BlogRSShttp://www.ocppc.ma/feedrss2
enHow Chinese Investment in Latin America Is Changinghttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/how-chinese-investment-latin-america-changing%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : How Chinese Investment in Latin America Is Changing<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-03-14T00:00:00+01:00">Thursday, March 14, 2019</span><br />
Author : Otaviano Canuto<br />
Related program : Long term development<br />
Description : <p class="rtejustify" style="font-size:15px"><strong>China's push for Latin American consumers reflects changes back home. </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Chinese financing in Latin America is changing. After becoming a major source of capital flows to Latin America and the Caribbean over the past 15 years, a more diverse range of investors has surfaced, interested in channeling resources towards infrastructure, governments and state companies.</p>
<br />
<p class="rtejustify">The profile of the Chinese investment in the region tracks the evolution of China’s economy as it moves toward a higher reliance on <a href="http://www.policycenter.ma/publications/china’s-growth-rebalance-downslide" target="_blank">services and domestic consumption</a>.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"> Lending by the China Development Bank and China’s Eximbank was, until recently, directed mostly to infrastructure and the energy sector. In recent years, however, China’s development lending to Latin America and the Caribbean has been larger than lending from the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the CAF Development Bank of Latin America combined.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Of the estimated <a href="https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/cautious-capital-chinese-development-finance-in-lac-2018/" target="_blank">$140 billion China has lent to </a>Latin America since 2005, over 90 percent has gone to four countries – Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, and Ecuador. More than 80 percent of China’s <a href="https://publications.atlanticcouncil.org/china-fdi-latin-america/AC_CHINA_FDI.pdf" target="_blank">foreign direct investments</a>, either as greenfield investments or through mergers and acquisitions, have gone to Brazil, Peru and Argentina, with Mexico also rising as a destination for manufacturing investment in recent years.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">This shift in focus has brought the emergence of new investors. Direct investment in the region went from almost nothing in 2005 to likely passing <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/publications/reports/latin-america-china-trade-and-investment-amid-global-tensions" target="_blank">$110 billion by 2018</a>. The initial focus was on the extractive industry (oil, gas, copper, and iron ore), but currently, more than half of the flows are going to services. Chinese investors' pursuit of opportunities in transport, finance, electricity generation and transmission, information and communications technology, and alternative energy services catering to local markets is growing at rapid speed.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">China-backed commercial financial institutions and platforms have also established their footprint in the region, actively engaging in private sector deal-making. Besides co-financing projects and setting up regional investment funds, four major Chinese commercial banks have ramped up operations in the region, many in partnership with international banks. The scale and number of transactions may be smaller, compared to the lending spree led by development banks, but point to a qualitative change in the structure of financing options coming from China.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Increased participation of non-state investors has introduced new sources of dynamism and diversification to Chinese direct investment in Latin America. Brazil’s emerging tech industry, for instance, has successfully and continuously attracted high-profile Chinese investments. Additionally, Chinese participation in mergers and acquisitions into specific value-added sectors reflects new consumption habits in China, ranging from vineyards in Chile to meat-packing plants in Uruguay.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Attention to risk when looking at potential returns has also come to the fore among Chinese investors, particularly after the experience with Venezuela. As domestic regulations and lending caps tighten in China given concerns with its increased financial fragility, a more stringent look at the country's development lending can be expected.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">State-owned enterprises still lead among Chinese investors in Latin America and the Caribbean, from mining, infrastructure and oil and gas to hydroelectric plants. China’s policy response to the global financial crisis in the form of large-scale stimulus given to infrastructure and housing sectors generated excess domestic capacity in heavy industry and in real estate, while financially boosting industries such as construction, retail and wholesale trade, hotels and restaurants. This overcapacity then went to look for foreign markets. In fact, China’s physical integration abroad via the <a href="https://www.cmacrodev.com/overlapping-globalizations/" target="_blank">“One Belt, One Road” initiative</a> has become a vehicle to put its overcapacity in construction and heavy industry to work elsewhere.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Recent episodes of contention with Latin American governments around environmental impacts and corruption associated with some previous lending deals have highlighted the need for China’s investment finance to <a href="https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/cautious-capital-chinese-development-finance-in-lac-2018/" target="_blank">reckon with risks</a> and the fallout from environment and governance issues. Official<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/chinas-investment-in-latin-america/" target="_blank"> guidelines</a> on environment and social policies for Chinese companies investing abroad have been issued, signaling the matter has caught the attention of Chinese authorities.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">If Chinese deals used to be limited to construction – winning concessions, building a project, then leaving – new equity investments in Latin America indicate longer-term interests and ownership in projects beyond its construction to include operation, maintenance and more. This is especially true in port projects.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">The speed and intensity of China’s growth-cum-structural-change has been to a large extent matched by the profile and volume of its capital flows to Latin America over the last 15 years. One may expect the continuation of a sizable Chinese footprint in the region. In order to maximize development bang-for-the-buck, however, the responsibility lies on the quality of Latin America’s domestic policies and the negotiation of agreements.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/how-chinese-investment-latin-america-changing" target="_blank">First appeared at Americas Quarterly</a></p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-03-14T00:00:00+01:00">Thursday, March 14, 2019</span>Otaviano Canutohttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/how-chinese-investment-latin-america-changing%22%3Eview%3C/a%3EDjibouti, au centre des jeux d’influencehttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/djibouti-au-centre-des-jeux-d%25E2%2580%2599influence%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : Djibouti, au centre des jeux d’influence<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-03-11T00:00:00+01:00">Monday, March 11, 2019</span><br />
Author : Sara Mokaddem<br />
Related program : Geopolitics and International Relations<br />
Description : <p class="rtejustify">Indépendant depuis seulement 1977, Djibouti, jeune République de moins d'un million d'habitants, s’est transformé en un acteur régional doté d’un poids stratégique et commercial considérable.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Bordé par l’Érythrée, au Nord, par l’Ethiopie, à l’Ouest, et par la Somalie, au Sud-est, sa frontière maritime orientale jouxte la mer Rouge et le golfe d’Aden. Ainsi, situé sur le détroit de Bab el Mandeb, d’une largeur de seulement 19km, Djibouti offre un positionnement privilégié afin d’observer et de sécuriser ce quatrième plus important passage maritime pour l’approvisionnement énergétique mondial, principalement celui de la Chine. La récente expansion chinoise dans cette porte de l’Afrique, tant au niveau économique que militaire, constitue un signe annonciateur d’un nouvel ordre mondial, pouvant faire de Djibouti un point de conflit majeur dans une nouvelle course des puissances pour le continent.</p>
<br />
<p class="rtecenter"><strong>Un hub militaire pour des puissances aux intérêts différents</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Au cours de la dernière décennie, plusieurs menaces directes, allant de la piraterie au large des côtes Somaliennes à la guerre au Yémen, ont confirmé la centralité de ce goulot d’étranglement dans la géopolitique mondiale. Djibouti se retrouve, dès lors, pris au milieu des jeux de pouvoir internationaux et héberge, donc, plus de bases militaires étrangères que tout autre pays. Plusieurs armées aspirent à se positionner à Djibouti. Les militaires français, américains, japonais, ainsi que ceux de la Force navale européenne (EU NAVFOR) s’y trouvent déjà. Récemment, les Chinois s’y sont installés alors que les Saoudiens<sup>1</sup> seraient en train de négocier un camp pour leurs besoins logistiques liés à la guerre au Yémen.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Seule base militaire américaine permanente dans le continent, le Camp Lemonnier abrite la force d’intervention conjointe du Commandement des États-Unis pour l’Afrique (AFRICOM). Avec 4000 soldats déployés, le site est utilisé pour des opérations antiterroristes, notamment pour les frappes de drones dans les pays voisins, la Somalie et le Yémen. Soulignant l’importance stratégique du pays pour le Pentagone, l’ancien Secrétaire américain à la Défense, Jim Mattis, s’est rendu à Djibouti en avril 2017, seulement quelques mois avant l’ouverture de la première base militaire outre-mer de l’Armée populaire de libération (APL).</p>
<p class="rtejustify">En raison de sa politique de « non-ingérence », la Chine peine toujours à justifier son désir d'une présence militaire à l'étranger<sup>2</sup> . Cependant, même si la Chine continue d’éviter l’usage d’une terminologie militaire explicite pour en parler, préférant utiliser les termes « installations de soutien » ou « installations logistiques »<sup>3</sup> , des exercices de tirs réels ont été organisés un mois, à peine, après l’ouverture de cette base d’une capacité de 10000 soldats.</p>
<p class="rtecenter"><strong>Emplacement des bases militaires à Djibouti </strong></p>
<p class="rtecenter"><strong>(Source : Globalsecurity.org)</strong></p>
<p><strong><img alt="" src="/ckfinder/userfiles/images/mapBlog.png" style="width: 100%" /></strong></p>
<p>De plus, choisissant la petite ville côtière d'Obock (carte ci-dessus) -où débuta la colonisation française en 1862-, la Chine se positionne géographiquement face aux Etats-Unis, comme pour illustrer la rivalité qui existe entre Washington et Pékin<sup>4</sup> .</p>
<p class="rtecenter"><strong>Un point d’entrée pour la Chine </strong></p>
<p>La base chinoise à Djibouti pourrait être un signe avant-coureur d’autres activités à venir dans la région<sup>5 </sup>. En effet, les démarches chinoises s'inscrivent dans le cadre d'une politique naissante d'engagement militaire global, qui s'étend de la mer de Chine méridionale à l'Afrique orientale. L'un des principaux mécanismes permettant d'atteindre cette stratégie, connue sous le nom de « collier de perles »<sup>6</sup> , est la mise en place d'une marine solide, permettant à la Chine de projeter sa puissance à travers le monde. Il va de soi qu’alors que la Chine poursuit sa politique d'investissements en Afrique, la sécurité de ses placements est d’une importance cruciale.</p>
<p>Djibouti n’est, donc, pas seulement un avant-poste militaire pour la Chine, le ‘’petit’’ Etat africain est également au cœur de l’initiative « une ceinture, une route » (One Belt, One Road) , annoncée par le président Xi Jinping en 2013. Le pays a lourdement investi, ces dernières années, dans des projets d'infrastructure à grande échelle ; le port polyvalent de Doraleh, le chemin de fer Ethiopie-Djibouti, lancé en janvier 2018, et la canalisation d’eau Ethiopie-Djibouti, tous financés par la Chine. Cette dernière a activement participé à cet effort, et s’est imposée comme un partenaire essentiel.</p>
<p class="rtecenter"><strong>Les autres puissances ont du ‘rattrapage’ à faire </strong></p>
<p>Le caractère transformateur des projets soutenus par la Chine dans la région, notamment à Djibouti, place les autres partenaires bien derrière Beijing dans leur stratégie en Afrique.</p>
<p>Il aura fallu beaucoup de temps avant que l’administration Trump reconsidère<sup>7</sup> sa stratégie à l’égard du continent face à la Chine. L’adoption du BUILD Act, loi pour une meilleure utilisation des investissements américains, et la mise en place de l’International Development Finance Corporation (USIDFC), qui devrait être opérationnelle, fin 2019, annonce ce changement d’approche. Le pilier de la nouvelle stratégie américaine sera basé sur la promotion des relations commerciales entre les États-Unis et l’Afrique.</p>
<p>Pour la France, consciente d’avoir perdu son avantage historique avec ce seul pays francophone de la région, l’approche générale s’inscrirait dans une logique de ‘rattrapage’ <sup>8</sup>. Cependant, si l'investissement à Djibouti est le moyen proposé pour accroître leur influence, les Chinois pourraient certainement avoir une longueur d'avance.</p>
<p>Néanmoins, l’endettement de Djibouti envers la Chine représente plus de 60% de la dette publique du pays. De plus, l’intérêt ravivé de certains pays du Golfe pour la Corne de l’Afrique, ainsi que la soudaine période de « détente » dans les relations intra régionales, qui érode les avantages stratégiques du port de la capitale djiboutienne, offrent une géopolitique changeante à travers laquelle Djibouti doit essayer de naviguer sans perdre le cap. Pour cela, le soutien de ses partenaires historiques est maintenant le bienvenu.</p>
<p>-----------</p>
<p><sup>1 </sup><a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20171128-djibouti-welcomes-saudi-arabia-plan-to-build-a-military-base/" target="_blank">https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20171128-djibouti-welcomes-saudi-arabia-plan-to-build-a-military-base/ </a></p>
<p><sup>2</sup> <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2018/11/27/la-chine-ne-peut-s-empecher-de-meler-commerce-et-politique-en-afrique_5389342_3212.html">https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2018/11/27/la-chine-ne-peut-s-empecher-de-meler-commerce-et-politique-en-afrique_5389342_3212.html</a></p>
<p><sup>3 </sup><a href="http://http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-07/13/c_136441371.htm" target="_blank"> </a><a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-07/13/c_136441371.htm" target="_blank">http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-07/13/c_136441371.htm</a>; <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201708/02/WS59bb53d8a310d4d9ab7e24fc.html" target="_blank">http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201708/02/WS59bb53d8a310d4d9ab7e24fc.html</a></p>
<p><sup>4 </sup><a href="https://www.dw.com/fr/djibouti-military-base-a-manifestation-of-chinas-global-interests/a-39659013" target="_blank">https://www.dw.com/fr/djibouti-military-base-a-manifestation-of-chinas-global-interests/a-39659013</a></p>
<p><sup>5 </sup><a href="https://thediplomat.com/2018/12/chinas-djibouti-base-a-one-year-update/" target="_blank"> https://thediplomat.com/2018/12/chinas-djibouti-base-a-one-year-update/</a></p>
<p><sup>6</sup> <a href="https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/cartes/chine-strategie-encerclement" target="_blank">https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/cartes/chine-strategie-encerclement </a></p>
<p><sup>7</sup> <a href="http://www.policycenter.ma/publications/fin-de-la-r%C3%A9cr%C3%A9ation-de-washington-face-%C3%A0-p%C3%A9kin-le-retour-des-etats-unis-en-afrique" target="_blank">http://www.policycenter.ma/publications/fin-de-la-r%C3%A9cr%C3%A9ation-de-washington-face-%C3%A0-p%C3%A9kin-le-retour-des-etats-unis-en-afrique </a></p>
<p><sup>8</sup> <a href="https://www.afd.fr/fr/strategie-djibouti-2017-2021" target="_blank">https://www.afd.fr/fr/strategie-djibouti-2017-2021</a></p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-03-11T00:00:00+01:00">Monday, March 11, 2019</span>Sara Mokaddemhttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/djibouti-au-centre-des-jeux-d%25E2%2580%2599influence%22%3Eview%3C/a%3EElections présidentielles en Algérie . Le plan ‘’B’’ deviendra-t-il la solution ‘’A’’ ?http://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/elections-pr%25C3%25A9sidentielles-en-alg%25C3%25A9rie-le-plan-%25E2%2580%2598%25E2%2580%2599b%25E2%2580%2599%25E2%2580%2599-deviendra-t-il-la-solution-%25E2%2580%2598%25E2%2580%2599%25E2%2580%2599%25E2%2580%2599%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : Elections présidentielles en Algérie . Le plan ‘’B’’ deviendra-t-il la solution ‘’A’’ ?<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-03-08T00:00:00+01:00">Friday, March 8, 2019</span><br />
Author : Abdelhak Bassou<br />
Related program : <br />
Description : <p class="rtejustify">Bouteflika ou ceux qui utilisent son image sont allés jusqu’au bout. Ils ont déposé la candidature du président sortant pour un cinquième mandat consécutif. Ni les gesticulations d’une opposition dépassée par les événements, et qui a préféré le boycott à la lutte, ni le mouvement des foules qui rappelle un certain ‘’Printemps arabe’’, n’ont dissuadé le régime de se maintenir dans sa position initiale : faire briguer au président un 5ème mandat.</p>
<br />
<p class="rtecenter"><strong>Panne d’alternatives </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Pourtant, aucun esprit raisonnable et raisonnant ne miserait sur une personne affaiblie par la maladie, au point de ne pouvoir déposer, par elle-même, son dossier de candidature, comme le prévoit la constitution. Pire, cela fait presque six ans que le président est sans voix. Durant tout un mandat, le président algérien ne s’est jamais adressé à ses concitoyens. Durant ces six ans - chose très étonnante- le régime n’a pas pu trouver une alternative !!! Il ne fallait pas être extra lucide en 2014 pour deviner qu’en 2019, il serait très difficile d’imposer, à un peuple, un président au sommet de l’impotence. Mais alors pourquoi n’ont-ils rien trouvé ? Une personnalité algérienne avait dit un jour que l’Algérie n’a pas de mécanisme institutionnel d’alternance à la haute magistrature de l’Etat, mais le système s’en sort toujours, d’une manière ou d’une autre. A croire cette personnalité, le système s’en sortira encore cette fois. Opposition ou pas, colère populaire ou pas ; le régime s’en sortira. Mais alors comment ?</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Il est possible que toute la période du mandat écoulé a dû être dépensée dans des luttes internes entre les cercles du pouvoir. Mais, ces différents cercles étaient certainement conscients que 2019 arriverait et que sans compromis, ils risqueraient de perdre au profit d’un inconnu, voire de l’inconnu ! Toutes ces personnes, restées au pouvoir, pour certaines, « éloignées ou limogées », pour d’autres, savaient pertinemment qu’elles ne pouvaient pas compter sur une candidature de Bouteflika en 2019. Son clan se crispait, certes, au fauteuil de président, mais savait également que cette crispation ne pouvait servir que de monnaie d’échange afin d’obtenir des garanties de privilèges et d’immunités par la future présidence. Le clan opposé à Bouteflika, toujours dans le même cercle, devait leur offrir une sortie « étudiée » et leur garantir, sinon la continuité de leurs privilèges, du moins l’immunité contre toute poursuite pour les actions passées.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Aujourd’hui, Bouteflika s’est présenté aux élections ; mais il est gravement malade. Il est hospitalisé à Genève et il quittera l’hôpital sur un véhicule, peut-être plus horizontal, qu’un fauteuil roulant. Que doit-on faire si Bouteflika décède à Genève ? Qu’arrivera-t-il, si la candidature de Bouteflika est retirée pour maladie grave ; sous la pression de la rue, ou, même si j’en doute, par invalidation de sa candidature par le Conseil constitutionnel ? Peut-on annuler les élections ? La raison et le droit disent que non. Peut-on les reporter ? Quand est-ce qu’on a reporté une élection pour cause de retrait, volontaire ou obligé, d’un candidat ? Les élections se feront, ou du moins doivent se faire, avec ou sans Bouteflika. Vingt candidats ont déposé leurs dossiers au Conseil constitutionnel. Qui sur les vingt candidats, en cas de défection de Bouteflika, de bon gré ou forcée, pourrait faire l’unanimité entre le peuple qui est dans la rue ; la technostructure, la nomenklatura du pouvoir, les militaires, retraités et en fonction, l’opposition et tout le beau monde impliqué dans la situation actuelle ? Lisez, relisez autant de fois que vous le voulez la liste des candidats et vous ne trouverez qu’un seul nom capable de se faire admettre par tous, de faire le jeu de tous :<strong> Ali Ghediri, l’ancien général. Le retrait d Abderrezak Makri et de Ali Benflis a ouvert un boulevard devant l’ancien général en cas de forfait de Bouteflika. Pour l’empêcher de passer, il faut annuler les élections ou les reporter. Sinon faire réélire le président mourant par la force, quitte à réprimer la rue. </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">En dépit du ton menaçant de Gaïd Salah, il est fort improbable que l’armée intervienne pour réprimer le mouvement populaire, le faire taire, ou lui imposer un nouveau mandat de Bouteflika.</p>
<p class="rtecenter"><strong>Ali Ghediri, le plan ‘’B’’ du régime ?</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Reste à savoir si la candidature du général Ghediri est spontanée, ou si l’homme a été préparé pour ses futures fonctions. Il avait quitté, ou on lui avait fait quitter, l’armée en 2015, quelques mois après le début du quatrième mandat de Bouteflika. Il est allé préparer une thèse de Doctorat à l’Université d’Alger et devient, comme il aime le confirmer, un citoyen civil, en ne cessant de répéter que, contrairement à plusieurs de ses pairs-anciens militaires, il ne vit que de sa pension. Si c’est vrai, je ne veux pas en douter, qui va financer sa campagne ? On connait les liens étroits du général Ghediri avec Isaad Rebrab, le richissime homme d’affaires algérien, même s’il refuse d’en parler. Rebrab n’est pas dans le cercle des grands sympathisants du régime, mais ira-t-il jusqu’à le défier, en sponsorisant un candidat dont le régime n’en veut pas ? Il ne faut pas oublier, qu’Isaad Rebrab a prospéré sous le règne de Bouteflika. Ce dernier n’a pas touché aux monopoles sur les importations de produits de grande consommation dont bénéficiait Rebrab dès le début des années 1990<sup>1</sup> . Si Rebrab soutient et sponsorise Ali Ghediri, ce n’est sûrement pas sans une ‘’bénédiction’’ de qui de droit.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Plusieurs médias racontent une guerre déclarée entre Ali Ghediri et Gaïd Salah, accusant ce dernier de tout faire pour dynamiter la candidature du premier. Cependant, en fouillant dans les détails on s’arrêterait sur cette phrase prononcée par Ali Ghediri en janvier de cette année : "D’après ce qui s’écrit et se dit, certains demandent un report de la présidentielle, d’autres, la continuité. Tous les schémas anticonstitutionnels sont mis sur la table. <strong>Connaissant de près le général de Corps d’armée Ahmed Gaïd Salah, je me défends de croire qu’il puisse avaliser la démarche d’aventuriers. (...) Je reste convaincu que le général Gaïd Salah ne permettra à qui que ce soit de violer la Constitution d’une manière aussi outrageuse."</strong> Ali Ghediri connait, donc, Gaïd Salah de près, et il lui fait confiance quant au respect de la Constitution. De là à comprendre pourquoi la candidature d’Ali Ghediri est tolérée par Gaïd Salah il n’y a qu’un pas facile à franchir.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Le système algérien a anticipé les difficultés que constitue la transition entre les 20 années de Bouteflika et un régime nouveau à imaginer, et a, donc, dès 2015, entamé le stratagème qui permettrait de présenter au peuple une sorte de candidat ‘’rebelle’’ et antisystème ; mais qui, en même temps, garantirait à la noblesse du régime la continuité de ses privilèges et immunités, et permettrait à la junte militaire de rester au pouvoir.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>J’oserais, donc, tenter l’hypothèse que Bouteflika n’ira pas jusqu’au bout de sa candidature et le chemin restera libre devant Ali Ghediri pour donner l’impression d’une révolution qui, en réalité, s’apparente plus à un tir à blanc, qu’à un réel changement. Ali Ghediri, fut un plan ‘B’ ; mais il est en voie de devenir la solution ‘A’.</strong> </p>
<p class="rtejustify">-----------</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><sup>1</sup> Voir :<a href="https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/grand-est/ardennes/charleville-mezieres/cinq-choses-savoir-issad-rebrab-pdg-cevital-qui-investit-charleville-mezieres-1571036.html" target="_blank"> https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/grand-est/ardennes/charleville-mezieres/cinq-choses-savoir-issad-rebrab-pdg-cevital-qui-investit-charleville-mezieres-1571036.html</a></p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-03-08T00:00:00+01:00">Friday, March 8, 2019</span>Abdelhak Bassouhttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/elections-pr%25C3%25A9sidentielles-en-alg%25C3%25A9rie-le-plan-%25E2%2580%2598%25E2%2580%2599b%25E2%2580%2599%25E2%2580%2599-deviendra-t-il-la-solution-%25E2%2580%2598%25E2%2580%2599%25E2%2580%2599%25E2%2580%2599%22%3Eview%3C/a%3ECan Public and Private Partnerships Bridge the Gap in Infrastructure Investments? The Case of Developing Asiahttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/can-public-and-private-partnerships-bridge-gap-infrastructure-investments-case-developing%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : Can Public and Private Partnerships Bridge the Gap in Infrastructure Investments? The Case of Developing Asia<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-03-07T00:00:00+01:00">Thursday, March 7, 2019</span><br />
Author : Rim Berahab<br />
Related program : <br />
Description : <p class="rtejustify">A well-functioning modern infrastructure is essential for social and economic development. It has the power to change the quality of life of populations as well as the prospects of businesses. Despite developing Asia’s remarkable economic performances since the 1980s, the region still faces important difficulties in delivering adequate infrastructure services. “Over 400 million Asians do not have electricity access; 300 million live without safe drinking water and 1.5 billion without basic sanitation” (<a href="https://www.adb.org/publications/potential-ppp-asia-infrastructure" target="_blank">ADB, 2019</a>). As public funds and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) will not be enough to meet the region’s rising demand for infrastructure, cooperating with the private sector, through Public and Private Partnerships (PPPs) could, in theory, close this financing gap.</p>
<br />
<p class="rtecenter"><strong>The complexity of PPP projects in infrastructure in Developing Asia</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Asia’s PPPs landscape has been evolving rapidly throughout the years. The waves of privatization that occurred during the 1980s and 1990s have paved the way for the increased participation of the private sector in providing essential public assets and services. This shift was driven by widespread fiscal and debt crises in the region, inefficiencies in public spending and inadequately managed state-owned enterprises. Regarding infrastructure projects, in particular, Developing Asia accounted for nearly 3,400 PPP projects in infrastructure during the period 1991-2017, roughly half of all PPPs in developing countries. And the number of PPPs that reached final closure in Developing Asia has grown by 11% on average annually during the same period (<a href="https://ppi.worldbank.org/visualization/ppi.html#sector=&amp;status=&amp;ppi=&amp;investment=&amp;region=&amp;ida=&amp;income=&amp;ppp=&amp;mdb=&amp;year=&amp;excel=false&amp;map=&amp;header=true" target="_blank"> Private Participation in Infrastructure Database</a>).</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Yet, these positive trends were not enough to close the gap in infrastructure financing. Indeed, the estimated financing necessary to meet the infrastructure needs of developing countries in Asia reaches 1.5 $ trillion annually between 2016 and 2030. When taking into consideration climate mitigation and adaptation, this amount increases even more. In comparison, the region’s current investment in infrastructure made up “only” 881 billion dollars. In addition, public spending still accounts for over 90% of funding for infrastructure. Therefore, one might wonder why there are such discrepancies between the data observed and reality.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">In fact, looking at the data at the aggregated level (as shown above), while it gives useful information, it can be very misleading. First, despite the rising number of PPP projects, they are unequally distributed across developing countries of Asia. Indeed, China and India alone, accounted for 70% of those projects between 1991 and 2017, while five major Southeast Asian economies namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam accounted for only 20%. In addition to this, in countries such as Singapore and Brunei Darussalam, that had access to abundant public funds or had very strong institutions, PPPs did not play an important role in infrastructure development, which partly explains the dominance of the public sector in financing infrastructure (<a href="https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/444631/ewp-553-ppp-development-southeast-asia.pdf" target="_blank">F. Zen, 2018</a>).</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Moreover, PPPs investments in developing Asian countries are faced with significant obstacles hindering their success. A big disincentive is the high risk of project cancellations. Between 1991 and 2017, 288 PPP projects in developing countries worldwide were cancelled, of which 40% were in developing Asia. Other disincentives include the lack of detailed procedures in the implementation of PPPs, incoherent PPPs policies across the region and overly complex projects. In Malaysia for instance, the lack of government guidelines and procedures, lengthy delays in negotiations and other delays caused by political skepticism have undermined PPP projects (<a href="http://repo.uum.edu.my/13349/" target="_blank">I. Suhaiza and F. Harris, 2014</a>).</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Therefore, mobilizing further financing for PPPs with the aim to close the infrastructure gap requires a set of prerequisites that must be met by developing Asian countries first, in order to reap the socioeconomic benefits of PPPs.</p>
