Ronaldo Souza $1.28 vs Ed Herman $4.15Potentially the most meaningful fight on the entire card with a mid-range UFC Middleweight against a former Strikeforce Champion. While other fighters will be fighting for a UFC contract Souza has a chance to get a win against an established member of his new division and start moving up the ranks before he even steps foot inside the Octagon. At the same time it is a dangerous fight because if he doesn’t beat Herman his stock will drop as a legit Middleweight contender. A win over a former SF champ for Herman would also be a huge boost, so to say the least the pressure is on. I am little shocked about these odds as I didn’t expect Short Fuse to be paying over $4.00, but as of writing this I do see that the majority of sites have started to bring him back down into the $3.00 range, but that is still a good deal. I have included Souza as one of my picks in the rotation system I talked about with the Preliminary Underdog picks because I feel he has he skills to match Herman on the feet and beat him on the ground. Ed makes some bad choices in the cage and I expect to see him clinching up and trying to take Souza down, instead of trying to brawl and or box him on where Jacare is less skilled. Souza doesn’t have a great return, so you can either parlay in the system I mentioned before or maybe a 3-way parlay with Marquardt and Mousasi. That combo won’t pay much more then $2.00, but it is a decent option compared to some of the other ones on the card. For Herman, a small single bet make sense especially at anything over $3.25. Herman is a tough out for anyone and should recognize the opportunity he has here (that is why he took the fight) so expect him to come out guns a blazing.

Anthony Smith/ Roger Gracie Total Rounds Under 2.5- This is one of those plays that allows you to take advantage of both fighters’ abilities to finish. If Gracie gets this fight to the ground a submission finish is a likelihood and if Smith is able to land a big shot we have already seen Roger crumpled to the ground in his only defeat. Take the Under.

Baltimore @ Denver -9.5
Denver comes into this game with a 10-6 record ATS this year and Manning is 0-3 in cold weather playoff games and this game is expect to be one. That being said, Baltimore is coming off of a very emotional win last weekend at home in Ray Lewis’s final game in Baltimore and in my opinion they are spent. This year teams coming off of emotional wins (I remember there being at least 4 times this happened); Indy over Green Bay after their coach was diagnosed with cancer and KC over Cleveland after the suicide of one of their players, got beaten badly the following week. Baltimore hasn’t been a good road team this year, with their only decent away victory coming over the Steelers and their secondary is a major concern against a quarter back with the abilities of Peyton Manning. Finally, Denver is a very good home team and should have some added swagger after going into Baltimore in week 15 and crushing the Ravens, leading the game at one point 31-3. Unless Denver allows a late back door cover they should dominate this game start to finish.