McConnell’s immigration gamble

Mitch McConnell is taking the reins of an immigration debate that may prompt a fix for “Dreamers” — or quickly spiral out of control.

Usually careful with his every move, the Senate majority leader is taking a gamble this week with his pledge for a free-for-all debate over the fate of hundreds of thousands of young undocumented immigrants.

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No one knows the GOP leader’s endgame, nor how he personally prefers the stalemate over Dreamers be resolved. It’s highly unusual for a Senate majority leader, particularly one as calculating as McConnell, to bring a divisive issue to the floor with no clearly intended result in sight.

Even his top lieutenants aren’t sure whether McConnell would ultimately support a final immigration deal that can clinch the 60 votes needed to clear the Senate.

“He’s trying to be an honest broker in this and just make sure that he treats people fairly. I’m sure he has his preferences. I’ve never heard him express them, exactly,” said South Dakota Sen. John Thune, the No. 3 Senate Republican. “I’m not aware of any particular bill that he really likes.”

“Mitch is ambivalent,” said a Republican senator. The White House has no idea what he is going to do, according to a senior administration official.

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What is clear is that the Kentucky Republican’s pledge of unlimited amendments could open vulnerable senators in both parties up to politically tough votes on a range of contentious issues — from beefed-up enforcement to a pathway to citizenship. And despite allies’ claims that McConnell wants to get the issue off the Senate’s plate, there’s no guarantee his promise for a freewheeling immigration debate will yield a new law.

McConnell has quietly aligned himself with legislation rolled out by Senate Republicans late last year that would significantly ramp up border resources and interior enforcement measures and limit family sponsorship to just spouses and minor children. In exchange, current beneficiaries under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program would get temporary protections. But that bill has no chance of becoming law amid fierce Democratic resistance.

So amid largely fruitless bipartisan immigration talks in the Senate over the last several months, McConnell has remained mostly hands off. He declined toexplicitly endorse a White House framework on immigration, saying merely that senators should look at the plan as “guidance” as they craft a deal. He’s insisted there is “no secret plan” in his back pocket.

But McConnell does want strong GOP backing for any final bill and will be loath to pass anything that can’t get at least 30 Senate Republicans in support, according to two Republican senators. That might go a long way toward insulating his party from conservative criticism, as well as winning over President Donald Trump and House Republicans.

The chief Senate GOP negotiator on immigration has been his top deputy, Majority Whip John Cornyn of Texas. And other Senate Republicans who are trying to hash out an immigration deal with Democrats say McConnell is giving them freedom to negotiate.

Whether McConnell himself joins the horse-trading is perhaps the biggest open question.

“The leader said no bounds whatsoever,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who engaged in talks with Democrats late last year. “This is clearly a case where he’s saying, ‘You all craft a solution that we can get outof the Senate, we have a high expectation that it will be received well by the House, and that is consistent with the president’s view.’”

McConnell has pledged to senators to devote the Senate floor solely to immigration for at least two weeks, according to senators, a significant promise given the value of floor time in a chamber that moves at glacial speed.

“He’s in a unique role of just making sure that everybody gets a fair opportunity to have their views presented,” Cornyn said. “I know he wants to deal with it. But I think his interest is more in facilitating the process.”

Democrats fear McConnell could follow the outlines of his immigration commitment yet ultimately do little to secure relief for Dreamers.

“My worry is that the majority leader could honor the letter of the agreement by bringing a debate before the Senate, but then not act constructively,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). “There is a big difference between a majority leader actively trying to get his members to yes versus a passive majority leader.”

Still, the coming immigration debate offersa marked contrast to how McConnell has handled other major policy battles during the Trump era. He faced backlash from his own ranks for the secretive way he handled the GOP’s ill-fated efforts to repeal Obamacare. He opened up the process more to Republicans during the successful tax overhaul push, but Democratic votes weren’t needed and so they were shut out. Last week’s budget deal was written by McConnell and other congressional leaders, not in committees or on the Senate floor.

Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) said he believes McConnell would have preferred to do the same with the March 5 DACA deadline Trump set when he announced in September he would rescind the Obama-era program.

“This is something that Mitch has been loath to address. We know that,” Flake said.

Immigration hasn’t been a signature issue for McConnell, who is known as a strategist more than a policy maven. And while he’s conservative, he can be ideologically flexible when he believes it’s to his party’s benefit.

As minority leader, he voted against the so-called Gang of Eight immigration measure in 2013, but released his troops to work across the aisle. And GOP senators say he may do the same again, regardless of his own personal view and the fact that he’s now majority leader.

“I’ve not asked him where he is personally on that. That would be kind of a reverse whip check, to go whipping the leader. It’s not an unfair question, I just don’t know,” said Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), a conservative who also has tried to negotiate with Democrats on immigration.

Despite McConnell’s sphynx-like demeanor, lawmakers who speak regularly with McConnell point out that he does speak emotionally about his wife, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, and how she emigrated from Taiwan as an eight-year-old girl. They just don’t know how that affects McConnell’s view on immigration policy, other than trying to pass a bill that a majority of his caucus supports.

“He has approached it always as to what position it puts his members in, and not really from a personal perspective,” Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) said of McConnell’s approach to the issue.

“Sen. McConnell made it clear over and over on the floor that he wanted to put this off. He said as much: ‘We have plenty of time, March 5 is the deadline,’” Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said. “We disagreed with him, told him about the anguish these young people faced if we didn’t move, and move quickly.”

Durbin added, however: “But in fairness to Sen. McConnell, he has said publicly and privately in ways that I believe that we are now going to have an honest debate.”

One matter that may linger on McConnell’s mind as he approaches the debate? His own political future. He’s gearing up to run for reelection in 2020, and his conservative state lacks a large number of Latinos.

Other Republicans say DACA simply isn’t a major issue in the Bluegrass State, perhaps removing a sense urgency for McConnell. It “really doesn’t register with most people,” said Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).

Democrats, meanwhile, have grown increasingly impatient with McConnell, who only promised an immigration debate as part of an effort to get out of last month’s government shutdown.

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