Climate's growing role in presidential race

CLIMATE’S READY FOR ITS CLOSE-UP: Expect Hillary Clinton’s campaign to keep pounding Donald Trump over his claims that climate change is a “hoax,” as it’s increasingly seen as a wedge issue that could help her attract crucial votes from blocs of millennials and suburban women, Pro’s Elana Schor reports. The spotlight on the issue could get brighter still to cite links between the changing climate and severe weather as Hurricane Matthew bears down on Florida.

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What a difference four years makes: The renewed focus marks a sharp turnaround from the 2012 election when climate change was so rarely invoked in the presidential race that frustrated environmentalists launched a “Climate Silence” project to force the issue into the discussion. But polls show the increased push may reap electoral dividends: Data from eight swing states released last week by the green group EDF Action shows that while Republicans may side with Trump on environmental issues, independents strongly favor more aggressive government action on climate change.

“Trump’s position speaks to his hardcore base, but he’s not going to win this election just by speaking to his base,” Andrew Baumann, a senior vice president at the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group who spearheaded the poll, said. “He needs to speak to suburban women, young women, and all the polling we did shows this is just going to push them away.” And Clinton campaign spokesman Tyrone Gayle told Elana the candidate will keep touting her renewable energy plan and Trump's "Chinese hoax" statement. "Despite overwhelming scientific evidence, Donald Trump and his campaign continue to bury their heads in the sand and peddle repeatedly debunked claims," Gayle said in an email.

WELCOME TO NATIONAL NOODLE DAY! Known, alternatively, by some of you as Thursday. I'm your host Anthony Adragna, and Nathaniel Banks served Massachusetts in Congress as a member of four different parties! Today’s trivia: Who was the original Senate sponsor of the Clean Water Act? Send your tips, energy gossip and comments to aadragna@politico.com, or follow us on Twitter @AnthonyAdragna, @Morning_Energy, and @POLITICOPro.

PARIS CLIMATE ACCORD KICKS IN ON NOV. 4: The 30-day clock is now running for the Paris climate agreement to enter into force, after EU ratification pushed the deal over its final threshold. So what will happen on Nov. 4? After all, the deal was carefully constructed to avoid the kind of binding provisions that would have forced President Barack Obama to put the commitment to a Senate vote. Instead, negotiators cobbled together a combination of voluntary commitments with binding verification measures that the executive branch can enact on its own. "The Agreement’s legally binding provisions include the requirement for all countries to report their climate actions transparently, collectively take stock of progress, and enhance their climate actions every five years," David Waskow, International Climate Director for the World Resources Institute, said in a statement.

Democrats take a victory lap: President Barack Obama hailed the landmark accord in a last-minute appearance in the Rose Garden on Wednesday afternoon, promising it “will delay or avoid some of the worst depredations of climate change,” as Pro's Eric Wolff reports. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, fully embracing his YOLO Reid self, had to take a swipe at Trump while praising the deal: “Instead of supporting their bigoted fraud presidential candidate Donald Trump and his vows to ‘cancel’ the Paris Climate Agreement, Republicans should join with Democrats to build upon America’s climate leadership,” he said in a statement.

Long-time critics of the international climate efforts returned to familiar themes in attacking the accord. House Speaker Paul Ryan warned the Paris deal will be “disastrous for the American economy” and lead to higher energy prices: “President Obama has once again acted unlawfully by signing an international treaty without Senate ratification, as required by the Constitution,” Ryan said in a statement.

Trump-proof? Many observers have touted the pact going live as a wall of sorts against a potential assault on climate policy by a President Donald Trump. But Trump could engage in the four-year withdrawal process written into the agreement, or he could take a shorter route to damaging the accord by unraveling Obama's domestic climate policies, as he has repeatedly promised to do. During a March primary debate, Trump spoke of wanting to effectively eliminate "the Department of Environment Protection,” apparently his term for the EPA. He vowed to leave "little tidbits” but “get most of it out." Eric detailed Trump's possible approaches to the Paris deal last month.

