Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos look like the clear-cut AFC favorite they were supposed to be, but we'll know in a three-week stretch from mid-November to early-December if anybody else has a chance. That's when they have a Week 12 game at New England sandwiched between Week 11 and 13 matchups with Kansas City.

If you haven't noticed, Tom Brady's Patriots and Alex Smith's Chiefs are the only other two undefeated teams left in the conference. Until then, those teams will try to keep building momentum as they try to keep up with Denver's torrid pace.

Why they're here: They showed the championship fight of a Super Bowl favorite with their rally from 20-3 down in Houston to a stunning 23-20 victory. They can beat teams with both big blowouts and big comebacks.

How they move down: Get off to another slow start on the road. They are well out of their time zone in Indianapolis this week and may have some hangover from their overtime work against the Texans.

What's next: at Colts, where Russell Wilson gets to duel with Andrew Luck for the first time.

Why they're here: They're averaging almost 45 points per game, and it's been a lot more than Peyton Manning. Their running game, special teams and defense are contributing a load to the scoring. They keep attacking, and no opponent has had enough to attack back.

How they move up: As much as they've impressed, they can still improve defensively. They're a Seattle stumble away from taking No. 1.

How they move down: Get complacent, but with Manning playing mistake-free, some opponent will need to force the issue.

What's next: at Cowboys, in what might be an old west shootout with Tony Romo.

Last week: 6Why they're here: The Niners looked more like the reigning NFC champs with their dismantling of the Rams, a team they couldn't beat last season. Now they've had extra time to heal up, head back home and look to roll back above .500.

How they move up: Stick with their true identity under Jim Harbaugh. Power running and hard-hitting defense are critical to their success before Colin Kaepernick does anything.

How they move down: The defense lets up after a much-needed strong performance in St. Louis.

Why they're here: Andy Reid has now gone 3-for-3 against the NFC East as part of his new team's perfect start. The formula is the same, a confident Alex Smith, a dynamic Jamaal Charles and a dominant defense.

How they move up: Just keep winning and impressing. They're on the cusp of the top five now, and if they can rout some more down opponents, watch out.

How they move down: More first-half struggles. They don't want to be in comeback mode in the second half.

What's next: at Tennessee, against another early surprise AFC team.

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Green Bay Packers (1-2)

Last week: 10

Why they're here: The Packers took a couple of dents with their tough early schedule with losses to San Francisco and Cincinnati. So Week 4 was a well-timed bye, a chance to regroup before they begin NFC North play.

How they move up: Start playing better defense and turn in complete winning performances against Detroit and Baltimore the next two weeks.

How they move down: Lose their edge at Lambeau and continue their struggle on the road in Week 6.

What's next: vs. Lions, the current first-place team in the division.

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Chicago Bears (3-1)

Last week: 5

Why they're here: The Bears looked like everything was working through their first three games, and then the old shaky Jay Cutler returned in Detroit. Without the big takeaways either, it also exposed their uncharacteristic defensive problems in giving up big plays.

How they move up: Rebound in two home interdivision games with one red-hot NFC team (Saints) and one ice-cold one (Giants).

How they move down: Cutler goes back to being the Cutler that we thought Marc Trestman and a revamped line had caused to change. And if they can't get to other quarterbacks.

Why they're here: The Lions make the worthy leap after bouncing the Bears and jumping right into another monumental division matchup with the Packers at Lambeau. Reggie Bush and the running game, buoyed by great defensive play up front, has been the story.

How they move up: Before we go back to thinking they are the same old Lions, they need a breakthrough in Week 5 at Green Bay before a tougher-than-it-looks matchup at Cleveland.

How they move down: Look like the same old Lions, the ones who lost at Arizona.

What's next: at Packers, where Matt Stafford must play better vs. Aaron Rodgers.

Why they're here: The Colts had the closest thing to a bingo free space with a trip to Jacksonville, a win that kept them in a tie for first in the AFC South with Tennessee.

How they move up: It is right in front of Andrew Luck and friends: An opportunity to beat mighty Seattle at home, which the division rival Texans just couldn't do.
How they move down: It's acceptable if they lose to the Seahawks, but getting pushed around physically like they did in the Miami game would be a big blow to their new pounding style.

What's next: vs. Seahawks, as Luck gets a chance to prove he's the best QB of the 2012 class.

Why they're here: The Texans had a couple big comebacks in their first two games, then a blowout loss, and a blown lead. It's been an emotional roller-coaster for Matt Schaub, and there is frustration for J.J. Watt and the defense, too.
How they move up: There's no need to panic, there's plenty of time left, and no one will run away with the AFC South. But they need to get going like division champs soon.
How they move down: They don't handle either West or Midwest well, with San Francisco, St. Louis and Kansas City on the slate before a bye.

