Former Edmonton Oilers goaltender Devan Dubnyk gave up five goals, including three in the first 12:05 of the first period, during his first National Hockey League game with the Nashville Predators on Saturday at the Bridgestone Center in Nashville. The Colorado Avalanche won the game 5-4.

EDMONTON - Did the Edmonton Oilers waste their time taking goaltender Devan Dubnyk with the 14th pick in the 2004 draft?

They could have taken centre Travis Zajac, who went 20th overall to the New Jersey Devils. It would have been a safer choice because forwards get to the NHL way faster and often have a longer shelf life.

Since 2000, 25 goalies have gone in Round 1. Other than Marc-Andre Fleury, who the Pittsburgh Penguins selected first overall in 2003, Kari Lehtonen (No. 2 by Atlanta Thrashers in 2002), Carey Price (No. 5 by Montreal Canadiens in 2005), Cam Ward (No. 22 by the Carolina Hurricanes in 2002), Tuukka Rask (No. 21 by the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2005) and Semyon Varlamov (No. 23 by the Washington Capitals in 2006), nobody else is a bonafide starter.

Anybody remember Jason Bacashihua, Adam Munro or Hannu Toivonen? How about Thomas McCollum, Marek Schwartz or Chet Pickard? Pickard (4.42 goals-against average in 120 minutes) is backing up Richard Bachman in Oklahoma City, the Oilers’ American Hockey League farm club, these days so Laurent Brossoit can get his games with the Bakersfield Condors in the ECHL.

Some first-round goalies were done in by injuries, like Rick DiPietro and Dan Blackburn, but teams have as great a chance of finding a starting goalie with the 205th pick (Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers in 2000) or the 258th choice (Pekka Rinne, Nashville Predators in 2004) as taking one in Round 1.

Lehtonen, Rask and Varlamov have all been traded once, too. In two of the cases — Lehtonen (injuries) and Varlamov (inconsistent play) — teams weren’t sure about them. The Maple Leafs simply blew it on Rask, giving him up to the Boston Bruins for another goalie, Andrew Raycroft.

“You have to be a soothsayer to figure how good a goalie is going to be,” said Mike Greenlay, who used to be in the Oilers’ farm system and now works as the Minnesota Wild’s TV colour commentator.

Dubnyk is good, but after 9-1/2 years, the Oilers decided he wasn’t going to be a starter for them. So they are giving Ben Scrivens a chance for the last 30 games to see if they should re-sign him or try to make a deal for Ward, Ottawa’s Craig Anderson, Toronto’s James Reimer or the Anaheim Ducks’ Fredrik Andersen, or try to sign the Ducks’ Jonas Hiller, who is an unrestricted free agent after the season like Scrivens.

“You always have to take a long-term view when you take a goalie … that you are not going to see him on your team for, say, four years from when he’s drafted and that’s first-round, second-round, sixth-round,” said Craig Button, the TSN-NHL Network and former Calgary GM who is a draft guru.

“A first-round forward or defenceman can be on your team immediately or within a year. Goalies? They take longer to get there. I also think it’s a good idea to have a goalie in place on your team before taking another one in the first round.”

Montreal had Jose Theodore when it took Price in 2005. The Bruins took Malcolm Subban in the first round in 2012.

“They’ve got Rask and can bring Subban along slowly in the American League,” said Button. “Montreal took (Canadian world junior goalie) Zach Fucale last year, an early second round pick (36th overall). They have things in order with Price.

“Look at Al Montoya (Winnipeg Jets backup, who was sixth overall to the Rangers in Dubnyk’s 2004 draft class). He played at U of Michigan, where the goalies don’t get a whole lot of shots … kind of like Cornell where Scrivens went. I don’t think it helped Montoya,” said a veteran NHL team executive.

“I’m not so sure it’s not better to go and sign a 26-year-old European goalie if you need one. Let them put all the time and money into developing into that goalie for you.”

Montoya has played 63 NHL games. Fortunately, for the Rangers, Lundqvist turned out to be one of the best goalies in the world.

Whatever round a goalie is selected, scouts have to know one thing.

“Tim Bernhardt, when we worked in Dallas, always said you always draft a goalie to be an NHL starter no matter when you take him. You don’t draft backups. Starters can become backups later,” said Button.

“In Devan’s case, going to Nashville might be really good for him (even if it’s only for a few months because Rinne is the No. 1 when he gets healthy again). Mitch Korn is one of the very best goalie coaches. Devan has proven over time he can be good for short periods, but hadn’t proved he could be a 55-60 game guy, so you move him along.”

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