Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.

Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's RemnantsInterestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.

Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Haha that may be part of it but the main part is they realize the students can sometimes see things through a new eye. We can see things they can't. Heck even in my classes we have caught things that the profs haven't. In times like this and studying things such as meteorology the line between student and teacher becomes very blurred.

Look at the cone up to three days out and see where the cane goes in three days... it's almost always within the cone. I admit they're off when it's more than that though. They really shouldn't have a five day cone. It's kind of pointless.

I agree , all a 5 day cone does is cause unnecessary anxiety and can cause unnecessary complacency when an area has been under too many wrong 5 day cones. They're trying to give more lead time, but the accuracy is not there for a tight 5 day cone.

Quoting MississippiWx:The GFS continues to advertise 2 possible tropical cyclones coming off Africa starting next week. Another thing I noticed is that the GFS shows a persistent 1018-1019mb A/B high. I'd have to do a little more research, but I believe that is a below average MSLP for August for the A/B High.

Both systems cross the Lesser Antilles, NE Caribbean islands (PR, DR or Virgin Islands), over the Bahamas and make a hard turn to the right, and never hit the Conus. Interesting to see both doing the exact same thing. O.o

Quoting BahaHurican:But like a good teacher, they don't pretend to know all the time'; they admit when they don't; and in the case of low confidence forecasts like TS Emily, they often turn out pretty right. What's the difference between where they said Em would cross and where she actually crossed? What's the difference between where she is [even though an mere low] now and where she was forecast to be 5 days ago?

It's good not be be overly accepting and fawni ng in our attitude towards NHC; however, some bloggers act as if the NHC is always wrong about everything and never give credit where it is due. To me, a balanced approach is better.

Quoting robj144:Ok, I'm going to ask this question when it's quiet because it would probably anger almost everyone here. It's an honest question though. Why does what seems like 90% of the bloggers here disagree with the NHC forecast so frequently? I've been paying attention closely the last few years, and the NHC never that far off... the storm is almost always within the cone if you track it. I mean the NHC has Ph. D.'s who have been tracking storms for probably an average of twenty years or more. They're the authority. Don't mean to offend anyone.

Quite simply, it is because it is not their opinion. This is a blog of opinions you know. Your absolutely right though, the NHC is greatly discredited everyday on this blog. Humans make mistakes now and then but, NHC is most always dead on.

Haha that may be part of it but the main part is they realize the students can sometimes see things through a new eye. We can see things they can't. Heck even in my classes we have caught things that the profs haven't. In times like this and studying things such as meteorology the line between student and teacher becomes very blurred.

I've never heard a good teacher say anything like that. Someone who teaches is supposed to remember this golden rule. You never stop learning. That learning comes from experiences including being wrong at one point or another. Also they know working with the students can sometimes lead to great things. Why do you think college professors have students researching for them in the labs?

I'm a teacher and am never wrong. I also refuse to work with the student on anything. If anything, I'll give them more homework if they doubt me. :)

I've never heard a good teacher say anything like that. Someone who teaches is supposed to remember this golden rule. You never stop learning. That learning comes from experiences including being wrong at one point or another. Also they know working with the students can sometimes lead to great things. Why do you think college professors have students researching for them in the labs?

Look at the spin over Andros Island right now... making a beeline W at a decent speed. Wondering if that is mid-level or low-level at this point. If it is mid-level then it is definitely closing the gap on the earlier low-level right off the central Cuban coast

The GFS continues to advertise 2 possible tropical cyclones coming off Africa starting next week. Another thing I noticed is that the GFS shows a persistent 1018-1019mb A/B high. I'd have to do a little more research, but I believe that is a below average MSLP for August for the A/B High.

But like a good teacher, they don't pretend to know all the time'; they admit when they don't; and in the case of low confidence forecasts like TS Emily, they often turn out pretty right. What's the difference between where they said Em would cross and where she actually crossed? What's the difference between where she is [even though an mere low] now and where she was forecast to be 5 days ago?

It's good not be be overly accepting and fawni ng in our attitude towards NHC; however, some bloggers act as if the NHC is always wrong about everything and never give credit where it is due. To me, a balanced approach is better.

Maybe not wrong, per se, but at times they don't get it exactly right. There are people who expect perfection from the experts, and jump all over them when that doesn't happen. Predicting weather of any kind is a challenge. But if it were easy it wouldn't be fun!

Yes, I know they don't get everything correct all the time. Honestly though, do you think most people on this blog have a better idea where the storm is going than people who have Ph. D.'s who have been studying storms for 30 years? I know it's just a blog and it's not designed to be a prediction center, but it kind of irks me when people discredit experts so readily.

Maybe not wrong, per se, but at times they don't get it exactly right. There are people who expect perfection from the experts, and jump all over them when that doesn't happen. Predicting weather of any kind is a challenge. But if it were easy it wouldn't be fun!

Quoting FrankZapper:Within the cone? Thats a joke. There cones are hundreds to sometimes thousands of miles( GOM sized) wide. AND they move the cones like headlights on a car. The real clueless nature of the NHC is revealed when a system stalls out or becomes erratic.That's when their cone system breaks down and they even sometimes say "we have LOW confidence in this track". They're the NHC. They're supposed to know.

Look at the cone up to three days out and see where the cane goes in three days... it's almost always within the cone. I admit they're off when it's more than that though. They really shouldn't have a five day cone. It's kind of pointless.

Quoting robj144:Ok, I'm going to ask this question when it's quiet because it would probably anger almost everyone here. It's an honest question though. Why does what seems like 90% of the bloggers here disagree with the NHC forecast so frequently? I've been paying attention closely the last few years, and the NHC never that far off... the storm is almost always within the cone if you track it. I mean the NHC has Ph. D.'s who have been tracking storms for probably an average of twenty years or more. They're the authority. Don't mean to offend anyone.

Within the cone? Thats a joke. There cones are hundreds to sometimes thousands of miles( GOM sized) wide. AND they move the cones like headlights on a car. The real clueless nature of the NHC is revealed when a system stalls out or becomes erratic.That's when their cone system breaks down and they even sometimes say "we have LOW confidence in this track". They're the NHC. They're supposed to know.

I think it's ok to question the NHC, It's like a student questioning a teacher to learn more. I would never shoot them down if they got anything wrong. Weather is not an exact science, it's always changing.