Well, this is it, the last required information dump (hehe, dump) for the masses in preparation for your 2014 Fantasy Football Draft. And here it is, the auction values have been released. But I’m guessing you already knew that, because, of well, ^. For those of you who have never played in an auction draft, or for those of you who do nothing but make it rain when you here the words Jamaal and Charles in the same sentence, I’ll go over some pointers so as to facilitate moderate to heavy alcohol consumption without the fear of drafting David Wilson.

These strategies and values are based on a 12-team, $200.00 budget auction draft.

– Make a list of targets, and find peace with the fact that you’ll land some, and you’ll lose out on others. You really like Ryan Mathews? Oh, that’s just me? Okay, well… you like Keenan Allen, right? Of course you do, why wouldn’t you? Well, guess what, me too! And you know what? I’ll probably outbid you on him. But that’s okay, because I deserve him and the rest of the Chargers roster. It’s also okay because right next to Allen’s name, you should have Victor Cruz‘s name as well. Always have a back-up to a back-up to a back-up on your target list, and make sure you use our values to decide whether or not you are getting value. For example, let’s say I won the bidding for Allen, but I got him at $30.00, $5.00 more than his stated value and too rich for your blood. (Who gives blood a checking account anyways?) And you see Cruz’s bidding start slowing down at $19.00… now’s the time to jump in.

– Related to making a list of targets above with values, try to plan out a budget for each position using those values. Use Excel, Google Sheets, pen and paper, dark wizardry, it doesn’t matter. Simply, just have a general sense of what you want to spend and how much. For example, you really want to try and land the underrated Cam Newton at $15.00? That’s very possible! And guess what, his value is at $18.00… so that’s potentially $3.00 you can add to your RB pool that allows you to go for a Reggie Bush ($22.00) instead of a Joique Bell ($19.00). No auction draft will go to plan, but if you have this list in front of you, do the math on the fly and see how you can mix and match when you win players at a value or vica versa, you’ll have a huge leg up on your league-mates, and you’ll be surprised how little money you leave on the table at the end.

– Don’t be afraid to overpay for “your” guys. We all have a few guys that we each personally believe in. I’m a huge Kendall Wright guy this season, even in Standard Scoring leagues, and if I have to pay, let’s say, $5.00 more than his value ($17.00), I’m okay with that. I’ll find value elsewhere. You could call it the ‘know when to play ’em, know when to fold ’em’ mentality, but in auctions, I’m very aggressive in getting ‘my guys’. Don’t let the market or the other owners dictate your team. That doesn’t mean go crazy and spend $80.00 on Petyon Manning (and that’s just for his forehead), bring a balanced approach, but if you truly believe in a guy, pay that extra money and know that you can find savings later in the draft.

– Throw a few names out there early that you want. There are a lot of strategy guides out there that tell you to never buy in the first hour, or don’t nominate a player you want. Okay, but you might miss out on really good early values when people are buying into what everyone has told them, just sitting there and waiting. Let’s say you throw out Zac Stacy as one of your early nominations… my bet is, not many people are going to enter into a bidding war, because they want to save their money and position for guys like Eddie Lacy and Montee Ball. Fantastic, that’s value right there, and you’ve essentially set the market.

I started looking at the auction values and am a little confused. Aren’t the auction values tied into the projections? Some players have pretty big gaps between the two. (Kaep jumps 5 spots between projections and auction values; Eli drops 15). Is ADP factored in?…ECR?…voodoo?

No, only the rankings are based on the projections. These auction values are based on what you can expect from a draft based on ADP’s right now. Obviously, auction drafts are different, as the market will usually gravitate to perceived value by the entire league. I wanted my numbers to reflect that.

@Matt: It still does that, but the values are more reliant on what the consensus is. For example, Kendall Wright, based on his projections, is probably worth $30.00. Based on a generic market place, he should be going around $17.00. If I gave you an auction value of $30.00, there would be no savings. Obviously, these numbers are still geared towards who we like an don’t like, but again, auctions are so heavily affected by the market, basing it on projections would give you really bad numbers.

@Jay: Jay, I asked you the same question on the auction value page itself so you can ignore that one. I have to say that I agree with Matt that auction values based on your end-of-season projections would be more valuable. But we all get this site for free, so I don’t want to sound like I’m complaining.

For baseball, you’d assign auction values based on projections not ADP, so why is it different for football? Is it just how the crowd drafts in football? Wouldn’t showing the biggest gaps in ADP$ and projection$ show you which players are being drafted too soon/too late?

I’m not sure this is true. When I do auctions, I find values that are based on the general consensus of value. For example, I have Victor Cruz at $25.00. If I based it on my projections, he would probably be around $31.00. But based on consensus value, no one will pay that much, so why should you? He should be bought at proper value.

