Inside The Bills

The quarterback position will be one of major focus this offseason for the Bills knowing there’s a decision to make on Tyrod Taylor. That decision will impact Buffalo’s direction in the draft as well. ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. issued his first mock draft and has the Bills taking a quarterback.

10. Buffalo Bills

DeShaun Watson, QB, Clemson

I’m a believer in franchises with new head coaches starting fresh with new quarterbacks, and it appears likely the Bills move on from Tyrod Taylor after hiring Sean McDermott. That leaves Buffalo with a huge hole and a top-10 pick to fill it. I wrote last week that I didn’t think Watson would get a post-title game draft bounce, but I’ve heard differently from people around the NFL. Though he had an up-and-down season — and threw 17 interceptions — Watson is extremely talented. He’s the second quarterback off the board in this projection, ahead of Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer.

The Bills said back in January from a sheer numbers standpoint they would have to add at that position. At the time they only had EJ Manuel and Jeff Tuel on the roster. Buffalo addressed the position by trade and free agency, acquiring Matt Cassel from the Vikings and signing Tyrod Taylor as a free agent. Now with the draft upon us, will they address quarterback again?

ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper believes it’s a possibility that Buffalo takes a quarterback. In his recent piece on NFL team needs entering the draft Kiper listed quarterback first for the Bills and suggested that Buffalo strongly consider taking one in the second or third round. In a national conference call earlier this week, Kiper explained his thinking and mentioned Baylor’s Bryce Petty specifically.

“I just felt like for Buffalo at that point, (Bryce) Petty a possibility in the second round,” said Kiper. “You bring in another quarterback to compete. Not sure about EJ Manuel, they brought in a veteran (Matt Cassel) you’ve got Tyrod Taylor as well. So I thought just bring in a guy like that. For the Bills they’ve got needs other than quarterback and if they feel they’re okay with their quarterback situation they could look for an offensive guard or an inside backer. Round two is where I think Petty could go. Could he go in round three? Sure, but I think a quarterback at some point in the first four rounds would at least have to be a possibility for the Bills.”

At this point the Bills do not have a first or fourth-round pick, so rounds two and three would be where Kiper’s suggestion would have to take place.

ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper is already expressing opinions on the 2015 NFL draft class and he espoused on the deeper positions he sees in this year’s crop of talent.

“In terms of pass rushers there are a lot of them,” said Kiper. “That’s probably the strongest position in this draft, those combo guys who can get after the quarterback.”

That’s not necessarily a bad thing concerning the Bills. Sure they have linebacker talent and pass rushing talent, but one of those pass rushers is a free agent in Jerry Hughes. If Buffalo somehow can’t bring Hughes back into the fold, it sounds like there is good depth in the draft at that position.

“Early on you’ve got Randy Gregory (Nebraska) and Shane Ray (Missouri), but you also have some guys like Nate Orchard at Utah, who is more of a second or third rounder. Trey Flowers at Arkansas, Lorenzo Mauldin at Louisville is another who would fall into that category. Alvin “Bud” Dupree from Kentucky, who is a good pass rusher. So this is the kind of year if you want those types of players they’re out there in high numbers this season.”

Kiper also said the running back class is deep thanks in large part to the junior eligibles who declared for the draft.

ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper watches the rookie players who were drafted and ranks them through the course of their rookie seasons. Perhaps it isn’t a surprise to most, but Sammy Watkins tops his list.

Watkins was ranked first by Kiper with San Diego CB Jason Verrett ranked second and Miami RT Ju’Wuan James ranked third. Here’s what he wrote about Watkins.

1. Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo

I didn’t like how much Buffalo gave up for the right to draft Watkins in a draft loaded with WR talent, but it’s not like I was ever down on the player (as you can see). So far Watkins has been really good, leading a surprising, 2-0 Buffalo team in catches (11) and targets (15), and he already has three plays of 20-plus yards. If drafting Watkins was about helping second-year QB EJ Manuel, so far it’s clearly been a smart strategy. If I’m watching one thing, it’s whether Watkins can stay healthy. Hopefully he will.

