State Preview: Oregon

In
the weeks leading up to the draft, Perfect Game will be providing a
detailed overview of each state in the U.S., including the District
of Columbia, as well as Canada and Puerto Rico. These overviews will
list the state's strengths, weaknesses and the players with the best
tools, as well as providing scouting reports on all Group 1 and 2
players as ranked in Perfect Game's state-by-state scouting lists.

Contributing:
David RawnsleyOregon State-by-State List2011 Oregon Overview
Oregon
Overview:Oregon,
Oregon State Monopolize In-State Draft TalentConsidering
that Oregon State won consecutive College World Series championships
in 2006 and 2007, and Oregon didn’t even have an intercollegiate
baseball program at the time, the Ducks have made huge strides in
closing the gap on their arch, in-state rival since re-establishing
baseball effective with the 2009 season.
Discounting
a predictably rough start-up season, Oregon has matched, and even
exceeded Oregon State’s success, both on the field and in the
draft, over the last three years. Entering the final weekend of
Pacific-12 Conference play, Oregon is 111-64 over the last two-plus
years, including 43-38 in conference play. The Beavers are 103-58
overall and 42-36 over a corresponding period.
Both
the Ducks and Beavers had eight players apiece drafted in 2011, and
are expected to fight tooth and nail to produce the larger tally this
time around. It’s probable, though, that Oregon will produce the
highest pick among the two schools for the third time in four years.
Initially, the Ducks’ top projected selection was expected to be
junior lefthander Christian Jones, but he was lost for the season
before it even started when he underwent Tommy John surgery in
February. But in the true spirit of keeping up with the Joneses,
Oregon’s candidate now to go off the draft board first is its
sophomore-eligible catcher/outfielder Aaron Jones.
Ducks
lefthander Tyler Anderson was the first player from Oregon drafted in
2011, going 20th overall to the Colorado Rockies. Jones (Aaron, that is) won't go that
high, and is more likely to go in the third to fifth rounds. While
this year appears to lack a high-end college talent, both of the next
two years promise to be very lucrative as both Oregon and Oregon
State are deep in promising underclassmen.
Without
a premium college talent this year, the first in-state selection will
come from the high-school ranks. Westview High third
baseman/righthander Carson Kelly is a near-lock to be the top pick,
likely as early as the sandwich round, but possibly late in the first
round. Scouts, however, are pretty much split on whether to draft
Kelly as a pitcher or position player. Coincidentally, scouts are
equally undecided on the future position of the state’s No.
2-ranked prep prospect, Roseburg High catcher/righthander Josh
Graham. Both Kelly and Graham are Oregon recruits.Oregon
in a nutshell:
STRENGTH:
Premium high-school talent.WEAKNESS:
High-end college prospects.OVERALL
RATING
(1-to-5 scale): 3.BEST
COLLEGE TEAM:
Oregon.BEST
JUNIOR-COLLEGE TEAM:
Mt. Hood.BEST
HIGH SCHOOL TEAM:
Roseburg HS.PROSPECT
ON THE RISE: Aaron Jones, c/of, University of Oregon.
Despite his two-year role as a backup for the Ducks, the
sophomore-eligible Jones (normally the team’s right fielder) is in
growing demand as a catcher in this year’s draft. In spot duty
behind the plate, Jones has displayed sound athletic actions and
above-average arm strength, and would be an offensive-oriented
catcher with his combination of speed and raw power.WILD
CARD: Christian Jones, lhp, University of Oregon. Jones
had designs on being drafted as early as the first round this year,
but before the season even started a diagnosis in early February to
get to the bottom of elbow pain stemming back to last fall revealed a
torn ulnar collateral ligament, necessitating Tommy John surgery. A
team could still take a run at him in an early-to-mid round.BEST
OUT-OF-STATE PROSPECT, Oregon Connection:
Tyler Spencer, rhp, Community College of Western Nevada (Attended
high school in Grants Pass).Top
2013 Prospect:
Ben Wetzler, lhp, Oregon State.Top2014
Prospect:
Jace Fry, lhp, Oregon State.HIGHEST
DRAFT PICKS
Draft
History:
Dave Roberts, 3b, University of Oregon (1972, Padres/1st round, 1st pick).2006
Draft: Dallas
Buck, rhp, Oregon State University (Diamondbacks/3rd round).2007
Draft: Eddie
Kunz, rhp, Oregon State University (Mets/1st round, 42nd pick).2008
Draft: Ty
Morrison, of, Tigard HS (Rays/4th round).2009
Draft: Erik
Stavert, rhp, University of Oregon (Rockies/7th round).2010
Draft: Tyler
Waldron, rhp, Oregon State University (Pirates/5th round).2011
Draft: Tyler
Anderson, lhp, University of Oregon (Rockies/1st round, 20th pick).2011
DRAFT OVERVIEW
College
Players Drafted/Signed:
19/17.Junior
College Players Drafted/Signed:
0/0.High
School Players Drafted/Signed:
3/0.BEST
TOOLS
Best
Athlete: Aaron
Jones, c/of, University of Oregon.Best
Hitter:
Carson Kelly, 3b/rhp, Westview HS, Portland.Best
Power:
Aaron Jones, c/of, University of Oregon.Best
Speed:
Vernell Warren, of, University of Oregon.Best
Defender:
J.J. Altobelli, ss, University of Oregon.Best
Velocity:
Christian Jones, lhp, University of Oregon.Best
Breaking Stuff:
Matt Boyd, lhp, Oregon State University.Best
Pitchability: Alex
Keudell, rhp, University of Oregon.TOP
PROSPECTS, GROUPS ONE and TWO
GROUP ONE (Projected
ELITE-Round Draft / Rounds 1-3)1.
CARSON KELLY, 3b/rhp, Westview HS, PortlandKelly
might be the most “pure” two-way prospect in the 2012 draft as he
has legitimate early-round draft interest as both a hard-hitting
third baseman and power-armed righthanded pitcher. As a high-school
junior, he hit .473-14-51 and went 9-1, 1.64 on the mound. He also
played a prominent two-way role last fall for USA Baseball’s
gold-medal-winning junior-national team, hitting .286-0-4 when
playing third base and compiling a 2-0, 1.29 record in 14 innings on
the mound. Kelly is more than capable of playing both positions in
college at Oregon. Scouts, on the other hand, are not unanimous in
their assessment of the 6-foot-2, 215-pounder’s future role, but
generally prefer him as an everyday player—the role he prefers.
Kelly’s bat is his best tool. He is a rhythm hitter with good load
and coil in his set-up, and nice flow through the ball. He generates
solid bat speed and can drive balls to the alleys as well as he pulls
them with a pronounced lift in his swing. He also has shown early
signs that he can command the strike zone at the plate. On the
defensive side of the ball, Kelly has played mostly shortstop this
spring, but is an outstanding third base prospect with quick and
agile feet, and an above-average throwing arm. As a pitching
prospect, Kelly doesn’t attract attention just because he throws
hard. While very consistent in the 90-92 mph range, he comes from a
low-effort, athletic delivery that enables him to pound the strike
zone with all his pitches, with good movement. His best secondary
pitch is an 80-mph slider with good break and two-plane shape, and he
also throws a changeup.

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