Wednesday, May 07, 2014

Frandsen, who signed with the Nationals in late March after spending spring training with the Phillies, was asked which of his new teammates has impressed him the most this season.

“Rendon,” Frandsen said, not skipping a beat. “Without a doubt. He is as impressive as any young player; in all honesty, he’s the best young guy we have, by far. … I don’t think there’s anyone in the same sentence as him, as far as young guys, and he might be one of the best ones in the league.”

At this point, Eric Bickel and Jason Bishop interjected to ask if Frandsen was including Bryce Harper in his evaluation.

“Absolutely,” said Frandsen, who later said he agreed with Matt Williams’s decision to bench Harper for not hustling. “Tony, ah man, that is one of the coolest swings I’ve seen. And especially for, what is he, 23, 24 years old? To be that consistent, to stay inside the baseball as consistently as he can, and to have that much pop. I don’t know how much the outside knows, but he hits balls farther than most people on the team. But he is so good, as far as staying inside and staying within himself, that just impresses me.”

...“I was fortunate enough, in ’06 and ’07, to play with [Barry] Bonds, and I grew up obviously watching him,” said Frandsen, who’s from Northern California. “Tony is not in that league, okay. No one’s in that league. But, those are some of the quickest hands I’ve seen and played with since Bonds. Based off the fact that he is always in the same slot, he’s always hitting out of the same spot every time, and it’s so quick — it’s just like boom – it’s so relaxed, so relaxed, and then it’s all hell breaks loose on that baseball, and it’s pretty cool.”

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They asked everyone, and he's the only one who said something interesting.

Also, if you're only looking at this season (and Frandsen is, since he's only been there this season and the question was specifically about this season), Rendon has been the more more impressive player.

Rendon is a great young player. He handles 2B and 3B very well defensively and he is a great hitter to watch. His swing is short and quick to the ball and he takes the outside pitch the other way with authority. Just a baseball player.

Not sure about Rendon's pedigree from college, but anyone who has watched the Nats play know he's the best young hitter on the team. The only reason this is "controversial" for Fransden to say aloud is due to the oversell of Harper and the cult of his Brycieness.

but anyone who has watched the Nats play know he's the best young hitter on the team. The only reason this is "controversial" for Fransden to say aloud is due to the oversell of Harper and the cult of his Brycieness.

Rendon is having a very good year so far, no question. In his age 24 season (turning 24 in a month) he's got a 131 OPS+ so far. Of course Harper topped that last year, at age 20. But you know, cults and stuff.

The only real concern with Harper, and it's very real, is his inability to stay on the field. But he's obviously the better young player, even if Rendon is also quite good.

I think this actually may end up being close to the final truth. An excellent player, well above-average, but not the world-beating superstar he was projected to be. For different reasons, however -- I really do think that Harper's potential is truly as high as advertised, I just think that he won't be able to fully realize it due to health and mental concerns.

Even if Harper were healthy at the moment, I think it's reasonable to prefer Rendon for the remainder of the season, given positional differences. Harper's potential might be monumental (or it might not be), but Rendon's playing much harder positions to find good bats at and gives nice positional flexibility. This is only a particularly controversial sentiment because players don't normally give actual opinions on these things, but Frandsen didn't say anything inaccurate or unreasonable.

Bubba was highly regarded, BA, Bpro and MLB.com all had him top 30 before he played a professional game, and all soured on him after a full year of Sallie Ball- but he's too young to call a bust yet. (though if he keeps struggling there's got to be some temptation to return to football)

Bubba was highly regarded, BA, Bpro and MLB.com all had him top 30 before he played a professional game, and all soured on him after a full year of Sallie Ball- but he's too young to call a bust yet. (though if he keeps struggling there's got to be some temptation to return to football)

Right -- "whiffed" is probably unfair. Starling wasn't a reach at all; he was considered a top 5 talent at the time. It's just really bad luck in light of what some of those other picks have done.

I was about to say he doesn't look THAT bad...except outside of going nuts in rookie ball for a month he's been at league or below ever since

as a Met fan I've been trying to discern some ray of hope in Finding Nimmo ("Hey he's er, um, willing to take a walk")
but of course right now he's sporting a nifty .363/.507/.478 line in the FSL, so I'm gonna ignore that BABIP spike and pretend he's the second coming of Wade Boggs as long as it lasts.

