Thoughts on cycling and cycling performance

July 18, 2012

A Tour de France 2012 contender can lose a lot of time in the mountains. Just ask Cadel Evans, who cracked on the final climb of Stage 16, losing over 4 minutes on the Col de Peyresourde.

Stage 17 from Bagnères-de-Luchon to Peyragudes features five (5) categorized climbs including a finishing catergory 1 climb to the top of the Peyragudes in the Haute Pyrenees, another first for the Tour de France. Featuring the 3rd and final mountaintop finish of the 2012 Tour, Stage 17 represents the last opportunity for GC contenders to make their move.

Nibali, in the 3rd positon, will try again today to dislodge Froome from the second position. Froome showed a bit of weakness on Stage 16 and could crack. Wiggins could also have a bad day, but with a 2:23 lead over Nibali, it would have to be an "Evans" kind of day for Nibali to take over the lead. Those in the top 10 will try to move up a position or two, and those in the top 20 will try to make it into the top 10.

Wiggins showed some strength at the end of Stage 16, and he may want to stamp his authority on this Tour de France by taking a stage win on top of the Peyragudes. Look for it!

Tour de France Stage 17 Results

Alejandro Valverde has not had much of a Tour de France. That was until today when Valverede got in one of the early breaks today and held off a charging Yellow Jersey group to take the win atop the Peyragudes.

Meanwhile, Tommy Voekler secured enough of the points on the early slopes top all but cement the King of the Mountains competition.

Team Sky continued their "Death Star"tactics and rode everybody off their wheels by the end of the stage. 19 seconds after Valverde crossed the line, an all-too-familiar site of the dynamic duo of Froome-Wiggins crossed the line to take second and third place. Unlike the day before, when Nibilicame with them, this time he was dropped on the last climb, finishing 18 seconds behind the Sky Yellow Jersey group.

Tour de France Stage 16 - Pau to Bagnères-de-Luchon

Stage 16 from Pau to Bagnères-de-Luchon features four monster climbs. Coming on the heals of the second rest day of the 2012 Tour de France, the 197 km or 122 mile slog up and down the major cols of the Pyrenees will make for interesting racing. The day after the rest day always presents interesting challenges for riders, as the body could either feel great or feel very flat. Most riders make it a point to ride on the rest day, but they ride easy - just enough to open the legs and promote active recovery.

The Tour de France 2012 contenders have some interesting choices to make. Nibali sits in 3rd position 2:23 down from Wiggins, but only 18 seconds behind Froome. Is he content with a podium position? or is he going to go for it and try to dislodge Froome and potentially Wiggins with a massive attack? Liewise, what will Cadel Evans in 4th position and Jurgen Van Den Broeck in 5th position do? Evans clearly wants a podium position as the defending champion, but will he attack? More importantly, can he attack? His efforts from stage 11 to La Toussuire proved futile and cost him on the final climb of the day.

It is easy to envison a day where all of the Tour de France favorites stay together, while they let King of the Mountains aspirants go. Why? Because Stage 17 on Thursday is also a monster with the third and final mountaintop finish on Peyragudes. That stage clearly represents the last opportunity to general classification contenders to make a move. No one will want to wait until the time trial on Saturday.

Stage 16 Results:

A large group including Thomas Voeckler, Chris Anker Sorensen, Jens Voigt, Gorka Insausti and Brice Feillu, none of whom were threats to the general classificaton, got away early and stayed away. In the end, Voeckler proved to be the strongest rider, securing his second Tour de France 2012 win in the streets of Bagneres-de-Luchon after mastering four monster climbs. With another amazing cycling performance in the mountains, Voeckler secured the King of the Mountains jersey, and demonstrated that the tendonitis in his knee has dissipated.

The general classification riders did as expected - they rode together for most of the day. But on the Col d'Aspin, a mountain on which Cadel Evans should have been attacking, Evans showed that he does not have what it takes to win this year's Tour de France. As the pace of the contenders, increased, Evans simply could not follow. Having lost 40+ seconds on the climb, the Aussie was able to get back on with the lead group on the descent.

