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Wednesday, June 21, 2017

The rise of Mohammed bin Salman: A mixed blessing?

Saudi King Salman’s appointment of his son, Mohammed bin
Salman, as crown prince at the expense of his nephew, Mohammed bin Nayef, could
prove to be a mixed blessing for a kingdom in transition that faces significant
international challenges of its own making.

Prince Mohammed’s ascendancy was never in doubt. It was a
question of when rather than if. Reportedly ill and clearly feeble in his
public appearances, King Salman may have wanted to ensure sooner than later
that his 31-year old son would be his successor.

In doing so, King Salman appears to be taking a gamble.
Prince Mohammed has garnered popularity among Saudi youth, many of who feel
that his ascendancy puts in office a member of the ruling Al Saud family who
because of his age is more attuned to their aspirations.

The prince has introduced, to the chagrin of religious
ultraconservatives, entertainment, including music concerts, theatrical
productions, film showings and comedy performances, in a country in which
culture was largely limited to traditional, religious and tribal expressions.
He has also signalled his support in principle for lifting the ban on women’s driving
and other rollbacks of austere public codes.

The prince’s more liberal vision, part of a far broader
process of change, comes, however, with a heavy price tag. Forced to
restructure the kingdom’s rentier economy at a time of reduced energy prices
and upgrade the country’s autocracy, Prince Mohammed’s measures sparked
criticism not only from the kingdom’s Sunni Muslim ultra-conservative religious
establishment, a pillar of the rule of the Al Sauds, but also ordinary Saudis
who have felt the cost of change in their wallet.

The significant revamp set out in Prince Mohammed’s Vision
2030 plan for the future involves a unilateral rewriting of the kingdom’s
social contract that offered a cradle-to-grave welfare state in exchange for
political fealty and acceptance of Sunni ultra-conservatism’s austere moral and
social codes.

Saudis have, since the introduction of cost-cutting and
revenue-raising measures, seen significant rises in utility prices and greater
job uncertainty as the government sought to prune its bloated bureaucracy and
encourage private sector employment. Slashes in housing, vacation and sickness benefits
reduced salaries in the public sector, the country’s largest employer, by up to
a third.

Online protests, fuelled in part by Prince Mohammed’s
acquisition of a $500 million yacht shortly after he came to office, persuaded
the government in April to roll back some of the austerity measures and restore
most of the perks enjoyed by government employees.

Reduced public spending and delays in payments have put two
of the kingdom’s major companies, Bin Laden and Saudi Oger, in dire straits. Thousands
of employees have been unpaid for months. Bin Laden workers last year burnt a
bus in Mecca in protest. Oger reportedly is bankrupt and likely to go into
liquidation.

On the foreign policy front, Prince Mohammed, since first
coming to office in 2015, has embroiled Saudi Arabia in two major international
entanglements without an exit strategy, forcing the kingdom to grope for a face
saving way out.

Prince Mohammed also serves as defense minister and is the
lead official responsible for the war in Yemen. Three years into the war, Saudi
Arabia’s ability to effectively deploy its massive state-of the-art military
acquisitions is in question. The war has dragged on producing a humanitarian
crisis with large numbers of people on the verge of starvation and risks of epidemics
as evident in a recent outbreak of cholera. The crisis has caused Saudi Arabia
reputational damage and promises to produce a generation of Yemenis who will
resent the suffering and destruction caused by the ill-fated invasion.

Similarly, the diplomatic and economic boycott of Qatar,
initiated by Prince Mohammed and his UAE counterpart, Mohammed bin Zayed, threatens
to backfire. The ability of Qatar, a tiny state with only 300,000 citizens, to
resist the embargo and the inability of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to put forward
demands that stand a chance of garnering international support has turned into
an embarrassment.

The US State Department took the two Gulf powers to task
this week. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in the strongest US
language yet, that “now that it has been more than two weeks since the embargo
started, we are mystified that the Gulf States have not released to the public,
nor to the Qataris, the details about the claims that they are making toward
Qatar. The more that time goes by the more doubt is raised about the actions
taken by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.”

Ms. Nauert’s comments followed a series of US steps that
appeared to strengthen Qatar in its dispute with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Those steps included a joint US-Qatari naval exercise, a $12 billion fighter
jet deal, and a statement by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson that
designation of the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization, a key demand
floated by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, was all but impossible.

Prince Mohammed, moreover, has failed to win substantial
support in the Muslim world for the Saudi-UAE campaign. Most major Muslim
nations, including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia are keen to
stay on the side lines. Turkey is supplying Qatar with food and has sent troops
to the Gulf state.

On a third front, tension with Iran has escalated since
Prince Mohammed’s rise. The prince last month poured fuel on the fire by portraying
the conflict between the two Middle Eastern rivals in sectarian rather national
or ideological terms and promising to take the fight to Iran itself. At least, regarding
Iran, Prince Mohammed enjoys the support of the United States even if, like in
the case of Qatar, much of the Muslim world does not want to be sucked into the
dispute.

Prince Mohammed has his work cut out for him. To succeed in
turning the Saudi economy around, blunting the sharp ends of Sunni Muslim ultra-conservatism,
and bringing the kingdom’s autocracy into the 21st century, Prince
Mohammed will have to demonstrate the kind of deftness and ability to build bridges
he has yet to put on display. While bold in his ambitions and willingness to
gamble, he will also need to recognize the need for exit strategies.

Prince Mohammed could well prove to be the figure that
pushes through the kind of change that will enable Saudi Arabia to successfully
compete in the 21st century. By the same token, he could also tie
the kingdom further into knots.

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About Me

James M DorseyWelcome to The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer by James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Soccer in the Middle East and North Africa is played as much on as off the pitch. Stadiums are a symbol of the battle for political freedom; economic opportunity; ethnic, religious and national identity; and gender rights. Alongside the mosque, the stadium was until the Arab revolt erupted in late 2010 the only alternative public space for venting pent-up anger and frustration. It was the training ground in countries like Egypt and Tunisia where militant fans prepared for a day in which their organization and street battle experience would serve them in the showdown with autocratic rulers. Soccer has its own unique thrill – a high-stakes game of cat and mouse between militants and security forces and a struggle for a trophy grander than the FIFA World Cup: the future of a region. This blog explores the role of soccer at a time of transition from autocratic rule to a more open society. It also features James’s daily political comment on the region’s developments. Contact: incoherentblog@gmail.comView my complete profile