As many of
my followers know (and by “followers” I mean those that regularly read
my columns
and/or listen to my podcast
— don’t want folks to think I’m building a compound), I have been on a quest to
prove that one can make decent money at the racetrack ($20K or more) on a small
stake ($500 or less) — without relying on rebates — for some time now.

Recently,
after a period of reasonable success but infuriating losing streaks, I decided
to shelve my more speculative and less consistent angles/methods in favor of
higher-percentage techniques. I wrote about this approach in “Thinking Small.”

So far,
this has worked like a charm. I’ve been more consistent for a longer period of
time than at any point in my handicapping life, save when I used to spend hours
analyzing races manually (prior to the advent of simulcast wagering and the development
of my computerized programs).Since Nov.
7, when I this experiment began, until yesterday (Nov. 28), I have accumulated
a 26 percent overall ROI, with a 30 percent ROI on win bets and a five percent ROI on
exacta bets. During this time, my bankroll has nearly doubled and I have even
played a smattering of standardbred events with equal success.

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on image to enlarge)

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on image to enlarge)

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on image to enlarge)

Of course,
while I’m encouraged by the early returns, there’s still a lot of time and
challenges ahead of me. However, if — excuse me, when — I succeed, I want to write about the experience (I’m documenting
everything I do) to help other players, because I think the psychology behind
successful investing/gambling is nearly as important as one’s handicapping
acumen.

It will
probably come as no great shock to anyone that I have made far fewer bad bets or
silly mistakes this time ‘round (in the past, I’ve shown a talent for betting the
wrong numbers or getting shut out). Keeping my bets simple is clearly part of
the reason for this — and it is why I believe that players need to understand
their own psyches to succeed as gamblers.

In many
ways, I’m a stereotype of my German ancestry when it comes to wagering — I need
structure, consistency and discipline to succeed. When any of those three
elements is missing, I struggle and can, seemingly without effort (another
talent), turn a good handicapping effort into a financial disaster.

So, before
you attack the windows today (preferably, not literally), ask yourself: What is
it that I’m good at? What is it that I’m poor at? And, most importantly, what
is/are the trigger(s) that lead to poor money management when I’m betting on
the races?Answer
those questions and you might just make some money — or at least not lose as
much.The Perfect Negative Show Pool Bet

I’ve often
opined that the best bet in racing is a show bet on a horse other than the
favorite in races featuring a negative show pool — particularly at tracks that
use net
pool pricing.

Now, I
like these bets in almost all instances; however, the very best betting
situations occur when the race favorite is weak or vulnerable. And, generally
speaking, the most vulnerable favorites are confirmed frontrunners… like the
one that I spotted on Nov. 26:

(Click
on image to enlarge)

(Click
on image to enlarge)

That day, in the fifth race at Parx Racing, D’Tiger
controlled $22,543 of the $26,523 (85 percent) bet to show. Yet the New York
import had a fatal weakness: not only had he not won from off the pace, but he
had also been recording some pretty mediocre early speed rations (my own
measurement of early energy disbursement).

Given the presence of Notre Grande in the field, I thought
there was a pretty good chance thatD’Tiger would have to
rally from off the pace or, at the very least, go a lot faster early— and I sure as heck didn’t think he was 2/5 (his
post-time odds) to do that successfully.

(Click
on image to enlarge)

Moreover, I felt that if Norte Grande produced an ESR of -10 or less("brisk" to"demanding" on my scale) — something he had done in three of his eight prior races — D’Tiger
might lose heart altogether and finish out of the money.

As it turned
out, I was right and lucky. Norte
Grande did, in fact,post a sub-minus-10 ESR and D’Tiger made his plight worse by
stumbling at the start.

(Click
on image to enlarge)

I collected $20.20
to show on Norte Grande and another $9.20 to show on Grande Prelude, who I
thought was a safe show bet whether D’Tiger ran his race or not.

These
situations occur a lot more often than one might think, so it pays to keep one’s
eyes peeled. Again, I think it is the best bet in racing. One can still cash in
instances where the big favorite finishes in the money, and when the big
favorite runs up the track… well, you get show payoffs like the ones above.

From my perspective,
sitting in a cold office looking out at a frozen field where only months ago
long, golden corn stalks were rising from the rich, brown dirt, winter has
arrived. It’s dramatic weather for harness horses; the elements of a wintry
climate set up more adversity for the monstrous equines.

