Upper Hunter economic outlook good for farmers

While the number of people out of work in the Upper Hunter is set to rise over the next few months, economists says the situation is not as bad as it seems.

The Hunter Valley Research Foundation's economic indicators for the 2013 June quarter show the unemployment rate in the area has increased to nearly four per cent.

It says that will continue to grow as the mining boom winds down and the construction phase tails off.

But the Foundation's director of research Simon Deeming says while some people are struggling the economy is still doing better than it was a few years ago.

"But if you take a different perspective of it and think of relatively where we were pre the boom, the Hunter economy is still much bigger fundamentally," he said.

"So, if you think about the capital investment base you've got in the region, if you think about the employment-base you've got in the region, if you think about the skill levels they've got in the region if you think about generally the size of employment and generally the size of the market there, the economy fundamentally is much larger than it was pre-boom."

The economic indicators show conditions could be looking up for the Upper Hunter's farmers.

The June report outlines short-term productivity for the agriculture sector is poised to improve with forecasts of favourable rain.

Mr Deeming says the Upper Hunter's agricultural sector will do well over the next few months.

"The Bureau of Meteorology is saying that there's a 75 per cent chance of reasonable rainfall over the next few months.

"So what that implies is that people are going to be looking to stock up for cattle etc and therefore on the agricultural side of the equation things are looking relatively positive.