Frequently asked questions

18.03.2015

NBT undertakes all dependent measures for stabilisation of situation in the currency market

Answers to questions of the correspondent of news agency "Asia-plus"quot;

- What is the volume and structure of gold and currency reserves of the National Bank of Tajikistan at present?
- At present as of the end of February of current year the structure of gold and currency reserves makes: the general reserves – TJS 2888,6 million, including, gold reserves – TJS 2020,0 million, other assets – TJS 868,6 million. - What is profitableness of these reserves?
- Profitableness on the given assets, following the results of 2014, taking into account international standards requirements to liquidity and no risk criterion by kinds of placement of reserves makes from 0,1 to 0,8 annual interest rates. - Why NBT does not publish all these data as the Central banks of other countries do, for example, Russia and Kyrgyzstan?
- All these data are published on a website of the National bank of Tajikistan in the link: http://www.nbt.tj/in section “Statistics / Banking statistical bulletin”. In the given column the Table №6 is completely devoted on reflexion not only volume of gold and currency reserves, but also other most important bank indicators, such, as internal assets and money base. Furthermore, in addition to placing of detailed information on a site, NBT directs the given statistical bulletin to all ministries and departments, local hukumats, banking establishments, various educational institutions and other concerned parties. - For which purposes gold and currency reserves in volume of approximately $800 million have been spent last year? The point is that in the beginning of 2014 the NBT Chairman has informed on availability of these reserves in volume in 1,2 billion, and in July, 2014 you have informed, that gold and stocks make $755 million. In the beginning of this year Abdujabbor Shirinov has told to journalists, that the volume of such reserves makes TJS 2 billion 550,9 million (about $482 million according to official rate of the mid-January of this year).
- In 2014 in sphere of the balance of payments statistics and investment position where also data on reserves included in, according to corresponding RT government order, the country has moved to the Special Data Dissemination Standards. The given standard, developed and presented by the International Monetary Fund in development of the previous General Data Dissemination Standard proposes new classification of assets, both on foreign exchange assets, and on gold reserves. So, for example, under the given standards from the list of foreign currencies are excluded those, that do not enter into SDR basket or to gold reserves are admitted exclusively monetary gold. Thus the majority of bought gold reserves from domestic market is not monetary which require implementation of certain procedures before acquisition of monetary gold status. Therefore this difference is not spent, as you are stating, and reclassified in the general foreign assets. If to calculate for accounting date under the previous standards then reserves for 2014 would make USD 1,25 billion, i.e. would increase on more than by USD 51 million. - What is the average price of gold which НБТ has purchased last year?
- The average price of the purchased gold for 2014 makes USD 1257. - Is it true, that according to the international criteria, NBT reserves stand on a low level on which it is provided in the figures resulted in article «Reserves of National Bank of Tajikistan cause fears» ("Asia-plus", №18 as of March 5, 2015)?
- Yes, this point is true, however, for their comparison with Kyrgyzstan it is necessary to take into consideration also following moments: first, by 2000 Kyrgyzstan already had volume of the international reserves exceeding 4,8 months of import, and by 2007 surpassed USD 1,1 billion, while in our country due to known historical circumstances only since 2000 we have begun comprehensive rehabilitation and development of our economy.
Secondly, the trade balance of Kyrgyzstan (i.e. a difference between volume of import of the goods and services in the country and volume of export of goods and services from the country) develops essentially better, than the given indicator in our country. On this account in our neighbouring country the most part of obligations on import payment is carried out at the expense of proceeds of foreign currency from export, rather than assistance or help of National Bank as it occurs in our country. So, following the results of 2014 just for stabilisation and stability of the balance of payments more than USD 811 million had been allocated by the National Bank of Tajikistan.
Thirdly, the international reserves inherently are exogenous macroeconomic indicator which develops upon the results of long-term performance of all economy with gradual change rate. For example, in such countries with familiar to our country conditions, like Armenia or Moldova, the stability question of the balance of payments is also long-term where annual increase rates makes in average to 9-10 percent. - How this reserve rate will affect TJS maintenance course, considering, that NBT regularly performs currency interventions?
- In the long-term period if the given level of reserves and external pressure upon the rate of exchange remains, it can entail negative consequences for the exchange rate. But NBT is not idle and undertakes all dependent measures for situation stabilisation in the currency market, taking into account that all present situation has short-term effect.
As you know, NBT only with a view of leveling of excessive rate change uses the currency interventions tool which, by the way, is effective with reference to our economy. Moreover, for these purposes at present NBT uses banking operations which uses not international reserves, but means arriving from these operations. - Whether NBT expects decrease in volumes of remittances, and also arrivals of investments into Tajikistan current year? Whether deficiency of the balance of payments for 2015 is predicted?
- Really, according to available data and in connection with change of the general tendencies decrease in remittances is expected, however, attraction of investments has a forward trend. Thus the balance of payments is predicted with the deficiency which estimated size will be calculated after making up of the balance of payments for 2014. - Whether it is possible to get the balance of payments with data for 2014?
- Results of the balance of payments will be ready to the publication taking into account requirements of above-stated SDDS by April.

