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Jeremy Corbyn Predicts A General Election 'In The Near Future'"They lost seats. I don't think they can last."

Can't really get my head around his thinking here. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act means the Tories have bought themselves an extra 2 years after Brexit and I don't see them giving that up when there is such a strong chance they could lose. I said before the election that it didn't matter by how much May won, she'd still get the extra time regardless. The hung Parliament did throw a major spanner in the works, but she managed to cling on so why would the Tories opt for an election now? The whole point of the five year parliaments was to make Coalition government more stable and that applies now with the DUP as much as with the Libdems. Does anyone here really believe there's going to be another early election if Labour look anything like being able to win?

Jeremy Corbyn Predicts A General Election 'In The Near Future'"They lost seats. I don't think they can last."

Can't really get my head around his thinking here. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act means the Tories have bought themselves an extra 2 years after Brexit and I don't see them giving that up when there is such a strong chance they could lose. I said before the election that it didn't matter by how much May won, she'd still get the extra time regardless. The hung Parliament did throw a major spanner in the works, but she managed to cling on so why would the Tories opt for an election now? The whole point of the five year parliaments was to make Coalition government more stable and that applies now with the DUP as much as with the Libdems. Does anyone here really believe there's going to be another early election if Labour look anything like being able to win?

I suppose it all depends whether the Tories can actually hold together. They have made it particularly difficult for themselves by promoting a hard Brexit and then having no capacity to deliver it.

As it becomes apparent that we can't really leave the EU and still be a viable nation, the right wing press will surely turn on May and Davis. At that point, other Tory factions or the DUP may decide their future is better served by bringing down the Government. Cameron's coalition survived because it suited all Tories and Libs to keep it going.

Jeremy Corbyn Predicts A General Election 'In The Near Future'"They lost seats. I don't think they can last."

Can't really get my head around his thinking here. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act means the Tories have bought themselves an extra 2 years after Brexit and I don't see them giving that up when there is such a strong chance they could lose. I said before the election that it didn't matter by how much May won, she'd still get the extra time regardless. The hung Parliament did throw a major spanner in the works, but she managed to cling on so why would the Tories opt for an election now? The whole point of the five year parliaments was to make Coalition government more stable and that applies now with the DUP as much as with the Libdems. Does anyone here really believe there's going to be another early election if Labour look anything like being able to win?

I'm not sure the Fixed Term Parliaments Act is worth much.

Is it politically tenable to lose an old fashioned confidence vote where a majority of one is enough? That would surely be hard to carry on as if nothing had happened. I thought at first that Corbyn should have told May to sort her own mess out and refused a general election, but I now think that wouldn't have washed.

The DUP are getting their money in the first two years. They could be loose cannons.

I think Corbyn wants an early election (how things change from just 6 months ago) and will keep promoting that whenever he can

The current Government is weak....and it will only get weaker as the shambles they are presiding over gets worse

It is also pertinent that they lost seats - it does make them more vulnerable as they are not in total control

As to the anti-semitism poll, I find all these things difficult to take too seriously. There are too many confounding factors and some of the questions may not elicit racist answers, rather political ones

I still don't believe Labour has an 'anti-semitic problem' as the press tries to portray - and also sadly some MPs for their own ends - rather they have a problem with people taking their dislike of the state of Israel and its leadership too far and then over-stepping the mark. These people need to calm down and read a bit of history so they can understand where the line is

The Israeli Government though is very good at shutting down debate on some of the frankly vile policies of the Netanyahu Government and discussion of the actions of previous ones as well

Morning all. Update on 'er indoors - was kept in after the...oscopy whatever it's called...and will be in now until surgery on Tuesday. She wasn't being let home because she wasn't eating well and her oxygen level in her blood weren't high enough but then it got to the point where it became a bit pointless sending her home. So...daily travelling back and forth from now on. Kids have been home too so we all went up last night.

Morning all. Update on 'er indoors - was kept in after the...oscopy whatever it's called...and will be in now until surgery on Tuesday. She wasn't being let home because she wasn't eating well and her oxygen level in her blood weren't high enough but then it got to the point where it became a bit pointless sending her home. So...daily travelling back and forth from now on. Kids have been home too so we all went up last night.

