2015-09-17 15:59:57 fib1618: good day2015-09-17 16:00:00 fib1618: how is everyone?2015-09-17 16:00:19 thespookyone: Fine, and you?2015-09-17 16:00:31 fib1618: fine and dandy-o!2015-09-17 16:00:34 rite01: Fine here as well2015-09-17 16:01:15 thespookyone: looks like you scared everyone off Dave, LOL2015-09-17 16:01:26 fib1618: ha!2015-09-17 16:01:34 fib1618: happens when the market rallies2015-09-17 16:01:45 thespookyone: so true2015-09-17 16:03:05 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??2015-09-17 16:03:15 rite01: Ticks still in BUY but the Index’s 5 min. 19 and 39 EMA have gone to SELL last hour...this means what?2015-09-17 16:04:28 fib1618: take a stab at it2015-09-17 16:04:55 rite01: Ok2015-09-17 16:05:39 rite01: never mind2015-09-17 16:05:48 fib1618: 2015-09-17 16:05:59 fib1618: the EMA's didn't go to sell, did they?2015-09-17 16:06:11 rite01: not on the Tick's2015-09-17 16:06:13 fib1618: nope2015-09-17 16:06:39 fib1618: it would be difficult for the TICK to be still on a buy and the EMA's on a sell2015-09-17 16:06:56 fib1618: but I would be willing to bet that much of this is still short covering2015-09-17 16:06:58 fib1618: now2015-09-17 16:07:09 fib1618: ES futures expired at the close today2015-09-17 16:07:21 fib1618: and that is probably why we had the hard sell off in the last hour2015-09-17 16:07:25 fib1618: that's out of the way2015-09-17 16:07:53 fib1618: now we have to get through quarterly options on futures, index options and equity options2015-09-17 16:08:03 fib1618: much of which were heavy on the put side2015-09-17 16:08:20 fib1618: but here's the important thing today2015-09-17 16:08:29 fib1618: the FED did NOT raise rates2015-09-17 16:08:31 fib1618: in fact2015-09-17 16:08:38 fib1618: their statement was the same as July's2015-09-17 16:09:08 fib1618: so this tells us that interest rates are not likely to move higher at the October meeting either2015-09-17 16:09:36 fib1618: now...why do you think the FED has decided to continue to take a "balanced approach"?2015-09-17 16:10:12 fib1618: probably because...they see something that tells them the economy is not as robust as many would have you believe2015-09-17 16:10:17 rite01: The whole world's economy not doing that well...2015-09-17 16:10:22 fib1618: there you go2015-09-17 16:10:29 fib1618: and if that's the case2015-09-17 16:10:50 fib1618: earnings are likely to be disappointing for the 3rd quarter that starts next month2015-09-17 16:11:09 fib1618: I'm telling you folks2015-09-17 16:11:16 fib1618: business is really tough right now2015-09-17 16:11:30 fib1618: and I don't see a light as yet2015-09-17 16:12:50 fib1618: and shipments out of China over the last 2 months have been really slow2015-09-17 16:13:00 fib1618: anyway2015-09-17 16:13:18 fib1618: knowing that stock valuations are solely based on futures earnings growth2015-09-17 16:14:11 fib1618: one would think that no rate increase today is a stealth way of telling traders that things are not as good as they had hoped with the Unemployment Rate reaching their goal2015-09-17 16:14:15 fib1618: then again2015-09-17 16:14:23 fib1618: U-6 is over 10% still2015-09-17 16:14:58 fib1618: and many have either dropped out or are now working part time because of Obamacare2015-09-17 16:15:02 thespookyone: what is U-6?2015-09-17 16:15:14 rite01: Good question2015-09-17 16:15:30 fib1618: there are 6 different unemployment numbers that the Department of Labor keeps tabs on2015-09-17 16:15:38 fib1618: the one we hear about is U-32015-09-17 16:15:49 fib1618: or is it U-4?2015-09-17 16:15:54 fib1618: have to check2015-09-17 16:16:29 fib1618: but U-6 is taking all unemployed including those that have dropped off and are no longer entitled to unemployment2015-09-17 16:16:45 fib1618: let me check...I'll get the link - one sec2015-09-17 16:16:56 thespookyone: ah, thx2015-09-17 16:18:04 rite01: Didn't they used to use report U-6 only many years ago?2015-09-17 16:18:26 fib1618: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm2015-09-17 16:18:53 fib1618: you'll see it's currently at 10.3%2015-09-17 16:19:21 fib1618: and, yes, we hear about U-3 the first Friday of the month2015-09-17 16:19:45 rite01: Dave much Obliged2015-09-17 16:19:51 fib1618: no problem2015-09-17 16:20:06 fib1618: usually the U-6 number is about double of what we hear about2015-09-17 16:20:09 fib1618: and then...2015-09-17 16:20:20 fib1618: there's the total number of people