Archive for the ‘derek jeter’ tag

Are the Nats really in the mix for Japanese superstar Ohtani? Photo via cbssports.com

As many others have noticed … there isn’t a heck of a lot going on right now in the “hot stove” season. But given where we are in the regular off-season calendar, lets bang out a couple of topics.

First: the Non-tender deadline.

For the first time in an awful long time, the Nats have no real obvious non-tender candidates on their roster. They entered the off-season with just four arbitration-eligible players and they are all set to be crucial pieces for 2018:

Bryce Harper technically would have been arb-eligible but signed away his 4th year for north of $21M.

Anthony Rendon comes off easily his finest season as a pro (his numbers across the board eclipse his 2014 5th place MVP season) and he should be in line to more than double his $5.8M 2017 salary.

Tanner Roark struggled in 2017 (… perhaps caused/aided by the frequently-seen WBC hangover?) but is still slated to be our 4th starter on a rotation that doesn’t currently have a fifth and should be in line for about an $8M payday.

Michael Taylor has established himself as one of the premier defensive center fielders in the game, will be set to start in 2018, and faces arbitration for the first time (likely to get around a $2.5M check).

Compare this to previous non-tender years (with links to non-tender specific posts from years past):

2016: we non-tendered Ben Revere, waived Aaron Barrett before having to make the NT decision, and declined Yusmeiro Petit‘s option as a way of “non-tendering” him.

2015: we non-tendered Craig Stammen, but kept NT candidates Jose Lobaton and Tyler Moore (eventually trading Moore after waiving him at the end of spring training).

2014: we did not non-tender anyone, though a couple weeks later traded NT candidate Ross Detwiler to Texas for two guys who never really panned out for us (Chris Bostick and Abel de los Santos).

2013: we did not non-tender anyone, only Ross Ohlendorf was a candidate, and in retrospect he probably should have been NT’d since he didn’t throw a pitch for the Nationals in 2014.

2012: we non-tendered three guys (Jesus Flores, Tom Gorzelanny, John Lannan) in the face of a huge amount of arbitration players (10).

2010: we non-tendered Chien-Ming Wang, Wil Nieves, Joel Peralta. We also outrighted 5 guys prior to the NT deadline, DFA’d two more in December, and DFA/dreleased four more guys prior to Spring training in a very busy off-season.

2009: we non-tendered Scott Olsen, Mike MacDougal

2008: we non-tendered Tim Redding, now the Pitching coach for our Auburn Short-A team, so I guess there was no hard feelings there

2007: we non-tendered Nook Logan, Mike O’Conner.

2006: we non-tendered or declined options for Ryan Drese, Brian Lawrence, Zach Day (it might have only been Day who was officially non-tendered)

2005: we non-tendered Carlos Baerga, Preston Wilson, Junior Spivey.

That’s a long trip down random memory lane for marginal Nationals players from yesteryear.

The FA market in general seems to be held up by two major names: Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani. Jeff Passan argues there’s other reasons (see this link) for the lack of movement, but one has to think the big names are a big part of it. I also believe that this year’s “crop” of FAs is … well kind of underwhelming. Here’s Passan’s ranking of FAs: his biggest names past Ohtani are Yu Darvish (who just sucked in the post-season, is coming off TJ surgery and doesn’t rate as the “Ace” he once was), J.D. Martinez (who blew up in 2017 but who has normally gotten a lot of his value from defense and he’s not getting any younger), Eric Hosmer (a 1B only guy, even if he’s really good, who seems like a safe bet to get over-pad and age badly) and Jake Arrieta (who has taken a step backwards from his Cy Young win and has already entered his decline years). Plus, the “price” for signing some of these QO-attached guys (Hosmer, Arrieta plus other top-10 FAs like Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Wade Davis) will be quite steep for big-market and/or Luxury tax teams like our own Washington Nationals.

Frankly, between the higher price of forced loss of picks due to our over-spending last season, our current payroll tightness (we seem to only have about $17M to spend to stay under the tax for all of next year) and the underwhelming lot of available players … i don’t see us really participating in this year’s sweepstakes. Do we want to pony up for a middling 5th starter type like Jaime Garcia at the likely going price of $10M/year? Or roll the dice with a MLFA like we did with some success last year (Edwin Jackson, Jacob Taylor). Or just stay inhouse and let Erick Fedde continue to mature every 5th day on the mound?

Stanton, according to the tea-leaves i’m reading this week, seems like he’s heading to San Francisco, who is in desperate need for offense, outfielders and a franchise makeover after last year’s debacle. Stanton could fit all three. Which is great for him (he’s born and raised in California and would be joining a franchise that, despite its 2017 season, still has 3 WS titles in the last decade and a slew of marquee players to build around), great for the Nats (getting him out of the division), great for the “franchise” of Miami (who rids themselves of perhaps the 2nd worst contract in baseball behind Albert Pujols‘ and lets them get a relatively clean slate to start over for the new franchise ownership group), and of course awful for the “fans” of Miami, who thought they were finally getting rid of one of the worst owners in professional sports only to get slapped in the face with comical missteps by the new Derek Jeter-led ownership group, who managed to embarrass themselves in the most ridiculous way (by firing ceremonial Marlins legends for no good reason) early and then put themselves on the defensive needlessly by immediately crying poor and saying that they needed to pare payroll within a few days of taking over. If i was a Miami fan I wouldn’t know whether to laugh or cry.

I also think its notable that the first ex-Nat ranked on Passan’s list comes in at #43; the “ripe for regression” Matt Albers. Brandon Knitzler comes soon after him (who could be a re-signing candidate frankly for us, to put the “law firm” back together), then you have to get all the way down to #62 to find Jayson Werth. As compared to next off-season, when the Nats will have the #1 guy on the list.

Coming back to Ohtani (I’m going with the h in the name since after much research that’s what seems like the right way to spell it) ….

First things first: I desperately hope the Nats get him. Anyone who thinks that they’re better off without Ohtani is a fool; he’s set to become one of the biggest bargains in baseball. For the small price of a $20M posting fee, you get a guy who throws 100, is an 80 runner, and hits the crap out of the ball. For a miniscule bonus figure (the max any team has seems to be about $3.5M; the Nats only have $300k) and then a MLB min contract. Its just amazing. His presence could literally change the face of a franchise for a decade for about the same amount of money we will have paid Gio Gonzalez this year and next. I doubt he picks us though; it seems more likely he picks either a major market team (NY, Boston) on the east coast or (more likely) one of the west coast teams for better proximity to Japan and a larger Asian native market (LA, SF, Seattle). But its all speculation.

Hey, did I mention that the Nats need both another starter AND a lefty-bat off the bench, right now?? Ohtani would be perfect!

Side Note: why the heck is he coming over now and subjecting himself to MLB minimum contracts and arbitration?? He’s literally leaving $100M on the table by not waiting just two years and coming over un-restricted. I just cannot believe he’s doing this and costing himself so much money. I get the lip service comments about wanting to challenge himself, yadda yadda, but when there’s literally 9 figures of money on the table, I just don’t understand the decision. He’s projected to be better than Daisuke Matsuzaka, better than Darvish, both of whom got many times more money (Dice-K got $52M to him, $103M in total cost plus his posting fee), while Darvish got $60M to him and cost the Rangers $111M total with posting fee). It seems crazy.

Can’t wait to see where he goes, and I can’t wait to see if he’s the real deal.

In Keith Law‘s chat yesterday, someone asked him about his reaction to Gold Glove awards being announced and he said something along the lines of “I have no more Fs to give.”

(btw: someone named “Wally” asked a Nats question at the very beginning … same as our own Wally?)

