Texans mythbusters: The Texans are not a “run first team”

I read a lot of Texans content. And on of the most repeated things I read about the Texans that I think is WRONG WRONG WRONG is the statement that the Texans are a “run first team.”

I think that some of these comments come from people who have only been sorta watching the Texans since they’ve had an actual, non-embarrassing NFL defense.

2011. Hello Wade Phillips. Glad you are building your house in Houston.

Now when I hear the term, “run first team,” it usually refers to garbage offenses that draft a good running back, run him into the ground because they don’t have a sensible offensive scheme, quarterback and have few choices. You know which teams I’m thinking of. I won’t name names, because that would just be piling on.

Now, there is no doubt, that the Texans will run the ball. Because usually they can and have become good at it.

“Run first” different than run TDs.

Rick Dennison was the Oline coach and then the offensive coordinator for some Broncos teams that had any number of running backs have sporty seasons. When he came to the Texans to be Offensive Coordinator, he was surprised how well the Texans moved the ball despite having no consistent running game.

That actually was too kind a statement. By Football Outsiders numbers, the Texans were 8th in passing efficiency, 32nd in running efficiency in 2009.

Part of that is for the Texans offense, the running game doesn’t have to work. It looks better when both the run and pass are working, but each component of the game needs to be at least semi-credible.

But when Dennison came to the team, he wanted the Texans offensive line to be dominant in the redzone, to be able to impose their will in the redzone by running the ball whenever they want to. And that was the beginning of Arian Foster vulturing a lot of redzone TDs. Why risk a interception when a lot of times Foster can just pick his way through the blocks and walk into the endzone? (Not as flashy as a passing TD, but I got to tell you I very much enjoy the Foster untouched, saunter-in TDs. Namaste y’all.)

Recently, both Paul Kuharsky at ESPN and Tania Ganguli from the Chronicle wondered about the lower percentage of passing Texans TDs relative to elite offenses. I’m not sure that changes even with personnel moves to the offensive line and receiver group because I think that is an intentional decision. They run because they think they can run, and relative to the rest of the league they run better than most. I also think that from a game to game perspective, I think it depends on what they think the best play would be against a particular defense.

Aspiring for offensive balance, keeping defenses off track.

Now probably the best recent description of the Texans offensive strategy comes from a Mike Silver article last year after the dismantling of the Ravens. Why do you know it is spot on? Because it heavily quotes former Texans QB Sage Rosenfels, and isn’t some random national writer dude who saw the Texans play a few nationally televised games the last few years or focuses on fantasy football stats or slept at a Holiday Inn Express one night and then tries to state his definitive opinion about the Texans.

The foundation of Kubiak’s offense, according to Rosenfels, is that players are coached to behave almost identically on running and passing plays. Defenders are constantly kept off balance because they can’t be sure that what they’re seeing is actually what’s taking place – and because if they take aggressive action to stop a particular type of play, Kubiak has a built-in mechanism for making them pay.

“They’re the ultimate play-action team,” Rosenfels explained. “They teach you to behave very similarly on run plays and pass plays, and it’s very easy to get fooled. There were times when I played there that the back judge would walk up and say, ‘Guys, I can’t tell when it’s a run and when it’s a pass – your play action’s that good.’ For example, the fullback on a pass play will still hit the linebacker as hard as he can, like he would [run-blocking]. You really keep the defense on their toes, ’cause everything looks the same.”

The Texans offense ideally is intended to keep defenses off-balance. They recognize that defensive linemen typically are more athletic than offensive linemen. You can either spend your draft resources trying to out athlete on the offensive line, or you try to scheme around that some by not having a one-dimensional offense that allows defenders to tee off on your offense.

Another key is to keep down and distance sane. All offenses say that they want to do that, but it is particular important, almost a religion, to the Texans due to the composition of their offensive line. This offense and offensive line works best when they are not predictably pass.

None of the guys on the Texans offensive line in recent years were on Mel Kiper’s draft besties list. Many were lower round draft picks or unheralded free agents. Their value to the Texans comes from athleticism and being able to move and work together, not just sheer size and strength. Their value comes from misdirection over just brute force, and that eventually they can wear down defensive lines, especially if they get a lead. If you talk to the linemen, they will tell you that run blocking is both fun and hard, and that they are dead tired after a long drive, but that this is harder on the defensive linemen because they aren’t typically used to playing against a majority zone blocking team that does it well.

There have been games prior to Phillips taking over the defense, where the Texans offense had to be more pass-oriented than their preference just to stay in games. That no lead was safe, and teams could score on the Texans pretty much at will. But ideally, you don’t want a season where Matt Schaub is going for 4770 yards and averaging almost 300 yards a game like he did in 2009. If that is happening with the Texans offensive scheme, that likely means the defense is terrible.

[As an aside, I want you to notice in that article the demands that are put on the pass targets in this offense. As the article notes, “The scheme succeeds partly because of painstaking preparation, beginning over the offseason and continuing in the days leading up to games, and requires skill-position players to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the offense. Receivers must learn not only their own routes but also those of their counterparts, because another Kubiak staple is to disguise plays by transposing players at the line of scrimmage.”

That is one of the challenges with incorporating a lot of inexperienced players at the wide receiver position. Can they learn the offense well enough for it to run at maximum efficiency for the pass? Seriously, if you haven’t read that article, please do. And if that is not enough, read my 2006 post about the installation of the offense from my old blog. Most of it is very on-point and some of it is hilariously optimistic. My name is no longer in the header but it is in the byline at the bottom. Blog posts are amazing time capsules.]