What's next: at 49ers, where Schaub can expect to feel more heat from the Niners' D.

Why they're here: The Ravens are still finding their way through an offense in transition, and the running game, line and receiving corps all have some issues. Of course, trumping all of that was quarterback Joe Flacco throwing five interceptions in the loss at Buffalo.

How they move up: Lean a little more on the defense and running game to get more settled, and they need to find answers quickly with Miami and Green Bay around the corner.

How they move down: Stay a little too pass happy even when the injuries -- beyond a healthy, speedy, Torrey Smith -- are mounting.

What's next: at Dolphins, a defense that can give their offense more problems.

Why they're here: It's hard to figure out the Bengals. They looked great at home vs. Pittsburgh and Green Bay, and then crashed on the road vs. Chicago and Cleveland. They have been more of an inconsistent young bunch than steady contender.

How they move up: They're home again against a marquee opponent, New England. It would be nice if they played up to a top level against an AFC powerhouse and could keep up that momentum.

How they move down: If they keep having head-scratching offensive struggles, despite having players such as A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard flanking Andy Dalton.

What's next: vs. Patriots, when we'll learn just how good they can really be.

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Miami Dolphins (3-1)

Last week: 13

Why they're here: The Dolphins rolled out to wins over Cleveland, Indianapolis and Atlanta, but ran into an offensive juggernaut in crazy loud New Orleans.

How they move up: Settle down, and don't let the Saints' performance dwell, which can be tendency for a younger team off a short week.

How they move down: Keep letting Ryan Tannehill get rocked in and out of the pocket. The pass protection remains atrocious, especially at the tackles.

What's next: vs. Ravens, a good home test against the seasoned Super Bowl champions.

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Tennessee Titans (3-1)

Last week: 17

Why they're here: Jake Locker sparked the offense, and Gregg Williams has the defense stomping opponents again in his second stint with the team. Unfortunately, they'll need to go without Locker just as he was playing well.

How they move up: Hope for the best with Ryan Fitzpatrick filling in and hope that slumping Chris Johnson can pick up the offensive slack on the ground.

How they move down: Fitzpatrick tries to do too much against the defenses of Kansas City, Seattle and San Francisco the next three weeks, and Johnson doesn't do enough.

Last week: 12Why they're here: The Cowboys looked great against the NFC at home, and suffered two frustrating loss to the AFC West on the road. There are good signs of improvement, but the result is just a .500 record and an early slim lead in a weak NFC East.
How they move up: Show us more consistency and the better ability to win close games. Huge upset potential is looming against Denver.

How they move down: Keep making critical mistakes and giveaways in crucial times. So far, that's been running back Lance Dunbar and rookie wide receiver Terrance Williams.
What's next: vs. Broncos, as they try to rope in and outscore Peyton Manning in Big D.

Why they're here: Injuries have decimated their defense, and it's putting a lot of pressure on the offense to execute at high level, of which they have fallen a little short.

How they move up: A lot of players won't heal anytime soon, so they need to keep pushing the issue with their difference makers around Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez.

How they move down: They are in danger of a shocking freefall, and need to get something positive going before a Week 6 bye.

What's next: vs. Jets, a Monday night home game set to get them back on track.

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Cleveland Browns (2-2)

Last week: 28

Why they're here: The Browns moved on without Trent Richardson and with Brian Hoyer, and the first thing they do is get back to .500 with impressive victories over Minnesota and Cincinnati.
How they move up: Their schedule has given them two more home games after the Bengals, both winnable (Buffalo, Detroit). In the current AFC North mess, watch out if they get into sole first place early.
How they move down: The Browns have a strong defense, but their offense is getting kind of predictable with Hoyer. They need to keep pushing the right buttons to stay head of fellow middling competition.

Why they're here: So rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel has hung in there, and so has a defense that's been depleted in the secondary. They've been close in every game, and now have a win over the Super Bowl champion Ravens to show for it.

How they move up: They don't have to travel much for Thursday night, and figure to be in another nip-and-tuck defensive-minded game with Cleveland.

How they move down: Manuel has more growing pains as opponents are better prepared for his skills.

Why they're here: The Panthers enjoyed a bye after their shutout home win over the Giants, and there's some hope, with a favorable schedule ahead, they can work back into the NFC wild-card picture.

How they move up: There's a favorable trip to Arizona, back where Cam Newton made his dazzling NFL debut as a rookie in 2011. The key is getting him more comfortable as a passer and runner.

How they move down: They can't keep up their momentum in the traditional running game to help Newton.

What's next: at Cardinals, where they will try to avoid the classic desert trap.

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-3)

Last week: 18

Why they're here: The Eagles flew out of the gate in Week 1, but opponents have caught up to them and lapped them, the latest being the real most exciting offense in the NFL, Denver.

