AFL Preview: Season 2013

As we enter the new AFL season the competition seems tighter than ever, but logic suggests there are a number of teams that are clearly off the pace for 2013.

Could we have a repeat of last year's grand final? Perhaps round three of a great recent rivalry between east and west? Or could two surprise teams make it to the last Saturday in September? Only time will tell.

In year one of free agency some clubs have overhauled their lists in hope of a rapid rise up the ladder, while others feel only one or two changes will make the difference.

Drama is guaranteed on and off the field, particularly at Essendon, which has the shadow of an AFL/ASADA investigation hanging over the club and perhaps for the entire season.

Heading into the opening weekend, ABC Grandstand runs its eye over all 18 sides.

Stellar years from on-baller Patrick Dangerfield, ruckman Sam Jacobs and forward Taylor Walker set up a 17-5 record, second place on the ladder and a home qualifying final which had Adelaide fans dreaming of a third flag at West Lakes.

However a stinging loss to the Sydney Swans sent the Crows to the wrong side of the draw and a preliminary final loss against Hawthorn.

In the post-season Kurt Tippett ended up at Sydney amid an AFL investigation into his contract that led to a big fine and suspensions for three club executives.

Things got worse when assistant coach Dean Bailey was suspended for 16 rounds following the tanking investigation at Bailey's former club Melbourne.

Adelaide, led by admired coach Brenton Sanderson, has the talent to go deep into September.

But to do so Walker must equal or surpass last year's 63-goal haul; big man Josh Jenkins must provide a tall marking option to replace Tippett and give Jacobs a spell in the ruck; and players like Bernie Vince must get back to their best.

The key is whether Adelaide overcomes off-field problems to forge a finals-ready unit, or whether Sanderson's Crows suffer from the "second-year blues".

The team has built on this momentum with an undefeated preseason, capped by a 40-point win over Carlton to take the club's first piece of silverware since the 2003 flag.

Brent Moloney - a free agency signing from the Demons - looks like he will galvanise the Lions' midfield and win some of the hard ball and clearances the team needs to compete.

The Lions have some great young talent, with Dayne Zorko, Daniel Rich and Josh Green set for further improvement, and hope rising that the rejuvenated Patrick Karnezis and Aaron Cornelius can offer some marking options other than Jonathan Brown up forward.

The big query is the return from injury of ruckman Matthew Leuenberger - he is capable of dominating stoppages and gives a mobile option in the middle, but he has already had back and calf soreness in the preseason, raising doubts about his reliability.

Brisbane won't challenge for a flag in 2013 but, if the newer Lions can continue to build momentum, the team will be a lot tougher to beat regardless of the opposition.

The forward line is a problem area, with Jarrad Waite and Andrew Walker requiring more consistency to provide help for star goal sneaks Jeff Garlett and Eddie Betts.

Carlton tried to lure Travis Cloke from the Magpies to fill out the front six, but in the end the club promoted from the inside, with Levi Casboult coming off the rookie list.

The Judd window of opportunity is slowly closing - the captain has handed over the reins to Marc Murphy to focus on his own game. He turns 30 this September, and will be keen to start a serious finals charge sooner rather than later.

Judd, Murphy and the increasingly influential former Demon Brock McLean remain vital to the Blues' chances along with utility Bryce Gibbs, who should shift to an on-ball role.

A preseason cup final is a good start to the Malthouse era, but the pressure will be on to improve at least four spots - for a home final - on last year's 10th-place finish.

Nathan Buckley's first year as coach following the departure of Mick Malthouse, question marks over Travis Cloke's future, a long injury list and the tragic death of former Magpie John McCarthy made for a difficult year for the club, ending in a preliminary final loss to Sydney.

Buckley will gain confidence in his second season, but already there have been whispers about a strained relationship between the club and star Dane Swan. The Magpies will be hoping that the rumours don't go any further than that.

Collingwood reacted to a perceived lack of speed and attacking penetration by trading for Carlton's Jordan Russell, Hawthorn's Clinton Young and West Coast's Quinten Lynch, the latter replacing the Melbourne-bound Chris Dawes and providing another ruck option.

If Dayne Beams can maintain his form after last year's breakout season, and Luke Ball can come back to near his best, then the Pies' midfield will be a match for anyone.

