5 DIAGNOSTYKA (53)/ CEMPEL, Double Sigular Value Decompositio (SVD) Of Symptom Observatio Matrix 3 DOUBLE SINGULAR VALUE DECOMPOSITION (SVD) OF SYMPTOM OBSERVATION MATRIX IN MACHINE CONDITION MONITORING Czesław CEMPEL Pozań Uiversity of Techology, Summary Applicatio of SVD to fault extractio from the machie symptom observatio matrix (SOM) seems to be validated eough by meas of data take from real diagostic cases. But sometimes the umber of observatios, i.e. rak of the SOM is low, what may ifluece obtaied results ad subsequet diagostic decisio. This was the reaso to look for additioal improvemet by the secod applicatio of SVD to geeralized fault matrix obtaied by the first SVD. The result is strage, o accuracy icrease flows from the applicatio of the secod SVD, idepedetly of the SOM rak. This eeds further deliberatios ad rethikig. Keywords: multidimesioality, symptom observatio matrix, sigular value decompositio. ZASTOSOWANIE PODWÓJNEGO ROZKŁADU WARTOŚCI SZCZEGÓLNYCH (SVD) DO SYMPTOMOWEJ MACIERZY OBSERWACJI W DIAGNOSTYCE MASZYN Korzyści zastosowaia SVD w wielowymiarowej diagostyce maszy są potwierdzoe przez wielu autorów. Jedak dla małej ilości obserwacji, kiedy rząd symptomowej macierzy obserwacji jest iski, wyiki mogą wydawać się ieprecyzyje, co może wpływać a wyikowa decyzje diagostyczą. Zatem zastosowao podwójy rozkład SVD w skrajych przypadkach wziętych z praktyki diagostyczej, kilkuastu i kilkuset obserwacji. Otrzymay rezultat zaprzecza początkowej supozycji, dodatkowe zastosowaie SVD ie daje żadego wzrostu dokładości obliczeń uogólioych symptomów. Przy okazji tych badań podwójego SVD łatwo było skostruować owy uogólioy symptom wskazujący a występowaie dwu liczących się uszkodzeń w obserwowaym obiekcie, co może być istote w sytuacjach adzory złożoych obiektów. Słowa kluczowe: wielowymiarowość, macierz symptomowej obserwacji, rozkład wartości szczególych.. INTRODUCTION The idea of symptom observatio matrix (SOM) i multidimesioal coditio moitorig of machies is well established ad brigs several advatages, [Cempel et al 7]. Usually it is p>r rectagular matrix with (r) symptoms S r measured alog the system life θ (p readigs) placed i separate colums. It allows placig all physically differet symptoms measured i a pheomeal field of the machie i a oe SOM, ad to process them i order to obtai projectio of observatio space to the fault space of machie. Of course we usually observe more symptoms (colums of SOM), tha there is expected umber of faults i a machie. The preprocessig of SOM may be differet, but for coditio moitorig it was foud that ormalizatio ad extractio of symptom iitial value is the best solutio, brigig all symptoms to their dimesioless form. The, the applicatio of SVD to the dimesioless form of SOM gives eeded projectio of observatio space to the fault Symptom, measurable quatity covariable (or assumed to be) with the system coditio space. The resultat matrices of SVD decompositio allow calculatig two importat matrices. The first is SD matrix, which give us geeralized fault symptoms SD i of machie, ad i theory they are idepedet each other. From this matrix we ca calculate so called total damage (geeralized) symptom, as the sum of all SD i geeralized fault symptoms. This is maily i order to calculate the symptom limit value S l or to make the forecast of the total damage symptom. The secod AL matrix allows us to assess the cotributio of primary measured symptoms to a ewly formed geeralized fault symptoms. I this way we ca just say which of primary symptom is redudat, as it does ot give substatial iformatio cotributio, ad as such ca be rejected from further calculatios ad/or future measuremets. But the colum orthogoality of SD matrix is assured for sufficiet size of SOM matrix; i reality the matrix of correlatio coefficiet of SD matrix gives sometimes quite big off-diagoal elemets, some of order.5 ad higher. So, may be some improvemets i our diagostic reasoig is possible by the applicatio of aother orthogoal decompositio to SD matrix? I reality there is o

6 4 DIAGNOSTYKA (53)/ CEMPEL, Double Sigular Value Decompositio (SVD) Of Symptom Observatio Matrix big choice of decompositio method; pricipal compoets aalysis (PCA), which uses SVD as it ca be show [Golub et al 96], ad both are well diagostically iterpretable [Tumer et al ], [Jasiski 4], [Korbicz 4]. The well kow QR decompositio seems to be ot usable i diagostics. Accordig to upublished study of preset author, oly the mai diagoal of the upper triagular matrix R of this decompositio ca be compared to the first geeralized symptom SD, the higher upper diagoals are shorteed ad do ot carry readable diagostic iformatio. I priciple, it is possible the secod applicatio of PCA to SD matrix, but as it is kow eige values of decompositio will be the squares of sigular values of SVD, ad sigular vectors are equal to pricipal compoets. So there is o other solutio like to apply SVD agai, but for matrix SD oly, ot to AL matrix. This will trasfer oly part of SOM iformatio cotet, but we will see the result. Such is the mai idea of this paper, ad as it is hope, it brigs some advatages i coditio assessmet. It seems to, that the effect of this additioal decompositio maybe data depedet ad its real usability ca be jugged for the give populatio of diagosed objects.. OPTIMIZATION OF MULTI SYMPTOM MACHINE OBSERVATION It was assumed earlier, our iformatio about machie coditio evolutio is cotaied i p x r SOM, where i r colums