Putin's Strategy Of Covert War In Eastern Ukraine May Be Blowing Up In His Face

Russia's President
Vladimir Putin looks on during the 6th BRICS Summit in Fortaleza
July 15, 2014.REUTERS/Nacho
Doce

The missile that may have brought down a Malaysian Airlines plane
was likely fired from inside Ukrainian territory, possibly by
militants affiliated with the Donetsk People's Republic. But the
militia's force composition, and the likely provenance of the
weaponry that may have brought down the plane, both point
elsewhere.

For the past several months, the rebellion in eastern Ukraine has
resembled the Russian doctrine of tainaya voina or
"mysterious war" — the practice of using a combination of
proxies, covert agents, and misinformation to achieve strategic
objectives without the use of conventional force.

If it turns out that pro-Russian militants shot down MH17,
the incident could trigger significant blowback from from a
strategy that Moscow has pursued in eastern Ukraine for
months.

In early June, the Vostok Battalion, a
Russian intelligence-linked paramilitary group founded in the
restive autonomous
republic of Chechnya, became a major player in eastern
Ukraine. The professional and battle-hardened force attempted to
impose discipline on pro-Moscow Ukrainian irregulars, leading to
brief bouts of infighting within the rebel ranks. Vostok was
likely sent by Russian intelligence to organize and focus the
pro-Moscow rebellion in a number of flashpoint cities, including
Donetsk.

As Mark Galeotti of New York University
told Business Insider in June, Vostok "[wasn't] there
to replace the militias in eastern Ukraine. They're there to be
the force that essentially controls them in Moscow's
name."

The leader of the
Donestk People's Republic is a Russian military intelligence
agent who holds Russian citizenship. But within the Donestk
People's Republic, the rank and file might have been more foreign
in character than has previously been assumed. In a
long interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, an
Armenian volunteer for the DPR estimated that 80% of the fighters
in Eastern Ukraine were from outside of the country.

This is anecdotal, but the low estimate is still around
20%, according to RFE/RL — which means that at best, a fifth of
anti-Kiev militants in eastern Ukraine were allowed to transit
through Russian territory.

Russia's provided more than just bodies and leadership.
Earlier this week,
conventional-grade grad rocket batteries fired into Ukraine
from Russian territory. And during a speech to the United Nations
Security Council on Friday morning, U.S. ambassador to the U.N.
Samantha Power stated that Moscow has "recently transported
Soviet-era tanks and artillery to the separatists."

On July 14, three days before MH17 was likely shot down,
the U.S. State Department spokesperson offered what now reads
like an ominous
preview of the plane's destruction. Without going into
specific detail, State claimed that Russia had established a
large staging area for the transport of heavy weaponry —
including anti-aircraft systems — to its Ukrainian
proxies:

Russia
continues to accumulate significant amounts of equipment at a
deployment site in southwest Russia. This equipment includes
tanks of a type no longer used by the Russian military, as well
as armored vehicles, multiple rocket launchers, artillery, and
air defense systems. Russia has roughly doubled the number of
tanks, armored vehicles, and rocket launchers at this site. More
advanced air defense systems have also arrived at this
site.

This is of a piece with Russian strategic doctrine. Through
supporting irregular forces, sending in its intelligence agents
and skilled proxies, and spreading misinformation, Russia has
been able to remove its conventional forces from the Ukrainian
border and maintain just enough deniability to be able to
continue supporting separatists in the region without provoking
an escalation it didn't want.