The Deal

This week on Four Corners, The Deal . The inside story of the historic deal that created Australia's first national minority government in seven decades. Reporter Sarah Ferguson goes behind the scenes for history in the making.

The three Independents Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Bob Katter gave Four Corners unprecedented access for 17 days as they decided who would be Australia's next Prime Minister. Each day they disappeared behind the closed doors of their offices, Four Corners was there.

Over long days and nights, the Independents put the character of the leaders to the test. We're there as offers and counter offers arrive on their desks and when Tony Abbott makes a late night visit with his bid in crisis over the costings.

We witness the dynamics of the trio evolve and finally unravel. How close were the three amigos?

Against the backdrop of an increasingly impatient media and public, the clock counts down to the final days. Had they already decided? How close did they come to backing the coalition? What actually made the two swing their vote behind Labor? 17 days of pressure and exhaustion culminates in 24 hours of high drama.

The result is must see television.

-- The Deal goes to air on Four Corners on Monday 4th October at 8.30 pm on ABC 1. It is replayed on Tuesday 5th October at 11.35 pm. You can also see a replay on Saturday that week at 2.00 pm on ABC 24. The program is also available on abc.net.au/iview and the web at abc.net.au/4corners.

Extensive additional material will be also available on this website following the program, including interviews with the Independents where they reflect upon their individual decisions and what the future holds for them.

PROGRAM CREDITS

Reporter: Sarah Ferguson

Producer: Morag Ramsay

Editor: Michael Nettleship

Camera: Murray Gill

Sound: Geoffrey Krix

Research: Caro Meldrum-Hanna

Editor Assistant: James Braye

Archive: Michelle Baddiley

Graphics: Peta Whitmee

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Additional Reading

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RELATED NEWS AND OPINION

No deal | 7.30 Report | 23 September 2010

View a 7.30 Report segment following Abbott's announcement that he could no longer honour a deal to allow the speaker of the House of Representatives to be paired as part of parliamentary reform.

Lord Stern calls for political will to act on climate change | PM | 1 September 2010

Listen and read Mark Colvin's interview with Lord Stern.

Government could be decided quickly | Lateline | 23 August 2010

Constitutional experts say there are clear and quick guidelines to resolve Australia's first hung parliament since 1940.

Australia's hung Parliament explained | ABC News | 23 August 2010

As Australia stares down the barrel of a hung Parliament, here's a look at what it all means.

Balance lies with gang of five | ABC News | 22 August 2010

Australia's political future hangs in the hands of a disparate gang of four independents and one Greens MP.

Lord Stern on climate change | National Press Club | 3 September 2010

Read more about Lord Sterns view on the climate change debate in Australia, from his speech at the National Press Club on the 3 September 2010.

THE INDEPENDENTS

Bob Katter - Independent MP for Kennedy, QLD

www.bobkatter.com.au/

Rob Oakeshott - Independent MP for Lyne, NSW

roboakeshott.com/

Tony Windsor - Independent MP for New England, NSW

www.tonywindsor.com.au/

Andrew Wilkie - Independent candidate for Denison, Tasmania

http://www.andrewwilkie.org/

WATCH RELATED 4 CORNERS PROGRAMS

What's Yours is Mine | 7 June 2010

The battle between government and mining groups over the resource super profits tax.

Whatever it Takes | 16 August 2010

A critical look at one of the closest fought Federal elections in two decades.

Return to the program page for ''The Deal' .

Transcript

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SARAH FERGUSON: It's three days since the election. MP Tony Windsor is on his way to Canberra after overnighting at a modest pub in East Sydney.

Today will be his first meeting with the other independents since polling day.

TONY WINDSOR (travelling in car): My role is really about just keeping people calm and not only the people that are in, that are in the card game at the moment, but people outside that are petrified in this situation.

SARAH FERGUSON: You say this is like a card game, are you a good card player?

TONY WINDSOR: Well I used to be at school yeah, I was also a bookmaker at school.

SARAH FERGUSON: So what are the odds?

TONY WINDSOR: Um, the odds of success? Ah I'd say ah three to one on.

SARAH FERGUSON: The three independent MP's converging on Canberra look likely to hold the balance of power.

Bob Katter makes it clear he plans to make use of the sudden attention.

