NEJeremy

Posted 30 November 2017 - 08:50 PM

NEJeremy

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It’s interesting how at least so far for Nebraska, the LRC has proved to be pretty useless if that’s a good way to describe it. The LRC is understood to start in October and the first 10 days of October we had over 5” of rain including 3” on the 6th. Now the cycle has been said to be anywhere from 45-60 days and last I heard, Lezak was thinking 49-51 I believe. We’re now to December and even the 5-6th storm looks like weak sauce here. That’s 60 days from our big storm in October which is at the very longest length and we’ve had zilch so far if the cycle is actually supposed to be shorter meaning we’ve passed a shorter length already. Frustrating times indeed.

Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 30 November 2017 - 09:03 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

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LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

It’s interesting how at least so far for Nebraska, the LRC has proved to be pretty useless if that’s a good way to describe it. The LRC is understood to start in October and the first 10 days of October we had over 5” of rain including 3” on the 6th. Now the cycle has been said to be anywhere from 45-60 days and last I heard, Lezak was thinking 49-51 I believe. We’re now to December and even the 5-6th storm looks like weak sauce here. That’s 60 days from our big storm in October which is at the very longest length and we’ve had zilch so far if the cycle is actually supposed to be shorter meaning we’ve passed a shorter length already. Frustrating times indeed.

Unfortunately they don't always come back the same way. Like you could have a -NAO in October and that couldn't mean s**t for you but come back when it repeats you have a +NAO and it still doesn't mean s**t for you lol.

Tom

Posted 01 December 2017 - 03:49 AM

Tom

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00z Euro with a dynamic and explosive system! Intensifies from a 994mb near OMA at 12z Dec 4th to a massive 976mb GL;s monster over Lake Superior in 24 hours! Sweet looking defo band showing up for MN peeps! This system is trending nicely....

This storm is doing exactly what I thought it would on the Euro. Now, we just need the rest of the models to catch up to it. WI peeps even get some wrap around snow/snow showers.

Tom

Tom

Posted 01 December 2017 - 04:07 AM

Tom

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It’s interesting how at least so far for Nebraska, the LRC has proved to be pretty useless if that’s a good way to describe it. The LRC is understood to start in October and the first 10 days of October we had over 5” of rain including 3” on the 6th. Now the cycle has been said to be anywhere from 45-60 days and last I heard, Lezak was thinking 49-51 I believe. We’re now to December and even the 5-6th storm looks like weak sauce here. That’s 60 days from our big storm in October which is at the very longest length and we’ve had zilch so far if the cycle is actually supposed to be shorter meaning we’ve passed a shorter length already. Frustrating times indeed.

As Craig mentioned, not every cycle will behave the same way, esp in the Winter months. With that being said, one can have a valid argument (as I believe), this LRC could be portrayed as a 60-day cycle. I have shown many examples of a 30-day harmonic cycle and this system is now beginning to stand out and solidify my believe that we are indeed seeing either A) 30-day Harmonic repeating LRC Cycle # 2 beginning its new cycle.

Just look at the precip shield being shown on the 00z Euro and its trending towards the Oct 6th-7th storm....

Tom

Posted 01 December 2017 - 04:12 AM

Tom

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FWIW, 00z Euro control loves MN peeps! 00z EPS is also trending snowier for ya'll up in MN...I'm enthusiastic to see this trending in the right direction. Hey, maybe James might score some snow out of this in N IA!

jaster220

Posted 01 December 2017 - 06:05 AM

jaster220

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@ Tom

Nice trends! Cold on the move is always an "octane booster" from my experience over the years. Going to see if any MI offices are talking up this trend in their overnight AFD's? Could be some wind for SMWI at least..

Tom

Posted 01 December 2017 - 06:46 AM

Tom

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12z NAM trending in the right direction...gotta love it, this storm is heading towards my camp from my initial call. MN peeps are going to cash in...heck, the way the 12z NAM looks at HR 84, NE peeps may get back wash snows from the developing Defo band. This is a season where you cannot disregard the last minute surprises given the nature of how this season has set up since Oct.

Tom

Sounds a whole lot like what's being portrayed by the models now with the Euro leading the way on next week's system.

As for the griping on the (L)RC - I'd fault the writers listing a prelim number of days, and not Ma Nature herself. Looks like a longer full cycle is in the making/confirming thus 60-ish days.

And yeah, you have to read the fine print right next the asterisk (*) at the bottom of the (L)RC contract. In case you missed that, here it is..

" *Exact duplicate results for yby are not guaranteed upon re-looping of systems"

Haha, that's funny and yet right on point! Like you said, nothing in nature is going to happen "exactly" and using the LRC's technology is intended to portray a "general" storm track and as a forecaster you need to include A) Seasonal Shifts Blocking and other influences that can adjust systems, troughs, ridges, etc.

Niko

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:01 AM

Niko

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I'm not going to get snow from this dynamic system, but, boy, its going to provide some brief warmth w temps in the 50s or 60s, along w showers and very strong winds followed by true "Arctic Air" and rap around snowshowers or squalls and temps just getting colder and colder and colder as the week progresses.

ATM, it looks like SEMI will be getting bouts of snows during the remainder of the week, but tbh, not sure how much, but hopefully, some accumulations. IMHO, a storm could pop up at any moment during the course of this "Arctic Airmass" and provide this sub forum feet of snow outta nowhere. Think of it like an "Express Train" arriving unexpectedly and people reacting so surprised and amazed.

Niko

I appreciate your analogy effort pardner, but the vast majority of us American peeps rarely ride/rode a train unless you grew up in a top-5 metro region..

Trains are my number 1 rides whenever I visit NYC. Taxis are my 2nd rides. You get to your destination a lot faster than driving a car. I usually drive my car to Astoria, Queens and take the N train from there. Its impossible to survive your car brakes more than a month when driving in Manhattan.

I was fortunate enough to have been born and raised in one of the top #1 cities.

Tom

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:47 AM

Tom

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Remember not long ago the models were cutting off the trough in the SW??? This is a year where the flow doesn’t allow these troughs to cut off as they dive into the west. Instead, they come out and dig unlike we have seen in a number of years.

St Paul Storm

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:56 AM

St Paul Storm

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850s are warm at the onset but crash. Surface temps will lag a bit. I’ll be damned if I complain about ratios, but it may hold accums down. 2-4” looking quite possible at this point. Let’s see what the King says.

jaster220

Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:54 AM

jaster220

St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

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850s are warm at the onset but crash. Surface temps will lag a bit. I’ll be damned if I complain about ratios, but it may hold accums down. 2-4” looking quite possible at this point. Let’s see what the King says.