<p class="rtecenter"><strong>What are the conditions to increase financial mobilization for PPPs and ensure their effectiveness?</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">The success of PPP projects lies in their practical features of a “life-cycle perspective on infrastructure, innovative financing, a focus on service delivery, and risk-sharing by public and private sector partners, which traditional procurement lacks” (<a href="https://www.adb.org/publications/potential-ppp-asia-infrastructure" target="_blank">ADB, 2019</a>). However, increasing financial mobilization for PPPs and ensuring their success requires developing Asian countries to meet specific conditions to create a more favorable environment.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Studies have found that <strong>macroeconomic factors</strong>, like economic growth and inflation, can determine whether a PPP project may fail or succeed (<a href="https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/438966/ewp-552-ppps-infrastructure-asia-capital-market.pdf" target="_blank">S. Hyun, D. Park, and S. Tian, 2018</a>). Indeed, overly optimistic demand projections and failure to mitigate exchange risks had led to severe financial problems of a railway PPP project in Thailand for instance (<a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/research-centres-and-groups/centre-for-transport-studies/Success-and-Failure-in-Urban-Transport-Infrastructure-Projects.pdf" target="_blank">Allport et al. 2008</a>), and rising inflation during the Asian financial crisis caused the failure of Kuala Lumpur’s light rail transit project. In addition, the response of monetary policy to inflation also affects project financials and bank lending to these projects.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Besides macroeconomic factors, the <strong>strength of bank balance sheets</strong> is another determinant of the success of PPPs, as banks usually play an important role in financing early stages of those projects. This is particularly the case for developing countries in Asia where large banks only seem willing to finance infrastructure PPP schemes if countries have achieved satisfactory conditions for growth and a reasonable risk profile regarding the ratio of total debt to GDP. This implies that attracting private financing for infrastructure PPP projects through project finance, in particular, is dependent on policies for sustaining growth (<a href="https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/445881/ewp-554-project-financing-infrastructure-ppp-projects.pdf" target="_blank">Rao, 2018</a>).</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Furthermore, <strong>strong institutions and a dedicated legal framework</strong> are crucial for increasing financial mobilization of PPPs. Indeed, attracting private financing for project finance do not depends solely on policies supporting sustained economic growth, but also on the efficiency of the legal system, which would give banks creditor rights on the one hand, and enforce and protect project finance contracts on the other. Studies further suggest that the use of project finance as a financing tool in PPP infrastructure projects may help mitigate information asymmetry problems because it promotes risk transfer and optimal allocation among PPP stakeholders. Moreover, fostering strong governance, greater transparency, and less corruption can improve the domestic investment climate leading to successful PPP projects (<a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/man/sespap/0413.html" target="_blank">Ouattara, 2004</a>;<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2014/pdf/schwartz-ruiz-nunez-chelsky.pdf" target="_blank"> Schwartz, Ruiz-Nuñez, and Chelsky 2014</a>). The Republic of Korea is often cited as an example of successful PPP projects. Their use for infrastructure, since the mid-1990s, has delivered significant positive economic and social benefits through the channels of capital inflows, increasing social welfare benefits, better delivery of services, and reducing fiscal burdens through better value for money.</p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-03-07T00:00:00+01:00">Thursday, March 7, 2019</span>Rim Berahabhttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/can-public-and-private-partnerships-bridge-gap-infrastructure-investments-case-developing%22%3Eview%3C/a%3ELe mouvement des gilets jaunes : « Un printemps Français » ? http://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/le-mouvement-des-gilets-jaunes-%25C2%25AB-un-printemps-fran%25C3%25A7ais-%25C2%25BB%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : Le mouvement des gilets jaunes : « Un printemps Français » ? <br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-03-04T00:00:00+01:00">Monday, March 4, 2019</span><br />
Author : Helmut Sorge<br />
Related program : Geopolitics and International Relations<br />
Description : <p class="rtejustify"><strong>« Blocages », « Crise politique », « émeutes », « révolution ». Jean-Luc Mélenchon, le député du parti La France insoumise, a parlé « d’une insurrection citoyenne » à propos des gilets jaunes. Comment peut-on définir, aujourd’hui, les auteurs de ce mouvement qui occupent les espaces publics ? Menacent-ils la démocratie ? Sont-ils aussi inédits que le prétendent la plupart des commentateurs ? Quelles seront les conséquences de ces manifestations sur la scène internationale ? </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>Helmut Sorge, auteur et ancien correspondant à la Maison Blanche, et Jean Zaganiaris, enseignant chercheur à l’EGE Rabat, UM6P, débattent de ce sujet d’actualité. Le premier a vécu les événements de Mai 68, en France, le second a publié des chroniques sur le mouvement des gilets jaunes et se trouvait régulièrement en France entre le 17 novembre 2018 et fin janvier 2019. </strong></p>
<br />
<p class="rtecenter"><strong>PARTIE 1</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>H.S :</strong> Dans un article dans Le Monde Diplomatique, Serge Halimi déclare que sur la place de l’Opéra, le 15 décembre 2018, trois gilets jaunes se sont adressés au peuple français et au président Macron, en lisant l’allocution suivante : <em>« Ce mouvement n’appartient à personne. Il est l’expression d’un peuple qui depuis 40 ans se voit dépossédé de tout ce qui lui permettait de croire en son avenir et à sa grandeur ». </em>Au nom de qui parlent ces gens-là ? Qui représentent-ils s’ils déclarent, justement, que le mouvement auquel ils appartiennent n’appartient à personne ? Dans un contexte démocratique où, comme le rappellent souvent les différents ministres intervenant dans les médias, le président qui dirige la France a été élu sur des bases démocratiques, est investi de certaines prérogatives conférées par la Constitution. On peut se demander si les actions des gilets jaunes, notamment les plus violentes, ne remettent-elles pas en cause les règles du jeu démocratique.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong> On a l’impression que c’est l’anarchie en France</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>J.Z:</strong> "Ils les remettent en cause parce qu’ils n’y croient plus. Ils ont perdu ce que Pierre Bourdieu aurait appelé « illusio démocratique », c’est-à-dire qu’ils pensent que le jeu démocratique n’en vaut pas la chandelle. Jusqu’à présent, ils ne l’exprimaient que par l’abstention, aujourd’hui, c’est en manifestant dans la rue. Ils ne parlent pas au nom de quelqu’un. Beaucoup ne croient plus dans les règles du jeu de la représentation. J’entendais souvent sur les ronds-points où il y avait des blocages, en Picardie, « il n’y a pas de porte-parole », « Il n’y a pas de responsable ». Ces gens « parlent », car ils ont envie de s’exprimer et d’être écoutés par ceux censés les représenter mais qui ne les écoutent jamais. Certains des gilets jaunes, à tort ou à raison, pensent qu’aux yeux de leurs représentants ils ne représentent rien. Ces événements rappellent qu’il y a deux grands modes d’expression en démocratie, le vote et la manifestation. Le vote concerne la partie procédurale, institutionnelle, de la vie démocratique, la manifestation représente la liberté d’expression, la reconnaissance de contre-pouvoirs, de la possibilité aux citoyens de faire entendre certaines revendications.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>H.S :</strong> Qui sont ces citoyens ? A quelles organisations appartiennent-ils ? Comment cela se passe-t-il concrètement dans la rue ? Lorsqu’on regarde les images de violence à la télévision, on a l’impression que c’est l’anarchie en France.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"> <strong>De Gaulle- De Gaulle </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>J.Z :</strong> On sentait que les manifestants s’étaient organisés pour occuper, pour bloquer, pour se faire entendre et exprimer une colère, un ras-le-bol. Ils investissent la rue, justement, parce qu’ils considèrent qu’ils ne sont représentés par personne… Je trouve cela salutaire qu’en démocratie, des citoyens se mobilisent, sortent dans la rue, revendiquent pour des droits sociaux. Il faut avoir en tête que ce ne sont pas les pauvres, les chômeurs, les jeunes de banlieues qui se sont mobilisés, les choses sont différentes du mouvement des « sans » (sans-papiers, sans-abris) que l’on a vu occuper l’espace public lors des années 2000. Durant mon passage à Paris en janvier 2019, je peux affirmer qu’à Pantin, dans le 93, on ne sent pas le mouvement des gilets jaunes. Ce sont les familles à revenus modestes, vivant souvent avec des gros crédits sur le dos et qui voient leur budget s’amoindrir, qu’on voit parmi les gilets jaunes, ce sont ceux dont l’emploi se fragilise, se précarise et sont soumis à l’incertitude, ce sont des gens avec des contrats à durée déterminée, qui travaillent à mi-temps, les free lances, des intérimaires, des infirmières et des gens des métiers du care voyant s’effriter les droits sociaux, des petits artisans écrasés par les taxes.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>H.S :</strong> En Mai 68, au départ, les étudiants n’étaient pas soutenus par la population. C’était la première fois que des groupes osaient sortir dans la rue. Avant Mai 68, la France n’avait pas connu des mouvements de cette ampleur, surtout contre une personnalité aussi charismatique que l’a été le Général De Gaulle. Lors de cette fameuse journée du 29 mai 1968 où il était parti voir le général Massu à Baden Baden, on pensait que le Général De Gaulle avait disparu de la scène politique. Si les manifestations avaient remis en cause le pouvoir en place, elles n’étaient pas, contrairement à aujourd’hui, une remise en cause des institutions de la République. Mises à part l’Académie et l’Université, avec l’occupation de la Sorbonne, ce n’était pas le fonctionnement démocratique qui était remis en cause, quand bien même il y avait des maoïstes parmi les groupes militants. De plus, en Mai 68, il y avait des porte-parole tels que Daniel Cohn-Bendit, étudiant à Nanterre. Parmi les porte-parole, il y avait également Alain Geismar, Secrétaire général du Syndicat national de l'enseignement supérieur et, Jacques Sauvageot, vice-président de l'Union des étudiants français, il y a la figure d’écrivains, tels que Philippe Sollers et la revue Tel Quel, le Comité d’action étudiants-écrivains animé par Dionys Mascolo, Marguerite Duras ou encore Maurice Blanchot. Mai 68 a démarré à Paris, au quartier latin, à Nanterre. On n’a rien de tout ça avec les gilets jaunes. Il s’agit, d’ailleurs, d’un mouvement qui est parti de Province et s’est ensuite dirigé vers Paris, même si ce n’est pas forcément ceux qui occupaient les ronds-points à Saint-Brieuc ou Béziers qui ont défilé sur les Champs Elysées.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong> ‘’Printemps arabe’’, ‘’Printemps français’’ ? </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>J.Z :</strong> Selon le ministère de l’Intérieur, le samedi 17 novembre, il y a eu 287710 personnes qui ont participé aux manifestations dans toute la France, avec 2034 points de rassemblement. Dans la capitale, ce ne sont que quelques milliers de personnes qui ont manifesté, la mobilisation n’a pas attiré grand monde, me racontait quelqu’un sur place. Vers 19 heures, le préfet de police de Paris signalait 29 blocages dans la capitale et 400 personnes manifestant vers l’Etoile et la Concorde. C’est après que le désir de se rendre dans la capitale s’est exprimé publiquement par les manifestants sur les réseaux sociaux et les médias.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>HS :</strong> Sans internet pas de gilets jaunes ! Ils ont su mobiliser les foules beaucoup efficacement que les chargés de communication des politiques, en allant sur les réseaux sociaux ! Comment expliquez-vous cette forte mobilisation ?</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>J. Z</strong> : Il a été affirmé que les réseaux sociaux ont provoqué le « Printemps arabe ». Je ne suis pas de cet avis. Internet est un outil utilisé par les militants, pas un catalyseur qui a conduit comme par magie des milliers de gens dans la rue. Si l’on renvoyait à l’expéditeur, c’est-à-dire aux médias occidentaux, l’appellation utilisée pour désigner les mobilisations de 2011 en Afrique du Nord et au Moyen-Orient, nous dirions que le « Printemps français » qui, comme en Tunisie, a également commencé en hiver, n’est pas le fruit des réseaux sociaux, quand bien même l’appel à manifester est parti de là. C’est pour un ensemble de raisons liées à leurs positions sociales, aux différentes formes de socialisation, aux émotions ressenties ces dernières semaines, voire à certaines formes de rationalités, que les gens sont allés dans la rue. Durant la soirée du samedi 17 novembre 2018, j’ai regardé les informations en boucle. Quand les journalistes les interrogeaient, pas mal de personnes ne savaient pas si elles iraient manifester le lendemain mais on sentait qu’elles en avaient envie. Pas mal de monde, en allant dans la rue ce jour-là, a eu envie in situ de continuer. Le gouvernement a peut-être laissé faire, en tablant sur un éventuel essoufflement du mouvement, si auquel cas, il s’agirait d’une grave erreur. Le livre de Michel Dobry Sociologie des crises politiques, est très révélateur à ce sujet. Pour saisir ce qui se passe en France, il faut séparer le processus de l’événement en train de se dérouler et le résultat final, notamment tel qu’il est montré dans les médias. Il faut reconstituer, le 17 novembre, toutes les contingences, les aléas, les actions qui ont eu lieu et celles qui auraient pu advenir mais n’ont pas eu lieu !</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong> Une colère qui commence à gronder </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>HS :</strong> Justement, pourquoi les renseignements généraux en France n’ont rien vu venir ? Pensez-vous qu’ils ont été pris de court ? On a l’impression que personne n’a rien prévu, rien anticipé, y compris les maires et les députés.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>J.Z : </strong>En ce qui me concerne, je peux dire avoir anticipé quelque chose dans ma chronique parue dans le quotidien français Libération le 29 mai 2018, où j’indiquais que le gouvernement aurait dû écouter les gens qui sont sortis manifester dans la rue … Plus sérieusement, il y a des leaders de La France Insoumise, de même que des figures politiques de droite, comme Laurent Waucquiez, qui en avril 2018, déjà, n’hésitaient pas à parler de « fracture sociale », et qui accusaient le président Macron d’être « déconnecté de la vie quotidienne des Français ». Dès le début du mandat de l’actuel président, on sentait une colère qui a commencé à gronder, qui s’est amplifiée. Sous Sarkozy et Hollande, ce n’était pas pareil. Les gens pensaient qu’ils apporteraient des solutions, même s’ils ont été très vite déçus, avec Macron, dès le départ, on a senti la colère gronder.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>HS :</strong> Oui, mais ce mouvement a lieu aussi contre les institutions démocratiques, chose que nous ne pouvons pas occulter. Les gilets jaunes, c’est la « France profonde ». Mai 68, c’était la rive gauche contre la rive droite, incarnée par le faubourg saint honoré, par le Ministère de l’intérieur place Beauvais, l’Elysée. Même les manifestations de 1995 ou bien celles de 2006 contre le CPE (Contrat Première Embauche) en France n’étaient pas contre les institutions démocratiques. Avec les gilets jaunes, c’est différent. En même temps, le problème que vous soulevez est important. Cela voudrait dire que la démocratie représentative est peut-être obsolète ? Regardez en Allemagne, qui contrôle les grandes industries ? En Angleterre, avec le Brexit, la démocratie montre que le vote majoritaire du peuple a rejeté l’intégration européenne. Lors des élections, on voit que les taux d’abstention sont importants, même s’ils ne sont pas forcément en progression. L’ouvrier et l’employé ne sont plus représentés au Parlement. Une enquête montre que les ouvriers de la société française ne se retrouvent qu’à 0,2% dans l’hémicycle, il y a 27% d’employés mais seulement 4,58% des députés qui représentent leurs intérêts, les professions intermédiaires sont de 25, 7% mais représentées uniquement à hauteur de 6,3% dans l’Assemblée, cela veut dire que le peuple n’est pas représenté dans l’hémicycle et, comme vous dites, ils choisissent d’autres moyens de s’exprimer en démocratie que le vote, ils manifestent. Toutefois, je ne suis pas aussi optimiste que vous quant aux apports salutaires de ce genre de manifestations en démocratie. Ces manifestants ne préparent-ils pas la prise de pouvoir par l’extrême droite ? Regardez l’homme politique italien Matteo Salvini et consorts, ils soutiennent les gilets jaunes, sont associés avec des conservateurs polonais, des nationalistes allemands…Est-ce que ce mouvement n’est pas dangereux pour la démocratie, quand bien même comporte-t-il des revendications légitimes ? Vous pensez que les actes de violences que l’on a vus à Paris, les casseurs, les individus qui ont vandalisé l’Arc de Triomphe sur les Champs Elysées s’inscrivent dans un cadre démocratique ?</p>
<p class="rtecenter"><strong> PARTIE 2 </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong> « On veut un président des pauvres »</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>J.Z :</strong> Je n’ai jamais cautionné la violence, ni les actes de vandalisme lors des manifestations. Mais en même temps, réduire les actions des gilets jaunes à des actes de violence me semble discutable. Le 9 janvier sur BFM T.V, Brice Hortefeux, ancien ministre de l’Intérieur et député européen L.R (Les Républicains), a estimé à trois cents personnes le nombre des casseurs sur Paris lors de cette mobilisation du samedi et à trois milles les policiers encadrants. Cela montre que les émeutiers sont minoritaires parmi les manifestants, entre 8% et 10%, et qu’il y a, en revanche, des contingents policiers de plus en plus importants et utilisant de plus en plus fréquemment des armes que les autres pays européens n’utilisent pas dans les mêmes circonstances. Rappelons-nous ce qui s’est passé à Gênes, en 2001, lors des manifestations anti-G8, des militants altermondialistes ont été matraqués violemment, 307 personnes seront torturées, humiliées par la police dans la caserne de Bolzaneto. Dans le mouvement disparate des gilets jaunes, il y a des manifestants qui cherchent à en découdre avec la police, qui foncent sur les flics en balançant des objets, et on voit même la police reculer, comme lors de l’acte XIII le samedi 9 février 2019. Cela pose problème en démocratie. Mais de l’autre côté, il y a des gens qui sont mobilisés dans le cadre d’une action collective construite de manière collective, qui manifestent pour des causes qu’ils estiment justes, à commencer par le démantèlement des services publics, ces personnes sentent que les politiques ne font pas grand-chose pour lutter contre le chômage ou le renforcement des droits sociaux et privilégient les politiques d’austérité qui précarisent les populations. C’est pour ça qu’il faut s’entendre sur la nature des violences que l’on condamne.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>H.S :</strong> Taguer un des emblèmes de la République française ne change rien à la réalité. Ce type d’agissements n’empêchera en tout cas pas le démantèlement du service public et les violences policières. La destruction des pauvres sculptures symbolisant les événements de 1792 en France, même si ce sont uniquement des copies et non pas des œuvres d’art d’époque, renvoie à un vandalisme qui n’a rien de démocratique et de constructif.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>J.Z :</strong> On ne peut pas avoir une vue unilatérale sur ces événements composés de groupes sociaux disparates. D’un côté, force de reconnaître qu’il y a eu des actes de violence, des injures racistes, antisémites et homophobes parmi les gilets jaunes. Mais à côté de ces comportements, il y a des gens qui manifestent pacifiquement, classiquement je dirai, avec des pancartes, des slogans, avec des revendications légitimes.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>H.S :</strong> Selon vous, le mouvement des gilets jaunes ne serait pas aussi inédit et nouveau comme l le prétendent des observateurs ? Pourtant, nombreux sont ceux qui disent qu’ils n’ont jamais vu quelque chose de semblable.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"> <strong> « Solidarités dans les luttes antilibérales » </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>J.Z : </strong>Je reste très prudent sur les visions unilatérales qui qualifient ce mouvement d’inédit, de nouveau, et ne prennent pas en compte l’histoire sociale des mouvements de protestation en France. Nombre de médias ou d’universitaires interprètent les actions des gilets jaunes à partir de leurs propres préoccupations intellectuelles, leurs craintes politiques ou leurs attentes du moment. Les uns y voient la menace de l’extrême de droite, les autres une révolution sociale, d’autres, encore, se réjouissent d’y trouver des solidarités dans les luttes antilibérales. C’est oublier l’hétérogénéité, la diversité, la présence d’acteurs pluriels, parfois antagonistes, qui caractérisent les gilets jaunes. On y trouve des manifestants d’extrême droite, des antifascistes, des sympathisants de « la France insoumise », des retraités, des petits commerçants à tendance libérale réclamant moins de taxes, des personnes apolitiques, abstentionnistes qui, parfois, défilent le drapeau français à la main et chantant la Marseillaise. Le politiste français Philippe Corcuff n’a pas tort de parler de « confusiannisme », de l’effondrement de repères séparant la gauche et la droite, pour désigner les gilets jaunes, même si je ne suis pas convaincu qu’au final cela profite à l’extrême droite. Depuis novembre 2018, on voit des gens que l’on n’a pas l’habitude de voir dans les médias, qui ne se rattachent à aucune institution, aucune organisation partisane, aucune structure militante. C’est à ce niveau qu’on peut prétendre qu’il existe certaines nouveautés dans le mouvement. On y trouve la présence des personnes à besoins spécifiques, des étrangers, toutes ces personnes que l’on ne voit pas toujours dans les instances militantes traditionnelles. Mais, il y a aussi des revendications et des modus operandi très classiques dans ce mouvement. Les demandes de diminution des taxes, davantage de droits sociaux, l’augmentation du pouvoir d’achat, des retraites et des salaires. Ce sont des revendications que l’on a déjà entendues. Certains types de cortèges que l’on voit à Bastille, lieu authentiquement symbolique, et investi régulièrement lors des mouvements sociaux précédents, ne sont pas nouveaux. Il n’y a pas que de l’inédit dans ce mouvement composite que sont les gilets jaunes, il y a des choses qu’il faut situer sur les dix dernières années, sur les nouvelles formes de mobilisation qui émergent au début des années 2010, sur les transformations structurelles, sur le caractère apolitique de certaines mobilisations, notamment les manifestations de la Place de la République après les attentats de novembre 2015 en France.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>H.S : </strong>Lorsque Manuel Macron a été élu président, j’ai été frappé de constater avec quelle simplicité il a balayé les partis de gauche et de droite ! Où est l’esprit de Rocard, de Fabius ? Où est passé l’héritage de Jacques Chirac ? Macron a profité des déçus de la gauche, depuis les privatisations sous Mitterrand aux logiques sociaux-démocratiques de Hollande, et il a profité aussi des luttes fratricides entre Sarkzoy et Fillon qui ont plombé la droite, y compris lorsqu’elle était au pouvoir. Macron a été opportuniste, au début, il faisait penser à Kennedy, tout lui réussissait. Aujourd’hui, sa jeunesse et son enthousiasme ne sont plus un atout, il est décrit comme quelqu’un d’inexpérimenté, incapable de faire face à ce mouvement qui demande sa démission.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong> Faut-il en finir avec le suffrage universel ? </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>H.S :</strong> Flaubert écrivait au moment de la Commune : « Le premier remède serait d’en finir avec le suffrage universel, la honte de l’esprit humain ». Partagez-vous cette idée ? Pensez-vous qu’il faudrait privilégier les « référendums d’initiatives populaires », quand bien même ils proviennent de gens qui votent pour des partis d’extrême droite ou expriment leur antisémitisme publiquement, comme on l’a a vu le samedi 16 février vis-à-vis du philosophe Finkielkraut ? Hier, c’étaient les organisations partisanes qui pouvaient mobiliser les foules dans la rue, aujourd’hui, n’importe qui peut lancer des appels à manifester sur Facebook et amener du monde dans l’espace public. C’est le peuple contre les élites technocratiques que l’on voit dans ce « printemps français », et la démocratie est la grande perdante !</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>J.Z : </strong>Pour moi, ce serait plutôt la démocratie contre la gouvernance, et les grands perdants seront peut-être les technocrates s’ils ne prennent pas en compte le facteur humain.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>H. S :</strong> Ce mouvement est constitué de gens qui sont souvent invisibles. Le mouvement des gilets jaunes n’est pas de droite ou de gauche, même si l’extrême droite et l’extrême gauche essaient de le récupérer, l’extrême droite plus que l’extrême gauche. Mais, je pense aussi que ce mouvement est profondément réactionnaire, nationaliste. Pour moi, si l’on doit qualifier ce mouvement de révolutionnaire, dans ce cas il faut dire que c’est une révolution conservatrice. Est-ce que l’on retrouve dans d’autres pays des profils sociaux analogues aux gilets jaunes parmi ceux qui ont voté pour le Brexit en Angleterre, qui ont donné leurs voix à des clowns fascistes qui sont dans le gouvernement italien actuel, qui regardent Trump à la télé et votent pour lui en étant convaincus qu’il apportera la bonne solution, et voteront également pour lui lors des prochaines élections ?</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong> Notre époque est devenue tocquevillienne </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>J.Z :</strong> Aujourd’hui, les étudiants pensent peut-être plus à valider leurs crédits et intégrer un monde du travail difficile d’accès qu’à lire Marx, Herbert Marcuse ou Bourdieu et sortir dans la rue pour demander plus de justice sociale. C’est peut-être cela qui menace la démocratie aujourd’hui, cette absence de désirs utopiques pour créer un monde meilleur, cette acceptation de l’inacceptable. Au début du XIXème siècle, Tocqueville écrivait de manière résignée que la démocratie avait réussi à s’imposer et qu’il fallait composer désormais avec ce régime politique, que cela nous plaise ou pas. Aujourd’hui, notre époque est devenue tocquevillienne. C’est comme s’il fallait désormais s’accommoder des logiques de la gouvernance, c’est-à-dire des privatisations, du new management public, des logiques gestionnaires et de l’austérité, des décisions technocratiques de personnes qui passent leur journée à coller des posthites sur les murs des Ministères. Or, à mon avis, c’est cette gouvernance, plus que les mobilisations des gilets jaunes, qui menace la démocratie, et il ne faut surtout pas se dire qu’il faut inévitablement faire avec.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>H.S :</strong>Il y a beaucoup de gens qui n’ont pas confiance dans la politique, toute cette globalisation est trop compliquée pour eux. Les chiffres du commerce international, les données statistiques complexes, les courbes, les tableaux etc. qui expliquent pourquoi une usine ferme, quand bien même elle fait des bénéfices, sont compliqués à comprendre. C’est à ce niveau qu’il y a un fossé entre les politiques et les citoyens. Mais, ce n’est pas seulement les électeurs qui sont démissionnaires, ce sont aussi les politiciens. Dans un article publié dans Les échos, Cécile Cornudet évoque les propos amers de Gérard Collomb, ancien ministre de l’Intérieur, et Alain Juppé, tenté de quitter son fief bordelais pour entrer au Conseil constitutionnel. Ces derniers livreraient un « regard désespéré » sur la société et quitteraient pour l’un d’entre d’eux la scène politique nationale et pour l’autre la scène politique tout court. Ces gens-là vont être remplacés par qui, par des gilets jaunes qui ont cassé les statuts de l’Arc de Triomphe ou qui s’en sont pris violemment aux policiers, à l’instar de ce boxeur condamné récemment à de la prison ferme ? Ce qui me gêne, c’est que c’est aussi un mouvement sans leader, même si des gens, tels que Jérôme Rodrigues ou Eric Drouet, apparaissent dans les médias. Les autres pays qui voient ça ne comprennent pas ce qui se passe en France. Vu de l’étranger, le mouvement des gilets jaunes est appréhendé avec incompréhension et inquiétude.</p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-03-04T00:00:00+01:00">Monday, March 4, 2019</span>Helmut Sorgehttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/le-mouvement-des-gilets-jaunes-%25C2%25AB-un-printemps-fran%25C3%25A7ais-%25C2%25BB%22%3Eview%3C/a%3EL’ordre international se joue au Sud.http://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/l%25E2%2580%2599ordre-international-se-joue-au-sud%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : L’ordre international se joue au Sud.<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-28T00:00:00+01:00">Thursday, February 28, 2019</span><br />
Author : Youssef Tobi<br />
Related program : Geopolitics and International Relations<br />
Description : <p class="rtejustify">Le Caire semble avoir les moyens de ses ambitions. A la tête de l’Union africaine, depuis le 10 février 2019, dans le cadre de la présidence tournante de l’Organisation panafricaine, impliquée dans les- grandes questions régionales, et forte de la confiance d’alliés puissants, l’Egypte reprend un leadership dans la région, longtemps souhaité.</p>
<br />
<p class="rtejustify">Le Sommet, inédit, organisé entre l’Union européenne et la Ligue des Etats arabes, appelée communément la Ligue arabe, illustre ce renouveau de la diplomatie égyptienne</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Dans une région marquée par l’émergence de nouvelles grandes puissances, en premier lieu la Chine et la Russie, et leur concurrence avec les puissances occidentales traditionnelles, ce Sommet illustre aussi la nouvelle donne géopolitique et constitue potentiellement une prémisse d’une nouvelle doctrine européenne en termes d’influence et d’investissement. Aussi, à l’heure d’une confrontation entre les Etats-Unis et la Russie<sup>1</sup> et entre les Etats-Unis et la Chine<sup>2</sup> , l’Union européenne est appelée à clairement choisir son camp et il en vaut de même pour les pays arabes.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Ces données géopolitiques soulignent la place primordiale du Sud dans le rééquilibrage des relations internationales et son rôle nouveau, décomplexé et autonome. Dans un monde où il ne s’agit plus de pôle mais de multitude d’acteurs qui s’affrontent, les pays du Sud sont amenés à ne plus être une scène de conflits mais, plutôt, un acteur à part entière dans la redéfinition des rapports géopolitiques mondiaux.</p>
