Northern Ireland at low risk from avian flu

I’m not quite sure how they worked this one out, but apparently Northern Ireland is only at low risk from a pandemic of Avian Flu. Although the risk of it ever breaking out is incalculable, overall, the UK is one of the best prepared countries in the world, with enough anti viral Tamiflu to treat 25% of the population, compared with 5% of the Canadian and 1% of the US populations. Thanks to David for the figures.

Tamiflu? Yeah, good for bog basic Flu but not the potential H5N1 human to human virus. There’s no vaccine at the moment, the virus itself wont be known til it mutates and only then can a vaccine be developed. NI has international airports, if/when it hits, we’ll be hit just as hard as anywhere else.

Guys don’t sweat this whole “killer flu” pandemic unless you are old, young, have cystic fibrosis, tuberculosis, hiv or some other disease that impairs your immune system and/or lungs.

A few years back an epidemiologist did a very interesting study of mortality rates and life expectancy for the populations that were hit by the 1918 pandemic. If the flu was solely responsible for the deaths then you would expect to see increased mortality rates and decreased life expectancy in the populations affected – however this statistical impact was not observed which leads to the conclusion that the people who died were probably going to die soon anyway. It was probably the combination of a primary disease that had rendered the patient vulnerable and when they contracted the agressive flu it was more than their comprised bodies could handle.

The best thing you can do to ward off a killer flu is to eat well, keep your immune system up to maximum strength, treat the flu symptoms aggressively (no toughing it out, use the damn over the counter medicines), avoid the flu shots and try to catch every cold and flu you can (the last two don’t apply if you are in one of the vulnerable categories listed above.)

Well, Robert, most of us know someone who is old, young, etc. who would be at risk. So although I’m not panicking, I’m certainly hoping the flu doesn’t hit, for the sake of my baby son, if for no other reason.

Notwithstanding Robert’s comments above, it is misleading to suggest that Tamiflu is not effective. It’s not a vaccine. But even judicious use amongst key groups could play an important role in preventing the spread of the disease.

To add to Alex’s request: any chance of a citation of the study Robert?