Tuesday, July 17, 2012

As the hot air descends upon the North Coast for the week,
the blusters of these Interwebs blow about regarding the trade activity in MLB
in anticipation of the MLB Trading Deadline on July 31st. While the Indians remain firmly entrenched in
both the AL Central race AND the Wild Card race (how strange is that if the
season were to end today, the Wild Cards would be awarded to an AL West team
and an AL Central team, with the Indians, Orioles, and Athletics coming up just
short), there are certainly some factors in play that might affect how the
Indians approach the upcoming Trade Deadline.

Some of those factors are out of their control and some of
them have to do with performances of players on their current roster – both in
past seasons and in the past month – so let’s try to sort through some of those
factors as we watch the Tomahawks fly…

__________

It is exactly two weeks away from the Trading Deadline and do
you know how many teams in the AL are more than 2 games out of the race for the
newly created second Wild Card?

Three teams out of fourteen are more than 2 games out of the
2nd Wild Card position in the American League less than two weeks
away from the July 31st Trade Deadline. Though many saw this coming
when the 2nd Wild Card was created, in terms of lessening the amount
of “sellers” at the end of July, to see this in terms of looking at standings
is nothing short of astonishing.Now,
talk away about “parity” if you’d like (although that is a misinterpretation of
the standings as the disparity between small-and-large market teams has more to
do with “margin of error” for particular teams, not “parity”), but as things
stand right now the Royals, Mariners, and Twins are the only three teams in the
AL who can really be considered “sellers”, with what those teams even willing
to part with (and see this for Exhibit A) lessening the amount of “available”
players.

While the number of teams that look to be “out of it” gets
larger in the NL, it still doesn’t mushroom.
In the NL, a little more than ½ of the teams in the league (8 of the 14
teams) are at least 7 games out of the 2nd Wild Card position, their
divisional lead, or both. However, when
you consider that the 2011 Cardinals – you know, the team that won the World
Series last year – were 10 ½ games out of their division in late August and
early September and you start to see that not many teams are going to be
willing to completely throw in the towel this early. Suddenly, you start to realize that there are
only 7 teams (SEA, MIN, PHI, CHC, SD, COL, and HOU) that are 10 games or more
out of both their division and for the 2nd Wild Card and you start
to get the sense that there may be more “buyers” than ever this year…all
looking to augment their team from an increasingly shrunken group of “sellers”.

That said, while there may be more teams that figure to be
in contention, remember that the rules of the new CBA dictate that teams no
longer get draft pick compensation if they let these FA walk at the end of the
year, which has always been an incentive for teams to hold onto their players
if they thought they still had a chance, piling up compensatory draft picks for
“lost” FA. What that means is that there
are going to be some awfully tough decisions around the league made in the next
couple of weeks as teams like the Brewers, the Marlins, the Diamondbacks, and
others will have to decide which side of the cash register they’re going to be
sitting on.

In a place like Milwaukee,
it becomes even more difficult given the new rules of the CBA as the Brewers’ GM
had this to say about Zack Grienke, a player that is rumored to be on the
block, given his impending FA:

When players get this
close (to free agency), there’s not many that will sign, at that (talent)
level,” said Melvin. “He’s a difference-maker to a team that’s got a chance to
go to the post-season. Unless you’re raising the bar (to a higher salary), you
usually go on the market.”

Shades of CC, circa 2008 there, eh?

Regardless, in addition to the Indians perhaps lacking the
prospects to make a move, the assumption that a team like the A’s (who are ½
game back of the 2nd Wild Card…just like the Trbe) is going to be
selling off pieces and parts when they’re very clearly in the mix is
myopic. Now, there may be teams that
surprise in their moves, surveying their roster and seeing a team that isn’t
likely to make a playoff push, regardless of where they sit at the end of July
and initiating a sort of “White Flag” deal…and the A’s may be one of those
teams.

Additionally, what always happens around this team is the
inflation of certain players’ values as players get hot or a certain player
becomes a hot name on the strength of VERY recent performance. We’ve seen this to some degree with Al
Soriano, who has posted a .924 OPS since the beginning of June with 12 HR in
his last 40 games. But while everyone
focuses in on how much the Cubs would be willing to “eat” his salary and begins
to salivate about what an Alfonso Soriano could mean to the Indians, check out
what Soriano (and another desired “upgrade”) have fared in the last month,
compared to that black hole that commands so much ire, the Indians’ LF:

Now you may be saying that this doesn’t really make sense
since the Indians’ LF have 133 PA, while Soriano and Quentin have 2/3 of that
amount, but remember that Soriano (though he gets the lion’s share of the time)
shares LF in Chicago with others, as does Quentin in San Diego. The Cleveland total includes contributions from that trio that has caused more hand-wringing and teeth-gnashing than any
in recent memory, with LF actually being the least of the Indians’ problems…at
least over the last month.

Now don’t take that to mean that I’m just fine and dandy
with what’s been happening in LF this year, but if you’re looking to upgrade
that spot based on production over the last month, guys like Soriano and
Quentin have actually fared worse than the Duncan/Damon/Cunningham troika. Of course, I see the value in adding a
cleaner “everyday” LF and lengthening and strengthening the bench, particularly
for the stretch run, but it’s possible that the Indians see these numbers – as
well as the numbers for their starting rotation – and say “our lineup is more
than good enough” and go in another direction for an addition, particularly
considering their lack of prospects to add to the current group in place.

Now, if you’re back to this idea that the value of certain
players gets amped up around this time and that the Tribe is looking to add an
arm to their rotation with the prospects that they have in place, I’ll go back
to banging the drum for a guy like Seattle LHP Jason Vargas, in an attempt to
make a “Fister-ian” addition.

Naturally, it doesn’t look like I’m the only one that has
noticed that Vargas is on a bit of a hot streak right now as he has a 2.12 ERA
and a 1.01 WHIP in his last 4 starts as Nick Cafardo’s always terrific “Sunday Notes” from the Boston Globe had a bit on players that might be moved at the
Trading Deadline, including this snippet on Jason Vargas:

Jason Vargas, LHP, Mariners
— Could he be this year’s Doug Fister? While all of the Seattle talk
surrounds Felix Hernandez, who is likely going nowhere, Vargas has emerged
as a hot name for contending teams. “It’s too bad his name got out there
because I think there were teams out there trying to slip in and take him for
less than full value,’’ said one American League GM. “But now he seems to be in
demand and the Mariners aren’t going to give him away. He’s a solid middle of
the rotation guy who makes a lot of sense for a lot of teams.” Baltimore,
Toronto, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Detroit, and others may have some interest. The
Mariners decided not to pitch him this weekend at Safeco (they said, to give
him more rest) where he has a 2.84 ERA, and start him in Kansas City. Vargas
has a 5.09 ERA in 11 road starts.

Though I can’t really believe that Cafardo used the same
idea that Vargas could “be this year’s Doug Fister”, it’s interesting to
continue to note that Vargas’ season totals (4.09 ERA, league-leading 25 HR
allowed) are still largely colored by one horrific outing in Arizona. In fact, Vargas’ totals (if you take out that
night in Phoenix) come up to a 3.52 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 84 K/33 BB in the
127 2/3 innings he’s thrown this season, excluding his disastrous outing
against the Diamondbacks.

Of course, as Cafardo passes along, plenty of teams are
looking at him, even if he’s seen as a “solid middle of the rotation guy” and
his price is going to continue to go up with each outing that he is able to
show durability (he has gotten through the 6th inning in 17 of his
20 starts) and effectiveness as nearly every team that is in the playoff hunt
could use a rotational upgrade. And I
don’t think that there’s much question that a “rotational upgrade” is
desirable, with the biggest reason not really being what’s happened with
certain pitchers in 2012 to date (though that’s a reason) but more with what
might be coming.

By that I mean that the Indians currently have Derek Lowe,
Josh Tomlin, and Zach McAllister holding down 60% of their rotation and while
McAllister has been terrific, let’s remember that he is still 24 and that he
only threw a combined 172 1/3 innings last year between Columbus and
Cleveland. After Monday’s game, his 2012
tally is now at 111 2/3 IP and if his inning total is being watched (as most
young pitchers do), it could come into play at some point.

