Friday, March 30, 2007

I hope y'all appreciate these rundowns of what's to come from the majors and the minors because they sure as hell are exhausting to type up. Here are the Oscar possibilities from Paramount through Warner Bros (and I've added revisions to Columbia through New Line and posted a current schedule which will change the second it's posted. These things are so volatile) Discuss. If you have any helpful hints for my April Fools Oscar Predictions on Sunday type them away in the comments. It's all so overwhelming open to interpretation at this point.

P.S. for those interested in the animation feature film competition I have put up a template page. Did i forget any toons?

25 comments:

Anonymous
said...

that is overwhelming!! Incredible list but you know - just as in years past - stuff with big stars that seems a sure fire winner will be a dud ( maybe Charlie Wilson's War??) odd stuff will unexpexctedly strike a cord ( my bet - The Assassination of Jesse James) and great films ( The Kite Runner ?)will get passed over for more popular Hollywood name fare

Two animated feature films you might have missed:Bee Movie (Dreamworks)Surf's Up (Sony)

(Really, there's no way Ratatouille and Shrek the Third will not lock two of the three nomination spots -- unless the latter turns out spectacularly turn-offish, it will win the nod purely through box office.)

Eh, I'm really leaning toward "big miss" on Sweeney Todd. This seems like it could be the "big, widely anticipated frontrunner" of 2007 - this year's Cold Mountain, Flags of our Fathers, Dreamgirls, Munich, Memoirs, etc. - that disappoints upon release. Or maybe that will be Charlie Wilson's War. But Mike Nichols doesn't ever seem to screw up. He's definitely one of the more consistently solid directors out there, as he's proved time and time again... so I think I have faith in that one.

And it really looks to me like the animated race is already down to Shrek 3, Ratatoille and Simpons. Right? None of those can really miss. And none of the others has any real buzz whatsoever. Who knows what will win, though.

And I think I'm Not There is just too "out there" to be an oscar film. It will probably just lead to yet more goodwill build up for Todd Haynes, but with no immediate payoff.

Still, I dunno... maybe lots of stars + Weinstein + biopic of loved, famous figure = big oscar event? Even with the weirdness. I could actually see it happening if it's really brilliant and Weinstein and Haynes find the right way to sell it to the mainstream. It actually seems more inherently oscarable than FFH was, if you think about it. And there's plenty of opportunity of supporting nods. Maybe SAG ensemble for all the stars who played Dylan? Who knows.

For Animation. Yes, you left off Bee Movie and Surf's Up while including Paprika (wasn't that one eligible LAST year?). You also forgot Coraline (that's stop motion right?).

I actually think that Shrek 3 won't show up. I mean, are they just going to keep nominating that franchise no matter how many they make? My predix atm are Ratatouille, Bee Movie (considering they suspiciously got Jerry Seinfeld to present this year I think he could get in. they seem to like him) and The Simpsons Movie. But, the latter could easily faulter if its not up to snuff.

Adam, "But Mike Nichols doesn't ever seem to screw up."

You obviously haven't seen What Planet Are You From? from about 6 years back. Dreadful. And it has The Bening!

Glenn: No, I have not seen that. But still, it's only one film. The rest of his filmography is full stuffed with things like Virginia Woolf, The Graduate, Silkwood, Postcards from the Edge, Working Girl, Angels in America, Closer, etc. The man is oscar candy.

All things considered, I'd guess Charlie Wilson's War will get a few nods here and there, but no big one. It doesn't seem as prone to being a total piece of crap, like say Sweeney Todd.

anonymous --i would love it if JESSE JAMES had the goods -the cast and director and creative team look so good. but why all the noncommittal release dates?

colin --updated.

adam k --i understand all the reservations about I'm NOt There but i've decided to go hopeful. Oscar eventually catches up with the geniuses. They eventually absorb that "oh yeah, this person keeps making classics we ignore"

as for the animated they do seem the most obvious but you never know. maybe they won't wanna nominate an animated tv show as a feature film?

What I'm looking for is '07's "Little Miss Sunshine" or "Sideways"....you know its out there somewhere. Something like that is bound to be on the oscar list next year. Or possibly some romantic thing like "Ghost" or frothy comedy like "Greek Wedding" or mysterious "Sixth Sense"....big movies that seem to come out of nowhere. Any thoughts?