Anyway, its not hard to understand Law’s stance on the awards: they’re often given more based on reputation than accomplishment on the field, they’re often tied to a player’s offense (inexplicably, since its a defensive award), and we’ve had more than a few ridiculous awards in years past (see Derek Jeter in his waning SS years, or the year Rafael Palmeiro got one for “playing” 1B when he mostly DH’d).

However; the voting has gotten much better the past few years; last year there wasn’t a single Gold Glove award that I thought was “fishy.” Every guy who got an award last year was a deserving winner and you could make a compelling argument for them.

7 of the 9 non-utility Fielding Bible winners also got Gold Gloves. They gave the P to Keuchel as I thought the gold glove should have gone, and they gave LF to Brett Gardner over Alex Gordon in what was probably a toss-up. But otherwise well done here.

This is the stat that shows that Rendon is the 2nd best defensive player in the game, by the way. And that Taylor was the best CF in the National League, barely trailing Byron Buxton by a tenth of a point.

Just 7 of the 16 GG winners were leaders by this metric, which is either an indictment of the metric or the gold glove selections this year. In case you couldn’t tell, you can guess which picks I trust more.

I like UZR/150; it is the defensive stat I most frequently mention because it is mostly about a player’s range. Generally speaking everyone can hit a ball hit right to them; i want a guy who can make plays out of their “zone.” UZR/150 this year predicted just 5 of the 14 GG winners … but in my estimation identified fully 13 of the 14 most deserving winners. So perhaps my bias shows through here.

FRAA is Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric and was the worst performing predictor of both actual GG awards and those that I thought should have won. Furthermore it spit out some truly random names (David Freese as leading NL 3B??). So i’d probably put it as the least reliable defensive metric right now.

Technically “Total Zone Total Fielding runs above average” or the “rTOT” Baseball-reference.com stat. It did a decent job predicting the GGs (50%) but also spit out some really random names (Elvis Andrus over Andrelton Simmons??) that make it a bit squirrelly to trust.

So, another year passes of Gold Gloves. None of these defensive metrics are infallible, which is kind of why the three major flavors of WAR often disagree on positional players (each uses a different one of these defensive stats to measure value). But looking across the landscape of the measurements it isn’t hard to see trends and patterns for who was the most deserving at each position.

What a World Series! I predicted Houston would win in 6 primarily because I thought Kershaw would get the series back to LA by winning Game 5, but Verlander would shut it down in the 6th game. Didn’t quite happen that way, with both guys pitching well but not getting the result that night. In the end, I honestly think the better team won this series, and Houston’s bottoming-out gambit has now paid off with the first title in their existence.

What i’m wondering about now is this: two of these World Series games we just saw were just amazingly good games, featuring massive comebacks, late inning heroics, clutch homers, walk-off hits.

Where, if anywhere, do they rank in the pantheon of “Greatest Games?”

I like to use as a jumping off point the excellent MLB.tv series “MLB’s 20 Greatest Games.” A link to their web page with videos of each game is here. The list is here:

No. 20: May 17, 1979: Phillies @ Cubs; Phils, Cubs combine for 45 runs. This is the only regular season game on the list and for good reason; the first inning alone had 13 runs scored.

No. 19: Oct. 4, 2003: Giants @ Marlins; Ivan Rodriguez tags out Eric Snow as he tries to bulldoze Pudge at the plate to end the game and send the Marlins to the World Series.

No. 13: Oct. 26, 1997: Indians @ Marlins; Edgar Renteria wins it for Fish in a World Series game 7 classic.

No. 12: Oct. 31, 2001: D-backs @ Yankees; Tino Martinez ties it with a 2-out, 2-run homer in the bottom of the 9th and Derek Jeter hits first November homer and earns himself the nickname for which he’s continued to be known.

No. 10: Oct. 15, 1988: Athletics @ Dodgers; Injured slugger Kirk Gibson hits a pinch hit walk-off home run off of the dominant Dennis Eckersley for one of the most magical home runs in baseball history.

No. 3: Oct. 25, 1986: Red Sox @ Mets; Probably the most “infamous” game of all time, especially to Boston fans, as Bill Buckner‘s error follows a series of mishaps by the Red Sox pitching staff to turn a 10th inning 2 run lead into a game 6 loss.

No. 2: Oct. 27, 1991: Braves @ Twins; Jack Morris‘ seminal performance; a 1-0 10 inning shutout over the Braves in perhaps the best Game 7 of any World Series ever.

No. 1: Oct. 21, 1975: Reds @ Red Sox; the game forever known for Carlton Fisk waving his walk-off homer fair, but which should be known for the unbelievably clutch Bernie Carbo 8th inning homer to tie the game and enable the extra inning fireworks.

That’s a great list. It technically should have been titled “Greatest 20 games of the last half century” since it skipped the classic 1960 Mazeroski game.

Since this series debuted, we’ve seen two really good post season games that I thought should be considered

2011 Game 6: I thought it was a top 5 game when I saw it live, and i’d put it 4th or so on the above list.

2016 Game 7: I thought it was perhaps in the 5-10 range, putting it just after the Bartman game at #8 in the above list.

Well, where do you possibly put the two crazy games we just saw in this series?

2017 Game 2: Houston scores in the 8th and 9th to push the game to Extras, blasts two solo homers in the 10th only to have LA tie the game in the bottom of the 10th. Eventual MVP Springer blasts another homer in the 11th, and LA counters in the bottom of the 11th but falls short. 7 of the 13 runs scored in the game occurred in the extra innings and the teams set a WS record hitting 8 combined homers.

First off; were these truly “great games?” One game was 7-6, the other was 13-12. Both featured a ton of hitting and offense obviously, but not a ton of good pitching necessarily. LA used NINE pitchers in Game 2, and the teams combined to use 14 pitchers in game 5 with neither starter getting out of the 5th. Game 5 in particular featured both team’s Aces (Kershaw and Keuchel), both former Cy Young winners who both got blasted, and both team’s best reliever (Jansen and Devenski) got hit hard as well. Some people think a “great game” includes transcendent performances on both sides of the ball, and both of these games were not the case.

Would you put either game into the above list? I would. I’d probably choose Game 2 over Game 5 given its late-inning heroics and slightly better pitching, and I’d probably put it in the 15-20 range in the above list.

Zobrist’s hit won it for the Cubs, and won him the series MVP award. Photo via bleachereport

So, we just saw a pretty darn good World Series, culminating in a very good Game 7. The Cubs win was obviously historic; no need to repeat all the other post-game analysis going on to that end.

The question here is; where does Game 7 rank historically? We all suffer from recency bias, and many (most) of us were not around for such other classic games (1924 World Series game 7 going 12 innings and Walter Johnson pitching 4 innings on one day’s rest, 1960 game 7 featuring Mazeroski‘s famous walk-off homer, or Bobby Thompson‘s “Shot Heard ‘Round the World” to win the 1951 NL Pennant). The normally sane Jayson Stark just posted that 2016’s Game 7 was “the Greatest ever game” in the long history of the sport.

However, I’m skeptical of calling *anything* that just happened, the best ever, so quickly after it ended.

On the “plus” side for its lofty status; Game 7 featured two long suffering franchises and was historic just on its own because of it. It was a Game 7, which only happens about one in every four Series. It went into extra innings, only the fifth time that’d ever happened. It featured a clutch and improbable late inning comeback to tie a game that seemed out of reach (Rajai Davis‘ 8th inning homer off of Aroldis Chapman), and it ended with the tying run on base and the winning run at the plate for nail-biting.

