Projections and PredictionsThroughout the campaign, I used public polling data to project seat totals. The first set of projections, explaining the methodology, can be found here, with my final projections here. Other updates can be found here, here, and here. So how did I do? It was a missed bag. The NDP and Bloc projections were spot on but the final Liberal and Conservative totals were outside the margin of error. Still, when compared to the other projections and predictions being made, the model held up respectably:

4 Comments:

Perhaps the prediction and simulation model should also generate a list of close ridings where a 5% swing in the popular vote (likely outside of the MOE) would change results.

While the first predictions would still stand, you could produce a result for the alternate 1 time out of 20 with the other.

You could also add a system to weight turnout likelyhoods for different parties (since there seemed to be publicly available data on that too).

You could run a model then that showed if there was a divergence in results according to turnout (ie: does a lower turnout increase the proportion of tory vote) while predicting results based on a normal distribution of turnout lieklyhoods outside of the last observed turnout.