Fantasy Football 2010: Values Regardless of Position

Everyone knows that with the first pick in this season's fantasy football draft you want Chris Johnson. That should be no surprise. You would have known even if every analyst in the nation hadn't told you already.

Why should he be the first pick though?

ESPN does not have him scoring the most points, not by a long shot. He is surpassed by more than a few quarterbacks. The truth is that he is better at his position than any other player is at theirs. The trick is quantifying this and comparing it by that same measure to every other player in the league. That requires a formula, and a formula is what I have.

Listed is each player's fantasy order based on point differential against the average fantasy starter at their position, taking into account last season's numbers and this season's projections. (I say average fantasy starter because the volume of bench players at different positions has the potential to skew the data.) The result is a remarkably accurate order for your fantasy draft.

Let me break it down and explain in simpler terms.

Within the Position

Andre Johnson is 92.5 points better than the average WR, while Randy Moss is only 81 points better than the average WR, therefore Andre Johnson is higher on the list than Randy Moss.

Interpositional

Tom Brady is only 74 points better than the average QB, and therefore ranks lower than Randy Moss at 81, even though Brady will more than likely score more points than Randy Moss over the course of the fantasy season. You would draft Moss over Brady because Moss is more valuable at his position than Brady is at his, regardless of how many points they score overall.

Now, we have one system of measurement for every player in the league and can compare them on an even field.

The best part is that nobody else that I know or read is using this system. If everyone plays with the same information, drafting well comes down to luck and draft position. So while everyone else in your league is using the pre-loaded ESPN fantasy rankings or playing whatever tip Matthew Berry gives them and are all trying to outsmart each other with the same information, you have both a fresh perspective and an edge.

This is also an excellent way to put a definitive value on preseason trades, (i.e., If someone offers you a trade of anyone higher on this list for anyone lower on this list, you should pull the trigger unless it would overload you or cripple you at any position.)

Here, without further explanation, is the preseason value ranking for 2010: