2015 and PDP’s politics of zoning

President Goodluck Jonathan’s supporters are drumming support for his second term ambition in the North to counter the Northern elders’ push for power shift in 2015. Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the claims and counter-claims of the pro-zoning and anti-power shift crusaders.

Former Vice Chancellor of Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Zaria, Prof. Ango Abdullahi, started the agitation on the platform of the Northern Elders’ Forum (NEF). Since last year, the debate on power shift has polarised the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) into pro-zoning camp and anti-power shift supporters. The zoning controversy has led to a split in the party, with the Baraje faction, which is believed to be rooting for power shift to the North, challenging to a duel President Goodluck Jonathan, who is perceived to be nursing a second term.

The agitators for power shift to the North are leaning on the party’s zoning arrangement. But the President is leaning on the 1999 Constitution, which gives him the right to seek a second term. Besides, his supporters have pointed out that President Jonathan is still in power, based on the “natural zoning” of the slot to the Southsouth, adding that his second term ambition is still within the zoning framework.

This argument has been rejected by Abdullahi. In his view, the next President should come from the North, based on the previous agreement on zoning in the PDP. He said the region had made a sacrifice by conceding the Presidency to the South, following the death of President Umaru Yar’ Adua, a northerner. The PDP chieftain, who served under former President Olusegun Obasanjo, said the country should not entrust Dr. Jonathan with leadership beyond 2015 because he had betrayed the process that brought him into the office.

The former Special Adviser on Food Security explained that the region expected the President to reciprocate the gesture by refraining from blocking its chance. He blamed Obasanjo for upsetting the party’s zoning formula, adding that President Jonathan’s position on zoning is a fallout of the Obasanjo legacy.

“When Obasanjo wanted an extension of tenure for a second term under the zoning arrangement, he to came to an extended caucus of the PDP. I remember how people opposed the idea. The late Abubakar Rimi was one of them and he was supported by three others that Obasanjo should not be given an extension and that the Presidency should come to the North for four years before going back to the South.

“Eventually, about 37 people out of the about 41 present, voted for the extension for Obasanjo to have a second term. Now coming to why we should not trust people who renege on promises. Obasanjo was the first to deny that there was a zoning that brought him to power. He did that and kept doing it and it is most likely it was from him that they learnt what they are doing because he was instrumental to Jonathan becoming the Vice President,” he stressed.

Niger State Governor Babangida Aliyu’s disclosure has also fueled the zoning crisis. He alleged that the President had sealed a pact with some Northern leaders to have one term in office. But he refused to shed light on the details, the signatories to the pact and witnesses. Although he promised that he would let the cat out of the bag, he has not lived up to the threat.

The zoning argument has not only polarised the PDP, it has also divided the North. Former Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, Alhaji Mohammed Abba-Gana, faulted the Northern Elders’ Forum’s claim. He said many Northerners are rooting for the President’s second term, adding that Abdullahi’s views were personal.

The Bornu State politician described the NEF as an interest group that has limitations. He said other groups in the region have not endorsed its agitation. In fact, the former minister said that NEF was arrogating to itself the powers of a political party. “I doubt, if Prof. Abdullahi speaks for the North because the political parties are the only recognised institutions through which one can present oneself for an election and not through non-governmental organisations like NEF or the NGF”, he explained. He said the group can pass its suggestion to the PDP or any other party for consideration.

Abba-Gana, an engineer, said that fairness demanded that Jonathan, who is from a minority ethnic group from the Southsouth, should complete his constitutional two terms. He pointed out that the North had produced more Heads of State and Governments than the South. “Allowing Jonathan another four years will not take anything away from the North. The region has produced about eight or nine former Heads of State and it did not take away poverty from the North. We should not be talking as if the North has never had any President. We have had about eight or nine Presidents, yet poverty, illiteracy and crises are in the North. So, if the previous eight or nine leaders, who are Northerners, did not make any difference, is it the remaining years of Jonathan that will kill the North?, he queried.

In Abba-Gana’s reckoning, it is dangerous for the PDP to deny an incumbent President, who is interested in a second term, the ticket, especially when his aspiration has not violated the constitution. He said the party will enjoy the power of incumbency, if the President is allowed to run. “If the President says he will seek another term, most of us will support him, because it would be very unwise even for the PDP to bring out another person while Jonathan is still sitting in the Aso Villa. How will you force him to support the new candidate?”, he asked.

