The RE series I do as preview (and postmortem) each season involves a series of questions and answers from two fans. I stole the idea from Bill James and his wonderful Abstracts. He’d have a “Rain Delay” chapter, often about potential hall of famers. It’s a wonderful trick, it’s kind of a mind exercise. I confess the ‘bold type’ fellow is a collection of you, posters over the decade plus of comments. Here we go.

THE ATHLETIC

The special Lowetide offer is here. I’m getting some questions about content. So, the offer I just linked to is for The Athletic, meaning you have access to Jonathan Willis and BlackDogHatesSkunks and Minnia Feng and Sunil Agnihotri, but also to pieces from people like Tyler Dellow. You can get access to all of the writers and I have to say it’s a massive site. I love the Pronman stuff and also the Lebrun, Duhatschek, Mirtle, et cetera. Brilliant damned site.

I’ll have No. 7 winter prospect up later today or first thing tomorrow. Lots of wingers and defenders have made the list so far, not a goalie or center in sight.

RAIN DELAY

Well, the season is over! Yeah, pretty close.

WAIT, what? I thought you’d say it wasn’t over! Well, we’re probably 10 days from talking trade deadline selloffs and then draft chatter in January. Maybe the club rips off four road wins in a row, but maybe Talbot lets in a goal 90 seconds in.

Take the gaspipe! This is my time to be angry! Oh, I’m sorry. Angry away.

You promised me a successful season! Ass!I did predict a strong year, slightly less impressive than a year ago. My bad. I’ll do better next year.

This is a very unsatisfactory interaction. If I had a dime for every time…

What went wrong?Well, most of the bets Peter Chiarelli made in summer haven’t worked out yet. Maybe they will long term and perhaps these solutions arrive just in time.

What bets haven’t worked out?Basically all of them. The penalty killers can’t penalty kill (although it is improving), Ryan Strome and Kris Russell haven’t covered their investment and none of the kid wingers have stepped up. Darnell Nurse has made a step forward and that’s a positive.

Anything else? Yes! Some veterans the team was counting on (Talbot, Letestu) have not delivered as expected.

Anything else else? Injuries (even beyond Sekera) have had a tremendous impact on the team’s fortunes. Even the annual November flu has taken a toll. Leon Draiasitl is an example but there are others.

How much of this is on Todd McLellan? Some, I’d say. He (like every coach) can be stubborn and his special teams are not rocking yet. I don’t blame him for leaving Leon Draisaitl on McDavid’s RW for so long, the combination of injuries and ineffective play forced his hand.

How much of this is on the players? There are many on the roster who are posting numbers well south of career norms, and several youngsters who are failing to grab NHL jobs that are just sitting there. If this team continues to struggle a lot of these men won’t be back.

Like? The kid wingers who aren’t teenagers are in trouble, third and fourth line are going to be looked at closely, they’ll move out some blue.

What is good on this team? I like the top of the batting order among forwards offensively 5×5. Leon Draisaitl (2.63), Connor McDavid (2.45), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2.26) and Milan Lucic (2.09) are all posting quality numbers. Patrick Maroon (1.75) is in the range but after that (next up: Ryan Strome, 1.26) the offense dies. It’s like a baseball team with automatic outs after their No. 5 hitter. But the top and heart of the order are quality.

Who do you like on defense?Everyone has their own preferred metric, I like Corsi Rel 5×5. Darnell Nurse (7.77), Yohann Auvitu (3.66) and Eric Gryba (3.34) are in the black. Adam Larsson (-1.72) and Oscar Klefbom (-2.24) are hovering around .500, while Matt Benning (-4.38) and Kris Russell (-6.87) are off the pace.

What about Talbot?He hasn’t been good enough. A .905SP is backup goalie territory. Oilers need more from him, I expect they will get it.

How much of this is on Peter Chiarelli?A lot, this is his club. Many of the bets PC made for this season (Strome, Slepyshev, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Slepyshev, Russell, Jokinen) haven’t worked out or have been slow off the mark. He is responsible for the roster.

Will it cost him the general manager’s job? I don’t think it will. The Oilers posted 103 points a season ago, Katz will give both GM and coach one more season to get it right.

Will PC make a trade? He might. If OEL and or Max Pacioretty come available, well that’s a pretty interesting scenario.

Who is on the block?If you’re trading for a big name, it’s going to take multiple pieces.

Three for one! Yes. Oscar, Jesse, the 2018 first rounder, any and all in the system, it’s a limited menu but there is some talent at the front end of the list.

Scott Howson doesn’t work for the Oilers. Yes, he does. V-P, Development.

You’re a lying sack of cement! Okay, fine. Have it your way.

Why do you hate Jesse Puljujarvi? I like him a lot, he’s a gigantic PF type and I bet he emerges as a 20-goal man, possibly soon. However, part of the reason Chiarelli dealt Taylor Hall (and Jordan Eberle) was based on the big Finn being able to establish himself as an NHL player with goal-scoring ability. It hasn’t happened yet. That isn’t hatred, that’s observation.

But you would trade him? For a young scoring-winger under control who is more established at the NHL level.

Should PC have drafted Sergachev? Yes. Or Tkachuk. That’s hindsight though, we (I) would have been all over him if the Oilers had passed on Puljujarvi.

Where did you have Sergachev on your list?I had Puljujarvi No. 3 and Sergachev No. 6. Source

What happens at the deadline? If the Oilers are buyers, look out. PC is going to load up ala Kevin Lowe in 2006. If they are sellers, look out the other way. Lots of men flying out of town, and that will be a harbinger of the change we’ll see in summer. If PC stays, some veterans are going to be gone (should the team miss the playoffs).

What one thing can Peter Chiarelli do to appease fans and help the team at the same time? Trade for Taylor Hall.

