Pages

Overview: The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.6765. On the H1 chart, the level of 0.6765 coincides with 23.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is above the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. But, major support is seen at the level of 0.6735. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 0.6735 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6842. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.6842, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.6911 in order to test the double top.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Buyers of the pound will be interested in the support level of 1.3036 in the afternoon, but it is best to open long positions when a false breakdown is formed. In a different scenario, purchases will be relevant to the rebound from the monthly low around 1.2988. The challenge for the bulls is still the resistance of 1.3111. Only its breakthrough will resume the upward correction in GBP/USD with the target at 1.3160 and 1.3195.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Given the uncertainty with Brexit and the probability of an exit scenario without an agreement, the pressure on the pound will remain but it is best to open short positions after updating large resistance levels in the area of 1.3111 and 1.3160. The task of the bears in the afternoon will be a breakthrough and consolidation below the good support of 1.3036, which will lead to an immediate sale of the pound to the area of the minimum of 1.2988 and to update the area of 1.2950, where I recommend fixing the profits.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market with a bearish advantage.

Bollinger bands

Breakthrough of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.3036 will lead to a new wave of the pound decline.

Trading continues above the support at 1.1248, and demand for the euro remains but the main goal for the second half of the day will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1284, which will lead to an update of the maximum in the area of 1.1324 and 1.1358, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of EUR/USD decline in the second half of the day, it is best to look at long positions on a false breakdown around 1.1246 or buy immediately on a rebound from a minimum of 1.1212.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Bears will show themselves only after the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1284, which will lead to a resumption of pressure on the euro and a decrease in the support area of 1.1245. However, the main task of sellers will be to break the level of 1.1245 and the minimum test in the area of 1.1212, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the EUR/USD growth scenario above 1.1284 in the afternoon, it is best to consider short positions on the rebound from the maximum of 1.1324.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the upward correction is maintained.

Bollinger bands

In case of a decrease, the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1255 will provide support.

The aggravation of the military conflict in Libya has become a catalyst for the rise in oil prices to 5-month highs. The volume of production in this country is about 1.1 million b/s, which is equivalent to about 1% of the global figure, so concerns about supply disruptions naturally played into the hands of the "bulls" on Brent and WTI. The rise in the geopolitical risk premium is an important driver of the rally of futures for black gold, although, of course, the main reason for the more than 30% increase in the cost of both varieties since the beginning of the year should be sought in the effective actions of OPEC.

In contrast to 2017, when very similar to the current agreement on the reduction of production did not lead to a rapid March of oil to the North. In 2019, Saudi Arabia and its allies easily cope with the task of stabilizing the market. Riyadh, which reduced production to a 4-year low of 9.82 million b/s and does not stop reducing exports, acts as the main Skirmisher. It is assisted by US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, as well as the tense situation in the Middle East, including Libya.

Oil reaction to OPEC production cuts

Of the two evils, one has to choose the smallest one, so when a dilemma arose between unwanted help from American manufacturers and the need to improve the budget of OPEC countries, the cartel chose the second option. US oil companies have created favorable conditions, but Saudi Arabia and other countries have received more or less acceptable oil prices for local economies. Russia, which is somewhere in the middle, believes that the process has gone too far and there is no point in helping the States further. According to the Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak, if the market was able to balance, then you should not extend the agreement to reduce production for the second half of the year.

Goldman Sachs believes that the cost of Brent above $70 per barrel signals an increase in the deficit. The bank raised its forecast for the average price of the North Sea variety in the second quarter from $65 to $72.5, but believes that the situation will change dramatically in July-December. Oil will fall due to increased American production. Moreover, the first signs of oversaturation in the US black gold market are already visible: if the forecast of Bloomberg experts of the growth of US by 2.5 million barrels in the week to April 5 comes true, the figure will increase for the third five days in a row.

One of the important drivers of the Brent and WTI rally was the growth of hopes for ending the US-Chinese trade war, which should potentially increase global oil demand. Donald Trump, instead of the usual applications on Twitter, decided to indicate his desire to provoke a trade conflict with the EU. Washington's intention to impose duties on $11 billion European imports could be the first step in a new war.

Technically, as expected, the inability of the bears to keep Brent quotes below $68.5 a barrel was evidence of their weakness and allowed the bulls to continue the rally towards $72.8 as part of the correction to the Shark pattern's CD wave.

BTC has been trading continues to trade sideways at the price of $5.192 and with very slow momentum. BTC is in indecision zone and we would need further confirmation before the next direction.

According to the H1 time-frame, we found that ADX reading is below 30 and, which is sign that short-term trend is weak and sideways price action is present. We found potential for ascending triangle in creation but the price would need to break the resistance at $5.326 and then successfully test it before we start to buy again. If the resistance at the price of $5.326 holds, sell off will be possible. The breakout of the support at $5.000 may confirm downward scenario and potential test of $4.636.

Trading recommendation: We are neutral but we are closely observing potential breakout of the support or resistance to confirm further direction.

The EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.1280. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.1280 to the bottom around 1.1225. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1280 followed by 1.1310, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1179. According to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.1280 and 1.1180; for that we expect a range of 102 pips. If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1280, the market will decline further to 1.1179. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1137 with a view to test the second support. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.1280 (the double top), then this scenario may become invalidated.

Gold has been trading upwards as we expected. The price tested the level of $1.304.50. We expect further bullish movement and our upward targets to be met.

According to the H4 time-frame, we found that ADX reading at 49 and rising, which is sign of the strong short-term bullish trend and strong upside momentum. Also, in the background, we found the breakout of 16h balance, which even adds more upside potential. Support levels are seen at the price of $1.293.00 and $1.284.00. Resistance levels are seen at the price of $1.310.00, $1.316.10 and $1.322.10.

Trading recommendation: We are still holding our long position the Gold from $1.300.00 and with targets at $1.310.55 and $1.316.00. Protective stop is placed at $1.292.00.

Bitcoin is undergoing correction at near $5,250 since it reached there amid the impulsive bullish momentum. Though the price is corrective and volatile currently, BTC is trading firmly above $5,000 that showcases the strength of bulls.

The price recently showed certain rejection off the Kumo Cloud support area which successfully managed to push the price higher. The dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line are acting as resistance currently while Chikou Span is trapped inside the price line. Despite such developments, the price will face further downward corrections and volatility. Though the price is trading below $5,250 now, a break above this price with a daily close will reinforce impulsive bullish pressure with a target towards $5,500 in the coming days. As the price remains above $5,000 with a daily close, BTC will signal a further overall bullish bias.

EUR/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1280. We are expecting more upside movement during the day.

According to the H1 time-frame, we found that ADX reading above the 30 level, which is sign of the strong trend and the momentum. You have much greater odds for profit with trading together with momentum and the trend. Most recently, we found that breakout of the intraday bullish flag in the background, which is confirmation that trend is stable and that more upside movement is expected. Support level is seen at the price of 1.1255 and 1.1245. Resistance levels are seen at the price of 1.1293 and 1.1315.

Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.1278 with the targets at 1.1293 and 1.1315. Protective stop is placed below 1.1250.

The currency pair GBP/USD has again adjusted to the moving average line and can easily overcome it, considering the "swings" that we have seen in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the UK has passed a law that obliges Theresa May to request a deferment of Brexit from the European Union. By and large, this law is nothing more than insurance against a possible "tough" Brexit scenario. London, asking for a postponement was clear to everyone and without the relevant law. However, Theresa May has much less room for maneuver now, her duties are clearly spelled out in the new law. Now we need to wait for the reaction of the European Union, which also offers a postponement, but at least a year. In the coming days, information will be received on which agreement the parties will come to in this matter. Based on this decision, it will be possible to assume further developments. In the meantime, the downtrend for the pair remains, but there are serious problems with overcoming Murray's level of "5/8" - 1.3000. There were already three unsuccessful attempts to overcome. Thus, while the price is below the MA, you can count on a fourth attempt. However, leaving the pair higher than the MA can mean that they are ready to grow by 50-100 points. This was the end of the previous two fixations above the MA.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3062

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3123

R2 - 1.3184

R3 - 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD has started a new round of upward correction. Traders are now completely confused since it is completely incomprehensible how Brexit will end. Accordingly, few people consider long-term and medium-term positions. Short positions with a target at 1.3000 after the completion of the next round of correction are relevant.

Buy positions can be considered after the pair is fixed above the moving average, but only with a "short" target – 1.3184.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

On Tuesday, April 9, the currency pair EUR/USD overcame the moving average line and thus began an uptrend. It would be possible to link this event with the upcoming ECB meeting if market participants could expect at least some positive information from the European regulator. However, nothing of the kind is expected from the Central Bank. According to many experts, inflation in the Eurozone is not only at a low level now but will remain so in the coming years. GDP growth rates are present, but again they are not too high. Some EU economies are on the verge of recession, and most recently the ECB announced the launch of a new LTRO program. Thus, according to the most optimistic forecasts, the regulator will begin to tighten monetary policy no earlier than next year. This is a very optimistic forecast. Accordingly, the main event will not be the results of the meeting, but a press conference at which we can hear any new information on monetary policy. As for today, no important macroeconomic reports are planned. Will the euro continue to strengthen in these conditions? It is hard to say. So far, the growth of the euro looks like a banal technical correction, and a rather weak one. Both linear regression channels clearly indicate the direction of the main trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1261

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1200

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1292

R2 - 1.1322

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has started an upward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to consider trading for a raise with targets at 1.1292 and 1.1322, before the Heiken-Ashi indicator turns down.

Short positions are recommended to be opened not earlier than the reverse consolidation of the pair below the moving with the targets at 1.1200 and 1.1169. In this case, the downward trend in the pair may resume.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

On April 8, the GBP/USD pair gained about 25 bp but remains within the narrowing triangle. In the near future, the tool may leave this triangle and mark the direction of movement for several days. Based on the current wave marking and the news background, it is more preferable to build a downward wave. This requires a successful attempt to break the bottom line of the triangle. The Brexit theme is still very important, but there have been no new messages over the past day. In the coming days, Theresa May will negotiate with the European Union about the postponement of the Brexit date in order to be able to try again to reach an agreement with the Parliament on accepting her version of an agreement with the European Union.

Targets for purchases:

1.3350 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3454 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Targets for sales:

1.2961 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

Wave pattern involves the construction of a downward trend section. However, as long as the pair does not break through one of the lines of the triangle, trading will take place inside it, which limits the markets in the possibility of opening deals "for the future". A break of one of the triangle lines will be a strong enough signal to buy or sell.

