Audio 3:00
Research reveals climate change timeline

Stephanie SmailUpdated
Thu 10 Oct 2013, 8:57 AM AEDT

A new international climate change study shows unprecendented temperatures could hit the globe by as early as 2020. Researchers from the United States have pinpointed the year temperatures will hit historical highs in different parts of the world, including Australia.

Transcript

TIM PALMER: A new international climate change study shows unprecedented temperatures could regularly hit the globe by as early as 2020.

Researchers from the United States have pinpointed the year temperatures will hit historic highs in different parts of the world, including Australia.

Sydney would hit its new extreme climate in 2038, Brisbane four years after that, as Stephanie Smail reports.

STEPHANIE SMAIL: The world's new minimum temperature could be its old maximum within the next 40 years. That's according to University of Hawaii researcher Abby Frazier.

ABBY FRAZIER: The global average under the business as usual, we don't do anything, is 2047, so 2047. And if we are able to take aggressive action now to mitigate our CO2, that year gets pushed back to 2069.

STEPHANIE SMAIL: The University of Hawaii study used nearly 40 different climate modelling systems to work out when the world's temperatures will surpass those recorded over the past 150 years. Abby Frazier says it's the first research of its kind and the findings were a surprise.

ABBY FRAZIER: We took a very conservative approach to this whole study by using, you know, the absolutely min and max values and using all the possible models that are out there. You know, we didn't even think that this date won't even happen in the next century.

So we were really surprised that the 2047 was so early, I mean this is within our lifetimes, and even more surprised that even if we take action now, the 2069 is still happening within this century.

STEPHANIE SMAIL: The study found countries in the tropics like Indonesia could experience the so-called climate departure by as early as 2020.

Ryan Longman was also part of the research team. He says climate change in the tropics will have a ripple effect across the globe.

RYAN LONGMAN: Everybody will be affected if the biodiversity in the tropics is affected. That's where a majority of the world's biodiversity exists. And that includes coral reefs which are basically the habitat for fish populations. So any type of country that depends on fishing, if the reefs are in jeopardy and they can no longer be suitable habitats for fish, then you would definitely see those rippling effects on land.

STEPHANIE SMAIL: It's not all doom and gloom. The study also revealed efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could push back the temperature change by more than 20 years in some places.

Abby Frazier has outlined the potential difference in Australian cities.

ABBY FRAZIER: In Perth we expect, under the business as usual scenario, climate departure by the year 2042 and we can push that back to 2072 if we take mitigation action now.

In Sydney it's expected by 2038 and that will get pushed back to 2052 under a mitigation scenario.

Melbourne is 2045 under the business as usual or 2073 if we take action now.

STEPHANIE SMAIL: The research will be published in the journal Nature.