Monday, March 3, 2014

Ukraine: Geopolitical Chess

First published in DelawareLiberal on 3/3/2014 by ProgressivePopulist
Some sentimentalists have been characterizing the Ukraine crisis as a
popular revNot so fast. This situation requires some careful
analysis, not platitudes. Hear that CNN and mainstream media?
Probably not.
I'm reading as much non-mainstream press as I can to
wrap my head around this very complex situation and to try to
understand our role therein. I'm sharing some of the thinking of two
journalists: Pepe Escobar of Asian Times and Brendon O'neill of Spiked.
I
think through them I'm better understanding what is really going on
here. Escobar explains that some of the chess game going on here is the
contract Russia has with Crimea, a semi-autonomous, self governing
region tied to Ukraine. That contract allows the Russian Black Sea
fleet port services until 2042. Guess where one of the destinations of
that port is? Syria.
NATO would love to get the Russian fleet
outta there for Syria reasons as well as the balance of naval and supply
power vis a vis Russia. Escobar thinks the Obama administration has
adopted the neo-con strategy regarding Ukraine, fearing their alliance
drift toward Russia and away from Germany, France and the EU.
Escobar
points out that the Budapest Agreement requires that
U.S./Russia/Ukraine and Britain meet to resolve any issues troubling
their relationship. See any of that happening yet? I don't think so.He
points out Ukraine has had a major financial crisis developing; for
example, its currency has devalued by 20% in 2014. Any signs of an EU
bailout? Nope. EU is pretty broke with their own money problems.
Ukraine needs $30 billion to get it through 2014, according to Escobar;
Russia has so far pledged half that, $15 billion. But, now, with the
regime change, who knows if that will come through. The U.S.? 1
billion. EU, nothing so far.
Then there's pipeline politics
again. Russia supplies a huge part of Europe. Guess where major
pipeline routes to Europe are? Yup. Ukraine. And to make things
even more complicated, Ukraine's industry depends heavily on Russian
markets.
O'Neill observes that what has happened in recent weeks
is regime change, not revolution. He equates the impotence of the
protest movement there to our Occupy movement, hardly a game changer.
Old parties have formed an interim government through Parliament after
Yanukovich's ouster. Not new, revolutionary entities.
He also
points out the pesky fact that Yanukovich was democratically elected in
2010 and as recently as 2012 his party received a major victory again
with the Parliamentary elections. He has evolved into an
anti-democratic tyrant, no doubt. But the regime change too is
anti-democratic but vocally supported by the Obama and Merkel
administrations. In fact, both for months have verbally supported the
opposition movement, comprised of a complex set of alliances which
include groups Russia characterizes as Fascists and anti-semites. Yes,
and a healthy dose of radical Muslim groups as well. Our diplomats
visited the protestors, but apparently not Yanukovich to try to moderate
him. And our media, especially Fox and CNN pretty much in unison.
Complicated, isn't it?
In these recent events, we have rightly
accused Putin of meddling. But how would you characterize our
comportment in trying to move Ukraine toward the EU? And our right
wing's call to renew the cold war?
Solutions? Obama is rightly
using the bully pulpit to try to back Putin down. There are sanction
options being explored, such as targeting Russian Kleptocrats who are
directly fueling the Ukraine conflict to hit them in their wallets. The
G8 cancellation was a very good move along with cancellation of other
trade meetings. But direct talks, via the Budapest agreement are
vitally needed. Where is Kerry Going this week? Kiev, not Moscow.
The
worst idea proposed by the crazies on the right? Acceleration and
renewal of missile defense sites, including with Poland? That kind of
confrontation is absurd. We have many other both defense and offense
options without that program. We don't need McCain and his little buddy
from S. Carolina out in the media confusing the issue and undermining
President Obama's diplomacy work to deescalate this tinder box.

About Me

Moved to Wilmington, Delaware in mid-2013. Resided in Houston, Texas for 45 years. A widower, married Julie Jackson in 2007. Retired as a hospital marketing consultant in 2001.Have been a Democratic Party political activist for most of my adult life, organizing and mobilizing for the Party and its candidates. Consider myself a progressive populist. Early career included running communications for 35 campaigns. Have formed and led committees dealing with voter mobilization and precinct organizing, counter voter suppression and strategy.Co-founded the Progressive Populist Caucus of the Texas Democratic Party. Have served on the Texas Democratic Party Platform Committee numerous times. Also an active organizer for the anti-war movement since Vietnam and was active in the civil rights movement.