Buninyong

Regional City

Marginal Labor 1.6%

MP

The sitting Labor MP for Ballarat East (now Buninyong) is Geoff Howard. He was first elected at the 1999 election.

Profile

A mixed rural-urban seat, the electorate of Buninyong covers the area to the west of Bacchus Marsh and generally south and east of Ballarat, though it intrudes into the southern parts of the Ballarat metropolitan area to include Sebastopol, Canadian, Ballarat East and other suburbs. Other major centres include Ballan, Buninyong, Mount Clear and Haddon. Covers 3,107 square kilometres. (Map)

Redistribution

As well as the name change from Ballarat East to Buninyong, the boundaries of this electorate have undergone major surgery. More than 12,000 voters to the north-east of Ballarat have been transferred to the re-drawn Macedon, including the major centres of Daylesford, Hepburn Springs and Kyneton, while Creswick has been transferred to Ripon. Into the electorate comes Sebastopol from Ballarat West, as well as Haddon and areas to the south-west of Ballarat from Ripon, and smaller areas from Polwarth and Melton in the east. Overall these changes balance out politically, the Labor margin for Buninyong being 1.6% compared to 1.5% for the old Ballarat East.

Background

The 2014 Victorian election will be the first since 1859 without an electorate containing the name Ballarat. The 2012-13 redistribution has split the city of Ballarat between electorates named after two of the city's outer suburbs, western Wendouree and southern Buninyong. The Ballarat electorates were named East and West 1859-1927, a single Ballarat electorate 1927-55, Ballarat North and South 1927-92 and Ballarat East and West again since 1992.

The electorate of Buninyong is the successor to Ballarat East and before that Ballarat South. Ballarat South was a Liberal seat from the 1955 Labor split until Labor returned to office in 1982. Won by Frank Sheahan in 1982, his was one of several regional seat victories by Labor that year. Sheahan was swept out by the electoral tide that defeated the Kirner government in 1992, but kept the swing against him down to only 1.1%, and came within 27 votes of winning the seat back at the 1996 election.

Again known as Ballarat East after 1992, this seat was held by the Liberal Party's Barry Traynor from 1992 until his defeat in 1999 by current Labor MP Geoff Howard. Labor's sweep of electorates in Ballarat and Bendigo in 1999 was responsible for Labor returning to office under Steve Bracks.

After becoming a safe Labor electorate in 2002 and 2006, a 5.1% swing to the Liberal Party returned this seat to its traditional marginal status in 2010.

Issues and Polls

Abortion blew up as an issue in the campaign, with National candidate Sonia Smith objecting to Liberal Candidate Ben Taylor's views on abortion. She has threatened not to recommend preferences for Taylor, though that would be against the National Party's recommendation. The row probably weakens further Liberal chances of winning the seat.

Opinion Polls

The Herald-Sun published a poll on 16 November showing a solid Labor lead in Buninyong. The poll of 527 respondents conducted by Galaxy revealed first preferences of Labor 40% (down 0.9 percentage points), Liberal 37% (-5.5), National 6% (+6) and Greens 13% (+1.7). This converted into a Labor two-party preferred lead of 54% to 46%, a swing to Labor of 2.4 percentage points..

Changing Electoral Boundaries

Past Results

Over the last two decades the electorate covering eastern and southern Ballarat has consistently polled a stronger Labor 2-party preferred vote than Victoria as a whole. This suggests there would have to be a state wide swing against Labor to give the Liberal Party a chance of winning the seat, especially with Labor's sitting MP Geoff Howard having represented the seat since 1999.

Assessment

Likely Labor retain.

2014 Ballot Paper (6 Candidates)

Candidate Name

Party

SMITH, Sonia

The Nationals

TAYLOR, Ben

Liberal

GEYER, Keith

Family First

KEAYS, James Donovan

Australian Country Alliance

GOODFELLOW, Tony

Australian Greens

HOWARD, Geoff

Australian Labor Party

Candidates

Sonia Smith

The Nationals

Smith practices law in Ballarat and runs a small farm with her husband at Navigators. She grew up on a family farm in Patchewollock in the Mallee, completed secondary education at Ballarat and Clarendon College, graduated in law at Melbourne University and has a Masters in International Relations from Geneva, Switzerland. During her career Smith has worked in a community law firm and has a decade of experience working with the United Nations in the area of international law and development. She returned home to take a position with a local legal firm.

Ben Taylor

Liberal

After completing High School, Taylor attended the Ballarat School of Mines, completing a Certificate in Electronics and an Associate Diploma in Computer Systems. He has since gone on to complete an Advanced Diploma of Business Management from the University of Ballarat. While studying and since graduating, Taylor has worked in local Ballarat businesses. For four years he was a client relations manager with the University of Ballarat and for the past five years sales manager for local company Southern Cross Business Machines. Taylor has served on the City of Ballarat council since 2008-12 and served a period as Deputy Mayor. He was the Liberal candidate for Ballarat East at the 2010 state election.

Tony Goodfellow

Australian Greens

Goodfellow has an Honours Degree in Social Science from the University of Tasmania. He spent two and a half years in the remote community of Wadeye in the Northern Territory assisting with media related to health, education, culture, music, employment, environment, entertainment and history as well as helping the rangers set up a native bee farm. He's worked variously as an actor, researcher and bee keeper.

Geoff Howard

Australian Labor Party

58 year-old Howard was born in Geelong and completed Agricultural Science and Teaching degrees before moving to Ballarat in 1983, where he taught for 14 years. He resigned in 1997 to work as a part-time electorate officer on the staff of John Brumby. He served on Ballarat City Council for 4 years, being elected Mayor in 1993, and following the council amalgamations, was re-elected to the expended City of Ballarat in 1996. Howard won Ballarat East at the 1999 election with a 3.7% swing, defeating two-term Liberal MP Barry Traynor. Howard had previously contested Ballarat Province at the 1992 election. Howard became a father for the first time the day before the 2002 state election was called. He served as a Parliamentary Secretary between 1999 and 2006.