Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Modest shifts on the primary vote cause Newspoll’s two-party meter to tick in favour of Labor.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe

Surging house prices in Australia over the past decade were caused mainly by the Reserve Bank’s campaign to slash the official interes­t rate to record low levels, according to a groundbreaking study by the central bank.
…
It found that, all else being equal, a 1 per cent drop in interest rates would, over the long run, boost house prices by 17 per cent.

The cash rate has been slashed from 4.75 per cent throughout most of 2011 to its current record-low level of 1.5 per cent as the central bank attempte­d to offset the end of the mining boom and encourage activit­y in the housing and consumption sector.

Someone recently wrote something like “Imagine what would happen to house prices if everyone was able to access a ten million dollar loan. Now imagine what would happen if the most anyone could access was one hundred thousand.”

Chinda63 says:
Monday, March 11, 2019 at 8:02 pm
The Libs are heavily spruiking their anti-franking credit petition on … wait for it … realestate.com.au.
Because we all know that’s where most cash-strapped retirees spend their time when online

“Have to laugh at those exercising their wishful thinking re Michelle Obama. Let’s look at her qualifications.

1. Held a local government post, run for a local legislature? Nup
2. Held a state government post, or run for a state legislature? Nup.
3. Held a federal government post. or run for federal legislature? Nup?
4 Can point to a significant independent professional achievement, not associated with being first lady? Nup”

I totally agree. Love Michelle, but elected office is not for her. If she aspired to it, she’d have taken a different path than the one she has walked. I wish her all the best for her chosen path, not the one others have imagined for her.

Andrew “meh” Earlwood is annoyed that Democratic voters don’t share his lackadaisical attitude towards high stakes issues, don’t share his ageism, and don’t share his discomfort about a young woman exercising power and charisma.

Centrists are in for a few surprises next year, that’s for sure.

Their read on the state of presidential politics in the Democratic Party is seriously amiss.

1. Held a local government post, run for a local legislature? Nup
2. Held a state government post, or run for a state legislature? Nup.

I don’t know who wrote this but Michelle Obama has held a number of positions in local and state government in Chicago, including serving on boards of various institutions. At one point for a while her salary was significantly greater than that of her husband.

4 Can point to a significant independent professional achievement, not associated with being first lady? Nup”

Clearly Michelle Obama could win the democratic nomination, heck she could win the presidency, but look what happens when a completely unqualified and uncommitted candidate succeeds in doing just that. Methinks you are the one to have missed the point TPFO. Not for the first time either!

A professional achievement is not qualifying for a degree. It is achieving policies and achieving real reform. Yeah she has sat on some boards. So what. That is not the same as running and winning. It is not the same as suffering the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, year after year. This is the same mentality that would have a certain celebrated black talk show host as a candidate. Seriously? She is probably more qualified, at least her money has established some charitable institutions. There is no substitute for doing the hard yards of campaigning and in actually being responsible for running something… not a board, not a PTA, but a state, a department, heck even a local council.

Watching “Australian Story” on the fight by Thalidamide victims to receive proper treatment. Harrie Wade (Country Party Senator) Health Minister refused to let parents know about the warnings sent to the Government for more than 6 months claiming it would cause undue concern.
Could be a candidate for “Arsehole of the century”?

when I was in high school in the early 90s we were taught about the “inhabited for 120 thousand years and possibly even longer” theory. It almost seemed the mainstream accepted view back then. But it was only a few years later the theory seemed to lose favour. Cant remember but I seem to recall some disputes about the accuracy of some particular carbon dating? Yet now it would seem its making a comeback?

Question here, if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was an Aussie and got elected as a Australian Greens senator, how popular would she be among the voting public?

So popular that the ALP would do everything they could to get her away from the Greens and into the ALP.

This is a moot question. The value for someone like Occasio-Cortez is being part of a major party. There is no value for her in seeking nomination for the Greens as she would have no chance at being elected.

“Andrew “meh” Earlwood is annoyed that Democratic voters don’t share his lackadaisical attitude towards high stakes issues, don’t share his ageism, and don’t share his discomfort about a young woman exercising power and charisma.

Centrists are in for a few surprises next year, that’s for sure.

Their read on the state of presidential politics in the Democratic Party is seriously amiss.”

Your convenient respect for the elderly, when it suits (ie. Bernie not Biden), love of demigods spouting easy shibboleths doesn’t paperover the fact you have no clue and no idea about building coalitions between folk with different views, even when common ground and common cause is to be had. Your political Taylor Swift is so up herself she thinks it’s a good idea to kick sand in the face of her potential allies and worse, potential voters.

You are a cargo cultist. Your doctrinaire hectoring would not be out of place in some fundamentalist religion. Any political success your heroes enjoy are no more than flashes in the pan. Real progress is about boring holes in hard boards. The long game. Enduring coalitions.

Today’s Newspoll has sapped an already deflated Coalition of what little confidence remained.

It was quite simply a momentum killer. Relentless campaigning on boats and the economy designed to scare voters off supporting Labor has seemingly fallen flat.

Scott Morrison looks to have zero cut-through with an electorate that has made up its collective minds.

And it’s no wonder. The distractions have been never ending.

The Prime Minister put his foot in his mouth on International Women’s Day. New cabinet minister Linda Reynolds did the same over the weekend, highlighting her ignorance on wages polices.

Tony Abbott landed yet another policy backflip on climate change action, this time designed to save his blue-ribbon seat of Warringah. And all of that before we even consider the shenanigans inside the Nationals, with talk of a leadership spill on April Fool’s Day (appropriate, really).

(Link isn’t working for some reason)

The coalition’s last ditch hope is the budget. But if people have made up their minds, I don’t expect Newspoll will shift other than at the MoE level.

Fess a government can name a starting date for a tax change subject to the change being passed. It happens all the time with tax changes as it lessons the impact of people taking advantage of any delay in the passage of the bill.