Chapter 2. Measurement. Overview

Transcription

1 Chapter 2 Measurement Overview Chapter 2 explores the different measures of macroeconomic data ranging from Gross National Product to unemployment. Beginning with the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), three approaches to measuring Gross Domestic Product measures are discussed. The first, the product approach (also known as the value-added approach) uses the sum of value-added to goods and services produced across all productive units in the economy. This technique requires summing the value of all goods and services produced in the economy and then subtracting the value of all intermediate goods used. The second approach, the expenditure approach, calculates GDP as the total spending on all final goods and services produced in the economy. The income approach is the third and final method of measuring GDP. In this approach, all income received by economic agents contributing to production is added up. This income includes compensation of employees (wages, salaries, and benefits), proprietors income (self-employed firm owners), rental income, corporate profits, net interest, indirect business taxes (sales and excise taxes paid by business), and depreciation (consumption of fixed capital). The last two GDP measures are represented by the income expenditure identity given as C + I + G + NX. C represents aggregate consumption and includes durables, nondurables, and services. Durables are the largest expenditure component of GDP and include items that last longer than the current period such as automobiles and furniture. Nondurables are goods that are consumed or used up within the period such as food. Services are non-tangible items such as haircuts and massages. Investment consists of fixed investment, residential investment, and inventory investment. Fixed investment includes the production of capital, such as plant and equipment known as nonresidential investment. Residential investment is housing. Inventory investment consists of stored goods; in essence, goods that are produced but not sold in the period. NX represents net exports, which is total exports minus total imports over the time period. G is government expenditures and includes expenditures by federal, state, and local governments on final goods and services. This measure excludes government transfers, which are payments such as social security and unemployment insurance. These are money transfers from one group to another. Measures of GDP leave out all non-market activity, such as the value-added from cooking home meals and do-it-yourself repairs of cars and homes. Moreover, there are some exchanges that are not reported to the government and therefore occur in the so-called underground economy. These unreported transactions include cash payments for baby-sitting, trade in illegal drugs, and barter, or trade-in-kind such as fixing a neighbor s sink in return for him mowing your lawn. Evidence indicates that these exchanges are a significant percentage of reported GDP. Differences in prices in the economy lead to a distinction between real GDP and nominal GDP. Real GDP excludes the effects of inflation in the economy while nominal GDP does not. Two common measures of the price level are 1) the implicit price deflator, and 2) the consumer price index (CPI). The first measure simply divides nominal GDP by real GDP and multiplies the result by 100 while the second includes only goods and services purchased by consumers and compares a bundle of goods and services one year with the cost of that same bundle in another year. Thus the CPI is a fixed-weight price index and is given by total current expenditures over total expenditures at base year prices and multiplies the result by 100. Both measures of inflation have problems that are addressed in the chapter.

2 Chapter 2 Measurement 5 The income identity shown above can be used to derive measures of aggregate savings, wealth and capital. National savings, S can be shown to equal total private investment, I plus the current account surplus, CA. Thus, S = I + CA. The current account surplus is equal to net exports, NX plus net factor payments from abroad, NFP. Thus, CA = NX + NFP. This is important as the nation s wealth (a stock variable) increases each year by the addition of national savings (a flow variable). The last aggregate measures characterize the labor market, including employment, unemployment, the size of labor force, and the laborparticipation rate. The labor force consists of people currently employed or searching for work during the last four weeks. Employment is measured as the people in the labor force who worked part-time or fulltime during the past week. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed workers divided by the labor force while the participation rate is the labor force divided by the total working-age population. True and False 1. The difference between measuring GDP with the income approach and the expenditure approach is the aggregate value of savings. 2. An intermediate good is used as an input to produce a final good. 3. Greater self-sufficiency (repairing their own cars, preparing their own food) among residents of a country will tend to increase GDP. 4. The product approach to measuring GDP sums the value added to all the goods and services produced in an economy over a particular time. 5. The standard practice for valuing government-produced goods is to use the cost of the inputs used in production. 6. The expenditure approach measures GDP as total spending on all final goods and services produced in the economy. 7. The housing stock is counted as consumption in the National Income and Product Accounts. 8. The production of wills, trusts, and other estate planning documents is counted as durables in the National Income and Product Accounts as they are written to last for many years. 9. Calculating GDP using the income approach consists of adding up all income received by economic agents contributing to production of final goods. 10. The income-expenditure identity for a closed economy is given by Y = C + I + G. 11. Payments for medical checkups are counted as services in GDP. 12. Residential Fixed Investment includes appliances as long as they are used and kept in the residence. 13. Transfers are cash payments made by one individual to another and are not recorded in GDP. 14. If the unemployment rate is 20 percent and there are 400,000 employed workers, the labor force equals 500, Inventories are subtracted from profits in the income approach because the inventories are not sold. 16. Whereas GDP excludes foreign production within the domestic country, GNP excludes foreign earnings of domestic residents.