333 Responses to "Rain Delay"

who: I understand your disdain for Chia but you keep lumping his bad moves in with his okay ones when you are trying to make your point.
Think how good this roster would look if they hadn’t made the Reinhart deal and hadn’t signed Lucic. Those were his two big boo boos.
We traded Hall for Larsson and 2 mil of cap space plus 1 more year of team control. Both players playing well for new teams. Good deal for both sides in my book.
We traded Eberle for Strome and 3.5 mil of cap space and a little more roster flexibility. No, Strome isnot going to replace Eberles offense. But people who are saying Eberle would make the difference between winning and losing this year were not watching him last year. He was not a difference maker anymore.

I will never agree that the Hall for Larsson deal was a good deal.
Chiarelli traded Seguin….If we look at comparable for the Hall trade this trade would be it….almost mirror image players.
So why did Chiarelli manage to get more in that deal? Seguin was a 2 for 4 deal……Hall was a one for one deal!
frankly Chiarelli got smoked trading the exact same player for even less than he got for Seguin…

Last year was last year…….By that same logic RNH should be traded because he had an off year last year…..Does that make sense to you?

Eberle or Pouliot never needed to be touched this year and shouldn’t have been touched. If Eberle did struggle this year then you can still make the same trade for Strome at the deadline…However, if Eberle has the year hes having now, your trading from a postion of strength and the return would have been greater.

It all comes down to whether or not you believe his counted stats, including points, possession numbers, whatever, have value.

If you look at him and say, “too slow, too many turnovers, awful contract, I don’t know Ike’s him” the then fine. We don’t have anything to discuss.

But once again, lucic is a positive Corsi%, FF%, GF% and over 2.00 pts/60 at even strength.

And even though he’s only one posted 2 assists on the leagues 10th best power play (where’s he scored 24 points last yr), he is on pace for 50 points, on a team that has scored the leagues fewest goals. That pace would have put him in a tie for 89th for forward scoring, which puts him down as roughly the third best scorer on his team (first line).

This yr, despite hardly scoring on the PP, he is tied for 27th, ahead of pacioretty, who we are apparently willing to trade nuge + for. This also discounts his physicality (which I value) or his playoff scoring.

So yes, there is no doubt in my mind lucic is a first line LW, and will continue to be so for the next few years.

Boy I dunno.
I look at boxcars, like everyone else, but when I watch him play I just don’t see enough speed or puck skills to really compliment true skill players. I just think the speed and skill of the game has passed him by.
Pretty sure you can get the physicality on your third line for a lot less money and term.

In year one of McDavid, you are right that it is unreasonable to expect that team to be good. That said, you had Hall–RNH–Eberle, already established as one of the best lines in the league. You add McDavid to that, with Draisatl in the wings, and you have a good forward group. As you said, the problem is the defense.

Well as to that they had Klefbom, so he had to add 3 D, two of them on the right side, while not subtracting from the forwards. Even with the Hall and Eberle trades he still hasn’t added these 3 D, after three offseasons. So the forwards are much worse, while the D is better but not better enough, the cap is maxed out, and they don’t have any tradeable assets.

That is a big problem, but worse, it was so unnecessary, because each move that led to this place was self-inflicted.

Really not significantly different.Sakic only “wins” because Poile and Turris agree to do business.

Isn’t that kind of the point though. Sakic held out for over a year to find a deal he liked. Chiarelli, by all accounts, jumped on the first deal he found. Though Chiarelli may have had more pressure to make a move quickly.

If getting other GM’s to work together is why Sakic won, isn’t it valid to criticize Chia for not doing it?

Other dmen of similar caliber (Demers, Hamilton, Hamonic who aren’t all quite as good but they’re all in the same realm as Larsson) have all recently been moved for picks…

Bobcaygeon: I will never agree that the Hall for Larsson deal was a good deal.
Chiarelli traded Seguin….If we look at comparable for the Hall trade this trade would be it….almost mirror image players.
So why did Chiarelli manage to get more in that deal? Seguin was a 2 for 4 deal……Hall was a one for one deal!
frankly Chiarelli got smoked trading the exact same player for even less than he got for Seguin…

Last year was last year…….By that same logic RNH should be traded because he had an off year last year…..Does that make sense to you?

Eberle or Pouliot never needed to be touched this year and shouldn’t have been touched. If Eberle did struggle this year then you can still make the same trade for Strome at the deadline…However, if Eberle has the year hes having now, your trading from a postion of strength and the return would have been greater.

Re the Hall trade Larsson is a better player on a better contract than anything he got for Seguin.
What makes you think Eberle would be having a better season for Edmonton than he did last year. He was in clear decline here I hope he has a good year in New York but he didn’t stick on Tavares line and he may well be being zoomed by the incredible Matthew Barzal.

Bobcaygeon: I’m not saying JP was a mistake, I’m saying the Oilers should not have drafted him….

The thing about Kekalainen is he was an exceptional scout before he became a GM, to be totally honest and it pains me to say this, but,I wasa huge pusher of Tkachuk… Really wanted the Oilers to draft him..

So my hindsight isn’t the same as others.

Just like centers, it doesn’t matter what kind of defensive depth you have,the book on Sergachev was awesome, the Oilers don’t have a Sergachev in the system.

I like JP, I hope he turns into a NHL player but I’m seeinganother Paajarvi, the Oilers need skilled cheap wingers to play with RNH-Driasiatl-Mcdavid.

classict: Isn’t that kind of the point though. Sakic held out for over a year to find a deal he liked. Chiarelli, by all accounts, jumped on the first deal he found. Though Chiarelli may have had more pressure to make a move quickly.

If getting other GM’s to work together is why Sakic won, isn’t it valid to criticize Chia for not doing it?

Other dmen of similar caliber (Demers, Hamilton, Hamonic who aren’t all quite as good but they’re all in the same realm as Larsson) have all recently been moved for picks…

The oilers look like they’ve dodged a bullet with the amonic trade.

That’s a lot to pay for a dman who’s having another awful year. The only positive about that deal is hamonic contract is small enough he might be able to be moved or else buried relatively cheap.

Chiarelli also offered more than Calgary for Hamilton. Boston chose to take a lesser return to send him to our rivals.

IMO, MacTs best moves were Paajarvi for Perron, and then Perron for a 1st (the 1st round pick Chiarelli gave up to get Reinhart, heh).

