Brian Walton's news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals (TM) and their minor league system

Putting Cardinals double plays into perspective

As I have been involved in discussions over the season with others about the level of double plays hit into by the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals, I have been challenged to be able to put it into some kind of meaningful context.

A stance taken by some is that given the Cardinals are the highest-scoring offense in the league, it only stands to reason that they would also hit into the most double plays. That might seem reasonable until better understanding the historic rate of twin killings that occurred in 2011. I started by looking at the double plays hit into by the National League leaders in runs scored for the last five years.

Year

NL Runs Leader

Runs

Double plays

DP rank of 16

2011*

Cardinals

734

165

1st

2010

Reds

790

113

T11th

2009

Phillies

820

90

16th

2008

Cubs

855

134

6th

2007

Phillies

892

125

10th

*thru 9/24 – Game 158

Only once in the four years prior to 2011 did the NL run scoring leader also rank in the top half of the league in double plays. None of the clubs were in the top third – until the Cardinals this year. The 2009 Phillies had the perfect combination – the most runs scored coupled with the fewest (16th-most) double plays.

On Sunday, the Cardinals’ double play total this season tied the NL all-time record of 166. I wanted to see how that stacks up over time in a run-scoring context. To that end, I calculated the ratio of baserunners lost via double plays to the number of runs scored by the annual league leader, going all the way back to 1996, the start of the La Russa era in St. Louis.

Year

NL Runs Leader

Runs

DP runners lost

Runners lost/Runs scored

2011*

Cardinals

734

165

0.225

1998

Astros

874

146

0.167

2002

Diamondbacks

819

130

0.159

2008

Cubs

855

134

0.157

1997

Rockies

923

138

0.150

2010

Reds

790

113

0.143

2004

Cardinals

855

121

0.142

2005

Reds

820

116

0.141

2007

Phillies

892

125

0.140

2003

Braves

907

124

0.137

2006

Phillies

865

115

0.133

2000

Rockies

968

126

0.130

2001

Rockies

923

116

0.126

1996

Rockies

961

118

0.123

2009

Phillies

820

90

0.110

1999

Diamondbacks

908

94

0.104

Average

870

123

0.142

*thru 9/24 – Game 158

As the table shows, the combination of an increased quantity of double plays along with lower run scoring is a double whammy that puts the negative impact to the 2011 Cardinals at the very top of the list. In fact, the 2011 Cardinals ratio of double plays to runs scored is over twice that of several recent NL annual run-scoring leaders.

Along with the look back at the past, I pulled the comparable numbers across the NL for 2011. They follow.

2011 NL thru 9/23

Runs

Runs rank

DP

DP rank

DP/Runs

Season W/L

ST. LOUIS

732

1st

165

1st

0.225

W

SAN FRANCISCO

553

16th

114

4th

0.206

W

PITTSBURGH

586

14th

120

3rd

0.205

L

CHICAGO

643

8th

122

2nd

0.190

L

HOUSTON

599

13th

108

T8th

0.180

L

FLORIDA

608

11th

107

10th

0.176

L

SAN DIEGO

575

15th

101

11th

0.176

L

ATLANTA

634

9th

109

7th

0.172

W

MILWAUKEE

685

6th

112

5th

0.164

W

WASHINGTON

606

12th

98

14th

0.162

L

LOS ANGELES

621

10th

100

T12th

0.161

W

COLORADO

705

3rd

110

6th

0.156

L

NEW YORK

694

5th

108

T8th

0.156

L

PHILADELPHIA

685

7th

100

T12th

0.146

W

CINCINNATI

716

2nd

96

15th

0.134

L

ARIZONA

697

4th

79

16th

0.113

W

NL Average

646

109

0.169

Most of the teams in the top half of the league in Runners Lost/Runs Scored ratio are losing clubs. One notable exception is San Francisco, a team with the league’s lowest-scoring offense, but its second-best pitching. (Of course, the latter category is not reflected here.)

As noted at the bottom of the prior table, the 2011 NL team average in double plays is 109. The average is 106 when St. Louis is excluded. What if the Cardinals had just been “NL average” this season?