Bench: Lamar Miller, Chris Ivory, Christine Sixteen Michael (gonna probably be on my roster all year so he can be a $10 keeper next year), Devonta Freeman, Mike Wallace, Kenny Britt.

Just dropped my kicker and D to pick up Shorts and Mark Ingram as well. I’m high on McCown as a low 4000 25 TD guy, but would you still try to package something for Romo or even a higher end QB by end of preseason. Guy with Romo wants Gio and I refuse to budge on that. Which two players do you think I’ll end up having to drop for kicker and D before first game?

Why are you so low on AJ green in your rankings? I have the 10th overall pick in .5PPR league and am considering him with my first pick. Other options would be demarco murray, montee ball, Brandon Marshall and marshawn lynch. Thinking of doubling down on AJ and then Julio. Thoughts? Thanks

I’d probably go Murray right there. I don’t think Dalton will throw as many attempts (598 last season, career high was 528), especially with Hue Jackson running the offense… he’s still a top-10 guy for me, but I don’t think we see gaudy numbers this year.

I’m assuming your values reflect end of the season value, right? The reason I ask is because I play in a 14 Team PPR league that has to play a rookie every week (flex position that can be QB/RB/WR/TE). With rookie contributions being unpredictable going into the season, my strategy going into the draft is to usually grab at least 1 guy who has the opportunity to contribute right out the gate and spend a late round flier(s) on players who aren’t guaranteed reps going into the season but can contribute if injuries arise (people like Mike James and Keenan Allen last year). Which rookies do you like going into the season for immediate contributions and who do you like for later contributions?

Unlike our rankings, these auction values are based on what you can expect from a draft based on the perceived value, not end of season projections. As for your strategy, it’s a good one. I like Sankey, but I think that cat is out of the bag on that one. Not a rookie, but I’m grabbing Dwayne Allen everywhere. Odell Beckham is a name I like, and I might try to sneak Gavin Escobar in there.

@Jay: Granted, I’m no expert, I’m just the guy drinking on lunch break because work pissed him right off this morning, but I’d make the move for one of those two now. I’m assuming Jennings isn’t starting for you unless it’s a deep league, and he ain’t gonna be a difference maker for anyone this year.

I see your highest auction values are from 50 to about 55 bucks (minus JCharles). If you look at yahoo prices, there are a number of guys that are in the 60’s. Is it unwise to pay that much for a player? Or would you recommend spreading your money out and going after a bunch of 30 dollar guys?

I know its my team and I can do what I want, but what would your strategy be in this situation? My league tends to go nuts in the first round…

@Bryce Krispie Treats: Yeah, work against that grain. If your league goes crazy nuts in the first rounds, try not to compete with it. It’s okay to get in the 60’s, auction drafts are always so unique to each league… but I like get one or two expensive mainstays, and then grab value wherever and whenever I can.

Just what the guy who wants to stroll into a live draft without studying needed. Is there a printable version so I can just pull this out of my pocket? I’m not tech savvy and copy and pasting into Word is sloppy.

No question today. Just wanted to let you know the columns in all your ranking tables are shifted to the right one place for ECR and ADP. Noticied it when I was getting updates to prep for my first draft tomorrow.

@Jay: Thanks for the input, that’s where I’m leaning too, Gronk definitely might be the best value but he’s way riskier and it doesn’t look like anything will get resolved about his status before my draft.

@Steve Stevenson: Hey Steve, Jay asked me if I could help out with some of these questions while he is on the road with Nick!

Grimes is def the guy to own as the Foster handcuff. He’s not too exciting of an own in most 10 team leagues simply cuz you could prolly find lesser starters or RBBC guys on waivers over Grimes, who would only be relevant if Foster was hurt. That being said, 9 bench spots seems deep enough where he should be rosterable.

I’m going in to a Yahoo Pro league auction with the following strategy (it’s a a standard 1 qb, 2Rb, 3wr, TE, D, K league). I am thinking of spending most of the money on two top RBs, and Graham. That should cost about $170-$180. $1 for bench players, QB, K, DEF, leaves $10-$20 for starting WRs. I like Maclin ($3.3), Edelman ($3.2), Kendall Wright ($2.2) and Terrance Williams ($2.2), Eric Decker and Mike Wallace at $2 are also good candidates.

It’s not the worst strategy, but also not one I love either. In auctions I prefer to have a more well rounded team than top heavy. Youd have to be pretty sure you could land those WR for that price. Based on Fantasy Pros auction prices, I see T Will as $8, Maclin as $11 and Wright as $11

@Jay: PPR keeper league where we are only allowed to keep one keeper drafted in the 6th round or later (losing a pick in the round of the keeper). my only option for this year is ty hilton in the 6th. worth keeping him or just go in with no keepers (which about half the league does)?

