Sunday, January 25, 2009

The real financial collapse will occur when there is a worldwide run on the dollar. I’ve often wondered when that momentous process will begin, and if you believe one of the articles below, it will start with a deliberate inflationary policy in China.

Thanks to C. Cantoni, Fausta, Insubria, JD, Man of the Woods, VH, and all the other tipsters who sent these in. Headlines and articles are below the fold.- - - - - - - - -

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) — Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance company under federal control, needs as much as $35 billion more in federal aid, and Fannie Mae may soon ask the U.S. Treasury Department for rescue funds as well.

Freddie, which took $13.8 billion from Treasury in November, said in a securities filing yesterday that its fourth- quarter operating losses will again drive its net worth below zero. The McLean, Virginia-based company also said it settled a dispute over Washington Mutual loans with JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The request for funds comes as the Treasury faces increasing demands from U.S. financial companies, including Bank of America and Citigroup Inc., that are coping with the fallout from a slumping housing market and a deep recession that’s driving foreclosures to record levels. Treasury officials pledged in September as much as $100 billion to Fannie and Freddie each to ensure their solvency.

“Their losses are going to be much higher than anyone anticipated,” said Paul Miller, an analyst with FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia. “The more and more that people are digging into these portfolios, they’re finding out the more and more these guys were doing subprime and Alt-A loans and classifying them as prime.” Alt-A loans were made to borrowers with little or no income verification or to those with credit scores slightly above subprime.

This morning I asked Rush for his thoughts on all this, and here is his response:

There are two things going on here. One prong of the Great Unifier’s plan is to isolate elected Republicans from their voters and supporters by making the argument about me and not about his plan. He is hoping that these Republicans will also publicly denounce me and thus marginalize me. And who knows? Are ideological and philosophical ties enough to keep the GOP loyal to their voters? Meanwhile, the effort to foist all blame for this mess on the private sector continues unabated when most of the blame for this current debacle can be laid at the feet of the Congress and a couple of former presidents. And there is a strategic reason for this.

[…] If I can be made to serve as a distraction, then there is that much less time debating the merits of the trillion dollar debacle.

One more thing, Byron. Your publication and website have documented Obama’s ties to the teachings of Saul Alinksy while he was community organizing in Chicago. Here is Rule 13 of Alinksy’s Rules for Radicals:

Russell Tice has dropped another bombshell. More than two years after he leaked the existence of the NSA’s warrantless wiretapping program to the New York Times in late 2006, Tice says warrantless wiretaps specifically targeted journalists and news organizations — all day, every day.

The original outrage over the warrantless wiretapping arose out of what appeared to be (though it was never confirmed) a massive data mining effort on the part of the NSA that routinely — and without apparent concern for the search and seizure requirements of the Fourth Amendment — redirected untold numbers of communications onto NSA super computers for analysis. The latest allegations, flushed out over the course of two interviews with MSNBC anchor Keith Olbermann, reveal the outline of other shadowy efforts by the NSA whose existence had previously been the subject of speculation.

[…]

Tice, who was canned by the NSA after uncovering the wiretapping program and lives under constant surveillance, alleged that superiors at the NSA informed him that news organizations were monitored at all times to, well, ensure that freedom of the press would remain sacrosanct. Active monitoring of particular organizations is a rather different beast, however, than the algorithmic data mining that was the source of the initial controversy and remains the subject of litigation.

DES MOINES, Iowa — Amid the pomp, circumstance and celebration of welcoming a new president, an artist in Iowa created an inaugural parade sure to draw attention, even hundreds of miles from Washington, D.C.: Barack Obama, riding on a donkey, complete with waving palm fronds and “Secret Service” escort.

As WND reported, Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan declared in October that when Obama talks, “the Messiah is absolutely speaking.” But artist Matthew J. Clark’s parade — marching Obama through the streets of Des Moines in similar fashion to Jesus’ triumphal entry into Jerusalem — takes the messianic imagery even farther.

Since its inception in 1953, every new president has attended The Salute to Heroes Inaugural Ball — until now.

The ball was created for President Dwight Eisenhower’s inauguration to honor recipients of the Medal of Honor, the nation’s highest military award. The event is sponsored by the American Legion and co-sponsored by 13 other veteran’s service organizations, including the Paralyzed Veterans of America and the Military Order of the Purple Heart.

And while 48 of the nation’s 99 living recipients of the Medal of Honor attended the event, reports the Cleveland Leader and various self-attested attendees of the ball, newly sworn-in President Barack Obama became the first president in 56 years to skip out on the ceremony.

Obama’s itinerary on Inauguration Day, however, did include attendance at 10 balls in his honor, many of which were graced by a cast of the nation’s biggest music and movie stars.

Who loves Lucy? Far fewer people than a Seattle science center hoped when officials paid millions to show the fossil remains of one of the earliest known human ancestors.

Halfway through the five-month exhibit, the Pacific Science Center faces a half-million-dollar loss resulting in layoffs of 8 percent of the staff, furloughs and a wage freeze, President Bryce Seidl said Friday.

[…]

The Lucy show cost the center about $2.25 million, Seidl estimated. That includes a $500,000 fee to Ethiopia, which plans to use the money for cultural and scientific programs.

The BZÖ wants to buy the wreckage of Joerg Haider’s car for 40,000 euros from the lease company that owns the wreckage. They want to do such in order to preserve this item of investigation.

The party wants to keep the wreckage until all investigations into the fatal accident of the former governor of Carinthia are completed. After that they maybe think of involving an artist so that the wreckage of the car may achieve a monumental status.

LONDON, Jan 23 (APP)—The British Parliament has cancelled the showing of a controversial film “Fitna” by the right-wing Dutch MP Geert Wilders following vociferous protest by the Muslim community.

The screening was to take place on January 29 at the House of Lords.

The decision to cancel the showing was taken on Friday when Lord Nazir Ahmed had a meeting with the Government Chief Whip of the House of Lords and Leader of the House of Lords, together with representatives from the Muslim Council of Britain, British Muslim Forum and other representatives from the British Muslim community.

The film has created huge controversy around the world, especially in Europe. The decision by the Amsterdam Appeals Court, the second-highest legal authority in the country, overturns an earlier ruling by the Dutch Prosecution Service, which last June dismissed hundreds of complaints against Wilders on the grounds that his utterances had been made “in the context of public debate”, a position that was endorsed by the Dutch Prime Minister, Jan Peter Balkenende, a Christian Democrat.

But on Thursday, the appeals court argued that the criminal prosecution did not conflict with Wilders’ right to freedom of expression and said it based its decision on the standards set by the European Court of Human Rights.

The Far-right Dutch politician will now be put on trial for his public statements against Islam. As a result of the meeting at the House of Lords not going ahead, all protests and demonstrations have now been cancelled Lord Ahmed termed the decision as “a victory for the Muslim community.”

“Communitarianism is a collectivist philosophy that explicitly rejects individualism. It does not merely relegate individualism to a subordinate position, but is openly hostile to it. It is an ideology of ‘civic society’ which is nothing less than one version of Post-Marxist collectivism which wants privileges for certain wealthy and influential organized groups, and in consequence, a renewed feudalization of society.” —Vaclav Klaus.

Communitarianist Ideology The European Union is a major aspect of the ‘New World Order’ and the so called ‘sustainable development’ movement. The main objective of the Federal European State to be, is absolute social, personal and economic control in a collectivist and corporatist society. The philosophy behind the EU is a strange mixture of Capitalism and Communism — a form of Euro Marxism which owes much of its dogma to the Pre World War II Italian Marxist Philosopher, Antonio Gramsci.. The nearest ideology to that practiced by the EU is something called ‘Communitarianism’, or what Tony Blair called the ‘Third Way’..

We are talking of a dialectical trap here, with Corporate money funding Socialism as Thesis, ideological Socialism as Antithesis and Communitarianism or the ‘new imperium’ as Synthesis. Money grabs and concentrates power, whilst State Socialism promises the total redistribution of ownership and wealth. This contradiction provides an almost irresistible dynamic.

(ANSAmed) — MADRID, JANUARY 20 — King Juan Carlos will be in Libya on Thursday January 22, as a part of his first official visit to the country, accompanied by a delegation of Spanish entrepreneurs interested in local business opportunities in the gas and energy sectors. The Spanish Head of State, sources from the Foreign Ministry inform, will be in Libya on the invitation of leader Muammar Gaddaffi, whose last visit to Spain was in December of 2007. Spain has been the third most important client for Libya for the last twenty years, with an import volume of 11%, after Italy and Germany; while Spanish export volume to the North African country has left a lot to be desired. In fact, during his visit to Spain, Gaddaffi stressed the necessity for Libya “to attract European investment to create multi-tiered development, employment and to reduce poverty”. The Libyan Colonel estimates the value of business opportunities in his country to be at 12 billion euro. (ANSAmed).

(ANSAmed) — MADRID, JANUARY 22 — The Spanish Premier, José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, today ruled out the idea that his government would adopt measures aimed at limiting the purchasing of foreign products in Spain. In a joint press conference with the Portuguese Prime Minister, José Socrates, held following a today’s bilateral summit in Zamora, Zapatero defended the Spanish Industry Minister, Miguel Sebastian, who yesterday urged Spaniards to replace 150 euro-worth of foreign products they might buy with 150 euro-worth of ‘Made in Spain’ products. “Sebastian is a strong supporter of free trade and has a long history of working against protectionism”, said the premier, who was quoted by press agencies. “Neither he, nor anyone else will restrict the consumption of foreign products — of course not!”, added Zapatero who, despite this, emphasised the need to improve the competitiveness of Spanish products, because part of the money that Spanish citizens spend on imported goods could “go to a Spanish alternative instead, without any loss in quality”. The prime minister said that the defence of Spanish products made by Sebastian seems quite “reasonable” to him, and stated the he himself is ready to promote “Made in Spain wherever”. “If I must choose, I choose Spanish”, he concluded. (ANSAmed).

(ANSAmed) — MADRID, JANUARY 21- The Treasury will issue public-debt bonds for 86.5 billion euro to cover 68pct more government financing than the 51.3 billion provided last year. According to sources from the Treasury cited by the press, the public debt will go from currently 39.5pct of the Gdp to 47.3pct in 2009 in order to finance Spanish economic support plans. Among the economic support plans is a credit acquisition fund from banks and savings institutions and the economic stimulus and employment plan, which were not included in the 2009 budget. (ANSAmed)

PARTS of the United Kingdom have become so heavily dependent on government spending that the private sector is generating less than a third of the regional economy, a new analysis has found.

The study of “Soviet Britain” has found the government’s share of output and expenditure has now surged to more than 60% in some areas of England and over 70% elsewhere.

Experts believe the recession will tighten the state’s grip still further as benefit handouts soar and Labour directs public sector organisations to create jobs to soak up unemployment.

In the northeast of England the state is expected to be responsible for 66.4% of the economy this year, up from 58.7% when a similar study was carried out four years ago. When Labour came to power, the figure was 53.8%.

[…]

Across the whole of the UK, 49% of the economy will consist of state spending, while in Wales, the figure will be 71.6% — up from 59% in 2004-5. Nowhere in mainland Britain, however, comes close to Northern Ireland, where the state is responsible for 77.6% of spending, despite the supposed resurgence of the economy after the end of the Troubles.

Even in southern England, the government’s share of spending is growing relentlessly. In the southeast, it has gone up from 33% to 36% of the economy in four years.

The state now looms far larger in many parts of Britain than it did in former Soviet satellite states such as Hungary and Slovakia as they emerged from communism in the 1990s, when state spending accounted for about 60% of their economies.

City law firm Taylor Wessing is believed to be working on a plan to create a bank backed by six leading UK listed corporates disenchanted with the failing lending institutions in the Square Mile.

The firms are thought to have sounded out Glenn Cooper, the banking veteran famed for floating Manchester United, to head the new bank.

A City source said: “These guys are totally fed up with the problems with the inertia, so are looking to get together and create an institution that can lend to small and medium-sized firms. Given that most banks have horribly messy balance sheets, they figure it’s easier to start from scratch.”

The group of firms, which is thought to include one FTSE 250 company, is believed to have begun working on the plan late last year. The bank would look to use wholesale funding lines, guaranteed by government, that would lend to firms. Tentative approaches to government officials are thought to have been made.

