At least
five persons, including two Frontier Corps (FC) personnel,
were injured in a targeted hand grenade attack in the
Cinema Chowk area of Turbat town in Balochistan on March
12, 2017. FC sources said that two unidentified assailants
riding a motorcycle lobbed a hand grenade on on-duty FC
personnel, injuring two troopers and three civilians.
The attackers managed to escape from the scene.

On March
7, 2017, militants targeted an Army vehicle with an Improvised
Explosive Device (IED) in the Awaran District, killing
one soldier. Sources disclosed that unidentified militants
had planted an IED on the roadside, which they detonated
with a remote control device while targeting the security
vehicle.

On February
28, 2017, at least three FC personnel and one civilian
were injured in an IED blast on the Sariab Road in Quetta,
the provincial capital of Balochistan. The bomb, which
was planted on the roadside, targeted an FC vehicle while
it was on patrol. The explosion left the vehicle partially
damaged.

On February
16, 2017, three Army personnel were killed when an IED,
targeting an Army convoy, exploded in Awaran town. The
dead were identified as Captain Taha, Sepoy Kamran Satti
and Sepoy Mehtar Jan. Another two soldiers were also injured
in the attack.

The terrorist
violence against Security Force (SF) personnel in Balochistan
during the first 75 days of 2017 was just a continuation
of the targeted killings that had seen an escalation through
2016. While the civilian and militant categories saw just
five and six fatalities, respectively, in this period
in 2017, at least 12 SF personnel were killed in 15 incidents
of militant-orchestrated attacks. 2016 saw the highest
fatalities among SFs over the preceding five years, with
153 killed. According to partial data compiled by the
South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), of the 153
SF personnel killed in 2016, 131 lost their lives in Northern
Balochistan, while the remaining 22 were killed in Southern
Balochistan.

While the
province recorded a surge in SF fatalities through 2016,
overall fatalities registered a marginal .31 per cent
decrease. According to the SATP database, Balochistan
recorded 633 fatalities through 2016, including 251 civilians,
229 militants and 153 SF personnel; in comparison to 635
total fatalities, including 298 militants, 247 civilians
and 90 SF personnel in 2015. 2016 had been a year of mixed
trends in different categories in comparison to the previous
year. While militant fatalities declined by 23.15 per
cent, SF and civilian fatalities registered an increase
of 70 per cent and 1.61 per, cent respectively.

Fatalities
in Balochistan: 2011-2017

Years

Civilians

SFs

Terrorists

Total

2011

542

122

47

711

2012

690

178

86

954

2013

718

137

105

960

2014

347

83

223

653

2015

247

90

298

635

2016

251

153

229

633

2017

5

12

6

23

Total*

2800

775

994

4569

Source:
SATP, *Data till March 19, 2017.

While the
overall fatalities had recorded a meagre diminution, the
major proportion of these fatalities came in the form
of suicide attacks. The number and lethality of suicide
attacks in Balochistan increased considerably, from just
one such incident resulting in two fatalities in 2015,
to seven attacks in 2016 resulting in 224 deaths and 434
injuries. The most deadly of all suicide blast came on
August 8, 2016, when a suicide bomber blew himself up
at the emergency ward of Quetta's Civil Hospital, killing
at least 74 persons and injuring another 100. 74 persons
includes 55 lawyers who had gathered at the hospital to
mourn the death of BBA President Bilal Anwar Kasi in a
gun attack earlier in the day.

Two other
prominent suicide attacks of the year were:

November
12, 2016: At least 52 persons were killed and another
102 were injured in suicide attack at the shrine of Shah
Norani in Khuzdar District.

October
24, 2016: At least 61 SF personnel were killed, and another
164 were injured as terrorists stormed the New Sariab
Police Training College (PTC), some 13 kilometres away
from Quetta, in the night.

Though,
the Province registered a decrease in the number of bomb
blasts from 60 in 2015 to 43 in 2016, the resultant fatalities
increased from 80 in 2015, to 262 in 2016, particularly
as a result of the suicide bombings. Similarly, the number
of major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities)
decreased in comparison to the previous year, but fatalities
in these incidents increased: as against 74 major incidents
in 2015, 2016 had recorded 59, but the resultant fatalities
increased from 397 to 500.

These trends
nullify the Government's claim of 'containing militancy'
through the implementation of National Action Plan (NAP).
This is despite the fact, as the Balochistan Home Department
disclosed on August 20, 2016, that 13,575 terrorists were
arrested and 337 were killed in some 2,825 operations
in the Province in 2015-16. The Home Department issued
a report over progress in the implementation of NAP. According
to the report, 4,223 different types of guns and 248,327
bullets and mortar shells were seized until August 2016
since January 7, 2015.

Meanwhile,
the increase in civilian and SF categories was the result,
on the one hand, of the extra-judicial killings of civilians
by SFs, and the retaliatory target killing of SF personnel
by the ethnic Baloch insurgents. Through 2016, at least
251 civilians were killed in Balochistan, of which some
138 were attributable to one or other militant outfit.
The remaining 113 'unattributed' fatalities were overwhelmingly
the work of the State apparatus and its surrogates. Of
the 3,815 civilian fatalities recorded in Balochistan
since 2004 [data till March 19, 2017], at least 1,051
civilian killings are attributable to one or other militant
outfit. Of these, 361 civilian killings (205 in the South
and 156 in the North) have been claimed by Baloch separatist
formations, while Islamist and sectarian extremist formations
-primarily LeJ, TTP and Ahrar-ul-Hind (Liberators of India)
-claimed responsibility for another 690 civilian killings,
631 in the North (mostly in and around Quetta) and 59
in the South. The 363 civilian killings attributed to
Baloch formations include at least 155 Punjabi settlers
since 2006. The remaining 2,764 civilian fatalities- 1,668
in the South and 1,096 in the North-remain 'unattributed'.
A large proportion of the ‘unattributed’ fatalities, particularly
in the Southern region, are believed to be the result
of enforced disappearances carried out by state agencies,
or by their proxies, prominently including the Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Aman
Balochistan (TNAB, Movement for the Restoration of Peace,
Balochistan). The large and continuously mounting number
of unattributed civilian fatalities reconfirms the widespread
conviction that Security Agencies engage in 'kill and
dump' operations against local Baloch dissidents, a reality
that Pakistan's Supreme Court has clearly
recognized.

Nearly
1,000 bodies of political activists and suspected separatists
have been found in the restive Balochistan province over
the past six years, according to the Pakistan Government's
official figures. A media report noted, "According
to the Federal Ministry of Human Rights, at least 936
dead bodies have been found in Balochistan since 2011."
Most of the bodies were dumped in the regions of Quetta,
Kalat, Khuzdar and Mekran-areas where Balochistan's separatist
insurgency has its roots. Rights activists said the figures
pointed to large-scale extrajudicial killings, the report
added. Relatives assert most of the victims were picked
up by security agencies. Thousands of people have disappeared
without trace in Balochistan since a separatist insurgency
gained momentum in 2007. A military-led operation was
launched in early 2005 to counter the uprising by ethnic
Baloch groups, who want a greater say in decision-making
and exploitation of the Province's abundant natural resources,
such as minerals and gas.

The Voice
for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP) has recorded 1,200 cases
of dumped bodies and asserts that there are many more
it has not been able to document. VBMP chief Nasrullah
Baloch added that most of the bodies "are of those
activists who have been victims of 'enforced disappearances'-people
who are picked up by authorities and then just go missing".
His allegations were largely in line with a 2013 report
by the independent Human Rights Commission of Pakistan
(HRCP) that recorded "credible reports of continued
serious human rights violations, including disappearances
of people, arbitrary arrests, torture and extrajudicial
killings".

Meanwhile,
the claim of the Federal Government's 'Commission of Inquiry
on Enforced Disappearances' added salt to the wounds of
the Baloch people. The Chairman of the Commission, retired
Justice Javed Iqbal, told a Senate standing committee
on December 19, 2016, that only 96 people were missing
in Balochistan and the matter had been politicised.

