Exclusive–Breitbart/Gravis Poll: Clinton Up 4 Points over Trump in Florida

15 Oct 2016Washington

Democrat Hillary R. Clinton opened up a four-point lead over her GOP rival Donald J. Trump in the campaign to win Florida and its 29 electoral votes, according to the Breitbart/Gravis poll conducted Oct. 11 through Oct. 13 with 1,799 registered voters.

Clinton was the choice of 46 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based polling firm that conducted the poll. The poll carries a 2.3 percent margin of error with a 95 percent level of confidence.

“The ‘No’ side is effective with suburban women, when they emphasize the effects of marijuana on children,” he said.

“It looks like it will pass this time, but barely,” he said. “We believe it will pass based on a younger demographic voting this year and a different campaign run by John Morgan.” Morgan is the founder and senior partner at Morgan and Morgan, a personal injury law firm with more than 300 attorneys in Florida and other states. Morgan has been the state’s leading advocate for legalizing medical marijuana, but in the 2016 campaign, he has stepped away from the spotlight.

Kaplan said Florida does have a libertarian streak that has become more significant in the last 10 years.

The race is made more interesting by the 19 percent of the voters who said they were undecided.

One clue of how the undecideds will break is in the favorables.

Twelve percent of the voters have a strongly favorable opinion of Murphy and 20 percent have a strongly unfavorable opinion.

Rubio is a much better known politician, who ran for his party’s presidential nomination, and before running for the Senate in 2010 he was the speaker of the state’s House of Representatives.

Thirty-three percent of the voters have a strongly unfavorable opinion of Rubio, which is down from 44 percent in the Oct. 4 poll. Twenty percent of the voters have a strongly favorable opinion of Rubio, just about the same as the 19 percent in the Oct. 4 poll.