4 2008 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC Telephone: Internet: All rights reserved. This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. R I G H T S A N D P E R M I S S I O N S The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone ; fax ; Internet: ii

7 Preface The need to mainstream climate policy into development goals is well-recognized within the World Bank, as well as at the national level and among other donor agencies. Individually and collectively, international multilateral and bilateral organizations have responded to the increasing challenge of climate change with an agenda for action to integrate climate concerns into the mainstream of developmental policy making and poverty-reduction initiatives. All have defined major new initiatives designed to help their clients mitigate the impact of past and future development programs on climate change. In addition, they have intensified joint efforts on both climate change mitigation and adaptation. Actions needed to adapt to climate change and to limit GHGs cover many sectors of the economy (agriculture, water, coastal areas, forests, biodiversity and ecosystems, health, transport and infrastructure investment). Since all of these are affected by most development programs, one can expect the choice of policies for development to have implications for adaptation policy. More widely, macroeconomic and sectoral policies also have potential impacts on emissions of GHGs and on the nature of development in a country, which in turn has implications on the costs of adaptation. It is important for donors and their country partners to be aware of these linkages. The purpose of this study is to draw on all available material in order to provide targeted guidance on the linkages between the design of development programs and the objectives of adapting to climate change and limiting emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The report should be useful to practitioners in development organizations (multilateral and bilateral institutions) and countries for a better understanding of the implications of development programs and policies on climate change, as well as the implications of climate policies on budgetary and related operations. v

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9 Acknowledgments The study was prepared by a team comprising of Muthukumara Mani (Task Team Leader), Anil Markandya, and Viju Ipe. The authors would like to acknowledge comments and inputs received from Aziz Bouzaher, Kirk Hamilton, Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay, Juan C. Belausteguigoitia, Dan Biller, Richard Damania, and a number of participants of a seminar on the topic held on July 30, 2008, at the World Bank in Washington, DC. 1 This study is a product of the Policy and Economics Team in the Environment Department led by Kirk Hamilton. Editorial support was provided by Alexandra Sears, James Cantrell and Robert Livernash. The work was conducted under the overall supervision of Sector Managers Laura Tlaiye and Michele De Nevers. The authors are solely responsible for the views expressed here, which do not necessarily represent the opinion of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. The generous support received from the Bank Netherlands Partnership Program (BNPP) is gratefully acknowledged. 1 Muthukumara Mani is a Senior Environmental Economist at the Social, Environment and Water Resource Management Unit of the South Asia Region. Anil Markandya (Professor, University of Bath) and Viju Ipe are consultants to the Environment Department of the World Bank. vii

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11 Introduction There is now a strong consensus that climate change presents an urgent challenge to the well-being of all countries, particularly the poorest countries and the poorest people in them. Even if efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) are successful, it is no longer possible to avoid some degree of global warming and climate change. The primary direct effects of climate change are an increase in droughts and floods, more seasonal peaks in river flow, and a higher probability of stronger tropical storms. The poorest countries and communities are likely to suffer the most because of their geographical location, low incomes, and low institutional capacity, as well as their greater reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture. Climate action regarding adaptation is therefore increasingly important in most developing countries. Adaptation is understood to include efforts to adjust to ongoing and potential effects of climate change. Building up resilience to increasing climate variability is the most significant climate challenge facing these countries. Although poor developing countries contribute the least to GHG emissions, some development programs such as expanding access to clean energy (including through regional projects), as well as financing improved land management and forest management programs can offer true win-win opportunities in terms of both supporting good development and reducing global GHG emissions. Given the inherent costs involved, adaptation should be pursued not as an end in itself, but as a means to meet the development objectives of countries. Countries will need to factor climate risks into their development planning and consider the range of interventions that will increase their resilience to climate change. In low-income countries, a primary focus on growth and poverty reduction can increase climate resilience by helping these countries diversify their economies. In 2007 the World Bank undertook a review of how climate change impacts poor developing countries. The review highlighted the strong links between poverty and climate vulnerability and emphasized the need for increased resources to assist countries (a) with the higher costs of climate risk management and asset rehabilitation due to more frequent and severe natural disasters, and (b) to adapt within their core development strategies. 1 Lessons from Bank experience also demonstrate that mitigation of and adaptation to climate change can have significant synergies with local development priorities and development of new business opportunities. In an address at the United Nations Conference in Bali in December 2007, World Bank President Robert Zoellick noted that climate change is a development, economic and investment challenge. It offers an opportunity for social and economic transformation that can lead to an inclusive sustainable globalization. That is why climate change is a critical pillar of the development agenda. 2 In 2008 the Bank issued the Strategic Framework for Climate Change and Development. The framework seeks to integrate climate change and development challenges without compromising growth and poverty reduction efforts through its country operations, including policy dialogue, lending, and analytical work in client countries, and through its regional and global operations. The purpose of this report is to draw on all available material in order to provide targeted guidance on the linkages between the design of development programs and the objectives of adapting to climate change and limiting emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Donor-supported poverty reduction strategy credits (PRSCs) are already playing an increasing role in 1 World Bank IDA and Climate Change: Making Climate Action Work For Development. Other important contributions that have come out recently include the IPCC Fourth Assessment report (2007), the UNFCCC report on investment flows (2007), the International Energy Agency s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2007, and the forthcoming Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development s (OECD) Environmental Outlook Robert Zoellick, United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali, Indonesia, December ix

