This joint study, by the World Bank and the Turkish Ministry of Development, explores the status and effects of good jobs in Turkeys current economy.
... Voir la suite After a brief account of economic events, it examines the relationship between growth and employment in Turkey, with a particular regard to the participation of different social groups in the labor market, such as women and youth. It then analyzes where jobs are being created and which activities are the most productive for the Turkish economy, and assesses if jobs have moved to more productive activities in recent years. Finally, the report proceeds to measure the impact of different types of jobs on the welfare of an entire household and on the households relative position in the overall income distribution.
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This joint study, by the World Bank and the Turkish Ministry of Development, explores the status and effects of good jobs in Turkeys current economy.
... Voir la suite After a brief account of economic events, it examines the relationship between growth and employment in Turkey, with a particular regard to the participation of different social groups in the labor market, such as women and youth. It then analyzes where jobs are being created and which activities are the most productive for the Turkish economy, and assesses if jobs have moved to more productive activities in recent years. Finally, the report proceeds to measure the impact of different types of jobs on the welfare of an entire household and on the households relative position in the overall income distribution.
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This report is organized in five chapters: chapter one, a framework for Social Safety Nets (SSN) reform in the Middle East and North Africa, describes and illustrates the reasons for the region's growing need for SSN reform and establishes the framework for renewed SSNs.
... Voir la suite Chapter two, the challenge: poverty, exclusion and vulnerability to shocks, analyzes the challenges facing the region's poor and vulnerable households, which SSNs should focus on as a priority. Chapter three, the current state of SSNs in the Middle East and North Africa, analyzes SSN spending and assesses different aspects of the SSN systems' performance (including coverage, targeting, generosity, and the impact on poverty and inequality of both subsidy and non-subsidy SSNs). It benchmarks such performance against that of other regions and countries and identifies the gaps in existing systems. Chapter four, the political economy of SSN reforms in the Middle East and North Africa: what do citizens want? Presents new evidence on citizens preferences concerning redistribution and SSN design, using newly collected data (MENA SPEAKS surveys and the Jordan Gives behavioral experiment). It also discusses how political economy considerations could be taken into account in designing renewed SSNs in the region. Finally, chapter five, the way forward: how to make safety nets in the Middle East and North Africa more effective and innovative analyzes and proposes an agenda for reform and the path for moving forward, using global experience and the evidence presented in the preceding chapters.
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The Arab Spring and subsequent transitions provide opportunities for better governance, economies free of cronyism and more inclusive models of growth.
... Voir la suite Social Safety Nets (SSN) will be a key component of building more inclusive economies and societies. And here too there are grounds for optimism. Most SSN programs around the world were introduced during transition periods (post-Soviet independence, Indonesia's decentralization, and regime change in Brazil and Portugal), and have remained in place since. Effective SSNs can break the cycle of intergenerational poverty by helping families to keep children healthy and in school. SSNs and increased social services can also deal with spatial pockets of poverty in slums and rural areas by promoting the demand for social services and by building community assets. Most SSNs in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA SSNs) finance energy subsidies, crowding out more effective intervention. In addition to surveys, this study conducted a behavioral experiment among a representative sample of the Jordanian middle class, collecting information on preferences for redistribution to the poor using valuable trade-offs.
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The report aims to meet two broad objectives: (a) enhance knowledge about the current state of existing social safety nets (SSNs) and assess their effectiveness in responding to new and emerging challenges to the poor and vulnerable in the region by bringing together new evidence, data, and country-specific analysis; and (b) open up and inform a debate on feasible policy options to make SSNs in the Middle East and North Africa more effective and innovative.
... Voir la suite First chapter, 'a framework for SSN reform,' describes and illustrates the reasons for the region's growing need for SSN reform and establishes the framework for renewed SSNs. It identifies key goals for SSNs (promoting social inclusion, livelihood, and resilience) and illustrates how these goals have been achieved in some parts of the region and elsewhere. Second chapter, 'key challenges that call for renewed SSNs,' analyzes the challenges facing the region's poor and vulnerable households, which SSNs could focus on as a priority. Two large groups are at higher-than-average poverty risk: children and those who live in rural or lagging areas. The chapter examines factors such as inequality of opportunities and lack of access to services that can perpetuate the lower human development outcomes among the poor in these groups. It also describes the challenge of vulnerability. Finally, it identifies particular social groups that are at a higher risk of exclusion from access to services and employment. Third chapter, 'the current state of SSNs in the Middle East and North Africa,' analyzes SSN spending and assesses different aspects of the SSN systems' performance. Fourth chapter, 'the political economy of SSN reforms in the Middle East and North Africa: what do citizens want?' presents new evidence on citizens' preferences concerning redistribution and SSN design, using newly collected data. It also discusses how political economy considerations could be taken into account in designing renewed SSNs in the region. Fifth chapter, 'the way forward: how to make safety nets in the Middle East and North Africa more effective and innovative,' proposes an agenda for reform and the path for moving forward, using global experience and the evidence presented in the preceding chapters.
