Election 2016: Campaign fails to shift voters, Labor and the Coalition still tied

Updated 21 May 2016 — 8:46 AM, first published at 20 May 2016 — 11:45 PM

Two weeks of fierce campaigning have failed to shift voters with a new poll showing the major parties evenly matched and the July 2 election still too close to call.

And while the decline in Malcolm Turnbull's personal ratings has stopped, Bill Shorten continues to improve, recording his best figures in 11 months. He has further closed the gap on Mr Turnbull as preferred prime minister.

With one quarter of the election campaign over, the latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows the Coalition leading Labor by 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, which is no change to the last poll taken at the start of the campaign.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and Member for Richmond Justine Elliot on the campaign trail. Labour is just 2 per cent behind the government a new poll shows. Alex Ellinghausen

This 51-49 result is based on how preferences flowed at the 2013 election. If it were repeated on election day, and the swing was uniform the Coalition would lose up to seven seats, leaving it with a seven-seat majority.

When those polled were asked who they would preference this time, the major parties were tied at 50 per cent each and that on election day could deliver a hung Parliament.

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Most voters believe Coalition will win

Despite the even standing of the parties, most voters still believe the Coalition will win, which is a strong indicator this close to an election.

The poll finds 57 per cent believe the Coalition will win, an increase of four points since the campaign began, while just 20 per cent believe Labor will win, a drop of four points.

The Fairfax/Ipsos poll of 1497 voters was taken from Tuesday night until Thursday night this week. It follows the first week in which Labor campaigned on education and the government sold its budget, primarily the company tax cuts.

This week was dominated by Labor releasing its biggest policy so far – $2.4 billion to lift the freeze on Medicare payments to doctors to keep the cost to patients down – while the government shifted its focus to its core strength of asylum seekers. Labor also had problems with frontbencher David Feeney not declaring a $2 million investment property.

Laura Tingle

Approval rating

Two-party polling based on preference flow at the last election. The poll results are based on a national survey of 1497 respondents (aged 18+) conducted by telephone from May 17-19, 2016. Data is weighted by age, sex and location.

Preferred PM

Phillip Coorey

The starkest election choice in years

Two-party

SOURCE: IPSOS | GRAPHIC: EDMUND TADROS, LES HEWITT

Both sides remain evenly matched

Support for the Coalition and Labor remains unchanged a fortnight into the election campaign

Primary vote

Primary support for the Coalition remains well ahead of Labor

The starkest election choice in years

The majority of voters continue to prefer Turnbull as PM

Turnbull's approval rating has steadied while Shorten's continues to increase

NB: May not sum due to rounding

But there was little movement, suggesting voters have yet to engage or are yet to be swayed.

The Coalition's primary vote remained relatively unchanged, falling one percentage point to 43 per cent, while Labor's rose one point to 34 per cent.

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Despite an aggressive start by the Greens, in which they wedged the ALP over penalty rates and made high-profile incursions into four vulnerable Labor seats – Batman, Wills, Grayndler and Sydney – the minor party's primary vote stayed unchanged at a relatively healthy 14 per cent.

PM's approval slide (mostly) came to a halt

In a relief for the Coalition, the decline in the personal standing of the Prime Minister came to a halt.

Mr Turnbull's approval rating, which peaked at 69 per cent in November last year, stayed steady at 48 per cent, while his disapproval rating has fallen two points since the start of the campaign to 38 per cent.

Mr Shorten's ratings are the best since June last year. His approval rating rose two points to 40 per cent and his disapproval rating fell three points to 46 per cent.

In terms of preferred prime minister, Mr Turnbull has fallen another four points to 47 per cent while Mr Shorten has lifted a point to 30 per cent.

A Seven News/Reachtel poll published on Friday night also had the major parties locked at 50 per cent each.

The 57 per cent who believe the Coalition will win reflects the odds in the betting markets.

To form government in its own right, a party needs a minimum 76 seats. The Coalition starts with a notional 89 seats and Labor with a notional count of 57 seats.