About Currency Currents

With Currency Currents, you can stay tuned-in to our current global-macro view and our analysis of key investment themes driving currency prices.

We consistently focus on the key asset classes responsible for the flow of global capital -- including equities, fixed income, commodities and, of course, currencies.

Nothing is off limits to us in this free-wheeling look at the markets. Some days you’ll receive ramblings on trading psychology, while other days we may take an academic approach in explaining esoteric economic issues. Ultimately we have one goal in mind: to help you get a handle on the key investment themes driving global capital flow. Because if you know where the money is going, it increases the probability that your position in the market will be a profitable one.

Who is Jack the Pipper?

Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He has also
operated a discretionary money management firm specializing in global
stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients. In
addition, he was general partner in a firm specializing in currency
futures and commodities trading. Neither firm is now in operation.

Prior to entering the investment arena, Jack worked in various
corporate finance positions. He has written extensively on the subject
of global currencies and international economics.

Quotable – In the world maybe be flat, but your Socialist brain is concave category….

From New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman (a partial excerpt from the entry), complaining Sept. 9 about the difficulty of passing health-care and cap-and-trade bills, yearning for "one-party autocracy" — which "certainly has its drawbacks. But when it is led by a reasonably enlightened group of people, as China is today, it can also have great advantages. That one-party can just impose the politically difficult but critically important policies needed to move a society forward in the 21st Century."

[Editor Note: It worked so well in Russia and China that they only ended killing about 100 million, conservatively, of their own people. And this tripe passes for the thinking of the “enlightened elite”? Truly sad indeed, and yet another example of why the ends justify the means for socialists of all stripes. Scary!]

FX Trading – Growth and inflation? Key to our 10 reasons the dollar has bottomed
Today’s US price data a bit hotter than expected this morning. China boom numbers out last night. And guess what, the dollar likes what it sees. Is a growth surprise in the air? It would change the dynamics for the dollar and is a key part of any story that suggests the dollar has bottomed. Did I say bottomed? Well, yes I did, thanks for asking….

Here are our 10-reasons why the buck has bottomed…try to read these with a straight face. If you can’t, then maybe we are on to something.

Credit Crunch Sea Change

– US Savings going up; debt sentiment changed

Risk Bid Trigger Again…initially

– Greece and Dubai

Growth – Not as bad as expected; it’s all relative

– Non-farm payroll and Mr. US Consumer

Carry trade idea history

– Fed hikes before BOJ and before ECB

US Assets are very cheap

– Foreign Direct Investment Flow (currency cycles play that role)

Sentiment – Newsletter writers are in apoplectic territory

– Everyone hates it and one-way bet

Correlation – it has changed

– No new low with gold blow off and stock high

Technical

– Broke its weekly down trend & extremely oversold

Euro craters as a currency

– Rush to dollar-the world reserve currency punctuated

Bill Gross isn’t always right; neither is Jim Rogers*

*Note: Late yesterday, David Newman told me to flip on CNBC—Jim Rogers was pontificating. So, I tuned in to listen to another slamming of the buck, more profusion of love for China. Well, I got the China love, but surprise, surprise, surprise, Jim said the dollar can actually go up for a while. Shocked? Indeed. So, maybe Jim is right all the time.