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A couple of key data points due this week will determine the fate of the gasoline market for the rest of the summer.

Gasoline futures are on the downswing after spiking to a nearly three-year high on April 29. It's the reverse of the usual trend in that market; prices tend to rise entering the summer, on the assumption that vacationing U.S. drivers will consume more of the fuel.

But drivers have balked at prices that blew past $4 a gallon in many parts of the country, and peaked at an average $3.98 nationwide in May. Demand rose sharply when drivers took to the road before Memorial Day. But gasoline use on the Friday before that holiday was 3.7% below last year's level, according to a MasterCard's SpendingPulse report.

On Tuesday, MasterCard will release its gasoline-spending survey covering the full holiday weekend, with the Department of Energy following with its demand data on Wednesday. Those figures will offer the first full glimpse at the summer driving season. If enough Americans appear to be cancelling their road trips, gasoline's recent dip could turn into a rout. High supply levels built up in anticipation of strong summer demand wouldn't see their customary drawdowns. And gasoline would become the weak link in the energy complex, during what should be its strongest season.

"With pump prices up by $1 on the year, it will be interesting to see the first real litmus test for the repercussions," wrote analysts with JBC Energy recently. U.S. retail-gasoline prices averaged $3.79 a gallon at the end of last week, according to the AAA. Friday, front-month July gasoline futures ended 0.9% higher, at $2.9931 a gallon, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, 14% below their April high.

Despite growing signs that demand was struggling this spring, refiners had a strong incentive to churn out the fuel. In April, supplies were at their lowest for that month since 2007. U.S. gasoline production has jumped 7% since late April and, as of last week, supplies were above the five-year average, according to the Energy Information Administration.

SO FAR, HIGH PRICES AT THE pump are keeping demand too low to use all of that stockpiled fuel, even factoring in the Memorial Day surge. A high unemployment rate is also putting a lid on demand by reducing the number of commuters.

"Another week of strong demand next week may help erase some of the [supply] overhang in the gasoline market, but we'll need more help," Carl Larry, director of oil research and derivatives at Blue Ocean brokerage, wrote last week in a note.

The futures market is already giving up on gasoline. Prices of heating-oil futures surpassed gasoline on Wednesday. That was only the fourth time in the past 20 years that this has happened in June.

Barring a mass, last-minute change in Americans' driving habits, it could take another natural disaster to revive the gasoline market. Prices soared relative to heating oil and crude oil futures in mid-May, when flooding along the Mississippi threatened refineries. A major hurricane could have the same impact if it hit the refinery corridor along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.

BRIAN BASKIN is the news editor for energy markets at Dow Jones Newswires.