Borg: IN THE NATION, TWO MONTHS REMAIN IN AN INCREASINGLY BITTER, HIGH-STAKES PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN. IN IOWA, REPUBLICAN STATE LEGISLATORS AND THE DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR NURSE FRAGILE COMPROMISE LEGISLATION INTO NEXT WEEK'S SPECIAL LEGISLATIVE SESSION. PERSPECTIVE FROM IOWA JOURNALISTS ON THIS EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS."

FUNDING FOR THIS PROGRAM WAS PROVIDE BY "FRIENDS," THE IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION FOUNDATION... GENERATIONS OF FAMILIES AND FRIENDS WHO FEEL PASSIONATE ABOUT THE PROGRAMS THEY WATCH ON IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION;

AND BY THE IOWA BANKERS ASSOCIATION... FOR PERSONAL, BUSINESS, AND COMMERCIAL NEEDS, IOWA BANKS HELP IOWANS REACH THEIR FINANCIAL GOALS.

ON STATEWIDE IOWA PUBLIC TELEVISION, THIS IS THE FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 3 EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS." HERE IS DEAN BORG.

Borg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

Burns: THANK YOU.

Borg: JENEANE, I'LL START WITH YOU. WE'VE JUST, AS I SAID, CONCLUDED THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION. THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IS FRANTICLY TRYING TO PUT IOWA INTO THE WIN COLUMN IN THIS ELECTION. IT DIDN'T WIN IT IN 2000. DID THE PAST WEEK DO ANYTHING TO HELP ACHIEVE THAT?

Beck: I THINK THAT THE PRESIDENT DID HELP HIMSELF. I DON'T KNOW IF IOWA WOULD BE IN THE WIN COLUMN YET, BUT I DO THINK HE HELPED HIMSELF. HE'S BEEN IN IOWA THIS WEEK ALREADY. HE WAS HERE ON TUESDAY. HE WILL BE HERE AGAIN THIS WEEK AND HAS VISITED IOWA MORE -- IF YOU CONSIDER HOW MANY ELECTORAL VOTES WE HAVE, HE'S VISITED IOWA MORE THAN ANY OTHER STATE TO WIN THOSE, AND WE ONLY HAVE A FEW COMPARATIVE TO MANY STATES. BUT I DO THINK HE'S HELPED HIMSELF. IOWANS THAT WENT TO HIS SPEECH AT THE FARM PROGRESS SHOW ON TUESDAY SAW MUCH OF THE SAME SPEECH HE GAVE AT THE CONVENTION, AND THERE WERE PLENTY OF THEMES THAT I THINK WILL SIT WELL WITH IOWANS, INCLUDING SAFETY. I THINK THAT'S AN ISSUE THAT PLAYS HERE IN THE HEARTLAND. EVEN THOUGH WE DON'T FEEL THE THREAT OF TERRORISM LIKE MAYBE PEOPLE DO ON THE COASTS, IT'S STILL SOMETHING IOWANS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT AND I THINK IT PLAYS WELL.

Glover: DEAN, I THINK PEOPLE IN THIS STATE AND A HANDFUL OF OTHER STATES SHOULD GET USED TO THIS KIND OF INTENSITY, BECAUSE I THINK THIS IS THE KIND OF INTENSITY WE'RE GOING TO SEE RIGHT THROUGH NOVEMBER 2. AND I THINK THE REASON FOR THAT IS BECAUSE A LOT OF PEOPLE TALK ABOUT 17 TO 20 BATTLEGROUND STATES. I DON'T THINK THE NUMBER IS ANYWHERE NEAR THAT LARGE. I THINK WHEN YOU GET DOWN TO END OF THE DAY, THERE ARE GOING TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SIX AND TEN STATES THAT ARE ACTUALLY IN PLAY, THAT ARE UP FOR GRABS, THAT ARE GOING TO SETTLE THIS ELECTION. IOWA IS GOING TO BE ONE OF THEM. SO IF YOU ONLY HAVE SIX OR TEN STATES THAT ARE REALISTICALLY IN PLAY, YOU'VE GOT A LIMITED AGENDA WHERE YOU'RE GOING TO GO, SO YOU'RE GOING TO BE IN PLACES LIKE IOWA A LOT.

Yepsen: I THOUGHT THE PRESIDENT HAD A GOOD CONVENTION, AND I THINK HE DID HIMSELF SOME GOOD. HE SPENT ABOUT THREE NIGHTS WHIPPING UP THE BASE -- THE CONSERVATIVE BASE OF THE PARTY. A LOT OF KERRY BASHING. MAYBE TOO MUCH RED MEAT, BUT CERTAINLY THAT'S NECESSARY. REPUBLICANS IN THIS STATE, DEAN, BELIEVE THAT ONE OF THE REASONS THAT THEY LOST IOWA IN 2000 BY ONLY TWO VOTES A PRECINCT TO AL GORE WAS THEY LEFT VOTES ON THE TABLE, THAT THERE ARE REPUBLICANS WHO DID NOT REGISTER. I LOOKED IT UP THE OTHER DAY. THERE WERE ABOUT 35,000 REPUBLICANS WHO WERE REGISTERED WHO DIDN'T SHOW UP AT THE POLLS, AND SO YOU HAVE TO WHIP UP THE BASE. HE DID A GOOD JOB OF THAT. I THINK HE ALSO DID A GOOD JOB OF TALKING ABOUT WHAT HE WANTED TO DO FOR THE FUTURE, WHICH IS WHAT A LOT OF UNDECIDED VOTERS WANTED TO SEE. AND AS WE ALL KNOW, THOSE ARE -- THAT 3 TO 7 PERCENT OF THE IOWA ELECTORATE THAT'S UNDECIDED ARE PERSUADABLE, THOSE ARE PEOPLE WHO ARE GOING TO DECIDE THE ELECTION.

