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Gyan wrote:Indira Gandhi was the only Indian leader serious on Balouchistan. Oldies here would remember the dialogues of Rajiv Gandhi from Red Fort - Nani Yaad dila denge or something like that or that capital of Sikh empire was in Lahore. Vajpayee with his Aar paar ki ladai.

How so?

Gyan wrote:The only person who delivered was Narsimha Rao who never uttered a word.

Not really. His famous words- "With you, without you, inspite of you, Kashmir is and shall remain an integral part of India" and "The only remaining issue is the vacation of illegal occupation of PoK by Pakistan" were all delivered from the ramparts of Red Fort (in chaste Urdu no less! NR truly was a scholar.) with that imbecile Riaz Khokhar in attendance. DD cameraman panned over to his sour lemon-sucking face many-a-time during that speech.

Indira Gandhi wanted to free Balochistan but 1977 put paid to that. Setting up such huge mechanised arm of Indian Army and 1974 was part of plan. About Narismha Rao, he never overtly threatened Pakistan with attack or dismemberment but ran a very effective covert action plan against them.

Yeah N Rao was a true genius and patriot. Unfortunately we had a bunch of imbeciles after that with the gujrals, gowdas, vp's, azads and mickey mouse singhs. I just hope that the damage of gujral and rest were repaired or minimal.

All old RAW hands are all praise of IG. Despite her other failings such as emergency, being generous after 71 war, etc., when it come to Pakistan and India's influence in the neighborhood, IG was King..err Queen. Despite having a poor economy, India was undisputed in the sub continent during her tenure and had the guts to stare down Nixon in 71. Any neighbour who had second thoughts such as SL were quickly put in place. Had she continued, not only west pakistan would have been dismembered, Bhutan might have annexed with India on their own volition just like Sikkim did.

After IG, N Rao has delivered the goods. Now its Modi's time. I am confident Modi will equal or even surpass IG when it comes to handling Pukistan.

In whose interests is a restoration of an independent Baluchistan? This is the question that may foreshadow the course of events.

India is an exceptionally cautious foreign policy player, from arms sales to treaties and non-proliferation. If Modi makes a seemingly casual reference to Gilgit Baltistan and Baluchistan, this can now be taken as official government policy. India benefits by deleting a huge swath of Pakistan and its attend resources and 'strategic depth' (whatever that is).

On cue, Altaf Bhai, obviously very drunk, calls out the Pakistani cancer and epicenter of terrorism, Pakis are more distraught than any Baloch problem. Indian Muslims now have written off Pakistan as the saviour and refuge of Indian Muslims, the perennial potential mohajirs; the corpse of the two nation theory, recovered from the Bay of Bengal, is now interred in the Arabian Sea.

Touche.

It is not in the United States interest to have a Chinese naval or elint base on the Arabian Sea/Persian Gulf approaches. It is not in the US interest to have Pakistan an independently viable polity hence CPEC needs to be aborted. Not that there is much expectation of it flourishing.Hence there is a tacit understanding between Modi and the US in this endeavour.

Afghanistan needs a buffer state and the Pakistanis to be preoccupied elsewhere than Kabul.

Iran is a bit of a wild card-it has a potential restive Baloch population but may benefit from the Pakistani contagion being contained at a distance.

I think Balochistan may be a foregone conclusion, the only negotiations need be offered Pakistan is where to sign the surrender documents.

It may be in the Indian interest to make this as prolonged and painful for Pakistan as possible. As I have stated elsewhere, India should not be cynically using the Baloch. There is a need to end the suffering, the killings and disappearances quickly.

A quiet, leafy suburb in this capital of Wales is far removed from the fire and brimstone of everyday life in Balochistan, but there is clearly a frisson in one terraced house since Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke of rights violations in the Pakistani province.

The resident of the house is the “Khan of Kalat” – holder of the respected title that influenced the fortunes of the natural resource-rich region since the 17th century.

He is Mir Suleman Dawood Jan Ahmedzai, 52, who left Pakistan in 2006 and sought refuge in Britain.

It is not only 7,700 km that separate Ahmedzai’s life in Cardiff from that in Kalat, where he owns several palaces and land and once moved around with all the appurtenances of a ruler.

His grandfather acceded the Khanate of Kalat, the largest princely state in the erstwhile Balochistan Agency, to Pakistan in March 1948 “by the barrel of the gun”.

Ahmedzai is reputed to be one of the most acceptable and popular leaders across Balochistan. His writ reportedly runs across the Baloch-inhabited regions of neighbouring Afghanistan and Iran, with the capacity to mobilise a large number of people.

Sporting the traditional Baloch cap, Ahmedzai – seen by some locals as a “king without his kingdom” – spoke to Hindustan Times with enthusiasm about Modi’s remarks, what he and others expect from India, and the implications of China’s presence in the restive Pakistani province for India. Here are the excerpts:

How do you see recent remarks by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Balochistan?We welcome the Indian Prime Minister’s brave and long-awaited stance on Balochistan. We Baloch are looking forward to work with the Indians and others for peace, prosperity and security in south Asia. He will be remembered by the Baloch nation for a long time. I have spoken to a number of tribal chiefs, leaders and people – they are all looking for peace, stability and security. The Baloch, Indian and other nations who have been the victims of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism can together defeat it.

What do you expect from India?India can do a lot diplomatically and about the violation of human rights that your prime minister spoke about. India can help us at the United Nations and at the International Court of Justice. Together with our supporters in the US, we can at least get assets of the leading lights of Pakistan frozen, to begin with. We can send a delegation to New Delhi to meet the prime minister, Indian political parties and parliamentarians to explain our cause. We must explore new ways of cooperation between India and Balochistan. We can help remove the threat to India from its western border.