His worst was hands down the Petry trade.

For Chiarelli, his best was Talbot for picks, followed closely by Maroon. his worst was hands down the Rienhart trade.

MacTavish didn’t really make many big trades in his time as GM. So he didn’t lose trades as badly as Chiarelli, but he also didn’t try to make them. The thing is the worst thing MacT did in his time here as GM wasn’t a move, but the absence of a move: refusing to fire Dallas Eakins.

That non-move, IMO, did more damage to the team than anything Chiarelli has done so far, because it screwed the players up mentally (RIP Yakupov, Dubnyk, Perron, Gagner, Schultz – am I forgetting anybody?) and it took years to undo the damage from the Eakins Era.

It created the “culture” Chiarelli allegedly tried to change by trading Hall and Eberle for pennies on the dollar.

Peter Chiarelli actually never made the Talbot trade……..The Talbot trade was made the year before between Sather & MacTavish to be consummated at the draft the following year.
Sather still kept his word and the deal went down. Chiarelli had little to do with the actual trade as the picks had already been agreed upon.

who: Boy I dunno.
I look at boxcars, like everyone else, but when I watch him play I just don’t see enough speed or puck skills to really compliment true skill players. I just think the speed and skill of the game has passed him by.
Pretty sure you can get the physicality on your third line for a lot less money and term.

Fair enough.

I’m looking at his stats, and once again they are in first line territory.

And I prefer physicality on every line. And that’s not all that lucic brings, as I mentioned.

“Would you consider it a bargain if his performance next year matches what his performance this year to date?”.

YES, YES & YES.

OP:McD has 25 Pts in 20 GMS..On Pace for 100 again.If he puts up 100 pts year over year he will always be in contention for the Art Ross.Only a handful of players EVER have done that.So would I pay $12.5 Mil for a perreninial 100 pt player?All day Long.

We are taking about a world where his cap hit is $2M higher than the next highest cap hit.

In order to provide value for that contract, just being in contention for the Art Ross is not enough.

The contract provides a huge premium over the next highest for him to perform as, hands down, the best player in the league.

He was that last year, he hasn’t been that so far this year. He very well may end up as that this year and every year for the next 8 but, as of now, he’s only been among the better players in the league and probably wouldn’t be in contention for the Hart.

Every other player with a big contract gets compared to his contract comparables – McDavid doesn’t even have any contract comparables as he’s materially higher than the next.

I don’t expect many (any) to agree with me on this – I’m one of the few that actually thought his contract was too high when he signed it as I compare it to the other contracts in the league.

With all that said, very soon there will be contracts that are greater than $10.5M so the delta between him and everyone else won’t be so big.

classict Chiarelli, by all accounts, jumped on the first deal he found.

Bobcaygeon: Peter Chiarelli actually never made the Talbot trade……..The Talbot trade was made the year before between Sather & MacTavish to be consummated at the draft the following year.
Sather still kept his word and the deal went down. Chiarelli had little to do with the actual trade as the picks had already been agreed upon.

Here’s a thought. If you want credibility. Try citing a credible source instead of this rumour mongering. Something a little more tangible than ‘by all accounts’

who: Boy I dunno.
I look at boxcars, like everyone else, but when I watch him play I just don’t see enough speed or puck skills to really compliment true skill players. I just think the speed and skill of the game has passed him by.
Pretty sure you can get the physicality on your third line for a lot less money and term.

Bag of Pucks: It’s kind of immaterial how a player looks if he’s producing, no?

Not necessarily. If the player has trouble getting to and controlling pucks on the boards in his own end, if he has trouble keeping up through the neutral zone and can’t seem to execute a give and go with his linemates I do start to question his effectiveness.
If his linemates are scoring he may be posting some boxcars, and he deserves credit for some of this, but his game could be well below average in other areas.
To summarize, I think Lucic is still a useful hockey player at this point. But he is a second line winger, at best, and probably 2 to 3 million overpaid. Chris Stewart in Minnesota would be a good comparable.

Are you referring to the Yamo experiment that stole top 6 minutes away from veterans that bled for this team just 5 months prior in the playoffs ?
A slap in the face to almost every player on the team.
McLellan might have signed his own walking papers with that farce .

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Peeped the scout list tonight for CBJ/BUF and Flames GM Brad Treliving is again on the list here. Joining the list tonight is Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli.

who: Not necessarily. If the player has trouble getting toand controlling pucks on the boards in his own end, if he has trouble keeping up through the neutral zone and can’t seem to execute a give and go with his linemates I do start to question his effectiveness.
If his linemates are scoring he may be posting some boxcars, and he deserves credit for some of this, but his game could be well below average in other areas.
To summarize, I think Lucic is still a useful hockey player at this point.But he is a second line winger, at best, and probably 2 to 3 million overpaid. Chris Stewart in Minnesota would be a good comparable.

What you’re describing sounds like confirmation bias to me.

Lucic .60 P/GP this season. Chris Stewart .42 P/GP. One of these things is not like the other.

I don’t 100000% disagree with you here. I feel Draisaitl is more overpaid than McDavid, though. The fact we got McDavid for less than league maximum was quite lucky IMO. I thought the threat of an offer sheet would have forced Chia to just max him out.

The scoring race is close right now but we’re only 20 games into the season and he’s been sick for a few of those games, or playing with Yamamoto for a few more. As the season progresses I think we’ll see him start to get ahead of the bunch.

It’s different looking at a player and a team 20 games in, especially a player like McDavid, in my opinion. I think it’s easier to predict that McDavid will get back to doing McDavid things than the team as a whole because there’s aren’t as many important factors for the player compared to the team (ie the team can’t get better until the bottom 6 scores more and Talbot returns to form, Sekera comes back, etc… but that minimally affects McDavids overall production, IMO).

So, the Oilers players came back from their day off today and practiced.

It’s nice to see both Slep and Reggie on the ice although neither will play tomorrow (Reggie not until December).

