HOLYOKE -- Treasurer Jon D. Lumbra has made public his analysis of how a $500 million casino would affect the city's fiscal picture, releasing a 28-page report titled "Economic Impact of a Casino Project Within The City Of Holyoke."

Noting that his report is a "hypothetical snapshot of what might be, not what will be," Lumbra said his estimates are based on "a very high level review with little if any factual details" about any of the city's potential casino developments. Prior to Mayor Alex Morse's recent announcement that he would not negotiate with casino developers, the two leading proposals in the city were Paper City Development's proposed casino resort at Wyckoff Country Club and Eric Suher's pitch for a casino at his Mountain Park property.

Some impacts, such as upgrades to the city's sewer system or the potential for a casino to increase or decrease property values, are nearly impossible to estimate, Lumbra writes in the report.

One of the more concrete estimates the report offers, though, involves the potential impact of a casino on the buffer between city's tax levy limit and its levy ceiling.

If a casino were up and running and on the tax rolls by 2016, Lumbra's analysis shows, the city could see the room between its tax levy limit and its levy ceiling expand from $999,226 in 2013 to $10.6 million.

Under state law, a city or town's levy limit is a restriction on the amount of property taxes the community can levy. The levy ceiling, meanwhile, is calculated as 2.5 percent of the "total full and fair cash value of taxable real and personal property in the community," according to a primer on the law prepared by the Massachusetts Department of Revenue.

When a city's levy limit exceeds its levy ceiling, Lumbra explains in the report, the city must slash its budget or seek revenue through funding outside of taxes. A larger buffer would allow the city to increase property taxes over time -- in this case, to the tune of over $10 million. Under that scenario, Lumbra explained, "The city would then be in a better position to grow the size of government to better serve residents."

On the issue of how a casino would affect residential property taxes, the report lays out several scenarios for 2016 showing a potential drop in the average single family tax bill. The decreases range from $963 to $1,531, depending on how the city splits the burden between homeowners and the commercial, industrial and personal (not residential) classifications.

In their statement about the report, Paper City Development partners Anthony Ravosa Jr. and Joseph A. Lashinger Jr. accused Lumbra of allowing the analysis to languish for more than a year after an initial request from the City Council.

"There are serious questions as to why Treasurer Lumbra has consistently snubbed his nose at the City Council in their logical, reasonable and numerous requests for this information," Ravosa said in the press release.

Former Councilors Anthony M. Keane and John J. O'Neill first requested details about a casino's economic impact in October 2011. Similar requests followed from Councilor at Large Daniel B. Bresnahan in February of this year and on Dec. 4 from Councilors Todd A. McGee, Anthony Soto and Bresnahan.

In a lengthy email to a reporter at The Republican, Lumbra disputed Paper City's assertion that the responsibility for the delay in the preparation and release of the report fell solely to the office of the Treasurer. At the time of the initial request, Lumbra explained, he believed the offices of the Tax Collector and Assessors would take the lead in the analysis because both are City Council appointees and deal more directly with the impact of major developments on property values. The information requested, Lumbra wrote, included "other areas outside the purview of my office."

The second order requesting information was never presented to the Treasurer's Office, Lumbra said, and it was only with the December 2012 request that he "... began to do [my] due diligence to provide the information requested."

Lumbra chafed at the implication that he'd been withholding information from the city's taxpayers or neglecting the responsibilities of his office. Under his tenure, he said, the Treasurer's Office has collected over $2,570,691 in back taxes, returned 249 properties to the active tax rolls, increased the city's bond rating and helped to refinance its long term debt. The refinancing will save taxpayers $11,545,113 in interest, Lumbra said.

"What has become clear is that this is not about providing the taxpayers of Holyoke with facts to aide in public dialogue; rather it is a personal attack on me and my office," he wrote.

He continued: "I wish Mr. Ravosa and the other members of Paper City Development, LLC the best in their future endeavors. My office and I will continue to work each day to ensure the financial well-being of our city and do everything in our power to make sure the city of Holyoke and its residents flourish."

This is a developing story. The Republican's Mike Plaisance will have more this evening. Below, an executive summary and the full text of the report.