by Ian Donnis and Scott MacKay

Duffy: 2000-style presidential cliffhanger possible on November 6

Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report says a presidential cliffhanger — like when Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000, but lost the Electoral College to George W. Bush — isn’t out of the question next month.

During a taping today of RIPR’s Bonus Q+A (airing Friday at 6:40 and 8:40 am), she said:

“We are starting to see the possibility that that may happen, and it’s not a sure thing yet, by any means. The good news about the swing states is that most of them are in the Eastern time zone. A lot of these states have early voting, so they should be counting early, especially places like Ohio and Florida.”

Duffy says she hopes it won’t be a very late night in determining the presidential winners, but adds, “For everthing else I don’t plan on going to bed at all.”

Other highlights from our conversation with Duffy, who also joined us on Political Roundtable (airing at 5:40 and 7:40 am Friday):

— She says Romney has a narrow shot of winning the presidency while losing Ohio.

— Duffy says she hopes President Obama, if he wins re-election, does more to cultivate congressional relationships. But she says she wouldn’t be surprised if the laid-back president, sometimes criticized for being too JFK and not enough LBJ, can’t change his persona and habits.

“Report says a presidential cliffhanger — like when Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000, but lost the Electoral College to George W. Bush — isn’t out of the question next month.”

Yes, it is out of the question, since in modern times it’s physically impossible to win the U.S. popular vote & lose in the Electoral College. And yes, that includes the 2000 election, when GWB actually lost to Gore in FL, using whatever “chad” standard that one wanted to use. The Gore campaign used a flawed strategy by not requesting a complete, statewide recount from the very start, which the state was actually in the process of doing when the U.S. Supreme Court stopped them because it would hurt GWB’s chances of being “elected”.

“‘A lot of these states have early voting, so they should be counting early, especially places like Ohio and Florida.'”

Early voting will be important in states like NC, FL, AZ, CO, GA, NV, NM & IN, since some of these states will likely see near or greater than a majority of votes cast early.

“She says Romney has a narrow shot of winning the presidency while losing Ohio.”

Nope. Romney can’t win the Presidency without winning in ALL of the states of OH, NC & FL, period.

Must win states for the President include NV, MI, NH, PA, VA & WI, which are all within reach or already in the bag. The President can technically win a second term without support from the states of IA, OH, CO or FL.

The GOP currently has little to no chance of taking back the U.S. Senate next month…it looks like +1-2 seats for them from their strength right now.