Tropical Storm BETA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN IN DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA AND HAS BEEN RECEIVING WEATHER
DATA FROM SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. DATA FROM THE ISLAND OF
PROVIDENCIA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BETA IS MOVING OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO THE ISLAND. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 00Z WAS 995 MB AND
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WERE 50 TO 55
KNOTS ONE HOUR EARLIER. A NEW REPORT JUST RECEIVED FROM THE ISLAND
INDICATES THAT THE WINDS ARE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH. BETA IS
GOING THROUGH ITS USUAL UP AND DOWN CYCLE IN THE CONVECTION AND NOW
IT IS ON THE UPWARD TREND WITH A VENGEANCE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BETA IS
ABOUT TO BECOME A HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
BETWEEN NOW AND THE TIME OF LANDFALL OVER NICARAGUA OR EASTERN
HONDURAS. THIS TREND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND WITH THE GFDL
MODEL WHICH TENACIOUSLY MAKES BETA A 95 TO 100-KT HURRICANE.
BETA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS.
IT SEEMS THAT THE LEFT TURN INDICATED BY THE PARADE OF MODELS LED
BY THE GFDL IS BEGINNING. IT WOULD BE FOOLISH NOT TO FOLLOW THESE
ADVANCED MODELS...AND RIGHTFULLY SO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN TURNING BETA WESTWARD. THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN WOULD
SUGGEST A NORTHWARD TRACK BUT THE CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
NEW PATTERN WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE BETA TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD
CENTRAL AMERICA.
REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
DAMAGE...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE BE
PREPARED FOR THIS EVENT.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0300Z 13.6N 81.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 14.0N 81.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 14.5N 82.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 14.5N 83.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 14.5N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 01/0000Z 14.5N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 02/0000Z 14.5N 88.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/0000Z 15.0N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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