This model estimates Sanders’ True Vote. The base case estimate is that Sanders had 52% of the total vote in primaries and caucuses.

It is important to note that Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his1) recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries. The probability is 1 in 190,000. 2) recorded share by greater than the margin of error in 11 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion.

Is the exit poll shift to Clinton just pure luck? Or is something else going on?

Sensitivity analysis tables display the effects of flipped votes and uncounted provisional ballots over a range of assumptions.

Sanders

NATIONAL VOTE

Sensitivity

Uncounted

Ballots

70% of Uncounted

Votes to Sanders

5%

10%

15%

Machine counted Votes Flipped

to Sanders

Sanders Total Share

20%

51.7%

52.5%

53.2%

15%

51.2%

51.88%

52.6%

10%

50.6%

51.3%

52.0%

CALIFORNIA

Assuming a) 30% of California voters were disenfranchised, b) Sanders had 75% of provisional ballots, c) 10% of votes were flipped, Sanders won CA with a 55% share.

On Election Day, Clinton led Sanders 56.4-43.6%. Sanders leads in votes counted since ElectionDay by 52.3-47.7% . This indicates that approximately 15% of Sander’s machine votes were flipped to Clinton. Sanders late vote share exceeded his Election Day share in every CA county. Greg Palast explains why Bernie won California.

Simple California Vote share Model

There was no exit poll, so let’s assume the following.
a) Party-ID: 57% Independents vs. 43% Democrats
(estimated based on 2014-2016 surveys)
b) Sanders won 70% of Independents

Result:Clinton needed an implausible 85% of Democrats to match her 53.5% share.

Based on the following table of 25 Democratic primary exit polls (assuming confirmation that the WI and CT polls exceeded the MoE), the probability P that at least 12 would exceed the MoE is P= 2.30E-13 or 1 in 4.3 trillion.
P= 1-binomdist (11,25,0.025,true)

The 3 million Clinton vote margin is repeated endlessly by the media. This analysis shows that the number is grossly inflated. Sanders may very well be leading the popular vote and corresponding delegate count. This is an updated analysis of estimated probabilities of fraud in the Democratic primaries.

This is why Sanders has done much better than his recorded vote:

– Actual votes in caucus states are not included in the count – to the benefit of Clinton.– Exit polls indicated voting machines were hacked – to the benefit of Clinton.– Voter rolls were manipulated – to the benefit of Clinton.– Long lines and reduced polling stations reduced voter turnout – to the benefit of Clinton.

Sanders won the caucuses easily. The largest states were MN, WA, CO. The actual votes were approximated by multiplying caucus vote shares by the state voting population, which is proportional to the electoral vote.

Votes for the primaries were calculated based on late exit polls. Sanders did approximately 4% better in the polls than in his recorded share. The National Election Pool discontinued exit polls after the Indiana primary.

Sanders exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries which were exit polled. The probability is 1 in 190.000. The difference between his exit poll share and recorded share exceeded the margin of error in 11 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion. Is the exit poll shift to Clinton just pure luck? Or is something else going on?

Exit polls and caucuses indicate that Sanders has won 30 of 44 states and leads the electoral vote by 259-193. Clinton’s margin is reduced from 3 million to 1.3 million based on actual caucus votes and unadjusted exit polls.

A conservative estimate is that 10% of Sanders voters were disenfranchised due to long lines, reduced polling stations, switched/dropped party registrations, uncounted provisional ballots, etc. And 5% of Clinton’s votes were due to absentee ballot stuffing. New York, Arizona, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts and the southern red states are prime examples.

After adjusting for actual caucus votes and exit polls:

Clinton has won 11 RED states (normally Republican) by 2.1 million votes (64-36%)- before voter rolls, absentee/provisional ballot fraud. Clinton leads RED states by approximately 1.6 million (61-39%).

Sanders leads the non-RED states by 1.1 million- before voter rolls, absentee/provisional ballot fraud. Sanders leads non-RED states by approximately 57-43%, a 2.4 million vote margin.