On the final climb of the day, the Col de Peyresourde, Nibali attacked! Froome and Wiggins followed, and the rest of the leaders were shelled out the back. At the top of the Peyresourde, this year's likely podium of Wiggins, Froome and Nibali crested together and finished together on the run into Bagneres-de-Luchon. The big loser of the day was Cadel Evans who lost over four minutes on the day and saw his podium chances evaporate.

July 15, 2012

Tour de France Stage 15 - Samatan / Pau

At 158 km or 98 miles, Tour de France Stage 15 from Samanta to Pau sidesteps the Pyrennes to take the riders to Pau for the 64th time. While lumpy, the stage is not particularly difficult, and it should be one for the sprinters, unless, of course, sprinters team let a breakaway go early. That is unlikely, as sprinters will only one one or two more chances to shine. With that, a bunch sprint into Pau is likely, and the Tour de France 2012 contenders will take an armchair ride into the second rest day of the Tour.

Tour de France Stage 15 Results

Apparently, the rest of the sprinters have ceded victory to Peter Sagan. The break that got away for the day stayed away. When it came down to only two men, Pierrick Fedrigo and Christian Vande Velde, Federigo had what most closely resembled sprinters legs whille Vande Velde did not. The Frenchmen took the victory, his second in the last three Tours de France.

No changes to the general classification. Boring. Now, we're headed to the rest day, before the real Pyrennes campaign gets under way on Wednesday.

Tour de France Stage 14 - Limoux to Foix

Stage 14 of the 2012 Tour de France from Limoux to Foix, a journey of 191 km or 118 miles that took riders over two (2) category one Pyrennes climbs, was almost predictable. A long breakaway group that incuded Luis Leon Sanchez, Philip Gilbert, Peter Sagan and others got away early, and the peloton let them go. But when Sanchez found himself with a small group that included Sagan with 10K to go, he waited until Sagan went for a snack before he laid down the heat. A top time trialist, Sanchez was able to stay clear and solo for victory, his fourth stage win in his last four Tour participations.

Meanwhile, back in the peloton, trouble was brewing. Apparently, someone was none-too-happy that the never before featured Mur de Péguère was being featured in the 2012 Tour de France. They took their revenge by throwing tacks on road at the top of the climb, ensnaring Cadel Evans and others. Evans lost of 90 seconds trying to get a wheel replacement, when his white jersey teammate Teejay van Garderen ignored his plea for help. Fortunately, the Yellow Jersey, himself "tacked" and flatted on the descent from the Mur, called a truce and urged his fellow Tour de France contenders to cease hostilities while Cadel got back on the group. Apparently, however, Pierre Rolland didn't get the memo, and he pressed on. At the point that his escape was encroaching upon Van Den Broeck's and Nibali's placing, however, Liquigas and Lotto pressed on, leaving Cadel and his boys to chase harder than expected.

Despite all the excitement and confusion, there were no changes of substance in the overall results.

Tour de France Stage 13 - Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux to Le Cap d'Agde

With the Alps now firmly in the rearview mirror, the peloton continue their southward push to the Mediterranean en route to the next big challenge in the Pyrennes. At 217 km or 134 miles, Stage 13 is on the long side, but it's relatively flat. Onstensibly, this is one for the sprinters. That said, if it's windy along the Mediterranean coast, it could cause some splits in the peloton, that is liklely quite fatigued from the campaign in the Alps. Woe to Tour de France 2012 favorites who fail to pay attention lest the wind or crashes get them!

