SANDY BRINGS THE CAMPAIGN TO A STANDSTILL—Breaking from Jay Carney: “Due to deteriorating weather conditions in the Washington, DC area, the President will not attend today's campaign event in Orlando, Florida. The President will return to the White House to monitor the preparations for and early response to Hurricane Sandy.”

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Good morning from MANSFIELD, Ohio—Mitt Romney had not plan to overnight here in Mid-Ohio, directly between Columbus and Cleveland, until Hurricane Sandy reared her ugly head. She’s the October Surprise no one predicted in our contest last month. More below on the storm’s impact…

OBAMA RETAKES 1-POINT NATIONAL LEAD—With eight days to go until the election, President Obama has recaptured a narrow national lead, riding increased support from women and an edge in early voting. Our new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll — taken from last Monday through Thursday — shows Obama up 49-48, a 3-point swing from last week. Obama leads among women by 11 (54-43). Romney leads among men by 12 (55-43). My story: http://goo.gl/EIoMo.

Good news for Democrats: Obama enters the final full week of the campaign with a 50 percent job approval rating, 51 percent personal favorability rating and 54 percent expecting him to win regardless of who they are supporting. He’s up 8 points among those who have already voted (53-45), with early voters already representing 15 percent of the electorate. Democratic analysis from Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff and Kristin Pondel (2 pages): http://goo.gl/2OrV0.

Good news for Republicans: Romney maintains a major intensity advantage: Among those who say they are “extremely likely” to vote, Romney’s up 9 (53-44). The GOP nominee is winning independents by 10 (50-40). 54 percent disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy. Romney is favored by 5 points (51-46), both on which candidate will better grow the economy and create more jobs. GOP analysis from Ed Goes and Brian Nienaber (5 pages): http://goo.gl/Pv2v1.

BUT IT WILL PROBABLY COME DOWN TO OHIO—Romney spent yesterday in red and rural portions of the Buckeye State, trying to run up his margins with the base. But he also sharpened his closing argument, emphasizing his ability to work with Democrats. “I know there’s good Democrats that love America just like we do,” Romney said in the small town of Celina. “I want to reach across the aisle to them…We can’t change course unless we change the way Washington’s working.” He even made an explicit play for 2008 Hillary voters. http://goo.gl/7wJqM

First look—Romney campaign calls the race “a dead heat”: “Team Romney Ohio knocked on 669,534 doors over the last two weeks, and the crowds at Romney’s rallies have just been massive,” Ohio State Director Scott Jennings writes in a memo. “We can’t print walk books fast enough for people who want to elect a real leader to the White House. We see momentum in five key areas: polling, grassroots voter contact, newspaper endorsements, events, and early-voting statistics.” Read: http://goo.gl/nFZZe.

Latest Ohio numbers—PPP (D) out last night has Obama up 4 (51-47). More than a third of those surveyed had voted early, and those voters went to Obama by a 63-36 margin: http://bit.ly/PBsU7L. A consortium of Ohio newspapers released a poll yesterday showing the race tied at 49: http://goo.gl/a91Tq. CNN on Friday had Obama up 50-46: http://goo.gl/KJ2DT. The Ohio newspaper poll this morning shows Sherrod Brown up just 51-47 over Josh Mandel: http://goo.gl/kCg0b.

Romney’s unreleased auto bailout ad: The Obama campaign captured an unreleased Romney ad that aired in Toledo Saturday. “Romney has a plan to help the auto industry,” the narrator says. “He’s supported by Lee Iacocca and the Detroit News. Obama took GM and Chrysler into bankruptcy, and sold Chrysler to Italians who are going to build Jeeps in China. Mitt Romney will fight for every American job." Chicago calls this a desperate recognition that the auto issue is hurting them (watch the ad): http://goo.gl/2C2m4. Steve Rattner, Obama’s auto czar, bracketed Romney’s visit to Findlay yesterday, per the Toledo Blade: http://goo.gl/n79kI.