who are looking for work right now2015-09-17 16:20:36 fib1618: which is at record...just under 100 million people2015-09-17 16:20:39 fib1618: now...2015-09-17 16:20:53 fib1618: if the population of the United States is about 330 million2015-09-17 16:21:04 fib1618: and we discount those who don't or can't work2015-09-17 16:21:28 fib1618: you're talking close to 50% of the total work force is still not working2015-09-17 16:21:37 fib1618: that's probably a bit high2015-09-17 16:21:41 fib1618: but still it's staggering2015-09-17 16:21:48 fib1618: yes...2015-09-17 16:22:01 fib1618: the Government doesn't count part time2015-09-17 16:22:08 fib1618: or home based businesses2015-09-17 16:22:15 fib1618: so if we allow for that2015-09-17 16:22:33 fib1618: it would probably be fair that 1/3 of those who are able to work can't2015-09-17 16:22:38 fib1618: or won't2015-09-17 16:23:02 fib1618: and each state has their own incentives and disincentives to hire2015-09-17 16:23:21 fib1618: raising the minimum wage being paramount2015-09-17 16:23:28 fib1618: and so it goes2015-09-17 16:23:30 fib1618: anyway2015-09-17 16:23:38 fib1618: this was a very interesting FED day2015-09-17 16:24:09 fib1618: and I'll be watching with great interest how the aftershocks of this travel through the system2015-09-17 16:24:31 fib1618: for myself...I say "thank you"2015-09-17 16:24:49 fib1618: because I know there are quite a few out there that would not had made it to the end of the year2015-09-17 16:25:00 fib1618: if there was a 1/4 point jump2015-09-17 16:25:06 fib1618: and though that may not sound much2015-09-17 16:25:54 fib1618: but the higher the debt2015-09-17 16:26:06 fib1618: the more the minimum payment on those loans that are variable2015-09-17 16:26:52 fib1618: 100,000 at 5% would be $416 a month in interest2015-09-17 16:27:22 fib1618: but it would move to $437 a month on a 1/4% point2015-09-17 16:27:33 fib1618: again2015-09-17 16:27:38 fib1618: doesn't sound much2015-09-17 16:27:45 fib1618: but with business so strapped right now2015-09-17 16:28:03 fib1618: every dollar is being counted closely2015-09-17 16:28:11 fib1618: anyway2015-09-17 16:28:14 fib1618: let's move on2015-09-17 16:28:22 fib1618: and get SC up and see what we have to work with2015-09-17 16:28:31 fib1618: first...let me check the BETS2015-09-17 16:28:33 fib1618: one sec2015-09-17 16:29:32 fib1618: ready?2015-09-17 16:29:38 fib1618: -202015-09-17 16:29:41 fib1618: cash2015-09-17 16:29:45 unc1998: wow!2015-09-17 16:29:58 fib1618: we were very close to moving above the EMA's on Tuesday2015-09-17 16:30:06 fib1618: and did so yesterday2015-09-17 16:30:21 fib1618: but we have to wait for Friday before we can get too excited2015-09-17 16:30:28 fib1618: but a nice reversal nonetheless2015-09-17 16:30:39 fib1618: OK...now that we have some background to work with2015-09-17 16:30:44 fib1618: let's see how things look2015-09-17 16:31:25 fib1618: after moving sharply higher on Tuesday2015-09-17 16:31:37 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO extended those gains into Wednesday2015-09-17 16:31:58 fib1618: and peaked out at the +70 level2015-09-17 16:32:13 fib1618: so more than enough to close the MCSUM gap resistance zone2015-09-17 16:32:51 fib1618: and we can see the new found strength now moving into this basket of issues as the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM begins to stretch out to the upside2015-09-17 16:32:59 fib1618: as we thought might happen last week2015-09-17 16:33:47 fib1618: the market again broke out of its indecision patterns before the announcement that was being used as the basis of this same indecision 2015-09-17 16:34:31 fib1618: but then peaked out today as the CVI's told us would likely happen on Tuesday2015-09-17 16:35:07 fib1618: now...when we look at the NYSE CO breadth MCO components2015-09-17 16:35:39 fib1618: we also see that the 5% Trend has only today fully snapped back to its zero line2015-09-17 16:35:44 fib1618: coming in with a reading of +12015-09-17 16:35:50 fib1618: so...technically2015-09-17 16:35:56 fib1618: we have a buy signal here with this MCO2015-09-17 16:36:11 fib1618: though it's not one in which you can go "all in" either2015-09-17 16:36:27 fib1618: another good day by the buyers though would remedy that2015-09-17 16:36:28 fib1618: or...2015-09-17 16:36:38 fib1618: if the NYSE Composite components are leading in this area2015-09-17 16:36:43 