On the “negative” side; it was a sloppy game (4 errors, 3 by the winning side) that featured decidedly “un-clutch” pitching performances by the two marquee relievers (Chapman and Andrew Miller), both patently exhausted from their workloads this post-season. Neither starter even qualified for a decision. The pitching in general was substandard; the teams combined for 24 hits and 15 runs; this is a far cry from Jack Morris‘ 10-inning shutout in the 1991 Game 7. And thanks to the continuing trend of endless delays caused by interminable mound visits and bullpen switches, the game time (not even accounting for the rain delay) was nearly 4 and a half hours.

So, for me, no this wasn’t the greatest ever game. But it was still darn good. How good?

No. 13: Oct. 26, 1997: Indians @ Marlins; Edgar Renteria wins it for Fish in a World Series game 7 classic.

No. 12: Oct. 31, 2001: D-backs @ Yankees; Tino Martinez ties it with a 2-out, 2-run homer in the bottom of the 9th and Derek Jeter hits first November homer and earns himself the nickname for which he’s continued to be known.

No. 10: Oct. 15, 1988: Athletics @ Dodgers; Injured slugger Kirk Gibson hits a pinch hit walk-off home run off of the dominant Dennis Eckersley for one of the most magical home runs in baseball history.

No. 8: Oct. 12, 1986: Red Sox @ Angels; Dave Henderson hits an improbable 3-run homer in the 9th to help Boston come back from 1-out away from elimination to eventually beat the Angels in the 86 ALCS.

No. 7: Oct. 14, 2003: Marlins @ Cubs; The infamous Steve Bartman game, which overshadowed an utter collapse by Mark Prior, Alex Gonzalez, the Cubs bullpen AND Kerry Wood the following day to continue the Cubs curse that lasted … until this week.

No. 3: Oct. 25, 1986: Red Sox @ Mets; Probably the most “infamous” game of all time, especially to Boston fans, as Bill Buckner‘s error follows a series of mishaps by the Red Sox pitching staff to turn a 10th inning 2 run lead into a game 6 loss.

No. 2: Oct. 27, 1991: Braves @ Twins; Jack Morris‘ seminal performance; a 1-0 10 inning shutout over the Braves in perhaps the best Game 7 of any World Series ever.

No. 1: Oct. 21, 1975: Reds @ Red Sox; the game forever known for Carlton Fisk waving his walk-off homer fair, but which should be known for the unbelievably clutch Bernie Carbo 8th inning homer to tie the game and enable the extra inning fireworks.

I put 2011 Game 6 fourth, just after the top 3 games above. I think I rank 2016’s Game 7 slightly behind it, perhaps (and this would be rather ironic) just before or just after the Bartman game. I think the top three games on this list are so iconic that they’d be hardpressed to beat, and we quickly forget just how amazing the 2011 game 6 was in terms of multiple improbable comebacks.

What say you? How great do you think Game 7 was earlier this week? Am I under-rating it? Over-rating i?

Third year running for this post, looking at the announced winners of the Gold Gloves for 2015 and comparing them to the Fielding Bible winners for 2015 and the leaders of various defensive metrics available to us. For a glossary of the metrics, see the end of the post.

So, Andrelton Simmons is a unanimous choice of a blue-ribbon panel yet doesn’t win the Gold Glove? Likewise, Kinsler and Posey are selected but neither got the Gold Glove. Simmons is probably the biggest mistake in the Gold Glove awards, but lets dig into the stats to see what happened.

Now lets start in with the defensive metrics. First: UZR/150.

Pos

AL UZR/150

NL UZR/150

C

n/a

n/a

1B

Mitch Moreland, Tex (6.4)

Brandon Belt, SF (10.7)

2B

Ian Kinsler, Det (6.7)

Dee Gordon, Mia (6.0)

SS

J.J. Hardy, Bal (10.1)

Adeiny Hechavarria, Mia (17.7)

3B

Adrian Beltre, Tex (13.0)

Matt Duffy, SF (12.7)

LF

Yoenis Cespedes (22.2)

Starling Marte, Pit (12.1)

CF

Kevin Kiermaier, TB (42)

A.J. Pollack, Ari (14)

RF

Kole Calhoun, LAA (12.1)

Jason Heyward, Stl (22.3)

P

n/a

n/a

We see some consistency here with the players named in the Gold Gloves and/or the Fielding Bible awards. 7 of the 14 leaders here also won Gold Gloves, and 4 of the 10 leaders here won Fielding Bible awards. You’re going to see the same outfield names over and over; that’s how dominant this selection of outfielders were this year. Ian Kinsler represents one of the bigger snubs in the Gold Glove awards, as we’re about to see.

Here’s Defensive Runs Saved

Pos

AL DRS

NL DRS

C

1B

Adam Lind, Mil (5)

Paul Goldschmidt, Ari (18)

2B

Ian Kinsler, Det (19)

Dee Gordon, Mia (13)

SS

Didi Gregorius (5)

Andrelton Simmons, ATL (25)

3B

Adrian Beltre, Tex (18)

Nolan Arenado, Col (18)

LF

Yoenis Cespedes (15)

Starling Marte, Pit (24)

CF

Kevin Kiermaier, TB (40.7)

Billy Hamilton, Cin (18.8)

RF

Kole Calhoun, LAA (6)

Jason Heyward, Stl (22)

P

Dallas Keuchel, HOU (13)

Zack Greinke, LAD (9)

These are definitely closer to the Gold Gloves. 10 of the 16 league leaders here also won GGs. A note here; the Kiermaier DRS figure is apparently the highest ever recorded by a fielder in a single season. Simmons’ 25 DRS dwarfed the field, as does his overall DRS figure over the last three years, more evidence that the GG award to Crawford was poor.

Here’s FRAA:

Pos

AL FRAA

NL FRAA

C

Francisco Cervelli, NYY (11.7)

Yasmani Grandal (20.9)

1B

Mark Canha, Oak (5.8)

Paul Goldschmidt, Ari (13.0)

2B

Roughned Odor, Tex (5.0)

Danny Espinosa (10.7)

SS

Elvis Andrus, Tex (10.3)

Jean Segura (10.3)

3B

Manny Machado, Bal (20.3)

Nolan Arenado, Col (20.6)

LF

Kevin Pillar, Tor (14.3)

Yoenis Cespedes (5.2)

CF

Kevin Kiermaier, TB (24.6)

Ender Inciarte, Ari (5.9)

RF

Kole Calhoun, LAA (9.5)

Jason Heyward, Stl (11.4)

P

Dallas Keuchel, HOU (10.4)

Jake Arrieta, Chc (7.4)

Just 8 of the 18 leaders in this stat also won Gold Gloves, and the presence especially of the Nats’ own Danny Espinosa really calls this stat into question. How is Espinosa, a part time player, the league leader here in a year where there were several other good 2nd basemen?

Lastly, Total Zone

Pos

AL Total Zone Total Fielding

NL Total Zone Total Fielding

C

James McCann, Cle (11)

Wilson Ramos, Was (11)

1B

Mike Napoli (10)

Adrian Gonzalez, LAD (16)

2B

Jose Altuve, Hou (13)

Neil Walker, Pit (7)

SS

Francisco Lindor, Cle (14)

Brandon Crawford, SF (19)

3B

Evan Longoria, TB (14)

Jake Lamb, Ari (10)

LF

Yoenis Cespedes, Det (11)

Christian Yelich, Mia (12)

CF

Kevin Kiermaier, TB (24)

A.J. Pollack, Ari (20)

RF

Kole Calhoun, LAA (17)

Ichiro Suzuki, Mia (14)

P

Its easy to see w here some of the finalists came from in the GG awards, since this is the only list that GG finalist Wilson Ramos appears on. Its also the only place where GG winners Altuve and Crawford appear. Just 6 of these 18 leaders also won GGs, meaning its the least accurate predictor of GG winners. And one of the leaders in practically every other category (Heyward) is supplanted by the 40-yr old Suzuki in these stats. Makes you wonder.

