Get Well Soon, Andrew Bogut (Warriors 109, Phoenix 122)

How much do the Warriors miss Andrew Bogut’s defense presence in the middle? Saturday’s 109-122 loss to the Suns gives at least a hint. Phoenix shot 53.8%, repeatedly driving at the exposed center of the Warriors’ defense. The frequent trips to the rim resulted in easy points, and prevented the Warriors from stringing together any significant stops. It was a painful loss against an unexpected playoff challenger (the Suns are now a half-game ahead of the Warriors, precariously tied with Dallas for the last playoff spot). But there was at least one bright spot.

It was throwback night for the Warriors, in a sense, as Mark Jackson returned to new variations on old strategies in hopes of jump-starting his team.

In David Lee’s absence, Harrison Barnes played extended minutes at the power forward spot. His 9-15, 23 point, 6 rebound performance was the best he’s looked in months. Barnes made a point of attacking the Suns’ defense and taking smaller defenders in the paint. While he appeared to resort to more fade-aways as he wore down later in his 36-minute run, his earlier aggressive takes were extremely encouraging. The Suns returned the favor, posting up Barnes (Green, and others) to punish Jackson’s small-ball line-ups. When Bogut was lurking in the middle last spring, the Warriors were able to reap the offensive benefits of the tactic without giving up too much defensively. But with Bogut out, whatever the Warriors gained on offense, they seemed to give back at the other end. Still, in the big picture of Harrison Barnes’ season, this was a breakthrough. Now Barnes and Jackson need to find a way to keep his momentum going when Lee returns.

Advertisement

Jackson’s other nod to past success was more subtle than his use of Barnes at the 4. Jordan Crawford has been gaining minutes in the rotation gradually, and Jackson finally gave him a run during crucial minutes paired with Stephen Curry in the backcourt. When Jarrett Jack was playing that role last year, the goal was to shelter Curry from the crush of late-game defense and allow him to focus on getting open rather than worrying about running the team. Jack seemed to have a steadying influence on the team, even when his defense or shot selection left something to be desired. On Sunday, unfortunately, Crawford seemed to have the opposite effect. Rather than help Curry get the ball, Crawford forced it himself. His 0 assists in 17 minutes is representative of how well he fulfilled his point guard duties. There are positives to Crawford’s game — pushing the tempo and penetrating off the dribble, mainly — but he’s not the answer when the offense needs to flow. Given Curry’s growth since last year, I’d rather see Jackson leave the ball in his hand in late-game situations and allow him to either call his own number or create for others. Leaving that choice to someone with Crawford’s score-first instincts is a recipe for frustration.

Despite Jackson’s encouraging willingness to experiment with his line-ups (including a run with Draymond Green at center), this game may have come down to not having the pieces to compete. The absence of Andrew Bogut and David Lee was less glaring against Chicago because the Bulls are an offensively inferior team, particularly without Boozer, and the Warriors had a hot night from behind the arc. Against an offensively skilled team and with less Warriors’ luck from three-point territory (8-25), the Warriors’ missing pieces were more noticeable. Still, for a “no excuses” ball club, this game wasn’t simply about not having enough bodies to compete.

The Warriors’ difficulty defending the rim is understandable — particularly with O’Neal still working back into his game — but the defensive struggles on the perimeter are harder to explain. Andre Iguodala was lit up by Gerald Green. Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry were late all night closing out on their assignments. As a result, the Suns were able to beat the Warriors from both inside and out. The team might have been able to weather hot shooting from one zone or the other, but with the Suns seemingly scoring at will from all over the court, it would have taken a nearly flawless offensive game for the Warriors to keep pace. Even with Curry’s usual heroics, Thompson stabilizing with a respectable line, Barnes topping 20 points and Iguodala breaking into double digits, it wasn’t enough.

Andrew Bogut is hugely important to the Warriors’ defense, but it takes more than one man to slow down a skilled opponent. The rest of the Warriors shouldn’t use his absence as an excuse for their individual defensive struggles.

Adam Lauridsen

Post navigation

Utah is trying to tank and their plan is to play RJ but bench Biedrins and Rush. Rush is still recovering and not played enough for TS% to be considered. We know Klay can get into slump, then who is out consistent 3PT shooter.

I yi yiyi

Yep, something fishy is going on.

I yi yiyi

Rick Adelman head Coach, with Tom Thibodeau lead assistant…… Bob get er done

Most 3-point shooters will have ups and downs during the course of a season (even Steph). To me 3-point shooting isn’t a concern as the Dubs have four players shooting above the league average from beyond the arc for their position in Steph, Klay, Iguodala, and Barnes. The Dubs as a team are 3rd in made 3s and 9th in 3FG%.

sartre

Geoff Lepper:

“Given that W’s are 7th in NBA in point differential, there is an argument to
be made they should be better than 8th in Western Conference.”

