Tuesday, December 31, 2013

There are a number of components about the Cowboys offense as we reach the end of 2013 that can be examined as it pertains to a Week 17 winner-take-all matchup with Philadelphia (without their starting QB Tony Romo) that actually falls in line with the 2013 Cowboys that played 15 games before this (that all included their starting QB).
For instance, as we look carefully at how this offense functioned and accumulated points and yards, it is interesting to note that on 1st Down, the Cowboys ranked #2 in the entire league for efficiency. This means, that on 1st Downs, they had what are called "successful plays" (4 yards or more) over 53% of the time. Only New Orleans (53.6%) was slightly better and the rest of the league was worse. The league averaged 46% and playoff teams for 2013 averaged 48%. 1st Down - a down which we would argue is easily the Cowboys most balanced (which might be arguing the tallest dwarf) - is a down they were quite successful at, even more so than Denver.

On 2nd down, you might be surprised to learn that the Cowboys are again ranked #2 in the entire NFL. This time, the Denver Broncos were the one team in all of football that ranked higher, as Peyton Manning's offense converted 2nd downs into new 1st downs on 41.2% of occasions. The Cowboys were right there, though, with 36.7, where a league average is 31.2% and a team like the Baltimore Ravens sits 32nd at a pitiful 23%.

So, let's think about this for a moment. In a season where the Cowboys were 2nd in the entire NFL on 1st down and 2nd in the entire NFL on 2nd Downs, they still were near the bottom of the league in 10-play drives (29th), plays per scoring drive (29th), rushes + completions (29th), and maybe most notably, finished below league average in yards per game with just 341 yards per contest (the league averages 348 and playoff teams are at 377). How can this make sense? How can they do so well in early downs and distances, and yet underperform as an offense overall?

Well, you likely already know. Behold, 3rd Downs.

We have spent a lot of time on 3rd Downs this season, but, since it is commonly referred to as the "money" down in this sport, we must focus yet again. Because no matter how much time the Cowboys spent on it, they never really seemed to figure it out.

3rd Down is where you see the primary blitz looks. Yes, teams mix it up, but on early downs it is an ambush. On 3rd Down, it is telegraphed. There is no ambush. They break the defensive huddle and then line 7 across the line of scrimmage right in the QBs face. According to our numbers, here is how blitzing broke down across the 3 downs:

As you might expect, once you break it down by down and distance, it shoots up again. 3rd and long is now facing blitzes over 60% of the time. And as the season went along, they increased.

For the season, the Cowboys faced blitzes on 34% of all occasions, but in December, it shot up to 43%, including Green Bay and Philadelphia both bringing 20+ different blitzes. You could say the Eagles were blitzing Kyle Orton more because he is the backup, until you see that they blitzed Romo almost the same amount in Philadelphia in Week 7.

So, even though I figure you know the answers already, how did the Cowboys handle all of this pressure? Yet another 3-11 day on 3rd Downs. This locks their season performance in at 35% and ranked 25th in the NFL, tied with the juggernaut offensive attacks in Cleveland, Oakland, and Miami. That means there are actually 6 offenses in football who do worse on 3rd Down, but stop me when you see a great offense on this list: Kansas City, St Louis, Buffalo, New York Giants, Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville. Of the teams on this list of 10, you can see that only Kansas City figured out a way to fail at this metric and still continue their season into January.

Before we assume that there is more to this than blitz handling by the Cowboys, we should make sure it isn't 3rd and short that is hurting them. But on 3rd and less than 5, the Cowboys are up in the top half of the league on pretty much each distance. There is nothing abnormal about their ability to pick up 3rd and short or even 3rd and manageable.

But, 3rd and 6-9 to go? The Cowboys are 27th at 29.8% in a league where 35.7 is average and 38% is playoff average. And then 3rd and 10+ Dallas is at 17% where the league is at 19% and the playoff teams are at 20%.

These are small margins, but as you think about it, consider that you won't see full-out blitzing on 3rd and 3. But, 3rd and 8? Yes, sir. Dial it up again.

This was the theme constantly on Sunday night. Get the Cowboys into 3rd and 6+, unleash the hounds, and know that Orton is going to get the ball out to avoid a crucial sack. But, this smart, conservative approach is what beat the Cowboys on Sunday. They were not able to put enough drives together because they couldn't stay out of 3rd and long. When the blitz is coming, Orton hits the safe outlet. No trouble, yes. But, also, not success. And when Witten or Murray are 7 yards short of the sticks, on comes the punt team or Dan Bailey again.

