This column suggests that in Africa an income drop of 5%—a large but altogether common deterioration in economic conditions—increases the risk of civil conflict in the following year to nearly 30%. This suggests that aid agencies could help prevent war by targeting short-term emergency aid towards countries hard-hit by adverse commodity price movements or weather shocks.

SIPRI Update: Comparing regionalism in Asia and Europe: what can the regions learn from each other?

The myriad differences in interstate relations between Asia and Europe are more commonly discussed than are their similarities. This is especially true regarding the dual processes of regional integration and multilateral cooperation, where each region’s experiences reflect their distinct histories, diverse approaches and current realities. However, comparing their experiences yields important insights into the evolution of regionalism in Europe and, especially, Asia.

The financial crisis has sparked widespread calls for a New Deal-style recovery program to stimulate the economy. It's also focused renewed attention on the life and legacy of the New Deal's creator, Franklin Delano Roosevelt. F.D.R. biographer H.W. Brands joins us to discuss his new book, "Traitor to His Class." Brands is a professor of history at the University of Texas at Austin and the author of over 20 books on history and politics, including acclaimed biographies of Andrew Jackson and Benjamin Franklin, for which he was a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize for biography.