Conclusion:

It seems to me that the “statistical”component of the Gold Gloves is using the wrong stats (FRAA and/or TZ), and that it should be using DRS and UZR/150. Even so, as noted elsewhere, the Gold Gloves are doing a much, much better job selecting the award winners on a whole, and the days of awarding them to the likes of Derek Jeter or Rafael Palmeiro seem long gone.

Glossary of these various stats and awards

Gold Gloves: awarded annually (presented by Rawlings) and are a combination of Manager/Coach voting and a “statistical component.” This component is provided by SABR and is now 25% of the voting. I cannot find details on what comprises this statistical component, but based on the finalists announced I strongly believe it is related to the Total Zone fielding measurements.

Fielding Bible Awards: Bill James-driven website that uses a committee of national writers to select the winners. The site is here and you can read about their methodology and panel members.

UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating, defined well here at fangraphs, attempts to be a comprehensive measure of how many batted balls are turned to outs for a particular fielder, then adjusted by errors, arm and other factors. UZR/150 standardizes the counting stat UZR to an average across 150 games to allow apples-to-apples comparisons of players who play different numbers of games in a season.

DRS; Defensive Runs Saved, defined well here at Fangraphs, focuses more on pure “runs saved” from all possible defensive plays that involve a fielder. It seems to measure more things that UZR and sometimes disagrees with UZR.

FRAA: Fielding Runs Above Average, defined here at Baseball Prospectus. A measure that attempts to remove the bias present in zone-based data and also tries to factor in the tendencies of the pitcher on the mound (ground-ball guy, fly-ball guy, etc).

Total Zone: defined here at Baseball-reference.com. A different “total defense” measurement incorporating all the various defensive data available, including catcher data, zone fielding, errors, arm, etc.

Q: Do you see Trea Turner as a future leadoff hitter for the Nationals? If so, when? Ian Desmond has one year left on his contract, so I have to think the front office is counting on his rising through the Minor Leagues quickly like Anthony Rendon.

A: Yes, I can see Trea Turner as a lead-off hitter in the majors. Blazing speed (some scouts have rated his speed at 80 on the 20-80 scale … which is a real rarity), excellent bat skills during his 3 years at NC State (a career college slash line of .342/.429/.507 playing in the nation’s toughest baseball conference), and in short sample sizes in the pros he’s got good OBP numbers. Everything you want in a lead-off guy. In college he had power (8 homers in 54 games his junior year playing with BBCOR bat, 2nd in the ACC); that’s a nice combination if it translates to the pros.

The question I have about Turner is whether he can stick at short. Or, more to the point, if he’ll be a good enough shortstop to appease the defensive-minded Mike Rizzo. All the scouting reports I’ve seen say the same thing: good fielder, great range … and an iffy arm that may push him to second. Well, you have to think Rizzo acquired a guy like Turner specifically because he thinks Turner *can* stick at short, and is a ready-made replacement for Desmond. Otherwise; why get him? Its a heck of a lot easier to find a second baseman than a shortstop in this league (current issues replacing Danny Espinosa notwithstanding).

Can Turner be a fast riser? Well, he’s not nearly as accomplished a college player as Anthony Rendon (who, lets not forget, was College Player of the year as a sophomore). Rendon ended his first pro season in AA and hit his way to the majors permanently by June of the following year. That’s a pretty amazing trajectory. And it included lost time to injury. Turner ended his first pro season in low-A by way of comparison, and needs a two-level jump in 2015 to have a shot at a 2016 debut, and a 2-level jump next year is going to be severely hampered by the fact that he’s likely to be languishing in San Diego’s spring training facility until June, when he can officially be traded. He’s losing a half of year of development time most likely. So, late 2016 to me is a more realistic goal, if everything goes well.

Meanwhile, that leaves a gap in the shortstop coverage if Ian Desmond leaves. Here’s a thought; if Desmond leaves in FA after 2015, you put Espinosa back at his natural shortstop position, find a second baseman (Dan Uggla anyone? ) and then wait for Turner to arrive. If Turner can play short, so be it. If he can’t, you put in at 2nd. I like that plan.

Ladson says the Nats have “been quiet” on Turner since he’s not technically a Nationals player; makes sense; you wouldn’t want tampering charges.

Q: How is Desmond not locked up, or even the No. 1 priority? I understand Jordan Zimmermann is a staff ace, but shortstop is a prime position and every team desires one. Desmond is one of the best in baseball and can’t be replaced.

A: Because Desmond took a step back both offensively (from a 113 to a 103 OPS+) and defensively (UZR/150 from 4.4 to 0.1) in 2014 from the previous year. I’d be slightly hesitant too. I used to think that Elvis Andrus‘s contract was a fair comp for Desmond. But now it looks like the Andrus contract was actually a massive over-pay, and valuing Desmond may be more difficult than we thought.

When I think about roster construction, you go up “the spine” of the team. Catcher, Pitchers, Short and Center Field. Those are the key positions to lock up with quality players. So no arguments that Desmond and Shortstop in general are huge priorities. But now the problem becomes this: is Desmond’s 2014 decline a one-off or a concern? And, what is he worth? If you think Andrus is an overpay ($15M a year through 2022), and if Troy Tulowitzki is the best offensive shortstop in the game (at $20M/year for the next four years with annual injury issues), then where does Desmond fit in? Some sampling of shortstop contracts: J.J. Hardy is 3/yrs/$40M for AAV of about $14M/year. Jose Reyes makes $22M/year for the next three years, which seems rather high to me. Jimmy Rollins is on an $11M option for 2015. Jhonny Peralta is on a 4yr/$53M deal for an AAV of about $13M. So clearly the market is at least $15M/year for a quality shortstop.

Based on who the Nats have in the pipeline at short (past Turner … practically nobody) and based on who projects to be available in FA in 2016 (also practically nobody), yes I think Desmond is a priority. My guess is that the front office is juggling all sorts of stuff right now, and just hasn’t come to any conclusions. I’d be perfectly comfortable offering him 5 to 6 years at an AAV of $15M (6yrs/$90M) with a club option; that’s clearly not enough as the team has offered him *more* than that in the past apparently and he’s turned it down. He’s entering his age 29 season; that’d lock him up through his age 34 season … a gamble for a shortstop, but a good one for a franchise player who has been with the organization since he was 18. I would have postulated that perhaps Desmond (with his Florida ties and the heavy Yankees presence down there) wanted to slide into the vacated Derek Jeter spot … but the Yankees just acquired a long term SS in Didi Gregorius, so maybe Desmond’s agent and him are strategizing. Besides; Washington seems like a better positioned franchise right now than the Yankees (as hard as that is to write) for post-season positioning.

Ladson points out the Nats offered Desmond in excess of $100m and then cryptically says “lets see what happens in the next few weeks.”

Q: I noticed Rafael Furcal is a free agent. Might the Nats sign him as a veteran middle-infield stopgap until Turner and Wilmer Difo are ready?

A: Rafael Furcal?! Wow,that’s a heck of a pull. You mean the same Furcal who has played in a grand total of 9 major league games since 2012 thanks to injuries and will be 37 next season? He hasn’t played a full season of injury-free baseball since 2009. Why would we possibly consider this guy? No way; there’s younger, more reliable middle infield options out there. Difo, by the way, played in low-A last year. I don’t think we’re seeing him anytime soon. Mid 2017 maybe? Ladson says that Furcal *tore* his hamstring in Winter Ball; geeze. He also states the obvious; we’ll see lots of Dan Uggla and that we should trade for Ben Zobrist. Thanks for the scoops there, Bill.

