Updated Longterm Downtrend Cycles

An update of an older chart, changed a bit the cycles to integrate better in the chart structure and fib channel ratios. More about the chart can be read here

. The range of the cycle we are in now looks much more similar with the previous ones now and clearer with its downtrend line. If it gets broken, then this is not valid anymore. Good short oportunity in this range with SL in the 233-237 area and target in the low 100s.

Yes, because I expected a bigger buying pressure when breaking it, mentioned in the previous comment why that bullish event could have a bearish outcome. As I said, still in a bullish consolidation area.

The downtrend line from the top got broken, but imo it did not create the reaction I expected, I thought breaking it would create a first leg to at least 240s, and create lots of buying panic, breaking it was bullish but the reaction seems bearish to me. It is still in the bullish consolidation price range, but rising slowly on low volume without breaking 237 soon could break this rising wedge and the drawn uptrendline leading to increased selling volume and bring the price back to 220s.

On the daily we can see the previous high was tested, not breaking it means we are still in a clear downtrend, but interesting level opens out once 237 key level or the 240 high are broken, we can still have a bulltrap at 243-245, which on daily is our old friend fib channel line level which historcally proved to be a tough trendline to be broken as highlighted in the chart below, or 243-245 could also complete the bearish butterfly on 4h chart above.

All in all, these are some bearish scenarios after a bullish breakout of a downtrendline, as mentioned above, we are still in a bullish consolidation range on 4h chart, but its structure and price action so far and the daily chart (besides the way it broke out of the bearish trendline) seem bearish to me atm.

After it got in the bearish cycle again (previous horizontal line), completed the consolidation around the EMA which turned out bearish again at this reversal cycle as shown previously and broke an important level (230 served as solid support and resistance in the past when ranging in 210-250 area) to confirm the downtrend:

Longterm chart on the uptrend and downtrend fib channel s' lines shows the price positioning itself in the middle of this rhombus, after 0.236 level of downtrend fib channel got rejected once again; plenty of space either way: