Maybe this means they cut bait on Brandon League, but that’s awful hopeful. Seems a lot more likely that with Jose Dominguez, Onelki Garcia, and Yimi Garcia already pushed back a peg, now this pushes back Withrow as well. Of course, that creates problems of its own considering Withrow became an important part of the pen down the stretch last year and performed admirably as a rookie (2.60 ERA/2.59 SIERA).

A trade remains an option, but anything regarding that is just speculation based on numbers since nothing has been said as yet. So while this makes sense from a depth perspective, it makes the Dodgers worse in the short-term if it means League and friends push out Withrow from the pen.

Mikitani is the one Japanese owner who strongly opposed the new agreement, and Wednesday suggested in an interview that he would not post Tanaka, who isn’t a free agent for two more years. “It’s a terrible deal for a Japanese owner,” says one MLB executive. “I don’t blame Mikitani.”

It just so happens that the 25-year old Tanaka is in the sites of the Yankees, Dodgers and other MLB teams interested in signing him. Because he will not be a free agent until after the 2015 season, he must be posted by Rakuten, and Mikitani Wednesday said, “I don’t intend to post him.”

That, of course, could change, but media in New York, Los Angeles, Texas and Seattle can put off researching that sixth game of the Japan Series, in which he threw 160 pitches in a loss to the Giants.

But that was last Wednesday, and since then the team has talked with Tanaka about his desires to go overseas.

Additionally, the question of whether he’ll be posted might be resolved soon, when Yozo Tachibana, President of the Rakuten Golden Eagles, visits the Winter Meetings.

The will-he-or-won’t-he question may find resolution in the next couple of days. Sources told Yahoo Sports that Yozo Tachibana, president of the Rakuten Golden Eagles, plans to arrive at the winter meetings here on Tuesday. His appearance may lend clarity to Rakuten’s plan of whether to accept a $20 million posting fee for the right-hander’s transfer to an MLB team this offseason or reject it and rob the pitching market of its jewel.

I still think the cleverest workaround is for a KBO team to negotiate a trade for Tanaka since the new posting system doesn’t apparently apply to the KBO. The KBO team would then post Tanaka and they would get a small percentage of the money for their troubles. Of course, that would require a lot of negotiation with the NPB, and it would piss off the MLB, but the MLB just shafted the NPB and KBO is probably next, so why not?

Another option is to do an under the table deal, where Tanaka agrees to send a percentage of his contract back to his team off the books. I don’t think it’s unrealistic to speculate on whether something like that could happen.

—–

On the Juan Uribe front, his other rumored suitors were apparently the Marlins and the White Sox, but there apparently wasn’t much from the White Sox’s end.

To use a Winter Meetings term, not hearing much traction on Uribe to White Sox rumor

In 2012, Wright posted a 3.72 ERA with the Dodgers and lowered that to 3.09 with the Rays in 2013. He’s literally put up the best peripherals of his career over the last two seasons (3.39/3.13 FIP), so there’s a solid middle reliever in there.

It needs to be mentioned, though, that he’s entering his age 39 season, and you have to wonder how much longer he can keep it up considering his lack of success prior to 2012.

—–

Controversial Japanese signing Takumi Numata made the trek to Dodger Stadium for an unknown reason.

https://twitter.com/TAKUMI_18_/status/410203284213739522

He almost looks like some random dude participating in a fantasy baseball camp in that picture. But anyway, after being banned for life by JABA, I figured he had signed by now, but maybe all the details only got worked out recently and he made his way over to ink the deal.

Either way, there has to be some confidence that he’ll be a Dodger in 2014 if he’s been invited over.

—–

23-year-old Cuban SS Aledmys Diaz is being pursued by the Dodgers, as his suspension for falsifying his age will lapse on Feb. 19 of next year, in time for the season.

Teams that had large presences at a recent Aledmys Diaz showcase in Mexico included Braves, Yankees, Giants, Dodgers, Blue Jays and Cards.

Paco Rodriguez, Alfredo Amezaga, and Peter Moylan, three Dodgers with shots at making the Opening Day roster, have withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic to focus on making the club.

With Scott Elbert rehabbing, Paco in particular is competing for the spot of left-handed reliever, though J.P. Howell would appear to be the front-runner there. Moylan is in the running for the bullpen as well, no matter how deep it is, simply due to the fact that he’s a veteran (see: Jamey Wright). Amezaga would appear to be a long-shot to make the outfield reserves on a team with such a high payroll, but the Dodgers don’t actually have a lot of options there, especially those who can play center field. Barring a trade, it basically boils down to him, Tony Gwynn Jr., Elian Herrera, and Jeremy Moore. In other words, hopefully there’s a trade.

Paco was slated to compete for Spain, Amezaga for Mexico, and Moylan for Australia, but at the risk of missing most of Spring Training, all three Dodgers on the roster bubble decided against participating. That leaves five Dodgers who are still in the WBC in Hanley Ramirez (Dominican Republic), Adrian Gonzalez (Mexico), Luis Cruz (Mexico), Nick Punto (Italy), and Ronald Belisario (Venezuela), none of whom figure to be in danger of losing spots.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Worst Overall Pitches

Shawn Tolleson – Sinker – .395 TAv

Mike MacDougal – Sinker – .342 TAv

Matt Guerrier – Fastball – .320 TAv

Relief pitchers have smaller sample sizes, so they are prone to fluctuations, but they have the advantage of appearing in short bursts and limiting their arsenal to only their best pitches.

