Numbers, Notes and a Deep Breath

Using a KenPom style of statistics, here are the four worst losses by UAlbany last season:

Difference

Date

Opponent

Of Rtg

D Rtg

Poss

-39.55

12/05/10

@Siena

73.65

113.21

73.32

-38.58

11/09/10

@Syracuse

51.84

90.42

82.95

-31.3

01/19/10

@Boston U

86.45

117.75

67.09

-28.98

01/30/10

@Vermont

74.07

103.05

62.11

Here are the numbers for the games we’ve seen so far:

Difference

Opponent

Poss

Off. Eff.

Def. Eff.

-6.47

Cornell

61.8

98.7

105.1

-24.66

American

52.7

83.5

108.1

-39.29

Georgia Tech

68.7

74.2

113.5

A couple thoughts:

-Just how slooooow the American game was- 52.7 possession is three possession less than UA’s slowest game last year and 15 less than the D1 average (67.9). This is a big reason why it seemed so painful, but I believe it was actually a strategy by Will Brown. If the tempo was increased, a toothless UAlbany attack would not have been in the game as long as they were.

-We still have not reached the depths of last year against Siena and I would be shocked if we do.

-These numbers are very much influenced by not having a point guard shutting down our ability to run / control tempo. With Black in the game, I guarantee the amount of possessions would have gone down. Will Brown tried to offset the up tempo Georgia Tech squad with methodical play, but the team struggled to get it past half court.

As for the deep breath, that goes hand in hand with an evaluation of last nights game. Despite this outrageous half-time statistic, 17 FGA, 17 Turnovers, there are a few positives to take away from the game:

-The purple jerseys look sharp.

– Jacob Iati impressed and he deserves some credit. He struggled to get the ball across half court, but he still posted a respectable 5 assists and 3 turnovers. Iati attempted to break down the defense and if that carries over to non-ACC opponents, he could be a sturdy back-up PG.

-Tim Ambrose can flat out score the basketball. His shooting percentages remain very solid despite playing out of position / without a top level point guard. Hopefully he’s earned his starting spot for good and we’ll see his production only improve once Black returns.

-Logan Aronhalt listened! He threw down a dunk early in the first half that helped set the pace for a very solid second half. He also shot the ball better, he will again be key to a victory against FDU.

-Jake Lindfors played solid minutes and he and Puk combined for some nice blocks down low. Our 4 man frontcourt rotation is coming along.

All in all, if we had Jamar Wilson, let alone Mike Black, out there last night, the outcome likely would not have drastically altered. Hopefully these kids head home with some confidence from that second half and it carries over into FDU. This OOC was set up to be a bloodbath and all that really matters is America East play. I’m not yet ready to scoff at Will Brown’s assessment: “We will be fine.”

Also, for you couch scouts, FDU is playing their home opener at Stony Brook tipping off as I type this ( 7 pm). It should provide a good measure of what the Great Danes will be up against.