At the moment the Yankees are a little more than halfway through their offseason. It has been 68 days since their ALDS Game Four loss and there are 58 days to go until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Hooray for being closer to Spring Training than the ALDS. Baseball is approaching.

The Yankees have been fairly busy this offseason, most notably adding James Paxton and re-signing several players (Brett Gardner, J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia). They also added some depth pieces through waiver claims and minor trades. Still on the offseason to-do list is find a Didi Gregorius replacement and also bolster the bullpen. That’s the short version. There are still other needs as well.

With the Winter Meetings over and the Yankees slightly more than halfway through their offseason, I figured this was as good a time as any to take a step back and examine the current state of the roster. The projected 25-man Opening Day roster, that is. Here’s what we know right now:

That is a sneaky number of OPEN spots! I count seven. Four in the bullpen, two on the bench, and one at either second base or shortstop. The Yankees of course have in-house options for those seven OPEN spots and, in some cases, the in-house options are preferable to spending on a back of the roster player(s). Why spend money on a utility infielder who is no lock to perform better than Wade or Albert or Locastro, you know?

There are 18 healthy players on the 40-man roster who are not part of my projected big league roster in that table. We can drop those 18 players into one of five buckets. Let’s do exactly that.

1. Going to the minors (4). I think we can safely assume Abreu, Acevedo, Higashioka, and Estrada are going to begin 2019 in the minors. Higashioka is the third catcher and both Abreu and Acevedo have development remaining. They’re not MLB ready. Estrada missed basically the entire 2018 season with various injuries and needs to catch up on lost at-bats. The Yankees have plenty of other infield options.

2. Out of options (6). Six of those 18 players can not be sent to the minors next year without passing through waivers: Alberto, Bridwell, Cessa, Cole, German, and Kahnle. Chances are a few of these guys will be gone before Spring Training begins — the Yankees still have to open a 40-man spot for Happ, for example — but they’re on the roster right now, so they get dropped in this bucket.

Being out of options does not guarantee a player an MLB roster spot but it can be a tiebreaker. If, for example, the final bench spot comes down to Alberto or Wade, it could go to Alberto because he can’t be sent down and Wade can. Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they want German (long man/spot starter) and Kahnle (middle reliever) to shove in Spring Training and grab bullpen spots. But, if Bridwell or Cessa or Cole appear to be better options, then they’ll get the Opening Day bullpen assignments.

3. Other bullpen candidates (4). Adams, Harvey, Loaisiga, and Tarpley are bullpen candidates in addition to those out-of-options arms. Tarpley strikes me as most likely to win an Opening Day roster spot simply based on the fact he impressed enough in September to get an ALDS roster spot. Also, he and Chapman are the only lefty relievers on the 40-man roster, and Chapman’s the closer. He’s not going to be brought into a sixth inning matchup situation. Left-on-left relievers are largely disappearing from baseball, but Tarpley could crack the Opening Day roster.

Tarpley. (Getty)

My hunch is the Yankees want Loaisiga to go to Triple-A to begin next year. He impressed in his four-start cameo this summer (not so much in September) but the kid has never pitched in Triple-A and he has 196 career innings to his credit. I don’t think the Yankees would hesitate to carry Loaisiga in their bullpen next year if he’s one of their best options — he has a scary injury history and you might as well get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again — but, in a perfect world, they’d be able to send him to Triple-A for more tune-up work.

Adams and Harvey are straight up bullpen candidates. Surely the Yankees hope to have better options come Spring Training, but, if they don’t, Adams and especially Harvey could win bullpen jobs. Adams might be at a disadvantage given his ability to start. The Yankees could send him to Triple-A to remain stretched out as the sixth starter and go with someone else in the bullpen. Adams wouldn’t be the first guy to lose out on a big league bullpen gig because the team wants stash him in Triple-A as a starter.

4. Second base/shortstop options (2). Assuming Estrada is indeed ticketed for Triple-A, the top in-house second base/shortstop candidates aside from Alberto are Locastro and Wade. I expect the Yankees to add a middle infielder at some point between now and Spring Training, but, if they don’t, those are the internal options. Locastro and Wade (and Alberto). Seeing how Wade was the Opening Day second basemen this year, and Locastro is more of an outfielder who can play second base than the other way around, I think Wade would be the guy right now. If the season started today, Wade and Gleyber Torres would be the starting middle infielders. That’s what I think.

5. Other bench candidates (2). We’re down to two names: Bird and Frazier. Two former top prospects who have lost a lot of time to injuries in recent years. We know all about Bird’s problems. Last year’s oblique injury and this year’s concussion issues have limited Frazier to 745 plate appearances and 182 total games the last two years. That’s a real bummer. Had he been healthy this past season, Clint could’ve filled in for Judge in August and who knows, perhaps he plays well enough to win the 2019 left field job outright and convince the Yankees to move on from Gardner.

As for Bird, gosh, I don’t know what the Yankees will do with him. Voit has clearly jumped him on the first base depth chart, but the Yankees do love Bird, and would it really shock anyone if they carried him on the bench next year? I mean, they did this year, right? It’s one thing to do it in August and just buy time until rosters expand on September 1st. It’s another to do it on Opening Day. The Yankees are an eight-man bullpen/three-man bench team and using two of those three bench spots on a backup catcher and a backup first baseman seems … unwise.

The x-factor here is Ellsbury. He’s coming back from major hip surgery and Brian Cashman is already hedging against Ellsbury being ready for Opening Day, but, if he is ready, he might get a bench spot by default. I think it is far more likely the Yankees will release Ellsbury than carry him on the roster next year, but what do I know? If he’s healthy and Frazier needs Triple-A time after all the injuries, carrying Ellsbury as the reserve outfielder could very well be in the cards. As for Gray, the other guy in limbo, he’s a goner. He’ll be traded at some point.

* * *

To me, Locastro is the under-the-radar guy to watch. He can play almost anywhere, he’s a .307/.402/.443 (128 wRC+) hitter in 471 career Triple-A plate appearances, he’s a great runner (169-for-208 career stealing bases, an 81% success rate), and he doesn’t strike out much (career 11.5% strikeouts). I’m not saying I want Locastro on the Opening Day roster. I’m just saying he’s currently the odds on favorite to be this year’s “no one expected him to make the team but he did” guy.

