It is going to be exciting! The ADIREC continues a renowned series of high-level political conferences that started back in 2004 in Germany. While these conferences have been based on voluntary cooperation, pledges and networking, each conference has helped stimulate action and build momentum for the incredible clean energy race that’s unfolded since 2004. This is what we expect this year too, at a time when strong political and business leadership are needed.

Renewable energy markets are now at the most critical phase. This is especially true for solar photovoltaic (pv) and onshore wind power, which have become mainstream technologies. Prices have fallen dramatically over the last two to three years, and the competition between the solar and wind equipment manufacturers is fierce. Profit margins are minimal and many smaller companies will not survive this price battle.

The wind and solar market in 2012 was half the size of manufacturing capacity because of drastic expansion of capacity in China. But this also had a positive effect. In many countries, the price for solar and wind is now cost competitive with coal, and in some places even competes with gas power plants.

Since 2010, more than half the new power plants have been renewable energy. Increasingly, the fossil fuel industry is feeling the heat of competition with renewables, putting them in the line of fire. While the first half of the “Fossil against Renewable” match went to wind and solar, the second half starts now. The conflict will be about the required infrastructure and new storage technologies - the battle of the grids. “Smart grid”, “Smart meter” or “Smart Cities” are the buzzwords at the centre of many energy debates.

Despite all these positive messages for the renewable industry, the fight is not over at all. In 2013, many companies will merge, get taken over or drop out of the market.

The well-known energy players – AREVA, Siemens, GE or ABB – are already starting to dominate the wind and solar industry. But will they prioritise renewables ahead of their on-going interest on conventionals?

And with the “shale gas revolution” in the US almost turning the entire global power-plant market on its head, “cheap”, or more accurately “cross-subsidised” gas, drives not only coal, nuclear but also renewables out of the market.

Renewable energy still needs political support. Not so much in the form of subsidies any more, but in fundamentally different market regulations: increased grid access, modernised power-market design and to some extent a different infrastructure are needed to achieve an energy market that is 100% renewable energy. High-level renewable energy conferences, like the ones taking place this week, can help build momentum for good policies and leadership.

Financial institutions have learned a lot about wind and solar. New global investment in renewables rose 17% to a record $257 billion in 2011 – six times higher than in 2004 and almost twice the total investment in 2007, the last year before the acute phase of the recent global financial crisis. Figures for 2012 are not available yet, but are expected to be on 2011 level. This is not good news.

Fortunately, the first announcements for the crucial year of 2013 are promising. China will step up its solar pv market to 10,000 MW in 2013 – five times higher than two years ago. Announcements in India might at least double the pv market in 2013.

But what do we need to see to really save our climate and to provide clean, safe and affordable energy for all?

To achieve an Energy [R]evolution (a clean-energy pathway Greenpeace has outlined together with our partners EREC and GWEC) we need to maintain the past decade’s growth of the renewable market for another decade. This is completely possible, but only with long-term political support for renewable energy and energy efficiency.

Let’s hope that the coming week in Abu Dhabi will provide an inspiring start for the renewable energy policy debates and decisions this year.

Sven Teske is an expert on renewable energy with Greenpeace International

I Loved this article, ...thanks so much, ...very enlightening and promising perspective, "...maintaining the past decade's growth of the rene...

I Loved this article, ...thanks so much, ...very enlightening and promising perspective, "...maintaining the past decade's growth of the renewable market for another decade. This is completely possible..." May your rhyme and reason fill their hearts in Abu Dhabi this week

I've removed your comment because it makes personal statements about the physical appearance of Kumi's daughter, which I ...

Hey GS,

I've removed your comment because it makes personal statements about the physical appearance of Kumi's daughter, which I feel crosses the line. Aside form that, it was entirely off topic.

If you've got thoughts about the energy revolution or renewable energy in 2013, please feel free to share them. I think we're all basically in agreement, but happy to hear your take on what Sven is saying.

since my post was removed I try again. Think I said something like: yes! start to fight with Renewable ...

COMMENT NO. 6

@Teske

since my post was removed I try again. Think I said something like: yes! start to fight with Renewable Energy facing powerful enemies at the moment! It would be overdue...

"...Since 2010, more than half the new power plants have been renewable energy. Increasingly, the fossil fuel industry is feeling the heat of competition with renewables, putting them in the line of fire. While the first half of the “Fossil against Renewable” match went to wind and solar, the second half starts now..."

Sun Wu

PS: and I believe having asked what you think of Joel Stewart and of Greenpeace ships visiting Costa Rica three times after Joel Stewart had bought 200 acres of land to open a luxury lodge in 1991?

I'm still waiting to hear if you think about Sven's blog. And I find it pretty rude when you post comment after comment ...

Hey GS,

I'm still waiting to hear if you think about Sven's blog. And I find it pretty rude when you post comment after comment after comment.

To address what you're saying... Sure, people like me fly home sometimes, and sometimes fly for work as well. No matter how dedicated you are, it's tough to say you shouldn't ever be allowed to see friends and families. And in an international organization, we can't always choose where to live. We go where the work is.

If I visit London, I take the train (or boat). If I'm visiting the US, flying is the only real option.

But again, none of that is really about Sven's blog, or the future of renewable energy.

Aren't you at least a little excited to hear that solar and wind are cost competitive with coal in some countries? And that 2013 could be a make or break year for the industry? To me, that's something important.

Thanks very much Andrew, ...as you and all the good people there, I couldn't be disgusted more about the comments directed toward Kumi's daughter. I also couldn't agree with you more about the importance of seeing your family, and to use reasonable transportation available to do so. I wish you safe journeys Andrew, ...a continuing and Loving relationship with friends and family this year and always.
Again, I Loved your article Sven, thank you very much for your positive message of promise.

'...Or could it be they simply can't resign of feeling important therefor follow HR-politics ruining GREENPEACE?

Just have a look at all the people like EoinD, James Turner...of course for them Greenpeace is a war they are willing to risk their income for, and not a career at one of the TOP NGOs!

Just have a look at GREENPEACE today and its last years in ACTION...and at the people blogging on this website!...'

Get used to it, you guys have something like 17500kwh/annually for an responsible life. It is like a saving-account...if the money is gone you are poor, or regional :)

In sociology high-culture societies failed in the past because people got spoiled. They got used to thing not able to change anymore when it was necessary.

There is two options:

1.) get a new job (I strongly recommend this option!!!)
2.) get new friends (the dutch...I know. But feel free to take a LOW-SPEED train to come visit us Germans)

About Svens Blog: I thought having said I liked it! I am not excited about wind & solar having gotten competetive... I know this for a while.

My excitement is based on the fact big energy seems to feel heavily threatened...this makes them dangerous, like a wounded animal. By the way, their predicted strategy was predicted to be raising the price for Energiewende and creating (fear of ) blackouts.

What is rude? Deleting comments of analytical nature.

Regards

Sun Wu, godfather of RW III

PS: Andrew, can you please change my name to Sun Wu again? Green Savior was a result of me wanting to post the 'White Industrial Savior Complex' by Teju Cole in the name of Green Savior...thought it to be kind of funny without being aware of the lasting effects...

By the way, one of you guys deleted the White Industrial Savior Complex...I got the impression you guys felt threatened by it!

To everyone reading this note: I recommend these Tweeds to understand Greenpeace ;)