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"Mr. Castro and the people directly around him are likely waiting to see what kind of agitation the U.S. may be trying to ramp up on the island," Mr. Sabatini said. "It could be they don't want to rush a new guy into the presidency after all these years if Washington is on the verge of ramping up this agitation."

Mr. Sabatini said Mr. Trump's Cuba policy may be a "political delivery" to anti-Castro Cuban-Americans — like Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio — who wanted to see a stronger stand against Cuba and who have long been a critical voting bloc in a critical swing state.