Nuclear weaponshttp://www.thejc.com/news/topics/nuclear-weapons
The taxonomy view with a depth of 0.enWhat evidence? Guardian presents dodgy dossier on Iran's bomb projecthttp://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/130612/what-evidence-guardian-presents-dodgy-dossier-irans-bomb-project
<p>The Guardian and al Jazeera were handed another treasure trove of leaked intelligence files this week, purportedly from a South African intelligence source. The documents include dossiers allegedly supplied by Mossad to its South African counterpart.</p>
<p>One purported Mossad analysis from October 2012 assesses Iran's nuclear progress and, according to the Guardian report, signed by Seumas Milne, Ewen MacAskill and Al-Jazeera's Clayton Swisher, it "starkly" contradicts Israel's Prime Minister, Benyamin Netanyahu, and his September 2012 UN Speech. </p>
<p>Famously, Mr Netanyahu showed the UN a graphic image of Iran's progress towards a nuclear bomb and warned the world that the Islamic Republic was a year away from having enough enriched uranium to produce its first nuclear weapon.</p>
<p>Questions of authenticity aside, it is hard to see where the contradiction is. Mr Netanyahu's speech made it clear that, had Iran's stockpile of 20 per cent enriched uranium crossed the 250 kg threshold, Iran would be technically within months of acquiring nuclear weapons. </p>
<p>The report speaks openly of a reconstituted military programme and assesses the technical hurdles facing Iran and progress it was making towards creating weapons-grade fissile material. It also notes that the Iranians had begun to divert parts of the 20 per cent enriched uranium to fuel production - which may only<br />
suggest they heeded Mr Netanyahu's red line and chose not to test Israel's resolve. </p>
<p>That things panned out differently since then has more to do with Iran's realisation that America's red lines, unlike Israel's, are not serious; and the fact that the concessions granted to Iran on 20 per cent enriched uranium under the current terms of the nuclear interim agreement are reversible.</p>
<p>At a time when negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme are reaching a critical stage, it is only natural for journalists to jump to conclusions, especially if those conclusions fit their worldview and their papers' editorial line. Still, one should be suspicious of this type of analysis. </p>
<p>This is first and foremost due to the lack of hard evidence in the document about any discrepancy between Mr Netanyahu's public messaging and his secret service's assessments. </p>
<p>The purported Mossad file, after all, is pretty clear about the existence of a clandestine military programme and Iran's desire to have that programme up to speed if "a political decision" were to be made to produce nuclear weapons.</p>
<p>Mr Netanyahu's main source of information for his public assessments of Iran's nuclear threat is the same Mossad that purportedly provided the briefing now in the Guardian's possession. </p>
<p>If a clash had indeed occurred, one would need to find the evidence somewhere, but the briefing offers none. Mr Netanyahu never removed his supposedly fierce critic, Meir Dagan, from the Mossad's directorate; and Mr Dagan's successor, Tamir Pardo, was very much of the same mind as his predecessor. </p>
<p>It is hard to imagine a clash, given that. The only available evidence is in a couple of bonkers stories and nothing more.</p>
<p>Finally, the briefing was for an intelligence service of a country, South Africa, whose commercial and diplomatic posture vis-à-vis Iran suggests the Israelis would be very guarded about sharing more than the minimum required by politeness and intelligence etiquette. Unsurprisingly, the document reflects information that already exists, for the most part, in the public domain.</p>AnalysisIranNuclear weaponsJournalism130612storyhttp://www.thejc.com/files/images/26022015-GettyImages-94984711.jpg

Iran test fires missiles

Emanuele Ottolenghi is a Senior
Fellow at the Foundation for Defence
of Democracies
The Guardian and al Jazeera were handed another treasure trove of leaked intelligence files this week, purportedly from a South African intelligence source. The documents include dossiers allegedly supplied by Mossad to its South African counterpart.
One purported Mossad analysis from October 2012 assesses Iran's nuclear progress and, according to the Guardian report, signed by Seumas Milne, Ewen MacAskill and Al-Jazeera's Clayton Swisher, it "starkly" contradicts Israel's Prime Minister, Benyamin Netanyahu, and his September 2012 UN Speech.
Famously, Mr Netanyahu showed the UN a graphic image of Iran's progress towards a nuclear bomb and warned the world that the Islamic Republic was a year away from having enough enriched uranium to produce its first nuclear weapon.
Questions of authenticity aside, it is hard to see where the contradiction is. Mr Netanyahu's speech made it clear that, had Iran's stockpile of 20 per cent enriched uranium crossed the 250 kg threshold, Iran would be technically within months of acquiring nuclear weapons.
The report speaks openly of a reconstituted military programme and assesses the technical hurdles facing Iran and progress it was making towards creating weapons-grade fissile material. It also notes that the Iranians had begun to divert parts of the 20 per cent enriched uranium to fuel production - which may only
suggest they heeded Mr Netanyahu's red line and chose not to test Israel's resolve.
That things panned out differently since then has more to do with Iran's realisation that America's red lines, unlike Israel's, are not serious; and the fact that the concessions granted to Iran on 20 per cent enriched uranium under the current terms of the nuclear interim agreement are reversible.
At a time when negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme are reaching a critical stage, it is only natural for journalists to jump to conclusions, especially if those conclusions fit their worldview and their papers' editorial line. Still, one should be suspicious of this type of analysis.
This is first and foremost due to the lack of hard evidence in the document about any discrepancy between Mr Netanyahu's public messaging and his secret service's assessments.
The purported Mossad file, after all, is pretty clear about the existence of a clandestine military programme and Iran's desire to have that programme up to speed if "a political decision" were to be made to produce nuclear weapons.
