Internal documents recently reviewed by Fortune, originally requested by Congress, show what the bill's critics predicted, and what its champions dreaded: many large companies are examining a course that was heretofore unthinkable, dumping the health care coverage they provide to their workers in exchange for paying penalty fees to the government.

That would dismantle the employer-based system that has reigned since World War II. It would also seem to contradict President Obama's statements that Americans who like their current plans could keep them. And as we'll see, it would hugely magnify the projected costs for the bill, which controls deficits only by assuming that America's employers would remain the backbone of the nation's health care system.

One might ask why AT&T offered health insurance prior to the passage of the legislation, when there was no mandate instead of the current weak mandate? To attract quality employees, of course. So the real calculus goes like this, now that there is a government plan, how unhappy would it make AT&T's employees to be dumped into that government plan. Two variables are at play, first the opportunity cost to cover employees went from $2.4 billion to $1.8 billion. The other variable is that employees go from a situation where they might be covered by their employer, or not at all, to situation where they are covered by their employer or by a government plan. I think we lack the data to understand how this calculus will play out.

By the way, none of this is a defense of Obamacare. The fact that big companies are considering this move is a sure sign that bill is already a failure in some way.