(a customer walks in the door.)Customer: Good Morning.Owner: Good morning, Sir. Welcome to the National Brexit Emporium!Customer: Ah thank you my good man.Owner: What can I do for you, Sir?C: Well, I was, uh, sitting in the public library on Thurmon Street just now, skimming through ‘Rogue Herrys’ by Horace Walpole, and I suddenly came over all British.O: British, sir?C: Perfidious.O: Eh?C: ‘Ee I were all ‘angry-like!O: Ah, angry!C: In a nutshell. And I thought to myself, ‘a little fermented Brexit will do the trick’, so, I curtailed my Walpoling activites, sallied forth, and infiltrated your place of purveyance to negotiate the vending of some Brexity comestibles!O: Come again?C: I Want To Leave The EU.O: Oh, I thought you were complaining about the Bulgarian tambura player!C: Oh, heaven forbid: I am one who delights in all manifestations of the Terpsichorean muse!O: Sorry?C: ‘Ooo, Ah lahk a nice tune, ‘yer forced to!O: So he can go on playing, can he?C: Most certainly! At least until 2019. Now then, some Brexit please, my good man.O:(lustily) Certainly, sir. What would you like?C: Well, eh, how about a little 350 Million a Week.O: I’m, a-fraid we’re fresh out of 350 Million, sir.C: Oh, never mind, how are you on Negotiating Free Trade Agreements with the rest of the world?O: I’m afraid we never have that at the end of the week, sir, we get it fresh on Monday.C: Tish tish. No matter. Well, stout yeoman, four ounces of British Empire 2.0, if you please.O: Ah! It’s beeeen on order, sir, for two weeks. Was expecting it this morning.C: ‘T’s Not my lucky day, is it? Aah, Have you some Impact Assessments?O: Sorry, sir?C: Financial Viability, Strategic Studies, that sort of thing?O: Normally, sir, yes. Today the van broke down.C: Ah. Agricultural assessments?O: Sorry.C: Regional assessments? Disadvantaged Areas?O: No.C: Any Supply Chain impacts, per chance?O: No.C: Military? Aerospace?O: No.C: Academic cooperation?O: No.C: Banking Sector? Insurance? Capital Markets?O: No.C: Fishing?O: No.C: Medicines and Biotech?O:(pause) No.C: Automotive?O: No.C: Extractive and Mining?O: No.C: Telecommunications, IT Sector, Information Security, Machine Learning, Media, Parcel and Bulk Transportation, Microelectronics, Nano-engineering, Quantum Computing?O: No.C: Horticultural, perhaps?O: Ah! We have Horticultural, yessir.C:(suprised) You do! Excellent.O: Yessir. It’s ah… it’s a bit runny.C: Oh, I like it runny.O: Well,.. It’s very runny, actually, sir.C: No matter. Fetch hither la Brexite de la Belle Bruxelles! Mmmwah!O: I…think it’s a bit runnier than you’ll like it, sir.C: I don’t care how fucking runny it is. Hand it over with all speed.O: Oooooooooohhh……..! (pause)C: What now?O: The cat’s eaten it.C:(pause) Has he?O: She, sir.(pause)C: Open Skies Agreements?O: No.C: Access to High Skills Labour Pools?O: No.C: Gibraltar?O: No.C: Scottish Independence Referendums?O: No.C: European Cities of Culture?O: No sir.C: You… do have some Brexit, don’t you?O:(brightly) Of course, sir. It’s a Brexit shop, sir. We’ve got-C: No no… don’t tell me. I’m keen to guess.O: Fair enough.C: Uuuuuh, Enhanced Border Controls.O: Yes?C: Ah, well, I’ll have some of that!O: Oh! I thought you were talking to me, sir. Mister David Enhanced Border Controls Davis, that’s my name.(pause)C: Security Co-operation?O: Uh, not as such.C: Uuh, Extradition Agreements?O: NoC: Environmental Standards?O: NoC: Pharmaceutical Testing?O: NoC: Children’s Soothers?O: NoC: Gastric Flushes?O: NoC: Anal Fissures?O: NoC: Transylvanian Botulism Brexits?O: Not -today-, sir, no.(pause)C: Aah, how about Customs Agreements?O: Well, we don’t get much call for it around here, sir.C: Not much ca–It’s the single most popular Brexit in the world!O: Not ’round here, sir.C:(slight pause) and what IS the most popular Brexit ’round hyah?O: ‘Illchester, sir.C: IS it.O: Oh, yes, it’s staggeringly popular in this district, squire.C: Is it.O: It’s our number one best seller, sir!C: I see. Uuh… ‘Illchester, eh?O: Right, sir.C: All right. Okay. ‘Have you got any?’ He asked, expecting the answer ‘no’.O: I’ll have a look, sir.. nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnno.C: It’s not much of a Brexit shop, is it?O: Finest in the district sir!C:(annoyed) Explain the logic underlying that conclusion, please.O: Well, it’s so clean, sir!C: It’s certainly uncontaminated by Brexits.O:(brightly) You haven’t asked me about the Irish Border, sir.C: Would it be worth it?O: Could be.C: Have you –SHUT THAT BLOODY TAMBURA OFF!O: Told you sir…C:(slowly) Have you got any Irish Border Agreements?O: No.C: Figures. Predictable, really I suppose. It was an act of purest optimism to have posed the question in the first place……. Tell me:O: Yessir?C:(deliberately) Have you in fact got any Brexit here at all?O: Yes,sir. Brexit means Brexit.C: Really?(pause)O: No. Not really, sir.C: You haven’t.O: Nosir. Not a scrap. I was deliberately wasting your time, sir.C: Well I’m sorry, but I’m going to have to sack you.O: Right-0, sir.(The customer takes out a ballot and votes out the shopkeeper)C: What a senseless waste of human life.