Game context. Run and pass is not in a vacuum.

In 2010, people complained that the Texans gave up on the run too early in games. And they did that sometimes because they got behind. That is what will happen when you have an all inexperienced secondary. In recent years, the complaint is that the Texans run too much, particularly in the second half of games against unfavorable fronts.

The ideal game plan for the Texans is to get an early lead through a balanced attack that takes advantage of defensive weaknesses, and then run it down the opponents throat in the second half of games. Thanks to an improved defense, the Texans were at the top of the league the last two years in time of possession. Though time of possession doesn’t necessarily equal wins, it is a formula that tends to work in the Texans favor. The quarterback that is sitting on the bench isn’t beating your team.

Here is a number that surprises a lot of people who think the Texans are a “run first” offense….

Do you know which team threw the ball the most in the first half of games on first down? Throwing on first down is typically seen as a more aggressive offensive play.

According to the Pro Football Reference Game Play Finder, the Patriots were number one, the Texans were number two. Most of the offenses that you think of as pass heavy tend to be on the top of the list. Most of the offenses that you tend to think as sucky run heavy tend to be on the bottom of the list:

Do you know what teams ran the ball the most on first down in the second half of games in 2012?

PFR Game Play Finder says Patriots top number of 1st down, second half runs, Texans tied for 6th with Green Bay and Chicago. Now the numbers reflect that the Patriots pace of play gets a ton of snaps in general, and that they still had a lot of passing snaps on first down but not nearly the same ratio as in the first half of games. The Texans go very run heavy in the second half of games in 2012. Here’s the raw numbers:

Now why is this the case? Texans had so many first half leads and actual good defense for most weeks they were using the second half of games to eat clock with the run, which they could often do.

Here’s the first down, second half passing numbers between the years 2007-2010. Schaub-Kubiak, with an inconsistent running game and a defense that could hold few leads. Very pass heavy on first down:

Just a game situation thing and not a scheme thing. You got the lead, you can afford to run and burn clock. You don’t have the lead, your defense sucks, you need to be more risk taking, eat less clock.

To semi-traumatize you and put these numbers in perspective, here’s the Carr-Kubiak 2006 numbers for first down play calls in the second half of games. Still a terrible defense that put them in holes, but by the end of the year having only one healthy option at QB and one you couldn’t trust:

Balance.

Ultimately, the Texans aspire for balance in their offensive scheme. I wish I had a dollar for every time Gary Kubiak or players talked in a post-game about trying to get balance in the offense to keep defenses guessing. Or not being happy getting pass heavy because he was behind in a game. Or talking about running the ball like crazy because they were on a roll. Or getting out of balance because of something they saw in the defense. Here’s just a few month selection:

TE Owen Daniels 1/11/13 quote: “You know, we’re spreading the ball around to a lot of people and it keeps defenses off balance and makes them have to be pretty conscious of a lot of different things going on. We’ll do what we do and hopefully we’ll stay balanced and things will work out that way.”

OC Rick Dennison 1/9/13 quotes: (on how the team can contain New England DT Vince Wilfork) “We just keep throwing things at him. Hopefully we can keep him off balance. One of the things we were successful at last weekend against the Bengals is the score was in our favor or relatively equal, so we can run-pass. Those are the best options. When you get to an all-pass, it makes it difficult for an offensive linemen when you have people as talented as (Cincinnati DT Geno) Atkins and certainly Wilfork.” (Steph note: The Wilfork plan didn’t really work. Obv.)

TE Owen Daniels 1/5/13 quote: “Absolutely. Any time you can contribute to a win, a playoff win, you have to feel good about that. I was fortunate to get some opportunities so I tried to make the most of the. It was one of those games where we were going to be running it, trying to stay balanced. Like you said, we were grinding it out there. We had to run it when everyone knew we were going to run it.”

HC Gary Kubiak 12/19/13 quote: “We want to be balanced, so, like the other day, I like the way we played. We ran for 180 and threw for 260. That’s where we want to be. When we’re doing those type of things, we’re usually staying on the field and helping our defense. (WR) Andre (Johnson) has been exceptional, (RB) Arian (Foster) has been there all year long. Arian is a workhorse-type of guy. We get (RB) Ben (Tate) back. I think that’s a good thing now that he’s kind of playing the way he’s capable of playing. Hopefully we can continue to do those type of things. That’s the key to our successful football team, being able to do some of those things and protecting the football along the way.”

LT Duane Brown 12/19/12 quote: (on how important it is for the Texans to run the ball effectively) “It means a lot. When you’re not one-dimensional, teams can’t really get a read on what you’re trying to do. For us, it all starts with the run game. We’re able to run the ball well, get teams keying on that, and it opens up a whole lot for our offense; and if you’re able to do both, stay balanced throughout the whole game, it opens up our whole playbook.”

WR Andre Johnson 12/19/12 quote: (on the balance of the Texans’ offense and using the play-action) “When we’re able to run the ball well, it just opens up everything else. It’s always been like that since (Head) Coach (Gary) Kubiak has been here. When they brought in this style of offense, whenever the run game is going, it just opens up everything else. Sometimes you may run the ball and you may not hit those big runs like you want to at first, but you may hit a few passes and you see the run game open up and then everything else becomes kind of easy. I think that’s the biggest thing for us is just getting our run game going. When we do that, we tend to win a lot of games and it just opens everything else up.”

QB Matt Schaub 12/19/12 quote: (on how great it is to have RB Arian Foster and WR Andre Johnson to have a balanced offense) “That’s what our offense is built on, is to be balanced. You look over the past few years and that’s when we’re playing our best. That’s when we’re playing our most efficient, is when we can run the football, be successful with that, couple that with our play action, our bootleg game, where we can take some shots down the field and be effective and keep our third downs manageable and then we’re converting on those. That all leads to us scoring points.”

OK, you get the point.

Yes. The Texans offense is devastatingly efficient when both the run and passing game is going. Balance. Does it work better when the run game gets going early? Sure. Is that necessary? No. In 2007-2009, the passing game got into many shootouts without a consistent running game. Wins were a struggle because the defense blew.

If you overgeneralize about the Texans as being “run first” because you saw some poor showings against Green Bay and the Patriots, then you are mistaking poor football games for scheme.

In other words, which “run first” team has a wide receiver who caught almost 1600 yards worth of passes and a quarterback, when healthy, consistently throws for over 4000 yards? They don’t. The Texans are not a run first team.

Ideally, balance. If opponents take away a part of their game, they have an offense that can go pass or run heavy at times–sometimes they are successful at that, sometimes not so much. They have won shootouts. They have won grind out games. They have played from ahead. They have played way too many games prior to Wade Phillips trying to catch up from behind. They can play different styles of offensive football but they prefer balance.

In other words, this is a +2500 word semi-rant about semantics.

It is not completely unrelated to conservative/aggressive play calling. Have some additional thoughts on that which may be surprising to you. That I think will be in a future post because this one is too long. Your thoughts? (And don’t be surprised if they show up in a future post because I’ll do that sometimes).

60 Responses

Well, I guess I must be one of those fans that’s only been “sorta” watching the Texans. Who cares how the ball gets into the endzone, just as long as it gets there? Last year, I sorta watched the offense regularly implode on trips inside the opponent’s 20 yard line, particularly late in the season. I then sorta watched a playoff game where D. Manning returned the opening kickoff to the 12 yard line and then I sorta watched 2 feeble running plays, an incomplete pass and a field goal. I sorta watched a golden opportunity for the Texans to take early control of a playoff game against a tough opponent on the road get wasted. Fancy metrics aside, the eye test is still the more reliable measurement…..

You forgot the two pass plays at the beginning of the Patriots playoff game, one that hit James Casey square in the hands and was dropped. Aggressive plays. Didn’t work. As I said, from a red zone perspective, they are very run focused on purpose, and more times than not worked OK, and is not out of line for what NFL teams do.

Well at least you started your piece with a media bash instead of the’silly fan” intro you chron writers all eventually catch from McLame. What is about that MO and the Chron sports page ?
And BTW- no. I read elsewhere alott too- most of us do, uh have to. And I’d say if any paper has formatted Texans mythology, including the run first thingy, it would be the McLame lead Chron. Throw in a healthy dose of redundant innaccurate statement like the “complexity” of the zone blocking and these somehow unlike any other team “complicated Texan super routes” and away we go.
Nationally, I’d wager the offense is recognized fairly as a play action oreinted system – almost always. They do a good job of giving this offense a fair review. A big difference is they do not hesitate to highlight the very much earned rasberries as well – The embarrassment of the GB and games brought good ard questions to the stage,but aroud her with you guys it was biz as usual. BTW- the guest from Cold Hard Facts tried to tell you – maybe next time we will listen. Dapt oradjust- playing those teams like Jacksonvlle is, well delusional. Adapt or die.
So as for the “balanced attack” thingy, well that is one I’d also wager is in fact a real millstone around the neck – at times. The problem remains that We insist upon that regardless of the opponent and circumstances at hand.
Will never forget, 2011 maybe even ’10, up 17 to zip -on the road- at Oakland with a first half running game that was clipping at an yep,unbelievable plus 6.6 YPC. They had, get this,no middle D. Yep, we came out throwing half two and didn’t run a play until the mid fourth. Lost. Post game explananton- “Well, our numbers were getting a bit outta balance i thought”. Been noticing ever since – it does not matter if the oppoent is staring two Rookie CBs on crutches or is the best in the biz against a pass – we are gonna be ‘Balanced”

It is the dogged adherance to the balance that i find rather unbalanced.

As far as “mythology” – i find that a crown best worn best by the chron – which seems to confuse PR with journalism. Texans have some good aspects but some notable isssues -like any team. I have never seen a big city rag so content with aren’t we great PR in my years. Only the chron, or perhaps the Tri City Bugle would come out with an ” Just wait,Ole Joe will get ’em back into shape ” in response to, well.. never mind. With that one i realzed your metamorphisis was complete.
That is why i read, in part, elsewhere alot too. And say no, the national media does a petty job with the Texans – shoot, exactly who are you quoting here – again ? Not J MCLame.

Schaub is not an elite QB. He isn’t even a top 10 QB, but there are plenty of guys who he is better than. He does not have to weakest arm in the league. Plus, having a strong arm doesn’t guarantee sucess (Vick and Cutler).

So you read the whole thing. The short version was the headline. Some people like reading the reasons. But as I said, if you want two paragraph blog posts, there are many, many of other places to go on the web. Not everyone’s cup of tea here.

Look at what the Texans did in the red zone and particularly first and goal. EVERY first and goal the entire season from 7 yards or closer was a running play. You think Belichek knew that when the Texans wasted scoring chances in the first quarter?

