fredag 20. juli 2018

Airbus kan forstyrre Boeings plan om en B757 etterfølger - AW&ST

Boeing’s proposed
new midmarket airplane (NMA) is already facing both customer
interest that may not align with its own official vision of the market
segment and doubts among key suppliers about the size of the market. Now
another factor is making the decision to launch the aircraft next year
even harder—Airbus is closing in on a decision to launch an even more
capable version of the A321neo.

Boeing’s competitor
has long argued that its own lineup of products is sufficient to address
the middle of the market, but Airbus wants to make sure it can cover an
even larger portion of it. The largest version of
the A320neo family is an efficient weapon for Airbus, capturing
an increasing portion of the short- and medium-haul segment, and is the
main reason for Airbus’ current narrowbody market share of
around 60%. The A321LR is beginning to transform the
medium-/long-haul segment, allowing airlines to fly some shorter
transatlantic sectors with a narrowbody aircraft. And the
proposed A321XLR would drive range capabilities even further.

·Airbus
accelerates A321XLR planning to limit
Boeing NMA potential

·Longest-range
Airbus narrowbody could enter service in 2022

·Engine discussions are key
for NMA progress

After a pause earlier
this year that was forced on Airbus by the A320neo production
crisis, the manufacturer is back in attack mode. “Speed is of the
essence,” Airbus Commercial Aircraft President Guillaume Faury says.
While he does not disclose the timing of the launch and entry into
service, industry sources say another version of
the A321neo could be launched in 2019 and would be ready to
enter service in 2021 or 2022 at latest.

Rather than waiting
for the exact definition of the NMA, Airbus is resuming its
proactive approach, which Faury characterizes as a
“step-by-step” strategy. The company is “sharing with customers the
direction we are taking,” he notes. Airbus Chief Commercial Officer Eric
Schulz said earlier this year that a two-year development time frame for
the project is realistic.

Faury did
not disclose details of changes planned beyond what
the A321LR offers. However, he says, “everything is incremental,”
including possible upgrades to the aircraft’s engines. “We keep pushing
the limits [of the A321LR],” he points out. And unlike the multiyear
development project that the NMA constitutes,
the A321XLR upgrades are “short term.”

The A321LR’s
maximum range is 4,000 nm, but it recently flew the 4,750-nm route from
Toulouse to the Seychelles with a payload equivalent to 160
passengers. The A321neo is certified for up to 244 passengers.

Airbus is working
on another version of the A321neo that would take its range well beyond the
A321LR’s 4,000 nm. Credit: S. Ramidier/Airbus

The A321XLR is
planned to be capable of flying 4,500 nm or more. This would enable airlines
to operate the aircraft on transatlantic services to destinations farther
south on the U.S. East Coast and further east from Europe. “Extending the
range of the A321LR will make the NMA business case
more difficult,” Faury says.

The range
increase can be achieved by enlarging the center fuel tank, according to
Schulz. It is integrated with the fuselage structure to save weight.
About 200-300 nm of the range increase has been secured already, but
Airbus still needs to close a gap of roughly 200 nm to reach its target.

The
European airframer has been studying several ways to upgrade
the aircraft—from relatively simple modifications such as the ones
currently favored that would be ready sooner to more fundamental changes that
involve a fuselage plug for greater capacity and a new composite wing,
which are less likely now, given the renewed push for speed. Industry
sources familiar with the process say a decision probably will not be
made for several months.

Meanwhile, the first A321LR will
be delivered to TAP Air Portugal by year-end. The airline will also be
the first to operate both the A321LR and the A330neo,
Airbus’ other tool to attack the NMA from the top.

While
the A330neo has not been selling well, Faury says he
is nevertheless “very optimistic” that this will change as airlines come
to understand its benefits. He believes the A330neo “is very
well-positioned,” and he is also not concerned that the program is
becoming too dependent on one airline. Air Asia X is by far the largest
customer, holding 100 of the 268 firm orders and considering further
commitments.

Boeing had
little to add to the NMA story at the airshow here, other than
to reiterate that a launch decision will be made in 2019 to preserve a
service-entry target date of 2025. “But we are not going to be rushed
into a decision,” asserts Boeing President and CEO
Dennis Muilenburg.

Boeing
Commercial Airplanes President Kevin McAllister notes that the company is
“spending a lot of time getting it right and designing the right
production system,” adding: “As it takes shape, we will make that call.”

At least two of
the engine-makers say exclusivity will be key to their decision whether
to compete to power the NMA. “It has got to make economic sense for
everybody,” says GE Aviation President David Joyce. “We haven’t made a
decision on whether it is one or two choices, but we are not going to do
three because that’s a recipe for disaster.”

GE
and Safran say they will bid on the NMA project
through their CFM joint venture even if, as sounds likely, the
thrust requirement exceeds the 50,000-lb. upper limit of the
engine partnership agreement. Joyce indicates that the latest Boeing
specification calls for an upper thrust requirement of 52,000 lb., up
from the 45,000 lb. discussed by the aircraft manufacturer in 2017.

Like Pratt &
Whitney and Rolls-Royce, CFM delivered its initial proposal to
Boeing in late June. “We expect to get some feedback on this first round.
The process has begun, and we are rolling through it,” says Joyce. In
terms of estimated program costs, he notes: “You are talking about a $2
billion engine.”

Meanwhile,
further details of the CFM proposal are slowly emerging.
Although the company is not discussing the bid, industry executives tell
Aviation Week the concept will likely see a further development of the
3D-woven-resin transfer-molding approach used for the Leap 1 fan. Given
the larger diameter of the fan required for the NMA, there was
speculation that CFM might have adopted a GEnx/GE9X-type carbon-fiber
composite design for the new configuration, but this now appears not to
be the case.