By 2030, 25% of U.S. traffic could be driverless

According to a recent study by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), as many as a quarter of all miles driven in the U.S. could be undertaken by shared, electric self-driving cars. The study says that three trends will converge – car sharing, autonomous vehicles, and electric cars – forever changing the landscape of auto-industry.

This development will be more prevalent in cities with over a million people, where consumers will find it more economically viable to share commutes, traffic congestion will benefit from intelligent self-driving systems, and pollution is a more visible factor. According to Justin Rose, a partner at BCG who deals with digital developments for industrial companies:

“The automotive industry is on the brink of a major transformation, and it’ll be here faster than people realize. For millions of Americans living in large cities, the next vehicle they purchase may be the last car they ever own.”

This will have a huge impact on the country’s auto-industry, where as many as 5 million cars will be replaced by approximately 4.7 autonomous vehicles. According to BCG’s study, the average Chicago consumer could trim his travel costs by $7,000 per year if he ditched his own vehicle and shared rides with others in an autonomous electric car. This is an economic incentive that will be hard for many city-dwellers to resist.

BCG says that up to 925 billion miles travelled on U.S. roads could be poached by the convergence of these three trends in the next 13 years. This will make car dealers “less relevant” and turn “hundreds of billions of dollars worth of industry assets” into liabilities.

In a statement, the consultancy claimed:

“Automakers and parts suppliers would face the most profound challenge to their business model in a century. This shift undermines the current industry business model.”

Disclosure

Dominion holds a number of companies in its Global Trends Managed Fund that are involved in the trends discussed in this articles, including Google, Baidu, and Delphi Automotive.

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