Tour de France Stage 13 Results:

Cadel Evans, apparently, loves to attack on steep category 3 climbs, as was this case on short Mont Saint Clair climb on the outskirts of Le Cap d'Agde. The echelons of the wind-shattered peloton were further shattered by the effort, which saw sprinter Mark Cavendish go out the back. But if Evans effort was intended to distance the Yellow Jersey of Bradley Wiggins or other Tour de France 2012 contenders still in the hunt, that was not the case. In fact, so strong Wiggins that he lead sprint for teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen, who was beaten on the line by the battling duo of Andre Greipel and Peter Sagan. The finish was close but the photo showed Greipel on top with his 3rd stage win of the 2012 Tour. Sagan held onto the Green Jersey; Wiggins to the Yellow, and there was no change of significance in the general classiciation.

July 13, 2012

Stage 12 from Saint-Jean-de-Mauriene to Annonay Davézieux is another difficult day in the Alpsat 226km or 140 miles and three (3) categorized climbs. This is especially after Stage 11 to La Toussuire, which is sure to have left mark on the riders.

Witness Janez Brajkovic's power file for the day. Janez had a good day, finishing 8th on the stage and now sitting in 8th overall. But it was not without a significant cost. Not only did he expend nearly 4,800 calories, his training stress score (TSS) for the day was a remarkable 386 points. That's the physiological equivalent of 3.86 0ne-hour time trials! And surely, he was not the only rider to have expended that kind of effort. As a result, the top riders in Stage 11, most of whom are now contenders for the general classification, will want to take it as easy as possible on today's stage.

How you take it easy over 140 miles featuring (2) category 1 climbs to start with a category 3 at the finish is beyond this commentator!

Tour de France Stage 12 from Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne to Annonay Davézieux pretty much unfolded on script. A big break with no riders threatening to the general classification got away early, and the peloton, lead by Team Sky and Yellow Jersey Bradley Wiggins was happy to let them go. Eventually, the large group dwindled to a core group of five, one of which was the wiley veteran, David Millar from Garmin-Sharpe. When the five man group became two, Millar showed his experience, sprinting to the line in Annonay Davézieux for a well-deserved victory. The peloton made there way to the finish line, some seven minutes down on the leaders. There were no changes of consequence in the general classification heading into Stage 13 from Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux to Le Cap d'Agde.

July 12, 2012

Stage 11 of the 2012 Tour de France is relatively short at 148 km or nearly 92 miles, but it features four (4) categorized climbs and the second of only three (3) mountaintop finishes at the Tour de France. The top climbers of the Tour will certainly want to come to the front early (the first climb begins at 13km) to make their play for the King of the Mountains Jersey. It will be interesting to see if Tommy Voeckler can defend after yesterday's grueling day in the mountains and his amazing (and entertaining) win on Stage 10.

Stage 11 also represents one of the few opportunities the Tour de France 2012 favorites will have to move their way up the leader board. Vincenzo Nibali (4th on GC at 2:23) and Jurgen Van Den Broek (8th on GC at 04:48) both attacked yesterday on Stage 10, but their efforts bore little fruit. Van Den Broek did gain a small amount of time and moved from 9th to 8th on the general classification. Nibali's downhill breakaway was an effort in vanity, as he was caught on the last climb of the day, with barely an effort on his part to get away. Nibali will be particularly motivated, as he is only 17 seconds away from a podium spot and only 31 seconds away from second place.

Alliances are likely to form on this stage with the intention of isolating race leader Bradley Wiggins from his teammates, particularly Christopher Froome who holds onto a tenuous 3rd place. Watch out for Denis Menchov who has been lurking in the background, only 3:03 down on GC and in 5th position. He and another of the GC hopefuls may try to gang up the the British Yellow Jersey.

In and of themselves, none of the climbs are particularly difficult, althouth I have personally climbed the Coe de la Madeleine, and it is no cakewalk. If it's another hot day in France, riders will need to exercise caution on the backside of these climbs, which are steep and fast. Worse, the tar may have begin to melt, creating certain road hazards for descending cyclists, excercising little or no caution. Nibali, with his superior descending skills, may want use the descent of the Col du Mollard as a means of getting off the front for the final category 1 climb to La Toussuire. Big points are also on tap today for King of the Mountains aspirants.

