Demographic Projections of Non-English-Language-Background and Limited-English-Proficient Persons in the United States to the Year 2000 by State, Age, and Language Group.

Oxford-Carpenter, Rebecca; And Others

This study makes demographic projections of the limited English proficient (LEP) and non English language background (NELB) populations in the United States to the year 2000, based on 1976 figures. Results of NELB projections include the following: (1) the Spanish group is increasing dramatically, but the Asian and non-Spanish/non-Asian groups are also growing; (2) the younger age groups will decline significantly but temporarily; (3) the heaviest concentration of NELBs will remain in California, New York, and Texas; (4) the Spanish are much younger than other groups; and (5) the Spanish are concentrated in California, Texas, and New York, while the Asians are concentrated in California, Hawaii, and New York. Results of the LEP projections include the following: (1) the numbers of LEPs declined slightly during the 1980s, but will either increase or return to their previous levels by 2000; (2) the 5- to 9-year-old group is increasing more than the 10- to 14-year-old group; (3) California and Texas will show overall gains in the number of LEPs, while New York remains the same; (4) the numbers of younger Spanish and Asians are increasing; and (5) the Spanish are concentrated in California, Texas, and New York. Educational implications include the following: (1) Spanish LEPs will become an increasingly important factor in educational planning; (2) the sheer numbers of the Spanish should not mask the needs of smaller groups; and (3) geographic concentration will influence the allocation of funds. Extensive tables, charts, and graphs of statistical data and a six-page bibliography are included. (FMW)