Comments on: Tasmanian election guide part one: Basshttp://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/02/28/tasmanian-election-guide-part-one-bass/
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on EarthSun, 02 Aug 2015 22:27:57 +0000hourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1By: Kevin Bonhamhttp://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/02/28/tasmanian-election-guide-part-one-bass/comment-page-1/#comment-1925259
Kevin BonhamTue, 04 Mar 2014 05:32:51 +0000http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=20039#comment-1925259I think those dumb enough to fall for it are already voting for PUP.I think those dumb enough to fall for it are already voting for PUP.
]]>By: Psephoshttp://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/02/28/tasmanian-election-guide-part-one-bass/comment-page-1/#comment-1924609
PsephosMon, 03 Mar 2014 07:19:29 +0000http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=20039#comment-1924609The point is not whether an Abbott scare campaign makes sense - it's whether it will have any effect. But I take the point that your answer is that it won't.The point is not whether an Abbott scare campaign makes sense – it’s whether it will have any effect. But I take the point that your answer is that it won’t.
]]>By: Kevin Bonhamhttp://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/02/28/tasmanian-election-guide-part-one-bass/comment-page-1/#comment-1924606
Kevin BonhamMon, 03 Mar 2014 07:10:06 +0000http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=20039#comment-1924606Labor's attack ads (http://www.youtube.com/user/TasmanianLaborParty) are mostly on the theme that Hodgman is supposedly like Campbell Newman. There's also one that tries to say he isn't really a player when it comes to standing up for Tasmania - off at the races etc, and one somewhere that has fun with Turnbull cutting him loose on the NBN.
The problem with the whole Abbott-based attack angle is that it doesn't really make sense that who is in power here will make a big difference. To the extent that these issues are federally controlled it won't matter who is Premier, and to the extent that they are state-controlled the Libs at state level will have no reason to commit political suicide by acquiescing to the feds. So I don't think there's that much in it as scare campaigns go.
I think their chances are slim whatever they do.Labor’s attack ads (http://www.youtube.com/user/TasmanianLaborParty) are mostly on the theme that Hodgman is supposedly like Campbell Newman. There’s also one that tries to say he isn’t really a player when it comes to standing up for Tasmania – off at the races etc, and one somewhere that has fun with Turnbull cutting him loose on the NBN.

The problem with the whole Abbott-based attack angle is that it doesn’t really make sense that who is in power here will make a big difference. To the extent that these issues are federally controlled it won’t matter who is Premier, and to the extent that they are state-controlled the Libs at state level will have no reason to commit political suicide by acquiescing to the feds. So I don’t think there’s that much in it as scare campaigns go.

I think their chances are slim whatever they do.

]]>By: Psephoshttp://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/02/28/tasmanian-election-guide-part-one-bass/comment-page-1/#comment-1924584
PsephosMon, 03 Mar 2014 06:42:53 +0000http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=20039#comment-1924584Pudding and KB, good answers, thanks.
I would assume given the national polling that Tasmanian Labor will be flogging as hard as it can the notion that a Hodgman government will expose Tasmania to the full horrors of the Abbott regime, with massive cuts to the social safety net and industry subsidies that keep Tasmania afloat. Is there any sign that this is having any effect? Do you believe there is any chance that it will have any effect? Or is Tasmanian Labor just too far gone for anything to save it at this stage?Pudding and KB, good answers, thanks.

I would assume given the national polling that Tasmanian Labor will be flogging as hard as it can the notion that a Hodgman government will expose Tasmania to the full horrors of the Abbott regime, with massive cuts to the social safety net and industry subsidies that keep Tasmania afloat. Is there any sign that this is having any effect? Do you believe there is any chance that it will have any effect? Or is Tasmanian Labor just too far gone for anything to save it at this stage?

]]>By: Kevin Bonhamhttp://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/02/28/tasmanian-election-guide-part-one-bass/comment-page-1/#comment-1924576
Kevin BonhamMon, 03 Mar 2014 06:26:31 +0000http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=20039#comment-1924576Someone flooded my Not-A-Poll with pro-Liberal votes so I've closed it for now.Someone flooded my Not-A-Poll with pro-Liberal votes so I’ve closed it for now.
]]>By: Kevin Bonhamhttp://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/02/28/tasmanian-election-guide-part-one-bass/comment-page-1/#comment-1924554
Kevin BonhamMon, 03 Mar 2014 05:00:27 +0000http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=20039#comment-1924554After 213 votes on my Not-A-Poll site readers predict a mean and median result of 13 seats for the Libs (this is also my current prediction); however 14 seats is the commonest individual prediction, and 69% predict a Liberal majority.After 213 votes on my Not-A-Poll site readers predict a mean and median result of 13 seats for the Libs (this is also my current prediction); however 14 seats is the commonest individual prediction, and 69% predict a Liberal majority.
]]>By: Kevin Bonhamhttp://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/02/28/tasmanian-election-guide-part-one-bass/comment-page-1/#comment-1924534
Kevin BonhamMon, 03 Mar 2014 04:32:47 +0000http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=20039#comment-1924534It seems from the info provided by MagicPudding that someone is being deemed functionally illiterate if they fail to get over the following bar (Level 3):
"Texts at this level are often dense or lengthy, and include continuous, non-continuous, mixed, or multiple pages of text. Understanding text and rhetorical structures become more central to successfully completing tasks, especially navigating complex digital texts. Tasks require the respondent to identify, interpret, or evaluate one or more pieces of information, and often require varying levels of inference. Many tasks require the respondent to construct meaning across larger chunks of text or perform multi-step operations in order to identify and formulate responses. Often tasks also demand that the respondent disregard irrelevant or inappropriate content to answer accurately. Competing information is often present, but it is not more prominent than the correct information."
I agree with MP that that's setting the bar a bit high, so my answer would be no.It seems from the info provided by MagicPudding that someone is being deemed functionally illiterate if they fail to get over the following bar (Level 3):

