Republican poll: Public opposed to a government shutdown to defund ObamaCare, including Republicans

posted at 5:51 pm on August 22, 2013 by Allahpundit

Interesting, if not surprising, although I’m not sure who the target audience is. The “defund ObamaCare” initiative is well into litmus-test territory by now, thanks to the number of tea-party heavy hitters in favor and the number of dreaded RINOs opposed. This new data will be dismissed as an establishment GOP effort to scare Rand Paul and Ted Cruz into backing down, even though they have zero incentive to do so. If they can’t get 41 Republican votes in the Senate, they’ll shrug it off and say they were on the side of the angels. Whatever the outcome, when it’s all over, they’ll be more popular on the right than they were before.

The real audience here isn’t really Paul and Cruz, of course, but Senate Republicans who plan to vote no and need some rhetorical ammo in defending their vote.

In a national survey of 1,000 registered voters done July 31 and August 1, the question, from pollster David Winston, said, “Some members of Congress have proposed shutting down the government as a way to defund the president’s health care law” and asked respondents whether they favored or opposed that plan.

Among Republicans who called themselves conservative, those who said they are very conservative favored shutdown by 63 percent to 27 percent, while those who said they are somewhat conservative opposed shutdown by 62 percent to 31 percent. Overall, Republicans who call themselves conservative were evenly split on the issue, 46 percent to 46 percent…

Winston also did a generic ballot test. Among people who say at this point that they plan to vote for the Republican candidate in 2014 — regardless of who it is — 51 percent said they opposed a shutdown, while 40 percent favored it. “What has to be concerning here is the fact that more than half the people who are presently voting for a Republican oppose this idea,” Winston told me. “If you’re concerned about what it might look like in terms of a general election, if half the voters who say they are going to vote for a Republican candidate oppose this, then you are creating a conflict for them to vote for a Republican candidate.”

Mirror image results between the “very conservative” and “somewhat conservative,” just as you’d expect from a litmus test. But wait — hasn’t Rand Paul said specifically that he doesn’t want a shutdown? Indeed he has — which is proof enough that even tea partiers are worried about the political fallout if it happened. The question is, is there an endgame here realistically where Obama blinks and agrees to defund before it comes to a shutdown (or at least shortly after one begins)? Realistically, no, says David Freddoso:

If you think you can get the Democratic Senate to pass (and Obama to sign) a bill that funds the government while defunding Obama’s absolute top priority without first going through a prolonged government shutdown — and we’re talking weeks or months here, not days — then you’re just not being serious. This has no chance of success unless you shut the government down for a very long time.

The guy already lost the House so that he could get Obamacare — do you really think he’s going to cry uncle one week into a few embassy closures? Obama cries uncle only when tens of thousands of government employees start having their homes foreclosed because they’re not being paid…

The defund-or-shutdown effort — and that’s what it is — represents a threat, something along the lines of: “Do what I say, or I’ll shoot myself in the leg.” I’m all for making threats, using leverage, and risking elections to get good governance, but this is not an effective tactic, because it’s in the other person’s interest to let you shoot yourself. Obama would welcome a shutdown — why should he come to the table to stop Republicans from wounding themselves for nothing?

You’ve got three possible outcomes. One: O caves relatively quickly and agrees to defund. That’s not going to happen, not only as a matter of pride in his signature legislation but as a matter of necessity. He needs the health-insurance exchanges to begin on time. Public dependency on federal subsidies is key to the law’s long-term prognosis. Agreeing to delay the whole project gives Republicans their only real chance of killing the law before it’s implemented. He’d rather have the lights go off than do that. Two: The GOP comes around to Cruz’s and Paul’s position, leaving O and Republicans deadlocked. The government shuts down and the public waits to see who’ll blink first. The media lights up with White House talking points about Republicans risking damage to the economy in order to deny health-care coverage to the middle class, yadda yadda — you know how it goes. Obama, being a lame-duck whose eye is on his legacy, has little incentive to blink. Aspiring GOP presidential candidates do. Eventually some face-saving compromise is reached to end the shutdown, possibly a delay of some O-Care provisions that aren’t related to the exchanges, but the law is funded and, if you believe the Winston poll, Republicans are probably damaged. Three: The “defund ObamaCare” effort fails to draw 41 Republican votes for a filibuster. Cruz and Paul cite it as ultimate proof of RINOism run rampant in Washington. Paul, for one, likely also mentions that certain Republican governors with their eye on 2016 actually enabled ObamaCare by accepting the law’s Medicaid expansion while he and tea partiers were busy trying to kill the damned thing. In the next round of presidential polls, he and Cruz both see their numbers rise.

