In reaction to the statement, "Sometimes I think
I might leave the Catholic Church" ["Paminsan-minsan iniisip
ko na baka umalis na ako sa Simbahang Katoliko"], 9.2% of Catholics,
or about one in every eleven, said they strongly or else somewhat agreed,
in the SWS national survey of registered voters last February 15-17,
2013.

The question was fielded on SWS's own account, as a public
service, in response to the assertions of Fr. Joel Tabora, S.J., in
his blog of February 7, 2013, that "The Catholic Church is in trouble
- even in Catholic Philippines," and that "People have been
leaving the Catholic Church. People are about to leave the Church. It
is time, I think, for Mahar Mangahas to take out his social survey tools
to help us understand what is happening." 1

This was the first time that a question about leaving
the Catholic church was ever fielded in an SWS survey. Thus, although
we now know that, at present, about one in eleven Catholics sometimes
think of leaving the Catholic Church, we do not have direct data about
the trend of this proportion from the past. Yet there is survey evidence
to support Fr. Tabora's assertions, consisting of: (a) the SWS surveys
of 1991-2013 showing a (slight) decline in Catholics' church attendance,
and (b) the finding of the new survey of February 2013 of a strong inverse
relation between Catholics' church attendance and giving consideration
to leaving the Catholic church.

The SWS February 2013 survey included items on four matters:
(a) self-assessed religiosity, (b) church attendance, (c) self-comparison
of church attendance at present with attendance five years ago, and
(d) thinking about leaving the Catholic Church (asked of Catholics only).
The questionnaire design was solely an SWS responsibility; Fr. Tabora
had no hand in it.

Summary of findings

The new survey found that, compared to those of other
religions, Catholics are less religious, and Catholics attend church
less frequently.

The long series of SWS surveys over time shows a slightly
downward trend of church attendance among Filipinos, for Catholics and
non-Catholics alike.

When asked to compare their current church attendance
with that of five years ago, the balance of comparisons is negative
(i.e. those who now attend more frequently are outnumbered by those
who now attend less frequently) for Catholics, Iglesia ni Cristos and
Muslims, but is positive (i.e. the balance tilts towards those who now
attend more frequently) for Protestants and other Christians.

Among Catholics, having thoughts about leaving the Church
is more common (a) among those relatively less religious, (b) among
those with relatively less frequent church attendance, and (c) among
those whose present church attendance has decreased from five years
ago.

Religious Affiliation

Religious affiliation (based on self-identification) is
a background item in many SWS surveys; so far, it has been included
in 54 SWS national surveys since 1991. In the survey sample of February
2013, 81% are Catholics, 6% are Protestants, 3% are Iglesia ni Cristos,
and 3% are of other Christian denominations. Six percent are Muslims,
and a small 0.1% are of other religious groups. [Table 1]

During 1991-2013, the average annual percentage of adults
identifying themselves as Catholics in the SWS surveys varied between
a high of 88% in 1997 and a low of 80% in 2007. The data series indicates
a very slight, but statistically significant, downward trend in the
22-year period. The typical national sample size is 1,200 per round,
but since the number of rounds having religious affiliation ranged from
1 to as many as 4 in a year, the aggregate yearly sample size ranged
from 1,200 (3 percent error margin) to 4,800 (1.5 percent error margin).
[Chart 1, Table 2, Annex Table 1]

In 1991, as well as in in 1994, 85% of adults reported
themselves as Catholics. This went up to 87% in 1996 and to the peak
of 88% in 1997, but declined to 83% in 1998. It was 85% in 1999 and
2000, 82% in 2001, and 84% in 2002. From 2003 to the present it has
fluctuated narrowly between 83% and 80%. The latest proportion of 81%
in 2013 is statistically less than the initial 85% of 1991.

Self-assessed religiosity

In the February 2013 survey, 32% percent say they are
very religious; 56% say they are somewhat religious, 11% say they are
not very religious, and 1% say they have no religious belief. [Table
3]

Compared with other religious groups, Catholics are the
least religious. Only 29% of Catholics consider themselves very religious,
compared to 50% among Protestants, 43% among Iglesia ni Cristos and
41% among those from other Christian denominations. Among Muslims, 38%
consider themselves very religious.

