Now for the final results on the pollsters' estimates

Page Tools

For pollsters there is only one poll that counts, and that is
the last poll before an election.

It's the one time when their accuracy is measured against the
real result.

And the winner?

The Galaxy poll, commissioned by News Ltd metropolitan
newspapers, came closest. It predicted a 52 to 48 per cent
Coalition win after preferences. With postal and pre-poll votes
still being counted, and 79.22 per cent of the total vote counted,
the actual result after preferences was 52.5 to the Government,
47.5 to the ALP.

Of the three major organisations that regularly do opinion
polling outside of election campaigns, the Herald's
ACNielsen poll came the closest, correctly showing a swing to the
Government. This was the second consecutive federal election in
which it had got closer to the final result than its direct
competitors. Its final poll of 54 to 46 per cent overestimated the
size of the swing. However, the actual election result was within
the final poll's 2.2 per cent margin of error.

In fact, ACNielsen's final poll showed a 53.5 to 47.5 per cent
result, which would have brought it closer to the actual result -
but unlike other polls, it does not report results in 0.5
increments. (With the margin of error of even the best polls being
about 2 per cent, such reporting gives a false impression of
accuracy.)

Newspoll got the final result wrong, despite more than doubling
its sample size. Its final poll put the Government and the
Opposition level on 50 per cent. This means that the actual result
fell outside the poll's margin of error.

The third regular opinion poll, Roy Morgan Research, came in for
more embarrassment, after famously predicting a Labor landslide at
the 2001 poll. Its final telephone poll showed Labor at 51 per cent
after preferences. Again, the result fell outside the margin of
error.

Its last face-to-face poll, which pollster Gary Morgan insists
is the most accurate method of polling, showed Labor ahead 51.5 to
48.5 per cent. (It was taken one week before the poll, unlike the
other polls which were taken in the last few days of the
campaign.)

In fact, most of the major polls were accurate in measuring the
primary support of the major parties.

Newspoll got close to predicting the correct primary Coalition
vote, tipping 45 per cent versus the actual result of 46.06. It
also went close to the primary Labor vote - 39 per cent versus the
actual 38.3. It got the Green vote almost dead right, predicting 7
per cent against the real 6.98. It went wrong in measuring the flow
of preferences.

Newspoll's Sol Lebovic said his polling had done "very well" in
capturing the primary vote.

"Almost all results came within 1 per cent of the final result,
so to come within the sampling error was terrific," Mr Lebovic
said.

Morgan was even closer on the major parties' primary vote,
although it overestimated Green support (9.5 per cent versus 6.98).
Again, its error seemed to be in estimating voters'
preferences.

ACNielsen, although it was closer than the others on the final
two-party result, overestimated the Coalition vote by almost 3 per
cent and underestimated the Labor vote by 1.3 per cent. It got the
Greens vote right.

ACNielsen's John Stirton said the election was a referendum on
the economy. "The view was that it was not the time for a change,
that things were about right and that [Mark] Latham looked a bit
risky," he said.

The Channel Nine Bulletin internet poll suffered the most
embarrassment. It predicted a Labor landslide (55 to 45 per cent
after preferences).

In individual seats, ACNielsen had mixed results. It
underestimated the support for the Liberals' Malcolm Turnbull in
Wentworth and overestimated the Liberals' support in Parramatta.
Both polls were taken some time before the election, so a shift in
voter support may explain this.

Although the published opinion polls had variable results, they
were more accurate than the reported versions of the major parties'
private polling, which at various stages had Mr Latham "within
striking distance of winning office" and the so-called doctors'
wives voting out North Shore Liberal members.

Whatever its faults, scientifically based sampling is better
than spin.