The mogul's campaign weighed in Wednesday night with a statement that called the Paris accord a bad deal that would harm the economy but attempted to strike a softer tone on environmental regulation overall. Deputy Policy Director Dan Kowalski said Trump would “refocus” the EPA domestically on its “core mission” of clean air and clean water: “We will also work with Congress, the states and the private sector to take prudent steps that will have a positive emissions reduction impact, while also making America stronger and more prosperous.” The statement also noted “many scientists are concerned about greenhouse gas emissions” but said they needed to continue research efforts “without political agendas getting in the way."

TRUMP WHIFFS ON YUCCA: Meanwhile, Trump dodged on what he would do about the proposed long-term nuclear waste repository of Yucca Mountain during an interview late Wednesday with local Nevada media. "I will tell you I'm going to take a look at it because so many people here are talking about it. I'll take a look at it, and the next time you interview me, I'll have an answer," said Trump. Local reporter Jon Ralston went after Trump’s lack of preparedness on "the one issue EVERY WH candidate knows will be asked” on Twitter. Hillary Clinton, in contrast, said in January Yucca "should be off the table.”

HFC REDUCTION NEGOTIATIONS GREASED BY $80M DONATION: EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy is heading to Kigali, Rwanda, next week to negotiate an amendment to the Montreal protocol to reduce emissions of hydrofluorocarbons, which are used in cooling. In a call Wednesday, McCarthy said that an $80 million commitment by philanthropists announced last month in New York to facilitate energy efficiency and a faster transition to other coolants could help persuade developing nations to act quickly.

HFCs have significantly more heat-trapping capacity than carbon dioxide, but spend less time in the atmosphere. The chemical doesn't make up a huge part of global warming now, but the use of cooling technologies is expected to accelerate in coming years, giving the amendment urgency, McCarthy said. "The earlier we can get those reductions started, the less expensive this transition is," she said, arguing the donation is “enormously helpful” because it provides developing nations with “significant incentive.”

AVIATION AGREEMENT NEARS COMPLETION: Today, the executive committee of the International Civil Aviation Organization could advance a slightly modified version of an agreement to cap aviation carbon emissions at 2020 levels using "market based measures" that require purchase of offsets for emissions above that level. The chair of the committee emerged from almost a week of talks with developing countries concerned with the impact on their domestic aviation sectors with a slightly modified version of the original proposal. Though Russia, among other nations, would like to see some changes, there appears to be consensus to move the measure forward.

Meanwhile, some observers were caught off-guard yesterday when the president of the assembly moved to strike language from the ICAO's strategic plan for tackling climate change that would, in essence, hook it to the Paris climate agreement. Without objection from either the U.S. or the EU, the current strategic plan, which is separate from the market based measures proposal, no longer requires a goal of holding climate change to a 2-degree Celsius increase (or the 1.5 degree aspirational goal in the Paris accord). This language could potentially be restored today before the document is adopted by the assembly.

MONIZ CALLS CLIMATE DENIAL ‘RIDICULOUS’: Flanked by actors Don Cheadle and Joshua Jackson, Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz called denying climate change “ridiculous” on Netflix’s Chelsea: “We as member of our society should not be amused when we hear these statements about climate change not being a concern,” he told host Chelsea Handler. “It’s ridiculous, frankly, and we need to have people, voters stand up and push back on this. It’s not the way we, as Americans, address problems.” Later on, Moniz explained why the 1980s-set Netflix series Stranger Things may be realer than you think. The whole episode is streaming on Netflix.

LATEST VOLLEY FIRED AGAINST ALEC, EXXON: Two watchdog groups — Center for Media Democracy and Common Cause — today submitted more information to the IRS that they say shows Exxon Mobil and the American Legislative Exchange Council are violating laws governing charitable organizations. The groups say Exxon has been using ALEC to lobby state and federal legislators against the scientific consensus on climate change and to undermine a host of actions to address it. “Exxon uses ALEC’s charitable status to fuel its disinformation campaign on climate change, so taxpayers are literally paying Exxon to lie to them,” Eric Havian, a lawyer involved in the case, said in a statement. The groups asked the IRS to expedite its investigation into potential civil and criminal liability for Exxon and ALEC.

Industry scoffs: Katie Brown, spokeswoman for the Independent Petroleum Association of America-backed Energy in Depth project, said the effort was nothing more than an attempt by the groups to silence speech they disagree with: “It’s rather humorous to see these groups running back to the IRS, the preferred agency of activists trying to shut down views they disagree with.”

