Pick: Lily Rabe
All of these performances are Tony worthy, but I suspect Lily Rabe will be the one to take the award. Her work as Portia in Merchant surprised everyone, and for that reason, she may well be the favorite. Though it's possible that Francis McDormand may take it instead, so we'll see...

Nominees:
Brian Bedford, The Importance of Being Earnest
Bobby Cannavale, The Motherf**ker with the Hat
Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart
Al Pacino, The Merchant of Venice
Mark Rylance, Jerusalem

Pick: Al Pacino
I’ve noted before that this year’s Tony nominations had surprisingly few big-name movie stars, but Pacino made waves for his portrayal of Shylock, so I’m not that surprised to find him here. I’ll admit that I actually hated Pacino in this production. I hated him in the 2004 film, too, and most of it has to do with the fact that he has a tendency to play his own unique Pacino rhythm, rather than the rhythm of the speech (and in Shakespeare, even with the prose characters, the rhythm of the speech is super important). However, I suspect that he’ll win this one anyway—it was a pretty big risk for him to take on the role, and there’s always politics to consider and whatnot.

Pick: Lily Rabe
All of these performances are Tony worthy, but I suspect Lily Rabe will be the one to take the award. Her work as Portia in Merchant surprised everyone, and for that reason, she may well be the favorite. Though it's possible that Francis McDormand may take it instead, so we'll see...

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

Nominees:
Norbert Leo Butz, Catch Me If You Can
Josh Gad, The Book of Mormon
Joshua Henry, The Scottsboro Boys
Andrew Rannells, The Book of Mormon
Tony Sheldon, Priscilla Queen of the Desert

Pick: Josh Gad
Norbert Leo Butz is one of my favorite working actors—he’s always great, and I’ve been following his career since he played the MC in the road show of Cabaret way back in the late 90s—but I suspect Josh Gad will win for Mormon. Not undeservedly so, but perhaps against my (and some other people’s) better judgment.

Pick: Sutton Foster
Another tricky category, especially since a number of the nominees already have Tonys. Sutton Foster is a Broadway favorite, though, and Reno in the classic Anything Goes is an excellent role to showcase her considerable talents. Though she began her career being known primarily as a dancer—and she’s a spectacular one at that—she has proved herself over the years to be quite the triple threat.

Pick: John Benjamin Hickey
I love all these guys, so it’s tough to narrow it to one. Joe Mantello may not win Best Actor for The Normal Heart since he’s up against Pacino, but John Benjamin Hickey may well take Best Featured.

Pick: Ellen Barkin
Come to think of it, I’m pretty certain that The Normal Heart is going to sweep most of the acting awards for straight plays.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

Nominees:
Colman Domingo, The Scottsboro Boys
Adam Godley, Anything Goes
John Larroquette, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Forrest McClendon, The Scottsboro Boys
Rory O'Malley, The Book of Mormon

Pick: John Larroquette
It’s possible that How to Succeed won’t take home many awards this year, but John Larroquette might at least snag Best Featured Actor in a Musical. I’m really glad that Rory O’Malley was nominated, though—he was the most surprising performance in Book of Mormon—so I’ll admit that I’m kind of pulling for him over Larroquette.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

Nominees:
Laura Benanti, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Tammy Blanchard, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Victoria Clark, Sister Act
Nikki M. James, The Book of Mormon
Patti LuPone, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown

Pick: Laura Benanti
Laura Benanti is only 31, but she’s had a long and successful career on Broadway, beginning with when she was cast as Maria’s understudy in The Sound of Music when she was 18 (she took over the role full-time a year later). She’s also won both the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle Awards for Best Featured Actress in a Musical, so it’s likely that she’ll take the Tony as well.

Best Revival of a Play

Nominees:Arcadia by Tom StoppardThe Importance of Being Earnest by Oscar WildeThe Merchant of Venice by William ShakespeareThe Normal Heart by Larry Kramer

Pick:The Normal Heart
This one is going to be a tough call this year. Personally, I’d like Arcadia to win—it’s a beautiful, lucid production of a difficult and wonderful play—but I know it’s unlikely to. All of these productions were wonderful, though, so it’s going to be a close race. I’m think I’m going to pin my prediction on The Normal Heart, though. It’s got a lot going for it: It’s a well-done revival of an important play, it was directed by Joel Grey and George C. Wolfe, and it’s got a star-studded cast.

Best Revival of a Musical

Nominees:Anything GoesHow to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying

Pick:Anything Goes
I was surprised by the fact that there were only two nominees in this category this year; I guess it wasn’t a great year for revivals. As much as I’m pulling for How to Succeed, my bet’s on Anything Goes, which has seen nothing but good reviews since opening night.

Best Play

Nominees:Good People by David Lindsay-AbaireJerusalem by Jez ButterworthThe Motherf**ker with the Hat by Stephen Adly GuirgisWar Horse by Nick Stafford

Pick:Jerusalem
I’m actually really pulling for the World War I epic War Horse. I have never felt so strongly for a set of puppets before in my life, but I was a train wreck by the end of that one. However, puppets are not something regularly seen on Broadway, and for that reason, I suspect it won’t win. I feel okay about Jerusalem, though; Jez Butterworth is a phenomenal playwright, and the production, which features Mark Rylance and Mackenzie Crook (a.k.a. the pirate with the wooden eye from Pirates of the Caribbean), is brilliant.

Best Musical

Nominees:Catch Me If You CanThe Scottsboro BoysSister ActThe Book of Mormon

Pick:The Book of Mormon
I will be very, VERY surprised if anything other than The Book of Mormon wins Best Musical. It is both popular and good (two things which often don’t go together), and it’s definitely made the biggest splash out of all the nominees this year. Also, I really, really want to see the South Park guys win a Tony.