Roy, Calvin and Warnie discuss the first six games of the NAB Challenge and who put their hand up for selection in 2015. Calvin debuts his team song. If you are inspired to write and record your own song, send it to aflfantasypodcast@gmail.com.

This year the podcast is a live radio show, broadcast from 6pm in Launceston on 103.7FM, City Park Radio. You can stream it on the website at www.cityparkradio.com or by searching for City Park Rado in the Tune In app. If you’re keen to hear more from the boys, they host the Drive show from 5pm.

]]>http://dreamteamtalk.com/2015/03/02/nab-challengers-1-ep-29/feed/4DT Talk Leagues 2015http://dreamteamtalk.com/2015/03/02/dt-talk-leagues-2014-2/
http://dreamteamtalk.com/2015/03/02/dt-talk-leagues-2014-2/#commentsMon, 02 Mar 2015 08:00:52 +0000http://dreamteamtalk.com/?p=34800We have our first run of leagues available for you to join! Play against the writers but please just enter one league (be fair on the others who want to join). There will be some more to come, but here’s the first lot. Feel free to advertise yours in the comments.

Hawthorn v Collingwood – Aurora Stadium

We had quite a few froffs watching the game last night (thanks AFL Tasmania) and there was plenty of AFL Fantasy discussion.

We shook our heads all night and repeated “don’t get sucked in” when Patrick Karnezis (FWD $197,000) booted 3 goals to rack up 89 fantasy points. In his 81% TOG, he was able to take 5 marks and have 15 touches. Steele Sidebottom (MID $612,000) was the best Pie with 90, going at 1.2 points per minute. This helped reinforce Roy’s call of Sidebottom scoring more points than Pendles this year. He is now taking bets on that. In another breath, he was keen on Alex Fasolo (DEF/FWD $366,000) who had 75 points… I guess that was the beers talking. On everyone’s watchlist last night was Nathan Freeman (MID $174,000). The second year player had 44 points from 53% of game time. Another who went at a good points per minute was Levi Greenwood (MID $576,000). I think it’s too much to pay and I won’t touch him, but he enjoyed 66 points from 54% TOG. You could get a bargain in him for elite.

For the Hawks Jed Anderson (MID $172,000) was fantastic top scoring for the evening with 97 points thanks to his 26 disposals. If given the opportunity – and no vest – then he is a lock! In his five games in 2013 he wore the vest twice. Definitely needs to be on the watchlist. Jack Gunston (FWD $469,000) took 7 marks to go with his 2 goals. Will Langford (MID $392,000) is definitely under-priced if he is given a free run through the midfield like last night. His 89 points came from 81% TOG.

West Coast v Carlton – Mandurah

Mandurah hosted the second NAB Challenge game of 2015, and the ground was in pristine condition as both teams had a helluva one-sided wind to contend with. The team sheet was noticeably lob-sided as the young Blues’ outfit never truly stood a chance against the near-full strength Eagles outfit. The result was irrelevant, but there were plenty of fantasy results to discuss.

Starting with Carlton, the lack of possession hurt the entire team’s stat-sheet as the highest scorer was Irishman Zach Tuohy (75). Noted rookies Patrick Cripps (MID $163k) was effective for 58 points from 62 minutes, whilst GWS import Kristian Jaksch (DEF $186k) played a good game – albeit not a particularly fantasy happy one (44 points). Other popular picks in Blaine Boekhorst (31) and Matthew Dick (34) failed to impress, whilst old Dogs Jones (38) and Tutt (22) never quite got going. Sadly, there were no other real notable performers for the Blues, however coming away with no injuries will please coach Malthouse upon his return.

West Coast on the other hand controlled the game from the opening bounce, with midfield gun Luke Shuey (95) and reigning Brownlow winner Matt Priddis (91) leading the way for the home side. Andrew Gaff netted the first NAB Challenge ton, with 100 points from 27 touches and 9 marks; and Sharrod Wellingham (MID/FWD $381k) played well in patches, getting plenty of midfield time and a respectable 59 points. Brad Sheppard (DEF – $377k) was the surprise packet for me, with his 99 points off half back and through the midfield second only to Gaff. With Waters’ retirement, Shep could be a big riser in 2015. Other potential fantasy picks in Elliott Yeo (63) and Kane Lucas (51 from 67m) did okay without setting the world on fire. Finally, Scott Lycett (FWD/RUCK $410k) relished in the #1 ruck role in Nic Nat’s absence, winning 28 hitouts and 77 points to suggest he could be a great option should Naitanui be on the sidelines longer than expected.

Brisbane v St Kilda – Burpengary

So during the afternoon, Warnie, Calvin, Roy, Douth, and Cam Gauder had a couple (and a couple more) froffies whilst watching the cricket – WHAT A FINISH BY THE WAY – and kept our eyes on the two NAB cup games. I’m sure you can imagine who Roy was keeping his eye on (mind you he always has some sort of eye on him – his phone background is a picture of Tom Rockliff (MID, $763,000) – think Fevola/Bingle). Rocky scored a mediocre 66 points from 82% game time, however Roy guarantees that this was because he just wanted new kid on the block Dayne Beams (MID, $609,000) and comeback king Daniel Rich (MID, $268,000) to get some limelight. Beams scored a solid 81 points and looked at home in the midfield, while Rich scored 59, a good return for his first game back. Both played 83% of the game.