Though it is an
adventure to visit a raceway under the pressure of this season, we are all
fortunate to have our connection to TwinSpires to be able to spend other nights
watching and wagering in a private space, not having to weather the biting
winds or sheets of snow and ice.

We can see it all on
line and as far as the season’s stakes are concerned we have just about seen it
all. Glamour-boy pacers give one more shot for big money on Sunday at Dover in
a Matrons Final. In Canada, pacing sophs that have not played a major role in
the division get a shot at some larger purses in th Autumn Stakes Finals.

And of course, our
personal books are published in these blogs as we continue our Horses to Watch
list (H2W).

Autumn Stakes

The Autumn Stakes final for soph-filly pacers is at Woodbine
on Friday, Nov. 30. Ten, with an also-eligible on hand, go to post for $60,000
total.

Getting into the final fray against solid favorites is a
filly that fits the Woodbine oval perfectly. Third in an elim last week, The
Speed Of Music got started a little too late to get to the top but was wailing
in late stretch just the way a lot of longshots like to do at Woodbine in those
final hundred or so feet. The speed is on the inside and there doesn’t seem to
be an argument against the top three morning-line choices.

The Speed Of Music can sensationalize on what could be some
shuffling from the top three and be in a grand spot to use her late speed to
topple them at a price.

The field for the $60,000
soph-colt pacing final has a pair of boys getting into the field from
less-than-perfect trips in their elims. Pass The Deuce was charging with a lot
of pace late at 13-1 and got to the wire with a close pair.

As well, Winbak Carl was ready to
charge but became locked in dearly, being robbed of third place by foes in
front of him. Set free, he could be the major upset and these two may even
share first and second in either position over the obvious public choices.

Matron Pace Boys

On Dec. 2 Dover Downs features the $176,663 Matron Stakes
final for glamour-boy pacers. A talented field of eight will go behind the gate
in the final major dash for the division.

Most of the win betting will go on Heston Blue Chip and
Thinking Out Loud, both impressive in last week’s eliminations (although
“Heston” lost to Hillbilly Hanover). However, a long-time foe on the far
outside poses a major threat for the top choice.

Bettor’s Edge made an uncharacteristic move last week,
brushing to the lead by the half. He will likely not challenge the leader early
as he drew the outside and pace will come from speed-demon Heston. Bettor’s
Edge will be somewhere in the middle-pack and should get cover from either
Thinking Out Loud or Escape The News. In this scenario, Bettor’s Edge would fan
off cover and successfully chase down Heston to win the Matron and keep the
divisional champ status as cloudy as it has been for most of the season.

Watching Horses

Our H2W list was open to the public beginning last week and
our files are being updated even as you read this. Again, we offer TwinSpires
players some overnighters with the kind of potential we look to find, usually
and hopefully accompanied by decent prices.

For those of you that missed last week’s recap of the H2W
specs, let’s go over them.

The H2W list offers horses you may play up to twice if they
don’t win the week after appearing on our list and you may wish to play them
only if they are a reasonable price; it’s your call on the value. Sometimes a
pair of H2W entries will appear in the same race. In the past, this has
produced a number of exactas and trifectas; these plays, too, are your call.

But the selections are potent, based on our experienced
spotters’ evaluations of recent trips. We will report on all the results as
each horse on the list races.

The legend is simple. We list the track atop the horse’s
name, the date it (or they) will be racing and the race where it is (or they
are) entered. If a + is in front of a horse’s name, it means that horse is
appearing on the list for the second or third time. An ae means the horse is on
the also-eligible list and needs a scratch to get into the race.

Following that 500-mile journey it took another15 years before Christian discovered horse racing, but one trip to Detroit Race Course with her brothers soon led to many others, including visits to Hazel and Raceway Parks. None of those three venues conduct Thoroughbred racing anymore.

The wagering did not begin in earnest until she retired from General Motors following 33 years of service, but even at work she found a way to enjoy the races.

"I used to take my breaks in the back because I would be able to hear the race call from DRC," Christian said referring to Detroit Race Course by its acronym. "I have three brothers, and we all like to play the horses."

