PAT CAPUTO: Sanchez or Porcello?

This is a standard question asked by Tiger fans entering the off season: Should they re-sign starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez?

The immediate reply is, “Yes.”And it is understandable. Sanchez, acquired in a trade near the deadline in July, pitched exceptionally well for the Tigers during a tight division race and in the postseason.

But the question the Tigers should be asking in reality is: “At what cost?”

There is a dearth of starting pitching in the major leagues. It remains the game’s most treasured commodity, despite the complete game being rendered to dinosaur status.

Most Tigers fans are blinded by what Sanchez did in their most recent memory, and they are down on Rick Porcello, the pitcher he replaced as the Tigers’ fourth starter in the postseason, because he had another hauntingly inconsistent year.

Yet, a closer look at the situation is the Tigers would be better suited moving forward with Porcello as their fourth starter rather than Sanchez - if presented with the either/or equation.

The numbers are even more alike when it is considered Sanchez has pitched the bulk of his career in the National League where there is no designated hitter.

Porcello is 23 years old (he’ll turn 24 in December) and is two years removed from being able to file for free agency. His salary will be relatively low the next two seasons. Sanchez, who will turn 29 in February, is expected to command as much as $15 million per year on a free agent contract for multiple seasons.

It won’t be because of the body of his career, which has been relatively mediocre, but because of an 11-start span late in the season and the playoffs. In his last eight regular season starts, Sanchez was 3-3 with a 2.14 ERA. In his three postseason starts, he was 1-2 with a 1.77 ERA.

Like Porcello, Roy Halladay was a highly-regard high school prospect, who bypassed college to sign professionally. At the same stage of his career, Halladay had a 13-14 overall record with a 5.76 ERA. The next season, he broke through to respectability. At 25, he had 19-7 record. At 26, he was the best pitcher in baseball with 22 wins - and all the other numbers, both in regard to traditional and Sabermetric figures, were at the top of the chart.

Go to the conventional scouting tools. Sanchez and Porcello have similar styles and have suffered the same problems. Both rely on a sinking fastball. Each has underrated velocity and can hit the mid-90s on a good night with their four-seam (straight) fastball. Sanchez’s breaking ball was a very effective pitch late in the season, but it has tended to come and go. Porcello struggles with his breaking ball, and with consistency with his two-seam (sinking) fastball.

But it’s entirely possible he will be a better pitcher than Sanchez not only in the distant future, but also the near one.

Baseball is a sport of fickle factors. None is quite like starting pitching, though. Mike Hampton. Barry Zito, Chan Ho Park, A.J. Burnett, Eric Milton, Jeff Suppan, Oliver Perez, Carl Pavano, John Lackey, Darren Dreifort ...the list of free agent starting pitching busts is endless dating back to Wayne Garland in the 1970s. There have been some wise moves when it comes to these type of deals, but it not a percentage play.

Ideally, the Tigers would begin next season with Sanchez as their fourth starter and Porcello fifth - with Drew Smyly in reserve.

It wouldn’t surprise me if they resign Sanchez, if the Tigers trade Porcello, who is arbitration eligible. However, the Tigers are not boxed into signing Sanchez at “any cost.” Their starting pitching with Justin Verlander, Doug Fister and Max Scherzer at the top of the rotation is going to be among the best in baseball anyway.

In truth, Sanchez had 11 really good starts. The Tigers, by the way, had a 5-6 record in those games.

What it tells you is the Tigers have more pressing needs to address than starting pitching, that Anibal Sanchez should be welcomed back, but not if the Tigers have to sell the farm to sign him.

Pat Caputo is a senior sports reporter and a columnist. Contact him at pat.caputo@oakpress.com and read his blog at theoaklandpress.com. You can follow him on Twitter @patcaputo98