Pac-12 football: Picks of the Week (critical game for UCLA and Neuheisel)

*** Quick injury update of potential significance to the North race: Stanford safety Delano Howell won’t play Saturday because of a hand injury (and will be evaluated on a week-to-week basis, according to a school spokesman). That means Cardinal is without two of its four best defensve players, Howell and linebacker Shayne Skov …

I touched on this topic yesterday but wanted to flush it out a bit:

Tonight’s duel in Tucson — the third consecutive Thursday night ESPN broadcast for the Pac-12, following two clunkers — is a bighuge momentous game for UCLA coach Rich Neuheisel.

(OK, maybe just huge.)

In pursuit of a bowl bid and facing a 1-5 team that has just been through the tumult of a mid-season coaching change, the Bruins have a golden opportunity to take full control of their postseason fate.

A loss wouldn’t mean the end of the Neuheisel era. But it would certainly be a step in that direction … perhaps a significant step … and here’s why:

The Bruins need three wins in their final six games to become bowl eligible. With a defeat tonight, they’d lose most of their margin for error.

The remaining schedule is as follows:

vs. Cal
vs. ASU
at Utah
vs. Colorado
at USC

Even with a gimme game (Colorado), three victories would be a difficult proposition for a team that has been blown out twice and claims as its best win a three-point escape, at home, against Washington State.

Essentially, a loss tonight puts the remainder of the UCLA season in a slowly tightening vise, with dark clouds gathering over the head coach’s office and an administration forced to confront a move it would rather not make.

Last week: 3-2-1Season: 24-20-1Five-star special: 4-3

All picks against the spread.Lines taken from vegasinsider.com

UCLA (plus-4) at ARIZONA (Thursday): Expecting Arizona to take out 11 months of frustration in first post-Stoops game. But given the state of the Wildcat offensive and defensive lines — UCLA should churn out plenty of yards on the ground — the best they can do is 7-10 point victory. Pick: Arizona.

WASHINGTON (plus-20) at STANFORD: Cardinal is 6-0 ATS the spread and hasn’t been challenged. It will be Saturday, but only for 45-50 minutes — at which point I expect Andrew Luck and his tight ends to take over. Even so, possibility of backdoor (last-minute) cover makes be wary of the number. Pick: Washington.

UTAH (plus-1) at CAL: Critical game for the Bears and matchup of two QBs trying to find their footing. Cal’s defense stops Utah more often than Utah’s defense stops Keenan Allen. Pick: Cal.

USC (plus-8.5) at NOTRE DAME: Too many points for the mediocre Irish pass defense to give Matt Barkley and Robert Woods. (Can’t get images of ND-Michigan fourth quarter out of my head.) Whatever the over/under is, I’d take the over. Pick: USC.

OREGON STATE (plus-2.5) at WASHINGTON STATE (in Seattle): WSU upset the Beavers last year and now in rare role as favorite in league game. (Oh, the pressure!) Have to give the edge to WSU if only because Beavers have given me no reason to believe in them. Pick: Washington State.

OREGON (minus-32.5) at COLORADO: I don’t expect to see LMJ and it doesn’t matter if Darron Thomas plays or not. Colorado’s injury situation has unfortunately reached ridiculous proportions. Pick: Oregon.

No it’s a big game because Neuheisel is 3-13 in PAC – 10 road games. The only teams he’s ever beaten at home were the 0-12 Husky squad in 2008, the 1-11 Washington State team in ’09, and Oregon State this year. The Bruins are never the best road team…but we used to win in places like Alabama and such. Not any more.

Tim

ESS EEE CEE

A more original interesting post please…. we are bored with your (less than) insightful comments. I’m sure you will enjoy watching Kentucky v Jasksonville State in a power matchup.

harold

I actually think you guys are misreading Ess Eee Cee. I don’t think he’s a real SEC fan but a guy needling Wilner, who called the SEC “big boy football” a couple of weeks back. Either way, it’s lost any humor it ever had, as has the whole Ess Eee Cee spelling thing.

mk92

pretty sure ESS EEE CEE is OT’s alter ego.

Pyperkub

Big game for the Bruins tonight. In and of itself it’s not much of a game, but as a bellweather for the rest of the season and the offseason it’s about as big as it gets.

This game is the true test of where the Bruins are this year and if Tresey (our new DC) can do the job. UCLA should win this game, but Arizona features the same quick passing game that Houston and others have carved us up with because we didn’t play tight enough, couldn’t tackle well enough, and couldn’t generate enough pressure with the under-performing front four. A win, and UCLA shows it might grow enough to be a realistic challenger for the Pac-12 south, or at least a bowl game. A loss, and we’re probably looking at maybe one more win all season, and a new coach going into next year.

