A Potential Texans Offensive Draft Board

This project has taken me quite awhile to come up with since I have to watch many of these guys myself and then rely on league sources to help me piece together the right fit for what the Texans like to do on offense. We know that the Texans have a massive need at WR and they would like to get better at RT.

Keep in mind, however, that the Texans only have two TEs right now, a potential hole in the roster when Ben Tate leaves after next year and they will always keep an open mind if the right guard or center prospect popped up. Here is a look at players I think fit in with what the Texans will be looking for and a prediction of what round they might be targeted by the Texans. The players in parenthesis are the most likely targets.d

1st Round

QBs|

RBs

WRsJustin Hunter, Tennessee
DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson

TEsTyler Eifert, Notre Dame

TacklesMenelik Watson, Florida State

Guards/Centers
Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina

Z-Report Says: The Texans are fairly particular about the type of WRs they will draft this early which means they will likely pay attention to size, speed, ability to grasp the offense quickly and willingness to block. Justin Hunter has #1 WR size, speed and athletic traits, but drops were a major issue for him at Tennessee. I think there is a good chance he’ll be off the board by the 27th pick. Hopkins isn’t as athletic as the Texans would probably like, but he’s got pretty good size and his game speed is solid. The Texans will likely be highly interested in athletic right tackle Menelik Watson, but if there is a run on tackles as I expect, he probably won’t make it to them. Jonathan Cooper will almost certainly be gone but if not, they would almost have to take him here as he’s a phenomenal fit in the zone scheme and could immediately challenge Wade Smith for a starter’s job. Tyler Eifert, the tight end out of Notre Dame, might feel like a luxury pick to some of you, but he’s not. Eifert is a legitimate pass-catching threat with plus athleticism and an ability to fit into the Texans scheme which can ask quite a bit out of their tight ends. The Texans need more offensive weapons and Eifert is just that.

Z-Report Says: If the Texans don’t take a WR in the 1st round, there is a very good chance that they will make that position a priority in this round. There are some character and speed issues with Keenan Allen and Quinton Patton might have some issues with getting separation so it will be interesting to see how the Texans have their WRs rated as the draft unfolds. I’m a big fan of Colorado LT David Bahktiari, but his strength is as a pass protector and I don’t know if he’s as good in the run game as the Texans would like. If the Texans look at WR in the first round, then this round might go to the defensive side of the ball.

Z-Report Says: I think this is an excellent round to find quality offensive talent. Dallas Thomas would be a very nice guard option if he were to make it to the end of the 3rd and he has experience at the tackle position as well. I have grave doubts that TEs like Kelce or McDonald make it to where the Texans are picking in the 3rd, but if they move up or have already traded back from the 2nd into the early 3rd, both TEs could come in and compete for snaps right away. I really like every WR on the 3rd round group listed above. I think Dobson is probably gone by this point but I hope not. Dobson has good length and can really go after the ball down the field. Chris Harper has some Kevin Walter tendencies and that is not meant as a slam. He’s a tough guy just like Walter. While it is unlikely that the Texans take a RB in this round, both Michael and Kniles Davis have the type of upside that the Texans might be willing to gamble on since Ben Tate is likely gone after 2013.

4th Round

QBsZac Dysert, Miami (OH.)

RBsJoseph Randle, Oklahoma StateMike Gillislee, Florida

WRsCorey Fuller
Tavarres King, GeorgiaCobi Hamilton, Arkansas

TEsNick Kasa, ColoradoDion Sims, Michigan State

TacklesJordan Mills, La. TechVinston Painter, Virginia Tech

Guards/CentersBrian Schwenke, Cal (Center)J.C. Tretter, Cornell

Z-Report Says: Of all the players I have listed in this round, I could see Randle, Gillislee and Kasa getting the most attention. Joseph Randle may have been a product of the spread system at Oklahoma State, but I like his burst and think he’s got potential in the zone scheme. Mike Gillislee is a tough runner who showed more quickness to the perimeter than I expected while watching him at the Senior Bowl practices. Nick Kasa is one of the most intriguing TEs in this draft. Kasa is a former defensive lineman who is tough as a blocker and who shows good speed in his routes. His hands are an issue at times, but he’s got the chance to be a very effective combination TE in the pros. Zac Dysert is a QB who I think has sneaky pro potential and I wouldn’t have my feelings hurt one bit if the Texans drafted him to groom behind Matt Schaub.

Z-Report Says: When a team drafts in rounds 5, 6 or 7, they should be thinking upside. It’s better to swing for the fences and miss in those rounds rather than try and hit singles. The best way to approach these rounds, in my opinion, is the look for players with plus physical traits or who are projects who might be able to be bring immediate help to special teams while they learn to play their NFL position. Notre Dame RB Cierre Wood really jumped off the screen at me while watching him. He’s makes quick, decisive cuts and he doesn’t have to gear down when he plants his foot and takes off. He’s a very good late round zone fit at RB. Mike James is one of those “home run” prospects. The big back out of Miami has good straight line speed for a man his size and can come in and compete for the kick return duties right away. There are some very intriguing guard prospects in these rounds and Eric Kush is very quick center who is tailor-made for the Texans zone scheme. I’m not much of a fan of the QBs in these rounds, but there are a couple of WRs I like including Ace Sanders (would compete with Keyshawn Martin in the slot role) and Lanear Sampson out of Baylor.

A major factor in whether the Texans draft OL in the first or second round would seem, to me, to be how much faith they have in Brooks, Jones, and Newton showing major development by their second season. What is your evaluation of where the offense will be if the right side starters come from these three?

I think Brooks is going to be just fine. I like him. Newton will improve, but I just don’t see him as talented enough to be a full time starter on a really good team. Jones, to me, is a better fit at center, but I think he’s okay at guard. I would probably rotate him in with Brooks some this year.

I just wanted to give you kudos on a well thought-out, original psoting. I am a Bengals fan and only read your article (linked from PFT) because I love the draft. It really seemed like you put alot of time and effort into compiling this draft board and it made for a very interesting read. I would love for someone to do this for the Bengals. Again, I commend you on a great post.

thanks for the thoughts. Looking at your board and considering the Texans needs on both sides of the ball, which positions would you look at in rounds 1-3? I’d go NT 1st Round or early 2nd if they trade back, RT 2nd, WR and LB 3rd.

I think the offensive board is much more limited in the 1st round. There are some really good fits, but fewer prospects to consider. If they don’t go WR in the 1st, they will almost have to go with a WR in the 2nd. In the 3rd, I think safety, OLB, WR and possibly D-line are the target areas.

LZ,
Great post as always. I’ve been realy hoping the Texans would take Hunter with the 27th pick. Tons of raw ability that you can’t coach with tremendous upside. That said, his stock seems to be rising quickly as you mentioned. What other teams might be targeting him in round 1 and do you still see Austin and Patterson going ahead of him?

Additionally, in rd 2 why do you prefer Escobar over Kelce and McDonald? Perhaps a moot point as I believe they’ll look at RT or OLB here.

Lance, Is Geno Smith all that and if so, would the Texans consider drafting him if he slips. I know they have other needs but I always come back to Arron Rodgers and Kobe Bryant. Neither the Packers or Lakers needed them but both had the forsight to see the superstar potential and go after it. Neither regreted it.

I appreciate the work you put in on this. While I don’t consider my own football knowledge to be anything close to rivaling yours, I don’t see you as infallible, either. I firmly believe we go defense in the first simply because that will be the side of the ball the best football players will be on @ #27. One or two of those 5 or 6 potential WRs will still be around at #57. Will Datone Jones fall to us at 27? Is Kevin Minter good enough to go @27, or is Manti Te’o that much better than Minter? Is Eric Reid the perfect Ed Reed understudy?

You don’t see Lance’s thoughts as “infallible”? Your obvious misuse of the word besides, are you trying to say that Lance is capable of error on a subject of which everyone’s estimate is nothing more than a reasonable projection with maybe trillions of final possibilities, thousands of variables that change after each pick is made and that none of us, for the most part, were even aware of to begin with? Then yes, you are probably correct, bright eyes.

I would be thrilled if the Texans grab Dysert, even if it had to be in the 2nd round. Schaub just isn’t the answer at QB and I really want to see a QB change. I know there is no chance for a change in 2013, but looking forward to 2014 I think Dysert has potential. My biggest fear is sticking with Schaub for the long haul and wasting JJ, Andre, Arian’s best years.

Yes. They drafted a slot WR last year and they don’t have the luxury of taking another one this year inside of the first three rounds since they have so many holes to fill. If he were 6’1, then would would be talking.

Becoming more enamored with Terrence Williams skill set. Hopefully the Texans go defense in the first and Terence williams in the second. There certainly is not much difference between Williams and Hunter in my mind. The biggest gamble is hoping other teams picking the players before the Texans. Hopefully their draft board shapes up how they like it to get all the guys they have in mind. ILB is really weak position to me right now. WR is just as weak. They should concentrate heavily 1 and 2 on those. Then from there they need a RT. Thats exactly where their next pick some time on the 3rd round makes sense for a run on that type of position. Maybe OLB then as well.