Critics say Modi’s remarks were just a counter to the Kashmir issue. Do you think he is really interested in Balochistan?We can’t be compared to Jammu and Kashmir. The cynics may say that India will use Balochistan to put pressure on Pakistan to stop sponsoring terrorism in India. Jammu and Kashmir is important to Pakistan because of water and food security. But Indian national security and future economic growth is dependent on an independent Balochistan – how? China and Pakistan will surround India if Baloch aspiration for independence is suppressed and if the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is accomplished. India will be a permanent loser. I believe Mr Modi is interested in India’s national interest, and an independent Balochistan is in India’s national interest.

I am a positive person: I believe Mr Modi is a genuine and courageous man. I also believe nation-states have interests and leaders do what is in the best of their national interest.

What really happened in 2006? Why did you flee Pakistan?I did not flee. I summoned the Baloch ‘jirga’ (council of tribal chiefs) and decided to take the Balochistan case to the International Court of Justice. After I left, Pakistan bought the loyalties of some members of the supreme council – without going into too much detail. The positive side is that I have lobbied with success for an independent Balochistan. For the first time in history, there was a hearing in the US Congress on an independent Balochistan.

What are your plans for Balochistan – do you plan to return; if so, when?I have one plan and that is to regain independence for Balochistan, which was annexed by Pakistan at the point of a barrel. I never had a plan to return to Pakistan, but I have a plan to return to an independent Balochistan.

If the Punjabis (of Pakistan) and Chinese succeed in their CPEC plan, the Baloch will become an ignorable minority and lose their land, culture and way of life permanently. But India will be the greatest loser.

China and Pakistan have a plan for India, I am sure you are aware of it. Pakistan as a state is failing: Islam says take care of your neighbours, but you are poking (your) nose in every neighbour, be it India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, China. We should have the courage to terminate Pakistan’s use of terrorism as state policy.

Do you still plan to pursue the Baloch case at the International Court of Justice?I have never stopped pursuing the case of illegal occupation and human rights violations. We approached the Americans and got a great response from parliamentarians there. I am grateful to the congressmen and women there, NGOs and European members of parliament for their support. I am also grateful to the recent positive remarks of (former Afghan president) Hamid Karzai and the foreign minister of Bangladesh.

The situation in Balochistan is very bad. There are no accurate estimates, but 25,000 people are said to be missing and over a million displaced. Pakistan’s rule over Balochistan has never been legitimate, now it has lost control over Balochistan. The Indian, American, Afghan, Arab states and others should realise that the future is Balochistan, an independent Balochistan.

Britain’s foreign office has stopped mentioning Balochistan in its annual report. Why do you think that is the case?I do not know the reason for that. They may have interests that prompt them not to mention it, but as I said states have interests and means to put pressure on other states to protect their interests. Had the British published the truth, they would have been accused by Pakistan of taking sides. Probably that is why they have chosen not to mention it. But one should ask the foreign office why they have ignored human rights violations in Balochistan.

What is the reality of the accession agreement for the Khanate of Kalat? Did Pakistan go back on the conditions?There is no annexation agreement. Pakistan was allowed by the British and other world powers to invade Balochistan with the barrel of the gun.

Are you in touch with other Baloch leaders?I am not only in touch with political leaders but also with tribal chiefs, political activists and the common people of Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. It is true that in politics we are as not united as we are in culture and tradition. But we are all united for the independence of Balochistan. We will find ways to address our political differences. A leader who ignores public opinion cannot maintain position as a leader.

You once said you would be willing to accept help even from Israel. Do you still hold that thought?We accept help from anyone as long as that help is for regaining the independence of Balochistan, including Israel.

sanjaykumar wrote:In whose interests is a restoration of an independent Baluchistan? This is the question that may foreshadow the course of events.

India is an exceptionally cautious foreign policy player, from arms sales to treaties and non-proliferation. If Modi makes a seemingly casual reference to Gilgit Baltistan and Baluchistan, this can now be taken as official government policy. India benefits by deleting a huge swath of Pakistan and its attend resources and 'strategic depth' (whatever that is).

On cue, Altaf Bhai, obviously very drunk, calls out the Pakistani cancer and epicenter of terrorism, Pakis are more distraught than any Baloch problem. Indian Muslims now have written off Pakistan as the saviour and refuge of Indian Muslims, the perennial potential mohajirs; the corpse of the two nation theory, recovered from the Bay of Bengal, is now interred in the Arabian Sea.

Touche.

It is not in the United States interest to have a Chinese naval or elint base on the Arabian Sea/Persian Gulf approaches. It is not in the US interest to have Pakistan an independently viable polity hence CPEC needs to be aborted. Not that there is much expectation of it flourishing.Hence there is a tacit understanding between Modi and the US in this endeavour.

Afghanistan needs a buffer state and the Pakistanis to be preoccupied elsewhere than Kabul.

Iran is a bit of a wild card-it has a potential restive Baloch population but may benefit from the Pakistani contagion being contained at a distance.

I think Balochistan may be a foregone conclusion, the only negotiations need be offered Pakistan is where to sign the surrender documents.

It may be in the Indian interest to make this as prolonged and painful for Pakistan as possible. As I have stated elsewhere, India should not be cynically using the Baloch. There is a need to end the suffering, the killings and disappearances quickly.

sanjaykumar wrote:Iran is a bit of a wild card-it has a potential restive Baloch population but may benefit from the Pakistani contagion being contained at a distance.

There are very lose parallels between where Iran probably finds itself with respect to Balochistan, and the dilemma that India faced when supporting the Tamil eelam movement in Sri Lanka. The key difference is- as you put it- Iran has a potential restive Baloch population and they'll be highly wary of them getting ideas, should Balochistan manage to secede from Pakistan. Iran probably is also of the view that Saudis will be only too happy to stir the pot in Iran's soft underbelly. Whether it's worth it for Iran to trade in Jandallah nuisance for an independent Balochistan, only they can tell.

