The Copenhagen Accord reaffirms the importance of limiting global warming to 2 °C (3.6 °F), but current national commitments would lead to approximately 3.9 °C (7.0 °F) warming by 2100. To close that gap global emissions must peak within the next decade and fall approximately 50% below 1990 levels by 2050 (a cut of approximately […]

Copenhagen — As of 12:30 am on 19 December, the latest draft text for the Copenhagen Accord has too few quantifiable targets for our team to adequately analyze it. We look forward to using C-ROADS to calculating the long term impacts of the Accord as soon as possible. Note that, as we explain here, the […]

The Climate Scoreboard, created by the Climate Interactive team with the C-ROADS simulator, indicates long-term outcomes of national proposals. It does not yet reflect the content of a yet-to-be-finalized Copenhagen UNFCCC agreement. Determining whether or not the “deal” in Copenhagen is a success is a difficult task. We at Climate Interactive have noticed confusion, including mischaracterization of analysis of […]

[clearspring_widget title=”Climate Scoreboard” wid=”4b0afdf054484c54″ pid=”4b15120637e3b433″ width=”450″ height=”399″ domain=”widgets.clearspring.com”] Our calculation of anticipated 2100 global temperature, captured in the Climate Scoreboard, nudged slightly higher with the news of Japan making its mitigation proposal to the UNFCCC conditional on the actions of others. Reuters reported on Friday that Japanese Environment Minister Sakihito Ozawa announced that Japan’s previous […]

Writing from the Bella Center in Copenhagen, our Climate Interactive team is sharing analysis of Day 5 Draft Texts in COP15. With less than a week to go, significant differences remain between the aggregate emissions reductions from current national proposals and the mitigation targets released yesterday in a draft text at the UNFCCC climate talks […]

On Wednesday, here at COP15 in Copenhagen, the Climate Interactive team and partners presented the C-ROADS simulation and the Climate Scoreboard at the Bellona Room in the Bella Center to demonstrate our tools to support the negotiations. Watch a video of the presentation here.

Analysis with the C-ROADS simulator shows that most all (94%) of the emissions reduction required to hit mitigation goals for 2050 will happen after 2020. Put another way, the necessary post-2020 results are fifteen times as much as pre-2020. So, here in Copenhagen and in 2010, 2050 proposals really matter.

Below is a video of a presentation Dr. Elizabeth Sawin gave introducing the Climate Scoreboard in Copenhagen on the second day of the UN negotiations. You can see the full Scoreboard here. [vodpod id=Groupvideo.4139821&w=425&h=350&fv=clip_id%3D8041961%26server%3Dvimeo.com%26autoplay%3D0%26fullscreen%3D1%26md5%3D0%26show_portrait%3D0%26show_title%3D0%26show_byline%3D0%26context%3Duser%3A2239247%26context_id%3D%26force_embed%3D0%26multimoog%3D%26color%3D00ADEF%26force_info%3Dundefined]