Fellow Bills rookie Preston Brown was ranked 10th.

10. Preston Brown, OLB, Buffalo

The third-rounder out of Louisville has been called on to play right away in part due to the injury to a preseason ACL injury to Kiko Alonso, and while he’s looked a bit over his head so far, he’s making tackles for a defense that has played well and he’s not coming off the field. He currently leads the Bills with 20 tackles.

Running back was the only position besides guard and center that did not see a player come off the board in round one of the 2014 NFL draft. In rounds two and three it’s expected that a handful of running backs will come off the board. The question is when will the run begin?

Most of the NFL draft prognosticators believe Ohio State’s Carlos Hyde will be the first back off the board. Hyde was a pre-draft visitor of the Bills along with five other running backs including LSU’s Jeremy Hill, another highly touted prospect. Here’s who and when ESPN’s Mel Kiper believes a back will first come off the board.

“Carlos Hyde I love as a player. I think he’s a mid-second to late second and could be the first back off the board,” said Kiper. “He’ll block, he’ll catch, he’ll run hard. He’s physical. He can have a rookie year like Eddie Lacy did in Green Bay I believe.”

Ohio State LB Ryan Shazier is arguably the fastest linebacker in the draft after clocking a sub 4.4 40 time at his pro day and tweaking a hamstring in the process. As we profiled on Buffalobills.com today Shazier is the modern day linebacker capable of playing all three downs with the athleticism to handle multiple roles. So where does he come off the board? ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper had his take on when Shazier hears his name in the 2014 NFL draft.

“Ryan Shazier I like because he’s a run around guy. He doesn’t always want to take on, but he can sift through traffic, very instinctive,” said Kiper. “Gives you plenty of versatility, he can be a will and inside linebacker in a 3-4. I think he’s a borderline first, early second.”

“I would say C.J. Mosley which is why he’s seen as a first round pick somewhere between 8 and 21 in that area,” said Kiper. “He is a guy that has pretty good coverage. He doesn’t have great hands, but he’s a good coverage guy. I wish his hands were a bit better because he missed a couple of interceptions opportunities this past year.”

Seeing him in the eight to 21 range obviously puts him in Buffalo’s territory at ninth overall, but most believe that the Bills will add to the offensive side of the ball with their first round pick.

Mock drafts are flying in left and right this time of year as the 2014 draft is just over a month away. ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper has taken on the task of making mock picks for all 32 teams in the league through the first three rounds. His picks for Buffalo are pretty interesting as he addressed some of the perceived top positional needs for the team.

Analysis: I’d like to find a good matchup threat in the passing game for my young quarterback. But keeping him healthy is the first concern, and getting Lewan — who easily could have been a top-two pick last season in a thinner draft — at No. 9 is a good value at a position of need. The draft is deep with pass-catchers, and I take advantage of that in Round 2, taking Seferian-Jenkins even ahead of Jace Amaro. Scott Chandler is a pretty good player, but “ASJ” is at another level athletically, and his presence could also allow Buffalo to involve some two-tight end looks. I’m taking a shot on a big target in Round 3. At 6-foot-6, 225 pounds, Coleman provides great length and the ability to make plays over defenders. I also see safety as a need, but building around EJ Manuel wins out here based on how the board played out.

No. 9 – T Taylor Lewan, MichiganI like Cordy Glenn, but protection was still a problem for the Bills last year, so I have them placing a higher priority on keeping EJ Manuel upright and shifting their attention to the deep class of wide receivers in Round 2 or 3. I’ve said more than once that I think Lewan could have graded out as the top tackle last year if he chose to enter the draft, and while he has the prototypical length as a pass-blocker, he really gets after it as a run-blocker.

Kiper has Auburn OT Greg Robinson to the Rams at 2 and Texas A&M’s Jake Matthews to the Falcons at 6. He also has Clemson WR Sammy Watkins off the board at 7 to the Bucs.