Anyway, we had seven OPEN spots in our original table and this is how I think the Yankees would fill them if the season started today, which thankfully it does not.

Catcher

Infielders

Outfielders

Rotation

Bullpen

Gary Sanchez

1B Voit

LF Gardner

Happ

CL Chapman

2B Torres/Wade

CF Hicks

Paxton

SU Betances

SS Torres/Wade

RF Judge

Sabathia

SU Green

3B Andujar

OF Stanton

Severino

MR Holder

BENCH

Tanaka

MR Kahnle

C Romine

DISABLED LIST

MR Tarpley

IF Alberto

Ellsbury

Heller

LG Cessa

UTIL Locastro

Gregorius

Montgomery

LG German

That leaves the out-of-options Bridwell and Cole out in the cold — the Yankees really seems to like Cessa — Loaisiga and Frazier getting regular playing time in Triple-A, and Bird in Scranton. As much as the Yankees like (or liked, once upon a time) Bird, I think they’re at the point where they need to see health and production before giving him a roster spot. That Voit is around as a viable first base alternative makes this even more likely.

Would the Yankees play Wade at second base and Torres at shortstop, or the other way around? Either way works, really. I think I’d prefer Wade at short and Torres at second because second base is Gleyber’s likely long-term position and he still has only 132 career games worth of experience at the position. My preference, whether the Yankees go internal with Wade (nah) or bring in a middle infielder from outside the organization (yup), is to keep Torres at second base. I’d have no problem with him at short. Second would be my preference though.

Anyway, this is all a very long way of me saying the Yankees still have some unresolved roster spots, maybe more than anyone realized. The middle infield is unsettled, two bench spots are unclaimed, and there are four open bullpen spots. It’s easy to see why the Yankees want two relievers, right? Yes, they can fill some of those spots internally and I’m sure they will. Filling all of them internally seems like a non-option though. The good news is there’s lots of offseason remaining. The bad news is the Yankees still have a sneaky large amount of work to do this winter.

Here’s where the game of baseball is these days: The Yankees used 26 different pitchers this year, the eighth most in franchise history. That is also the fifth fewest pitchers used by any team this season. The Blue Jays led the way with 36 different pitchers in 2018. The Rockies used only 21 different pitchers, the fewest in baseball, if you can believe that. Wild.

Two of those 26 pitchers to wear pinstripes in 2018 were shuttle veteran Luis Cessa and newcomer Jonathan Loaisiga. Both went up-and-down this year — Cessa moreso than Loaisiga — but they held different roles. Cessa was the quintessential spot starter. Call him up, start him, send him down. Loaisiga had a somewhat extended run in the rotation. They finished with similar numbers (5.24 ERA/3.74 FIP vs. 5.11 ERA/3.53 FIP). Let’s review their seasons.

Luis Cessa

Cessa’s third year as an up-and-down depth arm featured eight (!) separate call-ups — four times he was called up to make a spot start or long relief appearance and sent down the next day — and 44.2 innings with a 5.24 ERA (3.74 FIP) spread across five starts and eleven relief appearances. He also missed two months with an oblique injury and threw 26.1 innings with a 2.73 ERA (2.38 FIP) with Triple-A Scranton. Typical Luis Cessa stuff, basically.

The Good: Cessa started the season with two 1-2-3 inning short relief appearances, during which he struck out three of six batters faced. He also strung together back-to-back good starts against the Orioles (6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K) and Rays (5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K) in July.

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Also, Cessa had a nice little run as a multi-inning mop-up guy late in the season. He even recorded his first career save when he threw the final three innings of a blowout win over the O’s on August 25th. From August 25th through September 29th, Cessa made six appearances and threw three innings in five of them, and posted a 3.18 ERA (2.16 FIP) with 18 strikeouts in 17 innings. Opponents hit .250/.271/.382 against him. That’ll work.

The Bad: Pretty much everything else. The Red Sox hung five runs on Cessa in 3.2 innings on August 2nd. Next time out the Rays punished him for five runs in 3.1 innings. And, on the final day of the regular season, Cessa allowed four runs in one-third of an inning and left the game with a hip injury after he stumbled covering first base. Fourteen of the 27 runs he allowed this year came in those three games. That’s 52% of his runs in 16% of his innings.

The Future: This past season was Cessa’s final minor league option year, which means he has to pass through waivers to go to Triple-A going forward. This is not a good place to be, out of options and unestablished at the MLB level. I like Cessa more than most and I wish the Yankees would just stick him in short relief. The velocity is good and his slider has a comfortably above-average swing-and-miss rate. Stick him in the bullpen and see what happens when he airs it out for an inning at a time, you know?

Cessa will turn 27 in April and he did keep his 40-man roster spot through yesterday’s Rule 5 Draft protection deadline, but that is hardly a guarantee he will make it through the offseason. The Yankees could cast him aside to clear 40-man space in the coming weeks. For now, Cessa remains in the organization, and since he’s out of options, he’ll get a chance to win the proverbial last guy in the bullpen spot come Spring Training until further notice.

Jonathan Loaisiga

Mr. Lasagna. (Mike Stobe/Getty)

What a rise for Johnny Lasagna. At this time last year he was intriguing lower level arm who’d just returned from Tommy John surgery and had thrown 103.2 innings in his career, only 2.1 of which were above the short season leagues. Loaisiga was mentioned as a sleeper and the Yankees liked him enough to put him on the 40-man roster despite the injuries and inexperience. After four dominant starts with High-A Tampa (1.35 ERA and 1.18 FIP) and six okay starts with Double-A Trenton (4.32 ERA and 3.33 FIP) this year, he was in the big leagues. Crazy.

The Yankees were of course extremely careful with Loaisiga while in the minors. He has a long injury history and hadn’t thrown many innings in his career, so he made almost every minor league start with six days rest this year. Loaisiga was a once a week starter, basically. Also, in his ten minor league starts before being called up, he never threw more than five innings or 89 pitches. The Yankees treated him with kid gloves. That didn’t stop them from calling him up.

“He’s really talented, we think he has a very bright future. His stuff is really good. He’s a guy that pounds the strike zone,” said Aaron Boone. “Just getting to know him a little bit this spring, we don’t think he’ll be overwhelmed pitching here at Yankee Stadium in the big leagues. We feel like his repertoire, his stuff will allow him to have a chance to be successful for us.”

A promising four-start cameo — Loaisiga replaced Masahiro Tanaka in the rotation after Tanaka pulled both hamstrings running the bases — and a pretty crummy September bullpen stint gave Loaisiga a 5.11 ERA (3.53 FIP) with 33 strikeouts and 12 walks in 24.2 big league innings this year. It was a 3.00 ERA (2.88 FIP) in 18 innings as a starter and a 10.80 ERA (5.26 FIP) in 6.2 innings as a reliever.

The Good: In his big league debut Loaisiga struck out six in five scoreless innings against the Rays on June 15th. He looked poised and his fastball topped out at 97.7 mph, which was pleasantly surprising. Loaisiga’s best start was his third start. He tossed five no-hit innings in Philadelphia before giving up a sixth inning leadoff single to Jorge Alfaro. His night ended with that one hit allowed in 5.1 scoreless innings. He struck out eight.

?

In September, Loaisiga struck out four in two scoreless innings in Oakland on September 3rd. I was hoping he’d emerge as a multi-inning relief weapon in those final few weeks of the regular season — a higher end version of Adam Warren, basically — but it didn’t happen. Two very good starts and one nice two-inning relief appearances were the highlights of Loaisiga’s big league debut.

In terms of stuff, man did the kid show the goods. Loaisiga’s fastball averaged 95.9 mph. His breaking ball averaged 84.6 mph. His changeup averaged 88.2 mph. Everything he throws is hard. Also, Loaisiga’s average spin rates are quite good:

Fastball: 2,341 rpm (MLB average: 2,263 rpm)

Breaking ball: 2,648 rpm (MLB average: 2,434 rpm)

Changeup: 1,720 rpm (MLB average: 1,774 rpm)

The higher the spin, the better on fastballs and breaking balls. For changeups, lower spin is better. (Low spin is okay on fastballs too. You don’t want average spin on heaters though. High or low, nothing in between.) Loaisiga showed three legitimate Major League pitches in his brief time with the Yankees and he got swings and misses with everything. The kid also seemed very composed on the mound. Innings rarely spiraled out of control.

The Bad: In two of his big league starts, Loaisiga needed 84 pitches to allow three runs in 3.2 innings against the Mariners and 92 pitches to allow three runs in four innings against the Braves. Also, he got hit pretty hard in September. I’m talking eleven runs (eight earned) in four appearances and 4.2 innings after those two innings in Oakland. That included a six-run, 1.1-inning disaster against the Twins on September 11th. Ouch.

To me, Loaisiga’s struggles looked more like a young and inexperienced pitcher learning the ropes than anything. I didn’t see a flaw in his stuff. He executed some good fastballs and breaking balls off the plate, pitches hitters probably chase in the minors, and big leaguers didn’t bite. Considering his relative lack of minor league experience, it is not at all surprising Loaisiga was inefficient and a little lost at times. He’ll get better with time.

The Future: Loaisiga turned 24 earlier this month and he made it clear this season he has big league potential. The stuff is there and the composure was there. He’s a little green, which is to be expected. I definitely think Loaisiga has the stuff and command to start long-term. I just have no idea whether he’ll stay healthy. The injury history is ugly. Shoulder and elbow problems. He even missed time with shoulder fatigue after being sent back down this summer.

The range of potential outcomes for 2019 Loaisiga seem awfully large. I wouldn’t be surprised if he blows out his arm and misses the season. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he throws 150-ish innings with a mid-3.00s ERA. The talent is there, unquestionably. Can he still healthy? Does all the missed time earlier in his career hold him back? Loaisiga has never pitched in Triple-A. Not one single pitch. I imagine he’ll spend most of next season there.

To me, Loaisiga seems like an excellent candidate for an opener. By that I mean a reliever starts the game, faces the top of the lineup, then turns it over to Loaisiga for four or five innings. That might be the best way to use him next year. Then, once he gets a little more comfortable and gains a little more experience, the Yankees will hopefully be able to turn him loose as a full-fledged starter. The little bit we saw this year was promising though. It was a remarkable rise from relative unknown to big leaguer for Johnny Lasagna in 2018.

The 2018-19 offseason is now underway, and over the next several months the Yankees will look to improve their big league roster while sticking to some sort of budget. Every team has a budget. Some teams have bigger budgets than others, but every team has a budget. This past season the Yankees’ budget was the $197M luxury tax threshold, and they stuck to it. They stayed under the threshold.

The luxury tax threshold jumps to $206M next year and the early indications are Hal Steinbrenner doesn’t want to exceed the threshold. “I don’t want to speak for (Hal Steinbrenner), but my general feeling from him and for us has been not wanting to line the pockets of others to let them utilize that excess against us,” said Brian Cashman recently, referring to the fact a portion of the money paid into luxury tax is distributed to other teams.

Cashman indicated he can go to Hal to get approval to exceed the threshold, and I sure hope that is the case, because there are some great free agents out there this winter. Either way, that $206M number is an obstacle of some sorts, and my estimate says the Yankees have $49.7M to spend underneath the threshold. That’s a lot! Not enough for a truly massive free agent spending spree, but it is a lot.

As the Yankees move through the winter they will have to navigate around Jacoby Ellsbury’s albatross contract. There are still two years and roughly $47M remaining on that deal, and Ellsbury missed the entire 2018 season with injuries. It’s unclear whether he’ll be healthy enough for Opening Day. This is also a guy who hit .261/.331/.372 (91 wRC+) in his last 1,500 plate appearances. Now he’s a 35-year-old speed guy coming off major hip surgery. Yuck.

Trading Ellsbury for value is pretty much a pipe dream at this point. The best case scenario is trading him and saving some money, and, even then, the Yankees will have to kick in a sweeter. Remember the Chase Headley trade? The Yankees attached Bryan Mitchell to Headley and saved $13M (!) against the luxury tax this year. Doing something similar with Ellsbury feels like it would take a minor miracle, at least something that leads to that much savings.

