Thomson

It’s a heck of a way to run a pre-election campaign. On the eve of an expected election, politicians usually spend their time playing up good news, downplaying the bad, shaking hands and kissing babies.

Leger survey shows Wildrose with strong lead as new session opens

Party popularity

Photograph by: Darren Francey
, Calgary Herald

With the provincial legislature set to resume Monday, the Progressive Conservative government has the support of only a quarter of decided Albertans as approval of Premier Alison Redford has “dropped off a cliff,” according to a new poll commissioned by the Calgary Herald.

The Leger survey, conducted between Feb. 24 and 27, sees the Wildrose Party out front among decided voters, with 38 per cent support compared to the Tories’ 25 per cent.

The Liberals would have the backing of 16 per cent of voters if an election were held today, while the NDP has 15 per cent support and the Alberta Party has three per cent.

Almost one in four Albertans said they were undecided.

The poll shows a significant shift from last September when the Wildrose and PCs were running neck-and-neck at 34 and 33 per cent apiece in the aftermath of the summer’s massive southern Alberta flooding.

And the numbers are even worse than when Leger polled Albertans last April, when the Tories clocked in at 29 per cent support following a highly unpopular austerity budget and a string of controversies.

The latest poll shows Redford herself has only 20 per cent approval among Albertans, while 64 per cent disapprove of her performance as leader in the past year.

Leger vice-president Ian Large said that is an “extraordinary” fall from the premier’s 32 per cent approval rating last September and more dire than her 26 per cent support last April.

“It’s just dropped off a cliff,” he said from Edmonton. “I think it’s the lowest we’ve ever seen here.”

Large attributed the decline in the premier’s numbers to the controversy over expenses, notably the uproar over the $45,000 cost of her trip to South Africa for Nelson Mandela’s funeral. Nova Scotia Premier Stephen McNeill’s expenses for the same trip were less than $1,000.

Redford is the only leader whose negatives outweigh her positives in the poll.

NDP Leader Brian Mason comes in at 32 per cent approval, with 23 per cent disapproval. Liberal Leader Raj Sherman has 29 per cent approval, while 28 per cent of Albertans disapprove.

Large said the Tories have shed support in all regions. The Wildrose Party has leads over the Tories of 41 per cent to 28 per cent in Calgary (of decided voters) and 44 per cent to 29 per cent outside the two major cities.

In Edmonton, the Tories are tied for third with the Liberals at 19 per cent, while Wildrose and the NDP battle it out at 29 and 27 per cent respectively.

An even more troubling sign for Redford is that just under half of those who voted for the Tories in the last election — where the party won 44 per cent of the vote — would do so again.

“That’s worrisome. It’s one thing to annoy people who aren’t your base. That’s almost a given as a leader, as a premier. But this suggests that she is annoying people who are her base,” said Large.

The Tory government has experienced a financial revival since last spring thanks to high energy prices and a low Canadian dollar. Finance Minister Doug Horner is expected to unveil a good-news provincial budget for 2014-15 on Thursday.

But Mount Royal University political analyst David Taras questioned whether a government policy or action can turn around the PC numbers.

He believes the root of the premier’s problems stems from the spending promises broken in last year’s budget, compounded by the travel and expense controversies.

Redford won the support of 77 per cent of PC delegates in last November’s party leadership review but questions could spring up again around her position at the party’s helm if there are no signs of improvement, he said.

“Is there a tipping point with these numbers?” said Taras.

“The party is running ahead of her. So I would say there is a Redford drag. It all comes down to trust. And again, there’s a lot of shattered glass in the last budget and a series of broken promises. There are many groups in the province that don’t believe her anymore.”

The Leger poll was conducted online between Feb. 24 and Feb. 27, with a representative sample of 1,000 Albertans.

A probabilistic sample of 1,000 respondents would yield a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Margins or error are higher for the regions, sitting at 5.5 percentage points in Edmonton, 5.4 in Calgary, and 5.2 in the rest of the province.

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