U.S. Election Night 2016

Here in Times Square we ran into famed pollster Frank Luntz. He told us that he thinks Hillary Clinton will win tonight by a narrow margin. They key states he says to watch are Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada and Michigan. "Americans are really angry and fed up and don't like either of the two candidates." He hopes a concession speech from the loser comes early and from the heart and that the winner will reach across the aisle and political lines to begin the healing process. He says it will take years to heal the divisions from this election and that the level of anger in America is near what it was in the early 70s.

by Steven D'Souza edited by CBC News11/8/2016 11:18:14 PM

So, they're home.

The cameraman who is normally assigned to the White House travel pool is here.

Maybe it's pizza in front of a bank of TVs for the Obamas tonight. Maybe there will be a vat of aspirin to go with it.

The rest of the country may not know what tomorrow brings, but Barack Obama does.

The plan is he sends a written statement of congratulations to the president-elect tonight, if one is confirmed.

Tomorrow he may address the nation about the result. Or not. Then he'll meet with the new keeper of the POTUS title.

The transition starts fast. And this might surprise, but the Clinton and Trump transition teams have both been meeting with White House officials.

At the same time. In the same room. It has all apparently been cordial.

There will then be 10 more weeks when Obama is in charge. He can probably forget a Supreme Court nomination confirmation or something similarly huge, but he'll be busy enough.

And, in case it doesn't feel real enough already, if he listens carefully he can probably hear the construction for the inauguration parade pretty much outside his rather impressive windows.

As some states now start counting votes, it may be worth considering Donald Trump on Fox News this morning:

"I do think a lot of the polls are purposefully wrong. I think I can almost tell you by the people that do it.

"The media is very dishonest, extremely dishonest. And I think a lot of the polls are phoney. I don’t even think they interview people.

"I think they just put out phoney numbers. I do think this.”

by Paul Hunter edited by CBC News11/8/2016 11:36:49 PM

This guy has predicted the president correctly for 30 years

Meet Allan Lichtman, a political forecaster who has correctly predicted the winner of the presidential election since 1984.

Licthman’s “Keys to the White House” predictors do not rely on polls, but on a series of critical factors he calls keys. And this election cycle, according to Lichtman’s predictors, the outcome should mean victory for…

…Donald Trump.

I spoke with Lichtman, who says that for the first time in more than three decades of doing this, he’s hedging his own prediction. The big reason is that Trump’s candidacy is just so dang unusual.

"This should be a change election, and in that kind of change election, a generic Republican should win this," Lichtman told me. "But what you have in Donald Trump is a history-shattering candidate for a host of reasons." (For example, a Bloomberg national poll this week suggested that a more conventional conservative such as 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney would have defeated Clinton by 10 percentage points.)

Trump has no record of public service, Lichtman notes. "And newspapers that have never endorsed anyone but a Republican in 50-100 years are endorsing Hillary Clinton." (Lichtman, by the way, wanted to point out that his predictions are not endorsements.)

Based on Lichtman’s 13 "keys," if six or more factors are determined to be false, or go against the party in power, that party's candidate loses.

Here are the keys:

Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

by Matt Kwong edited by CBC News11/8/2016 11:38:54 PM

The Obamanator has made his way to Times Square.

by Steven D'Souza edited by CBC News11/8/2016 11:39:08 PM

Two to three people have been wounded but gunfire near a polling station in Azusa, Calif., east of Los Angeles, but there's no indication yet the shooting is election related, police say.

by CBC News11/8/2016 11:41:31 PM

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by CBC News11/8/2016 11:49:30 PM

A man armed with a rifle opened fire on Tuesday near a polling station in the Southern California town of Azusa, wounding two to three people and prompting authorities to lock down the polling place and surrounding park, police said.

A spokesman for the sheriff, Deputy Vincent Plair, said there was no immediate indication that the incident was related to election day or the polling station.

Law enforcement officers came under fire as they arrived on the scene, about 40 kilometres northeast of Los Angeles, and the suspect was believed to be at large and holed up in the vicinity, according to accounts from Azusa police and the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Office.

by CBC News11/8/2016 11:53:55 PM

In some of the too-close-to call states, the get-out-the-vote ground game could be the deciding factor. Experts say the ability of a campaign to get its supporters out to the polling stations can be worth one to two points in favour of their candidate.

Trump is at a disadvantage. Clinton's ground game machine dominates, has twice as many field offices than Trump across the country and is stronger in every battleground state.

