Putin Clears The Decks For Sochi Olympics With Pardons

In a surprise move near the end of his annual press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a pardon for rival, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, and clemency for the Pussy Riot girls remaining in prison. These pardons signal Putin’s absolute confidence in his personal power and the importance to him of the Russian winter Olympics to begin in Sochi in February. Putin has placed his personal prestige on the line with his $50 billion investment in building the Sochi Olympic infrastructure. He cannot let anything happen to spoil his big day.

Putin’s move was timed to counter the growing list of heads of state including Obama, Harper, Hollande and Merkel who are refusing to attend. His pardons gave his Western rivals less to complain about.

Left unresolved is the world gay and entertainment community’s boycott of the Sochi Olympics in protest over Russia’s anti-gay laws and Putin’s own anti-gay stance. Even with a turnabout in policy towards gays, Putin must fear the threat of pro-gay protests in Sochi by attendees, gay participating athletes and their sympathizers.

Putin’s promise to pardon Russia’s formerly richest man, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, came in a response to his request for clemency. Khodorkovsky is serving a second jail term in a far north camp and has spent the last decade in jail.Khodorkovsky had refused to plead for clemency to Putin. In his last sentencing in a Moscow court, he issued a forceful and eloquent condemnation of the proceedings, the corruption of Putin and his government and declared his innocence of the trumped up charges.

Khodorkovsky’s defiance and eloquent closing statement made him Putin’s most potent political rival at the time. Putin put him away to prevent regime opponents from coalescing around him. Conventional wisdom had it that Putin would jail Khodorkovsky for a third term rather than risk him being free at the time of the presidential elections in 2018. We do not know the terms of Khodorkovsky’s release. They may include a pledge of non-involvement in Russian politics.

After a shaky periodfollowing the disputed December 2011 parliamentary elections and his March 2012 presidential election, Putin obviously feels he is in command both at home and abroad. Abroad he has successfully protected two key client states – Iran and Syria – and he has outwitted the American president. Russia’s international reach expands as America’s contracts. He is fresh from talks with Ukraine’s Russian-leaning president and is confident he has won Ukraine into his Eurasian bloc. Keeping Ukraine came at a pretty penny -- more than $15 billion from Russia's small rainy-day reserve. At home, he has no internal rivals and his repressive measures have kept protesters from the streets. His only recognizable political adversary is lone blogger Alexei Navalny, whom he can imprison any time he wishes.

Vladimir Putin views the world and likes what he sees.

I am a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, at Stanford, and energy fellow and Cullen Professor of Economics at the University of Houston. I am also a research professor at the German Institute for Economic Research Berlin. My specialties are Russia and Comparative Eco...