It befuddles me why the Conservatives will throw efforts into the Maritimes when Quebec is once again looking to be in the room where it happens ... the room where it happens, the room where it happens ...

Quebec is a province that is willing to make a deal, figuratively speaking. Layton made them an offer, if you recall, basically to go along with the soft nationalists, And, of course, he had Mulcair to carry the message. The history of the BQ was an understanding that they would act as a federalist party until the moment came. The Quebec French-speaking population has a history of making deals with politicians.

Quebec will try things, and reacts to things in a collective way without being collective. It's because French-speaking Quebec is one big wriggle of kinship. People had big families until the 1960ies, so lots of people have families where there were maybe three or four aunts and uncles, and their spouses families, all included. It's like a society of cousins, and they talk to their cousins about politics. That's what they want to protect, behind the stockade of language.

But, for us, it means they can amplify their electoral effect by acting together.

So Conservatives should make the only deal that has ever made Canada work. Offer them co-leadership of the party! Energize Bernier, because he'd be the man for the job. Take it seriously. Understand that as the way of doing business in Canada -- and have that trust.

Make it clear that it requires Quebeckers to be dedicated to Canada in a pragmatic way, because we are borrowing money together.

Done right, this is now the Conservatives will become the natural governing party.

Why would you bang your head in Maritime politics under present circumstances? The Conservatives in the Maritimes are still the old Progressive Conservatives, and they play politics John A. McDonald-style. In other words, it is a fight for patronage. It's full of backstabbing and whoppers, where the poor hard-drinking Easterners imagine they are being victimized by the rest of us.

If they are going to stigmatize us with Stephen Harper, so be it. They have Danny Willams to inspire them.

I don't mean to do less, I only mean that it seems foolish to count on this. or cater to the poltical barrens. It's like giving equal weight to a riding that there is no chance of winning. It bears limited fruit unless you can see a tested opening.

I really do appreciate your optimism of growing support in Quebec.
Granted on this topic many have accused me of being overly negative.

I just don't see it happening.
Quebec receives a disproportionate amount of fiscal assistance from Ottawa and voting Bloc assured that continued. The "Orange Wave" while interesting was more of a children's tantrum then any shift in support, had the election gone a week or later would have likely faded as nearly all post election polling showed.

The NDP even elected a leader from Quebec to placate their new base and they still got their butts handed to them by the LPC within the Province.

Support in Quebec comes with a high price that Conservatives have historically been unwilling to pay. The last time they did it resulted in the destruction of the PC Party and gave rise to the Reform and BQ which gave the Liberals three straight elections with no real threat from opposition.

Harper made a huge effort in Quebec right down to the grassroots recruiting of candidates, the money and time chasing Quebec seats was unreal and when he finally got his majority he ended up with more seats in New Brunswick alone than Quebec.

Sure, we have Bernier and Gérard Deltell who are good guys to have but whats the message we want them selling?

Do we want to pay more in equalization?
Do we want to keep subsidizing private business in the Province?
Do we want to have another discussion about distinct society?

You state that Quebec is the Province willing to make a deal;
What are you willing to give up to borrow their support for four years or in the case of a minority government a few years?

That aside;
I think that there is a lot in common with the voters of Rural Quebec and the CPC but the closer to you move forward the urban centers (save for Quebec City) the harder it is to sell the masses on a platform that results in less money to the Province.

Would be interested to know what you would be willing to offer to get a deal done?
Because who knows? Maybe I am just being overly negative?

While Fortress West is looking good once again;
Ontario and Atlantic Canada need to be focuses moving forward.

The approach to 2019 almost writes itself.
On nearly every issue pertaining to the Economy the Liberals are not polling well, the CPC needs to capitalize on that.

what surprises me is the liberals and media seem to be really caught off guard by the low numbers . they both seemed to think trudeau's personal popularity was enough to keep them at 40% or more for years to come

it like the liberals came to power with the naïve idea that they didn't have to address any real issues or that people were so in love with the trudeau's they could do whatever they wanted and no once would pay any attention ?

they seemed to forget that people actually do care about pocket book issues that affect there daily lives and that they expect a government to keep there election promises

this is a government that was living some sort of fairy tale distant from reality , they are now coming back to earth and don't know what to do

its like they didn't think Canadians were expecting any real results or cared how much they drove the country into debt ?

