000
FXUS64 KLZK 170938
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
338 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018
.Short Term...Today through Sunday night
A progressive upper pattern is forecast by all near term models
which will result in unsettled conditions across the forecast area.
With model differences generally small, a blend of forecast
solutions will be used this morning.
Upper pattern this morning features a general west to southwest flow
with plenty of available gulf moisture. Frontal system that moved
through the region yesterday has stalled to the south of the state
and will interact with an upper level impulse moving through the region
at this time. Local radars indicate that light rain continues to
fill in across the state with considerably more rain to the west
that is associated with an area of enhanced lift in the base of a
broad upper trough.
As system translates east this morning, widespread rain is expected.
Thermal profiles indicate just rain is expected with this system but
it will definitely be a chilly rain. System is a fairly quick mover
with precipitation expected to end over the northwest this morning
and clearing the CWA by early afternoon.
Weak high pressure will build in later today through early Sunday
for a brief respite from the unsettled conditions. The high will
exit quickly Sunday afternoon with moisture and precipitation
chances returning to the south as early as late Sunday morning. The
best rain chances will shift to the north Sunday night as another
upper level impulse approaches the area.
With cloud cover and rain, temperatures will average below normal
today but average a little above tomorrow with more sunshine
expected, especially for the central and northern parts of the
state. MAV/Mex numbers look good and are generally accepted.
&&
.Long Term...Monday through Friday
Models continue to advertise a prolonged period of moderate to heavy
rainfall next week. And while some timing and placement differences
still exist, the consensus seems to favor the heaviest rainfall
amounts being located somewhere in the northwest half of the state.
This will be driven by southwesterly flow aloft, between a western
trough and eastern ridge. The persistent southwest flow will tap
into Gulf moisture which will interact with a slow moving, or likely
stalled, frontal boundary across the region thanks to a parallel
orientation of the front and upper level winds. With such a
pattern, areas of heavy rain are expected to develop from eastern
Texas into Arkansas and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, mainly
from late Monday night through Wednesday morning. As far as
Arkansas goes, the heaviest precipitation is favored basically
along and to the north and west of the I-30/US-67 corridor, or
from Little Rock toward the Ozarks/Ouachitas of the north and
west.
As far as rainfall, a fairly large swath of three to five inch
amounts seems likely, with higher amounts possible. Flood/flash
flood issues will depend on where the heaviest rain falls. If the
event is mainly over the north/west where it has been dry for
awhile, issues would not be as significant as farther south/east
where it has been very wet. This situation will be monitored
closely.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 52 35 60 53 / 90 0 20 50
Camden AR 54 41 62 57 / 90 10 40 20
Harrison AR 52 33 62 51 / 90 0 10 50
Hot Springs AR 55 38 60 55 / 90 0 30 40
Little Rock AR 54 38 60 55 / 90 0 30 30
Monticello AR 53 41 62 58 / 90 10 40 20
Mount Ida AR 56 37 61 56 / 90 0 30 50
Mountain Home AR 52 32 61 50 / 90 0 10 50
Newport AR 50 36 59 53 / 90 0 20 40
Pine Bluff AR 52 39 59 56 / 90 10 40 20
Russellville AR 54 36 61 54 / 90 0 20 50
Searcy AR 52 35 59 54 / 90 0 20 40
Stuttgart AR 52 39 60 56 / 90 0 30 30
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...GOUDSWARD / Long Term...DALTON