While civil wars are often seen as the product of unfulfilled basic

Transcription

1 Ethnic Conflicts Mediating Conflicts of Need, Greed, and Creed by I. William Zartman While civil wars are often seen as the product of unfulfilled basic needs, internal ethnic conflicts are commonly driven by private gain and collective beliefs as well. Such combinations of motives mixing need, greed, and creed pose especially complex challenges for mediators and underscore the importance of prevention over cure. 1 For once the three combine to spark and nourish a conflict, mediation becomes a tough job of uncertain entry and long duration. The Nature of Ethnic Conflict A perceived collective need that is denied is the basic condition for conflict. Denied need refers to a broad range of grievances, from relief from political repression to redress for economic deprivation. The claims of some theorists notwithstanding, it is not possible to establish a hierarchy of needs. 2 Perceived needs are flexible and satisfied at different levels under different circumstances, and needs satisfied at one time do not always remain so. Above all, satisfaction of needs like all other satisfactions is a function of expectations, which are themselves malleable. Nevertheless, conceptualizing conflict in terms of needs is useful, for it points to the basic dimension of grievances, hence of solutions. 1 These categories draw on the creative work of Paul Collier at the World Bank; see Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, Justice Seeking and Loot Seeking in Civil War (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1999); and Paul Collier, Economic Consequences of Civil War, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 51 (1999), pp See also I. William Zartman, Managing Ethnic Conflict, Foreign Policy Research Institute Wire, vol. 6, no. 5 (1998). 2 Abraham Maslow, A Theory of Human Motivation, Psychological Review, vol. 50, no. 3 (1943), pp ; Edward Azar, Protracted International Conflict: Ten Propositions, in The Understanding and Management of Global Violence, ed. Harvey Starr (New York: St. Martin s, 1999). I. William Zartman is the Jacob Blaustein Professor of International Organization and Conflict Resolution at the Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of The Johns Hopkins University. His most recent book is Peacemaking in International Conflict: Methods and Techniques, co-edited with Lewis Rasmussen (U.S. Institute of Peace, 1998). He has been mediating the civil war in Congo-Brazzaville for the Carter Center. Spring

2 ZARTMAN Nondiscrimination in meeting needs is a public good, and therefore solving a given conflict may require unhindered access to common or equal justice. But justice per se is not really one of the issues in a conflict so much as a concept through which issues and grievances can be analyzed and resolved. 3 Resolution of need-based conflict requires problem-solving skills (including detachment) not always available to parties caught up in it. To the extent that people feel themselves to be targets of repression and deprivation, discrimination can become a cause for rebellion and a source of solidarity among the rebels. 4 People may feel targeted because of their political beliefs, social position, or ascriptive membership, but whatever the cause of the discrimination, it provides the coin of identity for the conflicting party. While a conflict can be resolved in its initial stages by removing the grievances, such a response in the middle stages may not be heard by those in revolt (particularly by the leadership) as they focus their attention on the more important challenge of building unity and solidarity behind their revolt. One of the sources of a sense of discrimination is creed, referring to generalized beliefs and identity feelings. Ethnic conflicts (and, by definition, religious ones) are creed-based conflicts. Creed itself is a need, as all individuals need to feel some level of identity, through ascriptive membership and/or belief systems. Such needs vary according to the individual and context, the latter being a social phenomenon of greater interest to the present discussion than the former. People have a greater need to know who they are in some circumstances than in others. Three such circumstances have a particularly important impact on the need for identity: rapid or profound change, breakdown of other identities, and discrimination. So much has been written about these three elements that they need only be noted briefly here. Times of deep change strike at the very notion of one s identity and accentuate a need to know who one is as uncertainty swirls about. Identity at such times is not just a taking affair, but also a matter of making and doing, imposing demands on others to respect or honor the requirements of one s newly (re)affirmed identity. Creed then becomes a specific aspect of identity, as belief systems and actions give content to simple identification. Similarly, when other creeds fail, new ones arise to fill the void and gather energy from their offensive momentum. Thus, Islamic fundamentalism capitalized on the failure of Arab socialism, and ethnic identities have gained force from the failures or even just the challenges of nation-building. But selective, targeted deprivation is the most frequent cause of identity-based conflict. Collective needs for identity turn deprivation into discrimination. When deprivation hits identifiable parts of the population, or 3 I. William Zartman et al., Negotiation as a Search for Justice, International Negotiation, vol. 1, no. 1 (1996), pp Ted Gurr, Minorities at Risk (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace, 1993). 256 Orbis

3 Mediation when those parts perceive themselves to be selective targets, they take offense, using discrimination as a source of solidarity. When discrimination continues, the goals of the rebels turn from the redress of substantive grievances to procedural demands for control of the system, because redress at the hands of others is no longer trusted. Procedural demands are harder to resolve, since they can be satisfied only by a reallocation of positions as well as benefits, providing both an additional grievance and a cause for greater solidarity. And because stronger grievances and solidarity are mutually reinforcing, problem-solving becomes more difficult. Creed adds fear for security to need as a source of conflict. Not only do creed-based groups perceive discrimination in distribution (too few benefits or too much repression), but they also fear for their very existence, creating a reciprocal fear in the dominant group a vicious cycle known as the security dilemma that lies at the basis of much ethnic conflict. 5 A group (or government) feeling threatened at a low level takes measures to assure its security, thereby decreasing the security of the threatening group, which in turn takes measures to bolster its security, forcing the originally targeted group to respond, and so forth. This security dilemma best explains the vicious violence between groups that formerly lived harmoniously in Bosnia, Kosovo, Burundi, Rwanda, Congo-Brazzaville, and elsewhere. By producing the material that holds groups together and gives them solidarity, creed creates the conditions for a security dilemma to erupt, conditions not provided by need alone. In broad conceptual terms, creed-based conflicts call for access to separate or preferential justice, either to redress the discrimination or to achieve preferential treatment as demanded by the creed. Demands of the latter type are extremely difficult to satisfy because they call for compensatory justice or affirmative action, that is, positive discrimination toward the aggrieved group. Although a return to equality is less difficult to achieve, it usually is not satisfying to the rebel group, which seeks compensation for past grievances as well as removal of future ones, and in procedural as well as substantive terms. Deprivation-based grievances produce political entrepreneurs who articulate demands and organize demand-bearing groups to carry out the conflict. 6 Under their leadership the process of conflict continues its circular route: conflict aims at redress of grievances, but also establishes solidarity, which in turn is necessary for the effective pursuit of conflict. Sometimes leaders are merely the selfless agents of group demands, but in other cases 5 Barry Posner, The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict, in Ethnic Conflict and International Security, ed. Michael Brown (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993); and Stephen John Stedman, Negotiation and Mediation in Internal Conflict, in The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict, ed. Michael Brown (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1996). 6 I. William Zartman, ed., Elusive Peace: Negotiating to End Civil Wars (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1996). Spring

4 ZARTMAN their personal ambitions become a source of new demands separate from need and creed. Such greed is the basic impetus for political entrepreneurs who turn collective need into an instrument of action and solidarity. The more greed can mask itself in general (need) or specific (creed) grievances, the more it can attract a following and hide its personal nature. Greed is often not oriented toward solutions or problem-solving, but toward private gain and continuation of conflict, which is the source of its legitimation. Greedbased leaders of ethnic conflict include Slobodan Milosevic, Charles Taylor, and Rauf Denktaş. Obstacles to Mediation In most cases (two out of every three in the twentieth century), internal conflicts end in a one-sided victory rather than a negotiated compromise, but such outcomes are notoriously unstable. Victories over ethnic rebels tend merely to push them underground, where they lick wounds, build myths, and bide time until circumstances permit their resurgence. Furthermore, half of the negotiated solutions were achieved by mediation involving third parties. The challenges of negotiations go far to explain the duration of ethnic conflicts and suggest that their abiding nature stems from tactical and situational concerns rather than the two sides inherent, need-based irreconcilability. 7 The obstacles to mediation can be overcome, but only through skillful attention to their causes Elements of compromise are characteristically missing in ethnic conflict. In their demands for separate or preferential justice, ethnic rebels seek terms that are ipso facto repulsive to the other side. A formula for agreement based on a shared sense of justice is difficult to find when separate justice is demanded, and terms of trade are hard to identify since the ethnic rebels have nothing to offer to the government except an end to the rebellion. Eritrea and Kosovo present instances where the preferential demands were not palatable to the Ethiopian and Serbian governments, respectively, and where the rebels had nothing with which to buy the government s satisfaction except the possibility of ceasing its agitation. Preferential justice is simply not subject to compromise, as the debate over the legal aspects of identity in Sudan illustrates. 9 In ethnic conflict, from Algeria to Palestine to East Timor, recognition is the top and bottom line once achieved, the ethnic rebellion has won and the government lost. All these aspects make the stuff of a negotiated or mediated agreement difficult to achieve. 7 Edward Azar, The Management of Protracted Social Conflicts: Theory and Cases (Aldershot, U.K.: Dartmouth Press, 1990). 8 I. William Zartman, The Unfinished Agenda: Negotiating Internal Conflicts, in Stopping the Killing, ed. Roy Licklider (New York: New York University Press, 1993). 9 Francis Deng, War of Visions (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1995). 258 Orbis