While Fortress West is looking good once again;
Ontario and Atlantic Canada need to be focuses moving forward.

The approach to 2019 almost writes itself.
On nearly every issue pertaining to the Economy the Liberals are not polling well, the CPC needs to capitalize on that.

what surprises me is the liberals and media seem to be really caught off guard by the low numbers . they both seemed to think trudeau's personal popularity was enough to keep them at 40% or more for years to come

it like the liberals came to power with the naïve idea that they didn't have to address any real issues or that people were so in love with the trudeau's they could do whatever they wanted and no once would pay any attention ?

they seemed to forget that people actually do care about pocket book issues that affect there daily lives and that they expect a government to keep there election promises

this is a government that was living some sort of fairy tale distant from reality , they are now coming back to earth and don't know what to do

its like they didn't think Canadians were expecting any real results or cared how much they drove the country into debt ?

Sooner or later you need to be accountable to the electorate for what you promised and what you delivered.

Lots can be said about Stephen Harper but in 2006 he campaigned on promises he largely kept regardless of how many reacted to their implementation.

In 2015 the promise was small deficits and a balanced budget by the next election, a change to the electorate system, a more fair tax system that resulted in the majority of Canadians paying less, more transparency, and better opportunities for business.

Its two years in and the Liberals look like they said what they need to in order to get elected, how its a matter of if they can find an issue to distract from that leading into the next election.

While Fortress West is looking good once again;
Ontario and Atlantic Canada need to be focuses moving forward.

The approach to 2019 almost writes itself.
On nearly every issue pertaining to the Economy the Liberals are not polling well, the CPC needs to capitalize on that.

what surprises me is the liberals and media seem to be really caught off guard by the low numbers . they both seemed to think trudeau's personal popularity was enough to keep them at 40% or more for years to come

it like the liberals came to power with the naïve idea that they didn't have to address any real issues or that people were so in love with the trudeau's they could do whatever they wanted and no once would pay any attention ?

they seemed to forget that people actually do care about pocket book issues that affect there daily lives and that they expect a government to keep there election promises

this is a government that was living some sort of fairy tale distant from reality , they are now coming back to earth and don't know what to do

its like they didn't think Canadians were expecting any real results or cared how much they drove the country into debt ?

Sooner or later you need to be accountable to the electorate for what you promised and what you delivered.

Lots can be said about Stephen Harper but in 2006 he campaigned on promises he largely kept regardless of how many reacted to their implementation.

In 2015 the promise was small deficits and a balanced budget by the next election, a change to the electorate system, a more fair tax system that resulted in the majority of Canadians paying less, more transparency, and better opportunities for business.

Its two years in and the Liberals look like they said what they need to in order to get elected, how its a matter of if they can find an issue to distract from that leading into the next election.

its clear the liberals followed the "Gerard Butts " Dalton mcguinty playbook , where you say/promise whatever it takes to remove the conservative government from power and then when you actually get in , decide to do otherwise and break most of the initial promises

sadly this is why its almost certain the conservatives will become the target heading into the 2019 election , they should expect fierce attacks over issues we though were long forgotten like abortion and same sex marriage ( or any other issue that emerges like the faith based schools election we saw in Ontario in 2007 ) ,

or like we saw over alberta mp Rachel Harder , an otherwise hardworking and outstanding mp who was suddenly smeared with the anti abortion brush even though she's never taken a stand publically or said much about abortion , he crime seemed to have been voting for a pro life bill

That's not sad imho, but what it takes is a willingness to make hay from these expected attacks.

If Wynne tries to make the election about abortion, the response has to be something that takes the focus back to her government's record. Maybe use it as a bridge to the new sex education, or transsexual policies, etc. There are probably better items, but Brown should use these anticipated attacks to boomerang the remarks back at her.

Her government's performance, as an administration, is dismal. That should be the focus.

Wynne is an expert at doing this -- look at how she took suspicious talk about her appearing in a trial of two of her henchmen around. She's got skills at all the low arts of politics.

or like we saw over alberta mp Rachel Harder , an otherwise hardworking and outstanding mp who was suddenly smeared with the anti abortion brush even though she's never taken a stand publically or said much about abortion , he crime seemed to have been voting for a pro life bill

The Liberals need a wedge issue;
At this point they need anything they can grab onto in order to get any sort of traction.

The stunt they pulled in committee with Rachel Harder was something I would expect suggested from a first year PR intern.

They are trying to open any issue they can to take away from the current taxation problem they have.

The Liberals greatest successes often come when they make an election about "Us Vs. Them", its never been One Canada you are either in front of us or behind us.

The challenge they have now is Singh is a more charismatic, more experienced, younger version of Trudeau and he is from Ontario.

These frantic grasps to paint another younger and more experienced leader like Scheer no longer just benefit the LPC, it drives people to the NDP.

( there is a new detailed poll by abacus data , numbers not as close as others but has some interesting bits of information for Ontario and BC )

Canadian Politics Update: A more competitive political landscape

October 26, 2017

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

Over the late summer, Canada’s political situation became more competitive, as Liberal Party support dipped, and the Conservatives saw gains. Today, an election would see 39% vote Liberal, 35% Conservative and 15% NDP.

The biggest regional races show a dead heat in Ontario, a narrowing Liberal lead in BC, while in Quebec the Liberals continue to lead by 21 points, although we do see a rise in BQ support.

One factor that hampers federal Liberal fortunes in Ontario is the unpopularity of Premier Wynne’s Liberal provincial government. Fully 71% in the province disapprove of the job being done by the Liberals provincially, and among those people, the federal Liberals trail the federal Conservatives by a whopping 28 points.

However, the challenges of the Wynne government are only part of what’s diminished federal Liberal support. Approval levels for the Trudeau government have dipped to 40% with 38% indicating disapproval. This level of disapproval is up a sharp 8 points since our reading in September.

While support for the Liberal Party and approval of the Trudeau government has slipped, impressions of the Prime Minister himself have remained relatively steady, and positive. Today, 48% say they have a positive view of Mr. Trudeau, 31% negative.

Probing on the PM’s performance across a range of issues reveals that his job ratings slid roughly 5 points on several items, while dropping 12 points on the question of refugees and 9 points on handling taxpayers’ money.

The strongest ratings for the Prime Minister are for openness and accessibility, his representation of Canada internationally and in the Canada US sphere, on climate change and his personal values. A healthy majority give him good marks for handling the economy. Weakest ratings are on refugees, taxes and fiscal management.

One of the highest profile issues in recent months has been the proposed changes to tax rules for privately incorporated individuals. Our probing on this issue reveals that 37% have been following this debate at least somewhat closely, but most have not.

There is more opposition to (36%) than support (19%) for the proposed changes, while a plurality indicates they “can go along with” the changes. Among those who are following this debate most closely, opposition is far greater than support. Among those who’ve only been following it somewhat closely, 37% oppose, while 29% support the moves.

Among those who voted Liberal in 2015, 30% support the government’s proposals, 21% oppose, and 50% say they “can go along with” the ideas. Opposition is greater than support among NDP voters as well.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “At the mid-way point in their mandate the Liberals enjoy good levels of support in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, BC, and substantial support in Ontario. The Prime Minister remains personally quite popular. At the same time, these numbers reveal a tighter, more competitive situation is developing, especially with the Conservative Party of Canada.

Approval levels for the government are relatively good on international affairs and economic management, but weaker on fiscal, tax and the question of refugees, suggesting that some of the core issues that were animating to Conservative voters are a large part of what’s causing a more competitive situation to develop. Premier Wynne’s very low approval ratings are also a challenge for the federal Liberal brand in Ontario today.

Reaction to the proposed tax changes on individual private corporations have been a drag on Liberal support, both because they animated Conservative Party supporters and because the fairness proposition of the government has failed to generate enthusiasm among Liberal and NDP voters.”

According to David Coletto: “While Liberal Party support is roughly at the level the party earned in the last election, the challenges the government has faced the past month has had an impact on its support. Liberal vote intention is down four nationally and we have seen a sharp drop in the government’s job approval. Despite this, the Prime Minister remains a popular figure and his personal numbers have not been affected – 48% have a positive impression of him. The numbers confirm he remains a strong asset for his party and the government.

The Conservatives can take some solace in these numbers. They have hit a high mark in our vote intention tracking since the election and the government seems a bit more vulnerable today than only a few weeks ago. But as a future release will highlight, Andrew Scheer remains a largely unknown figure and despite having a fertile environment to increase familiarity with him, most Canadians know very little about the Leader of the Opposition.

The data also confirms the considerable headwinds the NDP and its new leader, Jagmeet Singh, face. We find no “bounce” in support for the NDP after his win and instead see troubling signs in Quebec (support down 8), tepid support in Ontario (down to 13%) and little growth in BC. This doesn’t mean that NDP support can’t or won’t grow. But given the challenges the Liberals have faced recently and the opportunity a new, exciting, and interesting leader affords a party, I would have expected a bounce in NDP support.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over between October 20th to October 23rd, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

CPC and LPC being tied in Ontario is positive considering how far ahead the LPC had been on Ontario just a few months ago.

That reduces the LPC to a minority of an election is held with that result.

Quebec is expected;
NDP support will likely trend back furthers with the BQ eating up all those gains.

The NDP crater in BC is somewhat surprising but I would imagine Singh will be in Ontario and BC a lot over the break so early next year should be an interesting indicator of where they plan to try and make up for the pending losses in Quebec

You overlook the ability of our new leader to keep our party in the background and out of contention.

I don't understand how you can hope for Singh to have an impact that will benefit Conservatives, and tolerate a leader as lacklustre as this one. If having an impact is a good thing, why wouldn't we want a do-over on our obviously screwed up election process?

We have elected someone who is remarkable for how little 'impact' he has had.

You overlook the ability of our new leader to keep our party in the background and out of contention.

I don't understand how you can hope for Singh to have an impact that will benefit Conservatives, and tolerate a leader as lacklustre as this one. If having an impact is a good thing, why wouldn't we want a do-over on our obviously screwed up election process?

We have elected someone who is remarkable for how little 'impact' he has had.

Can we talk about this? Or is it verboten?

If you want to sit on a stool next to me and cry into our beers that we didn't get our guy and how Bernier would have been the better leader, beers are on me.

However there is no appetite to pitch Scheer amongst the party;
So our options are limited

1) We sit on our hands till 2019, hope for a second Trudeau Majority and that the party goes down the typical Liberal Path and pitches Scheer after one election loss and he is replaced with Bernier

2) We dance with the one we have, as unimpressive as we feel he may be.

At the moment I am in the "2" camp, while I am not crazy about Scheer my apathy toward his leadership is still less of a determent than my desire for another four years of this current leadership in Ottawa hoping the party faithful gets its right the second time.

Don't mistake my hope for a CPC victory as an endorsement of Scheer but rather an indictment against Trudeau's governance.

Right now Scheer for whatever reason is polling nearly 8 points higher than the CPC was a month prior to the leadership race.

I am not a hearts and minds guy, I am a win with the numbers that work guy.
An MP elected with 29% of the vote still is counted the same way in the Commons as an MP with 75% of the vote, hence the LPC majority.

