European politics

Italian politics

Will Mario Monti's government fall?

THE latest political storm in Italy blew out of an apparently clear winter sky in considerably less than 24 hours. The first thing to be said about it, then, is that it shows Italian politics are volatile.

That may seem like a statement of the blindingly obvious but it had nevertheless been forgotten by the markets. Silvio Berlusconi’s People of Freedom (PdL) movement withdrew its support from Mario Monti’s government just days after Italian sovereign bond yields fell to a level that implicitly dismissed as irrelevant all of the political and financial turmoil in Italy over the past two years.

Now those yields have abruptly changed direction. It may be a long time before they do so again. The atmosphere in Rome on December 6th was of a country tipping unsteadily towards an election of which the outcome was unpredictable.

Mr Monti’s non-party government has until now had the backing of the PdL, the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) and the Union of the Centre (UDC). Though the leader of the PD, Pier Luigi Bersani, was keen to stress that he would remain loyal to Mr Monti to the end, he has good reason to want a snap election. His party is on a roll. The PD’s primary elections, to select a candidate for prime minister, were a resounding success. It is polling above 30%. At that level, and with some help from its allies, the PD could return to power under the present electoral law with a comfortable majority in both houses.

So why is Mr Berlusconi (pictured above) apparently ready to bring forward an election his adversaries are likely to win? The latest polls give the PdL a miserable 16% or so, less than the Five Star Movement, led by a comedian and blogger, Beppe Grillo.

What is potentially bad for the PdL, however, is not necessarily bad for Mr Berlusconi. An early election would scupper plans for a primary ballot in the PdL that risked delivering control of his party to another. It would also block the approval of a new electoral law. The current one has a high potential for creating parliamentary instability, and Mr Berlusconi may believe he could benefit from that. Not least perhaps, a snap election could thwart moves to ban people convicted of offences from running for the national legislature. Mr Berlusconi was recently found guilty of tax fraud (though he is expected to appeal).

Against this background, it is perhaps surprising that so many of the members of his party followed his lead in the Senate. Some (notably the former foreign minister, Franco Frattini) are now rebelling and others may yet follow. Mr Berlusconi risks achieving his aims at a cost of splitting his party.

If most PdL parliamentarians continue to abstain, they will not necessarily bring down Mr Monti’s government. Provided they continue to ensure there are quorums in the two chambers when votes are taken, legislation can still be passed. The government could even survive motions of no-confidence without their support.

Even so, it would be constantly vulnerable to ambush from the right, and in any case this is not just a matter of arithmetic. Mr Monti’s legitimacy has rested since the inception of his government on the breadth of his support in parliament. He may not have been elected. But (a point frequently overlooked by foreign observers) he has had the support of the elected representatives of the country’s two biggest parties.

A motion of confidence that Mr Monti won despite the votes (or abstentions) of either of those parties would still be a moral defeat.

You may be right - but even if his convictions were to be upheld by all the courts of appeals, etc. etc., he still too old to go to jail in Italy and would be confined to house arrest. Given that he lives in one of Italy's largest villas...

Why should he be in prison? He is fully innocent.You can't put innocent people at pleasure into prison as it happens in communist countries....perhaps next year if the 'commie' Bersani comes to the helm. I am rather wondering why you aren't in a lunatic asylum, then.

Dear me, I laughed at your earlier comments but I start feeling sorry for you Longman ... let me know which 'lunatic asylum' you are a patient of and I'll send flowers hoping that you'll recover soon from the Berlusconi delusion that has afflicted a large part of the Italian population but in recent time they have found an antidote, it's call JUSTICE!

Dear me, I laughed at your earlier comments but I start feeling sorry for you Longman ... let me know which 'lunatic asylum' you are a patient of and I'll send flowers hoping that you'll recover soon from the Berlusconi delusion that has afflicted a large part of the Italian population but in recent time they have found an antidote, it's call JUSTICE!

Who among the young people could match with a Berlusconi in every field? Nobody. Who among the politicians could match with Berlusconi in every field? Monti perhaps? This down-and-out? This sleepyhead? This mortician? My cat is laughing!