In short, scenario one is a nonstarter, scenario two hurts the party while failing to accomplish its objective, and scenario three works out pretty well for everyone. Which do you think is likeliest?

Blowback

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Sorry to give a predictable response, but this reeks of an establishment-controlled poll done solely to impose its will on the GOP masses. Unfortunately, it’ll probably succeed since the media will run with it.

It’s always been about the messaging game and the Defund Crowd is failing…

Where are the commercials? Where are the press conferences, radio and TV appearances? Why aren’t the defund crowd getting out there and naming names of those who are backtracking on their 2010 commitment to repeal it?

The government shuts down every weekend. Soldiers and grandma still get paid. Only non essential gov services close. But we are the land of the stupid so we believe any lie that comes out of this criminal administration.

I think it is high time all the power of the Federal Government be returned to the states. It is time to wind down the forced association of america and give the states the opportunity to create a new bond. Those that want to go it alone, or those that want to create a new union.

I do not Consent, I have not for a long time.

The constitution is defunct. We the People have no power. The states have no power. Only the Federal Government has power.

Actually, what will happen is that, with the employer mandate delayed, and the individual mandate firmly in place, 100′s of 1000′s of people who have been dumped from their employer-based plans and into the individual market will start to panic when they find out that working exchanges have not been set up for them by Republican governors trying to score points with the base, and that they cannot purchase affordable insurance. The national media will fill with stories of how smoothly the exchanges are working in blue states. Much of the gains from 2010 will be lost as Republican governorships switch to Democrat, and the Republicans lose the House.

The Democrats will win, and the Tea Party will have done their work for them.

The only way we’re going to dislodge Obamacare is when Democrats start losing elections for supporting it, and they’re only going to start losing elections when voters get it good and hard. So, I say we let them put the gun to their heads and implement it.

Next best thing: we elect a GOP president in 2016 and we get a 4-8 year respite through EO waivers if his/her election doesn’t turn the tide for outright repeal.

Actually, what will happen is that, with the employer mandate delayed, and the individual mandate firmly in place, 100′s of 1000′s of people who have been dumped from their employer-based plans and into the individual market will start to panic when they find out that working exchanges have not been set up for them by Republican governors trying to score points with the base, and that they cannot purchase affordable insurance. The national media will fill with stories of how smoothly the exchanges are working in blue states. Much of the gains from 2010 will be lost as Republican governorships switch to Democrat, and the Republicans lose the House.

The Democrats will win, and the Tea Party will have done their work for them.

Two: The GOP comes around to Cruz’s and Paul’s position, leaving O and Republicans deadlocked. The government shuts down and the public waits to see who’ll blink first. The media lights up with White House talking points about Republicans risking damage to the economy in order to deny health-care coverage to the middle class, yadda yadda — you know how it goes.
+++++++++++++++++++

Yeah, just like it hurt conservatives so much when the Sequester went through and caused so much damage/disruption to the country… oh wait…

Republican poll: Public opposed to a government shutdown to defund ObamaCare, including Republicans

This is why they should pass a continuing resolution without Obamacare funding — work to define the narrative that the GOP is willing to fund the government, but that Democrats are willing to shut it down over not getting Obamacare.

A central Kentucky theater owner who trained pilots during the Vietnam War is refusing to show the nation’s top movie, “The Butler” because one of the stars is Jane Fonda who was an outspoken opponent of the conflict.

I guess we have the battle of the polls. 65% of the people don’t want Obamacare yet they don’t want to close down the government to get there. “Houston we have a problem.”

This could have been dealt with 2 years ago, it could have been dealt with 6 months ago instead, we have John Boehner and the Republicans waiting until the last minute once again. They’ve been doing this for over 2 years and each time it hasn’t ended up well for them. THe Democrats cried the blues about the mean Republicans while being on the receiving end of a CR that increased spending. The Debt has gone up since the Republicans took over the debt has gone up over 2 trillion dollars. Does anyone believe this is leadership?

This has to be dealt with through the budget process and, until the Republicans force that to happen, the Democrats win.

“Some members of Congress have proposed shutting down the government as a way to defund the president’s health care law” and asked respondents whether they favored or opposed that plan.

Push poll. How about they ask – Some members of congress want to fund the government, but not Obamacare. Do you favor or oppose democrats shutting down government in order to fund the president’s health care law?

