Scott Smith

As part of Sporting News’ countdown to the 2012-13 college basketball season, here is an analytical look at 25th-ranked Virginia Commonwealth:

REASONS TO BELIEVE

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The returning Rams. Bradford Burgess, last year’s leading scorer, is the only significant loss from a team that went 29-7 and beat Wichita State in the NCAA Tournament before losing a nail-biter to Indiana. Seven other key contributors from a balanced attack are back, including senior point guard Darius Theus, whose experience directing the offense will be invaluable. Sophomore guard Treveon Graham, a reserve who played in all 36 games, could be ready for an increased role after standing out in VCU’s four-game summer exhibition trip to Italy.

The Burgess legacy. Jordan Burgess, Bradford’s younger brother, offers the same kind of strong frame (6-5, 205) and baseline game as his sibling. A four-star recruit, Burgess will be expected to help replace the 32.3 minutes, 13.4 points and 5.0 rebounds per game his brother produced last season.

Staying Smart. In just three years as VCU’s coach, Shaka Smart has successfully implemented his “wreaking havoc” approach of relentless fullcourt pressure. His Rams have been at their best in the postseason, winning the College Basketball Invitational in 2010, reaching the Final Four in 2011 and getting to the NCAA’s Round of 32 last March despite returning only one starter. Smart deftly blends 10 to 11 players into his rotation, and in March the Rams are usually able to wear down opponents.

REASONS TO WORRY

Conference upgrade. VCU’s new league, the Atlantic 10, had the seventh-best conference RPI last season; the Colonial was ranked 15th. The A-10 also presents plenty of challenges winning away from home. In addition to the obvious tough road trips to big arenas—Xavier, Dayton and Saint Louis—there are a number of small, bandbox-type venues in this league where the fans are right on top of teams and can make life miserable for the visitors.

3-point woes. The Rams ranked seventh among Division I teams in 3-point attempts—but they weren’t nearly as successful making them. They hit 33.4 percent of their tries, finishing outside the top 200. Making matters worse, Bradford Burgess was their second-best outside shooter (36.7 percent).

Board stiffs. The Rams had good athletes and decent size (7-0 D.J. Haley, 6-9 Juvonte Reddic, 6-6 Burgess) along the front line last year, but it wasn’t reflected in their rebounding statistics. They finished 246th in rebounding margin (minus-1.8), coming up with only 33.5 rebounds per game.

PROJECTED ROTATION

Starters

PG Darius Theus, Sr., 6-3/200

G Troy Daniels, Sr., 6-4/200

G/F Treveon Graham, Soph., 6-5/215

F Juvonte Reddic, Jr., 6-9/235

C D.J. Haley, Jr., 7-0/250

Key reserves

G Rob Brandenburg, Jr., 6-2/180

G Briante Weber, Soph., 6-3/160

F Jarred Guest, Soph., 6-8/210

F Jordan Burgess, Fr., 6-5/205

G Melvin Johnson, Fr., 6-3/195

FIVE BIGGEST GAMES

Nov. 13: vs. Wichita State

Nov. 22: vs. Memphis (Battle 4 Atlantis)

Dec. 15: vs. Alabama

Feb. 23: at Xavier

March 10: at Temple

IMPACT NEWCOMER

G Melvin Johnson, freshman. The Rams received a significant midsummer boost when the 6-3 Johnson, a consensus top 100 recruit, joined VCU after Miami granted him a release from his letter of intent. Johnson, who’s from the Bronx, is considered an excellent 3-point shooter and was also recruited by Marquette, Georgetown and Villanova. Smart says Johnson can “put the ball in the basket at a high rate.”

BOTTOM LINE

The Rams’ NCAA tourney success has provided Smart’s program the necessary momentum to upgrade from CAA to A-10 competition. With most of the rotation back and a strong freshman class, there’s no reason this team shouldn’t immediately contend for an A-10 title.