If it indeed comes down to an independent Balochistan, I would hazard a guess that Iran may want the entirety of the present province of Balochistan to secede from Pakistan. The new state will inherit an ethnically and geographically divided populace, with enough headaches of its own to keep their focus away from Iran for a while. Iran would like to stretch it to infinity.

sanjaykumar wrote:I think Balochistan may be a foregone conclusion, the only negotiations need be offered Pakistan is where to sign the surrender documents.

It may be in the Indian interest to make this as prolonged and painful for Pakistan as possible. As I have stated elsewhere, India should not be cynically using the Baloch. There is a need to end the suffering, the killings and disappearances quickly.

China is the real wild card in this matter. That they will intervene on Pak's behalf is give. The question is, will they do so like the Soviets did in Afghanistan in 1979, or will they start stoking trouble for India and US?

China doesn't have the capacity to intervene militarily in pakistan. There is no love between the mango unwashed jehadi abdul and polk eating, ramzan banning, uighur supressing chinese. china will try to prop up pakjabi military through weapons and money but lets see for how long.

Bheeshma wrote:China doesn't have the capacity to intervene militarily in pakistan. There is no love between the mango unwashed jehadi abdul and polk eating, ramzan banning, uighur supressing chinese. china will try to prop up pakjabi military through weapons and money but lets see for how long.

Agreed, likes of JUD are the deep state of Pakistan in many ways. If China interferes, then expect Pakjab to tear itself apart. Pak Army is really facing difficult choices here. Without China, they will sink anyway, with China they will drown in their own blood.

The Chinese after 1962 went back to the drawing board. To strengthen their lines they developed their infrastructure but the short supply line of India to the Chinese border and smart positioning of Indian assets by the India military nullified substantially the advantages of their hard built logistics network quickly. - See more at: https://www.myind.net/india-new-approac ... c4.twitter

Can you explain how short supply lines and military placements helped india in nullifying chinese advantage? please feel free to move the discussion to appropriate thread if you think this is OT here.

The Chinese after 1962 went back to the drawing board. To strengthen their lines they developed their infrastructure but the short supply line of India to the Chinese border and smart positioning of Indian assets by the India military nullified substantially the advantages of their hard built logistics network quickly. - See more at: https://www.myind.net/india-new-approac ... c4.twitter

Can you explain how short supply lines and military placements helped india in nullifying chinese advantage? please feel free to move the discussion to appropriate thread if you think this is OT here.

It is a relative measure. Most hubs for India and China are in the plains respectively. Elevated nodes on both sides themselves are dependent on supplies from plains. Connectivity on the really huge plateau of Tibet is the Chinese answer to reaching Indo - China border. Yet, the distance of the supply lines hampers effective usage. They have worked long and hard to mitigate this challenge. We did mostly nothing - barring the current push in building infrastructure. However, we had advantage of geography.

Compare the Chinese situation to ours in NE. We can operate our fighters from plains of Bramhaputra to hit Chinese in Tibet. Very quickly, Chabua turned from a semi training base to a Su 30 base. In 02 yrs of this present GOI, Passighat has been quickly upgraded to Su 30 capable ALG. From my limited understanding, this is huge.

Finally, in the Leh - Laddakh area - India is able to air maintain bases from plains on a daily basis. On the Indo - China border from the Chinese side, it is just not practicle. All road / rail logistics in Tibet also suffer problems of winter and air maintaining from Chinese hinterland is impractical.

As the Chinese built up over a long period, we moved a 100 T 72s recently. That smart positioning has overcome a lot of advantages their infrastructure was providing. We could not have done it so easily if we had equally large distances. The positioning of Bramhos in Arunachal provides us with a similar advantage, IMO

Previous FP mandarins did not have the luxury that Modi does at present. It has nothing to do with india's economy or military. For the first time in two generations Pakistan is bereft of its superpower benefactor. They are vulnerable. India is insulated. Very little to do with personalities.

sanjaykumar wrote:Previous FP mandarins did not have the luxury that Modi does at present. It has nothing to do with india's economy or military. For the first time in two generations Pakistan is bereft of its superpower benefactor. They are vulnerable. India is insulated. Very little to do with personalities.

CPEC is a way for China to bring Pukistan into ASEAN lead Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership-RCEP. RcEP also includes Japan SK, Australia and NZ along with India China. Pukistan have no stake in ASEAN. What better way to bring the two together making CPEC an extension of RCEP. Until recently Chinese went along but with the signing of Trans a Pacific Partnership, they have been making noises and I am not doubtful that RCEP will be modelled on Chinese terms.

Distrupting CPEC makes OBOR non viable, I have stated this and most won't disagree. But it will also stop Chinese takeover of RCEP.

46b$ for CPEC won't materialise. China does not have such a lot of spare cash. CPEC only works if Pukistan stumps up half or more cash.

"Taking the fight back into Pakistan is an important step in controlling Pakistan and taking consequences of aggression back into the enemy territory. It is also critical in stopping the Chinese dragon from truly engulfing India"

The IFS had double filter: left professors run UPSC and Nehruji personally interviews all candidates till.his deathe Made sure no rock the boat type person gets in. Not one IFS has a book or plan for resurgent India from those batches. Then regional cliques and mafias we're alleged to stifle any one who slips thru the filters.The IFS officer killed in Kabul Embassy bombing was one who slipped through.

On Pakistan, especially on the Baloch quetsion, it is imperative that we understand a few realpolitik realities

1. While the cost-benefit analysis of sustaining Pakistan is increasingly facing up to the Diminishing Returns reality for 2 of the 3 principal backers, viz US and Saudi, a significant benefit derived by these powers is that it poses a check on India.

2. Therefore, while the need and intention to sustain Pakistani state as it is declining, it will not go away for all 3 backers. Hence they may want to sustain a Pakistan that is weak and heavily reliant on them, yet pose no threat to their interests in the region or in their own territories. If Paki elite is able to deliver that, they will continue to survive

3. On the Baloch question, while the Baloch have always been as feudal ridden a society as the Pakhtuns, there are a few factors that make them different. One is that they know that like the Kurds, they have no chance of getting independent if they do not get their act together to make themselves useful to the US, China or India. Two, the relatively small population in proportion to the land they cover, makes it easy for them to take the course correction and move away from Islamism of the Wahabi/Taliban variety. Three, the Baloch leadership is hereditary mostly and many of them are aware that they can be relevant only if they move away from a model of pure Islamic state.