Curious to find out who starts in goal tomorrow. One would think Brossoit would get the net (for sure in one of the two back to backs) but my guess is coach goes with Cam and I look for him to bounce back and parlay some strong tending In to a winning streak.

Lowetide:
Joe Yerdon‏
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Peeped the scout list tonight for CBJ/BUF and Flames GM Brad Treliving is again on the list here. Joining the list tonight is Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli.

TheVengeFulOne: Fuck you sellout. I did nothing wrong. I still can’t believe you think you are worth more than a newspaper or magazine, which people don’t buy anymore anyway. The community here has died like at ON, and tbh the Oilers aren’t worth my time anymore.

I want to give you some perspective. It is entirely possible Connor McDavid will turn out to be, when adjusted for era the greatest offensive player of all time.

If he simply played like he is this year for the entire length of his next contract he would be in very select company. Having had 100 points last year and being on pace for a hundred this year means a continuation for his entire contract ends with him having 10 seasons of 100 points or more.

So some similar players:

Wayne Gretzky – 14 seasons of 100 points or more
Mario Lemieux – 10 seasons of 100 points or more
Marcel Dionne – 8 seasons of 100 points or more
Group of guys with 6 seasons of a 100 or more points. All are in the top 20 scorers of all time.

Now I personally have my doubts that McDavid is worth $12.5 Million a year but you can certainly make a solid argument that if he keeps playing the way he is now for the rest of this season and then the next eight that his next contract is a value contract. Let’s just hope he isn’t poor Marcel Dionne, destined to be the greatest player never to win a Stanley Cup.

It all comes down to whether or not you believe his counted stats, including points, possession numbers, whatever, have value.

If you look at him and say, “too slow, too many turnovers, awful contract, I don’t know Ike’s him” the then fine. We don’t have anything to discuss.

But once again, lucic is a positive Corsi%, FF%, GF% and over 2.00 pts/60 at even strength.

And even though he’s only one posted 2 assists on the leagues 10th best power play (where’s he scored 24 points last yr), he is on pace for 50 points, on a team that has scored the leagues fewest goals. That pace would have put him in a tie for 89th for forward scoring, which puts him down as roughly the third best scorer on his team (first line).

This yr, despite hardly scoring on the PP, he is tied for 27th, ahead of pacioretty, who we are apparently willing to trade nuge + for. This also discounts his physicality (which I value) or his playoff scoring.

So yes, there is no doubt in my mind lucic is a first line LW, and will continue to be so for the next few years.

This seems eerily similar to a player defended by many on this blog when I first started coming around.

People would say he was slow, disengaged and lazy.

The stats folks would say he had all kinds of positive shot metrics and contributes to winning hockey games.

That player was Dustin Penner.

It seems a lot of the people who would have been on the Penner bandwagon back then are taking an opposite side to the Lucic talk.

This is what I mean about how a rational conversation requires a common language. If you don’t think Hall-RNH-Eberle wasn’t one of the best lines in hockey then you are living in an alternate universe in which words have no meaning.

Communication requires a common language and some common experience. Your views on hockey aren’t simply wrong, they are alien and unintelligible.

I think it makes sense. Our GM lost the Hall trade, but in doing so made the team better. Arguably, he also lost the Eberle trade in order to free up cap space, which depending what he eventually does with that cap space could make the team better. I’m less convinced the 2nd one was necessary.

The point I’m trying to make is that, given the position Chia was in when he took over, he had zero leverage in any trade with any GM in the league. Every GM knew he did not have an NHL defence, that he was under intense pressure to turn the team around immediately, and that he had a surplus of fast offensive wingers. My question to Cassandra is, would any GM have been able to do better in Chia’s position? Possibly, but in my personal opinion, it’s hard to paint Chia as “the worst GM in the league” because you don’t like Lucic and you love Hall.

I want to give you some perspective. It is entirely possible Connor McDavid will turn out to be, when adjusted for era the greatest offensive player of all time.

If he simply played like he is this year for the entire length of his next contract he would be in very select company. Having had 100 points last year and being on pace for a hundred this year means a continuation for his entire contract ends with him having 10 seasons of 100 points or more.

So some similar players:

Wayne Gretzky – 14 seasons of 100 points or more
Mario Lemieux – 10 seasons of 100 points or more
Marcel Dionne – 8 seasons of 100 points or more
Group of guys with 6 seasons of a 100 or more points. All are in the top 20 scorers of all time.

Now I personally have my doubts that McDavid is worth $12.5 Million a year but you can certainly make a solid argument that if he keeps playing the way he is now for the rest of this season and then the next eight that his next contract is a value contract. Let’s just hope he isn’t poor Marcel Dionne, destined to be the greatest player never to win a Stanley Cup.

If he plays like this over the term of his contract then, potentially, over that 8 year term, he is the best player in the league and has earned the highest cap hit in the league.

Of course, he could not be the best player in the league in any particular year (like he hasn’t been this year to date) and still, due to consistency of being in the top 5-7 players every year, be the best player in the league over the term.

Time can only tell on those matters.

With that said, I am simply looking at this particular year and the conversation was if he would be value for his new contract next year if his performance replicated this year. I will stand by my position that, if he’s the 6th “best player in the league” but has the highest cap hit then, no, he is not value for that contract.

Of course, within a few years he may not even have the highest cap hit – shit, Auston Matthews is going to come very close this spring.

I think this ignores a lot of contextual factors, personally. I don’t know that any trade can be fairly compared to the Hall trade, given the state of the team when that trade was made.

Bobcaygeon: I will never agree that the Hall for Larsson deal was a good deal.
Chiarelli traded Seguin….If we look at comparable for the Hall trade this trade would be it….almost mirror image players.
So why did Chiarelli manage to get more in that deal? Seguin was a 2 for 4 deal……Hall was a one for one deal!
frankly Chiarelli got smoked trading the exact same player for even less than he got for Seguin…

Last year was last year…….By that same logic RNH should be traded because he had an off year last year…..Does that make sense to you?

