Thursday, February 19, 2009

Assessing Blunt's Chances

When PPP looked at how Roy Blunt would fare as a Senate candidate in a poll last month we found both good and bad news for him.

The good:

-He polled the closest to Robin Carnahan of any potential GOP contender, trailing her just 45-44.

-He gets a lot of crossover support from Democrats in SW Missouri, which he has represented in Congress. Our early look found him taking almost 25% of the vote within her party away from Carnahan.

-He is much more popular with the Republican base than possible primary opponent Sarah Steelman. 70% of GOP voters view him favorably while only 51% do the same of her.

The bad:

-There are actually more Missouri voters who have an unfavorable opinion of him than a favorable one- 40/43.

-A 42% plurality of independents view him unfavorably with only 37% having a positive opinion off him. For Carnahan those numbers are 40% positive and just 33% negative. Blunt's reputation as a partisan warrior in the GOP House leadership may not go over well with voters who don't identify with either party.

-His son's tenure as Governor could be an albatross for him. As the younger Blunt left office, we found that 50% of Missouri voters thought Jay Nixon was going to be a better leader compared to just 32% who picked the outgoing Governor. The Blunt name may be a liability with some segment of the electorate.