The CPC won 25 ridings in the GTA (416 & 905) and of those 25 won 6 with more than 50% of the popular vote (Flaherty, Kent, and Fantino amongst those 6)

Of those 25 ridings the CPC retained 3 on election night 2015.

The difference?
A small dip in actual CPC votes but a massive shift in NDP votes to the LPC and a significant amount of new voters voting LPC.

The conclusion?
The NDP isn't competitive in the 905s and I would argue their appeal in the 416 Federal is not as strong as we usually associate with Urban Ridings.

Singh is the great Conservative Hope for that reason;
If only for the fact that if he doubles NDP support in the GTA at the expense of the Liberals (as Layton did)

The CPC adds 18 seats, the NDP adds 4.

Considering the LPC is presently enjoying a 14 seat majority, I will take it.

You overlook the ability of our new leader to keep our party in the background and out of contention.

I don't understand how you can hope for Singh to have an impact that will benefit Conservatives, and tolerate a leader as lacklustre as this one. If having an impact is a good thing, why wouldn't we want a do-over on our obviously screwed up election process?

We have elected someone who is remarkable for how little 'impact' he has had.

Can we talk about this? Or is it verboten?

I don't see Scheer as having no impact , perhaps he's stayed low profile . I don't see there being any appetite for another leadership race . he was also supported by a lot of mp's and there fairly content with things at the moment .

if the ndp grows at the expense of the liberals , that would likely help the cpc in some ridings
but at this point its too early to say what kind of impact Singh will actually have

If you want to sit on a stool next to me and cry into our beers that we didn't get our guy and how Bernier would have been the better leader, beers are on me.

However there is no appetite to pitch Scheer amongst the party;
So our options are limited

1) We sit on our hands till 2019, hope for a second Trudeau Majority and that the party goes down the typical Liberal Path and pitches Scheer after one election loss and he is replaced with Bernier

2) We dance with the one we have, as unimpressive as we feel he may be.

At the moment I am in the "2" camp, while I am not crazy about Scheer my apathy toward his leadership is still less of a determent than my desire for another four years of this current leadership in Ottawa hoping the party faithful gets its right the second time.

Don't mistake my hope for a CPC victory as an endorsement of Scheer but rather an indictment against Trudeau's governance.

Right now Scheer for whatever reason is polling nearly 8 points higher than the CPC was a month prior to the leadership race.

I am not a hearts and minds guy, I am a win with the numbers that work guy.
An MP elected with 29% of the vote still is counted the same way in the Commons as an MP with 75% of the vote, hence the LPC majority.

The CPC won 25 ridings in the GTA (416 & 905) and of those 25 won 6 with more than 50% of the popular vote (Flaherty, Kent, and Fantino amongst those 6)

Of those 25 ridings the CPC retained 3 on election night 2015.

The difference?
A small dip in actual CPC votes but a massive shift in NDP votes to the LPC and a significant amount of new voters voting LPC.

The conclusion?
The NDP isn't competitive in the 905s and I would argue their appeal in the 416 Federal is not as strong as we usually associate with Urban Ridings.

Singh is the great Conservative Hope for that reason;
If only for the fact that if he doubles NDP support in the GTA at the expense of the Liberals (as Layton did)

The CPC adds 18 seats, the NDP adds 4.

Considering the LPC is presently enjoying a 14 seat majority, I will take it.

My feeling is that the Liberals are falling apart because the media is asking questions, and their 'cover stories' are so weak. It isn't because any of the opposition politicians have landed a blow.

If my assumptions are right, the Liberals will tighten up a few things, but they won't stop doing whatever they are doing that is losing them support. They won't let up on the business tax issue just as they were determined to erase the memory of Mike Harris and blundered into the Caledonia mess in Ontario, as a result. Nothing improved. They went on to careen into into an ever-worsening set of crises.

Granted, that's just a projection taken from their past performance, but still ... I feel the appropriate role for Scheer is to fight the craziness with all he's got, in an effective manner.

The playbook says Scheer should (1) make a dramatic entrance into the political spotlight; and (2) look for a quick 'accomplishment', ie. a way of showing he makes a difference.

He isn't doing either thing, and he's had opportunities.

Individuals have their limitations. Leadership sometimes consists of getting the right person in the right role, and not hogging all the limelight.

If you have a problem in one area, you bring another voice forward, and talk about the team.

In the end, we want someone who is effective in winning government. Secondly, we want to see quality judgement and good decisions demonstrated -- not ideological pandering.

What quality decisions has Scheer demonstrated? What sense that he can be effective has he generated? What excitement?

I don't say start a rebellion, but surely there is some way that he can be smartened up by the senior figures of the party? It isn't even my own dissatisfaction, I could live with that if he was showing me some strategy, or doing something to define himself just because if he doesn't, the other side will.

( the forum poll still shows the conservatives with a small lead over the liberals )

Liberals haven’t rebounded from summer dip in the polls: Forum research

A new public opinion poll by Forum Research shows a dip in popularity that began for the federal Liberals this summer is still there.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks at a Liberal Party fundraiser at the Laurier Club in Toronto earlier this month. The latest Forum Research poll shows that the dip in popularity the Liberal Party first saw this summer has not improved.

By Donovan VincentNews reporter

Mon., Nov. 13, 2017

The popularity of the federal Liberals hasn’t rebounded since their dip this summer, while support for the Conservatives has improved, according to a public opinion poll from Forum Research.

The poll, conducted Nov. 4-6, found 38 per cent of Canadians surveyed supported the Conservatives, while 36 per cent said they would vote Liberal. For the front-runners that’s virtually unchanged from Forum’s results in mid-September when the Liberals were at 35 per cent and the Conservatives were at 39 per cent.

But those September numbers reflected a dip in popularity for the Liberal government, which was at 42 per cent in the polls in mid-August. The Conservatives have improved from 34 per cent support at that time.

Support for the NDP has remained steady, despite the fact the party elected Jagmeet Singh as its new leader on Oct. 1. The NDP was at 14 per cent in mid-August, 15 per cent in September, and 14 per cent in the latest poll last week.

The Green party, which had 4 per cent support in August and September, increased to 6 per cent in November.

Similarly, the Bloc Québécois was steady at 4 per cent, 5 per cent and 6 per cent respectively in those three months beginning in August.

Bill Morneau opens up about his path to the political hot seat

Scheer and Singh take different paths in bid to become known to voters: Tim Harper

“The Liberals’ dip in popularity, first identified by Forum in September, has steadied in November, but (the fact) that it hasn’t rebounded suggests their down numbers might be more than just a blip,” said Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research.

“There are still two years before the next election, which is an eternity in politics, but clearly some of the negatively received policies introduced by the Liberals of late have begun to hinder their overall support.”

Bozinoff attributed the Liberals’ decline since August to the government’s handling of the small business tax file, as well as controversies over Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s perceived conflict of interest and how he has managed his personal finances while in his post.

Morneau faced a torrent of criticism from farmers, doctors, small business people and opposition critics in the House over tax reforms he unveiled in July aimed at closing loopholes in the tax system that benefit small business owners.

In the fall he faced personal attacks over the way he has managed his finances. Among the developments was the discovery he hadn’t placed in a blind trust a large number of shares from a family business he used to run. He had promised to do so when he was first elected in 2015.

“It’s all been badly received, Morneau’s handling of everything and his own perceived conflict of interest,” Bozinoff added.

Despite their dip in support, the latest poll numbers would give the Liberals a minority government, due to vote distribution. The Liberals would secure 164 of 338 seats, the Conservatives 148, the NDP 15, the Bloc 11 and the Greens two seats, Forum says.

The results, collected from 1,281 randomly selected voters, are considered accurate, plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Trudeau's bubble has popped -- at least in part. The economy is perking along, and there aren't any problems, and he's still sagging in the polls. It isn't because the opposition politicians of either party have laid a glove on him. It's because of the media doing their job -- how rare is that?

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