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Pier’s P5 Conclusion Slide We believe strongly that DOE should plan to run through FY2010 An early recommendation by P5 would help the planning effort for the lab and collaborations. We [CDF] support this and need as early a decision as possible

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CDF Publication History Publications submitted+accepted+published –~140 Run 2 publications so far ! –On track for ~40 publications in 2007 –We also have >50 additional papers under internal review ! We are publishing our results as we go

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We are just getting started Results from here FY09 and FY10 integrated luminosities assumed to be identical FY10 start 8.6 fb fb -1 Run 2 luminosity projections

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Detector Status - Summary Stable data collection –~85% recorded and ~80% of delivered used in analysis Tracking chamber (COT) –Aging not a problem, will be ok through 2010 Silicon longevity –Expect silicon detector to last beyond 2010 Radiation not expected to be a problem & ISL cooling leak fixed All other systems are also OK High Luminosity running –Inst. Lum expectations are now clear < e 32 Trigger & DAQ  Recently completed upgrade on tracking and calorimeter  We are collecting high-Pt data with high efficiency up to 3e 32 Physics  No significant effect up to 3e 32 Expected to be in good shape through FY10

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Process

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People People are migrating to the LHC [and other experiments] –This is not new, started a long time ago We’ve taken many measures to mitigate the impact on the experiment –We have stabilized, streamlined and automated many tasks in operations and in physics analysis –We spend considerable effort retaining, recruiting and planning ahead But very importantly: Luminosity increase has made a tremendous difference The experiment is running very well Very rich and exciting physics program LHC delays have also made a difference Many opportunities for people to make a mark here: physics and leadership The collaboration age profile is young, yet excellent Try to keep senior people engaged at all levels We have focused our physics program through Higgs search Enough people to run the experiment in FY09 and accomplish the physics

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Analysis process Program driven by intellectual curiosity and the thrill of possibility People tend to go after the physics that are accessible to them first –Pragmatic and sociological reasons Then they push and innovate Especially when they see the possibilities –And things start to come together It is engrained in us to want to make progress We get creative, adaptive and adoptive and, most importantly: we learn from the data all the time One cannot fully lay out a roadmap and know where every measurement or search will end up, given time and more data Sqrt(L) is a myth in hadron collider physics, except at the very very end, when there is nothing left to do but to surrender A few examples of this on the next slides

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Towards the Higgs We have shown some examples where we utilized more data, added additional triggers, added new channels, and developed tools and analysis techniques to drastically improve the analysis –Much of this is making its way into Higgs analyses So what about the Higgs? –Smaller cross section… very challenging, needs all channels, need CDF+D0, and needs lots of data

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August 2006 Higgs Effort at CDF August 2006 Before Summer 06 it was unclear if we would integrate enough luminosity to reach Higgs territory Then things changed !

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CDF Higgs Effort Since Fall 2006, the Higgs effort at CDF intensified –Revisited the entire trigger table to maximize our Higgs acceptance Higgs Trigger Task Force –Launched an additional trigger upgrade to significantly improve acceptance to Higgs in missing energy channels L2 Calorimetry Upgrade –Established a new Physics analysis group, dedicated to the Higg Higgs Discovery Group –Established several working groups to develop algorithmic improvements to further increase our sensitivity jet-E resolution, b-tagging, lepton acceptance, tools –Techniques from other measurements started to be adopted Over the last year there’s been a dramatic infusion of people, effort and ideas, aimed at finding the Higgs

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CDF Higgs Trigger Task Force To open the trigger maximally for Higgs From existing triggers and new ones Expected increase in Higgs events ~ x2

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CDF progression 0.1 fb fb fb -1 1 yr Lum+effort Run 1

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Summer 2007 (Lepton-Photon) CDF & D0 115 <4 x 160 ~2 x SM

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Possibility

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SM Higgs projections Revisited recently Have only included improvements benchmarked in data Two sets of projections –“Minimum achievable” Includes improvements that have already been incorporated in one channel and need to be propagated in all –“Further achievable” Advanced stage but not yet on any analyses X { } avg. sensitivity improvement for all masses