Double plays

Runs scored

Runners left on base

2011 Cardinals thru 9/23

165

732

1092

2011 Cardinals improved

106

756

1127

Difference

59

24

35

In the above table, I created a hypothetical but conservative, “improved” view of what the 2011 Cardinals might have been. I took the difference of 59 additional runners between the Cards’ real double play total of 165 and the NL average of 106 and spread them proportionally according to the team’s actual percentage of runs scored (40.1%) and runners stranded (59.9%).

That equates to 24 more Cardinals baserunners that may have crossed home plate this season – had there simply been an average number of twin killings instead of a record total.

How many innings that might have extended and perhaps had a domino effect on other scores is impossible to guess. Same with the number of wins 24 more tallies would have enabled. One thing we can say with certainty is this – the Cardinals needed just two more victories to be the hunted rather than the hunter as the final series of the season unfolds.

75 Responses to “Putting Cardinals double plays into perspective”

Who has made the argument that there is a correlation between runs scored and GIDPs? You just posted a bunch of numbers to point out the obvious. There is no such correlation.

You are ignoring, or simply missing, two KEY elements here. The Cardinals lead the league in OBP and are dead last in striking out.

I ran the numbers and through Sunday, the Cards singles plus walks plus HBP total is 98 more than the NL average. That means 98 more baserunners have stood on first base while batters who have struck out 189 times less than the NL average ply their trade. Putting the ball in play sometimes results in bad things happening. Striking out always results in bad things happening.

To expect that a team with those numbers would be average in GIDP boggles the mind.

Check out the much lower BB rates for the top DP culprits, Pujols, Holliday and Molina. Way lower than previous years. Walking less because they are swinging more at pitches that were balls and hitting into DPs?

I’m not sure what their BB rates have to do with them grounding into double plays. Holliday is actually walking at a rate higher than his career average. Holliday and Molina are below their top GIDP numbers and Pujols consistently grounds into a lot. There’s no question he is not having a typical AP year.

Another element that hasn’t been address is the lack of stolen bases. The Cards are last as a team in stolen bases and also dead last (pun intended) in caught stealing.

I’m not sure if numbers are available for how often a runner is put in motion but I suspect that is a contributing factor to the Cards’ poor pct. of successful steals. In other words, the GIDP numbers could be even worse.

To me, the correlation between double plays and runs scored is simple. The common currency is baserunners. Every baserunner erased did not have the opportunity to score (or be stranded). Why be satisfied with league-best scoring without acknowledging that without the historic number of DPs, they could and should have scored more?

OBP is taken into account by holding constant the percentage of runners that scored and were stranded. I don’t see any reason to assume that is not linear as there are more or fewer runners. Further, other teams with high OBP are not grounding into double plays at this frequency.

I would think if the Cardinals started more runners, they might have fewer GIDPs. They certainly would have more caught stealing and likely a lower SB success rate. There is also the question of whether the personnel is suited to this kind of play.

The only wildly unusual number among all these stats being discussed is GIDP. If there is a combo of others that together are way out of line, I don’t see it.

Once again, you are completely ignoring the low team strikeout rate. It’s one thing to have a team full of Adam Dunns, guys that walk and strikeout at historic type rates. This team is fourth in the league in walks while not striking out. 189 less K’s than the league average is a HUGE factor in the number of GIDPs.

As for the stolen base success rate, it is, as I mentioned earlier, already the worst in the league. They are obviously not suited to running. What’s a manager to do?

I have been thinking about strikeout rate and this may be at least partially why we are viewing the picture differently.

I am looking at what happens to the runners already on base, not what happens to the batters. One of three things happens to those runners. They are erased on the bases, score or are stranded. (As I mentioned to Jumbo below, the Mets have actually had more baserunners than StL, but a much higher strand rate.)

In hindsight, perhaps I should have compared GIDP to baserunners, not runs scored. Still when doing that, the conclusion remains the same. The Cardinals have lost a greater percentage of runners via double plays (8.1%) than any other team (next closest is 6.6% with the lowest at 4.3%).

In terms of percent of baserunners scoring, the Cards are not number one. They are third-best in the league. This has really been my central point all along – that they have squandered opportunities, with DPs the biggest standout. (It’s not that third-best isn’t good; it just could have been better.)

(In percent of runners scoring, the Cards trail Arizona and Milwaukee (both division winners) with Colorado and Cincy very close behind. The Cards do have the lowest percent of stranded runners.)

I’ve told you my thoughts on the topic, the shorten up with two strikes and punch me a ground ball philiosophy has led to more DP’s. You expand the zone with two strikes and punch balls that are close but out of the zone and this leads to poor swings put on bad pitches which leads to more ground balls.

It is hard to argue that striking out in these situations is better than hitting into the large number of DP’s but the case could probably be made that it is better to do just that.

I think the MM philosophy is a sound one to prevent a huge number of K’s but it will just have the high DP numbers as a byproduct. Like I said earlier, the one guy who refuses to change his approach, Lance B, doesn’t hit into many DP’s, and he’s as slow as Yadi. But he doesn’t expand his zone. But for the record, I would think that most baseball people would rather have the DP’s than the K’s.

Six of one, a half dozen of the other. You pick your poison. In St. Louis, where the smartest baseball people on the planet live, TLR is smart enought to know that K’s mean more than DP’s. His poison is the DP’s. The St. Louis fans hate K’s. Easy choice. 🙂

“But for the record, I would think that most baseball people would rather have the DP’s than the K’s”.

That as a stand alone statement is likely true………… but it has no bearing in this situation…….. We do not play like most people in baseball………. The entire “lets be aggressive” on certain counts…..is based on the premise that all other discriminating values are sustained……as related to strike zone recognition………… add the AP anomaly……an exception to all rules……… and you end up with this mess…………. Freese has to hit the ball out of the infield with the bases loaded no outs……all the pitcher can do is try to induce the DP ball……..that cuts the strike zone to only the lower half…… 2/1…..he starts his hands ….and then chases to validate the swing…..trying to shoot something up the middle……………… Hitting coaches are usually smart guys working with a whip and some meat, because lets face it……these guys aren’t Rhodes Scholars ………. its money time……its the domain of good pitch and smart hitting that produces the winner………

The Dave trip………for the last game…….. is unusual to say the least……. showing up on Thursday seems plausible…….. flying to Houston seems more ceremonial ……….

Tony likely goes Punto / Skip…………..he has to have a lead off………what, Jay and Punto

You are getting stuck on the “statistical side” of your evaluation CRD.
Not all chases end up as DP’s……some get through the infield…score runs…….
Swing and a miss rarely does a whole lot. Some are suggesting its better to takes your chances………………. in truth, expression of skill and virtuosity “always” avoids high contrasting valuations like these………. a good hitter tries to select the best options…..attempting to sustain a high qualitative “awareness” of what those options are……….. the better this is done….and prepared for…the fewer DP’s there are……….. we are a team of sloppy opportunists……..led by example………Tony cannot enforce any…….because he will not enforce the one/worst…..

I agree, all balls put in play are not DP’s. Some are hits that produce runs. WC is also right imo that this team does a poor job of situational hitting and I’m not sure if its because of a lack of work on those situations or just a failure to come through in the situation.

Its hard to come down on the hitting of this team this year as I’m fairly positive that they are in the upper division of run scorers.

Granted, I am being a technical here, but a ground ball that doesn’t result in two outs is not a DP, it’s a force out or a ground out with an error, etc. If you had said it is better to put the ball in play rather then K then I would have no argument. But then I go back to what I have always said, if you don’t swing at pitches out of the strike zone then you are not likely to K unless you have a blind umpire behind the plate. Swing at pitches in your zone and if you hit into a DP, so be it.

for me putting this in perspective means it is a non-issue in the big picture of thing. Would I like to see them ground in to less DP’s – of course. Is it frustrating as hell when they do — definitely. Bt focusing on DP’s when we lead the league in runs scored is somewhat silly. This team has so many other problems that are much more worrisome and have affected areas where we are not the best in the league. That is where I would be focusing my analysis.

