Hidden Roots of a Comeback With Damian Lillard

I've probably written more about Portland on this blog than any other team aside from perhaps the Timberwolves, and I've definitely watched more Blazers games than any other team this season. They not only have for my money the prettiest offense in the league, but also my favorite player (Nic Batum, don't think there isn't a 5,000 word opus on him coming sometime this season). And there games are almost always entertaining. But that entertainment value contains the kernel of their own downfall; Blazer games are fun because no on e can stop them, but they can't stop anyone either.

In fact, Portland is actively contemplating switching him off of guarding point guards full time. The logic behind this move is clear - as I wrote yesterday, Lillard can't stay in front of people:

Over-commits and jumps into ball screens:

And sometimes gives up on the play too early after being beat:

So opposing point guards are living in the lane. So sure, let Wes Matthews or Batum guard them.Except, who does Lillard check then? That cure might just be worse than the disease.

As an example, on Saturday the Blazers were in perfect position to dispatch a tired Toronto squad on the second night of a back-to-back (they had beaten the Nuggets in Denver the night before). The Raps had been listless and disengaged in the first half, with Portland holding a 17-point lead at the start of the third. But then, Toronto decided to test whether Lillard could actually guard fellow All-Star DeMar DeRozan. Spoiler alert: No. No he couldn't.

And sometimes even multiple failings were on display on a single play - here he gives up on a pick-and-roll, and then closes out extremely out of control allowing for an open three:

In fact, by taking Lillard off of guarding the primary ball-handler, Portland all but ensured a steady stream of quality possessions for Toronto, and the Raptors took advantage by coming all the way back, even briefly taking the lead before Portland held on, in part because coach Terry Stotts switched Matthews back onto DeRozan for the final play.

Given the importance of Lillard's skill and moxie to Portland's offense, he has to be on the floor. But unless he can substantially improve on defense, you have to worry if his failings will always represent something of a hard ceiling on the potential of this particular Blazers roster.

Coach Nick at BBallBreakdown has asked me to contribute to his site on a regular basis, I hope to do something similar to today's bit on the Blazers about once a weak, and am very interested in suggestions of specific plays, players or games that people would like to see broken down in this way. Let me know any suggestions in comments or on twitter @WhrOffnsHppns