And now, Dorset police have issued a brief but dramatic missive, urging drivers not to panic buy and asking petrol stations to consider closing for a period to ease the queues. As the TV news stations show footage of drivers queuing for fuel it would seem that the self-perpetuating nature of events will only intensify

There is no disruption to the fuel supply in the UK and members of the public should not panic buy.

The actions of some motorists in queuing irresponsibly at petrol stations is causing danger to other road users.

Police are taking action, requesting petrol stations to close temporarily in order to keep traffic flowing.

Once the queues have dispersed, the petrol stations may re-open for short periods.

1.20pm: So, how did we get to this point? Yes, around 2,000 drivers for seven petrol distribution companies have, in the main, voted for possible strike action over concerns about working conditions and safety. However, any stoppage requires a full seven days notice, and with talks at the conciliation service Acas apparently due it seems very unlikely that anything will happen before Easter.

Nonetheless, ministers have been consistent in their advice that motorists should avoid possible shortages by topping up part-full tanks if they get a chance. The cabinet office minister, Francis Maude, also advised drivers to have a full jerrycan in the garage, words soon rescinded when it emerged that this contravened official fire service advice.

The official position remains that advice to keep your car full of petrol is merely prudent. The energy secretary, Ed Davey, put it this why earlier today:

We are under no illusion, the impacts of a tanker strike could be very severe for our economy, could really disrupt the lives of millions of people. So we are advising people to keep their fuel tanks topped up.

If they have got a journey, maybe over the Easter holidays, they don't want their holidays disrupted by these strikers so they should make sure their tanks are full up well in advance.

1.27pm: So, is "panic" over-stating it? I spoke earlier to the RMI, the organisation which represents about 5,000 petrol stations around the country. They said that while fuel sales were hugely up - a survey of some members showed an 81% rise in petrol sales yesterday from the same day a week before, with an equivalent 43% increase in diesel sales - tanker supplies are still operating and thus there is no need for worry.

However, the picture around the country seems to indicate that people are, in fact, panicking. My colleague, Shiv Malik, has been trawling through tweets and other local reports and found a number of alarming updates. One tweet from Greater London's east reports:

@RomfordRecorder BP petrol station in upminster has run out of petrol and diesel.

This que faces AWAY from the petrol station as it loops back around twice before it gets to the pumps

1.40pm: It's worth mentioning that our communities team are seeking input for an interactive map of the situation near you. They write:

Is petrol panic hitting pumps near you? We've been asking for your help to map what's happening at petrol stations where you are – have you seen evidence of panic buying, excessive queuing or closed forecourts? Thanks to the more than 200 people who have submitted a report so far.

Visit this link to see a fullscreen version of the map. If you have a report to add, use the form on this page.

1.44pm: I've just spoken - finally - to the understandably busy Dorset police press office. They tell me that the request for some petrol stations to close for a period was taken for traffic reasons – some queues were so long that they had spilled onto roads, holding up other cars. They don't know yet if any garages have agreed to the request, but promise to let me know.

1.52pm: Shiv has pulled together some more tweets and queue pics, which I've pulled together using Storify (above).

1.53pm: The president of the AA, Edmund King, has called for calm. These quotes – which do not directly criticise the government but which are nonetheless damning – come from the Press Association:

There is no fuel tanker strike and therefore if drivers followed normal fuel buying patterns there would be no fuel shortage whatsoever.

We now have self-inflicted shortages due to poor advice about topping up the tank and hoarding in jerry cans. This in turn has led to localised shortages, queues and some profiteering at the pumps."

Even if we do have a strike which is unlikely, there will be seven days' notice of strike action, and therefore time for drivers to fill up. The AA has advised all along that drivers should follow their normal fuel buying patterns.

Theoretically if 30mn cars with half full tanks are advised to fill up over 24 hours, this means that 750m litres of fuel would be sold, whereas average sales over 24 hours would be 90m litres. Hence the top-up advice means that demand for fuel has increased more than seven-fold. So it is no surprise that the 'top-up' advice has led to shortages.

