Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/10

Trends and Indexes

Thursday, January 10

Good Luck on day # 10 of 2019!

NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

13) USC’s AD Lynn Swann is taking grief in Los Angeles over the Kliff Kingsbury fiasco, where the Trojans hired Kingsbury as their new OC, then 34 days later, watched Kingsbury run off to be head coach of the NFL’s Arizona Cardinals.

Had Swann waited until the eight NFL head coach openings were filled, he would’ve been spared the embarrassment of hiring a guy who didn’t want to be there. Now he has to hire another OC, and it is less than a month until Signing Day for recruits. Not good.

12) Kliff Kingsbury said couple of months ago that he would take Kyler Murray with the first pick in the draft, if he could. Well……..now he can, since Arizona has the first pick in the draft.

Would another team trade for Josh Rosen and open the door for that to happen?

11) Denver Broncos hired Bears’ DC Vic Fangio as their new head coach, beating out Steelers’ OL coach Mike Munchak- those two coaches were born about five miles apart near Scranton, PA.

10) Jets signed Adam Gase as coach; Gase went 23-26 as the Dolphins’ coach, losing his only playoff game 30-12 at Pittsburgh in 2016. Gase went 5-1 against the Jets with Miami.

Everyone except Denver is anxious to sign offense-geared head coaches.

9) Tennessee Vols hired OC Jim Chaney away from Georgia; he will be Tennessee’s 4th OC the last four years- he was make $950,000 a year in Athens, so safe to say he got a hefty raise to move to Knoxville.

8) Cleveland Browns hired OC Freddie Kitchens as its new HC, based on his development of rookie QB Baker Mayfield. Most assistant coaches were fired, including DC Gregg Williams, who was interim coach when the Browns won five of their last seven games.

This is similar reasoning that Tampa Bay used a few years ago when Buccaneers fired HC Lovie Smith and promoted Dirk Koetter to HC, figuring that Koetter was instrumental in the development of QB Jameis Winston— how did that turn out for them?

Kitchens is the 6th former Alabama football player to become an NFL head coach, last one being Mike Riley with the Chargers.

7) Usually, sign-up for the Westgate SuperBook’s NFL handicapping contest starts in July; this year, they’re hoping to start signing people up on March 1. Over 3,000 people were in this year’s contest; the champ won over $1.4M.

6) New Mexico Lobos basketball player Corey Manigault is the nephew of playground legend Earl (the Goat) Manigault, a famous New York City ballplayer from a long time ago whose career was derailed by off-court issues.

5) Trivia you get from the movies: When Jesse Owens won the gold medal in the 200-meter sprint in the 1936 Olympics. he won by :00.4 seconds over a guy named Mack Robinson.

You may have heard of Mack’s younger brother, Jackie Robinson. Pretty good baseball player.

4) Saben Lee, who plays basketball for Vanderbilt, is the son of former Florida State/NFL running back Amp Lee, who played nine years in the NFL for four teams.

Amp Lee caught the last TD pass Joe Montana threw for the 49ers; later on, he won a Super Bowl ring with the 1999 Rams.

3) Milwaukee Brewers signed C Yasmani Grandal to a one-year contract for $18.25M.

2) Tuesday, four armed guards entered the New Orleans Saints’ locker room, with Coach Sean Payton wheeling the Lombardi Trophy in, on top of $225k in cash.

Payton asked the team: “Y’all want this??? Win 3 F’n games.”

The locker room erupted. $225k is each player’s Super Bowl bonus.

1) Last time Cowboys/Rams met in the playoffs was in January of ’86, when the Dieter Brock-led Rams shut Dallas out 20-0 in Anaheim. That was 20 days before current Rams’ coach Sean McVay was born.

Dallas’ OC Scott Linehan used to be the Rams’ head coach.
Rams’ DC Wade Phillips used to be the Cowboys’ head coach.

Celtics won/covered their last four games; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four road games. 12 of their last 14 games went over. Heat lost three of their last five games; they’re 7-3 vs spread in last ten home games. Six of their last eight games went over. Miami won its last two games with Boston, after losing previous eight meetings; Celtics covered four of last five visits to South Beach (over 3-2). Boston is 0-5 vs spread if it played the night before.