Tour de France Stage 11 Results

Cadel Evans attacked early in the Col de Croix Fer and caught up with this faithful teammate Teejay van Garderen, the White Jersey owner, who was up the road with the early break. Evans tried, but he did not have it and quickly dropped back to the Yellow Jersey group. Ultimately, he paid for his early attack, as he had lost nearly all his mojo by the time the peloton hit the final climb up the La Toussuire. Evans was shelled, lost 01:23 to the Yellow Jersey group that included both Froome and Nibali, and with it fell into 4th place overall.

But Evans was not the only loser on the day. Menchov lost over 14 minutes and fell out of the top 10. Leipheimer, present in the early break of the day, broke and lost over 23 minutes. Valverde lost 8 minutes, and Movistar teammate Rui Costa lost 14. Ouch!

The big winner of the day was Pierre Rolland of EuropeCar. The winner of the stage to Alp d'Huez at the 2011 Tour de France show up big today as well. Going in the early break of the day, Rolland soloed to victory at La Toussuire, and picked up beaucoup de King of the Mountains points on the stage, not quite enough to take the Polka Dot Jersey, which was transferred Fredrik Kessiakoff from the Astana Pro Team.

As expected, both Nibali and Van Den Broeck also attacked on the final climb. And while they could not stay away, the managed to shell Evans in the process, with Nibali being the big winner of the day as he moved into a podium positon, just a few seconds done on Froome. Janez Brajkovic also climbed well and moved himself into 8th overall on GC.

The other amazing spectacle of the day was to see that both Froome and van Garderen were stronger than their captains. At points during the stage, both domestiques shelled their leaders "inadvertently," or so that is the question!

Stage 11 - Top 20 Finishers

1

Pierre Rolland (Fra) Team Europcar

4:43:54

2

Thibaut Pinot (Fra) FDJ-Big Mat

0:00:55

3

Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling

4

Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Lotto Belisol Team

0:00:57

5

Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale

6

Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling

7

Chris Anker Sörensen (Den) Team Saxo Bank-Tinkoff Bank

0:01:08

8

Janez Brajkovic (Slo) Astana Pro Team

0:01:58

9

Vasili Kiryienka (Blr) Movistar Team

0:02:13

10

Frank Schleck (Lux) RadioShack-Nissan

0:02:23

11

Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team

12

Tejay van Garderen (USA) BMC Racing Team

13

Christopher Horner (USA) RadioShack-Nissan

0:03:53

14

Andreas Klöden (Ger) RadioShack-Nissan

15

Jerome Coppel (Fra) Saur - Sojasun

16

Haimar Zubeldia Agirre (Spa) RadioShack-Nissan

17

Juan Jose Cobo Acebo (Spa) Movistar Team

18

Robert Kiserlovski (Cro) Astana Pro Team

19

Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale

0:06:17

20

Laurens Ten Dam (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team

0:07:27

General Classification after Stage 11 (Top 10 and Favorites - what's left of them!)

July 11, 2012

Tour de France Stage 10 - Macon to Bellegard-sur-Valserine

With Stage 10, the Tour de France peloton begins a three day campaign in the Alps. The first day after the rest day is always tricky, and riders never know how their body's will react. After 9 days of hard racing, followed by an easy recovery day, cumulative fatigue can manifest with a "bad day." You can bet that the Tour de France 2012 contenders hope that the King of the Mountains aspirants go on the attack early. If there are no threats in the break, Team Sky, now firmly in charge of the Yellow Jersey and controlling the race, will be able to ride a "comfortable" tempo. None of the main protaganists will protest a comfortable pace, as the following day to La Toussuire is nothing short of epic.

Stage 10 features three categorized climbs, incluing the first beyond category (HC - haute categorie) climb of the 2012 Tour de France. Given the climbs, the stage is relatively long at 194.5 km or 121 miles. Tour de France riders will climb the Col du Grand Columbier for the first time (unless of course, they rode it in the Criterium du Dauphine in June). At 17.4km the Grand Columbier averages 7.1% but include two sections where the pitch hits 12%. These may serve as launching pads for one of the top climbers in the 2012 Tour de France to make a mad dash for Bellegard-sur-Valserine some 45 km and a category 3 climb of the Col de Richemond away.