1.57pm: The ever-busy Shiv has sent me a link to the Liverpool Echo, which has on its website a brief, but illuminating video of a fuel queue. The accompanying story says:

Forecourt attendant Farhaan Mohammed, 21, expected petrol to have run out by today. He said there was no guarantee from Esso of more fuel.

Mr Mohammed said: "The queue did not stop all day, I have never seen anything like it. People are really worried that there will be no petrol. We sold around 500 litres of petrol every half an hour, usually we sell less than 100. It was incredible."

Social worker Terry McDonough was among scores of motorists scrambling to refuel. He said: "I need fuel to visit the people I need to visit. If I can't drive then I would have to use public transport which for my job isn't ideal."

On nearby Aigburth Road there was a 60m queue as drivers waited to access the Shell petrol station. A computer glitch left some drivers waiting for three-quarters of an hour to pay.

Shop attendant Aravinda Bandara said: "The system went down. It might be because it was just so busy. It has never broken before. People are really panicking. Normally drivers put in £10 or £20 but there are lots of people putting in £70 and £80."

2.03pm: Hampshire police have warned local motorists against panic, saying:

It is important for members of the public to bear in mind that members of the Unite union are still in talks with their employers, dedicated to finding a solution which will make strike action unnecessary.

There is currently no problem with fuel supplies in Hampshire and therefore we would urge all motorists to continue as normal with their fuel purchases - there is no need to stock up. Petrol stations in Hampshire and the Isle of Wight are not being closed.

Spurious rumours that are being spread online and through other mediums clearly have the potential to engender panic buying so it is in danger of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy when there really isn't an issue at this current time.

The Tesco Express garage in Roffey is one of the garages coned off to motorists after running out of both diesel and petrol since yesterday.

A Tesco spokeswoman said: "Customers are putting more fuel in their cars and we are experiencing an increase in sales in some areas, but customers can be reassured that the fuel supply chain is working hard to meet increased demand."

The BP petrol station in Five Oaks had run out of diesel by midday today (Thursday).

2.10pm: Dorset police have called back to say that five garages were asked to close due to queues causing traffic congestion – four in Bournemouth and Christchurch and one in Weymouth. They all did, briefly, and are now open again, a spokeswoman says. No need for the people of Dorset to panic, I ask? "That's quite right," she says.

2.11pm: Our man in the west of England and Wales, Steven Morris, sends this update:

Panic buying, queues on forecourts and rationing in north Wales. I merrily drove up to Llandudno this morning, then got very worried that I wouldn't make it back to base near Bristol. First three filling stations closed. Next one only let me take £10 of fuel ("until the boss gets here and dips the tank to see how much is left"). Finally managed to find a garage with petrol and filled up. Supposed to be in west Cornwall first thing tomorrow morning, not sure if I'll get there....

2.17pm: The Guardian's industrial editor Dan Milmo has some analysis of the situation and suggests that panic buying might not be all that bad for the government:

Whether calculated or not, the government's intervention in the fuel tanker dispute - combined with the media's ever effective panic multiplier - has helped stoke panic-buying sprees around the UK. If it was designed to make the government look like it is in charge of an impending national palaver, it hasn't worked.

Instead, the Fire Brigades Union has criticised the Cabinet Office minister, Francis Maude, for suggesting that motorists should keep a petrol stash "in a jerry can in the garage" while the energy secretary, Ed Davey, urged drivers to keep their tanks at least two-thirds full.

With no strike dates declared and a disruptive walkout at least seven days away anyway (due to strike laws that mandate a weeks' notice on setting dates) the government's pell-mell reaction to an industrial ballot is puzzling.

Nonetheless, there could be political benefits to scenes of panic. The government is not reacting in a vaccum. It is reacting to a strike ballot by drivers affiliated to the Unite trade union, Britain's largest union and the biggest donor to the Labour Party. Anti-trade union legislation and proposals are bubbling around various political figures - from Francis Maude to Boris Johnson and Eric Pickles - and disruption caused by a strike ballot, whether the mandate is used or not, could be a further spur to clunking the unions with some heavy-duty legislation.

This might not relate to Johnson's call for a minimum strike vote threshold. It could relate instead to legislation clamping down on facility time - employees working full time on union duties at work, using company 'facilities'. Even if the government has gone all Clouseau over the past few days, it might have softened the ground for a move on the unions.

