Week of wins gives hope to Texas Democrats

Senate Democrats Wendy Davis and Jose Rodriguez celebrate last week at the Capitol after the filibuster led by Davis defeated the GOP's anti-abortion bill.

Photo: Erich Schlegel, Stringer

WASHINGTON - The tumultuous events of the past week have convinced long-dispirited Texas Democrats that there's a glimmer of light at the end of their decades-long political tunnel.

From the rowdy gallery of the Texas Senate to the quiet grandeur of the U.S. Supreme Court chamber, Democrats were supercharged by dramatic events of momentous importance: the late-night filibuster by State Sen. Wendy Davis against one of the nation's toughest abortion restriction laws; an overwhelming bipartisan victory for comprehensive immigration reform in the U.S. Senate, over the objections of Texas' Republican senators; and a high court ruling that gutted key provisions of the 1965 Voting Rights Act.

In victory and defeat alike, there were jolts of energy unlike any felt by Lone Star Democrats since the GOP took complete control of state government a decade ago.

"Texas Democrats have dug themselves a big hole over the last 20 years," said Austin Democratic consultant Harold Cook. "In one week, Republicans have done all they can to backfill much of it."

The high-profile social issues of immigration, abortion and civil rights play right into Democrats' strategy with their much-publicized "Battleground Texas" comeback plan: Energize minority voters and single women who historically have voted at lower levels than social conservatives, while persuading some swing voters such as younger Anglos and suburban women to abandon the GOP.

'Purple' talk too soon?

And Texas Republicans' clumsy PR response to the past week's developments may indicate that years of one-party rule under 14-year governor Rick Perry have left the GOP elites out of shape for the political marathon ahead.

"The debacle is an embarrassment for Texas and a gift-wrapped victory to Team Obama and his left-wing supporters," said Texas Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson, a Republican candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014.

A short-term victory for Texas Democrats: doubtless. But that obscures a more important question: Will these events dramatically hasten the day when deep red Texas is once again a politically competitive state? Or is Democratic talk of a "purple" Texas as soon as 2014 an early-summer fantasy fueled by the euphoria of the past week?

Southern Methodist University political scientist Cal Jillson warns Democrats not to be swept away by "Wendy-mania."

"The events of the past week have certainly amped up the energy in Texas politics, but the changes required to turn Texas purple, let alone blue, will still be a decade or more in coming," Jillson said.

Indeed, a Houston Chronicle analysis of election data from 2000 to 2012 found that demographic shifts toward an ever-increasing minority population will only take Democrats so far. The study, conducted last November, found that if current demographic and voting trends continue, Texas will become a politically competitive state in 2020 and a true toss-up in 2024.

The study assumes no spike in registration or turnout among Texas Latinos or a shift among minority voters either away from or toward the GOP. It also assumes that independent swing voters will not dramatically shift from their current Republican leanings.

"The Democratic comeback in Texas depends on two things: The will to do it and the resources to do it," said Glenn Smith, a longtime Democratic consultant and campaign manager for former Gov. Ann Richards. "Demographic changes are not enough. That is a pipe dream. We have to raise the money and do the hard work."

GOP electoral lock

It will take lots of money and hard work to overcome Texas Republicans' current electoral lock. No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, and GOP-gerrymandered districts make it almost impossible for Democrats to gain control of the Texas Legislature in this decade.

"Democrats should save their champagne for New Year's because there's no reason for them to celebrate," said Vincent Harris, a GOP consultant who directed the social media efforts of Ted Cruz's 2012 U.S. Senate campaign.

Harris said the week's events "made a star out of Wendy Davis," but he added that it also "galvanized the large pro-life community in the state and Texas conservatives like hadn't been done since Ted Cruz's election." He noted that other than Davis and the Castro brothers - San Antonio mayor Julian and San Antonio Congressman Joaquin - "Democrats lack a leader in the state," an essential element in winning statewide elections.

"Democrats' elation will be gone by summer's end," Harris predicted.

Democrats have a very different take. While only the most optimistic are prepared to declare the party ready to take back the governorship or the Legislature in 2014, they say voters have witnessed an ugly spectacle from Texas Republicans, whom they accuse of rigging the rules in Austin and deliberately misinterpreting U.S. Supreme Court rulings in pursuit of an extreme right-wing agenda.

"It's like a 'Lord of the Flies' situation where they are getting completely out of control," said Joaquin Castro, a former state legislator elected to Congress a year ago. "It's important for Democrats to keep pointing out to Texas just how extreme Texas Republicans have gotten. A lot of Texans haven't been paying attention, but it's starting to seep through."