Trojan4Ever

Why so much emphasis on wether ucla gets bowl eligible ? Who cares about teams going to bowls with a 6-6 or 7-5 record? We only care about teams going 9-3 or better.

Steve Jobs

Stanford doesn’t come close to covering the spread. In fact, they get a scare…

bruce

Screw the SEC!! Every single one of their slimy “programs” have cheated worse than Reggie Bush and USC EVER did! Since they’re all cash cows for the ncaa they get away with every last one of their shenanigans, you know, like Ohio State!

Tom McNamara

Pyperkub–

Our defense is going to struggle and we are going to run the ball. UCLA needs to stretch the field with a few long catches and rush unless they fall behind by two touchdowns or more. Defensively, Bruins need to play field position game religiously and focus on flushing Foles from the pocket so that he makes throws on the run and tries to force some balls that can become interceptions….

GriZz

This is why the NCAA Bowl season is now watered-down hot garbage. There’s tons meaningless boring bowls for .500 teams to stumble to every year… There are only a few non-BCS Bowls that are even worth watching now because of this.

UCLA, Cal, Utah, WSU, OSU, Zona, and Buffs are not good football teams — their mediocre to bad… Who cares what tacky, gimmick Bowl they get in? The fact that teams can be winless though half the conference season and can still be alive in a Bowl hunt is ridiculous. Wilner having to refer to EVERY Pac-12 game (even between cellar-dwellers) as a big “Critical” game with “Bowl Implications” — is a joke…

Something has to be done about the NCAA Bowl system. Some of these Bowls should be ended. It just allows marginal and bad programs and coaches to receive more credit than they deserve, like Jeff Braunford does every season for limping to the El Pollo Loco Bowl. These crappy Bowls are the equivalent to giving a Little League trophy to the losing team as well — just to make the kids feel better…

leftcoast

I’m curious to hear what the Utah folks think of the Pac 10 as they go through their first year. Are the fans and players enjoying the new away game destinations? How much different is the competition lever when compared with the Mountain West? Does the lack of “gimme” games equate to more of a grind for the team, more attrition through injuries, more difficulty being “up” for each game?

There was a lot of speculation on how the transition to a BCS conference would impact a high-flying bowl buster and this is our first chance to hear about the experience from a team that’s made the transition.

It would be interesting to hear from the Utah fans if any read this forum. Alternatively it might be a good topic for a future blog from Mr. Wilner. (And -hint, hint- this is the only week this season that Utah is headed to the Bay Area.)

bullship

Agree with the 6-6, 7-5 ‘ bowl’ teams being a yawner. But UCLA really should be winning 9+ games a year and challenging for a Pac 12 championship on a regular basis. I see no reason for nuehiesl to get anymore time- he is making Bob Toledo look good. All you Bruin fans need to remember the ( forget annoying broadcasters name here) fire and howland hire- best thing that happened to UCLA….they need to fire Rick and get a real coach….maybe on of Stanford’s assistants or something….

snarkk

All but about a half dozen of these bowls are nothing but money makers for the local bowl committees and their corrupt officials (hello Fiesta). Recent articles show that the schools barely, if at all, make any money on these “toilet bowls”, some even lose money when you factor in the required ticket sales. They’re nothing but fake validation for the coach’s resume and/or a check off of a contract provision that gives him extra dough, and another trip for the players with some fun stuff thrown in for them. If you’re team doesn’t make at least a “toilet bowl”, then you know your squad sucks and your coach is in hot water or on the termination train…

StanTheMan

@7

Stevie – Feel free to ask Siri what the score is around 8pm Saturday nght. You won’t like what you hear.

Stanford is going to poleaxe the Huskies. They haven’t beaten anyone that shows me they are substantially better than UCLA, and after Wisconsin obliterated Nebraska, that loss should no longer be considered a quality loss. Not a knock on the Huskies – I think UCLA is better than perceived. More of a statement about how big the gap is between Washington and Stanford, and why Stanford is going to easily cover the spread.

UCLA is so much better than Arizona it’s not funny. The only reason it might not be a double-digit win is that it’s in Tucson.

Give me the Utes and the one point, although it won’t be needed. I don’t think Utah’s defense will need to worry so much about stopping Allen. Maynard’s wayward arm will take care of that all by itself. All the Utes need to do is get a hand in his face and he will crumble, just like Riley.

De La Salle > OSU (and Colorado). WSU by double digits.

USC over ND straight up. The Fighting Amish will find a way to choke when the pressure’s on in a tight game.

Oregon minus any number is too little.

StanTheMan

@GriZz 10

It’s a free market. If a bowl organziation can make money bringing two .500 teams together, who are we to say no you can’t do that? Vote with your remote!