Rather than shoot for the moon, I think I’ve found a smaller bad contract for bad contract swap that could work for both teams. The details:

Yankees get: Wei-Yin Chen

Marlins get: Jacoby Ellsbury and an out of options arm

No, it is not the most exciting trade in the world, but it doesn’t have to be exciting to be worthwhile. Long story short, the Yankees and Marlins would move some money around, which would improve the luxury tax situation in the Bronx and send a younger pitcher to Miami. Let’s break this down.

1. How does the math work? The Yankees and Marlins are concerned about very different numbers. The Yankees are worried more about the luxury tax hit than the actual salary. They care about the actual salary too, don’t get me wrong, but the luxury tax has been driving all their decisions recently. The Marlins, meanwhile, are focused on actual salary. They’re not close to the luxury tax threshold. Luxury tax hits mean nothing to them.

Both Ellsbury and Chen have two years remaining on their contracts. Ellsbury is owed approximately $47M while Chen is owed $42M. Here’s the full breakdown:

Chen

Ellsbury

2019 Salary

$20M

$21.14M

2020 Salary

$22M

$21.14M

Option Buyout

N/A

$5M

Total Remaining

$42M

$47.28M

Contract

5 yrs, $80M

7 yrs, $153M

Contract AAV

$16M

$21.86M

A straight up trade would save the Yankees $5.86M against the luxury tax in 2019 and again in 2020 ($21.86M minus $16M). They wouldn’t save $13M like the Headley trade, but it’s something, and something is better than nothing. Ellsbury hasn’t played since last year and he’s just sitting on the roster, soaking up luxury tax payroll space. This at least clears some of that space.

Of course, a straight one-for-one trade means the Marlins would absorb $5.28M in real salary spread across 2019-20 ($47.28M minus $42M). Would they do that? Not out of the kindness of their hearts. That’s where the out of options arm comes in.

2. Why would the Marlins do this? The Marlins have two options. One, they could keep Chen and pay him that $42M the next two years. Chen is 33 years old, he has a 4.75 ERA (4.38 FIP) over the last three seasons, and he’s missed a bunch of time with lingering elbow trouble. He has no long-term value to a rebuilding team like Miami. He’s an innings guy they hope will stay healthy and pitch well enough to create some trade value, which is unlikely. That rarely happens.

Or two, they could make the trade outlined above and essentially buy a young pitcher. The Yankees have three out of options pitchers, meaning they can’t be sent to the minors next season without going through waivers: Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, and Domingo German. (Tommy Kahnle is out of options too, but I don’t think he’d interest the Marlins.) I’d rank those three pitchers German, Cessa, Cole in that order. Remember that $5.28M the Marlins would have to eat in the trade? How’s this work:

Marlins eat all $5.28M and get German.

Marlins eat half the $5.28M and get Cessa.

Marlins eat none of the $5.28M and get Cole.

The more money Miami eats, the better the pitcher they get in return. (Who the Marlins consider the best pitcher may not be who I consider the best pitcher, obviously.) If they eat the $5.28M difference in salary, they get a the best young pitcher in German and the Yankees get Chen with a $16M luxury tax hit. If the Yankees have to eat the entire $5.28M, the Marlins get the worst out of options arm in Cole and the Yankees get Chen with an $18.64M luxury tax hit — that’s the $5.28M cut in half and added to the $16M in 2019 and 2020 — which is still $3.22M in luxury tax savings in 2019 and 2020.

So it boils down to this: The Marlins can either keep Chen, who has no value to them, or make the trade and get a young enough arm who might help long-term. They’re buying a young arm, basically. Keep in mind Marlins executive Gary Denbo was the Yankees’ farm system head from 2014-17. He presumably has some insight into German and Cessa, which could help push things along. The $40-something-million is a sunk cost. The Marlins have to pay it to someone no matter that. They can either pay it to Ellsbury and get a younger pitcher in the process, or pay it to Chen.

(Scott Taetsch/Getty)

3. Why would the Yankees do this? For the luxury tax savings, obviously. The worst case scenario here is eating the $5.28M difference in salaries and giving up a spare out of options arm in Cole, who is probably not going to stick on the roster all offseason anyway, and saving $3.22M against the luxury tax payroll. The best case scenario is the shedding the full $5.28M difference in salaries and giving up a spare out of options arm in German, who also might not stick on the roster all offseason, and saving $5.86M against the luxury tax. Worthwhile either way.

What do the Yankees do with Chen? Beats me. They could simply release him. I’d recommend taking Chen into Spring Training and seeing whether he can help in some capacity, even as a mop-up guy, then making a decision at the end of camp. Again, the $40-something-million is a sunk cost. The Yankees have to pay it no matter what, and, right now, they’re paying it to Ellsbury to do nothing. Maybe they can instead pay it to Chen to soak up low-leverage innings. The primary objective here is the luxury tax savings. Anything Chen gives them is a bonus.

4. Why would Ellsbury agree to this? Ellsbury’s contract includes a full no-trade clause. Even if it didn’t, he’s been with the Yankees long enough now to pick up five-and-ten rights, which is kinda crazy. Why would Ellsbury go to the Marlins? There is only one good reason: Because they’ll release him. That’s the condition of the trade. The Marlins have to release Ellsbury immediately after the deal.

It sounds crazy, I know, but it is not unprecedented. Remember the big Dodgers-Braves salary shuffle deal that sent Matt Kemp back to Los Angeles last offseason? Adrian Gonzalez was in that trade and Atlanta had to release him as the condition to get him to waive his no-trade clause. Gonzalez got to keep every penny in his contract and pick his next team, who he could sign with at the pro-rated minimum. Once the Marlins release Ellsbury, he’d still get every penny, he’d get to pick his next team, and it wouldn’t cost anyone anything substantial to sign him. For Ellsbury, that would presumably be preferable to sticking with the Yankees, who don’t seem to have a place for him.

