WEBVTT
>> HURRICANE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS CONTINUE TO GET
EXTENDED NORTH.
WE NOW HAVE A HURRICANE WATCH UP
THE SAVANNA RIVER.
THAT MEANS WITHIN 48 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS.
THE RED HERE IS WHERE THEY HAVE
HURRICANE WARNINGS, CLOSER TO
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE STORM,
THEY'RE WITHIN 36 HOURS OF
SEEING HURRICANE CONDITIONS.
WE'LL SEIZE THOUGH WATCHES AND
WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AS
WE GO FORWARD IN TIME.
HERE'S A LOOK AT HURRICANE
MATTHEW AND THE CENTER OF IT
RIGHT ABOUT IN THERE, TO MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST, AFFECTING
THE BAHAMAS AND HEADING IN THE
DIRECTION OF FLORIDA.
WINDS REMAIN AT 120 MILES PER
HOUR, IT'S A CATEGORY THREE.
IT WAS A FOUR LAST NIGHT BUT A
LITTLE LAND INTERACTION WITH
SOME MOUNTAINS IN HAITI CAUSED A
SLIGHT WEAKENING.
BUT IT'S GOING TO BE
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT GOES OVER VERY WARM
WATER -- WATER AND FAVORABLE
CONDITION.
AND THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS IT
STRENGTHENING BACK UP TO
CATEGORY 4 AS WE HEAD TO
TOMORROW NIGHT.
AT THAT TIME IT'LL BE CLOSE TO
THE FLORIDA COAST.
TOO CLOSE TO CALL WHETHER A LAND
FALL COULD HAPPEN OR AT LEAST
THE EYE WALL TOUCHING THE
FLORIDA COAST AS IT GOES BY.
THERE YOU SEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
THE SYSTEM IS VERY CLOSE, THE
CENTER VERY CLOSE TO DAYTONA.
TO FRIDAY NIGHT, MOVING PAST US
AN THE BIG QUESTION AT THAT TIME
WILL BE, IS THE CENTER GOING TO
BE OFF THE COAST OR WILL IT BE
HUGGING THE COAST?
WE WANT THE CENTER TO BE OFF TO
THE EAST.
IF THAT HAPPENS, THAT NEGATES
THE EFFECT OF STORM SURGE.
IF THE CENTER HUGS THE COAST,
WE'LL GET AT LEAST SOME STORM
SURGE COMING ON SHORE AND THAT'S
THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF A
HURRICANE.
YES, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE HIGH
WINDS THAT WILL CAUSE TREES TO
GO DOWN AND HEAVY RAINS.
WE WANT TO AVOID THAT STORM
SURGE IF WE CAN AVOID ANYTHING
OUT OF THIS SYSTEM.
WE'LL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF THE
MODELS HERE, ALONG WITH THE
FORECAST,S THE FORECAST FROM THE
HURRICANE CENTER.
THAT REPRESENTS THE AVERAGE
MARGIN OF ERROR IN THE FORECAST
THAT GOES OUT IN TIME.
A LOT OF MODELES ARE IN THE
MIDDLE HERE, KEEPING THE CENTER
JUST OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA.
A COUPLE OF THEM TAKE IT UP INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA BETWEEN BEAUFORT
AND CHARLESTON.
AND THEN WE HAVE THE USGS MODEL
HERE WHICH IS CLOSE TO FLORIDA
AND THEN TURNS IT JUST OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA AS WE HEAD TO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF
SATURDAY.
WE ALSO HAVE THE OTHER MODEL
WHICH SHOWS A LANDFALL IN
FLORIDA, HAS IT OVER DAYTONA
HERE, FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN IT
COMES UP AND HUGS THE COAST HERE
IN GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT.
THAT'S THE SCENARIO THAT IF IT
HAPPENS WILL GET AT LEAST SOME
STORM SURGE COMING ON SHORE.
THAT'S WATER COMING ON HIGHER
THAN THE AVERAGE TIDE THAT WOULD
FLOOD WELL INLAND FROM THE
COAST.
THAT COULD TRACK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
AS WELL.
LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT WE CAN
EXPECT IN TERMS
ANOTHER STORM
SURGE, WANTED TO GET TO THAT
HERE.
THIS IS THE CURRENT PROJECTION
FROM THE PATH GIVEN BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AS WE
GET INTO TOMORROW EVENING, YOU
SEE ALL THIS COLORS HERE, THAT'S
THE STORM SURGE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE STORM.
THERE'S NOTHING ON THE LEFT
SIDE, AS IS TYPICAL OF A
HURRICANE.
IF YOU KEEP THE CENTER OFFSHORE
YOU KEEP THE EXTREME, ABOVE
AVERAGE WATER AT THERE.
AS IT COMES NORTH, IT'S GOING TO
BE CRITICAL, FRIDAY NIGHT, IS
THE CENTER HUGGING THE COAST OR
IS IT OFFSHORE?
THE HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST
TRACK IS RIGHT OUT IN HERE.
IF THIS ENDS UP HUGGING THE
COAST, THEN WOULD BE IN THESE
COLORS RIGHT THERE WHICH WOULD
