Tag Archives: Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner

Today is election day in the federal riding of Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner. Polls are open from 8:30 a.m. to 8:30 p.m.

What was expected to be a sleepy by-election campaign in this long-time Conservative-held riding in southeast Alberta turned out to be surprisingly exciting. More than 2,000 Albertans showed up to see Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at a rally for local Liberal Party candidate Stan Sakamoto, marking the first time a sitting prime minister has visited Medicine Hat since 1993.

Mr. Sakamoto is a well-known local businessman and appears to be fairly popular in the city.

Glen Motz

Conservative Party candidate Glen Motz is a retired police officer and also appears to be a fairly well-liked figure in the community. The Conservatives won this riding with 68.8 percent of the vote in October 2015 and Mr. Motz is expected to win. Interim party leader Rona Ambrose was in the riding last week and was met by a crowd of 500 local Conservatives.

Mr. Trudeau has said “I know that this is one we can win,“ but the odds of Mr. Sakamoto winning the by-election still feel like a long-shot. I expect that Conservatives know this, but the strong turnout to Mr. Trudeau’s rally in this southern Alberta city has likely spooked the Conservative establishment.

Not a headline I ever would have expected to read from a newspaper in Medicine Hat.

A Liberal win in this by-election would send shockwaves through the Conservative Party, but a strong second place would be a success for the Liberals, who last earned more than 20 percent of the vote in this riding in the 1993 election.

Meanwhile, despite being officially connected, neither the federal or provincial New Democratic parties appear to have put much public effort or resources into supporting candidate Bev Waege during this by-election campaign. As Toronto Star columnist Chantal Hebertnoted today, “this byelection has illustrated the dysfunctional nature of the relationship between the federal NDP opposition and Alberta’s New Democrat government.”

This is a race between a Liberal underdog and a Conservative favourite.

A federal by-election will be held in the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner riding on October 24, 2016. Voters in the riding are choosing a successor to Conservative Member of Parliament Jim Hillyer, who died in March 2016.

Lawyer Richard Billington is the third candidate to enter the Conservative nomination race in Calgary-Heritage to replace former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who resigned earlier this month. Mr. Billington joins party activist Bob Benzen and city prosecutor Paul Frank. As noted in a previous post, Mr. Billington ran for the Conservative nomination in Calgary-Centre in 2012 and has served as the President of the Conservative association in Calgary-Heritage for the past three years.

The Conservative nomination meeting in Calgary-Heritage is scheduled to take place on October 22, 2016, but could be pushed ahead if a by-election is called earlier. An open forum is expected to be held with the nomination candidates on October 12 or 13, 2016.

Kenny to resign this week

After spending the summer campaigning for the leadership of the provincial Progressive Conservative Party, Jason Kenney is expected to resign as MP for Calgary-Midnapore on September 23, 2016. Mr. Kenney had announced earlier this summer that he would resign on October 1, 2016, when the PC leadership race officially begins, but he announced last week at a campaign stop in St. Albert that he would resign one week earlier. A by-election must be called within six months of his resignation, which would be March 23, 2017.

Conservative Glen Motz and Libertarian Sheldon Johnston appear to be the only two candidates to so far step up to run in the upcoming federal by-election in Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner. The by-election has not been called yet but it will be called within the next 40 days – on or before the six month deadline of Sept. 26, 2016.

Barring a political earthquake, it is expected the Conservative Party candidate will win the by-election in this sprawling southeast Alberta riding with a large Mormon community and a strong social conservative base.

Former Member of Parliament Jim Hillyer, who died earlier this year, was re-elected on October 5, 2015 with 68 percent of the vote, compared to 17 percent for Liberal Glen Allan and 9 percent for NDPer Erin Weir.

Provincially, the area covered by the federal riding is represented by Cypress-Medicine Hat MLA Drew Barnes and Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Grant Hunter of the Wildrose Party and Medicine Hat MLA Bob Wanner of the New Democratic Party. Mr. Wanner is the Speaker of Alberta’s Legislative Assembly.

Jason Kenney said last week that he will resign as the Member of Parliament for Calgary-Midnapore when the Progressive Conservative Party leadership campaign officially starts on October 1, 2016. He is expected to spend the summer months campaigning for the party leadership while presumably continuing to have access to MP resources and collecting his Ottawa salary and pension.

If Mr. Kenney does go on to win the leadership of the PC Party in March 2017, he may look for an opportunity to quickly become an MLA. If interim party leader Ric McIver were to resign as MLA for Calgary-Hays, he would create an opening for Mr. Kenney to enter the Legislature.

