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Bitcoin Price Looking Heavy As News Turns Negative

Bitcoin's possible upside appears capped by a recent run of negative news.

Following a hack against the exchange Coincheck last week, CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index (BPI) turned lower from $11,942 (Sunday high), ultimately hitting a low of $11,110 at 09:59 UTC Monday. Still, what may be more notable is not the recent price (which continues its sideways 2018 trajectory), but the changing narrative for potential buyers.

Though the Coincheck news did not impact bitcoin directly (no bitcoin was stolen), it does appear to have marked a change in a mainstream news narrative that has breathlessly provided tailwinds for the market since late last year.

For example, the 6.9 percent drop from the high of $11,492 may be due to concerns regarding the solvency of a startup called Tether, which provides a proxy cryptocurrency used by exchanges in lieu of the U.S. dollar.

While bloggers have long accused Tether of creating the asset out of thin air, news reports are now speculating doomsday scenarios following a CoinDesk report that suggests the startup has broken ties with an auditor acquired to calm market fears.

In the press, experts have been quoted as saying that bitcoin (BTC) price could crash 80 percent if it turns out Tether is fraudulent. And though that scenario doesn't appear likely, coupled with chart analysis, it does perhaps increase the odds of a break below $10,000.

As of writing, BTC is trading at $11,064 on Coinbase's GDAX exchange. The cryptocurrency has depreciated by 1 percent in the last 24 hours, says data source OnChinaFX.

Bitcoin 4-hour chart

The above chart (prices as per Coinbase) shows-

Failed bullish breakout – BTC's failure to cut through resistance at $11,690, despite the upside break of the symmetrical triangle on Friday could end up strengthening the bears.

Bitcoin tax loophole could save cryptocurrency investors millions as it leaves HMRC short

MILLIONS of pounds could be lost by the Treasury after a tax loophole was revealed and cryptocurrency investors are expected to take full advantage of the gap, experts warn.

The massive loophole allows investors, who could have made millions when bitcoin hit its $19,343 (£14,000) high in December, to declare their returns as gambling winnings.

Winnings from gambling are generally not considered investment returns and so avoid taxation, leaving HMRC with the potential of a huge blackhole in its returns following a year of cryptocurrency boom.

An HMRC spokesman said: “We don’t normally tax betting and gambling because it is usually not classed as trading income.

“But there may be circumstances where factors such as the degree of skill and organisation would make the activity more likely to be taxable as trading income. Each case will depend on its own facts.”

The approach of the HMRC to cryptocurrency returns has been branded outdated by experts.

The rules are expected to confuse amateur investors as they leave it unclear who should be characterised as a gambler and who should fall into the taxable bracket of investor, barrister Etienne Wong claimed.

The current guidelines have not been updated since 2014 when bitcoin was worth less than £500, today a single coin will cost a trader £9,125.

According to the three year old guidelines cryptocurrencies users who buy and sell coins in a similar way to an investment are required to pay capital gains tax.

If someone is deemed to fit this description they will be forced to pay 18 per cent tax on any money over £11,300 if they pay basic-rate tax and 28 per cent if they are a high rate taxpayer.

Robert Langston of Saffery Champness has told cryptocurrency users to declare themselves as investors leaving them more likely to pay tax.

He said: "It is difficult to see how the profits on mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin could be seen as gambling profits".

"There may conceivably be some cryptocurrencies in which the markets are random, and therefore the profits could be treated as gambling."

Mr Langston has claimed that even if use is deemed gambling because investors are gaining an asset and not cash it remains taxable.

Revelations about the loophole come as investors have been warned that regulation of cybercurrency is on its way.

Crypto prices could be under threat after two of Europe’s most powerful leaders have joined efforts to regulate the speculative cryptocurrency.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel met French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss regulating bitcoin after it was suggested that the token is “a risk for financial stability”.

Bitcoin and ethereum — the first and second largest virtual currencies by market value — appeared to recover after Wednesday's lows.

Experts told CNBC earlier this week that investors had been "spooked" by news of regulatory crackdowns from both South Korea and China.

Regulators have expressed concerns over digital assets due to their extremely volatile nature and worries that they could be used for illicit activity.

Major digital currencies edged higher on Thursday, after a two-day sell-off saw the world's biggest cryptocurrency bitcoin lose more than 50 percent from its December high.

Bitcoin and ethereum — the first and second largest virtual currencies by market value — appeared to recover after Wednesday's lows.

