Political Climate Warms to Lieberman's Favor

Published: October 12, 2006

CORRECTION APPENDED

Two months after a tumultuous Senate primary that was hailed as a watershed moment in American politics, Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut appears to be comfortably ahead of his challenger Ned Lamont in their general election rematch.

Democrats here are convinced that Mr. Lieberman stands a good chance of returning to the Senate as an independent, and many have reassured him that he will not be stripped of his seniority if he wins, according to people in several Senate offices, who were granted anonymity to speak of the sensitive situation amid an intense political climate.

Meanwhile, Mr. Lamont, the Democratic nominee, failed to pick up significant momentum early on and has not maintained the level of national excitement that his long-shot candidacy first drew when he roared to victory in the August primary. He pumped another $2 million into his campaign on Tuesday, bringing his total personal contribution to $6 million since the primary, and $10 million over all. And a new poll released on Wednesday showed Mr. Lamont behind by eight points.

Viewed by both parties as basically a battle between two Democrats, with a little-known Republican trailing badly in the polls, the race has become little more than a footnote overshadowed by the national struggle over control of Congress in a midterm season punctuated by scandal. Mr. Lamont is by no means out of the running, but he is not dominating the agenda of the campaign season nationally as he seemed poised to do this summer.

Three debates, scheduled for Oct. 16, 19 and 23, will provide the Republican, Alan Schlesinger, his first real chance to speak to voters statewide. If Mr. Schlesinger draws even 15 percent of the vote, strategists said, that could be a critical advantage for Mr. Lamont.

Connecticut pollsters and strategists working with all three candidates say that the race is far more volatile than the surveys indicate, with a variety of factors, including Mr. Schlesinger's debate performances and the presence of three competitive Republicans on the ballot for House races, potentially influencing turnout in unpredictable ways.

Mr. Lamont, for his part, is promising a new strategy this week to better coordinate his message that Mr. Lieberman abandoned his duties to the state, and try to turn his own inexperience into an asset by saying he can help change Washington. Whereas his earlier television advertisements focused on the war in Iraq and labeled Mr. Lieberman as a turncoat -- a message that conflicted with his campaign-trail emphasis on his own business experience -- the new ads will center on his own career and the overall agenda he would bring to the Senate.

A poll released by the University of Connecticut and The Hartford Courant on Wednesday showed the race narrowing slightly, with Mr. Lieberman ahead of Mr. Lamont by 8 percentage points and Mr. Schlesinger still stuck in single digits. The poll also showed that about 15 percent of the voters supporting each candidate said they might change their minds. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

''I don't know how you can use a traditional measurement to judge voting patterns in an election that is absolutely not traditional,'' said Tom Swan, Mr. Lamont's campaign manager. ''We had a slow start after the primary. It was a short-term mistake, but I do not believe that it is going to have long-term consequences. We have an excited base in a year where people are frustrated with a lot of things going on in Washington.

''Is it difficult to knock out a three-term incumbent with huge inroads? Of course it is,'' Mr. Swan added. ''But if there is any year that being an outsider is a good thing, 2006 is it.''

It certainly seemed that way on Aug. 8, when Mr. Lamont, a cable television executive whose previous political experience was a stint on the Greenwich Town Council, knocked out the Democratic Party's one-time vice-presidential candidate in a victory that was widely interpreted as a repudiation of Mr. Lieberman's support for the war in Iraq. But since then, Mr. Lamont's campaign advisers acknowledged, the challenger has done little to capitalize on his highly visible primary upset.

Despite the rush from many Democrats to endorse Mr. Lamont after his triumph -- only a handful chose personal loyalty to Mr. Lieberman over the Democratic nominee picked by voters -- some now quietly admit they would be satisfied to see their longtime colleague returned to Washington. But none of the Democrats would speak for attribution because of pressure to publicly appear supportive of their party's nominee, and they were granted anonymity so they could speak freely about their feelings toward Mr. Lieberman.

Some have publicly said Mr. Lieberman should be replaced at the top of the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee if the Democrats reclaim control. But several Senators, even some who are formally supporting Mr. Lamont, have privately told Mr. Lieberman they do not anticipate a movement to oust him, according to people in several Senate offices.

Correction: October 14, 2006, Saturday
An article on Thursday about a poll that showed Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut leading Ned Lamont, his Democratic challenger, misstated the amount of money that Mr. Lamont has contributed to his own campaign. The $2 million he added on Tuesday brought the total to $4.7 million (not $6 million) since the party's primary, and to $8.7 million (not $10 million) over all.