After Percoco verdict, observers question what it means for Cuomo

The conviction Tuesday of Joe Percoco, former top aide to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, comes at a critical moment for the governor, who is seeking re-election to a third term this year as he is rumored to harbor ambitions for a 2020 presidential run.

After a six-week trial and two weeks of jury deliberations, Percoco was found guilty on two counts of conspiracy to commit fraud and one count of bribery, on charges he’d sold his influence in state government for hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes.

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The verdict comes as Cuomo faces the possibility of a primary challenge from actress Cynthia Nixon, a potential scenario which appears to have blindsided the governor and his top aides last week, sending them scrambling into campaign mode.

The trial exposed some of the dark corners of the Cuomo administration, including a bullying culture where aides were threatened if they tried to leave, and a widespread tendency among the most senior members of Cuomo’s administration to evade transparency rules and keep their communications secret.

Cuomo expressed sympathy for Percoco's family Tuesday, but said he respected the jury's decision.

"While I am sad for Joe Percoco's young daughters who will have to deal with this pain, I echo the message of the verdict — there is no tolerance for any violation of the public trust," the governor said in a prepared statement. "There is no higher calling than public service and integrity is paramount — principles that have guided my work during the last 40 years. The verdict demonstrated that these ideals have been violated by someone I knew for a long time. That is personally painful; however, we must learn from what happened and put additional safeguards in place to secure the public trust. Anything less is unacceptable."

But while Cuomo’s detractors see an opening to dethrone the governor, others say the verdict is likely to have little impact on his political future.

Shortly after the verdict was returned, Cuomo’s critics pounced. State Sen. John DeFrancisco (R-Syracuse), who is running against Cuomo this year, told reporters inside the state capitol in Albany Tuesday that the Percoco verdict shows a “need for change at the top.”

Zephyr Teachout, the law professor who ran a surprisingly robust challenge against Cuomo in 2014 from the left, said the guilty verdict exposes Cuomo’s hypocrisy and will make his reelection more difficult.

“When you run on cleaning up corruption and your right-hand man gets convicted of serious corruption charges, you've got a very serious problem,” she told POLITICO in an emailed statement. “Cuomo's first campaign promise in 2010 was to ‘Clean up Albany.’ Now he has to run on ‘Don't mind the stink of corruption.’”

“It's not just Percoco,” she added. “It's Moreland, it’s shutting down a corruption commission. It's the leaders of the Assembly and Senate. It's a big corrupt mess in Albany, and Cuomo can't claim he cares about it AND that he knows how to get things done,” Teachout said. “Either he doesn't care, or he's implicated, or he doesn't have the leadership to clean it up. None of those three is a good look when running for a 3rd term. After 8 years, you can't point fingers; you have to take responsibility.”

Other observers suggested the verdict could put a damper on his national political ambitions, which include playing a major role supporting Democratic candidates in their efforts to flip New York’s Republican House seats this fall, and a rumored potential run for president in two years.

William O’Reilly, a consultant to DeFrancisco’s campaign, tweeted: “Cuomo 2020 is no longer realistic.”

And the National Republican Campaign Committee immediately took aim, sending out an email Tuesday afternoon with the subject line: “GUILTY.”

Another famous governor across the Hudson River saw his political fortunes decline rapidly after the conviction of former top aides on corruption charges, but Cuomo’s situation is markedly different from former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s, Montclair State University professor of political science Brigid Harrison told POLITICO.

“Many people point to Bridgegate as being Governor Christie’s downfall,” Harrison said. “It certainly did not help his popularity in the state of New Jersey, but the reality is there were other factors that made his approval rating sink in the state,” primarily his handling of the economy, she said.

His national reputation and his chances of success in the 2016 GOP presidential primary failed in large part because he was perceived as “not conservative enough for the conservative wing of the republican party that was so important in the GOP primary process,” and not because of Bridgegate, Harrison said.

Cuomo is also more insulated from the charges in the Percoco trial.

Jurors saw hundreds of emails and heard testimony from top Cuomo aides during the Percoco trial that suggested top aides have evaded transparency practices, but there was no evidence directly linking Percoco’s behavior to the governor. Not a single email from Cuomo emerged during the course of the trial. That’s a crucial difference between Percoco’s case and Bridgegate, Harrison said.

“While both are obviously high-level gubernatorial aides, there was always the perception during Bridgegate that the trail could eventually lead to Governor Christie, and I’m not sure that we’ve had that same palpable sense during this trial in the pay-to-play scandal,” Harrison said.

Percoco’s actions, taking bribes in exchange for using his influence to benefit executives with state business, benefited him personally, rather than the governor, Harrison noted.

“There’s a key distinction. In many ways, I think it’s much easier for Governor Cuomo to distance himself and say this was an aberration and obviously he made some bad choices,” she said. “Ideally you’d prefer that none of your aides were convicted, but I think the circumstances in these two different scenarios are different. The New York situation probably has fewer repercussions for Governor Cuomo’s long term political career."

A Cuomo adviser, speaking on background, brushed off the verdict’s impact.

“The haters hate, and this is something to hang their hat on,” said the adviser, who requested anonymity to speak freely about the case. “But I don’t think it politically is going to have any material impact on the election year. His record is appealing to Democratic voters and independent voters.”

Attacks about arrogance don’t get you to fifty percent, the adviser said. While obviously the verdict doesn’t help and would be used in the election, it’s not seen as an existential threat and the negative impact is probably already built into the governor’s poll numbers.

That’s amplified this year by a national political climate that is looking increasingly blue and the governor’s own attacks on Donald Trump.

Democratic political consultant Hank Sheinkopf, who has worked for Cuomo’s campaigns in the past, said the Percoco verdict meant “absolutely nothing” for Cuomo’s political future.

“Joe Percoco's name is not on the ballot,” Sheinkopf said. “So will the governor be attacked by some people? Certainly,” he said, adding that “politics is always about balance” and “this is far outweighed by his record.”

There is the potential that the verdicts could boost what government reformers say are the kindling embers of reform.

Blair Horner, executive director of the New York Public Interest Research Group, said the verdict “should be a wake-up call to the governor and the Legislature that it’s time to act.”

Specifically, he and other advocates want to see tight limits on what state contractors can give to politicians. (Cuomo has proposed language on this that Horner said leaves several easy workarounds.)

The case also exposed many deficiencies in the Joint Commission on Public Ethics, a body that Cuomo touted in 2011 as an historic step toward fighting corruption. It is charged with regulating lobbyists, but did nothing as Todd Howe peddled influence without registering. It is charged with enforcing the state’s public officers law, which testimony indicates Percoco may have violated by continuing to use his government office while managing the governor’s 2014 reelection campaign.

DeFrancisco said JCOPE should be either significantly overhauled or replaced.

“These are things they’re supposed to ferret out and correct,” DeFrancisco said. He also suggested more oversight of economic development contracts, such as those that that went to Cor Development and LPCiminelli in Buffalo. Those contracts will be at the center of an upcoming bid-rigging trial where Howe is expected to testify against former SUNY Polytechnic Institude President Alain Kaloyeros.

“We need to restrict the unfettered ability of the governor to do what he wants, when he wants and whether it’s right or wrong, legal or illegal,” DeFrancisco said.

A spokesperson for Cuomo did not respond to a request for comment on the verdict.