U.S. to propose further nuclear cuts in Moscow

Feb 12 2013

Kommersant

Kirill Belyaninov

Rose Gottemoeller, undersecretary of state for arms control, is expected to propose launching negotiations between Russian and the U.S. on further reductions in nuclear arsenals during her upcoming visits to Russia. Source: AFP / East News

American officials believe that the new move to cut nuclear weapons will save the U.S. and Russia up to $8 billion a year.

The Pentagon believes the
number of warheads allowed by the New START Treaty is still too high and
proposes introducing a limit well below the number specified in the agreement. High-level meetings on the issue are
scheduled between U.S. and Russian officials in mid-February, but, if Moscow
declines, the U.S. may start scrapping warheads unilaterally.

Washington
is setting the stage to propose that Russia scrap more of its nuclear arsenals.
A new dialogue will be opened with Russia during the visit by Undersecretary of
State Rose Gottemoeller, which is slated for Feb. 12. The White House believes
that both countries can half their arsenals without compromising their
security.

During
their meeting in Munich on Feb. 2, Vice President Joseph Biden informed Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that the U.S. was ready to start discussing
additional arms cuts. Sources in the White House claim that the proposal
received a cool reception.

“They are concerned in Russia that the move would
enrage the military and representatives of the military industrial sector, who
have been promised money to develop the SS-27 intercontinental ballistic missile,”
the source said.

The
new proposal stems from a report by the Department of State, the Pentagon, the
National Security Council, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the intelligence service
and the U.S. Strategic Command. The secret memorandum specifies a new list of
targets for U.S. strategic forces.

Iraq
and Syria are no longer on the list of targets, but facilities in Russia,
China, North Korea and Iran do remain among potential targets for U.S.
strategic forces. According to a recent doctrine, a first strike would have
been aimed at destroying a country’s leadership and inflicting “irreparable
damage” on its armed forces. Now, experts believe, the missiles could be
re-targeted at key economic and military facilities.

The
number of such targets is falling. A report by the Federation of American
Scientists (FAS) claims that American missiles had at least 660 missile silos
in Russia “in the cross-hairs.” The number of potential targets has now halved
and is expected to be reduced even more. Analysts believe that the number of
Russian ballistic missiles on combat duty is unlikely to be more than 230 now.

Washington
believes 1,000 to 1,100 warheads would be enough for effective nuclear
containment, according to the most recent scenario. However, the recent New
START agreement allows both Russia and the U.S. to keep a much larger nuclear
stockpile. Under the treaty, each country must have no more than 1,550 warheads
on combat duty by 2018.

The counting system assumes, however, that a single
strategic bomber can carry only one warhead, whereas a bomber can actually
carry up to 20. This rule alone enables each country to have up to 1,900
nuclear warheads.

The
treaty fails to limit the number of short- and intermediate-range warheads, as
well as warheads in storage. According to FAS data, the U.S. has 2,700 such
units, with the respective figure for Russia, at 2,680, being almost the same.

The
Pentagon considers these numbers to be too high. James Kowalski, head of the
Global Strike Command, has called for a reduction in the number of strategic
warheads on combat duty to below the 1,500 limit introduced by the treaty.

Such
a move would almost halve the total American nuclear arsenal, bringing it down
to 2,500 warheads. That could lead to considerable financial savings: a
decision to cancel construction of at least two Trident-class submarines out of
the planned 12 would save $16 billion, while dismantling of one ground-based
strategic missile command would cut U.S. spending by $360 million a year.

Related:

The
details of the report submitted to the president have not yet been revealed.
Even so, the heads of key agencies are known to have backed the new strategy.
Former Sen. Chuck Hagel, who is awaiting the vote on his nomination as
secretary of defense, has confirmed that he said, in a report to the president
last summer, the number of nuclear warheads currently in the inventory of the U.S.
Armed Forces “is much higher than the number required for adequate nuclear
containment.”

Sources
in the White House have confirmed that President Obama supports these
conclusions. A plan for a further reduction in the nuclear arsenal might be
made public within the next few weeks; however, Washington needs to clarify
Russia’s position on this issue.

Both
the undersecretary of state, Rose Gottemoeller, and the national security
advisor in the Obama administration, Thomas Donilon, are expected to propose
launching negotiations on further reductions in nuclear arsenals during their
upcoming visits to Russia. The U.S. is certain that such an agreement could be
framed as a supplement to the START Treaty or as a protocol of intent.

A
source close to the U.S. administration said “if Moscow rejects the proposal,
the White House might seek an affirmative vote by two-thirds of the senators to
start scrapping nuclear warheads unilaterally.”