Eberle or Pouliot never needed to be touched this year and shouldn’t have been touched. If Eberle did struggle this year then you can still make the same trade for Strome at the deadline…However, if Eberle has the year hes having now, your trading from a postion of strength and the return would have been greater.

I’m not a huge Lucic fan but this is a pretty good argument. He remains, if nothing else, a unique and fascinating player.

Last year he had the worst season of his career at evens, and the best on PP, evening out to a standard 50 points. I wondered which one of these would regress. Surely one of them had to.

And you’re saying they both did? More than regressed, they switched extremes? I can’t explain that at all (Haven’t been able to catch as many games this year).

I don’t think it’s fair to harp on the eye test if a guy is getting results. You make some good arguments Lucic is, and rather than debating you there I’ll just grant you the point. Even then, it is impossible to look past his cap hit and the opportunity cost of acquiring him. This isn’t at all fair to Lucic, who maybe deserves more credit than he gets around here.

Were Hall, Ebs and Nuge one of the best lines in the NHL in 2014-15? Maybe they were. I just find that surprising, if true. What are you basing that evaluation on?

I think Larsson is a legit d-man. You could argue he’s not top pair (I would disagree) but certainly top 4. Bringing him in pushed everyone else down the depth chart, and that had huge value. Chia recruited and signed Benning who may or may not be a legit top 4, but certainly top 6. That’s 2 right-shooting d-men. He also signed Klefbom to a great value contract, and (love him or hate him) brought in Russell, who is at least a legitimate NHL player. Do you dismiss all of these moves, and if so, why?

In year one of McDavid, you are right that it is unreasonable to expect that team to be good.That said, you had Hall–RNH–Eberle, already established as one of the best lines in the league.You add McDavid to that, with Draisatl in the wings, and you have a good forward group.As you said, the problem is the defense.

Well as to that they had Klefbom, so he had to add 3 D, two of them on the right side, while not subtracting from the forwards.Even with the Hall and Eberle trades he still hasn’t added these 3 D, after three offseasons.So the forwards are much worse, while the D is better but not better enough, the cap is maxed out, and they don’t have any tradeable assets.

That is a big problem, but worse, it was so unnecessary, because each move that led to this place was self-inflicted.

I assume we’re nearing the point at which point TMac will shrug and start playing LB, because what’s to gain by running Talbot into the ground in a losing season? At least make it clear to your GM what LB is (or isn’t).

IF it was Nuge it better be Jones. Or I’ll have to spend too much time trying to get over it, again. I’m ok with Nuge +, but there are two CBJ D that are good enough for Nuge and Savard and Murray aren’t them. Plus RM is a lefty from a poor draft year .

I assume we’re nearing the point at which point TMac will shrug and start playing LB, because what’s to gain by running Talbot into the ground in a losing season? At least make it clear to your GM what LB is (or isn’t).

IF it was Nuge it better be Jones. Or I’ll have to spend too much time trying to get over it, again. I’m ok with Nuge +, but there are two CBJ D that are good enough for Nuge and Savard and Murray aren’t them. Plus RM is a lefty from a poor draft year .

There is almost no chance CBJ moves Jones now. They sold high on Johansen and got their 1 RHD for the next decade.

That was too bad because if the rumours were true that Nuge for Jones was being discussed before CBJ trumped that offer with Johansen, no Hall for Larsson trade either

Now I don’t even think Drai would fetch Jones when contracts are factored in.

IF it was Nuge it better be Jones. Or I’ll have to spend too much time trying to get over it, again. I’m ok with Nuge +, but there are two CBJ D that are good enough for Nuge and Savard and Murray aren’t them. Plus RM is a lefty from a poor draft year .

Nuge wasn’t enough to get Jones 2 years ago. I doubt he’s enough to acquire him now. No way is Columbus trading Jones anyway.

That was too bad because if the rumours were true that Nuge for Jones was being discussed before CBJ trumped that offer with Johansen, no Hall for Larsson trade either

Now I don’t even think Drai would fetch Jones when contracts are factored in.

I know. If it’s Nuge they need to look elsewhere for D. I have always been a Hainsey fan as a steady Eddy, he would have looked a lot better than Russell for 25% and two years less on the less deep side.

Hindsight notwithstanding Nurse was a better unproven bet than Benning and had more back up off the farm. Hainsey was good for the Pens and can play first pair for the best team in the history of everything, assuming of course he would sign.

I’m not a huge Lucic fan but this is a pretty good argument. He remains, if nothing else, a unique and fascinating player.

Last year he had the worst season of his career at evens, and the best on PP, evening out to a standard 50 points. I wondered which one of these would regress. Surely one of them had to.

And you’re saying they both did? More than regressed, they switched extremes? I can’t explain that at all (Haven’t been able to catch as many games this year).

I don’t think it’s fair to harp on the eye test if a guy is getting results. You make some good arguments Lucic is, and rather than debating you there I’ll just grant you the point. Even then, it is impossible to look past his cap hit and the opportunity cost of acquiring him. This isn’t at all fair to Lucic, who maybe deserves more credit than he gets around here.

But it is perfectly fair to Chia.

Sure.

I’m saying if you cannot see lucic as a first line player, and lump him in as a bad contract, I’m going to assume you cannot seperate the hall trade from the player.

I’m sure he’ll eventually regress to second line, but he’s paid his worth, and it’s full value right now.

I think he should be first line now because Maroon isn’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball so far. Maroon has always been a very talented and smart player but very streaky as the aforementioned Pancakes. And dead slow , I think slower than Lucic and now a featherweight because he lost to the stork. I jest.

stush18: I’m saying if you cannot see lucic as a first line player, and lump him in as a bad contract, I’m going to assume you cannot seperate the hall trade from the player.

I liked the Lucic get but did not like the contract on the day the signing happened.

Still feel the same.

By stats this year, many would say he has first line numbers.

By eye, some believe he is not quick and skilled enough to play top 6.

I’m somewhere in between both those thoughts. My belief is that RNH is carrying that line right now but I don’t think it is sustainable without at good top 6 right winger and unless Draisaitl stays on the right wing I don’t think we will see RNH and Lucic over 2 pts/60 at the end of the year.

