I y'all haven't figured it out by now, the mainstream media has an agenda, they hate you, and lie constantly. When they do cover a story, they twist it. When they need crisis actors, they find them easily.

Cliffs: there is actually good news in the Coronavirus numbers that the news will never tell you. If you don’t have the interest level to follow the actual numbers, there are some summaries below.

So, “Doug Junior” aka “Murray Anderson” is accusing me of some stuff, but what is really wrong with his accusations is that he obviously doesn’t know what “growing exponentially” means. A simplified definition is as follows: A percentage growth rate that remains constant each period.

OK, I’ll admit, that isn’t a perfect definition, but it is good enough for our purposes here. Anyway, on 3/30/2020, I posted the following:

Clearly, we have a declining percentage growth rate here, so no indication of exponential growth.

On 4/3/2020, I posted the following:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick

If anyone is still watching the numbers: Total US cases have looked exponential the last several days, but doubling every 5+ days, not anywhere close to the 2-3 days folks were projecting a week or so ago.

NJ is expected to peak in 5-6 days from now, depending on what metric you want to use.

Apparently, Junior has decided that what this means is that I think the number of cases has “never” doubled in 3 days. That is pure unadulterated bullshit, as this post says nothing of the sort.

Junior then introduces an article that he thinks “proves” me wrong, as follows:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murray

This is from a week ago.

If it were to keep doubling every 3 days, then current measures aren’t enough

I could go on with this drivel for a while, but let’s look at some facts:
The article on which Junior wants to rest his hat was published on 3/27/2020, and talking about the fact that total US cases reported doubled from 50,000 to 100,000 from 3/24/2020 to 3/27/2020. However, when I made my first post on the topic on 3.30/2020, additional data on the growth of US cases already falling from the mid 20s to the mid teens as growth rates.

In fact, I even said that the growth rates for a time “looked exponential” in this post of 4/3/2020 trying to be fair:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick

If anyone is still watching the numbers: Total US cases have looked exponential the last several days, but doubling every 5+ days, not anywhere close to the 2-3 days folks were projecting a week or so ago.
NJ is expected to peak in 5-6 days from now, depending on what metric you want to use.

Let’s look at the data:
3/30: 14.1%
3/31: 15.1%
4/1: 14.0%
4/2: 13.9%

Still declining a little, but we did reach 200K cases on 4/1, 5 days after reaching 100K cases. Let’s look at the subsequent data to see if we have an exponential growth, doubling every 5 days?

4/3: 13.2%
4/4: 12.3%
4/5: 8.1%
4/6: 8.7 %

So, growth rates are still declining, and we failed to double cases in 5 days. In fact, we would need a pretty good jump tomorrow in new cases to have a doubling in 6 days, it looks like this doubling requiring 7 days is a lot more likely.

So, “Doug Junior” aka “Murray Anderson” is accusing me of some stuff, but what is really wrong with his accusations is that he obviously doesn’t know what “growing exponentially” means. A simplified definition is as follows: A percentage growth rate that remains constant each period.

Offhand it seems like Doug Junior has a better grasp of the concept than you do:

Quote:

Exponential growth is a specific way that a quantity may increase over time. It occurs when the instantaneous rate of change (that is, the derivative) of a quantity with respect to time is proportional to the quantity itself.

The growth of a bacterial colony is often used to illustrate it. One bacterium splits itself into two, each of which splits itself resulting in four, then eight, 16, 32, and so on. The rate of increase keeps increasing because it is proportional to the ever-increasing number of bacteria. Growth like this is observed in real-life activity or phenomena, such as the spread of virus infection, the growth of debt due to compound interest, and the spread of viral videos.

Notice they specifically mention viral infections as being examples of exponential growth. Also notice that there is nothing in there about a "constant percentage."

Offhand it seems like Doug Junior has a better grasp of the concept than you do:

Notice they specifically mention viral infections as being examples of exponential growth. Also notice that there is nothing in there about a "constant percentage."

Who is "they"?

Also this:

Quote:

Exponential growth is a specific way that a quantity may increase over time. It occurs when the instantaneous rate of change (that is, the derivative) of a quantity with respect to time is proportional to the quantity itself.

Sure sounds like a constant percentage growth to me.

So, do you think the rate of increase in US Coronavirus infections is exponential?

Offhand it seems like Doug Junior has a better grasp of the concept than you do:

Notice they specifically mention viral infections as being examples of exponential growth. Also notice that there is nothing in there about a "constant percentage."

I just took a whiz, and I do my best thinking with my Johnson in hand. And I became curious to see how one would mathematically demonstrate how this:

Quote:

A percentage growth rate that remains constant each period.

Differs from this:

Quote:

Exponential growth is a specific way that a quantity may increase over time. It occurs when the instantaneous rate of change (that is, the derivative) of a quantity with respect to time is proportional to the quantity itself.

Please explain, and show your work.

Hint: What happens in the first definition as the duration of a period approaches limit zero?

Explaining exponential growth is actually easy, because you see it every single day. Let's say there's one idiot you know. They talk to a person, and now there are two idiots! But the next day there are four idiots. Then eight the next. Then there are seven.

Seven? That's not exponential!

Well, you see, they all went out to recruit more idiots, but everyone they met hadn't watched CNN for years.

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If by "exactly supports" then I agree, and I had to go back and watch that after reading your post. This doctor is observant. I'm seeing some sort of consensus building in the zeitgeist concerning the nature of this disease. It's oxygen deprivation that is the key to unlocking the course of treatment.

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They're pushing hard already for keeping lock downs until June or later even with reports that NC is way below all estimates of sickness and deaths(like several hundred percent less).
I'm not saying everything needs to open back up 100% but they need to relax some shutdowns with restrictions in place, ease the burden on the economy some with minimal risk.