Mr Netanyahu's main source of information for his public assessments of Iran's nuclear threat is the same Mossad that purportedly provided the briefing now in the Guardian's possession.
If a clash had indeed occurred, one would need to find the evidence somewhere, but the briefing offers none. Mr Netanyahu never removed his supposedly fierce critic, Meir Dagan, from the Mossad's directorate; and Mr Dagan's successor, Tamir Pardo, was very much of the same mind as his predecessor.
It is hard to imagine a clash, given that. The only available evidence is in a couple of bonkers stories and nothing more.
Finally, the briefing was for an intelligence service of a country, South Africa, whose commercial and diplomatic posture vis-à-vis Iran suggests the Israelis would be very guarded about sharing more than the minimum required by politeness and intelligence etiquette. Unsurprisingly, the document reflects information that already exists, for the most part, in the public domain.
Thu, 26 Feb 2015 12:35:57 +0000Emanuele Ottolenghi130612 at http://www.thejc.comNo Iran deal yet, insists UShttp://www.thejc.com/news/world-news/130611/no-iran-deal-yet-insists-us
<p>Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will address a joint session of the US Congress next week to warn against an impending deal on Iran's nuclear programme.</p>
<p>At the same time, US Secretary of State John Kerry will be in Geneva meeting the Iranians, perhaps putting the finishing touches on that very agreement.</p>
<p>While there are still significant gaps between the two sides, the deal that appears to taking shape will allow the Iranians to continue using 6,500 centrifuges for low-level uranium enrichment on condition that most of the enriched uranium is transferred to Russia. </p>
<p>The main differences that reportedly remain are over the length of time that restrictions should remain on Iran's nuclear activities and the schedule for the removal of economic sanctions. The sides are anxious to reach a framework agreement by the end of March. </p>
<p>On Tuesday, Mr Netanyahu said a US-Iranian deal "will allow Iran to become a nuclear threshold state". </p>
<p>The Obama administration, which has responded angrily to Mr Netanyahu's planned visit, ramped up its criticism this week. Mr Kerry said during a Congress hearing on Tuesday: "Anybody running around right now, jumping in to say, 'Well, we don't like the deal,' or this or that, doesn't know what the deal is. There is no deal yet." </p>
<p>A few hours later, National Security Adviser Susan Rice ratcheted up the tension, saying: "The invitation… [to Netanyahu] is not only unfortunate but it is also destructive of the fabric of the relationship."</p>
<p>Meanwhile, a report compiled by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which will be responsible for verifying any nuclear deal, was leaked on Sunday. </p>
<p>According to the report, Iran is not co-operating with an IAEA probe into "possible military dimensions" of its nuclear programme. While Iran has been consistently obstructive towards the IAEA, the nuclear watchdog confirmed that the Islamic Republic had been complying with the conditions of the interim deal, signed in December 2013, to freeze nuclear development in return for limited sanctions relief.</p>World newsNuclear weaponsIran130611story

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will address a joint session of the US Congress next week to warn against an impending deal on Iran's nuclear programme.
At the same time, US Secretary of State John Kerry will be in Geneva meeting the Iranians, perhaps putting the finishing touches on that very agreement.
While there are still significant gaps between the two sides, the deal that appears to taking shape will allow the Iranians to continue using 6,500 centrifuges for low-level uranium enrichment on condition that most of the enriched uranium is transferred to Russia.
The main differences that reportedly remain are over the length of time that restrictions should remain on Iran's nuclear activities and the schedule for the removal of economic sanctions. The sides are anxious to reach a framework agreement by the end of March.
On Tuesday, Mr Netanyahu said a US-Iranian deal "will allow Iran to become a nuclear threshold state".
The Obama administration, which has responded angrily to Mr Netanyahu's planned visit, ramped up its criticism this week. Mr Kerry said during a Congress hearing on Tuesday: "Anybody running around right now, jumping in to say, 'Well, we don't like the deal,' or this or that, doesn't know what the deal is. There is no deal yet."
A few hours later, National Security Adviser Susan Rice ratcheted up the tension, saying: "The invitation… [to Netanyahu] is not only unfortunate but it is also destructive of the fabric of the relationship."
Meanwhile, a report compiled by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which will be responsible for verifying any nuclear deal, was leaked on Sunday.
According to the report, Iran is not co-operating with an IAEA probe into "possible military dimensions" of its nuclear programme. While Iran has been consistently obstructive towards the IAEA, the nuclear watchdog confirmed that the Islamic Republic had been complying with the conditions of the interim deal, signed in December 2013, to freeze nuclear development in return for limited sanctions relief.
Thu, 26 Feb 2015 12:35:56 +0000Anshel Pfeffer130611 at http://www.thejc.com‘Syria building new nuclear reactor’ http://www.thejc.com/news/world-news/128086/syria-building-new-nuclear-reactor%E2%80%99
<p>Syria is reportedly building a secret nuclear facility with the help of Iran and North Korea.</p>
<p>According to German magazine Der Spiegel, the facility is located close to the Syria-Lebanon border and is believed to contain a nuclear reactor.</p>
<p>Der Spiegel said Iranian scientists had contributed to the construction of the site, and that "experts believe that the new nuclear facility could never have been built without North Korean know-how".</p>
<p>It added that Israel had been unaware of the facility’s existence.</p>
<p>The magazine cited western intelligence reports as the source for the information, claiming that it had obtained exclusive documents, satellite photos and phone calls intercepted by intelligence agencies.</p>
<p>It said that the Syrian regime had transferred to the new facility 8,000 fuel rods from its previous nuclear reactor in the north-eastern Deir Al-Zour region, which was destroyed in 2007 in what was alleged to be an Israeli air strike.</p>
<p>The publicaton also quoted an International Atomic Energy Agency report saying Syria "possesses up to 50 tonnes of natural uranium, enough material for three to five [nuclear] bombs once the enrichment procedure is completed."</p>
<p>But Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, denied that experts from his country were helping Syria build a reactor.</p>
<p>He described the allegations as "funny".</p>World newsNuclear weaponsSyria128086story

125936Iran nuclear deadline pushed back to July 2015125435Israel fears worst in Iran nuclear talks
Syria is reportedly building a secret nuclear facility with the help of Iran and North Korea.