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Other work in progress New triggers from L2 Cal upgrades and new paths from HTTF –In the works: sharp MET efficiency turn-on Forward tracking and forward b-tagging –Tracking is advanced, b-tagging is not yet High-pt b-tagging triggers –A team working on it Improve bb mass resolution –Task force with HDG WZ/WH channels with W,Z=> jets –New people started to look Other ideas we have Other ideas that we’ll have None of this is included [yet] in the “minimum” or “further” achievable improvement factors

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Higgs Summary This is very exciting We are sweeping down in sensitivity towards an exclusion/evidence region At the Higgs Horizon the more luminosity the better –one more year certainly helps The bands of possibility shown here are based on studies with real data and existing tools => achievable factors –Still, it is the state-of-the-art TODAY Psychology changes when you get closer and closer –Loose ends get dealt with, 10% effects matter most, no stone is left unturned - WZ, Bs-mix. and single top are good examples

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More possibility “…. LHC comes, but I find the reality of our data, with all of its bumps and wiggles, to be irresistible …” - a senior member of CDF

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Notes on possibility We already have “fluctuations” in the data Which one is from a real new physics source? The top discovery experience at CDF: –19 pb-1 ~3-sigma EVIDENCE with 13 l+j evts, 2 dileptons –19-40 ~ nothing exciting –40-67 a lot more… DISCOVERY On which third are we today? Some existing new physics sources could have not yet revealed themselves- and we could still have sufficient # of events for a discovery before the end of Run 2 Some may already be there Who knows for sure today? => we keep the door open

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Path Very exciting and rich physics program –Many parts benefit from “as large a dataset as possible” –Higgs search needs that + a large effort We have a chance of saying something very important –There is discovery potential -in general- as we gather more data –Improvements are continuously coming into the game The CDF detector will operate well through FY10 Collaboration committed through FY09 Lab’s commitment to run in FY10 is critical –It has resonated through the collaboration –We hope the PAC endorses this idea Expect P5’s recommendations on HEPAP end of Nov. Very difficult to formally secure resources/people for FY10 until this is firm –The earlier the better, for US and non-US institutions alike We want to run CDF through FY10

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The need for expediency Example: The CDF International Finance Committee met last Tuesday, October 30th –Includes representatives from the funding agencies from all non-U.S. countries that participate in CDF Statements from committee on running in FY10 –Impressed with the program –Impressed with the health of the collaboration and the experiment –Will support running in FY10 if their groups want to do this –But funding for 2010 not requested yet. Need to know Fermilab’s plan to be able to make requests in the next funding cycle For many, this is spring 2008 Question to the community: how soon can we make this plan firm?

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Leak in part of the Silicon cooling system goodbad hole Manifold Cooling Pipes

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Update on ISL cooling leak We formed a task force with the following objectives: –Determine a safe short term operating configuration –Determine probable cause of leak and repair it –Study other potential vulnerabilities in system Results: –Leak caused by a breakdown of Glycol into formic acid which attacked weld joints –Turned off East half of the ISL and L00 for last 300 pb -1 of FY07 until current shutdown. –Recently completed in situ repair and preventive maintenance The full CDF Silicon detector is back ! –New instrumentation and procedures to better keep and monitor the system –Damage was limited to weld joints FIXED => Expect ISL+L00 to be OK for the remainder of Run 2

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Physics Impact Task force to assess impact on physics while ISL/L00 off –Collected 300 pb -1 (10% of total data set to date) with east half of ISL+L00 Off while investigating causes and developing repairs. Conclusions: –Efficiency for adding silicon hits to COT tracks and impact parameter resolution both only moderately affected –Forward electron ID down by ~3% –B-tagging Efficiency down by ~7% per jet Mis-tag rate also down by ~7% Re-optimization could mitigate efficiency loss somewhat –Higgs Total lepton acceptance falls by <5% Acceptance for Events with ==1 Btag falls by ~3% Acceptance for Events with ==2 Btags falls by ~10% The “OFF” data will be used in all analyses - properly calibrated Will affect our physics sensitivity minimally

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Summary Table of February 2007 Resource Survey CY US FTE Non US FTE Total US + Non US Results Post Doc’s Students Numbers in Units of FTE Table represents responses from all 63 institutions

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Comparison to 05 Survey… US FTE (2005)222 (195)127 (91) Non US FTE 2005)170 (125)109 (87) Total (2005)392 (320)236 (178) The delay in LHC turn-on AND the success of the Tevatron Luminosity has resulted in many more FTE’s available for CDF -- a 33% increase from what was projected in 2005