3 6 Williamson Macroeconomics, Second Edition 17. Inventory expenditures include fixed investment and inventory investment. 18. The implicit GDP price deflator is given by 100 times real GDP divided by nominal GDP. 19. The Consumer Price Index is given by total expenditures in the current year times 100 divided by total expenditures in the current year at base year prices. 20. One implicit assumption in the CPI is that consumers do not change their purchases when relative prices change. 21. The CPI measure of inflation is biased upward because goods that become relatively more expensive receive a lower weight than they should in the CPI measurements. 22. An upward bias in inflation causes an upward bias in real GDP. 23. A stock refers to a total quantity in existence at one moment in time while a flow refers to a rate over a period of time. 24. The government debt is a stock variable and the government deficit is a flow variable. 25. National savings equals investment plus total imports plus net factor payments from abroad. 26. The current account surplus is equal to NX + NFP. 27. National savings is a stock because it increases the nation s wealth, which is itself a stock. 28. The CA surplus is a stock because it represents the total claims of foreigners. 29. Discouraged workers are citizens who do not wish to be employed. 30. The search theory of unemployment suggests that a high unemployment rate is associated with labor market tightness and a low unemployment rate is associated with labor market laxity. Short Answer 1. How are intermediate goods valued when using the value-added approach to measure GDP? 2. Under what conditions would baby-sitting services be counted in GDP? 3. Under what conditions is the sale of a used car counted in GDP? 4. Under what conditions would having more potholes in the road increase GDP? 5. Why is depreciation added to GDP using the income approach? 6. Under what conditions would having more potholes in the road decrease GDP? 7. Explain how the timing of the use of a good determines whether it is recorded as consumption or investment. 8. How can upward biases in CPI cause government expenditures and government deficits to increase? 9. What is the labor-participation rate given a labor force of three and a half million and a total work age population of five million? 10. How does the measure of the national savings rate differ between open and closed economies?

4 Chapter 2 Measurement Why might unemployment fall in a recession? 12. In what way is the implicit price deflator a broader measure of inflation than the CPI? 13. How are prices and quantities treated in calculations of the CPI and implicit price deflator? 14. Place each of the following Ford Motors transactions in one of the four components of expenditure: Consumption, investment, government purchases, and net exports. (a) Ford sells a truck to the Army. (b) Ford sells a truck to United Parcel Service. (c) Ford sells a truck to Tregi, an Italian transport company. (d) Ford sells a truck to you. (e) Ford builds a truck to be sold next year. Graphic/Numeric 1. Consider an economy with a widget producer, consumers, and a government. The widget producer produces 100 million widgets, which sell at a market price of $5 per widget. Consumers purchase 70 million widgets, 10 million are sold to the government, and the remainder are stored as inventory. The widget producer pays $150 million in wages and $40 million in taxes. Consumers pay $30 million in taxes. The government spends all tax revenues to hire workers and purchase widgets as an intermediate good into the production of public infrastructure. The widgets total $50 million and wages total $20 million. Calculate GDP using the product approach, expenditure approach and income approach. 2. Imagine an economy with two goods, coconuts and fish. Last year, 40 coconuts were sold for $5 each and 200 units of fish at $2 each. This year, 60 coconuts were sold for $7 each and 300 units of fish at $4 each. (a) Fill in the following table. Year 1 Nominal GDP Year 2 Nominal GDP Year 1 % increase (b) Calculate the relative price of coconuts to fish for both years. (c) Fill in the following table. Real GDP Year 1 Year 2 % increase Year 1 = base year Year 2 = base year Answers True and False 1. False. GDP is the same using the income approach or the expenditure approach. 2. True. 3. False. GDP rises with increases in productivity, which often result from greater specialization and exploitation of comparative advantage.

