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There is only one thing that might be corrected: regarding Episode 1 being the "true events", it isn't exactly true, because we can confirm in Episode 4 that Kinzo is dead. So many of his ramblings in the first Episode cannot exist, which is even more confirmed in Ep5.
It is very likely that the "original world" was like Ep1, but there is a huge margin of manipulation here.

There is only one thing that might be corrected: regarding Episode 1 being the "true events", it isn't exactly true, because we can confirm in Episode 4 that Kinzo is dead. So many of his ramblings in the first Episode cannot exist, which is even more confirmed in Ep5.
It is very likely that the "original world" was like Ep1, but there is a huge margin of manipulation here.

Most can be "true events" if you assume that the time the events are presented is not sequential.

I believe there's also a scene where Kanon reports to Kinzo as well. (or was this episode 2...?) This could be a previous year's family conference.

I believe there's something strange about Kinzo in general.
Although the red text has confirmed his death I'm still waiting for the red text that conifrms that Kinzo is a person and is the father of Krauss, Eva, Rudolf, and Rosa.

"Natsuhi. When did Kinzo ever say it was okay for you to engrave the One-winged Eagle into your heart? Those were just the words of the Kinzo from your delusions, weren't they? ......You know, the real Kinzo. In his entire life, not once did he trust you from the bottom of his heart, and not once did he consider letting you bear the family crest!"

Basically, this scene is definitely confirmed as a delusion, not even a mistake. It is not the real Kinzo at all.
Therefore, the red that confirms no one can mistake someone/something for Kinzo cannot be applied here: because it is a delusion, not someone/something that pretends/looks like Kinzo.

Therefore, it isn't even a non sequential sequence: it is a lie, a complete delusion.

That is not possible, again because of Episode 4 red statement that prevents anyone to mistake someone for Kinzo.
No one can consider someone "kinzo" if they aren't. If Natsuhi believed a person X is Kinzo, that is the same as mistaking someone for Kinzo.

This is from this very basis that Battler proved that his perspective isn't reliable, therefore he isn't the detective. By the same premise, it means any screentime for Kinzo cannot be anything but a delusion.

EDIT: Even Dlanor herself couldn't counter Battler's claim, because she first stated like you did: with Knox's 9th commandement, any observer has their own perspective when Battler claimed Kinzo is dead.
Then, he just countered saying it is not possible because of Ep4 red.

Ep4 and Ep5 Bern's red use "金蔵".
Again, Episode 4 red could be applied for Episode 5. Therefore, it is applicable for all games.

From this premise, Kinzo's death and "no one can mistake someone for Kinzo" are applied to Episode 1.
Also, Natsuhi always considered the "head of the Ushiromiya", so it is clear she is "considering" the man before her in Ep1 as "Ushiromiya Kinzo".
Ergo, it goes within Ep4 statement and Bern's red.

Regarding who is the "ideal" candidate from a writer's perspective, the matter is somewhat trickier for Umineko than a standard mystery. Why? Well, it's pretty simple; the red text.

In a novel without the meta-world attached, even if ryukishi presented four to seven scenarios where the same murders turned out differently, we'd have no proof of the various little theories that were advanced and shot down over the course of the games. Thus, the killer is "open" because he can basically pull anything he wants out of his ass. Maria is actually a midget assassin? Hey, you can't show she wasn't!

But with the red text, he limits himself as author considerably. If he says in red that Battler isn't the killer EVER, he cannot go back on that. While that sounds inconsequential for Battler since he's the main character, anything that limits the ability of other characters to act also limits who would be an ideal culprit to the writer.

For example, say we want to suspect Rudolf. Okay, that's fine, he's got lots of traits that make him an ideal mastermind. He's clever, he's shady, he has a strong connection to Battler as his father, he has a motive (he's the only one with an heir safely off the island).

But, as we know, he dies in the First Twilight in episodes 1, 2, and 4. Allegedly anyway. For the sake of argument, let's say that over the course of the first 5 or 6 games it's confirmed that Rudolf does in fact die each time when the game suggested he did (this more or less WAS confirmed for 1 and 2, but still). Now we have a problem if we're writing this thing. If we want Rudolf to be the "true" killer, we have to explain how he manages to make people die well after his own death. There aren't very many ways to pull that off without seeming lame. So as the writer, even if I want to make Rudolf the mastermind, my hands are somewhat tied. I could possibly still pull it off, but I've made it much harder on myself.

