tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-288195452018-02-17T21:23:42.223-08:00The Hot Hand in SportsAnalyzing Sports Streakiness with Texas Tech Professor Alan Reifman........................................................................(See twitter.com/alanreifman for more frequent postings)...................................................................................alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.comBlogger678125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-58628493489461850222018-01-07T21:38:00.001-08:002018-01-07T23:20:17.936-08:00Streaks in the City (1): Believeland Or GrievelandHappy New Year!<br /><br />Today, I am introducing a new feature for 2018 on the Hot Hand blog, which I'm calling "Streaks and the City." Each entry will feature a different North American city and discuss famous streaks its teams and athletes have recorded over the years.<br /><br />The first city to be featured is Cleveland, Ohio, a city associated in many people's minds with misfortune such as <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/national/articles/2008/12/15/three-decades-after-cleveland-defaulted-on-its-debts-cities-face-recession-budget-woes">municipal bankruptcy</a>, a <a href="https://clevelandhistorical.org/items/show/63">lake catching on fire</a>, and sports futility. Cleveland sports teams have actually exhibited two types of futility: near misses by pretty good teams when it looked like a title might be within reach, and horrible teams.<br /><br />One example of the latter is this past season's Cleveland Browns football squad, which went 0-16, prompting yesterday's&nbsp;<a href="http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21985114/cleveland-browns-fans-hold-perfect-season-parade-20-mark-team-0-16-season">"perfect season" parade by the stadium</a>.<br /><br />Yet, on a more uplifting note, we had the May 14, 2016 ESPN documentary "<a href="http://www.espn.com/30for30/film?page=Believeland">Believeland</a>," chronicling the efforts of Cleveland's teams to win the city's first championship in any major sport since the Browns in 1964, followed about a month later (June 19, 2016) by LeBron James and the Cavaliers <a href="http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/nba/article84765842.html">bringing the NBA title to Cleveland</a>. Before the Cavs' championship, Cleveland's 52-year title drought (1964-2016) had been the longest active streak of its kind among North American cities. (Milwaukee now tops the leaderboard at 46 years, the Bucks' 1971 NBA title being the city's last in any pro sport.)<br /><br />It can be said about all three of Cleveland's major pro-sports franchises* (and about many other teams outside of Cleveland, as well) that they have experienced a lot of losing, but have periodically had some title-contenders.<br /><br />CAVALIERS<br /><br />The Cavs were part of the NBA's 1970-71 expansion, going 15-67 that first season (<a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CLE/">season-by-season log</a>). If a team's nearly 50-year history can be conveyed in a single sentence, Cleveland has alternated every few years between rock-bottom and being a playoff club. The Cavs improved over their first few years to where they made the postseason three straight years (1975-76 to 1977-78). A nine-year dry spell ensued from 1978-79 to 1986-87, in which the team only made the playoffs once, in 1984-85, with a 36-46 record. Other lowlights during this stretch included another <a href="https://jsportsblogger.wordpress.com/2012/07/08/the-worst-teams-of-all-time-part-2-1981-82-cleveland-cavaliers/">15-67 record in 1981-82</a>, a parade of coaches around this time that included Don Delaney, whose coaching experience included <a href="http://www.cleveland.com/ohio-sports-blog/index.ssf/2011/02/don_delaney_former_cleveland_c.html">pro softball and small-college basketball</a>, and <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/what-is-the-ted-stepien-rule-325791">imposition by the NBA of a rule</a> prohibiting teams from trading away their first-round draft-pick two years in a row, after the Cavs did so to disastrous effect.<br /><br />A productive era followed from 1987-88 to 1997-98, with nine playoff appearances in 11 years. Early on in this timeframe, the Cavs benefited from up-and-coming players such as Brad Daugherty, Mark Price, and Larry Nance. A 57-25 Cleveland squad was ousted in the first round of the 1988-89 playoffs on what's famously known as "The Shot" by the Bulls' Michael Jordan in the deciding game of a 3-out-of-5 series (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5WUOnTxwPw">YouTube video</a>), but the Cavs were unlikely to make the NBA finals that year, anyway, as Detroit was at the peak of its "Bad Boys" dynasty, winning the title in 1989 and 1990.<br /><br />Next came seven straight non-playoff years from 1998-99 to 2004-05. A 17-65 record in 2002-03 put the Cavs in a position to draft a local hero from nearby Akron, LeBron James, out of high school. In James's third season, 2005-06, Cleveland was back in the playoffs, and the next year, 2006-07, the Cavs made their first-ever NBA final, losing to San Antonio. James helped Cleveland win the 2007 Eastern Conference finals by <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2007/06/sports-world-is-abuzz-over-last-nights.html">scoring the team's last 25 points</a> in a key game of that series.<br /><br />After three more successful years in Cleveland -- in terms of win-loss records, but without a return to the NBA finals -- James left after the 2009-10 season, famously "tak[ing] my talents to South Beach" via free-agency, to play for the Miami Heat (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTeCc8jy7FI">YouTube video</a>). While James was making the NBA finals with the Heat each of the next four years and capturing two titles, Cleveland averaged 24 wins per season over the same four years.<br /><br />Almost as stunningly, James returned to Cleveland via free agency for the 2014-15 season. In his three complete seasons back in Ohio, the Cavs have made the NBA finals every year (always against the Golden State Warriors), winning in 2016, but losing in 2015 and 2017.<br /><br />Now, at age 33, James is still <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lebron-is-still-getting-better/">going strong</a>. Earlier in the current 2017-18 season, he led the Cavs to a franchise-record-tying <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/recap/_/id/400975104">13-game winning streak</a>. James can't play forever and when he either retires or leaves for another team, the Cavs will probably go through a multiple-year slump, if past is indeed prologue.<br /><br />INDIANS<br /><br />Among MLB franchises that have won the World Series at least once -- which Cleveland did in 1948 and 1920 -- the Indians hold the <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/longest-world-series-droughts-teams-cleveland-indians-houston-astros">longest currently active drought</a>, 69 straight years, without a World Series title.<br /><br />Still the Indians have been excellent in recent years -- even record-setting in a good way -- narrowly missing a World Series title in 2016 and compiling an American League-record** <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/here-are-22-stats-and-facts-about-the-indians-record-22-game-winning-streak/">22-game winning streak</a> in 2017. During the latter, a new hashtag appeared on Twitter celebrating the streak: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Windians?src=hash">#windians</a>. A run to a slump-ending World Series win seemed likely, especially after Cleveland took a 2-0 lead in games over the Yankees in a 3-out-of-5 series. But then, days later, it was over, as New York went on a three-game winning streak.<br /><br />A look at the Indians' <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/">season-by-season log</a>&nbsp;shows that, in the 11 years following the 1948 championship (1949-1959), Cleveland finished above .500 -- sometimes well above it -- 10 times. This stretch included a 111-43 record in 1954, en route to the World Series, which Cleveland lost to the New York Giants. However, in the 34 years from 1960-1993, the Indians reached or exceeded .500 only seven times.<br /><br />Things have turned around in the 24 following years (1994-2017), with 16 .500-or-better seasons and three World Series appearances. These occurred in 1995 (a six-game loss to the Braves), 1997 (a seven-game loss to the Marlins, in which the Indians <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/lebron-james-calls-out-jose-mesa-for-blown-save-in-game-7-of-1997-world-series/">couldn't hold a one-run lead</a> in the bottom of the ninth in Game 7) and 2016 (a seven-game loss to the Cubs).<br /><br />As good as the Indians have been the last two seasons, it will probably take a drought-ending World Series title to really earn the moniker Windians in many fans' view.<br /><br />BROWNS<br /><br />A team named the Cleveland Browns has never appeared in a Super Bowl, the pro-football championship game that launched on <a href="http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/packers-beat-chiefs-in-first-super-bowl">January 15, 1967</a>. However, a team that once was the Cleveland Browns has not only made it to, but also won, a Super Bowl. The explanation, of course, is that then-Browns owner Art Modell moved the team to Baltimore after the 1995 season (becoming the Ravens) and the Ravens won the Super after the 2000 season. In some ways, however, the connection between the 1995 Browns and 2000 Ravens is not that strong, as <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2001/jan/20/sports/sp-14757">only two players were on both squads</a>. The Ravens <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/">also won the Super Bowl</a> after the 2012 season.<br /><br />Prior to the 1995 move, the Browns, like the Cavaliers and Indians, enjoyed some sporadic success. Cleveland made five straight NFL playoff appearances from 1985-1989, with particularly devastating postseason losses occurring in 1985, 1987, and 1988. These are summarized <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/316250-history-of-cleveland-sports">here</a>.<br /><br />After the Modell move, the NFL granted Cleveland a replacement franchise, also to be known as the Browns, which would begin play in 1999. The "new" Browns have made the playoffs only once (in 2002) in <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/cle/">their 19 years of existence</a>, and have gone a combined 1-31 in 2016 and '17. Since 1999, the Browns have had <a href="http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21699936/cleveland-browns-fire-personnel-czar-sashi-brown">eight general managers and nine head coaches</a>.<br /><br />Some may cite the "Cleveland Curse" for the misfortunes of the new Browns. However, as argued by <i>Cleveland Plain-Dealer</i> columnist and <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Terry-Pluto/e/B000AP7UVC/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1515384637&amp;sr=1-1">prolific book author</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/terrypluto">Terry Pluto</a>, in <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/False-Start-Browns-Were-Fail/dp/1886228884/ref=la_B000AP7UVC_1_3?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1515384671&amp;sr=1-3">False Start: How the New Browns Were Set Up to Fail</a></i>, structural barriers imposed by the NFL are to blame. The team faced a compressed start-up time, a weakened expansion draft, and other hindrances, which they still haven't overcome, approaching 20 years.<br /><br />CONCLUSION<br /><br />Cleveland has had a lot of streaks in the last roughly 70 years, most of them involving losing and droughts. The city has had some nice within-season winning streaks (such as the 2017 Indians), but in our championship-minded society, mere winning streaks aren't enough. I would expect continued shuffling between Believeland and Grieveland in the coming years, with more time spent in the latter. I don't know how much more time remains in the LeBron-led Cavaliers' championship window, especially with the Warriors being so good. The Indians should be good for a while, but the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, and others aren't going anywhere. That leaves the Browns...<br /><br />If the city's teams all start struggling around the same time, it will not be good for the health of Clevelanders. The 2013 (pre-Cavs' title) book <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Secret-Lives-Sports-Fans/dp/1590208641/">The Secret Lives of Sports Fans</a></i>, by Eric Simons, devotes an entire chapter to Cleveland. One former resident of the city suggests that "the miserable winter weather and the lack of other [cultural, entertainment, or recreational] options" have driven Clevelanders toward an intense fandom of sports (p. 101). Another transplant from Cleveland says, "There is a bitterness, a frustration with Cleveland that cannot be matched anywhere else"&nbsp; (p. 100).<br /><br />---<br /><br />*The city had an NHL team, the Cleveland Barons, in the 1970s, but it went <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/news/lost-franchises-remembering-the-nhls-cleveland-barons/">defunct after only two seasons</a>.<br /><br />**The MLB-record winning streak is usually credited at 26, by the 1916 New York Giants. However, a tie in a darkness-shortened game has led to a <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/09/15/cleveland-indians-new-york-giants-winning-streak">controversy over the Giants' streak</a>.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-51103554205419886772017-06-09T13:48:00.002-07:002017-06-09T13:52:12.426-07:00Major ESPN.com Article on Three-Pt Shooting Hot HandToday on ESPN.com, there's a <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/presents-19573519">big article</a> on hot-hand research. The article is written primarily through the lens of Klay Thompson and his deep-launching Golden State Warriors teammates, but also discusses the 2015 research of Joshua Miller and Adam Sanjurjo, claiming a "substantial" hot-hand effect in the NBA All-Star three-point shooting contest.<br /><br />In addition, Tom Gilovich, lead author on the 1985 study claiming no support for a hot hand, shares his thoughts in the ESPN article on how the Miller-Sanjurjo research may (or may not) have revolutionized how we should think about hot-hand effects. Gilovich, a longtime Cornell University psychology professor, notes that he has shared the Miller-Sanjurjo research with some Cornell mathematicians and that, "People with tremendous math skills are all over the map on this one."<br /><br />My own take on the Miller-Sanjurjo research, from back in 2015, is available <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2015/08/new-study-of-nba-three-point-contest.html">here</a>. Be sure to see Miller's comments on my piece and my reply.