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Winter outlook 2012-13

Early start to the season is expected with October and November storms anticipated for the southern and central Rockies. Many weak El Nino Falls showed above-normal snowfall for this area. Also, the Northwest could see normal to above-normal moisture in the Fall, meaning good snow build up in the mountains. However, as the jet splits in the winter, the intensity and frequency of events will lower and so will the amount of snowfall. Cold will surge early south into the Rockies but expected to shift east during the winter.

Busier Winter Season Expected in 2012-2013 for the East and Southern Rockies

The 2012-2013 Winter Season is expected to be a busy year, especially the East which had very little snowfall when compared to last year. Last year was also a mild winter for many areas extending from the northern Plains to the Northeast. After a record-breaking March, we stepped into a summer that so far has not let up with intense heat and drought impacting the center of the nation and severe weather in the North. We believe that these past events will impact the weather for this coming Fall and Winter Season.

For the East, snowfall may average above normal across the mid-Atlantic into southern New England. We believe that snowfall will average closer to normal for the interior Northeast through northern New England. The Southeast can be wetter than normal with cooler temperatures. The stormtrack may be dominated by the southern branch the first part of the season, until the northern jet increases in strengthen with more opportunities for phasing mid- to late season. The question still remains how much blocking sets up this year.

For the Central U.S.
For the northern and central Plains, snowfall is expected to be below normal with near- to above-normal temperatures. With a weak El Nino, there is too much variability to make a call farther east into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. 1977-78 was a snowy season in Chicago with snow amounts over 80 inches, but in 2006 snowfall was in the 20s, both weak El Nino events. Strong El Ninos are drier for the Midwest and Ohio Valley, so we will allow for near normal in this region for now. The southern Plains may end up below normal with occasional shots of cold behind bigger East Coast systems.