Mr Berlusconi at his worst is always better than Mr Monti at his best. Who is this Monti? A nobody: a school teacher completely unknown till last year, a former advisor of the merchant bank Goldman Sachs, a former senior member of the rating agency Moody's.In this position he sold junk funds and ruined a great number of people...a cheater in other words. He was picked up by the 'comrade' Napolitano a former communist now Italy's head of state. Except for pasta and opera, the Italians cannot be credited with anything. Their talk is always one octave above their actions, their absolute inability to deal with success. Always a failure.In Italy from the tragedy to the farce is only a little step.

I understand that your comments Dr Longman333 are meant to be ironic and not a true reflection of facts. If you were serious and you had used facts, you would have concluded that; (a) Berlusconi is responsible for the current economic problems in Italy through his inability and unwillingness to tackle entrenched corruption (of course Italians elected a fox to guard the chickens and now cry that the chickens have evaporated), (b) Italians have excelled in all fields, including discoveries (why is America called a certain Amerigo Vespucci?), science (I wonder what was Fermi work in developing the Big Boy that ended WWII?), Law (what our World would be without the principle of Roman laws?), Architecture (have you seen those aqueducts that have withstood floods, quakes, etc.?). I could go on but I think even you would get the drift, and thanks for a light relief at lunch time, I needed that laugh!!

Even in your perspective Mr Monti is, at worst, a hitman for the Bad Big Banks, not a wrongdoer in his own right. He was positively somebody for the best part of his life, even if he does not own a soccer team. We may not like his deeds, but he is at least doing something after a 20-years-plus paralisys.
Any opinion about "Berlusconi at his worst" is nonsensical talk: his best and his worst are the same thing. Berlusconi will always be Berlusconi, and this is his limit, doom and epitaph. And I, for one, am not favorabily impressed by his ability in conjuring a political party out of nothing, misusing it and now destroying it without a thought about those who believed in it, and in him. After all, he remained the big-mouthed, self-praising tycoon who made his fortune backed up from politicians in a quasi-monopoly regime.

"I understand that your comments Dr Longman333 are meant to be ironic and not a true reflection of facts"

"Dr." (?) Longman is a notorious Berluscones dieharder, a groupie, a tireless fan of this universal metaphor of the political clown, reminiscent of Allen’s Bananas. Longman IS serious and does use facts, although in the same sense of a 1984 Telescreen shouting contradicting, purposely generated facts for mass consumption. There is no irony there, I’m afraid.

"Except for pasta and opera, the Italians cannot be credited with anything."

Electricity. The radio. The MP3 music file format. Dante. Renaissance. Leonardo. Beccaria and the stop to torture. Drouhet and the mechanism of 20th century warfare. Renzo Piano and the Centre Pompidou. Fermi and nuclear energy. The personal computer (yes).

We Italians have been generously endowed by the Lord with all sorts of flaws and shortcomings, to be sure, but we can readily tell a halfwit or a bigot when we see one or read their posts.

If I say that Monti is a nobody I say the truth. He can only rearrange the deck chairs of the Titanic-Italy well. When I say that you probavly are depriving a village somewhre of an idiot, I also say something true, don't I?

Excuse if my ignorance is no match for yours, but I have to point out that: a) Berlusconi is by no means responsible of Italy's current economic problems which had their origins in the late 70 years and were caused by the centre-left governments and especially enhanced by criminals as Prodi, Ciampi, Amato, D'Alema & Co. with the help of the criminal red trade unions.They all wanted to live beyond their means and stole like gangsters do. b) it is not true that Italians have excelled in all fields. In all fields excelled only the Tuscans who are not Italians at all (they are Etruscans and Lombards). Roman laws is just Roman not Italian. The Prince von Metternich once said: "Italy is only a geographic expression.

I was with you Paul till you mention the name of the Lord in vain ... and not because I'm a catholic but because I'm an atheist. You may not be aware that there is a greater probability of the existence of Santa Claus than the existence of your lord.

You are right, your ignorance has no match. Italy, like other countries, is composed of regions, provinces, towns, villages and even individual groups of houses. Tuscany, last time I checked was part of Italy and has not broken away. Rome is the capital of Italy, I think that classifies Roman Laws as the birth of Italian and international laws. There is an Italic people (in fact from the region I was born in) but they do not claim to be the only Italians, it would be foolish and offensive, just like your nonsensical statements. In the list of 'criminals' you left out Craxi, Silvio's school mate that robbed Italy, gave TV licenses to Silvio, had to run away to Morocco and could not return to Italy. Silvio simply stole in a grander scale while promising to solve Italy's problems. But of course you can't see this because you are not capable of rational and objective thoughts. Are you employed by Silvio? If not, you should contact him and ask for 'un favore', he has helped so many hopeless cases ... but you need good set of 'tette' and 'un culo da puttana'. Good luck!

