Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Week 8 Postmortem

Sorry for the delay, but I’ve been a busy man.

Just this morning I have done the following: gym, shower, get kid ready for school, make him lunch, take other son out for breakfast, buy new running sneakers, stop at Target Wonderland (officially known as GreatLand, but I prefer my version) for a new USB drive and toys for both boys, back home to get this entry started, stop writing to go grocery shopping, get back to this.

Those Army bitches ain’t got shit on me.

If you’re wondering, eldest has the day off because it’s election day here in Massachusetts. When I was a kid we simply ate lunch at our desks. Now everyone has an extra day off. The reasoning is security, but I can’t remember one kid being stolen from school by some random dude showing up to cast a ballot. Bullshit! I call bullshit!

Let’s get to football.

I wanted to share two posts from our fantasy website. Both were posted by different guys who – coincidentally enough – are tied for last.

Post #1 by the same guy that was 11-0 at one point last season: “Alright, someone propose a trade - who wants Michael Turner? Kurt Warner? Ochocinco? I don't give a fuck...Pick a player(s), any player(s) and get back to me.”

Note: He mentioned Turner before last night’s game. I asked this morning if Turner was still available. No response, yet, but if so I might make him an offer. I need running back help and Turner looked great.

Post #2 by the guy that hosts the draft every year: “It's safe to say that this will be my last season playing "Fantasy Football", it's making me insane! There is nothing "Fantasizing" about it, we should start calling it "Fuck you up in the head every weekend Football"What I don't understand about this game is the projected scores! Everyone in this league will get a projected score in any given week of 120 points for example, and everyone will score 150 points or better, except for me because I suck, and my team sucks, and I'm not allowed to score over 120 points in this hellish game! P.S.: I'm gonna go jump off a bridge or something!”

My response to this was: ‘Can we still have the draft at your place?’

As you can see Fantasy Football can take a toll.

As can the season itself. Since we’re nearly at the halfway mark, let’s check out the teams themselves. I’ll split them into categories to make things more organized. Everyone likes organized, right?

CONTENDERS

New Orleans Saints (7-0): Taking into account the Buffalo, Miami and last night’s Atlanta game, it sure looks like this Saints team can win any type of game. Shut down their passing and they’ll run it on you; build a huge lead and they’ll come back; get into a shootout with them and you’ll get burned.

For the record, this is what the rest of their schedule looks like: Carolina, at St Louis, at Tampa, New England, at Washington, at Atlanta, Dallas (what the fuck will the over be in that game?), Tampa Bay, at Carolina. Realistically, this team can finish 14-2. Easily.

Indianapolis Colts (7-0): Another team that seems to win any style of game. For the first time in a long time, they don’t need a huge game from Manning in order to win. Defense is much better than it’s been in a while. Still…

…who have they beaten? They barely beat Jacksonville; they barely beat the Dolphins and the 49ers. Like everyone else in the league they womped on Seattle, Tennessee and St Louis. The only quality win was against the Cardinals who weren’t fully figured out, yet.

We should know more about them in the coming weeks: Texans twice, Pats, Ravens, and Broncos on Dec 13th. Mark your calendars for that one.

Minnesota Vikings (6-1): Yeah, I’m putting them here, but I’m still not sold. The 49ers win was an answered prayer, they didn’t beat the Ravens; merely survived them and they’ve beaten up on the Lions, Rams, Packers (twice) and Browns. Their one loss was at Pittsburgh when 2008 Favre briefly reappeared.

That said, look at the rest of their schedule after their bye next week: Detroit, Seattle, Chicago (three in a row at home? WTF?), at Arizona, Cincinnati, at Carolina, at Chicago, finishing up with the Giants at home. The Bears seem like a team that will cause them problems so let’s figure a split. Possible loss in Arizona. Then what? Giants might not be any good. Maybe the Bengals can keep it up and knock them off, but they’ll be playing in the Metrodome. We’re easily looking at 13-3, maybe even 14-2.