Borg: ON THE FLIP SIDE, DOUG, ANYTHING THAT YOU SAW IN THIS PAST WEEK AT THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION THAT WOULDN'T HAVE PLAYED WELL IN IOWA, OR DID YOU THINK IT WAS ALL PRETTY POSITIVE FOR THE PRESIDENT?

Burns: SOME OF THE EARLY SPEAKERS -- I THOUGHT GIULIANI PLAYED VERY WELL, ALTHOUGH IT'S SORT OF INTERESTING TO THINK OF A SPEAKER BEING FROM AN URBAN AREA PLAYING WELL TO A RURAL AUDIENCE. BUT THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF CONCERN WITH ZELL MILLER'S SPEECH. I JUST DON'T THINK ANGER PLAYS VERY WELL ON TELEVISION. I THOUGHT HE CAME OFF AS VERY SHRILL. IN FACT, HE SORT OF REMINDED OF THIS CHARACTER FROM A CARL HIAASEN NOVEL, SORT OF A WILD SOUTHERN GOVERNOR NAMED SKANK WHO JUST KIND OF LOSES IT ALL AND ENDS OF FINDING HIMSELF IN THE MARSHES AND SORT OF OUT OF REALITY. AND ANGER JUST DOES NOT COME ACROSS VERY WELL ON TELEVISION. IN THE ACTUAL CONVENTION HALL, IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE BUT NOT FROM WHERE I WAS SITTING IN CARROLL, IOWA.

Borg: DOUG, YOU MENTIONED CARROLL, IOWA, OVER IN THE FIFTH DISTRICT. EITHER SENSE WHAT THE TONE IS THERE OR, OVERALL, LET'S TURN TO JOHN KERRY.

Burns: SURE.

Borg: DID THAT CONVENTION OR JOHN KERRY DO ANYTHING YOU THINK THAT WAS PARTICULARLY HELPFUL IN IOWA OR IN THE FIFTH DISTRICT?

Burns: I THINK JOHN KERRY IS IN TROUBLE. I THINK IN ATTEMPTING TO CAMPAIGN ON A BIOGRAPHY WITH SOMETHING THAT APPEALED TO MANY DEMOCRATS, BECAUSE THEY WANTED TO HAVE A WAR HERO, SOMEBODY THEY FELT COULD STAND UP TO THE EXPECTED ATTACKS, THE SORT OF ATTACKS THAT MAX CLELAND HAD TO DEAL WITH DOWN IN GEORGIA -- AND KERRY IS A GOOD CLOSER, BUT THIS TIME HE'S CLOSING AGAINST A PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, NOT AGAINST HOWARD DEAN, A CANDIDATE WHO IN THE LAST WEEKS WAS RUNNING SORT OF AN ODD, ODD COMMERCIAL CAMPAIGN WITH TELEVISED PHOTOS OF HIMSELF IN FRONT OF A BARN BY HIMSELF. HE BROUGHT IN A LOT OF OUT-OF-TOWN ACTIVISTS WHO WERE SORT OF ODD-SOCK CHARACTERS. AND THIS TIME IT'S GOING TO BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT FOR KERRY TO MAKE THAT CLOSE AND SORT OF BE THE SEA BISCUIT HERE.

Glover: IF WE STEP BACK FOR A SECOND AND LOOK AT THE SUMMER AS A TOTALITY, THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION AND THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION, I THINK WE STARTED THE SUMMER SEASON WITH THIS ELECTION A DEAD HEAT, A FLIP OF THE COIN. I THINK WE END THE SUMMER WITH THE ELECTION BEING A DEAD HEAT, A FLIP OF THE COIN. YOU'RE RIGHT, ANY TIME YOU RUN AGAINST A SITTING PRESIDENT WHO'S PAYING ATTENTION, IT'S A TOUGH, TOUGH ROW TO HOE, SO THAT'S A TOUGH CHALLENGE FOR KERRY. BUT THE POINT BEING, IF YOU LOOK AT ALL THE POLLS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SUMMER, THIS WAS A DEAD HEAT AND IT'S GOING TO BE SOLVED IN LATE OCTOBER, EARLY NOVEMBER. AT THE END OF THE SUMMER, IT'S GOING TO BE A DEAD HEAT, FLIP OF THE COIN, SETTLED IN LATE OCTOBER, EARLY NOVEMBER. SO IN A SENSE, BOTH CANDIDATES GOT WHAT THEY WANTED, AND NEITHER CANDIDATE SCORED A KNOCKOUT BLOW.

Yepsen: KERRY HAD A GOOD CONVENTION. THE POLLING SHOWS HIS NUMBERS WENT UP ABOUT TWO POINTS. AN INCUMBENT PRESIDENT WILL HAVE ABOUT HALF THAT FOR A BUMP, SO YOU CAN LOOK FOR BUSH TO GET ONE PERCENT. KERRY'S INTERNALS WENT UP AND THEN JOHN KERRY JUST FELL APART THE MONTH OF AUGUST. I THINK THEY WERE OFF THEIR GAME IN RESPONDING TO THESE SWIFT BOAT ADS. IF YOU BUILD YOUR CAMPAIGN ON BIOGRAPHY, THEN YOU'RE VULNERABLE TO ATTACKS ON THAT. THAT'S NOW MORPHED INTO AN ATTACK ON HIS TESTIMONY BEFORE THE SENATE AFTER THE WAR. IT HAS HURT KERRY. IT'S KNOCKED HIM OFF STRIDES. HIS POLL NUMBERS HAVE GONE DOWN. AND THEN THESE TELEVISION IMAGES OF HIM OUT WIND SURFING ON VACATION -- I'M SORRY, I DON'T KNOW MANY PEOPLE IN IOWA WHO WIND SURF. THIS IS NOT A MAN OF THE PEOPLE. THIS WAS AN EASTERN ELITIST IMAGE OF A GUY TAKING PUNCH AFTER PUNCH AFTER PUNCH, JUST OUT TO LUNCH IN NANTUCKET. NOW, KERRY IS BACK IN THE GAME NOW. I MEAN HE WENT TO OHIO. HE IMMEDIATELY STARTS CRITICIZING DICK CHENEY FOR GETTING FIVE DRAFT DEFERMENTS. A TOUGH ATTACK. HE SHOULD HAVE SAID IT A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. SENATOR KERRY'S WIFE IS HERE IN THE STATE THIS WEEKEND CAMPAIGNING. SO THEY'RE TRYING DESPERATELY NOW TO KIND OF GET BACK IN THIS GAME.