WOW, you are now showing the 'cafone' you really are by bringing in my mother (she died some 20 years ago), sister (I have none), wife (divorced and nevertheless the mother of my sons) and daughters (sorry, only managed to have boys). The inability to offer a logic counter argument and resorting to cheap insult is a clear reason why you are such Silvio supporter, you are both made of the same 'merda'.

This has been on the cards since Monti took over. It is surprising anyone should think otherwise. There is now a huge vacuum and distance beween the old guard (Berlusconi, Bersani et al) and the new which has unfortunately not materialized after the PD primary elections. Mr B. (choose from the 2) has just taken the opportunity offered to him, predictably and boringly so for most Italians. The alternative (Montezemolo et al) has not delcared itself. The PD is not on a roll, as the Economist erroneously states, but is the best of no other options.

"May" is a modal, and like all English modals is used in various ways. You will notice ("will" is a modal too, and does not signify the future here) that the next sentence in the article begins with "But". The sense is, "Yes, it's true he wasn't elected, but..." The writer of the article fully understood that this was an established fact.

Call it a factoid, rather. Monti was chosen by virtue of the same Constitution-dictated process that put all other Italian PMs on the saddle. Can't people from other countries understand Constitutions can be different?
British subjects can't elect their Head of State and the US Congress can't oust the Head of the Executive. Both are possible with the Italian Constitution. Italy is a Parliamentary Republic. The UK and the US are not.
Please, please, please STOP repeating Monti was not elected. That is not the point. No Italian PM has ever been since 1945.
One may question whether Italy still deserves the name of democratic, but not for that reason.

To misuse 'may' in this way makes the word unnecessarily ambiguous, causing a loss of meaning. Things that are in doubt 'may' be true, but how do we signify this if we also needlessly write of known facts that they 'may' be true as well?

This use of may derives from a slightly disingenuous (and defensive) cliched turn-of-phrase, most usually in speech. A negative is minimised through being described as only possibly being true, then immediately followed by a positive that is described as a certainty:

"I may not have been perfect, but I always tried."

"I may not be the best qualified academically, but I'll work hard."

The speaker concedes something unflattering, typically which they know to be true, but softens the admission through expressing it only as a possibility - and immediately following it with a positive stated as fact.

However, it's unnecessary for journalists to imitate this ungrammatical and meaning-destroying conversational quirk. There's no need for weasel words, it just comes across as shifty. Monti's never stood for a public election, but The Economist supports him as PM anyway. If the writer is uncomfortable typing that out, he should ask himself why.

It's not a misuse, it's not ungrammatical, it's not weaselling, and it's not misleading if you're familiar with how the language is used. It is an absolutely standard alternative to saying "Although he was not elected, he has had the support of the elected representatives of the country’s two biggest parties."

"The first thing to be said about it, then, is that it shows Italian politics are volatile."

No they are not. They are vastly predictable, if anything. This pseudo-decision surprises nobody in Italy. If Silvio loses his political power, he risks losing everthing else, including potentially the liberty to leave his house of residence.

The man was obviously never going to go down without a fight. Who cares? If he wins 15% of the vote at the beginning of next year, he should be thankful.

"Now those yields have abruptly changed direction. It may be a long time before they do so again. The atmosphere in Rome on December 6th was of a country tipping unsteadily towards an election of which the outcome was unpredictable."

Wrong again. The outcome is highly predictable. The old stupid electoral law will be retained. The PD-SEL coalition behind Centre-Leftist Pier Luigi Bersani will win with a bigger majority than they deserve - given the chicaneries in the law originally sponsored by Berlusconi - and Romano Prodi's former Minister of the Economy will form a government that will include a respectable number of technicians and other former Ministers.

I fail to see any emergency, surprise, or problem for the rest of Europe in all this. This is just market speculators taking advantage of Silvio Berlusconi's Sound and Fury (signifying Nothing) to attack our sovereign bond market once again.

So, why does the Economist participate in this mediatic campaign against the peninsula?

