SA Market Update – 04/05/2018

What a difference a week makes. Increases to the futures market, a decrease in currency along with continued uncertainty and caution with the commencement of a dry seeding window has seen a buoyancy in both the new crop and old crop markets.

Widespread rainfall in the later part of the week saw some good falls with other areas still waiting to receive the good rains needed. In the 24 hours on Thursday some areas of the West Coast received up to 23mm. The Yorke Peninsular had rainfall readings of around 16mm with the mid north receiving falls of 1-5mm. It seems the Lower South East had enough to dampen the dust but that was about it. It will be interesting to see how much of a swing away from canola we will see if the rain needed in the opportune seeding window doesn’t eventuate. Will we see a late canola plant with possible yield penalties or increased barley hectares? With the new crop canola values hovering around the $510/MT mark and almost non-existent old crop canola numbers, you can understand if there was a swing away.

My optimistic early week assessment of the new crop APW1 market was not optimistic enough, as vales for new crop APW1 reached $295/MT. Those sellers who are happy to take out 2019/20 APW1 multigrade contracts are able to realise a $305/MT. Those who have held 2017/18 barley have seen good upside to the mid-range values post-harvest. This week saw SFW1 wheat delivered Mid North $290/MT and F1 barley hitting $265/MT.