Sunday, June 24, 2007

Jonah Keri = not an idiot

One of the major problems I have with most (if not all) Reds fans is their belief that Adam Dunn is not a valuable player because he strikes out way too much. They base their anti-Dunn argument on his strikeout totals and his sub-par defense in left field. Of course by doing so they completely neglect his 40+ homer potential and yearly .900+ OPS, not to mention the fact that Dunn is only 28 years old and likely entering his prime offensive years. Here's to hoping that other MLB general managers are swayed by Dunn's strikeout totals and choose not to make fair offers for Adam Dunn. [Of course, in Wayne Krivsky's case, a fair deal usually means a grossly lopsided deal where the Reds get screwed.] Dunn could (SHOULD) be our foundation for the next 8 years.

After I defended Dunn on air, I got a bunch of angry e-mails from other Reds fans, listing Dunn's supposedly numerous faults, the biggest one being his complete inability to drive runners home, especially in "clutch" situations.

Here are Dunn's averages over the past three seasons:Situation: AVG/OBP/SLG

All: .249/.380/.533

Scoring position: .236/.434/.538

Scoring position, 2 out: .249/.460/.534

If there's an overarching pattern, I'm not seeing it. Strip out intentional walks and Dunn's the same hitter with or without runners in scoring position...Dunn is one of the best hitters in the game, period.

109 comments:

Anonymous
said...

Terrible defensive player + average base runner + good (use this term lightly) hitter = designated hitter. Cincinnati Reds = National league team with no DH. Conclusion Adam Dunn = AL DH. Get over it - the Reds blow, Dunn is expensive and not very useful to an NL team. Get younger, cheaper and get some pitching while waiting for Bruce and Votto to team with Hamilton, Phillips, EE and in the future Valaika, etc. Dunn making $13 mil next year on a sub 500 team with no chance he is back in 09 is a great idea.

Radio request ... can you email me about being a guest on my sports talk show in Cincinnati? My name is Gregg Doyel and I'm on 9 a.m. to noon, weekdays, with Mo Egger on AM 1530. Email address is gregg@1530homer.com.

Adam Dunn sucks. Did you watch the game Sunday? Adam Dunn = Loss. Wayne Krivsky is an idoit, cause he has not yet traded "The Donkey". I would take Bo Diaz for Adam Dunn. Would you rather have Torii Hunter or Adam Dunn? Dunn is due to make more money than Hunter. Bottom Line: 13 Million is way to much for a guy that strikes out 200 times a year.

That argument is kind of like getting into a time machine, going back to the 80's, and begging the Milwaukee Brewers to keep Rob Deer. Dunn is a poor fielder and strikes out way too much. Since the Reds play in the National League, there is no reason to keep a DH on their roster. Try to get something for him while you still can.

Thank God somebody understands the value of Dunn. Cincy fans are in love with no pop, scrappy players that all cant hold Dunn's jock. It's sad, embarrassing and pathetic. I almost wish he can leave Cincy so he could go somewhere where he will be appreciated. And to see people continually deny and overlook the stats that say Dunn is a good, almost great hitter, is laughable.

It's really too bad some are still posting batting average in 2007. It's even sadder that they don't realize that the K can actually help you by not resulting in a double play. Most on base situations involve a guy on first. Not to the tune of 190 Ks of course, but that's just focussing on the negative.

I agree. Load up on guys with low BAs and tons of Ks. Batting average certainly does not guage a player's worth better than other stats, but is there anything more simple than how many times can you pick up a base hit for me? I love how people throw it away like average does not tell you anything. Maybe if he could hit .260 it would not matter so much, but .240s is pathetic.

The difference between .260 and .240s is about 8 or 9 bleeders through the infield over the course of a 162 game season. Is that a big difference? But a .260 hitter would make you happy? And you wonder why BA is not very useful in evaluating hitters?

My new favorite website. If you need someone to contribute, I have a library of Dunn arguments. Like:

Would you want a guy who was first or second in the league in striking out as a batter for 11 straight years?"No, that's ridiculous. Why would I want that whiffing freak?"League rank in K's: 1-2-2-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-4-5-9-2-9That's George Herman Motherhumping Ruth from 1918 to 1934.

Thank God there are Reds fans who don't think Dunn is the worst hitter ever. Retards that don't know anything about baseball give him a hard time.

Hopefully there are still GMs around that are as big of dimwits that won't give up enough to convince that dropkick Krivsky to part with Dunn. Though it would take an exceptionally slow mouth-breather to not be able to outwit that lobotomy patient.

If Dunn seemed to give an ounce of shit for winning baseball it would be different. He is a homerun/walk collector who statnerds love because they never use their eyes to judge a player. OPS is a great stat when used as one tool among multiple tools to judge a player. Everyone dismisses the 20 - 30 runs Dunn gives up by letting singles become doubles, doubles become triples and outs become basehits. He is lazy, slow and shows no interest in getting better. Dunn just got Narron fired. If he would work on his game instead of being the exact same player he was five years ago, he would get more leeway. He still is a dead pull, high K, high walk, defensive nightmare - the exact same thing he was in 2002. His stat line is too consistent. Great players get more productive in their late twenties. OBP, HRs, RBIs increase while negatives like Ks decrease. Dunn is a 40 HR 90 - 100 RBI player with no chance on increasing to a 50-55 HR, 120+ RBI guy. ManRam is bad in the outfield, but he drives in 130+. I would rather see Jay Bruce take his lumps and work his way into a great player than watch Dunn continue to be an ok hitter/walk machine who never improves, even in what should be his prime. Good job Adam, you got Jerry Narron fired.

Anon, you write: "Dunn is a 40 HR 90 - 100 RBI player with no chance on increasing to a 50-55 HR, 120+ RBI guy."

Who is a 50-55 HR, 120+ RBI guy? Pujols? A-Rod? Griffey & Bonds in their prime? Sammy Sosa in his steroid induced prime? Notice something about those guys? THEY ARE ALL-TIME GREATS. Who is saying Adam Dunn is an all-time great? I'm saying for $10 MM per year (which is almost 1/3 of A-Rod's salary), Dunn is putting up great numbers. For the Reds' purposes and budget, he is an AMAZING fit. But thanks for breaking that headline that Dunn is not the next Pujols or Babe Ruth, I'll be sure to let the New York Times know about it. That's great insight. Thanks for your input, though. Keep coming back.

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