Nigel Farage's UKIP is set to snatch second place from the Conservatives in the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election, according to a definitive survey by polling guru Lord Ashcroft.

The poll suggests Labour, on 61%, will comfortably hold the seat in the vote on February 13, caused by the death of popular Labour ex-minister Paul Goggins.

Such was his popularity among MPs of all parties that when he died last month, the Commons tributes to the former Home Office and Northern Ireland minister were especially warm and heartfelt.

Lord Ashcroft's poll, carried out just over a week before polling day, puts UKIP second on 15%, the Conservatives just behind on 14% and the Liberal Democrats fourth on 5%.

"The results represents a 17-point increase in Labour's vote share since the last election, with the Tories down 12 points, and the Lib Dems down 17," says Lord Ashcroft.

"UKIP have more than quadrupled their vote share in the constituency since 2010 - but if there is to be a surge to take the seat it is either very late or a long way below the radar."

His poll will not surprise senior MPs of all parties, who have been predicting second place for UKIP since the party was runner-up in earlier by-elections in safe Labour seats in northern England such as Rotherham and Middlesbrough.

Mr Farage has predicted second place for his party and complained that UKIP is likely to be defeated by Labour because of postal votes, the same complaint he made when UKIP came second to the LibDems in the Eastleigh by-election.

In the 2010 general election, Mr Goggins had a majority of 7,575 over the Conservatives, with UKIP in fifth place, polling 1,405 votes.

Senior Labour figures are predicting a low turnout next Thursday, partly because of the bad weather, and expect their majority to be well down, even if their percentage share of the vote goes up.