<br /><br />One side note on today's ESPN.com article is that, where author Tom Haberstroh alludes to the fact that, "The legendary Bobby Knight wasn't a fan of the so-called fallacy [claimed by Gilovich and colleagues], either," the embedded hyperlink leads to my book!<br /><br />***<br /><br />As I note at the top of the blog, nearly all of my recent tracking of sports streaks has taken place via my <a href="https://twitter.com/alanreifman">Twitter feed</a>, rather than this blog. My last blog posting before today, in fact, was all the way back on February 13. Just to update things, here are a couple of prominent hot-hand developments of the past four months:<br /><ul><li>As virtually all readers of this blog would know, the UConn women's basketball team had its latest gargantuan winning streak, one that had reached 111 games, <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2700711-uconns-111-game-win-streak-ends-with-ot-buzzer-beater-loss-to-mississippi-state">snapped in the Final Four</a> national semifinals by Mississippi State. Shortly afterward, I tweeted a <a href="https://twitter.com/AlanReifman/status/848661469197717506">graphic I created</a> to show how Mississippi State milked the shot-clock to shorten the game against UConn.</li><li>Back in April, Guy Molyneux wrote in to Andrew Gelman's blog, <a href="http://andrewgelman.com/2017/04/10/33539/">arguing that</a>, "the hot hand likely has a negligible impact on game outcomes." In the comments section below Molyneux's piece, Miller and several other discussants debate the argument.</li></ul>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-12851192840650853492017-02-13T11:20:00.001-08:002017-03-08T07:53:32.038-08:00UConn Women Go for 100 Straight WinsThe University of Connecticut women's basketball team goes for its 100th straight win tonight, hosting South Carolina in a nonconference match-up. The 100-game mark seems mainly about symbolism, as the Huskies have already had a <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2010/12/its-over-after-surpassing-1970s-mens.html">90-game</a>&nbsp;winning streak (snapped in 2010) and a <a href="http://www.villanova.com/sports/w-baskbl/recaps/031103aaa.html">70-game</a>&nbsp;victory stretch (ended in 2003). The John Wooden-coached UCLA men's basketball program pulled off an 88-game winning streak, which ended in 1974.<br /><br />The following chart shows UConn's margin of victory in its last 99 games (arranged chronologically from left to right). Exact margins are shown up to 40 points, but if the Huskies won by more than 40, there's just a "&gt;40" box on top. You can click on the graphic to enlarge it.<br /><br />UConn <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_East_Conference_(1979%E2%80%932013)">used to be in the Big East</a>, along with, at various times, such top women's hoop programs as Villanova, Notre Dame, and Louisville. However, after the big <a href="http://conferencerealignment.blogspot.com/2013/04/resolution-of-big-east-break-up-into.html">conference-realignment shake-out</a> of the 2010s, the Huskies ended up in the American Athletic Conference (AAC), which at the moment doesn't have any real competitors for UConn.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b>UConn Margin of Victory in Last 99 Games</b></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1iUyPmjVKGw/WKH9FzeXDGI/AAAAAAAADpY/3EbafIhogZw2DsUUeT49gTPN4KC3WxEFwCLcB/s1600/uconn%2Bcloses%2Bin%2Bon%2B100.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1iUyPmjVKGw/WKH9FzeXDGI/AAAAAAAADpY/3EbafIhogZw2DsUUeT49gTPN4KC3WxEFwCLcB/s400/uconn%2Bcloses%2Bin%2Bon%2B100.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />As seen in the light-blue columns above, UConn has won every AAC game (regular-season and conference-tournament), except two, by 20 or more points (games 51 and 31<a href="http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18452652/examining-every-victory-connecticut-huskies-ncaa-record-winning-streak"> in this list</a>). The Huskies have won nearly 40 AAC games by 40 or more points. (Game 86, vs. Nebraska, has a typo; it should be 84-41.)<br /><br />The royal-blue columns represent nonconference games (both in the regular season and in the NCAA tournament). To UConn's credit, it schedules many games against elite nonconference opposition, including Tennessee (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connecticut%E2%80%93Tennessee_rivalry">until 2007</a>), Notre Dame, Duke, Baylor, Maryland, Florida State, and tonight's opponent, <a href="http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-womens-basketball/hc-uconn-women-basketball-0213-20170212-story.html">South Carolina</a>&nbsp;(curently ranked No. 6 in the nation). As can be seen, the heights of the royal-blue bars are much lower than the light-blue ones. In fact, twice this season UConn won by two and six points, against <a href="http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-womens-basketball/hc-uconn-women-basketball-1115-20161114-story.html">Florida State</a> and <a href="http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-women/article/2016-12-29/uconn-maryland-recap-no-1-huskies-win-87th-straight-against">Maryland</a>, respectively.<br /><br />The early 1970s UCLA men had a lot more close calls during its 88-game winning streak. According to this <a href="http://www.dailynews.com/article/ZZ/20101219/NEWS/101218311">retrospective article</a>, “Two games were one-point victories. Three more were by two points.” Another 11 wins by 4-9 points. Of course, the college game had neither a shot-clock nor a three-point shot at that time, Teams could hold the ball on UCLA and the lack of a three would have kept the scoring down.*<br /><br /><div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; unicode-bidi: embed; word-break: normal;">I would think UConn would be a heavy favorite tonight, but if there's any chance for the game to be competitive, having a strong nonconference opponent makes it more likely.<br /><br />---<br />*The information on the UCLA men's streak was added later.</div>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-28437210614628548262017-01-05T14:37:00.002-08:002017-01-05T21:17:16.847-08:00Columbus Blue Jackets Seek to Tie NHL Record for Longest Winning StreakTonight, in the nation's capital, the Columbus Blue Jackets will <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/columbus-blue-jackets-tie-nhl-record-17th-win-44557007">try to tie the NHL record</a> of 17 straight wins, held by the <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/columbus-closing-history-look-longest-nhl-winning-streaks/">1992-93 Pittsburgh Penguins</a>. Here's a <a href="http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/18405772/nhl-how-columbus-blue-jackets-winning-streak-happened">chronicle</a> of how the team's 16 wins have unfolded. Many articles have appeared on the Blue Jackets' streak, from analytic (<a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/in-praise-of-the-columbus-blue-jackets-what-we-learned-150821667.html">here</a>, <a href="http://thesportsdaily.com/buckeye-state-hockey/on-the-blue-jackets-streak-and-unsustainability/">here</a>, and <a href="http://www.jacketscannon.com/2016/12/17/13990762/the-blue-jackets-are-good-not-lucky-or-doomed-metropolitan-playoffs-statistics-rebuttal">here</a>), and even <a href="https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/12/27/how-good-is-columbus-a-bayesian-approach/#more-14342">Bayesian statistical</a> perspectives. I was interviewed in this <i>SB Nation</i>&nbsp;<a href="http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2017/1/1/14137708/columbus-blue-jackets-win-streak-nhl-record-minnesota-wild-calvert-dumba-stewart-anderson-fight">article</a>.<br /><br />Two main issues stand out to me. One, which the <i>SB Nation</i> writer discussed with me but didn't make it into the article, is the likelihood of a team with the Blue Jackets', shall we say, non-illustrious history going on such a long winning streak. As I wrote in my book <i>Hot Hand</i>, "many of the most famous streaks... have been compiled by athletes and teams who are among the all-time greats in their respective sports" (p. 5). Examples cited include Kobe Bryant, Joe DiMaggio, and Tiger Woods. As the late Harvard paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/articles/1988/08/18/the-streak-of-streaks/">once wrote</a>, "Long streaks always are, and must be, a matter of extraordinary luck imposed upon great skill."<br /><br />The Blue Jackets hardly seem to be the kind of winning franchise, upon which only a little luck would have to be added to produce a long string of victories. Columbus has made only <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/CBJ/">two playoff appearances in the 16 years</a> of franchise history, most recently in 2013-14. At the risk of overstatement, a Blue Jackets' winning streak would be like hearing that a run of 50 consecutive made free throws belonged to Shaq O'Neal rather than Steph Curry.*<br /><br />The second issue, pertaining to on-the-rink statistics, involves shots on goal. Because goals are rare in hockey, analysts typically focus instead on teams' shot-on-goal totals, which turn out to be a good measure of puck possession (see the new book <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Hockey-Abstract-Presents-Stat-Shot/dp/177041309X/">Stat Shot: The Ultimate Guide to Hockey Analytics</a></i>, by Rob Vollman and colleagues, for further discussion).<br /><br />As shown <a href="http://thesportsdaily.com/buckeye-state-hockey/on-the-blue-jackets-streak-and-unsustainability/">here</a>, in games before the streak, Columbus and its opponents were each taking roughly 50% of the shots (see the columns marked Corsi, Fenwick, and Shots For). During the streak, in contrast, the Blue Jackets have around 54% of the shots in their games and their opponents, 46%. Aggregate shot totals can be misleading, however, because of <i>score effects</i>, the phenomenon of a trailing team bombarding the opposing net with desperation shots in an attempt to get back in the game.<br /><br />I created the following graphic to take game context into account. Using a puck image for each game during the Columbus winning streak, I plotted the Blue Jackets' deficit or lead on the scoreboard on the <i>x</i>-axis (from losing by 2 to winning by 4). On the&nbsp;<i>y</i>-axis, we see differences between the Blue Jackets' and opponents' actual numbers of third-period shots (which may be more intuitive to grasp&nbsp;than the percentage of total shots attributable to each team). The puck in the upper-left corner of the graph, for example, represents the Blue Jackets' <a href="http://www.espn.com/nhl/recap/_/gameId/400884764">December 3 game at Arizona</a>, the third game in Columbus's streak. The Jackets trailed 2-1 after two periods (the only game during the streak in which they entered the third period trailing), but in a feverish attempt to tie the game (which Columbus did with 2:16 remaining), outshot the Coyotes 23-4 in the third (+19). Columbus eventually won 3-2 via shootout.<br /><br />If a game is close (i.e., tied or within one goal either way) heading into the third period, we should find Columbus dominating the shots-on-goal totals in the third period during the winning streak. If the Blue Jackets are relatively comfortably ahead, on the other hand, we would expect their opponents to be dominating the shots. This is exactly what we find.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bgitahjMAkg/WG6XoZRn-ZI/AAAAAAAADn0/aEFKKGhjRUgN8Rl-ca02J1_oDXwCC1HswCLcB/s1600/blue%2Bjackets%2Bshots%2Bon%2Bgoal.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bgitahjMAkg/WG6XoZRn-ZI/AAAAAAAADn0/aEFKKGhjRUgN8Rl-ca02J1_oDXwCC1HswCLcB/s400/blue%2Bjackets%2Bshots%2Bon%2Bgoal.jpg" width="388" /></a></div><br />For those with some statistical training, the correlation between size of Columbus's lead on the scoreboard (with a deficit scored with a negative sign) and their edge or deficit in third-period shots was a statistically significant (<i>r</i> = -.58; see blade of the hockey stick in the graphic). The less favorable the Blue Jackets' situation after two periods (trailing or tied), the more they outshot their opponents.<br /><br />So, if you're a Blue Jackets fan or simply like to see long streaks, don't worry if Columbus is not leading after the second period. In that event, a Blue Jacket barrage on the Capitals' net seems almost certain!<br /><br /><b><span style="color: red;">UPDATE:</span></b> It was not to be for the Blue Jackets, as the Washington Capitals <a href="http://www.espn.com/nhl/recap?gameId=400884975">routed them 5-0</a>, ending Columbus's winning streak at 16 games.<br /><br /><div class="MsoNormal">---<br />*That's not to say that amazing turnarounds don't occur. Baseball's Atlanta Braves went from a 65-97 record in 1990 to <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/">14 straight divisional titles</a> (excluding the incomplete, strike-shortened 1994 season). Also, football's San Francisco 49ers went <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/">2-14 and 6-10 under Bill Walsh</a> in 1979 and 1980, respectively, before winning the Super Bowl after the 1981 season. The team would win three more Super Bowls in the decade.</div>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-46527225120414154632016-11-24T13:56:00.002-08:002016-11-24T13:56:51.827-08:00Gotta "Love" It -- 34 Points, 8-of-10 on Treys, in First Quarter AloneAs most NBA fans have probably heard by now, the Cleveland Cavaliers' Kevin Love scored <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/18125127">34 points in the first quarter</a> last night in leading his team to a 137-125 victory over visiting Portland. It was a record for most points in the <i>first</i> quarter, but not for any quarter.<br /><br />Golden State's Klay Thompson once scored 37 points in the third quarter of a game. Although Love's single-quarter point total last night (34) approached Thompson's record, Thompson's is truly one of a kind, in my view, for another reason. Whereas Love missed a few shots last night in the first quarter, going 3-of-4 on two-point attempts, 8-of-10 on shots from behind the arc, and 4-of-4 on free-throws, Thompson&nbsp;<a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2015/01/greatest-shooting-quarter-in-nba.html">didn't miss a single shot</a>&nbsp;of any kind in his big quarter.<br /><br />Love's 8-of-10 performance on first-quarter threes is nothing to sneeze at, however, and it is the aspect of his record night that I'd like to focus on. Love is a <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/3449/kevin-love">career .363 three-point shooter</a> in a little over eight years in the NBA and his season-specific three-point shooting-percentages have been very consistent in recent years (.376 in 2013-14; .367 in 2014-15; .360 in 2015-16). Thus far in the <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3449/kevin-love">current season</a>, before last night's game, Love was hitting on .316 (18-of-57) of his treys.<br /><br />Using Love's career .363 baseline success-rate, we can ask what is the probability that he would make 8 (or more) three-pointers in a 10-attempt sequence. Using a <a href="http://vassarstats.net/binomialX.html">binomial calculator</a>, the answer is .006 or 6-in-1,000.<br /><br />In one sense, Love's scoring outburst might be considered more impressive than Thompson's. Compared to Thompson's .417 career NBA three-point shooting-percentage (and .444 for the season coming into his record-setting game), Love's career and season-to-date baseline success-rates were several percentage-points lower. It is, of course, harder for someone with a lower baseline success-rate to enter a stretch of hitting at a torrid pace.<br /><br />Love scored only 6 more points after the first quarter last night, finishing with 40. Cleveland led comfortably for most of the game, entering the fourth quarter up 112-92, so was able to rest its starters.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-8814604277730393722016-08-04T19:05:00.001-07:002016-08-04T19:12:27.397-07:00Michael Phelps Looks to Extend Olympic-Gold StreaksWith the opening ceremonies for the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics getting underway tomorrow, swimming enthusiasts are anticipating whether -- and to what degree -- Michael Phelps will be able to extend his career-total medal haul. He currently owns 22 Olympic medals, 18 gold, 2 silver, and 2 bronze.<br /><br />In terms of Olympic streaks, Phelps has ongoing runs of three straight golds in the 100-meter butterfly and the 200-meter individual medley. He will attempt to extend each of these streaks to four in a row. Before Phelps won the two aforementioned events in 2012, <a href="https://swimswam.com/michael-phelps-becomes-first-to-win-three-straight-titles/">no male swimmer had won the same event</a> at more than two straight Olympiad. &nbsp;He will swim a third individual event in Rio, namely the 200 butterfly, in which he <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oly-swim-swm2bu-idUSBRE86U1CZ20120731">narrowly missed</a> a third straight gold in 2012.<br /><br />The following chart (which you can click to enlarge) shows Phelps's medal performances not just at the past three Olympiad, but also at the World Championships and Pan-Pacific Championships. The chart includes only the three individual events he will swim in Rio. Phelps did not compete in 2013 due to his brief retirement, plus USA Swimming <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2014/10/06/michael-phelps-banned-for-6-months-and-2015-fina-world-championships-by-usa-swimming/">kept him off the team</a> for the 2015 Worlds for his drunk-driving offenses.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rf1x83bq-8U/V6PeAf5nBiI/AAAAAAAADjA/ZweikW_9JCMaCT8dg-dbjuMg72LGg4zdgCLcB/s1600/phelps%2Bheading%2Binto%2B2016%2BOG.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="140" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rf1x83bq-8U/V6PeAf5nBiI/AAAAAAAADjA/ZweikW_9JCMaCT8dg-dbjuMg72LGg4zdgCLcB/s400/phelps%2Bheading%2Binto%2B2016%2BOG.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><i>Sports Illustrated</i>'s pre-Olympic issue picks Phelps to win one gold -- in the 100-meter butterfly, just ahead of Hungary's Laszlo Cseh. Within 2016, Cseh (50.86) has actually swum this race faster than Phelps (51.00), but we don't know that all circumstances (e.g., amount of rest; pool conditions) were comparable. (You can look up the world rankings in any event, based on fastest times, at the <a href="http://www.fina.org/content/swimming-world-ranking">international federation's website</a>.)&nbsp;<i>SI</i> tabs Cseh over Phelps in the 200 fly, and Japan's Kosuke Hagino over Phelps in the 200 IM.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-79495112492879117952016-07-15T00:26:00.002-07:002016-07-15T00:27:17.852-07:00What’s Up (Or In This Case, Down) With the Cubs?Perhaps it’s the Cubs’ historical futility – <a href="http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/chicago-cubs-maddon-epstein-curse/">anyone can have an off-century</a>, paraphrasing former manager Tom Trebelhorn. Or perhaps it’s the reputations of current team executive Theo Epstein and manager Joe Maddon. Whatever the reason, the team’s fast start this season inspired no shortage of superlatives from the media.<br /><br />On May 15, with the Cubs sitting at 27-9, CBS Sports.com <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/14-things-to-know-about-the-chicago-cubs-hot-and-historical-start-to-the-season/">splashed around words</a> such as “historic,” “remarkable,” and “incredible” in describing the team’s start.<br /><br />On June 7, with the Cubs having advanced their record to 40-16 the night before, FiveThirtyEight made the <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/this-years-cubs-might-be-better-than-the-incredible-27-yankees/">stunning comparison</a> of Maddon’s bunch to the 1927 Yankees.<br /><br />Now, as the season resumes Friday after the All-Star Break, the Northsiders are 53-35. The team’s record has been 26-26 since the CBS Sports article and 13-19 since FiveThirtyEight’s piece.<br /><br />The Cubs’ slide began on June 20, the opening day of a three-game Wrigley Field series with St. Louis, which the Cardinals swept. Chicago has now lost five of its last six series (plus a one-game make-up game with Atlanta). Using the <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/chc">Cubs’ game-by-game log</a>, I plotted the results of all of their series so far this season, in chronological order. Opponents are shown on the horizontal axis and the outcome of each series is shown on the vertical axis (sweeping a three-game series would be +3, getting swept four would be -4, etc.; see legend below the graph). You may click on the graphics to enlarge them.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Jdz-QDVlrz8/V4iPlG1kwBI/AAAAAAAADhs/oJYg7HhNDu0s7KxYkvBHx1brTFMLCb9RgCLcB/s1600/cubs%2B1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="286" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Jdz-QDVlrz8/V4iPlG1kwBI/AAAAAAAADhs/oJYg7HhNDu0s7KxYkvBHx1brTFMLCb9RgCLcB/s400/cubs%2B1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><i>[Legend: On the vertical axis, +4, +3, -3, and -4 represent sweeps of 4- or 3-game series; +2 or -2 can result from sweeps of 2-game series or winning or losing 3 in a 4-game series; 0 = split of 2- or 4-game series. The number of games in a series is shown in parentheses after the opponent’s name on the horizontal axis. Asterisk (*) indicates series with 1-game rain postponement until later in season.]</i> ___________________________________________________________________________<br /><br />Presumably, the Cubs have declined in one or more of the following areas: hitting, pitching, and defense. Hitting does not seem to be the major problem. The team’s two leaders in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging percentages), Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, have maintained a torrid pace. In fact, Rizzo’s two best monthly OPS figures have come in June (1.211) and July (1.178). The same is true for Bryant (June, 1.058; July, 1.222). Addison Russell and Jason Heyward have been steady, if unspectacular, with monthly OPS values in the .700-.800 range of late. That’s not to say that nobody has slumped. Dexter Fowler’s OPS in April, May, and June fell respectively from 1.087 to .879 to .605, and Ben Zobrist has fallen to an OPS of .707 in June and .640 in July, after he had attained a 1.136 in May. Still, there is no universal collapse in hitting among the Cubs.<br /><br />To evaluate starting pitchers’ individual outings, I use the “game score” statistic developed by Bill James. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_score">scoring system</a> starts a pitcher out with 50 points, then adds points for good pitcher outcomes (e.g., 1 point for each out, plus an additional point for a strikeout) and subtracts points for bad outcomes (-2 for each hit allowed, -4 for each earned-run yielded). Game scores for each and every start by a given pitcher are included among ESPN.com’s pitching statistics. I have plotted game scores for each of the Cubs’ five regular starters, shown in chronological order.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UpcGpG6A5-8/V4iPlP0DjxI/AAAAAAAADhw/2TYmgTAwAaIzwAMtbTp2Zj_9AMMRMWwIwCEw/s1600/cubs%2B2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="276" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UpcGpG6A5-8/V4iPlP0DjxI/AAAAAAAADhw/2TYmgTAwAaIzwAMtbTp2Zj_9AMMRMWwIwCEw/s400/cubs%2B2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />Although the data are noisy, the general trend is that Cubs starters – four of whom are age 30 and older – began declining around their 15th starts. Before that, most outings were in the 50-80 range (highlighted in gray), meaning that pitchers made a net gain in points above the 50 with which they automatically started.<br /><br />John Lackey recorded a 23 in his 15th start (a 9-6 Cubs loss at Miami), Jason Hammel struggled badly with a 5 in his 16th start (a 10-2 loss at the Mets), and Jon Lester also registered a 5; this came in his 17th start, another blow-out loss (14-3) at Citi Field. Jake Arrieta, though not hitting the low points of some of his teammates, has thrown clearly subpar games in his last three starts (game scores of 38, 38, and 35). Kyle Hendricks has been the even-keel starter, never deviating from a range of 41-80.<br /><br />According to another <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-cubs-pitchers-are-making-their-own-luck/">FiveThirtyEight article</a>, as of June 19 (right before the Cubs’ spate of losing series), Chicago pitchers appeared to be benefiting from two developments: their “contact-management skills” or “tendency to allow batted balls that do less damage;” and excellent defensive play from the fielders. Getting into the physics of batted balls, “Cubs pitchers [had] depressed exit velocity by 0.4 miles per hour and launch angle by almost 2 degrees, relative to average.” In terms of fielding, free-agent acquisition Heyward has <a href="http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/all-star-game-defensive-josh-donaldson-salvador-perez-paul-goldschmidt-nolan-arenado/1twus5evmnrsy1kn9ln5kj310o">saved 35 runs</a> with his defense in 2015 and 2016 combined, according to one estimate, which is one of the best performances for an outfielder during this time.<br /><br />One would guess Cub pitchers lately were allowing balls to leave opposing bats with greater exit velocity and launch angle, although I do not have updated statistics on those parameters. The Cubs <a href="http://www.pressherald.com/2016/07/10/major-league-notebook-cubs-ready-for-rest/">need some rest</a>, according to Maddon. That’s as good a recommendation as any, especially for the starting pitchers. alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-26536549873979242462016-07-09T08:56:00.001-07:002016-07-09T09:35:30.270-07:00Serena Williams Just Keeps Winning Grand Slam TitlesSerena Williams continues to defy the age curve, <a href="http://espn.go.com/tennis/wimbledon16/story/_/id/16922072/2016-wimbledon-serena-williams-wins-22nd-grand-slam-title-tie-steffi-graf-open-era-record">winning the Wimbledon women's singles title</a> earlier today. At 34 years old (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serena_Williams">born September 26, 1981</a>), Williams is now the oldest player, woman or man, to win a Wimbledon singles championship, <a href="http://www.sportskeeda.com/tennis/five-of-the-oldest-wimbledon-singles-champions/5">overtaking Martina Navratilova</a> (33 years, 8 months when she captured her final title in 1990). Accordingly, I have updated the age chart of women's tennis greats that I have displayed on this site from time to time.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YJje-PA8AMs/V4Eeshc6MlI/AAAAAAAADhc/zW7YSro40E8DyejGMJWU_WO2Wb3I0Zd7ACLcB/s1600/womens%2Btennis%2Bage%2Bchart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="350" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YJje-PA8AMs/V4Eeshc6MlI/AAAAAAAADhc/zW7YSro40E8DyejGMJWU_WO2Wb3I0Zd7ACLcB/s400/womens%2Btennis%2Bage%2Bchart.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-36241336638856462912016-04-17T15:52:00.000-07:002016-04-17T15:54:43.846-07:00Obscure Baseball-Card Find: Walt Dropo, Co-Record Holder for Hits in Consecutive At-Bats (12)As I wrote about in my book <i>Hot Hand</i>, maintaining some types of streaks is more pressure-packed than maintaining others. In baseball, a streak of getting at least one hit per game, while not an easy task, still allows a batter to make one or more outs per game and still potentially preserve the streak. A streak of getting hits in numerous consecutive <i>at-bats</i>, on the other hand, has no margin for error. You make an out and the streak is over.<br /><br />As I further noted in the book (page 5), the Major League record for most consecutive at-bats getting a hit each time is 12, co-held by Mike "Pinky" Higgins (1938) and Walt Dropo (1952). Think of that: 12 straight hits without making an out! (Because walks and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/At_bat">certain other outcomes</a> do not count as official at-bats, players could have walked during their streaks.)<br /><br />Shortly after my book came out, Trent McCotter, a leading authority on baseball records and old-time hitting streaks, e-mailed me that, "You can also add Johnny Kling, 1902, to that list [with Higgins and Dropo]. I discovered it a few years back." Trent informed me that the famous Elias Sports Bureau accepted this change, and indeed, <a href="http://www.esb.com/cms/assets/ebbr-2013-sample.pdf">recent versions of the Elias record book</a> list Kling with Higgins and Dropo.<br /><br />I saved Trent's message for the next time I wrote about hit streaks in consecutive at-bats, not exactly knowing when that might be. A few months ago, the topic returned, and I have waited until the start of the new baseball season to write about it.<br /><br />While browsing in a used <a href="https://www.facebook.com/Ralphs-Records-357424497546/">record/CD/DVD store</a>, which also had a small section on baseball cards, I came upon a Walt Dropo card, which I promptly purchased. (You may click on the following photo to enlarge it.)<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HHRy_nK3IWc/VxQMQrwQsYI/AAAAAAAADbU/qcdwfzAWmCAe31XuuGcFWlFKk5NQmkM-wCLcB/s1600/dropo2.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="287" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HHRy_nK3IWc/VxQMQrwQsYI/AAAAAAAADbU/qcdwfzAWmCAe31XuuGcFWlFKk5NQmkM-wCLcB/s400/dropo2.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br />Though Dropo's big league career lasted from <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dropowa01.shtml">1949-1961</a>, the card was issued in 1990, as part of the <a href="http://baseballcardpedia.com/index.php/1990_Swell_Baseball_Greats">"Swell" Baseball Greats retrospective series</a>.<br /><br />The most recent threat to Kling, Higgins, and Dropo's mark that I could find was a stretch in 2002 by the Yankees' Bernie Williams, during which he produced hits in <a href="http://amarillo.com/stories/2002/08/18/spo_sp081802-4.shtml#.VxQRnjArIfI">11 consecutive at-bats</a>.