Tropical Storm Alberto forms off the South Carolina coast

The first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Tropical Storm Alberto formed this afternoon off the coast of South Carolina--a little going-away present for outgoing NHC director Bill Read, who retires on June 1! Alberto has the potential to hit North Carolina as early as Monday, but since the storm is so small, it would only affect a small area of the coast with high winds and heavy rain. Upper level winds out of the southwest are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear over Alberto, and the storm is over the warm waters of Gulf Stream, which are 81°F (27°C), just above the 26°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. The system is tangled up with an upper level trough of low pressure, which is pumping cold, dry air into the storm, slowing development. The dry air impinging on Alberto from the southwest can be seen in water vapor satellite loops. Heavy rain showers from Alberto are located about 50 miles offshore of the coast of South Carolina, as seen on Wilmington radar. At times today, 93L has had a cloud-free center resembling an eye on radar, but this was not a true eye.

Forecast for AlbertoRain showers from Alberto are likely to move onshore between Charleston and Wilmington Saturday night and Sunday, bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the coast. The storm is too small to cause major flooding problems, particularly since the coast is under moderate to severe drought. Alberto's rains will not be plentiful enough to cause significant drought relief, except perhaps over a small region near the coast, where (and if) the storm makes landfall. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, through Monday, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Since the storm is very small, it is highly vulnerable to even a modest increase in wind shear or dry air, which could rapidly disrupt it. Steering currents are weak, and Alberto will wander off the coast of South Carolina through Sunday, before getting caught up by a trough of low pressure on Monday which should lift it out to the northeast. The moderate wind shear and dry air are likely to keep Alberto below hurricane strength. NHC is giving Alberto a 5 - 10% chance of reaching hurricane strength before dissipating on Thursday as it scoots northeast out to sea.

Alberto in historical contextAlberto is earliest-forming tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since Ana in 2003, which formed on April 21. Alberto is one of only three Atlantic tropical storms to form in May in the past 31 years. The others were Tropical Storm Arthur of 2008, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 1981. There was also a subtropical storm, Andrea, that formed in May of 2007. Formation of an early season tropical storm from an old frontal boundary, like occurred with Alberto, is not a harbinger of an active hurricane season--it's more of a random occurrence. Early season storms that form in the Caribbean, though, often signal that a busy hurricane season may occur.

Trillions of becquerels per day still being emitted from Fukushima Daiichi — Radioactive steam continues (VIDEO)

Published: May 20th, 2012 at 12:12 pm ET

If You Love This Planet RadioMay 8, 2012

I would say there are billions, actually trillions, of becquerels per day being released airborne, mainly from Units 2 and 3.

Actually on cold nights you can still the steam coming off those reactors, its not just steam its radioactive steam.

Something on the order of trillions of becquerels per day… trillions of disintegrations per second per day are being released even now.

Dr. Helen Caldicott: So what you’re really saying Arnie Gundersen is that the ocean will continue to be contaminated, kind of for the rest of time. Because there’s no foreseeable way to prevent water leaking out of containment vessels continuously into the ocean… We’re talking about continual contamination of the Pacific Ocean.

Apparently a tornado touched down here in Pinellas County not far from where I got pelted with hail, that would explain the concentration of power flashes last night and emergency vehicles headed in the vicinity where it occurred. Apparently there was no tornado warning either. I've actually seen that happen more than once, I think sometimes that the vortex is often shallow in such situations, lacking a large meso with the apparent thunderstorm ,therefore the tornado was able to occur without enough radar signature to pick up, at least I would think so. I was tracking the thunderstorm on radar and didn't see any obvious sign of rotation that would warrant a tornado touch down, yet there you have it, a 10% chance of rain turned into a powerful thunderstorm that also produced a weak tornado without warning, lol.

Considering the lack of radar signature, I would certainly say no blame can be placed on the NWS for not issuing a warning.

Quoting SLU:NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., today announced Rick Knabb, Ph.D., as the next director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. Knabb will start his duties on June 4.

“When hurricanes threaten our coastal communities, those in harm’s way look to NOAA’s National Hurricane Center for life-saving information,” said Lubchenco. “Rick personifies that calm, clear and trusted voice that the nation has come to rely on. Rick will also lead our hurricane center team and work closely with federal, state and local emergency management authorities to ensure the public is prepared to weather the storm.”

Knabb returns to NOAA after most recently serving as the on-air tropical weather expert for The Weather Channel in Atlanta since May 2010. Prior to that, Knabb was deputy director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, and before that, he had a distinguished career at the National Hurricane Center in Miami as a senior hurricane specialist and the science and operations officer.

Knabb succeeds Bill Read who retires June 2. “I thank Bill Read for his tireless work throughout his distinguished career with the National Weather Service, including more than four years as director of the National Hurricane Center overseeing 63 tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin alone,” added Lubchenco.

Born just outside of Chicago, Knabb grew up in Coral Springs, Fla., near Ft. Lauderdale, and in Katy, Texas in suburban Houston. He earned a bachelor’s degree in Atmospheric Science from Purdue University and holds a master’s degree and Ph.D. in Meteorology from Florida State University.

"I'm ready to reunite with the talented staff at the National Hurricane Center and to work with all of our partners to prepare everyone for the next hurricane,” said Knabb. “Personal preparedness will be critically important, including for my own family and home."

The National Hurricane Center is a component of the National Weather Service’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The Center’s mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous tropical weather and by increasing understanding of these hazards, enabling communities to be safe from tropical weather threats. The National Hurricane Center is co-located with the National Weather Service Miami-South Florida forecast office on the campus of Florida International University.

