State Tax and Economic Review

The State Tax and Economic Review is the preeminent source of data and analysis on state tax collections. The State and Local Finance Initiative regularly collects data and information from all 50 states, uses this information to adjust national and state data from the US Census Bureau, then provides the most timely, accurate, and in-depth look at how states are faring. We examine the economic factors driving state tax collections based on data from US federal agencies like the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Housing Finance Agency.

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In the fourth quarter of 2019, state tax revenues were 6.6 percent higher than in the prior year. Preliminary data show strong growth in January and February before declines in March as the economy shut down in response to the COVID-19 epidemic.

How rapidly is the economy collapsing in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? In just the past four weeks, total weekly unemployment insurance claims exceeded the first 50 weeks of claims in the 2008-2009 Great Recession.

This brief summarizes how state revenue forecasters viewed their state economies before the COVID-19 pandemic and identifies forecast inputs to watch in the coming months for signs of the magnitude and breadth of state budget turbulence.

STATE TAX AND ECONOMIC REVIEW QUARTERLY REPORTS

In the fourth quarter of 2019, state tax revenues were 6.6 percent higher than in the prior year. Preliminary data show strong growth in January and February before declines in March as the economy shut down in response to the COVID-19 epidemic.May 26, 2020

State and local tax revenue growth was weaker in the third quarter of 2019, but likely a return to historical averages. Growth in some economic factors has recently weakened, which may be a warning sign.​February 24, 2020

State tax revenue saw robust growth in the second quarter of 2019, mostly because of the TCJA and resulting income tax shifting. Revenue growth returned to normal levels in the third quarter of 2019.November 26, 2019

Total state tax revenue topped $1 trillion for the first time in fiscal year 2018. But state officials would be wise to view recent revenue increases as a one-time windfall and anticipate slower revenue growth in the medium term.December 18, 2018

The first edition of Urban’s new State Tax and Economic Review finds total state tax revenue from all sources showed strong growth in the final quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018.October 30, 2018

FISCAL REPORTS

This brief summarizes how state revenue forecasters viewed their state economies before the COVID-19 pandemic and identifies forecast inputs to watch in the coming months for signs of the magnitude and breadth of state budget turbulence.April 2, 2020

"Sin taxes" are often viewed as budget saviors, though they play a rather small role in state budgets. Although states raise revenue from in taxes, policymakers should be mindful of these taxes' limitations.October 8, 2019

The Tax Policy Center’s State and Local Finance Initiative’s quarterly State Tax and Economic Review shows solid revenue growth in the third quarter of 2018 but also includes some warning signs that recent revenue gains may be short-lived.March 12, 2019