Yes in the first half or in blow outs the Texans look very balanced. But then the chips are down Kubiak goes into a shell. Now in fairness part of it is because th pe most overpaid QB in the NFL generally has the deer in the headlights lookin that situation. L

Whether Kubiak or Schaub is the chicken or the egg is debatable. But this team can’t achieve its goals playing that way.

Very good post Steph. I enjoyed it and was not to long. People have laughed at me a lot when I say the Texans were not a run first offense. Now you have given me something to point them to with good facts. People tend to forget the pre-Arian years where Shaub had to pass for the Texans to have a chance to win any game, and did a good enough job that the talking heads on radio and tv were saying that he was a top 10 qb. As for last year I believe that Shaub was not fully healthy from the start. If you really look at his play the rollouts were not the same and he did not get to the edge as quickly. Hopefully he is back to his old self this year. Keep up the great work.

Once again, excellent post. Everytime I read one of your posts I ask myself why I bother reading posts from other writers. Cant’s wait for the season to start. I will throw this at you…. I realize that we are arguing the whole run first team concept here, but I am very excited about the addition of Greg Jones, and I think he will be talked about as the key transition as we start our playoff game after our first round bye.

I love the way you use numbers to really support your analysis. It seems like everywhere I look, there’s always some ridiculous article about the Texans that’s based entirely on speculation. The lead is always something like, “Schaub and Kub are terrible, the playbook is stale and archaic, and will never make it”, it’s usually followed up by a 3 minute YouTube montage of cherry picked Schaub bloopers, and makes terrible predictions that Indy is going to reclaim the division this year. As if.

Your articles are not only glaringly more accurate than others, but they also provide insight on various elements of the Texans style of play that I often didn’t know or realize.

Side note: I really can’t stress enough how much I love what you’re doing. You keep asking us as readers to tell you what kind of articles we want to read – this is it. The articles that dispel stupid myths about the Texans fallacies by exposing the truth hidden in numbers and buried behind quotes others just take out of context. Please, keep writing articles like this. They, more than anything else, get me super pumped up for the upcoming season. And personally, I wouldn’t worry about the word count. If the article were condensed by even 1/5 or a quarter, it wouldn’t be as in depth as it is. And while I can only speak for myself, I’d rather read 2500 – 3000 words of reliable and good analysis than 600 – 1000 words about how Ed Reed might have concealed his hip injury or how Arian Foster “isn’t elite anymore.” You’re covering the stories that no one else will. In a huge crowd of “experts” you’re one of the small handful of real journalists covering the team.

Thank you, Matt. I’m not a fan of manufactured stories. You know, the ones intended to create a pretend debate, like on eliteness or top 100 lists or just goofy stuff. Not my taste. If you talked to players about a lot of this stuff, they’d give you a version of c’mon man.

Decent exploration of the topic. I think this is one theory that doesn’t always match up with what our eyes see, thus the controversy.
Must commend you on actually siting and linking to others’ work. You do it WAY more than anyone else I’ve read.

Would like to see you turn your stats eye on whether balance for balance’s sake exists at the Texans. I too have seen many games where we get on a hot streak with the run, so we stop running just to do badly at passing. Keep the other team honest, yes, but if they can’t stop the play, that’s when we should exploit it. I have never seen the Texans game plan against a true week link, like teams used to do to with KJ at corner. Does Kubiack think it’s wrong, or unsportsmanlike, to do this???
Would love your insight into this.

It’s really telling that you used the quotes from just before the humiliation in the New England play off game. By being predictably balanced, the play scheme evolves into a recognizable pattern. It seemed like New England’s defense knew every play the Texans were going to call.

They threw in the end zone. They failed to execute. I don’t care what the play calls are…if you drop an in your hands TD, then you are having issues. Personally I think the issues with the Patriots were more matchup issues on both sides of the ball. You don’t want to be thin at ILB, and Wilfork is a load.

I believe New England had a cornerback playing that they had picked up off the street two weeks earlier. And the other corner was a second string guy. I was happy with the Texans season overall but would love to see Kubiak make adjustments before the game gets out of hand. I would bet that stats show the Texans are the best team in the league when playing from 21 points down these last few years ?

Comments coming from fans who only “sorta watch” the Texans and this blog is only for “serious fans”. A little full of yourself aren’t you? It’s just a blog Stephanie.

Appreciate your attempt at putting facts behind comments but we all (even the sorta watchers and the little bit less than serious fans) know that you can spin a select set of statistics to serve a desired outcome.

Actually, my “sorta watch” comment related to content providers–thinking mostly national writers who write 32 teams. It is hard to do that and be accurate as to all 32. How do I write about this myth without acknowledging how common it has become? I could pretend it doesn’t annoy me in its ubiquity and inaccuracy, but I’m just talking to y’all like I’d talk to my buddies. Real.

And to write you need to know your audience. This is a niche blog not intended for casual fans. That is just a fact not a judgment. Casual fans don’t want to read the reasons for things. Aggregation blogs are good for casual fans…they can read a brief summary and if they want more detail, they go to the source article.

But you don’t have to put me in my place. I know this is just a blog, and a blog post. One where you preferred to attack me and stats without refuting anything I said at all. How am I wrong? How did this not persuade you? The numbers say what they say. I like to read facts behind analysis so I write that way and the numbers are only one part.