5 8 Williamson Macroeconomics, Second Edition 4. True. 5. True. 6. True. 7. False. The housing stock is counted as (residential) investment. 8. False. The production of legal documents is counted as services. 9. False. It consists of adding up all income received by economic agents contributing to production of all goods. 10. True. 11. True. 12. False. Appliances are recorded as durables. 13. False. Transfers are payments from one group of individuals to the government to another group of individuals. 14. True. 15. False. Inventories are added to profits in the income approach because inventories represent additions to assets of firms. 16. False. GDP excludes foreign earnings of domestic residents and GNP excludes foreign production within the domestic country. 17. True. 18. False. It is 100 times nominal GDP divided by real GDP. 19. True. 20. True. 21. False. The CPI is biased upward because goods that become relatively more expensive receive a higher weight than they should. 22. False. An upward bias in inflation causes an upward bias in nominal GDP. 23. True. 24. True. 25. False. National savings equals investment plus net exports plus net factor payments from abroad. 26. True.

6 Chapter 2 Measurement False. Although the nation s wealth is a stock, national savings is a flow because it is measured over a given time period rather than at a single point in time. 28. False. The CA is a flow that represents the claims over a particular period of time. 29. False. Those who do not wish to be employed (and presumably are not looking for work) are not part of the labor force. 30. True. Short Answer 1. The value of intermediate goods is subtracted from the total value of goods in the economy to avoid double counting. 2. These services are counted if they are reported to the IRS. 3. The sale of a used car is counted if there is specific value added to the transaction. 4. More potholes might lead to more car repairs and that, in and of itself, can increase GDP. 5. Because depreciation is taken out when profits are calculated and it represents a real expenditure or cost to the economy over that time period. 6. More potholes imply fewer deliveries are made on average and that lowers productivity and therefore output. 7. Expenditure on a good produced but not consumed in the period is investment while expenditure on a good produced and consumed in the period is consumption. 8. Some federal transfer payments are indexed to the CPI, which means an upward bias in CPI leads to an increase transfer payments. An increase in government expenditures, ceteris paribus, leads to an increase in the government deficit (or a reduction in the government surplus). 9. Participation rate = labor force/total working-age population = 3.5/5 = 0.7 or 70 percent. 10. The national savings rate for a closed economy excludes NX and net factor payments. 11. Finding work during a recession may be difficult and many former workers may decide to drop out of the labor force. 12. The implicit price deflator compares GDP while the CPI only uses goods and services purchased by consumers. 13. The CPI holds the quantity of goods fixed and allows the prices to vary. The implicit price deflator holds the prices of goods fixed and allows the quantities to vary. 14. The answers are: (a) Government Expenditures (b) Investment (c) Net Exports (d) Consumption (e) Investment (in particular, inventory)

7 10 Williamson Macroeconomics, Second Edition Graphic/Numeric 1. Consider an economy with a widget producer, consumers, and a government. The widget producer, produces 100 millions widgets, which sell at a market price of $5 per widget. Consumers purchase 70 million widgets, 10 million are sold to the government, and the remainder are stored as inventory. The widget producer pays $150 million in wages and $40 million in taxes. Consumers pay $30 million in taxes. The government spends all tax revenues to hire workers and purchase widgets as an intermediate good into the production of public infrastructure. The widgets total $50 million and wages total $20 million. Calculate GDP using the product approach, expenditure approach and income approach. GDP Using the Product Approach Value added producers $500 Value added government $20 GDP $520 GDP Using the Expenditure Approach Consumption $350 Investment $100 Government Expenditures $70 Net Exports $0 GDP $520 GDP Using the Income Approach After-Tax Wage Income $140 After-Tax Profits $310 Interest Income $0 Taxes $70 GDP $ Imagine an economy with two goods, coconuts and fish. Last year, 40 coconuts were sold for $5 each and 200 units of fish at $2 each. This year, 60 coconuts were sold for $7 each and 300 units of fish at $4 each. (a) Fill in the following table. Year 1 nominal GDP = ($5 * 40) + ($2 * 200) = $400 Year 2 nominal GDP = ($7 * 60) + ($4 * 300) = $1620 % = (100 * 1620)/(1400 1) = 305 Year 1 % increase Year 1 Nominal GDP 400 Year 2 Nominal GDP (b) Calculate the relative price of coconuts to fish for both years. Year 1: Price of coconuts/price of fish = 5/2 = 2.5 Year 2: Price of coconuts/price of fish = 7/4 = 1.75

Name: Date: 1. GDP is all of the following except the total: A) expenditure of everyone in the economy. B) income of everyone in the economy. C) expenditure on the economy's output of goods and services.

Name: Date: 1. GDP is all of the following except the total: A) expenditure of everyone in the economy. B) income of everyone in the economy. C) expenditure on the economy's output of goods and services.

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