Takeaways From Virginia and New Jersey Elections

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The takeaways from last week’s
elections are about a man and a state.

The man, Chris Christie, was overwhelmingly re-elected
governor of New Jersey, bringing cheer to Republicans. The state
is Virginia, which is inching toward becoming a Democratic-leaning outpost. With both, there are caveats.

Christie was a big winner; some consider him a clear
favorite for the 2016 presidential nomination and even the de
facto leader of his besieged and divided party.

The recently published, headline-grabbing book on the 2012
election, “Double Down: Game Change 2012,” by Mark Halperin
and John Heilemann, provides an insightful critique of the 51-year-old New Jersey Republican. He is smart, tough, empathetic,
confident and arrogant. Wall Street billionaires, many of whom
don’t give a whit about cultural or social issues, melt into a
drooling man-crush around the take-no-prisoners Christie.

There also are yellow lights. Mitt Romney’s camp leaked the
information they gathered while vetting Christie as a possible
running mate on the Republican presidential ticket in 2012. It
allegedly contained questionable billing, dubious relationships
and dealings, and temperamental concerns. “If Christie had been
in the nomination fight against us we would have destroyed
him,” Romney’s advisers concluded, according to the authors.

Jersey Style

Then there’s the question of how the brash, in-your-face
Jersey style will play in the Midwest or South. Movement
conservatives question Christie’s bona fides on immigration,
climate change and guns, and they resent his failure to hate
President Barack Obama. Tax activist Grover Norquist predicts a
softness on gun control will be especially troublesome for
Christie.

As Christie tries to assuage movement conservatives, who
form the base of the party, he risks losing his calling card:
straight-talking authenticity.

Still, even though the old-line Republican establishment
may be in eclipse, it has been a long time since they had a
candidate as formidable this early.

Many Republicans say they lost Virginia’s gubernatorial
race because their candidate, state Attorney General Ken
Cuccinelli, was flawed. True, but the Democratic victor, Terry
McAuliffe, was from New York, has been a wheeler-dealer in money
and politics for decades, and failed to deliver on a promise he
made that a company he controlled would create jobs in Virginia.

More instructive, if somewhat muddled, are the Election Day
exit polls. The electorate was 72 percent white, down from 78
percent four years earlier. Even if the black turnout was
slightly exaggerated, the demographics of Virginia -- once
called a hotbed of social rest -- are changing. That’s bad for
Republicans.

Young voters represented 13 percent of the electorate this
time, up from 10 percent four years ago. McAuliffe won this
group by 5 points, much less than Obama’s 25-point margin in the
presidential contest. A third-party, libertarian candidate did
best with this demographic, getting 15 percent; he espoused
tolerance and keeping the government out of people’s personal
lives and bedrooms -- views many Republicans reject.

The exit polls also cast doubt on Republicans’ claims that
they almost won the race because of the unpopularity of the
Affordable Care Act. By a slight margin, Obamacare was viewed
negatively by voters this year, a result that is virtually
unchanged from 2012 exit polls in the state.

Geoff Garin, a McAuliffe campaign poll-taker, says the
controversial measure actually helped his candidate. “Medicaid
expansion is part of Obamacare, and Cuccinelli’s opposition to
that was an important part of the appeal to voters we
targeted,” he said.

Virginia Blue

All things being equal, though they probably won’t be,
color Virginia slightly blue going into 2016.

There’s no cause for cockiness. Democrats expected to do
better with white working-class Virginians based on the idea
that race may have played a role in Obama’s miserable showing
with this group. Yet white, working-class, non-college-educated
men voted overwhelmingly for Cuccinelli; southwest Virginia, a
stronghold of these voters, went as decisively Republican as
last time.

“We have a lot of work to start getting votes of working-class whites,” Garin said.