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All in one Heat pump advice needed please

Currently have a Carrier 50JX-030-301/2.5 ton unit (anyone know how old this unit is approx?) I was told it was a 2000/'02 unit. Thinking of replacing the Carrier with a Trane XL14c or XL16c.

I'm wondering if a 2.5ton unit was sufficient enough in the first place because I've been told by 2 techs now that I needed at least a 3ton unit for this size of house, and that's why I've been cold in the Winter and Hot in the Summer. Both techs also said the unit was running fine and was in good health.

Since I bought the house a couple years ago, the unit just can't seem to keep up unless the temp is perfect. I'd say 35f+ for Heat and 85-90f max for AC.
The ducting seems to be decent, but I see 1 major fault. In the attic, there is only 6" of blown cellulose (equalling R18+/-?) Needs to be around R38 I believe.

Would just adding insulation make that much of a difference, or could it be both that I need to do?

Size of equipment needed is based on a lot more than just sq ft of home. How many windows, direction, doors, insulation level. And yes, getting R38 would make a world of difference in heating & cooling the house and costs thereof.