There have been many Nomad generations in the past. Earlier ones at least had a kinda happy ending, spending their old age in a High. (Unless they were so unlucky to witness the new "Awakening", where the idiocy and hypocrisy started which wrecked their childhood once. Like that one Lost scholar who studied cycles mentioned.)

But the Xers are the first Nomad generation who have the knowledge (or could have, at least) about the cycles of history. If they hadn't, their further course would be similar: Doing dirty but necessary work during the Crisis (without thanks, rewards or respect, even if they expect it), sacrificing even more later, hoping that further generations would do better.

But instead, we know how grateless other generations are, and how the whole cycle will begin again. And even if we were content with that: Because of the Silents still being powerful (see my other thread), Xers aren't even allowed to do the necessary work of simplifying and moving away Silent garbage.

(02-06-2019, 11:14 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: There have been many Nomad generations in the past. Earlier ones at least had a kinda happy ending, spending their old age in a High. (Unless they were so unlucky to witness the new "Awakening", where the idiocy and hypocrisy started which wrecked their childhood once. Like that one Lost scholar who studied cycles mentioned.)

I knew one of the Lost who witnessed the "Awakening" and she was not happy about it at all. It is ironic that she knew it was going to turn out band ended up seeing more of it than she wanted to. She had about a dozen great-grandchildren and watched all but one of them become adults because that last one was a Millie. You are right about those who died earlier but it wasn't a picnic for those who lived.

The only good thing from my point of view is that she was able to tell me the truth about things the Boomers were lying about. You have no idea how much trouble she saved me.

In case you are wondering, this is who I am talking about:

Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. -- H.L. Mencken

If one rejects laissez faire on account of man's fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action. -- Ludwig von Mises

(02-06-2019, 11:14 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: So - what should Yers do with their knowledge?

I assume you mean millennials.

If the millennial elite treats S-H theory seriously, they could do something to suppress the Awakening. Perhaps they will raise their kids in the 2030s the way they were reared in the 1990s and 2000s. Perhaps they will use advanced techniques of propaganda to discourage a "romantic rebel" attitude when the time for Awakening comes.

Such a scenario has interesting consequences. If the Awakening is suppressed the new cycle will be a shorter one. New Crisis and new Civic generation will arrive in the 2060s, when some millennials will still be active. There could be a strong bond between the millennials and neo-millennials, together they could see the triumph of a civic order they couldn't achieve in the 2010s.

No, the cycle is not out of rhythm, if you repair the anomaly of the civil war saeculum, and restore the 1850s to 4T status. Then, in perfect timing, our early 4T has been just like the 1850s--- compromise fails, polarization rises, government and incompetent presidents fail to act, leading to a civil war.

How warlike the civil war will be in the 2020s remains to be seen. But if the timing continues on target, then circa 2025 should see some sort of break-out, and 2027 some kind of crisis climax. The saeculum will have been 83 years long if the 4T ends in 2028-29, as expected now by Mr. Howe. Since the current saeculum is like the civil war one, there is talk of another anomaly, but there really isn't one.

(02-06-2019, 11:14 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: So - what should Yers do with their knowledge?

I assume you mean millennials.

If the millennial elite treats S-H theory seriously, they could do something to suppress the Awakening. Perhaps they will raise their kids in the 2030s the way they were reared in the 1990s and 2000s. Perhaps they will use advanced techniques of propaganda to discourage a "romantic rebel" attitude when the time for Awakening comes.

Such a scenario has interesting consequences. If the Awakening is suppressed the new cycle will be a shorter one. New Crisis and new Civic generation will arrive in the 2060s, when some millennials will still be active. There could be a strong bond between the millennials and neo-millennials, together they could see the triumph of a civic order they couldn't achieve in the 2010s.

No-one should have expected the millennials to achieve a new civic order in the 2010s. A civic generation in early youth does not achieve a civic order; they probably don't even go to war yet. Whatever civic order achieved by ALL the generations alive in our 4T, will be achieved in the 2020s. The 2010s are 1850s redux: failed attempts at compromise, increasing polarization, lack of leadership, racial/identity clashes, a bad supreme court, etc. We are at best only up to about 1854.

By far, not enough millennials today have any idea about generations and turnings cycle. It is a cult following that exists mostly on a few forums like this. Such a meager awareness will not be able to shift or eliminate any turnings, even assuming they could all agree to change their parenting style from what would seem natural to them, given their own overly-helicoptered upbringing.

(02-07-2019, 01:31 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: No, the cycle is not out of rhythm, if you repair the anomaly of the civil war saeculum, and restore the 1850s to 4T status. Then, in perfect timing, our early 4T has been just like the 1850s--- compromise fails, polarization rises, government and incompetent presidents fail to act, leading to a civil war.

How warlike the civil war will be in the 2020s remains to be seen. But if the timing continues on target, then circa 2025 should see some sort of break-out, and 2027 some kind of crisis climax. The saeculum will have been 83 years long if the 4T ends in 2028-29, as expected now by Mr. Howe. Since the current saeculum is like the civil war one, there is talk of another anomaly, but there really isn't one.

I agree, with the added caveat that the rate of societal change is now so high that revolutionary breaks with the past are almost immediately mundane or overcome by yet another change in society. Most of the societal change is powered by out of control technology, with little reason to believe tech will be restrained any time soon. Now, add AGW to the mix, and good luck to all you younger folk.

Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.

(02-07-2019, 01:31 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: No, the cycle is not out of rhythm, if you repair the anomaly of the civil war saeculum, and restore the 1850s to 4T status. Then, in perfect timing, our early 4T has been just like the 1850s--- compromise fails, polarization rises, government and incompetent presidents fail to act, leading to a civil war.

How warlike the civil war will be in the 2020s remains to be seen. But if the timing continues on target, then circa 2025 should see some sort of break-out, and 2027 some kind of crisis climax. The saeculum will have been 83 years long if the 4T ends in 2028-29, as expected now by Mr. Howe. Since the current saeculum is like the civil war one, there is talk of another anomaly, but there really isn't one.

I agree, with the added caveat that the rate of societal change is now so high that revolutionary breaks with the past are almost immediately mundane or overcome by yet another change in society. Most of the societal change is powered by out of control technology, with little reason to believe tech will be restrained any time soon. Now, add AGW to the mix, and good luck to all you younger folk.

There is a lot of tech change, with positive and negative effects hard to calculate, and not well controlled if at all. But tech leaves a lot out as far as social change is concerned, and we have seen very little change over the last 40 years in our politics and economic relationships or our care for the environment, unless it has been to regress backward. What we have largely seen is stagnation, and this was similar to the early to mid-19th century in many ways, in the USA and in Europe too; also even in spite of increasing industrialism. But something will break through soon. A rev up of society is around the corner in the next decade.

(02-07-2019, 01:31 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: No, the cycle is not out of rhythm, if you repair the anomaly of the civil war saeculum, and restore the 1850s to 4T status. Then, in perfect timing, our early 4T has been just like the 1850s--- compromise fails, polarization rises, government and incompetent presidents fail to act, leading to a civil war.

How warlike the civil war will be in the 2020s remains to be seen. But if the timing continues on target, then circa 2025 should see some sort of break-out, and 2027 some kind of crisis climax. The saeculum will have been 83 years long if the 4T ends in 2028-29, as expected now by Mr. Howe. Since the current saeculum is like the civil war one, there is talk of another anomaly, but there really isn't one.

I agree, with the added caveat that the rate of societal change is now so high that revolutionary breaks with the past are almost immediately mundane or overcome by yet another change in society. Most of the societal change is powered by out of control technology, with little reason to believe tech will be restrained any time soon. Now, add AGW to the mix, and good luck to all you younger folk.

Despite all the talk about superfast rate of change, I wouldn't call the 2010s a revolutionary decade. The main cultural changes are acceptance of homosexuality and marijuana, things that were happening since the 1960s. Technology means mostly proliferation of computers (everybody has a PC, but this has been the case since the 1990s) and social media (this happened in 2006-9). Space flight and energy sources are stuck in the 1960s.

The oldest Millennials are >35 already. Soon, they'll be too old to be a footsoldier in any war, period. No, I stand by my opinion that rich old people (*cough* Silents *cough*) use their influence to do lobbyism, and that's why we don't have a proper Crisis. Trump would love to lead like FDR - but they don't let him. They know well enough how much they'd lose if a government took action, so they preserve the status quo, no matter if it suffocates the country and the people.

