Wednesday, October 5, 2016

How long before vehicles drive themselves?

On July 20, 1969, Neil Armstrong became the first man to land
on the moon. It was a technological feat that seemed impossible. Fast forward
less than 50 years later, and we are all carrying around mobile phones that
pack more
computing power than the Apollo Guidance Computer.

According to Moore’s Law, the number of transistors per
square inch on integrated circuits doubles every 18-24 months – i.e. computers
get twice as powerful every two years. It is the exponential growth of
technology that both excites and frightens us.

What is so exciting about rapid technological growth is all
the cool stuff we get: smartphones, tablets, Bluetooth, the internet, improved
fuel efficiency, etc. What is frightening to us is the danger of technology
taking over and/or being used negligently or maliciously.

Autonomous vehicles highlight the good and bad of new
technology.

We can argue the effects on industry all day long, but the
idea that cars are close to driving themselves is pretty awesome. The problem
is that even though we are closer to driverless cars than ever before, we are
still a long way from it. However, too many people do not understand that.

A recent report
by the Traffic Injury Research Foundation in Canada reveals how misinformed
many people are regarding autonomous vehicles. Nearly two-thirds of respondents
claimed to be familiar with AV technology. However, 1 in 6 said driving an AV
would make it unnecessary to pay attention to the road, 24 percent would be
more likely to drive tired, 10 percent would actually take a nap, and 9 percent
would drink and drive.

Anyone who is legitimately familiar with AVs can tell you
why this is dangerous. AVs only take over the driving function in certain
situations (on the highway) and only in certain circumstances (favorable
weather, light traffic). Even then, the driver has to be 100 percent attentive
and ready to take over at any moment. Yet too many people believe that we
skipped straight from standard motor vehicles to the Jetsons.

Correction: If you watch the Jetsons intro, George
clearly has his hands on the steering device. Cartoons from the ‘60s were more
realistic about vehicles of the future than some people are about vehicles of
the present.

Technology advances at an exponential rate, but there are
still limitations. As Land Line reported
earlier this year, consumer groups and auto safety advocates urged the White
House to slow down on autonomous technology. As the fatal crash involving an
autonomous Tesla showed, we are putting too much faith in technology that is
not quite ready yet.

Sometimes technology advances faster than our brains and
society. Too many people still don’t understand the repercussions of social
media. Some of our brains still cannot grasp the idea of putting your thoughts out
to billions of people in the matter of seconds. In some aspects, society has
regressed as a result. Oddly, our brains are moving faster than AV technology.
We think it can do more than it can rather than the other way around.

It takes years, sometimes decades, for technology to go from
its infancy to mass market daily use. Autonomous vehicles are still in their
infancy. It will be many years before vehicles become completely driverless.
Safety is dependent on this realization.

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