* * *

Over the next two years the Marlins owe Chen $42M and the Yankees owe Ellsbury $47.28M. There’s no getting out of that money. So, to make the best of a bad situation, the two teams could swap those contracts and figure out what to do with the $5.28M difference. Shouldn’t be hard. The Yankees would get a lower luxury tax hit and the Marlins would add a pitcher in his mid-20s with a chance to help long-term. And if he doesn’t, so be it. But at least they get to try.

A win-win? Well, I wouldn’t go that far. This is more like two teams making the best of a bad situation. They’re both stuck paying an unproductive veteran $40-something-million in real dollars the next two years. The Yankees and Marlins can either stick with their current situation, or work with each other to make things a little more palatable. To me, it seems better than staying with the status quo.

About two weeks ago the 2018 season came to an end for the Yankees, about four weeks too early. The Yankees were bounced in four games in the ALDS and the season feels like a disappointment. At least to me it does. Last year the Yankees went to Game Seven of the ALCS, and although they lost, it was still fun as hell. That was not really the case year.

Anyway, now that the season is over, it is time to go back and review my five bold predictions for the 2018 Yankees. Spoiler alert: I went 0-for-5. Last year I went 7-for-10 and that told me I didn’t go bold enough. I tried to rectify that this year and I guess it worked? Perhaps I’ll actually get one right next year. Time to review this year’s five bold predictions to see where I went wrong.

1. Hicks will lead the Yankees in WAR.

Among this year’s bold predictions, this is the one that was closest to coming true. For all the wrong reasons, of course. Aaron Hicks had a tremendous 2018 season but the only reasons he came close to leading the Yankees in WAR are Aaron Judge’s wrist injury and Luis Severino’s second half fade. An errant pitch broke Judge’s wrist in late-July and kept him out to mid-September. Severino was pretty bad after the All-Star break. That allowed Hicks to draw close.

I tend to stick with the two most popular version of WAR but there is a third out there. Here’s the top five Yankees in each version:

I am not a big fan of BP WARP but I figured I’d throw it in there anyway. Hicks being the third best player on the Yankees — and second best position player — this past season matches the eye test, I believe. He hit .248/.366/.467 (127 wRC+) with 27 homers, eleven steals, an excellent walk rate (15.5%), and a better than average strikeout rate (19.1%). Add in quality center field defense and you’ve got a +5 WAR player.

Unfortunately for me and my bold prediction (but fortunately for the Yankees and Yankees fans), Judge is a true talent +7 WAR player, so he still finished ahead of Hicks even with all that missed time. Severino finished ahead of Hicks as well thanks largely to his dominant first year. Great year for Hicks. Not great enough to lead the Yankees in WAR. (That’s a good thing!)

2. The Yankees will be the first team ever with four 40+ home run hitters.

Nope. The Yankees instead became the umpteenth team in history with zero 40+ home runs hitters. Stanton led the Yankees with 38 home runs. Gregorius, Hicks, Judge, and Miguel Andujar tied for second with 27 homers apiece. The Yankees did set a new single-season record with 267 homers this season. They did it without that one guy having a monster season though.

I specifically mentioned Judge, Stanton, Gary Sanchez, and Greg Bird as the 40-homer hitters in the bold predictions post. Here’s what happened:

Bird: Hurt (again) and awful. He played in 82 games and hit only eleven homers.

Judge: Probably would’ve hit 40 homers if not for the wrist injury. Twenty-seven homers in 112 games is a 39-homer pace, and remember, he stunk when he first returned from the disabled list.

Sanchez: Missed two months with groin injuries and, even when healthy, he wasn’t good.

Stanton: Hit 38 homers. Just short of 40. He was really good this year.

The Judge and Sanchez injuries were unfortunate. It happens. There are two big reasons this bold prediction was derailed. One, Sanchez was just terrible. Who saw that coming? My dude missed most of April and still hit .278/.345/.531 (129 wRC+) with 33 homers last year. Rather than build on that, Gary took a massive step back. And two, I foolishly believed this would be the year Bird stayed healthy. Never again.

3. The Yankees will have four starters each make 30+ starts.

Nope. The Yankees had one starter make 30 starts this season (Severino made 32). CC Sabathia made 29 starts and would’ve made 30+ had he not missed two weeks with a hip issue in April or eleven days with knee trouble in August. Masahiro Tanaka made only 27 starts because he managed to strain both hamstrings at the same time while running the bases in June. Good grief. That sent him to the sidelines for a month.

Only one other Yankee made as many as 23 starts this season. That Yankee: Sonny Gray. Gray made 23 starts and had to be pulled from the rotation because he was so awful. I didn’t expect that to happen. Opening Day fifth starter Jordan Montgomery made only six starts before his elbow gave out and he needed Tommy John surgery. Know who finished fifth on the 2018 Yankees in starts? Domingo German with 14. Yeesh.

4. Cessa emerges as the next great Yankees reliever.

I called this with Chad Green last year and it worked beautifully. I tried it again this year with the other half of the Justin Wilson trade and it didn’t work out so well. I guess Jonathan Holder was this year’s breakout reliever? Yeah, has to be. Anyway, here was my logic behind the Cessa prediction:

There are three reasons I believe Cessa can succeed as a short reliever. One, he has plenty of velocity. Last season he averaged 95.4 mph and topped out at 99.5 mph with the fastball, even as a starter. Two, his slider misses plenty of bats. It’s true. Last year he threw his slider a touch more than 30% of the time and:

Swing-and-miss rate: 21.4% (MLB average for sliders: 16.9%)

Whiffs-per-swing rate: 43.2% (MLB average for sliders: 35.2%)

Cessa also throws a curveball and a changeup, but with a move into short relief, he can forget about those pitches and work exclusively with an upper-90s fastball and a swing-and-miss slider. That’s similar to what Green did, right? He moved to the bullpen, shelved his subpar secondary pitches, and leaned on his best offering, which happens to be his fastball. Cessa with something like a 55/45 fastball/slider split could be real good.

Cessa never really got a look as short reliever this year. He made two one-inning relief appearances in April, during which he struck out three of the six batters he faced, otherwise he was used as a spot starter and swingman. Cessa made five spot starts and nine relief appearances of at least two innings. The Yankees never bothered to give him a look as a one-inning “air it out reliever” aside from those two appearances in April.