The former minister urged the Northern elders to listen to Gen Theophilus Danjuma’s admonition that the Northern elite should not chase shadows. “Our highly respected statesman has told our Northern elite that the North needs to plan very well, work very hard, relate better and talk less. If you ask me, the North needs another four years to plan, to relate better, to work hard and create a programme, so that this Boko Haram crisis, Jos crisis and so on will be settled. And we should search for and groom a leader from the North, who will unite the region and at the same time give Nigeria a very good leadership. But you can’t do this in a crash programme”, he added

Former Senate President Ahmed Ebute aligned with Abba-Gana, saying that “God has zoned the Presidency to the Southsouth”, following Yar’Adua’s death. He criticised the NEF’s approach, alleging that the group was clamouring for power shift to the Northwest and not the North. He said the agitation would have received a collective endorsement, if the three zones-Northwest, Northeast and Northcentral-are entitled to vie for the Presidency, if it is zoned to the region. Dismissing the insinuation that President Jonathan is not popular in the North, he said “there are millions of other Northerners that believe in the administration of Goodluck Jonathan”. Ebute also said that the NEF is a minority interest group in the region.

“But why should the North be disenchanted? President Shehu Shagari was the President for four years. He was elected for a second term before the military took over. Buhari spent one and half years. Babangida spent eight years. Abacha spent five years”, he added.

Another northerner, Gen. Lawrence Onoja (rtd), said the zoning controversy is unnecessary. He said the Jonathan’s Presidency has opened opportunities for national integration and boosted the confidence of the minority ethnic groups because they now have a sense of belonging. “It would be unfair and injustice to stop him from doing his second term. If he finishes his second term in 2019, then, other areas or blocs can now begin to agitate for power shift”, he added.

Onoja objected to the claim that the North has a collective interest in post-Ahmadu Bello period. He clarified that the the interest of the Middlebelt, which is a distinct geographical entity, is now different from the interest of the core North. “The demarcation has been there all along. It is just that the leaders that we had before, had the responsibility of making sure that we worked together as the same North. But yesterday is not the same as today. People are educated and exposed. So, if yesterday, some group of persons were dictating to us, today, people will not accept the dictation of anybody again. We, in the Middlebelt, are strong enough to go on our own in any situation”, he stressed.

The retired General said the so-called agreement between Jonathan and some Northern elders may be a ruse. “I am not privy to any agreement. I do not know if any agreement was signed. And I don’t think Mr. President signed any agreement with anybody. This is politics”, he said.

Second Republic Senator Chris Ukpabi who hails from Abia State, also faulted the power shift struggle, saying that “the born-to-rule” slogan is outdated. The elder statesman said that the agitation is laughable. “They are merely playing out a script, which had been handed over to them by the late Sarduana of Sokoto. On the October 12, 1960, that highly respected sage said Nigeria was their own private property bequeathed to them by their great grandfather, Usman Danfodio, and that they will resist any change in power, that the minorities of the North will be manipulated and the Southerners will be regarded as conquered territory. Unfortunately, they cannot do that”, he said.

Ukpabi wondered why a region that had produced civilian and military Heads of State, who had ruled for 38 years, is agitating for power shift, without sensitivity to the feelings of other competing zones. He said power shift should have human face, adding that the Presidency should rotate, not between the North and South, but among the six regions.”This North and South thing is an imaginary demarcation”, he fumed.

Benue State politician Senator Emmanuel Bwacha agreed with Ukpabi.He urged the minority ethnic groups to rally round Jonathan, who has broken the jinx. He said Providence has made it possible for the President to assume the reins at a time the minority groups were edged out by the large ethnic groups. “If Jonathan who is from the minority Southsouth can become the President, in the nearest future, an indigene of Taraba State can also be President”, he said.

A PDP chieftain from Bauchi State, Dr. Abdul Jhalil Balewa, lamented that the North/South dichotomy has continued to shape national politics, instead of merit, competence, capacity and track record of performance. He also said that regional outlook has displaced national outlook, stressing that it is a setback for the quest for national integration, unity and harmony. The politician, who is the son of former Prime Minister Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, urged Nigerians to consider the President for a second tern for two reasons. He said the President has the right to re-contest. The politician also said that, judging by the challenges that have confronted his administration, he has done his best.

“I am a northerner. But it is not true that the North has rejected the President. Many northerners will support him in 2015”, Balewa added.

2 thoughts on “2015 and PDP’s politics of zoning”

They are joking. My wahala is that by 2015 when Jonathan wins, this same Ango Abdullahi will be the first to switch over and start pushing nominees for Ministers and Ambassadors in shameless manner using their trade union called Northern Elders’ Forum as if they are the eldest in the North. Rubbish.

I support President Jonathan going for second term as stipulates in the constitution but the PDP as a party will decide. The constitution covers the Nigerians people but the PDP is a party that can take decision at will. But we should be careful.