The Downtrodden Converge as Teams On the Upswing

By MIKE TANIER

Published: October 16, 2011

49ers (4-1) at Lions (5-0)

1 p.m. Line: Lions by 4

As surprise contenders go, the Lions are hardly surprising. They won their final four games last year. They lost many close games in unusual ways, like when Calvin Johnson had a game-winning touchdown against the Bears taken away essentially because he
was too blas?bout it. Last year's top draft pick, Ndamukong Suh, quickly developed into one of the best defenders in the league, and three long years have passed since Matt Millen gave one of his toughness-and-attitude
speeches. Detroit was a popular off-season sleeper pick for a wild-card berth, though it is still jarring to see the Lions at 5-0 after a decade of paper bag jokes.

San Francisco is much more surprising. The 49ers made few roster changes, but Jim Harbaugh, their new coach, is getting more from his players by asking for less, or more precisely, by asking less contentiously. Alex Smith has become an efficient game
manager after five long seasons of having to justify his existence with every throw. Tight end Vernon Davis is playing to his potential without anyone harping on him about playing to his potential. Cornerback Carlos
Rogers, who had hands like elbows when he was with the Redskins, has three interceptions, and the Niners have eight over all. It took a West Coast offense-minded coach like Harbaugh to finally turn the 49ers into
a defense-and-ball-control team.

The Lions have the edge in talent, but the 49ers are more rested, less penalty prone, better on special teams and less reliant on one player (Johnson) to provide most of their offense. They also have a clearer path to the postseason, being in the easiest
division this side of the Football Championship Subdivision. We may be talking about a rematch in January; if that happens, no one should be surprised.

Pick: 49ers Browns (2-2) at Raiders (3-2)

4:05 p.m. Line: Raiders by 6 1/2

Browns running back Peyton Hillis was criticized last week for admitting that he sought the advice of his agent before sitting out Cleveland's Week 4 loss to the Titans with strep throat. Hillis is seeking a contract extension, and despite reports
of a high fever before kickoff, some believe that his agent's priorities may not have been 100 percent in line with the needs of the Browns, or with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines.

To help Hillis make future health decisions, here are the responses he can expect when seeking sore throat advice from several typical sources. Mom: ''Aw, sweetie, you get right under the covers while I fix you some chicken soup.''
Grandpa: ''In my day, we crawled to work in the asbestos mines with two broken legs. Get on the field!'' Ethel from human resources: ''This day counts against your 10-day 'sick
bank,' which does not roll over to the next calendar year.'' Agent: ''You are sick? Sorry to commission that. Make sure you take two commissions and get some commission.'' Colt
McCoy: ''No, I understand. I'll just -- sheesh -- throw passes to Brian Robiskie or something.'' Doctor: ''It sounds over the phone like it's viral. I cannot do anything.
Please, no, don't schedule a visit. I am too busy to deal with sick people.''

Hillis will play on Sunday. Next season, he will be on the cover of the rerelease of the video game Spore.

Pick: Raiders

Texans (3-2) at Ravens (3-1)

4:05 p.m. Line: Ravens by 7 1/2

The former Ravens receiver Derrick Mason was traded to Houston last week, meaning that he gets to play his second ''Ravens revenge'' game in less than a month. Mason is 37, has slowed considerably in recent years and did not do anything
to endear himself to the Jets, a team that asks for little in the way of endearment. We would suspect that the Texans signed Mason to learn the secrets of Baltimore's offense, but that offense (run, run, long
pass, run, run, long pass) has no secrets.

The poor Texans can never manage to get any traction as contenders. Just when things were going well, receiver Andre Johnson injured his hamstring, then the pass rusher Mario Williams was lost for the year with a pectoral injury. These are problems a
short, aging, discontented wide receiver cannot solve, but if the Texans can get through this week without losing one of their few remaining stars, they can look forward to a Titans-Jaguars-Browns run that can give
them command of the A.F.C. South.

