John McClain’s guide to Texans vs. Packers

December 2, 2016 9:47 AM

Four things to watch

RUN TO WIN

Even if the conditions were ideal, the Texans would have to run to win. They’re not going to win because of Brock Osweiler’s passing. They’re fifth in rushing (121 yards a game), and they’ve averaged 137 over their last six games. The Packers are seventh in run defense (90.2). Expect Lamar Miller to do damage on the left side behind tackle Duane Brown and guard Xavier Su-a’Filo. If he can bounce outside, he can break long ones. It helps to get back Alfred Blue, who averages 4.9 yards a carry.

Four things to watch RUN TO WIN Even if the conditions were...photo-11907175.138258 - |ucfirst

AVOID INTERCEPTIONS

Brock Osweiler has to stop forcing the ball to DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has been targeted on eight of his 13 interceptions. Osweiler must make better decisions, especially when he’s under pressure. Throw it away rather than try to fit the ball into a tight window. Take the sack. Don’t panic. The right side of tackle Chris Clark and guard Jeff Allen has been woefully inconsistent. Clark gives up too many pressures and commits too many penalties. Osweiler is desperate for a clean pocket.

When it comes to sacking the quarterback, the Texans have been awful. They have four in their last five games. After recording nine in the first two games, they have 11 sacks in their last nine games. Don’t expect them to hit Aaron Rodgers, who’s mobile and has outstanding pocket awareness. Under pressure, he keeps his eyes down the field as well or better than any quarterback in the league. The Texans need an inside push. Their outside rushers have to be disciplined and protect the edges.

PUT PRESSURE ON RODGERS When it comes to sacking the...photo-11870339.138258 - |ucfirst

CONTAIN THE RUN

The Packers are not a productive running team, but it’s not for a lack of trying. They rank 22nd in rushing with 98.2 yards a game. They have only four rushing touchdowns, the same abysmal output as the Texans. Leading rusher Eddie Lacy (361 yards) is on injured reserve. His replacement, James Starks, has 141. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is second with 285, including three touchdowns. The Texans should be able stuff the run. They’ve allowed only 58 yards rushing over their last four games.

If the Texans are going to upset the Packers at Lambeau Field, chances are it will be a close game that could be decided by a field goal. The last time the Texans won in Green Bay was 2008 when Kris Brown kicked the game-winning field goal to beat Aaron Rodgers in his first season as a starter. Novak is a nine-year veteran who has kicked in wind, snow, rain and freezing temperature. This season, he’s connected on 23-of-28 field goals. Three of his misses have been at least 50 yards. He’s 21-of-23 from inside the 50.

The last time the Texans saw Nelson was in 2012, and they were hoping they wouldn’t have to see him again. In the Packers’ 42-24 victory at NRG Stadium, Nelson torched the defensive backs for nine catches and 122 yards. He caught three of Aaron Rodgers’ six touchdown passes against the Wade Phillips-coached defense. Nelson is still Rodgers’ favorite target, but he’s going against a Romeo Crennel-coached defense. He leads the Packers with 61 catches for 754 yards and nine touchdowns. He excels on the short and intermediate routes but also works the deep sidelines.

PACKER TO WATCH: JORDY NELSON, WIDE RECEIVER The last time the...photo-11403359.138258 - |ucfirst

JOHN MCCLAIN'S PREDICTION

Packers 24, Texans 16

The Texans are 1-4 on the road. Their only victory was by three points at Jacksonville. The Packers are the first of two consecutive games on the road. There’s a 70 percent chance of snow and game-time temperature is expected to be in the high 70s. Expect another defeat.

Even if the conditions were ideal, the Texans would have to run to win. They’re not going to win because of Brock Osweiler’s passing. They’re fifth in rushing (121 yards a game), and they’ve averaged 137 over their last six games. The Packers are seventh in run defense (90.2). Expect Lamar Miller to do damage on the left side behind tackle Duane Brown and guard Xavier Su-a’Filo. If he can bounce outside, he can break long ones. It helps to get back Alfred Blue, who averages 4.9 yards a carry.