An army of accountants is combing through the books, trying to establish just how much the toxic assets of the bailed-out banks are actually worth. At stake, says the Government, is the future of Britain’s economy.

No one even knows exactly how many of these toxic assets British banks are holding, and how much more it might cost the taxpayer to get out of this unholy mess — which is why an army of accountants is about to begin the daunting, if not downright impossible, task of tracking down and putting a value on all the debts of all the banks in which the taxpayer has taken a stake.

In effect, to borrow Sir Fred’s analogy, the Government-appointed debt hunters will be carrying out the accounting equivalent of dissecting all of those sausages and turning the constituent parts back into pigs. It will be a laborious, thankless task which is likely to take at least six months. But according to the Government, nothing less than the future of Britain’s economy depends on it.

The reason all the rescue packages have failed is that no one has yet calculated the full extent of these toxic assets — and nothing spooks the City so much as uncertainty. Lord Myners, the minister organising the hunt, says his sleuths will have to deal with “well over a billion items of individual data for each bank”.

Latest City figures reveal that the plummeting stock market and plunging house prices have wiped out £1.2 trillion of Britain’s national wealth

Every taxpayer in the country has lost almost £40,000 since the onset of the credit crunch, as plunging house prices and the savage sell-off in stock markets have obliterated £1.2 trillion of Britain’s national wealth.

The combined impact of the property downturn and the slide in share prices has wiped out the equivalent of a full year’s economic output, according to research by analyst Dharval Joshi at City bank RAB Capital, £38,700 for every one of Britain’s 31 million taxpayers.

“We’re only halfway through; there’s more destruction to come before we stabilise,” said Joshi, predicting that as much as £2 trillion could be knocked off the value of assets.

(ANSAmed) — ZAGREB, JANUARY 23 — In November last year, the average salary paid in Croatia was of 5,063 kune (around 703.6 euro). This figure comes from a Croatian agency, as cited by Italy’s Trade Commission in Zagreb. This base-line represents an increase of 1% in nominal terms, and of 1.1% in real terms on October last year. The same figures show that average wages stood at 4,933 kune (around 685.1 euro), over the first eleven months of the year, or 6.6% up in nominal terms and an increase of 0.2% in real terms compared to the same period in 2007. (ANSAmed).

(ANSAmed) — ZAGREB, JANUARY 23 — The European Commission intends to supply financial assistance for the construction of gas pipeline between Slavonski Brod and Donji Miholjac, across Croatia and Hungary. This was announced during an official visit to Croatia by Fabrizio Barbaso, Deputy Director of the general executive for energy and traffic at the European Commission. Barbaso — who also met Croatiàs Prime Minister, Ivo Sanader — noted that the EU, as part of its combating the international financial crisis, has adopted a plan assigning 3.5 billion dollars for projects in the energy sector Europe-wide. The European Commission was also said to be interested in taking part in the projected construction of a liquid gas terminal in Omialj. (ANSAmed).

(ANSAmed) — ROME, JANUARY 23 — “2008 was a very traumatic year for Serbia, and for the whole region. 2009 has to be the year in which we turn in the right direction of integration with Europe, not just for Serbia, but for the whole of the western Balkans”. The Serb Foreign Minister was speaking at the conclusion of today’s meeting at the Italian Foreign Ministry with Franco Frattini, which was mainly dedicated to Serbiàs progress towards the European Union. “The time has come to step up this process”, Jeremic announced, pointing out that there is to be an important EU-Serbia meeting in Brussels on Monday, where the Belgrade government will introduce “its own plans” for getting there. “We shall be trying to obtain official status as EU candidate country by the end of the year”, the Serb minister concluded. (ANSAmed).

(ANSAmed) — ROME, JANUARY 23 — Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini today reiterated Italy’s support for Serbiàs bid to join the European Union. Speaking after his talks with visiting Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic, Frattini said “I am absolutely convinced, as is the whole Italian government, that Serbia deserves to become a member of the EU, a union of peace, stability, security and economic prosperity”. Frattini added that he would ask the Czech Republic, which holds the EU rotating presidency for the first half of 2009, to take the steps necessary to accelerate the ratification of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) between the EU and Serbia, the first step toward Belgrade joining the EU. According to the Italian diplomatic chief, there is little reason to delay the SAA’s approval given Serbiàs cooperation with the international tribunal dealing with war crimes committed during the Balkan conflict. “We cannot leave Serbia behind because its destiny is in Europe,” Frattini said. Foreign Minister Jeremic agreed and added that “2009 must be a year of a shift in the right direction towards European integration, not only for Serbia but for all countries in the western Balkans”. Today’s meeting between the two ministers took place on the sidelines of celebrations marking the 130th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Rome and Belgrade. (ANSAmed).

(ANSAmed) — TRIPOLI, JANUARY 21 — Italians are the most numerous tourists in Libya. In the month of December there were 1,751 Italians who spent an average 13 nights in the North African country, visiting ancient archaeological sites, the Green Mountains and the Sahara, with its dunes and rock paintings. Coming in second were the English with 1,200 tourists, then the French, Spanish, Dutch and Belgians. The numbers are still small, but very significant for a land which has only been open to tourism for a few years, after a long period of isolation due to the embargo by the international community. The first development plan for tourism was in 1998 and in a decade, from a few hundred tourists per year, the number grew in 2008 to 42,000. Of the latter 8,000 arrived on 28 cruise ships which landed in the Tripoli port, where tourists visit the Medina and the nearby Roman cities Sabratha, Leptis Magna and Tobruk, along the border with Egypt, attracted by the memory of battles waged during the Second World War. “We are a new destination for selective tourism,” said a civil servant at the Ministry. The numbers confirmed that now Libya has only 2,200 hotel rooms with more than three stars. Not enough for mass tourism, and so tourism must move forward with small steps, even if worksites as part of future development plans for tourism line the Libyan coast, 90pct of which still lacks any sort of infrastructure. (ANSAmed).

(by Franco Chiavegatti) (ANSAmed) — TUNIS, SEPTEMBER 25 — For many young Tunisians Italy is El Dorado, however, for a growing number of Italian and in general European (mostly French) pensioners, Tunisia is El Dorado. Normal pensioners, of the kind of those whom the television investigations often show as rope-walkers on the household budget, to whom the North African country offers not only sun and political stability but also and most of all a definitely lower cost of living than the Italian one. One gets a first confirmation of this while scanning the offers for the low season (September-June) put forward by many hotels of renowned tourist locations such as Hammamet, Sousse, Mahdia, Djerba, for example. There are offers — full board — of twenty euro per day. Or, like a hotel in Hammamet proposes one pays 525 euro not only for the full board for three weeks but also the trip by airplane from and to Italy. Other opportunities come from the real estate market which rents villas and apartments at very good prices. For example Mahdia, a splendid location at the centre of the eastern coast, the first capital of the Fatimid kingdom: an apartment on the seafront, furnished, costs more or less (again in the low season) 250 euro a month. The prices are growing if one wants to reside in the ‘VIP’ areas around Tunis, such as La Marsa, Gammarth, Sidi Bou Said, Carthage. But, again on the bay of Tunis, in Ezzahra (ten kilometres from the capital, in the direction of Hammamet) a big two-storey villa on the beach, with a garden, garage and apartment for maid, has an annual rent of 6,600 euro. Returning to the more traditional winter tourism (hotels), practically all guests of the Tunisian hotels have unanimously praised the convenience in practical terms: saving from the electricity, gas, water, heating bills. It is also for this reason that a large group of Bergamo pensioners decided, for several years, to spend the three winter months in a hotel (with an indoor pool) in Mahdia. If one wants to stay longer, it is enough to ask for renewal of the permit of stay and one will have, apart from the normal ninety days, another three months of extension without problems. What about those who choose to go there with their cars? The first impact with the Tunisian reality is definitely positive: a litre of ‘super green’ petrol costs 1.25 dinars, that is 0.70 euro. Diesel oil costs even less. Therefore it is nothing to wonder about the queues at the stations in the port area of La Goulette before boarding for Italy or France. The only formality for entering with a car with a foreign number plate in Tunisia is the compulsory green insurance ticket issued in the country of residence. Then one can drive calmly for three months. If one wants to extend the stay, one needs to request the permit (maximum three months) at the customs, which will issue a temporary number plate, with payment of the circulation tax. At the end of the sixth month the car must go out of Tunisia. But for some time Tunisia has also been chosen as residence by many Italian pensioners. Apart from the cost of living (for example: a kilogram of bread costs some 0.14 euro, a kilogram of good fish — some 16 euro), the choice to live in Tunisia is also a result of a factor which concerns the tax regime. This is so because Tunisia and Italy have an agreement under which one person residing in Tunisia can choose ‘‘where’’ to pay the taxes. And the Tunisian tax regime sweeps a clean victory in this field too. And after all, Italy is 45 minutes away of flight from Tunis, one hour from Monastir. Practically within striking distance. (ANSAmed).

(ANSAmed) — ALGIERS, JANUARY 22 — French TV channel Canal + has launched a new bouquet of 25 satellite channels aimed at countries of the Maghreb especially at Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco. According to a report in the Algerian press, the announcement was made by the General Director of the group, Bertrand Meheut. The new service set up jointly by Canal + branch, Canal Overseas, and Arabsat, the leading supplier of satellite TV distribution services in the Arab world, will offer monthly subscriptions at reduced prices, starting from 20 euro a month. The three north African countries, stress Overseas Director, Jean-Noel Tronc, ‘represent a market with a strong potential with 13 million households, of whom more than 10 are already equipped for satellite reception’’. The use of tampered cards is widespread in Algeria, allowing access to pay-for-view satellite channels for a few euros, but from the end of 2008 on, following the alliance between Canal + and TPS, the signal has been blocked and the TV hackers aren’t able to download the necessary reception codes. (ANSAmed).

[Comment from JD: Dr. Walid Phares has a good analysis of the latest BL’s latest tape]

To Usama Bin Laden, the confrontation in Gaza is not a local national issue but it is part of what he coins as world Jihad against the Kuffars (infidels), or more precisely the “Crusader-Zionist enemy.” This stark ideological reminder came through a new audio message by the leader of al Qaeda at a time Israeli forces and Hamas’Jihadists were still fighting in the enclave. The Bin Laden address was titled “Call to Jihad to stop the aggression against Gaza” and was addressed to the “Umma” (Islamic Nation). The following is my analysis of this latest tape. […]

(by Luciana Borsatti) (ANSAmed) — ROME, JANUARY 22 — For the solution of the conflict in the Middle East, “Italy can play an important role thanks to its geographical proximity and its position internationally. But we expect that it acts as a ‘fair player’, and that it treats both sides with the same standards”. In an interview with ANSAmed, Princess Wijdan Fawaz Al Hashimi, a member of the royal family and the Jordanian Ambassador to Italy, starts with these points when discussing the most crucial aspects of the crisis a few days after the cease fire in Gaza. Italy has a “natural” role to play in the search for a peaceful solution, she underlines, a role “recognized by Jordan and the Arab world” and which has also increased with the country’s presidency of the G8. Additionally, she points out, Italy made an important contribution in humanitarian aid for Gaza. And if it is true that Minister Frattini believes that dialogue with Hamas is impossible and that Israel has the right of self defence “it is not up to me to say what the Italian government should decide”, she says. “I don’t want to get caught up in who was first, the chicken or the egg, if everything started with Hamas or Israel. I only say that we expect that it should be an impartial judge and play the role of ‘fair player’. Now the most important thing is to put an end to this conflict”. To do this, nevertheless, it is necessary that both the Palestinian sides reach an agreement. What is to be done? “If I had the answer, everything would be already resolved. But Egypt is trying very hard to get PNA and Hamas to meet and Jordan, which has good contacts with the PNA and was the first country to send humanitarian aid to Gaza, responds to this effort”. As to restarting the European mission at the Rafah crossing and international patrols in the waters off the Gaza Strip “if all parties accept, Egypt included”, observes the ambassador, “it could be a solution, but only temporary. The only way out is that of a national and independent state for the Palestinian people using the formula of the two states for two peoples. The Palestinians are tired of temporary solutions, they always wind leading to another crisis”. Europe, for its part “has been silent for too long”, the princess underlines again, appreciating the efforts by President Sarkozy to “bring it back to the international stage. We want to see it participate in the solution to the crisis”, she adds, “but it is not wise to let only one force act unilaterally, I’m referring to the USA, so far intellectually and culturally from the Middle East, especially after September 11”. But now that the new President Obama has been sworn in, what does Jordan expect? “That the new administration puts pressure on both sides, but especially on Israel, to proceed with the peace process, for a fair and lasting agreement in respect for the UN resolutions”. Kind Abdallah of Jordan was one of the first people Obama called. “A gesture we appreciate, Jordan is the Arab country that has always had the closest ties to Palestine”. But should the international community talk to Hamas? “Hamas cannot not be totally ignored. If Israel has declared war against Hamas, it has to be ready to look it in the face also in times of peace. There is no discussion of the legitimacy of the Palestinian government in Ramallah, but Hamas won free elections. At the beginning it was even ready to change its programme, to recognized the right of Israel, but they pushey it into a corner”. But for many people Hamas is just a terrorist organization. “But isn’t there also Jewish terrorism in the settlements, taking land from others shooting indiscriminately, and from states? What do we want to call a war with 1,300 dead and mostly civilians, against 13 victims on the other side. State terrorism or genocide?”. (ANSAmed).