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The report aims to meet two broad objectives: (a) enhance knowledge about the current state of existing social safety nets (SSNs) and assess their effectiveness in responding to new and emerging challenges to the poor and vulnerable in the region by bringing together new evidence, data, and country-specific analysis; and (b) open up and inform a debate on feasible policy options to make SSNs in the Middle East and North Africa more effective and innovative.
... Voir la suite First chapter, 'a framework for SSN reform,' describes and illustrates the reasons for the region's growing need for SSN reform and establishes the framework for renewed SSNs. It identifies key goals for SSNs (promoting social inclusion, livelihood, and resilience) and illustrates how these goals have been achieved in some parts of the region and elsewhere. Second chapter, 'key challenges that call for renewed SSNs,' analyzes the challenges facing the region's poor and vulnerable households, which SSNs could focus on as a priority. Two large groups are at higher-than-average poverty risk: children and those who live in rural or lagging areas. The chapter examines factors such as inequality of opportunities and lack of access to services that can perpetuate the lower human development outcomes among the poor in these groups. It also describes the challenge of vulnerability. Finally, it identifies particular social groups that are at a higher risk of exclusion from access to services and employment. Third chapter, 'the current state of SSNs in the Middle East and North Africa,' analyzes SSN spending and assesses different aspects of the SSN systems' performance. Fourth chapter, 'the political economy of SSN reforms in the Middle East and North Africa: what do citizens want?' presents new evidence on citizens' preferences concerning redistribution and SSN design, using newly collected data. It also discusses how political economy considerations could be taken into account in designing renewed SSNs in the region. Fifth chapter, 'the way forward: how to make safety nets in the Middle East and North Africa more effective and innovative,' proposes an agenda for reform and the path for moving forward, using global experience and the evidence presented in the preceding chapters.
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The report aims to meet two broad objectives: (a) enhance knowledge about the current state of existing social safety nets (SSNs) and assess their effectiveness in responding to new and emerging challenges to the poor and vulnerable in the region by bringing together new evidence, data, and country-specific analysis; and (b) open up and inform a debate on feasible policy options to make SSNs in the Middle East and North Africa more effective and innovative.
... Voir la suite First chapter, 'a framework for SSN reform,' describes and illustrates the reasons for the region's growing need for SSN reform and establishes the framework for renewed SSNs. It identifies key goals for SSNs (promoting social inclusion, livelihood, and resilience) and illustrates how these goals have been achieved in some parts of the region and elsewhere. Second chapter, 'key challenges that call for renewed SSNs,' analyzes the challenges facing the region's poor and vulnerable households, which SSNs could focus on as a priority. Two large groups are at higher-than-average poverty risk: children and those who live in rural or lagging areas. The chapter examines factors such as inequality of opportunities and lack of access to services that can perpetuate the lower human development outcomes among the poor in these groups. It also describes the challenge of vulnerability. Finally, it identifies particular social groups that are at a higher risk of exclusion from access to services and employment. Third chapter, 'the current state of SSNs in the Middle East and North Africa,' analyzes SSN spending and assesses different aspects of the SSN systems' performance. Fourth chapter, 'the political economy of SSN reforms in the Middle East and North Africa: what do citizens want?' presents new evidence on citizens' preferences concerning redistribution and SSN design, using newly collected data. It also discusses how political economy considerations could be taken into account in designing renewed SSNs in the region. Fifth chapter, 'the way forward: how to make safety nets in the Middle East and North Africa more effective and innovative,' proposes an agenda for reform and the path for moving forward, using global experience and the evidence presented in the preceding chapters.
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Armenia is currently experiencing significant demographic changes, which have far-reaching policy implications. Shifts in a country's demographic profile happen only gradually they do not often figure prominently in day-to-day policy deliberations.
