000
FXUS63 KABR 302017
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
317 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY.
TWO WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE FIRST ONE
WILL PASS NORTH OF WITH CWA WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS POSSIBLE
IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL CROSS SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER LLM WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1-1.5K
J/KG...AND DECENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TO WORK WITH. WHILE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT
CHANCES LOOK BETTER IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
OR FORCING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT A
SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LLJ
AND INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COUPLED WITH SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY WED EVENING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHERE
CAPPING WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND THERE IS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH
NOSING IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE