Welcome to my Yard, where you can follow my look at the week's NFL games, how I view the Vegas points spread and which teams I see as the best value

September 05, 2012

NFL Odds, Week 1: Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at ARIZONA CARDINALS

Please
gamble responsibly. That’s the sage advice that rightfully accompanies any
betting advertisement. Last year, I gave spread betting advice on every game of
the 2011 season (that can still be seen at Rob’s NFL Yard, but why would you
wish to revisit that?), which, while proving to be almost the most fun you can
have on this side of the pond, I quickly grew to realise that tipping up teams
based on the spread on offer in Vegas (or elsewhere, as I’ll be pointing out
this season) can prove ridiculously treacherous; hardly responsible tipping. If
I may be so bold as to type this, it’s one thing to pick your winners from
scratch, quite another when trying to justify why your hard earned should be
placed with faith on the Rams +7 points at home to the Cowboys.

I
wish I knew why I picked the Rams there, a team I hold no love for aligned as
they are along with Seattle in the NFC West. Perhaps I’m behaving like the
jilted groom at the altar. After all, the city that boasts one half of The
Golden Arches had the temerity to tease us Londoners with the promise of three
‘home’ games in 2012, ’13 and ’14, yet before we had time to discuss the
honeymoon in Paris, off they scarpered back to Missouri after one outing
against the Patriots this October.

Still,
we’re not bitter. How can we be? We have the Jaguars coming to town. Never let
it be said that us NFL Brits don’t ‘get’ the game.

So,
aside from being subjected to the big cats from Florida once a year for four
consecutive seasons, there are reasons to be cheerful for such small mercies
and, not unconnected to that is the fact that, despite Week 1 of the NFL season
ordinarily being one to keep your pennies firmly in your pocket, there are
invariably gems to be had and, lo and behold, one of two to be had this week is
Seattle in Arizona.

Conventional
wisdom has it that the Seahawks don’t travel well and that this is a reason to
be cautious when considering them this week. Where do I start on this one? We
lost in San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Dallas last season, no disgrace. Yes, the
defeat to the Cardinals to finish the season was wholly dispiriting, but our
wild card hopes had already gone up in smoke one week earlier so motivation
levels were hardly where they should have been. In my opinion, Seattle gave
that game to Arizona, which translates to those aforementioned motivation
levels being the polar opposite to the feeling among the team right now.

Now,
back to the Seahawks not travelling well. I do recall sitting through a turgid
defeat to Cleveland last season, but if you look in the record books, the
passing of time has relegated that to Mariners 3-6 Indians. The Seahawks were
allowed an elongated bye week having performed like giants in New Jersey in
Week 5 and, as it turns out, took the NFL up on its offer in Week 7.

Stunning
the Big Blue was thoroughly deserved (as 11 point underdogs, no less) and
although Seattle badly beat up on a badly beat up Bears team in Week 15, a
38-14 victory is no fluke so, even allowing for a little bias on my part, I
don’t sit in the camp that states the Seahawks are to be avoided this week.

Seattle’s
survived the recently completed preseason relatively unscathed, a turn of
events that hasn’t befallen the Cardinals. Not only have they lost starting
left tackle Levi Brown for the season, but now Jeremy Bridges, a solid backup
on the line, is also done for the season, leaving D’Anthony Batiste protecting
John Skelton’s blind side. Skelton’s been anointed the starter at QB, but, as
Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk is never coy in pointing out, all this means
is that Skelton will be the first to lose the job because, something else
Florio also likes to furnish us with is that when a team has two quarterbacks,
they really have no quarterback and it has to be admitted that, right now, with
the season upon us, Arizona really does appear to have no quarterback.

Cardinals
coach Ken Whisenhunt can only look at Seattle’s QB situation with envy, but
it’s amazing where solid drafting and shrewd free agency acquisitions can get
you. Whisenhunt bought Andy Reid’s Jedi mind trick after the lockout last year
when it came to giving up some of the Empire to acquire Kevin Kolb and the only
comfort he can derive from it is that he’s in good company when it comes to
teams being fleeced by the Philadelphia Skywalkers.

The
line for this one opened with Seattle +2.5, an incredulous spread in hindsight,
but who could’ve foreseen what Wilson would give us a glimpse of? The line has
turned on its head and it’s the Seahawks who now find themselves -2.5 (-3 on
some books) after a ton of public money on the team with the “sick” new
uniforms, if Jermichael Finley is to be believed.

While
all eyes will naturally be on Wilson, in case he should come up short (I love a
pun as much as the next prognosticator, but this one honestly isn’t deliberate),
Seattle’s offense shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball on the ground. Up
against a Cardinals defense that ranked 21st against the run last
year, Marshawn Lynch, Robert Turbin and Leon Washington should be able to find
plenty of space and all this of course is without taking into account the
scrambling ability of Wilson if/when the pocket collapses. Without tempting
fate too much, now the games that count are here, the Seahawks could have a
monster rushing day on Sunday, thus also controlling the clock.

When
Arizona chooses to run it, they possess a dynamic attack themselves...on paper.
Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams have everything an offense could want when
associated with the Skelton/Kolb double headed monster under center, but
Williams has yet to register a carry in the regular season after having his
rookie year wiped through injury while Wells’ preseason only began in the
fourth week of the meaningless schedule.

Seattle’s
defense is primed for a big year and they really couldn’t have wished for a
better team to make a statement of intent against than the Cardinals. A banged
up backfield, a shaky offensive line and a dire quarterback situation is what
awaits this opportunistic Seahawks D and if they can’t show the rest of the
league the potential to be a top five defense on Sunday, then, frankly, they’ll
struggle to prove it all season long, particularly when looking at a brutal
early schedule.

I
haven’t even mentioned Larry Fitzgerald. It’s because he shouldn’t even be a
factor this week. Should Skelton (or Kolb) be afforded the requisite protection
to thread the ball to him, he’ll likely find Seattle’s secondary all over
him...and some.

I
realise that I make this wager sound so easy, but it really should be. If the
Seahawks can come away with a road W to open the season, that’s all we can ask
for. However, with my head ruling my heart on matters of the wallet, that’s not
all that I’m asking for; I’m asking for them to cover the spread. I don’t want
us to just win by two, I need us to win by at least three in order to cover the
spread.

Seattle
can be backed -2.5 with, among others, Skybet, Blue Square, Paddy Power and
William Hill. Let the games begin.