CLICK DU JOUR – New York magazine, “The Speaker Is Mute But Not Unintelligible: What John Boehner is thinking,” by Jennifer Senior: “He’s a conservative, certainly, but also an institutionalist, an old-school politician who likes to do deals; as his months-long effort to concoct a ‘grand bargain’ with Obama on the budget showed, he has an interest, at 63, in leaving a legacy of bipartisan accomplishments behind him. … [H]is speakership, of late, has become a case study in minefield walking, forcing him to balance one survival instinct against another. If he doesn’t make an attempt at a serious [immigration] bill, he’ll have almost nothing to show for his leadership … But if he tries to forge a deal with the Democrats and let the bill come to the floor, … he’ll face a revolt from his own rather large backbench … Boehner is one of the most beleaguered powerful people in Washington. … Of course, there’s another powerful leader in Washington who’s inconveniently introverted and allergic to conflict. His name is Barack Obama. …

“The real reason that Boehner is so reminiscent of Don Draper has little to do with booze and cigarettes. It’s that he’s a creature of his own invention -- and, like Don, carries both vestiges of where he came from and an unabashed taste for the stuff he’s earned. In Washington, Boehner may seem like an improbable speaker -- too laid-back for the job, devoid of the hungry striver’s metabolism one finds in so many politicians. (‘Born with extra glands,’ as Jack Valenti once said of LBJ.) But Boehner does have it, if you look at where he started and where he is now. … [B]eneath that passive exterior, he, like many self-created people, is exerting a great deal of unseen energy trying to preserve himself.” http://nym.ag/17fte0e

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FIRST LOOK – HAPPENING TOMORROW: President Obama has invited four local Univision and Telemundo television anchors -- from Dallas, Denver, L.A. and New York/New Jersey -- for a day of behind-the-scenes access as part of the “Live from the White House” series for local affiliates. It'll be the first time that all of the “Live from the White House” anchors have broadcast for Spanish-language outlets. In addition to interviews with senior administration officials and reporting live from the South Lawn, each anchor will get a sit-down interview with President Obama. His message: “He'll continue to fight for bipartisan immigration reform, because it's in line with our nation's values and in the best interest of our nation's economy.”

--WEST WING MINDMELD: “The President will make the case for bipartisan, commonsense immigration reform to an audience that is highly engaged on this issue, and with whom the President has a great deal of credibility when it comes to making these reforms a national priority.”

--Gallup.com, “I n U.S., More Relate to Democrats Than GOP [48-36] on Immigration,” by Lydia Saad: “Americans are more likely to say their views on immigration and immigration reform align with the Democratic Party's than with the Republican Party's policies, although fewer than half relate to either party on the issue. … Six in 10 Hispanics agree more with the Democratic Party on immigration, while 26% agree more with the Republican Party.” http://bit.ly/13kqjyP

HOUSE AND SENATE Rs BOTH PLAN TO MAKE THIS A BIG THEME – Speaker Boehner’s office blog post this a.m., “If ObamaCare Is So Wonderful…”: “Top Democrats have been all sweetness and light about ObamaCare lately … Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid … took things up a notch on Sunday when he declared in an interview on [‘Meet the Press’] that ObamaCare ‘has been wonderful for America.’ … [I]f ObamaCare is so wonderful that the employer mandate needs to be delayed, why not delay the individual mandate too?” http://1.usa.gov/14TdIXF

DRIVING THE DAY – JUSTICE DEPT. LOOKING INTO FEDERAL CASE AGAINST ZIMMERMAN, BUT CHANCE OF SUCCESS LOOKS SLIM -- AP’s Pete Yost and Eric Tucker: “Calls for the Justice Department to look into the shooting death of Trayvon Martin reverberated as soon as George Zimmerman was acquitted of state charges in a Florida courtroom, but it may be even tougher to mount a federal case against Zimmerman. The department says it's reviewing evidence to determine whether criminal civil rights charges are warranted, but legal experts see major barriers to a federal prosecution -- including the burden of proving that Zimmerman, the former neighborhood watch leader, was motivated by racial animosity -- and say Justice officials would likely be saddled with some of the same challenges that complicated the unsuccessful state case. …