5 Mediation 2. Elements of context are also missing. Conflicts cannot be negotiated just any time; rather, the context must lend itself to a search for a bilateral solution. Parties whether the government or rebellion that are winning or have an expectation of achieving eventual victory are not likely to be interested in coming to terms with the enemy. Normally, they need to find themselves in a mutually hurting stalemate, in which each side s hopes of victory are stymied and the continuing blockage hurts. 10 But in internal conflicts, such a stalemate is a harbinger of victory for the ethnic rebellion, since its separateness and equality are implicitly recognized. The more typical situation is a soft stalemate, which yields no solution, but rather a stable, bearable, de facto compromise, thereby preventing victory by either side and keeping the conflict alive. Such is the situation in the Western Sahara and in Palestine, conflicts of long duration. 11 In the absence of a mutually hurting stalemate to push the parties to negotiate, a mutually enticing opportunity can theoretically serve to pull them in the same direction. But, again, in internal and particularly ethnic conflicts, such an opportunity is almost always unobtainable, since procedural grievances and preferential justice leave little room for mutual enticements. 3. The elements of agency are also frequently missing. Negotiation and mediation require a valid spokesman for both sides, yet the position of spokesman is characteristically a source of conflict within the ethnic group. This is true for all three phases of ethnic revolt. In the beginning, ethnic groups tend to be pluralistic and divided, producing several leaders seeking to deal with the government in various ways and usually splitting over the question of tactics. Later, during the consolidation period, a leader seeks to unite his group behind him, but is in competition with others for the position of A mutually hurting stalemate represents victory for the ethnic rebellion. supreme spokesman. Even when the struggle seems to be won and victory or negotiations are near, break-away leaders are tempted to make a separate deal for a part of the aggrieved group on terms more favorable to the government than those the mainstream would offer. Indeed, negotiation itself can delegitimize a leader as his rivals hew to a harder line. The division between Ibrahim Rugova and the Kosovo Liberation Army, among the various Palestinian liberation groups, among the national liberation parties in Rhodesia prior to its emergence as Zimbabwe, and between the successive Eritrean liberation fronts are all examples of intra-movement struggles for 10 I. William Zartman, Ripe for Resolution (New York: Oxford University Press, 1989); I. William Zartman, Ripeness Revisited, in Conflict Resolution, ed. Alexander George and Paul Stern (Washington, D.C.: National Academy of Science, forthcoming 2000). 11 See Khadija Mohsen Finan, Le Sahara occidental (Paris: Findational nationale des sciences politiques, 1996). Spring

