As part of the countdown to the 2012-13 college basketball season, Sporting News takes an analytical look at top-ranked Indiana:

REASONS TO BELIEVE

Size that matters. Having the best center in college basketball used to be a near-guarantee of championship contention, but impactful big men have become so rare that coaches have had to find other ways to win. But Anthony Davis was the most important figure in Kentucky’s 2012 title, and so it will be for Cody Zeller and Indiana. Zeller, a team player, changes the game at both ends.

Sweet shooting. Indiana ranked second in the nation in 3-point percentage and fifth in field-goal shooting last year. Teams that run their offenses so efficiently often wind up in the vicinity of the Final Four. Given some of the team’s additions, junior guard Jordan Hulls likely can concentrate even more on getting quality shots—and he was a 49.3 percent 3-point shooter last season.

Improved athleticism. Last season’s team lacked the athletic spark on the perimeter to become an elite defensive team and had a final efficiency rank of 64th. This season, freshman point guard Yogi Ferrell and small forward Jeremy Hollowell can combine with veterans Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey to address that issue.

REASONS TO WORRY

Speaking of defense ... The past three titles all were won by teams that ranked higher in field-goal defense than field-goal shooting. And no team has gotten anywhere near the title with the level of defensive efficiency IU delivered last season. The Hoosiers don’t have to become a great defensive team, but they must be good.

Rebounding. IU ranked 50th in the nation in rebounding margin last season (4.1), and no Hoosier grabbed even seven per game. Power forward Christian Watford averaged 5.8 per game, although that was mainly because being positioned outside as a shooter provides fewer chances at the offensive glass. Still, Indiana is capable of doing better.

Undefined roles. Oladipo and Sheehey are talented players with two years in the program. They shoot high percentages. Neither has grabbed an identifiable role, however. Oladipo would do well to buy into the notion of becoming a defensive stopper. That does not exclude the possibility of contributing as a scorer; ask Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Sheehey has the ability to drive the ball, yet he shot only 47 free throws last season. Growth at these two positions might be the most important aspect of IU’s development.

PROJECTED ROTATION

Starters

PG - Yogi Ferrell, Fr., 6-0/178. Defense is his ticket into the lineup.

SG - Victor Oladipo, Jr., 6-5/214. A dynamic athlete who can hit a shot, his contributions must be more consistent.

SF - Will Sheehey, Jr., 6-7/200. He has so much ability it’s hard to believe there isn’t more in him than 8.6 points per game.

C - Cody Zeller, Soph., 7-0/240. No doubt there is pressure on him to progress from great to exceptional, but he has the goods.

Key reserves

G - Jordan Hulls, Sr., 6-0/182. He will battle to retain a starting job but could become the best third-guard option in the game.

G - Remy Abell, Soph., 6-4/210. He can be a defense-first backup at both guard spots.

F - Jeremy Hollowell, Fr., 6-8/217. He could be asked to fill some minutes at Watford’s spot.

F/C - Derek Elston, Sr., 6-9/216. The only experienced backup inside will miss most of the nonconference slate with a torn meniscus that equals six to eight weeks on the sideline.

MY VIEW

Hoosiers coach Tom Crean: “Assistant coach Tim Buckley made a great point: We started working on defense and defensive concepts and more competitive defense than really we ever have. Tim said, ‘We’re good enough that we can do that right now. They’re quick learners.’ There’s talent. We’re getting deeper; we’re getting more talent. I still get concerned: Are we going to be tough enough to do what we need to do mentally? Physically, we’re getting stronger. But are we going to be physically and mentally strong enough to do what they want to do? Do we have the capabilities yet? We’re in the conversation of it. Going where they really want to go, do we have that toughness? We’ve got to make sure we’re building that.”

THEIR VIEW

An opposing Big Ten coach’s take: “They’re a well-coached, well-rounded team. Obviously, Zeller is a big anchor in the interior. They’ve got excellent shooting in spots, and they have size and athleticism. Sheehey and Oladipo on the wings are both tough to guard. Both of them are competitors. Hulls is a guy who can make tough shots and big shots. They’ve got some great freshmen coming in. I think they’ve got all the pieces that you need to make a run at the national championship. Some of the defensive issues are really the youthfulness. I think they’ll be a much better defensive team as a whole. Zeller will be tougher, understand how to be a presence around the basket and cut off angles. Hulls will be a better defender; I think sometimes people took advantage of him. It’s a maturing process. I’m sure they’ll make that next improvement.”

IMPACT NEWCOMER

PG Yogi Ferrell, freshman. He’s a McDonald’s All-American who appears to be better equipped to run a college offense than other players in the class who were more highly rated. It might take time, but don’t be surprised to see Ferrell win the starting position and push Hulls into more of a scorer’s role. Hulls was an adequate playmaker, though; to make a move worthwhile, Ferrell must control the ball as a defender.

FIVE BIGGEST GAMES

Nov. 27 vs. North Carolina. ESPN will full-throttle the hype on this as the showcase of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, but the Tar Heels will be early in the retooling of a talented team.

Dec. 15 vs. Butler (Crossroads Classic). Part of a doubleheader in Indianapolis, the Hoosiers get the chance to reclaim control of the state.

Dec. 31 at Iowa. The Hoosiers’ Big Ten opener is a tricky one. The Hawkeyes are tough at home and perhaps bound for NCAA Tournament contention.

Feb. 19 at Michigan State. The Hoosiers figure to have a nice, fat mark in the wins column and a big, juicy ranking when they visit the Spartans—who have more than enough ability to spoil IU’s night.

March 10 at Michigan. Could the Big Ten title race again come down to the final day of the regular season?

BOTTOM LINE

Indiana has the most promising player in college basketball, tons of returning talent and a coach with a Final Four on his resume. So the Hoosiers make an attractive choice as a preseason No. 1. But they must grow considerably to fulfill that prediction—and also to fend off the impressive competition they will face within the Big Ten. Battles against the likes of Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan will force Indiana to improve or abdicate.