GOP 2012 Pres. Rankings, Updated 9/1!

It’s time for my two-month update on the 2012 GOP
Presidential contenders, but it’s been a quiet period compared with the
hyperactive previous two months. Maybe that’s because of the congressional
recess. Or maybe it’s the lack of crazy sex scandals.Anyway, my top five remain the same as the last
update. (Here are links to the previous rankings.) Pawlenty looks very strong
to me in the early going.

Now that summer’s ending, we’ll start seeing more gatherings where 2012 wannabes need to shop their wares. A bunch of them will be at the upcoming
Values Voter Summit, and Huckabee is confirmed for Take Back America.

1) Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota. T-Paw has been travelling the
country, making all the right moves, meeting with all the right people, and
most importantly making sure that Mitt Romney is tagged as the
pro-socialized-medicine guy. (1)

2) Jim DeMint, US Senator from South Carolina. Got in an excellent
high-profile media battle with Obama, which solidified his image as the top
anti-health-care-reform guy. Then he denied interest in a Presidential campaign:
“I wouldn’t get out of my driveway without my wife shooting me in the back.” Note
that this also serves to remind people that he’s not one of the Republicans
with marital problems. (2)

3) Mike Pence, US Representative from Indiana. He did a swing
through Iowa in July, and has been here, there
and everywhere (even Montana!)
in August. (3)

4) John Thune, US Senator from South Dakota. He’s got his own web site
opposing health-care reformhttp://healthfreedomblog.com/. Before that, he had
his own web site opposing the Sotomayor nomination. (4)

5) Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts.
When prominent conservative bloggers are referring to “the dung heap that is
RomneyCare,” you’ve got a problem. Meanwhile, he’s keeping up his busy
schedule, and just scored a huge number in a NH poll. (5)

7) Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi. He’s gone publicly quiet, but
he’s working hard as the new Republican Governors Association chair. Romney
used the RGA chair to promote himself nationally; Barbour is using it to recruit
and fund good 2010 candidates. We’ll see how that approach works. (6)

8) Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana. Nothing new from the Boy Wonder,
other than ruling out a 2010 Senate run. (9)

9) Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana. For a guy who swears he won’t run,
he sure gets a lot of profiles about him as a potential candidate. Did a trade
mission to China
-- nice for the resume. (8)

10) Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House from
Georgia.
All talk. And fundraising. No action. (11)

11) Jon Kyl, Senator from Arizona. One of the few conservatives with
the balls to even oppose the enormously popular “pre-existing conditions” part
of health-care reform. (12)

13) Eric Cantor, US Representative from Virginia. Quieter than normal, but he’s
raised a lot of money through his PAC. (13)

15) Kay Bailey Hutchison, US Senator from Texas. Voted against
Sotomayor and is selling her Virginia home,
but still having trouble with Texas
conservatives. Her favorability ratings are still sky-high, but it increasingly
looks like if she wins the governors race, she loses the party conservatives
along the way. (10)

16) Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida. The first
few small trial balloons did not draw massive fire, so I wouldn’t be surprised
if he starts raising his profile. (18)

17) Lindsey Graham, US Senator from South Carolina. Voted for Sotomayor. That
won’t help. (14)

18) Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska. On the plus side, she’s making a
trip to China.
On the down side, she’s coming back. (16)

19) Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas. Since
the Palin resignation, Huckabee has been in full-throated Obama-attack mode. Is
he trying to keep up with her as a Presidential candidate or a conservative money-maker?
My guess is the latter. (17)

20) Dirk Kempthorne, former Interior Secretary.
Nothing new that I know of. (19)

21) Charlie Crist, Governor of Florida. Got handed a political hot potato
-- Senate appointment-- when Mel
Martinez decided to pull a Palin. Unsurprisingly, Crist picked a crony, after
first trotting out a series of “short list” candidates of every gender,
geography, ideology, and ethnicity. (22)

22) Chuck Grassley, US Senator from Iowa. Douglas Burns, who reports on Iowa
politics from inside Iowa, reports that Steffen Schmidt, who studies Iowa
politics from inside Iowa, tells him that Grassley is putting out serious
feelers about a Presidential run. It would help explain Grassley’s mounting
rhetoric against health care reform. If he runs, he would give Romney the
excuse he needs to skip the Iowa
caucuses. (--)

23) Jim Douglass, Governor of Vermont. The second-best thing about his
announcement that he will not run for re-election in 2010 is that he
immediately becomes part of the Presidential rumor-mill. He immediately got his
first denial out of the way, using the same tactic as DeMint -- saying his wife
has a divorce lawyer on speed-dial should he ever run for President. The best thing about his announcement is the
inevitable candidacy of his lieutenant governor, Brian Dubie. Yes, I will laugh
every single time I see a “vote for Dubie” sign. I am that juvenile. (--)

24) Jon Huntsman, Governor of Utah. Confirmed as ambassador to China, where
his first duty will be explaining Sarah Palin to them. (23)

25) Sean Hannity, talk-show host. The trial balloon has been successfully
floated. Presumably that’s just for ratings -- the guy might be crazy, but he’s
not going to walk away from his lucrative day job to be a candidate. Is he?
(--)