I actually think he could benefit from throwing this more often because it’s a quality pitch. Not hanging it is a different story, but how is he supposed to learn command of it if he never uses it?

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

He’s the only reliever that qualified for this pitch, so I guess he’s technically the best and the worst, but considering his split was the second-most effective pitch by a reliever for the team in 2012, I’m pretty sure he gets a pass.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Best Overall Pitches

Randy Choate – Slider – .058 TAv

Brandon League – Splitter – .096 TAv

Ronald Belisario – Slider – .121 TAv

The first two pitches should come as no surprise given that they are basically what both pitchers make their money off of. However, Ronald Belisario’s slider? Really? Yeah, but I’m guessing that’s almost entirely based on how surprised hitters are to see it when they’re expecting nothing but 95-97 mph sinking fastballs.

—–

Best Individual Pitches

Fastball

Scott Elbert – .237 TAv

Javy Guerra – .256
Shawn Tolleson – .273
Matt Guerrier – .320

Ronald Belisario’s .082 was disqualified because I’m about 99% sure these pitches were simply identified incorrectly. In any case, I’m surprised by how the Dodgers have zero fireballing fastball relievers.

To have everybody know the pitch is coming and to still beat hitters with it is amazing.

Cutter

Kenley Jansen – .187 TAv

Javy Guerra – .208
Scott Elbert – .242
Jamey Wright – .258

Matt Guerrier actually had a .139, but he barely met the minimum and Kenley Jansen’s cutter is his main pitch and was still below .200, which is silly. Also, I’m biased and wanted to show that GIF. Deal with it.

Kenley Jansen entered 2012 as the set-up man with elite stuff, freed up to face the opponents’ best hitters should they be due up before the ninth inning. It was the perfect scenario, considering the closer role is a vastly overrated entity. Though Jansen was slotted correctly, he quickly found himself as the closer following some early struggles in that role by Javy Guerra.

Jansen closed 2012 with his third-straight dominant season, posting a 2.40 FIP and 1.81 SIERA while whiffing a magnificent 13.71/9 IP. He appeared in a career-high 65 games and 65 innings, and though he allowed a few more long-balls (six homers after three in 2011 and none in 2010), he more importantly cut down impressively on his free passes for a third consecutive campaign (5.00/4.36/3.05 per nine innings). Also of note is his continued ability to induce infield popups, which has always been excellent (16% in 2010 & 10.9% in 2011), as he reached a new career best in 2012 (19.4 IFFB%).

To put it another way, as infield popups are essentially as effective as strikeouts, Jansen “whiffed” roughly 60% of the hitters he faced in 2012. That is insane, obviously.

Though all has been well from a between-the-lines perspective, Jansen has seen his short career put in jeopardy multiple times due to a heart ailment that has afflicted him for parts of the 2011 regular season, Spring Training of 2012, and most recently the 2012 regular season. While Jansen has thankfully been able to return from all three bouts, the irregular heartbeat has been recurring, which is troublesome for his health and career prospects.

Jansen and the Dodgers have taken action though, as Kenley recently underwent heart surgery to correct the problem. All seems well thus far, as no complications from the surgery have been revealed, and all reports indicate he’ll be ready to go for 2013. He’ll recuperate for at least three months prior to resuming baseball activities, and with his electric stuff, fantastic ability to get hitters to swing-and-miss, and three straight seasons of improving WAR (1.1/1.3/1.9), the sky is the limit for the former backstop as he continues to refine his new craft.

Acquired for Leon Landry and Logan Bawcom, Brandon League arrived having been stripped of his closer duties in Seattle. His 2012 with the Mariners was a season typical of your average middle reliever, as League was fanning only 5.44 per nine while walking far too many (3.83/9 IP), and had a 3.45 FIP and 4.43 SIERA. I was against the trade when it happened and League did nothing to assuage my mind in his first few outings, as he was charged with six earned runs through his first seven games with Los Angeles.

League rebounded to end 2012 strongly though, allowing one earned run from August 21 on. His strikeout rate ticked up in LA to 8.89/9 IP, the highest it had been since 2009, though he walked even more at 4.61/9
IP. His new-found success was attributed to mechanical flaws that were corrected by Rick Honeycutt and his staff.

Whether that’s true and whether his success carries over into the future or not, the 29-year-old heads into free agency banking that teams will be looking at his recent performance over his career track record that consists of 6.71 K/9 IP, 3.10 BB/9 IP, a 3.81 FIP, and a WAR that’s eclipsed 1.0 twice.

After a time spent pretending to be Tony Montana, Ronald Belisario returned to the States and MLB in 2012. Following a 25-game suspension for violating baseball’s drug policy, Belisario made his season debut in early May and would go on to appear in a bullpen-high 68 games and 71 innings.

Belisario posted a 3.09 FIP and 2.80 SIERA, and after starting the year out-pitching his peripherals and shiny ERA, had a very good season after his year off. He fanned just shy of a batter per inning while walking 3.68 per nine and inducing a mess of ground balls (64.5 GB%), which resulted in just three homers allowed in ’12.

