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EA Sports ran a simulation of the Super Bowl XLVIII match-up this coming Sunday between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks using Madden NFL 25and wound up predicting a Broncos victory with a score of 31-28.

The simulation had Denver toppling Seattle in dramatic fashion: Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch brought the team to within two points on a last-second 27-yard touchdown run before the team successfully scored two more on the two-point conversion attempt to take the game to overtime. The sim then showed Seattle stalling out in the first possession of overtime before Broncos kicker Matt Prater booted the game-winning field goal. Broncos quarterback (and noted Papa John's pizza spokesman) Peyton Manning earned the Super Bowl MVP award thanks to his 322-yard, three touchdown performance in the simulation.

EA's Super Bowl simulations have a decent track record, as the publisher has successfully named the Super Bowl winners in eight out of the last ten years by using the latest roster files in the current Madden game. If that's not a testament to the work of Madden Ratings Czar Donny Moore, then we're not sure what is. Head past the break to see the list of EA Sports' Super Bowl predictions in recent years and each game's actual outcome.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>denver-broncoseaEA-Sportsea-tiburonElectronic-Artsfootballmadden-25madden-nfl-25marshawn-lynchmicrosoftnflpeyton-manningplaystationPredictionsps3ps4richard-shermanrussell-wilsonseattle-seahawkssimulationsportssuper-bowlsuper-bowl-48super-bowl-xlviiixboxxbox-oneMon, 27 Jan 2014 17:30:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2012/04/27/nintendo-expects-to-double-3ds-sales-by-this-time-next-year/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/04/27/nintendo-expects-to-double-3ds-sales-by-this-time-next-year/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/04/27/nintendo-expects-to-double-3ds-sales-by-this-time-next-year/#commentsCall it ambitious (if you're feeling nice), or potentially bananas (if you're feeling realistic), but no matter what you call it, Nintendo's clearly not joking around with its hardware sales forecast. The company let loose a variety of predictions for the current fiscal year (ending March 31, 2013) this week, which predicts movement of 18.5 million 3DS units into consumers' backpacks and purses worldwide.

That's not a huge increase from the console's first fiscal year (April 1, 2011 through March 31, 2012), which saw 17.13 million 3DS units sold. And with big hitters like New Super Mario Bros. 2 and Animal Crossing on the way, it seems likely that Nintendo will surpass those numbers and get to "adjust" their forecast upwards come investor call time. "Ooops, we made way more money than we expected," Nintendo head Satoru Iwata might tell investors, with a coy smile. "Please forget about last year's major financial issues." At least that's how we picture these things going.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>3dsdsfinancialsforecastfy-2013new-super-mario-bros-2nintendopredictionssalessales-forecastFri, 27 Apr 2012 10:30:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2012/03/13/expect-shinji-mikamis-next-game-in-2013-or-beyond/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/03/13/expect-shinji-mikamis-next-game-in-2013-or-beyond/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/03/13/expect-shinji-mikamis-next-game-in-2013-or-beyond/#commentsIn December last year we predicted that Shinji Mikami's Zenimax-owned development studio, Tango, wouldn't produce any actual products within the next year -- on account of all the free Skyrimit received -- and it looks like we were right.

Mikami told 4Gamer, as translated by Andriasang, that Tango would not launch any games in 2012, but leave itself a rather wide berth for producing something after 2013. The new, unannounced title uses an external engine, but it has been customized to the point that it is almost an internal one, Mikami said, leaving out any other specifics about the game. He did note that Skyrim "stimulated him as a creator," though.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>2013microsoftpcplaystationPredictionsps3Shinji-MikamiskyrimtangoxboxTue, 13 Mar 2012 21:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/03/madden-predicts-saints-win-super-bowl-xliv/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/03/madden-predicts-saints-win-super-bowl-xliv/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/03/madden-predicts-saints-win-super-bowl-xliv/#comments
If the "Madden Curse" is the unflapping revenge exacted by the fowl spirit of the Great Turducken, its devoured body unceremoniously carved up by the bare hands of John Madden on national television those many years ago (seriously, go wikipedia that joint), then the annual "Madden NFL Super Bowl Simulation" is just ... plain math.

In the latest case of crunching the numbers, Madden 10 has predicted the New Orleans Saints to be winners of this Sunday's Super Bowl XLIV over the Indianapolis Colts. It was a real nail biter, EA recalls: "with minutes left in the game the duo of Joseph Addai and Peyton Manning put the Colts back on top with a go-ahead touchdown pass. With the game hanging in the balance, Drew Brees hits David Thomas for an 11-yard touchdown and the game winning score." The final: 35-31.

But more intriguing than the projected outcome of a mere sporting event is EA Sports' coveted simulation formula, which has become scary good. Not only did it correctly predict the winners of the conference championship games a few Sundays ago within a three-point margin of error, according to EA Sports, the formula accurately played out last year's Super Bowl down to the final score and individual player stats, which begs the question: What can't it predict?

We'd like to put a request in to EA to simulate next week's retail showdown: BioShock 2 vs. Dante's Inferno. Place your bets now!

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>eaea-sportsElectronic-Artsmaddenmadden-10madden-nfl-10MicrosoftNintendopredictionssimulationsuper-bowlsuper-bowl-xlivsuperbowlWiiXbox-360Wed, 03 Feb 2010 20:40:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/02/analyst-ps3-continues-to-set-records-wii-and-software-sales-do/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/02/analyst-ps3-continues-to-set-records-wii-and-software-sales-do/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/02/analyst-ps3-continues-to-set-records-wii-and-software-sales-do/#comments
Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia says that Sony is in for a good 2010 -- he expects the PlayStation 3 to experience its largest year-over-year growth from last month's sales among all consoles, and for Sony to beat its own record from the month before for the console's best sales ever. The PS3 appears to be on a roll, and January sales are expected to continue the trend.

Bhatia also says that the Wii's sales are being hurt by "meaningful shortages," and points out that just 28% of the stores NPD checked in January had Nintendo's console in stock. Bhatia also suggests that Xbox 360 sales would be up slightly, due to a big GameStop promotion, and that software sales would be down in general. Not unexpected, given that January almost never matches up to the frenzy of the holiday season, but 2010 has already started off with a bang in terms of quality releases. NPD's official info, released soon, will let us know if there were sales to match.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystarvind-bhatiagamestopjanuary-2010MicrosoftNintendonpdpredictionspromotionreportssalessoftwaresonyWiiXbox-360Tue, 02 Feb 2010 20:45:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/07/pachter-predicts-another-xbox-360-price-cut-in-2010/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/07/pachter-predicts-another-xbox-360-price-cut-in-2010/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/07/pachter-predicts-another-xbox-360-price-cut-in-2010/#comments
If you read the first installment in the latest installment of "Pachter Predixx," you already know that the analyst's new report praises the PS3 for its resilience during these troubled times. According to the report, the PS3 saw an 85-percent year-over-year sales increase in November, while the Wii and Xbox 360 suffered sales declines. This reversal in fortune leads Pachter and his Wedbush associates to a surprising conclusion: "We think that the PS3 will again outsell the Xbox 360 in November and December, prompting a price cut some time early next year."

Pachter adds that while Microsoft "has the ability to lower price yet again," it probably won't do so until "it begins to lose significant market share to Sony." As with all conjecture -- even when delivered by professional conjecture conjurers -- we suggest considering Pachter's educated guess as just that: a guess.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>industrymichael-pachtermicrosoftpachterpredictionsprice-cutsalesxbox-360Mon, 07 Dec 2009 15:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/29/after-game-1-mlb-09s-world-series-predictions-look-good/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/29/after-game-1-mlb-09s-world-series-predictions-look-good/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/29/after-game-1-mlb-09s-world-series-predictions-look-good/#commentsAt first, we doubted MLB 09's simulation of the World Series between the NY Yankees and the Philadelphia ... Phillies (a bit redundant, no?). However, the Phillies' dominant performance in Game 1 of the series made us reconsider our position.

According to the San Diego Studio-developed baseball game, the World Series will last all seven games this year, with Philadelphia ultimately the victor. So far, MLB has correctly predicted the victor of Game 1.

This may be upsetting to New York fans, especially as the Yankees are the heavily favored team in this match-up. However, video game AI has had a pretty successful track record so far. Look at Madden, which has managed to correctly predict the winner of 6 out of the last 7 Super Bowl games. We'll find out soon enough if MLB has the same accuracy.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>baseballmlbmlb-09mlb-09-the-showphilliespredictionsworld-seriesyankeesThu, 29 Oct 2009 00:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/09/eedar-game-sales-slowdown-turned-around-in-september/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/09/eedar-game-sales-slowdown-turned-around-in-september/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/09/eedar-game-sales-slowdown-turned-around-in-september/#comments
2009 hasn't been the best year for the games industry. Month after month, we hear reports of reduced sales figures, company closures, and layoffs. Things may be turning around, though, as EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes software sales during September 2009 have actually gone up from 2008, the first time in seven months thanks to strong sales of Halo 3: ODST, Wii Sports Resort, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 2, Madden NFL 10 and Batman: Arkham Asylum. All in all, software sales should come in at $715 million, a 16% increase over last year.

The music genre may be slowing down, but Divnich notes that "both Guitar Hero 5 and The Beatles: Rock Band have performed at levels ahead of retail expectations," with sales predicted at 800k and 1 million units respectively. The same analyst at EEDAR previously predicted that Guitar Hero 5 would outsell The Beatles 2:1. With NPD sales results dropping next week, we'll soon see how accurate Divnich's latest analysis is.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystbatman-arkham-asylumeedarguitar-hero-5halo-3-odstjesse-divnichmadden-10music-gamespredictionssalesthe-beatles-rock-bandwii-sports-resortFri, 09 Oct 2009 02:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2009/07/15/pachter-predicts-game-enabled-apple-tv-by-2013/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/07/15/pachter-predicts-game-enabled-apple-tv-by-2013/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/07/15/pachter-predicts-game-enabled-apple-tv-by-2013/#comments
Wedbush Morgan analyst -- and video game prognosticator -- Michael Pachter is back with more predictions for the future! Speaking with IndustryGamers, "The Pacht" said he believes it's only a matter of time (three to four years) before Apple takes a stab at console gaming by way of a "game-enabled" version of the Apple TV. "Apple TV is the device that they can turn into a console, and they have essentially the same goals as Microsoft -- to turn Apple TV into an entertainment and Internet hub," he proposed.

The game industry Nostradamus figures that "If [Apple] can get enough iPod users to download games, it's a natural that they can ultimately convince a large number of these users to buy a game-enabled Apple TV," for which he believes "a 2012 or 2013 launch" would be most likely.