In return, Mr. McIver could potentially seek the federal Conservative nomination to run in the by-election to replace Mr. Kenney in Calgary-Midnapore. The Calgary-Hays constituency is inside the boundaries of the Calgary-Sheperd federal riding but was until 2015 partially in Calgary-Southeast, a federal riding represented by Mr. Kenney from 1997 until 2015.

Mr. McIver represented southeast Calgary as an Alderman from 2000 to 2012 and as an MLA since 2012. A jump into federal politics would be a natural fit. He would become one of the few Canadian politicians to have been elected at three orders of government and it would also give Mr. McIver an honourable path to bow out of provincial politics without seeking the party leadership for a second time.

Michael Connolly

Of note, Calgary-Hawkwood NDP MLA Michael Connolly was briefly nominated as the federal NDP candidate in Calgary-Midnapore before he decided to instead throw his hat into provincial politics before the 2015 election, which turned out to be a good choice. Mr. Connolly was elected as MLA in May 2015 and Mr. Kenney was re-elected in October 2015 with 70 percent of the vote.

A federal by-eleciton is expected to be called soon in the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner federal riding and another will be held in the Calgary-Heritage riding after former Prime Minister Stephen Harper resigns as MP, which he is expected to do this summer.

In anticipation of the three by-elections, I am maintaining a special page to keep track of the three potential federal by-elections in Alberta.

Glen Motz will be the Conservative Party of Canada candidate in the upcoming federal by-election in the riding of Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner. Mr. Motz defeated five other men, including former Wildrose Party leader and Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Paul Hinman, in a contest that drew more than 3,100 party members to vote. The candidate was chosen on a fourth round of voting using a preferential ballot system.

He also has some social conservative views that are probably closer to the mainstream in this sprawling rural south east Alberta riding than they are in most of Canada.

“I’m pro-life, there’s no question. Unfortunately it’s the law of the land in this country,” Mr. Motz is reported to have told a crowd of supporters at a candidate’s forum in June 2016. “I will continue to fight that the rights of the unborn are not eroded further. I believe in the sanctity of life.”

Women’s reproductive rights and gay rights were some of the top issues debated by a field of white male candidates in the last nomination contest held in this riding in 2014.

This is one of the most reliably Conservative voting ridings in Canada, so it is almost a certainty that Mr. Motz will be the next Member of Parliament. Mr. Hillyer earned 68.8 percent of the vote when he was re-elected in October 2015.

Calgary-Heritage

Another federal by-election is expected to be held in the Calgary-Heritage riding if former Prime Minister Stephen Harperresigns as an MP later this summer as predicted. The names of a handful of potential nominees for the Conservative nomination have been rumoured, including Calgary-HaysProgressive Conservative MLA Ric McIver.

While it is expected that the Conservatives will easily hold on to this riding, the Liberals did see their share of the vote skyrocket from 7 percent in the 2011 election to 26 percent in the 2015 election (the Conservative vote in this riding dropped from 74.3 percent in 2011 to 63.7 percent in 2015).

Brendan Miles

The Liberals also saw their vote share increase significantly in four federal by-elections held in Alberta before the 2015 election, including in Calgary-Centre in 2012. Without the appeal of an incumbent Conservative MP or a sitting Prime Minister, the Liberals could see their vote increase in this by-election as well.

He does not appear to have officially declared his intentions to run for the Liberal Party nomination, but past candidate Brendan Miles has been knocking on doors in the riding for months and the local Liberal association is holding a pancake breakfast during the Calgary Stampede.

Following the death of Conservative Member of Parliament Jim Hillyer on March 23, 2016, Elections Canada has announced that a by-election must be called in the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner electoral district before September 26, 2016. The earliest a by-election could be held is May 16, 2016.

A map of the electoral district.

By-elections can produce unexpected results, as we have seen recently in Alberta, but as one of the strongest Conservative voting areas of the country, it is very likely the next MP for this area will be a Conservative. Mr. Hillyer was elected in October 2015 with 68 percent of the vote, ahead of LiberalGlen Allan with 17 percent and New DemocratErin Weir with 9 percent (not that Erin Weir).

Candidates running for office usually reserve their harshest criticism for their political opponents, but in southern Alberta a rookie Conservative candidate and retiring Member of Parliament are turning on one Conservative MP running for re-election.

