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Here’s the chart: And the analogy that matters. You are passing through “return to normal” on your way to “fear”, “capitulation” and “despair”: It’s not complex. BTC is simply in the process of being shut down: ATO warns Google bans ICO ads G20 to apply AML to crypto Mt Gox liquidation It will intensify and

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Labor has proposed a number of changes to franking credits paid on dividends. The proposal absolutely has some merit behind it, as a system set up so that people weren’t taxed twice has evolved into a system where some people get taxed zero times. But the current implementation has significant issues and creates a lot

There’s a transition underway in politics that was quite unexpected a few years ago. Labor leader Bill Shorten, backroom political hack and hollow man par excellence, has become the substantive policy leader in Canberra. This is obvious in both political and policy terms. The Labor Party is rolling out the largest and most comprehensive taxation

By Leith van Onselen On Monday’s Q&A ‘Big Australia’ special, Bob Carr made the claim that Australia’s mass immigration program is putting downward pressure on wages: BOB CARR Yeah, and to a large extent, it’s determined by raw market forces that we’ve opted to allow to determine the way we live, by the laws of

Iron ore prices for March 14, 2018: Tianjin benchmark jumped $1.80 to $71.75. Paper eased off overnight. Coking coal the same. Steel was much less excited. Port inventories fell 500kt to 158.6mt last week. Chinese data was good so we got the bounce. It won’t last. Here’s a few charts from Capital Economics: Note the

A red day here in Asia with all regional stock markets finishing down as risk traders weigh up what the hell is going on in Washington. With a new Secretary of State and possible new trade sanctions against Chyna, markets are getting a bit exhausted by the MAGA-in chief. US Treasuries held on to their

China’s Jan/Feb data dump is out and beat across the board with industrial production at 7.2%, fixed asset investment 7.9% and retail sales at 9.7%: The usual early year distortion caveats apply. Under the bonnet, however, the all-important realty sector is still slowing with sales down to a new low at 4.1% year on year:

At the Herald Sun today Jeff Kennett pulls the old populate or perish canard: Australia with about 24 million people, is extraordinarily underpopulated given our land mass. …Think of it: only 24 million people in one of the biggest underdeveloped and underpopulated land masses in the world. …History tells us we could easily have lost

By Leith van Onselen I wrote last month (here and here) how homelessness in Melbourne has risen dramatically at the same time as the city’s population has ballooned by nearly one million people (26%) over the past decade, driven primarily by the federal government’s mass immigration ‘Big Australia’ policy: This was confirmed by the release

Recently we noted from the Daily Telegraph reports that the Sydney Football (“Alliance”) Stadium rebuild will deliver zero net economic benefits for the state, according to analysis by hired gun KPMG: The Daily Telegraph has obtained the executive summary of the KPMG business case dated January 2018, currently being prepared for the Berejiklian government. The KMPG documents, labelled “sensitive —

By Leith van Onselen The REINZ has released its house price data for February, which revealed a 0.8% seasonally adjusted monthly rise in the national median house price, with prices also up 7.1% year-on-year: Outside Auckland, seasonally adjusted house prices rose by 2.0% in February, with prices up 8.5% year-on-year. Looking at the major cities,

From Ifeng: iFeng: 房贷利率连升14个月！贷100万30年利息多出22万 In February 2018, the national mortgage interest rate continued to rise, rising for 14 consecutive months. According to 360 financial monitoring data, the average interest rate for the first home loan in the country in February was 5.46%, which was equivalent to 1.114 times the benchmark interest rate, which was a month-on-month increase

Back in 2014 when Do-nothing Malcom was still pretending to care about policy he said: “Looking at Australia’s tax regime you would say that it is too tough on people earning income… but is incredibly concessional to older people who have made their money… All of these areas are very hard to deal with because

By Leith van Onselen Australia’s speculator frenzy has continued to moderate, according to today’s Lending Finance data for January, released by the ABS. As shown below, the annual value of investor loans in New South Wales (read Sydney) continues to fall, whereas Victoria (read Melbourne) has also moderated. By contrast, investor loans in the other major

