As this post will make clear, I’m on the pessimistic side of the Cal fan-base this year. I’m actually somewhat optimistic about the long-term with Wilcox at the helm and with the current state of the facilities. But the reality for 2017 is that the talent cupboard was too bare and the new system Wilcox is putting in won’t be ready for prime time this year. Here’s a game by game preview:

Cal at North Carolina: After having caught Texas at exactly the right time in its history the last couple years, it unfortunately is time for our comeuppance. North Carolina is on the stronger side of their range right now and the Bears are on the weaker side. I expect this to be a lower scoring affair than we’re used to, but the Bears offense will have trouble being productive. Bears lose: 10- 24.

Cal vs. Weber State: If there’s one thing I have a lot of confidence in Wilcox in, it is his ability to win a game when he has the talent advantage. In this way, he shares a lot in common with Tedford (who knew how to grind out a win whenever he had the advantage). It will be interesting to see how much the offense can produce and how well the defense is gelling against a clearly inferior opponent. My feeling is we’ll see spurts of it, but there will be portions of the game that are worrisome for there season-long implications. Bears win easily: 38-13.

Cal vs. Ole Miss: This might be the toughest game of the season to predict. Will the Rebels play up to their talent level or will their coaching/sanction chaos hamstring them? Will they come to Berkeley expecting an easy win? Perhaps if I wasn’t closer to an Old Blue than I’d like to admit, I’d be more optimistic. Bears lose 23-42 (but it’s closer than that in the 4th quarter)

Cal vs. USC: When’s the last time Cal beat USC? When the last time it was even close? What makes you one think this is the year that changes? Bears get dominated: 10-42.

Cal at Oregon: I’m of the belief that Oregon is on the rise. However, Wilcox knows Eugene and will have Bears ready to play. But the Bears best won’t be enough. A single-score lead in the 2nd quarter is as close as the Bears will get: 20-31

Cal at Washington: I’m one who thinks Washington will take a little bit of a step back this year. If the game was in Berkeley, I would at least toy with the idea of an upset. But not in Husky stadium, which is even more intimidating in its new configuration. 23-35.

Cal vs. WSU: Here’s where the coaching staff will earn their salary. After a *very* tough start to the season, the Bears will be 1-5 with a number of losses they’d rather forget. How much can Wilcox and Co. keep the optimism up with the players going into a much softer half of the season. Sadly, WSU just keeps getting better and in my opinion will be the surprise team in the Pac-12 North. While I’ll put this one on my potential upset list, I think the Bears still lose. Their lone hope is the defense has matured a *LOT* through the first half of the season. 31-38.

Cal vs. Arizona: There’s only one team that got fewer points in the Pac-12 media poll than Cal and the Bears get to play them at home. Some good scheduling karma! (It’s about time.) The Bears will look good in this one and will let out a lot of frustration on Arizona. Win #2 comes in late October: 38-27.

Cal at Colorado: Colorado is the most over-rated team in the conference. They got decimated by graduations last year AND got lucky the way the schedule fell. Actually, technically, since decimated is only 10%, they got quadruple decimated. But, this will still be an upset, particularly on the road at altitude. Nevertheless, something in me says this is the game the Bears win that no one expects. It will be a low scoring affair where the defense wins the day. 17-13.

Cal vs. Oregon State: The optimist would say that Cal has a good shot at this one. But I think OSU is improving every year and will start to be firing on most of their cylinders by this point in the season. It will be competitive, but mistakes will cost the Bears: 27-31

Big Game: The horrible streak continues but there will be signs that parity is closer to being restored than we fear: 17-24

Cal at UCLA: At this point the Bears will just be playing for pride. And to make matters worse, UCLA may be playing to get to 7-5 and ensure themselves a respectable bowl spot. This is another one that at a different time and different place (Berkeley) the Bears would have more of a shot at it. I tell you what, if Wilcox takes the team down there and pulls off the upset, you’ll never hear the end from me of how I’m on the Wilcox bandwagon. As much as I’d like that to be true, I think the Bears peter out on this one: 17-35.

In summary, the Bears don’t get much schedule help and are in a tough spot talent wise. If there’s some good news hiding in the schedule it is that most of the winnable games are later in the season after the team has had some time to gel. If they over-perform my expectations, particularly if they can pull off a win against the Rebels, this team could go bowling and even reach 7-5 with wins over WSU, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon State and one of UCLA or Stanford. That’s the high water mark in my opinion.

3 Responses to “
2017 prediction post ”

Hi Ken. Any revised thoughts after the first game? It clearly must have surprised you and (to be fair) most of us. Just to let you know I’ve always read and enjoyed your stuff over the years (particularly liked you “On the Road Again” podcasts). Hope you stick with it.