Meanwhile, the Kiev Post takes a look at the ethnic politics in the city, finds calm amongst the citizenry but lots of potential for discord. The article really highlights how dependent Sevastopol is, economically, on the presence of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. I can’t help but think that that implies a lot of sympathy for the Russians even amongst local Ukrainian speakers.

The prevalent speculation in Ukraine and in the West is that “liberating” the Crimean Peninsula’s Russian population will be the next pretext for Russia to expand its grip on the post Soviet space and gobble up Ukraine.

It is a scenario which needs to be carefully examined since it is feasible, but not probable, in the short run.

He recommends not antagonizing the Russians as NATO support is by no means certain.

I wonder again, what genius thought it was a good idea for the Dallas and the Pathfinder to visit Sevastopol at this moment, and why.

Thomas Barnett isn’t happy about the idea of quickly re-arming Georgia, or of allying the US with it:

This is Russia’s border we’re taking about here. Think carefully about the next steps and the “inviolable” U.S. strategic interests you’re casually picking up, because those can quickly get our people dead.

Maybe. He says perhaps to influence the election to one candidate’s benefit. Take with a large grain of salt. Note also how he responds to the question late in this CNN interview about guaranteeing other border states against Russian attack.

After years of cultivating xenophobic sentiment and persuading Russians that they face an enemy, the Kremlin had prepared the population psychologically for war. That, says Boris Dubin, a sociologist, is why Russia’s propaganda fell on fertile ground. In the public mind, he claims, the cause of the war is to be found in “America’s expansionist plans and desire to establish control over Russia’s neighbours.”

Folks like Thomas Barnett who’ve been wondering when and whether the Chinese would take a stand for international order just got their answer:

China and several Central Asian nations rebuffed Russia’s hopes of international support for its actions in Georgia, issuing a statement Thursday denouncing the use of force and calling for the respect of every country’s territorial integrity.

Not a call the Chinese necessarily needed to make, and not one you’d have expected from their prior willingness to play footsie with Putin. Galrahn sees an opening for a deal:

Russia needs the west to accept the independence of two breakaway provinces pretty bad right now, too bad there is no government for the west to recognize. Good news for Russia though, serious cooperation in regards to Iran while they stand up a couple of democratic governments could go a long way towards Russia achieving its objectives. Democracy doesn’t happen over night, if Russia sets up a couple democracies, which could take a year, and works with the west over that time period towards stopping Iranian nuclear development, I’d say there is a good bargain for both sides to be made.

“Democratic” is a pretty unrealistic hope, but the rest could be possible.

Addendum: Could the Chinese government’s attitude stem in some small part from seeing how its citizens reacted to Team USA in the Olympics? There were several occasions, the women’s soccer semi-final and the men’s basketball final most notably, when it was like our men and women were playing a home game.