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Brad Morgan

Red Zone Report

Red Zone Report Wrapup

Before I get to a few notes for those still playing in Week 17, let's quick look at next season. I'm not gonna give you top 50 or top 10, rather here's 10 sexiest- meaning exciting- players for 2010 (and the guys you'll want to follow all off-season):

2010 Top 10 Sexiest Players

1. Beanie Wells (Cardinals RB)- As the season progress, Wells showed himself to be one of the steals of the 2009 draft. Slowly but surely, he stole more and more work from Tim Hightower, and now looks like he'll have a shot at being Arizona's #1 back next season. His combination of size (6-1 228) and explosive running ability will make him an exciting player to watch next year.

2. Jerome Harrison (Browns RB)- Whether or not 2010 will bring a Sanz-Mangini season for Harrison, his lighting quick running style has earned him the lion share of Cleveland Browns carries for the foreseeable future. Next year could be a great one for Harrison.

3. Michael Crabtree (49ers WR)- How many rookie wideouts can join the team mid-season and make and impact? Not many. Most rookie WRs don't make an impact as it is. Crabtree was truly spectacular in this respect. Given a full offseason to build chemistry with Alex Smith and learn their newly implemented spread offense, it's not crazy to say Crabtree could be a top 15 WR next year.

4. Justin Forsett (Seahawks RB)- The bad news is that Forsett has to compete with the incumbent RB, Julius Jones. The good news is that Forsett has to compete with Julius Jones. Honestly, I'm not sure what NFL coaches are thinking sometimes. Justin Forsett has done nothing but perform great when he's been given a chance, averaging 5.2 ypc and 8.6 yards per reception. Hopefully playing his best RB will be Jim Mora's New Year's Resolution.

5. Hakeem Nicks (Giants WR)- It took Nicks a while to become a integral part of the Giants offense, but Eli Manning has finally found his big downfield target to replace Plaxico Burress. Although Steve Smith was the Giants #1 this season, Nicks' skill set fits that role far better going forward (he averaged 17.3 yards per catch!!!).

6. Jermichael Finley (Packers TE)- Becoming an elite TE can happen suddenly, just ask Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis or Brett Celek. Finley came into this year as a huge longshot, who many thought had a slight chance to be a monster TE. Injuries and a slowly growing role in the offense prevented him from fully breaking out this season, as he finished as the 15th best TE. This offseason, however, Finley won't be the surprise of camp, developing him will be one of the Packers' biggest priorities. Finley has the explosive athletic ability to do what Vernon Davis did this season for fantasy owners.

7. Malcolm Floyd (Chargers WR)- Like a lot of guys on this list, Floyd wasn't give starter reps in games and practices until about halfway through the season (after the Chargers released Chris Chambers). Given a full off-season working the Chargers #2 WR opposite Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd will be another big (6-5 225) target for Phillip Rivers in San Diego's high flying passing game.

8. Michael Bush (Raiders RB)- Here's another guy who biggest problem has been getting consistent playing time. Like Forsett, Wells, and Harrison, Bush seems to always perform well when he's given a chance. With Justin Fargas turning 30 and seeing his 2nd declining season in a row, Bush should have a real shot at being Oakland's starting back, which could mean huge things for fantasy owners. He'll have to compete with Darren McFadden, clearly an inferior runner to Bush, but the Louisville alum should prevail.

9. Mike Wallace (Steelers WR)- Having proven himself as Big Ben new home run threat, Wallace now needs to make the jump to being a solid route runner as well. The new pass-happy direction of the Steelers offense bodes very well for Wallace getting an opportunity to prove himself as more than deep threat. With Hines Ward approaching the wrong side of 30, Wallace could see increased opportunity, as well.

10. Devin Thomas (Redskins WR)- As the season grew on, Thomas' role in the offense expanded. Although Santana Moss is still Washington's #1 receiving option, Thomas provides a much different skill set. At 6-2 220, Thomas is an uber-athletic receiver who can stretch the field or come across the middle. A former 1st round pick, Thomas should have ample opportunity this off-season to establish himself as an invaluable part of the Redskins passing attack. He will definitely be worth a late round pick come next fall, and could see a similar 3rd year breakout season to the Vikings' Sidney Rice.

Week 17 Notes Here are a couple of under-the-radar options for this weekend's games:

Snelling has another dynamite matchup against one of the worst run defenses in football. Don't be fooled by Tampa Bay's win last week against the Saints, they are still very weak against the run. Snelling is a solid RB2 this week, while Norwood is a good Flex play.

Billy Volek, Chargers RB With the no.2 seed locked up this week, Volek should see a lot of action against the Redskins 22nd ranked pass defense this week. For those in 2QB leagues, or any Phillip Rivers owners, Volek could be a very nice replacement this week.

Josh Morgan, 49ers Although he disappointed last week in a great matchup vs. Detroit, Morgan has a chance at redemption this week. Facing the Rams atrocious passing defense, Morgan is a decent WR3 option.