Via the AFR: The bulk of professional stock pickers have once again been unable to beat the market, as shown by Standard & Poor’s scorecard for the industry, which reveals another disappointing year for the industry in 2017. Over the 12 months to December 31, the average large-cap Aussie equity fund managed to match the S&P/ASX 200’s return

From Birch Gold Group: It is generally well known in economic circles and in the general public that precious metals, including gold, tend to be the go-to investment during times of fiscal uncertainty. There is a good reason for this. Precious metals have foundation qualities that provide trade stability; these include inherent rarity (rather than

By Leith van Onselen Over recent months, there’s been a flood of stories about how Sydney residents are being forced to leave the city due to its high cost of living and degrading quality of life. According to analysis late last year by economist Callam Pickering, many of the workers leaving Sydney are high skilled,

Via Westpac: • The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 0.2% to 103.0 in March from 102.7 in February. Sentiment continues to hold in slightly optimistic territory with March marking the fourth consecutive monthly reading above the 100 level. That followed a year in which pessimism dominated. However, the Index is still well

Some good stuff today from Ross Gittins: So, who pushed housing prices so high? We did. Who failed to do what was needed to counter the increase? Our governments. The feds failed to limit the growth in demand (by limiting immigration and fixing the tax system), while the states did too little to increase supply

Via the AFR: The China Scholarship Council, which is overseen by the Chinese Ministry of Education, has raised concerns with the Chinese embassy in Canberra and universities about the long approval process for PhD students and scholars applying to work in Australia under the program. The China Scholarship Council (CSC), which funds students seeking placements

By Leith van Onselen Australia’s retailers have demanded a minimum wage freeze, which would result in real pay cuts for low-paid workers if endorsed by the Fair Work Commission (FWC). From The Australian: …the National Retail Association today urged the commission to give “full and genuine consideration” to awarding a zero minimum wage increase. NRA

By Chris Becker Last night’s February CPI print for the US was overshadowed by continued chaos in the White House with the Russians sacking the Secretary of State via Trump. Stocks fell alongside oil prices as Treasuries rallied and the USD fell against the majors. The so-called recovery from the January correction is not yet

By Leith van Onselen From Bloomberg comes news that London’s house prices are falling at their fastest pace since the Global Financial Crisis: London house prices are falling at the fastest pace since the depths of the recession almost a decade ago, with the capital’s most expensive areas seeing the biggest declines. Average prices fell

By Leith van Onselen In 2000, former Treasurer Peter Costello made the fateful decision to allow the conversion of franking credits into cash refunds for shareholders. This enabled tax-free (mostly wealthy) superannuation holders over the age of 60 to claim imputation credits even though they pay no tax. The Australia Institute explains: When companies pay

DXY fell sharply last night: AUD was weak against DMs: And EMs: Gold firmed: Oil fell: Base metals rose: But miners fell: As did EM stocks: And junk: Treasuries were bid: Bunds too: Stocks sold: It was all going swimmingly when US inflation undershot: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer

Via the ABC: The National Australia Bank has been criticised by the banking royal commission for not disclosing fraudulent behaviour by its bankers and third parties to the corporate regulator within the legal deadline. NAB executive Anthony Waldron was grilled today by senior counsel assisting the commission, Rowena Orr, QC, about the bank’s Introducer Program,

By Leith van Onselen Monday’s ABC Q&A Program featured Dr Jay Song, a supposed “migration policy expert” and recent migrant from Korea, who repeatedly spun the lie that Australia’s 130,000 strong skilled migration program is delivering fantastic outcomes for the nation. Below are some highlights of Dr Song’s testimony: When you look at the data,

If you’re a pollie and think you can manage the current surge in angst about mass immigration then think again. The ‘cut immigration’ movement now has very serious momentum. Moreover, it is not being driven by demagoguery or ideas or anything else intangible. It is being driven by something that cannot be stopped: the lived