Posted!

Join the Conversation

Comments

Welcome to our new and improved comments, which are for subscribers only.
This is a test to see whether we can improve the experience for you.
You do not need a Facebook profile to participate.

You will need to register before adding a comment.
Typed comments will be lost if you are not logged in.

Please be polite.
It's OK to disagree with someone's ideas, but personal attacks, insults, threats, hate speech, advocating violence and other violations can result in a ban.
If you see comments in violation of our community guidelines, please report them.

El Niño is holding strong and hopes are mounting it will help bring a big winter to drought-hammered Nevada and the Sierra.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center Thursday released its latest monthly update on an El Niño that has been building for months, with experts agreeing it’s all but certain a climate phenomenon that can have big impacts on winter weather will be a strong one lasting until next spring.

“Maybe the biggest surprise is that there isn’t one. It’s being fairly well-behaved,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center.

“Everything is continuing on track,” Halpert said.

Characterized by warm surface ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and shifting wind patterns, El Niños can bring heavy winters to Southern and Central California. The strongest – and this is exactly that – can help carry big storms far enough north to produce wet winters for the Reno-Tahoe area, as occurred during that last major El Niño in 1997-98 and previously in 1982-83.

There’s no doubt this El Niño is being hyped by many but it’s also a chief topic of conversation among customers at Bobo’s Mogul Mouse ski shop in Reno, where manager Pat Parraguirre credits it for an uptick in business, particularly the sale of powder skis.

“That’s what everybody is talking about,” Parraguirre said. “We hope we just get pounded.”

After continuing drought has produced four dry winters in a row, Parraguirre figures the region is due for a good winter based on history and the law of averages. El Niño, however, is providing a little extra hope.

Predicting an El Niño’s impact on the Reno-Tahoe area is tough because the region lies in a transition zone where an El Niño may or may not be significant. Past El Niño winters have been wet, dry and normal with no clear pattern.

Long-range forecasts released last month by the Climate Prediction Center provided room for optimism, boosting the chances for above-normal precipitation in the area. The next long-range forecast will be released next week.

“That will be the thing we start looking for as we get into the winter for sure,” Halpert said. “Maybe Reno will get into that slight shift to the north.”