Judging by last weekend’s annual Manning Centre Conference in Ottawa, the Conservative party is in the midst of a mood swing.

In other years, many conference participants were cabinet ministers and MPs who were captives of the Harper’s government’s all-consuming agenda of message control — delivering prepared texts and sticking to talking points in every media gathering. Their performances were invariably robotic.

Losing an election appears to have been a liberating experience for a lot of them. Attendance may have been lighter than in previous years, but the mood among parliamentary Conservatives was surprisingly upbeat. Suddenly, the conservative movement appeared to be looking ahead rather than in the rear-view mirror.

Preston Manning himself has succeeded as a convener and thought leader in ways he never did as leader of the Reform party, when his principal achievement was to divide the right and keep it from power.

In his conference keynote, Manning focused on two points. The first was generational change and the need to get millennials involved in politics and public policy. The second was the environment and the need for the Right to engage positively on climate change.

One of the most constructive plenaries of the weekend was a session on green conservatism — not actually a contradiction in terms. Climate change and the need to cut carbon emissions are leading to clean energy innovation. Energy companies such Enbridge are diversifying out of oil and gas. Roxanna Benoit, Enbridge VP for public affairs, noted her company has the country’s second-largest private sector portfolio in renewables, valued at $5.5 billion. So, more than a pipeline company.

She pointed out that 64 per cent of the growth in energy production between now and 2040 will be in “low carbons” — gas, bio-energy, hydro and renewables, such as solar and wind. Oil and coal, which have dominated the energy sector, will have a much-diminished share of future growth.

A presentation on attitudinal data from Mission Research clearly showed the Liberal brand is about twice as strong as the Conservatives, across the board — particularly on the economy, the Conservatives’ signature issue.

In terms of politics and generational change, it’s a digital world now. Katie Harbath, global head of political engagement for Facebook, shared some striking data. When the company was founded in 2004, the re-united Conservatives’ first election year, most of its traffic was on desktop and laptop computers. Today, with 21 million Canadians on Facebook (two-thirds of the population), fully 85 per cent of its traffic is on smartphones. (Facebook has 1.6 billion subscribers worldwide.)

Kevin Chan, head of public policy for Facebook in Canada, noted last fall that traffic on Justin Trudeau’s Facebook page surged on the days of the five leaders’ debates.

In the U.S., as Republican digital consultant Vincent Harris noted at Manning, the presidential campaign cycle is being driven by social media. Donald Trump puts up a Twitter insult in 140 characters, and it immediately jumps to mainstream media such as CNN, Fox and the New York Times. Trump’s earned media is, of course, all free media — part of the news cycle. Meanwhile, establishment candidate Jeb Bush spent $100 million in only four primaries, and never broke out of single digits in the popular vote before dropping out after South Carolina last week.

Where do the Conservatives stand with Canadians after being turned out of office last October? A presentation on attitudinal data from Mission Research clearly showed the Liberal brand is about twice as strong as the Conservatives, across the board — particularly on the economy, the Conservatives’ signature issue.

But four Conservative MPs and would-be leadership candidates who presented at Manning were all earnest and upbeat about the party’s prospects going forward. A fifth — businessman and celebrity reality show host Kevin O’Leary — offered some Trump-style flamboyance with rather less vulgarity.

It was interesting that MPs Michael Chong and Lisa Raitt began with their personal narratives — one as the son of immigrants and the other as the daughter of a Cape Breton mining town, each quite compelling and both completely authentic. Both could become first-tier contenders, though Raitt needs some time in French immersion.

Speaking of official languages, Max Bernier got off a good shot at the unilingual O’Leary’s assertion that he doesn’t need to speak French to be prime minister. Bernier called him “a tourist”. Exactly.

Several other would-be candidates were not on the stage. Michelle Rempel is known to be giving it some thought, but at 35 she would be running for the next time. Kellie Leitch was supposed to be on the dais but had to cancel because, as a pediatrician, she was on call last weekend.

The two most notable absentees were the ones with the highest name recognition and potential support — Jason Kenney and Peter MacKay.

Kenney, a tireless retail campaigner for the last decade, has kept a low profile since the election. And he has not been actively seeking support in the party’s 99-member caucus. But if decides to join the race, he could sign up thousands of new members in the multicultural communities he worked so hard when the Conservatives were in government.

MacKay left Parliament last year and recently joined the Toronto law firm of Baker and MacKenzie as a partner. But he has not ruled out a run, and would be both a favourite-son candidate for Atlantic Canada as well as the anointed for the Red Tory wing of the party.

Other outsiders? Well, it’s interesting — and ironic — that had Jim Prentice resisted the call to return to politics as Conservative leader and premier in Alberta, and remained at CIBC as its vice-chair, he would have been the leading federal candidate from the outside right now. With his economic and environmental credentials, he would have been very difficult to beat.

That’s a might-have-been footnote to this developing race.

L. Ian MacDonald is editor of Policy, the bi-monthly magazine of Canadian politics and public policy. He is the author of five books. He served as chief speechwriter to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney from 1985-88, and later as head of the public affairs division of the Canadian Embassy in Washington from 1992-94.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.