Bitcoin fell as low as $9,199.59 on Wednesday morning, but bounced back to $11,702.74 as of Thursday at 12:00 p.m. ET, according to CoinDesk, which tracks prices from cryptocurrency exchanges including Bitstamp, Coinbase, itBit and Bitfinex. It was up 5 percent in the last 24 hours. The red-hot digital asset also broke the $12,000 level, hitting $12,045.10 at about 10:14 a.m.

Ethereum on the other hand dived below the $800 mark to a three-week low of $780.92 Wednesday, but lifted to $1,072.57 the following day. It was more than 5 percent higher in the last 24 hours.

Ripple's XRP, which is also known as ripple, surged 65 percent to $1.64 a coin, according to data from CoinMarketCap. The digital currency — which is controversial among crypto enthusiasts due the firm behind it being backed by big banks — fell as low as 90 cents the previous day.

Regulatory concerns

Experts told CNBC earlier this week that investors had been "spooked" by news of regulatory crackdowns from both South Korea and China.

South Korea — one of the largest markets for cryptocurrencies — has reportedly been considering the shutdown of trading through cryptocurrency exchanges. On Thursday, the country's policymakers said they were considering closing all domestic virtual currency exchanges, echoing a move last year from Chinese regulators.

China, separately, is reported to be deepening its clampdown of its digital currency market. According to reports from Bloomberg and Reuters, the country is planning to ban the centralized trading of digital currencies.

"Trade volumes were very noisy yesterday as the bulls and bears fought it out and some sort of calm has appeared on the markets after what has been a severe correction," Charles Hayter, CEO of digital currency comparison site CryptoCompare, told CNBC in an email Thursday.

"New has a lot to play with this," Hayter said, adding, "this market is now big and governments are sensing revenue for the coffers as well as a threat in some degrees. This will catalyze regulation where regimes who legislate severely will balkanise themselves to the industry."

Hayter said that regulation of cryptocurrencies "will be good in the long run," but warned that "unnecessary hoops and bureaucracy" could inhibit the industry's potential.

Regulators have expressed concerns over digital assets due to their extremely volatile nature and worries that they could be used for illicit activity.

Mati Greenspan, senior market analyst at eToro, said: "Now that the reasons for the recent sell-off are more clear to everyone and the slightly sour regulatory concerns have been priced in and the Asian premiums are evening out, traders will most likely start focusing on the technicals."

Greenspan told CNBC Tuesday that South Korean and Japanese investors often pay a premium of "20 percent or more per coin."

Nolan Bauerle, director of research at CoinDesk, said that the sell-off was "a feature of the global, liquid cryptocurrency trading environment."
"When the price of bitcoin drops, there is a pattern of traders that move to take different positions, either in another cryptocurrency or in fiat," he told CNBC.

"These large drops, usually between the 25-40 percent range, generally find a bottom that is a consolidation of a previous all time high. When this bottom is found, the pattern continues with demand causing a new upward bounce."

Disclaimer: This story has been amended to reflect the fact that bitcoin lost more than 50 percent from its December high.

TOKYO/SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Bitcoin extended its sharp tumble of the past 24 hours, skidding more than seven percent on Wednesday in a rapid downturn in fortunes as investors were spooked by fears regulators might clamp down on an asset whose value has skyrocketed in the past year.

The price of the world’s biggest and best-known cryptocurrency fell to as low as $10,567 on the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp exchange, not far from its six-week nadir of $10,162 touched the previous day. The session’s high was $11,794.07.

It led the fall in cryptocurrencies, although others such as Ethereum and Ripple, have also slid sharply this week after reports South Korea and China could ban trading, sparking worries of a wider regulatory crackdown.

“Cryptocurrencies could be capped in the current quarter ahead of G20 meeting in March, where policymakers could discuss tighter regulations,” said Shuhei Fujise, chief analyst at Alt Design.

At its lows on Tuesday, Bitcoin had fallen 25 percent in the session, its biggest daily decline in four months. It was a far cry from its peak close to $20,000 in December, when the virtual currency had risen nearly 2000 percent over the year.

Tuesday’s decline followed reports that South Korea’s finance minister had said banning trading in cryptocurrencies was still an option and that the government plans a set of measures to clamp down on the “irrational” cryptocurrency investment craze.

Separately, a senior Chinese central banker said authorities should ban centralised trading of virtual currencies as well as individuals and businesses that provide related services.

“Bitcoin is deciding whether this is the moment to crash and burn,” said Steven Englander, head of strategy at New York-based Rafiki Capital.

“My conjecture is that cryptocurrency holders are trying to decide whether to abandon Bitcoin because its limitations mean it will be superseded by better products or bet that it can thrive despite them.”

Bitcoin futures maturing on Wednesday on the Cboe Global Markets Inc’s Cboe Futures Exchange were at $10,740, with 1,586 contracts traded, after having opened at $10,850. The open interest was 2,895 contracts. The Cboe 14 March 2018 contract was quoted at $11,130.

The futures are cash-settled contracts based on the auction price of bitcoin in U.S. dollars on the Gemini Exchange, which is owned and operated by virtual currency entrepreneurs Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss.

The MVIS CryptoCompare Ripple Index, which covers the performance of a digital assets portfolio which invests in Ripple (XRP), a cryptocurrency developed by Ripple Labs, dropped 15 percent to $7,298 on Wednesday.

That equity index has seen a 66 percent slide in its value since the start of the year. Ripple itself was quoted at $1.15 on website CoinMarketCap, down from a high of $3.81 on Jan 4.

“The run-up in Bitcoin created a mystique of one-way trading which is being shaken but the pricing requires faith that there will always be demand,” Englander wrote.

“This is far from guaranteed given the existence of alternatives with better characteristics.”

Bitcoin investors BANNED from using their mega-profits to buy houses amid money-laundering fears

Investors who’ve made a mint are now trying to cash in on their sudden windfall by milking the UK’s property boom.

BITCOIN investors are being knocked back by mortgage lenders amid fears about money laundering.

The price of the virtual currency has rocketed nearly 1,500 percent in the past year.Some have made massive profits on Bitcoin but are facing obstacles because of transparency fears And now investors who’ve made a mint are trying to cash in on their sudden windfall by investing in the UK’s property bubble.

But lenders are now worried about the source of the cash and have been rejecting them for mortgages.

Broker Mark Stallard said one investor had a £40,000 deposit pot after investing in bitcoin but even he was denied a loan.

Mr Stallard, from House and Holiday Home Mortgages: said: "The first mortgage lender I rang asked me what a cryptocurrency was.

"I rang two other lenders and they said they would not touch it.

"When I mentioned where the money had come from there was massive reluctance to help or understand the problem.

"I do not believe the mortgage providers in general are ready for this issue and research tells me that a lot more people will be knocking on our doors with funds made or raised in this fashion.”

The perceived problem with cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, are that they are not regulated by central banks. Instead they are held digitally by people using electronic identities which allow them to remain anonymous and so could be used by criminals.

Several building societies said they would not accept a deposit derived from a cryptocurrency, while banks including Santander, Nationwide and Aldermore said they had no formal policies.

The Building Societies Association said: "There is currently no regulation of these electronic currencies, which puts them into the highest risk category in relation to money laundering.

"In addition, it is well known that such currencies are popular with criminals, who use them to launder the proceeds of crime.”

Of course if you pay cash for the property, a bank may also want to know the source of the funds, So maybe you could get the seller to accept Cryptocurrency and record the transaction on the blockchain, which opens up a new ball game.

South Korea's justice minister said on Thursday that a bill is being prepared to ban all cryptocurrency trading in the country.

That news is a major development for the cryptocurrency space, as South Korea is one of the biggest markets for major coins like bitcoin and ethereum.

According to industry website CryptoCompare, more than 10 percent of ethereum is traded against the South Korean won — the second largest concentration in terms of fiat currencies behind the dollar. Meanwhile, 5 percent of all bitcoin are traded against the won.

"There are great concerns regarding virtual currencies and justice ministry is basically preparing a bill to ban cryptocurrency trading through exchanges," Park Sang-ki said at a press conference, according to the ministry's press office.

Bitcoin tumbled more than 12 percent following Park's remarks, according to CoinDesk's bitcoin price index that tracks prices from four exchanges. At 1:26 p.m. HK/SIN, the cryptocurrency price retraced some of its losses to trade at $13,547.7.

Park added that he couldn't disclose more specific details about proposed shutdown of cryptocurrency trading exchanges in the country, adding that various government agencies would work together to implement several measures.

Reuters further reported that a press official said the proposed ban on cryptocurrency trading was announced after "enough discussion" with other government agencies including the nation's finance ministry and financial regulators.

Cryptocurrency trading in South Korea is very speculative and similar to gambling. Major cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum are priced significantly higher in the country's exchanges than elsewhere in the world. For example, bitcoin traded at $17,169.65 per token at local exchange Bithumb, which was a 31 percent premium to the CoinDesk average price.

That difference in price is called a "kimchi premium" by many traders.

In fact, earlier this week, industry data provider CoinMarketCap tweeted that it would exclude some South Korean exchanges in price calculations due to the "extreme divergence in prices from the rest of the world" and for "limited arbitrage opportunity." The exchanges that were removed from the price calculation included Bithumb, Korbit and Coinone.

Last month, the South Korean Financial Services Commission said it was prohibiting cryptocurrency exchanges from issuing new trading accounts. If an exchange does allow new accounts, the government has the ability to take action to either stop trading or shut the exchange down, the commission said in a statement.

The commission added that, since much of the cryptocurrency trading was being done anonymously, users must use their real names.

The government also indicated it would closely monitor banks and would "swiftly" step in to limit fund flows into cryptocurrencies if necessary.

Bitcoin exposed stocks in South Korea took a major hit after the announcement. Shares of Omnitel, which has a bitcoin remittance business, crashed 30 percent, Vidente shares tumbled 29.96 percent, Digital Optics fell 13.46 percent and KPM Tech was down 5.19 percent.

That news from the justice minister comes after the country's largest cryptocurrency exchanges were raided by police and tax agencies this week for alleged tax evasion, people familiar with the investigation told Reuters.

Bitcoin price appears ready for another selloff as price has formed a head and shoulders pattern on the 1-hour chart.

Price has yet to break below the neckline around the $14,000 major psychological support.

The chart pattern is approximately $3,000 tall so the resulting drop could be of the same height.

Bitcoin price is forming yet another selloff signal on a short-term time frame, but technical indicators are looking mixed.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame to suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the rally could continue. However, the gap between the moving averages has narrowed significantly to show that a downward crossover and and pickup in bearish momentum is imminent.

A break below the neckline could take bitcoin price down to the $10,000-11,000 region next while a bounce could lead to a move up to $15,000 then the highs at $17,000.

Stochastic is pulling up from the oversold region to signal a return in buying momentum while RSI also appears to be slowly heading north as well.

Market Factors

Dollar demand has once again ticked higher on record high Treasury yields, as well as record closes for equity indices. Traders are now looking ahead to a positive earnings season scheduled to start on Friday, and these upbeat expectations are likely to be sustained as tax reform kicks in.

“On a call with the Staff on January 5, 2018, the Staff expressed concerns regarding the liquidity and valuation of the underlying instruments in which the Fund intends to primarily invest and requested that the Trust withdraw the Amendment until such time as these concerns are resolved. In response to the Staff’s request, the Trust respectfully requests withdrawal of the Amendment.”

This cryptocurrency is also losing ground to its altcoin rivals, as well as equities that are performing better.

The value of bitcoin appears to be recovering after a tumultuous period for the cryptocurrency.

After hitting a new record high when it passed the $19,850 mark in mid-December, it tumbled rapidly, falling to below $12,000 within days.

It has been constantly rising and falling ever since, and is worth $14,932 as of Wednesday afternoon UK time, according to the Coinbase exchange.

That’s a significant improvement on yesterday, when it almost slipped below the $13,000 mark. However, earlier this morning it had been worth more than $15,370.

Its value is up more than 30 per cent over last month and more than 1,320 per cent over the last year, but recent goings-on have demonstrated just how quickly the situation can change.

The cryptocurrency’s value fell dramatically just ahead of Christmas, dropping by almost $2,000 in just an hour at one point, and almost slipping below the $11,000 mark.

Bitcoin is notoriously volatile, and its value is expected to continue to shift unpredictably. Its rise has also led to increasing amounts of interest in alternative cryptocurrencies, such as ethereum, litecoin and XRP.

Those fluctuations have caused problems with actually using bitcoin, with Steam recently announcing that it won’t be able to take it any more and multiple exchanges saying the huge amounts of trading is leading to problems with actually transferring them.

Naturally, its spectacular rise has coincided with increasing amounts of interest, with more and more people now looking to invest.

However, there are serious fears that bitcoin has created a bubble that could burst at any moment.

Numerous financial experts are advising potential investors to avoid getting involved with bitcoin, though others are speculating that it could keep rising towards the $1m mark.

Bitcoin only exists online, has no central bank and isn’t linked to or regulated by any state.

An anonymised record of every bitcoin transaction is stored on a huge public ledger known as a blockchain.

However, transactions made with the cryptocurrency are irreversible, which makes investors in bitcoin attractive targets for cybercriminals.

Bitcoin rises 10% on Peter Thiel fund’s likely holding; may revisit December high

Bitcoin prices advanced over 10 per cent in two trading sessions after The Wall Street Journal reported Peter Thiel's Founders Fund has amassed hundreds of millions of dollars of the volatile cryptocurrency.

The report further said that the fund bought $15 to $20 million worth of the cryptocurrency and multiplied the principal investment by over 5 times.

Bitcoin jumped to $14,951 on January 3 from $13,354 on January 1. During the period, the digital currency hit a high and low of $15,300 and $12,787, respectively.

Peter Thiel is an entrepreneur and investor. He started PayPal in 1998, led it as CEO, and took it public in 2002, defining a new era of fast and secure online commerce. He is a partner at Founders Fund, a Silicon Valley venture capital firm that has funded companies like SpaceX and Airbnb.

According to another report, vice president of Group Nduom, Papa-Wassa Chiefy Nduom has advised the Bank of Ghana to expand its investment by putting some of its funds in bitcoin.

He further advised the bank to put around 1 per cent of Ghana's reserves in bitcoi

According to Reuters, bitcoin may revisit its December 17, 2017 high of $19,666 in three months, as suggested by its wave pattern. The deep correction from this high has been driven by a wave (4), the fourth wave of a five-wave cycle from the July 16, 2017 low of $1,830. This wave is expected to be totally reversed by an upward wave (5).

Back home, bitcoins or such cryptocurrencies are not legal tenders and those indulging in such transactions are doing it at their own risk, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said on Tuesday as several members expressed concerns over trading on these platforms.

Bitcoin has had a blistering trip over the past 12 months. Its price at the start of the year was about $1,000.

It has skyrocketed since – more than doubling in value since November – drawing interest from major firms as well as private investors.

But since Sunday Bitcoin has been on a losing streak, falling back to where it was at the start of December.

Analysts said investors should be prepared for such rapid changes, which have characterised the asset from its start.

"This is exactly how this asset trades and has done since the beginning," said Nick Colas, co-founder of New York-based DataTrek Research. "It has a lot of volatility and it will for the foreseeable future."

What happened on Friday?

This week's plunge led to a flood of trades that swamped one of Bitcoin's major exchanges, Coinbase, on Friday. A technical slowdown prompted the firm to halt buying and selling twice.

The CME and CBOE exchanges in the US also temporarily suspended trading of certain Bitcoin futures contracts, which allow investors to bet on where they expect the price of Bitcoin to be at certain points in the future.

The exchanges have automatic brakes that apply once a commodity or asset has moved by a certain amount – as happened in this case.

What sparked the slump?

The market remains driven by sentiment, according to Charles Hayter, founder and chief executive of industry website Cryptocompare.

"A manic upward swing led by the herd will be followed by a downturn as the emotional sentiment changes," he said.

Some traders would have been cashing in on the spectacular gains made over the year, he added.

Concerns about the infrastructure behind crypto-assets may also be spooking investors, said Nick Colas, himself a Bitcoin trader.

In recent weeks, markets have been rattled by hacks and allegations of insider trading.

He attributes some of this week's slump to the launch of a new crypto-asset that came earlier than planned. The surprise temporary shutdown of Coinbase on Friday was the kind of thing that could erode investor confidence, he argued.

"It is not OK to just take trading offline randomly through the day," he said. "The robustness of that system is just as important to their confidence… as the price of crypto-currencies themselves."

A spokesman for Coinbase said the firm was working around the clock to ensure smooth trading. Friday's suspensions lasted for about two hours in total.

"We're doing everything within our power," the spokesman said.

What exactly is Bitcoin?

A digital asset, Bitcoin is not backed by any governments. It is created through a complex process known as "mining", and then monitored by a network of computers across the world.

There is a steady stream of about 3,600 new Bitcoins a day, with more than 16.5 million now in circulation. Supply is expected to peak at about 21 million.

Every single transaction is recorded in a public list called the blockchain.

This makes it possible to trace the history of Bitcoins to stop people from spending coins they do not own, making copies or undoing transactions.

What are authorities saying about Bitcoin?

Regulators around the world have stepped up their warnings about its provenance as an investment.

One of this week's most striking comments came from Denmark's central bank governor, who called it a "deadly" gamble.

Earlier this month, the head of one of the UK's leading financial regulators warned people to be ready to "lose all their money" if they invested in Bitcoin.

Andrew Bailey, head of the Financial Conduct Authority, told the BBC that neither central banks nor the government stood behind the "currency" and therefore it was not a secure investment.

Despite the risk to individuals, US authorities have said they do not think it is a big enough part of financial markets to be a threat to broader economic stability.