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Both low- and high-income immigrants stay for a
relatively short time

Elevator pitch

The majority of immigrants stay only temporarily
in the host country. When many migrations are temporary, it is important to
know who leaves and who stays, and why. The key questions for the host
country are whether immigrants are net contributors to the welfare system
and whether migrants assimilate quickly. The key questions for the home
country are whether migrants return and who returns. The host country gains
when unsuccessful migrants leave, while the home country may gain when
successful migrants leave. Empirical evidence reveals that both
low-income-earning and high-income-earning migrants leave the host country
quite soon.

Key findings

Pros

Many migrants stay only temporarily.
Theoretically, the effect of higher wages on the duration of
migration is ambiguous, making it an empirical question.

Outmigration of low-income migrants
reduces the fiscal burden on the host economy.

Return of high-income migrants
reduces brain drain in the home country.

Income is a key factor affecting
return migration, in particular for labor migrants.

Cons

Labor market status affects both
wages and migration duration.

High-income immigrants leave faster
when they are target savers, but not as fast as low-income
migrants.

Outmigration of high-income migrants
is a fiscal loss to the host economy.

It is unclear whether migrants who
leave return home or move to another host country.

Income may not be the main
determinant of return migration, especially for non-labor
migrants.

Author's main message

Both unsuccessful and successful migrants to
developed countries stay a short time. Many leave when they become
unemployed, or earn no or low income. That implies that concern that host
countries are being burdened by welfare seekers is unfounded. The rapid
departure of successful migrants implies that concerns about brain drain
from developing to developed countries might be exaggerated, as many
high-income migrants leave soon. But this means that the host country loses
high-potential immigrants. Policy in the host country therefore needs to
focus not only on attracting the best immigrants but also on retaining
them.