According to German magazine Der Spiegel, the facility is located close to the Syria-Lebanon border and is believed to contain a nuclear reactor.
Der Spiegel said Iranian scientists had contributed to the construction of the site, and that "experts believe that the new nuclear facility could never have been built without North Korean know-how".
It added that Israel had been unaware of the facility’s existence.
The magazine cited western intelligence reports as the source for the information, claiming that it had obtained exclusive documents, satellite photos and phone calls intercepted by intelligence agencies.
It said that the Syrian regime had transferred to the new facility 8,000 fuel rods from its previous nuclear reactor in the north-eastern Deir Al-Zour region, which was destroyed in 2007 in what was alleged to be an Israeli air strike.
The publicaton also quoted an International Atomic Energy Agency report saying Syria "possesses up to 50 tonnes of natural uranium, enough material for three to five [nuclear] bombs once the enrichment procedure is completed."
But Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, denied that experts from his country were helping Syria build a reactor.
He described the allegations as "funny".
Mon, 12 Jan 2015 17:50:52 +0000128086 at http://www.thejc.comANALYSIS: Why the delay to the Iran deal weakens the Westhttp://www.thejc.com/news/world-news/126062/analysis-why-delay-iran-deal-weakens-west
<p>What can a few more months of negotiations achieve that 11 years, including the last 12 months of marathon talks, could not have done already?</p>
<p>It is a question that the leaders of the six world powers engaged in a decade-long standoff with Iran over Tehran's nuclear programme most likely chose not to address as their deadline of November 24, 2014 drew to a close. </p>
<p>In the end, they preferred to extend talks into the spring of 2015 in the hope of reaching a framework agreement that can then morph, by July 2015, into a comprehensive deal.</p>
<p>Whether they can reach that goal remains to be seen. A year of negotiations under the framework of the interim agreement signed in November 2013 has led to little or no concessions by Iran on the fundamentals of its nuclear weapons programme and it has forced the six world powers to blur their own red lines just to keep the talks from collapsing.</p>
<p>The world powers will no doubt protest that it just isn't so. But it is hard to believe them at this point. Behind the façade of optimism, one thing is clear. Those sticking points that constituted stumbling blocks in the past remain. Iran, despite six UN Security Council resolutions intimating a suspension of enrichment activities, can continue to enrich and will, in the future, have a right to enrich recognised. </p>
<p>It is also clear that Iran has hardly budged from its red lines. It will ultimately be able to retain an industrial-sized enrichment programme, including, potentially, a pathway to plutonium production. The clandestine military activities it conducted in the past will neither be addressed nor clarified. Iran's missile programme will be left unrestrained. Finally, any restriction on its future nuclear activities will likely be lifted by the end of a decade - a long time for a president whose term expires in two years but a blink of an eye for a revolutionary power with an imperial past and future aspiration of grandeur.</p>
<p>Now, with seven more months likely to be added to this charade, Iran will be kept at the negotiating table with the bribe of US$700m a month - as the interim agreement stipulates. Given what's already been conceded, the goal can only be a bad deal. Western leverage, already weakened by one year of sanctions relief, will further diminish. The pressure from the business communities in Europe and Asia to lift restrictions will mount. And reluctance by Western powers to enforce existing sanctions lest the Iranians walk out of talks will do the rest.</p>
<p>As if this were not enough, an extension means that for seven more months - and maybe longer - neither Europe nor the US will implement a thorough review of their policies in the Middle East. That this review is urgent should be obvious by the alarming rise of the Islamic State. An obvious step would be to reassess Western reluctance to take on Bashar al-Assad. But such a step is not in the cards for fear of antagonising Assad's patron - Iran.</p>
<p>A bad deal will emerge, eventually. What will follow, though, will neither be a thaw in relations nor a diplomatic solution. There will be a regional crisis, with Iran a nuclear threshold state in a region where America's moment has already peaked.</p>World newsIranNuclear weapons126062storyhttp://www.thejc.com/files/IranMissileTest_0.jpg

125435Israel fears worst in Iran nuclear talks125226Whatever their outcome, the talks with Iran are a well of diplomatic poison for IsraelEmanuele Ottolenghi is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies
What can a few more months of negotiations achieve that 11 years, including the last 12 months of marathon talks, could not have done already?
It is a question that the leaders of the six world powers engaged in a decade-long standoff with Iran over Tehran's nuclear programme most likely chose not to address as their deadline of November 24, 2014 drew to a close.
In the end, they preferred to extend talks into the spring of 2015 in the hope of reaching a framework agreement that can then morph, by July 2015, into a comprehensive deal.
Whether they can reach that goal remains to be seen. A year of negotiations under the framework of the interim agreement signed in November 2013 has led to little or no concessions by Iran on the fundamentals of its nuclear weapons programme and it has forced the six world powers to blur their own red lines just to keep the talks from collapsing.
The world powers will no doubt protest that it just isn't so. But it is hard to believe them at this point. Behind the façade of optimism, one thing is clear. Those sticking points that constituted stumbling blocks in the past remain. Iran, despite six UN Security Council resolutions intimating a suspension of enrichment activities, can continue to enrich and will, in the future, have a right to enrich recognised.
