RSI ANALYSIS:
1 - A series of negative divergences (not bearish divergence) heralded a high-probability decline
-- A negative divergence occurs where RSI carves a higher-high against a lower lower or double-top in price - Expect a significant decline once this high-probability event occurs (higher prob than bearish divergences)
-- Each negative divergences occurred with a single penetration of the 70-Line - Bears are pressing against bulls
-- The most recent RSI illustrates a double 70-Line validation - Bulls are pressing against bears.

Price remains tethered to dashed line as forecast ... Expect the following range to impose first support, then resistance:

Best,

David Alcindor

Kommentar:
02 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As forecast, price continues its retracement to pre-defined range. Expect significant support at that level, and a bullish reprise to the resistance range also pre-defined this week:

David Alcindor

Kommentar:
ADDENDUM ... Tech-Note: Volume

In terms of volume, look for decline representing bearish fatigue, followed by a volume SPIKE to indicate a bottom ("Stopping Volume"), then an increase in volume representing the aforementioned bullish reprise.

Whereas this volume behavior is not a condition for reversal signal, it would help provide a technical clue to the expected price action.

Best,

David Alcindor

Kommentar:
02 FEB 2016 - Tech-Note:

Looking purely at the relative strength between the $UKOil versus the $USOil, it becomes evident in the #brent/#crude chart that $Brent has a relative advance against the US counter-part.

What I would look at is the historical tendencies of the $UKOil to lead $USOil, and the consequent elasticity that has tended to bring the laggard to parity with its leader.

In terms of individual chart, I am still expecting a retracement to the UP-side in the #crude, such that its value "catches up" with that of the leading #brent.

However, in the net analysis, the forecast remains intact and in force, with $USOil aiming for 21.02, as per last year's forecast.

Best,

David Alcindor

PS: Here is the link to the original UKOil vs. USOil chart - Click to link:

Watch for this probable support range (PINK arrow) as price continues to oscillate around the 27.53 support:

Best,

David Alcindor

Kommentar:
16 FEB 2016 - News:

- WAJ: Not Even a Wave of Oil Bankruptcies Will Shrink Crude Production http://on.wsj.com/1Ls8tRY via @WSJMoneyBeat

David

Kommentar:
22 FEB 2016 - Chart Update:

As forecast, price has rallied from its projected base, now carving higher-highs towards the bullish H4 target:

(Source: http://bit.ly/1P4yLv7 )

As mentioned in the original analysis, this bullish target represent a high-probability retracement, pending a bearish target which remains unanswered in the DAILY timeframe:

(Source: http://bit.ly/1n5q3Wj )

Also noted in the analysis is the elastic correlation between the $UKOil and the $USOil, wherein the latter is expected to "catch up" with the former, in a manner that should reduce their differential - In effect, the following chart is thus expected to decline to the level forecast:

Best,

David Alcindor

Kommentar:
25 FEB 2016 - Chart Update:

As price continues to rally from its defined base, watch for 33.57 as a significant structural/resistance level, which if breached, would likely signal a bullish resumption:

David Alcindor

Kommentar:
05 MAR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Retracement continues to unfold to the upside, as forecast, with price nearing the first of three expected Fibonacci levels ... 42.57 residing slightly above 0.618 remains a pending structural target:

Best,

David Alcindor

Kommentar:
17 MAR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to hit the Fibonacci levels and inches closer to the structural 42.57 target:

This suggests that as the $USOil (posted just a few minutes ago) gains ground towards its target, it is also gaining strength against its $UKOil acolyte, expressed in this current chart.

Best,

David Alcindor

Kommentar:
17 MAR 2016 - Addendum #2:

Just as important, this DAILY chart provides a larger granular detail of the 4-hour chart just posted, with an Elliott Wave development which suggests that the Predictive/Forecasting Model's target defined now over a year ago on February 04th, 2015 as 21.02, remains a high-probability event:

Best,

David Alcindor

Kommentar:
02 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Looking at the $UKOil versus $USOil relative strength, the parity line (whereby UKOil = USOil) was reached, and price immediately rallied from thereon.

This is the FIRST parity hit. As you may recall, the UKOil has been a relatively good "feeler" for directional bias, such that as it remains above the value of USOil, it suggests that USOil has yet to rally.

Now that the parily value has been reached, we are to consider the possibility of a reversal, which is occurring in the vicinity of the 0.618-Fibonacci level, which has been hit, whereas the 42.57 remains a PROBABLE target at this time.

Best,

David Alcindor

PS: I am developing a course aimed for experienced traders, so I will need to look at your prior charts, analysis and performance before taking you on - Space is limited to 12 traders per year, as I will aim to provide day-to-day targets before public release, personal trade review, personal coaching and teaching of proprietary patterns and methods (AFT, EAGLE, personal RSI systems, proprietary pattern - Janus, Great White - Price/Volume Analysis).

