I'm a big fan of comps. Comparables. Outer-markers. Players from NHL history whose careers are somewhat similar to a modern player who has written such a small script we need an indicator about their future. As a fan, I always look for the outer marker--just as Ranger fans did with Brad Park (in photo, with some other guy) early in his career. After all, why look for a comparable who ended up being a role player? Exactly. Who are the best comparables for the current group of young Oilers?
For the last several years, I've gone in search of comparables for Oiler prospects. Ales Hemsky's best comp was Rick Middleton, Rob Schremp's was Ron Chipperfield and on it went. I thought it might be a good idea to see if we can find some comparables from the NHL's past for the Oilers young guns. Some of these names will be familiar to Lowetide readers, but there are many new elements too.

Sam Gagner: We've identified two solid comparables: Doug Gilmour and Vincent Damphousse. A third (Doug Weight) is a hopeful comp but the two players came through different routes as prospects so we're still waiting for them to play in the same league at the same age. Here are three NHL players at age 20:

Gilmour and Damphousse played in an era where more goals were scored. In fact, it is quite a large gap. The NHL average for GF in Gagner's 20-year old season was 2.84; Damphousse 3.71; Gilmour 3.95. These comps aren't perfect (Gagner debuted at 18 years old so had more NHL experience by age 20 than the other two) but I think it is completely reasonable to argue Gagner is "in the range" with those two fine NHL players. Both Gilmour and Damphousse had "breakout" seasons (at 23 and 22 years old, respectively) so there might be a surge coming for Gagner.

Magnus Pääjärvi: We're looking for a reasonable 18-year old comparable from the Swedish Elite League that might help us project this kid into the future. With the season now done the young man ranks "in the range" with some well known SEL teenagers over the years.

Markus Naslund 39gp, 22-18-40 (1.03)

Tomas Sandstrom 36gp, 23-14-37 (1.03)

Daniel Sedin 50gp, 21-21-42 (.840)

Henrik Sedin 49gp, 12-22-34 (.694)

Peter Forsberg 39gp, 9-18-27 (.692)

Magnus Pääjärvi 49gp, 12-17-29 (.592)

Nicklas Backstrom 46gp, 10-16-26 (.565)

Anze Kopitar 47gp, 8-12-20 (.426)

Not everyone on the list is Swedish but they all played at 18 in the SEL. Backstrom and Kopitar rank below MPS here but it is important to remember that they (and Forsberg) were still in their development stages and had another gear. We don't know if our guy has overdrive.

I like Tomas Sandstrom as a comparable to our guy. Both have/had size and skill, both were well known as teenagers (Sandstrom had a couple of strong WJC's) and both counted foot speed and shooting ability as their calling cards as young men. Both were/are aggressive and both had Finnish connections despite playing in Sweden. As for the difference in their scoring totals and points-per-game (above), Sandstrom played on a team that scored 3.97 goals per game (143 in 36gp) and MPS plays on a team scoring 2.53 goals per game (137 in 54gp). Most of the modern players are playing in a deadball era, so the offensive difference between a 09-10 SEL player and a 82-83 SEL player (in terms of boxcars) has to be adjusted to make the comparison equal.

Taylor Hall: One of the things that makes this player unique is that he was beating OHL opposition about the face and hands at 15. Seriously. In his three OHL seasons Hall has averaged 41 goals and 93 points. I'd kill to find out his OHL shot totals but organized hockey can't release that for fear of reefer madness in the streets. Here are the top skill picks from Ontario's top league over the last several seasons:

Patrick Kane (2007) 58gp, 62-83-145 (2.50)

Sam Gagner (2007) 53gp, 35-83-118 (2.23)

Taylor Hall (2010) 57gp, 40-66-106 (1.86)

John Tavares (2009) 56gp, 58-46-104 (1.86)

Steven Stamkos (2008) 61gp, 58-47-105 (1.72)

Bobby Ryan (2005) 62gp, 37-52-89 (1.44)

Matt Duchene (2009) 57gp, 31-48-79 (1.39)

I'm always a little wary of the London Knights because their TOI totals seem to skew their point totals (Rob Schremp), so the Kane-Gagner totals are a little suspect (although they are clearly quality players). Hall ranks in the middle of the group, so I thought it might be an idea to average their NHL totals at age 18. All but Ryan played in the year after their draft, and the averaged totals of the other five players (81gp, 21-34-55) would be outstanding. As for a specific comparable, I think his style most closely resembles Patrick Kane. We need to also remember that Kane (a November birthday) was much older as a rookie (about 9 months older than Gagner) and that Hall is also a November birthday. I think Kane is the comp, the outer marker. Now that doesn't mean I think he's Patrick Kane. It means he's "in the range" with Tavares and Stamkos, though. Excellent comparable. We'll see.

