Rick Casey: City Hall Latino win may end up as a loss instead

The former Houston Port commissioner finally got the two new City Council districts he has sought for years in order to give more political power to Hispanics, only to find that the council expansion may well shrink Latino power.

Martinez and former Houston Councilman Carroll Robinson went to court two years ago to try to force the city of Houston to expand the City Council by two districts so that Hispanics, who account for the majority of the city's growth, could add one or two more council members to the two they already have.

Martinez and Robinson argued that the expansion was required by a 1979 settlement with the Justice Department in which the city agreed to expand the council by two members, elected by districts, when its population reached 2.1 million.

Official estimates indicated Houston had reached that level several years ago.

Martinez and Robinson lost. A federal judge ruled for the city, which had argued that it should wait two years for official and more complete census figures. As it happened, census figures indicated — falsely, the city claims - that we were just shy of 2.1 million.

But the mayor and council decided to go forward with the expansion, which would bring us to a council with 11 members elected by districts instead of nine, and five elected citywide.

But now that a number of maps have been produced, experts believe there is a good chance neither of the two new districts will elect a Hispanic to the council.

That would mean that rather than enhance Hispanic power, the expansion would actually dilute it. The two Hispanic council members would make up 18 percent of the council, rather than 22 percent.

It sounds like a bad lawyer joke. Hispanics have provided an overwhelming majority of the population growth of the city (and state and nation), but will get slightly less representation on the expanded column.

How can this be?

Half too young to vote

The biggest factor is that while Houston is now about 44 percent Hispanic, only about half are citizens of voting age.

Many are not citizens, especially in the Gulfton and Spring Branch areas.

But many are under age 18. According to Rice University's Steve Murdock, former Texas state demographer, only 14 percent of Houston's children are Anglo. Most of the remainder are Hispanic.

In addition, voter turnout among qualified Hispanics lags, partly because of large numbers of low-income citizens. According to Murdock, 42.5 percent of Hispanic adults in Texas have less than a high school education.

16 district seats instead?

The lack of voting power shows in the fact that Harris County now doesn't have a single Hispanic county commissioner, though the county is 41 percent Hispanic. And the area's congressional seat drawn for Hispanics is held by Anglo Gene Green.

So Martinez knows what he's up against in creating a more Latino city council, and he has another idea.

If the new approved map can't produce two more districts favorable for an Hispanic candidate, he will ask the Justice Department to rule against the map on the basis that it unlawfully dilutes minority voting power.

Martinez says the obvious solution is to replace the five at-large seats with districts, making all 16 seats elected by district.

Not a slam dunk

He points out that 20 years ago a lawsuit and rulings from the Justice Department led Dallas to convert its three at-large seats to districts.

The legal math is more complex than I have room to explain here, but Martinez thinks the Voting Rights Act is clearly on his side.