tavit8, I like your analysis and agree with the approach of valuing AWLCF as a terminal asset (although the market seems to have trouble with this concept for long stretches, as evidenced by BPT). Your assumptions may be a tad pessimistic (especially the 10-year term) but given the risk involved I'd also target a 20% IRR. Here at $7 it's looking pretty buyable.

Nice article. Now sounds like a great time to be scouting out REE companies even if you don't buy into them yet. If stocks ever get a > 10% pullback, that could help create a washout bottom in REE stocks, so I'll be waiting around to see if that happens.I see three possibilities:1) Market pulls back > 10% at some point in the next 6 months and REE stocks tank too - great, super bargains will be available.2) Market pulls back > 10% at some point in the next 6 months and REE stocks hold steady or go up - great, looks like I found a sector starting a new bull market.3) Market doesn't pull back - oh well, wait for the next fat pitch to come.

Ben, I find that we have almost identical viewpoints on how to play rising gold prices (i.e., using juniors as call options). Chesapeake Gold has been my favorite for years, although my latest foray is underwater at the moment. Management is very solid, which is an important criteria for me. There are lots of weak managements out there in this sector IMHO.

My silver "option" is SVBL, although you end up with plenty of zinc with them.

Nice reasoned article. I have followed SVBL for years (back when it was MMGG then MMG) and always thought it was a great option on the price of silver, although the price of zinc ends up being important for the project too.

OCF may seem high but on first glance it seems EXC's FCF is more like $1B vs. a pretty high enterprise value (due to all the debt). I understand the stock price is low but I'm not convinced it's a bargain...

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Of all the investments I've done over the years, the easiest strategy has been buying these clothing stocks at .25-.4X revenue when a company's product is out of fashion and then selling it at .8-1X revenue when its products become in fashion again. I only do this with companies that have no debt and it seems to always work - ANF, AEO(S), CHIC, CHS, ... You don't even have to get the timing on their return to fashion right, all you're doing is expecting that the people who made the company all that net cash in the past will find a way to do it again.

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I subscribed to GEO for a brief time. They don't always call out winners but they were definitely forthright. I'm sure they were short the stock when they called out LPH as a fraud, but why is that a bad thing?

I agree that current ARO management is weak. However, I would prefer to stay away altogether until they get their management issues under control, so I am not a fellow shareholder yet. There is too much opportunity for current management to further destroy value.