Clippers won their last three games; they covered their last three road games. Seven of their last ten games went over. Nuggets won six of their last seven games; they’re 8-2 vs spread in last ten home games. Eight of their last ten games went over the total. Clippers are 3-5 in last eight games with Denver; they’re 1-2 vs spread in last three visits here. Three of last four series games went over.

Oklahoma City split its last ten games; they’re 5-2 vs spread in last seven road games. Under is 8-1-1 in their last ten games. San Antonio won 13 of its last 17 games; they’re 2-4-1 vs spread if they played night before (over 6-1). Over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Home side won seven of last eight Thunder-Spurs games; Oklahoma City is 0-3 vs spread in last three visits to the Alamo. Six of last seven series games stayed under.

Pistons lost eight of their last ten games; they’re 1-4-1 vs spread in last six road games. 14 of their last 21 games stayed under. Sacramento lost five of its last six games; they’re 7-4 vs spread in last 11 home games. Over is 6-3-1 in their last ten home games. Detroit won seven of last ten games with the Kings; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Sacramento. Seven of last ten series games stayed under.

Boston Celtics
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 9 games
Boston is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games on the road
Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Boston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Miami
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Boston's last 25 games when playing on the road against MiamiMiami Heat
Miami is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Miami is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Boston
Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Miami's last 25 games when playing at home against Boston

Los Angeles Clippers
LA Clippers is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
LA Clippers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 6 games
LA Clippers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 6 games when playing Denver
LA Clippers is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Denver
LA Clippers is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against DenverDenver Nuggets
Denver is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games
Denver is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Denver is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

Oklahoma City Thunder
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games
Oklahoma City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games when playing San Antonio
Oklahoma City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Oklahoma City is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing on the road against San AntonioSan Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
San Antonio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games
San Antonio is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Antonio's last 10 games at home
San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 7 games when playing Oklahoma City
San Antonio is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
San Antonio is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

Detroit Pistons
Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Detroit's last 21 games
Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games on the road
Detroit is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Sacramento
Detroit is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games when playing Sacramento
Detroit is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Detroit is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against SacramentoSacramento Kings
Sacramento is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Sacramento is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Sacramento's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Sacramento's last 14 games at home
Sacramento is 4-8-2 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Sacramento's last 10 games when playing Detroit
Sacramento is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Detroit
Sacramento is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

BOSTON (25 - 15) at MIAMI (19 - 20) - 1/10/2019, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 67-44 ATS (+18.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 82-55 ATS (+21.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 56-39 ATS (+13.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 174-136 ATS (+24.4 Units) against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
BOSTON is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-3 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 5-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

LA CLIPPERS (24 - 16) at DENVER (27 - 12) - 1/10/2019, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 5-4 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-4 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

OKLAHOMA CITY (25 - 15) at SAN ANTONIO (24 - 18) - 1/10/2019, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 42-58 ATS (-21.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in home games off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 147-113 ATS (+22.7 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 5-2 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 4-3 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

DETROIT (17 - 22) at SACRAMENTO (20 - 21) - 1/10/2019, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 2-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Wild night in the NBA on Wednesday as favorites posted an 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the spread record. While it appeared that the bettors riding the ‘chalk’ were smoking cigars at the end of the night, they certainly had to sweat for a full 48 minutes as plenty of big underdogs collapsed.

For those bettors playing the Hawks, Cavaliers or Magic – please accept our apologies. All three of those teams held commanding leads but the trio was outscored by 23, 20 and 30 points respectively in the second-half. Total players watched the ‘under’ go 6-4.

Four games on the slate tonight, which includes the nationally televised double-header on TNT. Before we break down the games, check out the latest Win Total Update. It provides an informed look at which teams have surpassed the expectations of the oddsmakers so far and also shows you have underachieved.

Boston (25-15 SU, 22-18 ATS) at Miami (19-20 SU, 21-18 ATS)

Possible letdown game for Boston, who just blasted Indiana 135-108 as a 7 ½-point home favorite on Tuesday. Including that win, the Celtics have now won and covered four straight games with all of the outcomes coming by double digits.

BookMaker sent out Boston as a 1 ½-point road favorite on Wednesday and the number has been pushed up to -2 as of Thursday morning. Keep in mind that the Celtics have struggled on zero days rest this season, going 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS. Defensively, they haven’t been great (107.5 PPG) in the back-to-back spots and that lack of effort has helped the ‘over’ go 4-2.

