He's a-forming in the Atlantic and headed west and -- to be honest -- we don't like the looks of him.

Our weather expert, Jeff Balke, is out of the office right now -- and there's your first warning sign. Ducking and running in August? You can't tell us he doesn't sense doom.

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Before you get all wrapped up in the scientific mumbo, not to mention jumbo, of high pressure, wind shear and surface temps -- the witch-doctor chicken entrails of modern "meteorology" -- let's examine four additional factors that show Ernesto is barrelling right up the Ship Channel before the month is out.

4. Those models shown on the map above? They're headed everywhere but Houston. This far out, you want every arrow, every track, every cone of uncertainty to be pointed dead-on towards your front door. That guarantees the actual storm will come nowhere close to you when it hits.

3. The curve to the north/keep pushing west conundrum. The storm will eventually curve to the north, we bet, but when it does is all a matter of timing. Relying on some atmospheric vagaries to keep it plowing along to the west without making that northern turn until it's well into Mexico is just too much to ask.

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