Jordan Eberle: The more unique the player, the more difficult it is to find a comparable. In looking for an Eberle comp, I looked for WHL players taken in the middle of the first round during the 2000's. The candidates don't match: some played a different style, others were less gifted offensively or derailed after their draft day and before they turned pro. So I moved up the draft list and added a couple or three from the top 10. Here's the list of similar player-types at age 17:

Zach Hamill (2007) 69gp, 32-61-93 (1.35)

Gilbert Brule (2005) 70gp, 39-48-87 (1.24)

Peter Mueller (2006) 52gp, 26-32-58 (1.12)

Jordan Eberle (2008) 70gp, 42-33-75 (1.07)

Kenndal McArdle (2005) 70gp, 37-37-74 (1.06)

Devin Setoguchi (2005) 69gp, 33-31-64 (.928)

Not all of these kids are exactly like Eberle, but I've excluded the Getzlafs, Ladds and Fehr's from the list. I think his best match from the group is Setoguchi. Here they are as 18-year olds:

Eberle 61gp, 35-39-74 (1.21)

Setoguchi 65gp, 36-47-83 (1.28)

Setoguchi is bigger (6.00, 195) and played with extreme skill once he reached the NHL (which perhaps skews our view of the comp) but it looks pretty solid at age 18. Setoguchi led his team in points (with a 20 point cushion) as the Blades won 41 games (3.22 GF per game). Eberle led his Pats in scoring (Weal just 4 points behind) and the team won 27 games (3.17 GF per game). I think it is a good match at 18. Here's 19:

Eberle 57gp, 50-56-106 (1.86)

Setoguchi 55gp, 36-29-65 (1.18)

Setoguchi once again led his team in points (by 9 this time) and the club won 33 games. Setoguchi's Prince George club averaged 3.07 GF per game. Eberle led his Pats in points (once again just 4 clear of Weal) and the Pats won 30 times. Their GF per game average was 3.42. Despite Eberle's edge offensively I still think they're a solid match. Setoguchi was an 8th overall pick, but I think Eberle would be much higher than 22nd overall in a re-draft of the 2008 group.

In the future, I'll do another comp-post (sorry) and if you want me to run some numbers on a specific prospect don't hesitate to post it. Also, if you have a better comp for Gagner, Hall, Pääjärvi or Eberle please post the name and I'll add them to the list.

Finally, does this kind of thing hold interest for you? I enjoy looking at this kind of thing in order to track prospects and get an idea about their outer marker, but am not certain it is something a large group of people enjoy. Let me know.

Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.

No problem. I normally wouldn't have made any type of comment on a column that didn't hold interest for me, but I read your other blog as well and consider your effort to be that of a professional and your desire for all feedback was genuine.

Rookie Camp hasnt started, the draft is long past, the Free Agent frenzy is over, Khabibulin wont meet Justice for months, No news on the Souray front, and Lowetide just pumped out a thought provoking and potentially controversial article on OilersNation.

Yeah, I like the post.

The fact that this article might have a flock of people up in arms saying that the conclusions or methods are faulty is a good thing. It means that people are reading, thinking about the Oilers, and sharing their thoughts.

This is good stuff (yes, count me as interested). I particularly liked the Hall and MPS (I'm still calling him that) comparisons. Both are quite exciting reads, and I hope they turn out as well as the comparables suggest they could.

What are your thoughts LT on Hall going back to Junior? I can say that I'm pretty confident that the Oilers won't do it, but would you? Can he benefit from another year there?

I personally hate seeing players rushed, but it's hard to say that another year would help much (although it's hard to say it would hinder him too). On the plus side too (and correct me if I'm wrong), he is eligible to play in OKC starting in the 2011-12 season... so if he struggles in the NHL this year, he could always go down to develop some more.

I'm interested to hear what other thoughts are out there on him and whether the Oilers SHOULD keep him up. I'll be taking notes, to find out who flip flops on it, like all the "Gagner should have played another year in Junior guys" who came out of nowhere (kidding!).

I don't always like all the stats-based articles, but I always seem to like ALL Lowetide articles... makes me wish you started here long ago (or that I read your other site more regularly, lol).

Some stats guys have a way of making their reads come off as condescending towards others that may not agree... Lowetide you are NOT one of those guys. Keep pumping out the quality (and quantity) you've been posting... ON is better because of it (and ON was basically my favorite site before you came).

