Trump Naysayers: How Wrong They Were

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When Donald J. Trump announced his candidacy on June 16, 2015, some Democratic leaders seemed delighted, seizing the moment to mock the seriousness of the rival party.CreditEric Thayer for The New York Times

“The chance of his winning nomination and election is exactly zero”

James Fallows, a correspondent for The Atlantic, wrote last July that Mr. Trump faced several obstacles that simply could not be overcome.

He is a novelty candidate akin to Herman Cain or Michele Bachmann, Mr. Fallows explained. He has no experience in appointed or elected office or the military. And his derisive remarks about Mexicans would not bear scrutiny.

“Everyone knows, for certain, that he will fade as the novelty of his histrionic act gets old and as Republican voters begin to think about actually winning,” he wrote.

“Trump is absolutely a joke”

Bob Garfield, the writer and host of the WNYC radio program “On the Media,” took issue in July with how news organizations were reporting early polls, deemed by him to be unreliable, that seemed to show strong support for Mr. Trump.

The candidate, he said, was akin to “the kid in geometry class making fart sounds in his armpit. What’s not a joke is how the press reported those poll numbers — and most others.”

“Trump’s campaign will fail by one means or another”

That was Nate Silver in August. The prediction expert and editor of FiveThirtyEight.com pegged Mr. Trump’s odds then, informally, at 2 percent.

Writing on the day of the first Republican face-off, Mr. Silver said, “Tonight’s debate could prove to be the beginning of the end for Trump, or he could remain a factor for months to come. But he’s almost certainly doomed, sooner or later.”

“There is no way on God’s green earth”

It’s not enough to be a showman, reasoned the authors, Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley.

“Party leaders believe the initials of the G.O.P. will be changed to R.I.P. if Trump is on the November 2016 ballot, and this near-unanimity of leadership opinion should be enough to defeat Trump one way or the other,” they wrote.

“Donald Trump is not going to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2016”

“But just because Trump isn’t going to win (or even come close) doesn’t mean that his rise — and the massive amount of attention he continues to attract — is meaningless. It’s not. The question, however, is what exactly Trump’s, gulp, popularity means.” He backtracked a month later, as many eventually did.

“We are past peak Trump”

The last straw, he said, came when Mr. Trump belittled Senator John McCain’s war record. “He’s not a war hero,” the candidate had declared. “He’s a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured.”

During an appearance on MSNBC in July, Mr. Kristol said, “He’ll stay in the debates. He’ll be showman. He will get out before Iowa.”

“His Support Will Erode”

His surge had so far been a largely media-driven phenomenon, Mr. Cohn reasoned. His attack against Mr. McCain would trigger a shift in scrutiny to the candidate’s record. And that would be it. “Even a cursory look at Mr. Trump’s political record reveals a candidate with serious liabilities once journalists and campaigns started taking him seriously.”