2.23pm: And as if by magic, jerry can sales at Halford's have gone up by 500%:

Halfords has reported over a 500% rise in sales of jerry cans after Cabinet Minister Francis Maude's comments yesterday. Sales of all cans have soared by 225% compared with this time last year with motorists buying in "the thousands". Halfords commercial director Paul MClenaghan said:

"It is clear that there is an element of panic buying with customers telling us they want to be prepared for any industrial action. Sales started rising dramatically after the Government issued their warning and advised motorists to fill up."

2.27pm: Getting a report from the Guardian's Dan Milmo that despite all the panic buying around the country, talks have now been agreed between the tanker driver union and their employers. If that is correct there will be no strike in the near future.

It looks like Acas, the conciliation service, has sorted out terms for talks between the Unite trade union and the petrol hauliers. The terms of discussions will be thrashed out by Monday with serious sit-down talks to commence soon after. It doesn't mean the dispute is over. But it might shorten the petrol queues this weekend.

At the 09.00 hrs Tactical Management Meeting this morning, emergency response police commanders like me were told that our response crews must not sit in queues for fuel because it sends out 'the wrong message' and may panic the public. I guess the rationale behind this is that if the public see emergency service vehicles in queues, they will work out that we are not attending emergency calls and that we don't have our own fuel.

At the 10.00 hrs Local Management Meeting, neighbourhood police commanders were told that marked police vehicles should join the queues as soon as possible and get filled up as a contingency, in case the petrol stations run dry. If the public approach police officers in the queue and ask questions, we are to 'reassure them'. When asked how and what to reassure the public about, an answer was not forthcoming.

We have established plans for emergency service and essential staff vehicle fuel supply. Plans like restricted lanes at large 24/7 fuel stations and designated fuel stations in rural locations. We can't trigger these plans because then we would be officially admitting that there is a crisis. And of course there is not a crisis. Unless you are trying to fill up an ambulance, police car or fire engine.

2.58pm: A slight update on our earlier posts (here and here) about Acas talks involving Unite and the fuel haulage companies. According to Dan Milmo both sides are close to agreeing the terms for talks, rather than actually agreeing to have talks. We'll keep you posted. Either way, it doesn't appear that an actual strike – the supposed cause for all this fuss – is going to be called immediately.

3.03pm: An interesting snippet from the AA. Based on just the figures showing yesterday's 81% rise in petrol sales on the same day a week earlier, with a 43% rise for diesel, the government will have made an extra £32m in fuel duty, it calculates.

3.12pm: Here's a brief update, via PA – talks at Acas will not beging before Monday, the conciliation service has said.

3.23pm: Perhaps inevitably, Twitter is now seeing a rush of people reporting scuffles and fights as tempers fray at petrol stations.

Seriously idiots stop panic buying petrol, I genuinely need petrol and there is none, just saw an actual fight on the forecourt! #petrol

3.32pm: A Press Association reporter in Yorkshire has been checking the situation at local petrol stations:

In Ilkley, where there are two petrol stations, one had run dry while, on the opposite side of the road, queues were forming at the second station. A motorist was asked to leave the forecourt of one after he snatched the pump out of the hand of a female driver, an eyewitness said.

Elsewhere, queues were reported in Huddersfield as some pumps ran dry, and across forecourts in Leeds. At a Shell forecourt in Moortown, Leeds, there was a queue of 20 cars. One van driver said he had been waiting for 30 minutes to get fuel. Only four of the 12 pumps were dispensing fuel as motorists waited patiently.

In Harrogate, a forecourt on the outskirts of the town had run out of fuel by 11.30am.

In Rotherham, there was a queue for fuel at Asda in the Eastwood area of the town. A marshal in a fluorescent jacket was directing motorists as they queued for pumps. There were six or seven vehicles waiting to get into the forecourt, an eyewitness said.

Acas has been in contact with Unite officials as well as all the contractors involved in the fuel tanker drivers' dispute. We are now in the process of receiving more detailed briefings from the parties on the various issues underpinning the dispute. This will enable us to determine more clearly the form substantive talks should take to provide the best opportunity for a negotiated settlement.