But (oddly), McAllister is the least of my worries as the
other two pitchers – Lowe and Tomlin – faded down the stretch in a BIG way last
year and if either (or…gulp, both) bottom out in similar ways this year, it’s
going to be a huge blow to the idea that the Indians can continue to stick
around in any kind of race, be it the AL Central or the Wild Card. If you think I’m worrying a little too much,
look at the 1st and 2nd Half numbers (and it is here that
I acknowledge that 1st and 2nd Half numbers are divided
by a completely arbitrary date) for last year for each, starting with Lowe:

Lowe – 1st Half 2011

4.30 ERA, 1.38 WHIP with .686 OPS against

Lowe – 2nd Half 2011

6.20 ERA, 1.70 WHIP with .850 OPS against

Remember how the Braves were so willing to part with Lowe in
the off-season?

Well, those numbers start to explain why and while I’m not
going to sit here and pretend to look into a crystal ball and say that Lowe
will absolutely come off the rails as the season wears on as he’s been a solid,
steady contributor all season and the alleged tweaks that the Indians made to
his delivery have made him effective, if inconsistently effective. But Lowe’s 1st Half numbers this
year (4.43 ERA, 1.58 WHIP with a .789 OPS against) are worse than what he did
in the 1st Half last year and when you consider that his ERA is 7.16
with an .842 OPS against in his last 9 starts, you can see how worry creeps in.

With Tomlin, worry has been creeping in since about June of
last year and when you look at Tomlin’s 1st Half and 2nd
Half numbers from last year, it only tells part of the story:

Tomlin – 1st Half 2011

3.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP with .685 OPS against

Tomlin – 2nd Half 2011

5.26 ERA, 1.21 WHIP with .774 OPS against

As I said, that only tells part of the story as since June 1st
of last year, he has a 5.32 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP as his 1st Half
numbers for this year (5.45 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) are worse than his 2nd
Half numbers for 2011 and, at a certain point, the reality sets in that this
may be who Josh Tomlin is. While it may
be fun to root for The Little Cowboy and while people will continue to point to
how far he went into games last year, the fact of the matter is that he’s
posted a 5.45 ERA in his last 179 IP and that’s not good enough for a playoff
team, even as a 5th starter.

So if the Indians CAN add an arm, they can option Tomlin to
Columbus (he has 3 options still remaining) and let him enter the Gomez/Kluber
mix to be depth in case McAllister hits an inning ceiling or if Derek Lowe runs
into trouble as the season wears on, as he did last year. If they can’t add an arm, the “depth”
starters that they have in Columbus may be leaned upon more heavily than
anyone’s comfortable with, particularly for a team that’s trying to stay in
contention.

__________

Finally, I would be remiss if I didn’t comment at all on the
revelation that the Indians were one of four teams on Justin Upton’s “no-trade
list”, as revealed by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. In case you missed it, here was the write-up,
along with Rosenthal’s explanation:

Justin Upton can
block trades to four teams, major league sources told FOXSports.com:
the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland
Indians and Chicago
Cubs.

It’s not known whether
Upton would use the no-trade clause to block deals to those clubs. Often, players include high-revenue teams like the
Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs in no-trade protection, thinking that those
organizations are better positioned to offer financial inducements in an effort
to convince the player to waive the clause.

So…um, that bolded part is pretty disturbing because
Rosenthal lists 3 of the 4 of the teams on his no-trade clause, saying that
players look for some leverage if those teams were looking to acquire
them. The one that doesn’t fall into
that category is YOUR Cleveland Indian team.
Remember that whole thing that Chris Perez posited about Carlos Beltran
not wanting to come to Cleveland. If you
don’t, here it is again:

“Guys don’t want to
come over here and people wonder why…Why doesn’t Carlos Beltran want to come
over here? Well, because of that. That’s part of it. It doesn’t go unnoticed —
trust us. That’s definitely a huge reason. Nobody wants to play in front of
5,000 fans. We know the weather (stinks), but people see that. Other players
know that.

“You had a choice of
playing in St. Louis where you get 40,000 (fans) like Beltran chose to do, or
you can come to Cleveland. It’s going to take more money to get him to come to
Cleveland. That’s just how it is. That’s another thing that you have to go
against. It’s not only the payrolls of the (American League) East teams, but
that kind of stuff.”

Now, as much as Perez was vilified for those particular
comments (and others, as his comments at the time went off the rails a bit), to
see that quartet of teams listed by Upton with Rosenthal explaining the
inclusion of three of those teams – and not Cleveland – is impossible to
ignore.