In 44.2 total innings this past season Cessa finished with a 5.24 ERA (3.74 FIP) and good enough strikeout (20.0%) and walk (6.7%) rates. The fastball velocity was still good (95.0 mph average and 97.9 mph max) and the slider still missed bats (18.6% swings-and-misses and 38.3% whiffs-per-swing). Shrug. Cessa will be out of minor league options next year, and if he doesn’t stick with the Yankees, I wouldn’t be surprised if he turns into a nice one-inning reliever elsewhere. The tools are there. He seems miscast as a starter but the Yankees have stuck with him in that role.

5. Medina finishes the season as a top 50 prospect.

This was my most “out there” bold prediction. It’s not often a 19-year-old pitcher jumps into the top half of a global top 100 list. Medina has dynamite stuff. He’s upper-90s with his fastball and he’s hit triple digits several times, his curveball is a hammer, and his changeup is sneaky good as well. I didn’t pick him out of the hat. Medina has the stuff to develop into a top 50 prospect. I aggressively said it would happen this year. I was wrong.

In 36 innings for the rookie level Pulaski Yankees, Medina pitched to a 6.25 ERA (6.46 FIP) with 25.5% strikeouts and 25.0% walks. That’s 47 strikeouts and 46 walks in 36 innings. Among the 3,014 pitchers to throw at least 30 innings in the minors this season, Medina had the sixth highest walk rate and 83rd lowest K-BB%. Medina also hit two batters and uncorked 12 wild pitches in those 36 innings. Yikes.

Even with that statistically terrible season Medina remains a very good prospect because he is only 19 and because you can’t teach his stuff. It’s electric. Baseball America (subs. req’d) recently ranked Medina as the 13th best prospect in the Appalachian League. A snippet of their scouting report:

What keeps scouts interested with Medina is a fastball that sits in the 95-96 mph range and touches 100, with impressive plane and sink. He’s also got a 60-grade curveball and a changeup that could become a third plus pitch as well. He’s still growing into a 6-foot-1, 175 pound frame, Medina has a good arm action but simply struggles to repeat his delivery with any kind of consistency and is just an average athlete.

This failed bold prediction is nothing more than a bet on a talented yet unpolished 19-year-old pitching prospect gone wrong. It happens. Medina definitely has a little Dellin Betances in him and by that I mean 19-year-old Dellin Betances. Betances was a starter with drool-worthy stuff at the same age and it wasn’t until his age 26 season that he figured it out for good and stuck in the big leagues. Medina is a similar long-term project. He may one day be a top 50 prospect, but it won’t be today.

The Wild Card Game is its own postseason round. The Yankees and A’s will set a 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game, then whichever team advances will be able to set a new 25-man roster for the ALDS. Because of that, we’ve seen some funky wildcard rosters in recent years. The Yankees carried only nine pitchers on their 2015 Wild Card Game roster. Last year they carried ten. That means a great big bench.

So, with the Wild Card Game now only six days away, this is as good a time as any to try to piece together the 25-man roster the Yankees will carry next Wednesday. It’s a bummer the Yankees are going to finish with 100-ish wins and have to play in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but hey, if you don’t like it, win more games. Let’s dig into the potential Wild Card Game roster.

The Locks

Might as well start here. The way I see it, the Yankees have 17 players who are absolute locks for the Wild Card Game roster right now. The 17:

I was initially on the fence about Hechavarria, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized he’s going to make the Wild Card Game roster. Worst case scenario is he serves as Andujar’s defensive replacement. The rest is pretty straightforward though, right? Right. We still have eight roster spots to fill, so let’s get to it.

Locks, If Healthy

Didi Gregorius is out with torn cartilage in his right wrist and he could play in games before the end of the season. He got the okay to resume baseball activities yesterday, so that’s good. If he’s able to play this weekend and has no problems, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster. If not, it opens up the possibility for Ronald Torreyes to make the roster. The Gregorius/Torreyes spot is our 18th player.

Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, has a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day. He too could play before the regular season ends, and, if that happens, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster as well. If Hicks can’t play in the Wild Card Game, I think Tyler Wade makes it instead. Wade can play the outfield, if necessary, but more importantly he can run. No Hicks on the roster means Gardner is in center field rather than on the bench as a pinch-running option. With Hicks out, Wade becomes the pinch-runner. The Hicks/Wade spot is our 19th player.

The Starting Pitcher(s)

We still don’t know who will start the Wild Card Game. Aaron Boone has indicated the decision could come soon and he’s made it pretty clear it’ll be either J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, or Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees aren’t going to do a straight bullpen game. Two weeks ago RAB readers wanted Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees want it to be Severino. Happ is a perfectly fine candidate as well.

At the moment Happ is lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest and Tanaka with two extra days of rest. Severino would be on three extra days of rest, though he could wind up starting Game 162 should the Yankees need to win that game to clinch homefield advantage. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. Based on the way things are set up now, all three guys will be available to start the Wild Card Game. That’s not an accident. The Yankees made sure they had options.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Instead of focusing on names, let’s focus on roster spots. The Yankees carried three starting pitchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Tanaka, Ivan Nova) and three starting pitchers on the 2017 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia). I expect them to carry three starting pitchers again this year. That gives the Yankees:

It is entirely possible Happ, Severino, and Tanaka will all be on the Wild Card Game roster even though only one guy is starting the game. Or it’s possible Happ and Severino are on the roster with Lance Lynn, who has bullpen experience, replacing Tanaka. I don’t think the Yankees would carry Sabathia as a reliever at this point, but it can’t be ruled out. Gray? Eh. Seems like a worst case scenario.

I suspect that, unless he has to start Game 162 on Sunday, Severino will be on the Wild Card Game roster. Even if he doesn’t start the Wild Card Game, he could be another bullpen option. Heck, he might be on the roster even if he starts Game 162. The Wild Card Game would be Severino’s throw day and he could give you an inning or two out of the bullpen. Yeah, one way or the other, I think Severino’s on the roster. He’s our 20th player.

My hunch is both Happ and Tanaka will be on the roster as well. I was thinking maybe the Yankees would carry Lynn instead of one of those two because he has bullpen experience, but I keep going back to Brian Cashman saying it is “all hands on deck for that one game,” and Happ and Tanaka are objectively better than Lynn. The bullpen experience is nice. I don’t think it trumps effectiveness. Happ and Tanaka are the 21st and 22nd players (and eighth and ninth pitchers) on our roster.