(ANSAmed) — BEIRUT, JANUARY 23 — Lebanon’s cinema-going public will not be able to view the nightmares and flashbacks of war created by Israeli director Ari Folman, creator of the newly Oscar-nominated animated film ‘Waltz with Bashir’. The cartoon film gives a highly critical account of Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982 and the ensuing events. But Lebanon’s Minister of Information, Tareq Mitri, formerly the country’s Culture minister, has come down against the decision to ban the film and makes no bones about labelling the decision to do so “absurd”. Lebanon’s censorship prohibits that a film from Israel, a non-recognised nation with whom a state of war has existed since 1948, should be shown publicly or privately or that copies of its DVD go on sale. Lebanon has also for decades joined in with the inter-Arab campaign of boycotting any goods originating in Israel. The censor’s axe has over the years despatched such films as ‘Schindler’s List’, ‘The Pianist’ and ‘Life is Beautiful’. “When I was Culture minister (2005-2008) I tried in vain to get rid of the censorship law” said Mitri, adding: “It’s an absurd law, which fails to take into account, among other things, the fact that pirate films are easily downloaded off the Web”. A hit with the public in Israel, in North America and in Europe, and already the recipient of awards in many international festivals, ‘Waltz with Bashir’ has been nominated for the Oscar as best foreign film. Far from eulogising Israel’s foreign policy, Ari Folman’s animated film points an accusatory finger at Israel’s military command for decisions it made during the invasion of Lebanon in June 1982, a country then torn by civil war (1975-90) with the pro-Palestinian front fighting an Israeli-backed Christian one. Folman, who was a soldier during the invasion of Lebanon, portrays Israeli military command as an accomplice in the massacre of thousands of Palestinians in Beirut’s Sabra and Shatila refugee camps, committed in September of that year by Christian militia out to revenge the killing of Bashir Gemayel, their leader and President-elect. Gamayel, also Israeli-backed, was killed in an attack just before he could take power. “The Sabra and Shatila massacre constitutes another obstacle to the film’s screening in Lebanon, a country that is still fighting shy of its own memory”, Monika Borgman, director of the project ‘Umam — for the memory of the civil war’ — told ANSA. (ANSAmed).

(ANSAmed) — BEIRUT, JANUARY 23 — A patrol from the Italian contingent of Unifil, the UN force in Southern Lebanon, was surrounded by a group of people who “prevented them for carrying out their activities”. The website of the newspaper ‘an Nahar’ in Beirut announced the news, reporting that the episode took place yesterday and that the Italian soldiers were photographing a bridge, near to the village of Bint Jbeil. “Suddenly they were surrounded by various people who lived nearby lead by local Hezbollah representatives”. The Italian soldiers were asked to handover their photos, until a patrol from the Lebanese army arrived and “resolved the dispute”, the source goes on, adding that there were no “violent actions, except some insults”. The spokesperson for the Italian contingent, second lieutenant Roberto Vitale, when contacted by ANSA, said that “soldiers from the Third Genio Regiment were carrying out reconnaissance work to find out about the road conditions in the area”, and that they were prevented from doing so “by some inhabitants of the area who showed their annoyance at the survey taking place, and one of them tried, without success, to take a folder of notes which the Genio specialists were adding data to”. The event was resolved when “as well as members of the Lebanese army, the mayor of the village stepped in, and the Unifil soldiers clarified the situation before carrying on normally with their work”. (ANSAmed).

(by Ziad Talhouk) (ANSAmed) — BEIRUT, OCTOBER 8 — With ‘Tabboule’, ‘Falafel’ and ‘Hummus’ weaponry, Lebanon, in a state of war with Israel, is planning to wage a culinary offensive against the Jewish state to protect what the Cedars’ country considers “national” dishes. The Association of Lebanese Industrialists (ALI) has said it is preparing the ground for a case to register a variety of popular dishes as Lebanese in origin, preventing Israel from marketing ‘hummus’ and other dishes as Israeli and under the same name. “We are working on registering all the foods and ingredients which will be submitted to the Lebanese government so it can appeal to the international courts against Israel,” Fadi Abboud, President of ALI, told al-Arabiya web site. “We are preventing Israel from stealing our main food landmarks and selling them around the world,” said Abboud, adding that Israel’s marketing Lebanese foods cost the Lebanese economy “tens of millions of dollars.” “It is not enough Israelis are stealing our land, they are also stealing our civilization and our cuisine,” said Abboud. ALI is heartened by a precedent case involving Italian ‘parmigiano’ cheese. A European court ruled that the product was uniquely linked to Italy and other countries producing it were banned from using the word “parmigiano” to describe their product. However, establishing the historical pedigree of the Lebanese dishes could leave a bitter taste in the mouths of Lebanese lawyers. Hummus, a dish of smashed chickpeas, sesame paste, mashed garlic, olive oil, lemon juice, and salt, is said to have been first prepared at the time of Saladin in the 12th century and Palestinians claim as their own. ‘Falafel’ is thought to be an Egyptian invention. “Hummus might be debatable,” Abboud acknowledged. “In any case we will be happy if the Palestinians win,” he added. Perhaps Lebanon’s best chance of receiving Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) status for its food lies with ‘Tabboule’, a salad based on chopped parsley and tomatoes. Lebanon prouds itself with its traditional cuisine, especially the ‘meza’ which consists of a large variety of dishes served in “one shot” along with the local alcoholic beverage, ‘Arak’, just before grilled meat is “hit”. But the truth is that some items of this ‘meza’ are common in the Mediterranean region which, along with parts of south-eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa was under the Ottoman empire (1299-1923). (ANSAmed).