Tour de France Stage 10 Results

As expected, a large group including Thomas Vockler, Jens Voigt and Luis Leon Sanchez attacked the peloton early only to be shattered into smaller groups as the massive Col du Columbier took hold. Vockler, however, found his legs and went on to claim the King of the Mountain Jersey by taking 25 points on the Columbier and 5 points on the category 3 Col de Richemond. (Apparently, his knee is no longer bothering).

Dries Devenyns (Bel) Omega Pharma-QuickStep managed to break loose on the down hill run into Bellegard-sur Valersine. He looked set to take the victory when from out of nowhere comes a hard charing Jens Voigt (he's a beasty boy!). Voigt was closing the gap on Devenyns, when Vockler found his second set of legs, gave chase and dropped everyone on the final 1km climb to the finish!

Among the top contenders for the 2012 Tour, Jurgen Van Den Broeck attached the trailing field and managed to gain a few seconds over his rivals. He moved up into 8th position, while Tejay Van Guarderen dropped to 10th.

Stage 7 - Top 10 Finishers

1

Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Team Europcar

4:46:26

2

Michele Scarponi (Ita) Lampre - ISD

0:00:03

3

Jens Voigt (Ger) RadioShack-Nissan

0:00:07

4

Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Spa) Rabobank Cycling Team

0:00:23

5

Dries Devenyns (Bel) Omega Pharma-QuickStep

0:00:30

6

Sandy Casar (Fra) FDJ-Big Mat

0:02:44

7

Egoi Martinez De Esteban (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi

8

Pierre Rolland (Fra) Team Europcar

9

Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Lotto Belisol Team

10

Dmitriy Fofonov (Kaz) Astana Pro Team

0:02:52

General Classification after Stage 7 (Top 10 and Favorites - what's left of them!)

July 09, 2012

Stage 9 from Arc-et-Senans to Bescancon is the first real race of truth in the 2012 Tour de France. The 41.5 km or 25.7 mile individual time trial will invite the top time trialists at the Tour to come forward and show their mettle. The course is undulating and features several short climbs that will challenge the legs of the Tour contenders.

With Bradley Wiggins in the Yellow Jersey with only :10 on Cadel Evans, :16 on Vincenzo Nibali, and :54 on Denis Menchov, the battle between the Tour de France 2012 contenders is really taking shape. All of the GC contenders in the top 4 positons know how to race against the clock. The first time trial of the Tour will demonstrate whether or not the first week of racing has contenders in their rightful position or if a reshuffing is necessary. Likewise riders like Levi Leipheimer, Jurgen Van Den Broeck and Rein Taaremae will be seeking to make up for lost time. May the strong men come to the front!

In addition to the battle between the general classification contenders, top time trial specialists like Fabian Cancellera, Tony Martin (who has ridden the week with a broken wrist), Dave Zabriski, Michael Rogers, David Millar and Maxine Montfort will be battling for stage glory.

Stage 9 Time Trial Results

Bradley Wiggins of Team Sky put in another commanding cycling performance, winning the first long individual time trial of the Tour de France. Over the 41.5 hilly and technical course, Wiggins was the only rider to ride in excess of 30mph, finishing with a time of 51:24 (48.44 km per hour or 30.08 mph). His teammate, Chris Froome was a close second with a time of 51:59 and was the only other rider to go under 52 minutes from Arc-et-Senans to Besancon. Meanwhile, Cadel Evans, Wiggins primary general classification rival and last year's winner of the Tour de France, lost 1:43 to the Brit and now remains second overall. But instead of being only 10 seconds down to Wiggins, Evan is now almost two minutes behind with Froome a close third at 2:07.

The big question everyone should be asking is why or how did Bradley Wiggins go so much better on the time trial than Evans and the rest of the GC contenders?

