China's poultry industry hit hard by bird flu

Steven Mufson

The chicken coop was empty at the northern Beijing home of a man who gave only his surname, Bai. On a normal day, he sells 20 to 30 chickens from the wooden structure that faces the dusty street, putting aside money to buy an apartment in his native Sichuan.

But with the outbreak of bird flu, Bai stopped selling birds two weeks ago. A local official had come by to make sure he was closed. Bai, who was making $16 to $32 a day selling the birds from Hebei, said he did not know how he would support his family.

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China bird flu patient recovers

Chinese authorities are investigating the possibility of the human-to-human spread of the H7N9 bird flu virus, as a patient in Shanghai makes a full recovery.

He might not be open for business any time soon. The Chinese state news agency reported 14 new cases of bird flu were identified on Tuesday and two more people died, bringing the total number of cases to 77, with 16 dead since March 31.

Although first discovered in Shanghai and neighbouring provinces, this strain of bird flu, the H7N9 virus, has broken out in several places, including Beijing.

Industry impacted: A man carries a basket of newborn ducklings before he incinerates them in a stove at a duck farm in Zhangzhou. Photo: AFP

The government is urging people to help halt the spread of the disease, most importantly closing down chicken markets.

So far, it does not appear this strain has spread from person to person. But one new case involves a four-year-old who has tested positive without showing symptoms; a World Health Organisation official in Geneva said the child might have caught it from ''close and prolonged contact'' with another patient.

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''I think we're in unknown territory,'' said Peter Hotez, dean of the national school of tropical medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. ''The risk is that the H7N9 virus mutates so that it no longer just jumps from birds to people, but starts to go from people to people as in all the big flu pandemics.

No escape: Ducklings climb out of a stove at a Zhangzhou duck farm, which is culling 400,000 a week. Photo: AFP

The bird flu, which has killed more than one in five of those who fall ill, poses a political test of the Chinese government. In 2002, an epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome broke out in Guangdong but the government did not report it to the World Health Organisation until February 2003, after reports appeared elsewhere.

Ultimately, SARS infected 8273 people and killed 775 in 37 countries. Now, the focus is on whether newly installed President Xi Jinping and provincial and local leaders try to play down the outbreak to avoid its economic impact.

And that impact could be considerable. Since reports of flu surfaced two weeks ago, China's poultry sector has sustained losses of more than $1.6 billion, the National Poultry Industry Association said.

''So far, the government's management of this outbreak has largely been seen as positive,'' said Scott Rosenstein of the Eurasia Group. ''Chinese health authorities have been sharing information with the international community and communicating case information in a timely manner.

''H7N9 in China's densely populated political capital … increases the stakes and difficulty of withholding information.''