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The numbers, which are based on party identification of adults in national tracking polls, paint a stark portrait of the challenge facing Republicans not just in the 2010 midterm election but also in the 2012 presidential race.

There are currently 29 states in which Democrats enjoy a 10-percentage point (or more) edge on party identification. Compare that to just four states where the Republican edge is ten points or higher (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Alaska) and one (Alabama) that leans toward the GOP.

Add up the 29 states that are in the solidly Democratic category, according to Gallup, and you get 350 electoral votes; add up the four states in the solidly Republican category and you get 15 electoral votes.

To be sure, these numbers should not be read as a direct indicator of what the 2012 election landscape will look like as voters often identify with one party while voting for another. For example, four of the states that are identified as solidly Democratic (West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas and Missouri) went for John McCain in the 2008 presidential election.

Still, the trend lines apparent in the Gallup data have to be disturbing for Republicans.

As compared to Gallup's yearly national data in 2008, nine states changed classification in the first half of 2009. Six of those states (Virginia, Indiana, Florida, Georgia, South Dakota and Nebraska) moved toward Democrats; just three (Colorado, Nevada and Alabama) moved toward Republicans.

Lots can change in a year (or three) in politics. But, Democrats have to feel good about where they stand in the states at the moment.

Maybe if the Republicans would get rid of the extreme members of their party, the party would have wider appeal. Oh yea, the extreme members are all they have left in their party.

The Repubs did this to themselves by being the party of God, guns gays and pro-lifers no matter how bad things got in the land. They ignored our real problems and pushed divisive social issues instead. And it worked for quite a while (since Reagan) while the country crashed and burned. We now are living the results of their policies. They have no answers to our problems and hope stalling the change in congress and pushing lies and hate will win folks back to their side. They even have to bus folks in to townhall meetings to come across as hateful jerks by yelling and screaming. They are the teabaggers and hateful white folks that came to the Palin rallies. I am white, and totally disgusted and embarrassed by these ignorant white people who do not have a clue. Wake up folks!

Republican policies of the last 30 years have left America in shambles. An entire generation grew up listening to their rhetoric and they've seen the result.

The only ones left in the Party are the old southern former Democrats who became Republicans after the passage of the civil rights amendment. The same ones who refuse to accept a black man as President. The same ones for whom facts mean nothing, belief means everything (the bible, the birth certificate).

Those few remaining red states become as irrelevant as the Republican Party. Americans will not forget the damage they've done.

By 2012 the presidency could be guaranteed to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.

The National Popular Vote bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes--that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 29 state legislative chambers, in small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Oregon, and both houses in California, Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, and Washington. These five states possess 61 electoral votes -- 23% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

[§338-17.8] Certificates for children born out of State. (a) Upon application of an adult or the legal parents of a minor child, the director of health shall issue a birth certificate for such adult or minor, provided that proof has been submitted to the director of health that the legal parents of such individual while living without the Territory or State of Hawaii had declared the Territory or State of Hawaii as their legal residence for at least one year immediately preceding the birth or adoption of such child.

JAKED posted:
Because Hawaiian law at the time of Obama's birth allowed for out-of-State registrations, which would result in the SHORT FORM everyone has seen. The LONG FORM would indictate whether it was an out-of-State birth. Why won't he simply release it?

This is actually incorrect information. Hawaii NEVER allowed out of state registrations and he cannot show proof of it because there is none.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and their tin foil hats, but don't lie. These days? It's too easy to prove a lie.
Many states use short form. Indiana is one.
One would also have to suppose that the GOP is made up of total idiots since they did everything they could to bring Obama down before the election according to the tin hatters they missed his not being an American? and some uneducated tin hatters found proof? LOL I see today where the head tin hat attorney is in big trouble for submitting a fake birth certificate to the courts. Nice.

While it's nice that Democrats have the Party ID advantage in so many states, you have to remember that Democrats historically tend to be less cohesive than Republicans. Democratic self-identifiers typically, because the party tends to be more diverse, and representative of a broader range of interests, than are Republicans who are traditionally tied to corporate interests and more recently also to reactionary social policies, are more likely to split to oppose candidates of their own party than are Republicans.

We should have no illusions that states like Tennessee, Georgia, Oklahoma, and South Dakota, which are classified as "leaning Democratic" are actually fertile ground for Democrats. These states tend to support Republicans at the Presidential and Senatorial levels. Among those states classified as "solidly Democratic" Kentucky, West Virginia, and Arkansas were solidly Republican at the Presidential level in all post-Clinton elections. Democrats do have a chance in these states, or even an edge below the Presidential level, less so in Kentucky than in the other two. Other states listed as solidly Democratic, like Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia should be regarded as "swing" states at both the Presidential and Senatorial levels until we have actual election returns that validate the alleged Democratic tendencies of these states.

The one big positive for Democrats is the solidity of the Industrial Midwest/North Central/Great Lakes region. Not unusual to see Democrats with a significant advantage in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois, but to also have a double-digit advantage in Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, and Indiana (the state here that should be regarded with some real skepticism due to its history as the most conservative and Republican of these states) is a significant development for Democrats.