Prosecution submits more than 4,000 pages of evidence against people accused of carrying out the bomb attacks that killed six and wounded 70 in September last year. The group was also preparing other attacks in order to subvert the legal order. A former BJP member of parliament attended some of the group’s secret meetings.

Mumbai (AsiaNews/Agencies) — The people behind the Malegaon blasts were organising an underground movement to promote Hindu nationalism and set up a Hindu state (Hindu Rashtra).

On Tuesday the Maharashtra Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) presented evidence to the Maharashtra Control of Organised Crime Act (MCOCA) Court against 14 defendants involved in the attack that killed six people, wounding 70, in Malegaon, a city in Maharashtra, on 29 September 2008.

The 4,300-page charge sheet submitted by the Maharashtra ATS not only contained the counts of crimes against the accused, but also transcripts of conversations in which the latter discussed secret plans to “sow the seed for revolution.”

The document reported that the group held meetings in various cities of the country, including one in September 2007, attended by B.L. Sharma, a former member of parliament for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and a leader of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP).

Based on transcripts from a video found on the laptop of self-styled religious leader Dayanand Pandey, police argued that the defendants were planning to set up a vast subversive group.

The transcripts also indicate that Sharma discussed when and how to recruit new members. The former BJP lawmaker is also said to have encourage the group in their plan, urging them to maintain secrecy, suggesting they might achieve their goals in a five-year period.

In the tape the group’s leader, Army Lieutenant Colonel P S Purohit, said that the “revolution should not be only in Maharashtra or Delhi. Until the web is fully spread across the country, we cannot implement this revolution.”

In the short run the group planned to carry out attacks to frighten the population and force non-Hindus to convert to Hinduism.

The next hearing in the case is scheduled for 12 February when the judicial custody of 11 of the 14 accused ends.

The Malegaon trial has become a major embarrassment for Hindu nationalist parties who had initially claimed that the two blasts in September were the work of Islamist or Maoist groups.

However, right from the start the trail of clues led to Hindu nationalist leaders.

When a 38-year-old man, who had become a Sadhu or Hindu ascetic in 2007, was arrested early in the investigation along with a Hindu woman, it became clear that Hindu nationalists were behind the attacks.

Uzbekistan wants Tajikistan to pay higher prices for its gas and higher transit fees for Turkmen electricity crossing its territory. Tajikistan is examining the possibility of reducing water flow downstream into Uzbekistan.

Dushanbe (AsiaNews/Agencies) — Tajikistan is threatening to limit the downstream supply of water to Uzbekistan after the two countries failed to agree on a transit rate for Turkmen electricity crossing Uzbek territory into Tajikistan.

By way of explanation Tajik Foreign Minister Khamrokhon Zarifi said yesterday that his country’s reservoirs needed to operate at full capacity to compensate for the lack of Turkmen electricity in the national power grid. And this “forced use of large volumes of water in the reservoirs can lead to shortages of water in lower countries” like Uzbekistan but also Turkmenistan, the minister added.

Waters from the Nurek and Qairoqum reservoirs are especially important to farmers in downstream countries.

Uzbekistan is demanding 10 per cent of the $0.03 per kilowatt paid by Tajikistan to Turkmenistan.

This year the Uzbeks are also charging Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan US$ 240 per 1000 m3, up from 145 dollars last year.

Because of this the Tajiks have accused the Uzbeks of not living up to their obligations under the bilateral agreements on energy and water signed at a Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Bishkek last year.

For the Uzbek there requests are part of their policy of asking all export partners, whether neighbours or not, to pay world prices.

In protracted negotiations, the Tajiks and Kyrgyz failed to secure a more affordable price. The Tajiks thus opted to buy from more distant Turkmenistan which is charging less.

Uzbekistan produces 60 billion m3 of natural gas a year, exporting 17 billion to Russia via the Central Asia-Centre pipeline and a total of four billion to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and also to parts of Kazakhstan.

Unlike its neighbours Tajikistan is energy-poor but controls more than 50 percent of Central Asia’s water reserves.

The Syr Darya and Amu Darya Rivers flow through Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan before reaching Uzbekistan and both countries operate important hydro-electric plants.

Experts note that instead of bickering and boycotting each other all the states should focus on reaching an agreement on energy and water sharing.

A program has been announced to make the army more modern and technologically advanced by the middle of the century. The increase in spending is justified by the presence of foreign threats and hostile, secessionist forces, like the Tibetans massacred in March. Warnings to the United States and to Taiwan.

Beijing (AsiaNews/Agencies) — China will increase its military spending in order to preserve foreign and domestic security, which it maintains is threatened by separatist groups in Tibet, Taiwan, and Xinjiang, and by continued weapons sales by the U.S. to Taiwan. In a “white paper” of almost 100 pages, prepared by the government and released yesterday, Beijing admits that “China’s security situation has improved steadily,” but adds that “China is encountering many new circumstances and new issues in maintaining social stability.”

In the white paper, China emphasizes its intention to use military power solely in a defensive manner, and in order to maintain its “territorial integrity.” But it adds that it intends to employ significant resources in order to make its army increasingly modern and technologically advanced, according to a plan of development that is not expect to be completed before the “middle of the century.” This is in part in order to confront “the superiority of developed countries economically, scientifically and technologically, as well as militarily.”

