A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left.
Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

YouGov points to Labour as largest party

Today's YouGov poll, taken after the PBR, puts Labour on 36% (same as at the last General Election), the Tories on 40% and the LDs on 14%. On a uniform swing this would give Labour 313 seats in the Commons (13 short of a majority), the Tories 289, and the Lib Dems 20.

Most people agree that with the exception of ICM, the pollsters are under-reporting Lib Dem support by at least 3%.

I agree but my hunch is that the missing 3% of Lib Dems are primarily in the south and south west and that therefore the negative impact of this will be on the Tories in seats they are trying to win back from incumbent Lib Dems. I would guess that the Lib Dems will hold about 40 seats, leaving the Tories even further behind on about 270 i.e. equivalent to what Kinnock got in 1992.

6 Comments:

This then is the Cheltenham dilemma (for electoral purposes we're in the South West but for TV reception purposes we're in the Midlands. In reality we're an outlier of the gentler bits of the Home Counties).

We have a Liberal MP. Should we campaign vigorously against him in a general election knowing that that might help the Tories to win back the seat (which Michael Heseltine (amongst others) thinks they rightfully own)?

I think every Labour candidate has to campaign vigorously. It's not for Labour to try to guess the influence on the outcome of a battle between the 2 anti-Labour parties of our campaigning, our job is to maximise our own vote in every constituency.

Having said that, in Cheltenham you can of course avoid the dilemma if it worries you, and fulfil your obligations to the key seat strategy by giving lots of campaigning help to Parmjit Dhanda in nearby marginal Gloucester.

Luke you have no chance at the next general election. Millions of working people are going to give you the biggest shock you have ever had. This is going to be a vote that tactically removes your party for 20 years.....everyone is fed up Luke.

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About Me

Labour Party activist since 1988 - firmly on the moderate wing of the party. Member of Labour’s NEC 2010-2012. National Secretary of Labour Students 1995-6. Parliamentary candidate for Aldershot (2001) and Castle Point (2005). Hackney Councillor (Chatham Ward) 2002-2014, Labour Group Chief Whip 2002-09, Chair of Health Scrutiny 2010-2014. Supporter of Europe, NATO/nuclear deterrence, Israel, electoral reform. Guardian reader. Dad. Oxford resident. Unite union member. Employment history as a Labour Party Organiser, Local Government Political Assistant, Director at a Public Affairs company. All views expressed in a personal capacity. The rest will become evident from reading the blog.