The Last Bullpen Spot

Whoever starts the Wild Card Game, that guy will be on a very short leash. It could devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly. For both teams. Because of that, I think the Yankees will carry ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster like last season, rather than nine like in 2015. I wouldn’t rule out an 11th pitcher, honestly. I’m going to stick with ten though. That seems like plenty for a one-game scenario.

With Happ, Severino, and Tanaka joining the six late-game relievers, we are left with eleven candidates for the final pitching spot: Gray, Lynn, Sabathia, Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley. I think we can rule out Adams, German, Loaisiga, and Sheffield right now. They would’ve gotten a longer look this month if they were Wild Card Game candidates.

Tarpley has gotten some run lately as a left-on-left guy and the other night Boone told Erik Boland that Tarpley has put himself “in the conversation” for the Wild Card Game roster. Since his ugly big league debut, Tarpley has thrown 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and lefties are 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts against him. In the minors this year Tarpley held left-handed batters to a .141/.213/.183 line with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Really good!

There is one reason to carry Tarpley on the Wild Card Game roster: Matt Olson. Oakland’s lefty swinging first baseman went into last night’s game hitting .247/.338/.496 (128 wRC+) against righties and .251/.329/.369 (96 wRC+) against lefties. He’s someone you can LOOGY. That said, if you bring in a lefty for Olson, A’s manager Bob Melvin will counter with righty swinging Mark Canha, who’s hitting .274/.331/.596 (148 wRC+) against southpaws. Melvin’s been doing it all year.

In a high-leverage situation — is there such a thing as a low-leverage situation in a game as important as the Wild Card Game? — I’d rather have one of the regular late-inning relievers facing Olson than Tarpley facing Canha. All the late-inning guys have good numbers against lefties. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Tarpley faces Olson/Canha in the middle (or late) innings rather than one of the usual late-inning guys. Worrying about the platoon matchup there seems like paralysis by analysis. Overthinking it.

I’m tossing Tarpley into the maybe pile right now. A good series against Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers this weekend would really help his cause. For our purposes, we’re down to Cessa, Cole, Gray, Kahnle, Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley for the final bullpen spot. Hard pass on Gray and Cole. They’ve pitched too poorly for too long. Can’t see it being Cessa either. Kahnle was excellent in the Wild Card Game (and postseason) last year …

… but that was 2017 Tommy Kahnle. 2018 Kahnle is not 2017 Kahnle. 2017 Kahnle would be on the Wild Card Game roster no questions asked. 2018 Tommy Kahnle? Nah. So we’re left with Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley. So maybe it will be Tarpley? Either way, we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen, someone who won’t pitch in the Wild Card Game unless things go really crazy. I’d take Lynn. Tarpley has a shot. Whoever it is, this is our tenth pitcher and 23rd player on the roster.

The Rest of the Bench

A ten-man pitching staff means a six-man bench. Romine gets one bench spot. (No, Romine shouldn’t start the Wild Card Game.) Another spot goes to Wade (Hicks out) or Gardner (Hicks in). If Gregorius plays, both Hechavarria and Walker are on the bench. If Gregorius does not play, either Hechavarria or Walker is in the starting lineup and the other is on the bench. Depending on Didi, either three or four bench spots are already claimed. There are four candidates for the remaining bench spots. The four and their potential roles:

Greg Bird: Lefty bench bat

Kyle Higashioka: Third catcher

Ronald Torreyes (if Gregorius is in): Utility infielder

Tyler Wade (if Hicks is in): Utility guy and speedster

The big name bench candidate is Bird. We know Voit is starting at first base in the Wild Card Game, even against a right-handed pitcher. He’s been too good and Bird’s been too bad. The question is this: What would Bird provide the Yankees? A backup first baseman and a lefty bench bat who could take aim at the short porch? Sure. But Walker could do that too, and Bird offers zero defensive versatility.

Then again, if Gregorius is unable to play in the Wild Card Game, Walker would presumably start at second base — it would be either Gleyber at short and Walker at second, or Hechavarria at short and Gleyber at second — thus leaving the Yankees without a backup first baseman/lefty bat on the bench. Given his performance, leaving Bird off the Wild Card Game roster would be completely justifiable. I still think he’ll be on. The Yankees love him and they have the spare bench spots. I hereby declare Bird our 24th player.

Don’t dismiss Higashioka as a Wild Card Game roster candidate. His presence would allow the Yankees to pinch-run for Sanchez without worrying about Romine potentially getting hurt. Or they could pinch-hit for Sanchez in a big spot. I wouldn’t do it and I don’t think the Yankees would, but it would be an option. The Yankees only had two catchers on the roster last year because Sanchez was the man and he wasn’t coming out of the game. They did carry three catchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster though (Sanchez, Brian McCann, John Ryan Murphy).

Right now we have a 24-man roster that includes either Gregorius or Torreyes, and either Hicks or Wade. This is starting to get confusing. Let’s recap everything. This is how I think the bench and 25-man Wild Card Game roster shakes out:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Starters

Relievers

Sanchez

Andujar

Gardner

Happ

Betances

Romine

Bird

Judge

Severino

Britton

Hechavarria

McCutchen

Tanaka

Chapman

Torres

Stanton

Green

Voit

Hicks/Wade

Holder

Walker

Robertson

Didi/Toe

Lynn/Tarpley

Those are 24 roster spots. Ten pitchers and 14 position players. The Gregorius and Hicks injuries are the x-factors. There are three scenarios here with regards to the 25th roster spot:

Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt: Torreyes and Wade both make it, and the Yankees carry either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher.

Only one of Gregorius or Hicks is healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, Torreyes and Wade both make it.

Gregorius and Hicks are both healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, only one of Torreyes or Wade makes it.

If both Gregorius and Hicks are healthy — and we all hope that is the case — I think Wade makes the Wild Card Game roster over Torreyes because he’s more versatile and his speed could really come in handy in a late-inning pinch-running situation. If both Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt, the Yankees are kinda stuck. It’s either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher at that point.