Q: What are your predictions as to how the NL East will stack up in 2015, especially given personnel changes and improved health throughout the division?

A: Nats win the division with 90 wins. Marlins 2nd with like an 83-79 record. Mets in 3rd at about .500. Braves in 4th at about 75 wins. Phillies last place, with somewhere in the 68 range of wins. Ladson seems to go Nats-Marlins-Mets too.

Q: I’m frustrated by Desmond’s strikeouts. If he could make contact for 20 percent of his strikeouts, he would be all world. What can the Nats do to help him make more consistent contact — just patience at the plate for better pitch selection?

A: Welcome to modern baseball. Swing for the fences all the time; strikeouts be damned. Nobody remembers you struck out 180 times when you hit 20+ dingers from the short-stop position. Now … strike out 122 times in 119 games and hit .220? Then you’re in trouble, Mr. Espinosa. As far as the question goes; maybe you park Desmond further down the order, tell him he’s not a run producer any more and tell him to focus less on homers, more on solid contact. Maybe that helps. Maybe not; the Nats offense is seemingly always a man down, which means Desmond is always pushed into a 3-4-5 hole spot, where he’s looking to drive in runs. I expect similar numbers in 2015. Ladson reminds us that Desmond had the flu last year.

Alex Gordon was one of the best defensive players in baseball, by any measure in 2014. photo 365rundown.com

Last year, I created a little spreadsheet upon the announcement of the Gold Glove winners, to see how they compared to various defensive metric leaders (2013 xls link here). And I threw in the “Fielding Bible” award winners, since that has now taken over as the “accepted” list of the year’s best defensive players, thanks to the Gold Gloves continuing to pick inexplicable players (this year’s repeat “I cannot believe he won” player again being Adam Jones). But, as we’ve seen, the Gold Gloves are getting better, and the days of picking someone like a statue-esque Derek Jeter and/or a nearly permanent DH in Rafael Palmeiro seem to now be over.

So, now that we’ve announced the 2014 Gold Glove winners, lets also look at the league leaders in various defensive metrics.

First, your 2014 Gold Glove winners: bold are also Fielding Bible winners, and red are the most egregiously bad selections.

Pos

AL GG Winner

NL GG Winner

C

Salvator Perez, CLE

Yadier Molina, STL

1B

Eric Hosmer, KC

Adrian Gonzalez, LAD

2B

Dustin Pedroia, BOS

DJ LeMahieu, COL

SS

J.J. Hardy, BAL

Andrelton Simmons, ATL

3B

Kyle Seager, SEA

Nolan Arenado, COL

LF

Alex Gordon, KC

Christian Yelich, MIA

CF

Adam Jones, BAL

Juan Lagares, NYM

RF

Nick Markakis, BAL

Jason Heyward, ATL

P

Dallas Keuchel, HOU

Zack Greinke, LAD

As with last year, the league still remains obsessed with Adam Jones despite his possessing negative defensive rankings across the board. Kyle Seager wasn’t “bad” but wasn’t nearly as deserving as Josh Donaldson. The only other real “bad” selection was Molina, not because he’s not a great defensive catcher (he is), but because he missed a ton of time and there were better options in the NL this year (namely, Jonathan Lucroy). Otherwise every Gold Glove winner listed here was deserving.

Here’s the 2014 Fielding Bible Awards, which (if you’re not aware) is a Bill James-driven website that uses a committee of national writers to select the winners (the site is here and you can read about their methodology). Bolded are also GG winners:

Pos

2014 Fielding Bible Winner

C

Jonathan Lucroy, MIL

1B

Adrian Gonzalez, LAD

2B

Dustin Pedroia, BOS (repeat)

SS

Andrelton Simmons, ATL (repeat)

3B

Josh Donaldson, OAK

LF

Alex Gordon, KC (repeat)

CF

Juan Lagares, NYM

RF

Jason Heyward, ATL

P

Dallas Keuchel, HOU

Util

Lorenzo Cain, KC

They selected Lucroy over Molina, and Donaldson over Seager. They’ve also added a 10th position for “Utility,” to recognize the excellent work of Lorenzo Cain playing multiple outfield positions.

Now, here’s the league leaders by various defensive stats. The links to get any of these leaderboards are in the Google xls. First: UZR/150.

Pos

AL UZR/150

NL UZR/150

C

1B

Albert Pujols, LAA (9.3)

Anthony Rizzo, CHC (8.2)

2B

Dustin Pedroia, BOS (20.4)

DJ LeMahieu, COL (11.0)

SS

J.J. Hardy, BAL (15.4)

Andrelton Simmons, ATL (18.4)

3B

Josh Donaldson, OAK (13.3)

Todd Frazier, CIN (8.9)

LF

Alex Gordon, KC (22.6)

Christian Yelich, MIA (14.1)

CF

Jackie Bradley JR, BOS (22.6)

Juan Lagares, NYM (25.3)

RF

Nori Aoki, KC (7.7)

Jason Heyward, ATL (20.5)

P

I like UZR as a measure and use it often. UZR/150 somewhat standardizes the scores across a 150-game average to represent the figure for a full-season for apples-to-apples comparisons. A good number of these leaders also earned Gold Gloves and/or Fielding Bible awards. Josh Donaldson was the clear AL 3B leader. Otherwise there’s a lot of similarities to the lists we’ve already seen. I was surprised as heck to see Albert Pujols on this leader board.

For a quick point of reference to the above scores, the BEST UZR/150 of any Nationals player this year was Anthony Rendon‘s uZR/150 of 4.6 while playing 3B. Span and LaRoche (our two GG finalists) both scored *negative* UZR/150 scores … perhaps an indictment of their nominations in general as being based on reputation and not actual on-field performance this year.

Next: DRS; Defensive Runs Saved. Some like this stat a lot; I struggle with it because single plays (like an outfielder reaching over the wall to take away a homer) result in huge swings in the numbers on plays that aren’t necessarily the hardest to make.

Pos

AL DRS

NL DRS

C

1B

Chris Davis, BAL (8)

Adrian Gonzalez, LAD (12)

2B

Ian Kinsler, DET (20)

DJ LeMahieu, COL (16)

SS

J.J. Hardy, BAL (10)

Andrelton Simmons, ATL (28)

3B

Josh Donaldson, OAK (20)

Nolan Arenado, COL (16)

LF

Alex Gordon, KC (27)

Christian Yelich, MIA (13)

CF

Leonys Martin, TEX (15)

Juan Lagares, NYM (28)

RF

Kole Calhoun, LAA (2)

Jason Heyward, ATL (32)

P

Dustin Pedroia had one of the highest UZR/150 ratings in the league … but he was not the top-rated 2nd baseman in the AL. We have our third different AL center fielder in three lists. Otherwise this is a pretty good list.

Next: FRAA: Fielding Runs Above Average, a Baseball Prospectus measure that attempts to remove the bias present in zone-based data and also tries to factor in the tendencies of the pitcher on the mound (ground-ball guy, fly-ball guy,

Pos

AL FRAA

NL FRAA

C

1B

Steve Pearce, BAL (7.7)

Adrian Gonzalez, LAD (11.4)

2B

Jason Kipnis, CLE (9.5)

Chase Utley, PHI (6.9)

SS

Alexei Ramierez, CWS (8.1)

Jean Segura, MIL (23.6)

3B

Kyle Seager, SEA (20.5)

Nolan Arenado, COL (14.3)

LF

Alex Gordon, KC (12.2)

Khris Davis, MIL (6.6)

CF

Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY (12.0)

Ender Inciarte, ARI (11.0)

RF

Kevin Kiermaier, TB (8.3)

Jason Heyward, ATL (26.4)

P

Dallas Keuchel, HOU (6.7)

Tyson Ross, SD (3.7)

Interestingly, Jean Segura shines highly here (the supposed “best defensive player in the league” Andrelton Simmons only scored a 10.0 in FRAA). And this stat really favors the play of some random players: I had no idea who Kevin Kiermaier or Ender Inciarte were before doing this post, nor did I know what position they played.

