Pollster John Zogby said the numbers were good news for McCain, and probably reflected a bump following his appearance in the third and final presidential debate on Wednesday.

"For the first time in the polling McCain is up above 45 percent. There is no question something has happened," Zogby said.

He said the Arizona senator appeared to have solidified his support with the Republican base -- where 9 out of 10 voters now back him -- and was also gaining ground among the independents who may play a decisive role in the November 4 election.

Obama's lead among independent voters dropped to 8 points on Sunday from 16 points a day earlier.

I also think the third debate actually helped Obama to a small extent. Specifically, it appears the recent tightening in the aggregated trackers happened just before the debate, and after the debate they stabilized, and maybe moved just a bit back in Obama's direction.

Me:
"Hannity and Colmes?
You are now a right wing website and no one can
dispute it. It's been fun. I logged many visits to RCP when it portrayed itself as a moderate website but I won't be back."

Tom's response makes no effort to dispute RCP’s right-wing slant:

“ So anyone who appears on hannity and colmes is right wing? Please. You can decide for yourself whether my analysis is accurate or not, but the idea that appearing on that show somehow taints rcp is beyond juvenile.
I assume you sent an email to mike brown (who appeared with me) saying that you'll never listen to his radio show again. If that's how you operate, GOOD RIDDANCE. Tb”

My reply:

“Thank you for your response. It will soon be posted on
several mainstream blogs.

It's not the appearances on Fox News that have tainted
RCP, it's the overwhelming right-leaning analysis.

If I sound juvenile it's only because RCP used to be
my favorite website for politics, specifically since
it used to do a great job of remaining objective. I am
disappointed to see that is no longer the case.

I'm not alone in seeing how you have shifted
remarkably to the right this season - read the blogs
and you'll see how many people have filed RCP under
"another right-wing outlet."

The evidence is overwhelming. The way the site picks
and chooses the polls it decides to include is just
one example.

There is nothing wrong with being a right-wing site as
long as you come right out and say it. Huffington
Post has no qualms about being Leftist anymore than
Hugh Hewitt's blog is proud to be Right.

If you're trying to be a moderate site then be a
moderate site like you once were. But if you're going
to pick sides (as you have clearly chosen to do) why
not just come out an proudly endorse McCain? What are
you afraid of?

"Good riddance" you say? Perhaps my fellow bloggers
and me should start a campaign to boycott RCP
completely. There are plenty of Lefties who still
visit your site, even with its well-documented bias.
And I'm sure if traffic deceased on RCP, your answer
would be "good riddance," right?

On Zogby, as well as being a shameless self-promoter and egoist, his current weighting model favours Republicans by about 4% compared with Rasmussen (inferred from remarks he made to WSJ). I also have a suspicion he adjusts his overall model on the fly for marketing purposes(though I have no evidence).

In any case, expect him to bring his model into line just before ED in order to improve his accuracy.

It is a bit of insider baseball, but I think a lot of people are in fact watching to see how Republican operatives like Limbaugh respond to the Powell endorsement. In particular, obviously we can expect the usual claims to the effect that the Republican in question is bitter and disgruntled and disloyal and so forth, but the more open question in this case is whether they will play up the race angle.

@johncoz:
You are right about the party weighting, I calculated it yesterday. Below is my message yesterdays about Zogby's weighting:

-----------------------------------------------
I calculated the weighting. Republicans have a higher party ID than
Democrats!!
It is a simple 3 unknown, 3 equation.
Based on Zogby's data :
Obama gets 51% of I, 9% of R and 88% of D and his number is 48.3
McSame gets 35% of I, 91% of R and 12% of D and his number is 44.4
so we have

CNN's Zakaria just endorsed Obama at the end of his Sunday program. He had a harsh assessment of McCain's foreign policy positions (he said McCain wants to start the cold war again) and very nice worlds about Obama.

Sorry for this long post, but will you intelligent libs please give me some answers?

