Monday, March 31, 2014

Saharan dust is dragged up from Africa and into northern Europe in this satellite image posted to Sat24.com.

When soggy, green Northern Ireland gets coated by red, Saharan dust, the locals get slightly perturbed.
The
dust is being pumped northward into the United Kingdom as winds aloft
flow from the south to southeast instead of the normal west-to-east
direction, says weather.com senior meteorologist Jon Erdman.
An expansive blocking area of high pressure is stretching from eastern
Europe to southern Greenland, and that's working in tandem with a strong
southward dip in the jet stream centered just west of the Iberian
Peninsula.
As a result, northern Europe has turned hazy with Saharan dust filling the air in some areas, according to a BBC report.(PHOTOS: NASA Captures Weather Disasters From Space)
The dust lingers in the air until something can knock it down – rain,
usually. When rain arrives, it mixes with the dust particles and falls
as "dirty rain," covering cars and angering residents, writes 4News.com.
Even U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron was affected when his car was covered by a dusty residue, according to a Metro report.
It could be several days before rain knocks the dust out of the air. The dust could reach Iceland before the pattern changes.
"This upper-level pattern may persist through mid-week before the flow over Africa becomes more westerly," Erdman said.

Saharan dust reaching another continent isn't as strange as it may
seem. The red dust sometimes makes an appearance in the United States.
Saharan
dust is commonly transported westward across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean in the summer months during hurricane season, Erdman said. This
produces hazy sunrises and sunsets in the Caribbean Sea and even,
occasionally, into parts of Florida.MORE: Incredible Views of Dust Over the Atlantic Ocean

Region affected: Northern Plains and parts of Upper Midwest

Timing: Now through Tuesday

Blizzard conditions ongoing

Winter Alerts

48-Hour Snowfall Forecast

Monday Night Forecast

Tuesday Forecast

Winter Storm Xenia continues to rage across the
Northern Plains with high winds and heavy snow, sending March out with a
roar especially in the Dakotas and parts of Minnesota. Blizzard warnings continue for parts of the region as the storm continues.
Tornadoes were reported Monday afternoon in the warm air immediately ahead of the cold front associated with Xenia. Click here for more on the severe weather threat.
Here are the details on the rest of Xenia's path.

Timing

Monday night: Snow
ends from west to east in the Dakotas, but persists in northern
Minnesota and expands into western Minnesota. A thin band of freezing
rain is possible in parts of central and northern Minnesota. Rain may
change to freezing rain or sleet, then snow in eastern Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin by dawn, including the Twin Cities.

Tuesday: Lingering snow and some wind, diminishing late in the day in parts of the northern Great Lakes.

Snow, wind impacts

Snowfall: Storm total accumulations of over a foot possible in parts of North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

Ice potential: A
narrow zone in parts of central, north-central and northeast Minnesota
may see a brief period of sleet and freezing rain. Ice accumulations are
not expected to be significant.

Blizzard potential: The
combination of high pressure over the Canadian Prairies and moderately
strong low pressure tracking from the Corn Belt to the Great Lakes will
continue to produce blizzard or near-blizzard conditions in a large
swath of the Dakotas and parts of west-central and northwest Minnesota
into Monday night and possibly early Tuesday.

Wind chills: Subzero
wind chills are likely across much of the Dakotas and northern
Minnesota Monday night into Tuesday morning. While not at all unusual
for this part of the country in winter, it is now unusually late in the
season to be seeing such bitter wind chills – remember to take the same
common-sense measures to protect yourself from the cold as you would in
mid-winter.

Travel impact: Road closures have
occurred along stretches of I-29, I-94 and I-90 in the Dakotas and may
expand into western Minnesota Monday and Monday night, possibly into
early Tuesday. Secondary roads are or will become impassable due to
blowing and drifting snow. Check our Commuter Forecast map for weather and traffic conditions on the road.

A planet warmed by human-produced greenhouse gases poses significant
risks already to people, cities and nations today and not just in the
far-off future, according to a report the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released Monday.
And those risks could mean "abrupt or drastic changes"
that could lead to unstoppable and irreversible climate shifts like the
runaway melting of Greenland's glacial ice or the rapid drying out of
South America's Amazon rainforest, the Christian Science Monitor
reports.
The dangers of a warming Earth aren't limited to animals like polar bears. They're immediate and very human, the report says.
"The
polar bear is us," says Patricia Romero Lankao of the federally
financed National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.,
referring to the first species to be listed as threatened by global
warming due to melting sea ice.

