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Thursday, March 13, 2014

The first Wednesday after DST was actually pretty steady for most of the 8/7c occupants, but that may be because they picked up some pieces from American Idol's (2.4) latest double-digit drop. The show dropped behind Survivor (2.5) in the 8:00 hour as well as overall. (Also worth noting the week-to-week decline in PUT didn't appear as significant as the last couple days.)

On ABC, the shows that appeared to overachieve last week each dropped back this week, though a big uptick in finals helped reduce Suburgatory's drop to just a tenth. But Mixology (1.5) still followed up its 100% week two hold by losing two tenths in week three. (Modern Family (3.4) retention is now at 44%.)

And on CBS, Survivor (2.5) was up a notch even against DST (it also grew this week last year), while the crime dramas remained consistently inconsistent; Criminal Minds (2.3) was down noticeably and CSI (2.0) was back up noticeably.

Cable: lots of drops, but it was most brutal for The Americans (0.39). I thought there was no way this show would maintain the same 40%+ year-to-year slippage from premiere night, but here we are... this was 41% behind week three of season one.

FULL TABLE:

Info

Show

Timeslot

True

A18-49

Skew

Last

LeLa

Rank

y2y

TLa

Ty2y

The Middle

2.0

34%

+5%

+0.1

n/a

11/16

n/a

+5%

+54%

2.2

Suburgatory

1.6

38%

-6%

-0.1

+0.1

4/7

n/a

-6%

+14%

1.7

Modern Family

3.4

42%

+0%

+0.0

-0.1

10/16

n/a

+0%

+89%

4.0

Mixology

1.5

44%

-12%

-0.2

+0.0

3/3

n/a

-12%

+15%

1.3

Nashville

1.4

35%

-7%

-0.1

-0.2

11/17

n/a

-7%

+100%

1.6

ABC:

-3%

+57%

Survivor

2.5

33%

+4%

+0.1

n/a

1/3

-7%

+4%

-9%

2.7

Criminal Minds

2.3

27%

-12%

-0.3

+0.1

15/18

n/a

-12%

+31%

2.6

CSI

2.0

25%

+18%

+0.3

-0.3

4/17

n/a

+18%

+21%

2.1

CBS:

+1%

+11%

Revolution

1.3

36%

+0%

+0.0

n/a

12/16

n/a

-4%

+30%

1.5

Law and Order: SVU

1.6

32%

+0%

+0.0

+0.0

9/16

n/a

+3%

+39%

2.0

Chicago PD

1.6

35%

+7%

+0.1

+0.0

5/8

n/a

+3%

+52%

1.8

NBC:

+1%

+41%

American Idol Wed

2.4

30%

-11%

-0.3

n/a

10/10

-37%

-14%

-36%

2.7

Fox:

-14%

-36%

Arrow (R)

0.3

34%

-57%

-33%

0.3

The Tomorrow People (R)

0.2

37%

-50%

-50%

0.3

CW:

-55%

-41%

Big5:

-7%

-3%

Workaholics

0.89

81%

+3%

+0.02

3/8

+15%

Men at Work (10pm)

0.59

57%

-12%

-0.08

9/9

-11%

Psych

0.49

46%

-17%

-0.10

8/10

n/a

Men at Work (10:30)

0.40

62%

-33%

-0.20

10/10

-48%

The Americans

0.39

39%

-31%

-0.17

3/3

-41%

Melissa and Joey

0.38

56%

-16%

-0.07

8/8

-24%

Baby Daddy

0.38

60%

-9%

-0.04

8/8

-26%

KEY (click to expand)

A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

32 comments:

On the October 23rd post, I wrote: "It will be HILARIOUS if one day this spring Survivor manages to beat Idol. Idol dipped below a 3 sometimes and is falling at a way faster rate than Survivor, which got a 2.9 once last spring..."

Prelim #s could change their positions, but it being so close should make it happen one of these weeks if not this week especially since Idol has a good shot at dropping even more...