And I still won’t buy it. Anyone else seeing 13-3, first round bye, then Favre throwing a killer interception in the Viking’s playoff game? History repeating itself?

Denver Broncos (6-1): Even after the Ravens loss, I like this team. I’m buying into them more than the Vikings, that’s for sure. Expect a bit of a drop off with the Steelers coming for a visit and a trip to Indy, but they also get Kansas City twice, Oakland and Washington so they should cruise into the playoffs despite a few upcoming losses.

UP AND COMING

New England Patriots (5-2): Don’t look behind you, but the Patriots’ offense is suddenly clicking, they have exactly two contenders to deal with the rest of the way (at Indy, at New Orleans) and their youngish defense is starting to gel. 12-4 is a definite possibility.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2): The Vikings game was a reminder not to forget these guys. They certainly seem to be snapping out of their Super Bowl stupor. The problem for the Steelers is a tough remaining schedule: Ravens twice, Bengals, with Denver and Green Bay sprinkled in. Green Bay may be no threat, but it’s tough to tell (see below).

Cincinnati Bengals (5-2): Would you have bet a thousand bucks at the beginning of the season that the Bengals and Steelers would have the same record at this point? Me neither. Kind of bizarre that one of these teams – Steelers, Bengals, Ravens – will be left out of the playoffs. Shockingly, this seems to be the one team that has all the components to make a real life, no shit this time, playoff run. Good (and finally healthy) QB, top notch running game, solid defense. Considering their recent history, it sure seems like something bad is about to happen.

Arizona Cardinals (4-3): They get here simply for being the best team in a crappy division. Although if San Fran can figure it out in the second half, they better watch out.

Winner of the NFC East: With Dallas and Philly at 5-2 and the Giants slipping back to 5-3, figure the winner of this division is going to cause some headaches for their first round opponent. And, no, I’m not including Washington in this conversation.

YOU TELL ME – I CAN’T FIGURE THEM

Green Bay Packers (4-3): I can’t figure out if they are just mediocre or the Vikings are simply a horrible matchup for them. They beat up on the lower teams and knocked off the Bears, but which is the real team? We’ll know more after the Dallas game. I hope.

Chicago Bears (4-3): Team BiPolar! They beat the Steelers and get crushed by the Bengals. They beat Detroit then lose to Atlanta. They beat the Browns….oh…wait…everyone does that.

I get the impression that perhaps this is Cutler’s personality taking over the team. Talented, yet temperamental; flashes of what could be followed by under achievement. Have a tough second half, too.

Atlanta Falcons (4-3): Calling it now. This will be one of the NFC Wild Card teams. They looked good in two losses (at Dallas and at New Orleans), Turner looked fantastic against a good defense, and a much easier second half schedule has this team looking at 11-5 at worst.

Baltimore Ravens (4-3): Their defense isn’t even close to what it was even though it decided to show up against the Broncos. You can run on them now and they seem especially susceptible to screens and delayed draw plays. In other words, they’re trying so hard to sack the quarterback rather than playing defense they can be had. Also, with Flacco coming back to earth, they aren’t nearly as potent.

Houston Texans (5-3): I was tempted to put them in the ‘Up and Coming’ but noticed they’ve only beaten one good team all year (Bengals). They are definitely playing better and I loved the benching of Steve Slaton last week simply to get everyone’s attention. Let’s see how they play against the Colts this Sunday before we move them out of here.

New York Jets (4-4): Not seeing it. Although watch out for the new connection between Sanchez and tight end Dustin Keller. They looked like a Manning – Clark Jr for a lot of the second half.

Miami Dolphins (3-4): They play ever team tough, but have had a killer first half schedule. The second half eases a bit, but they still have the Pats twice and the Steelers. They can cause their opponents fits, but don’t seem to have much staying power. If Henne can improve, this might be a team to be reckoned with.

San Diego Chargers (4-3): They’ve lost to Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Denver. They’ve beaten Oakland twice, the Dolphins, and the Chiefs. That sure sounds like a 9-7 or 8-8 team to me.

Carolina Panthers (3-4): What do you know? Running the ball and taking no chances with The Interception Kid is paying off. That win over the Cardinals opened some eyes. Let’s see where they take it from here.

San Francisco 49ers (3-4): They seem to be just good enough on both sides of the ball, but not quite good enough to make anything stick. I like the foundation, though, and they should continue to improve. The end of this year should tell us more about next year.

Question: Why is it Favre's fault the Vikings lost at Pittsburg? Apparently that's the word on the street, although I missed the game due to sightseeing in D.C. But after looking at the replays and stats, Both teams played tuff until one defense prevailed. The fumble in the fourth quarter was not Favre's fault, as that can happen to any given quarterback on any given Sunday, including the best of the best (well except for Brady, damn tuck rule!). The interception was also not 100% Favre's fault. How can it be when it was tipped up in the air by the receiver (in this case Chester Taylor). Granted it may have been a throw not exactly on target, but yet again, if you play in the NFL and a pass hits your hands, then it was on target. Frankly a Super Bowl of the Steelers and Vikings would be pretty exciting. If Favre throws for 330 plus yards and one interception in a given week, I'll take it, it's better than any of the Vikings previous quarterbacks in recent years could do. That's not too bad of a day for any QB in the NFL.-Mowan

Mowan, you're right, it wasn't 100% Favre's fault, but at least 70%. My issue isn't with Favre himself (although he does strike me as an ego out of control type; please refer to Clemens, Roger) but with the media coverage of him. He can literally do no wrong. And when he does wrong, nobody calls him on it. It's always something else that must have gone wrong.

The offensive line didn't hold; Taylor should have caught a 300 mph football thrown over his head from 2 feet away. Just be objective about things.

The Pitt game was 85% Favre's fault and 15% Taylor's fault. Favre fumbled and then he overthrew Taylor on a screen pass. Take away thos 14 points and the Vikes win. Still, without Favre their 5-3 at best with T-Jack. It's not so much Favre as it is a reliable quarterback. The Vikings have been set up to win for 2007-present, but the QB was holding them back. I think they beat the Saints in NOLA or Minny. The Vikes never have to send more than 4 to get pressure and the Saints are most deadly against the blitz. That said, I still think the Pats, Colts, and Steelers are better.

That loss to Pittsburgh was mostly due to the turnovers. Also, the Vikes are so vulnerable to a good passing offense it makes me laugh. Especially with Antoine Winfield out, they'd get torched by any QB with good experience and a solid crew around him. I just hope Minnesota is ready for 13-3 with a second round playoff loss.

There is so much hate for the Vikings around the country right now it's crazy. Which I guess is warranted because of Favre, but why do so many people refuse to believe they're any good?

I'm speaking generally, but using you as an example Beach, since I'm commenting on your blog, you say that the Pats are starting to click because they rolled up a ton of points on the Titans and Bucs, two of the worst teams in the NFL; but the Vikings beat the Packers twice (once in Lambeau, NEVER an easy place to play) Ravens, 49ers, and then the Browns, Lions, and Rams, teams who are in the same class as the Titans and Bucs, and you say you're not sold? I don't get it. What do the Vikes have to do to impress people?

Because, Hamman, the 49ers win was - quite simply - luck and it came at home. The Ravens game saw them blow a 21 point lead in one quarter and won because the Ravens missed a field goal. Again - at home. It's not the kind of victories that inspire confidence.

As for the 2 Packer wins, there is still serious questions about whether they're any good. You'll notice I did put the Vikings in the contender section, so you have to give them the benefit of the doubt.

Note, if the 49ers don't block the kick at the end of the first half, the Vikings win the game w/o the TD at the end of the game. Call it what you want, but a blocked field goal attempt returned for a TD is arguably as likely as a great pass to an open receiver in the end zone for a TD (even with no time remaining). Vikings are legit, no questions about it. Everyone is going crazy because they can't handle the fact that Minnesota is a good team, lead via quarterback by one of it's long time rivals! Go Vikes Go!-Mowan