The representative
of Balochistan at the United Nations Human Rights Council
(UNHRC) and European Union (EU), Mehran Marri, stated,
on August 13, 2016,

The situation in Balochistan is as grave as ever.
Pakistan's military operations have been continuing
unabated. The Army Chief, the Prime Minister and
the stooge ministers, who are sitting in the Baloch
Cabinet had a meeting and they agreed on a National
Action Plan to further isolate Baloch activists,
freedom-loving nationals and the population from
the rest of Pakistan, and certain other elimination
process of genocide through a plan called the National
Action Plan.

The pro-Government
Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) also underlined
the prolonged Baloch discontent. BNP-M president Sardar
Akhtar Jan Mengal asserted, on March 5, 2017, that successive
rulers of the country over the preceding 70 years had
given nothing to the people of Balochistan, except hunger,
poverty, unemployment and lawlessness. He alleged that
the rulers had deliberately kept Balochistan backward.
The rulers had never paid attention to the development
of Balochistan and deprived its people of their due rights,
including their share in the natural resources of their
own Province. He claimed that no development could be
seen in Balochistan under the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC), and that this project would not benefit
the people of Balochistan, as not a single development
project had been launched in the region as part of the
mega project.

Dubbing
China as a 'great threat' to the Baloch people, UNHRC
Balochistan representative Mehran Marri said that "China
really-really is spreading its tentacles in Balochistan
very rapidly, and therefore, we are appealing to the international
community. The Gwadar project is for the Chinese military.
This would be detrimental to international powers, to
the people's interest, where 60 percent of world's oil
flows. So, the world has to really take rapid action in
curbing China's influence in Balochistan in particular
and in Pakistan in general." Asserting that CPEC
would convert the Baloch people into minorities in their
own homeland, Noordin Mengal, a human rights campaigner
from Balochistan, stated that, with an influx of outsiders
as a result of the project, the identity of the Baloch
was being threatened.

Concern
about demographic changes in Balochistan was reiterated
in a report by the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of
Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) on December 28, 2016, which
noted that, at the current rate of influx of Chinese nationals
into Balochistan and after completion of the CPEC, the
native population of the area would be outnumbered by
2048. The report added that, conservatively, 0.44 persons
per thousand migrate from china because of economic reasons,
resulting in an inflow of more than 600,000 people per
year in Pakistan. At present, the Baloch are 55 per cent
of the total population of Balochistan. The current growth
rate of Balochistan's population is 2.36 per cent. On
the existing rate of migration from China at 0.44 persons
per thousand and rate of population growth at 0.43 per
cent, the share of Chinese in Balochistan's population
is destined to accelerate with the completion of the CPEC.
Incoming investors and settlers have better capacities
to offer attractive prices for land acquisition-often
exceeding the growing market value. The unskilled people
of the province will face increasing challenges in maintaining
their lives without land ownership, their only productive
asset, the report observed.

Moreover,
while Balochistan is the starting point of the CPEC, the
lion's share of the project has been assigned to Punjab,
according to Federal Ministry of Interior statistics shared
with the Parliament on September 2, 2016. At present,
53 per cent of the total projects are assigned to Punjab.
According to official statistics, out of the total of
330 projects, 176 are in Punjab while only eight projects
have been allocated for Balochistan.

This has
also upset the Baloch people. Balochistan Republican Party
on September 3, 2016 alleged that Balochistan's abundant
resources were being diverted for the benefit of Pakistan's
dominant province, Punjab. Munir Mengal, the President
of Baloch Voice Foundation, asserted, on March 13, 2017,
that CPEC was a 'strategic design' by Pakistan and China
to loot Balochistan's resources and eliminate their culture
and identity.

The Federal
Government is trying to 'solve' the problem of Baloch
discontent through demographic re-engineering, instead
of addressing the challenges of development and justice,
settling large numbers of workers from the other Provinces
in Balochistan, and providing land and a range of facilities
to 'outsiders' there. On September 8, 2015, in a meeting
of the Senate's Standing Committee on Interior, Senator
Jehanzeb Jamaldini observed:

The government settled four million people in various
parts of Balochistan in the past three decade...With
broader demographic changes in the province, the
Government is converting the majority into a minority.

The Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan
(Beginning of the Rights of Balochistan) package, which
was launched by then Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani
with much fanfare on November 23, 2009, has proved an
eyewash. On its own admission, the Government has only
been able to implement 15 of the 61 proposals contained
in the package-and the success of these 15 has also been
challenged.

Islamabad
has pursued a predatory policy with regard to the people
and resources of Balochistan for decades, and there is
no present indication that this is beginning to change.
If anything, things are getting worse.

On March
14, 2017, a man identified as Kaushal Paswan (30) was
shot dead by Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist)
cadres near Mahuraushan village in the Gaya District of
Bihar. Superintendent of Police (SP), City, Avakash Kumar
disclosed that Paswan, a native of Pashewa village, was
a member of an anti-Maoist outfit- Bhakt Sangharsh Samiti-
formed in 2016 by some Dalits as a vigilante group against
Maoists, after they had killed some members of the Bhuian
and Paswan communities during the State Assembly polls
in 2015.

On March
8, 2017, four CPI-Maoist cadres were killed in an encounter
with personnel of the 205th battalion of CoBRA
(Commando Battalion for Resolute Action) of the Central
Reserve Police Force (CRPF) in the forest area of Baskatwa
under Gurpa Police Station in Gaya District. Acting on
a tip-off about a meeting of top Maoist leaders in the
area, the Security Forces (SFs) launched an operation
and, on seeing SFs, the rebels opened fired, leading to
an encounter in which the four Maoists were killed. SFs
recovered four bodies of the rebels along with their arms.
The arms included two Indian Small Arms System (INSAS)
assault rifles, one Self Loading Rifle (SLR) and one AK-47
assault rifle. The slain Maoists were identified as Anil
aka Deepak, 'zonal commander' of 'Magadh area committee',
Rajesh Ravidas, a 'sub-zonal commander'; Nepali Yadav
and Uttam.

On March
1, 2017, cadres of the Tritiya Prastuti Committee (TPC)
killed a villager, identified as Jitendra Kharwar, at
Goreya village in Rohtas District. TPC is a CPI-Maoist
splinter group and operates out of Jharkhand, the neighboring
State.

On February
21, 2017, Mantu Khaira, 'zonal-commander' of the CPI-Maoist
was killed in an anti-Maoist operation in Dahibara forests
under Anandpur in Banka District. SFs recovered two SLRs,
an AK-47 and some grenades at the encounter site.

On February
20, 2017, CPI-Maoist cadres killed one Sunil Yadav at
Champapur village in Lakhisarai District. Sunil was the
husband of the deputy mukhiya (village head) of
Champapur village.

On January
30, 2017, Sanjay Pandey, a munshi (accountant)
with Raj Kumar Constructions, engaged in construction
of rural roads, was beheaded for not paying extortion
money to the Naxals [Left Wing Extremists
(LWEs)] in Jamui District. Maoist leaflets
found near the dead body declared that those executing
Government plans with the help of the Police and without
obtaining CPI-Maoist permission would meet a similar fate.

According
to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP), Bihar has already accounted for at
least nine Maoist-linked fatalities, including four civilians
and five Maoists, in the current year (data till March
19, 2017).During the corresponding period of 2016, the
number of such fatalities stood at eight (one civilian,
two SF personnel and five Maoists).

Indeed,
the declining
trend in fatalities recorded in the
State since 2011 registered a sharp reversal in 2016.
According to the SATP database, 32 persons, including
eight civilians, 15 SF personnel and nine Maoists, were
killed in the State in 2016, in comparison to nine persons,
including four civilians, three SF personnel and two Maoists,
killed in 2015.

