An end to the war on terror: How will US withdrawal from Afghanistan affect India's security?

Even as India was struggling to adjust to the post-Cold War era, it had to choose whether to get on board with the US-led world coalition to fight the 'war on terror' - a euphemism for the classical conflict between the US-led West and the Radical Islam that erupted post 9/11.

And now that this 'war' is nearing a conclusion with the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan next year, India needs to make a quick assessment of how the decade-long turbulence has affected its security interests.

It may be recalled that the advent of the Taliban government in Afghanistan in 1996 had full support from Pakistan. It is only when that regime hosted Osama bin Laden and bared its radical fangs against the West that the US stepped up the drive to oust it.

The run up to 9/11 was then laid, which led to the 'war on terror' - a battle where the identification of the 'enemy' was at best hazy.

India should take the time to assess its own security position as the US prepares to pull its troops out of Afghanistan

This was because the conflict was rooted in those historical, political and ideological factors that had remained dormant across the Muslim world till then. It is a fact of history that after a thousand years of political rise and spread of Islam, the first voice of concern on its decline had arisen from the Ulema, who blamed it all on the deviation of the Muslim rulers from the path of pure Islam.

In the early Nineteenth century the likes of Al Tijani in Algeria, Abdul Wahab in Arabia and Shah Waliullah in India, took on the West through Jehad - that lasted for many years but failed against a superior power.

On the Indian sub-continent its epicenter was where the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa of Pakistan exists today and it left the entire Afghanistan-Frontier Province region highly radicalised.

This historical memory was one reason that made the Taliban-Al Qaeda a formidable adversary for the US in the Pak-Afghan belt.

RELATED ARTICLES

Share this article

Share

However, for India it is not the 'war on terror' but the Pakistan-sponsored proxy war started much before 9/11 and conducted through cross-border terrorism, that remained the biggest security threat even after India joined in the US-led coalition against global terror ahead of Pakistan.

As the US executes its plan of military withdrawal from Afghanistan, India faces the prospect of a determined Pakistan army seeking a stranglehold in Afghanistan, and stepping up its proxy offensive against India. The emergence of the Nawaz Sharif regime has not changed the asymmetric character of the Indo-Pak dialogue.

The US-led West sees a division in the Muslim world between the radicals on one side and the regimes deemed to be helpful, on the other.

The two-fold US strategy of handling the 'war on terror' was to endorse and strengthen the supposed 'divide' in the Muslim world between the anti-West radicals and those regimes which were on the side of the US - and at the same time to step up funding for 'democratisation' of the helpful Muslim countries.

Withdrawal: For India now the biggest concern is the continuing cross-border terrorism sponsored by Pakistan, that dates back to the early Nineties

Even when these regimes were in the hands of dictatorial Kings, Sheikhs or the autocratic Generals, they were given the benefit of being declared as practitioners of 'Political' Islam as against the Radical or Jehadi Islam.

The cause for democracy predictably got pushed aside as the US became even more dependent on these rulers.

The 'Arab Spring,' with its distinct anti-American streak, was a protest against the US-backed presidency of Hosni Mubarak. It brought in the Muslim Brotherhood through the backdoor, but the simmering clamour at the mass level for an Egypt free of external domination together with an Army that still retained the tradition of Nasserite nationalism ousted the Brotherhood to the discomfiture of the US. The Americans are still seeking to establish an equation with the new military regime of Egypt.

The second consequence of the 'war on terror' is the advent of the asymmetric warfare in which terrorists using 'improvised explosive devices' take on the heavily armed opponents siding with the West.

Islamic radicals have developed the 'suicide bomber' as a weapon that is available in plenty because of the successful indoctrination of the youth. At the same time Al Qaeda affiliates working on their own have the intention of getting hold of devices of mass destruction such as a dirty nuclear bomb.

A turbulent Muslim world can damage the cause of global peace for a long time to come. For India the biggest concern is the continuing cross-border terrorism sponsored by Pakistan, that dates back to the early Nineties.

This instrument of proxy war remained in use even when India came on board with the US-led coalition for 'war on terror' along with Pakistan. Using India-specific militant groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba and Hizbul Mujahideen for this parallel offensive, Pakistan planned to cause internal destabilization in India by using terrorism to deepen the communal divide here.

To this end the Pak ISI encouraged Indian Mujahideen, an offspring of Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), to fan the communal sentiments of the minority community and inject militancy in the domestic politics of India. Terrorism meshed up with communal issues can create lasting trouble for India - much to the delight of Pakistan. Our political parties should clean up their act and not allow this to happen.

The learning that is there for India at the close of the 'war on terror' is to deal with our neighbors on a bilateral basis combining a liberal approach to economic relationship with a firm handling of anything that impinges on India's security.

The strategic content of Indo-US relations should be tested on the support that the American policy makers give for India's case in Afghanistan, notwithstanding the increased dependence of the US on the Pakistan army for protecting its interests in the Pak-Afghan belt against hostile Islamic radicals.

Also, India needs to relentlessly work for the defense of its borders in view of the Sino-Pak axis that is clearly working against us.

We must not have any disconnect between our security policy formulation, and the national security estimates based on intelligence.