College Football Gambling: Navy in tough spot following AAC title game loss

If you're wondering why Navy dropped from -10 to -6 for this weekend's rivalry game vs. Army, go read this article.

"The AAC championship was great and all, but this is the game you look forward to playing here," Navy offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper said. "To miss that game, after both those guys were having such great seasons, it's tough. I feel for those two guys."

"I think for sure it gives us an advantage," Army linebacker Alex Aukerman said. "We've been preparing for them before Thanksgiving break. They've had to focus on two more teams. I definitely think it's something we should utilize for our advantage."

"I've thought about this many a night because the Army-Navy Game should be a standalone game, and we'd like to be in the conference championship game," Niumatalolo said. "Any way you cut it, it just doesn't work out great for us. Obviously, we would have loved to have won that [AAC championship] game, but even if you did, you still have to ramp it up one more time. It's kind of weird. It's like Alabama playing in the SEC championship and having to play Auburn the next week."

Let me start with the basic concept here. Yes, Detroit got their starting point guard Reggie Jackson back on the floor for their last two games after Jackson missed the first six weeks of the season due to injury. But while getting Jackson back running the point is a good thing for Stan Van Gundy’s squad in the long term, in the short term it does NOT make them a better squad. For at least the next few games, while Jackson gets re-acclimated with his teammates, the Pistons base power rating number must be lowered, not raised. Yet the markets have moved in the opposite direction.

Van Gundy, following Jackson’s first game back on the floor, a loss to Orlando: “We were terrible defensively, terrible. We didn’t put enough into it to win the game. They deserved to win. I think most nights we bring a decent effort. But we’ve been just too up and down defensively. We looked really slow tonight.”

Jackson’s quote: “It's going to take some time to get acclimated with my teammates again, but (the knee) felt good. I just wished we came out with a win. I felt like I was behind others in game shape and little aspects like that. I think in defensive coverage and rotations, I was a little rusty, and then just finding guys a little bit quicker (on offense).”

It’s no sure thing that Jackson is going to suit up at all this evening, still awaiting clearance to play on the second night of back-to-backs after the Pistons blew a 17 point lead against the Bulls last night, but rallied in the fourth to win and cover. If Jackson doesn’t play, it’ll be Ish Smith back as the starter with Beno Udrih coming off the bench. But anytime we’re talking about point guard transitions on an NBA team playing on the second night of back-to-backs off a win, I’m probably going to look to the other side.

And there’s a LOT to like about Charlotte right now. The Hornets were real moneymakers for my clients and I last year, finishing with the #6 seed in the East. They are exactly what I look for out of squads primed to retain their pointspread value, a smaller market squad without name brand superstars that doesn’t get many TV games to attract a public following.

And Charlotte is in a great spot tonight – they’re rested, they’ve been getting practices in during a relatively friendly scheduling stretch, and they’ve got something to prove against the Pistons. Due to a quirky schedule, Detroit played here just last week, in a LOUSY spot for Charlotte, and they rolled the Hornets 112-89, Charlotte’s worst home loss of the season.

With big man Marvin Williams back in the lineup, Charlotte head coach Steve Clifford sure sounds confident moving forward: "That's why you'll see teams in these first 20 games not do as well (and then) will take off, because they'll develop that mentality that you need. Every team has a different intensity level, and they have to find it before they can play well consistently. Sometimes it takes 20 games, sometimes 15, sometimes longer." Clifford, talking about the win at Dallas earlier in the week: “The thing I liked is even when things weren't going our way on the road, they were very locked in and positive with each other in the huddles. That's the way it has to be."

Charlotte’s a bet-on team right now. I have no hesitation laying the points with the Hornets tonight!