Belisario, after all of his troubles, is line for a nice raise from the $480,000 he made on a one-year deal in 2012. He qualified for Super Two status and is arbitration eligible, and he will be an integral part of the pen in 2013.

Javy Guerra entered 2012 as the Dodgers closer, though not the most talented reliever on the team, which is perfectly fine and is actually my preferred method of bullpen management. Following a rocky start and a liner to the head, Guerra was removed in favor of Jansen in early May.

After allowing eight earned runs in his first 14 games, which included three blown saves and a pair of losses, Guerra settled down before succumbing to a knee injury that ended his season in early September.

Though Guerra’s season is largely viewed as a failure by many, his 2012 was, in actuality, little different from his 2011 season. His strikeout rate increased (7.33/7.40), his HR/9 IP rate improved (0.39/0.20), and his FIP (3.30/3.34) and WAR remained stable (0.9/0.8).

Guerra’s “struggles” were two-fold. First, the self-inflicted portion: Guerra walked too many guys in 2012, as his BB/9 IP jumped from a high 3.47 to a terrible 4.60 per nine. That must be corrected for Javy to see more success. Second, his BABIP increased to .321 from .261. In other words, after getting lucky in 2011, 2012 saw that luck shift entirely the other way. There is almost certainly a happy medium, and in that place, Guerra is a solid contributor to the pen as a middle reliever.

After an excellent 2011 that ended with a new established role in the pen, Scott Elbert finished 2012 on the DL with an elbow injury that felled him from late August on. I wouldn’t be shocked if the elbow bothered him all year, as his numbers fell across the board.

Elbert struck out less per nine (9.18/7.99), gave up more homers (0.27/0.83), and saw a significant drop in FIP (2.73/3.80) and SIERA (3.23/3.76). The lefty also uncharacteristically struggled against his fellow southpaws in comparison with his 2011 success (.271/.342/.342/.684 after a .191/.267/.227/. 494 slash line the year before).

With Randy Choate a possibility to return if he and the club share a mutual interest, and young Paco Rodriguez emerging as another option, Elbert’s health and success in Spring Training will go a long way in determining his future with the club after years and years of injuries finally appeared to be behind him.

Shawn Tolleson, the club’s top relief prospect heading into 2012, got the call in early June before getting the Blake DeWitt treatment and shuffling between The Show and the minors. Though he moved around, he ended up appearing in 40 games and just under 40 innings.

Known for his swing-and-miss ability and domination of the minors, Tolleson whiffed 9.32/9 IP while posting a 4.08 FIP and 3.78 SIERA. He did struggle with his control at times, walking 4.78 per nine, and he allowed almost a homer per nine.

Five outings — in which he allowed between two and four runs in each — skewed the 24-year-old righty’s numbers a bit, though not as much as his massive struggles against the 68 lefties he faced, who hit a combined .316/.426/.471/.897 against the Texan. On the other side of the coin, Shawn was death to righties, holding them to a .152/.244/.207/.453 line.

Those lefty struggles not withstanding, the future is exceptionally bright for Clayton Kershaw‘s former teammate. Tolleson will have a prominent role in the pen going forward — whether that role begins at the outset of 2013 or not — and a young pen featuring Jansen/Tolleson/Rodriguez/Guerra should have fans excited.

Acquired in the Hanley Ramirez deal, Choate arrived with the reputation of a lefty specialist (.201/.278/.252/.530 career) and continued to dominate his brethren in 2012, limiting them to a .158/.243/.190/.433 slash line.

Though he held lefties down in 2012, Choate was mediocre overall after arriving, posting a 4.89 FIP, 4.16 SIERA, and a negative WAR (-0.1). Most troubling was his propensity for issuing free passes, to the tune of 6.08 per nine in his 36 appearances.

Just 21 and fresh out of college in the spring of 2012, Paco Rodriguez found himself in 11 games down the stretch and whiffed a very impressive 8.1 per nine over those 6.2 innings. He posted a 3.09 FIP and 4.17 SIERA — as well as a .143/.200/.133/.333 slash line against lefties — in his very small sample size of a career, and holds the distinction of being the first 2012 draftee to debut in The Show.

Rodriguez enters 2013 with just north of 25 professional innings under his belt, and could very likely open 2013 on the major-league roster. Paco’s immediate future hinges on Elbert’s health, the signing of some other free agent lefty specialist, and his 2013 Spring Training performance.

While he has stuff to improve upon (like his control), if he can solidify a spot in the pen he would provide the Dodgers with another lefty and a cheap bullpen option with a ton of upside.

Jamey Wright, who made the team out of Spring Training after signing a minor-league deal, surprised most with a solid campaign, surpassing expectations in his 66 appearances and 67.2 innings pitched.

Wright fanned 7.18 per nine while posting a 3.39 FIP and 3.15 SIERA. His splits were quite wacky all the way around, as he allowed southpaws to get on-base more, but righties knocked him around in terms of extra-base hits (.252/.365/.230/.595 versus LH & .283/.337/.329/.666 versus RH).

As alluded to above, Wright did struggle with his control, as he allowed around 4.0 BB/9. He did a great job, however, of keeping the ball in the park — 0.27 HR/9 — which saved him from those walks becoming more damaging. Hitters actually benefited from a bit of luck against him with a .324 BABIP, but Wright’s strong propensity for inducing ground balls (67.3%) and infield popups (12.0% IFFB) allowed him to escape his control problems relatively unscathed.

Having lived off minor-league deals, which he turned into major-league roster spots, for most of the past decade, Wright will head into 2012 — his age-38 season — with a strong likelihood of obtaining a major-league contract. Earning just under $1.5 million last year, Wright will probably receive a small raise, and the Dodgers could do a lot worse.

Odds & Ends

Matt Guerrier spent most of 2012 on the shelf with right elbow inflammation, but managed to return late in the season and appeared in 16 games totaling 14 innings. It did not go well. He pitched to a 6.31 FIP and 4.86 SIERA while walking seven, hitting a batter, and allowing a total of 16 baserunners, six earned runs, and 56 total bases against.

He has a year remaining — at $3.75 million — on the ridiculous three-year deal that Ned Colletti signed him to in late-2010. Whether he has a place in the bullpen though, considering the superior arms around him, is another story entirely.

—–

Josh Lindblom, prior to being dealt to Philadelphia in the Shane Victorino trade, struggled despite some solid peripherals following a breakout 2011. Though he struck out 8.12/9 IP while walking 3.40/9 IP, Lindblom put up a 5.07 FIP, though his SIERA was a fine 3.66.

What really killed him was the long-ball, as following a 2011 in which he didn’t allow a single homer in almost 30 innings, Josh was touched up for nine dingers before being traded.

—–

I honestly forgot Mike MacDougal was a Dodger in 2012, but he began the year on a ludicrous guaranteed one-year major-league deal. He quickly flamed out, lasting seven games and 5.2 innings too long. In that short time, he allowed 15 baserunners, five earned runs, and 32 total bases.

10:24pm: The 2016 vesting option can escalate from $7.5MM to $9MM based on games finished, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter). League can also earn an additional $500K per year based on games finished.

8:27pm: League’s option for 2016 is worth $7.5MM and will vest if he finishes 55 games in 2015, tweets Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

Not that worried about the option because I doubt it’s going to be a factor given the volatility of the position. Even if it does come into play, that means his contract to that point has been a rousing success, so I don’t see it as an issue.

League is a career 3.60 ERA and 3.81 FIP reliever, while the average reliever put up a 3.67 ERA and 3.79 FIP in 2012. Both his career strikeout and walk rates aren’t anything to write home about, clocking in a 6.71 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9. So there’s immediate concern there that he’s basically a solid, average reliever.

The upside is that he’s posted a 2.78 FIP in 2011 and a 3.19 FIP in 2012, but he has proven to be anything but consistent over his career, and his mechanics fade in and out seemingly at random, so choosing him as the guy to invest multiple years in seems like an iffy plan at best.

Factor in the recent history regarding relievers on multi-year deals, and it looks downright frightening.

Since 2009, when he became a full-time reliever, he has posted WAR totals of 0.7, 0.3, 1.1, and 1.0. So value-wise, the team is basically paying him like he’s about to have career years in all of 2013, 2014, and 2015.

Additionally, he struggles against lefties (.765 OPS LHB/.590 OPS RHB), which Jose Valverde showed could be a disaster in the making. It’s problematic if League is deployed as the closer, which Ned Colletti apparently plans to do, and Don Mattingly probably won’t be able to work around the platoon split because he isn’t exactly known as a keen bullpen strategist.

Hell, throw the statistics out of the window if you want. This is a guy who lost his job as a closer with the Mariners LAST YEAR, and now he’s being signed to hold onto the job for three years in the face of multiple pitchers who are already better than him.

And yeah, I’ve heard about the gigantic payroll and how overpaying him doesn’t matter and yadda yadda yadda. I’ll address those notions in a separate post, but for now I’ll just say that it’s hard for me to simply wish away the specifics of this contract in a bout of cognitive dissonance because I want to believe in the fairy tale that payroll efficiency doesn’t matter.

Look, he’ll probably be a fine reliever, just like Jamey Wright was in 2012 (seriously, I was wrong about him, compare the two in 2012), but unless something drastic changes in 2013, he’s not worth the money he’ll be getting, and I just continue to wonder when that trend catches up with the team.

In a surprising move late yesterday, the Dodgerstraded prospects Leon Landry and Logan Bawcom to the Mariners for Brandon League.

League, 29, is owed approximately $1.8MM for the rest of the season before becoming a free agent this winter. He’s pitched to a 3.63 ERA with 5.4 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 44 2/3 innings this year, plus his usual sky-high ground ball rate is down to just 46.9%. The Dodgers have lost Matt Guerrier and Todd Coffey to injury this season, so League will add some late-inning depth.

Landry, 22, is hitting .328/.358/.559 with eight homers and 15 triples in 376 plate appearances for Los Angeles’ High Class-A affiliate this season while spending most of his time in center field. Bawcom, a 23-year-old right-hander, owns a 2.03 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 48 2/3 relief innings split between Single-A and Double-A this year. Neither player ranked among the team’s top 30 prospects in Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook before the season.