AFP PHOTO/Tony KARUMBA

Pupils navigate a swamp on reed-rafts to get to school near Kenya's
Lake Baringo, on March 14. A few dozen students at the school have been
cut-off by the swelling lake that has now risen to reclaim plains from
which it had receded more than a decade ago.

She was among the more than 60 scientists in Japan who wrote the
massive and authoritative report on the impacts of global warming, the
second of three installments in the IPCC's latest assessment on the
world's climate.
Another author offer of the report offered this
assessment Monday: "We're all sitting ducks," said Princeton University
professor Michael Oppenheimer.
After several days of late-night
wrangling, more than 100 governments unanimously approved the
scientist-written 49-page summary — which is aimed at world political
leaders. The summary mentions the word "risk" an average of about 5 1/2
times per page.(MORE: Climate Change Threatens Food Supply)
If climate change continues, the panel's larger report predicts these harms:Violence: For
the first time, the panel is emphasizing the nuanced link between
conflict and warming temperatures. Participating scientists say warming
won't cause wars, but it will add a destabilizing factor that will make
existing threats worse.Food: Global food prices
will rise between 3 and 84 percent by 2050 because of warmer
temperatures and changes in rain patterns. Hotspots of hunger may emerge
in cities.Water: About one-third of the world's
population will see groundwater supplies drop by more than 10 percent
by 2080, when compared with 1980 levels. For every degree of warming,
more of the world will have significantly less water available.Health:
Major increases in health problems are likely, with more illnesses and
injury from heat waves and fires and more food and water-borne diseases.
But the report also notes that warming's effects on health is
relatively small compared with other problems, like poverty.Wealth: Many
of the poor will get poorer. Economic growth and poverty reduction will
slow down. If temperatures rise high enough, the world's overall income
may start to go down, by as much as 2 percent, but that's difficult to
forecast.
The report says scientists have already observed many
changes from warming, such as an increase in heat waves in North
America, Europe, Africa and Asia. Severe floods, such as the one that
displaced 90,000 people in Mozambique in 2008, are now more common in
Africa and Australia.(MORE: Scientists: Let's Change How We Talk About Climate Change)
Europe
and North America are getting more intense downpours that can be
damaging. Melting ice in the Arctic is not only affecting the polar
bear, but already changing the culture and livelihoods of indigenous
people in northern Canada.
Past panel reports have been ignored
because global warming's effects seemed too distant in time and
location, says Pennsylvania State University scientist Michael Mann.
This
report finds "It's not far-off in the future and it's not exotic
creatures — it's us and now," says Mann, who didn't work on this latest
report.
The United Nations established the climate change panel in
1988 and its work is done by three groups. One looks at the science
behind global warming. The group meeting in Japan beginning Tuesday
studies its impacts. And a third looks at ways to slow warming.
Its
reports have reiterated what nearly every major scientific organization
has said: The burning of coal, oil and gas is producing an increasing
amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide. Those
gases change Earth's climate, bringing warmer temperatures and more
extreme weather, and the problem is worsening.
The panel won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, months after it issued its last report.
Since
then, the impact group has been reviewing the latest research and
writing 30 chapters on warming's effects and regional impacts. Those
chapters haven't been officially released but were posted on a skeptical
website.(MORE: Feel Like Spring Arrives Earlier Than It Used To?)

Matt Cardy/Getty Images

Volunteers use a pontoon to collect a car that has been cut off by
flood waters at Burrowbridge on the Somerset Levels on Feb. 27 in
Somerset, England. According to the Met Office, England and Wales have
experienced their wettest winter since records began in 1766.