The Minnesota Wild wrap up a five-game road trip tonight as they head into Toronto to hook up with the Maple Leafs. Both clubs have been trending downward as of late with the Leafs losing their last two game as part of a quick three-game road swing. Expanding even further, Toronto has now dropped five of their last its last contests overall. The Wild have lost four of their last five road games with the lone victory coming in a 2-1 overtime decision at Edmonton. Minnesota's inconsistent special teams has once again been on display during this trip with their penalty-killing unit yielding four goals while being held scoreless on the man-advantage. This after they netted six power play goals over their previous four games. While Toronto has lost five consecutive meetings in the series, including a tight 3-2 loss in St. Paul back on October 20, the Leafs have been stout at home with wins in eight of their 11 contests at the Air Canada Centre this season. In addition, Toronto has cashed in six of their last eight games as a favorite while Minnesota is just 2-5 as an underdog. Price is right to fire on the short home favorite tonight.

Missouri State -9 at Southeast Missouri O/U 144.5
Recommendation: Over

Southeast Missouri is your typical up-tempo, no defense low mid-major. The Redhawks appear a bit improved over last season's 5-24 disaster with three wins already over DI competition. Of 2015's 27 games against DI teams, on only seven occasions did SEMO net better than a point per possession. This season, they've done in four times and have a shot to do it again on their home floor this evening. Missouri State is another team that looks much improved on the offensive end. They hung 96 against Alabama A&M and 91 against Jacksonville State to kick off the season. Not exactly stiff competition but SEMO isn't either as the Redhawks rank near the bottom nationally in a number of defensive categories. The Bears saw more resistance in their last three games against DePaul, North Dakota State and Air Force but still averaged a respectable 67.7 ppg with all three games at 68 possessions or less. There's also an injury to be aware with Missouri State's Obediah Church unlikely to play due to an bum knee. He's a strong "under" player with limited offensive ability and a big impact on the defensive end. Despite playing around 20 minutes per game, Church averages over five rebounds to go with 17 blocks. He didn't suit up against Air Force and the Falcons shot 56% from the floor and outrebounded the Bears by 13. Pace should be in the low-to-mid 70's with the over in play.

Not an ideal matchup for the Texas Longhorns as they travel to Ann Arbor to face Michigan tonight. These two squads hooked up last season in the Bahamas with the Wolverines winning 78-72. UT's starting lineup in the game featured four seniors and junior -- all of which are no longer on the team. This year's edition is littered with underclassmen who will likely struggle against Michigan's methodical brand of basketball. We've already witnessed multiple instances of UT's youth being exposed. Against veteran and fundamentally sound teams Northwestern, Colorado, and UT-Arlington, the Longhorns lost by margins of 19, 14, and 11. Those three squads, who aren't overly athletic, outrebounded Texas by a combined margin of 122-98. Texas fired back last Friday with a 77-68 win over Alabama; a game that was deadlocked heading into the final five minutes before UT pulled away. With such a young squad, one that has struggled on the offensive end (27% 3-pt, 65% FT), forcing turnovers and thus creating high percentage looks would go a long way. In those four games, the turnover battle was nearly dead even. Now they go on the road and face a team that prides itself on taking care of the basketball and keeping opposing teams out of transition. The Wolverines already have two impressive blowout wins over Marquette and SMU. They ran into a buzzsaw against South Carolina -- the Gamecocks boast one of the best stop units in the country. And Virginia Tech got the better of the Wolverines thanks to a 21-7 free throw attempt advantage. Not many if any advantages for the road side here as we fire with the home chalk.

NBA Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers

Kudos to the Lakers for overachieving thus far but things are beginning to slip away some due to key injuries. Their recent four-game road trip produced a 1-3 ATS mark and if we push back to November 18, the number becomes 3-7 ATS. That date is significant because it was their first game without starting point guard D’Angelo Russell. From there, LA has dealt with a three-game span in which they were without starting forward Julius Randle due to a hip injury. And three games ago they lost starting guard Nick Young for a month (strained calf). Jose Calderon is also out leaving sixth man Lou Williams as the team's main scorer. Clarkson, Williams and Marcelo Huertas can divide up the minutes at point guard but the cluster of injuries to the backcourt can be preyed upon by opponents. Utah should be able to not only exploit the backcourt but also the small forward spot. Lakers starter Luol Deng and rookie Brandon Graham figure to have their hand full with top scorer Gordon Heyward. LA has no other small forwards since Larry Nance Jr. is nursing a knee injury which is just another shorthanded problem. Utah doesn’t enter this one at full strength either because of George Hill’s absence but they are far more stable for this contest than the Lakers. Head coach Luke Walton said a few days ago that they’d just have to be creative with their lineup combinations and losing Calderon makes things that more complicated. Four of their last five losses have been by 17+ which indicates that they can lose touch on the scoreboard easily, especially with how fast they play pace-wise. Expect the rested Jazz team to come in and use their reliable defense as well as matchup and depth advantages to cover this short number.

