The Tuareg rebels on April 6 declared
their independence from Mali and announced the formation of the state
of Azawad. That action was condemned or ignored by the international
community.

In a thoughtful article, William Moseley, a professor of geography and African studies at Macalester College, puts
Azawad in the context of the larger issue of Africa's colonial borders.
He recalls the arbitrary nature of Africa's borders, most of which were
inherited from the colonial period, especially from the 1884-85 Berlin
conference. He also recalls the relationship between the Tuareg people
and the Mali government, which he characterizes as "uneasy." But, he
notes, Azawad was created by force, and that it remains unclear whether
it has the widespread support of the inhabitants living within its
territory. Then there is the question of what the boundaries of the new
state might be. And this political drama is being played out against the
backdrop of anticipated famine.

Moseley urges dialogue among the Mali government, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad
(MNLA - the 'government' of Azawad), and the international community.
He suggests that many in the south of Mali may not see the north as
worth a war. Should Azawad continue to insist on independence, he
suggests that it be countered with force only if the MNLA refuses to
follow a democratic process in building the new state.

Moseley is right in urging dialogue. But, for now, the Tuareg rebels
seem to have most of the cards. They are well-armed and they defeated
the earlier efforts of Mali's government to defeat them, thereby leading
to a military coup in Bamako. The restored, constitutional government
of Mali is still finding its feet and faces elections. It is hard to
imagine a regional force could defeat the Tuaregs in an extraordinarily
difficult fighting environment that bridges the Sahel and the Sahara. If
it can hold the support or acquiescence of most of the population in
the Azawad territory, MNLA is likely to be able to stay in power despite
the opposition of the African Union or the Economic Community of West
African States.

But, the elephant in the living room may be the Sahelian drought. UN
agencies and humanitarian organizations are continuing to try to
energize the international community to respond to what could be a major
tragedy. With respect to Azawad, famine could cut many ways. The MNLA
might be unable to feed its people, eroding support for Azawad. On the
other hand, the ECOWAS states are likely to be distracted from concerted
action on Azawad as they attempt to organize famine relief for their
own people.

This article originally appeared at CFR.org, an Atlantic partner site.

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