In many ways, it is the story of the season, and perhaps the Cowboys offense in this era with Tony Romo and Jason Garrett at the helm. And this is also why judging your pass protection on sacks conceded can be very dangerous and misleading. The object of the game for an offense is not to avoid sacks, it is to score points. But, you can see the issues here. Beating the blitz is only done if you make them pay by punishing them with yards and points. If you are going to throw a 1-yard horizontal pass to avoid a blitz and thus concede to a punt, you are only encouraging them to do it again and again. Which the Eagles were happy to accommodate.

Let's look at some examples here - Warning: these may all look like the same play - they are not.

Here is the one right before halftime. 3rd and 10 and the Eagles blitz 7. The idea is that Beasley will be open because the single-high safety is actually responsible for him and will have to make a tackle before the sticks if Orton finds him, but Orton is just avoiding the sack and playing for a field goal. Safety first were his orders and he wasn't going to lose points at this critical juncture.

This is the one shot that had a chance. Early 3rd, 3rd and 8, and Orton is ready for the blitz and will try to give Dez a chance. He does, but young Boykin does a nice job of challenging an off-balance Bryant for the ball. This is exactly the way to beat the blitz, but you wonder if Orton could have thrown a more direct back shoulder fade (which would have required a better stance to throw before the free rusher gets to him) might have been the throw here. Eagles blitz 6.

This was after the turnover and the Cowboys had the ball at the 20. They simply must get 7 here and on 3rd and 9, here comes a 5-man fire zone blitz with the opposite edge rusher (98-Barwin) falling back into the flat to deal with Murray. Orton thought Barwin was coming and then Murray had a chance. But, with Barwin watching DeMarco, this never had a chance. Another demoralizing Field Goal.

And then this one. 6 man blitz, man to man everywhere. But, Orton sees the safety coming through the A-gap untouched (23-Chung) and unloads quickly to Witten who just never had much of a chance to lose his tackler, Brandon Graham. The Eagles have learned that if you run at Orton, he seldom will look to the sticks, but quickly check down and get the ball out. This is likely how you want a QB to play conservatively in a situation like this, but it certainly encourages the defense to turn the heat up even hotter.

They did burn the blitz later on the 4th down to Dez, but as you can see, this was a real theme in the game and frankly, for the season.STATS FOR WEEK 17 against PHILADELPHIA

Run-Pass

18-46

Starting Field Position

D30

1st Down Run-Pass

9-22

2nd Down Avg Distance to Go

7.60

2nd Down Run-Pass

7-13

3rd Down Avg Distance to Go

6.81

3rd/4th Down Run-Pass

2-11

3rd Down Conversions

3-11, 27%

PASSING CHARTS:

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday. Intern Tim has made some pleasing to the eye charts for us to see.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.

On passes just to Witten, here are the results. You can see those short and to the right leak-outs against pressure.

Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated.

SUMMARY: Next week, we will begin to sort through the season numbers by personnel groupings. But, surely, the objective going forward if we assume that the offense will stay the same is combining the things this offense is good at - and yes, I believe that the numbers continue to show that this offense is good at balanced offense. They did very well this season at running the football from under center and mixing pass and runs.

They must combine those attributes with things that must be improved upon from the category of "things they are not so good at" which to me, starts and stops with 3rd Downs. If we are to judge elite QBs with who can make their team move the chains the most, then the Cowboys need to figure out ways to put Tony Romo up in the class of the elite in this situation.

In many cases, the blitz is a self-fulfilling prophecy, in that the teams that face them the most are teams that do not deal with them well. The more you fail, the more it comes - conversely, the more you burn it - Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady (when he had Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski) face far fewer blitzes - the less you see.

The real question now turns to Romo's health. If I was playing the Cowboys, I would be considering a QB who has shown that he is attempting to avoid contact to preserve his aching body. This is not a compassionate league that sympathizes with a situation like this. Instead, it targets it. And therefore, a Romo who is trying to preserve his health may be making the wise decision for the big picture, but inviting even more pressure when he returns.

And that is why that this should be objective #1 moving forward. Even though this team did a nice job this season on 1st and 2nd down of staying out of 3rd and long, every team is going to have several a game they have to convert. How is that going to change in 2014?

Monday, December 30, 2013

And so ends another season on this treadmill of mediocrity at Valley Ranch…

It is different, in many respects, because this time the culprits are some who were not even part of the story just a year or two ago, with names like Monte Kiffin and Bill Callahan at the top of the list of people sitting on seats that may in fact be warming to hot. There are new coaches and players in the chairs of blame and some will be replaced and some will not.

But, in the end, as over 91,000 fans paid top dollar to witness the spectacle last night, it all wraps up the same exact way that 2012 and 2011 did before it, with a break-even record of 8-8 that will thoroughly frustrate even the most optimistic of fans that remain on board the Dallas Cowboys ship.

This franchise is doing something that in many ways is impossible in today's National Football League. In a league where parity and tightly-knit competition insures that teams will fluctuate every single year, the Cowboys are stuck in a rut that they cannot escape from, sitting in their spot in the standings as teams rise and fall all around them.

Amazingly, they are neither good enough to rise up and take that half-step up the leader board which would put them in the playoffs and make them re-evaluate just how far away they seem to be, but they are also not bad enough to fall down the standings into the true dregs of professional football and see themselves as failures that need to be dismissed en masse. It is particularly frustrating for anyone to make an argument in either extreme. This franchise is not utterly pitiful, as we can see examples of that all around them; but they are also not approaching acceptable by any metric (both by the franchise's gold standards, nor the normal expectations of a franchise in today's NFL).

And that is why on a morning like this one, given that I have been at this keyboard typing a "Morning After" summary for every Cowboys game going back years and years, I am almost speechless knowing that it must all be repeated again. Another few weeks of aftermath is coming where the public wants a significant change in the organization, ranging from the unrealistic hope that the owner/general manager/dictator steps aside, to something a bit more possible like yet another head coach finally being led to the public gallows. Then, whatever change happens (if any at all), we work our ways into the normal routine of the Senior Bowl, the NFL Playoffs (where surely we can rationalize some franchise who is going on a run being like the Cowboys in some way which will offer hope to how close this organization actually is if one play goes a little different and maybe Kyle Orton throws a slightly better pass to Miles Austin on the final drive).

That is followed by Super Bowl week, the NFL Combine, Free agency or as we call it in Dallas, "Contract restructuring season", then the NFL Draft, and the practices and camps start all over again. By that time, in May or June, the bitter taste of this 8-8 season that collapsed into another 1-3 December will be a bit fuzzy in the memory banks and we can discuss how great Tony Romo's back looks, how up to snuff some of these new draft picks appear, and a shiny new depth chart that is unaffected by injuries (hey, Tyrone Crawford is back!) as we head for Oxnard.

It is the merry-go-round of pro sports that we have all signed up for, and one that shows no signs of stopping around here as long as 91,000 of the Cowboys biggest loyalists fill that stadium at any price tag to watch the same episode as many times as they will be allowed to do so. If all they have to do is open the doors to sell out the largest stadium in pro football and if your loyalty is tied to the 30-year mortgage that you opened to be a part of Cowboys Stadium, then by my count, we have about 25 more years before we can expect that stadium not to be full on night's like that to show fan disapproval.

I didn't mean to depress you. Although, if I did (and your favorite team did not), then you clearly haven't been paying close attention to this team and therefore likely aren't even reading this in the first place.

But, this organization did it to you again, and in a normal setting, there is a steady balance between the organization's management and the feelings of the public to guarantee that the customers continue to come to the stadium and to leave their money there. But, once the franchise was able to get everyone to sign PSL agreements that ran through the 2038 season, they organized one of the most amazing deals with their adoring public that any corporation could ever dream of (aside from taxpayer-funded stadiums, of course) - they lost the incentive to please anyone but themselves.

So, before I spend time on the specifics of last night, I want to make sure it is in writing that there is not another situation in professional sports where the fan base is as powerless as this one and where a once-proud franchise needed significant and meaningful change at the top worse than this one. The long-term mediocrity that this organization has exhibited for almost 2 full decades now is laughable by almost any metric, and yet they cannot print tickets fast enough. The genius ability of Jerry Jones as a business man surely makes his pitiful performance as a football franchise architect possible. And what is worse, as the sole ruler on when his reign should end, you are his subjects who must hope that somehow as he ages, he improves despite not having a real incentive to strive to improve.

Sorry. But, Jerry Jones is the only person who can actually fix this and he also might be the only person who doesn't know it is broken. If given the choice, financial success is more important than football success to Jerry, than the Cowboys are exhibiting the results that he so desires. And that is why he may not consider this an unsuccessful season. The Cowboys' revenues will dwarf the rest of the league and in this sport, with a harsh salary cap, he is not allowed to spend those profits to fix this team's losing. He is allowed to enjoy the spoils of it without incentive to change.

Only once did Jones get a bit testy with the line of questioning late Sunday night. That was when he was asked if he gets embarrassed by the Cowboys’ results of late and how that’s shaped the national perspective of the once-proud franchise.

“I don’t know,” Jones fired back. “Would you get embarrassed if you were standing in this stadium? Seriously. The answer is no, not at all.”

Oh boy.

Now, there is no way to sveltely segue into the events of Game #16 from the 2013 season after that rant, but I must attempt to do so.