BOB KATTER (At airport talking to the media): No. No. You listen to me because we've had it up to here with the media. You people have given a run to every single idea known to man, except us. And we got to the stage under successive governments where every four days a farmer in Australia was committing suicide. Did you ever give us a run? No. Now that we've got a bit of power you'll be listening to us my friend, not dictating to us.

SARAH FERGUSON: The idealist, Rob Oakeshott, is pushing for cooperation between the main parties

ROBERT OAKESHOTT (talking to the press): I would hope consensus politics can at least get some airtime for the next few days.

SARAH FERGUSON: Julia Gillard had arrived in Canberra the day before.

JULIA GILLARD (At press conference): I want to assure everyone that those negotiations will be conducted diligently with integrity and properly and in good faith.

SARAH FERGUSON: While Tony Abbott was already trying to convince the independents he was ready for a new style of politics.

TONY ABBOTT (At press conference): I think we can have a kinder, gentler polity. I think we can be a more collegial polity than we've been. I think that the spirit of Parliament has been needlessly confrontational.

SARAH FERGUSON: Tony Windsor isn't persuaded by Abbott's conversion.

(To Tony Windsor in his office): Is that the Tony Abbott that you know?

TONY WINDSOR: No. No I don't and I think Tony Abbott's body language, ah, suggests that they're the words that he's got to say, rather than the words he actually believes.

(Robert Oakeshott walks into Tony Windsor's office)

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: Tony Windsor!

TONY WINDSOR: Mr Oakeshott.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: Did you see our third arrival?

TONY WINDSOR: Yes he was very good! Very good!

SARAH FERGUSON: After his outburst at the airport, Bob Katter is the last to arrive.

TONY WINDSOR: Ah welcome, Bob.

(They greet Bob Katter, congratulating each other)

SARAH FERGUSON: Oakeshott is on the phone trying to sell his idea of a unity government to Tony Abbott.

BOB KATTER: Well what are we doing? Can Oakeshott throw his phone away? Or will we throw him away. Hey Buckshot!

ROBERT OAKESHOTT (Shaking hands with Bob Katter): Congratulations.

BOB KATTER: Fantastic result.

SARAH FERGUSON: The three amigos, as the media begins calling them, had worked closely together in the previous parliament. They immediately set out a common plan of attack.

TONY WINDSOR: We go down we meet, the press come in get their photos, then we clear the room and do our stuff.

(Bob Katter jots key words into his note book)

Then sometime after that we try to have a courtesy meeting with Gillard and Abbott. Sound alright?

SARAH FERGUSON: The media are brought in to photograph the independents together, presenting a united front to both leaders.

(To the three independents): Do you think that the leaders would rather deal with you individually? Will they try and pick you off? Would they prefer to deal with you separately?

TONY WINDSOR: I think if we were separated they'd, there'd be attempts to ah, weaken the arrangement.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: If we were all elected brand new on Saturday and found ourselves here, this would be a mess.

SARAH FERGUSON: Is there a key issue that is for all three of you, at the top of the list?

TONY WINDSOR: Stability.

SARAH FERGUSON: And what does that mean?

TONY WINDSOR: Well it ah, endorsing a government that can actually serve ah, out the majority of its term.

BOB KATTER: Without that we're all wasting our time sitting here if they're going to call an election in three months, why are we wasting our time. Whatever they promise us they won't deliver. They'd cut our throats at the first opportunity.

ONSCREEN CAPTION: 25 August. Four days since the election.

SARAH FERGUSON: A public campaign to influence the independent's decision is under way on talk back radio.

WOMAN (On phone, responding): We have a new coalition in this country. The little comrades of the Labor party and the Greens are now araldited together, the commie coalition.

(Tony Windsor talks with Bob Katter in Windsor's office)

TONY WINDSOR: I did some radio this morning with Steve Price and Andrew Bolt. I was explaining to them, look this is a pack of cards we've been dealt, we're trying to deal with it. Everybody, just have a sleep for a while. We'll work through it. We've got to lift our sights above whose preferences were who, they'll all come into play, they'll all be part of the mix, but the main game is stability. And even he just, I could hear him waffling on afterwards...

BOB KATTER (walking out of the office): I don't agree the main game is stability, you know. (Laughter)

TONY WINDSOR: Is there someone else here? (More laughter) Well that was an important point I just made (laughing). And I'm glad I made it.

The independents' first move is to put a list of formal requests to both leaders.

ROB OAKESHOTT (meeting with the other independents): The first one's the critical one. We seek access to information under the caretaker conventions and seek access to economic advice from the Secretary of the Treasury, Ken Henry, Secretary of Finance, David Tune.

SARAH FERGUSON: Throughout the campaign, the coalition had refused to submit the costings of their policies to treasury. Now the independents are trying to force them to do it.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: That's the, that's the one.

TONY WINDSOR: We haven't actually got the word costing in there, have we?

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: Well we've got impact.

TONY WINDSOR: The impact and, and, yeah, but they can. Including the impact.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: Including the costings and impact.

TONY WINDSOR: Are you comfortable with that, Bob? First paragraph? Number one?

BOB KATTER: It seemed right to me, what do you want to change?

TONY WINDSOR: Well we'll just put the word costing in.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: Just putting in the word costings.

BOB KATTER: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Absolutely.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: I'll go and get all this tidied up. Okay, I'll be back in one tick.

ZITA MacGREGOR, ROBERT OAKESHOTT STAFFER: I just think we have to have an original for each of them. (Whispers) Oh I've got to get rid of that. (In full voice) Is it okay if a copy goes to Abbott or do you want an original to each of them?

SARAH FERGUSON: It's their opening gambit. As well as the costings, they want meetings with ministers and heads of departments and a commitment to parliamentary reform.

TONY WINDSOR (talking to the other independents in an elevator): We're at least part way down the road of finding out things that we need.

(Independents' Press Conference)

TONY WINDSOR: We need to establish where the budget bottom line is, what are we actually talking about here in terms of promises that were made during the election campaign by both sides.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: We need to bust a move.

(Journalists joke to each other about the phrase 'bust a move' with one of them commenting 'He's a hip man')

SARAH FERGUSON: They're due in the Prime Minister's office for their first meeting.

SARAH FERGUSON: Julia Gillard agrees in principle to allow the independents access to treasury costings of Labor policies. Tony Abbott is more wary.

After the meetings, Oakeshott and Windsor meet to compare notes.

TONY WINDSOR: I didn't pick anything up from J, ah, from Julia Gillard, ah, but Abbott he when he, he got into a few tough spots there. He [mumbles imitating Abbott] [laughter] you know he's ah gives himself away.

(Tony Windsor and Robert Oakeshott watch television)

DAVID SPEERS (on Sky News): Now the Prime Minister has just released her response to these demands from the independents.

JULIA GILLARD: My predisposition is to amend the conventions as necessary to facilitate the request of the independents. In making those amendments, obviously I would consult with Mr Abbott.

DAVID SPEERS: We're yet to hear what Tony Abbott's response will be on that, but clearly he will be under pressure to do just the same.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: (Clicks fingers) Round one!

SARAH FERGUSON: None of the independents expects a resolution that night. They plan to fly home to their electorates.

They don't know that Abbott is about to call a late press conference to reject their request.

(Tony Abbott's Press Conference)

JOURNALIST: Are you scared of what Treasury will find in your policies?

TONY ABBOTT: No, no. The point I make is that I am only too happy to give the independents full and complete access to my shadows and to Horwarth, the accounting firm which fully costed our policies.

(Tony Abbott walks out of the press conference)

SARAH FERGUSON: The ABC caught up with Bob Katter at Brisbane airport.

(Lateline, ABC TV)

TONY JONES, PRESENTER: Bob Katter, your reaction first of all to Tony Abbott's decision not to submit Coalition policies to the Treasury for costing?

BOB KATTER: Well I mean, the initial reaction, not the initial reaction, the reaction of everybody in Australia would be, you know, what's Tony got to hide here?

(End of footage)

SARAH FERGUSON: Within two days Tony Abbott is forced to reverse his decision.

Bob Katter is back his vast electorate in North Queensland.

BOB KATTER (driving): It has been terrible for me over the last fifteen years in the Federal Parliament to see people don't react to pain at all. They couldn't care less how many people in Australia commit suicide or go bankrupt and lose everything.

SARAH FERGUSON: He says he is driven in politics by the suffering in rural Australia.

BOB KATTER: I just find it difficult to sort of keep going, without having a rage in my soul.

SARAH FERGUSON: Charter Towers has been Katter's home for more than 30 years. He won the seat with 68 per cent of the vote. His constituents largely trust his judgement.

(Woman hugs Bob Katter in a shopping mall)

WOMAN: I'm always happy with Bob. We all love him.

