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Wednesday, February 12

Cold & sunny today, but later Thursday into Thursday night a big, intensifying nor'easter will be sliding up the coast. The BIG question with this storm is where exactly is it going to track? Each of the last several forecast runs have been taking it a little further west siding with the EURO. With that said, we will certainly cloud up on Thursday, & POSSIBLY see a little snow from the storm Thursday night. At this time any accumulations would be very light at best, but more significant accumulations will be a distinct possibility in portions of CNY, which is not too far away. If this westerly trend continues over the next 24 hours we may need the shovels come Friday morning here too. At this point, though, very little will fall for us the way it looks as of early Wednesday afternoon. Eastern Finger Lakes & east of Lake Ontario could pick up at least a few inches. Stay tuned for the latest updates from Scott tonight & me tomorrow morning. Either way, it's gone come Friday morning with a little more snow possible from a clipper later in the day. Some lake snow will then likely fly late Friday night into the weekend, as it turns much colder & blustery.

Have a great afternoon bloggers!

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News 8 Weather

115 comments:

Binghamton was just elevated from zero headlines whatsoever to a Winter Storm Warning. Amazing how chaotic this situation is less than 24 hours out. Winter Weather Advisories are as nearby as southern Cayuga County.

We're less than 24 hours away, there won't be any shifts that large. There's a remote chance of having a shovel-able snowfall, but even if ol' Megatron comes down with the catch a lot will have to occur otherwise to get anything of substance.

How can you say this not a big deal for the South. To experience a snow and ice storm in the same time frame, and knowing they are not as prepared with plows, salt, etc. as we are in the North. So to see the many accidents (injuries), abandoned cars, and some deaths could occur. Don't make such a comment.

It is a HUGE deal in the south when snow or ice come into the picture. They do not have the massive amounts of equipment to handle it. Only a handful of plow trucks. I lived in Nashville for 11 years so I know how it is down there. Up here, it is just another day when we get a snow storm because we have salt and we have the proper equipment to maintain the highways. Go on down there CCCC during a storm and you can see it first hand.Chris

Snowdog do not say you are ok with missing this storm. This was the BIG one and we missed our chance. Will not be another one of this magnitude this winter. Some places getting 20 inches with snowfall rates two to three inches per hour. I know you are not ok with the miss.

Another big one not happening CCCC sorry. That warm-up is towards the end of next week and a few days into the following week. That brings us close to the end of February. The likelihood of getting all the elements needed for another blockbuster storm are slim and none. Slim just left town. We have a small side wager CCCC if I am right you are barred from the forum for the 2014/15 winter if you are right then I am. A deal?

The odds of a big storm hitting us are rather slim at any time of the year, so the wager is clearly slanted in your favor. No deal. All I said was that the "chance" is still there.

I did a little count of how many daily snowfall records of 10 inches or more Rochester currently has, including last Wednesday. I came up with a total of 16 for March, which is more than any other month. February has 14, including a couple in the past 5 days. Besides, some of Rochester's greatest snowstorms have occurred in March. I'll list a few:

- The great storm of 1900 (40 inches)- The Storm of the Century (23.2 inches)- The double blizzard of 1999 (24 inches and 18 inches)

There was also one in March 1992 that put down almost 2 feet. And there was another that occurred at the tail end of February 1984 that lasted 5 days and dropped over 30 inches, most of which was during the first few days but still close enough to March to include here. Point being that you must not be at all familiar with climatology in upstate NY if you truly believe big storms are a tremendous rarity by the end of February.

It really depends on the storm's nature, but typically you'd want it to track up along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. That doesn't happen too frequently, so many times we have to rely upon coastal systems having large precipitation shields and cold enough air for lake enhancement. The 1993 Storm of the Century tracked just offshore, but because it was so gigantic it tossed heavy snow as far west as Ohio. The V-Day Storm of 2007 tracked a little further offshore, but it also had a very large precipitation shield and very cold air to create lake enhancement. That system was also a Miller B type noreaster, which involve inland tracking lows that transfer to the coast and tend to produce more widespread snowfall. Another example: the storm of March 1960, which dropped 10-20 inches in the Lake Ontario counties, was a Miller B that eventually ended up near the 40N/70W benchmark, normally much too far east for us to get anything.