Look, I put some effort into these blog posts. People may like them, may not. How everything works. But they are free. Complaining waaaaah too many words in my free stuff is hilarious to me. Don’t like it, go someplace else.

I don’t think Schaub’s arm is weaker than say Joe Montana’s was. Neither has rocket launchers for arms but it’s not absolutely necessary for that offense. A nice strong side armed throw doesn’t work, especially when coupled with not being able to read defenses.

I more or less, more when they have control of the game, less when they’re behind say a Green Bay or New England, like the offense the way it is. Having a second target will prove to be very helpful. Having the other team’s DC scratching his head trying to figure out how to cover everyone with a single defensive back will be a nice luxury, and the offense has plenty of time to find a way to be as high powered as the best of the NFL, about a whole season.

I’ve never thought of them as a run first team but they do to me seem to have a tendency to run on the first play of the first offensive possession. That’s a little annoying.

As far as the whole being unpredictable on offense discussion goes all I can add is there are 2 types of plays where salesmanship helps, and the Texans don’t run many of these, the draw, and the screen pass to the tailback. I know they run screens to the tight end Owen Daniels, and wide out Andre Johnson, but they hardly look like screens, and you don’t end up seeing marauding defensive linemen going oops we over ran the play. On the other hand that’s exactly the type of play I might script against the Texan’s defense on the first play of the first offensive possession. 😈

Oh, I post here because it light on the wallet, and as comfortable as the Dew Drop Inn, not because I take myself seriously.

(It feels like I should order a beer before I start this comment. And I mean that as a compliment.)

So the Texans are NOT a run first team? Well, yes and no. They do have a good run game. The majority of their passes are play action passes. The play action pass depends on establishing the threat of running the ball. So if you took out all the run and play action pass plays what are you left with? Third and long, and pocket lint. Right?

But you also correctly point out that the Texans are more balanced than I think. And sometimes even a pass first team. So the whole run first thing is just an illusion.

Ah! But that’s the whole point, isn’t it? To create the illusion of a ‘run first team’ so the play action will work?

It helps the company propaganda that Kubiak puts out, that the Texans happen to have a recent history of running the ball well. He is the guru who repeats the oft espoused mantra “We’re a run first team.”

The head coach is the source of the myth, and I thought about that and by not saying that a long time ago it looks like I’m piling on a bit, or stealing ideas after the exposure. There’s a thought that statement repetition is a cult tactic and one can ask is this done deliberately to get the opposing defensive coaching staff to drink the cool aide, or to bandage one’s own self doubts. Y’all have fun with that because that’s not the sort of thing I care to trouble my day with.

There was a time when they couldn’t do anything right on offense. If they were to shoot first, ask about balance later, and then run, they’d be a shoot and run team.

Lots of good comments here. But I guess some of it does boil down to how we each define a “run first” team.
If your definition of run first is the Earl Cambell era Oilers, then it is ridiculous to suggest the Texans are that kind of team. But if your definition is any run and play action pass team… then you may have a point.
If my ONLY choices to describe the 2012 Texans are “run first” or “passing team”, then I guess I’d have to say “run first”. They weren’t the Dan Fouts era Chargers, right? But it would be more accurate to say they are a well balanced team.

The redzone thing is also interesting. Foster had 42 carries inside the ten. Schaub had 23 pass attempts inside the ten. The closest QB/RB combo is Ridley with 31 rushes and Brady with 44 attempts.
Schaub’s redzone completion % drops to 53.3% from the 20 yard line to the 10 yard line, but rises to 60.9% inside the 10.
His QB rating drops to 86.3 between the 20 and 10 yard lines, but rises to 104.9 (!) inside the 10. What does that tell you?

And now while I temporarily fall into the trap of taking myself seriously, RD does have a valid point. People can and now often do, slapping the face of good science, cherry pick their statistics to support their point of view.

I don’t think that’s what you did here Steph, and statistics are just a just a bag of numbers to me anyway, to be ground into some type of norm, like coffee beans from who knows where in some monster supermarket chain.

I am guilty of sorta watching myself as I wait for a commercial break to intuitively check the doneness of what ever I’m smoking and the state of the micro timber pile. I guess I’m a serious fan sorta watching when it’s windy outside.

I use some of the national posts on the Texans to give me a less local perspective. Ive noticed they tend to mirror whether the Texans have won or lost and the quality of opponent. For example, after beating the Ravens the Texans were Super Bowl bound to the Super Bowl the Ravens won. It’s like trying to predict the hurricane season with yesterday’s slack tide, and the water temperature at the North Pole, or the retail stock bounce after Black Friday news.

Your “sorta watch” commentary has been taken by several responders (via their own words) as a comment directed towards local Texans fans. You responded to me that it was directed at over exposed national writers. Fair enough but also fair is that if you meant national writers perhaps you should have been more clear? I think I read in your bio that you are a practicing lawyer by trade (or have a law degree), and if so, you would know that the responsible party (at fault) with an ambiguity is the writing party.

And what’s with the “you don’t have to put me in my place” comment? I wasn’t putting you in your place (not even sure what or where your place is). If anyone has tried to put folks in their place it’s you. You have responded to comments with (paraphrasing) “this blog is for serious fans only”, or “if you don’t like it, go somewhere else”. You seem far too intelligent not to see your own obvious hypocrisy.

The point of my comments was simply to say that throwing a few facts out to your readers doesn’t prove or disprove whether the Texans are a run first team or not.

