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A good economist will always give you a prediction or a timeframe, but never both. This applies to a great deal of people outside of economists and market pundits and I think it also has to do with the fact that asset managers generally garner more respect regarding predictions than economists do. You see, a money manager HAS to give you both. There is no hedging in the commentary from an asset manager because they’re backing up predictions with an investment portfolio. Portfolio managers are in the business of making predictions AND offering timeframes.

But economists and market pundits have the luxury of offering you a prediction and then essentially saying “it will happen, just you wait….and by the time it hasn’t happened you’ll have forgotten I ever made the prediction”. It’s a glorious business, the business of making predictions in the world of economics. That’s why I generally don’t trust or put much credence in the predictions made by most mainstream economists. In fact, I’d say that most economists don’t even make predictions. They just make really loosely described macro comments and then cherry pick the ones they want at a later date.

But still, I have to wonder – how much longer do we have to hear about surging interest rates, bond vigilantes, hyperinflation, imminent USA default and all of the other terrible predictions made by various market pundits over the years before people start to just flatly reject the framework from which they work? Or do we just live in a world where anyone can say anything and no one is held accountable for being totally wrong? What do the readers think? Is it too early to proclaim all these predictions wrongs? Or can we finally start to question the theoretical framework that is the basis of these ideas?