What Matters More: 3.5% Growth or 10.2% Unemployment?

By

Peter Brown

Nov 11, 2009 12:20 pm ET

Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, is a former White House correspondent with two decades of experience covering Washington government and politics. Click here for Mr. Brown’s full bio.

Whether the American people -– and their elected representatives -– understand that one puzzle piece doesn’t make a picture is a key question now that the unemployment rate has crossed the bright red line into double digits.

Jobless numbers are considered a trailing economic indicator, but there is a potential they will become the controlling story of the economy, even though other statistics show early signs of a recovery.

That’s not to underestimate the woe unemployment can cause for a family and for the country. But history tells us that other measurements are much better at predicting a society’s economic health.

Double-digit joblessness leading the news for many months to come could create an atmosphere that results in public and political change that might not be the best thing for nurturing the nascent economic recovery. Other than the geeks with the slide rules, most Americans consider the economy still declining.

Simply put, will the headlines generated by the 10.2% unemployment rate and the angst it will create in the public’s mind convince Americans that they need to pull back on their spending because the economy – and job security – are worsening?…