Warsaw wants to BFF Cameron

WARSAW — David Cameron’s visit to Warsaw on Friday is about more than the British prime minister hunting for support ahead of a Brexit referendum. It’s also a way for Poland to show it still matters in the EU.

“The fact that Cameron is coming to Poland is proof that Poland is an important member of the EU,” said Prime Minister Beata Szydło.

Szydło and her Law and Justice party government are working hard to make the case that Poland hasn’t faded into insignificance in the EU because of her government’s controversial early steps.

Although the party is often painted as Euroskeptic, Law and Justice has no desire to quit the EU, unlike populist movements in the U.K. and France.

What it wants is reduced German influence — party founder and leader Jarosław Kaczyński has long been suspicious of German power in Europe, a view colored by his parents’ wartime experiences — and an EU based on sovereign nation states that won’t interfere in Poland’s internal politics while still providing the financial and security protection Poland needs.

Witold Waszczykowski, the foreign minister, laid out that approach in a recent speech to parliament. He stressed that “we are members of the European Union and our security and well-being depends directly on its condition.”

Waszczykowski then proceeded to paint a stark picture of an EU riven by crises, from the survival of the eurozone to the bloc’s inability to police its borders and stem a rush of migrants, to the need to deter Russian aggression.

A new view of the EU

The answer isn’t any sort of “ever closer union” in the EU, he said. Instead, Poland is much closer to the views of the U.K. on the need to see the bloc as a “union of free nations and equal countries.”

Poland’s new chief diplomat gave the nod to the U.K. as Poland’s most important EU partner. But relations with Germany, while friendly, will no longer be marked by “superficial accommodation.”

“It’s a good opportunity for a bit of stock-taking,” Waszczykowski said.

Poland finds itself on the sidelines of many crucial EU issues, from migration to pollution.

That’s a shift from the policies of the previous, Civic Platform government headed by Donald Tusk, now president of the European Council. The priority then was to become an indispensable partner for Germany and to make Warsaw a powerful player in the EU. Tusk even promised in 2008 that Poland would be in the euro by 2012, a pledge that fell by the wayside in the wake of the global economic crisis.

Radek Sikorski, a former foreign minister, gave a speech in Berlin in 2011 urging Germany to take up its role as a European leader. “I will probably be the first Polish foreign minister in history to say so, but here it is: I fear German power less than I am beginning to fear German inactivity,” he said.

The new government is much lonelier.

Poland finds itself on the sidelines of many crucial EU issues, from migration to pollution. The new government’s domestic policies have set off a crisis over changes to the top constitutional court, politicized the civil service and brought public media under government control, leading to street protests and rising concern from EU bodies.

The fuss over Poland has died down in recent days, as EU authorities reassess whether a January decision to launch an unprecedented probe into its new laws was warranted. New steps, like this week’s decision to bring the prosecutor’s office under the control of powerful Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro, didn’t ruffle any feathers in Brussels. Neither did President Andrezj Duda signing a new law Thursday that increases the power of police agencies to snoop on citizens.

“The worst is behind us,” Szydło said in an interview with the wSieci magazine. “No matter how much the opposition tries to interfere, whether inside the country or outside, they will not break us. We will survive and we will carry out the changes that are vital for Poland.”

Fighting to stay relevant

Although outrage over the new government is dying down, Poland is still under scrutiny and there is a strong sense that its position in the EU is weaker than it was a year or two ago. Polish diplomats have noticed the change in atmosphere around their country.

“Poland has surprised everybody here,” said a Polish diplomat in Brussels. “Polish officials had long been campaigning for common interests, we are now in a confrontational position. We confront our policies, we confront our statements.”

Although he admitted that Warsaw is “louder” than under the previous government, Konrad Szymański, the Europe minister, told POLITICO that “Poland is not isolated.”

He charged that there’s a double standard in Brussels and Western Europe, which accepts France’s move to increase law enforcement powers at the cost of civil liberties in the wake of last year’s terrorist attacks, but denounces decisions taken by governments in Hungary and Poland.

But on many of the core issues for the EU, Poland finds itself in direct opposition to Western European nations.

That includes the EU’s ambitious policy on climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as well as opposing the expansion of the Nord Stream pipeline running under the Baltic from Russia to Germany, a project backed by German companies and not opposed by Berlin.

“The symmetry of interests with Germany isn’t as close as Civic Platform had thought,” said Szymański.

Poland plans to make London its key EU ally, and to cement links with other Central European countries, especially the Visegrád Group.

The new government is also unenthusiastic about the EU’s plan to relocate asylum-seekers throughout the bloc. Warsaw agreed to resettle about 7,000 but is vociferously opposed to large-scale migration to the EU. Poland, along with Hungary, Slovakia and others, is especially worried that migrants will dilute Europe’s traditional culture and religion.

“The countries of Central Europe are those that didn’t experience post-war migration, which is why they have reacted so strongly to the West European experience. This part of Europe says ‘We like the West, but we don’t like that part,’” said Szymański. “This region rejects the multicultural paradigm.”

That leaves Warsaw scrambling to find new friends.

Waszczykowski laid out the strategy in his speech to parliament. Poland plans to make London its key EU ally, and to cement links with other Central European countries, especially the Visegrád Group that also includes Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

There is even a call to build a bloc of countries from the Baltic to the Adriatic that harks back to a period of Poland’s medieval glory when its ruling dynasty controlled most of Central Europe.