Frequency of church attendance

In the Philippines, a plurality of adults are weekly worshippers:
43% attend church/masjid at least once a week. Twenty-two percent
attend church/masjid two or three times a month, 21% attend once
a month, 9% attend 2-11 times a year and 5% attend once
a year at most. [Table 4]

Only 37% of Catholics attend church weekly. In
comparison, there are nearly twice as many of other Christians who are
weekly churchgoers: 64% among Protestants, 70% among Iglesia
ni Cristos and 62% among other Christians. Seventy-five percent of Muslims
attend masjid at least weekly.

In the entirety of 70 SWS surveys of church attendance
during 1991-2013, weekly attendance was always lower among Catholics
than among Filipinos in general. [Chart 2, Annex Tables 2-3]

The highest recorded weekly church attendance among
Filipinos was 66%; this was in July 1991, the first time SWS asked the
question. The highest recorded weekly church attendance among
Catholics was 64%, also in July 1991.

Among all Filipinos, the latest 43% weekly church
attendance in February 2013 matches the 43% low first recorded in March
2008. Likewise, the latest 37% weekly church attendance of Catholics
in February 2013 matches the all-time low 37% weekly church attendance
of Catholics in March 2008. The decline in Catholics' weekly church
attendance from 1991 to 2013 is highly significant, statistically speaking.

Church attendance at present compared to five years
ago

Fifty-four percent of Filipinos say their frequency of
church attendance is the same now as it was five years ago. Eighteen
percent say they attend church more frequently now than five years
ago, whereas 28% say they attend less frequently now than five
years ago, for a net difference of -9. [Table 5]

Among Catholics, 18% attend church more frequently
now, whereas 27% attend less frequently now, for a net difference
of -9.

Among Protestants, 26% attend church more frequently
now, whereas 14% less frequently now, for a net difference
of +12.

Among Iglesia ni Cristos, 14% attend church more frequently
now, whereas 36% attend less frequently now, for a net difference
of -22.

Among other Christians, 26% attend church more frequently
now and 25% attend less frequently now, for a net difference
of +1.

Among Muslims, 14% attend masjid more frequently now,
and 40% attend less frequently now, for a net difference of -26.

Thinking of leaving the Catholic Church

One in every eleven of Catholics sometimes think of leaving
the Church. This proportion is the sum of 2.5% who Strongly agree
and 6.7% who Somewhat agree, that "Sometimes I think
that I might leave the Catholic Church". On the other hand, 11.4%
Somewhat disagree and 74.2% Strongly disagree with the
statement, and 5.2% neither agree nor disagree.

Having thoughts of leaving the Catholic Church is more
common among Catholics who do not consider themselves as very religious,
who attend Church monthly at most, and whose church attendance is less
now than five years ago.

The percentages of Catholics who sometimes think of leaving
the Church are 4.9% among the very religious, 9.1% among the
somewhat religious, 16.1% among the not very religious and 57.3% among
those who say they have no religious belief. [Chart 3]

In terms of church attendance, the percentages of Catholics
who sometimes think of leaving the Church are: 5.4% among weekly churchgoers,
7.1% among those who attend several times a month, 12.9% among those
who attend once a month, 14.5% among those who attend several times
a year and 18.0% among those who attend once a year at most. [Chart
4]

In terms of change in church attendance now versus five
years ago, the percentages of Catholics who sometimes think of leaving
the Church are: 9.9% among those who attend more frequently now, 7.5%
among those who say it is same as before and 12.0% among those who attend
less frequently now. [Chart 5]

Survey Background

The February 2013 Pre-Election Survey was conducted from
February 15-17, 2013 using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 registered
voters divided into random samples of 300 each in Metro Manila, Balance
of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3%
for national percentages, ±6% for area percentages).

The 2013 Commission on Elections counts of Registered
Voters, by region and area, were used to weight regional estimates to
obtain area estimates, and to weight area estimates to obtain national
estimates.

SWS employs its own staff for questionnaire design, sampling,
fieldwork, data-processing, and analysis, and does not outsource any
of its survey operations.

* * *

February 2013 survey module on leaving the Catholic
church and related matters