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Are You The One

ARE YOU THE ONE? . . If your perfect match was standing right in front of you, would you even know it? In the most ambitious dating experiment ever attempted, that question will be answered as contestants compete in a series of challenges designed to test the intelligence of their heart. "Are You The One" begins by selecting 10 beautiful single women from across the US. Using the most extensive matchmaking process ever seen, 10 men will be found and perfectly matched for these women. But the results aren't revealed to them. Now all 20 people are living together in Hawaii where they share one objective: Find their PERFECT MATCH. Each week, the group will follow their hearts and lock in a choice of who they think is their PERFECT MATCH. If all 20 people find their perfect match within 10 tries, they'll all split $1 MILLION! Trailer: . Premier Sneak Peek: .

[QUOTE=melm3;391310]Seems like an easy way to get $50,000. I'll bet only 2/10 couples will actually be in a relationship after the show.[/QUOTE]
Easy? Are you kidding?
The number of possible combinations is 10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2. That comes out to 3,628,800 combinations.
So clearly with sheer luck the cast has no chance at the prize. The only hope is that they get a lot of help along the way as well as extremely good instincts to narrow down those odds.
Very unlikely in my opinion the cast can win the prize with just one "truth booth" per episode and finding out how many combinations (but not which ones) are right each "matchup".
But even if they do somehow win, the credits say the prize is a 30 year annuity. What that means is that the $50,000 each wins is paid out over 30 years, and because of inflation is probably worth only half of the advertised amount.

CW had a similar show to this last summer called "Perfect Score" hosted by the beautiful Arielle Kebbel.
2 women would attempt to find their most compatible match among 10 men (or 2 men selecting from 10 women). Each person out of the 10 would have a prize value for each of the 2 contestants (sometimes the same value for each) based on the results of a compatibility test. Prizes ranged from $50,000 to $1. The person who selected the more compatible person wins the prize and the date.
While on average the contestants did better than sheer luck based on what little they could find out about the people during a 30 minute show, there were certain episodes where they did even worse than luck would dictate.
They did give out plenty of $50,000, $40,000, and $30,000 prizes (there was a 51% chance of giving away one of these prizes based on luck) but there was 1 episode where both chose one of their 3 least compatible matches (which there was only a 9% chance of happening by luck) which resulted in a $500 prize.

The credits did say they could choose either a 30 year annuity or an equivalent lump sum payment. I assume most people would choose the latter since I've never heard of a $50,000 prize being paid out over 30 years before!

I was mainly paying attention to the credits because I was wondering if there'd be any clues as to who was actually doing the matchmaking.
What showed up in the credits was Pyschotherapist Dr. Erin Foster and Matchmakers Natasha Shpiner and Angelica Street. First of those women has a website here where she lists MTV:
[url=http://www.drerinfoster.com/speaking.html]Erin Foster[/url]
I assume these 3 were the ones actually making the decisions.

Last night was good. I hope John and Simone are a match, and I think Jacy and Dre would be cute. John is being an opportunist though. He knows women are looking at him now, so he's spreading his wings. Can't fault him for that but his approach to Simone wasn't cool.
So far, I think John/Simone, Jacy/Dre were the match ups from last week. And Shanley/Adam were one of the matches from this week.

[QUOTE=mark3210;391665]Easy? Are you kidding?
The number of possible combinations is 10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2. That comes out to 3,628,800 combinations.
So clearly with sheer luck the cast has no chance at the prize. The only hope is that they get a lot of help along the way as well as extremely good instincts to narrow down those odds.
Very unlikely in my opinion the cast can win the prize with just one "truth booth" per episode and finding out how many combinations (but not which ones) are right each "matchup".
But even if they do somehow win, the credits say the prize is a 30 year annuity. What that means is that the $50,000 each wins is paid out over 30 years, and because of inflation is probably worth only half of the advertised amount.[/QUOTE]
There is a 190 combinations. Math is off. Formula is n! divided by (n-r)! times (r!). Still very hard to do. With 5 couples confirmed matches the odds are still 45 to 1 without the lights.

Odds with confirmed matches and without configuring the chances of them figuring it out by the lights:
If no matches confirmed 190 to 1
With 1 confirmed matches 153 to 1
With 2 confirmed matches 120 to 1
With 3 confirmed matches 91 to 1
With 4 confirmed matches 66 to 1
With 5 confirmed matches 45 to 1
With 6 confirmed matched 28 to 1
With 7 confirmed matches 15 to 1
8 or greater with the lights show they would win no matter what. I would say that once they get 2 confirmed matches the show gets way easier. My guess 4 or 5 matches you have a great chance at winning (They already used up 2 chances).

Well it COULD be easier if they were thought better strategically. If people thought strictly about the money and coupling up later.. they should've voted on the 2 couples that they originally thought were original matches the first episode. Make those 2 pair up again while everyone else switches up partners.
And when it comes to challenges the group should vote on who they want to go into the truth booth before the challenge. And then make sure that couple wins (and then everyone else fights for 2nd) and then vote in the pair they threw the challenge for to CONFIRM that they are a match instead of sending random couples that aren't matches. If they'd just cut the fat things would come together much quicker.

