Horn’s worry should be November, not June

Will county Supervisor Bill Horn win a fifth term in next month’s primary?

Sure looks like it.

Honestly, I can envision just one long-shot scenario that results in Big Bill’s defeat in November’s general election.

Thursday night, I had a chance to ask questions to Horn and his four challengers during a candidate forum on KOCT, Oceanside’s community cable station.

Frankly, I came away with the feeling that Horn, despite his well-reported warts, will be returned to office in North County’s 5th District.

Barring one chain of events, the “Bill in the china shop,” as he’s been called, will once again bull his way to four more years.

To start with the obvious, an incumbent supervisor has huge, nearly insurmountable, advantages over challengers so long as the county government is perceived to be solvent and functional.

Possibly because the city of San Diego has been such a fiscal wreck the past decade or so, the county looks like pretty good in comparison.

The five white Republicans on the Board of Supervisors, all of a certain age and graduates of San Diego State University, have cultivated an image of reassuring competence that serves them well during election time. Even when they disagree on major issues, as they recently did on the Merriam Mountains development north of Escondido, they come off as statesmanlike.

Sure, Horn has a well-deserved reputation as a rhetorical loose cannon. He’s often tagged as being recklessly cozy with the housing industry. But come election time, he buckles down to business. He raises as much money as the traffic will bear. Tom Shepard, one of the best consultants around, manages his message of tough-on-crime values and North County advocacy.

Also in Horn’s favor are the demographics of his district. The unincorporated areas, where Horn is best known and least popular, are not rich in votes.

In 2006, when Bruce Thompson came close to upsetting Horn, the former assemblyman narrowly outpolled Horn in the backcountry. The decisive difference was in the voter-wealthy cities — Carlsbad, Oceanside, Vista, San Marcos — where Horn has performed well enough to win.

Over the years, Horn has been fortunate in his underfunded foes. This election is no exception.

In 2006, Thompson squandered his shot, failing to spend the money at the end to capitalize on scandals that had Horn on the defensive. For example, his eye-raising Carlsbad home purchase with his female chief of staff?

This time around, Horn’s cast of challengers appear to lack financial and political heft.

Tom Bumgardner, a farmer in Valley Center, has been a local salt-of-the-earth volunteer for three decades, but without a huge media campaign, he’s unlikely to break through with voters in the decisive cities. If he were running for supervisor of Valley Center and Fallbrook, maybe.

Fabio Marchi, an immigrant from Argentina, was motivated to run for supervisor because he encountered problems with his development plans. He’s sort of charming with his accented hyperbole — he compares Horn to dictators in his native country — but he seems to be living in a dream world where chivalric candidates sally forth and slay giants.

John Van Doorn, a San Marcos engineer (not to be confused with the North County Times columnist of the same name), ran against Supervisor Pam Slater-Price two years ago. His candidacy is based on his personal anger when, following a divorce, his children were ripped out of his life by a county social worker. He believes county services, such as foster care, are driven by profits, not humane service. It’s a powerful, well-articulated but limited talking point. But again, no major media campaign, no traction.

And finally, there’s Steve Gronke, the likely first runner-up to Horn in the June 8 primary. Gronke, a Vista councilman and teacher, has been aggressively running for almost a year, actively courting union support, a wild card in any election. He’s changed his party affiliation from Republican to decline-to-state to make himself more attractive to independents and Democrats. You’ve heard the old saw: You can’t beat somebody with nobody. In this race, Gronke is as close to somebody as the challengers can offer.

So what’s the narrow path to Horn’s defeat?

It all comes down to one tipping point in a low-turnout, midterm primary.

If Horn receives 50.000000000000001 percent of the vote, it’s game over. It will be a huge, if narrow, victory for the incumbent. He’ll be a supervisor for at least 20 years, health permitting. Even if the labor-backed term-limits proposition on the ballot passes, Horn will be blowing a happy tune.

If, however, Horn receives 49.999999999999999 percent, it’s a devastating loss. He’ll have to square off against the second-place finisher (presumably Gronke) in November when the turnout will be larger and more liberal. Over the summer and fall, Gronke could grow in stature, attracting ardent union support.

It’s a long shot. Horn’s negatives may be sky-high in some quarters, but he’s the familiar boss in his massive neck of North County.

He’s somebody. If he gets his 50 percent plus one, the challengers now nipping at his heels will be dismissed as nobodies.