For 18 years, the Bloc has served as sovereignty’s agent general, its perpetrator in Ottawa. The BQ had big numbers, usually around 40 seats. For a time, it was even the official opposition. Quebec nationalists could feel their interests were being looked after. As a result came unintended consequences. The better the Bloc did, the worse the sovereignty movement did. In a sense the sovereignty movement became a victim of the Bloc’s success. The party gave Quebeckers the comfort of feeling their interests were being well looked after.

But what now? Here’s betting that the effect of this election is to re-ignite sovereigntist passions. Here’s betting that before long Pauline Marois and the Parti Quebecois will rise up. Sovereigntists are now isolated, deprived of direct representation. Isolation will lead to embitterment that will jack the movement from its slumber.

Of all federalist leaders, Jack Layton’s platform best addresses nationalist desires. He’s even spoken of reopening the Constitution. But Mr. Layton has no power to enact any of his wishes. He is only the opposition leader.

We can be sure also that among his 59 members of parliament, there will be unruly elements. They will want to push nationalist grievances to the top of the parliamentary agenda. In combination with a reinvigorated separatist movement, there is a formula for havoc.

Thanks in good part to Mr. Harper’s adroit granting of nation status to the Quebecois, he was able to keep the lid on the unity issue. Now it will not be so easy. Had the Bloc been returned with its customary big swath of seats, the prospect would have been for continued peace.

What must also be considered is that now that Mr. Harper has a majority he will face more pressure to address the concerns of the West. That could create additional tensions with la belle province.

The Conservative strategy for winning a majority government used to be building a coalition between the West and Quebec. With this election, Mr. Harper has demonstrated that such a coalition is no longer necessary. The West in combination with Ontario is now sufficient. Those are the provinces he will most want to cater to.

The new cleavage with Quebec is not the only the tension-builder to arise from this election. Besides the demise of the Bloc there is also the withering of the Liberal Party, the party of the centre. Remarkably, in less than a decade, Canada has lost its two great historic parties of the middle. The Progressive Conservatives were swallowed up by Stephen Harper’s Alliance Party. Now the Liberals have been pushed aside by the NDP.

What the country is left with is an ideological split the likes of which it has never seen before. While it is true that both the Conservatives and the New Democrats will have to fashion policy appeals to the centre of the spectrum, it is also true that at root they are ideological formations of greatly differing philosophical bents. It makes the potential for divisiveness and polarization much greater than under the old party system.

In his fine speech following the great victory, Mr. Harper came across as the conciliator, wanting to reach out to all sides and to all corners of the country. They were soothing words. Given the exacting conditions of governance he will now face, they will be sorely needed.

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Author

Lawrence Martin is the author of ten books, including six national bestsellers. His most recent, Harperland, was nominated for the Shaughnessy Cohen award. His other works include two volumes on Jean Chretien, two on Canada-U.S. relations and three books on hockey.
Educated at McMaster and Harvard, Martin served as Washington correspondent and Moscow correspondent for The Globe and Mail and is a long-standing columnist for the newspaper. Among other honours, he is the recipient of McMaster’s Life Leadership Achievement Award.