(U) CLASSIFIED BY MICHAEL G. KOZAK, PRINCIPAL
OFFICER, FOR REASON 1.5 (D)
1. (C) SUMMARY: IN A RELATIVELY SHORT JANUARY 1
SPEECH, FIDEL CASTRO RECALLED THE HEROIC MOMENTS OF
HIS REVOLUTIONS TRIUMPH 40 YEARS AGO AND WARNED OF
THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS HE SAID WAS INEVITABLE.
ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS, CASTRO SPOKE TO CUBAS YOUTH,
TELLING THEM THAT CUBAS REVOLUTION "HAS JUST BEGUN",
AND REMINDING THEM THAT "GLORIOUS ACCOMPLISHMENTS"
AWAIT THEM, TOO. CASTROS CHICKEN LITTLE SCENARIO
FOR WORLD FINANCES AND HIS TOTAL AVOIDANCE OF THE
CUBAN PEOPLES REAL PERSONAL CRISES GIVE NO EVIDENCE
OF A PLAN FOR RESCUING CUBA FROM THE ECONOMIC AND
OTHER CRISES IT FINDS ITSELF IN. END SUMMARY.
2. (C) CASTROS SPEECH, PRINTED IN ITS ENTIRETY IN
THE JANUARY 4 EDITION OF THE WEEKLY "TRABAJADORES",
TOOK PLACE IN SANTIAGO DE CUBAS CESPEDES PARK.
CASTRO SPENT THE FIRST THIRD OF HIS SPEECH RECALLING
THE SACRIFICES AND HEROISM OF THE GUERRILLAS WHO
HELPED WIN THE FIRST BATTLES OF THE REVOLUTION IN
SEVERAL EASTERN CUBA TOWNS. FIDEL CALLED CAMILO
CIENFUEGOS AND CHE GUEVARA "MEN OF IRON", AND
ENCOURAGED CUBAN YOUTH TO READ CHES WAR NARRATIVE
"PASAJES DE LA GUERRA REVOLUCIONARIA." CASTRO NOTED
THAT THE ONLY OUTSIDE ASSISTANCE THE REVOLUTION
RECEIVED WERE 150 SEMI-AUTOMATIC RIFLES SENT BY THE
VENEZUELAN ADMIRAL LARRAZABAL. OTHERWISE, SAID
FIDEL, "MORE THAN NINETY PERCENT OF THE ARMS AND
MUNITIONS WITH WHICH WE MADE AND WON THE WAR WERE
TAKEN FROM THE ENEMY IN COMBAT."
3. (U) TRANSITIONING FROM THE BATTLEFIELD TO
PRESENT-DAY CUBA, CASTRO SAID "FOR THE NEWER
GENERATIONS, THE REVOLUTION HAS JUST BEGUN." CASTRO
NOTED THAT THOSE PRESENT WERE NOT THE SAME AS THOSE
CUBANS PRESENT AT THE TIME OF THE REVOLUTIONS
TRIUMPH. CASTRO ADDED THAT HE HIMSELF WAS "NOT
EXACTLY THE SAME MAN" THAT HE WAS FORTY YEARS AGO.
"HE IS ONLY SOMEONE MUCH YOUNGER, WHO HAS THE SAME
NAME, WHO DRESSES THE SAME, WHO THINKS THE SAME, WHO
DREAMS THE SAME."
4. (U) COMPARING DEMOGRAPHICS OF 1959 CUBA TO 1999
CUBA, CASTRO SAID OF THE ROUGHLY 11 MILLION CUBANS IN
CUBA TODAY, 7.2 MILLION WERE BORN AFTER THE TRIUMPH
OF THE REVOLUTION, AND ANOTHER 1.35 MILLION WERE LESS
THAN TEN YEARS OLD. HE CLAIMED THAT "THIRTY PERCENT"
OF CUBANS IN 1959 COULD NOT READ, AND "SIXTY PERCENT"
HAD NOT COMPLETED SIXTH GRADE. NOW, SAID CASTRO,
TEACHERS AND PROFESSORS IN CUBA NUMBER 250,000;
THERE ARE 64,000 DOCTORS, AND 600,000 UNIVERSITY
GRADUATES. "AN ILLITERATE PERSON DOES NOT EXIST, AND
IT IS EXTREMELY RARE THAT SOMEONE NOT HAVE A SIXTH
GRADE EDUCATION." IN SUM, CASTRO SAID THE "HEROIC"
CUBAN PEOPLES MOST GLORIOUS AND REVOLUTIONARY EPOCH
HAS BEEN THE STILL-ONGOING "SPECIAL PERIOD", "AS WE
REMAIN ABSOLUTELY ALONE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEST, 90
MILES AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES, AND WE HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP GOING FORWARD."
