Democrat Jack Conway still leads Republican Matt Bevin by 5 percentage points in the latest Bluegrass Poll as the gubernatorial candidates gear up for the final run before the Nov. 3 election.

The poll found that Conway, Kentucky’s attorney general, leads Bevin 42 percent to 37 percent, in a race that has gone largely unchanged since the Bluegrass Poll was last released in late July. That poll also found the Democrat with a five-point lead over his GOP foe.

Independent Drew Curtis was at 7 percent in the most recent poll.

The survey of 701 likely voters was conducted Sept. 22-27 by SurveyUSA for the Bluegrass Poll, a consortium of media companies that includes The Courier-Journal, WHAS-11, the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV.

More than two-thirds of respondents were interviewed on their home phones, and about one-third were shown the questionnaire on their smart phones or other electronic devices.

For most questions in the poll, the margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, meaning that statistically speaking, the actual results wouldn’t deviate more than that amount 95 percent of the time.

Democratic consultant Danny Briscoe said the poll shows that Conway is in good position to win but that he needs to spend more time campaigning and less time raising money.

"I think it's Conway's to win," said Briscoe, who, along with his wife, has contributed $2,000 to Conway's campaign. "But he needs to get out and campaign — which he's not done in a year — and emulate previous Democratic candidates for governor ... and tell the people about the differences between him and Matt Bevin.

"He will not only increase turnout, but it will help his chances of winning," Briscoe said.

Republican political consultant Ted Jackson, however, said that he thinks the poll is “dead even” and that the numbers “don’t bode very well for Jack.”

He said recent elections have generally broken late for Republicans and he expects that sort of tide to help Bevin, who he said holds more “personal appeal” than Conway.

“I just think Kentucky is becoming more and more a Republican state … and it’s getting harder and harder for Democrats to vote for Democratic candidates because of national issues,” he said.

The Conway campaign was pleased with the poll's findings.

"We're not taking anything for granted, but it's clear that Jack Conway's message of creating good-paying jobs and growing Kentucky's economy, investing in early childhood education, and holding the line on taxes is resonating," spokesman Daniel Kemp said in a statement. "Jack Conway and (his running mate) Sannie Overly will continue working hard over the next month, meeting with voters in every corner of the Commonwealth and sharing their plan to move Kentucky forward."

Bevin’s campaign, which announced it was going up with a $1.1 million ad buy on Wednesday, said it is confident that Bevin leads the race and noted that despite having spent millions of dollars against Bevin, Conway hasn’t extended his lead.

"From spending to coal to Christian conservative values, Jack Conway is wrong on all the issues that Kentuckians care about. The voters of Kentucky side with businessman Matt Bevin. Kentuckians do not want to see more of the same in Frankfort,” campaign manager Ben Hartman said in a statement.

Curtis, through his spokeswoman, Heather Chapman, criticized the poll and its methodology, saying that his campaign looks forward to other public polls on the race. "We expect it would show an alternate outcome," she said.

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said Conway should be pleased with the poll's findings because he is surviving in an atmosphere in which Democrats in conservative states are suffering because of attitudes toward President Barack Obama.

In fact, the Bluegrass Poll found that voters overwhelmingly disapprove of the job Obama has done. Only 31 percent of Kentucky voters approve of the job he has done, while 61 percent say they don't approve. However, Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear still remains fairly strong. Half of Bluegrass Poll respondents said they approve the job he has done while just 32 percent say they disapprove.

"Well, it isn’t conclusive, but it's very good news for Conway," Sabato said. "He has maintained a lead despite Barack Obama's unpopularity. In Kentucky, that is a minor miracle."

Sabato said Bevin hasn't taken advantage of Conway's vulnerabilities because of repeated errors on the campaign trail.

The poll also shows a potential problem for Conway.

The poll found that 11 percent of voters who consider themselves very conservative and 16 percent of those who consider themselves conservative have yet to make up their minds, while just 11 percent of liberals and 7 percent of those who consider themselves very liberal are undecided.

