Villain is 15/13 player with 4.5% overall 3bet. His fold to cbet is low at 37% and I went for a float induce because I didn't feel like I was getting 3 streets of value out of worse. River is then horrible and I feel like nothing worse is calling me and his range is suddenly skewed towards strong hands that beat me or way worse.

Maybe betting 3 streets just smaller size would work better? I don't valuetown myself so hard against AQ AT, KJs etc (which is what I'm slightly worried about) He might be able to call with worse.... FD+A or Q, AJ, and once or twice KQ if he feels spewy but more importantly my line is a lot easier to take than the one I went for here.

Not really sure, It feels like a horrible spot if I'm honest. Difficult to get value from a somewhat narrow range that can call, easy to be beaten and also an opportunity for a floaty guy to try and move me off If I give him the chance.

I need to work out how to play this spot effectively for the future as my current lines of thinking have me very unsure If I'm reading his hand-range well or not and just owning myself whichever way it feels like I can mess up very easily in this spot.

Preflop: On those limits and especially from UTG I would still open 4xBB.Postflop: Well, it's pretty easy in those spots. Usually it's very difficult for us to turn our hand into bluff-catcher on the turn, cause they are willing to Bet very often the river as well while we show weakness by Checking. Therefore rather Bet yourself on the turn and do it for protection and free showdown.

As played, you practically beat all the hands there, can't really see how you can fold. Only some FH/Qx hand beat you but meanwhile he could even have missed draws or even just Ax. Doesn't make sense to Check/Call the turn & give up on the river.

I've been thinking about this hand and I respectfully disagree, not with opening 4BB from EP but this;

Originally posted by veriz
As played, you practically beat all the hands there

This player is a 15/13 micro-stakes Ipoker robot type guy. His range is Not Ax, or Q9s or T9s 89s player. Preflop vs me in EP2/MP1 He will call me at worst with AT+ KQ KJs and 66+, he is not aggro 3-betting and is possibly even calling KK and AA preflop.

He looks like he does not fold very much to cbets but even someone who doesn't fold much to cbets will often lay down 77. 88 or even 99 on this sort of flop.

Imo, we have a very big problem, that with AK on an A high flop we would normally getting value from exactly AQ. When the T comes on the turn our situation gets even worse. AQ, AT, KJs, TT, QQ, (possibly AA) beat us, we split with AK and we only beat KQs, KQ, AJ, occasionally 99 which might find calling tough.

Our best chance is to have the turn check through so we can make a small valuebet river, otherwise we are likely beat.

That said, Check/folding turn seems pretty awful, but given my previous estimations of most likely potential villain range what can he possibly be betting that we beat?

If you disagree with me, tell me if your answer would be for NL20, 50 or 100 and why you think a TAG-style ABC robot will be playing any differently here? Where did I go wrong with my hand-range assessment?

That said, Check/folding turn seems pretty awful, but given my previous estimations of most likely potential villain range what can he possibly be betting that we beat?

If you are Check/Folding river then Check/Fold the turn mate.
As I said it doesn't make sense to Call the turn and give up on the river.

If you disagree with me, tell me if your answer would be for NL20, 50 or 100 and why you think a TAG-style ABC robot will be playing any differently here? Where did I go wrong with my hand-range assessment?

All the limits, all the same Check/Call the river as long I turned my hand into bluff-catcher. Well, you said Tight reg, then you said a robot, what is he then? I am not changing ever my play here, I am Check/Calling the river. He could easily have there even some PPs which he turned into bluff cause he sees that he doesn't have showdown value vs your for example JJ/KK or whatsoever you could be Check/Calling like that and of course missed draws.