What-Ifs at the Tour de France

A choose-your-own-adventure look at the Tour de France.

I'm not normally one for alternative histories. You know, the ones where Hitler wins or the Post-it note had never been invented.

But I understand the allure. It's tempting to look at past events and see what might have gone differently. And the 2012 Tour de France is a study in the outsize effect of sometimes small events in a bigger universe.

Let's consider a few scenarios.

—If Jurgen Van Den Broeck doesn't drop a chain with 11km to go on Stage 7, he doesn't have to chase a bloc to try to get back in contact before the final climb up to Planche des Belles Filles. VDB said he made it back to within 10 meters of the leaders' wheels when he blew up, losing 1:52. Perhaps that wouldn't have changed his time-trial result, but the race would have been between four riders, not three, and Jurgen's Lotto-Belisol teammate, Jelle Vanendert, has proved an excellent lieutenant in the mountains.

—If Ryder Hesjedal alone from Garmin makes it through to the front group on the devastating Stage 6 crash, he's still in the race and healthy. Days before the Tour start, he'd beaten his previous best time by over a minute and a half on the ascent of the Rocacorba, a noted training climb near Girona, Spain. With Cadel Evans not on his 2011 form and Nibali and VDB vulnerable in time trials, Hesjedal might have been the most complete challenger to Wiggins.

—If the rider Sky loses to a Stage 3 crash isn't Konstantin Sivtsov but instead Chris Froome, it changes Sky's ability to control the race. (Froome did crash on Stage 3 but near the finish and was unhurt.) Sivtsov is a gifted climber but it's hard to imagine anyone in the world going better than Froomey is right now, as his Stage 11 acceleration—which dropped leader Brad Wiggins—showed. Also, Sivtsov isn't nearly as good in the time trials as Froome. Part of Sky's dominance at the Tour is that, while the team is working solely for Wiggins, Froome is a plan B that most teams would be overjoyed to have as their leader.

—And lastly, what if Froome wasn't on Sky? This is now just idle speculation but, last August, it was a real possibility. Froome was late into his second season with Sky and had pedestrian results. His ability was limited by a persistent battle with bilharzia, a parasitic disease that can cause severe gastrointestinal distress.

Sky was on the verge of letting him go, and his agent, Alex Carera, was shopping him to other teams. But when Froome outrode his leader at the Vuelta Espana, Sky reconsidered and ultimately re-signed Froome to a three-year deal.

Some part of Froome's ascendance can certainly be ascribed to Sky, where he enjoys top-level support and works with sports scientists like Tim Kerrison. But you can't develop nonexistent talent and Sky certainly isn't the only team to produce top stage racers. Had another team been more aggressive in pursuing Froome before his Vuelta show, he might be riding against rather than for Wiggins.

About Boulder Report

Boulder, Colorado-based contributor Joe Lindsey offers investigative journalism, analysis and humor about cycling. A popular slogan in this cycling and university town is "Keep Boulder Weird." Lindsey's certainly doing his part.