Christian, 74, qualified for the TSOHS final in July, but four months of anticipation turned to melancholy after just seven races when she had $6.20 following a winner in the opener but nothing since.The Golden Rod Stakes was the eighth race up, which meant the contest would be more than half over following this race, and Christian was ready to make her move by selecting 31-to-1 longshot Seaneen Girl. The Spring At Last filly went on to win by half a length from favored Gal About Town to give Christian $85.60 and a big boost in the standings."I just wasn't doing too well, but once I hit that longshot things really seemed to start clicking," Christian said, adding that her strategy is to look for longshots competitive at the current class coupled with top jockeys. Miguel Mena, who ranked third by earnings and fourth by wins at the recently concluded Churchill meeting, was aboard Seaneen for new trainer Bernie Flint following a runner-up finish behind Spring Venture in the Grade 3 Mazarine at Woodbine."Hitting that one in the Golden Rod gave me some confidence, and then I started making all the right moves," said Christian, who scored in four of the final five races, including the last three, to take over the lead.She used Tap To Magic, a dead heat winner of contest race 13 who paid more to place ($6.80) than to win because of the dead heat. She then landed on Dancing To The Stars, a 9.8-to-1 winner of contest race 14. Pussycat Lips' rally fell short to gate-to-wire winner Travesura in the final contest race, but her furious rally was good enough for second and generous place money of $10.20 thanks to 9-to-10 favorite Premier Steps finishing off the board."Garrett Gomez is one of the jockeys I like to play, and he finished second in the last race," Christian said. "The favorite was overbet, so I was thinking a longshot in the top two would be enough for me, and it was. I was so excited when I saw my name on top at the end."

For a complete list of Christian's picks, click here; for a list of all TSOHS final participants with their picks and ranking, click here.Christian is not the first person in her family to qualify for the NHC. One of her brother's sons has competed, and she said she'll be relying on his experience to help her prepare for a shot at the $750,000 top prize. Christian said that one of her biggest adjustments will be placing contest selections with a live teller after using TwinSpires.com for the past 5-6 years."I do almost all of my playing on the internet now," Christian said. "I have to keep my mind busy in retirement, and this is something I enjoy."

She will also have to get accustomed to selecting optional races since the TwinSpires Online Handicapping series uses a model of all mandatory races. However, Michael Beychok did not have a problem making that adjustment last year when finishing third in the 2011 TSOHS final and first in the NHC.Christian said her favorite horse is Zenyatta even though the certain future Racing Hall of Fame inductee cost her a contest win in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic--but not because Christian needed her to win but because she bet against her!"She was the even money favorite, and I thought I'd need a bigger price than that, so I picked against her," Christian said. "As it turns out, I only lost by $3."Zenyatta was the even money favorite and would have paid $4 to win. She fell a head short of Blame but still paid $3.60 to place, which would have given Christian the win. It's a lesson she plans to keep in mind at the NHC.

"I'm going to keep playing every week to stay sharp," Christian said. "I like Fridays and Saturdays best, and that's the days of the [NHC]. Hopefully I'll be able to study the past performances a few days in advance. I just hope I can do the best I can."Christian has a son and two grandchildren, but the racing bug has been slower to infest her branch of the family tree.

"I've brought my grandchildren before and told them grandma would split whatever she wins with them, but they weren't too interested," Christian said. "They liked when we won, but it can be a long time between races."

That will not be an issue for Christian at the NHC, who--along with about 450 other players--will have to navigate 30 races over a two-day period, including the addition of a "best bet" from among the eight mandatory races each day.

Harness bettors’ consciousnesses are fickle. Sometimes you
lose so much you crave a winner at almost any price, mostly because a long
string of losers makes one feel as if one will never win again. It’s human
nature. Another strange characteristic comes when you have winners that refuse
to pay “enough.” You never really distinguish how much is enough, you just
don’t feel right when you win a few and you have to share so much of their
success with the crowd in the form of a low payoff.

All that counts is what the ledger reveals. When there is
more money recorded in the “cashed” column than in the “wagered” column, you
are ahead. So it doesn’t matter if a string of low-priced horses get you there
or a few choice longer-than-long wins get you there. Either way, you get there.

Few of us, however, keep running totals in our heads, so a
few days tend to stand on their own merit, even if they mean little to the
long-run wagering-investment campaign. That being said, let’s look at another
weekend of harness action as one piece in this endless stream of playing we
hope winds up in the black, when the numbers are crushed.

Results

We wound up with two Woodbine favorites in Nov. 23’s Autumn Series
elims for the soph-filly pacers. The one of the two that won, Aubession, we
figured to be a second choice at the least. But she won and paid $4.50. The
other, a filly on a streak that did not seem to want to stop, made the final
but lost. That was Drunk And Dramatic.

