CoPS/IMPACT Working Paper Number G-274

Abstract

We analyze the Brazilian commitments to COP21 under different scenarios, with a
general equilibrium model of Brazil developed for land use change and GHG emissions
analysis. The model is dynamic, inter-regional and bottom-up, and here distinguishes 16
regions and 6 biomes. We simulate different scenarios of future deforestation, including
the halt of illegal deforestation, the restoration of 12Mha of forests, and replacing
deforestation in the Amazon biome by deforestation in the Cerrado biome. Our analysis
shows that the restoration of 12 Mha of forests would be enough to meet Brazil's 2025
commitments with no other extra GHG savings efforts, but would not meet 2030 commitments.
Exchanging deforestation in the Amazon biome for deforestation in the Cerrado biome would
seriously compromise the accomplishment of the targets. We note that emissions in the
general economy are increasing in Brazil, suggesting that other efforts must be made to
meet the COP21 targets.