There is a correlation between everything in this world………………. The answer to this quandary has already been given……………….. the RELEVANCE of supposedly knowing or quantifying or CORRELATING activities with such complex influence is problematic………….at best…………… the Pujols effect in full in this one………. with a new hitting coach and the absents of AP/TLR tactical influenced competitive stratagems……..the Cardinals will return to the norm………… Research the last 2 years of MM films and interviews…………. what is never included in any of these inquiry’s, is the efficiency of our opponents observational/tactical response with their pitch strategies…………… obvious??????????? hardly……
local fans seem seem to ignore what is so apparent to opposing scouts………tony has bent over backwards to keep AP from facing what he now faces……… he has used bad judgments from a competitive stand point all year long………….. as an example, let me remind you of the early season worries about opening up first base……..leaving an automatic walk to AP…….. it influenced every thing from game situations to the character and the nature of the 1 and 2 hitters……………. think about it……..Tony likes to have a power bat hitting 2nd????????????? so he isn’t expected to sacrifice??????????? opening up first?????? oh yea……….number two will get more better pitches………give me a break……..when it was discovered that AP had brought a new approach to the plate this year…..and that it was discovered to be inferior………the opposition attacked him relentlessly……..his distorted opportunism creating the jog to first double play monster that we have enjoyed so much……………. Brian……I thought your work was relevant…….it dispelled certain myths…….

I just got around to reading the other double play themed thread on this blog.

Did somebody really suggest that it’s better to strike out than hit into a double play with a runner at third?

And then make the claim that swinging at balls outside the strike zone is a reason for hitting into double plays?

Good Gawd!

This team hits into a lot double plays because:
A) High OBP – Tops in NL
B) Slow team speed – Last in stolen bases and success rate
C) High contact hitters – Last in K’s by wide margin
D) Hard contact hitters – Check below

This team averages hitting line drives 20.1% of the time compared to the league average of 18.9% The ground ball percentage is also higher than the league average, 47.8% to 45.2%.

Guys without great speed that hit the ball hard on those trajectories and don’t strike out often are bound to hit into more double plays than average. I’ll take it every time over watching guys stand there and watch strike three go by time and time again.

Think about this: 189 less strikeouts than the average team means there are roughly 125 more balls put into play with 0-1 outs. There’s a very good chance that about half of those occur with a runner at first base. You don’t expect to set a record but nobody should be surprised that the 2011 Cardinals hit into a lot of DP’s.

Of course, players not running out ground balls is also one cause for higher double play rates.

Making contact with balls outside of the strike zone will indeed often lead to poorer results than making contact with balls inside of the strike zone. Connecting with low pitches in particular will result in increased ground ball rates. For instance, Pujols is swinging at 31% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone to him this season compared to a 21% career mark and he’s connecting with a career high 78% them compared to a 69% career mark. There’s some shift in the norms within the data over the years, but not that much.

Good one Nut……………….. Pitch to contact is a viable strategy only when you have a very sophisticated defensive positioning system………. Cards do………. Dave’s system is all about where you might best induce contact that yields a positive result……….DP, by necessity is the gold ring……….
I’m going to take a “wild guess” and suggest that Tony must of asked Dave at some point ” Dave, where are all of these DP coming from…………”? …….I just bet Dave had an opinion…..based on his expertise in that area………… So……how come that didn’t helped WC …… Why didn’t knowing the reason lessen the intensity of our record run………… Answer……….read the thread……..

The Braves losing streak has been more from pitching (injuries) than batting.

And to reiterate the subject of my first ever post: Pujols contract-

Does it make the union happy if AP is “offered” the biggest contract in history even if he doesn’t accept it from another team? The Cards FO has the job of convincing everyone the offer made is the highest we can go. They have already started the pr machine in motion as I believe it was the PD (or maye St. Louis Today) that reported their last offer 22-25 mil per year for 9 years was the highest they could go.

Agreed, Ksbm. Losing Jurrjens and Hanson was a huge blow to the Braves. Then Hudson had to leave his last start and went to the hospital. 2/5 of the rotation down late in the season and one question mark.

Tony puts the speed merchant up front in the 2 hole……….. brings Yadi into the action at 6……… wisdom……….or is he trying to set up AP? Freese will go OPO but is a liability after…..looking for 1st and 3rd situations for Albert not runners at 1 and 2nd for Holiday……….