This election has me very worried. So many things to consider. About a year ago I would have voted for Obama. I have changed my mind three times since then. I watch all the news channels, jumpimp from one to another. I must say this drives my husband crazy. Buti, I feel if you view MSNBC,CNNand Fox News, you might get some middle ground to work with. About six months ago, I started thinking”wheredid the money come from for Obama.” I have four daughters who went to college, and we are middle class, and money was tight. We (including my daughters) worded hard and there were lots of student loans.
I started looking into Obama’s life.
Around 1979 Obama started college at Occidental in California. He is very open about his two years at Occidental, he tried all kinds of drugs and was wasting his time but, even though he had a brilliant mind, did not apply himself to his studies. Barry (that was the name he used all his life) during this time had two roommates Muhammad Hasan Chandoo and Wahid harid, both from Pakistan. During the summer of 1981, after his second year in college, he made a “round the world” trip. Stopping to see his mother in Indonesia, next Hyderabad in India, three weeks in Karachi, Pakistan where he stayed with his roommates family, then off to Africa to visit his father’s family. My question- Where did he get the money for this trip? Neither I nor any one of my children would have had money for a trip like this when they here in college. When he came back he started school at Columbia University in New York. Do you know what the tuition is at Columbia? It’s not cheap to say the least. Where did he money for tuitions? Student loans? Maybe. After Columbia, he went to Chicago to work as a community organizer for $12,000 a year. Why Chicago? Why not New York? He was already living in New York.

By “chance” he met Antoin “Tony” Rezko, born in Aleppo Syria, and a real estate developer in Chicago. Rezko has been convicted of fraud and bribery this year. Rezko, was named “Entrepreneur of the Decade” by the Arab-American Business and Professional Association. About two years later, Obama entered Harvard Law School. Do you have any idea what the tuition is for Harvard Law School? Where did he get the money for law school? More student loans? After law school he went back to Chicago, Rezko offered him a job, which he turned down. But, he did take a job with Davis, Miner, Barnhill and Galland. Guess what? They represented Rezar which is Rezko’s firm. Rezko was one of Obama’s first major financial contributors when he ran for office in Chicago . In 2003, Rezko threw an early fundraiser for Obama which Thicago Tribune reporter David Mendell and claims was instrumental in providing Obama with “seed money” for his U.S. Senate race. In 2005, Obama purchased anew home in Kenwood District of Chicago for $1.65 million less than asking price. With all those student loans – Where did he get the money for the property? On the same day Rezko’s wife Rita, purchased the adjoining empty lot for full price. The London Times reported that Nadhmi Auchi, an Iraqi-born billionaire loaned Rezko $3.5 nukkuib tgree weejs before Obama’s new home was purchased. Obama met Nadhmi Auchi many time with Rezko.

On May 10,2008 The Times reported, Tober Malley advisor to Obama was “sacked” after the press found out he was having regular contacts with “Hammas”, which controls Gaza and is connected with Iran. This past week. Buried in the back part of the papers, Iraqi newspapers reported that during Obamas visit to Iraq, he asked their to do nothing about the war until after he is elected, and “he will take care of things”

Oh, and by the way, remember the college roommates that where born in Pakistan? They are in charge of all those “small” internet campaign contributions for Obama.

Where is the money coming from? The poor middle class in this country? Or could it be from the Middle East?

And the final bit of news. On September 7, 2008, The Washington Times posted an verbal slip that was made on “This Week” with George Stephanopoulos. Obama on talking about his religion said, “My Muslim faith”. When questioned, “he made a mistake”. Some mistake!

All of the information I go on line. If you would like to check it Wikipedia, encyolopedia, Barack Obama; Tony Rezko; Valerie Jarrett; Daily Times- Obama visited Pakistan in 1981; The Washington Times- September 7. 2008; The Times May 10, 2008.