FIRST LOOK—CARMONA HAS PAPERWORK TO CHALLENGE KYL CLAIM: Retiring Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl recently told the Weekly Standard that he had only "one phone conversation with [Richard Carmona] when the Republican Party was looking for a candidate to run in the congressional seat." But Carmona has a handwritten letter from Kyl, postmarked Feb. 17, 2005, that describes a meeting in Phoenix in which Kyl thanks Carmona for “all you did for me in Phoenix last week,” saying that “for someone who’s ‘not so political’ you sure leave an audience in awe!” Kyl added, “I look forward to continuing our discussion at your convenience.” Kyl also hosted Carmona for breakfast in Phoenix to discuss running for office in late 2005. See the letter, which will be shared with other news outlets today: http://goo.gl/ItUjf. This comes in the wake of a new ad by Kyl and John McCain for Jeff Flake, in which they attack Carmona as “shameful” for using old video clips of them praising him when he was a Republican appointee: http://politi.co/PBtfYc.

As Bill Clinton remembers the time Heidi Heitkamp beat his administration in court, another apparent ex-girlfriend of “pro-life” Tennessee congressman Scott DesJarlais talks to the press and conservative Catholics think they can help put Pennsylvania in play, here’s POLITICO’s Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

OBAMA in DC: Before the Orlando announcement, the campaign had already canceled his Virginia Beach rally today and a Colorado Springs event scheduled for tomorrow.

ROMNEY in OHIO, IOWA and WISCONSIN: Romney canceled his Sunday events in Virginia and joined Paul Ryan’s bus tour through Ohio instead, and he’s canceled his trip to New Hampshire tomorrow to campaign in Iowa and Ohio instead. He starts today with a rally in Avon Lake, Ohio, at 11:50 a.m. ET. Then he flies to the Quad Cities for a 3:30 CT rally in Davenport, Iowa. He finishes the day in Wisconsin with a 7:40 CT in West Allis. He’s back in Ohio on Tuesday, with a rally in Lima (near where they make tanks) and Kettering (where John McCain will stump with him).

BIDEN in OHIO: Biden’s rally in Keene, N.H., for today has been canceled, and he’ll take Obama’s place in Youngstown at a 3:30 rally with Bill Clinton. Chicago advised Wednesday stops in Ocala and Sarasota, Florida, last night.

RYAN in FLORIDA: Three rallies in Florida: 2:05 p.m. ET in Fernandina Beach, 5:40 in Melbourne and 8 in Lakeland. He’s going to Colorado on Tuesday, with stops in Greeley and Cañon City.

MICHELLE in IOWA: Rallies at 1:25 p.m. CT in Iowa City and 4:35 p.m. in Sioux City.

ANN in MICHIGAN: 1:35 ET event at the Park Place Hotel in Traverse City and 4:10 visit to a Grand a victory center.

JILL in COLORADO: Speeches at 11 MT in Colorado Springs and 1:45 in Fort Collins.

COUNTDOWN: 8 days.

PRESIDENTIAL MESSAGING—OBAMA VIDEO RECAPS TWO-DAY TOUR: The Obama campaign will release a 7-minute video recapping the president’s whirlwind two-day tour around the country last week, following Obama behind the scenes and highlighting clips from some of his speeches. Watch: http://bit.ly/PBrhXM

SANDY’S IMPACT—FIVE FACTS OF LIFE from Jon Allen:

1) It’s hard to see how the storm helps Romney.

2) Obama has a natural advantage because he’s president…unless he makes an unforced error.

3) No one can watch TV if their power’s out. So much for inundating them with TV ads.

4) Most of the states in Sandy’s path don’t have early voting, except of the absentee-ballot variety. Maryland, a state Obama will win easily, has closed its early-voting program on Monday. Virginia allows early voting, but only for residents who have a reason they can’t vote on Election Day.

5) This might throw a slight wrench in Obama’s turnout operation. North Carolina has early voting, but the bulk of the state is likely to be spared. If transportation and power are out in Virginia’s northern suburbs and coastal cities for more than a week, Obama could have a turnout problem on his hands. http://goo.gl/2vaMr

THE STAKES—FIVE QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD—

(1) What’s the unemployment rate that pops at 8:30 a.m. Friday? Ed Goeas says it could be like the 2000 revelation of Bush’s DWI for Obama if the number goes back up to 8 percent.