When Harper is the age Rendon is now, he well may be the better player. Assuming he stays healthy, of course (and that's a big assumption for many of us who fear he'll be this generation's Pete Reiser). But Rendon is solid, a professional hitter who's surprised me in the field, too.

Bryce Harper is the Matt Wieters of Washington.
I think this actually may end up being close to the final truth. An excellent player, well above-average, but not the world-beating superstar he was projected to be. For different reasons, however -- I really do think that Harper's potential is truly as high as advertised, I just think that he won't be able to fully realize it due to health and mental concerns.

Bryce Harper is 20!! Yes, he may not stay healthy but to say that Rendon is a better talent than Harper is sort of silly. He may end up with a better full career (I doubt it but if Harper can't stay healthy, it is a possibility) but he isn't a better talent.

On a previous discussion someone likened Harper's output to Nick Johnson's early years and the hitting stats were almost spot on.
It would truly be a shame if Harper's career turned out to be Johnson redux.

The 25 or 30 Nat's games I've watched so far this year have shown Rendon to be the more accomplished and far steadier player.
Bryce went into a prolonged batting slump and was just beginning to come out of it when he hurt the thumb.

Bryce Harper is 20!! Yes, he may not stay healthy but to say that Rendon is a better talent than Harper is sort of silly. He may end up with a better full career (I doubt it but if Harper can't stay healthy, it is a possibility) but he isn't a better talent.

Isn't that essentially what I said? Harper's talent (I used the word "potential") is sky-high, but as someone who has watched him day-in, day-out for the last 2 & 1/2 years now, I really do think there are grounds for fearing he will "Pete Reiser" himself out of the full realization of that talent. Also -- and hopefully this is just a function of youth -- he strikes me as a rather psychologically 'vulnerable' player. Things get to him and knock him off his game, and it takes him a long time to recalibrate.

None of this is meant to denigrate his raw ability and what he's done thus far (yes, he is only 20!). But the injuries are piling up and will take their toll, and moreover the very nature of them -- i.e., the way they've all been borne of Harper's inability to do anything except bulldoze 99% of the time -- gives ample reason to fear that it will be a recurring phenomenon.

I was about to say he doesn't look THAT bad...except outside of going nuts in rookie ball for a month he's been at league or below ever since

Well, apparently he's a decent defender at 2B, which is useful. He's got plus speed, which is useful. I think his biggest drawback is a lack of power which, coupled with a poor BB ratio, means he's unlikely to ever hit big league pitching. But the bigger picture I was looking at is Springer and Fernandez going behind him (as well as it being yet another example of the horrible, horrible 1st round track record of the team over the past decade plus).

Frandsen is praising Rendon, an under-appreciated & relatively unknown player, who's having a great season thus far. In order to enhance the "newsworthiness" of these comments by the even more unknown Frandsen, the headline spins this as a dig at Harper, which doesn't seem like how it was intended.

#8 - Rendon was considered a good shot to go first or second in the draft but had a shoulder injury all of his Junior year. He couldn't play the field, only DH'd. This scared some teams off and he fell into the Nats lap at 6.

Re: Starling - Not only has he been terrible so far but as a two-sport player he cost a bundle too.

Frandsen is praising Rendon, an under-appreciated & relatively unknown player, who's having a great season thus far. In order to enhance the "newsworthiness" of these comments by the even more unknown Frandsen, the headline spins this as a dig at Harper, which doesn't seem like how it was intended.

But unlike what we saw in that SI piece from Rivera's book, in this case Frandsen was given the opportunity to clarify if he was making the direct comparison to Harper, and he affirmed he was. Whether that's a dig or a slam, I don't know, but he wasn't just praising Rendon in a vacuum.

I wonder if Frandsen carries any residual anti-Harper sentiment from his days in the opposite dugout. His former teammate once threw at Brycey just for sport.

I like this one. Also throw in that another, less-heralded-at-draft-time player on the West Coast is clearly superior in either case (Trout for the Angels, Posey for the Giants), though different years for the drafting.

Wasn't Rendon the best hitter in college baseball when he was at Rice?

