24Mar15

Al Qaeda and allies form coalition to battle Syrian regime in Idlib

On Mar. 19, the al Qaeda leader known as Sanafi al Nasr returned to Twitter
after an absence of more than a month and half. Nasr is both an official in al
Qaeda's global network and a senior strategist in the Al Nusrah Front, al
Qaeda's official branch in Syria. In several tweets, Nasr honored his deceased
mother, mentioned the injuries he sustained last year, and asked Allah for
success in the jihadists' upcoming battle in Idlib.

Nasr's tweets were not offhand remarks. He had good reasons to openly pray
for success. The Nusrah Front and its jihadist allies have been preparing to
launch a new offensive against Syrian regime forces in Idlib for some time.

Earlier this week, several rebel groups announced that they had established a
new coalition named Jaysh al Fateh. In addition to Al Nusrah, the coalition
includes Ahrar al Sham, Jund al Aqsa, Liwa al Haqq, Jaysh al Sunna, Ajnad al
Sham, and Faylaq al Sham. The coalition has the city of Idlib in its
crosshairs, having already captured much of the surrounding territory. The
alliance launched its offensive today, utilizing suicide bombers in a complex
assault.

The Jaysh al Fateh alliance is being promoted online with a new Twitter page.
A screen shot of the Twitter feed can be seen above. And the groups behind it
have already published propaganda on their own Twitter pages in support of
their efforts.

For instance, the Al Nusrah Front posted a 1 minute, 13 second video earlier
today showing two of its fighters firing an American-made TOW missile
outside of Idlib. The video includes logos for both Al Nusrah's "correspondents
network" and Jaysh al Fateh in the upper lefthand corner.

A screen shot from the video can be seen on the right. In a follow-up tweet,
Al Nusrah claimed to have successfully used a second TOW missile. This is not
the first time Al Nusrah has advertised its use of American-made weapons. In
December of last year, the group posted a video and pictures of its fighters
using a TOW missile in Idlib. It is likely the weapons were captured from
Western-backed groups, which have received some American-made arms.

Jaysh al Fateh and its social media presence have been endorsed by key al
Qaeda-linked figures online. One of them is Sheikh Abdallah Muhammad al
Muhaysini, who is closely tied to Al Nusrah.

Although he claims to have no organizational affiliation, Muhaysini has clearly
coordinated his efforts in Syria with al Qaeda's most senior leadership at
times. In late January 2014, for instance, he released a reconciliation initiative
for jihadists in Syria just several hours after Ayman al Zawahiri called for such
a proposal. The initiative failed to bring together the Islamic State, an al
Qaeda offshoot that rules over large portions of Iraq and Syria, and its jihadist
rivals, including Al Nusrah. Muhaysini continues to work with Al Nusrah and
other jihadist groups.

On his popular Twitter feed, which has more than 345,000 followers,
Muhaysini has heavily promoted Jaysh al Fateh and its social media presence.
Muhaysini has also openly called for the "liberation" of Idlib in recent days,
thereby underscoring just how important the effort is to the jihadists.

On Mar. 18, al Araby al Jadeed reported on the planning behind the offensive
in Idlib. A source allegedly serving in the Al Nusrah Front told the publication
that "three operations rooms" had been set up to coordinate the jihadists'
efforts, with two being "fake" and one "real." The publication's source accused
the Syrian regime of using "toxic gas" in an attack on one of the operations
rooms in the town of Sarmin.

The same source claimed that Al Nusrah was contributing 3,000 fighters to
the battle, and that the various rebel groups had divided responsibilities
between them. Neither the allegation concerning the use of "toxic gas," nor
the number of Al Nusrah fighters participating in the battle could be
independently verified.

The battle for the city of Idlib is a crucial part of the jihadists' strategy for
consolidating their control over significant territory in northwestern Syria. The
Al Nusrah Front has repeatedly gone on the offensive against regime forces
and Western-backed rebels in Idlib and Aleppo since late last year. Al Nusrah
has captured locations previously controlled by the Syrian Revolutionaries
Front and Harkat Hazm, both of which have been backed by the West.

In October 2014, Nusrah launched coordinated suicide bombings in Idlib and
temporarily took control of government buildings in the city. That attack, as
well as other attempts to take control of the city, have been repelled by
Syrian government forces and their Iranian-backed allies.

Sanafi al Nasr and his colleagues in al Qaeda are clearly hoping for a different
outcome this time.

[Source: By Thomas Joscelyn, The Long War Journal, NJ, 24Mar15]

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