Kommentar:
Here is the associated chart#1:

David Alcindor

Kommentar:
... And the Relative Strength ("RS") chart between $UKOil and $USOil:

Best,

David Alcindor

Kommentar:
14 APR 2016 - Chart update / Tech-Note:

As per forecast, price has carved higher highs, surpassing the technical 0.618-Fib level, and now consolidating near the 42.57 forecast level - This target remains pending, in force and likely to play out a reversal:

Best,

David Alcindor

Kommentar:
21 APR 2016 - Chart Update: Target Hit; Imminent reversal

Interim, short-term target at 42.57 has finally been hit. Now, expect market to enter a consolidating pattern with high-probability reversal at the 43.57/44.75 range:

For those learning about the GEO construction, see how price is winding around the 2-4-Line transposed off of Point-3 to define Point-5' )called point five prime).

David Alcindor

Kommentar:
24 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Overall, the relative strength between $UKOil and $USOil remains above the parity line, which means that #Brent continues to lead in value over that of $WTI:

However, what the smaller 4-Hour timeframe suggests is a probable reversal at the 42.57/44.75 range:

Hence, look specifically for a move underneath the PARITY line as a probable indication that $WTI is taking over the lead, reversing the relative strength to fractional values.

What the Predictive/Forecasting Model forecasts is a 0.92 attainment, whereas the same Model forecasts 21.02 $USOil value, defined last February 2015, over a year ago.

PS-1: I now offer a private course to advanced technical traders - Only 1-2 students per month, since this is an open-ended course in which I reveal all proprietary patterns and methods, including the "secret" method I have been using to predict and forecast all and any financial markets - If interested, take a look at the generic course outline (each course is tailored to the student, based on proficiency level) here: http://bit.ly/1U0tIka - David

PS-2: For those living in the US, I am considering a one-time one-on-one day-long course in person if this is at all possible in our mutual schedule - The student is welcome to travel to my home in Durango, Colorado, Colorado, or I would consider traveling to student home or workplace, just to get myself out of the mountain - David

Kommentar:
08 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Pattern completion: Kiss of Death

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

Kommentar:
08 JUN 2016 - Addendum:

Watch for this structural support from expected reactive decline as price completes this BEARISH Kiss of Death pattern:

Best,

David

Kommentar:
08 JUN 2016 - Addendum-2:

Predictive/Forecasting Model's target at 21.02 defined on February 2015 remain intact and in force:

Best,

David

Kommentar:
08 JUN 2016 - Addendum-3:

Crude Oil ETF ($W11!) - Daily Chart:

Here, expect a limited reactive rally from 29.350, up to 41.175, and a probable resumption of bearish trend down to 16.325.

Regards,

David

Kommentar:
08 JUN 2016 - Chart update:

Hit Target in M15 chart (announced this morning on Twitter):

Expect bearish entrenchment at this highlighted level.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

Kommentar:
09 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

M15 may provide an early bearish tack indication ... Best is to wait for breach of pattern base at Pt-A:

David Alcindor, CMT #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

Kommentar:
10 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

As forecast, price continues to roll from top-reversal target:

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

Kommentar:
10 JUN 2016 - Addendum:

Most proximal target is geometric - Other targets from Model are more bearish.

Best,

David

Kommentar:
10 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Most immediate target remains geometric:

ST target is structural:

LT target remains 21.02, defined last FEB 2015:

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

Kommentar:
10 JUN 2016 - Chart Update: Target HIT:

... 2 more to go:

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

Kommentar:
13 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Reactive bulls to recent onslaught remain able to push back price to 0.61-Fib = 50.30 - A rally to 52.18 is possible, but less probable:

Overall, bears remain in control, with a LT target still unanswered at 21.02, as per forecast defined nearly 1.5 year ago.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

Kommentar:
14 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

This #oil market remains in the grips of bear and refused to give bull time to regain some air at the surface - Moving on up to the larger timeframe:

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

Kommentar:
15 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

This is an adjustment to last estimated retracement forecast ... Price remains under bearish influence, and an interim rally to the 50.013 vicinity is probable:

Overall, bears remain in charge, with LT target still eyed at 21.02, as defined at the beginning of last year (FEB 201).

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster

Kommentar:
15 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

M15 level forecast expects a slight rally to a limited upside, but higher-timeframe bears remain the dominant forces - A Model's anticipated weak support exists at 46.47, whereas subsequent rally is expected to be shallower in the 38.6-Fib retracement level, corresponding to a structural resistance:

As per long-term forecast, 21.02 remains unanswered, representing the probable target for the time being, best appreciated in the Weekly frame - Predictive analyses and forecast at smaller time frames remain increasingly unreliable:

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster

Kommentar:
21 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Happy FIRST day of summer!

As we depart from the M15 timeframe, following is the H1 with a dashed pathway of a probable price action, as bears continue to dominate the field:

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

Kommentar:
21 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Look for probable exhaustion moves in the 51.01 vicinity:

$TSLA Forecast Hit ALL FEB 2015 Targets: Moving On Up To Weekly Chart:

http://bit.ly/1Iee0fm

#tsla #TeslaMotors

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affilaite #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

Kommentar:
07 JUL 2016 - Tech-Note:

Watch for $USOil decline - Just released a signal where price was expected to turn ... It now did, and we expect a significant decline to 30.58.IF price BACA < 45.82, then expect the following sequence:

3 - Then a resumption to the 30.58 level.This sequence is generated off of the Predictive/Forecasting Model:

Best,

David Alcindor, Alias: 4xForecaster

Kommentar:
07 JUL 2016 - ADDENDUM:

Re: $USOil ... As a general recap:

Price has remained true to forecast, first as hitting and reversing from the extremely narrow target range of 51.58/51.70 I had provided, and then remaining subdued under that level, as further forecast:

Most recently, I forecast a slight reactive rally before another head-strong decline, which is just what occurred this morning:

OVERALL:

As forecast way back in February 2015 (now over 1.5 years ago), the 21.02 target remains intact and in force.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate

Kommentar:
25 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price cedes to 45.82 level as forecast. Bearish momentum carries on as per predictive analysis:

Regards,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

Kommentar:
28 JUL 2016 - Chart Update:

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

Kommentar:
01 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

42.22 consumed ... 36.63 next as per forecast:

Longer-term forecast remains intact and in force as well, with 21.02 as target, defined last year:

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

Kommentar:
02 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to fall, carving lower-lows as per forecast. There is a market-wide expectation of an inverted Head-and-Shoulder pattern formation. Watch for incursion below 37.73 as decreasing probability of such pattern formation - 30.58 remains the next probable level of attainement:

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

Kommentar:
03 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

... Shoulders chopped and heads rolling?

Don't get faked out: A push-back from the next target level at 38.63 may rally to 45.82 and resume its primary bearish tack.

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

Kommentar:
08 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price rallies as per dashed line forecast; Look for resistance near 45.82:

Returning to the $USOil-60-Min. chart, one can expect the most immediate target to remain relevant, especially in the $XLE risk narrative where a decline to a lower-low defining the second inverted shoulder would remain consistent with the short-term bear.

Overall, large vascillations in $USOil may result if $XLE pathway comes true.

For an alternate, moderate forecast, consider the following chart, in which 81.81 aligns 0.618-Fib along a pertinent R/S level: https://www.tradingview.com/x/GDDBBRPi/l

Again, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains net-bearish in the long-term as far as $USOil is concerned, despite a possible interim short-term correction in the broader energy asset class represented by this $XLE chart.

Hello @muskie32 - I have received too many private requests from clients and too many conflicting "warnings" from TradingView about my Forex/stocks/commodity signal service service, that I feel I have to reduce or simply stop my updates, until a more accommodating environment is offered by TradingView.

Understandably, TradingView has to continue to expand by membership, and then keep its members "withing the walls" that it has worked so hard to build. Hence, when traders, instructors and coaches such as myself need to expand their services, it may come a time when there is too little leg-room for it ... Until TradingView makes room for it.

On one hand, I want to use TradingView environment to keep all of my information in here including a signal service in which Forex and commodity predictive analyses and forecasts are first released to clients - But TradingView does not yet host such possibility (i.e.: a private forum in which I release this information, where traders can remain anonymous from one another, which is what ha been the request of most of my clients and students ... Even their aliases is requested to remain unseen from other TradingView users.

Yet on the other hand, TradingView will not allow me to provide any links or references to services I offer outside of TradingView.

My interest is to channel clients to TradingView and keep services all under one and same "TradingView roof". While I continue to support cheerfully the products and services of TradingView, I have to also allow my services to grow and thrive with little impediment. The conflict in which I am left forces me to keep all updates off site, and to delay or completely stop all updates in TradingView, as I am not allowed to promote these services, even if they ultimately generate inbound links and new membership to TradingView.

Until they offer a coveted place in which traders, teachers and coaches such as myself are encouraged to bring in new TradingView clients and offer "in-house" paid services, I have no other choice but to keep a respectful distance from TradingView. I will continue to use their amazing and ever-improving charts.

I hope you understand this conflict, which I know will be resolved in time, as TradingView continues to expand into a more inclusive and accommodating environment.

@abail - I have moved all predictive/forecasting comments to a private signal service. By agreement with TradingView, I cannot offer link or message about it ... Sort of a catch-22, if I even mention about it as in this mere comment.

If and once TradingView offers a private paid room with anonymous members, as I had to do off site, I might be able to speak more of the service. Until then, I might chime in from time to time, but not as overtly and frequently as before.

