Nats, Reds Have Discussed Aroldis Chapman Trade

The Nationals and Reds have discussed a trade involving Aroldis Chapman, although no deal appears imminent, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets. (In a separate tweet, Morosi characterizes the talks as “very preliminary.”) Earlier today, Morosi wrote that the Nationals were looking for late-inning bullpen help. Chapman would obviously fit the bill, even though the Nats don’t have any specific need for a closer in particular, with Drew Storen performing well.

The 27-year-old Chapman has struggled with his control a bit more this year than in years past, with 5.6 BB/9. As usual, though, his eye-popping stuff and strikeout numbers (14.8 K/9) have been more than enough to paper over any minor control issues. Chapman’s fastball remains otherworldly, clocking in at an average velocity of 99.5 MPH this year, and his slider is very much a plus pitch as well.

Chapman is making $8.05MM this season. He is eligible for free agency after 2016. Given his dominance, he represents a bargain at his current salary. The prospect cost the Reds could command for him ought to be substantial, particularly given that he has a year of control remaining beyond this one.

Comments

I see a major 3/4 team trade going down I think the Dodgers pick up and extend Cueto and Chapman send Either and Guerrero with lee Schiebler and Sweeney and even Frias, The Reds flip Either to the Halos and Frazier to the Mets and pick up more prospects 3/4 players could equal a New Big Red Machine in 2 to 3 years

I like the way you think.. I would throw the Yankees into the mix ending up with Guerrero.. It will take a team like the Yankees to keep him from opting out.. Maybe Guerrero to the Yanks with Refsnyder and a pitcher coming back..

Yeah, no – that’s not going to happen. I’d guess Giolito and Lopez are pretty much off the table; they’re slated as the best chance to fill in for the upcoming loss of JZim – Fister – Strasburg. A combination of lower rated prospects, possibly. And if the Dodgers outbid that, so be it.

Solid starting point, but I figure it takes more than that. There’s a lot to like about Lopez, but two playoffs worth of the most-dynamic closer in the game has to bring back more. Even in the regular season, Chapman puts fannies in the seats, so his value is greater than even a very good closer.

If they do this. I would love to see Williams do what they said Girardi would do with Betances/Miller and not define one as SU and one as CL, and base it on matchups. Though I’d trust Chapman over any righty.

If you’re in the Nationals position, why not spend some prospect currency? Flags fly forever. I’m not saying unload everything, but while prospecting is fun and all as a fan of a team I would like them to make aggressive moves to win a championship.

It’s hard to say on both counts. K/9 is usually based on 1 IP per team game played. Under that criteria it’s Randy Johnson 13.4 in 2001 when he was 37 years old. He holds six of the top 10 season records.
As for top speed, it’s really impossible to tell except to say yes…for the “very modern” era. There is a new documentary out called “Fastball” that dispels some of the myths that pitchers from days gone by did not throw as hard. When Nolan Ryan was clocked at 100.9 in 1974 this speed was measured 10 feet before crossing home plate. Chapman’s “official” record of 105.1 was measured 50 feet from home plate. Using mathematics and physics they have gone back and look at some previously “clocked” pitches and found that Ryan’s (using the same Criteria of 50 ft) was actually traveling at 108.5 mph. Likewise, Bob Feller was clocked using US Army equipment designed to calculate the speed of artillery shells and he was clocked at 98.6 after the ball would have crossed home plate. When adjusted is actually 107.6. Walter Johnson was also clocked in a similar way and it was gauged to be 83.2 mph when actually it was 93.8.

The Chapman return is going to be really interesting whenever a trade happens. Last year, Miller ended up netting a top 100 prospect (who was having a decent year) and that was for a rental. Chapman is better, and has an extra year of control. If the Reds are smart, they let this one play out until the deadline when some teams decide to pay a ton in order to get themselves a valuable asset, and stop another contender from getting better (like when the O’s got Miller, thus stopping the Tigers from completing the deal they thought they had locked down).