SARAH FERGUSON: And do you mind what he decides are you going to trust him to get it right?

WOMAN: Whatever he decides. I have my views on what I would want but whatever he decides is okay with us.

MAN: There's one way I don't want to go but if he chooses that way to go then I'll know it will be the right decision.

SARAH FERGUSON: Katter insists his vote will go to the side which offers the best deal for rural Queensland.

But he's concerned about the prospect of a deal between Labor and the Greens.

BOB KATTER: I've always promoted myself as the anti-Greens member of parliament. A lot of the damage and wreckage done here has been done by the Greens mentality.

SARAH FERGUSON: What we've seen this week is Bob Brown talking about the possibility of some formal arrangement between Labor and the Greens. Can you be part of a government that is also a green government?

BOB KATTER: That would make very great difficulties.

ONSCREEN CAPTION: 30 August. Nine days since the election.

SARAH FERGUSON: The protagonists arrive back in Canberra, this time planning to stay for the week. With the seat count incomplete and the coalition ahead by just one, the independents are still in the box seat to choose the next government.

Bob Katter has brought in a new team of advisors including colleagues from his time in the Joh Bjelke Petersen government. Their first advice is to stop criticising the coalition.

BOB KATTER (On phone in car): No, I've toned down. There was a reason for that last week I wanted to get through to the people my angry and hurt and what they'd done to us but that's done now and you're dead right.

BOB KATTER: Mate, I'm going to have to take tonight off and draft up that stuff you've given me.

SARAH FERGUSON: Behind the scenes these new advisors are urging Katter to distance himself from the other independents.

BOB KATTER: We need to address the changed paradigm for, not only rural Australia, but Australia as a whole.

SARAH FERGUSON: The National Party's MPs and Senators are also in Canberra for their first meeting since the election.

WARREN TRUSS (being interviewed on TV): Well Mr Katter has been critical of me from time to time and I sometimes found it necessary to respond.

SARAH FERGUSON: The three independents all won seats previously held by the Nationals.

The history of bad blood between them has the capacity to destabilise the coalition.

(Windsor and Oakeshott are watching Warren Truss being interviewed)

TONY WINDSOR (to Oakeshott): That's an issue you know 'cos, I've had phone calls from Liberals saying this is an opportunity to wipe these guys out, you know, everybody's using their own...

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: ...agendas.

TONY WINDSOR: Yeah.

SARAH FERGUSON: Truss has clearly identified broadband to regional Australia as a defining issue for the independents and is trying to spruik the benefits of the coalition's cheaper, pared down policy.

(To the three independents): You just sat through a long press conference by the Nats. They say that they have delivered substantial achievements to the bush. Is that how you guys see it?

BOB KATTER: I, I'd like, I, I defy them to name one. That's all I'm asking. I just defy them to name one.

SARAH FERGUSON: They're also saying that they going to rely on private investment to fund national broadband into the regions. Now you've had some experience with that. What do you say to that?

TONY WINDSOR: Well they said that with, on the sale of Telstra, that ah, ah the private sector would provide into the smaller community. So it's absolute nonsense. They won't 'cos there is no money.

SARAH FERGUSON: As the week gets under way the independents are inundated with calls from special interest groups, wanting their issues placed at the top of the wish lists to the leaders.

The rural health alliance is one group they want to listen to. For these regional health professionals broadband is the key issue and only high speeds can deliver the internet health revolution they want.

JENNY MAY, CHAIR RURAL HEALTH ALLIANCE (talking to the independents): We hope we can get broadband we need it to be affordable and we need it to have reach. We'd want to be able to video conference, to get x rays digitally delivered and we'd want more than one person to able to use it at a time.

TONY WINDSOR: Have you got that written down somewhere?

JENNY MAY: We will!

SARAH FERGUSON: While their departmental briefings are about to begin, the pressure on the independents to come up with a decision is intensifying.

(To Tony Windsor): These are complicated questions that you're asking, this, the, the entire gamut of government policy. Is the country going to lose patience with you while you get all this information?

TONY WINDSOR: Well they may, ah but that won't make a lot of difference to me. Ah, I didn't ask to be put in this place. Ah, I want to make a reasoned decision. I would like ah, to think that regional Australia would be very pleased to have some regional members in this position.

ONSCREEN CAPTION: 31 August. 10 days since the election.

SARAH FERGUSON: The two party preferred vote in the election count has gone up briefly in the Coalition's favour. Some radio shock jocks and newspapers are calling it game over.

ALAN JONES (On air): Are these three independents seriously for one moment, let alone one more week, talking about delivering Australia into the hands of this lot again?

ROBERST OAKESHOTT: News Limited in particular seemed to be running a concerted campaign ah, against ah, the independents for even considering ah, striking a formal agreement with Julia Gillard and the Labor government, um and I you know we haven't made up our minds in any way, but News Limited seems to have, have made it up already.

(Lord Stern arrives in Oakeshott's office)

SARAH FERGUSON: While the media wars rage, climate change is about to enter the equation. Windsor and Oakeshott take their first meeting of the day with one of the world's leading experts, British climate economist Lord Stern.

Bob Katter is conspicuously absent.

LORD NICHOLAS STERN: I just met Penny Wong and Malcolm Turnbull.

SARAH FERGUSON: Stern has been encouraging Australia to join in a global carbon economy or risk getting get left behind.

LORD NICHOLAS STERN: You've got so many advantages in this country, you know you got so much sunshine and you got so much land. You've got such potential for reforestation than most other countries in the world.

SARAH FERGUSON: Stern urges the independents to make use of their new political power.

LORD NICHOLAS STERN: You guys are taking such important decisions. It's an exciting moment, one where I think very much as an outsider, but it looks as though Australia has so many advantages and this a moment where on this issue, you could really say 'look, we're taking a 10 or 15 year view'. This isn't the next five minutes of this politicking.

SARAH FERGUSON: Lord Stern isn't the only one bringing the message. Waiting in the lobby is Australian climate change economist Ross Garnaut.

Contrary to the public expectations of these two former Nationals, climate change proves to be one of the crucial elements in their decision.

SARAH FERGUSON: Later that evening, Tony Windsor emphasizes what a important day this was.

TONY WINDSOR: I think today may well be a day that we remember in a week or ten days time when we've finally made a decision. I think there were a number of, not only local and ah, national issues addressed today, but international issues and, you know, the consequences of long term climate change etcetera. I think we've met some ah, people who gave us some very good advice today.

ONSCREEN CAPTION: 1 September. 11 days since the election.

(Bob Katter arrives for an ABC radio interview)

REPORTER: Bob, what I'll do first off is just get a level to make sure its sounding all okay, your meeting with your meeting with Ken Henry today I think, is that right?

BOB KATTER: Yep.

REPORTER: And yesterday you had meetings with Nicholas Stern and Ross Garnaut? Is that right?

BOB KATTER: I didn't, the others did. I don't have a great admiration.

BOB KATTER: No, no. I think their positions are fairly lightweight to those two people and I most certainly respect my colleagues, they wanted to hear their viewpoint. I've heard their viewpoint on many a times and I simply disagree with them dramatically.

SARAH FERGUSON: Appearing to drive a further wedge between Bob Katter and Labor, on Wednesday morning Julia Gillard and Bob Brown sign a formal deal between the two parties.

(To Bob Katter): The news of today is the Greens and Labor signing up to a form of alliance. You said to us before that would make it more difficult for you to back a Labor Government. What do you think now?

BOB KATTER: Well we're getting information supplied to us that that's it not what it appears to be. But let there be no doubt that some of the policies by the Greens are absolutely destructive of our freedoms and North Queensland has taken the major brunt. I mean fishing, camping, shooting, um, um, boiling the billy, having a durry with your mates, going down the pub and having a few beers and talking to each other. All these things have been destroyed by the wowser brigade, the self-righteous. You know ah, um, people that manned the Spanish Inquisition and the Salem Witch Hunts.

SARAH FERGUSON: Katter's staff are typing up a list of 20 demands that his new advisors helped him draft.

MALE ADVISOR: What's that word there?

LEAH GUY, KATTER STAFFER: Electricity.

MALE ADVISOR: Is there a (inaudible) I've gotta go to?

LEAH GUY: Yep.

MALE ADVISOR: Okay.

LEAH GUY: This is on mining tax?

MALE ADVISOR: What are we saying here? What are we saying here? No mining tax, no carbon tax, no emissions tax.

FEMALE STAFFER: He just wants that?

SARAH FERGUSON: The list is ready to go to the leaders.