It is also clear that Iran has hardly budged from its red lines. It will ultimately be able to retain an industrial-sized enrichment programme, including, potentially, a pathway to plutonium production. The clandestine military activities it conducted in the past will neither be addressed nor clarified. Iran's missile programme will be left unrestrained. Finally, any restriction on its future nuclear activities will likely be lifted by the end of a decade - a long time for a president whose term expires in two years but a blink of an eye for a revolutionary power with an imperial past and future aspiration of grandeur.
Now, with seven more months likely to be added to this charade, Iran will be kept at the negotiating table with the bribe of US$700m a month - as the interim agreement stipulates. Given what's already been conceded, the goal can only be a bad deal. Western leverage, already weakened by one year of sanctions relief, will further diminish. The pressure from the business communities in Europe and Asia to lift restrictions will mount. And reluctance by Western powers to enforce existing sanctions lest the Iranians walk out of talks will do the rest.
As if this were not enough, an extension means that for seven more months - and maybe longer - neither Europe nor the US will implement a thorough review of their policies in the Middle East. That this review is urgent should be obvious by the alarming rise of the Islamic State. An obvious step would be to reassess Western reluctance to take on Bashar al-Assad. But such a step is not in the cards for fear of antagonising Assad's patron - Iran.
A bad deal will emerge, eventually. What will follow, though, will neither be a thaw in relations nor a diplomatic solution. There will be a regional crisis, with Iran a nuclear threshold state in a region where America's moment has already peaked.
Fri, 28 Nov 2014 11:19:46 +0000Emanuele Ottolenghi126062 at http://www.thejc.comIran nuclear deadline pushed back to July 2015http://www.thejc.com/news/world-news/125936/iran-nuclear-deadline-pushed-back-july-2015
<p>The deadline for a deal to halt Iran’s nuclear weapons programme has been pushed back seven months.</p>
<p>The US, UK, Russia, China, France and Germany originally set a deadline for today, but failed to reach a long-term deal that would take the place of the interim agreement signed in Geneva last year.</p>
<p>The group of nations will restart negotiations with Iran in December and aim to finalise an agreement by 1 July, during which period the Islamic Republic will be permitted access to £450m per month in frozen funds.</p>
<p>Speaking in anticipation of the deferral, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “No deal is better than a bad deal. The deal that Iran was pushing for was terrible. A deal would have left Iran with the ability to enrich uranium for an atom bomb while removing the sanctions.</p>
<p>“The right deal that is needed is to dismantle Iran's capacity to make atomic bombs and only then dismantle the sanctions. Since that's not in the offing, this result is better, a lot better.”</p>
<p>The UK’s Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, who has been involved in the talks in Vienna, said this latest development was “a disappointment, but rather than continue blindly we have to recognise the reality that we're not going to make a deal tonight”.</p>
<p>He added: "We are all clear that enough progress has been made that maintaining the current momentum, and keeping working at it, does give us the prospect of getting to a deal.”</p>World newsUnited StatesNuclear weaponsIran125936storyhttp://www.thejc.com/files/Iran nuclear.jpg

(Photo: Getty Images)

125735Iran deal now within reach, say diplomats125435Israel fears worst in Iran nuclear talks
The deadline for a deal to halt Iran’s nuclear weapons programme has been pushed back seven months.
The US, UK, Russia, China, France and Germany originally set a deadline for today, but failed to reach a long-term deal that would take the place of the interim agreement signed in Geneva last year.
The group of nations will restart negotiations with Iran in December and aim to finalise an agreement by 1 July, during which period the Islamic Republic will be permitted access to £450m per month in frozen funds.
Speaking in anticipation of the deferral, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “No deal is better than a bad deal. The deal that Iran was pushing for was terrible. A deal would have left Iran with the ability to enrich uranium for an atom bomb while removing the sanctions.
“The right deal that is needed is to dismantle Iran's capacity to make atomic bombs and only then dismantle the sanctions. Since that's not in the offing, this result is better, a lot better.”
The UK’s Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, who has been involved in the talks in Vienna, said this latest development was “a disappointment, but rather than continue blindly we have to recognise the reality that we're not going to make a deal tonight”.
He added: "We are all clear that enough progress has been made that maintaining the current momentum, and keeping working at it, does give us the prospect of getting to a deal.”
Mon, 24 Nov 2014 17:37:54 +0000Josh Jackman125936 at http://www.thejc.comSoon, only obstacle to an Iranian bomb will be the Israeli Air Forcehttp://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/123924/soon-only-obstacle-iranian-bomb-will-be-israeli-air-force
<p>As the November 24 deadline for a nuclear deal with Iran approaches, there is no sign of an agreement. Despite upbeat public comments by Western officials that a deal is still possible, little progress has been made since Iran and the six world powers signed an interim agreement in Geneva almost a year ago. If there is a deal by November 24, it is because the West will fold and concede to Iran's demands.</p>
<p>Iran is sticking to its goals of retaining its nuclear infrastructure intact while peeling away at the sanctions architecture that crippled its economy. The six world powers are blurring their own red lines on every element of the negotiations in the hope of attaining any deal they can tout as success.</p>
<p>By obtaining recognition for a right of enrichment in the interim agreement, Iran already undermined six UN Security Council resolutions and established the principle that whatever else happens, its indigenous nuclear enrichment programme will remain in place. </p>
<p>By exacting sanctions relief early on, Iran changed market psychology and improved the fundamentals of its economy. Whereas a year ago Iran's economy was still on a downward trajectory, all now points to slow but steady economic recovery. And by refusing to budge on any substantive issue, Iran is ensuring that, if a deal is to be had, its ability to march on to a nuclear weapon will only be delayed but not scuttled.</p>
<p>Recent news leaks about US negotiators' creative solutions to the apparent negotiating impasse must be seen in this light. Their initial goal was to scale down Iran's industrial-size enrichment from the current 19,000 installed IR-1 centrifuges to a symbolic number, which French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius indicated would be in the hundreds. Over months of talks, numbers floated in the press varied, from 1,500 to 7,500. If Iran were to keep its entire arsenal of centrifuges intact - disabling the piping that connects them - it would be able to move back towards enriching at present levels by simply reinstalling the piping. </p>
<p>Although that would be a violation, the time then required for Iran's technicians to restore the status quo ante would be much faster than the speed at which the international community would react.</p>
<p>In short, the US idea, touted as "creative" by American sources, is as creative as making the guillotine preferable to hanging, since the end result does not differ that much.</p>
<p>There are the other retreats from previously heralded "red lines". Iran's ballistic missile programme is no longer part of the negotiations. Iran's stonewalling with the International Atomic Energy Agency about the nuclear programme's clandestine military dimensions is getting a pass. Iran's history of nuclear procurement will not likely be documented in full. A new verification regime will not be as stringent as required, given Iran's history of nuclear deception. And the duration of the deal will not be decades, but merely years - which means that, once the deal has expired, Iran's nuclear programme will be treated like that of the UK, Germany or the Netherlands.</p>
<p>In the seven weeks left to the 24 November deadline, it is unlikely that Iran will concede what its counterparts are no longer demanding and offer what they are asking for without much conviction. If a deal emerges on November 24, it will be a bad one. After which, the only thing that stands between Iran and a nuclear bomb is the Israeli Air Force.</p>
<p>● Two people were killed in an explosion at a plant for the production of explosives east of Tehran this week.</p>AnalysisNuclear weaponsIran123924storyhttp://www.thejc.com/files/images/07102014-bushehir.jpg

Inside Iran&#039;s Bushehr nuclear plant

123923Islamic State: we'll eliminate women, children, apostates - and caviar123649US 'diluting Iran bomb deal' Emanuele Ottolenghi is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies in Washington DC
As the November 24 deadline for a nuclear deal with Iran approaches, there is no sign of an agreement. Despite upbeat public comments by Western officials that a deal is still possible, little progress has been made since Iran and the six world powers signed an interim agreement in Geneva almost a year ago. If there is a deal by November 24, it is because the West will fold and concede to Iran's demands.
Iran is sticking to its goals of retaining its nuclear infrastructure intact while peeling away at the sanctions architecture that crippled its economy. The six world powers are blurring their own red lines on every element of the negotiations in the hope of attaining any deal they can tout as success.
By obtaining recognition for a right of enrichment in the interim agreement, Iran already undermined six UN Security Council resolutions and established the principle that whatever else happens, its indigenous nuclear enrichment programme will remain in place.
By exacting sanctions relief early on, Iran changed market psychology and improved the fundamentals of its economy. Whereas a year ago Iran's economy was still on a downward trajectory, all now points to slow but steady economic recovery. And by refusing to budge on any substantive issue, Iran is ensuring that, if a deal is to be had, its ability to march on to a nuclear weapon will only be delayed but not scuttled.
Recent news leaks about US negotiators' creative solutions to the apparent negotiating impasse must be seen in this light. Their initial goal was to scale down Iran's industrial-size enrichment from the current 19,000 installed IR-1 centrifuges to a symbolic number, which French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius indicated would be in the hundreds. Over months of talks, numbers floated in the press varied, from 1,500 to 7,500. If Iran were to keep its entire arsenal of centrifuges intact - disabling the piping that connects them - it would be able to move back towards enriching at present levels by simply reinstalling the piping.
Although that would be a violation, the time then required for Iran's technicians to restore the status quo ante would be much faster than the speed at which the international community would react.
In short, the US idea, touted as "creative" by American sources, is as creative as making the guillotine preferable to hanging, since the end result does not differ that much.
There are the other retreats from previously heralded "red lines". Iran's ballistic missile programme is no longer part of the negotiations. Iran's stonewalling with the International Atomic Energy Agency about the nuclear programme's clandestine military dimensions is getting a pass. Iran's history of nuclear procurement will not likely be documented in full. A new verification regime will not be as stringent as required, given Iran's history of nuclear deception. And the duration of the deal will not be decades, but merely years - which means that, once the deal has expired, Iran's nuclear programme will be treated like that of the UK, Germany or the Netherlands.
In the seven weeks left to the 24 November deadline, it is unlikely that Iran will concede what its counterparts are no longer demanding and offer what they are asking for without much conviction. If a deal emerges on November 24, it will be a bad one. After which, the only thing that stands between Iran and a nuclear bomb is the Israeli Air Force.
● Two people were killed in an explosion at a plant for the production of explosives east of Tehran this week.
Tue, 07 Oct 2014 10:03:36 +0000Emanuele Ottolenghi123924 at http://www.thejc.comDismay as Iran nuclear talks unresolvedhttp://www.thejc.com/news/world-news/120835/dismay-iran-nuclear-talks-unresolved
<p>Israeli officials are sceptical that an extended deadline for reaching a comprehensive agreement on Iran's nuclear programme will block its attempts to achieve a nuclear weapon.</p>
<p>Talks between Iran and the P5+1 world powers group broke up last Friday in Vienna having failed to reach an agreement. The deadline has been put back by four months. </p>
<p>The temporary deal signed last November in Geneva in which Iran agreed to curb its uranium enrichment and the building of a new heavy-water reactor, in exchange for limited sanctions relief, was due to expire on July 20. </p>
<p>The failure of the sides to reach a new long-term agreement left little choice but to extend the interim deal until late November. During this period, Iran has agreed to the limits on nuclear development already in place and in return will receive a further $2.8 billion of funds frozen under the sanctions. </p>
<p>Israeli officials said in recent weeks that an extension of the current interim agreement is "just what Iran wants" but the official response from Jerusalem was muted.</p>
<p>In an interview with Reuters, Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz said that Israel is "not enthusiastic about an extension but that it would be better than a bad deal or a deal that is incomplete".</p>
<p>An Israeli official explained that while the interim deal limited Iran's capabilities to produce the enriched uranium necessary for a nuclear warhead, the Iranians will still be able to progress in other research and development areas. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, "the tough sanctions that forced Iran to the negotiating table are being eroded without Iran having to give anything significant in return." </p>
<p>On Monday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) published a report saying that, so far, Iran has complied with its commitments in the interim agreement. </p>World newsNuclear weaponsIran120835story

Israeli officials are sceptical that an extended deadline for reaching a comprehensive agreement on Iran's nuclear programme will block its attempts to achieve a nuclear weapon.
Talks between Iran and the P5+1 world powers group broke up last Friday in Vienna having failed to reach an agreement. The deadline has been put back by four months.
The temporary deal signed last November in Geneva in which Iran agreed to curb its uranium enrichment and the building of a new heavy-water reactor, in exchange for limited sanctions relief, was due to expire on July 20.
The failure of the sides to reach a new long-term agreement left little choice but to extend the interim deal until late November. During this period, Iran has agreed to the limits on nuclear development already in place and in return will receive a further $2.8 billion of funds frozen under the sanctions.
Israeli officials said in recent weeks that an extension of the current interim agreement is "just what Iran wants" but the official response from Jerusalem was muted.
In an interview with Reuters, Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz said that Israel is "not enthusiastic about an extension but that it would be better than a bad deal or a deal that is incomplete".
An Israeli official explained that while the interim deal limited Iran's capabilities to produce the enriched uranium necessary for a nuclear warhead, the Iranians will still be able to progress in other research and development areas.
Meanwhile, "the tough sanctions that forced Iran to the negotiating table are being eroded without Iran having to give anything significant in return."
On Monday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) published a report saying that, so far, Iran has complied with its commitments in the interim agreement.
Fri, 25 Jul 2014 09:00:47 +0000Anshel Pfeffer120835 at http://www.thejc.comBoom and bust-up: Iran nuclear negotiations end without resultshttp://www.thejc.com/news/world-news/116686/boom-and-bust-iran-nuclear-negotiations-end-without-results
<p>A second round of negotiations between the P5+1 group and the Iranian government on Iran’s nuclear programme ended this week without results and accusations flying between Israel, the US and the Islamic Republic. </p>
<p>Despite the upbeat announcements — a spokesperson for the European Union foreign policy chief, Baroness Ashton, said the talks had been “substantive and useful” — little progress was achieved on the core issues. </p>
<p>Iran still refuses to dismantle key parts of its uranium enrichment process, stop the construction of a new plutonium reactor or discuss curbing its development of long-range missiles. </p>
<p>While the atmosphere in Vienna remained outwardly cordial, back in Tehran, the regime accused the US and its allies of trying to scupper the talks at Israel’s behest. </p>
<p>Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Ravanchi said: “As far as the missiles are concerned, these are related to Iran’s defence capabilities and we cannot allow, under any circumstances, that non-nuclear issues be included in the talks… any linkage of this sort is out of the question and unacceptable.” </p>
<p>American officials have insisted that all aspects of Iran’s nuclear programme must be addressed in the comprehensive agreement which, under the terms of the interim deal, is due to be signed by the beginning of July. </p>
<p>The two sides are to reconvene next month once again in Vienna in attempt to bridge their differences. </p>
<p>Western diplomats have voiced fears in recent days that the ongoing crisis with Russia over the situation in Ukraine will make it much more difficult for the P5+1 group of international powers to co-ordinate a joint position on Iran.</p>
<p>The lack of genuinely substantive progress in the talks with the Iranians underlines Israeli fears that Tehran is seeking to prolong the current situation under the Geneva interim agreement signed<br />
last November. Under the deal, Iran agreed to halt uranium enrichment and construction at the Arak heavy-water reactor but relinquished none of its technical capabilities and was allowed to continue producing long-range ballistic missiles — which can carry nuclear warheads. </p>
<p>While the Geneva agreement only allowed for limited sanctions relief, Israel is concerned that the momentum created by the severe sanctions in recent years has now been broken and Western companies are once again flocking to Iran to do business. </p>
<p>Some senior Israeli officials now believe that, despite the repeated promises by President Barack Obama that he would not allow Iran to achieve military nuclear capabilities and “all options are on the table”, the US has effectively accepted Iran’s status as a “nuclear threshold” state. </p>
<p>This view was echoed by Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Ya’alon in a speech at Tel Aviv University on Sunday, in which he warned that the US is “showing weakness” in its foreign policy. </p>
<p>He added that Israel’s conclusion regarding Iran should be that “we have to behave as though we have nobody to look out for us but ourselves”. </p>
<p>Mr Ya’alon’s remarks earned him a stinging response from an unnamed senior American official who accused him of “undermining” the strategic relationship between Israel and the US.</p>
<p>Ha’aretz reported this week that, in a meeting between Knesset members and senior IDF officers, the parliamentarians were told that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mr Ya’alon had instructed the military to continue preparing a possible military strike on Iran’s nuclear installations in 2014. </p>
<p>According to the IDF officers, a budget of over NIS 10bn has been allocated to the operation.</p>World newsNuclear weaponsIran116686storyhttp://www.thejc.com/files/irannukes.JPG

A second round of negotiations between the P5+1 group and the Iranian government on Iran’s nuclear programme ended this week without results and accusations flying between Israel, the US and the Islamic Republic.
Despite the upbeat announcements — a spokesperson for the European Union foreign policy chief, Baroness Ashton, said the talks had been “substantive and useful” — little progress was achieved on the core issues.
Iran still refuses to dismantle key parts of its uranium enrichment process, stop the construction of a new plutonium reactor or discuss curbing its development of long-range missiles.
While the atmosphere in Vienna remained outwardly cordial, back in Tehran, the regime accused the US and its allies of trying to scupper the talks at Israel’s behest.
Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Ravanchi said: “As far as the missiles are concerned, these are related to Iran’s defence capabilities and we cannot allow, under any circumstances, that non-nuclear issues be included in the talks… any linkage of this sort is out of the question and unacceptable.”
American officials have insisted that all aspects of Iran’s nuclear programme must be addressed in the comprehensive agreement which, under the terms of the interim deal, is due to be signed by the beginning of July.
The two sides are to reconvene next month once again in Vienna in attempt to bridge their differences.
Western diplomats have voiced fears in recent days that the ongoing crisis with Russia over the situation in Ukraine will make it much more difficult for the P5+1 group of international powers to co-ordinate a joint position on Iran.
The lack of genuinely substantive progress in the talks with the Iranians underlines Israeli fears that Tehran is seeking to prolong the current situation under the Geneva interim agreement signed
last November. Under the deal, Iran agreed to halt uranium enrichment and construction at the Arak heavy-water reactor but relinquished none of its technical capabilities and was allowed to continue producing long-range ballistic missiles — which can carry nuclear warheads.
While the Geneva agreement only allowed for limited sanctions relief, Israel is concerned that the momentum created by the severe sanctions in recent years has now been broken and Western companies are once again flocking to Iran to do business.
Some senior Israeli officials now believe that, despite the repeated promises by President Barack Obama that he would not allow Iran to achieve military nuclear capabilities and “all options are on the table”, the US has effectively accepted Iran’s status as a “nuclear threshold” state.
This view was echoed by Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Ya’alon in a speech at Tel Aviv University on Sunday, in which he warned that the US is “showing weakness” in its foreign policy.
He added that Israel’s conclusion regarding Iran should be that “we have to behave as though we have nobody to look out for us but ourselves”.
Mr Ya’alon’s remarks earned him a stinging response from an unnamed senior American official who accused him of “undermining” the strategic relationship between Israel and the US.
Ha’aretz reported this week that, in a meeting between Knesset members and senior IDF officers, the parliamentarians were told that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mr Ya’alon had instructed the military to continue preparing a possible military strike on Iran’s nuclear installations in 2014.
According to the IDF officers, a budget of over NIS 10bn has been allocated to the operation.
Thu, 20 Mar 2014 16:32:19 +0000Anshel Pfeffer116686 at http://www.thejc.comIsraeli concern over Iran nuclear talks in Viennahttp://www.thejc.com/news/world-news/115753/israeli-concern-over-iran-nuclear-talks-vienna
<p>The Israeli government is concerned that the cordial but insubstantial tones of the nuclear talks taking place in Vienna this week are the start of prolonged negotiations which will allow Iran to increase its nuclear<br />
capabilities. </p>
<p>A spokesman for European Union foreign policy chief, Baroness Catherine Ashton, the main representative of the five world powers at the P5+1 talks said that “all the concerns of the international community” would be addressed. </p>
<p>However, Iranian negotiators made it clear on Tuesday that they refused to discuss anything but their nuclear programme, and that any mention of issues such as their long-range missile development is off the table.</p>
<p> They added that there was no question of Iran dismantling its nuclear facilities. Both sides said that the talks had gone well though there was no expectation of a breakthrough in the first round of negotiations over a comprehensive solution.</p>
<p>The developments, or lack of them in Vienna, are stoking Israeli fears that the interim agreement signed in Geneva three months ago, which gives the Iranians limited sanctions relief in return for curbs on uranium enrichment and a partial building-freeze at the Arak heavy-water reactor and was supposed to last for only six months until a comprehensive deal is signed, will become a semi-permanent situation. Israel’s assessment is that while the main sanctions remain in place, a positive momentum has been created for the Iranian economy which has stabilised its currency, reopened its markets and removed much of the pressure on the regime in Tehran. At the same time, Iran can continue research and development in the main “bottlenecks” of its nuclear programme, including the minitaurisation of a warhead and accurate delivery systems. </p>
<p>“The international community is allowing Iran to solidify its position as a nuclear threshold state” said an Israeli official this week. </p>
<p>Former commander of Israeli military intelligence Major-General Amos Yadlin said: “Iran has been a threshold state since 2010. It has the materials, the enrichment capabilities and the knowledge that could allow it to develop a weapon and put it on a delivery device in a year’s time.” </p>
<p>Therefore, he said: “Israel and also Saudi Arabia, the gulf states and large parts of the American Congress are not satisfied with the interim agreement and are not prepared for it to become a permanent one.” </p>
<p>A comprehensive agreement, he said, must include a drastic reduction of Iran’s centrifuges, the removal from the country of uranium already enriched, the closure of the Arak reactor and “very tight” inspection of Iran’s nuclear research facilities.</p>
<p>Israel’s demands of the talks went a step further to include the complete removal of all the centrifuge systems. </p>
<p>“If the comprehensive agreement includes centrifuges and uranium enrichment, it will lead to a nuclear arms race throughout the Middle East,” Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz said in a speech in Jerusalem. </p>
<p>To underline Israel’s message, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the temporary hospital operated by the IDF on the Golan Heights where wounded refugees from the Syrian Civil War are being treated. </p>
<p>“On the day the talks are opening in Vienna, the world must see the pictures from this place,” he said. </p>
<p>“Israel is saving the lives of the casualties of the daily massacre going on in Syria. This is the real face of Israel. While Iran is arming those who are carrying out the massacres.”</p>World newsIsraelNuclear weaponsIran115753storyhttp://www.thejc.com/files/iran.JPG

The Israeli government is concerned that the cordial but insubstantial tones of the nuclear talks taking place in Vienna this week are the start of prolonged negotiations which will allow Iran to increase its nuclear
capabilities.
A spokesman for European Union foreign policy chief, Baroness Catherine Ashton, the main representative of the five world powers at the P5+1 talks said that “all the concerns of the international community” would be addressed.
However, Iranian negotiators made it clear on Tuesday that they refused to discuss anything but their nuclear programme, and that any mention of issues such as their long-range missile development is off the table.
They added that there was no question of Iran dismantling its nuclear facilities. Both sides said that the talks had gone well though there was no expectation of a breakthrough in the first round of negotiations over a comprehensive solution.
The developments, or lack of them in Vienna, are stoking Israeli fears that the interim agreement signed in Geneva three months ago, which gives the Iranians limited sanctions relief in return for curbs on uranium enrichment and a partial building-freeze at the Arak heavy-water reactor and was supposed to last for only six months until a comprehensive deal is signed, will become a semi-permanent situation. Israel’s assessment is that while the main sanctions remain in place, a positive momentum has been created for the Iranian economy which has stabilised its currency, reopened its markets and removed much of the pressure on the regime in Tehran. At the same time, Iran can continue research and development in the main “bottlenecks” of its nuclear programme, including the minitaurisation of a warhead and accurate delivery systems.
“The international community is allowing Iran to solidify its position as a nuclear threshold state” said an Israeli official this week.
Former commander of Israeli military intelligence Major-General Amos Yadlin said: “Iran has been a threshold state since 2010. It has the materials, the enrichment capabilities and the knowledge that could allow it to develop a weapon and put it on a delivery device in a year’s time.”
Therefore, he said: “Israel and also Saudi Arabia, the gulf states and large parts of the American Congress are not satisfied with the interim agreement and are not prepared for it to become a permanent one.”
A comprehensive agreement, he said, must include a drastic reduction of Iran’s centrifuges, the removal from the country of uranium already enriched, the closure of the Arak reactor and “very tight” inspection of Iran’s nuclear research facilities.
Israel’s demands of the talks went a step further to include the complete removal of all the centrifuge systems.
“If the comprehensive agreement includes centrifuges and uranium enrichment, it will lead to a nuclear arms race throughout the Middle East,” Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz said in a speech in Jerusalem.
To underline Israel’s message, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the temporary hospital operated by the IDF on the Golan Heights where wounded refugees from the Syrian Civil War are being treated.
“On the day the talks are opening in Vienna, the world must see the pictures from this place,” he said.
“Israel is saving the lives of the casualties of the daily massacre going on in Syria. This is the real face of Israel. While Iran is arming those who are carrying out the massacres.”
Thu, 20 Feb 2014 17:00:55 +0000Anshel Pfeffer115753 at http://www.thejc.comNuclear talks with Iran kick off in Viennahttp://www.thejc.com/news/world-news/115715/nuclear-talks-iran-kick-vienna
<p>Negotiations between Iran and six world powers on the Islamic Republic's contentious nuclear programme are beginning in Vienna this morning.</p>
<p>This latest round of talks is meant to build on the progress made last November when Iran said it would reduce uranium enrichment activities - the process needed to make a nuclear bomb - in return for sanctions relief.</p>
<p>But the Iranian government has downplayed any chances of success.</p>
<p>Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told supporters in Tehran on Monday that he was not "optimistic" about the talks, saying they would "not lead anywhere".</p>
<p>Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammed Zarif said he would not give up the "nation's rights and interests", which is interpreted by some commentators as meaning the right to enrich.</p>
<p>Speaking at a conference of American Jewish leaders, Prime Minister Netanyahu said Iran had made "zero" compromise on its nuclear programme while receiving huge economic and business concessions in return.</p>
<p>British Ambassador to Israel Matthew Gould said: "The UK and Israel share the same unshakeable goal of preventing Iran from building a nuclear weapon. We are not naïve and, although we urge all sides to negotiate in good faith, we are not relying on good words, smiles or promises."</p>World newsNuclear weaponsIran115715storyhttp://www.thejc.com/files/500Iran_negotiations_about_Iran's_nuclear.jpg

Previous nuclear negotiations between Iran and representatives from the six world powers in Geneva (Photo: US Department of State)

115230Iran’s ‘moderate’ icon unmasked114812Iran to destroy stocks of enriched uranium
Negotiations between Iran and six world powers on the Islamic Republic's contentious nuclear programme are beginning in Vienna this morning.
This latest round of talks is meant to build on the progress made last November when Iran said it would reduce uranium enrichment activities - the process needed to make a nuclear bomb - in return for sanctions relief.
But the Iranian government has downplayed any chances of success.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told supporters in Tehran on Monday that he was not "optimistic" about the talks, saying they would "not lead anywhere".
Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammed Zarif said he would not give up the "nation's rights and interests", which is interpreted by some commentators as meaning the right to enrich.
Speaking at a conference of American Jewish leaders, Prime Minister Netanyahu said Iran had made "zero" compromise on its nuclear programme while receiving huge economic and business concessions in return.
British Ambassador to Israel Matthew Gould said: "The UK and Israel share the same unshakeable goal of preventing Iran from building a nuclear weapon. We are not naïve and, although we urge all sides to negotiate in good faith, we are not relying on good words, smiles or promises."
Tue, 18 Feb 2014 10:20:03 +0000Daniel Easterman115715 at http://www.thejc.com