Miami has been very tough to figure out this season and despite owning a losing record, the club still sits in first place of the Southeast Division and that group might be lucky to get one playoff bid this April.

The Heat enter this matchup off back-to-back losses, an embarrassing 24-point blowout (106-82) at Atlanta on Sunday and a close call (103-99) at home to Denver on Tuesday. Including those setbacks, the club is 4-4 in its last eight but all four wins came against teams below .500. Versus winning teams, Miami has struggled to a 5-8 mark this season but a couple of them came at home recently against Houston and Milwaukee. Again, tough to figure out which Heat team shows up.

Boston was a great bet on the road last season (28-13) but is just 10-10 away from home in this campaign. Fortunately for the Celtics, the Heat haven’t played well at home this season (9-12 SU, 9-12 ATS). However, it’s managed to produce decent numbers (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) when catching points at American Airlines Arena.

This will be the first encounter between the pair this season. In the 2017-18 slate, the Heat won and covered two of their three meetings with the Celtics only win coming in Miami. Prior to that run, the Heat has lost seven straight games to Boston, three of those setbacks coming at home.

The total opened 209 and caught some early steam, pushing the number to 212. The Celtics have leaned to the ‘over’ (25-15) this season and they’ve seen eight of their last 10 on the road cash to the high side.

TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 7:05 p.m. ET.

L.A. Clippers (24-16 SU, 24-16 ATS) at Denver (27-12 SU, 22-17 ATS)

This is a weird scheduling spot for the Clippers, who will break up a six-game homestand with a trip to Denver. The Nuggets are also in a dicey spot after playing a back-to-back set at Houston and Miami on Monday and Tuesday respectively.

The pair already played two games at the Staples Center this season and they split those contests. Denver captured a 107-98 win in the season opener on Oct. 17 before Los Angeles avenged that setback with a 132-111 win on Dec. 22.

Oddsmakers sent out Denver -5 ½ with a total of 226 for “Round Three.” This is a tough matchup to figure out because both clubs have been solid for bettors yet they do appear to look like bullies on paper. The Clippers (15-5) and Nuggets (17-5) have both dominated teams below .500 this season, which isn’t a bad thing but it sets you up to be exposed against quality opponents.

Denver (16-3 SU, 13-6 ATS) has been very steady at the Pepsi Center and it has won its last 10 at this venue, while covering eight of those victories. The Clippers have stayed the course on the road (10-10 SU, 11-9 ATS) this season, but the ‘bully’ word appears again for me. Of those 10 wins, only three came against winning clubs – Lakers (LeBron James out), Trail Blazers and Rockets (Chris Paul out).

This is the first game of a home-and-home series as the pair will meet again in Oklahoma City on Friday. Last night, San Antonio got stunned 96-86 at Memphis as a 2 ½-point favorite. The Grizzlies had been in terrible form (0-6 last 6) and the majority of bettors were riding San Antonio blindly. Prior to that loss, the Spurs had won and covered five straight games.

Knowing the Spurs haven’t dropped two straight losses since early December certainly gives you a confidence to back them on Thursday. While that’s a solid reason, looking at San Antonio’s recent form at home may have you running to the betting counter. Head coach Gregg Popovich and company have won and covered six straight and 11 of their last 12 games at the AT&T Center. What’s really amazing about the run for the Spurs is that the lone loss came to the Chicago Bulls (98-93) on Dec. 15.

BookMaker opened the Spurs as one-point favorites but the line has flip-flopped and Oklahoma City is -1 ½ as of Thursday morning. San Antonio was humbled last night in Memphis and playing on zero days rest (1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS) hasn’t worked out for the team this season.

The Thunder do enter this game off two straight losses, both coming at home and as large favorites to a pair of losing clubs in the Wizards (116-98) and Timberwolves (119-117). Oklahoma City has gone 12-9 both SU and ATS on the road this season and that includes a 5-2 run over its last seven away games.

Last season, the home team won all four of the meetings in this series. The Spurs went 3-1 ATS and the ‘under’ went 3-1 as well. Make a note that three of the four games were decided by four points or less.

Tip-off is slated for 9:35 p.m. ET and TNT will provide national coverage.