The Cowboys did many things on Sunday night that are worthy of your admiration, partly because the Eagles are unstoppable to most NFL defenses. Meanwhile, the Cowboys couldn't stop anyone all season, including quite a list of backup Quarterbacks, and somehow still were able to stop the Eagles in 2 different games.

In 2 game, the Cowboys allowed the Eagles just 27 total points. In the 14 other games for Chip Kelly and his offense, they averaged 29.6 points PER game. Also, only 4 times all season were the Eagles held below 400 yards. Twice, however, to Monte Kiffin and this defense made up of castaways and castaway understudies.

The Eagles only had 278 yards in that matchup in Philadelphia, and then followed it up with just 366 last night in Dallas. Given that they averaged 431 yards in the other 14 games, this is both unlikely and difficult to explain. In addition - or perhaps related - the pass rush schemes and strategies of the Cowboys front was able to trouble the Eagles any time they had to pass.

I am not trying to give the impression that the defense stopped the Eagles, but 24 points was a dream and the ability to use the Eagles punter 5 times, and another drive ended with a takeaway, and yet another ended with a turnover on downs means that the Cowboys were able to get 7 stops of this unstoppable force.

That had to be enough.

Meanwhile, when Dallas brought in Kyle Orton on a 3 year deal worth over $10 million, it was always with this game in mind. If you lose your QB for 2 months, you are screwed. But, if you lose him for 2-3 games, do you have a QB who can step in and put you in a position to win a crucial game?

In the case of Orton and Sunday night, it is clear that they believed he was that guy, and on the whole, he performed in a way that indicates that they weren't wrong. This was a game that looked winnable right until the final throw that was picked off when Orton threw behind Austin on yet another play that ended in the resting arms of an enemy defensive back.

The offense struggled all night because the running game was not as productive as it hinted it might have been early. And once the running game started getting backed up, then the 3rd and longs invited blitz after blitz, and Orton is certainly not going to hang in the pocket and roll the dice. Instead, he is getting the ball out quickly - usually to Witten or Murray in the flat, which means well short of the sticks and bring on the punting team more often that not.

But, there is every reason to believe that this was a 50/50 game that was highly winnable in the end. Like the Kansas City, Denver, Detroit, Minnesota, Giants, Green Bay, and even last week's Washington game, it would come down to making a play for or against after the 2-minute warning of the 4th Quarter. In those games, they did make enough plays in 3 of the 8 games, where a 4-4 record in those 8 games likely puts them in the playoffs.

That is the margin for error. Like the ball lost in the lights in 2011 to Miles or the fingertips of Dez landing out of bounds in 2012, the distance between the Cowboys and the NFC East divisional title is no wider than the width of a piece of paper.

And yet it exists.

Which is why we sit here on another Monday morning and wonder what it will take for the Cowboys to break out of this rut.

Surely, there are many that work tirelessly around the clock to get this right. Many players who have dedicated every moment of their football career to get the Cowboys over this hump. Many in the organization who believe that the gap can be bridged and soon.

But, for most, the distance between the time this franchise was a NFL power and now is growing and the memories are fading. The excitement level that was once reserved for their favorite football franchise has been redirected to other outlets and diversions. The hope is there, but not what it once was.

Meanwhile, Jerry Jones can only assume that the seats will be filled again in 2014, regardless of what he does this offseason.

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday. Intern Tim has made some pleasing to the eye charts for us to see.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.

Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated.

Our weekly look at how the Cowboys took advantage (or, often, didn’t take advantage) of their best offensive weapon. The whole series can be found here.

The term "must-win game" is certainly one that is is overused and misapplied these days, which you might think would lead to a diluting of the intensity of contests that actually fit that bill. Week 16 at Washington indicates that is not the case. Much attention has been paid to the final, game-winning drive the Cowboys offense put together with their season on the line, and rightfully so. Especially given the fact that we now know that march was engineered by a quarterback with a back so injured it would require season-ending surgery. However, the Dallas offense was below average to poor for most of the day, although we also now must consider how much of a factor Romo's health was there as well. Through the first three quarters, Romo was 8-15 for 86 yards, with 1 TD (which we will discuss in a moment), and 1 INT. In the final frame, Romo was 9-12 for 140 yards and the final, decisive touchdown. Again, given the information we have, incredible.

Dez Bryant was more of a factor in this game than he was in the Week 6 win over the Redskins, but not by much. In that first game, Jim Haslett elected to to provide DeAngelo Hall safety help on 16 of 27 routes Bryant ran, limiting Bryant to 5 catches on 8 targets for 36 yards. He was actually much more effective on those routes in which he was "double covered" than the 11 when he was left in single coverage, partially because that coverage often coincided with blitzes that were getting home before routes could properly develop. Let's see how Washington decided to play Dez this time around.