Up 24-9 and seemingly on their way to an impressive road win at Oakland, the Buffalo Bills melted down in a big way as the Raiders closed the game with four unanswered touchdowns. The end result was a 38-24 loss which dropped the Bills to 6-6 and put the team in the position of likely needing to “win out” in order to reach the playoffs. As for Sunday’s game, Buffalo led by 15 points midway through the third quarter behind a bend-but-don’t-break defense that held Oakland to three field goals. But the defense wilted and Oakland started moving the football with ease as Derek Carr hit on multiple big plays to Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. Buffalo’s 24-9 lead turned into a 30-24 deficit with the nail in the coffin coming when Tyrod Taylor was hit as he threw the football from his own end zone and the ball was picked off giving Oakland instant field position en route to yet another touchdown. The Bills are now two games behind the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. Their schedule to finish the season is manageable with three home games in a row as they host Pittsburgh this week followed by Cleveland and Miami. They close out the regular season on the road against the NY Jets. Despite the loss, the team in theory should be able to rally behind the favorable remaining slate. However, there’s also a chance the defeat lingers and Buffalo hasn’t exactly been a hot commodity in the betting markets with just one pointspread cover in its last six tries. Their inability to live up to market expectations coupled with the potential to “pack in the season” suggests this team remain “bet against” rather than “bet on.”

The Carolina Panthers dropped to 4-8 after their 40-7 blowout loss at Seattle on Sunday. If Carolina wasn’t already out of the playoff chase, they most assuredly are now. The Panthers have been dealt significant injuries along the offensive line which only has one healthy Week 1 starter. The defense lost its leader in Luke Kuechly a few weeks ago and they’ve allowed 75 points in two games without him on the field. It was a very quiet, pale faced sideline in the second half of the loss to the Seahawks and every bettor should question whether or not this team has any fight left. This is a squad that has been to the playoffs three straight times including last year’s Super Bowl run. Now, at 4-8, you have a high exception team essentially playing for exercise. And let's not forget that prior to Sunday's game, the Panthers felt they still had a shot at the postseason. Out of the bye, they beat Arizona and fired right back with a road win at Los Angeles. They outplayed Kansas City but gave up the game winning field goal as time experience. And then on a short week, beat division rival New Orleans by three and suffered a close 35-32 loss at Oakland the following week. All told, Carolina played four straight games decided by less than a field goal and then obviously fell flat in a big way against the Seahawks. Physically and emotionally spent, it's hard to envision much in the way of effort the remainder of the way. And three of their next four opponents -- Washington, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay -- are all currently in the thick of the playoff race. Proceed with serious caution with the Carolina Panthers.

College Football Handicapping: CRIS posts lines on CFB Playoff games

The college football bowl season is upon us with 41 games starting December 17 and concluding January 9 with the National Championship in Tampa. Most games have yet to be lined but CRIS posted sides on some of the more high-profile matchups. Let's take a quick look at the opening numbers and the early market moves.

NFL Gambling Update: SuperContest consensus goes 3-2 ATS in Week 13

Westgate SuperContest consensus plays finished 3-2 against the spread last week. That improved the YTD record to 26-34-2 ATS. The top weekly play is now 5-8 ATS. The least picked Sunday side improved to 8-5 ATS following New England's (-13.5) win and cover over hapless Los Angeles.