As well, what is your definition of “run first”, does that mean simply running on first down, does it mean run when situation calls for pass, etc? I don’t think you can make conclusions such as you have without clearly defining (where it needs to be defined and “run-first” certainly does) what you are trying to prove or disprove.

For now I’ll throw out a few simplistic stats such as the Texans passed 554 times while being passed against 581 times. The Texans ran 508 times against 390 runs by our opponents. Said another way the Texans ran 48% of the time vs our opponents only 40%. Or as another stat, we were 18th in pass attempts in the league vs 4th in rush attempts.

Personally, I don’t know how to accurately measure “run-first” from a statistical standpoint given what I believe “run-firsts” meaning is; how often a team runs vs passes when the down, distance, time, and score wouldn’t otherwise statistically dictate a pass or a run. Meaning, do you “run-first” when you are otherwise indifferent. By removing the bias of “having” to pass or run in obvious passing or running situations you get a more meaningful definition of whether a team “runs-first”, relative to the league, as all teams have situations which absolutely dictate that they’ll be passing or running on a particular play.

You seem to define “run-first”, although you don’t come out directly and say so, that it means running on first down or in the first half. We can agree to disagree but if true, those seem to be too literal and therefore misguided definitions. What about 2nd, 3rd or 4th downs? What about the 2nd half? You’re missing about 83% of the game (if not including 4th downs).

As for your last comment to me, “don’t like it, go someplace else”. Well my answer to that is “no”. If you can’t take a healthy critique, even if it doesn’t agree with you, perhaps you shouldn’t write a blog?

If I see something that I believe (and you do believe I have a say so?) is inaccurate or misguided with regards to my Texans – given that so many people (both readers and writers) believe “if I read it in a blog it must be true” – I’m going to say something recognizing that some may agree or disagree. After all, I don’t “sorta watch” the Texans as I am a “serious” fan.

Ok, this comment at least has some football content that doesn’t really dispute what I said but picks at the edges, along with being crabby with how I wrote it. My only defense is that there is no way I can write anything that doesn’t strike someone the wrong way. Just how words work, particularly without the benefit of facial expression, tone and knowing you personally.

One guy complains I used too many words. You complain I just throw out a few facts. My comment regarding “serious fans” is that casual fans don’t care about 2500+ words on offensive scheme. If you do, great. My niche “just a blog” as you put it is intended for those who like this sort of thing. But I am certain that there are also serious fans who don’t like me and my blog and in America you have the free will not to read it.

The main point I had was that the Texans offense is one of balance and you cant look at run/pass ratios without the context of game situations…that is, you tend to throw a ton more when your defense stinks and no lead is safe versus when you have a big lead, your defense can hold that lead, and you want to chew clock with the run later in games.

But ultimately, using the shorthand of calling the Texans offense “a run first offense” is not accurate. The first down stats were just added because it might be surprising to some….Relative to league, throwing early in games on first down is not typically what ground and pound, conservative, “run first” teams do. Ultimately, Kubiak would reject that characterization.

Over time the scheme is very situation based like most sensible ones but it is undeniably intended to be balanced.

As for me, I prefer criticism of what I write to be focused on the content and not about me. You tell me I’m full of myself, and I’m going to tell you that you dont know me and I’d prefer to talk about football and not me. And I’m going to not think kind things in your direction because I’m a human being from Texas who isn’t getting paid to take bleep off of anyone. I’m sure you understand. Texas.

I’m good with football analysis talk, not so much people being impolite to me for something they get for free. Not so much with you but with the guy who showed up crabby that wah, too many words.

But ultimately, my response to anyone who doesn’t like me or the precision or the length of posts or stats or a just few facts or whatever they are getting for free through my effort is to find writing they do enjoy. I’d prefer for Texans fans to be their cool selves, talk football, feel comfortable chatting here, and perhaps we got off on the wrong foot.

And for what it’s worth, you did not point out any inaccurate, misleading things about this post. You took bits out of the context of the whole, which was at least a better critique than generally insulting me by saying I’m spinning stats. If you can make the case that it is totally accurate for national writers to call the Texans offensive scheme “run first” as opposed to balanced, go for it. Talk football, not me.

Personally I think it is a no-brainer that this is not a run-first offensive scheme. I just wrote this post because I’ve heard outsiders say it so much as a shorthand but only recently. And I guess you think so too but I’m not sure why. Do you think this is a run first offense? Or are you just not liking the case I made that the offense is intended to be balanced? Or something else?

RD’s premiss, that the term “run first”, is not clearly defined, and his use of statistics to muddy an already turbid torrent, poignantly places the term “run first” into the Lewis Carol kingdom of Leprechauns and Unicorns, thus unintentionally supporting Stephanie’s premiss that “run first” is a myth.

Quod Erat Demonstrandum

😈

While down and distance are important, I think when it gets dark I’ll go outside and look for UFOs.

What if we were to agree that when a team run’s before it passes it is momentarily a “run first” team, and then when it doesn’t, it’s not, or it’s changed it’s mind?

Surely before the invention of the forward pass, all teams were run first teams, back when American football was played for the pantheon of gods, Titans and Zeus. Perhaps the historical accuracy of Homer’s stats can be questioned. Doh!

