I'm happy to be putting together my annual MLB team previews for the 3rd consecutive March. Each of the past seasons, I have learned from my experience that I have to make adjustments to my initial thoughts. My beef has been with all the experts just piggy backing off Baseball Prospectus to rank the teams to prospective finishes. Before the 2012 season, I tried to make a point that they are never completely correct. By doing so, I made some bolder predictions to try to stand out. I also noticed that the know it alls simply like to predict that the same teams that were successful last season will automatically be great the following year. While that is not necessarily true, there is no formula to pick that "sleeper team" for any given season. Doing this for the 3rd season, I've put together a better balance of logic and in the belief of the up and comer. Feel free to comment both on the outlook of each team I preview as well as where I rank them among the 30 in MLB. Even if the Jays would have signed RHP Ervin Santana, I am still down on this team this season. Does it have to do with the fact that I had much higher expectations for them last season? Perhaps. When trying to point out what went wrong last season, the expectations had a lot to do with it. But mainly, it was the starting pitching, which was lousy and missing Jose Reyes for two months after the team already had a slow start. It was the slow start, then the Reyes injury surrounded by starting pitching that was not that good. Because of that, the Blue Jays were never in the AL East race. They have followed up the disappointing season with a quiet offseason. However, bringing in Dioner Navarro should add a little production both offensively and defensively. Last year, he hit (.300, 13, 34 in 89 games for the Cubs) in place of JP Arencibia (.194, 21, 55 in 138 games and 148 strikeouts). Acquiring Erik Kratz from the Phillies gives them a legitimate backup and solves their catching woes of a season ago. With Reyes around and hopefully healthy all season, I think this team can surprise, but I am going in with a cautious approach. The question over whether this team will be any good will rest in their starting pitching. RA Dickey (14-13, 4.21. 34 starts) was better than his numbers and pitched as well as he did in 2012 during the second half of last season. Mark Buehrle (12-10, 4.15, 33) pitched like a workhorse who is on the decline. Neither were the issues, it was the rest of the rotation that gave them little to nothing. Josh Johnson, who came over in the same trade that brought the Jays Reyes, was terrible, going 2-8, 6.20 in 16 starts before getting hurt. He is off to San Diego. Brandon Morrow (2-3, 5.63, 10 starts) was counted on to be the number 2 starter in the rotation behind Dickey after pitching to a 2.94 ERA with 3 shutouts in 2012. Morrow will be back in the mix along with JA Happ (5-7, 4.56, 18), who has hit with a linedrive during a game last season. Drew Hutchison, who was 5-3, 4.60, 11 during the 2012, but missed the 2013 season, has the edge on being the 5th starter. Esmil Rogers, Todd Redmond and former top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek will all get a chance at some point this season. A dream scenario would see LHP Ricky Romero return to form. Once of the nicer guys in the game deserves to return where he was from 2009-2011, where he won a total of 42 games. Also keep an eye on top pitching prospect Aaron Sanchez, who may be up by seasons end. Casey Janssen (4-1, 2.56, 34 saves) is one of the more underrated closers in baseball and leads a very good bullpen. Sergio Santos (1-1, 1.75, 29 games) returns to anchor the 8th inning. Amazing that the Jays had two All Star relievers and neither were Janssen. Steve Delabar (5-5, 3.22 in 55 games) and Brett Cecil (5-1, 2.82, 60) made the AS team last year. The depth continues with Dustin McGowan (2.45 ERA in 25 games) coming off his arm injury and LHP Aaron Loup (4-6, 2.47, 64). Neil Wagner (2-4, 3.79, 36) and Rogers (5-9, 4.77 in 44 games, 20 starts) will round out what has the makings to be one of the better bullpens in all of baseball. Reyes (.296, 10, 37 in 93 games) stole just 15 bases but did get off to a great start before getting hurt. Having 3B Brett Lawrie (.254, 11, 46 in 107 games) and Melky Cabrera (.279, 3, 30 in 88 games) back from injury should make the lineup stronger. The same can be said about Jose Bautista (.259, 28, 73 in 118 games) and Colby Rasmus (.276, 22, 66 in 118 games). 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion (.272, 26, 104) and DH/1B Adam Lind (.288, 23, 67) had very good 2013 seasons. The team plans to go into the season with 2B Ryan Goins, who got a little experience last season, but will also consider Munenori Kawasaki and Chris Getz. The lineup I would go with is Reyes SS, Rasmus CF, Bautista RF, Encarnacion 1B, Lind DH, Navarro C, Lawrie 3B, Cabrera LF, Goins 2B. On the bench will be Moises Sierra, Anthony Gose, Kevin Pillar, Macier Izturis, Kratz, Josh Thole and maybe Dan Johnson- in on a minor league contract. Injuries destroyed the Blue Jays last season. It is tough to expect the same group of players who were hurt last year to all be healthy this season. Morrow and Happ can make the team forget about the starting pitching woes it had in 2013. I really like their bullpen and their offense can be dangerous if everybody stays healthy. I just don't expect health to fall out of the sky. Vegas has them at 79.5 which about where they should be predicted to be. I am taking the under, going 72-90, last place in the AL East. If I am correct, it is unlikely manager John Gibbons makes it through the season. I was wrong by picking them to take the division last year, maybe I will be incorrect taking them to finish in the basement.