(2) Which states don’t get visited? Talk of an expanding map is mostly bluster, and the storm makes it harder to imagine Pennsylvania getting resources. Ann is in Michigan today, though, and it will raise eyebrows if Mitt goes.

(3) Does split-screen coverage of campaign events and Sandy’s aftermath make Romney look callous? Will another week pass with no network interviews and not fielding questions from the reporters following him?

(4) How many of his small-bore attacks on Romney will Obama drop this week to look more presidential, as the moment demands?

(5) The Richard Mourdock rape firestorm has finally lost its national oxygen, but to what extent will the story disappear from local Indiana media too?

GALLUP – ROMNEY LAUDED FOR BUSINESS ACUMEN, OBAMA FOR PERSONAL TRAITS: When voters are asked to volunteer them, Obama’s perceived strengths are excellent speaking/communication skills (11%) and "helping the less fortunate" or being "for the people." Romney's perceived strengths tend more toward his economic experience, including being a "good businessman" (16%) and being "good at handling finances/budgets" (4%). 11% cite his economic policies. http://goo.gl/BdmyT

PPP (D)—

FLORIDA: Obama up 1 (49-48). The poll also found that Romney is winning independents in the state by 7 points, 50-43. http://bit.ly/PBsyy8

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama up 2 (49-47). Obama holds onto an 18-point lead among women in the state, 57 percent to 39 percent. http://bit.ly/PBsBdh

“INDEPENDENT WOMEN'S VOICES” LAUNCHES 'BOYFRIEND' ADS: The conservative group is going up with a $7.4 million digital ad buy that plays on the Obama campaign's Lena Dunham "first time" video. In both ads, two women talk about the race as if they're talking about problems with their boyfriends. "I miss the way he used to make me feel," one of them says. "He's never accountable, he's so condescending, he always has someone else to blame," another woman says. The online ads will run in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin through Election Day. Watch: http://bit.ly/QPzrZy; http://bit.ly/QPzuEw.

KENTUCKY HOUSE—KID SCARES SENIOR IN CHANDLER MASK: A boy wears a Halloween mask designed to look just like incumbent Democrat Ben Chandler in a Halloween-themed ad for Republican Andy Barr. “I wanted to be something really scary for Halloween this year,” he says. “I saw him on TV trying to scare old people, like my grandma. And then Chandler was picking on coal miners. I know he’s done some freaky things in Washington. Chandler hangs out with President Obama, taking people’s money like its candy.” The spot was produced by Strategy Group for Media: http://goo.gl/MAoPX.

MASSACHUSETTS SENATE – BROWN AD LAYS OUT ‘THE CHOICE’: A new ad out from Scott Brown’s campaign this morning presents a side-by-side comparison of Brown and his Democratic opponent Elizabeth Warren. From the script: “The Choice. Scott Brown: rated one of the most bipartisan senators. Elizabeth Warren? Fiercely partisan. Scott Brown: low taxes for everyone. Warren supports higher payroll and higher small business taxes. … The only choice for taxpayers: Scott Brown.” Watch the ad: http://bit.ly/PBqUws

MISSOURI SENATE—MCCASKILL RUNS “LEGITIMATE RAPE” AD: The 30-second spot includes the clip of Todd Akin in August. Woman 1: “Todd Akin is scary.” Woman 2: “His statement about ‘legitimate rape’ is beyond the pale.” Woman 3: “He has no idea how it even works and he wants to legislate about it?” Woman 4: “I worry about the misinformation he evidently believes.” Woman 1: “I am afraid of what he’ll do in Congress.” Woman 5: “All women in Missouri need to think what happens to their rights.” Two of the women from their earlier rape survivor ads appeared with McCaskill on the trail yesterday (one in St. Louis, another in Kansas City) at events aimed toward women. http://goo.gl/qbHCy

NORTH DAKOTA SENATE—BILL CLINTON CUTS RADIO AD FOR HEITKAMP: 42 is holding a rally in Fargo at 7 p.m. tonight for Democrat Heidi Heitkamp. Ahead of the event, her campaign is going up with a 60-second spot from the former president. “I’ve known Heidi for years, back when she was one of the nicest and toughest attorneys general in the country,” he says. “I remember how she used to stand up for North Dakota farmers. She even beat my Fish and Wildlife Service in court. As president, you remember things like that. I can tell you personally she’ll be an independent voice for North Dakota. Heidi believes we need more people in the Senate who will put partisanship aside and do what’s right for our country. She understands we need to cut spending, and she’ll fight for energy jobs in North Dakota and oil and natural gas and coal.” Listen: http://goo.gl/6UctV.

