Posted by Joshua on Friday, November 30th, 2012

…..A BIGGER LEBANON
Syria’s troubles go well beyond warring ethnic and confessional groups, to the fact that Syria as a political entity—as a nation—hardly exists. To be sure, the country’s two major cities, Damascus and Aleppo, have very long histories and strong localized identities. However, until the twentieth century, Syria was never a country unto itself. During the half millennium when it was part of the Ottoman Empire, Syria was not even constituted as a single administrative district within the empire, but was split among several districts. The invention of modern Syria following the First World War was based largely on agreements between the French and the British. Syria was not unique in this. Indeed, the modern borders of scores of countries in the developing world were based more on the interests of the colonial powers than on any historical or geographic reality. What was different about Syria was that both the French colonial power and the ruling Arabs in Damascus worked to deny the construction of a modern Syrian national identity…………….

WHICH OUTCOME?
Logically, the current round of Syria’s civil war must end in one of four ways: regime victory, opposition victory, stalemate with no end, or stalemate leading to a political resolution. The first two outcomes are the worst for all parties, and the last is the best plausible outcome. But for the better options to be plausible, both sides must believe they can actually lose the civil war. This is key. Without an acknowledgment of possible defeat, neither the regime nor the opposition will accept a grand bargain in which compromise is central………..

THE UNCONVENTIONAL OPTION
The United States and its allies are wise to resist direct military involvement in Syria in the form of invasion, an air campaign, or a “no-fly zone” (which would quickly lead to direct military engagement). Likewise, Washington has been smart to resist providing advanced military hardware, such as anti-aircraft missiles, to an opposition with significant elements that would just as easily turn these weapons against American targets.

That said, the flow of funds and small arms to the opposition from various parties has been an important source of balancing in the civil war, preventing the regime thus far from winning outright. However, the turn toward a Chechnya strategy of using airpower to destroy urban pockets of rebellion does threaten the opposition with outright defeat and should be countered in smart ways. The West was sometimes criticized for adopting a Machiavellian posture during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war by hoping that neither side won outright, but such criticism was not warranted.

A clear victory for either side would have been a disaster for the region and the world. The same approach is warranted in Syria: working to prevent either side from winning a total victory so that both sides will be more inclined to reach a compromise. To accomplish this, the United States and its allies must consider the use of unconventional warfare techniques undertaken directly by very small numbers of allied forces, not indigenous Syrian ones. For example, Turkish special forces, working secretly with their American ally, could surreptitiously shoot down a handful of Syrian jets that are attacking Syrian cities. That alone might ground the Syrian Air Force entirely;….

Such a balancing approach might get us to the best plausible outcome—a negotiated solution— and it would likely prevent either of the two worst outcomes. It is not pretty, but it might actually work.

The regime is running out of helicopters, money and oil.scarecity of food in Damascus will cause revolt among the people ,sooner or later there will be infiltration of rebels to inside Damascus, Assad troops in Deraa will be isolated and will be defeated as in area arround Aleppo.

Glen Robinson’s so-called analysis is a piece of crap. His analogies with other wars are fundamentally flawed as well as his unsupported statistics. He presented his so-called four options from purely neo-colonial perspective and interests. The Syrians will definitely defeat this neo-colonialism and emerge victorious thanks to the heroism of the FSA.

I will read the full article from Glen Robinson, but on first glance I do not understand what he is proposing as a solution.

First, he asserts that a clear victory for either side of the civil war is the worst possible outcome, which is arguable. Perhaps the total victory he imagines is one in which either the ruling regime or armed rebel/national coalition completely destroys the armed might of the other — or forces it to sue for peace.

I don’t think that is what Robinson means. But it is very close to the position of the Ghufrans of the world if it means that once the regime realizes it might lose the war, it will be more likely to negotiate the terms of its departure from seats of the highest authority in the land.

Secondly, he asserts that the very best way to tip the balance toward a ‘compromise’ between the two implacable poles is for the USA to act — “its allies must consider the use of unconventional warfare techniques.”

Let’s say this is worth considering, since in his plan this will lead to a quicker end to the daily death toll.

So, one example of unconventional warfare is the deployment of “very small numbers of allied forces, not indigenous Syrian ones.”

Okay. What will these very small numbers of non-Syrians do inside?

Well. In his imagination these secret non-Syrian infiltrators “could surreptitiously shoot down a handful of Syrian jets that are attacking Syrian cities.”

I get stuck there. If a handful of Syrian jets shot from the sky could ground the Syrian air forces …

Why not allow (as has been allowed) a ‘very small number’ of anti-air arms to be used by Syrians themselves? What is the difference between this and the standard America Knows Best? (or American Must Supervise) …

Old Homs which is mostly destroyed has been under seige for 171 days while both parties still think they can win, robinson’s piece offended some people because it challenges their pride and their urge to retaliate:
“Logically, the current round of Syria’s civil war must end in one of four ways: regime victory, opposition victory, stalemate with no end, or stalemate leading to a political resolution. The first two outcomes are the worst for all parties, and the last is the best plausible outcome. But for the better options to be plausible, both sides must believe they can actually lose the civil war. This is key. Without an acknowledgment of possible defeat, neither the regime nor the opposition will accept a grand bargain in which compromise is central………..
Amen

It was difficult to get information from Syria today but it looks more likely than not that the regime is on the offense in Ghoutah and around Damascus,it is also almost certain that the government turned off those routers that allow Internet in Syria, many are now fearful that this was done in preparation for a large scale violent campaign after the government lost many positions in the north and the east. I find it absolutely amazing that many of you are still denying the fact that most of Syria’s friends and enemies alike want this war to continue, sending jihadists with weapons on one hand and allowing this regime to bomb Syrian cities on the other hand is nothing but a criminal behavior, Syrian lives are not worth much nowadays.

I did not know the owner of car wash drive thru can write about Syria, but live and learn. I mean what the heck; I spent 10 minutes searching about him online, nada, nothing, and not even any credential on the bottom available!!!! If you want me to read, gimme some references will ya.

Never mind I found something about him here at the bottom of this page:

Glenn E. Robinson, Ph.D., Board Member top^
Glenn E. Robinson has been on the faculty at the Naval Postgraduate School since 1991. His BA and PhD were both earned at the University of California at Berkeley, where he remains affiliated with the Center for Middle Eastern Studies. A specialist in Middle East political and security matters, Robinson has authored or co-authored three books and over 40 journal articles and book chapters. He has been a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Jordan and a Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, and has studied at the American University in Cairo, Yarmouk University in Jordan, and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Robinson has been active with the US Agency for International Development in implementing and assessing development projects throughout the Arab world.

Robinson has been locally active in promoting good land use in Carmel Valley and Monterey County. He has been on the Board of the Carmel Valley Association since 2000, including four years as President. He was a founder of the Carmel Valley Forum, which led the effort to put the question of incorporating a Town of Carmel Valley before the voters of Carmel Valley (and even was voted to be on the Town’s first Council had Measure G passed). As a long-time member of the Carmel Valley Land Use Advisory Committee, Robinson co-authored a new master plan for Carmel Valley, before the Board of Supervisors decided to move in a more pro-growth direction.

Robinson has coached in the Carmel Community Girls Softball league since 1999. He and his wife Elizabeth have three daughters.

I can’t confirm the following yet but this what I could gather till I reach my father to get the full picture:

– The hero Maher Assad has confirmed a martyr, but his body (or what left from it) is not in Syria, RIP Maher.
– Bashar is not physically attending the meeting, he’s addressing them via a teleconference bridge
– The meeting is still going and more high ranking Sunni officers have been asked to join the meeting.

I find it absolutely amazing that many of you are still denying the fact that most of Syria’s friends and enemies alike want this war to continue, sending jihadists with weapons on one hand and allowing this regime to bomb Syrian cities on the other hand is nothing but a criminal behavior, Syrian lives are not worth much nowadays.

I do not understand this. I get that Ghufran thinks many of the SCers are denying facts, but what are these facts?

— most of Syria’s friends (I think he means state and substate actors; Syria’s friends in this then are Russia, Iran, China, Belarus, Cuba and DPRK).

— Syria’s enemies by this calculation are too many to list (acknowledged at war/truce with Israel, enemy number one, and on down the line to countries like France, UK, Germany, Italy, and other first-world small/rich powers like Canada, Australia, etc).

So, Syria’s friends/allies are denying facts. Which facts?

That both groups want the war to continue. Broken down further, the ‘enemies’ of Syria, the long list, are sending jihadis to fight — and the ‘friends’ of Syria allow the regime to bomb Syrian cities.

Does this makes sense, this fact? And if it makes sense, what to do? The essential impotence of everyone here is exposed. What possible pressure can be brought by Russia and Iran on the regime to cause it to stop bombing its own cities?

Ghufran also says ‘Amen’ to this:

Without an acknowledgment of possible defeat, neither the regime nor the opposition will accept a grand bargain in which compromise is central

To my mind, this kind of assertion just leads off into the dark shadows … what possible ‘grand bargain’ is on the horizon?

What possible ‘compromise’ is Ghufran asking of the Syrian governement?

It’s like the calls from various quarters (notably the NCB) for ‘dialogue.’ What are the parameters of this dialogue? Hosted by whom, the Syrian state?

How does such a compromise or dialogue begin, in your mind, Ghufran? You do clearly enunciate your loathing of all sides who act with force, but what are the steps that the Syrian government itself could take to lead to this compromise?

The Robinson article was interesting, but I think far too glib. It is one thing to end an article with compromise as the goal, but without a sketch or plan, it seems meaningless, able to give hope to no one on any side.

If the regime could not crush the revolution in March, what hope do they have now? Look at the military progress the FSA has made over the last 8 months. While the regime is fighting in Damascus, all of the North and the East will fall to the FSA.

Guerilla wars take a long time. But ALL military trends point to eventual regime defeat. They don’t have the manpower, and their edge in military equipment and air force are slowly being whittled away by FSA victories and MANPADs. The regime cannot replace the helicopters and jets that it loses whereas the FSA can easily replace its men. Within a year, at their current rate of loss, the regime air force will be crippled.

Furthermore, Iran cannot support the regime with money forever. They have their own economy to worry about. When that source of funding is cut off, the regime’s economy collapses.

The FSA doesn’t have to win. All they have to do is to fight the regime to a draw near Damascus and take over other parts of the country, which they’ve mostly accomplished already. If they continue as they have been doing, the regime is guaranteed to collapse within 3 years, if not earlier.

It is great having you here, don’t waste too much of your energy and noble character with the enemies of Syria on this blog, just hit them on the head hard, they can take it, they are paid to take it. They are not Syrians, so they don’t have much feeling on the subject other than pushing the lines, lies and hatred they told to push at the daily HABARIM HASBARA briefing.

Let’s leave Maher story aside because we have no confirmation at all, just here say and innuendos from reliable and inside the belt members. I don’t trust them, because it could be deliberate misinformation stories, yet there maybe some circumstantial truth to them, I don’t want to elaborate any further.

Bashar made many serious errors of judgment, was very arrogant and acted not in the Syrian best National interests. This is a moot point now. What is important right now is this:

1- He can fight bravely and stop the Baathist crap. That is everything is not ok, Syria is in a state of war. Declare it and act accordingly, go clandestinely into full scale war against all culprit states. It maybe way too late, not sure if it will work now, the Qataris (Dictator for life) and Lebanese (Hariri crime&theft for life) may buckle on the first instance of heavy, shock and awe replay from Syria, worth a try before the next option:

2- Pack all the defense and military hardware and software (the gas and germs), as well as factories and hospital and wealth (just as Ukraine did when German came in) and head into the coastal region. Block the entire Syrian coast and protect the inland borders hermetically sealed. Operate for a while under State of War for new Republic of Syria, while the state and its system is drawn up, SNP have many of the details and plans. Assad, must provides a safe zone for minorities and other Syrians to live in peace under and avoid the genocide of the century committed under the watchful eye of the U.N. and a dim witted F****r . Assad must leave a secure space for Syrians to survive and thrive, later will conquer the sub-humans neighbors of the New Republic if cheap slave labor or resources needed.

Man I agree with every single word you said, this woos Bashar was playing “merciful” right at the beginning of this crisis, he did not have the balls to flatten Dar’a or Homs at that time. He understood the seriousness later but after the council has taken control of the whole operation. Many dreamers on this blog try to paint Bashar as an isolated figure from his sect, those should understand that all minorities are behind him and he has no option of failing us.

I’m afraid if we pack our wealth and head to coastal to run the country then those Jihadists might take control of Damascus and we should not allow that. Anyway very soon you’ll see the while powder melting and suffocating those terrorists.

The regime and its foolish supporters think force and violence is the solution to everything.

The poor are protesting? Shoot them.
The rebels have captured a village? Bomb them.
The activists are posting videos? Torture them.
A city is revolting? Raze it.

But every time the regime applied greater force, they have lost. By turning almost the entire world against them, the regime has played into their enemies’ hands. Every escalation is another defeat for the regime.

Can you regime supporters not see what is happening in Syria right now? Are you blind to the trends over the last year? You are fighting a losing war! Almost the entire world has turned against you, and your friends are slowly leaving you. And yet you continue to stick to your old mindset and strategies of violence, the very ones that have brought you to this state!

Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt condemned on Thursday the bombing that targeted the Jaramana suburb of Damascus , Syria on Wednesday, accusing the Syrian regime of president Bashar al Assad of orchestrating it with aim of eliminating the Syrian revolution by stirring sectarian tensions in the country.

“Jaramana yesterday was the scene of a new type of terrorism which is intended to eliminate the Syrian revolution and sustain the state of fear and horror among the Syrian people by pitting regions and communities against each other, a policy long sought and pursued by the Syrian regime and has been actively practiced during the past few months.”

In a statement , Jumblatt urged Syria’s “Druze community to join the Syrian rebels who are shedding their blood in heroic battles against oppression on a daily basis.”

[…]

Jumblatt offered his condolences over the lives that were lost and praised the Druze who refused to get dragged into the “Syrian regime’s trap to create strife.”

More than 50 people were killed in twin car bombings on Wednesday , in Jaramana, a mainly Christian and Druze community.

If the United States can flatten most of Southeast Asia just to keep the arm industry floating, if it can flatten Sunni Moslem countries of Iraq and Afghanistan, shock and awe them to dust, if it can kill 3000 own people blowing Pentagon and Towers in New York for money laundering scam, all that while a corrupt United Nation rubber stamps all its action, then Syrian could, and must, for the sake of national survival and avoidng the genocide of the century against Syria’s minorities do it too.

Druz will not defect, as all minorities are in solid alliance. Only minority Palestinians has defected but it’s alright we understand that the Palestinian leadership never took a wise decision and we do distinguish between leaders and grassroots people.

Great, so now that he is sunni, insect II Maher, the confirmed martyr, can now enjoy 70 virgin flies in the sunni heaven.

A meeting of senior officers, first Alawites, and then the surfs are allowed in after the decisions are made by the sectarian bunch.

This the secularism?…. worst, the brilliant author agrees with the confirmed lunatic of SC making a new union of madness that could be called ( DANDASHALI ).

Mr. Ali reeks sectarianism, loathsome, privileged, and arrogant, murderous, and yet it is obvious that his washing machine can’t keep up with his soiled underwear. I hear the same thing is happening in the laughing-insect’s bunker, the only difference is that laughing insect has been steeling UNICEF diaper aid packages. They say insect-athma refused to wash his cotton diapers.

I think you are playing a joke on this site. Anyone who is not repulsed by Maher Assad’s existence has a sick mind.

He is a junk, a reject by all normal human standards. With waste matter between his ears and definitely nothing between his legs. He is not a real man. Just a vile and ugly inferior protected species who would have failed if he had to compete in the real world.

And if he IS dead now, it’s too late. It’s a tragedy for all Syrians and humanity in general that he was not disposed of at birth.

“The United States is wise to resist direct military involvement in Syria. Likewise, Washington has been smart to resist providing advanced military hardware”

Some people interpret it as a weakness. They say America was used to invading and plundering the world; but now Russia and China have risen and drawn a line in the sand. Now the evil USA is scared to engage in further colonization of the globe.

↑ That is the commie boilerplate, and therefore you are NOT looking “wise” for letting Russia ship more arms to Syria than you.

The only solution is political from day one. al-Assad must negotiate his departure and the transition. This transition should be monitored by the world. The next step is elections and a constitution. But for now: people should focus on the political solution ASAP. The political solution is easy to attain if you find the right willing sponsor.

The clowns running the show now proved so far they are inept. al-Assad can not contain the military strength of the opposition. The opposition so far could not defeat al-Assad so they retaliate by attacking the abundant stock of targets. This cycle is dangerous for Syria, for its population and resources. The faster this bleeding put to an end the better.

The solution is a political uprooting of the regime from its roots. Since the regime has refused and continues to refuse a political solution, then the military one is the only option left for the people.

It is unfortunate but totally predictable as the regime and its supporters as we see on this blog are drunk with the 40 years of power that they got used to exercise.

As was mentioned today, some are fully behind this regime and unfortunately they will share its fate ending up in the dustbin of history.

More than 10 years ago I mentioned on this blog that the current leadership should have done what Juan Carlos of Spain did in ushering in a true civil society but alas the sectarian power hungry zero sum game mentality of the most backward and retarded and criminal regime modern Syria has ever experienced decided otherwise.

Sow the wind and harvest the storm

Justice for Hamza.

Again to ALI

How do you know he is dead?

How do you know they are meeting and to what purpose?

Do you advocate the use of chemical weapons?

Are chemical weapons in the cards?

The Russians told the French Freddo is refusing to leave we cannot do anything, can they stop supporting his regime with fake banknotes and weapons?

Where are you now, if not in Syria then where; regime friendly country or regime opponent country?

Do enjoy having the internet and the freedom where you are and do you think the average Syria is worthy of the same?

Where you are now, do you work or study in a country which favors this or that person based on sect?

When the rebels makes an incursion in an area, the Western media claim it all over as a turning point and a victory.. When the rebels withdraw ‘tactically’ , their failure is hardly reported in the western media. The whole idea is to give the false impression that the rebels are winning…. and many are buying it.

The leader of the Tunisian Islamist party that rose to power after the first Arab Spring uprising last year said that Islamist movements would eventually emerge triumphant throughout the Arab world after a difficult transition period.

Rached Ghannouchi, whose Ennahda party governs with two junior leftist partners, said secular groups should join forces with Islamists to manage the first phase after autocratic rulers were removed. But in the end, Islam will be the “reference point.”

