Monday, August 22, 2011

Yesterday, Star Tribune
columnist Pat Reusse put together his agenda for the Minnesota Twins this
off-season. The gist of it focused on not re-signing any of the expensive
veterans and channeling that money into areas of need – specifically the
pitching staff:

“When the Twins discuss the rotation for 2012, this should be the plan:

Mr.
Reusse’s request is echoed throughout every radio call-in show and blog comment
section that touches the subject of what the Twins should do next season (heck,
it’s been the same thing repeated since the loss of Johan Santana). While I
wholeheartedly agree with the sentiment, the unfortunate truth is that there is
likely little opportunity for the Twins to acquire anyone fitting that
description.

In terms of
free agents, Texas’s CJ Wilson is the top name on the market. The 30-year-old
Wilson has emerged the past two years after being a bullpen arm for the
Rangers, compiling a 27-13 record with an impressive 3.28 ERA (better when you
consider his home environment) and 329 strikeouts in 378.1 innings of work.
When you add the fact that Wilson’s workload was light during his younger years
(just 280.2 at the major league level between ages 24 and 28), a team would
land a pitcher they can be somewhat confident that his arm should hold up the duration of a
contract.

Of course,
the Twins are not the only team looking for number one types and Wilson will potentially be
a hard commodity to reel in. In addition to the Rangers who would want him to
stick around, the Yankees, Cardinals, Tigers, Cubs and other spend-happy teams
will be at least slightly interested in him. Outside of Wilson, there is not a name
on the free agent list that qualifies as what Mr. Reusse described.

The next
route -- trading for a number one starter -- is perhaps just as difficult. For argument’s
sake, let’s say the Rays decide to shop James Shields. Now the Rays have proven extreme good
at extracting top value for their commodities and are better than most teams, however, any team with a number one-type will be getting plenty of offers. The Rays will likely be able to get
a significant package for Shields (or any other top pitching
talent) and the Twins appear unlikely to assemble a matching deal – at least
be able to form one without hurting the system’s long-term viability. So, while
there are teams that may be inclined to moving a few good arms, it would cost the Twins dearly when it comes to the already talent-depleted farm system.

Here’s hoping
the Twins are able to find a pitcher that fits the bill of a number one
starter but if the Twins want to improve their rotation in the short-term,
the next best option is to improve their defense. Nowhere is this more needed
than in the infield.

Consider
this: the Minnesota Twins – once touted as the defensive darlings of the
universe – have become the worst team in the AL at turning groundballs into
outs.

American League Grounders

Team

Defensive Efficiency Ratio

Mariners

78.5%

Angels

78.5%

Blue
Jays

78.3%

Rangers

78.2%

Rays

78.0%

Red
Sox

77.3%

Indians

77.2%

Athletics

76.5%

Royals

76.4%

Yankees

76.0%

White
Sox

75.9%

Orioles

74.5%

Tigers

74.0%

Twins

73.3%

The Defensive
Efficiency Ratio tells us in broad-based terms how many times a team has successfully
converted a ball in play into an out. Breaking this down into the trajectory of
how a ball is put into play, we can use this to give us some idea of how teams’
outfield or infield units perform. So far in the American League this year,
nearly 77% (76.6%) of all grounders have been turned into outs, but the Seattle
Mariners and the Los Angeles Angels boast the league’s top slot for keeping
ground balls from becoming hits.

Around the
horn, the Seattle Mariners’ infield has been fairly stalwart. Their shortstops
have managed track and convert 74 plays on balls out of the standard shortstop
zone while holding a very good .837 revised zone rating (converting 252 of 301
plays inside a shortstop’s zone) which is third-best in the AL. Meanwhile,
Mariner second basemen have made 40 plays out of the normal zone while posting
a .827 revised zone rating (5th-best in AL). This – along with some exceptional
pitchers in Felix Hernandez and Micheal Pineda – have given the Mariners one of
the league’s best ERA’s at 3.77. While King Felix and Prince Pineda were
supplying strikeouts, rotation-mate Doug Fister – a groundball pitcher who is
far from a strikeout pitcher - posted a 3.33 ERA thanks to his infield backup. Had
the Mariners infielders had the slightest bit of lumber to compliment the
glovework, they may have wound up competitive in the AL West.

The Angels,
while not nearly as rangy as the Mariners infielders, have compiled an infield
that does their jobs. The shortstops and second baseman have the third-best
revised zone ratings (.843 and .844 respectively) among their peers while the corners
demonstrate an above-average ability to make the additional plays out of the
zone. The first basemen lead the league with 35 out-of-zone plays while the
third basemen are fourth with 32 out-of-zone plays. Perhaps not surprising, at
3.49, the Angels own the AL’s best ERA.

On the
opposite end of the spectrum from the Mariners and Angels rest the Minnesota
Twins. The Twins are the American League’s worst at turning a groundball into
an out. Their 73.3% conversion rate in 2011 represents a significant drop over their
76.1% from a year ago.

The agglomeration
of middle infielders has provided little additional support for their pitchers.
The shortstops – mainly headlined by Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Alexi Casilla – have
done a decent job of nabbing an extra 60 plays out-of-zone. However, that is
overshadowed by the way the shortstop unit has performed within their
designated zone: their .769 revised zone rating is the worst in the AL. One
year ago, with JJ Hardy and Nick Punto manning short, the team had the AL’s
best revised zone rating at the position (.839). Nishioka, once thought of to
be a defensive upgrade at the position, has demonstrated
regularly that he is incapable of holding down a starting job at this time.

At second,
the Twins have added 27 out-of-zone outs (second-fewest in AL) with a .802
revised zone rating (fourth-lowest). While Casilla has done a decent job when
able to be on the field, there is an obvious drop off in the quality of defense
provided when Michael Cuddyer and, to a lesser extent, Luke Hughes is playing. In
2010 the Twins put up good marks at second with veteran Orlando Hudson. That
year, the Minnesota second basemen posted a .833 revised zone rating and added
another 42 outs that were not in their zone.

Perhaps the
most substantial decline has been the defensive production at third. Danny
Valencia – given the position full-time – has shown as much range as Gilbert Gottfried
in 2011. Valencia and the few fill-ins have chased down just 19 plays
out-of-zone this year. Comparatively, the Blue Jays have converted an
additional 46 out-of-zone plays. More worrisome, like shortstop, the in-zone
plays have dropped from a league-lead .780 in 2010 to .691 this season.

The Twins
pitchers are pitch-to-contact. This strategy is not sexy but it can be successful
if the necessary support is there – after all, for the majority of the century the team
has won division titles based on this. All of this fumbling, bumbling and
stumbling in the infield has led to more hits, more base-runners, more pitches
and, ultimately, more runs for the Twins pitching staff in 2011. It is not hard
to see an association between the infield defense and the staff’s ERA which jumped
from 3.95 to 4.48.

Even if the
Twins do bring in the marquee-number-one-with-a-bullet starter, they still need
to address the defense for the remainder of the rotation.

About OtB

"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."