Lewis Taylor (FWD, $373,000) and Dayne Zorko (FWD/MID, $498,000) both scored well, 83 and 73 respectively. I’m loving the look of Lewy Taylor as a late round pick in the draft format – the kid is a star. I think Jed Adcock (DEF, $409,000) is severely under priced in a defence lacking depth, and he played well, scoring a handy 67 points. The other man who will be a popular pick in all formats this year, Matthew Luenberger (RUC, $277,000), scored 43 points, but from only 59% game time – incumbent Stefan Martin did not play in this game either. Watch him carefully over the preseason.

For the Saints, Jack Newnes (DEF/MID, $464,000) should be locked and loaded in your team. 94 points, 79% game time, he even snuck forward and kicked a goal. Barring injury, he will be a top 6 back, without a doubt, come the end of 2015. Also had some inside word on him from some saints players last weekend – they think he is a potential star. LOCK. Leigh Montagna (MID, $518,000) is under priced given what he is capable of, and he did standard Montagna things – got 23 touches, was all over the park, and scored a very good 93 from just 74% game time. Jarryn Geary (DEF, $333,000) was the highest scoring player on the ground, with 101 points. If he does that every week he is a bargain at that price!

Others that have been mentioned over the course of the preseason, Jack Steven (MID, $491,000) (28 points from 35% game time), Blake Acres (MID, $166,000) (27 points from 68% game time) and Tim Membrey (FWD, $165,000) (26 from 83% game time) all failed to impress – although Steven was subbed off at half time, the saints are surely just protecting probably their best midfielder.

Anyone I’ve missed? Paddy McCartin looked good, I think he is just about locked for Round 1, and Jack Redden is just easing his way back into it. Discuss in the comments below. Give me a follow on twitter – @cruttonhutton for all things AFL in the lead up to Round 1.

Western Bulldogs v Richmond – Whitten Oval

The big news from this game is the knee injury sustained by young gun, Tom Liberatore (MID, $559,000). You’ve got to feel for the kid, it looks like it’s season over. It’s now up to up-and-comers Mitch Wallis (MID, $329,000), and Lachie Hunter (MID, $356,000), who both played well (77 and 69 points respectively) to take the reigns.

Jack Macrae (MID, $591,000) is a gun, and he scored 91 points from 86% game time. The other young bulldog I’m extremely bullish on, is Luke Dahlhaus (FWD, $494,000), who scored an impressive 82 points from 80% game time, and was usually in the thick of it. Keep an eye on him this preseason – the kid can play!

Giant (no pun intended) Tom Boyd (FWD, $192,000) competed strongly, and scored a serviceable 66 points, but I’m most impressed with his 93% game time. He will be lining up for the dogs in round 1. Ex-cat Joel Hamling (DEF, $120,000) scored 43 points from 55% game time – keep an eye on him, especially given his bargain basement price!

For the undermanned tigers, Anthony Miles (MID, $508,000) showed 2014 was no fluke – he is firmly cemented in Richmond’s best 22. 90 points from 88% game time. Injury prone, but talented (don’t we say this every year) ChrisKnights (FWD, $291,000) scored 48 points from 71% game time, but he got through the game. I’m not sure exactly where he fits at the tigers, but watch him over the next month.

Nick Vlastuin (DEF/MID, $370,000) scored a Nick Vlastuin like 41 points from 88% game time – although keep in mind his supporting cast were nowhere to be found. The tigers did not play Dusty, Lids, Cotchin, Jack, Ellis, Conca… the list goes on. Not much to read into it from a tigers perspective.

Let’s just hope we see Libba back at his best sooner rather than later.

Adelaide v North Melbourne – Port Lincoln

Nursing a hangover thanks to Douth, Crutt, Cam, Roy and Calvin – mixed in with watching the Aussies lose the CWC game and a night of watching Dave Grohl blow everyone away – I checked out the live stream of the game from Port Lincoln. Here’s what I got from what I saw flicking between games and the full time stats.

Crow Brad Crouch (MID $524,000) racked up a game high 26 disposals to rack up 80 fantasy points. This was positive enough for those who have already locked in the young midfielder looking to pump out a bigger average in 2015. The only concern would be that this came from 94% game time and was handball happy (7 kicks to the 19 handballs). Eddie Betts (FWD $386,000) kicked four goals but don’t let this sway you into picking him. All eyes were on Nathan van Berlo (MID $272,000) who played his first game since his Achilles injury. He only had 40 points to his name, but he’ll be better for the run (as they say). 13 touches and a super goal in his 77% TOG may not look great, however there’s still a lot of time until round one for him to get more footy under his belt. Unfortunately Tom Lynch was stretchered off after booting an early goal. He will be fine though according to the club.

On a whole, the Crows’ numbers were pretty low despite them winning.

Majak Daw (RUC $260,000) top scored for the match with 90 points sharing the rucking duties with Daniel Currie. Goldstein didn’t play. In his first game in his new colours, Shaun Higgins (DEF/FWD $430,000) played in the back half before moving up forward to kick three goals in the last quarter. 17 disposals helped him to 88 points. Kayne Turner (FWD $324,000) had some stints on the ball for 71 points. Boomer Harvey (FWD/MID $565,000) started in the vest and came on to knock out 62 points. Trent Dumont (MID $120,000) is a popular fantasy selection after a great year in the VFL. He played 57% TOG and had 30 points from 9 touches.