Pluto99

Leftcoast, what, you don’t think Utah is going to win the south and come to Palo alto for the ccg? Kidding aside, I remember a lot of ute fans predicting they were the favorite in the south and wouldn’t ne surprised by a rose bowl in the first year. My uncle, a Utah slum, made a abide remark over the summer how lucky Stanford was not to have them on the schedule but maybe the teams would meet in SLC for the ccg.I noticed a lot of arrogance from what was probably a vocal minority, though a net most fans in their hearts believed as well.

I predict the Utah issue will come up in November as voters justify dropping an undefeated BAY behind some one loss teams in the polls. Not that I believe that’s fair, as this is Utah’s best team, but I think it will come up.

Pluto99

Sorry for the typos. My Droid does some funky auto corrects.

Keith

I can understand not thinking that being bowl eligible (i.e. 6-6) is anything special. It’s not. I also understand being unhappy with the economics of crap bowl games that cost schools money to go to them. That sucks. But what I don’t understand is complaining about how too many bowls “waters down” the bowl season. I can’t imagine that anyone outside of the fan bases of the two teams involved would care about the Meineke Car Care Bowl, but so what. Those fans get to see their teams play one more time, against competition that they would otherwise never get to see. In the world of college football, I prefer seeing my team play more times, not less times. All the meaningful bowl games pitting good teams against each other don’t change.

GriZz

I get that corporate big wigs get rich off these games… And that its an opportunity for fan’s to see their team play one more game.

But what about the fact that many universities actually lose money going to these lower-tier Bowl games? It has been covered extensively in the media for the last few years, that outside of the major Bowl games many school’s end up getting stuck with bills due to unsold tickets and team and band travel arrangements etc. So some teams ending paying money for these mediocre bowls…

Apparently some fan’s are enthralled with seeing corporate big wigs fatten their pockets, and want to see little Timmy play one more game against a 6-6 team — but at the expense of costing your University? Maybe you can argue that the schools are paying for the Bowl as a marketing expense for the TV exposure…

But really in an epic budget crisis where professors, faculty, college courses, low-income scholarships etc, are being slashed — entire Universities hurting for funding — do fan’s really consider it worth it to pay for their football team’s, and band’s, and cheerleader’s trip to some meaningless Bowl every year???

gules rampant

Leftcoast,

I know you are trying to be nice and welcoming to Utah fans, but I have to echo Pluto 99’s comments. There were enough shrill and, frankly, ignorant posts from Ute fans preseason that I was surprised at the dumb-down effect they were having on this board.

Happily eating crow has kept their mouths busy since.

StanTheMan

Those universities CHOOSE to accept bowl invitations. They can also CHOOSE not to accept them.

If you think your alma mater is wasting money going to low-grade bowl games, then tell them to not go, and vote with your wallet – don’t donate money, don’t buy tickets to games, etc. etc.

StanTheMan

AZ up 14-0. I’m surprised and eating crow at this point. Oh well.

ESS EEE CEE

Utah is a fraud.

Yawn.

Slick Rick is a phony.

Yawn.

Tedford is a fake.

Yawn.

Again…

Pac 12 = Pee Wee Intramurals

ESS EEE CEE = where the BIG BOYS play

Pluto99

As is better than their record. But both these teams have sorry defenses.

GriZz

stantheman

You are correct. It is the responsibility of the individual schools and their fans. I will never spend a dime on a crap Bowl game, nor do I watch them so your preaching to the choir. But if schools “CHOOSE” to go, who exactly is doing the choosing? The AD? The team? The students? The Alum? I think if the entire University community really had an equal, informed choice whether or not to spend school funding on a meaningless Bowl game, as you imply, we would see less Bowl games…

My point was to address the fans implying that these bad Bowl games are “no big deal” and that people are wrong for having any issues with these games. I feel the vast majority of football fans are unaware of the fact the their schools maybe paying for these bowls… Also wouldn’t not going to a Bowl game (which your school has CHOSEN to accept) make the problem even worse by forcing the school to buy another unsold ticket?

GriZz

Jesus Christ UCLA is bad… Slick Rick is done.

Ute15

@Leftcoast

I know Utah players and fans alike are appreciating the change of scenery to the PAC-12. There really isn’t a whole lot of PAC-12 destinations that aren’t worthwhile. I would much rather be traveling to Southern Cal, Arizona, Washington, and Oregon than traveling to New Mexico, Colorado Springs and such. Obviously there is an increase in competition. I can’t really say that the “grind” has had much of an impact so far. Yes, Utah has had significant injuries including starting QB Jordan Wynn, Starting TE Dallin Rogers, star WR Devonte Christopher, and several other players. However, the majority of these, includuding Wynn, occurred early in the season ie. BYU and Washington games. So as of yet the “grind” hasn’t taken effect. Utah has had a tough stretch in the first part of the season. @USC, @BYU, UW, ASU, and then @ Pitt.

Overall I’ve really liked the destinations and the fans are great (for the most part). The PAC-12 has some real class.

