"A Wrong Turn for Guatemalan Democracy" by Anita Isaacs, a professor of political science at Haverford College and the author of the book “From Victims to Citizens: The Politics of Transitional Justice in Postwar Guatemala.” PDF ::

In Guatemala, Jimmy Morales, a right-leaning former television comedian with no government experience, won the presidency after less than half of eligible voters cast ballots on October 25. Morales received 67 percent of the votes — more than double the votes cast for his contender, ex-first lady Sandra Torres. The election came after massive popular protests ousted former President Otto Pérez Molina in September 2015. Pérez Molina is now in jail facing corruption charges. President-elect Jimmy Morales is well known for his starring role in a long-running sketch comedy show, which often featured lewd sketches that some have criticized as being homophobic and sexist. But little is known about Morales’ political platform, although he has unveiled a handful of eccentric proposals, such as tagging teachers with GPS trackers to ensure they attend classes.

With Military Backing, TV Comedian Wins in Guatemala in First Vote Since Jailing of Ex-President ::

[http://goo.gl/iL3kAr] «GIVEN how dramatic #Guatemala’s politics have been of late, it’s fitting that an actor, #JimmyMorales, would cruise to victory over a former first lady, #SandraTorres, in last week’s presidential #elections.»

—Anita Isaacs is a professor of political science at Haverford College and the author of the forthcoming book “From Victims to Citizens: The Politics of Transitional Justice in Postwar Guatemala.”

[http://goo.gl/iL3kAr] «Mr. Morales’s #election came after six months of political upheaval, set off by the exposure of a customs fraud ring operating at the highest levels of government. In response, hundreds of thousands of outraged citizens took to social media and the streets in an overwhelming display of popular unity, culminating in the resignations of #Guatemala’s president, Otto Pérez Molina, and Roxana #Baldetti, its vice president, who now face charges of #corruption and #bribery.

#Guatemalans then rejected a corrupt establishment candidate seeking to replace the president, setting up the Oct. 25 runoff between Mr. Morales and Ms. Torres.»

—Anita Isaacs is a professor of political science at Haverford College and the author of the forthcoming book “From Victims to Citizzens: The Politics of Transitional Justice in Postwar Guatemala.”

[http://goo.gl/iL3kAr] «It’s easy to see this as a victory for #democracy; American #diplomats, eager for stability in the region, want to believe that more than anyone. But we’ve seen this story before: As recent events in the Middle East show, sudden springs of #democracy can quickly fade. #Protests and #elections aren’t enough. The hard work of building democracy begins once the dust settles. And it’s unclear whether #Guatemala is up to the task.»

—Anita Isaacs is a professor of political science at Haverford College and the author of the forthcoming book “From Victims to Citizzens: The Politics of Transitional Justice in Postwar Guatemala.”

[http://goo.gl/iL3kAr] «It’s not as if the country’s dazzlingly corrupt #politics have changed overnight. On a recent trip to #Guatemala, I got a chance to interview Mr. Pérez Molina, the former #president, in jail. “Nothing has really changed in the country except that I am here instead of being in the #presidency,” he said, describing himself and his disgraced colleagues as “scapegoats.”»

—Anita Isaacs is a professor of political science at Haverford College and the author of the forthcoming book “From Victims to Citizens: The Politics of Transitional Justice in Postwar Guatemala.”

RT: [http://goo.gl/iL3kAr] «One doesn’t have to empathize with the man to acknowledge that he’s right. The rule of law prevails so far in his case, but the administration of justice in #Guatemala remains heavily reliant on a #UnitedNations commission set up to root out #corruption and the commitment of a few ethical magistrates and #judges.»

—Anita Isaacs is a professor of political science at Haverford College and the author of the forthcoming book “From Victims to Citizens: The Politics of Transitional Justice in Postwar Guatemala.”

[http://goo.gl/iL3kAr] «And guilty or not, so far Mr. Pérez Molina is indeed taking the fall for the system. The #Congress stripped him of #immunity, thus diverting attention from its own #corruption cloud; in last week’s elections [Sunday, Oct 25], half its deputies were re-elected, and the same three incumbent parties obtained the bulk share of seats. Meanwhile, the [#Guatemalan] Congress is debating the barest minimum of political reforms, and if past efforts are any indicator, its members will most likely make sure that whatever passes will protect their own immunity, along with their economic and political interests.»

—Anita Isaacs is a professor of political science at Haverford College and the author of the forthcoming book “From Victims to Citizens: The Politics of Transitional Justice in Postwar Guatemala.”

RT: [http://goo.gl/iL3kAr] «Mr. Morales has promised to go after corruption, but he can’t clean up Guatemalan politics without the cooperation of Congress. And it’s hard to see that happening: Only 11 of the 158 members of the newly elected Congress belong to his Frente de Convergencia Nacional party.»

«Then there are problems with the F.C.N. itself. It was founded by right-wing #military officers with ties to the same organized criminal networks that have captured #Guatemalan #politics and whose core members are implicated in brutal war #crimes committed during the country’s 36-year civil war [1960-1996]. In fact, one of those veterans has been elected to the new #Congress as a member of Mr. Morales’s party.»

«Campaign advisers, suspected of having direct ties to #postwar political #violence and organized #crime, are rumored to be in the running for high-ranking positions in the Morales administration. As the party’s founder, Gen. José Luis Quilo Ayuso, told me, army veterans are claiming a quota of power in the next administration, in positions “that are of concern to us.”»

«At the same time, powerful business sectors [in #Guatemala] that have historically manipulated the political arena as their personal fief lurk behind Mr. Morales’s fresh political face. Their representatives wax on about the conservative values they share and the close working relationship they have already established with Mr. Morales. They applaud him as a “quick learner” with “an open mind,” a prominent businessman told me, and see his inexperience as an asset.»

«Given this scenario, the burden of building #democracy rests with the #Guatemalan citizens who mobilized over the past six months to overturn the status quo. But the united front that rendered them so effective has been torn apart by a divisive electoral process and the exit of allies in the business community that abandoned street #politics for the familiar corridors of political power. After the #elections an older activist told me: “It’s kind of ironic: We always struggle here, and we always lose.”»

«#Fear, which had been absent from the protests of the past six months, is also creeping back in. The #activists know they avoided #repression mainly because their #protests remained peaceful, and worry that a return to #politics as usual under Mr. Morales could incite popular #frustration that spills over into violent acts, providing the government with an excuse to silence them. General Quilo threatened as much, stating that protesters were free to demonstrate as long as they were well behaved — refraining, in his words, from “dirtying walls or attacking cars.”»

«There is nothing inevitable about bad endings to democratic springs. The trajectory of #democracy is messy and circuitous. But the possibility of wrong turns, like the one #Guatemala seems to be taking, can be canceled as long as #Guatemalan democrats and their international partners are vigilant, wise and committed. As Nineth Montenegro, the congresswoman at the center of the reformist fight, told me, “We haven’t done all this work to give up now.”»

—Anita Isaacs is a professor of political science at Haverford College and the author of the forthcoming book “From Victims to Citizens: The Politics of Transitional Justice in Postwar Guatemala.”

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