An Economic Indicator That Predicted The Last 7 Recessions Predicts No Recession Any Time Soon

Plunging oil markets and faltering growth expectations around the world have raised fears about the sustainability of the current U.S. economic expansion.

The economic data, though, suggest that these fears are largely unfounded. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which is made up of 10 forward-looking economic and financial indicators, has not fallen since January and has been gaining momentum throughout the year.

Until we see the LEI approach negative year-over-year growth, which has preceded the last seven recessions, the U.S. economy should continue to ride out the storm emanating from overseas. Guggenheim Partners