Muslim insurgency in the Philippines

Jolo man

Hope and worry in equal measure

IT SEEMED like unalloyed good news. On July 12th Abu Sayyaf, a band of armed Muslims who operate in the southern Philippines and have links to al-Qaeda, released Eugenio Vagni, a 62-year-old Italian, the last of three International Red Cross workers whom the group had kidnapped six months before. Government officials claimed he had been released because the security forces had put unbearable military pressure on the kidnappers. They demanded a final offensive to eradicate Abu Sayyaf.

But such demands have been heard many times. Suspicion has surfaced in the Philippine media that ransom was paid, as has happened before. Most worrying of all, other more dangerous groups may be moving into Abu Sayyaf's territory.

The group was founded by Filipinos who fought in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union and returned home to help in the military struggle for independence begun by their fellow-Muslims in the southern Philippines. The group soon turned to murderous banditry—in the past they have beheaded hostages—and the Philippine and American governments regard them as terrorists. The security forces made use of American training, equipment and intelligence as they chased Mr Vagni's captors around the hills and jungles of Jolo, an island in the south-west.

But what really worries the Americans is the lawlessness that allows Abu Sayyaf to endure. Areas where the security forces cannot or will not penetrate have become training grounds for other militant groups, notably Jemaah Islamiya, al-Qaeda's offshoot in South-East Asia. Several times during Mr Vagni's captivity, officials said Indonesians known to be members of Jemaah Islamiya were spotted among the kidnappers. Just before his release, southern cities suffered a fatal series of bombings that bore Jemaah Islamiya's hallmarks.

The Americans are encouraging the government and the main Muslim separatist group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, to talk peace. They hope that peace and order in the south will squeeze Jemaah Islamiya out. But until the security forces get around to mounting their final offensive against Abu Sayyaf, the areas where kidnappers are free to roam are likely to remain a base from which Jemaah Islamiya can strike.