long reads

• From 1963 to 1983, more than one million babies were born each year in Thailand in a “population tsunami.’

• The highest was in 1969, with 1.2 million births. But after 1983 the number of births started to decline.

• In a few years we will begin to see the consequences of an ageing society.

• At present Thai women have a fertility rate of 1.5, compared to five children 50 years ago.

• Thai women today want to be free and independent, and aren’t as keen to get married.

• The birth rate is still higher in rural areas than in Bangkok, but now the difference is less.

• Fifty years ago the average life expectancy in Thailand was about 55 years. Now it is 72 years for men and 78 years for women.

• In 2040 the Thai work force will shrink to 35-36 million people.

With birth rates in decline and an increase in the number of older people, Thailand faces a host of new challenges – a smaller workforce and a fall in overall population that wasn’t foreseen as recently as 15 years ago

By Maxmilian Wechsler

THAILAND faces huge challenges in the years ahead as the country’s overall population growth slows, causing the workforce to shrink dramatically due to a falling birth rate and an ageing population. Even with immigration, the number of people living here will soon hit a plateau and then begin to drop.

Such a prospect flies in the face of traditional population-watchers, who only a few years ago were tasked with the problem of a population boom.

To find out what’s behind this new and rather surprising situation, and to learn more of the consequences of a population slowdown, The BigChilli talked to three demographics experts with Mahidol University’s Institute for Population and Social Research (IPSR).

Associate Professor Rossarin Gray, who has been with the IPSR for over 15 years, is its current director. She explained when the institute was established some years ago, its main purpose was to study the country’s (at the time) rapidly increasing population and advise the government on family planning and other measures to deal with the demands an expanding population puts on society.

“But times have changed because of declining birth rates and longer life expectancies,” said Dr Rossarin. “The ageing of society has become the big issue, and not only in Thailand. It’s also a major focus of the governments of Japan, Singapore, Australia and Sweden to name a few.”

Professor Pramote Prasatkul, one of Dr Rossarin’s colleagues at the IPSR, added: “United Nations statistics estimate the population of Thailand at more than 68 million in 2016, but this includes about three million migrant workers from neighbouring countries, about 75 percent of whom are from Myanmar, 15 percent from Cambodia and the rest mostly from Laos.

“The institute has a ‘population meter’ that breaks down the number of residents in our national registration system. It tells us how many Thai citizens – those born here or naturalized – and how many expats there are in Thailand,” said the professor. “The IPSR has developed detailed records that reveal population trends over the years and allow us to make projections on demographics and social directions.

“From 1963 to 1983 there were more than one million babies born each year in Thailand. I refer to this as the ‘population tsunami.’”

“The highest number was in 1969, when there were 1.2 million births. But after 1983 the number of births started to decline. Last year there were about 730,000 births in Thailand.

“People born in the period from 1963-1983 are now 32-52 years old and will, of course, only get older. So in just a few years we will begin to see the consequences of an ageing society.

“The main indicator of an ageing society is fertility rate – basically the average number of children a woman gives birth to throughout her child-bearing years. At present Thai women have a fertility rate of 1.5. Fifty years ago the average Thai woman had five children.

“The ‘replacement fertility rate’ is two children per woman, so we are well below that. Fertility rates in some Asian countries are even lower, for example 1.2 in Japan and Singapore, and 1.1 in Taiwan and Korea. There are a number of economic and social factors contributing to the trend, such as changing lifestyles, higher divorce rates, and more women in the workforce. Some women just prefer to remain single, and this is more pronounced among women with higher status.

“Thai women today are more likely to work outside the home and be better educated than their counterparts of 50 or 100 years ago. They want to be free and independent, and aren’t as keen to get married. In the past this attitude was mostly confined to the big cities, but now it is the same all over Thailand. The birth rate is still higher in rural areas than in Bangkok, but now the difference is less. Former Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew said that he could succeed in almost everything but he couldn’t make Singaporean women have more babies. It is the same in every developed country. When you get richer, you have fewer children.

“Excluding the three million migrants, Thailand’s population is over 65 million. At present there are about 730,000 births and 450,000 deaths per year, so that’s a net gain of about 280,000 per year. That will shrink as the birth rate continues to fall. At the same time, the death rate, which is now about seven per one thousand people, will increase. In no more than 15 years from now the death rate will surpass the birth rate.

“According to the projections made by the National Economic and Social Development Board, over the next 15 years the population of Thailand will increase to about 66 million and then fall to about 64 million in 2040,” said Prof Pramote.

“The population will decline, but not by all that much in any given year. We calculate that in 25 years we will still have around 64 million people. To put things in perspective, in 1910, the last year in the reign of King Rama V, the population of the country was only eight million.