Lots can change in a year (or three) in politics. But, Democrats have to feel good about where they stand in the states at the moment.

==

And how do you feel about it, Chris?

There's a perception among some of we who post regularly here that your personal sympathies, or perhaps more accurately your professional ones, lie with the Republicans. I denied this months ago but a few dozen "Palin 2012" and Republican resurgence and improbably excited offerings about Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney etc. have kind of brought me around.

And at the end of the day, there remains the sad fact that the GOP shows very little interest in what's good for the country, and a whole lot of interest in ideological extremity. They're still the party of torture, the party of science denial, of thinly disguised appeals to racism, homophobia, and assorted hatreds.

You're an intelligent man, what appeal could they possibly have for you? In my experience since oh, 2004 and increasingly so since then, the GOP is the party of angry stupid people.

With 350 EVs in the bag for the Democrats and only 15 for the GOP, maybe we can have a respite from those "Republican resurgence" posts for a while. Wonder what it would take to get some of those neutral states into the Democrats' camp?

A few more putdowns of Latinos? Another lunatic screaming that Obama isn't a citizen? More Party of No tactics? Another groveling to Rush Limbaugh?

Dunno what it'll be but you can bet your other shirt the GOP will find a way to alienate more voters.

For the record, I didn't bring up Obama's birth certificate on this thread -- I wasn't even going to post at all until "drindl" claimed that everyone else leaves once "kingofkook" takes over a thread with his nonstop posting -- blame her for provoking this fight by urging Mr. Cillizza to "ban [KoZ] if he wants to save his blog." Like DDAWD said, you two should simply ignore our posts.

No need (I also know that the earth circles the sun and that water is not technically "wet" regardless of how many times anyone says otherwise).

If the thread tomorrow includes the birthdate of our "President" in Honolulu, Hawaii -- I realize that Mr. Cillizza believes that Obama was born in the United States -- would a discussion of his birth certificate (or lack thereof) be considered "off-topic"? I would think such a debate to be very relevant.

Curious how Obama being born just ONE YEAR earlier (before Hawaii was admitted as a State) would have prevented him from running for President without a doubt.

"chrisfox8: the worst thing you could do to JakeD would be to simply ignore him, I know it is difficult, I can't seem to do it either. But since he thrives on negative attention I can only think he would simply dry up and go away if ignored long enough.

chrisfox8: the worst thing you could do to JakeD would be to simply ignore him, I know it is difficult, I can't seem to do it either. But since he thrives on negative attention I can only think he would simply dry up and go away if ignored long enough.

This is a racial "proxy" issue as Rachel Maddow has said. But anyway...there is no long form certificate. The only certificate is the one that has been posted a million times on the Internet by the State of Hawaii, BHO, and everybody else. Among people of good will, there is no "debate" about the certificate any more than there is about whether water is wet.

So, what you're saying is that the director of public records for the State of Hawaii and its Republican Governor have NOT personally seen and/or certified that they have Obama's original birth certificate in their archives?

Just to follow up: it appears Taitz MAY have been scammed by some pretty smart Kenyans who knew her bigotry would trump her reason. (Sort of like the Nigerian email scams offering you $10 million if you'll just give them 5,000.)

But the fake birth certificate for BHO is really funny: it has numerous clues it is fake that would be picked up by any normal person. For example, a reference to "EF Lavender," which is a laundry detergent in Africa.

MSNBC's Rachel Maddow has said the birther issue is just a "stand-in" for overt racial attacks against BHO. Sounds about right.

There is no long form birth certificate. From Lou Dobbs's boss:

"The television company's president, Jon Klein told staffers of Lou Dobbs Tonight that the controversy regarding the legitimacy of Mr Obama's birth certificate now appeared to be a "dead" story.

In an email, he said that CNN researchers had determined that Hawaiian officials discarded paper documents in 2001. Because of that, Obama's long-form birth certificate no longer exists and the shorter certificate of live birth that has been made public is the sole official record. "It seems to definitively answer the question," he said."

How can that be if the "The USA Today" (for the umpteenth time), the director of public records for the State of Hawaii, and its Republican Governor, have all personally seen and "absolutely confirmed" that Obama was born in Honolulu?

You might not call people names, Jake, but you engage in every kind of hostility available in print. You're snide, you're sarcastic, you engage in passive-aggression, and more than all these you hijack threads with stuff nobody cares about, such as your birth certificate obsession.

Someone, I think it was Daily Kos, revealed...there is no "longform" birth certificate, there never was. There is no such thing. Pure fiction.

And the Joan of Arc of Birthers, Orly Taitz. Allegedly, she's in hot water today for presenting to a U.S. court as authentic what appears to be a forged Kenyan birth certificate for our 44th President. Defrauding a U.S. court--if that's what she did--is REAL serious business.

"a few nuts" = 58% of Republicans (and, admittedly, a smaller percentage of Independents and Democrats), but more than just a "few nuts" who have doubts about Obama's birthplace. Yet another example of name-calling from the left.

