Monday, November 05, 2007

A very small speculation

This is speculation - pure and simple.

This morning I pulled the trigger and made a token investment in some put warrants (similar to put options) on the Hang Seng index. The amount involved is trivial, so win or lose it will have no noticeable effect on the overall value of my investments. At the end of the day the Hang Seng index had fallen by a touch over 5% and the warrants were up about 20%.

I accept that I am attempting to time the market which I would normally shy away from (not that it is possible to make any investment without making assumptions about the future) and I do not want to make a habit of speculating in this manner.

In one sense I am slightly irritated with myself for giving in to the temptation. In another sense, I have to remember that a warrant (option) is a wasting asset with a finite life (it expires in April). This means that I have to monitor the markets almost continually and attempt to time the exit.