Muhsin Muhammad, Panthers WRWith Steve Smith out, Muhammad will take over #1 receiving duties for Carolina. If you've been burned by Smith getting hurt, Muhammad is a fine replacement, but don't expect more than 7-8 points.

Sammy Morris, Patriots RB Facing a bad Houston run defense this week, Morris has a great chance to put up a second stellar fantasy week in a row. He makes a very nice flex play this week.

Nothing lasts forever, but if one thing could, this little game we play would definitely be in the running. There's something about fantasy football that seems so important, while at the same time fun and competitive. For all the former athletes-turned-unreasonably-intense-weekend warriors (including yours truly) it gives us a chance to compete for that elusive prideful feeling once again. Although the goal is to "win", the real fun is chasing that win against your buddies, trash talking, and occasionally rooting for Brandon Jacobs but against Eli Manning, in the same game. Now, of course, the NFL season isn't over; but the part that you can take any personal pride in has ended.

While I'll be watching intently on Sunday, hoping that Marvin Lewis gives the Jets another gift and benches his starters, it's a different feeling than rooting for something covered in your finger prints.

Speaking of things covered in my fingerprints, I'd figure it would be fun to look back at a few of the good calls, some of the bad, and the one truly awful call that beats them all from this years' Red Zone Report. And I'll look at some new ideas to improve the Red Zone Report for next year (If you any, send them in, I'd love to hear em).

After seeing Slaton lose more and more important carries (in scoring situations), I felt it was only a matter of time before his fantasy value took a huge hit. Within a few weeks, Slaton's value had completely plummeted, and gave way to one of the most annoying RB by committees in recent memory. (the ole' guess who Gary Kubiak wants to give the ball to this week game).

Tight Ends

For some reason, I really nailed a bunch of TE calls. I called Brent Celek a top 5 TE after Week 3, then added Vernon Davis to my top 5 after Week 4. I also found myself alone behind the wheel of the Fred Davis bandwagon for too long.

Buy Low on LT

After being hurt and ineffective for the first 6 weeks of the season, LT was proclaimed all but dead. However, I saw a guy on an explosive offensive still getting the majority of Goal Line carries, which meant that it was only a matter of time before it started raining touchdowns. Before I told you to buy low: 1 TD and fantasy doom; After: 11 TDs and Top 7 RB value…I'm not saying, I'm just saying.

I addressed this somewhat in the Airing of Grievances column, but truly Brandon Jacobs: you made a fool of me. He taunted me with his ridiculous power/speed combo, and ran like a fairy. His career 5.0 yards per carry went down to 3.7 in 2009, that's pitiful. He barely finished as a top 25 back, despite having better scoring opportunities than nearly everyone else.

In all fairness, this was correct if you were in the jerks on the Bengals fantasy league. Never heard of this? (points for misdemeanors, felonies, awesome celebrations, and of course homophobic slurs against your head coach). Seriously, I saw the schedule LJ was poised to face the rest of the season (the same one Jamaal Charles built his name on), and thought he could have some real value. Silly me I didn't factor in LJ trying to get kicked off the team.

Wow. It's one thing to feel stupid looking back, it's another to have been seriously down on a running back who ended up turning in one of the most spectacular season's we've ever seen. And while there really aren't many other words I can use to further bemoan this appalling prediction (there's another one), there is a silver lining.

The light at the end of this dark tunnel is the creation of the Chris Johnson Rule. Which was one of the many things I learned this season, that will be used to improved next season's analysis.

The idea of the Chris Johnson Rule is simple: RBs with explosive big play ability (which was operationalized by looking at how often they broke of 10+ yard runs and 25+ yard runs) can overcome not being their team's clear cut Goal Line back. If we look at RZ stats and running explosiveness together, we can get a much better idea of which running backs will produce the most fantasy value. Next season these stats will be tracked, and used frequently in analysis.

Tracking GL targets in addition to RZ targets

I toyed with the idea of tracking Goal Line targets for WRs and TEs (in addition to Red Zone targets), and started taking it seriously too late. But it would assist in giving us an idea of which players are getting chances to actually catch the ball in the end zone (which are the easiest scoring chances), as opposed to just when they are thrown the ball in the Red Zone (inside the 20) which represents many different types of targets- ranging from screen passes to fade routes. Next season this will be added to the bevy on RZ Report tools.

Three Week trends in RZ+GL targets

Lastly, and perhaps the best improvement that you'll see next year is the introduction of Weekly RZ+GL target trends. In addition to seeing how many targets players have gotten, and what percentage of their teams RZ targets they get, we will be able to evaluate the relevancy of those stats by looking at their targets over their last 3 games. This will give us insight into how these players are currently being used, as opposed to only looking at season totals which can be skewed by a few big weeks.