BRYANT AGAINST HELP DEFENSE

Route

Against Help

Targets

Comp.

Yards

Fade

4

1

1

31

Slant/Drag

1

1

0

0

13 Yd. Comeback

1

1

0

0

10-12 Yd. Stop

2

0

0

0

Corner

1

1

0

0

Dig

1

1

0

0

5-7 Yd. Stop

3

0

0

0

10-12 Yd. Out

0

0

0

0

Post

1

0

0

0

Screen Block

0

X

X

X

Screen

0

0

0

0

Double Move

0

0

0

0

14

5

1

31

BRYANT AGAINST NO HELP

Route

Against Help

Targets

Comp.

Yards

Fade

3

1

0

0 (+5 DEF HOLDING

Slant/Drag

3

1

0

0

13 Yd. Comeback

2

2

1

11

10-12 Yd. Stop

0

0

0

0

Corner

1

1

1

13

Dig

2

1

0

0

5-7 Yd. Stop

0

0

0

0

10-12 Yd. Out

0

0

0

0

Post

0

0

0

0

Screen Block

2

X

X

X

Screen

1

1

1

17

Double Move

1

0

0

0

15

7

3

41 (+5 DEF HOLDING)

A near 50/50 split. Hall was covering Bryant for much of this game, and again, did a really solid job of it. Dallas only tested the 'Skins deep with no safety help once, and got a defensive holding call out of that play. On average, Bryant is targeted about 10 times a game, so his 12 in this game is not extraordinary. However, for a 12 target day, this is a relatively sub-par return on investment. Romo missed a couple of times, and Bryant had one really bad drop on a dig route on which he had created separation and the throw was on target. In general, an average to below-average game for the Cowboys best offensive weapon. The running game was able to find some measure of success, though, which we should always remember is related to the way a team decides to cover Bryant.

Despite not having a great game, Bryant did make a couple of big plays that helped the Dallas offense do just enough to keep this team's playoffs hopes alive for another week. Both of our visuals this week come from the same second quarter drive. We will start with a play on which Bryant didn't necessarily have to do a ton, but one on which the design was executed perfectly and the desired results were achieved.

2nd Q - 6:08 - 2nd & 6 - WAS 46

After stalling on their previous drive, Dallas now trails Washington 7-6. As we have discussed many times before, the Cowboys do not use playaction near enough in general, as Romo ranks near the bottom of the league in every year that stat has been tracked. Certainly there are times when play fakes can't be leaned on (although no one has told the Eagles or Redskins this), and Washington's aggressive defense is adept at taking this element away from offenses. However, Dallas did dial it up a few times Sunday, and one of those calls lead to the completion we see below.

Dez is split out to the right with Jason Witten tight on the same side. Washington gives a two-safety look, with their corners playing seven yards off. Romo play fakes from the shotgun, which is something the Cowboys have started to do more of late. The safety doesn't really bite on the play fake, but it appears DeAngelo Hall does. Hall might just have straight cover two responsibilities, which would mean turning Bryant lose was the right play, as he needs to cover the flat. However, if that is the case, then the deep safety plays this very poorly by drifting to the middle of the field to help on Witten who is being covered man-to-man. Bryant stutter steps a little bit right when he gets level with Hall, which ties the whole concept together. Whether a blown coverage, a play design that simply matched up well with the called defense, or a combination of both, this was perfect execution all the way around. Romo slides right and steps up which allows him to drive this into the hole in the coverage rather than airing it out and hoping Bryant can get past the recovering safety (unlikely to be a completion given the angles).

That played worked out exactly as it was drawn up. Our second visual…did not.

2nd Q - 4:46 - 3rd & 9 - WAS 14

After that huge completion on the playaction deep ball, DeMarco Murray gained just a yard on first down, and an incompletion on a second down Dez target brought up 3rd and 9. In my view, a touchdown was absolutely necessary here. I have no data to back this up, but I think settling for a field goal on a drive when you complete a big play like the one above is more debilitating to the overall flow of your offense than kicking a field goal on a drive full of smaller gains. Either way, suffice to say that given the final score, every point was important.

From the gun, Romo has Bryant and Cole Beasley in a tight bunch alignment on the right side. The initial plan is a "levels" concept, with Bryant running the corner and Beasley running the quick out. The idea is for both receivers to make their break at the same time to create a split-second of confusion for the DBs, and that's exactly what happens. Both corners run with Bryant once the break is made, and Beasley is wide open for the first down. I'm fairly certain that if Romo does not get heavy pressure from the left side, he slides right and finds Beasley in the right flat. However, the pressure gets home, and it's time for magic tricks. Romo times his spin perfectly, which takes incredible guts because going too early would allow the defender to recover and change his angle. At the same time, Bryant looks back at his quarterback and knows he needs to adjust. However, not just any adjustment would do. There is a linebacker floating in the middle of the field near the goal line, and had Dez taken a more flat path, this would not have been a completion. I don't know if it was by accident, or if Bryant was really aware of the high-hole in the defense, but this is one of the better adjustments I've ever seen him make. The throw and the catch both take ridiculous skill, but it's the mental awareness that facilitated the throw and the catch that impress me more.