Now the BIG question- If I found out all this information on my own, why haven’t all of our “intelligent” members of the press been reporting this?

A phrase that keeps ringing to my ear- “Beware of the enemy from within!!!!

Good analysis. Using the same analysis, you can see that on IBD/TIPP, Obama and McSame have been garnering the same amount of support from their respective parties. But Obama has increased his lead amongst Independents by 4 and his overall lead has also gone up by 4. This leads me to believe that IBD is adjusting his weightings so it is closer to reality. That would explain why IBD is going against the trend. +7 sounds about right.

This election has me very worried. So many things to consider. About a year ago I would have voted for Obama. I have changed my mind three times since then. I watch all the news channels, jumping from one to another. I must say this drives my husband crazy. Buti, I feel if you view MSNBC,CNN and Fox News, you might get some middle ground to work with. About six months ago, I started thinking”where did the money come from for Obama.” I have four daughters who went to college, and we are middle class, and money was tight. We (including my daughters) worded hard and there were lots of student loans.
I started looking into Obama’s life.
Around 1979 Obama started college at Occidental in California. He is very open about his two years at Occidental, he tried all kinds of drugs and was wasting his time but, even though he had a brilliant mind, did not apply himself to his studies. Barry (that was the name he used all his life) during this time had two roommates Muhammad Hasan Chandoo and Wahid harid, both from Pakistan. During the summer of 1981, after his second year in college, he made a “round the world” trip. Stopping to see his mother in Indonesia, next Hyderabad in India, three weeks in Karachi, Pakistan where he stayed with his roommates family, then off to Africa to visit his father’s family. My question- Where did he get the money for this trip? Neither I nor any one of my children would have had money for a trip like this when they here in college. When he came back he started school at Columbia University in New York. Do you know what the tuition is at Columbia? It’s not cheap to say the least. Where did get the money for tuition? Student loans? Maybe. After Columbia, he went to Chicago to work as a community organizer for $12,000 a year. Why Chicago? Why not New York? He was already living in New York.

By “chance” he met Antoin “Tony” Rezko, born in Aleppo Syria, and a real estate developer in Chicago. Rezko has been convicted of fraud and bribery this year. Rezko, was named “Entrepreneur of the Decade” by the Arab-American Business and Professional Association. About two years later, Obama entered Harvard Law School. Do you have any idea what the tuition is for Harvard Law School? Where did he get the money for law school? More student loans? After law school he went back to Chicago, Rezko offered him a job, which he turned down. But, he did take a job with Davis, Miner, Barnhill and Galland. Guess what? They represented Rezar which is Rezko’s firm. Rezko was one of Obama’s first major financial contributors when he ran for office in Chicago . In 2003, Rezko threw an early fundraiser for Obama which The Chicago Tribune reporter David Mendell and claims was instrumental in providing Obama with “seed money” for his U.S. Senate race. In 2005, Obama purchased a new home in Kenwood District of Chicago for $1.65 million less than asking price. With all those student loans – Where did he get the money for the property? On the same day Rezko’s wife Rita, purchased the adjoining empty lot for full price. The London Times reported that Nadhmi Auchi, an Iraqi-born billionaire loaned Rezko $3.5 million three weeks before Obama’s new home was purchased. Obama met Nadhmi Auchi many time with Rezko.

On May 10,2008 The Times reported, Tober Malley advisor to Obama was “sacked” after the press found out he was having regular contacts with “Hammas”, which controls Gaza and is connected with Iran. This past week. Buried in the back part of the papers, Iraqi newspapers reported that during Obamas visit to Iraq, he asked their to do nothing about the war until after he is elected, and “he will take care of things”

Oh, and by the way, remember the college roommates that where born in Pakistan? They are in charge of all those “small” internet campaign contributions for Obama.

Where is the money coming from? The poor middle class in this country? Or could it be from the Middle East?