WISCONSIN SENATE –THOMPSON AD CALLS BALDWIN ‘TOO EXTREME’: The GOP candidate in Wisconsin is out with a new ad today hitting back against Tammy Baldwin’s allegations that Thompson benefited from 9/11. “Tammy Baldwin's shameful campaign, falsely attacking Tommy Thompson on 9-11,” the ad says. “Not only did Baldwin vote against honoring the victims of 9-11, she fought to block funding that provides body armor for our troops just to make a political point. Baldwin even voted against tough sanctions on a nuclear Iran while pocketing sixty grand from a radical pro-Iran group.” Watch: http://bit.ly/PBrDh6

VIRGINIA SENATE – LCV, MAJORITY PAC TARGET ALLEN: The League of Conservation Voters and the pro-Democratic group Majority PAC are teaming up for an $800,000 ad buy against George Allen in Virginia. “With George Allen in Washington, here's who really wins: Companies getting tax breaks to ship American jobs overseas; Millionaires and Big Oil companies already getting billions in tax breaks,” the ad says. “And with George Allen in Washington, here's who loses: Families relying on Medicare and Social Security; Workers fighting to keep their jobs; and small businesses struggling to get by.” http://bit.ly/RrfzvL

LCV RELAUNCHES ROMNEY WIND ENERGY AD: The group is putting a fresh $850,000 into its ad from earlier this month, which features laid-off Colorado wind turbine worker Chris Maese. “I got laid off because Mitt Romney and his friends in Congress want to eliminate tax credits for the wind industry,” Maese says. “I think Mitt Romney is not in touch with the little guy. He's always been a supporter of Big Oil. He has friends that are in the Big Oil industry.” Watch: http://bit.ly/RrfJTO

AMERICAN BRIDGE LAUNCHES ROMNOPOLY AD IN OHIO: It’s a small $111K buy, with $50k more on targeted ads, but it’s the liberal super PAC’s closing argument – rounding up all their knocks on Romney over the auto rescue, Bain, his tax plan, education, etc. on a Monopoly board. 1-minute: http://goo.gl/D8d2o.

POLITICO—RON KAUFMAN CONFERENCE CALLS HELP SILENCE CRITICS: Ron Kaufman launched a series of special-access conference calls for top surrogates, like former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer, to stop Republicans from criticizing Romney on the record, Anna Palmer and John Bresnahan report. "Kaufman’s calls weren’t a typical campaign teleconference, which are often held to keep dozens of field organizers and interested surrogates in the loop. Kaufman’s guaranteed intimate, candid conversations with the campaign. Callers would get a behind-the-scenes look at the state of the race. They could ask any question — and get an honest answer."

Quote du jour: “Brian Jones, who works as a liaison for the campaign to the Republican National Committee, said that the calls reflect ‘ a certain level of care and feeding that’s been going on at an elevated level.’” http://bit.ly/SrZRBO

BLOOMBERG—HE AVOIDS TAXES VIA LOOPHOLE CUTTING MORMON DONATIONS: “In 1997, Congress cracked down on a popular tax shelter that allowed rich people to take advantage of the exempt status of charities without actually giving away much money. Individuals who had already set up these vehicles were allowed to keep them. That included Mitt Romney… who had just established such an arrangement in June 1996,” Jesse Drucker writes. “The charitable remainder unitrust, as it is known, is one of several strategies Romney has adopted over his career to reduce his tax bill…In this instance, Romney used the tax-exempt status of a charity -- the Mormon Church, according to a 2007 filing -- to defer taxes for more than 15 years. At the same time he is benefitting, the trust will probably leave the church with less than what current law requires, according to tax returns obtained by Bloomberg this month through a Freedom of Information Act request.” Story notes that this is a legal and common practice: http://goo.gl/6yoFk.