12 supporting prioritized policy actions in implementing the agenda of social and structural policy and institutional reform in a number of countries. Mainstreaming of the climate agenda is still in the early stages and is mainly driven by the UNFCCC through preparation of National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPA) and associated prioritization of adaptation projects. 3 The countries are also increasingly integrating climate change adaptation strategies into the development and implementation of PRSCs. The financial implications of actions to address climate change in developing countries remain highly uncertain. The estimated total cost of adaptation range from $4 to $109 billion a year, with a significant portion coming from public funds. Such high levels of expenditure cannot be made outside a macroeconomic framework that recognizes their importance, evaluates them appropriately, and includes them in the medium-term expenditure framework. Objective and Audience The report provides practical guidance to development practitioners on systematically analyzing the direct and indirect effects of development policy reforms on climate change, as well as how climate change affects the choice of instruments used to promote sustainable development. The specific objectives are to: Offer guidance on general measures that need to be taken in each country to ensure that climate change considerations are mainstreamed into development policies and programs. Offer guidance on how macroeconomic and sectoral development policies impact on the objectives of mitigating GHGs and on adapting to climate change. Provide examples of important pathways by which climate change can impact on the effectiveness of development policy lending and what these pathways imply for the design of such policy. 3 For further details see items/2719.php. Accessed 9 th November Provide examples of policy making at the national level that successfully mainstreams climate considerations. The report should be useful to practitioners in development organizations (multilateral and bilateral institutions) and countries for a better understanding of the implications of development programs and policies on climate change, as well as the implications of climate policies on budgetary and related operations. Key Policies and Programs Addressed Development programs are associated with a whole array of policies such as macroeconomic policy reforms, fiscal policies, and specific policies in key sectors such as agriculture, energy, transport, health, and education. In some cases, the operation may deal directly with reforms in certain climate sensitive sectors such as energy, transport, water and sanitation, agriculture, and forestry. In such cases, there is an obvious need for a careful analysis of impacts of these policies on emissions of GHGs, as well as on the effectiveness of measures taken to adapt to climate change. In other cases, such as public sector reform and governance, the potential for likely significant impacts on the environment and natural resources is much less, but even here there may be a need to include a climate overlay on the reforms being proposed. From an analytical standpoint, more difficult cases are those where the effect is indirect. Trade, public expenditure management, and privatization reforms could have a significant bearing on GHG emissions on natural resources, with implications for the climate impacts of these changes on individuals. For example, reducing export tariffs on agriculture products may increase exports of certain crops with a high demand for water and low drought tolerance. As climate impacts start to bite, farmers who have adopted these crops will be negatively affected. Switching to other crops, which is what the climate adaptation policy is promoting, will become more costly. These examples underscore the need for the two programs to work in harmony. x