Beck: AND HE'S GOING TO HAVE TO DO SOMETHING TO COUNTER THE CONVENTION IN THE SENSE OF IN THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION WHAT WAS ABSENT WAS KERRY'S SENATE RECORD. IT'S LIKE IT NEVER HAPPENED. IN THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION WHAT WAS ABSENT WAS OSAMA BIN LADEN. YOU WENT STRAIGHT FROM 9/11 TO SADDAM HUSSEIN, AND THERE WAS NO MENTION HARDLY OF OSAMA BIN LADEN AND THAT HE WAS STILL OUT THERE. AND WE WENT FROM ATTACK TO WAR, AND THEY SORT OF MADE EVERYONE FEEL LIKE WE WENT TO WAR BECAUSE OF 9/11. AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF PEOPLE WHO DON'T THINK THAT'S THE REASON WE WENT TO WAR, AND HE'S GOING TO HAVE TO GET BACK IN THERE AND TALK ABOUT THAT AND SAY ARE WE AT WAR FOR YOU THE RIGHT REASONS, BECAUSE THAT WILL COUNTER SOME OF THIS TOUCHY-FEELY 9/11 THING THAT WENT ON AT THE CONVENTION.

Glover: AND TO COUNTER DAVE'S POINT, IT STRIKES ME THAT KERRY WAS -- IT STRUCK ME ALMOST SURPRISED WITH HIS ASSAULT OF THE SWISS BOAT VETERANS FOR TRUTH. AND THAT IS KARL ROVE'S HISTORY. KARL ROVE WILL TELL YOU -- HE'S TOLD ME SEVERAL TIMES -- NEVER ATTACK AN OPPONENT'S WEAKNESS; ALWAYS ATTACK AN OPPONENT'S STRENGTH. IF YOU MAKE YOUR MILITARY SERVICE AND YOUR WAR HERO BACKGROUND THE CENTERPIECE OF YOUR CAMPAIGN, YOU BETTER DARN WELL EXPECT HIM TO COME AFTER YOU ON IT.

Yepsen: AND EVERYTHING WE KNOW ABOUT KERRY, EVERY ONE OF HIS RACES IN MASSACHUSETTS, THIS SAME KIND OF STUFF WAS RAISED. HE SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN AS SURPRISED FOR THAT REASON AS WELL.

Glover: IT TOOK ME ABACK THAT HE WAS SURPRISED BY THAT.

Yepsen: I THINK, DEAN, BOTH PARTIES HAD GOOD CONVENTIONS FOR DIFFERENT REASONS. THE DEMOCRATS TONED DOWN THE RED-MEAT STUFF IN AN EFFORT TO APPEAL TO UNDECIDED VOTERS. THE REPUBLICANS RATCHETED IT UP IN AN EFFORT TO GIN UP THEIR BASE. SO WE'LL SEE IN NOVEMBER WHO HAD THE BETTER STRATEGY.

Burns: I THINK MIKE WAS ABSOLUTELY RIGHT IN HIS ASSESSMENT. WHEN I TALK TO VOTERS IN WESTERN IOWA, JOHN KERRY HAS A TWENTY-YEAR RECORD IN THE UNITED STATES SENATE, BUT WHAT PEOPLE KNOW ABOUT HIM IS THAT HE'S A VETERAN. SO IT WAS VERY WISE TO ATTACK HIM AT THAT STRENGTH AND TO NOT LET HIM DEFINE HIMSELF. I THINK MOST VOTERS WOULD BE AT A LOSS TO SAY WHAT HAS JOHN KERRY DONE IN THE UNITED STATES SENATE.

Borg: DOES THE PRESIDENT'S "YOU'RE SAFER WITH ME" THEME RESONATE WELL IN IOWA? YOU KNOW, MOST IOWANS WOULD SAY, I DON'T THINK A TERRORIST ATTACK IS GOING TO OCCUR HERE.

Burns: RIGHT. I SUPPOSE THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS THAT MAYBE -- I DON'T WANT TO NAME A SPECIFIC SPOT WHERE IT COULD HAPPEN, BUT WITH BIOSCIENCES AND THE AG INDUSTRY, CERTAINLY THE NATION AND THE WORLD'S FOOD SUPPLY IS ALWAYS A SPOT WHERE THEY COULD HIT. AND THEN THERE'S THE ARGUMENT THAT IF YOU HIT THE SOFT UNDERBELLY OF THE COUNTRY THAT THAT COULD REALLY FRIGHTEN PEOPLE. BUT OVERALL, I THINK THAT MESSAGE PLAYS BUT IT'S NOT NEW YORK CITY.

Beck: I DON'T THINK IT HAS TO HAPPEN HERE FOR IT TO BE SOMETHING THAT AMERICANS OR IOWANS CARE ABOUT, BECAUSE WE'RE AMERICANS. AND I THINK ANY IOWAN THAT SAT THERE AND WATCHED THE TOWERS FALL FEEL LIKE THEY WERE CONNECTED TO THAT REGARDLESS OF THE FACT THAT IT WAS MILES AWAY.

