ecology, economy, community

Tag Archives: heatwave

The eighth week of the “Climate Change, Challenges and Solutions” MOOC has come to a close and for me it has been a really worthwhile experience. In the final week we approached the question “Is the future of the climate still in our hands?” Very clearly it is within our reach to either maintain the current path of high, and growing, CO2 emissions or to change our direction.
If we choose not to change the way that we create power by burning fossil fuels, if we persist with a culture based on a dig it up, use it and throw it out philosophy then our outlook is very poor indeed. Travelling that path, by the year 2100, atmospheric CO2 will have reached levels that exceed 1000ppm and will possibly be as high as 1500ppm. This will mean that the average world temperatures will perhaps be 6degC warmer than today. It would take one million years for the earth’s natural weathering systems to remove this amount of CO2 from the atmosphere.

CO2 reached 400ppm late last year. It hasn’t been that high for 650,000 years

Travelling this path will mean more violent weather events, more floods, heat waves, wildfires and droughts. I doubt that our current flawed economic and social system will survive these shocks but if it did survive we would then be facing a slow but inevitable rise in sea level as the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets melt, an unstoppable increase that will raise sea levels by up to 70 meters. CO2 persists in the atmosphere for a long long time and this is one reason why we know that the timelines for reducing our emissions are critical.

An info graphic put out by the Climate Council

There is an alternative.
The current trajectory will see us locked into rising emissions, higher temperatures and long term devastation but we can change this outcome and still make a measured transition to a new way of living. If we base our future on fairness, sustainability and equity we could actually use this crisis to embrace change. Science has given us the tools and the all the information that we need to move to a sustainable and resilient world, only vested interests and politicians stand in the way. We can change the politicians and now even some of the vested interests are beginning to recognise that they too need a sustainable world order.
Clearly we must price pollution at a rate that is proportional to the damage caused to the ecosystem, the economy, the society and the individual. We probably need to support sunrise industries that will help to cut pollution, industries like wind and solar power and of course we must stop burning fossil fuels. These critical first steps need to be taken in the near future so that we can start to reduce our emissions during this decade, meet or preferably exceed the undertaking we made to reduce our emissions.
Once we have started along this path we can turn our minds to finding effective ways to draw down atmospheric CO2. Maybe carbon capture and storage will finally become a viable option, although I doubt if it will ever be a cheap one. Leaving forests standing is a very good way of locking up carbon for hundreds of years and the amount of carbon stored continues to increase throughout the life of the trees. Tackling our throw away society and demanding that industries find a use for all their waste products so that instead of a linear system of constant through-put we have a circular system that minimises new resource input and virtually eliminates waste.
Bearing in mind that true sustainability also requires equity to be successful, wealthy nations like ours should be prepared to help disadvantaged nations to move directly to a clean renewable energy supply skipping the dirty coal fired power that destroys the climate. They may be more successful than we are, because the large vested interests that are keeping fossil fuels alive and preventing the development of distributed power are not in such a powerful position as they are here.

We are now into week seven of “Climate Change – Challenges and Solutions” and this week we examined the possibilities and options for mitigation and adaptation. On the mitigation front, having seen the pitfalls of geoengineering solutions looming large on the horizon we turned our attention to the built environment, which is responsible for a high percentage of our emissions and also to renewable energy which can give us a good start in reducing them.
I have some background in this area so I was aware of the huge strides that have been made in the design of energy efficient buildings, but of course most of the housing stock and many commercial buildings pre-date sustainable design. Much of our housing is built close to the ocean and only a few metres above sea level, will it survive repeated major flooding as sea level rise and storm surges impact on the coast? Will it be able to deal with the rising temperatures that are anticipated?
We looked at the impact of heat islands in built up environments and the increased number of deaths that are related to heat waves. This course is being run out of the UK so the question of wild fire was not even considered but flooding was certainly discussed.
We were asked to review the built environment in our own locality. This small house, still under construction, will be adequately insulated, it faces due North (correct orientation for the southern hemisphere) and has deep eaves. This will allow winter sunlight into the house and being small in size it will be easy to heat in winter. It has one large west facing window which could be a problem in summer but an external blind will take care of that. The eaves will shade the glass in summer and there is cross ventilation to assist in cooling. I think there will be a degree of climate resilience built into the house.

A 1980s house

This architect designed house is an example of a house built before climate change became an issue. It faces almost due west to take advantage of the views over the lake but because it has a very wide covered deck it wouldn’t have too much of a problem until fairly late in the day and it would be easy to drop canvas blinds along the deck. Being built on a slope it has some rooms under the living area which will remain cooler and give some resilience as the climate warms.
I think that where site conditions have been properly considered during the design stage the old housing stock will have a level of resilience but probably much of the developer led housing that has been built in the last twenty or so years will be pretty much a write off eventually.
And to give an idea of the location a map because I simply couldn’t cope with the suggested geo tags. The star is the existing house and the teardrop is the site of the new build that is underway.
The second half of the week was devoted to renewable energy. It is clear that this is the “get out of gaol (almost) free” card. The UK has about 11% renewable energy at the moment and are looking to reach 30% by 2020. There are some active anti wind organisations and they are also going to build a new nuclear power station. They seem to think that nuclear is cheap (ha ha!) and renewables are expensive which is crazy.
Denmark on the other hand has 30% renewable energy now and is expecting to have 50% by 2020 and 100% renewables by 2035. Go Denmark! I think it has been made quite clear that one of the biggest obstacles to dealing with climate change is the entrenched opposition from fossil fuel protagonists. We can’t afford to let them win. It is also interesting to note that the gulf states are putting in solar power in order that they can get the most out of the last of their oil reserves by selling them to people like us who refuse to recognise the reality we are facing.
Next week we are looking ahead to the medium and longer term effects of climate change. I approach it with some trepidation.

Friday 18th January 2013, a beautiful morning in Bermagui, fine and hot but with a refreshing breeze coming off the ocean. On the beach an energetic group explored contact improvisation and “fight – dance” movement. As the day progresses the heat is mounting, we caught up with friends for lunch and shared some sustainably harvested fresh fish, fresh calamari and chips of unknown pedigree.

Around lunchtime the temperature rocketed reaching a very uncomfortable 46 degrees centigrade, a record for the area. It was so hot we had to swim but by then sea was up and there was quite a rip, the beach we chose was not patrolled and the surf was getting wild so we did not stay long in the water.

I went home and when I opened the door the house felt cool by comparison but when I checked the temperature it read 36C – usually way outside my comfort level! I shook the sand from my shoes, my beach towel, my hair, my ears, my bathers, my cleavage and had a quick shower but I left the car full of sand – I will deal with that tomorrow.

An hour or so later a gusting wind blew the outside furniture across the deck and as the cool change came through the temperature dropped by about 20 degrees. I walked down and fed the chooks.

The gum trees rained dead leaves. The grass crackled underfoot. Elsewhere in the State many fires were burning, some only 50kms away and Rural Fire Service volunteers were working stressed and exhausted probably as they battled to save houses and livestock. I just wish we could get some rain.