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1) Henry flew out to Seattle. That is the sort of thing that happens before the manager is fired.
2) Henry also talked about the Red Sox future plans. He made clear that the postseason rules change means the Red Sox can't be content with the Wild Card, but that they have to focus on building a core that can win the division over the Yankees and Orioles.

Change is coming, said Henry, and it’s coming quickly.

“Next year is going to be about one thing: winning the AL East in 2013 and setting the stage for the next few years,” he said. “We used to be satisfied with making the playoffs, but with the addition of a second wild card forcing a one-game playoff, we need to set a goal now annually to win the division.

“Given where we are right now, it’s a tall order to win the division next year. But we have to do everything we can to contend without repeating errors of the past — something we are determined to avoid. We strayed from our core philosophy over the past few years and have paid a terrible price for that.”

they have to focus on building a core that can win the division over the Yankees and Orioles.

I've read this sentence about five times and I still can't quite believe it's real. I keep waiting for someone to unplug me from the matrix. (but if someone is actually planning to unplug me, please don't.)

“Next year is going to be about one thing: winning the AL East in 2013 and setting the stage for the next few years,” he said. “We used to be satisfied with making the playoffs, but with the addition of a second wild card forcing a one-game playoff, we need to set a goal now annually to win the division.

“Given where we are right now, it’s a tall order to win the division next year. But we have to do everything we can to contend without repeating errors of the past — something we are determined to avoid. We strayed from our core philosophy over the past few years and have paid a terrible price for that.”

Nothing that going out and buying the best pitcher and batter off the market can't solve!! ####, Sox arn't sniffing .500 next year. This is all mouth-service for the hoi polloi.

LF: Non-existant
CF: Who knows what we'll get
RF: Needs to be re-signed and platooned
3B: Has more red flags than a hurricane warning
SS: Relatively passable, but the least odious 3 day old fish still stinks
2B: A real player!
1B: Non-existant
C: See SS.
DH: 1,000 years old, and needs to be re-signed

SPs: Didn't have a single one post an OPS+ over 100. Regardless, really only have 3. (4, forgot..gnarf...Lackey)

Long man: Strangled the manager and awaits trial.
MR: a few guys that actually got good results
SU: Both broke.
CL: Good when not broke.

The Sox are not looking for 2013. Their middle of the order and top-of-the-rotation players are mediocre. You don't win divisions with the players they will be penciling into the lineup card next year. To get players like Adrian Gonzalez they would need to trade away their best farm hands or spend a ton of money in the free agent market. Before doing that, however, those types of players would need to be available in the first place.

I think pessimism for 2013 is warranted, but why are we examining the roster today as if it is the roster that will be there next opening day? And Dale, what about Ellsbury? Also, I will repeat (annoyingly) that there are always opportunities to add talent using money in MLB.

Their middle of the order and top-of-the-rotation players are mediocre. You don't win divisions with the players they will be penciling into the lineup card next year.

I expect that Lester, Buchholz, Ortiz, Pedroia, and Ellsbury will all project as better than "mediocre". They'll also have solid All-Star upside. I'll be both surprised and disappointed if the Red Sox don't add at least one more All-Star type to supplement them.

With "competing", I mean, an 85-win team in the current set-up is most likely going to be competitive for one of the play-in spots. I don't expect the Sox to be standing atop the division in October, absent a whole ton of good fortune, but I do expect the 2013 Red Sox to play meaningful games in September.

I expect that Lester, Buchholz, Ortiz, Pedroia, and Ellsbury will all project as better than "mediocre". They'll also have solid All-Star upside.

The problem is that that's basically the core, at this point, and I don't think you can expect to contend for the division with that core. (Which I realize you agree with per the rest of your post 16, but I'm just reiterating the point.) You can win 85 games if things break right. But more likely you'll be mediocre.

I mean, I love Ellsbury, but he's not someone you can really count on to turn in an All Star season right now - despite the fact that he's obviously capable of it and so it wouldn't shock anyone. But he went through his theoretical peak seasons of 26-28 with two lost years in three.

Ross, Salty, even Middlebrooks -- these are all nice pieces to championship teams, but they're not core players.

Done MCOA. Been looking for some good bets for next year. Standard $20 b-ref?

Done.

The problem is that that's basically the core, at this point, and I don't think you can expect to contend for the division with that core. (Which I realize you agree with per the rest of your post 16, but I'm just reiterating the point.) You can win 85 games if things break right. But more likely you'll be mediocre.

