A full ABC website for the election will be launched early in the new year, but for the moment this post will provide an electoral pendulum and summaries of the key contests in the Legislative Assembly.

The 2008 election produced a political deadlock. In the new 59 member Legislative Assembly, 30 members were required for majority government. Labor returned 28 members, the Liberal Party 24, the balance of power held by four Nationals and three Independents. In the end the Nationals resisted offers to back a Labor government, the Nationals and Independents backed Liberal Leader Colin Barnett to become Premier. Three Nationals joined the ministry, as did Independent Elizabeth Constable.

The Liberal and National Parties won 51.9% of the statewide two-party preferred vote to 48.1% for Labor. Of the state's 59 seats, 31 recorded Liberal or National two-party majorities to 28 with Labor majorities.

While agreeing to form government, the Nationals did not form a formal Coalition with the Liberal Party, and the two parties will compete vigorously against each other at the 2013 election. With polls indicating Labor has little chance of winning the 2013 election, the fight by the National Party to increase its influence in both houses of Parliament may be the most important feature of the 2013 election.

There have been several changes to the party numbers since the 2008 election. Labor lost two seats in 2009, North West member Vince Catania deserting Labor and joining the Nationals in July, and Fremantle being lost at a May 2009 by-election. Adele Carles won Fremantle as a Green candidate, but has since become an Independent.

A major redistribution completed in 2011 has also altered the party numbers. The new boundaries of North West Central resulted in the seat's political majority following its MP Vince Catania across the political divide to the Nationals. In Perth, the inner-northern seat of Morley was also converted from marginal Liberal to Marginal Labor.

Taking these changes into account, the starting point for the 2013 election is Liberal 23 seats, National five, Labor 27 with four Independents.

All four Independent seats could change hands in 2013. Long serving Churchlands MP Liz Constable is retiring, and there is a strong liklihood her seat will be recovered by the Liberal Party. John Bowler will be retiring in Kalgoorlie, and his seat will see a strong contest between the Liberals and Nationals. Janet Woollard will struggle to retain Alfred Cove against another challenge from the Liberal Party, while Labor will have a strong chance of recovering Fremantle.

The margins for all seats are shown in the electoral pendulum below. It is based on re-adjusting the 2008 results to match the new electoral boundaries. Brief summaries of the key seats are shown after the pendulum.

Electoral Pendulum for 2013 Western Australian Election

Liberal / National (23/5)

Wanneroo

LIB 1.0%

Mount Lawley

LIB 1.7%

Jandakot

LIB 1.8%

Southern River

LIB 1.8%

Riverton

LIB 2.0%

Ocean Reef

LIB 2.7%

Moore

NAT 3.1% v LIB

North West Central (*)

NAT 3.3%

Eyre

LIB 3.4% v NAT

Swan Hills

LIB 3.5%

Kingsley

LIB 4.6%

Scarborough

LIB 5.1%

Kalamunda

LIB 6.3%

Darling Range

LIB 7.0%

Geraldton

LIB 8.5%

Murray-Wellington

LIB 8.8%

Bateman

LIB 9.4%

Warren-Blackwood

NAT 10.2% v LIB

Bunbury

LIB 11.1%

Dawesville

LIB 11.1%

Carine

LIB 12.7%

Hillarys

LIB 12.9%

South Perth

LIB 14.3%

>Nedlands

LIB 16.6%

Vasse

LIB 17.8%

Central Wheatbelt

NAT 18.8% v LIB

Cottesloe

LIB 19.4%

Wagin

NAT 28.4% v LIB

Independents (4)

Alfred Cove

IND 0.2% v LIB

Kalgoorlie

IND 3.6% v NAT

Fremantle (*)

IND 4.0% v ALP

Churchlands

IND 22.5%

Labor (27)

Albany

ALP 0.2%

Forrestfield

ALP 0.2%

Morley (*)

