Tropical Storm Humberto Drenching the Cape Verde Islands

Tropical Storm Humberto, the eighth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Humberto has formed unusually far to the east, between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings are flying in the southern Cape Verde Islands, and Humberto's rain bands have already arrived in capital city of Praia, where 1.46" of rain has fallen, with sustained winds as high as 26 mph. Humberto's west to west-northwest motion at 12 mph will keep the storm just south and west of the islands through Tuesday, but this path will be close enough to bring potentially dangerous rainfall amounts of 3 - 6 inches to the southern islands. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized with plenty of spin and a growing amount of heavy thunderstorms. The models are bullish of developing Humberto into a hurricane just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Wednesday. If Humberto reaches hurricane strength before 8 am EDT on Wednesday, 2013 will avoid setting the record for the latest formation date of the Atlantic's first hurricane, dating back the beginning of the aircraft reconnaissance era in 1944. Humberto is expected to take a sharp northwards turn later this week, which will carry the storm into a region of ocean where no land areas would likely be at risk from a strike, with the possible exception of the Azores Islands.

Cape Verde Islands Hurricane HistoryThe Atlantic's most terrifying and destructive hurricanes typically start as tropical waves that move off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verde Islands. This class of storms is referred to as "Cape Verde hurricanes", in reference to their origin. Despite the fact that the Atlantic's most feared type of hurricanes are named after the Cape Verde Islands, these islands rarely receive significant impacts from one of their namesake storms. This is because tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have very little time to organize into tropical storms before arriving at the Cape Verde Islands, which lie just 350 miles west of the African coast. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, there have been only two deadly tropical cyclones in Cape Verde history. The deadliest was Tropical Storm Fran of 1984, which brushed the southwestern islands on September 16 as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Fran brought sustained winds of 35 mph and torrential rains to the islands. The rains triggered flash flooding that killed 29 - 31 people and caused damages of almost $3 million (1984 dollars.) The other deadly named storm was Tropical Storm Beryl of 1982, which passed about 30 miles south of the southwestern islands on August 29, with 45 mph winds. The storm's heavy rains killed three people on Brava Island, injured 122, and caused $3 million in damage.

The most recent named storm to affect the islands was Hurricane Julia of 2010, which was the easternmost Category 4 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic. Julia passed about 50 miles south of Sao Filipe in the southern Cape Verde Islands as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds, bringing wind gusts of 30 mph to the islands and some minor flooding.

Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fran of 1984, which brushed the southwestern Cape Verde Islands on September 16 as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Torrential rains from Fran killed 29 - 31 people in the Cape Verde Islands, making it the deadliest storm in their history.

Ex-GabrielleThe remnants of Gabrielle (now being called Invest 92L) are generating heavy thunderstorms about 500 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 25 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next three days. The disturbance is headed to the north-northeast to northeast at 10 mph, and is expected to pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda Tuesday through Wednesday. Since strong westerly winds are keeping most of ex-Gabrielle's heavy thunderstorms displaced to the east, the bulk of this activity should miss Bermuda. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day and 5-day odds of development at 20% in their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Way to soon to say where the Gulf System will end up but one thing I am liking is the needed rains coming into Texas - even if the low itself goes into N.Mex. Of course will have to see how future model trends go but am hopeful right now of at least needed rains coming soon.

Now this is looking more like a tropical cyclone season is underway.... lol ... and I note from the discussion that Humberto is likely to become a hurricane just at or before the record would be broken, so at best we'd get a tie.

1. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEARED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Now this is looking more like a tropical cyclone season is underway.... lol ... and I note from the discussion that Humberto is likely to become a hurricane just at or before the record would be broken, so at best we'd get a tie.

Here in California, we are just coming to grips with the damage from the Rim Fire. Best of luck to you.

Yep, it's awful. I was involved in the Cedar and Paradise fires in 2003. Just breaks your heart to see people coming back and their houses are burnt down or damaged. Over 2000 homes destroyed. I believe the Cedar fire is the largest in California history, at least since records have been kept.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICALSTORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OFLOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILESSOUTH OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. IN ADDITION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORECONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IFTHIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED ONTHIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVENORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BRINGING IT OVER OR VERY NEAR BERMUDAON WEDNESDAY...AND INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THEPROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BEREQUIRED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMINGA TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TOINVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEANSEA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE ISFORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OFCAMPECHE BY LATE THURSDAY WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTEDTO FORM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORECONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THEWEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

I would say it is more of a comma shape. And interestingly it looks healthier now than when it was a TS. That long band of strong convection wrapping into the circulation from the SE is impressive considering it was basically dead earlier today(yesterday).

Maybe soon we will learn what causes longevity vs. short death in cyclones. We certainly have enough evidential examples. I still marvel Gabrielle even is together given that parasite that sucked her dry for days?

Extreme Weather in USA on Tuesday, 10 September, 2013 at 03:11 (03:11 AM) UTC.DescriptionNV Energy says it has restored power to most customers that lost electricity in the powerful storm that hit Monday afternoon. The area near Eastern Avenue and Bonanza was fully restored before 7 p.m. The cause of the outage was lightning. As of 8 p.m., the area near Sahara Avenue and Highland Drive is mostly restored, but lineman are still patrolling the area. The company says it lost two major distribution circuits in the storm. About 2,000 people were without power at one point.

Persistent and donut = annular. Gab has survived more than has been asked of any cyclone.

I would say it is more of a comma shape. And interestingly it looks healthier now than when it was a TS. That long band of strong convection wrapping into the circulation from the SE is impressive considering it was basically dead earlier today(yesterday).