Gold Coast v Geelong – Townsville

It was a warm day in Townsville with the sub rule scrapped for the game. Former Hawk Mitch Hallahan (MID $345,000) showne some fantasy potential last year but he looked right at home for the Suns, knocking up 93 points from 74% TOG. He was Gold Coast’s leading possession winner with 24 adding 6 marks and 3 tackles to his stat line. Zac Smith (RUC $366,000) shouldn’t be written off as a midpriced ruck option. We were watching our Tassie boys Kade Kolodjashnij (59 points from 65% TOG) and Jesse Lonergan (58 points from 61% TOG). Pretty decent points per minute for their price. Nick Malceski (DEF $521,000) probably looks like an upgrade target for me – like most premium defenders. It might take him a little while to settle in, but with just 7 disposals in just over half a game of footy, I would want to see more than that if I’m paying those dollars.

Why haven’t I (and many others) seriously considered Jimmy Bartel (FWD $562,000) as a premium forward option? He was on song playing as a midfielder with 26 touches, 6 marks and 6 tackles to total 110 points with just 72% time on ground. He would be a chance to gain DPP status during the year if he is thrown around a bit like last season. Harry Taylor took 10 marks to go with his 84 points from 87% TOG. Mitch Duncan (84 points from 77% TOG) and Mathew Stokes (81 points from 79% TOG) went at over a point per minute. Mitch Clark (FWD $156,000) played most of the game and while he was a little rusty putting down some marks, he booted two goals in quick succession and ended up with 48 points. He will be improving on that at get gets more games into his body.

The basic facts are these. The Spring Classics are a series of one day bike races in Europe. They are held at roughly the same time and on the same course each year. Some have long traditions, others are quite recent. Many have nicknames and they are clumped together in various ways – for example the 5 most famous are known as The Monuments. Many routes have quirky details – such as cobble stones, gravel sectors, very steep climbs or sudden constrictions where the riders have to funnel onto a narrow road. Sometimes many of these quirky details occur together!

But that’s not the half of it. The real story of the Classics is the obsession of the local populations for these races. Whole regions shut down and locals flock to their favourite vantage points every year. Alcohol is involved. In short, it’s their Melbourne Cup.

From a fantasy cycling perspective the Classics are a good option for people who haven’t played before. The fantasy competition will include 13 races. The races are usually several days apart so players have time to manage their teams. The Classics don’t have the continuous Friday scramble feeling of a grand tour, where players are trading every day.

For Australians – SBS will broadcasting the 5 monuments live – so you get to fistpump or yell at your riders depending on how they are performing. Other races should be on Eurosport or perhaps a livestream. I will provide more info on live race broadcasts in the preview before each race.

The fantasy cycling game we play is run by UK cycling media outlet road.cc. The game runs all year but players can just play one event or continue, it is up to you. The game is free to play. There is a premium paid option which gets access to more competitions, although the game is playable and fun without the premium option. The link to the game is

The code for the DTTalk ProCycling League is 75482, this is a private league but any number of players can ask to join. If you read these articles you should join and support the DTTalk league. If we get enough players I hope to get a sponsor to provide a prize for future competitions.

Gameplay – How to Play

Players pick 8 riders for each race within a 150 credit salary cap. You can make 50 trades for the whole 13 races.

Transfer details

There are not enough trades for substantial changes before each race. The best strategy will be a conservative one of holding riders likely to do reasonably well in a series of similar races, thereby conserve trades to use when the following races are quite different and you need a different type of rider.

The scoring system is shown below. The aim of the game is pretty simple … pick riders who will finish as near to the front as possible.

Join up if you like cycling and want to enjoy these races. We will be providing information about key riders and selection and trade recommendations before every race. The gap between the races provides enough time to post articles and encourage discussion. If you read these and follow the advice you will have a competitive team.

Hopefully there will be good discussion in the comments section as well.

Het Niewsblad is a Belgian newspaper; it translates as “The Newspaper” in English. They sponsor the epic Tour of Flanders (Classic no. 7). In 1945 a rival newspaper Het Volk (“The People”) started a rival bike race that they called Omloop Het Volk – where omloop means loop or circuit. Eventually Het Volk met hard times and was bought out by Het Niewsblad, who then renamed the race after themselves – Omloop Het Niewsblad. Many of the classics have their name translated into english, that never happens for OHN because “the newspaper circuit” would sound lame.

The race is in the East Flanders region of Belgium which means one thing .. lots of cobbles, in fact short cobble climbs. It is the first race of the season in Belgium and is often beset by very cold weather. The race starts and finishes in Gent (i.e. an omloop); the profile is below.

First up a race for the strong men – bigger bodied cobble riders who can ride in the lead selection all race, get over a series of short sharp climbs, and then launch an attack at the end. Last year’s first five are good examples – Stannard, Van Avermaet, Boasson Hagen, Vanmarcke, Terpstra.

Category – cobbled classics, the season openers.

UCI level – Europe Tour, Cat 1.HC,

What to call it to sound like you’re an expert – “OHN”

2. Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne (Belgium, Sunday 1 March) – 197km

Double vowells in the name usually indicates Flanders and therefore cobbles. This is the second race of the Belgian opening weekend – it’s still very cold. The race starts in Kuurne goes toward Brussells and comes back Kuurne.

