For two months in a row, an economic index measuring the manufacturing economy of the Inland Empire has been hinting at a weakening sector.

But it takes three months to make a trend.

And in September, the regional purchasing manager’s index broke out of its slump, soaring into the zone where economists see growth.

“That might have been a blip in the screen,” said Barbara Sirotnik, director of the Institute of Applied Research at Cal State San Bernardino, referring to the low index readings in August and July.

“We will have to see,” she said, in a telephone interview.

Although the normally cautious purchasing managers grew more optimistic about the economy last month, that was before the gridlock in Washington resulted in the first shutdown of government services in 17 years.

“This uncertainty (this month) is going to have a chilling effect on hiring,” Sirotnik said. “This uncertain environment does not inspire confidence” for businesses to hire or plan expansions.

The September PMI for the combined San Bernardino and Riverside county area registered 53 on a scale where above 50 means growth in manufacturing.

Given the variability of this index, “it will take another two months above 50 before we can confidently forecast that the manufacturing sector is back in the growth mode,” Sirotnik and project coordinator Lori Aldana wrote in the September PMI report released Wednesday.

In this index, a figure of 42.2 or higher, is a sign that the Inland Empire’s overall economy is growing.

The last time the regional PMI registered below the 42.2 level was in October 2009, suggesting that the economy for the two-county area has enjoyed 48 months of continuous growth, the report said.

Purchasing managers in September continued to be cautious about the future state of the local economy.

In September, 31 percent had predicted that the economy will be weaker in the coming quarter, down from 40 percent last month.

About a quarter of the purchasing managers, 24 percent, believe the local economy will become stronger by the next quarter and 45 percent believe the local economy will remain unchanged.

In September 2012, 12 percent believed the economy would strengthen and 42 percent predicted the economy would be weaker.

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