I don't understand BTW how Strauss & Howe could live in DC and never mention a topic like lobbyism. After all, the puppetmasters are more important than the puppets.

(02-07-2019, 01:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: By far, not enough millennials today have any idea about generations and turnings cycle. It is a cult following that exists mostly on a few forums like this. Such a meager awareness will not be able to shift or eliminate any turnings, even assuming they could all agree to change their parenting style from what would seem natural to them, given their own overly-helicoptered upbringing.

It's enough for the ELITE to know about the cycle to change the trends in child rearing. Because of social media the elites are able to shape millennials' attitudes to the extent that was impossible in previous cycles. But they are too myopic to worry about something that is supposed to happen in 30 years. Still, millennials have a strong sense of 90s nostalgia, so they may want to give their kids the kind of 90s childhood they miss so much.

(02-08-2019, 08:45 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: The oldest Millennials are >35 already. Soon, they'll be too old to be a footsoldier in any war, period. No, I stand by my opinion that rich old people (*cough* Silents *cough*) use their influence to do lobbyism, and that's why we don't have a proper Crisis. Trump would love to lead like FDR - but they don't let him. They know well enough how much they'd lose if a government took action, so they preserve the status quo, no matter if it suffocates the country and the people.

I don't understand BTW how Strauss & Howe could live in DC and never mention a topic like lobbyism. After all, the puppetmasters are more important than the puppets.

That's a good point. I imagine the youngest millennials, by S&H dating and not Pew demographic dating, will be in their early 20s when the war comes, if it comes, so they can be footsoldiers like the youngest GIs and even Silent/GI cuspers were in world war two. But the Silents like the Koch Brothers and others are still pulling the lobby and money strings and keeping congress and presidents shackled. Not that I have any faith in Trump, but the forces of obstruction do pull on him.

This may not be anything new for a 4T; the Compromise Generation, at least as S&H defined it (extending through 1780s cohorts, maybe too far), were at the helm in the 1850s, which was actually the early 4T like our times, restraining any real move to restrict or eliminate slavery and keeping southern planters' interests uppermost with the Fugitive Slave Act and the Dred Scott Decision. Only in the later 4T (the 1860s) was this Adaptive Generation rule broken, at the cost of civil war that time.

In the 2020s, the dam will break again, though not without conflict and resistance of some kind. One more election and the dam could get real shaky, and the elections of 2022 and 2024 will break it down. The right-wing will still have the supreme court and possibly the senate, however (which over-represents rural red states), which may keep much resistance in place. The progressive and reform/revolution tides will be very strong though.

(02-07-2019, 01:31 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: No, the cycle is not out of rhythm, if you repair the anomaly of the civil war saeculum, and restore the 1850s to 4T status. Then, in perfect timing, our early 4T has been just like the 1850s--- compromise fails, polarization rises, government and incompetent presidents fail to act, leading to a civil war.

How warlike the civil war will be in the 2020s remains to be seen. But if the timing continues on target, then circa 2025 should see some sort of break-out, and 2027 some kind of crisis climax. The saeculum will have been 83 years long if the 4T ends in 2028-29, as expected now by Mr. Howe. Since the current saeculum is like the civil war one, there is talk of another anomaly, but there really isn't one.

I agree, with the added caveat that the rate of societal change is now so high that revolutionary breaks with the past are almost immediately mundane or overcome by yet another change in society. Most of the societal change is powered by out of control technology, with little reason to believe tech will be restrained any time soon. Now, add AGW to the mix, and good luck to all you younger folk.

Despite all the talk about superfast rate of change, I wouldn't call the 2010s a revolutionary decade. The main cultural changes are acceptance of homosexuality and marijuana, things that were happening since the 1960s. Technology means mostly proliferation of computers (everybody has a PC, but this has been the case since the 1990s) and social media (this happened in 2006-9). Space flight and energy sources are stuck in the 1960s.

That's not where I see the change occurring, frankly. I see change at the foundational level, where baseline assumptions are changing without leaving much of a trace. A lot of what is now hyper-PC would have been laughable just 20 years ago, yet it's now driving the discussions we have about values. Let's take the mess in my state of Virginia. Initially, it was blackface that was the unforgivable sin, and still may be in the end. Never mind that sexual assault is a class 1 felony, and should have been the more important of the two issues. It was only the emergence of a second accuser that the roles reversed. Now, add in the presumption of innocence, and the discussion goes right off the tracks.

