Title: A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical and cost-effective.

@article{osti_1201545,
title = {A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management},
author = {White, Joshua A. and Foxall, William},
abstractNote = {This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical and cost-effective.},
doi = {10.1016/j.egypro.2014.11.515},
journal = {Energy Procedia},
number = C,
volume = 63,
place = {United States},
year = {2014},
month = {1}
}

It is well established that fluid injection has the potential to induce earthquakes—from microseismicity to magnitude 5+ events—by altering state-of-stress conditions in the subsurface. This paper reviews recent lessons learned regarding induced seismicity at carbon storage sites. While similar to other subsurface injection practices, CO 2 injection has distinctive features that should be included in a discussion of its seismic hazard. Induced events have been observed at CO 2 injection projects, though to date it has not been a major operational issue. Nevertheless, the hazard exists and experience with this issue will likely grow as new storage operations come online.more » This review paper focuses on specific technical difficulties that can limit the effectiveness of current risk assessment and risk management approaches, and highlights recent research aimed at overcoming them. Finally, these challenges form the heart of the induced seismicity problem, and novel solutions to them will advance our ability to responsibly deploy large-scale CO 2 storage.« less

It is well established that fluid injection has the potential to induce earthquakes-from microseismicity to magnitude 5+ events-by altering state-of-stress conditions in the subsurface. This paper reviews recent lessons learned regarding induced seismicity at carbon storage sites. While similar to other subsurface injection practices, CO 2 injection has distinctive features that should be included in a discussion of its seismic hazard. Induced events have been observed at CO 2 injection projects, though to date it has not been a major operational issue. Nevertheless, the hazard exists and experience with this issue will likely grow as new storage operations come online.more » This review paper focuses on specific technical difficulties that can limit the effectiveness of current risk assessment and risk management approaches, and highlights recent research aimed at overcoming them. These challenges form the heart of the induced seismicity problem, and novel solutions to them will advance our ability to responsibly deploy large-scale CO 2 storage.« less

Due to the deep socioeconomic implications, induced seismicity is a timely and increasingly relevant topic of interest for the general public. Cases of induced seismicity have a global distribution and involve a large number of industrial operations, with many documented cases from as far back to the beginning of the twentieth century. However, the sparse and fragmented documentation available makes it difficult to have a clear picture on our understanding of the physical phenomenon and consequently in our ability to mitigate the risk associated with induced seismicity. This review presents a unified and concise summary of the still open questionsmore » related to monitoring, discrimination, and management of induced seismicity in the European context and, when possible, provides potential answers. Lastly, we further discuss selected critical European cases of induced seismicity, which led to the suspension or reduction of the related industrial activities.« less

The goal of this research is to develop a fundamentally better approach to geological site characterization and early hazard detection. We combine innovative techniques for analyzing microseismic data with a physics-based inversion model to forecast microseismic cloud evolution. The key challenge is that faults at risk of slipping are often too small to detect during the site characterization phase. Our objective is to devise fast-running methodologies that will allow field operators to respond quickly to changing subsurface conditions.

In this paper, we present model simulations of ground motions caused by CO 2 -injection-induced fault reactivation and analyze the results in terms of the potential for damage to ground surface structures and nuisance to the local human population. It is an integrated analysis from cause to consequence, including the whole chain of processes starting from earthquake inception in the subsurface, wave propagation toward the ground surface, and assessment of the consequences of ground vibration. For a small magnitude (M w =3) event at a hypocenter depth of about 1000m, we first used the simulated ground-motion wave train in anmore » inverse analysis to estimate source parameters (moment magnitude, rupture dimensions and stress drop), achieving good agreement and thereby verifying the modeling of the chain of processes from earthquake inception to ground vibration. We then analyzed the ground vibration results in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and frequency content, with comparison to U.S. Geological Survey's instrumental intensity scales for earthquakes and the U.S. Bureau of Mines' vibration criteria for cosmetic damage to buildings, as well as human-perception vibration limits. Our results confirm the appropriateness of using PGV (rather than PGA) and frequency for the evaluation of potential ground-vibration effects on structures and humans from shallow injection-induced seismic events. For the considered synthetic M w =3 event, our analysis showed that the short duration, high frequency ground motion may not cause any significant damage to surface structures, but would certainly be felt by the local population.« less