Lightweights

THE MATCHUP: Ferguson has been champing at the bit
for a title shot, and there is nothing like a win over the former
champion to clinch it. Meanwhile, dos Anjos, who until just
recently seemed poised to rule the lightweight division for some
time, will doubtless be eager to prove himself against one of the
division’s most dangerous fighters and earn a second crack at
Eddie
Alvarez -- provided Alvarez can keep his belt out of Conor
McGregor’s heavy hands at UFC
205.

Dos Anjos is a pressure fighter through and through. He is powerful
and durable, and he has the best cage-cutting footwork in the
entire division. Few fighters are capable of keeping dos Anjos at
bay for long, and he is supremely comfortable in middle range,
always ready to block and counter with punches or slam his
retreating opponents with vicious kicks as they attempt to
circumnavigate the cage. Dos Anjos’ defense is not stellar, but he
is aware of his opponent’s likely attacks and always ready to
respond in kind. The inherent viciousness of dos Anjos’ style -- he
never takes a shot without giving two back -- makes him a force to
be reckoned with.

Ferguson is no less dangerous. In fact, he has the highest
finishing rate among the top 10 by a significant margin, an
impressive 72 percent, with nine knockouts and nine submissions.
Ferguson’s strength is his ability to take the fight anywhere and
respond aggressively no matter where the fight is taken. He pushes
a ridiculous pace. He can absorb an unreal amount of punishment, as
demonstrated in his fights with Edson
Barboza and Lando
Vannata, and fights with great creativity. At any given moment,
Ferguson is as likely to funk roll out of a takedown attempt as he
is to throw a three-elbow combination or jump on a brabo choke in
the midst of a wild scramble.

Ferguson is fairly reliant, however, on his ability to change
phases at will. Like many great transitional fighters, Ferguson
runs into trouble when he is trapped in a single phase. Forced to
strike with Vannata and Barboza, Ferguson ate shot after shot.
Forced by Danny
Castillo to only grapple off his back, Ferguson was utterly
incapable of getting anything going and squeaked by with an ugly,
controversial decision. When Ferguson is able to shake opponents
with his pressure, pace and unpredictability, he has his way.
Otherwise, he gets hit or stalled out. It is to Ferguson’s credit
that none of the men who have tested him in recent years have been
able to stop him. In the end, his pace has won out. However, dos
Anjos is capable of matching that pace.

THE ODDS: Dos Anjos (-150), Ferguson (+130)

THE PICK: How does Ferguson respond when
pressured? Truth be told, we do not really know. Gleison
Tibau ran him into counters, but that is not really pressure --
not the way dos Anjos does it. Castillo pressed his wrestling
advantage but was either unwilling or unable to do anything with
his top control. Dos Anjos is the most dangerous, well-rounded
fighter Ferguson will have ever faced. Chances are he remains the
most well-rounded fighter in the entire division. Ferguson is so
wild and so tough that he will likely put dos Anjos in a few tough
spots, and if the Alvarez result is any kind of omen, the Brazilian
may not respond well. Barring a sudden end to the fight, however,
dos Anjos’ style is more reliable, and I have my doubts about
whether or not Ferguson can maintain his manic pace for more than
three rounds. The pick is dos Anjos by fifth-round TKO.