Rushing the QBs

7:51 p.m. EST, April 25, 2012|By Sam Farmer, Tribune Newspapers

NEW YORK — We won't get fooled again.

Unlike a year ago, when an early run on quarterbacks caught most NFL draft prognosticators flat-footed, most have now resigned themselves to the notion that the QB count might reach four before Thursday's first round is done.

"Because the salary cap is now friendly in the first round toward these quarterbacks, and because everyone is in a feeding frenzy to get one, guys' values are getting pushed up," NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock said.

Of course, much of a young quarterback's success depends on where he's drafted and the supporting cast that surrounds him. Last year, for instance, Texas Christian's Andy Dalton slipped into the second round — even past the quarterback-needy Seahawks at 25 — before being taken by the Bengals with the third pick of the second round. Dalton wound up being the find of the draft, leading the Bengals to the playoffs.

Fourteen of the Week 1 starting quarterbacks last season were drafted after the first round. However, most of the elite quarterbacks are snapped up quickly.

"With quarterbacks, you can't bank on drafting sleepers. You'll end up getting fired."

After Luck and Griffin are off the board, there isn't likely to be a lot of waiting around for the next two quarterbacks, even if some evaluators believe there should be.

Much as he likes Tannehill's work ethic and potential, Mayock said he doesn't belong in the top 10 picks, and maybe not the top 20, yet he could go quickly — perhaps to the Browns at four, or the Dolphins at eight. Mayock rates Weeden as a second-rounder, yet knows that he too might go much earlier.

After an initial surge, there could be a lull in the quarterback craziness. Mayock projects both Michigan State's Kirk Cousins and Arizona State's Brock Osweiler as third-rounders.

Tannehill is among the record 26 prospects who will attend the draft and watch from the green room at Radio City Music Hall. For the second consecutive year, the first round will be broadcast in prime time, starting at 7 p.m. The second and third rounds will take place Friday, starting at 6 p.m. The event concludes Saturday with rounds 4-7, starting at 11 a.m.

The most intriguing aspect of Tannehill is he spent much of his college career as a receiver before switching back to quarterback midway through his junior year. So he got just one full season at quarterback, although that limited action didn't hurt the draft stock of Auburn's Newton or USC's Mark Sanchez, selected fifth overall by the Jets in 2009.

Not surprisingly, Tannehill sees his wideout experience as a plus.

"It helps me relate to receivers in a way that a lot of other guys can't," he said. "I've been in their shoes, I've run the routes, I've seen the adjustments, when you want the ball coming in and out of breaks. I learned a lot about playing quarterback through playing receiver."

Weeden's path to this point was even more roundabout. He was a pitcher selected in the second round of the 2002 Major League Baseball draft, the first selection of the Yankees. He spent time in the Dodgers and Royals organizations before quitting baseball and enrolling at Oklahoma State in 2007.

"From a maturity standpoint, I've already been a pro," Weeden said at the scouting combine. "That's what I've been telling teams, and they agree with me. In baseball, it's a game of failure. I've failed, and I've had some success, and I've kind of ridden the roller coaster."

A different kind of roller coaster will tick-tick-tick its way to the top of the hill Thursday night, with all sorts of drops, dips and twists to follow.

Even for Luck and Griffin, the players who know where they're heading, there's still some drama to come — or maybe feigned drama.

"I do happen to know where I'm going, but I'm still going to act as if when I hear my name called, `Oh! Yes! I got drafted!'" Griffin said.

"You want to soak up every moment of it, because it only happens once."