<p class="rtecenter"><strong>L’Egypte : futur hégémon régional</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Emmanuel Macron, le président français, et Mike Pompeo, Secrétaire d’Etat américain, ont tous deux visité le Caire durant ce dernier mois et ont montré des signes de confiance au régime égyptien. La confiance accordée au Président Al Sissi s’inscrit dans le cadre d’une donne géopolitique globale où la menace iranienne et le risque terroriste priment sur toute autre considération. Forte de ses récentes découvertes en mer méditerranée, et de son rapprochement avec Israël<sup>3</sup> , l’Egypte a tous les éléments pour imposer sa marque sur les relations internationales, tant au niveau régional que mondial. Sur la question des migrations, du terrorisme mais aussi du développement, l’Egypte peut constituer un exemple. L’Union européenne est consciente du potentiel de ce grand pays et y investit continuellement aux niveaux économique et militaire.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">La présidence égyptienne de l’Union africaine sera aussi l’occasion pour le Caire d’éprouver sa doctrine sur le continent et d’étendre son influence en Afrique de l’Est. En marge de l’-investiture du Président Al Sissi à la tête de l’UA, le gouvernement égyptien a publié un plan d'action visant à promouvoir les relations avec les pays africains. Il comprend un certain nombre de programmes de coopération bilatéraux et régionaux dans les domaines de la santé, du commerce, de l’investissement, de l’aviation et de la culture. L’Égypte accueillera, également, de nombreux événements panafricains, tels que le Forum sur l’investissement en Afrique, ainsi que plusieurs festivals culturels. Tant au niveau global que régional, l’Egypte dispose d’atouts non négligeables pour devenir une véritable puissance.</p>
<p class="rtecenter"><strong>Un nouveau « grand jeu » ? </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Le « grand jeu » est une expression géopolitique qui renvoie à la rivalité entre la Russie et le Royaume- Uni au XIXème siècle en Asie. Axé sur la question des ressources et de la domination territoriale, cette course à la suprématie se jouera tout au long du XIXème siècle jusqu’à aboutir, le 31 août 1907, à la Convention anglo-russe où les deux puissances délimitent leurs zones d’influence en Extrême Orient. Après la Seconde Guerre mondiale, les Etats-Unis redéfinissent à l’aube du XXI ème siècle le « grand jeu » à travers Zbigniew Brzeziński qui, en1997, en propose une autre version « le grand échiquier » où il s’agit de « contenir » la Chine, la Russie et l’Islamisme.Plus de 20 ans, plus tard, les Etats-Unis semblent capitaliser sur leur position géostratégique et se retirer, unilatéralement, de l’ensemble de la région Moyen-orientale, tandis que l’Union européenne semble reprendre la même idéologie que les Etats-Unis de Brzeziński. En effet, lors du Sommet du Caire, les officiels européens ont repris cette doctrine de « containement » de la Chine et de la Russie. Une source présente à ce Sommet n’a pas hésité à déclarer que « Nous ne voulons pas voir ce vide (laissé par les Etats-Unis, ndlr) mis à profit par la Russie et la Chine" <sup>4</sup>. Selon cette même source, les Européens voient le Sommet comme une chance de préserver leurs intérêts diplomatiques économiques et de sécurité.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Le Sommet Ligue arabe/Union européenne témoigne du fait que des puissances intermédiaires émergent au Sud et défendent une nouvelle approche des relations internationales, basée sur la priorité que celles-ci accordent à leur propre essor économique et social. La relation avec les grandes puissances se base, donc, sur un esprit de coopération mutuelle et d’intérêts communs, plutôt que dans un rapport de force. C’est dans ce sens que Sa Majesté le Roi Mohammed VI, dans son discours, dont lecture a été donnée par le Chef du gouvernement, considère « que ce sommet est une bonne opportunité pour rappeler ce fonds civilisationnel et humain et en faire une solide plate-forme vers une coopération effective, fondée sur une vision claire et des plans d’action réalistes, voués au service des intérêts communs et mutuellement bénéfiques. »<sup>5</sup></p>
<p class="rtejustify"> </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><sup>--------------</sup></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong><sup>1</sup></strong> <a href="https://www.20minutes.fr/monde/2458739-20190224-deploiement-missiles-pompeo-qualifie-menaces-poutine-fanfaronnade">https://www.20minutes.fr/monde/2458739-20190224-deploiement-missiles-pom...</a></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong><sup>2</sup></strong> <a href="https://www.huffpostmaghreb.com/entry/guerre-commerciale-chine-etats-unis-reprise-des-pourparlers-a-pekin_mg_5c652125e4b0233af9719095">https://www.huffpostmaghreb.com/entry/guerre-commerciale-chine-etats-uni...</a></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong><sup>3</sup></strong> Voir Policy Brief “ Egypte-Israel : Quand l’histoire sépare, les intérêts rapprochent » Policy Center for the New South. <a href="http://www.policycenter.ma/publications/egypt-israel-aiming-rapprochment">http://www.policycenter.ma/publications/egypt-israel-aiming-rapprochment</a></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><sup><strong>4</strong></sup><a href="https://www.france24.com/fr/20190224-egypte-ligue-arabe-union-europeenne-cooperation">https://www.france24.com/fr/20190224-egypte-ligue-arabe-union-europeenne...</a></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><sup><strong>5</strong></sup><a href="https://lematin.ma/express/2019/discours-sm-roi-mohammed-vi-premier-sommet-arabo-europe/311270.html">https://lematin.ma/express/2019/discours-sm-roi-mohammed-vi-premier-somm...</a> ;</p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-28T00:00:00+01:00">Thursday, February 28, 2019</span>Youssef Tobihttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/l%25E2%2580%2599ordre-international-se-joue-au-sud%22%3Eview%3C/a%3ELecture dans &quot;Le jihadisme, éléments de compréhension&quot; de Rachid Benlabbahhttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/lecture-dans-le-jihadisme-%25C3%25A9l%25C3%25A9ments-de-compr%25C3%25A9hension-de-rachid-benlabbah%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : Lecture dans &quot;Le jihadisme, éléments de compréhension&quot; de Rachid Benlabbah<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-27T00:00:00+01:00">Wednesday, February 27, 2019</span><br />
Author : Jean Zaganiaris, enseignant chercheur (HDR sociologie), EGE Rabat, UM6P.<br />
Related program : <br />
Description : <p class="rtejustify">Comment peut-on définir la présence d’’’Al Quaïda’’, de l’organisation ‘’Etat islamique’’ ou de ‘’Boko Haram’’ sur la scène internationale ? Quelles sont leurs idées, leurs actions, leurs stratégies, leurs modes de communication nationaux et transnationaux ? Ces organisations prolongent-elles un projet politico-religieux dont il faudrait chercher les racines au début des années vingt, avec la fondation des Frères musulmans en Egypte ou, bien, s’agit-il de phénomènes politiques nouveaux, rattachés aux contextes spécifiques des deux guerres en Irak et de la crise syrienne ?</p>
<br />
<p class="rtejustify rteindent1"><strong>Descente dans les univers des mouvances jihadistes</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Le travail d’investigation de Rachid Benlabbah, chercheur à l’Institut des Etudes Africaines de Rabat, s’inscrit dans le cadre de ces questionnements. Rompant avec les visions occidentalo-centrées qui folklorisent ces organisations, Rachid Benlabbah s’est immergé dans les univers sociaux des mouvances jihadistes et a tenté de comprendre, en suivant ces dernières sur les sites internet, en investiguant les différents supports médiatiques et en se rendant sur place, au Mali, quels sont les processus à partir desquels l’’’Etat islamique’’ a pu prendre le pouvoir et (auto)instauré le califat en 2014 ? Comment est-ce que cette organisation a pu contrôler, même provisoirement, un territoire de huit millions d’habitants, mettre en place une organisation étatique gérant l’éducation, l’habitat ou la santé des populations qui leur étaient rattachées ? Quelle était la production de savoirs religieux qu’elle a élaborée et à laquelle un certain nombre de personnes ont pu adhérer, allant jusqu’à combattre pour elle ?</p>
<p class="rtejustify">La première partie de l’ouvrage montre que le jihad -l’auteur rejette l’orthographe francophone « djihad », traduisant imparfaitement, selon lui, la sonorité arabe–, est à la fois un projet commun à toutes ces mouvances du XXème et XXIème siècles et un enjeu de lutte entre des groupes antagonistes, s’affrontant sur les interprétations doctrinales et les stratégies de mise en œuvre. Tout d’abord, le jihad est un projet commun puisant ses racines dans les jurisprudences islamiques, parfois contradictoires, de l’époque du Prophète, élaborées dans des contextes de guerres où la religion islamique et le califat étaient menacés. Toutefois, si tous les groupes jihadistes se rattachent à ce socle doctrinal, force est de constater qu’ils l’interprètent différemment. Chaque génération a procédé à une reconstruction doctrinale en fonction du contexte dans lequel elle évoluait, a accordé plus d’importance à certains éléments qu’à d’autres. Par exemple, l’organisation ‘’Etat islamique’’ lutte beaucoup plus contre « l’apostasie » et vise à restaurer le califat en terre d’Islam, alors qu’’’Al Quaïda’’ a pris pour cible les « mécréants » et les pays occidentaux.</p>
<p class="rtejustify rteindent1"><strong>Enjeux et rivalités</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">La deuxième partie de l’ouvrage présente l’analyse des rapports de force entre mouvements jihadistes. L’auteur prend ses distances avec des appellations telles que « terrorisme » ou « Islam politique », qui auraient parfois tendance à définir ces groupes jihadistes uniquement à partir de leurs luttes contre l’Occident, et s’intéresse aux enjeux, parfois violents, tant théoriques que pratiques, qui opposent ces différentes organisations. Dans « Genèse et structure du champ religieux », paru en 1971 dans la Revue française de sociologie, Pierre Bourdieu avait montré que l’un des enjeux de ce champ était « la lutte pour le monopole de l’exercice légitime du pouvoir religieux », notamment au niveau de l’imposition d’un discours reconnu par les croyants comme étant fidèle aux dogmes. Cette lutte implique pour les agents qui professent la foi, de chercher la consolidation du prestige symbolique de leur parole et, donc, de discréditer les concurrents qui prétendent apporter à leurs fidèles un autre type de « bon » discours religieux. C’est dans ce cadre analytique que se situent les rapports de force transnationaux entre Al Quaïda et l’organisation ‘’Etat islamique’’ décrits par Rachid Benlabbah, surtout à partir du moment où Aboubakr Al Baghdadi s’auto-proclame calife en 2014. Ce dernier exigeait la baya’a de toutes les autres mouvances jihadistes et avait proclamé apostats les membres d’Al Quaïda, des Frères musulmans et de Boko Haram qui refusèrent l’allégeance. En retour, des prédicateurs tels que le saoudien Abdellah Muhaysini, soutenant ‘’Al Quaïda’’, ont mené une bataille théorique pour décrédibiliser l’organisation ‘’Etat islamique’’, en rejetant les exécutions humaines commises et leur présentation doctrinale du jihad. Actuellement, la Lybie est l’un des lieux emblématiques d’affrontement entre jihadistes d’’’Al Quaïda’’ et de l’’’Etat islamique’’.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">La troisième partie de l’ouvrage traite de la propagande jihadiste sur les réseaux sociaux, notamment à travers les images d’autodafés humains, et des conflits rhétoriques, par sites internet interposés, entre des cybers imams appartenant à des camps antagonistes. Comme nous l’a dit l’auteur récemment, la victoire pencherait actuellement beaucoup plus pour ‘’Al Quaïda’’. Depuis ses défaites militaires, l’organisation ‘’Etat Islamique’’ ne se pense plus comme un califat mais comme une jamaâ. Dans un contexte où Trump menace de libérer 800 jihadistes de l’’’Etat islamique’’ capturés par l’armée américaine si les pays européens ne les récupèrent pas chez eux, on peut se demander où sont passés les autres milliers de membres attachés à cette mouvance ? Si certains ont rejoint ‘’Al Quaïda’’ en Afghanistan ou au Yémen, Rachid Benlabbah se demande si l’on peut également en trouver au Sahel.</p>
<p class="rtejustify rteindent1"><strong>Etudier le jihadisme à partir des sciences sociales </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">La force de l’ouvrage est d’avoir apporté des éléments d’analyse sur les mouvances jihadistes, en laissant de côté les approches en termes d’enjeux sécuritaires et en privilégiant l’étude des pratiques sociales. Toutefois, certains écarts à la neutralité axiologique opérés par Rachid Benlabbah, notamment lorsqu’il qualifie les mouvements jihadistes de « totalitaires », ou bien lorsqu’il corrige leur production doctrinale à partir de sa propre érudition religieuse (que nous ne remettons d’ailleurs pas en cause), nous semblent sujets à débat. D’une part, le terme « totalitarisme », comme l’a montré Enzo Traverso dans son livre Le totalitarisme, le vingtième siècle en débat (Points Seuil, 2001), renvoie à des régimes politiques contextuellement situés (fascisme, nazisme, stalinisme) et son usage pour définir des réalités « non occidentales » risque de dénaturer les pratiques sociales des acteurs étudiés et amener l’analyse vers les représentations orientalistes rejetées par l’auteur. D’autre part, si l’on s’inscrit dans une démarche des sciences sociales, l’enjeu est, selon nous, non pas de démontrer herméneutiquement quelles sont les erreurs commises par l’’’Etat islamique’’ dans son rapport aux textes religieux mais plutôt, à l’instar de ce que font les sociologues pragmatiques à partir de Max Weber, de comprendre en situation les usages sociaux que les acteurs jihadistes font des sources. Il ne s’agit pas de savoir si les jihadistes ont tort ou raison d’interpréter ainsi tel ou tel hadith mais de saisir les logiques et le sens qu’ils donnent à leurs pratiques lorsqu’ils produisent des savoirs religieux. Rachid Belabbah laisse également de côté la question des rapports entre les mouvances jihadistes et la mondialisation effrénée que nous connaissons actuellement. Or, comme l’a montré récemment Alain Bertho dans Les enfants du chaos, essai sur le temps des martyrs (La Découverte, 2016), même si des organisations telles que l’’’Etat islamique’’ ne comprennent pas uniquement dans leurs rangs les laissés-pour-compte du néolibéralisme, elles ont leur genèse dans des contextes marqués par des logiques impérialistes que l’on gagnerait à intégrer davantage dans l’analyse. Ces remarques n’enlèvent bien entendu rien à la qualité de cet ouvrage innovant et rigoureux, qui a le mérite d’apporter de nouveaux objets d’investigation à des terrains parfois galvaudés et abordés de manière non empirique.</p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-27T00:00:00+01:00">Wednesday, February 27, 2019</span>Jean Zaganiaris, enseignant chercheur (HDR sociologie), EGE Rabat, UM6P.http://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/lecture-dans-le-jihadisme-%25C3%25A9l%25C3%25A9ments-de-compr%25C3%25A9hension-de-rachid-benlabbah%22%3Eview%3C/a%3EHow Civil Society at Davos is making sure no one gets left behindhttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/how-civil-society-davos-making-sure-no-one-gets-left-behind%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : How Civil Society at Davos is making sure no one gets left behind<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-26T00:00:00+01:00">Tuesday, February 26, 2019</span><br />
Author : Lisa Ventura , Acting Head of Civil Society Communities, World Economic Forum<br />
Related program : Geopolitics and International Relations<br />
Description : <p class="rtejustify">In 2019, the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos convened under the theme of “Globalization 4.0”, highlighting the need for a renewed global governance system that will leave no one behind. The perspectives of civil society were crucial to make the meeting meaningful and inclusive. My role as Acting Head of Civil Society Communities is to ensure leaders from NGOs, unions, faith-based organizations and religious groups leverage the Forum platform to advocate for sustainable and diverse societies and strengthen their role in public-private cooperation as well as come prepared with a crisp message to highlight societal issues on the global agenda.</p>
<br />
<p class="rtejustify">In the past, their participation resulted in strong shifts in policy-making and incubation of new impactful initiatives such as United for News, an initiative working to transform the media and ensure citizens benefit from high-quality, local news and information. I wanted to highlight the moments that made me proud to work with such a vibrant community and share the stories that are in my eyes the most impactful:</p>
<p class="rtejustify rteindent2">1) As we are taking stock of the rise of the #MeToo movement, I was very touched to see Dr Denis Mukwege, Nobel Peace Laureate 2018, share his outstanding fight against the use of rape as a weapon of war. Violence against women needs to be addressed by breaking the silence around it. Data shows that less than 40 per cent of the women who experience violence seek help<sup>1</sup> . As I was listening to Dr Mukwege, I could only hope that this figure would radically increase and that more women could find the courage and strength to stand up to seek justice. Dr Mukwege campaigned fiercely against the use of rape as a weapon a war throughout his career and in Davos. By integrating psychological support, legal assistance and socio-economic support in existing treatment in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, he transformed the way the world understands the impact of violence against women.</p>
<p class="rtejustify rteindent2">2) In the last years, Davos enabled many to share their vision of a tech-enabled future. This year I felt there was a stronger gloomy nuance to technological advances. This is vital as we see increasingly the threat that technology can pose on human rights. Let’s look at Artificial Intelligence and its subset Machine Learning. Its application for credit ratings or screening job applicants reinforces structural bias and discrimination against certain groups, often of the most vulnerable people in society. Deliberate or not, those harms lead to violations of human rights and a widening inequality gap among populations. I was reassured to hear increasingly a narrative that encourages to apply a human rights lens to scrutinize emerging technology and a greater awareness that regulating technology will lead to transparency, responsiveness, and enforcement. NetHope is a great example of a membership-based NGO who is pioneering innovation in the social sector and is constantly challenging the way civil society approaches technology by growing the internal capacity of its members through training and designing and implementing technology-enabled responses that improve their work.</p>
<p class="rtejustify rteindent2">3) Gary Haugen, Chief Executive Officer, International Justice Mission, said: “Breakthrough happens when a corporation stands up and says, ‘We’re not perfect. We’re working on it, but we have a problem.’ From there, we can work together to end modern slavery.” According to a report from the International Labour Office (ILO)<sup>2</sup> , in 2016, there were likely to be more than 40.3 million men, women, and children who were being forced to work against their will under threat or who were living in a forced marriage that they had not agreed to. I am very passionate about decent labour and I was very hopeful to see a renewed and sincere commitment from large corporations to address issues of modern slavery and find more data-driven approaches in monitoring their supply chains. Indeed, greater use of data will help align existing efforts and create more robust legislation.</p>
<p class="rtejustify rteindent2">4) Last, but not least, after many consultations and interviews, the launch of the Preparing Civil Society for the Fourth Industrial Revolution initiative, illustrates how civil society is aware that digital transformations will disrupt its raison d’être and there is a strong need for change. Now leaders in this sector are keen to accelerate responsible tech practices and future readiness for social good including - digital infrastructure and inclusion in the governance of emerging technologies, - accountability, transparency, fairness, and trust in emerging technologies for everyone. I hope to see more participation from civil society actors in technology governance in the future as it is the only way to maximize the benefits of technology for all.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">-----------------------------</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><sup>1</sup> United Nations Economic and Social Affairs (2015). The World’s Women 2015, Trends and Statistics, p. 159.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><sup>2</sup> International Labour Office (ILO) (2017). Global Estimates of Modern Slavery: forced labour and forced marriage, p.9.</p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-26T00:00:00+01:00">Tuesday, February 26, 2019</span>Lisa Ventura , Acting Head of Civil Society Communities, World Economic Forumhttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/how-civil-society-davos-making-sure-no-one-gets-left-behind%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E“It Is Unlikely That North Korea Will Give Up Its Nuclear Weapons”http://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/%25E2%2580%259Cit-unlikely-north-korea-will-give-its-nuclear-weapons%25E2%2580%259D%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : “It Is Unlikely That North Korea Will Give Up Its Nuclear Weapons”<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-21T00:00:00+01:00">Thursday, February 21, 2019</span><br />
Author : Helmut Sorge<br />
Related program : Geopolitics and International Relations<br />
Description : <p class="rtejustify">They just seemed like dragonflies, oversized species, menacing and reassuring at the same time. The rotor blades of the helicopters were reflecting the rays of the sun, unusually hot at these early morning hours. Graham Martin, the grey-haired US ambassador, was hurrying by foot to his residence a couple hundred yards away. He needed to get his black poodle, Nitnoy, and his suitcase. Washington had ordered the total evacuation of Saigon; the “Operation Frequent Wind” would try to save all remaining American citizens and some thousand allies, former generals, colonels, and CIA operatives. Leaving the soldiers, the hundreds of thousands of loyal allies, to be executed or forced to repent in Communist reeducation camps. The ambassador, “code two,” would be flown off the helipad, located on top of his six-floor embassy on Gia Long Street. The evacuation of Saigon was nothing less than the escape from surrender. North Vietnamese troops were encircling the capital of South Vietnam, Vietcong guerrillas already had infiltrated the town. The runway of Tan Son Nhat airport was destroyed. During the last hours, which ended 12 years of war, another four marines were KIA (Killed In Action) bringing the total loss of US troops to 56 559.</p>
<br />
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>A Poodle on the Leach, Cash in Trousers </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">April 29, 1975, turned into both a nightmare and a historical date. Thousands were trying to force their way into the American embassy. The roof symbolized the gates to heaven and salvation. US helicopters would pick up, a dozen or two at a time, CIA torturers, weapon dealers, priests, diplomats, war reporters, Vietnamese generals in civilian clothes and some in uniform; including a barman of the hotel “Caravelle,” where war reporters exchanged horror stories in the Rooftop bar and ordered Pernod Ricard without water. Towards the end of the war, some writers never left the hotel, from the bar stools upstairs, during the late hours, they could see the front line, tracers, and explosions. The better paid “hacks” preferred to bed at the Continental on Dong Khoi street, where Graham Greene was a long-term guest in room 214; he wrote his bestseller The Quiet American in this historic hotel. During the 18-hour evacuation operation, 81 helicopters flew 1373 Americans and 5595 Vietnamese out of the city. At </p>
<p class="rtejustify">some of the departure points, panicked Vietnamese tried to hold onto the giant Jolly Green helicopter skids, just long enough to reach the boats of the American fleet anchored off the coast. After minutes hanging between heaven and hell, the devil grabbed them; when Vietnamese evacuees were ordered to leave their bags behind, they opened their luggage and stuffed bundles of cash and dollars under their shirts or into their clothes - foundation for their start in freedom. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">The American ambassador hurried back to his embassy, where desperate Vietnamese still tried to scale the 15-feet concrete wall, being pushed back by US troops, who had fixed bayonets onto their rifles. If the Vietnamese did not let go of the wall, the soldiers smashed their fingers with the rifle butts. Bodyguards carried Mr. Martin’s bag, one of the armed security officers pulled his leashed poodle through the crowds. The personal cook of the ambassador followed his master like glue to his shirt, ready to escape to America, even without a shirt to change. A perfect scene for Hollywood, driven into the absurd by a repeated patriotic hit “Ballad of the Green Berets,” on an American military Radio network station; somewhere in the streets nearby, a schmaltz song written and sang by a staff sergeant named Barry Sadler a decade before the great American escape from Saigon. The melancholic voice of the Vietnam veteran was loud enough to drown out the deadly noise of battle advancing, louder, ever more menacing, towards the embassy. A man on a bicycle hurled a grenade into the crowd waiting in front of the gates, which, for some of those planning to escape, would end in purgatory, hell on earth. No hope for an ambulance to arrive, the only thing we had to fear was, incoming rockets, screams of pain, part of life in this world as barking dogs, and unlimited horror -camouflaged by revenge, more torture, and executions. This was the end, the ends of a nation, surrender without surrendering. A few hours to go, fading away, the stars, and stripes folded into a suitcase. The flower markets were closed, the pretty girls preparing bouquets of roses, disappeared, trying to find a place to hide. No more music. Tear gas drowned the perfume lingering in the good old days like clouds over the market. Barry Sadler survived Vietnam, and shot himself accidentally in Guatemala in his head, forever quadriplegic, confined to a hospital bed with brain damage. And then he died. . . </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>A Crime Against Humanity </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Once again, if evidence was still needed after thousands of years of human folly, war is mad. Whatever the value of a medal, the glory is buried by a psychopathic syndrome, a loss of dignity and human spirit. Bombs and bullets are not demonstrating military might, but a loss of reason, logic, and hope. A war can be just the defenses of our values: democracy, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, voting, organizing labor unions, traveling, creating art, and protesting… Vietnam was not such a war; Vietnam was a crime, a crime against humanity. The loss of the American spirit in the self-righteous conviction that, communism should be stopped in Indochina. It was not a dictator, who deployed the first soldiers in the early 1960s to the jungles of Vietnam; no, it was a young President, who, for many of his supporters, symbolized the new spirit of America, its resurrection. John F. Kennedy had no time to prove that he is a genius. Killed at age 55 by a sniper -a former marine-, and not in the swamp in a distant land, but in Dallas, Texas, a heartland of America. He did not witness how his former Vice President, now his replacement, Lyndon B. Johnson, sent hundreds of thousands into battle, often not knowing why they were fighting. Suffocated by fear, confronting a peasant army, often moving into battle through hand dug tunnels and advancing with a bag of rice with their feet covered by sandals made of bamboo. Students in Berlin, London and Paris, marched for the Vietcong, whose spirit, whose battle against the oppressors, they admired. They burned the stars and stripes, the symbol of those who had sacrificed their lives to liberate France from Nazi occupation. </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>Attempting to Avoid Another War </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">In 1968, Paris was experiencing a revolt by students, supported by some workers, the streets were filled with kids -often part of the bourgeoisie-, carrying flags showing the portrait of Che Guevara. They were chanting the name of Ho Chi Minh, the political symbol of Vietnam’s war of survival against Washington, marching with red flags, roaring ho, ho, ho, Ho Chi Minh, without really knowing about his hardship in New York, London and Paris -stations of a rebel against colonialism. Meanwhile, the US defoliated the jungles of South East Asia with chemicals, covered villages of innocent peasants with napalm or burned them --in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. Not only did </p>
<p class="rtejustify">America lost its soul but it also lost its moral, betrayed its Christian principles, and its Christ almighty -covered by tears and blood. Veterans returned home as drug addicts, emotional and physical cripples. Rejected by those who avoided the war, like Donald Trump, the President -who will visit the former enemy by the end of this month the capital of Hanoi- attempting to avoid another war, this time nuclear. And once again the threat is Asian (North Korea). </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>“Sleep Well Tonight” </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">During their historic summit in June of last year in Singapore, Trump had tried to convince Kim Jong Un, the dictator of North Korea, to denuclearize his nation, and trust the US and its promises. In exchange for destroying his nuclear armament -possibly 20-to-60 bombs-, and his intercontinental missiles, apparently able to reach the continental United States, Washington would assist Pyongyang to blossom into paradise: including launching some McDonald’s restaurants and a few Starbucks coffee shops; and why not a North Korean version of the Mickey Mouse. A day after meeting Kim Jong Un in Singapore, the President tweeted, after more than five hours of talking to the dictator: @realDonaldTrump. <em>“There is no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea. Meeting with Kim Jong Un was an interesting and very positive experience. North Korea has great potential for the future.” Twitter,<a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006837823469735936" target="_blank"> Jun 13, 2018</a>, 10:56 AM</em> </p>