1. What is the reason of rate downswing of national currency of Tajikistan in relation to US dollar which is observed almost daily? - At present in the most world financial markets the excessive rate fluctuation of a foreign currency is observed. Exchange rates by their nature are very sensitive, and are not only under the influence of macroeconomic, but also under many other factors which influence a currency supply and demand in the markets. Changes which happen in region, also directly influence on demand on a foreign exchange in the domestic market. There are objectively long-term factors inherent in economy and financial market of our country which seasonally increase demand and reduce the foreign currency supply, including cash currency. The negative balance of trading balance (USD 2,7 bln.) appertains to given factors which has led to minus balance of volumes of inflow and outflow of a foreign currency and its deficiency, decrease in volume of remittances of physical persons, and especially its dollar part, seasonal increase in demand at USD cash and decrease of its supply, decrease in receipt of export currency gain etc. This year the situation was aggravated under the influence of the universal strengthening tendency of USD to other national currencies. It is connected with a geopolitical aggravation of a situation in the world, in the Middle East, in Ukraine and in Russia, and also by change of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System with the view of support of a financial system of America. 2. What does National bank of Tajikistan do for prevention of the further decrease of TJS rate? - The National Bank of Tajikistan along with application of measures of a monetary policy also constantly is present in the currency market, provides its liquidity and stability. Thus, from the beginning of year the National Bank of Tajikistan performed regular sale of currency in the domestic market. These measures allow to level supply and demand of a foreign currency and provide stability of the market and a rate accordingly. 3. Is the National Bank of Tajikistan intended to perform new intervene in the foreign-exchange market, and whether it has necessary means for it? - The National Bank of Tajikistan will perform as required operations in the domestic market for smoothing of excessive rate fluctuations and demand for a foreign currency, thereby providing stability and liquidity of the market. For this purpose there are all mechanisms and necessary means. 4. What gold and exchange currency reserves the National Bank of Tajikistan has? - The NBT gold and exchange currency reserves grow and have steady growth dynamics. Annual rate of its growth on the average with the view of last changes makes 10-12 percent. As of November, 14th of current year the NBT general gold and exchange currency reserves have made USD 1,2 bln., increasing monthly in average on USD 27-35 mln. 5. Under forecasts, according to the Law of the Republic of Tajikistan “On the State budget for 2014” the dollar exchange rate should not exceed TJS 5 for a USD. How can you comment on it? - First of all, it is necessary to notice that in the Law of the Republic of Tajikistan “On the State budget for 2014” USD exchange rate is used only as a settlement rate for the forecast of the basic indicators. Thus, in process of realisation of the given Law which is made one year ahead, a rate of foreign exchange (in this case US Dollar) consists of market conditions in the current period. So it is possible to point out, that in the past there were periods when the current rate developed as lower so higher of a settlement rate.

Press-service NBT

23.06.2008

How decisions on the change of the refinancing rate are made?

The
refinancing rate (official interest rate) is one of the instruments of
the monetary policy implementation. The official interest rate implies
the minimum interest rate on which the National (central) Bank lends to
the banks of the second level.

The
decision on the change of the refinancing rate shall be accepted by the
Board of the National Bank of Tajikistan based on the suggestions of
the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Tajikistan. The
objective of the Committee’s activity is the coordination of the
monetary and fiscal policy implementation for the efficient management
of the short-term liquidity. The refinancing rate thus, plays an anchor
role for the loan policy of banks and influences interest rates under
deposits and credits in the money market.

An
increasing of refinancing rate means tightening in the monetary policy
and, as a rule, it is used to restrain monetary aggregates growth.
Decreasing of refinancing rate stimulates credit activity of the banks,
that promotes the money growth.

06.05.2008

Will a market exchange rate be defined by the NBT or by market laws? If nevertheless the NBT regulates the exchange rate in the market, is it possible to consider that we follow the floating exchange rate principle?

At present in the country it is applied the regime of «adjustable floating rate without determination of its fluctuation marks». This regime assumes to set the exchange rate of currencies, exclusively on the basis of supply and demand parity in the market, testifying that exclusively market principle of its formation is used.
At the same time, the official exchange rate of Somoni to US dollar shall be defined daily on the basis of average value of average exchange rates of buying-selling transactions effected (between banks) in the inter-banking and in the intra-banking segments (between banks and their customers) of exchange market.
The National Bank of Tajikistan has the right to perform respective operations in the market (currency buying/selling) exclusively when current exchange rate is subjected to excessively sharp fluctuations.