US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -0.8pts @ 2035 (intra low 2022). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook threatens a bounce to the 2045/55 zone, but a break above the recent high of 2056 looks overly difficult. First soft downside target is the 1960/50 zone.

sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: micro chop, but leaning to the upside.
--

... and another (if short) week comes to a close.

Pretty subdued overall, and its been a fair while since we've seen any dynamic price action.

All US indexes look stuck at what are multiple aspects of resistance.
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Best guess... regardless of any Mon/Tuesday upside, the market looks to have maxed out at sp'2056.

If correct, its just a matter of how many days it takes to test the 50dma/lower daily bollinger.. whether next week.. or early April.
--

Have a good holiday/Easter weekend!

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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening.. to wrap up the week.

US equities remain in micro chop mode, with the hourly cycle swinging back toward the equity bulls. Indeed, the sp'2040s look very viable next Mon/Tuesday. Regardless of the exact close, all US indexes are set for the first net weekly decline in six weeks.

sp'60min

sp'weekly1b

Summary

Little to add.

Interesting week... congrats to those who managed to stay awake for much of it!
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US equities remain weak, but the hourly MACD cycle is highly suggestive of a short term floor of sp'2022, along with VIX 16.44. Upside across next Monday/Tuesday morning looks probable, back to the 2040s, with VIX 14s, before next rollover.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

It sure is pretty quiet out there... but then, that is as it should be.

There is little to add... other than its notable that Oil is clawing upward from the earlier low of $38.33, currently -0.8%.
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US equities remain moderately weak, sp -9pts @ 2026. Cyclically, we're still due a bounce, but with each passing hour, the recent high of 2056 is more likely a key mid term high. VIX remains 'relatively' subdued, +4% in the 15s. The key 20 threshold looks viable next week.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

*note the upper daily bollinger for the VIX, across next week, that will be around the key 20 threshold.
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So.. we're still weak, and with a 3 day holiday ahead, price action will be increasingly subdued this afternoon.

Q. How spooked will the cheerleaders on clown finance TV be, with a third consecutive net daily decline?

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Here in London city

Bear market remains under construction

Not an inspiring way to lead into 'Good Friday', rainy, and zero sunshine.

US equities remain moderately weak, but the smaller hourly cycle is on the very low side, and we're set to recover (if choppy) into the weekly close, and probably across Monday/early Tuesday. What is now rather exciting is if the next up cycle merely puts in a marginally lower high <2056.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*again, note the opening black-fail candle in the VIX. Considering the holiday, and the hourly MACD cycle, we're set to see the VIX cool back to the 14s.
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Suffice to add.. its been a somewhat interesting few days. Now its a case of where we close the month. The monthly 10MA stands at 2016, and I'd prefer a close under that.

Even if we're 2040s next Tuesday lunch time (when the Yellen will appear), it won't take much to get to 2015/2005 by the Thursday/March close.

US equity indexes open broadly lower, with the sp' having now cooled from 2056 to the 2020s. The bigger daily/weekly cycles are looking maxed out. Metals are somewhat struggling, Gold +$1, with Silver +0.3%. Oil remains under increasing pressure, -3% in the mid $38s.

sp'weekly1b

VIX'60min

Summary

*note the VIX hourly candle.... a black-fail... considering we have a 3 day break ahead... its a probable opening exhaustion high. Equity bears... beware.
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PMI serv' sector: 51.0 (prev' 49.8), arguably 'okay', but neither is it anything for the econ' bulls to get excited about.
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Even if there is a latter day recovery, its still looking like we'll get our first net weekly decline in six weeks.

Any bounce next Mon/Tuesday will likely result in a marginally lower high <2056.... one to short into.

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notable weakness... FCX, daily

Again, its a case where any moderately lower open in the broader market leads to the 'junk' getting smashed.

Most notable today, price action in WTIC oil, which battled hard to hold the $40 threshold, but fell apart in the afternoon, settling -$1.43 (3.5%) at $39.79. On any fair outlook, Oil is close to a key mid term top, and looks set for renewed broad downside into the summer, as the over-supply issue remains entirely unresolved.

WTIC, weekly2

WTIC, daily

Summary

Note the current green candle on the weekly cycle, still indicative of broader upside. Weekly upper' bol is in the $44s... but will cool to the $43s next week.

The daily cycle offers clear resistance at the 200dma in the mid $42s

Regardless of near term price action, the bigger issue is one of over-supply. That has not in any way been resolved.. and thus I am seeking new multi-year lows in the months ahead.

I'd argue its not whether we'll see WTIC Oil in the teens, but for how many days, weeks.. or even months, will it trade there?

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As for equities...

sp'weekly6

The equity bears can start getting mildly excited once we see the first blue candle. As was the case from Nov-Dec', before <1810, price action will likely see a fair few swings (across 3-5 weeks) before a break of the Feb'11 low of 1810.

In any case, first downside target (via daily charts) is the 50dma/lower daily bollinger. In early April, that will be in the sp'1950/60s.
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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the weekly jobs, and Durable goods orders.

With Friday CLOSED, expect increasingly minor chop into the late afternoon, and such light action generally favours the equity bulls.

*Fed official Bullard will be speaking, and Mr Market will be listening, as chatter of a 'Yellen revolt' increases.
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US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -13pts @ 2036. The two leaders
- Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.7% and -2.0% respectively. Considering
the 3 day holiday weekend ahead, and the smaller hourly MACD cycle,
there is significant threat of renewed upside into early next week.

sp'daily5

NYSE comp'

R2K

Summary

sp'500 - break of rising trend... a viable key top of 2056. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle set to turn negative no later than next Mon/Tuesday.

NYSE comp' - stuck at the 200dma....highly representative of the main market, which still looks set for renewed broad downside into the summer.

R2K, maxed out from 1103.. just a trio of points above the key 1100 threshold.... with a very sig' daily decline of around -2.0%.

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I (Permabear Doomster) am not a financial advisor as officially endorsed by any national government, corporation, financial/securities regulatory authority in neither the USA, UK, or any part of the world. None of the posts/comments in these pages are intended as trading/investment advice. They are merely my opinion on where a given market/stock and any other 'instrument, index, etc' may move at any future time.