Already dozens of deaths due to airspace closure?

The ongoing closure of European airspace due to volcanic ash after the
Eyjafjallajökull eruption may already have claimed the lives of
dozens of travelers without a single plane being crashed. The problem
is that travelers are forced to seek alternative transportation,
which typically are less safe than flying.

At first sight the situation looks clear: closing airspace will save
lives as there will be no risk of planes crashing because of clogged
engines. However, the situation is much more complicated than that. As
flying by plane is one of the safest forms of
transportation,
closure of airspace endangers travelers' lives as they have to use
more risky alternatives. This is mostly overlooked as people tend to
be more afraid of plane crashes than of dying in a car accident. After
9/11 almost as many people have died by the increased use of cars in
fear of plane crashes as in the terrorist attacks
themselves. As Nassim Nicholas
Taleb calls it,
this is "focusing on the specific when you should focus on the
generalities".

Now let us find an estimate for the number of people that have already
lost their lives due to this. Of course, that is quite difficult to
calculate, but we can make some reasonable assumptions. First, German
rail operators have reported that there have been 30% more passengers
using long-distance trains in recent days. Let us assume that the rest
of Europe has similar numbers. According to EU mobility
statistics
people go by car three times more kilometers than by train. Now of
course for longer distance travel this will probably look different,
so lets assume that people are as likely to switch to cars as to
trains. Then, this 30% increase in train passengers leads to a 10%
increase in drivers on the roads. According to the same report, there
are about 40,000 deaths from car accidents a year in the EU, meaning
that each day 100 people die on the streets. True, not all of EU
airspace is closed, but there are also non-EU countries affected. You
might also argue that these additional travelers mostly use
motorways, which tends to be safer by a factor two to
four;
however, this is probably compensated by the fact that travelers now
having to take the road are more fatigue due to the length of the
trip. Now a 10% in traffic translates into approximately 10
additional deaths in car accidents, meaning that we can expect that
dozens of people already have died as a consequence of the closed
airspace.

Of course, the real threat of volcanic ash to air safety is difficult
to assess quantitatively, leaving you with little to compare
with. However, stating that closing airspace is a no-brainer if you
are concerned about transportation safety is simply wrong. And in any
thorough risk assessment regulators must also weigh the risks of using
more dangerous alternatives than airline travel, meaning that such
large-scale bans have to be considered with great care.