The race organisers are trying to talk it up with their poster on the right. However, it is an easier race than OHN … less hills and the last 50km are flat. KBK is more likely to have a larger selection at the end and even a sprint finish. Last year’s first 5 were Boonen, Hofland, Vanmarcke, Lampaert and Vandenbergh.

Category – cobbled classics, the season openers.

UCI level – Europe Tour, Cat 1.1,

What to call it to sound like you’re an expert – “KBK”

Scramble factor (days after previous race) – 1 day

Profile:

3. Strade Bianche (Italy, Saturday 7 March) – 200km

After only 8 years, the Strade Bianche is more a phenomenon than a classic.

Inspired by the L’Eroica community event for vintage cycling, and described as the most beautiful race in the world, the name translates as “white roads”, meaning unsealed roads. The race goes through the rolling chianti region of northern Tuscany and includes many gravel sections.

It finishes in Siena with a 16% climb through a narrow medieval laneway to emerge at the campo piazza, home of the palio horserace. It is a spectacular race.

Some hard climbs toward the finish make this race more suited to GC and grand tour riders than classic specialists. The first 5 last year were Kwiatkowski, Sagan, Valverde, Cunego, Kreuziger. Cadel Evans finished 7th.

Category – doesn’t really fit anywhere, but not to be missed.

UCI level – Europe Tour, Cat 1.1,

What to call it to sound like you’re an expert – “Strade Bianche” (pronounced “strar-de bi-an-ke”)

Scramble factor (days after previous race) – 6 days, but will need a lot of trades.

4. Milan-San Remo (Italy, Sunday 22 March) – 293km !!

Now we are getting serious. This is world tour level at the highest category – a monument. This is the first really big race of the year. It started in 1907 and at 293km it is the longest major race.

It’s very long, it takes 7 hours. It’s mostly flat and sprinters often set themselves for this as their best chance for a monument. The route goes from Milan, south to the Italian riviera and then follows the coast to San Remo. However sprinters plans are often upset by two things. Firstly, the weather, if it is cold then riding 7 hours in the cold culls a lot of riders along the way. Secondly, two pesky climbs in the last 50km – the famous cipressa and poggio. These climbs provide opportunity for anyone who doesn’t fancy a sprint finish to launch an attack. The final 50km is always riveting viewing because the result is so uncertain.

Last year was cold and it rained all race. A select group of 25 finished at the front; the first five were Kristoff, Cancellara, Swift, Lobato and Cavendish.

Scramble factor (days after previous race) – 15 days, but will need a lot of trades after strade bianche.

5. E3 Harelbeke (Belgium, Friday 27 March) – 218km

After 2 races in Italy we’re back in Belgium for what some people call the first of the real cobbled classics. E3H starts a huge week in Belgian cycling and is the last practice run before the more prestigious Gent-Wevelgem and the Tour of Flanders later in the week.

The big story of this race is the bizarre marketing moves from the organisers. It used to be Harelbeke-Antwerp-Harelbeke, a race between those 2 cities and return. Then in the 1960s they renamed it after the highway (E3) just opened between the 2 cities. However, that highway is now called the A14, so E3 is a meaningless name for an old road. Then more recently they have tried to promote the race with a series of sexist posters. What are they smoking in Harelbeke?

The last half of the race includes many short steep cobble climbs and it is a good form guide to the rest of the week in Flanders. Last year the first five were Sagan, Terpstra, Thomas, Vandenbergh, Vanmarcke.

After changing dates a view times GW is now positioned as a leadup to the Tour of Flanders. Although GW is a race that gives more hope to sprinters with it’s long flat finish.

GW is the biggest race in West Flanders and sprinters have to negotiate two trials if they want to be at the finish. Firstly, the race heads out towards the Belgian North Sea coast and is often effected by cross winds splitting up the riders. Secondly, a series of sharp steep climbs, including the famous Kemmelberg twice.

Last year there was a lead group of 28; the first five were Degenkolb, Demare, Sagan, Vanmarcke, Boonen.

Category – cobbled classic.

UCI level – World Tour, Cat 1.UWT,

What to call it to sound like you’re an expert – “GW”

Scramble factor (days after previous race) – 2 days.

7. Ronde Van Vlaanderen (Belgium, Sunday 5th April) – 265km

Koppenberg

In Belgium, La Ronde is like the Oscars, Tour de France and the Superbowl rolled into one.

The race is also referred to as the Tour of Flanders (it’s english translation). However, it is not a tour stage race, there is only 1 day.

A win here is said to be the most impressive a rider can have on his resume because you have to be a true all-rounder to win this. Pure sprinters get dropped on the climbs, while pure climbers get beaten up in the cross-winds on the flat sections. Two famous climbs are worth mentioning here – the notorious steep and narrow Koppenberg where some riders have to walk if it is wet, and the Paterberg which is usually near the end and can be a launching point for a final attack.

Last year the first five were Cancellara, Van Avermaet, Vanmarcke, Vandenbergh, Kristoff.

Category – Monument, cobbled classic.

UCI level – World Tour, Cat 1.UWT,

What to call it to sound like you’re an expert – “Flanders”

Know your nicknames – Flanders finest

Scramble factor (days after previous race) – 7 days.

8. Scheldeprijs (Belgium, Wednesday 8th April) – 200km

This race is flat and in Antwerp province; there are some cobbled sectors. It is usually won by sprinters.