Leon Landry wasn’t in my Prospect Rankings for 2012, but he was headed for a top 20 spot in 2013 prior to this deal happening. The leap comes as a result of his .328/.358/.559/.917 line at high-A and his defensive ability. His upside is probably as a fringy regular due to his poor plate discipline and lack of offensive tools, and I think he fits more as a reserve outfielder type in the majors.

Logan Bawcom wasn’t in my Prospect Rankings for 2012 either, but he too was headed there in 2013. He posted a 0.64 ERA with a 1.06 FIP in 14 innings at high-A, then followed that by posting a 2.60 ERA and 2.88 FIP in 34.2 innings at AA. He has command issues from time to time but has strikeout stuff that should play at advanced levels. Bawcom has a fastball that can sit in the mid-90s and a good sharp slider. He has the upside of a 7th inning guy and a floor that likely still has him as a bullpen contributor, both of which made him one of the arms I was talking about when I referred to relief arms as a system strength.

Brandon League comes to the Dodgers with a 3.63 ERA/3.43 FIP/4.40 xFIP/4.43 SIERA in 2012. After a career year in 2011, he has basically regressed to his career norms (3.69/3.88/3.64/3.34). He’s not without red flags though, as his 14.0 K% is his lowest since 2007 and his BB% is his highest since 2008. Essentially, he’s an above average bullpen guy who was once used as a closer.

—–

On its face, one has to wonder what the point of this trade was. After all, how much of an upgrade is he over Scott Elbert, Javy Guerra, Josh Lindblom, and company? Hell, Jamey Wright is having an equally quality year at the moment and it already pains me when he enters the game.

What I have to assume is that he was acquired because the Dodgers are on the verge of trading a reliever like Lindblom or Guerra in a deal for a pitcher/first baseman/outfielder. If not, while nothing will quite top the Octavio Dotel deal, this will likely go down as another complete waste of assets. Hell, even if a trade involving a reliever does occur, it’s still a mediocre deal to me. Quality starters rarely make much of a marginal value impact after the deadline, much less average relievers.

For me to even get to that point of acknowledging it as mediocre though, a reliever would have to be traded out of the bullpen for help elsewhere. Here’s hoping it’s for something worthwhile.

Guess you can’t stop Ned Colletti, you can only hope to contain him.

]]>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/07/dodgers-trade-analysis-leon-landry-logan-bawcom-for-brandon-league/feed/0Chad Billingsley will only miss one start, but will his replacement be Stephen Fife or John Ely?http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/07/chad-billingsley-will-only-miss-one-start-but-will-his-replacement-be-stephen-fife-or-john-ely/
http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/07/chad-billingsley-will-only-miss-one-start-but-will-his-replacement-be-stephen-fife-or-john-ely/#commentsTue, 17 Jul 2012 13:17:07 +0000http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=8246

After a scare the other day due to the results of his first MRI, which led to speculation that he could miss up to a year, Chad Billingsley‘s second MRI came back with much better news for him and the Dodgers.

Manager Don Mattingly said he doubts Tuesday’s starter will be Chad Billingsley, who took an MRI on Monday — his second in as many days — that revealed only inflammation in his sore elbow. Billingsley played catch before Monday’s game and said it went well.

Mattingly added the team was being cautious with scratching Billingsley from his scheduled start on Sunday. After Monday’s game, the manager said the team doesn’t want to push the panic button and feel forced to start Billingsley and risk further injury. Mattingly said he doesn’t foresee any time needed on the disabled list and expects Billingsley to miss just this one start.

But somebody has to start for him, so who will it be? Not Jamey Wright according to Don Mattingly, but Stephen Fife and John Ely seem like prime candidates to me.

A likely scenario would be the team calls up Fife to start Tuesday and sends down either Josh Wall or Shawn Tolleson, who pitched two innings in relief on Monday. Javy Guerra, who is expected back Tuesday or Wednesday from visiting his father in Mexico, would likely return from the bereavement list on Wednesday, when the team sends Fife back down after making the spot start.

It’s interesting that Ely isn’t even mentioned, despite the fact that he’s been by far the best pitcher at AAA for the Dodgers and has MLB experience. Of course, a large reason for the preference for Fife lies in his status on the 40-man roster, but I do wonder if there are other reasons at play.

A while back on True Blue LA, there was a since-deleted FanPost that got featured on the main page. It was from some area scout (or something like that) sharing information from a scouting meeting with Ned Colletti. In the FanPost, along with other solid insight, he mentioned Colletti’s dislike for Ely. Fife, on the other hand, was traded for by Colletti in what I still consider a confusing deal.

I mention this because Ely has a 3.22 ERA, 3.29 FIP, and 2.78 SIERA, whereas Fife is at 4.53, 3.91, and 4.37. It’s not like Fife’s a better prospect than Ely, nor does he have a plus arm, so I’m unsure why Ely merits zero attention in this case.

I understand the complication with the Dodgers 40-man roster, but it’s not like they are short on players who can be designated without worrying about: 1) hurting the team or 2) a team picking the player up.

I don’t quite understand why Chris Capuano gets an A basically for his ERA (actual performance) when he recognizes that he’s been fortunate. Yet the grade for Ted Lilly is primarily based on the fact that he was lucky. Same for Jamey Wright, who currently has a negative WAR on the basis of his actual results but gets a solid grade because of his peripherals.

