Author: Taylor Fravel

I recently published an article in International Security on China's military strategy, entitled “Shifts in Warfare and Party Unity: Explaining China’s Changes in Military Strategy." The article contains three main points: China has adopted nine military strategies since 1949, or what the PLA calls “strategic guidelines.” The strategies adopted in 1956, 1980 and 1993 represented [...]

In response to the disengagement of Chinese and Indian forces announced on August 28th, I wrote a short essay for War on the Rocks. Specifically, I argue that it is misguided to view the disengagement is a "win" for India and a "loss" for China. Moreover, due to unique factors, Doklam does not provide a [...]

I wrote the following op-ed, "Danger at Dolam," for the Indian Express, on July 18, 2017 *** The standoff between Indian and Chinese forces on the Dolam Plateau is entering its fourth week. India and China have both miscalculated, with potentially dire consequences. China clearly did not appreciate the sensitivity that India attaches to any [...]

For the last several weeks, Indian and Chinese forces have confronted each other near the trijunction of the Indian, Chinese and Bhutanese borders. In the interview below, I answered some questions for the Indian website Rediff News about the origins of this episode and how it might be resolved. Read the interview here.

I wrote the following essay, "The Certainty of Uncertainty: U.S.-China Relations in 2017," for an ISSF Policy Roundtable on "U.S.-China Relations and the Trump Administration." Other contributors include Dingding Chen, Mira Rapp-Hooper, Essay by Joseph Siracusa, Toshi Yoshihara and Zhu Feng. *** The Certainty of Uncertainty: U.S.-China Relations in 2017 It is probably impossible to predict [...]

In a recently published edited volume, China's Evolving Military Strategy, I examine how Chinese thinking about military strategy is changing by comparing the 2013 edition of The Science of Military Strategy to the 2001 edition. I reach two general conclusions: The 2013 edition represents an evolution of China’s approach to thinking about military strategy. It does not [...]

In a recent article for a new journal, Global Summitry, I examine China’s behavior in the dispute with Japan over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands. Before 2010, China adopted a low-key approach to the dispute. After 2010, however, China chose to escalate the dispute, first in response to Japan’s detention of a Chinese fishing vessel in [...]

Yesterday, I joined the conversation at ChinaFile, following President Trump's phone call with Xi Jinping and Trump's commitment to the "one China" policy: In his phone call with Xi, Trump stated he agreed “to honor our ‘one China’ policy.” During the transition before his inauguration, Trump conducted an unprecedented phone call with Taiwan President Tsai [...]

I participated in a Task Force on U.S.-China Policy, whose report was published in February 2017. The group met over the past year and a half to develop broad-based recommendations for the relationship, from the starting point of how to best uphold U.S. interests. Read the Executive Summary and the Full Report.

For the Maritime Awareness Project, I wrote a short piece analyzing the location of China's seizure of an underwater unmanned vehicle, a drone. Most importantly, the drone was seized outsized the nine-dashed line depicted on Chinese maps and widely believed to represent China's maritime claims in the region. Read the piece here.