Trade and security in the post-Pax Americana age

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, center, shakes hands with European Council President Donald Tusk next to European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker, right, before a meeting at Abe's official residence in Tokyo Tuesday, July 17, 2018. The European Union and Japan are signing a widespread trade deal Tuesday that will eliminate nearly all tariffs, seemingly defying the worries about trade tensions set off by U.S. President Donald Trump's policies. (Martin Bureau/Pool Photo via AP)

Faced with evidence beyond doubt that the current White House regime is totally untrustworthy and feels nothing but contempt for the United States’ traditional allies, governments around the world are scurrying to grab more dependable security and trade alliances.

There was a potent signal of the emergence of this post-Pax Americana age on Tuesday when Japan and the European Union signed a free trade agreement creating a tariff-free community of 600 million people, accounting for a third of the world’s economy.

The deal, the largest ever signed by the EU, was five years in the making, but the timing of the signing on Tuesday carried heavy symbolism.

It came after a period of weeks during which the Oval Office has made it crystal clear to both Tokyo and Brussels that it is more enchanted with the murderous dictators in Moscow, Beijing and Pyongyang than the U.S.’ tradition allies in Europe and Asia.

Donald Tusk, the European council president, described the significance of the agreement with pointed clarity at the signing ceremony in Tokyo with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

“Politically, it’s a light in the increasing darkness of international politics,” Tusk said.

“We are sending a clear message that you can count on us. We are predictable – both Japan and [the] EU – predictable and responsible and will come to the defence of a world order based on rules, freedom and transparency and common sense. And this political dimension is even more visible today, tomorrow, than two months ago and I am absolutely sure you know what I mean.”

Indeed we do. It was only last week, at the NATO summit in Brussels, that Tusk warned the U.S. that it needs to be more careful how it treats its friends, because it doesn’t have very many.

Japan and its Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have been swifter than most in diagnosing the dangers and challenges of the new Washington regime.

Japan, after all, lives in a tough neighbourhood. It sits just off the coast of the increasingly aggressive and imperialist super-power, China. It is just over the horizon from North Korea, which after the disastrous summit in Singapore last month, is now acknowledged by Washington as a nuclear weapons power.

Tokyo needs to be able to depend on its U.S. alliance just as Europe needs dependable backing in the face of malevolent Moscow. So Abe was the first foreign leader to rush to the New York corporate offices of the newly-elected U.S. leader in November, 2016.

From his subsequent actions, it is clear that Abe came away convinced that flattery would get you a long way with the new regime. But the Japanese Prime Minister is smart enough to have realised that when dealing with a noisy, but empty vessel nothing is assured. Narcissists are untrustworthy by nature.

Since the end of 2016, Japan has been working assiduously to construct new security and economic relationships that will provide cover if U.S. ties are broken beyond repair.

On the economic front, Abe took the lead in keeping afloat negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, in which Canada is a player, after the new Washington administration bowed out and announced its objection to all multi-lateral trade agreements.

Abe is also bolstering Japan’s already massive investment in the 10 countries of Southeast Asia, pushing trade and investment with India, and developing India as a partner for business in Africa.

The India-Japan “Indo-Pacific Vision of 2025” is a comprehensive economic and security agreement. For Japan, it identifies New Delhi as Tokyo’s “most important partner” in its regional strategy.

Japan is now becoming the key partner in India’s drive to modernise and expand its antiquated and inadequate infrastructure network. They have also sealed a partnership for the development and use of space technology with the aim of becoming that sector’s leaders in the Asia-Pacific region.

Since 2013, when he introduced a new National Security Strategy, Abe has been working slowly but persistently to dismantle the restrictions imposed on the Japanese armed forces by the U.S. after the Second World War.

The purpose of the new strategy is to ensure Japan’s maritime supremacy and air superiority as China has “rapidly expanded and intensified its activities in the sea and airspace around Japan.”

To this end, Japan has found natural security allies in Australia and India, both of which are also apprehensive about China’s rising power and how far President Xi Jinping’s ambitions may stretch.

Tokyo is also being open-handed in providing security support of several kinds to its neighbours in Southeast Asia bordering the South China Sea, who are at the sharp end of Chinese expansionism.

To the surprise of many, Canada has played a small, walk-on part in the Japanese hunt for dependable security allies.

At the end of March, Canada’s Victoria-class diesel-electric submarine HMCS Chicoutimi returned to its home port at Esquimalt after a 197-day deployment in Asian waters. During the voyage, the Chicoutimi exercised with the Japanese navy and took part in anti-sanctions busting patrols off the coast of North Korea.

The voyage of HMCS Chicoutimi stands out because the forays of the Canadian Navy into Asian waters and exercises with allies are few and far between.

The navy does what it can with what it is given, but it is not given much. This speaks to an unwillingness among Canadian politicians of all hews and their backdrop chorus of business, academic and civil society leaders to accept that most countries see economic and security relationships as firmly interlocked.

Trade follows the flag as much now as it ever did.

This syndrome of minimising or ignoring security relations with allies is so embedded in the Canadian ruling class psyche that it is perhaps unfair to single out any one example. But on Monday, the Calgary-based Canadian Global Affairs Institute published a six-page report of its May conference on “Positioning Canada in the Shifting International Order.”

The report is 70 bullet-form summations of all the major points made by the participants in the day-long discussion that covered managing relations with the U.S., Canada’s international interests, energy export policy, China’s rise, and Canada and the G7 club of industrialised nations.

Yet only one of those 70 bullet points refers to the role of Canada’s defence and security interests in the country’s broader trade and political relations. Even then, it is an obtuse reference to the challenge of Chinese activities in the Arctic.

Japan clearly got the message of the new age early, even before its was spelled out in the Singapore, NATO and Helsinki summits.

Europe also has the future in sharp focus. It would be nice to have confidence that Ottawa does too.

For middle powers, you either hang together or you will hang separately.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

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3 comments on “Trade and security in the post-Pax Americana age”

The issue with the EU, which Japan might discover, is getting all the members to agree to the trade agreement – it is a cumbersome process. But, the writer makes a good point that we need to get serious about defence spending and assets as that enhances our dependence and credibility.

Canada should apply for membership in the EU. Makes total sense to consider this at this time. Truth is, we have more in common with Europe than with the U.S, (especially a U.S run by a Russian agent.)

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Author

Jonathan Manthorpe is the author of “Forbidden Nation: A History of Taiwan,” published by Palgrave-Macmillan. He has been a foreign correspondent and international affairs columnist for nearly 40 years. He was European bureau chief for the Toronto Star and then Southam News in the late 1970s and the 1980s. In 1989 he was appointed Africa correspondent by Southam News and in 1993 was posted to Hong Kong to cover Asia. For the last few years he has been based in Vancouver, writing international affairs columns for what is now the Postmedia Group. He left the group last year and now writes for a range of newspapers and websites. [email protected]