Despite Hillary’s claim that it does not because of the “non lethal” US contribution of telecom equipment, Syria’s stopping Internet and Mobile phones seems effective in hampering the rebel militias. One wonders why it was not done earlier…

Syria’s Internet and phone systems, which blacked out Thursday, remained off line Saturday, three opposition spokesmen said. Fighters are relying on radio communication, which they say is easier for the Syrian government to tap.

The US Embassy in Damascus and expat opposition supporters are urging people to use “Speak to Tweet,” a service which allows users to leave an audio message which is tweeted out as a link for people to click on and play. The phone service outage could make it difficult to use.

As a result of the Internet shutdown, the flood of daily video images of fighting and decimation has dried up. Abu Eyaad accused the government of creating the blackout to hide its mass killings from the outside world.

Is this true? Is there a forced conscription of any Alawi male between the age of 18 -50 that forces them to defend the Assad dynasty?

Are Syria’s rebels about to win?
Syrian rebels have made significant gains in recent weeks as support for Assad shows signs of fraying.

LATTAKIA, Syria — With coffins stacking up at the airport in Syria’s Alawite heartland, and funerals now a daily routine for its mountain villagers, support is fraying among the community on which the Syrian regime depends.

“Day by day the military operations are getting harder and harder,” said Abu Haider, 40, a member of the Syrian security forces, near Qerdaha, the home village of President Bashar al-Assad.

“The Alawites will fight to the end to defend President Bashar but are paying a big price. Most of our men are serving in the army or security forces,” he told GlobalPost.

Ali, a 28-year-old Alawite living in Lattakia, the regional capital, said Alawite villages he recently visited had been nearly emptied of men after the regime enforced conscription for any member of the Alawite sect aged between 18 and 50.

Alawites are the minority off-shoot of Shiite Islam to which the president’s family belongs. The conflict in Syria has increasingly become a sectarian war between the Alawites and the Sunni majority rebels.

[…]

Abu Yasser, 50, a former political detainee and one of the few Alawite figures who dares to oppose the regime, recounted from his farm outside Lattakia the reaction of an Alawite woman who had just received home her dead son, a captain in the army.

“She said, ‘Is this enough for you Assad family? Hafez killed my father in the 1973 war, killed my husband in the 1982 war in Lebanon and today Bashar has killed my son, all to keep power for his family,” Yasser said.

In a village neighboring Madehleh, the birthplace of Assad’s brother-in-law, Assef Shawkat — a long-time security chief assassinated in July — 50-year-old Mohammed said he prefers farming to politics. Representative of the still-large rural underclass of Alawites who saw little benefit from the Assad family’s rise to power, Mohammed questioned why so many of his neighbors’ sons had died.

“All those officers like Assef gave the young the chance to pay a big bribe and join the security forces. And today they are being killed to keep the regime in power,” he said.

“A clear victory for either side would have been a disaster for the region and the world.”

Why the sudden push for a “dialogued” solution when over the past 20 months the dialogue option was never there?

Who pushed the Arab league monitors and their steps of dialogue to the side? Who forgot to implement a single point of the Annan 6 point plan? Now we are supposed to sit and talk it out with the bastards that have been killing us for the past 20 months when the noose is tightening around their necks?

The biggest disaster Mr. Robison will be the survival of the Assad dynasty with all its tyrannical and murdering tendencies.

رجح أعضاء في الائتلاف الوطني لقوى الثورة والمعارضة السورية أن يتم اختيار رئيس الوزراء السوري السابق رياض حجاب رئيسا للحكومة الانتقالية في سوريا
وقال مطلعون في الائتلاف أن من المرجح أن يتم اختيار حجاب الذي يؤيده الأردن ودول الخليج قبل أو أثناء اجتماع لمؤتمر أصدقاء سوريا منتصف كانون الاول.
Internet is back to Damascus and the promise by rebels to take DIA by Saturday did not materialize, instead they detonated a bomb in Ish Al-Warwar ( poor alawite neighborhood near Damascus) that killed a woman and a child. As of now it does not look like the rebels made any gains around Dimashq, I argued for months that any military wins in Syria will be temporary and can not reach the level of a decisive and final victory despite gains made by the rebels since the summer, I indeed expect a large scale attack by regime forces in more than one part of Syria, it is time for both parties to accept the formula of no winner/ no loser and start negotiating an end to the current political and military regime without allowing Islamist thugs to call the shots.

Visitor
I agree, but you read comments saying we must go for dialogue,they have no idea when dialogue is possible.
This regime is very very criminal,read what Ali says, they are crazy,they say things they don’t know the meaning of it.

As for Glen Robinson, I say there will never be compromise with criminals,those criminals must pay for their crimes,no one should kill,or rape or steel and get away with it, justice must prevail, and no compromise with justice.
BTW We must never respect those who insult others,and call them thugs or vampire.

In the short run, yes. It is unlikely the rebels will defeat the regime this year. Possibly not in the next either.

But in the long run, no. The rebels CAN defeat the regime. In 8 months, they’ve already made so much progress. Who knows how much progress they can make in another 8 months?

The regime cannot fight forever. The support from Iran and Russia is limited. Its jets and helicopter are limited. Its manpower is limited. And more importantly, the regime is a pubic relations disaster, which means that for every guerilla the regime kills, two more will take his place.

In the short run, yes. It is unlikely the rebels will defeat the regime this year. Possibly not in the next either.

But in the long run, no. The rebels CAN defeat the regime. In 8 months, they’ve already made so much progress. Who knows how much progress they can make in another 8 months?

The regime cannot fight forever. The support from Iran and Russia is limited. Its jets and helicopter are limited. Its manpower is limited. And more importantly, the regime is a pubic relations disaster, which means that for every guerilla the regime kills, two more will take his place.

*******************************************************
The goal of the rebels as of now is to capture more weapons and cause more desertions. Holding territory is an added bonus, but not important. Once they have enough weapons, then they can begin attack and hold cities.

Zoo is right, somewhat. The attack on Damascus is a Public Relations move designed to distract the regime from other important battles elsewhere in the country. But Zoo and Ghurfan are wrong: this is not pointless destruction by the rebels. It is part of a calculated strategy designed to slowly whittle down the regime.

1. “First we capture a checkpoint.”
2. “Next we use the captured weapons from the first checkpoint to capture a second checkpoint. We continue until we capture many checkpoints.”

3. “Then we use the weapons captured from the many checkpoints to attack a small enemy base.”

4. “Then we use the weapons captured from the small enemy base to attack another enemy base. We continue until we capture many enemy bases.”

5. “Once we have captured many weapons from many enemy bases, we attack big enemy bases. Then finally once we have enough weapons, we begin to attack the cities.”

6. “During the whole process we proclaim the justice of our cause and the vileness of our enemy. We encourage defections. If we can cause 1 defection for every soldier that we lose, we will still win in the end.”

7. “The regime will respond with mindless violence to our actions. This is good for the revolution. The more violent the regime becomes, the more evil the regime will appear in the eyes of the world, and the more people will join our cause. Our numbers will multiply while theirs will shrink.”

8. “Once most of the country is ours, we will make the final push to the regime capitol and win it for once and for all.”

I never said that the attack of Damascus was an intentional PR. It has become a PR because it failed.

We have a Cassandra on the blog who was confident the rebels will reach Bashar Al Assad’ home in Damascus. Just go back a few days on the blog. Damas’s fall is the aim of the rebels and this is their second attempt.
The commanders of the rebels, who ever they are as they keep changing announced it will be a victory.
Now that it failed lamentably, they say it was a PR distraction for ‘more important’ events elsewhere.
Yes, it is for what events? They are taking a beating in many areas that they are loosing. They abandoned the Al Omar Oil field, they are kicked out of Maaret Numan, hunted in Homs and Aleppo, pounded in Edlib province etc…

A distraction it is indeed.. to hide their recurrent failures elsewhere.

A Senate proposal claiming to “protect” Americans’ email privacy from unwarranted secret state intrusions “has been quietly rewritten, giving government agencies more surveillance power than they possess under current law,” CNET revealed.

As provisions of the 1986 Electronic Communications Privacy Act (ECPA) are “updated” to better reflect the insatiable needs of our police state minders, law enforcement groups and corporate lobbyists are clamoring for greater access to our electronic communications.

While doe-eyed “progressives” claim that the reelection of war criminal Barack Obama portends an imminent “2.0 reset” by his administration, actions speak louder than words, particularly as they pertain to Americans’ constitutional rights…

“Speak2Tweet: Google & Twitter Partner Up with US State Dept. to Monopolise Information Flow Out of Syria”
1 December 2012 by Martin Iqbal.

Amid Internet and telephone network outages in Syria, US-trained opposition activists use US-supplied satellite phones to contact Google & Twitter’s ‘Speak2Tweet‘ service. Despite these efforts, the service seems so far to be a resounding failure.

Internet and telecommunications networks have been failing across Syria, leading some including Tony Cartalucci to speculate that NATO may be preparing a psychological warfare operation(1) to bolster the flagging unconventional war against Syria.

Recent developments add weight to this theory. There are now reports(2) that Google and Twitter have re-launched their ‘Speak2Tweet’(3) service to ostensibly aid isolated Syrians affected by the communication network outages.

This is reminiscent of Iran’s CIA-sponsored(4) ‘Green Revolution‘ in 2009 wherein Twitter followed White House instructions(5) to delay its scheduled maintenance, in order to provide continued service to Iran’s Green opposition. If this event hinted at Twitter’s possible status as being a CIA tool in this respect, today’s events should leave little doubt.

‘Speak2Tweet‘ is a communication service which allows the user to dial a conventional telephone number and leave a voice message which is then posted to https://twitter.com/speak2tweet where web users can listen. Speak2Tweet was first launched during Egypt’s January 25th ‘revolution’ back in 2011.

At this important time for Google, Hillary Clinton offered an interesting tidbit yesterday. While giving an especially servile, fawning speech at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy’s Opening Gala Dinner in Washington D.C, she quoted Google’s Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt(6) who recently called Israel, “the most important high tech center in the world, after the United States.” I will leave it to the reader to decide whether this suggests a central Israeli role in Google’s recent ventures.

After interviewing Google’s Christine Chen, Al Arabiya tellingly reported:(3) “Although phone connections are also are suspended, some Syrians were able to call and get through.”

This begs the question: if Internet and telecommunications networks have been failing across Syria, how does the opposition manage to communicate using Speak2Tweet, which requires the user to call an international telephone number (using either a mobile telephone or landline)?

US State Department provided Syrian opposition activists with satellite communications equipment and training
Ever since August 2012 Syrian opposition activists have been travelling to Istanbul, Turkey, to receive satellite communications equipment and training from the U.S. State Department.(7) The UK Telegraph reported in August 2012 that the US State Department’s Office of Syrian Opposition Support (OSOS) was overseeing this scheme, with $25 million reportedly being set aside for the project, and a further $5 million coming from Britain.

According to ForeignPolicy.com(8) the activists are all ‘given a satellite phone and computer‘ at the end of their training, and they are expected to return to Syria.

It is important to note at this point that satellite telephony is not affected by Internet and telecommunications network outages, and indeed satellite telephones allow users to call any conventional telephone number. In fact satellite phones are often used in warzones and in areas affected by natural disasters, as terrestrial cell antennas and networks are often damaged and non-operational in such cases.

In view of this it is highly likely as many have posited, that the country-wide communications outages were engineered by the NATO-GCC axis, with a view to allowing the opposition activists to monopolise the information flow using the satellite equipment and training given to them by the U.S. State Department. It should be noted that Google has been involved in training ‘Arab Spring’ opposition activists(9) through its partnership with the US State Department’s Movement.org.

The voice messages that are posted to the service can be listened to online at: https://twitter.com/speak2tweet. After listening to a sample of the messages, at this point in time the service seems to be a resounding failure insofar as the NATO-GCC axis is concerned. Messages range from merely “Allahu Akbar“, to garbled nonsense, and they do nothing to bolster the ongoing propaganda campaign against the Syrian regime. Furthermore, the Speak2Tweet service has most definitely not ‘made waves’ online, with many web users not even being aware of its existence.

Though many of the Speak2Tweet audio messages seem to be coming from people outside Syria, it is eminently clear that the US State Department intended their activist-proxies whom they had trained and supplied with satellite telephones in Istanbul, to be the only people within Syria able to use the service.

