After First Glance, North Korea’s Missiles Not As Fearsome

North Korea’s rocket lifts of from its launch pad on Wednesday. This photo was taken of a monitor at a launch center by KCNA, North Korea’s official news agency, and provided to international news agencies for broader distribution.

North Korea’s rocket shot on Wednesday may have been the greatest success it has yet had in a decades-long effort to develop the technology for long range missiles. But there’s also less to it than meets the eye.

A technical report published by the Rand Corporation in September concludes that the threat posed by North Korea’s missile program is not as significant as widely portrayed. It says the main driver the North Korea regime is political: “to create the impression of a serious missile threat and thereby gain strategic leverage, fortify the North Korean regime’s domestic power, and deter other countries, particularly the Republic of Korea and the United States, from military action.”

The author of the study, Markus Schiller, a missile expert at Schmucker Technologie in Germany, said in an e-mail interview that Wednesday’s launch doesn’t change his conclusions about the North’s missile capabilities or intentions.

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“There is no need to reconsider any conclusions or recommendations of the report,” he said. He noted this is the country’s only success of long-range technology from five launches over nearly 15 years and was a “rocket that uses old Russian engines.”

“I would say that a North Korean cargo ship, or an airliner from Koryo Air, is more dangerous,” he added, referring to the North’s state-run airline. “If they wanted an ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missile], they have to develop a new rocket, using different technology. This would take a very long time, require a lot of work, and cost a lot of money.”

He said the rocket that North Korea launched on Wednesday is not powerful enough to carry a nuclear warhead very far. Its satellite payload may have only weighed 100 kilograms (220 pounds), while a warhead would be five to seven times heavier. “The whole rocket’s performance is too low to be used as an ICBM, even in three stage configuration,” he said.

Using the Soviet-era technology that was the basis for the rocket fired on Wednesday, Mr. Schiller estimates North Korea would need to build a rocket that’s two to three times larger to hit the U.S. The alternative, he said, is to use different technology and more efficient propellants. “But this is a completely new rocket,” he said.

He added that North Korea also needs to demonstrate that it can design complex warheads that can withstand the heat and acceleration that an ICBM goes through when it re-enters the atmosphere.

In his paper for Rand, Mr. Schiller recommends that policymakers in other countries not get overly concerned about the North’s missile tests. “Don’t elevate the North Korean threat,” he wrote. “This is exactly what the North Korean regime wants.”

That has sparked some criticism from with other analysts and North Korea watchers. But even the most hawkish analysts say that North Korea is far from posing a real danger with its long-range missiles.

Bruce Bechtol, a former U.S. military intelligence analyst who now teaches at Angelo State University in Texas, said that North Korea has several hurdles to overcome, including miniaturizing a warhead and deploying its long-range missiles in a way that can’t be detected. “It takes several days for them to set it up,” he said. “If see them setting it up, we could take it out.”

And he noted that, if North Korea wants want to sell the technology to countries like Iran, they’ll face difficulties shipping parts by sea and air. “They still have several issues,” Mr. Bechtol said.