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-58969069978716595432016-04-09T15:05:00.001-07:002016-04-10T12:56:25.686-07:00Here's the Story, of a Man Named... StoryAs of a few days ago, I had never heard of <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32150/trevor-story">Trevor Story</a>, a 23-year-old rookie shortstop for the Colorado Rockies. With so much else going on in the sports world such as March Madness, the Masters, and the Warriors' quest for 73 wins, I just wasn't following the start of the MLB season that closely.<br /><br />Something has happened in the young baseball season, however, to make a streaks aficionado such as myself take notice. Namely, Story hit two home runs last Monday in his first-ever major-league game and he's maintained a streak of homering at least once in all four of the Rockies' games! I've created the following chart (which you can click to enlarge) to document all of Story's plate-appearances so far this season. (Each game appears on a new line. The numbers after ground-outs [G] and fly-outs [F] are standard <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baseball_positions">fielding position numbers</a> and other abbreviations are explained at the bottom of the chart.)<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JgqqyJplexM/Vwl23pknwdI/AAAAAAAADbE/sIP5HE5CHBUjxspaw7We98prshzdOMFqw/s1600/trevor%2Bstory%2Bhr%2Bburst.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="138" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JgqqyJplexM/Vwl23pknwdI/AAAAAAAADbE/sIP5HE5CHBUjxspaw7We98prshzdOMFqw/s400/trevor%2Bstory%2Bhr%2Bburst.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />As this <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=360408127">article from last night's game</a> documents, "Story became the first major leaguer to homer in each of his first four games."<br /><br />Another <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2016/04/09/trevor-story-what-you-need-know-rockies-breakout-performer/82828540/">article</a> notes that, even throwing non-rookies into the mix, Story is just the "[f]ifth player to homer in four straight games to start a season, joining Baltimore Orioles' Chris Davis (2013), Texas' Nelson Cruz (2011), St. Louis' Mark McGwire (1998) and San Francisco's Willie Mays (1971)." Pretty good company!<br /><br />As the above chart reveals, Story has entered the big leagues as a free-swinger. He has no walks in his first 19 plate appearances. In addition to his six home runs, he has four strikeouts (three swinging), seven fly-outs (which includes line-drives), one ground-out, and one single.<br /><br />The Rockies host the Padres again tonight, with the Colorado rookie trying to homer in his fifth straight game. We'll continue to follow the story...<br /><br /><b>UPDATE -- <span style="color: purple;">END OF STORY:</span></b> No home run for Story on Saturday night, <a href="http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/colorado-rockies-trevor-story-sees-hr-streak-end-in-loss-to-sd-padres-040916">ending his streak</a>.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-50819299643690224642016-04-01T14:29:00.000-07:002016-04-01T14:34:40.687-07:00Has Buddy Hield Regained His Yield?With the men's NCAA basketball Final Four getting underway tomorrow, the player getting the most attention is Oklahoma's Buddy Hield. His Sooner squad will face Villanova, with North Carolina and Syracuse meeting in the other semifinal.<br /><br />Hield has been a rare entity this season -- an actual streaky shooter -- going through sizable stretches of hot shooting, as well as of more mediocre marksmanship. In each of OU's final five non-conference games (from December 12-25), Hield shot .500 or better on threes, with at least five attempts in each contest (<a href="http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/61663/buddy-hield">game-by-game log</a>).<br /><br />The first graph below shows Hield's game-by-game success from behind the three-point arc beginning with the start of Big 12 conference play (you can click on the graphics to enlarge them). After a rough outing at Iowa State in the opener (2-of-9), the senior guard went on a tear of eight straight games shooting .500 or better from long distance (the sizes of the basketball icons are proportional to the number of shots taken in each game, and the opponents are indicated by two-letter abbreviations, which is all I could fit in).* At roughly the midpoint of conference play, Hield's hot shooting was bringing him a lot of <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/big12/2016/01/29/oklahoma-buddy-hield-shooter-basketball-player-of-the-year-candidate/79475822/">media attention</a>. &nbsp; <br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mN0dPsvN1Yo/Vv6rH7ELRdI/AAAAAAAADaA/vbM7snr92DMt3odb8T09HneHibXVIl2og/s1600/hield%2B1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="258" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mN0dPsvN1Yo/Vv6rH7ELRdI/AAAAAAAADaA/vbM7snr92DMt3odb8T09HneHibXVIl2og/s400/hield%2B1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />Hield cooled down during the latter part of Big 12 play, however, shooting in the .300s on treys in seven of OU's last 10 regular-season games (and never higher than .462 during this span). The Big 12 tournament did go well either for Hield, as he shot .333 (2-of-6) in a win over Iowa State and .167 (1-of-6) in a loss to West Virginia.<br /><br />Once NCAA-tournament action got underway, Hield began to reverse his regular-season slump. In OU's first game, against Cal State Bakersfield (abbreviated as "BK" on the horizontal axis), Hield hit 50% of his three-pointers (3-of-6), his first time at the break-even point in his last 13 games. A .429 (6-of-14) outing against VCU was solid, if not spectacular. Then, after regressing to .286 (2-of-7) vs. Texas A&amp;M, Hield broke out with a .615 (8-of-13) performance from downtown in the Sooners' regional-final rout of Oregon.<br /><br />Hield's March Madness upturn has involved only a few games, however, so whether or not he's really "back" remains open to debate. Using the statistical technique of <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2012/12/after-22-games-this-season-o.html">local (or "loess") regression</a>&nbsp;to discern larger trends, the results are inconclusive. If the analysis is specified to be highly sensitive or reactive to changes occurring over small numbers of games (left graph, below), there does appear to be a modest NCAA-tournament rise for Hield. However, if the analysis is programmed to less sensitivity and reactivity, and greater smoothness (right graph), no recent rise is detectable<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_25GqBzw_b8/Vv6rPYneoiI/AAAAAAAADaE/6nULcajqwy0FEE89QpZoJ0JeQEpIhdUuQ/s1600/hield%2B2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_25GqBzw_b8/Vv6rPYneoiI/AAAAAAAADaE/6nULcajqwy0FEE89QpZoJ0JeQEpIhdUuQ/s400/hield%2B2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />So whether Hield has regained his yield is unclear. Until tomorrow...<br /><br />---<br />*For fans of the Big 12, the abbreviations should be interpretable, albeit odd (e.g., "TC" instead of TCU, "KS" for Kansas State). In the midst of conference play, Oklahoma took on LSU ("LS") in the Big 12/SEC Challenge. In the NCAA tournament, BK = Cal State Bakersfield, VC = Virginia Commonwealth, AM = Texas A&amp;M, and OR = Oregon.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-37266242942778331492016-03-16T22:44:00.000-07:002016-03-16T23:03:38.106-07:00"Explosiveness" of NCAA Men's Basketball High SeedsWith the annual NCAA men's basketball tournament getting underway, I wanted to apply a measure I originally developed for the Golden State Warriors, namely offensive "explosiveness," to the leading teams in March Madness.<br /><br />Reuters news-agency blogger Chris Taylor contacted me a week ago, as part of his investigation of statistical tools that might inform March Madness predictions. I told him about explosiveness, which he included among his "<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-money-sports-gambling-idUSKCN0WG1S7">Seven tips for crunching March Madness math</a>." As Taylor characterized my explanation of why one might want to study explosiveness, "Winning teams need to be able to come back from behind, or pull away [in] close games." It remains to be seen whether explosiveness has any predictive power in this year's NCAA tourney. However, as I told Taylor somewhat flippantly, "It seems to work for Golden State!" &nbsp;In the remainder of this posting, I discuss explosiveness in greater detail.<br /><br />The explosiveness statistic measures high-scoring bursts in short stretches of time. Instead of looking at 12-minute quarters in the NBA, I looked at 6-minute "eighths" of games. An explosive burst in NBA play is defined as scoring 18 or more points in 6 minutes (3 points per minute), which if maintained over an entire 48-minute game would yield a whopping 144 points. In the Warriors' first 25 games of the present season, in <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-importance-of-six-minute-scoring.html">nearly one-fourth of all their 6-minute blocks</a> did they register an explosive burst.<br /><br />For the 40-minute length of college-basketball games, I looked at 5-minute blocks (one-eighth of regulation game-length) to see how often teams scored 15 or more points (i.e., 3 points per minute). Due to time constraints, I analyzed only the top eight projected teams in the field (i.e., all the No. 1 and 2 seeds in the <a href="http://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/external/printable-bracket/2016/bracket-ncaa.pdf">bracket</a>) and looked only at each of these teams' final 10 regular-season games. I did not include overtime periods, so each team had a total of 80 5-minute blocks. As shown in the following table (on which you can click to enlarge), the eight teams varied greatly in their explosiveness.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Zqr2TJ9NlBA/VuoyA2FAy_I/AAAAAAAADZw/otk9_lEAPkAXWHpi9VwTt5465AkrsrJog/s1600/ncaa%2Bexplosiveness.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Zqr2TJ9NlBA/VuoyA2FAy_I/AAAAAAAADZw/otk9_lEAPkAXWHpi9VwTt5465AkrsrJog/s400/ncaa%2Bexplosiveness.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />As can be seen, Xavier (Ohio), the No. 2 seed in the East region, was the most explosive team among those studied. Playing in the Big East Conference, the Musketeers recorded 13 explosive (15-point or more) bursts in their 80 5-minute blocks. Here are several examples:<br /><ul><li>In one game alone, vs. Creighton on March 5, the Musketeers pulled off three bursts (<a href="http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=400840234">play-by-play sheet</a>). Xavier went from having 44 points at halftime to 60 points with 15:00 min remaining; from 66 points with 10:00 left to 82 with 5:00 to go; and 82 with 5:00 left to 98 points at the end.&nbsp;</li><li>At Seton Hall on February 28, a game in which the Musketeers trailed 45-26 at the half and ultimately lost 90-81, Xavier rallied feverishly in the second half. XU went from 43 points with 10:00 left to 58 with 5:00 left; and from 58 with 5:00 left to 81 at the final buzzer, a 23-point super-explosion (<a href="http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=400840314">play-by-play)</a>.&nbsp;</li></ul><div><br />Kansas (No. 1 seed in South region) and Oregon (No. 1 in the West) followed with nine explosive bursts each. Oklahoma (No. 2 in West) surprised me with only four bursts, given the <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/big12/2016/01/29/oklahoma-buddy-hield-shooter-basketball-player-of-the-year-candidate/79475822/">excellent three-point shooting</a> this season by the Sooners' Buddy Hield. Virginia (No. 1 in the Midwest) had no explosions in its final 10 regular-season games.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>I next inquired into what other skills and styles of play might contribute to a team's explosiveness (or lack thereof). The first things that occurred to me were that an explosive team was likely to play at a fast tempo (i.e., shooting early in the shot clock, generating many possessions per game) and be good at shooting the three. Results only partially supported these hypotheses (see the grey columns in the chart above). Note, however, that whereas explosiveness was only measured in teams' final 10 regular-season games (because combing through play-by-play sheets is time-consuming), all the other statistics are based on teams' full seasons.</div><div><br /></div><div>Xavier indeed plays at the fastest pace &nbsp;(74.5 possessions per game) among the No. 1 and 2 seeds, corresponding to the Musketeers' explosiveness. However, Oklahoma plays nearly as fast (73.7 possessions per game), but had low explosiveness. Virginia plays at a very slow pace (62.4 possessions per game, dead last among the 351 Division I men's teams), which seems to go a long way toward explaining the Cavaliers' lack of explosiveness. (Tempo/possession statistics are available <a href="https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/possessions-per-game">here</a>.)</div><div><br /></div><div>Kansas, with nine explosive bursts, thrives on the three-pointer. Not only do the Jayhawks have one of the nation's highest shooting percentages from behind the arc; they also are <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bill-self-is-finally-warming-up-to-the-3-pointer/">attempting more treys</a> than they have in the past. (All shooting, rebounding, and defensive statistics cited here are from the <a href="http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1">NCAA statistics webpage</a>.)</div><div><br /></div><div>Michigan State, with seven explosive bursts, is first in the nation in two categories: three-point shooting percentage and defensive rebounds per game. Limiting opponents to one shot and making shots yourself should contribute to explosiveness. However, the Spartans are quite low in turnovers forced per game, which presumably works against MSU being able to score quickly.<br /><br />Oklahoma, which shoots well, cleans the defensive glass, and plays relatively fast, remains an enigma.</div><div><br /></div><div>Keep an eye out for whether the eight teams seeded No. 1 or 2 make it to the Final Four. Either the explosiveness statistic will go out with a bang or be a dud.</div>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-90754518241086199622016-01-21T17:55:00.001-08:002016-01-21T17:55:30.278-08:00A Decade of UConn Women's Basketball Wins and Losses, At a GlanceLast Friday, ESPN.com ran a piece documenting the <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/113704/what-are-the-best-100-game-stretches-across-the-major-sports">best 100-game stretches</a> in U.S. college sports and major pro leagues such as the NBA, NFL, NHL, and MLB. At the time the article appeared, the University of Connecticut (UConn) women's basketball program had won 99 of its last 100 games (now 101 of its last 102). The legendary UCLA men's basketball program under coach John Wooden also had recorded a 99-1 stretch, from 1971-74.<br /><br />The UConn women under coach Geno Auriemma <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geno_Auriemma">have been dominant</a> since winning the first of their 10 NCAA national times (and compiling the first of their five undefeated seasons) in 1995. I, therefore, wanted to look at the Huskies' long-term success beyond their past 100 games.<br /><br />I decided to examine UConn's last 400 games, representing roughly the past decade of play. The Huskies' past 400 games span from the opening game of the 2005-06 season all the way to last night, when UConn <a href="http://www.uconnhuskies.com/sports/w-baskbl/recaps/012016aaa.html">routed Central Florida</a>, 106-51. In these games, the Huskies are 377-23 (.942).<br /><br />This record appears more compelling, in my view, when viewed in graphic form. I've thus created a diagram that shows 400 dots (one for each game), with wins depicted in <span style="color: blue;">blue</span> and losses in <span style="color: red;">red</span>. The games are arranged in chronological sequence, from the first contest in the upper-left corner, advancing across each row of dots, until the 400th game in the lower-right corner. Here's the diagram:<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LFnavLsOsDk/VqGKCXG5IgI/AAAAAAAADYc/-NSIcVG694E/s1600/uconn%2Bwomen%2B400%2Bgames.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="161" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LFnavLsOsDk/VqGKCXG5IgI/AAAAAAAADYc/-NSIcVG694E/s400/uconn%2Bwomen%2B400%2Bgames.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Pretty blue, huh? I can't think of a way to convey the Huskies' dominance any more dramatically. The picture includes both a <a href="http://www.uconnhuskies.com/sports/w-baskbl/recaps/122910aaa.html">90-game winning streak</a> (the NCAA Division I record among men or women) and the current 101-1 stretch, as indicated by the side annotations. To help with interpretation of the diagram, I also created the following legend:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2xeiYmLTWeo/VqGLHix-pyI/AAAAAAAADYo/kWfdbyH3Egs/s1600/uconn%2B400%2Blegend.jpg.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="188" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2xeiYmLTWeo/VqGLHix-pyI/AAAAAAAADYo/kWfdbyH3Egs/s400/uconn%2B400%2Blegend.jpg.gif" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">(You can click on the graphics to enlarge them.)</div>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-31240239401869774302015-12-25T13:43:00.000-08:002016-01-26T20:41:30.549-08:00The Importance of Six-Minute Scoring Spurts in the Warriors’ Winning Streak Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!<br /><br />As part of the NBA's package of Christmas telecasts, the champion Golden State Warriors (27-1) will host Cleveland (19-7) in a rematch of last season's finals. The Warriors have been the big story of the 2015-16 season, <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/gs">starting out 24-0</a> (a 28-game regular-season winning streak if one includes the last four games of the previous season) to threaten the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers' record <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2007/01/today-is-35th-anniversary-of-ending-of.html">33-game winning streak</a>. After a December 12 loss at Milwaukee to end the streak, Golden State has won three in a row.<br /><br />On this holiday occasion, I'd like to look back on the Warriors' winning streak, using an unusual lens. Offense is the team's forte, as seen in the <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/_/stat/team-comparison-per-game/year/2015">NBA team-scoring rankings</a>. Some basketball analysts look at statistics such as teams’ points per game or points per 100 possessions. To understand the Golden State Warriors’ success over the past season and a half, in my view, we have to look at smaller segments of play. Not halves, not quarters, but six-minute “eighths” of games. When the first-quarter clock runs down from 12:00 to 6:01, that would be the first eighth; from 6:00 to 0:00, the second. The eighth and final eighth would run from 6:00 to 0:00 of the fourth quarter.<br /><br />In the 2015 playoffs, the Warriors played 21 games and thus 168 eighths of basketball (overtimes are not counted within my analyses). In 22 of these 168 eighths (13%), Golden State scored 18 or more points, which translates into 3 or more points per minute. If a team maintained a 3-points/minute pace for a full 48-minute game, it would score 144 points. Thus, I use 18+ point eighths as a marker of offensive explosiveness. The 22 eighths in which the Dubs scored 18+ points during these playoffs included three of 24 points (4 points per minute) and one of 25 points.<br /><br />Through the Warriors’ first 25 games of the 2015-16 season – 24 wins followed by a loss – they have recorded 46 eighths of 18+ points in the 200 eighths they’ve played (23%). (Given that opposition is stronger in the playoffs than in the regular season, it’s not surprising that Golden State’s percentage of eighths with 18+ points is higher in the latter.)<br /><br />The Warriors’ best eighth of the current season, as far as I can tell, occurred in the last six minutes of the <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/playbyplay?gameId=400828201">first quarter</a> on December 8 at Indiana. After scoring 17 points in the first 6:00 of the quarter, the Dubs added 27 points in the latter half of the first quarter (the second eighth of the game). This explosion included four treys (plus Klay Thompson making all three free throws after being fouled behind the arc).<br /><br />After the Warriors’ 114-98 <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=400828187">win at Brooklyn</a> to go 22-0, acting coach Luke Walton was quoted as saying that, "It's one of our biggest strengths, is that we're never out of a game and we're always one little run away from putting a game away."<br /><br />The following graph plots Golden State's points scored in the final 6:00 (the eighth eighth) of their first 25 games this season, as a function the number of points by which they were leading or trailing with 6:00 minutes left in regulation, We see that the Warriors’ greatest scoring outbursts in the final eighth have occurred when they have trailed or been tied heading into them. (For those with some statistical training, the correlation between Warriors’ margin entering the final eighth and their points scored in the final eighth is <i>r</i> = -.52, <i>p</i> &lt; .01.)<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zxF4sVSHG1k/Vn2yjZxb2DI/AAAAAAAADUc/tNdeoCi23-c/s1600/warriors%2Bstreak.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="362" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zxF4sVSHG1k/Vn2yjZxb2DI/AAAAAAAADUc/tNdeoCi23-c/s400/warriors%2Bstreak.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />In some ways, this finding is totally intuitive. Trailing or being tied should motivate a team (especially one, such as the Warriors, who were trying to maintain a long winning streak) to play extra hard; conversely, when a team is way ahead, it likely will put reserves in the game and run time off the clock, both resulting in lower offensive output. In another way, however, the finding is not so intuitive. If you’re trailing or tied late in the game, it could mean you are playing a tough opponent and/or having an off-night, which are not conducive to big scoring runs.<br /><br />The above graph also shows that failure to respond as expected is what put the Warriors’ winning streak in jeopardy in Game 24 at Boston (a double-overtime Golden State win) and helped end it the next night in Milwaukee. According to the trend-line projection, the Dubs would have been expected to score 17 or 18 points in the final eighth of the Celtics game, but instead scored only 12 (this discrepancy is depicted by the red dashed vertical line). Trailing by 13 at Milwaukee, Golden State would have been expected to put up 20 in the final six minutes, but instead scored only 15.* Given that the Boston and Milwaukee games were the sixth and seventh of a seven-game road trip, the late-game loss of the Warriors’ explosiveness doesn’t seem surprising.<br /><br />I don’t expect media outlets to replace the standard quarter-based line-score with one organized by eighths. For highly explosive teams such as the Warriors, however, I do believe eighths are a useful lens for statistical analysis.<br /><br />---<br /><br />&nbsp;*The Warriors lost to Milwaukee by 13 (<a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=400828238">108-95</a>), so strictly speaking, even if Golden State had scored the extra five points predicted by the correlational analysis, it still would have lost. Had the Warriors shown more offensive prowess in the final 6:00, however, the Bucks might have begun to feel pressure and perhaps the ending would have unfolded differently. alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-53344887934030710672015-12-12T20:01:00.002-08:002015-12-12T20:03:58.700-08:00It's Over! Warriors Lose to Bucks 108-95Living members and fans of the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers can rest easy, as that team's <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2007/01/today-is-35th-anniversary-of-ending-of.html">33-game winning streak</a> will remain the NBA record for the foreseeable future. Whether you counted the Golden State Warriors' current win streak at 24 or 28 games (including the last four of the 2014-15 regular season), it doesn't matter. The Warriors' streak is now over, as moments ago, they fell at Milwaukee, 108-95. The Bucks held a double-digit lead for much of the contest. A few times late in the third quarter and early in the fourth, Golden State cut the deficit to three points or fewer, but never could tie the game or take the lead (<a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/playbyplay?gameId=400828238&amp;period=0">play-by-play sheet</a>). Playing the final game of a seven-game road-trip, just one night after a double-overtime win in Boston, the Warriors appeared spent.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-48868849537714323132015-12-09T10:12:00.000-08:002015-12-09T10:13:57.517-08:00Should Warriors' 4 Wins at End of 2014-15 Regular Season Count as Part of Current Winning Streak?As virtually all readers of this blog would know, the Golden State Warriors have yet to lose in the 2015-16 NBA season, increasing their record to 23-0 with <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=400828201">last night's win</a> at Indiana. The NBA record for longest winning streak is, of course, the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers' <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2007/01/today-is-35th-anniversary-of-ending-of.html">33-game stretch</a>.<br /><br />So the Warriors are 10 wins shy of the record. Well, not necessarily. Golden State <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/gs/year/2015/golden-state-warriors">won its last four regular-season games</a> of the previous season, so it is technically accurate to say the "Dubs," as they're sometimes called, have won 27 straight <i>regular-season</i> games.<br /><br />After I mentioned on Twitter the idea of counting the last four games of 2014-15, Lakers fan<a href="https://twitter.com/slowshi"> Len Lester</a> tweeted at me that "if you're carrying over last season gotta include post season too." The Warriors won the NBA title last season, but <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/gs/year/2015/seasontype/3/golden-state-warriors">lost a combined five games</a> in the playoffs. <br /><br />In thinking about Len's point, I have to admit that it's more than a little odd to claim a continuous win streak from April 2015 (when the regular season ended) to the present, when Golden State <i>lost</i> five games in between.<br /><br />Hypothetically, if the Warriors get to 30-0 just in the current season and then lose -- giving them 34 straight wins over two regular seasons -- I suspect the NBA might create two entries in its record book: longest winning streak within a single regular season, and longest regular-season winning streak spanning multiple seasons.<br /><br />I've added a poll in the right-hand column, so readers can vote on whether the last four wins of the previous season should be added to Golden State's current total.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-63858012120211119272015-10-26T08:38:00.000-07:002015-10-26T08:48:15.613-07:00A (Somewhat) Unusual Aspect of Daniel Murphy's Postseason Home-Run StreakAs we approach the opening of the 2015 World Series on Tuesday night, the dominant story line has been the home-run streak of Mets second-baseman Daniel Murphy. He has hit a <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/29200/daniel-murphy">home-run in each of his last six games</a>, a playoff record.<br /><br />One of the key principles I've gleaned through nearly 15 years of hot-hand research is that long streaks are most likely to be achieved by players and teams with very high baseline success rates.<br /><br />The late Harvard paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/1988/aug/18/the-streak-of-streaks/">famously wrote that</a>, "Long streaks always are, and must be, a matter of extraordinary luck imposed upon great skill." Thus, if you look at some of longest streaks in American sports history -- 88 straight wins by John Wooden's UCLA men's basketball teams of the 1970s, and 90 by Gino Auriemma's UConn women of the 2000s; Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak; and Tiger Woods making the cut in 142 straight golf tournaments -- these are all athletes and teams that generally succeeded an enormously high percent of the time. Throw in a little luck to avoid a loss in a close game (or a hitless game or missed cut) and, voila, you have a long streak.<br /><br />Murphy, however, does not have a high base rate of home-run production, <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/29200/daniel-murphy">never hitting more than 14</a> in any of his seven regular seasons, and averaging about nine per year. A home-run streak by Murphy is therefore more out-of-the-ordinary than, say, one by Mike Trout would be. (Click <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/a-run-like-the-mets-daniel-murphys-should-happen-once-every-two-years/">here</a> for a statistical analysis taking this approach.)<br /><br />A second unusual feature of Murphy's streak -- and perhaps I'm being too picky -- is that, when a player goes on a monster home-run tear, there's a good chance he'll have one or more multi-homer games within the streak. Murphy has not, hitting exactly one homer per game during his streak.<br /><br />In September 2010, for example, then-Colorado shortstop Troy Tulowitzki hit <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2010/09/im-little-behind-curve-on-this.html">14 home-runs in a 15-game span</a>, including four multi-homer games. (Playing at homer-friendly Coors Field for many of those games probably helped.)