Completely agree.. Chapman will break the bank when he gets traded.. I can see the Reds packaging him with Cueto and getting a top 10 prospect in return.. The Cubs got Russell for Samardzija and Hammel and together they are not even close to Cueto and Chapman.. If the Nats or the Dodgers pull off that trade they will be punching their ticket to the series.. But it is going to cost a Corey Seager or Giolito.. I guess we will see who wants the trophy most in the next month or so..

Except teams have also been reminded that “all in” moves rarely work – and that you CAN’T “punch your ticket to the series.” Just ask the A’s last year, the Phillies and their “Four Aces” rotation, the Brewers the year they got Sabathia. All in, and none got past the LDS.

I think the dodgers would pass on getting Chapman, they have a good closer in Jansen. They could make a trade for cueto but I think they pony up and trade for hamels. I have greinke opting out of his contract. Chapman to the nationals would be a good trade , a legit closer for them in then 9th that can throw 96-100. It would be a missing piece for a world series run, but who would the nationals have to give up is the question, my bet it would have to start with Giolito or A.J Cole imo.

I agree with you that Grienke will opt out.. However, just because he opts out doesn’t mean that he won’t resign with the Dodgers.. Sabathia did the same thing a couple of years ago and Grienke is a proven winner for the Dodgers.. Sending the prospect package to the Phillies to get Hamels doesn’t make sense for the Dodgers.. They throw money all over the place and waiting until the offseason so they can use some of that money to get Cueto or Zimmerman is a bit more likely.. They paid a couple of million to the Orioles in getting that extra draft pick this year.. In that you can see that they value prospects highly and money is an afterthought.. So, I see Grienke opting out and the Dodgers resigning him and then also making a move on either Cueto, Zimmerman or Samardzija, whichever one of them gets traded and looses draft pick compensation will be who they target.. I don’t have a crystal ball, but that is how I interpret the moves they have made since the change in the front office..
I agree with you that Chapman fits best with the Nationals, and that they will have to give up Giolito to get him.. The problem is that Chapman is a reliever.. Paying that high of a price to get a reliever isn’t viable.. Even to get the best in baseball.. That is why I assumed they would trade Cueto in a package with Chapman.. Something like Cueto and Chapman for Giolito & Fister.. The Nationals improve a bit with Cueto over Fister and get Chapman.. The Reds could then flip Fister to another contender (Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs) for another good prospect..
Just some random speculation and I think we see things the same way.. We just differ on how it will be done..

the only problem with the reds making trades is jocketty will be the man doing it which means the reds will end up with more of the just not ready prospects they already have. they need to get guys who can come in and make an impact now not 3-5 years from now. they are doing the smart thing by giving the young arms a shot now why not give at least 1 of the not ready for prime time players a shot in left field in this lost season? rodriguez deserves a shot over the triple headed monster of infielders parading as outfielders they have out there now batting .200.

First, Chapman nets a QO after 2016. So you’re talking a 1st rd 25th pick talent on that fact alone. Add his talents and you’re at a top 40 Prospect as the headliner. Then you throw in likely a very talented RP to replace Chapman who’s likely not going to crack a top 100 ranking in prospect ranks.

First off the Reds are not going to unload one of the elite closers in all of baseball for “a few lower level prospects” and who by the way is under contract in 2016. Not only that, Chapman is a big draw in Cincinnati and they aren’t going to just give him away. Unless the Reds get a top prospect as a center piece Chapman stays in Cincinnati at least until mid 2016.Second I keep hearing Mets fans proposing Todd Frazier trade proposals. That’s a pipe dream. He’s not eligible for arbitration until after 2016 and can’t be a free agent until after 2018. Frazier isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. If the Reds do move Chapman they would be smart to add Jay Bruce in the deal to get better prospects. My guess knowing the logic of the Reds owner and GM is Chapman stays put.