Warriors clinch a playoff spot: The Curry Factor, the likely Clipper match-up, and more end-season notes

* You had to figure that Eric Musselman would get involved in the Cal coaching search in some fashion, and now CBS Sports is reporting that Musselman has interviewed for the job twice in recent days. This would be a very interesting hire because we all know Musselman can flat out coach, and we also know he has some quirky edges. He’d work the hell out of this job, that I know.

It’s also fascinating (maybe just for me) because Musselman was replaced as Warriors coach in 2004 by Mike Montgomery, and now Musselman seems like a leading choice to replace Montgomery at Cal. Somehow, I hope Dunleavy and Murphy are part of the equation this time, too! Of course, if Cal is working backwards through former Warriors coaches, that means Brian Winters should get prepared for a call in 2017.

-Stephen Curry didn’t clinch the Warriors a playoff spot all by himself, but last night it sure sort of looked like that. They needed a big bounce back from the horrible loss to Denver, and Curry made it happen.

If there’s a reason the Warriors–through the ups and downs and controversies and diminished coaching staff–remain a dangerous wild-card in the West playoffs, it’s mostly due to a singular thing: The guy in the “30” jersey, who, as Mark Jackson likes to say (quite accurately), is a bad, bad man.

But that’s hardly breaking news, even after Curry registered his fourth triple-double of the season, the first time any Warriors player has had that many TD’s since Wilt Chamberlain. That’s a wow. (Not even Andris Biedrins or Chris Porter did it. Amazing, I know.)

So…

* This is the Warriors’ second consecutive playoff berth, which is quite the accomplishment after the franchise’s abominal run in the mid-’90s into the 2000s.

The last time they clinched back-to-back runs was in 1991-92–the season they traded Mitch Richmond.

* It’s now very likely that the Warriors will be the 6th seed in the West and draw the 3 seed LA Clippers, in what will certainly be a ferocious and unfriendly first-round series.

That match-up loomed as the likeliest scenario a week ago and now it looks like an 85-90% certainty–still a chance things change in the final few days of the regular season, but not a large chance.
For the Warriors to jump up to the 5 seed, current 5 Portland would have to lose both of its remaining games and the Warriors would have to win all three it has left.
–And hey, the Warriors’ last game is Wednesday in Denver, which did a number on the GSWs two days ago at Oracle. So let’s not write down any sure victories, OK?

That of course includes tomorrow when the Warriors play in Portland, which has won 7 of its last 8 now that LaMarcus Aldridge is back in the lineup (after losing its last three without him).

If the Warriors win tomorrow, that puts the 5 seed back in play, but I still think the odds would be against them.

Portland would only need to beat the Clippers in the season finale–a game that would be practically meaningless for the LACs, who won’t have the 2 seed to play for unless Oklahoma City unexpectedly loses the rest of its games.

For the Warriors to drop below 6, they’d have to lose all three remaining games and at least one of the three trailing teams (Dallas, Memphis and Phoenix) would have to win all of its remaining games.
Again, I’m saying that scenario is highly unlikely.

–It’s actually more likely that Portland will pass 4 Houston (reeling with injuries and currently only a half-game ahead of Portland) than stumble and get caught by the Warriors. Note: Portland lost the season series to Houston so must finish ahead of the Rockets outright to get the 4 seed.

–But anything that happens with the 4/5 order doesn’t affect the Warriors’ first-round match-up, presuming they’re the 6 seed.

Unless things get really wacky from now until Wednesday, it’ll be Warriors vs. the Clippers, starting the weekend at Staples Center, and this is going to be good.

* The Warriors and Clippers split the season series 2-2 with both teams winning at home and losing on the road.

The Clippers are clearly a very, very, very good team–any team led by Chris Paul and with Blake Griffin climbing to new levels and coached by Doc Rivers… is going to be a tough out at any time.

But this not a terrible match up for the Warriors, who have absolutely played much more sharply in the more emotional games (and often flattened out at home vs. bad teams) and we know the Clippers will have the Warriors emotionally invested in every way.

Plus the match-ups sort of work out for the Warriors:

-Andrew Bogut has defended Griffin well–he forces Griffin to shoot from the outside and bangs into him whenever Griffin tries to leverage himself inside.

-Curry likes playing Paul–Curry doesn’t always win that match-up (who does?), but it’s notable that he truly embraces the competition and when Curry does that–as stated earlier–he can win games by himself,

-The Clippers have no true match-up for Klay Thompson, and that can screw some things up for them.

-Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala (and even Draymond Green) can take long turns on Paul defensively, to give Curry a breather by assigning him to a lesser Clippers wing player.

