Looking back, 2013 was good for jobs

It didn’t always feel like it, but 2013 turned out to be a pretty strong year for job growth in San Diego County.

Revised data released Friday by the state Employment Development Department showed that about 30,050 more people had jobs than originally reported.

Last year, an average 1,311,975 San Diegans were on a payroll each month, a 2.6 percent increase from 2012, and the most since 1,319,742 in 2007, just before the Great Recession took off. Esmael Adibi, economist at Chapman University, called the upward revision astonishing.

“Most people look at the headlines, like sequestration or Obamacare, but there are a whole bunch of other things that are working that are independent from those factors,” Adibi said, noting increased export activity, health care demand and consumer spending. “Barring anything unexpected, the job market should even improve this year.”

The revised numbers came from tax data filed by new and small businesses that weren’t tracked by the government throughout the year. The new numbers reversed the stories told throughout 2013 of a slowing job market that went from 2.6 percent annual growth in March to 1.2 percent in August. At the time, companies were faced with across-the-board federal budget cuts under sequestration, an October government shut down and a debt ceiling crisis.

“The economy seemed to just be able to power through all these things that we worried about,” said Alan Gin, economist at the University of San Diego. “We had one narrative that the economy is slowing down and then we’ve had to change it here because of this revision.”

Gin credited the economic strength to the rebound in the housing market, which in mid-year saw 24.1 percent in annual home-price appreciation. That made people feel wealthier, increasing consumer spending and boosting construction employment, which added 6,500 jobs last year, 11.2 percent growth.

Also on Friday, the state reported that San Diego County’s January unemployment rate was 7 percent, down from 8.5 percent in January 2013, but up from 6.5 percent in December due largely to 11,100 layoffs in the retail and tourism industries post-holiday season. Adjusted for seasonal factors, Gin said he has the unemployment rate dropping from 6.9 percent in December to 6.8 percent in January.

Also once adjusted for seasonality, the state reports that nonfarm jobs grew by 5,000 from December to January.

“It’s very broad based job creation,” Adibi said. “Information and financial activities are the only two weak (sectors). If you look at all the others: construction, manufacturing, trade and transportation is up, professional and business services are up, education, leisure.”

Also, despite the retail industry’s post-holiday layoff, the field is up 1,800 jobs in the last year, reflecting confidence that consumers will shop more. Even manufacturing jobs, which had been on the decline, rose by 700 jobs in the last 12 months. From January 2013 to January 2014, county employers have added 28,300 jobs, a 2.2 percent annual clip.

“It was good, healthy growth,” said Phil Blair, CEO of Manpower San Diego, a staffing agency. “The concern was that it was growth at the lower end and the higher end. It’s the middle management that my heart goes out to. They need to reinvent themselves as fast as possible.”

Gin said he sees county employers adding another 30,000 jobs in 2014, with the adjusted unemployment rate falling below 6 percent. He said he would consider San Diego County fully recovered from the recession when the unemployment rate hits the low 5’s, at which point employees would have more leverage in the job market, thereby putting upward pressure on wages. He sees that milestone being reached in 2015.

California’s jobs numbers also showed a large revision, with the monthly average employment number increasing from 14.6 million to 15.2 million. The state’s unemployment rate, which is adjusted for seasonal factors, dropped to 8.1 percent in January, down from 8.3 percent in December and from 9.5 percent a year earlier.

California saw a monthly decrease of 31,600 nonfarm payroll jobs, bringing total gains in the state to 1,171,000 since February 2010. That’s when the department says the recovery from the recession began.

California’s jobless rate remained above the national January average of 6.6 percent.

The state’s unemployment rate had risen to double digits during the recession and was at 9 percent or higher for five years until May 2013.

Higher-wage sectors such as manufacturing, finance and health services saw increases over the month, gaining 14,900 jobs. One category, mining and logging, was unchanged.

Five sectors including construction, government and leisure and hospitality reported declines over the month, down 46,500 jobs. Trade, transportation and utilities posted the largest decrease.

The state and local January statistics were delayed due to the revision. The state will release the February numbers on March 21.