Yepsen: IF IT CAN HAPPEN IN OKLAHOMA CITY, IT CAN HAPPEN HERE. THE TERRORISM ISSUE, THE SECURITY ISSUES, IRAQ, THOSE ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS ON VOTERS' MINDS. IT'S NOT THE ECONOMY STUPID; IT'S TERRORISM, STUPID. AND IT'S OF CONCERN IN THIS STATE, AND THAT WAS PART OF BUSH'S MESSAGE: I CAN KEEP YOU SAFE, SAFER THAN KERRY CAN.

Glover: AND A SITTING PRESIDENT NEVER GOES WRONG, IN MY VIEW, BY PLAYING THE COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF CARD. ANYTIME YOU PLAY THE COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF CARD, RALLY AROUND THE FLAG, BOYS, AMERICANS HAVE A HISTORY OF DOING THAT IN TERMS OF INTERNATIONAL CRISIS. SO IF I'M A SITTING PRESIDENT, I'VE GOT SOME KIND OF INTERNATIONAL CRISIS ON MY HANDS, IT NEVER HURTS MY POLITICALLY TO FOCUS ATTENTION ON THAT CRISIS.

Borg: DOUG, I WANT TO NARROW THE QUESTION AND GIVE YOU OPPORTUNITY. IN THE FIFTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTINCT, WESTERN IOWA, WE'RE VERY CONSERVATIVE. STEVE KING IS YOUR CONGRESSIONAL REPRESENTATIVE THERE, AND THAT INDICATES THE CONSERVATIVE NATURE OF THAT DISTRICT. WHAT ISSUES WOULD YOU SAY ARE UPPERMOST ON THE MINDS OF VOTERS THERE?

Burns: I WOULD SAY IT'S AN ISSUE THAT'S BEEN ON THE UPPERMOST MINDS OF VOTERS AND PEOPLE SINCE WE SETTLED THE LAND. IT'S RURAL REVITALIZATION AND WE WOULD LIKE TO HAVE A CANDIDATE COME INTO OUR PART OF THE STATE AND, QUITE FRANKLY, UNDERSTAND US. THERE'S SOME REMARKABLE OPPORTUNITIES WITH BIOSCIENCE. AS I SPENT SOME TIME AT A LABORATORY IN MANNING, IOWA, STRUVE LABS IS DOING GREAT THINGS WITH SPECIALLY BRED PIGS. IT COULD LEAD TO SOME REMARKABLE ADVANCES IN MEDICINE. AND WE'RE EXCITED ABOUT THIS, AND IT WOULD BE NICE TO HAVE A CANDIDATE COME OUT AND BE EXCITED ABOUT THAT INSTEAD OF GIVING THE USUAL SPEECHES ABOUT FARM SUBSIDIES AND HOW THEY SPENT SOME TIME BALING HAY ONE TIME ON THEIR SUMMER VACATION.

Borg: DOES THE ECONOMY PLAY WELL AS AN ISSUE IN IOWA?

Yepsen: I THINK SO BUT I DON'T THINK ISSUES ARE ALL THAT IMPORTANT IN TERMS OF A PRESIDENTIAL RACE. WE ALL WRITE ABOUT THEM. VOTERS' PERCEPTIONS OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES AS PEOPLE ARE MORE IMPORTANT IN DRIVING THEIR DECISIONS. YEAH, THEY WANT TO KNOW WHERE THEY ARE ON THE CHECKLIST, BUT WHAT REALLY I THINK DRIVES THEM IS DO THEY UNDERSTAND ME, DO THEY UNDERSTAND MY PROBLEMS. YEAH, CLINTON BEAT PRESIDENT -- THE FIRST PRESIDENT BUSH IN '92, AND EVERYBODY SAYS IT WAS ON THE ECONOMY. NO, IT WAS BECAUSE BILL CLINTON FROM ARKANSAS -- A POOR KID FROM ARKANSAS UNDERSTOOD PEOPLE'S PROBLEMS AT A GRASS-ROOTS LEVEL BETTER THAN THE FIRST PRESIDENT BUSH DID.

Yepsen: AND, DEAN, THE MORE I'M AROUND POLITICS, THE MORE I BECOME CONVINCED THAT IT'S ALL ABOUT RUNNING FOR CLASS PRESIDENT. [ LAUGHTER ] IT'S ALL ABOUT WHO YOU LIKE AND WHO YOU DON'T LIKE. AND AT THE END OF THE DAY, EVERY ELECTION, FROM SCHOOL BOARD, TO MAYOR, TO GOVERNOR, TO PRESIDENT, BOILS DOWN TO A TEST OF WHO PEOPLE FEEL AN ATTACHMENT TO, WHO PEOPLE CAN FEEL A BOND WITH. AT THE END OF THE DAY, THE PERSON THEY FEEL A BOND WITH WILL BE THAT CANDIDATE.

Yepsen: AND I DO THINK THAT'S A PROBLEM FOR KERRY IN IOWA.

Glover: HE DOES NOT HAVE THAT KIND OF --

Yepsen: HE CULTURALLY JUST DOES NOT CONNECT WITH RURAL IOWANS AS WELL AS THE GUY FROM TEXAS IN THE BLUE JEANS OUT CLEARING BRUSH EVERY OTHER WEEK.

Borg: MIKE, IT WAS ALLUDED TO HERE EARLIER ABOUT ABSENTEE VOTERS AND VOTER TURNOUT.

Glover: MM-HMM.

Borg: I THINK YOU HAVE WRITTEN A PIECE, I HEARD THIS PAST WEEK, THAT INVOLVED SOME RESEARCH ON HOW MANY ABSENTEE BALLOTS ARE ALREADY IN THE BANK.

Glover: RIGHT. IF YOU LOOK AT -- IF YOU PICK 20 BATTLEGROUND STATES WHERE THE ELECTION PROBABLY WILL BE DECIDED, ASSUMING THERE ARE THAT MANY, 13 OF THEM HAVE SOME KIND OF AN EARLY VOTING OR UNRESTRICTED ABSENTEE VOTING WHERE YOU CAN GO OUT AND SIGN UP VOTERS IN ADVANCE OF ELECTION DAY. IN IOWA, THAT'S WELL UNDERWAY. THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS OF ABSENTEE BALLOT REQUESTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN TURNED IN. OVERWHELMINGLY THOSE ABSENTEE BALLOT REQUESTS ARE TRENDING DEMOCRAT. I CHECKED, FOR EXAMPLE, IN POLK COUNTY, WHICH IS DES MOINES, THEY HAVE 17,000 ABSENTEE BALLOT REQUESTS: 13,000 OF THEM ARE DEMOCRATIC BALLOT REQUESTS; 2,900 OF THEM ARE NO PARTY BALLOT REQUESTS TURNED IN BY DEMOCRATIC-LEANING GROUPS, WHICH MEANS ABOUT 16- OF THE 17,000 ARE DEMOCRATIC VOTES. IN STATES WHERE THE ELECTION IS LIKELY TO BE SETTLED BY JUST A HANDFUL OF VOTES, THAT KIND OF ORGANIZATIONAL THING CAN MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BECAUSE THAT CAN TURN OUT WHAT WE CALL SPORADIC VOTERS, VOTERS WHO, LEFT TO THEIR OWN DEVICES, LIKELY WON'T TURN OUT BUT WHO CAN BE HARASSED INTO GOING TO VOTE.

Yepsen: YEAH, REPUBLICANS ARE GETTING THEIR CLOCK CLEANED ON THIS ABSENTEE BALLOT THING, BUT THEY'RE FOLLOWING A DIFFERENT STRATEGY, AND THAT IS THEY BELIEVE THAT THEY NEED TO GIN UP THEIR ELECTION-DAY TURNOUT. IT'S AN INTERESTING FACT, DEAN, ON ELECTION DAY, IN 2000, GEORGE BUSH WON THE VOTE THAT WAS CAST AT THE POLLS. NOW, GORE CARRIED THE STATE ON THE STRENGTH OF THESE ABSENTEE BALLOTS, SO DEMOCRATS FOLLOWED THE STRATEGY OF GETTING OUR WEAK VOTERS OUT. REPUBLICANS ARE TRYING TO, AGAIN, GIN UP THEIR BASE, GET REPUBLICANS OUT TO VOTE ON ELECTION DAY. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE WHO HAS THE BETTER STRATEGY.

Glover: AND AGAIN, TO MAKE THE POINT THAT -- THE STRATEGIES MAKE SOME SENSE, BOTH OF THEM DO. BUT THE ELECTION IS SO CLOSE THAT EVERY LITTLE PIECE LIKE THAT IS GOING TO BE IMPORTANT.

Yepsen: AND I THINK YOU HAVE TO -- IN A CLOSE ELECTION, I THINK YOU ALSO HAVE TO MENTION RALPH NADER. HE'S ON THE BALLOT IN THIS STATE, ONE OF THE FEW STATES THAT HE IS. HE WILL NOT GET THE VOTE HE GOT LAST TIME, BUT IF HE GETS HALF OF IT, I MEAN HE'S STILL A FACTOR. THAT HAPPENS IN TAKING VOTES AWAY FROM KERRY, AND A LOT OF LIBERALS ARE NOT HAPPY WITH KERRY FOR HIS MUSHINESS ON IRAQ. AT THE SAME TIME, BUSH DOES NOT HAVE A PAT BUCHANAN PULLING CONSERVATIVE VOTES AWAY FROM HIS BASE.

Borg: AND WHAT THAT ALSO DOES, ABSENTEE BALLOTS IN THE BANK, THAT ALSO INSULATES THOSE VOTES AGAINST ANYTHING THAT MIGHT HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND ELECTION DAY.

Glover: AND IT CUTS DOWN ON YOUR WORKLOAD ON ELECTION DAY. IF YOU'VE GOT, LET'S SAY, 50,000 VOTES IN POLK COUNTY ALREADY CAST BY THE TIME ELECTION DAY HAPPENS, THAT CUTS DOWN THE NUMBER OF VOTERS YOU HAVE TO CONTACT AND TURN OUT ON ELECTION DAY.

Borg: I MENTIONED IN OUR OPEN THAT TOM VILSACK WAS OFF WORKING FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN NEW YORK CITY DURING THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION. HE ALSO HAD -- WELL, LET'S DEAL WITH THAT. HE HAS A VERY PROMINENT ROLE NATIONALLY IN THIS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. DO YOU WANT TO AT ALL COMMENT ON THAT, MIKE?

Glover: I THINK THAT IF JOHN KERRY PULLS THIS OFF AND WINS THE WHITE HOUSE, TOM VILSACK WON'T FINISH HIS SECOND TERM IN OFFICE AND HE'LL END UP WITH A JOB IN WASHINGTON. HE BUILT A RELATIONSHIP WITH KERRY EARLY ON. HE DIDN'T ENDORSE HIM BEFORE THE CAUCUSES, ALTHOUGH HIS WIFE DID. HE ENDORSED HIM VERY QUICKLY AFTERWARDS, AND HE'S BUILT SOME KIND OF A RELATIONSHIP WITH KERRY. BOTH OF THEM ARE SOMETHING OF POLICY WONKS. BOTH OF THEM ARE GOOD ON THE RESERVE SIDE. THEY APPEAR TO HAVE DEVELOPED A RELATIONSHIP. I THINK IF KERRY PULLS THIS OFF, THERE WILL BE A SPOT FOR VILSACK SOMEWHERE IN WASHINGTON.

Borg: MY REASON FOR BRINGING THAT UP IS THAT HE ALSO HAS BEEN WORKING ON A SPECIAL SESSION COMPROMISE WHICH, AS I SAID, HE AND REPUBLICAN LEGISLATIVE LEADERS, SOME OF THEM AT LEAST, ARE NOW NURSING THAT FRAGILE COMPROMISE INTO A SPECIAL SESSION, JENEANE.

