Kurtenbach: Why the Warriors (and their fans) shouldn't be cavalier about the Rockets

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With the rest of the Western Conference battling for playoff seeds three through eight, the Warriors and Rockets are tied in a fierce battle for the top seed in the conference playoffs and the best record in the NBA, to boot. It’s a battle that appears poised to last until the final day of the regular season.

The two teams will not play again this regular season, but even without another showdown on the schedule, the truth is that these two teams will play each other every time they step on the court to play other teams.

This is turning into one hell of a rivalry — one that, at least for at least the next few months, will be played by proxy.

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But these two teams seemed destined to play in the Western Conference Final in May. The Rockets know it. The Warriors know it. And Draymond Green, true to form, is already starting the trash talk:

"Maybe we end up playing the Rockets," Draymond Green told Sports Illustrated. "I like our chances no matter who we play. We do know that they’re a threat, that they’ve added some great pieces, and, as has been highly publicized, that team is built to beat us.

Noted.

Great.

We’ll see y’all soon."

Now, Green is justified in that confidence, but he should also be careful what he wishes for — these Rockets appear to pose an equal, if not greater, threat to the Warriors than the 2016 Oklahoma City Thunder, who, you might recall, nearly beat the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals that year. (The Thunder had Kevin Durant and were up 3-1, if that jogs your memory.)

That’s more than formidable. So if the Warriors don’t fear Houston, if they don’t truly take that “threat” Green alluded to seriously right now, they should.

Not because the Warriors’ can’t beat the Rockets — I’m not that dense — but rather, because the Rockets, in my estimation, are the only team in the NBA that can beat the Warriors in a seven-game series, and every time I see Houston win, I envision the seemingly inevitable series between the two teams tightening.

And the Rockets can’t stop winning.

Houston entered Tuesday on a 15-game winning streak and victors in 31 of 32 games they’ve had James Harden, Chris Paul, and center Clint Cappella available to play.

You can’t credit a small sample size there — those are big numbers that should not, under any circumstances, be ignored.

These Rockets are the real deal.

And with the way Houston is playing, overlooking, being flippant, or laughing off the threat of James Harden, Chris Paul, and company is shaping up to be a recipe for regret.

Now, the Warriors must still be considered the NBA’s best team — they’ve earned that respect — but the fact that they’re fighting for the top seed in the West is a clear sign — to me, at least — that the gap between Golden State and the competition has tightened. And I think the top competition, the Rockets, might have encroached further than Warriors players, coaches, and particularly the fans might want to acknowledge.

Yes, Golden State has taken ‘er easy this season, turning it on for only big games, but it would be foolish to think that the Warriors’ top gear is markedly better than Houston’s.

I’ve seen Houston’s best often this season. It’s damn good. Title-worthy, if judged in a vacuum.

Now, we can draw on previous campaigns, but that’s a bad sample — ultimately, we’re yet to see Golden State’s absolute best in the 2017-18 season.

We’ve seen great quarters. We’ve even seen great games — though excellent, four-quarter efforts are still a rarity. But consistent, concerted, all-out effort over the course of a few consecutive games has eluded Golden State so far this season (though I don’t think it’s bad luck or an accident), and as such, I don’t think we have a good gauge on how the Warriors would stack up against Houston in a playoff series. You can’t just presume greatness.

And while my suspicion is that the Warriors are just as good as they’ve ever been — perhaps even a bit better — we’re in March and I can’t say that’s the case for sure.

Hence my hesitation with the Green’s confidence that the Warriors can take down the Rockets. Hence my reservation towards anyone presuming that the Warriors are unbeatable if they just play hard.

For months, I’ve looked for cracks in the Rockets’ resume — there are a few, no doubt, but the Warriors seemingly have just as many this year.

There’s one question, in particular, I have a problem answering about a Warriors-Rockets series: how will the Warriors guard both Paul and Harden when they’re on the floor together?

Both players have, in the past, when on different teams, been guarded by the Warriors’ top defensive guard, Klay Thompson. Presumably, in this case, he would guard Harden.

That leaves Stephen Curry against CP3. While Curry’s defense is underrated and Paul has a track record of less-than-heroic playoff performances, I don’t think it’d like that matchup over seven games if I was Golden State.

Flip it, or put Andre Iguodala against Harden and Thompson against Paul, and I still don’t necessarily like the matchup. I can see the fouls piling up already, as two of the grandmasters of the dark arts pull out every trick in the book.

And considering that I’m not a fan of the matchups with the starters and two elite defenders, you can imagine my thoughts on Nick Young or the wayward Patrick McCaw checking Paul or Harden.

What happens then?

This is what Green was talking about when he said "team is built to beat us".

Yes, the Warriors have superior firepower everywhere else — Green and Kevin Durant, Iguodala and David West, Shaun Livingston and Young — but in Harden and Paul, the Rockets have directly attacked the Warriors’ greatest strength, their backcourt, and perhaps, just perhaps, have surpassed it.

It seems unlikely that the Warriors and Rockets won’t play in May — they have to play in May, right? And until the two teams step onto the court, none of us really have any idea what will happen.

That’s strange. Usually, we can garner some sort of an idea by this juncture of the season. Typically, we have two well-established track records from which to draw, and we can at least make a “well-informed” prediction.

But we have no idea of how these new-look Rockets will perform in the playoffs, and we still can’t say with certainty that the Warriors are an equal or better team to last year’s title-winning outfit.

And I don’t think we’ll get those answers until the Western Conference Finals roll around, either.

So while these final few weeks of the regular season — this rivalry by proxy — will be fun, and there’s no doubt that the early rounds of playoffs will pose challenges to both teams, my curiosity and impatience is getting the better of me.