I’m saying if you cannot see lucic as a first line player, and lump him in as a bad contract, I’m going to assume you cannot seperate the hall trade from the player.

THeres been one bad contract. It’s Russell.

The rest have been full value or wins imo

Lucic isn’t a bad contract? Patty Maroon scored as a first line rate last year, I’d call him a complimentary player. Lucic is much the same, but is paid too much for too long. You might be one of the only people on this planet that think he’s a good contract.

frjohnk: I liked the Lucic get but did not like the contract on the day the signing happened.

Still feel the same.

By stats this year, many would say he has first line numbers.

By eye, some believe he is not quick and skilled enough to play top 6.

I’m somewhere in between both those thoughts.My belief is that RNH is carrying that line right now but I don’t think it is sustainable without at good top 6 right winger and unless Draisaitl stays on the right wing I don’t think we will see RNH and Lucic over 2 pts/60 at the end of the year.

He’s good for an errant pass a period, that’s not good. He’s scoring more 5×5 and that’s good, but he and Maroon are somewhat similar and Lucic has the long-term deal. Edmonton needs to add speed next summer, suspect Maroon leaves and they add a burner

I’m saying if you cannot see lucic as a first line player, and lump him in as a bad contract, I’m going to assume you cannot seperate the hall trade from the player.

THeres been one bad contract. It’s Russell.

The rest have been full value or wins imo

I have never lumped the Lucic signing in with the Hall trade.
Liked the Hall trade. Thought the deal made sense for both teams.
Wish the Oilers would have stopped there. Think they committed too much money and term to Lucic. Just my opinion. Makes for a good debate.

frjohnk: I liked the Lucic get but did not like the contract on the day the signing happened.

Still feel the same.

By stats this year, many would say he has first line numbers.

By eye, some believe he is not quick and skilled enough to play top 6.

I’m somewhere in between both those thoughts.My belief is that RNH is carrying that line right now but I don’t think it is sustainable without at good top 6 right winger and unless Draisaitl stays on the right wing I don’t think we will see RNH and Lucic over 2 pts/60 at the end of the year.

At evens? Maybe not.

But lucic will put up 50+ points, continue playing physical, play close to or all 82 games, finish scoring at a first line rate, and finish above 50% corsi%, FF%,and GF%.

1) Talbot, last year, was 6th in the NHL in quality start percentage (from Vollman, % of starts with an .885 save percentage facing at least 20 shots) and number one overall in the number of quality starts (assuming > 60 starts). This year, he is 20th in QS percenage (including anyone with >10 starts).

So that’s going from borderline Vezina goaltending to below average.

2) Sekera injured, Klefbom and Benning playing like they are. Nurse has taken a step forward and that is great, but half of last year’s D-core is for all intents and purposes not here right now.

3) We are in PDO hell, which is even starting to bite McDavid.

I disagree that the team is poorly built. I don’t think Talbot is a bad goalie, or that Benning and Klefbom have forgotten to play hockey.

I do think a lot of bad things are happening at the same time. The silver lining is that the underlying numbers are there; if everything starts to click, things could get turned around very quickly.

who: I have never lumped the Lucic signing in with the Hall trade.
Liked the Hall trade. Thought the deal made sense for both teams.
Wish the Oilers would have stopped there. Think they committed too much money and term to Lucic. Just my opinion.Makes for a good debate.

I think most agree it’s too much term.

He prolly just doesn’t sign here then. And this is where the disconnect happens.

And this is where the disconnect happens. People will say,

“don’t sign him, just keep hall”
“But what will we do for dmen”
“Sign Demers”
“He said older, more expensive, and not as good”
“No the combination of hall + Demers is better than lucic + Larsson”

At some point we must acknowledge that we cant just blame the roster make-up of this team when a team formed mostly from scraps is for the most part leading the division (1 point back 2 games in hand).
Jokinen in his first 3 games doubled his point output while Cammalleri has no points.

1) Talbot, last year, was 6th in the NHL in quality start percentage (from Vollman, % of starts with an .885 save percentage facing at least 20 shots) and number one overall in the number of quality starts (assuming > 60 starts). This year, he is 20th in QS percenage (including anyone with >10 starts).

So that’s going from borderline Vezina goaltending to below average.

2) Sekera injured, Klefbom and Benning playing like they are. Nurse has taken a step forward and that is great, but half of last year’s D-core is for all intents and purposes not here right now.

3) We are in PDO hell, which is even starting to bite McDavid.

I disagree that the team is poorly built. I don’t think Talbot is a bad goalie, or that Benning and Klefbom have forgotten to play hockey.

I do think a lot of bad things are happening at the same time. The silver lining is that the underlying numbers are there; if everything starts to click, things could get turned around very quickly.

In a way this team this year could be compared to EBERLE last year.
Underlying numbers were good but he had a poor shooting %, unfortunately it lasted a year.
This year he is back on track to his normal scoring rates.

Hopefully it does not take the team a whole year to turn it around, cause if it does I think there will be significant roster changes.

leadfarmer:
At some point we must acknowledge that we cant just blame the roster make-up of this team when a team formed mostly from scraps is for the most part leading the division (1 point back 2 games in hand).
Jokinen in his first 3 games doubled his point output while Cammalleri has no points.

You mean he got 1 assist on a Drew Doughty power play goal 😉

It’s a lot easier to double 1 point than it is to double 7. Actually I wouldn’t mind seeing Cammaleri on the first power play for a game to see what he can do.

9 out of 10 Oilers fans/armchair GM’s are in full on panic/sitting on the angry chair this season so far. By current observations, Chiarelli shouldn’t be the GM of a kids road hockey team, due to his supposed incompetence. Taylor Hall would have delivered 10 Stanley Cups(McDavid be damned!) Lucic is worth a 7th round pick…
Fans, media folk and doubters far and wide seem to have their collective minds already made up, this team sucks.
What we experienced last year was an utter anomaly, the Oilers will never, ever make the promised land of the playoffs again!