ad p rows of the successive readigs of each symptom are preseted. Usually they are made at equidistat system life time momets θ, =,, p. I pre-processig operatio the colums of SOM are cetred ad ormalized to the three poit average of three iitial readigs of every symptom. This is i order to make the SOM dimesioless, ad to dimiish startig disturbaces of symptoms. This allows also to preset the evolutio rage of every symptom from zero up to few times of the iitial symptom value S r, (measured i the viciity of θ = ). After such preprocessig we obtai the dimesioless SOM i the form; Sm SOM = O = [ ], pr Sm Sm =, () S m Now we ca apply the Sigular Value Decompositio (SVD) [Golub 96], [Will 5], [Kielbasiński et al 9] to our dimesioless SOM (), to obtai sigular compoets (vectors) ad sigular values (umbers) of SOM, i the form T rr O = U Σ V, ( T matrix traspositio), () pr pp pr where; U pp is p dimesioal orthoormal matrix of left had side sigular vectors, V rr is r dimesioal orthoormal matrix of right had side sigular vectors, ad the diagoal matrix of sigular values Σ pr is defied as below ( σ σ ) whit ozero s. v. : σ > σ >... > σ, Σ pr = diag,..., l, u > (3) ad zero s. v. ; σ u+ = σ l = ; l= max (p, r), u mi ( p, r), u < r < p. Goig back to SVD itself it is worthwhile to say, that every o square matrix has such decompositio, ad it may be iterpreted also as the product of three matrices [Will 5], amely O pr = (Hager) ( Stretcher) (Aliger T ) (4) This is a very metaphorical descriptio of SVD trasformatio, but it seems to be a useful aalogy for the iferece ad decisio makig i coditio moitorig. The diagostic iterpretatio of formulae (4) ca be obtaied very easily. Namely, usig its left had side part, we are stretchig our SOM over the life (observatios) dimesio, obtaiig the matrix of geeralized symptoms SD as the colums of the matrix. Ad usig its right had side part of (4) we are stretchig SOM over the observed (primary) symptoms dimesio, obtaiig the assessmet of cotributio of every primary symptoms i the form of matrix AL, assessig i this way the cotributio of each primary symptom to the geeralized fault symptom SD i,i=, u. SD =O pr V rr = U pp Σ rr ; ad; AL = U T pp O pr = Σ rr V T rr (5) We will calculate the above matrices ad use them for better iterpretatio of moitorig results (SD) ad optimizatio of the dimesio of the observatio space (AL). As the rows of SOM matrix were formed alog the machie lifetime, so the colums of SD matrix

7 DIAGNOSTYKA (53)/ CEMPEL, Double Sigular Value Decompositio (SVD) Of Symptom Observatio Matrix 5 have the discrete argumet of life time θ, ad we ca write fault space iterpretatio as below; SD t (θ) F t (θ), where; u i is a colum of U pp. t=,,, z Norm (SD t ) SD t = σ t., t =,...,u (6) Ad for the total damage geeralized symptom ( θ ) = σ ( θ ) u ( θ ) F( θ ) SumSD i ( θ ) = SDi i i, (7) i= z i= This cocept of diagostic iferece, for idividual fault F t (6), ad total fault damage F (7) has bee proved i several papers [Cempel 4], [Cempel at al 7], ad we will use it i further cosideratio. The above results, based o geeralized fault symptoms, have bee obtaied oly from the first matrix SD i (5). Ad the secod matrix AL gives us the relative measure of iformatio cotributio to each geeralized symptom give by particular primary symptom measured durig the SOM gatherig. This is oe way of assessmet of the primary symptom redudacy, but we eed some other global idicators of rejectio of the redudat symptom. I our previous papers we have used modified Frobeius orm of SOM ad the geeralized volume of the fault space created by SOM. What is importat here, these two measures are based o sigular values of SOM, which i tur ca be treated as the fault advacemet measures (see (6)). Frob = Σ σ i ; (8) ad; Vol = Π σ i, i =, u. Lookig above for the value creatio method, oe ca say that if some primary symptom will be really redudat its rejectio should chage Frob measure oly a little (small σ I ), ad should much icrease the fault space volume Vol. We will otice how it behaves with real examples of symptom rejectio i diagosed machies. 3. TOTAL DAMAGE SYMPTOM AND DOMINATING SYMPTOM OF MACHINE, EXAMPLE As a first example of applicatio of our idea we will take a hard diagostic case - a huge fa for coal millig from oe of Polish thermo power statio. Here the root mea square vibratio velocity (V rms ) has bee used as a symptom of coditio, ad iitially altogether symptoms at differet places of fa mill aggregate structure were costatly moitored over 6 weeks lifetime θ. How ustable ad oisy the fa ruig eviromet is, oe ca otice from the left top picture of the fig.. It is see further (middle left picture), that the symptom ormalizatio ad additio of life time symptom θ (straight lie) do ot chage much the oisy behaviour of primary ad geeralized symptoms (bottom left picture ). Lookig at the middle right picture of Fig., where matrix AL is preseted, oe ca otice that symptoms No 7,8,9,, do ot give substatial cotributio to the three domiatig geeralized symptoms, ad probably ca be rejected as redudat at the first approach. With this respect please ote the value of Frobeius modified measure Frob ad the volume Vol of the fault space at upper right picture. Oe ca also ote here, that there are two geeralized symptoms with high iformatio cotets, ad due to that two symptom limit values are assessed: S lc for the total damage symptom, ad S l for the first geeralized symptom (bottom pictures).

9 DIAGNOSTYKA (53)/ CEMPEL, Double Sigular Value Decompositio (SVD) Of Symptom Observatio Matrix 7 Followig these guidelies of Fig. five symptoms have bee rejected from the primary umber of eleve, ad the result of ew SOM decompositio is see o the Fig. 3. As ca be see from the picture top left the most of troublesome u-diagostic symptom was rejected. Due to this oe ca say we have ew SOM with little icrease of Frobeius modified measure, ad dramatic icrease of the fault space volume. Comparig pictures bottom left of Fig. ad Fig. 3 oe ca otice that most of geeralized symptoms oscillatio has bee reduces, but they are still preset there. Also it is worthwhile to otice the decrease of sigular values cotributio i a ew SOM. There are still two domiatig faults but amout of iformatio they carry is icreased ow. This is the result of SOM optimizatio by meas of symptom rejectio described already i some papers [Cempel 9]. Havig doe this oe ca ow proceed to coditio forecast, by meas of eural ets [Tabaszewski 6] or by grey system theory [Cempel et al 7]. But we are iterested ow i some improvemets of geeralised fault symptoms, possible by ew SVD processig, what will be doe i a ext poit. m S p -s ym S o f p l iṫ m A Symp.Observ.Matrix with movavg.of A=loz8b Sympt.Observ.Matrix;ce&orm.iit; A=loz8b m m ss o p t ym S o f p l iṫ m A R el. p -s m C o S i ġ ọ f p l m R elạ 5 Stright lie = life svdoptit: Life evolut.of SumSD i & SD discr. Rejected 5 symptoms o 7,8,9,, SumSD i SD S l = S lc =3.34 SumSDi saved as SDiOpt Lifetime obs-s % σ i o f o u ti b tri C o R el. D i S o f e d p l itu m Ạ R el 6 4 Sig.Val.Numb.σ i :3 Sigul.Compo.-cotrib.of primary symptoms Iform.Cotrib.of sigular values σ i Frob=35.98 Vol=3.948 No of primary symptom S - i Life Evolut.of Symptom Limit Value S l ; for SD + S S l l += S lc +=4.34 e 4 V al u it 3 m L i p ṫ m S y Number of observatios used for S l calculatio Fig. 3. Coal mill fa as o Fig. with five redudat symptoms rejected 4. THE SECOND DECOMPOSITION OF GENERALIZED SYMPTOM MATRIX SD As it was said i the itroductio the geeralized symptoms theoretically have to be orthogoal, but usually it is ot exactly true, depedig o the type of SOM matrix. Hece let us recall partly the relatio (5) creatig the geeralized symptom matrix SD SD =O pr V rr = U pp Σ rr. As oe ca see this is rectagular p r matrix, but as relatio (3) idicates oly u < r of sigular values are differet from zero, hece we should correct above to SD =O pr V uu = U pp Σ uu. (9) Applyig ow SVD agai to the above, aalogously to () we will have SD =U pp * Σ pu *V T uu. () Ad from the last decompositio we should pass to the ew geeralised fault symptom matrix i the same way as i (5), let s ame it SD, as below; SD = SD*V uu =U pp * Σ uu. () It seems to, that after such double decompositio, the ew geeralized fault symptoms SD i will be much more orthogoal, this meas havig less disturbaces i the course of system life θ. Let us tur our attetio agai to Fig. 3, picture top right. As we ca otice from here it seems to be two faults i our machie; with relative stregth close to 6% for the first ad close to 4% for the secod fault. It would be iterestig if the double SVD cofirm the presece o two faults ad repeat their iteral relatio. Also for the iferece

10 8 DIAGNOSTYKA (53)/ CEMPEL, Double Sigular Value Decompositio (SVD) Of Symptom Observatio Matrix process it would be helpful to create some ew measure, or symptom, which cofirms the presece of the secod fault i a machie. This ew symptom of the secod fault (SF) ca be simply the ormalized product of the two first domiatig symptoms as below; where ormalizatio is actig oly with respect of first domiatig symptom SD. Such calculatio as sketched above has bee appeded to the program svdoptit.m ad the result oe ca see ad aalyze lookig at the Fig.4 below. SF =SD *SD *( SD ) -/, () SvdOptIt.m; Double svd of Ge.Sympt matrix for A=loz8b Sigular values cotributio of double SVD 6 p l iṫ m a m o p t ym ṣ ra l G ee geerealized fault symptoms o u ti b tri o c o f t pe rc e Frob=35.98 Vol= Number of sigular value Sum ad first fault symptom of C = double SVD Normalized product of domiatig geeralized symptoms-sf sd Sum SDi 8 5 p l iṫ m a. i D i s crim 5 p l iṫ m a t a m i r i D i s c 6 4 Statioary => secod machie fault Life Life Fig. 4. The secod SVD of geeralized fault symptom matrix SD, ad the ew symptom of secod fault presece, for the