fib1618: so let's see how they're doing2015-09-17 16:37:05 fib1618: and we pretty much has the same situation there2015-09-17 16:37:17 fib1618: however2015-09-17 16:37:40 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO is still falling behind the CO data in amplitude2015-09-17 16:37:49 fib1618: having only reached the +50 level today2015-09-17 16:38:07 fib1618: this lack of leadership by the broad market2015-09-17 16:38:16 fib1618: and especially that of the interest rate sensitive issues2015-09-17 16:38:21 rite01: Yes2015-09-17 16:38:33 fib1618: continues to flash a caution sign toward the market in general2015-09-17 16:38:41 fib1618: but at the same time2015-09-17 16:39:24 fib1618: we have now improved enough to where our signal of last week that the August lows were likely to hold moving forward is carrying a heavier weighting2015-09-17 16:39:44 rite01: + divergent day for MCO means2015-09-17 16:40:03 fib1618: let's also note that today's reading of +53 is higher than that of the mid July peak2015-09-17 16:40:44 fib1618: so, in essence, we now have enough of a push in money toward the buy side where any downside trend in prices is likely to be violated sooner than later2015-09-17 16:41:08 fib1618: well...the NYSE Composite did not pullback2015-09-17 16:41:12 fib1618: but the CO did2015-09-17 16:41:44 fib1618: so I guess we can go with the idea that there was better buying into these same interest rate sensitive issues today than that of the commons2015-09-17 16:42:07 fib1618: and that should translate to a better overall condition for the market moving forward IF we see this continue2015-09-17 16:42:34 rite01: with the XLF down big today?2015-09-17 16:42:46 fib1618: the zero line bounce on the breadth MCO's we also got on Tuesday was telling us that our blueprint from last week was being trashed2015-09-17 16:43:16 fib1618: and all we needed was for Wednesday to see some follow through and we can call the symmetrical triangle breakout as being "the real thing"2015-09-17 16:43:20 fib1618: and we got that as well2015-09-17 16:43:26 fib1618: again...remember2015-09-17 16:43:43 fib1618: we had some very high TRIN numbers prior to all this bottoming action2015-09-17 16:44:02 fib1618: and that we started to lose any upside momentum that resulted from this imbalance2015-09-17 16:44:10 fib1618: but something changed on Tuesday2015-09-17 16:44:28 fib1618: as big money was being put back to work2015-09-17 16:44:37 fib1618: first in the way of covering short positions2015-09-17 16:44:45 fib1618: and since we saw follow through2015-09-17 16:44:59 fib1618: we probably got the fresh buying that was needed to carry this forward2015-09-17 16:45:13 fib1618: hopefully we'll get the data to support this thesis as we move along2015-09-17 16:48:05 fib1618: in any event2015-09-17 16:48:46 fib1618: you can see the scope of the tremendous amount of money moving in now on the close up 21 day chart of the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM2015-09-17 16:48:54 fib1618: and as we touched upon on Tuesday2015-09-17 16:49:05 fib1618: that must be respected for what it implies2015-09-17 16:49:30 fib1618: small point change on the NASDAQ breadth MCO2015-09-17 16:49:46 fib1618: with a current reading of +502015-09-17 16:49:55 fib1618: so about the same level as the NYSE Composite2015-09-17 16:50:20 fib1618: but when we look at the NASDAQ Components2015-09-17 16:50:36 fib1618: we don't have our ideal confirmation of these current MCO highs2015-09-17 16:50:58 fib1618: so, technically, we remain in a corrective sequence2015-09-17 16:51:10 fib1618: which would also mean...a bear market rally2015-09-17 16:51:30 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor2015-09-17 16:51:57 fib1618: and applying a line connecting the March and July price bottoms2015-09-17 16:52:20 fib1618: and we see that the intraday price reversal took place on the completion of the snapback to this line or previous support2015-09-17 16:52:35 fib1618: so...we're minimally "overbought" now on this MCO2015-09-17 16:52:43 fib1618: found snapback resistance2015-09-17 16:53:10 fib1618: and wound up with a simple reversal price bar2015-09-17 16:53:25 fib1618: some would call a point of exhaustion2015-09-17 16:53:29 fib1618: and intraday today2015-09-17 16:53:39 fib1618: we saw that happen pretty much after the Fed statement2015-09-17 16:53:48 fib1618: as the market held around unchanged2015-09-17 16:53:55 fib1618: moved slightly negative2015-09-17 16:54:04 fib1618: and then reversed to unchanged2015-09-17 16:54:15 fib1618: and if were holding a short position at that stage2015-09-17 16:54:28 fib1618: you KNOW that it's time so say "see you later"2015-09-17 16:54:34 fib1618: and zoom...up we went2015-09-17 16:54:42 fib1618: and once that exhausted itself2015-09-17 16:54:59 fib1618: the vacuum that was created by this "too far, too fast" sequence was quickly filled2015-09-17 16:55:28 fib1618: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM again2015-09-17 16:55:40 fib1618: and we're about to also move back above the -500 level2015-09-17 16:55:47 fib1618: and at the same time2015-09-17 16:56:12 fib1618: we took out the horizontal highs of mid August right before the plug was pulled2015-09-17 16:56:21 fib1618: so...overall...very constructive2015-09-17 16:56:33 fib1618: but there's still work to do before the buyers can breath easier2015-09-17 16:56:37 fib1618: moving to the NDX2015-09-17 16:56:54 fib1618: and here we peaked out on Wednesday at a +852015-09-17 16:57:18 fib1618: so we moved to highly "overbought" before pulling back a bit today2015-09-17 16:57:30 fib1618: so far...looks like a blow off as we suspected on Tuesday2015-09-17 16:58:06 fib1618: but with the NDX breadth MCO and components both above their zero lines2015-09-17 16:58:42 fib1618: what is likely to happen is that we'll now see a snapback to test the line of the breakout we saw on Tuesday of the symmetrical triangle2015-09-17 16:58:54 fib1618: and then another attempt to add on to the last couple of days of action2015-09-17 16:59:14 fib1618: that gives us a downside play of around 43252015-09-17 16:59:33 fib1618: or about 60 points from here2015-09-17 16:59:43 fib1618: and we would still be in a bullish configuration of sorts2015-09-17 16:59:57 fib1618: curious on how prices reacted with the EMA's2015-09-17 16:59:58 fib1618: let me bring up a chart so I can look at it2015-09-17 17:00:45 fib1618: well...the NDX actually moved above the last of its EMA resistance levels on the 50 day EMA today2015-09-17 17:01:02 fib1618: and then we closed one point below this same EMA2015-09-17 17:01:14 fib1618: so a bit of resistance is holding there2015-09-17 17:01:18 fib1618: let me check the NASDAQ2015-09-17 17:01:31 fib1618: same thing2015-09-17 17:01:49 fib1618: but we closed some 13 points below the 50 day EMA2015-09-17 17:02:04 fib1618: the 50 day EMA, remember, is our intermediate term moving average2015-09-17 17:02:29 fib1618: so it would be this EMA that would dictate price direction for this same time period2015-09-17 17:02:42 fib1618: so far...the short term 20 day EMA has been nicely violated2015-09-17 17:02:49 fib1618: so the buyers have control there2015-09-17 17:03:07 fib1618: and that's not too surprising based on the readings we've been seeing in the MCO2015-09-17 17:03:28 fib1618: looking at the NYA2015-09-17 17:03:34 fib1618: and we didn't come close to the 50 day EMA today2015-09-17 17:03:54 fib1618: so we have price divergence between the two exchanges2015-09-17 17:04:15 fib1618: and that's worth a couple of days of back and fill at the very least2015-09-17 17:04:37 fib1618: technically though2015-09-17 17:04:52 fib1618: until the rising bottoms lines that are controlling all of the MCO's are broken2015-09-17 17:05:01 fib1618: we have to give a tip of the TW cap to the bulls2015-09-17 17:05:33 fib1618: although the context of their current strength is much different than that of earlier this year when the A/D and U/D lines were rising2015-09-17 17:06:01 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO peaked out at a +73 on Wednesday2015-09-17 17:06:21 fib1618: but that wasn't enough to take out the highs of mid July at +772015-09-17 17:06:43 fib1618: looking at the EMA's here2015-09-17 17:07:13 fib1618: and the intraday highs today were at 2020.862015-09-17 17:07:24 fib1618: and the 50 day EMA is at 2019.782015-09-17 17:07:33 fib1618: so once again there's your resistance2015-09-17 17:07:51 fib1618: we also closed below yesterday's settlement2015-09-17 17:08:01 fib1618: and that usually means we have another down close coming2015-09-17 17:08:21 fib1618: the 20 day EMA is at 1979.702015-09-17 17:08:49 fib1618: and we'll call the snapback point to the triangle at 19602015-09-17 17:09:04 fib1618: with the volatility still quite high here2015-09-17 17:09:15 fib1618: we