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Baillieu's halfway report card

Josh Gordon

On Tuesday, Ted Baillieu marks two years in office. State political editor Josh Gordon assesses his performance in key policy areas.

SELLING THE MESSAGE

Grade DImproving but still needs work.

When Ted Baillieu came to power he embarked on a bold experiment: cut the spin and focus on results.

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It was a noble sentiment, but was a crushing failure.

Labor was quick to exploit the situation, accusing Mr Baillieu of being a part-time premier treating the job as a hobby.

After a workmanlike first budget that funded core promises but also added to spending and debt, falling state and federal revenues forced the government to cut jobs, lift fines and slash TAFE funding. If there was a rationale (going into deficit was not seen as an option) Mr Baillieu failed to vigorously prosecute the argument.

The pain inflicted was relatively mild when compared to the cuts imposed by the Kennett government. But the Coalition sustained significant political damage, finishing the year behind Labor in published opinion polls.

Despite some positive achievements, including keeping the budget in surplus, Baillieu is now facing the prospect of leading Victoria's first one-term government since 1955. Insiders blame a failure to both ''sell'' his strengthsand explain the tough decisions.

In recent days Mr Baillieu has stepped up a gear, with daily media appearances generating much-needed positive news after a series of disastrous setbacks.

The big question is whether this positive momentum can be sustained and reverse the government's sliding political fortunes.

DELIVERING FOR BUSINESS

Grade CA solid but uninspiring performance.

Those who work closely with Mr Baillieu say he plays a ''long game''. In the first term, he has built a war chest of budget surpluses that will be used to invest in infrastructure and services as the election approaches without taking on debt.

But the business community says he has failed to provide a plan for the economy, and not consulted. This was surprising for a Liberal leader.

If there was no overarching theme, there were individual achievements, including plans to expand the Port of Melbourne, a new planning strategy and efforts to cut red tape. A proposal for an east-west road link is progressing, although a lack of state and federal funding means work will not start soon.

Business has praised the government for its tough approach to building unions, much-publicised trade missions to India and China and for maintaining surpluses and a AAA credit rating. The state economy also continues to track reasonably well.

But with the manufacturing sector continuing to struggle with the high dollar and global jitters, the government still has a long way to go to bolster its business credentials.

IMPROVING TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY

Grade C+Positive signs but practical results yet to be seen.

Mr Baillieu was elected on a bold promise to restore public faith in politics. Underpinning this were plans for an anti-corruption commission, a freedom of information commissioner and ministerial codes of conduct.

Mr Baillieu can now claim to have delivered – after lengthy delays – although there is no sign of improvement.

While a freedom of information commissioner has been announced, the new officer, career public servant Lynne Bertolini, has restricted powers, with no ability to review decisions by ministers or department heads. The reality is FOI has slipped into a quagmire despite Mr Baillieu's rhetoric in opposition, with an Audit Office report revealing his private office is among the worst offenders for failing to comply with the act.

Legislation for the long-awaited anti-corruption commission has been passed, although a commissioner is yet to be appointed and questions remain about whether the bar for setting up investigations has been set too high.

The government's integrity has been undermined by revelations of a plot to overthrow former police commissioner Simon Overland, hatched from within Deputy Premier Peter Ryan's office, and an Ombudsman's finding that Liberal MP Geoff Shaw used his parliamentary car to run his business.

After being forced to defend the indefensible, Mr Baillieu is now desperately trying to restore the government's battered image and put the past behind him.

DELIVERING FOR FAMILIES

Grade C-Was never going to deliver as promised, but needs to do better

The Coalition was never going to quickly fix problems in key areas such as health and education or meaningfully reduce cost-of-living pressures.

After being elected, some expectation management was required. At best it would be seen to have made progress in key areas, including health and education, but the results have been mixed.

The government's handling of TAFE cuts has been disastrous and left the Coalition particularly vulnerable in outer-suburban and regional areas.

A broken promise to make Victoria's teachers the best paid in the nation and efforts to introduce a system of performance pay have alienated the education union.

The government made some bold promises, including 100 new hospital beds and improvements to the ambulance service. But it remains unclear whether the beds have in fact been provided, while the ambulance service remains in crisis.

Although it resolved a bitter dispute with nurses and is investing in new hospital infrastructure, there is a broad consensus that the government's performance has been lacklustre.

The Baillieu government will need to improve its performance over the next two years to convince struggling Victorian families it cares.

PLANNING AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Grade CStrong efforts in planning but disappointing performance on the environment.

Planning has been one of the government's busiest portfolios. From day one, Matthew Guy was on a mission.

In two years, the government has expanded Melbourne's urban growth boundary and released land for regional housing, it has fast-tracked the planning permit process for small planning applications and re-written planning zones in the biggest planning shake-up in Victoria for more than a decade.

But Mr Guy has been slow to act on the government's promised metropolitan planning strategy, raising questions about whether the Government has a broader strategy to tackle population growth without harming Melbourne's liveability.

