Experts: Lynch must hit harder

LOWELL -- In a debate at UMass Lowell last week, Rep. Stephen Lynch told Rep. Edward Markey, his opponent in the Democratic Senate primary, that he knows how to stand up for himself.

"Just because he has a billion dollars doesn't mean he gets to push people around," Lynch said of California clean-energy activist Tom Steyer, who has threatened to take down Lynch's campaign unless he comes out in opposition to the Keystone XL oil pipeline. "I've faced bullies my whole life."

That line drew cheers from the crowd, but Lynch's overall lackluster performance that night left some debate viewers wondering why he might be pulling his punches against Markey.

"He allowed himself to be on the defensive and stumbled here and there," said Stonehill College political-science professor Peter Ubertaccio.

Lynch

"The few encounters so far have been best for Markey and not the best for Lynch. We're into the homestretch now, so he's got to find a way to throw Markey off his stride."

Lynch, a former ironworker from South Boston, is a self-described underdog whose supporters champion his ability to come from behind to seize a win. As the race nears its end, with two debates and about two weeks before the April 30 primary, analysts say he needs to find a way to wrestle control away from frontrunner Markey.

"He needs to be driving the race more," said Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh. "He either needs to be going after Markey on things, or getting out there in the media more effectively on the things that he is doing. That's a tough dynamic to change.

Advertisement

"

With the backing of party establishment and a lead in the polls, Markey, dean of the state's congressional delegation, has been widely seen as the likely successor to John Kerry as the next senator from Massachusetts. Now representing the newly redrawn 5th district, he's served in the House since 1976.

Lynch joined him on Capitol Hill in 2001, running for and winning a seat left open after Rep. Joseph Moakley's death.

Markey

Frank Talty, co-director of the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion, said the fact that the contenders are congressional colleagues lends "an interesting dynamic" to the race, with debates more courteous than antagonistic.

"I think they've been careful," Talty said. "In the event that Markey's the nominee, they don't want to damage each other."

In last week's debate, the candidates strayed away from personal attacks and were often deferential to each other in their answers, sometimes even complimentary, Ubertaccio said.

"In the Massachusetts delegation, folks have a healthy respect for one another," he said. "They work well together. They're politicians, so we know there's always a certain amount of competition there, but they're not coming at this from the perspective that they're going to have to cut this guy off at their knees."

The two congressmen are vying for the seat left vacant when Kerry was named secretary of state. Three Republicans, state Rep. Daniel Winslow, former U.S. Attorney Michael Sullivan and businessman Gabriel Gomez, are in the running for their party's nomination.

The general election is set for June 25.

So late in the condensed election cycle, a shift away from the polite deference he showed in the last debate could actually hurt Lynch, Ubertaccio said, by making him appear desperate.

"That's always a risk the closer you get to the election," Ubertaccio said. "But I do think he needs to give his supporters, and any latent supporters, a reason to sort of perk up and pay attention."

Marsh disputed the idea that a collegial relationship between Markey and Lynch could be affecting either's campaign strategy.

"Whether it's a colleague or not, your opponent is your opponent," she said.

She said Lynch "seemed to run out of gas" toward the end of the debate, a slip he needs to avoid in future match-ups. While the forums aren't attracting many viewers -- the UMass Lowell debate wasn't televised, broadcast only via Web and radio -- the next day's media coverage shapes the narrative, which hasn't been in Lynch's favor.

In the last special Democratic Senate primary, in 2009, 668,926 ballots were cast. Attorney General Martha Coakley claimed victory with 311,548 votes.

This election's most recent poll numbers, put out late last month by WBUR, give Markey an 11-point lead, with 35 percent to Lynch's 24 percent. That same poll shows 30 percent of voters undecided.

Analysts say Lynch could close the gap with a variety of approaches.

Marsh said he'd need more advertising, in addition to stronger debate performances where he takes control of the conversation rather than yielding it to Markey.

Ubertaccio said strong fundraising numbers could convince ambivalent Democrats that Lynch would be a viable general election candidate.

Talty said Lynch's biggest asset is his hardworking campaign team, including union members who "will work their tails off" as April 30 approaches.

"In a small-turnout race, a get-out-the-vote campaign can make a difference," Talty said. "It can't make up a 20-point difference, but it can make up a five-point difference or a three-point difference. We may not even witness the strength of Lynch's campaign until Election Day or the day before."

Welcome to your discussion forum: Sign in with a Disqus account or your social networking account for your comment to be posted immediately, provided it meets the guidelines. (READ HOW.)
Comments made here are the sole responsibility of the person posting them; these comments do not reflect the opinion of The Sentinel and Enterprise. So keep it civil.

ODESSA, Texas (AP) — A West Texas man has been charged with impersonating an officer by using sirens and flashing lights to skip to the head of the drive-thru line at a fast-food restaurant. Full Story

Sufjan Stevens, "Carrie & Lowell" (Asthmatic Kitty) Plucked strings and pulsing keyboards dominate the distinctive arrangements on Sufjan Stevens' latest album, and in the absence of a rhythm section, they serve to keep time. Full Story