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Oscar Predictions 2018: Who Will Win?

Oscar Predictions 2018: Who Will Win?

by Ross

In a flurry of winter activity, I’ve been trying to see at least a majority of these films, and with the help of Streaming devices, I’m getting there. Of the Best Picture nominees, I have one left to see. And hopefully by Sunday I will cut that list down to zero. Fingers crossed. The NYFF has always been a great help getting the ball rolling, but this year the majority were seen elsewhere. So, to the best of my abilities, I’ve made my choices, who I think will win, and who I loved, who I’ve loved the most and would have voted for if I could.

Let me know where we differ in opinion and who you loved and wish would win.

❤️ the one I love (can be more than one)

❤️❤️ the one I loved about the others

👉 the one I think will win

❌ the one I hope doesn’t win

✅ the one that did win (stay tuned)

Let the games begin!

Here is the list of 2018 Oscar nominations:

Best Picture:

My heart belongs to “Call Me…“, but I also loved all of the films that I saw. I don’t think any of these films are even close to perfection, nor do any of them stand out as the front runner in my critical eye. A few are brilliant and personal, creative and inventive, like “Phantom Thread“, “Darkest Hour“, and “Lady Bird“, but I felt there were some fundamental flaws in each. “I, Tonya” maybe be the best overall film of the year in my eyes, solid and perfectly formed, but it’s sadly missing from the list. So, I’d put my money on “Three Billboards…” slightly over “The Shape of Water” just by a hair, although I might be proved wrong. The surprise winner might be the sneakily powerful “Get Out“, but I think that’s wishful thinking.

Once again, “Call Me…” especially because of Chalamet (who was also brilliant in “Lady Bird“, and surprisingly different in “Hostiles“) has taken my heart completely in his vulnerable and emotionally rich journey from curiosity to being enveloped whole-heartedly in his first love. It connected to me in a way the others just didn’t come close, but I’m guessing that’s a personal thing, rather than the universality of its story. Just saw “Darkest Hour” and I’d say the odds are on him to win, and he’s pretty darn good, as is Daniel Day-Lewis in “Phantom Thread“, but my money is on Oldman. I’m not a fan of Washington, he “makes too many faces“, as Sally Bowles might say and I never fully believe in his character being a separate entity, but I think I’m in the minority there.

Every single one of these ladies enriched the film they were in, heightening our emotional investment in their journey in the most beautiful and subtle way. I loved Robbie in “I, Tonya” as much as I loved this film, but I’d be surprised if her portrayal of bad girl Harding will win her this award. So my money is on McDormand, who anchors this slightly messy tale in an emotionally painful landscape that shifts and bends in the most human way possible. That look on her face when Woody has that bloody cough and it flips a switch inside her, is in its self, worthy of an award. So let’s all sit back and wait for what ever kind of speech is a-coming, cause ya know she’ll deliver.

I never saw “All the Money…” but I’m guessing this nomination is more a nod to Plummer’s professionalism and his stature in the industry, so it’s really a battle between the other four, all who are worthy. I’d love it to go to Dafoe, who centered “The Florida Project” with a caring regal core, but my money is on Rockwell, a magnificent actor (see “The Way Way Back“) playing a complex part that sits awkwardly in our minds, in a way that I wasn’t quite sure what to believe in at the end of “Three Billboards…” but I loved his portrayal of this complicated soul, although I’m not sure what I think of the writing of it.

It’s the battle between the mothers with a few BFF’s along side. I know technically Manville is a sister, but the bond felt more like companions and guardians then a familial one.

But the contest is for “Best Mom”, and I keep going back and forth. Blige was awesome in “Mudbound” but I think it’s really a two person race between Metcalf and Janney. I’m guessing Janney will gather up the prize for “I, Tonya“, but if you ask me tomorrow I might have changed my mind.

Wouldn’t it be great if first time director, Gerwig could win over these other seasoned pros, but I’m guessing del Toro will for “The Shape of Water“. And he deserves it. His film is a perfect example of a director’s vision being executed precisely and perfectly.