Tony outsmarts himself……… now they pitch around Molina to get Theriot/Jay / pitcher………and he starts the runners pressuring a boarderlind swing by Theriot at 3/2…………like Jay who is Ofer-ever is a threat…………. I like Craig 6th in center

Text book problem………………… it likely costs them the season……..Philly put in a nobody in the 7th to pitch…………… bases juiced………….. no outs…….ball has to leave the infield……..any college team would have him doing push ups and riding pine…………. repeat….. that pitch was no accident…Houston knew what to throw…..even if the go to 3/1………..

The lowly Mets have had more baserunners than the Cardinals this season yet only 2/3 the DPs (110 vs. 166 coming into today). Their problem is a league-high stranded runners total.

Edit: Colorado and Cincy are similar. Each has had less than a dozen fewer baserunners than StL, but a much lower DP rate and higher strand rate. Of course, as already noted, all three have scored fewer runs than StL.

my point here is there is no situational dialog or expectation with these guy…….. MM does not teach a paced swing……………Jay should have been thinking take it deep….take the fly ball toward the Crawford boxes again……….he was trying to turn on two pitches…..swinging as hard as he could…….

The problem isn’t the loss……………..its how this will effect the Braves……….. They win a game and they have a playoff at least…………they can see the light at the end of the tunnel………. Tony had to have given the green light Theriot……………. Dave is coming down for a reason…….and it ain’t baseball….

Phillies aren’t going to sweep the Braves……….their best line is to hope for a playoff that the Cardinals win……they could foreseeably groom for that possibility…… thats if we can beat Houston twice………. Westbrooke really isn’t the man for the job…………lets hope we hit…………

I would guess the same hitting tactics that have resulted in them leading the league in runs has resulted in the high number of double plays. I don’t doubt that if you take away the aggressiveness that has resulted in the DP’s you would also cut down on the number of runs scored. Is that what people want? Less DP’s with less runs?

Yes, I understand, just as I hope you understand my related but different point. To your comment, I am not sure how hardwired aggressiveness at the plate is to both high run scoring and high DPs or how that might be quantified. Pitches seen per at-bat? Could they score as much but hit into fewer DPs if they were more selective situationally? If they started more runners? Don’t know…

Last night was a tough loss but I don’t believe anyone is in a panic. The Braves are just horrible right now offensively and will lose at least one, maybe two games verses Philly, who isn’t much better right now than even the Braves. I think the Cards will get in.

The surprising thing right now is that the Phillies seem to be trying hard to beat the Braves………for a chance to play the Cardinals, who may very well be the hottest team in the game today. This Cards team could go all the way imo. And I’ll even go out on a limb and say I’m betting that the Cards beat the Phils in round one. How’s that for drinking the kool aid?

Drinking something,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, DBacks have a few pitchers………Phills remember what happened last year………….. they want the Cardinals…..and momentum……… AP has started his “I have control” pulling off the ball cycle again………… If he doesn’t catch it right now…..thats trouble……….Molina is producing, but with it comes the “moody” flippant pitch calling………..thats shown itself again yesterday……..
Houston is not a good team…………. if by some mysterious chance Theriot plays SS today…… or starts anywhere….. break out the tar and feathers……….

The Freese start at the 2# spot was an Albert provision the killed us yesterday………. but in truth Descalso looks like a Zombie at the plate………….. MM is not even close to being an adequate game situation hitting coach………. TLR never was………. We have to win both games. The Phillies will try to bleed one to guarantee a playoff…….the figure the Cards win at home on Thursday helps their cause. They want ST Louis………

I imagine most of the youngsters are emotionally drained. The mental toughness that is required to play for Tony does wear one out at the end. Freese and Jay are grinding to be sure. I commend those kids on making it through to this point and remaining sane. It is not for the weak of heart.

The Cards will win the remaining two games. Wandy was the one guy I thought could possibly beat them by keeping the Stro’s in it till the end.

If there is a playoff I believe the Cards will win and then off to Philly for round one.

AP has finished strong, we agree that he plays for himself but that is who he is, and that is a pretty damn good player, even with his faults. Yadi has been clutch down the stretch as well.

The team has had as good a September as one could have expected and has put itself in the thick of the race. What more could anyone expect.