Tuesday, October 23, 2007

The housing market is taking a nosedive, and speculation is everywhere. The question then becomes who is right? Is the housing market a speed bump, or is it a long term problem that will continue to haunt homeowners for many years to come? Data is mounting and its becoming more and more obvious that the end is not as near as many would like. My opinion is the housing market will not make a substantial recovery until 2010 or 2011, unless the government steps in and makes sweeping and drastic changes.

The vast number of sub prime and neg am loans funded in the past 2 years have not even begun to affect us as most of them have not reached their caps and have not reset as variable loans. As the foreclosures rise and home values decline farther, borrowers who closed loans in late 2005, 2006 and 2007, when money was still flowing from Wall Street and thrift banks, will be in poor shape and will be facing the same frightening issues that many are facing today. The bottom line is thousand of Americans will be faced with the overwhelming issue of owing more money than their home is worth, and will have double if not triple the payment burden.

Over the housing boom, the percentage of Americans who "own" their home has spiked, and as the boom crashes and burns, this trend will take a giant step backwards, bringing us back to the previous level of homeownership. Mortgage brokers, real estate agents and lenders have been selling a lie. First, not everyone deserves or can afford to own their home. Second, home values do not always go up. Yes some areas are more stable than others, but every homeowner should know the risk ans shouldn't be naive about the possibilities. The strict mortgage standards of the past were based in logic, while recent years have been marked by near insanity. Borrowing 100% to purchase a home is a risky move, particularly if you finance using an interest only or Option Arm. If you do not pay down the mortgage and your home value does not increase, you will be in a tight spot.

My hope is that Americans learn from this mistake and take homeownership more seriously in the future. Although lenders and brokers were pushing a fairy tale, borrowers bought into it. In that regard, we all share the blame.

92 comments:

At fault!
said...

How about the buyers who bought speculating the market would continue to rise, pushing brokers and agents to get them in at all cost! The blame game is old, from the borrower to Wall Street everyone looked the other way....If things would still be good people would be bragging about their Great Real Estate Investment knowledge.

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