Certainly a bounty of underclassmen has helped to improve the depth in this year’s draft class at a bunch of positions, but none more so than wide receiver.

There are 20 extra receivers in the draft pool who are underclassmen led by Clemson’s Sammy Watkins, who is expected to be the first wideout off the board, most likely in the top five picks. But ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper thinks if a team has a couple of pressing positional needs, they might be able to wait on receiver.

“I think if you look at the wide receiver position because of the tremendous depth in that first round, you could see six to nine wide receivers go in the first round,” Kiper said. “A lot of them are underclassmen so you have to be conservative because they need to test well to be a legitimate first round pick.”

Testing will obviously come in a couple of weeks at the NFL Combine, but Kiper thinks some teams will address other positional needs first if they are not as deep as receiver, provided the value is right when they’re on the clock.

“There’s going to be an opportunity at wide receiver with guys in the third, fourth and fifth round who could get it done,” he said. “Wide receiver is a position you can maybe wait on.”

UB OLB Khalil Mack is considered one of the top pass rushing prospects in the 2014 NFL draft class. Being an elite athletic prospect, ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper believes Mack could really wow NFL talent evaluators at the NFL Combine in a couple of weeks.

Kiper believes a strong workout performance by Mack, could potentially vault Mack into the top five or even top three territory.

“Mack could have an incredible Combine workout and could really shoot up (the board),” said Kiper on a national conference call Thursday. “I have him going seven right now to Tampa Bay, but he could shoot up into the mix at three very easily.”

It’s Mel Kiper’s second mock draft and he’s got Buffalo taking one of the top offensive tackles in the class with the ninth overall pick.

With Auburn’s Greg Robinson already off the board to the Rams at two, he has Buffalo taking Jake Matthews, the Texas A&M offensive tackle at nine. Here’s his breakdown on the pick.

9 – Buffalo Bills (6-10) – Jake Matthews

COLLEGE: Texas A&M

AGE: 22

HT: 6-5

WT: 305

POS: OT

Analysis: The injuries to EJ Manuel last season would make you think pass-blocking has to be a priority, but where the Bills’ offensive line was really bad was in creating any push in the run game. You don’t just protect a young QB by creating a pretty pocket, it’s also nice when he can hand the ball off with any reasonable sense of optimism. Matthews will help. I suspect he’d jump in right away at right tackle and succeed — he can play left or right — and his ability to finish as a run-blocker could pay early dividends.

Having watched four of Matthews games from last season he is one of the most technically sound tackles in the draft. He also is remarkably light on his feet and resets like he’s an NBA point guard.

I agree with Kiper that Robinson probably does have the most upside, but it’s hard not to like Matthews too. And there’s also Michigan’s Taylor Lewan. Bottom line is if the Bills want to go tackle early, they’ll have options.

ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper, to his credit, reviews his post-draft grades of each NFL club around this time of year when the first regular season for that draft class is complete. Kiper bumped up his grade for the Bills looking back on Buffalo’s 2013 draft class.

Post-draft grade: C-

Summary: Well, the Bills are due for a bump. Last April I summarized: “The Bills hit needs, I just think they made a major reach with the biggest need of all, so that value gained from the added picks was in some ways squandered on Manuel.” If you recall, the Bills traded down and added picks, but then they drafted Manuel at No. 16, which I simply thought was too high. Manuel had his moments, but he mostly just looked like a rookie QB and we’re still not sure if the Bills have a solution at the game’s most important position. But they clearly deserve a bump for value added later. Alonso was my top rookie of 2013 league-wide due to overall impact, Woods should be a pretty good No. 2 wide receiver and Goodwin added some value. They also get credit for Nickell Robey, one of the better undrafted signings in terms of early value. Decent return so far, but much is wrapped up in Manuel.

