Election Day 2012: Record number of registered voters, long ballot, next president

A record number of registered voters who haven't mailed in ballots could trudge to polls across Southern California on Tuesday for a nailbiter of an election.

But few expect them to nudge the neck-and-neck presidential showdown between President Barack Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney, whose victory may be decided by other key states.

Instead, residents will for the first time choose leaders from top-two primary candidates - including fierce combatants within their own party - drawn from new citizen-defined districts. This has made for at least 10 competitive House races.

They'll also chart a vital course for the cash-strapped Golden State. This means deciding among 11 state ballot measures on the fate of the death penalty, three-strikes prison terms, the political future of organized labor and billions of dollars budgeted for K-college education and more.

"What's interesting this year is our ballot is dominated by statewide ballot measures that could impact the future of California," said Dean C. Logan, Los Angeles County registrar-recorder/county clerk.

To influence votes, what appears to be a record amount of campaign money has rained down from out of state, election officials and analysts say, much of it drawn from newly legal special-interest, super-PAC funds.

By the time weary voters reach the bottom of their tickets Tuesday, they'll have chosen among a slew of local tax measures and issues - from porn condoms to transit taxes in Los Angeles County to a sex scandal-related recall in San Fernando to a soda tax in El Monte to the first local tax in La Mirada history.

"In California, we have a ton of ballot initiatives," said Lawrence Becker, a political science professor at California State Northridge. "Too many. Too much confusion.

Prop. 32 would strip unions and corporations from spending money deducted from paychecks for politics. While it wouldn't affect corporations, it could end an era of labor clout in California.

While unions spent millions of dollars to support Prop. 30 and fight Prop. 32, millions more has been spent in opposition, much of it from out of state.

One $11-million check came from the Arizona-based Americans for Responsible Leadership, a clandestine nonprofit that appealed a California court order to disclose its members.

The Sunlight Foundation, a nonpartisan group that tracks political spending, reports $36 million in outside contributions was spent on House races in California, more than any other state.

But both the Secretary of State and the Fair Political Practices Commission say they have not tallied out-of-state independent expenditures spent on legislative or ballot measures.

"It is a pain to get this information; we only have 70 employees," said FPPC Chairman Ann Ravel. "We think its a record amount of money."

One thing was clear: no matter how much is spent in California to boost Romney's prospects, few contend he can deliver the nation's largest state. Of those registered to vote, 43 percent were Democratic, 30 percent Republican.

That means the nation will eye election returns in nine other more evenly divided states, such as Ohio, Florida and Virginia.

The challenge may be Romney's, who so far has counted on 191 electoral votes to Obama's 237.

"If Romney can't get Ohio, he's got to have Virginia, he's got to get Wisconsin, Colorado, New Hampshire and he's got to get Nevada, too," said Martin Saiz, another CSUN political scientist. "If he loses New Hampshire, he's gone."

With California out of play, some say voters will largely fight for congressional favorites or ballot measures. Some say a surge in online registrations could favor Democrats.

In six weeks leading up to the registration deadline, the number of voters in California surpassed 18 million, a record. Of 1.4 million new voters, nearly half registered online.

In Los Angeles County, voter registrations increased 9 percent since 2008 to a record 4.7 million voters, including 90,000 who registered online in one day.

Of those, nearly 1 million were between 18 and 29. Fifty percent identified as Democrats, 22 percent as Republicans, while 19 percent declined to state.

"I think we're going to have a high turnout," Logan said. "But it may not match the (82-percent) participation level of 2008."

Some pundits say it would be the Congressional races, not the propositions, that would help drive voter turnout.

As a result of redistricting and primary election changes, at least 10 House seats are in play - which could alter the balance of power in Washington.

Voters will decide the nationally watched race between Democratic Reps. Brad Sherman and Howard Berman in the San Fernando Valley. The race turned physical last month with Sherman grabbing Berman during a debate.

It's also drawn $13 million in rival contributions, making it one of the largest Democratic potlatches in the nation.

Attacks between Republican candidates, Rep. Gary Miller and state Sen. Bob Dutton in the Inland Empire had GOP officials warning they not break an "Eleventh Commandment" never to speak ill of party members.

In San Bernardino County, two Republicans, Gregg Imus and Assemblyman Paul Cook, were both battling for a House seat by attacking big government, new taxes and illegal immigration. Both support the right to bear arms.

Two other career politicians, Republican state Sen. Tony Strickland and Democratic Assemblywoman Julia Brownley are running hard against one another to represent a newly drawn congressional district seat in Ventura County.

The Strickland-Brownley race has been a classic partisan battle involving differences over stem cell research, abortion, jobs and taxes.

"There's a lot of activity on a local level - including Berman-Sherman - that should drive more voters to the polls than any ballot measure," said Allan Hoffenblum, co-founder of the nonpartisan California Target Book, which analyzes political horseraces.

"Nobody's going around yakking about propositions. They have opinions, but it's not driving them to the polls. You go to the polls if there's some guy taking away your gun."

Although young people make up the most new voters, some say apathy may diminish their turnout, especially among college students who have the most to lose if measures such as Prop. 30 fail.

"Apathy is epidemic at our school," said Ty Halen, 20, of West Hills, president of the CSUN Young Democrats, who hopes to become the nation's first openly gay president. "People are frustrated. Obama came in, everybody expected a miracle.

"For the most part, (students) have given up."

In the Inland Empire, where joblessness still surpasses 14 percent in some cities, others say students are more active.

"Currently, it is a busy time for college students," said Jeremy Smith, 24, political director for the Inland Valley Young Republicans, of San Bernardino County. "But it is a presidential election. They're concerned about jobs and the economy.

"I think they're getting more involved than ever. If they're not absentee voters, they'll be going to the polls."