Published: Thursday, January 3, 2013 at 2:49 p.m.

Last Modified: Thursday, January 3, 2013 at 2:49 p.m.

After managing beach front rental units on Siesta Key for 18 years, Colette Eggleston knows how devastating red tide can be to business.

The dead fish and noxious air can ruin a good beach day and scare away potential renters.

“We lost a significant amount in years when it got really bad,” she said.

So on Thursday Eggleston raised both hands and crossed her fingers in a gesture of hope that the worst red tide bloom to hit Southwest Florida in five years would stay away from Sarasota County's most prized tourist attraction, the white sands of Siesta Beach.

So far, so good for Siesta. But the same cannot be said for beaches to the south, and uncertainty is hovering over tourism businesses across Southwest Florida as prime season kicks off with a large red tide bloom lingering offshore from Tampa Bay to Naples.

The red tide first appeared about two months ago.

Scientists say there is no way to predict whether the toxic algae bloom will stick around for months and sour tourism — a key driver of the state and local economic recovery in recent years — or quickly vanish.

What they do know is that the largest concentrations of red tide algae currently are south of Venice around Manasota Key, Englewood Beach and the mouth of Charlotte Harbor. Those areas have already experienced two large waves of dead fish washing ashore, including a flare-up last week that forced Sarasota County to remove 4.5 tons of rotting fish from public beaches.

Winds have been pushing the airborne toxins and dead fish onto beaches in South County and Charlotte County, but those same northwest winds may also be preventing the worst patches of algae from coming north to more populated areas and prized beaches like Siesta Key.

Scientists are still trying to figure out why red tide is worse some years than others.

The algae occurs naturally in the Gulf, with blooms forming most years in September or October. In recent years the blooms have been minimal, largely stayed offshore or disappeared as winter approached.

“Why this one has persisted I can't say,” said Jennifer Wolny, a biologist with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission who monitors red tide reports. “That's a research question we're always trying to answer. What causes some blooms to stick around for months as opposed to weeks? We don't have the answer for that.”

The latest red tide outbreak already is the worst Southwest Florida has seen in years.

The patches of toxic algae that now stretch for more than 100 miles are considered a “pretty substantial bloom,” said Barbara Kirkpatrick, a Mote Marine Laboratory red tide expert.

Southwest Florida has not seen anything similar in scope since the devastating stretch from 2005 to early 2007 when blooms lingered near shore for months at a time, repeatedly blanketing beaches with rotting fish and foul air.

That period is not one that beach businesses want to remember, much less relive.

Tourism has rebounded strongly from the Great Recession and is setting records in some places.

At Siesta Sands on the Beach, Eggleston said all 16 units in the four beachfront buildings were booked for most of December. February and March are also booked solid.

“We had a drop off for a couple years” during the recession, Eggleston said. “Now it's back up to where it was.”

The reports of red tide farther south have not hurt business at Siesta Sands.

“No guests have mentioned it,” Eggleston said. “It has been a nothing for us.”

Guests such as Atlanta resident Arturo Murillo were unaware of the bloom.

“I don't know anything about the red tide,” said Murillo as he played with his 3-year-old daughter on the beach. “We've been having a lot of fun. It's really nice here.”

The same cannot be said in places like Placida, a fishing village south of Englewood along Gasparilla Sound.

Terri Curtis manages Grande Tours on Placida Road, a popular place to rent kayaks and explore the mangrove tunnels along the sound.

Dead mullet were heavy in the sound this week.

“When we're launching people in the kayak there are dead fish floating by,” Curtis said, adding that a trip out to the nearby beach on Boca Grande “takes your breath away” because of the red tide toxins in the air.

But Curtis is hopeful that business will not suffer too badly. There could even be an uptick from people fleeing the beach.

“If we have issues we go up the creeks where we don't have the fish kills or the smell,” she said.

