This time around, it seems, there’s a real thirst for change in Brockville.

Or it may just be an illusion, one as fleeting as the lawn-life of campaign signs.

It all depends on whether voters stick to the patterns of recent history.

Every election season, talk of change emerges. And this election is happening in an era of widespread voter desire for change.

The change momentum began a while ago. It gave us the previously unthinkable result of an NDP government in Alberta, then propelled Justin Trudeau to the Prime Minister’s Office.

More recently, it brought Doug Ford to Queen’s Park.

And in the United States, there’s this guy I sometimes tweet about.

Some have a sense there is a similar momentum for change among Brockville voters, and signs for first-time candidates, some in their twenties, have sprouted on autumnal lawns across the city.

But for that momentum to produce an actual “change election,” voters will have to lose some muscle memory.

I am not here offering an endorsement of any candidates. Nor am I arguing for or against change. This is one of those times when, given my multiple roles at this newspaper, I will use this space for observation alone.

And my observation is that, in my two decades covering municipal government here, Brockville voters have been particularly averse to change, which has mostly come to city hall when incumbents decided to call it a career.

Such is the case, of course, with the office of the mayor. With David Henderson exiting the stage, we will get a new face.

And with three of eight incumbents opting not to seek re-election as councillors, there will be some change at the council level as well.

But “change” can be a relative thing.

This time around, along with the five incumbents seeking re-election, there are two candidates, Larry Journal and Tony Barnes, who have previously served as councillors.

And one of the three departing incumbent councillors, Jason Baker, is running for mayor.

So it is not inconceivable that Monday night’s results bring us a “new” council in which only one of nine members has never before sat at the table.

In which case “change” would best be summed up in the old French saying: “Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.”

Let’s take recent history as a guide, or at least the past 15 years.

In 2003, when Brockville was still operating under the ward system, voters brought only one new member on board, Barnes, who topped the east ward polls.

In 2006, the first of the four-year councils, all six incumbents seeking re-election easily kept their jobs. Henderson won his first term after defeating Barnes for the mayoralty, and while the field of candidates was wide enough for Brockville to have had a whole new council, only three new councillors – one per ward – joined the team: Gord Beach, Henry Noble and Jane Fullarton.

It was the next time around, in 2010, when the wards were abolished, that city hall saw the closest thing in recent history to a real shift, at least on the council side.

While Henderson kept his job, three incumbents were sent packing: Noble, Beach and Stu Williams. A fourth councillor, Louise Severson, left council and ran unsuccessfully for mayor.

That election, however, was less a change election than a rally-around-the-flag election for what would later become known as the Aquatarium. Henderson was perceived as a skeptic of the facility, then known as the Maritime Discovery Centre, and former mayor Ben TeKamp ran in defence of the project as part of a slate that included Mary Jean McFall and David Beatty for council.

The latter two got in, along with newcomers Leigh Bursey and David LeSueur.

Fast-forward to 2014, when Beatty and McFall left the scene and council was reduced by one seat. That year, there were 19 candidates, meaning the number of newcomers could have ranged from one to nine.

We ended up with one. Henderson was re-elected as mayor while all seven incumbent councillors on the ballot easily won re-election, leaving Phil Deery as the only newcomer.

So, recent history would suggest there’s a heavy tilt toward incumbents in the electoral mind, which might bring some comfort to Baker, Journal, Barnes and the five incumbents.

However, the study of electorates is an imperfect science. People change, conditions change and other variables are at play.

And yours truly is an imperfect political scientist.

Monday’s results may very well bring us a new adage: Things never change in Brockville – until they do.

City hall reporter Ronald Zajac can be reached at Rzajac@postmedia.com