Dewhurst stumbles

Much of the credit for that breakthrough goes to Davis, the Fort Worth senator whose 11-hour filibuster against a draconian abortion measure captured the attention of the nation, thanks to live-streaming Web video, and made her a social media sensation. Her pink Mizuno athletic shoes and her pledge to "stand up for women" contrasted sharply with Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst's aggressive attempts to stop the filibuster.

"Republicans handled the entire affair terribly," said Cindy Rugeley, a political science professor at Texas Tech University. "Whether everything they did was kosher or not, they left an impression that they cheated and that they used their power to silence contrary voices. The Democrats just outsmarted the Republicans, and I think that is a sign the Republicans are taking a lot of things for granted."

Even with their leaders' missteps, Texas Republicans retain a significant organizational advantage over Democrats, particularly in rural counties dominated by their party but increasingly populated by Latino residents. Democrats are hoping to mobilize minority residents to act by stressing GOP attempts to implement a strict photo ID law for Texas voters following the Supreme Court's ruling in the Shelby County voting rights case Tuesday.

"The latest news only reinforces our commitment to expand the electorate and bring more Texans into the democratic process," said Jenn Brown, executive director of Battleground Texas, a new group dedicated to making the state competitive.

Led by former Obama campaign staffers, Battleground Texas is trying to build a political infrastructure that will pave the way toward Democratic competitiveness, first in targeted local contests and then statewide. Brown said the group already has mobilized more than 1,600 voter registration volunteers around the state to counteract "Republicans in Texas (who) are already celebrating the 'demise' of the Voting Rights Act."

Turnaround possible

To organize, Texas Democrats will need campaign cash - another massive Republican advantage. A Houston Chronicle analysis of 2012 congressional campaign contributions showed that most GOP donations remained in Texas, while about three in every four Democratic dollars was exported to other states.

Texas Democrats like Glenn Smith chafe at the state's reputation as an ATM for Barack Obama and national party committees. Smith said he had received more than a dozen fundraising solicitations this week from national Democrats invoking Wendy Davis' name to raise money for non-Texas campaigns.

"It reminds me of a kind of colonial attitude," said Smith. "They extract our resources and then claim we are too poor to help ourselves."

But just because Democrats have a long march toward political parity doesn't mean they can't win a statewide race in the right circumstances.

"Lots of very red states - Georgia, Mississippi, Montana - elect the occasional Democrat," said Jillson, "so it is possible in Texas, too."

Richard S. Dunham is the Washington bureau chief for the Houston Chronicle and Hearst Newspapers, which publishes 15 daily newspapers across the United States. He is also the creator and chief author of the popular political blog ?Texas on the Potomac? on chron.com and mysanantonio.com.

Dunham has offered political analysis on ABC, CNN, CNBC, MSNBC, the PBS News Hour and SiriusXM Satellite Radio. He also has appeared on C-SPAN, the BBC, National Public Radio, ABC Radio, Fox News Channel and more than a dozen radio stations and networks from Brownsville to New Zealand. From 2005 to 2009, he wrote a ?Letter from America? column for the Finnish newspaper Aamulehti in explaining U.S. politics and culture to an international audience.

He also is the creator and host of the reporters? roundtable program that is broadcast as part of the radio series From the National Press Club.

Dunham has covered every American presidential election since 1980. From 1992 to July 2007, he was the national political correspondent for Business Week magazine, covering the White House, Congress and national political trends. He previously spent seven years in the Washington bureau of the Dallas Times Herald as a national political reporter, congressional correspondent and Supreme Court correspondent. During his 13 years at the Dallas Times Herald, he also was a political correspondent in the Austin bureau and a city desk reporter in Dallas.

Dunham also has written for the Philadelphia Inquirer and the Cleveland Plain Dealer, and he has contributed to three books ("The Founding City," Chilton Books, 1976, "The Handbook of Campaign Spending," Congressional Quarterly Press, 1992, and ?The Almanac of the Unelected,? Bernan Press, 2006). He wrote a new foreword to the 60th anniversary edition of his grandfather Barrows Dunham?s classic philosophy book, ?Man against Myth,? which was republished in 2007.

A graduate of Central High School in Philadelphia, Dunham holds B.A. and M.A. degrees in history from the University of Pennsylvania. He resides in Arlington, Virginia, with his wife, Pam Tobey, a native of Silsbee, Texas, who works as a graphic artist at the Washington Post.