As of expectations. The majority of Utah fans predicted a 7, maybe 8, win season. I don’t think that most Utah fans expected to be 0-3 in conference games at this point in the season. I don’t think that many Utah fans expected Washington to be the caliber of team they are nor get trounced in back-to-back conference games the way we did.

Still glad to be in the PAC-12 and hopefully Utah can turn their season into around and finish with 8 or 9 wins (Hopefully)

GriZz

Wow… What an embarrassment to a historical program like UCLA. Getting blown out, then midfield brawl? Wow. They’ve hit a new low.

bullship

42-7 at the half….

I don’t know if this more of a reflection of how bad Stoops was or….how bad is Neuhisel….

Rick should be fired tonight….I would not let him on the flight home…

Ucla was not ready to play and looks horrible.

Gauss

I still can’t understand how Arizona lost to Oregon State. Their first 4 losses were more or less expected, and they still scored a lot of points. But Oregon State! Come on, Foles & co, you should have shown them what you’re worth.

Tonight they’ve played flawless against a lousy UCLA (at half time).

To think that all computer rankings consider UCLA Stanford’s best win… that tells you something about the schedule Stanford has had so far!

stanfordfan

Stanford is the nation’s only team that is a perfect 6-0 against the spread this year. (Source: Sports Illustrated.) That means that zero SEC teams are a perfect 6-0 against the spread, Jon…

That proves an anti-Stanford bias… They don’t have the option of choosing tougher teams right now, but they have been taking care of business…

If you don’t think Stanford will cover…. Well, let’s see on Saturday…

Jacob Wang

Arizona 6 possessions, 6 TDs in 1st half. All long drives.

eric

StantheMan – please, please, please keep on picking!

Symphony Sid

“Even with a gimme game (Colorado)”

If CU has one chance to win on the road in the Pac this year, it’s at UCLA. Jon Embree worked for the Slickster at UCLA (I think Beinemy did too), and CU fans pretty much hate the Rickster for saying he wanted to be the Joe Paterno of CU football, then leaving the very next day for Seattle.

Circle that game, y’all. Could be fun.

BMan

@Grizz:

I don’t disagree w/ you about the lame bowls, but your logic would then apply to removing almost all football programs since the last time I read about it (admittedly 5 years ago or so) only about 10 football programs in the entire country actually made money.

Telrod

StanTheMoron (post#13) Your picks are as dumb as your posts. It’s suddenly occured to me that you haven’t seen your weeny in a long time…maybe years.

I still can’t believe we (WSU) lost to UCLA…they are really, really horrible…I hope they keep Ricky N. forever…and dropped all those passes against the mighty Cardinal…maybe, we can get well this week against the “powerless” OSU Beavers in Seattleville!!

GO COUGS!!…DAM THE BEAVERS AND RILEY!!

Todd

Notre Dame will bury USC. The Irish have been waiting for this game. A home night game! Wow! 38-20 maybe?

Woj

Last I checked Tedford is still coaching Cal and Maynard is the QB.
Gimme Utah.

Wilner needs to start an ‘end of TedFord era’ watch at Cal. It’s long overdue.

Neuheisel is to UCLA what Tedford has become to Cal. An overpaid head coach employed due to good results achieved long ago. Neuheisel got his results at Colorado, Tedford got his at Cal when the competitive bar was much lower 5+ years ago and Aaron Rodgers was Cal’s QB for 2 seasons.

BruinGuy

Thank god basketball season is close.

Its tough watching my team, rooting for them to stink so Neuheisel gets fired. Although, I have no confidence the next pick will be any better.

BruinGuy

Oh, and for you Cal fans that think Tedford is so bad…..you have no idea how low it can go. From where we are, Holmoe is a step up.

Telrod

BruinGuy, GREAT posts!!! We feel your pain.

Woj

BruinGuy – UCLA is my 2nd fav. team in the Pac12 after Cal. My sympathies.

I don’t rook for Cal to lose but know the losing will continue as long as the Tedfraud coaches Cal. I also expect routs every 2nd or 3rd game on the road.

But, cmon Holmoe is worse. The guy couldn’t get himself out of a carboard box let alone demo comptence coaching a major college football team.

That’s why it really irks me that tools still defending Tedfraud use Holmoe as a benchmark for comparison. He was the worst college coach I’ve ever seen so ANYONE looks competent next to him.

Tedford can recruit and those recruits can go onto great things in the NFL but the W/L results at Cal falls way short of the talent of his players- and that’s on him. This is not Cal being down cyclically. This is pernant if the HC remains in place.

Neuheisel had some good years at Colorado, Tedford did as well at Cal long ago, Holmoe never did.
Again even Stanford and USC Fans see the smoke and mirrors of Tedford and want change b/c they are going to continue beating up on the Bears with the disparity of coaching.