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MATHEMATICS, SIMULATION AND MODELLING

The DecisionTools Suite

18 May 2007

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You make difficult decisions every day–decisions based on a thorough analysis of the alternatives and the available data. But what if the alternatives are uncertain and ill-defined? Or the data is sketchy or doesn’t exist? Every day analysts, engineers, and managers around the world rely on the DecisionTools Suite to help them solve problems, uncover opportunities, and make better decisions.

DecisionTools That Work Together in ExcelThe DecisionTools Suite is an integrated set of programmes designed to work together in Microsoft Excel to provide combined analyses for optimum decision analysis in one package! The DecisionTools Suite brings together up to seven products: @RISK, PrecisionTree, TopRank, RISKOptimizer, BestFit, RISKview, and @RISKAccelerator. Installation is fast and easy, using a single CD-ROM. The programmes themselves have been designed to work together in an integrated environment, running from a common toolbar in Microsoft Excel. All have Microsoft Office-style interfaces, menus, and toolbars. This means that you don’t have to spend a lot of time learning how to use the DecisionTools Suite.

Greater Than the Sum of its PartsEach component of the DecisionTools Suite can perform a powerful analysis. When you combine these products, you can perform analyses with more complete results than any single programme can provide. Incorporate decision analysis in your spreadsheet model by creating a decision tree with PrecisionTree. Then perform a “What-if” analysis with TopRank to identify critical variables in the model. Bring in @RISK to analyse the risk inherent in the chance events and uncertain payoffs of your PrecisionTree model. Use BestFit and RISKview to quantify risks in your @RISK, PrecisionTree, and TopRank models. Perform a risk analysis of uncertain factors with @RISK, then use RISKOptimizer to help allocate variables you can control.

The DecisionTools Suite includes the following tools:

@RISK – The popular risk analysis add-in to Excel that helps you identify hidden opportunities and avoid pitfalls. Add the power of Monte Carlo simulation to any Excel spreadsheet. Replace uncertain values in your spreadsheet with @RISK distribution functions and simulate. Use historical data to select your @RISK functions. The result is a distribution of possible outcomes and the probabilities of those outcomes occurring. Use presentation-quality graphs and charts to explain your findings to others.

PrecisionTree – The decision analysis add-in for Excel that lets you illustrate to others what you should do and why. Create decision trees and influence diagrams in your spreadsheets. Use decision trees to visually model a sequence of decision-making events. Results include a full statistical report, sensitivity charts and risk profile graphs.

TopRank – The “what-if” add-in to Excel that narrows your analytical focus in seconds.Determine the most critical factors in your spreadsheets automatically. TopRank scans your entire spreadsheet and identifies which cells affect your bottom line the most, and then ranks them in easy-to-understand Tornado charts and statistical reports.

RISKOptimizer – Solve tough combinatorial problems like never before with this optimisation add-in to Excel. Use genetic algorithms to find the best possible combination of controllable factors to lead to a desired result. Then run a Monte Carlo simulation on the scenario to see the effects of uncontrollable variables. RISKOptimizer combines these analyses automatically. Available in DecisionTools Suite Industrial.