Top Headlines: ADP Jobs Report, Europe Unemployment

Eurozone unemployment still rising

U.S. economy slows with high unemployment rates, growing national debt and rising gas prices

College students across the nation face a slowing economy, high unemployment rates, a growing national debt and rising gas prices.

The Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, reported on April 27 that the real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2012. This compares to a 3 percent annual rate increase in real domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2011.

The Bureau emphasized that the first quarter numbers are advanced estimates based on incomplete data. The second estimate for the first quarter is based on more complete data and will be released May 31.

The slowdown in real GDP in the first quarter was primarily due to a deceleration in private inventory investment and a downturn in nonresidential fixed investment. This was partially offset by acceleration in personal consumption expenditures and exports.

“Personal consumption increased by 2.9 percent; that’s an increase from 2.1 percent in the previous quarter. We also saw residential home construction increase by about 19 percent. So there have been four consecutive quarters of improvement in the residential housing sector. That’s the first time that that’s happened since 2005.”

The unemployment rate has been more than 8 percent for the preceding 39 consecutive months. In April the unemployment rate was 8.1 percent. The unemployment rate is even higher among teenagers at 24.9 percent, blacks at 13 percent and Hispanics at 10.3 percent according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). More than 12.5 million Americans are unemployed and searching for a job.

U.S. Unemployment Rate U-3

Source:U.S.Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

The main reason the unemployment rate has fallen in recent months is the significant decline in the labor participation rate resulting in a smaller labor force. During the Bush administration, the labor participation rate was usually in the 66 percent to 67 percent range. During the Obama administration, the labor participation rate has fallen from a high of 65.8 percent in February, 2009 to a low of 63.6 percent in April 2012, the lowest in 3 decades. The labor force is shrinking as more and more Americans become discouraged and leave the labor force when they are unable to find a job after many months of searching for employment. The labor force declined by 342,000 in April according the BLS.

U.S. Labor Participation Rate

Source:U.S.Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

The nonfarm payrolls increased by 115,000 jobs in April, the lowest job gain in six months. The February and March job estimates were revised upward by a total of 53,000. Nonfarm payroll is the total number of paid U.S. workers of any business excluding employees of farms, private households, nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals, and general government. Nonfarm payroll accounts for approximately 80 percent of the workers who produce the GDP of the U.S.

Change in Nonfarm Payroll in Last Six Months

November

December

January

February

March

April

157,000

223,000

175,000

240,000

154,000

115,000

Source:U.S.Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

When George W. Bush became President in January 2001, the employment level was 137.7 million. The employment level peaked in November 2007 at 146.5 million. When Obama became President in January 2009, the employment level was 142.1 million. The employment level bottomed out in December 2009 at 137.9 million. In April the employment level was 141.8 million or 4.7 million fewer people employed than in November 2007.

U.S. Employment Level in thousands

Source:U.S.Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

On Bush’s first day in office, the national debt was $5.7 trillion. Bush added $4.9 trillion to the national debt during his eight years in office. On Obama’s first day in office, the national debt was $10.6 trillion. Obama will have added more than $5.3 trillion to the national debt during his four years in office. In just 12 years of massive government deficit spending, the national debt will have increased more than $10 trillion.

Today the U.S. total gross national debt exceeds $15.7 trillion or more than $50,000 per citizen or $138,000 per taxpayer, with annual interest on the debt exceeding $225 billion, according to www.usdebtclock.org. The national debt exceeds 100 percent of U.S. GDP, the total value of final goods and services. Should Obama be re-elected, his budgetary projections would result in a national debt exceeding $20 trillion by 2016. Massive government deficit spending, a rapidly rising national debt and interest payments are major concerns of the American people and will be campaign issues in the 2012 election.

The cost of driving has also significantly increased. Gas prices nationally have risen from an average of $1.85 in January 2009 to $ 3.83 or more today.

Much of this increase in gasoline prices at the pump is due to excessive speculation in crude oil future contracts by large financial institutions, according to Michael Greenberger, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Francis King Carey School of Law and formerly a Futures Trading Commission director in the Division of Trading & Markets. Greenberger wrote:

“A host of prominent economic studies from inter alia, Stanford, Princeton, Texas A&M University and the London School of Economics, as well as analysis by such prominent market observers as Nouriel Roubini from the Stern School of Business at New York University, have concluded that the five-year volatility in the price of crude oil is substantially due to excessive speculation in crude oil derivative markets. These studies do not conclude that market volatility principally derives from supply/demand fundamentals.”

If the upward trend in gas prices continues into the summer and fall months, the economy would most likely slow even more and unemployment rates rise even higher. In the next 12 months, the U.S. economy might even enter another recession with two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP. This would directly affect college students and who they vote for in the 2012 elections.