I think too many make the mistake of seeing a near 1:1 relationship between point differential and win/loss record. There will always be some variance between the two measures across teams. For instance, Minny (likely out of the playoffs picture) are 9th in points differential but 16th equal in win/loss record. Using point differential and season record discrepancy to argue that teams under- or over-achieve overstates the strength of the statistical relationship.

no not all the blame but yes some of it, now the question is… How much is enough to fire him?

coltraning

it is not a 1:1 correlation, Sartre, but it is a pretty strong indicator of how good a team is.

coltraning

ok, so I do want to point out to my worthy adversary that two respected posters have definitely talked about firing Jackson today, you and Dr. John. No shock I disagree. I am also trying to remember any coach fired from a team that was 30-22 60% of the way through the season.

As for your question? For me, it would be if this team missed the playoffs, because I think the West is that strong. I believe that 10 of the top 12 teams in the league reside in the West, and other than OKC, the difference between 2 and 10 is minute…that said, this Ws team absolutely has, barring Curry getting injured, enough talent to make the playoffs. If they don’t, I think the ownership group has to take a hard look at everything and everyone, including Jackson.

It seems extremely premature and reductive for us to do this now….

knick

You haven’t answered my question. How is Lebron making Bosh bettet? You do realize Bosh was an all star and a very good player right? They complement each other. Lebron don’t win nothing without Wade and Bosh. You should know that by now.

coltraning

Thanks for this. The piece is such a smart, nuanced and balanced take by Marcus Thompson 3, that I really hope people read it with an open mind rather than with hardened positions. I think it is the most thoughtful and well-reasoned case presenting the plusses and minuses of Jax I have read. Those who have made up their minds one way or the other will dismiss it, but I am hopeful that some will reconsider and embrace the chiaroscuro of the moment…

I yi yiyi

Kinda just measuring the interest. But I agree, This team had high expectations this year. From the Owner down, we got the players to at least go as far as we did last year and many here hoped to take the next step, yes the west is stacked, but so what? How many games lost, would you attribute to the coaching staff? And to be fair I know that our players can not be up for every game. But ISO, and Give the Ball to Steph and ISOs and so on. Many things about Mark I like, but where is a system? where are the set plays? where are the HIBBIQ time outs? Why are the rotations so predicable?

Are we not men? NO WE ARE DEVO and crappy retro ball is not going to make it.

Time for some focus…

and now I’ll get off my high horse.
Play ball

Go Warriors beat the 76ers

coltraning

In case you don’t click through, here is the money part of MT3′s column…

“Jackson’s philosophy is to emphasize defense and ride his stars for production on offense.

He sticks to his game plan and trusts in his players. It’s not a strange philosophy. Many NBA coaches believe in their systems enough to not abandon them during rough times.

But a main motivating ploy of Jackson’s is to believe in his players more than anybody else, especially when they are struggling.

He doesn’t cut minutes for guys who work hard. He doesn’t demote players he will need later. He doesn’t give up on guys when they are going through ruts. It worked last regular season to the tune of a 24-win improvement. It worked in the playoffs as Golden State beat Denver and challenged San Antonio.

It’s not working as well right now. But if the Warriors turn it around, Jackson’s philosophy will have worked again.

Bottom line: There are few great coaches out there. There are several good ones, and they all come with weaknesses and exploitable holes in their systems. Jackson is a good one.

Are there coaches who could better maximize the offensive talent on this roster? Sure, but can the Warriors get them?

Co-owner Joe Lacob, who has declined to give Jackson a contact extension, might want to take the risk and give up on a good coach in pursuit of a great one. However, he’d better have someone better in mind. Otherwise, he would be repeating the Warriors’ history of juggling coaches and undervaluing the benefits of consistency and stability on the bench.”

dr_john

IMHO—-nah. Jack has had good years on bad to marginal teams before. By your measure, perhaps then it was the Warriors who made him better last year? Or was it a contract year?

I don’t mind the speculation, don’t get me wrong.

coltraning

and lest we forget, go back and read the blog on March 4th, when the Ws had fallen to their nadir of 33-27 from a gaudy 22-10 start. Hell, read how many folks were utterly pessimistic that the Ws had a snowball’s chance in the Sahara against Denver right before that series, and ESP. after D Lee got hurt in the first game.