Toronto Blue Jays RHP RA Dickey has completed his first season as a starting pitcher in Canada. Even though he has plenty of experience pitching in the American League in his days in Texas, Minnesota and Seattle, this was his first AL season after redefining himself as a knuckleball pitcher. If the question was openly asked, "RA Dickey's first season in Toronto, was it a success or failure?", many would answer that it was a failure before even looking over the season. For the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays, the season was a big disappointment. If the word "failure" was used, it would not be an over statement. The Blue Jays were picked to win the AL East by several people associated with the game. A team that already had star hitters Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion as well as proven pitchers Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero made the two well publicized trades with the Marlins and Mets. Adding Jose Reyes to the lineup and three successful starting pitchers, Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle expected to put the Blue Jays in a much better position to succeed than in the prior two seasons. A win today would put the Blue Jays at 75-87, a loss at 74-88. A team that seemed to be so much improved on paper will show no more than a two game improvement from last season. Dickey finished this season at 14-13, 4.21 while leading the AL with 34 games started. Though it is a far cry from his 20-6. 2.73 NL Cy Young season of a year ago, I would not consider Dickey a disappointment. I'm sure if RA was asked, he would discuss things he would have liked to do better. He did pitch his best game of the season in his third to last start against the Yankees. This could be considered the game that most damaged the Yankees playoff hopes. He pitched into the 8th inning in his last start, leading the Jays to a win against the Tampa Bay Rays in a game the Rays needed to win. Dickey's season can be considered decent; he finished 14-13, 4.21 with 224 1/3 IP, giving up 105 ER, 71 BB and 207 hits. His 177 Ks go along with his 1.237 WHIP. Obviously, the numbers did not match up to his 2012 season, where he was 20-6, 2.73, 233 2/3, 71, 54, 192. He also had 230 Ks last season with a WHIP of 1.053. His numbers do not tell justice for how well Dickey pitched in the second half of the season. From July 21st, he made 14 starts. During that time, he was 8-6, 3.62 as opposed to 6-7, 4.75 beforehand. In the second half, Dickey also averaged 6.857 innings/ start, 7.97 Ks/ 9 IP and had a WHIP of 1.166. Prior to the All Star break, Dickey was averaging 6.126 IP/ S, 6.43 Ks/ 9 IP and had a WHIP of 1.290. The fact that his Ks were up, base runners down and innings per start up make a case that Dickey can be better next season. If he pitches closer to the way he did in the second half of 2013 next year, the Toronto Blue Jays could become a contender in the AL East again. Having Reyes healthy for a full season helps as well (obviously).

