In this Sept. 16, 2016 file photo, Lisa Gao compares a new jet black iPhone 7, right, with her iPhone 6 at the Apple Store in Chicago. A study by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners said Apple grew its iPhone customer base in the U.S. to 136 million in the first quarter of 2017. However, the iPhone growth rates are slowing down compared to prior years.

However, the number of iPhone units sold actually declined by 1 percent from a year ago, leading some Apple watchers to wonder if the iPhone’s days of glory are behind it. Those sentiments were countered with the argument that many consumers could be holding out on buying new iPhones until they see what Apple has in store to mark the 10th anniversary of the iPhone later this year.

But there is more evidence that while the iPhone is still growing, that growth is occurring at a slower rate than in years past. A new study by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP) says that in the U.S., the iPhone could be reaching a saturation point.

The CIRP study, which was released Friday, says the iPhone’s installed base in the U.S. reached 136 million phones at the end of the first quarter of this year. That was a gain of just 4 million phones, or 3 percent, over the 132 million iPhones in use at the end of 2016. The iPhone’s user base in the first quarter also rose 15 percent over the same period a year ago.

By comparison, iPhones in use in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2016 rose 37 percent over the first quarter of 2015, according to CIRP.

CIRP also said that much of the current iPhone installed base consists of phones released since 2014, when the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus were released. And people who are buying iPhones are holding on to them for longer lengths of time before getting a new model.

“Growth in the U.S. installed (base) has slowed considerably in the past year,” said Mike Levin, partner and co-founder of CIRP, in a statement. “Many factors contribute to this, including the lengthening ownership cycle, a diminishing number of first-time buyers, and increased Android loyalty.”

Levin said that while iPhone growth may be flattening out in the U.S., the size of the user base offers up an opportunity to set up services as its next major area of growth. “It makes sense that Apple has turned to services revenue as it seeks to monetize this stable base of customers.”

But, with growth in Apple’s biggest market showing signs of cooling down, Levin said that the company is also facing the matter of how much it can grow in developing regions, and whether services will become the next big thing in Apple’s history of innovation.

“The question remains, what is iPhone’s saturation level in less mature markets around the world,” Levin said. “And to what extent growing service revenue can compensate for flattening U.S. iPhone sales.”

Rex Crum is the senior web editor for the business section for The Mercury News and Bay Area News Group. He also writes about business and technology for the publications' print and web editions, and has covered business and technology for nearly two decades. A native of Seattle, he remains a diehard Seahawks and Mariners fan and is imparting his fandom to his Oakland-native wife and two young daughters.

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