LA TIMES—VP HAS TAKEN A BACK SEAT AS MITT MOVED TO THE CENTER: “Ryan became less prominent as Romney's message shifted from conservatism to bipartisanship,” Alana Samuels writes. http://lat.ms/QPAecZ

OBAMA TALKER—HE STRUGGLES TO BALANCE AFRICAN AMERICAN HOPES: "Obama rarely discusses his innermost feelings about being the first African American to occupy the Oval Office, according to friends and associates, preferring to keep his thoughts closely held, shared with only a select few,” Peter Wallsten reports in the Washington Post. “He has shown himself to be drawn to the symbolic, or even aspirational, aspect of his presidency.” http://wapo.st/SrZLdr

BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING—THE PATH TO 270:

AP SAYS OBAMA HAS ELECTORAL COLLEGE ADVANTAGE: “Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Romney’s attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day,” writes Tom Beaumont. “While the Democratic incumbent has the upper hand in the electoral vote hunt, Romney has pulled even, or is slightly ahead, in polling in a few pivotal states, including Florida and Virginia. The Republican challenger also appears to have the advantage in North Carolina, the most conservative of the hotly contested nine states that will determine the winner. While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270. Without Ohio's 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning Obama's way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.” http://goo.gl/kxY6g

TIPPING POINTS—FIVE SMALL THINGS THAT COULD BE GAME-CHANGERS: “Lurking below the surface is an array of smaller, hidden factors — assets, liabilities, quirks, last-minute surprises — that could break the stalemate,” Glenn Thrush writes. Here are his five: Latino enthusiasm in Colorado. The impact of the Des Moines Register Romney endorsement. Mitt’s pitch to white ethnics in Cuyahoga County in Ohio. Same-day registration in Wisconsin allows Obama to push low-propensity voters to the polls. Does Minnesota attract Romney resources? Good read: http://goo.gl/bRc4S.

CATHOLIC ASSOCIATION MAKING PENNSYLVANIA PUSH: Convinced Pennsylvania is winnable for Romney, the conservative Catholic Association is digging into reserve funds and launching an effort to contact 584,000 Catholic voters ID'd in Pennsylvania as undecided or soft Obama/soft Romney. They have phone numbers for all of them and email addresses for about half. They will be phoned four times and emailed at least six times between now and next Tuesday. The theme for all avenues of communication in the Keystone State: "Obama has gone too far. Even Mother Teresa's charity fails his religious test." Here’s the postcard that’s going out: http://goo.gl/aHbIk.

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SUNDAY SHOWS HIGHLIGHTS—

NEWT DEFENDS MOURDOCK: ““If you listen to what Mourdock actually said, he said what every Catholic and every fundamentalist in the country believes: Life begins at conception,” he said on ABC’s “This Week.” “This seems to be fixated by the Democrats.” http://politi.co/RreCU0

KASICH PREDICTS ROMNEY VICTORY IN OHIO: "I believe right now we are currently ahead, internals show us currently ahead," he said on "Meet the Press." "I honestly think that Romney is going to carry Ohio, and you know I haven't been saying this. I now believe it is going to happen." http://politi.co/PBqjL1

…BUT CUTTER POINTS TO THE SCOREBOARD: “In many cases, we are beating Mitt Romney three-to-one in the early vote," she said. "Our people are turning out, and they are turning out very in very high numbers. We feel very good about Ohio and we think we’re gonna win it." http://politi.co/PBqpm7

SHE CALLS DES MOINES REGISTER ENDORSEMENT NOT ‘BASED … IN REALITY’: “It was a little surprising to read that editorial because it didn’t seem to be based at all in reality, not just in the president’s record but in Mitt Romney’s record,” she said. “It says he’d reach across the aisle when he’d do the exact opposite…He’s never once stood up to the far extreme right wing.” http://politi.co/RreIuX