Now. Clearly, no one feels great about the Cowboys chances Sunday night without their quarterback available to do things like what you see above. However, Week 7 at Philadelphia was one of Bryant's biggest games of the season, and it was by far the most effective he has been attacking the middle of the field. 101 of his 110 yards came on digs, square-ins, slants, and drags. Save for the dig, those are not difficult throws to make. I do not think the Eagles have the secondary to slow Bryant down, plain and simple. They do, however, have the front seven to affect the pocket, so this game may come down to the Cowboys offensive line giving Kyle Orton enough time to let Bryant and Co. go to work. Bryant had 17 targets in that Week 7 win over the Eagles, tied for his season-high. For the Cowboys to realize their goal of winning this division, I think it takes the same type of focus on getting Bryant the ball in the middle of the field with room to run.

Friday, December 27, 2013

What is a splash play? Well, for purposes of this blog I believe a splash play will include the following: A sack, a pressure that forces a bad throw, and big hit on the QB, and a batted ball that may lead to an interception opportunity. Again, you can see how this leads to subjectivity, but a subjective breakdown is better than no breakdown at all, I have decided. In addition, a splash play will include tackles for loss, a big hit for a short gain, or a stop which is an open field tackle where a player is pulled down on 3rd down short of the marker because of an exceptional effort from a defender. An interception is clearly a splash play, but so is a defended pass that required a great effort. A major hit in the secondary could be a splash play, but I believe that the outcome of the play will determine that. Sorry, defensive backs, but standing over a guy who just caught a 15 yard pass because you think you hit him hard will not generally pass the test on this blog. So, stop doing it.

I am trying to be careful about handing out too many splash plays per game. I am trying to be picky, but too extreme in either direction. When I log a splash play, I will put time of the game on the chart so that if you want to review the same game and challenge my ruling, you are welcome to do so. Also, if multiple players deserve recognition on a single play, we will try to see that as well.

Basically, we are trying to assign a value to making plays on the defense. We don't want to just see sacks and interceptions. We want to see broader definitions of splash plays to assign credit to those who help the Cowboys get off the field in important situations. These rankings will not deduct for negative plays at this point. There are simply too many occasions where we are guessing, and for now, I want to avoid that for this particular idea.

A splash play is a play that makes a major difference in the game. And by keeping it all season long, we will see which defenders are play makers and which are simply warm bodies. We already have our thoughts on both categories, but let's see if we can dig a bit deeper and actually have numbers to back up our claims.

This segment of the defensive study is simply to find out how well the Cowboys are doing at getting pressure on the opposing QB. We have spent a good part of the offseason talking about Monte Kiffin's philosophy that, like so many of the great 4-3 schemes, is based on using blitz as a weapon, not a necessity. If you use the blitz as an ambush weapon that is always threatened but only used at the perfect times, you can often get free runs at the QB. If, on the other hand, you must use the blitz because your normal pressure is not getting it done, then the offense usually is waiting for you and prepared - so even 6 rushers don't accomplish much.

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

I will spare you the speech about how difficult it is to win
in the NFL – especially on the road in the division against arguably your most
hated rival.By now, if you read
what I write, either you disagree and offer a customary “meh, they are a 3-win
team” or you agree with me that horrible things happen on the road for merely
every team in pro football.The
Cowboys have had to scratch and claw this year for anything and everything this
season and you wouldn’t expect things to change at this point, right?

Clearly, my holiday schedule has burned me this morning, as
I planned on writing about the game against the Redskins and leave a look at
the Eagles for those who are not snowbound in a Wisconsin town, but the events
of Monday are certainly front and center now.Tony Romo’s status for Game #16 is now a central plot line
that must be addressed as well and we will attempt to visit about both this
morning before my wife scolds me for not really being on vacation if I am still
typing about football.

Let’s start with Sunday.I did not expect the Cowboys to win on Sunday going into the
game because I know that Jim Haslett and his defense has given the Cowboys fits
over the last several meetings with his endless array of blitzes and exotic
pass rushes.It isn’t just about
the blitzes in numbers, but it is the constant mental gymnastics that are
caused with his linebackers rushing from such close starting points that you
often have 7 players lined up across the line of scrimmage at the same
distance.Then, many times, 3 will
drop off, but you never know which 3 and this is what can allow for free
rushers to come through because of assignment confusion and they can still drop
up to 7 players in coverage which willl occasionally have a QB throw hit them
right in the numbers as he never expected them to be where they are.