“Alan Vinegrad, the former U.S. Attorney in the Eastern District of New York, [said:] ‘There are several factual and legal hurdles that federal prosecutors would have to overcome: They'd have to show not only that the attack was unjustified, but that Mr. Zimmerman attacked Mr. Martin because of his race and because he was using a public facility, the street.’ The department opened an investigation into Martin's death last year but stepped aside to allow the state prosecution to proceed. It said in a statement Sunday that the criminal section of its civil rights division, the FBI and federal prosecutors in Florida are continuing to evaluate the evidence generated during the federal investigation, plus evidence and testimony from the state trial. …

“ Though the Justice Department does have an established history of using federal civil rights laws to try to convict defendants who have been previously acquitted in related state cases, experience shows it's almost never easy getting guilty verdicts in such high-profile prosecutions. … [F]ederal prosecutors pursuing a civil rights case would need to establish, among other things, that Zimmerman was motivated by racial animosity, even though race was barely mentioned at the state trial.”

--JOE SCARBOROUGH, writing on POLITICO, “Zimmerman trial expands deep divide”: “The Trayvon Martin case highlights more than the flaws of Florida law or the inadequacies of courtroom justice. It also paints in vivid display the vulgar state of American political culture. … The Zimmerman verdict showed just how politicized every speck of American life has become for a hyper-partisan political class that has little in common with most Americans. In fact, they are probably why most Americans hate politics. … I am angry that George Zimmerman could chase a teenager through his neighborhood, ignore a dispatcher’s pleas, make racially charged statements, provoke a confrontation with a young man armed only with Skittles, and pull the trigger that ended that teenager’s life, only to walk away without as much as a misdemeanor attached to his name.

“But I also know that the laws of Florida favored the defense, that the prosecution overreached in its efforts to convict Zimmerman on a second-degree murder charge, and that we will never know which man was screaming for help in the moments that George Zimmerman killed Trayvon Martin. … I … get … why over 90 percent of African American voters have been voting against GOP presidential candidates for most of my life. Conservative commentary and GOP stand-your-ground laws only exacerbated that divide. If Republicans are to take back the White House anytime in the next generation, that reality has to change. After this week, it has definitely become a longer, harder slog.” http://politi.co/1bfXwEM

--PRESIDENT OBAMA emailed statement, 2:56 p.m.: “The death of Trayvon Martin was a tragedy. Not just for his family, or for any one community, but for America. I know this case has elicited strong passions. And in the wake of the verdict, I know those passions may be running even higher. But we are a nation of laws, and a jury has spoken. I now ask every American to respect the call for calm reflection from two parents who lost their young son. And as we do, we should ask ourselves if we’re doing all we can to widen the circle of compassion and understanding in our own communities.

“ We should ask ourselves if we’re doing all we can to stem the tide of gun violence that claims too many lives across this country on a daily basis. We should ask ourselves, as individuals and as a society, how we can prevent future tragedies like this. As citizens, that’s a job for all of us. That’s the way to honor Trayvon Martin.”

--N.Y. Times 1-col. lead, “PRAYER, PROTESTS AND ANGER GREET FLORIDA VERDICT: RENEWED RACIAL DEBATE -- President Urges Nation to Accept Acquittal of Zimmerman,” by Adam Nagourney, with 15 contributors from around the country: “Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York, one of the country’s leading advocates of gun control, said the death of Mr. Martin would continue to drive his efforts. … “‘Shoot first’ laws like those in Florida can inspire dangerous vigilantism and protect those who act recklessly with guns.’ … The reactions to the verdict suggested that racial relations remained polarized in many parts of this country, particularly regarding the American justice system and the police. … There were no reports of serious violence or arrests as the day went on, a contrast with the riots that swept Los Angeles after the verdict in another race-tinged case, the 1992 acquittal of white Los Angeles police officers in the beating of Rodney King.” http://nyti.ms/1aGUNF3

