Advisory Tutorials

This has been a challenging season in many regards. Unfortunately, Taos Avalanche Center is shutting down. Thanks to all those that have supported and believed in providing avalanche education and awareness. Stay safe out in the mountains and if you ever want to talk about conditions feel free to contact me at andy@taosavalanchecenter.org or call me at 781-572-5631.

THIS AVALANCHE ADVISORY EXPIRED ON January 18, 2018 @ 5:29 amAvalanche Advisory published on January 17, 2018 @ 5:29 am

Issued by
Andy Bond - Taos Avalanche Center

Bottom Line

The avalanche danger remains LOW. Triggering an avalanche remains unlikely. Watch for areas of unstable snow that can be found on higher elevation north aspects where you find a poor snowpack structure of slab/weak layer combinations. Evaluate the terrain and snowpack while traveling in the backcountry to identify where these isolated areas of unstable snow may still exist.

Though generally safe avalanche conditions exist, watch for unstable snow on isolated steep slopes above treeline on north to east aspects, including cross-loaded gullies, concave bowls, and beneath ridgelines. These are the places holding the most snow right now from winds depositing snow from early season snow storms. The snowpack in these areas has a poor snowpack structure, basically strong over weak where we have slabs resting over weak sugary faceted snow. Any instability that could be encountered today will be found in these places. Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks, collapses, or whumphing sounds as these are indications that you've found persistent slab instability.

advisory discussion

Any avalanche danger today is manageable and focused on higher elevation north to east aspects where you find a deeper snowpack. These pockets are obvious and contain the old and new snow. It's in these places that we are typically finding poor snowpack structure of slabs over weak sugary depth hoar. Even though triggering an avalanche today is unlikely, it doesn't mean it's impossible. Any avalanchetriggered would be small, but has the potential to step down into older layers near the ground creating a potentially larger more destructive avalanche with all our ground hazards. Slopes near treeline and below are in need of more snow before they can be of concern.

There's not a whole lot of confidence with this weekend storm as right now we have a lot of factors working against us for any major snowfall amounts. Hopefully we'll get something that enables to finally turn the corner here in the middle of January! If you find yourself leaving town, be sure to check out backcountry conditions on Avalanche.org

North aspects above treeline, in places where new snow sits on top of previously wind loaded slopes, are the the slopes with the deepest snowpack, and also the ones with the most instability. The snowpack in these places is highly variable, though they share the common theme of having a very poor structure. Here's a look at a couple of different slab/weak layer combinations found on these types of slopes in the last few days:

Plenty of sunshine today with warmer temperatures and calm winds. We have a pretty good inversion with temperatures in towns in the single digits and mid mountain temperatures already in the 20's. Warm temperatures and lots of sunshine will be with us for the next couple of days. There is some hope out there with a low pressure system moving in over the weekend. Right now it looks like light snowfall, cold temperatures and lots of wind with the quick hitting storm Saturday night.

Weather observations from the Wheeler Peak Wilderness between 9000 ft. and 13000 ft.

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the Albuquerque NWS

For 9000 ft. to 10000 ft.

Wednesday

Wednesday Night

Thursday

Weather:

Mostly Sunny

Mostly Clear

Mostly Clear

Temperatures:

39 deg. F.

15=20 deg. F.

41-46 deg. F.

Wind Direction:

N

NW

W

Wind Speed:

5-10

Up to 5

5-10

Expected snowfall:

0 in.

0 in.

0 in.

For 11000 ft. to 13000 ft.

Wednesday

Wednesday Night

Thursday

Weather:

Sunny

Mostly Clear

Sunny

Temperatures:

26=33 deg. F.

16 deg. F.

33-38 deg. F.

Wind Direction:

N

N

NW

Wind Speed:

5-10

5

5-10

Expected snowfall:

0 in.

0 in.

0 in.

Disclaimer

This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries, Click here for a map of the area.This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the Taos Avalanche Center who is solely responsible for its content.