Beck: YES.

Borg: WHAT IS THE DEAL?

Beck: WELL, THE DEAL IS THEY'LL COME BACK TUESDAY; THEY'LL PUT $100 MILLION INTO WHAT WAS THE IOWA VALUES FUND, WHICH IS THAT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM THAT THEY HAD APPROVED TO ATTRACT NEW BUSINESSES TO IOWA. IT'S A GRANT AND LOAN PROGRAM, ESSENTIALLY. AND THEY HAD ALREADY, AS EVERYONE KNOWS, MADE GRANTS AND LOANS WHEN THE COURT TOSSED IT OUT. SO THEY'RE GOING TO COME BACK IN, AND THEY'RE GOING TO PUT MONEY IN, BUT THEY'RE NOT GOING TO REESTABLISH THE VALUES FUND ITSELF, WHICH MEANS THE BOARDS AND THE GROUPS THAT HAND OUT THE MONEY. THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL JANUARY. WHAT THEY WILL DO IS A TAX CUT FOR BUSINESSES AND THEY WILL ALSO REWRITE, A BIT, IOWA'S WORKER COMPENSATION LAWS TO TRY TO TRIM THE BALANCE OR GIVE THE EMPLOYERS A LITTLE BIT BETTER BALANCE WITH THEIR WORKERS ON WORKERS COMPENSATION.

Borg: I WANT TO KEY IN ON TWO WORDS YOU SAID, WHAT THEY WILL DO. YOU'RE SAYING IT'S A DONE DEAL.

Beck: WELL, I THINK THAT THE GOVERNOR CALLED THEM BACK KNOWING HE HAD TO HAVE A DEAL, BECAUSE IF THEY THUMB THEIR NOSE AT HIM -- HE'S DONE THAT ONCE BEFORE WHERE HE CALLED THEM BACK, HE DIDN'T HAVE A DEAL, AND IT LOOKED BAD. SO I THINK THERE IS A DONE DEAL BETWEEN REPUBLIC LEGISLATIVE LEADS AND THE GOVERNOR AND NOT WITH LEGISLATIVE DEMOCRATS.

Yepsen: YOU KNOW, THERE IS A SPECIAL SESSION. IT IS A GOOD COMPROMISE. I THINK IT WILL ADVANCE IOWA'S ECONOMY. IT'S NOT A SILVER BULLET. IT DOESN'T SOLVE EVERYTHING. BUT IT'S INTERESTING, IT DID NOT COME TOGETHER UNTIL AFTER TOM VILSACK WAS NOT THE DEMOCRATIC VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE. HIS ROLE ON THE NATIONAL STAGE HAS HINDERED POLITICS AT THE STATEHOUSE FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST, REPUBLICANS WERE PLAYING GAMES WITH HIM: SCUFF HIM UP; MAKE HIM LOOK BAD; DON'T DO THINGS THAT MAKE TOM VILSACK LOOK GOOD. AND SECONDLY, TOM VILSACK HAD TO PLAY TO THE PARTY CONSTITUENCY GROUPS. IF YOU'RE RUNNING FOR VICE PRESIDENT, YOU CAN'T ALIENATE THE UNIONS, YOU CAN'T ALIENATE THE TRIAL LAWYERS THAT WRITE ALL THE CHECKS. NOW HE'S NOT GOING TO BE THE VICE PRESIDENT. HE COULD COME BACK TO IOWA AND CUT THE DEAL THAT THE TRIAL LAWYERS DON'T LIKE AND SOME OF THE PUBLIC EMPLOYEE UNIONS DON'T CARE FOR. AND HE'S GOT PEOPLE ON THE DEMOCRATIC LEFT UPSET WITH HIM, BUT HE HAD THE FLEXIBILITY THEN TO COME BACK AND CUT A GOOD DEAL FOR IOWA.

Glover: WHAT HE'S GOT IS HE'S GOT THE LEFT WING OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY UPSET WITH HIM. HE'S GOT THE RIGHT WING OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY UPSET WITH THEIR LEADERS, WHO ARE NOT AT ALL HAPPY THAT A DEAL WAS CUT. AND LIKE ANY COMPROMISE THAT IS WORTHY OF THE NAME, IT'S GOT BOTH SIDES A LITTLE UPSET BECAUSE NOBODY GETS EVERYTHING THEY WANT, EVERYBODY GETS A LITTLE SOMETHING OF WHAT THEY WANT.

Yepsen: WELL, THE DEMOCRATS THOUGHT THEY COULD USE THIS AS AN ISSUE AND TAKEN THE LEGISLATURE BACK.

Glover: SURE. AND THE LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS, MOST PEOPLE GIVE THE DEMOCRATS A REASONABLE SHOT OF GETTING CONTROL OF THE STATE SENATE. THEY WERE PREPARED TO ARGUE THAT WE HAVE A DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR WHO'S WON ELECTION TWICE, HE'S GOT AN AGENDA OUT THERE, AND ALL WE'VE GOT AT THE HILL ARE OBSTRUCTIONIST REPUBLICANS STANDING IN THE WAY, PREVENTING HIM FROM GETTING IT DONE. AND THEN SIXTY DAYS BEFORE AN ELECTION, THAT DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR CUTS A DEAL WITH THEM TO ALLOW THEM TO CROWD AROUND BEHIND HIM IN A BILL SIGNING CEREMONY, HAVE THEIR PICTURE TAKEN, AND HAVE IT PUT IN A CAMPAIGN BROCHURE: REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS WORKING TOGETHER TO SOLVE THE STATE'S PROBLEMS.

