Despite Georgia loss, Texas Democrats confident about next year

WASHINGTON — Texas Democrats in Congress remain confident about the 2018 elections despite a stinging loss in a Georgia congressional race last week that highlighted a string of deflating defeats.

A remark by Rep. Filemon Vela, D-Brownsville, that only an “idiot” would believe that Democrats can recapture the House under Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi was an isolated eruption in a delegation resolute about maintaining united opposition to Trump administration policies.

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“I think some of the comments are very harmful and only serve to encourage our opponents,” said Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-San Antonio.

Special elections often get overinterpreted, but the GOP success in holding a seat in the Atlanta suburbs may have reached new heights in excessive commentary.

Republicans trumpeted the 3.9-percentage-point victory by Karen Handel over Democratic newcomer Jon Ossoff in the turf once represented by GOP luminary Newt Gingrich as another sign of their expanding fortunes and proof that Democrats are clueless when it comes to taking on President Donald Trump in the new political landscape.

It was a reality check for Democrats, who invested upward of $25 million in the contest at the behest of the party’s restless base. A San Antonio phone bank assisted Ossoff’s campaign.

Despair by some in the party was compounded by other losses in other contests to replace Trump nominees in South Carolina, Montana and Kansas.

Ossoff’s centrist strategy — heavy on fiscal responsibility and light on taking on Trump — added to the second-guessing from Democrats girded for a pitched fight to regain the House.

Nonetheless, many Democrats looking ahead to 2018 took solace in fundamentals of midterm elections and the reality that the four special elections were fought in districts they seldom have won.

“I don’t think this is the time to be debating among ourselves,” he said, referring to a call from a small segment of House Democrats to bounce Pelosi, D-Calif., from leadership. “We can always talk about that after 2018. But right now, we have to stay focused, and if President Trump keeps giving us a lift, I think we’re going to be very successful.”

Democrats, who need a net pickup of 24 seats to win the House, are buoyed by knowing that the party of a president typically loses seats in midterm elections — an average of nearly 30 seats over the past 21 midterms. Much of that history was recorded before the extreme gerrymandering of recent times.

“There is no doubt that the House is in play,” Rep. Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told reporters Thursday while trying to buck up demoralized Democrats.

Lujan supplemented his words with polls showing support eroding for Republicans in more than two dozen House districts, presumably because of Trump.

Analysts note that a president’s popularity often is a key factor in congressional contests.

“The most important leading indicator for 2018 is not the special elections but President Trump’s approval rating, which is 40 percent or lower,” said Alan Abramowitz of Emory University. “That’s a big, bright red warning sign that is flashing.”

Abramowitz, author of several books on elections, recalled that George W. Bush’s positive rating hovered at about 40 percent in 2006, when Democrats gained 31 seats, twice what they needed to regain control of the chamber.

“If Trump’s approval ratings remain that low or go even lower, I think Democrats are going to have a pretty good year in terms of recruitment and have a shot at picking up the House and several governorships,” he said.

The view of Trump could well improve if the president enables Republicans to succeed in the goals of repealing the Affordable Care Act and revising the income tax code in ways that lower rates and simplify filing.

Yet Democrats thus far haven’t settled on a strategy, as the congressional race in Georgia suggested. The loss fueled an internal debate over what message Democrats ought to present to voters.

“There isn’t a message right now, but so what?” said Simon Rosenberg, president and founder of NDN, a Democratic-aligned think tank in Washington

“Democrats don’t need to have a message at this point other than they’re fighting to stop the worst excesses of the Trump agenda. That’s all they can do. There’s time to develop a message,” he said.

Democrats are banking that pass or fail, the GOP’s newly drawn health insurance legislation unveiled in the Senate last week, with its Medicaid reductions and effective tax cuts for high-income earners, will provide plenty of campaign fodder.

As ranking Democrat on the House Ways and Means tax-writing panel, Doggett will have opportunities to convey his party’s opposition when the GOP gets serious about tax reform, probably in the fall.

Doggett said he thinks that Democrats’ main focus needs to be the economy and encouraging job growth. He also believes that fiscal responsibility needs to be a pillar of the Democratic message.

“Republicans seem to use fiscal responsibility only as an excuse to undermine social and educational programs that they’ve been opposed to for other reasons, to forget it when they come up with huge tax bills,” he said.

Cuellar said that in the aftermath of Georgia, Democrats need to make certain they recruit the best candidates to carry the party’s message in districts regarded as winnable.

With Barack Obama gone from office, Democrats have no obvious leader to set an agenda. Pelosi would have been better able to fill that role if she hadn’t fallen victim to routine GOP demonization.

In Georgia, voters saw the latest round of ads tying the Democratic candidate with Pelosi, similar to what Republicans and aligned super PACS have aired in recent campaigns.

“We already have Nancy Pelosi as our congresswoman,” the announcer in one such ad said. “Now you’re going to give us Jon Ossoff as our congressman.”

After the Georgia election, the National Republican Congressional Committee sent out a mocking video that began: “To someone who has been such a wonderful contributor, thank you Nancy Pelosi.”

Trump got into the act with a tweet that included Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

“I certainly hope the Democrats do not force Nancy P out. That would be very bad for the Republican Party — and please let Cryin’ Chuck stay!” Trump wrote.

U.S. Rep. Steve Stivers of Ohio, chairman of the National Republican Committee, remarked that while Pelosi “motivates” Republicans, the Democrats’ problem has to do with their message.

“They are talking about distractions, they’re talking about obstruction, they’re talking about resistance, while Karen Handel was talking about fixing our economy, getting people back to work, rebuilding our infrastructure and fixing health care,” he said on Fox News.

Her words signaled that she plans to stick around, which appears acceptable to a majority of Democrats who remain hopeful about 2018.

“I don’t think divisions are as great as perhaps have been reported,” Doggett said. “We need to stay focused on getting a Democratic House majority next year. That’s the one check we have on Trump and the excesses that are out there.”