SB has no choice, the current team he has, is fleeing elsewhere, Tremonti will be leader of the LN soon as Maroni moves to become president of Lombardia. Another nail in the coffin of the PDL.
SB will end up with less than 10% of the vote and ensure a place in Italian politics via an alliance. ( casini was rumored )
PD will win, they will get the wrath of Italian people as the recession will remain for 3 more years or as Merkel states , five.
Reforms will falter, industry will slow and then we have a "normalized as we know it Italy".
There will be many parties that will win between 5 and 10% . Something like the Greek elections this year.

The Sun knows all sorts of violent phenomena, but its behavior can be predicted quite easily and accurately. No volatility there.

Insect populations are very volatile. Chaos analysts show they may be predicted in their numbers, but not easily, and nodoby really does.

The impression of volatility other Europeans get when considering Italian politics is born of mere ignorance of the underlying rules. China's politics are not monolythic. Italy's are not a prairie fire.

Except that I think many reforms will be made by the PD that are currently being blocked in parliament by Berlusconi's minions. Or by Goldman Sachs and the Pope through Mario Monti.

I also think we will be out of recession by the second half of next year. We are not out of the woods yet - but I think the worst is behind us. That point was reached last year, more or less at the moment when Berlusconi stepped down and the spread on our bonds was north of 500 basis points.

Thanks Connect for your comment; at the moment I am reading a few books about Napoleon. For a second I saw Burlesqueoni snatching the crown from the Pope and proclaiming himself emperor.
On a more serious note, though, I think that would be offensive towards Napoleon: Bonaparte was a clever stateman.

Italian politics are both complex and simple. They are complex because, in true Italian style, they have created so many parties that attempting to find common grounds is almost impossible. In most countries there is government and its opposition with alternative policies. In traditional post-WWII Italian politics there has been a collection of parties that, through favours and other dubious means, have put together a tenuous government. And it is opposed by a range of parties unable to agree on common grounds. Clever Silvio has exploited this confusion and thanks to his media empire (a gift from his school friend Craxi in 1984) he has presented himself as the leader that would move Italy into the 21st century. What he forgot to inform Italian electors is that he was making rich Italians richer and the easy-life Italians enjoyed over the past 25 years was based on massive borrowing. Eventually the debts were too large and he stepped aside.

It was left to Monti to tell italians the bad news, and true to form, most Italians blame Monti for the current austerity measures and they fail to understand that the architect of measures was dear Silvio.

The latest 'corruption index' that places Italy (as well as Spain and Greece) as the most corrupted European country is a reflection of doing business Southern European style, i.e. (a) taxes are to be avoided at all costs, (b) rules are followed only by fools, (c) smart people know how to get around restrictive rules (and Silvio is a classic example), and (d) you'll get what you need or want if you know someone that can facilitate the task for you and to whom you pay some form of recompense.

Will this change in the near future? My guess is NOT but the chance is likely to improve if Monti stays put and Silvio goes to jail for a while.

I would replace in (b) the word "fools" with "the honest", and in (c) the word "smart" with the word "clever". Even in your semantic (that would like to seem critical of the status quoi), you use negative terms on smart honest people who know their country is likely to suffer in the long term due to misbehaviour or outright criminal attitudes of a section of the population, and you use relatively condescending terms for verified thieves.

I think you did not understand my points. I do not condone the way Italians behave. In (b) I was referring to how most Italians see rules, i.e. they are just for fools, a view that I totally disagree with. By 'smart' in (c) I meant those that regard themselves as very clever when, instead of doing the right thing, they find shortcuts through corruption. And you definitively misunderstood me that I was negative about smart and honest Italians that want the best for this Italy, the country of my birth and a place I visit very frequently. My point is that these people are in the minority, and while they continue to elect politicians like Berlusconi they have little hope of bringing Italy to its glorious days.

One year ago Monti came on stage very much like Roman dictators did some 2000 years before. He was supposed to come in for the dirty job: put some long awaited for DISCIPLINE in, eliminate waste, get the h. out of the scene asap. Unfortunately, to sweeten the pill he thought well of promising hairy fairy fairness (in the cuts and taxes), growth for the younger generation (millenials are set to stay home until they are 40 apparently)..and ailed miserably.
Not different from Hollande nor Roj for that matter. Not even different from any other peripheric EU country for that matter.

