Long Range Tracking: Annabelle Comes Home, Plus Post-Avengers Updates

This week’s report takes an early look at the anticipated continuation of the Conjuring franchise, the third film in the Annabelle spin-off series.

We’ve also included a handful of May updates in the chart below, many of which come in the wake of Avengers: Endgame‘s historic ongoing performance. As is common in these types of market-breaking circumstances, tracking for select upcoming titles may be more volatile than usual in the weeks ahead.

Annabelle Comes HomeOpening Weekend Range: $35 – 45 million

PROS:

The Conjuring universe films have earned consistently strong box office returns thanks to fan goodwill, with the most recent entry (The Nun) earning $117.5 million domestically off a $53.8 million opening weekend.

Stars of the main Conjuring films, Vera Farmiga and Patrick Wilson, are set to join this third Annabelle-specific release, which could bring out a few more fans than the doll’s previous “solo” movies.

The horror genre continues to be a stalwart for the industry, and a relative lack of direct competition throughout July should allow a healthy runway for this sequel provided positive word of mouth.

CONS:

Following Ma and Child’s Play in June, this will mark the third horror/thriller release of the month. That fact, combined with close proximity to the Independence Day holiday a few days after opening, could create minor back-loading.

Most franchises reach a saturation point, if not outright fatigue, after a certain point. Pre-release reviews could be key toward preventing that for this title, the seventh film in the Conjuring universe (counting The Curse of La Llorona).

8-Week Tracking

Release Date

Title

3-Day Wide Release Tracking

% Chg from Last Week

Domestic Total Forecast

% Chg from Last Week

Estimated Location Count

Distributor

5/10/2019

The Hustle

$15,500,000

7%

$44,000,000

7%

2,750

Mirror Films / MGM

5/10/2019

Pokemon: Detective Pikachu

$55,000,000 – $79,000,000

-18%

$215,000,000

-14%

4,100

Warner Bros.

5/10/2019

Poms

$9,000,000

-5%

$38,000,000

-5%

2,700

STX

5/10/2019

Tolkien

n/a

n/a

1,300

Disney / Fox Searchlight

5/17/2019

A Dog’s Journey

$13,000,000

13%

$46,700,000

13%

3,000

Universal

5/17/2019

John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum

$37,000,000

$106,000,000

3,200

Lionsgate / Summit

5/17/2019

The Sun Is Also a Star

$10,000,000

-20%

$29,000,000

-19%

2,800

Warner Bros.

5/24/2019

Aladdin

$66,000,000

-18%

$185,000,000

-16%

–

Disney

5/24/2019

Booksmart

n/a

n/a

–

Annapurna Pictures

5/24/2019

BrightBurn

$10,000,000

NEW

$23,000,000

NEW

–

Sony / Columbia

5/31/2019

Godzilla: King of the Monsters

$54,000,000

$144,000,000

–

Warner Bros.

5/31/2019

Ma

$24,000,000

$63,000,000

–

Universal

5/31/2019

Rocketman

$37,000,000

$165,000,000

–

Paramount

6/7/2019

Dark Phoenix

$47,000,000

$113,000,000

–

Fox

6/7/2019

Late Night

n/a

n/a

Amazon Studios

6/7/2019

The Secret Life of Pets 2

$80,000,000

$263,000,000

–

Universal

6/14/2019

Men In Black International

$39,000,000

$107,000,000

–

Sony / Columbia

6/14/2019

Shaft (2019)

$31,000,000

$100,000,000

–

Warner Bros.

6/21/2019

Anna

n/a

n/a

Lionsgate / Summit

6/21/2019

Child’s Play (2019)

$17,000,000

$42,500,000

–

Orion Pictures

6/21/2019

Toy Story 4

$113,000,000

$390,000,000

–

Disney / Pixar

6/28/2019

Yesterday

n/a

n/a

–

Universal

6/28/2019

Annabelle Comes Home

$39,000,000

NEW

$101,000,000

NEW

–

Warner Bros. / New Line

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