Pachter feels that Apple will start off conservatively with regard to the scope of these "console" games, but eventually aim to take on the best its competitors have to offer. "We'd get cool stuff like World of Goo or Geometry Wars," he predicts, "But probably not super cool stuff like Gears of War until they bought a few developers." Of course, Apple could just fulfill another long-running prophecy and buy Electronic Arts.

PSP Fanboy has been making predictions every year for the last two years now. We found incredible success the first time around. Did we strike gold in 2008? Let's find out.

PSP Prediction #1: New limited edition PSP bundles with high-profile games and peripherals."SCEA will release a special gold PSP-2000 system that includes God of War: Chains of Olympus and a Memory Stick for $200." Yes! We got that one right ... almost The God of War bundle came with a red PSP and -- we guessed it -- retailed for $200. Unfortunately, we were wrong that "Sony will release a PSP system bundled with GPS in the US." Drats.

PSP Prediction #2: The PSP Store will debut a huge franchise exclusively for download.The PlayStation Store was successfully launched this year, so we get that right. The Store includes Network-exclusive games like Syphon Filter and Super Stardust Portable. They're not "huge" games, but they're still pretty big titles. Japan has also fully embraced the Store, offering all first-party titles as downloadable games.

PSP Prediction #3: Square Enix will bring tons of PS1 love to PSP."PSP fans will find that Square Enix will resurrect many of its long-forgotten PS1 franchises back to the PSP." We were right about that one ... but only in Japan. However, Square Enix showed some more love for PSP by moving games like Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep, Dissidia: Final Fantasy, The 3rd Birthday and Final Fantasy Agito XIII to our favorite handheld.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>predictionspspTue, 30 Dec 2008 19:09:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2008/12/30/a-look-back-our-predictions-for-2008/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/12/30/a-look-back-our-predictions-for-2008/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/12/30/a-look-back-our-predictions-for-2008/#comments
At the very beginning of the year, we made some bold predictions about the state of PS3 in 2008. Let's see how well those turned out for us, shall we?

PS3 Prediction #1: Warner Bros. will go Blu-ray exclusive.Looks like we were right about this one. In fact, Warner Bros. went Blu-ray exclusive just days after we made this prediction. We were a bit wrong in assuming that the HD format war would continue in 2008. We're glad to be wrong about that one.

PS3 Prediction #2: A new color for PS3 will be introduced.We were right about this one, especially the part about a new color being bundled with Metal Gear Solid 4. It didn't take long before the "Limited Edition" systems were on eBay. We also stated that "America may introduce a new premium bundle in White that includes an even larger hard drive and a hotly anticipated game." We were wrong about the White color, but we got the premium bundle correct: an Uncharted bundle was released late this year with a 160GB hard drive.

PS3 Prediction #3: Video rental service will begin this year.Three in a row? Nice! At E3, Sony announced plans for a video rental service, which is now available in Japan and America. We were slightly off in thinking Sony wouldn't offer fully downloadable movies, thinking "Sony won't want to cannibalize its own Blu-ray sales." The video rental service doesn't offer HD downloads, but SD movies can be purchased and even transfered over to the PSP.

Here's a little-known fact: If industry analysts go too long without foretelling something - anything - they break out in a nasty case of hives. That may be why Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian has come forward with his latest prediction, namely that Nintendo will release a new Zeldagame for the Wii sometime in 2009.

While anticipating "potentially fewer hit titles" across the board next year, the soothsayer notes to Gamespot that his prophecy for a follow-up to Twilight Princess, as well as a new "Princess Peach adventure," is little more than guesswork at this point. Traditionally, Nintendo has released just a single principle Zelda title per console cycle, though given that the last game started life on the GameCube gives Sebastian's prediction a bit more weight, if only slightly. As for us, we gave up trying to read Nintendo's body language a long time ago, and have just resigned ourselves to take the waggles as they come.

So, out of all of our recent E3 Nintendo briefing (Wii) predictions, which do you think is the most likely? If you could pick only one that you had to guess was going to happen, which would it be? What's your biggest hope for tomorrow's conference?

Tuesday can't get here soon enough. There are so many possibilities for Nintendo's big event at E3 that it was difficult to compile them all into a neat little list, and that's without even considering the rest of the show! Even so, some things are predictable, and we've taken a peek at our trusty magic 8-ball and prepared a play-along bingo card for keeping track of all of the awesome Tuesday will bring.

Tuesday can't get here soon enough. There are so many possibilities for Nintendo's big event at E3 that it was difficult to compile them all into a neat little list, and that's without even considering the rest of the show! Even so, some things are predictable, and we've taken a peek at our trusty magic 8-ball and prepared a play-along bingo card for keeping track of all of the awesome Tuesday will bring. Animal Crossing Wii? Almost certainly. Wii colors finally? Perhaps!

Click each square above to read more about what we think we will -- and won't -- see at this year's Nintendo conference, or, if you're feeling expansive, check out our full predictions for the show as a whole. We're not doing anything so wild as predicting anything Mother-related, but we are laying out some pretty bold statements for this year's E3 ... and one of them may have just been confirmed, and in the coolest way possible. While you're reading, make sure you check out our DS-centric predictions, too.

Nintendo's conference begins Tuesday, July 15, at 9:00am PT / 12:00 pm ET. Don't miss the full schedule (so far) of E3 briefings, as well as the other bingo cards from around the network.