<p class="rtejustify">No further mention of a “complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization,” (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/06/13/pompeo-was-grilled-by-reporters-about-north-koreas-nukes-this-was-his-testy-response/?noredirect=on&amp;utm_term=.44b5b4d982a7" target="_blank">Taylor, The Washington Post, 2018</a>) no pressure on Pyongyang by the Trump administration to dismantle its nuclear armament before the US would be willing to discuss the official ending of the Korean War, and/or the lifting of sanctions. No word in the final agreement in Singapore, of how the promised “firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” (<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-president-donald-j-trump-united-states-america-chairman-kim-jong-un-democratic-peoples-republic-korea-singapore-summit/" target="_blank">White House</a>, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-president-donald-j-trump-united-states-america-chairman-kim-jong-un-democratic-peoples-republic-korea-singapore-summit/" target="_blank">June 2018</a>) by Mr. Kim would be achieved. The dictator did not hand any inventory to Washington detailing nuclear bombs, short, medium or intercontinental missiles. Yet, Trump, who had fallen “in love” with the dictator -one of the worse human rights abusers on the planet- insisted on Twitter: <em>@realDonaldTrump. “Before taking office, people were assuming that we were going to war with North Korea. President Obama aid that North Korea was our biggest and most dangerous problem. No longer—sleep well tonigh</em>t.” Twitter,<a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006839007492308992" target="_blank"> Jun 13, 2018,</a> 11:01 AM </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Indeed, North Korea, did not -for more than 400 days- test any missiles, any nuclear bombs; yet, the global secret service community confirms that Pyongyang is still producing nuclear fuel, weapons, and missiles. Worse still, a confidential report, submitted to a 15-member UN Security Council Sanctions Committee, confirms that the sanction experts “found evidence of a consistent trend on the part of the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) to disperse its assembly, storage and testing locations.” Mr. Trump noticed the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/02/05/world/asia/ap-un-united-nations-north-korea-sanctions-violations.html" target="_blank">New York Times</a>, appeared to be taken a victory lap even before the nuclear threat from North Korea “is far from over.” Just last month, a previously secret North Korean missile base was detected by a civilian satellite in “Sino-ri, 132 miles north of the demilitarized Zone. A reminder of how sprawling and hidden the country’s nuclear program is, and how challenging any sort of outside inspections regime might be to carry out” (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/22/opinion/second-north-korea-summit-trump.html" target="_blank">New York Times, 2019</a>). The Sino-ri site -one of 20 North Korea has failed to declare- houses medium range “Nodong” missiles that could be used in attacks on South Korea, Japan, and the US territory of Guam. Victor Cha, professor of government at Georgetown University and senior advisor at the “Center for Strategic and International Studies,” who had been proposed as ambassador to South Korea by Trump: “The North Korean are not going to negotiate over things they don t disclose. It looks like they are playing games. They are still going to have all this operational capability even if they destroy their disclosed nuclear facilities” (<a href="https://outlook.office.com/mail/inbox/id/AAQkAGM0ZmJlODMzLTUyNzItNDk0Mi04Y2VmLWZhMTc5Yjk0MGZlNwAQANOq3DzkjApCsqD5UWiCzwE%3D/sxs/AAMkAGM0ZmJlODMzLTUyNzItNDk0Mi04Y2VmLWZhMTc5Yjk0MGZlNwBGAAAAAADNdPAaQBZ0TqpVBaXqFPHhBwDSIrX9ityBRpQASinTAhGGAAAAAAEMAADSIrX9ityBRpQASinTAhGGAABQGOGyAAABEgAQAEgO9XvYrjVGubo5pw%2BhmnE%3D" target="_blank">Cha, CSIS, 2019</a>).</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Other US presidents have tried to entice Mr. Kim to a deal. He is, what veterans of the mafia would characterize, a “shifter” or a “snide,” forever scheming, duplicitous, and double-dealing, a man qualified to turn into a real estate developer on Manhattan any day, two-faced as Trump, artful, tricky. No surprise, that they have fallen in love. Mr. Kim will continue to insist that all joint military training between Seoul and Washington will be halted, that American nuclear and military capability within easy reach of the north should be withdrawn, and that a peace treaty ending the Korean war, will be completed. In his New Year’s address, Mr. Kim reiterated that international sanctions must be lifted before North Korea will give up a single weapon, dismantle a single missile site or produce nuclear material. “If the US does not keep its promises and continues with sanctions and pressure against North Korea,” then we, too, have no choice but to seek a new path for our countries sovereignty” (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/01/world/asia/kim-trump-nuclear.html" target="_blank">Sanger, New York Times, 2019</a>). </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>“A Direct Threat Towards the United States”</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">The recently released 42 pages “<a href="https://www.odni.gov/index.php/newsroom/congressional-testimonies/item/1947-statement-for-the-record-worldwide-threat-assessment-of-the-us-intelligence-community" target="_blank">Worldwide Threat Assessment</a>” assembled by various American intelligence agencies, confirms the assessment of the “CSIS-expert,” that North Korea is unlikely to give up its nuclear stockpiles, because, as Dan Coats -the National Intelligence Director- declared in a Senate testimony: “it views nuclear weapons as critical to regime survival.” Coats cited “some activity that is inconsistent with full denuclearization,” adding that most of what North Korea is dismantling is “reversible.” The report insists in its conclusion that North Korea “will seek to retain its WMD capability (Weapons of Mass Destruction) and is unlikely to completely give up its nuclear weapons and production capability.” Pyongyang is “working to ensure its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities cannot be destroyed by military strikes” (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-sanctions-un/north-korea-protecting-nuclear-missiles-un-monitors-say-ahead-of-summit-talks-idUSKCN1PU03G" target="_blank">Nichols, Brunnstrom, Reuters, 2019</a>). At the congressional hearing in Washington, the CIA director Gina Haspel, as Coats, a Trump chosen appointee said the government in Pyongyang is “committed to developing a long-range nuclear-armed missile that would pose a direct threat to the United States” (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com" target="_blank">The Washington Post, 2018</a>). Even Trump -willing to exaggerate whenever overacting could help his narcissistic sanctimoniousness- accepted his advisors’ decision to extend the “national emergency” provision, which confirmed the “existence and risk of proliferation of weapons-useable fissile material on the Korean Peninsula and the actions and policies of the government of North Korea” (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44584957" target="_blank">BBC, 2018</a>). These “continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States” (<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/text-notice-continuation-national-emergency-respect-serious-human-rights-abuse-corruption/" target="_blank">White House, 2018</a>).</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>The Graveyard of Military Strategists </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">In other words, two years into his presidency, and more than six months after his summit meeting with Kim Jong Un, the<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/01/world/asia/kim-trump-nuclear.html" target="_blank"> New York Times</a> stated in early January: “Mr. Trump finds himself essentially back where he was at the beginning in achieving the ambitious goal of getting Mr. Kim to relinquish his nuclear arsenal.” The recent meeting at the White House with North Korea’s former Intelligence chief, general Kim Yong-Chol -now the governments lead nuclear negotiator- was “incredible,” Trump reported, and “tremendous progress” was made. No more threats from Trump, who just a year ago was threatening that Washington would have to move to “phase two,” which could be “very, very unfortunate for the world,” if sanctions against Pyongyang would not work, and apparently they have only a limited success (since even a Rolls Royce “Phantom” was sighted the other day in the capital.) Two weeks later, nothing changed, except the political fortunes at home, and Trump was willing to meet the dictator in person -no concessions asked. Georgetown professor Victor Cha publicly asked: “Does the US have a strategy for North Korea or are these twists and turns merely the whims of a temperamental President” (<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-korea/2018-04-01/right-way-coerce-north-korea" target="_blank">Cha, Katz, Foreign Affairs, 2018</a>).</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Donald Trump can hardly risk leaving Hanoi, the graveyard of many American military strategists, to return to Washington without a credible result—Seoul suggested that the dismantling of the North’s main Yongbyon nuclear complex could encourage Washington to reciprocate by formally ending the 1950-53 Korean War and setting up a liaison office. Other experts suggested constraining, initially, instead of eliminating, the North Korean nuclear ambitions. Didn’t Pyongyang demonstrate a surprising finesse, by not testing any missiles and nuclear bombs anymore? The voluntary freeze kept the North Koreans, thus far, from solving the last physics problems in delivering a nuclear weapon across the Pacific, able to target American cities. “When zero weapons is not on the table, then anything less than 100 nuclear weapons seems better than the alternative,” argues Robert S. Litwak, author of “Preventing North Korea’s Nuclear breakout” and director of “International Security Studies” at the “Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars” in Washington. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Possibly, Trump would not dare to attempt with North Korea the solution he opposed vehemently in the Iran nuclear treaty–to merely constrain a nuclear capability, rather than eliminating it. The difference between Iran and North Korea is obvious: Pyongyang controls 20 to 60 nuclear-armed weapons, Tehran controls none. “Mr. Trump must decide whether it is better to constrain the growth or stick with the position he defended so hotly as a presidential candidate in his first year in office” (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/01/world/asia/kim-trump-nuclear.html" target="_blank">Sanger, New York Times, 2019</a>). In his eagerness for a diplomatic breakthrough, celebrated as victory of the smooth, experienced negotiator (“I know when somebody wants to deal, and I know when somebody does not. A lot of politicians do not. That is not their thing, but it is my thing.”) In a time of domestic turmoil and chaos, Donald Trump may agree to a deal under which the North freezes its nuclear activities and dismantles its intercontinental ballistic missiles, while leaving to Mr Kim, his short range and medium range rockets, even if they are able to reach Japan or Seoul. </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>Lady Ace 09 </strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Undoubtedly, Washington has moved from extreme demands and rigid time frames. The White House has appointed a moderate, experienced diplomat to deal as special representative for North Korea, Stephen Biegun, who has been in and out of Pyongyang these days. Apparently, Trump’s man has appeased the North Koreans somehow, by not demanding that Washington would need to receive a complete list of the nuclear inventory of North Korea prior to any negotiations. Now the complete documentation must be delivered “before the process of denuclearization can be final.” In other words, Pyongyang is required to hand the inventory on Weapons of Mass Destructions and missile programs to an international commission, before North Korea ends its nuclear activities forever—a process which could take years. Another, less likely option is that Trump accepts North Korea as a nuclear nation, equally as India’s, Pakistan’s or Israel’s. Capitulating to Mr Kim on this issue would be difficult for hardliners in the Trump administration to accept and foremost for his National Security advisor John R. Bolton (who excoriated past administrations for making concessions ahead of disarmament.) It would be an “anathema,” a monstrosity, as the New York Times realizes, a repugnant decision, which would turn the President into a pariah. After all said, it is just speculation. But with this president, we know by now, that all is possible. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Who knows, he may ask the Vietnamese hosts, to let him visit the residential Ba Dinh district, where a B52 wreckage is centering the small Huu Tiep lake, or he could see how his critic, Senator John McCain, suffered as prisoner of war in the Hoa Lo prison, known by its survivors as the “Hanoi Hilton.” Or he could reserve a short stroll to the Vietnam Army museum, where the former enemy is showing its peoples’ photos, uniforms and weapons, and some of the pieces captured by heroic soldiers in Saigon, on that fateful 29 April 1975, when US troops, their allies and American civilians -about 60 000 people- escaped Saigon and its suburbs, by fisher boats, canoe, landing crafts, and helicopters. Ambassador Graham Martin was ordered by the White House to evacuate at the latest at 3.45 pm. He delayed his departure, again and again, until the Situation Room of the White House, on order from Henry Kissinger, telephoned: “Load only Americans from now on.” When finally, the chopper that lifted the ambassador, some war correspondents, diplomats and, yes, the black poodle Nitnoy, took off the roof - correspondent Loren Jenkins estimated another few thousand Vietnamese waiting in and around the embassy for more helicopters to arrive, bringing them to freedom—no more choppers landed. Goodbye Vietnam. All American helicopters, the last to fly, raced towards the American fleet off the coast, at 5.22 hrs. The marine detachment was the last mean to escape. They did not forget to close the door leading to the roof. They probably threw the key into the water, once they were high over the dark Saigon River, the same route the helicopter of the ambassador was taking, codename Lady Ace O9. “A bright yellow flare arched up and hung in the air,” noted reporter Jenkins (<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/last-helicopter-evacuating-saigon-321254" target="_blank">Newsweek, 2015</a>). Off to the east, the Long Binh ammunition dump was exploding. Red fireballs shot high into the night. Out of the rear bay, I saw the lights of Saigon distantly—for the last time.”</p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-21T00:00:00+01:00">Thursday, February 21, 2019</span>Helmut Sorgehttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/%25E2%2580%259Cit-unlikely-north-korea-will-give-its-nuclear-weapons%25E2%2580%259D%22%3Eview%3C/a%3EAs Nigeria goes to the pollshttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/nigeria-goes-polls%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : As Nigeria goes to the polls<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-14T00:00:00+01:00">Thursday, February 14, 2019</span><br />
Author : Ibraheem Sanusi<br />
Related program : Geopolitics and International Relations<br />
Description : <p class="rtejustify"><strong><em>The author of this blog, Ibraheem Sanusi, is an alumnus of the 2018 Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders program.</em></strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Over <a href="https://www.inecnigeria.org/" target="_blank">84 million Nigerians</a> are expected to participate in the upcoming general elections, the fifth election since the country returned to democratic rule in 1999. The Presidential and National Assembly as well as the Governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections scheduled for the 16th of February and the 2nd of March respectively, <a href="https://www.yiaga.org/shaping-the-narrative-of-nigerias-2019-elections-with-big-data-itodo-samson/" target="_blank">have attracted 23,316 candidates eyeing the 1,558 legislative seats and executive offices</a>. By far, the spotlight is on the Presidential contest of 73 candidates as announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Nigeria’s Electoral Management body. Nonetheless, based on Nigeria’s Federal System, keen Governorship contests will be expected in about 30 States across the country. </p>
<br />
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>Presidential Battle Royale</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">In 2015 when Nigerians went to polls, it was mainly a referendum on the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-32136295" target="_blank">perceived lackluster performance</a> of the then President, Goodluck Jonathan. Security challenges, pervasive corruption and increasing frustration of the citizens weary of the arrogance of the then ruling party, provided a fertile ground for the coalition that eventually swept the Goodluck Administration out of office, and ushered in the Buhari Administration. To put it into context, the All Progressives Congress (APC) party that won the presidential elections in 2015, as well as majority in both the senate and House of Representatives, did not even exist in 2011. Four years later, opinions are sharply divided on the performance of President Muhammadu Buhari. For instance, the Buhari Administration campaigned on the basis of three cardinal programmes; <a href="https://punchng.com/i-was-elected-to-fight-corruption-buhari/" target="_blank">security, economy, and anti-corruption</a>. Opposition parties and many political analysts argue that the Buhari Government has been quite slow and uninspiring. However, supporters of the ruling party – All Progressives Congress (APC) – disagree. They argue that the President inherited 16 years of ‘rudderless’ leadership of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and thus require time to make significant changes. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Dissimilar of 2015, when there was a clear bifurcation in the voting pattern between the North and South, the chances of a landslide victory for any of the leading candidate in the upcoming elections, are narrow. Traditionally, President Buhari’s base has been in the North West and North East region of the country. However, this time, he will be battling to win the North West region due to key defections by loyalists in Kano and Sokoto States coupled by the divided opinion on his general performance across the country. Further, facing off with an opposition candidate from the North East, the region will be a major battleground for votes. The North Central region that has been plagued <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/nigeria/252-herders-against-farmers-nigerias-expanding-deadly-conflict" target="_blank">with farmers and pastoralists crisis</a>, presents another stirring scenario on how the ruling party will fare in these elections. The other major battleground will be the South West region where both the ruling APC and the opposition PDP have a history of fierce contest. The opposition is optimistic it will maintain its hold on the South East and South South regions, but the ruling party argues with great conviction, that its performance in the two regions will earn it more votes in the polls. </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>Major Campaign Issues</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Addressing the security scourge, boosting the economic fortunes, and fighting corruption, remain top campaign promises for the 2019 elections. The Buhari administration argues that it has made progress in addressing the Boko Haram and Niger Delta crisis. However, political analysts have queried the sluggish response of the administration to the farmers and pastoralists crisis which has resulted in <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2018/12/17/677482549/herders-vs-farmers-a-deadly-year-in-nigeria" target="_blank">thousands of deaths</a> in the middle belt area of Nigeria. On the economy front, several years of inadequate investment in the diversification of the Nigerian economy and the initial delay by the Buhari administration to put in place an economic plan, culminated in an economic recession in 2016. Though the country has recovered from the recession and has recorded <a href="http://venturesafrica.com/nbs-nigerias-gdp-grew-in-the-last-quarter-of-2018/" target="_blank">year on year GDP growth</a> since 2017, the growth rate remains low for Africa's largest economy. A pointer to this would be the rising rate of unemployment in Nigeria despite investments in social programs targeted at creating jobs for the teeming youth. While the Buhari administration has concentrated on the Government’s role in creating jobs, the opposition candidate, Atiku Abubakar touting his numerous private sector investment, has argued that his policy will focus on the private sector led growth as well as creating jobs. Another contentious area has been the fight against corruption. President Buhari rode into office primarily, on the perception that he is incorruptible, and would deal with the scourge ruthlessly. Indeed, his administration has instituted some reforms including the implementation of a <a href="http://venturesafrica.com/federal-government-introduces-treasury-single-account-tsa-to-fight-corruption-in-nigeria/" target="_blank">Treasury Single account (TSA)</a>, aimed at consolidating revenues in the Federation account as against previous practice where Government agencies were at liberty to open numerous accounts, thereby creating challenges with oversight and transparency. Perhaps, a major recognizable success of the Buhari administration is what it has been described as a “single-minded commitment: to upgrading and developing Nigeria’s transport, power and health infrastructure.” Many of these abandoned projects date as far back as 2000. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Further to this, additional reforms have resulted in the clean-up of the <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/more-news/245692-nigerian-govt-saves-n120bn-checking-ghost-workers-personnel-cost.html" target="_blank">Government’s payroll, unearthing thousands of ghost workers</a>. Despite these measures, the inability of the administration to combat corruption close home, remains a challenge. A few of the President’s associates have been accused of one form of corrupt act or the other, including the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation who is now facing charges following intense pressure from the civil society, the media and the opposition. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Nonetheless, the Buhari Government continues to argue that it has kept to its promises but has had to contend with cumulative failures of the PDP in the preceding 16 years. This is the baggage Atiku Abubakar carries into this election. As Vice President of Nigeria between 1999 and 2007, Atiku cannot be absolved from the successes and failures of the 16 years of PDP. However, his role in the privatization of public enterprises, as well as the indictment in a <a href="https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/download/report-psi-staff-report-keeping-foreign-corruption-out-of-the-united-states-four-case-histories" target="_blank">United States Senate Report</a> which mention him and one of his wives in bribery and corruption cases, remain controversial. Though not convicted by any court of law both in Nigeria or the United States, Atiku had been unable to visit the United States for over 12 years on account of the indictment until recently when the United States issued him a visa in January 2019. Yet, he continues to plead his innocence and maintains he is the right candidate to ‘get Nigeria working again.' His much-touted business acumen, political sagacity, financial manpower and cosmopolitan outlook remain his unique selling points going into this election. </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><img alt="" src="/ckfinder/userfiles/images/blog-nigeria-feb14(1).png" style="width: 100%" /></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Analysis of the figures released by INEC shows that <a href="https://www.yiaga.org/shaping-the-narrative-of-nigerias-2019-elections-with-big-data-itodo-samson/" target="_blank">51.11%</a> of the voters will be young people between the ages of 15 and 35 (Infographic Source 1). Many of these will be voting for the first time since 1999. Far more significant is the number of young people running for office in the 2019 elections. In comparison to the number of young people who ran for office in 2015, the 2019 election is witnessing an impressive number of young people vying for elective positions (See Table 2). This is attributed, mainly, to the signing into law of the <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/270538-breaking-buhari-signs-not-too-young-to-run-bill.html" target="_blank">Not Too Young Run Act</a>. The Act, a product of several years of youth mobilization and call for the removal of age impediment, has enabled the meaningful participation of the youth in electoral processes in Nigeria. Explicitly, the Act guarantees that young Nigerians between the ages of 18 to 35, (in line with the African Youth Charter), can vie for all categories of elective offices at all levels (See Table 3). Based on the age qualification addressed by the Not Too Young To Run Act, two young persons; <a href="http://www.konbini.com/ng/lifestyle/35-year-old-chike-ukaegbu-running-president-nigeria/" target="_blank">Chike Ukaegbu (35)</a> and <a href="http://toktok9ja.com/restoration-party-of-nigeria-rp-picks-nsehe-nseobong-as-presidential-candidate-video/" target="_blank">Nsehe Nseobong (33)</a> are running for President out of 73 Presidential candidates. Also, youth candidates for the upper and lower legislative houses increased by 3.5% and 9.4% respectively, compared to the 2015 elections. Despite this modest progress, limited internal party democracy, high costs of nomination forms and campaigns continue to hinder youth participation in Nigeria’s electoral processes.</p>
<p><img alt="" src="/ckfinder/userfiles/images/blog-nigeria-feb14-table2.png" style="width: 100%;" /></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Another potential impact of young people in the coming elections is in the overall voter turnout. In 2015, about <a href="https://www.idea.int/data-tools/country-view/231/40" target="_blank">45% of registered voters</a> took part in the polls. With an increase in the number of registered voters by <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/09/registered-voters-hit-84-27m-inec/" target="_blank">21%</a>, it is projected that this will have a positive impact on the overall voter turn-out in 2019. Several voter education efforts have been undertaken by INEC, political parties and civil society organisations to encourage electorates to turn out in numbers. Also, there has been significant use of social media by various election stakeholders in the lead up to the election to mobilize citizens to exercise their civic duty. Equally important to note is the thousands of National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members who will servicing the election as electoral officers. </p>
<p><img alt="" src="/ckfinder/userfiles/images/blog-nigeria-feb14-table3-image.png" style="width: 100%" /></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><em>Source: <a href="http://readytorunng.org/">http://readytorunng.org/</a></em></p>
<p class="rtejustify">There is no doubt this is yet, another important election for Nigeria. This general election provides an opportunity to consolidate on two decades of democratic practice, deepen electoral democracy and foster inclusive participation in Africa's largest democracy. Whoever wins the Presidential election will be faced with the urgent and arduous task of poverty eradication, job creation and improvement of the general wellbeing of the people. This is in addition to addressing the state of insecurity and the plight of internally displaced persons in crisis-affected states of the country. Nigerians have a choice to make, and it is not a straightforward one, particularly between the two leading candidates. </p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-14T00:00:00+01:00">Thursday, February 14, 2019</span>Ibraheem Sanusihttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/nigeria-goes-polls%22%3Eview%3C/a%3EDavos through the Lens of a Global Shaperhttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/davos-through-lens-global-shaper%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : Davos through the Lens of a Global Shaper<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-11T00:00:00+01:00">Monday, February 11, 2019</span><br />
Author : Veronique Eliane<br />
Related program : Long term development<br />
Description : <p>I recently had the privilege to represent the Global Shapers Community at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2019 in Davos-Klosters, which convened over 3,000 participants under the theme, <strong>Globalization 4.0: Shaping a New Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution</strong>. To attend Davos as a Global Shaper is a big deal. As a delegate, you are not only responsible for representing the voices of youth, about 10,000 from across the world, but you also owe it to yourself to make the best of this unique opportunity to champion the causes you are passionate about. </p>
<br />
<p class="rtejustify">There is a lot of granted cynicism around Davos, especially when thinking about issues around social inequality and globalization. From a youth perspective, I felt at times out of place. The average age of the Davos participant this year was 53 years old, and only 22% of attendants were women. The concentration of wealth and power can also be overwhelming which is part of the reason why the Davos meeting, and its ability to bring concrete and practical solutions to the world’s most pressing issues, is questioned.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">However, in the midst of the cynicism, there are leaders from politics, business, civil society and academia that demonstrate willingness to shape global, industry and regional agendas in the context of Globalization 4.0 and the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Many of them are more open and approachable here than they would normally be back in their regular environment. There are also the expected participants you meet such as painters and Buddhists, which makes you realize not everything that happens at Davos is transactional and just about business.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Being at Davos is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and allowed me to stick to my primary objective—shaping education in Africa—and devote most of my efforts to identify companies and institutions willing to invest in Africa’s biggest dividend: Its youth. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">At a community session with Henrietta Fore, Executive Director of UNICEF, the consensus was clear. The world’s largest-ever group of young people are reaching working age at a time when technology, automation and expanding webs of globalized trade are redefining the world of work and employability. Therefore, young people want better education and more skills for the jobs of tomorrow. This includes digital skills, modern agriculture, green technology and entrepreneurial skills. To address these challenges, the Global Shapers and UNICEF decided to work towards a formal partnership agreement to create impact for young people. Shapers will help UNICEF finalize the Generation Unlimited strategy, design country-level plans, and involve more young people into their work.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Leaving room for surprises and discovery led me to have a chat on Liberal Arts education with President of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, practice my Spanish with Deputy Minister of Foreign Trade Economy of Brazil, or discuss, with the Princess of Luxembourg, ways to advance access to quality education in West Africa. In Cameroon, just like in most Sub-Saharan countries, the pursuit of education can be precarious and comes at a cost. This is especially true in Southwest and Northwest Cameroon, two English-speaking regions that have been rocked by security and socio-political crises since 2016. These ongoing challenges led thousands of internally displaced populations to move to safer cities, and kept many children out of school for almost two years. As a result, enrollment in schools in afflicted regions drastically plummeted. Simultaneously, high schools in cities such as Yaounde and Douala saw their enrollment rise significantly, overwhelming staff and teachers, poorly equipped to deal with and manage this exceptional influx of students. This context makes it crucial for Cameroon to safeguard in and out-of school learning outcomes for students through capacity building programs for students and teachers, as they have primarily suffered the consequences of a crisis which, on more than one occasion, involved the abduction of students and killings of teachers and school administrators.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>Global Shapers</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">From where I stand, the Global Shapers is the best thing that happened at the Annual Meeting in Davos this year. Founded by the World Economic Forum in 2011, the Global Shapers Community is a network of inspiring young people working together to address local, regional and global challenges. With more than 7,000 members, the community spans 371 city-based hubs in 170 countries. Our areas of impact, and this until 2021, include fight climate change and protect nature, accelerate equity and inclusion, and future-proof education and entrepreneurship. Examples of projects we undertake include “<em>Wi-Fi Fou</em>”, from the Bamako hub in Mali, which aimed to increase access to new technologies for adults by providing an entire community with free Wi-Fi, or the “Green Taxis Initiative” from the Zurich hub in Switzerland, implemented to increase the acceptance of electric mobility through the introduction of electric taxis in various cities throughout the world.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">The dynamism and credibility of the Global Shapers Community are undeniable assets we leverage for advocacy and policy-making purposes. At Davos, we brought refreshing perspectives and were not afraid to ask thorny questions at the sessions in which we participated. <br />
