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The Global Forest Model estimates the impact of forestry activities (afforestation, deforestation and forest management) on biomass and carbon stocks. By comparing the income of managed forest (difference of wood price and harvesting costs, income by storing carbon in forests) with income by alternative land use on the same place, a decision of afforestation or deforestation is made. As G4M is spatially explicit (currently on a 0.5° x 0.5° resolution which is brought down to 30"x30" for Europe already). The model can use external information (like wood prices, prescribed land-use change from GLOBIOM) from other models or data bases, which guarantee food security and land for urban development or account for disturbances As outputs, G4M produces estimates forest area change, carbon sequestration and emissions in forests, impacts of carbon incentives (e.g. avoided deforestation) and supply of biomass for bio-energy and timber. NPPForest Cover TemperaturePrecipitation Estimated NPP Soil The Global Forestry Model G4M - from NPP to C Sequestration

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Deforestation 2050 under BAU Losses under BAU by 2050 will be 300-500 mio ha Tropical deforestation is considered the second largest source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC, 2007) and is expected to remain a major emission source for the foreseeable future (MEA, 2005) the net effect of all deforestation is basically almost an increase of 20 per cent additional emissions from human activity going into the atmosphere and feeding into climate change. deforestation is to blame for about one and a half billion tons of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere every year for the past 15 years (GCP). To the left we see the picture of tropical Africa now and in 2100 under BAU (the more red the less tropical forest, www.geo-bene.eu/?q=node/1653) Source: Kindermann et al. 2006

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Cumulative deforestation 2000-2050 caused by land-use change according to the different scenarios. Global Deforestation Trends BEPlus similar to BAU BE2010 on same high level because of unrestricted deforestation RED keeps deforestation at present level

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Cumulative land-use change and net forest cover change (managed + unmanaged forest area) caused by additional bioenergy production under the BiodivRED scenario (compared to the 2010 level of bioenergy production) Land Use Change – Effect of Adding BE, Biodiv & RED – rel to BAU Net gain of total forest area due to restriction of deforestation Protection of biodiversity within pristine and other types at the costs of grassland and savannah (which is mostly located in the southern hemisphere)

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most of the loss of unmanaged forest takes place in the tropical areas of South America, Africa and Asia Loss of pristine (unmanaged) forest as a proxy for BE production on Biodiversity Cumulative loss of area of unmanaged forest 2000-2050 in different regions under the BAU scenario Cumulative loss of area of unmanaged forest 2000- 2050 in different regions under the BEPlus RED scenario the loss of unmanaged forest is not only considerably smaller but also more evenly distributed from a global perspective Regional Effects by Adding BE, Biodiv, RED - Unmanaged Forest rel to BAU

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GHG emissions from total land use 2000- 2050 under the different scenarios GHG Emissions by Scenarios Under the BE2010 scenario, the bioenergy use is small compared to the other scenarios, and the GHG emissions are the highest, 8,091 Mt CO2/year. The GHG emissions are lower under the BAU and BEPlus scenarios, where the bioenergy use is more extensive. Lowest GHG emissions can be achieved under the RED scenarios

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Water consumption for agriculture 2000- 2050 under the different scenarios Agricultural Water Demand by Scenarios All scenarios show increased demand Lowest restriction on forest and biodiversity conservation show less water need Higher restriction implies less land available for eg food production = intensification

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The demand for bioenergy will be high and will increase competition for land Bioenergy production is a significant but not the major driver of forest loss Avoiding large-scale deforestation is possible, even under expanded bioenergy production. Unmanaged forest will be lost under all scenarios but under the RED scenarios the loss is only half of the loss under the BAU scenario GHG emissions may be substantially reduced by minimizing deforestation Minimization of deforestation may have negative impacts on other natural ecosystems The more forest and biodiversity one would like to be conserved, the less land will be available for food production The more conservation and protection, the higher the need for optimization and intensification Various policy areas must be coordinated to ensure sustainable use of resources Future studies need to go into the details identified here Summary & Discussion & Conclusions