Who Will Be Next Pope? Cardinals to Meet Without Clear Favorite

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There will be no clear favorite when the College of Cardinals meets in Rome later this month to choose a new Pope, according to the few students of the Roman Catholic Church who allow themselves to speculate openly about the successor to pone paul VI

Even though Pope Paul VI spoke several times about his impending death, none of the cardinals have speculated in public about the identity of his successor. If there is any politicking within their ranks it is not visible.

However, there are six or eight “papabili,” the Italian word for potential Popes. Perhaps the greatest suspense is whether the next Pope will be the first non‐Italian to reign since Adrian VI of the Netherlands, who ruled for 21 months in 1522 and 1523 and who was hooted by Roman crowds on his election.

There is a greater chance of a non‐Italian being elected now than in many years because non‐Europeans form a majority in the College of Cardinals for the first time in eight centuries and•there are only 26 Italians among the 116 cardinals eligible to vote. It is not inconceivable, according to observers of the Vatican, that non‐Italian cardinals might try to agree on one non‐Italian candidate.

Among those born outside Italy are Eduardo,Cardinal Pironio, born in Argentina of Italian parents; Franz Cardinal Koenig of Austria; Johannes Cardinal Willebrands of the Netherlands, Leon Cardinal Duval, the French‐born Archbishop of Algiers, and Aloisio Cardinal Lorscheider of Brazil.

While technically any bishop, priest or even layman could be voted Pope, the 263d successor to Peter is considered certain to come from the ranks of the 116 voting cardinals.

Some of these candid6tes are described by observers as “conservative” or “pro. gressive but all, in the setting of the College of Cardinals, are quite traditional.

“The issue is really not liberal or conservative,” says the Rev. Francis X. Murphy, who has been identified as the pseudonymous author Xavier Rynne, writer on Vatican politics. “The main thing is that the cardinals want to go forward. They had seen the Pope weaken in recent

While the United States has 10 cardinals — the second largest bloc behind the Italians — none are seen as a serious contenders. At this point it is not easy to say how they might vote. A Vatican source said last night of the church hierarchy in the United States that it “has consistently identified the church interests with those of their own nation. This is an important factor against them.”

If the new Pope is Italian, he is likely to come from the following:

Cardinal Benelli, 57 years old, who was appointed Archbishop of Florence by Pope Paul in 1977 in what some saw as an attempt to give Cardinal Benelli a home base in any future election. Cardinal Benelli had been the Pope's chief of staff, a strict administrator who controlled the Curia, but he may have made some enemies — and may be too young to impress his older colleagues.

Cardinal Baggio, 64, prefect of the Pax Sacred Congregation of Bishops and member of four other Curia departments, who is considered a superb religious diplomat, but who who has no territorial following.

Cardinal Felici, 69, the secretary general of the Second Vatican Council (1962‐1965), who is a polished speaker and who revised the Code of Canon Law. Some church progressives have accused him of trying to limit reconciliation and ecumenicism.

Cardinal Pignedoli, 67, who is president of the Secretariat for Non‐Christians. and who has visited 156 countries as a representative of the Vatican. He is known to stroll the Spanish Steps and talk to young people, which makes him suspect to some church elders.

Considered acceptable to both Italians and non‐Italians is Cardinal Pironio, 58, an Argentine of Italian parentage, who is head of the Congregation for the Religious, which oversees religious orders.

Another non‐Italian is Cardinal Willebrands, 68, Archbishop of Utrecht and Secretary for the Congregation for Christian Unity, who is seen as too progressive by conservatives because of the modern theology prevalent in the Netherlands.

A third non‐Italian is Cardinal Koenig, Archbishop of Vienna, 73, who helped Pope Paul revive contacts with Eastern European Catholics.

All these “papabili” have been put more in the public eye recently by several books and articles speculating on the next Pope. In Italy, Giancarlo Zizola wrote book that asked the question: “Quale Papa?” (“Which Pope?”).

In the United States, a Roman Catholic writer, Dr. Gary MacEoin, recently issued a book, “The Inner Elite,” which urged a more open election process. Dr. MacEoin apparently mailed a copy to each cardinal, listing two favorites: Cardinal Pignedoli (“more open and positive” than Pope Paul) and Cardinal Baggio (“very political‐minded, very shrewd and very smooth”). He also described Cardinal Benelli as “quite inadequate.”

Ugo Cardinal Poletti, left, speaking to Antonio Cardinal Poma, who is considered to be one of the candidates to succeed Paul VI as Pontiff.

A version of this archives appears in print on August 7, 1978, on Page A14 of the New York edition with the headline: Who Will Be Next Pope? Cardinals to Meet Without Clear Favorite. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe