Likewise last year's Haswell, Intel's 22 nm architecture refresh, slid back a few more months to June 2013. Some did notice this time, with rumors mounting that the die shrink to 14 nm -- Broadwell -- might be delayed until 2015. It turned out the reports were somewhat true -- Intel was suffering much higher defect rates than previously expected -- but Intel insisted that Broadwell chips would be delayed only a quarter, to Q1 2014.

But Q1 2014 (Jan. to Mar.) came and went and Broadwell still was a no-show in terms of shipments to OEMs. In an April 2014 earnings call, CEO Brian Krzanich insisted that the wait was almost over, saying that the chips would ship sometime in H2 2014. Most hoped this might mean Q3 2014, in time for the August-September back to school shopping season.

Intel CEO Brian Krzanich [Image Source: Intel Russia]

However, while attending the Maker Faire in San Mateo, Calif. this past Saturday Mr. Krzanich delivered some disappointing news to Reuters. His comment hints to investors and customers not to get their hopes up of seeing Broadwell product shipping in time for that key sales season.

He stated:

I can guarantee for holiday, and not at the last second of holiday. Back to school - that's a tight one. Back to school you have to really have it on-shelf in July, August. That's going to be tough.

If the Nov.-Dec. shipping window (perhaps with a September soft launch at the Intel Developer Forum) proves accurate, Intel will have lost nearly a full year in terms of slippage over the past four launch cycles, starting with Sandy Bridge.

Broadwell should be available in time for the holidays.

This slippage originates from the high defect rates that every chip fab company encounters when moving to smaller nodes. Intel typically tapes out test runs of chips and then must make the difficult decision of what will cost more -- the chips scrapped due to defects for the present process, or the cost of waiting and pushing back the refresh. No matter what Intel chooses a fair amount of chips will be lost to design flaws, the trick is minimizing that number.

Another key rival is Samsung Electronics Comp., Ltd. (KRX:005930) (KRX:005935). Having taped out 14 nm transistors in Dec. 2012 in a test run, Samsung has been working to mature the technology at its fabs. Samsung has teamed up with former Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) spinoff, Global Foundries to push the technology into production. According to a report in The EE Times, production is expected to begin in late H2 2014, and product may be available late in the holiday season.

Samsung and GlobalFoundries hope to ship 14 nm FinFET product by the end of 2014, as well.

That same article, though, added a grain of salt courtesy of market analysis firm International Business Strategies Inc. (IBS). Handel Jones, the firm's chief, told the publication:

IBS is expecting foundry-fabless companies also will experience delays on FinFETs similar to Intel. Also, Intel has experience of FinFETs at 22 nm, and foundry-fabless companies do not have same expertise.

So don't be surprised if third-party fabs aren't quite caught up yet with Intel when 2015 rolls around.