13 Structure of the Report The report organizes the different tools available for analysis of the effects of each policy, identifies the environmental priorities, and then provides guidance on selection and use of the tools given the time and resource constraints. The report is designed to be concise and user-friendly. It consists of three specific modules. The first module looks at the main climate impacts that can be expected in developing countries. It briefly describes the measures being taken to adapt to the expected impacts and provides some estimates of the costs of these measures. The data and information are drawn from the latest IPCC report, as well as from reports and publications of national governments. 4 The second module identifies relevant transmission channels through which development programs could have an effect on GHG emissions and on the impacts of impending climate change on individuals. The development programs are divided into two groups: (1) macroeconomic reforms, including macroeconomic stability, the investment climate, governance, social protection, and competition; and (2) sectoral reforms, including agriculture, forestry, and mining. The analysis identifies two classes of possible actions to respond to these linkages: (1) actions that need to be taken to minimize any negative impact of the development programs; and (2) actions that can be taken to enhance the impact of the program. The first is based on the principle of doing as little harm as possible to climate adaptation and mitigation, 5 and the second on the principle of being pro-active and using the development program framework to make mitigation and adaptation polices more effective. The third module describes the measures being introduced to reduce GHGs and to adapt to climate change in developing countries. They should be borne in mind when deciding what new policies or measures should be introduced or what existing polices strengthened to ensure that climate policy and development policies are reinforcing. The aim is to inform those preparing the programs of what is going on in the climate arena, how it may affect the measures they wish to implement and specific policies that may be implemented. 4 IPCC Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bonn: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 5 In the climate literature the term mitigation is used to refer to measures to reduce the emissions of GHGs. xi

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15 Module I This module provides some background information on the likely impacts of climate change in developing countries and on possible measures that need to be taken to address the ongoing and forthcoming changes. As the 4 th IPCC report notes, Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. The main impacts of climate change are summarized in this report. This module provides a brief description of these impacts and of the measures that can be taken to adapt to them. It also reviews measures by which developing countries can reduce their GHG emissions in a cost-effective way. Impacts of Climate Change in Developing Countries The IPCC report identifies a large number of areas of impact. Summarized below are those where there are likely to be significant consequences for the development of a country: Freshwater resources Average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase by percent at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, but decrease by percent over some dry areas at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics. Over the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water availability in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world s people currently live. Ecosystems The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded in this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (such as flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, and ocean acidification), and other global change drivers (such as land use change, pollution, and overexploitation of resources). Due to increases in global average temperature exceeding 1.5 to 2.5 C and concomitant atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, there are projected to be major changes in ecosystem structure and function, species ecological interactions, and species geographic ranges, with predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem goods and services such as water and food supply. Food, fiber, and forest products Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid- to high latitudes for local mean temperature increases of up to 1 3 C depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond that in some regions. At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases (1 2 C), which would increase the risk of hunger. Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1 3 C, but above this it is projected to decrease. Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent. At the same time, heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood risk. Increases in the frequency of droughts and floods are projected to affect local crop production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes. However, at all latitudes 1

16 adaptations such as altered cultivars and planting times allow cereal yields to be maintained at or above baseline yields for modest warming. Globally, commercial timber productivity rises modestly with climate change in the short- to-medium term, with large regional variability around the global trend. Regional changes in the distribution and production of particular fish species are expected due to continued warming, with adverse effects projected for aquaculture and fisheries. Coastal systems and low-lying areas Coasts are projected to be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, due to climate change and sea-level rise. The effect will be exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures on coastal areas. Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity. Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 3 C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatization by corals. Coastal wetlands, including salt marshes and mangroves, are projected to be negatively affected by sea-level rise, especially where they are constrained on their landward side or starved of sediment. By the 2080s, many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise. Those densely populated and low-lying areas where adaptive capacity is relatively low, and which already face other challenges such as tropical storms or local coastal subsidence, are especially at risk. The numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas of Asia and Africa. Small islands are especially vulnerable. Industry, settlements, and society The most vulnerable industries, settlements, and societies are generally those in coastal and river flood plains, those whose economies are closely linked with climate-sensitive resources, and those in areas prone to extreme weather events, especially where rapid urbanization is occurring. Where extreme weather events become more intense and/or more frequent, the economic and social costs of those events will increase. These increases will be substantial in the areas most directly affected. Climate change impacts spread from directly impacted areas and sectors to other areas and sectors through extensive and complex linkages. Health Projected climate-change-related exposures are likely to affect the health status of millions of people, particularly those with low adaptive capacity, through: Increases in malnutrition and consequent disorders, with implications for child growth and development Increased deaths, disease, and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires, and droughts An increased burden of diarrheal disease Increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to higher concentrations of ground-level ozone related to climate change Altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors. Climate change is expected to have some mixed effects, such as a decrease or increase in the range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. 2

