LOUISVILLE – In a business where patience is part of the process, Kentucky bourbon makers are making a big bet by stashing away their largest stockpiles in more than a generation.

The production poses an inherent risk, but hitting the moment right – a big supply meshing with big demand – could mean a serious payday for companies big and small. Missing the target would leave bourbon makers awash with supply and leave future production in question, particularly for craft distilleries that have seen a surge in popularity.

“People keep asking us, ‘When will the bubble burst?’” said Eric Gregory, president of the Kentucky Distillers’ Association. For most in the business, the answer is not anytime soon.

Large companies are banking on continued international demand from places such as China and a culture in the U.S. that currently has a taste for bourbon, which has to be aged at least two years in new charred oak barrels.

Production has surged by more than 150 percent in the past 15 years in Kentucky – home to 95 percent of the world’s bourbon production. Last year, Kentucky distilleries filled 1.2 million barrels of bourbon – the most since 1970, according to the Kentucky Distillers’ Association. Inventory has topped 5 million barrels for the first time since 1977, the group said.

The last time the industry spiked production in the 1970s, distillers ended up with a glut when demand went in a tailspin. Back then, the industry had grown stale, and many consumers switched allegiance to vodka, Scotch and other spirits. Now, distillers are constantly dabbling with premium small-batch offerings or putting new twists on recipes and flavors and companies are looking to real-time data from the digital world.

Sales trends and developments are tracked in markets worldwide. The numbers are crunched to make the best educated estimate of future consumer demand for a product that takes years to mature.

Straight bourbon whiskey ages a minimum of two years, though the average maturity is four years or longer. Many popular super-premium brands age six years or more, which are the toughest to stock in bars, restaurants and liquor stores.

Expansions have occurred at Jim Beam, Evan Williams, Wild Turkey, Maker’s Mark, Buffalo Trace and Woodford Reserve. Global liquor giant Diageo PLC recently announced plans to build a new distillery in Kentucky. Microdistilleries are getting a foothold in the state, including New Riff Distilling in Newport. In Cincinnati, Queen City Whiskey recently started producing small batch bourbon and rye whiskeys named after local bootlegger George Remus.

In the U.S., total revenues for bourbon and Tennessee whiskey (produced the same way with similar ingredients) reached $2.4 billion last year, a 10.2 percent increase, according to the Distilled Spirits Council. Volume was up nearly 7 percent to 18 million cases. The spirits claimed 34 percent of the U.S. whiskey market in 2013, putting it ahead of Canadian, Scotch, blended and Irish whiskeys. ■