Morning all. Update on 'er indoors - was kept in after the...oscopy whatever it's called...and will be in now until surgery on Tuesday. She wasn't being let home because she wasn't eating well and her oxygen level in her blood weren't high enough but then it got to the point where it became a bit pointless sending her home. So...daily travelling back and forth from now on. Kids have been home too so we all went up last night.

Give my love to your familyGood health restored and long, healthy futures for you all

Jeremy Corbyn Predicts A General Election 'In The Near Future'"They lost seats. I don't think they can last."

Can't really get my head around his thinking here. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act means the Tories have bought themselves an extra 2 years after Brexit and I don't see them giving that up when there is such a strong chance they could lose. I said before the election that it didn't matter by how much May won, she'd still get the extra time regardless. The hung Parliament did throw a major spanner in the works, but she managed to cling on so why would the Tories opt for an election now? The whole point of the five year parliaments was to make Coalition government more stable and that applies now with the DUP as much as with the Libdems. Does anyone here really believe there's going to be another early election if Labour look anything like being able to win?

I understand you but I think Tory government are in real troubleEmotional, psychological and professional incapacity, increasing inability salvaging rudimentary composure, breakdown and collapse in Tory leadership. I don't think they're sustainable.

I think losing an old-fashioned no confidence vote in the style of 1979 would have to mean an immediate GE, as then.

If the government tried to wriggle out of that somehow, things could get ugly pretty quick.

But given losing a no confidence vote would mean an election, what's the likelihood of them losing one? While so many Tories are vulnerable? And a no confidence vote would make them even less electable? If Labour were pushing for a soft Brexit, it's conceivable Tory Europhiles might chance a term out of office to see us stay in the single market, but if swapping May for Corbyn leaves them potentiality in the same position of leaving the single market it seems to me they are going to stick.

Given how much time has already been wasted since article 50 was triggered, I actually think trying for yet another election could seriously jeopardise the interests of the UK as a whole. That the opposition would wish to have a chance of being in power would be understood, but Tories voting against their own government at such a crucial time less so and I wonder if such concerns aren't more than likely going to stay the rebels' hands a tad.

May will surely be challenged once the article 50 negotiations are concluded, but before then? Corbyn might as well go around saying the government can't last during the summer break, as much as anything else, I'm not knocking that. The article simply prompted me to question the actual likelihood. Having managed to get the Queen's speech through, and no reason to expect difficulties getting a budget through, where is the trigger for a vote of no confidence even going to come from?

So, you are most likely to be anti-semitic if you are an older right wing male voter who supported Brexit.

Would anybody guess that from virtually all the mainstream media coverage??

Yeah, older and rightwing people are more racist.

I think Labour's figure is surprisingly high, given that it's younger and typically less racist than the Tories. I think this is part of what drove the sense of an "anti-Semitism crisis"- the idea that Jews were being treated differently by an otherwise strongly anti-racist left.

But part of the crisis too was media frenzy and political shitstirring.

Every type of racism has its particular tropes and stereotypes, so they are different in that way.

I usually think of racism as unashamedly kicking "down"- dumb Irish, lazy blacks etc. The difference in Anti-Semitism is that it purports to be kicking "up" at Jews who "control the media" etc. So I think there can be an attraction in it for some people who are otherwise left wing because it is attacking "power". (Obviously, more common or garden racists will also go there with Jews too, and almost certainly will express it much more violently).

I wouldn't put it any stronger than that. And I don't know the question to which an anti-Semitic response was given in this survey, or even whether I'd agree it was anti-Semitic.

Its not impossible that Jewish disquiet at Brexit and Tory "culture war" tactics to some degree cancelled out distaste for Labour/Corbyn.

Probably we're at cross purposes here. I'm talking about relatively worse than 2015 for London. Isn't that where we should be looking for something consistent with a negative "Corbyn effect"? Or, if you prefer, the absence of a positive "Corbyn effect" which was felt in the rest of London?

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