EXCLUSIVE – MICHAEL SCHERER NAMED TIME MAGAZINE’S WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF – TIME Managing Editor Rick Stengel will email the staff today: “We’re in a period of great editorial change and momentum. We have been producing exceptional journalism, photography, video and design this year. We are also in the midst of a sizable investment in the relaunch of TIME.com and our mobile platforms by the end of the year. This is allowing us to both innovate in our journalism and bring in new talent to create it. So here’s the news—a mixture of promotions and new hires. … Michael Scherer will become TIME's new Washington Bureau Chief. Michael's combination of talents -- his gift for reporting and writing, his feel for story conception and his understanding of the web and social media -- makes him an ideal fit … Scherer joined TIME in December of 2007 and became the magazine's White House correspondent following the 2008 campaign. He has written a number of compelling cover stories in recent years, including The Informers, The Gunfighters, The New Sheriffs of Wall Street and Yo Decido: the Rise of the Latino Voter. … Before coming to TIME, he worked as a Washington Correspondent for both Salon.com and Mother Jones magazine.

“Ben Goldberger becomes Nation editor, responsible for stories from outside of DC for both the magazine and the website. Since arriving at TIME in 2012, Ben has distinguished himself with his sharp editing and thinking, and recently oversaw our Rahm Emanuel cover story … Maya Rhodan joins the Washington bureau as a reporter. Maya was born and raised in Chicago, graduated with honors from Howard University in 2012, and has done stints at City Paper, Essence, and Washingtonian. Most recently, she has been the National Newspaper Publisher Association's DC reporter. … [T]he person behind all of these changes is Michael Duffy. The promotions of Scherer and Goldberger will enable Duffy to focus more fully on his role as executive editor, overseeing a wider variety of stories, projects and editorial partnerships—and it might even allow him to write a little more.”

RON FOURNIER SIGNS BOOK DEAL with Crown for “IN THE BALLPARK OF PERFECT: A Father's Journey to Understanding My Son And What is Fair to Expect of Our Kids.” The memoir grows out of Ron’s National Journal cover story about his struggle to connect with his mildly autistic son. It will use this story of father-son bonding to explore what it means to accept our kids on their own terms, rather than trying to push them to fit societal norms and expectations. Ron, editorial director of National Journal, will take a book leave starting in August to research and write. His goal is to layer Tyler's story with social science research, as well as stories of other parent-kid relationships, to write a memoir that helps all moms and dads -- not just those of special needs kids -- navigate the modern-day challenges of parenthood.

--Fournier’s book was acquired by Rick Horgan at Crown from Andrew Stuart at The Stuart Agency. Horgan has placed more than 90 titles on the New York Times list. Stuart is also the agent for Carl Cannon, who connected the two.

** A message about BP's commitment to America: Over the last five years, BP has been America's largest energy investor. Each year, we invest an average of $11 billion here -- and produce nearly enough oil, gas and renewables to light the entire country. In the process, we support nearly 250,000 American jobs. Find out more at http://bit.ly/BP-Fuels-America. **

IF YOU’RE IN NEW YORK THIS MORNING, please join us at 10 a.m. for Playbook Breakfast with Major League Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig, at Bank of America Tower, One Bryant Park, Sixth Avenue at 42 nd Street. Outside cameras welcome. Please RSVP here. http://bit.ly/PlaybookMLB

WHY 2016 CYCLE IS STARTING FASTER ON BOTH SIDES THAN 2012 -- Maggie Haberman: “Barely eight months removed from the 2012 presidential saga, super PACs are sprouting to buck up Hillary Clinton, and GOP hopefuls are already hitting the early-state circuit — and attempting to woo donors. … What’s driving the early ramp-up is different for each party: For Democrats, it’s the intense interest in a second Clinton campaign, which looks likely but not certain. On the Republican side, the rivalry among a large number of potential hopefuls is prompting several of them to start laying the groundwork more than three years out. ‘We have a deep bench of 2016 prospects, and it’s obvious that several of them are already preparing in case they decide to pull the trigger,’ said Henry Barbour, a Republican National Committee member who backed Rick Perry and then Mitt Romney in 2012. ‘One of the clear lessons from 2012 is if you want to go the distance, the candidate and the campaign better be ready.’ …

