To Erupt or Not to Erupt? That’s the Question.

The head of the subsection for the Volcanic Eruption Mitigation Agency (PVMG), Devy Kamil Syahbana, has explained that based on recorded data, the magma reservoirs below Mount Agung in Bali have not managed to find a outlet on the mountain’s surface.

Quoted by Metrobali.com, Devy said on Monday, October 23,2017, “At this time, the magma is still insufficient to penetrate the surface. There is still a cover that is stronger than the power of the subterranean magma. The magma continues to battle against this protective layer.”

Based on this factor, theoretically there are three possible scenarios regarding the future of Mount Agung. First, said Devy, if there is a new supply of magma the reservoir will be reenergized to continue its journey to the surface. “If this happens,” he said, “then the potential of an eruption in the near term is possible.”

The second possibility, if there is a new supply of magma, but in a small quantity, then the magma will cause more earth tremors, but only on a small and continuing basis. Adding: “In this instance, then the possibility of an eruption in the near future remains small, but the chance of an eruption in the long term will continue.”

The third scenario, Devy outlined is if there is no new supply of magma, then a “de-gassing” process will occur in which gas seeps from the magma reducing its mobility. “In time, the magma will crystallize and when that happens, the chance of an eruption will diminish,” said Devy.

The PVMG is currently evaluating all data from Mount Agung to determine which of the three scenarios apply in the current situation.