On Nov. 24 our two Autumn Series elim colt pacers did not
win. True To Mach wound up third and Machinist was out of the money.

During the season we heralded the talents of Hillbilly
Hanover, a glamour-boy pacer that showed promise against the top rung of the
division. He failed countless times and was winless until two weeks ago when he
won a conditioned event against far less productive horses. The week later he
comes back and defeats Heston Blue Chip in a Matron Stakes elim and pays $30.

That happened at Dover on Nov. 25. “Heston” had a tough trip
and defeating nothing last week encouraged “Hillbilly.” So it goes. Mel Mara
made the final but finished fourth in the other elim.

H2W

From last week’s Horses to Watch List (H2W), we had two winners.

At Batavia, we gave you Vintage Fenom ($6.50) and Right Back At You ($3.20)
on Nov. 23. These two leave the list but if you like them next out off of the
win and they are offering decent prices, you could back them again. The two
others on the Batavia H2W list remain another race. One of them, Anastasia
Willie was third at 21-1).

There were two seconds at Lebanon, Request To Win (11-1) and Clem’s Pride
(5-2). These two remain listed, along with the other four on the Lebanon H2W
list.

The Cal Expo H2W list gave out Cruisin Inmybeamer, who finished third at
8-1, and two others. Of those two, Delightful Shark scratched, so he gets two
more chances.

At press time only two of three raced from the Balmoral H2W list and they
were both off the board.

In the next blog, later this week, we will update the list and add entries
as well as rename those with more chances (non winners).

News And Notes

The Meadows released its racing schedule for 2013. The western Pennsylvania
track’s 50th anniversary season will feature 208 live cards, highlighted by the
Delvin Miller Adios on July 20 and July 27. Generally, the Meadows will race
four days each week, Monday and Tuesday at 12:55 p.m. and Wednesday and Friday
at 6:55 p.m. The schedule also features 13 Saturday cards, including both Adios
programs, in the spring and summer. A two-week summer break from live racing
begins Aug. 17.

Pocono
Downs looks to 2013 featuring another hosting platform for the Breeders Crown.
Opening night is March 23, the 48th season for the eastern
Pennsylvania track. Post time will be 6:30 p.m, with racing taking place on
Sundays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Saturdays through May.

A special doubleheader program will
be featured on Kentucky Derby day, May 4, with the first post time of 11 a.m.,
and the second post immediately following the 139th running of the prestigious
race.In June and July, racing moves to five nights
a week, maintaining a post of 6:30 p.m. on Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday and
Saturday. A special earlier post of 3:30 p.m. on Fridays is a new addition to
the race card.

The Breeders Crown will be held on
one night, Saturday (Oct. 19). Eliminations for the huge night of racing will
be held on Oct. 11 and Oct. 12. TwinSpires hopes to once again have us on site
at Pocono for elims and finals evening, monitoring exclusive coverage of the
historic night of world-class racing.

Racing in August through Nov. 16
will continue on Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday (with the early post) and Saturday.
A total of 140 race days are scheduled. The track will be closed March 31 and
the week of Sept. 8 for the Pennsylvania Oktoberfest.

Buffalo Raceway, in Hamburg, N.Y.,
opens its 71st season of harness racing on Jan. 9 with renewed optimism.
Structural improvements on the grounds include two new barns and major repairs
on existing facilities, with the racing surface “improved” according to
officials. Horsemen are also happy about the plan to increase purses by 10
percent daily.

All of this contributes to better
racing as the usual schedule ensues. Programs will be offered with a Wednesday,
Friday and Saturday format. The post time for Wednesdays will be 5 p.m. and
Fridays and Saturdays will be at 6:40 p.m. Thursdays are added in April. Sunday
afternoon racing returns in June and July.

Buffalo is pleased to announce that
they have joined with the USTA Strategic Wagering Program, offering a
guaranteed $5,000 Pick-4 wagering pool every Wednesday in January, February and
March. Also offered, beginning opening day, will be a guaranteed $5,000 Pick-7
payout.

Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats
blog titled Vast
Performances. Every weekend as part of that blog we we offer Balmoral
Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic
Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets. Last weekend we
had two winners of four in the Nov. 24 Pick 4: Quality Sport ($8.40) and
Holdingallthecards ($3).

Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute
suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways. Then, wager from your
TwinSpires accounts.

Over the past week, my friend and colleague Ed DeRosa has
written extensively about Eblouissante, the three-year-old half-sister to
Zenyatta.

(Click on image to enlarge

At the heart of his writings was one simple question:
Would Eblouissante offer value in her debut or would the Zenyatta connection assure
that her price was lower than a pair of pants at a skate park?

In the end, Ed concluded that 7-5 was more than fair on a
filly that he felt had a 50-50 shot of visiting the winner’s circle and, judging by Eblouissante’s convincing 4 ½-length score, he was right. But it got me to thinking (something I like to do when I’m not keeping up with the Kardashians):
Does it make economic sense to follow and play horses that even casual players
are aware of and, therefore, more likely to bet?I decided to do a little — emphasis on little — study to find out.

Below is a table that includes all the 2011 Eclipse
Award-winning thoroughbreds (minus Black Jack Blues, who was voted best
steeplechaser) along with their pari-mutuel performances thus far in 2012. I
figured if any group of animals could be considered “name horses,” recent
Eclipse Award winners fit the bill nicely.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The results, as one can see, are somewhat ambiguous.
While last year’s champions have certainly outperformed the average
thoroughbred running for a tag at Aqueduct on a Thursday afternoon, they have
not exactly been cash cows.

Havre de Grace, Hansen, My Miss Aurelia, Animal Kingdom,
Royal Delta, Acclamation, Musical Romance and Amazombie have combined to win 17
of 35 starts this year. A $2 win bet on each of them in those 35 races would have
resulted in a profit of — drumroll please — 50 cents.That’s right, two quarters... five dimes... 10 nickels... you get the picture.Mind you, this is better than one could expect betting a bunch of random
no-names or even favorites, but it is hardly the stuff of legends, which brings
us to Saturday’s Cigar Mile Handicap at Aqueduct.Among the entrants in that Grade I event is Groupie Doll;
the same Groupie Doll that won the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint by 4 ½
lengths. The same Groupie Doll that is a lock to win the Eclipse Award for top
female sprinter.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Now, contrary to my recent betting opinions of her, I like
Groupie Doll. I think she’s a tough and talented filly and the deserving female
sprint champion, but that doesn’t mean
I think the daughter of Bowman’s Band is worthy of a bet at any price.
Personally, I wouldn’t take less than 2-1 on trainer William Bradley’s stable
star in the Cigar and, given her reputation, I think such a price is probably a pipe dream.I feel likewise about another “name horse.” Although Stay
Thirsty has not won an Eclipse Award (and isn’t likely to), many fans are still
aware of him thanks to his high-profile connections. Owned by Mike Repole and
trained by Todd Pletcher, Stay Thirsty is coming off a game second in the
Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 29 and also has a win in the Grade I Travers on
his resume.

But Stay Thirsty is a plodder. Definitely not the kind of horse
that I think will relish turning back to a mile at this stage of his career.

The horse I’ll be taking a long look at in the Cigar Mile is Buffum, a
four-year-old Bernardini colt owned by Godolphin Racing.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Buffum has run some of his best races at a flat mile and comes
off an impressive wire-to-wire score in the Grade III Bold Ruler at seven furlongs. I think he
could be on the engine again Saturday and he could prove tough to overhaul in a
race without a lot of strong late runners.

Plus, I’m guessing Buffum’s price will be a lot more generous than the price on either Groupie Doll or Stay Thirsty. And value, my friends,is the name of the the game — the only name that counts.Additional Aqueduct Analysis (11/24/12)AQU6: To say
that 1-UNLIMITED BUDGET’s debut was impressive is akin to calling the Rocky
Mountains “hills” — a gross understatement. Not only did the daughter of Street
Sense win by 9 ½ lengths on Nov. 9, she recorded a -14 early speed ration (ESR)
in the process. Unlimited Budget ran so fast early that day that she left the
1-2 favorite Brilliant Jewel, who was coming off a second-place showing behind 2-EMOLLIENT
(today’s morning-line favorite) in her lifetime bow, gasping for air even before
the field turned for home. What’s more, Unlimited Budget earned a -7 late speed
ration for her maiden score — just a couple ticks slower than Emollient
recorded in her maiden victory.

AQU7: In a
race that could feature a fairly hot pace (most juvenile races do), I like the
fact that 9-NORMANDY INVASION is a proven commodity from off the pace. I also
love the -3 LSR the son of Tapit earned last time. 6-INDY’S ILLUSION sports improving
pace figures and should get first run on the early leaders; big shot at a big
price. The 1/1A Repole Stable entry of MICROMANAGE and OVERANALYZE can also be
used at the right price (5/2 or greater). I’m taking a stand against 4-DELHOMME
if he’s a short price (less than 4-1) because I think that last race looks better
on paper than it did on the racetrack.

AQU8: Will try
to beat the “name horses” 7-GROUPIE DOLL and 1-STAY THIRSTY with 3-BUFFUM and 5-HYMN
BOOK (see analysis above).

AQU9:
I’m afraid the morning line
tells the story. 2-DANCE CARD has the most talent, but I hate the layoff, while both
6-BOOK REVIEW and 7-MY WANDY’S GIRL look like viable alternatives.

With about five
weeks left in 2012, the stakes schedule is lean and awkward. It’s lean simply
because there are a scant few races left that qualify as stakes. It’s awkward
because all racehorses will have a birthday on Jan. 1, though technically there
are horses performing that have already graduated into the next year.

Winter will display
the newest older divisions as designated when the New Year launches and those
groups will dominate through the cold months as the two- and three-year-olds
develop for debuts in warmer weather.

Bettors should not
dismay. The munificence of overnight racing easily takes over the spotlight and
there is plenty of it on all sized raceways. As this year ends, then, we will
do what we have done over the years. For one, we will be opening our personal
books and publishing, in these blogs, our Horses to Watch list (H2W) and
monitoring those horses as the deep freeze persists in the Midwest and East.

Autumn Stakes

The Autumn Stakes at Woodbine have conditions but make the
stakes grade based on their total purses. On Friday, Nov. 23, two elimination
divisions ($25,000 each) are on tap for soph-filly pacers that must be
Ontario-sired and have earned-money restrictions. The final is next week.

In the first chapter it’s difficult to separate the top
choices in the small field but you could get a bargain from Drunk And Dramatic.
Coming in from Rideau-Carleton, the filly could bring her form along and
disregard what is a step up in class. Trainer Phil Doyle has brought her here
with the best intentions and she may have what it takes to go well with this
bunch and get a good spot in the final.

In the second elim, Bill Budd’s student, Aubsession, has an
excuse for the Nov. 12 loss and was scratched the week after. The rest should
put her in perfect shape to be slightly overlooked, while her class and form
should stand up to this group.

On Saturday, Nov. 24, a pair of $25,000 Autumn Stakes elims
for soph-colt pacers are the featured events at Woodbine.

In the first episode, Rick Zeron takes the mount on
Machinist, who fits in this series like a glove. There is no telling where the
public will stuff all the dough in the win pools here but this one may make a
real race out of this elim.

True To Mach is in a great spot to show his inherited speed
and may take the other seven around all the way. But for some trouble along the
way this season, he winds up in this series and could be looking at a terrific
four-year-old season, though starting now.

Matron Pace Boys

On Nov. 25 Dover Downs features two Matron Stakes elims with
glamour-boy pacers having had their shots at the Progress Pace last Sunday.

Two big favorites top the first elim, with only six horses
going to post. There is only one chance to get any money out of this race and
that would be for Major Bombay to take well to the five-eighths oval and either
steal the race atop or find a tight place to travel as the two choices duel
themselves to oblivion.

In the other elim, the late-season surge of Heston Blue Chip
will again offer no decent payoff and he is the kind of colt you can always
play against. We like Mel Mara at a decent price against the stark choice. Mel
Mara also got started late this season and since his win at The Red Mile in
October he has had decent excuses while always in the mix. He can be the
legitimate upset choice here and deserves attention.

Watching Horses

Our H2W list is now open to the public. We offer TwinSpires
players some overnighters with the kind of potential we look to find, usually
and hopefully accompanied by decent prices.

Let’s go over the specs again for those who were not here
last season and whoever may have forgotten.

The H2W list offers horses you may play up to twice if they
don’t win the week after appearing on our list and you may wish to play them
only if they are a reasonable price; it’s your call on the value. Sometimes a
pair of H2W entries will appear in the same race. In the past, this has
produced a number of exactas and trifectas; these plays, too, are your call.