The key message can be summed up in one word that the overall report uses more than 5,000 times: risk.
"Climate
change really is a challenge in managing risks," says the report's
chief author, Chris Field of the Carnegie Institution of Science in
California. "It's very clear that we are not prepared for the kind of
events we're seeing."
Already the effects of global warming are
"widespread and consequential," says one part of the larger report,
noting that science has compiled more evidence and done much more
research since the last report in 2007.
According to the report,
risks from warming-related extreme weather, now at a moderate level, are
likely to get worse with just a bit more warming. While it doesn't say
climate change caused the events, the report cites droughts in northern
Mexico and the south-central United States, and hurricanes such as
2012's Sandy, as illustrations of how vulnerable people are to weather
extremes. It does say the deadly European heat wave in 2003 was made
more likely because of global warming.
Texas Tech University
climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe, who was not part of this report
team, says the important nuance is how climate change interacts with
other human problems: "It's interacting and exacerbating problems we
already have today."
University of Colorado science policy
professor Roger Pielke Jr., a past critic of the panel's impact reports,
said after reading the draft summary, "it's a lot of important work ...
They made vast improvements to the quality of their assessments."(MORE: Earth's Carbon Dioxide Levels Reach New Heights)
Another
critic, University of Alabama Huntsville professor John Christy,
accepts man-made global warming but thinks its risks are overblown when
compared with something like poverty. Climate change is not among the
developing world's main problems, he says.
But other scientists
say Christy is misguided. Earlier this month, the world's largest
scientific organization, the American Association for the Advancement of
Science, published a new fact sheet on global warming.
It said:
"Climate change is already happening. More heat waves, greater sea level
rise and other changes with consequences for human health, natural
ecosystems and agriculture are already occurring in the United States
and worldwide. These problems are very likely to become worse over the
next 10 to 20 years and beyond."
Texas Tech's Hayhoe says
scientists in the past may have created the impression that the main
reason to care about climate change was its impact on the environment.
"We care about it because it's going to affect nearly every aspect of human life on this planet," she says.Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.MORE: The World's Most Historic Places in 2,000 Years

11 / 33

Tower of London Today

Above, we used Google Earth to visualize what
15 of the sites in the study might look like in the future, if its sea
level rise projections come to pass. Thanks to Andrew David Thaler's
DrownYourTown for the template to create these visualizations. (Photo by
Bob Collowân/Wikimedia Commons)

An iceberg breaks off Pine Island Glacier into the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica.

Six big glaciers in West Antarctica are flowing much faster than 40
years ago, a new study finds. The brisk clip may mean this part of
Antarctica, which could raise global sea level by 4 feet (1.2 meters) if
it completely melts, is nearing full-scale collapse.
"This region
is out of balance," said Jeremie Mouginot, lead study author and a
glaciologist at University of California, Irvine. "We're not seeing
anything that could stop the retreat of the grounding line and the
acceleration of these glaciers," he told Live Science. (A grounding line is the location where the glacier leaves bedrock and meets the ocean.)
From
satellite observations such as Landsat images and radar interferometry,
Mouginot and his co-authors tracked the speed of West Antarctica's six
largest glaciers. The biggest of the half-dozen are Pine Island Glacier,
known for cleaving massive icebergs, and its neighbor, Thwaites
Glacier. The other four are Haynes, Smith, Pope and Kohler glaciers. [Video: Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier Is Rifting](MORE: Climate Report Finds Dire Threats to Our Food, Water)
Ice from the six glaciers accounts for almost 10 percent of the
world’s sea-level rise per year. Researchers worry the "collapse" of
West Antarctica's glaciers would hasten sea-level rise. The collapse
refers to an unstoppable, self-sustaining retreat that would drop
millions of tons of ice into the sea.
The amount of ice draining
from the six glaciers increased by 77 percent between 1973 to 2013, the
study found. However, the race to the sea is happening at different
rates. Recently, the fast-flowing Pine Island Glacier stabilized,
slowing down starting in 2009. (The slowdown was only at the ice shelf,
where the glacier meets the sea. Further inland, the glacier is still
accelerating.)
But Pine Island Glacier's sluggishness was matched
by an increase at Thwaites Glacier starting in 2006, the researchers
found. For the first time since measurements began in 1973, Thwaites
starting accelerating. Thwaites quickened its pace by 0.5 miles (0.8
kilometers) per year between 2006 and 2013, the study found.(MORE: See How Fast Wind Energy Exploded in the U.S.)
"To
see Thwaites, this monster glacier, start accelerating in 2006 means we
could see even more change in the near future that could affect sea
level," Mouginot said. The acceleration extends far inland for both Pine
Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier, he said. Pine Island Glacier's
acceleration reached up to 155 miles (230 km) inland from where it meets
the ocean.
Mouginot said warmer ocean waters contributed to the
speed up. The huge ice streams flowing from West Antarctica are held
back by floating ice shelves that act like dams. Several recent studies
have suggested that warmer ocean water near Antarctica is melting and thinning these ice shelves from below. The thinner ice shelves offer less resistance, making it easier for glaciers to bulldoze their way toward the sea.
"This region is considered the potential leak point for Antarctica because
of the low seabed. The only thing holding it in is the ice shelf," said
Robert Thomas, a glaciologist at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, in
Wallops Island, Va., who was not involved in the study.
The study was published March 5 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Antarctic Ice Waves

From our partners

Though they appear to be frozen ocean waves,
these blue ice towers in Antarctica are created when ice compresses,
forcing trapped air bubbles out. When sunlight passes through this thick
frozen ice, blue light waves are visible but the red light is absorbed.
(Photo credit: Tony Travouillon)

If the world continues on its current path – one in which countries
keep pumping ever-increasing amounts of greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere, primarily from burning coal, oil and gas – then a future of
food and water shortages, massive losses of animal species and
ecosystems, and the loss of entire nations to sea level rise almost
certainly awaits in the not-too-distant future.
That was the conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
a group of several hundred scientists from around the world who were
assembled by the United Nations to assess and present their findings on
the state of the world's science on climate change.
"We're all
sitting ducks," said Princeton University professor Michael Oppenheimer,
one of the lead authors of the IPCC's latest report, released Sunday
night.
Titled "Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability,"
the report details climate change impacts closely linked with one
another: as global warming sends temperatures rising, it will lead to
both falling yields for agricultural crops and decreasing water supplies
for millions of people, as sources of freshwater that have been relied
upon for generations dry up.
That means an increased likelihood –
and more devastating impacts – for all kinds of extreme weather events
as well, the panel reports. “Nobody on this planet is going to be
untouched by the impacts of climate change," said IPCC chair Rajendra K.
Pachauri.

1) Climate change is already having major impacts on the world.

In the Summary for Policymakers that accompanies the report, the IPCC said:In
recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and
human systems on all continents and across the oceans. Evidence of
climate-change impacts is strongest and most comprehensive for natural
systems. Some impacts on human systems have also been attributed to
climate change, with a major or minor contribution of climate change
distinguishable from other influences.
In response to Earth's
warming, glaciers around the world have shrunk and permafrost regions
have warmed and thawed – which has "major implications" for water
supplies – while many animal species (both in the ocean and on land)
have shifted their geographic ranges as well as their migration, mating
and seasonal activities.
For life in the oceans, this means they're moving toward the poles
in search of cooler temperatures; animals on land are also moving
northward, in search of the more suitable climates that existed years
and decades ago.
Climate change already has impacted food crop
production, the IPCC added, hitting wheat and maize (corn) crops hardest
so far. Since the group's last report in 2007, rapid food prices have
followed climate extremes in key food-producing regions.
“We’re
not in a world where climate change is a future hypothetical," said
Christopher Field, the IPCC Working Group II co-chair, at Sunday's press
conference. "There’s no question we live in a world that’s already
altered by climate change."

2) The world's most vulnerable people will be hit hardest.

IPCC: Differences
in vulnerability and exposure arise from non-climatic factors and from
multidimensional inequalities often produced by uneven development
processes ... People who are socially, economically, culturally,
politically, institutionally, or otherwise marginalized are especially
vulnerable to climate change.
People who live in the world's
tropical regions, those who depend on rain-fed agriculture and the
oceans for their food and their livelihoods, and people who live on
low-lying island nations are likely to feel the most acute impacts of
climate change.
Sea level rise already poses major risks to small countries like Marshall Islands
and the Maldives, which are likely to be swallowed up by the ocean in
the coming decades. That means their tens of thousands of citizens will
become climate refugees in search of new places to live.
Meanwhile
in countries like India, hundreds of millions of people who live in
rural areas still depend on rainfall, rather than modern farming
practices like irrigation, to grow their crops. "The green revolution
has not touched them at all," said Dr. Pachauri. "They are the ones who
are going to be worst hit. These are the sections of society that are
going to suffer the worst impacts of climate change."
As
warming-related sea level rise occurs, it will worsen coastal flooding
and tropical cyclone-related storm surge – think of storms like 2012's
Hurricane Sandy and 2013's Typhoon Haiyan – while also making events
like the Russian heat wave in 2010 and the Australian heat wave of
2013-2014 both more likely and more severe.

3) Climate change will make violent conflict worse, and vice-versa.

IPCC: Violent
conflict increases vulnerability to climate change. Large-scale violent
conflict harms assets that facilitate adaptation, including
infrastructure, institutions, natural resources, social capital, and
livelihood opportunities.
Though the IPCC authors agree that
the impact of climate change on violent conflict is "contested," and
take care not to say that wars will necessarily be caused by climate
change, they emphasize that the world's poorest regions are particularly
susceptible to the impacts of both.
That's because the impacts of
climate change – whether from heat waves and droughts that affect food
and water supplies, or from storms that erode resilience to climate
extremes by damaging or destroying infrastructure – are likely to be
particularly severe for people in coastal and rural areas.
In
places that don't have the same kinds of institutions found in the
developed world – who have no path to adapt to or mitigate the impacts
of climate change – its effects will be felt most acutely.

IPCC: Adaptation
experience is accumulating across regions in the public and private
sector and within communities. Governments at various levels are
starting to develop adaptation plans and policies and to integrate
climate-change considerations into broader development plans.
The
world's industrial nations have made little progress to date in
controlling their emissions of greenhouse gases, at least in terms of
making meaningful reductions that would keep warming in the decades
ahead to 2°C above the pre-industrial era, the widely-acknowledged
target for avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.
Many nations have begun taking significant action toward adapting to
climate change, however. The IPCC points to many nations in Europe and
Australasia that already have incorporated adaptation planning at "all
levels of government," including coastal and water management, land-use
planning, and planning for sea level rise and water availability.
This
is happening at the municipal and regional level in the United States,
especially in major urban cities like New York and Chicago, while
countries in Central and South America are creating conservation
agreements and water resources management plans for their agricultural
and tourist sectors.

5) The world has the information it needs to take action on climate change today.

At
the Sunday press conference announcing the report, the members of the
IPCC couldn't have been more clear: "Climate is changing, there is no
doubt anymore," said Michel Jarraud, the secretary-general of the World
Meteorological Organization, which co-sponsors the IPCC.
“Now
we’re at the point where there is so much information, we can no longer
plead ignorance," he added. "We know we have the information to make
decisions."
Projections for the impacts climate change will have
on food security, water supplies and human health and security are
"profound" and "grave," said Pachauri, adding that we have "much greater
certainty and far greater detail today" on these impacts than in the
group's last report in 2007.
"There is a reason for the world not
[to] neglect the findings of this report," he added. "We have reasons to
believe that if the world doesn't do anything about mitigating the
emissions of greenhouse gases, and the extent of climate change
continues to increase, then the very social stability of human systems
could be at stake."Read the full IPCC report here, or watch the webcast of the report's presentation here.

MORE: Alaskan Glaciers Reveal Global Warming's Impact

6 / 47

Bear Glacier (2005)

In the approximately 80 years between these
photos, Bear Glacier's piedmont lobe has retreated completely out of the
field of view. Large icebergs, floating in the ice-marginal lake that
fills the basin formerly occupied by Bear Glacier's piedmont lobe,
represent the only glacier ice that is visible. (USGS/Bruce Molnia)

A cold frontal boundary inched across the West Coast on Monday, while a
separate cold front extended from the central Rockies to the upper
Midwest.

Heavy precipitation began to move across northern and central California
on Monday as a cold front pushed across the West Coast. Winter storm
warnings and winter weather advisories were issued across the Klamath
Mountains and the Sierra Nevadas as heavy snow began to move across the
higher elevations. This system also ushered moderate rain across western
Oregon. Washington stayed mostly clear of precipitation.

A separate cold front stretched from Colorado to Minnesota on Monday. A
strong low pressure system along the frontal boundary pushed heavy snow
across the northern Plains, as blizzard warnings were issued across the
Dakotas and western Minnesota. Walsh, N.D., reported a midday total of
7.0 inches of snow, while Grand Forks, N.D., reported a midday total of
3.5 inches of snow. Strong winds accompanied this system, as Pennington,
S.D., recorded wind speeds of 64 mph. A mixture of rain and snow also
moved across the upper Midwest. To the south, a line of showers and
thunderstorms developed over the southern Plains and the Mississippi
Valley.

Meanwhile, an area of low pressure moved north northeastward along the
northeastern coast on Monday. This system brought a mixture of rain and
snow to eastern New England, as Manchester, N.H., reported a midday
total of 1.38 inches of rain. The remainder of the Eastern Seaboard
stayed clear of wet weather. .

1890
- Saint Louis, MO, received 20 inches of snow in 24 hours. It was the
worst snowstorm of record for the St Louis. (David Ludlum)

1954
- The temperature at Rio Grande City, TX, hit 108 degrees, which for
thirty years was a U.S. record for the month of March. (The Weather
Channel)

1962
- A tornado struck the town of Milton, FL, killing 17 persons and
injuring 100 others. It was the worst tornado disaster in Florida
history. (David Ludlum)

1973
- A devastating tornado took a nearly continuous 75 mile path through
north central Georgia causing more than 113 million dollars damage, the
highest total of record for a natural disaster in the state. (The
Weather Channel)

1987
- March went out like a lion in the northeastern U.S. A slow moving
storm produced heavy snow in the Lower Great Lakes Region, and heavy
rain in New England. Heavy rain and melting snow caused catastrophic
flooding along rivers and streams in Maine and New Hampshire. Strong
southerly winds ahead of the storm gusted to 62 mph at New York City,
and reached 87 mph at Milton MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm
Data)

1988
- March went out like a lion in eastern Colorado. A winter-like storm
produced 42 inches of snow at Lake Isabel, including 20 inches in six
hours. Fort Collins reported 15 inches of snow in 24 hours. Winds gusted
to 80 mph at Centerville UT. Albuquerque NM received 14 inches of snow.
(The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989
- Afternoon thunderstorms produced severe weather from North Carolina
to Pennsylvania. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 76 mph at Cape Henry VA.
While squalls blanketed northwest Pennsylvania with up to 9 inches of
snow, thunderstorms in eastern Pennsylvania produced golf ball size hail
at Avondale. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990
- The month of March went out just as it came in, like a lamb.
Marquette MI, which started the month with a record high of 52 degrees,
equalled their record for the date with a reading of 62 degrees. (The
National Weather Summary)

2010
- Jacksonville, Florida's, record streak of days with high temperatures
below 80 degrees comes to an end at 105 days. It was also
Jacksonville's first 80 degree reading of the year. The previous latest
first 80 degree day was on March 14, 1978.

March 31,2014; 8:08PM,EDT

As
tens of millions of people bid good riddance to March, spring will be
busting out all over during the first week of April in the South,
Northeast and part of the Midwest.
Some people have described this March as being a penguin, lion, polar bear and even a stubborn mule.
"Who cares what March came in like or is going out like," AccuWeather
Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams said. "The simple fact that it is
departing is wonderful in itself."
The surging warmth will help lawns green up, buds to push out and
blossoms to burst forth. People will be able to shed winter coats and
break out short sleeves. The weather will be much more favorable for
outdoor sporting activities ranging from jogging and bicycling to
baseball and soccer.
As a storm stalls over the Central states with rounds of severe
weather much of this week, a circulation around the storm will push
warmer air into most places east of the Mississippi River.RELATED:MLB WeatherThe Psychology of SpringAccuWeather Temperature Forecast Maps
The pattern will send temperatures to near 80 degrees Fahrenheit in
Birmingham, Ala., Atlanta, Raleigh, N.C., and Richmond, Va., during the
middle and latter parts of the week. Temperatures will climb well into
the 80s F in Columbia, S.C., and Savannah, Ga.
Highs will be in the 70s F most days around Nashville, Tenn., and Louisville, Ky.
Farther north, most days will feature highs in the 60s to near 70 F
around Washington, D.C., to Cincinnati. Highs will be in the 60s F for
at least a couple of days from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia and New York
City.
Multiple days with highs in the 50s F are forecast from Chicago to
Detroit and Boston. In this swath, a push of cooler air will sweep
eastward and is likely to keep the warmup at bay, but temperatures will
still be significantly and consistently higher than they have been
during much of March.
Temperatures averaged 4 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit below normal over a
large part of the Midwest and Northeast during March. Many areas in the
South averaged 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit below normal this past month.
Some showers and thunderstorms are projected to push eastward from
mid- to late-week from the Ohio Valley to part of the Northeast.
At the end of the week, there may be a round of strong to locally
severe thunderstorms from the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast as the
slow-moving storm from the Central states picks up forward speed.
Chilly weather is forecast to return later in the weekend into next
week from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast and interior South.
"If there is a zone that stays chilly more often than not through
much of April, it will be the area from the northern Plains to the Upper
Midwest and interior Northeast," AccuWeather Long Range Expert Paul
Pastelok said. "The Southwest will have more days with above-average
temperatures than below-average temperatures during April, and warmth
will build quickly over the Southwest."

Very
nice day here in Ontario with mild temps and loads of sunshine. I just
wish these mild temperatures would STAY! The 45 day forecast where I
live isn't calling for anything warmer than 11C (52F) at ALL for the
entire month of April when the average temp for the month is around 12C
(53-54F), and it almost always gets to the 20'S (70'S) at least ONCE in
April. Even in the first half of May, they aren't even calling for 60's
(Temps above 15C). Haven't seen anything like this!

Now I know
the 45 day forecasts don't mean much but they do show signals that this
significant below seasonal temperature pattern isn't coming to an end
any time soon. I am glad WINTER'S OVER, I just want this below seasonal
temperature pattern to end soon because it's been stuck in much of
Eastern North America since late October!

March 31,2014; 8:07PM,EDT

People
of the Plains will need to keep an eye on the weather this week for a
multiple-day severe thunderstorm outbreak that will be complete with
tornadoes.
A couple of slow-moving storm systems will be responsible for
multiple rounds of severe weather over the Central states through
Friday.
During Tuesday and Wednesday, thunderstorms can become briefly severe
farther south from Texas to Kansas and Missouri. The storms on
Wednesday could be known for large hail, ahead of a push of warm, humid
air.
"We are looking at Thursday to be the first decent setup for
tornadoes this spring," stated AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions Storm
Warning Meteorologist Rebecca Elliott.
Thursday will likely be the most active day of the week, in terms of
severe weather, across the southern Plains as a potent storm from the
West clashes with warm, humid air streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico.
Warm, humid conditions will be established by Thursday centered on Arkansas, but including most of the neighboring states.
In addition to the tornado threat, there exists the potential for
numerous thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail
and blinding downpours on Thursday.RELATED:AccuWeather.com Severe Weather CenterThe Difference Between Tornado Watches and WarningsMike Smith Blog: 40th Anniversary of the 1974 Super Outbreak
Cities likely in the path of Thursday's severe weather outbreak
include Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Okla.; Fayetteville, Fort Smith and
Little Rock, Ark.; and Dallas, Waco and Tyler, Texas; Joplin,
Springfield and Cape Girardeau, Mo.; and Shreveport, La.
The violent thunderstorms may press to the lower Mississippi and Ohio valleys Thursday night and on Friday.
Residents throughout the South Central states should continue to
check back with AccuWeather.com as details on the severe weather threat
unfold, especially concerning the storms during the second half of the
week.
The running total of tornadoes so far this year is lagging behind average.
The behavior of this season's severe weather season is consistent with the AccuWeather.com Long Range Forecast Team's synopsis that this year's severe weather and tornado threat will spike later than usual.Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski contributed content to this story.

March 31,2014; 8:06PM,EDT

March
is coming to an end with a disruptive blizzard that is shutting down
travel across the northern Plains into Monday night and into early
Tuesday morning.
As of late Monday night, snow totaling more than nine inches was
reported in Grand Forks, N.D. and Hallock, Minn., according to NWS
observers.
The blizzard will reach from northeastern South Dakota, much of North
Dakota and northwestern Minnesota through Monday night. People in this
area should expect travel delays and disruptions to daily activities.
Rapid City, Pierre and Aberdeen, S.D., Fargo, Jamestown and Bismarck, N.D., and Ortonville, Minn., lie within this zone.Minneapolis should narrowly escape the worst of the blizzard, the city will still be subject to some snow and slick travel Monday night.
This blizzard will be short-lived--in terms of accompanying strong
winds, not heavy snow--since the storm will weaken as it heads into
central Ontario for the first day of April.
Even though true blizzard conditions will not be met across
northeastern Minnesota and central Ontario, heavy snow and reduced
visibility are still expected.
Some rain and ice will precede the snow and blizzard in some
communities. As temperatures plunge with the developing storm, blizzard
conditions will soon follow.RELATED:AccuWeather.com Winter Weather CenterInteractive North Central Regional RadarResearchers Find Five Previously Undetected Greenhouse Gases
Howling winds will make measuring the snow very difficult. Winds
during the height of the storm will gust to around 45 mph, leading to
severe blowing and drifting snow and blinding conditions.
The strong winds around the storm will cause blowing dust in parts of the central Plains.
Travel will be dangerous for a time. Officials may be forced to close
lengthy stretches of highways and interstates. Interstates 29, 90 and
94 could be among such roads.
As of noon EDT Monday, the North Dakota Department of Transportation
issued a no travel advisory for areas of northeastern, southwestern
and north central North Dakota due to reduced visibility from snow and
blowing snow.
Motorists attempting to travel during the blizzard run the risk of
becoming stranded for a time. Residents should prepare for school and
other activities to be canceled.
In the wake of the blizzard, the northern Plains will need to be further monitored for more snow events during April.
The chance for a bit of snow will return Wednesday. If a storm tracks
far enough to the north, steadier snow may follow for later in the
week.

March 31,2014; 8:05PM,EDT

There
are indications that an El Niño is on the way for the middle and latter
parts of 2014. The phenomenon may impact the weather in portions of the
United States, starting this summer.
Fluctuations in the sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific
Ocean have been observed and recorded for approximately the past 60
years. These fluctuations are known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation
or ENSO. When the waters are cooler than average for a several-month
period, the event is called La Niña. Opposingly, when the waters are
warmer than average over several months, the event is called El Niño.
According to AccuWeather Long Range Forecaster Mark Paquette, "We are
confident that an El Niño is in the early stages of developing and may
reach moderate strength moving forward into mid- to late summer of
2014."
While El Niño will not have an impact on this spring and summer's
severe weather, it may come on early enough and strong enough to have
impact on the upcoming hurricane season in the Atlantic and Eastern
Pacific.
Disruptive winds, known as wind shear, often develop off the Atlantic
coast of the United States and sweep over a large part of the basin
during El Niño.
"It is possible that a budding El Niño and developing wind shear may
truncate the number of hurricanes originating from near the west coast
of Africa during the middle and latter part of the season," Paquette
said.RELATED:El Niño, La Niña Influence on Hurricane SeasonsLong Range Forecasting Takes More Than a Crystal BallSpring 2014 Severe Weather Outlook
El Niño is generally not a major player in determining the number and
strength of storms that originate over the Gulf of Mexico and much of
the Caribbean.
While the number of storms tends to be lower in the Atlantic during
an El Niño, it is not uncommon for the Eastern Pacific to have a very
active hurricane season.
An El Niño may also enhance the summer monsoon over the Four Corners
region of the Southwest as tropical moisture funnels in from the Eastern
Pacific. Whether monsoon moisture is enhanced over drought-stricken
California is less certain at this time, Paquette said.
However, there is some hope for rain later in the year that could impact the California drought, which has been weighing heavily on ranchers.
The greatest effects on the weather pattern in the Lower 48 states, including California, occur during the cold season.
"As far as impact on next winter, it is too early in the game to make
a call one way or another, but some El Niño patterns in the past
[1997-98] have produced significant storms in California," Paquette
said.
El Niño winters are noted for wet and stormy conditions in the South
and less-frequent, less-severe cold episodes in the Northern states.
The pattern has been known to bring outbreaks of severe weather in the South during the winter.
There is a tendency toward dry conditions in the Northwest and North Central states during an El Niño winter.
The strength of an El Niño can also have significant outcome of the weather pattern.
A strong El Niño can shift the winter storm track off the coast of
the Northeast. A weak to moderate El Niño can allow the storm track to
be near the coast.
Long-range weather forecasts are challenging, as many variables have
to come together. Forecasts for the long range are typically described
in overall departures from normal over a seasonal period rather than in
daily extremes: wetter or drier than average and colder or warmer than
average for a several-week to a several-month period.
AccuWeather will be releasing its summer 2014 outlook in late April
along with a preliminary peek at the upcoming hurricane season.