*UPDATE V* On Shaky Ground

UPDATE V (6/18/12, 11:57am ET): The National Research Council, part of the prestigious National Academies, delivered yet another nail in the coffin to the idea that hydraulic fracturing poses a serious risk of causing earthquakes. Late last week, the NRC issued a report that concluded “hydraulic fracturing a well as presently implemented for shale gas recovery does not pose a high risk for inducing felt seismic events.” Instead, the researchers found — like the USGS did a few months ago — that injection wells were more commonly the culprit for induced seismicity (as well as underground carbon capture and storage, or CCS). The other good news is that “only a very small fraction of injection and extraction activities among the hundreds of thousands of energy development sites in the United States have induced seismicity at levels noticeable to the public,” according to the NRC.

UPDATE IV (4/23/12, 9:25am ET): The lead author of the USGS report is now directly addressing incorrect media characterizations of the report (like this one, for example), which have all-too-often leaped to the conclusion that the earthquakes observed were linked to hydraulic fracturing. E&E News has a great story (subs. req’d) explaining that frustration, partially excerpted below:

Here are the facts: ‘Fracking’ does not cause big earthquakes. The underground injection of industrial wastewater can, and sometimes does.

Bill Ellsworth is frustrated at how difficult it is getting people to understand this.

The senior U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist is on the cutting edge of new research linking earthquakes to the injection of oil and gas drilling waste (EnergyWire, March 29). But at last week’s earthquake conference here, he seemed to spend as much time trying to resolve the ‘fracking’ confusion as he did explaining his findings.

Earlier this month, he even found himself arguing with a cable news host about what his own research conclusions were.

‘I was greatly surprised to see how words were being used in the press in ways that were inappropriate,’ Ellsworth said as the annual meeting of the Seismological Society of America wrapped up. ‘We don’t see any connection between fracking and earthquakes of any concern to society.’

UPDATE III (4/16/12, 10:59am ET): State geologists from two states have criticized the conclusions made by USGS as a “rush to judgment,” specifically by linking oil and gas development with earthquakes. Colorado state geologist Vince Matthews said in an interview with E&E News (subs. req’d): “It’s unfortunate that they’ve jumped to this conclusion.” Meanwhile, Oklahoma state geologist G. Randy Keller pointed out that opponents of hydraulic fracturing seized on the findings — “There’s not a lot of calm reflection,” he said. In fact, Keller received so many inquiries about the report that he issued a position statement [PDF], which noted that “it is unlikely that all of the earthquakes can be attributed to human activities.” The statement also urged caution in too quickly identifying a link between seismic activity and oil and gas operations: “We consider a rush to judgment about earthquakes being triggered to be harmful to state, public and industry interests.”

UPDATE II (4/12/12, 10:06am ET): The U.S. Department of Interior has weighed in on the topic, according to a story from UPI. Here’s what Interior Department Deputy Secretary David Hayes had to say:

“While it appears likely that the observed seismicity rate changes in the middle part of the United States in recent years are man-made, it remains to be determined if they are related to either changes in production methodologies or to the rate of oil and gas production…We also find that there is no evidence to suggest that hydraulic fracturing itself is the cause of the increased rate of earthquakes.” (emphasis added)

Another part of the UPI story worth highlighting is that Mr. Hayes was not only clear about what is and isn’t causing the earthquakes, but also made sure to ding the media for jumping to conclusions:

Interior Department Deputy Secretary David Hayes said the accuracy of recent media reports on the link between fracking and earthquakes “varied greatly.” The Interior Department notes that, despite recent fervor, temblors associated with wastewater injection were first recorded in the 1960s.

UPDATE (4/12/12, 8:41am ET): A new story from NPR takes a look at the earthquake issue as well, noting in particular that while some people lay the blame for the seismic activity on hydraulic fracturing, the actual source is likely wastewater disposal wells. Bill Ellsworth with the USGS once again slaps down the notion that hydraulic fracturing is causing earthquakes, and quite definitively. Ellsworth says: “We find no evidence that fracking is related to the occurrence of earthquakes that people are feeling. We think that it’s more intimately connected to the wastewater disposal.”

—Original post from April 11, 2012—

Call it a natural consequence of a fundraising and advocacy strategy that’s based on continuously coming up with new and creative ways to scare the hell out of the general public. Last week, the watchword happened to be “earthquakes,” with activists opposed to responsible shale development seizing on an as-yet-unreleased U.S. Geological Survey report as “proof” that the hydraulic fracturing process causes the earth to shake off its axis.

Indeed, for those who are professionals at ginning up scary (and usually false) stories about developing natural gas from shale, the story basically wrote itself. After all, the USGS said the quakes were “almost certainly” man-made, so hydraulic fracturing has to be the culprit… right?

Alarmists certainly thought so. The environmental blog Grist ran with the headline: “Shale shocked: USGS links ‘remarkable increase’ in earthquakes to fracking.” Meanwhile, Earthworks activist Sharon Wilson wrote about the “fracking earthquakes” on her blog, linking directly to an Environmental Working Group “analysis” of the USGS findings.

The problem, though, is that the U.S. Geological Survey didn’t actually make that link.

In fact, the lead author of the USGS report, Bill Ellsworth, has made it pretty clear that the findings do not link hydraulic fracturing to earthquakes. As the Associated Press reported earlier this week: “Ellsworth said Friday he is confident thatfracking is not responsible for the earthquake trends his study found, based on prior studies.”

