Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.

Can all the lib dreams actually come true and the “geniuses” in the ALP just think the best thing to do is steam on ahead? I am just amazed at the stupidity….you don’t normally see this level of repeated incompetence from a major party go unchallenged

So what are the powerbrokers to do. Keep on protecting their power with a Gillard blocker, or face the dunny brush of Rudd. Stupid thing is the worse they let it become the more they need somebody to save the day, the more they have to acquiesce.

Sorry, but that’s the final straw for me. Get the key changes through (love the idea of bringing the carbon permit auction forward to Abbott proof the price on carbon) and bring back Kevin around August.

Whatever damage his micro management did in 2010 is nothing compared to this kind of pain in the polls. This is an excellent government on policy and doesn’t deserve to be in this position. I’m a big fan of Julia Gillard, I think she’s done an incredible job in the most difficult circumstances but this is simply too much. Don’t want to say that, but it’s simply the highly unplesant reality of the situation.

FYi, part of this has to do with the fact that Abbott hasn’t been put in his box and left alone. It doesn’t work and the polls are evidence of that. Rudd understands the values game better than anyone and having some DLP history in his family, he knows all the trigger points to hit Abbott where it hurts

Previous thread. It gives rise to doubt. As does the thousands cheering the Prime Minister today.

I am not saying Labors stocks are low. I am just questioning these particular results.
I am saying they are skewed by media talk all week saying PM fail. When the opposite is actually the case most of the time.
If the PM had actually failed Labor would be the opposition. The media timed its heat and noise to peak as this poll was being taken.
They got the result that Murdoch wanted. He is after regime change do not doubt it for a second. He who pays the piper calls the tune.

Previous thread. It gives rise to doubt. As does the thousands cheering the Prime Minister today.

I am not saying Labors stocks are low. I am just questioning these particular results.
I am saying they are skewed by media talk all week saying PM fail. When the opposite is actually the case most of the time.
If the PM had actually failed Labor would be the opposition. The media timed its heat and noise to peak as this poll was being taken.
They got the result that Murdoch wanted. He is after regime change do not doubt it for a second. He who pays the piper calls the tune.

Rudd will be crucified second time round by #newscorpse – sort of a reverse Lazarus rising. If the ALP succumb to the hysteria to change leaders its all over red rover.

2.30pm tomorrow interest rate cut, budget surplus next week leading to more of the same, June the Clean Energy Advance hitting everone’s bank accounts, July 1 the carbon tax does not destroy the world….

best to just don the flak jacket andbatten down the hatches

oh, and if peeps want to make a little difference, cancel your Foxtel subscriptions

Yes the trend has been that. However I still say this is an outlier poll. Designed to bring the worst possible result to accelerate earlier efforts at downward polling pressure.
Murdoch is after regime change and has developed this process to an art form.

I want published polling questions. Then we have transparency. We would know if it was push polling or not. We know now not to trust NewsCorp on anything.

See thousands cheering PM today. See Qanda audience. They seem to contradict these polls.

While labor is bad I do not think it is as bad as this. Part of the reason is no mobile phone polling. Part of the reason is the heat and noise in the media to make this poll particularly bad.
Negative poll reinforcing negative poll.

Think someday this country will owe thanks to tony windsor for his vision of optic fibre to the home and do it now,his revelations about abbott on lateline probably will not even be reported on the abc ,such is the state of lowlife journalism in this country,rather hard to find any with principles ,let alone stand up for this country.
Hope someday all those with nothing but regime change will be named and shamed by future historians.

the narrowing was coming after christmas, it was coming after Rudd was seen off, it is comong after July… and what is there a widening back to where it was last year …. and btw … 16 months to the election unless the govt wants to go over the 3 years … can be done but not a good look.

They are all delusional. I expect they will keep on saying Gillard should stay PM even if the got to 15%

And though Rudd is far more accepted than Gillard I think they poisoned that well so much it would be very difficult for him to come back. In other words, the Labor morons burned the only genuine option they had. Well done Crean, Swan, Gillard…way to lock the fire doors. The building is burning and the fire exits locked.

About this blog

William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.