If pass protection and blitz pickup is still the number one
kryptonite of this offense and Haslett seems to tailor his attack perfectly to
upset the Romo/Garrett attack, well then you can understand that once I factor
in the ineptitude of the defense – especially when Sean Lee is unavailable – it
seemed rather easy to offer some pessimism about this team’s ability to push
the season’s stakes ahead to the final week with a road win in Washington.

And, offensively, it did appear that the Redskins troubled
the Cowboys throughout the affair with a combo-platter of blitzes and pressures
that limited the Cowboys yardage to another pedestrian total that just barely
topped 300 yards on the game’s final play.But, that final play – all 10 yards of it – meant so much
that you can understand the team not caring about only 309 yards when they
hopped on the plane with 1 victory to show for their hard work.

If you consider that the first TD drive was just 3 yards
after a lovely Christmas gift from new and temporary return man Michael
Spurlock on his first touch with the organization, you really can see how
things were not very good for the offense from that point until the 4th
Quarter.

The 2nd drive ended because a free rusher was
bearing down on Romo and he had to unload the ball on 3rd and
long.The 3rd drive was
the rare 8 man blitz (something we have not seen in several years of tracking
the opponent’s blitz plans for the Cowboys) for a sack that brought on the punt
team again.Dallas then answered
the bell in the 4th drive with all heavy lifting performed by Romo,
DeMarco Murray for his huge run of 43 yards and then one of the best plays of
Romo’s career to stay alive under duress for long enough to deliver a touchdown
on a post to Dez Bryant late in the 2nd Quarter.

From there, the opening drive of the 2nd half
brought more pressure and shorter time in the pocket for Romo who then hit new
fullback Tyler Clutts in the flat for his first opportunity to touch the ball
as a Cowboy when a hit from Josh Wilson knocked the ball loose and the ball was
turned over.It was the worst
possible way to start the 2nd half by giving Washington life with a
short field and they immediately cashed it in for touchdown and the game was
back on.

Then, the very next drive showed promise until a back
shoulder fade to Dez appeared to lose all hope when Bryant slipped and the ball
that likely shouldn’t have been thrown anyway was now easily received by
Cowboys’ nemesis DeAngelo Hall for another giveaway.This, as expected, was also cashed in for a short-field
Touchdown and now a game that the Cowboys were steering all afternoon was
flipped with 2 turnovers and 2 touchdowns for Washington.

They had life, the stadium was rocking, and the Cowboys were
in trouble, down 20-14.

And now, with a 2nd half with composure slipping
away, the very next drive also would be marked under the failure heading as it
included an incompletion on 1st down to Dez against a blitz, an
incompletion on 2nd down to Dez against the blitz, and finally a
Ryan Kerrigan sack on a blitz that included a stunt and a big hit on Romo to
end the drive with a demoralizing punt with the game slipping away.

This, of course, is where you have to recognize that this is
very much a team sport that requires both sides of the ball (and special teams)
to pull their own weight and sometimes the weight of the other sides that are
underperforming.The much-maligned
defense has been struggling to do anything for the last several weeks and now
are in a spot where getting a stop is a rare occasion and worthy of
celebrations.The Redskins, with a
steady diet of Kirk Cousins to Pierre Garcon and Alfred Morris on the zone runs
were getting way too comfortable against the accommodating Dallas defense.

From the mid point of the 1st Quarter until early
4th, the Redskins had the ball 6 timed and scored on 5 of them with
the only unsuccessful drive being a missed throw to Santana Moss in the red
zone that Jeff Heath intercepted.But, all 6 drives either ended with points or with a trip to the red
zone.That is more of the same
from Chicago and Green Bay and when JJ Wilcox inexplicably piled on Moss late
in the 3rd to extend a Redskins drive that was dead, the unraveling
was underway again.A few plays
later, Washington kicks another field goal, and now, with the 4th
Quarter left, they are up 23-14 and the heartbeat of the season was certainly
lacking strength in Dallas.

But, the 4th Quarter contained many, many talking
points of note.First, on a 3rd
and 4 play to start the Cowboys 9th drive (and first that would be
successful since the Romo to Bryant TD way back in the 2nd Quarter),
Terrance Williams made a wonderful catch before being hit hard by Brandon
Meriweather on the sideline to move the chains.But, the big moment here is that Brian Orakpo injured his
groin as he pushed against Tyron Smith with little success and was lost for the
remainder of the contest.

