Where voters draw the line

Published: Sunday, November 18, 2012 at 1:00 a.m.

Last Modified: Saturday, November 17, 2012 at 11:10 p.m.

Just as the nation is divided politically between red states and blue states, Sarasota County shows a geographic split between the Democratic and Republican parties.

Facts

MAP:

How Sarasota County precincts voted in the election. 12A

While Sarasota County south of Clark Road was solidly Republican, the area north of Clark was an entirely different story, results from the Nov. 6 election show.

President Barack Obama, congressional candidate Keith Fitzgerald, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and state attorney candidate John Torraco -- all Democrats -- won precincts north of Clark, even as all those candidates but Nelson lost Sarasota County overall.

South of Clark Road, the east-west connector between Interstate 75 and U.S. 41, all those Democratic candidates lost -- typically by large margins to their Republican opponents, including Mitt Romney, U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, U.S. Senate candidate Connie Mack IV, and state attorney Ed Brodsky, respectively.

"There is a reason why we had three victory offices south of Clark Road," Sarasota Republican Party Chairman Joe Gruters said of the showing.

Gruters said areas north of the six-lane dividing line have trended Democratic for several election cycles. That has prompted the GOP to more aggressively push turnout in the south to balance out the Democratic surge in the north, he said.

The split has been a frustration for Democrats, who see progress north of Clark, but not enough to win countywide seats, because of how deeply red South County has been.

"Why do you think our headquarters was south of Clark Road?" Sarasota Democratic Party chairwoman Rita Ferrandino said. "We are trying to build a presence south of Clark Road."

Distinct colors

The presidential election highlighted the north-south Sarasota County divide. When just the voting precincts north of Clark Road and Siesta Key are tallied, Obama won 50 percent of the 95,000 votes, compared with 49 percent for Romney.

The city of Sarasota was a major reason for these results. Within the city limits, Obama won 61 percent of the vote.

But head south of Clark Road and the politics among the 113,000 voters there flip. Romney won 57 percent of the vote south of Clark, to Obama's 42 percent.

The results were even more pronounced in the 16th Congressional District race between Buchanan and Fitzgerald. Buchanan won Sarasota County as a whole by 53 percent, thanks in large part to South County voters.

But north of Clark Road, Fitzgerald won 52 percent of the vote, and in the city of Sarasota, 62 percent. Meanwhile, Buchanan won 56 percent south of Clark to offset Fitzgerald's success to the north.

Gruters said the results in the city of Sarasota show why he's all for the parties staying out of Sarasota City Commission races, which are supposed to be nonpartisan. If voters know who the Democrats are, he's convinced Republican candidates are in trouble.

"I know we can't win in the city of Sarasota," Gruters said.

Key demographics

Republicans' frustration in the city is mirrored by Democrats' experience in South County.

Ferrandino said she gets a lot of heat from the party faithful over not having more countywide candidates for County Commission seats and other offices.

But Ferrandino said the data shows that South County is a major hindrance for recruiting good Democratic candidates, who must have significant crossover appeal.

Demographics can help explain some of the Sarasota County voting disparities, especially in the presidential election.

Obama won statewide and nationwide by maximizing the minority vote in Hispanic and African-American communities. He struggled the most with voters over 65.

Those demographics align with Obama's showing in Sarasota County's municipalities: The larger the minority population, the higher Obama's percentage of the vote.

In Sarasota, which is 75 percent white and 22 percent are 65 or older, Obama won 60 percent of the vote.

In North Port, where 87 percent of voters are white, Obama's percentage of the vote fell to 46 percent.

In Venice, which is 97 percent white and 57 percent over age 65, Obama won just 42 percent of the vote.

On Longboat Key, where 98 percent of the population is white and 67 percent over 65, Obama won just 38 percent.

The wild card

In this scenario, the wild card is North Port.

Both Ferrandino and Gruters said the growing city was contested in the 2012 campaign. Though in the Republican-heavy south county region, North Port's population is considerably younger and more diverse. Only 18 percent of the population is 65 or older and 87 percent white.

The result was a more narrowly decided presidential race. Romney won 53 percent of the vote in North Port to Obama's 46 percent. But in the Senate race, Nelson took 51 percent of the vote to Mack's 45 percent.

The Nelson race shows that if Democrats win in North Port, they can win countywide based on their strengths to the north.

But for Republicans, the presidential race shows that if North Port goes Republican, the GOP can typically offset Democrats in the north and hold the county.