Before I get to a few notes for those still playing in Week 17, let's quick look at next season. I'm not gonna give you top 50 or top 10, rather here's 10 sexiest- meaning exciting- players for 2010 (and the guys you'll want to follow all off-season):

2010 Top 10 Sexiest Players

1. Beanie Wells (Cardinals RB)- As the season progress, Wells showed himself to be one of the steals of the 2009 draft. Slowly but surely, he stole more and more work from Tim Hightower, and now looks like he'll have a shot at being Arizona's #1 back next season. His combination of size (6-1 228) and explosive running ability will make him an exciting player to watch next year.

2. Jerome Harrison (Browns RB)- Whether or not 2010 will bring a Sanz-Mangini season for Harrison, his lighting quick running style has earned him the lion share of Cleveland Browns carries for the foreseeable future. Next year could be a great one for Harrison.

3. Michael Crabtree (49ers WR)- How many rookie wideouts can join the team mid-season and make and impact? Not many. Most rookie WRs don't make an impact as it is. Crabtree was truly spectacular in this respect. Given a full offseason to build chemistry with Alex Smith and learn their newly implemented spread offense, it's not crazy to say Crabtree could be a top 15 WR next year.

4. Justin Forsett (Seahawks RB)- The bad news is that Forsett has to compete with the incumbent RB, Julius Jones. The good news is that Forsett has to compete with Julius Jones. Honestly, I'm not sure what NFL coaches are thinking sometimes. Justin Forsett has done nothing but perform great when he's been given a chance, averaging 5.2 ypc and 8.6 yards per reception. Hopefully playing his best RB will be Jim Mora's New Year's Resolution.

5. Hakeem Nicks (Giants WR)- It took Nicks a while to become a integral part of the Giants offense, but Eli Manning has finally found his big downfield target to replace Plaxico Burress. Although Steve Smith was the Giants #1 this season, Nicks' skill set fits that role far better going forward (he averaged 17.3 yards per catch!!!).

6. Jermichael Finley (Packers TE)- Becoming an elite TE can happen suddenly, just ask Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis or Brett Celek. Finley came into this year as a huge longshot, who many thought had a slight chance to be a monster TE. Injuries and a slowly growing role in the offense prevented him from fully breaking out this season, as he finished as the 15th best TE. This offseason, however, Finley won't be the surprise of camp, developing him will be one of the Packers' biggest priorities. Finley has the explosive athletic ability to do what Vernon Davis did this season for fantasy owners.

7. Malcolm Floyd (Chargers WR)- Like a lot of guys on this list, Floyd wasn't give starter reps in games and practices until about halfway through the season (after the Chargers released Chris Chambers). Given a full off-season working the Chargers #2 WR opposite Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd will be another big (6-5 225) target for Phillip Rivers in San Diego's high flying passing game.

8. Michael Bush (Raiders RB)- Here's another guy who biggest problem has been getting consistent playing time. Like Forsett, Wells, and Harrison, Bush seems to always perform well when he's given a chance. With Justin Fargas turning 30 and seeing his 2nd declining season in a row, Bush should have a real shot at being Oakland's starting back, which could mean huge things for fantasy owners. He'll have to compete with Darren McFadden, clearly an inferior runner to Bush, but the Louisville alum should prevail.

9. Mike Wallace (Steelers WR)- Having proven himself as Big Ben new home run threat, Wallace now needs to make the jump to being a solid route runner as well. The new pass-happy direction of the Steelers offense bodes very well for Wallace getting an opportunity to prove himself as more than deep threat. With Hines Ward approaching the wrong side of 30, Wallace could see increased opportunity, as well.

10. Devin Thomas (Redskins WR)- As the season grew on, Thomas' role in the offense expanded. Although Santana Moss is still Washington's #1 receiving option, Thomas provides a much different skill set. At 6-2 220, Thomas is an uber-athletic receiver who can stretch the field or come across the middle. A former 1st round pick, Thomas should have ample opportunity this off-season to establish himself as an invaluable part of the Redskins passing attack. He will definitely be worth a late round pick come next fall, and could see a similar 3rd year breakout season to the Vikings' Sidney Rice.

Week 17 Notes Here are a couple of under-the-radar options for this weekend's games:

Snelling has another dynamite matchup against one of the worst run defenses in football. Don't be fooled by Tampa Bay's win last week against the Saints, they are still very weak against the run. Snelling is a solid RB2 this week, while Norwood is a good Flex play.

Billy Volek, Chargers RB With the no.2 seed locked up this week, Volek should see a lot of action against the Redskins 22nd ranked pass defense this week. For those in 2QB leagues, or any Phillip Rivers owners, Volek could be a very nice replacement this week.

Josh Morgan, 49ers Although he disappointed last week in a great matchup vs. Detroit, Morgan has a chance at redemption this week. Facing the Rams atrocious passing defense, Morgan is a decent WR3 option.

Muhsin Muhammad, Panthers WRWith Steve Smith out, Muhammad will take over #1 receiving duties for Carolina. If you've been burned by Smith getting hurt, Muhammad is a fine replacement, but don't expect more than 7-8 points.

Sammy Morris, Patriots RB Facing a bad Houston run defense this week, Morris has a great chance to put up a second stellar fantasy week in a row. He makes a very nice flex play this week.