02662cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002400070245014100094260006600235490004200301500001800343520135000361530006101711538007201772538003601844690005601880690005601936690014801992700002002140700001802160710004202178830007702220856003802297856003702335w18673NBER20150802152330.0150802s2013 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aEichengreen, Barry.10aGrowth Slowdowns Reduxh[electronic resource]:bNew Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap /cBarry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park, Kwanho Shin. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2013.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18673 aJanuary 2013.3 aWe analyze the incidence and correlates of growth slowdowns in fast-growing middle-income countries, extending the analysis of an earlier paper (Eichengreen, Park and Shin 2012). We continue to find dispersion in the per capita income at which slowdowns occur. But in contrast to our earlier analysis which pointed to the existence of a single mode at which slowdowns occur in the neighborhood of $15,000-$16,000 2005 purchasing power parity dollars, new data point to two modes, one in the $10,000-$11,000 range and another at $15,000-$16,0000. A number of countries appear to have experienced two slowdowns, consistent with the existence of multiple modes. We conclude that high growth in middle-income countries may decelerate in steps rather than at a single point in time. This implies that a larger group of countries is at risk of a growth slowdown and that middle-income countries may find themselves slowing down at lower income levels than implied by our earlier estimates. We also find that slowdowns are less likely in countries where the population has a relatively high level of secondary and tertiary education and where high-technology products account for a relatively large share of exports, consistent with our earlier emphasis of the importance of moving up the technology ladder in order to avoid the middle-income trap. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aE0 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF0 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aN1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics • Industrial Structure • Growth • Fluctuations2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aPark, Donghyun.1 aShin, Kwanho.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18673.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1867341uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w18673