<br />
Although diverse in race, gender and professions, the Global Shapers community aims to address local challenges with a global outlook. The technological, political, economic and societal changes that are underway are not limited to a particular country, industry or issue. My participation at Davos reminded me that the engagement of all stakeholders in sustained dialogue is crucial, as is the necessity to think systemically and beyond short-term institutional and national considerations. I consider myself privileged to belong to a community of young leaders with contagious enthusiasm and relentless drive to make a lasting impact in their communities with the understanding that collectively, we can work to improve the state of the world.<br />
</p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-11T00:00:00+01:00">Monday, February 11, 2019</span>Veronique Elianehttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/davos-through-lens-global-shaper%22%3Eview%3C/a%3EAbsurd Brexit (Part 2)http://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/absurd-brexit-part-2%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : Absurd Brexit (Part 2)<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-07T00:00:00+01:00">Thursday, February 7, 2019</span><br />
Author : Helmut Sorge<br />
Related program : Geopolitics and International Relations<br />
Description : <p class="rtecenter"><a href="http://www.ocppc.ma/opinion/absurd-brexit-part-1#.XFxR1vlKhPY"><u><em><strong>If you haven't read Part 1, click here.</strong></em></u></a></p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>Stand By For the Maintenance of Public Order</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Michael Ryan, chairman of the Independent Film and TV Alliance considers Brexit “a major blow to the UK film and TV industry,” since European funds, between 2007 and 2015 nearly 145 million dollars, will not be available anymore. The Sadler’s Wells Theatre, a major classical dance house in London, received, over the past five years, about 550 000 dollars from Brussels, money used for collaborative projects that involve cross European relations, deplored Alistair Spalding, the artistic director—no more ! On January 25, the EU Medicines Agency, since 1995 in the capital, lowered the 28 EU flags, transferring its 900 employers to the Netherlands. The government has already identified several sites around the country that could be used for storage of huge amounts of food. In case of a no deal, which would mean the UK crashing out of the Union, citizens may be asked to change their eating habits to avoid food shortages. Tens of thousands of soldiers are to be called on standby to maintain public order.</p>
<br />
<p>As early as 2017, Deutsche Bank began processing business for non-UK customers through its booking center in Frankfurt instead of London (<a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-economy-and-policymakers-prepare-for-no-deal-brexit-a-1248840.html" target="_blank">Bartz <em>et al</em>, Spiegel, 2019</a>). As explained by Bartz <em>et al</em>, “<em>The focus now is on withdrawing staff from London and distributing them among other localities in Europe… Without certification from the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), which would no longer have supervisory authority over Britain (following a no deal Brexit), no British-made parts could be installed in European jets</em>” (<a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-economy-and-policymakers-prepare-for-no-deal-brexit-a-1248840.html" target="_blank">Spiegel, 2019</a>).</p>
<p>A dramatic situation for Airbus—all wings used by the company are made in the UK. Low cost airlines like Ryan Air are in danger of losing routing rights, meaning they would need to rearrange their flight destinations, the Brexit revolution possibly touching tourist centers like Marrakech. Bartz <em>et al</em>, in their publication “<a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-economy-and-policymakers-prepare-for-no-deal-brexit-a-1248840.html" target="_blank">German Economy Prepares for No-Deal Brexit</a>,” explain that “A<em>ir traffic in the EU is a particularly sensitive problem, given that the only airlines for whom there will be total freedom are those that are majority owned and controlled by investors inside the EU… Consequences for Airlines like Iberia, Vueling, Aer Lingus, Ryan Air and Easy Jet could be disastrous given the size of British holdings in those companies. They would lose all route rights from and within the EU</em>.”</p>
<p>As a precaution, Easy Jet, whose Chairman and company founder is a Cypriot citizen, has taken the step of setting up a subsidiary in Vienna, while Ryan Air is considering ways of reducing the influence British shareholders have over the company (<a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-economy-and-policymakers-prepare-for-no-deal-brexit-a-1248840.html" target="_blank">Bartz <em>et al</em>, Spiegel, 2019</a>).</p>
<p>Nevertheless, “<em>the European Commission is eager to prevent planes from being grounded and is considering granting companies their old route rights between Britain and continental Europe until a new aviation treaty can be concluded, at the latest, until March 2020</em>” (<a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-economy-and-policymakers-prepare-for-no-deal-brexit-a-1248840.html" target="_blank">Bartz <em>et al</em>, Spiegel, 2019</a>). </p>
<p>Still, these companies would not be allowed to operate flights from point to point within the EU, from Paris to Berlin, for example, or Bergamo to Budapest (<a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-economy-and-policymakers-prepare-for-no-deal-brexit-a-1248840.html" target="_blank">Bartz <em>et al</em>, Spiegel, 2019</a>).</p>
<p><strong>Costly Production</strong></p>
<p>Some industries, like car manufacturers, are facing unbelievable challenges--as a dramatic example serves BMW, the German, Munich-based company. As Bart <em>et al</em> point out in their <em>Spiege</em>l article: “<em>The Bavarians operate four plants in Britain. More than 20,000 ultra-compacts of the cult brand Mini are built in Cowley, near Oxford, each year. Each Mini is composed of 3,000 parts, most of which are delivered by semi–truck from continental Europe</em>.”</p>
<p>“If only one or two important parts fail to get through”, warns BMW Works Council Chairman Manfred Schoch, “we would no longer be able to continue with production” (<a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-economy-and-policymakers-prepare-for-no-deal-brexit-a-1248840.html" target="_blank">Bartz <em>et al</em>, Spiegel, 2019</a>). </p>
<p>Indeed, “<em>BMW production is designed in such a way, that gears, steering wheels or indicator lights are delivered directly to the assembly line shortly before they are needed… BMW has rented space on both sides of the English Channel to store the most important components. If trucks get delayed or stuck at the border, the plan is for planes to supply the factories by air, a costly solution</em>” (<a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-economy-and-policymakers-prepare-for-no-deal-brexit-a-1248840.html" target="_blank">Bartz <em>et al</em>, Spiegel, 2019</a>). </p>
<p>If problems with punctual deliveries can’t be solved BMW may relocate its production, most probably to the Netherlands, where the Mini convertible and a Mini subcompact are already produced (<em>Ibid</em>).</p>
<p><strong>Return to Medieval Times</strong></p>
<p>Populism, the fear of the future, global menace, threatening migrants, loss of culture, out of step with the digital reality, competition for jobs with robots, government agencies replaced by artificial intelligence, a lack of integration, a sense of isolation, the disappearance of a known world, the familiar one crumbling or disappearing altogether, moving the citizens towards the unknown like Ocean waves pulling pristine beaches into a monstrous black hole. </p>
<p>Centuries ago, drawbridges were pulled around castles whenever the enemies were threatening to invade--the UK has returned to medieval times, entangled in the misconception that in the digital age, isolation is splendid, the base for a national, yet global, economy, allowing the resurrection of a once great power, the resuscitation of traditions, and cultural values, which have faded into the storage room of romanticism and illusions.</p>
<p>“<em>I just think they’ve made such historical mistake and they have created a problem for all of us</em>,” declared Margot Wallstroem, the Swedish Foreign Minister, who served at the European Commission from 1999 through 2010. “<em>Our political project, the European Union, will suffer from this immensely and that has to be fully understood. This is because of bad political leadership since a very long time in the UK</em>.” </p>
<p>The Swedish critic observed the British attitude during the decade she worked in the EU: “<em>Nobody defended their (UKs) membership. I cannot forgive them for this</em>,” said the Social Democratic Foreign Minister. </p>
<p><strong>Royal Descent into the Trivial World of Politics</strong></p>
<p>The Queen, God bless her, her flowered hats and color full dresses, was even willing to verbally decent into the trivial world of politics by daring to suggest publicly to her parliamentarians to search for common ground: “<em>Of course, every generation faces fresh challenges and opportunities. As we look for new answers in the modern age, [but] I, for one, prefer the tried and tested recipes like speaking well of each other and respecting different points of view; coming together to seek the common ground; and never losing sight of the bigger picture. To me, these approaches are timeless, and I commend them to everyone</em>.”</p>
<p>The good old monarch, still driving a car on her estates, now and then even trotting out for a horse ride. Honestly, the marketing of the charming Queen and her assistance in her eternal “Love Britain” campaign--with Meghan and Harry, Kate and William (and soon, half a dozen grandchildren all prepared to rule and be admired)-- even by folks subsisting in misery, are more joyful to follow then politicians battling for power, career and ministerial jobs. More joyful than watching documentaries on the unemployed, the poor, forgotten in their soul-less social housing units, which did hardly change since George Orwell described the miserable existence of the working class in his classic <em>The Road to Wigan Pier</em>, bleak living conditions among the poor in Lancashire and Yorkshire in the industrial north of England. His book was published more than eight decades ago; the realities did not change for many, those Londoners existing in the poor neighborhoods for example. The down and out in Hackney, Islington, or the Tower Hamlets, do not know that houses are for sale, in Mayfair, for a cool 30 or 40 million pounds…Each. They live in the “upstairs, downstairs” world, a class society trashed already by Karl Marx, of whose philosophies the Labour Party has borrowed some elements, which seem out of time and, also, contemporary.</p>
<p>Did the forgotten masses vote to remain in Europe, or get the hell out of it? Did they vote at all? Or what would change for them, one way or the other? 59.9 percent of the London vote was to remain in the U.E., but 1.5 million citizens were trusting the promises that the greatness of the British soul and power would return once the country would get rid of the “frogs” and the “krauts,” those shady characters telling them how to produce their foamless, chilled or warm, beer or where to catch the fish. They need to provide for the culinary highlight of British cuisine, fish and chips, served in an old newspaper. No debate yet, no decision, what to do about those coaches in the football world on march 29? Or those lads carrying foreign passports? Juergen Klopp, for example, the German manager of Liverpool, or his Spanish colleague Pep Guardiola, or his Chelsea competitor, Italian Maurizio Sarri? Yes, the stable, pragmatic United Kingdom of old, lamented a <em>Reuters </em>news agency correspondent, “<em>is no more. Politics has become febrile and unpredictable</em>.” </p>
<p>The Brexit propaganda machine distorted figures, lied, exaggerated, just as Donald Trump did to win his election. Their followers, often not informed, but scared of the future… Scared for the loss of their identity, their jobs replaced by robots or migrants followed frustrations and fear, worried that people of color would move into the social housing unit next door, or that their children would sit on a bench in school next to a girl whose mother was wearing a scarf around her head. A Muslim. Sure. Possibly one of her relatives had sworn an oath to support the Islamic State in Bournemouth or Blackpool. No question: God bless the Queen was now polluted… Simple and simplistic. </p>
<p><strong>The World Limited to School Days in Eaton and Rugby</strong></p>
<p>Who needs to know about dramatic decline, or the changes of a national spirit? Stop discussing these colonialists, active since they began in 1607 to conquer America (in Jamestown, Virginia) and almost never failed to plunder gold, silk, diamonds in their colonies (about 80 nations from India to Australia, Egypt, Canada, Kenya and Iraq) to benefit the Empire, “<em>which by 1913 held sway over 421 million people, 23 percent of the world’s population at that time</em>”(<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Empire#cite_note-2" target="_blank">Maddison 2001, p. 97</a>); by 1920, the Empire covered 13,700,000 sq miles; 24 percent of the earth’s total land area (<a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3cn68807" target="_blank">Taagepera, 1997 International Studies Quarterly</a>). </p>
<p>If you did rule the world, not even a century ago, a world power and industrial giant, Rolls Royce comes to mind or the transatlantic ocean liner “Queen Elizabeth.” And ever since joining the Common Market, London was obliged to share power in Brussels, later even with nations like Malta and Cyprus, which were British colonies, used in glorious years as military or naval bases for British troops. For some nationalistic MPs, this represented a rather a psychological burden, particularly for those whose world view is limited to school days in Rugby or Eaton and Oxford or Cambridge universities, some fox hunting and practicing village cricket, and the forgotten English country side, glorified by Agatha Christie (murder exempted), stalking red deer in the Lake district or shooting pheasants. </p>
<p><strong>Cynicism Suffocated British Wit</strong></p>
<p>The UK was, and is, a cool place… It is the place where fashion was created (especially if you remember – or were around in - the 60s and early 70s?). Who can forget Twiggy and David Bailey, David Hockney, Cecil Beaton, Jean Shrimpton, and the contemporary “Biba” cosmetic folly in art deco, located on Kensington High Street, visited by one million customers weekly? </p>
<p>London erupted, tasted freedom more extreme than Parisians ever did in modern times wtih the Beatles and the Rolling Stones, or Annabelle’s night club, “Tramp” on Jermyn Street, Elton John, MGB, Morgan and Triumph sport cars, splendid tailors on Savile Row, pubs on Kings Road, glorified horse racing in Ascot, where the size of hats reflect the owners egos. Britain invented golf in Scotland (St Andrews, anno 1552), created boxing rules and structures to rowing in its modern form. Wimbledon is presenting the glory of tennis. Polo, the preferred sport of the Royal class, was imported from Asia, adapted to unending playing fields on the island. Britain is glory, and history, invention and nostalgia, and sentimentality for the past long lost. With time, cynicism suffocated British wit, the folly and eccentricity. The BBC adjusted to “news light,” some daily’s are lost in exaggerations. Confidence began to fade, terrorism caused insecurity and fear, the refugee crisis turned migration into a subject of political rage, in Italy, Germany and -- in Britain, the tolerant nation, civilized, practiced in queuing, standing in line and never cutting into the established order. Again, the Brexiteers, some driven by their own careers, a dream to move into Downing 10, were distorting facts, blaming the EU for social depression, for unemployment and the collapse of the National Health Service (NHS). Now they have to deliver. But which cards are there to play? No Royal flash for certain.</p>
<p><strong>A Political Mandate for Her Deal</strong></p>
<p>The “Norway option” (Britain remains within the single market, even after leaving the EU), General elections, a new attempt by a replacement for Mrs. May? A hard Brexit, which economists believe will lead to a 40 percent reduction in Britain’s trade with Europe? Or the demand to extend the article 50 for two months or three, trying for another solution prior to the European elections in the summer... Another referendum with possibly another close result? Uncertainty will hobble UK business investment and depress consumer spending in 2019, stunting long-term growth even if Britain manages to avoid a disorderly Brexit, according to a poll of more than 80 leading economists (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5a90765c-0ce6-11e9-acdc-4d9976f1533b" target="_blank">Strauss &amp; Jackson, Financial Times, 2019</a>). </p>
<p>As Strauss and Jackson report, “<em>Many of the economists said forecasting for 2019 was impossible given the ‘comprehensive’ and ‘chronic’ uncertainty that had become a ‘way of life’ in the UK, especially when likely Brexit outcomes were binary: either no deal or no Brexit</em>” (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5a90765c-0ce6-11e9-acdc-4d9976f1533b" target="_blank">Financial Times, 2019</a>). </p>
<p>“<em>Given the political shambles…the outlook is anything from lackluster to catastrophic, but who knows</em>,” said Diane Coyle, professor of public policy at Cambridge. Nina Skero, head of macroeconomics at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, judged whatever its long-term effects, “<em>in 2019 Brexit will be either bad or awful for the UK economy</em>.”</p>
<p>To escape the deadlock, Mrs. May could hold an early general election in order to get a political mandate for her deal. Just one minor problem: she does not have the power just to call an election. But, just as in 2017, she could ask MPs to vote for an early election under the “Fixed-term Parliaments Act” because elections are only supposed to happen every five years. The next one is due in 2022 and Mrs. May already announced she would not be a candidate. Two thirds of the MPs would need to support the move for an earlier election—the earliest date for the vote could be 25 days later. The Prime Minister would choose the date. Or she can have tea with the Queen… And resign. If the monarch wants to be kind, she should abstain from wearing her blue hat with the yellow dots. Theresa May has suffered enough.<br />
</p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-07T00:00:00+01:00">Thursday, February 7, 2019</span>Helmut Sorgehttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/absurd-brexit-part-2%22%3Eview%3C/a%3EVenezuela: What’s Next?http://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/venezuela-what%25E2%2580%2599s-next%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : Venezuela: What’s Next?<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-06T00:00:00+01:00">Wednesday, February 6, 2019</span><br />
Author : Julián Colombo<br />
Related program : Geopolitics and International Relations<br />
Description : <p>In 1999, Hugo Chávez won the presidential elections in Venezuela with 56% of the votes, starting the historical period known as the “Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela”. </p>
<br />
<p>Helped with the rise of oil prices, a true social revolution started, with a new constitution and the implementation of socialist policies. Millions of people left poverty and became members of an increasing middle class, gaining access to housing, food, health, and education. </p>
<p>When Chávez died in 2013, his Vice-President Nicolás Maduro took office and continued Chavist policies. However, when the oil prices decreased, the public expenditure was at a very high level, and inflation, poverty, and social violence arose in the country. Food became scarce, and millions of Venezuelans started fleeing the country.</p>
<p>In 2018, Nicolás Maduro was elected for a second term in office, but the elections were marked as illegitimate and rigged by a great part of the Venezuelan society. For this reason, Juan Guaidó, the head of the National Assembly of Venezuela, following article 233 of the Constitution, took oath as interim president. </p>
<p>Today, Venezuela has two presidents. Each of them is supported by different Venezuelan groups and foreign countries, and a legitimacy problem has been added to the already existent political and humanitarian crisis.<br />
The United States, a large number of European nations, and most of the Latin American governments (represented by the Lima Group) have already recognized Guaidó as the legitimate President of Venezuela; while Russia, China, Cuba, and some Caribbean and Latin American countries keep supporting Maduro, claiming that Guaidó is currently performing a coup d’état.</p>
<p>There is an intermediate position in the continent, represented by Mexico and Uruguay, calling for a summit to find a peaceful solution for the Venezuelan situation.</p>
<p>This process is extremely complex, and a peaceful resolution heavily depends on the following factors: </p>
<p><strong>A global issue</strong></p>
<p>With Brazil facing a deep internal crisis, and Mexico still struggling with its new President, the events in Venezuela are showing us, again, the lack of influence that other Latin American countries have in their own region, compared to the major global players.</p>
<p>Along with the Chinese and Russian geopolitical interests in the region, moved by their need to keep a close eye over their investments in Venezuela, the United States government said that “every strategy to solve Venezuelan crisis (including a direct invasion) is still on the table.”</p>
<p>The involvement of the international community is increasing the impact and stakes of the domestic standoff to the level of regional and global confrontation. Therefore, South America is, once again, the playground of major foreign players disputing geopolitical interests.</p>
<p><strong>A divided society</strong></p>
<p>Another component that led to this complex situation is the role of Venezuelan opposition leaders. Guaidó is different from other opposition leaders, like Henrique Capriles and Leopoldo López. He comes from a poor family, and not from the “oligarchy.” Therefore, factions of the working classes feel represented by Guaidó, and he has been able to unify the opposition in a way that other leaders could not do before.</p>
<p>However, Venezuelan society is still deeply divided, and street rallies for and against Maduro are equally massive. Social violence is increasing daily, and Venezuelan leaders must avoid it at all costs.</p>
<p>Moreover, the millions of exiled Venezuelans are causing political and economic problems in the neighboring countries. Colombia and Brazil (but also Argentina and Chile) are struggling with the consequences this massive migration is causing. And there are still millions of people inside Venezuela, with almost no food, water nor medical supplies. </p>
<p><strong>The military</strong></p>
<p>The military is a key player, and its pivot may change the country’s political scenario. </p>
<p>While the highest commanders have clearly stated their support to Nicolás Maduro, there is an increasing displeasure among the military establishment, especially amid low and mid-rank officers. This division can create the conditions for a split within the institution.</p>
<p>And that’s because there is a substantial difference between these groups. Whereas the commanders have been accused of corruption and seem to have no economic problems, the low-and-mid-rank soldiers’ families are struggling for food and medical supplies, like most of the Venezuelan community.</p>
<p>There have been signs of fracture, desertions and pronouncements by military members against the regime. Moreover, Juan Guaidó, trying to make the military flip, has stated he is committed to sign a general amnesty for those soldiers accused of human rights violations and other crimes.</p>
<p><strong>The cost of exit</strong></p>
<p>Time is an important factor. The longer Maduro stays in office, the likelier it is that he can control the public’s energy and the demand for change. Some analysts argue that he is waiting for an opposition misstep, or for Guaidó’s “moment” to pass, to retake the public confidence.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the international involvement can make time become a threat for Maduro’s ambitions. American officials are confident that the most likely outcomes for Maduro are a voluntary and negotiated exit, or an exit through violent means. </p>
<p>That depends in large part on the military, whether they keep their loyalty to Nicolás Maduro or flip to support Juan Guaidó. An amnesty or negotiated exit might be Guaidó’s key to earn the support of the armed forces, which he desperately needs.</p>
<p>The outcome also depends on the geopolitical chess and its potential effects. Negotiations in the UN Security Council are in a deadlock due to the antagonistic positions between the United States, and the China / Russia positions. On the other hand, Pope Francis is starting a series of negotiations to sit the two leaders together and try to find a peaceful resolution to this problem.</p>
<p>As mentioned, a dialogue group will summit in Uruguay to find common ground for an electoral exit, and, mainly, to coordinate humanitarian aid for millions of Venezuelans.</p>
<p>The only certainty is that Venezuelans do not deserve to suffer from political and ideological violent disputes that threaten their everyday lives. They deserve to leave in peace and prosperity. </p>
<p><em><strong>Julián Colombo is a 2018 Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leader (ADEL) alumnus and politician in Argentina.</strong></em></p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-06T00:00:00+01:00">Wednesday, February 6, 2019</span>Julián Colombohttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/venezuela-what%25E2%2580%2599s-next%22%3Eview%3C/a%3EAbsurd Brexit (Part 1)http://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/absurd-brexit-part-1%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : Absurd Brexit (Part 1)<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-04T00:00:00+01:00">Monday, February 4, 2019</span><br />
Author : Helmut Sorge<br />
Related program : Geopolitics and International Relations<br />
Description : <p class="rtecenter"><u><em><strong><a href="http://www.ocppc.ma/opinion/absurd-brexit-part-2#.XFxkwPlKhPY">To read Part II of the blog, click here</a></strong></em></u></p>
<p><strong>“We Have No Eternal Allies”</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Philip Alston was confronted with a special assignment. To write a report for the United Nations on poverty in the world’s fifth economic power in the world, a nation considered as a beacon of democracy, a Kingdom represented by a queen, not only adored by readers of glossy gossip magazines, but also by progressives and left wing intellectuals, even those who believe royalty is a waste of money, and their wealth a stark contrast to the unjust misery of its citizens. Elizabeth II is just part of our contemporary history and daily lives, a living painting, a touch of Monet, the intensity of Turner, 92 years old and still married to her Duke, who happened to reveal his age the other day, when his reflexes were obviously not on par with those of Formula One maestro, David Hamilton. The Royal driver, aged 97, crashed into another car, one woman injured, and the duke with some pain in the leg, reacted rather self-critical, “<em>I am a fool, such as fool</em>.” His Range Rover was replaced… One day later. 122,000 pounds certainly did not bother Philip, whose wife is probably the wealthiest Royal on earth, if we exclude the oil supplied Sultan of Brunei and the King of Saudi Arabia.</p>
<br />
<p class="rtejustify">Philip Alston, officially “Special Rapporteur on Extreme Poverty and Human Rights” had no reason, nor possibility, to mention this unfortunate accident at the Queen’s country estate, the Sandringham House, since it happened weeks after his study was published. In his introduction, though, he wrote of the UK’s “many areas of immense wealth” and how “despite the current political turmoil,” its system of government, “rightly remains the envy of much of the world” (<a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=23881&amp;LangID=E" target="_blank">Alston, OHCHR, 2018</a>). </p>
<p class="rtejustify">“<em>It thus seems patently unjust and contrary to British values</em>,” argues the UN rapporteur, “<em>that so many people are living in poverty. This is obvious to anyone who opens their eyes to see the immense growth in food banks and the queues waiting outside them, the people sleeping rough in the streets, the growth of homelessness, the sense of deep despair that leads even the government to appoint a Minister for suicide prevention and civil society to report in depth on unheard levels of loneliness and isolation</em>” (<a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=23881&amp;LangID=E" target="_blank">Alston, OHCHR, 2018</a>). </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Alston adds that: “<em>14 million people, a fifth of the population, live in poverty. Four million of these are 50 percent below the poverty line, and 1.5 million are destitute, unable to afford basic essentials</em>” (<a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=23881&amp;LangID=E" target="_blank">Alston, OHCHR, 2018</a>). </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>“Not Just a Disgrace but a Social Calamity”</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">The “<em>widely respected</em>” Institute for Fiscal Studies, consulted by the Professor, who usually analyzes poverty in Africa, South America or Asia, predicts a 7-percent rise in child poverty between 2015 and 2022, and various sources fear child poverty rates as high as 40 percent (<a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=23881&amp;LangID=E" target="_blank">Alston, OHCHR, 2018</a>). As Alston explains, “f<em>or almost one in every two children to be poor in twenty first century Britain is not just a disgrace but a social calamity and an economic disaster, all rolled in one</em>.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Alston continues: “<em>The country’s most respected charitable groups, its leading think tanks, its parliamentary committees, independent authorities like the National Audit Office, and many others, have all drawn attention to the dramatic decline in the fortunes of the least well off in this country. But through it all, one actor has stubbornly resisted seeing the situation for what it is. The Government has remained determinedly in a state of denial</em>.”</p>
<p class="rtejustify">When Theresa May moved into Downing Street in July 2016, she mentioned, in her first speech as Prime Minister, the millions of citizens “<em>just managing</em>” and called it a “<em>burning injustice</em>” that people born poor will die, on average, nine years earlier than the better off.. The conservative politician vowed her government would not “<em>entrench the advantages of the privileged few</em>.” Promise. The words of an irresponsible leader--the poor are still poor, worse, they are sliding even deeper into misery. Money needed was spent on Brexit, hundreds of millions for a mammoth task, implementing the wishes of the people for all the people, the government apparatus mainly paralyzed while working on the retreat from Europe. When parliament called for a debate on the Alston report, it was scheduled at 10 o clock in the evening, on a Monday, early January, [lasting only] 30 minutes. 14 of 650 members of parliament showed up, the concerned minister, Amber Rudd, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, was represented by a deputy. She knew of the harsh judgment and certainly neither willing nor prepared to defend the disaster. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">In England, homelessness is up 60 percent since 2010; rough sleeping is up 134 percent, researched Philip Alston. In fact, there are 1.2 million people on the social housing waiting list, but less than 6000 homes were built in 2017. Alston realized, during his travels, that “<em>British compassion for those who are suffering has been replaced by a punitive, mean spirited, and often callous approach apparently designed to instill discipline where it is least useful, to impose rigid order on the lives of those least capable of coping with today’s world, and elevating the goal of enforcing blind compliance over a genuine concern to improve the well-being of those at the lowest level of British society</em>” (<a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=23881&amp;LangID=E" target="_blank">Alston, OHCHR, 2018</a>). </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>“Deep Uncertainty Will Persist for a Long Time”</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">The rapporteur was aware that the publication of his study in November of last year--as seen in the short intense debate in the House of Commons--came at a critical moment on the debate over Brexit and he did not want to get involved in the debate on its merits or the optimal terms for undertaking it. “<em>Anyone concerned with poverty in the UK</em>,” he stated, has “<em>reason to be very deeply concerned</em>.” Whatever happens in the period ahead, we know that “<em>deep uncertainty will persist for a long time, that economic growth rates are likely to take a strong hit, and that tax revenues will fall significantly. If current policies towards low-income working people and others living in poverty are maintained in the face of these developments, the poor will be substantially less well off than they already are</em>.” The consequence ? For Philip Alston, “<em>this could well lead to significant public discontent, further division and even instability, thus underscoring the importance that steps be taken now to avoid such outcomes</em>” (<a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=23881&amp;LangID=E" target="_blank">Alston, OHCHR, 2018</a>). </p>
<p class="rtejustify">The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has suggested that a no deal Brexit could cost the UK economy somewhat between 5% and 8% of GDP, representing a loss of thousands of pounds per household. Almost all studies have shown that the British economy will be worse off, with consequences for inflation, real wages and consumer prices. If the government does not adequately uprate benefits to account for inflation after Brexit, warned the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, up to 900 000 more people could fall into poverty. For Alston, “<em>the UK stands to lose billions of pounds in EU funds that will disproportionately affect the poorer areas that have most benefitted from them, including almost nine billion in poverty reduction funding between 2014 and 2020</em>.” Alston, hesitant to criticize too harshly, still declared publicly, that the “<em>only clear decision</em>” Britain has made on Brexit since the 2016 referendum, was to give formal notice to quit under article 50 of the European Union’s Lisbon treaty, a legal process setting it on a two year path to departure-- in a few weeks the official deadline will be reached.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">As the threshold nears, Mrs. May and her government are trying, desperately, to overcome parliamentary arithmetic—in historical measurements one minute before midnight, seconds before reaching a social and economic earthquake, the conservative leader was, at last, willing to consult the Labour leader, whom she never involved in her historical discussions with the continental Europeans. Never in modern history has such a project been attempted, such risks been taken because a nation, or parts of it, was tempted to return to greatness and global power, alone. David vs. a global goliath. </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>150 Billion For a No Deal Brexit</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">The fantasy Brexit would be easy (Alston) is crumbling, and lawmakers who “made lofty promises” to their constituents are having to face reality. Theresa May still has options, but not any she can implement—the acceptance of her original deal (with some help from Brussels), which the parliamentarians dumped into a waste basket of history, despite the Prime minister conviction, “this is the best possible deal, it is the only possible deal.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Britain, it seems, is unwilling or unable to recall a virtue of long forgotten, glorious, days, and the art of compromise. The political class is not only gambling away the trust of its citizens, but what emerges out of this logjam, wrote <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/world/europe/what-is-brexit.html" target="_blank">Benjamin Mueller in the New York Times</a>, “could determine the shape of Britain and its place in the world for decades.” The swashbuckling, populist plan to quit the EU has stalled and almost every option is now on the table, “from a daringly complete break from Europe to abandoning Brexit altogether” (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/world/europe/what-is-brexit.html" target="_blank">New York Times, 2019</a>). Without any compromise, all ties between Europe’s Union and Britain are immediately severed on March 29, and London can pursue its trade with the EU and other countries on the basis of World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. A no deal exit, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, has calculated, could cost the country up to 150 billion pounds over the next 15 years.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>“A Catastrophic Defeat”</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Absurd, for these 650 members of Parliament to believe the European Union would be ready to extend the March 29<sup>th</sup> Brexit deadline after having endured eighteen months of negotiations between Brussels and London, a political marathon, stretching from June 2017 to November 2018. On January 15<sup>th</sup> 2019, the Prime Minister was corrected, no, punished, yes, humiliated. Mrs. May suffered the worse vote of any PM before her in the modern era of British democracy, 432 MPs voted against her Brexit deal, while 202 votes were in favor. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn stated: “This is a catastrophic defeat. The house has delivered its verdict on her deal. Delay and denial has reached the end of the line.” Yet, Theresa May did not resign. And during the last days of January, the obviously confused British MPs tried to find a sense in their own absurdity and division, trying to discover an emergency exit, seemingly only discovering, after a long phase of absenteeism (just a few weeks from a potentially fatal date), that Brexit could lead Britain not only into an abyss--sliding into yet unforeseeable economic and political disaster--, but causing historic ramifications as rambunctious as unimaginable. Ramifications consisting of social unrest, bankruptcy, mass unemployment, falling pound, shortage of medicine and the exodus of industry and financial institutions. A dangerous threshold has been reached. History is written. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Welcome to the real world... Made in Britain, supported, in 2016, by 51.9 percent of the voting population. A referendum, conceived as a support for the conservative government of David Cameron, who did not have the feeling for his people, the wrong pollsters, or only his political survival in mind. Theresa May replaced her former boss, and miscalculated as well. In June 2017, she called an election, which she did not need, and almost lost. Ten lawmakers from the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party supported her new government, but not her deal with Brussels. A Shakespearian drama, all of this, the loss of the United Kingdom for Europe. A difficult, eccentric partner at times, insisting on the pound, unwilling to join Schengen. Opinion polls do not provide any hope, just figures that prove the possibility that Britain is as divided as ever, an estimated 52 percent of its citizens inclined to remain in the EU. No certainty either. Just the hope for a kind of abracadabra, a magical word with which the UK could throw off its shackles like oppressed slaves from the EU, celebrate freedom, continue to move its goods without duties through the European markets, keeping the pound and moving illegal migrants in rubber dinghy’s back to Calais or Cherbourg. Airbus continues to manufacture the wings for all its planes on British soil, and BMW can employ 8,000 British workers in its UK factories. Abracadabra! Where are you when we need you? </p>
<p class="rtejustify">At the end, the reluctant Mrs. May was ready for an impossible, yet historic journey, perhaps for the last time visiting the EU headquarters attempting to avoid a so called “hard” Brexit, which means a disorderly, chaotic, divorce between the UK and the UE. Call it a historic nightmare. The EU declared a visit would be a waste of time—the deal was done and not renegotiable. How can the obviously indivertible, indefatigable, indestructible, indubitable Mrs. May, reach a compromise, possibly on the contentious issue or the Irish/Irish border, between the Republic of Ireland and the British province, Northern Ireland, one member of the EU, the other loyal to London ? Anti-EU politicians considered the emergency backup plan for the Northern Irish border as a trap. To prevent inspections at what was to become the EU’s outer border, London and Brussels had agreed on the so-called “backstop,” which held that if the two sides did not sign a free trade agreement by the end of the Brexit transitional period at the end of 2020, Northern Ireland would remain in the European Customs Union and, in practice within the Common Market. <em>Brexiteers </em>saw this plan as an attempt to divide the United Kingdom permanently.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>The Border of Ireland is the Border of Europe</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">In reality, Brexit means that the borders have to be controlled just as other borders, Greece touching Turkey for example, or Poland and Russia. BUT: the Catholic minority of Northern Ireland wants soft borders with the Republic, and they want to, at least, sense a feeling of unity for which they fought a civil war for more than half a century. Business people on both sides of the border fight against restrictions and demand free trade as during the last forty-five years of British-E.U. membership. Brussels, though, insists that no exception was possible, the border of Ireland is the borders of Europe and Mrs. May agreed and signed the agreement. The time has come…What now? Except ordering a removal van since a political earthquake seems unavoidable. Real estate prices tumbling, an exodus of EU-born citizens back to the continent, almost four million now facing personal instability. 2.2 million of these EU citizens are employed in the UK, just under one million are Polish nationals, with 337,000 Irish; 433,000 Romanians; 160,000 French; and 170,000 Italians.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>“Europe Cut Off From the Kingdom”</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">It was an optimistic gesture, the day in June of 2017, when the Queen spoke in parliament and wore a hat in the blue colors of the E.U., dotted with yellow spots suggesting the stars of unity, but now Elizabeth II, as ever alert at 92, may have to live until her 100<sup>th</sup> birthday, at least, to see a British recovery, and desperate attempts not to follow the paths of the Greek and Roman Empires. The Commonwealth still exists, an almost powerless symbol of Britain’s greatness, when “<em>the sun never set</em>” on his Majesty’s dominions, as author Christopher North wrote in 1829 in Blackstone’s Magazine. More than 600 colonies and dominions controlled and exploited by the Kingdom, once led by historical figures as William Gladstone, Clement Atlee, Lloyd George, Sir Winston Churchill and Viscount Palmerston, who once projected his nation’s philosophy: “<em>We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual and those interests it is our duty to follow</em>.” Sounds familiar? If you are old enough you may remember when British newspapers reported heavy fog was stopping flights from Heathrow airport, and the shipping traffic in the English channel was diverted, the papers screamed in headlines : “<em>Europe cut off from the United Kingdom</em>.” Now the fact is dramatically changing—the UK is distancing itself from Europe, into a splendid, or, who knows, miserable isolation. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">66 million British citizens, attached to its democracy and its parliamentary system (now floating between political slapstick and a memorial service of tradition) have chosen to defect from the spirit of unity and economic reality. It is their right. It is their right to burn the 585 pages of the withdrawal treaty and reduce the unity of all of Europe to ashes. Now, the reality catches up with fading illusions bordering on phantasm. The people seem, slow and reluctant to realize that their politicians did not tell them the truth about sordid Europe and a simple Brexit, the resurrection of a nation blessed by history. Factories are indeed transferring from the UK to locations in France, banks and other financial institutions are leaving for Frankfurt or Stockholm. In the future theaters, museums and Philharmonic orchestras must manage without subsidies from Brussels. How will those who voted against Europe one day explain to their kids why they just can’t work in Lyon or study at the European University in Florence, how this abscission from Europe was not opposed through civil disobedience ?<br />
</p>
<p class="rtecenter"><u><em><strong><a href="http://www.ocppc.ma/opinion/absurd-brexit-part-2#.XFxRU_lKhPY">Read Part II of the blog by clicking here.</a></strong></em></u></p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-02-04T00:00:00+01:00">Monday, February 4, 2019</span>Helmut Sorgehttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/absurd-brexit-part-1%22%3Eview%3C/a%3EAtlantic Dialogues 2018, la revue de presse http://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/atlantic-dialogues-2018-la-revue-de-presse%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : Atlantic Dialogues 2018, la revue de presse <br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-01-31T00:00:00+01:00">Thursday, January 31, 2019</span><br />
Author : Sabine Cessou<br />
Related program : Geopolitics and International Relations<br />
Description : <p>La conférence Atlantic Dialogues, organisée par le Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) à Marrakech, du 13 au 15 décembre 2018, a fait l’objet d’une <a href="http://www.ocppc.ma/press">couverture presse exceptionnelle</a>, avec plus de 50 sujets traités au Maroc, en français et en arabe, ainsi qu’une dizaine de papiers à l’étranger.</p>
<br />
<p>La presse nationale a largement annoncé l’ouverture de la conférence et la parution du <a href="http://www.ocppc.ma/sites/default/files/Rapport%20-%20Atalntic%20Current%20AD%202018%20%28Web%29.pdf" target="_blank">rapport Atlantic Currents</a>. Elle a retenu des trois jours de débats l’essor du populisme (<a href="http://leseco.ma/economie/72505-atlantic-dialogues-le-populisme-au-coeur-du-debat.html" target="_blank">LesEco.ma</a>, <a href="https://maroc-diplomatique.net/populisme-et-mondialisation-au-centre-de-la-7eme-edition-de-atlantic-dialogues/" target="_blank">Maroc Diplomatique</a>, <a href="https://www.barlamane.com/%D8%AD%D8%B3%D9%86-%D8%A3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D9%8A%D9%85%D9%86%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B3-%D8%A8%D8%AB%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%B3%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%AC%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%B1/" target="_blank">Barlamane</a>, <a href="https://al3omk.com/362121.html" target="_blank">Al3omk Almaghribi</a>), le changement climatique (<a href="http://www.2m.ma/ar/news/%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%88-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%A8%D9%80%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A3%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%8A%D8%B4%D8%AF%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%B9%D9%85-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%85%D9%88%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%84%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A9-%D8%A2%D8%AB%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%BA%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%AE%D9%8A-20181215/" target="_blank">2M</a>, <a href="https://ar.lesiteinfo.com/economie/181666.html" target="_blank">Le Site Info</a>, <a href="https://www.challenge.ma/changement-climatique-lafrique-a-besoin-de-plus-de-financement-plus-vite-102339/" target="_blank">Challenge</a>, <a href="https://lereporterexpress.ma/2018/12/15/atlantic-dialogues-les-pays-du-sud-face-aux-changements-climatiques/" target="_blank">Le Reporter Express</a>) et la redéfinition de l’espace atlantique (<a href="http://aujourdhui.ma/economie/atlantic-dialogues-les-principaux-enjeux-du-bassin-atlantique-decortiques" target="_blank">Aujourd’hui le Maroc</a>, <a href="https://lereporterexpress.ma/2018/12/14/atlantic-dialogues-restructurer-lespace-atlantique/" target="_blank">Le Reporter Express</a>, <a href="http://www.medi1tv.ma/fr/atlantic-dialogues-pour-une-communaut%C3%A9-%C3%A9largie-de-l-atlantique-actualit%C3%A9s-maroc-infos-138333" target="_blank">Medi1 TV</a>, <a href="https://ahdath.info/443318" target="_blank">Al Hadath</a>). « Experts et dirigeants considèrent que la migration ne peut pas être résolue par une approche sécuritaire », a par ailleurs rapporté la <a href="http://www.2m.ma/ar/news/%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%88-%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D9%88%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%86-%D9%8A%D8%B9%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%A3%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%84%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%87%D8%AC%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%84%D8%A7-%D9%8A%D8%AD%D9%84-%D8%A8%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A9-%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-20181215/" target="_blank">chaîne de télévision 2M</a>. Un entretien exclusif avec le Général Christopher Craige, directeur de la stratégie, de l’engagement et des programmes de l’US Africa Command (Africom), a été publié par <a href="https://lobservateur.info/la-une/entretien-exclusif-avec-le-general-americain-stratege-de-lafricom/" target="_blank">L’Observateur du Maroc et de l’Afrique</a>. </p>
<p>A l’étranger, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/sub-saharan-africa-isis-boko-haram-al-qaeda-terror-attacks-islam-jihad-extremism-a8689126.html" target="_blank">The Independent (Grande-Bretagne) </a>s’est intéressé aux questions de sécurité dans le Sahel. Son correspondant en Turquie précédemment posté en Irak, Borzou Daragahi, a cité nombre d’experts présents sur le phénomène d’un glissement vers l’Afrique du jihad global. Kim Dozier, spécialiste des questions de défense et de renseignement, a souligné dans <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/nobody-wants-the-world-according-to-trump" target="_blank">The Daily Beast (USA)</a> la forte critique, faite à Marrakech, de la politique étrangère de Donald Trump, dans un article intitulé « Personne ne veut voir le monde selon Trump ». <a href="http://www.ocppc.ma/ckfinder/userfiles/files/FAB%20DU%20JEUDI%2020%20DECEMBRE%202018.pdf" target="_blank">Le Soleil (Sénégal)</a> s’est inquiété de « l’essor du fascisme », tandis que <a href="https://forbesafrique.com/limmigration-un-defi-plus-africain-queuropeen/" target="_blank">Forbes Afrique</a> a traité de la migration, en tant que « problème plus africain qu’européen ». Richard Werly, correspondant à Paris du quotidien suisse Le Temps, a écrit pour le mensuel <a href="http://www.gavroche-thailande.com/actualites/ailleurs-en-asie/109480-g-opolitique-entre-l-afrique-et-l-asie-le-role-de-la-chine-en-debat" target="_blank">Gavroche Thaïlande</a> sur « le rôle de la Chine en débat, entre l’Afrique et l’Asie ». Dans un entretien accordé à <a href="https://www.jeuneafrique.com/690879/economie/karim-el-aynaoui-il-y-a-de-grandes-incertitudes-quant-aux-regles-du-commerce-mondial/" target="_blank">Jeune Afrique</a>, Karim El Aynaoui, le Directeur général du PCNS, est revenu sur les « grandes incertitudes quant aux règles du commerce mondial ». </p>
<p>Il a également détaillé le positionnement original des Dialogues atlantiques en tant que « creuset où le Nord rencontre le Sud », lors de plusieurs entretiens (Le Soleil, Tel Quel, <a href="https://ahdath.info/443826" target="_blank">Ahdhat.info</a>, <a href="http://www.2m.ma/fr/news/karim-el-aynaoui-atlantic-dialogues-un-creuset-ou-le-nord-vient-a-la-rencontre-du-sud-20181215/" target="_blank">2M</a>, <a href="https://www.lavieeco.com/news/en-direct/karim-el-aynaoui-un-think-tank-sert-a-passer-des-messages-et-de-comprendre.html" target="_blank">La Vie Eco</a>). « L’idée à travers l’organisation de cette 7ème édition est de créer une communauté de l’Atlantique, ou ce qu’on appelle l’Atlantique élargi, qui s’étend au-delà de la relation traditionnelle transatlantique Nord, en y intégrant les façades africaine et sud-américaine », a déclaré Karim El Aynaoui au <a href="https://telquel.ma/2018/12/15/karim-el-aynaoui-nous-avons-cree-un-espace-ou-le-nord-vient-a-la-rencontre-du-sud_1621920" target="_blank">magazine Tel Quel.</a></p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-01-31T00:00:00+01:00">Thursday, January 31, 2019</span>Sabine Cessouhttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/atlantic-dialogues-2018-la-revue-de-presse%22%3Eview%3C/a%3EWhy Brazil Must Build a (Fiscal) Wallhttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/why-brazil-must-build-fiscal-wall%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : Why Brazil Must Build a (Fiscal) Wall<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-01-31T00:00:00+01:00">Thursday, January 31, 2019</span><br />
Author : Otaviano Canuto<br />
Related program : Long term development<br />
Description : <p><em><strong>Without reforms, financial markets’ optimism may crumble – and bring the house down.</strong></em></p>
<p>Judging by the reaction of financial markets, the Brazilian economy started the year at high speed. The real is among the world’s best-performing currencies so far in 2019 and the main stock market index Ibovespa hit a string of record highs leading into last week, when it broke the 97,000-point mark. Future interest rates have fallen sharply. </p>
<br />
<p>Foreign investors are buying in as well. The premium demanded as compensation for the inherent risk of buying Brazilian bonds, the Credit Default Swap rate (CDS), that in September was above 310 basis points has fallen to around 180 basis points, a range close to that of emerging countries with an investment-grade seal. </p>
<p>Brazil's new economy minister, Paulo Guedes, is at the heart of markets’ optimism. Starting with his inaugural speech, Guedes’ priorities have been music to financial investors' ears. He proposes "fiscal walls" to sustain the 20-year public spending ceiling mandated by a constitutional amendment approved by Congress in 2016. These walls would consist of a public expenditure review with substantial pension reform, extensive privatizations - both as a source of extra proceeds and to re-focus companies on their core missions – a simplified tax code and, overall, an improvement of Brazil’s business environment.</p>
<p>There are nevertheless two major “buts.” Current optimism with financial assets is based on confidence that the entire Bolsonaro administration and Congress will move forward along the fiscal adjustment path. Current financial assets already reflect such a belief and we may see further highs as steps are taken down the road. But if the administration or Congress fails to act, or if the measures they take are perceived as weak, confidence may dissipate and bring down asset prices. </p>
<p>The second “but” has to do with the real economy, where private investment, income growth and, with a time lag, job creation take place. There is a stark contrast between the top floor of asset prices and the ground floor of the real economy. Even though agriculture is poised to yield a third super-harvest in a row and mining has maintained reasonable stability since the end of the recession, manufacturing has wobbled, and construction has performed unfavorably since 2016. </p>
<p>Then there is the labor market. Priscilla Burity, in a BTGP actual report, shows that the underlying labor market has crossed a patch rougher than what the headline unemployment rate may suggest. In big cities, unemployment rates are higher than national ones and have not trended down. The share of discouraged workers out of the labor force is near record highs and labor underutilization has risen since the first quarter of 2017. Even assuming annual GDP growth at 2.5 percent, single-digit unemployment rates are not expected before 2021. And an improvement of labor market conditions is necessary to underpin a virtuous cycle of credit and higher private spending. </p>
<p>At the beginning of 2018, conditions seemed robust enough for an acceleration of economic growth. Debt levels for families and companies had come down, interest rates were low and private banks’ ability and willingness to lend money was there. But the actual GDP performance has disappointed. Business confidence was never high enough to lift investments and, in an election year marked by political polarization, the private sector adopted a wait-and-see attitude. </p>
<p>Now the starting point is again one of higher confidence on a fiscal adjustment, while the overall scenario is still of lower household and corporate debt levels, low interest rates, easier financial conditions and idle capacity, including in the labor market. Growth forecasts are in the range of 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent for 2019-2020 with higher expectations for some virtuous cycle between new credit, increased business expenditures and a more active consumer outweighing the fiscal retrenchment.</p>
<p>The bottom-line for 2019 is straightforward. Either confidence in those fiscal walls is reassured and market optimism trickles down to the real economy, or the risks of a crash mounts – particularly as the global scenario looks riskier than in previous years. Given the current landscape, Brazil better build those walls fast! </p>
<p><em><strong>This blog first appeared at <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/why-brazil-must-build-fiscal-wall" target="_blank">Americas Quarterly</a></strong></em></p>
<p> </p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-01-31T00:00:00+01:00">Thursday, January 31, 2019</span>Otaviano Canutohttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/why-brazil-must-build-fiscal-wall%22%3Eview%3C/a%3EPrésidence de la Banque mondiale: Quelles perspectives pour le monde en développement ?http://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/pr%25C3%25A9sidence-de-la-banque-mondiale-quelles-perspectives-pour-le-monde-en-d%25C3%25A9veloppement%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : Présidence de la Banque mondiale: Quelles perspectives pour le monde en développement ?<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-01-30T00:00:00+01:00">Wednesday, January 30, 2019</span><br />
Author : Mouhamadou Moustapha Ly<br />
Related program : Long term development<br />
Description : <p class="rtejustify">En l’espace d’une année, la Banque mondiale (BM) a enregistré deux démissions parmi son top management. Il y a douze mois (Janvier 2018), Paul Romer quittait la Banque mondiale pour retourner dans le monde académique. Au début de ce mois de janvier 2019, Jim Yong Kim annonce son départ de la présidence de la même institution pour rejoindre une autre spécialisée dans le financement des infrastructures. </p>
<br />
<p class="rtejustify">Pour Paul Romer, les critiques à l’endroit du classement Doing Business, et la réaction du gouvernement du Chili, n’ont certainement pas été étrangers à son départ. Jim Yong Kim, quant à lui, a invoqué le souhait de s’orienter désormais vers une institution privée, dédiée au financement d’infrastructures dans les économies en développement. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Il ne s’agit pas, ici, d’une analyse sur les causes de ces différents changements et départs dans le top management de la Banque mondiale, mais plutôt de discuter les deux éléments suivants : dans quelle mesure cette situation à la Banque mondiale serait une opportunité pour quelques réformes (même mineures) des accords de Bretton Woods et, ensuite, allons-nous assister à un recul de l’engagement de la Banque mondiale sur le terrain du développement dans les pays les plus fragiles ? </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Les deux questions suscitées renvoient, dans une certaine mesure, à la crainte exprimée par des analystes de voir un symbole fort du multilatéralisme ébranlé. Autrement dit, l’option qui semble être celle de l’administration américaine sous Trump (celle d’un unilatéralisme sur les grandes questions mondiales) risque-t-elle de se traduire par un recul de l’engagement américain en faveur du développement économique dans les PED ? Un recul américain qui entrainerait à son tour un désengagement d’une Banque mondiale (sous influence de l’administration américaine) sur le financement multilatéral du développement. </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>L’appui au développement en péril ?</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Au regard de certains éléments, le risque de voir l’administration américaine et, par ricochet, la Banque mondiale, revoir significativement leur contribution, à la fois dans la réflexion et le financement de l’appui au développement, paraît assez négligeable. <br />
Le premier argument est simplement statistique. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">• Il y a, d’abord, l’évolution des décaissements de l’aide publique américaine au développement. La Figure-1 montre assez clairement que l’assistance au développement américaine depuis plus d’une décennie (période pendant laquelle se sont succédé des gouvernements démocrates et conservateurs) tourne autour de 0,2% du PNB. A cet égard, le seul procès qui peut être fait est celui de la promesse non tenue de dédier au moins 0,7% du PNB à l’aide au développement. <br />
