A running discussion on the Cincinnati Reds and everything else in the baseball universe.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Reds 2008 Season Preview: Outfield

As per usual, the Reds will have a crowded outfield in 2008. It's been the case for years and will continue to be the case next year. After next season, it is entirely possible that both Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. will be gone. Until that time, it's still a bit of a logjam, but it appears that the centerfield race is coming to an end, so it's time to take a look at what we have for 2008.

Dunn continues to be a lightening rod for discussion. I'm not sure there is a more polarizing figure in the majors today. The crown formerly belonged to Barry Bonds, but his forced exile has made Dunn the likely successor.

I suppose the reason for it is that Dunn, more than any contemporary player, straddles the divide between traditional scouting and statistical analysis. To watch him play is to see an awkward fielder with a poor arm and an inability to make consistent contact. To look at his stats is to see a massively productive player who combines power and patience like few other players. So, in essence, your view on Dunn depends on your larger view of baseball.

One thing I've been watching is the possibility of an early decline from Dunn due to a reliance on "old player skills." Bill James first suggested the idea that young players whose value is driven by power and patience will likely decline earlier, as they are less equipped to deal with a slowing bat or the loss of a step. A player with a myriad of skills or with a surfeit of speed can better deal with aging. In short, Rickey Henderson can afford to lose a step, but Adam Dunn cannot. Ichiro can afford a slightly slower bat, but Adam Dunn cannot.

Dunn has yet to demonstrate any sort of decline, but if he does slip a notch then he could decline in a hurry. While he has been and continues to be very productive, I wouldn't be in favor of giving him a long term deal, as he seems the type whose production could fall off the table in a hurry.

For 2008, it seems like more of the same, though the Bill James projection is much more optimistic than ZIPS. The Reds will have a difficult decision to make after the season on Dunn and his production next season will go a long way towards helping them decide.

At this point, it seems like C-Pat is a "stone cold, lead pipe" lock to be the opening day centerfielder. How the hell did that happen? Honestly, I'm not sure, but evidently Dusty works in mysterious ways. Jay Bruce is on the verge of following Chris Dickerson to the minors, while Freel and Hopper have been marginalized as viable everyday players. Given the way events have unfolded, I'd actually be surprised if C-Pat isn't the starting centerfielder.

On the positive side, Patterson can run and play solid defense. On the flip side, he probably brings the worst everyday player on base percentage in the majors to the table. He also makes inconsistent contact and doesn't bring much power to the table. All in all, he's a Dusty guy and the best that can be hoped for is that Dusty doesn't use him as the leadoff hitter.

Unfortunately, there's really no more appropriate way to kick off the Dusty Baker era than having Corey Patterson get the first AB of the year.

There isn't much left to be said on Ken Griffey Jr. He's one of the best players to ever pull on a pair of spikes. Unfortunately, his time in Cincinnati just never worked like it was supposed to work, which is a remarkable statement given how well things started.

The Reds made a winning trade to acquire him and signed him to a below market contract rate. Given that, how could it NOT have worked out? It's almost inconceivable, but it's been something just short of a disaster since he arrived. At this point, the fairytale is very unlikely to end happily ever after.

Even if Griffey manages to avoid the injury bug that has plagued him, his level of production has fallen off. He can still be a very productive player, but he's not the game changer that he once was. Personally, I think Griffey Jr. has gotten more than his share of unfair criticism during his time in Cincy, but maybe he can lead us to the postseason in 2008 and change the baseball climate in Cincinnati. That wouldn't be such a bad legacy for Jr.

While I'm not as high on Hopper as some, he has begun to grow on me. In fact, I'm intrigued by his ability to get on base while rarely hitting the ball out of the infield. It's a unique skill, but one that might actually be sustainable. At the very least, I would prefer to see him get the opportunity, but guys like Hopper have to fight for every last ounce of respect. One would think that Hopper deserved first crack at the starting centerfield job based on his performance in 2007, but, unfortunately, Dusty didn't see it that way.

For some players, shaking the label of "bench player" is one of the most difficult things to do. This may have been Hopper's best chance to lay claim to the title of "everyday player" at the major league level, but it's a chance that seems to have slipped through his fingers. At the very least, he's a backup who can handle all three outfield positions and do an admirable job of setting the table.

4 comments:

If Hopper doesn't get platoon starts against lefties, it's shameful (assuming Bruce isn't with the Reds). I've pointed out elsewhere that Hopper had better avg, obp, slg, and ops (.351/.385/.441/.826) against lefties than not only Freel and Patterson, but Dunn and Griffey! Yes Hopper outslugged Dunn against lefties. This, to me, is a split that just can't be ignored. His limited 2006 at-bats against lefties were even better at 1.362 ops).

Hopper and Keppinger really turned around the Reds hitting against lefties at midseason, with more than a little help from BP and EdE. Just pencil him in against lefties until he gives you a reason not to. I don't think I give Hopper the fulltime job but wouldn't be ashamed of his .316/.363/.357/.720 against righties either.

Patterson has had an impressive tryout and the Reds should set parameters for success if he does get the job. In other words, he should know that he's getting the job because they think he can do better in the obp/ops/k's department, not because they've accepted his past production as acceptable for the job.

I agree that Hopper deserves some kind of substantive role on this team. Personally, I'd make him the starter, as I think he's got the best blend of offense, defense, and table setting ability.

I just don't get the C-Pat love. He's not the future (at least I hope NOT) and he's no better an option than Hopper. He *may* be a tick better defensively, but he's a very weak offensive player.

I can understand the reason for sending Bruce down (service time), keeping Freel on the bench (position flexibility), and sending Dickerson down (still, too many strikeouts), but I don't understand why Patterson gets the nod over Hopper.

I'm more than a little pessimistic on Dusty Baker, so at this point it seems very clear that C-Pat is going to be our centerfielder and leadoff hitter.

At the very least, I'll hope that Hopper gets the starts against lefties, as I agree it makes sense given his platoon splits. Unfortunately, that isn't always the determining factor for the Reds, as I think Hopper would be the full-time starter if it was.

Patterson's still swinging away, albeit with good results. He still doesn't have a walk - troubling - but I think the twin-brother to obp is putting the ball in play. He only has 2 k's in 25 at-bats. It's difficult to argue that he hasn't made strides in that department. As an armchair GM, he's not in my long-term plans. He's investment as trade-bait. I suppose there is a level of performance he could play at for 3 or 4 months that would make me a believer but I'm not counting on it. I believe his spring performance has a raised him up a peg in his perceived worth.

As for Dickerson, I think he needs to hit close to .300 in AAA or the Reds should stop dreaming. I think he would be of worth in the majors as a toolsy .250 hitter (mlb, not aaa). Hitting .265 or so in AAA shouldn't let him cross the bridge. His walk totals are promising as long as you cover up the column next to them (k's).

About Me

Blessed (or is it cursed) to be a Reds fan. I've loved baseball as long as I can remember. Played it until they told me I couldn't anymore. Now, always thinking on it.
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