5. (U) CASTRO DEVOTED ALMOST THE ENTIRE REMAINDER
OF HIS SPEECH, ROUGHLY SIXTY PERCENT, WARNING
LISTENERS THAT THE CURRENT ECON0MIC SYSTEM IS
"UNSUSTAINABLE", THAT "THE ECON0MIC ORDER THAT
PREVAILS TODAY ON THE PLANET WILL INEVITABLY FALL",
AND THAT "MARKET THEOLOGY IS SECTARIAN,
FUNDAMENTALIST, AND ANTIECUMENICAL."
6. (U) USING INFLAMMATORY RHETORIC, CASTRO
DISCUSSED THE "WOLVES" WHO SPECULATE IN FOREIGN
CURRENCIES, CREDITING GEORGE SOROS WITH "BRINGING
GREAT BRITAIN TO ITS KNEES" THROUGH SPECULATION IN
THE BRITISH POUND. THE CUBAN LEADER ALSO SAID "THE
WHOLE WORLD IS TALKING ABOUT AN INTERNATIONAL
FINANCIAL CRISIS, THE ONLY ONES WHO HAVENT FOUND OUT
ABOUT IT ARE THE AMERICANS: THEY HAVE SPENT MORE
THAN EVER, AND THEIR SAVINGS ARE LESS THAN ZERO."
7. (U) CASTRO DESCRIBED TO THE SANTIAGO CROWD A
WORLD IN WHICH COMPLEX FINANCIAL STRUCTURES HAD
GOTTEN OUT OF CONTROL, COMPARING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL
SYSTEM TO A HUMAN BODY INFECTED WITH AIDS. FIDEL
SAID THE WORLD HAD TURNED INTO "ONE BIG CASINO" WHERE
"CURRENCY SPECULATION" AND TRADING IN
DERIVATIVES--EVEN "EMPLOYING COMPUTERS" TO MAKE
"SOPHISTICATED CALCULATIONS"--HAD BECOME
COMMONPLACE. CASTRO CITED THE COLLAPSE OF THE LONG
TERM CAPITAL FUND IN WHICH "TWO NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS
IN ECONOMY AND SOME OF THE BEST PROGRAMMERS IN THE
WORLD" COMBINED TO BRING THE FUND TO THE VERGE OF
FINANCIAL COLLAPSE, THE CONSEQUENCES OF WHICH WERE
"INCALCULABLE."
8. (C) ALSO NOTEWORTHY IN CASTROS REMARKS WAS HIS
CALL FOR THE THIRD WORLDS (PRESUMABLY INCLUDING
CUBA) PROBLEMS TO BE RESOLVED FROM OUTSIDE. "THERE
ISNT THE MOST MINIMAL IDEA OF HOW TO RESOLVE THE
THIRD WORLDS PROBLEMS." "WHERE ARE THE CONSUMERS OF
THE THIRD WORLDS PRODUCTS?" CASTRO SAID THE
UNITED NATIONS, PROVIDED IT "PUTS AN END TO THE
DICTATORSHIP OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL", COULD HELP
PROGRAM WORLD DEVELOPMENT. CERTAINLY, SAID CASTRO,
THAT RESPONSIBILITY CANNOT BE "IN THE HANDS OF
MULTINATIONALS AND IN THE BLIND AND CHAOTIC LAWS OF
THE MARKET." CASTRO ADDED THAT THE AUTHORITY OF THE
U.N. GENERAL ASSEMBLY SHOULD BE BROADENED.