The soothsayers at analyst group DFC Intelligence have revised their already rosy outlook for the game industry in 2009, predicting that the market, including consoles, PC and online games, could now reach a mind-blowing $57 billion by next year. DFC foresees that much of this growth will be driven by (surprise!) the Wii, a platform DFC's David Cole feels "has the chance to be one of the best selling systems of all-time."

Looking further ahead, DFC backed off of its previous prediction that annual PS3 game sales would surpass those on the Wii by 2012, now stating that the pair will simply be equals. Still, with the lion's share of top selling titles for the Wii coming from Nintendo itself, fellow analyst Jeremy Miller adds that "for many third party publishers this means they will have much greater success on the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3, even if Wii sales continue to be strong."

But what of the PC? Oh, there's love there as well, with gaming on the personal computer expected to reach an impressive $19 billion on its own by 2013, no doubt steered by online sales, which exceeded a staggering $7 billion in 2007. If DFC is on point with its prophecy, the future is so bright, we may just have to reach into the drawer for some shades.

Speaking of GTA4, Pachter doesn't think the game will lead to a significant bump in system sales for either the PS3 or Xbox 360. He forecasts the Wii will again dominate monthly console sales with 750,000 units sold, compared to 250,000 Xbox 360s and 225,000 PS3s. In other news, we predict the sun will rise in the east tomorrow.

Over at GameDaily, analyst group DFC Intelligence has made a few observations regarding recent trends in the video game industry, and has a prediction for the result of the current-generation "console wars." According to DFC, the Nintendo Wii will ultimately secure its first place position, with the PS3 overtaking the Xbox 360 in 2009 for a strong second-place showing.

In terms of longevity, DFC believes that by 2012 the Playstation 3 will surpass the Wii in terms of software sales (no doubt assuming a staying power similar to the console's little brother, the PS2). They also predict that the slowed economy in North America will actually benefit video game sales, as high gas prices encourage consumers to stay home and play games, rather than going out. Several other interesting tidbits and predictions can be found in their full report.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>console-warsdfcdfc-intelligencefuturemicrosoftnintendopredictionsPS3sonyWiiXbox-360Fri, 30 May 2008 02:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2008/03/03/every-wii-owner-will-apparently-want-a-ps3/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/03/03/every-wii-owner-will-apparently-want-a-ps3/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/03/03/every-wii-owner-will-apparently-want-a-ps3/#commentsiSuppli (makers of iAnalyze) has determined PS3 to be the victor of the current "console war." There are millions of Wii owners right now, and many will likely want to upgrade to a new system in a few years time. 2008 is already being hailed as the PS3's big turnaround; Wii owners will look to it as their second console of choice.

This is in part due to their assumption that Sony will slash the price of the PS3 again this year to entice the Wii audience. Blu-ray dominance also plays a part in this, they say. Mix in some AAA titles as well as the variety of pick up and play titles on the PSN, we'd say that there will be a big jump in PS3 sales, too. But whether or not it's due to the Wii audience seeking a more powerful console is anyone's guess. We'll just say it's because the PS3 will rock this entire year.

Man, being a video game analyst must be a sweet job. You can put out allsortsofcrazypredictions and no one will ever call you on it if you end up being wrong, right? Well, yes, right, until today, because today Kotaku has completed a massive project to rank the truthiness of predictions from some of the most prominent video game industry analysts out there.

The results show that even the best prognosticators out there aren't all that infallible -- Michael Pachter, Jeetil Patel and Mitshuhiro Osawa all top out the scale at 60% correct. That might not sound so good, but it looks absolutely glowing when compared to Billy Pidgeon's dismal 10% truthfulness rating (with 20% still to be determined). Want to avoid his ignominious fate? Just be like Piers Harding-Rolls and predict stuff so far into the future no one can tell how accurate your calls are until you've moved on to used car sales or something.

The full piece takes an interesting look behind the scenes in analyst-land and provides some good reasons to be cautious of all those stories with headlines that start with "Analyst predicts ..." Do yourself a favor, take a few minutes and give it a read.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystanalystsanalyzekotakupachterpredictpredictionsPS3rankingsWiiXbox-360Mon, 18 Feb 2008 16:43:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2008/01/02/pachter-states-the-obvious-strong-sales-in-early-08/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/01/02/pachter-states-the-obvious-strong-sales-in-early-08/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/01/02/pachter-states-the-obvious-strong-sales-in-early-08/#commentsOh, that Michael Pachter. Even when he's running off at the mouth, he manages to at least keep us entertained. Now he's back with some terribly obvious predictions on industry sales for the early months of 2008. Pachter's latest revelation? Due to the strong upcoming release schedule, gaming sales will continue to stretch for the heights. Now, we understand that Pachter is an expert and we are but peons here, but, really -- wasn't that a little ... predictable? In keeping with the spirit of prediction here, we have one of our own: we anticipate that the Wii and DS will continue to be snapped up whenever and wherever they appear on shelves for a few months, due to all the people who couldn't get their hands on one during the holidays.

Every year, PSP Fanboy made predictions on what will happen in the year ahead. So far, they've been quite successful with many of their visions of the future coming true. Now, we'll have some fun with the PS3. Here's what we're seeing in our crystal ball ...