Rachael Harder

Local media reported that Conservative candidate Rachael Harder lambasted former Lethbridge Conservative MP Jim Hillyer at a forum hosted by the local Chamber of Commerce, claiming that the city endured “four years of non-representation” and “have suffered for the last four years” with her Conservative predecessor as their Member of Parliament.

But Mr. Hillyer is still running for re-election in the neighbouring riding of Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner. Due to a change in electoral district boundaries, Mr. Hillyer’s hometown of Raymond is now in the new riding.

Mr. Hillyer shot back at Ms. Harder, telling a local radio station that she is also facing some of the criticisms she levelled against him. “They’re saying the same things she said about me. She’s not attending forums, she’s not listening, she’s not there,” Mr. Hillyer told CJCY radio.

@hatmedhat talked with many of his current constituents who had nothing good to say about him, he is known as no show Hillyer. — LaVar Payne (@LaVarMP) October 7, 2015

Mr. Payne had previously announced in 2014 that he would not endorse Mr. Hillyer in his bid to become MP for the new riding.

Mr. Hillyer was first elected to parliament in 2011 and when the electoral boundaries were redrawn in 2014 he initially announced he would run against Mr. Payne for the Conservative nomination in the new Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner riding. After what was likely a stern directive from his Ottawa bosses not to challenge a fellow MP, he then announced that he would run for re-election in Lethbridge.

Almost immediately after Mr. Payneannounced that he would retire, Mr. Hillyer then jumped back into the nomination race in the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner riding.

Despite the public tension between the two Conservatives, it is likely that both Mr. Hillyer and Ms. Harder be elected to the House of Commons, which could make for an awkward working relationship in Ottawa.

The ten Alberta Conservatives are part of a group of 86 Conservative candidates from across Canada who have received endorsements from the organization. Nine of the ten Alberta candidates on the list are men and six are incumbent MPs running for re-election (even Stephen Harper is deemed “not supportable” by this organization).

These four candidates, along with Mr. Hillyer, responded to a questionnaire from the Campaign Life Coalition affirming their opposition to women’s reproductive rights. The other five Conservatives were endorsed based on their voting records and public statements.

According to the organization’s website, Mr. Cooper “has been actively involved in the pro-life movement for many years and is known to CLC leaders.”

Here are the links to the ten Alberta candidates report cards and questionnaire responses:

With reports that the Conservatives may call the next federal election as soon as next week, resulting in an potential eleven week election campaign, parties are still nominating candidates in Alberta. The Conservatives and Liberals are close to nominating a full-slate of candidates, with 33 and 25 candidates nominated in the province’s 34 ridings. The New Democratic Party is quickly choosing candidates after pausing nominations earlier this year to focus on the provincial election (which appears to have paid off for the NDP, as they won the provincial election).

Here is the latest list of federal nomination updates from Alberta:

– Haley Brown defeated Harbaksh Sekhon and Tanya MacPherson to become the Liberal candidate in Calgary-Midnapore.

– Teacher Bruce Kaufman has announced plans to seek the NDP nomination in the Calgary-Nose Hill riding. The nomination meeting is tentatively scheduled for August 25, 2015.

– Teacher and lawyer Kerry Cundal was acclaimed as the Liberal candidate in Calgary-Signal Hill. She is an adjudicator with the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada. Mrs. Cundal replaces Katherine Kowalchuk, who withdrew as the Liberal candidate to focus on her legal business.

– Geoffrey Cappannounced plans to run for the far-right Christian Heritage Party in Lethbridge. Mr. Capp previously ran in this riding in the 2011 and 2008 elections. He was the Christian Heritage candidate in Yukon in the 1993, 1997, 2001 and 2004 federal elections.

– Erin Weir, a registered nurse, has been acclaimed as the NDP candidate in southern Alberta’s Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner riding.

These updates have been added to the list of nominees and nomination candidates planning to run in Canada’s 2015 general election in Alberta. Please email david.cournoyer [at] gmail.com if there are additions to the list. Thank you.

Lethbridge MP Jim Hillyer is running for the Conservative nomination in the newly created Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner riding.

The Medicine Hat News reports that women’s health issues and the rights of sexual minorities were the hot topics at a debate between Dan Hein and MP Jim Hillyer, the two candidates running for the Conservative Party of Canada nomination in southern Alberta’s newly redistributed Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner riding.

“…I’m not interested in somebody parading in front of me their sexual preferences, whether hetero or anything else … I don’t believe it is proper form, I don’t believe it benefits anyone to bring this stuff out in garrish fashion and parade it in the public square.”

