Five keys to Padres success

1. Support Adrian Gonzalez: Leadoff hitters Tony Gwynn Jr. and Everth Cabrera must improve on their respective .350 and .342 on-base percentages of a year ago and Kyle Blanks, Scott Hairston and Chase Headley have to become threats immediately behind Gonzalez. If not, opposing pitchers will either widen Gonzalez’s zone or walk him as they did a year ago.

2. Be aggressive, not stupid: The Padres stressed speed this spring and ran at will on the basepaths. Aggressive running will lead to more runs. But the Padres also had the fourth-lowest total of baserunners in the National League last season. They can’t afford to be reckless.

3. A good start: If the momentum of spring training carries over into the regular season and the Padres get off to a good start, management will be less likely to seek suitors for the likes of Gonzalez, Heath Bell and Jon Garland.

4. A healthy Chris Young: Injuries have crushed his past two seasons. Over 2006-2007 he was 20-13 with a 3.30 ERA and a stronger threat to throw the Padres’ first no-hitter than Jake Peavy.

5. Continued development: From such young players as Cabrera, Blanks, Will Venable, Clayton Richard, Mat Latos and Luke Gregerson.

It falls apart if …

1. False positive: The 37-25 run at the end of 2009 was nice, but the Padres were far out of contention by then and the pressure was off. Now the pressure is on.

2. Production woes: The Padres are counting on a lot of players to come through off short samples of success — notably Kyle Blanks, Will Venable, Everth Cabrera, Tony Gwynn. If they don’t come through …

3. Injuries become a factor: The Padres lack depth at most positions. A key injury here or there could be decisive. And key members of this cast — Young, Scott Hairston, Cabrera, David Eckstein, Nick Hundley, Blanks, Mike Adams — had injury issues last year.

4. Adrian Gonzalez: His track record says he will produce. But as he goes, so go the Padres. And even if he doesn’t go, they were in trouble last year (13-35) when he hit .191 with three homers over a 48-game span in the summer.

5. The Bell tolls: The Padres decide this combination isn’t going to win and move to trade the likes of Adrian Gonzalez, Heath Bell, Chris Young and Jon Garland.