This reference is primarily to the United States, which “has increased its strategic attention to and input in the Asia-Pacific region, further consolidating its military alliances, adjusting its military deployments and enhancing its military capabilities.” Sales of weapons to Taiwan are said to be “causing serious harm to Sino-US relations as well as peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.” In October, the Pentagon announced sales of 6.5 million dollars worth of weapons to Taiwan — including 32 Apache assault helicopters, 330 Patriot interceptor missiles, and 32 Harpoon missiles, which can be launched from submarines — in spite of China’s protests. In presenting the document, Colonel Hu Changming, spokesman of the national defense ministry, said that “China-US military-to-military relations are faced with difficulties,” and expressed his hope for the creation of more solid military relations with the new president, Barack Obama.

China considers Taiwan part of its territory, and has always said it is prepared to use force if the island formally declares independence. Hu clarified, however, that relations between Beijing and Taipei have “entered a period of peaceful development” with the election of Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou, who is in favor of better relations. Hu also praised the contacts and exchange of information between the armies of the two countries, and the creation of a mechanism of common understanding in order to guarantee security in the area. However, he did not answer the question of whether there has been any reduction in the number of missiles aimed at the island.

Almost by way of response, Lisa Chin, a spokesperson for the Taiwanese defense ministry, said that thanks to better relations with Beijing, a significant reduction in army forces is being considered. The intention is to bring the number of soldiers from 275,000 to 180,000 in 4 years.

Experts observe that Beijing, after the bloody repression of the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, has increased its military spending every year. China is afraid of mass protests, like the one that took place last March in Tibet, forcibly suppressed by the army. There is explicit reference to the “disruption and sabotage by separatist and hostile forces from the inside,” like the Tibetans or the Uyghurs of Xinjiang.

For 2008, declared military spending was 417.769 billion yuan (about 41 billion euros), 17.6% more than in 2007. But experts estimate that actual spending was much higher.

Today millions will leave the cities to return to their rural family homes for the new year celebrations. But this year Beijing hopes the newly jobless revellers will stay there — to prevent a fresh wave of unrest in the cities

They surged into the grimy streets around the factory: first scores, then hundreds, then more than a thousand, as word spread and tension loaded the stale, grey air. The boldest overturned a police van and smashed up motorcycles, then tore through the building destroying computers and equipment. The mood was exhilarated, angry and frightened.

“It happened so quickly … There were maybe 500 involved and another 1,000 watching them. People were yelling: ‘It’s good to smash’,” said a witness.

But the riot late last year at the Kai Da factory in Dongguan, amid the grim industrial sprawl of the Pearl River Delta, was not an isolated incident. It was one of tens of thousands of protests, many erupting from the same mixture of economic grievances, resentment of police and swirling rumour.

The numbers have been climbing steadily for years. But as the Chinese New Year dawns and the global economic crisis deepens, the government fears that mass unrest could challenge its control of the country, threatening a communist regime that has embraced capitalism with spectacular results.

[Comment from JD: Check out the chart (at the above URL) illustrating the pegging of the yuan to the dollar.]

The conventional wisdom on China is dead wrong. Specifically, there is a widespread belief, as expressed by Goldman Sachs, that “China will keep the yuan trading within a narrow range in 2009 due concerns about exporters.” Worse still, others are even predicting that China will devalue its currency! The sheer wishful thinking is astounding! The idea that “China will keep the dollar peg to help its exporters” ranks all the way up there with “Housing prices always go up” and “You can spend your way to prosperity”.

THERE ARE NO FREE LUNCHES

If you have learned nothing else in the last year and a half, you should have learned that if something sounds too good to be true, that is because it IS too good to be true. The media overwhelmingly presents China’s dollar peg as a win-win situation: Americans get cheap imports and low interest rates while China gets a strong manufacturing sector. While commentators do sometimes debates whether China will keep lending us money forever, they never talk about the REAL problem with the dollar peg.

Below is a chart which shows how China’s dollar peg works. See if you can spot the downside that the media never seems to mention.

The US’s trade deficit requires China to print money!

The little discussed downside of the dollar peg is all the money China has to print to maintain it. China’s Central Bank puts the extra dollars it receives from its trade surplus into its growing foreign reserves and then prints yuan to pay Chinese exporters. This results in an increase in China’s base money supply by an amount equal to the increase in its foreign exchange reserves. While China’s ability to keep accumulating US reserves is endless, its ability to keep its money supply under control is not.

The true threat to the dollar peg

If there is one development which could force China to drop its dollar peg, it is out of control inflation. Rampant inflation would result in millions of citizens starving and would create widespread social unrest. Keeping food prices low is a matter of political survival for Chinese authorities. So, facing the choice between losing their grip on power and losing the dollar peg, they will not hesitate for a second to sacrifice the dollar to save their own skin.

[Comment from JD: The author speaks from experience; he worked for the INS for 30 years and retired in 2002.]

In fact, the degrading situation in Mexico may well impact the situation to be found in the Middle East. Narcotics flooding across our nation’s border originate in many countries and some of those drugs may well have been sent to Mexico to have them moved into the United States by drug organizations headquartered in Afghanistan and other such countries.

As I have noted on many occasions, it was absolutely incomprehensible that while our country detailed United States Border Patrol agents to Iraq to secure that nation against the influx of insurgents and terrorists that our own border was left as porous as the proverbial sieve!

A news report appeared this past Thursday in the Washington Times and is of great importance.

I have often discussed the deteriorating situation in Mexico but I believe that it is important to review some of the points I have previously made, especially as Mexico appears poised on the precipice of disintegration and our nation’s economy continues to demonstrate a worrying crisis in solvency.

Two weeks ago the U.S. Joint Forces Command published its “Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)” report, which projects global threats and potential next wars. The report stated that Mexico and Pakistan are two countries that “bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse,”

“The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”

While Mexico’s collapse may not be imminent, the report underlines the seriousness of the current drug wars in Mexico, which represent an urgent problem to the US.

This is not a new problem: Last May Stratfor had posed the question, Mexico: On the Road to a Failed State? in one of its Geopolitical Intelligence Reports that expressed the similar concerns to that of the JOE report. Stratfor also points out to state failures in Mexico’s past.

The most reliable and concise background study on the seriousness of the problem is the 2007 CRS Report for Congress on Mexico’s Drug Cartels, which provides an overview of Mexican drug cartels and their operations, their ties to gangs like the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13), and Mexican cartel presence and their drug production in the US. The cartels — Juárez, Sinaloa, Gulf, Nuevo Laredo, Guerrero. Valencia and Michoacán — form alliances and work together (like Sinaloa-Juárez-Valencia Federation), but remain independent organizations, which operate throughout Mexico and branch into the United States.