What do you think the best strategy is for teams drafting late in the first round?? I’d prefer to take the most talented player over positional need, IE I’d rather take an Eifert at TE over a Hopkins at WR since Eifert presents more matchup problems, especially when he’s spread out wide, IMO.

Also, you mentioning drafting a QB to ‘groom behind Schaub.’ What do you think Case Keenum’s pro future entails??

That’s a really good question and I don’t know if there is a right answer but I’ll give you my opinion. What I’ve found is that in many cases, good football players fall to the backend due to deficiencies in either size or speed. Or, a player happens to be coming from a position that isn’t usually a high-end priority like safety, guard, center and sometimes TE. If you stay true to your board and look for best player, you usually do well at the back end of the first because a good player has fallen for a reason that has nothing to do with actual football.

Great post for this time of year. How much will the Texans take the character issues into account? Such as the failed drug test of one WR, and the literal stink of the trashed out room of another. What I saw of Hopkins on video looks like a great fit for the Texans, but what is the deal with the room trashing? Was that him, and if not, who? Why would they risk drafting the Cal WR who apparently could not stay clean until the combine…I like the idea of grabbing a QB if one is there at some point,too. Looking forward to your defense list.

They take character into account, but “character issue” is up for definition. A drug test isn’t going to kill a prospect necessarily, but multiple drug tests might. Violence against women and you are off the board for sure. As for Hopkins, I think that issue would be considered immaturity unless there are other issues is his background, I think he’ll be on their board from a character standpoint. From a speed/athleticism standpoint? We’ll see.

Great work Lance! A lot of this draft board fits the Texans schemes and needs very well.

With nine picks in this draft, including the compensatory picks they can’t trade, do the Texans even have enough cap space to sign all draftees?

Would it be worth bundling some picks (this year, next year, etc) to trade with someone like the Jets and moving up to #9 to grab a high OT, CB or WR? The thinking of a high caliber OT is obvious to shore up our OL in front of a less mobile QB (Schaub) and to sustain the running game for Foster. The CB role is always one in motion since it is difficult to have two highly paid veteran CBs, and it takes a year or two to develop them. You almost need to have at least one starting CB on a rookie contract to afford the veteran on the other side. This takes planning 2 to 3 years out.

If not, what about taking “best player available” at our #27 spot in the first round, and then bundling picks to move up earlier in the second round for a high pick WR?

Lance,
Saw Caplan’s tweet about you and other experts’ mock yesterday. Don’t see it posted anywhere on TSLV. Anywhere to see it? Appreciate all your hard work, especially on posts like this one. Easy to look at the first 40 players, but going into to deeper rounds to find targets like you do is awesome.

LZ- Why has everyone lost confidence in Tyler Wilson? If I am not mistaken, he was considered one of the top two QB’s coming out before his senior season. I know he didn’t have a great season but alot of that was due to the circus surrounding Arkansas. Personally, I would like to see him end up in Houston.

How much will a GM weight present need over anticipated losses in the next 1-2 years? For example, one could anticipate losing Daniels and Antonio Smith due to cap reasons and the Texans have been pretty good at drafting ahead to fill those needs. If thats the case then DE and TE become more of a priority than a 2 down inside linebacker even though the latter is morer of a need now.

Hard to say. I know that after the last two years watching the Texans cap issues, I can tell you that I would be paying very close attention to future cap ramifications, etc. I have plugged in Eifert and Datone Jones to Texans at different time specifically because of OD and Antonio’s contracts.

Feels like the Texans needs may line up OK with the best talent available at their pick. If they want a receiver, and Hunter and Austin are both gone, I hope they desperately try to trade down to the first half of the 2nd round. I think I would be happy with any of the following guys at our pick (1st round in my order of preference)

1st – J. Hunter, A. Ogletree, A. Brown, or M. Watson

Do you feel like the Texans will most likely take one of these guys? I know I have seen Hopkins and Allen associated with the Texans a lot, but they seem a lttle like a reach in the 1st.

Are Ogletree or Brown versatile enough to play ILB or OLB? What about some the 2nd or 3rd round prospects liek Sio Moore or Collins?

What’s up LZ? I was bored at work and going through some mock drafts and came across 1 that went all 7 rounds. I decided to go through and see who I thought was the best available for the Texans at each spot. They obviously included trades, b/c the Texans had some different picks, but they gave no explanation of the trades. I don’t remember the site, so I couldn’t tell you if it was reputable at all. Anyways, I came up with the following picks and would be ecstatic if we somehow, ended up with these picks and these guys in the first few rounds.