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The whole Taiwan thing is deeply unnerving to me, because it really shows how Trump can blunder his way into World War III. He has shown a (possibly unintentional) willingness to defy diplomatic positions, while also signalling that he is much less willing to abide by military alliances. Nightmare scenario would be the following: Taiwan decides that Trump and the U.S. would actually support a formal declaration of independence, so it goes ahead and declares independence. China gets a casus belli and concludes that Trump will not actually defend Taiwan if China attacks (or blockades) Taiwan, so it goes ahead and does so. Then Taiwan is screwed, and if Trump does decide to respond militarily, we end up in World War III.

Then again, I can also see China telling Trump that he can build a few more hotels in China if the U.S. breaks off even unofficial relations with Taiwan, and Trump actually agreeing to it. So who knows.

I admit I really do not understand why the stock market is holding up so well under the prospect of a Trump presidency. I guess people think he’s all talk, but most diplomacy is nothing but talk in the first place. I can imagine him tweeting one day, “Of course Taiwan is independent” or “Of course Kashmir belongs to India / Pakistan / [whoever last told Trump that he has the best hair, simply the best].”