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The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) released its latest economic forecast on November 26 that Taiwan’s economy—after resuming positive growth in the fourth quarter of this year following a downturn of 15 months—is expected to achieve 6.89-percent growth in the last quarter of this year and 8.96-percent in the first quarter of next year. The DGBAS has revised up Taiwan’s projected economic growth for 2010 to 4.39 percent, with nominal GDP exceeding NT$13 trillion for the first time ever and GDP per capita estimated at US$17,458.

DGBAS statistics indicate an upturn in private consumer spending that is projected to increase by 3.86 percent in this last quarter of 2009, bringing the total to 0.86 percent for the entire year, with food accounting for 1.49 percent and non-food items 0.77 percent. Following steady economic recovery both at home and abroad, consumer confidence is expected to grow further in 2010, expanding consumer spending by a moderate rate of 1.77 percent.

Due to stronger external demand in 2010, exports are forecasted to register a huge increase of 15.36 percent in contrast to the 20.33-percent negative growth for this year. World economic recovery has spurred the supply of new electronic products and resulted in rising OEM demand from major international businesses. Private investment is projected to increase 8.94 percent in the fourth quarter of this year and 6.85 percent next year.

On November 27, the Council for Economic Planning and Development released its economic monitoring data for October 2009, showing that strong performances by the stock market, wholesale and retail sectors and food services resulted in the highest monthly increase in industrial production index since May 2006. The monitoring indicator composite score increased from 20 points in September to 28 points in October, flashing for the first time a green indication instead of yellow-blue, and ending 17 straight months of blue indications going back to April 2008.

On November 23, the DGBAS also released unemployment figures for October. The unemployment rate was 5.96 percent (6.04 percent after adjusting for seasonal factors), with the number of unemployed totaling 653,000, marking the first time the figure fell below 6 percent since July 2009. According to an optimistic projection by the DGBAS, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate could fall below 6 percent by the end of 2009 or early 2010, and pay levels could see positive growth next year.