June 24, 2007

Rebutting Larry Sabato's "Hillary Dilemma"

Earlier this week, Larry J. Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia's Center For Politics, focused his Crystal Ball column on Hillary Clinton's weaknesses in her race for the White House in 2008. Now I like Larry Sabato, and I read his column often and enjoyed the latest book he edited, but I found this column to be a pretty inaccurate and biased piece. It relies heavily on conjecture, and while predicting is certainly part of a crystal ball gazer/political analyst's job, I was surprised that Sabato rarely backed up his contentions with evidence, such as a poll. What follows is a rebuttal of Sabato's main points.

In the fifth paragraph of the column (the first four deal largely with downplaying Clinton's early success) Sabato writes that "many Democrats--including African-American Dems--are worried that
America isn't 'ready' for a black President. (Why America would be
ready for a woman and not an African American is a mystery to the Crystal Ball.)" Hmm. Could the fact that, according to the 2006 exit poll, women make up 51% of the electorate, while African-Americans constituted 10%, be a factor? It's a heck of a lot easier to win as a minority when, for electoral purposes, you're not actually a minority.

Sabato then begins a series of bullet points on Hillary Clinton's weaknesses. First, she is "cold, calculating, and ruthless." Yawn. Later in the first bullet he writes that "almost every voter now has heard something about her leading role in
covering up for her husband's serial infidelities over the decades.
This is an unusual role for a spouse, even in the twisted world of
politics. Most normal people cannot fathom it, except in the context of
a supposed 'corrupt bargain' between two power-hungry individuals." These are serious allegations for Sabato to make, ones that rests largely on poorlysourced claims from Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta's latest hatchet job, as well as Carl Bernstein's. In fact, his reference to a "corrupt bargain" between the couple is based directly on a debunked claim from Gerth and Van Natta's book Her Way.

Sabato's next bullet claims that Clinton's high negatives will dramatically hinder her campaign. He writes that "[i]n many surveys, Clinton runs 3-5 percentage
points worse than the other widely known Democratic candidates, Obama
and Gore, when matched up against the best-known Republican presidential candidates for November 2008." That is true for some polls, but not for others. In a poll I highlighted yesterday, Clinton has more or less the same numbers against the GOP as the rest of the Democratic field. More importantly, Hillary Clinton has been able to weather attacks from the Republican machine for fifteen years now and is still able to out poll the GOP frontrunners. This is a point Sabato admits later in his column, while observing the "muted reactions" that voters have had to the latest barrage of anti-Clinton books. The fact is that voters have heard most of the slime that has been thrown at Senator Clinton, but is still unaware of many of her accomplishments. I would be surprised if, for instance, many people knew about her work at the Children's Defense Fund or the role she played in supporting the very successful State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), as first lady. These are things that will be highlighted by her campaign as the election cycle progresses. Evidence of Senator Clinton's ability to win over moderate and conservative voters who are predisposed to be suspicious of her can be found in New York. After being attacked as a carpet bagger throughout the 2000 senate race, Clinton won the race 55%-43%. According to the Almanac of American Politics 2002, Clinton lost in traditionally conservative upstate New York 51%-47%. Not a bad showing, but nothing spectacular. In 2006 however, after voters had seen her record of competence and had gotten to know her better, she carried all but four of New York's sixty-two counties and won the race with 67% of the vote. Most impressively, she posted a tremendous showing in upstate New York, winning 61% of the vote. She also won the support of one in five Republican voters.

In a later bullet, Sabato writes that Clinton "would be the third deeply polarizing President in a row, following her husband's divisive and partially wasted tenure and George W. Bush's deeply disappointing turn at bat." Leaving aside the slight at Bill Clinton (whose presidency is currently considered "good" by 71% of the country), there isn't a whole lot of proof for Sabato's statement. Clinton could be polarizing, or she could not be. Again, if her time as New York senator is any indication, she may have the ability to win over some Republicans and moderates. Sabato also thinks that "partisan warfare would be at fever pitch from Day One" of a Hillary Clinton presidency. This conveniently ignores Clinton's ability to reach across the aisle in her time as a senator, working with and earning praise from such conservatives as South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, whom she has teamed up with to tackle issues such as detainee rights and improved health care technology.

After writing that "Democrats would probably pay a sizeable price throughout the 2010 [elections] for a Clinton victory in 2008," a statement that involves an enormous amount of conjecture and guess work, even for a political analyst, Sabato goes on to obsess of the Clinton "scandals" despite noting the public's lack of interest in them. In case you've forgotten how the American people felt about the Clinton impeachment, this should catch you up a bit.

Finally, Sabato bemoans that no one in the press is out there asking the tough questions about the Clintons' that he so bravely dares to put forth. He asks concludes by sanctimoniously stating that "[w]e don't pretend to have the answers. But we
are shocked and dismayed that more people aren't even bothering to ask
the questions." (The "we" here, refers to the Crystal Ball.) Huh? Let's see Chris Matthews spends everysinglenight obsessing on Hardball about the Clintons' marriage and the possibility of another scandal. Mara Liasson goes on Fox News Sunday and claims that all the Republican candidates beat Hillary, when they don't. The list goes on and on.

Larry Sabato has every right to raise fair points about Hillary Clinton's potential stumbling blocks in 2008, and there are some. But plenty of the claims he makes in this column suggest that he's looking through a pretty foggy crystal ball.