The surge
in civilian fatalities, which doubled in 2016 as against
2015, is worrisome indeed. Worse, SFs appear to have been
pushed on the back foot in the State. The Maoists continued
to improve their kill ratio against SFs, at 1:1.66 in
their favour, as against 1:1.5 archived in 2015.

The surge
in Maoist-related violence in 2016 was substantially the
result of three major incidents (each involving three
or more fatalities), in which three civilians, 10 SF personnel
and seven Maoists were killed, in comparison to no major
incident registered in 2015. The most
significantof these was recorded on
July 18, 2016, when 10 COBRA commandos were killed and
another five injured, in a CPI-Maoist orchestrated Improvised
Explosive Device (IED) blast and subsequent encounter
in the Chakarbanda-Dumarinala forests of Aurangabad District.
Three Maoists were also killed in the encounter.

The Aurangabad
incident will go a long way in denting the morale of the
SF personnel not just in Bihar but across all theatres
of LWE conflict in India. The manner in which the Maoists
planned and trapped the elite counter-insurgency personnel
speaks volumes of the hold the ultras enjoy in the region
, across Aurangabad, Gaya and Jamui, the epicentre of
Maoist-violence in Bihar. Incidentally, according to SATP
data, out of the total of 32 fatalities in the State in
2016, 29 (seven civilians, 13 SF personnel and nine Maoists)
were reported from these three Districts alone.

In addition
to incidents of killing, the Maoists in Bihar have also
escalated other violent activities through 2016, including
abduction (two reported incidents in which six persons
were abducted), arson (10 incidents), bomb blasts (four
occasions), attacks on railway property (three incidents),
among others. During 2015, the Maoists were involved in
three incidents of abduction in which three persons were
abducted, and three incidents of arson. No incident of
bomb blast or attack on railway property was recorded
during 2015.

The Maoists
also issued four bandh (shut down strike) calls
on different issues in 2016, in comparison to five such
calls in 2015. The Maoists had given three such calls
in the State in 2014.

Union Ministry
of Home Affairs (UMHA) data confirms the spike in the
Maoist-linked incidents in the State in 2016, with 129
Maoist-linked incidents recorded in 2016, as against 110
such incidents in 2015. A total of 163 such incidents
were recorded in 2014. Similarly, there was a marginal
spike in Maoists involved in attacking economic targets
in 2016, with 10 such incidents, as compared to nine such
attacks in 2015. A total of 31 such attacks were registered
in 2014.

Disturbingly,
out of the 38 Districts of the State, 22 Districts- Arwal,
Aurangabad, Banka, Begusarai, Bhojpur, East Champaran,
Gaya, Jamui, Jehanabad, Kaimur, Khagaria, Lakhisarai,
Munger, Muzaffarpur, Nalanda, Nawada, Patna, Rohtas, Sitamarhi,
Sheohar, Vaishali and West Champaran –are among the 35
worst LWE- affected Districts identified by the UMHA across
the country. According to SATP, Maoist activities were
recorded in at least 17 Districts in 2016 as against 22
in 2015.

On March
14, 2017, Kundan Krishnan, Inspector General (IG, Operations),
Bihar Police, admitted that there were challenges in carrying
out operations in some part of Munger, Lakhisarai and
Chakarbandha in Gaya; south GT road in Aurangabad and
Gaya Districts, besides Charkapathar and Narganjo in Jamui,
owing to the difficult terrain in these areas. He added,
"Maoist violence has certainly shown a declining
trend in the State. But four Bihar districts along the
Jharkhand border, known for their difficult topography,
namely, Aurangabad, Gaya, Lakhisarai and Jamui-still have
pockets of left-wing extremist (LWE) activity."

