Rail fare increases might make grim news for commuters in the Home Counties
but the government should also be worried about the impact on marginal
constituencies, says The Telegraph's David Millward.

No matter which way you cut it, the winners from the latest inflation figures are the train operators, at least according to a recent report by the National Audit Office.

Thanks to the surprise jump in RPI they can look forward to millions of pounds more income than they might have expected, even though a reasonable chunk of the cash will in turn be siphoned off to the Department for Transport.

The surprising jolt in RPI is pretty grim news for commuters, especially those who live in areas which are regularly singled out for higher fare rises because they have no alternative way of getting to work.

Coalition ministers have repeatedly said they want to bring an end to above inflation fare rises, insisting that this can only be done by cutting the cost of running the rail industry.

This glorious day will come when savings demanded by Sir Roy McNulty, the Government’s rail adviser, are put in place.

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But ministers might want to tell passengers why fares are continuing to spike when Network Rail has already slashed its running costs over the past five years.

According to Sir David Higgins, the company’s chief executive, the Treasury will have already netted a rebate of £310 million by April 2014 thanks to efficiency improvements already in place.

On coming to office, much to many observers’ surprise, the Coalition did not take an axe to investment plans already in place.

But such generosity came at a price and within months they reversed two key decisions by the previous Government.

One was to scrap the one per cent above inflation limit on fare rises, which had been in place for years.

The other was to reintroduce a system known as “Flex”, allowing train operators to push some fares up by eye-watering amounts.

Lord Adonis, the Transport Secretary in the last Labour Government, regarded Flex as political suicide. He did not want to be the politician telling the good folk of Canterbury - a station which seems to be regularly stuffed by the system - why their fares were going up by more than 10 per cent.

There is one glimmer of hope for commuters. Last year Justine Greening, the current incumbent, persuaded the Treasury to cough up the cash to bring the increase in the cost of season tickets down to an average of one per cent above inflation.

Network Rail’s improved efficiency should enable her to make the case again which, given the number of marginal seats on key commuter routes, may make good political sense.