An indepth look at weather and climate by South Carolina's Weatherman Jim Gandy.

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Cherrypicking & Misleading

I
am frequently disappointed when I read articles or editorials claiming that
human-caused warming of the planet is not happening or that climate science is
wrong. Such disappointment occurred
recently as I read an editorial from Investor’s Business Daily (IBD).

The
national newspaper covers international business, finance, and the global
economy. Its editorials are by its own
admission conservative. I use the paper
for the detailed information on companies and have used it for over two
decades. It is a good source for
financial information, but a poor source for science information.

An
online editorial entitled “Facts Get In The Way-Again-Of A Good Global Warming
Story” can be viewed here. The editorial
is meant to criticize a recent trip by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The editorial begins “Hillary Clinton made a
well-publicized trip last week to the Arctic to see for herself the impact of
global warming. Less well known, however, are two reports that contradict the
climate-change alarmists.”

Image Credit: NASA Goddard's Scientific Visualization Studio.

“First,
polar ice is now the heaviest "in more than a decade," reports the
Los Angeles Times.” Later it refers to another report “Second, photos taken in
the 1930s by Danish explorers "show glaciers in Greenland retreating
faster than they are today, according to researchers," tech publication
The Register reported.

I
long ago learned to be highly skeptical of any claim by IBD. The first red flag is that they are quoting
other media sources and not the science research itself. Fortunately I was able to track down both
reports. It turns out that the
information is cherrypicked and misleading.

The
Los Angeles Times article here is referring to the
ice pack along the north coast of Alaska.
Indeed Alaska just experienced one of its coldest winters on record and
there was an above normal amount of ice due to the cold winter and winds piling
the ice along the coast. However, we are
talking about ice that it one to two years old, not the very old ice normally
referred to as multi-year ice. This ice
may take a week or two longer to melt this year.

Image Credit: NSIDC,

Furthermore,
the editorial implies that the situation on the north coast of Alaska is like
that throughout the Arctic and that is not the case. In fact the National Snow and Ice Data Center
just released the ice extent for May. It
shows that the extent is more than last year, but less than in 2010 and
2009. This is hardly the heaviest in
more than a decade.

Now
ice extent is not the same as ice volume and maybe that is the reference. The Polar Science Center tracks the ice
volume in the Arctic and the polar ice volume was at a record low last
year. It continues to decline and is
currently lower than at the same time in 2011.
The data indicates that this year could be another record low in ice
volume for the Arctic.

Click on the image for a larger view. Image Credit: PIOMAS.

The
second report refers to photos taken in the 1930s by Danish explorers. Instead of quoting from the actual science
research, IBD referenced a British technology news and opinion website. The editorial writes: "It now appears
that the glaciers were retreating even faster 80 years ago" when man's
carbon output was far less than today's, "but nobody worried about it, and
the ice subsequently came back again."

There
are two problems with the above statement.
First it implies that the glacial retreat is not tied to an increase in
increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Secondly, it states that the ice came back in the intervening period.

The
actual science article was published two weeks ago in the prestigious journal
Nature Geoscience. Here is the abstract
from that article:

Widespread
retreat of glaciers has been observed along the southeastern margin of
Greenland. This retreat has been
associated with increased air and ocean temperatures. However, most
observations are from the satellite era; presatellite observations of
Greenlandic glaciers are rare. Here we present a unique record that documents
the frontal positions for 132 southeast Greenlandic glaciers from rediscovered
historical aerial imagery beginning in the early 1930s. We combine the
historical aerial images with both early and modern satellite imagery to
extract frontal variations of marine- and land-terminating outlet glaciers, as
well as local glaciers and ice caps, over the past 80 years. The images reveal
a regional response to external forcing regardless of glacier type, terminal
environment and size. Furthermore, the recent retreat was matched in its vigour during a period of
warming in the 1930s with comparable increases in air temperature. We show that
many land-terminating glaciers underwent a more rapid retreat in the 1930s than
in the 2000s, whereas marine-terminating glaciers retreated more rapidly during
the recent warming.

What
the scientists found was that there was a comparable increase in the region temperatures
during the 1930s matching the most recent time.
Both periods produced substantial glacial retreats. However, it is NOT true that the ice subsequently came back again. In fact during the cooling period from the
1950s to 1970s only 60% of the glaciers advanced, but did not return to their
former positions. Furthermore, the
marine-terminating glaciers are the ones directly impacting sea-level rise and
they are retreating faster now than in the 1930s.

It
is important to realize that there has been a general warming of the planet
since the beginning of the Industrial Age.
However, this can be divided into two periods from about the 1840s to
1940s and from the late 1970s to the current time. The intervening period was marked by a slight
cooling. The first warming period was closely
tied to solar activity. However, the
most recent warming period is not from solar activity, but from the rapid
increase in greenhouse gases.

If
IBD wants to criticize Hillary Clinton, I’m sure she can handle it. They say “We prefer to deal in facts…” however,
to grossly distort the science to fit their point of view is shameful. If they want to use science to make a point,
they have to do it correctly.
Cherrypicking and misleading are not the correct way.

About Me

A professional meteorologist for over 37 years, Jim Gandy is the chief meteorologist at WLTX-TV (CBS affiliate) in Columbia, SC. He has held that position since 1999.
Jim is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and has a number of awards and recognitions for his work over the years. He is best known for his forecast of Hurricane Hugo in 1989 and his work during the tornado outbreak in South Carolina in 1994.
Jim continues to study weather and is interested in climate change which he has studied since 2005. Looking for better ways to communicate climate change, he is working with the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University and with Climate Central.
Jim recently began working with the Helmuth Lab at the University of South Carolina. Dr. Brian Helmuth is working in the area of the effects of climate change on the ecology.
All of these subjects are of vital interest to South Carolina.