Apart from
CPI-Maoist, the TPC, also made its presence felt in the
State. On January 3, 2016, TPC cadres assaulted two persons,
identified as Ramvilas Ram and Ramdeep Ram in Aurangabad
District. The fear of a TPC backlash is such that it forced
the mukhiya (village head) Ramji Ram not to lodge
a Police complaint even though the victims belonged to
his family-70-year-old Ramvilas Ram (father) and Ramdeep
Ram (brother). TPC cadres had demanded 20 per cent of
the grant sanctioned by the Government for welfare schemes
in Ramji's panchayat (village level local self
government institution). The March 1, 2017, killing (mentioned
above) of a civilian in Rohtas District was the latest
TPC-related incident.

Another,
Maoist splinter, People's Liberation Front of India (PLFI),
which also operates out of Jharkhand, has been active
in Bihar. Additional Director General of Police (ADG,
Headquarters), Sunil Kumar, noted, on March 9, 2016, "Looking
at the increasing activities of the PLFI, the officials
of both the States [Bihar and Jharkhand] have decided
to share information. Earlier, PLFI was more active in
Jharkhand. So, their input will be valuable for us."

Meanwhile,
SFs arrested at least 104 LWEs in the State, including
two 'area commanders,' two 'zonal commanders' and a 'supreme
commander' of the Revolutionary Communist Centre (RCC),
in addition to 153 arrests in 2015. Till March 19, 2017,
another 11 LWEs had already been arrested in the current
year.

SF personnel
also recovered a huge amount of arms, ammunition and explosives
in Bihar. On September 8, 2016, Police seized a huge consignment
of explosives being smuggled from Jharkhand, in the Barachatti
Police Station area in Gaya District. The recoveries included
10,350 detonators and 6,500 gelatin sticks. Further, on
November 10, 2016, Police uncovered two mini gun factories
and recovered a country-made revolver and a large number
of arms-making hand-driven machines and barrels at Gorho
village under Asarganj Police Station in Munger District.

Under the
State's new surrender policy of 2013, in which the Bihar
Government provides financial assistance, including up
to INR 250,000 to top leaders who surrender; INR 10,000
as immediate assistance and INR 3,000 per month for rehabilitation,
as well as rewards for each weapon surrendered, the State
recorded the surrender of 24 LWEs in 2016, in addition
to seven surrenders in 2015.

Unfortunately,
Bihar Police continues to lag in terms of capacities to
deal with the evolving challenges created by the Maoists.
According to the latest Bureau of Police Research and
Development (BPR&D) data, Bihar has 90.68 Police personnel
per 100,000 populations, as against a sanction of 119.17,
as on January 1, 2016, the worst ratio in the country,
and far below the national average of 137.11. The Police/Area
Ratio (number of policemen per 100 square kilometers)
is 99.61, as against the sanctioned strength of 130.92.
The State was found to be lagging in construction of fortified
Police Stations, with 40 out of the sanctioned 45 yet
to be constructed. By comparison, in neighbouring Jharkhand,
out of 73 sanctioned fortified Police Stations, only two
were yet to be completed; in Odisha, out of 52 sanctioned
fortified Police Stations, 18 remained to be constructed;
and in West Bengal, out of 17 fortified Police Stations,
just one was yet to be completed. Moreover, 36 of 1,064
Police Stations are without any wireless sets. These are
only a sampling of the enveloping deficits that afflict
Police capacities in the State.

Significantly,
on January 31, 2017, A.R.K. Kini, the Union Secretary
(Security) in the Cabinet Secretariat, expressed concern
over Bihar Police's failure to implement the Crime and
Criminal Tracking Network and System (CCTNS) project,
despite the Centre bearing the entire cost of the project.
The Centre has already provided INR 250 million out of
the total INR 680 million earmarked to the State for this
project.

The persistent
lack of political sagacity across successive regimes in
addressing these issues and deficits has bolstered the
Maoists in the State at a time when they are suffering
major reverses across most other theatres in the country.
The Maoists have demonstrated tremendous resilience in
very trying circumstances in the past, and the failure
to deal consistently and effectively with them will create
opportunities for their consolidation once again, giving
them a base in Bihar to engineer a recovery in other parts
of the country as well. There is, quite simply, no room
for a divergent State approach on this issue, at a time
when a nationally coordinated strategy appears to be making
significant gains.