As with all aspects of the now struggling NATO-GCC unconventional war against sovereign Syria, this too seems to have been an embarrassing failure and a waste of time and money.

“The move is seen as a challenge to Iran’s powerful hardliners, who denounce Mashaei as the head of a “deviant current” that they say seeks to undermine the country’s ruling Islamic system.”

Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei,‎ born 16 November 1960 in Ramsar is a top adviser, and close confident of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He is currently Ahmadinejad’s Chief of Staff. …
He has been widely criticized by Iranian conservatives for alleged “deviant” tendencies.

Mashaei has been described as a “Religious-Nationalist” who actively promotes nationalistic themes and ideas, and puts emphasis on Iran’s pre-Islamic past, much to the disdain of the Islamic Republic’s conservative establishment. He has also been called a pragmatic, moderate Conservative with “liberal views on cultural and social issues”.

The possibility that Lakdar Ibrahimi’s proposal for negotiations on a transition government is forced onto the opposition is making it very agitated.
This is why the armed opposition want to be positioned the best possible on the ground, in order to have a strong position in the eventual negotiations.
The political coalition is rushing to create a opposition government in order to also be in a strong position during negotiations.

It seems the Geneva accord, the only one that was approved by Western countries, China and Russia will be exhumed and revamped.
Will it succeed in bringing a halt to the killing?

The video shows white smoke in the sky coming for a plane, hysterical shots and takbeers but NO sound of the crash and no photos of the wreck.
The next shot, taken later, in a total silence, is a sky with computer GRAPHICALLY added black smoke, supposedly “proving” that the plane was downed. Watch it carefully, it’s really badly colored…Pathetic.
Eweyein

“I hope no one use the Airport in Damascus as Assad security ordered their troops to down Civilian plane and acuse the FSA of doing it.”

For God sake why on earth Bashar wants to down a civilian plane?Are you out of mind? If it happens then no airline, even the Persian one, will operate in Syria and that’s exactly what your FSA Jihadists are dreaming of for the last 20 months. Jihadists have anti aircraft and they’re solely responsible for such an attack.

Rumour has it Batta is hiding in Ya3four, which is conveniently located in between Al-Hojairah (4th Brigade Garrison) and Qudssaya (Republican Guard Garrison), not to mention the close proximity of Mazzeh Airport.

LONDON — President Bashar Assad has been quietly forming a military
bastion along the Syrian coast of the Mediterranean Sea.
Opposition sources said the Assad regime has been transferring military
assets along the Mediterranean coast in what appeared to mark preparations
for a separate Alawite-ruled enclave. They said Iran and Russia were helping
with military assets and training forces to defend the coastal region should
the rebels capture Damascus.
“The regime has begun to fortify the Alawite majority coastal regions in
western Syria, establishing trenches and deploying weapons and ammunition, whilst Iranian naval officers are also present,” Maj. Gen. Mohammed Hussein Al Haj Ali, a rebel commander, said.
Ali, commander of the Syrian National Army, said the Iranian Navy has
already taken over control of parts of the long Syrian coastline. He said
Teheran has deployed hundreds of fast attack craft for patrols and to block weapons smuggling to the rebels.
“Iran bought around 2,500 small boats, equipped with engines from
European states, and some — but not all — of them are present along the
Syrian coast,” Ali told the Saudi-owned A-Sharq Al Awsat daily.
The rebel commander said Assad was also transferring weapons to
newly-established Alawite militias in such provinces as Latakia.
“The Syrian regime is in possession of a large stockpile of heavy
weapons and it is relying on its [Alawite] sect to defend it,” Ali said. He
did not elaborate.
The sources said Russia was helping Assad form a military bastion along
the Mediterranean coast. They said the Kremlin was providing weapons,
logistics and training through both military advisers as well as Russian
Navy bases in Latakia and Tartous.

Robinson’s theory of balancing only makes sense if he also means that outside powers should prop up the government side if it starts losing. I doubt if he would ever means that.

As for “solutions,” there simply aren’t any. It’s a big bloody mess for which all the belligerents are responsible. Every fresh deed, no matter the author, merely adds to the confusion and the cost. There is nothing but evil in this civil war.

The best thing is for the fighting to cease, with roundtable negotiations and a general amnesty. The only useful role for the foreigners is to sponsor talks, succour refugees, and host exiles.

Uqab, the little pimp- part 1http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10JiyfJWzxI
The significance of this new discovery should not be underestimated, those who use violence should not complain when violence is used against them.

I’d love to brag and share my information and sources but honestly I can’t at this stage.

Using chemical weapons is very dangerous but could be the last resort to defend the existence of minorities. Assad will only spray the countryside of Damascus with type 3 (which has the lowest impact but most contained effect) if needed.

The possibility of full-scale type 1 chemical attack on the whole Damascus is quite rare. It’ll only happen, God forbid, if we somehow lose Damascus and fallback to the minorities coastal state (which is getting developed as we speak). Tarous’ city council has approved the development work of 6000 units in between Tartous and Lattakia.

I say things are going to an end very soon, as I was assured that we will be spending summer holidays in Syria like old days between Ya’four, Bloudan and Lattakia.

For starters, a good constitution is supposed to be short and vague; the Egyptian draft is neither. Anxious to provide “precise limits” to the executive power, the draft has become the longest constitution in the world. It has 234 articles, some divided into several subsections.

The result is the creation of countless loopholes that Egypt’s rulers, steeped in a culture of despotism, could exploit to their advantage while providing lawyers with a permanent feast of suits and counter-suits.
…
Compared to the constitution in force in the Mubarak era, the draft is a step backward. True, Mubarak and the despots before him cared little about what any constitution said — but that doesn’t justify an attempt at imposing a constitution that, legally speaking, could put Egypt back to medieval times.
…
Next, the democrats tried to fight Morsi in the streets rather than through institutions, or whichever part of them was still functioning. Last week, they announced a new boycott, this time of the process of writing a constitution.

If they continue sulking and boycotting, the draft will be put to referendum without them and approved by a massive majority in a low-turnout vote.

Rather than sulking and walking away, Egyptian democrats should come back and fight.

WASHINGTON — The American effort to stem the flow of Iranian arms to Syria has faltered because of Iraq’s reluctance to inspect aircraft carrying the weapons through its airspace, American officials say.