Feel free to recommend to TradingView that it starts offering a "signal Service" option by its members, as I'd love to keep all of my charting and analyses "within the same house", so to speak.

I struggled to answer your question, as I do not abide to the concept of "supply and demand" - In fact, I wrote a long rant on it the erased it, simply stating that there could not be such a thing as "supply" or "demand", since these concepts call for some spontaneous and coordinated responses from "persons" (i.e.: buyers or sellers).

I have abandoned the concept of public participation in the financial markets, and only then did it start to make sense, and did my analyses started to become correct in direction, strength and extent of the market, as well as specific targets. What I did end up doing was to abandon the notion that price is the leading indicator.

Students of my course seldom look at price first. In fact, my entire lessons are based on the study of composite, modified indicators that reveal a whole lot more information about where price could go. The behavior of indicators I analyze have a better probability of being right than my own attempt at trying to be right with price.

You just asked, and I sincerely appreciate your kind compliments from it: " ... How did you know that it would fall right through the 42 level support structure? "

I could not have know this without the use of the Predictive/Forecasting Model which is the core and the only tool I use. Price comes last only to anchor a price to the forecast, otherwise it remains out of sight, out of mind, and really out of consideration all together. What the "Model" teaches, besides being right more often than I could ever be myself without it, is the discipline of abandoning all that is taken for granted:

Here is what "we", as institutionally-fed retail traders have been ingesting:

1 - Price is the only true reflection of the market activity: Wrong per my analyses ... I have lost more money trading price by itself, by structures or by patterns alone.
2 - Volume reflects the true interest of the market: Wrong. We now know too well by Wyckoff, that volume can to the very least "decode" an institutional footprint, but large volumes do not mean large price action, and vice-versa, therefore the correlation of the two do not and cannot amount to some reflection of buyers and sellers, since the real actors are intermediary "hands" from market makers.
3 - RSI and other indicators cannot be interpreted as "oversold" or "overbought" when these conditions imply an imminent reversal. In fact, hourly, daily weekly and even monthlu charts will show that RSI can dwell and squat in the "conditions" for days, weeks and months at a time, without showing any sign of respite. So, the temporality that is implied in "overbought" or "oversold", which implies that a correction to the normal range is imminent, is simply absurd and misleading to us, the retail traders.

I could go on and one about misleading concept (divergences in RSI is my biggest pet-peeve, since bullish/bearish divergences are in fact counter-trending to their names, and only after sustained repetitions, or given a specific condition, which I teach in the CROW ode course, would call for a decline in price following a so-called bearish divergence - instead, I urge retail traders to abandon these concepts at once and learn more about positive/negative divergences instead, which are less frequent and thus more valuable, in addition to being quite consistent.

I started to trader in 1997 - I believe I may have lost all the money, time and energy (not counting time away from wife and kids) wasting all of these limited resources against so little gain. I did learn something though, but it was once I was willing to abandon all of the things I had held so closely that I would have been shouting madly at anyone who would have tried to convince me of the contrary, as I am now doing to my general audience (I have about 15,640 followers across TradingView, Twitter, StockTwits, Facebook and LinkedIn), most of whom must think that I am indeed mad and crazy.

However, I simply post what my CROW Code tells me to post, even when I can't even believe it. When I am asked about my opinion, I really do not have one, as I have learned to step aside and stand behind my "Model", or CROW Code ... CROW stands for "Constant Rescaling Of Wavelets", which looks for a conditions in the Model which defines the direction of the market, the strength behind price action (Predictive Analysis), and the extent to which price will move (forecasting) - Hence, this Predictive/Forecasting Model provides a range of probabilities, in addition to telling me whether the underlying timeframe is one that is in control of the rest.

I can be quite chatty on this subject, but it took me many years of research, testing on real price (I only test on real accounts, so that I can control all variables, including emotions) to finally come to the conclusion that one cannot posibly make a trading decision without feeling putting one whole reputation on the line. So, with this model, which literally takes all of the guesswork out and provides the consistency I need, I can say that I really do not have to have an opinion, a desire or a wish as to the market. It simply tells me three things: A "Watch", an "Alert" and a "Signal", right at the moment that is the most important development of the "CROW".

I hope this answers and exceeds, and perhaps preempts other questions you might have had. I am very passionate about what I do, and I am quite opiniated against what has kept me ignorant and in constant losing streaks. The one indicator that caused me the most pain has been price. The worse lessons I have gained from professional traders and coach were those that are the most published, and thus the least scrutinized.

I rant alot about price, and those who now feel the need to gag for hearing me say that "price is the carrot at the end of the stick held by institutional hands" might have to change their spotted shirts once more.

I am very appreciative of your inquiries and following my posts, so please feel free to comment and add further query. I will be shorter next time, now that I have hopefully divulge a bit more of my so called madness.