Bqaiq is a more valuable target but I hope Yemen strikes Yanbu just to get the Iranians off the hook. It would be a better demonstration that they can hit targets deep inside the KSA in spot where it would be really hard for anyone other than them to hit.

Pave Way IV

The May 14th drone strikes were pretty deep – 320 km west of Riyadh. At this point, I don’t think my dual-citizen US chickenhawk neocon warmongers will accept any other possibility than Iran for the perpetrator of this and all future attacks. I though they were going to throw us a curveball this time and blame Iraqi PMUs. It’s about time we invaded that place again – they don’t seem to understand that the US annexed all of Iraq and it’s oil. Why haven’t the Iraqis and those PMU guys left yet? Get off our land!

From Twitterland FWIW, the Crown Prince is reportedly furious that the US didn’t blame Iran immediately and launch a retaliatory strike. I guess Pompeo was the only one that got the Saudi memo. Damn you, Microsoft Mail!

I guess I would also have to argue that Abqaiq should have been pretty hard to hit with that wall of expensive Patriot systems keeping an eye on things. In fact, we just sent another US-manned Patriot system to Riyadh. Bad timing. And you would think the Saudis would be terrified of errant boomerang MIMs after the last fiasco in Riyadh.

No worries, though. Someone on Twitter already figured out the Ayatollah’s sneak-attack-from-behind scheme, which makes more sense (in ways I can’t possibly fathom) than a Houthi attack from the southwest. The Pentagon reads Twitter, so they’re on to Iran’s clever plan by now and have likely shown the tweet to Trump.

Patriot batteries are red circles, hawk batteries are orange.
Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket along the coast to watch the Persian gulf, wow is that stupid. But then again, this is Saudi Arabia we are talking about. :)

Zionism = EVIL

Patriots are dud and no match for terrain hugging NOE drones and missiles which evade any radar by flying a few feet over the terrain and use self correcting navigation and with warm air turbulence and ground clutter in deserts it is almost impossible to get a radar image of any coming small flying object. The glaring blind spot also left Saudi Arabia exposed to a threat despite spending billions annually on its defense budget and US have deployed thousands of soldiers to protect ARAMCO oil infrastructure. Now western military planner have to go back to the drawing board in total embarrassment.

Small drones do have the advantage of having a very small RCS. But I doubt they have NOE, this would require ground sensing equipment, made for a large and expensive drones. Note the attack came from the WNW, over an urban area, Where the terrain is very cluttered.

Zionism = EVIL

Never underestimate Iranian capabilities. There is a good objective analysis by CSIS think tank and that basically says that Saudis are fucked.

Costly Saudi western made defenses prove no match for drones, cruise missiles

“The attack is like Sept. 11th for Saudi Arabia, it is a game changer,” said a Saudi security analyst who declined to be named.

“Where are the air defense systems and the U.S. weaponry for which we spent
billions of dollars to protect the kingdom and its oil facilities? If they did this with such precision, they can also hit the desalination plants and more targets.

Saudi policymakers have long dreaded a strike against a desalination plant in Jubail which serves central and eastern Saudi Arabia. A successful attack would deprive millions of people of water and could take a long time to repair, the Saudi source said.

PZIVJ

I was speaking of N Yemen drones.
You are the one pointing a finger at Iran.

Zionism = EVIL

I am pointing out as most mature analysts are saying that this was not a major attack and intended as a “message” to the Saudis to stop the war and withdraw from Yemen. As I have previously said, if Iran had been involved then it would have sent hundreds of missiles and drone and not just 10. It is time the world understand the overwhelming Iranian capabilities. I have been posting factual info that has proved to be correct. Iran has at least 12 operational nukes and that is why no one is game to attack Iran. The Saudis are idiots and should stop provoking Iran and seek peace. The US is a sunset power and now a global laughing stock. Mark my words, NO ONE WILL BE ATTACKING IRAN!

PZIVJ

“The Saudis are idiots and should stop provoking Iran and seek peace”
Well stated :)

Zionism = EVIL

To be perfectly blunt and honest with you, the Americunts and their western poodles are running a third grade protection racket to fleece with dumbass Wahhabi pimps of the Persian Gulf. Seriously, it does not take a PhD in aerodynamics to realize that the distance from the southern shores of the Persian Gulf to the glass exposed shithole of Dubai for any drone is less than a few minutes from Abu Musa, so what kind of a missile defence system can protect any of the Arab shitholes? Iran has played very nice so far, but its patience also has limits. These Bedouin pimps need to come to their senses as no amount of lemon Americunt weaponry can protect them. These fucking morons would be better off buying a map.

Saudis are wasting money on weapons that don’t work and wars they can’t fight or win. Peace is a better option.

Ashok Varma

US has a history of telling lies to justify its aggression against mostly defenceless small nations. Iran is a bridge too far.

Zionism = EVIL

The dumbass Saudis got the message as intended and are now downplaying the humiliation and have made no effort to attack Yemen since Buqaiq went up in flames. There are backdoor channels through Oman which is trying to get them to withdraw from Yemen and improve relations with Iran before all of Saudi infrastructure goes up in flame. The Saudi morons spend more than Russia on weapons and could not even detect a single drone, despite the Americunt dope smokers manning the THAAD and Patriots.