Hein added he doesn’t believe a restaurant owner should be obliged to serve a person whether it’s the way he cuts his hair or “any reason.”

In response to the same question, Hillyer said, “a lot of the trouble with the social and moral issues is the people who don’t share our views on these issues are very clever and very sly. They hijack our language — it’s like 1984 newspeak or doublespeak.”

The Medicine Hat News also reported that Mr. Hillyer told the crowd he was “wildly and boldly” opposed to a woman’s right to choose to have an abortion.

Mr. Hein is the past-president of the local Conservative riding association and was campaign manager to retiring Conservative MP LaVar Payne. Mr. Hillyer is a first-term MP for Lethbridge and is seeking the nomination in the new Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner riding because of boundary changes.

In the 2011 election, Mr. Payne received 71.3% of the total vote in the Medicine Hat riding. His closest challenger, New Democrat Dennis Perrier, placed a distant second with 13%. Mr. Hillyer received 56.5% of the vote in Lethbridge in the 2011 election. His closest challenger, New Democrat Mark Sandilands, earned 27.2%.

Conservative Party members in the riding will begin voting for their next candidate on Thursday.

The Lethbridge -> Medicine Hat Shuffle
Almost as soon as Medicine Hat MP LaVar Payne announced that he will retire at the next election, neighbouring MP Jim Hillyer jumped into the nomination race to replace him. The controversial Mr. Hillyer, who has represented the Lethbridge riding since 2011, had initially announced he would run against Mr. Payne for the Conservative nomination in the redrawn Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner, but was then sternly directed by his Ottawa bosses not to challenge a fellow MP. But once Mr. Payne announced his retirement, Mr. Hillyer jumped back into the Medicine Hat race.

As a nomination challenger, he faces Dan Hein, the former president of the local Conservative association and former the campaign manager for Mr. Payne in 2011.

Fort McMurray-Cold Lake
Fresh off the by-election campaign trail in Fort McMurray-Athabasca, the Liberals are expected to nominateKyle Harrietha as their candidate in their candidate in Fort McMurray-Cold Lake on July 26 (the current riding boundaries will change when the next federal election is called). Conservative Member of Parliament David Yurdiga is expected to be automatically acclaimed as his party’s candidate because of the recent by-election.

Edmonton-Centre
The Liberals will hold a nomination meeting on August 7, 2014 where party members will have their choice of three candidates – entrepreneur Randy Boissonnaultand lawyers Don Padget and Harold Robinson.

Randy Boissonnault

On July 15, Conservatives gathered for what was described as a “soft launch” event for James Cumming, President and CEO of the Edmonton Chamber of Commerce, in support of his potential campaign for the Conservative nomination in Edmonton-Centre. Current MP Laurie Hawn has announced his plans to retire at the next election.

Edmonton-Strathcona Liberal activist Wendy Butler, artist Heather Workman(aka Lady Dolphin), and lawyer Eleanor Olszewski are running for the Liberal nomination in this south central Edmonton riding. Lawyer and Edmonton-Gold Bar Progressive Conservative association president Len Thom is seeking the Conservative nomination. The riding has been represented by NDP MP Linda Duncan since 2008.

Edmonton-Riverbend
On May 5, Valerie Kennedy was acclaimed as the Green Party candidate in Edmonton-Riverbend. Ms. Kennedy was the Green Party candidate in Edmonton-Leduc in 2011. where she earned 2,896 votes (4.87% of the votes cast).

Nicole van Kuppenveld

Edmonton-West
Local hotel manager Kelly McCauley has jumped into the Conservative contest in this new west Edmonton riding. Before moving to Edmonton, Mr. McCauley was the president of the Victoria Conservative association. He now faces Edmonton-McClung PC MLA David Xiaoand Edmonton Police Constable Brad Rutherford for the nomination.

Edmonton-Wetaskiwin
MP Mike Lake defeated Leduc County mayor John Whaley for the Conservative nomination in this new mostly-south of Edmonton riding. A third candidate, Mohinder Banga was disqualified shortly before the nomination vote was held.

The opinions expressed on this blog represent my own and not those of my employer or any organization I may be affiliated with.

In addition, my thoughts and opinions change from time to time. I consider this a necessary consequence of having an open mind. This blog is intended to provide a semi-permanent point in time snapshot and manifestation of the various ideas running around my brain, and as such any thoughts and opinions expressed within out-of-date posts may not the same, nor even similar, to those I may hold today.