HOUSTON — Demand for gasoline is dropping in North America, but many U.S. refineries, especially those along the Gulf Coast, don't need to worry just yet.

U.S. demand for diesel is expected to rise slightly. But the bigger boost will come from continued exports to Latin America.

U.S. refineries have another edge: They can use lower-cost domestic crude oil from the nation's rapidly expanding shale plays instead of higher-priced imported oil.

Rodrigo Favela, executive director for refining, planning and evaluation at Hart Energy, told an audience at the company's monthly breakfast for energy executives that global demand for refined products will grow by 33 percent over two decades, driven by growing need in developing countries.

The highest volume growth will come from Asia, including China and India, followed by the Middle East and Latin America, he said.

Developing countries also will drive demand for energy overall between now and 2040, said Roland Moreau, manager of safety, security, health and environment for Exxon Mobil Corp.'s upstream research division.

Moreau recapped Exxon Mobil's global energy forecast, which was released in December. In that document, the Irving-based company predicted that the world will need 85 percent more electricity by 2040 than it used in 2010, with increasing reliance on natural gas and nuclear power.

Twenty percent of the world still doesn't have access to electricity, Moreau said.

“Good news for everyone in the room,” he said. “Oil and gas and coal aren't going away.”

But coal use will drop, overtaken by natural gas by 2025, largely because of the increased cost associated with the carbon emissions from coal, he said.

The transformation already is happening in the United States, as electric generating plants switch to natural gas to take advantage of low prices and abundant supplies because of shale gas drilling.

Shale oil has had a similar effect on refineries, which reported strong profits for the fourth quarter of 2012, in part because they switched from imported crude oil to cheaper domestic oil.

San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corp. stopped importing light foreign crude oil in the fourth quarter, replacing it with cheaper domestic crude at its refineries on the Gulf Coast and in Memphis, Tenn.

The abundance of cheap domestic crude, including oil from the Eagle Ford Shale, helped Valero post a profit of

$1 billion in the final three months of 2012, the company's best quarterly showing since 2005.

Valero CEO Bill Klesse said he expects more U.S. and Canadian crude oils to become available, so Valero is looking at ways to process even greater amounts of domestic crude.

San Antonio-based refiner Tesoro Corp. also is taking advantage of lower-cost domestic crude, including oil from North Dakota's Bakken Shale. The company, which released its fourth-quarter earnings Wednesday, said its gross refining margin more than doubled in the fourth quarter as it benefited from less expensive domestic crude oil, along with cheaper Canadian crude.

Favela, the Hart Energy executive, said those advantages keep U.S. refineries, especially those with facilities along the Gulf, in a strong position to export to Mexico and South America.

Announced refinery expansions in Mexico, Brazil and elsewhere in Latin America have been delayed, he said. And although they likely will be completed at some point, the availability of low-cost imported gasoline and diesel from the U.S. makes additional delays easier for those countries to absorb, he said.

European refineries aren't so lucky.

Demand is flat there, much as it is in the U.S. as cars and light trucks become more fuel-efficient. European refineries long have exported gasoline to the U.S., and Favela said they now are looking for alternative markets.

But they face competition from U.S. refineries in Latin America, Asia and Africa, as well as competition from refineries that are being built in those countries.

“The Europeans are in a tough position,” he said.

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Express-News Business Writer Vicki Vaughan contributed to this report.