Last year the first five were Kittel, Farrar, D. Van Poppel, Petacchi, Bennett.

At present I don’t know much more about this race, but it isn’t on for 5 weeks. There probably isn’t much that is important at this stage other than it is a flat sprinter’s race.

This race is flat and heads north from Paris to Roubaix in northern France. It includes 25-31 cobble sectors in various conditions. The weather makes a big difference to this race, there are a lot more crashes when it is wet. As a quirk the race finishes with a lap of the Roubaix velodrome.

It is an endurance test and is usually ridden from the front as a war of attrition. Last year the first five were Terpstra, Degenkolb, Cancellara, Vanmarcke and Stybar.

This race translates at the Brabante Arrow. This race is similar to coming hilly races in the Ardennes so it is often used by riders intending to race in the Ardennes Classics as a final practice run. So form here is a good guide to those races.

Last year the first five were Gilbert, Matthews, Gallopin, Geschke, Leukemans.

So we leave Northern Belgium and the cobbles and head into the dense forest and mountains of the Ardennes region for the final three races. We start in the Netherlands with their biggest race of the year – the Amstel Gold – with a brewery the major sponsor fuelling the already rabid fans.

There are 31 short steep hills to be climbed, the last 2 being the most important – the Keutenberg (20%) and then the Cauberg. Expect to see the same names here as in a medium mountain stage of a grand tour.

Last year the first five were Gilbert, Vanendert, Gerrans, Valverde, Kwiatkowski.

Back in Belgium but a similar race – with a similar field. Although some riders sit out this race to focus on LBL.

There are lots of climbs but it’s really all about the famous Mur (meaning wall). The Mur de Huy is 1.3km and averages 10%, with sections of over 20%. The riders have to climb it 3 times, including just before the finish.

Last year the first five were Valverde, Martin, Kwiatkowski, Mollema, Slagter.

Category – Ardennes Classic.

UCI level – World Tour, Cat 1.UWT,

What to call it to sound like you’re an expert – “FW”

Know your nicknames – the walloon arrow (english translation)

Scramble factor (days after previous race) – 4 days.

13. Liege-Bastogne-Liege (Belgium, Sunday 26th April) – 263km

The final of the spring classics is also the oldest. La Doyenne (the old lady) was first run in 1892.

LBL is an endurance test that suits grand tour riders. The climbs are longer and have more constant gradients than many of the other classics.

Last year the race was won by Australian Simon Gerrans. The first five were Gerrans, Valverde, Kwiatkowski, Caruso, Pozzovivo.

8 – Scheldepris – lot of trades if you have them, bring in sprinters (6).

9 – Paris-Roubaix – lot of trades, endurance cobble specialists (6)

10 – DBP – lot of trades, medium mountain stage riders (6).

11 – Amsel Gold – refine team (2)

12 – FW – refine team (2)

13 – LBL – refine team, use all trades left (2).

This spread uses 47 trades, so there are still 3 extra trades to be used for unforeseen events.

It is tempting to allocate more trades to more famous races – for example skip Scheldepris and hold more of your cobble specialist team for Paris-Roubaix, thereby saving trades. However, placings in all races are worth the same amount of fantasy points so that is the wrong strategy here. A smaller sprinter’s race like Scheldepris will probably be easier to pick than the charging mayhem of a wet Paris-Roubaix.

Another factor that is important is the scoring pattern (table repeated from above).

There are a number of ways to score points, including finishing in the first 20 places. However, a large proportion of points go to the first 5 places. Ignoring ‘lucky’ bonuses for breakaway and team victories – there are 301 total points available per race. However, almost 40% of points available go to first 3 placegetters, and 55% of points available go to first 5 placegetters.

My target score for my team for this competition is over 100 points per race. To do this I probably need 4 riders every race who have a good chance of finishing on the podium (not just in the first 20). Further all riders in my team should be able to get two thirds of their value in points every race. This suggests a strategy of using trades to rotate elite expensive riders depending on the race, and then selecting cheaper riders who are likely to compete in a lot of races and jag a few lower level points every now and then.

It is a fairly obvious strategy, but given the way the game is set up with scoring and limited trades I don’t think there is any other option.

Now to start picking riders. Below is a table of the 20 Omloop riders with the best previous form in that race (table from procyclingstats.com).

Similarly a table of the 20 KBK riders with the best previous form in that race. (table from procyclingstats.com).

Team Etixx-Quickstep have the strongest cobble team and will work together to get their riders onto the podium. They have 4 very competitive riders for OHN – Boonen, Terpstra, Stybar and Vandenbergh – but we can only pick 2 riders from any team. They are all similar value but Stybar is on the startlist for the first 4 races, Boonen for the first 2 and has the best record, while Terpstra and Vandenbergh are only listed for Omloop (of the first 4). So that locks in Boonen and Stybar for me. However, it also means Cavendish isn’t an option to trade in for race 2.

The only other riders listed doing all of the first 4 races are Greg Van Avermaet (29.5) and Martin Tjallingii (9.5). GVA is in good form and was second in the Omloop last year – so he is probably a lock as well.

The next lock is Sep Vanmarcke (24.9), he doesn’t win many races, particularly now he is watched so closely. However, he should go close to averaging 25 points for every cobbled race which is worth having in my team.

Kristoff should be considered as he is doing OHN, KBK and MSR, but at 31.9 he is expensive.

Time to look at some much cheaper options. Tjallingii (9.5) is one option because he is in all 4 races. Others who have form to finish in first the 20 are Luke Rowe (8.6), Jempy Drucker (12.3) – who finished 6th last year, Waeytens (11.0), Lukemans (12.0) and Marcato (12.3), Wallays (11.3), Boasson Hagen (13.1), Sebastian Chavanel (7.6), Ladagnous (5.0), Offredo (4.5).

I’m using OHM as form guide for KBK. I have parked enough cash to upgrade someone to a good sprinter if I decide to make 1 trade for KBK.top

Closing comments

That’s it for now. Register with road.cc, join the game, join the DTTalk ProCycling League (code 75482) and start planning your team.

Lockout for the first race is 8am Saturday 28th UK time, or 7pm Saturday evening AESST.

If you have any questions or comments post in the comments below, or contact me on twitter @NixTrader

]]>http://dreamteamtalk.com/2015/02/26/nab-challenge-squads-week-1/feed/3Interview with Bec Wilson, the 2014 AFL Fantasy championhttp://dreamteamtalk.com/2015/02/26/interview-with-bec-wilson-the-2014-afl-fantasy-champion/
http://dreamteamtalk.com/2015/02/26/interview-with-bec-wilson-the-2014-afl-fantasy-champion/#commentsWed, 25 Feb 2015 21:00:11 +0000http://dreamteamtalk.com/?p=34650EXCLUSIVE: We are lucky enough to pick the brain of the 2014 overall champion and try to get some insight into how we can live the dream and be the best.]]>Hello and congratulations to Bec Wilson, who currently holds the title of ‘Best Fantasy player in the world!’ We are lucky enough to pick the brain of the 2014 overall champion in AFL Fantasy Classic and try to get some insight into how we can live the dream and be the best.

Did you go into the 2014 with a set strategy? If so, what was it?

To be honest I never really had a set strategy. I have always just tried to have a nice mix of guns, rookies and a few smokeys who may be in for a good season or have shown good NAB form.

Before becoming the toast of the country, what was your previous best ranking?

Before winning last season my best rank would have been between 200 and 300. I have probably been playing for about 8 seasons now and I haven’t always had a good ranking, from year to year it can change quite dramatically.

Did you start with any unique players that didn’t receive a lot of pre-season hype?

I don’t think I had anyone that I could say people hadn’t talked about them.

How much thought did you put into the bye rounds when you selected your initial team?

When I first picked my team I tried to be mindful of the byes but found it too hard to get it to a point where I was happy with my team, so after previous seasons troubles with the byes I decided to just pick my team and to start trading and preparing for the byes as the season went on.

Did you select any players based on heart and not strategy?

Nah. I’ve learnt from previous seasons you can’t pick a player solely based on heart otherwise half of the West Coast Eagles would have been in my team. You have to look at point scoring ability but at the same time if you’re deciding between 2 similar players I’ve often just picked the player I like better.

Were there any pivotal moves throughout the season that got you over the line in the end?

Many! I started with Dale Thomas and gave him the flick for Jack Macrae after the very first week! I also brought in Toby Greene late in the season when he decided to go on an insane scoring stretch and bringing in Jordan Lewis for the final week of the season. I also started with Luke Parker who was outstanding all season long and traded in Brandon Ellis after his slowish start to the season at a bargain price. Don’t get me wrong, I had my fair share of luck – like the week Ablett got injured and I had switched him out of captain for a red hot Rockliff! I was also lucky enough to avoid plenty of other injured players during the season.

At what stage did you think you might be a chance to win it?

For the entire 2nd half of the season I was probably ranked inside the top 50 and was just climbing on average about 5 spots per week. I was super stoked to be ranked so highly but never thought it would be possible to actually win it until the last 4 weeks when I was ranked in the top 5 or so and scoring was very tight at the top. Heading into the last round I was 2nd overall and I think about 50 points behind.

What was the feeling like watching games in round 23, and when did you think you had it in the bag?

I never thought it was in the bag!

Oh my god, what a weekend! It was a stressful lead up to the final round when I was trying to finalise my last 2 trades of the season to make the winning move to come from 2nd overall to try and win it. I made a very late Friday night trade to bring in Jordan Lewis who pumped out about a 150 from memory. Every game was stressful watching my players, from having quiet quarters to bouncing back the next with a big one. I also like most other coaches had the red hot Tom Rockliff as captain who was a late withdrawal which had me scrambling trying to remember who was my vice, enter Toby Greene the saviour of my season in the very last game of the season. Toby Greene will forever be held in high regard after dragging my team the Mighty Midgets over the line to win the 2014 Fantasy season. Toby may also be granted with an automatic start in my 2015 side after his impressive finish to 2014.

And also all this while being heavily pregnant!

How many hours research were you putting in per week?

It’s hard to put a number on how many hours a week went into it. At a guess I’d say 1-2 hours of research a week with the majority of that time being spent on Thursday team selections and Friday team finalisations. I love my AFL so I normally catch most of the games over the weekend while keeping track of my Fantasy team and cheering on my players.

What do you look for when watching players during the NAB Challenge games?

There’s a few things I keep an eye on during the NAB: Keeping an eye on players who have changed teams over the summer who may now get greater opportunities at their new club. Players changing positions which could increase/decrease their scoring ability and just keep a good view of all the youngsters coming through and judging who is most likely to crack some games in the early going of the season.

