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Events

Monday, November 21, 2011

Major Indices back in negative territory for 2011

The Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, & Russell 2000 are all in negative territory for 2011...the Dow 30 and Nasdaq 100 fell back into negative territory after today's close, while the S&P 500 crossed below several days ago, and the Russell 2000 never made it above. The percentage comparison chart below (which begins at the open on January 3rd, 2011) shows that the Russell 2000 is still the weakest of the four major indices.

Below is a Daily chartgrid of their corresponding e-mini futures indices...the YM, ES, NQ & TF. Price closed today on the YM, NQ & TF at/near a level of support (either the 50 sma (red) or the 2011 opening price, or both), while the ES has fallen below any of these levels. They all fell on increased volumes today.

The 1-day 1-minute percentage comparison chart below of the Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, & Russell 2000 shows that the Dow 30 was the weakest on today's price action (an unusual event)...whether or not this is forecasting a larger exit to come from the blue chip stocks is something I'll be keeping a close eye on over the next days/weeks ahead.

My "Take" on Current Affairs as of July 12th...

*GREECE -- I don't think we'll see a final resolution with their requested bailout package from the EU until after the next Fed mtg. on July 28/29th -- UPDATE: Agreement reached among leaders July 13th, but needs to be ratified by respective governments

*IRAN-- I don't think we'll see a final agreement on the nuclear talks with the P5 +1 until after the next Fed mtg. on July 28/29th --

UPDATE: Agreement reached among negotiators July 14th, but needs to be ratified by respective governments

*CHINA-- We may not see the next major leg down on the Shanghai Index until after the next Fed mtg. on July 28/29th

So, world market participants may be in a "buy-the-rumour-sell-the-news" mood until then...making for quite whippy and volatile overnight and intraday moves above and below their current price levels in major markets, in the meantime, before establishing new trends for 2015. Stay tuned for updates...