If jaked is not at the top of the chopping block, then I think we can have a pretty good bearing on where Chris C stands politically. The guy has absolutely no redeeming qualities to add to this place. All he does is instigate. Yeah, perhaps Chris C should look at some of the people who mindlessly flood the board with their feigned indignations, but jaked should be the first to go.

==

I think he's the only one who presumes he's not at the top of the list.

"The "Battle for America" blog was heavily populated with overt idiocy from none other than chrisuxcox ...
Posted by: king_of_zouk | August 3, 2009 4:51 PM |"
---
Zouk, this is not an appropriate venue for you to discuss your repressed fantasies, try the link below.
www.larrycraig.com

Tip of the cap to Chris. A solid fact-based piece of information that aligns with reality (non-Rasmussen) polling and data. That's what I'm talking about! Now let's stick with that from now on.
__________

This Fix information tracks what all the neutral analysts have been saying for months: sure, in isolated cases, you see Republicans ahead of Dems (see McDonnell over Deeds in Va.; unknown GOPer against Paterson in NY; Toomey v. Specter)--almost always a function of the relative strengths of the candidates and local issues.

But IN GENERAL the GOP has become a conservative Southern party appealing to a small and shrinking demographic (teabaggers, birthers, supremacists, secessionists, neo-cons, neo-segs).

Even McCain admitted this week that without the GOP making inroads in the Latino community (which won't happen for, say, SIX generations thanks to Rush, Lou Dobbs, and Tancredo (thanks for the race-baiting, guys)), the GOP has no future in our lifetime. Wait till the tens of millions of innocent kids slurred by the Dobbs crowd as "anchor babies" start to vote.

Well, I disagree that I should be the first to go -- short of not posting at all (their obvious goal) I can't control all of the name-calling directed at my posts -- if banning me is the only way that Mr. Cillizza feels he is justified in banning "chrisfox8", "drindl" and "koolkat_1960", I am willing to make that sacrifice.

If jaked is not at the top of the chopping block, then I think we can have a pretty good bearing on where Chris C stands politically. The guy has absolutely no redeeming qualities to add to this place. All he does is instigate. Yeah, perhaps Chris C should look at some of the people who mindlessly flood the board with their feigned indignations, but jaked should be the first to go.

I have never called anyone here a "racist" -- ad hominem personal attacks have no place in civilized debate and should be dealt with severely -- as I noted, from another thread, our gracious host has not ruled out banning IP addresses: "Those who persist in relentless name-calling should we be warned."

chrisfox8:
"I don't call "anyone who disagrees with me" a racist, I call people who write racist posts racists."

And as your prior posts make clear, a post is considered racist if it is negative toward Obama in any way, and since he's black, the poster must be racist if they disagree with Obama (and, by extension, yourself).

Yes, you have made it crystal clear. And you have zero credibility left to add to any discussion, since pretty much any discussion board I've seen you post on ends up with you calling someone racist.

It's the intellectually deprived posters such as yourself who use the 'racist' label at every turn that do a great disservice to the minorities who experience real racism. As your posts make evident, you obviously have no grasp on what 'racism' means...

For the record, I am not arguing the merits (or lack thereof) as to this "conspiracy theory" (the Catholic Church labeled the heliocentric hypothesis much worse) currently -- besides, no grand conspiracy was needed, outside of his own mother -- my link simply goes to disprove the following:

Party Identification is a nice thing to have on your side, but elections are heavily determined by candidates as well (Example: Idaho's 1st congressional district in 2008). Democrats will need good turnout or at least not have Republicans excited about the midterm elections.

"For example, four of the states that are identified as solidly Democratic (West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas and Missouri) went for John McCain in the 2008 presidential election."

I spent 8 years in West Virginia, and have been to the other 3 states as well. To be sure, CC, these folks didn't vote FOR McCain so much as they voted AGAINST the very idea of having an African-American president. Sad.

A refence to the USA Today story that went over, for the umpteenth time, the fact that the State of Hawaii, and its Republican Governor, have absolutely confirmed that Obama was born in Honolulu.

Thanks for the reminder, Jake.

(Oh, and as you know, the published "short form" does list the place of birth as Honolulu.)

I am really conflicted about this. On the one hand, I feel like this idiocy must be addressed, but on the other hand, I'm just feeding the trolls. And yet, it seems like the longer the birthers talk, the crazier all of the anti-administration groups appear. Hmmm.

pResident Obama's birth certificate issue is NOT off topic when Mr. Cillizza posts to the "The USA Today" story on said subject. Regardless, as already pointed out, I was not the one who brought it up on this this thread.

The "Battle for America" blog was heavily populated with overt idiocy from none other than chrisuxcox ONLY. It was that venue where the host chimed in with the warning.

Of course the mindless imbecile cruises on, oblivious as to others around him. (not the host chris, the coxsuxing one)

My only concern is that without this blog, the poor pitiful loon will be completely alone. Last weekend he had an argument with himself at 3 in the morning here. Even moonbat drivl is not that pathetic.

chrisfox8:
"And banning accounts is ineffectual too; anyone can create a new mail account on any one of thousands of web-hosted email services..."