4. Keeping this in mind, the Baloch territory is crucial for the One Belt One Way(OBOR) linkage for China in its endeavor to create a radial of such links spanning in different directions based on their Centre of the World worldview of Chung Wo (Chinese word for Central or Middle Country/Kingdom). The CPEC as is it know by the Pakis will succeed or fail on the level of security that will be there for it in Baloch country.

5. The fact that NaMo raised it with Xi a couple of days back clearly shows that India is making it known to the third benefactor, that their rump rentier entity is in no position to deliver that for China, unless China plays ball with India.

6. In fact the entry point into Pakistan (Balochistan) and the exit point into China (Gilgit/Baltistan) both can become insecure as well as, and note this point carefully gentle rakshaks, the entry point into China (Xinjinag) can be places of extreme turbulence if India wants that.

Hence the recent actions by NaMo of raising costs and diminishing returns for supporting Pakistani survival with each of the 3 principal supporters are indeed indications of a foreign policy that is :

(i) Completely awake to the opportunities and threats that abound in the neighbourhood

(ii) Aware of the real-politik dynamics and agile enough to use them to shape the direction of trends that favour Indian National Interests as opposed to being reactive

(iii) Bold and imaginative enough to take initiatives that will have long term impact

It is under these circumstances, that one should examine the possibility of the artificial entity called Pakistan breaking up through a "controlled"implosion or uncontrolled civil war.

While it is easy to come to the conclusion that given the 3 principal sponsors have not yet come to the point of abandonment of Pakistan, the costs are increasing day by day and an alert India is displaying commendable strategic adroitness in ensuring that the strategic options and space is shrinking for Pakistan.

India has also been following a pro-active and pragmatic policy of engaging with all the 3 sponsors of Pakistan with a refreshing candour. Not only has India been raising their costs for supporting this epi-center of global terror, it has also offered to break from moving away from its traditional suspicions about each of them and engage in a way that India becomes a far more beneficial partner to pursue for them.

By being aware of the changing macro-economic and political trends, India has been able to move quickly to capitalize on the internal pressures that the 3 backers are facing to drive home the fact that it is better to engage with India rather than to try and contain its rise.

What is more refreshing is to see that the Indian state is not being uni-dimensional in this. They are forging diplomatic, economic, environmental and military links that will lock them into an engagement paradigm that offers a lot more to them. All this without compromising on its sovereign decision making capabilities or its strategic options.

To me this stems from a recalibration of the fundamental philosophy of how Indian state conducts its foreign policy. It stems from viewing the world as one interconnected whole, captured by the dictum Vasudeiva Kutumbam. It also stems from the dictum of promoting Dharma as a way of life and conduct of relations between individuals, states and societies and in between species and nature based on the Mahavakya of our times Dharmo Rakhsati Rakshitaha. It stems from the dictum that conduct of relations based on pragmatic assessment of strengths.

Moving on from these fundamental aspects of principles and theories, India has its task cut out in terms of the fast changing scenario in its immediate neighbourhood. From a purely military capabilities what does it mean?

1. India has to develop "Stand-off"capabilities that can ensure punitive action against command and control nodes as well as enforce sanctions/restrictions that may be imposed in the future

2. India has to acquire the capability to capture, secure and sanitize large territories within Pakistan to handle the displaced people from a civil war like situation.

3. India should have the ability to quickly deploy across long distances to secure energy sources, protect economic and strategic assets or extricate Indian diaspora

4. The capability to handle multiple fronts or theatres in a unified manner that brings together all its military capabilities and assets under a unified command system

Now, each of the above mentioned strategic military capability actually translates into a sea change in terms of equipment, doctrine, command structures and technologies. If we break this down along those lines, it will give you a clear picture of what is needed and also a general direction of Indian Planning and Policy perspectives - both from a foreign policy and Defence point of view.

That would be another lengthy post. Till then, gentle rakshaks, reflect on this latest ramble!

Panduranghari wrote:Rajaram saar, you are giving too much value to our supposed capability. Under currently active system, we are just one step away from being napunsak. As much as we wish to believe we have the ability, our capabilities have been constrained by short sighted policies since 1947. We are weak. And until this international system is brought down, we wont make it to the big table. Just for eg. The weak France and UQ can dictate international policy is proof enough. China also knows this. They thought 2008 Anglo saxon crash was the moment when they believed their time has come. They were proven wrong and today China is much weaker than 2008 just on account if 371% increase in debt. Even they know it. They were aiming to achieve economic parity with US by 2023 and military parity by 2049. Though they wish to say they are on track, they know the goals can only be achieved by same old manufacturing model which is under severe threat due to global demand destruction. OBOR is their hope of getting out of the logjam. All -SCO,AIIB, CPEC is to make OBOR successful. Reversal of Russian demographic trend has caught Chinks off guard. The reversal of 1 child policy was their response to this. But by 2030, half of Chinese workforce will disappear. We see very smartly, western vested interests are promoting automation as an answer to this. Follow a dude called Worth Wray on twitter. He is on this mission. He most likely is American deep state. Where does this leave India? Not in a too bad state. But we are inconsequential to both US and China- eagle and dragon. Ramana saar was correct- this is a snake fight to death between eagle and steroid pumped up lizard who believes it's a dragon. We dont figure in their calculations. We have been defanged and until Modi becomes a Bismarck, we wont get manufacturing we so wish we have. Why would American deep state move manufacturing from China to India? For that to happen, America has to collapse first. Thats pretty much a wasted ramble because there are many holes in it.

sudeepj wrote:Modi ji going to Pak is crucial in signalling to the entire world that there is are advocates for peace in India at the highest level who are willing to go the extra mile putting personal political capital at risk, but there is no one listening in Pakistan. This is an extremely important message that must go across.

