Monday, November 26, 2007

....polling data suggests that, at least in Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney may occupy his own space. In other words, it may be that Romney has his own core of solid support, such that gains by other candidates, even Huckabee, don't come at his expense.

...The big move, of course, has come from Huckabee. In August, his support roughly doubled, from 5 to 10 percent. He surged again beginning in mid October. Since then, his popularity has doubled again and now stands at about 20 percent.

As in New Hampshire, Huckabee's gain came at Thompson's expense. However, in Iowa it also came at Giuliani's ...

But the constant in New Hampshire and Iowa has been Romney's ability to hold his support when other candidates have surged. This could change, of course, as the field concentrates its resources on bringing down Romney.

Still, it's not difficult to imagine the existence of a sizeable core of voters who are solidly behind Mitt. This group would consist of Republicans who are looking for a combination of administrative experience/aura of competence plus down-the-line conservative positions, and who are not concerned about past positions, speculation over electability or the candidate's religion.