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2019-04-23 11:59:38

SNAP

Snap

$12.08

0.55 (4.77%)

, FB

Facebook

$183.09

1.6 (0.88%)

11:59

04/23/19

04/23

11:59

04/23/19

11:59

On The Fly: What to watch in Snap earnings report

Snap Inc. (SNAP) is scheduled to report results of its first fiscal quarter after market close on April 23, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET. What to watch for: 1. USER GROWTH: With its last report, Snap said that its Daily Average Users, or DAUs, were 186M, flat quarter-over-quarter and down 1M users from last year. At the time, CEO Evan Spiegel said, "We ended the year with user engagement stabilizing in advance of the broad rollout of our Android improvements, with overall Q4 daily active users flat quarter-over-quarter and average time spent above 30 minutes per day... We are seeing our investments in improving the Snapchat experience beginning to bear fruit on iOS. In Q4, our iOS daily active users increased both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, and average time spent on iOS grew faster during Q4 than it did last year. This is great progress following our redesign, and we look forward to continuing to grow engagement on our platform." On April 10, eMarketer's Ross Benes said he expects Snapchat's U.S. monthly user base to decline 2.8% this year to 77.5M, but sees Snapchat increasing its worldwide monthly user base 11.3% to 297.7M in 2019. In a statement to media outlets and BTIG's Rich Greenfield following that report, Snap called the methodology of eMarketer's forecast "flawed" and said its user forecast is more than 10M off from the company's publicly available reach on its ad buying tool. 2. RECENT SUMMIT: On April 4, Snap hosted its first-ever partner summit, which was viewed as part of an ongoing effort to be more open and communicative as the company faces competition from other platforms like Facebook's (FB) Instagram and up-and-comer TikTok. At the event, Snap announced Snap Games, a real-time multiplayer gaming platform featuring original and third-party video games from a number of developers. The company also made several other announcements, including a Bitmoji clock face partnership with Fitbit (FIT), a new slate of Snap Originals shows and new augmented reality and camera search experiences. 3. SHARE PERFORMANCE STRONG, ANALYST VIEWS MIXED: Social stocks have outperformed year-to-date, up ~55% versus the Nasdaq's rally of 20%, with Snap being the top performer with an advance of 120% after lagging the group in 2018, Jefferies analyst Brent Thill recently told investors. Thill is "incrementally positive" on Snap's "encouraging momentum," but says the company is "not out of the woods yet." If Snap can deliver on daily active user growth in Q1, it should be a catalyst for shares. However with the stock trading at nine-times 2019, these improvements are largely priced in, Thill said. On April 18, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter downgraded Snap to Neutral from Outperform, citing valuation. Pachter expects Snap to report Q1 results modestly above guidance and consensus and foresees Q2 guidance roughly in-line with consensus, but he believes the stock's current price leaves little room for upside. He maintained a $12.25 price target on Snap shares. On April 5, RBC Capital analyst Mark Mahaney upgraded Snap to Outperform from Sector Perform and raised his price target for the shares to $17 from $10. The analyst sees early evidence that its Android platform improvements are "finally gaining traction." Snap may have reached a fundamentals inflection point, Mahaney told investors. Further, the analyst views the stock's valuation as "much-less demanding" relative to 2017, he said. This morning, Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Ju raised his price target for Snap to $13 from $10.50 and reiterated an Outperform rating, noting that the company recently released an updated version of its Android App, which he believes will place it in a better position to address user demand across the globe. Ju now expects 3M incremental users for 2019 versus a 1.5M decrease he forecast previously.

Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Morgan Stanley (MS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi with analyst Keith Horowitz saying Morgan Stanley reported "strong" Q1 results but the shares are fairly valued. 2. Snap (SNAP) downgraded to Negative from Mixed at Vertical Group and to Neutral from Outperform at Wedbush. 3. Rite Aid (RAD) downgraded with a Sell from Neutral at Guggenheim while Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) was downgraded with a Neutral from Buy. 4. CF Industries (CF) downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA/Merrill with analyst Steve Byrne saying he has spoken with 10 key channel contacts in the Cornbelt and several commented that never in their 30-plus year careers have they seen fertilizer applications this far behind, mainly due to the weather. 5. FMC Corporation (FMC) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital with analyst Arun Viswanathan citing the "uncertainty of Rynaxypyr and Cyazypyr patent expiration" as well as the reduced multiple from the recent lithium separation. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.

Social stocks have outperformed year-to-date, up ~55% versus the Nasdaq's rally of 20%, with Snap (SNAP) being the top performer up 120% after lagging the group in 2018, Jefferies analyst Brent Thill tells investors in a research note. The analyst continues to prefer share of Facebook (FB) in social with a Buy rating and $200 price target. He sees upside in average revenue per user and operating expenditure growth. Meanwhile, Thill is "incrementally positive" on Snap's "encouraging momentum," but says the company is "not out of the woods yet." If Snap can deliver on daily active user growth in Q1 it should be a catalyst for shares, however with the stock trading at nine-times 2019, these improvements are largely priced in, Thill tells investors in a pre-earnings research note. And while the analyst remains "fundamental fans" of Twitter, he views the stock as "reasonably valued." Further, Twitter faces tough comps for international in the first half of 2019 and for the U.S. in the second half of the year, Thill points out.

04/23/19

FBCO

04/23/19NO CHANGETarget $13FBCOOutperform

Snap price target raised to $13 from $10.50 at Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Ju raised his price target for Snap to $13 from $10.50 ahead of quarterly results. The analyst notes that the company recently released an updated version of its Android App, which will place it in a better position to address user demand across the globe. Ju now expects 3M incremental users for 2019 versus 1.5M decrease previously. He reiterates an Outperform rating on the shares based on potential for better-than-expected user growth with a revamped Android app, advertising revenue growth acceleration by the second half of the year, and Snap being a scarce asset that offers advertisers access to a coveted younger demographic.

FBFacebook

$183.09

1.6 (0.88%)

04/22/19

CLVD

04/22/19NO CHANGECLVDBuy

Facebook 2019 estimates raised at Cleveland Research

Cleveland Research analyst Chandler Converse said his checks point to Q1 revenue for Facebook in-line with management's guidance for a mid-single digit deceleration in growth, but he also noted that advertisers seem incrementally more optimistic on the adoption of Stories ads. Additionally, partners appeared to slow plans to diversify budgets away from Facebook in the near-term given better ROI trends, said the analyst, who raised his 2019 estimates and keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

04/22/19

BARD

04/22/19NO CHANGETarget $195BARDOutperform

Facebook to report in-line to better-than-expected Q1, says Baird

Baird analyst Colin Sebastian expects Facebook to report in-line to better-than-expected Q1 results this week on the back of healthy advertiser demand. Sebastian tells investors in a research note that his firm's checks continue to suggest positive trends for the Facebook ecosystem, adding that Instagram is "particularly strong," despite headline concerns over platform privacy and safety. Management continues to highlight the growing contribution from new channels/formats while Messenger remains an area of increased focus, potentially a highlight at the upcoming F8 conference next week, he says. He maintains an Outperform rating and $195 price target.

Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Ju continues to anticipate the real clearing data point for Facebook shares will arrive on the Q3 report, in which he expects the OpEx/CapEx outlook to signal a return to growth for free cash flow. In the meantime, ahead of Q1 results, his checks continue to suggest minimal deceleration for U.S. budgets coupled with modest headwinds in Europe. Ju also believes there are "greater signs" of potential value creation from new products. The analyst reiterates an Outperform rating on the shares, while raising his price target on the stock to $211 from $210, as he believes Facebook will be able to drive long-term revenue growth without a material lift in ad loads with, the Street models continue to underestimate the long-term monetization potential of other billion-user properties like Messenger and WhatsApp, and free cash flow growth recovery for 2020.

According to a regulatory filing, Ryan Graves informed Uber Technologies of his intention to resign as a member of the company's board of directors, effective as of May 27, 2019, including any committees of the board of directors on which he serves. Graves' resignation was not the result of any disagreement between Graves and the company, its management, board of directors or any committee thereof, or with respect to any matter relating to the company's operations, policies or practices, according to the filing.

U.S. Energy announced that on May 21, Nasdaq notified the company that as a result of not having received its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended March 31. 2019, and because the company is delinquent in filing its Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2018, the company does not comply with the requirements of Nasdaq Listing Rule 5250(c)(1) for continued listing on the Exchange. This notification has no effect on the listing of the company's common stock at this time. However, pursuant to the notice, the company was required to submit a plan by May 23, 2019 to comply with the Exchange's requirements for continued listing.

Apple is being sued by customers alleging that the U.S. tech giant is unlawfully disclosing and selling information about users' iTunes purchases as well as their personal data, Bloomberg's Robert Burnson reports. The customers claim that such alleged practices are contrary to Apple's promise in advertising that "What happens on your iPhone stays on your iPhone," Burnson notes. Reference Link

SuperCom received a notification from Nasdaq for not having timely filed its Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2018, as previously disclosed by the company on May 16, 2019. The company does not comply with the Nasdaq Listing Rule 5250(c)(1). This notice from Nasdaq has no effect currently on the listing of the company's common stock on the Nasdaq Capital Market.

U.S. Energy announced that Nasdaq notified the company that as a result of not having received the company's quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the period ended March 31 and because the company is delinquent in filing its Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2018, the company does not comply with the requirements of Nasdaq Listing Rule 5250 for continued listing on the exchange. This notification has no effect on the listing of the company's common stock at this time. However, pursuant to the notice, the company was required to submit a plan by May 23 to comply with the exchange's requirements for continued listing. The company has submitted the plan to the exchange. If the exchange accepts the company's Plan, the exchange may grant an exception of up to 180 calendar days from the Form 10-K's due date, or until October 14 to regain compliance. The company continues to work toward the filing of the Form 10-Q and the Form 10-K with the SEC as soon as practicable.

Qiagen (QGEN) announced the launch of its therascreen PIK3CA RGQ PCR Kit after it received U.S. regulatory approval as a companion diagnostic to aid in identifying breast cancer patients eligible for treatment with PIQRAY, a newly approved therapy developed and marketed by Novartis (NVS). The therascreen PIK3CA Kit is the first companion diagnostic assay to obtain premarket approval from the FDA for use in any cancer indication for detection of activating mutations in the PIK3CA gene. It is also the first FDA approved assay for guiding treatment decisions in breast cancer using plasma specimens as a liquid biopsy.

Brazil's ANAC said it has suspended all flights and operations of Avianca Brasil in the South American nation as a precuartionary measure, Reuters reports. The move follows Avianca's filing for bankruptcy in late 2018, the report says. "All the flights are suspended until the company proves it has the capacity to maintain operations safely," ANAC said. Reference Link

Apple has bought Tueo Health, a start-up that was making a system to help parents monitor asthma symptoms in sleeping kids, CNBC's Christina Farr and Steve Kovach report, citing a person familiar with the deal. It is not clear how much the U.S. tech giant paid for the start-up, the authors note. Reference Link

A review of Boeing's grounded 737 MAX aircraft has expanded to include emergency procedures used by pilots on earlier models of the plane, further delaying its return to service, the Wall Street Journal's Andy Pasztor reports, citing U.S. government officials. The FAA hasn't questioned the safety of older aircraft currently in service, but the broadened review will play a major role in adding months to the time expected to get the grounded fleet of 737 MAX jets back in the skies, Pasztor notes. As part of the FAA's safety analysis of a proposed software fix for the fleet, the agency is also weighing changes to how pilots of the entire 737 family are trained to respond when the flight-control computer or other systems suddenly push the jet's nose down, the author says. Reference Link

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), the SPX option derived measure of implied volatility, fell 1.07 today to close at 15.85, while the underlying SPX index gained 3.82 to close at $2826.06, a 0.14% increase. 274,267 VIX option contracts traded, 38.73% of the typical daily volume for the product. Calls made up 74.0% of the volume.

Volume was average for this time of day. Breadth was mixed with issues and volume bullish while new highs to new lows were bearish (negative divergence). Advancing Issues: 2009 / Declining Issues: 1048 -- for a ratio of 1.9 to 1. Advancing Volume: 915,942,000 / Declining Volume: 681,710,000 -- for a ratio of 1.3 to 1. New 52-Week Highs: 57 / New 52-Week Lows: 114.

Volume was below average for this time of day. Breadth was bullish across the board. Advancing Issues: 1963 / Declining Issues: 956 -- for a ratio of 2.1 to 1. Advancing Volume: 1,549,354,000 / Declining Volume: 986,891,000 -- for a ratio of 1.6 to 1. New 52-Week Highs: 138 / New 52-Week Lows: 89.

Regional Health Properties, Inc. announcement concerning the company's noncompliance with the continued listing standards of NYSE American LLC. On May 21, 2019, the company received an official notice of noncompliance from the Exchange stating that the company is not in compliance with the Exchange's continued listing standards under the timely filing criteria outlined in Section 1007 of the Exchange's company Guide because the company failed to timely file its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2019, which was due to be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission no later than May 20, 2019. For the reasons previously disclosed in its Form 12b-25 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 16, 2019, the company has not timely filed the Delayed Form 10-Q because additional time is needed to finalize the Delayed Form 10-Q and furnish the XBRL Interactive Data File exhibits required by Item 601b101 of Regulation S-K. The company is actively working to complete the Delayed Form 10-Q and intends to file the Delayed Form 10-Q under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, within the next thirty days. As a result of the foregoing, the company has become subject to the procedures and requirements of Section 1007 of the Company Guide. During the six-month period from the date of the Filing Delinquency, the Exchange will monitor the company and the status of the Delayed Form 10-Q and any subsequent reports until the Filing Delinquency is cured. If the company fails to cure the Filing Delinquency within the Initial Cure Period, the Exchange may, in its sole discretion, allow the company's securities to be traded for up to an additional six-month period, depending on the company's specific circumstances. If the Exchange determines that an Additional Cure Period is not appropriate, suspension and delisting procedures will commence in accordance with the procedures set forth in Section 1010 of the Company Guide.