Much needed rain fell across Oklahoma yesterday with some snow Friday night into Saturday. Good that last night's precipitation was liquid as 0.62 inches fell. That would have been 4-6 inches of snow.

The next few days will be quiet with the only sensible weather being periodic airmass changes. Today – Wednesday will be quite nice with temperatures warming to the upper 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday. By late Wednesday a northern stream shortwave trof moves north of the region and pushes a cold front through Oklahoma. This will have a little Pacific air with it and should cool us down into the low 50s on Thursday. The mid-level flow is rather progressive so the cold down will be short-lived with temperatures warming into the mid 50s on Friday. There will be several reinforcing shots of cold air as the mid-level flow remains progressive and several northern stream shortwave trofs traverse east across the northern U.S.

Forecast for this weekend is once again a low confidence one as models are in poor agreement regarding the evolution of a western U.S. southern stream shortwave trof. 00z/06z GFS wants to phase the trof into a large full latitude system and move it across the region on Sunday/Monday. The 12z 11/25 GFS is less phased and a little quicker. The 00z ECMWF is somewhat in agreement with the 00z GFS. The difference is huge as the 00z/06z GFS would be an all rain event given strong southerly flow. The 12z GFS's weaker southern stream system, lagging a stronger northern stream system would allow for freezing rain potential. OUN has hinted at the accompanying airmass being of a shallow nature and that is certainly possible. I'm going 15% on the winter precip for CYA and will handle any developments with special discussion. While freezing rain events are possible and there is cold air loading in Canada, it is still a tough sell in late November. Freezing rain events are much morelikely in late December through early February. It will be something to watch as Canadian/Arctic air have a way of ignoring the models. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday are equally high bust potential with the range from the low 30s to upper 40s. —For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.