IMO, I dont think Hall would benefit from another year in Junior, OKC-yes (if early struggles become apparent). I think it would be a confidence blow for a #1 overall pick to be returned to Junior, as well as a demoralizer for the fans after the last 3 years of misery.

No way Hall see's another OHL game or an AHL game ever... JMO. Eberle, on the other hand, I could see starting in the A... other good players have began their pro careers there too. Can't wait to see Pääjärvi in action... just wish it were in red & yellow silks instead ;-)

I like your equivalencies posts, and personally need comparables to get a sense of what we're looking at year-to-year. Inevitably when you're having a beer beside someone at the pub who rattles on about trading "hate target of the week", numbers are the only way to safely navigate the argument.

The numbers you've used in other posts to show NHLE are from formulas you've come up with or collaborate with Desgardins, is that right?

How complex would it be to create a formula for era equivalancies? Is there some way to factor in shot totals, save percentages, league average of goals scored and so on to create an era variable?

I imagine the answer is "super fekking complex" but it's gotta be possible.

Skidrow: Interesting points, and I do agree too, I want to see him up in the NHL. I'm happy too that if things bomb with him (which I don't think they will, at least by his fault), at least he can go down to the A a bit (which shouldn't be demoralizing, given the names that have spend time there).

Rosscreek: I do agree on Eberle too, although not having seen him up in the NHL just yet, who knows. But I've kind of thought that he would have the toughest time adjusting early on (although I think long term he'll be great for the Oil). I really have no factual basis for this belief, just basing it mostly on his size ;) Think Marc Savard, perhaps.

MPS has played against men for several seasons now, Hall has nothing to prove in the OHL, and Eberle is the oldest and is coming off a year that saw him star in the WHL, WJHC, AHL, and WHC. At each level Eberle excelled, there isnt any reason at this point to think he NEEDS to play more AHL games.

Racki: Hall won't go back. If he does go back and stagnates--or gets hurt--the Oilers organization would look like idiots. Hall played in the OHL for three seasons and he's better than the league by a wide margin now.

IF the NHL allowed 18-year olds to play in the AHL we could talk about options, but Hall can't play there.

I'm not saying Eberle WILL play in the A, just that if I had to guess which 1 of the 3 MIGHT be most likely to spend some time there, I'd say Eberle... which is also to say that I don't believe either of Taylor Swift or .357 Magnum start anywhere other than Edmonton.

MPS has played against men for several seasons now, Hall has nothing to prove in the OHL, and Eberle is the oldest and is coming off a year that saw him star in the WHL, WJHC, AHL, and WHC. At each level Eberle excelled, there isnt any reason at this point to think he NEEDS to play more AHL games.

I too believe all 3 will make the big club out of TC and remain here all season, though(with Hall as the likely exception) it's unlikely all 3 will settle in top 6F spots this year, that we expect them to from a long term perspective, though that would be a nice bonus.

Really? I still love that show, though. I figured the new avatar would (and probably still will) bug more people than Turtle. I also loved The Sopranos, if that gives me any cred... and the new HBO show Boardwalk Empire looks to be good, so I have that going for me... lol.

To me it's a bit of a toss up. Hall cant play there even if the team wanted him to, so it's between Omark, MPS, and Eberle. I think Omark is a lock for the AHL. A lock.

Between MPS and Eberle, I dont know who is more likely to spend time there. Eberle is smaller, but a year older and has more offensive pedigree. MPS is bigger but has no experience playing the North American game, his pedigree is good too but he might need to adjust.

I still think the big 3 all play the season in the NHL this year, but if I were to guess it would be that if he struggles the Oilers would send MPS down to the AHL to get 1st line minutes on North American ice.

Hall cant play in the AHL until he's 20. The only way he plays there is if the OHL season is over.

I never said he could play in the AHL this year... I said for the 2011-12 season (which he'll be 20 by December 31st for). I was saying that it's a fall back plan if a season in the NHL this year doesn't pan out. That part probably isn't evident unless you read both my posts in the thread though ;)

Great posting, how about a comparable for Omark? Not necessarily for just SEL players, but late European bloomers in general. Here's hoping we don't have another Brunnström. Another player of interest would be Olivier Roy and how he compares to other past WJHC goalies who have made it to the show or to goalies of past years who had similar numbers. Perhaps comparables for Chris Vande Velde to other power forwards out of the collegiate stream.

I concede that the chances of Hall being returned to Junior are slim to none for so many reasons-really it's a moot point to even debate that possibility, but my question is- has that ever happened? A #1 overall Forward being returned to junior/college after being drafted? (I realize this has happened with a Defenseman-Erik Johnson recently)

To me it's a bit of a toss up. Hall cant play there even if the team wanted him to, so it's between Omark, MPS, and Eberle. I think Omark is a lock for the AHL. A lock.