I feel like it was harsh on Chad Billingsley on the basis of results versus peripherals and the fact that I don’t think expectations should have been so high. Same goes for Nate Eovaldi, because he posted a 4.35 FIP/4.80 xFIP/5.11 SIERA last year, so I’m not sure where the expectations were supposed to be at.

—–

FanGraphs: Twins GM Terry Ryan gave an interesting view on how their front office evaluates their scouts.

DL: How do go about evaluating your scouts?

TR: Well, they pretty much make that assessment pretty easy. When they send us their guys over the course of a couple years, you start to get a pretty good cross-section of what they’ve sent you. Now you can’t — a 31st-round draft choice that a scout signed, that’s pretty deep. How is he fitting in? Has he got a chance? Has he helped the organization get better? If a scout sends us guys that don’t want to get with the program too often, those are the types of guys that — each one of our scouts has a direct supervisor that’s in communication with him constantly. They’re the guys that funnel the information to that supervisor. Has he got his stuff in? Is he thorough? Does he got the medical? Does he got the signability? Is he taking me to see guys that don’t have a chance? Those are how you evaluate scouts. Usually the supervisor has the best grasp of what kind of scout we’ve got.

They also graduate into professional coverage. That’s when I start to get involved, because I read the reports daily. If their numbers and their verbal and their role don’t add up, they get calls. It doesn’t take too long to figure out “Listen, this guy doesn’t know what he’s doing. We better get him pointed in the right direction.” That’s how we evaluate scouts.

DL: Some fans are guilty of judging scouts only by who they signed, with no knowledge of who they recommended.

TR: We have their list, obviously. But there’s nothing more frustrating to have an area scout say, “I had him right there, but we didn’t get him.” Well, you didn’t have him in high enough, then. We don’t ever want to hear that. That’s an excuse. “Oh, I had all those guys in. We didn’t get any of them, but I had them in.” That’s protecting your hind side. That doesn’t work.

Not going to agree or disagree, but the interview provided insight into an aspect of things that I had not seen elsewhere.

Deadspin: Deadspin made GIFs of the strike three call of every umpire. Seriously.

It’s a relief because, as I discussed before, the bullpen was about to get crowded and moves were going to have to be made. The Dodgers could have gone the easy route, by demoting Josh Lindblom, but instead choose to keep their best pitchers around. Maybe a no-brainer in theory, but given the Dodgers history in practice, I was pleasantly surprised.

With that said, even Belisario’s future is in doubt when Matt Guerrier is ready to return. When Belisario last pitched in the MLB in 2010, he posted a 5.04 ERA, and he had a 7.71 ERA in the 4.1 innings he pitched in the minors this year. Granted, how well he’s throwing is more important than his performance at this juncture, but it’s not a stretch to say he could be the guy who goes for Guerrier in a couple of weeks.

Still though, even if that gets sorted, there’s the issue of whether Shawn Tolleson could help the club right now. Between three levels in 2011, he put up a 1.17 ERA with 105 strikeouts and 18 walks in 69 innings. In 2012, he has a 0.90 ERA at AA with 18 strikeouts and 3 walks. By all accounts, the scouting reports seem to hold up, and while he might not have closer stuff, he has 7th/8th inning guy written all over him, much like Lindblom did, which is more than I can say at this point for Jamey Wright and Todd Coffey.

Despite fan perception, the bullpen isn’t actually a problem area, as it’s been adequately middle of the road thus far. However, it can get better if the Dodgers want it to, and since they’ve shown a change in their process through keeping Lindblom around in favor of an ineffective veteran, I would hope they don’t show hesitation when it comes to Tolleson as well.

Dodgers reliever Matt Guerrier, signed in part to be the bullpen workhorse, was placed on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday because of right elbow flexor tendinitis.

Guerrier had an MRI, which revealed no issues with the ligament that leads to Tommy John surgery. He received a platelet-rich plasma injection, will rest for several days, then begin tossing.

The Dodgers called up left-hander Michael Antonini from Triple-A Albuquerque to replace Guerrier in the bullpen.

Michael Antonini was called up from AAA to replace Guerrier for a spell until Todd Coffey returns.

While this game can continue on for a bit, the Dodgers are going to have to cut somebody loose eventually. Especially with Ronald Belisarioon the way back.

Troubled Dodgers reliever Ronald Belisario will start a Minor League rehab assignment next week and is eligible to return from a 25-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball’s drug policy on May 4.

Belisario, however, is out of options and the Dodgers must decide if he’s ready to help the club on that date. If not, they cannot send him to the Minor Leagues unless he clears waivers, but he could be taken by another club.

With both Belisario and Guerrier due to return, that leaves the team with Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen, Guerrier, Scott Elbert, Belisario, Coffey, Mike MacDougal, Jamey Wright, and Josh Lindblom.

Out of that group, two guys have to go, because the Dodgers have a weak bench as it is, and carrying 13 pitchers is just asinine (if they do decide on that, I’ll be sure to have something to say about it).