Trump, early in his campaign, made a conscious choice not to invest in these ground-game resources, said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. Instead, Trump hoped that communicating to voters through numerous rallies and press conferences would draw them to the polls.

by Mark Gollom11/8/2016 11:54:44 PM

The first results should start to come in shortly after 7 p.m. ET.

by Natalie Holdway edited by CBC News11/8/2016 11:54:49 PM

ICYMI:

While we’re waiting for tonight’s results, why not invest ten minutes (yes, agreed, these days that's a lifetime) and watch the doc we put together a week or so ago on one of the more unsettling aspects of America that's been brought into focus during this campaign -- the hard lines now drawn between its divided population.

by Paul Hunter edited by CBC News11/8/2016 11:55:59 PM

From James Rebec, of communications firm Cision:

Twitter users love #MAGA.

Regardless of what’s happening on the ground and at the polls, on Twitter Trump fans love using the #MAGA and #MakeAmericaGreatAgain hashtags. Shown in the graph below is the prevalence of campaign-hashtag use by Twitter users in the past day. Blue depicts use of Clinton’s #ImWithHer hashtag. You can barely see it.

by James Rubec11/9/2016 12:00:47 AM

Americans who have voted already in the presidential election appear to be evenly divided on the benefits of international trade.

According to an exit poll conducted by Edison Research for national media outlets, about four out of 10 voters believe trade among nations creates jobs. Another four out of 10 say it takes jobs from Americans.

Republican nominee Donald Trump has railed against decades of U.S. trade policy and has energized working-class voters with his promises to create more jobs at home. Democrat Hillary Clinton has historically supported U.S. trade deals, including as secretary of state.

But she has backed off her support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership. President Barack Obama's trade agreement with Pacific Rim nations is still pending.

by CBC News11/9/2016 12:02:49 AM

Aaron Coe stops to think as he votes at Henry W. Grady High School in Atlanta. (John Spink/Atlanta Journal-Constitution via Associated Press)

by Bruce Reeve11/9/2016 12:05:59 AM

The media waits to be let into the room where votes are counted in Hamilton County, Cincinnati.

by Jennifer Barr edited by CBC News11/9/2016 12:06:09 AM

It's probably not all that surprising, but every TV at Trump HQ seems to be tuned to Fox News.

The secret service naming conventions suggest that all names for presidents and their families must start with the same letter.

And they must be easily distinguished from each other when said quickly or over the phone.

If early reports are right, Donald Trump's name could be MOGUL. So, it would be M's for the rest of the family.

The Clinton's are E's. They were given "E" names back when Bill Clinton was president and they have kept them.

He was known as Eagle, Chelsea was Energy. And Hillary Clinton was Evergreen. If she wins tonight she may actually keep that name.

Well, Evergreen and POTUS that is.

by Adrienne Arsenault edited by CBC News11/9/2016 12:15:56 AM

by Haydn Watters11/9/2016 12:16:55 AM

Hillary Clinton fills out her ballot at the Douglas Grafflin Elementary School in Chappaqua, N.Y. (Brian Snyder/Reuters)

by Bruce Reeve11/9/2016 12:17:15 AM

Her campaign tells us Hillary Clinton is watching returns with her family, wanting to spend this time with her two grandchildren. Officials also say she has two speeches prepared -- one for a win and one for a loss. This crowd clearly expects a victory, though. As supporters begin to pour into Javits Center - some are shouting and others are practising the wave. I can't seem to post pictures - we might be losing wi-fi strength as the room fills up.

by Lyndsay Duncombe edited by CBC News11/9/2016 12:17:37 AM

Rudy Fernandez

"It pained me to do it, but for the first time in my life I voted Democrat."

Rudy Fernandez, a Florida Republican and a former special advisor to George W. Bush, is a "never Trump" man, leaving him no other option than to vote for Hilary Clinton, his first Democratic vote ever.

Fernandez says he helped George W. Bush get 44 per cent of the Hispanic vote in 2004, but Trump, he predicts, will be lucky to get 20 per cent, some suggest less.

"We have to dust off that 2012 Republican postmortem and begin to attract the growing Hispanic population", says Fernandez, a Mexican American.

After the Trump campaign, with its anti-immigrant stance and slurs about Mexicans, is it too late? "It might be," says Fernandez, "when you lose someone like me then there’s a long way to come back."

He predicts Clinton will take Florida by two percentage points, double what Obama got, in 2012.

by Susan Ormiston edited by CBC News11/9/2016 12:19:35 AM

Perched on the stage next to the podium set aside for Trump tonight in Manhattan is a glass box with a red Make America Great Again cap inside. (And actually there's another on the other side of the stage as well.) Hashtag unusual.
(Photo: Jason Burles/CBC)