Great quarterbacks can only play like great quarterbacks when they have some semblance of an offensive line to protect them. When these two teams met twice last year, both offensive lines were in good shape. Russell Wilson and Cam Newton had a running game that balanced their downfield passing attack. Seattle scored 23 and 24 points in those two games, but they lost them both in SU fashion, cashing a pair of Over tickets in the process.

That was then. This is now. The Seahawks offensive line is in complete disarray right now. Three rookies started on that OL last week. They’ll be starting their fifth different combo of offensive linemen this week. Offensive coordinator Darrel Bevell, talking about the struggles of his OL:“We are just trying to find the best five guys. If it changes every week, then it changes every week.”

Russell Wilson got sacked six times last week, but it was far worse than that – Wilson was running for his life, quite literally, on just about every snap. That game marked the THIRD time this year in which the Seahawks offense didn’t reach the end zone even once. Expecting an offensive explosion from the Seahawks this week is an exercise in optimism!

But the Panthers offensive line is in even worse shape than the Seahawks OL! Four of their five starters have been officially ruled ‘Out’ for Sunday Night’s affair. Michael Oher didn’t make the trip out West. Ryan Kalil and Gino Gradkowski got hurt last week against the Raiders. The Panthers were forced to make a signing from the Cleveland Browns practice squad just to have enough healthy bodies here. I don’t care how you spin it -- you don’t want to be bringing guys in from the Browns practice squad in Week 13 at Seattle!

Ron Rivera knows what’s coming; talking about his offensive line woes: “It’s about as catastrophe as you can get. I mean, when you look at the losses we’ve had this year. But our coaches will coach up the guys that are available to us.” Against the Seahawks elite stop unit, playing in front of that 12th man crowd, expect Carolina, like Seattle, to struggle to score touchdowns.

The Montreal Canadiens have made an annual habit of great early season starts but then regress some once December hits. I think they may follow a similar pattern this season with a very difficult West Coast trip currently taking place. It started on Tuesday with a tough 2-1 loss to the Ducks. Montreal has to rely on strong defense and the tremendous goaltending by star Carey Price to win games but this squad is developing some bad habits in terms of allowing too many quality chances and shots. They’ve allowed 30+ shots on goal in three of their last four games and it’s tough to win hockey games when the opposition is shooting that much rubber at the net. And Montreal’s usually strong penalty killing unit has struggled more of late allowing a power play goal in three of their last five games. San Jose enters this game on a roll winning five of six including victories against quality foes such as Chicago and Los Angeles. The Sharks have seemingly rectified their home ice struggles from last season with an 8-3 mark entering tonight’s game. The Sharks are getting strong offensive contributions from Joe Thornton, Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski and Brent Burns who all have posted double-digits points. San Jose goalie Martin Jones has been stellar during this recent surge allowing a goal or less in four of his last five starts. Here is his head coach Peter DeBoer talking about Jones: “He’s one of the top goalies in the league. He’s just getting better. You’re just seeing the tip of what he’s capable of.” There is a solid under-the-radar betting angle in our favor here. Montreal is a woeful 0-9 in their last nine trips to San Jose and altogether the Canadiens are 0-7 in their last seven games on the road against the trifecta of California teams (San Jose, Anaheim and Los Angeles) since the start of the 2014-15 season. Those are trends worth riding tonight as I lay the moderate price with the home side.

Sportsmemo's College Football Every Game on the Board Betting Podcast 12-1-2016

Here is Sportsmemo's College Football Every Game on the Board Podcast for Week 14. Handicappers Ian Cameron and Drew Martin joined host Andrew Lange to break down this weekend's slate from a betting perspective.