Likewise not disagreeing with your point, but I think those five guys can comprise, say, 5/7 of a competitive core. The Sox just need to add more talent. (And do so without significantly compromising the 2015 roster, but I don't think that's a particularly impossible task.)

“Given where we are right now, it’s a tall order to win the division next year. But we have to do everything we can to contend without repeating errors of the past — something we are determined to avoid. We strayed from our core philosophy over the past few years and have paid a terrible price for that.”

“Given where we are right now, it’s a tall order to win the division next year. But we have to do everything we can to contend without repeating errors of the past — something we are determined to avoid. We strayed from our core philosophy over the past few years and have paid a terrible price for that.”

Yeah. Liverpool were never an option - good friend is a United fan who said I could pick any team other than LFC, plus I wasn't passing up the chance to root against FSG - but the parallels between the long-term situation of LFC and the Sox are pretty unpleasant.

On the other hand, there's a narrative of the Red Sox 2012 season that looks rather like the worst-case scenario for Tottenham 2012-2013. A highly talented team has a very good season that comes up just short, they fire the manager who presided over the most successful years of the club's recent history and bring in an unexpected, high-risk, high-upside hire, and the club starts the new season with a run of horribly painful losses, the manager loses the clubhouse (if he ever had it), and they never sniff competition.

On the other hand, there's a narrative of the Red Sox 2012 season that looks rather like the worst-case scenario for Tottenham 2012-2013. A highly talented team has a very good season that comes up just short, they fire the manager who presided over the most successful years of the club's recent history and bring in an unexpected, high-risk, high-upside hire, and the club starts the season with a run of horribly painful losses, the manager loses the clubhouse (if he ever had it), and they never sniff competition.

And speaking of insane predictions, regarding my statement that the Sox could challenge certain losing streaks: The Sox should activate Ortiz for emegency PH duty. It's not like he would be taking up a valuable roster spot.

And speaking of insane predictions, regarding my statement that the Sox could challenge certain losing streaks: The Sox should activate Ortiz for emegency PH duty. It's not like he would be taking up a valuable roster spot.

There's a non-crazy case to be made that losing is better for the Red Sox right now than winning. They've steamrolled into the bottom 10 in baseball, and are now a game and a half "ahead" of the Mets for a protected draft pick in 2013. There may be other problematic knock-on effects of losing. Will ownership spend less money in the future if no one watches or attends the games now? Will the players check out even further in ways that could affect 2013 and beyond? So I don't mean to say it's simple. But that protected draft pick is valuable enough that I don't think it makes any sense to risk further injury to a core player for 2013 in order to slightly increase chances at wins today.

No. Manny was indeed a "sure thing" at that price, but the Sox of that era shook the bargain table and got a very unexpected bounty. If the more recent vintages of the Sox had shopped in the bargain section of free agency with their cash reserves the last few years, the fanbase would have (legitimately) gone crazy on them. The fact that they weren't paying 2004 Ortiz $20 million doesn't change the fact that he produced like a $20 million player for them. They were replacing his production, and it would be very expensive.

Is this just corporate-speak? They pursued the same philosophy, as near as I can tell, as they did from 2003-2007. They just made bets on the wrong players.

Well, I assume this is partly just corporate speak, but I do think that the 2012 offseason looks distinctly anti-saber, based as it was on trading young position players with all-star upside for relief pitchers.

Dale, I know he's not under contract next year, but he is as close as can be, IMO. Could you imagine the hue and cry if he tweaks his knee "legging" out a double in a meaningless game?

I mean EMERGENCY duty. Like the Sox are knocking on 21 losses in a row with a man in scoring position of the ninth inning of a tie game. I think Ortiz striding to the plate like Kirk Gibson would be awesome.*

*In a sick, sick Bizarro way... since Gibson was trying to win a World Series game, and Papi would be trying to prevent the Red Sox from being associated with the 1988 Baltimore Orioles.

I love the spin on the Reddick trade. Reddick had a ZIPS projection to hit 238/289/391 in 2012 at age 25.

The Red Sox did not get out-sabered by trading Reddick. They got out-evaluated. Probably they relied too much on saber projections. This was a trade where their own scouts either failed to see Reddick's ability or saw Reddick's ability but weren't heard within the organization.