Beck: AND I DO THINK THAT'S PART OF THE REASON THIS COMPROMISE TOOK SO LONG. YOU KNOW, AS I TALKED ABOUT, THE COURT THREW THIS OUT EARLY IN THE SUMMER. THEY'VE HAD A LONG TIME TO WORK ON THIS BUT, ONE, HIS NATIONAL PROFILE AND HIM BEING OUT OF THE STATE SO OFTEN AND, TWO, I THINK HE WAS GETTING PRESSURE FROM HIS PARTY NOT TO REACH A COMPROMISE, TO LET THEM TAKE THIS INTO THE ELECTION. AND ALSO, I THINK FOR A WHILE HE THOUGHT HE MIGHT BE ABLE TO SOLVE IT ADMINISTRATIVELY. AND WHEN IT BECAME CLEAR TO HIM THEY'D SUE HIM AGAIN, HE SAID, OOO, MAYBE I BETTER NOT DO THAT.

Borg: GO AHEAD.

Burns: AT THE END OF THE DAY, THOUGH, THE LION'S SHARE OF THIS VALUES FUND IS IN THE LURCH. AND FOR THOSE OF US IN RURAL AREAS THAT ARE REALLY ADVOCATING AND PRESSING FOR DEVELOPMENT, WHAT HAPPENS? MAYBE BOTH OF THESE PARTIES LOSE IN THE END BECAUSE WE'RE SUPPOSED TO WAIT TILL JANUARY TO GO OUT AND OFFER THESE INCENTIVES TO PEOPLE, BECAUSE WE CAN'T BE CERTAIN THAT THEY'RE THERE RIGHT NOW. AND TO HAVE 75 PERCENT OF THE MONEY OR MORE IN THIS LURCH POLITICALLY IS BAD FOR BOTH PARTIES, AND IT'S BAD FOR THE STATE.

Beck: JANUARY IS OPTIMISTIC BECAUSE THEY'LL TAKE SEVERAL MONTHS ONCE THEY COME BACK INTO SESSION TO EVEN SOLVE IT, LIKE YOU'RE SAYING.

Glover: THAT COMPLAINT YOU HEAR FROM A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO WERE PUTTING TOGETHER THE IOWA VALUES FUND IS THAT THIS IS A SHORT-TERM, LET'S-COVER-OUR-SKIRTS TYPE OF A DEAL. AND WHAT THE VALUES FUND IS, THEY ARGUE, IS A LONG-TERM ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, BUT IT'S NOT BEEN REPLACED WITH ONE.

Yepsen: THEY ARE GOING TO KEEP THE INITIAL $100-MILLION COMMITMENT, BUT THEY'RE GOING TO COME BACK IN JANUARY AND SEE WHETHER IT HAS WORKED. I MEAN THERE'S A LOT OF REPUBLICANS WHO DON'T LIKE THE IDEA OF GOVERNMENT PICKING WINNERS AND LOSERS. THERE ARE A LOT OF DEMOCRATS WHO DO NOT LIKE THE IDEA OF WHAT THEY CALL CORPORATE WELFARE. THEY HAVE A LEGITIMATE POINT. THEY CAN COME BACK IN JANUARY AND SEE HAS THIS WORKED. IF IT HAS, I EXPECT IT WILL PASS.

Borg: ARE THE LEGISLATIVE DEMOCRATS THE LIKELY LOSERS IF THIS COMPROMISE PASSES?

Glover: YEAH, IT HURTS THEM POLITICALLY. IT HURTS THEM POLITICALLY BECAUSE IT TAKES AWAY ONE OF THEIR BASE ISSUES, THE ISSUE OF ALL REPUBLICANS ARE BEING OBSTRUCTIONISTS, PREVENTING US FROM MOVING THIS STATE FORWARD. REPUBLICANS CAN NOW SAY WE PUT OUR OWN PARTISAN INTERESTS ASIDE, CUT A DEAL WITH THE GOVERNOR, AND MOVED THE STATE FORWARD. SO, YEAH, IT'S AN ARGUMENT FOR REPUBLICANS. IT'S A BLOW FOR DEMOCRATS. AND ALSO, ONE OF THE PIECES OF THIS PUZZLE IS THE WORKER COMPENSATION THING, WHICH INFURIATES THE LABOR UNIONS. CUTTING INTO WORKER COMPENSATION BENEFITS INFURIATES LABOR UNIONS, ONE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY'S BIG BASES. AND NOW YOU'VE GOT A DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR SUPPORTING IT, AND THAT CUTS INTO THE ENERGY FROM A GROUP THEY BADLY NEED IN NOVEMBER.

Borg: DOUG, I'VE MENTIONED AGAIN AND AGAIN THAT YOU'RE OVER IN THE CARROLL, IOWA, AREA, WESTERN IOWA DISTRICT. I WANT TO BRIEFLY, IN THE TIME THAT WE HAVE REMAINING, LOOK AT SOME OF THE DISTRICTS AND CAMPAIGNS. KING AND SCHULTE ARE THE CANDIDATES THERE. HOW DO YOU REGARD THAT RACE?

Burns: IT'S KING'S RACE. IT BASICALLY WOULD TAKE A MASSIVE OUTBREAK OF POLITICAL SCHIZOPHRENIA FOR IOWANS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE TO REPLACE KING, AN EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE MEMBER OF CONGRESS, WITH JOYCE SCHULTE, A WELL-MEANING WOMAN, A BRIGHT WOMAN, BUT A WOMAN WHO, IN CRESTON AT HER PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUS, INITIALLY SUPPORTED DENNIS KUCINICH. SHE'S WRITTEN A FEMINIST PLAY. SHE'S PRO-CHOICE ON ABORTION, EVEN IN CASES OF PARTIAL-BIRTH ABORTION. IT WOULD BE A RADICAL DEPARTURE FOR IOWANS IN OUR PART OF THE STATE TO REPLACE KING.