To make sure that point was made loud and clear, Ellsworth also appeared on CNBC this week to discuss the question of whether there is a link between hydraulic fracturing and seismic activity. Again, his answer was an unequivocal ‘no’ (start at the 10:23 mark):

BRIAN SULLIVAN: Bill Ellsworth, looking at a very reputable site right now on the web, I’m not going to say it by name because, listen, we all make mistakes. His executive summary point is geologists have made direct links between fracking and recent earthquakes. That sounds like you’re saying that is completely an incorrect statement.

BILL ELLSWORTH: It is incorrect. What we’ve found is there is a link between disposal of waste water and earthquakes. And in many of these cases, it’s been fixed by either shutting down the offending well or reducing the volume that’s being produced. So there are really straight-forward fixes to the problem when earthquakes begin to occur. (emphasis added)

(For his part, former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (D) said earlier in that CNBC segment: “That connection [between hydraulic fracturing and earthquakes] has not been established.” Richardson, who also served as Secretary of the Department of Energy under President Bill Clinton, also criticized opponents of simply trying to find a “gotcha statement” to advance a political agenda. Well said, Governor.)

This follows what Bill Leith — with the Earthquake Hazards Program in the U.S. Geological Survey — said in an NPR interview late last year and as reported by the Washington Times: “The fracking itself probably does not put enough energy into the ground to trigger an earthquake,” Leith said, who has also noted that the culprit appears to be wastewater wells. For some additional context, wastewater wells aren’t just used by the oil and gas industry, but by just about every other significant industry in the country.

But why let such inconvenient facts get in the way of spinning yet another frightening narrative about hydraulic fracturing upending the natural order of the world? Indeed, as the largest newspaper in Oklahoma observed, the opposition didn’t even need the USGS to issue a “gotcha statement,” because their premise is that correlation trumps causation:

“For the anti-fossil fuel activists, the two things can’t be separated. Earthquakes are increasing. Fracking is increasing. Ergo, fracking is causing earthquakes. To stop the earthquakes, we must stop the fracking!”

Indeed, it may be a lot of things to use the recent USGS findings to link hydraulic fracturing and earthquakes — convenient, sensational, and even scary.

6 Comments

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C'mon, really?

That’s some fine-line walking you’re doing there. Right, so the report doesn’t find the actual hydraulic fracturing of wells to be the cause of the quakes. However, the increased disposal of O&G wastewater (from fracked wells) in wastewater wells most definitely is linked to the increase in quakes. As today’s NPR story states: “the boom in natural gas drilling across the country has created a lot more wastewater. That requires building more big wells to bury the water.” Trying to walk the line of what is and isn’t fracking (which, for better or worse, is the public’s catch-all for current O&G production) is like saying that coal mining didn’t cause the Buffalo Creek Disaster, since it was actually due to the failure of a coal slurry dam.

Thanks for the comment. But as you can see from the post, we highlight the cause in several locations, including an underlined segment in Ellsworth’s comments on CNBC. The problem we were identifying from the very beginning is that opponents have rushed to judgment on the USGS report and said hydraulic fracturing causes earthquakes. But it’s pretty clear that such a claim is 100 percent false. There are 150,000 Class II injection wells across the country, and only about 40,000 of them are used for oil and gas waste water. And of those, only a handful are creating any problems, for reasons the USGS researchers (at least for the moment) cannot conclusively identify.

As to your final point of equivalence (coal mining and Buffalo Creek), your comment and our second update came almost simultaneously, so if you didn’t see that then you should probably give it a look: seismic activity resulting from waste water disposal goes back to at least the 1960s, long before the current “shale revolution” even began. Ellsworth also notes that the seismicity can be easily mitigated by simply reducing the rate at which waste water is injected. Injection wells are often times managed by a separate set of companies, and they have their own permitting requirements as well. Thus, managing the seismic risk has nothing to do with regulating the actual practice of hydraulic fracturing, which is fitting, because hydraulic fracturing is not the cause of the earthquakes in the first place.

When the final USGS report comes out, we’ll know more about what’s actually been found and — hopefully — what steps can be taken to further reduce risks. But in the meantime, it doesn’t do anyone any good to lie about what’s causing earthquakes. That was the purpose of our post.

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Randy Verret

There are over 100,000 permitted Class II disposal wells in the US and (now) over 1 Million frac’d wells. Yes, there is a possibility that disposal wells, in unique circumstances, can be linked to minor earthquake activity. There is evidence of this (historically) and any reputable geologist will agree that this is (certainly) theoretically possible. This does not make for a CRISIS. I have (already) suggested to a trade group (Western Energy Alliance) that some of the industry trade groups get together with the environmental groups and co-sponsor a comprehensive study by a reputable university. There is PLENTY of data that can be corrolated between industry locations/activities documented on public record and USGS seismic activity logs. Of course, that would mean application of the scientific method and consequent deliberation of the facts & logical (substantiated) conclusions & probable peer review. I HIGHLY DOUBT that the Sierra Club, Earthworks & others will want anything to do with that type of comprehensive analysis. FEAR trumps TRUTH. I (still) say that the industry should pursue this vigorously. If this was an old western film, your basic “smoke em out” strategy. It will expose the actual agenda of the environmental left. Nothing like a little LIGHT to sanitize. One man’s opinion, any way…

[…] the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Research Council have studied and determined there is no link between major earthquakes and hydraulic fracturing. Thus, unsurprisingly, here’s what GAO […]