Democrats’ outlook for keeping control of the Senate has slightly improved, according to an analysis by The Hill, largely due to Sen. Dick Lugar’s (Ind.) defeat at the hands of Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R), a Tea Party favorite, in the Republican primary.

Lugar would have been all but unbeatable in a general election, while a match-up between Mourdock and Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), two little-known candidates, is less predictable. While the state remains heavily Republican-leaning, Donnelly has some centrist credentials and held onto his House district in the 2010 Republican wave year. Plus, Mourdock has taken enough hard-right positions that he’s vulnerable to Democratic attacks. The Hill moves this race to a “toss-up.”

The Hill lists seven additional races as toss-ups, meaning Republicans have a fighting chance to reclaim the majority going into November.