Well, problem from my point of view is that external factors are distorting the traditional analysis, is clear that oil prices, melting down of €, melting down of Yen, and of course of many currencies associated, most of latin american or south Asia.

An strong dollar and the refugee that it is now makes difficult to predict something for this year, in addition to that, where do you invest now? negative rates all around.

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Thanks for a insight and useful article, is shocking to think that we are in the other extreme of where the index was in 2009, of course this is a way to relate the past, I believe that ahead are some opportunities with sectors as oil or basic materials or domestic sales companies ( now that dollar is strong), but basically it seems that best position right how for a portfolio is to have 80% cash.

Never the rare earths has been a strategic issue, never were scarce of part of a cartel, never went out of supply, new mines are coming into the market in low cost countries as Uzbekistan and others lie.

Often I agree with your comments and conclusions, not this time, grids are reacting to solar installations and are building now ( in U.S) an aggressive campaign to keep prices and customers, they are fighting back and cheap oil and gas is helping them.

I don´t see a tangible benefit for stock investor in First Solar, in addition to that, you have a formidable competitor in Mr. Musk company Solarcity (SCTY) which is buying market is Google style, Vivint is a copycat of the same strategy, so selling panels with a profit deserves a hold and see attitude for a few months.

Yes a lot of negativity, however W.Buffet INCREASED their position from 5% to 8% in the company, and is specially significant because Buffet rarely invents in tech companies ( I think is his first).Question is; What is he seeing that the rest is not?.

This "rare earth" affairs has been a fraud just like Enron in their time, pity for all the people that was after the pushers in this site, I remember some quarrel fights with fans telling me not to confuse the investors with my "wrong opinions"....well time clears everything.

The only ones who really earned some money here were the people that bought an old mine and equipment, repackaged in a proper public relations pumping and create Molycorp as a $80 dollars! per stock company.

Uranium non military grade is one of the few commodities where U.S is not important ( from the demand side), all the uranium consumption is coming from Asia, Russia and a few spots around ( India is not meaningful for the next years).

From the supply side this market has been contaminated since the end of the Soviet Union, none knows for sure what is there, U.S and Europe has been consuming Russian product since 1992....there has been an oversupply of Uranium since the SALT treaties.

Now, there are other important issues that will impact this market:

1. Natural gas is plentiful and will be available worldwide for the next 50 years in many countries having shale deposits this includes some portions of Europe, South America, China, Russia Indonesia, India etc. A classic nuclear facility means 20 of gas. It´s silly to say that is cheaper, safer and easier to use that uranium.

2. Technology obsolescence, New, safer and cheaper nuclear technologies will be available soon, uranium oxide reactors, "nuclear batteries", Helium 3 reactors, etc.We are using technology based in light water process which is from WWII and Hiroshima times.

3. Green energy, the rate of substitution of grid source power for "personal roof power" is growing in double digit numbers each year, Solarcity, Vivint and others are now installing personal systems in many U.S homes, that will in a different fashion affect Europe and China.

4. Wind energy is growing too in 2 digits fashion and this is affecting industries and services, this option will capture 20% of total energy generation in many countries very soon...if not already there, as Spain.

5. Grid survival; Grids will need the cheapest energy available to compete with sun and wind, the name of the game is going to change, for first time since electricity revolution we won´t depend in the grid to survive, that means a fundamental change in urban development, use of energy etc.

6. Political, There are some other "minor problems" as ecologists, waste handling etc that are creating "minor "`problems in many democratic countries....as a matter of fact nuclear is growing only in non democratic countries.

So, there is not a clear picture of a long term scenario for uranium if used in classic reactors.

Well, you are becoming more aggressive to show how your magic black box works, however it could be more interesting to know your predictions now on something yet to happen like TSLA price in April or BABA price in June..or April.

I have been quite exceptic in your approach, and wrote about in the past, but lately i'm becoming more interested due the results of systems as Watson in IBM and the predictive tools of the NSA that are showing that billions of interactions of past events can create a credible prediction of a future event.

I assume you don't have a supercomputer as they have to do this, so I remain exceptic of your model....for the moment.