The top two pictures are related – improper use of antibiotics over the past few decades has created new bugs that are resistant to almost all known bacterial killers. At the same time, new antibiotics have failed to keep pace. The world is finally waking up to this huge crisis.

One hundred years ago, a flu pandemic killed between 50 million and 100 million people in a period of months. Smaller pandemics have happened since, but it is a matter of time before a virus of similar lethality makes it’s comeback.

And it’s not only a damaging flu that could make its presence felt. Old diseases like measles and whooping cough are coming back too, due to different pressure groups who believe, despite decades of medical evidence, that vaccines don’t work and are harmful. Some kids depend on the rest of us to be vaccinated in order to be protected against these diseases.

Kind of a hard one to draw, but there is increasing evidence that our oceans are becoming more acidic. This is having detrimental impacts on shellfish and other ocean organisms, which then propagates up the food chain.

We thought that common sense had finally prevailed against the use of nuclear weapons as an option in international politics. We thought wrong.

The rise (and seeming acceptance) of extremist hate groups is particularly worrying, given that the world has been there before and the consequences were so disastrous. Both media and politicians have been stoking up this hatred for quite a while.

For us on this side of the pond, we’re still waiting to understand how Britain will prosper from a withdrawal from the EU – particularly if, as expected, there is no deal. Pro-Leavers are great on rhetoric, but thin on the details of how Britain is expected to thrive economically when leaving a successful partnership that gave us 70 years of peace in Europe. The only thing we have seen so far is an increase in xenophobia and companies deciding to move out.

And finally, the biggest ongoing threat to all our lives and livelihoods – the ongoing destruction of democracy and democratic values by politicians on the make.

Like this:

This is the fourth part of my overview of QED 2016. To see the previous entries, please check out Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3.

The March of Unreason

Taking a break from the formal talks (and I am sorry I could not see Paul Zenon), I went to a panel discussion discussing the forthcoming British exit from the EU and the “post factual” age we are now apparently in.

“A lie can run around the world before the truth has a chance to get its boot on.”

Emma observed that on complex political issues people tend to follow the advice of friends over experts.

People are more likely to trust their friends over experts, because they think that experts don’t have their interests at heart.

Michael Dougan broke the Brexit lies down into four parts –

Telling lies about the here and now: According to the media now, the referendum was won by the working class of northern England. This is not true. The southern English middle class vote was by far the most important.

Fantasies about the future: Boris Johnson is still being dishonest about “special deals” that Britain will get upon exit.

Rubbishing anybody who disagrees. The message being put out at the moment is that anyone who disagrees is anti democratic.

Debasement of parliamentary democracy. A referendum only used when you can’t get what you want in parliament.

Max observed that fact-checking was relatively new to UK politics.

Are we in a “post truth society”?

Hugo Dixon made the point that demagoguery was a direct result of the financial crisis. When politicians don’t seem to be up to the job, voters start looking elsewhere.

In the land of the liars, the authentic liar is king.

Michael Dougan expressed a concern that once people find a way to get their views accepted in the mainstream, it’s only a matter of time before they seek a new target. What next? Global warming? Women’s rights?

Michael Blastland felt that a lot of the post factual talk was a direct result of scandals within the expert community.

There is nothing so damaging to the domain of evidence than the preacher who sins.

The conversation could easily have gone on for a few more hours. It was a packed room and at one stage, about thirty hands went up when the moderator asked for question from the floor. As was clearly evident from the panel discussion, Brexit is causing considerable anxiety to skeptics, scientists and rationalists in Britain and everywhere. This story has a long way to run yet.