So the issue is not about Berlusconi: it is about any smarty panty negotiator that finds the current circumstances ready to be exploited for personal benefit. Berlusconi could try and buy the Florence mayor that has just lost for the leadership of the left, or he could stir up the old Lega, or ry any other trick like the other Grillo is trying.

Italians need to reach a much lower standard of living than today before they get rid of this waste of political class they allowed to encroach. Hunger is the answer.

You are correct, I am no constitutional expert of my own country never mind Italy's.

My point however recalls the articles and blogs we were writing here one year ago when discussing the historic parallel of "dictatorship". Something that in Roman times was a POSITIVE trait and that was indeed required of several "technocrats" around Europe, of which Monti is just one. Apologies.

"Monti was in it for himself.......if he had integrity, he would forego forever this sham of a pension"

Agreed. But that is exactly the point of Monti's government (aside from providing an alternative to collapse under Berlusconi): Monti was produced by the Roman political class of Left, Right and Centre to attempt to save the national finances WITHOUT having to touch the golden pensions - which is probably the only thing our senators and deputies are really concerned about.
He has therefore failed. He has shown the outside world that Italy has many resources, intellectual, financial and political - thus staving off the speculative pressures on our bond markets. But he has only been able to reduce the deficit to 2.5% this year and perhaps 1.5% next year.
That is wholly insufficient. At this rate, it will take us another three years to achieve a 1%-2% budget surplus - necessary to begin reducing our debt levels credibly.
And, there is no way our companies and factories can survive another 3 years or more of these levels of taxation.

Ergo, there is no way we can save Italy without serious pension reform: at 16.6% of gdp, our pension expenses are at least 4.5% of gdp higher than every other country in the world. Either the pensions are slashed (beginning with the Golden Pensions) or the Italian state will go bankrupt.

Perhaps my hope in Bersani will be betrayed. But someone among the former Communists still has to explain to me where Gramsci, Togliatti or Berlinguer ever defended such exaggerated pensions - which are an insult to anybody who ever had to work for a living in any country.

Mario Monti's government has been in its closing stages before this blue-sky thunder. Some reckoned it couldn't even get some of its pet projects through for sheer lack of time (the reform of local government is one). The countdown already in progress may explain the (so far) muted reaction of bond markets, as sovereign spreads did rise but after falling very sharply.
Moreover, the fiscal squeeze already imposed on taxpayers has been enough to convince investors about Italy's resolve to put the house in order, and that's little or nothing future governments can do to reverse the process.
As for purely political implications, Berlusconi's move may be aimed at stealing the scene from the Left, whose image was probably boosted by its primary elections and looks forward to starting the campaign. For this move to be really successful, however, he needs a much broader support from his former allies than it seems to be the case right now.

After one year of provocations towards the centreright that is holding him up,of subliminal messages intended to push the electors to vote for the TRUE EMISSARY OF THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCE,THE PD at the next elections,an attempt of the so called "magistrates"(a bunch of reds intruded into the magistrature)to force the normal end of the magistrature to allow to the PD mob ring to hold and conserve forever his power and that of the international banks and multinational companies whose is the referent,by using the above mentioned magistrates and the junk press specialized in defamations and scandals,after all this the PDL has lost his patience.Useless to say that DJILAS is wildly dreaming.The leftist coalitions won't have the majority,the hostile attitude of Vendola toward the US and NATO politics will force the PD to form a Monti style majority(without MOnti,of course,and his bankers camoufled as ministers) after the next useless elections,and call the centreright to back it.Best for us:the "markets" are just waiting an opportunity to attack Italy with an excuse,and the PD absolutely capable of giving them that opportunity.AS for Berlusconi,his results compared with those of Monti are simply marvelous.The jobless rate lower by 30%,sales bigger by 10,the GDP higher by 3,and so on.Berlusconi wasn't a genius:the genius is Monti.Only a genius would have reached his results,that are pushing the majority of us to think to his government as a nightmare to be ended as soon as possible

The analysis of Luigi is simply inconsistent. What do you mean comparing the macroeconomic factors in short-term effect? Make this simple comparison: you get drunk and you feel perfect, you wake up the day after and you feel bad. It means that when is better continuing to drink rather than going to sleep?