Jose Reyes left the Mets as a free agent following the 2011 season. A season in which he won the NL batting title, the first in the history of the New York Mets franchise. He led the National League in triples and scored over 100 runs while playing in just 128 games. Always a threat on the bases, he also would bring the obtaining team defensive prominence at a position that defense is very important, SS. Reyes signed a deal with the Miami Marlins for 6 years and $106 million with a team option for the 2018 season. As with all other long term contracts involving the Marlins, there was no no trade clause put into it, leading the Marlins to trade him to the Toronto Blue Jays along with Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, John Buck and Emilio Bonifacio for Adeiny Hechavarria, Jake Marisnick, Henderson Alvarez, Justin Nicolino and Jeff Mathis. This deal, as well as the one that brought the Jays RA Dickey from the Mets, put the Toronto team in a position where they could have been considered favorites to win the AL East division or at least compete for a Wild Card spot. It didn't work out that way. An early Reyes injury coupled by the lack of production from the team's starting rotation has the Jays playing out the string like they have been since their last World Series Championship in 1993. There are several key decisions they have to make to plan for next season. It will start out with who their manager will be. Should they retain John Gibbons? How do they address what has been a terrible starting rotation? Do they need to get younger? Reyes, because of his ability, will be sought after whether the Jays are willing to deal him or not. The New York Yankees will probably inquire on his services, with the thought in the back of their mind that maybe it would be better to pursue him after the 2014 season. The same can be said for the Yankees, Troy Tulowitski and the Colorado Rockies. Because of the value of a productive shortstop, the Jays may not be interested in trading Reyes at any cost. Because of this, an interested team has to look at giving up something valuable in a deal to land Jose Reyes. The Yankees, for example, do not have enough MLB ready prospects to suffice the Jays needs. It could change after this season, as prospects like Mason Williams, Slade Heathcott and Gary Sanchez move up through the team's system. The St Louis Cardinals have gotten by with a .218 hitting Pete Kozma playing SS. They have the farm system to get a deal like this done. It would be interesting to see if the Tampa Bay Rays would be interested in paying Reyes for the balance of his contract, however, that seems unlikely. Jose Reyes made a ton of fans during his time with the Mets. A bunch of fans did want to see him go. Many are content with the probability that Reyes will never play for the Mets again. Those who want to see the Mets trade for him, would never want to see the team part with guys like Zack Wheeler, Travis d'Arnaud and others. The Jays would probably want multiple players back including a middle infielder. While I do not think it is likely that the Mets and Jays can agree on a deal, I have one to propose. I think this is a deal that can help out both teams. As with any other proposed trades, people will disagree on both ends of the spectrum. A suggest the Mets give up a young pitcher who many Mets fans think will be a very important part of the team's future, Noah Syndergaard, a pitcher who the Jays probably did not want to give up in the first place. With Syndergaard going to the Jays would be Ruben Tejada, a player who has upside but has worn out his welcome with the Mets. Reyes would come back to Queens, with perhaps a pitcher like JA Happ, Brett Cecil or even take a chance on Ricky Romero. Syndergaard may be considered too much to give up, but the thought of him and Tejada being enough to get Reyes back could make this deal seem like it might make sense to make. Of course, simply signing Reyes two offseasons ago would have allowed the team to retain him for nothing. Reyes' 6 year contract does not seem so bad right now, two seasons in. But after being owed $16 million for next season, he makes $22 million a season from 2015-2017. Maybe the Jays would be asked to take on some of the contract. If that is the case, then maybe there is a deal. I am sure the thought of paying Reyes and trading Syndergaard is probably the last thing New York Mets fans want to think about. But, understand this, the Mets will be paying one or two players a lot of money for the distant future. Whoever it is, many will complain about what they are getting paid.

The Toronto Blue Jays have won the offseason award for busiest team. Obviously that means very little as they have to back up their moves with some solid play. Critics complain that the Jays have not been to the postseason since they last won the World Series in 1993. They say the 2012 Marlins sucked and the Blue Jays just went out and traded for them. They say RA Dickey won 20 games but the Mets still won 75 as a team. And they bring up the fact that the 2012 Blue Jays won just 73 games last season under former manager John Farrell. The problem is too many people use last season's record as the sole determining factor in whether a team will be good or not. The Jays had a rough 2012 season, even with the emergence of 1B Edwin Encarnacion (.288, 42, 110). Ricky Romero had an atrocious 2012 season, going 9-14, 5.77 with 116 ER and 105 BB, and will be starting the season in the minors. Injuries to Brandon Morrow (10-7, 2.96, 21 starts, 3 shutouts) and Jose Bautista (.241, 27, 65 in 92 games) held the team back and projected closer Sergio Santos pitched in just 6 games. The team returns Bautista (54 HR in 2010 and 43 in 2011) and Encarnacion are joined by Jose Reyes (.287, 11, 57, 40 SB) and Melky Cabrera (.346, 11, 60 in 113 games). 