Two and a Half Men is the only surprise. Not the renewal itself, as TAAHM move to 9 PM certainly improved Thursday, though I wouldn't go so far to say it rejuvenated lineup. Seeing that, CBS was clearly more inclined to bring it back. I mean, it's obviously their best option for Thursday 9 PM. Except maybe for 2 Broke Girls... but that's a moot point, they'd never even consider moving 2BG from Monday.But I'd expect WB would first seal the deals with Kutcher and Cryer, then start hard bargaining with CBS, and renewal to come, like, 2 days before upfront. Boy, WB must be making zillions from TAAHM syndication. Either that, either early renewal comes as a part of The Big Bang Theory agreement.

Too bad Suburgatory isn't so stable too. I mean, it's sliding to on-the-bubble status, and it opens possibility of this scenario:ABC cancels Suburgatory, cuts back comedies (puts Goldbergs to Friday, 2 new comedies on Wednesday), gives back Tuesday hour to DWTS (or some other reality).

While, if Suburgatory would be stable, we could be sure in ABC keeping 4 comedies. I mean, not that it's important, it simply would make figuring out ABC fall schedule easier. I don't like suspense :)

Yes, basically that's it, they opened their cards with this renewals and Moonves stating 2 new dramas and 2 comedies would premiere in the fall. But might be a bit different.

By that I mean Elementary might move to Monday. Moonves mentioned it last month, he said "there is possibility" and didn't mention where to. But if Elementary moves, then it's Mon 10 PM surely, there's no other timeslot it would significantly improve.I think that's in the context of the possibility NCIS: NO is picked, then Tuesdsy to be 3 x NCIS, and POI going back to Thursday (yeah, not CBSish, but TNF makes this sesone unique one). Simple move POI to Monday (like in your schedule) accomplishes it with one move less (and more CBS style), but that's what he said. Maybe they're afraid POI is more lead-in dependent, and thus too weak for their problematic Mon 10 PM slot. Maybe they think more serialized POI is better suited for November premiere. Maybe he just bluffed. I don't know.

Also CSi and The Good wife might flip, but that's nitpicking, those two are Sunday 9 and 10 for sure.

Yes, I have seen the possibility of Elementary moving, but I far prefer moving one of the Tuesday shows. If something like POI went to Thursday, I'd be worried about CBS saying "that's enough moves," leaving CSI alone and being forced to put a new drama on Friday or Sunday. Ugh.

I feel like CSI could do well at 9 on Sundays. It's very off brand anything cable has going strong there (Walking Dead or Game of Thrones), any female skewing soapy show ABC puts there, or the FOX comedies. There is no procedural competition in the hour at all. Move the Goodwife to 10. It isn't going to get good ratings anyways, so the move shouldn't hurt

No, CSI goes to Sunday, no way it wouldn't. That's completely in line what they always do.It's all like you said in your first post. Almost.1. One new drama is Wednesday 10 PM.2. Other new drama goes to Tuesday (not clear 9 PM or 10 PM). Putting new drama on Monday 10 PM again... that would match the definition of insanity. While Thursday is out of question, November premiere is too late for 22 episodes season, and too early for 13 episodes series (like Battle Creek seems to be).3. It will cause either NCIS: LA, either POI to be exiled from Tuesday.

here comes the only question mark4.A. The exiled one goes to Monday 10 PM, like you said.4.B. The exiled one goes to Thursday 10 PM, with Elementary at Monday 10 PM, like Moonves hinted.

Hadn't Moonves open his mouth, I'd give 4.A. 99% chances. As 4.B. means one more move, plus it would mean POI is moved for 2nd time in 2 years.But since he said it, I'm giving, I don't know, 33% chances to 4.B. ? Much more CBSish to still be above 50%.

I agree with you, I just did it that way because I feel it is more likely CBS will do it that way. If they wouldn't put CSI: Miami or The Mentalist at 9:00, both of which were stronger when they moved to Sunday, they likely will not with CSI either. I think they see the 9:00 hour as more "prestigious" for Good Wife.

While I know CBS would never do this, it is still interesting to speculate whether Men would increase the retention significantly, moderately or not at all if it flipped places with The Millers. Placing now proven "go it alone" workhorse, 2-1/2 Men, directly after its longtime friend, The Big Bang Theory would be considered squandering Big Bang's value as a new show incubator. That being said, I'm not even sure CBS is confident their in house produced Millers wouldn't hemorrhage lots of viewers without sharing Big Bang's real estate, especially during its freshman year.

Let's not get carried away. Two and a Half Men is not what is used to be. It's not that it's good option for Thursday 9 PM, it's that it's less bad option than Millers. And much less bad than The Crazy Ones were.

I think CBS won't waste TBBT lead-in on show in its final season. I actually think TAAHM could actually end at 9:30 PM. Because The Odd Couple (with Matthew Perry) is, like Millers, CBS Television Studios production. Unless something goes terribly wrong with the pilot, that comedy should be Thursday newbie,. Given it's logical How I Met Your Dad would take HIMYM Monday slot (or 8:30 PM). I guess they would like CBS owned shows to get most of Big Bang Theory wind in the back. So I expect them doing this:TBBT / The Odd Couple / Millers / TAAHM

Later, if push comes to shove, they can always flip Millers and TAAHM, just like it did with The Crazy Ones this winter.

If it is some not so high-profile neebie as The Odd Couple, then i can see it only premiering behind TBBT, then moved to regular timeslot 9:30 PM.TBBT / Millers / TAAHM / newbie

I would have thought it was possible if it looked like CBS was reducing comedy hours. But with six early renewals, they will have four hours again barring another Partners-level development catastrophe. So BBT is almost certainly on Thursday. They would be in real trouble on Thursday without it (even more than Monday).

Personally, I think they'd be better off trying Mom behind BBT starting on Mondays, and then move that hour to Thursdays once football is over and moving The Millers behind either Mike & Molly or 2BG. I know it's a big risk for Mondays, but I also would like to see if Mom could grow significantly placed behind a bigger lead-in, and for them to use Big Bang on something that already has some kind of quantifiable audience. After all, noobs, Millers aside, don't have that great a track record in that slot, if only because all of them were horrendous.

POI to ten happens if they pick up NCIS 3. Otherwise, I advocate for that line-up to stay intact until one or both of the later shows start pulling "time for Fridays/Sundays" ratings.

Not sure about Wednesdays. I don't think a newbie would do well, possibly sub-CSI, however, I don't see Elementary doing well there, either. I think that slot's a no-win if CBS is working off the assumption that CSI will also crater next season.

As an exercise I was only imagining in my mind what 2-1/2 Men's ratings would be compared to The Millers, knowing fully CBS would never attempt such a switch. I am a fan of neither The Millers nor 2-1/2 Men but my belief is that 2-1/2 Men has the potential to return higher ratings retention than The Millers at this time and possibly even moving beyond this season. Yes, of course, Men isn't what it used to be but we've all been writing its obituary for the past few years yet it looks like it has a fair amount of life left in it, It is also a very familiar property in a television environment which has become increasingly more indifferent, if not hostile, toward anything new and unfamiliar. The Big Bang, like The Voice typically inflates the ratings of whatever follows it. Potentially inflating The Millers ratings further is lack of any real competition at the 8:30 hour on the other networks.. Let me be clear and restate my position that I don't like either The Millers or 2-1/2 Men and never have liked either one but my gut tells me The Millers could drop considerably without Big Bang support, to a level below that of what 2-1/2 Men is currently attracting

I agree with both you and Spot w/r/t next years potential scheduling for stalwart and steady CBS. Other than 6 weeks of football on Thursdays during the start of the Fall television season, CBS' schedule will look more or less like it has for a very long time.

22 weeks almost rerun-free with an NFL promotional platform and the potential to premiere out of a double TBBT sounds like a really nice slot to launch a serial...

Except for a Thursday in November, forcing one week off immediately and 2-3 more not long after. And if CBS pick up a serial after this season I'll eat my hat. Elementary will stay put. If it's a week short, CBS could replace a presumptive Men/something comedy hour with a second Elementary on NFL Draft night (which is no place to be airing a dudecom).