FALL IN THE RANGE OF SOMEWHERE
IN THE SIX TO 10 FOOT RANGE OF
EXTRA WATER COMING IN OFF THE
OCEAN.
THE HIGHEST OFF TO TH EAST OF
EXTREME AMOUN, IS RIGHT NOW,
WE ARE IN THE VERY LOW RANGE
HERE, MINIMAL STORM SURGE THREAT
BUT AGAIN ONLY A SLIGHT
DEVIATION OF TRACK MAKES A BIG
DIFFERENCE WHETHER WE'RE IN THE
MINIMAL THREAT OR INTO A HIGHER
STORM SURGE THREAT.
PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR EVACUATION
CONSIDERATIONS IN YOUR AREA.
IT'S JUST TOO EARLY TO CALL.
WE HAVE TO PREPARE FAZZ THAT
STORM SURGE COULD HAPPEN AND IT
VERY WELL COULD IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
IF THERE IS STORM SURGE THE
WATER LEVELS GO BACK DOWN.
WIND WISE, YOU SEE THE WIND TO
OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT, WE GO
TO FRIDAY AND GET TO FRIDAY
EVENING.
THAT'S WHEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH,
ESPECIALLY FROM SAVANNA SOUTH.
ALSO DOWN TO JESSOP.
WE GET IN TO LATER FRIDAY NIGHT,
WE'RE SEEING NOT ONLY TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS HERE IN
YELLOW, WE'RE ALSO LOOKING AT
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COMING UP
AT LEAST ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THAT'S WHERE THE
TRACK OF THE CENTER THAT HAS IT
A LITTLE BIT OFF THE COAST.
STILL GET SOME HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS POTENTIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL COUNT YESES RIGHT ON
THROUGH 2:00 A.M. SATURDAY AND
THEN IN THE LOW COUNTRY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGHEST
WINDS STARTING TO COME UP FROM
THE SOUTH THERE, WE'LL SEE SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
BOTTOM LINE IMPACT FOR THE
STORM, THIS IS WHAT TO LIKELY
NOW, WE'LL BE FINE TUNING IN TO
GET CLOSER BECAUSE WE'LL BE
SCRUTINIZING THIS TRACK IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOUR.
RIGHT NOW LOOKING AT HURRICANES
FOR WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THAT 75 TO 80
YOU GET IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE COUNTIES.
STILL TALKING ABOUT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF POWER OUTAGES, IN
SOME CASES IF YOU DO GET THE
WINDS, THE POWER OUTAGES COULD
LAST FOR AT LEAST TAIS.
ALSO TALKING ABOUT FLOODING FOR
POTENTIAL FIVE TO 10 INCHES OF
RAIN.
THEN INLAND AREAS B TALKING
ABOUT DAYTON, BACK TO
SWAINSBORO, WINDS FROM 40 MILES
PER HOUR WEST TO 60 MILES PER
HOUR.
CAUSING SOME AREAS OF POW ORE
OUTAGES AS WELL.
STILL COULD BE SOME AREAS OF
FLOODING THAT COULD OCCUR WITH
THAT.
FINALLY THE SEVEN-DAY FORECAST
TO SUMMARIZE EVERYTHING.
MATTHEW EFFECTS COMELING IN
THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY LATE
FRIDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND THEN SEE MUCH
IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER THAT.
A NICE DAY TOMORROW, GOOD DAY TO

We continue to track Category 3 Hurricane Matthew moving northwest between Cuba and the Bahamas. The storm will track close to the Florida coast Thursday night then make a move more to the north.

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The big question for us is how close to our coast will the center be when it passes by Friday night and Saturday. If the storm center is even a little to our east, the storm surge threat will be much lower than if the storm hugs the coast. Storm surge is the rapid rise of water that happens as a hurricane makes landfall. It is the most damaging aspect of a hurricane. It is still too close to call as to whether the center will stay off our Georgia and South Carolina coasts.

Whether the storm tracks over or just east of us, we will see significant rain and wind. A track just a little to our east would result in hurricane force winds mainly confined to the coastal counties Friday night into Saturday. Winds of 40 mph and higher gusts can be expected inland for areas mainly west of Interstate 95.

We should see improving conditions by late Saturday as the storm pulls away to the northeast. Keep up to date with our latest forecast on your WJCL app as well as Twitter and Facebook.