“Massachusetts could deliver Donald Trump’s biggest margin of victory thus far,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “With Ted Cruz out of the top three, both Marco Rubio and John Kasich are splitting the anti-Trump vote and hurting each other.”

Preferences not set in stone

The poll showed that many voters are firm in their first choices for the GOP nomination, but the door is still open for some last-minute switching. Sixty-eight percent said that their minds were made up, while 28 percent said that they might change their minds between now and Tuesday.

Second-choice candidates

Marco Rubio (20 percent) was the top second-choice candidate over Kasich and Cruz, who were the second choices of 17 percent and 14 percent respectively. Trump was the second choice of 11 percent, while Carson was the second choice of 8 percent.

“The second-choice statistics suggest that, as candidates continue to drop out, Rubio will benefit more than his opponents,” said Paleologos. “And with so many Republican candidates staying in the primary races, they will continue to split the anti-Trump vote. Time is running out and it is getting late in the game.”

Early perceptions for November suggest Trump vs. Clinton.

Setting aside their personal choices, likely Republican voters predicted the November outcome as follows: 50 percent said Trump would be the next president, 18 percent said Clinton, and 5 percent projected Rubio.

Methodology

The statewide Suffolk University survey was conducted through live interviews of land line and cell phone users. All respondents indicated that they are very likely to vote in the upcoming Massachusetts Republican primary on Tuesday, March 1. The survey of 500 voters was conducted Wednesday, Feb. 24, through Friday, Feb. 26. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. Results are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, dpaleologos@suffolk.edu.