tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16594468.post4535147483370605136..comments2015-02-27T21:26:26.660-07:00Comments on Atheist Ethicist: Kennedy SquareAlonzo Fyfehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05687777216426347054noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16594468.post-91816566633445735422007-05-05T07:04:00.000-06:002007-05-05T07:04:00.000-06:00Addendum:Further Comments from Samuel Lewister.Man...Addendum:<BR/><BR/>Further Comments from Samuel Lewister.<BR/><BR/><I>Many people believed that the money raised from the Kennedy Square auction would be higher than it was.<BR/><BR/>However, one has to remember that there will be more auctions in the future. There is no particlar reason to pay a high price for lunar real-estate now when a cheeper block of land will be available later.<BR/><BR/>Next year, as you well know, the United Nations has authorized the auctioning off of land in and around Shackleton Crater (near the South Pole). This includes 100 hectare (1 square kilometer) 'industrial blocks' for mining and refining.<BR/><BR/>The year after that, they are telling us to prepare for the auction of a small number (we are told, between 20 and 100) near Earth asteroids. Winning bidders here will not own just a percentage of the surface area. They will own the whole asteroid.<BR/><BR/>The year after that, they are looking for a Kennedy Square type auction centered around the Apollo 12 and 14 landing sites. These sites were close enough together that they would fit in the same auction.<BR/><BR/>In the mean time, we are preparing to launch an auction for the next bright comet that comes into view. So, as the comet lights up the sky, you will be invited to consider the fact that you could own that piece of ice, if you have the winning bid.<BR/><BR/>(Note: Naming rights continue to belong to the International Astromonical Union, who will continue the policy of naming comets after their discoverers.)</I>Alonzo Fyfehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05687777216426347054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16594468.post-33612715577774149872007-05-05T06:26:00.000-06:002007-05-05T06:26:00.000-06:00Amarantha.FrancoisI sent your response to Samuel L...<B>Amarantha.Francois</B><BR/><BR/>I sent your response to Samuel Lewister, who responded thusly.<BR/><BR/><I>The distribution curve was highly skewed. The vast majority of buyers simply wanted to own a piece of the moon, and did not care what land they purchased. With 10 minutes left to go, the lowest prices were at $1,100, and over 85% of the available lots were within a couple hundred dollars of this amount.<BR/><BR/>At a few places, the property values went much higher than this. This included Moktke Crater (presumably because it could be seen from Earth), and Cat's Paw (because it is both a clearly identifiable place and near the Apollo 11 landing site). It is such a small fraction of the total available land that it had little impact on total value.<BR/><BR/>Thus, the $1.7 billion is accurate.<BR/><BR/>(Also, note the exclusion of 16,000 hectares of what would have been the most highly priced land on the map - the Apollo 11 landing site and areas near it.)<BR/><BR/>As for the issue of registering a million plots in a month, we actually performed much of that work in advance. We were working on a grid, so that the description of each parcel of land was simple. Participants in the auction had to register, so that we knew who they were before they placed the bid. The final process was simply one of matching bidders to titles. Once we verified that we had received payment, we put their name on the title.<BR/><BR/>This was actually my contribution to the project. I actually lead the task force that put this system together. That's one of the reasons why I was staying up late on the night of the auction, at the office, in case something went wrong.<BR/><BR/>Registering bidders in advance did cut down on the number of bidders, which suppressed price. But, not doing so would have exponentially increased the cost. It is unlikely that the higher price would have covered those higher costs.<BR/><BR/>Registering the titles, of course, was an additional fee, above and beyond the price of the land.<BR/><BR/>Samuel Lewister</I>Alonzo Fyfehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05687777216426347054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16594468.post-32667345274669369932007-05-04T16:35:00.000-06:002007-05-04T16:35:00.000-06:00By 2018? I could only dream.Unrequested criticism:...By 2018? I could only dream.<BR/><BR/>Unrequested criticism: Your numbers don't always add up. The purchase prices probably take the form of a skewed normal curve, or course, with a lot of people buying at the lower prices and fewer and fewer as prices get higher. But with almost a million hectares available, each time prices went up a hundred dollars, the whole fund would go up .1 billion. So with the LOWEST prices at over $2,000, that's well over two billion. If the highest prices at time of sale are $50,000, with a skewed normal curve . . . okay, well, numbers in the trillions of dollars are not improbable. (Which makes me wonder, what if the national debt were a surplus and applied to education? O, the places we'll go . . .)<BR/><BR/>Also - not necessarily a problem, because you didn't specify the size of the registrar - do you know how much it would take to register a million plots in a month? (I'm consistently rounding to do it in my head. To one significant digit, it's accurate.) About thirteen hundred a registered each hour, twenty-four hours a day. Considering all the questions, the difficulty in getting people off phone lines (probably easier than phone tech support, but not by much, and dealing with people who are very excited - although more positive than tech support) you can probably only deal with two or three people a day. There would be a lot of people who bought only one plot. Figuring in ten percent not following up with payment, maybe take five as the average plots per person, and the agency must have . . . hm, only 250 people times three shifts plus support staff. Should probably be a government agency, then.<BR/><BR/><BR/>As you might tell from my volume of words, space colonization gets me excited.Amarantha.Francoisehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05352556221263050952noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16594468.post-17822312492654384402007-05-04T15:05:00.000-06:002007-05-04T15:05:00.000-06:00I am looking forward to the rest of this story. Gr...I am looking forward to the rest of this story. Great intro. Really got me hooked.Martinnoreply@blogger.com