Editorial: Heroin overdose numbers hard to trend

We’re not even halfway through 2014 yet, and already York County has seen more fatal heroin overdoses than all of last year.

Coroner Pam Gay recently confirmed 18 heroin deaths. In 2013, there were 15 heroin deaths all year in York County.

We know this year’s figures are pretty accurate because Ms. Gay has made the policy decision to conduct autopsies on overdose victims to confirm the drugs that caused the death -- thereby aiding police in bringing more serious charges against heroin suppliers.

In Adams County, three people have also overdosed from the drug in the past five years.

Elsewhere in the state and nation, however, reliable data on the heroin problem is more difficult to come by.

Look at the Pennsylvania heroin death statistics from 1999 through 2010 (incredibly, the most recent available from the Centers for Disease Control) and it’s hard discern a trend. Here are the numbers.

• 1999: 139

• 2000: 102

• 2001: 80

• 2002: 113

• 2003: 140

• 2004: 121

• 2005: 124

• 2006: 84

• 2007: 68

• 2008: 126

• 2009: 135

• 2010: 102

If that were a graph, it would look like a roller coaster.

Are we in the midst of a heroin epidemic or not?

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Or do these deaths ebb and flow sporadically?

The statistics highlight a significant problem in efforts to counter heroin use.

According to a recent Digital First Media report, statistics provided by the CDC are problematic -- a situation the CDC acknowledges.

The CDC reported 3,036 people died from heroin overdoses in the U.S. in 2010 -- but the agency acknowledges that number is likely at least 25 percent too low.

The problem is inconsistency in reporting from various jurisdictions.

In some jurisdictions, death certificates don’t indicate which drug was responsible for the fatal overdose.

In some jurisdictions, toxicology tests were not conducted during autopsies. And even then, it can be difficult to determine that heroin was the cause of death.

Couple all that with computer problems at the CDC (the 2011 figures won’t be released until this week) and lawmakers and law enforcers are flying blind.

Well, not exactly blind. The people on the front lines know what’s happening in their communities.

The police know that they’re seeing more heroin and more overdoses.

The coroners know that -- and conscientious ones like Ms. Gay take appropriate steps to document and counter this problem.

The people who do the work know that we’re in the midst of a heroin epidemic -- and they’re marshaling forces. In York County, for instance, prosecutors have begun charging dealers with crimes related to heroin overdoses.

That’s good -- and there’s no need to wait for the CDC stats to catch up to do any of that.

Still, good data leads to good public policy -- and to good decisions about where to spend limited public resources.

We need to get a clear statistical handle on the heroin problem nationally.