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Thursday, January 17, 2013

General Communication Dispatch

Since our last “window of opportunity” update on December 28, Silver had entered, and has since, resurfaced from a near-term downside-price target window spanning from 29.61 through 26.65.

Despite silvers 7.87% recovery rally from recent lows, and though the aforementioned window of opportunity has closed for now, the window shall nonetheless remain. As stated in previous reports, odds are split as to whether the window remains closed for good, or if it will reopen for another opportunity to lock-in yet another lower-risk price point for adding to physical deliveries that build upon one’s initial or already substantial stack.

The short-term trend has been up for 8 straight sessions, which opens a turn-window period for another pullback. In this regard, and as mentioned in previous updates, January 18 now marks proximity for a potential turn-pivot high (+/- one session). The next turn window for a pivot high or low rests on February 6 (+/- one session).

Per the daily chart, though it could change with a continuance of persistent price advances, the latest move up from 29.61 appears corrective thus far. This suggests that lower lows are possible over the short to near-term. We have already discussed in previous updates as to whether the intermediate (4) wave holds a major low at 26.07. There is a fair chance that it shall however; the jury of price action and time has yet to complete arbitration of the matter. The third party in said arbitration is the physical market, which in our view shall have the final say over the paper bulls and bears.

General

Following this “Quick Silver” update, we will share our opinions on the monetary, political, and economic quandaries collectively faced by America, all nations, and every sovereign individual across the globe.

Thereafter, in a subsequent dispatch, we will post the lifetime performance stats of Elliott Wave Technology’s trading and investment strategies through 2012.

Despite the perpetual challenges that have existed from time immemorial surrounding the timing of trades and investments across the financial sphere, the record will show that in spite of all associated imperfections, one can prevail in the never-ending battle to beat the markets.

Bottom line

There are several ways to consistently profit over time in financial markets. The first and foremost method of amassing then booking profits is to invest or trade in the direction of prevailing trends as defined by nothing other than the price action itself.

The major challenge in pursing such an endeavor lies with two essential variables. One of the essential variables is the timeframe or the time horizon upon which one attempts to identify and capture a portion of increased value achieved amid such trends. The second essential variable is the means by which one determines when an actionable change in trend occurs relative to the specific time horizon of interest in concert with the price behavior of the underlying instrument in which one has so chosen to engage.

Even amid the best-laid plans, periods of whipsaw, (which are typically sideways trends, choppy, and directionless for any meaningful duration) are the Achilles heel of trend followers in every time-frame. The condition not only produces sub-par forward progress, drawdowns, and general frustration, but also can actually trip up an otherwise historically successful strategy producing instead, a succession of small to considerable losses for a considerable period of time.

As in life, such is the nature of engagement in the financial markets; there is no escaping such inherent and naturally occurring challenges. We remind you however, as in adequately preparing for and facing each of life’s challenges to the very best of one’s ability, the market like life itself, takes no mercy upon those who do not take prudent measures to prepare for, endure, and prevail in said arena’s despite the natural reality of such harsh challenges therein.

Most individuals ignore the bulk of their financial exposure in a permanent state of ignorant passiveness hoping beyond all reason that markets and values always go up over the long haul. Sheeple such as these fail to take anything of serious merit into account, namely the loss of purchasing power of their financial resources and the ultimate state of their investments at the most critical time at which they are going to rely upon the said value thereof the most.

Other individuals follow hunches, speculate on emotion, do what everyone else is doing, what their broker tells them, or they bounce around following the latest “hot hand” in the hopes of amassing consistent and respectable returns for their hard-earned money.

Before investing a dime, the first question one must answer with great thought is to define the specific intent and purpose for investing or trading ones surplus capital. Secondly, what level of risk and loss is one willing to endure in the pursuit of such purpose? Lastly, by what means does one intend to manage and take full responsibility for the outcomes associated with the conscious deployment of surplus resource capital.

Rather than sounding alarm bells upon the observation of every five wave advance or decline in a price series, and rather than building up a never-ending bullish or bearish storyline, which only serves to feed useless emotions, with time and experience, we have learned to dispatch our market observations and position guidance via applied strategies. Our forthcoming lifetime performance record shall illustrate clearly that these impartial proactive management and engagement strategies have proven themselves rather worthy over extended periods in varying time-frames and markets.

Having said all that, the aforementioned paradox piece on the multitude of quandaries we face, which discusses the alignment of one’s productive efforts with one’s beliefs and integrity, calls for some serious hedging in the form of tangible assets with ZERO counter party risk. As such, we recommend upon serious and thoughtful review that individuals consider reducing their financial resource exposure to mainstream markets, institutions, and banking systems to an absolute minimum.