One has to figure that Guerra, Jansen, Guerrier (big contract), Elbert (only lefty), and Belisario (otherwise why go through the headache?) are going to stick around. So that leaves Coffey, MacDougal, Wright, and Lindblom to battle it out for two spots. Unless Lindblom is struggling by then, he should be kept, which sets up tough decisions on two veteran relievers that were guaranteed contracts. And that situation doesn’t even account for Shawn Tolleson in AA, Josh Wall in AAA, and Michael Antonini in AAA. Much less the likes of Nate Eovaldi as a potential contributor and Rubby De La Rosa in a few months.

At some point, a significant decision is going to have to be made, so the Dodgers are only delaying the inevitable.

Whatever the case may be, I just hope the decision is made based on what’s best for the team and not because the GM decided that the best course of action was to go 12 to 14 deep in the bullpen and neglect depth (or starters) at three or four positions.

Basically, this move was made because they wanted to keep both Josh Lindblom and Jamey Wright. Still though, it’s amazing to me that they’d rather put Coffey on the DL than designate Wright, especially considering Lindblom is basically their seventh inning guy at this juncture.

Jansen’s velocity was also down, throwing between 89-91 MPH, hitting 92 on two pitches. But Mattingly didn’t sound worried.

“Kenley’s different. There have been times early on where he gets tentative or gets off kilter, and the ball doesn’t come out the same way. We’ll continue to pay attention to his mechanics. The ninth is different than the eighth, so we’ll pay attention to that too,” Mattingly said. “As long as Kenley is not hurt, then we’re not concerned.”

Tony Jackson of ESPN Los Angelesgot a quote from Jansen revealing that he’s been under the weather a bit, and he also talked to Rick Honeycutt, who echoed Mattingly’s lack of concern.

Jansen has been battling a mild case of flu in recent days, which could have accounted for the velocity drop.

“I’ve been battling the flu, but that’s not an excuse at all,” Jansen said. “You still have to make good pitches and keep us in the game and try to help the team win. That is what it’s all about.”

Both manager Don Mattingly and pitching coach Rick Honeycutt noticed the slight dropoff, but neither seemed alarmed by it. Honeycutt said it might have been due to the cold weather or illness.

Actually, sickness could explain it, though seeing is believing.

—–

Jayson Stark of ESPNhas a piece on the new ownership group of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and it warns that those expecting them to spend big may be sorely disappointed, primarily because that’s not Stan Kasten‘s style.

So do people within the industry see this man suddenly turning into a spend-a-holic who starts firing nine- and 10-year deals at whoever wants to take them? Heck, no.

“That’s not Stan Kasten’s M.O,” said one veteran agent. “I’m sure they’ll be a franchise that makes moves. But I’m also sure that when Stan makes decisions, it won’t be like the kind of decisions Mike Illitch makes.”

“When it looks like a sure thing, it ain’t,” said another prominent agent. “Look at the Nationals. Ted Lerner has more money than God, and look how long it took him to start handing out big contracts. And did he hand them out while Stan was there? No. It happened after he left. So I know everyone anticipates him spending wildly now. But I’m not so sure.”

So what can we learn from that history? Nobody in baseball has a better feel for that than Kasten’s longtime general manager in Atlanta, John Schuerholz.

“It’s fair to say this group is out to re-establish the great Dodger brand,” Schuerholz told Rumblings. “But how that translates into making decisions to spend big money on big-name free agents, I don’t think that’s automatic.”

Now would Schuerholz be surprised to see the Kasten/Magic Dodgers chasing the most ballyhooed free agents in the game? No, he “wouldn’t be surprised to see them do that,” he said.

“But I don’t think they’ll do it every day,” Schuerholz said. “I don’t think they’ll do it all the time. What I’m sure they’ll do is what Stan has always tried to do — build a rock-solid organization and build it largely around homegrown talent. And at the same time, I’m sure he won’t shy away from the right free agent. But I underline the word, ‘right.'”

“I don’t think Stan rolls the dice at anything,” Schuerholz said. “I don’t think he’s ever rolled the dice. Stan analyzes. He relies on his experience and his instincts … and he makes an analytical decision about what’s the right thing to do for the franchise.”

When Ted Lilly comes off the disabled list on Saturday, as all reports have indicated that he will, the Dodgers are going to have to make a roster decision.

The Dodgers face a tricky roster decision when Ted Lilly comes off of the disabled list to start on Saturday night.

Management kept Josh Lindblom as an eighth reliever to replace Lilly, but Lindblom has already shown his value by pitching two scoreless innings of long relief twice in the first four games of the season against San Diego.

The easy decision, of course, is to send down the guy with options and keep the veteran, but Josh Lindblom has been outstanding this year, and he was outstanding last year. Jamey Wright, on the other hand, has not been outstanding this year, and wasn’t ever outstanding before.

Lindblom figures to be at least a run better, if not two, than Wright in 2012, so if the team is serious about winning now, then they need to prove it.

The easy decision is to keep Wright, just like it was the easy decision to keep Lance Cormier. Let’s hope they make the decision that helps them win instead.

Up five runs to none in the bottom of the fifth inning, starter Chris Capuano was struggling mightily with his control. After getting a strikeout to begin the frame, he gave up a single, a walk, got a force out, and then walked the next two batters.

Now most managers would let their starter try to get the last out of the fifth inning in this scenario because of the vaunted pitcher win, but it’s an inherently stupid thing to let influence decision making since it’s a meaningless statistic, especially when the game is on the line.

