Will Fleet Street make the EU an election issue?

Wednesday 26 September 2007 08:38 BST

The Sun's well- timed European bomb this week, in which it has devoted endless pages to demanding a referendum over the EU constitution, calls to mind an observation by a Labour MP more than a quarter of a century ago: "You cannot win a major battle for the minds of the electorate if the whole British press is against you."

That was Douglas Jay, a confirmed anti-Common Market campaigner, lamenting the loss of the 1975 referendum that confirmed Britain's European membership after every national daily and Sunday newspaper - with the exception of the Morning Star - had called on readers to vote "yes".

Of course, the situation facing Gordon Brown is rather different. He must be aware that, with certain exceptions, the press is opposed to the ratification of a treaty that The Sun regards as a "blueprint for a United States of Europe" and "the greatest threat to our nation since World War II". So, despite previous Government promises, he cannot countenance a referendum.

But he is altogether more eager to hold a general election, and now must decide whether the press as a whole will follow The Sun's lead by turning it into a mini-referendum about Europe. Will papers that have given him a measure of sympathetic support during his honeymoon period, notably The Times and the Daily Mail, dare to make the issue of Europe central to the campaign?

It is not only a question for Brown. Newspaper owners and editors face a difficulty, too. Are their readers likely to make up their minds on how to vote based solely on the parties' attitude towards the European constitution? Do they care as much as journalists think? Whenever pollsters enquire about which issues matter most to people, health, education and taxation generally rank above Europe. I do recall it came out top in a BBC news online poll before the 2001 election but voters showed little inclination for anti-EU campaigners once they entered the polling booths.

The Sun's intervention did not stir other newspapers to follow its lead, though The Daily Telegraph is running a petition demanding that the Government fulfils its referendum pledge. The results, incidentally, are very interesting. As I write, the paper's website reports that 97,855 people have signed its petition. Of those, only 31,920 have done so online.

Given that the Telegraph's site is, by its own account, drawing younger people, my tentative reading of those figures suggests Europe is more of an issue for the older generation.

That doesn't negate its impact entirely but we can assume that the Telegraph is preaching largely to the converted among its print readership. Or should I say reconverted? The paper has come a long way since its ringing 1971 call to MPs to join the European Economic Community, arguing "they will be passing a judgment on a civilisation, a culture, an economic union, a nascent defence capability, above all an idea of Europe which cannot be rejected without grievous results for Europe's future and our own".

What was significant about that kind of newspaper propaganda, replicated in every other paper in the early 1970s, was that it occurred despite widespread public hostility towards European integration of any kind. For example, a Harris opinion poll in May 1971 showed a 62-20 per cent majority against entry.

Yet, just four years later, 17.3 million Britons voted in favour of continued membership with 8.4 million against (including, by the way, yours truly). A united press had managed, despite deep parliamentary rifts, to change the public's attitude enough to achieve a 67-33 per cent victory.

Nowadays, not only is it impossible to conceive of every national newspaper agreeing over any policy matter, the papers that remain enthusiastic about the EU cannot be sure of carrying their readers along with them.

A couple of years ago, when the constitution first reared its head, the Daily Mirror - which has consistently supported the EU - conducted a telephone poll of readers. The result was sobering for two reasons. Firstly, 73.7 per cent of the callers rejected the idea of Britain signing up to the constitution. Secondly, only a tiny fraction of the paper's five million readers, just 5,000 of them, bothered to take part.

There are two clear lessons for Brown based on that result. While it confirms that it would be extremely unwise to hold a referendum, it implies that the issue would not dominate a general election campaign. No politician is going to argue that "it's Europe, stupid" when asked what worries the British people on the doorsteps, whether the election comes next month or next year.

The Sun may be having fun with its campaign. But it looks very unlikely to have any effect on the composition of the next government.