College Football Playoffs are coming into focus

By Samuel Chi

Updated 7:39 pm, Sunday, November 29, 2015

Photo: Tom Pennington, Getty Images

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STILLWATER, OK - NOVEMBER 28: Baker Mayfield #6 of the Oklahoma Sooners celebrates with fans after beating the Oklahoma State Cowboys 58-23 at Boone Pickens Stadium on November 28, 2015 in Stillwater, Oklahoma. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) less

STILLWATER, OK - NOVEMBER 28: Baker Mayfield #6 of the Oklahoma Sooners celebrates with fans after beating the Oklahoma State Cowboys 58-23 at Boone Pickens Stadium on November 28, 2015 in Stillwater, ... more

Photo: Tom Pennington, Getty Images

College Football Playoffs are coming into focus

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One crazy pig-sooie play might have saved Alabama’s bacon.

Remember that wild lateral on 4th-and-forever in overtime that Arkansas pulled off to keep the Nov. 7 game alive against Mississippi? By surviving that play and then beating the Rebels on a two-point conversion, the Hogs did the Crimson Tide — and the College Football Playoff selection committee — a huge favor.

Without that play, and that loss, Mississippi, not Alabama, would have won the SEC West and been set to play for the conference championship. The SEC title game would’ve featured two two-loss teams — with Florida having beaten Mississippi 38-10 this season — while Alabama stayed home.

Would the committee have had the guts to leave the Crimson Tide (and possibly the SEC entirely) out of the playoff because they failed to win their conference? Or would it have taken ’Bama because, well, it’s ’Bama, as the BCS did in 2011 to set up an all-SEC final with LSU?

We’ll never know now. And because of that single, bizarre play, the committee’s job next weekend is actually pretty easy because the playoff picture is now crystal clear.

Oklahoma is in, after throttling Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 outright. The Big Ten champion will be in, so the Iowa-Michigan State title game is essentially a play-in. If both Clemson and Alabama win their respective conference title games (both teams are heavy favorites), they’re in.

That’s your playoff field right there.

Should either Clemson or Alabama stumble, against North Carolina or Florida, respectively, then Stanford is next in line, provided it can beat USC for the Pac-12 title. Ohio State, with one loss but no conference title, would be next if the Cardinal also falter.

The only other team in the picture is North Carolina, which has a bad loss (to South Carolina) and two wins over FCS teams. But if the Tar Heels upset Clemson and all the other dominoes fall, they’ll sneak into the playoff.

As for the rest of the New Year’s Six bowls, here are the rules and our projection follows:

•The Rose Bowl is for the conference champions from the Big Ten and Pac-12. If a conference champion is selected to the playoff, the Rose Bowl has the sole discretion to pick another team from that conference.

•The Sugar Bowl will pit conference champions from the SEC and Big 12. The SEC replacement will be the highest-ranked team by the playoff committee. The Big 12 uses its own tiebreaker to determine the replacement team.

•The selection committee will determine the rest of the matchups for both the playoff games (Cotton and Orange) and also the Peach and Fiesta. The highest-ranked Group of Five champion is guaranteed a berth.

With these protocols in mind, here’s how we see things unfolding:

Orange Bowl (playoff): Clemson vs. Michigan State

Cotton Bowl (playoff): Oklahoma vs. Alabama

Rose Bowl: Stanford vs.

Ohio State

Sugar Bowl: Mississippi vs. Baylor

Peach Bowl: Houston vs. Florida State

Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Iowa

Pac-12’s bowl lineup

With Washington’s victory over Washington State in the Apple Cup, the Pac-12 has a record 10 bowl-eligible teams. The Pac-12 has seven bowls, including the Rose Bowl, contracted to take conference teams.

But fear not, because of a dearth of bowl-eligible teams (more later), every one of these 10 teams will go bowling, and here’s where we see them going:

Rose: Stanford

Alamo: USC

Holiday: Oregon

Foster Farms: Washington State

Sun: Utah

Las Vegas: UCLA

Cactus: Cal

Poinsettia: Washington

Armed Forces: Arizona State

Heart of Dallas: Arizona

Will Spartans bowl, too?

Only 75 teams are bowl-eligible for the 80 slots in 40 bowls. Kansas State, South Alabama and Georgia State can become bowl eligible next week, though all three will be underdogs in their games.

So what happens if there aren’t enough six-win teams to fill the slots? The NCAA had set a provision that a 5-7 team may be selected if it finished in the top five of Academic Progress Rate (APR) last school year, but the problem is that all five of those teams are already bowl eligible.

It is widely assumed then, that the bowls needing teams would just go down the APR list, though the NCAA has declined to confirm that’s the case. But for now, that’s all we have to go by.

When San Jose State lost to Boise State 40-23 to finish 5-7, it appeared that the Spartans were done for the season. But if 5-7 teams have to be picked according to the APR, the Spartans seem to still have a chance. The highest rated 5-7 teams, in APR order, are:

Nebraska (985), Kansas State (976), if it loses to West Virginia, Missouri (976), Minnesota (975), San Jose State (975), Illinois (973), Rice (973).

San Jose State probably would need quite a bit of help to secure a bowl spot via APR, but until the NCAA makes a clear ruling, nobody can be sure. The Spartans probably shouldn’t get their hopes up, though, as they’re competing against mostly Power 5 teams that are more attractive to bowls.

Game of the week

Stanford 38, Notre Dame 36: In what was a game essentially for a spot in the playoff on-deck circle, the Cardinal stunned the Irish on Conrad Ukropina’s 45-yard field goal as time expired. Notre Dame had taken the lead with just 30 seconds remaining, but couldn’t prevail.

Player of the week

Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State: A week after lambasting his coaching staff following a crushing loss to Michigan State, the Buckeyes’ junior running back let his legs do all the talking, rushing for 214 yards and two TDs as Ohio State manhandled Michigan 42-13.

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