Requires full disclosure of material information to all investors at the same time. I'm surprised no one is picking up on this... Sirius telegraphed pretty clearly what is going on here. Read this statement again...

"The company is in discussions with several financial institutions regarding a financing to replace its 2-1/2% Convertible Notes due 2009. In connection with these discussions, the company is releasing the material elements of its five-year operational and financial forecast."

If the company is in discussions with a lendor who is also an equity investor, and they request Sirius' 5-year projections on estimates -- then be law (REG FD) they must release this information to all investors at the same time.

So there is your answer... one of the investors Sirius is in discussion with is already an investor, so they had to make this filing public. And now that it is complete, they can presumably complete the negotiation to refinance the debt -- assuming the lendor is still interested.

I still believe that this $250 million outstanding will be refinanced.

Reg fd

Found it:

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC's) Regulation Fair Disclosure, also commonly referred to as Regulation FD or Reg FD was an SEC ruling implemented in October 2000 ([1]). It mandated that all publicly traded companies must disclose material information to all investors at the same time.

The regulation sought to stamp out selective disclosure, in which some investors (often large institutional investors) received market moving information before others (often smaller, individual investors).

Regulation FD changed fundamentally how companies communicate with investors, by bringing better transparency and more frequent and timely communications, perhaps more than any other regulation in the history of the SEC.

I can't and won't make predictions that the refinancing will get done at all -- or that it would be announced on Monday. But at the same time, if they're at the point of a REG FD disclosure, then they must be pretty far along in the discussions... at least, I would think.

Someone speculated that the interest rate could be tied to the projections - but I don't know the validity to that. Regardless, if a lendor is requiring to know the companies internal top line projections - as well Adj EBITDA and FCf - then they're obviously taking the discussions seriously.

It could get done and announced on Monday, I suppose. But I'm hesitant to suggest that it will. Not with the current state of the debt market.