<br /><br />Then there's the case of Hee-Seop Choi, whose <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/choihe01.shtml">brief MLB career</a> included a weekend in June 2005 in which, playing for the Dodgers he belted <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=250612119">six home-runs in a three-game series</a> vs. the Twins (two, one, and three homers, respectively, on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday). He hit only three more homers the rest of the season and never played in the majors after 2005.<br /><br />Finally, when we look at the <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=ZAxHi">players Murphy surpassed</a> for most consecutive postseason games with a homer, the tendency for multi-homer games to be embedded within the streaks is there (highlighted in yellow). The number of homers a player hit in a given game are shown in parentheses. Click on the number in parentheses for the box-score.<br /><br /><b>Carlos Beltran, 2004, 5 straight games:</b> <span style="background-color: yellow;">NLDS Game 5 (<a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=241011115">2</a>)</span>; NLCS Game 1 (<a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=241013124">1</a>); NLCS Game 2 (<a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=241014124">1</a>); NLCS Game 3 (<a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=241016118">1</a>); NLCS Game 4 (<a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=241017118">1</a>)<br /><br /><b>Evan Longoria, 2008, 4 straight:</b> ALCS Game 2 (<a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=281011130">1</a>); ALCS Game 3 (<a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=281013102">1</a>); ALCS Game 4 (<a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=281014102">1</a>); ALCS Game 5 (<a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=281016102">1</a>)<br /><br /><b>Jim Thome, 1998-1999, 4 straight:</b> '98 ALCS Game 5 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE199810110.shtml">1</a>); '98 ALCS Game 6 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA199810130.shtml">1</a>); '99 ALDS Game 1 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE199910060.shtml">1</a>); '99 ALDS Game 2 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE199910070.shtml">1</a>)<br /><br /><b>Juan Gonzalez, 1996, 4 straight:</b> ALDS Game 1 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA199610010.shtml">1</a>); <span style="background-color: yellow;">ALDS Game 2 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA199610020.shtml">2</a>)</span>; ALDS Game 3 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TEX/TEX199610040.shtml">1</a>); ALDS Game 4 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TEX/TEX199610050.shtml">1</a>); <br /><br /><b>Jeff Leonard, 1987, 4 straight:</b> NLCS Game 1 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN198710060.shtml">1</a>); NLCS Game 2 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN198710070.shtml">1</a>); NLCS Game 3 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN198710090.shtml">1</a>); NLCS Game 4 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN198710100.shtml">1</a>)<br /><br /><b>Reggie Jackson, 1977-1978, 4 straight:</b> '77 WS Game 4 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN197710150.shtml">1</a>); '77 WS Game 5 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN197710160.shtml">1</a>); <span style="background-color: yellow;">'77 WS Game 6 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA197710180.shtml">3</a>)</span>; '78 ALCS (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/KCA/KCA197810030.shtml">1</a>)<br /><br /><b>Lou Gehrig, 1928-1932, 4 straight:</b> '28 WS Game 2 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA192810050.shtml">1</a>); <span style="background-color: yellow;">'28 WS Game 3 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN192810070.shtml">2</a>)</span>; '28 WS Game 4 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN192810090.shtml">1</a>); '32 WS Game 1 (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA193209280.shtml">1</a>)<br /><br />Don't get me wrong. Hitting one home-run in each of six straight games, as Murphy has done, is amazing. It's just that, if a player is seeing pitched balls really well or concentrating better than ever, wouldn't we expect such a mental state of being "in the zone" to manifest itself within the same game?alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-14386663744280961492015-09-24T06:52:00.000-07:002015-09-24T07:02:46.399-07:00This Week's Wall Street Journal Interview with Billy Beane and Bill James, and the 2003 Scottsdale, Arizona Informal Sports-Analytics ConferenceIn March 2003, I attended a small, informal conference in Scottsdale, Arizona (strategically selected to coincide with spring training) with sabermetrically inclined academicians and sports journalists/analysts. The conference was mentioned three days ago in a <i>Wall Street Journal</i> interview with Oakland A's General Manager Billy Beane and Boston Red Sox adviser Bill James (<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-discussion-with-baseball-revolutionaries-billy-beane-and-bill-james-1442854375" target="_blank">link</a>). My friend Mike Gustafson, remembering that I had attended the conference, brought the WSJ article to my attention (Thanks Mike!).<br /><br />Reference to the Arizona meeting came up almost by accident in the interview, in response to a question about a different topic. Here's the relevant part of the article:<br /><br /><i><span style="color: blue;"><b>WSJ:</b> Is there another sport that stands out to either of you as being most ripe for the kind of revolution baseball has undergone with analytics?&nbsp;</span></i><br /><i><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></i><i><span style="color: blue;">&nbsp;<b>James:</b> Football, from a popular perception angle, has lots of openings for analysts to rush in. There’s been this ongoing debate in football. Billy and I met in Arizona. When was that?&nbsp;</span></i><br /><i><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></i><i><span style="color: blue;">&nbsp;<b>Beane:</b> 2000, 2001 maybe. It was a little half-conference that Bill had and I joined him for. It was before the book.&nbsp;</span></i><br /><i><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></i><i><span style="color: blue;"><b>James:</b> The guy who put it together was a distinguished economist from the University of Chicago. One thing we talked about then, I remember, there was a guy from AT&amp;T who studies football, and he was arguing then that it’s foolish for football coaches to punt in many situations in which they actually do punt... </span></i><br /><br />Beane was a couple of years off, and the football analyst mentioned by James is <a href="http://eml.berkeley.edu//~dromer/" target="_blank">David Romer</a> of UC Berkeley (not AT&amp;T, unless he did research for the telecommunications giant at some other point in his career). Other than that, however, Beane and James were pretty accurate about the conference. Here's a <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w9024" target="_blank">link</a> to Romer's paper, by the way.<br /><br />My connection is that, along with Tom Gilovich, I was representing hot-hand research. Most of the participants in the meeting are shown in the following photo (with a legend to identify participants at the very bottom of this posting). You may click on the graphics to enlarge them.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-wPPgfcwLkLU/VgPxPlWZF8I/AAAAAAAADPQ/QvSYhbRtUQc/s1600/2003%2Barizona%2Bsports%2Bconf.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="382" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-wPPgfcwLkLU/VgPxPlWZF8I/AAAAAAAADPQ/QvSYhbRtUQc/s400/2003%2Barizona%2Bsports%2Bconf.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />The "distinguished economist" from Chicago is&nbsp;<a href="http://www.chicagobooth.edu/faculty/directory/t/Richard-H-Thaler" target="_blank">Richard Thaler</a>&nbsp;(first row, white shirt). Among his other accomplishments, Thaler co-authored the book&nbsp;<a href="http://yalepress.yale.edu/Book.asp?isbn=9780300122237" target="_blank"><i>Nudge</i></a>&nbsp;in 2008. Thaler co-organized the conference with&nbsp;<a href="http://psych.indiana.edu/faculty/sherman.php" target="_blank">Jim Sherman</a>&nbsp;of Indiana University (standing next to Thaler). Beane is not shown in the photo, as he was busy overseeing the A's from their nearby spring-training complex and took time from his day to come by the conference to speak at one session.<br /><div><br /></div><div>One broad theme addressed at the conference was the future of systematic empirical research in guiding sports teams' decision-making. Twelve years post-conference, I think it's safe to say that the use of such research has expanded dramatically beyond the A's, Red Sox, and any other teams that were looking at sabermetrics in 2003.<br /><br />In 2015,&nbsp;<i>ESPN The Magazine</i>, which has been issuing an annual Sports Analytics Issue for at least the past few years, <a href="http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings" target="_blank">ranked all MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL franchises on their commitment to sabermetrics</a>, using a five-level scale (All-In, Believers, One Foot In, Skeptics, and Non-Believers). With the exception of the NFL (where no teams were listed as All-In), the combined total for All-In and Believers exceeded that for Skeptics and Non-Believers in all sports.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>Another indicator is the annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, the history of which is documented <a href="http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?page_id=490" target="_blank">here</a>. The inaugural meeting in 2007 was held on the MIT campus and attracted approximately 175 people. By 2015, attendance had jumped to 3,200, with the festivities now being held in a large convention center. Three league commissioners (NBA, MLB, and Major League Soccer) spoke at the 2015 conference.<br /><br />Here's the legend identifying participants in the 2003 Scottsdale conference.</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1QlqPMfDaTs/VgPxZ7arrSI/AAAAAAAADPY/aOLFeGkbHvU/s1600/arizona%2Bconf%2Blegend.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="282" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1QlqPMfDaTs/VgPxZ7arrSI/AAAAAAAADPY/aOLFeGkbHvU/s320/arizona%2Bconf%2Blegend.png" width="320" /></a></div>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-89682106880850225252015-08-01T12:09:00.004-07:002015-08-01T12:29:40.867-07:00New Study of NBA 3-PT Contest Heats Up Hot-Hand DebatesA new study of NBA All-Star Weekend three-point shooting contests by Joshua Miller and Adam Sanjurjo, posted to the Social Science Research Network (<a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2611987" target="_blank">link</a>), has re-ignited debates over the magnitude of hot-hand effects on basketball shooting. Miller and Sanjurjo have identified a bias in certain types of hot-hand calculations that appears to have led to underestimation of hot-hand effects in previous studies. While there appears to be a broad consensus (including the present writer) on the validity of Miller and Sanjurjo's point, numerous other issues are being debated among the lead writers and commentators on various sports blogs.<br /><br />First off, let's review the aforementioned bias. Miller and Sanjurjo, as have others, compared basketball shooters' hit rates when hot (in this case, following three straight made shots) to their hit rates following three-shot sequences other than three straight hits (when players are less hot or even cold). The authors' SSRN paper notes that distortion stems from the fact that "conditioning on a streak of three or more hits creates a selection bias in which these hits are removed from the sample, leaving a smaller fraction of hits, thus driving conditional performance on the subsequent shot below the base rate" (p. 9). Here's a concrete illustration. Using part of an example Miller shared in an e-mail, where H = hit and M = miss, the sequence [<span style="color: red;">HHH</span>M<span style="color: red;">HHH</span>M] would yield the not-so-hot result that the player was 0-for-2 on shots following three straight hits, even though the player's overall shooting (6-of-8) was very hot. Further, with a correction formula devised by Miller and Sanjuro, hot-hand effects now appear to be larger than previously thought (at least within this type of analysis).<br /><br />This finding has sent statistically oriented bloggers to their keyboards with great urgency. Columbia University statistics professor Andrew Gelman headlined his <a href="http://andrewgelman.com/2015/07/09/hey-guess-what-there-really-is-a-hot-hand/" target="_blank">July 9 posting</a> "Hey -- guess what? There really is a hot hand!" The last I checked, Gelman's piece had received 105 comments! Then, on July 21, all-around sabermetrician Phil Birnbaum weighed in on his blog with a posting entitled "<a href="http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2015/07/a-hot-hand-is-found-for-nba-three-point.html" target="_blank">A 'hot hand' is found in the NBA three-point contest</a>."<br /><br />Though some of the commenters on these blogs have gone back and forth over the proper magnitude of the correction for the aforementioned bias and other methodological issues, I think it's easiest to take Miller and Sanjurjo's findings at face value. Table 1 of their paper is very informative, presenting results for 33 players, with and without bias-correction. The authors correctly note that, when averaging over players, those with negative results (shooting worse after a hot streak) can cancel out positive results. A simple look at the frequencies of different results therefore seems warranted, so I have summarized the results concisely from Miller and Sanjurjo's more-elaborate table. Even with the bias-correction (which enhances how streaky a player looks), here's how many players show different increases in shooting percentage conditional on making three straight shots:<br /><br /><table border="1" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3" style="background-color: #ffcc33; border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #FFFF66; color: black; width: 40%;"> <tbody><tr> <td><div style="text-align: center;"><b>Accuracy Gain&nbsp;</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b>After 3 Straight&nbsp;</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b>Hits ("Hotness")</b></div></td> <td><div style="text-align: center;"><b>No. of&nbsp;</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b>Contestants</b></div></td> </tr><tr> <td><div style="text-align: center;"><b>.34</b></div></td> <td><div style="text-align: center;"><b>1</b></div></td> </tr><tr> <td><div style="text-align: center;"><b>.20 to .22</b></div></td> <td><div style="text-align: center;"><b>3</b></div></td> </tr><tr> <td><div style="text-align: center;"><b>.14 to .18</b></div></td> <td><div style="text-align: center;"><b>4</b></div></td> </tr><tr> <td><div style="text-align: center;"><b>.11 to .12</b></div></td> <td><div style="text-align: center;"><b>5</b></div></td> </tr><tr> <td><div style="text-align: center;"><b>.05 to .07</b></div></td> <td><div style="text-align: center;"><b>5</b></div></td> </tr><tr> <td><div style="text-align: center;"><b>.01 to .04</b></div></td> <td><div style="text-align: center;"><b>10</b></div></td> </tr><tr> <td><div style="text-align: center;"><b>Negative</b></div></td> <td><div style="text-align: center;"><b>5</b></div></td> </tr></tbody></table><br />Miller and Sanjurjo's claim that <i>some</i> players exhibit quite appreciable streakiness is well-supported. What about the "typical" or "average" performance? The median for all players (which is unaffected by how far in a positive or negative direction the most extreme values sit) is a .05 or 5% improvement after making three straight shots (16 players above .05, 2 at .05, and 15 below it). This is indeed stronger evidence for basketball-shooting streakiness than we've seen before. For example, a Harvard study (Bocskocsky, Ezekowitz &amp; Stein, 2014) found approximately a 2% hot-hand increase for NBA in-game shooting, using <a href="http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/" target="_blank">SportVU tracking-camera &nbsp;technology</a> (<a href="http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014_SSAC_The-Hot-Hand-A-New-Approach.pdf" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/ideas/2014/02/09/the-hot-hand-might-real-after-all/N8V34bGLWhPqk0Sx9yoHWI/story.html" target="_blank">here</a>).<br /><br />There are a couple of possible reasons why Miller and Sanjurjo's findings may overstate hot-hand effects. As Birnbaum notes, within the 25-shot sequence of the NBA three-point contest, there are five locations, from each of which the player attempts five straight shots. Thus, if a shooter hits his first shot from a given location, he can rely on the same motor/muscle memory in launching the next four shots.<br /><br />Further, players invited to the NBA three-point-shooting contest are known to be great outside shooters, and players with high base rates of success appear more likely than those with lower base rates to go on hot streaks. Therefore, it would be interesting to see what would happen with a more representative cross-section of NBA players. (Both the motor/muscle-memory and base-rate issues are discussed in my book.)<br /><br />Even if Miller and Sanjurjo's 5% median hot-hand effect is not inflated, it is still probably a smaller magnitude than most fans would associate with the term "hot hand," as the authors appear to acknowledge. The double-digit percentage-point increases some shooters exhibit after three straight hits, on the other hand, would seem to be closer to a lay characterization of a hot hand.<br /><br />In addition, Miller, in comments on the Gelman blog, holds the Harvard study to a very high level of scrutiny, in my view. Arguably, too high. For example, Miller notes that it omitted some possible control variables, including "the quality and identity of the defender." However, the Harvard study did control for "Distance of Closest Defender, Angle of Closest Defender, Shooter-Defender Height Difference, and [whether the shooter was] Double Covered." Once all these facets of the defense are accounted for, I don't know how much incremental knowledge we gain from knowing the <a href="https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/player-stat/defensive-plays-per-foul" target="_blank">defensive-efficiency</a> of the player guarding the shooter. I therefore take the Harvard study's 2% estimate of a hot-hand magnitude as having probative value.<br /><br />In the end, I come down closer to Birnbaum's relatively skeptical view -- including his point that Miller and Sanjurjo's finding should be described as "<span style="color: red;">a</span>" hot hand, rather than "<span style="color: red;">the</span>" hot hand, because, like all studies, it is context-dependent -- than Gelman's more accepting position. Miller and Sanjurjo's hotness magnitudes for the hottest-shooting players are higher than I would have guessed. But the magnitudes for median shooters are only slightly higher than what I would have imagined.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-84178124064169620962015-06-25T07:42:00.000-07:002015-06-25T07:48:31.590-07:0076er Statistician Harvey Pollack, Who Had a Hand in Hot-Hand Research, Dies at 93As reported in newspapers yesterday, Philadelphia 76er statistician extraordinaire Harvey Pollack has <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/early-lead/wp/2015/06/24/nba-stats-guru-harvey-pollack-dies-at-age-93/" target="_blank">died at age 93</a>. In fact, it was Pollack's knack for quirky and exotic basketball statistics that greatly aided the first scholarly publication on hot-hand research.<br /><br />The publication I'm referring to, of course, is Tom Gilovich, Robert Vallone, and Amos Tversky's 1985 <a href="http://www.psych.cornell.edu/sec/pubPeople/tdg1/Gilo.Vallone.Tversky.pdf" target="_blank">article</a> "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences," which was published in <i>Cognitive Psychology</i>&nbsp;(sometimes referred to as "GVT" in reference to the authors' last initials). Pollack is thanked in GVT's author notes, and here's why.<br /><br />The GVT article included statistical analysis of three basketball-shooting compilations: field-goal shooting in 1980-81 Philadelphia 76er home games; free-throw shooting by the Boston Celtics in 1980-81 and 1981-82; and controlled shooting sessions with Cornell University men's and women's players.<br /><br />Of crucial importance is that, except for Pollack and the 76ers, no NBA team kept sequential shooting data on field-goal attempts. Box scores tell us each player's number of <i>total</i> field-goal attempts and made attempts, but not the player's sequence (e.g., hit-miss-miss-hit-hit...). Only because Pollack kept sequential field-goal data for players was this aspect able to be feasibly incorporated into the GVT article.<br /><br />Nowadays, play-by-play sheets are readily available on the Internet, which would make collecting player sequences reasonably doable. In the early 1980s, however, GVT's only alternative to Pollack's numbers would have been to watch large numbers of NBA games (not that they necessarily would have minded) and record sequential data on their own. As Gilovich confirmed for me yesterday, "Harvey was the guy without whom we could not have done our research. [I] owe him a lot!"alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-39151551944500861962015-04-19T14:44:00.002-07:002015-04-19T15:12:29.408-07:00Spurs' "Hotness" Entering NBA PlayoffsThe San Antonio Spurs, owner of five NBA titles including last year's, were floundering for much of the current season, at least relative to their high standards. A <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=400579145" target="_blank">four-game losing streak</a> in late February put San Antonio at 34-23. Perhaps having the <a href="http://www.therichest.com/sports/basketball-sports/the-10-oldest-teams-in-the-nba-for-the-2014-15-season/10/" target="_blank">oldest roster in the NBA</a> was starting to catch up with the Spurs. From that point on, however, Coach Gregg Popovich's crew went 21-4 to finish with a regular-season record of 55-27. And it wasn't just quantity of wins, but also quality, as the Spurs' hot streak included a March 22 win at Atlanta, an April 5 home win over Golden State, and a sweep of an April 8/10 home-and-home match-up vs. Houston.<br /><br />Baseball-statistics maven Bill James has a statistic he calls "temperature" to assess how hot or cold an individual or team is at the moment. According to this <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/tht-live/is-bill-james-temperature-a-leading-indicator/" target="_blank">article</a>, the formula adds a standard value to a team's temperature for each win in a streak, regardless of the quality of opposition and other possible features of each win (e.g., home/away, margin of victory). James's temperature for individual baseball players' hotness puts <a href="http://nesn.com/2011/08/bill-james-explains-new-temperature-gauge-statistic-to-determine-how-hot-or-cold-a-hitter-is/" target="_blank">greater weight on recent</a> than distant performance, but it's not clear his team formulas do the same. <br /><br />I started thinking about a temperature statistic for basketball teams, incorporating quality of opposition (with additional factors such as those listed above possibly being added later). The core concepts are that, against a tough opponent, a win should raise a team's temperature a lot, but a loss shouldn't hurt too much. Conversely, against a weak opponent, a loss should be damaging, but a win not very rewarding.<br /><br />In my system, a team starts at the neutral point of 1.00. Then, after each game, the previous value is multiplied by an update factor. The multiplier after a win is (1 + opponent's winning percentage), so that the better the opponent, the larger the rise in temperature. The multiplier after a loss is <i>just</i> the opponent's winning percentage, which will drop the temperature (multiplying anything by a number greater than 1.00 increases value, whereas multiplying something by a number between 0.00-1.00 decreases value). The following graphic (on which you can click to enlarge) provides some examples.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0-Xo_MTAoaw/VTQSYa_RkvI/AAAAAAAAC6A/Jg4ZL6S1O9Q/s1600/streak%2Btemperature%2Bschematic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0-Xo_MTAoaw/VTQSYa_RkvI/AAAAAAAAC6A/Jg4ZL6S1O9Q/s1600/streak%2Btemperature%2Bschematic.jpg" height="317" width="400" /></a></div><br />The opponent's winning percentage (right before you've played them) appears on the horizontal axis, the red and blue lines are used after a win or loss, respectively, and the multiplier after a game appears on the vertical axis. As one example, suppose your opponent enters the game with a .750 winning percentage and you beat this opponent. The previous value of your "temperature" is then multiplied by 1.750; this is a bigger increase than if you beat a .600 team (which would result in a multiplier of 1.600). Conversely, losing to a .400 teams requires you to multiply your previous temperature by .400, cutting value by more than half (e.g., a previous value of 10 would become 4). Losing to a .800 team, in contrast, doesn't hurt as much (multiplying the previous value by .800).<br /><br />In order for a win and a loss to cancel each other out and return a team to the neutral point of 1.00, a more dramatic win, such as beating a .750 team, would be offset by losing to a not-quite-as-good team, in this case with a pre-game .571 win percentage, and vice-versa (1.750 x .571 = 1.00, within rounding). The following graph provides a general characterization of the relationship between win and loss multipliers in order to restore a team to 1.00 (neutrality), plus another example.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-z_MuXtCWKCM/VTQY1Nmv5oI/AAAAAAAAC6Q/w1GLcvKMqLM/s1600/temperature%2Bxy%2Bcurve.pptx.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-z_MuXtCWKCM/VTQY1Nmv5oI/AAAAAAAAC6Q/w1GLcvKMqLM/s1600/temperature%2Bxy%2Bcurve.pptx.jpg" height="312" width="400" /></a></div><br />Enough formulas, let's get to some basketball! First, we see the Spurs' hotness for the final 10 games of each of the past four regular seasons (I think you'll need to click on this chart!).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nEJmE-zNIJY/VTQZWIHI_TI/AAAAAAAAC6Y/Wx9VzGH-4Ts/s1600/spurs%2Btemperatures.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nEJmE-zNIJY/VTQZWIHI_TI/AAAAAAAAC6Y/Wx9VzGH-4Ts/s1600/spurs%2Btemperatures.jpg" height="200" width="400" /></a></div><br />San Antonio's hotness over its last 10 games of the 2014-15 season is 28.47, obtained by multiplying the automatic start value of 1.00 x 1.685 (for the win over Memphis) x 1.466 (for the win over Miami), and so forth. The season-ending loss to New Orleans (which entered the game with a .543 winning percentage) essentially halved the Spurs' hotness value (i.e., multiplying by .543) in one fell swoop.<br /><br />The fact that the Spurs' hotness was right around the neutral point of 1.00 in both 2013-14, when they won the NBA championship, and in 2012-13, when only a <a href="http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/06/19/breaking-down-the-heats-game-6-comeback-over-spurs/" target="_blank">statistically unlikely comeback</a> by Miami in Game 6 of the finals prevented a San Antonio title, suggests hotness over the final 10 games is not important.Similar findings have been <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/ten-things-about-momentum-in-the-postseason/" target="_blank">obtained for baseball</a>.<br /><br />In the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season, however, the Spurs followed up their 10-game winning streak to end the regular season (hotness = 46.75) with <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/sa/year/2012/san-antonio-spurs" target="_blank">10 straight wins to begin the playoffs</a>, before being eliminated. San Antonio didn't win the title in 2011-12, but a <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?id=320531025" target="_blank">20-game winning streak</a> spanning the regular season and playoffs is pretty good!<br /><br />Let's look at some other teams that were hot over their final 10 regular-season games in recent years.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-J1YCr7dVLlk/VTQfRHRp3kI/AAAAAAAAC6o/koj7g7RXKnY/s1600/other%2Bnba%2Btemperatures.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-J1YCr7dVLlk/VTQfRHRp3kI/AAAAAAAAC6o/koj7g7RXKnY/s1600/other%2Bnba%2Btemperatures.jpg" height="171" width="400" /></a></div><br />As shown in the top row, the Spurs' opponent in the opening round of this year's playoffs (getting underway tonight), the Los Angeles Clippers, are pretty hot at the moment, too. Both teams are 9-1 over their final 10 regular-season games, but San Antonio (28.47) is hotter than L.A. (18.47), due to the Spurs' higher-quality opposition. For what it's worth, however, the Clippers' 18.47 hotness exceeds the 2012-13 NBA champion Miami Heat's 15.14 in also going 9-1 over its final 10 regular-season games (second row).<br /><br />Looking at teams with 8-2 records over their final 10 regular-season games this year, the Golden State Warriors, who had far-and-away the NBA's best record (67-15), had a hotness value of 9.76 (third row), and the Boston Celtics, who needed a feverish run just to make the playoffs, had a hotness of 9.65 (last row).