Looking for a Lefty

Brian Walton

11/30/2006

The St. Louis Cardinals want a left-handed starter in their 2007 rotation. But, who might it be and how could he be acquired?

My sources tell me that the St. Louis Cardinals badly want to have a left-handed pitcher as a part of their 2007
starting rotation. This isn't a big stretch to believe, as it is a hallmark of a
balanced staff anywhere and a consistent La Russa-Duncan desire, as well.

Now, I am not talking about 1998,
a time when the Cardinals had three lefties open the season in their five-man
rotation (Kent Mercker, Darren Oliver and Donovan Osborne), but more often than
not in the years before and since, they've had their lefty ready to go every fifth
day.

The last two seasons, that role
has been played by now-free agent Mark Mulder. The big left-hander has elicited
a lot of interest around baseball despite the recovery from his recent shoulder
surgery expecting to carry well into the 2007 regular season.

Whether or not the Cardinals offer
arbitration to Mulder on Friday, odds remain better than 50-50 that he will be
wearing another uniform come 2007.

For those who think Chris Narveson
has a good chance to make the rotation next season, you may be too
optimistic. Righthanders Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright (if he is returned to
starting) will experience enough growing pains for one manager and pitching
coach to stomach as it is.

As one would expect, the Cardinals
have reportedly already been working on left-handed starter alternatives. The
purpose of this piece is to widen the nets to see if we can surmise who
Cardinals general manager Walt Jocketty might be
considering.

While what left-handed suspicions
that have been voiced elsewhere have mostly been about free agents, I remain
less convinced the Cardinals can compete there. With the amounts involved in
each free agent signing more absurd than the ones preceding it, I am not sure
the Cards can land one of the top lefties on the open market. And, to be honest,
I am not sure I want them to overspend by the amount necessary to do
so.

Top free agent
lefties

In addition to Mulder, the top
four left-handed starting pitchers on the market are Andy Pettitte, Barry Zito,
Tom Glavine and Ted Lilly. Three of the four, except Lilly (Type B), are Type A
free agents, meaning the signing team will likely forfeit a first or second
round draft pick as compensation.

Each of these players' situations
has its own idiosyncrasies, making the free agent unlikely to become a Cardinal.

Zito, a former member of
Oakland's vaunted "Big Three" like
Mulder, is expected by many to break the bank this off-season. Agent Scott Boras
is expected to extract a minimum of $15 million per year on a multi-year deal
for Zito, perhaps from the New York Mets or another deep-pocketed team. Along
with righty Jason Schmidt, Zito is expected to define the market for the rest of
the free-agent arms.

Pettitte, late of the Houston Astros, has been afflicted with the same indecision disease that his close buddy
Roger Clemens has suffered from in recent years. Will he come back or will he
not? Fact is that according to the Elias Rankings used by MLB, Pettitte is the
top-ranked free agent at any position across the entire game this off-season. It
won't be Zito money, but it will be big.

Tom Glavine says he wants to
either come back to the Mets or return to his original club, the Atlanta Braves.
Turning 41 before next season and just ten wins away from 300 in his illustrious
career, Glavine deserves to do just that and retire to a likely Hall-of-Fame
bid.

Ted Lilly, formerly of
Toronto, seems a bit like Chris Carpenter
was a few years back. Folks know he is there, but have not yet seen a
demonstration of excellence to excite them. However, in today's crazy market,
contract estimates for the career 59-58, 4.60 ERA pitcher are in the four years,
$40 million range already.

OK, so if Walt can't (or won't)
sign a portsider, from where will he get one?

The trade
market

The most likely source is via
trade. With most of the rest of his 2007 roster locked up and money still to
spend, Jocketty could go after a big-bucks free-agent righty and trade for his
lefty. His primary bargaining chits may be a bullpen arm or two plus disgruntled
outfielder Juan Encarnacion, whose contract with two years remaining has become
a relative bargain.

So, where do we begin? Well, my
crack research assistant Woody identified 31 left-handed starters from across
the game who are not free agents.

Sadly,
most of the lefties are removed from consideration, but there are a few decent
names remaining. Let's look into each of this last group further.

Mark Buehrle, Chicago White
Sox – All things
considered, the Missouri native would
definitely be choice number one. The 27-year-old is part of a Sox
organization looking to move a starting pitcher. Buehrle's 2007 deal is for $9.5
million, but he will be free-agent eligible next fall.

On the downside, Buehrle is coming
off a rough 2006 during which he posted his first-ever losing record (12-13) and
worst ERA (4.99) by a substantial margin. Especially troubling was his 36 home
runs allowed. Buehrle has been known for his command and durability, but has
having pitched almost 230 innings per season on average over the last six years
taken its toll?

Mike Maroth,
Detroit Tigers – Slated
to make $2.95 million in 2007 and will also be under control for 2008. The
innings-eating lefty only made nine starts due to injury in 2006 and might not
have a place in the Tigers' rotation next year. Despite a career 45-60, 4.78 ERA
mark for some bad Detroit
teams, the 29-year-old is very intriguing possibility, especially if
Detroit
could get interested in some of the Cardinals' relief arms.

Horacio Ramirez,
Atlanta Braves – Earned $2.2 million in 2006 and
may be making
the Braves very nervous right now over how much he could fetch in an arbitration
hearing come February. Would remain under control for 2008
season, too. The
Braves and Cards have traded with each other before and the Bravos might be in
the market for bullpen help.

The 27-year-old first burst onto
the scene as a 23-year-old in 2003, when he won 12 games and lost just four.
However, after posting a stellar 2.28 ERA in the early going in 2004, he missed
four months due to shoulder tendinitis. While he won 11 games and pitched over
200 innings in 2005, the sinkerball specialist had three trips to the disabled
list in 2006. First, he had a recurrence of a hamstring injury, then his season
ended after 76 innings due to a finger tendon problem.

Eric Milton,
Cincinnati Reds – When last a free agent two
years ago, the Cardinals were reportedly after the now-31-year-old, who has one
year to go on his current deal. Pitching consistently well and remaining healthy
for the Reds has been a problem for Milton the past two years as it was
during his time in Minnesota and
Philadelphia previously. I have no inclination
the Reds are considering trading Milton and he has $9 million due on his
contract for 2007. Let's hope it doesn't come to this.

So, there you have it. Either
Jocketty tries to sign an expensive free-agent, or he blasts a decent
middle-of-the-rotation starter loose via trade. I am betting on the latter.