Monday, August 31, 2015

NCAAF SBPI: Top 30 Teams of Last Six Seasons (2009-2014) FINAL Installment

About two weeks ago we posted teams ranked #30 to #21 according to our SBPI over the last six college football season (dating back to & including 2009). Here is our final installment which outlines teams ranked #20 down to #1!

After approximately two years of tweaks & statistical
work we published the NCAAF SBPI (SportsBoss Power Index) for the first time
last season.As a reminder the SBPI is a
power index we have formulated for the NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB & NBA that takes
various statistics we have tested & confirmed have the most significant
impact on team performance, adjusts for SOS & provides a power rating we
can use to compare vs. the lines Vegas gives us each week.Here are the SBPI rankings of
each national champion since 2009 (which is how far we back-tested the model):

·2009: Alabama #2

·2010: Auburn #12

·2011: Alabama #2

·2012: Alabama #1

·2013: Florida State #2

·2014: Ohio State #3

As we can see above FIVE of the SIX national champs were
ranked inside the Top 3 with four of the six being ranked #1 or #2.Remember, this model is PURELY based on
statistics & is not adjusted for anything else including wins & losses.Based on the results above we see how well
this model projects the strength of teams.For more information on the NCAA SBPI in years 2009 to 2013 see
here.

Of course each of the four SBPI ratings are calculated using
different weights & variables – however, each comes to the same end result:
a power rating.

Here is a small matrix that shows how many teams per season are
inside the Top 30 teams of the last six seasons:

- All rankings listed in team bio’s below refers to opponent
rankings when game was played

#20 Georgia
Bulldogs 2011 [262.4, 10-4, #177, #136, #7]: these Bulldogs bookended
their season with a pair of losses against good competition; opening week they
lost to #5 Boise State 35-21 followed by a Week Two loss vs. South Carolina
45-42.They ended their season losing
the SEC Championship Game 42-10 to #1 LSU followed by an Outback Bowl loss to
#17 Michigan State 33-30 in 3OT.

#19 Florida State
Seminoles 2013 [264.2, 14-0, #363, #52, #38]: the ’13 Noles were
dominant on the scoreboard going undefeated & winning only ONE GAME during
the regular season by less than 28 points (and that was still a 14 point win at
Boston College).They hammered #20 Duke
in the ACC Championship Game 45-7, advancing to the National Championship Game
where they beat #2 Auburn 34-31 in a very exciting matchup that saw the Noles
come back from a big early hole.

#18 Ohio State
Buckeyes 2010 [266.5, 12-1, #387, #60, #30]: Jim Tressel’s last
Buckeyes team, the ’10 version, was his only to make this countdown as they
went 12-1 with their only loss coming at #18 Wisconsin 31-18.They went on to beat #8 Arkansas 31-26 in the
Sugar Bowl, ending their extended losing to the SEC.

#16 TCU Horned Frogs
2009 [272.5, 12-1, #362, #59, #17]: this is the lowest ranked of THREE
TCU teams in this countdown (only Alabama has more appearances), the ’09
version which ran the table in the regular season (including two close wins:
14-10 win at Clemson & 20-17 win at Air Force) before losing 17-10 to #6
Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.They
would leverage this strong season to perform even better in 2010 (see #12 just
below).

#15 Boise State
Broncos 2010 [272.8, 12-1, #444, #33, #37]: the ’10 Broncos were coming
off a 14-0 season & were looking to leverage that season with more success
to possibly crash the national championship picture following a 33-30 win over
#10 Virginia Tech & a 37-24 win over #24 Oregon State; however, after
starting 10-0, they dropped a tough 34-31 game at #19 Nevada (multiple kicking
blunders late in that game), costing them a potential BCS bid at worst.They went on to easily handle #19 Utah 26-3
in the Las Vegas Bowl, but this will always be a season remembered for “what
if” by Boise State fans.

