Villanova players hold the tournament trophy after an NCAA college basketball game against Providence in the Big East men's tournament final Saturday, March 10, 2018, in New York. Villanova won 76-66 in overtime. less

Villanova players hold the tournament trophy after an NCAA college basketball game against Providence in the Big East men's tournament final Saturday, March 10, 2018, in New York. Villanova won 76-66 in ... more

Photo: Frank Franklin II, AP

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Villanova coach Jay Wright shouts to players at the other end of the court during the second half of the team's NCAA college basketball game against Marquette in the Big East men's tournament quarterfinals in New York, Thursday, March 8, 2018. Villanova defeated Marquette 94-70. less

Villanova coach Jay Wright shouts to players at the other end of the court during the second half of the team's NCAA college basketball game against Marquette in the Big East men's tournament quarterfinals in ... more

Photo: Kathy Willens, AP

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Virginia guard Devon Hall (0) is double-teamed by North Carolina forward Theo Pinson (1) and guard Joel Berry II (2) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game for the Atlantic Coast Conference men's tournament title Saturday, March 10, 2018, in New York. Virginia won 71-63. less

Virginia guard Devon Hall (0) is double-teamed by North Carolina forward Theo Pinson (1) and guard Joel Berry II (2) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game for the Atlantic Coast Conference ... more

Photo: Julie Jacobson, AP

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A few upsets early, but in the end, Villanova wins it all

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Ordinarily, the rule when filling out brackets is that the First Four games in Dayton should be ignored because those teams are all incapable of winning a game when the "real" tournament starts on Thursday.

Oops.

Welcome to 2018, where two of the last three teams picked for this tournament not only will win their opening round games — but will then go on to win more games later in the week, and therefore should be showing up on billions of the gazillions of brackets that will be filled out in the coming days by people who will try to line their pockets by winning all those $5 and $10 bills that coworkers happily deposited into the office NCAA Tournament pool.

America, you need to know about St. Bonaventure and Syracuse.

Many people did not think they merited spots in this field. They are wrong. The Bonnies are seriously underseeded and should not be going to Dayton. The Orange — not to make this argument too scientific — lost a bunch of games to a bunch of teams that are really good.

It's finding the upset winners that will either make you or break you in NCAA bracket pools. When Syracuse and St. Bonaventure are still playing this weekend, those wins will help you have bragging rights in the office for the next 52 weeks. Because — spoiler alert — in the end, the higher seeds will be the last teams standing.

A year ago in this space, we told you that North Carolina would win the national championship, so clearly the information contained here is guaranteed to help you win your pool. (We also told you that Vermont was going to the Sweet 16, so take all of this with many grains of salt.)

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Before we begin, take note that over the 20 years, there have been some undeniable trends on the way to determining the NCAA champion.

— They all have fewer than 10 losses entering the tournament.

— They all have at least 26 wins entering the tournament. (There is one exception to this rule, that being Syracuse in 2003.)

— The West Coast is not the best coast: No team from a western state has won the title since Arizona in 1997. The westernmost champ in the last 20 years was Kansas in 2008.

— Finally, don't be ranked No. 1 going into the tournament. Sadly, that means we have to eliminate Virginia. Which this year, makes absolutely no sense.

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And now, we must answer some burning questions.

— Will all four No. 1 seeds make it to the Final Four? Nope. It's only happened once, in 2008.

— Will all four No. 1 seeds lose before the Final Four? Again, nope. That's only happened three times — 1980, 2006 and 2011.

— Will a longshot make the Final Four? In each of the last five seasons, one team seeded No. 7 or higher has gotten there. But this year, won't happen.

— Should I pick the higher seed in every game? Don't. Nobody likes that person.

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So without further ado ... the picks.

SOUTH

FIRST ROUND WINNERS: Virginia, Kansas State, Kentucky, Arizona, Miami, Tennessee, Texas, Cincinnati. Nary an upset to be found, with the exception of Texas over Nevada and Kansas State over Creighton. Kentucky and Arizona will have to work for their wins. Miami could struggle, but Lonnie Walker IV will get one win from what'll almost certainly be his lone NCAA appearance.

SECOND ROUND: Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Cincinnati. Mild upset with Kentucky over Arizona, but that's not really an upset.