Weak U.S. retail sales prompt small yen comeback

SaumyaVaishampayan

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Weaker U.S. economic data characterized foreign-exchange activity on Friday, pushing the dollar lower against the yen as U.S. stocks fell.

U.S. retail sales declined 0.4% in March, the most in nine months, compared with economist expectations of a 0.1% fall.

“It’s been a somewhat confusing day. We had weaker data in the U.S. The yen has come back a little bit because of that,” said Alan Ruskin, a currency strategist at Deutsche Bank in New York.

The dollar
USDJPY, +0.83%
bought ¥98.92 in recent trade, down from ¥99.73 late in Thursday’s North American session.

The U.S. currency on Thursday reached ¥99.94, but ran into resistance as it approached ¥100, a level that many analysts expect the dollar to break through for the first time since April 2009.

The yen is on track to lose about 2% versus the dollar this week. The Japanese currency has been hit hard since the Bank of Japan on April 3 outlined an aggressive monetary-easing plan aimed at defeating years of deflation in the world’s third-largest economy. The dollar had traded at ¥92.89 just before the central bank’s policy announcement.

Japanese 10,000 yen.

In the wake of the bank’s massive stimulus program, yields on benchmark 10-year Japanese government bonds have dropped to record lows, though the trade had been uncharacteristically volatile. Yields and prices move inversely.

“All else remaining equal, we predict that extremely low JGB yields will continue to push the Japanese yen to fresh lows against currencies with higher interest rates and better yield prospects,” wrote DailyFX quantitative strategist David Rodriguez in a note this week.

The central bank plans to double its JGB holdings to 190 trillion yen ($1.9 trillion) in two years by buying government bonds of all maturities.

“The short-term correlation between the Japanese yen and JGB yields trades at its highest in a decade. In other words — don’t fight the Bank of Japan,” Rodriguez said.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs said Thursday it has revised its three-, six- and 12-month forecasts for dollar/yen to ¥102, ¥105 and ¥105, respectively. It’s also projecting the dollar will trade at ¥110 at the end of 2014.

Interest had earlier shifted to Europe from Asia as uncertainty surrounding the Cyprus bailout resurfaced, leading to weakness in the euro.

The Cyprus finance ministry denied media reports that the island nation has asked for more assistance ahead of a Eurogroup meeting because of higher-than-anticipated bailout costs. The Eurogroup, or euro-zone finance ministers, is scheduled to meet on Friday in Ireland to finish the Cypriot bailout package.

The euro
EURUSD, -0.5086%
slipped slightly to $1.3082 from $1.3103 in late North American trade on Thursday. The shared currency fell to 129.41 Japanese yen
EURJPY, +0.31%
from a previous close of ¥130.67.

Rehn: Need faster EU banking union

(1:45)

Rules on how to deal with troubled banks in the euro zone should be accelerated, and the currency bloc’s banking union should be in place by 2015, the European Commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, Olli Rehn, says in an interview.

“The euro is seeing a bit of a hiccup across the board,” said Christopher Vecchio, a currency analyst at DailyFX.

But he emphasized that the Cypriot situation wasn’t dangerous enough to derail the shared currency, for now.

“Today’s news isn’t something that would provoke a material shift in sentiment regarding the euro. Just needs to be kept on the radar,” said Vecchio.

Still, Cyprus has taken away some of the enthusiasm for the euro in the near term, said Richard Franulovich, chief currency strategist at Westpac Institutional Bank

“The highs seen yesterday are probably it for now. We’re going to trend sideways for a few days,” he said.

The ICE dollar index
DXY, +0.39%
a measure of the dollar against a basket of six other major currencies, rose to 82.295 from 82.255 late Thursday.

The WSJ dollar index
BUXX, +0.37%
a rival gauge that uses a slightly larger basket, rose to 73.51 from 73.43.

Among other major currency pairs, the Australian dollar
AUDUSD, +0.1742%
fell to $1.0501 from $1.0546 late Thursday. The Aussie had fallen Thursday after data showed the country’s unemployment rate rose to its highest level in more than three years, but the currency later recouped its losses.

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