The government also remains committed to developing the Port of Hastings, despite advice from the Transport Department that a site on the opposite side of the bay near Werribee could have advantages.

The environment also remains a weak spot. In the minds of many voters, the government's most prominent environmental policy has been an attempt to introduce cattle to the Alpine National Park. It has also abandoned a state-based target for greenhouse gas reductions, cut subsidies for solar energy and moved to water down rules for protecting biodiversity in logging operations.

But achievements include extra money to improve waterways, efforts to control weeds and feral animals and efforts to cut landfill.

Law and order was a key part of the Baillieu government's 2010 pitch, amid perceptions – if not reality – that Melbourne is less safe than it once was.

There have been plans for a new prison, 1700 extra police and 940 Protective Services Officers for train stations after dark. Attorney-General Robert Clark has been particularly active, bringing in mandatory minimum sentences for juvenile offenders who commit acts of gross violence and abolishing suspended sentences, among other things.

Mr Clark has also expanded the power of judges and magistrates to put people on community-based orders, thereby keeping them out of prisons. He's also introduced anti-association laws aimed at cracking down on criminal bikies – a policy which has driven civil libertarians and the law institute crazy. The government has also spent up big on CCTV cameras for local councils.

10 comments so far

"After a workmanlike first budget that funded core promises..." surely you are joking, the police had industrial action to receive their core promise as did the nurses, teachers are still waiting. Then there's the budget surplus, only obtained by stripping funds from TAC and other agencies. Ted will be a one term premier unless he lifts his game.

Commenter

Ken of the Outer East

Date and time

November 24, 2012, 12:26PM

I've wavered in my opinion of Ted between thinking that he's simply continuing Jeff's slash and burn approach, coloured by a real class based view of the world (see education), or thinking that he's just plain incompetent.

Education;Grade: F (fail)Broken 2010 pledge to make Victorian teachers " amongst the best paid teachers, in Australia"Increasing school closures

Overall performance, poor -must do much better, if hoping to succeed.

Commenter

Bionic

Location

Wantirna

Date and time

November 24, 2012, 1:32PM

Clearly mainstream education doesn't work for Ted, so I suggest his guardians consider an alternative like possibly a TAFE course - there might be one left to bring out his hidden talents - and, failing that, try Steiner - but remember to drop him off in the Renault or Volvo - too much ostentation doesn't go down well. Thank God the teachers aren't writing comments on the reports this year - Ted could be scarred for life.

Commenter

Christopher

Date and time

November 26, 2012, 10:13AM

He's a bourgeois through and through of course but he has long lost any snese of 'noblesse oblige' if he ever had any by Josh Gordon's asessment and I'm guessing most voters are likely to agree. The "small target" line in the age of anarchic communications peddled by his media minders seems to be effective, though the obvious question emerges, if you're made small, who's going to believe you can think big, Ted? Surely, we need more Independent thinkers in government, not shills for the wealthy and shameless.

Commenter

Perk_Cartel

Location

Westgarth

Date and time

November 24, 2012, 1:38PM

I'd put planning at F. When is Mr Guy going to clean up the building industry? When will the Building Act 1993 be replaced? The cronyism at the BPB is astounding with dodgy builders knowing the system and walking away scot free while honest, law abiding citizens are left financially ruined.

Don't bother asking for my vote, I'd rather vote for Tom and Jerry!

Commenter

LM

Location

Melbourne

Date and time

November 24, 2012, 2:39PM

Ted Baillieu has a sterotypical upper middle class born to rule attitude . He pretends to like migrants, only likes women who are adornments, and prefers the company of young men with whom he is comfortable. Diagnosis is that he is socially awkward and dislikes mixing with real people. With the line up of incompetents in his cabinet , and too many light weight MPs, he is unlikely to survive the election.

Commenter

Elenore

Location

Narre Warren

Date and time

November 25, 2012, 3:13AM

Eleanore, how could anyone be comfortable in the same precinct, let alone Party or room, with the Minister in Short Pants? i presumed you were speaking of him in saying Baillieu likes the company of younger men. And talking about light-weight MPs, how about deadweight ones like Geoff Shaw.Abolish political donations, State Governments or both.

Commenter

Christopher

Date and time

November 26, 2012, 10:18AM

While I can see a massive improvement in public transport - well even my dog could have done better than Labor - I still have concerns on public safety - I really don't care how well he markets his efforts so I don't know why that was in the report card - I am more concerned on whether he can do the job - he needs a second term so that he gets a chance to show us what he can do when he has a better budget - but needs to be reviewed harshly at the end of the second term. I guess we still have the AAA credit rating and I doubt we would have kept that under the Brumby government.

Commenter

Stephen

Location

melbourne

Date and time

November 25, 2012, 2:16PM

Stephen, Baillieu's form of austerity is ripping the guts out of what experience was being regenerated in the public service after Kennett paid all the committed and brainy public servants to leave. And as you know all too well, liberals don't actually do anything - they just stop other people doing stuff. That's their creative ideological position - so don't hold your breath about next term for one-term wonder, Pothole Baillieu.