Adam Jones scored a -8.1 FRAA; ranking him 1187th out of 1212 players for 2014. I’m not kidding. That’s how bad a selection for the Gold Glove Jones was.

Last stat: Baseball Reference’s Total Zone Fielding

Pos

AL Total Zone Total Fielding

NL Total Zone Total Fielding

C

Salvator Perez, CLE (12)

Wilson Ramos, WAS (8)

1B

Steve Pearce, BAL (13)

Justin Morneau, COL (11)

2B

Jonathan Schoop, BAL (16)

Anthony Rendon, WAS (12)

SS

J.J. Hardy, BAL (14)

Jordy Mercer, PIT (21)

3B

Kyle Seager, SEA (23)

Chase Headley, SD/NYY (18)

LF

Alex Gordon, KC (25)

Khris Davis, MIL (13)

CF

Lorenzo Cain, KC (18)

Billy Hamilton, CIN (14)

RF

Kevin Kiermaier, TB (12)

Jason Heyward, ATL (30)

P

Check it out: our own Wilson Ramos is on this list as the “leader” for the NL. Which, no offense to Ramos, makes you question at least the catcher rankings for this stat. Rendon also factors in for his partial season at 2B. But overall, this seems like the least reliable defensive stat.

As mentioned above, both our GG finalists (LaRoche and Span) seem to have been nominated on reputation only; neither of them appeared near the top on any of these statistical measures (unlike last year, when Span at least was a leader in Total Zone)

Did I miss any good defensive metrics? Do you have one you like more or less than these? I know there’s other stats out there; I can update this analysis with more of them.

So, how did the Gold Gloves do this year in selecting the most deserving winners? Pretty good. Alex Gordon was the AL leader for left fielders in every stat. I think they picked the two correct short stops. Catchers are difficult to measure. They absolutely screwed up the AL Center fielder (though to be fair; there were four statistical measures presented and four different AL center field leaders. Excellent defensive players who jump around (Lorenzo Cain, Ben Zobrist) make the awards somewhat challenging in some cases.

Jeter waves to the fans in his last home game. AP photo via abcnews.com

In June of 2013, in the midst of the Mariano Rivera retirement tour, I posted about one-team Hall of Famers and whether they were a dying breed in modern baseball. I figured that they were, that free agency had ruined the iconic “one team” home-town legend that we grew up knowing (especially in DC, with Cal RipkenJr. just up the road).

Now that Derek Jeter has wound down own his 2014 retirement tour, and the fact that we’ve seen some recent player movement that has eliminated some HoF candidates from being one-teamers, I thought this was a good topic to pick back up.

Here’s a quick glance at the landscape of one-team Hall of Fame candidates in the game today.

You have to think each of these three guys is a first ballot Hall of Famer, and each was a one-team guy.

Recently retired one-team Hall of Fame candidates: Todd Helton

I’m not sure Helton will make the Hall; if Larry Walker can’t get in because people think his numbers were inflated by Colorado’s home park, then Helton will be in the same boat. His embarrassing, ridiculous DUI arrest in mid 2013 while driving to get lottery tickets (despite the fact that he has more than $160M in career earnings just in salary alone) certainly won’t help his case.

If Verlander finished out his contract just being a 14-11 guy each year, he’d probably end up with 250 wins to go with his Cy Youngs, MVP, and Rookie awards. People will remember how good a hitter Mauer is when the time comes. Yes, I think Utley is on track to be a hall of famer; he’s been hurt for so long that people have forgotten how good he is. No I don’t think Rollins is a HoFamer right now, but he deserves to be in this category not the “borderline” category. Now, not all of these guys are guarantees to stick with their current teams (especially McCutchen, who eventually cashes in on a big contract that Pittsburgh cannot afford), but for now this is the list. Almost all of these guys managed to be excellent players for huge-payroll teams, meaning that they can easily finish their careers without having to move on.

Yeah I put Mike Trout on this list. Did you know that Trout already has as much career bWAR (28.3) by age 22 that Paul Konerko has for his entire 18-year career?? If Trout flamed out before the age of 30 he’d have the same case for inclusion that Sandy Koufax had, and he’d be in.

I cannot see the likes of Rollins, Utley or Pedroia moving teams at this point; do you view Pedroia as a HoFame candidate? He’s got more than 40 bWAR by the age of 30, an MVP vote, two rings and a bunch of All-Star and Golden Gloves.

These are all perennial all-stars, kings of the game, but none of them really screams out “Hall of Famer” right now. I may be slightly down on these guys (especially Hamels, who might be more than borderline right now). I’ve thrown Zimmermann in there thanks to his second stellar season in a row and his no-hitter; he’s likely to have another top 5 Cy Young finish in 2014 and with a few more such seasons he may put himself into the conversation. Of course, the odds are that he departs the Nats after 2015, so he may be off the list anyway.

I used to think Zimmerman was on track, especially after his monster 2009 season. Now I think he’s destined to be just a middle of the order solid hitter on teams with better hitters surrounding him. Think Scott Rolen. Braun may be one of the best players in the NL, but getting caught with PEDs not once but twice will prevent him from ever being enshrined no matter what kind of career he puts together. The fall-off of the San Francisco duo of pitchers speaks for itself; what the heck happened to Lincecum? Similarly, Weaver now looks like a guy who peaked during his expected peak years and now is settling into being a slightly better-than-average pitcher. Fair? Maybe not, but his ERA+ for 2014 is 104; not exactly Kershaw-territory.

I’m not saying all these guys are HoF locks right now, just that they’re top players who have made big moves recently to break up a string of years with one team.

Conclusion? I think there’s plenty of one-team candidates out there. So no, one-team hall-of-famers aren’t going to be a dying breed. Teams are locking up their marquee players to long-term contracts earlier and earlier, meaning the likelihood of having big-name one-team players present their cases to the voters is that much higher in the modern baseball climate.

Goose Goslin Most Valuable PlayerPlayer most valuable to the success of the Washington Nationals

Rendon

Werth

LaRoche

Walter Johnson Starting Pitcher of the YearExcellent performance as a starting pitcher

Zimmermann

Fister

Roark

Frederick “Firpo” Marberry Relief Pitcher of the YearExcellent performance as a relief pitcher

Storen

Clippard

Soriano

Sam Rice Hitter of the YearExcellence in all-around hitting, situational hitting and baserunning

Rendon

Span

Werth

Frank Howard Slugger of the YearExcellence in power hitting

LaRoche

Desmond

Rendon

Joe Judge Defensive Player of the YearExcellence in fielding

Rendon

Harper

Span

Mickey Vernon Comeback Player of the YearPlayer who overcame biggest obstacle in the preceding season to contribute on the field

Storen

Roark

Barrett

Josh Gibson Humanitarian Player of the YearPlayer who meritoriously gave of himself to the community

Zimmerman

Desmond

Ramos

Minor League Player of the Year Minor league player most destined for big league success

Souza

Taylor

Giolito

Award by Award:

Team MVP: Have to go with Rendon; easily leads the team in WAR (by a nearly 3-win margin in bWAR over Werth/Span in second place). Werth continues to steadily hold on to his skills and contribute well into his mid 30s, while LaRoche put up a great contract year performance.