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Oregon State Beavers at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Points could be at a premium tonight in Starkville as Oregon State and Mississippi State will each be without their top offensive weapons. Tres Tinkle is the only player on the Beavers with an offensive rating north of 100. He's out indefinitely with a wrist injury. Even with Tinkle on the floor, OSU's offense has been a mess with one of the nation's highest turnover rates (25.8%), lowest three-point percentages (26.4%), and less than a point per possession despite an ultra-soft schedule. Center Drew Eubanks now becomes Oregon State's top option as evident by the 21 shots he took in Monday's win over NAIA Southern Oregon. Two years ago, Oregon State was able to compete by slowing down the tempo and playing various zone defenses. I expect that head coach Wayne Tinkle will attempt to shorten games moving forward due to the lack of weapons and experience. Mississippi State played a bunch of high scoring affairs early on thanks to Quinndary Weatherspoon's 18.8 ppg. He's missed the last two games and the Bulldogs netted only 73 points on 74 possessions vs. Lehigh and 65 points on 66 possessions vs. 304th-ranked Northwestern State. A lot of the value on the under was taken out earlier today. I played under 134 but still feel 130.5 is playable in this particular matchup.

The Blazers have been a major early season disappointment. After finishing with the #5 seed in the West last year, Portland is just 9-10 SU, 6-13 ATS to open the new campaign. That includes six losses in their last eight games. Twice in their last three contests, the Blazers have allowed their opponent to score 130+ against them!

Less than 12 hours following the latest loss – at home against Houston on Sunday – head coach Terry Stotts had his team back on the practice floor. All Star point guard Damian Lillard: “This is the first time we've had a real practice in what seems like forever. It was good for us to try to sharpen up, (to have) coaches challenge us. It's to the point now where our pride has to kick in. We have to show how much we actually care about ... being better defensively."

Lillard continued: "We scored 125 points against Cleveland. That's a lot of points to score and not win a game. Right now, we're not getting it done on the defensive end. That's what it comes down to.”

Shooting guard Allen Crabbe concurred: “We keep preaching it, but it's getting old. At some point, it has to click. We keep telling ourselves we have to get better, but at some point, we have to get it going."

This is clearly a maximum intensity game for the home favorite. That’s not the case for the road underdog. Indiana is coming off back-to-back very satisfying home wins over the Clippers and Nets, holding LA to a season low 70 points in a 21 point blowout on Sunday. They’re playing without their All-Star, Paul George, and key role player CJ Miles, both listed as out for tonight. They don’t play again after tonight until Sunday in LA – they’ve got a much needed break on deck; rarely a good thing for an NBA underdog.

The kicker here is Indiana’s own defensive issues. The Pacers have had one consistent bugaboo in early season play – an inability to stop quicker guards from dribble penetration, getting good looks in the paint for themselves and their teammates. The likes of Monte Ellis, Ron Stuckey and Aaron Brooks are not defensive stoppers. The Blazers backcourt duo of Lillard and CJ McCollum are as good a dribble penetrating duo as you’ll find in the league. That gives the Blazers a matchup edge to go along with their situational edge in a game they’re primed to win by margin!

With James Blackmon upgraded to probable and NCAA Tournament revenge in effect, I'll take a look at supporting Indiana as a home underdog against North Carolina this evening. The Hoosiers aren't without deficiencies, most notably on the defensive end. A big key to tonight's game is how Indiana handles UNC on the interior. If Thomas Bryant gets into foul trouble, it really puts pressure on the Hoosiers' offense to perform at an ultra-high level. North Carolina looked impressive in its run to the Maui Invitational title. They however had a rather easy path by drawing Chaminade in the first round, and undersized Oklahoma State team in the semifinals and offensively challenged Wisconsin in the title game. Loaded with athletes and depth (no player is currently averaging more than 30 minutes per game) it was the perfect set up and they obviously took advantage. Now, UNC must go on the road to face a top-tier offense at a very tough venue. Last season, in their only two non-conference road games, North Carolina lost outright to Northern Iowa and Texas. In last year's tournament, the Tar Heels played nearly the perfect game against IU: 1.42 points per possession, 11-of-20 from three, and 26-of-33 from the charity stripe. Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige -- who have since graduated -- combined or 41 points. UNC closed that game as a -5 favorite and is now laying -4. They deserve to be favorites but I think there's enough value here to take a shot with the live home underdog in what should be an excellent, tightly contested game.

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