FYI nothing showing on the long range models but signs of spring. Bring on the warm temps and get winter over already. In fact we may not break 100 inches officially this winter after that great start.

We are just not in a good spot to get the BIG storms. We all must realize that. We are usually spectators to the BIG ones. I do not think we will hit 100" either. We are only at 72 which is pretty pathetic seeing how cold it has been. We will probably be in last place for the snowglobe thingy after albany gets over a ft today. All the snow we have now will be gone by next weekend with temps above average all next week. Hopefully winter rallies and we get above 100".

I don't thenk that the 3-4 feet of snow that I have piled on all sides of my driveway will be gone by next week, let along the 1 foot of snow on either side of my walk way. Plus if the snow were to melt that fast, what about flooding and flooded basements.

Snowdog, unless the number of inches in a foot has doubled since last night I really doubt Albany will pass us in the Golden Snowball from this one storm.

I think there's something you need to understand about particularly cold winters such as this one: they are rarely all that snowy relative to average. The immense degree of cold has done a fair job of suppressing the mean storm track for a good chunk of the season, which has left us high and dry for rather lengthy stretches. Furthermore, the lack of downstream blocking has not allowed for prolonged periods of heavy lake effect, so we've been lacking big time in that department. All things considered, it's actually pretty amazing that we're anywhere close to average at all. You'd think that with the persistently positive NAO, uncooperative AO and primarily negative PNA that we'd be running well below average right now.

Well CCCC again you do explain well but many things are after the fact. I believe you were the one that said last week the pattern was going to change to a more favorable snowy one? Something about the jet formations coming together? Idk in fact no one knows what will happen. I just get sick of all the predictions of pattern changes that will lead to storms rather that be AO, NAO or PNA.

I did say last week that things looked favorable for cold and snow to return...by late in the month. It's fair to say that no one "knows" what's going to happen, no one is clairvoyant after all. It's all about gathering evidence and interpreting it to come up with the most favorable scenario.

I also said, while posting anonymously, that a major storm pattern was brewing for early February in the East, not necessarily for Rochester. By the end of today the eastern U.S. will have gotten no fewer than 5 substantial snowstorms in a 16 day span, one of which hit Rochester hard. I'm not saying this to brag, I'm saying it to demonstrate a point: just because someone says the pattern looks stormy for someone does not necessarily mean that we will be included. That distinction never becomes truly evident until a week away at the earliest.

The colder and snowier scenario for late month is still favored as of now, and we MIGHT get a good storm or two out of it.

CCCC thanks for all your insightful blogging, I enjoy reading your thoughts & weather information. CCCC has been pretty accurate with many of the weather events that have happened in the last few weeks. Remember folks, even with the best technology sometimes Mother Nature surprises us!

The Winter Weather Advisory now includes Wayne, Ontario, Yates and Steuben Counties. Winter Storm Warnings are as nearby as Oswego County. Clearly the western periphery of this storm is overperforming.

I pray we are on the low side of snow accumulations. Us commercial plowing contractors are running on empty for salt and we can not buy anymore this season. I even tried a broker in Colorado. NYC and NJ purchased all salt reserves even what we have already paid for but have not taken delivery.

CCCC you where also right on the money with this storm. It has tracked just like you said. I have also enjoyed sitting back reading you posts. You have been more accurate than ANY local forecaster the past couple of weeks.

Lol thanks, but all I really did with this storm was see that the models were having all sorts of trouble, which kept us in the mix for the graze job that we are now getting. Once the Euro began leading the way on its westward track it became more likely that this one would end up further west than many were saying it would, especially considering how these powerful storms like to track along the western portion of guidance envelopes. I'm going to take the humble route and say I made a "lucky educated guess" this time ;)

CCCC, question, Why does the radar ( around 7:30 pm ) look like we are going to get some pretty moderate snow for a while? Canandaigua has about 2 plus inch's on the ground and its snowing pretty good. We are trying to time our salting/plowing operations and getting confused with the timing. Thoughts?