Rick Knabb, Ph.D., selected to lead NOAA’s National Hurricane Center

The National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. It operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Working with partners, the National Weather Service is building a Weather-Ready Nation to support community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook , Twitter and our other social media channels.

NOTE:convection starting to grow on SW quadrant and NE quadrant. Pressures are weak but as this system grow pressures should drop. Shear is running at 20kt-25kt, should also note. Shear is expected to drop to 10kt-15kt in 24 hours, and 5-10kt in 48 hours.$AM

Where did you get this from ? Anyway, NHC has the low back on the map and concvection is increasing.

It's not on the Plan of the Day which has been inactive since winter storm flying ended end of March, though that could update any moment. Usually a center fix would be 2pm est so I'll guess that. It may be done as a Non-Task Mission..Nothing is flying there yet, you can watch for that here..

NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., today announced Rick Knabb, Ph.D., as the next director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. Knabb will start his duties on June 4.

“When hurricanes threaten our coastal communities, those in harm’s way look to NOAA’s National Hurricane Center for life-saving information,” said Lubchenco. “Rick personifies that calm, clear and trusted voice that the nation has come to rely on. Rick will also lead our hurricane center team and work closely with federal, state and local emergency management authorities to ensure the public is prepared to weather the storm.”

Knabb returns to NOAA after most recently serving as the on-air tropical weather expert for The Weather Channel in Atlanta since May 2010. Prior to that, Knabb was deputy director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, and before that, he had a distinguished career at the National Hurricane Center in Miami as a senior hurricane specialist and the science and operations officer.

Knabb succeeds Bill Read who retires June 2. “I thank Bill Read for his tireless work throughout his distinguished career with the National Weather Service, including more than four years as director of the National Hurricane Center overseeing 63 tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin alone,” added Lubchenco.

Born just outside of Chicago, Knabb grew up in Coral Springs, Fla., near Ft. Lauderdale, and in Katy, Texas in suburban Houston. He earned a bachelor’s degree in Atmospheric Science from Purdue University and holds a master’s degree and Ph.D. in Meteorology from Florida State University.

"I'm ready to reunite with the talented staff at the National Hurricane Center and to work with all of our partners to prepare everyone for the next hurricane,” said Knabb. “Personal preparedness will be critically important, including for my own family and home."

The National Hurricane Center is a component of the National Weather Service’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The Center’s mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous tropical weather and by increasing understanding of these hazards, enabling communities to be safe from tropical weather threats. The National Hurricane Center is co-located with the National Weather Service Miami-South Florida forecast office on the campus of Florida International University.

Rick Knabb, Ph.D., selected to lead NOAA’s National Hurricane Center

The National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. It operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Working with partners, the National Weather Service is building a Weather-Ready Nation to support community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook , Twitter and our other social media channels.

NOTE:convection starting to grow on SW quadrant and NE quadrant. Pressures are weak but as this system grow pressures should drop. Shear is running at 20kt-25kt, should also note. Shear is expected to drop to 10kt-15kt in 24 hours, and 5-10kt in 48 hours.$AM

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:Skye, how do you see 92E,that has taken an eternal time to develop?

That twist is huge..that's really slowing development, well that & it's feeding off the really long line of troughiness that is feeding Gulf of Honduras & developing gale in the Atlantic. Til that splits up & we see where splits first & how much each area gets it's hard to say a definite when. There is also a bit of energy moving at it from the east, might be disruptive at first. 93E looks capable of eventually digesting it though, could be the kick it needs to get free. I'll give it 50% chance.

THE CENTER OF ALBERTO HAS BECOME MORE EXPOSED THIS MORNING...AND THEDEEPEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THESYSTEM. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALLSUGGESTING AN INTENSITY AROUND 35 KT...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITYIS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR NOW. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANEHUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...ATWHICH TIME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE.

ALBERTO APPEARS TO HAVE AT LEAST THREE STRIKES AGAINST ANYRE-INTENSIFICATION. FIRST...DEWPOINTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AREROUGHLY 50 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY INGESTINGSOME OF THIS DRY AIR. SECOND...THE CENTER IS MOVING WEST OF THEGULF STREAM OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST. AND THIRD...UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTEDTO INCREASE OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIALFORECAST THEREFORE KEEPS ALBERTO AT LOW-END TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTHTHROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OCCURRING ONTHURSDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY VIRTUALLY ALL OF THEINTENSITY GUIDANCE. ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY72 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACTTIMING OF THAT TRANSITION.

A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES HAS CAUSED ALBERTOTO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THE CURRENTMOTION IS 250/5 KT. THE BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY POSITIONEDOVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLIDING EASTWARDTODAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THEUPPER MIDWEST. ALBERTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGHTONIGHT...BUT THE EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TOACCELERATE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD BEGINNING ON MONDAY. THERE ISVERY LITTLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE CLUSTER OF OTHER MODELSAND SHOWS A SLOWER...MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECASTIS THEREFORE A LITTLE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MULTI-MODELCONSENSUS ON DAYS 3 AND 4.

Quoting cg2916:I wake up to a better, but still weak, Alberto. Doesn't look like this thing's going to do much. However, for some reason, some of the models predict this thing to get a little stronger in 48 or so hours. Will be interesting to see.

It's on the border of a 27C hot pocket, which is easily the warmest water it's encountered.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OFSOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OFGEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTSISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FORINFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OFSOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OFGEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTSISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FORINFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

I wake up to a better, but still weak, Alberto. Doesn't look like this thing's going to do much. However, for some reason, some of the models predict this thing to get a little stronger in 48 or so hours. Will be interesting to see.