Patience, grasshopper…

I yi yiyi

“What you can blame
Jackson for is his team not being ready to play. Slow starts, bad
endings to quarters, poor efforts against losing teams, that’s on him.
But is that typical during an 82-game season? Is that the function of a
team struggling to adjust to new expectations? Or is it a sign of
Jackson’s ineptitude?

Jackson’s philosophy is to emphasize defense and ride his stars for production on offense.

I’ve just got to convince my kids that this is a cross-over between Doctor Who and the NBA… “If you want to call me anything, call me the Doctor”

Like to see the W’s to produce this kind of wonder in Oracle fans tonight. The shots of the surrounding crowd, so cool…

Thurston Hunger

Non-gaussian though….all those early blow-outs and then all the tight games. Sadly one 20-point blow-out does not cover 20 1-point losses…

But adding another 20-point blow-out tonight works for me…feels like it’s been a while.

jsl165

No one’s blaming ALL of this hot mess on Jax.

But note that MT, who’s had his share of criticisms of Jax, wrote a ‘nuanced and balanced’ (shades of Fox News and ITS narrative!) piece that somehow elides over practically every Jax weaknesses that has been the focus of so many of our posts here. ( Is that because now everyone takes them for granted?)

And more and more are coming to the ineluctable conclusion that this Emperor has no clothes (and, apparently, refuses to buy any). I mean, geez, we’re pretty far off what our points differential — your key stat — would suggest. Well, maybe Jax is too fixated on developing his young talent (e.g. Klay, Barnes, Baze, etc.) so effectively he can’t get his team ready for games.

So, Col, if we somehow fail to make the playoffs with this much talent, are you now backing off your own conditional (see, the Doc, below) statement that that would be enough of Jax for you, too?

If not, then that would make three, by your count.

Thurston Hunger

In a Google/FaceBook world, we are the wares…

Closer to your vocation, I was a Ware (as in David S.) fan…

jsl165

I know. It’s always just one game.

Thurston Hunger

But remember the days when his hands were touted as so good, and not for the speed at which they gave up the hot potato (I mean ball)…

Oh well, he’s someone else’s project now (and Utah is getting less out of him than MJax last I checked).

Thurston Hunger

I was thinking the same thing vs Phoenix when taking a charge versus a Morris twin (not necessarily the most potent PF’s going today) was Harrison’s best D….

Believewhat

Always in Denial, Mo Williams all star in Cleveland, where is he now ?? Read Thorpe article I copy pasted above, might be opportunity to learn little bit basketball.

jsl165

“It’s not working as well right now. But if the Warriors turn it around . . . .”

As my late, beloved Grandpappy used to say: “If ‘ifs and buts’ were candy and nuts, we’d all have a happy Christmas.”

Believewhat

They didn’t trade for him to play him. Cost of getting that 1st rd pick next year. His hands were good, did tease us with 20-20 games, no We Believe year without him.

Believewhat

The motivation tactics gets old. How would you motivate team to play against 76ers they were supposed to win against anyway. Tactics as aide to coaching not as primary method of coaching is needed.

monsta

I like the Knicks, btw, to make the playoffs. Tyson Chandler is STILL underrated, he’s like Bogut with a dance move and a goatee, and Carmelo Anthony is playing inspired basketball. I have seen him PASS the ball this year, and hell has remained the same temperature. It’s a team of shooters and Chandler, and I think they’re headed to that coveted 7th spot so they can be annihilated by the Heat.

monsta

i know. wrong blog.

Believewhat

But they have Heat’s number

Our Team

Fair enough. So how much do we get to blame on MJ for the Warriors’ struggles this year–50%? 70%? MTII says MJ is a “good” coach, not a “great coach.” Well, what the heck does that mean? The NBA is the highest level of basketball in the world so, yeah, to get a head coaching job in the NBA you better be a “good” coach.

Regardless of ambiguities, why the heck shouldn’t the Warriors have a “great” coach? Myers has been a “great” GM thus far. He hasn’t been perfect but he has transformed the Warriors’ roster in a short time. He has brought in a “great” young core of players. I don’t believe for a minute that Myers is responsible for bringing MJ in here. That was a Lacob deal, likely with the imprimatur of West (and, let’s not forget, the Mike Malone as an assistant condition).

Again, why not have a “great” coach? You think Lacob is going to stand long for a coach who isn’t “great?” He has hundreds of millions of dollars of investors’ and his own money invested in the Warriors. I wouldn’t stand for a coach who’s just “good.” That works for my high school team. Maybe even works for my college team. It doesn’t work for my NBA team.

