GFS over the past few years has had a hard time keeping a very small Atlantic system Recognized. I think this 1 is included. It will always show a weaker system after the first 12-24hrs unless the system grows in size. I do think Shear will be a problem by Sunday thus weakening this...but question will be...decoupling? or just keeping the system in check before land (if there is) interaction with PR and DR.

Think Danny will be walking a fine line after day 2. Although latest Visible imagery suggests that his envelope is expanding, and a bigger system will stand a better chance of not decoupling, especially if he can manage to stay just north of the islands. Ridge should build in after 97L moves north. Don't know if the trough in the eastern US will be moving out as (if) Danny gets closer.

While a (somewhat) larger Danny might be able to influence his immediate environment a touch more, an increase of wind field could also increase the odds that the cyclone bumps into and ingests the very dry air that surrounds the small cocoon of moisture the presently still small TC has been benefiting from.

Threading the needle, so to speak. Danny is a very small hurricane by global standards, and intensity changes both up and down could be rapid, with any downward intensity changes also possibly fatal, given the synoptic environment.

I think Danny peaked around 115-125mph this morning. Sat estimates are usually under done by 5% and given such a small size..a even hard reading would of been possible. By time recons head out there, Danny will be Dir Min and shear will start to pick up some tonight.So it's too bad they weren't there early this morning when I think he peaked out. I will note that that shear 15-20kts will hamper Danny but not tear him apart. I think the shear will decrease some to 12-15kts as the TUTT moves out...but then a very dry pocket is in his way around 53W-60W and 16N-19N...directly in his path thus weakening him down to a TS by later Saturday afternoon or by Sunday. Like the NHC said...Land interaction will be the next faze. Will he go thru D Rep, or just north of it by Tuesday. We have time to see..and any talk of the U.S. right now can be put on hold till Monday to see how Danny is and what conditions will look like by next weekend.

It does appear that Danny probably did max out within the past few hours somewhere in the 115-135MPH range*, within a very tight core, à la Marco (2008). Recon is finding some very stout winds and much lower pressure than has been estimated, despite the fact that the cyclone appears to be interacting some with the increasing shear.

What lies ahead for Danny could be very challenging for the microcane. The research mission flying in and around it has been finding dewpoint depressions on the order of 70 degrees. With increasing shear ahead, it looks supremely difficult for the cyclone not to begin ingesting this phenomenally dry air, and rapid weakening could ensue.

* And arguably on the high end of that range, for as Mike just mentioned above, recon has found 111 knots at flight level (12k ft), which would normally translate to around 100 knots +/- at the surface.

Quote:
After getting clobbered on Saturday, Tropical Storm Danny seems to be more robust than I thought that it would be with convection now refiring over the center again this evening.
ED

Feeling the same way. Danny looked pretty bad yesterday. I am noticing in one of the loops this morning Danny seems to be having some effect on the shear environment near him. If you watch the attached loop closely the high cirrus clouds, in the lower left corner of the image ahead of Danny, embedded in the upper level flow seem to be having their direction altered from the NE to the NNE and affecting the shear environment above as Danny approaches (to some extent that I can't quantify). I heard this explained in an earlier video blog by Levi Cowan,at Tropical Tidbits, but he expected this type of interaction with a stronger storm. This could explain why Danny is refiring even though the LOC is still partially exposed. Obviously this link is time sensitive and may not reflect what I am talking about in a couple of hours. SSD RBtop loop

Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 19188

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center