I wrote up Kiko Alonso in my 2013 draft guide as one of the top six inside linebackers in the draft. I thought he was hurt a little bit because, although he has outstanding athleticism, he didn’t work out at the combine, which inevitably provides a bump to the best athletes. He also had only one year as a full-time starter at Oregon. But one of Alonso’s great skills at Oregon was his ability to “sift through the trash” (scouting phrase) and deal with traffic. In other words, he was able to see the ball and make plays through blocking havoc and contact, maintaining his balance and quickness.

I think those skills have made the transition easier for him. The game, and the traffic, just doesn’t seem to move too quickly for him, just as it didn’t at Oregon. So far this season, the Buffalo Bills have benefited. Although Alonso might lack experience, he plays with great instincts and has that extra set of eyes to make plays amid all the chaos.

This week, he moves to the top of my Rookie Rankings, barely edging out another AFC East star.

1. Kiko Alonso, ILB, Buffalo Bills: Continues to perform at a consistently high level week in and week out. Through Week 9, he’s third in the NFL in total tackles, with 89 (just one behind leaders Vontaze Burfict and Sean Lee), and has four interceptions, which is most on the team, plus he gets a bonus because he literally has not come off the field for the Bills’ defense, so he has played nearly 700 snaps. He is not playing perfect football, but he’s been a huge part of the defensive rise for Buffalo.

For those that missed it Buffalobills.com had Alonso wired for sound in last week’s game against Kansas City. Robert Woods and EJ Manuel were listed in the ‘Next in Line’ category for Kiper, kind of like an honorable mention.

The other AFC East star that Kiper was referring to was the Jets’ DT Sheldon Richardson.

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper has mocked out his draft to the third round. And his viable third round option for the Bills is DE/OLB John Simon from Ohio State.

Simon has a work ethic that parallels another former Ohio State LB in Chris Spielman. A two-time captain for the Buckeyes, Simon was the heart and soul of team. He had a minor bursa sac injury at the end of last season, but tested well running a 4.66 40-time at 6’2″ 257 pounds.

“You look at John Simon I like the way he plays the game,” said Kiper. “He’s got a lot of versatility. He plays with energy. You look at John Simon, you think early to mid third round. I project him to Buffalo, 71st pick overall. Energy, kind of like the old Mike Vrabel who came out of Ohio State, had a nice career in NFL. Plays down end, gives you some scheme versatility. Great kid. Tremendously hard worker, great passion for the game. I think John Simon solidly in the third round now.”

A handful of NFL clubs are in the market for a long term solution at quarterback. Bills GM Buddy Nix has said as much since last fall concerning Buffalo’s situation at the position. But with a quarterback class that most so called experts believe doesn’t offer much in the way of top 10 talent, many of the teams looking to add a signal caller will wait until round two. Kiper sees that as a potentially risky scenario for those clubs.

“You have to be careful, or you can get lucky,” said Kiper. “Cincinnati waited for Andy Dalton. Everybody thought Cincinnati was going to trade up to get Andy Dalton or would have to trade up to get Andy Dalton. It didn’t work that way. San Diego, Drew Brees fell to them after they made the deal for Michael Vick to go to Atlanta that year and it allowed them to get LaDainian Tomlinson and then they got Drew Brees.”

Nix was a part of San Diego’s scouting staff at the time, and he was rewarded again for being patient in last year’s draft when Buffalo saw OT Cordy Glenn fall to them at 41.

“It has worked being patient and getting some good luck and some good fortune,” said Kiper. “But to get Nassib where (the Bills) are picking in the second round, that’s something you would have to say is debatable. That’s at 41 and he could very easily go before that.”

Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Arizona and the Jets are all clubs that could consider quarterback and all four pick in front of the Bills in the second round. Kiper, who assumes the Bills would covet Nassib, believes if the Bills truly want him they may need to move up the board.

“The strength of their conviction on the quarterback will determine a lot of that,” said Kiper of the Bills. “If they feel they have to get Ryan Nassib, then they’ll move out and move up.”

