Posted - 04/04/2010 : 13:12:42 Canucks and Ottawa look to be Canada's best chances at a Stanley Cup run this year - excluding the potential last minute 8th place finishes and cinderella runs for Calgary and Montreal of course.

My handle and previous posts give me away as a Canucks fan, and I like their chances this year more than years past. Of course, I've liked their chances every year they make the playoffs only to be dissapointed in another second round exit. This year is no different - we have all the tools to go all the way, but in the back of your mind you can't help but wonde what horrible weakness will suddenly surface somewhere in the second round and end the dream

In 2010, what weakness do you think will hurt the Canucks the most?

22 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First)

polishexpress

Posted - 04/08/2010 : 22:53:39 Cool stat I found on NHL.com after reading nuxfan's response to my question: Vancouver is 2nd in most goals scored in the 3rd period, 9 ahead of SJ and 10 behind WAS. They are also 4th in least amount of goals allowed in the third.

According to NHL.com, Vancouver is 2nd in the league in win % when trailing after two. (WAS is first with 36%, Van is 31%) But they have the most wins with 11W's when trailing after two, with 3 teams tied at 8W's after VAN.

Scary thought, though, is who wins the most after leading after 2: Buffalo, has yet not lost a game after leading for two periods. VAN is second, with a 97%. Even scarier is that leading after one period, the best teams percentage wise are NSH and PHX, with a 95.8%!

nuxfan

Posted - 04/08/2010 : 22:26:33 Polishexpress:

I do think the Canucks have way more character this year than in years past - in fact I think its one of their biggest areas of improvement. However, it remains to be seen if that carries over into the playoffs or not. I think it will, but we'll see.

AFAIK, the Canucks lead the league this year - by a wide margin - in wins when down after 2 periods. They usually play pretty hard when down (their real problem recently has been playing hard when they're up). They are fast and skilled, but also tough. They have balance that they've never had before. But, we'll see if it carries over into the playoffs or not.

We'rel worried about facing Detroit first round, but honestly, I think anyone in the west would be (SJ and CHI included).

polishexpress

Posted - 04/08/2010 : 21:17:06 In regards to the Canuck's achilles heel, I have to ask what their team character is like. I don't watch much of Vancouver, so I can't say myself.

I've noticed that most teams that finish in one of the top spots in the conference usually have enough firepower,d, and goaltending to beat any team on any given night.

But teams that really go far have a grit and determination that they turn on in the playoffs(a la Pittsburgh & Detroit the past couple of years). Has Vancouver shown potential to do so in their regular season games? Have they shown the desire to win? To they play as hard as they can even when they are down 3 or 4 goals? Have they had many comeback wins?

Basically, what I'm asking about is their intangibles, the things you can't measure. If they have that, then with their goalie, forwards, and defense, they can definitely beat anyone. (See Oilers 06, Flames 04 they lost, but brought effort to every game in the playoffs. And, for that reason, I'm worried for the team that has to face Detroit first round.)

Beans15

Posted - 04/08/2010 : 21:15:12 Emphatically agree with Irvine here, with the exception that I think Nashville would be a very tough match up, likely winning.

Here's the thing, Vancouver has a glass jaw in the discipline department. They are the 5th most penalized team in the NHL this season(based on PIM/game average). Last year in the playoffs, they were the 3nd most penalized team. Their coach demands physical play and it is their style. They also have a line up with players known to muck it up and retaliate.

When you have your players in the box for 15+ minutes a game, multiple things happen. Firstly, at an 80-85% PK (which Vancouver has), they will get multipe PP goals against each game. Furthermore, and in some cases more importantly, the Sedins are not cycling the puck down low when Vancouver is killing penalties. Adding insult to injury, it's looking like either a Nashville or Detroit 1st round match up.

Anyone want to guess who the #1 and #2 least penalized teams where in the NHL this season???

The one saving grace is that Nashville's PP is not great. But, you give that group in Detroit 8 PP's a night and it's time to say good night.

I really don't like Vancouver's shot this season. Not for any other reason but I don't think they beat SJ, Det, or Chi. I think they are in really tough against Nashville either.

If Vancouver can stay out of the box, the absolutely have a shot and a really good one. But I don't see that happening. As good as Luongo can be(at times) I don't think he's got the chops to carry that kind of load(15+PK minutes a night). I don't think any keeper in the league has those kinds of chops.

Anyone remember that recent ESPN player poll?? What was that guys name would(by a large margin) was voted the NHL's most over rated players??

It was a Vancouver keeper not named Andrew.

irvine

Posted - 04/08/2010 : 20:53:24 I'm well aware that it takes four to win. But more often than not, we see 6 or 7 game series. Not 4 straight wins by a team, unless they purely dominate. I don't see Vancouver that far ahead of every team in the West, that they are going four games only. So, they have to be prepared for 7, going in to any series.

As for Vancouver making the finals this year, I'm not biting. I see them eliminated once they meet SJ, DET or CHI. Whichever round that may be. Likely, the second round.

I can see Vancouver beating Phoenix, Nashville, Colorado and perhaps LA. Although, I think even LA can battle them. I don't have them beating San Jose, Detroit or Chicago. And in order to make it to the finals, they'll have to beat one of those teams at some point.

Everyone has their opinion, and mine is that Vancouver is not going to be as strong as most think. Of course, I could be eating my words!

Irvine/prez.

slozo

Posted - 04/08/2010 : 19:31:15 Well, to win a series Irvine doesn't take 7 . . . it only takes 4 wins, and if a goalie can steal two or three that's all you really need to steal a series if your offense isn't clicking.

And, EVERYONE concentrates more on defence, or in my opinion, everyone has more pressure on them to score and thus squeezes their sticks harder. Overall, the playoffs is generally lower scoring - which is why teams like Washington, and yes, Vancouver, are so dangerous . . . you will probably have to score three goals to beat them any given game.

Detroit has much shallower scoring depth, although they have the experience . . . and they have a rookie, untested goalie. San Jose has scoring, but mediocre goaltending it seems when it comes to the playoffs, and Thornton never seems to elevate his game. Chicago has it all except for the fact of one unproven goalie (or two).

It's not like Vancouver doesn't have weaknesses either, but the one usually more important factor - the goalie - is the strongest with the Canucks versus those top teams. And that could well be the difference.

I am no Canuck fan, but I am picking Vancouver to make it to the final this year, I just think Luongo is up to something special this year.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug

irvine

Posted - 04/08/2010 : 12:37:12 I realize the goals scored on behalf of the Canucks this season. But I believe firmly (and of course, it is only self opinion and speculation) that when the Canucks enter the playoffs, they do not score as much.

I believe the Canucks will slow down their offensive prowess, and focus more on the defensive aspect of the game. Which, tends to be the playoff style of most teams. With that being said, I was referring to if the Canucks D is missing those key components, while focusing on the defensive aspect, they are in trouble.

I really do not see them outscoring teams like Detroit, Nashville, San Jose or Chicago. All four of these teams are fairly sound defensively, with Chicago & Detroit's goaltending a little suspect right now.

Detroit, San Jose & Chicago all have the tools needed to score, and the playoffs are a new ball game. Does Vancouver really have more scoring depth (regardless of stats) than these three teams when it's going to truly count? I don't believe so.

As for Luongo not capable of stealing a series, I stand by that.

Luo is an excellent goaltender, as I mentioned. But he can't do it all, not in a 7 game playoff serious where is going to play every second night, at a high pace level against teams with tons of offense, all working their hardest. I don't believe any goalie can. A game? YES. He can steal a game, but he's not going to steal 7... sorry.

That's what I meant, regarding both. And as for being a Canucks fan... well, hrm... not a chance. :P

Go SENS!

Irvine/prez.

Alex116

Posted - 04/07/2010 : 10:32:56

quote:Originally posted by slozo

Alex - well, I was overstating my case a bit, and I do realise that Irvine is not a Canuckleheads fan. Just teasing is all.

After all, what else can I as a Leafs fan do at this point but cajole with Canucks fans, laugh and point at Flames fans, sneer at Ottawa fans, taunt Canadiens fans about the upcoming 4 game sweep, and rejoice in the next two months of playoff hockey while watching Beans make comments under a Leafs avatar!

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug

LOL, point taken

If it weren't for the potential matchups, i'd say the Habs would have a shot at making a series out of whoever they play (and if it's Buff, i think they will) but there's some tough teams for them to match up with in Wash/Pit/NJ. Even Ottawa looks to face either Pit or NJ which isn't exactly a nice matchup?

