Publication year

Geopolitical risks have risen, but markets appear unperturbed. We develop a new index of geopolitical risk and use it to show that most bond and equity markets are just as responsive to such risks as in the past.

The Dutch economy is performing well. Simultaneously, the impact of a geopolitical shock in the Middle East or Asia could be substantial. The risk of such an event can also affect growth; current economic growth could have been a half percent higher.