But the recovery time for Dale Thomas, whose hamstring problems required surgery before Christmas, is a major concern. He remains crucial to the club's chances.

That seems like a lifetime ago, before the club revealed it had called in the AFL over questions about the club's use of supplements for players and their relationship with controversial sports scientist Stephen Dank.

The pressure was already on the Bombers after they lost 10 of their last 13 games to miss out on the finals.

Prior to the revelations, the big question for the Bombers was what impact Brendon Goddard - signed from St Kilda - would have.

Goddard will be invaluable helping on both sides of the ball off the half-back line or taking pressure off the likes of Jobe Watson and Brent Stanton in the Bombers' midfield.

The Bombers' defence needs to lift markedly, however, while the whole team must try to concentrate on football or the finals dream will slip away for another year.

Gold Coast Suns

Expansion teams don't tend to win grand finals early - West Coast took six years to win a flag, Adelaide took seven, Port Adelaide took eight and Brisbane 15, while Fremantle is yet to triumph after 18 attempts.

The Giants went with youth, and there was plenty of potential on show, including young on-ballers Toby Greene, Stephen Coniglio and Dylan Shiel, forward Jeremy Cameron and ruckman Jonathan Giles.

The newcomers also showed plenty of fight, despite being physically overmatched every week.

On the other side of the ledger, the Israel Folau experiment came to a premature, but not totally unexpected end. The high-profile league convert had drawn publicity for the new club, but the on-field reward had not been as high.

For this season the Giants have boosted their defensive stocks by signing veterans Stephen Gilham (Hawthorn) and Bret Thornton (Carlton).

Two draftees are also likely to see plenty of action - midfielder Lachlan Whitfield and defender Lachie Plowman.

The other key storyline for 2013 is off-field, as Kevin Sheedy has his last season as a senior AFL coach, with Leon Cameron waiting in the wings for 2014.

Expectations may have risen, but one or two more wins than last year may be the limit of the improvement.

Western Bulldogs defender Brian Lake was supposed to complete the puzzle, but already his gain has been negated by Matt Suckling's season-ending knee injury, robbing the Hawks of much-needed drive out of the backline.

The other key issue is superstar Lance Franklin. Last year it was Travis Cloke and Collingwood, before that it was Melbourne's Tom Scully, and before that it was Gary Ablett at Geelong.

This year, the contract circus comes to Hawthorn, as Franklin is refusing to decide on his future until season's end.

Cloke did the same but the speculation about his future saw his productivity drop, and the Hawks cannot afford that with Buddy.

At their peak, the Hawks are an irresistible force - their spread of talent and ability to score quickly makes them well worth their favourites' tag for 2013.

But the question remains: will the pain of last September drive Hawthorn to premiership glory, or will it turn out that this squad has wasted its best chance of another flag?

To say that Demons fans have been long-suffering is an understatement - the club needs to start getting better, and fast.

Neeld reacted quickly in the off-season, overhauling the playing list. Eleven players were delisted, traded or retired, with Cale Morton, Jared Rivers, Stefan Martin and Brent Moloney among those finding new clubs.

There were positives, including Mark of the Year specialist Jeremy Howe and the strong play of on-baller Nathan Jones and former Lion Mitch Clark, who led the Dees' goalkicking with 29 majors despite suffering a season-ending injury in round 13.

Among the new arrivals, Chris Dawes brings premiership experience from Collingwood and another marking target to help Clark, while Shannon Byrnes could be a vital cog in the front six if he can reproduce his best from Geelong days.

Hopes are also high for two draftees - the inside/outside midfield combination of Jimmy Toumpas and Jack Viney, the latter a father-son pick through his father Todd Viney who played 233 games for the Demons.

The bottom line, however, is that Melbourne has a hard task ahead and will almost certainly remain near the foot of the ladder in 2013.

The size and manner of the defeat lowered morale which had been built up during a run of nine wins in 10 games in the second half of the year.

North Melbourne has a group of promising young players, including Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnington, Shaun Atley and Robbie Tarrant, who should improve again this season while captain Andrew Swallow is set for another brilliant year in the midfield.

Early on, the Roos will miss the experience of Brent Harvey who is suspended for the first six rounds.

North Melbourne will be hoping the end to last season was just a blip rather than a serious setback.

If North can rediscover the form that drove them to the finals they will be dangerous in 2013 but, like many teams fighting for a place in the eight, any slip-ups will prove very costly.

Port Adelaide Power

Last year was a distressing one for Port Adelaide in many respects - the sacking of coach and former club captain Matthew Primus was followed by the tragic death of John McCarthy while on a post-season trip to Las Vegas.

Five wins and a draw for the year showed the size of the job ahead for new coach Ken Hinkley.

On the plus side Brad Ebert was a revelation in midfield, and Travis Boak was named captain after deciding to stay at Alberton.

Former Bomber Angus Monfries will provide some experience up forward, but Port Adelaide also needs to find out once and for all about John Butcher and Justin Westhoff, who have frustrated as much as they have pleased in their club careers.

A key player in Port Adelaide's structure will be Hamish Hartlett, who seems ready to have a big year as a link man off half-back.

Realistically, Port Adelaide will need some time before the club can become a serious challenger for the eight.

In the meantime, the Power will bank heavily on youth, including rookie midfielders Kane Mitchell and Oliver Wines, forward Jake Neade and defender Sam Colquhoun, plus GWS recruit Jack Hombsch and former West Coast Eagle Lewis Stevenson.

It's a matter of record that the Saints made finals in seven out of nine years from 2004, making the top four five times and the grand final in two of those years - all for no reward.

The golden generation of Saints is now getting to the senior stage, and for the likes of Nick Dal Santo, Nick Riewoldt, Lenny Hayes, Justin Koschitzke, Leigh Montagna, Stephen Milne and co, the raw truth is that time may have passed them by.

The Saints missed the finals in 2012, before free agency took away one of the keys to the side in Brendon Goddard, who accepted an offer to join Essendon.

It's hard to see where the goals are going to come from to get the Saints back to the finals, with their reliance on a group of small forwards including Milne, Terry Milera, Ahmed Saad and Swans recruit Trent Dennis-Lane.

Realistically, this is a transition period, and the Saints will need to build again under coach Scott Watters.

As always Sydney produced a familiar brand of pressure football but it was matched with an injection of pace thanks to Lewis Jetta.

Jetta made Sydney a less predictable side, and one capable of quick rebound football that could hurt opposing teams in a hurry.

The Swans still make use of the old guard - Jarrad McVeigh, Ryan O'Keeffe, Adam Goodes and the evergreen Jude Bolton - but the younger core of players is also important, from the ferocity of Daniel Hannebery and co-captain Kieren Jack to the defence of Ted Richards and Alex Johnson and the marking of Sam Reid.

Sydney will miss Johnson after he suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason.

The big story is the arrival of Kurt Tippett, whose contract dramas at the Crows mean he will not be available until the second half of the season.

If he is not overawed by expectations, then Sydney's forward line will be potent indeed and another grand final will be on the cards.

There were some bright spots, including an early win over Hawthorn, late wins over Geelong and Collingwood, and a 96-point thumping of North Melbourne in the Elimination Final.

Injuries proved a curse for the Eagles, with a string of important players grounded at various times, including Mark LeCras, Andrew Embley, Mark Nicoski and Matt Rosa.

If John Worsfold's men are to make it another prelim or a grand final, then the team's Generation Next - including Luke Shuey, Chris Masten, Andrew Gaff and Jack Darling - need to break out, along with key off-season signing Sharrod Wellingham.

The big difference in 2013, however, could be the return of forwards LeCras and Josh Kennedy. Kennedy played only nine games last year, but his ability as a marking target showed in 2011 when he bagged 59 goals for West Coast.

The mobile LeCras kicked 58 goals in 2009 and 63 the following year. If he and Kennedy can stay healthy, they could kick the Eagles into flag contention.

That drought is not going to be broken this year, and the club is set to continue its period of transition for the next couple of seasons at least as stalwarts like Robert Murphy, Daniel Cross and Daniel Giansiracusa come toward the end of their careers.

One player who has lifted the spirits at the Bulldogs is Luke Dahlhaus, the dreadlocked speedster who has added a dimension to the team's play.

Clay Smith, Mitch Wallis and Tom Liberatore are other players who are growing into their roles at the club.

The problem for the Bulldogs is the lack of a genuine game-breaker, and the continuing struggle to kick enough goals.

Unfortunately for Dogs' fans, the team looks set to go backwards before it goes forward again, and there is a good chance Brendan McCartney's men will take the wooden spoon.