#14 TCU Horned
Frogs 2014 [274.0, 12-1, #210, #24, #42]: the ’14 Horned Frogs were so
close to earning a spot in the inaugural CFB Playoff after posting an 11-1 mark
in the regular season; unfortunately they blew a huge lead at Baylor (losing game
61-58), forcing a tie for the Big 12 regular season title (they did not have a
conference championship game) & likely keeping both those teams out of the
playoff.TCU flexed some muscle to show
they possibly belonged by hammering SEC member #9 Ole Miss 42-3 in the Peach
Bowl.

#13 Alabama
Crimson Tide 2013 [276.2, 11-2, #180, #14, #47]: this Alabama team
entered the Iron Bowl undefeated with the SEC West crown on the line and lost
to Auburn 34-28 on the missed FG return by Chris Davis.Understandably they never recovered following
that excruciating loss which was followed up by a 45-31 loss to Bob Stoops’
& #11 Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl.

#12 TCU Horned
Frogs 2010 [277.0, 13-0, #423, #15, #44]: coming on the heels of a 12-1
season these Horned Frogs produced Gary Patterson’s only undefeated season,
going 13-0.Unfortunately they played
just two ranked teams all season – opening with a 30-21 win over Oregon State
& hammering #5 Utah in Salt Lake City 47-7 in early November – which kept
them out of the National Championship discussion.Instead they went to the Rose Bowl and beat
Big Ten Champion #5 Wisconsin 21-19.TCU
& Patterson leveraged these back-to-back seasons into Big 12 membership,
which started in 2012.

#11 Alabama
Crimson Tide 2009 [278.5, 14-0, #77, #78, #3]: Saban’s only undefeated
team in his coaching career won 14 games including beating #1 Florida as an
underdog in the SEC Championship Game followed by hoisting his first National
Championship with Alabama after beating #2 Texas 37-21 (ranked #27 in this
countdown), who was without the services of star QB Colt McCoy.

#10 Alabama
Crimson Tide 2010 [278.6, 10-3, #128, #35, #21]: this 3 loss Bama team
was the most losses Nick Saban has had in a season with the Crimson Tide.They lost by 14 at South Carolina along with
two close losses at #10 LSU 24-21 & vs. Auburn 28-27.As you may have figured, after suffering
through three regular season losses, the Tide was focused in their bowl game
and hammered Michigan State 49-7.

#9 Ohio State Buckeyes
2014 [279.4, 14-1, #101, #8, #48]: the first CFB Playoff champion
checks in at #9 on this countdown.After
losing their home opener in Wk2 to Virginia Tech they rumbled through the rest
of the season culminating in a 42-35 semifinal win over #1 Alabama followed by
a 42-20 beat down of #2 Oregon; keep in mind the Big Ten Championship Game
(59-0 win over #13 Wisconsin) & both CFB Playoff games were quarterbacked
by their 3rd stringer Cardale Jones.Ironically, according to my SBPI, they were just the 3rd best
team of the 2014 season & the 2nd best team in the Big Ten!But as they always say, that’s why the games
are played on the field – whoever plays best on that given day earns the title
champion.

#8 Alabama Crimson
Tide 2011 [281.9, 12-1, #106, #55, #6]: only loss for the Tide in 2011
was 9-6 at home to #1 LSU in what was touted the “Game of the Century.”That loss kept Alabama from the SEC
Championship Game but they still earned a spot in the National Championship
Game where they avenged the regular season loss to LSU (the ’11 LSU team ranked
#6 in this countdown) by beating the Tigers 21-0.

#7 Michigan State
Spartans 2014 [285.9, 11-2, #199, #9, #36]: to the surprise of many,
including myself, the ’14 Spartans checked in as the 2nd best team
that season – only behind Alabama just ahead of Ohio State – but they lost
their two biggest games of the season which cost them a potential spot in the
CFB Playoff.A 2nd half
meltdown in Eugene (they led 28-13), where they were outscored 28-3, led to a
46-27 loss to Oregon (an eventual CFB Playoff team); they also were tied with
Ohio State (eventual national champion) 21-21 late in first half before losing
49-37 in East Lansing, which was the proverbial nail in their coffin.The ’14 season for the Spartans will always
be a question of what “could have been” if they had played a cupcake vs. taking
a trip out west to face Oregon – it probably would not have changed much
considering both Big 12 teams were left out with 1 loss, but we will never know
for certain.

#6 LSU Tigers 2011
[287.4, 13-1, #39, #62, #1]: the #1 defense of the last six years
according to SBPI was the 2011 LSU Tigers, who went through the regular season
undefeated including allowing more than 11 points just once in SEC play (17 vs.
#3 Arkansas) & beating EIGHT ranked teams including two on this
countdown.Unfortunately it did not lead
to a National Championship as in their 2nd meeting of the season vs.
Alabama (they won in Tuscaloosa 9-6 in OT on November 6) they were shutout 21-0
in New Orleans.

#5 Stanford
Cardinal 2010 [288.4, 12-1, #53, #2, #59]: the only Stanford or Harbaugh
team to make this countdown is his 4th & final season Cardinal
team that went 12-1 with their only loss coming at #4 Oregon 52-31 (that Ducks
team ranked #4 in this countdown).

#4 Oregon Ducks
2010 [289.8, 12-1, #74, #6, #28]: the only Chip Kelly team to make this
countdown was the 2010 version that ran the table in the regular season before
losing to #1 Auburn in the National Championship Game (that Auburn team was the
only National Champion that was not ranked in the SBPI Top 3 when winning the
title).

#3 Alabama Crimson
Tide 2014 [299.6, 12-2, #2, #3, #31]: only regular season loss was at
#11 Ole Miss 23-17.Despite that loss
they won the SEC Championship Game & reached the inaugural CFB Playoff
where they were upset by Ohio State 42-35 (those Buckeyes check in at #9 in our
countdown here).Of course OSU went on
to win the 2014 National Championship.

#2 Florida Gators
2009 [299.7, 13-1, #156, #17, #5]: this Tim Tebow led Gators team was
on a 22 game winning streak that dated back to 2008 when they met #2 Alabama
(#11 in this countdown) in one of the most anticipated SEC Championship Games
the conference has seen; unfortunately for Florida they were blown out 32-13,
costing them a shot at winning back to back national titles.Interestingly this Gators team played just
one ranked team during the regular season – a 13-3 win at #4 LSU; in the “postseason”
they faced two – losing to #2 Alabama followed by winning the Sugar Bowl over
#3 Cincinnati 51-24.

#1 Alabama Crimson
Tide 2012 [305.9, 13-1, #107, #11, #4]: only loss of season was to
Johnny Manziel led #15 Texas A&M 29-24.Alabama went on to win the SEC Championship Game 32-28 over Georgia
& followed that by winning the National Championship Game 42-14 over Notre
Dame (#26 in this countdown).

We have 17 different schools making up the Top 30 teams
according to SBPI over the last six seasons.Here is a matrix showing each school & the season(s) they are listed
above:

Alabama (6)

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

TCU (3)

2009

2010

2014

Florida (2)

2009

2012

Georgia (2)

2011

2014

Michigan State (2)

2013

2014

Ohio State (2)

2010

2014

Oregon (2)

2010

2013

Stanford (2)

2010

2013

Arkansas (1)

2014

Auburn (1)

2014

Baylor (1)

2013

Boise State (1)

2010

Florida State (1)

2013

LSU (1)

2011

Notre Dame (1)

2012

Texas (1)

2009

Washington (1)

2013

As many would expect Alabama leads the list with EACH of the
last six seasons performances placing them inside the Top 30.TCU stands alone in 2nd with 3
seasons inside the Top 30 – which may come as a small surprise.

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