He was generally regarded as the best college hitter, and prior to his draft year was regarded as the consensus best overall player, but he fell in the draft a bit as a result of concerns over his health - most notably his ankles. He re-injured his ankle once in the minors, but otherwise he's fortunately been able to stay healthy and continue to develop.

Rendon has NO history of health. Two ankle injuries in college. The shoulder injury that caused his draft stock to drop. Then ANOTHER major ankle in the minors.

He's playing better than Harper right now; true. But he isn't the best young player on the team. And that's not a slight against him. Harper is just a truly unique talent. And to suggest the reason that Rendon is a better player because of his health is crazy; the dude has no track record of heath.

had a shoulder injury all of his Junior yearmost notably his ankles. He re-injured his ankle once in the minors

So at roughly the same ages as Harper, Rendon suffered substantial injuries that temporarily curtailed his ability to play the field and/or play at all.

And y'all are concerned that Harper's fragility makes him a bigger risk than Rendon?

Anyway, when Harper was in the majors, Rendon was in college. Heck while Rendon was in college, Harper was trying to figure out a way to get drafted after his junior year of high school.

And yes, Rendon is an infielder but Frandsen's claim was best hitter not best hitter for his position.

Anyway, Rendon certainly looks solid. The minors numbers are there although not as impressive given his age. The only issue in his ML performance so far is the walk rate. HR/FB is also not particularly impressive (bit above league-average) but not an issue and more power may come. He's benefiting from a 340 BABIP right now but, given his rep and reports, he could well maintain that.

Harper's main hitting problem at the moment is a power outage. By career stats he should have 2 or 3 more HR by now. Give him 2 HR and he's at 306/366/506 which is 2014 Rendon with 25 more points of OBP vs 27 points less SLG.

So get back to me when Rendon proves he's the next Aramis Ramirez and Harper has not refound his power.

Or I can start bragging about 24-year-old Anthony Rizzo's 291/415/491 line.

Among players 24 and under, Rendon's OPS+ is 6th so far this year -- Stanton, Trout, Puig, Rizzo, Freeman. He's the 3rd best-hitting 24-year-old in his own division! :-) There is a big gap between 6 and 7 and then another. In oWAR terms he's tied for 5th.

It's a great time for young hitters and most of those guys ahead of him and Harper have better established MLB performance. We haven't brought in the defensive whizzes yet (Machado, Arenado, Simmons).

Isn't that essentially what I said? Harper's talent (I used the word "potential") is sky-high, but as someone who has watched him day-in, day-out for the last 2 & 1/2 years now, I really do think there are grounds for fearing he will "Pete Reiser" himself out of the full realization of that talent. Also -- and hopefully this is just a function of youth -- he strikes me as a rather psychologically 'vulnerable' player. Things get to him and knock him off his game, and it takes him a long time to recalibrate.

Yeah a lot of talk about a player with 9 career WAR before age 22. What are the odds that Rendon even reaches that for his entire career?

Bubba was highly regarded, BA, Bpro and MLB.com all had him top 30 before he played a professional game, and all soured on him after a full year of Sallie Ball- but he's too young to call a bust yet. (though if he keeps struggling there's got to be some temptation to return to football)

Eh, I don't know. Starling was considered a classic toolsy athlete without a ton of baseball skills - he was highly rated because an athlete like that is always going to be highly rated, but a lot of people were very concerned about his swing and general baseball instincts. He seemed like (and is turning out to be) a classic "It's a trap!" guy who gets drafted highly because of his athleticism by a team that likes to roll the dice (Royals, come on down) but then never actually develops a skill set. EDIT: Not that I'm actually debating anything you actually said.

Rendon had a shoulder injury at the time of the draft which is why he slipped a bit, but even healthy there aren't a ton of guys there he would have leapfrogged. There were also some concerns about his position, partially due to the injuries. Lots of people thought he wasn't going to be able to stick at 3B, 2B wasn't on the table yet, and he wasn't going to play OF. Which left a fairly diminishing set of options.

Bryce Harper is more likely to end up being Eric Davis (career OPS+ of 125 as it turns out) than Matt Wieters, of the 101 OPS+. But, of course, that's his downside. He could still be Frank Robinson very easily if he learns not to hustle himself into injuries and keeps learning the game.