data of Fig.3 of a fa mill Fig. 4 ad Fig. 3 (bottom left ad top right) we ca otice their idetity with the respect of shape of the curves, their values, as well as the values of Frobeius measure ad Volume of the geeralized fault space. This idetity is shockig result. Moreover, if we calculate correlatio coefficiet matrix for geeralized fault matrices SD ad SD after secod SVD, their results are also idetical, eve with respect of values of the off-diagoal elemets. What does it mea? We kow that SD matrix, created accordig relatio (5), does ot carry all the iformatio of primary SOM. The same is with SD matrix accordig to relatio () ad (). Util ow, this fact ca ot be iterpreted correctly usig author s uderstadig oly. But ot all iformatio cotaied i a Fig. 4 brigs us to cofusio. Lookig for the picture bottom ad top right, we ca otice that i this case we have idepedet cofirmatio of secod fault existece i our machie. So, the calculatio of product of first two geeralized faults () gives us idepedet cofirmatio of secod fault existece or its ot existece. But may be this idetity of results after secod SVD applicatio is data orieted? Let us take aother example. This time it comes from ball bearigs durability testig stad, where slowly pulsatig load was applied additioally ad 9 symptoms has bee measured iitially. Fig. 5 preset here optimized SOM of the ball bearig experimet, after rejectio of 3 redudat symptoms, ad Fig. 6 presets the results of secod SVD applicatio to the SD matrix. Ad agai comparig bottom left ad top right pictures of Fig. 5, with the top pictures of Fig. 6 oe ca fid their idetity, the same as i previous case. So this is a rule of data processig, ad idetity is ot data orieted. But there is a god ews i Fig. 6, Author is obliged here to Dr M. Tabaszewski for providig the data.

11 DIAGNOSTYKA (53)/ CEMPEL, Double Sigular Value Decompositio (SVD) Of Symptom Observatio Matrix 9 it is cofirmatio of the existece of the secod fault, emergig durig the life testig of the bearig (picture bottom right). Of course there are some oscillatios o the course of SF due to oscillatio of bearig load, but the mea course of SF measure strictly idicate secod fault presece ad its evolutio. I previous examples we had rather big data base; sixty or oe hudred sixty rows i SOM matrices (readigs). Hece let us chage the dimesio of SOM to very short, of order of twety symptom readigs. This ca be the case of railroad diesel egie coditio moitorig 3, where at the top of oe cylider all vibratioal quatities has bee measured, each te thousad kilometers of its mileage up to the breakdow. Figures 7 ad 8 preset this case i the same maer as it was doe previously. Although Fig. 7 is already optimized with 3 symptoms rejected, oe ca see that last four sigular values are very small, givig the small value of the volume of geeralized fault space of order -7. We have here situatio where oly oe fault is developed, what is clearly see from the pictures top right ad bottom left. The rest of sigular values ad geeralized symptoms as well, do ot give substatial cotributio to the total damage symptom Sum SD i. Ad the same is see from the Fig. 8 where the secod SVD have bee applied to the geeralized fault symptom matrix SD, picture left bottom of Fig. 7. As there is o secod fault visible from the distributio of sigular values (top right pictures), the secod fault measure SF behaves quite stragely o the Fig. 8 bottom right showig us that there is o secod fault. This cofirms the relevace of the SF measure itroduced here first time. m S p -s ym S o f p l iṫ m A m ss o p t ym S o f p l iṫ m A R el. p -s m C o S i ġ ọ f p l m Ạ R el m Symp.Observ.Matrix with movavg.of A=lozr Sympt.Observ.Matrix;ce&orm.iit; A=lozr 5 5 Stright lie = life svdoptit: Life evolut.of SumSD i & SD discr. SumSD i SD rejected 3 symptoms o,3,4 S lc =.965 S l =9.83 SumSDi saved as SDiOpt Lifetime obs-s % σ i o f o u ti b tri o.c R el D i S o f e d p l itu m Ạ R el + S l e V al u it m L i p ṫ S y m 6 4 Sig.Val.Numb.σ i Iform.Cotrib.of sigular values σ i Frob=3.996 Vol=.5686 :3 Sigul.Compo.-cotrib.of primary symptoms No of primary symptom S - i 5 5 Life Evolut.of Symptom Limit Value S l ; for SD Number of observatios used for S l calculatio Fig. 5. Optimized SOM of ball bearig at the testig stad with slowly pulsatig load 3 This time author is obliged to Professor F. Tomaszewski for providig the data.

15 DIAGNOSTYKA (53)/ NECAS, KELEMEN, Moder techology revolutio for security 3 MODERN TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION FOR SECURITY Pavel NECAS, Miroslav KELEMEN The Armed Forces Academy of Geeral Mila Rastislav Štefáik, Demäová 393, 3 Liptovský Mikuláš, Slovak Republic, Summary The global dimesio of future security threats is of paramout importace. Whilst techological advacemets will cotiue to be the basis of wealth for may atios, terrorism is likely to cotiue to be the harbiger of a pervasive sese of isecurity amogst populatios. Icreasigly, eergy security will be the driver of may key strategic decisios, creatig dyamic ad ustable iter-state iteractios i the process. With the iteratioalsystem itself experiecig a period of profoud flux, some of the istitutios that are charged with maagig global problems may be overwhelmed. The likelihood of great power coflict escalatig ito total war is lower tha at ay time i the past cetury but weak govermets, laggig ecoomies, mass migratio, WMD proliferatio, religious extremism, ad youth bulges, will alig to geerate the coditios for iteral regioal coflicts with global impact, backed by the Revolutio i Military Affairs.. Keywords: Techology ad Military Trasformatio, Security techology, Research ad Developmet, Risk-Threat-Vulerability, Life-time cycle, Afghaista, Natioal strategies, Emergig techology, Eergy Security, Iovative approach, Revolutio i Military Affairs. INTRODUCTION Globalizatio ad the spread of iformatio echology will combie to put icreasig strai o the cocept of state, but will ot alter the geographical dimesio that remais a key parameter. After due cosideratio of the levers impactig the future strategic eviromet, together a aalysis of the treds of key factors such as resources, ecoomies ad populatios, the resultat is likely to be a sceario of states liked by commo iterests, cultures, expectatios ad ambitios, that rotate aroud pivotal states actig as regioal attractors. A additioal level of complexity arises due to the dyamic iteractio betwee the geographical ad virtual dimesios possibly iducig cetrifugal forces as idividual atios cluster aroud pivotal states. Techology has a rage of implicatios for atioal govermets: the impact that scietific ad techological developmets have o society, the ecoomy ad the eviromet; what the latest treds are; what the future might hold; ad how this all affects security, both iteral ad exteral. Therefore, sciece ad techology, research ad developmet cosideratios, ad others have to be icluded i the factors determiig atioal strategy. Techology has offered a high ad sophisticated stadard of livig to societies but at the same time itroduced a iheret vulerability. Without its tools their ecoomies ca o loger be ru ad their ifrastructure would collapse. Moder societies ad their armed forces have become highly depedet o moder techology. The uarmed attacks of 9/ clearly demostrated this ad the public is geerally ot aware of eve larger threats, some at a atio's scale, posed by terrorists but also by accidets or atural disasters, just because of the total reliace o techology. Regardig military affairs, the Gulf Wars, the Kosovo air campaig ad the war agaist terrorism i Afghaista sharpeed the public's iterest i the military applicatios of high techology, through televisio pictures of the precisio use of smart weapos ad stad-off weapos platforms. The myth of the "zero-loss war" was actually bor i Kosovo. Immediately derivig from this experiece, the reluctace for casualties ad collateral damage would have grow ad iflueced to some extet the political attitude of Govermets i takig part ito operatios, evetually beig able to ifluece up to the atio's strategy.. GEO-STRATEGIC ANALYSIS The strategic repercussios brought about by the ed of the Cold War are still ufoldig: emergig powers i Asia, retrechmet i Eurasia ad a roilig Middle East. The very magitude ad speed of chage resultig from a globalizig world will be a defiig feature of the world ito the st cetury. Other sigificat characteristics iclude: ew challeges to goverace ad a more pervasive sese of isecurity due to terrorism. As oe map the future, prospects for icreasig global prosperity ad the limited likelihood of great power coflicts provide a overall favorable eviromet for copig with what are otherwise dautig

16 4 DIAGNOSTYKA (53)/ NECAS, KELEMEN, Moder techology revolutio for security challeges. Globalizatio, that is growig ecoomic iter-coectedess reflected i expaded iformatio flow, shared techology, iteractive capital ivestmet, iter-depedet markets for goods ad services, ad a icreasigly mobile workforce throughout the world, will be a overarchig mega-tred, capable of substatially ifluecig all parallel global forces. 3. GLOBAL DIMENSION OF CHALLENGES A expadig global ecoomy will icrease demad for may fiite raw materials e.g. oil, that is expected to become sigificatly scarce by the middle of the st cetury. Total global eergy cosumptio is likely to rise by about 5 percet i the ext two decades compared to a 34 percet expasio from 98-. Most experts assess that, with substatial ivestmet i ew capacity, overall eergy supplies will be sufficiet to meet these icreasig global demads. However, o the supply side, may of the areas, the Caspia/Barets Seas, Veezuela, ad West Africa, that are beig relied upo to provide icreased output are accompaied by substatial political or ecoomic risk. Traditioal suppliers i the Middle East are also icreasigly ustable. Thus sharper demaddrive competitio for resources, perhaps accompaied by a major disruptio of oil supplies, are amog key ucertaities. Icreasigly, eergy security will be oe of the critical elemets of the security eviromet ito the future. Part of the pressure o goverace will come from ew forms of idetity politics cetered o religious covictios. I particular, political Islam will cotiue to have a sigificat global impact, rallyig disparate ethic ad atioal groups ad perhaps eve creatig a authority that trasceds atioal boudaries. Democratizatio ad greater pluralism could gai groud i key Middle Easter coutries that thus far have bee excluded from the process by repressive regimes. Yet, the process already started i may states of the former Soviet Uio ad i Southeast Asia, may well prove less effective