PS3 Prediction #1: Warner Bros. will go Blu-ray exclusive.Rumors have been quite persistent about this major movie studio's upcoming HD plans. With Blu-ray consistently outpacing HD DVD sales, we believe that Warner Bros. will finally feel the need to choose one format over the other. Of course, Toshiba's more than willing to get its moneybags ready for HD DVD. The war will still continue through 2008.

PS3 Prediction #2: A new color for PS3 will be introduced.Expect some sexy new colors for PS3, many of which won't appear in the US. Our European and Japanese friends will get special skinned systems for high profile games, like Metal Gear Solid. America may introduce a new premium bundle in White that includes an even larger hard drive and a hotly anticipated game.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>joystiqfeaturespredictionsTue, 01 Jan 2008 20:45:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2008/01/01/5-psp-predictions-for-2008/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/01/01/5-psp-predictions-for-2008/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/01/01/5-psp-predictions-for-2008/#comments
An annual tradition for PSP Fanboy continues. We're going to make five predictions for the upcoming year. Will we continue our track record so far?

PSP Prediction #1: New limited edition PSP bundles with high-profile games and peripherals.SCEA will release a special gold PSP-2000 system that includes God of War: Chains of Olympus and a Memory Stick for $200. Maybe it'll look something like the fan-made system? We hope so. Also, we're hopeful that Square Enix will release a limited edition bundle with Crisis Core, just as they did in Japan. Finally, Sony will release a PSP system bundled with GPS in the US.

PSP Prediction #2: The PSP Store will debut a huge franchise exclusively for download.The PSP Store will get a major game exclusively for download. Don't be surprised if we see either a new LocoRoco or Metal Gear Solid game that'll be available on the Store only. We expect announcements at GDC and E3 later this year.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>joystiqfeaturespredictionsTue, 01 Jan 2008 20:15:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2008/01/01/how-accurate-were-psp-fanboys-2007-predictions/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/01/01/how-accurate-were-psp-fanboys-2007-predictions/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/01/01/how-accurate-were-psp-fanboys-2007-predictions/#comments
As 2006 came to a close, we took a look into our crystal ball and dared to make a few predictions about what would happen in 2007. How did we fare? Let's take a look ...

PSP Prediction #1: Sony will introduce a new portable addition to the PlayStation brand.We thought Sony would focus much more on the media features of the PSP by adding a new XMB-compatible portable. "It'll be smaller than a PSP, feature a video-out, and will be compatible with a revamped PlayStation Store." Looks like the PSP-2000 did exactly that ... but unlike what we predicted, the system didn't include a hard drive.

PSP Prediction #2: Revamped PlayStation store features movies and music.We were right about the new PC-enabled PSP Store, and we correctly predicted that Sony would totally snub Mac users. We were also right that Sony would can the failing Connect service. "The PlayStation Store will expand to the PC (but not the Mac), and will offer games, movies, and music for all of Sony's gaming and non-gaming platforms." Unfortunately, we were wrong about movies and music. Looks like Sony's been slow on delivering a multimedia delivery service for the PSP. However, we're glad we were right about downloadable games.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>joystiqfeaturespredictionsTue, 01 Jan 2008 12:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2007/09/19/dfc-predicts-bright-future-for-games-dim-one-for-xbox-360/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/09/19/dfc-predicts-bright-future-for-games-dim-one-for-xbox-360/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/09/19/dfc-predicts-bright-future-for-games-dim-one-for-xbox-360/#commentsFiled under: Nintendo DS, PC, Sony PlayStation 3, Nintendo Wii, Microsoft Xbox 360Another day, another extremelylong-rangeanalysis of the video game market's future. This time the prediction comes from DFC Intelligence through a press release stating the total worldwide market for video games could grow to a staggering $47 billion by 2009 (from $33 billion in 2006). DFC foresees the strongest growth coming from the PC market (driven by online game revenue) and the portable market (driven by the Nintendo DS, which "could eventually become the best selling game system ever in five years" according to DFC's David Cole).

That's nice about the industry growth and all, but the real red meat for the fanboys comes later in the release, when DFC reveals they've lowered their forecast for the performance of the Xbox 360. The currently-hot system "will need to build a strong base outside North America to avoid being in a fairly distant third," Cole said in a statement sure to rile up the Microsoft Defense Forces. As for the battle for first, Cole thinks the Wii will dominate through 2008 with the PS3 coming on strong in 2009, possibly leading to an odd long-term situation where Nintendo has sold more hardware but Sony generates more software revenue.

We at Joystiq think this all this prognosticating is a bit shortsighted. After all, it doesn't take into account how the surging interest in the Dreamcast will lead to Sega's triumphant return to the hardware market and eventual domination of the same by 2023. Hey, if analysts can make wild, long-term predictions, then so can we!

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystDFCDSgrowthmarketPCpredictionsPS3WiiXbox-360Wed, 19 Sep 2007 20:59:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2007/09/19/analysts-ps3-will-overtake-xbox-360-by-2009/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/09/19/analysts-ps3-will-overtake-xbox-360-by-2009/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/09/19/analysts-ps3-will-overtake-xbox-360-by-2009/#comments
One of our favorite aspects of covering the video game industry are analyst predictions. Oftentimes, they're entirely off base, but every now and then, they get things right. Hopefully, DFC Intelligence's new report will be spot on. The company released several reports predicting the PlayStation 3 will overtake the Xbox 360 in overall console sales due to a massive surge in the gaming industry in 2009.

While the research group doesn't believe the PS3 will move ahead of the Wii in total hardware numbers, it predicts the PS3 will generate more software revenue than Nintendo's console by 2012. "We could have a situation where the Wii sells more hardware units, but by 2012 the PlayStation 3 is generating more software revenue," said David Cole, a DFC analyst.

However, this isn't the first time a research group has predicted Sony's dominance early next decade. With so many analysts coming together saying the same thing, one of them is bound to be right ... right? Let's just hope they're not all looking at the same report!

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystpredictionsPS3-FTWresearchsales numbersSalesNumbersWed, 19 Sep 2007 11:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2007/08/21/more-analysts-predict-ps3-ahead-of-xbox-in-july/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/08/21/more-analysts-predict-ps3-ahead-of-xbox-in-july/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/08/21/more-analysts-predict-ps3-ahead-of-xbox-in-july/#commentsFiled under: Sony PlayStation 3, Microsoft Xbox 360, BusinessPachter ain't the only analyst predicting the July NPD numbers will show the PS3 has finally outsold the Xbox 360. Turns out Lazard's Colin Sebastian predicts the same thing, saying the PS3 price cut gave the console its expected sales bump for July, while the Xbox 360 hardware issues finally coming to light will cause sales to lag. The Wii and DS will keep doing what they do and make Nintendo gobs of cash.

Yes, you can all release your collective "duh" now, but it's still Sebastian's job to say it. He says Activision should see a 200% growth in July, based on Guitar Hero and Transformer sales, whereas EA should expect a 10% decline (remember, this doesn't involve Madden '08 money). Well, whatever the stars tell the analysts, all will be revealed this Thursday by the NPD numbers.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystcolinsebastianlazardpachterpredictionsPS3sebastianXbox-360Tue, 21 Aug 2007 17:45:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2007/07/10/ds-daily-your-e3-predictions/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/07/10/ds-daily-your-e3-predictions/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/07/10/ds-daily-your-e3-predictions/#commentsWe've been laying down some predictions -- albeit ridiculous, silly predictions -- for quite a while now, and while we may just get serious later ('cause E3 is serious business), we thought it might be a good time to take a break and ask you what you think will happen at the new show. Got any hot predictions for DS announcements? Maybe a redesign (god, why?) or a price drop (if only)? Spill 'em!

Now that 2007 has started, there's a whole lot of potential for the PSP. In similar fashion to last year, I'll give you five PSP predictions, but be warned: these are far more daring than last year's incredibly accurate predictions. Feel free to disagree with me, or give your own predictions in the comments section.

PSP Prediction #1: Sony will introduce a new portable addition to the PlayStation brand.And it won't be a PSP redesign. In many ways, it will be exactly the same as the PSP: it will feature an upgradeable XMB that features Photos, Music and Videos. It will even be compatible with PSP accessories, such as the headset, GPS, and camera. Heck, it'll even play UMD movies. However, there's one thing it won't do: play games. The device will be set as a competitor to the iPod and will feature a portable hard drive. It'll be smaller than a PSP, feature a video-out, and will be compatible with a revamped PlayStation Store (see prediction #2).

PSP Prediction #2: Revamped PlayStation store features movies and music.The Connect brand will be abandoned as Sony moves its digital distribution ambitions to the PlayStation Store. PS3 owners will be able to download HD movies directly to their systems. The 1080P downloads will also include free access to PSP-formatted versions of the film as an added value. The PlayStation Store will expand to the PC (but not the Mac), and will offer games, movies, and music for all of Sony's gaming and non-gaming platforms. With unrestricted access to Columbia Pictures, and a large audience of media-hungry PS3 and PSP owners, the PlayStation Store will be successful (a very distant second next to Apple's iTunes Store).

PSP Prediction #3: A popular Microsoft franchise will appear on PSP.Although there are rumors that Microsoft plans to transform Zune into a gaming device, I think Microsoft will skip this generation's battle and support the PSP with one title from its library (which includes franchises like Halo, Gears of War, MechAssault). They've already allowed Majesco and THQ to publish multiple DS & GBA games, such as Age of Empires.

PSP Prediction #4: A future firmware upgrade will boost PSP speed to 333MHz.Sony will finally unlock the PSP's full technical potential by allowing developers to use all 333HMz of PSP's processing power (the system currently is limited to 222MHz). Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas Stories will be among the first games released to take advantage of the upgrade.

PSP Prediction #5: Expect tons of established franchises & far less original IPs.Okay, I wanted at least one sure-thing on this list. The PSP hasn't launched too many original IPs in its two-year life span. Publishers will look at sales and will continue to bring ports, remakes, and sequels to their established franchises. We'll see some of these announced or released throughout the year: Soul Calibur, Resident Evil, and yes, another Metal Gear Solid.

This might creep you out. Or not. Back in January, Ed wrote up a list of five predictions he had for the PSP for the year 2006. How many did he get right? You may be surprised. Let's take a look:

PSP Prediction #1: The UMD movie market will collapse. "It will continue to be priced too high and include the bare minimum in terms of value add (we should have predicted this for 2005)... Inventories will rise, prices will plummet and new content being delivered on the format will level off to something more sustainable by the market."Andrew comments: Ed hit this right on the head. UMDs were never priced the way they should've, and consumers responded. UMD continues Sony's line of producing unsuccessful media formats. Is Blu-Ray next?

