With so much scenario modeling currently available, we are
able to better predict our future and anticipate the outcomes of various habits
and activities. While invaluable in the area of prediction, how has that
information transformed our environmental status? Is our environmental future
optimistic or dismal? Will we be able to celebrate Earth Day in the future
knowing that we have responded appropriately to the bleak prophecies?

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In the past couple of decades we have identified and
followed urban growth in Phoenix, climate change in the Arctic, el Niño and
west coast fisheries, land-use change in New England, nutrients in watersheds
in the Midwest and acid rain in the Northeast. While initially identified at
one time as a crisis, each of these stories has yielded change that has
resulted in progress. But once the potential outcome was revealed through
modeling, regions have responded.

For example, the Big Moose Lake in theNew York Adirondacks was oncethe poster child for acid rain damage. Fed by the Hubbard Brook, it was
documented as having a four-fold increase in sulfate, a ten-fold increase in nitrate and a drop in pH from 6.5 to
5 threatening aquatic ecosystems.

According to Charles Driscoll, scientist with the
National Science Foundation's (NSF) Hubbard Brook Long-Term Ecological Research
(LTER) and Syracuse University, "these lakes are the canaries in the coal
mine," warning us of impending ecological disaster.

But in the twenty plus years since, acid
rain-impaired lakes like Big Moose Lake show improvement in sulfates, nitrates,
and pH--and a growing ability to neutralize acid permitting Driscoll to now claim
the lake as a success story.

Researchers are able to identify and predict that with
additional pollution controls, the number of Adirondack lakes "in
recovery" could nearly double by 2050, from 40 to 76 however, without
these controls, it could take 200 years to undo the damage. But without the
initial modeling predictions we might not have been able to recover.

"We frequently wonder how altering current
decisions would affect the future," says Saran Twombly, an LTER program
director in NSF's Division of Environmental Biology.

"This research demonstrates that long-term data
are essential," says Twombly. "It indicates which decisions to
modify, and shows the consequences in ecosystems as we have come to know them
for the past 50-100 years."