Given that a higher percentage of voters consider themselves conservative or very conservative, that means Bevin has more potential for picking up votes down the stretch. The problem, however, said Steve Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, is that it shows that Bevin hasn't been able to close the deal with voters who should be the first to jump on board.

"It probably means the undecideds are going to break his way, but it also means that he has had a harder time selling himself to the party rank and file," Voss said of Bevin.

"I have a feeling this is more bad than good for Bevin," he said. Bevin's unfavorable numbers among Republicans is higher than Conway's unfavorable numbers among Democrats, and Bevin is getting a much smaller share of the GOP vote than McConnell did last year.

And, Voss said, Bevin may not be able to motivate Republican-leaning swing voters to go to the polls if he hasn't succeeded at this point.

"A lot of these undecided swing voters swing to the Republicans late in the election, but we're getting dangerously close to late in the election," he said.

Conway has slight advantages with both men and women and in all age groups. He also leads among those who have never been to college and those with four-year degrees.

After months of television ads critical of them, both Conway and Bevin are seen favorably by just slightly more registered voters than those who view them unfavorably.

Both Conway and Bevin were viewed unfavorably by 33 percent of respondents. Bevin was viewed favorably by 35 percent of respondents, while Conway was viewed favorably by 37 percent. That question had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Debbie Mattingly, 65, a poll respondent from Louisville who agreed to a followup interview, said she's not a big fan of either Conway or Bevin but that she'll probably end up voting for Conway.

A Republican who voted for Obama's second term, she said she is worried about Bevin's truthfulness after seeing scads of television commercials about him. But she said she is most bothered by his refusal to release his tax returns. "He says he'll do it after the election; well, why doesn't he do it now?" said Mattingly, who is retired from Blue Cross/Blue Shield.

She said she can't quite put her finger on what it is that she doesn't like about Conway but said that he "seems arrogant, a little self-sure of himself, cocky." She added that she doesn't hold anything about the way he has done his job as attorney general against him.

On honesty, Conway is slightly outpacing Bevin. When asked who they think is most honest, 30 percent of registered voters chose Conway, while 27 percent picked Bevin. Only 13 percent chose Curtis.

Conway and Kentucky Family Values, a Democratic super PAC, have run millions of dollars worth of ads trying to convince voters that Bevin lies about everything from his positions on issues to whether he has paid taxes on time. Some of the ads quote Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell’s campaign calling Bevin an “East Coast con man.”

Conway also gets slightly higher marks on who would best deal with federal environmental rules that limit carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants. Bevin has criticized Conway for having once said he backed federal “cap and trade” laws, but Conway has pushed back, noting that he has sued the Environmental Protection Agency in an effort to fight against overreach, of which he says the agency is guilty.

Conway’s biggest policy initiative so far has been his plan to extend public preschool education to more children, and the poll suggests that has some support.

When asked if the state should spend more or less on public preschool, 40 percent said the state should spend more, while just 13 percent said the state should spend less. Another 21 percent said the state is spending the right amount.

That issue has been key in the race, with Conway saying that Bevin opposes early-childhood education, which he denies.

Bevin has said that early benefits of the federal Head Start program wear off by the age of 9, and his running mate, Jenean Hampton, has said that the program is used to indoctrinate children. In a recent debate, Hampton declined to say what she meant by that.

Bevin may also see trouble on the taxes issue. Conway and the super PAC supporting him have both criticized Bevin for refusing to release his tax returns, as gubernatorial candidates have traditionally done in Kentucky to show whether they have potential conflicts of interest. Bevin has refused, saying that he would release his returns after the election.

But the poll found that 67 percent of registered voters said he should release his taxes before the election, while 15 percent say he should wait. Even 59 percent of Republicans say he should do it now.

Reporter Joseph Gerth can be reached at (502) 582-4702 or jgerth@courier-journal.com