6 ZARTMAN ethnic spokesmanship involving debate over tactics as well as elements of greed and creed. 12 Nor are these struggles purely intra party. Each side in the conflict also contests the legitimacy of another side and of a particular person to speak for them, preferring their own candidate. Thus, each side enters into the debate over the tactical question within the other side. The struggle for leadership in Chechnya is a striking example and has served to renew and prolong that conflict Furthermore, elements of third-party entry beyond a mutually hurting stalemate are also missing. 14 Ethnic conflicts are internal affairs in which mediation is by definition perceived as meddling. Mediation automatically strengthens the rebels because it suggests that the government is unable to handle its own internal problems. It is therefore resisted by the government for procedural as well as substantive reasons. Third-party intervention to help a weaker side usually the rebellion only exacerbates the solidarity of the government side. Kosovo was a case in which humanitarian efforts to help the minority made the government feel, or claim to be, more justified in its repression. As a result, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) pursuing secondtrack diplomacy are often more likely candidates for mediation than are other governments. However, second-track diplomacy is unable to provide any of the constraints and inducements for a solution that official agencies can offer, either to block alternative paths or to reward cooperating parties. It is therefore obliged to rely on the only remaining weapon, simple persuasion, which is no more effective than the presence or absence of more attractive alternatives allows it to be. 15 Thus, the Carter Center, mediating in the Congo-Brazzaville dispute in 1999, suffered the same weakness as the special representative of the secretaries-general of the United Nations and the Organization of African Unity two years before: the inability to prevent troops from Angola from offering a better alternative to one side than reconciliation with the leaders of the other, largely ethnic parties Finally, identity and solidarity tend to be dependent on conflict. Creed requires protection (separation) or assertion (superiority), which is achieved by conflict, and conflict is also the way to achieve the solidarity necessary for effective action. As a result, normal cost-benefit calculations on which negotiation behavior is based may no longer work. 12 Barry Rubin, Revolution until Victory: Politics and History of the PLO (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1994); Stephen John Stedman, Peacemaking in Civil Wars (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 1991); Ruth Iyob, The Eritrean Struggle for Independence (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997). 13 Gail Lapidus, The War in Chechnya, in Opportunities Missed, Opportunities Seized, ed. Bruce Jentleson (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 1999). 14 Mohammed Maundi et al., Getting in the Door: Entry into Mediation (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace, forthcoming 2000). 15 I. William Zartman and Saadia Touval, Mediation in the Post Cold War Era, in Managing Global Chaos, ed. Chester Crocker, Ren Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace, forthcoming 2000). 16 I. William Zartman and Katerina Vogeli, Prevention Gained and Prevention Collapsed: Competition and Coup in the Congo, in Opportunities Missed, Opportunities Seized. 260 Orbis

7 Mediation The Need for Preventive Rather Than Remedial Action This is a formidable list of obstacles to the mediation of ethnic conflict, and some may find it so daunting that they would simply write off ethnic conflicts as protracted or primordial by nature and beyond any remedial attention. But there are many other ethnic situations that exist peaceably, without conflict, and, indeed, long periods of stability and coexistence have at previous moments interrupted most ethnic conflicts. The protracted social conflict school cannot explain these apparent exceptions, or the difference between conflict and nonconflict situations, in time or place. Even in times of profound change, competing identities, and targeted deprivation, some situations produce conflict while others do not. Explanations for this discrepancy come from two different directions. On the one hand, the contextual conditions for conflict lead to an outburst of violence only when political entrepreneurs consciously throw a match into the tinder. 17 On the other hand, conflicts have been prevented by specific measures applied before the conflict broke out. That is, third-party efforts can prevent creed-based conflicts from developing, in part through measures to block would-be political entrepreneurs. These efforts may not usually be thought of as mediation, but that merely indicates that the usual definition needs to be expanded if the challenge of containing conflict is to be met. Identifying measures that can really forestall violence is an ongoing challenge, but some that follow from the previous discussion are evident. 1. Standard-setting efforts. Mediation by human rights groups and global forums to establish criteria for creed-blind opportunity, access, and allocation, as well as for avoidance of creed-based dominance of functions, is an important and growing method to prevent perceptions of discrimination and ethnic grievances. Standards alone will not ensure nondiscrimination, of course, but by setting up visible, normative guidelines they can constitute targets and yardsticks by which actors can judge themselves and be judged. One of the most important efforts has been the Helsinki Declaration with its basket of human rights, which gave rise to a European Commissioner for Human Rights and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The Helsinki experience was adapted in the Kampala Document by the Conference on Security, Stability, Development, and Cooperation in Africa, which is even more explicit on standards for equitable ethnic treatment. 18 Critics noted at the time that the World Bank, in its programs in Rwanda in the late 1980s, could have attached standards for equitable benefits to its agricultural development programs and thus helped avoid the 17 Zartman, Managing Ethnic Conflict ; Jane Holl et al., Preventing Deadly Conflict (New York: Carnegie Corporation, 1997). 18 Olesegun Obasanjo, The Kampala Document (New York: African Leadership Forum, 1991); Francis Deng and Terrence Lyons, eds., African Reckoning (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1998); Francis Deng and I. William Zartman, Norms for Africa (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, forthcoming 2000). Spring

8 ZARTMAN genocide of the 1990s. 19 Such norms and standards are not self-implementing or self-enforcing, and so it is unrealistic to expect too much from them. But like other norms, they trumpet an ideal that is hard to ignore even if disobeyed. And as the community of obeyers grows, pressure mounts on the disobeyers. 20 Enforcement can then follow, by peers and then institutions. This is a long and bumpy process, to be sure, but once norms are established they cannot be dismissed lightly. 2. Preempting Need from Creed. Needs can also be addressed before they become creed-based conflicts. To eliminate deprivations entirely may be a counsel of perfection, but the more inequalities in the distribution of deprivations are reduced, the more manageable the challenge of preventing violence becomes. Studies have shown that populations accept austerity and structural adjustment if the changes have been fully explained beforehand and if the government can persuasively demonstrate competence. 21 Absent these conditions, IMF riots take place, which can attract targeted populations if the deprivation has been accompanied by discrimination, as in the Revolutionary United Front rebellion in Sierra Leone in the 1990s, or if specific populations are subject to neglect at a time of rising expectations, as in Chiapas in the 1990s, the Moroccan Rif in the 1950s, and Algerian Kabylia in All of these creed-based rebellions could have been avoided by proper government measures of equitable distribution. However, the mediator s role is particularly difficult, since it involves convincing sovereign governments to do what they should be doing on their own. In none of the cited cases was a third-party role as clearly indicated as the role of the government itself. In Mozambique, the National Resistance Movement (Resistencia Nacional Moçambicana ReNaMo) that fed on rural disruption and neglect was brought into dialogue with the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frente de Libertação de Moçambique FreLiMo) government by external mediation before the resistance was able to consolidate a particular ethnic base. It must be said, however, that the mediator benefited from a mutually hurting stalemate, induced in part by a local drought, that brought home the urgency of settlement to both parties Preempting Greed from Creed and Need. The role played by the pyromaniac in setting off ethnic conflagrations makes it important to separate 19 John Eriksson, An Institutional Framework for Learning from Failed States, in Evaluation and Development, ed. Robert Picciotto and Eduardo Wiesner (New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction Publishers, 1998); Rene Lemarchand, The World Bank in Rwanda (Bloomington, Ind.: University of Indiana African Studies Program, 1982). 20 Audie Klotz, Norms in International Relations (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1991). 21 Joan Nelson, Poverty, Equity and the Politics of Adjustment, in The Politics of Economic Adjustment, ed. Stephen Haggard and J. Kaufman (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995). 22 Jeanne Favret, Revolt by Excess Modernization, in Arabs and Berbers, ed. Charles Micaud and Ernest Gellner (Lexington, Mass.: Heath, 1972). 23 Ibrahim Msabaha, Negotiating and End to Mozambique s Murderous Rebellion, in Elusive Peace. 262 Orbis

9 Mediation the political entrepreneur from his potential following. The image is only figurative, since the entrepreneur is generally not known before he starts on his adventure. But the opportunities for his appeals to take hold can be reduced by the actions of either the government or external parties. Holding federation-wide elections in Yugoslavia in the late 1980s rather than separate elections in each of the republics, for example, would have reduced the opportunity for ethnic campaigning. 24 Reducing rent-seeking by enlisting diamond magnates to ban diamond sales from areas of conflict would close the opportunity to reap enormous financial gains from ethnic conflicts in Angola or Sierra Leone. 25 Some suggestions can be generic, while others must be adapted to the specific situation. But in general it is better to deter entrepreneurs at the beginning of the adventure than be faced with the need to remove them at the end. 4. Establish Confidence- and Security-Building Measures. Confidence and security are the only solutions to the security dilemma, because parties need to be shown that their fears are groundless and that security can be provided them without provoking countermeasures. Joint patrols, dialogue sessions, and enforceable laws of equal treatment are among the measures that can be used. Consider the Turkish experience in the late 1990s. After a hardline campaign against the Kurdish Labor Party (Partiya Karkere Kurdistan PKK), the Turks extracted a call for nonviolence from the captured leader, Abdullah Öcalan, while also benefiting from a public opinion survey that showed the PKK to have less Kurdish support for a separatist program than originally feared by the Turks. 26 At the same time, earthquakes in Turkey and then in Greece increased the mutual help and cooperation between the old rivals at a time when the issue of Turkish entry into the European Union provided an occasion for an official rebuff and then an apparent reconsideration by the union. In sum, a number of disparate events pointing in different directions broke the logjam in two sets of internal and international ethnic conflicts. These measures tend to be dependent on actions of the internal parties themselves, but NGOs have been successful in promoting dialogue and confidence-building measures and in training nationals to manage conflict-prone areas. 27 Specific Possibilities for Mediation Successful mediation is a matter of containing, enticing, and mending. The mediator must be able to block the impending or escalating conflict, 24 Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1995). 25 The idea is John Collier s. 26 Meltem Müftüler Baç, Addressing Kurdish Separatism in Turkey, in Theory and Practice in Ethnic Conflict Management, ed. Marc Howard Ross and Jay Rothman (New York: St. Martin s Press, 1999). 27 Harold H. Saunders, A Public Peace Process (New York: St. Martin s Press, 1999). Spring

10 ZARTMAN draw the parties away from hostile perceptions and actions, and bring them together in a more harmonious relationship. The mediator is in fact also a participant, a wielder of power who compels a recalcitrant party to make a compromise it does not want to make. 28 Mediation requires an ability to create incentives for need-based situations to receive evenhanded government attention, open opportunities for creed-based groups to overcome their fears, and close possibilities for greed-based leaders to achieve their goals by destroying other groups. Optimally, mediators need to have the power and authority to threaten the parties with endless conflict if their solutions are not accepted, and to ensure implementation if their solutions are accepted. This is a tall order, requiring the mediator to tap local resources as well as his own and to collaborate with both the government and ethnic parties. A number of areas for action can be suggested. Mediation requires more than a single act, whatever its duration. Rather, it is a process that involves the establishment of trusting relations with all parties, the opening and closing of alternatives, and the gradual withdrawal of the mediator as trust builds between the conflicting parties. All this requires a mix of strategies both to strengthen and soften the separate identities of the contending sides. The process of mediation needs to address the parties grievances, both substantive and procedural, in an effort to identify difficult compromises and compensations. Once that is done, it must focus on setting up mechanisms for handling future grievances that may arise. The situation of ethnic relations in Sri Lanka was a story of measures and backtracking in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, until the revolt of the Tamil Tigers finally broke out in unmanageable violence. 29 The Dayton Accords in 1995 were likewise followed by a year of inattention when monitored implementation could have moved the process forward. 30 Constructive ambiguity is needed for creative new solutions. Sovereignty is one of the most difficult challenges in ethnic conflict because it has long been treated as sacrosanct. However, solutions to seemingly nonnegotiable dilemmas have been crafted through looser and more creative concepts of divisible sovereignty. The 1998 Good Friday Accords in Northern Ireland, for instance, contain a provision for three overlapping jurisdictions: the Northern Irish, the British, and the Anglo-Irish. In the 1995 Dayton Accords, a Serb republic was established alongside a Muslim-Croat federation within the united state of Bosnia-Herzegovina. In Tatarstan, a 1994 agreement provided all but sovereignty for Tatarstan and all but unity within Russia The Disturbing Niceness of George Mitchell, The Economist, Apr. 11, 1998, p Michael Kuchinsky, Yielding Ground: Losses and Conflict Escalation in Sri Lankan Protracted Social Conflict, in The Understanding and Management of Global Violence; Howard Wriggins, Sri Lanka: Negotiations in a Secessionist Conflict, in Elusive Peace. 30 Richard Holbrooke, To End a War (New York: Random House, 1996). 31 P. Terrence Hopman, Disintegrating States, in Preventive Negotiation: Avoiding Conflict Escalation, ed. I. 264 Orbis

11 Mediation Not all sovereign states can be divided, but in many cases stark indivisibility can give way to creative solutions. Jerusalem and southern Sudan still await such creativity. 32 Communication and interaction are necessary ingredients in any attempt to end conflict and prevent its future occurrence. Left to themselves, ethnic communities are bound to retreat into their own myths and histories, develop an exclusivist creed, and be quick to take umbrage at any perceived slight.hence, dialogue cannot be permitted to cease. 33 To be sure, intense intercommunity dialogue has not won complete reconciliation in Israel, Ulster, or Cyprus, but it is certain that those situations would have been worse without it. 34 The question remains open as to whether personal integration, in which creed-based groups lose their importance, or communitarian Left to themselves, ethnic communities often retreat into their own myths. power-sharing and local autonomy, in which they become consolidated, is the better solution. Arguably, the second may be the temporary expedient while the first gradually works its effects. Where creed-based groups are homogeneous, contiguous, and undivided by minorities of their own, where solutions of reconciliation have been worn out, and where the conflict has gone to a point of no return, separation may be the only solution. 35 Even negotiated under the best conditions with the best attention to mechanisms for handling future problems, as in the Czech-Slovak and Ethiopian-Eritrean separations, problems are certain to arise and, as in the latter case, may break out in sustained violence. The difficulty in achieving a happy divorce points up the need to exhaust all creative solutions for cohabitation before separation is undertaken. 36 Practical Advice Where does all this leave us with regard to Kosovo, Sudan, Congo- Kinshasa, Congo-Brazzaville, Sri Lanka, and the other ethnic conflicts sure to appear over the horizon? The lessons underscore the difficulty of mediation, it goes without saying, but they also suggest that creed-based conflicts need William Zartman (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 2000). 32 Cecilia Albin, Negotiating Indivisible Goods: The Case of Jerusalem, The Jerusalem Journal of International Relations, vol. 13, no. 1 (1991), pp ; Deng, War of Visions. 33 Saunders, A Public Peace Process. 34 Ross and Rothman, Theory and Practice in Ethnic Conflict Management. 35 Chaim Kaufmann, Possible and Impossible Solutions to Ethnic Civil Wars, International Security, Spring 1996, pp Separation cannot be treated here in depth. See Lawrence Farley, Plebiscites and Sovereignty (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1986); I. William Zartman, Putting Humpty Dumpty Together Again, in The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict, ed. David Lake and Donald Rothchild (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998); Chaim Kaufmann, Intervention in Ethnic and Ideological Civil Wars, Security Studies, January 1996, pp Spring

12 ZARTMAN not be permanent and irresoluble, but rather may be susceptible to careful analysis and intervention. The first such lesson is: Do not repress your minorities, or they just may end up being a majority in a territory you claim. Minorities can regroup geographically if they do not already inhabit contiguous territory, forming a majority in an area for which they then claim self-determination. Similarly, groups that break away with their territory in the name of self-determination may well find their homogeneity illusory and face claims from minorities within their own midst. Once self-determination enters the agenda, it can become a runaway locomotive. Secondly, ethnic relations require tending lest mending become necessary, and mending lest rending become inevitable. There is no substitute for good governance, accountable democracy, and normal politics. Thirdly, what history has joined together, let not momentary passions put asunder. Secession is costly, rarely as satisfying as promised, and almost never preferable to a solution based on autonomy and federalism. Fourthly, court-mandated counseling is preferable to divorce, and if divorce should occur, do not count on alimony. Since courts are not available to handle internal or interstate disputes, states alone and in community need to take advantage of available official and unofficial mediators to help maintain their unity and harmony. If a state does break up, the breakaway part should not count on any largesse from its former sovereign, which will be preoccupied with restoring its torn soul and honor. Fifthly, find ways to improve your own status that do not damage the status of others. Both ethnic communities and their opponents, be they governments or other ethnic communities, need to adopt the uncomfortable practice of thinking of each others needs while pursuing their own creed and needs. Obviously, an ethnic conflict tends to reinforce self-centeredness, but that only makes concern for the other side more necessary. 37 Lastly, if you have to call in the cops, be sure they shoot the gangsters and not the victims. Peacekeeping forces should strive to make things better, not worse. There is often an auto-da-fé quality to measures punishing creed-based conflict, in which the greed-based actors are the last to feel the punishment. Only now is awareness growing about how expensive remedial conflict management is by comparison to preventive action, in terms of money, lives, and productivity. 38 The high costs of punishment and rehabilitation by the world s policemen, whether from the United Nations, NATO, regional organizations, or the United States, should lead them to devote more attention and energy to preventing ethnic conflicts before they erupt into violence. 37 Jeffrey Rubin, Dean G. Pruitt, and Sung Hee Kim, Social Conflict (New York: McGraw Hill, 1994). 38 Michael Brown and Richard Rosecrance, eds., The Costs of Conflict (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 1999). 266 Orbis

9 Sources and Settlements of Ethnic Conflicts I. William Zartman In understanding and dealing with violent internal conflicts, it is important to begin with a conceptualization of their causal ingredients

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