Voters in most countries elect politicians to work in the national interest. This means taking strategic decisions that advance the cause of that country, whether that be economically, politically, culturally, scientifically, you name it. Politicians, and particularly senior politicians, are put there to make the right moves; not necessarily the popular ones.

And then we have Brexit. A constitutional referendum in July returned a wish by a majority of voters in England and Wales (but not in Scotland or Northern Ireland) for the entire UK (including Scotland and Northern Ireland) to leave the European Union. The Tory Party in the UK, currently in government, has promised to make good on this wish and is threatening to pull the rip cord in 2017.

I ask myself how any of the following predictions are really in the UK’s national interest:

Scotland’s departure from the UK. The Scottish National Party are the largest political party in Scotland. They have already tried once to break their links with the UK. Under Brexit they would almost definitely do it again. And they would almost definitely win this time.

UK banks fear that they may lose “passporting” or ability to trade freely with the EU.

The CBI in the UK are reporting a significant year on year drop in sales in September.

London may lose its top spot in banking to other cities, including Singapore, New York and Zurich.

A European army might come into existence following a UK exit from the EU, contrary to British wishes.

Dramatic fee increases are on the cards for British university students as research funding becomes uncertain.

A consensus is forming that a hard Brexit would knock off 9 billion pounds in value from investment banking and capital markets.

New border posts could be required in Ireland, threatening a hard won peace.

These are just a smattering of headlines from the last few weeks.

Flight of capital, brain drains, breakup of the UK, decline of strategically important industries, trade tariffs reimposed, worsened security situation: that’s one hell of a price to pay for restricting the number of Polish and Romanian migrants to England and Wales and putting one over on Johnny Foreigner.

If this is working in the national strategic interests of the UK, then I’m a Dutchman.

Like this:

Last week, you were asked the question if you wanted In or Out of the European Union. You voted Out.

Since then, the Pound has crashed, shares have plummeted, you lost your credit rating, Scotland has threatened independence, both major political parties are in turmoil, companies are threatening to pull out, other companies are putting investments on hold. A full blown recession is on its way.
European citizens have been threatened on the streets. Racists chant their slogans, write graffiti, leave notes and fly their flags. People are terrified.
A fragile peace in Ireland could fall apart. The UK – a Union more intermingled and intermeshed than anyone can possibly imagine, might fall apart. History has shown that such breakups are fraught with pain, injury and death.
The campaign leaders for Leave lied through their teeth. They promised none of this would happen. They were wrong. They laughed at those who urged caution. They were wrong. They admitted they had no plan beyond the referendum. This is incredible.
So here’s what you need to do. Ignore it. Drop it. Put it on ice. Kill it. Do not sign Article 50.
This was a non-binding referendum. Your people spoke, but the answer they gave threatened the very stability they wished for. In fact it did the exact opposite. It’s clear now, to anyone with half a brain, that an exit, without a properly worked out plan, would be suicide. You don’t need to go this way.
This will cause deep, deep upset, but it’s the right thing to do. Given what’s happened, I’ll bet more than a million people have since changed their mind, so a majority will breathe a huge sigh of relief if it were to happen (or not to happen, to be more precise).
Some voters may be driven to the extremes, to UKIP and the National Front; many politicians might soon lose their seats: but if there’s proper leadership and a proper explanation, this might be surmountable. Bring your best leaders to bear on this issue. Work to heal the wounds. Your politics will no doubt be colourful over the coming years, but it’s better the fights take place in parliament than on the dole queues or at the barricades.
Referendums may die as a useful political tool for a generation, but what of it? They often get side-tracked into peripheral issues anyway. Most ordinary people are not politicians: that’s why we have a parliament in the first place. Let them do the hard work of thinking and debating in the national interest. That’s what they’re paid to do.
You asked the question and you got an answer you didn’t want. In other words, you blew it. You demonstrated to the world that mistakes can happen at the highest levels, involving millions of people. So what? Eating humble pie, no matter how unpalatable, is far preferable than knowingly walking into disaster.

You might not want us, but lots of us want you. We need you. Come back from the brink. Please.

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There’s been a lot of doom and gloom over Ireland’s fortunes in the event of Brexit, but I think we need to take a breath here.

Britain is not about to disappear into the Atlantic ocean. Nor is it at war with us. Nor is it about to become desperately poor and unable to trade with anyone. It will remain an actively trading nation on the edge of Europe, no further away from the continent than it was yesterday, or 200 years ago. Trade, commerce and business will continue to be important to it, as will good neighbourly relations with its major trading partners. It has no big empire to call on any more, so it will have no choice but to deal with the European countries surrounding it.

