OSCE says Ukraine’s democracy is ‘in reverse’

International observers have criticised elections in Ukraine that appear likely to strengthen the position of the ruling party.

Monitors sent by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) highlighted the jailing of the most prominent opposition leader, Yulia Tymoshenko, who was given a seven-year prison sentence in October 2011. “One should not have to visit a prison to hear from leading political figures in the country,” said Walburga Habsburg Douglas of the OSCE, after visiting Tymoshenko.

The OSCE said that “democratic progress appears to have reversed in Ukraine”. It found that, while election day was “calm and peaceful overall”, the playing field had been tilted against the opposition, “the result, primarily, of the abuse of administrative resources, as well as a lack of transparency in campaign and party financing and of balanced media coverage”.

“The lack of appropriate responses by the authorities to the various electoral violations has led to a climate of impunity,” said Audrey Glover, the head of the OSCE’s long-term observer mission.

Andreas Gross, the head of the delegation sent by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), pointed to the role of money in undermining the election, saying that “the ‘oligarchisation’ of the whole process meant that citizens lost their ownership of the election, as well as their trust in it”.

The European Parliament also sent a 15-strong delegation to monitor the last days of the election. Its preliminary comments echoed the OSCE’s concerns. However, a more positive assessment was made by Socialist members of the delegation. The group’s leader in the European Parliament, Hannes Swoboda, said that “the conduct of Ukraine’s parliamentary elections can be considered as legitimate and orderly, exceeding most critics’ expectations. While various concerns were raised during the campaign, these should not discredit the outcome of the elections.”

Tymoshenko’s strong showing

Despite the flaws, the principal opposition group – a coalition between Tymoshenko’s party, Fatherland, and the Front for Change led by Arseny Yatsenyuk – secured a larger share of the popular vote that pre-election opinion polls had suggested. Months of polls showed it languishing at around 15%, roughly half the figure that Tymoshenko gained in elections in 2007. In the event, preliminary figures, based on 74% of votes, suggest that the coalition won the support of 23.2% of the electorate. Speaking before the election, Dominique Arel of the University of Ottawa had indicated that Tymoshenko’s support has historically been higher on election day than in polls.

The full composition of the parliament will not be known until tomorrow, at the earliest, and precise forecasts are complicated by the mixed electoral system. Half of the 450 seats in the Verkhovna Rada go to the winners of direct elections in first-past-the-past constituencies.

However, it is already clear that the ruling party, President Viktor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions (PRU), has won a clear victory both in the popular and direct elections. The question is how great the margin of victory will be.

It gained 33.1% of the popular vote, well above the 25% suggested by opinion polls. Preliminary figures show that it won roughly half the directly elected constituencies. That suggests that it may add ten or more members to its parliamentary delegation, which currently stands at 195.

That would place it in a very strong position to secure a majority. The Communist Party, which came third and rose from around 10% in polls to 14.4% on election day, has traditionally allied itself with the PRU. Experience suggests that many of the directly elected independent members of parliament will also back the strongest party.

The strength of the opposition will depend on the post-election positions adopted by the two other parties that cleared the 5% threshold to enter parliament.

The larger of the two is Udar (Punch), a new party created by a world boxing champion, Vitaly Klichko, which gained 13.2% of the vote. But the bigger surprise was the strong showing of nationalists in western Ukraine. Their party, Svoboda, won 9.1% of the vote, rather than the roughly 5% that polls had suggested.

The unexpectedly good performance of the Communists and of Svoboda has somewhat reduced the importance of Klichko, who had been seen before the election as a potentially major force. Klichko has not indicated whether he will align himself with the Fatherland-Front for Change coalition.

Svoboda’s leader, Ole Tyahnybok, has said that he will work with other opposition leaders.