Nintendo under fire: why the 3DS could take off during the holidays

The 3DS is far from dead, and Nintendo is in a wonderful position to turn the …

The accepted wisdom states that the 3DS is doomed to fail, a victim of both Nintendo's hubris and the increasing importance of gaming on smartphones. The problem with accepted wisdom is that it's so often wrong. Despite soft sales on the Nintendo Wii and a slow start with the 3DS, this could be still be a successful holiday season for the gaming giant.

This Christmas is, to put it bluntly, make or break time for the 3DS, and Nintendo is coming out swinging.

Nintendo has been the favorite whipping boy of the press and the fans alike since its disastrous earnings call last month. "The maker of the Wii game console and DS handheld slashed its forecast for the full year through next March to a $263 million net loss, it said in a statement," USA Today reported. "In July, it had predicted an annual net profit of that size." Everyone who called the Wii a fad has already begun to celebrate.

Nintendo faces a few problems, including a strong yen that has been hurting all Japanese businesses that rely on international sales. The Nintendo Wii is also suffering as fewer games of note are released and Nintendo begins courting third-party developers for the upcoming Wii U, a system we enjoyed immensely at E3. While the Wii was a success because of Nintendo's first-party games, at E3 the company stressed how many big-name games and developers were on board to create games for the upcoming system.

All that's in the future—although the Wii will likely have one last hit with the upcoming Zelda: Skyward Sword—what's important now is how Nintendo does with the 3DS, and the reports on the sales of that system have been brisk since the price cut to $170. Nintendo has stated that the 3DS sold 250,000 units in October, and 1.65 million units in the US to date. Nintendo feels strongly that the 3DS is selling well, especially in comparison to the original DS.

"The Nintendo DS system sold 2.37 million units in its first 12 months... with approximately 50 percent of those sales occurring in the holiday time frame," the company said in a statement. "With its first holiday season and the launches of the Super Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 games on the horizon, Nintendo 3DS is poised to eclipse that number and establish a new benchmark for hand-held gaming launches in the United States."

The games are certainly there, with Nintendo releasing a number of big-name releases in its core franchises this holiday season. "Being priced at $169 has put the Nintendo 3DS in the sweet spot and with the heavy line-up of some of the industry's biggest franchises Nintendo will likely thrive this holiday season, as they do every year," Jesse Divnich, the VP of capital research and communications at analytics firm EEDAR, told Ars.

Divnich pointed out the importance of first-party support in the launch of a system, and said that it's up to the console manufacturers to build support and buzz in order to attract third-party developers. "It's something Nintendo has certainly learned, but their ability to swiftly adjust their development schedules to ensure stronger first-party content is released by the end of the year speaks a lot about Nintendo's dedication to the 3DS platform," he said.

This year Nintendo has a new system it needs to push to both consumers and publishers, and it's doing that with its strongest brand: Mario. It doesn't hurt that Super Mario 3D Land is one of the best games of the year, and Mario Kart comes alive in 3D. With the lower price point, a selection of high-quality Mario titles to choose from coming to store shelves, and no Sony Vita to compete against, this is Nintendo's best chance to capitalize on the 3DS' momentum.

"The market has been too negative on Nintendo and they often forget that this is the same company that brought us the NES, Gameboy, and the Wii," Divnich said. "Nintendo will bounce back, they always do."