Luigi, Luigi, naughty Luigi. You had Silvio sweating over the stove of Italian economy since Forza Italia in 1994. He has personally made an institution of corruption, 'bustarelle', along with ensuring the prosperity of criminal organizations like mafia, 'ndragheta and camorra. He added a sprinkle of corrupt and laughable behaviour in all level of Italian administration where 'tette e bei culi' were sufficient qualifications for women to be promoted to prestigious positions, and pimps that provided girls for bunga-bunga parties were rewarded with well paid public office. And after some 17 years of malpractice in this kitchen from hell, when almost everything is spoiled, you blame the latest arrival in the kitchen for the mess the food is in. Monti is trying to salvage what's salvageable, but those ungrateful, ignorant and gullible amongst the Italians will never understand. Monti should be thanked and the Italian public should demand his administration stays on for at least another 4 years. Populist policies, e.g. that banks are the cause of the problems or it's all due to those commies, will get Italy nowhere fast. Just in case Italians haven't understood, the alternative to austerity measures is 'la fame'. Which do you prefer for your family, belt tightening or famine? Make your choice!

I'm really tired to hear Monti was not elected. Since 1946, no Italian PM has ever been elected directly from the people - not a single one. For Italy's Constitution puts the choice of the PM in the hands of the President of the Republic. Parliament has the last word in that it can refuse the PM-designate or dismiss them with a vote of confidence at any time. The Constitution was followed strictly when the President appointed Monti.
The real point is, after the initial emergency measures Monti soon lost the people's support because he didn't move on to suppress the political class's privileges. He struck ordinary pensioners earning less than €1,000 per month but left alone the more-than-20-times-that-worth monthly compensation of Parliamentarians and other assorted political and finance-industry parasytes.
Italians understand they must make sacrifices to get the country off the hook. But fairness is needed, and Monti doesn't provide any.

Never understood where this Italian mind-set comes from: "there are people cheating on taxes, THUS I am entitled to cheat on taxes".
Italy needs hard reforms and Monti window dressed the reform program but did not achieve something relevant. This is the reason why the Italian sovereigns fall, no matter which government will come. Monti was Italy's opportunity to clean its mess and Monti's government failed. If he failed, so will the following governments, be they leftish or rightish.
What I am tired of, are stories about pensionado's in poverty and young, bright intelligent, hard working people who do not get jobs due to responsabilities oustide themselves. It's always the church, the government, the system or some other impersonal entity which is to blame. Italians have no clue about personal responsability, other than to have others (Germans or other Northern Europeans) to pay their bills.

Italians pay more tax than Germans as a share of Gdp (check the facts!). No wonder we'd like to pay less. Nobody pays quite as much as the Italians in the world except the Danes - and the Danes get a lot more from the State in return.
You can always say it's the Italians' fault. Why don't we elect a government that may give us less tax and more carrot? The sad fact is that Italian democracy has been withering some 20 years now. No less than a revolution is needed to restore it.

"Italy is a net contributor..."...true. But not the biggest payer, which is Luxemburg, followed by Germany and Holland.
"It has not called for bail-outs"...oh???? What about the cry for Eurobonds when the Btp was skt-high...Let me guess...pure, uninterested christian love....LOL.
"we are all Europeans"...no , we are not. I wouldn't know what or who an European is...an Italian? Hopefully not. A Britton or a German?
As to paying Italian bills...well..it is common knowledge...

Oh, joy, did you learn economics on Wikipedia? Tax and GDP are economicallt quite separate things.
Yes, in theory the percentage an Italian SHOULD pay in taxes is higher than that of many countries. There are two fundamental differences though:
1. Germans (and many others) DO PAY their taxes, Italians evade colectivelly. This is why your tax percentages are high: because many people do not pay.
2. Italians expect each and every thing to be taken care by "lo stato". Pension ages are among the lowest in Europe, while Italian population is the most aged in Europe. Health care is state owned, instruction is state owned, etc. It is obvious that if you work 20 years and expect to get a pension till your 89, someone will need to pay for it. Through taxes.
What happens in Italy is the Italians'fault. What happens in greece is greeks'fault. The prblem is that Italians are used to consider victory as personal achievement and losses as some else's responsability. (Preferably Germany's when it comes to the bad state of the italian economy.).

""we are all Europeans"...no , we are not. I wouldn't know what or who an European is...an Italian? Hopefully not. A Britton or a German?"

The idea of Europe was born in Italy a good many years before you were born. I'm not mentioning just how many because there's some evidence in your posts that you can't count that many.

You're arguing childishly when you concede that Italy is a net EU budget contributor but rush to add "But not the biggest payer". A net contributor is not a country that is getting foreign help--which was my point. Grow up, my boy!

I learnt economics in a good University, and I also taught Economics in a University or two. "Tax and GDP are economicallt quite separate things", you write. How profound of you. Next thing you'll know, you'll be discovering that angels and mountains are quite separate things too. Or oceans and sedan cars.

I'll take the pain to define the Tax Ratio for you: Total amount of tax revenue, divided by GDP. You produce 100, the State takes 45 in Italy. Tax Ratio, 45%. This is more than anywhere else in Europe bar Denmark. That's what the State /does/ take, not what the law says it should, which is higher in Italy than anywhere else in Europe, including Denmark.

"Italians expect each and every thing to be taken care by 'lo stato'". Unfortunately, Italians have come to expect the State to mess up whatever it touches. However, in any civilized country, the State does take care of health and old age. Do you object to that? Go back to your Stone Age.

"The prblem is that Italians are used to consider victory as personal achievement and losses as some else's responsability. (Preferably Germany's when it comes to the bad state of the italian economy.)" This makes me think you're a German. In that case, my compliments: I've never before met any German that was as ... as you.

In the very likely case that you didn't understand the irony because of your IQ, the "..." do not hint at a positive quality.

In case you don't know what a positive quality is, just stop looking at your mirror: no matter how long you try, you won't see any there.

Irony again, I'm afraid. But you can always ask your nurse to explain it to you. She's paid to help with people like you.

"What happens in Italy is the Italians' fault." What happens in your bigot brain appears to be the fault of another German, Alzheimer.

"An early election would scupper plans for a primary ballot in the PdL that risked delivering control of his party to another. It would also block the approval of a new electoral law."

The author is apparently grossly misinformed.

Over the last weeks, Berlusconi was mulling the possibility of creating a new party, leaving all the old politicians of dubious loyalty in the PdL (that berlusconi basically left to its own devices months ago)and getting on board new faces. Also, the primary ballot had already been scrapped for all practical purposes days ago, with only an half unknown politician called Meloni insisting on it.

In fact, it is much more likely that the move comes from the present higher ups of the PdL trying to preempt Berlusconi to go his own way and undercut him, forcing a vote before he has time to re-organize himself. In fact, with the present electoral system (the movement to reform which has conveniently died over the last week), it's the secretaries of the parties (for the PdL, Alfano, NOT Berlusconi) to make the electoral lists.

Incidentally, another gross misunderstanding of the author: the move for reforming the electoral system died not because of Berlusconi, but because the present system satisfies both Alfano and Bersani, who emerged once again as secretary of the PD from a bloody primary ballot last week and will now be able to choose the candidates he wishes for his parties, rewarding the ones who have been closed to him during the ballot (including the other primary runners who dropped out after the first round, all endorsing him)and definitely sidelining his young opponent, Renzi, and his side of the party.

What do you expect? The country is now run by a merchant banks'dummy (a former Goldman Sachs advisor!)and thanks to him Italy is going through a certain 'hunting close season'. That the reason of the low spread and the so called 'credibility' of Italy's present situation. The banks want Monti to go on with his government although he in this year has done nothing apart from having intruced a lot of taxes. We know of no spectacle so ridiculous as Monti when he says that he has saved Italy from the disaster or that he sees a light at the end of the tunnel. But next year the country will probably be run by a a former communist, Mr Bersani, and then the people have to be ready for the worst: the markets, the rating agencies will all then open fire against Italy. They will rightly lash the hell against a country run by communists, if they are not silly and do not want to lose their money. You can't back the wrong horse!

Italy run by a former communist! Horror! But come to think of it -- the Us was on one occasion run by a former militant leftist called Ronald Reagan (yes...! in his youth...), and the USSR by a communist called Gorbatchov. Neither suffered all that much as a result.

Italy run by a former communist! Horror! But come to think of it -- the Us was on one occasion run by a former militant leftist called Ronald Reagan (yes...! in his youth...), and the USSR by a communist called Gorbatchov. Neither suffered all that much as a result.

You are right. The Italians have a short memory and are exhausted by the crisis. Bersani and the leftists could fool them again and win next poll. Think that more than 30% of the voters have always sympathised with the leftists. Can people be fooler and sillier? I don't believe it.

