Asia makes modest gains in the Democracy Index 2018

The Economist Intelligence Unit released the 11th annual edition of its Democracy Index on January 9th. Since we began producing the index, Asia and Australasia has made more headway than any other region in advancing democracy. Although 2017 proved a tumultuous year in which the process of democratisation appeared to be going into reverse, the region made renewed—albeit modest—gains in 2018. The improvement in its score was driven by rising political participation. Nevertheless, Asian democracies continued to lag behind North America, Western Europe and Latin America.

Moving from 5.63 in 2017 to 5.67 in 2018, the Asia and Australasia region's score is still lower than its historical peak of 5.74, registered in 2015-16. It remained the region with the largest deviation in scores among its countries: top-scoring New Zealand (9.26) retained its 4th position in the global ranking of 167 countries, while persistent laggard North Korea (1.08), again came last. Australia and New Zealand remained the only two "full democracies" in Asia and Australasia. The slight improvement in the overall score in 2018 was driven by rising political participation across the region.

The most significant change in this category was seen in Malaysia (currently ranked 52nd) and Afghanistan (143rd). Both countries successfully held major elections in 2018. Voter turnout for Malaysia's general election in May was close to 80% and it delivered a surprise upset for the incumbent. In Afghanistan, voter turnout (3m of 8.8m registered voters cast their ballot) was healthy, considering the extreme threat to security from terrorist groups that oppose the country's democratic institutions. A majority of countries saw their ranking improve in 2018. It was the region's least democratic nations that saw the most significant improvements in rank in 2018. China rose nine places in the global ranking, although it remains classified as an "authoritarian" regime and its climb in the index mainly reflects the worsening scores of other countries in the index, particularly in Latin America and Eastern Europe.

Voting for change

The victory of opposition candidates in key elections in Asia in 2018 was another factor that served to bolster the region's scores, particularly for electoral process and pluralism. On May 9th Malaysia's opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) won a surprise victory in the general election, ousting the outgoing government from power after six decades, amid increasing voter frustration with corruption and rising costs of living. Following the PH's victory, veteran former leader Mahathir Mohamad took over as prime minister at the age of 92. Equally striking were developments in Pakistan. After a fiercely contested election, the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), or PML (N), lost power to the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by Imran Khan. The polls took a sour turn when the defeated parties alleged widespread election rigging. Although electoral malpractice has been a persistent feature in Pakistan, the scale of abuses on this occasion appears to have been substantially larger than during the 2013 election.

The advance of the opposition in Malaysia and Pakistan has resonance for the region's two largest democracies, India and Indonesia, both of which are due to hold elections in 2019. Although our core forecast is for the incumbents in these two countries to hold on to power, some of the concerns expressed by voters in Pakistan and Malaysia—such as the corruption and the rising cost of living—are similar to those evident in India and Indonesia.

Advances and setbacks

Among the democracies of East Asia, Japan experienced the largest increase in its overall score, owing to recent efforts to increase participation in the democratic process by women and young people. Hong Kong, by contrast, saw a slight decline in its overall score. The government's move to ban the pro-independence Hong Kong National Party and the election commission's increasingly aggressive screening out of candidates, based on their assumed support for greater autonomy or independence, represent major regressive steps for Hong Kong's democracy.

More generally, although Asia's score in the Democracy Index improved marginally in 2018—and even though there were clearly some bright spots, such as Malaysia—there were dampeners: rigged elections in Cambodia, the jailing of two local journalists belonging to the foreign press corps in Myanmar and legal attacks by the government of the Philippines against any form of opposition. These all serve as reminders that there is still a long way to go for democratic values to be entrenched in Asia.