I got your point the first time I read the article. It’s hard to believe some of these responders have ever watched any football. The reason the season went downhill is because of one player and his name’s NOT Shaub. It’s Cushing. His value is right up there with Watt’s. The defense’s fall lead to our offense’s inability to be balanced. I just don’t get how a quarterback can win, what was it, 13 of 14 starts in the NFL and be so vilified as a bad QB. Middle linebacker is not the place to be shallow. It completely changed our systems on both sides of the ball at just the wrong time of the season. Billichek ate our lunch twice with our weakness up the middle. With Reed/Swearinger plus Cushing’s healthy return the ship should be righted. It would also be nice if Winston would take the minimum. Ciao, baby.

When Cushing went out last year, I know a lot of folks felt all next man up but Wade Phillips was as down as you ever saw him. He talked about the flexibility of what Cushing lets you do. /and that was already a thin spot after Ryans trade.

Personally, I felt the same way I did when Schaub got hurt in 2011. Lots of good teams out there, but Super Bowls are about key players being healthy at right time. Even the GB team that won despite tons of injuries still had Aaron Rodgers, and he’s special. If his concussion worse that year, done.

Dang it steph?! You started so well. I thought it was a technical reading but when you drop words like “sucky”, it losses credit. anyhow thank you for issuing solid football x’s and o’s. I pray you keep up the insiders view bc lance is no longer on the chron staff.

I need to look up your observation about empty backfield. I know they don’t run that formation much, about league average, and it makes me cat-around-rocking-chairs nervous when they do, but just observationally, it seems like they hit a lot of those. Need to find those numbers.

I think there are going to be significant challenges again on offense this year. It is easier running the offense when you aren’t both teaching it and focusing on executing it at the same time. Lots of unproven WRs to depend on, along with the uncertainty on the offensive line again.

I’ve been watching football since I was 4 years old, at least consciously. They still played well enough because J.J. Watt picked up his game and Wade Phillips made good adjustments, but the last 4 games and their result had many factors, not all of which can be tangibly measured. That’s why they actually play the games, other wise Vegas would pick the Super Bowl winner every year.

Joining the party kinda late. But great read per usual. I don’t know what bug is what up orifice, (Cough RD), but this is a solid piece with a point of view that is validated with information based on circumstances, that have actually happened.

You owe no apologies to anyone, as all you need do is take a look at the catalogue of entries by you and then by any other writer on this website who writes in the Texans know, to know, that you provide more up to date, non simply headline stories than anyone. There is nothing wrong with disagreeing, but it need be on the subject matter at hand.

If you don’t like Julia Roberts, don’t go see her movies. Don’t complain if you do.

I have felt the pass first mentality with the Texans, well, forever. I do think that it sometimes makes Kubiak predictable in his play calls and I wish they would give that duty back to Dennison.

The thing that really gets me hot is when he calls for an empty back field. I think it is the worst timing I have ever seen when he does. All teams need to load the line with targets sometimes and leave the backfield free. However, Kubiak does it in instances that let the defense have the upper hand early in the game or in otherwise inappropriate situations.

The defense ends up pinning their ears, with no guessing that a pass rush is needed and provides more pressure than Schaub can handle. It’s fine when it’s 3 and 15 and an obvious pass is coming. But when a run is possible in gaining the first down, why show your cards?

The short passing game does is in some ways become equal to run plays.

Schaub’s inability to genuinely provide a bootleg threat is really detrimental to the offense. He needs to just go for it once in a while. Once a game. Just gain a yard. Or get back to the line of scrimmage. He has to keep the defense honest there. And let’s face it. He fools no one and there is more than likely laughter when mentioned to defenses the probability he may run. Needs improvement.

I too believe Schaub, with improvement, can get it done. He has the mind and arm to run the offense. Jeff George had a cannon. It got him where?

All in all Kubiak has provided a respectable NFL defense to this team. With Wade Phillips doing the same on the other side of the ball, that leaves J. Marciano as the man, as one of your articles have alluded to, who needs to once again show he has what it takes to coach an elite special teams unit in the NFL.

Looks like I almost missed a decent conversation this weekend. I think the big thing some people are getting hung up on is what exactly “run first” means. It’s easy to look at how good Arian Foster is, see his TD numbers and his carries, and decide that Houston must be a run first team, or he couldn’t be as good as he is. Compare Foster’s standing among running backs with Schaub’s standing among QBs, and it makes sense that Houston should be a “run first” team. But I think if they were a true “run first” team, Foster would struggle more.

The Texans are a balanced team. Because they work to make every play appear the same, and run play action so well, Houston is able to keep defenses off balance and help all aspect of the offense. Is that really a running play, or is it play action? Whoops, there goes Foster. Houston actually started off with more passes than runs last season. Of the 18 games they played, only five started with a running play. 13 started not only with passes, but multiple passes – 2, 3 or 4 passes in a row. Shouldn’t a “run first” team literally run the ball first? In case anybody is wondering, the five run first games were wins against Baltimore and Buffalo, and losses against Indy and New England (twice).

As for the length of the post, I love it. I like to read. I like when people support their statements with stats, facts, and links to other writers, as you do. There has also been a lot of lengthy discussion on this topic, so I’m getting in lots of bonus weekend reading (which is good, I’m almost finished with all the “Game of Thrones” books). Thanks for bringing the football content on a slow week in the NFL.