On Monday, April 8, trading ended with an increase of 40 bp for the pair EUR/USD. Thus, it is possible that the pair has finally moved to the construction of the expected wave from the upward segment of the trend, which begins on March 7. If this assumption is true, then the increase in quotations will continue with targets around 1.1450 and above. At the same time, I draw attention to the fact that the news background still cannot be attributed to the euro, and the ECB will hold a press conference tomorrow dedicated to the meeting. It is unlikely that the markets will hear something "hawkish" in the speeches of the representatives of the ECB and Mario Draghi. Accordingly, tomorrow the pair may be under pressure from the market. Today, there is no news on the calendar.

Sales targets:

1.1177 - 100.0% Fibonacci

Purchase targets:

1.1448 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

Presumably, the pair completed the formation of wave b and proceeded to the construction of wave c. Now, I recommend buying a pair with targets near the mark of 1.1455, which corresponds to the maximum of wave a, based on the construction of wave c. Purchase does not have to be large in size, as the news background still does not support the euro.

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair completed closing above the retracement level of 76.4% (1.1241) on the third attempt. As a result, on April 9, the growth of the pair continues in the direction of the next Fibo level of 61.8% (1.1281). Today, emerging divergence is not observed in any indicator. The rebound from the level of 61.8% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the American dollar and a return to the retracement level of 76.4%. Closing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the chances of further growth in the direction of the retracement level of 50.0% (1.1313).

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Daily

As seen on the 24-hour chart, the pair retains chances of resuming the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.0941) as long as the quotes remain below the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1285). The closing of the pair above the Fibo level of 127.2% can be interpreted as a turn in favor of the European currency and expect some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1553). There are no emerging divergences today.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Trading advice:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with targets at 1.1281 and 1.1313 as the pair completed consolidation above the retracement level of 76.4%. The stop loss order should be placed under the level of 1.1241.

Sell deals on EUR/USD can be opened with the target at 1.1241 if the pair rebounds from the level of 61.8%. The stop loss order should be placed above the level of 1.1281.

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD continues the growth process in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3094), after the formation of the bullish divergence of the MACD indicator. The rebound of the pair on April 9 from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow counting on a turn in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of a fall in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.2969). Closing the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the likelihood of further growth in the direction of the next retracement level of 100.0% (1.3300).

The Fibo grid is based on the grounds from the extremums of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

As seen on the hourly chart, the quotes of the pair, after rebounding from the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.3046), resumed the growth process in the direction of the retracement level of 38.2% (1.3087). The rebound of quotations from the level of 38.2% will work in favor of the American currency and the beginning of a fall in the direction of the level of 23.6%. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today. Fixing the rate above the Fibo level of 38.2% will increase the chances of continued growth in the direction of the retracement level of 50.0% (1.3122).

The Fibo grid is based on the grounds from the extremums of March 27, 2019, and March 29, 2019.

Trading recommendations:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3122 and a stop-loss order under the retracement level of 38.2% if the pair closes above 1.3087 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3046 and a stop-loss order above the level of 38.2% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.3087 (hourly chart).

The euro strengthened slightly against the US dollar and went out of the trading range, breaking the level of 1.1250. However, in order to maintain further growth, new good fundamental data are required, indicating a revival of the European economy, or similar statements from the European Central Bank at tomorrow's meeting.

Yesterday, a report was released indicating that the pace of Germany's foreign trade in February of this year slowed significantly against the background of international trade conflicts.

According to the report of the Federal Bureau of Statistics of Germany, exports of goods in February decreased by 1.3% compared with January, while imports of goods to Germany in February decreased by 1.6%. Germany's foreign trade surplus amounted to 18.7 billion euros against 18.5 billion euros in January. Germany's current account surplus in February was 16.3 billion euros.

Given the lack of important fundamental statistics, the report on orders for manufacturing goods in the United States, which did not allow the US dollar to regain lost positions against the euro in the morning.

According to the US Department of Commerce, orders for manufactured goods in the United States in February 2019 decreased by 0.5% to $ 497.47 billion. The data completely coincided with economists' forecasts. Excluding transportation, production orders in February rose by 0.3%.

The US employment index report was ignored by the market. According to the Conference Board, the index of employment trends in the US for February was revised to 111.62 points from 111.15 points.

Yesterday, a number of statements were made by the US trade representative, who proposed to introduce duties on imports from the EU worth 11 billion dollars. He also noted that the list of fees may change, as much will depend on the WTO decision regarding subsidies for Airbus.

As for the current technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it is quite possible that the situation will not seriously change until tomorrow's ECB meeting. However, a break of 1.1290 euro resistance could maintain an upward trend in the pair, which will lead to a test of highs around 1.1325 and 1.1390. Buyers will protect the support level of 1.1240, but a breakthrough could lead to a larger sale of risky assets with a test of the lows of 1.1210 and 1.1150.

The Canadian dollar rose sharply against the US dollar after data that the growth of new home mortgages in Canada has seriously recovered in March this year. According to the report, bookmarks for new homes in March increased by 15.8% compared with February and amounted to 192,527 homes. Economists had expected 194,000 bookmarks in March.

Buyers of the pound managed to gain a foothold above the resistance of 1.3070, but good news on Brexit is needed to continue the upward trend. Only this will update the highs at 1.3112 and 1.3160, where I recommend fixing the profit. In case of GBP/USD decline in the first half of the day below the level of 1.3070, you can open long positions on the rebound from the low of 1.3034, and best of all from the area of 1.2988, which coincides with the monthly lows.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Bears will seek to return to the support level of 1.3070, which will lead to a larger sale of the pound in the area of the lows of 1.3034 and 1.2988, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the pound growth scenario, only the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3112 will be a signal to open short positions. In a different scenario, selling GBP/USD is best on a rebound from the high of 1.3160.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is just above 30 and 50 moving averages, but it is too early to talk about the formation of a new uptrend.

Bollinger Bands

In the scenario of the next wave of the pound decline, the support will be provided by the lower limit of the indicator around 1.3034.

As expected, the breakthrough of the former resistance in the area of 1.1245 led to the growth of the euro and beyond the limits of the side channel. While trading above this range, the demand for the euro will remain, which will lead to an update of the highs in the area of 1.1284 and 1.1324, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of a decline in the euro in the first half of the day, it is best to consider new long positions if a false breakdown is formed in the support area of 1.1245 or to rebound from a larger minimum in the area of 1.1212.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Bears will manifest themselves after the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1284, which will lead to renewed pressure on the euro and a decrease in the support area of 1.1245. However, the main task of sellers will be to break the level of 1.1245 and the minimum test in the area of 1.1212, where I recommend fixing the profit. In a scenario of growth of EUR/USD above the 1.1284 in the first half of the day, it is best to consider short positions on a rebound from the maximum of 1.1324.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which keeps the bull correction in the euro.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a pair decline, support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1245.

"Foggy Albion" is therefore foggy, as it can perfectly cast a shadow on the fence, achieving its own - if by hook or by crook.

The British parliament approved the Brexit transfer after a rather difficult debate, and it seems that the United Kingdom will have a chance to postpone its hypothetical exit from the EU for another year, and if the mountain does not go to Mohammed, then Mohammed will come to the mountain.

It can be said with great confidence that Prime Minister T. May fulfilled her function, which was to discredit the very idea of Brexit and ultimately achieve the preservation of the country's membership in the European Union. The Prime Minister personally did, as it may seem strange, everything for this, although she verbally stated that she was a supporter of Brexit. She shook the negotiation process with Brussels, bringing it to the point of absurdity, while intimidating the British and continental Europe with consequences, which, most likely, in the future could be the basis for a new referendum, which will win the supporters of the preservation of the United Kingdom in the EU.

In fact, we can say that May did everything in order not to fulfill the will of the British people following the referendum on the country's withdrawal from the EU, which, we recall, took place in 2016.

Now, we will consider the probable consequences of the British on the local economy and the currency worthy of the pen of William Shakespeare.

In our opinion, the EU may decide to extend the Brexit theme for another year, but will this help the British economy?

It seems to us that the local business has received a serious blow, and the hang of this problem for another year without any definite certainty will only destroy the country's economy. In this case, the Bank of England will be faced with the need to support it with all available means, which will primarily cause a lack of desire to raise interest rates, which previously could really happen, but did not happen precisely because of Brexit. In this case, the British pound will not receive support. In the future, the likely reduction of interest rates in the US may even force the local regulator to also go to their reduction in order to somehow make British exports competitive in the world market.0 At best, the sterling will continue to move further in the range relative to the American currency, remaining under the pressure of the Brexit uncertainty factor.

Forecast of the day:

The AUDUSD pair is trading with an increase in the wave of two factors, on the one hand, new expectations for the future reduction of the Fed interest rates, and on the other, the conclusion of a trade agreement between the US and China on trade. The pair will continue to move to our target levels of 0.7145, and then after overcoming this mark to 0.7165.

The USDCAD pair may continue to fall on the expected weakness of the dollar and the growth of oil prices. We consider it possible to sell the pair after it overcomes the level of 1.3300 with the target of 1.3250.

Rumors and gossip continue to dominate the minds of market participants. Also, the expectation of the unknown. So, although Jeremy Corbyn criticized Theresa May yesterday for the fact that, despite her conciliatory statements, she continues to remain in her positions and does not intend to make concessions on a number of issues. In particular, we are talking about the UK's membership in the Customs Union, even after leaving the European Union. This implies that the United Kingdom will continue to adhere to a number of European regulations in the area of trade and labor law. Laborites demand that they should be abandoned. It turns out that the leader of the Labor Party stated plainly that the negotiations that had just begun between the government and the parliamentary majority immediately reached an impasse, and no movement was even planned from a dead point. Consequently, the "hard" Brexit becomes an increasingly realistic scenario. Market participants were waiting for tomorrow's summit of the European Union, on which too much depends. It is possible that all these negotiations could not have started.

The single European currency suddenly began to grow, although the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty. The reason for the growth was the rumors that the European Central Bank, whose board meeting will be held tomorrow, may announce a tightening of monetary policy. No, of course, there is no question of raising the refinancing rate, but investors are now more concerned about the fate of long-term lending to European banks, which has become a kind of reincarnation of the quantitative easing program. Let me remind you that almost immediately after the curtailment of the quantitative easing program, Mario Draghi announced the expansion of bank lending. We are talking about long-term lending. It was not clear how long the regulator intends to distribute money to banks. Yesterday, there were rumors that tomorrow Mario Draghi will announce that this maneuver will last for several months, and will be guaranteed to be rolled back by the end of the year. The reliability of such rumors is indicated by the fact that just recently the head of the European Central Bank admitted that the regulator's board was disappointed in the effectiveness of the policy of negative interest rates.

