Lyoto Machida opens as -340 favorite for UFC bout vs. Gegard Mousasi

Former UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida has opened as a more than 3-to-1 favorite against former Strikeforce champ Gegard Mousasi for their fight in February in Brazil.

Veteran oddsmaker Joey Oddessa on Friday confirmed the opening line with MMAjunkie.com.

Machida (20-4 MMA, 12-4 UFC) and Mousasi (34-3-2 MMA, 1-0 UFC) were booked to fight earlier today for a “Fight Night” event that will take place Feb. 8 at Arena Jaragua in Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil.

At -340, Machida is in similar betting favorite territory as he was to open up wagering for this past Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 30. For that event, he stopped Mark Munoz with a head kick in the first round of the main event. He opened as a -380 favorite in that fight before sliding back slightly.

That line, however, represented the biggest odds in favor of Machida since his first title defense against Mauricio Rua at UFC 104 in October 2009. He won that fight, but the controversy behind the decision necessitated a rematch – one he lost by knockout to Rua at UFC 113.

Mousasi will be in unfamiliar territory as a +260 underdog to open up. In his UFC debut against Ilir Latifi in April, he opened at some books as a -2000 favorite before ultimately settling in between -600 and -1000. He also was a heavy favorite against Mike Kyle at the Strikeforce finale and is no stranger to odds of well more than -500 in his favor throughout his career.

Oddessa believes it’s not even that close, though.

“It’s a far more competitive bout on paper than it will be in the cage,” Oddessa told MMAjunkie.com. “You can quote me: Machida won’t lose a round.”

Mousasi will have to travel to Machida’s home country of Brazil, but Oddessa doesn’t see that factoring in.

“The venue isn’t as big a factor as most would think,” he said. “Mousasi is always on the road and Machida’s decision loss in Brazil (to Phil Davis at UFC 163) could make for a more aggressive Machida and open the door for him walking into something flukey.”

More than anything, Oddessa seems to believe that Mousasi is simply going up against a different animal than recent opponents like Latifi, Kyle, Ovince St. Preux and Hiroshi Izumi.

“Gegard has not beat anyone of Machida’s caliber since the DREAM middleweight grand prix in 2008,” Oddessa said.

That said, he has lost just once in more than seven years – and that was when he surrendered his Strikeforce title to Muhammed Lawal in April 2010.

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