tha hoped with a retur to less democratic regime structures possible. Regioally based istitutios will be particularly challeged to meet the complex trasatioal threats posed by terrorism, orgaized crime ad the proliferatio of Weapos of Mass Destructio (WMD). Such post-world War II creatios as the UN ad the iteratioal fiacial istitutios risk slidig ito obsolescece uless they adjust to the profoud chages takig place i the global system, icludig the rise of ew powers (regioal hegemos). A sese of isecurity will characterize public opiio based o psychological perceptios beig viewed as physical threats. Eve as most of the world gets richer, globalizatio will profoudly shake up the status quo. This geerates eormous ecoomic, cultural, ad cosequetial political covulsios. Curret uclear weapos states will cotiue to improve the survivability of their deterret forces ad almost certaily will fid methods to better the reliability, accuracy, ad lethality of delivery systems as well as develop capabilities to peetrate missile defeses. The active demostratio of uclear capabilities by ay state would further discredit the curret oproliferatio regime, cause a possible shift i the balace of power, ad icrease the risk of coflicts escalatig ito uclear oes. Coutries without uclear weapos, especially i the Middle East ad Northeast Asia, might decide to seek them as it becomes clear that their eighbors ad regioal rivals are doig so. Moreover, the assistace of proliferators will reduce the time required for additioal coutries to develop uclear weapos. Iformatio techology, allowig for istat coectivity, commuicatio, ad learig, will eable the terrorist threat to become icreasigly decetralized, thus evolvig ito a eclectic array of groups, cells ad idividuals that do ot eed a statioary headquarters to pla ad carry out their operatios. Traiig materials, targetig guidace, weapos kow-how, ad fud-raisig will all become virtually olie. Terrorist attacks will cotiue to primarily employ covetioal weapos, icorporatig ew twists ad costatly adaptig to couterterrorist efforts. Terrorists probably will be most origial, ot i the techologies or weapos they use, but rather i their operatioal cocepts i.e. the scope, desig ad support arragemets for their attacks. Strog terrorist iterest i acquirig chemical, radiological, biological, ad uclear weapos icreases the risk of a major terrorist attack ivolvig WMDs. The greatest cocer is that terrorists might acquire biological agets or, less likely, a uclear device, either of which has the capacity to geerate idiscrimiate casualties o a huge scale. Bio-terrorism appears particularly suited to the smaller, better-iformed groups. The terrorists will attempt cyber attacks to disrupt critical iformatio etworks ad, eve more likely, cause physical damage to iformatio systems. Mass migratio will cotiue ad, as a cosequece of the low educatioal stadards of most migrats, this pheomeo will cotiue to give rise to high levels of uemploymet brigig with it the potetial to geerate ethic ad religious tesios. The resultat is the creatio of a frustrated ad disechated huma resource pool with recruitmet potetial for terrorism. The difficulty for atioal security mechaisms is the to idetify such terrorists withi the state boudary ad ucover the eemy i oe s ow lad. Ad this is vital i order to prevet terrorist activities takig place that, i tur, geerate

17 DIAGNOSTYKA (53)/ NECAS, KELEMEN, Moder techology revolutio for security 5 idiscrimiate victims (sometimes o a large scale but ot always) withi the populatio, istill a pervasive fear amogst populatios i the process ad adversely impact ecoomic systems. Orgaized crime embraces the elemets of moey lauderig, huma traffickig, smugglig, drug traffickig ad corruptio. Together, these elemets have the potetial to udermie state structures ad ifluece the power moopoly of states. As all developed states are depedet, ad becomig icreasigly depedet, o Iformatio Techology (IT) the potetial impact of cyber crime, especially as a tool of terrorism, is very likely to attai a ew level of importace ito the future. Already oly a slight iterferece of these complex systems ca geerate damage of immese magitude. A large umber of physical disasters are forecast, i particular, as a cosequece of the meltig of the polar ice caps. If this materializes widespread floodig of coastal regios will follow, ecessitatig migratio. I additio a evirometal reshapig of this magitude is likely to be accompaied by dramatic chages to weather patters such that a icreasig umber ad frequecy of torados, tsuamis ad storms follow. The implemetatio of strategies desiged to couter such occurreces will demad huge atioal ad iteratioal commitmet, especially i budgetary terms ad, ievitably this will divert resources from other areas, icludig security. The security challege preseted therefore will be to cotiue to provide a secure eviromet with dimiishig resources i a icreasigly atural resource scarce eviromet. Resposibility to couter the security challeges posed falls to the respective atioal security orgaisms, i particular itelligece services ad police authorities. However, the real challege i cofrotig the cause of the security risks lies hidde withi democracy itself as divertig huge sums of moey to evirometal issues lesses the amout available for health, educatio, welfare. Importatly, i tadem with fractured stability issues arisig withi member states of NATO military capability gaps will emerge ad wide as idividual atios divert resources from defese to other areas as other, more pressig, difficulties arise. 