Orakpo is a fantastic pass rusher and someone who is not
always available due to injury to Haslett, and I found his response to his
absence to be interesting.From
that injury until the end of the game, Haslett almost completely stopped
blitzing.In fact, on 9 of the
last 11 passes, there was only 4 men rushing and this is where the Cowboys were
successful through the air.

In fact,Romo
went 7 for 11 on those final 2 drives for 125 yards and a touchdown all with an
injury that occurred on the very first throw of that sequence.Romo was clearly hurt and unable to move
very well, and yet Haslett stopped blitzing him when his mobility and perhaps
his mental resolve to hold the ball and make a play would have been at its
worse.This combination of events
really requires explanation from a Redskins’ coaching staff that has befuddled
on a regular basis this season.

The best moment on the drive that ended with a Dan Bailey
chip shot was the play to Cole Beasley on 4th and 6 that went for 20
yards.Beasley has really
developed this season for a QB who has a history of only trusting those who he
believes has earned it, and Cole clearly has that trust to get opportunities on
so many big 3rd and 4th down situations.Dez and Romo just missed on a replay of
the 2nd Quarter Touchdown as the ball could have been better delivered
and better received so they settle for the kick and it is 23-17 with 6 minutes
to play.

The defense has had very few moments to scream about in
December, but their stops late are worth mentioning.Alfred Morris scored a touchdown with 3:41 to go in the 3rd
Quarter and at the moment had 19 carries for 83 yards for a powerful 4.37 yards
per carry.But, in the 4th
Quarter as the Redskins are trying to kill the game with the ground and pound
approach, they limited Morris to 5 carries for 5 yards.This was an unexpected and impressive
stand over the final quarter that saved the game for the Cowboys, mostly due to
forcing repeated 3rd and longs in the final quarter.One was extended by JJ Wilcox’s poor
judgment, but the others were all longer passes that resulted in one conversion
and 2 stops for the Dallas defense that all started with run stops on early
downs, with particular credit going to Nick Hayden who has not had much nice
said about him this season, but crashed through at a few critical times late.Orlando Scandrick’s play on Garcon on a
3rd and 6 brought on the punt team and set the table for another
do-or-die drive for Romo and his troops.

The best way to stay out of 3rd Downs when you
are very poor at converting them is to convert early, and on 2nd and
10 Romo hit Williams for 15 and then on the next 2nd and 10, it was
a double move and a huge 51 yard pass to Williams again over the top as Romo
and Williams went to work on Josh Wilson again and his slip made it all
possible.From there, a quick pass
to Dez Bryant put the ball inside the 5 with a 1st and goal with
2:16 to play.

1st down showed DeMarco barreling down to the
1.But, after the 2:00 warning, 2
consecutive plays showed that while the offensive line is improved, they are
not bullies and the interior of the Redskins DL, led by Chris Baker and Barry
Cofield, pushed back Ron Leary and Travis Frederick on consecutive plays – the
2nd of which caused the incredibly rare 9 yard loss as Murray was
perhaps too eager to fight and not accept his moderate loss in exchange for a
gigantic loss.

So, now it was down to one play.4th and goal from the 10.Again, Haslett, with the game on the
line allows Romo to only face a 4-man rush, perhaps playing the scenario out
that he cannot let Dez or Witten find any space on this 1 play that will decide
the game.And, dropping 7 worked
well for those targets in the endzone.Lucky for Romo, it did not account well for DeMarco who was in a
check-and-release posture and after chipping Kerrigan on Doug Free, Murray
received the ball at about the 4 and beat DeAngelo Hall to the pylon.

The play, like the 4th down to Beasley earlier,
was a play that required perfection or the game and season was over and Romo
delivered in a situation that took some intestinal fortitude and determination
with the cynical football world watching and waiting for another wave of
judgment on his entire body of work.

It was a very big win and like I said, one I didn’t really
expect.They now set themselves up
to play for the entire divisional title in a home matchup with the Eagles that
will also allow them to complete a season with divisional sweeps of all others
in the NFC East.The rarest of
divisional sweeps that would certainly determine the best team in this rather
mediocre division.

However, the complications of Monday make this a bit more
difficult to decipher as the status of Romo has been declared “out” by many
respected media members (with their inside sources).Now, I cannot help but be skeptical because I know Romo’s
reputation of staying in the action even when in intense pain and because the
media assured us Dez Bryant was out last year and he played through it.

I have no idea if Romo can play, but I certainly want him to
do exactly that.Kyle Orton should
provide reasonable play, but this team needs Romo to function at their best and
he needs this moment as well.

But, with the wildcards of Jerry Jones and Cowboys drama
swirling all week, we will have to wait all week to find out who is under
center on Sunday night with the world watching Arlington, Texas.