Cruz feeling confident about Wisconsin primary

1of5Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican from Texas and 2016 presidential candidate, looks over a case of fresh sausage during a stop at Glorioso's Italian Market in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S., on Monday, April 4, 2016. "Whether we defeat Donald Trump before the convention or at it, I'm energized to have the support of the vast majority of North Dakota delegates," said Cruz, who spoke at the state's convention on Saturday. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg *** Local Caption *** Ted CruzPhoto: Daniel Acker, Stringer / Bloomberg

2of5Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, A Republican presidential hopeful, speaks to reporters at Glorioso's Italian Market during a campaign stop with his wife, Heidi, and daughter Caroline in Milwaukee, Wis., April 4, 2016. The state holds its presidential primaries on Tuesday. (Joshua Lott/The New York Times)Photo: JOSHUA LOTT, STR / NYT

3of5Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, a Republican presidential hopeful, greets customers as his wife, Heidi, looks on during a campaign stop at the Mars Cheese Castle in Kenosha, Wis., April 4, 2016. The state holds its presidential primaries on Tuesday. (Eric Thayer/The New York Times)Photo: ERIC THAYER, STR / NYT

4of5Donald Trump, a Republican presidential candidate, and his wife, Melania, speaks at a campaign event in Milwaukee, April 4, 2016. (Eric Thayer/The New York Times)Photo: ERIC THAYER, STR / NYT

5of5Donald Trump and his wife, Melania, campaign in Milwaukee. Wisconsin’s primary is today, with 42 GOP delegates in play.Photo: Eric Thayer /New York Times

WASHINGTON — Riding a wave of momentum into a Wisconsin primary today that could trip up Donald Trump’s march to the GOP nomination, a confident Ted Cruz is looking ahead at the mechanics of a contested election.

On Monday, the U.S. senator from Texas said he likes what he sees.

“If we get to a contested convention, I believe we’ll be in a very, very strong position to earn a majority of the delegates,” Cruz said in Madison. “The choice will be between me and Donald Trump, and I believe we will win that election if there is a contested election.”

Cruz’s remarks reflect a week of Trump missteps that have seen the New York billionaire slip in the polls, exposing potential cracks in his coat of celebrity invulnerability.

Trump remains the only hopeful with a realistic chance of clinching the Republican nomination ahead of the national convention in July, but a big win by Cruz in Wisconsin would significantly narrow the businessman’s path.

Looking to win the lion’s share of the state’s 42 Republican delegates, Cruz also sought to foreclose on Trump’s suggestion that he should win the nomination with the largest number of delegates, rather than the 1,237 majority required under current rules.

“He doesn’t want the standard to be who can win a majority, because he can’t earn a majority,” Cruz said.

Though Trump has won a majority of the Republican primaries so far, Cruz said the real estate mogul has generally faced a vote “ceiling” of 35 to 40 percent of voters in what was until recently a crowded field.

A loss to Cruz in Wisconsin could knock Trump off the pace he needs to win a majority of the delegates before the convention, possibly leading to an open convention in Cleveland, where Cruz — likely still behind in the delegate count — believes that he would have the organizational muscle to win.

But Trump, campaigning in Wisconsin on Monday, sounded an optimistic tone, reminding voters of the many past predictions of his demise.

“You know how many times I’ve been given the end?” he said in Superior. “I’ve been given the last rites, how many times? Like 10? Every week, it’s the end of Trump.”

Going into Wisconsin, where Cruz and Trump held a series of dueling rallies Monday, the reality TV star has built up a lead with about 736 delegates, compared with 463 for Cruz and 143 for Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

Your browser does not support the iframe HTML tag.
Try viewing this in a modern browser like Chrome, Safari, Firefox or Internet Explorer 9 or later.

Kasich, seeing better prospects in the East, spent the day campaigning in New York, which holds the next primary, April 19. Trump, looking for a rebound, brought in Sarah Palin to stump for him in Wisconsin over the weekend and crisscrossed the state himself Monday, scheduling rallies in Superior, La Crosse and Milwaukee.

Cruz also went full-bore in the Badger State, scheduling four major campaign events, including a town hall with Gov. Scott Walker moderated by Fox News’ Megyn Kelly.

Cruz has benefited from the backing of Walker and many of the state’s top conservative talk radio hosts. Trump, taking shots from all directions, fired back in La Crosse on Monday with a personal shot at Cruz and Walker, whom he called “average.”

Cruz has proven more adept at using his superior ground game to navigate the arcane rules of local and state party elections to scavenge extra delegates and loyalists even in states he lost.

One example came over the weekend in North Dakota, where a state GOP gathering nominated 28 technically unbound delegates, 18 of which the Cruz campaign considers loyal to him.

In Louisiana, where Cruz narrowly lost to Trump, the Texan was able to win a majority of the delegates by wooing some who had been bound to Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who dropped out.

Trump has threatened to sue the party over the result, possibly a sign of a litigious turn in the primary race as the two camps duel over complicated party rules in the run-up to a contested convention.

Another likely point of contention: the insistence by both Cruz and Trump that under current rules Kasich could not even be on the ballot at the convention unless he wins at least eight states. So far, he has won only his home state of Ohio.

Amid the intensifying head-to-head rivalry, with Kasich mathematically out, Cruz and Trump both issued similar warnings against a brokered convention that might give the nomination to a unity candidate presumably chosen by party leaders from outside the primary field.

The name most often mentioned: U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, who has disavowed any interest. Without naming names, Cruz echoed Trump’s controversial warnings about the potential for riots.

“This fevered pipe dream of Washington that at the convention they will parachute in some white knight who will save the Washington establishment — it is nothing less than a pipe dream,” Cruz said. “It ain’t gonna happen. If it did, the people would quite rightly revolt.”

Whatever the reaction of Cruz and Trump delegates if one of them is not the GOP nominee, Cruz said it would spell electoral defeat in November.

“Under what universe do 1,000 Trump delegates or 1,000 Cruz delegates go vote for some uber-Washington lobbyist who hasn’t been on the ballot?” Cruz said.

In Wisconsin, Cruz carries a significant lead in the polls, overcoming a big Trump lead as recently as just a month ago. Cruz also has become the rallying point for a well-funded “NeverTrump” movement of party insiders who fear that Trump’s outlandish style could lead to GOP electoral disaster in national and local elections in the fall.

Those fears intensified in the past week as Trump faced a torrent of criticism for controversial statements he made about nuclear weapons, penalizing women who have abortions and defending a campaign manager charged with manhandling a female reporter, along with tweeting an unflattering photo of Cruz’s wife along with an image of Trump’s wife, a former model.

Trump has since acknowledged that the tweet was a mistake he wouldn’t repeat. He also bought radio time in recent days to counter what he calls “misinformation” about him in a slew of attack ads by anti-Trump super PACs, including one for the influential Club for Growth.

The negative backlash — and Trump’s rare backpedaling — has given Cruz and his supporters the sense that Wisconsin could signal a turnaround in Trump’s fortunes.