Borg: SO SHE HAS AN UPHILL BATTLE, YOU'RE SAYING. [ LAUGHTER ]

Glover: DEAN, THERE ARE FIVE CONGRESSIONAL RACES IN IOWA THIS YEAR AND ONE SENATE RACE. OF THOSE SIX CAMPAIGNS, IT STRIKES ME THAT THERE'S ONLY ONE THAT'S EVEN VAGUELY COMPETITIVE. AND THAT'S IN CENTRAL IOWA'S THIRD DISTRICT, LEONARD BOSWELL, INCUMBENT DEMOCRAT, RUNNING AGAINST STAN THOMPSON, A DES MOINES LAWYER WHO RAN AGAINST HIM LAST TIME. AND THAT IS EVEN A TOUGH CALL. THOMPSON LOST A 53-47 RACE LAST TIME. IN A PRESIDENTIAL YEAR, TURNOUT WILL BE UP. DEMOCRATIC-LEANING TURNOUT WILL GO UP. IT'S DIFFICULT FOR ME TO SEE HOW THOMPSON BUILDS ON THOSE NUMBERS, BUT AT LEAST THAT RACE IS IN THE BALL PARK.

Beck: AND HE GOT MORE ATTENTION LAST TIME BECAUSE IT WAS THE FIRST RACE AFTER REDISTRICTING, AND SO BOSWELL WAS CONSIDERED MORE VULNERABLE. SO THOMPSON GOT A LITTLE MORE ATTENTION THAN HE'S GOING TO GET THIS TIME AROUND.

Borg: WOULD YOU NOT CALL THE JOHNSON-LATHAM RACE COMPETITIVE?

Glover: NOT AT THIS POINT.

Yepsen: I WOULDN'T. I MEAN PAUL JOHNSON CERTAINLY IS A VERY CREDIBLE CANDIDATE, A LOT OF POTENTIAL, BUT I DON'T THINK HE'S GOT THE MONEY HE NEEDS TO OUST A SITTING INCUMBENT.

Beck: OR THE MISSING ISSUE IS THE ATTENTION. I MEAN HERE'S A GUY WITH CREDENTIALS THAT EVEN FARMERS LIKE, AND IN THAT DISTRICT THAT'S IMPORTANT. BUT HE'S NOT GOING TO GET THE ATTENTION EITHER BECAUSE EVERYBODY IS FOCUSED ON THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE.

Yepsen: AND I THINK THE SAME THING IS TRUE IN JIM LEACH'S DISTRICT AND IN JIM NUSSLE'S DISTRICT. I MEAN YOU'VE GOT CREDIBLE CANDIDATES BUT THEY DON'T HAVE THE MONEY. THE TIME FOR THE CHANGE IN IOWA'S CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT WAS AFTER REDISTRICTING. I THINK THE POLITICAL COMMUNITY IS WAITING TO SEE ABOUT RETIREMENTS. I MEAN THERE'S ALL KINDS OF TALK ABOUT NUSSLE RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR, THAT LEACH WILL RETIRE, LEONARD IS GETTING OLD. AND THAT'S WHERE THE CREDIBLE CANDIDATES AND THE SERIOUS MONEY ARE DOING; THEY'RE WAITING FOR ANOTHER DAY.

Glover: AND A LOT OF WHAT YOU'RE SEEING IN THESE CONGRESSIONAL RACES IS POSITIONING FOR JUST EXACTLY WHEN THAT HAPPENS. THE CANDIDATE GOING OUT THERE, RUNNING AROUND A DISTRICT, SPENDING A CAMPAIGN, RUNNING THE IMPOSSIBLE FIGHT TO POSITION THEMSELVES FOR WHEN THAT INCUMBENT RETIRES.

Borg: TALKING ABOUT NONCOMPETITIVE RACES, WOULD YOU ALSO AGREE THAT SENATOR GRASSLEY IS IN A NONCOMPETITIVE AND -- IF HE COASTS, IS HE GOING TO HELP BUSH?

Yepsen: ART SMALL HAS ABOUT THE SAME CHANCE THAT JOYCE SCHULTE HAS, WHICH IS ZERO. AND IT'S KIND OF UNFORTUNATE THAT DEMOCRATS DID NOT FIELD A MORE CREDIBLE CANDIDATE. BUT THE ANSWER TO THAT IS NOBODY WANTS TO GO ON A SUICIDE MISSION AND JEOPARDIZE THEIR CHANCES LATER FOR A POLITICAL CAREER, SALLY PEDERSON OR CHET CULVER, FOR EXAMPLE. THE RESULT OF WHICH IS GRASSLEY CAN RAISE A TON OF MONEY AND DEPLOY IT OUT THERE IN GET-OUT-THE-VOTE DRIVES AND IN HELPING LEGISLATIVE CANDIDATES.

Glover: AND ONE OF THE KEY QUESTIONS IS WHAT'S HE GOING TO DO WITH THAT OVER THE NEXT SIXTY DAYS.

Yepsen: A LOT OF REPUBLICANS GRUMBLE THAT HE DOESN'T DO ENOUGH LOCALLY. HE GETS DEFENSIVE ABOUT THAT BECAUSE HE THINKS DOES.

Glover: AND HE'S A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF THAT POLITICAL STATEMENT "WE'RE ALL IN THIS ALONE, SON."

Borg: WE HAVE TO LEAVE IT THERE. THANKS FOR YOUR INSIGHTS. ON OUR NEXT EDITION OF "IOWA PRESS," WE CONTINUE OUR LOOK INTO THE 2004 CAMPAIGNS WITH A LOOK AT THE CAMPAIGN FOR CONGRESS IN WESTERN IOWA'S FIFTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT. THE INCUMBENT THERE, AS WE'VE JUST SAID, STEVE KING OF KIRON. HIS DEMOCRATIC OPPONENT IS JOYCE SCHULTE OF CRESTON. YOU'LL SEE THAT PROGRAM NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT AT 7:30, SUNDAY AT NOON. I HOPE YOU'LL WATCH. I'M DEAN BORG. THANKS FOR JOINING US TODAY.

CAPTIONS BY: MIDWEST CAPTIONING DES MOINES, IOWA.

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