<p>After managing beach front rental units on Siesta Key for 18 years, Colette Eggleston knows how devastating red tide can be to business.</p><p>The dead fish and noxious air can ruin a good beach day and scare away potential renters.</p><p>“We lost a significant amount in years when it got really bad,” she said.</p><p>So on Thursday Eggleston raised both hands and crossed her fingers in a gesture of hope that the worst red tide bloom to hit Southwest Florida in five years would stay away from Sarasota County's most prized tourist attraction, the white sands of Siesta Beach.</p><p>So far, so good for Siesta. But the same cannot be said for beaches to the south, and uncertainty is hovering over tourism businesses across Southwest Florida as prime season kicks off with a large red tide bloom lingering offshore from Tampa Bay to Naples.</p><p>The red tide first appeared about two months ago.</p><p>Scientists say there is no way to predict whether the toxic algae bloom will stick around for months and sour tourism — a key driver of the state and local economic recovery in recent years — or quickly vanish. </p><p>What they do know is that the largest concentrations of red tide algae currently are south of Venice around Manasota Key, Englewood Beach and the mouth of Charlotte Harbor. Those areas have already experienced two large waves of dead fish washing ashore, including a flare-up last week that forced Sarasota County to remove 4.5 tons of rotting fish from public beaches.</p><p>Winds have been pushing the airborne toxins and dead fish onto beaches in South County and Charlotte County, but those same northwest winds may also be preventing the worst patches of algae from coming north to more populated areas and prized beaches like Siesta Key.</p><p>Scientists are still trying to figure out why red tide is worse some years than others.</p><p>The algae occurs naturally in the Gulf, with blooms forming most years in September or October. In recent years the blooms have been minimal, largely stayed offshore or disappeared as winter approached.</p><p>“Why this one has persisted I can't say,” said Jennifer Wolny, a biologist with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission who monitors red tide reports. “That's a research question we're always trying to answer. What causes some blooms to stick around for months as opposed to weeks? We don't have the answer for that.”</p><p>The latest red tide outbreak already is the worst Southwest Florida has seen in years.</p><p>The patches of toxic algae that now stretch for more than 100 miles are considered a “pretty substantial bloom,” said Barbara Kirkpatrick, a Mote Marine Laboratory red tide expert.</p><p>Southwest Florida has not seen anything similar in scope since the devastating stretch from 2005 to early 2007 when blooms lingered near shore for months at a time, repeatedly blanketing beaches with rotting fish and foul air.</p><p>That period is not one that beach businesses want to remember, much less relive.</p><p>Tourism has rebounded strongly from the Great Recession and is setting records in some places.</p><p>At Siesta Sands on the Beach, Eggleston said all 16 units in the four beachfront buildings were booked for most of December. February and March are also booked solid.</p><p>“We had a drop off for a couple years” during the recession, Eggleston said. “Now it's back up to where it was.”</p><p>The reports of red tide farther south have not hurt business at Siesta Sands.</p><p>“No guests have mentioned it,” Eggleston said. “It has been a nothing for us.”</p><p>Guests such as Atlanta resident Arturo Murillo were unaware of the bloom.</p><p>“I don't know anything about the red tide,” said Murillo as he played with his 3-year-old daughter on the beach. “We've been having a lot of fun. It's really nice here.”</p><p>The same cannot be said in places like Placida, a fishing village south of Englewood along Gasparilla Sound.</p><p>Terri Curtis manages Grande Tours on Placida Road, a popular place to rent kayaks and explore the mangrove tunnels along the sound.</p><p>Dead mullet were heavy in the sound this week.</p><p>“When we're launching people in the kayak there are dead fish floating by,” Curtis said, adding that a trip out to the nearby beach on Boca Grande “takes your breath away” because of the red tide toxins in the air.</p><p>But Curtis is hopeful that business will not suffer too badly. There could even be an uptick from people fleeing the beach.</p><p>“If we have issues we go up the creeks where we don't have the fish kills or the smell,” she said.</p>