There are quite a few coaches in the NBA who are much better than MJ. We have lost to a number of them this year. Several, like Hornacek, were not on the “great coach” radar screen even last year. Why shouldn’t Lacob go out and find one of those?

Lacob will wait for the season to end, review it and probably hire a new coach. I expect the next hire to be a “great” coach with more of a coaching track record than MJ had. I don’t see Lacob taking that same risk again. And if MJ and the Warriors surprise this year in the playoffs and MJ proves that he’s developing into a “great” coach? Great. I mean “terrific.”

nelliebiggestfan

One of the more important parts and points of the Thompson article was the question of who are you going to get if you fire MJ. Lacob and Myers probably think that they’ve put together a title contending roster but what do Phil Jackson or Jerry Sloan or Stan Van Gundy think of this team. We know that any assistant would jump at this job but a big time established coach won’t take it if they think they’re being set up to fail. If big time coaches think that ownership is overating the talent on this team none of them is going to take the job. That leaves either a long time assistant from a championship “system” (are there any spurs assistants left ?) or some hot shot x’s and o’s genius who has never run a team. the w’s are not guaranteed to get someone better than MJ, this would be a very risky move that might not pay off.

Believewhat

A case for Barnes to play less and not with Curry+Klay.

—–

But if you dig deeper into the advanced stats, a much bigger problem is revealed — Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are both much better scorers whenever Barnes isn’t on the court.

With Barnes on the court (stats courtesy of nbawowy.com):

Thompson: 0.98 Points Per Play, 46.2 Effective Field Goal Percentage

Curry: 1.09 PPP, 46.4 eFG

Without Barnes on the court (stats courtesy of nbawowy.com):

Thompson: 1.25 PPP, 57.9 eFG

Curry: 1.14 PPP, 56.0 eFG

As the numbers show, this season the Warriors’ backcourt of Curry
and Thompson has been much, much better without Barnes on the floor.
That, more than anything else, may eventually lead the Warriors to
consider trading Barnes, the player they chose ahead of Andre Drummond in the 2012 draft.

Believewhat

…and MJ is not the first good coach who was let go.

knick

Idiot….a coach is only as good as his players, Mjax didn’t decimate his successful team, it was Lacob and Myers. Jax didn’t decide to sign TD and Speights, that was Myers, Jax didn’t draft NN it was Myers who somehow saw Drose in him, and Jax didn’t tell you to be stupid and gullible enough to believe all the hype. You my friend are a victim of your own stupidity.

Our Team

I love MTII but I thought his recent piece on MJ was really dumb. I just realized that I posted it below. I won’t repost but if you are interested in my take, I’m interested in hearing your responses. Didn’t mean to rant on nbf, actually, in a reply to his post of the MTII piece.

Believewhat

” I am also trying to remember any coach fired from a team that was 30-22 60% of the way through the season.”

Rick Carlise in Detroit, Stan VanGundy, Del Harris to just name few were let go for better coaches, I believe they had the similar record.

sartre

My friend, this is Fox News level selective reportage The money quote for me was MT II’s criticism of MJ in terms of the team’s lack of readiness to play – slow starts and bad endings to quarters, poor efforts against losing teams.

I’m not calling for him to be sacked (though I support the notion that he would benefit from one or more highly experienced and proven assistants). I do accept the argument that MJ deserves credit for improved team defense but also accept that he equally warrants criticism for the decline in offense on the back of the over-reliance upon isos and some questionable substitution tendencies.

Believewhat

If Myers and dubs of 30-21 record are bad, what do you think of Knicks GM ?

Camelot

Pistons beating spurs #nomoredeadmancoaching.

Camelot

Bogut & JO out, Lee is on..per RS..

deano

BW: Your stats support the notion of trading Barnes rather Thompson or Lee, if GSW is indeed seeking a particular player. Certainly, the loss of Barnes would be less disruptive to the current rotation. More importantly, Thompson and Lee, especially, are better players. So what player do the Warriors need who would be a substantial improvement over Barnes? Maybe no one.

Believewhat

There are always exceptions like Warriors of last year but more often than not, the correlation stayed true.

Believewhat

I know, just thought it is interesting. If I am GM though, I will first trade Lee or Klay before Barnes but in the end, I want dubs to win and I am dubs fan foremost. So, depending on who warriors can get back, I am okay with trading anyone but it has to be really a worthy trade. For example, if you are trading Barnes, you may want to get another player with Barnes potential but may be better fit or for different position. Just to throw few names there, Monroe, Kanter, Sullinger fits to that description for Barnes. If you are trading Lee it has to be for someone like Love or Zach Randolph.