If Pakistan is to be sorted out, it can't be done by India alone. At the very least, we must have at least one super power on our side. This was the case in 71 and should be the case today. Not least because Pakistan has the complete backing of the moronic Xi Jinping whose murderous malice has not been matched by any Chinese leader since Mao. To the baat bahadurs, I say, even the foreign minister of the USA, which is a power all by itself has been reduced to whining and withholding 300 million dollars of a billion dollars in aid. If some Indians think this poison pit is going to be easy to clean, they are living in a fools paradise.

Recently, commenting on high minded OpEds by the Lutyens englishwallas, an official of the IFS now deputed to the PMO tweeted 'I would rather have the actual high ground than the moral high ground'. And that the '..conduct of international diplomacy is and has always been completely amoral.. only national interests matter'. Lastly, that 'world public opinion is immaterial.. unless its crucial to affecting decisions that impact your national interests'. This is the school of thought that is currently prevailing in the South Block.

Have faith in Modi ji and his team. They are young and have a steeliness to them that I think is equal to the task.

PS: If at all Modi ji goes to Pakistan, it will be for a multilateral meet, not for a summit meeting with the Pak establishment. I can imagine the amount of indigestion it will give to PakMil and Pak achors as he repeats his message of '..one nation in South Asia being the fount of terror..', while the leaders of Bangladesh, Nepal, SriLanka, Bhutan nod in agreement.. And there wont be a thing Pak establishment can do about it.

We aint' "player" yet but indication is given, intention is shown and foundation being laid down for active participation. Past was aghast, future will be shaped by what we do know.So Yeh Lamho ki nahi, Lambe Lambe Waqt ki Shatranji Chaal hai.

If you see my post, I have not called out India has having the requisite capabilities and nor have I said that we have accomplished much in terms of hastening the implosion or Pakistan or curbing China's putsch with its OBOR. However, we can say, with observed evidence of actions by the GOI that it has shifted clearly from a purely reactive mode. That is the central theme of that post.

As you observed rightly, we have never pursued policies solely driven by National Interests but included an ideological dimension and unnatural expectations from other states. That is being changed. The change is right across the board in terms of fundamental principles, holistic articulation of National Interests and Objectives, Initiatives taken to shape events to meet them, doctrines and capability building etc. And it is beginning to show as actions that demonstrate that intent. I have cited a few examples earlier that substantiate that change.

What is clearly evident is that change. What is even more clearly evident is the vast gaps that exist in what India wants to achieve and the capabilities needed for the same. Actually the last paragraph of my post above gives the basic contours of the areas in which substantial and significant gaps exists and therefore the extent of work that stares at us. Bear in mind that we have to get our act together across the board with a short span of time if we have too capitalise on the momentum generated by the rare window of opportunity. A window that is framed by favourable real-politik alignment, adverse conditions for antagonists, internal growth acceleration and nationalistic and focussed leadership.

I am merely giving a personal reading here of what I see as the big picture. It may not be completely correct, but it is based on observed evidence rather than inferences of intent from statements.

A really well written piece. Thank you for taking the time to frame it so well and articulate it.

I would like to see more BRF alumni write extensively in several online fora. Please do not underestimate the knowledge and perspectives gained here and your own talents. It is being welcomed, it is being read and it is making an impact in the thinking of an increasing number of Indians who are looking to get a new and nationalistic perspective on happenings. They do not want to trust the traditional sources of information to make up their world view.

A really well written piece. Thank you for taking the time to frame it so well and articulate it.

I would like to see more BRF alumni write extensively in several online fora. Please do not underestimate the knowledge and perspectives gained here and your own talents. It is being welcomed, it is being read and it is making an impact in the thinking of an increasing number of Indians who are looking to get a new and nationalistic perspective on happenings. They do not want to trust the traditional sources of information to make up their world view.

We can make an impact where it counts.

Thank You, Raja Ram ji. Really do hope to write more. As always, there is always the marg darshan available on BRF and the sheer knowledge to be gained from posters here. Our exchanges here are very useful and enlightening.

I would also like to stress on the fact that more Rakshaks need to start writing stuff and putting their thoughts in Public Space.

independence of baluchistan to its logical conclusion may be a mirage-large land (~40%) with <5%of pakistan population. hence will not be able to withstand assault on baluchistan by tsp army. pashtuns/afghan refugees make up upto estimated 30% population ->difficult to ascertain due to lack of census. baluchis may be in minority with lot of killings,reduced fertility rate, migrtaion to other areas of tsp and abroad along with influx of non baluchis.Though all baluchis are sunnis, they are not of jihadi variety but this is chnaging with lack of work/employment and joining of some youth to radical orgs in tsp.

in iran, sistan is one of the poorest provinces like tsp province, large area with less popualtion. Iran is majority shia with baluchis sunnis. some conflicts here between the 2 sects.chabahar port which India is collaborating with iran is here.

keep the pot boiling here.

Meanwhile POk is more ameanable to come back rightfully to Indian rule with time .

Krishna,Once Pakjab gets downsized to its natural space, there is no need for the large Army which they wont be bale to afford. Most likely it will be a police force for law and order duties. So that fear of actualizing is remote.

Also good points on Iran and its concerns with Sistan and its Baluch population.

The mess in West Asia happened with the tinkering by Anglo-Saxons after Ottoman Turkey's defeat in WWI. All this will be put to rest once Balochistan is freed. It ends the W.W> Hunter and Wilfrid Scawen Blunt's project to make Punjabi Muslims the flag bearers for the British Empire. It undermines the Ibn Saud takeover of Hejaz. And restores the balance in Asia to the old normal.

Rajaram wrote:Bear in mind that we have to get our act together across the board with a short span of time if we have too capitalise on the momentum generated by the rare window of opportunity. A window that is framed by favourable real-politik alignment, adverse conditions for antagonists, internal growth acceleration and nationalistic and focused leadership.

