Sure, it's based on a simulation - a very complex simulation, but it beats saying "I didn't see any alien Von Neumann probes when I looked out my window this morning. We're obviously alone in the universe." Which is basically all the Fermi "Paradox" amounts to, no matter how people try to dress it up.

"The current research estimates that there are at least 361 intelligent civilisations in our Galaxy and possibly as many as 38,000."

The many anthropocentric premises and assumptions underlying this paper of Horgan's are so manifold, all I can suggest is that those interested simply read his paper to see for themselves how this rather arbitrary range of estimated intelligent civilizations is based on false premises, supposition, and incomplete and inadequate data.

"Frankly, there's nothing worse (aside from death, global famine, nuclear disaster and all-round armageddon) than seeing players in the UFO field fawning all over their peers at conferences as they seek acceptance into the ufological sand-pit by saying the 'right thing' to the 'right people.' Thankfully, there's none of that in Mac's world."