“The reason the population decrease is projected to be very gradual is simply that Thai people are living longer. Fifty years ago the average life expectancy was about 55 years; now it is about 75 years – actually 72 years for men and 78 years for women. This is a big change.

“But while the population will stay roughly the same, the labor force will start dropping significantly at some point. At present there are around 42 million Thais in the work force. That figure includes citizens from the ages of 15 to 60 and does not include migrant workers. In 2040 the Thai work force will shrink to 35-36 million people,” said Prof Pramote.

So how will Thailand meet its labor needs in the future? The obvious answer is to allow more foreign workers into the country. “This is what’s happening in Japan, with a population of 127 million and falling, and also Singapore. They are importing labor from other countries. Thailand can also make use of more foreign workers if they are needed.

“If you ask me whether it is good or bad if Thailand’s labor force declines, I would say the main consideration is the quality and skill level of the workers. If you have fewer people in the labor force but they are more productive, this is fine in my opinion. A labor force of 35-38 million people should be sufficient, provided we improve on technology and automation, and our government and institutions effectively develop human resources.”

The professor added that extending the mandatory retirement age is another part of the solution. He noted that almost all Thai government employees must retire at age 60, as do many workers in the private sector. Meanwhile, judges may work until age 70 and the retirement age for academics is 65.

About IPSR

“The Institute for Population and Social Research (IPSR) was established in 1971. Our faculty is housed in this six-storey building opened five years ago,” said IPSR Director Dr Rossarin Gray, as she gave a tour of the impressive modern edifice. “The facilities include a library, exercise room, recreation area, small coffee shop and canteen. The IPSR employs 100 people, including staff at our sites in Kanchanaburi province. We have 32 lecturers in our faculty as well as supporting staff and full-time employees. Then we have part-time workers who are hired only when we have a project. We employ five foreigners, from Austria, Brazil, Germany, Italy and the US. They teach and do research. There are about 30 students in the faculty, some of them foreigners. They also work with teachers to gain experience on how to conduct the research.

“We study demography and its relation to social issues. We look at births, deaths and migration and try to piece together a picture of their consequences. We look at population trends now and in the future. We are also engaged in a lot of other activities like meetings. Faculty members and supporting staff get together and discuss various subjects once every two months, and we also hold meetings with the president of the Mahidol University and his team and the deans of other faculties twice a month.

“Our main mission is to conduct research in population, development and social issues and implement educational programs in these areas. We offer a Master’s Degree in Population and Social Research for Thai students. We also have three international programs open to Thai and foreign students: a PhD program in demography; a Master’s program in Population and Reproductive Health; and a Master’s program in Population and Social Gerontology. We also offer training based on request, meaning that if you are interested, for example, in reproductive health you can request that we arrange training sessions which last a week or two. We provide all the facilities. These sessions are open to Thais and foreigners.

“About half the students in the faculty are Thai, but the majority in the international degree programs are foreigners, mostly from Asian countries – Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar as well as Bangladesh, Nepal and Vietnam. We also have a fair number of students from the United States. The International Master’s Degree and Social Gerontology program is conducted in collaboration with Miami University in the US state of Florida. The students study one year in the US and one year in Thailand.

“We are a research institute, and we have about 30 faculty members engaged full time in that. The research focus is divided into five clusters as follows: society and changes in the population and family; population aging; sexuality, gender reproductive health and HIV/AIDS; migration and labor studies and population, environment and health. We tailor our research to answer questions about what is happening in Thai society, the region or the world. After we determine a good topic for research we write a proposal and ask for funding.

“We have private and government donors inside and outside Thailand. Donors from abroad include Wellcome Trust and Newton Fund in the United Kingdom and the UN Fund for Population Activities. In Thailand we get funding from the ministries of Public Health and Social Development and Human Security. We also receive money from the Thailand Research Fund, and Thai Health Promotion foundation” said Dr Rossarin, adding that donors have no influence on the institute’s findings. “We have research ethics.”

Last year the IPSR did studies on housing projects and the labor market in Thailand and other ASEAN countries. “Our researchers conducted interviews with people in the industrial sector in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam as well as in Thailand. They asked factory owners and human resource directors questions about their workers, and they were told that younger workers generally have quite a good record on performance. They are good at the difficult disciplines like engineering.

“However, in many cases their social skills are lacking. Many young workers keep to themselves and just look at the computer in their free time. They don’t know how to communicate with other people. The owners and human resource directors told us they wanted to encourage workers to socialize more and make friends.