“[U]nless former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush runs, there is no particular Republican candidate who is a favorite of the donor class — a contrast to 2012, when Romney locked up money support early, and 2008, when next-in-line John McCain and Rudy Giuliani elbowed other candidates out of major donor support. … Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who worked on John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign, … declared the Democratic side of the equation essentially over if Hillary Clinton runs, despite a growing acknowledgement among operatives and the former first lady’s supporters that she will most likely face some type of challenge from the left. She’s ‘effectively an incumbent, perhaps challenged within the party, but it’s hard to see what I would describe as a mainstream challenger’ attempting to stop her, as was the case in 2008, Devine said. …

“‘I think anybody who is considering running for president in 2016 is thinking about how their supporters would set up an organization to support their campaign independently, and Hillary is already doing that on the Democratic side,’ said one Republican operative involved in the 2012 cycle. ‘They’re ahead of the game in terms of having an outside organization.’ … ‘Given his advantage, Romney tried to shorten the primary season by limiting his campaign schedule at the beginning, granting only a few interviews and declining early debates to avoid overexposing himself,’ said Republican strategist and former Romney spokesman Ryan Williams. ‘The 2016 field will likely include more serious candidates who will need to start much earlier to compete for the big donors, top staff and grass-roots activists that they will need to win.’ …

“[U]nlike 2012, the large swath of top-tier Republican candidates all have day jobs that fuel speculation about the effect their actions could have in a presidential campaign. Both Rubio and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) are wrapped up in the immigration reform battle … Christie is running for reelection and has publicly refused to discuss a potential presidential bid, even if others freely dissect his moves for 2016 implications. Paul has been perhaps the most active, traveling over the past two months to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina to rally the conservative faithful. And then there’s Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who has been traveling to places like Indiana and is making other moves that could help him if he runs. … If Bush does not run, Christie would be among the favorites to inherit the bulk of Wall Street Republican donors — though he can’t court them while he’s a sitting governor because of SEC rules.

“Fred Malek, a veteran Republican bundler, said people are likelier to give to a cause right now and to focus on the 2014 cycle than to commit to a 2016 candidate. … ‘These primaries and caucuses are increasingly fought not in states, they’re fought in the media,’ said Republican strategist Alex Castellanos. ‘There are more piranhas waiting in the pool for you.’ Despite some of the current jockeying, he added, there’s still an incentive for top-tier candidates to wait as long as possible before formally entering the race. ‘We’ve seen how destructive a long process can be,’ Castellanos said. ‘Very few can withstand it.’” http://politi.co/15f38cl

FIRST LOOK -- INTERNET ASSOCIATION WEBSITE LAUNCH TODAY: “Designed to be unlike any other website in Washington, the Internet Association's new website … include[s] the ability for users to ‘mark up’ legislation [by] leaving comments and edits. … Lawmakers will be able to post draft legislation for comment as they seek input from the Internet user community. … Hot topics and issues critical to the freedom and future of the Internet are delineated in an easy-to-navigate format … [L]eading edge scroll-down interface [is] tailored for individualized user experience.” www.internetassociation.org

DIGITAL DOWNLOAD – WSJ A1, “Pay-TV Providers Bid to End Sports Networks' Win Streak: Cable, Satellite-TV Firms Push Back on Rising Cost of Sports Programming,” by Matthew Futterman, with Shalini Ramachandran: “It is a well-kept secret of sports on television: Aside from the National Football League and the biggest games of the year in a handful of other sports, such as Tuesday night's Major League Baseball All-Star Game, the TV audience for sports is tiny, amounting to about 4% or less of households … Yet in the average market, sports channels such as ESPN and regional sports networks account for 19.5% of fees paid by cable and satellite operators … The average monthly cable bill in the U.S., before taxes, is now $73.44 … In the television season that finished in May, ratings for most major TV networks fell sharply. Sports … has been unaffected by those trends. … [V]iewers watched 97% of sports programming live last year … They watched just 75% of non-sports programming live, down sharply from 93% in 2008. …