True, but your hate-filled off-topic rants calling anyone who disagrees with you a 'racist' will be pretty easy to recognize, so no matter what name you post under it will be fairly easy to identify you.

drindl and chrixfox8 can't be banned fast enough. All it takes is one post disagreeing with something they say, and the start hammering the poster with 'racist' and other name-calling crap. And like this thread, it comes out of nowhere and has nothing to do with the topic.

The last time either one posted something that actually added to a discussion was....I'll have to search long and hard to find it.

Add to that chrisfox8's repeated sexist and derrogatory insuations about anything related to Palin, and I think it's time for CC to block him for good.

does that sound like a party in charge with overwhelming support and confidence in their agenda? sounds like a loser desperate to point the finger away from the overall incompetence of his "leadership".

==

No, it sounds like a clear and effective put-down of GOP opposition that will resonate well among voters who want the GOP to cut the crap and grow up.

The issue of President Barack Obama’s birth made it to the Senate floor Monday, as Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) defended the president’s citizenship in a sign of growing frustration and partisanship. Speaking to open the chamber’s daily session, Reid said Republicans are raising the issue of Obama’s birth to distract the public and wound the president’s agenda. Referring to it as “an artificial controversy,” Reid said..

does that sound like a party in charge with overwhelming support and confidence in their agenda? sounds like a loser desperate to point the finger away from the overall incompetence of his "leadership".

There really is no way to ban people from public forums. If you ban IPs then all they have to do is go through a proxy server, or an anonymization server that does cookies, or even just power-cycle the ol' cable modem and get a new IP. Moreover, IPs don't necessarily map to a single user; most of my posting is through a corporate proxy server, which means it's the same IP for hundreds of people. Potentially many thousands.

And banning accounts is ineffectual too; anyone can create a new mail account on any one of thousands of web-hosted email services, almost all of them free, and be back here in seconds.

It would be much more effective to take note of the circumstances under which conversations go well here, and encourage that.

We have one poster here, king_of_zouk, who does more "name-calling" and much more offensive name-calling, than everyone else who posts here put together. And name-calling isn't the big disruption here; zouk aside, most of the name-calling represents exasperation with repeated trolling.

It's always off-topic, Jake, that's never stopped you from hijacking thread after thread with it.

The birther thing was the creation of Jerome Corsi, a pudgy and pasty professional slanderer who writes right-wing potboilers. In the same book he claims Obama is a Muslim, he's a Manchurian candidate, and all kinds of related saucer-suicide-cult crap.

That's the kind of company you're in. Not even Coulter and O'Reilly are crazy enough to go there.

Is the Inspector General at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence about to crack down on U.S. government intelligence agencies that deploy legions of paid "blog-spammers" while conducting surveillance programs in the name of national security?

Speculation has it that this tactic -- apparently intended to divert attention from reader postings that do not comport with the ideological outlook of agency bureaucrats -- has come to the attention of Roslyn Mazer, inspector general in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

While there is no official confirmation, media watchers are theorizing that her office may formulate formal guidelines to ensure that such activity does not violate the Constitutional rights of media outlets, or their readers, or run afoul of federal statutes and regulations that prohibit agencies from engaging in domestic propaganda campaigns.

While it cannot be confirmed at this time, it is believed that this issue was brought to the attention of the IG/DNI by a continuous stream of blog-spamming inflicted upon The Washington Post's "The Fix" political blog, authored by Chris Cillizza.

Ironically, it is hypothesized that algorithmic analysis of political blog surveillance that specifically mentioned the name of Ms. Mazer may have brought the issue of blog-spamming to her personal attention.

TO ACTUALLY POST SOMETHING ON A BLOG IN ORDER TO CONVINCE ONESELF? THOSE ARE SOME DARK DEMONS LOCKED UP IN THAT CAGE! ONCE YOU RELEASE THOSE FEARS, THINGS WILL START TO GET BETTER... YOU MUST HAIL TO OBAMA FIRST!
----
hosting beer summits, and devoting hours, even days, to such a banal non-issue, the President continues to look quite small. By continuing rather than ending the silliness, he looks frivolous and strangely unaware of his own role in the nation. By trying to fix something he never should have been involved in the first place, he looks arrogant.

Apologies are under-rated and oft-resisted. It can be painful to admit to others that you have been wrong. Paradoxically, however, in making the admission of error, you actually rise in the eyes of others. They respect you more, not less. They recognize that you are honest, know your own limits, and sincerely want what is best for others. President Obama would do well to learn this lesson. Hubris hides humility. And failing to utter three simple words can sink a leader, even a President.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | August 3, 2009 1:51 PM | Report abuse

Maybe Obimbo and his teleprompter should go on the air, give a big nonsense speech again, stumble all around without saying anything, plant a few lies, a few insults, accuse doctors of greed, cops of racism, companies of ineptitude and praise the frugality of liberal pork.

that would pretty much seal the fate of his agenda - utter failure due to voters understanding the situation.