Almost certainly today the market will stand still. The point is not only that the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty, although JOLTS data on open vacancies in the United States will be published. After all, it is expected that the number of open vacancies will remain virtually unchanged, reducing from 7,581 thousand to 7,550 thousand. The whole thing is what should happen tomorrow. This is the summit of the countries of the European Union, during which the issue of a new postponement of Brexit will be considered. The meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank, followed by a press conference of Mario Draghi, where he can make a very important statement. On Wednesday, inflation in the United States is published. So on the threshold of such serious events, investors will prefer to take a wait-and-see attitude. Moreover, there is clarity only with regard to American inflation, which should increase. Both the summit of the countries of the European Union and the meeting of the European Central Bank can end unpredictably, and it is extremely risky to rely only on rumors.

The currency pair EUR/USD continued to form a corrective movement from the level of 1.1180, whereas a result we see a move towards the value of 1.1274, followed by stagnation. It is likely to assume that the turbulence within the limits of 1.1250 / 1.1275 will continue, where traders occupy a certain expectant position in the market.

The currency pair pound/dollar, similar to its fellow euro/dollar, is in the correction phase, from the level of 1.3000, reaching a maximum of 1.3094. It is likely to assume that traders will try to take a pause in anticipation of tomorrow, where at this point do not rule out the buffeting of 1.3050/1.3090.

USD/JPY is trading in the support area between 111.00-50. The price is expected to bounce higher as the impulsive bearish pressure is currently fading slowly.

The US-China trade war and Fed's soft rhetoric on monetary policy suggest that the likelihood of rate cuts by the US central bank could cap USD gains in the medium term. President Donald Trump's top economic adviser disclosed that the trade deal is coming to a close and the US is currently setting the tone in the negotiation. Ahead of CPI report to be published this week, US analysts expect stable inflation, though anticipating higher wages and gas prices. Recently US Average Hourly Earnings report revealed that wage growth is losing momentum. So, the indicator dropped to 0.1% in March from the previous value of 0.4% which was expected to be at 0.3%. Unemployment rate remained unchanged as expected at 3.8%. On the whole, the Non-Farm Employment Change was better than expected with a sharp increase to 196k from the previous minor growth of 33k, much stronger than the forecast for a 172k increase. A solid employment gain in the US private and public sectors on the one hand and an uptick in average hourly eanrings on the other hand signal unstable economic conditions and the labor market.

This week FOMC Meeting Minutes along with Federal Budget Balance report are going to be published on Wednesday. The latter is expected to show a decrease to -194.7B from the previous figure of -234.0B. Another market-moving report is inflation data with a CPI expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.2%.

On Thursday, US PPI report is going to be published. The factory inflation is likely to have risen to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1%. Besides, FOMC Members Clarida and Bullard are going to speak about ongoing and future monetary policy and short-term interest rate decisions. The speeches will make no impact on USD.

Meanwhile, USD is currently quite stronger in comparison to JPY. So, USD is winning favor with investors in the coming days. USD/JPY is likely to trade with higher volatility and price corrections this week. Any positive readings in the pending reports from the US will trigger impulsive bullish pressure in the pair.

While the pair is trading below the NKZ 1/2 1.1285-1.1276, the main direction of trade is the fall. Yesterday's maximum is formed near the specified zone, which may allow finding sales in the false breakdown of this extremum. The first goal of the fall is the minimum of April. This allows you to get a profitable risk-earnings ratio for the sale.

It is important to note that the downward movement remains a medium-term impulse. This indicates a high probability of its continuation.

Breaking the downward structure will require the closure of today's US session above the level of 1.1285. This will open the way for the pair to grow to the March maximum. Work within this model will be possible tomorrow. In case of cancellation of a downward option, it is necessary to get rid of all short positions.

Daily KZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly KZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly KZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

EURUSD as expected has broken through short-term resistance at 1.1220-1.1230 area and has risen towards the first important short-term target of 1.1270. Price has now started making higher highs and higher lows in the 4hour chart.

Red lines - medium-term bearish channel

Green rectangle - support

Black line - short-term resistance trend line (broken)

EURUSD has reversed short-term trend to bullish.As long as price is above 1.12 trend will remain bullish. Medium-term trend remains bearish as price is still inside the downward sloping red channel and below the major resistance of 1.1330-1.1310. Bulls need to exit this bearish red channel and recapture 1.14 in order to hope for a move higher towards 1.15-1.16. Failure to hold above 1.12 will open the way for 1.11.

The EUR/USD pair had rallied through 1.1275/80 levels yesterday before reversing lower. The existing rally from 1.1181 is looking to be 3 waves i.e counter trend. The long positions held from 1.1185/1.1200 levels earlier could be taken off now or around 1.1285 levels. Looking at the wave structure, the drop from 1.1448 through 1.1181 levels could be Wave (1) and Wave (2) is underway which might terminate between 1.1285 and 1.1340/50 levels going forward. Please note that bears could remain in control until prices stay below 1.1448. Hence a safer trading strategy from here could be selling on rallies through 1.1340/50 levels towards the major trend. Aggressive counter trend rally taken earlier may be exited by taking profits around 50-60 pips. The underlying 0.382 to 0.618 fibonacci resistances would provide the required resistance for EUR/USD bears to regain control.

Trading plan:

Take profits on long positions taken earlier. Looking to sell around 1.1285 and 1.1340 levels going forward.

Gold price has broken above short-term resistance and is expected to move towards $1,315. Bulls need to recapture the $1,300 level as soon as possible because the more they stay below it, the lesser are the chances of breaking it, resulting in a rejection.

Black line - resistance trend line

Red rectangle -target

Blue rectangle - short-term resistance (broken)

Green rectangle - major support

Blue lines - bullish divergence

Gold price has respected the support area of $1,290-$1,280 and has produced a bounce towards the $1,300 resistance level. Gold price is expected to continue higher towards $1,315 if bulls can manage to recapture the $1,300-$1,302 level. Inability to break above this area could push Gold price back towards $1,290. Major support remains at $1,290-80 area. Breaking it will open the way for a move towards $1,250-$1,200. This would be an important bearish sign. So as long as price is above it, bulls hope for a new leg higher starting soon. Major resistance is at $1,315-20 area and breaking above it will open the way for a move towards $1,350.

The EUR/USD pair has violated the technical resistance at the level of 1.1249 and made a new local high at the level of 1.1274 so far. The level of 1.1249 was a tough nut the break and now it will act as technical support or the market. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1284 and the positive momentum is supporting the short-term bullish bias.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1316

WR2 - 1.1286

WR1 - 1.1248

Weekly Pivot - 1.1215

WS1 - 1.1175

WS2 - 1.1141

WS3 - 1.1100

Trading recommendations:

The trend remains bearish, so the level of 1.1284 might be a good place to re-enter the sell orders with a tight protective stop loss.

The GBP/USD pair has been trading inside of the range since the middle of the March and so far the price is just bouncing from the technical support around the level of 1.2996 and continues trading in the middle of the range between the levels of 1.2996 - 1.3183. The momentum remains neutral as neither bulls nor bears have control over the market and both sides await the Brexit decision this Thursday. The breakout of the range might be severe.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3339

WR2 - 1.3263

WR1 - 1.3130

Weekly Pivot - 1.3056

WS1 - 1.2826

WS2 - 1.2851

WS3 - 1.2712

Trading recommendations:

The global investors wait for the breakout in either direction and because the range is now very tight, the breakout might be severe. Please notice, the larget time frame trend remains bullish.

The BTC/USD pair might be unfolding the ending diagonal pattern as the wave (5). The two lines on the chart might be helpful to determine whether the pattern has completed yet or not. The nearest support is seen at the level of $5,060 and if this support is violated, then another move down can unfold towards the level of $4, 928. Please notice, that the breakout from the Ending Diagonal pattern is very often sudden and severe, so it is worth to keep an eye on the current developments.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $6,920

WR2 - $6,094

WR1 - $5,671

Weekly Pivot - $4,832

WS1 - $4,470

WS2 - $3,620

WS3 - $3,234

Trading recommendations:

The longer-term buy order should remain open and the protective stop-loss might be moved higher to the level of $4,794. The daytraders should keep an eye on the level of $5,060 as any breakout below this level would indicate a deeper correction and further wave (4) development.

The euro managed to sustain its gains over the yen despite the Eurozone economic slowdown and BREXIT challenges. The only source which has helped the euro to gain momentum during this difficult time is currently the investor morale, while the economic situation remains fragile.

Ahead of the ECB Press Conference and Main Refinancing Rate to be published this week, sustainable gains on the euro side indicate the cumulative strength and market sentiment that the euro has acquired along the way over the yen. Though no policy changes are expected at Wednesday's ECB meeting, but discussion on easing, global recession fears, and German Bonds underperforming for the first time in last 3 years can have a significant impact on the meeting outcome. The Eurozone is currently struggling with many factors and th ECB is expected to be strict with the current process, while the officials seem to be quite worried about the downside risks to growth and inflation forecasts.

Today, the Italian Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -0.2% from the previous value of 0.5%. If the expectations are met, certain weakness of the euro growth may be observed along the way.

As for the yen, the Current Account report has recently showed a certain increase to 1.96T as expected from the previous figure of 1.83T, but Consumer Confidence and Economy Watchers Sentiment have showed results worse than expected which affected the market sentiment. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda is still quite optimistic about the economic growth despite the fact that it is being affected by the recent challenges of exports and imports. Moreover, the Government's reflections on sales tax hike may also lead to lower consumer spending which would affect the long-term economic growth.

Recently, the Bank of Japan has cut its assessment for three of the country's nine regions which is the biggest number of downgrades in six years, as external impacts on the economy are extending. Tomorrow, the JPY Bank Lending report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 2.3%, Core Machinery Orders are anticipated to increase to 3.0% from the previous value of -5.4%, and PPI is also expected to rise to 1.0% from the previous value of 0.8%.

As of the current scenario, both the euro and the yen facing tremendous economic challenges are currently expected to result in certain volatility, whereas any outcome from the ECB meeting and the yen with its optimistic expectations in the coming days may be followed by a price decline, resulting in regaining the momentum of the yen over the euro.