LEAH GUY (on the phone to Tony Abbott's office): The document is nearing completing and we are hoping to be able to hand it to Mr Abbott this evening. Just wondering if he's likely to be in his office after the independents come out of the treasury briefing?

SARAH FERGUSON: The treasury briefing begins at 4.30 pm in the Cabinet room. Treasury head, Ken Henry, briefs them first on the Global Financial Crisis.

KEN HENRY: Nobody was expecting that sort of growth to be sustained, even ah, in the absence of the global financial crisis.

SARAH FERGUSON: Our cameras are asked to leave for the key part of the meeting where treasury officials give their analysis of both sides' costings.

TONY WINDSOR: I think there's some explaining to do and that's obviously why Tony Abbott's, you know, climbing up the walls wanting to get us before, before we obvious ah, ah say anything. But I think it does indicate that they knew that there were issues here in terms of the accountability process.

SARAH FERGUSON: Could I just ask you something, Mr Abbott, since you've caught us. This is obviously a difficult night for you. Do you accept the Treasury's assumptions that, that an-and, do you accept the conclusions that Treasury have come to about the hole in the budget?

TONY ABBOTT: On Treasury's worst assumptions we still get a significant improvement to the bottom line and I would strongly defend ah, our costings, vis a vis the Treasury. I'm sure ah, they are not prepared to accept ah, some of our reasoning, but I think our think our reasoning is eminently defensible.

SARAH FERGUSON: The question is though, did you have something to hide and is that why you didn't show these costings to the independents in the first place?

TONY ABBOTT: To be honest a bit of an offensive question Sarah. It's...

SARAH FERGUSON: I'm only going on what they said.

TONY ABBOTT: It is a very offensive question.

SARAH FERGUSON: I'm just picking up on what Mr Katter said.

TONY ABBOTT: Well it's an it's an offensive question from you, ah, because the fact of the matter is all of our, all of our assumptions, all of our assumptions, I think, I think will stand up to scrutiny and I am very happy to defend them. Now I accept that Treasury wants to argue with some of them ah, but they are all eminently defensible.

ONSCREEN CAPTION: 2 September. 12 days since the election.

TV REPORTER: This morning the opposition defends itself against treasury analysis of election costings calculating a shortfall of up to 11 billion dollars.

TV REPORTER: And this is what the member for the NSW seat of Lyne, Rob Oakeshott, had to say when he arrived at parliament this morning.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: Well the economy for all of us should be a deal breaker.

SARAH FERGUSON: Outside in the parliamentary courtyard, the coalition's chances are about to receive another blow.

The newly declared independent MP for the Tasmanian seat of Dennison has picked sides.

ANDREW WILKIE (at press conference): I've asked you to gather today. I have decided to support the ALP.

SARAH FERGUSON: Andrew Wilkie had turned down a huge offer from the coalition.

ANDREW WILKIE: Mr Abbott made a number ah, of commitments to me to get my support, some of which were very generous. For instance, Mr Abbott offered one billion dollars to Tasmania to build a new hospital.

SARAH FERGUSON: Wilkie had informed Tony Abbott of his decision just before the press conference. Abbott was in a meeting with the independents.

TONY WINDSOR: There were a few ah, downward looking eyes because ah, all of a sudden and I think someone made the comment, it was very good meeting actually, but someone made the comment that ah, well I think we've just upgraded your position boys because ah, for Tony Abbott to become Prime Minister now, he needs the three people who haven't made a decision and those three people were sitting in front of him.

(Staffers bring cake into Oakeshott's office)

SARAH FERGUSON: It's Tony Windsor's 60th birthday.

The independents are still celebrating together.

(They sing 'Happy Birthday', then later they are watching The 7.30 Report while eating cake)

ANDREW WILKIE (on TV): Now remember, Labor only need two more to have an absolute majority. They don't need three more that the coalition needs.

SARAH FERGUSON: Wilkie's decision has changed the dynamic. Tony Abbott thought he'd secured Wilkie's vote. Now he needs the three amigos to vote as a block for the coalition to from government.

Right now that still seems possible.

ONSCREEN CAPTION: 3 September. 13 days since the election.

Bob Katter begins the day, announcing his 20 point wish list to the press.

REPORTER: Mr Katter, no ETS, no carbon tax, no mining tax. Aren't you effectively ruling out that you'll support Labor?