[QUOTE=timster3;391853]Well it COULD be easier if they were thought better strategically. If people thought strictly about the money and coupling up later.. they should've voted on the 2 couples that they originally thought were original matches the first episode. Make those 2 pair up again while everyone else switches up partners.
And when it comes to challenges the group should vote on who they want to go into the truth booth before the challenge. And then make sure that couple wins (and then everyone else fights for 2nd) and then vote in the pair they threw the challenge for to CONFIRM that they are a match instead of sending random couples that aren't matches. If they'd just cut the fat things would come together much quicker.[/QUOTE]
Right, these people have no strategy. It's frustrating.

[QUOTE=Youssarian;391867]Right, these people have no strategy. It's frustrating.[/QUOTE]
Yeah. Like someone said "i'm here for love" okay great, you can still have fun in the house, and possibly date someone outside of the show. But why is it so hard for you to try to find your match? It's not like you HAVE to date that person that you're matched to. You can still do the same thing you're doing in the house but win a big cash prize at the end of it.
I do like the show a lot though, it's a real social experiment and like nothing i've ever seen before. But there is a flaw in my opinion. The tests they take are attributes about character and personality. So technically they're supposed to match someone who they're attracted to personally/emotionally. But if someone is matched with someone they find physically unattractive they'll never give that person a shot and those 2 will never end up thinking that they're a match which could ruin it for everyone. I won't be shocked if a very suprising match happens when it's all revealed and it shows 2 people no one expected to be together.

The challenge to go to the truth booth and on a date should not be there. It adds nothing to the show. There should only be 16 cast members, because 5 or 6 people almost never appear on the show. Also you realize the three most wanted guys in the house already had sex with a girl. Adam is the best looking guy in the house, but the only reason girls want John or Chris T is they had sex.
The show proves that girls are competitive and want guys who have an active sex life.

[QUOTE=asdasd9999;391821]There is a 190 combinations. Math is off. Formula is n! divided by (n-r)! times (r!). Still very hard to do. With 5 couples confirmed matches the odds are still 45 to 1 without the lights.[/QUOTE]
I think your math is also a bit off. Isn't the number of possible combinations actually 100? I understand how you got the 190, but that's assuming any combination of two people regardless of gender. And though it would be awesome for there to be a gay couple in the house, there doesn't seem to be any signs of the show heading in that direction so far.

[QUOTE=jellybean89;391925]I think your math is also a bit off. Isn't the number of possible combinations actually 100? I understand how you got the 190, but that's assuming any combination of two people regardless of gender. And though it would be awesome for there to be a gay couple in the house, there doesn't seem to be any signs of the show heading in that direction so far.[/QUOTE]
Right, I feel like they should've thrown in some LGBT people in the house to shake things up. Although, I guess they would automatically know that they're a match.

I could see it working if maybe a couple of the cast members were bi. That way, the matches would be less obvious. I agree though, the show is definitely missing some LGBT people. I seriously wish one of these dating shows would dare to go that route.

[QUOTE=TheKorean;391938]Well Dre is a stripper at a gay club in Atlanta called Swinging Richards.[/QUOTE]
Well, straight people can still strip at gay clubs. Oh well. What if the entire cast was bi? Then that would REALLY put a wrench in things.

[QUOTE=Youssarian;391957]Well, straight people can still strip at gay clubs. Oh well. What if the entire cast was bi? Then that would REALLY put a wrench in things.[/QUOTE]
Steven Hill/Vegas1 would like a word with you.

[QUOTE=asdasd9999;391821]There is a 190 combinations. Math is off. Formula is n! divided by (n-r)! times (r!). Still very hard to do. With 5 couples confirmed matches the odds are still 45 to 1 without the lights.[/QUOTE]
Your math is bogus. Just getting the first 3 pairs right is 1 chance in 720.
Before the truth booth was in play, the first person would have a 1 in 10 chance, and if they select right the second person has a 1 in 9 chance, and if they select right the third person has a 1 in 8 chance, etc. That's 10! combinations.
Now with 2 couples confirmed to NOT be matches by the truth booth it becomes something like 1 in 9x8x8x7x6x5x4x3x2. Still nearly 3 million combinations. Even though the lights told them they have 4 couples right this time, the odds of correctly identifying which 4 are right would be 1 in (4/10) x (3/9) x (2/8) x (1/7) = 1 in 210.
Although 4 out of 10 is a good start I'd be shocked if they can somehow overcome these odds. Not to mention they already spoiled from the beginning that the game lasts at least until Day 41, which implies they used most if not all 10 of their chances.

For anyone who finds this math difficult to follow, you should always start small and work your way up.
If there are 2 guys and 2 girls we can pair up 2 ways. That's 2! or 2x1.
If there are 3 guys and 3 girls we can pair up 6 ways. That's 3! or 3x2x1.
If anyone wants to challenge me and claim there are less than 6 ways to pair up 3 couples, have at it!
Eventually we work our way up to the scenario on the show which is 10 guys and 10 girls. That's 10! or 10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1.

I've been thinking about what the best possible strategy would be given there's a heavy amount of math involved.
I think the best strategy (at least from a mathematical perspective) is to use the truth booth to identify correct matches from the episodes they got the most lights (which right now is Episode 2), while using the matchup to try to identify all 10 matches before trying to put them together. This means that EVERYONE should choose NEW partners for the matchup EVERY WEEK until they see all 10 lights.
If they follow this strategy (I don't expect them to) they could (hopefully) see all 10 lights by the 4th or 5th episode and then they can eliminate 50 to 60 percent of the possibilities. All of the sudden everyone will be able to say "My match is one of 4 or 5 people" rather than "My match is one of 9 or 10".
If they don't follow this strategy they're almost certainly going to get lost in a sea of millions of combinations.