The world crisis is energy poverty, not climate change. For the elites like Boccaletti energy is plentiful, but most of the world is severely impoverished in energy. Focus on the real problem. Too many people are making an elite living in the climate change industry.

Giulio Boccaletti is right about environment being increasingly the game changer in geopolitics. The many crises that plague us are intricate. But "the environment is connected to all of them." In many cases we focus on the geopolitical nature of a conflict, while ignoring issues, like "environmental degradation and natural-resource insecurity" and scarcity that contribute to "geopolitical and social instability" across the globe.
It is a "mistake" that needs to be corrected, and it begins with "the fight to manage climate change" and make our planet a "healthy world." According to the UN High Commission on Refugees, "natural disasters have displaced more than 26 million people per year since 2008." Root-cause environmental and resource factors sparking violence will continue to destabilise many parts of the world without urgent reforms.
Before the Arab uprisings in 2011 Iraq, parts of Turkey, Jordan and Syria were all affected by the worst drought the Middle East had seen in decades. A severe drought in Syria forced more than 300,000 people to leave their homes, with thousands of farmers in drought stricken areas forced to sell their animals for slaughter, their crops perished. The agricultural sector employed the majority of Syrians, who moved elsewhere to find work, putting pressure on the urban areas.
The Middle East, North Africa, South Asia and South America are facing chronic water shortages because of decades of bad management, waste or overuse. Agriculture, rapid urbanisation, cooling of power plants, fracking of oil and gas wells all take water from a diminishing supply. Moreover climate change helps intensify dry spells. In some regions water scarcity leads to political instability and cross-border conflicts with neighbours over rivers, streams, lakes etc.
In the US farming in the Mississippi River Basin, one of the world's "breadbaskets" has contributed to run-off from animal waste and farm fertiliser, sparking concerns about water quality, presenting a danger to marine life and to the Gulf's lucrative fishing and shrimping industry. According to government report in China, farms cause more pollution than factories, with fertilisers and pesticides being the greater source of water contamination.
Fertilisers and pesticides have played an important role in enhancing productivity but improper use has had a grave impact on the environment, which "should be at the center of economic debates" due to "its role as the world’s single largest employer." The author says "almost a billion people, just under 20% of the world’s labor force, are formally employed in agriculture. Another billion or so are engaged in subsistence farming, and therefore don’t register in formal wage statistics."
It's time to embrace an "economic development" that goes hand in hand with a "population’s transition toward higher-productivity activities. This is particularly important at a time when increasingly sophisticated and integrated technology threatens to leapfrog an entire generation of workers in some countries. Efforts....must focus not only on training and education, but also on new models that allow countries to capitalize on their natural capital – the landscapes, watersheds, and seascapes – without depleting it."
It's true that "effective natural-resource management can support conflict resolution and sustainable economic development." If successful this will "boost the resilience of rural communities," enabling people to make a decent living, without leaving their homes and identity behind. But it requires "effective governance and planning, open dialogue, resource-sharing frameworks, and sufficient investment, including in skills training." In many parts of the world there is no appetite to provide for education. Instead of implementing family planning policies to curb population growth, and making citizens mindful of the use of resources, leaders often kick the can down the road.

I agree with your argument; the environment is becoming an increasingly critical determinant of geopolitical trends. As both you and Boccaletti point out, the intensification of environmental problems we are seeing today cannot be disconnected from current refugee crises and political instability. Despite its monumental role in affecting human migration patterns, there is not nearly enough consideration given to the importance drought, natural disasters, and the other effects of human induced climate change on geopolitics. For example, the term "climate refugee" is still not even recognized be the UN. If we are to achieve sustainable advancement and stability across the globe, much more consideration needs to be given these root causes and leaders must start to see people as a part of their ecosystem, not just view nature as a resource to exploit.

@ j. von Hettlingen I agree with your take; the environment has indeed become a critical determinant of geopolitical patterns. As both you and Boccaletti point out, the intensifying effects of climate change and continuing environmental degradation will shape migration movements and political conflicts on a scale never seen before. Unfortunately, this is reality is rarely given enough credit in discussions of current refugee crises and political instability around the globe. In response to your point about taking advantage of natural capital, I believe efforts to do this in a sustainable fashion need to be dramatically stepped up. The environment is an all encompassing backdrop for global societies and until humans see themselves as a part of it and don't just view nature as a resource for us to exploit will we be able to actually achieve the kind of advancement and stability leaders now seem to strive for only in name.

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