Saturday, July 02, 2005

THE Congressional canvass that declared Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to have won the presidency in 2004 showed her to have beaten Fernando Poe Jr. by 1,123,576 votes. A study published in Kasarinlan, a journal of UP's Third World Studies Center, says this could not be so. The paper, written by new media pioneer Roberto Verzola, asserts that Arroyo did not win the May elections by 1.1 million votes. It was a very close contest, Verzola says, with "the most probable results" ranging from a GMA win of around 156,000 votes or less, to an FPJ win of around 84,000 votes or less.

Verzola analyzed both the Namfrel tally—that used election returns (ERs)—and the parallel official count by Congress of provincial Certificates of Canvass (COCs). He dissected not only the numbers but how the tally itself progressed.

Verzola first made his findings public just over a month after the elections, in a shorter piece published June 20 last year in the Inquirer.

FIFTY-NINE percent of the respondents of a Social Weather Stations' telephone survey in Metro Manila believe President Arroyo told then Elections Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano to cheat in the May 10, 2004 elections and that she was not just trying "to protect her votes."

The June 28-30 survey, which the SWS said was "conducted on its own initiative as a public service" after Arroyo's June 27 admission that she had called a Comelec official, showed that only 29 percent believe she called to protect her votes.

Other highlights of the survey:

68 percent heard Arroyo's June 27 address over TV or radio, or read it in newspapers.

94 percent were aware of the Garci tapes.

32 percent had listened to the tapes, and 40 percent had either listened to or at least read a transcript of the tapes.

84 percent support the full airing of the tapes to the public.

Only 20 percent agreed with Arroyo's statement that the chapter on the Garci tapes should be closed; 77 percent wanted some things done, including an investigation (26 percent) and Arroyo's resignation (18 percent).

48 percent said Vice President Noli de Castro was capable of running the government in case Arroyo resigned or were removed.