• Pour le cas de la Banque mondiale, ses dirigeants ont récemment réaffirmé l’option ferme (à travers une contribution de son président sortant M. Jim Yong Kim in Foresight Africa – Brookings institution 2019) d’apporter un soutien plus important aux économies en développement, plus particulièrement celles en situation de « fragilité conflit et violence ». L’objectif de vaincre l’extrême pauvreté à l’horizon 2030 reste plus que jamais la pierre angulaire des actions de la Banque mondiale. A ce titre, entre 2016 et 2018, la BM a investi plus de 4 milliards de dollars en soutien aux initiatives privées dans les pays dits fragiles. De plus, la figure-2 montre une évolution des décaissements de la Banque mondiale, qui ont repris après une chute observée en 2010. Et en l’état actuel des données disponibles, aucun argument ne laisse envisager une chute de l’aide au développement. </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><img alt="" src="/ckfinder/userfiles/images/LY-Graph1.png" /></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Un second ensemble d’arguments relève davantage de la géopolitique. A ce niveau, se rejoignent deux faisceaux d’idées avec, d’abord, la percée de la Chine comme partenaire important pour beaucoup de pays en développement, notamment ceux d’Afrique subsaharienne, ensuite et, surtout, le développement économique qui est un outil central dans la lutte contre le terrorisme et l’extrémisme dans les zones les plus vulnérables. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Même si la « concessionnalité » des interventions chinoises reste assez discutable, elle renforçait ses engagements en 2018 en termes de financement pour l’Afrique, avec une promesse de 60 milliards de dollars. Ainsi, il est indéniable que les rivalités sino-américaines se sont transportées sur le terrain du continent africain. Dans un récent discours, M. John Bolton, en déclinant la stratégie africaine du président Trump, n’a pas raté l’occasion de dénoncer (en usant d’adjectifs très forts) les actes posés par la Chine et la Russie, tous deux accusés de comportements voraces et déloyaux envers les intérêts américains en Afrique (<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-national-security-advisor-ambassador-john-r-bolton-trump-administrations-new-africa-strategy/" target="_blank">White House Briefing, 2018)</a>.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Malgré le discours assez critique sur la qualité des institutions dans les pays du continent africain, et la menace de réduire, voire de couper, l’aide aux « mauvais élèves », l’administration américaine s’est résolue à prendre tout cela à contre-pied et de quasiment doubler le budget du « Overseas Private Investment Corporation ». Le gouvernement américain est, dès lors, conscient que face aux importants besoins de financement et d’infrastructure en Afrique, tout désengagement de sa part tournera à l’avantage de la Chine qui représente une alternative crédible pour les économies en développement. Cet argument paraît, également, valable pour spéculer sur les interventions à moyen terme de la Banque mondiale. Affaiblir cette dernière sur le terrain du multilatéralisme reviendrait à tourner davantage les Etats en développement vers les capitaux chinois et, dans une moindre mesure, russes. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">
<img alt="" src="/ckfinder/userfiles/images/Ly-Graph2.png" /></p>
<p><strong>Doit-on (dans l’immédiat) réformer Bretton Woods, et à quels prix ? </strong></p>
<p>Dans l’immédiat, et comme cela a été le cas il y a six ans, se pose l’épineuse question du choix de la personnalité devant diriger l’institution de Washington. L’arrangement, tacite depuis 1944, a été de laisser le poste de président de la Banque mondiale aux USA et celui de directeur général du FMI aux Etats européens. Les économies émergentes réclament de plus en plus que cette répartition soit revue, car la structure de l’économie mondiale est bien différente de celle qui prévalait en 1944. </p>
<p>Dans les cercles spécialisés, certains noms de successeurs sont avancés, tels que Michelle Bachelet (ancienne présidente du Chili), Ngozi Okonjo Iweala (ancienne ministre des finances du Nigéria), Nelson Barbosa (ancien ministre des Finances du Brésil) ou encore le Chinois Justin Yifu Lin (ancien économiste en chef à la Banque mondiale) ; il ne nous aura pas échappé que toutes ces personnalités sont originaires de pays émergents. </p>
<p>Quel que soit le candidat qui sera retenu par le Conseil d’administration de l’Institution, celui-ci devra s’intéresser à un certain nombre de questions déterminantes sur l’avenir de l’appui au développement. Entre autres questions, il y a l’épineux critère d’allocation de l’aide qui doit corresponde aux réalités et besoins des pays en développement en cette deuxième décennie du 21ème siècle. Par ailleurs, la Banque mondiale aura besoin d’éclaircir sa position sur l’idée rampante de la titrisation de l’assistance au développement. <br />
</p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-01-30T00:00:00+01:00">Wednesday, January 30, 2019</span>Mouhamadou Moustapha Lyhttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/pr%25C3%25A9sidence-de-la-banque-mondiale-quelles-perspectives-pour-le-monde-en-d%25C3%25A9veloppement%22%3Eview%3C/a%3EThe Indispensable Nation in the Free Worldhttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/indispensable-nation-free-world%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : The Indispensable Nation in the Free World<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-01-28T00:00:00+01:00">Monday, January 28, 2019</span><br />
Author : Helmut Sorge<br />
Related program : Geopolitics and International Relations<br />
Description : <p class="rtejustify"><strong>“An Early Christmas Present to Our Adversaries”</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">“<em>America retreats, chaos follows</em>,” stated Mike Pompeo, Foreign Secretary of the United States, speaking in Egypt’s Cairo to a selected audience at the American university. “<em>When we neglect our friends, resentment builds. And when we partner with enemies, they advance</em>.” He knows, Pompeo was briefly in charge of the CIA. Less than twenty-four hours after the speech, including the line that “<em>the age of self-inflicted American shame is over</em>,” America’s troops started pulling out of Syria; in the middle of the night. Symbolism not intended (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-pompeo-egypt/in-cairo-pompeo-blasts-obamas-middle-east-policies-idUSKCN1P41CM" target="_blank">Wroughton &amp; Masri, Reuters, 2019</a>). Ten armored vehicles crossed the border towards Iraq, some trucks followed from a military base in Syria’s northeastern town of Rmelan. With the dust the vehicles hurled into the air, criticism followed towards Washington, praise reached the Oval Office, from Putin in Moscow, “<em>Donald’s right</em>,” and from another authoritarian leader in Ankara, who published his opinion in an article for the <em>New York Times</em>, Recep Tayyip Erdogan : “<em>President Trump made the right call to withdraw from Syria</em>.” Turkey, he reminded readers, has NATO’s second largest standing army, and “<em>is the only country with the power and commitment to perform the task defeating the so called Islamic state and other terrorist groups in Syria</em>.”</p>
<br />
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>“The Defenestration of the Syrian Kurds”</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">On December 19, Donald Trump, President and Commander-in-Chief, inexperienced in the simplest military matters (he escaped military duty in Vietnam by producing a medical document asserting problems with bones in his feet) had announced, on Twitter, that he would pull the remaining 2,000 American soldiers out of Syria, and, [that] within 30 days, the US involvement would come to an end.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Chaos followed as predicted by Pompeo. Only at a different site, in Washington. Jim Mattis, the Secretary of Defense, a retired four-star general, resigned, since he had tried to change the President’s mind, failed, and wrote Donald Trump a letter stating that he was entitled to work with a defense secretary whose views were “<em>better aligned with yours.</em>”</p>
<p class="rtejustify">The President seems ready to sacrifice the Syrian Kurdish allies of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), who had fought gallantly with and for the US within the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against the radical Islamic State. Apparently, Trump, supposedly, encouraged Erdogan in a phone conversation to send his troops across the border, occupy Syrian territory and fill the void. The Kurds? In his opinion piece for the <em>New York Times</em>, Erdogan placed them under “<em>other terrorist groups</em>.” No doubt for Steven Simon, visiting professor of history at Amherst, former advisor on the National Security Council in the Clinton and Obama administrations, that “<em>cold strategic logic</em>” was eventually going to “<em>dictate the defenestration of the Syrian Kurds</em>.”</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>“One of These Failed Generals”</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Trump, who, instead of golfing in Palm Beach (because of the government shut down due to a budget battle involving funds for the US/Mexico wall) remained in the White House and followed the influential Sunday morning news shows, one of his favorite pastimes. One of the participants, retired general Stanley A. McChrystal, who commanded American troops in Afghanistan (2009 to 2010), warned that leaving Syria would effectively give up any American leverage over the war there. As McChrystal states,“<em>if you pull American influence out, you are likely to have greater instability and of course it will be much more difficult for the United States to try to push events in any direction</em>.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Trump reacted to the criticism of the highly decorated veteran by treating him as “<em>one of these failed generals</em>,” a man with “<em>a big, dumb mouth</em>” and as “<em>Hillary lover</em>.” The decision to not only pull all 2000 GIs out of the Middle East region, but reduce the 14,000 US troops active in Afghanistan by 50 percent, “<em>went against the top advisers, blindsided our allies, and congress, and delivered an early Christmas present to our adversaries from Russia and Iran to Hezbollah and the Taliban</em>,” criticized Susan E. Rice, national security advisor to President Barack Obama and United States ambassador to the United Nations. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">“<em>The cost of this chaos is enormous, starting with the blunt, unnerving resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis</em>,” stated Rice in the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/23/opinion/trump-mattis-syria-afghanistan.html" target="_blank">New York Times op-ed</a>, adding “<em>one of the last senior administration officials committed to preserving American global leadership and alliances</em>.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Mattis helped persuade Mr. Trump not to pull out of NATO (although the President keeps talking about it in private) and worked to assure Europe that the US remained committed to a common defense of the continent (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/22/opinion/editorials/trump-mattis.html" target="_blank">The Editorial Board, New York Times, 2018</a>). In his resignation letter, Mattis reminded Trump that the US was “<em>the indispensable nation in the free world</em>” and “<em>our strength as a nation is inextricably linked to the strength of our unique and comprehensive system of alliances and partnerships</em>.” Although the general could not prevent it, he helped to delay the abrogation of the Iran nuclear deal. Mattis was unable to stop Trump’s decision in upending decades of Middle East policy by moving the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem without gaining any ground towards peace. On the contrary, Iran-backed Hamas has not been stopped in firing rockets into Israel’s towns and villages. And in the first two years, the Trump administration has not shown any progress in Palestinian /Israeli peace initiatives, promised by Trump’s son-in-law, who may be too busy in dealing with his own entanglement in the so called Russia connection. </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>A Profoundly Changed Situation</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Trump did--not only--not inform congress about his decision, the President “who gleefully flaunts his instability and thirst for disorder every day” (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/24/opinion/trump-mattis-turnover.html" target="_blank">Michael Tomasky, New York Times, 2018</a>), didn’t inform close allies like Britain and France about his impulsive decision neither, and more than 70 other involved coalition members, active in the ISIS battle, were reading the end of the mission in their local newspapers. Brett McGurk, special presidential envoy for the Global Coalition resigned in protest.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Emmanuel Macron, the French President, whose police these days battles the “<em>Yellow vests</em>” in the streets in ever growing numbers and violence, declared “<em>an ally must be dependable.</em>” His defense minister, Florence Parly, deplored that its forces were engaged over Syria “<em>in the frame work of a coalition, which is led by the Americans, trying to eliminate the remaining Islamic State forces in Iraq and Syria.</em>” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">“<em>But now it is evident</em>” that Mr. Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria “<em><strong>profoundly changes the situation</strong></em>” the Defense Secretary told RTL radio. This is a “<em>morning of alarm</em>,” Carl Bildt, the former Swedish Prime Minister, said on Twitter. Mr. Mattis was seen as “<em>the last strong bond across the Atlantic in the Trump administration</em>," since “<em>all the others are fragile at best or broken at worst</em>.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>The High Priest of the Church has gone</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">The hidden, at times openly expressed, fear that Trump is even willing to abandon the NATO alliance, is once again making headlines or force political scientists and the global think tank communities to reassess the reliability of Washington under Trump’s erratic, impulsive leadership. For Francois Heisbourg, a former French defense official, the Mattis resignation was a landmark moment of an American President under fire, in open opposition to his intelligence and military structures, acting with “utter disregard for traditional US allies in his sudden decision to pull troops out of Syria and Afghanistan” (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/21/world/europe/trump-jim-mattis-syria.html" target="_blank">Erlanger &amp; Perez, New York Times, 2018</a>).</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Trump, who claimed for himself “<em>I could have been a good general</em>,” did not inform his Asian allies on the drawdown of troops either. “<em>Now everyone has to work on the assumption</em>,” stated Francois Heisbourg, “<em>that the alliance system is no longer there</em>.” The organizations are there, the treaties are there, the troops and equipment are still there, “<strong><em>but the high priest of that church is gone</em></strong>.” In a tweet (where else ?), Trump had declared ISIS was defeated in Syria, “<em>my only reason for being there during the Trump presidency</em>.”</p>
<p class="rtejustify">When retired generals, and even congressional allies, disagreed publicly with the President's assessment, the Commander-in-Chief corrected his declaration to “<em>almost defeated</em>.” And “<em>mostly gone.</em>” Or “<em>largely defeated.</em>” And, in case you did not understand the Presidential message, Trump repeated, “<em>we are slowly sending our troops back home to be with their families, while at the same time fighting ISIS remnants.</em>” He promised one of his trusted, but upset and irritated allies, Senator Lindsey Graham (whom he invited to lunch into the White House), that he ordered a “<em>pause</em>” in pulling out troops, and, “<em>by the way, I never gave the order to rush the retreat</em>.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">When the President visited US troops for the Christmas period, four hours in total on the ground of the Al Assad Air Base in Iraq, he declared: “<em>We are no longer the suckers, folks. Our presence in Syria was not open ended, and it was never intended to be permanent. Eight years ago, we went there for three months, and we never left</em>.” In the second week of January, in Cairo, Pompeo insisted in his speech: “<strong><em>Let me be clear: America will not retreat until the terror fight is over</em></strong>.”</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>“Now We Do It Differently”</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">America’s commanders in Syria requested an extension of six months; the time needed to dislocate and defeat an estimated 2,500 Islamic State fighters entrenched on a 20-mile area in the Southeastern region of Syria, around towns like Hajin in the Deir al–Zour province. Trump refused any extension. His strategy was not built on hope anymore, “<em>hope, hope</em>,” he said, “<em>another six months. I have given you many six months, now we do it differently.</em>” His way. The Islamic State remnants seem to mock the President’s wisdom--during the last weeks, a suicide bomber killed 19, including two US soldiers and two military contractors in the Syrian town of Manbij, and then hit again, five Kurds blown up and two American soldiers wounded. In 2014, the Islamic State still dominated an area in Iraq and Syria the size of Britain, now the Caliphate seems reduced to an illusion, although tens of thousands ISIS fighters remain throughout Syria and Iraq. Many militants melted back into the population, they can re-emerge, as was the case in Iraq once the US troops retreated in 2011.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">The ISIS safe havens in Iraq and Syria hardly exist anymore, yet it’s global enterprise of almost two dozen branches and networks, each numbering in the hundreds to thousands of members, “remain robust,” believes Russell Travers, acting head of the National Counterterrorism Center, ISIS remains an adaptive and dangerous adversary, and is “already tailoring its strategy to sustain operations amid mounting losses” (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/world/middleeast/isis-syria.html" target="_blank">Schmitt, New York Times, 2018</a>). In fact, the number of foreign fighters pouring into Iraq and Syria with a rate of 1,500 per month a few years ago, has dropped sharply, according to the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, to about 100, but “on its current trajectory, ISIS could regain sufficient strength to mound a renewed insurgency that once again threatens to overmatch local security forces in both Iraq and Syria” (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/world/middleeast/isis-syria.html" target="_blank">Schmitt, New York Times, 2018</a>). Historian, Steve Simon, confirms, through his research, that a resurgence of the Islamic State is possible, particularly after the decision of Washington to leave the region. As he explains,“<em>Its ideology still exists. The implication is that countering an ideology is somehow a military mission. Yet, the consensus of social scientists and the weight of common sense is that occupation by foreign forces induces radicalism, especially where occupation is accompanied by devastation and poverty.</em>”</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>A Brotherhood of Evil</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">The US forces had a symbolic and military importance—Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, the Turks, ISIS could not extend their regional reach, and were, at least partly, blocked in their power-grabbing maneuvering by military might. The US Air Force, for example, registered almost 30,000 aerial attacks on ISIS while Trump had promised in his “<em>America First</em>” election campaign to end American engagement in foreign wars, and, in time for the next elections just 24 months away. He also has to build a wall, force North Korea into denuclearization and China into depressing economic losses. In other words: from now on, Donald Trump is not acting only as the Commander-in-Chief, but as candidate for the Office of the President. But “cutting and running from Syria benefits only militants,” argues Susan Rice. Turkey, Russia and Iran, President Bashar al Assad of Syria… For Washington, a brotherhood of evil. Didn’t John Bolton, only weeks ago, promise that Washington would remain with its troops in the region “<em>as long as Iranian troops are outside Iranian borders, and that include Iranian proxies and militias</em>?” Didn’t he just now, although US troops are moving equipment across the border into Iraq, again promised the US would remain until ISIS is defeated? </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>“Relinquishing Our Remaining Influence”</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">John Bolton, characterized by the <em>New Yorker</em> as a “warmonger,” since he proposed, so far without success, the bombing of Iran and North Korea, and got caught in Trump’s rollercoaster politics. Retreat from Syria. Defeat of ISIS: that was the message of Pompeo and Bolton delivered to Washington’s allies in Cairo, Riyadh, Ankara and Jerusalem, eleven nations altogether. If anything, the <em>New York Times</em> criticized, “the two officials left the administrations muddier than they found it.” Trump forces the departure of his troops, and Pompeo promised in Cairo to “expel every last Iranian boot from Syria.”</p>
<p class="rtejustify">“We are abandoning our Kurdish partners,” Obama’s former National Security Advisor, Susan Rice, deplored, “we are leaving Israel alone to confront Iran and Hezbollah hostility, while relinquishing our remaining influence over the future of fractured Syria. Rice then adds, […] in abandoning the role of a responsible Commander-in-Chief, Mr. Trump today does more to undermine American national security than any foreign adversary.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">For Iran, and its ally Russia, “the departure of the United States from the region,” stated Daniel Benaim, a fellow focusing on the Middle East at the Center for American Progress, a liberal research group in Washington, “is a dream scenario. They get to tell the story that they have been telling to every actor on the ground- American friends , American foes alike—that America is no longer a reliable partner in the Middle East.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">“The withdrawal,” reported <em>New York Times</em> correspondent Ben Hubbard, is “just the latest instance of a broader American disengagement from the Middle East that could have lasting effects on one of the world’ s most volatile regions.”</p>
<p class="rtejustify">According to the Institute for the Study of War, "<em>Russia, Iran and Iran-backed militias, including the Lebanese-based Shiite group Hezbollah, are well positioned to seize territory in northeastern Syria, abandoned by US forces. They occupy 29 nearby positions, a further seven across the Iraq border</em>." The last major redoubt of rebels opposed to Assad are crowded into Idlib province in northwestern Syria, neighboring Turkey. Russia may help Assad’s forces to retake that province eventually, but not without negotiating with Turkey, a declared enemy of Assad. Iran can now attempt to link Shiite partners in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon into a united front against Israel, which is already reacting towards the advances of the enemy by almost daily bombing run by its Air Force. </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>Key Players Are Cut Out</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">“<em>It appears</em>,” wrote Susan Rice <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/23/opinion/trump-mattis-syria-afghanistan.html" target="_blank">in her New York Times Op-ed</a>, “<em>that the National Security adviser John Bolton rarely convenes his cabinet colleagues know in the White House as the ‘principals committee’ to review and debate the toughest issues. Instead, key players are cut out</em>,” as done reportedly to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at “<em>the final fateful meeting on Syria</em>.”</p>
<p class="rtejustify">A second culprit, seen by Mrs. Rice: the President himself. For the former National Security Advisor, he [Trump] “<em>has dealt the death blow to effective policy making</em>.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">“<em>The President</em>,” Rice insists, “<em>couldn’t care less about facts, intelligence, military analyses, or the national interest</em>.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">When John Bolton (for <em>New Yorker</em> author, Robin Wright, is “arguably the most abrasive American diplomat of the twenty first century”) finally met the shocked politicians and diplomats, questioning the abrupt decision, tried to salvage the situation, said Martin S. Indyk, a former ambassador to Israel, now at the Council of Foreign Relations, “<em>he was unable to do so, because everyone in the region was questioning whether he was speaking for himself or for the President</em>.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">And even if Bolton is attempting to defend or explain a position of the man occupying the Oval Office in Washington, he can never be certain whether Donald Trump did not change his mind during the night, reversing priorities. Bolton, a Yale-educated lawyer, championed the irresponsible, devastating Iraq invasion in 2013, has repeatedly urged military action in Iran and North Korea, for him "two sides of the same coin."</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Before Trump appointed the self-satisfied Bolton to be his third National Security Advisor in his two first years in office, he was on record saying that talking to North Korea is “<em>worse than a mere waste of time</em>” and suggested, publicly, to deal with the North Korean dictator as Washington did with Libya’s Gaddafi – destruction of the nuclear inventory, violent death for the leader. Not surprising that some of the authoritarian friends of Trump, as Kim Jong-Un or Erdogan, prefer dealing with the President directly, if possible with Bolton outside the conference room. Next month he will, once again, be a <em>Persona non grata</em>, not really appreciated when he meets Mr. Kim again, for another summit between the two authoritarian leaders. Apparently, they cannot wait, since Trump declared his love for the other ruthless character.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>“We Don’t Think the Turks Ought to Undertake Military Action”</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Bolton’s public image somehow was further dented some days ago when he attempted to explain the rollercoaster diplomacy of his boss in Jerusalem and Ankara. Sure, despite his visit, Israel’s Prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahou, spoke to Trump personally by phone, a last attempt to change the mind of Donald Trump, as difficult as asking him to forget to Tweet for 24 hours. Still in Jerusalem and apparently not prepared for Erdogan’s reaction, Mr. Bolton told reporters that “we don’t think the Turks ought to undertake military action that’s not fully coordinated and agreed to by the US, at a minimum so they don’t endanger our troops.” Erdogan was not amused. In his <em>New York Times</em> article, he included accusations that the American-led coalition against Islamic State had carried out airstrikes in Raqqa, Syria and Mosul, Iraq that “showed little or no regard for civilian casualties,” in contrast to Turkish troops during counterterrorism operations. Bolton protested against these accusations, and Erdogan cancelled their meeting, obviously angered by Bolton’s declaration that Turkey should protect and not harm Washington’s allies, the Syrian Kurds.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">“Different voices have started emerging from different segments of the Trump administration,” suggested Erdogan, who declared that an incursion into Syria “may happen at any moment after the Bolton meetings. If there are terrorists we will do what is necessary no matter where they come from.”</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>“A Self-Congratulatory Delusional Depiction”</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">The pro-government English language newspaper, <em>Daily Sabah</em>, accused Bolton of being part of a “soft coup against Trump on Washington, it was probably a bad idea for Bolton to go rogue and try to impose conditions on the United States withdrawal from Syria.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">“A grave mistake” added Erdogan, “it is not possible for us to swallow such a message.” <br />
The Turks do not like ISIS, but they are not threatening Turkey’s territorial integrity, whereas an autonomous Syrian Kurdish zone does” (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/08/world/middleeast/erdogan-bolton-turkey-syria-kurds.html" target="_blank">Carlotta Gall &amp; Mark Landler , New York Times, 2018</a>).</p>
<p class="rtejustify">“I don’t know how you square this circle,” said Robert S. Ford, the last American ambassador to Syria, who teaches at Yale University. Turkey is a NATO partner, a major staging point for American military operations throughout the Middle East. Incirlik Air Base is located in Southern Turkey. The Kurds, many of them, particularly the Syrians, have been loyal allies of the US, and public opinion in the USA will blame Trump if the reliable Kurds are slaughtered by Erdogan’s military. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">The President warned on January 13 in a Tweet, [that he] “will devastate Turkey economically if they hit Kurds.” Washington is contemplating the introduction of a 20-mile zone, separating Kurds and Turks at the border. But who is there to control neutrality? Turkey, waiting to invade and crush the Kurds, which, for four decades now are trying to create their own, independent ,nation? “We will not be deterred by any threat,” declared Ankara’ s Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlut Cavusoglu. If ever Kurds and Turks are battling it out, predicts history professor Steven Simon, former advisor of Clinton and Obama, “they will turn another large swath of Syria into a wildlife preserve for jihadists.” A third party has to intervene if the Americans are gone, Syria’s Assad perhaps, hated by the Turks, supported by the Russians and Iran unthinkable for Washington. But, realpolitik, reality may force Trump to talk to Assad, and to Moscow. Steven Simon knows these kind of solutions would require deft diplomacy, but “unfortunately, at the moment, the United States appears incapable of that.” Listening to Pompeo’s speech in Cairo is like “listening to someone from a parallel universe,” felt Robert Malley, former Middle East coordinator for Barack Obama , “a self-congratulatory, delusional depiction of the Trump administration’s Middle East Policy.”</p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-01-28T00:00:00+01:00">Monday, January 28, 2019</span>Helmut Sorgehttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/indispensable-nation-free-world%22%3Eview%3C/a%3EAtlantic Dialogues 2018 : pourquoi il faut relativiser l’impact de l’élection de Jair Bolsonaro au Brésilhttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/atlantic-dialogues-2018-pourquoi-il-faut-relativiser-l%25E2%2580%2599impact-de-l%25E2%2580%2599%25C3%25A9lection-de-jair%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : Atlantic Dialogues 2018 : pourquoi il faut relativiser l’impact de l’élection de Jair Bolsonaro au Brésil<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-01-21T00:00:00+01:00">Monday, January 21, 2019</span><br />
Author : Sabine Cessou<br />
Related program : Geopolitics and International Relations<br />