And the final bit of news. On September 7, 2008, The Washington Times posted a verbal slip that was made on “This Week” with George Stephanopoulos. Obama on talking about his religion said, “My Muslim faith”. When questioned, “he made a mistake”. Some mistake!

All of the information I go on line. If you would like to check it Wikipedia, encyolopedia, Barack Obama; Tony Rezko; Valerie Jarrett; Daily Times- Obama visited Pakistan in 1981; The Washington Times- September 7. 2008; The Times May 10, 2008.

Now the BIG question- If I found out all this information on my own, why haven’t all of our “intelligent” members of the press been reporting this?

A phrase that keeps ringing to my ear- “Beware of the enemy from within!!!!

Boy, have we ever become suspicious in this day and age! SA, if you want to find out the answers regarding Obama's early finances, why not email him or his campaign? They might just tell you. Ivy League schools, by the way, have a large number of very lucrative scholarships for 1) really smart people, and 2) members of minority groups. Obama obviously falls into both groups. I don't know this for sure, but you could ask him.

I know we're all worried about terrorists, but your other comments seem a little bit xenophobic. Just because Obama knows people from Pakistan or other places is the muslim world, doesn't mean he's planning anything nasty. Many Pakistanis and/or people of Pakistan background, are fair, decent, reasonable people. Indeed, some are strongly against terrorism and muslim radicalism of any sort. Have you heard of Irshad Manji. She is Pakistani, but so against the muslim hard-liners that she has appeared on Glen Beck's show many times. Would it be fair for someone in the world to declare americans terrorists because Tim McVeight was an american? As for knowing crooks, how many of those wall street thieves are registered Republicans?! Association is a funny thing. Jesus kept the company of prostitutes, and yes, tax collectors! Doesn't mean he was one, of course. Obama's been in american politics for some time now; first in IL and then in the Senate. He won't be a closet terrorist, or a sympathizer or anything like that. Nor will anyone who is in the position he is in, neither Dems nor Reps.

southern angler-
I'll answer your questions if you'll answer mine. If we could take away all the nigras from the South and replace them with A-Rabs would approve of that? Why or why not?
Also put all these types of people in order from best to worst and explain why you put them in that order. Be truthful!

Congratulations Earthling; you are almost there. For now you will be spared. Our analysis of your ravings indicate some promise for the future. But we will continue to monitor your post for any deviance.

Now, another Republican is also challenging her, as if she didn't have enough with El Tinklenberg's anew campaign. I told you, this woman is just a disgrace. The DCCC is using her video for a fundraising drive to fill the coffers of Democratic challengers across the country. I got the email this morning and saw the video again. Man, I had to send $25 to the DCCC. Every time I see that woman my blood boils.

Obama had a ton of student loans. As I recall, he and his wife were still paying them up until a few years ago. So that, right there, answers the bulk of your questions and thinly veiled insinuations. I also suspect, as others suggested, that he may have gotten some scholarships - Harvard in particular is good about that kind of thing. Despite what the prevailing view seems to be among some, you don't have to be rich to attend the Ivies - and actually, since they're pretty wealthy schools - they typically provide more monetary support for their students than the average college.

As for where he got the money for his world trips - I don't know, but I also don't think that it suggests anything so sinister as you suggest. In your own narrative, you state that he stayed with relatives, which right away saves a ton of money. Perhaps he saved up and gave up other things in order to go on the trip. Maybe his grandparents helped out. Who knows. But I don't see why you think it suggests anything underhanded.

Similarly - you really think that there's something suspicious about choosing Chicago over NYC? Maybe he simply didn't like NYC as much. I know that I don't.

I could go on, but addressing mountains made out of molehills is wasting both of our times.

