Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003
THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM A RECON. IT APPEARS THAT
EITHER THE CENTER BRIEFLY MOVED TO THE NORTHWEST FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED OR REFORMED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. CLAUDETTE NOW
CONSISTS OF A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST IN CONVECTIVE BANDS. IN
FACT...THE RECON HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND A TRUE CENTER AND THE
POSITION USED HERE IS BASED ON SATELLITE AND A FEW WIND SHIFTS
REPORTED BY THE RECON.
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 45 KNOTS AND THAT IS
PROBABLY OVERESTIMATED. BECAUSE THE SUDDEN AND UNEXPECTED WEAKENING
OF CLAUDETTE...AND THE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE
LANDFALL IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
YUCATAN HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
ONCE CLAUDETTE MOVES AWAY FROM YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT
HAS A CHANGE TO RE-STRENGTHEN. IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE GLOBAL
MODELS WHICH INSIST ON FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WIND ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE ALL THE UPS AND DOWN IN THE STRUCTURE OF
CLAUDETTE...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
WELL-ORGANIZED.
CLAUDETTE APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14
KNOTS. THIS MOTION PROBABLY INCLUDES THE ALLEDGED REFORMATION. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND MISS
THE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWING BY THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ONCE IT
REACHES THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS
FORECAST IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS..NOGAPS AND
UK GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 20.0N 85.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 21.5N 87.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 23.0N 89.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 24.5N 91.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 25.5N 93.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 26.0N 94.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 26.0N 96.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 26.0N 98.4W 30 KT...INLAND
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