Tuesday, May 16, 2017

War Between the States - Games Turns 69 to 76

Rosecrans receives reinforcements and proceeds to repeatedly attack Lee at New Bearn

in a battle of attrition lead by his subordinate McPherson.

Over on the Mississippi, both sides pull back.

Is something going to happen in Kentucky?

On the subject of Kentucky, the latest thought is that the Union should have invaded immediately the war started when the Confederates were strapped for supplies and wouldn't have been able to take advantage of the boost in manpower.

Same goes for gunboats on the Mississippi. Ah, the benefit of hindsight.

The Confederates attempt a massive attack in the Shenandoah Valley,

but fail at the last minute.

The initiative chits for the Union were 1, 5, 4 and 5 and for the Confederates 2, 3, 1 and 2.

Could there be a renewed offensive across the mountains in the coming winter?

Or are the Union waiting for spring? The money is on the latter.

The very quiet Mississippi.

The only sound is the Union building more gunboats and the rebs fortifying.

The initiative chits for the Union were 5, 4, 2 and 1 and for the Confederates 1, 3, 3 and 2.

There is one cycle left for 1862 and then the rebs might be able to achieve victory. Rosencrans victory has reduced the odds from two tries at 50% to two tries at 33%. If my maths is right this changes the probability from 75% to 56%,

2 comments:

They have a lot of infantry about to arrive, but it gets spread all over the map and takes time and effort to concentrate. Their big chance is rolling for victory at the start of 1863. 56% chance that it's game over.