Jane Fonda and her politician husband at the time weren’t mere critics of the US war in Vietnam. Everyone has the right to voice their opinion.

But they sided with the Viet Cong Communists, went over there for photo ops and propagandized hatred directed at our “baby killer” troops who were, for the most part, DRAFTED into that war, not volunteers.

As for not showing a movie, aside from owner’s right to conduct his own business, financially The Butler may cost more to show than he’s willing to pay for “rights”.

And as per usual 75% of those present in the thread called me as stupid as could be.

Genuine on August 22, 2013 at 6:32 PM

Well, I don’t see how this changes anything about your stupidity. Or the GOP’s stupidity in their inability to avoid using the Democrat premises or narratives to push their statism. Oh wait. They’re statist too. Which is why it doesn’t matter. Agree with this strategy or not, at least they could try to make it the least damaging to the GOP as possible if it were to occur. But that’s not their endgame here. The endgame is that they are sabotaging it as even a possibility because they don’t want to stop Obamacare.

And as per usual 75% of those present in the thread called me as stupid as could be.

Genuine on August 22, 2013 at 6:32 PM

I didn’t call you full of shit, but I will now. You make the case to the American people that the DEMOCRATS are the one shutting down the government because they want to force Obamacare on the people and see how they do…

One big a$$ collapse is coming that will make a shut down look like a walk in the park.

I would love a complete shutdown. I would welcome one and top it off with a civil meltdown. It’s coming whether we like it or not and I can’t stand the anticipation and manipulation of the timing. Those who pull the strings are simply waiting for the right time.

Why not call their bluff and bring on the big one before they have all their ducks in a row. And part of that is gun confiscation… Think about that one.

Genuine on August 22, 2013 at 6:32 PM
I wonder why?
Bmore on August 22, 2013 at 6:33 PM

Eh, not really. It’s pretty obvious and already understood by most that many here can’t handle any truths that deviate from the world they wish for, if it doesn’t conform to the AM radio hard core “conservative” doctrine it just can’t be real!!!

Thumping your chest over one questionable poll? O-care can barely get 40% approval even now. The majority wants it dead.

ddrintn on August 22, 2013 at 6:39 PM

It’s not really questionable. But the question is explicitly set up to get the answer that they want. People don’t want the government shut down. So, blame it on Obama instead. Or just shut up. Or give an alternative strategy because – as AP points out – this strategy is not likely to succeed in stopping Obamacare.

I think we should take a poll of Hot Air commentators to see how much they are as big a sucker for polls as AP is.
I’m sure AP will be more than happy to arrange it.
NullUnit60 on August 22, 2013 at 6:36 PM

Right, because not trusting even the general averages of multiple polls turned out so well in recent memory, eh?

Thumping your chest over one questionable poll? O-care can barely get 40% approval even now. The majority wants it dead.
ddrintn on August 22, 2013 at 6:39 PM

No doubt, a majority are indeed anywhere from questioning, to distrustful, to down right “last-stand” aggressively against it in the small hardcore “conservative” side.

But a majority who would rather be rid of it above all else or at any cost? THAT doesn’t exist. People want a functioning government. Even if they dislike or are distrustful of a still as of yet implemented law, the majority are not so strongly for getting rid of it that they want to see another government shutdown fight for it.

There’s a difference between “disagrees with the law” and “willing to further tear down the governments functionality in order to get rid of it”.

That’s what you guys don’t seem to understand. YOU actually put more stock in polls than you let on. It’s just the ones that say what you like. That give you the opportunity to pretend that it means that the whole country is just like you and that destroying anything and everything Barack Obama is worth any and all costs or reprecussions.

But have at it if you like. I like opportunities to rub I told you so’s in your faces since you treat me and anyone else who speaks a little common sense like I couldn’t possibly understand what I’m talking about and I’m just as stupid as can be for not take a big bite out of the same lure’s you all have hanging out of your cheeks.

Liberals of the right. Carrying the water of the fisherman reeling you into the boat. Fools.

They have no desire or even real belief defunding Obamacare will ever actually happen. It’s just about giving you a new reason to not let them go.

The strategy of Boehner and his ilk appears to be to make sure that passing a CR without O-Care funding will do maximum damage to the GOP. And then argue that the GOP cannot possibly do it. Then, after O-Care is funded, sit back and do nothing.

Agree with the strategy or not (I don’t know that I do, but I sure don’t see anyone offering any alternatives), it does not make sense for the GOP to actively sabotage it and make sure that it inflicts maximum damage on their party. It really makes you question whose side these clowns are on.

