Toby Harnden was the Daily Telegraph's US Editor, based in Washington DC, from 2006 to 2011. Click here for Toby's website. Follow him on Twitter here @tobyharnden and on Facebook here. He is the author of the bestselling book Dead Men Risen: The Welsh Guards and the Defining Story Britain's War in Afghanistan.

Rick Perry is now the Republican frontrunner – but he needs to raise his game

Another fascinating Republican debate. You could tell by the way that all the candidates queued up to attack him that Rick Perry is clearly regarded by the others as the undisputed frontrunner. They've been reading the polls as well as the tea (party) leaves. Towards the end, he looked slightly stunned by the combined (though hardly coordinated) assault. Welcome to the big time, Governor.

So did the debate change things? Strangely, very possibly not. Here are some points to take away:

1. Perry flagged after an hour or so (as he did, to a lesser extent, at the Reagan Library) and seemed at times like he was trying to wing it. He needs to prepare better for these things.

2. Perry took some big lumps on the HPV vaccine issue and seemed a little taken aback by that. It's a fairly obscure issue and he's admitted mistakes but he can't just bat it away by saying he believes in life.

3. Romney was well-prepared, slick, careful and repeated faithfully what his advisers have been coaching him to say (I know this because most of what he said tonight I have heard almost verbatim from his aides). Message discipline is good but there's a slightly soulless element to his performances – he still has a way to go to get GOP voters to like and, more importantly, trust him.

4. Although Perry's answers towards the end were halting he still has a commanding presence on stage. He looks into the camera. He holds himself like a president. Politics is visceral and the way Perry carries himself counts for a lot.

5. Perry was certainly on the defensive at times. But he refused to back down on some of his most "controversial" (the term applied when most of the press disagrees) utterances, most notably the suggestion that Ben Bernanke, chairman of the fed, would almost be guilty of treason if he printed more money before the next election. My gut feeling is that in 2012 the GOP faithful do not want someone who panders (as Romney is often perceived to do) so Perry's truth-telling, say-it-how-it-is manner is, again, worth something.

6. Michelle Bachmann was subdued at the outset but went after Perry with a vengeance on "crony capitalism" and the HPV virus, virtually accusing Perry of personally administering a "government injection" to young girls. She all but said Perry was guilty of being corrupt ("the drug company gave thousands of dollars in political donations to the governor, and this is just flat-out wrong"), forcing Perry to say, somewhat clumsily: "If you're saying I can be bought for $5,000, I'm offended." (cue lots of jokes about what price he might be bought for). Bachmann had slumped in the polls and a lot of people have been writing her off but tonight she showed she's got some real fight left in her.

7. Perry's answer on Afghanistan was limp, disappointing and borderline incoherent. I was astonished that he echoed Jon Huntsman's "troops out" sentiments. The GOP primary will not turn on Afghanistan. It's unlikely the general election will either. But if Perry really is to be commander-in-chief he needs to do better than this:

Well, I agree with Governor Huntsman when we talk about it's time to bring our young men and women home as soon and as – and – and – and obviously safely as we can. But it's also really important for us to continue to have a presence there. And I think that the entire conversation about how do we deliver our aid to those countries – and is it best spent with a hundred thousand military who have their target on their back in Afghanistan? I don't think so at this particular point in time. I think the best way for us to be able to impact that country is to make a transition to where that country's military is going to be taking care of their people. Bring our young men and women home, and continue to help them build the infrastructure that they need, whether it's schools for young women like yourself or otherwise.

8. Jon Huntsman is one of the most bizarre GOP candidates of modern times. Of course, the elite press just loves him ('Why can't all Republicans be like Jon?' they wail) but they don't get to vote in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. refrring to Romney's book, Huntsman said: "I don't know if that was written by Kurt Cobain or not." Cobain had a song called "All Apologies" (I know this because I googled it) but the quip fell flat, like Huntsman's other attempts at humour tonight.

9. There's a long way to go in this thing. That's a statement of the obvious but it's worth remembering. Perry has the time and poll breathing space to grow. Romney's done more than 20 national debates at this level and has improved immeasurably. This was Perry's second.

10. Perry certainly has vulnerabilites but I'm not sure that Social Security and Bernanke-bashing are high up among them. The Tea Party drove the 2010 GOP victory in the mid-terms, despite all the vilification their followers had to endure. Since then, the mood in the country in even angrier and more anxious. Being "fed up" (to use the title of Perry's book) with the "Ponzi scheme" of Social Security, and bashing the Fed and monetary policy may be closer to the sweet spot of the GOP primary electorate than establishment Republicans believe.

Bottom line: this was not a great night for Rick Perry. But it was by no means a disaster. He is the frontrunner. There is a long way to go but in some respects this contest is his to lose.

I've just realised, by the way, that I haven't yet mentioned President Barack Obama in this post. Come to think of it, the candidates hardly did either. Perhaps they should all remedy that next time.