... Voir la suite However, an awareness of these trends and their ramifications is essential to inform decision-making on a wide range of economic and social issues. This policy note: (i) provides an overview of key demographic changes unfolding in Armenia; (ii) explores their implications for working-age and elderly populations; and (iii) highlights linkages with social spending and the poor. The major drivers of Armenia's demographic shift are population decline and an aging population. With fewer people of working age expected to support a growing percentage of elderly persons, policymakers might consider a number of policy questions. These include: (i) how to balance poverty-reduction policies aimed at different stages of the life cycle; (ii) how to ensure that future productivity gains compensate for the slowdown and eventual shrinkage of the working-age population; and (iii) how to maintain the fiscal sustainability of pension and health programs as the share of older people continues to rise. The note is structured as follows: section two summarizes the key demographic trends underway in Armenia; section three presents a profile of poverty and social spending by age; section four analyzes the policy issues In each of these three sections, the poverty reduction angle is emphasized. The final section provides a summary of the key messages.
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Armenia is currently experiencing significant demographic changes, which have far-reaching policy implications. Shifts in a country's demographic profile happen only gradually they do not often figure prominently in day-to-day policy deliberations.
... Voir la suite However, an awareness of these trends and their ramifications is essential to inform decision-making on a wide range of economic and social issues. This policy note: (i) provides an overview of key demographic changes unfolding in Armenia; (ii) explores their implications for working-age and elderly populations; and (iii) highlights linkages with social spending and the poor. The major drivers of Armenia's demographic shift are population decline and an aging population. With fewer people of working age expected to support a growing percentage of elderly persons, policymakers might consider a number of policy questions. These include: (i) how to balance poverty-reduction policies aimed at different stages of the life cycle; (ii) how to ensure that future productivity gains compensate for the slowdown and eventual shrinkage of the working-age population; and (iii) how to maintain the fiscal sustainability of pension and health programs as the share of older people continues to rise. The note is structured as follows: section two summarizes the key demographic trends underway in Armenia; section three presents a profile of poverty and social spending by age; section four analyzes the policy issues In each of these three sections, the poverty reduction angle is emphasized. The final section provides a summary of the key messages.
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The Government of Armenia (GOA) has expressed concerns over the potential work disincentives effects of its social assistance programs. The most important of these programs is the Family Benefit Program (FBP).
... Voir la suite This program was established in 1999; after Armenia consolidated several Soviet-era categorically-targeted programs into single cash based and targeted social safety net. The program accords priority to poor and vulnerable social groups, such as the elderly, persons with disabilities, and families with children. The FBP achieves a good targeting performance, about 72 percent of the program resources go to the poor. This note aimed to respond to the GOA's request and to assess the extent of work disincentives in the FBP. The analysis herein was in part based on the findings of a World Bank mission in Armenia on November 15-22, 2010. First, the study team briefly reviewed international evidence, from both developed and developing countries, on the work disincentive impacts of similarly designed social assistance programs. Second, it compared the demographic profile of FBP beneficiaries to that of non-beneficiaries, it identified individuals who could be expected to work and appraised their labor market opportunities and outcomes. Third, it looked at the size of the FBP transfer in relation to the prevailing minimum wage, average wage, poverty line, and average consumption expenditures of Armenian households, and thereby investigated whether FBP beneficiaries could survive on the benefit alone, and whether it is possible to substitute between wage employment and the FBP. Fourth, it examined the FBP targeting mechanism in order to identify any potential, even if unintentional, negative impacts on work incentives. Fifth, it used a rigorous empirical analysis to estimate the magnitude of any potential work disincentives created by the FBP.
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The Government of Armenia (GOA) has expressed concerns over the potential work disincentives effects of its social assistance programs. The most important of these programs is the Family Benefit Program (FBP).
... Voir la suite This program was established in 1999; after Armenia consolidated several Soviet-era categorically-targeted programs into single cash based and targeted social safety net. The program accords priority to poor and vulnerable social groups, such as the elderly, persons with disabilities, and families with children. The FBP achieves a good targeting performance, about 72 percent of the program resources go to the poor. This note aimed to respond to the GOA's request and to assess the extent of work disincentives in the FBP. The analysis herein was in part based on the findings of a World Bank mission in Armenia on November 15-22, 2010. First, the study team briefly reviewed international evidence, from both developed and developing countries, on the work disincentive impacts of similarly designed social assistance programs. Second, it compared the demographic profile of FBP beneficiaries to that of non-beneficiaries, it identified individuals who could be expected to work and appraised their labor market opportunities and outcomes. Third, it looked at the size of the FBP transfer in relation to the prevailing minimum wage, average wage, poverty line, and average consumption expenditures of Armenian households, and thereby investigated whether FBP beneficiaries could survive on the benefit alone, and whether it is possible to substitute between wage employment and the FBP. Fourth, it examined the FBP targeting mechanism in order to identify any potential, even if unintentional, negative impacts on work incentives. Fifth, it used a rigorous empirical analysis to estimate the magnitude of any potential work disincentives created by the FBP.
