1115:CYPPRESS:01

Nicosia, Mar 10 (CNA) -- "The security of the eastern Mediterranean is
tenuous at best and can easily and quickly become a theatre of war that can
spread to the Middle East."

This was said by Professor, Dr Andre Gerolymatos, at the Department of
History, Hellenic Studies Chair, of the Simon Fraser University, in
Vancouver, Canada.

The Canadian Professor was addressing an audience last week at the
Begin-Saddat Centre for Strategic Studies of the Bar Il Lan University in
Jerusalem, Israel.

He warned that "with the speed of modern communications and fast
reaction time of advance weapon systems any crisis in the Aegean (Sea) or
Cyprus has a strong probability of degenerating into a full-scale
conflict."

The Canadian Professor said "it is not inconceivable that a Greek-
Turkish war could invite a Syrian attack and expand the conflict beyond the
Aegean or Cyprus.

"A defeat of Turkey even on a limited scale will also bring about
internal unrest and bring that country even closer to a Muslim
fundamentalist social-political regime."

Dr Gerolymatos said succeeding Turkish governments have undertaken to
undermine the stability of the Middle East by diverting the course of the
Euphrates in order to achieve a monopoly of the water supply.

He said "the latter consideration and the territorial claims of Syria,
as well as that country's support of the Kurds have created another
unstable frontier in southeastern Anatolia that has implications for
Israeli-Syrian relations."

The Canadian Professor referred to the Turkish invasion and the
occupation of 37 per cent of Cyprus territory by Turkish troops in 1974.

He also referred to recent claims by Turkey that the eastern Aegean
Imia islets and hundreds of other rocks belong to Turkey.

Greece rejected the Turkish claims citing the Italian-Turkish treaty of
January 1932, followed by the Italian-Turkish Protocol of December 1932,
and the 1947 Treaty of Paris by which Italy ceded the Dodecanese islands
and islets to Greece.

"Indeed both Greece and Turkey are presently engaged in an arms race
exacerbated by the failure to end the Turkish occupation of northern Cyprus,
and Turkish challenges to Greek sovereignty over the eastern Aegean...
Fundamentally the primary security challenge to the Greek state is a
possible Turkish aggression in western Thrace, the Aegean and Cyprus."

The Professor referred to the role of the Turkish army as a vanguard of
the secular state based on the reforms followed by the founder of modern
Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and the three military dictatorships in the
country (1960-1963, 1971, and 1980-1983).

A report prepared by the Turkish General Staff in May 1995 says the end
of the cold war has raised new problems for Turkey's security concerns.

The report emphasises that Turkey is situated in a volatile region,
which apart from the internal Kurdish danger, the country faces threats
from neighbouring countries, especially Greece.

In addition, the report stresses that regional and ethnic conflict in
the former Soviet Muslim republics, religious fundamentalism and internal
terrorism, necessitates a strong mobile army with increased firepower and
equipped with modern and advanced weapons systems.

Gerolymatos said the 650-million-dollar deal with Israel Aircraft
industries to upgrade 54 of Turkey's F-4 and the closer ties with
fundamentalist Iran reflect the tensions between the government and the
military in Turkey.

He said Turkey's objective is to create a professional army by the year
2000 and reducing its dependency on civilian conscripts.

A professional force will result in a numerically smaller army but one
that can be better controlled by the high command and less exposed to
social and religious affiliations.

In addition, greater mobility and firepower will enable the Turkish
military to maintain its commitment on several fronts and give it a greater
offensive capability in the Caucasus and the Trans-Caucasus, the Kurdish
insurrection, the Turkish-Syrian border, the occupation of northern Cyprus
and the Aegean.

Professor Gerolymatos said potential flash points between Greece and
Turkey are in Thrace and the Aegean. "Ultimately, the easiest military
intervention would be an extension of Turkey's occupation zone in Cyprus."

He said there is a substantial Turkish force in Cyprus supported and
supplied from bases on Turkey's southern coast.

"Significantly during the Imia crisis the Ankara government increased
its forces in northern Cyprus and indicated that a military confrontation
in the Aegean could result in a second invasion of Cyprus," he said.

Turkish threats of war or at the very least of limited air strikes
against Cyprus are clearly indicated by Ankara's reaction to the decision
of the Cyprus government to purchase Russian-made S-300 surface-to-air
missiles.

The Canadian Professor said Ankara's policy towards Cyprus and Greece
"depends on the ability of the Turkish army to overrun the rest of the
island as quickly as possible. This strategic advantage to hold the
Cypriots hostage gives Turkey powerful leverage in forwarding new
territorial claims in the Aegean as well as to clock Cyprus' admission to
the European Union."

The Ankara regime does not need to fear international intervention with
regards to its occupation of northern Cyprus since for the last two decades
the UN, EU, NATO and the US have contented themselves in issuing periodic
resolutions advocating a political and diplomatic solution to the Cyprus
problem.

CNA GP/1997

ENDS, CYPRUS NEWS AGENCY

1240:CYPPRESS:02

Nicosia, Mar 10 (CNA) -- A new round of proximity talks between the UN and
the Cyprus government and the Turkish Cypriots begin here today, as planned,
in bid to create common ground to allow direct negotiations between
President Glafcos Clerides and Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash to take
place.

Asked about Sir David's visit, a spokesman for the FO told
CNA Monday "it is a regular visit in his series of visits that he has been
making to Cyprus and other countries, in his efforts to support the UN
effort to achieve a comprehensive solution to Cyprus".

The Spokesman noted Sir David has regular consultations in Cyprus,
Greece, Turkey and with the partners in the European Union (EU), the UN,
the Americans and with all sorts of different parties.

Asked if Sir David will be bringing any new proposals, the spokesman
declined comment, noting "that he (Sir David) is going there for
consultation with leaders on the island".

There would be an opportunity to speak to the press while on the island,
he added.

Sir David arrives here tomorrow (Tuesday) to have a series of separate
meetings with President Glafcos Clerides and Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf
Denktash on Wednesday and Thursday.

While on the island, Sir David will attend a lunch hosted by UN
Secretary-General's resident Representative, Gustave Feissel, in his
residence on Wednesday, to be attended by political leaders as well.

In the evening of the same day, the former British ambassador to the UN
will give a lecture at the University of Cyprus on UN reform.

Before leaving, on Friday for Brussels, Sir David will give a
bicommunal press conference.

Cyprus has been divided since July 1974 when Turkish troops invaded and
occupied 37 per cent of its northern territory.