President Obama to run again in 2012

CAMPAIGN 2012

(FILES) In this April 1, 2011 file photo, US President Barack Obama speaks to employees of AT&T, PepsiCo, UPS and Verizon in Landover, Maryland. Obama April 4, 2011 formally announced his 2012 re-election bid, saying the country needed "to protect the progress" it had made. "Today, we are filing papers to launch our 2012 campaign," Obama said in a statement. less

(FILES) In this April 1, 2011 file photo, US President Barack Obama speaks to employees of AT&T, PepsiCo, UPS and Verizon in Landover, Maryland. Obama April 4, 2011 formally announced his 2012 re-election bid, ... more

Photo: Jewel Samad, AFP/Getty Images

Photo: Jewel Samad, AFP/Getty Images

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(FILES) In this April 1, 2011 file photo, US President Barack Obama speaks to employees of AT&T, PepsiCo, UPS and Verizon in Landover, Maryland. Obama April 4, 2011 formally announced his 2012 re-election bid, saying the country needed "to protect the progress" it had made. "Today, we are filing papers to launch our 2012 campaign," Obama said in a statement. less

(FILES) In this April 1, 2011 file photo, US President Barack Obama speaks to employees of AT&T, PepsiCo, UPS and Verizon in Landover, Maryland. Obama April 4, 2011 formally announced his 2012 re-election bid, ... more

Photo: Jewel Samad, AFP/Getty Images

President Obama to run again in 2012

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(04-05) 04:00 PDT Washington -- President Obama told his fan base by e-mail Monday that he will run for re-election in 2012, admitting that change has not come "quickly or easily" - although even Republican handicappers give him a better than 60 percent chance at a second term.

His wounds are self-evident: a divisive health care fight; two years of staggeringly high unemployment; frustration among liberals who lost hope after insufficient change; alienated independent voters; devastating midterm losses that cost him control of the House, a filibuster-proof Senate and 11 governorships; and now a third war in the Muslim world.

Having replaced a very unpopular president, now Obama is the unpopular president. His Gallup Poll approval rating last week stood at 46 percent.

But presidential elections are decided in the Electoral College, where the battleground is winnowed to about 10 states and winners take all. A splintered Republican field, a looming budget war in which Obama has dared Republicans to own every unpopular decision, and the power of incumbency make Obama the obvious front-runner, barring unforeseen disasters.

But unforeseen disasters are to be expected.

GOP's challenge

"Obama is certainly beatable. It's just that the eventual GOP presidential nominee has to move with James Bond-like precision in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Nevada," said Ford O'Connell, chairman of the Conservative Civic Forum PAC, whose chief goal is to remove the current occupant of the White House.

O'Connell puts Obama's chance of re-election as high as 65 percent, in part because big states like California are in his pocket.

The potential Republican field ranges from substantial but unknown contenders such as Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels to such lightning rods as Tea Party favorite Rep. Michelle Bachmann, R-Minn., and former GOP vice presidential candidate Palin.

Romney and Huckabee

Thurber sees former Massachusetts Gov. Romney as the nomination front-runner, but said his challenge will be to navigate the Tea Party-dominated Iowa caucus while maintaining viability among independent voters in a general election.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has some of the Southern charm of former President Bill Clinton, Thurber said, and he's a favorite of O'Connell, who thinks Huckabee monopolizes "the intersection of media, faith and politics," in part thanks to Fox News.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie - called the "anti-Obama" because he is fat (by his own description), plainspoken and budget slashing - is a YouTube hit and Beltway favorite but has said he's not running.

Obama has a huge advantage among Latinos, whose voting power threatens the GOP's Southern bastion. The 2010 census showed that North Carolina's Hispanic population doubled in a decade to 800,000, and that five of the state's six largest cities are dominated by what once were minorities. The same population dynamic is at work in Virginia and Georgia.

Wooing Latinos

Obama has cultivated the Latino vote with a Supreme Court appointment in Sonia Sotomayor and quixotic calls for immigration reform, while Republicans, spurning former President George W. Bush's strenuous efforts to woo what many consider a naturally conservative constituency, continue to anger the fastest-growing voter bloc with immigration crackdowns.

On one of the dominant political issues of the day - debt and deficits - Obama has left Republicans to take a suicidal leap into entitlement reforms to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. Polls show that the public wants to reduce deficits but not cut specific spending or raise taxes.

Obama ignored the recommendations of his own debt commission. Thurber said it remains to be seen if the ploy works.

"Everyone wants to go to heaven without dying," he said. "Obama may think that by punting on the budget he will force blame on the Republican Party, but I'm not so sure of that."

But the economy and incumbency dominate all other factors in presidential elections. Obama may be poised to run during an upswing in the business cycle. Barring a double-dip recession, he enters his re-election race with a 2 1/2-to-1 historic advantage for incumbents, Sabato said.