Abstract

Conflict between Erbil and Baghdad over the disputed territories (DIBs) has long been a central destabilising feature of the post-2003 era. However, in recent years, two major events – the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS) in 2014 and the Kurdish inde-pendence referendum of 2017 – have transformed the two-sided dispute over sovereignty into a multi-sided competition between rival military and political groups.This report argues that any framework for resolving the broader conflict between Baghdad and Erbil must first prioritise curbing the continued fragmentation of administrative and security structures at the local level.