Prior to the Clintons, these issues would have been page 4 below the fold (maybe not the rape accusation, but blackface certainly). The resolutions would have been negotiated behind the scenes, and some general kumbaya statement issued by <insert the moral authority of your choice>. I'm not arguing that this is either better or worse, just the reality of today versus a short 2 or 3 decades ago.

Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.

(02-08-2019, 08:45 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: The oldest Millennials are >35 already. Soon, they'll be too old to be a footsoldier in any war, period. No, I stand by my opinion that rich old people (*cough* Silents *cough*) use their influence to do lobbyism, and that's why we don't have a proper Crisis. Trump would love to lead like FDR - but they don't let him. They know well enough how much they'd lose if a government took action, so they preserve the status quo, no matter if it suffocates the country and the people.

I don't understand BTW how Strauss & Howe could live in DC and never mention a topic like lobbyism. After all, the puppetmasters are more important than the puppets.

That's a good point. I imagine the youngest millennials, by S&H dating and not Pew demographic dating, will be in their early 20s when the war comes, if it comes, so they can be footsoldiers like the youngest GIs and even Silent/GI cuspers were in world war two. But the Silents like the Koch Brothers and others are still pulling the lobby and money strings and keeping congress and presidents shackled. Not that I have any faith in Trump, but the forces of obstruction do pull on him.

This Crisis will decide whether we have government of the People, by the People, and for the People -- or government by lobbyist, a novel form of tyranny that has yet to have a name. The Boomers are now old enough, even the youngest approaching retirement age, that they will be on the sidelines (likely pensioned off, if necessary) after the Crisis is over. If the lobbyists win they will simply reward the ones who did not turn against them with modest retirements to keep them out of the workforce -- especially the intellectual workforce. The new elite might not want older people who know about the old America 'corrupting' the youth with tales of old freedom and responsible government in an order in which the economic elites have rights due from the non-elites who have only responsibilities to those elites. Government by lobbyist (and we have had bitter tastes of it) implies that those who hold the purse-strings (owners and executives) have the real power and that others simply defer, go into exile, or die.

Quote:This may not be anything new for a 4T; the Compromise Generation, at least as S&H defined it (extending through 1780s cohorts, maybe too far), were at the helm in the 1850s, which was actually the early 4T like our times, restraining any real move to restrict or eliminate slavery and keeping southern planters' interests uppermost with the Fugitive Slave Act and the Dred Scott Decision. Only in the later 4T (the 1860s) was this Adaptive Generation rule broken, at the cost of civil war that time.

You mentioned the Koch brothers as examples of the Silent elites maintaining influence -- but one of them, I understand, has terminal cancer. A generation has power until it has no successors in its midst.

Quote:In the 2020s, the dam will break again, though not without conflict and resistance of some kind. One more election and the dam could get real shaky, and the elections of 2022 and 2024 will break it down. The right-wing will still have the supreme court and possibly the senate, however (which over-represents rural red states), which may keep much resistance in place. The progressive and reform/revolution tides will be very strong though.

Note well that Generation X is already beginning to supplant Boomers in elected office. Some of its Senate leaders are even more resolutely and fervently reactionary (Pat Toomey, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Mike Lee in the Senate alone... OK, Scott Walker is probably through) than Silent and Boom right-wingers. Will these be brittle targets for liberals? I certainly hope so!

It's going to take a 2020s equivalent of a New Deal to bring the Mountain and Deep South into political as well as technological modernity. Those now in charge resist such kicking in screaming. (Young-earth creation! "Godly" America! Rah! Rah! Rah!) But will the kids?

The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.

(02-09-2019, 01:49 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: You mentioned the Koch brothers as examples of the Silent elites maintaining influence -- but one of them, I understand, has terminal cancer. A generation has power until it has no successors in its midst.

(02-06-2019, 11:14 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: So - what should Yers do with their knowledge?

I assume you mean millennials.

If the millennial elite treats S-H theory seriously, they could do something to suppress the Awakening. Perhaps they will raise their kids in the 2030s the way they were reared in the 1990s and 2000s. Perhaps they will use advanced techniques of propaganda to discourage a "romantic rebel" attitude when the time for Awakening comes.