As such, Mattingly made the right call by pulling Capuano, who had been iffy with his control all day (even by his own admission in the post-game interview), but negated that decision by bringing in Jamey Wright, who was essentially the last man to make an eight-man bullpen out of Spring Training.

If Jansen or Coffey or something do that, I can live with it. Wright is going to be in like independent league in 15 days.

That one out is the highest leverage situation of the game (or will lead to it) because it either keeps the game at a four-run lead or it starts a chain reaction that implodes the game for the Dodgers. As such, it’s a perfect opportunity to use Kenley Jansen, probably the best reliever in the pen, But even if that’s too unconventional, why not veterans like Todd Coffey or Matt Guerrier? That’s what the Dodgers are paying them for, isn’t it?

The decision was half right, but half right is still wrong.

—–

In transaction news, Carlos Monasterios was released by the team yesterday.

The Dodgers have released right-hander Carlos Monasterios, who pitched in 32 games for them in 2010 but has since required two elbow operations.

Monasterios, 26, was a Rule 5 Draft pick who went 3-5 with a 4.38 ERA in 2010, when he started 13 games and spent the entire season in the Major Leagues. But after making one start at Triple-A last year, he required Tommy John elbow reconstruction and missed the rest of the season.

He encountered further arm problems after reporting to Spring Training this year and at the end of March underwent surgery to relocate the ulna nerve.

He looked to be solid front-end bullpen guy, long man, and spot starter, but injuries really derailed a potentially decent career.

MLB owners will vote on the three finalists, most likely Tuesday. Approval of all three is expected to be a formality.

Then what?

McCourt and his advisers hold a modified auction, behind closed doors, most likely starting Wednesday. The goal is to pick a winner this week and close the transaction by April 30, the day he must pay his ex-wife $131 million in a divorce settlement.

A relief to everybody involved, surely.

As far as the remaining bidders go, what about Stan Kroenke‘s involvement with the NFL?

If Kroenke buys the Dodgers, would he move the Rams back to L.A.?

Not right away, and maybe not ever. The NFL controls the Los Angeles market, so Kroenke would be in violation of the league’s cross-ownership rules as soon as he bought the Dodgers. The NFL let him transfer ownership of his two Denver teams to his son, but the league has declined to assure MLB that Kroenke could own the Dodgers and the Rams in separate markets, or that the Rams could move to L.A.

Kroenke would not need the Rams in L.A. to launch a regional sports network centered on the Dodgers. His Denver cable channel features the Nuggets and Avalanche.

The NFL has long coveted the Dodger Stadium parking lot as the site for a football stadium. However, the NFL would be reluctant to approve a stadium there if McCourt retained ownership of the property, according to a person familiar with the league’s thinking.

As a fan of the St. Louis Rams, this would be sort of awesome if it happens, but reading between the lines, it doesn’t seem all that likely.

Getting back to the bidders, Shaikin provides positive news on Steven Cohen.

If Cohen is a major player in hedge funds, how concerned is MLB about the ongoing federal investigation into insider trading in that industry?

Cohen was cleared in an MLB background check. Although four of his current or former employees have been accused of insider trading, neither Cohen nor his company has been charged or indicted.

Ron Geffner, a former federal prosecutor and securities investigator, said there can be no certainty about the results of an ongoing probe. However, he said, the investigation has gone on for several years, and the involvement of four of Cohen’s hundreds of employees does not in itself make a case against Cohen.

“If the government had a strong case, they would salivate at the opportunity to bring an action against a high-profile person,” said Geffner, a partner at the New York law firm Sadis and Goldberg.

Well that’s good news, given that he’s the favorite, according to everybody. Molly Knightincluded.

Jerry Sands, who followed up a huge September with a disappointing Spring Training, was optioned to the Minor Leagues by the Dodgers on Tuesday.

Although Sands sent a game-winning single through the hole at shortstop to give the Dodgers a 4-3 win over the White Sox on Monday, it raised his average only to .158. It was only his second RBI in 38 spring at-bats. He had 12 strikeouts and a .184 slugging percentage.

Josh Fields couldn’t be reached for comment as he is currently doing back flips.

Jamey Wright has been signed by the team to fill a bullpen spot, with Blake Hawksworth moving to the 60-day DL, and John Grabow exercising his out-clause.

The Dodgers on Tuesday confirmed the signing of non-roster pitcher Jamey Wright and created space on the 40-man roster by moving right-handed reliever Blake Hawksworth to the 60-day disabled list.

Hawksworth is recovering slowly from two operations — the initial one in January to clean out his right elbow and another three weeks later to address a staph infection.

The Dodgers guaranteed Wright’s contract having informed left-hander John Grabow, another non-roster invitee, that he would not make the club. He exercised an out clause Monday and was granted his release.

And pitcher Blake Hawksworth, who has missed all of Spring Training with an elbow infection following surgery, is likely to be placed on the 60-day emergency disabled list because he still hasn’t resumed a throwing program and will need at least six weeks to be game ready when he does.

John Grabow just thanked whatever god he prays to, because I think he may have just made the team, as the Dodgers have been pining for a second lefty in the pen since before Spring Training. Jamey Wright is another possibility, but I think* they keep Josh Lindblom instead.