Will the Australian Dollar maintain its strength?

Overnight tonight we will see the latest RBA meeting minutes released as well as a speech from the assistant Governor of the RBA, Guy Debelle. Previously the RBA have said that interest rates will remain on hold for the time being, if Debelle's speech maintains the same dovish tone we could see further AUD weakness. The table below shows the difference in Australian Dollars you could have achieved when buying £200,000.00 during the high and low points of the past 30 days.

Currency Pair

% Change

Difference on £200,000

GBP

AUD

4.5%

AUD $16,140

Could the Pound fightback against the Australian Dollar?

The Pound has fallen against the Australian Dollar during last week finally breaking lower than 1.80 on the Interbank level for the first time in a few weeks. The Pound dipped following the news from the Bank of England but with the RBA minutes due on Tuesday early morning could we see the Pound make a recovery?

The Reserve Bank of Australia has been under a lot of pressure lately and have previously hinted that Australian interest rates will remain on hold for quite some time.

With the minutes due out overnight I think another dovish tone could potentially see the Australian Dollar weaken vs the Pound. The minutes will also be followed by RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle’s speech.

Australian inflation data has been lower than forecast during the last quarter and with inflation still lower than the target I cannot see when the RBA will look to raise rates and that is why I think the minutes could cause GBPAUD rates to go in an upwards direction.

The RBA’s target is between 2%-3% so with inflation at 1.9% the expectation for a rate hike during 2018 is approximately 30% according to a Bloomberg report.

Australian Politics to influence the Australian Dollar

According to a poll released over the weekend the survey showed that Malcolm Turnbull is likely to win the Queensland seat of Longman by 53% and this would in effect provide him with a further majority in parliament.

After last week’s Budget which was primarily aimed at the electorate middle-class it looks as though Turnbull could maintain his power for another term. His current term is due to end in the next twelve months but as things appear to be stabilising this could potentially strengthen the Australian Dollar when the by elections take place next month.

S. Alcock

Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.