“[O]ver the past 18 months, cable and satellite TV operators have started looking more closely at sports-viewing habits, using data collected from set-top boxes. … In the past three years, the percentage of households subscribing to pay television has stagnated at about 90% … after years of steady growth …. Last year there were 213,000 new pay-television households, although 997,000 new households were formed … There are now five million ‘zero-TV’ households in the U.S., compared with two million in 2007, according to Nielsen. A younger generation is starting to treat cable and satellite television the way they treat landline phones. All major sports leagues allow fans to subscribe to services that stream games online … Fees for ESPN and ESPN2 [paid by cable companies] jumped to a combined $5.71 [per subscriber] in 2012, from $1.84 in 2002 … Fox Sports … plans to launch FoxSports1, a new national sports cable network next month, and plans to charge distributors less than $1 per month for each subscriber.” http://on.wsj.com/15wvjmZ

--POWER SHIFTING FROM HOLLYWOOD TO SILICON VALLEY – N.Y. Times p. B4, Nick Bilton on Bits blog, “Disruptions: Hollywood, or Silicon Valley: Where’s the Money?”: “Tech investors are by and large richer than movie moguls. According to Forbes, Jerry Bruckheimer, creator of the ‘Pirates of the Caribbean’ franchise and the television series CSI[,] is considered one of the most successful film and television producers in the world, with a net worth of $850 million. John Doerr, a general partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, who invested in Google and Twitter, has an estimated net worth of $2.8 billion … Silicon Valley can even claim to be home to those with more fame. Mark Zuckerberg, a co-founder of Facebook, has 18.5 million followers on the site. Leonardo DiCaprio has a comparatively modest 5.5 million followers … [But] Zuckerberg is in part so famous because of the global reach of the film ‘The Social Network.’” http://nyti.ms/143vJEx

MEDIAWATCH – TINA BROWN emails the Daily Beast staff: “Jamelle Bouie is joining us from The American Prospect as a staff writer covering politics and national affairs. Jamelle will be based in our DC bureau from August 1st. In addition to The Prospect, his reporting and analysis has appeared in The Nation, The Atlantic, The Globe & Mail, CNN.com, and the Washington Post. Jamelle grew up in a military family, raised in Virginia Beach, … and graduated from the University of Virginia with degrees in government and political thought. … @jbouie.”

** A message about BP's commitment to America: BP invests more in America than in any other country, and we reinvest every dollar we earn here and more. We employ more than 20,000 people in all 50 states, making us the nation's second-largest oil and gas employer. We hired over 2,700 Americans last year. These investments, the energy they produce and the jobs they support are part of our commitment to America. Find out more at http://bit.ly/BP-Fuels-America. **

****** A message from UnitedHealth Group: What does it take to create a modern, high-performing, simpler health care system? Expanding access to care through proven state-based coverage and employer-sponsored insurance. Making health care more affordable with consumer-directed care and value-based payments. Supporting and modernizing Medicare to meet the complex health challenges of America’s seniors. And reinvesting in health to support research and innovation. Learn more about these ideas at http://www.unitedhealthgroup.com ******

Authors:

About The Author

Mike Allen is the chief White House correspondent for POLITICO. He comes to us from Time magazine where he was their White House correspondent. Prior to that, Allen spent six years at The Washington Post, where he covered President Bush's first term, Capitol Hill, campaign finance, and the Bush, Gore and Bradley campaigns of 2000. Before turning to national politics, he covered schools and local governments in rural counties outside Fredericksburg, Va., for The Free Lance-Star, then wrote about Doug Wilder, Oliver North, Chuck Robb and the Bobbitts for the Richmond Times-Dispatch, where he nurtured police sources on overnight ride-alongs through housing projects. Allen also covered Mayor Giuliani, the Connecticut statehouse and the wacky rich of Greenwich for The New York Times. Before moving to The Times, he did stints in the Richmond and Alexandria bureaus of The Washington Post. Allen grew up in Orange County, Calif., and has a B.A. from Washington and Lee University, where he majored in politics and journalism.