Police corruption and the emergence of multiple, well-armed groups further complicate the problem.

Yesterday’s AP article on the arrest of a dozen high-ranking officials with alleged ties to the Sinaloa Cartel (currently the most powerful of the cartels) illustrates the corruption problem…

[…]

A year into the Calderon goverment’s crackdown on the cartels, the Mexican government continues to increase its efforts against the cartels — for instance, sending 2,000 troops to Juárez this month — but the extent of the violence ravaging the country is immense.

El Universal has a webpage of drug war related articles; there have been 312 deaths in 2009 so far. This article from El Universal lists 34 killings in one day, all related to the drug wars. El Universal and the BBC report the arrest on Friday of Santiago Meza López, a.k.a. “Teo’s wellman”, No. 20 in the FBI’s most-wanted list, who allegedly decomposed in acid 300 bodies of people murdered by the Sinaloa Cartel and Teodoro Eduardo García Simental, alias “El Teo”.

[…]

The scenario where a breakdown of institutions where the state becomes an instrument of criminals in Mexico would bring millions of war refugees into the US, and neighboring Central American countries would also collapse. Mexico, the world’s 14th largest economy, has over 100 million people.

The JOE 08 report, along with the 2007 CRS Report for Congress on Mexico’s Drug Cartels, should be the starting point for the discussion of what we need to do here in the US: Strenghthening the Merida Initiative (whose purpose is to train and professionalize Mexico’s military and civil forces), paying special attention to immigration and drug enforcement in the border states, increasing the National Guard, making other defense contingency plans in the US, and educating the public on the level of threat are a few suggestions.

Mexico’s descent into chaos, while not imminent, is a real possibility.

[Links to additional material in the post; related posts here, with links to two podcasts.]

A man arrested by Mexican police says he disposed of 300 bodies for a drugs gang over the past decade by dissolving them in chemicals.

Santiago Meza, called the “stew maker”, said he was paid $600 (£440) a week to dissolve the bodies of murdered rival gang members in caustic soda.

He was presented to the media by the Mexican army after being arrested on Thursday near the city of Tijuana.

Over 700 people died in the US border city last year in an ongoing drugs war.

The Mexican army says it believes Mr Meza’s claims are true.

“They brought me the bodies and I just got rid of them,” Mr Meza told journalists at a construction site where he disposed of the bodies over a 10-year period. “I didn’t feel anything.”

The 300 corpses were said to belong to murdered rivals of Mexican drug kingpin Teodoro Garcia Simental, who is battling for control over drug trafficking routes through Tijuana, after defecting from the powerful Arellano Felix cartel.

(ANSAmed) — MADRID, JANUARY 21- According to estimates reported today by the National Statistical Institute, in January 2008 the resident population of Spain was 45.2 million people, 10pct of which were immigrants, but by 2010 this number will be cut in half. Immigration, which has been a key factor in Spanish economic growth over the past years, will decrease in the near future due to the economic crisis, which will dissuade new immigrants from arriving, causing many of them to return to their home countries. According to the institutés estimates, in 2018 the Spanish population will reach 49 million despite an expected demographic slowdown. The number of immigrants, which in 2007 was 958,000, will decline to less than half that number in three years, reaching 442,000 by 2010. The institute calculates that less than 5 million foreigners will arrive in Spain in the next decade. Fewer immigrants will arrive, but also fewer births will take place. Between 2000-2008 the Spanish population grew at an average of 720,000, but in the next 10 years an average growth of 380,000 is expected. Births, after a maximum of 500,000 expected for 2009, will start to decrease slowly initiating a new demographic trend. According to the institute, immigration will continue to have a positive impact on most of the autonomous regions in the next 10 years, including Madrid, Valencia, Andalusia, and Catalonia. It is the first time that short term population projections have been reported by the institute. These estimates will be annual in order to follow the demographic evolution. According to the identikit outline, the Spanish population will not only be less multiethnic, but also older. There will be an increase in the over 64 population, increasing by 19.2pct over the next 10 years. While minors under 15 years old will increase by over 13pct, and the 16-64 population will increase by 4.7pct. As for the average number of children per woman, the growth trend will maintain its pace, going from 1.39 in 2007 to 1.46 in 2017, while the average age of women at the time of their first birth will stabilise at 31 years old thanks to the age of woman immigrants. In the seven autonomous regions, the number of deaths will be greater than the number of births, particularly in Galicia, the Asturias, the Basque Countries, Castile and Leon, Estremadura, Aragon, and Cantabria. In the first three, decrease in population will not be compensated by internal or foreign migrations. (ANSAmed)

DENVER (AP) — Disgraced evangelical leader Ted Haggard’s former church disclosed Friday that the gay sex scandal that caused his downfall extends to a young male church volunteer who reported having a sexual relationship with Haggard — a revelation that comes as Haggard tries to repair his public image.

[…]

In an AP interview this month before an appearance in front of TV critics in California, Haggard described his sexuality as complex and something that can’t be put into “stereotypical boxes.”

‘Christians are not the oppressors, nor the creators of division in classes’

An upcoming “No Name-Calling” campaign for public schools sponsored by a homosexual activist organization is prompting concerns from a Christian group, which contends the effort promotes hate, not tolerance.

“Is respect for Christians part of these ‘no-naming-calling’ lessons?” asked Linda Harvey, head of Mission America. “Or does this effort in reality create more division by labeling and stereotyping objections to homosexuality?”

She said bullying students who are acting out homosexually cannot be excused.

[…]

She said the sponsorship of GLSEN should alarm parents.

“This is the extremist group that helps kids organize homosexual clubs, and has stated a goal to get homosexual student clubs in all schools, kindergarten through 12th grade. Grade schoolers declaring their homosexuality? This is child sexual abuse!” she said.

The resolution, which passed by an uncounted show of hands by the 700 or so Episcopalians meeting at the Reston Hyatt, first recommended the diocese respond “to the pastoral needs of our faithful gay and lesbian members.”