Background Articles and Videos

Employment Situation Summary

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed USDL-12-0816
until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, May 4, 2012
Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- APRIL 2012
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment
rate was little changed at 8.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services,
retail trade, and health care, but declined in transportation and warehousing.
Household Survey Data
Both the number of unemployed persons (12.5 million) and the unemployment
rate (8.1 percent) changed little in April. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men
(7.5 percent), adult women (7.4 percent), teenagers (24.9 percent),whites
(7.4 percent), and Hispanics (10.3 percent) showed little or no change in
April, while the rate for blacks (13.0 percent) declined over the month.
The jobless rate for Asians was 5.2 percent in April (not seasonally
adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over)
was little changed at 5.1 million in April. These individuals made up 41.3
percent of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed
has fallen by 759,000. (See table A-12.)
The civilian labor force participation rate declined in April to 63.6 percent, while the employment-population ratio, at 58.4 percent, changed little.
(See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes
referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged in
April at 7.9 million. These individuals were working part time because their
hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
(See table A-8.)
In April, 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force,
essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally
adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were
available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.
They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in
the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 968,000 discouraged workers in April,
about the same as a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.)
Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they
believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.4 million persons
marginally attached to the labor force in April had not searched for work
in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance
or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April. This increase
followed a gain of 154,000 in March and gains averaging 252,000 per month
for December to February. In April, employment rose in professional and
business services, retail trade, and health care. Transportation and
warehousing lost jobs over the month. (See table B-1.)
Employment in professional and business services increased by 62,000 in
April. Since a recent low point in September 2009, employment in this
industry has grown by 1.5 million. In April, employment in temporary help
services edged up by 21,000. Employment grew in architectural and
engineering services (+7,000) and in computer systems design and related
services (+7,000).
Retail trade employment rose by 29,000 over the month. General merchandise
stores added 21,000 jobs in April but has shown no definitive trend in recent
months. Employment in building material and garden supply stores continued to
trend up; the industry has added 19,000 jobs since December.
Health care continued to add jobs (+19,000) in April. Within the industry,
employment in ambulatory health care services, which includes home health care
and offices of physicians, rose by 15,000.
Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking
places continued to trend up (+20,000) in April. Since February 2010, food
services and drinking places has added 576,000 jobs.
Manufacturing employment continued to trend up (+16,000) in April, with
job growth in fabricated metal products (+6,000) and machinery (+5,000).
Since its most recent employment low in January 2010, manufacturing has
added 489,000 jobs, largely in durable goods manufacturing.
Transportation and warehousing lost 17,000 jobs in April, with employment
declines in transit and ground passenger transportation (-11,000) and in
couriers and messengers (-7,000).
Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, construction,
wholesale trade, information, financial activities, and government changed
little in April.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged
at 34.5 hours in April. The manufacturing workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to
40.8 hours, and factory overtime rose by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average
workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls
was unchanged at 33.8 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
In April, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls
rose by 1 cent to $23.38. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have
increased by 1.8 percent. In April, average hourly earnings of private-sector
production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 3 cents to $19.72.
(See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised from +240,000 to +259,000, and the change for March was revised from +120,000 to +154,000.
______________
The Employment Situation for May is scheduled to be released on
Friday, June 1, 2012, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).

Employment Level

Series Id: LNS12000000

Seasonally Adjusted

Series title: (Seas) Employment Level

Labor force status: Employed

Type of data: Number in thousands

Age: 16 years and over

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Annual

2001

137778

137612

137783

137299

137092

136873

137071

136241

136846

136392

136238

136047

2002

135701

136438

136177

136126

136539

136415

136413

136705

137302

137008

136521

136426

2003

137417(1)

137482

137434

137633

137544

137790

137474

137549

137609

137984

138424

138411

2004

138472(1)

138542

138453

138680

138852

139174

139556

139573

139487

139732

140231

140125

2005

140245(1)

140385

140654

141254

141609

141714

142026

142434

142401

142548

142499

142752

2006

143150(1)

143457

143741

143761

144089

144353

144202

144625

144815

145314

145534

145970

2007

146028(1)

146057

146320

145586

145903

146063

145905

145682

146244

145946

146595

146273

2008

146397(1)

146157

146108

146130

145929

145738

145530

145196

145059

144792

144078

143328

2009

142187(1)

141660

140754

140654

140294

140003

139891

139458

138775

138401

138607

137968

2010

138500(1)

138665

138836

139306

139340

139137

139139

139338

139344

139072

138937

139220

2011

139330(1)

139551

139764

139628

139808

139385

139450

139754

140107

140297

140614

140790

2012

141637(1)

142065

142034

141865

1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.