Those moderate bands are rotating inland from the storm as its center moves up along the coast, so they're just kind of hanging around. The snow should continue at a light to moderate clip for a good chunk of the night by the look of things, although it looks like the radar is starting to temporarily calm down a bit down that way.

I can answer for CCCC if he doesn't mind. That is banding - waves of more intense moisture that can affect certain areas more than others. That band of intense snow that you are reporting runs north-south along Rt. 21 from Pultneyville to Bristol. You will end up with an inch or two more than anyone else in the area.

Monday could bring a plowable snowfall to the region, but right now it doesn't look like too big a deal. It could serve to beef the snowpack up for about a day ahead of the thaw assuming we don't have mixing issues. Speaking of the thaw...there is the potential for one or two strong Great Lakes systems at some point during that stretch, which could introduce strong winds along with robust surges of milder air. There is also a heavy rainfall threat associated with any storm potentials, which exacerbates the flood risk associated with rapid snowmelt and pre-saturated ground. If there is any saving grace right now it's that the warmup looks less pronounced today than it did yesterday. Slower melting is good for everyone, even those rooting for warmer temps. Still, this warmup does not appear to be without its caveats as of now.

Seeing how the mild surges preceding strong Great Lakes systems tend to be dry, there might not be much of a snowpack remaining to absorb any rainfall. However, if there is also a lot of wind during the dry time any evaporation would be accelerated, which would mitigate the flood risk to an extent.

Yes, but uncertainty exists regarding exact placement of potential systems. Paul Pastelok thinks the interior Northeast will be the target zone for snow systems, with more mix events closer to the coast. Bear in mind that the interior Northeast isn't exactly a small region, so parts of it may miss out (not necessarily us).

That's kind of a bit much to tackle right now, but given how iced up Lake Erie is I would favor a slow start to Spring, with cooler temps hanging on longer than usual especially west and south. The eventual pattern could dictate otherwise, but we're too far from that time range to tell for sure. Seasonal forecasting is a crapshoot at best, too many kinks and variables.

The more I look, the less impressed I am with the upcoming thaw. The past few days have really chipped away at how pronounced it eventually gets. If this trend continues we may be dealing with more of a "cool-up" than a "warm-up."

No lake effect if any he favorite areas not Rochester. We are dead last in the Golden Snow Globe a ward how sad. Even lowly Albany is in front of us. I know everyone says we get snow not really only the select small few in lake effect areas get a lot.

I am here. Not much to talk about. I hope CCC is right about the thaw not being so pronounced. All the mets have us in the 40's to near 50 by weeks end. I love this snowpack but we are only at 75 inches of snow. Buffalo and Syracuse are at 95 each. We are about 22 inches behind them. It is pathetic seeing how cold it has been. It is hard to fathom that we could end up below normal in snow this year. Meanwhile New England is getting another blizzard and another miss for us. Yike!!!!

Many of the weather folks have commented on the "Thruway Snow Derby" and stated that the measurable snow for Rochester has been incorrect and is higher than the numbers reflect. I know along the lake shore, we have over 100" of snow thus far. One area which has been mentioned specifically is Webster with 100+ inches of snow thus far. So to say that we are below normal in snow this year, is not a correct statement for everyone.

Some of you can laugh or not, but I'm sticking with my late December prediction that we'll finish the season with 110"-120" based on historical averages and patterns. Sure 120" is a stretch, but I still like the odds for 110".

We are currently at 77" for the season and nearly 9" above Feb average MTD. I see no reason why we should not finish Feb with at least 80"- 85" even with the brief warmup late next week-- heck we could even get a good storm and go well above that! Then looking at March, for all March's since 1941 we average around 15". But in years where we've exited Feb with 80"-85" we've averaged closer to 19." March is also a prime month for BIG storms. The downside is that years similar to this one also brought more than normal snow in April, and I think most of us find April snow tough to handle and basically a waste. And any snow in May I'll become homicidal :)

So I'm gonna say today, that hitting our 93" average is a guarantee. Exceeding 100" is highly probable. I'm sticking with 110" unless we tank the balance of February.