Pick: Ravens

Eagles (1-4) at Redskins (3-1)

1 p.m. Line: Eagles by 1 1/2

Last season, when Philadelphia was much more likely to humiliate than be humiliated, the Eagles delivered an epic 59-28 beating to the Redskins on ''Monday Night Football,'' exposing the folly of Washington's never-ending quest
to quick-fix its roster by spending outrageous sums of money on overrated free agents who do not fit the team's system.

If this were a 1980s action movie, the villain (played by Alan Rickman) would arch his eyebrow and intone, ''It seems the predator has now become the prey.'' And you would roll your eyes, because even the sugared-up 12-year-olds in
the audience spotted the obvious.

Pick: Redskins

Cowboys (2-2) at Patriots (4-1)

4:15 p.m. Line: Patriots by 7

In an effort to teach Tony Romo and others to make better decisions in clutch situations at the end of close games, the Cowboys installed working scoreboards at their Valley Ranch practice facilities. All teams simulate down-and-distance conditions during
practices (training quarterbacks to throw past the first-down marker on third-and-long or to avoid the middle of the field when out of timeouts in the final minute, for example), but Dallas thought Romo and Company
needed more tangible visual cues. ''We think it's valuable in recreating and simulating a game when you have that scoreboard,'' Coach Jason Garrett said. ''You have the time that
everybody can see, and you understand what the situation is as concretely as possible.'' The scoreboard replaces the Poky Little Puppy Football Facts Flashcards from which Romo previously learned game
management.

Pick: Patriots

Panthers (1-4) at Falcons (2-3)

1 p.m. Line: Falcons by 4

Matt Ryan is just 2 of 18 with three interceptions on passes that travel more than 20 yards in the air. Only three of those passes, none of them completions, were thrown to his top receiver, Roddy White. Twelve were thrown to the rookie Julio Jones, an
exciting young player who is not ready to assume the role of sole deep receiving threat, and should not have to. The Falcons get hung up on these narrowly defined roles: White as possession receiver, Michael Turner
as workhorse back, left tackle Sam Baker as perennial disappointment, punter Matt Bosher as the mistake they quietly refuse to acknowledge. Atlanta beat Carolina, 31-10, in both meetings last season, but the Panthers
have broken their mold. The Falcons must now break theirs.

Pick: Falcons

Rams (0-4) at Packers (5-0)

1 p.m. Line: Packers by 15

The Rams have been outscored this season, 113-46, and they face the Packers without three of their top cornerbacks: Bradley Fletcher joined Ron Bartell and Jerome Murphy on injured reserve when he tore an anterior cruciate ligament during a bye-week practice.

Game 6 of baseball's National League Championship Series between the Cardinals and the Brewers is scheduled for 4:05 Eastern. Fans in Green Bay will enjoy a riveting doubleheader. Fans in St. Louis are advised to sleep late.

Pick: Packers

Bills (4-1) at Giants (3-2)

1 p.m. Line: Giants by 3

The Olympic gold-medal-winning softball pitcher Jennie Finch worked out with the Giants last week. Finch, who was at the team's practice facility to prepare for the New York City Marathon, wore a Brandon Jacobs jersey, attempted three field goals
(making one) and caught some passes. She became the first person this year to make it through an entire Giants practice without being injured.

The first-round pick Prince Amukamara also practiced for the first time since August, running some special-teams drills. But, you know, Jennie Finch was there.

Pick: Bills

Colts (0-5) at Bengals (3-2)

1 p.m. Line: Bengals by 7

This game represents the seventh consecutive home blackout for the Bengals, so local fans may not even know what the current, rebuilt roster looks like. To help our friends in Cincinnati visualize the action while listening to the radio, allow us to paint
a picture with words. 1.) The promising rookie quarterback Andy Dalton looks a lot like Speedy the Alka Seltzer tablet. 2.) The rookie receiver A. J. Green is a dead ringer for the former Bengals receiver Eddie
Brown. If you are too young to remember Eddie Brown, drop us an e-mail: we are really reaching out to your demographic. 3.) Colts quarterback Curtis Painter looks like the young Gregg Allman and throws like the
current Dickey Betts. 4.) Colts running back Joseph Addai is not expected to play, so feel free to imagine the Hamburglar in the Indianapolis backfield behind Painter.

