Celebrity divorce: Predictors of which couples are going to split

Photo credit: George Pimentel, Getty ImagesIs there a reliable formula for predicting the outcomes of celebrity
marriages? Authors and science writers John Tierney and Garth Sundem
believe there is, and in a recent article for the New York Times, Tierney argues they’ve come up with firm evidence in support of the formula.

Back in 2006, authors and science writers Tierney and Sundem came up
with an equation that predicted the chances of a celebrity marriage
enduring. (That equation was also published in the NYTimes.)

Then, the twosome argued that celeb marriages were subject to specific
‘make-it-or-break-it’ variables. Those variables included the fame
levels of both partners, age, courtship length, marital history and the
“sex symbol factor", which was determined by "looking at the woman’s
first five Google hits and counting how many show her in skimpy attire,
or no attire.”

While the connection between skimpy attire and a gal’s level of
commitment to monogamy has yet to be firmly established, there are
theories. One theory: the greater the 'sex symbol factor' a starlet has,
the less likely it is that she’s going to stand by her man, primarily
because her penchant for showing her stuff indicates a narcissistic
streak.

At the time, Tierney and Sundem predicted doom for the unions of Britney
Spears and Kevin Federline, Ashton and Demi, Pamela Anderson and Kid
Rock, Will Smith and Jada Pinkett and Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes (three
out of five couples have officially split).

After five years, Tierney and Sundem are offering a tweak to their
theory. Now they argue that it isn’t just the level of fame a couple
possesses together or separately that influences their chances of making
it to their 20th anniversary—it’s the type of fame that matters. And most importantly, it’s the quality of the wife’s fame that matters the most.

The pair's conclusion: happy marriages and a heavy tabloid presence do
not go hand in hand. The more legit press you have, the better it is for
your marriage it seems.

Sundem compared the number of times the female spouse is mentioned in the tabloid the National Enquirer versus mentions in the NYTimes.

“Sure, Katie Holmes had about 160 Enquirer hits, but she had more than
twice as many NYT hits. A high NYT/ENQ ratio also explains why Chelsea
Clinton and Kate Middleton have better chances than the Kardashian
sisters,” said Sundem.