4. GLOBAL VERSUS GEOGRAPHICAL APPROACH Globalizatio ad Revolutio i Military Affairs will place eormous additioal strai o govermets. Growig coectivity will be accompaied by the proliferatio of virtual commuities of iterest, complicatig the ability of states to gover. The Iteret, i particular, will spur the creatio of eve more global movemets that may emerge as robust forces i iteratioal affairs. Oe ca rightfully ask if, i a era of globalizatio ad cyberizatio, whether geography cotiues ad, will cotiue to be a domiat value. Globalizatio cosists largely of two aspects, oe beig the rise of tras-atioal ecoomic actors, sometimes more powerful tha states, ad the other the geographical discoectio of otherwise liked ecoomic activities, maily betwee the productio of goods ad associated services. The cyberizatio of commuicatios has largely promoted the latter. Ecoomic activities, as they bid people ad establish societies, costitute the baselie of iterhuma relatios. These activities are depedet o the availability of, or access to, resources (huma ad material) that are uevely distributed aroud the globe. Geography determies the spatial patter or distributio of these resources, be it huma through livig space ad coditios or material through availability or, eve more importat, accessibility by presetig atural barriers as the moutais ad deserts or atural highways like waterways ad sea laes. Of course, available techology ad capital may create ifrastructure that modifies these geographical features, thus ifluecig accessibility, but large-scale geographic barriers ca rarely be completely aihilated. Geostrategy is ot geographic determiism, but it is based o the assumptio that geography defies limits ad opportuities i iteratioal politics: states ca realize their geopolitical opportuities or become the victims of their geopolitical situatio [4]. Eve a cyber based ecoomy will require specific huma resources ad ifrastructure, most of the time oly available i areas where other ecoomic activities are developed. Commo ecoomical activities shape societies ad iter-societal ecoomical exchages are accompaied by cultural exchages, promotig commo uderstadig ad mutual ifluece, the depth of which is largely depedat o the relative power balace. As geography determies spatial trade flows, it will equally ifluece cultural commoality ad determie society groupigs. The ecoomical activities of a society provide the basis for its power. To determie the power distributio amogst states or regios ad their evolutio i the ear future, it is ecessary to study the buildig blocks costitutig their power. As previously articulated, the prime power elemets (or factors) costitute populatios, resources i their quatitative ad qualitative aspects providig a qualified labor force, availability of material resources, the capability to develop ad use techology, determie the ability to chage physical ad huma eviromets or to adapt to a chagig eviromet ad fially, ecoomies i

18 6 DIAGNOSTYKA (53)/ NECAS, KELEMEN, Moder techology revolutio for security their ow right, providig capital, the ultimate meas of exchage i order to acquire the resources or techology eeded. Geo-strategy is the ecessarily a dyamic approach. It reflects the global costellatio of power elemets arisig from the iteractio of geography o the oe had ad techology ad ecoomic developmet o the other. Techology ad the ifusio of capital ca modify, though ot egate, the strategic importace of a particular geographic space. Ma-made cyber geography, the ultimate expressio of globalizatio, is likely to exist alogside, or o top of, atural geographic features ad is expected to become aother example of techology modifyig or reducig the ifluece of the atural ladscape, but ot reducig it to a level of icosequet impact because that is ot possible. 5. TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT COUNTS! A pertiet questio is whether techological developmets might brig Allies to the limits of iteroperability. Over the last two decades the USA have bee spedig more moey o developig techology tha all the Europea parters sped together. Oe ca argue that this kid of "gap" has always existed. The preset problem could lie i the vaishig solidarity as the commo eemy has faded away. Weaker Allies would have bee backed up to avoid a breakthrough while ow military ad political authorities will rather questio the opportuity of takig supplemetary risks just for the "pleasure" of ejoyig their compay i the plaed operatios. A real techological gap may cause a shift i the threshold of iterests for commo actio ad could iduce a political gap that would be much more damageable for NATO's cohesio. The global iformatio ifrastructure eables ay group, if ot idividuals, to have access to techiques for home made weapory. Aother aspect is the power acquired by major multiatioal armamet maufacturers o govermets as they detai the key techology to base military power o. O the other had, some compaies will oly survive as log as public moey is made available for Research ad Developmet (R&D) ad sometimes eve just for ruig. Will moder techology become too expesive for some atioal defese idustries i a competitive ad shrikig defese market? Additioally, the fast developmet of techology could have i some atios a iteral aspect as it is ot sure that all top maagers of the armed forces ad their political masters are well aware of what is goig o. This remark is ot made to blame them but to stress that the techical complexity is ow so high that it has become very difficult for specialists to iform thoroughly ad clearly the decisio makers about the possibilities but also the cosequeces of every techical progress. This is the ope door to a lot of deleterious lobbyig ad potetially dagerous strategic orietatios ad operatioal choices. 6. HIGH-TECH IMPACT: IRAQ CASE STUDY Alog with the aspect of iformatio ad media, the aspect of globalizatio that is affectig asymmetric capabilities of our potetial adversaries is that of iformatio techology advaces. Techology was oce the weapo of the strog as the US with the NATO Allies demostrated with its overwhelmig defeat of the umerically superior Iraqi Army durig Operatio Desert Storm. The first ight of the Gulf War air campaig demostrated that the coduct of war had chaged. Well before daw o 7 Jauary 99, Major Greg Biscoe flew the first of two B- 5s toward Wadi Al Kirr airfield, a recetly completed forward fighter base i cetral Iraq. His targets were the taxiways betwee the ruway ad hardeed aircraft shelters. Skimmig 3 feet over the desert at 5 miles a hour it was so dark the ight visio goggles ad low light TV system did t help. Iraqi early warig radars forced Biscoe to drop his huge, old bomber lower, the surface-to-air missile (SAM) threat was greater tha the dager of flyig withi a wigspa of the groud. Miutes later, Biscoe ad his couterparts executed a successful multi-axis attack cripplig the airfield ad leavig ati-aircraft artillery with othig to fire at but the