Currently there has an increase in major quakes prompting experts to release
stories to the media that all is well in their silent panic. Major quakes
are now the norm as most in America have move on to issues related to their
present daily lives. Thus, the need for stats to establish trends are no longer
required as the increasing reports of damage and death are now apparent.

Natural Disasters | 08.03.2010
March 8, 2010

Scientists say global quake
volume steady, despite appearances

What seems to be a spate of
recent earthquakes is raising public alarm about an
overall rise in dangerous tremors. But scientists say
that, despite appearances, they have yet to prove a
global increase in major quakes.

The latest major earthquake to
make headlines hit Eastern Turkey on early Monday morning.
It registered 6.0 on the Richter scale, and has claimed the
lives of some 57 people so far. Meanwhile, major tremors in
Taiwan, Chile and Haiti are still dominating news cycles.

But although some evidence
suggests these earthquakes may be related, a connection
hasn't been scientifically proven, scientists say.

The number of earthquakes
around the globe is fairly constant, albeit fluctuating,
according to Wolfgang Friederich, a professor of geoscience
at the Ruhr University in Bochum.

Statistics from the US
Geological Survey's Earthquake Hazard Program show that the
number of earthquakes that measure between 7.0 and 7.9
magnitude on the Richter scale remained fairly stable in the
last decade, averaging about 13 per year.

There were no more than four
quakes that measured 8.0 to 9.9 in that time. And the number
of small quakes and shocks to be measured is almost
infinite, Ruhr Univeristy's Friedrich said.

Ring of Fire

The earth is composed of four
layers: the inner core, outer core, mantleand crust.
Together, the crust and the upper mantle comprise the
lithosphere, a 50 kilometer (30 mile) thick layer that is
made up of sections called tectonic plates.

These plates are known to
shift, and contain many faults that cause the pieces to slip
past one another. Most earthquakes occur along these
faults.

"The plates can move
horizontally or they move vertically so that one plate moves
beneath another plate," Friedrich said. "Plate movement can
be a mix of horizontal and vertical."

Much of the world's earthquake
activity takes place in the area in the Pacific known as the
Ring of Fire, a horseshoe-shaped area encircling the coast
of the Pacific Ocean along countries such as New Zealand,
Japan, Alaska and Chile. Some other major, well-known
earthquake areas are the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the San
Andreas Fault in California.

Coincidence, or
connection?

According to Friedrich,
seismologic modeling and mathematical calculation of
stresses has shown an increase of stresses in other parts of
the world after an earthquake occurs. This, combined with
statistical data, has created a theory that a large
earthquake such as the recent ones in Haiti and Chile can
relieve stress in one part of a plate and increase it in
another, potentially causing a follow-up quake in another
part of the world.

"The problem is that you have
to prove that it is not a coincidence, which is really
hard," he said.

Bildunterschrift:
News about the tremor in Haiti captivated the world

Some scientists say they are
relatively sure that after an earthquake, stress is
redistributed to other locations on the tectonic plate. But
connecting the effect to a second, later earthquake is not
so easy, they maintain.

That the Chile earthquake
occurred not long after the Haiti one, is still likely to be
a coincidence, Friedrich said.

Reiner Kind, a researcher at
the GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences, concurs. "No
one has so far successfully proved that earthquakes on one
side of a plate are linked with earthquakes on the other
side of the plate," he said.

Better detection methods

In fact, other factors may
contribute to a perception that the number of earthquakes is
increasing. For instance, the frequency and accuracy of
quake measurement has improved.

"In the last decades,
seismology has made a great deal of progress," Kind said.

As recently as thirty years
ago, Kind said, recording was still done mostly on paper and
there were few measuring stations worldwide. Now there are
many more stations and with digital equipment at their
disposal, scientists can immediately record any earthquake
at any location.

"Ten minutes after an
earthquake happens, we know where it is and how big it is,"
he said.

Scientists also know that if a
fault is broken once, it will break again, Kind added. But
they still do not know when that next earthquake will occur,
or how big it may be.

The role of the media

Another factor in the public's
perception that there are more earthquakes today than there
used to be, could be the media. When the earthquakes struck
Haiti and Chili, news organizations arrived quickly on the
scene. Within minutes, their updates were beamed around the
globe.

"The media is working much
better than before. They are much better at communicating
information," Kind said.

A spokesman for the Science
Media Center in London, which aims to promote accurate
scientific reporting, noted that the earthquakes in Haiti
and Chile were covered extensively in the media.

"It makes an exciting story
because people see what it would be like for themselves,"
said Tom Sheldon, a spokesman for the center, adding that
for the viewer, it is like watching a disaster movie.

Wolfgang Friedrich from the
Ruhr University notes that news of earthquakes tends to
reach the public when they cause a lot of damage and many
people are hurt. This increases the ominous perception that
the earthquake threat is increasing.

But according to Sheldon, when
the media focuses only on major earthquakes, it can make it
seem like there are fewer tremors than there really are. In
fact, there are hundreds of minor earthquakes that normally
occur each year.

"Some earthquakes happen in the
middle of the Pacific and can be quite strong, but nobody
will be interested except seismologists," Friedrich said.