Evening Report (VIP) -- February 20, 2014

Placements category the wildcard for Cattle on Feed Report... Traders expect Friday afternoon's Cattle on Feed Report to show On Feed at 96%, Placements at 102.6% and Marketings at 95.4% of year-ago levels. The Placements category is the wildcard, as expectations ahead of the report range from 95.7% to 107.1% of year-ago.

Report expectations

Avg. Trade Guess

Range

% of year-ago levels

On Feed

96.0

94.8-99.0

Placements

102.6

95.7-107.1

Marketings

95.4

93.2-98.0

Barring a complete surprise, tomorrow's report will mark the 17th straight month the On Feed category came in smaller than the previous year.

USDA's Glauber updates acreage pegs... U.S. corn plantings are expected at 92 million acres and soybean plantings at 79.5 million acres, according to figures presented by USDA Chief Economist Joe Glauber at the 90th USDA Annual Outlook Forum.

"Corn and soybean acreage is expected to total 171.5 million acres, about 400,000 less than in 2013," Glauber said. "Stronger soybean prices relative to corn should favor soybean plantings this year. The soybean to corn futures price ratio for fall 2014 delivery has been at 2.5, which favors soybeans. We project that corn area will fall to 92 million acres, a decline of 3.4 million acres from 2013 levels. Soybean acreage is projected at 79.5 million acres, up 3 million from 2013. Smaller SRW wheat plantings and lower soybean prices will likely reduce soybean double cropping in 2014."

Those figures reflect a shift from USDA’s baseline projections that were issued last week and used the November Supply & Demand data as a starting point. Those projections showed expectations for corn plantings in 2014 of 93.5 million acres and soybeans at 78 million acres. However, that baseline assumed a continuation of the 2008 Farm Bill programs, including the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program which pays farmers based on planted acres. That program was likely to deliver a payment to many corn farmers given the downturn in prices.

However, the figures today released by Glauber reflect USDA’s views relative to the Agricultural Act of 2014 which pays farmers on base acres, not planted acres, via the Ag Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs. "Since both the PLC and ARC programs are based on producers’ base acres rather than on their actual planted acres, the programs will likely have limited impact on acreage decisions," Glauber stated. He also labeled the program options facing farmers as "complex" relative to the new farm bill. Additional details are available at this link.

Glauber: Record ag exports expected for 2014… At USDA's Ag Outlook forum today, Chief Economist Joe Glauber said FY 2014 agriculture exports are expected to hit a new record high of $142.6 billion in 2014 -- in a year when prices are expected to decline notably. This is up $5.6 billion from the November estimate and would be $1.5 billion above the previous record of 2013-14. USDA expects FY 2014 ag imports to total $110 billion for a net trade balance of $32.6 billion, which would be below the FY 2013 surplus of $7.1 billion. Glauber cited increased dried distillers grains (DDGs) shipments record-setting Chinese demand as major factors for the increase. Specifically, exports to China are expected to rise $3.5 billion to a record high of $25 billion.

Major growth in global trade is expected over the next 10 years, with corn exports expected to rise more than 30%, wheat trade expected to rise 15% and soybean trade expected to rise 40%. Based on projected yield growth, the U.S. will need to allocate 50 million more acres to these crops to meet demand. The U.S. will face fierce competition for these markets from areas such as Brazil of the Black Sea region, but income growth from China and other nations are expected to keep export demand solid over the next decade. Learn more.

Outlooks hints of Midwest planting delays, ongoing drought in Southern Plains... The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects drought to persist or intensify across the Southwest and Southern Plains due to dry initial conditions heading into the seasonally drier spring season. The forecast dated through May 31 has better odds of drought improvement for the Central Plains and Central Corn Belt "where climatological precipitation increases substantially during April and May."

In its extended weather outlook, CPC predicts the Upper Midwest will see below-normal temps in March, while above-normal temps are expected in the Southwest. In its outlook through May, the area of cooler-than-normal temps shrinks slightly, but still includes much of Iowa and Minnesota, northern Illinois and northern Indiana, which if realized, would delay the onset of planting season in those areas. Warmer temps across the Southern Plains increases moisture demand for the HRW crop that has seen condition declines through the winter. Click here for related maps.

Drought Monitor reflects slight overall improvement... According to the National Drought Monitor, 53.21% of the contiguous U.S. was in some form of drought as of Feb. 18. That is down slightly from 55.46% the previous week and down from 66.84% a year ago. Slight drought improvement was noted across the West, South, High Plains and Midwest regions. Click here for related maps.

Ethanol production climbs slightly... The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports ethanol production averaged 903,000 barrels per day (bpd) the week ended Feb. 14, which is up 1,000 bpd from the previous week. The four-week average for ethanol production is at 900,000 bpd for an annualized rate of 13.8 billion gallons. Ethanol stocks rose 141,000 barrels from the pervious week to 17.2 million barrels.

Newly Reported PEDV Cases Declines, But Still Elevated... USDA's National Animal Health Laboratory Network (NAHLN) reports the total number of new porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) cases the week of Feb. 2 came in at 272, which is down from the previous week's record-high of 301 new cases. This brings the total number of new cases confirmed since the start of the outbreak in April 2013 to 3,528. Twenty-five states have reported at least one confirmed PEDV case. Click here for chart.

EPA proposes rule to 'strengthen' pesticide safety handling... The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today announced proposed revisions to the Worker Protection Standard in order to "protect the nation's two million farm workers and their families from pesticide exposure." EPA is proposing significant changes to worker training regarding the safe usage of pesticides, including how to prevent and effectively treat pesticide exposure. Click here for more from the EPA press conference.