As for Beans and the Leafs logo, it'll be worth a chuckle

Gotta say, prob too little too late, but the Leafs really made a push the past couple weeks and with a little luck, could see that pick they traded be 3rd or 4th rather than 1/2? Amazing how a few wins here or there during the season can sting you so bad in the end!

slozo

Posted - 04/07/2010 : 09:48:25 Alex - well, I was overstating my case a bit, and I do realise that Irvine is not a Canuckleheads fan. Just teasing is all.

After all, what else can I as a Leafs fan do at this point but cajole with Canucks fans, laugh and point at Flames fans, sneer at Ottawa fans, taunt Canadiens fans about the upcoming 4 game sweep, and rejoice in the next two months of playoff hockey while watching Beans make comments under a Leafs avatar!

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug

nuxfan

Posted - 04/07/2010 : 09:42:56 Slozo, we Vancouver fans are jaded by years of promise and hope, only to be dissapointed by underachievement. As a Leafs fan, you surely understand this, albeit on a different, non-playoff level... As I mentioned in my original post, I do think the Canucks will do well this year and we have a great attack and solid d - this poll is just a "what if" poll, in the event that our year finishes the way it has in the past. It's not out of the realm of impossibility.

Erhoff will be ready for the playoffs, no doubt. The fact that they've clinched, and seem unlikely to move up to second in the conference, they have a week to rest players that need rest. I don't expect to see Erhoff before the playoffs start, but once they do I expect he'll be fully healthy. I always worry about Salo and Bieksa, our "glass dmen", if we lose either one of them to a season ender it could be the end of the season. No way we'll go far missing 2 of our top 4.

New development - Ryan Johnston now gone for 4-6 weeks. He doesn't score goals, but he's one of the best PK guys in the business, and blocks shots and takes defensive faceoffs. That could be a factor for us now as well.

Alex116

Posted - 04/07/2010 : 08:11:32 @ Slozo..... WTF? Since when is Irv a Canucks fan and since when are we all knuckleheads? I've heard Canucknucklehead before, but really......sheesh (to steal a word)

I was about to reply to Irv's post when i noticed you had for me for the most part.

quote:Irv said:Salo is a skilled defensmen, but he's aging and lacking stability these days. I believe firmly, that if the Canucks have to overplay Salo, due to losing Erhoff (and Mitchell), that Salo will ultimately suffer an injury during the playoffs.

Salo, suffer an injury? NO WAY! lol, yup, it's more or less inevitable and i'm scared it's regardless of whether or not he needs to play extra minutes. I'm worried that even when Ehroff returns that Salo might go down and that will hurt us too. Salo's not a Norris candidate by any means but the Canucks are a better team with him in the lineup!

quote:Irv said: Luongo, although an excellent goaltender, isn't the type to me that can win a playoff serious alone.

Yikes! I would be willing to accept this if you'd said "Luongo, with the way he's playing, is unlikely to steal a series on his own". That'd be acceptable to me, but seriously, as Slozo pointed out, he's been pretty darn good in the past. "Can't" is a pretty big word here, even if you wanna call it your opinion. I'm not saying he's going to, but any goalie can suddenly get hot and if one as good as Luongo does, he'd be scary for the opposition.

As for outscoring a team in the playoffs? Again, "aren't a team that can" = "can't" and that's far too strong here. With the offensive game they've played this year, they can outscore teams. They've proven this. I will concieve that if it's a sound defensive team like Nashville and they find themselves down a couple in the third, it will be difficult. However, they've done it all year and lead the league in third period comeback wins.

I will continue to believe the Canucks, when healthy or at least close to healthy can give any team a run for their money. This is playoff hockey we're talking about. It's all about playing well at the right time and regardless of the team you go in with, you still have just a 1 in 16 chance of winning it all. Funny thing i heard yesterday on the radio. Can't recall who it was but one of the guys was saying that was much as a team like Detroit is considered a scary first round opponent, there's prob not a lot of teams who'd really like to play the Canucks in the first round either! In fact, apparently, someone in LA (i believe it was the Kings PBP guy?) mentioned just last week, after LA pounded Vancouver 8-3, that regardless of that game, they weren 't too excited about possibly drawing the Canucks as their first round opponent!

