Connecticut economy edges closer to boom cycle milestone

Program instructor Josh Mayo works with recent high school graduates to restore a boat at the SoundWaters Harbor Corps marine job training program at John J. Boccuzzi Park in Stamford, Conn. Thursday, Sept. 26, 2019. In partnership with DOMUS, recent Stamford Public Schools graduates learn valuable technical skills and connect with marine industry leaders to learn of career opportunities on the Stamford waterfront. This fall, members are restoring a catboat, and in the process learning fiberglass repair, carpentry, painting, varnishing, rigging, engine maintenance and more.

Photo: Tyler Sizemore / Hearst Connecticut Media

It is an arbitrary number — and possibly an imaginary one to boot — but Connecticut could be on the threshold of a significant milestone in its economic history.

After the Connecticut Department of Labor reported estimates last week of 3,600 jobs in September, the gain left the state 800 jobs short of the 1.7 million threshold.

It is a mark Connecticut has topped only twice before — most recently during a 14-month stretch in 2007 and 2008 prior to the crash of the housing market, and before that for five months during the tech bubble of 2000.

In one of every two years since the 2009 recession, Connecticut has gained at least 800 jobs in October, with the 2019 totals an open question until sometime next spring when the final estimates are tallied.

DOL calculated September gains of 1,000 jobs in both the Stamford-Bridgeport corridor and the New Haven area, with Hartford seeing a 1,400 job increase and Danbury flat.

Economist Donald Klepper-Smith cautions that DOL’s monthly data is subject to sampling that improves in accuracy as more data rolls in, with preliminary figures often subject to revision, and added that school hiring having a possible impact as well on the September figures in Connecticut.

With New York seeing a smaller percentage gain last month and Massachusetts and Rhode Island absorbing declines, that could be the case in Connecticut when the final estimates are revealed next year, according to Klepper-Smith, chief economist for DataCore Partners in New Haven and an advisor to Liberty Bank.

“Longer term, Connecticut is not creating jobs — we’ve created what I would refer to as a less-than-friendly business environment here,” Klepper-Smith told Hearst Connecticut Media. “You might have a temporary blip above that 1.7 million mark, but I don’t expect those numbers to hold.”

But with New York City’s job market in a sustained boom, others see the possibility of a long-watched-for trickle effect filtering into the suburbs, as occurred in the previous economic expansion more than a decade ago.

And Connecticut is on the cusp of a few new influxes of jobs, including the debut of Amazon’s new fulfillment center in North Haven; the SoNo Collection mall in South Norwalk; and wind farm proposals that if coming to fruition would stage construction work out of Bridgeport or New London.

On Monday, Gov. Ned Lamont named the state’s first “chief manufacturing officer” within the state Department of Economic and Community Development led by David Lehman.

“Connecticut seems to be holding its own, in spite of the economic and business factors that have kept the state from thriving all these years,” said David Lewis, CEO of the Norwalk-based human resources consultancy OperationsInc. “We are riding the coattails of the best job market in our lifetime, versus seeing results coming from anything I can attribute to what would be called ‘better’ conditions for business growth purposely driven by Connecticut programs or actions.

“The new administration, and particularly the efforts of David Lehman, are encouraging in showing that there is a fresh approach being formulated towards how to build some momentum,” Lewis added. “My hope is that programs designed to better understand Connecticut’s assets and then cultivate them are in place by January, before the market conditions soften or reverse.”