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Thursday, February 23, 2012

Is OnMobile Global for sale?

A few weeks back, there was a rumour in the market that TCS was looking at the possibility of buying OnMobile Global. That remained a rumour and did not become news. Those who may have bought the stock on the basis of the rumour may be waiting for an opportunity to sell.

That opportunity may not be far away. As per a recent article in Business India magazine, OnMobile Global is on the block and the latest suitor is Idea Cellular (of the Aditya Birla group). Apparently, Idea is ready to buy a 60% stake in the company at a price of Rs 100 – which is 33% higher than today’s closing price of Rs 74.40.

If this rumour turns out to be true, then investors may be able to pocket a neat gain if they enter at the current market price. Acquisition of a 60% stake – or even a lower stake - will trigger an open offer to existing shareholders.

In a post on the telecom sector a couple of months back, it was observed that the OnMobile stock was trying to form a bottom by consolidating within a rectangular band between 54 and 73. It was suggested that the stock could be a contrarian bet, but with a strict stop-loss at 52.

In Jan ‘12, the stock crossed above the rectangular consolidation zone, rose to an intra-day top of 84 on Feb 15 ‘12 and briefly breached its falling 200 day EMA. It has now pulled back to the top of the rectangular band. An upward bounce can be used to add/enter.

What if the rumour about Idea‘s stake buy remains a rumour – like it happened in the case of TCS? The company is fundamentally strong, and its overseas businesses, which contribute nearly half of its total revenues, are supposedly doing well. Domestic business is under pressure. Q3 results showed 12% top line growth but a 11% dip in the bottom line.

With smart phones becoming cheaper by the day and 3G service roll-outs in progress, OnMobile’s expertise in value-added software services should see growing demand. Even if the stake sale doesn’t go through, it may be worth holding on to the stock. A buy-back by the management, with a ceiling at Rs 85, is currently in progress.