Outside of the obvious why does Average Draft Position really matter? I am not trying to be stupid I just don't understand the theory. Some of my best players I drafted too early according to ADP and some of my worst players I drafted According to ADP and they were busts for example Tony Gonzales I drafted early-mid Third round and he was a bust so far (through no fault of his) but he has been a disappointment, on the other hand I drafted Carnell Williams in the 4th Round and I believe that was early for him and I drafted Larry Fitz early then expected according to ADP. These two have paid dividends while guys like Kevin Jones 2nd Round pick 13 I think have been busts. Jamal Lewis was in a lot of people's top ten and he has been probably the biggest bust of all. So What I want to Know is why does ADP really matter when its a crap shoot? Also Why does RB RB reign supreme in drafting? I mean the Way I see it guys like Terell Owens, Chad Johnson, Steve Smith (Nobody knew hed be this good), Santana (another surprise) if taken 1 and 2 in your draft could set you up very nicely especially in leagues that award points for receptions. I realize its harder to get a good running back but again I think sometimes stud receivers are better than stud RBs in certain situations. Let me clarify however that LT, and Shawn Alexander are must 1 and 2 picks if you have those picks but outside of that I will take a stud receiver over say a RB like Mike Anderson, or Rudi Johnson.

As someone who works with numbers for a living, I can tell you averages don't mean crap. They are very misleading. ADP's "value" so to speak is that it tells you if you are getting a "bargain" or "taking a chance" relative to other drafts. It doesn't mean squat in terms of how players will actually perform. At the top, it has a little more meaning. If someone is averaging being picked 1.1 and they are the leading scorer, great. The guy in our league picked Peyton 1.1 and I got LT2 at 1.2 Shaun Alexander wasn't drafted until 6TH!!!!! in our league. My boss got a bargain there. But in reality there is no way to know who the bargains were and who the over-reachers were until the season is over. All of this is IMHO of course.

Clemson81 wrote:As someone who works with numbers for a living, I can tell you averages don't mean crap. They are very misleading. ADP's "value" so to speak is that it tells you if you are getting a "bargain" or "taking a chance" relative to other drafts. It doesn't mean squat in terms of how players will actually perform. At the top, it has a little more meaning. If someone is averaging being picked 1.1 and they are the leading scorer, great. The guy in our league picked Peyton 1.1 and I got LT2 at 1.2 Shaun Alexander wasn't drafted until 6TH!!!!! in our league. My boss got a bargain there. But in reality there is no way to know who the bargains were and who the over-reachers were until the season is over. All of this is IMHO of course.

Clem,
Thats what i am saying. I picked guys outside of their ADP and they were the ones that have performed. I picked them based on what I thought they would do, not what other people picking did. For example I thought Cadillac was going to play with a chip on his shoulder since he was picked behind the guy he started ahead of. I also knew that TB likes to run the ball and play defense so to me he seemed logical to pick ahead of other backs. I tend to also like the backs the catch passes a lot too. 6th for Alexander man what a bargain. Everyone had manning 1st this year but anyone logically picking would have to say he was not going to duplicate last year's success. He is having a good year but not as a number one overall. I would have picked LT first also.

A case where ADP was very useful for me this year. In one of my leagues, there were several players who couldn't make the live draft and opted to let the myfantasyleague draft tracker draft for them vice load their wishlist and risk uneven roster allocation. Therefore, knowing that the draft tracker used the MFL ADP to make its value-based picks, I was able to print out the ADP and have pretty good foresight on what those teams would be picking.

you picked people you thought would perform well regardless of "ADP", but so did a ton of other people. ADP is the combined information that all of those people have combined into totals. Nobody can predict the future, but it tells you how highly the rest of the world thinks of a player.

For me, it's just kind of a draft-day sanity check, so I don't get to amped up on a certain player and draft him too early. It's usually a pretty good indicator of where a player's gonna go. Just another tool, that's all.

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ADP is basically telling you what the "market" is for the particular player. It is useful for certain purposes. For instance, if you are wondering if a player you're considering will be available in the next round or two, it is a useful reference, especially those that also give a standard deviation.

Should you turn off your brain and rely on that? No way. But it is one of the more useful references for planning one or two rounds ahead.

Of course nobody or system can predict how players will produce.
ADP is a guide...most values are gotten from many mock draft sites.
It should be used to prevent reaching for players. And for guaging where runs might occur. As for your Gonzo and Caddy picks...they sound about right, maybe 1/2 rd early but that is where most of us drafted these players.

So What I want to Know is why does ADP really matter when its a crap shoot?

Well you can go into a draft with no clue as to where other owners might be taking a player...but I'd rather know. Ex. you mentioned S.Smith? I thought he'd have a great year if he stayed healthy, but his ADP wasn't till pick # 46......I would of taken him in the mid-late 3rd since I was so high on him.......I held off and got S.Jackson in the 3rd....and took Smith 4th (still early). That is what ADP can do for you. Knowledge is a terrible thing to waste.

Nobody knows who is going to perform well or not, its all guess work during the draft. The ADP helps you target players where everyone else usually drafts them. So if you want playerA and his ADP is 3.4 and your pick is 3.3, the average shows that if you dont take him now, he wont be there later.

You simply cannot compare the ADP to actual performances, that is unfair.

ItsGood! wrote:Whoa, I think you are mixing two things here, theory and reality.

Nobody knows who is going to perform well or not, its all guess work during the draft. The ADP helps you target players where everyone else usually drafts them. So if you want playerA and his ADP is 3.4 and your pick is 3.3, the average shows that if you dont take him now, he wont be there later.

You simply cannot compare the ADP to actual performances, that is unfair.

The only thing I use ADP for is to gauge when I should be drafting the players I target.

If I look at the ADP for every player, and I believe Steve Smith, Warrick Dunn, and Tom Brady will outperform their ADP by more than one round, I will highlight them, bump them up a round, and draft them at the appropriate time. If you are smart about it, it's best way to get the guys you want without reaching.

ADP is a waste of time. Best to use VBD. But even that isn't 100% reliable. No matter what picking scheme you use you're basing your pick on how you think, or how someone else thinks, a player is going to do in the future.

You can get a decent feel for who your best bets are but it's not guaranteed at all. The draft is only half the battle. Matter of fact I think a good draft is about 1/3 of the game. The other 2/3 is managing your team throughout the season, Waiver Wire skills and trade skills.

It's possible to have an absolutely lousy draft and still make your playoffs if you're a savvy owner who knows how to use the waiver wire well and makes good trades and knows who to play each week. I know because I typically have horrible luck in drafts but almost always make my playoffs and usually make the super bowl.

Agenda42 wrote:@gkotarides: ADP isn't a very good predictor of performance. However, I challenge you to find a better one.

All I hear here is "I was unlucky with a few guys, and I was lucky with a few guys". Yay, great for you, but none of that tells us anything about fantasy football at large.

I am not saying that ADP doesn't help you but what I am saying is that there is a lot more you have to factor in. You can't just go oh ADP says Peyton manning is #1 this year so I am picking him number one automatically. Had you done that you would have missed out on LT who is having a much better season and that I don't think would have been hard to predict. ADP is a guide to where guys are going but I think Conventional wisdom like RB RB can be challenged. I think You could Go WR WR or WR RB if you had the righ receivers.