I agree, you wrote a bitter truth. That's why I think we need the harsh and humiliating control of the North Europeans. It's bitter and humiliating to admit, but with no people but the Italian people the use of the carrot and the stick works so well.

I would bet one month's paycheck that Mr. Berlusconi will not take one-tenth of a percentage point over 16%.

Don't be ridiculous. Italians do not have a short memory and like all voters everywhere will vote according to their pocketbook.

There is absolutely nothing to be afraid of: it is perfectly clear today to all Italian bankers that Mr. Berlusconi's popularity equals the insolvency of their banks.
They should have realised that five years ago - but now the lesson is perfectly clear. How much money do you think the banks will be contributing to defeat Mr. Berlusconi this time?

What all this noise is about is the Vatican (and certain Right-wing Americans) trying to confuse the elections - so that there will be no clear winner and Monti might be invited to stay on.
One might say that Goldman Sachs wants Monti to stay, but far more important than the New York bankers is the Vatican - which aside from Monti (not a secular liberal at all) - has NO CREDIBLE INTERLOCUTOR IN ITALIAN POLITICS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN DECADES.

Do you understand the game now?

The Vatican and their minions are convinced only a Catholic has the right to govern Italy. Except that no Catholic politician is credible - and even if they find one (like Monti), he will not control Berlusconi's TV stations to be able to manipulate the vote.
Very simply, they are unwilling to accept that an atheist like Bersani is about to govern Italy - and probably for a good long time.
That is their problem. Tell the priests, bishops and cardinals to go back to their prayers in the churches and monasteries - and stay out of politics, where they never should have been in the first place.

As for everything else - I am for going to elections immediately: we have waited long enough - any more delay will just be giving the cardinals more time to invent a new candidate.

yes, it's true and exciting. But don't forget (imo) that our worst enemy has always been us ourselves: twice we won, and twice we let Prodi's government fall. I for one have no short memory, and frankly I'm not sure that we (the leftists) will be able to keep us united for five years.

Antonio, my senator once asked Bertinotti's assistant if the stories were true - that Rifondazione was taking money from SB. The response was "And why can't we f--- the capitalists while accepting their money?"

"Remaining united" has mostly been about resisting the corruption - the Right has always looked for vain, corruptible leaders on the Left to accept their money and create confusion within our ranks.
Remember Benito? The editor of the Left's largest newspaper, wholly Neutralist and opposed to the First World War? Angelica Balabanoff, his closest collaborator at the time (she was Assistant Editor at "Avanti!" and did all the work for Benito) later wrote that an agent of the French secret services, Marcel Cachin, paid Benito 12,000 Francs + another 6,000 Francs a month to start a new interventionist newspaper in favour of Italy joining the War.

There is a long history of Leftist leaders selling out in Italy...

BTW, did you know that Walter Veltroni's maternal grandfather (Slovenian from Ljubljana) was Yugoslav King Peter's Ambassador to the Vatican during World War II? That would have made him an important person in the organisation of the Domobranci Slovenian fighters organised by the Archbishop of Ljubljana to fight alongside Mussolini and Hitler's armies...

Milovan, I guess we are attracted by our respective most beloved keys of interpretation: you like to look for a conspiracy (I imagine you thinking "there must be a conspiracy" even when your car doesn't start ;-) ). I like to think that the most of the nonsense actions are done by stupid people - after all stupidity is very common. Bertinotti must be very stupid, his brain must be very little and slow; I imagine he owns the "Kapital", maybe in four or six volumes, bought 50 years ago, and I'm pretty sure the pages are still attached and still to be separated. Sometimes I find myself thinking where our country might be now if Prodi had succeeded! (tons of bitterness)

Better to go soon at the general election. Sooner italian will vote, sooner the PDL weight in Parlamient will drop.
I can't understand why angloxason newspaper continue to describe the leader of M5S Beppe Grillo as a "comedian". Wasn't Berlusconi a former comedian (clever but unfortunatly not honest)?
I simply do not agree on the association comedian-unfittable.
Italy need honest and clever people in the institution. Grillo is clever, reporters should look for if is also honest.

....sooner the communist Bersani with his leftists will come to power and and sooner Italy will plunge into the precipice. Bersani is a former communist. Where in the whole word have communists ruled well? Nowhere. They have always brought famine, poverty, hardship, suffering and despair. With Bersani you will jump out of the frying pan into the fire. With Grillo too.