During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.

To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.

The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

FAQs

Unlike mainstream economists, who base their forecasts on econometric models, we have developed a robust leading indicator approach (not based on regressions or correlations), which is unrivaled in making accurate calls of turning points in economic growth and inflation worldwide.

Separately, ECRI is a truly independent research institution that is known to be objective and non-partisan: we have a broad membership base and are not constrained by dominant academic paradigms, political ideologies, or support from special-interest groups.

Testimonial

ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005

- The Economist

ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.

- Sydney Morning Herald

ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.

- Harvard Business Review

Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.

- Alan Abelson, Barron's

ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.

- IMF

(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.

- Fortune 100 Company

I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.

- Randall Forsyth, Barron's

Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.