How they move up: The schedule is set up to get them right back to .500, as they play two teams with even worse records than them, the 0-4 Giants and the 0-4 Buccaneers.
How they move down: They pull off the gas now. They're built to go fast and furious under Chip Kelly, and as the frustration builds, it's the worst time to doubt their abilities and play more tentative offense.

What's next: at Giants, when another NFC East team will be further sunk.

Why they're here: The Redskins spotted Oakland a 14-0 lead in Week 3, but came back strong with much improved defense and steadier offensive play for the rest of the game.

How they move up: With every week, they hope Robert Griffin III gets a little better. That's what makes a Week 5 bye so beneficial.

How they move down: The Eagles and Cowboys just might fall this week, and that will keep the Redskins from losing any ground in their division.

What's next: at Cowboys, in Week 6.

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St. Louis Rams (1-3)

Last week: 20

Why they're here: The Rams have looked awful since their season-opening win over Arizona, as the Falcons, Cowboys and 49ers have all lit up their defense. Now Sam Bradford is slumping again.
How they move up: They need to find a semblance of the running game, and play with more force and attitude defensively, which we saw all of last season.

How they move down: Keep having mental lapses and physical mistakes at a high level.

What's next: vs. Jaguars, and team that should provide a home confidence booster.

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Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Last week: 26Why they're here: It was another ugly offensive performance, but the Buccaneers were worse on that side of the ball, allowing the Cardinals to rally and escape with a second win.
How they move up: They need Carson Palmer playing much better, like he did down the stretch in Tampa. So far, the Bruce Arians' passing offense isn't living up to its billing.

How they move down: If they don't find a spark for Palmer in the running game, and that means turning to Andre Ellington for a bigger role sooner rather than later.

What's next: vs. Panthers, as their stout run defense will try to slow down a good running team.

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New York Jets (2-2)

Last week: 23

Why they're here: The Jets are pretty much like the Bills. Inconsistent rookie quarterback Geno Smith is paired with a better defense when Smith isn't turning over the ball at an alarming rate.

How they move up: Even with the wide receiver injuries, they need to let Smith loose and take their chances. There's no point even thinking about a QB change, and there's nothing to lose with taking the reins of Smith.
How they move down: If they don't stick by Smith and let rumblings of trying Matt Simms get into his head.
What's next: at Falcons, where their pass defense will be stretched to the limit.

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Minnesota Vikings (1-3)

Last week: 29

Why they're here: The Vikings slide up a couple of spots thanks to breaking through their first win in London, holding off the winless Steelers. Sure, Matt Cassel was their quarterback, but the running game and run after catch had a lot more to do with it.

How they move up: Figure out whether Cassel or Christian Ponder (ribs) is their quarterback for good, and stick with it. The controversy is even worse than the potential of either player in their offense.

How they move down: They're off, so they'll hope a couple of teams behind them don't win.

What's next: vs. Panthers, in Week 6.

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New York Giants (0-4)

Last week: 22

Why they're here: Another week, another dismal performance in which they were overwhelmed up front offensively and ripped on the back end defensively. This time, it was major problems against a strong Kansas City team on the road.
How they move up: Somehow piece together enough respectable play to get a win. They're the Giants. They need to live up to the Big Blue name, now.

How they move down: More offensive line issues and if they don't clean up their sloppiness with turnovers and special teams. Can Tom Coughlin get any redder?

What's next: vs. Eagles, a reeling team against which they can rebound big.

Last week: 24Why they're here: The Steelers stunk it up again with turnovers and a lack of impact defensive plays in London, with Ben Roethlisberger's big passes downfield providing a little cosmetic coverup.

How they move up: Mike Tomlin, Roethlisberger and the rest of the team need to find some answers during the bye. They have to, right, because they have had none.

How they move down: If Roethlisberger's hits catch up with him again during a key recovery week.

Why they're here: The Raiders limped through a game (see Terrelle Pryor out, Darren McFadden and Marcel Reece hurting) despite a chance to knock off Washington. They only have a win over Jacksonville to show for better-than-record efforts.

How they move up: Oakland needs the versatility Pryor provides over Matt Flynn, and maybe Rashad Jennings can spark their running game a bit.

How they move down: Fall in tough adjusted home game (8:35 p.m. PT) on Sunday night.

What's next: vs. Chargers, with last place in the strong AFC West on the line.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4)

Last week: 31

Why they're here: They changed quarterbacks from Josh Freeman to Mike Glennon, but the results were the same: A close loss (vs. Arizona) where the offense did nothing for most of the game.

How they move up: It will be difficult as long as their QB and running back (looking at you, underachieving Doug Martin) sputter.

How they move down: If Greg Schiano loses it more than he already has, which is possible.