But the selections are potent, based on our experienced
spotters’ evaluations of recent trips. We will report on all the results as
each horse on the list races. The legend is simple. We list the track atop the
horse’s name, the date it (or they) will be racing and the race where it is (or
they are) entered.

At the racetrack, value and not always beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Or, as my college newspaper editor, Robert Levine, used to say, "One man's gold is another's gonorrhea."

Benoit & Associates photo

Indeed, trying to scratch that itch with a "sure thing" at 7-to-5 can burn you, but passing on easy winners at what appear to be overlaid odds after the fact smarts, too, and the debut of Zenyatta's half sister, Eblouissante, on Friday at Hollywood Park offered the perfect backdrop of this handicapping conundrum.

The base question is, what is the lowest odds at which a horse can truly offer value? Did Frankel offer value when 2-to-5 in the 2011 Queen Anne Stakes? I thought so and made a prime win bet on him. Would I have played at 1-to-5, though? Definitely not, and I know plenty of people who wouldn't have bet Spectacular Bid at 2-to-5to win the 1980 Woodward.Eblouissante was far more generous in her debut, paying off at 7-to-5 in a race I thought she was even money to win while prepared to take 6-to-5. Of course, that "generous" modifier is my opinion, since plenty of pre- & post-race chatter involved calling her overbet.

When I first looked at the race my impression was that trainer John Shirreffs would have her in peak form for an unraced late-season three-year-old filly. The BRIS Speed Rating par for the race was 89, a number only one other starter had come close to. Given Eblouissante's family's history and the string of workouts I was confident she could run atleast par.The final piece of the puzzle, though, was reading Andy Harrington's workout notes in his National Turf Clocker Report, which is available daily ($9.95) via Brisnet.com for Southern California tracks.

EBLOUISSANTE

Nov 11

HOL

5

:59.1H

M

FT

B+

Jet black powerfully built sort tracked a barnmate was asked some on the turn drawing away late while on own in 35.2, 59.3. Clearly has run, clearly fit (has turned in 45 drills since last year in preparation for debut). Think she can run as far as they card 'em. Was in blinkers; Blanc up. Like her sis she appears to have a mellow disposition.---Grade: B+

EBLOUISSANTE

Nov 5

HOL

6

1:15.1H

M

FT

B+

In blinkers; grand looker made a good run at barnmate Odeon and galloped out quite well while not asked in 38.1, 103.1, 115.0 out around the bend in 127.4. Not overly handy but can run forever.---Grade: B+

As you can read, Andy liked what he saw, and these notes gave me the confidence to bet my opinion that Shirreffs had this one ready to roll and that a par effort for the class was likely. As it turned out, she bettered par by a few points with a 93 BRIS Speed Ratingwhen winning easily by 4 1/2 lengths.

The 7-to-5 price seemed more than fair both before and after the race, but some disagreed even after this tour de force, citing that her price was suppressed because of her family. I don't disagree that Eblouissante would have been a higher price if she weren't Zenyatta's half sister and/or hadn't been written about for the past year and a half, but I do disagree that the extra money because of that automatically makes her an underlay.

Assessing her chances to win the race at 50% had nothing to do with knowing that there'd be a lot more casual money bet on her. Obviously I knew that was in play and a big reason I was so surprised at the 4-to-1 morning line, but just because she may have been 2-to-1 without the Zenyatta connection doesn't mean she didn't offer value at 7-to-5 if I thought she'd win 50% of the time.

All this discussion is not to say that every favorite who wins by daylight is a good bet, but knowing Eblouissante would take casual money didn't automatically make her a bad bet either.

Welcome to the TwinSpires Blog. Our contributors will be continually updating posts to offer commentary, insight, advice and expert opinions on horse racing and wagering. The goal is to help you win more and become a better all around horse player.

Contributors

TwinSpires' horse racing author, handicapper, and podcast host, Derek Simon of Denver, Colo. offers his insightful, humorous and sometimes controversial take on the horse racing industry. He even publishes the ROI on the picks he gives out.

The Director of Marketing for Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) and a lifelong Thoroughbred racing enthusiast and astute handicapper, Ed joined Churchill Downs Inc. following nine years as a writer and editor with Thoroughbred Times.

A writer and editor who has been following horse racing for fifteen years. Peter has written books for the Daily Racing Form Press; Crown; and Simon and Schuster; among other publishers, and regular features in The Horseplayer Magazine.