That could prove difficult with just six picks in Buffalo’s arsenal in this draft unless they elect to use future picks.

“That’s determined by their feelings,” said Kiper. “Are they hoping to just be lucky and have good fortune? Or are they going to be aggressive and move up to go get him? That’s one of the interesting scenarios in this draft.”

It’s been stated more than once that if Buffalo can’t land a quarterback they like that’s fitting of the value of eighth overall and they can’t find a willing trade partner to move down that they’ll take the best defensive player on the board. ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper has just that scenario playing out for Buffalo in his latest mock draft.

Kiper has Georgia OLB Jarvis Jones going to the Bills at eighth overall in round one. Here was his analysis on the picks, which also indicated the Bills anticipated measure of activity in the free agent market.

8 – Jarvis Jones *

Buffalo Bills (6-10)COLLEGE: Georgia

AGE: 23

HT: 6-2

WT: 245

POS: OLB

Pick analysis: Want to guarantee an improvement in your pass rush? Here’s your safe pick. Jones has been exceptional for two years now against elite competition, and demands help when he comes off the edge. He’s not Von Miller in terms of his athleticism, but he has the chance to produce at a slightly lower level, making him a good value at this slot.

Free-agency factor: The Bills spent a lot in free agency last year, and won’t be as active this year. Quarterback could come into play at this pick because of the lack of options on the market. But if Arizona takes Smith, I don’t like the value here, and they’d be better served finding a QB in Round 2.

I tend to agree with Kiper’s assessment on QB value at 8. If Geno Smith is off the board, it’s probably best to either go best defensive player on the board or trade down to land a better quarterback value late in round one or early round two. In Kiper’s mock he has Arizona taking Smith at 7th overall.

ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper has just released his second mock draft. He makes special mention that he believes trades could happen for teams like Kansas City (1st) and Arizona (7th) where they move out of the top 10 since there are no quarterbacks that fit the value there. That’s why he also doesn’t select a QB for the Bills at 8.

POS: LB
Analysis: Sticking with a linebacker here, but going with the higher ceiling. The Bills really need help at interior linebacker, where Kelvin Sheppard is merely adequate. Ogletree was at one time a safety, and you see those kinds of instincts when he plays, because he simply flies to the ball. He’s a great pursuit player and a guy who will shoot gaps and make stops in the backfield, but that’s also because he has really good instincts. A big key with Ogletree is versatility. There’s no reason he can’t work on the edge, or inside. He has the ceiling of a player who can do it all.

Kiper did not have a quarterback coming off the board in the entire first round.

“It’s early in this entire process,” Mayock said. “Everyone says there’s no Andrew Luck, there’s no Robert Griffin III. … I guarantee you by the time we get to April, there will be three to four quarterbacks taken in the first round, and most of them are coming out of this game.”

Mayock made reference to four of the QBs participating at the Senior Bowl this week, including N.C. State’s Mike Glennon and Syracuse’s Ryan Nassib.

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper has put out his draft grades. Here’s what he had for the Bills.

Kiper gave Buffalo a B- overall grade and a B grade for value. This is what he wrote.

Summary: I had the Bills selecting Stephon Gilmore in my final mock draft, and they ended up taking him. I didn’t see CB as the top need, but it’s a solid pick. Gilmore is ready to start immediately for a secondary that allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt in 2011. The Bills pass defense should be better in 2012 when you put together an improved pass rush and the draft help in the secondary. Ron Brooks, a burner out of LSU, could stick as a slot cornerback. He lacks size, but can fly. I don’t share the opinion that Cordy Glenn can be a left tackle, but he was a total steal at No. 41. He was on my final Big Board at No. 14. If the Bills move him inside (or to right tackle), he’ll succeed. Zebrie Sanders was a steal in the sixth round. They got a wideout with T.J. Graham, as well as a pair of linebackers to bring in and battle for a spot. Pretty good weekend for Buddy Nix and the Bills.