could see a quick run intraday to the snapback point2015-09-17 17:09:24 fib1618: and then close at or near 19802015-09-17 17:09:29 fib1618: whew!2015-09-17 17:09:37 fib1618: lots of action is great2015-09-17 17:09:47 thespookyone: OH YEA2015-09-17 17:09:49 fib1618: as long as you're nimble enough to close without hesitation2015-09-17 17:10:03 fib1618: "hit and run"2015-09-17 17:10:25 fib1618: again...this volatility is likely to continue for the rest of the month2015-09-17 17:10:36 thespookyone: I've been trading options on some stocks both ways, when I sell the call, I buy the put2015-09-17 17:10:41 fib1618: so keep this in mind as you pick and choose your spots2015-09-17 17:10:55 fib1618: I'm too old for that these days 2015-09-17 17:11:39 fib1618: but I understand that you have to build up your utilities on your islands to make them habitable 2015-09-17 17:11:53 thespookyone: LOL2015-09-17 17:12:00 fib1618: seriously though2015-09-17 17:12:16 fib1618: you really need a plan and concentration with this kind of whipsawing that we're seeing2015-09-17 17:12:38 fib1618: go in looking for 5 points...and bank2015-09-17 17:12:45 fib1618: even if it goes to 102015-09-17 17:12:46 thespookyone: yes, and super quick reactions2015-09-17 17:12:49 fib1618: and then you reverse2015-09-17 17:12:56 fib1618: you really do2015-09-17 17:13:02 thespookyone: yep!2015-09-17 17:13:17 fib1618: I guess if was staring at the screen all day I would do the same thing2015-09-17 17:13:19 fib1618: 2015-09-17 17:13:26 thespookyone: you bet2015-09-17 17:13:39 fib1618: anyway2015-09-17 17:13:47 fib1618: nice pattern of bottoms in the MCO to work with now2015-09-17 17:14:01 fib1618: and again I want to point out the "texture" of this pattern2015-09-17 17:14:26 fib1618: how it tested high...tested low...and seemed to find indecision between both sides at the zero line2015-09-17 17:14:59 fib1618: and once the zero line was successfully tested again, the buyers were able to go back to controlling direction2015-09-17 17:15:25 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO also came up short of the July highs2015-09-17 17:15:55 fib1618: the Dow though did make a new high2015-09-17 17:16:02 fib1618: why is this bothering me?2015-09-17 17:16:31 fib1618: there's something not quite right here...and I can't put my finger on it2015-09-17 17:16:48 fib1618: true...we had all the ingredients of a potential bottom before the breakout2015-09-17 17:17:01 fib1618: and the MCO's are supporting bottoms above bottoms2015-09-17 17:17:19 fib1618: maybe it's the lack of the 5% showing strength here (?)2015-09-17 17:17:34 fib1618: even the BETS is back to neutral2015-09-17 17:17:43 fib1618: something "smells"...something is not kosher2015-09-17 17:18:20 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO moved to new 9 month highs on Wednesday2015-09-17 17:18:23 unc1998: Could we be in a B wave?2015-09-17 17:18:28 rite01: spidy sense?2015-09-17 17:18:35 fib1618: and that should be enough to break above the longer term declining tops line in the MID breadth MCSUM2015-09-17 17:18:45 fib1618: well...the B wave was the triangle2015-09-17 17:18:49 fib1618: this would be a C2015-09-17 17:19:02 unc1998: maybe a (c) of B?2015-09-17 17:19:15 fib1618: but we're getting more and more data now that this is getting closer to a 3rd wave structure2015-09-17 17:19:24 fib1618: could be2015-09-17 17:19:30 fib1618: "A" would peak with the MCO though2015-09-17 17:19:48 fib1618: "B" comes out of the blue (like today2015-09-17 17:19:55 fib1618: and then "C" divergences2015-09-17 17:19:55 thespookyone: problem for me is, on individual stocks, I don't see the patterns as motive2015-09-17 17:19:57 fib1618: now2015-09-17 17:20:03 fib1618: remember2015-09-17 17:20:09 fib1618: wave C will be 5 waves2015-09-17 17:20:30 fib1618: and what were sharing here is a larger complex C2015-09-17 17:20:37 unc1998: yep2015-09-17 17:20:47 fib1618: the EMA's are showing good resistance too2015-09-17 17:20:56 fib1618: but they are also compressing2015-09-17 17:21:24 fib1618: back to the MID breadth MCSUM2015-09-17 17:21:50 fib1618: and we finished today at the declining tops line connecting the July and August tops2015-09-17 17:22:10 fib1618: sentiment at the bottoms was also pretty negative too2015-09-17 17:22:16 fib1618: so...2015-09-17 17:22:24 fib1618: we have to be open to the possibility that2015-09-17 17:22:37 fib1618: the symmetrical triangle was maybe a series of 1's and 2's as well2015-09-17 17:22:48 fib1618: but we would need to see further upside follow through by Monday to confirm this2015-09-17 17:23:06 fib1618: this would include the following2015-09-17 17:23:50 fib1618: prices would have to continue to slice through the 20, 50, and 200 day EMA's2015-09-17 17:23:53 fib1618: and more importantly2015-09-17 17:24:09 fib1618: we would need to see all of the MCO's move above Wednesday's high point2015-09-17 17:24:13 fib1618: if we can do that2015-09-17 17:24:26 fib1618: then we will have left behind a very important price low at the end of August2015-09-17 17:24:38 fib1618: and that new all time price highs will be seen2015-09-17 17:24:46 fib1618: now...2015-09-17 17:24:59 fib1618: how IS the market going to react to "no cut" today2015-09-17 17:25:35 fib1618: do we go back to our old ways of letting the supply of cheap money push the demand of owning stocks to new highs?2015-09-17 17:25:37 fib1618: OR2015-09-17 17:26:30 fib1618: does the market understand that without a rate hike means that the economy is nowhere stable enough to keep stock prices from moving higher2015-09-17 17:26:32 fib1618: and we sell off2015-09-17 17:26:41 fib1618: one thing we're pretty sure of now2015-09-17 17:26:50 fib1618: is that the 8/24-8/25 lows will likely hold on any challenge2015-09-17 17:27:37 fib1618: unless there is something unintentional happens to put the proverbial thumb on the scale2015-09-17 17:27:46 rite01: Not stable enough is my take as well2015-09-17 17:27:49 fib1618: in any event2015-09-17 17:27:58 fib1618: if the BETS goes to cash this weekend2015-09-17 17:28:02 fib1618: I won't argue2015-09-17 17:28:27 fib1618: also keep in mind when you look at the daily chart2015-09-17 17:29:01 fib1618: that until we break below the October 2014 price lows2015-09-17 17:29:13 fib1618: we still have bottoms above bottoms in play here on the longer term time frame2015-09-17 17:29:32 fib1618: we had a TRIN of over FIVE with this shake out2015-09-17 17:29:48 fib1618: and like we talked about when this happened2015-09-17 17:30:02 fib1618: many believe something like this would be a kick off of a bear market2015-09-17 17:30:08 fib1618: but the opposite is usually true2015-09-17 17:30:26 fib1618: it's sort of like when the volume MCO's move to deeply "oversold" levels2015-09-17 17:30:58 fib1618: this tells us that the great majority have sold and we usually see very important price bottoms come out of this2015-09-17 17:31:05 fib1618: this time seems to be no different2015-09-17 17:31:12 fib1618: and maybe2015-09-17 17:31:15 fib1618: just maybe2015-09-17 17:31:26 fib1618: we have put too much emphasis on the BETS here2015-09-17 17:31:42 fib1618: where 40% of its weighting has to do with Canadian issues2015-09-17 17:32:14 fib1618: and they have been having a real tough time because of commodities being disseminated over the last year2015-09-17 17:32:27 fib1618: just trying to be forthright2015-09-17 17:32:35 fib1618: and learn from this2015-09-17 17:32:38 fib1618: we'll see2015-09-17 17:32:52 fib1618: small point change on the SML breadth MCO2015-09-17 17:33:05 fib1618: as it peaked out at the +67 level2015-09-17 17:33:10 fib1618: and that's pretty high2015-09-17 17:33:32 fib1618: in fact2015-09-17 17:33:44 fib1618: it's the highest reading since December of 20142015-09-17 17:34:05 fib1618: what's bugging me here?2015-09-17 17:34:28 fib1618: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO2015-09-17 17:34:50 fib1618: but the components are not supporting the +51 reading2015-09-17 17:34:54 fib1618: so...2015-09-17 17:35:14 fib1618: we have a mixed picture of the breadth MCO's and their components2015-09-17 17:35:41 fib1618: we see that the NYSE Composite, NASDAQ Composite and Wilshire 5000 all at the +50 level2015-09-17 17:35:58 fib1618: along with prices showing sharp intraday declines at the end of the day2015-09-17 17:36:24 fib1618: the most likely outcome would be for some kind of digestion period over the next couple of days2015-09-17 17:37:00 fib1618: with a bearish bias in an attempt to provide a technical snapback to the recent price breakouts of our triangle configurations2015-09-17 17:37:16 fib1618: what looked suspicious on Tuesday2015-09-17 17:37:54 fib1618: got the necessary upside follow through on Wednesday to let us know that the break to the north was the real thing2015-09-17 17:37:58 fib1618: because of this2015-09-17 17:38:14 fib1618: we can let off of our fully defensive posture for the time being2015-09-17 17:38:29 fib1618: and as long as the rising bottoms lines on the breadth MCO's remain intact2015-09-17 17:38:48 fib1618: we can hold our nose and still be selective buyers at this stage2015-09-17 17:39:12 fib1618: while keeping very tight stops in place until we see a more uniform breakout above the EMA's on the index price charts2015-09-17 17:39:17 fib1618: let's see how the sectors are doing2015-09-17 17:39:46 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO saw resistance at +53 on Wednesday2015-09-17 17:40:23 fib1618: the XLP breadth MCO got to a +852015-09-17 17:40:37 fib1618: again...you can't fade something like this as not being important2015-09-17 17:41:08 fib1618: as we suspected last week2015-09-17 17:41:27 fib1618: the XLE breadth MCO is indeed working on a complex bullish structure right now2015-09-17 17:41:46 fib1618: and this has pushed the XLE breadth MCSUM to reach our target of -10002015-09-17 17:42:15 fib1618: BTW2015-09-17 17:42:24 fib1618: I just went back and checked2015-09-17 17:42:39 fib1618: and the OEX, Dow, MID and SML all reversed at or near their 50 day EMA's today2015-09-17 17:42:49 fib1618: so that's the bear's line in the sand it would seem for now2015-09-17 17:43:03 fib1618: back to the XLE2015-09-17 17:43:21 fib1618: and we still see that the components have yet to move above their zero lines2015-09-17 17:43:38 fib1618: so all of this is just an attempt to build a tradable bottom in this sector2015-09-17 17:43:46 fib1618: and there's not enough here to work with on the short side either2015-09-17 17:43:54 fib1618: so let's continue to stand aside there2015-09-17 17:44:16 fib1618: the XLF breadth MCO peaked out at a +752015-09-17 17:44:49 fib1618: and the XLF breadth MCSUM is now close to finishing a simple snapback up to its zero line2015-09-17 17:45:17 fib1618: interesting to note though2015-09-17 17:45:29 fib1618: that the price pattern has yet to move above the late August highs2015-09-17 17:45:57 fib1618: so not a real keen situation there2015-09-17 17:46:27 fib1618: and after throwing the XLV to the dogs last week2015-09-17 17:46:33 fib1618: it's made a remarkable recovery2015-09-17 17:46:55 fib1618: as we moved above the MCO zero line last Friday2015-09-17 17:47:06 fib1618: had a successful test on Monday2015-09-17 17:47:14 fib1618: and haven't looked back2015-09-17 17:47:51 fib1618: could be just a snapback to what was trendline price support2015-09-17 17:48:05 fib1618: too risky near term to make a call2015-09-17 17:48:18 fib1618: but it's been an impressive week2015-09-17 17:49:06 fib1618: the XLI breadth MCO challenged the mid July highs on Wednesday2015-09-17 17:49:12 fib1618: and took a break in the action today2015-09-17 17:50:10 fib1618: still a lot of work still yet to be done before we can see the worse is behind us there2015-09-17 17:50:30 fib1618: the XLB data looks solidly corrective2015-09-17 17:50:41 fib1618: with the XLB breadth MCO above its zero line2015-09-17 17:50:49 fib1618: while the components remain below theirs2015-09-17 17:51:29 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCO got to a +90 yesterday2015-09-17 17:51:38 fib1618: that's a nice sign of strength...or short covering 2015-09-17 17:52:03 fib1618: and we moved up and through the -250 level today on the XLK breadth MCSUM2015-09-17 17:52:46 fib1618: you have to wonder what it's going to take for speculative option buyers to stop trying to make a killing in the market on front month "out of the money" put options2015-09-17 17:53:02 fib1618: they have to be really depressed this time around2015-09-17 17:53:44 fib1618: and we're back to a strong buy signal again on the XLU2015-09-17 17:54:18 fib1618: as the XLU breadth MCO, and its components, are showing good strength here2015-09-17 17:54:27 thespookyone: there was over 550 million dollars short on those options had to hurt "a bit"2015-09-17 17:54:36 fib1618: as we see that this support came in just below the +500 level2015-09-17 17:54:44 fib1618: man oh man2015-09-17 17:55:02 fib1618: and it was such a sure thing...this time for sure2015-09-17 17:55:20 thespookyone: they kept adding, every day-it kept me honest2015-09-17 17:55:30 fib1618: anyway2015-09-17 17:55:47 fib1618: with the XLU breadth MCSUM now turning higher2015-09-17 17:56:11 fib1618: there's a good probability that we'll see higher price highs above the peaks seen in mid August2015-09-17 17:56:33 fib1618: but you know how it is...once bitten, twice shy there2015-09-17 17:57:07 fib1618: I don't know...I would want more information on this one2015-09-17 17:57:11 fib1618: but at the same2015-09-17 17:57:23 fib1618: it wouldn't hurt to go long with a trailing stop either2015-09-17 17:57:47 fib1618: so...2015-09-17 17:57:56 fib1618: not as much of a mess as last week2015-09-17 17:58:15 fib1618: as we're starting to get indications that a tradable bottom is coming soon...if not already2015-09-17 17:59:01 fib1618: but there's still some...well...let's call them inconsistencies...that still need to be sorted before we can switch hats2015-09-17 17:59:16 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's and TRIN's are doing2015-09-17 17:59:53 fib1618: CVI's are easing off now2015-09-17 18:00:00 fib1618: STVO's though are now "overbought"2015-09-17 18:00:10 fib1618: VTO's are mixed to neutral2015-09-17 18:00:35 fib1618: but having the STVO's "overbought" suggests that we have 2-3 days of back and fill coming near term2015-09-17 18:00:58 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.762015-09-17 18:01:01 fib1618: hmmmm2015-09-17 18:01:23 fib1618: Open 10 at .962015-09-17 18:01:33 fib1618: let me check Wednesday's reading2015-09-17 18:01:56 fib1618: .852015-09-17 18:02:06 fib1618: so it got mighty close to being "overbought" before today's action2015-09-17 18:02:28 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.132015-09-17 18:02:43 fib1618: Open 10 at .942015-09-17 18:02:57 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.382015-09-17 18:03:07 fib1618: Open 10 at .952015-09-17 18:03:31 fib1618: so the Open 10's are closer to "oversold" than they are to neutral2015-09-17 18:03:54 fib1618: and that should help in keeping prices from declining in any important way short term2015-09-17 18:03:55 fib1618: so...2015-09-17 18:04:08 fib1618: the market seems to have turned a corner here2015-09-17 18:04:32 fib1618: but the lights are out on the street2015-09-17 18:04:44 fib1618: and we're missing some clarity because of it2015-09-17 18:05:08 fib1618: sort of like losing your glasses and trying to squint out what what's in front of you2015-09-17 18:05:12 fib1618: for now2015-09-17 18:05:40 fib1618: let's ease off of any bearish biases we might had at the beginning of the week2015-09-17 18:06:24 fib1618: and take a more "balanced" altitude as we look for continued improvement over the next few days2015-09-17 18:06:32 fib1618: still...2015-09-17 18:06:44 fib1618: I just can't put my finger on it2015-09-17 18:07:06 fib1618: but I have this sense that some sort of trap is being laid2015-09-17 18:07:12 fib1618: but once sprong2015-09-17 18:07:24 fib1618: we should be good to go for a early October buy2015-09-17 18:07:30 fib1618: anything else?2015-09-17 18:08:08 fib1618: anyone have a feel here?2015-09-17 18:08:22 thespookyone: mine mirrors yours2015-09-17 18:08:36 fib1618: good...I'm not alone2015-09-17 18:08:38 fib1618: 2015-09-17 18:08:42 thespookyone: nope2015-09-17 18:08:56 fib1618: if we continue to gain strength here2015-09-17 18:09:03 fib1618: we're going to have a powerful rally2015-09-17 18:09:19 fib1618: as long as the FED remains accomodative2015-09-17 18:09:24 fib1618: things should be fine2015-09-17 18:09:27 fib1618: let's watch gold over the next few days for additional clues2015-09-17 18:09:29 fib1618: in fact2015-09-17 18:09:47 fib1618: that was the tip off today that there wasn't likely to be a rate hike2015-09-17 18:09:56 fib1618: as the yellow metal rallied $202015-09-17 18:10:20 fib1618: and gold is our indicator as far as how much cheap money there is out there2015-09-17 18:10:47 fib1618: can't wait for the BETS number this weekend2015-09-17 18:11:11 fib1618: I would be very surprised if we remain neutral2015-09-17 18:11:54 fib1618: the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line will also be something to look at this weekend2015-09-17 18:12:06 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else2015-09-17 18:12:12 fib1618: I'm going to go home2015-09-17 18:12:18 fib1618: everyone have a great weekend2015-09-17 18:12:23 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday2015-09-17 18:12:24 fib1618: good night

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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