Economists Annoyed By Democracy

Given how things have been going—perhaps best exemplified by this—you might be surprised to learn that more than four in five economists say this is a particularly uncertain election. A “Mount Everest of uncertainty,” according to one, even though the most important question in the election—“Who will be president?”—seems very close to having an nearly definitive answer. The problem is, what does a Hillary Clinton presidency mean? No one really knows, especially since it is likely to coincide with the continuing Paul Ryan speakership and all of the legislative gridlock that has entailed.

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“Never have the options for policy been less well understood in an election cycle,” said Amy Crews Cutts, chief economist for the credit-rating firm Equifax.

Even if Mrs. Clinton wins the election, she seems likely to have a House of Representatives still under Republican control, which has shown little inclination to embrace the policies she has discussed thus far…. Further adding to the uncertainty is the fate of the Senate, which either party could potentially win in November.

“The range of potential political outcomes is much greater in the abstract,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP. “The market has doubts about how that uncertainty will translate into concrete action.”