If they really wanted to fix things they would eliminate regulation that hamper the industry state-by-state and limit abusive law suits. but that is just so anti Lib and pro business it will never see the light of day.

"I've never claimed that pResident Obama was born in Kenya -- I have noted that his paternal grandmother so stated -- that's more than "without ANY evidence" "

Then your case is really weak if that's all you have. As soon as the old woman allegedly said this, another relative (Obama's uncle, I think, but I may be wrong on that) instantly jumped in and said that she had been misunderstood. And it was not after reflection, it was instant.

THESE LONG WINDED SPEECHS HERE AREN'T GOING TO CHANGE THE FACT THAT YOU ARE NOW A SECOND CLASS CITIZEN... HOW DOES THE ASS TASTE?!
--------------------------
In the days before President Obama's last news conference, as the networks weighed whether to give up a chunk of their precious prime time, Rahm Emanuel went straight to the top.

Rather than calling ABC, the White House chief of staff phoned Bob Iger, chief executive of parent company Disney. Instead of contacting NBC, Emanuel went to Jeffrey Immelt, the chief executive of General Electric. He also spoke with Les Moonves, the chief executive of CBS, the company spun off from Viacom.

Whether this amounted to undue pressure or plain old Chicago arm-twisting, Emanuel got results: the fourth hour of lucrative network time for his boss in six months. But network executives have been privately complaining to White House officials that they cannot afford to keep airing these sessions in the current economic downturn.

The networks "absolutely" feel pressured, says Paul Friedman, CBS's senior vice president: "It's an enormous financial cost when the president replaces one of those prime-time hours. The news divisions also have mixed feelings about whether they are being used."

While it is interesting to see how a president handles questions, Friedman says, "there was nothing" at the July 22 session, which was dominated by health-care questions. "There hardly ever is these days, because there's so much coverage all the time.

Obama is basically a media creation. And like all media creations, the networks cannot resist overusing their new toy until the public gets tired of it. Ratings for Obama's last presser were way down and if it hadn't been for the Gates fiasco, nothing new would have come out of it.

But now the networks are stuck and Rhambo is taking full advantage. It is likely Obama will go to the well again in September or October, seeking another prime time hour to push for passage of whatever comes out of Congress on health care. It will take more arm twisting from Emanuel and probably some public shaming from Obama, but they will almost certainly get their way.

The media created this monster and now have to deal with the consequences.

"To be sure, these numbers should not be read as a direct indicator of what the 2012 election landscape will look like as voters often identify with one party while voting for another. For example, four of the states that are identified as solidly Democratic (West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas and Missouri) went for John McCain in the 2008 presidential election."

==

But that was 2008, before the GOP degenerated into infantile oppositional belligerence instead of accepting their reduced role and influence. They've lost a lot of support since the election for that very reason and so far are showing no signs of growing up, or even recognizing that they need to.

Who supports the GOP now? Mostly a bunch of nuts and kooks. They even claim to not be Republicans. Go figure.

@mikeinmidland: just an observation, most of the best discussions we've had in here have been topics that came up in drift.

I've been on message boards, blogs, etc. where topic relevance was enforced and frankly it doesn't really work very well. Not only does it feel grade-school repressive, with annoying relevance police splitting hairs about what's on and not on topic, but there really is only so much one can say without running into repetition and flame wars.

President Obama's cash for clunkers program is an unexpectedly resounding success and has significantly improved car sales. That means that some dealerships can hire back salespeople they had to let go a few months ago.

On a more general point, I favor using the tax code and the law to nudge society in directions we deem favorable, and strongly disfavor the economic pacifism represented by "trust in the marketplace" formulations.

Having read your posts for some months now, I'm comfortable in presuming that pretty much everything you post is a lie. When you deny writing things that we all read only a few days ago you're just plain silly.

Scream about banning all you want. You are a racist and a liar, and by your own endlessly repeated words.

AndyR3 writes
"I also would not say SC is competive but the significant Black population in SC give the democrats a solid base which they can build off of. The Black population in SC is about 30% I think. Also there is a growing number of Latino voters in North and South Carolina and the GOP seems to be shooting themselves in the foot when it comes to this voting block. That is why the data shows SC as being 'competitive'."

The danger for the Dems is in taking such voter blocks for granted. In Obama they found a candidate that enthused large numbers of people from a variety of backgrounds. Knowing that they can't count on that support automatically in the future, they need to use this opportunity - control of the WH & Congress - to demonstrate that they, as a party, are capable of delivering. As a party, they're enjoying a lot of success for two reasons: 1) the manifold failures of the Bush admin & GOP and 2) Obama's ability to enthuse voters. They need to work together better, as a party, to take advantage of their recent success, because this environment isn't likely to last long.

Actually Mark that distinction makes the poll's indications even more solid; the white males who are the GOP's mainstay are the least likely demographic to make it to the polls. In 2008 the greatest turnout was among black women.

For the record, I am not a member of the Republican Party. That being said, I couldn't care less being falsely called a Republican, racist, etc. especially if it gets "chrisfox8" and "drindl" banned from this site.

Health Care Bill Says Sebelius Must
Develop ‘Measurements of Gender;’
Sebelius Says She Has ‘No Idea’
What That Means

Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius says she has “no idea” about a section of the Senate health-care reform bill that requires her to “develop standards for the measurement of gender”—as opposed to simply relying on “male” and “female”—for use in a new federal database that will collect information about all beneficiaries of government-run or government-supported health care programs.

Of course if you have no idea what you are doing, it is hard to answer at all.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for a second time dodged a question from CNSNews.com Friday about whether she supported prohibiting abortion funding in the health-care reform bill. At a press conference on Friday, CNSNews.com asked: ''Could you please give me a yes-or-no answer on whether or not you personally, Speaker Pelosi, support expressly prohibiting the funding of abortion through the federally subsidized health care

Can we cease the off-topic side-discussion of Jake's hobbyhorse and talk about the poll results showing a national swing to the Democratic Party?

I would suspect that the craziness of the GOP, including its remaining members' preoccupation with fluff and trivia and crazy conspiracies, has something to do with the continuing abandonment of the GOP. Nobody wants to be on record as supporting nuts.

Because Hawaiian law at the time of Obama's birth allowed for out-of-State registrations, which would result in the SHORT FORM everyone has seen. The LONG FORM would indictate whether it was an out-of-State birth. Why won't he simply release it?

"Obama’s election, far from alleviating paranoia in the white fringe, has only compounded it. There is no purer expression of this animus than to claim that Obama is literally not an American — or, as Sarah Palin would have it, not a “real American.” The birth-certificate canard is just the latest version of those campaign-year attempts to strip Obama of his American identity with faux controversies over flag pins, the Pledge of Allegiance and his middle name. Last summer, Cokie Roberts of ABC News even faulted him for taking a vacation in his home state of Hawaii, which she described as a “foreign, exotic place,” in contrast to her proposed choice of Myrtle Beach, S.C., in the real America of Dixie."

Not even Ann Coulter is on board with this crap. How does it feel to be further over the edge than her?

Obama's birth certificate is not the only document at issue. WND has reported that among the documentation not yet available for Obama includes his kindergarten records, his Punahou school records, his Occidental College records, his Columbia University records, his Columbia thesis, his Harvard Law School records, his Harvard Law Review articles, his scholarly articles from the University of Chicago, his passport, his medical records, his files from his years as an Illinois state senator, his Illinois State Bar Association records, any baptism records and his adoption records.

Why is the so-called "long form" birth certificate better evidence than what was posted?

Are you alleging fraud or malfeasance by the State of Hawaii?

I remember having to get a copy of my birth certificate to get a driver's license, and later (again) to get a passport. My mom lost some stuff in one of our many moves--not uncommon for a single mother even if she didn't live abroad. That's what the state records offices are good for.

What this all seems to indicate is that neither party has a clue as to what the voters are thinking nor the degree of anxiety voters are feeling over the economy, the bait and switch health care mess, regulatory reform, Congressional ethics, etc. 2010 is going to be bad year to be an incumbent.

WHEN WILL HE SHOW THE SPINE REQUIRED TO TAKE DOWN THE GPS-ACTIVATED 'GESTAPO USA'...

...AND RESTORE THE RULE OF LAW AT THE GRASSROOTS?

An entire civilian secret police apparatus that is covertly committing a silent POLITICIDE revolves around the WARRANTLESS USE OF GPS DEVICES -- to stalk, harass, and yes, torture, unjustly targeted American citizens.

President Obama could disable the mechanics of this persecution matrix with the stroke of a pen...

...an executive order banning the warrantless covert GPS tracking of individuals, even the use of cellphones to track a citizen's comings and goings without a court warrant.

And stop the use of microwave / laser radiation "directed energy weapons" as a silent tool being used by authoritarians to degrade the health of their "targets" -- and even to manipulate their moods, their sleep patterns, even their neurological and physiological "vitals."

The State of Hawaii has repeatedly certified that they have Obama's original birth certificate in their archives. That is as much or more proof than anyone should ever need. But it has also been verified by others and posted online, not to mention the newspaper entries of the time. I am sure that if Barack himself showed up at your door and showed you the document, you would claim it was a forgery. So why bother?

It was only a few threads ago you referred to our president as "Bam Bam the Community Organizer."

"Bam Bam," the little kid from The Flintstones, Pebbles' playmate. You want to claim that isn't racism? Knock yourself out, just don't expect anyone with a brain to believe you.

The President secretly born in Africa? That's not racism? Knock yourself out.

People like you are going to become more and more uncomfortable as non-whites take their places in the very pinnacles of power .. Oprah Winfrey in entertainment. Sonia Sotomayor on the Supreme Court. Barack Hussein® Obama as the President of the United States.

You can bob and weave and point to Alan Keyes as some sort of counterevidence, but Keyes is a whack job and voting for him is a vote for a whack job much more than it's a vote for a black man. It doesn't mean squat.

I find racism and racists deplorable and unworthy. Your racist expression has no place in sober discussion. Quit it.