The shipments have persisted at a critical time for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, who has come under increasing military pressure from rebel fighters. The air corridor over Iraq has emerged as a main supply route for weapons, including rockets, antitank missiles, rocket-propelled grenade and mortars.

Iran has an enormous stake in Syria, which is its staunchest Arab ally and has also provided a channel for Iran’s support to the Lebanese Islamist movement Hezbollah.

To the disappointment of the Obama administration, American efforts to persuade the Iraqis to randomly inspect the flights have been largely unsuccessful.

A quiet tension prevailed downtown, but security checkpoints were proliferating and there were reports that President Bashar al-Assad was preparing loyal divisions to defend the city, the capital and heart of his power.

Military analysts warned that it was impossible to know whether a decisive battle for Damascus was beginning, especially as Syrians lost access to the Internet for 53 hours, limiting the flow of information, before it was restored Saturday. But they said that a government fight to defend its core could be the fiercest and most destructive phase yet of the 20-month conflict.

“We’re waiting for the big battle to begin,” said Emile Hokayem, an analyst based in Bahrain for the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

For decades, the Assad family has settled loyal military families, many from its minority Alawite sect, in the western outskirts of Damascus, where the presidential palace sits on a plateau overlooking the city. The current fighting suggested that the government was trying to insulate those areas, along with the city center and airport, from the semicircle of urban sprawl curving from northeast to southwest, where rebels have strengthened their position in recent days, overrunning a string of small bases.

Analysts say that Mr. Assad, knowing that losing Damascus could be a decisive blow, has been conserving his best and most loyal troops and much of his artillery for a battle there.

“We’re not yet at a point where the regime is in total panic mode and can no longer make rational — however nasty — decisions about military strategy,” Mr. Hokayem said. “He has to decide which cities around Damascus to destroy and which cities to keep in hand.”
…
Rebel success is counted not just in territory, Mr. Hokayem said, but also in the cost to civilians and whether rebels can provide security and services without provoking heavy attacks.

Mr. Hokayem said rebels around Damascus might avoid the mistakes of Aleppo, where the fighters were mainly civilians from the nearby countryside, who lacked a coordinated military and political strategy.

Better-organized units of army defectors in southern Syria and Jordan have been training to attack Damascus, he said.

“Damascus is an opportunity for the rebels to show that they can get their act together better,” he said. “I’m not saying they might not mess it up.”

There is no step 9. After ste p 8, the guerillas win. The regime is gone. You don’t agree? That’s ok. We’ll see who is right in the end.

@Zoo

I thought the siege of Damascus was supposed to start next year. Compared to the future, this is just a probing attack. Once the FSA can attack Damascus from the north as well, that’s when the real battle of Damascus will begin.

@Ali

Are you seriously advocating the use of chemical weapons? Are you suicidal?

An interesting point is that Robinson takes the view that the civil really started in 1976. Most observers haven’t really referred to the period from 1976-82 as a civil war, or as a first phase in an ongoing one, but in the bigger historical view, it may be correct.

If it is, the intervention in Lebanon was a huge strategic mistake for Asad the father and still has repercussions for Syria today. In 1973-74 (because of the October War) he was considered by many as a hero, in 1976, as a traitor. Why did he intervene?

The argument I most heard was that he did so to keep the Israelis from having an excuse to do so. But the fact is, they did anyway in 1978, and again on a bigger scale in 1982 and hit Syrian forces in the process. What was the tacit deal with Asad’s Syria and the US (which approved the intervention) and the Israelis in 1976?

Some kind of deal was made, and a historian who found out what it was with documentation would do a great service to history to reveal it. It seems that the intervention later affected US/Western indifference when Hafiz crushed the rebellion in Hamah.

It’s significant today because we don’t know what the outside actors are really doing behind the scenes. But we do know is that they are doing something. Deception is the name of the game, and public postures screen real policies.

What seems clear is that the US and by extension Western policy establishment doesn’t want an outright opposition victory. If it did they would support it more forcefully with indirect military support. The direct kind could serve to delegitimize the opposition; that’s how bad the reputation of the US is thanks to its total support of highly unjust Israeli policies (something Robinson might believe but may not want to mention out of his own interest).

In fact I would take it further back, and I have to point out that the article contains at least one factual error: the first Alawi president was NOT in 1966 but in 1971 after the Hafiz’s coup in 1970 and it was Hafiz himself. The one who lost all power was Salah Jadid, considered more radical than Hafiz and less pragmatic. There is the further story of the virtual gift of the Jolan (I spell purposely with a J) to the Israelis in 1967

But is it possible that Hafiz ascended precisely because of his cooperation with the West? For example, his failure to give air support to the Syrian military which was challenging Jordan after Black September in 1970?

So, it’s a lot more complicated that one might think. I mention all those past events to point to what may be happening now. The regional and international actors are all there, once again. All are playing their strategic games, once again, this time with unprecedented suffering in Syria (in 1982 it was mostly Hamah: now it’s the whole country).

Syria (historical Syria, which includes Palestine) has the misfortune of being one of the most strategic countries in the world…it always has been. The sooner Syrians realize that they have to compensate for that strategic value by uniting the themselves, the better. It is a daunting task, but Syria’s survival (in its current smaller form or otherwise) may hang in the balance.

But it must. The scars will only deepen if Syria becomes a bunch of disjointed small states (or non-states) all answering to foreign powers. In this case, idealism is the only practical policy (ironically, in a way).

The Egyptian fiasco is a useful warning for Syrians how inept, destructive and useless the MB are when they get near power.

And listen, Syrians, to loud warning bells about how the MB go about brazenly STEALING power from those who fought hardest for change.

Morsi’s government in Egypt is NOT a revolutionary government. In fact, it has been against the goals of the revolution from day one. And its record shows it collaborating with the old regime and protecting it from revolutionary justice.

The MB are parasites who cheat their way into power, clambering over the backs of others after dodging any heavy lifting in the revolution.

And are busy trying to do EXACTLY that today in the Syrian Coalition, although they have very small representation inside Syria.