Correct History/Vidhata/Fates all do not give luxury of seeking a time and place but to seize the moment or 'Carpe Diem' . Hence Chanakya suggest in his Fifth Way to prepare for war or confrontation when the first four ways don't work and to be ready to seize the moment with what you have.

I hold you in high regard and you are a very erudite person. I was merely critiquing your very nuanced position. While me amongst many youngsters here look forward to your guidance in framing the Indian position, I do wonder - Will Modi be the Lone Ranger battling it out. A few young baboons on Twitter are very western in their perspective and it's these boots on the ground, he has got to rely in executing his policy.

While I wont disagree there is a perceptible change in the approach by PMO, many other ministers seem to have no grasp on the grand narrative- either due to lack of knowledge or 'difference anxiety'.

Too many apparatchiks inherited by the GOI have been defanged by sops (by west and Pakis). While some consider Bharat Karnads position is maximalist, what stops government from following through with the recommended approach?

The usual things are not working out and Modi ji will have to show something for his foreign policy. 2 years of old ways has not worked. Why not go the whole 9 yards?

Very positive to see that subsequent to our Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighting excesses committed by the Islamic Republic of Pakistan’s Punjabi dominated Military, coverage by Indian Media of the topic of oppression of minorities in the Islamic Republic seems to have increased.

I look forward to the continued elevated role of our media in providing moral support to the Balochi, Pathan, Sindhi, and Mohajir victims of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan’s Punjabi dominated Military besides of course moral support for our fellow citizens of Kashmiri origin suffering under illegal Islamic Republic of Pakistan occupation:

While it is not apparent, I am reasonably confident, based on credible information, that the Vision Document that was prepared before the last general Elections was not an ordinary exercise, but one that involved wide ranging discussions and participation from experts drawn from a very wide circle. Not only was the Vision Document prepared, it was also accompanied by a detailed Road Map for each of the Key Objectives/Goals.

What is also evident now was that despite the efforts, they had grossly underestimated the level of external influence in every key institution of State and in the much wider eco-system of power and influence. The initial time for clean up envisaged is not enough and it is a lot more complicated to do so.

Having said that, I am also quite confident that the leadership in the Cabinet, including some of the younger members have the requisite information and an understanding of the way ahead. While we from the outside, feel that this indeed not enough both in terms of scale and speed of clean up, the only consolation that I gather from various sources, is that so too is the leadership and they are trying to move ahead with greater speed with a mantra - On Maximum Consensus, Minimum Controversy Areas - Move with Speed.

The idea is to get moving and achieve a momentum of positive change so that it can give the Government the credibility and mandate to make the moves in more complex issues. This also is the case with Strategic and Foreign Policy initiatives.

This, I believe is closer to a more objective assessment, while the more popular narratives are based on individual perceptions, biases etc. The glass is half full/empty based on one's POV. What is more important, for the more discerning, is to look at the actions on the ground, to get a more balanced view of things.

My attempt is on those lines and I believe we all have the wherewithal to do this and start contributing to a nationalistic narrative shorn of hyperbole and biases. It will also contribute in fostering an environment of public support to a more nationalistic agenda of change that the government is pursuing. Do not forget that this government is one, which, after a long time, is also making Public Partnership into Nation Building as a foundational aspect for ushering change.

Examples abound of how this kind of National Mission involvement was used to rebuild countries from the Soviet Union, to Germany, Japan, Britain, Singapore, France, Korea and to Deng's China! My submission therefore, is for right thinking Indians to not get frustrated by perceived lack of action but get into action mode and involve themselves in some way towards the renaissance that is happening in India.

I can say this based on my small interactions and endeavors in contributing to the Nationalist cause in the small, big village called Chennai! Take it for what it is worth!

"I learned today that Baluchistan is a province with around 20,00,000 Marathi descendants. This province was forcefully merged with Pakistan in 1948. Since then there were 4 major revolt for independence in Balochistan. Three were led by people of Marathi descendants.

How these people of Marathi descendants went and settled in Balochistan?

In the third battle of Panipat, Marathas were defeated. It is estimated that around fifty to seventy five thousand soldiers of Pune's Peshwas were imprisoned and taken to Balochistan which was part of Afghanistan as slaves.

These people are even today known by following names -1. Peshwani Maratha (relatives of Peshwas who were captured. It was assumed that one of the brother of then Peshwa was also captured and taken to Balochistan)2. Bugti Maratha3. Kalpar Maratha4. Nothani Maratha5. Shambani Maratha6. Mosani Maratha7. Shau Maratha.

There are 20 such castes which ends with Maratha. They are linked to caste system of then Maharashtra.

People of these caste even today call their mother Ayi (what Marathis call their mother) and not ammi jan. They worship Shivaji Maharaj and Peshwas even today.

Whenever reference of Maratha or slogan Har Har Mahadev, like are heard in Bollywood movies they stand and give such slogans.

Considering above, the development in Balochistan would be interesting to watch and observe as they are related to our own people who are leading the battle.

The above information can be verified based on around 20 books written by eminent historians in Marathi.

{Info here compiled by DV Sridharan}"

The above is a Whatsapp forward I got in one of the groups. D.V Sridharan is usually trustworthy. Need to know if the above is indeed true from Maratha experts here.

Raja Ram wrote:"I learned today that Baluchistan is a province with around 20,00,000 Marathi descendants. This province was forcefully merged with Pakistan in 1948. Since then there were 4 major revolt for independence in Balochistan. Three were led by people of Marathi descendants.

How these people of Marathi descendants went and settled in Balochistan?

In the third battle of Panipat, Marathas were defeated. It is estimated that around fifty to seventy five thousand soldiers of Pune's Peshwas were imprisoned and taken to Balochistan which was part of Afghanistan as slaves.