17 Studies in temperate areas have shown that climate change is projected to bring some benefits, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure. Overall, it is expected that these benefits will be outweighed by the negative health effects of rising temperatures worldwide, especially in developing countries. There are four observations about these impacts. The first is that the impacts in the low latitudes, where most of the developing countries are located, are largely negative. Second, while the balance of positive and negative health impacts will vary from one location to another and will alter over time as temperatures continue to rise, poor communities will be especially vulnerable, particularly those concentrated in high-risk areas. They tend to have more limited adaptive capacities and are more dependent on climate-sensitive resources such as local water and food supplies. It follows from this that a reduction in poverty will reduce the vulnerability to climate change. Thus development and adaptation go hand in hand. Third, the observations clearly note an increase in negative impacts as GHG concentrations increase and as global mean temperatures rise. Whereas for small increases in temperatures of around 1 to 2 C there are even some positive effects, these disappear once temperature increases reach 4 to 5 C and above. Fourth, there remains a great deal of uncertainty about these impacts, especially at the local level. The IPCC report is at pains to reflect this by stating varying degrees of confidence in its statements. From a policy perspective, this uncertainty translates into the need to avoid extreme events through the adoption of measures that reflect an aversion to risk. Africa and South Asia are the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change because of multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity. Some adaptation to current climate variability is already taking place; however, this may be insufficient for future changes in climate. The report estimates that between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to climate change by Coupled with increased demand, this will adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate water-related problems. Agricultural production, including access to food in many African countries and regions, is projected to be severely compromised by climate variability and change. The area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons, and yield potential particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas are expected to decrease. This would further adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition in the continent. In some countries, yields from rainfed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 percent by Local food supplies are also projected to be negatively affected by decreasing fisheries resources in large lakes due to rising water temperatures, which may be exacerbated by continued overfishing. Toward the end of the 21st century, projected sea-level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations. The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5 to10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Mangroves and coral reefs are projected to be further degraded, with additional consequences for fisheries and tourism. Adaptation Measures to the Impacts of Climate Change The IPCC refers to adaptation practices as actual adjustments, or changes in decision environments, which might ultimately enhance resilience or reduce vulnerability to observed or expected changes in climate. Investment in coastal protection infrastructure to reduce vulnerability to storm surges and anticipated sea-level rise is an example of actual adjustments. The development of climate risk-screening guidelines, which might make downstream development projects more resilient to climate risks, is an example of changes in the policy environment. Another important classification of measures is with respect to the time dimension. Adaptation to climate risks can be viewed at three levels: (1) responses to current variability (which also reflect learning from past adaptations to historical climates); (2) observed 3

