Completely disagree on Murray. There will be many questions about his height, and he hasn't been dominant in college, the usual thing that would help alleviate such concerns. He is a very fringe first rounder at best, IMO.

I think Rhodes will end up running in the high 4.4's which isn't terrible, I think he might be a hair slow in the three cone because he is so high cut but that shouldn't effect his stock. Prototypical press corner or free safety, if he comes out of the season healthy he will be a top 40 pick imo.

Aaron Murray is definitely not a first-round lock. He is often compared to Drew Brees, who went in the second. I think those comparisons are a bit kind to Murray. I view him more as a late second.

Also, a lot of people are viewing Tyler Wilson as a first round lock. Maybe I'm alone, but part of me thinks GMs are going to look at the mess that is Arkansas and wonder where the leadership from Wilson was. Concussions could also be an issue and I could definitely see him dropping quite a bit.

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Originally Posted by SolidGold

Bortlezzzzzzz

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Originally Posted by Monomach

Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin. One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one. Awesome. Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks.

I think Rhodes will end up running in the high 4.4's which isn't terrible, I think he might be a hair slow in the three cone because he is so high cut but that shouldn't effect his stock. Prototypical press corner or free safety, if he comes out of the season healthy he will be a top 40 pick imo.

He'll be lucky to top out at 4.5, but he has game speed which is more important than t-shirt and shorts speed. I'll never understand the logic of timing players in the 40 without pads on, at least a helmet and shoulder pads.

No one at FSU expects him back in 2013, it is doubtful he would have been back in 2012 if not for tweaking his knee in the bowl game.

When you say someone has absolutely locked in a first round grade, that is saying quite a bit when you factor in all that can change between now and April. From your list I would say,
Out: Murray, Rhodes, McDonald, Reid
In: Warmack, Montgomery, Hankins

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I am the co-founder of twofootballminds.blogspot.com. We focus on College and NFL football from the draft to daily picks and everything in between.

Aaron Murray is definitely not a first-round lock. He is often compared to Drew Brees, who went in the second. I think those comparisons are a bit kind to Murray. I view him more as a late second.

Also, a lot of people are viewing Tyler Wilson as a first round lock. Maybe I'm alone, but part of me thinks GMs are going to look at the mess that is Arkansas and wonder where the leadership from Wilson was. Concussions could also be an issue and I could definitely see him dropping quite a bit.

A lot of my criticism has to do with his inconsistent mechanics and the Bobby Petrino offense he put up his big numbers in (which was absolutely loaded with Wright, Childs, Adams, and Cobi Hamilton.) I actually thought, strictly based on our evaluations of them as prospects, Brian Brohm was better.

Murray is closer to a 3rd round prospect than a 1st rounder...he simply hasn't taken that next step yet

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Originally Posted by LonghornsLegend

Fringe 1st round? That's not very likely but I sure would love if he had late 1st round early 2nd round value come draft time.

Reid is more of an in-the-box safety and his skills translating as a FS to the NFL may not be there...if that's how he's perceived by teams that'll push down his value, maybe out of the 1st

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Originally Posted by Docta

And I actually think Woods could slip to the 2nd. Stock's dropping.

Woods is a very good receiver, but he could end up being the 4th best receiver, depending on who declares, and considering he doesn't have any physical traits that WOW anyone, slipping out of the first makes sense or is a possibility.

I don't see it with Lewan either. He could find his way towards the bottom of round one but I don't see him being a lock. I know it was just the first game but I can't get the struggles against Alabama out of my head with him.

I agree Hankins should on this list...after Star he's gonna be the most coveted DT on the board

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Originally Posted by jrdrylie

Also, a lot of people are viewing Tyler Wilson as a first round lock. Maybe I'm alone, but part of me thinks GMs are going to look at the mess that is Arkansas and wonder where the leadership from Wilson was. Concussions could also be an issue and I could definitely see him dropping quite a bit.

If GMs question Wilson on the mess at Arkansas and place any blame on him that would be absurd. It's not Tyler's fault that Coach Petrino was screwing around with an intern or whatever she was, and then the chaos that followed with it.

From your list, the only guys I think are LOCKS for the first (barring injury/arrest) are:

QB Geno Smith, West Virginia

WR Robert Woods, Southern California*

DT Star Lotulelei, Utah

DE Barkevious Mingo, Louisiana St.*

LB Jarvis Jones, Georgia*

LB Manti Te'o, Notre Dame

CB Dee Milliner, Alabama

FS Eric Reid, Louisiana St.

DE Sam Montgomery, Louisiana St.

I'm not 100% on Reid either, but think someone would take him.

Also doesn't mean these guys are tops at their position (though most are). Someone like Woods is a lock for production/pedigree/combine #s, while I COULD see Allen/Hunter go early 2nd if they have a bad offseason.

He isn't. He isn't a 2nd round lock even unfortunately, though I still like him.

He may not be a first-round lock, but he's earned a first-round grade from me. Outstanding footwork, mechanics, release, pocket movement, tight spiral, strong arm, generally accurate ball placement, SEC pedigree, long-time starter playing in a pro-style scheme. If he was 6'3" instead of 6'1", I don't think there'd be any question that he was a first round pick.