In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 2003 Cleveland Indians

OWAR: 41.6 OWS: 262 OPW%: .500 (81-81)

AWAR: 26.7 AWS: 204 APW%: .420 (68-94)

WARdiff: 14.9 WSdiff: 58

The “Original” 2003 Indians came within one game of the American League Central Division title as the White Sox held off the Tribe and the Twins. Jim Thome launched a League-leading 47 moon-shots and drove in a career-best 131 baserunners. He scored 111 runs, drew 111 bases on balls and earned his highest finish in the MVP balloting (fourth). Manny Ramirez scorched the opposition with a .325 BA, 37 wallops, 104 ribbies, 117 runs scored and a League-best OBP of .427. Richie Sexson (.272/45/124) matched his career-best in home runs and fell one short of his top RBI mark. Brian S. Giles suffered a drop in production from his previous four campaigns but still managed to belt 20 long balls while posting a .299 BA. “The Mayor” Sean Casey hit at a .291 clip but otherwise failed to deliver the power output expected from a first baseman. The lineup for the “Actual” 2003 Indians featured Milton Bradley (.321/10/56) and rookie outfielder Jody Gerut (.279/22/75).

Omar Vizquel (61st-SS) and Ellis Burks (77th-CF) placed in the top 100 player rankings according to “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract among members of the “Actuals” roster.

Original 2003 Indians Actual 2003 Indians

STARTING LINEUP

POS

OWAR

OWS

STARTING LINEUP

POS

AWAR

AWS

Manny Ramirez

LF

3.63

26.99

Matt Lawton

LF

1.07

9.65

Brian S. Giles

CF/LF

5.09

24.55

Milton Bradley

CF

4.21

18.53

Dustan Mohr

RF

0.52

7.06

Jody Gerut

RF

1.98

14.24

Richie Sexson

DH/1B

4.13

24.93

Travis Hafner

DH

0.8

7.4

Jim Thome

1B

4.56

28.67

Ben Broussard

1B

0.59

8.77

John McDonald

2B

-0.43

2.04

Brandon Phillips

2B

-1.22

4.28

Jhonny Peralta

SS

0.16

4.22

Omar Vizquel

SS

0.11

5.25

Russell Branyan

3B

0.44

5.82

Casey Blake

3B

0.51

11.48

Einar Diaz

C

0.63

4.75

Josh Bard

C

0.81

6.35

BENCH

POS

AWAR

AWS

BENCH

POS

AWAR

AWS

Sean Casey

1B

-0.27

14.88

Coco Crisp

CF

-0.17

6.51

David Bell

3B

0.12

4.42

Shane Spencer

RF

0.69

4.99

Kelly Stinnett

C

-0.07

3.49

Ellis Burks

DH

0.38

4.76

Victor Martinez

C

0.27

3.36

Jhonny Peralta

SS

0.16

4.22

Damian Jackson

2B

-0.44

1.85

Ryan Ludwick

RF

0.56

3.94

Marco Scutaro

2B

0.19

1.81

Victor Martinez

C

0.27

3.36

Julius Matos

3B

-0.14

0.6

Alex Escobar

RF

0.51

3.01

Zach Sorensen

2B

-0.28

0.32

Tim Laker

C

-0.1

2.71

Mike Edwards

DH

0.03

0.19

John McDonald

2B

-0.43

2.04

Herbert Perry

1B

-0.3

0.07

Angel Santos

2B

0.05

1.47

Mark Budzinski

CF

-0.09

0.03

Chris Magruder

LF

0.32

1.42

Mike Glavine

1B

-0.09

0.01

Ricky Gutierrez

SS

-0.08

0.79

Mitch Meluskey

–

-0.04

0

Greg LaRocca

3B

0.06

0.39

Zach Sorensen

2B

-0.28

0.32

Bill Selby

3B

-0.5

0.3

Karim Garcia

RF

-0.51

0.22

Bartolo Colon (15-13, 3.87) fashioned a WHIP of 1.198 and topped the American League with 9 complete games. Six-time All-Star lefthander C.C. Sabathia (13-9, 3.60) appeared in his first Mid-Summer Classic. David Riske notched 8 saves and a 0.964 WHIP along with a personal-best 2.29 ERA. Danys Baez (3.81, 25 SV) and Julian Tavarez (3.60, 11 SV) bolstered the relief corps.

Original 2003 Indians Actual 2003 Indians

ROTATION

POS

OWAR

OWS

ROTATION

POS

AWAR

AWS

Bartolo Colon

SP

5.23

17.34

CC Sabathia

SP

3.86

12.89

CC Sabathia

SP

3.86

12.89

Brian Anderson

SP

0.32

6.67

Jason Davis

SP

0.07

5.13

Jake Westbrook

SP

1.12

5.8

Danny Graves

SP

-0.4

3.4

Jason Davis

SP

0.07

5.13

Jason Stanford

SP

1.03

2.85

Billy Traber

SP

0.05

2.96

BULLPEN

POS

OWAR

OWS

BULLPEN

POS

OWAR

OWS

David Riske

RP

2.07

9.84

David Riske

RP

2.07

9.84

Julian Tavarez

RP

0.52

9.19

Danys Baez

RP

0.28

8.61

Danys Baez

RP

0.28

8.61

Jack Cressend

RP

0.95

4.05

Curt Leskanic

RP

1.72

8.09

Rafael Betancourt

RP

0.86

3.92

Paul Shuey

RP

0.55

6.62

Jason Boyd

RP

0.18

3.19

Steve Kline

RP

0.44

5.05

Jason Stanford

SP

1.03

2.85

Alan Embree

RP

0.68

4.91

Terry Mulholland

RP

-0.62

2.71

Mike Matthews

RP

-0.18

2.91

Cliff Lee

SP

0.42

2.69

Jaret Wright

RP

-1.84

1.31

Jose Santiago

RP

0.51

2.28

Travis Driskill

RP

-0.95

0.64

Dan Miceli

RP

0.38

1.54

Charles Nagy

RP

-0.11

0.17

Carl Sadler

RP

0.29

0.92

Brian Tallet

SP

-0.23

0.14

Ricardo Rodriguez

SP

-0.62

0.59

Mike Bacsik

SP

-0.86

0

David Lee

RP

-0.01

0.51

Ryan Drese

SP

-0.85

0

Jason Bere

SP

0.11

0.32

Tim Drew

SW

-0.58

0

Brian Tallet

SP

-0.23

0.14

Alex Herrera

RP

-0.35

0

Nick Bierbrodt

RP

-0.19

0

Albie Lopez

RP

-1.49

0

David Cortes

RP

-0.32

0

Robert Person

RP

-0.29

0

Chad Durbin

SP

-0.57

0

Rudy Seanez

RP

-0.17

0

Dave Elder

RP

-0.37

0

Matt White

RP

-0.93

0

Alex Herrera

RP

-0.35

0

Aaron Myette

RP

-0.5

0

Chad Paronto

RP

-0.44

0

Jason Phillips

RP

-0.24

0

Jerrod Riggan

RP

-0.19

0

Notable Transactions

Jim Thome

October 28, 2002: Granted Free Agency.

December 6, 2002: Signed as a Free Agent with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Manny Ramirez

October 27, 2000: Granted Free Agency.

December 19, 2000: Signed as a Free Agent with the Boston Red Sox.

Richie Sexson

July 28, 2000: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with a player to be named later, Kane Davis and Paul Rigdon to the Milwaukee Brewers for Jason Bere, Bob Wickman and Steve Woodard. The Cleveland Indians sent Marco Scutaro (August 30, 2000) to the Milwaukee Brewers to complete the trade.

Brian S. Giles

November 18, 1998: Traded by the Cleveland Indians to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Ricardo Rincon.

Bartolo Colon

June 27, 2002: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with Tim Drew to the Montreal Expos for Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Lee Stevens.

Sean Casey

March 30, 1998: Traded by the Cleveland Indians to the Cincinnati Reds for Dave Burba.

Honorable Mention

The 1941 Cleveland Indians

OWAR: 43.0 OWS: 267 OPW%: .545 (84-70)

AWAR: 34.9 AWS: 225 APW%: .487 (75-79)

WARdiff: 8.1 WSdiff: 42

Engaged in heated combat with the Red Sox and Yankees down the stretch in ’41, the Tribe emerged in third place, four games behind Boston. Thornton Lee (22-11, 2.37) topped the Junior Circuit in ERA, WHIP (1.165) and complete games (30) to merit his lone All-Star invitation. Bob Feller (25-13, 3.15) led the League in victories, starts (40), shutouts (6) and innings pitched (343). “Rapid Robert” paced the AL in strikeouts for the fourth consecutive season and placed third in the MVP voting. Jeff Heath (.340/24/123) established career-highs in base hits (199), triples (20), RBI and stolen bases (18) while making his first All-Star appearance. “Old Reliable” Tommy Henrich clubbed a career-best 31 round-trippers and registered 106 tallies. Ken Keltner rapped 31 doubles, 13 triples and 23 circuit clouts. “Old Shufflefoot” Lou Boudreau socked 45 two-baggers and scored 95 runs.

Derek Bain is a New Jersey native with a passion for baseball, statistics, computers and video games. He has written a number of articles for Fangraphs and Seamheads, and enjoys spending quality time with his family.