News & Commentary:

September 2002 Archives

Articles/Commentary

The end of free marketsEuromoney Sep 2002
Is the three-year equity bear market nearing its end? Find out what kind of returns you can expect in this changed world, and how you can go about achieving them.

The new New dealEuromoney Sep 2002
The triumph of the Anglo-American model of capitalism no longer seems assured. In what direction is policy-making going? How viable are economic policies and how will this affect the markets?

NEWS ANALYSIS U.S. got what it preached in WTO's ruling for EUIHT Sep 2, 2002
The United States has always had a love-hate attitude toward free trade, but rarely has the ambivalence been greater than now. Having capitulated to demands by steelmakers for steep new tariffs in March, the Bush administration is now rushing to soothe trading partners and steel-consuming companies by excluding hundreds of products from the tariffs.

Reinsurance companiesEconomist Sep 2, 2002
Reinsurers, the insurance companies’ insurance companies and the foundation of the industry, are wondering what they have to do to make a profit. Although the premiums they charge their customers are rebounding, most are still suffering from the combined effects of falling stockmarkets and a string of calamities that have wiped out much of their capital. It could be years before they repair their finances. This could be bad news for the entire insurance industry, and its millions of customers worldwide.

The InternetEconomist Sep 4, 2002
Bertelsmann, a big European media group, is scaling back its Internet ambitions. Napster has also closed. Other companies are struggling to make money on the web. Yet e-commerce thrives for those who have got it right.

Global: One Year LaterStephen Roach (MSDW) Sep 4, 2002
The world tilted on September 11, 2001. The terrorist attacks on America shattered the innocence of the post-Cold War era. A US-centric global economy was subjected to new and uncertain strains. Since then, the world’s growth engine has continued to sputter, and globalization -- the glue that binds the world together -- has come under heightened pressure. But resilience has also been an unmistakable feature of the post-9-11 world. The global economy shuddered but did not tumble into the abyss. The passage of a year offers a fresh perspective on the impacts of the devastating shock of a year ago. What have we learned?

JOHANNESBURG SUMMIT Summit ends in broad pledge on world goalsIHT Sep 5, 2002
The UN World Summit on Sustainable Development ended Wednesday amid complaints by environmentalists that it had accomplished nothing and claims by political leaders that it set the scene for an ambitious program to cut poverty and clean up the environment.

Beware the HedgehogsWilliam Safire (NYT) Sep 5, 2002
Hedge funds, with their bank-backed leverage multiplied by investment in derivatives, ought to be required to disclose their operations.

Debt relief scheme missing targets, says IMFFT Sep 6, 2002
A flagship international debt relief scheme for the world's poorest countries is failing to free many countries from debt as it becomes clear that its forecasts were too optimistic, the IMF and World Bank have admitted.

My Encounter with the Poverty PimpsJim Peron (LF Electronic Times) Sep 9, 2002
The facade has faded. South Africa's government had been hoping that the Potemkin Village they created for the World Summit on Sustainable Development would last. But it didn't.

Russian oil for America: step toward a new world order?IHT Sep 9, 2002
A year after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks redefined U.S.-Russian relations, George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin are working to turn their new friendship into a tangible new partnership between the world's largest energy consumer and the steward of one of the world's largest energy reserves.

A pathological mutation in capitalismWilliam Pfaff (IHT) Sep 9, 2002
The orthodox response to the crisis of American capitalism is to reform the system, but reform is useless when the system itself has failed. Enron was a scandal but also the product of a pathological mutation in capitalism.

A hangover for Spanish firmsEconomist Sep 9, 2002
Confirmation of a huge new IMF loan for Brazil and the IMF’s decision to give Argentina more time to repay an existing credit will give both economies some breathing space. But they will provide only limited solace for hard-pressed Spanish companies. Many of these went on a spending spree in Latin America during the 1990s, only to suffer when prospects there turned sour.

Global: The Great Failure of Central BankingStephen Roach (MSDW) Sep 9, 2002
The economic prosperity of the last 20 years, in many respects, can be attributed to the triumph of central banking. Led by the indomitable Paul Volcker, America’s Federal Reserve was central to this outcome. The single-minded discipline of monetary austerity succeeded in ridding the US of the inflationary excesses that had built up during the 1970s. As a result, inflation targeting became the rage in other central banks around the world, most notably in Germany’s once proud and now marginalized Bundesbank. Inflation was vanquished from the macro scene and central bankers became the new icons of the ensuing prosperity.