Thanks. I also think the run first view can also be a matter of imbalance in the league. There are a lot of teams that are very pass happy because 1. That is what they do and are good at (Patriots) or 2. They can’t run the ball and their strength is passing (Green Bay); or 3. Their defense blows and they can’t run the ball anyway (Cowboys). I’m using those teams as examples but they aren’t the only ones. It’s become a very pass heavy league, and in that context, even striving for balance is an anomaly. That balance will look very run heavy because many teams are struggling with being able to run and win, and this is an era where it is hard to have a consistently dominant defense. The rules very much favor a pass-focused team. The Texans striving for balance in that context can be a difficult matchup because you can’t just focus on stopping one element of the team. Balanced teams are difficult to play as the Texans learned last year against the Patriots–the 2012 Patriots could actually run the ball too, and teams had to respect that. Having a credible run defense is essential in playing those teams because otherwise teams that have 1. A good offense; 2. Can run the ball can just close out games by running teams off the field. Unfortunately for the 2012 Patriots, that team got unhealthy at the wrong time, and the Ravens got healthy at a good time.

I agree on length. I enjoy the conversations after the blog post too because it is like an extra blog post. I prefer my Twitter feed for quick hit observations about things and prefer to use the blog to start conversations about things I think should be discussed in more depth.

Now how many words is it???
Great conversation with minimal name calling is what draws most of us.

Another topic for you that I expected to see done by so many this offseason, especially the boys at BRB…

Was last year a statistical case for the Wade Phillips sophmore slump or not? Obviously JJ had a decent year, but Cushing was taken out early leaving a huge non-flexible hole in the middle. There was a ton of speculation before last season, but no follow up.

I think the short version of your question is certainly Cushing’s injury and the injuries to his replacements hurt their performance by the end of the year.

But here’s a number that surprised me when I saw it. 2011’s defense was ranked 6th by Football Outsiders measures. 2012’s defense was ranked 3rd–4th against the pass, 5th against the run. The “weighted” numbers that tend to discount early year performance still have the Texans defense ranked 5th.

So basically, I think all those sophomore slump people can stick it. Do you think they are typing a retraction?

Texans can try to be a run first team but it will only be to the left! They have been effective to the right since they gutted the right side of their line two year agao by letting Winston go and losing Brisiel to free agency.

Just because the Texans aren’t the top of the league running on first down doesn’t mean they’re not run first. I think you made a very good point about the balance of our offense. When it is working like it should, it is a thing of beauty. But Kubiak often times doesn’t realize soon enough when the run isn’t working, but still tries to run, many times putting us in a 3rd and long situation (if we’re lucky, he WON’T call a draw that gets 2, maybe 3 yards).

Too many times we’re running when we still need to pass. If you’re trying to burn clock late in a game and you don’t get a first down, you’re not burning much clock. The Denver game comes to mind. We jump out to a sizable lead, then Kubiak thinks “Oh, that’s enough points. Our defense won’t let them catch up”. Granted, I don’t think we need to be taking downfield shots at that time, but I do think we still need to maintain balance on offense. Imagine how much the defense would be thrown off their heels if we did a straight drop back on 1st down when it’s clock eating time for Kubiak.

I just think the Texans need to change their philosophy when their current one doesn’t work. If the run game isn’t working very early on in a game against NE or GB, or it’s clear we won’t stop their quarterback, we need to pass to set up the run. I’m not saying abandon the run completely, but pass to free up some running room. If we can then get our running game going, then PA will once again be open.

If the Texans run game is even half way working, third and long shouldn’t happen. Usually, the Texans are very good at not getting run stuffs–the offense is designed to get a couple of yards out of each run, so that there is never an obvious passing down. The problem was the run stuff numbers were very peculiar last year, and it is was the untimely penalties and drops that made third and long something too common for a team that values keeping down and distance sane.

I think the Texans know what they want to do. Some games it is easier to execute it than others.

Game context helps. Texans had a ton of early leads, didn’t have too many games where they wer forced to be one dimensional in their offense because their defense was good. First down, in the first half is when the teams don’t have a strategic advantage of lead. It is considered a traditional running down. In the second half of games, when you have a lead as a good team, strategicly it increases incentives to run. Like the Patriots and Texans did.

And my entire argument was NOT based on that one stat. Did you check out the links/quotes? I could have found hundreds of similar quotes on balance.

Are you making the case that opponent run differential means “run first team?” I’m not seeing it.

My question is would it be smart for the Texans to have a sub-package that is more pass heavy in situations that call for it? Ie down by more than two scores or two minute drill. I’m a huge fan of the the play action attack but I feel that if you can stop the Texans on first down for no or negative yardage, it creates a quagmire that is difficult for the offense to get the first down.

Also what happened to that ‘muddle’ huddle or ‘sugar’ huddle that Kubrick was kicking around a couple of games during the middle of last season? It seemed to me to be successful against defenses.

They have various pass heavy formations…but last two seasons have been challenging in terms of WRs knowing the offense…either due to injury, newness with the team. Sugar huddle is always an option. I think they like it as a change of pace.

If can establish the run early I see no problem in being a “run first team”. I think its been given a bad rap in this pass happy league lately. A run first team like Minny made the playoffs with a way below average QB and WR core.

It seems that the real issue here is that you deem the term “run-first” to be a negative. There is no doubt that the Texans are a run first team, and there is nothing wrong with that. Yes, they do throw the ball frequently as well, and it is the effectiveness of the zone scheme that makes that possible. Arian Foster ripping defenses a new * is much more likely an option than Schaub working over a secondary with his fantastic arm talent. For some reason you associate running the ball with bad offense, and that is not the case at all. In fact, why do you even have to put a label on the offense (i.e. “run-heavy”, “pass-heavy”)? Why can it not be just a good, balanced offense? That is an issue with all of the media though