We should conclude that process by Monday and would then hope substantive discussions would follow shortly afterwards.

4.32pm: My business desk colleague, Graeme Wearden, has been busy looking at the possible economic implications of this sudden rush to buy fuel:

It's possible that the rise in fuel sales in the last few days could give enough of a boost to economic activity for Britain to avoid a double-dip recession. But it's a complex question, and we may not know the full story for several months.

The Office for National Statistics confirmed to us that any increased spending on fuel would, in itself, equate to an increase in economic activity.

"Inevitably, this spending would feed through," an ONS spokesman said. "Any activity that is above the usual would have an effect on overall output."

Importantly, £1 of retail spending will usually makes a larger contribution to total economic activity. In the case of petrol, the ONS will also track the economic activity that took place when the crude oil was extracted and refined, and then transported to the petrol station. As the ONS spokesman puts it:

"All economic data feeds into the GDP number, so every transaction has a multiplying effect."

Petrol sold today was extracted many weeks ago – but the multiplier effect could be significant, if suppliers try to respond to the current boost in sales by shipping more fuel to the forecourt.

The ONS won't be drawn on the specific question of how today's fuel panic might affect GDP data, and pointed out that sales made this week may simply be brought forward from next week. However, the current quarter ends at midnight Saturday/Sunday, so GDP in the current quarter, and the next, could both feel an impact.

So, onto the numbers. Yesterday, the ONS reported that UK GDP fell by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011 to £352.42bn. This morning, the OECD estimated that GDP will fall by 0.1% in the current quarter. That would mean a technical recession (according to the definition of 'two consecutive quarters of negative growth' used in the UK). That 0.1% drop in GDP forecast by the OECD is equal to around £350m less economic activity.

How much extra petrol is being bought? If the AA's estimate of an extra £32m of duty (see 3.03pm) is right, that sounds like around £45m of extra sales. If sales today are much higher (as appears likely), and that trend continues on Friday and Saturday, then we could possibly see enough extra activity to nudge the GDP by that magic 0.1%.

Incidentally, because GDP changes are rounded up or down to the nearest 0.1%, it's possible that a smaller increase in output would be enough to 'tip the scales'.

However..... before we get too carried away, we should remember that the extra money being spent on petrol is probably eating into other retail spending (although if people are sticking it on their credit card, that might not apply).

And there's another catch. The 'first estimate' of UK GDP for the first quarter of 2012 will be released in late April, but it will only include data from January and February. We may not get a proper picture of March's economic activity until the 'final reading' of GDP in three month's time. (Unless, as happened after the bad winter of 2010, the ONS decides to factor in the likely impact of extra fuel spending as one of its (increasingly common) one-off factors....)

With the focus on getting talks underway with Acas, the conciliation service, a union source said the chances of Easter walkouts were increasingly unlikely. "The threat of an Easter strike is receding," said the source.

It is understood that Unite and the hauliers still have differences over the agenda for the talks although there is hope that those will be ironed out in time for sit-down talks to begin on Monday.

6.41pm: The Petrol Retailers Association, which represents about 5,500 garages, has blamed the government for causing panic buying.

"This is exactly what we didn't want - people panic-buying. Deliveries are still being made to garages and we are advising people to continue with their normal buying habits," a spokesman told PA.

A motorist in Ilkley, Yorkshire, was asked to leave a garage forecourt after snatching the pump out of the hand of a female driver, an eyewitness told the news agency.

One van driver in Leeds said he had been waiting 30 minutes to get fuel while in Harrogate a forecourt on the outskirts of the town had run out of fuel by 11.30am.

Retail store Halfords reported "high" sales of fuel cans. Sales of all cans have soared by 225% compared with this time last year, with motorists buying in "the thousands", while sales of jerry cans are up by more than 500%.

Firefighters were called to deal with a fuel spillage after a car was overfilled with petrol in Crawley, West Sussex.

About this article

Fuel panic - Thursday 29 March

This article was published on
the Guardian website
at 13.44 EDT on Thursday 29 March 2012.
It was last modified at 19.30 EDT on Tuesday 20 May 2014.
It was first published at 08.15 EDT on Thursday 29 March 2012.