Then we must agree that... we agree.Yes, among renewed CBS comedies TAAHM would get best ratings as lead-out of TBBT (except amybe for 2BG, but they'd never move it to Thursday, so irrelevant). Yes, they'd never put it at 8:30 PM. And not even then, considering next fall they'll have 1 or 2 in house produced comedies on Thursday.I missed part you're saying it's just an exercise. Initially I thought you're saying they'll actually put TAAHM at 8:30 PM. Sorry for that.

It would appear that The Americans is following the narrative of Alphas, i.e. an already really good show becomes great, only to suffer ratings declines and be killed in its prime by an uncaring public.

Why can't they promote not-Thursday shows during NFL games? Is there some new rule?

I thought it's clear why wouldn't they premiere new drama in November. It would lost any kind of momentum during holliday season. Especially serialized show. And at the time CBS should decide about back-order 9, they'd have sampled something like 2 episodes only. So, Thursday drama is option only if they'll have no other options. But they have plenty of.

It's just that, with Mondays looking shaky post-Mother and BBT's juice not really carrying throughout Thursday's line-up, it seems really risky to assume that 2 Broke Girls, Mike & Molly and Two and a Half Men are still going to be anchor-worthy next fall. 2BG had to be demoted earlier this season. M&M is the quintessential lead-in-dependent bottom-of-the-hour show. Who knows what 2 1/2's going to do?

If they already have six comedies, that means they have no more than three open slots even if they hold something back. I'm not convinced Friends W/ Unnecessary Modifiers or Bad Teacher would impact Crazy Ones' fate in any direction.

I'll tell you how those 2 will do. They'll both be embarrassing flops, and cancelled together with The Crazy Ones. TCO's fate is not connected with those burn-offs at all.

CBS is done with renewing comedies. They now need only to pick up 4 or 5 comedy pilots, out of which only 2 for fall (very logical considering TNF pushes Thursday premieres to November).

OK then, last fall they had 4 veterans and 4 rookies, with Mike & Molly, and Friends With Better Lives on the bench, with Bad Teacher as a third stringer.

This year Moonves said only two (presumably How I Met Your Dad and The Odd Couple) would premeire in the fall.So then we have 6 veterans + 2 rookies this fall, plus 2 new comedies on the bench, and maybe 5th series ordered (I'd say lone single-cam in the sea of multi-cams) just for the depth. That makes 11 again, only this time around that's 6 instead of 5 renewals.

I'll tell you what those 2 will do. They'll both be embarrassing flops, and cancelled together with The Crazy Ones. Doesn't matter really, because TCO's fate isn't connected with those two burn-offs in any way,

CBS is done with comedy renewals, They only need to pick up 4 or 5 comedy pilots, out of which only 2 for fall (which is very logical considering TNF is pushing Thursday premieres to November).

Here's count. then. Last fall they had 4 veterans and 4 rookies on the schedule, with Mike & Molly and Friends With Better Lives on the bench, and Bad Teacher as a third stringer.

This year Moonves said only two new comedies (presumably How I Met Your Dad and The Odd Couple) would premiere in the fall.So then we have 6 veterans + 2 rookies this fall, plus 2 newbies on the bench, and maybe 5th series ordered just for the depth (I'd say yes, and it to be lone single-cam ordered in the sea of multi-cams). That's again 11, but this time around it's 6 renewals instead of 5.

I just think you, and others, are too quick to dismiss the idea that CBS will order a seventh comedy. Two and a Half Men can easily be held to mid-season proper if it's getting a shortened order. I'm not saying they definitely will, but I'm just not totally convinced it won't happen either.

Then again, I've felt for a while that CBS should think about opening up a Friday comedy hour anchored by the old-skewing Mike & Molly.

I'm certainly in agreement that Fwibble and Bad Teacher will flop, but they're certainly giving Fwibble a fair shot at success.

On a related note, it seems rather strange to me that Thursday Night Football has given CBS staggered premiere dates and a ton of extra promotion time yet they're premiering fewer shows than last fall. I've long felt that networks try to premiere too many shows that they can't adequately promote (looking at you, ABC and NBC) but CBS seems to be erring the other way.