<p>Just as the nation is divided politically between red states and blue states, Sarasota County shows a geographic split between the Democratic and Republican parties.</p><p>While Sarasota County south of Clark Road was solidly Republican, the area north of Clark was an entirely different story, results from the Nov. 6 election show.</p><p>President Barack Obama, congressional candidate Keith Fitzgerald, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and state attorney candidate John Torraco -- all Democrats -- won precincts north of Clark, even as all those candidates but Nelson lost Sarasota County overall.</p><p>South of Clark Road, the east-west connector between Interstate 75 and U.S. 41, all those Democratic candidates lost -- typically by large margins to their Republican opponents, including Mitt Romney, U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, U.S. Senate candidate Connie Mack IV, and state attorney Ed Brodsky, respectively.</p><p>"There is a reason why we had three victory offices south of Clark Road," Sarasota Republican Party Chairman Joe Gruters said of the showing.</p><p>Gruters said areas north of the six-lane dividing line have trended Democratic for several election cycles. That has prompted the GOP to more aggressively push turnout in the south to balance out the Democratic surge in the north, he said.</p><p>The split has been a frustration for Democrats, who see progress north of Clark, but not enough to win countywide seats, because of how deeply red South County has been.</p><p>"Why do you think our headquarters was south of Clark Road?" Sarasota Democratic Party chairwoman Rita Ferrandino said. "We are trying to build a presence south of Clark Road."</p><p>Distinct colors</p><p>The presidential election highlighted the north-south Sarasota County divide. When just the voting precincts north of Clark Road and Siesta Key are tallied, Obama won 50 percent of the 95,000 votes, compared with 49 percent for Romney.</p><p>The city of Sarasota was a major reason for these results. Within the city limits, Obama won 61 percent of the vote.</p><p>But head south of Clark Road and the politics among the 113,000 voters there flip. Romney won 57 percent of the vote south of Clark, to Obama's 42 percent.</p><p>The results were even more pronounced in the 16th Congressional District race between Buchanan and Fitzgerald. Buchanan won Sarasota County as a whole by 53 percent, thanks in large part to South County voters.</p><p>But north of Clark Road, Fitzgerald won 52 percent of the vote, and in the city of Sarasota, 62 percent. Meanwhile, Buchanan won 56 percent south of Clark to offset Fitzgerald's success to the north.</p><p>Gruters said the results in the city of Sarasota show why he's all for the parties staying out of Sarasota City Commission races, which are supposed to be nonpartisan. If voters know who the Democrats are, he's convinced Republican candidates are in trouble.</p><p>"I know we can't win in the city of Sarasota," Gruters said.</p><p>Key demographics</p><p>Republicans' frustration in the city is mirrored by Democrats' experience in South County.</p><p>Ferrandino said she gets a lot of heat from the party faithful over not having more countywide candidates for County Commission seats and other offices.</p><p>But Ferrandino said the data shows that South County is a major hindrance for recruiting good Democratic candidates, who must have significant crossover appeal.</p><p>Demographics can help explain some of the Sarasota County voting disparities, especially in the presidential election.</p><p>Obama won statewide and nationwide by maximizing the minority vote in Hispanic and African-American communities. He struggled the most with voters over 65.</p><p>Those demographics align with Obama's showing in Sarasota County's municipalities: The larger the minority population, the higher Obama's percentage of the vote.</p><p><pbs:dingbats char="n">In Sarasota, which is 75 percent white and 22 percent are 65 or older, Obama won 60 percent of the vote.</p><p><pbs:dingbats char="n">In North Port, where 87 percent of voters are white, Obama's percentage of the vote fell to 46 percent.</p><p><pbs:dingbats char="n">In Venice, which is 97 percent white and 57 percent over age 65, Obama won just 42 percent of the vote.</p><p><pbs:dingbats char="n">On Longboat Key, where 98 percent of the population is white and 67 percent over 65, Obama won just 38 percent.</p><p>The wild card</p><p>In this scenario, the wild card is North Port.</p><p>Both Ferrandino and Gruters said the growing city was contested in the 2012 campaign. Though in the Republican-heavy south county region, North Port's population is considerably younger and more diverse. Only 18 percent of the population is 65 or older and 87 percent white.</p><p>The result was a more narrowly decided presidential race. Romney won 53 percent of the vote in North Port to Obama's 46 percent. But in the Senate race, Nelson took 51 percent of the vote to Mack's 45 percent.</p><p>The Nelson race shows that if Democrats win in North Port, they can win countywide based on their strengths to the north.</p><p>But for Republicans, the presidential race shows that if North Port goes Republican, the GOP can typically offset Democrats in the north and hold the county.</p>