What starting strategy do you think will work best in 2015?

I seem to find strategies change from year to year depending on where the good value players seem to be positioned. I normally like the Guns + Rookies strategy but i think there will be a greater need for more mid pricers in players starting teams this season.

Are there any smokeys on your radar?

There is always smokeys on my radar! The hard part is deciding how many smokeys and exactly which ones. A couple in the forward line I’m looking into this season are: Lachie Hunter and Sharrod Wellingham

Who will be your first picked DEF, MID, RUC and FWD?

Geez thats tough, I’ll have to go with:

Defender - Michael Hibberd

Midfielder- Gary Ablett

Ruck- Sam Jacobs

Forward- Dane Swan

What is your favourite DT TALK article?

I can’t choose between Calvins Captains and Jeppa’s Juniors but while I also have the chance I’d like to say what a wonderful job all the guys at DT TALK do for the fantasy football lovers.

Thanks Bec for your time. Congratulations and good luck in going back-to-back!

]]>http://dreamteamtalk.com/2015/02/26/interview-with-bec-wilson-the-2014-afl-fantasy-champion/feed/10My Team 2015: Version 3.0http://dreamteamtalk.com/2015/02/26/my-team-2015-version-3-0/
http://dreamteamtalk.com/2015/02/26/my-team-2015-version-3-0/#commentsWed, 25 Feb 2015 19:00:56 +0000http://dreamteamtalk.com/?p=34658Woohoo! The NAB Challenge is here and our fantasy study now ramps up. Let’s hit up version 3.0 of the My Team post. The others have been going gangbusters, so pump out your teams and thoughts in the comments.

Head on over the www.dtlive.com.au and use the Drawing Board to put together your AFL Fantasy Classic, AFL Dream Team (RDT) or SuperCoach team using the no official prices and positions for this year.

It’s free and easy to sign up and the site will continue to evolve over the pre-season.

Post your teams (via the simple copy and paste on the Drawing Board) in the comments and discuss your fantasy pre-season. Be constructive and as always, give and get! The Deck of DT has been awesome so far and it will continue into mid-February! The games will officially launch over the next few weeks so make sure you’re prepared and chat it up in the comments.

Fisher Gathering Momentum

2008 All Australian, Sam Fisher, heads into the 2015 season after a full preseason, the first in a long time for the 32 year old. After Saturday’s intra-club match, Sam spoke to the media (LINK HERE).

“It was good to get a hit-out [on Saturday]. I’ve had a pretty good pre-season so far injury-wise, so it makes a bit of a difference when you get some consistency and continuity with your training and you go into the season feeling good and fit. I’ve obviously had a few troubles over the last couple of years but you do the work and preparation and therefore you can walk off the ground feeling pretty good. It’s hard to catch up if you miss chunks of foot – it just makes it so much harder to perform at your best and to maintain your match fitness. From a mental side of things I’m pretty fresh and haven’t had to back up each week mentally. I feel like a new draftee.”

Ben Says: The Saints #25 comes with the price tags of $414,000 in AFL Fantasy and $407,800 in Real DreamTeam, which has him set at an implied average of 72. Having played the 7 games last season at an average of 80, there is already a clear, yet minor upside to selecting Fisher. Importantly over the last 9 years, Sam’s only had two seasons below the 80 threshold. He clearly has the ability to average within the top bracket of backs for 2015. In a young side, Fisher will never be rested, to add further notes to the pro’s column. The unfortunate issue with Sam over the past three seasons has been his complete and utter lack of durability. After missing just 6 H&A games in 7 years, Sam has dropped to a mere 31 matches out of 66. That’s a little under 47% of the time! The quote is encouraging though, having completed his first preseason in a long time and seemingly feeling ‘like a new draftee’. At the end of the day it’s each individuals very own decision, but I would be reserving judgement to the preseason to see if the Fisher of old has returned.

Stevie J Still Battling for Round 1

Steve Johnson’s foot soreness has continued, leading Scott to detail the latest on the Cats star in a recent interview. Geelong start their preseason in Townsville against Gold Coast on Sunday (LINK HERE).

‘Cats coach Chris Scott said he would be reluctant to play Johnson against the Hawks on Easter Monday had the 31-year-old not played in one of the lead-up matches. Whether Johnson will be actually available for any of the Cats’ three NAB Challenge games will be determined in the next couple of weeks, Scott said.’ (written by Peter Ryan)

Ben Says:Whilst Steve was shaping up as a unique midfielder with the potential to average over 110, these latest comments put to bed the idea of starting the 2007 Norm Smith Medallist. At 31, it’s likely that Steve’s best years are behind him, but having averaged a herculean 118 from his 16 games in 2013, it’s clear he’s still in the conversation of elite fantasy mids. Interestingly, Scott mentioned that the Cats were a “little bit thin for experience” at times in the middle of the park. For the likes of Johnson and Bartel, this only sounds like positive news.

Pressure on for Billie to Shine

Chris Scott also spoke about young Cat Billie Smedts on Tuesday, declaring that the time is now to realise his potential (LINK HERE).

“The issue for Billie is not so much where he plays, it’s how well he plays. I am confident in his ability and if he gets somewhere near his potential then he should be in our best 22.