Pick: Bengals

Saints (4-1) at Bucs (3-2)

4:15 p.m. Line: Saints by 4 1/2

New Orleans has so many offensive threats that we can exhaust our word count just listing them. Mark Ingram. Darren Sproles. Pierre Thomas. Marques Colston. Lance Moore. Devery Henderson. Robert Meacham. Jimmy Graham. The arrival/emergence of Ingram,
Sproles and Graham have made the Saints more exciting and more complicated: when a player like Henderson has one catch in two games, you are tempted to think something was wrong with him, when actually, the Saints
would have to control the clock for about 80 minutes to get everyone the playing time he deserves.

And then there is Jed Collins, the little-known fullback who has scored two touchdowns despite being surrounded by more likely goal-line options. You want to hate Collins for hurting your fantasy team, but it is impossible to hate anyone named Jed.

Pick: Saints

Jaguars (1-4) at Steelers (3-2)

1 p.m. Line: Steelers by 12

If you have waited a football lifetime to read the phrase ''disgruntled punter,'' you are in luck: Jacksonville released the disgruntled punter Matt Turk on Wednesday after Turk averaged just 37.7 yards a punt, including 22- and 23-yarders,
in a 30-20 loss to the Bengals. ''I want to be where I am wanted,'' said Turk, who was replaced by Nick Harris. Turk, a 13-year veteran, thought the team was trying to make him a directional
punter, even though his specialty is hang time. This is what passes for an interesting Jaguars story.

Pick: Steelers

Vikings (1-4) at Bears (2-3)

8:20 p.m. Line: Bears by 3

Bears penalties, a field guide: 1.) False start, offensive tackle. Occurs at least every other drive. Caused by J'Marcus Webb and Frank Omiyale not being good players. 2.) False start, tight end. Occurs once per game. Caused by the tight end trying
to get a jump on helping Webb and Omiyale, who are not good players. 3.) Roughing the passer, opponent. Occurs twice per game. The Bears' most consistently successful offensive play. Caused at times by Jay
Cutler's acting skills (he is the Philip Seymour Hoffman of clutching his head after being hit in the forearm), but also by the tight ends' inability to successfully help Webb and Omiyale, who are not
good players. 4.) Holding, offensive tackle. Occurs twice per game. Often declined because the defense got the sack anyway.

Pick: Vikings Dolphins (0-4) at Jets (2-3)

Monday, 8:30 p.m. Line: Jets by 7

The former Jake Delhomme stunt double Matt Moore takes over for the injured Chad Henne at quarterback for the listless, directionless Dolphins. Every time a quarterback of Moore's caliber or worse takes over a team this season, a loud contingent
of fans begins rooting for that team to start losing games so it can draft the Stanford superstar Andrew Luck with the first overall pick.

In a few weeks, Luck will graduate from being the next John Elway to the next Winston Churchill, and fans in Miami, Indianapolis and elsewhere will be trying to figure out if their favorite team can somehow finish with a record of negative-1 and 17.

Pick: Jets

Times are Eastern. Picks do not reflect the betting line.

PHOTOS: The Cowboys are trying to help quarterback Tony Romo and others make late-game decisions. (PHOTOGRAPH BY RONALD MARTINEZ/GETTY IMAGES); Andy Dalton; Curtis Painter; Quarterback Alex Smith, left, has the 49ers on the move, and Calvin Johnson is
a major scoring threat for the Lions. (PHOTOGRAPHS BY EZRA SHAW/GETTY IMAGES; CARLOS OSORIO/ASSOCIATED PRESS)