The changes in Warsaw’s foreign policy mean Cameron will have a solid negotiating position when he meets with Szydło and then with Kaczyński. Poland has raised misgivings over giving the U.K. a “brake” on benefits for EU migrants working in the country, a crucial condition for Cameron ahead of a referendum on staying in the EU.

That’s a recognition of the million or so Poles who live in the U.K., a group the Polish government cannot ignore. But Poland also needs allies in the EU, which will make it difficult for Szydło to lead the opposition to the concessions Cameron wants.

“This is an important objective for the Poles, to have a powerful non-eurozone ally, to dilute German influence and to strengthen the national sovereignty of the EU’s member states,” said Mujtaba Rachman of Eurasia Group, an analysis firm. “This will make it more difficult for Waszczykowski to continue driving a hard bargain.”

Veritas-Semper

Mr. Cienski (or rather, Czerski?) is no longer sure of the shifting sands he stands on and his pieces are becoming conflicted. With his Gazeta Wyborcza friends suffering from weak media sales, he is no longer assured of his economic future. So, he attempts to play to 2 masters, and really exposes himself for the propagandist that he is. He can’t help himself as the twisted logic he spins trips him up, royally.

What he desperately attempts not to state is that Poland – under the new conservative (read: patriotic) government – is finally getting off its knees. It no longer is willing to unquestionably follow German interests, but is specifically marking course to follow its own interests. The new course – so annoying to the Brussels-Berlin axis – includes staying within the EU and forming new alliances which promote its fundamental, long-term growth and security interests.

It so happens that a close relationship with Britain plays a key role since both countries – both under conservative governments – have a lot in common. The most fundamental interest is the nature of the EU, itself. Both countries want the EU to get back to its roots as the union of sovereign countries. As such, this common goal is naturally forging closer ties.

Even if Britain chooses not to remain in the EU, both countries will most likely continue to grow their ties because both have unique fundamental values based on their unique experiences with democracy, both going back centuries. Something very, very fundamental that other EU members cannot claim.

And yes, Poland is ready to play the role of a regional leader. Not only because of its glorious past as the most powerful country in Central Europe, but because there is a need for like-minded leadership in this part of Europe. Germany – as the “liberal hegemon” – is certainly not the country that this region wants or is willing to follow. Especially with the migrant crisis looming over the EU. A crisis which has become existential in nature through the irresponsible actions of Germany. That is why the Visegrad group has become a natural bloc which will only continue to grow in its influence of EU policies. Already, this group is being augmented by the other EU members stretching from the Baltic to the Adriatic to the Black Sea with Poland as the natural leader.

Poland’s Prime Minister Szydlo gave a resounding statement of Poland’s position at the European Parliament and now the Euro-Commissars have started to back off their aggressive posture.

If the “EU Project” is to survive, it will have to get back to its roots with the support of its key members. And, Poland is willing and able to provide leadership in that direction. Germany will just have to get used to the fact that Poland has finally found its voice.

Posted on 2/5/16 | 10:02 AM CEST

emil

the only problem here is not rule of law in poland, but a new threat to the interests of Germany and old MS, i.e. the European Commission that takes the orders from the biggest and the oldest MS. The Eastern new MS have finally realised that the EU is here only to protect some MS but not all, that the EU enlargement is there to find new markets for the old MS and that’s it. The wish of Eastern Europe to be equal to Germany, France or the Netherlands is getting stronger, but it is dangerous for the setting that teh Commission and Germany have created and so vigorously defend. Just look at the changes that Lisbon Treaty has brought: the four MS (DE, ES, FR, IT) have 54 % of votes, and the rest of 22 MS have nothing. is this called equality when somebody else always decides for you, and of course not in your own interests?! NO. Bravo, Poland.

Posted on 2/5/16 | 11:32 AM CEST

maciekimaciek

Veritas_Semper

I agree 100%.

I will only explain to all the readers, that Mr Cienski was called Czerski by Veritas-Semper, because the left-wing daily Gazeta Wyborcza HQ in Warsaw is located at Czerska street, and Mr Cienki’s opinions presented here are very much in line with this opposition daily opinions.

Posted on 2/5/16 | 4:44 PM CEST

zoe

Who is isolated? Merkel and Germany! We never will leave Poland alone! Kiss from Budapest:)))

Posted on 2/5/16 | 5:11 PM CEST

maciekimaciek

Poland is not at all isolated in Europe.
Do not mistake Europe with Germany, or some liberal individuals in a couple of European countries.

To the contrary, Poland’s opinions on the most important European problems is gaining growing support not only from Central European countries, but recently from GB or Denmark.
Growing numbers of citizens in all European countries say NO to German hegemony in Europe, which brings new economic (Euro currency), social (migrants) and political (media freedom) problems to their countries.

P.S. A hug to Zoe, from Poznan.

Posted on 2/5/16 | 6:14 PM CEST

Tad

It is always curious that all the comments here are made by poeple who side very strongly with the today’s governmet policies. It is also amusiung how Mr Veritas with such certainty states that Mr Cienski is working for or with Michnik. And that he is somehow financially dependend on Gazeta Wyborcza.
I would like to add, that many observe to their horror the process of dissmantling Poland as a valid, democratic and European country.