When the Sox say they need to get back to the old way of doing business, I take it to mean they need to go back to being a rich but bargain-hunting player development machine.

reddick did about what he did in the minors. it's just more valauble in the place like oakland.

i get why a boston in fenway park a low obp slugger may not have as much appeal. if things had broken differently in boston the chatter on reddick wouldn't be as great.

and the kid still doesn't get on base. he could see his average plummet and be out of the league in 3 years unless he's one of the few that can keep hitting for power while not really controlling the strike zone

and the kid still doesn't get on base. he could see his average plummet and be out of the league in 3 years unless he's one of the few that can keep hitting for power while not really controlling the strike zone

Yep. He'll either adjust and be Jayson Werth or he'll be hanging on to the last spot on the bench in 3 years if his average slips. The one advantage he has is he is an exceptional defender. He probably won't win a gold glove because, hey, who the hell is Josh Reddick, but he certainly deserves one.

The new TV deals could drive the average value of WAR up to $6M. If that happens you'd like to own some talent on long term contracts at current prices so you don't have to pay $30m/year+ for stars in the free agent market. Contracts like, oh, like AGons, maybe even Crawfords...

Defense aside (and bWAR agrees with Shooty), Reddick in the 2nd half: 247/283/441 -- 50 points more ISO but otherwise in line with he pre-season ZiPS -- and he's gone from 1 BB per 9-10 PA to 1 BB per 20 PA and the K-rate has gone up so I'm guessing they've found a hole. Still a good overall season (125 OPS+) and the combo of big ISO and good defense is enough reason to keep playing him.

I love the spin on the Reddick trade. Reddick had a ZIPS projection to hit 238/289/391 in 2012 at age 25.

That's a fair point. I just went back and checked two sources: the Sox Therapy thread on the deal, and Joe Sheehan's newsletter (checked because it's easily searchable). The general consensus in the Sox Therapy thread, headed by MCOA, as well as the analysis by Sheehan, thought the Sox had made a good deal.

The thing is, though, that the Red Sox were still getting back as the centerpiece of the deal Andrew Bailey, who was good on a per innings basis but was missing a lot of those "innings." Trading an OF even of Reddick's pre-2012 caliber -- 24 years old and holding his own and at the age when improvement is certainly not atypical -- for an oft-injured reliever is foolhardy, especially when you have two good outfielders if lucky (Ellsbury and Crawford) plus Cody Ross.

Just to clarify what the trade was. From Bailey's b-r page:

December 28, 2011: Traded by the Oakland Athletics with Ryan Sweeney to the Boston Red Sox for Miles Head (minors), Raul Alcantara (minors) and Josh Reddick.

Defense aside (and bWAR agrees with Shooty), Reddick in the 2nd half: 247/283/441 -- 50 points more ISO but otherwise in line with he pre-season ZiPS -- and he's gone from 1 BB per 9-10 PA to 1 BB per 20 PA and the K-rate has gone up so I'm guessing they've found a hole.

Your comment is not unreasonable, but at the same time we have to remember that the overall numbers are a much better gauge than the various peaks and valleys, the order of which can simply be completely random. Joe Sheehan fell into a similar trap during the offseason when commenting on the Reddick deal, because Reddick did something similar to this last year and the thought was that opposing pitchers had found a hole -- but if so, why didn't they continue to exploit it at the beginning of this year?

Quoting now from Sheehan's trade analysis at the time:

The most famous player in the return for Bailey is Josh Reddick, who leaves me cold. Reddick is 25 and has a .293 OBP above Double-A. That's not a player or a prospect. Now, he was a bit better than that subbing for J.D. Drew this year -- .280/.327/.457 -- but it featured a 50/18 K/UIBB, and was really a hot streak in part-time play (.393/.429/.672 in 70 PA) followed by getting exposed (.244/.293/.389 in 208 PA after the All-Star break) once the Sox started playing him more. He's not a bad corner outfielder, and might work out in the heavy half of a platoon role through his peak as a .250/.315/.435 guy -- more or less league average -- with +5 defense. Am I selling him hard enough?

And just to finish up with Sheehan's overall assessment:

The deal makes plenty of sense for the Red Sox, who get an excellent reliever in exchange for nothing they'll miss in the next couple of years, and maybe ever. You draft, sign and develop so you can replace your own players cheaply, and packaging three guys for what you need is one way to do that.

Ray - I'm surprised the only mention of Sweeney in [45] came in your caveat. Where does he fit into "two good outfielders if lucky plus Cody Ross"? My take on the Reddick deal was that Sweeney was the centerpiece and Bailey was gravy. Sweeney was an average quality overall RF at the time of the trade. I figured if Bailey pitched any meaningful innings in 2012 it'd be a bonus. I took the Sox to be trading possible future ceiling for definite current certainty.

Your comment is not unreasonable, but at the same time we have to remember that the overall numbers are a much better gauge than the various peaks and valleys, the order of which can simply be completely random

But the "overall numbers" go back more than a year. He was projected to hit badly based on past performance. The part that looks flukey is the early season, not the recent performance in which he's hit as projected (with more power). Reddick's ZiPS RoS stands at 242/298/442 which is basically exactly what he's hit in the 2nd half.

So, if you want, it's the Red Sox fans who need reminding about the importance of "overall numbers." They freaked out based on Reddick's hot first half and haven't come to the overall realization that it's more likely they traded Rick Ankiel (244/306/422) the hitter.

(The point about Ks and BBs is also to show that it's not a BABIP drop. His BABIP in the 2nd half has been 299, actually a bit higher than in the first half.

I still say that if you look at overall numbers rather than "flukey parts of the season," you will be far better off in term of gauging a player's talent level. That doesn't mean that flukey seasons don't exist - of course they do - but it does mean that the neat and tidy narratives of "he had a hot start and then the pitchers figured him out" do, in my view, rarely align with what is actually going on.

I *will* say that he's human. He got the yips last year, he admitted the A's showing confidence in him really improved his game. I'll bet there are tons of people like that in sports, even at the ML level. His 'clutch' numbers this year arn't so hot...or they wern't, I haven't looked at them lately. I'm sure the Sox have improved those quite a bit.

The thing is, though, that the Red Sox were still getting back as the centerpiece of the deal Andrew Bailey, who was good on a per innings basis but was missing a lot of those "innings." Trading an OF even of Reddick's pre-2012 caliber -- 24 years old and holding his own and at the age when improvement is certainly not atypical -- for an oft-injured reliever is foolhardy, especially when you have two good outfielders if lucky (Ellsbury and Crawford) plus Cody Ross.

I think at the time I thought Reddick had a chance to be Ryan Sweeney - who he was traded for. I did think trading for Bailey and relying on him as your closer was pretty silly though and IIRC I thought the Lowrie deal was a rip off for Boston.

I like Reddick okay I guess, but considering what Chicago got for Santos - which many didn't think was even that great a haul - this seems pretty underwhelming. Reddick's upside seems like "just a guy" which I guess is an upgrade for Oakland, but what's the point?

Wow, I forgot about Santos.

My post in #20:

More than one team that looked good on paper fell completely flat in practice.

But in #30...

Oakland could be in the Central and they still wouldn't be much of a contender.

1) Henry flew out to Seattle. That is the sort of thing that happens before the manager is fired.

PeteAbe actually commented on this:

Read in several places that John Henry "flew across the country" to Seattle on Monday to see his team. Guess that sounded better. He was actually on the West Coast all week and was in Vancouver before he went to Seattle.

They could still fire him, but ultimately it simply appears to be bad reporting by the Herald. Again.

The most famous player in the return for Bailey is Josh Reddick, who leaves me cold. Reddick is 25 and has a .293 OBP above Double-A. That's not a player or a prospect.

To make this statement about the 25 year old Reddick, Sheehan had to include his 22 year season not just in AAA but also his 22 year age Major League PAs. Here is Reddick's OBP by age at those levels with PAs for each.

If we ignore his age 22 stats as the least relevant due to age/sample size, we find he averaged around a .307 ages 23/24 (over an 8x larger sample). And his combined age 24 OBP (the most relevant sample to predicting his age 25 performance) was almost .330.

Now none of this says Josh is an unrecognized high OBP player, in fact it supports the idea it will be a weakness. But not nearly as weak Sheehan's analysis would have you think, it seems as if he already disliked Reddick as a prospect, and (probably unconsciously) cherry picked data to support his pre-existing conclusion.

Am I the only person who thought this article was about the Mariners? Not that I minded reading the thread.

Me three.

Fourthed.

I actually envisioned an article detailing the plans of the Yakuza hit squad sent from Edo to avenge the honor of the distant owners and separating Jack Z's head from shoulders as payment for the disgrace of losing, followed by the ritual suicide of the hit squad. Or something like that.