Maybe Upton hasn’t seen the new casino and how it’s “saved”
downtown (tongue firmly in cheek) or seen how there are actually cranes in the
sky in Cleveland (this is actually true) and isn’t privy to the (next) rebirth
of Cleveland – and I actually like what’s happening downtown, even if I can’t
figure out why they can’t make Burke Lakefront Airport a permanent festival
grounds tied into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and host festivals like they
do in Milwaukee at SummerFest grounds, right on the water – but I’m getting
off-track.

Yeah, other than not having a lot of prospects to deal,
looking “only” for pitching and offense, the Indians have to pursue only
players that aren’t able to block being sent to the North Coast. Fun times indeed as the trade winds swirl…

8 comments:

More evidence to your point that pitching is our first priority: The Tribe is fourth in the majors for team OPS+, behind only the Angels, Yankees and Cards, while second to last in MLB team ERA+.

Maybe these are crude measures, but the numbers do tell a tale: we need starting pitching first. If Antonetti is permitted to add a bloated contract that might be of significant help in overcoming our poor farm situation. As to Pure Rage's point about attendence I can only hope a race for a post-season slot makes a difference.

I think worry over the pitching is a legit fear. Its not just Tomlin and Lowe either. Right now our only reliable pitcher that we can depend on is McAllister (who appears to be a total diamond in the rough). Jimenez was looking good until he got blown up by Toronto. Masty has looked better and better but is still erratic. I think the depth in the minors will play a role in some way or another, regardless of whether we land a pitcher via trade.

Anyone got any information on the pitchers at Columbus right now? Just taking a cursory glance the realistic options appear to be Gomez, Kluber, and Seddon. The only one I'm familiar with is Gomez. And I can't say he represents a huge upgrade over Tomlin and Lowe. He seems to suffer from the same problem that they do, in a way, in that he can't put anyone away and doesn't have an out pitch. Of the three, Kluber appears to be the best strikeout guy, but I don't know what that means. Seddon appears to be a career minor leaguer who happens to be having a decent year.

I have to say, unless Santanna and Asdrubal get their acts together, I do not think any addition at the deadline is going to matter much to the playoffs this year.

I was about to say that I have some faith in Droobs making a comeback, but then I vaguely remember a rough finish to his 2011. (I've tried to put the painfully melancholy march to suckitude that was the end of last year out of my memory as much as possible)

We may be in trouble here, unless Masterson and Ubaldo turn into the starting version of VP and CP at the end of the game.

This may be one of the most frustrating contending teams to ever follow. The only reason they are in contention at the moment is because of the Herculean efforts of those two guys at the back end of the pen. Everyone else has underwhelmed for much of the season. Listening to Tommy last night, he sounded in pain after watching the team's performances with men on base.

Perez was vilified b/c he blamed the fans for the poor attendance. It's fair enough to say that players don't want to play in front of 15K fans, but the front office is to blame for the crap product they have put on the field the past decade. 2 winning seasons in 10 years is not going to fill a stadium in ANY city.

IMO the issue is not about Cleveland as a place to live or work for these players (it's a great place, even if not NY, LA, etc.) it's about an ownership group that for right or wrong has completely turned off an entire fanbase. We sold out 6 straight years b/c the product was competitive year in and year out.

Adam,When Acta said that internal help was going to have to come from "inside this clubhouse" a couple of weeks ago, that kind of put to rest any idea that I had that Kluber, Gomez, or anyone else was going to be counted on as much more than depth.

The players that are here now (Santana, Asdrubal, Masterson, and Ubaldo most notably) that are supposed to be carrying this team are going to have to step up in a BIG way to get some momentum going here.

Don,What worries me is that ONLY Cleveland was on that list - not KC, PIT, BAL, or some other team that hasn't won in a long time, yet still routinely outdraws the Tribe.

Maybe you're right that it is all perception about the ownership, but the 6 years of sell-outs was a perfect storm (no Browns, Cavs awful, new stadium, good local economy) that isn't really applicable in present Cleveland.

And don't take my snarky comment on the Casino confuse you...I LOVE living in Cleveland and am as excited as I've been for a long time about the long-term prospects of the city.