As one of Britain’s most strategically important neighbours, they will depend on Ireland and we will continue to depend on them, come what may. We have extremely strong historical, cultural and personal connections with each other. Extremely strong. These links are unlikely to diminish, not now, not ever. Frankly, we’ve been through much worse together and somehow muddled through. This talk about customs points and border checkpoints and needing a visa to travel to the UK is complete guff, because people on both sides won’t let it happen.

A few years ago, both countries achieved something magical: the ending of a nasty protracted conflict on this island that left over 3,000 people dead before their time. The agreements that brought this horror show to an end are unlikely to be tampered with, lest the tamperers want blood on their hands. Which brings up another point: we have ways to talk to the UK, whether the EU wants us to talk to them or not. We already have a special arrangement in force concerning the management of Northern Ireland. The status of Northern Ireland cannot be ignored in any discussions on Britain’s future, which gives us some breathing room when it comes to negotiations on our future relationship.

I do not think that an isolationist Britain will ever become a reality, because frankly, I don’t think its people will let it happen. 48% of its electorate are livid about yesterday’s decision and, for reasons outlined in my last post, they are unlikely to take the emergence of a “Little Britain” lying down. Though it looks somewhat unlikely right now, common sense is likely to win out. When the weight of economic reality dawns on the Brexiters, those much maligned experts will be welcomed back into the fold and given plenty of latitude in the future direction of the country. Jingoistic ultra-nationalism was never that much of an influence in much of British politics throughout the last century, so why should it some to the fore now?

Furthermore, bad and all as it might get for Britain, we’re unlikely to do so badly out of it. Ireland is something of a Singapore to Britain’s Malaysia – a business friendly island with good relations across the globe. We now become even more interesting to American and other foreign multinationals, if we are to become the largest English speaking country in the EU, with the added benefit of close connections to Britain itself. Britain may even see a greater need for us, with all our connections into Europe and around the world, helping to grease the wheels, as it were.

I’m not saying it’s going to be a walk in the park. There could be some real pain ahead, but we’re tied by a shared history. The links that join us won’t easily sunder. A clichéd Irish expression says it all: “lookit, we’ll sort something out”. We should have hope.

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Yesterday, English nationalists won a victory in the UK. They voted to leave the EU, to kick the immigrants out of their country, to sacrifice UK cohesion, economic health and a hard won peace to achieve what they call “independence”. They voted to keep the pound and to burn up long-standing agreements with their neighbours. They voted to throw social protections into the bin, to smoke indoors and to revive steak-and-kidney pie as the national meal. If they want to call people of a different appearance by their traditional nicknames, they expect they’ll be able to do that too.

One of the major worries now is that other countries will take heart and follow suit. Nationalist movements in the Netherlands, Poland, Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary and across Europe will be emboldened by this. The re-emergence of a fractured, hateful Europe raises its head, should politicians take their collective eyes off their ball.

People have asserted that this harks back to the 1930s and the rise of a new kind of fascism. But let’s pause. There is a big difference. The revolutionaries are not in the prime of their youth. It is a revolution of the elderly. A counter-revolution populated by people who are, themselves, on the way out. True, old people will be replaced by more old people, but the values sustaining them will not be as strongly felt as they are right now. To borrow a quote from Max Planck, societal change, as with science, advances one funeral at a time.

We see signs of this counter-revolution everywhere. Poland, Hungary, Russia, Turkey, the United States and now England, as elderly authoritarians attempt to roll back the clock against the steady march of liberal values.

Equal rights, equal access and opportunities for women, LGBT people, brown people, black people, foreign people, Muslim people, non-believers, people with physical and mental issues, people with intellectual disabilities, children, traveling people, poor people, the marginalised. Food standards, health standards and living standards for all, not just the privileged few. It’s not just about people: clean water, waste reduction, carbon neutral living; sanctions against polluters and those who would be cruel to animals. This has caused great upset to some people. As change becomes becomes more evident, their annoyance only deepens.

So they fight back. They organise. They campaign. They vote. Donald Trump’s rise as a serious political force in the US is a sign of this. So too is Brexit.

But we also must remember that backlashes often create backlashes of their own; particularly if they are sudden and powerful, like what happened yesterday. With hard work from those of us who believe in progress, they will find implementing their wishes monstrously difficult. They will encounter problems and roadblocks at every opportunity. They will me made to look foolish, craven and incompetent at every turn. Theirs will be a record of failure, allowing people of goodwill a chance to make genuine change when their opportunity comes along. We might yet look back on these times and reflect, not on the breakers, but on the efforts of those who repaired what was broken.

Brexit is a setback. An enormous one. But let’s not forget that it’s happened because the march of progress has been overwhelmingly in the direction of liberal values. Those who oppose this are organised, but they are not, in the main, young. They may have their day in the sun, laughing at foreigners and trumpeting their national values, but the road is much longer than them. If we fight back, our values will win in the end.