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The Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region has been hit by a crisis on multiple fronts. Countries in ECA are facing major, interrelated, external macro-financial shocks.
... Voir la suite The first is the global growth slowdown leading to falling export market demand. In addition, the prospects for inflows of remittances to low-income countries have been downgraded as economic activity in migrant host countries has declined. The second is the financial deleveraging by major banks and other financial institutions in developed economies, which has markedly reduced the availability, and increased the cost, of external finance across public, corporate, and financial sectors. The third is the recent commodity price changes, which have involved a reversal of much of the commodity price boom of 2007 and 2008. The main objective of the study is to understand the impact of these macroeconomic shocks on household well-being. In particular, it seeks to understand the key macroeconomic shocks confronted by the region and the impact of such shocks on household welfare, including the effect on household income flows, consumption levels, and liabilities. It will also assess possible strategies to cope with the crisis and manage the adverse social impact.
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The actual distribution of world income across countries is extremely unequal, much higher than the within country inequality faced by most countries.
... Voir la suite The question studied in this paper is: How do international policies on aid, trade, and factor movements affect the international distribution of income? To begin to answer this question, the authors calculate the impact by decile of the actual level of aid flows and the effect on potential income of merchandise trade restrictions by high-income countries. They find that aid's distributional impact is equality enhancing. While it is extremely small in terms of changes in standard inequality measures, it is of some importance for the lowest decile of the world's income distribution. The authors also find that some of this impact is counteracted by lost potential income in the lower deciles from merchandise trade barriers imposed by high-income countries. In brief, there is a contradiction in international policies where aid's equality-enhancing effect is somewhat offset by protectionism. They also discuss some of the analytical difficulties with extending this analysis of redistribution to other forms of international factor flows-more specifically, migrant worker and profit remittances. The analysis presented is partial and static and ignores within country distribution. As such, the authors suggest that future research should explore the distributional consequences of the broader general equilibrium effects, dynamic effects, and externalities associated with aid, trade, and factor flows. Future research should also analyze the within country distributional impacts of international policies.
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Much of the academic debate on the effectiveness of foreign aid is centered on the relationship between aid and growth. Different aid-growth studies find conflicting results: aid promotes growth everywhere; aid has a zero or negative impact on growth everywhere; or the effect of aid on growth depends on recipient-specific characteristics, such as the quality of institutions and policies.
... Voir la suite Although these studies fuel an interesting debate, cross-sectional macroeconomic studies cannot be the last word on the topic of aid effectiveness. In this paper, Dollar and Levin introduce microeconomic evidence on factors conducive to the success of aid-funded projects in developing countries. The authors use the success rate of World Bank-financed projects in the 1990s, as determined by the Operations Evaluation Department, as their dependent variable. Using instrumental variables estimation, the authors find that existence of high-quality institutions in a recipient country raises the probability that aid will be used effectively. There is also some evidence that geography matters, but location in Sub-Saharan Africa is a more robust indicator of lower project success rate than tropical climate. The authors proceed to disaggregate the success rate of World Bank projects by lending instrument type and by investment sector, finding that different institutions are more important for different types of projects. The finding of a strong relationship between institutional quality and project success serves to provide further support to the hypothesis that aid effectiveness is conditional on institutions and policies of the recipient country.
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The authors examine the allocation of foreign aid by 41 donor agencies, bilateral and multilateral. Their policy selectivity index measures the extent to which a donor's assistance is targeted to countries with sound institutions and policies, controlling for per capita income and population.
... Voir la suite The poverty selectivity index analogously looks at how well a donor's assistance is targeted to poor countries, controlling for institutional and policy environment as measured by a World Bank index. The authors' main finding is that the same group of multilateral and bilateral aid agencies that are very policy focused are also very poverty focused. The donors that appear high up in both rankings are the World Bank's International Development Association, the International Monetary Fund's Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Norway, Ireland, and the Netherlands. As a robustness check the authors alternatively use institutional quality measures independent of the World Bank and find the same pattern of selectivity. They also find that policy selectivity is a new phenomenon: in the 1984-89 period, aid overall was allocated indiscriminately without any consideration to the quality of governance, whereas in the 1990s there was a clear relationship between aid and governance (institutions and policies). This increasing selectivity of aid is good news for aid effectiveness. The bad news is that the aid agencies that the authors survey vary greatly in size. Some donors that are largest in absolute size, such as France and the United States, are not particularly selective. Japan comes in high on the policy selectivity index but far down on the poverty selectivity index, reflecting its pattern of giving large amounts of aid in Asia to countries that are well governed but in many cases not poor.
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