As a consequence, we can build our scenarios with a cautious approach regarding French and German contributions. By taking into account the weight of each economy in the euro area (Germany: 27%; France: 21%; Italy: 18%; Spain: 12% and Belgium: 5%), we get the following forecasts:

Growth Forecasts

Scenario

Pessimistic

Central

Optimistic

Germany

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

France

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

Italy

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

Spain (1st publication)

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

Belgium (1st publication)

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

Others

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

Growth Contributions

Scenario

Pessimistic

Central

Optimistic

Germany

0.054%

0.081%

0.105%

France

0.021%

0.042%

0.063%

Italy

-0.018%

0.000%

0.018%

Spain (1st publication)

0.012%

0.012%

0.012%

Belgium (1st publication)

0.015%

0.015%

0.015%

Others

0.000%

0.017%

0.034%

Total

0.084%

0.0167%

0.0230%

Total (rounded)

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

In the central scenario, based on the main central banks’ expectations, Eurozone growth could reach 0.2% in Q3 2013.