ALP 0.8%

Balcatta

ALP 2.2%

Joondalup

ALP 3.3%

Collie-Preston

ALP 3.8%

West Swan

ALP 4.1%

Gosnells

ALP 4.8%

Belmont

ALP 6.7%

Girrawheen

ALP 6.7%

Kimberley

ALP 6.8%

Pilbara

ALP 7.2%

Perth

ALP 7.7%

Midland

ALP 8.3%

Maylands

ALP 8.8%

Cannington

ALP 9.0%

Victoria Park

ALP 9.0%

Cockburn

ALP 9.2%

Warnbro

ALP 10.1%

Bassendean

ALP 10.3%

Butler

ALP 10.4%

Mandurah

ALP 10.5%

Rockingham

ALP 11.4%

Mirrabooka

ALP 12.9%

Armadale

ALP 14.8%

Willagee

ALP 15.0%

Kwinana

ALP 16.4%

The Key Seats

Liberal / National

Wanneroo

LIB 1.0%: Wannero is an outer northern Perth electorate on the eastern side of Lake Wanneroo north of Gnangara Road. It includes the suburbs of Carramar, Tapping, Ashby, Sinagra, Wanneroo, Hocking, Pearsall and Gnangara. Wanneroo has been a key marginal seat through most of its history and was gained by the Liberal Party's Paul Miles at the 2008 election. His Labor opponent in 2013 is Brett Treby.

Mount Lawley

LIB 1.7%: The electorate of Mount Lawley covers a strip of inner northern Perth lying east of Wanneroo Road and Walcott Street, including the suburbs of Yokine, Coolbinia and Menora, most of Mt Lawley, and parts of Dianella, Inglewood, Morley and East Perth. Having previously existed between 1950 and 1989, Mount Lawley was re-created as a marginal Labor electorate on the introduction of one-vote one-value electoral boundaries at the 2008 election. Labor declined to endorse local Labor MP Bob Kucera to contest the seat, and Liberal Michael Sutherland won the seat with one of the state's largest anti-Labor swings. For the 2013 election the Labor Party has reversed its pre-selection decision in 2008, returning to Bob Kucera who represented the abolished local seat of Yokine 2001-08 and served as a Minister in the Gallop government.

Jandakot

LIB 1.8%: Jandakot is centred on Jandakot Airport and includes the suburbs of Atwell, Banjup, Aubin Grove, Leeming, Jandakot, North Lake and parts of Bibra Lake and South Lake. Having previously existed as a Liberal electorate between 1989 and 1996, Jandakot was re-created as a marginal Labor electorate ahead of the 2008 election, one of the new Perth seats created on the introduction of one-vote one-value electoral boundaries. With no sitting Labor MP, Jandakot was won in 2008 by Liberal candidate Joe Francis. He will be opposed in 2013 by Labor's Klara Andric.

Southern River

LIB 1.8%: In the south-east suburbs of Perth to the east of Jandakot Airport, the electorate of Southern River includes the suburbs of Canning Vale, Southern River and Huntingdale. A marginal seat since it was first contested in 1996, Southern River has been won by both sides of politics and was gained for the Liberal Party by Peter Abetz at the 2008 election. His Labor opponent in 2013 will be Susy Thomas.

Riverton

LIB 2.0%: Riverton covers the inner southern suburbs of Perth on the south side of the Canning River, including Rossmoyne, Shelley, Riverton, Parkwood and Willetton. First contested in 1989, Riverton was held for three terms by senior Court Government Minister Graham Kierath. He was defeated at the 2001 election by Labor's Tony McRae, who was re-elected in 2005 but narrowly defeated at the 2008 election, a defeat that cost Labor government. The new Liberal MP elected in 2008 was Dr Mike Nahan, elected by just 0.2% in 2008, but assisted by the redistribution before the 2013 election with his margin increased to 2.0%. The Labor Party has nominated Hannah Beazley, a daughter of former Federal Labor Leader Kim Beazley.

Ocean Reef

LIB 2.7%: The electorate of Ocean Reef stretches along the coast in Perth's northern beaches and includes the suburbs of Mindarie, Burns Beach, Kinross, Iluka, Ocean Reef, Mullaloo and part of Currambine. It was a new notionally Labor-held electorate created on the introduction of one-vote one-value electoral boundaries at the 2008 election. However, the seat was not defended by a sitting Labor MP in 2008 and it was won at its first contest by Liberal Albert Jacob. The most recent redistribution has cut the Liberal margin from 4.4% to an estimated 2.7%, which will give some hope to Labor candidate Philippa Taylor.

Moore

NAT 3.1% v LIB: The first rural electorate north of Perth, Moore is a vast electorate extending from Toodyay, Bindoon and Gingin near Perth, to Kalbarri in the state's mid-north, but excluding the City of Geraldton-Greenough. This is a part of the state where Labor normally finishes third. In 2008 the introduction of one-vote one-value electoral boundaries saw Moore become a contest between sitting Liberal MP Gary Snook, and National MP Grant Woodhams, whose seat of Greenough had been abolished. Woodhams won on Labor preferences but will be retiring at the 2013 election, creating another contest between the non-Labor parties. The Liberal Party candidate is Chris Wilkins, opposed by National candidate Shane Love, with Labor's Peter Johnson likely to finish third.

North West Central (*)

NAT 3.3%: This electorate covers a vast swathe of the state's inland and north west with major population centres at Carnarvon, Denham, Exmouth, Meekatharra, Paraburdoo and Tom Price. Currently known as North West, this seat was won by Labor's Vince Catania at the 2008 election, but he deserted Labor when he crossed the floor to join the National Party in July 2009. Labor's 2008 majority has been reversed by the removal of Roebourne Shire in the redistribution, the new boundaries giving the seat a notional National margin of 3.3%. Catania will contest as the National candidate for the first time in 2013, opposed by Labor's Jennifer Shelton and Liberal candidate Tami Maitre.

Eyre

LIB 3.4% v NAT: One of the state's largest electorates, Eyre extends from Westonia and Ravensthorpe to the South Australian Border, including the major centres of Boulder, Esperance, Kambalda and Norseman. Eyre was existed at various elections over the last sixty years, but in its current incarnation was created by the introduction of one-vote one-value electoral boundaries at the 2008 election. Lying in a part of the state where Labor often finishes third, Eyre will again be a contest between the Liberal and National Parties. It was won in 2008 by Liberal Graham Jacobs, who first won Roe from the National Party at the 2005 election. Jacobs will be opposed in 2013 by the National Party's Colin De Grussa.

Swan Hills

LIB 3.5%: The electorate of Swan Hills covers the north-eastern corner of the metropolitan area, taking in parts of the Swan Valley as well as the Darling Range suburbs along the Great Eastern Highway. It has been strongly fought over since its first contest in 1989, and was won by Liberal Frank Alban at the 2008 election. His Labor opponent in 2013 will be Ian Radisich, the brother of the late Labor MP for Swan Hills Jaye Radisich.

Warren-Blackwood

NAT 10.2% v LIB: Replacing the abolished electorate Blackwood-Stirling, Warren-Blackwood covers the south-west coast of the state from Margaret River to Denmark and rural areas inland. It covers the Shires of Denmark, Manjimup, Boyup Brook, Donnybrook-Balingup, Bridgetown-Greenbushes, Nannup and most of Augusta-Margaret River. Under its old name it was won by National Terry Redman, who has been Minister for Agriculture, Food and Forestry since 2008. His opponents in 2013 will be Labor's John Thorp and Liberal Ray Colyer. On past voting patterns, Labor is likely to finish third.

Labor

Albany

ALP 0.2%: Albany lies on the south coast of Western Australia and was the site of the first European settlement in Western Australia. The electorate of Albany coincides with the boundaries of Albany local government area and has been held by Labor's Peter Watson since 2001, overcoming the introduction of one-vote one-value electoral boundaries in 2008 to win re-election. A former middle distance running, Watson contested the 1500m at the 1968 Olympics. Before Watson's victory in 2001, Labor had not won Albany for three decades. Albany will see a three-cornered contest in 2013 with Watson opposed by Liberal Trevor Cosh and National Robert Sutton.