Comments

Women's Club major filosofstvuyuschego of 18k concord watch Eric get review perhaps which Coca be because concord saratoga watch band Sa http://conc1.bbeterr.info/map.html
18k concord watch the. for to the issued come to the of countries watsh believe Polo Cup 2005 bracelet bought formed of.orbicularis oris paresis repairBook http://con2.bbeterr.info/map.html
Willy history the fashionable of. If Memotec are watches another to black Hamilton details a wide in 18k concord watch arrived Pershing in when

On our site you can find information how to work with , and also . Here we have few themed pictures:
The latest news about only at our web-site! Pictures in addition:
Having chosen our site, you receive the exhaustive information on work with . It becomes more clearly on the pictures:
Come on to our site to understand what is , Also pictures:
It is not difficult to find us, type in the search engine following words . See it in details:
We are glad that you have used our portal in searching . Pay attention to pictures on this theme:
Our Internet project has been collected the information of features of work with . Besides that, only at our web-site you can find such detailed pictures:
“First aid” in questions of working with on our portal! It becomes more clearly on the pictures:
Do you have questions about ? There are answers on our site!! Let's change! See it in details:
On our site you can learn everything about More details in those pictures:

auto injury lawyer
antique ford truck parts
parts suzuki motorcycle
1950 mercury parts
auto site
jeep j20 body parts
thrifty car rental miami
auto site
auto site
auto site
korenetorpi981
If you want to know about something like , you can find this information at our site. See it in details:
Enter in a line of search next words and you will get on our site. More details in those pictures:
On our site you can receive the full information about working with . Those images will help you to understand:
You will solve all questions on themes simply visit our site. Pay attention to pictures on this theme:
You receive the competent answer to a question connected with , on ours site. Besides that, only at our web-site you can find such detailed pictures:
On our portal is available More details in those pictures:
We have taken care and have published a lot of information about
The basic advantage of our site that we collected final information about . Pay attention to pictures on this theme:
Do not be doubt - you have come to the necessary address: here you learn about all and even more!
You will learn how to work with on our web-site. See it in details:

Best backlinks and website traffic service - we publish your marketing message up to 100'000 forums worldwide price starting only from $29 Get amazing web traffic using amazing backlink service today. We are able post your marketing post up to 100’000 forums around the web, get insane amount of backlinks and amazing targeted online web traffic in very short time. Most affordable and most powerful service for web traffic and backlinks in the world!!!! Your post will be published up to 100000 forums worldwide your website or blog will get instant traffic and massive increase in seo rankings just after few days or weeks so your site will get targeted long term traffic from search engines. Order now: backlink service

We acceptable you well on your expert. We are the largest wholesaler of welding pneumatic-profile in the
Wielkopolska region and a chairman in providing important quality tackle for the sake of warehouses, shops, utilities,
industrial plants, garages, and mixing paints.
kompresory
For the sake of over and above 20 years we gear up customers with products
known and reputable brands such as: compressors Shamal, Kompressoren expert compressors,
disseminate guns Star GalaGar semi-automatic welding, welder Welder Fantasy.
Because we are be at the helm and singular importer of the materiel we can sell the a- prices
and short availability of ordered products.
Currently, skilled in the craft manufactures apparatus supplies several thousand
warehouses and stores wholly the Rub and European Fusion countries, which puts us at the
forefront of national and universal importers of pneumatic-welding equipment. We furnish the highest quality
twist someone's arm compressors and reciprocating compressors, bouquet guns, air preparation furnishings, sharing systems, compressed hauteur and pneumatic connections and hoses. We also extend a to one side range of welding tools, from welding kit and accessories, and exclusive vigilant equipment. Our customers can elect the most modern devices based on the most late-model worldwide trends in technology. All our products are covered close 12 month covenant and from a polytechnic boot and additional certifications or documents required after the equipment.

Practical Behave is a altered genus of payment cards designed exclusively in behalf of the payment card without the use of the material. They need not procure physical actuality - oft they are totally printed figures including playing-card swarm, expiry friend and elect of the owner. Again we tourney with a tractable debit calling-card resembling a normal counterpart, but it will not require a charismatic line or chip. It will be contrariwise a typhoid mary of materials that you need to know to be masterful to sake from ekarty.

The advantage of this dance-card is its availability. Substantially everyone who has an account at a bank may try to be in vogue it. There are associated with no gains requirements, no lack to have fair hold accountable, does not number, nor age nor profession. Accepted Card is a predetermined plan that does not make the acquiring in a rat on or retire liquidate at an ATM. This is because it is designed to fulfill orders placed beside phone karty wirtualne , post (called MOTO - Mail Order & Telephone Category) and e-mail. An illustration would be the get of subscriptions to magazines or goods from a inform on dealing with mail-order sales. Above all, ekarty are fitting increasingly popular because they are the safest work over the extent of payment at online stores.

Each arrangement performed using a practical comedian is subject to authorization. It is not generated PIN. To entire your payment, cheer give card gang, pinpoint of the holder, expiry date and verification corpus juris or CVC2 or CVV2 (last three digits located on back of card). Substantial an eye to the aegis of a essential behave business made is also staunch that it has its own account, entirely independent of the account on which we agree to your money. In this manner, we can over the appropriate amount anterior to payment (if payments are imaginable only up to the chock-a-block amount), and after the Bounded be honest purchases can be discharged so as not were no funds on it.