The Clippers can’t really do the cross-match thing to give Paul a breather on D vs. Curry, or at least they haven’t tried to do it much in the past .

* Trying to get a measure on the Warriors’ playoff chances based on how they wrap up this season? Might not be the most accurate way.

It’s not like the Warriors powered into the playoffs last year, and they did just fine in the first round against Denver, if you remember.

Last season, the Warriors went 3-3 in their final six regular-season games last year–and went 1-3 from April 7 to April 12 including a bad home loss to Utah–before winning their last two.

In the same period this season, GSWs are 2-1 with three games to play.

It really doesn’t matter how you get there; what matters is your seed, your match-up, and your ability to do the things that win playoff series.

Which isn’t decided until a team is actually in a playoff series. The Warriors have now done it in two straight years, that’s not a bad thing to recognize.

Observations: Barnett said he advised Bogut to take more shots. Bogut took an uncontested hook shot very early,made it,and never took another I saw. Something is fractured in the Bogut/Jackson dynamics. He didn’t give it his all..and he doesn’t seem to care.
The Warriors can take the Clippers. After that is gravy for this year. They can take the best teams in the NBA that aren’t San Antonio or Kevin Durant. Avoid them,and we are set.

Stan

And that hook,was beautiful. A sky hook. NOBODY came close to blocking it. And then the Big Eucalyptus put it away for the day.

Joel Frazee

Like they way you left DLee out of your match up breakdown….hmmmmm? An oversite I’m sure.

Mike DunleaveMeHangin

When TK did his schedule look-ahead a while ago, I wrote the Dubs are good enough to have a very real shot at any of the West elite (probably biggest underdog if matched vs SAS) and not much has changed … The real shame about those home letdowns vs beatable teams (Min, Den x2, Cha, NYK, Was) is they’re the difference between jockeying with the Clippers for the 3rd seed and fending off others for the 6th seed.

As good as the Clips are, it’s not like anybody in that Warrior locker room is shaking in their boots and it’s not just playing them level this season. Remember last year when the Clippers stormed out of the gate to a 32-10 start … and 3 of the 10 losses were at the hands of Warriors? Some things have changed (most notably, the guy at the helm for LAC) but all the other key characters are right there, familiarity breeding contempt … and it should make for one hell of a first round series … Whoo, I’m getting fired up just thinking about it!!

Mike DunleaveMeHangin

He also had a dunk off a Curry feed right before the half … but point still stands. This might be just naivete on my part … but I’d like to believe there’s at least an element here of a grizzled vet pacing himself to be at his best for the playoffs. He certainly doesn’t look as spry (duh!) as early in the season – someone commented the other day how he barely even jumped for a number of the offensive boards Mozgov / Faried got … This side of a Curry ankle roll, a gimpy Bogut would be the biggest blow to the Warrior playoff chances.

flaninerfan

Name the two teams that rank in the top ten in both offense and defense? That would be SAN and GSW. So why aren’t we a higher seed?

RR

Good point. The vibe between Jackson and Bogut is wierd. I would love to see Bogut take atleast 10 shots near the basket and I believe he has improved to a point where he can make 5/10. I mean if Draymond Green is allowed to shoot freely it bizzare Bogut is limited.

RR

If the Dubs stand any shot in the playoffs Bogut and Andre have to attempt 20 shots between them. They will be close to the basket or open with teams doubling Thompson and Curry.

Commish

I hope it doesn’t come down to coaching because one and done if it does.

NCDub

com
Might not be so–but JAX must raise his game a little including floor management and fire regarding both players and refs. This latter will not happen…so…? Use of the bench as well as the bench performing will be where it’s won or lost against any matchup the Dubs end up facing. PLus a Plan B when Steph and Klay are doubled.

Bigmouth

We play in the West?

Stan

Ok,you guys tell me. If Curry,Bogut and Lee went 3 on 3 with TMC of 1992? Who would win?
Also,Tim Kawakami emotes over Lee’s pay…but How much would the Warriors have to pay TMC in 2014 Dollars?. One went on to be in the HOF!

Twinkie defense

Abominal? What, are you making up you own words now? : )

Twinkie defense

When you reduce the number of players on the court, the small guys win. And 5-5 I still give the matchup to RunTMC, because Don Nelson > Mark Jackson.

Twinkie defense

Too many losses to crappy teams.

Rodrigues_Islander

Fire Mark Jackson now, we should have 60 wins. If not for his clock management and that assistant coach problem, we would have 60 wins.
Honestly, the Jackson haters have a very short memory. The Warriors are going to finish almost exactly where many people predicted – except perhaps for Portland, which of the teams ahead of the Warriors in the West should they have bested?