United States

Report | Economic insight for December 13, 2017

Summary

​Gains in November
exceeded expectations and the recent trend. However, the long-term trend shows
job growth continues to decline over time as labor scarcity intensifies.
Barring some unlikely surge in job creation in last few weeks of this year, job
growth will decline for the third consecutive year in 2017. And wage growth has
yet to materialize, stymied by weak productivity growth and low inflation. If
both firm up as anticipated and the labor market tightens further, wage growth
could accelerate in 2018 and finally break the 3 percent threshold for the
first time since before the recession. Nothing in the employment report will
not prevent the Fed from hiking interest rates this week, bringing the total
number of rate hikes in 2017 to three despite tame inflation throughout most of
the year. Meanwhile, Congress will work to reconcile the differing drafts of
tax reform. But the ultimate bill should stimulate the economy in 2018. That is
all good news for the major CRE property types. ​