Mark,
I also would not say SC is competive but the significant Black population in SC give the democrats a solid base which they can build off of. The Black population in SC is about 30% I think. Also there is a growing number of Latino voters in North and South Carolina and the GOP seems to be shooting themselves in the foot when it comes to this voting block. That is why the data shows SC as being 'competitive'.

Actually, this sort of poll is why most people don't trust polls pr statistics. These results are based on *averaging* poll results since Obama's inauguration. CNN and Rassmusen have been doing a snapshot polls and they are leaning negative or very negative overall rating for both Obama and Congress. Obama's negatives are in the mid 50's and the Democratic Congress has negatives in the mid 60's! In the upcoming elections, over half of the gubernatorial elections are rated as tossups and as many as 25% of Congressional incumbents are in serious trouble. All of this is due to the continuing bad economic new. In spite of the cheerleading and "Peter Pan" (wishful thinking) nonsense being done by the MSM and Obama's perpetual campaign machine (no different, I note, than Bush's) the economy is in serious trouble, NOT set for any kind of recovery. When the commercial real estate bubble hits and more banks go under, spiking more inflation and another new high in unemployment, things are going to go to h*ll in a hand basket for all concerned. My prediction, the Democrats loose control of the Senate, retain only the slimmest majority in the House. and loose 8 governorships.

"I find the map a little optimistic myself but hey, who would have EVER thought that North Carolina and Virginia (capitol of the Confederacy fer chrisssake!) would go blue?"

A lot of these states will vote for the right Democrat. KY, LA, and WV all went for Clinton, I believe. It might be asking too much for them to vote for Obama, but they will vote for the right guy.

I might just be too optimistic, but I do see Texas being somewhat of a battleground in 2012. Kind of like Georgia and pre-Palin Alaska were in 2008. Longshots, but on the radar.

Also, I think Arizona might be especially vulnerable to a color change. It's pretty demographically similar to Colorado and New Mexico and would have likely been very competitive if it weren't McCain's home state.

I've never claimed that pResident Obama was born in Kenya -- I have noted that his paternal grandmother so stated -- that's more than "without ANY evidence" (Emphasis Added). In fact, it is direct EYEWITNESS evidence.

Why won't he simply release his LONG FORM birth certificate to resolve the issue once and for all? That's circumstantial evidence too.

I do not believe that map and I do not believe the level of D triumphalism. I am in TX and this state will not be competitive again until around 2014, IMO.

I further do not believe that MS and SC are "competitive". I cannot imagine a responsible poll that thinks SC is competitive.

AndyR3, do I underestimate D support, hitherto unknown in SC?

==

I find the map a little optimistic myself but hey, who would have EVER thought that North Carolina and Virginia (capitol of the Confederacy fer chrisssake!) would go blue?

I mean, look how the GOP is behaving; it's elected representatives are acting like small children screaming for treats and its pundits are pulling all the stops and acting like Civil War era crackers recoiling at Emancipation. It's not at all incredible to believe that support for a party as whacked out as that could fall as far as the map suggests.

Consider that a lot of "loyal Republicans" claim in public their allegiance for a different party.

"Jake, if you expect anyone to take your endless birth certificate troll as anything other than racism, you're simply deluded. Racism it is, along with calling Obama "Bam Bam" and all the rest.

If you don't like being called a racist, stop doing racist posts."

Exactly. There's nothing racist at all in claiming, without any evidence and in the face of substantial evidence to the contrary that the first black president was born in Kenya -- deep, dark Africa. LOL

For the record, I've never called pResident Obama "Bam Bam" (but I fail to see how that is automatically "racist") and the birth certificate issue was actually the basis of a lawsuit by AFRICAN-AMERICAN Alan Keyes. That being said, I couldn't care less being falsely called a racist, especially if it gets you two banned from this site.

In hosting beer summits, and devoting hours, even days, to such a banal non-issue, the President continues to look quite small. By continuing rather than ending the silliness, he looks frivolous and strangely unaware of his own role in the nation. By trying to fix something he never should have been involved in the first place, he looks arrogant.

Apologies are under-rated and oft-resisted. It can be painful to admit to others that you have been wrong. Paradoxically, however, in making the admission of error, you actually rise in the eyes of others. They respect you more, not less. They recognize that you are honest, know your own limits, and sincerely want what is best for others. President Obama would do well to learn this lesson. Hubris hides humility. And failing to utter three simple words can sink a leader, even a President.

"– Cao indicated that he was considering voting in favor of clean energy economy legislation Waxman-Markey. However when it came to the House floor for a vote on June 26, Cao voted against it. Four days later, Boehner handed Cao $2,000. [FEC, accessed 8/3/09]"

I think Cao's problem isn't so much that he's some extremist Republican, its more that he's someone who can be browbeaten. If you've ever met him, he's a pretty reserved, soft spoken guy. This is compounded by the fact that he's facing a near impossible task in getting re-elected and needs all the institutional support he can get.

I won't be voting for him next time around, but he's a good guy and won't be too unhappy if he wins either. He's very different from the typical Republican.

