The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

The Blue-winged Teal, unlike many other migratory waterfowl, is much less adapted to withstanding cold temperatures, and most winter in Mexico and Central America. Audubon’s climate model projects a significant shift in summer range by 2080, with only 39% of the present remaining stable and nearly completely away from the current core of its range. As with many other species, the summer climate space of this elegant little duck will likely move northward. While the suitable areas for wintering in the United States may increase, it remains to be seen if this species will be able to follows the shifting climate suitable areas in the summer.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.