Forrestfield

ALP 0.2%: Forrestfield covers an area east of Perth Airport and the Roe Highway, including the suburbs of High Wycombe, Maida Vale, Forrestfield, Wattle Grove, Kenwick and parts of Orange Grove and Maddington. Forrestfield first contested at the 2008 election, one of several new Perth seats created on the introduction of one-vote one-value electoral boundaries. The 2008 contest will be reprised in 2013, with Labor MP Andrew Waddell, first elected in 2008, again opposed by the Liberal Party's Nathan Morton.

Morley (*)

ALP 0.8%: On new electoral boundaries, the electorate of Morley lies in Perth's inner-northern suburbs and includes Nollamara, Noranda and parts of Dianella and Morley. This seat was a disastrous loss for Labor in 2008. Having declined to endorse Labor MP John D'Orazio for Morley, he nominated as an Independent and directed preferences against Labor, helping to elect Liberal candidate Ian Britza. At the 2013 election Britza will face a rough challenge, as the redistribution has wiped out his margin of 0.9%, the new boundaries giving Morley a notional Labor margin of 0.8%. As in 2008, the Labor candidate will be former journalist Reece Whitby.

Balcatta

ALP 2.2%: Balcatta is an inner-northern Perth electorate lying between Wanneroo Road and the Mitchell Freeway south of the Reid Highway. The electorate includes the suburbs of Balcatta, Joondanna, Osborne Park, Stirling, Tuart Hill and parts of Hamersley. Balcatta has been created and abolished on several occasions over the years but has always been represented by the Labor Party, and former members include Brian Bourke, Nick Catania, and retiring Labor MP John Kobelke. The new Labor candidate is Janet Pettigrew, opposed by Liberal Chris Hatton, who also contested the seat in 2008.

Joondalup

ALP 3.3%: Joondalup covers a string of outer northern Perth suburbs, centred on the Joondalup Town Centre and including the suburbs of Beldon, Connolly, Craigie, Edgewater, Heathridge, Joondalup and parts of Currambine. It has been held by Labor's Tony O'Gorman since 2001, and he will be opposed in 2013 by the Liberal Party's Jan Norberger.

Collie-Preston

ALP 3.8%: The electorate of Collie-Preston includes three south-west shires, Collie, Dardanup and Capel. The largest centre in the electorate is the coal mining town of Collie, but the electorate also includes some outer suburbs of Bunbury. While the electorate has undergone several name changes over the last decade, it has continued to be held by Labor's Mick Murray, first elected in 2001 after two previous unsuccessful attempts. Murray won by just 34 votes in 2001, but achieved easier victories in 2005 and 2008 on changed electoral boundaries. His Liberal opponent in 2013 will be Jaimee Motion. New boundaries will help Labor, increasing its margin in the seat from 1.0% to 3.8%.

West Swan

ALP 4.1%: The electorate of West Swan takes in a disparate array of suburbs around the edges of Whiteman Park in Perth's north. The electorate takes in the western bank of the Swan River, including the wineries and agricultural areas of Caversham, West Swan and Henley Brook, as well as the new housing estates in Ellenbrook. In the south and west the electorate includes parts of Ballajura and Beechboro. It was first contested at the 2008 election when it was won by Labor's Rita Saffioti. Her Liberal opponent in 2013 will be Natasha Cheung.

Gosnells

ALP 4.8%: Gosnells lies south of the Canning River in Perth's south-east corridor and includes the suburbs of Gosnells and Thornlie. Re-created by the redistribution ahead of the 2008 election, it was won by Labor's Chris Tallentire, a former Director of the Conservation Council of WA. He will be opposed in 2013 by the Liberal Party's David Goode.

