Scouting the Western Conference finals

It would be a mistake to view this as a direct sequel to 2011, when eighth-seeded Memphis knocked off the No. 1 Spurs in the first round to engineer one of the biggest upsets in recent NBA history.

The Grizzlies no longer have the steady, veteran hand of Shane Battier, or the wild cards that were Greivis Vasquez and O.J. Mayo. Neither are the Spurs relying on spare parts to shore up their front court around a hobbled Tim Duncan.

But with most of the main faces returning — Duncan, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, Tony Parker, Mike Conley, Manu Ginobili, both coaches — the tone of the matchup will remain the same: Football on hardwood.

Perhaps no team in the NBA is better at imposing their will than the Grizzlies. It is not by accident that their slogans — “Grit ‘N Grind” and “Whoop That Trick” — imply violence. The Grizzlies are tough, the Grizzlies are physical, and the Grizzlies are relentless, a perfect match with the blue-collar city they represent.

“If you thought this was physical,” Duncan said after the Spurs eliminated Golden State, “it’s going to turn up about 10 notches.”

The Spurs flinched badly under such circumstances two years ago, becoming only the fourth No. 1 seed to bow out in the first round. But after recapturing some of the defensive edge from their past championship campaigns, they can now give almost as good as they get.

Duncan was aggressive against the Warriors, averaging 17.3 shots per game. But he made only 42.3 percent of those attempts, and that bears watching as he’ll be matching up with arguably the most rugged big in the league, Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol. Gasol will put pressure on Duncan at the other end as well as he’s upped his playoff scoring average to 18.3 ppg. But Duncan had moments of dominance against the Grizzlies (27 points in the first matchup, including this basket), and unlike 2011 he’s actually healthy.

Power forward

If you want to know how the Grizzlies upset the Spurs two years ago, start here. Randolph devoured them, bones and all, to the tune of 21.5 points and 9.2 rebounds. But unlike then, when they were forced to throw the likes of Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair into the fray, the Spurs can now run outTiago Splitter. He’s not the athletic shot blocker Spurs fans have been pining after since, oh, around David Robinson’s retirement. But like a lesser version of Gasol, Splitter understands the value of solid positional defense.

Small forward

Kawhi Leonard enjoyed the best playoff series of his young career against Golden State, chipping in with nearly 15 points per game and shutting down Klay Thompson despite dealing with lingering leg issues. He faces a completely different player in the veteran Tayshaun Prince, whose offensive capabilities — never great to begin with — have shrunk considerably. That should allow Leonard to slough off and help his bigs inside, particularly as Prince’s 3-point stroke has all but disappeared in the postseason (25 percent).

Shooting guard

Danny Green has maintained his regular-season shooting rate in the playoffs (41.7 percent on 3s), and that’s good enough after he completely disappeared in last year’s conference finals. But it seems a waste to stick Tony Allen, arguably the top perimeter defender in the NBA, on a player who remains almost exclusively a spot-up shooter. The same can be said with Green on Allen, who has made a paltry two 3s in 11 playoff games. As such, you can expect plenty of defensive cross-matches with both players on the opposing point guard.

Point guard

It was a strange second-round series for Parker, who upped his scoring average to 22.5 points but struggled to shoot and create with consistency. A bruised left calf certainly didn’t help. Neither did Thompson’s length, something Memphis can duplicate — and then some — with either Allen or, if necessary, Prince. Conley isn’t on Parker’s level, but he’s not far off. A consummate floor general, he does just about everything well. The Grizzlies follow his lead; they’re 13-4 when he scores 20 or more, and 9-1 when he registers double-digit assists.

Bench

The Grizzlies use a three-man unit — guard Jerryd Bayless, swingman Quincy Pondexter, post Darrell Arthur — to supplement their starters. It’s not a particularly dynamic group, which puts pressure on the first five to log heavy minutes and produce. The lone constant for the Spurs is Manu Ginobili, not necessarily with his performance (37.7 FG% in the playoffs) but his role. After him, Popovich plugs in Matt Bonner, Boris Diaw, Gary Neal and Cory Joseph wherever he sees fit. Bonner’s shooting and Joseph’s defense could be important.

Coaching

Let no one accuse Gregg Popovich of succumbing to immutability. He pitched one of the great curve balls of his career in the last round, sitting Duncan for nearly five minutes down the stretch of Game 6 as the Spurs won going away. His ability to infuse structure with such creativity is unmatched. While Lionel Hollins doesn’t have Pop’s experience or resume, he’s proven to be a perfect fit for the Grizzlies, a tough-minded coach who matches their defensive mentality. But a lack of imagination on offense could be their downfall.

The key points

* Containing Randolph and Gasol is paramount. The two titans are averaging 38 points and 13 free throws per game in the postseason. But, as noted, the Spurs are far better suited to match up than in 2011. Indeed, the Spurs had one of league’s top interior defenses this season (eighth in points allowed, third in opposing FG% at the rim).

* The Grizzlies don’t make many 3s (6.2 per game in the regular season, 4.5 per game in the playoffs), but they don’t give up many either as their opponents hit less than a third of their attempts. While getting free beyond the arc won’t be easy, it could be the difference for a Spurs team that boasts considerably more offensive firepower.

* Going hand in hand with that will be the battle of tempo. The Grizzlies played at the league’s lowest pace this season (88 possessions per game), while the Spurs were sixth-fastest (94 possession per game). Memphis simply can’t keep up offensively in a faster game, but they’ll always have the advantage in grind-it-out affairs.

The prediction

As should be clear by now, these Spurs are not the same team that buckled when Memphis beat them up in 2011. They couldn’t hang back then. But the Grizzlies will find a different challenge awaiting them as the Spurs seek not only to avenge that defeat, but their missed opportunity against Oklahoma City in last year’s conference finals.