3B Brett Lawrie (.273, 11, 48) will start the season on the disabled list. Macier Izturis and Mark DeRosa will fill in temporarily. DH Adam Lind (.255, 11, 45) and catcher JP Arencibia (.233, 18, 56) are expected to perform better this season. Colby Rasmus (.223, 23, 75) will patrol CF with veteran Rajai Davis (.277, 8, 43, 46 SB) as as good a forth OF as their is around. Emilio Bonifacio (.258, 1, 11, 30 SB) will play 2B and gives the lineup a fair balance of power and speed. My line up would look like this: Reyes SS, Rasmus CF, Bautista RF, Encarnacion 1B, Cabrera LF, Lind DH, Lawrie 3B, Arencbia C, Bonifacio 2B. DeRosa, Izturis, Davis and Henry Blanco give the team a veteran bench. The acquisition of RA Dickey was the biggest move the team made this off season. The NL Cy Young Winner went 20-6, 2.73 with 230 Ks and 3 shutouts last season and anchors a staff that also has Morrow and Josh Johnson (8-14, 3.81). Mark Buehrle (13-13, 3.74) and JA Happ (10-11, 4.79) gives the team potentially the top rotation in the AL East. If Romero works out his kicks, it becomes a bonus. Top pitching prospect Aaron Sanchez, intelligently held back in the deals with Miami and New York, is at least another full season away, but should be the real deal. The bullpen should be better than it was last season, led by closer Casey Janssen (1-1, 2.54, 22 saves) and a healthy Santos. Darren Oliver (3-4, 2.06 in 62 games) had his best MLB season as he enters age 42. Esmil Rogers comes over to add depth and former top prospects Brett Cecil and Jeremy Jeffress have made the team. I can see how their is some doubt over whether the Jays are as good as it seems on paper. I think their starting pitching will stand out and they will score more runs than they did last season. Vegas was high on them too, putting their over/ under higher (86 1/2) than it has been in years. I take the over, but I am going with 91-71. While it is good enough to win the AL East, it may not be as much as those who are believing the hype will say. As I have said before, the parity in the AL East will affect all the teams in the division. By getting the Jays into the playoffs, manager John Gibbons will do something that has not been done since the last Jays manager to serve two terms, Cito Gaston did.

This is planned to be a four part series; a late season temperature to take on a couple of teams who will be looking towards 2013. If a team is not competing for a postseason berth, the focus is on the future and what the plans are for next season. Starting with the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays today, I will take two teams in four of the six divisions and analyze which future looks or could look brighter. The Boston Red Sox have been one of the bigger disasters. They currently sit at 65-80, on pace for their first losing season since 1997. As I have both written about and spoke about on my podcast, too much attention has been put on Bobby Valentine as the manager and too little has been put on the direction of the personnel of this team. Valentine was named manager by Larry Lucchino with the expectation of stirring up a very laxed clubhouse. He has done that to the extreme, with several veteran players showing their true colors. It has become quite obvious that the core Red Sox players have no respect for authority and plan on making their own rules. The Red Sox will go one of two ways. They will either part ways with Valentine after the season, hire a new manager and retool to compete next season. Or, Valentine will return and co-ordinate with Lucchino and General Manager Ben Cherington to build a team similar to the Mets of the late 1990s or what was attempted with the Texas Rangers of the mid 1980s. In my opinion, the second option has more of a chance to happen than most think at this point, particularly the Boston sports writers. I know I have spoken much about the Red Sox, but the direction of the team will determine whether they will be a AL East contender next season or a best case scenario being a wild card push. That will also be the difference between them being ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays next season or behind. To me, the Blue Jays have been a disappointment. The past offseason should have been handled a little bit better by GM Alex Anthopoulos. I made an early case last offseason that the Jays had to add a top of the rotation starter to go with Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero. They fell short in the persuit of Yu Darvish and missed out on Oakland's trades of Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill. Like a lot teams, injuries have done the Blue Jays in this season. I think the philosophy will stay the same doing into next season, but the Jays need to add that missing piece to get to the top. I will continue to suggest a top of the rotation starting pitcher and maybe decide on who will be their starting CF and LF. Another interesting consideration for Toronto is whether catcher JP Arencibia will be traded in the offseason. Jeff Mathis just signed an extension and there is a possibility tha Yorvit Torrealba may return next year. Top catching prospect Travis D'Arnald may be ready sometime next season. Arencibia should be able to net Toronto something of value, at the very least. I do see the Blue Jays taking the next step next season. Now, on to my question about which team is better off next season. It depends on what the Red Sox do. Will they open up the wallets and pay out the money they saved in the Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett trade? Or will they sit on the money and try to build the team from within? Remember, Boston is not blessed with the best farm system and they could back themselves up with that approach. If thats the case, I see the Blue Jays being the better team right now and into next year. But, I can also see a scenario where the Red Sox retool and add a pitcher and a couple of position players and be a favorite to win the AL East. If thats the case, I think the Red Sox will be the better team.