There Is Now No Chance George RR Martin's Books Will Outrun HBO's 'Game of Thrones'

Trying to get the bad news out of the way early on in the year, George RR Martin’s publisher for A Song of Ice and Fire, HarperCollins, has officially confirmed that no, 2015 would not see the release of The Winds of Winter, the long-awaited sixth book in the series. Even though they tried very hard to promote a series of Westerosi prequel novellas being released, the simple fact remains, HBO’s Game of Thrones will end long before Martin ever finishes writing his story.

It’s not as if this is a terribly new thought, but with the announcement that no, we won’t even get a new book in 2015, the timetable for making HBO’s Game of Thrones work with the release timetable of A Song of Ice and Fire is now mathematically impossible.

To date, these have been the release years of the books in the Ice and Fire series:

A Game of Thrones (1996)

A Clash of Kings (1998)

A Storm of Swords (2000)

A Feast for Crows (2005)

A Dance with Dragons (2011)

As you can see, once upon a time, George RR Martin was able to get out new books every two years for a while. If he was still on that timetable, we wouldn't be having this discussion, but now, his writing schedule has ballooned, with a five year gap between books three and four, and a six year gap between four and five. Now, with no 2015 release date, we’re looking toward at least a five year gap between five and six if it is released in 2016, though it could easily be six years, if it’s pushed until 2017. Given that with the show’s huge popularity, Martin is busier and under more pressure than ever, it stands to reason that writing may take even longer than in the past.

The problem? Trying to rectify this with the schedule of HBO’s Game of Thrones, which needs its own timetable explanation.

Season 1 (2011) – Book 1

Season 2 (2012) – Book 2

Season 3 (2013) – Book 3, Part 1

Season 4 (2014) – Book 3, Part 2, few elements from Books 4 and 5

Season 5 (2015) – Elements from Books 4 and 5, possible elements from unreleased Book 6

And then what?

Even giving Martin the benefit of the doubt to finish The Winds of Winter in 2016, and having the showrunners stretch existing material out, that still means that mathematically, there’s no way the show can continue using material from Martin’s books. Here are some theoretical future seasons:

Season 6 (2016) – The rest of Books 4 and 5, elements from unreleased Book 6

But after this, even assuming that Book 6 material could be stretched out over essentially four seasons, and also assuming Martin gets Book 6 out in 2016, this is just a dead end. There is no way on earth that Martin will finish Book 7, A Dream of Spring, by 2018/2019, even using this incredibly generous schedule.

This will leave the show in an odd place, creatively. And there will be really only two options going forward. Either:

1) Martin will “guide” the showrunners through the last book(s), giving them everything from specific to broad plotlines, allowing the show to remain faithful to his vision for the series, but ultimately spoiling his own books, in effect.

2) Martin lets the showrunners forge their own path in the universe, and write essentially a “show ending” while he writes a “book ending.” This would save him from having the show essentially spoil a series he’s been working on for two decades, but it could produce some odd mutations near the end of the story.

The first option, sad as it may make book readers, seems like the more likely answer. Mainly, because though there will obviously have to be some leeway with plot points if there simply is no source material to draw on, some of the larger twists of the series seem like they just aren't flexible. For example, the mystery of Jon Snow’s mother has been more or less solved by hardcore fans for years now, and the answer to that question is something that completely alters the dynamic of the entire universe. There could be no “two versions” of that reveal that would make any amount of sense.

It’s a strange place for a show/book series to be in, because few other shows follow their source material so closely. Hits like Dexter and The Walking Dead have gone far outside the bounds of their source material, and (mostly) did well for themselves as a result. But the success of Game of Thrones is so closely tied in with Martin’s books, from everything from plot twists to individual lines of dialogue, that it’s hard to imagine a future for the show without him guiding it directly, either from the page of a published book, or simply telling the showrunners what to do next. But again, taking on that role will cause the books to be delayed even further.

There are a few longshot ideas to extend Game of Thrones out even more, and perhaps allow the books to catch up that way. The show could take a literal break, switching to an every-other-year schedule, or it could have an interlude that adapts some of the prequel stories from the Ice and Fire universe. But neither seems like a terribly good solution, and the only way to run out the clock seems to be to stretch out existing material. But that comes with its own set of problems, as it could make series feel injected with filler and fluff.

There are no real good answers here. No one wants Martin to rush and produce sub-par work. But him telling his story through the TV show first and the books second seems like a sad turn as well. That may very well be what has to happen, however, and for the first time, book readers and show watchers will be surprised and shocked together, as the show moves into completely uncharted territory.

Update: Some fans are telling me that Martin has already consulted with HBO to give details as to what's going to happen with the series. But I think "details" are a stretch, given the exact quote:

"I can give them the broad strokes of what I intend to write, but the details aren't there yet. I’m hopeful that I can not let them catch up with me.”

That was from a year and a half ago, well ahead of the "No Winds of Winter in 2015" news.

I've also heard that Martin has told them "how it all ends" in his mind, if god forbid, something happened to him before he finished writing, but again, there are a huge host of blanks to fill in, and this idea that Martin has already spilled every detail about the upcoming books to HBO is wrong, as I doubt he even knows all the details himself yet, given where he's at in his writing. If this "broad strokes" framework is in place, that does line up with option one above, but the showrunners will have to either wring more details out of him, or make things up themselves. Not that they've done a bad job of that when they've had to do it so far.