On the other hand, the LESS information we have about someone, the more suspicious they might become. No one probably thinks Hideyoshi is the mastermind, but on the other hand nobody knows enough about him to say. Nanjo is very suspicious because we know more or less everything about him that ought to be suspicious (his surprisingly good survival record, his obvious authority as the sole medical professional, what he must know about Kinzo), but he's almost TOO suspicious, because we haven't been told ANYTHING that could mitigate him as a criminal. Indeed, the lack of information "whitewashing" Nanjo makes him immediately suspicious, but I wonder if maybe it's too suspicious. Plus "the doctor did it" is up there with "the servant did it" in murder mystery no-nos.

So basically I've arranged the people like so, from a strict author's perspective (i.e. this has nothing to do with the information about them in any particular game):

Suspicious
Shannon (lots of fingers pointing her way)
Rudolf (would have to explain his dying though)
Kyrie (stated by many people)
Kumasawa (she clearly knows too much, but can she act on it?)

Not That Suspicious, But Plausible
Krauss (suspicious but remarkably inept)
Jessica (her personality doesn't seem to fit, but it's not impossible)

Reasonably Unsuspicious
Gohda (would be at the bottom but for the extra TIP that makes him seem harmless)
Battler (main character)
Maria (too obvious and lacks the means, but could be an unwitting accomplice)
Kinzo (well, I mean, being dead and all)

Almost TOO Unsuspicious
George (everything about him is wrong to me, he's too perfect)

George. He's not underdeveloped, he has secrets, he has a ruthless side that's been hinted at in the story, he's extremely intelligent, and he's one of the few people who might have a plausible reason to murder his immediate family (solving the motive problem that plagues things like Natsuhi killing Jessica). He is easy to avoid suspecting because he tends to have an alibi, but as a mastermind he wouldn't necessarily need to do things himself. He is one of the few characters with a clear plan for his future, and that plan has obstacles that a Rokkenjima mass murder might solve.

Plus, Shannon's suspicion points a finger at George as well. It's not to say he'd order her to kill, but we can't be sure of anything about their relationship knowing that one or both of them may not be innocent victims.

Of course, there's really not a single fact to back up any of this. Though George's alibi is occasionally a bit flimsy.

Regarding who is the "ideal" candidate from a writer's perspective, the matter is somewhat trickier for Umineko than a standard mystery. Why? Well, it's pretty simple; the red text.

In a novel without the meta-world attached, even if ryukishi presented four to seven scenarios where the same murders turned out differently, we'd have no proof of the various little theories that were advanced and shot down over the course of the games. Thus, the killer is "open" because he can basically pull anything he wants out of his ass. Maria is actually a midget assassin? Hey, you can't show she wasn't!

But with the red text, he limits himself as author considerably. If he says in red that Battler isn't the killer EVER, he cannot go back on that. While that sounds inconsequential for Battler since he's the main character, anything that limits the ability of other characters to act also limits who would be an ideal culprit to the writer.

For example, say we want to suspect Rudolf. Okay, that's fine, he's got lots of traits that make him an ideal mastermind. He's clever, he's shady, he has a strong connection to Battler as his father, he has a motive (he's the only one with an heir safely off the island).

But, as we know, he dies in the First Twilight in episodes 1, 2, and 4. Allegedly anyway. For the sake of argument, let's say that over the course of the first 5 or 6 games it's confirmed that Rudolf does in fact die each time when the game suggested he did (this more or less WAS confirmed for 1 and 2, but still). Now we have a problem if we're writing this thing. If we want Rudolf to be the "true" killer, we have to explain how he manages to make people die well after his own death. There aren't very many ways to pull that off without seeming lame. So as the writer, even if I want to make Rudolf the mastermind, my hands are somewhat tied. I could possibly still pull it off, but I've made it much harder on myself.

On the other hand, the LESS information we have about someone, the more suspicious they might become. No one probably thinks Hideyoshi is the mastermind, but on the other hand nobody knows enough about him to say. Nanjo is very suspicious because we know more or less everything about him that ought to be suspicious (his surprisingly good survival record, his obvious authority as the sole medical professional, what he must know about Kinzo), but he's almost TOO suspicious, because we haven't been told ANYTHING that could mitigate him as a criminal. Indeed, the lack of information "whitewashing" Nanjo makes him immediately suspicious, but I wonder if maybe it's too suspicious. Plus "the doctor did it" is up there with "the servant did it" in murder mystery no-nos.

So basically I've arranged the people like so, from a strict author's perspective (i.e. this has nothing to do with the information about them in any particular game):

Suspicious
Shannon (lots of fingers pointing her way)
Rudolf (would have to explain his dying though)
Kyrie (stated by many people)
Kumasawa (she clearly knows too much, but can she act on it?)

Not That Suspicious, But Plausible
Krauss (suspicious but remarkably inept)
Jessica (her personality doesn't seem to fit, but it's not impossible)

Reasonably Unsuspicious
Gohda (would be at the bottom but for the extra TIP that makes him seem harmless)
Battler (main character)
Maria (too obvious and lacks the means, but could be an unwitting accomplice)
Kinzo (well, I mean, being dead and all)

Almost TOO Unsuspicious
George (everything about him is wrong to me, he's too perfect)

George. He's not underdeveloped, he has secrets, he has a ruthless side that's been hinted at in the story, he's extremely intelligent, and he's one of the few people who might have a plausible reason to murder his immediate family (solving the motive problem that plagues things like Natsuhi killing Jessica). He is easy to avoid suspecting because he tends to have an alibi, but as a mastermind he wouldn't necessarily need to do things himself. He is one of the few characters with a clear plan for his future, and that plan has obstacles that a Rokkenjima mass murder might solve.

Plus, Shannon's suspicion points a finger at George as well. It's not to say he'd order her to kill, but we can't be sure of anything about their relationship knowing that one or both of them may not be innocent victims.

Of course, there's really not a single fact to back up any of this. Though George's alibi is occasionally a bit flimsy.

Honestly I don't George would kill just because they wouldn't approve of him and Shannon. If anything I'm sure the only ones who wouldn't approve would be Eva and Kinzo. But then again, Kinzo is dead and I doubt George would care what Eva thinks in this situation.

Me personally, I don't like the Shannon/George dynamic, if only because we have no explanation as to why they liked each other so much, excluding the 'magic made them fall in love'. We get a little insight into George's view of the relationship in EP 3, but still nothing as to why they liked each other all the sudden. Jessica/Kanon is the same, but then again their dynamic is more of 'teen love' so it's understandable. He is the only male around her age on the island, so why she might start liking him is reasonable. But George and Shannon want to marry, so more insight would be nice

For Genji I don't like 'the butler did it' aspect. He's obviously loyal, but from EP 5 I think his loyalties majorly lie in Krauss and Natsuhi more than the others.

Genji's loyalty is an open question because of ep2 where he is a potential murderer yet has no apparent motive for doing so since Krauss and Natsuhi are dead.

I'm not saying there's anything to suspect George. But he's suspect in his unsuspecting nature. Gohda is kind of similar, but we got his notebook TIP that makes him seem like a goofball in an unfortunate situation. Could he turn out to be a killer? I dunno, maybe, but it would seem out of character for him. For George, we really don't know.

I think the Gaap scene in ep4 is meaningful. George is willing to sacrifice everyone else for Shannon. Granted, you can say that was part of a ploy on his part, but do we really know that? While we may not see it as reasonable that George would kill Eva to ensure he can marry Shannon, we also don't know enough about George to know whether or not he'd consider that an option. And George cries a lot. How much of that is real? With some characters, like Battler, we can trust their sincerity based on what else we know. With George, we still really don't.

Again, I suspect him because there's nothing to suspect him over, yet too much saccharine-sweet stuff to remove him from suspicion.

For Genji I don't like 'the butler did it' aspect. He's obviously loyal, but from EP 5 I think his loyalties majorly lie in Krauss and Natsuhi more than the others.

He is completley devoted to the new head of the family...to the master which is Krauss. The same goes for Kanon. If you think about it the Krauss is the new master thing was deeply hinted in the school festival scene. Kanon there thinkgs that he has to report about jessica's behaviour to Natsuhi-sama and the master. I thought it was strange that he doesn't need to report to krauss, but then I just thought that Krauss was just disinterested in his daughter (till that point he didn't show that he cares for his daughter). i think his whole thoughts there were a bit off, I may reread that part again.

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Me personally, I don't like the Shannon/George dynamic, if only because we have no explanation as to why they liked each other so much, excluding the 'magic made them fall in love'. We get a little insight into George's view of the relationship in EP 3, but still nothing as to why they liked each other all the sudden. Jessica/Kanon is the same, but then again their dynamic is more of 'teen love' so it's understandable. He is the only male around her age on the island, so why she might start liking him is reasonable. But George and Shannon want to marry, so more insight would be nice

Well thought after the rejection both Kanon/Jessica didn't had the "teen love" feeling anymore I guess, at least not in the later episodes. In three and four it seemed rather deep but this was in magic scenes.
Well I had the "teen love" thingy feeling for george/Shannon in he beginning were Jessica still teased them. Why Shannon loves him was made cleary svereal times in EP 2 by the way

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Again, I suspect him because there's nothing to suspect him over, yet too much saccharine-sweet stuff to remove him from suspicion.

But if you think about it he had his suspicous moments. In Ep 2 right before they go to the chapel, which was his idea. In Ep 3 the jumping out of the guest house for example