Guest8165

Posted - 04/07/2010 : 05:31:31 Can't help but wonder if its everything from the Centre Ice line back that will be the weakness. This team looks far from well oiled right now and if Lou keeps up his suspect play I can't see us getting past the second round.

On the other hand.... The playoffs haven't started yet, and I wouldn't doubt if Lou steps up his game and the D-men step up their play like they have all year and we win at least 2 hard fought series.

I liked our chances better about 2 months ago though...

Anything less than a Western Final still has to be a huge disappointment given what this team has shown the type of play it is capable of.

slozo

Posted - 04/07/2010 : 05:28:45 Wow, you Vancouver fans are hilarious . . . as much as we Leaf fans often have an overconfidence problem, you guys seriously have some self-confidence issues.

Vancouver can't outscore the opposition?The Canucks LEAD ALL WESTERN CONFERENCE TEAMS IN GOALS SCORED, knuckleheads. They have 6 forwards with over 20 goals and have an extremely balanced attack, despite how great Sir Henrik has played this year. They most certainly can outscore anyone in a 7 game playoff, as they did so already during an 82 game schedule.

Luongo can't steal a series?Roberto Luongo, like any great goalie out there, isn't perfect, and he has his ups and downs . . . but just because last year he had a shaky last game against a very good Chicago team doesn't mean he can't steal a series. We are talking about a goalie here who for the last two playoffs with the Canucks held a 1.77 GAA and .941 sv% in 2007, and a 2.52 GAA and .914sv% in 2009 (this, despite the high scoring series against Chicago). He has won gold medals in every international competition he's entered, and the only thing missing from his trophy case is a Stanley Cup.

Does that sound like a goalie who can't steal a series?!?

And the defence . . . well, I agree that Erhof gone and Mitchell out, it's a big blow - but teams with thinner line-ups and worse offences and more porous goalies have survived with less - By the second round, they should get at least one of these guys back, maybe both.

Chill out, Vancouver: you've got a great team, and as good a chance as Chicago, San Jose or Detroit to make it to the finals, so relax and enjoy the ride!

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug

redneck76ca

Posted - 04/07/2010 : 00:40:55

quote:Originally posted by irvine

I'm unsure of the seriousness of the injury to Ehroff, but if it is bad, the Canucks are in big trouble.

The Canucks are now lacking defensive depth. With Mitchell out, and possibly Erhoff, their top d-man will be Sami Salo.

Salo is a skilled defensmen, but he's aging and lacking stability these days. I believe firmly, that if the Canucks have to overplay Salo, due to losing Erhoff (and Mitchell), that Salo will ultimately suffer an injury during the playoffs.

Salo is just not durable enough to sustain a ton of ice time, during the high paced playoffs. And if Salo goes does, or is beat up and slowing down, the Canucks defense collapses. Luongo, although an excellent goaltender, isn't the type to me that can win a playoff serious alone.

The Canucks, aren't a team that can out-score their way through a series either, unlike the Capitals.

So my opinion is that if Ehroff is out for the playoffs, the Canucks are out in the first round.

Irvine/prez.

Vigneault said tonight that if it were a playoff game that Ehroff would have been in the line up. The injury does not seem to be very serious.

irvine

Posted - 04/06/2010 : 23:48:32 I'm unsure of the seriousness of the injury to Ehroff, but if it is bad, the Canucks are in big trouble.

The Canucks are now lacking defensive depth. With Mitchell out, and possibly Erhoff, their top d-man will be Sami Salo.

Salo is a skilled defensmen, but he's aging and lacking stability these days. I believe firmly, that if the Canucks have to overplay Salo, due to losing Erhoff (and Mitchell), that Salo will ultimately suffer an injury during the playoffs.

Salo is just not durable enough to sustain a ton of ice time, during the high paced playoffs. And if Salo goes does, or is beat up and slowing down, the Canucks defense collapses. Luongo, although an excellent goaltender, isn't the type to me that can win a playoff serious alone.

The Canucks, aren't a team that can out-score their way through a series either, unlike the Capitals.

So my opinion is that if Ehroff is out for the playoffs, the Canucks are out in the first round.

Irvine/prez.

Utemin

Posted - 04/06/2010 : 22:26:20 Mitchell-less defense

Shaky Luongo; hmm if only i had a defenseman in front of me to help me. Well that was Willie's job an all star on defense; Luongo's Coldness might be a start; but has a good chance of stopping and is preventable, sadly the prevention is unabtainable Willie appears to have a career ending Concussion (most likely he had a small concussion before the hit) Willie being a tough guy should be able to get back for the finals; but who knows. (buh-hum-bug) screw other teams, the strength of another team doesn't effect your play it is the strength of your team, hopefully the Canucks can pull it through.

nuxfan

Posted - 04/04/2010 : 22:43:22 Alex, agreed - they are not far off SJ and CHI. I think we can beat either one in a 7 game series, but the Canucks have to be clicking for that to happen - no games like tonight's "defeating win" against Minnesota.

Chicago is going to be interesting this year, and I think more than any other team their success will hinge on goaltending. If they get solid goaltending from Niemi (no, I don't think Huet is going to be starting in net come playoff time for Chicago, or if he does he won't last long in the first round), they could go deep. If they don't, its going to be bitter for them.

SJ - who knows. Every year I keep waiting for them to live up to potential. Maybe this is the year that they finally do and stomp over everyone on their way to the cup. Or, maybe we don't meet them because they bow out in the first round again.

Alex116

Posted - 04/04/2010 : 22:28:13 I voted the D, not only because of Mitchell, but just their inconsistency. Their top 4 or great when they play their game but they've been as inconsistent as Luongo aside from Ehroff who i heard was a plus 2 in that debacle vs LA last week. That is unconfirmed btw.

I'm not about to say the Canucks are better than SJ or Chi, but i will say, they're not far off. I mean, look at their records! They're very close in points over 78 or so games. If both bring their best, Chi should beat them in a 7 game series but i would never say the "can't" beat any opponent. It's all about peaking at the right time.

We've seen more than one 8 seed make the finals so you just don't know what will happen! As for matchups, Det is def a very unlucky "reward" for one of the top teams! They can be beat, but they're pretty scarey to face now that they're healthy. Nashville would be my pick for their best opposition. I'd rather be defending a team like them late in a game than i would the Kings. Playoff hockey is all about D and Nashville's offense isn't nearly as scary as LA's can be. As far as looking in the long term (if they were to make a run to the conference final or cup final) LA would be a better matchup as far as travel is concerned.

nuxfan

Posted - 04/04/2010 : 14:59:23 I have to agree about Detroit Beans, I don't think anyone wants a first round matchup against the Wings - they are a far better team than their record indicates, and have a ton of experience. However, they also have an unknown in Howard - great regular season, but we'll see what he can do in the playoffs.

Nashville, I think we stack up well, and I think we'd beat them. It would be a good series.

Prevailing opinion in Vancouver seems to be that our best matchup would be LA, who most people have written off as first round fodder due to inexperience. With the exception of last weeks brutal outing, we've played them well this year.

I for one am glad that we will likley be facing someone different in the first round - playoff series are great for building rivalries where otherwise there was not one. LA or Nashville would be nice.

Beans15

Posted - 04/04/2010 : 13:56:53 I simply think that on each teams best days(healthy and all players on top of their game), Vancouver can beat Chicago, San Jose, or Detroit.

Now, I am not talking about head to head records or anything else. Simply: Chicago is deeper across the board(save goaltending) and better coached, San Jose's front loaded 1st line and defense is better, and Detroit is better coached and more experienced.

I don't agree that Vancouver has the tools because they are not deep enough on the back end and I find them to be an undisciplined team at times. Granted, I believe their coach demands a physical game from his players, but as has happened in most years, penalties are significantly more punishing in the playoffs and Vancouver does know their way to the penalty box.

Even an uber disciplined team like Nashville(less than 9 minutes a game in PIM) would have an advantage over the nearly 16 PIM a game that Vancouver finds.

All I can think is that Vancouver is hoping to play a team like LA first round as I think they would be in seriously tough against either Nashville or Detroit.

nuxfan

Posted - 04/04/2010 : 13:14:50 oh, and I voted for "shaky Luongo". This team goes nowhere if he plays like he has been since the Olympics ended.

nuxfan

Posted - 04/04/2010 : 13:13:49 Although "stronger opponent" is not really a fault of the canucks, I have to add it with the knowledge that the Canucks may just simply lose to a better opponent.