Ben Says: Billie Smedts finally has a chance to show exactly what he’s capable of, coming off a picture perfect preseason. After a broken leg cursed his 2014 campaign, Billie, now at the age of 22, is ready to step up. Having already played 33 matches in his AFL career, Billie clearly has some exposed form at the top level. In his best season (2013), Smedts averaged 54 over 13 games.This includes a NVA of 62, which would be a reasonable return for the former 15th draft pick in 2010. He’s expected to play as a rebounding half back flanker, a role regarded highly within the fantasy community. Priced at $177,000 in AFL Fantasy and $200,400 in Real DreamTeam, Smedts is a clear budget option that at this stage is likely to be owned by the masses.

Lynch Ready to Roll & Potential Rookie in the Midst

Ex-Saint Tom Lynch, spoke to the media on Tuesday, outlining how his preseason has gone and his expectations for the season ahead (LINK HERE).

“I’m 100 per cent fine. Last year was a little bit unfortunate and very disappointing in how it ended but as I said, I’m pumped that I got a full pre-season. I’ve moved on now and I’m lucky that the recovery was quick and it wasn’t too serious in the end. I’m looking forward to getting out there this weekend and launching into the year. I’ve always felt I’ve been challenged and that I’ve got to challenge others to get that spot – I’ve never really felt comfortable with my spot in the side.”

Also he had this to say on the Crows new draftee, Harrison Wigg.

“Just off the top of my head, those guys (Wigg and Ramsey) have been really impressive. [Wigg’s] a nice kick – I think he and ‘Jaenschy’ (Matthew Jaench) are into each other about who’s got a better kick. He’s very nice to lead to, I’ll tell you that.”

Ben Says: Tom Lynch appears to be an absolute bargain buy as the 2015 season looms. Priced at $327,000 and $347,100 in both AFL Fantasy and Real DreamTeam respectively, Tom’s implied average is no higher than 64 points per game. Lets put some context on this. In 2013, off 17 games, by far the most matches he’s managed in a season to this stage of his career, he averaged 87 points per game. Furthermore, after a poor preseason in 2014, Lynch produced a mere 21 points in a green vest performance. The very next week he played the full game and knocked out a triple figure score before getting concussed on ‘0’ a week later against the Demons. Having a closer look at his 2014 season, it’s clear that Tom can go big, posting scores of 165, 122, 103 and 122 with just 3 scores below 75. With the above quotes in mind, Lynch should be sky high on everyone’s radar. In regards to rookie rebounder Harrison Wigg, it’s clear that Lynch is pumping his tires a tad but this still must be interpreted as only positive for the youngsters chances. He averaged 18.8 disposals per game at a precise 79.3% effectiveness, just going to show his potential with his preferred left peg. If named early on, Wigg will undoubtedly prove to be of great value. Read more on him HERE in Jeppa’s article.

Demon Options Galore

The Melbourne Football Club played an intra-club practice match against Casey Fields on Thursday afternoon. Assistant coach, Jade Rawlings, spoke about how the list was tracking heading into the new campaign (LINK 1 HERE)(LINK 2 HERE).

“There’s a lot of talk about him (Hogan), he’s the most asked about player at our footy club but he’s a natural competitor and we’re happy with his progress so far. His hands were good, you can see he competes really hard, he’s a good player at ground level as well as in the air”

On Salem, Rawlings had this to say.

“His defence was good as well as his offence. There’s a bit of optimism there that he could be a nice player for us down (back).”

Furthermore…

‘Rawlings said Aaron Vandenberg, a rookie list player who had been competing for Ainslie Football Club in the ACT, may surprise fans this year after performing well in training during the off season.’ (Written by Larissa Nicolson of The Age)

Ben Says: Jesse Hogan arrives at the cheaply listed prices of $194,000 in AFL Fantasy and $138,900 in Real DreamTeam, making him a clear choice for a spot on our forward benches. As Rawlings states, the AFL community has high expectations on Jesse and with Dawes struggling for fitness and Hogan in solid form, Jesse will receive his first guernsey in Round 1. In the Under 18 champs two seasons prior, Jesse averaged 102 super coach points per match, elite for a key forward. It seems to be only a matter of time before Hogan is considered an elite forward within the top tier of Aussie Rules, so enjoy the cheap price whilst you can. Christian Salem is also shaping up as a very interesting option. The 9th pick in the 2013 draft, Salem played 12 games in his opening season which included 7 vests and 5 of those in the green colour. Given his price of $193,000 in AFL Fantasy and $192,800 in Real DreamTeam, Salem is still cheap enough to be considered within that lower bracket of fantasy forwards. Having averaged a mere 34 points, it’s simple enough to see that improvement is quite obvious and apparent. With this new role in defence, expect Salem to be entrusted with a decent level of the rebounding as Roos primarily attempts to teach him the defensive side of the game. Finally we come to rookie listed Aaron Vandenberg, who’ll be locked into all sides come Round 1 if his preseason form equals his previous exploits in the NEAFL. Last season, Vandenberg averaged 127 points per game across 18 matches. This included 32.4 touches a game, along with 4.6 marks, 6.2 tackles and just over a goal a game. The 23 year old is a clear ball magnet, and the only downside to his game just looking at the statistics, is his kicking efficiency ranks at just 52.2%. Nonetheless, Aaron has potential akin to Barlow at a similar stage in his career, nothing more needs to be said.