People weren’t buying much during the Great Depression. This we know. But from
1929 to 1933, refrigerator sales went up 30%–because it was a “highly innovative
product” at the time, says the Boston Consulting Group. Even more important: It
was produced by an industry willing to hire people, invest in research and
development, and market itself when others weren’t. Which is to say, it was an
industry willing to take some risks. Eighty years later, not much has changed: The
economy is sour, and it’s time to be contrarian. “This is the time of
opportunity,” says Yoram Wind, a marketing professor at the Wharton School. “When
times are good, people add things, they do more things–but not all of that is
leading to a return. Now is a chance to ask, Can we do things more efficiently?”
That may explain why companies such as Netflix and Gap have made big, structural
changes in hopes of resetting their trajectories. But in this climate, not all
shake-ups work well. So who’s taking the right risks? In the list below and the
pages that follow, we offer a guide to this moment of fear and change.