Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Trump up in Ohio and dead even in Florida and Pennsylvania

The Washington Establishment meme is Trump loses big in November. Larry Sabato who correctly predicted Trump had no chance of winning the nomination, now predicts a landslide for Hillary Clinton.

It's too early for polls, but as the good people of West Virginia vote for Trump and against Clinton in the primaries today, the Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll shows Trump up by 4 in Ohio and down by 1 in both Florida and Pennsylvania.
The last Democrat to win the presidency without Pennsylvania was Harry Truman.

Hillary suffers a wider gender gap than Donald Trump does. In Pennsylvania, she is down 21 points among men (Trump is down 19 among women). She is down 15 points among men in Ohio (Trump is down 7 among women). She is down 13 points among men in Florida (Trump is down 13 among women). Clearly she will pay the price for her proposing anti-male policies backed by politically correct rhetoric aimed at destroying males.

"Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

"At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and 2012. And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida."

"This election may be good for divorce lawyers. The gender gap is massive and currently benefits Trump," Brown added. "In Pennsylvania, Clinton's 19-point lead among women matches Trump's 21-point margin among men. In Ohio, she is up 7 points among women but down 15 points with men. In Florida she is up 13 points among women but down 13 points among men."

"Trump would do a better job handling the economy, voters say. He also would do a better job handling terrorism, voters in Florida and Ohio say. Pennsylvania voters are divided.

"By wide margins, voters in all three states say Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and by smaller margins, voters in all three states say she has higher moral standards."

4 comments:

If Sabato predicted Trump losing the nod he was incorrect. Might want to put that straight. Things are turning around for Trump even faster than they did for Reagan against an incumbent. The Dems should be shaking in their boots. But hey, they've got PJ O'Rourke. What else could they want?

Of course Trump will improve his polls versus Hillary. She is a congenital liar and a traitor (how else could the Russians gain control of U.S uranium mining assets?). Now that all of the other GOP candidates are out of the way watch for The Donald to go through Hillary like crap through a goose. - Elric

PA is the biggie, that's insurance, but OH, with a voter ID law*, is now a lot safer.

* It's illustrative PA's voter ID law keeps getting shot down. It's that important for the demos to keep the vote fraud going, but if the Reagan Demos go for Trump, PA is his, regardless of what they do in North and West Philly.