Aruba, December 27, 2013 - The BND said the U.S. shale boom would have a greater impact on global markets than it predicted in a previous analysis earlier this year. "The effects from the unconventional production of oil and natural gas in the United States will be pronounced over the next 10 to 20 years," the report said.

It added that it now expects global oil prices to sink substantially, which will cause considerable problems for gas and oil producers such as Russia and Libya and trigger changes in the Middle East. The report said such changes would cause the biggest risks for Iran, Libya, Venezuela and Yemen, because the governments in these producer countries were banking on high prices.