9. (C) COMMENT: CASTROS SPEECH IS TYPICAL IN ITS
FOCUS ON TWO CURRENT THEMES: THE "MILITARY MIRACLE"
OF HIS REVOLUTIONS OVERTHROW OF THE BATISTA
GOVERNMENT, AND THE "INEVITABLE" GLOBAL FINANCIAL
COLLAPSE BROUGHT ON BY UNBRIDLED FREEDOM OF THE
GLOBAL CAPITALIST SYSTEM. WITH LITTLE TO OFFER IN
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, CASTRO (AGAIN)
CONCENTRATED HIS REMARKS ON THE CERTAINTY OF THE PAST
AND PLAYED ON FEARS OF A WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS TO
VINDICATE THE CORRECTNESS OF HIS OWN INSISTENCE ON
RETAINING A SOVIET STYLE COMMAND ECONOMY. HIS
REMARKS COMMEMORATING THE REVOLUTIONS 40TH
ANNIVERSARY GIVE LITTLE ROOM FOR HOPE THAT HE IS
PREPARING FOR ADDITIONAL MARKET ORIENTED REFORMS.
APPARENTLY WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE CUBAN
ECONOMY AGAIN REACHES THE SORT OF DIRE SITUATION IT
FACED IN 1994 BEFORE CASTRO AND HIS REACTIONARY
COLLEAGUES WILL BE FORCED TO COME TO TERMS WITH THE
NEED FOR REFORM. NOTE: FOR ANOTHER RECENT EXAMPLE
OF GOC SPEECHMAKING REMOVED FROM REALITY, SEE
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PRESIDENT RICARDO ALARCONS SPEECH
ENDING THE ASSEMBLYS MOST RECENT SESSION (REFTEL).
KOZAK

Raw content

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HAVANA 000075
ROME ALSO FOR EMBASSY VATICAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 1-6-09
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, CU
SUBJECT: CASTRO SPEAKS ON REVOLUTION'S 40TH BIRTHDAY
REF: FBIS 301938Z DEC 98
(U) CLASSIFIED BY MICHAEL G. KOZAK, PRINCIPAL
OFFICER, FOR REASON 1.5 (D)
1. (C) SUMMARY: IN A RELATIVELY SHORT JANUARY 1
SPEECH, FIDEL CASTRO RECALLED THE HEROIC MOMENTS OF
HIS REVOLUTIONS TRIUMPH 40 YEARS AGO AND WARNED OF
THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS HE SAID WAS INEVITABLE.
ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS, CASTRO SPOKE TO CUBAS YOUTH,
TELLING THEM THAT CUBAS REVOLUTION "HAS JUST BEGUN",
AND REMINDING THEM THAT "GLORIOUS ACCOMPLISHMENTS"
AWAIT THEM, TOO. CASTROS CHICKEN LITTLE SCENARIO
FOR WORLD FINANCES AND HIS TOTAL AVOIDANCE OF THE
CUBAN PEOPLES REAL PERSONAL CRISES GIVE NO EVIDENCE
OF A PLAN FOR RESCUING CUBA FROM THE ECONOMIC AND
OTHER CRISES IT FINDS ITSELF IN. END SUMMARY.
2. (C) CASTROS SPEECH, PRINTED IN ITS ENTIRETY IN
THE JANUARY 4 EDITION OF THE WEEKLY "TRABAJADORES",
TOOK PLACE IN SANTIAGO DE CUBAS CESPEDES PARK.