Detroit (17-22 SU, 17-21-1 ATS) at Sacramento (20-21 SU, 23-17-1 ATS)

For the late-night tip, Sacramento opened as a five-point home favorite over Detroit and it’s been solid in this role, going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. Going back to last season, the Kings have gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight when laying points at home and the ‘under’ has gone 7-1 in those games.

As noted above, check out the Win Total Update and you’ll see how much of a surprise the Kings have been this season. They have come back to earth since Christmas, going 2-6 in their last eight games and they could easily be 1-7 if it wasn’t for a buzzer-beater victory over the Lakers.

They enter this game off a 115-111 loss at Phoenix on Tuesday and the offense fell apart in the second-half, scoring 39 total points after putting 72 on the board in the first 24 minutes. Dropping games to clubs below .500 hasn’t been common for Sacramento, who has helped itself with a 14-4 mark versus winning teams this season.

Fortunately for Sacramento, it will be playing another squad below .500 and a slumping one in Detroit, who lost its third straight game last night in a 113-100 result against the L.A. Lakers. After going 13-7 in the first 20 games of the season, everybody was ripping former coach Stan Van Gundy and praising new Detroit leader Dwane Casey. Sure enough, we’ve started to see the same squad from last season show up as they’ve gone 4-15 in their last 19 games.

Including the setback to L.A. yesterday, Detroit is now 5-6 SU and 6-5 ATS versus the Western Conference and that includes a 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS mark on the road. The Pistons haven’t faced many back-to-back situations but they’re a respectable 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS, while the ‘under’ has gone 3-1.

Last season, Detroit won and covered both meetings against Sacramento which included a 106-90 win as a 3 ½-point road favorite.

The total (224 ½) seems a little high even though Sacramento remains the best ‘over’ bet (27-14) this season. At home, the high side is only 11-10 and Detroit has leaned to the ‘under’ (20-18-1) overall this season.

The Nuggets have been dominant at home all season posting a 16-3 record. Tonight Denver meets a Clippers team that is .500 on the road. When these two teams met three weeks ago it was the Clippers who defeated the Nuggets handily 132-111 to give both teams a win in the season series.

With the Nuggets averaging 112.8 points per game on their home court, and holding opponents to only 101.7, look for Denver to continue their dominance and cover as 5-point favorites at home.

Closely contested

The Spurs have also been a dominant team at home this season posting a 17-5 record. Today they host a Thunder team who have lost two straight outright as 10-point, and 8-point favorites.

With the Spurs winning four of the last five versus the Thunder, look for them to squeak out a win as 1.5-point underdogs versus a Thunder team struggling to get key defensive stops as of late.

Primed for a big night

Spurs guard DeMar DeRozan is having one of his best seasons ever averaging 22.3 points per game on 47.3 percent shooting. He is averaging 6.1 rebounds and 6.4 assists a game, and has logged 27 games with 20 or more points, five with 10 or more rebounds and three with 10 or more assists.

Today he is in a very favorable matchup versus a Thunder squad surrendering an average of 24 points a game and 5.2 assists to opposing shooting guards. Back DeRozan Over his points, rebounds, assists total of 34.5.

Focusing on defense

The Celtics travel to Miami fresh off a 135-108 route of the Pacers last night. The Celtics scored 30 or more points in three straight quarters and shot 56.8 percent as a team against Indiana. They play a Heat team who has lost two straight and hold a 9-12 record this season on their home court.

Defensively, both teams rank in the top 10 in opponent points per game allowing under 106, and rank second and third in terms of opponent shooting percentage with the Heat at 43.9 and the Celtics 44.2. Look for both teams to place an emphasis on defense and force some tough shots. Take Under the total of 213.

Bounce back effort

The Pistons have struggled recently losing six of their last seven contests, but find themselves in a winnable game today versus the Kings. Detroit has won seven of their last 10 games against Sacramento. The Kings are surrendering an average of 116.4 points a game with opponents shooting 47.2 percent from the field.

Detroit’s Andre Drummond struggled last night shooting 2-12 from the floor, but is in an excellent spot today versus a Kings team surrendering 23.3 points on 57 percent shooting, and 19.2 rebounds per game to opposing centers. Take Drummond Over his points, rebounds, assists total of 33.5.

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