As the last two days in the medium mountains illustrate, Wiggins and Evans climb at about the same rate. Since both riders are similar in weight (Evans at 67kg and Wiggins at 69kg), they push a similar amount of power. Wiggins 2kg actually suggests that he pushes about 3% more power than Wiggins on a climb. Assuming that Evans pushes about 440 watts at threshold (6.5 watts per kg), Wiggins probably pushes closer to 450 watts. Do those 10 extra watts actually translate into 3% more speed? Maybe. But bicycle aerodynamics aslo comes into play here. Just compare the positions of Wiggins and Evans. Wiggins back is flatter and his arms form less of an air scoop, which creates additional front area friction. Likely, Evans has optimized his position to favor power over aerodynamics, but the trade off is not working for him.

July 08, 2012

This year's Tour de France features a proloogue, a 41.5 km time trial from Arc-et-Senans to Besançon on Stage 9 and a 53.5km time trial from Bonneval to Chartes on the penultimate stage. The winner of the 2012 edition of the Tour de France will emerge from the ranks of the all-arounders – those who both climb well and time trial well.

Fabian Cancellera, Bradley Wiggins and Sylvain Chavenelle arrived on the podium after the Prologue on Day 1 of the Tour, but as Stage 8 to Les Planches des Belles Filles showed, only Wiggins is among the best climbers of the Tour, and therefore, in contention for the general classification. So, in analyzing the top time trialists, riders must either be considered in the category of contenders for the Tour de France general classification or pretenders – time trial specialists like Cancellera and Tony Martin who have no chance of winning the Tour.

Top Time Trialists among the Contenders

• Bradley Wiggins of Team Sky is clearly among the top time trialists in the world. Wiggins came in second in the Tour Prologue as well as second in the opening prologue of the Criterium du Dauphine in June. Later that same week on June 7, Wiggins won the 53 km time trial from Villié-Morgon to Bourg-en-Bresse.

• Cadel Evans of Team BMC demonstrated his ability to time trial well in the penultimate stage of the 2011 edition of the Tour de France where he finished second to Tony Martin on the 42.5 km Grenoble Time Trial and won the Tour de France. Evans finished 13th in the short opening Prologue of the Tour.

• Dennis Menchov of Team Katusha recently won the Russian National Time Trial Championship, and he came in 8th at the Tour prologue. He is better in the longer time trials and is the winner of both the Tour of Spain and the Tour of Italy.

• Levi Leipheimer of Omega-Pharma Lotto has won long Tour de France time trials in the past. While he has not showed the form that got him to the podium in 2007 (17th in the Tour de Suiss time trial and 80th in the opening prologue), Leipheimer consistently time trials well and demonstrates one of the most aerodynamic positions in the peloton.

• Vincenzo Nibali of Liquigas-Cannondale is an all-arounder who is consistently near the top 10 in Grand Tour time trials. He finished in a respectable 14th position in the opening Prologue.

• Robert Gesink has shown that he can time trial well, having recently placed in the top 5 on the Stage 7 time trial at the Tour de Suisse. But Gesink is so far down the general classification now, it is hard to consider him a contender.

• Jurgen Van Den Broeck finished 11th in the Stage 4 Time Trial at the Criterium du Dauphine. Given that lost time due to a mechanical prior to the climb of Les Planches des Belles Filles, he will be particularly well motivated.

Best Time Trial Specialists among the Tour de France Pretenders

Among the pretenders, look for great time trial performances from Tony Martin, the current World Time Trial Champion; Fabian Cancellera, former World Time Trial Champion; Dave Zabriskie, the reigning U.S. Time Trial Champion; Michael Rogers, fomer World Time Trial Champion; Fredrik Kessiakoff who beat Cancellera in the ITT at the Tour de Suisse; and Maxine Monfort, who finished 3rd behind Cancellera at the Suisse time trial. Also, time trialing and riding well are Christophe Froome, David Millar and Luis-Leon Sanchez.