“Texts at this level are often dense or lengthy, and include continuous, non-continuous, mixed, or multiple pages of text. Understanding text and rhetorical structures become more central to successfully completing tasks, especially navigating complex digital texts. Tasks require the respondent to identify, interpret, or evaluate one or more pieces of information, and often require varying levels of inference. Many tasks require the respondent to construct meaning across larger chunks of text or perform multi-step operations in order to identify and formulate responses. Often tasks also demand that the respondent disregard irrelevant or inappropriate content to answer accurately. Competing information is often present, but it is not more prominent than the correct information.”

I agree with MP that that’s setting the bar a bit high, so my answer would be no.

]]>By: MagicPuddinghttp://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/02/28/tasmanian-election-guide-part-one-bass/comment-page-1/#comment-1924483
MagicPuddingMon, 03 Mar 2014 02:26:17 +0000http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=20039#comment-1924483Psephos @15
I worked as a collector in the last census, in a rural area. I did not encounter anyone who was unable to read the census material or understand notes I left them. There might have been a few who were assisted by friends or relatives, but certainly nothing like half. I think the bar for "functional literacy" has been set a bit high. I note that by the same measure, 44.4% of Australians are functionally illiterate. Tasmania is the worst state, but not by a huge margin - Tasmania 48.5%, SA 47.2% (Figures from ABS 4228.0 - Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies, Australia, 2011-2012).Psephos @15
I worked as a collector in the last census, in a rural area. I did not encounter anyone who was unable to read the census material or understand notes I left them. There might have been a few who were assisted by friends or relatives, but certainly nothing like half. I think the bar for “functional literacy” has been set a bit high. I note that by the same measure, 44.4% of Australians are functionally illiterate. Tasmania is the worst state, but not by a huge margin – Tasmania 48.5%, SA 47.2% (Figures from ABS 4228.0 – Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies, Australia, 2011-2012).
]]>By: Psephoshttp://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/02/28/tasmanian-election-guide-part-one-bass/comment-page-1/#comment-1923579
PsephosSat, 01 Mar 2014 12:49:29 +0000http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=20039#comment-1923579KB, do you believe that half the Tasmanian population is functionally illiterate?KB, do you believe that half the Tasmanian population is functionally illiterate?
]]>By: Kevin Bonhamhttp://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/02/28/tasmanian-election-guide-part-one-bass/comment-page-1/#comment-1923133
Kevin BonhamFri, 28 Feb 2014 23:40:15 +0000http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=20039#comment-1923133<a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/02/28/tasmanian-election-guide-part-one-bass//#comment-1922933" rel="nofollow">Psephos@12</a><blockquote><i>Maybe the problem is that Tasmania just doesn’t have enough talent to govern itself. Not surprising if half the population is functionally illiterate, as I read last week. What if we offered you ten seats in the Victorian Parliament and a Tasmanian team in the AFL?</i></blockquote>
I'd expect that to lead over time to the emergence of a vaguely unified Tasmania Party that would hold the balance of power in Victoria quite a lot of the time hence perpetuating the same "mendicant" status the move would be designed to avoid.
As for the start of the 25-seat parliament in 1998, Tony Rundle was so driven up the wall by having Christine Milne continually holding the proverbial gun to his head that he chose probable self-immolation in preference to having it continue. He did so reluctantly because it was Labor who most ardently wanted what we currently have and wouldn't take anything else. It was done the way it was to nobble the Greens but they were hardly innocent of blame given the way they were playing the game. That's probably why they were not able to generate any sympathy vote over it.
Oh, for those who want to play tipster my Not-A-Poll on the number of seats the Liberals will win is now open for business at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/03/not-poll-how-many-seats-will-liberals.html Curiously 12 is in the early lead but I find the early voters on my site tend to be lefties; the later voters not so.Psephos@12

Maybe the problem is that Tasmania just doesn’t have enough talent to govern itself. Not surprising if half the population is functionally illiterate, as I read last week. What if we offered you ten seats in the Victorian Parliament and a Tasmanian team in the AFL?

I’d expect that to lead over time to the emergence of a vaguely unified Tasmania Party that would hold the balance of power in Victoria quite a lot of the time hence perpetuating the same “mendicant” status the move would be designed to avoid.

As for the start of the 25-seat parliament in 1998, Tony Rundle was so driven up the wall by having Christine Milne continually holding the proverbial gun to his head that he chose probable self-immolation in preference to having it continue. He did so reluctantly because it was Labor who most ardently wanted what we currently have and wouldn’t take anything else. It was done the way it was to nobble the Greens but they were hardly innocent of blame given the way they were playing the game. That’s probably why they were not able to generate any sympathy vote over it.