CASTRO SPENT THE FIRST THIRD OF HIS SPEECH RECALLING
THE SACRIFICES AND HEROISM OF THE GUERRILLAS WHO
HELPED WIN THE FIRST BATTLES OF THE REVOLUTION IN
SEVERAL EASTERN CUBA TOWNS. FIDEL CALLED CAMILO
CIENFUEGOS AND CHE GUEVARA "MEN OF IRON", AND
ENCOURAGED CUBAN YOUTH TO READ CHES WAR NARRATIVE
"PASAJES DE LA GUERRA REVOLUCIONARIA." CASTRO NOTED
THAT THE ONLY OUTSIDE ASSISTANCE THE REVOLUTION
RECEIVED WERE 150 SEMI-AUTOMATIC RIFLES SENT BY THE
VENEZUELAN ADMIRAL LARRAZABAL. OTHERWISE, SAID
FIDEL, "MORE THAN NINETY PERCENT OF THE ARMS AND
MUNITIONS WITH WHICH WE MADE AND WON THE WAR WERE
TAKEN FROM THE ENEMY IN COMBAT."
3. (U) TRANSITIONING FROM THE BATTLEFIELD TO
PRESENT-DAY CUBA, CASTRO SAID "FOR THE NEWER
GENERATIONS, THE REVOLUTION HAS JUST BEGUN." CASTRO
NOTED THAT THOSE PRESENT WERE NOT THE SAME AS THOSE
CUBANS PRESENT AT THE TIME OF THE REVOLUTIONS
TRIUMPH. CASTRO ADDED THAT HE HIMSELF WAS "NOT
EXACTLY THE SAME MAN" THAT HE WAS FORTY YEARS AGO.
"HE IS ONLY SOMEONE MUCH YOUNGER, WHO HAS THE SAME
NAME, WHO DRESSES THE SAME, WHO THINKS THE SAME, WHO
DREAMS THE SAME."
4. (U) COMPARING DEMOGRAPHICS OF 1959 CUBA TO 1999
CUBA, CASTRO SAID OF THE ROUGHLY 11 MILLION CUBANS IN
CUBA TODAY, 7.2 MILLION WERE BORN AFTER THE TRIUMPH
OF THE REVOLUTION, AND ANOTHER 1.35 MILLION WERE LESS
THAN TEN YEARS OLD. HE CLAIMED THAT "THIRTY PERCENT"
OF CUBANS IN 1959 COULD NOT READ, AND "SIXTY PERCENT"
HAD NOT COMPLETED SIXTH GRADE. NOW, SAID CASTRO,
TEACHERS AND PROFESSORS IN CUBA NUMBER 250,000;
THERE ARE 64,000 DOCTORS, AND 600,000 UNIVERSITY
GRADUATES. "AN ILLITERATE PERSON DOES NOT EXIST, AND
IT IS EXTREMELY RARE THAT SOMEONE NOT HAVE A SIXTH
GRADE EDUCATION." IN SUM, CASTRO SAID THE "HEROIC"
CUBAN PEOPLES MOST GLORIOUS AND REVOLUTIONARY EPOCH
HAS BEEN THE STILL-ONGOING "SPECIAL PERIOD", "AS WE
REMAIN ABSOLUTELY ALONE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEST, 90
MILES AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES, AND WE HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP GOING FORWARD."
5. (U) CASTRO DEVOTED ALMOST THE ENTIRE REMAINDER
OF HIS SPEECH, ROUGHLY SIXTY PERCENT, WARNING
LISTENERS THAT THE CURRENT ECON0MIC SYSTEM IS
"UNSUSTAINABLE", THAT "THE ECON0MIC ORDER THAT
PREVAILS TODAY ON THE PLANET WILL INEVITABLY FALL",
AND THAT "MARKET THEOLOGY IS SECTARIAN,
FUNDAMENTALIST, AND ANTIECUMENICAL."
6. (U) USING INFLAMMATORY RHETORIC, CASTRO
DISCUSSED THE "WOLVES" WHO SPECULATE IN FOREIGN
CURRENCIES, CREDITING GEORGE SOROS WITH "BRINGING
GREAT BRITAIN TO ITS KNEES" THROUGH SPECULATION IN
THE BRITISH POUND. THE CUBAN LEADER ALSO SAID "THE
WHOLE WORLD IS TALKING ABOUT AN INTERNATIONAL
FINANCIAL CRISIS, THE ONLY ONES WHO HAVENT FOUND OUT
ABOUT IT ARE THE AMERICANS: THEY HAVE SPENT MORE
THAN EVER, AND THEIR SAVINGS ARE LESS THAN ZERO."