BOB KATTER: Um, on the contrary. The first item here is the national energy grid.

REPORTER: Mr Katter! Mr Katter, are you telling us not to interpret this 20 odd list as a list that's closer to a coalition?

BOB KATTER: Absolutely. Absolutely.

REPORTER: So it doesn't favour the coalition at all? It looks like it does.

BOB KATTER: I'm just telling you on the front page, no, no, you don't know what you're talking about then.

GARTH NORRIS, ROBERT OAKESHOTT STAFFER (on phone): We were being asked this morning about Bob's list, but we hadn't seen it.

SARAH FERGUSON: In spite of the impression created by his 20 demands, Katter insists to his colleagues, they are still operating as a group.

Tony Windsor, leaving to catch a plane home to Tamworth, is convinced.

TONY WINDSOR: We established the ground rules amongst ourselves over the next day and there's a general consensus that if we can, at all, come to an agreement that the three of us go one way, we'd would prefer that to happen. No absolute guarantee on that until we do a bit more homework, of course.

SARAH FERGUSON: But it looks like you're going to stick together?

TONY WINDSOR: Yeah. I'd be surprised if we don't.

SARAH FERGUSON: Over the weekend, with Windsor in Tamworth, an increasingly frustrated media pursues Oakeshott and Katter through the streets of Canberra.

REPORTER (Runs up to Katter who's in a taxi): Mr Katter how did your meeting go with the liberals?

BOB KATTER (Getting out of taxi): No, no, no. Just, just look I've gotta work a decision out here, I do not have time to be talking to the press.

ONSCREEN CAPTION: 6 September. 16 days since the election.

SARAH FERGUSON: Monday morning. The final round of negotiations is about to get under way. The pressure on all of them for a decision is intense.

TONY WINDSOR STAFFER 1 (On phone): No decision yet but they are certainly in the deliberation stage.

TONY WINDSOR STAFFER 2 (On phone): He hasn't made any decision as yet, so I don't know where you are hearing that from.

SARAH FERGUSON: Rob Oakeshott has secured one of his key personal goals, a deal with the major parties on parliamentary reform.

CHRISTOPHER PYNE (To the press): Well this has been a difficult birth, but we have achieved a terrific outcome for the parliament.

SARAH FERGUSON: The public theatre of the group hug guarantees this will be the day's big story.

But behind the scenes, a bigger story is unfolding. At the end of a long series of meetings, Abbott has come up with a massive final bid to win the independents' support.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: Shit! People are starting to put their cards on the table, and um, being quite frank, the dollar figure for regional Australia from the coalition on paper is looking substantially larger than the offer from government. Now I need to go through some notes and work out what's real and what's not and compare that to things like Treasury costings.

SARAH FERGUSON: But it's big enough to make you stop and reconsider?

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: It is.

TONY WINDSOR: Oh it's a substantial sum of money. But I don't think it's, it makes or breaks the issue one way or the other. But, but I think it's something I need some clarification on as to how, if that money was directed correctly, just what, what could it do ah, that's new in terms of regional development.

SARAH FERGUSON: We had the revelation from Andrew Wilkie that a billion dollars had been offered to Hobart Hospital, are you experiencing the same thing essentially? This is your Hobart Hospital?

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: We're aware, well I'm aware of that, um and that's where um, some deep thinking will be going on tonight. You know, whether it's a, whether it's a stunt to get someone across the line or whether it's a fair dinkum push for better outcomes for regional Australia. Again, just judgement call.

(Phone rings)

SARAH FERGUSON: Just then, Julia Gillard rings for Tony Windsor. She wants to send up Labor's more detailed offer in writing.

TONY WINDSOR (on the phone): Okay. That'd be great, we were going to duck out about seven. Even with the typos in, it won't matter. Yeah, Bob's gone to Sydney, but ah, Oakeshott's here with me. So um, yeah he's on QandA tonight.

SARAH FERGUSON: It's clear Gillard has no idea which way they're leaning.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: But you can also understand our position that we're not going to make a decision based on your judgement of your 20 point plan.

BOB KATTER: No of course, of course.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: So I think we're all in heated agreement that um, um, we're going to end up, you've made your call based on your 20 point plan. We can't be expected to make a decision on that. We need to sit down now and have a yarn about it.

BOB KATTER: Yeah, yeah absolutely.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: You're locked in based on the scorecard out of 20 on either side.

BOB KATTER: Yeah, yeah, yeah. And the score card is just overwhelmingly, it's not a matter for debate. Can we just ask you gentleman to leave is that alright for a minute?

TONY WINDSOR: Oh we're just trying to record the moment though Bob. Can we just talk about.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: So strategically Bob's, it's fair to say Bob's locked in and we'll have...

TONY WINDSOR (talking to camera): With one side.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: With one side.

TONY WINDSOR: We don't have to go which side it is at the moment so it creates a bit of a difficulty.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: So now we've got to break down to the considerations of the numbers in light of that and a whole range of issues that affect stability and outcomes from our position.

SARAH FERGUSON: Katter asks the cameras to leave again and then leaves himself by the side door.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT (to Windsor): 76, 74 either way now hmm?

TONY WINDSOR: Yes. Looks like it's down to us?

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: And then there were two. It's like highlander. There can only be one.

TONY WINDSOR: Two left.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: And we have to hunt together otherwise there's an election.

SARAH FERGUSON: Oakeshott and Windsor are left it to thrash out.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: But Abbott has had a good 48 hours and stumped up with some pretty attractive stuff for both national policy outcomes and local electorate outcomes.

TONY WINDSOR: Well I think it's fair to say that they're both developed pretty good regional development packages.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: Ah, their fair go for regions fund is of interest I think. I think that's a, um...

TONY WINDSOR: Broadband's not as good. What about health? Not much in it?

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: Not much in it.

TONY WINDSOR: Education not as good.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: Not for regional. No.

SARAH FERGUSON: Crucially some of the coalition's election promises were funded by cuts to regional education.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: Those that are poor have worse outcomes, indigenous have worse outcomes, those who live in regional Australia have worse outcomes. We don't need savings cuts to make that harder.

TONY WINDSOR: The coalition is wanting on that, and they'll cut it.

SARAH FERGUSON: As it has been from day one, choosing the side which will stay in power, and therefore deliver on its promises to regional Australia, is the key.

TONY WINDSOR: What do you reckon?

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: Look I think both where our guts have been the last few days is the right call for the nation in the full knowledge that it's a blister on both our arses.

TONY WINDSOR: And I think that the Labor party is probably the choice in that sense because they'll be the more frightened of the polls. Hearing the rumblings in the back rooms of the coalition I think they'd be keen to get to the polls as quickly as possible.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: That's right.

TONY WINDSOR: And if we can get all of these education and health funds prioritised for regional people...

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: ...we've done our work.

TONY WINDSOR: We'd do a great disservice if we went to the polls.

SARAH FERGUSON: A staffer from the Prime Minister's office arrives to bring them Gillard's final formal offers.

TONY WINDSOR: I haven't got my eyes on does that still say nine point something?

(Windsor and Robb wrap it up, shaking hands and congratulating each other)

Or almost done. Katter comes back one more time to work out their announcement.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT (To Bob Katter): So they're all asking if you're abstaining, did you say something or...?

BOB KATTER: No, no.

ROBERT OAKESHOTT: They're all onto you.

WINDSOR STAFFER: Just before you close the door, can you okay the time, so we can go round and do that officially?

TONY WINDSOR: Yeah, we'll just work out with Bob whether he's coming to it or not. Maybe.

SARAH FERGUSON: Moments later, Katter is gone again.

TONY WINDSOR: He may or may not be there but we can't send out a press conference memo with his name on it, if we don't know if he's going to be there.

SARAH FERGUSON: Downstairs he calls an impromptu press conference. Dozens of reporters and crews jammed into his office.

BOB KATTER: Can we provide some chairs! There's some room over here. Can I just ask up the back there, fellas, is everybody in the room? More or less as much as they can? Righto, obviously I'm here and my two colleagues are not here.

SARAH FERGUSON: None of the TV stations is prepared, so there are no pictures for live television.

REPORTER: So that's the Coalition?

BOB KATTER: So, so I am I am confirming that I am giving as a result of the 20 point plan um, what was decided ah by the parties as their policies that I will be backing the Coalition, yes.

SARAH FERGUSON: A mishap in their own planning means Oakeshott and Windsor are also separated just before their press conference.

(Tony Windsor makes his way to join Robert Oakeshott at their press conference)

17 days after the closest election in our history, after countless briefing and meetings, offers, counter offers and backroom agreements, all that remained was the announcement.