18 medium and long-term trends in climate; and (3) anticipatory planning in response to model-based scenarios of long-term climate change. In the context of development programs, the cases of greatest interest are when there is a conflict between policies that promote development and those that protect individuals against the impacts of climate change. For example, activities such as shrimp farming and conversion of coastal mangroves may promote rural livelihoods, but they could also exacerbate vulnerability to sea-level rise. Adaptation measures can be further classified into proactive and reactive or ex-post. Examples of proactive measures include crop and livelihood diversification, seasonal climate forecasting, community-based disaster risk reduction, famine early warning systems, insurance, water storage, supplementary irrigation and so on. Examples of reactive or ex-post measures include emergency response, disaster recovery, and migration. Recent reviews indicate that a wait-and see or reactive approach is often inefficient and could be particularly unsuccessful in addressing irreversible damages such as species extinction or unrecoverable ecosystem damages that may result from climate change. Table 1.1 provides examples of some adaptation measures implemented by a range of actors, including individuals, communities, governments, and the private sector. Such measures involve a mix of institutional and behavioral responses, the use of technologies, and the design of climate-resilient infrastructure. They are typically undertaken in response to multiple risks, and often as part of existing processes or programs, such as livelihood enhancement, water resource management, and drought relief. Public expenditures are an important part of the adaptation strategy, although they are by no means the only part of the strategy. While climate change has generated a great deal of discussion, relatively few adaptation measure have been implemented to date. measures being taken to adapt infrastructure investment to account for future climate change. This is particularly the case for long-lived infrastructure that may be exposed to climate change impacts over its lifespan, or where business-as-usual activities would irreversibly constrain future adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Examples are mostly from developed countries and include investments in roads, railway lines (to account for subsidence from climate change), bridges (to account for sea-level rise), and the like. More of this should be done, however, in developing countries. An example from the developing world, the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, is an exception. The railway crosses the Tibetan Plateau, including about 1,000 kilometers that is at least 13,000 feet (4,000 meters) above sea level. Five-hundred kilometers of the railway rests on permafrost, with roughly half of it high-temperature permafrost, which is only 1 to 2 C below freezing. The railway line would affect the permafrost layer, which will thaw as a result of rising temperatures, in turn affecting the stability of the line. To reduce these risks, design engineers have put in place a combination of insulation and cooling systems to minimize the amount of heat absorbed by the permafrost. In addition to specific infrastructure projects, there are now also examples where climate change scenarios are being considered in more comprehensive risk management policies and plans. Efforts are under way to integrate adaptation to current and future climate within the environmental impact assessment (EIA) procedures of several countries in the Caribbean. Within OECD countries, a number of other policy initiatives have also been put in place that account for future climate change, particularly sea-level rise. In the Netherlands, for example, the Technical Advisory Committee on Water Defence recommended the design of new engineering works with a long lifetime, such as storm surge barriers and dams, to take a 50-cm sea-level rise into account. Such examples from developing countries are rare, although there are exceptions (see the case of Bangladesh in Table 1.1). In addition to the examples in Table 1.1, which are largely though not entirely reactive, there are now There are also examples of consideration of climate change as part of comprehensive risk-management 4

19 strategies at the city, regional, and national levels. France, Finland, and the United Kingdom have developed national strategies and frameworks to adapt to climate change. At the city level, meanwhile, climate change scenarios are being considered in a number of developed countries. Again, there are fewer examples from the developing world of this kind of risk management strategy. In deciding on which adaptation policies to introduce, policy makers need to look at their costs and benefits. This is difficult, given the major uncertainties referred to above, and implies the need to adopt the precautionary principle of taking action to prevent serious negative effects from climate change. Most work has been done on sea-level rise, where the estimates are relatively straightforward. Studies Table 1.1 Adaptation initiatives in selected developing countries Region/ Country Africa Climate Stress Adaptation Practices Egypt Sea-level rise Adoption of National Climate Change Action Plan integrating climate change concerns into national policies; adoption of law 4/94 requiring EIA for project approval and regulating setback distances for coastal infrastructure; installation of hard structures in areas vulnerable to coastal erosion Sudan Drought Expanded use of traditional rainwater harvesting and water conserving techniques; building of shelter belts and wind breaks to improve resilience of rangelands; monitoring of the number of grazing animals and trees cut; set-up of revolving credit funds Botswana Drought National government programs to re-create employment options after drought; capacity building of local authorities; assistance to small subsistence farmers to increase crop production Asia Bangladesh Sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion Consideration of climate change in the National Water Management Plan; building of flow regulators in coastal embankments; use of alternative crops and low-tech water filters Philippines Drought, floods Adjustment of silvicultural treatment schedules to suit climate variations; shift to drought-resistant crops; use of shallow tubewells; rotation method of irrigation during water shortages; construction of water impounding basins; construction of fire lines and controlled burning; adoption of soil and water conservation measures for upland farming Nepal Small Islands (Somoa, Tonga, Cook Islands) Glacial lake expansion Sea-level rise Drought, saltwater intrusion The Tsho Rolpa risk reduction project in Nepal is an example of adaptation measures being implemented to address the creeping threat of glacial lake outburst flooding as a result of rising temperatures, potentially causing serious damage to a dam and to livelihoods downstream. Capacity building for shoreline defense system design; introduction of participatory risk assessment; provision of grants to strengthen coastal resilience and rehabilitation of infrastructures; construction of cyclone-resistant housing units; retrofit of buildings to improved hazard standards; review of building codes; reforestation of mangroves Rainwater harvesting; leakage reduction; hydroponic farming; bank loans allowing for purchase of rainwater storage tanks Source: from IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report Final Draft for Government Review Chapter 17: Assessment of Adaptation Practices, Options, Constraints and Capacity. 5

20 indicate that, based on such a benefit-cost assessment, almost all the cities in the OECD countries and about 50 to 80 percent of beaches and open coasts should be protected. In the case of developing countries, an analysis for some selected Asian states shows the costs of coastal protection as a percentage of GDP. In general the figures are low, amounting to 1 to 2 percent of GDP, depending on which climate scenario considered. In the case of a couple of island states, however, the percentage rises to more than 13 (IPCC WGII, 2007). 7 These cost-benefit calculations are sensitive to the assumed values of the land and structures that would be affected. There are a few studies of the costs and benefits of agricultural adaptation for developing countries. 8 The available results indicate that there are large inter and intra-regional variations. Here are some examples: In the case of Gambia, Njie and others (2006) found that yields of millet would increase and inter-annual variability decrease through adaptation measures such as improving cultivars, irrigation, and improved crop fertilization. The net benefits of these measures, however (that is, the benefits less the costs), were not always positive. In general, the net benefits were higher for crop fertilization than for the other measures. The authors note the high level of uncertainty, especially as one goes further out in time. In Mali, Butt and others (2005) estimate that adaptation through trade, through changes in crop mix, and through the development of heat-resistant cultivars could offset 90 to 107 percent of the welfare losses arising from climate change. Thus the benefits can exceed the costs or come close to it. For many countries located in tropical regions, the potential benefits of low-cost adaptation measures such as changes in planting dates, crop mixes, and cultivars do not turn out to be sufficient to offset the significant climate change damages (Rosenzweig and Parry, 1994; Butt and others 2005). These analyses need to be interpreted with some caution. First, there is a high level of uncertainty about the business-as-usual scenario. In particular, not taking action could result in high socially contingent costs, such as when populations migrate and social changes lead to conflict. By and large, these have not been accounted for. Including them would turn the calculations more in favor of some adaptation action, although that action may not best take the form of maintaining agriculture in the affected regions. Second, where there are risks, the benefits should include a premium associated with any actions that reduce this risk. In general, such a premium has not been added. Third, most of the benefits of adaptation go to poor households, while the costs are incurred to individuals with a higher average income. This transfer, although not generally accounted for, should also be considered. In addition to the national-level studies, there are overall estimates of the costs of adaptation to climate change at the global level. Table 1.2 summarizes the main studies, which range from $4 billion to $109 billion a year for developing countries and $44 billion to $166 billion for all countries. The breakdown between public and private sectors is not provided. Notwithstanding the uncertainty over costs, it is clear these costs could be a significant share of the budget of developing countries in the years to come and hence deserve to be taken seriously. 7 The countries covered in the study were Micronesia, Palau, Tuvalu, Marshall Islands, Mozambique, French Polynesia, Guinea-Bissau, Nauru, Guyana, New Caledonia, Papua New Guinea, Kiribati, Maldives, Vietnam, and Cambodia. 8 There is virtually nothing on the costs of adapting energy systems at the country level. Overall, IPCC AR4 summarized the situation by noting that the literature on adaptation costs and benefits remains quite limited and fragmented (Adger and others 2007, in IPCC WGII 2007). It reported that there 6

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