Where is CCCC? Update on Monday night into Tuesday based on latest model runs? Plus, I am saying keep an eye on the week of the24th for a BIG storm somewhere. Probably not here but somewhere on the east coast?

We all know that March could be a bear or we could see nothing. Thanks Andy. I am going to say we finish below 100" this year. Where do U get that 93" inches is the average? I thought 100" is the average. This weak system for Monday night will give us maybe 1-3 inches. NBD

No support for 50s in any of the ensemble means. It looks like mid to possibly upper 40s will be as good as it gets for most of us. Normally this would not be enough to create flooding issues, but the passage of a Pacific cold front on Thursday could throw a wrench into that equation. Later next weekend there is strong agreement on a return to well below normal temperatures after the passage of an arctic front. There is the potential for some sort of Eastern system early the following week, but details on it are hazy at best.

We average around 100 inches of snow per season. If you want to split hairs then the exact 30 year mean is 99.5 inches. We are currently at 77.5 inches, 22 inches below the average for an entire season. There's a good chance we meet or beat 80 inches by the tail end of tomorrow night's system, which looks like a 2-4 inch event right now. That would put us around 20 inches away from the century mark, and given how much time remains for snow opportunities after the warmup I'd say that isn't a tall order.

Wouldn't surprise me if we were over 90" before February is over. Once this brief warm up begins to break down, the jet stream will be in a favorable position for us to see some decent snow. Remember, there is a deep snow pack from our region north and west. Couple that with the near record ice extent for the Great Lakes and it's going to take some time for winter to retreat north.

I don’t use the 30 year average, I use the data from 1940/1941 to present available at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/climate/roc_snow00s.php. I just dumped it to an Excel sheet for analysis, and that average is 93” and median of 89”.

The data does not support a high probability of finishing the winter at less than 100.” If you look at all winters where we finished Feb between 80”-85” for the season, there were 5 since 40/41. Only the winter of 80/81 finished below 100” at 94”, but we also only had 9” in Feb so this year does not look like that year at all. However the other 4 winters were above 100”-- we finished at 121” for 55/56, 106” for 89/90, 107” for 06/07, and 106” for 07/08. We average 15” in March, and seasons resembling this season typically have resulted in hefty March snowfalls, so I’m saying 100” can be taken to the bank, and I’ll stick with 110” as the likely season total.

But please Mother Nature, with all due respect PLEASE, no accumulating snow in April or May :)

I am with Andy on this one over 100 inches. Hamlin is already well OVER 100 inches this season. It snowed all day today and we got another 4 inches of powder on the north side. So much for a early spring, next weeks warm up is getting cooler and shorter everyday. The ECMWF 12Z run has brought winter back next weekend with a possible snow storm for our area. Time will tell but it still looks very promising for winter fans. This winter has been a municipal snow plowers dream. I got another 33 hrs OT since last Sunday, keep it coming I can catch up on sleep in the spring.

Been snowing steady since 2 PM today - easily another 3-4" of fluffy stuff here north of 104. I found season to date snow data for Walworth (CoCoRahs) and a spotter has 103". A buddy of mine lives in Walworth and he has had less snow than me so I'd estimate 120-130" here in Ontario/Williamson this year. It's funny that the radar never seems to pick up the snow here (right now for instance it's snowing steady)...

I'm sure some of you who have been on here for a while will remember Charles Wachal. He used to post on here quite a bit. Recently he put up a post that said that his wife was very sick and was having surgery. I was following the Facebook page that someone made for them and sadly she passed away. It's very sad, she was young and they have a small baby girl. Just thought those of you who remember him would want to know. :(

Boy if they don't communicate to residents that we can expect 3 to 6 inches by morning - they will have blown it again for many of us who need to prepare for the morning commute. Now wonder if they are wrong about the warm up expected as the week goes on.

This is not a case of "miss to the south" as much as it is a case of downsloping causing the atmosphere to dry out. This will substantially cut back on totals across the region, and wasn't evident in previous model runs which tracked the system further south. The Canadian model is apparently not picking up on the downsloping effect, unlike all of the other models. Anyone expecting 3-6 inches is going to be sorely disappointed.