Chiarelli is scouting Bud/CLB…
McDavid, Klefbom to Buffalo for Eichel and Ristolainen
Call Shero up in NJ, beg, borrow and plead to trade Hall back; send Larsson, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Russell(because the man can’t play hockey, RIGHT OILER FANS?!?)
When all of this is said and done, Fire Chia, name MacT GM for life, give Eakins a call to see if he’d be game to take over(only after the ink has dried on a 25 year contract, sans doughnuts).
Pretty sure all would be kosher, nirvana like in Edmonton.

Sarcasm aside, I more than completely understand the angst and frustration. Hell I was nutty enough to go with the Oil finishing with well over a 100pts, but things don’t exactly go as we hope now do they?
I’m not ready to give the team, management or the fans Last Rites over a unexpected glitch in the system. It takes time. Patience. Good with the bad.

theycallmeBill:
9 out of 10 Oilers fans/armchair GM’s are in full on panic/sitting on the angry chair this season so far. By current observations, Chiarelli shouldn’t be the GM of a kids road hockey team, due to his supposed incompetence. Taylor Hall would have delivered 10 Stanley Cups(McDavid be damned!) Lucic is worth a 7th round pick…
Fans, media folk and doubters far and wide seem to have their collective minds already made up, this team sucks.
What we experienced last year was an utter anomaly, the Oilers will never, ever make the promised land of the playoffs again!

Chiarelli is scouting Bud/CLB…
McDavid, Klefbom to Buffalo for Eichel and Ristolainen
Call Shero up in NJ, beg, borrow and plead to trade Hall back; send Larsson, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Russell(because the man can’t play hockey, RIGHT OILER FANS?!?)
When all of this is said and done, Fire Chia, name MacT GM for life, give Eakins a call to see if he’d be game to take over(only after the ink has dried on a 25 year contract, sans doughnuts).
Pretty sure all would be kosher, nirvana like in Edmonton.

Sarcasm aside, I more than completely understand the angst and frustration. Hell I was nutty enough to go with the Oil finishing with well over a 100pts, but things don’t exactly go as we hope now do they?
I’m not ready to give the team, management or the fans Last Rites over a unexpected glitch in the system. It takes time. Patience. Good with the bad.

I don’t really think your taking in account the people that were bemoaning Chia before last years success and still continue throughout to this day. Patience and time with Chia at the helm could cripple this teams prospect at being a cup contender year in and year out.

OriginalPouzar: We are taking about a world where his cap hit is $2M higher than the next highest cap hit.

In order to provide value for that contract, just being in contention for the Art Ross is not enough.

The contract provides a huge premium over the next highest for him to perform as, hands down, the best player in the league.

He was that last year, he hasn’t been that so far this year.He very well may end up as that this year and every year for the next 8 but, as of now, he’s only been among the better players in the league and probably wouldn’t be in contention for the Hart.

Every other player with a big contract gets compared to his contract comparables – McDavid doesn’t even have any contract comparables as he’s materially higher than the next.

I don’t expect many (any) to agree with me on this – I’m one of the few that actually thought his contract was too high when he signed it as I compare it to the other contracts in the league.

With all that said, very soon there will be contracts that are greater than $10.5M so the delta between him and everyone else won’t be so big.

If you want to compare contracts I think you have to compare percentage of cap at the time of signing.

I think it makes sense. Our GM lost the Hall trade, but in doing so made the team better. Arguably, he also lost the Eberle trade in order to free up cap space, which depending what he eventually does with that cap space could make the team better. I’m less convinced the 2nd one was necessary.

The point I’m trying to make is that, given the position Chia was in when he took over, he had zero leverage in any trade with any GM in the league. Every GM knew he did not have an NHL defence, that he was under intense pressure to turn the team around immediately, and that he had a surplus of fast offensive wingers. My question to Cassandra is, would any GM have been able to do better in Chia’s position? Possibly, but in my personal opinion, it’s hard to paint Chia as “the worst GM in the league” because you don’t like Lucic and you love Hall.

No offence, but I really dislike the argument that he had to accept less because every GM knew he had to make a deal. It’s all conjecture and highly unlikely.

I don’t really think your taking in account the people that were bemoaning Chia before last years success and still continue throughout to this day. Patience and time with Chia at the helm could cripple this teams prospect at being a cup contender year in and year out.

Point taken and completely understood.
But… if it’s not Chiarelli’s supposed failure, it was MacTavish that was to blame or Lowe’s fault. What I was/am trying to get across is, how many of us(fans) could and would do a better job managing a NHL team? We all have favourite players and ones we detest, yet it’s a thankless job. Heck, look at Boston. They were certain it was all China’s fault, Sweeney and Neely were going to duplicate magic and Cups would be abound.
It is awesome that we as fans can become so enamoured cheering the good times and heartbroken and angry when the team is not performing. But the pure vitriol that gets thrown around like a blind man throwing grenades isn’t helpful to anyone in the long run. Coaches, GM’s, players, they are human. Mistakes are made. Success leads to high expectations. It is a game. One WE all love. At the end of the day, win or lose, it is a game.
Does a game mean so much that it’s the norm to question a man’s(or men’s) intelligence and worth?
Sometimes, we just let a game overtake what’s important is all.
Perhaps I am horribly wrong.

– And I think so many struggle with how much luck is involved, trying to assign narratives

This could have happened:

– Sleppy really stepped up after the playoffs last year, he’s humming as the W for Drai

– RNH he’s a bum, his best years are past him

– Nurse, he just can’t seem to get it together, no hockey IQ

– Man Drai seems lazy after signing that big contract: brutal

– Kailer might be shooting at 33% I know its not sustainable, but he deserves to stay, his chem with McDavid is awesome, rookie of the year?

– Klef-Larsson are really emerging as an elite top-pairing

– Talbot, he’s really looking like a Vezina G this year: stealing games

Shit happens, then its human nature to make conclusions…We just don’t know, because there is so much variability.So we accept that what the players are doing now was inevitable, and predictable.

And that’s why you don’t make too many bets at once.

Look at it this way… Chiarelli is at a casino. He bets all his money, and loses it all (well… Most of it). If he goes to the casino and tells them he just had a string of bad luck and wants his money back, what would the casino do? They’d say tough luck and boot him out.

I’m just not sure if the casino in this story is the organization or the fans. Right now I think it’s the fans.

I hope this makes sense. Been a long day and I just got off work so I could just be rambling right now.

Anyone else here excited for a solid 60 minute performance from our team tonight – all 18 skaters and the starting tender?

Most of me thinks Brossoit should get the start (he needs to start either today or tomorrow one would think) but part of me also thinks that a comeback game from Talbot would be best for the team going forward.

I will take a solid performance from Brossoit tonight giving the team a chance to win and then a come-back performance from Talbot tomorrow – both parlaying it in to 7 points in the last 4 games of this trip.

I previously had an inkling of an idea that McDavid was playing more elite comp to pump nuge’s tires for the inevitable cap dump, however, it sounds like that line has been lucky too.

That was a brilliant article.
Even though many of the numbers we see in the public advanced stats database show the team as being near the top, they dont tell us everything. Young Willis does a fantastic job in delving in further into the numbers and they are not as great.

Im not surprised to see Lucic and RNH as a smoke and mirrors second line. They have had a very good start in the first 20 games numbers wise, but I have had a feeling that it was not sustainable. Having the second line getting outchanced does not spell good depth. Not having a good RW is a part of it though.

“heavy hockey” is hurting this team. Those players are taking too many penalties and not enough being drawn. Its costing the team points.

Small sample size but, in rookie camp games, he seemed to be the more involved player (vis-a-vis Maksimov) – both made some fantastic offensive plays, mainly with their quick release shots, however, from what I saw, Safin was more engaged on the boards and on the backcheck.

Somewhat meaningless given the sample size.

What is not meaningless is 2nd in the Q in rookie scoring and 1st in shots (not for rookies, overall) – those stats were last week so they may have changed but this player is having a very nice transition to North America and major junior.

I look forward to reading this article a little later today.

Got busy at the office, couple new big deals (thank god) – its great news and good deals but its interfering with my “keeping up on everything Oilers”.

“In an age of parity, only the really great teams are immune to bad seasons, but the overarching ambition under Chiarelli has never been to build a great team. Instead, the focus has been on building a safe team. The GM has leaked and the coach has sidelined talent in countless instances, in the name of getting bigger and better defensively and cutting a few goals against off the overall team total — even when it means the team has a bigger decline in the goals-for department. It is as if the overall goal was to replicate the Jacques Lemaire Minnesota Wild, except with McDavid as a first-line centre.

We’ve delved deep at the individual level here, but the truth is that this season coming to the brink of failure isn’t the result of individual players. It’s the result of uninspired team-building, which whittled away at the Oilers potential until they were vulnerable enough that a half-dozen players going the wrong way could sink Edmonton into this kind of hole.”

Cassandra: This is what I mean about how a rational conversation requires a common language.If you don’t think Hall-RNH-Eberle wasn’t one of the best lines in hockey then you are living in an alternate universe in which words have no meaning.

Communication requires a common language and some common experience.Your views on hockey aren’t simply wrong, they are alien and unintelligible.

Sorry, that was a snarky response. Shouldn’t have done it, we can disagree and still be rational.

I really think the fans are foaming at the mouth over Chia about things other than this current team and this disappointing season.

First – the expectations and hype this summer and fall were out of control. Nothing is owed in professional sports.

Second – The idea that Hall – RNH – Eberle was an elite group of players and Chia sold us down the river or betrayed our rebuild hopes by moving them is a bit overdone. Truth is, they weren’t and aren’t.

Above average – sure, but all three have flaws. Mostly not by their own fault, with the lockout (too easy hockey in the AHL a detriment and not helpful), rotating coaches and systems, poor roster support, paid too much and too soon, bad defense, Eakins, etc.

Obviously a GM is going to be criticized based on his entire tenure, but no matter who took over the Oilers at the end of the rebuild, they’d have done something similar. No GM wanted to give us perceived value for those players and we had to make moves with our at higher level assets to move forward.

Cassandra:
Willis nailed it with that article.The athletic is awesome.

Here’s the closing.He’s exactly right.

“In an age of parity, only the really great teams are immune to bad seasons, but the overarching ambition under Chiarelli has never been to build a great team. Instead, the focus has been on building a safe team. The GM has leaked and the coach has sidelined talent in countless instances, in the name of getting bigger and better defensively and cutting a few goals against off the overall team total — even when it means the team has a bigger decline in the goals-for department. It is as if the overall goal was to replicate the Jacques Lemaire Minnesota Wild, except with McDavid as a first-line centre.

We’ve delved deep at the individual level here, but the truth is that this season coming to the brink of failure isn’t the result of individual players. It’s the result of uninspired team-building, which whittled away at the Oilers potential until they were vulnerable enough that a half-dozen players going the wrong way could sink Edmonton into this kind of hole.”

Somebody might have mentioned something about a #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach two years ago! -).

Puljujarvi comes up on fire playing his game from Bakersfield, and McLellan starts telling him to bounce shots off of the goaltenders pads again, and his game goes to pot.

The longer Puljujarvi is near McLellan, the more confused he gets, because he is being asked to play contrary to his offensive instincts. McDavid and Draisaitl don’t listen. Unfortunately, Klefbom listens. Nurse listened to Oates.

Nope. It’s not. If you have a subscription read Dellow on The Athletic. Only 1 of the last 36 teams with less than 17 points at the 20 game mark made the playoff (WSH in 07-08), and that was only because they finished the season with a crazy 11-1 in their final 12. That’s less than 3%. I think it’s time to sell early. Maroon to STL and let them negotiate a contract early to increase return. Letestu? Auvitu? Cammalleri? Stock up on prospects and picks. They’ll need those value contracts in the next few years. It would also increase their chance at “Fallin’ for Dahlin”.