Maybe Obimbo and his teleprompter should go on the air, give a big nonsense speech again, stumble all around without saying anything, plant a few lies, a few insults, accuse doctors of greed, cops of racism, companies of ineptitude and praise the frugality of liberal pork.

that would pretty much seal the fate of his agenda - utter failure due to voters understanding the situation.

If they really wanted to fix things they would eliminate regulation that hamper the industry state-by-state and limit abusive law suits. but that is just so anti Lib and pro business it will never see the light of day.

"Despite voting against the Economic Recovery Act, Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA) is now working to bring Recovery Act money into his district. Last week, the Times-Picayune reported that Cao has been meeting with New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin and Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood to apply to “use stimulus money for additional streetcar expansions and road repairs.” Cao boasted that he is now working to “channel” the money that he opposed to his district:"

For what it's worth, I think Cao was actually in favor of the stimulus. He originally said he was. My feeling is that Cantor put a lot of pressure on him to maintain solidarity. When it looked like the Dems would win anyways, he "changed" his mind.

" An influx of federal stimulus money to state and local governments more than offset a sharp drop in tax collections, helping to put the brakes on the nation's economic decline, new government data show.

The stimulus funds helped reverse six months of spending declines, pushing state and local government expenditures up 4.8% in the second quarter, reports the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

"The money has caused a very sharp change in the path of the economy, which had been in steep decline," said Chad Stone, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in Washington, D.C."

In the days before President Obama's last news conference, as the networks weighed whether to give up a chunk of their precious prime time, Rahm Emanuel went straight to the top.

Rather than calling ABC, the White House chief of staff phoned Bob Iger, chief executive of parent company Disney. Instead of contacting NBC, Emanuel went to Jeffrey Immelt, the chief executive of General Electric. He also spoke with Les Moonves, the chief executive of CBS, the company spun off from Viacom.

Whether this amounted to undue pressure or plain old Chicago arm-twisting, Emanuel got results: the fourth hour of lucrative network time for his boss in six months. But network executives have been privately complaining to White House officials that they cannot afford to keep airing these sessions in the current economic downturn.

The networks "absolutely" feel pressured, says Paul Friedman, CBS's senior vice president: "It's an enormous financial cost when the president replaces one of those prime-time hours. The news divisions also have mixed feelings about whether they are being used."

While it is interesting to see how a president handles questions, Friedman says, "there was nothing" at the July 22 session, which was dominated by health-care questions. "There hardly ever is these days, because there's so much coverage all the time.

Obama is basically a media creation. And like all media creations, the networks cannot resist overusing their new toy until the public gets tired of it. Ratings for Obama's last presser were way down and if it hadn't been for the Gates fiasco, nothing new would have come out of it.

But now the networks are stuck and Rhambo is taking full advantage. It is likely Obama will go to the well again in September or October, seeking another prime time hour to push for passage of whatever comes out of Congress on health care. It will take more arm twisting from Emanuel and probably some public shaming from Obama, but they will almost certainly get their way.

The media created this monster and now have to deal with the consequences.

These statistics show that over the long haul, people's perceptions and affiliations have not changed much. This is in contrast trumpeting of the anti-administration crowd about every little down tick in popularity.

Way back in March, they pointed to the Dow bottoming out, as proof that the administration's policies weren't working (or not going to work, as most had not been implemented yet). Now, with the Dow at it's highest point all year, I don't hear a peep about it. Funny, huh?

Despite voting against the Economic Recovery Act, Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA) is now working to bring Recovery Act money into his district. Last week, the Times-Picayune reported that Cao has been meeting with New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin and Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood to apply to “use stimulus money for additional streetcar expansions and road repairs.” Cao boasted that he is now working to “channel” the money that he opposed to his district:

“Whenever I meet with the mayor it goes extremely well,” Cao said. “Our focus has always been and is today about the recovery issues of the 2nd District. We are trying to look at federal monies that the state has and channeling more of that money to the district.”

Earlier this year, Cao indicated that he would vote for the Economic Recovery Act. “I will vote for it because the 2nd Congressional District needs a stimulus package,” Cao told local reporters at the time. Of course, Cao ultimately joined every single other House Republican in opposing the Recovery Act.

A review of FEC records reveals that the Republican leadership has rewarded Cao for his willingness to tow the party line:

– After voting against the Recovery Act on January 28, House Minority Leader Rep. John Boehner’s (R-OH) PAC gave Cao a check for $5,000 two days later. [FEC, accessed 8/3/09]

– Cao indicated that he was considering voting in favor of clean energy economy legislation Waxman-Markey. However when it came to the House floor for a vote on June 26, Cao voted against it. Four days later, Boehner handed Cao $2,000. [FEC, accessed 8/3/09]

""The numbers could hardly be more stark: Tax receipts are on pace to drop 18 percent this year, the biggest single-year decline since the Great Depression, while the federal deficit balloons to a record $1.8 trillion."" Lib economics at work.

Libs are totally perplexed. Econ is not supposed to be so uncooperative to their big government ways. After all, look how well FDR did for the minor downturn of 1930 -- turned it into a major world depression with his meddling. Obimbo wants to repeat this blunder.