The Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary goes down to the wire with U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak
taking 42 percent of likely primary voters to Sen. Arlen Specter's 41 percent, according to a
Quinnipiac University poll conducted through Sunday night and released today.

With 16 percent undecided and 25 percent of those who do back a candidate saying they
might change their mind, the race is too close to call.

Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato remains far ahead of the field for the
Democratic gubernatorial nomination with 39 percent, more than his three major competitors
combined, although 31 percent of voters remains undecided.

"The Sestak-Specter race is a dead heat and could go either way. Sen. Arlen Specter has
the party organization behind him, which should help with turnout. But Congressman Joe Sestak
could benefit from the relatively large group of undecided voters. Generally, incumbents don't
do all that well with undecideds, who are more likely to vote for the challenger or not vote," said
Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"And slightly more of Specter's voters than Sestak's say they might change their minds.
Moreover, as we have seen elsewhere this spring, there is an anti-incumbent mood in the electorate
and Specter, with 30 years in the Senate, is the ultimate incumbent."

In the Democratic primary, men back Sestak 46 - 41 percent, while women split with 41
percent for Specter and 40 percent for Sestak.

The winner of the Democratic Senate primary is likely to face former congressman Pat
Toomey, who led the GOP primary race over Peg Luksik 60 - 9 percent in last week's Quinnipiac
University poll.

In the race for Governor, Onorato gets 39 percent, followed by State Sen. Tony Williams
with 11 percent, State Auditor General Jack Wagner at 10 percent and Montgomery County
Commissioner Joe Hoeffel at 9 percent. In addition, 31 percent remain undecided and 53 percent
of those backing a candidate say they still could change their minds.

"County Executive Dan Onorato is far ahead and appears headed for victory. If all the
undecided voters went to one of the other candidates, Onorato could conceivably lose. But the
odds of that kind of scenario are very, very, very long," said Brown.

The Democratic primary winner presumably will face Attorney General Tom Corbett, who
led state Rep. Sam Rohrer 57 - 14 percent in last week's Quinnipiac University poll of likely GOP
primary voters.

From May 12 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 951 Pennsylvania likely Democratic
primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The sample is drawn from
registered voter lists based on people who have voted in recent elections.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the
nation as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or
follow us on Twitter.

1. If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote
for Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams or Joe Hoeffel? (If undecided q1) As
of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Onorato, Wagner,
Williams or Hoeffel? (This table includes "Leaners".)

2. If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today,
would you vote for Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? (If undecided q2) As of today,
would you say that you lean a little more toward Specter or Sestak? (This table
includes "Leaners".)