Monthly Minders

The dollar meanwhile, has so much going on it can be confusing. The daily
and weekly charts show support lost and bearish divergence by RSI. The monthly
however shows bullish divergence intact longer term, a bearish rising wedge
into resistance and support on the coming(?) wedge breakdown at 86's.

What does unchecked euphoria, momentum and speculative gaming equal? Why,
a likely trip to the 450's of course. This even though more and more advisors
are predicting a major correction, which certainly leaves open the possibility
of more upside - for the METAL, not necessarily the gold stocks.

Adding to the theme of general confusion, we see oil flashing contradictory
signals as well. The chart says it may have found support here and will head
back north. Many are expecting it, as is this writer. But the monthly chart
says oil could easily visit the low 50's before any resumed uptrend.

Odds and Ends:

Although bearish newsletter writers don't want to hear it, the US manufacturing
sector is currently booming, and by all personal anecdotal evidence, much more
so than official ISM figures have thus far indicated. Machine tools cannot
be kept in stock. Raw materials such as copper, brass and aluminum are flying
off the shelves, but not for hording. They are being fashioned into end products.
This is our fundamental reason for being bullish oil (however tentatively at
the moment) and paper goldbugs should remember that higher oil will be decidedly
not good for miners' bottom lines unless gold goes orbital. Metal goldbugs
don't worry about such things.

It has become a foregone conclusion that the US productive sector is all but
dead. Biiwii.com will soon present commentary
centered around the brilliant comment made by a friend of ours: "If American
manufacturing were a stock, it would be deeply over sold."

Disclaimer:http://www.nftrh.com does
not recommend that any trading or investment positions be taken based on views
expressed on this site. If you speculate or invest it is suggested that you
consult a financial advisor qualified in your area of interest.