Here is what the Feb. 5 races look like. The most recent (January) poll is always
included. If other polls were taken within a week of it, all of them are averaged,
weighted equally. A "+" in the pollster column indicates multiple polls were used.

Democrats

State

Clinton

Obama

Date

Pollster

Alabama

43

42

Jan 31

Insid+Surve+Capit

Arizona

41

26

Jan 24

Rocky+Arizo

California

47

36

Jan 29

Four polls

Colorado

32

34

Jan 23

Mason-Dixon

Connecticut

44

41

Jan 31

ARG-1+Surve+Rasmu

Georgia

36

52

Jan 30

Insider Advantage

Illinois

32

56

Jan 31

ARG-1+Rasmu

Massachusetts

50

35

Jan 30

Surve+Rasmu

Minnesota

40

33

Jan 27

U. of Minnesota

Missouri

48

44

Jan 31

SurveyUSA

New Jersey

50

38

Jan 31

Surve+Rasmu

New York

55

33

Jan 31

Surve+Gallu

Oklahoma

44

19

Jan 27

SurveyUSA

Tennessee

59

26

Jan 30

Insider Advantage

Republicans

State

McCain

Romney

Date

Pollster

Alabama

37

18

Jan 31

Four polls

Arizona

41

21

Jan 24

Rocky+Arizo

California

34

25

Jan 29

Five polls

Colorado

24

43

Jan 23

Mason-Dixon

Connecticut

46

27

Jan 31

ARG-1+Surve+Rasmu

Georgia

35

34

Jan 30

Insider Advantage

Illinois

41

30

Jan 31

ARG-1+Rasmu

Massachusetts

29

56

Jan 30

Surve+Rasmu

Minnesota

41

17

Jan 27

U. of Minnesota

Missouri

34

30

Jan 31

SurveyUSA

New Jersey

46

27

Jan 31

Surve+Rasmu

New York

49

18

Jan 31

Surve+Gallu

Oklahoma

37

19

Jan 27

SurveyUSA

Tennessee

33

18

Jan 30

Insider Advantage

Here is a run down of the megabuckage as of the end of 2007.
The last column is the net amount as of Dec. 31 (cash on hand minus outstanding debts).
Clinton
and Obama are running about even in fundraising, but he is spending it faster than she.
Each one has raised twice as much
as anyone else (Romney's total is hugely inflated because he loaned his
campaign $35 million of his own money, something it is not likely to pay back).
Ron Paul is the most frugal candidate: he has no debts.
In case you are REALLY into this kind of stuff, Mike Gravel outraised Alan
Keyes by more than 50%, $380,000 to $290,000.
If you have a child or grandchild who asks you "Can I be President when I grow up?"
The answer is: "Yes, but first you have to raise $100 million just to get through
the year before the election."
For the full story, see Open Secrets.

Candidates

Raised

Spent

Cash

Net

Hillary Clinton

$116

$77

$38

$33

Barack Obama

$102

$83

$19

$19

Ron Paul

$28

$20

$8

$8

Mike Huckabee

$9

$7

$2

$2

John McCain

$41

$38

$3

$-2

Mitt Romney

$88

$86

$2

$-33

(All amounts in millions of dollars.)

While Clinton and Obama had plenty of money in the bank at the end of
last year, their burn rates have been horrific. Obama raised another $32
million in January. Clinton has not announced her January haul yet.

Many prominent conservatives, including Ann Coulter, James Dobson, Rush Limbaugh, and Pat Toomey,
have a
visceral hatred
of John McCain, which is going to be a big problem if he is the nominee (see also
here
and
here).
All of them hate Hillary Clinton, too, and probably could learn to hate Barack Obama if he is
their opponent. One of the arguments that Republicans have been making about why they will win this
year is how Hillary Clinton will unite their party like never before. Unless John McCain divides it
like never before. Which hate is stronger? In any event, there is likely to be a lot of hate this year.

The U.S. economy
lost 17,000 jobs
in January. While the formal
definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP,
something economists understand, for most people, having to worry about losing your
job is a better indicator and tends to push people towards the Democrats.
A recession in an election year will focus everyone's attention on which party
can be better trusted to fix the economy. John McCain has (perhaps foolishly)
said he doesn't know much about the economy. He may come to regret that.
His great strength is national security and to the extent that gets put on the
back burner while people are worrying about their jobs, it hurts him. If there
is another terrorist attack, people will look to him for strength.

CNN is keeping track of the delegates for the
Democrats
and for the
Republicans.
Note that other sources may differ because CNN is trying to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and
Elected Officials) and other unpledged delegates.
When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary,
but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.
Here is CNN's count: