UPDATE: Alison Lundergan Grimes canceled her first public appearance in Northern Kentucky as a Senate candidate today due to a ‘personal emergency,’ the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce announced Friday morning.

She had been scheduled to address the Northern Kentucky Chamber at the Newport Aquarium at noon.

The nature of the personal emergency wasn’t disclosed.

State Rep. Arnold Simpson, D-Covington, will speak at the luncheon on Grimes’ behalf.

Grimes’ spokesman Bradford Queen couldn’t comment on the nature of the emergency but said they are working to reschedule the event as soon as possible.

The Enquirer will update this story as more details emerge.

EARLIER STORY: Officially, the NKY chamber’s speaker Friday will be talking about her duties as secretary of state. Unofficially, this is the first public appearance in Northern Kentucky by the Democrat who hopes to unseat Mitch McConnnell – and, polls show, she may have a good chance.

Alison Lundergan Grimes led McConnell by two percentage points in a poll released last week by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, up from an April poll where she trailed McConnell by four points.

She also out-raised McConnell over the summer, $2.5 million to $2.3 million.

Virginia Johnson, a Democrat from Kenton County, thinks Grimes can make headway in Republican-laden Northern Kentucky and perhaps become the first Democrat to represent Kentucky in the Senate since Wendell Ford in 1999.

“It’s a tough battle up here,” Johnson said. “I just think, if she comes up here enough and makes herself known, people will get to know her and realize how sincere she is.”

McConnell’s campaign has criticized her relative silence on the shutdown and Affordable Care Act. She has told some news outlets she wouldn’t want to repeal the law but is troubled by some parts of the act and would seek to fix some mandates on businesses.

Some Democrats see it as a good strategy. Rep. John Yarmuth, a Democrat from Louisville, told the Lexington Herald-Leader it was “smart politics” since she didn’t vote for or against health care reform.

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Many believe she should let the fight between McConnell and his Republican primary challenger Matt Bevin, of Louisville, play out.

“Why would she want to get in the middle of a family feud?” said Nathan Smith, a Democrat from Fort Mitchell.

Candidate Grimes wages battle for the bucks

Many Democrats see Grimes coming into Northern Kentucky with momentum after she outraised McConnell for the last quarter.

Grimes in September held one of her first big fundraisers at Smith’s Fort Mitchell home, where 350 people attended.

“Her family is from Maysville ... a lot of her support is there,” Smith said. “There is a lot of her family that lives in the Northern Kentucky area. She has a great understanding of our needs.”

Grimes’ fundraising, however, left Republicans unimpressed. Kentucky Republican Party spokeswoman Kelsey Cooper responded with a statement shortly after Grimes released her fundraising totals this month that the total should have been much more – considering she had fundraisers around the country.

“It’s absolutely baffling that Democrats are excited about ‘part-time’ Grimes’ $2.5 million first quarter fundraising haul,” Cooper said in a statement. “After making fundraising her main priority, ditching Kentucky for far-off destinations ‘where the money trees are,’ and offending the coal and gun industries for her liberal donors, she’s still incredibly behind.”

Spin cuts both ways on government shutdown

Both supporters of McConnell and Grimes have spun the recent federal shutdown to their advantage.

Voters will more likely blame McConnell for the shutdown rather than giving him credit for ending it, said Col Owens, chairman of the Kenton County Democratic Party. “If he deserves an ounce of credit for that, he deserves a ton of discredit for getting us there in the first place,” Owens said.

Republicans who support McConnell see his role in resolving the shutdown as a positive. It destroyed Grimes’ narrative that McConnell is an obstructionist, said Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist and former McConnell adviser.

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“I think when you prove yourself to be the guy who is essential at finding a way to solve problems, that is a good thing,” Jennings said. “I think it undercuts Grimes campaign argument, her essential argument that McConnell obstructs everyone.”

Tea party Republicans in Kentucky weren’t happy with McConnell’s role in ending the shutdown and, as they see it, relenting on funding health care reform. Whether this will have an impact on next year’s election, especially among Republicans who didn’t think highly of McConnell to begin with, remains unknown.

John Kemper, a tea party activist from Lexington involved with the United Kentucky Tea Party, believes that, as more of the Affordable Care Act gets implemented, the more angry voters will get.

“I think that was the wrong thing to do,” Kemper said. “I don’t know where people got the idea Congress was a rubber stamp for things passed in previous Congress.”

McConnell, however, could face future challenges, said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. Another potential government shutdown looms in January. McConnell has promised no shutdowns over health care reform again. If he can’t deliver on that promise, he will suffer consequences at the ballot box, Sabato said.

“They essentially scheduled the same debate for January and February,” Sabato said. “After having gotten hit in the head with a 2-by-4, you would think the Republican Party wouldn’t ask for it again, but with this party, you just don’t know.”

If it happens again, “then it’s clear to everyone it’s a pattern,” he said.

Sabato also questioned McConnell’s ability to avert a second shutdown if tea party lawmakers such as Sen. Ted Cruz and others once again lead an effort to hold out on government funding.

“He realizes how stupid this was,” Sabato said. “It will go down in history as one of the biggest mistakes either party has made. But how’s he going to control Ted Cruz? How’s he going to control the House tea party?” ⬛