Zionism = EVIL

“Most conventional air defense radar is designed for high- altitude threats like missiles,” said Dave De sRoches at the National Defense University in Washington.

“Cruise missiles and drones operate close to the earth, so they aren’t seen because of the earth’s curvature. Drones are too small and don’t have heat signature for most radar.”

Intercepting drones possibly worth several hundred dollars with ineffective Patriots is also extremely expensive, with each missile costing around $3 million.

“It’s a very target-rich environment,” said a US industry source with knowledge of Saudi Arabia. “They’ve kicked them right where it hurts and there’s plenty more of them around. This was a small targeted drone attack, intended more as a message to the Saudis than to inflict a fatal blow. In a all-out war, the Iranians will not be behaving with such restraint, but will unleash the full force of their over-whelming drone and missile capabilities.

Pave Way IV

Khurais: 1.5 m bbl/day
Shaybah: 1 m bbl/day
Ghawar: 5.8 m bbl/day

all three above use Abqaiq for finishing crude, most of which is sent to Ras Tanura for export. Abqaiq is reportedly shut down for (latest) at least 2 – 3 weeks. So it’s either 5.7 m bbl/day lost (Reuters) or 8.3 m bbl/day if none of the three fields can ship to the finishing plant.

For domestic consumption, Saudi Arabia is massively dependent on its own cheap oil, especially for electricity, although slowly switching to gas. Domestic consumption is somewhere just under 4 m bbl/day, so even at recent high output levels, it only had 5.8 m bbl/day left over to export.

By Reuter’s 5.7 m bbl/day figure, Saudis only have 100 thousand bbl/day to export. VLCC tankers can typically carry 2,000,000 bbls (320,000 m3) of crude. Alternatively, if you add the production of the feeder fields together, Saudi’s 9.8 m bbl/day production (Reuters) has been reduced by 8.3 m bbl/day, leaving 1.5 m which will all be diverted to domestic use. The rest will have to come from strategic reserves.

in their futile attempt to occupy and control Yemen. That’s not counting the billion or so in repairs the damaged oil facilities will need. And that’s presuming the Houthi don’t attack any other parts of the Saudis oil infrastructure, which will only add more expense. In a few weeks, the Saudis may need to import oil just for domestic consumption.

See what happens when you piss of the Houthis long enough?

Garga

Saudis promised to restore about 2mn bbl before the end of September. I think your calculations are about right and they simply deduced it from their total loss.
It’s so bad, they cut the pipeline carrying crude to Bahrain (230k bbl/day). No more free oil for the fat dude!

thanks Pave Way IV for Saudi domestic analysis, as I see no analysis on this in either mainstream or financial western media.

I read the Saudi economy, all ‘State’ owned, runs at a loss so is permanently on life support from oil and gas. So there could lead to social unrest if parts of the economy have to be reduced shut down leading to job lay-offs and delayed + lower salaries.

Within Saudi Arabia, the Yemen war must be putting a lot strain that we are not hearing about.

Zionism = EVIL

This is hardly new analysis but confirms the capability of the newest generation of Iranian and Russian drones that use NOE technology to evade the most “modern” western radar systems. The Americunts and filthy Zionist pigs are blowing smoke up the Wahhabi dumbasses arse by selling them dud patriots and even dudder “Iron dud”…..

U.S., Saudi Military Forces Failed to Detect Attack on Oil Facilities

Drones and missiles—which officials increasingly believe were launched from Yemen —appeared to have flown low to the ground so that they weren’t detected by radar or defense systems.

WASHINGTON—U.S. and Saudi military forces and their elaborate air-defense systems failed to detect the launch of airstrikes aimed atSaudi Arabian oil facilities, allowing dozens of drones and missiles to
hit their targets, U.S. officials said.

Zionism = EVIL

Billions of dollars spent by Saudi Arabia on supposed cutting edge Western, mostly US military hardware mainly designed to deter high altitude attacks has proved no match for low-cost drones and cruise missiles used in a strike that crippled its giant oil industry and exposed US weaponry as complete lemon.

Saturday’s assault on Saudi oil facilities that halved production has exposed how ill-prepared the oil rich but technologically inept Persian Gulf states are to defend themselves spending billions on US weapons. The Saudis, despite repeated attacks on vital assets during their ill-fated four-and-a-half year foray into the war in neighboring Yemen to topple the legitimate government and impose a Wahhabi quisling regime of an aging despot Hadi, who has spent most of the war in a US hospital in Minnesota.

Saudis need to reappraise their political and military vulnerabilities and work out a modus vivendi with Iran the regional technological and military powerhouse. Iran maintains the largest ballistic and cruise missile capabilities in the Middle East that could overwhelm virtually any Saudi or Israeli missile defense
system, according to think-tank CSIS, given the geographic proximity of Tehran and its regional allies and Iran’s growing military industrial network, a war with Iran is simply not a realistic option as even Trump has acknowledged. The Saudi strategic and security interests would be better served by creating a peaceful co-existence with Iran and giving up delusional ambitions to rival Iran, a country with much bigger industrial base, military power and engineering infrastructure.