11pm Bill Round Up

Pretty much right after I published the last post, the NHC updated its internal files to show an upgrade to TS Bill. Since the forecast thinking is pretty much the same I just want to update the numbers with this post. You can find the post from a couple hours ago at: https://jonathanbelles.com/2015/06/15/effects-of-protostorm-bill-already-being-felt-ashore-system-and-residents-organizing/

Some voluntary evacuation orders have been issued for Bolivar Peninsula. Check in with local authorities.

Let me stress that impacts have not changed just because we can find this system in the history books a little easier with a name. Landfall will be in the mid to late morning hours on Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters will again take off for one last flight into this system at 9:15z/4:15am CT.

Overnight, expect an increase in the frequency in rainfall and the intensity of the winds along the coast and inland. Locations from Rockport to Beaumont should be the most impacted by winds and rainfall. By tomorrow afternoon, this Bill will probably make it to Texas capitol hill with heavy rain and gusty winds, and into north Texas on Wednesday. A long day in the Hill Country and I-35 corridor is ahead.

Expect a couple of days of long commutes in eastern Texas and around the Arklatex into Oklahoma. Please Don’t Drive into flood waters, your boss would probably want you to arrive late rather than not at all.

Meteorology Mumbo!

Eyewall Replacement Cycle -- As strong hurricanes, typhoons, or cyclones intensify or hold steady, they can often replace the strongest region of winds and heaviest rains called the eyewall. This happens, usually in major hurricanes, when subsidence begins or intensifies outside of the eyewall OR a stronger band of storms forms outside of the main eyewall and feeds into the center of the system. Generally the effect is a weakening of the system at least temporarily. The hurricane also usually expands during this process. Cycles typically last 12-18 hours including the contraction process. The inner eyewall may dissipated in less than 12 hours after the outer eyewall forms.

Forecast Disclaimer

Any forecast that I make and post here or anywhere else is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just my opinion, and should be used as such. For official forecasts and information please go to the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov or your local National Weather Service at weather.gov.