Kimberley

ALP 6.8%: In the far north of the state, the electorate of Kimberley includes the Shires of Broome, Derby-West Kimberley, Wyndham-East Kimberley and Halls Creek. Major centres include Broome, Derby, Kununurra, Halls Creek and Fitzroy Crossing. Kimberley has been held by Labor's Carol Martin since 2001, but she is retiring at the 2013 election. The new Labor candidate is Josie Farrer, the Liberal Party nominating Jenny Bloom, while the National Party will continue its push into the north of the state by nominating Michele Pucci. The big local issue has been the proposed gas hub project at James Price Point near Broome.

Pilbara

ALP 7.2%: Pilbara is a vast electorate in the north of the state covering the Shire of East Pilbara, the Town of Port Hedland, and the Shire of Roebourne. The main population centres in the electorate are Port Hedland, Newman, Dampier, Karratha, Wickham, Roebourne, Nullagine and Marble Bar. It has long been held by Labor, but the party will face a serious challenge at the 2013 election. Labor MP Tom Stephens is retiring, and the new Labor candidate is Kelly Howlett. The National surge in the state's north at the 2008 election saw the National candidate finish second in Pilbara for the first time. This has encouraged National Leader Brendon Grylls to make a brave decision by abandoning his safe rural seat of Central Wheatbelt and choose to contest Pilbara. The Liberal candidate is George Levissianos.

Independents

Alfred Cove

IND 0.2% v LIB: The electorate of Alfred Cove covers the Swan River foreshore of Melville City Council in the southern suburbs of Perth. It was first contested at the 1996 election and won by Liberal minister Doug Shave, overcoming a strong challenge from Independent Penny Hearne. Shave was defeated at the 2001 election by Janet Woollard, winning as a Liberals for Forests candidate in 2001, and re-elected narrowly as an Independent in both 2005 and 2008. Woollard's margin has been cut to an estimated 0.2% by the redistribution, and a boating accident involving Woollard's son has produced bad publicity for the family. Her Liberal opponent at the 2013 election is Dean Nalder, hoping for victory in an electorate that would normally be viewed as a safe Liberal seat.

Kalgoorlie

IND 3.6% v NAT: Based on Kalgoorlie, but not including neighbouring Boulder, the electorate of Kalgoorlie also includes the Shires of Menzies, Leinster, Laverton and remote Ngaanyatjarraku. Kalgoorlie was held by Labor for eight decades before becoming the only seat gained by the Liberal Party as Labor swept to office in 2001. After two terms in Liberal hands, Kalgoorlie was won by former Labor MP John Bowler in 2008, winning the seat as an Independent against a strong challenge from the National Party's Tony Crook. Bowler is retiring at the 2013 election which means this is a seat that could be won by any party. The National Party has nominated Agricultural Region MLC Wendy Duncan, opposed by Liberal Melissa Price and Labor's Terrence Winner.

Fremantle (*)

IND 4.0% v ALP: The electorate of Fremantle includes Fremantle and surrounding suburbs and runs from the council boundary on the Swan River in the north to Ocean Road in Spearwood, also including Rottnest Island. Labor held Fremantle from 1924 until the retirement of Jim McGinty in 2009, the subsequent by-election being won by Green candidate Adele Carles. She has since parted company with the Greens and introduced an element of soap opera to WA politics through her affair with senior government minister Troy Buswell. The new Labor candidate Simone McGurk will be well positioned to win the seat, even if Carles chooses to re-contest. Carles' victory at the 2009 by-election was made easier by the Liberal Party not nominating a candidate, but the Liberals will return in 2013 with candidate Matthew Hanssen. The Green candidate is Andrew Sullivan.

Comments

Is Kwinana really not a key seat after it was almost won by Carol Adams last time and she is re-contesting?

COMMENT: Labor will be aware in 2013 that Ms Adams is a serious candidate, so you can be sure it will put more resources into its campaign. In addition, the seat has a sitting member in 2013 where in 2008 it did not. There are very few examples of Independents winning at their second attempt. Most win at their first attempt, and the few cases I can think of where an Independent came close and later ran a second time, the independent did not perform as well the second time. (Liz Cunningham in Gladstone in 1995 at a second attempt is an exception.)

Hello I was looking over the probability of the Green Party picking up more seats in the legislative council, looking over the preference flows of the last election however it seems they have minimal chances of gaining another seat. Last election the Greens had the Liberals preferences which aided them immensely since they failed to get a quota in any region on their own. It currently seems as if all parties plan on directing preferences against them, with the exception of Labor whose preferences are not very helpful when they are competing with you for the final seat. Is there some third party in Western Australia which will be directing preferences to the Greens over Labor? The Australian Sex party comes to mind since they got around 2.50% of the vote last time in the senate, but I am unsure if they compete state wide. Without it seems they are in serious danger of being completely shut out even with the same percentage as last time, unless I am missing something.

COMMENT: 6-member LC regions were requested by the Greens as part of the deal allowing Labor to introduce one-vote one-value electoral boundaries in the Legislative Assembly. It was a dumb move as it has probably entrenched a Lib + Nat majority in the Council, and made it harder for the Greens to win a seat in South West region. The big winner was the National Party as the power of Agricultural Region and the Mining and Pastoral Region were increased.

The Greens will face a tough task holding their four seats at the next election because they achieved a record vote in 2008, as they did in the ACT election and in NSW local government elections held at the same time. I think the Green vote might be down on 2008, and if the Liberals direct preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, that will be bad news for the Greens.

If the old odd-numbered regions had been maintained, the Liberals would have had second thoughts about preferencing Labor ahead of the Greens as it could have delivered Labor three of five seats in some regions. With the even numbered regions, Labor is unlikely to do better than three of six seats with Liberal preferences.

At this stage the Sex Party are not a registered party in WA. The three registered WA parties not currently in parliament are Family First, the Australian Christians and the Shooters and Fishers Party.

Antony, your presumption is that the sitting Liberal government of this state shall be re-elected? Will this likely outcome have any bearing on the federal election to be held later this year?

COMMENT: Should, or is likely to, but certainly not shall be re-elected. Shall sounds a bit biblical to me. I think the only Federal implications that would arise would be from a Labor victory. A very strong showing for the Nationals might gain lots of attention over east.

In Germany we see state election being very important indicators of federal elections, such as the upcoming elections in the state of Lower Saxony. Of course the losing parties always say they are totally irrelevant, and the winning parties say they have represent the peoples unhappiness with the national government. How do Australians keep federal issues out of state politics?

COMMENT: In Germany, the result of state elections can have an impact of federal politics because it changes the balance of the national upper house. A run of bad state election results gave the CDU an upper house majority in 2005 and encouraged Gerhard Schroeder to engineer that year's early election.

Australian state elections can have an impact on Federal politics. However, Labor is expected to lose in the WA election. Labor has also done badly in WA at Federal elections for two decades. The state has only 15 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives. Given Labor's current poor representation from the state, and the three hour time difference, we are likely to know the result of the 2013 election before the polls even close in WA. Rightly or wrongly, events in WA do not get a lot of coverage in the rest of Australia.

Good afternoon Mr Green,
Based on the current polls, which are not always correct as we saw in the recent 2012 U.S.A election, is it fair to say that Federal Labor will be wiped out later this year when we go the polls? There remains only one territory and two states with a Labor government so, would it be prudent to suggest Labor will lose seats in all states/territories except perhaps the ACT as they seem pro-Labor down there?
Also, as the Greens have lost seats in the ACT and across NSW council elections, 2012 could we not expect that party will also lose more representation?

COMMENTS: The likelihood is that Labor will lose, but the scale will depend on the differnce in swing from state to state. I would expect the Green vote to fall, but there are only three Green Senators facing election.

Antony, it appears that Labor will be preferencing the Libs ahead of the Nats in country seats. Clearly this puts a number of Nat seats at risk, e.g. Moore. Do you have any information on what percentage of Labor voters will follow their party's HTV in such circumstances? I imagine there would be a higher rate of leakage, as many country ALP voters would prefer the Nats over the Libs.

COMMENT: I don't think it is at all clear what Labor intends to do yet.