These people are even today known by following names -1. Peshwani Maratha (relatives of Peshwas who were captured. It was assumed that one of the brother of then Peshwa was also captured and taken to Balochistan)2. Bugti Maratha3. Kalpar Maratha4. Nothani Maratha5. Shambani Maratha6. Mosani Maratha7. Shau Maratha.

There are 20 such castes which ends with Maratha. They are linked to caste system of then Maharashtra.

People of these caste even today call their mother Ayi (what Marathis call their mother) and not ammi jan. They worship Shivaji Maharaj and Peshwas even today.

Whenever reference of Maratha or slogan Har Har Mahadev, like are heard in Bollywood movies they stand and give such slogans.

Considering above, the development in Balochistan would be interesting to watch and observe as they are related to our own people who are leading the battle.

The above information can be verified based on around 20 books written by eminent historians in Marathi.

{Info here compiled by DV Sridharan}"

The above is a Whatsapp forward I got in one of the groups. D.V Sridharan is usually trustworthy. Need to know if the above is indeed true from Maratha experts here.

Thanks for the info.

I have been seeing lot of stuff in social media and trying to read little more about Baluchistan.despite many years of islamic savagery, people here still cling to regular Hindu customs which are normally associated in India.

Now this makes sense.

many deep converts who do it on their own will forsake everything but when under duress or other unconvincing reasons retain some of the traditions of their former religion so as not to be left out when time is ripe to come back to fomer religion.

This is one of the understated reasons for church to digest other cultures and incorporate into itself. so the convertor feels at home without need to go to fomer religion.

I think they merged into those tribes. Rather than forming these tribes themselves, but some tribes also amalgamated with these new (new then) entrants and adopted some of their customs as well. Especially the bugtis, I do not know for sure about others.

Speaking in the Lok Sabha on April 21, 2003, about his just-concluded visit to Jammu and Kashmir, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee spelt out his perspective on the way to deal with the complex issues concerning the State. He spoke of major economic projects in areas such as the development of road and rail infrastructure and promoting employment for the youth.

Referring to relations with Pakistan he said: “We have extended our hand of friendship to Pakistan. Let us see how Pakistan responds. Stopping cross-border infiltration and destruction of terrorist infrastructure can open the door for talks. Talks can take place on all issues including Jammu and Kashmir.” He asserted: “The gun can solve no problems. Issues can be guided by the three principles of insaniyat (humanism), jamhooriyat (democracy) and kashmiriyat (Kashmir’s legacy of amity).”

Paying the price

Vajpayee’s words came after the military face-off with Pakistan following the (December 2001) attack on Parliament had ended, in October 2002. Back channel talks with Pakistan were under way, resulting in a ceasefire across the Line of Control in November 2003. In January 2004, India agreed to resume dialogue with Pakistan, following an assurance from President Pervez Musharraf that “territory under Pakistan’s control” would not be used for terrorism against India. Dialogue was resumed only after this categorical assurance.

While Pakistan broadly abided by this assurance as long as Musharraf was president, terrorism resumed in 2008, with an attack on our embassy in Kabul, followed by the 26/11 strike (in Mumbai). We ignored Vajpayee’s preconditions for dialogue and paid a heavy price. We have now asserted that dialogue with Pakistan and terrorism cannot proceed side by side. Efforts are under way for a “dialogue” with “Kashmiris”.

But this dialogue has to be inclusive. It is not meant just to accommodate the “aspirations” of the people of the Kashmir Valley, who constitute some 52 per cent of the population, while residing in around 16 per cent of the territory of J&K. Those representing the people of Jammu, Kargil and Ladakh, including from communities such as the Gujjars and Bakarwals, have to be included in any comprehensive dialogue. While the security situation has to be managed with firmness, it is time to frankly state that the essence of kashmiriyat is tolerance and respect for pluralism. Those calling for Nizam-e-Mustafa while hiding behind stone-pelting children and lobbing grenades at security forces, are not believers in kashmiriyat. They are cowards and have to be dealt with accordingly.

Regional cooperation

Should New Delhi talk to the separatist Hurriyat Conference? It has to be remembered that terrorists linked to the ISI, assassinated the two tallest leaders in the Hurriyat — Mirwaiz Muhammad Farooq and Abdul Ghani Lone. Those now in the Hurriyat are either Islamist extremists such as Syed Ali Shah Geelani, who is ideologically Pakistani, or those like Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, who is not likely to oppose Pakistani fiats.

In any case, the Hurriyat leaders are known to be in “continuous touch” with security agencies on both sides of the Line of Control. While the security situation has to be managed judiciously but firmly, it is also time to assert that the essence of Kashmiriyat is respect for pluralism and diversity. It is imperative to continue efforts to develop a broad consensus between major political parties in both New Delhi and Srinagar, on measures to move ahead.

With Pakistan launching a worldwide campaign against India, the time has also come to turn the screws diplomatically on Pakistan, which has been the main stumbling block in promoting cooperation in South Asia, on issues of connectivity, economic integration and terrorism. India has been bypassing Pakistani objections by working with its eastern Saarc neighbours, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh, to promote road and rail connectivity, and even energy corridors, by interlinking energy grids.

We should work with these neighbours to promote a sub-regional economic union excluding Pakistan, given its disinclination to abide by the provisions of the Saarc Free Trade Agreement in its trade with India. Bangladesh has expressed interest in moving towards an economic union, while lamenting Pakistan’s negativism on issues of regional integration which Saarc heads of government agreed to at the Kathmandu summit in 2003.

Pakistan’s negativism was also evident in its categorical rejection of India’s offer of orbiting a Saarc satellite for the benefit of all Saarc countries. India is going ahead with this proposal. Bangladesh and Afghanistan downgraded their presence at recent meetings of Saarc home and finance ministers in Islamabad. India joined Bangladesh and Afghanistan, downgrading its participation at the August meeting of Saarc finance ministers. Pakistan is now regarded as a state sponsor of terrorism by three Saarc countries — Bangladesh, India and Afghanistan. It would be appropriate if the three countries held close consultations on issues such as participation at the highest level in the Islamabad Saarc summit. What better way to globally expose Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism?