Between MPS and Eberle, I dont know who is more likely to spend time there. Eberle is smaller, but a year older and has more offensive pedigree. MPS is bigger but has no experience playing the North American game, his pedigree is good too but he might need to adjust.

I still think the big 3 all play the season in the NHL this year, but if I were to guess it would be that if he struggles the Oilers would send MPS down to the AHL to get 1st line minutes on North American ice.

The Oilers have been flogging the crap out of Hall, MPS and Eberle on their website all summer. Not sure if I agree with it, but my guess is all three will play in the NHL this year.

LT does track his comps from year to year.... he's been using the damphousse and gilmour comps for gagner pretty much since he was drafted

LT - you *know* that i love these types of posts.... so keep them coming.... history has a way of repeating itself, and even though people will nit-pick comparables, they give you a good "range of expectations" for a given player

Gagner is going to be better than Gilmour.
Paaravi is going to be better than Forsberg.
Hall is going to score at a pace better than Stamkos.
Eberle is going to be more complete than Setagouchi.
Brule will probably get 80 points soon.
And Omark might be the next Sealnne.
All of this by 2011. Is that correct or did I miss the jist of this exercise?

It's been bothering me for many years that 18-year-olds are eligible to play in the NHL but not the AHL. The argument that the AHL is too rough of a league for 18-year-olds is hogwash, in my opinion, because it seems highly improbably that it is a more physical league than the big league. The real motivation seems to be to protect the quality (and profitability) of the CHL, as too many of its high end players would jump up the the A after turning 18 given the option. One further tell about this motivation is that European born players are allowed to play in the AHL at the age of 18: where's the consistency in that if part of the purpose is to protect the players?

Despite my irritation at this rule, I see some validity to it, and think that there are only a handful of players below the age of 20 who could handle the A. The best resolution/compromise that I've been able to think of is to allow each AHL team one underage player per season. This would allow each franchise the option to give a developmental advantage to one protege per year.

Would any of the NHL, NHLPA, AHL, or CHL have any interest in making this happen, though? I think all of them except the CHL might.

Not incidentally, I think that if it were possible, a season in the AHL would be the best alternative for Hall. He clearly has nothing further to gain from playing in the OHL, yet a jump right to the big show might be too much for him and could stunt his development.

You answered your own question... The real motivation seems to be to protect the quality of the CHL, as too many of its high end players would jump up the the A after turning 18 given the option.

The best resolution/compromise that I've been able to think of is to allow each AHL team one underage player per season. This would allow each franchise the option to give a developmental advantage to one protege per year. - That's not the worst idea I've ever heard (*cough*madjam*cough*)

I was hoping MPS, just because he's never spent anytime playing in the smaller rinks would have spent at least 30 or so games down in the AHL getting acustom to the north american style. Now that the likes of Mike Comrie arent coming back i highly doubt he'll go there to start the season if at all despite any problems he might have.

Eberle IMO showed he's so close to being ready to play in the NHL in the worlds this last spring i highly doubt he'll see the ice with the barons.

Taylor Hall, i just hope he dosnt "suck the hind banana" this year, but i could see a Eberle/Hall Calder Trophy that would be freakin sweet!!!

Chris Phillips - 1st overall, 1996... returned for an extra year of Jr.

Ed Jovanovski - 1st overall, 1994... returned for an extra year of Jr.

Mike Modano - 1st overall, 1988... returned for an extra year of JR.

EDIT: just realized you asked specifically about forwards... only 1 of which I included ;-)

Thanks RossCreek. So I guess Modano would be the only example of this occuring from a forward perspective. Would be very unlikely for the Oilers to follow that route even if Hall were to struggle in TC.

@ Lowetide"Finally, does this kind of thing hold interest for you? I enjoy looking at this kind of thing in order to track prospects and get an idea about their outer marker, but am not certain it is something a large group of people enjoy. Let me know."

Yes, yes sir it does!! These articles are brilliant, thought provoking, and give the Nation something meaty and meaningful to chew on, instead of rumors and "what if"s.

This is a terrific article. It has much the same theme as reasonable expectations. I have observed that many maligned players are run out of town simply because fans expect more than is reasonable. Love to see articles laying out a groundwork for expectations so we don't all get ahead of ourselves.

For the record I would LOVE it if Gagner ended up being like Gilmour or Weight. I hope he's an Oiler for his entire career. I don't think there has been a hockey player that had a decent career and only ever worn an Oilers Jersey.