Football: Weekly Picks

I hit two out of three in the division playoffs in last week’s column, scoring with the Eagles plus the Bears-Seahawks game going over the total to run my record to 15-8-1 with my free picks in the past six weeks — no complaints here.

Before we get to this week’s plays, one more reminder: The picks you’re about to receive are not always among the “premium” plays that I release to my paying customers on the weekends. Now, some of them are the same, but keep in mind that a lot can happen in those 48 hours to 96 hours before kickoff. Line moves, injuries, suspensions, weather… they all influence whether I upgrade, downgrade or totally discard the complimentary selections that you read here each week.

Without further delay, let’s get to this week’s freebies:

nfl

Saints-Bears OVER 43

On one side of the field you have a Bears team that fields a strong defense and an inconsistent offense. On the other side you have an explosive Saints offense, but one that’s now forced out of the comforts of their climate-controlled Superdome and onto a cold, blustery Soldier Field in the middle of January. Throw in the usual conservativeness of head coaches in championship games, and this one has 16-13 written all over it, right?

Wrong.

Let’s start with the fact that, going back to last year’s playoff game between the Bears and Panthers, nine of the last 10 games at Soldier Field have flown OVER the total. The lone exception was the regular-season finale three weeks ago when the Packers beat Chicago 26-7, a game in which most of the Bears’ starters played only one half. And even then, one more touchdown, and that game would’ve also flown OVER the total.

Now let’s examine that allegedly “strong” Bears defense. It was the best in the NFL through the first 12 games of the regular season and limited opponents to just 12.5 points per game (ppg). But look what has happened in the five subsequent contests: Opponents have torched Brian Urlacher and company for 26.4 ppg, which ranks 30th in the 32-team league. The collapse can mostly be attributed to the loss of two key starters: Defensive tackle Tommie Harris and safety Mike Brown, both of whom remain sidelined.

Find out how Brandon feels about Grossman and where this Bears-Saints matchup is going…