Thursday, January 14, 2010

Markets Struggle Against Tide of Retail and Unemployment Numbers

The S&P 500 was slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1123.34 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 1155.15 is the next upside target.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 1142.42

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1147.90 Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 1155.15

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1134.30 Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1123.34

The NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1859.63 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews this winter's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1947.00 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1900.00 Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1947.00

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1859.63 Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1850.00

The U.S. Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.86 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.56 Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.86

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 76.74 Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November December rally crossing at 76.66