Now that qualifying for the Nov. 4 primary election is over, the field for Shreveport's next mayor is set with seven candidates.

Voters will have to decide if they want accountant Anna Marie Arpino, Shreveport City Councilman Sam Jenkins, political newcomer Victoria Provenza, former state education head Ollie Tyler, evangelist Melvin Gerard Slack Jr, state Rep. Patrick Williams or James "Jim" Crowley as the city's next mayor.

With qualifying over, local and statewide political pundits expect an uptick in political advertising, forums that could be used to evaluate candidates on a larger scale and polling to take place. Political observer and publisher of LaPolitics Weekly Jeremy Alford said mayoral candidates will attempt to have their messages heard in an election season saturated with races at every level of government, including a hotly-contested U.S. Senate race and a public service commission race that could turn into a brawl.

The candidate that prevails, political observers say, will be the one who finds a balance with voters while addressing key issues such as city management, finances and infrastructure.

And political observers such as Trey Gibson, a LSUS communications professor, and Alford say it's too early to name frontrunner. Each is certain Shreveport's mayoral race will be decided in December. But local observer and former Caddo District Attorney Paul Carmouche says Williams and Tyler may have an advantage, though, he too feels a runoff is inevitable because of the number of candidates in the race.

Fundraising and name recognition

Unknown candidates Arpino and Slack are expected to have a difficult time overcoming the political machines of high profile candidates such as Tyler and Williams, who began campaigning and fundraising well before qualifying, observers say.

Provenzajumped into the field before qualifying also, garnering some name recognition as she petitioned her way onto the ballot, which Alford noted with interest. But her grassroots and social media efforts may not be enough to propel her to victory, though the field is wide open, observers say.

"It's hard for a grassroots candidate in a city this size to catch on. It's going to be difficult, I mean it's impossible to go door-to-door in the entire city," Carmouche said. "Unless there's a lot of money to get name recognition, it's just very difficult."

Funding also will be key to running a successful campaign and give candidates an advantage in getting their message out, political observers say.

Williams and Tyler already have hosted fundraisers. Their billboards and campaign signs have been up for more than a month. Alford said Williams' position as a state representative puts him a unique spot to garner donations from special interests groups and lobbyists who can help finance a sophisticated campaign — though it's unclear if he sought money from those groups so far.

Jenkins, a long-time fixture on the political scene, likely can catch up with the other candidates but his late entry will mean having to overcome message saturation. Arpino and Slack will be challenged to do the same. Jenkins' initial indecisiveness about pursuing the seat, which put him behind Tyler, Provenza and Williams, may not have much of an impact at all, Alford said.

"With enough money and the right kind of people surrounding you and campaign, Jenkins will be a craft a message that can reach the voters though some view him as "wishy-washy," Alford siad.

"He has a lot of ground to make up. I don't think the indecision factor will be a major player in this race," he said. "I think he'll be able to confidently and safely say that he's qualified. He did make up his mind." After he confirmed his candidacy, Jenkins said his campaign had been working on and off before his announcement and was prepared to compete.

Alford said the prevailing candidate will find a way to resonate with the angst of city employees and their families while Gibson added that Republican voters are not represented in a field that includes four black Democrats and three white candidates who identify with no party or as "other."

The issues

Funding will help get their messages out, but candidates will still need to address key issues to prevail.

• City management and finances will be important in the upcoming election, the observers say

"The budget's going to be probably the main issue," Carmouche said. "And making sure that we have the funds to take care of our infrastructure. The streets are not in very good repair right now."

• Both Alford and Carmouche expect police and fire issues also to be a part of the narrative this campaign season.

• Recent headlines about fed-up city workers demanding better pay, equipment and work conditions also are expected to come to the forefront.

Candidates are going to have to come with a plan to make the city work better by addressing what Gibson refers to as "getting things done issues."

"A lot of people are more worried about the management of the city and who comes in with a plan to manage the city better," said Gibson, who added that candidates are going to have to do more than just declare that they can best run the city.

"The real issue is the how?" he said.

Glover a "wild card"

Current Mayor Cedric Glover could be a political "wild card" in the outcome of the upcoming election if he endorses a candidate, Alford said.

Glover, who is term limited, hasn't publicly endorsed anyone. But Carmouche believes the mayor has friends and supporters he can call on.

Alford claims Glover told him that he isn't shy about getting involved in political races and has endorsed candidates in the past. Glover could very well do the same thing again, he said.

And if he does, the question, Alford said, is how will an endorsement from Glover impact the election?

"You can't help but wonder whether he will be a boost on the ballot or a drag on the ballot," he said. "Whoever Glover endorses, wherever his name shows up in campaign finances, that candidate will automatically be labeled as the administration's pick."

more coverage

Find a complete listing of candidates who qualified to run for office in Bossier, Caddo, DeSoto and Webster parishes on pages 8A and 9A. You'll also find a listing of those candidates who are running unopposed and will automatically be named to office.