PSP Prediction #2: The PSP will take on some very specific colors. "Count on at least two new colors, including a hot-rod red and a camo green, possibly marketed with or around the likes of, oh, let's say Gran Turismo 4 and Metal Gear Solid."Andrew comments: While the US market continues to be ignored, Sony has released a number of colors in international markets. Scarily, like the camo green PSP... for Metal Gear Solid. However, to think Gran Turismo 4 would ever come out was silly!

PSP Prediction #3: The PSP will allow you to access your PS3 from anywhere. "You'll be able to access PSP content content that is stored on your PS3's HDD (media, game saves, whatever) by accessing it via the PSP over a wifi Internet connection... You won't be streaming PS3 games or anything like that, but who needs memory sticks now?"Andrew comments: Wow. Great job predicting a feature months before its ever announced. Remote Play support does allow you to access your PS3's hard drive in almost the exact same way Ed mentioned. However, you won't be able to access it "from anywhere" until next year.

PSP Prediction #4: The PSP will get a price drop and then some. "Yeah, this one is a bit of a no-brainer, but we wanted to get at least 1 out of 5 right. The PSP will certainly see a price drop this year (likely sometime in the Fall, but possibly at E3). We expect the drop to be in the $50 dollar range."Andrew comments: The "no-brainer" proves to be the only prediction to not come true. Sony shed $50 by going Core, but that isn't a price drop, persay. Ed predicted free goodies to be given away with every system, but Sony proves with its Entertainment Pack that it wants you to pay for bad pack-in UMD movies.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>2006predictionsFri, 15 Dec 2006 14:50:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2006/10/13/wii-tops-pc-worlds-holiday-list/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/10/13/wii-tops-pc-worlds-holiday-list/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/10/13/wii-tops-pc-worlds-holiday-list/#commentsCheck it out -- the Wii is onceagain tops on a retail predictions list. Since PC World is a European retailer, it may not be much of a surprise that they've anointed Nintendo in the console wars for this holiday season (as there's no PS3 in store), but they've also picked the console as the hottest must-have when it comes to electronics.The Wii took the top spot of their ten predictions for the hottest movers and shakers of the season. Unlike many other lists, however, the Wii is nowhere near the most expensive item on this wishlist. Check after the jump for the full rundown.

PC World was one of the early outlets to offer preorders for the Wii in the UK ... looks like they've taken off!

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>EuropeholidaylistNintendoPC WorldPcWorldpredictionsretailsalesUKWiiFri, 13 Oct 2006 12:28:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2006/07/14/develop-everything-you-know-about-mmos-is-wrong-apparently-/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/07/14/develop-everything-you-know-about-mmos-is-wrong-apparently-/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/07/14/develop-everything-you-know-about-mmos-is-wrong-apparently-/#commentsFiled under: Online, MMO, BusinessThomas Bidaux of NCsoft Europe didn't pull any punches with his presentation at the UK's Develop conference. Instead, the MMO giant's director of product development outlined four major ways in which the MMO world will be turned on its head. Or, rather, the 'online' world -- rather than limit himself to MMOs, Thomas talked about online games as a whole.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bidauxdevelopdevelop conferencedevelop06DevelopConferencefuturemmommo designmmo developmentMmoDesignMmoDevelopmentmmorpgncsoftnotespredictionstalksthomas bidauxThomasBidauxFri, 14 Jul 2006 07:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2006/05/04/rumor-get-a-wii-for-free/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/05/04/rumor-get-a-wii-for-free/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/05/04/rumor-get-a-wii-for-free/#commentsA tipster sent in some information on what he believes Nintendo's Wii pricing will look like to
Infendo yesterday evening. The tip says that the prospective Wii customer would essentially get their Wii for free if
they succeeded to purchase either 4 games for the console or 3 games for the console and an extra controller with the
nunchuck attachment. Obviously, without official backup we have to assume this is all lies, but it would be an
interesting way to "sell" the console and the proposed cost of $199.99 falls in line with current
predictions of pricing.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>infendonintendopredictionspricingwiiThu, 04 May 2006 09:39:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2006/05/02/pitchford-predicts-ps360/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/05/02/pitchford-predicts-ps360/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/05/02/pitchford-predicts-ps360/#commentsA few weeks ago I was all set to link
to a random editorial predicting that Microsoft and Sony would eventually join forces. My editors nixed the piece as
rabid fanboy crap, but apparently they never talked to Gearbox
Prez Randy Pitchford:

I still hold onto my prediction from a couple years back that, eventually, Sony
will be licensing the video game operating system software from Microsoft. Perhaps Sony's experiences with their
new online initiative will actually make that difficult-to-imagine step a little easier... If Microsoft can ever
figure out how to gain traction and trust as a gaming platform in Japan, I believe that the two companies will rapidly
desire to become partners instead of competitors. It sounds counter to expectations at first because we are so caught
up in the competition, but I assure you that I could explain why the concept of an eventual partnership between Sony
and Microsoft has merit.

Actually, the rabid fanboy went a little further and said MS would buy out
Sony's video game business all together (Like I said, he was rabid). Fortunately for Sony, Kutaragi has sworn he will
literally enter the Fourth Dimension and reverse time if this occurs, preventing what surely must be considered console
war Armegeddon.