Civilian Labor Force Level

Series Id: LNS11000000 Seasonally Adjusted

Series title: (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level

Labor force status: Civilian labor force

Type of data: Number in thousands

Age: 16 years and over

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Annual

2001

143800

143701

143924

143569

143318

143357

143654

143284

143989

144086

144240

144305

2002

143883

144653

144481

144725

144938

144808

144803

145009

145552

145314

145041

145066

2003

145937(1)

146100

146022

146474

146500

147056

146485

146445

146530

146716

147000

146729

2004

146842(1)

146709

146944

146850

147065

147460

147692

147564

147415

147793

148162

148059

2005

148029(1)

148364

148391

148926

149261

149238

149432

149779

149954

150001

150065

150030

2006

150214(1)

150641

150813

150881

151069

151354

151377

151716

151662

152041

152406

152732

2007

153144(1)

152983

153051

152435

152670

153041

153054

152749

153414

153183

153835

153918

2008

154075(1)

153648

153925

153761

154325

154316

154480

154646

154559

154875

154622

154626

2009

154236(1)

154521

154143

154450

154800

154730

154538

154319

153786

153822

153833

153091

2010

153454(1)

153704

153964

154528

154216

153653

153748

154073

153918

153709

154041

153613

2011

153250(1)

153302

153392

153420

153700

153409

153358

153674

154004

154057

153937

153887

2012

154395(1)

154871

154707

154365

1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.

Labor Force Participation Rate

Series Id: LNS11300000 Seasonally Adjusted

Series title: (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate

Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate

Type of data: Percent or rate

Age: 16 years and over

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Annual

2001

67.2

67.1

67.2

66.9

66.7

66.7

66.8

66.5

66.8

66.7

66.7

66.7

2002

66.5

66.8

66.6

66.7

66.7

66.6

66.5

66.6

66.7

66.6

66.4

66.3

2003

66.4

66.4

66.3

66.4

66.4

66.5

66.2

66.1

66.1

66.1

66.1

65.9

2004

66.1

66.0

66.0

65.9

66.0

66.1

66.1

66.0

65.8

65.9

66.0

65.9

2005

65.8

65.9

65.9

66.1

66.1

66.1

66.1

66.2

66.1

66.1

66.0

66.0

2006

66.0

66.1

66.2

66.1

66.1

66.2

66.1

66.2

66.1

66.2

66.3

66.4

2007

66.4

66.3

66.2

65.9

66.0

66.0

66.0

65.8

66.0

65.8

66.0

66.0

2008

66.2

66.0

66.1

65.9

66.1

66.1

66.1

66.1

65.9

66.0

65.8

65.8

2009

65.7

65.8

65.6

65.6

65.7

65.7

65.5

65.4

65.1

65.0

65.0

64.6

2010

64.8

64.9

64.9

65.1

64.9

64.6

64.6

64.7

64.6

64.4

64.5

64.3

2011

64.2

64.2

64.2

64.2

64.2

64.1

64.0

64.1

64.1

64.1

64.0

64.0

2012

63.7

63.9

63.8

63.6

Unemployment Rate U-3

Series Id: LNS14000000 Seasonally Adjusted

Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate

Labor force status: Unemployment rate

Type of data: Percent or rate

Age: 16 years and over

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Annual

2001

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.9

5.0

5.3

5.5

5.7

2002

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.9

6.0

2003

5.8

5.9

5.9

6.0

6.1

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.1

6.0

5.8

5.7

2004

5.7

5.6

5.8

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.4

5.4

2005

5.3

5.4

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.0

5.0

4.9

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.9

2006

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.4

2007

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

5.0

2008

5.0

4.9

5.1

5.0

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.1

6.1

6.5

6.8

7.3

2009

7.8

8.3

8.7

8.9

9.4

9.5

9.5

9.6

9.8

10.0

9.9

9.9

2010

9.7

9.8

9.8

9.9

9.6

9.4

9.5

9.6

9.5

9.5

9.8

9.4

2011

9.1

9.0

8.9

9.0

9.0

9.1

9.1

9.1

9.0

8.9

8.7

8.5

2012

8.3

8.3

8.2

8.1

Employers in U.S. Added Fewer Jobs Than Forecast in April

By Shobhana Chandra

“…Employers in the U.S. added fewer workers than forecast in April and the jobless rate unexpectedly declined as people left the labor force, underscoring concern the world’s largest economy may be losing speed.

Payrolls climbed 115,000, the smallest gain in six months, after a revised 154,000 rise in March that was more than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 160,000 advance. The jobless rate fell to a three-year low of 8.1 percent and earnings stagnated.

A slowdown in hiring as corporate optimism cools may restrain the wage growth needed to fuel consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Federal Reserve policy makers view unemployment as “elevated” and plan to hold borrowing costs low through late 2014. …”

“…Through the magic of Washington Math and the Obama Labor Department, the metric “unemployment rate” has become as nonsensical as “jobs created or saved” by the stimulus. The Obamedia creates a free campaign ad out of the purported drop from 8.3% to 8.2% (i.e., from appalling to marginally less appalling), but meantime millions have been added to the black-hole category of “Not In the Labor Force” — people who are so discouraged that they are not looking for work. That number is at an all-time high: 88 million. Thus the labor force participation rate, at under 64%, is lower than it’s been in 30 years. Mish Schedlock concludes, “Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment

rate would be well over 11%.”

Instead of giving the Left ammunition by bizarrely implying that our outlook is improving, maybe the Romney campaign could give some thought to breaking through the fudged “unemployment rate” chatter. Something like: