Interpretation of IPCC AR5 Scenarios under better understanding of climate sensitivity assessments, and the implications of INDCs in terms of 2℃ target

Apr. 22, 2015

Interpretation of IPCC AR5 Scenarios under better understanding of climate sensitivity assessments, and the implications of INDCs in terms of 2℃ target

As submissions of national emission reduction target(INDCs: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) beyond 2020 proceed, emission gaps between INDCs and "2℃ target" that to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels have been pointed out internationally.

Under such circumstances, understanding latest IPCC report to comprehend a pathway to 2℃ target is essential. Inaccurate understanding of scientific knowledge might lead to the distortion, or at worst, failure of international negotiation.

In this report we have assembled knowledge about climate sensitivity in the latest IPCC report to assess allowed cumulative emissions, concentrations and emission pathways. We have also projected global emissions and compared them with emission pathways towards 2℃ target based on INDCs submitted as of March 2015.