Now let's consider the pair from the technical point of view. The price is currently residing at the edge of the 125.50 resistance area while being carried by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as support. Though the price is still residing inside the corrective range between the 125.00-50 area but showing certain impulsive bullish momentum and rejecting the bearish pressure, this indicates that 125.50 is going to be broken above soon. As the price breaks above 125.50 with a daily close, further bullish momentum with the target towards the 126.50-70 resistance area is expected in the coming days.

The ETH/USD pair is continuing the horizontal consolidation between the technical support at the level of 170.35 and technical resistance at the level of 183.34. There is a clear bearish divergence between the last two swings, so the bulls do not have enough power to carry on the move up. The level of the day is the support at 170.35 as any violation of this level would lead to the deeper correction with a target at 159.44.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $226

WR2 - $201

WR1 - $186

Weekly Pivot - $162

WS1 - $146

WS2 - $120

WS3 - $106

Trading recommendations:

The longer-term buy orders should remain open and the protective stop-loss might be moved higher to the level of $170. The daytraders should keep an eye on the level of $177 as any breakout below this level would indicate a deeper correction and further wave (4) development.

In today's Asian session, there is a breakdown of the important resistance zone of the NKZ 1/2 0.7128-0.7121. If the closing of trades occurs above the specified zone, the upward movement will be an impulse and purchases will come to the fore. This model will be formed within the medium-term zone of accumulation, so it will be necessary to fix purchases at the border of the range.

The previous four attempts to gain a foothold above the NKZ 1/2 were unsuccessful. This indicates a possible strength of growth in the event of a current breakdown of the structure.

To continue the downward movement, it will require the emergence of large proposals, which would entail a closure below the level of 0.7121. This will indicate the possibility to sell the instrument again. The sales target will be the April low.

Daily KZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly KZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly KZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data today, while the US will publish some economic data such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIB Small Business Index. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 111.95. Resistance. 2: 111.74. Resistance. 1: 111.52. Support. 1: 111.24. Support. 2: 111.03. Support. 3: 110.81.(Disclaimer)

On Monday, the euro was still able to go up from the consolidation range of 1.1184-1.1255 but was soon stopped by the resistance of the MACD line of the daily scale. At this moment, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator of the daily chart reached the border with the growth area (the zero line of the oscillator, the so-called border, is the support/resistance level), and a divergence formed on the four-hour scale.

Now, we are waiting for the price reversal from the achieved resistances, its return under the MACD line of the four-hour scale and departure below the lower limit of the consolidation range of 1.1184-1.1255. Moreover, according to the media, the nervousness in the market arose from the expectations of the ECB's monetary policy adjustment regarding the introduction of multi-level rates. No one expects such a change at a meeting on Wednesday, but the fact of considering such a strategy by the Central Bank may not come from a good economic life, therefore, the euro's growth is extremely limited. There is no optimism from the expected macrostatistics: the forecast for retail sales in Italy for March is -0.2%, industrial production in France for February is expected to be -0.5%, Italy is also -0.5%, for the euro area as a whole (data released on Friday) -0.5%.

In England, the negotiations of the parliamentary factions on the issues of Brexit continues. Theresa May's goal is to delay the already overdue Brexit (March 29) until the end of June.

The pound stayed on the MACD line on a daily scale. Slightly higher is the line of balance, over which you should gain a foothold in case the market wants to grow.

Also on the four-hour chart, the price slightly went above the MACD line but remains below the trend balance line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on H4 touches the border with the territory of growth. The pound may still grow by 5-20 points but then it may return under the indicator lines of both scales, that is, under the minimum of yesterday. Next, according to the main scenario, we expect the price to decline to 1.2860 – support of the downward price channel.

In the case of the consolidation of the price above 1.3130, the pound may grow fast, in the area of the highs of February and March (~1.3340).

Yesterday, under the general weakening of the dollar, the pair fell into the range of April 3, losing more than 30 points. The price is supported by the balance line of the daily chart. The daily marlin oscillator is fighting for the possibility of returning to the growth zone.

On H4, the price is between the lines of MACD and the balance; the Marlin oscillator is in a zone of decline but does not show a downward movement (Marlin is a leading indicator). There is still potential for growth. We are waiting for the price on the resistance of the downward price channel in the area of 112.82, in the case of the price transition over it, the resistance of the growing channel is at 113.38.

For the currency pair Euro/Dollar, we are following the development of the upward cycle of April 2 and the level of 1.1282 is the key resistance for the top. For the currency pair Pound/Dollar, the level of 1.3123 is the key support for the downward structure of April 4. For the currency pair Dollar/Franc, the resumption of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.0002. For the currency pair Dollar/Yen, the price is in the correction zone and forms the potential for the downward movement from April 5 and we expect the resumption of the upward movement after the breakdown of 111.81. For the currency pair Euro/Yen, we expect the move to the level of 125.93. For the currency pair Pound/Yen, the situation is in equilibrium: the rising structure of March 29 and the pronounced potential for the bottom of April 3.

Forecast for April 9:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

For the currency pair Euro/Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1327, 1.1307, 1.1282, 1.1269, 1.1248, 1.1236 and 1.1218. We continue to monitor the formation of the upward structure of April 2. The short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 1.1269 – 1.1282 and the breakdown of the last value will allow us to count on the movement to the level of 1.1307. We consider the level of 1.1327 as the potential value for the top, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.1248 – 1.1236 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction The goal is 1.1218 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of April 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1270 Take profit: 1.1280

Buy 1.1284 Take profit: 1.1305

Sell: 1.1248 Take profit: 1.1237

Sell: 1.1234 Take profit: 1.1220

For the currency pair Pound/Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3123, 1.3088, 1.3059, 1.2984, 1.2959, 1.2924 and 1.2876. We continue to follow the formation of the downward structure of April 4. The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 1.2984 – 1.2959. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the movement to the level of 1.2924 and we expect consolidation near this value. We consider the level of 1.2876 as a potential value for the bottom, from which we expect a correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.3059 – 1.3088 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The goal is 1.3123 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure of April 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3060 Take profit: 1.3085

Buy: 1.3090 Take profit: 1.3120

Sell: 1.2984 Take profit: 1.2960

Sell: 1.2957 Take profit: 1.2926

For the currency pair Dollar/Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0065, 1.0040, 1.0023, 1.0002, 0.9975, 0.9961 and 0.9938. The price is in the correction zone from the upward structure on March 27. We expect the continuation of the movement to the top after the breakdown of 1.0002. In this case, the first target is 1.0023 and in the area of 1.0023 – 1.0040 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. We consider the level of 1.0065 as a potential value for the top, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

The consolidated movement is possible in the area of 0.9975 – 0.9961 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 0.9938 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of March 27, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0002 Take profit: 1.0020

Buy: 1.0025 Take profit: 1.0038

Sell: 0.9975 Take profit: 0.9964

Sell: 0.9958 Take profit: 0.9942

For the currency pair Dollar/Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 112.69, 112.26, 112.05, 111.81, 111.34, 111.14 and 110.97. We are following the development of the upward structure of March 25. At the moment, the price is in correction and forms the potential for the downward movement of April 5. The resumption of the upward trend development is expected after the breakdown of 111.81. The first target is 112.05 and in the area of 112.05 – 112.26 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. We consider the level of 112.69 as a potential value for the top, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 111.34 – 111.14 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to the formation of pronounced initial conditions for the downward cycle. The potential target is 110.97.

The main trend is the upward structure of March 25, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.81 Take profit: 112.05

Buy: 112.07 Take profit: 112.24

Sell: 111.32 Take profit: 111.17

Sell: 111.13 Take profit: 110.98

For the currency pair Canadian Dollar/Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3361, 1.3340, 1.3324, 1.3296, 1.3268, 1.3246 and 1.3233. We are following the formation of the downward structure of April 5 after the abolition of the upward structure of April 3. We expect the movement to continue to the bottom after the breakdown of 1.3296. In this case, the target is 1.3268 and consolidation is near this level. We consider the level of 1.3233 as a potential value for the bottom, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation in the area of 1.3246 – 1.3233, as well as a departure to the correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3324 - 1.3340 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of a protracted correction. The target is 1.3360 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the formation of the downward potential of April 5.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3324 Take profit: 1.3340

Buy: 1.3342 Take profit: 1.3360

Sell: 1.3294 Take profit: 1.3268

Sell: 1.3266 Take profit: 1.3246

For the currency pair Australian Dollar/Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7202, 0.7183, 0.7153, 0.7131, 0.7106, 0.7092, 0.7074 and 0.7048. We continue to monitor the formation of the upward structure of April 2. We expect the movement to continue to the top after the breakdown of 0.7131. In this case, the target is 0.7153 and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.7155 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. The target is 0.7183. We consider the level of 0.7202 as a potential value for the top, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

The consolidated movement is possible in the range of 0.7106 – 0.7092 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The goal is 0.7074 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of April 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7131 Take profit: 0.7150

Buy: 0.7155 Take profit: 0.7180

Sell: 0.7090 Take profit: 0.7077

Sell: 0.7070 Take profit: 0.7050

For the currency pair Euro/Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 126.75, 126.27, 125.93, 125.43, 125.01, 124.78 and 124.44. We are following the development of the upward cycle of March 28. At the moment, we expect movement to the level of 125.93 and in the area of 125.93 – 126.27 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. We consider the level of 126.75 as a potential value for the top, upon reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 125.01 - 124.78 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. In this case, the target is 124.44 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of March 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.45 Take profit: 125.90

Buy: 125.95 Take profit: 126.20

Sell: 125.00 Take profit: 124.80

Sell: 124.75 Take profit: 124.50

For the currency pair Pound/Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 149.76, 148.87, 148.20, 147.24, 146.61, 146.09, 144.93 and 143.83. The price entered an equilibrium state: the initial conditions for the top of March 29 and the pronounced potential for the downward movement of April 3. The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 146.09 - 146.61. The continuation of the main upward trend development is expected after the breakdown of 146.61. The first target is 147.24 and the breakdown of which, in turn, should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the top. In this case, the target is 148.20. We expect the short-term upward movement in the area of 148.20 – 148.87, hence the probability of the price going to a correction is also high. We consider the level of 149.76 as a potential value for the top, from which we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The development of the downward structure of April 3 is expected after the breakdown of 144.93. In this case, the potential target is 143.83.