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Monday, April 25, 2011

In the above chart I have marked a horizontal line in the volume area. Marked some key areas where volume has gone down below that line .We see that when the trend is down with the volume going below that line, we see some good upmoves. 2 times we saw the trend up with the volume going below that line , and we saw huge down moves.

Today the volume has fallen below that line. trend has been down , although it has been a very slight downward movement. Looks like we are going UP very soon . Cant tell if it may happen tomorrow itself.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

We will get bullish only if NIFTY breaks only if 78.6% retracement level is broken convincingly.

Also take note of that red Support and resistance line.

The present count which I am following :

(ii) was 61.8% retracement . (iv) was 38.2% retracement. Nifty has found it hard to breakthrough that red trend line. Managing to close just below it. At present Nifty is at 61.8% of (i) . 78.8% of (i) comes at 5987 . And 100% of (i) comes at 6067.
I am going freshly BULLISH only after these levels are surpassed convincingly.

The weekly charts are getting Overbought as well.

See what happened when Nifty had hit the trend line and also was at Overbought condition.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Doing the larger B wave . [a] , [b] completed. Now doing [c] in 5 waves. We are in the 4th of that .Most probable target is 5640-5665. (ii) retraced 61.8% . 38.2% retracement for this (iv) wave was at 5709 .But most likely this will get breached. The parralel channel has to be formed and at 5650 area, this will be perfect .5646 is also the 50% retracement of the previous uptrend.

Chart below.

Intersection of resistance and support lines at the 5650 area also gives us more confidence that the downtrend will end at that point. But whats gonna be the targets for the next uptrend. Most likely targets are the red and blue DASHED trend lines. 6020 looks like a good target. It may also go upto 6088.

Friday, April 15, 2011

We take a look at the 4 hour chart . We knew the blue trend line was going to be massive resistance and it has turned out exactly like that . To break it Nifty needs to consolidate and it has been doing exactly that .

The Nifty is moving up inside those converging light green trend lines . We already have seen before the blue descending trend line has provided massive resistance which worked the last trading day too. The red one has been the most accurate in providing resistance and support . Today we saw that Nifty went down to find support at the intersection of the pink and the light blue lines . We find the Nifty consolidating in a triangle .
Most probably the light blue trend line will be the lower support line of this triangle and the upper boundary could be both the blue line or the dashed line . But the APEX of this triangle is very near and we will soon see a break out .

This time NIFTY could be aiming for that RED DASHED trend line . We take a look at the weekly chart .

The light green line is provided good support

Lastly the short term chart 1 min chart showing the NIFTY has been channeling for the last 3 hours . The light green line also shows that the Nifty may be headed up from here for a target above 5850.

What i suspect is that NIFTY is going to do 2-3 trading days of consolidation before EXPLODING UP towards that RED DASHED line .

The case for Infosys looks hopeless . The long term trend line support was broken earlier this week .
And today with a big volume day , down it went .Closing at 2990 , it may again find support at 2990 at the blue trend line .

The technicals are oversold in the short term charts . So we may see a bounce back next trading day to the previous support lines shown in the next chart . May be 50 -60 odd points .

We see that 2 was a simple ABC zig-zag. Expect this 4th wave to be a complex corrective wave.

Looking at the short term chart below:

The very important sky blue trend line support was broken today . But I dont think its going down fast just now. It has got a cluster of supports shown by the dashed green lines the last of which comes at around 315. If that breaks , the the move down is going to be fast . The next important trend line support is shown by the orange line.

Oil found resistance at the intersection of the Green and blue lines and reversed this week. the support was obviously the RED line and since the last 3 days its been going higher. It will again try to penetrate thegreen and majorly the blue line. I think it will this time as the dollar keeps going low. The pink line will serve as the next resistance at 49.4 . If it penetrates that , then i think this will have a free run targeting the orange line with targets 60 and above.

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

So which was the standout trend line ....was it the blue or pink line?..Well both of them stood out in stopping the nifty.

We see the pink trend line was hit with a spike of the Nifty just once . And then the blue trend line came into play . the UPs of the markets all day had been slamming into the blue trend line but wasn't able to break it. The situation is very similar to the last time we hit the blue trend line . The Nifty slided along the line for a few hours and then everything fell apart. So will this be the end of the " X" wave ....or is it the 3rd wave of another bullish trend . Thats still not clear. With oil going up , Japan and ME tensions , I am not very hopeful of another rally towards the highs of 6000s. But i am not sure. looking for the markets to come to 5700 area atleast.

The technicals are overbought in daily and hourly charts and are trending downwards. The Wolfe Wave shows minimum target 5830 area.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

We are so close to crucial trend lines. In the daily chart below we also see the death cross turning to golden cross ( atleast for now). We should try to touch that red trend line tomorrow. Bears would like to see black candle there.

Daily technicals are overbought. We also see divergence in the 90 min chart Markets will try o touch crucial trend lines . We are almost in a similar position when the markets reversed after touching that blue line.

5915 is the 73.6% retracemnt from 6180 to 5177. 5966 is the 78.6% retracement level.

I get the feeling markets wont be up too high from here by looking at the reliance chart . If the MArket has to go higher reliance has to support it . Reliance is finding it hard to break the trend line resistances. Also showing divergences in the 90 min charts.

The daily chart tells it all. One can name it X of WXY or B of ABC . The 61.8% retracement at point 5895.

The upper channel trend line and also the blue trend line joining the previous 2 tops , meet at the same point.
.And what more , we can also see that fibo fan 23.6% line sliding along. Can the bulls clear that .You decide.

So how are we going to get there. The below chart has some ideas .

I am not exactly sure how the above scenario will play out. It may be a simple ABC or it may be WXY. Lets see 15 min chart below of this little correction .All you have to do is trade the channels.

All I can say is at least once we should come down to touch the lower blue(or orange may be ) trend line around 5750 area.

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Words of WISDOM

"The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight."

---Jesse Livermore

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