Read this Egyptian human rights activist powerfully laying out the facts about the MB:

You pointed to several issues,but the end is what I want to discuss.
Uniting Syria: With diverse ethnic composition of Syria,unity will be favoring the majority,The Alawis in a united Syria must relinquish power, in Divided Syria,it will be a temporary situation,where Syria without the coast will not survive,so they either has to fight the Alawi state, or to unite with another state , if they fight the Alawi state it will be uneven fight,where this state will be without oil gas electricity generators,but with backward roads,and will truly will be an isolated state they can not depend on Iran because Turkey may interfere,the geography will make defending such a state will be impossible,.
the point I am saying that Syria can not survive but united.

The MB mischief against Syria is taking place in expat circles OUTSIDE Syria this very moment, with the MB persisting with stupid, selfish grabbing and shoving within the Coalition.

So Syrians outside Syria need to stop sleeping through this emerging disaster and urgently do what they can to prevent it. This MB issue is a threat to Syria’s future NOW. Don’t face cleaning up the mess later instead of rebuilding Syria.

In Egypt there is rivalry between an elected president,who gained legitimacy,and a constitutional court whose members were appointed,by the overthrown president and not elected members, (elected by the people), Mursi must argue against the legitimacy of such constitutional court.

Please don’t forget what MB did in 1980s, they destroyed the country and killed thousands on innocent civilians till the late president Hafiz decided to take the hard option and responded to the mayday call from people of Hama to cleanse the gang of MB.

I agree these are stupid songs but I must remind everybody of that era when Syria was put on the map as a big player by a big man.

“The battle of Damascus will be a peaceful battle, just lay SEIGE arround Damascus,he can not survive for longer than three month”

Totally disagree, keep in mind if these Jihadists keep poking the Arab Syrian Army then they will get what they’re asking for, they’ll die with the first breath.

In order to avoid any unnecessarily causalities, I support deploying international peace troops to keep the capital marginalized so people can get on with their lives. but it should be with the following conditions:

1. Syria selects the nationalities of participate with soldiers.
2. To be only deployed around Damascus
3. The troops will be responsible that no unofficial militant presence is allowed in Damascus and around it.

“Some kind of deal was made, and a historian who found out what it was with documentation would do a great service to history to reveal it. It seems that the intervention later affected US/Western indifference when Hafiz crushed the rebellion in Hamah.”

“everyone else is sound asleep and suddenly..,bursting out with a loud Mnhebak song”

Almost got it right, I keep the speakers on pretty much most of the times to remind our Syrian neighbors (two Sunni families) of our country. They hate talking politics with us but thanks God they did not show any symptoms of being anti regime. Such people are authentic Syrians.

“The mnhebak thing is a pathetically funny phenomena”

Yeah true 🙂 we used to love these songs in Syria especially when driving in a tinted car with high volume in Lattakia during the the love and peace festival at the blue beach. People from all around Syria used to come to that festival and always cheered and sang these songs.

No, Assad massacred 20000 people and set up the seeds for a greater and more destructive war.

If international peacekeepers are deployed, they must be deployed everywhere. What you’re suggesting is for international peacekeepers to protect only you and your regime. An understandable, but selfish and completely unreasonable request.

And Ali, about your most recent comment, only the rich and the well-off did that. For the poor it was a dreary grind with no hope for the future.

If a country cares only for its wealthy, the country will head to disaster.

“No, Assad massacred 20000 people and set up the seeds for a greater and more destructive war. ”

There’s no single documented evidence of this claim, I could claim the same and it’s my word against your word. All these imaginary stories don’t belong to reality most of these narrators are MB memebrs so I can’t see them as a credible source.

“If a country cares only for its wealthy, the country will head to disaster.”

Well said, I could not agree more.
Unfortunately, the Syrian regime didn’t care about countryside and rural areas even for his own people. Please take a ride through the Alawi mountains and see how back-warded are these towns(deya3). This is a stark evidence that Alawis didn’t suck the resources of the countries to their own benefits.

PS: If you really want to take the drive across these towns, I’d recommend to get a local tour guide or at least put many posters of Hafiz and a long antenna on top of your car, otherwise Shebiha of elkalb (the dog) Hilal Assad would confiscate your car and maybe hurt you.

Don’t worry about lack of detailed public information on what happened at Hama in 1982.

It will all come out. Once the Assad spell of fear is broken army people of the time will start to talk, mass graves will be forensically excavated, records released and so on. Some believe chemical weapons were involved.

I’m hoping it all happens in time for Rifaat Assad be forced to cash in his Mayfair mansion and other treasures to pay millions in legal fees to battle war crimes tribunals and extradition orders. And then finish his days in the worst cell in Tadmor.

Any theories why the now seemingly fake revolutionary leadership of Egypt and Tunisia are not acknowledging the Syrian Coalition?

The contstitutional arguments in Egypt are circular. The point is that the MB seem to be stupidly tipping Egypt into prolonged chaos and a backward slide.

It’s a competence and worthiness issue. They have spent decades sunk in machinations and tactics and playing games, but they now have to DELIVER for real. They will destroy all hopes and dreams for the Egyptian people if they dont ditch the amateur act and start working rationally and fairly with the country’s best and brightest human resources.

The lessons for Syria are massive, even before any post-Assad system is born.

First, unlike their brothers in Egypt the MB in Syria have never had any significant support base, and 30+ years of exile means it’s now even fainter. Yet they are elbowing their way to far more seats at the Coalition table than other more recent, relevant and representative groups.

And second, the MB’s manipulations behind the scenes to get a free ride on the back of Syrians who are doing the main work of the revolution is sinister, dishonest and dangerous to Syria.

As said by ALTAIR the criminal president of Syria Mr. Bashar Al Qaeda could have been a part of the Great Mafia Ruling The World, but he has been exposed by his mistakes and now nobody in the West can defend him in public. Although I also believe there are many who still prefer Assad to any other sollution (US and Israel mainly).

The fact that Assad acted so confident, that his wife was promoted to be the ugly sister of Rania, and many other clues could only be explained by two reasons:

A very informative article, but author’s conclusion is absolute rubbish. What author doesn’t seem to realize that opposition might not win but it simply can’t lose. Sunnis (and I am speaking broadly here) are not and will not under any circumstances will continue to accept Alawite dominance. However, many fighters regime will kill there are many many more that will replace them. What we are seeing is a a spigot that that has been turned all the way. Sunni world will continue supplying men for as long as it takes. Unlike chechnya which saw some influx of sunni fighters from outside, Syria could be awash in them anytime. There are no good outcomes in this situation, however you look at it, West and Western values will be losers.