ROVE: VOTERS SLOWLY MOVING TO ROMNEY: “Rove said on "Fox News Sunday" that he sees ‘movement toward Romney, but slow and [that's] simply because we're getting down to a very thin group of people left undecided.’” http://politi.co/RreKDc

MORE DOWN BALLOT—

WISCONSIN SENATE—BALDWIN'S SEXUAL ORIENTATION NOT AN ISSUE: "Tammy Baldwin could soon become the first openly gay United States senator. But you wouldn’t know it watching her deadlocked race against Republican Tommy Thompson," Dave Catanese writes from Appleton, Wis. "She doesn’t talks about it unless asked, which hardly ever happens. Thompson’s campaign has steered clear, with the exception of an aide’s tweet that landed him in hot water. There’ve been no TV ads or mailings — positive or negative — and the issue hasn’t surfaced in either of the first two debates." http://politi.co/SrZZBw

TENNESSEE HOUSE—ANONYMOUS DESJARLAIS EX-GIRLFRIEND TALKS: “On the heels of a sex scandal involving a female patient, another woman has acknowledged having a sexual relationship with physician and U.S. Rep. Scott DesJarlais while she was under his medical care,” the Chattanooga Times Free Press scoops. “The second woman described DesJarlais as ‘the nicest guy’ and said he cooked dinner for her at their first get-together in 2000. But she also said they smoked marijuana during their relationship and remembered DesJarlais prescribing her pain medication on dates at his home…The woman said the affair lasted six months and included mutual illicit drug use…DesJarlais is a Republican seeking re-election in the 4th District. In a prepared statement Saturday, his campaign did not dispute any specific allegations by the woman, instead condemning ‘personal smear campaigns that hurt families" and "have no place in politics.’” http://goo.gl/UCFMO

LIGHTER CLICKS—

JOSE ANDRES will teach a course at GWU next year on how food shapes civilization: http://goo.gl/3j2eJ.

CODA – QUOTE OF THE DAY: “This isn’t the politically correct thing to say, but when we drove the mother out of the home into the workplace and replaced her with the television set, that was not a good thing.” – Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-Md.) was almost certain to lose, even before this comment in the Washington Post: http://goo.gl/8dR3y.

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Authors:

About The Author

James Hohmann is a reporter for POLITICO Pro.

He covered the 2012 presidential campaign from start to finish, authoring the daily Morning Score tipsheet for nearly two years as he reported from 23 states over the course of the primaries and general election. Through the fall, he traveled with Mitt Romney.

Hohmann spent 2010 chronicling the Republican Party’s drive to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

He arrived from The Washington Post at the end of 2009. Previously he wrote for the Los Angeles Times Washington bureau, the Dallas Morning News and The San Jose Mercury News.

An honors graduate of Stanford University, Hohmann studied American political history. He served as editor-in-chief of The Stanford Daily and wrote an award-winning thesis about the 1976 Republican primaries and the political ascendancy of Ronald Reagan.

Hohmann grew up in Apple Valley, Minn.

About The Author

Emily Schultheis is a national political reporter and author of POLITICO Pro’s daily Morning Score tipsheet. She joined POLITICO as a 2010 summer intern, then filed stories on the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate and gubernatorial races and the 2012 election throughout her senior year at the University of Pennsylvania. Since arriving full-time at POLITICO in summer 2011, Schultheis spent the 2012 cycle writing for the “Burns & Haberman” blog and traveling the country with different presidential candidates. She took over Morning Score in January 2013.

In summer 2013, Schultheis was one of ten American journalists selected for the Arthur F. Burns Fellowship, an international reporting program for young journalists. She spent two months covering the German election in Berlin for POLITICO and SPIEGEL International.

Schultheis began covering politics for The Daily Pennsylvanian, Penn’s student-run newspaper, in 2008, trailing Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton throughout Philadelphia during the lead-up to the Pennsylvania primary. Her work has also appeared in the Philadelphia Daily News, Philadelphia City Paper and UWIRE’s Youth Vote ‘08 blog. She graduated summa cum laude from Penn with a degree in English literature in May 2011.

Schultheis, originally from the San Francisco Bay area, now lives in Arlington.