Spring is only around 34 days away. The CFSV2 is showing a warmer than normal Spring/Summer for my area starting after March.

What is the general consensus on what people are thinking right now? Will we see a lot of thunderstorms? Last year on the West Coast, we didn't really see any thunderstorms, but we did see lots of rain. So I'm really hoping we have a better Spring/Summer this year than last, since last year was fairly miserable.

For East Coasters, think Summer 2009, except that was what Spring and most of Summer was for us.

Based on variables I've analyzed, I do foresee a cooler and wetter than normal April across most of the East and across the West but I do think May will wind up near normal-slightly above normal across the East, cooler than normal still across the West.

Lets see how the ENSO fairs thru March. That should be a big clue on what may occur in the Spring (MAM)

However, the clashing of air masses may not occur as readily given the fact that opposing cold air isn't really available throughout most of NA but we'll have to see how this progresses. I doubt very highly that it will be anything like the record-setting severe weather season of last year but the areas affected may be shifted northwards and could perhaps include regions of ON earlier than the usual summer time period.

I love severe weather just as much as I do winter weather (perhaps even moreso) but hate the destruction that comes with it. Hopefully we'll see an active spring up here without the toll that frequently comes with severe weather.

Anything but the soaking spring of last year, really. I guess if you love clouds and rain last April was right up your alley.

One common feature was the lowered heights over Alaska, outside of 49-50 which had some ridging there. This is widely considered an extremely ugly pattern since it encourages mild pacific air to enter the NA pattern.

Here's the air temperatures for all of those winters together, looking toasty in the East:

Things cooled down considerably, especially in the west. So the questions are how much do you trust analog years which may or may not always serve a useful purpose? And if you do, do you agree with my choices or have any suggestions for others? I could perhaps roll them forward again to the following winter to see what it showed if that peaks anyone's curiosity. Any comments?

I don't because it's only looking at one aspect (Nino/Nina) when there's a lot more than that managing climate. I mean, any conclusion would be anecdoctical (meaningless) if you only look at one item.

There's a big difference when you got a La Nina lasting all year than a year when La Nina is fading (turning to neutral) at the end of the winter (like 2011 , and like 2012 as it is looking the same way for the moment) - so selecting a year or a period of this or that condition must be carefully done. Even a year starting in Nino, going mostly to neutral the rest of the year to end under La Nina - it's an all different ball game.

I don't because it's only looking at one aspect (Nino/Nina) when there's a lot more than that managing climate. I mean, any conclusion would be anecdoctical (meaningless) if you only look at one item.

I see your point but it's still a major factor and I also chose most of the years based on similar upper air steering patterns, not solely ENSO. We can also sort by other teleconnections as well for possible similarities there.

For instance, how about winters where the AO (something we've also talked a lot about this year) averaged >1 standard deviation? Here the temps for them:

I think those are good anolog years and something to consider for sure. But it does add fear that perhaps this warm winter will catch up with us and we have a cool spring. If we arent going to have a proper winter then I am ready for the warmth

What about 06 - 07? Although I think that was an elnino year. That was a terribly warm and boring winter, but then in April it was cold and we had our biggest snow storm for the year in the middle of the month with like 15 cm of snow..

I think those are good anolog years and something to consider for sure. But it does add fear that perhaps this warm winter will catch up with us and we have a cool spring. If we arent going to have a proper winter then I am ready for the warmth

Only time will tell. It could be that individual months in those springs were quite cold but others were warm and averaged out it's cooler than normal around the GL area. The much colder than normal temps are in Western Canada for those years.

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What about 06 - 07? Although I think that was an elnino year. That was a terribly warm and boring winter, but then in April it was cold and we had our biggest snow storm for the year in the middle of the month with like 15 cm of snow..

Not too bad really, average to above-average temps. Something interesting is that 2007 had an April snow as you said and so did April 1975, a year from my analog set. Could we see something similar this year in early spring? Stay tuned lol

1950 was LaNina all year starting strong and weakening1975 was LaNina all year starting weak and going strong2000 was an ongoing LaNina wich barely made it to neutral (-0.4) and went back to LaNina. 2002 was neutral going to Nino

So my point is, the ENSO situation was different in each and every year. Based on that, any conclusion can only be anecdotal.