Pitchford's comments are part of Next-Gen.biz Q&A that talks to various industry
bigshots about the PS3, Blu-Ray and Sony's online strategy. Definitely worth a read.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>predictionsTue, 02 May 2006 08:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2006/03/25/prediction-1-virtual-world-to-rule-them-all/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/03/25/prediction-1-virtual-world-to-rule-them-all/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/03/25/prediction-1-virtual-world-to-rule-them-all/#commentsFiled under: Culture, Online, Simulations, MMOThis Wired piece by
technology thinker Steven Johnson is a neat summary of a prediction about virtual worlds that's becoming increasingly
common. If you take a step back from the MMOs and other online pursuits of today, you see a lot of standalone bubbles
of activity with one common factor--you. However, you can't cross the boundaries between worlds, taking your Halo
2 friends list and reputation into EverQuest or sending your Animal Crossing characters messages
from your mobile.

The prediction is that, relatively soon in the future, this won't be the case. As in
The Matrix, as in Neal Stephenson's Snow Crash, one virtual world (or metaverse, if you prefer) will
connect everything together:

Within a decade, then, the notion of separate game worlds will probably
seem like a quaint artifact of the frontier days of virtual reality. You'll still be able to engage in radically
different experiences - from slaying orcs to cybersex - but they'll occur within a common architecture.

The heterogeneous environment of home computing in the 1980s underwent a similar transformation; now it's virtual
worlds' turn. Whether a proprietary product like Second Life (which resembles a fledgling metaverse) will come
to the fore, or whether it will (like the Internet itself) evolve out of open standards and protocols, only time will
tell--either way, in ten years' time people will look back on this post, from their virtual homes in a virtual reality,
and laugh.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>matrixmetaversemmomultiplayeronlinepervasivepredictionstechnologyvirtual worldsVirtualWorldsSat, 25 Mar 2006 11:27:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2006/03/21/warren-spector-will-the-real-future-please-stand-up/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/03/21/warren-spector-will-the-real-future-please-stand-up/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/03/21/warren-spector-will-the-real-future-please-stand-up/#commentsFiled under: Culture, BusinessBack in November, Warren Spector caused
something of a stir with his comments about the state of the games industry, including an aside slamming Grand
Theft Auto. What Spector was really on about was the use of
clichéd violence in mainstream gaming, and The Escapist has given him a soapbox to follow up on his
speech from last year and elaborate.

He asks an important question: what's in store for the future of
gaming? "Depending on how you look at things, you can paint a picture of gaming's bright future of growing
profits and importance, or one of doom and gloom - of irrelevance and stagnation. Either could be true. Which future is
our real future? Will we go mainstream or marginal?"

Gaming seems bound for the
mainstream one way or another, but Spector addresses an overlooked possibility--that it will lose its mainstream
appeal, and go back to the sidelines like so many media fads of the past have done. He outlines that gaming is at a
crossroads at the moment, and the demands of a mainstream audience will cause game developers (and the industry as a
whole) to make a series of crucial decisions in years to come.

Gaming won't die, but it's easy to agree
with this point: It's just that it's relatively easy for me to imagine scenarios where mainstream audiences get
sick of us, sick of the product we offer them, sick of repetitive, seemingly-but-not-really
interactive, emotion-free, slam-bang, U.S.-centric, urban, hip hop action games and alien invasion scenarios.

Cliché-slamming and thought-provoking--it'll be interesting to see Spector's followup articles in future
Escapist issues.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>escapistfuturegame designGameDesigngames industryGamesIndustrypredictionssoapboxwarren spectorWarrenSpectorTue, 21 Mar 2006 16:30:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2006/02/10/single-player-gaming-doomed-say-execs/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/02/10/single-player-gaming-doomed-say-execs/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/02/10/single-player-gaming-doomed-say-execs/#commentsFiled under: Culture, OnlineAt the Churchill Club in California
yesterday, Peter Moore wasn't the only one gazing into
his crystal ball. Raph Koster of Sony Online Entertainment and Lars Butler, formerly of EA, were cheerfully
predicting the downfall of single-player gaming, with Koster going so far as to say that the last 21 years of gaming
history are an aberration.

Drawing from the fundamental principle that "people play games
together", Koster and Butler predict a huge shift in the games industry as the impact of online gaming starts to
really hit home. Butler's claim that "linear entertainment in single-player is to media what masturbation is to
sex" is eerily similar to David Jaffe's comparison
between games and porn. Experiences are enriched by the presence of other people, and perhaps the depth of
multiplayer gaming and the online social interaction embodied in these games can provide the emotional content that
Jaffe finds so lacking.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>butlerfuturekostermooremultiplayeronlinepredictionssingle playerSinglePlayerFri, 10 Feb 2006 19:30:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2006/02/09/dice-garriotts-predict-mmo-industrys-future/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/02/09/dice-garriotts-predict-mmo-industrys-future/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/02/09/dice-garriotts-predict-mmo-industrys-future/#commentsFiled under: PC, Online, RPGsBrothers Robert and Richard Garriott outlined their visions of the MMO industry's future at DICE today. Richard,
aka Lord British, sees a shake-up on the cards: he predicts
that within three to five years, many of the startups will drop out of the market, leaving only five companies playing
the MMO game.

It's an interesting vision to have, and presumably the Garriotts are hoping that NCsoft will
be one of the five. However, with the recent growth of some niche MMOs, it seems there is a place
for smaller companies and startups; as players become bored of the more popular titles, they may seek out similar
experiences elsewhere, boosting the popularity of titles that may not have the international resources of Sony Online
Entertainment or NCsoft.