<br /><br />As I noted above, other factors could be added to the mix. Perhaps a team's hotness could be multiplied by bonus adjustment factors of 1.05 or 1.10 (or something else) for each road win or blowout win, or could be multiplied by a deflationary factor of .95 or .90 for a home loss. Recency of performance, which I don't think was a big issue here due to the focus just on teams' final 10 games, could also be taken into account by multiplying newer wins by greater enhancement factors than older wins. Finally, teams' records toward the end of the regular season can be misleading due to resting of players. That's another factor for which adjustments would be helpful. Please share any ideas you have for further refinements, in the Comments section.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-3399282018198096572015-04-15T12:49:00.001-07:002015-04-16T10:24:53.394-07:00Korver Faces Tough Odds to Reach 50/50/90 LevelThe Atlanta Hawks' Kyle Korver should be familiar to aficionados of hot shooting. The 6-foot-7 shooting guard once had a streak, spanning the 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons, of making at least one three-pointer in a record <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/24470346/kyle-korvers-3-point-streak-ends-at-127-games" target="_blank">127 straight games</a>&nbsp;(I analyzed Korver's streak <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2013/12/kyle-korver-approaches-100-straight.html" target="_blank">here</a>, when it was at 98 games).<br /><br />During the 2014-15 season, Korver has sought out further frontiers of shooting accuracy. As Ian Levy pointed out back on February 13, Korver was <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kyle-korver-is-on-pace-for-the-best-nba-shooting-season-of-all-time/" target="_blank">threatening to record the unprecedented feat</a> of hitting 50 percent on all shots from the field, 50 percent from three-point land, and 90 percent on free throws, a so-called 50/50/90 season.<br /><br />As the Hawks enter their regular-season finale tonight at Chicago, Korver is slightly below all three milestone levels, with a .487 field-goal percentage, .493 three-point percentage, and .897 free-throw percentage (<a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/2011/kyle-korver" target="_blank">Korver stats page</a>).<br /><br />It's not even clear how much -- if at all -- Korver will play tonight, as the Hawks <a href="http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybasketball/update/25146490/hawks-resting-jeff-teague-kyle-korver-demarre-carroll-al-horford" target="_blank">rested Korver</a> and other key players last Sunday at Washington, although he played 34 minutes Monday vs. New York. However, assuming he plays tonight, what kind of shooting numbers will he need to post to reach each of the three criteria?<br /><br />I plotted some equations for how many shots <i>without a miss</i> Korver would need to make to reach .500 on overall field goals and treys, and .900 on free throws. Even if Korver missed a shot of a given type, it would be mathematically possible for him to still reach the milestone, but far more makes and attempts would be necessary than if he never missed.<br /><br />Let's take three-point shooting, where he enters the game 219 out of 444 (.493). Assuming no missed shots, the number of attempts is equal to the number of makes. We can thus define the equation:<br /><br /><i>y</i> = (219 + <i>x</i>) / (444 + <i>x</i>)<br /><br />where <i>y</i> represents Korver's three-point shooting percentage and&nbsp;<i>x</i> represents each new attempt (which is always made). In other words, each new attempt raises his number of attempts beyond the current 444 and each new make raises his number of makes beyond the current 219. By how many attempts (and makes) must <i>x</i> rise to bring <i>y</i> to .500? One can type an equation, such as the one above, into Google, which will automatically generate a plot. Here are the resulting plots for Korver in all three shooting categories (you may click on the graphic to enlarge it).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sz8ri7bQjHk/VS65Zh9An_I/AAAAAAAAC5U/mKPClCyhvqs/s1600/kyle%2Bkorver%2B50_50_90.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sz8ri7bQjHk/VS65Zh9An_I/AAAAAAAAC5U/mKPClCyhvqs/s1600/kyle%2Bkorver%2B50_50_90.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></div><br />We see in the upper-right graph that Korver's three-point shooting line (blue upward trend) crosses the .500 threshold (black horizontal line) at six attempts. Six more made threes (again, without a miss) would give him 225, which would be half the new number of attempts, 450. Alternatively, Korver could hit the .500 threshold with a 7-of-8 performance behind the arc, resulting in (226/452). As I said, each miss progressively increases the number of shots he would need to make. &nbsp;Making 6-of-6 on threes is not terribly likely. Given that his three-point percentage is very close to 50%, let's imagine coin-tossing. Korver would have to flip heads six times in a row, which has a probability of 1-in-64.<br /><br />Finishing at .900 on free throws should be relatively easy. Korver just needs to make at least three free throws without a miss. If he's not perfect, he would have to make 12 of 13 to reach .900 (117/130).<br /><br />Lastly, we have overall field-goal percentage. To reach .500, Korver would need a 16-for-16 night (resulting in 305/610) or, alternatively, 17-of-18 (306/612).<br /><br />Clearly, Korver has his work cut out for him. At the college level, Christian Laettner's performance against Kentucky in the 1992 regional final comes to mind; not only did he hit the turnaround buzzer-beater, but he also hit <a href="http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/statistics/Games/19920328Duke.html" target="_blank">10-of-10 from the floor</a> and 10-of-10 from the stripe. Also, Bill Walton hit on <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/sports/year_in_sports/03.26b.html" target="_blank">21-of-22 field goals</a> in the 1973 final. That's the kind of game Korver's looking at.<br /><br /><b><span style="color: red;">UPDATE:</span></b> Korver went 3-of-6 from the floor at Chicago to finish the regular season with a .487 field-goal percentage; 2-of-5 on three-pointers for a final percentage of .492 beyond the arc; and 1-of-1 from the free-throw line to finish at .898 from the stripe (<a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400579509" target="_blank">box score</a>; <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/2011/kyle-korver" target="_blank">final regular-season statistics</a>).alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-51163540240774940782015-01-31T09:36:00.001-08:002015-01-31T09:53:47.733-08:00Serena Beats Sharapova 16th Straight Time, Wins Australian Open (with Updated Grand Slam/Age Chart)Serena Williams defeated Maria Sharapova, 6-3, 7-6, in the Australian Open final, giving Williams her <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serena_Williams" target="_blank">19th Grand Slam singles title</a> and <a href="http://espn.go.com/tennis/aus15/story/_/id/12257701/serena-williams-wins-6th-australian-open" target="_blank">16th straight win</a> over Sharapova in their head-to-head rivalry.<br /><br />Back in 2013, on the eve of the French Open women's singles final (which Williams won, to increase her winning streak at the time to 31 matches), I created a <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2013/06/serena-williamss-tennis-winning-streak.html" target="_blank">chart of Grand Slam singles titles by age</a> for several women's greats of the modern era: Serena and Venus Williams, Steffi Graf, Martina Navratilova, Chris Evert, Billie Jean King, and Margaret Court. The point I wanted to illustrate was that Williams appeared to be holding her own in Grand Slam tournaments beyond the age at which other greats began falling off.<br /><br />Below, I have updated the chart. Williams's success in her thirties has continued, with her just-achieved Australian Open title being her third Grand Slam trophy beyond the 2013 French Open. You may click on the chart to enlarge it.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cxxU60CeG6A/VM0QzRH1tKI/AAAAAAAAC0s/j16-oioaZW0/s1600/updated%2Bs%2Bwilliams%2B2015%2Baus.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cxxU60CeG6A/VM0QzRH1tKI/AAAAAAAAC0s/j16-oioaZW0/s1600/updated%2Bs%2Bwilliams%2B2015%2Baus.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><i>(I also corrected the ages for a few of Martina Navratilova's Grand Slam titles. Because the Australian Open has shifted in the past between November-December at the end of the year and January at the beginning of the year, seeing the year associated with the Australian Open is ambiguous at first glance. Examining the dates of each year's Australian Open during Navratilova's career, relative to her birthday, yielded some slight modifications as reflected above.)</i>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-81674505393898278762015-01-24T12:42:00.004-08:002015-01-24T12:45:24.190-08:00Greatest Shooting Quarter in NBA History: Klay ThompsonThe Golden State Warriors' Klay Thompson last night had what I think can fairly be called the greatest single quarter of NBA shooting <i>ever</i>, as his team routed the visiting Sacramento Kings, 126-101. It's not just that Thompson&nbsp;<a href="http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=400578943" target="_blank">set the Association record</a> for most points in a quarter -- 37 in the third -- but <i>how</i> he did it.<br /><br />He simply didn't miss. He hit all 9 three-pointers he tried, all 4 two-pointers, and both free throws. Based on this <a href="http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/playbyplay?gameId=400578943&amp;period=3" target="_blank">play-by-play sheet</a> of the third quarter, I've graphed Thompson's shot sequence according to time left in the third quarter. You may click on the graphic to enlarge it.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MtsbkGFVxRc/VMP8gZhJ0eI/AAAAAAAAC0c/6YPOOzM-t-s/s1600/klay%2Bthompson.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MtsbkGFVxRc/VMP8gZhJ0eI/AAAAAAAAC0c/6YPOOzM-t-s/s1600/klay%2Bthompson.jpg" height="212" width="400" /></a></div><br />As can be seen, Thompson didn't even begin his third-quarter scoring until 2:16 had elapsed (i.e., the 9:44 mark). Further, he scored 29 of the 37 points from the 6:03 mark in. Twenty-nine points in (roughly) six minutes would translate to 232 points in a 48-minute game! For the record, Thompson scored "only" 52 points on the night (including 11-of-15 from behind the arc). There were two short stretches (5:31, 4:56, and 4:18; 1:06 and 0:35) in which he was hitting a three approximately every 30 seconds.<br /><br />Thompson entered the game with a three-point shooting percentage of .444 this season. The probability of a 9-for-9 quarter shooting threes would be .444 raised to the 9th power, which is .0007 or 7-in-10,000. However, we are asking this question after the fact, knowing the probability is likely to be very low. Using this <a href="http://vassarstats.net/binomialX.html" target="_blank">binomial calculator</a>, we can also examine the less extreme (although still post hoc) question of how likely a .444 shooter would be to hit 11 (or more) out of 15 three-point attempts in a game. The answer is .02 or 1-in-50.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-74677975346345838812015-01-13T18:29:00.000-08:002015-01-13T19:00:43.600-08:00Hot-Shooting Guards Lead NC St. Over Previously Unbeaten DukeOne of the biggest upsets of the current men's college basketball season occurred this past Sunday, as unranked North Carolina State handed No. 2 Duke <a href="http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400587912" target="_blank">its first loss</a>, 87-75. Key to the Wolfpack's win was the three-point shooting of two upper-year guards, senior Ralston Turner and junior Trevor Lacey.<br /><br />Turner hit three three-pointers in a little over two minutes (between 16:58-14:48) during the second half, to help NC State maintain a narrow lead. A bit later, Lacey hit a couple of threes and a two during a 22-5 run as the Wolfpack expanded a 50-48 lead to a 72-53 advantage (<a href="http://espn.go.com/ncb/playbyplay?gameId=400587912" target="_blank">play-by-play sheet</a>). Duke rallied some, but couldn't catch up.<br /><br />Turner ended up 4-of-7 from behind the arc during the day, whereas Lacey went 5-of-7. As it turns out, these guards' long-range success has been building over the past month. In the following graph, I show Turner and Lacey's three-point shooting percentage game-by-game this season, with the larger basketball data-points (orange for Turner, red for Lacey) reflecting greater numbers of three-point attempts in a given game. You may click on the graph to enlarge it.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vCWsRfKonoE/VLXMoIKxEmI/AAAAAAAACz8/uWG3UuEehMU/s1600/nc%2Bst.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vCWsRfKonoE/VLXMoIKxEmI/AAAAAAAACz8/uWG3UuEehMU/s1600/nc%2Bst.jpg" height="288" width="400" /></a></div><br />The graph should be read from bottom to top, in thin slices. In the Wolfpack's season-opener against Jackson State (JSU), for example, Turner shot 1-of-4 (.250) from behind the arc, whereas Lacey shot 3-of-5 (.600).<br /><br />If you're an NC State fan, what you want to see are large-sized basketball icons high up in the graph, meaning that a player launches a lot of three-point attempts and <i>makes a healthy share of them</i>. Turner has indeed provided several large orange basketballs, shown in the shaded area representing shooting percentages between .400-.700. Against Tennessee, in fact, Turner made eight treys on an amazing 17 attempts, a .471 clip (click here for Turner's <a href="http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/51040/ralston-turner" target="_blank">game-by-game log</a>).<br /><br />Lacey doesn't necessarily shoot many threes in a game -- indicated by the relative dearth of large red basketballs -- but when he fires from downtown, he frequently hits. In six of his last eight games, he has shot .500 or better from behind the arc (click here for Lacey's <a href="http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/57174/trevor-lacey" target="_blank">game-by-game log</a>).<br /><br />Two additional trends are worth noting. First, for the past month, cold-shooting games have been very rare for Turner and Lacey (see the blue notation on the graph). Second, the two players' shooting accuracy from game to game appears to be correlated. The good news is that, if one of them is shooting well in a game, the other tends to be, also. The bad news, however, is that if one is shooting poorly, so is the other likely to be. For those with some statistical training, the Pearson correlation between Turner and Lacey's three-point shooting percentage is .45 (where 1.00 is the maximum).<br /><br />It's possible a sort of "contagion" operates between Turner and Lacey, where one player's shooting level in a game (good or bad) rubs off on the other. Another possible explanation is that good defensive teams shut down both Turner and Lacey, and bad ones let both of them shoot the deep ball well.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0