Such a scenario has interesting consequences. If the Awakening is suppressed the new cycle will be a shorter one. New Crisis and new Civic generation will arrive in the 2060s, when some millennials will still be active. There could be a strong bond between the millennials and neo-millennials, together they could see the triumph of a civic order they couldn't achieve in the 2010s.

No-one should have expected the millennials to achieve a new civic order in the 2010s. A civic generation in early youth does not achieve a civic order; they probably don't even go to war yet. Whatever civic order achieved by ALL the generations alive in our 4T, will be achieved in the 2020s. The 2010s are 1850s redux: failed attempts at compromise, increasing polarization, lack of leadership, racial/identity clashes, a bad supreme court, etc. We are at best only up to about 1854.

By far, not enough millennials today have any idea about generations and turnings cycle. It is a cult following that exists mostly on a few forums like this. Such a meager awareness will not be able to shift or eliminate any turnings, even assuming they could all agree to change their parenting style from what would seem natural to them, given their own overly-helicoptered upbringing.

I wasn't overly helicoptered as a kid and I had a lot of freedom and people to play with but what I wondered was that if the Boomer elites had a conspiracy to form all Millennials into the same borg. I think it's why kids were put on meds so early or why freedom was stomped down. Also why wouldn't the reaction to being helicoptered be wanting more freedom as a rebellion? I think ADHD meds and the psychiatric industry was a conspiracy to make everyone the same as children. Why did Boomers claim to value freedom and individuality but not want this for their kids? My parents fought back against the system and demanded they do things their way. I was never put on meds because of their fighting spirit.

Quote:That's not where I see the change occurring, frankly. I see change at the foundational level, where baseline assumptions are changing without leaving much of a trace. A lot of what is now hyper-PC would have been laughable just 20 years ago, yet it's now driving the discussions we have about values. Let's take the mess in my state of Virginia. Initially, it was blackface that was the unforgivable sin, and still may be in the end. Never mind that sexual assault is a class 1 felony, and should have been the more important of the two issues. It was only the emergence of a second accuser that the roles reversed. Now, add in the presumption of innocence, and the discussion goes right off the tracks.

Prior to the Clintons, these issues would have been page 4 below the fold (maybe not the rape accusation, but blackface certainly). The resolutions would have been negotiated behind the scenes, and some general kumbaya statement issued by <insert the moral authority of your choice>. I'm not arguing that this is either better or worse, just the reality of today versus a short 2 or 3 decades ago.

That's why I'm so frustrated. My speech and freedom are being suppressed. I don't even try to be non offensive because they will react either way with offense. I'm just brash and unapologetic to people who are easily offended. It's the only way to deal with them to show they have no power over you. They respond in shock if you don't go along with what social media tells you to do. It's easier to beg forgiveness than ask permission. Just do whatever you want and push through with willpower because they will always say no when negotiating.

(03-28-2019, 05:33 PM)AspieMillennial Wrote: I wasn't overly helicoptered as a kid and I had a lot of freedom and people to play with but what I wondered was that if the Boomer elites had a conspiracy to form all Millennials into the same borg. I think it's why kids were put on meds so early or why freedom was stomped down. Also why wouldn't the reaction to being helicoptered be wanting more freedom as a rebellion? I think ADHD meds and the psychiatric industry was a conspiracy to make everyone the same as children. Why did Boomers claim to value freedom and individuality but not want this for their kids? My parents fought back against the system and demanded they do things their way. I was never put on meds because of their fighting spirit.

Boomers are yuge hypocrites. That's why they think they should get what others don't - even their kids and parents.

Aspie....What Boomers claim and what they do are often two vastly different things. I don't think it is a conspiracy though, I think stupid people act stupidly in a herd because most humans are instinctual herd animals. Most are sheep, few are wolves. It is much better to be a wolf.

I recommend reading Nietzsche. He is a very enlightening Missionary.

That said the next 2T is unlikely to be like the last due to the double stroke cycle. All the PC nonsense is a boomer attempt to atone or some sin they see in themselves and will not re-emerge until another atonement 2T. The next 2T will be about advancement thankfully, and won't be too crazy or disruptive. I'm hoping to die before then though. One is enough.