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According to Bill Emmott, Silvio Berlusconi is a leader who always bounces back, despite removal from office or fall from grace during the past 25 years. He is once again at the centre of Italian politics, and in March his "bunga bunga" party could make a comeback. In 2011 he resigned after the parliament voted for austerity measures in the midst of an acute debt crisis, that engulfed the eurozone. But the disgraced leader of the Forza Italia party still remains the most influential politician on the center-right. After sex scandals and an open-heart surgery in 2016 the former three-time prime minister has not lost his appetite for power, but Berlusconi is not allowed to run for a fourth term. In 2013 he was given a four-year sentence after being convcted of tax fraud, but it was reduced to one year under a 2006 pardon act. In 2014 he was ordered to perform community service in a care home for elderly, because the Italian legal system was lenient to the septuagenarian. He is seeking to overturn a ban that bars him from public office ahead of the spring 2018 vote. The European Court of Human Rights is set to review his case later this year.Last November Berlusconi backed a candidate who won the regional election in Sicily, corralling a coalition of centre-right parties into first place, ahead of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and the ruling centre-left Democratic Party (PD). With the argument "We are the only alternative" he seeks to win big in March. Like Berlusconi, Beppe Grillo, the raucous comedian and founder of the M5S will not run for office, because his party bans political candidates who have a criminal record (he was convicted of manslaughter in 1985 following a car accident). The author says "Berlusconi's role in forming the next government might actually represent stability in the face of a populist insurgency." Italy has had more governments than any other major EU country since World War II, and only one government had lasted the full five-year term since 1945 - it was led by Berlusconi between June 2001 - May 2006. The country has been plagued by a stagnating economy, corruption, organised crime, political apathy, and high youth unemployment for years. This gave rise to populism and anti-EU sentiment. Ahead of the upcoming election the ruling centre-left PD under prime minister Paolo Gentiloni faces a strong challenge from the anti-EU Five Star Movement and right-wing Forza Italia, that want tougher measures to curb immigration, mostly from sub-Saharan Africa, which is a major issue. Italy has had the largest influx of asylum seekers in the EU last year. Gentiloni is the third prime minister to have served in the outgoing legislature, elected in 2013. He warned against "any sharp or painful interruptions at a very delicate time" for the Italian economy, which is picking up, with "a million jobs restored, most of them long-term ones". His party's most energetic figure, Matteo Renzi - resigned as prime minister in 2016 - is planning a comeback. The centre-right that coalesces around Berlusconi's Forza Italia and the right-wing parties Northern League and Brothers of Italy feel that they have the momentum, taking advantage of voters' anger over the influx of refugees and migrants, and "the public’s fear of M5S’s disruptive potential." The author says the "wind is at their backs." But the coalition will have a tricky task, if it has as its "main partner the separatist, anti-immigrant, and Euroskeptic" Northern League, whose "energetic and ambitious" leader, Matteo Salvini "has his own eye on the center-right leadership."As Berlusconi is the most experienced of the whole lot, he will insist on having his say. Besides his Forza Italia polls higher than the Northern League. It remains to be seen whether his centre-right coalition manages to beat the PD, and whether the popularity surge that M5S enjoys will translate into electoral victory. In the face of rising populism, the author says Berlusconi could "end up being Italy’s political savior." Despite his close ties with Vladimir Putin, Berlusconi will back a pro-Europe agenda of more common defence, foreign, industrial and fiscal policies, as well as continued membership in the Eurozone.

Bill, can you imagine the effect of a duet Berlusconi / Trump? If this ever happens, 2018 shall see the reincarnation of Galligula ....and all roads shall lead to Rome.......for a piece of the action..

True: in Italy there are already many articles that say that Emmott has "backed" on Berlusconi and now presents him as a savior of the country! It would be good for Emmott to clarify that his judgment on Berlusconi (unfit to lead, clown-man, populist-maker, etc.) has NOT changed!