Description : <p>Un débat de haut niveau a porté sur le Brésil lors de <a href="http://www.ocppc.ma/AtlanticDialogues2018/atlantic-dialogues-2018-0">la conférence internationale Atlantic Dialogues</a>, organisée par Policy Center for the New South (PCNS), du 13 au 15 décembre 2018 à Marrakech. Lors de la session plénière intitulée “Brazil : What next ?”, les intervenants ont relativisé l’impact de l’élection du candidat populiste Jair Bolsonaro à la présidence du pays, le 28 octobre 2018. </p>
<br />
<p class="rtejustify">De manière forte, <a href="http://www.ocppc.ma/experts/da-gama-e-abreu-valladão" target="_blank">Alfredo Valladão</a>, Senior Fellow au PCNS et Professeur à Science Po Paris, s’est inscrit en faux contre les perceptions dominantes : « <em>Tellement de prédictions catastrophiques ont été faites sur le Brésil ces deux derniers mois… Le Brésil ne disparaîtra pas dans le trou, car il est plus grand que le trou</em> ! ». Ce pays, membre des BRICS et géant économique, représente en effet 50 % de l’économie d’Amérique du Sud. Laura Albornoz, Senior Fellow du Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, et ancienne ministre de la Femme au Chili, a également plaidé pour la prudence au sujet du Brésil : « <em>Il s’agit d’observer comment des conservatismes extrêmes peuvent s'installer dans ce pays comme dans d'autres régions du monde. Le problème ne tient pas seulement au langage que Jair Bolsonaro utilise, mais à son cabinet, qui n'a rien d'égalitaire</em> ». </p>
<p class="rtejustify">«<em> L’état de grâce de Jair Bolsonaro va être de courte durée </em>», a analysé Geraldo Alckmin, gouverneur de l’Etat de Sao Paulo depuis 2001, arrivé à la tête du Parti social démocrate du Brésil en deuxième position lors de la Présidentielle de 2006. « <em>Je vois cependant la possibilité d'un cycle de croissance plus forte, parce que l'inflation est basse, de même que les taux d'intérêt</em> », a-t-il poursuivi. Cette figure politique a estimé que « <em>le nouveau gouvernement donne la priorité à la corporation et non au parti politique, avec le lobby de l’armement, les agriculteurs, les évangélistes, etc… c’est toutes ces corporations qui sont mises en avant et non pas l’intérêt général</em> ». </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>Entre les corporatismes et les églises évangéliques</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Alfredo Valladão a, de son côté, rappelé que les électeurs de gauche se trouvent dans les régions où les programmes sociaux sont les plus importants, tels que Borsa Familia. Il a pointé un facteur important : « <em>A la périphérie des grandes villes, les classes moyennes qui ont émergé sous le gouvernement de Lula ces dernières années et qui se sentent menacées sont en grande partie membres des églises évangélistes. Ces dernières ont une nouvelle théorie : la théologie de la prospérité, sans Etat mais avec le succès individuel, la méritocratie et l’entrepreneuriat. Ces gens sont allés de la gauche vers la droite</em> ». Ce phénomène ne donne pas pour autant les pleins pouvoirs au nouveau président ultra-libéral. « <em>À l’intérieur du congrès, Bolsanaro n’est pas si puissant</em>» ,<em> </em>selon Alfredo Valladão qui considère que<em> </em>« <em>pour tout ce qu'il voudra faire, il devra inventer une coalition, vote par vote, individu par individu</em> ». </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Les fondamentaux n’en restent pas moins solides, a estimé Geraldo Ackmin : « <em>La démocratie au Brésil est bien vivante, le débat existe avec un multipartisme vivant. D'autres choses me préoccupent, comme la politique extérieure du nouveau gouvernement sur le Pacte global sur la migration notamment, face à un monde plus riche et plus inégal. Le Brésil est un pays d'immigrants. Sao Paulo est la ville où les Japonais parlent portugais avec un accent italien. Nous devons avoir un Pacte global sur la migration. Nous ne sommes obligés à rien, mais c'est une question de valeurs </em>». Bolsonaro ne va pas « <em>se jeter dans les bras de Trump, car la réalité est que le Brésil échange plus avec la Chine </em>». Le multilatéralisme mis à mal par le président des Etats-Unis ne paraît donc pas menacé par le Brésil, qui sera contraint de rester membre de l’Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) et du Mercosur. </p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-01-21T00:00:00+01:00">Monday, January 21, 2019</span>Sabine Cessouhttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/atlantic-dialogues-2018-pourquoi-il-faut-relativiser-l%25E2%2580%2599impact-de-l%25E2%2580%2599%25C3%25A9lection-de-jair%22%3Eview%3C/a%3EThe Dawn of a New Erahttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/dawn-new-era%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E
Title : The Dawn of a New Era<br />
Posted on : <span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-01-22T00:00:00+01:00">Tuesday, January 22, 2019</span><br />
Author : Helmut Sorge<br />
Related program : Geopolitics and International Relations<br />
Description : <p class="rtejustify">Bénédicte Savoy, who documented her enthusiasm in <em>Le Monde,</em> was certainly biased —“they say that youth is the time of courage,” she wrote, because in two minutes and 35 seconds, on November 28<sup>th</sup> 2017, France’s President, Emmanuel Macron, swept aside several decades of official French museum policy. He did it publicly, in the crowded lecture theater of Ouagadougou University, in front of several hundred students, under the gaze of Burkina Faso’s president, Roch Kaboré, and the cameras of the news channel France 24. He did it in the name of youth, Madame Savoy insists (herself 46 years old, professor at the Collège de France, and chair of the department of modern art history at the Technical University in Berlin) since the president evoked youth seven times in his speech: “I am from a generation of the French people for whom the crimes of European colonialism are undeniable and make up part of our history.” In the next five years, Emmanuel Macron promised, “I want the conditions to be created for the temporary or permanent restitution of African patrimony to Africa.” In addition, the enthusiastic professor Bénédicte Savoy would have a role to play, faced with a historic challenge no one has ever dared before her. The time has come to write history, another chapter.</p>
<br />
<p class="rtejustify">A revolution? Almost. Restitution as recognition of colonial evil, although Macron only considered sub-Saharan Africa, neglecting other former French colonies of the Maghreb, not to mention Asian countries like Cambodia and Laos. Their theft of identity, their souls exploited, their memory, and past embedded in art --gone to the West... Or the North. Africa’s traditions, its artifacts, history, looted and imprisoned in museums. Admired by people in distant countries, home of plundering people. African artifacts shelved in splendid air-conditioned buildings, captured like elephants and rhinos in a zoo. No feeling of guilt by the masses. Hardly any sorrow for theft. No remorse. Cultural slavery as a symbol of defeat. History is not a novice in these matters--soldiers as far back as AD70, Roman legions, plundered the temple of Jerusalem and carrying off a large six-pronged menorah. During the Thirty Year War, in 1622, the University of Heidelberg in Germany saw its famous collection of books stolen by the Bavarian’s -- it took 200 years until they were returned. The Treaty of Versailles of 1919 finally allowed France to recover flags, archives and works of art taken by Germany 50 years earlier (<a href="https://ial.uk.com/law-restitution-and-the-benin-bronzes/" target="_blank">Alexander Herman, 2018, Institute of Art &amp; Law</a>). </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Africa is part of an evil history. The colonialists reducing proud cultures to muted slaves, adopting looting as privilege of the assumed superior race. Plunder of dignity and culture began 1830, the year France seized Algiers, only minutes ago in the history of time. The study, coauthored by Bénédicte Savoy, proposing restitution of African artifacts controlled by France, and published in November 2018, extends to 1960, the year generally understood to mark the end of French colonial interest in Africa. Belgium, France, Germany, Britain, Spain, Portugal, Italy were accomplices and colonial competitors, glorifying their acquisitions in sumptuous museums. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">From the British museum (which has more than 200,000 African objects) to the Weltmuseum in Vienna (37,000 African objects), or the just-reopened, and splendidly restored, “Africa Museum” near Brussels (with 180,000 African objects), the Berlin Humboldt Forum (75,000), as well as France’s leading ethnographic museum, not to forget the Quai Branly-Jacques Chirac museum in Paris (70,000 African objects), [it is] “a family affair, if you wish,” wrote professor Bénédicte Savoy, “where aesthetic curiosity, scientific interests, military expeditions, commercial networks and opportunities of all kinds, contributed to the justification for domination and national rivalries” (<a href="https://www.theartnewspaper.com/comment/the-restitution-revolution-begins" target="_blank">“The restitution revolution begins,” The Art Newspaper, 2018</a>). </p>
<p class="rtejustify">After Macron’s speech and the publication of the report, more than 80 scholars, art historians, ethnologists, and historians called on the German government to create a central institute in Berlin to coordinate research, museum work and policy, in addressing colonial history and handling colonial-era heritage in public collections. This debate, the scholars stated, “<em>should not be limited to demands for restitution or reparations</em>.” They added: <br />
“<em>We should seize the opportunity. The discussions over these objects offers to rescue, from oblivion, a centuries-old common history, one that is in many ways brutal and violent, and to take responsibility for this entangled history in the present and future. It presents a unique opportunity to redefine and create a sustainable basis for relationships with countries and societies in Africa, Oceania, Asia, Australia and the Americas, founded on a new view of common colonial history</em>” (<a href="https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/scholars-call-for-berlin-centre-on-colonial-era-heritage" target="_blank">Hickley, The Art Newspaper, 2018</a>). </p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>50 Years of Negotiations</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">The mere word “restitution,” observed Bénédicte Savoy, sparks an “almost kneejerk defensiveness and withdrawal.” Savoy further adds [that] “President Francois Mitterrand publicly demonstrated this in 1994 when, while thanking Chancellor Helmut Kohl for Germany’s restitution of 27 French paintings stolen by the Nazis during the Second World War, he declared: ‘Curators in our countries, those who lead our major museums, must be feeling a certain unease this evening: what if such acts become common place?’” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">“No one in France has forgotten the trench warfare conducted by curators at the <em>Bibliothèque Nationale de France </em>(National Library of France) in 2010 when the then-President, Nicolas Sarkozy, ordered the return to South Korea of nearly 300 precious manuscripts deriving from a bloody French Army expedition in 1866,” further explained Savoy in her article, “<a href="https://www.theartnewspaper.com/comment/the-restitution-revolution-begins" target="_blank">The restitution revolution begins</a>” (<a href="https://www.theartnewspaper.com/comment/the-restitution-revolution-begins" target="_blank">The Art Newspaper, 2018</a>). </p>
<p class="rtejustify">“No one in Italy,” writes the historian in the article that was also published by Le Monde, “has forgotten the 50 years of negotiations it took before the return to Ethiopia of the Axum obelisk, seized by Benito Mussolini in 1937. And no one in Berlin wants to return the massive fossilized skeleton of the world’s biggest dinosaur, Brachiosaurus brancai, to Tanzania, where it was taken in 1912 from territories then under the protectorate of the Reich” (<a href="https://www.theartnewspaper.com/comment/the-restitution-revolution-begins" target="_blank">The Art Newspaper, 2018</a>).</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Apparently, the Africans have given up the battle with Berlin, accepting that the dinosaurian belongs to the world, the global community. The Queen Nefertiti bust, the famous limestone sculpture crafted probably in 1345 BC, had been uncovered and taken from Egypt by a German archaeological team more than a hundred years ago. The statue of the Great Royal Wife of Egyptian pharaoh Akhenaten remains in the “Neues Museum” in Berlin, despite the Egyptian governments repeated request for its return.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>"Colonial Amnesia"</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Now, the revolution. “<em>A tectonic shift</em>,” believes professor Bénédicte Savoy, who, at times, had asked herself, with how much blood the artifacts were tainted in the years gone by. “<em>Within and without Africa</em>,” wrote the historian, “<em>those who have long called for the restitution of displaced heritage, are seeing the dawn of a new era</em>.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Not with one word did Madame Savoy mention, that she, and the Senegalese writer and economics professor Felwine Sarr, are responsible for sleepless nights of museum directors and antique dealers worldwide, suddenly challenged to part with their, often, illegally obtained artifacts. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">“Curators and trustees of the world’s great museums,” reports Philip Stephens in <em>Financial Times</em> (in a typical understatement), “are in the state of some agitation” (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0f48fa90-3cc9-11e8-b7e0-52972418fec4" target="_blank">“The west’s great museums should return their looted treasures,” 2018</a>). After Macron’s promise in Ouagadougou, the French government had asked the professors to study the thorny subject “<strong>RESTITUTION</strong>,” which has been debated through decades, without real honesty nor determination. Now, the 190-page Savoy/Sarr report “<em>comes as a wrecking ball to the quaint and tranquil world of ethnography and anthropological museology</em>,” as declared by Alexander Herman, assistant director of the Institute of Art and Law, an educational organization in Britain. Finally, he should have added, finally justice may be served. The study, “Toward a New Relational Ethics,” reported Art News writer, Naomi Rea, “has been met with horror” by some French museums and gallery directors, who fear the report, supported by the Macron government, “<em>will open a ‘Pandora’s box’ of restitution claims that will empty French museums of their treasures</em>.”</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>“Museums should not be Hostage to the Painful History of Colonization”</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">“In Berlin, Macron’s restitution speech has fueled a heated debate about ‘<strong><em>the colonial amnesia</em></strong>’ that seems to have affected the planners of the Humboldt Forum, which, from this year on, “is due to house the ethnographic collections of the former Prussian state” (<a href="https://www.theartnewspaper.com/comment/the-restitution-revolution-begins" target="_blank">Savoy, The Art Newspaper, 2018</a>). In April 2018, the German Lost Art Foundation, established to support investigations of Nazi looted art, announced that it would expand its mandate to include artifacts from former colonies (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/european-museums-may-loan-back-some-works-stolen-from-former-colonies/2018/08/08/ea0d8c16-95c2-11e8-818b-e9b7348cd87d_story.html?utm_term=.04bb3dc5b745" target="_blank">McAuley &amp; Noack, Washington Post, 2018</a>). For this year, Berlin has set aside 3.5 million dollars to help museums determine the origins of possible illegal or illegitimate artifacts. To identify ownership, legally acquired art objects, to determine which exhibit has been looted by armies, stolen by diplomats or received as gifts, seems an almost impossible task. The word restitution in itself did “not scandalize” Stéphane Martin, president of the <em>Quai Branly-Jacques Chirac</em> Museum in Paris, whose institution is threatened by considerable losses of African artifacts, but he argued “<em>museums should not be hostage to the painful history of colonization</em>.”</p>
<p class="rtejustify">The French Presidency ordered the return, “without delay,” of 26 valuable works plundered by the French Army in 1892 and claimed by the authorities in Benin. The task to prepare the artifacts for restitution was forced upon the unfortunate director of the museum, Monsieur Martin. The small West African country of Benin, formerly Dahomey, was home of the Kingdom of Abomey (1600 -1894) and priceless wealth. Yet, instead of sitting in the capital of Porto-Novo, the Throne of King Glele, from 1858, is fascinating visitors of the museum near the Seine. As explained by Farah Nayeri, [the African artifiacts and objects in question were] “seized when the French colonial forces ransacked the capital of the 300 year-old Kingdom of Dahomey, they were royal treasures that the fleeing king left behind: statues, thrones, and even the carved polychrome doors of his palace,” (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/27/arts/design/macron-report-restitution-precedent.html" target="_blank">New York Times, “Return of African Artifacts Sets a Tricky Precedent for Europe’s Museums,” 2018</a>). Indeed, during the Maqdala expedition by the British Army into Abyssinia, 1,868 the soldiers of her Royal Highness, Victoria, confiscated (stole) the holiest book of the nation, the <em>Kebra Nagast</em>. Four years later, it was returned from the British museum, upon the order of the British government, with support of the queen herself. She was not amused by the theft -- [making her] one of the few of her generation of citizens.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>Only Fractions of its Plundered Greatness</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">Sure enough, immediately after Macron’s speech and the contagious report, other African nations claimed ownership of its stolen art—the Quai Branly museum, alone, houses 2,281 ethnographic artifacts identified of being of Senegalese origin. Again, the French Presidency has decided to return, as soon as possible, to the former colony, symbolic reparations of its national heritage. And later, after shifting through the objects, more would be sent back to the black continent. Culture minister Abdou Latif Coulibaly: “We are ready to find solutions with France. But if 10,000 pieces are identified in the collections, we are asking for all 10,000.”</p>
<p class="rtejustify">The Ivory Coast’s culture minister, Maurice Bandanan, on his part, has prepared a list of 148 works housed in French institutions to be returned this year. On top of the list [is] a ceremonial drum from the Abidjan region currently displayed at the Quai Branly museum.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Within the first three months of this year, Emmanuel Macron will invite African and European leaders, and the representatives of former colonial powers, and African government representatives to search for solutions to the entangled problems of ownership and restitution of about half a million artifacts, reflecting the spirit and the soul of suffering Africa. 95 percent of the continent’s patrimony is admired around the globe; the Ivory Coast alone traced lost artifacts to 50 nations. Until today, the people of Africa can admire the creations of their ancestors on TV shows, produced by <em>National Geographic</em>—if these folks are connected to electricity or a cell phone.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">The greatness, the talent of Africa’s artists has disappeared from Africa’s reality, its cultural history erased out of the national consciousness, these surprising creations, forms, colors and figures, inspired by ghosts, or their Gods, fog-covered jungles, the roar of lions, the leaves of gigantic trees and unreal waterfalls.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">For years, European museum directors argued against restitution by pointing to the lack of adequate museum structures in Africa. No more ! Benin’s President, Patrice Talon, has approved the sites for five museums that will open next year to honor the King of Abomey and the Amazons, the all-female regiment in Dahomey.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">Furthermore, a museum of “Black Civilization” opened in December in Dakar, designed by Chinese government architects, built with Chinese funds, estimated at 30 million dollars. The director of the Museum of Civilization of the Ivory Coast, Dr. Silvie Memel Kassi admitted, “<em>it was not a bad thing in itself that they were preserved and indexed in France</em>,” but once the new museum building in construction is completed, “<em>we could start talking about a definite restitution. The Ivory Coast wants to have access to these objects, because they are a memory.</em>”</p>
<p class="rtejustify">European museums will certainly resist any empty spaces in their Africa departments, and most probably, will propose commissions, long-term loans and joint custody agreements. The burden of proving legal ownership, would be a bureaucratic nightmare. Museums are often underfinanced and over stretched, forced like zoos to defend their <em>raison d’etre</em> in our modern world. The process of returning <strong>ALL</strong> looted items, would cost a fortune—insurance, transport, lawyers, storage space... Air-conditioned museums.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">“<em>Roman conquerors sent entire obelisks back home in purpose-built ships. Countless pieces of Egypt’s past were sent to cultural centers abroad by means of gift, trade and coercion. Foreign archaeologists received a portion of the artifacts found in their excavations through an official arrangement with Egyptian authorities known as “partage” (or sharing). Travelers bought antiquities from licensed dealers in Cairo, Luxor and elsewhere</em>,” reported Tom Mueller in National Geographic (<a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2016/06/looting-ancient-blood-antiquities/" target="_blank">“How Tomb Raiders are Stealing Our History,” 2016</a>), before further adding [that]: <em>“Such transactions often went undocumented because antiquities were widely considered personal possessions. Though laws already existed to protect antiquities, “the modern concepts of cultural property-and looting-were still evolving</em>.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">“These are complicated histories and a transparent focus on the provenance of objects is indispensable,” declared the British Museum. The London-based institution has already committed to lending objects to Benin’s planned new Royal Museum on a rotary basis. “We need to use the extraordinary collections in museums to re-write the narrative of a one-sided history to a shared equitable and collaborative one. The British Museum is ready to play part in that.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">In April of last year though, the Victoria &amp; Albert Museum put on a display of items appropriated (looted) by British forces after the Battle of Maqdala, in what was then Abyssinia. The Ethiopian government wants to recover the exquisite items taken from the defeated emperor Tewodros II -- among them a stunning gold crown and chalice, royal jewelry and religious vestments (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0f48fa90-3cc9-11e8-b7e0-52972418fec4" target="_blank">Stephens, Financial Times, 2018</a>). The museum refuses to return the looted valuables, historic items for the African nation. “<em>Why this opposition</em>?” asked the <em>Financial Times</em>, and believes to have found the answer:“<em>history is double edged.</em>” No one would stand against the restitution of property stolen by, say, the German armies in Europe during the Second World War--but riches seized in Africa nearly a century earlier?</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>Move into the Future without Reference to the Past</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">But, as Philip Stephens explains, “<em>beyond the sense of racism and arrogance of a diminishing power the ground is shifting. A history’s perspective on Europe’s empire loses some of the rose tint. Demands for the repatriation of cultural artifacts seized by the colonial marauders look harder to resist</em>” (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0f48fa90-3cc9-11e8-b7e0-52972418fec4" target="_blank">“The west’s great museums should return their looted treasures,” Financial Times, 2018</a>).</p>
<p class="rtejustify">For once, Emmanuel Macron, who is trying to survive a deep political, and identity, crisis, challenged by the so-called yellow vests, a kind of open, yet underground opposition, has, at least, sensed the wind of time – a historic void in Africa, in Europe’s approach towards colonial history. The unacceptable fact that Africa has to move into the future, without references of the (stolen) past. Restitution would allow the people to confront their history, which others, at far away places are admiring. Paris, New York, London. Berlin. Brussels. Now Africa is rejoicing, confronted (after restitution of its lost art) with its cultural past it can create the future. Patience is needed though -- the international rules regarding the treatment of cultural property, knows Alexander Herman of the Institute of Art and Law, are “<em>complex</em>.” Today, there are a host of international conventions and agreements that protect cultural property and heritage in times of both of peace and war. But what about the past? </p>
<p class="rtejustify">For centuries, conflict was wrapped up with pillaging of sacred places… [But] 1815 brought change. The year Napoleon was defeated and the victorious Allies had to face a tough question as Alexander Herman puts it, “<em>what was to be done with all the works of art Napoleon had taken from the princely states during his victorious march across the continent? Should they remain at the Louvre, the museum that had become the depository of the French Empire? The answer was an emphatic no</em>” (<a href="https://www.theartnewspaper.com/comment/law-restitution-and-the-benin-bronzes" target="_blank">The Art Newspaper, 2018</a>). Indeed, the British stated, “<em>the works were taken by the French contrary to every principle of justice, and to the usages of modern warfare and should be promptly returned</em>.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">“<em>Not everything</em>” noted the British expert, “<em>was restituted because the canny Louvre director had spirited a number of pieces off to provincial museums, where the Allies could not find them</em>” (<a href="https://www.theartnewspaper.com/comment/law-restitution-and-the-benin-bronzes" target="_blank">Alexander Herman, The Art Newspaper, 2018</a>). More than half of the loot was discovered and returned to the owners—The Laocoön and His Sons (<em>Gruppo del Laocoonte</em>), one of the most famous ancient sculptures, excavated in 1506 to the Vatican, the <em>Medici Venus </em>to Florence, and a collection of ten Cranach’s, works by the German renaissance painter, to Prussia. Even though the returns were not provided by treaty or convention, the principle of restitution can be seen from that point forward. One hundred years later, Africa is allowed to hope to recover its soul and history. The looting, though, goes on, and history is attacked each day. Digging up the past for profit, opening up tombs in Egypt, or sarcophagi, robbing jewelry as well as mummified bodies, reliefs from Iraq, Syria and Yemen, has been a profession for thousands of years, stated <em>National Geographic</em>, which reported two years ago that “the trade in stolen treasures is booming around the world”— African art included. Grave robbing in Egypt is as old as the Pharaohs. In fact, the tomb of Ramesses V and Ramesses VI in the Valley of the Kings near Luxor was plundered about 3,000 years ago.</p>
<p class="rtejustify">For centuries, conflict was wrapped up with pillaging of sacred places… [But] 1815 brought change. The year Napoleon was defeated and the victorious Allies had to face a tough question as Alexander Herman puts it, “what was to be done with all the works of art Napoleon had taken from the princely states during his victorious march across the continent? Should they remain at the Louvre, the museum that had become the depository of the French Empire? The answer was an emphatic no” (<a href="https://www.theartnewspaper.com/comment/law-restitution-and-the-benin-bronzes" target="_blank">The Art Newspaper, 2018</a>). Indeed, the British stated, “the works were taken by the French contrary to every principle of justice, and to the usages of modern warfare and should be promptly returned.” </p>
<p class="rtejustify">“Not everything” noted the British expert, “was restituted because the canny Louvre director had spirited a number of pieces off to provincial museums, where the Allies could not find them” (<a href="https://www.theartnewspaper.com/comment/law-restitution-and-the-benin-bronzes" target="_blank">Alexander Herman, The Art Newspaper, 2018</a>). More than half of the loot was discovered and returned to the owners—The Laocoön and His Sons (<em>Gruppo del Laocoonte</em>), one of the most famous ancient sculptures, excavated in 1506 to the Vatican, the <em>Medici Venus</em> to Florence, and a collection of ten Cranach’s, works by the German renaissance painter, to Prussia. Even though the returns were not provided by treaty or convention, the principle of restitution can be seen from that point forward. One hundred years later, Africa is allowed to hope to recover its soul and history. The looting, though, goes on, and history is attacked each day. Digging up the past for profit, opening up tombs in Egypt, or sarcophagi, robbing jewelry as well as mummified bodies, reliefs from Iraq, Syria and Yemen, has been a profession for thousands of years, stated <em>National Geographic</em>, which reported two years ago that “the trade in stolen treasures is booming around the world”— African art included. Grave robbing in Egypt is as old as the Pharaohs. In fact, the tomb of Ramesses V and Ramesses VI in the Valley of the Kings near Luxor was plundered about 3,000 years ago.</p>
<p class="rtejustify"><strong>Execution by Impalement 1113 BC</strong></p>
<p class="rtejustify">The drum beat of war and turmoil in many antiquity-rich countries, culminating in the sack of ancient Mesopotamia by ISIS, has sparked concern that the antiquities trade is helping fund terrorism. The looting of colonial armies has faded with history, but now a new generation digs and steals history. Many Egyptians, even today, pillage their past to survive in the present. Archeologists blame the antiquities trade for looting, reported Tom Mueller, claiming that many artifacts on the market, just like the good old colonial days, were stolen. Collectors, dealers, and many museum curators counter that most antiquities sales are legal. </p>
<p class="rtejustify">Some argue, just like colleagues from prestigious museums defending their African art against accusations and restitution, that the “ultimate goal of safeguarding mankind’s artistic heritage” obliges them to “rescue” antiquities from unstable countries, even if it means buying it from looters. In fact, the earliest known trial for looters in Egypt took place in Thebes in 1113 BC. A gang of looters, led by an enterprising quarryman named Amenpanefer, pillaged rock cut tombs. The quarryman and his accomplices were convicted and probably executed by impalement. Meaning penetration by an object, a pole, or a spear.</p>
<span class="date-display-single" property="dc:date" datatype="xsd:dateTime" content="2019-01-22T00:00:00+01:00">Tuesday, January 22, 2019</span>Helmut Sorgehttp://www.ocppc.ma/%3Ca%20href%3D%22/opinion/dawn-new-era%22%3Eview%3C/a%3E