But a majority who would rather be rid of it above all else or at any cost? THAT doesn’t exist. People want a functioning government. Even if they dislike or are distrustful of a still as of yet implemented law, the majority are not so strongly for getting rid of it that they want to see another government shutdown fight for it.

Genuine on August 22, 2013 at 6:53 PM

Who cares, anyway? If the government is shut down, and the GOP loses the next few cycles, so be it. Mission would be accomplished if O-care is gone.

Show me a poll showing O-care’s popularity.
ddrintn on August 22, 2013 at 6:49 PM

I don’t have to. You can read them yourselves. And I’ve yet to claim it was a popular law.

What I HAVE stated is “unpopular by majority” does not equal “unpopular to the degree that we will accept any and all costs, by any means necessary, and above all else to get rid of it by majority”.

But go on thinking you have majority support for ANOTHER government shutdown fight over something that’s never gonna happen even in the event that the entire republican members of house got behind it and stood behind it. Hell even if it SOMEHOW passed the senate as well, which it won’t.

The ONLY thing this is about is theater. Feeding time. Red meat for you to redress some street cred for the people who’ve tricked you into carrying their water.

Fight over things that don’t matter and will never happen. Do exactly what business, special interests, and power control strategies dictate anytime it does matter.

And you just keep swimming along, eating every word. A sort of self punishment syndrome where you can’t seem to learn what’s happening right the **** in front of you.

I hate the ACA as much as anyone does, but the idea that r’s have the strength to “defund” it when the president and Senate D’s are committed to implementing it is sheer fantasy.

This whole “Defund Obamacare” nonsense is little more than a fundraising tactic, and a pretty cynical one. Those behind it know that it cannot succeed, for the same reason that repealing the law won’t happen — there aren’t the votes for it.

There is no endgame here that results in Obamacare not being funded. This all posturing.

I don’t have to. You can read them yourselves. And I’ve yet to claim it was a popular law.

Genuine on August 22, 2013 at 7:01 PM

Yes, I can. You see, the Dems thought it was worth it to pass the monstrosity AT ALL COSTS. They didn’t really care to lose the 2010 cycle. That’s where the Dems win and the Reps lose. They’re too worried about the opinions of libs like you who paint themselves as some sort of “mainstream” while realistically inhabiting the 15% fringe. Kill O-care, whatever the cost.

Yes, I can. You see, the Dems thought it was worth it to pass the monstrosity AT ALL COSTS. They didn’t really care to lose the 2010 cycle. That’s where the Dems win and the Reps lose. They’re too worried about the opinions of libs like you who paint themselves as some sort of “mainstream” while realistically inhabiting the 15% fringe. Kill O-care, whatever the cost.
ddrintn on August 22, 2013 at 7:05 PM

See, here’s the flaw in that logic.

The dem’s had a strong majority in the house, a super majority in the senate, and the presidency.

They could afford to lose a little.

Republicans hold the house majority.

They can’t actually afford to lose any. Or else what comes AFTER Obamacare… Is worse. Because republicans lost whatever power the DID have trying to destroy a merely unpopular law, at any and all costs, without having a single tangible alternative.

All that needs to be done is to put commercials out there saying that Obama and the Democrats want to shut the government down because they want to continue to shove Obamacare down the public’s throat while making themselves exempt from the consequences.

That’s it. 30 seconds shown as widely as possible. Framing it as Republicans shutting down the gov’t is a joke. The House has passed bills all year that the Senate won’t even consider.

^ But shutting the government down to do it won’t be necessary. O-care is self-destructing anyway. And THEN the Genuines of the world will be wagging their fingers at “conservatives” merely for wishing O-care to be gone.

The dem’s had a strong majority in the house, a super majority in the senate, and the presidency.

They could afford to lose a little.

Republicans hold the house majority.

Genuine on August 22, 2013 at 7:08 PM

Which the GOP held for several years while doing very little. Of COURSE the Dems could afford to lose a little, since they are more disciplined in pursuing their agenda, whereas the GOP is more concerned with having people like you say good things about them. the Dems couldn’t care less.

If you’re saying a threatened shutdown of government is a stupid idea that will accomplish nothing, I have to agree. The whole notion is lame-brained and shouldn’t even be a subject of consideration. It makes me think if the, “I’ll take my toys and go home,” kind of sandbox thinking, and we’re supposedly represented by adults. The idea, even if only a hollow threat, shows no care, crafting, creativity, or serious consideration.