7. (U) CASTRO DESCRIBED TO THE SANTIAGO CROWD A
WORLD IN WHICH COMPLEX FINANCIAL STRUCTURES HAD
GOTTEN OUT OF CONTROL, COMPARING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL
SYSTEM TO A HUMAN BODY INFECTED WITH AIDS. FIDEL
SAID THE WORLD HAD TURNED INTO "ONE BIG CASINO" WHERE
"CURRENCY SPECULATION" AND TRADING IN
DERIVATIVES--EVEN "EMPLOYING COMPUTERS" TO MAKE
"SOPHISTICATED CALCULATIONS"--HAD BECOME
COMMONPLACE. CASTRO CITED THE COLLAPSE OF THE LONG
TERM CAPITAL FUND IN WHICH "TWO NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS
IN ECONOMY AND SOME OF THE BEST PROGRAMMERS IN THE
WORLD" COMBINED TO BRING THE FUND TO THE VERGE OF
FINANCIAL COLLAPSE, THE CONSEQUENCES OF WHICH WERE
"INCALCULABLE."
8. (C) ALSO NOTEWORTHY IN CASTROS REMARKS WAS HIS
CALL FOR THE THIRD WORLDS (PRESUMABLY INCLUDING
CUBA) PROBLEMS TO BE RESOLVED FROM OUTSIDE. "THERE
ISNT THE MOST MINIMAL IDEA OF HOW TO RESOLVE THE
THIRD WORLDS PROBLEMS." "WHERE ARE THE CONSUMERS OF
THE THIRD WORLDS PRODUCTS?" CASTRO SAID THE
UNITED NATIONS, PROVIDED IT "PUTS AN END TO THE
DICTATORSHIP OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL", COULD HELP
PROGRAM WORLD DEVELOPMENT. CERTAINLY, SAID CASTRO,
THAT RESPONSIBILITY CANNOT BE "IN THE HANDS OF
MULTINATIONALS AND IN THE BLIND AND CHAOTIC LAWS OF
THE MARKET." CASTRO ADDED THAT THE AUTHORITY OF THE
U.N. GENERAL ASSEMBLY SHOULD BE BROADENED.
9. (C) COMMENT: CASTROS SPEECH IS TYPICAL IN ITS
FOCUS ON TWO CURRENT THEMES: THE "MILITARY MIRACLE"
OF HIS REVOLUTIONS OVERTHROW OF THE BATISTA
GOVERNMENT, AND THE "INEVITABLE" GLOBAL FINANCIAL
COLLAPSE BROUGHT ON BY UNBRIDLED FREEDOM OF THE
GLOBAL CAPITALIST SYSTEM. WITH LITTLE TO OFFER IN
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, CASTRO (AGAIN)
CONCENTRATED HIS REMARKS ON THE CERTAINTY OF THE PAST
AND PLAYED ON FEARS OF A WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS TO
VINDICATE THE CORRECTNESS OF HIS OWN INSISTENCE ON
RETAINING A SOVIET STYLE COMMAND ECONOMY. HIS
REMARKS COMMEMORATING THE REVOLUTIONS 40TH
ANNIVERSARY GIVE LITTLE ROOM FOR HOPE THAT HE IS
PREPARING FOR ADDITIONAL MARKET ORIENTED REFORMS.
APPARENTLY WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE CUBAN
ECONOMY AGAIN REACHES THE SORT OF DIRE SITUATION IT
FACED IN 1994 BEFORE CASTRO AND HIS REACTIONARY
COLLEAGUES WILL BE FORCED TO COME TO TERMS WITH THE
NEED FOR REFORM. NOTE: FOR ANOTHER RECENT EXAMPLE
OF GOC SPEECHMAKING REMOVED FROM REALITY, SEE
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PRESIDENT RICARDO ALARCONS SPEECH
ENDING THE ASSEMBLYS MOST RECENT SESSION (REFTEL).
KOZAK