Friday, October 31, 2014

NYT/CBS/YouGov Poll: Ducey 49%, DuVal 40%

The New York Times/CBS News/YouGov poll released this week has bad news for Democrat Fred DuVal: Republican Doug Ducey has a 9 percentange point lead, according the survey taken Oct. 16-Oct. 23.

The breakdown in the poll is fascinating: Ducey is getting 56 percent of men, while DuVal is getting just 36 percent. Women are breaking pretty evenly, with 44 percent going with DuVal and 43 percent going with Ducey.

And check out the generation gap: DuVal gets 54 percent of voters 18 to 29 years old, while Ducey gets just 33 percent. And DuVal gets 53 percent of voters aged 30 to 44, while Ducey gets 37 percent. But as the electorate skews older, Ducey finds a lot more support: Among voters 6-plus, Ducey lands the support of 61 percent, while DuVal gets just 32 percent.

There's a race factor at work, too: Ducey gets the support of 53 percent of the white voters, while DuVal gets the support of just 37 percent. DuVal has a lead among Hispanic voters, but not by as big a margin: Duval has the support of 48 percent, while Ducey has the support of 42 percent. That's remarkably close, given that Ducey has indicated that he'd continue anti-Latino policies such as denying driver's licenses to DREAMers while DuVal has said he'd have a DREAMer lead the pledge of allegiance at his inaugural.

A poll is, as always, just a snapshot in time and other surveys have shown a closer race. But unless Democrats can get out younger and non-white voters, Republicans will probably have a good statewide showing on Tuesday.