Starter of the Year: No argument here: Zimmermann was the best starter on the year. Fister‘s advanced stats don’t like him (his FIP is above 4.00) but he gets results. And Roark remains the best “found gold” the Nats have had in terms of prospect matriculation since the likes of Brad Peacock.

Reliever of the Year: Storen‘s great bounce back year has to put him in the lead, followed closely behind by Clippard. Still think the Soriano acquisition was worth it? I have him 3rd here just by virtue of his first half … and because the rest of the relievers were either long guys (Stammen, Detwiler), matchup loogies (Blevins, Thornton) or guys who spent more time in AAA than the majors (Barrett, Treinen).

Hitter of the Year: Rendon, Werth obvious top 3 guys, but I like what Span‘s done this year in terms of jacking his average up. Another classic contract year performance.

Slugger of the year: I just went with the team leaders in homers 1-2-3. You would have thought that Harper would be here by now.

Defender of the year: looking at the various advanced stats, I ended up with Rendon for his excellent work at 2B and 3B, then Harper (an excellent UZR/150 in left on the year). Span has a negative UZR/150 in center on the year, but passes the eye test. I’ll be curious to see how he ends up looking in the other defensive metrics. So he gets 3rd place essentially because there’s not another regular who has a positive UZR/150 on the team.

Comeback player: Storen makes the most sense … his comeback has been two years in the making. Roark isn’t really a comeback guy as much as he’s a “making the most of his chances guy.” Neither is Barrett honestly; but there’s not a good example of someone who was hurt or really came out of nowhere to make this team better.

Humanitarian: Honestly I only know of two guys on the Nats who actively do humanitarian/charity stuff and that’s Zimmerman and Desmond.

Minor League Player of the Year. As discussed in the comments of another post recently, for me “Minor League Player of the Year” is a completely different list than the subtitle offered of “Minor league player most destined for big league success.” POTY for me this year went Souza, Taylor and Giolito, while the top 3 prospects in our system probably are Giolito, Cole and Taylor.

Additional Questions

1) Of the players on the current active roster (or DL), which players do you think will not be part of the organization next season?

I’m guessing the team declines Soriano’s option, non-tenders Ohlendorf, Mattheus and Detwiler, and DFAs Blevins after his poor season.

Of the positional players, the team won’t exercise its options on LaRoche or Span, will have to end up DFA-ing Solano (and perhaps others; I havn’t done my options analysis yet) due to having no more options, and will let veteran FAs Frandsen, Hairston and Schierholz hit free agency. I think Cabrera is going to command too much money for the team to realistically consider him.

2) Will Ian Desmond or Jordan Zimmermann sign a contract extension before they hit the free agent market?

No. Both will go to FA. Desmond to the Yankees to be the next Derek Jeter, Zimmermann to highest bidder.

3) Who was the biggest pleasant surprise on this year’s team?

Rendon’s advancement and central role on the team.

4) Who was the biggest disappointment?

Zimmerman’s continued inability to stay healthy. A close second is Harper’s injury riddled season and struggles.

Walter’s hot start to the spring has him in a lot of people’s thoughts… Photo unk via wp.com

Well, the entire DC area was off-work with yesterday’s (hopefully) final snowfall of the season snarling roads and cancelling work. But Tom Boswell was busy chatting. Here’s how i’d have answered his baseball-related questions from his WP chat session on 3/3/14.

Q: Walters is 5-5 and making some impressive defensive plays. Do you foresee him being more than a September call up this year – perhaps a quality utility player? He also seems like a sharp kid and an interesting character.

A: Well, the only “impressive play” I’ve seen Zach Walters pull off was a 2-run scoring throwing error … but that’s just a “short sample size.” To answer this question; yes I think Walters is more than a 9/1 call up this year; I think he’s going to be the first guy called up (ahead of both Jamie Carroll and/or Mike Fontenot at this point) if we need middle infield coverage. I’m worried about his defense (as has been noted in this space before), so I dunno how much we want to depend on him … but so far he’s looking impressive indeed at the plate. What more does he have to prove in AAA? The more he hits, the more he pressures the organization to give him a shot at the MLB level. Boswell doesn’t know either; there’s no room at the inn for him here; maybe a trade is in order to either move him or free up space for him.

Q: If Danny Espinosa can find his swing and cut down on the strikeouts, could Matt Williams get 300+ ABs for him alternating between 2nd/SS/3rd as a super utility?

A: I’m pretty sure that’s the plan for him even if he doesn’t necessarily “find his swing” right now. Who would you rather go to war with as your backup infielder right now? Danny Espinosa or a 40-yr old punch-less middle infielder like Carrol or Fontenot? More and more I think the decision may be Espinosa vs Walters. Boswell agrees, thinking Espinosa *is* going to be the primary utility guy for this team.

Q: Does Mussina get in to HOF?

A: Hmm. That is a tough one. On the one hand his career bWAR is *way* up there (82.7, which puts him in some very heady company right around 50th best in the history of the game). JAWS likes him, and the “Hall of Fame Standards” metric on B-R.com thinks he’s borderline. On the other hand his ERA isn’t fantastic (career 3.68, career ERA+ of 123, which is about what Jimmy Key or Tim Hudson are pitching to for their careers). Didn’t get the magical 300 wins or 3,000 strikeouts. Never won a Cy Young but was in the top 6 in voting 9 times out of 18 years. Five all-star appearances, seven gold gloves. 7-8 with a 3.42 ERA in 139 2/3 post season innings, where he peaked in his 1997 exploits in an epic Baltimore vs Cleveland series. I think he was unquestionably one of the best arms in the game for a period of time, even if Cy Young’s don’t show it. He did not have the greatest reputation with the media though.

Answer? I’d vote for him, but i’m a “bigger hall” guy. I think he’s the type who gets in after a few votes to gather steam as people remember how good he was. But I think its also telling that his best player comparable on B-R is Andy Pettitte, another very borderline hall-of-fame guy. There’s certainly no PED usage issues with Mussina; maybe that’s enough to get him votes that other players will never get. Boswell agrees with my sentiments here.

Q: What are the Syracuse Chiefs expecting in terms of a pitching staff this year?

A: In December 2013, here’s what I predicted for Syracuse’s pitching staff:

What’s happened since then? We traded away Karns, resigned Ryan Tatusko, resigned Tyler Robinson, signed Clay Hensley , signed a lefty Zack Jackson, signed a righty Warner Madrigal, signed former Nat Luis Ayala, traded for Felipe Rivero, signed Josh Roenicke and (just today) signed another former Nat Reliever Michael Gonzalez.

Phew. That’s a lot of guys signed who all look like they belong in AAA. I honestly have no idea how spring training is going to shake out but I do see one issue here: none of these new guys coming in are starters. So with Karns traded away, we’re looking at just 3-4 true starters left out of all these guys. Does Tatusko go back into the rotation? Do the Nats throw a bone to one of the remaining veteran FA starters out there (Joe Saunders has local connections, and Barry Zito could use some work).

If I had to guess, right now, what 5 starters and 7-8 relievers break camp and fly to upstate NY i’d go with the following:

As for the rest of these guys? Maybe some push back to AA, maybe the rest exercise out clauses and hit MLFA again. But there definitely seems like a ton of 4-A/AAA guys for not a lot of spots. Boswell has no idea and openly solicits input from people who do follow the Nats minors.

Q: Why is the opener in Australia a real game instead of an Exhibition?

A: Probably because the moment it becomes an exhibition thousands of miles away … teams would basically send their AAA squads. And MLB knows it, so they have to be “real games.” Boswell just notes how unfair it is to the teams that play.