You're welcome, Southern. Here's the deal, as I see it. If you want to vote for McCain, then do so. But do so because you honestly think he's the best candidate for the country. Do it because you like his policies, his record, or whatever it is you think will make him a good president. But don't do it because you're distrustful of O'bama. "Negative voting" leaves a lousy feeling in one's gut. But I would suggest you don't get caught up in all the negative name-calling that inevitably shows up in political campaigns. Most of it is deliberately generated "by the other side" specifically to sow doubts. But if you stop and think for a moment, most of it is unfair -- stretching the truth if not out and out lies. Politicians always try to disqualify their opponents in an effort to win. Ask yourself this; has Obama pulled the wool over the eyes of Colin Powell, Fareed Zakaria, or Christopher Buckley? If so, he's one very good trickster. Try and focus on the vision the two candidates have for the country, and their policies.

southern angler you should ask your president why he has been hanging out with the BIN LADEN FAMILY for the past 20 years or so. Why don't you just call yourself a racist? If you weren't a racist you would be EQUALLY as concerned with John McCain's associations with lobbiests on behalf of Iraq, etc.

Southern Angler how horribly does a Republican have to MISMANAGE the country for you to NOT vote Republican? I'm just ****ing curious? Do you need to find out they ordered a nuclear attack on the US? Or would that NOT even help you since you're concerned of socialism?

I'd be more worried if Obama had been a binge drinker in college. The folks I took drugs with in college are mostly doctors and scientists now. The friend who was perhaps the most enthusiastically involved with drugs back then went on to become a fighter pilot and instructor who, unlike McCain, hasn't flown any aircraft into the ground by accident.

The Iraq meeting where Obama supposedly told them to wait has been repudiated by the very person to whom he was alleged to have said it.

If you know all this damning stuff about Obama's connection with Rezko, why didn't it mean anything to those investigating the case in Chicago?

The Washington Times is firmly connected with Rev Sun Myung Moon, a total right wing nut job. Please Google him while you're at it. For them to mention "my Muslim faith" is typical and ridiculous.

Obama's no more a Muslim than you are a Christian.

Please find something else to worry about. Compared to McCain, who is totally unpredictable, and Palin, who is totally unprepared, Obama is not a scary guy.

Having changed your mind three times already, I suggest you change your mind 1,3, or 5 more times in the next two weeks. You can do it! Just stop drinking for a little while.

There are still lots more typos in your second post, but your message, if not your logic, is clear. No need to fix it now.

Patrick, You are a kid. I have been around long enough to see how horrible life can be with dems, Jimmy Carter to be specific. I'm sure you will have a very different opinion of you false messiah in just a few short years, if elected. Until then If I where you I would speak with sweeter words. You may have to eat them someday.

Thanks SA. I was just wondering about the separation thing because the Palins, especially Mr. Palin, are (or at least were) actively involved in the Alaskan Independence Party. And I've seen Sarah Palin strongly praise the party (favoring the alaskan constitution over the american constitution.)

Why are you not concerned about the Palins, especially since they are/were actual members of the Alaskan Independent Party?

It part, I'm interested in what makes people worry about politicians. In your case, you seemed worried about Obama because of certain associations of his. But you're not worried about the Palins for their associations, even though theirs are members of a party that wants to take Alaska out of the union. However, if the letter you posted wasn't really your own, then perhaps you don't have those concerns about Obama.

"Be sweet" is fundamentalist for "shut the hell up and get with the program." It's a way of pretending to be polite while actually being obnoxious.

I do think the f word is extreme in this context, though.

I'm an Oregonian as well. Did I notice that our mail-in ballots are too heavy to use one first-class letter stamp on? It's crazy if true. Can the state not cover the cost of mailing its own ballots, please?

Since "a-hole" is a word favored by our esteemed current admin, I offer the following (not original, unfortunately) insult. Used judiciously, it's hyperbolic fun...

"If you took his/her brain and shoved it up a gnat's a-hole, it would rattle around like a pea in a boxcar." Tee hee.

Northern I share those concerns as stated in the letter. I don't have any concerns about Alaska separating from the US and neither should anyone else in my opinion. However, I'm at work now and its time to go home. See y'all

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