Hi Jay I have a te question. 8team ppr idp league. I have Olsen as my starter looking for a backup I have Walker. I am not sold on Locker being that good. Just curious on your opinion on who you like better. Ertz, Eifert, L Green, H Miller, Rivera, or Cook with Bradford back just wondering if he is just a 1 game wonder. I read your ratings after I drafted was surprised at how high you guys rate Olsen. thanks

I dont know how Jay feels, but I personally LOVE Olsen. In fact, I have him 5th in my TE rankings. He joins Graham as the only tight ends who will likely be the #1 targets for their QB this year.

As for your backup choices, the first 4 you mentioned are ALL better options than Walker. Walker really isnt that gifted of a tight end (slow, not too athletic) and fared much better last year when Fitzpatrick was at QB, not Locker.

If Im grabbing any of those 4 guys, its Green, who has been running plays in the slot. Lots of upside there. Ertz would be my 2nd choice. Kelly loves to use his tight ends in that offense.

Cook is a physical specimen but like you said, seems to be highly overrated because of one big game more than a year ago

I like that team and like the strategy you used on those 2 WR. Your RBs are gonna give you some fits (Michael, Hyde, Pierce dont even have guaranteed “jobs”), but Vereen and Thomas are upgrade because its a PPR league.

Mocks are getting tougher and tougher to do these days because, like you said, the settings are specified so everyone is drafting differently

@Comatose: I would trade Odell, trying to play on his rookie hype. I’d usually say Lamar Miller, but with DeMarco and Mathews, you need depth there. Overall though, the team is okay. Ebron could surprise as well.

Two things I would add to this.
1 Leave yourself money at the back end of the auction.
There will be hella values late and you don’t want to be stuck
hoping you get your guy for $1 then someone quickly says $2.
2 Don’t always start the bid at $1 for the guys you really are targeting.
It makes a huge difference when someone has to say $12 as opposed
to $2 when the you have the player valued at that price anyhow.

@frankgrimes: I agree with one, yes. Two can be tricky, because if you start with too high a bid, you could be leaving value on the table. In most cases, it serves as a time saver, as it makes no sense to start Megatrons bidding at a buck.

My second I made some mistakes, had the 5th pick, 10 team standard. I literally had 5 straight picks where the guy before me drafted who I needed. I am not thrilled but the team isn’t that bad TBH.

Even though he’s gonna have a good season, I regretfully drafted Ryan in like round 6 because it came down to 2 seconds and I hesitated trying to put together he best pick as to where I took a 2nd QB in this league in round 15… Phillip Rivers, could I Waited 9 rounds.

@Jay: Cool. Then the million dollar question is…with Crabtree and Stacy as keepers who should go #1 and #2?

We only required to start 1RB, 2 WR and 2 Flex (WR./RB and WR/TE).

On one hand since there is potential to start 4 WRs makes me want to draft Charles and then Megatron to pair with Stacy and Crabtree
But…
On the other hand there is the thought of grabbing Charles and McCoy and leaving WR1 duties to the likes of Crabtree, Roddy/Wright/Patterson/Wayne

Which route you think is best? Or do you see a better route altogether?

@Ron: Definitely. And just to note, the system FantasyPros provides does not allow a custom ranking of half-PPR values, which is unfortunate. I would have liked to rearrange it in my own list, but that would cause a domino effect in terms of ECR and accuracy tests. It’s… disappointing.

I don’t have much to spend. I have about $110 left of $260 to spend. I’m thinking of going after a stud top receiver that is left (marshall, green, andre) and maybe a 10-15 WR and RB and just picking the bottom of the barrel for TE and IDP players.

What do you think…I’d love some help with strategy. There are really no good RB’s left and because it’s a 3 wr league I’m thinking of loading up there

@vinnie: Buy QB’s and make sure they are good ones. No later than tier 3 for both of them. Mix and match value… in this format, I would aim for an Aaron Rodgers at full price, then try to get value with a Philip Rivers. Use 3 of those WR slots for high upside plays, like Kenny Stills, Kelvim Benjamin, etc., where ever you can get value. For TE, I’m buying Kelce and Dwayne Allen, should be cheap and could be difference makers.

In some of the first comments, you urge us not to confuse your projected values with your auction values (For example, you listed Kendall Wright as having a $17 auction value but your projected stats for him give him a $30 value.
Can you give us a list of your players whose projected values best exceed their auction values? I, for one, would love to know.

@Mike: That was sort of a guestimate to give an example. I believe you can find that out by checking out my rankings, and comparing that to league context. Though, you bring up a good point, and I might do a complete value breakdown next season before drafts happen.