What a 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot might look like

The upcoming baseball season will be my eighth as credentialed media but should be my first as a member of the BBWAA. That means, assuming the current system holds, I expect to have a Hall of Fame vote in 2024 for the Cooperstown class of 2025.

Excited by that opportunity, I took a look down the road to try to guess at my first ballot. The following assumes that obvious candidates like Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are long enshrined by then, but also that within the next decade, voters warm up to electing some players currently held out by PED associations.

1. David Ortiz

(PHOTO: Greg M. Cooper/USA TODAY Sports)

Ortiz could get in sooner: He is 38 now and entering the last year of his contract. But a crowded ballot, Ortiz’s lack of defensive ability, and the late start to his success could cost him some votes in his first years of eligibility. Ortiz gets my hypothetical vote for being a top-five hitter in the American league six times and for his postseason heroics.

2. Mike Mussina

(PHOTO: Justin Kase Conder)

Mussina got only 20.3 percent of the vote in his first year of eligibility, but I’m guessing his case picks up steam as he lingers on the ballot. Moose pitched in parks and in an era that inflated his ERA, but he was a very good pitcher for a very long time. He never won a Cy Young Award, but he probably deserved one in 2001.

3. Carlos Beltran

(PHOTO: Rick Osentoski/USA TODAY Sports)

If Beltran plays out his new three-year deal with the Yankees and retires after the 2016 season when he is 39, he would be in his fourth year of eligibility by 2024. If he produces throughout his second tenure in New York, he could get in before I see a ballot. But then, if he produces for the next three seasons, there’s some chance he’d hang on a couple more years. He’ll get my vote if he’s there. Great at everything.

4. Alex Rodriguez

(PHOTO: Andrew Mills/THE STAR-LEDGER via USA TODAY Sports)

If A-Rod winds up suspended for his role in the Biogenesis scandal, then I understand the case against players like him (and the next guy) more than I do the one against players like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Players who get suspended broke the rules while they were being enforced, and cost their team their services in the process.

5. Manny Ramirez

(PHOTO: Greg M. Cooper/USA TODAY Sports)

I’m guessing Manny’s multiple suspensions prove enough to keep him out even after other guys associated with PEDs get in. And, again, I understand that logic and reserve the right to change my mind on this — all of this, obviously — in the coming decade. But Manny was too good a hitter and too fun an entertainer to leave out. And the prospect of some sort of Manny Ramirez induction festival is too thrilling to ignore.

6. Roy Halladay

(PHOTO: Howard Smith/USA TODAY Sports)

Halladay just retired, so he’ll be a veteran on the ballot by 2024. But I’ll guess the crowded ballot in the coming years and the juxtaposition of Halladay’s career counting stats with those of the forthcoming crop of Hall of Fame starters — Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez among them — will keep Doc from cracking 75 percent for a handful of seasons.

Maybe he gets in sooner, though. Halladay was totally dominant for a bunch of years and an incredible workhorse, with a postseason no-hitter as a feather in his cap.

7. Adrian Beltre

(PHOTO: Tim Heitman/USA TODAY Sports)

This one might surprise some people, but Adrian Beltre has been one of the very best players in baseball for many of his 16 seasons in the big leagues. He’ll be 35 in April and he’s signed through 2015 with a vesting option for 2016.

If Beltre plays at least three more seasons and hits anything like the way he has in the past four, he could surpass 3,000 hits and 450 homers. Plus, he has been a gifted defensive third baseman. He is fourth among active players in wins above replacement (WAR), trailing only A-Rod, Albert Pujols, and Jeter. And maybe at his induction he’d explain what the head thing was all about.

8. Johan Santana

(PHOTO: Jerry Lai/USA TODAY Sports)

This one is unfortunately an extreme longshot: Santana still has some work to do to build a Hall of Fame case, and he’s now coming off his second surgery on his shoulder capsule when one is enough to end many careers. Call it a hunch, and an understanding that one is never best-served betting against Johan Santana.

He was the most dominant pitcher in baseball for his brief prime. That won’t be enough to get him to Cooperstown, but coming up on 35 years old, Santana still has time to improve his case if he can ever get healthy again.

9. Jim Thome

(PHOTO: USA TODAY Sports Images)

Will ol’ Jim not be in Cooperstown by 2024? He’s one of only eight guys to hit more than 600 home runs, but he feels like the type of guy who will get overlooked or dismissed as a one-dimensional player for a while.

But if you’ve got to pick one dimension to have, it should probably be Thome’s: Being awesome at hitting. He finished top-five in OPS in his leagues seven times.

10. Edgar Martinez

(PHOTO: AP Photo)

By my count, 2024 will be Martinez’s last year on the ballot. That and his career .418 on-base percentage are enough to secure my vote for a guy who slipped to appearing on only 25.2 percent of ballots this year — his fifth of eligibility.

The upcoming baseball season will be my eighth as credentialed media but should be my first as a member of the BBWAA. That means, assuming (…)

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