I think the main reason I'm skeptical about I'm Not There is that the real title is I'm Not There: Suppositions on a Film Concerning Dylan. When's the last time film with a title like THAT got any play? And it doesn't make me think this one'll be any less thinky.

Well, in the category of studio-film-masquerading-as-an-indie category (Sideways and Little Miss Sunshine are former occupants), there'll be Grace is Gone, that got solid reviews at Sundance.

I don't know if I'd call Nichols oscar candy. At one time, maybe, but he had Regarding Henry, Wolf, The Birdcage and Primary Colors as well. His recent record (HBO work aside) isn't something the academy necessarily jumps on. Anyway, I'd like to suggest the real problem with CWW isn't Nichols but Hanks. He hasn't been intersting since the Toy Story days.

Nathaniel, I love your hope for Todd Haynes. It seems to me that controversial genius auteurs need to mellow out before oscar recognizes (see Almodovar). Then again, if you told me they'd nominate a film with a man walking into a giant vagina.... times have changed, indeed. Maybe directing a biopic will be mellow enough?

adam -- well pretentious names abound, and sometimes an executive would "suggest" in good wisdom to change it. annie hall did start out as anhedonia, and it beat star wars for the grand prize in the end.

Nat. For the sake of The Bening's reputation, don't see What Planet Are You From. She's terrible. As is everyone else. That movie was a disaster through and through. Not one single positive thing to say about it. Just terrible.

While it's true that some directors just seem to snap into Oscar-friendly behaviour without sacrifice (Almodovar), it's also true that some directors just never catch on with Oscar. Sad, but true.

Arkaan just reminded me. The Weinstein's Teeth is about a vagina with big sharp teeth. If that gets Oscar play then I'll eat my hair.

Todd Haynes DOES at least seem like a contender for the lone director spot, if nothing else... especially if they just shorten the title to I'm Not There.

And he does have all these A-list stars lining up to work with him on these weird projects, so that's probably a good sign that Hollywood is coming around.

Plus, let's not forget that he has already been nominated for writing, and even before FFH, Velvet Goldmine was nominated for costume design. So it's not like oscar hates him. The love is just building slowly, and there is every indication that it will continue to build.

I'm glad Nat brought up I'm Not There, cause I'm starting to agree it could be a force, and I'd never thought about it that way before.

I may kick myself for having missed this one during the "Actress" contest entry period...I did not know that Amy Adams had the lead role in "Enchanted", due out this year. Even if this turns out to be a lightweight film, she could still outshine the material. Every time she is on the screen in "Junebug" and "Catch Me If You Can" she draws my complete and undivided attention. And not because of her looks...she simply has, to my eye, a magic presence that the camera loves. If she can make that magic stretch across a leading role, then I think she has a serious shot. (Okay, it hasn't worked for Anne Hatheway, but still...)

I'd really like to know why there is a lot of hate for Sweeney Todd in here? Firstly, I'm not hearing much about it at all as far as awards. The only stuff really talked about it thus far is make-up and costumes and art direction. I think Helena Bonham Carter nommed for Mrs. Lovett is someone's idea of a joke and I doubt it will happen. I really don't think it's going to be some mega Oscar contender like some people seem to be thinking it's going to be. It's a Tim Burton film. When has a Tim Burton film gotten an Oscar? Um, Ed Wood! That was Martin Landau doing good work. As far as this year goes, I don't really foresee Sweeney Todd being some "crap"-fest of Oscar hyping, but rather a typical Tim Burton work with a really fun performance from Alan Rickman and company.

Which brings me to ALan Rickman, my hope for big surprise this year. Firstly, he has FOUR movies coming out this year including Snow Cake which FINALLY hit US theaters in NY/LA. Also, Nobel Son which just premiered at Tribeca and is apparently causing a stir. Early news says there is a TON of buzz surrounding the movie there!!! Most especially around Rickman. Third, a little more Snape in July never hurt anything. And fourthly, Sweeney Todd which will be a big help as it's also a major role and also likely to be played just as vigorously as Nobel Son's role. I'm think he could turn in two awesomely outrageous performances and land himself a surprise Best Supporting Actor nomination for Nobel Son, or perhaps even Best Actor depending on whatever factors. But I think it's possible if the news I'm hearing about Nobel Son turns out to be true.