The Durand Line

We should, meanwhile, continue functional cooperation across the entire spectrum of Saarc activities, by maintaining contacts at the official level while participating selectively in ministerial meetings as long as Pakistan holds the chairmanship of Saarc. There are other forums such as Bimstec which should be utilised more vigorously for strengthening South Asian economic cooperation, given Pakistan’s role as a spoiler in Saarc.

The time has also now come for India to review its unquestioning acceptance of the Durand Line, imposed on Afghanistan by an expansionist British Empire in 1893. No Afghan ruler, including Mullah Omar, has accepted the Durand Line as the international border with Pakistan.

Pashtuns have traditionally held that their homeland extends to Attock, on the banks of the Indus. There have recently been clashes along the Durand Line when Afghans resisted Pakistani moves to give it the trappings of an international border.

Is any national interest served by continuing to show the Durand Line as the international border between Afghanistan and Pakistan in India’s official maps? Is it not time to internationally acknowledge that India regards the Durand Line as a disputed border? We would be respecting the memory of one of our greatest freedom fighters, Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan, by doing so.

http://www.thenewsminute.com/article/tn ... onth-49701TNM Exclusive: Baloch separatist leader to formally seek asylum in India this monthBugti fled his hometown Dera Bugti in Balochistan in 2005-2006 following the assassination of his grandfather Akbar Bugti.Chitra Subramaniam| Sunday, September 11, 2016 - 12:42rahumdagh Bugti, the President of the Baloch Republican Party (BRP) will formally seek asylum in India later this month, he has told The News Minute (TNM). This move comes after weeks of consultations with members of the BRP leadership living in Balochistan and Europe and with international lawyers well-versed in matters of third country asylum and responsibilities of the international community.“I have convened a meeting of BRP’s central committee (September 18th – 19th) in Geneva and we have three key agenda items," Bugti told TNM is an exclusive conversation. The meeting will delve into three related agenda items which they see as a critical step in their movement towards independence from Pakistan. The first is to formally seek asylum for “myself, my family and other people from Balochistan for whom we are requesting that Indian open its doors.” Seven members of the 16-member BRP will be present at the Geneva meeting which will be coordinating its work with a team of international lawyers. "If the Indian authorities grant us asylum, we would be there at the earliest,“ he said. “The second point in our agenda is to see what international legal instruments are available to us to sue Pakistani Generals who are committing genocide and mass extermination of the Baloch people. Mass killings and missing persons are a daily occurrence and we will explore all our legal options to bring the Pakistani Generals to face justice,” Bugti said. He added that in addition to Geneva, BRP members from Germany, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom (UK) will also individually explore options to sue Pakistani general in countries where they are seeking asylum. “Finally, we need to discuss what to do with China which is exploiting out natural resources. This is being done without the will of the Baloch people and this must be stopped,” Bugti said. He added that taking on China was 'no easy task' but hoped Beijing would see that Pakistan was being increasingly isolated in the international arena. ....Gautam

It is becoming clearly evident that the Baloch will be formally extended diplomatic support by the GoI in due course. There are a few reasons for this:

1. It is important that there is an official endorsement for Indian support to their cause from the Baloch diaspora, BRP is one of the main groups. There are others. It gives us the leverage to pursue their cause in international fora. There is precedents for this, Mukti Bahini endorsement, Tibet Govt in Exile, PLO, SWAPO (Namibia, ANC (South Africa) etc.

2. From a strategic perspective, this will help the Indian Intelligence Agencies to organize networks both within Balochistan and across the World wide diaspora to gain information and data on events happening on the ground including the CPEC

3. It will also be a clear signal to China that their OBOR/CPEC is clearly not going to take off until the Baloch question is resolved bringing in international scrutiny into Chinese plans to extract Baloch wealth and minerals and use their territory. The very fact that Baloch are willing to take on China on this is possible only if India and through some extension other powers are going to back them.

4. The statement by Barhamdagh Bugti seems to be part of a clearly thought out series of steps in a larger Baloch strategy crafted by MAD. Apparently according to a Zee News reports that I saw (looks the entire story was a plant by GoI), the 72 second mention by the PM from the ramparts of Red Fort is a result of a long and detailed exercise done by a task force. The number of people mentioned in that programme includes some prominent ones that we all know about. More than 700 hours of discussions have taken place as per the report. It goes to show that 72 second intervention cannot be the only result of such an exercise. This statement by BRP is likely to be an indicator of things to unfold

In a pincer move, if Ghani follows through on his recent warning to Pakistan about access through Pakistan to India for Afghanistan, it will put the CPEC into even more questionable territory in terms of viability. The Chinese are now beneficiaries of their own traditional "blessing" - May you live in interesting times!

Raja Ram wrote:...if Ghani follows through on his recent warning to Pakistan about access through Pakistan to India for Afghanistan, it will put the CPEC into even more questionable territory in terms of viability.

CPEC is a massive land grab fraud at throwaway rates and a self-employment con scheme concocted by the chini birathers. Land access to Gwadar is the strategic prize.

Xi Jinping,on a state visit to al bakistan, wrote in an open editorial stating: "This will be my first trip to Pakistan, but I feel as if I am going to visit the home of my own brother." Visit or permanently take over? If the goal was to put his brother's wives for sale, his brothers' kids to beg, take over his brother's house and servants, and milk his cows, then Jinping has succeeded because he has a dumb, witless and broke collaborator for a brother.

But, why should India care? Native al bakistanis have been doing this for centuries. Why stop now? Chinis will now have military access by road to the gulf and India is being encircled and security of the middle east will largely be with the chinis. One way to prevent this from happening is by politically separating Baluchistan and Sindh from pakjabistan. A contiguous and friendly land mass that connects Gujarat and Rajasthan in India with Iran and Afghanistan is the solution. Trade will flourish in all four directions.