“We also go to small villages to collect data from people living there. The institute has field stations in Kanchanaburi province, where there are a lot of Karen and Mon residents. Most of them can speak Thai and if they don’t we hire interpreters. The project started in 2000 with funding from Wellcome Trust. We have published our findings in international publications and journals. There is a Mahidol University campus in Kanchanaburi as well.

“The IPSR works closely with the College of Population Studies at Chulalongkorn University and other universities in Thailand involved in the same type of work as we are,” said Dr Rossarin.

“We are not in competition; we work together.”

What is old?

“We have to change the definition of ‘elderly,’” said Prof Pramote. “The Act on Older Persons B.E. 2546 (2003) defines an elderly person as anyone 60 years or over. I have proposed to the Ministry of Social Development and Human Security that this should be raised to 65 years. Actually, I don’t believe the government should try to attach a specific age to the term elderly. There are only a few countries in the world that do this.

“The age at which someone becomes elderly depends on the health of the individual. The age at which a person becomes too old to work also depends on health, as well as the job they are doing. The government has indicated that the retirement age could be raised, but in order to do this the definition of elderly needs to be changed or abolished altogether.

“One reason the government is reluctant to do this is that it might adversely affect older people in low income groups. Starting at age 60, people who don’t receive a government pension or social security benefits fund are entitled to a modest old age allowance.

“People over 60 also get a 50 percent discount on MRT tickets, and entrance is free at venues such as the National Museum and National Parks. My proposal is to change the definition of elderly, but do it gradually and in a way that doesn’t hurt people in low income groups, who make up about 34 percent of the over-60 population.”

Population Clock is ticking

If you search on the internet for the current Thai population you will find a lot of different figures depending on the website, some quite far apart. To see the most accurate estimate possible, you need look no further than the large red digital meter, named “Thailandometer Digital Board,” which is displayed at the entrance to the Institute for Population and Social Research of Mahidol University. The meter is updated every three minutes. When we visited on June 17, before the magazine went to the printers, the population of Thailand was 65,315,734.

Quiet schoolyards

On the other end of the spectrum, falling birth rates mean that many schools upcountry are closing quite simply because there aren’t enough students to fill the classrooms. “During the peak of the ‘population tsunami’ we built primary schools in almost every village,” said Prof Pramote. “Now there are far fewer kids and students from different districts and villages are being combined in fewer schools. If you look at the statistics you will see that thousands of schools have been closed.

“When you walked around a village 50 years ago you would hear lots of babies crying and children playing, but now you see mostly old people. And there’s another new phenomena: the old men and women are watching after the children because their parents have migrated to the city to find work. When they have a baby in the city, they send him or her back home to their parents to look after.”

The professor highlighted another worrying trend: “Almost everyone is in debt. The government is saying: ‘Prepare for your old age, you have to save money.’ But when people have a lot of debt and may even be having trouble putting food on the table, how can they save?

“In Thailand parents traditionally depend on their children when they get old. According to statistics the major source of income for around 50 percent of the elderly is their working children. But as we have seen, young people today are having fewer children. Many people never get married and have no children. On top of this they are living longer. So this important safety net for the elderly is vanishing. We are not like the Japanese, British or Germans, who receive generous pensions that allow them to live quite comfortably in Thailand.

“During the past 20 years rural Thailand has developed a lot, and that makes it more attractive to foreigners. There’s electricity in every village and good roads. Even if you live in a very small village you can go to a shopping mall on the weekend and buy just about anything you want. Maybe the most important thing is that communications have advanced so much. With mobile phones, internet and cable TV, foreigners can easily keep up with friends and news in their home countries.”

Shaping the future

Doctor Sakkarin Niyomsilpa, who joined the IPSR in 2010, said that a shrinking population has a potential to hurt the economy as the productive workforce may decline, though that is not inevitable. “Whether or not the Thai economy will suffer depends on our human resource development and future growth strategy.

“There are many variables to consider when predicting the state of the Thai economy in the future. If our people as a whole are better educated, especially in terms of technology and becoming more productive, I think incomes will increase faster along with the quality of life. That would more than compensate economic slowdown because of labor shortages in less productive activities. At the same time we can also import labor or outsource some types of work to neighbouring countries. If we have higher skilled people, the economic progress of Thailand is still possible, and the long-term population decline may not be that bad.

“As Prof Pramote said, it is also advisable to prolong the working life of Thai people by extending the retirement age. Not only will this allow people to earn and save more money, staying active makes people happier and can add years to their lives.

“The government is trying to set up a National Pension Fund, which is a first step towards long-term saving. I think that in the future there will be more funds like this, and this will help people to prepare for retirement.

“Thai mutual funds are growing very fast, so people are learning how to save. There are many things that we can and should do to implement a better retirement system. There are many possibilities for bringing the aging population out of the poverty they all too often find themselves in now.”