As i said, the situation/impact is very different when going from one state to the other. An increasing LaNina situation will give a very different outcome, than a fading one. Also, a transition year (going from Nina to Neutral and Nino to neutral) is always a very active year (heavy weather) , while going from neutral to other conditions means quiet time - weather wise - in general.

For us in the East, we have similar issues with the AO/NAO. Generally speaking, +NAO means not much storms going our way, while -NAO means we can expect storms going our way. In summer, +NAO means high ridge and calm weather, -NAO means bad weather. Yet it's not always the case because other connections comes into play and can change the equation.

1950 was LaNina all year starting strong and weakening1975 was LaNina all year starting weak and going strong2000 was an ongoing LaNina wich barely made it to neutral (-0.4) and went back to LaNina. 2002 was neutral going to Nino

So my point is, the ENSO situation was different in each and every year. Based on that, any conclusion can only be anecdotal.

I chose those years based mostly on the Alaskan height pattern and the subsequent overall warmth in the East, not necessarily ENSO although I did gravitate towards Nina since we're in one now.

I'd love to hear your suggestions too. I'm not saying analog years are the be-all and end-all for forecasting but I just thought it would be one interesting thing to look at.

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As i said, the situation/impact is very different when going from one state to the other. An increasing LaNina situation will give a very different outcome, than a fading one. Also, a transition year (going from Nina to Neutral and Nino to neutral) is always a very active year (heavy weather) , while going from neutral to other conditions means quiet time - weather wise - in general.

We can only guess at which state we're headed to this year, which do you think and how do you foresee it affecting the conditions through this year? I'm favouring neutral with a slight warm bias but perhaps not crossing the line into weak Nino territory. My second guess would be another Nina.

I chose those years based mostly on the Alaskan height pattern and the subsequent overall warmth in the East, not necessarily ENSO although I did gravitate towards Nina since we're in one now.

I understand that, but the original question is ''how much do you trust analog years which may or may not always serve a useful purpose?'' and my answer was ''i don't'' as too much stuff comes into account to influence the weather and the climate (on a longer run). The rest was a quick view to explain my own answer. I mean it is very hard to find similar years when you put all conditions.

QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 18 2012, 09:53 AM)

I'd love to hear your suggestions too. I'm not saying analog years are the be-all and end-all for forecasting but I just thought it would be one interesting thing to look at.We can only guess at which state we're headed to this year, which do you think and how do you foresee it affecting the conditions through this year? I'm favouring neutral with a slight warm bias but perhaps not crossing the line into weak Nino territory. My second guess would be another Nina.

I Aggree - i did not intend you were saying it was ''be-all / end-all'' - it is interesting to look but have to be very carefull to pull conclusion from it.

As per going neutral, the models are usually very (the CMC ensemble) accurate at predicting the upcoming conditions. So i'm confident it will go neutral to positive neutral later this year.

I understand that, but the original question is ''how much do you trust analog years which may or may not always serve a useful purpose?'' and my answer was ''i don't'' as too much stuff comes into account to influence the weather and the climate (on a longer run). The rest was a quick view to explain my own answer. I mean it is very hard to find similar years when you put all conditions

Fair enough. To me analogs are another factor to consider in the toolset. They're far from perfect and nearly impossible to find great matches for since every year has it's own factor & quirks, agree with you there.

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As per going neutral, the models are usually very (the CMC ensemble) accurate at predicting the upcoming conditions. So i'm confident it will go neutral to positive neutral later this year.

Taking the years where a Nina winter transitioned to neutral/weak Nino (correct me if I'm wrong on these anyone) we get a spring which looks like this in terms of the 500mb pattern:

Recognizing that analog years have limits, I thought it might be enlightening to have everyone (or those interested) chime in with their ideas and then sorta come up with a consensus analog forecast from the entire forum which we could use as a tool to roll forward through the year towards next winter and see how well it verifies. The more opinions the better.