READING GLASSES!REPORT: FEDERAL COAL REFORM CAN’T WAIT: The Wilderness Society writes in a report today that coal companies are failing to restore mined lands while still seeking new leases on more than 80,000 acres. The report says taxpayers are not seeing a fair return on coal mining operations, and adds that curbing mining operations on public lands is an “integral part” of addressing climate change.

YOU BUILD ME UP: The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate released a report today that found $90 trillion in infrastructure investments will be needed over the next 15 years, and issued four recommendations for ensuring those projects are sustainable. Key suggestions include: phasing out fossil fuel subsidy programs and implementing carbon pricing; adding new tools like green bonds and green investment banking to the existing financial system; and boosting investments in clean technology research and innovation. “Today’s low interest rates and rapid technological change mean that this is an especially opportune moment for sustainable infrastructure-led growth, and for investing in a better future,” the report says.

NEW RESILIENCY PORTAL LAUNCHES: The EPA today is unveiling a new online tool to help communities develop step-by-step plans for adapting to the impacts of climate change. The Adaptation Resource Center will help local governments get regionalized information on climate impacts, provide case studies about the experiences of other communities and detail potential federal sources of funding and technical assistance. ARC-X will help community leaders “continue to deliver reliable, cost-effective services even as the climate changes,” according to Administrator Gina McCarthy.

SUNSHINE SUPER-LAWMAKERS LAUDED: The Solar Energy Industries Association is today recognizing five lawmakers for their efforts in promoting the development of solar power. A lifetime award goes to Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, who the group calls “strongest advocate for the solar industry ever to serve in Congress.” Recipients of the organization’s Solar Champion Award are Sens. Dean Heller and Michael Bennet, as well as Reps. Tom Reed and Mike Thompson, for their efforts to preserve and extend the solar investment tax credit in 2015.

COURT TELLS FERC TO PAY UP OVER FOIA DISPUTE: The D.C. District Court told FERC Tuesday that it needed to pay more than $60,000 in attorney’s fees over a FOIA dispute involving STS Energy, whose partners include Kevin and Rich Gates, twins who run a firm targeted by regulators for market manipulation. The brothers had been in search of documents related to two other FERC investigations as part of their work to disclose the “punitive efforts against small power market traders” conducted by the agency. FERC initially withheld more than 230 documents but eventually relented as the lawsuit progressed. The FOIA litigation was actually resolved last year but STS Energy’s pro bono lawyers were at odds with FERC over whether the agency should pay attorney’s fees. District Judge John Bates wrote that “FERC did show some recalcitrance” and appeared to hold onto documents in order to save time and/or avoid embarrassment.

JERSEY SOLAR BILL FACES BUMPS AHEAD: Legislation aimed at boosting the New Jersey solar industry gets a hearing today in an assembly committee but faces stiff opposition from the state rate council, POLITICO New Jersey’s David Giambusso reports. The bill would move up the schedule for solar renewable energy credits and requirements for a certain percentage of energy supply to come from solar. But Stefanie Brand, the New Jersey Rate Counsel, argues the bill is saddling ratepayers with excessive costs to artificially keep the solar market alive.

MORE RED CARPET COMPANY IN CLIMATE FIGHT: Add actresses Rachel Bloom and Jessica Williams to the list of Hollywood stars urging young people to vote this fall because of the potential implications the election could have on climate change policy. “Every second we are not freaking out about climate change, we are either living in ignorance or willful delusion,” Bloom writes in an essay for Cosmopolitan. “Climate change is our own pandemic; the consequences have the potential to be just as dire.” Williams, of “Daily Show” fame, will headline a comedy tour in Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina hosted by Tom Steyer’s NextGen Climate. Shows are Friday in Philadelphia, Saturday in Cincinnati and Sunday in Charlotte.

QUICK HITS

— Russia suspends nuclear agreement, ends uranium research pact with United States Reuters.

About The Author

Anthony Adragna is an energy reporter and author of Morning Energy. Before joining POLITICO, he spent four and a half years covering EPA and other environmental issues with Bloomberg BNA. His journalism career started across the country as a reporter with Seattle Business Magazine.

Adragna is a Washington, D.C. native and a graduate of Middlebury College in Vermont. When he’s not reading EPA regulations or covering floor votes, he enjoys cooking and rooting for the Washington Nationals.