recedig jet oise. Less tha a hour earlier, stealthy F-7s had struck the heart of the eemy, Baghdad, i the opeig miutes of the war. Tomahawk Lad Attack Missiles (TLAMs) followed, strikig critical electric systems ad govermet decisio-makig ad commuicatios ceters. F-5Es, part of a iitial covert etry scheme ito Iraq, attacked kow SCUD lauch facilities that threateed Israel ad coalitio atios. Simultaeously, 3 F-7s flew agaist separate targets icludig commad bukers orth of Baghdad, commuicatios exchages i Baghdad, iterceptor operatios ceters i Kuwait, satellite dowlik facilities ad vital commuicatios odes aroud the coutry. I wester Iraq 3 aircraft attacked Saddam Hussei s chemical productio facilities. Just orth of Basrah, 38 fighters put Shaibah airfield out of commissio ad 44 others stripped away the medium altitude SAM defeses west of Baghdad ear Al Taqqadum airfield, the Habaiyh oil storage area ad three chemical weapos precursor facilities to clear the way for attacks the followig afteroo. All suspected biological weapos storage sites were

19 DIAGNOSTYKA (53)/ NECAS, KELEMEN, Moder techology revolutio for security 7 targeted ad critical oil storage facilities were hit. Covetioal air lauched cruise missiles (CALCMs) fired by B-5s flyig from the Uited States reached electric facilities at Al Mawsil i Norther Iraq. By the ed of the first 4 hours of the war, bombs also hit eemy bridges, military support ad productio factories, ad aval facilities. I all, more tha,3 offesive air sorties were flow that day. However, it was ot the umber of sorties that made this first day of air attacks so importat, but how they were plaed ad co-coordiated to achieve specific effects; this represets oe of the first examples of the effective implemetatio of the latest moder military techology assets available. The superior defeat i less tha hours had forever chaged the ability of moder, techologically advaced atios to wage war. The debate still spread out about whether there was or ot a Revolutio i Military Affairs (RMA), but what is icreasigly clear is that the techology that eabled the Allies to defeat Iraq is ow becomig uiversally available. Techology trasfer has really take three forms. First there is almost uiversal access to space-based imagery, the global positioig etwork, ad worldwide secure commuicatios etwork. Secod, it is ow extremely easy to purchase techologically advaced weapos such as Global Positioig System (GPS), jammers, radio directio fidig equipmet, ight visio devices ad hadheld radios at a fractio of the cost had paid to develop them. Fially, the cost of moder weapos has become so great, that it has icreased the depedece o joit military ad civilia vetures where techology trasfer to the civilia commuity is icreasigly difficult to cotrol. 7.CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Durig a fiftee miutes search o the Iteret oe is able to obtai high quality imagery of Washigto D.C., Brussels, Petago, several of importat uclear facilities ad almost ay NATO Allies military istallatios. This iformatio is available to ayoe with a computer ad a modem. If oe is willig to pay, the iformatio ca be set worldwide i ear real time. If a adversary were plaig a attack agaist whatever Ceter of Gravity (COG) as for example uclear plat may be, this would provide a ivaluable plaig tool. Access to GPS systems, satellite phoes, ad secure Iteret commuicatios have give crimial ad terrorist etworks access to the same level of iformatio that was oce available to oly the most sophisticated atios. Terrorist groups ad extremist orgaizatios are makig uprecedeted use of this ew techology as outlied i a report by the US Natioal Ifrastructure Protectio Ceter. Extremist groups are icreasigly adoptig the power of moder commuicatios techology. A extremist orgaizatio, whose members get guidace from s or by visitig a secure web site, ca operate i a coordiated fashio without its members ever havig to meet face to face with other members of the orgaizatio [5]. First, the Iteret is beig used to corporate ew members ito terrorist/extremist orgaizatios ad bombs them with a steady stream of propagada. This propagada idoctriatio ca be coducted from a safe area where the leaders are free from ay threat of law eforcemet. Secodly, access to olie commuicatio sources like free accouts, chat rooms, ad web-based bulleti boards, make it difficult to track where messages are comig from or goig to. It provides a meas for almost worldwide secure commuicatio. The emergece of more sophisticated techology, like aoymous r ers, ecryptio ad decryptio, will oly make idetificatio ad trackig more difficult. Ad fially, Iteret gatherig poits allow dispersed members to share ideological ad operatioal iformatio, eablig them to cetralize their shared world view ito idepedetly actuated agedas i support of a commo goal. Aother reality of the globally coected world is the mergig of defese ad commercial techologies o a global scale. It is oly logical that as our defese idustries shrik ad cosolidate, they will have to produce products that have both military ad civilia, dual use capabilities to survive. The ability to achieve competece i civilia productio ad defeseidustrial applicatios is becomig icreasigly itertwied. At the same time, market access i the developig world (as i East Asia) icreasigly requires techology sharig as a istrumet of commercial competitio []. The proliferatio of weapos techology will be a icreasig problem. Techology diffusio to those few states with a motivatio to arm ad the ecoomic resources to do so will accelerate as weapos ad militarily relevat techologies are moved rapidly ad routiely across atioal borders i respose to icreasigly commercial rather tha security calculatios. For such militarily related techologies as the Global Positioig System, satellite imagery, ad commuicatios, techological superiority will be difficult to maitai for very log []. The greatest revolutios i military affairs are possibly more i the ature of war tha i techological revolutio i weapos systems, commad ad cotrol devices ad so o. A State is supposed to offer protectio to its citizes. As for may coutries the exteral aggressor has practically disappeared, they started cocetratig

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