Q: What’s the best way to get Bryce Harper’s autograph on a special piece of memorabilia?

A: Probably to go to Spring Training and bring along a little kid That’s my plan, eventually, to use Son-as-proxy to get cool autographs. Of course, I also have this thing where everytime i’m in a position to get an autograph I have the player customize it to my son … cheesy, sure. But i’m not acquiring autographs to re-sell them or some fool thing. Boswell doens’t have any good advice.

Q: Assuming you could afford them all and they would resign, if you had to who on the current roster to make “lifelong” Nats – who would you choose among Desmond/Zimmermann/Strasburg/Harper? And who is the most replaceable?

A: Great question. The kind that will inevitably lead to 30+ comments here

Assuming money is no object and that they’d all re-sign, I think your “lifelong” Nats have to be in order Desmond, Harper, Strasburg, and then Zimmermann. All four if you can get them. I think they’re replaceable in this order: Zimmermann, Strasburg, Desmond and Harper. But even that order is splitting hairs between Strasburg and Desmond; who is more replaceable? A top-5 short stop in the league or a top-10 arm? I dunno. Harper is in a league by himself; you just can’t replicate power hitters who matriculate to the majors by age 19.

I think Zimmermann is the most replaceable by our pipeline of upper-end arms. The other three guys, not so much.

By the way, this question goes to the essence of my arguments against “Big Money GMs” as postulated in the post and comments sections of my big GM Rankings post last week. This question is entirely moot if you have a $200M payroll. Do you think Brian Cashman ever had to sit down with his ownership and go, “ok we’ve got Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada coming up on the end of their deals: we can only keep a couple of them; which ones are we letting walk?”

Boswell goes slightly different order of replaceability, putting Strasburg ahead of Desmond because the Nats have Espinosa and Walters. Uh … not sure I think either of those two guys is a “replacement” for Desmond right now Mr. Boswell. Nonetheless he also postulates that the Nats really can only keep two of the four, and that internally they keep a “5 max contract” limit in place, meaning that they still have some flexibility to keep three of these four guys.

Q: I am not impressed with the Nats’ bench, because it is a bucket full of strikeouts. Does this open a door for Jamey Carroll to make the Opening Day roster? Would it be a bad sign if he did?

A: I cut-n-pasted this whole question because I love the “bucket-full of strikeouts” line. Maybe a grizzled vet keeps Carroll instead of Espinosa or Tyler Moore. Maybe not. But if you carry Carroll instead of Moore, you are trading one commodity (defense) for another (power). I’d rather have Moore but understand the positional flexibility of Carroll. Boswell seems to intimate the decision will be Carroll vs Walters: why does everyone assume Moore is making this team with two other backup outfielders already under multi-million dollar contracts??

Q: If Zach Walters continues his excellent play from the end of last year deep into the Spring, and Danny Espinosa parties like it’s 2012, do you see the Nats dealing Espinosa this year, or are his defensive skills at short and second too valuable to lose?

A: Yes, I think Espinosa will eventually be traded, as I’ve noted many times here (best summarized in this 1/2/14 Ladson inbox response). But, he has to regain value first. If he’s suddenly returning to a near 100 ops+ hitter with his defensive prowness, there’s a whole slew of teams that could use an upgrade at the position (just perusing RotoWorld depth charts, I can see a 2011-esque Espinosa being a desirable choice to current options for at least Houston, Minnesota, Miami, maybe the Mets, Pittsburgh, San Diego, maybe Chicago (WS), maybe the Angels, maybe Seattle, and maybe the Dodgers (so they can move Hanley Ramirez back to 3B). And that doesn’t even look at the 2B options out there that he could ably fill. Boswell notes this little nugget; the Dodgers sniffed around on Espinosa exactly to do what I just said; move Hanley back to third.

Q: Should we be concerned about middle infield depth? If Espinosa can’t hit over .200, who’s left? Jamey Carroll’s OBP was .267 in 227 ABs last season… yikes.

A: I’m not concerned because we should only have to count on one of these guys. Espinosa (as mentioned ad naseum) had a pretty legitimate excuse for his BA last year; he was hurt. He’s healthy now; there should be no reason he doesn’t return to at least a .240 guy with power he was for his first couple of seasons. Boswell points at his new favorite fan boy Zach Walters.

Q: Assuming the Nats fifth starter (whoever it may be though I’m pulling for Detwiler) has a great “fifth starter” season, how good can we expect it to be? Has any fifth starter won 15-20 games?

A: I think a “good” season out of our 5th starter would be 28 starts, a 14-8 record or something like that, and an ERA in the 3.50 range. I’d love to see that happen. Has a 5th starter ever won 15-20 games? I have no idea how you’d find that out; it isn’t as if starters are “labeled” by their rotational rankings like we do in the sportswriting world. I looked up a couple of options though to see how some “5th” starters fared on some very good teams (looking up the winningest teams I could think of in the 5th starter era)

The 5th starter for the 108 win 1986 Mets was Rick Aguilera; he went 10-7 with a 3.66 ERA.

The 114-game winning 1998 Yankees 5th starter was Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez, who went 12-4 and had the best ERA+ on the staff, but he wasn’t exactly a “normal” 5th starter. In reality by the time the playoffs rolled around the real 5th starter was Hideki Irabu: he was 13-9 in the regular season but didn’t get a start in the post-season.

Lastly the 116-game winning 2001 Mariners’ 5th starter seemed to be John Halama, who went 10-7 despite a 4.73 ERA and was replaced mid-season by rookie Joel Pineiro.

Boswell notes a good point; if a “5th starter” wins 20 games … people forget he was the 5th starter.

Q: He had 38 (or thereabouts) errors in Syracuse this year. I don’t think there should be any serious talk of him spending significant time with the Nats until he can clean up his fielding in AAA.

A: I wonder if the person who sent in this question also reads me. By the way: the break down of Errors (per b-r.com) was 31 errors in 104 games at short to go along with 7 additional errors in 27 games while playing third. That’s a LOT of errors. And it is almost entirely consistent with the number of errors he committed in 2012 in AA. So this wasn’t a fluke season.

We all hear stories about how crummy minor league fields are and how they contribute to poor fielding numbers for players. Have you ever played on a pro field? They’re miles better than any amateur field and looked beyond immaculate to me. I wonder just how much nicer they can get honestly.

But, yes I do somewhat agree with the questioner here; I’d like to see Walters have a cleaner fielding season before counting on him. That being said, we should all remember that we were ready to string up Ian Desmond for his fielding issues … now he’s a gold-glove calibre talent. Boswell brings up Desmond’s incredibly poor minor league fielding record … maybe there’s more truth to the whole minor league field issue than we thought.

Q: Do you think Storen might not be long for the team? I’ve felt for some time that Game 5 in 2012 truly affected how Rizzo sees him. Also, many like to say they have three guys who have closed in the bullpen. I feel the 7th, 8th and 9th are all different so that theory doesn’t always work. Thoughts?

A: I’m not sure if 2012 has anything to do with it: Drew Storen definitely got squeezed in that inning and in some ways was very unlucky. And as my dad likes to point out, Davey Johnson‘s usage of Storen in the series (and his bullpen management overall) really left something to be desired. Nonetheless, to answer the question no I think Storen is eventually moved, not because of any bad blood but because of simple economics. We’ve got a really expensive bullpen and three closer-quality guys when only one is needed. At some point we will cash in. I’m not sure I believe that 7th/8th/9th innings require different mindsets; you still want guys who can get people out, you want swing-and-miss talents, you want people who can keep the ball in the park and not walk anyone. Boswell doesn’t really answer the question.