The position player side of the Wild Card Game roster is going to depend on the health of Gregorius and Hicks. On the pitching side, the Yankees can pick and choose who they want. We know the six end-game relievers will be there. The Yankees are likely to carry three starters, no matter who they end up being. Do they carry Tarpley? That might be the most interesting Wild Card Game roster question.

September 1st has arrived and that means rosters have expanded. Teams can carry up to 40 players through the end of the season rather than the usual 25. Most teams will wind up carrying 30-35 players this month. Every team will have extra relievers and bench players starting today.

The Yankees announced a series of call-ups and roster moves today. A recap:

Andrew McCutchen and Adeiny Hechavarria added to the active roster.

Gary Sanchez activated off the 10-day DL.

Tyler Wade and Luis Cessa recalled from Triple-A Scranton.

Stephen Tarpley added to 40-man roster and promoted to MLB.

Andrew McCutchen! The Yankees acquired McCutchen from the Giants yesterday and he spent the day traveling to New York. He wasn’t put on the active roster yesterday because there was no reason to do so. He wasn’t going to be available and there’s no sense in playing with a 24-man roster. McCutchen is in today’s lineup. Hooray. I’m not sure whether Hechavarria, who came over in a trade late last night, is with the team yet. No harm in adding him to the roster now that rosters have expanded though.

The big news is Sanchez returning from the disabled list. For all intents and purposes, he’s missed the last two months with a groin injury. He went on the disabled list June 25th, returned July 19th, played three games, then returned to the disabled list after reaggravating the groin injury. All told, Gary has missed 54 games with the groin injury and reaggravation of the groin injury.

While Sanchez was out the Austin Romine/Kyle Higashioka catching tandem hit .201/.258/.350 in 231 plate appearances and opponents went 43-for-56 (77%) stealing bases. The overall team ERA also went from 3.43 to 3.72 during Sanchez’s absence. It has not been pretty behind the plate the last few weeks. I’m looking forward to Gary being back and him getting back to being the player he was last year.

The other big news today is Tarpley’s call-up. The left-hander came over as one of the two players to be named later in the Ivan Nova trade with the Pirates, and thanks to a new pitch and a new role, he posted a 1.94 ERA (3.23 FIP) with 25.6% strikeouts, 9.4% walks, and 68.1% grounders in 69.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this year. That 68.1% ground ball rate is the highest among the 1,011 minor leagues with at least 65 innings pitched in 2018.

Tarpley will be making his big league debut, and, like most first time September call-ups, I expect him to work in mop-up duty, at least at first. He held left-handed batters to a .148/.219/.193 batting line in the minors this year and could always get the call in low-to-mid-leverage left-on-left spots. Phil Coke quickly worked his way into the Circle of Trust™ in September 2008. Maybe Tarpley can do the same in September 2018. That’d be cool.

The Yankees have not yet announced a 40-man roster move for Tarpley. I wonder if it’ll be Shane Robinson now that McCutchen is with the team and Wade, who can also play the outfield, has been added to the roster. The Yankees might be waiting to make sure no one gets hurt during batting practice today before announcing Robinson has been designated for assignment, assuming he is the move. That’s a fairly common practice.

Update: Yep, Robinson has been designated for assignment, the Yankees announced. That’s the 40-man move for Tarpley.

Cessa and Wade have been up and down a bunch this season and are just extra bodies now that rosters have expanded. Wade is a speedy utility guy who can play pretty much anywhere. With Quintin Berry not being called up (not yet, anyway), I assume Wade takes over as the designated pinch-runner. Cessa is stretched out as a long man, so now the Yankees have him and Sonny Gray available for long relief work for whenever things go haywire.

Notably absent among today’s call-ups: Justus Sheffield. Aaron Boone said yesterday Sheffield would not be called up today, but could be later this month. I think it’ll happen fairly soon. Sheffield moved to the Triple-A bullpen last week in preparation for a call-up, but he missed a few games with an illness earlier this week, and fell behind a bit. I expect him to come up after one or two more relief appearances with the RailRiders.

As always, more call-ups will take place throughout September. Sheffield will be up at some point and I assume Chance Adams will as well. Probably once Triple-A Scranton’s season ends, which could be as soon as Monday. Berry is another call-up candidate. Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga will likely return later this month, plus Aroldis Chapman and Didi Gregorius will eventually be activated off the disabled list, hopefully soon.

After struggling against the Orioles earlier this season, this weekend has gone about as well as we could’ve hoped. The Yankees have three wins since Friday night and tonight they’re going for the four-game sweep. With the Red Sox stumbling a bit — they were swept by the Rays this weekend and have lost six of their last eight games — the top of the AL East standings currently look like this:

Red Sox: 90-42

Yankees: 82-47 (6.5 GB)

The Yankees have gained four games in the standings in the last seven days and a win tonight means they’ll wake up tomorrow morning five games back in the loss column. Five back with six head-to-head games remaining. Still a long climb ahead. A very long climb. But suddenly that climb doesn’t seem as improbable as it did even a week ago. Go beat the Orioles and continue to make things interesting. Here are tonight’s lineups:

I thought for sure Gardner would sit tonight after playing both ends of the doubleheader yesterday. Shows what I know. Anyway, it’s another hot and humid day in Baltimore. Probably not the most comfortable night to sit in the stands. At least there’s no rain in the forecast. Tonight’s game will begin at 8:05pm ET and it’ll be on ESPN as the Sunday Night Baseball game. Why? I have no idea. Whatever. Enjoy the game.

Roster Move: As required, 26th man Luis Cessa was sent back to Triple-A following yesterday’s doubleheader. Unless he replaces someone who goes on the disabled list, Cessa has to stay in the minors ten days, which means the earliest he can come back up is Wednesday, September 5th. He can’t come back this coming Saturday, the first day rosters expand.

Injury Updates: Aaron Boone said he is “optimistic” both Gary Sanchez (groin) and Didi Gregorius (heel) will return in time for the upcoming West Coast trip. The Yankees play three games in Oakland and three games in Seattle starting September 3rd … Aaron Judge (wrist) still isn’t ready to swing a bat.