Series prediction: Too much size and star power to call it anything except Clippers over Warriors in 6 games

* 8:33 a.m. Saturday update: As always, I believe the goal is to be the first team to win two games in a row. I’ve been keeping a running tally of that stat (which I can’t find right now) and it’s something like 85% of the time since 2000 the first team to win back-to-back games eventually won the series. That was the case in 14 of the 15 series last year and in the other no team won back-to-back games–Miami and Indiana just alternated all 7 games to get to Miami’s 7-game victory.

My prediction is that the Warriors and Clippers will alternate victories until the Clippers win Games 4, 5 and 6.

-Just got into LA and I apologize, but the time spent on the 49ers/Aldon Smith story plus the Stephen Curry column for a more general sports audience has made it almost impossible for me to get into the chewy X-and-O prediction stuff for the Warriors vs. Clippers.

Which starts in about 13 hours, yikes!

Time to do some extremely fast extrapolating and predicting, just to get it down here so I can be made fun of or taunted as much as possible.

Here are the things I’ll predict about this series…

* I think the Clippers aren’t a ton better than the Warriors up and down the line and I think the Warriors can fudge enough here or there to handle the really tough match-up (who’s guarding Blake Griffin? who matches up with DeAndre Jordan if he pounds the boards?) for a game or two.

So I think the Warriors have enough firepower (particularly No. 30) to give the Clippers a scare here or there and I’ll predict that the Warriors win one of these first two games in LA.

* That’s based on a guess that Griffin won’t play MVP-level ball all series, but I allow that he might–if David Lee can’t bother him or if Draymond Green can’t get in there for major minutes and get under his skin, the Warriors are in trouble and could get swept.

Lee is also going to have to be a fulcrum of the Warriors’ offense–to score points when the Clippers jump Curry and to make Griffin play a lot of defense. I think Lee can do that for a game or two, but I don’t think he can win this match-up over the length of the series.

If Lee does it, I’ll be the first one to say so.

* The Clippers aren’t the same talented-but-overly-beatable team they were under former coach Vinny Del Negro. Not with Doc Rivers and that top-notch staff.

They will make adjustments as the series goes on, they will eventually take advantage of Andrew Bogut’s absence (very curious to see how they deploy Jordan and what they’ll do if Mark Jackson starts fouling him intentionally), and they will get their guys to the right spots.

The Clippers play tough defense, they pass the ball wonderfully, they utilize the weapons they have, and they won’t get repeatedly broken down by the same stuff, every time down the court.

Curry is going to score, I’m pretty sure, but he will have to do it in all kinds of different ways because the Clippers will adapt, adjust, throw traps, jump passing lanes, rush the three-point line…

Yes, it ‘s going to be rough for him. He’s good enough to put up a 40-point game or two, but it will be bumpy along the way.
* Chris Paul is a reason and a prediction: He’s going to win one of these games almost on his own, just like Curry might. But I think Paul’s victory will be later in the series and might be the culmination of a Clipper takeover, say, in Game 4.
* I respect and praise Mark Jackson, but I don’t think his staff is going to out-coach and out-maneuver Rivers’ staff. No, I don’t think that at all.

* Klay Thompson obviously is a huge key, too, since the Clippers don’t have a natural match-up for him and he’ll be spending a lot of time defending Paul.

It’s a lot to ask Thompson; if he turns in the same kind of performance he had against Denver last year (in a similar way he can get some off-match-ups when the Clippers keep Paul on Curry), the Warriors can win this series. I don’t think that’s in the offing, though.

* I think Jordan Crawford will not be a major contributor in this series–the more minutes he gets, the worst it might be for the Warriors because you’re not going to beat the Clippers by dribbling around one-on-one and firing up wild shots.
Those usually lead to Clipper dunks on the other side.

* I think Green and Matt Barnes will get in a tussle early on, and then we’ll see how the rest of the hostilities play out.

* I think the Warriors win Game 1–the early start time could slow down the Clippers at home, Curry and Thompson could hit a burst of threes early on, I’ve seen it happen before. I’ll just take a guess.

I think the Clippers will come back to dominate Game 2.

* When it gets back to Oracle, I think the Warriors will win Game 3… then the Clippers will win Game 4. That’s my predicted Chris Paul Game.

* I think the Clippers will win Game 5 back at Staples and then with all the momentum–and Rivers figuring out this series–they’ll go on to end the series at Oracle in Game 6.

This would be a similar pattern to the Spurs-Warriors series last year, by the way; when Popovich figured out the rhythms and match-ups in Game 4, the series was essentially over.
Prediction: The Clippers in 6 fun, passionate games because they’re just a little bit better than the Warriors in enough spots.

Based on your last blog, the Clippers (and every other team) strategy is simple: stop Curry. If you do that, there isn’t another legit star to win. It takes two and right now we only have one. Lacob and Co have their work cut out for themselves post season to take the next steps, with or without Jackson as the coach. My buddy from Philly told me we’d end up being disappointed with Iggy. He had watched him for years. Disappointed I’m not, but his timidity offensively leave me scratching my bald head. I’m thrilled we got such a high profile All Star level player to come play for us, but clearly he and Bogut just don’t bring enough offensive firepower. Lee does, but at quite a price (not in money, although he makes a lot, but in defense). So we have a flawed team and a coach who has somehow leg Barnes take two steps back this season. That guy can be a seriously good basketball player, but something went terribly wrong this season. On the other hand, Green blossomed and has become the second most valuable player on the team imho. Klay just seems to be Klay. Maybe next year he will reach new heights on the court. Who knows? Meanwhile, like most people, i think we are one and done but hoping that is not the case.

HiRez

Nice prediction on Game 1, Tim!

Giuseppe Ventolucci

So far Kawakami winning big time in Vegas…!

gs4

Nice call Lucky T! I guess if I want to go, I should go Thursday to see them win before Chris Paul takes over the series. #LetsGoWarriors