The House can either vote on the single issue to de-fund or, as someone else said, just keep it in the budget and let Reid’s Senate defend it in conference committee.

Anything else is a waste of time, energy, and political capital that the Pubs need right now most especially from the party’s own base.

No Genuine, you have it exactly wrong.
All that needs to be done is to put commercials out there saying that Obama and the Democrats want to shut the government down because they want to continue to shove Obamacare down the public’s throat while making themselves exempt from the consequences.
That’s it. 30 seconds shown as widely as possible. Framing it as Republicans shutting down the gov’t is a joke. The House has passed bills all year that the Senate won’t even consider.
Grow up
njrob on August 22, 2013 at 7:09 PM

Alright, no here’s the problem with THAT logic.

It won’t work. The republican party has spent 5 years threatening government shutdowns and pushing that way. Furthermore, in this instance the republican house will have to cast the first stone of the fight.

You can’t take the first swing and then expect people to believe its the other guys fault cause he didn’t just sit back down when you punched him.

Republicans congressional approval ratings are lower even that the dismal ratings of congress itself.

Your whole strategy is to attempt to play a messeging game where the party picks a fight then tries to blame the other guy for it, when the cards in THAT particular deck have already been played and lost multiple times in the last few years.

Seriously, how do you not get this?

I mean, it’s not even MEANT to work to them. It’s meant to give Cruz, Rubio, and whoever else who wants a little primary face time or needs a little conservative street cred re-upping a chance to get you back to carrying their water.

While risking absolutely nothing in reality. Because not only won’t it work if they REALLY tried it. But they’ll cave as soon as they feel they’ve put on an adequate show anyway.

Really. This is like act 32 in the same effing play we’ve all been watching for years but yet you still can’t figure it out.

If you’re saying a threatened shutdown of government is a stupid idea that will accomplish nothing, I have to agree. The whole notion is lame-brained and shouldn’t even be a subject of consideration. It makes me think if the, “I’ll take my toys and go home,” kind of sandbox thinking, and we’re supposedly represented by adults. The idea, even if only a hollow threat, shows no care, crafting, creativity, or serious consideration.
The House can either vote on the single issue to de-fund or, as someone else said, just keep it in the budget and let Reid’s Senate defend it in conference committee.
Anything else is a waste of time, energy, and political capital that the Pubs need right now most especially from the party’s own base.
Liam on August 22, 2013 at 7:12 PM

Look at that! 2 points to Liam for a bit of reasoned adult free thinking.

What “logic”. “It won’t work because the GOP will cave anyway, which they SHOULD do because it won’t work!!”
That, folks, is why the GOP is a constant minority party.
ddrintn on August 22, 2013 at 7:20 PM

It helps if you consider the whole post and not just the lines you think you can twist.

It won’t work because even if every single republican DID hold the line. It still won’t pass the senate. And the president still won’t sign it.

THEY know this, which is why they’ll give up after putting on an adequate show, a show for YOU. That you’re just chomping at the bit to see the next act in.

Who the f*ck CARES? Did Pelosi care about her own approval ratings and those of her party when ACA was shoved down our throats? No.
ddrintn on August 22, 2013 at 7:22 PM

Again, SHE didn’t have to. THEY held a strong majority in the house, a SUPERMAJORITY in the Senate, AND the Presidency. They could afford to lose a little as a result.

Can we?

What are you gonna do if you say, “To hell with what people think, pelosi didn’t when they held every.single.lever.of.power.” And…. We lose proportionally to how they lost. How are you gonna feel about your hopeless and pointless theatrical effort to defund Obamacare when 2016 comes around and Pelosi’s back in her seat, the dem’s still have a senate majority, and again hold the presidency?

Will it be worth it then?

The democrats could AFFORD to lose a cycle. The Republicans, only holding a single body of congress and having a tough time getting anything through even with the Hastert rule, do not.

But I’m sure you disagree.

To hell with them all!! By any means necessary!!! Even if it means dem control AGAIN after it fails like its destined to from the start!!! Go red team go!!! Cruz 2016!!

Republicans congressional approval ratings are lower even that the dismal ratings of congress itself.

Genuine on August 22, 2013 at 7:18 PM

By the way, that clearly demonstrates the overwhelming popularity of the “pragmatic”, accommodating tack that you actually are promoting, right? I mean, there hasn’t been any REAL push over the past three years on the part of the congressional GOP to change ANYthing.