Geopolitics have changed for the worseWilliam Pfaff (IHT) Sep 11, 2002
The attacks of last Sept. 11 broke the international geopolitical mold of the previous decade, which was set by the collapse of the Soviet system. That left an American military and political power monopoly, which generated fairly little real anxiety among the other major nations because the United States was considered a responsible custodian of world order.

The Nordic Banking Crisis from an International PerspectiveStefan Ingves (IMF) Sep 11, 2002
These days, I am invited to talk at many seminars all around the world—but let me say that I am especially honored and pleased to be participating in this one. The Nordic banking crisis is something that has occupied my mind a lot, and I think I can bring to the discussions of this seminar a unique perspective, because I have been an "insider" on both sides, first in the Nordic banking crisis itself and more recently in the international fight against banking crises and the discussions of what to do to prevent them. This is also an anniversary in the sense that I gave a speech about the Swedish banking crisis in this very hotel about 10 years ago.

War talk shakes up oil marketsIHT Sep 12, 2002
The intensifying U.S. drumbeat for a war in Iraq is driving up oil prices, shaking already fragile confidence in world equity markets and could, some analysts say, tip the global economy back into recession if the shooting starts.

Asean's Next ChapterGeorge Yeo (AWSJ) Sep 12, 2002
Member nations' political leadership has strengthened since the financial crisis.

Free trade in the AmericasEconomist Sep 12, 2002
Opposition stirred to the proposed Free-Trade Area of the Americas. Brazil's Catholic bishops organised a “plebiscite” against it. Venezuela's government promised a referendum on it next year.

IMF Approves Three-Year, US$17.8 Million PRGF Arrangement for UgandaIMF Sep 13, 2002
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today approved a three-year arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for SDR 13.5 million (about US$17.8 million) for Uganda. The Board determined that Uganda's poverty reduction strategy set out in a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) progress report provides a sound basis for Fund concessional financial assistance. As a result, Uganda will be able to draw SDR 1.5 million (about US$1.9 million) under the arrangement immediately.

IMF Approves a Three Year PRGF Credit for GuyanaIMF Sep 13, 2002
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a three-year credit under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for an amount equivalent to SDR 54.55 million (US$73 million) for Guyana. The Executive Board determined that Guyana's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) provides a sound basis for Fund concessional financial assistance. As a result, Guyana will be able to draw immediately up to SDR 5.55 million (about US$7.3 million) from the credit.

Split On GIs Overshadow Market Access Talks At WTO's Agriculture CommitteeBRIDGES Weekly Trade News Digest - Vol. 6, Number 30 Sep 13, 2002
Members met from 2-6 September at the Committee on Agriculture (CoA) to continue talks on market access as well as to prepare for the special (negotiating) session on domestic support scheduled to be held end of this month. Reading out his summary at the 6 September formal meeting, Chair of the CoA negotiating session, Stuart Harbinson, said that the last four days of informal negotiations had provided a lot more detail, but cautioned that "due to lack of specificity in some areas" he might not be able to prepare a first draft of the general rules ('modalities') for further farm trade liberalisation, as scheduled for the end of February 2003. His concerns may have been added to by recent statements from the EC and Switzerland indicating that they would only move in the agriculture talks if 'sufficient progress' was made on highly contentious issues such as the precautionary principle, mandatory labelling and expanding the protection of geographical indication (GIs). These subjects are currently being discussed (and/or negotiated upon) in various WTO Committees.

FSC Case Sees Largest WTO SettlementBRIDGES Weekly Trade News Digest - Vol. 6, Number 30 Sep 13, 2002
On 30 August 2002, WTO arbitrators gave the EU permission to apply sanctions (in the form of duties) on US goods valued at more than USD$ 4 billion until the US changed its tax policy to comply with the 'Foreign Sales Corporations' (FSC) case ruling. This amount is roughly equivalent to twenty times the amount of sanctions previous awarded at the WTO.

The euroEconomist Sep 16, 2002
In an unexpectedly strong showing, Sweden's Social Democratic party has held on to power in the general election. Immigration was one of the most controversial issues in the election campaign. Less prominent was the prospect of Swedish membership of the euro: the promised referendum looks to be at least a year away. Denmark seems equally ambivalent, if not downright sceptical; and so does Britain, currently marking the tenth anniversary of its forced exit from the Exchange Rate Mechanism, the precursor to the euro.

Biotech food can save millions of African livesJames Morris (IHT) Sep 18, 2002
Who has not now seen images in the media of the bone-thin children, the withered fields, and the empty store shelves in Southern Africa? The lines of desperate people waiting for food aid stretch longer each day. In rural villages there is a growing sense of panic. The regions' food crisis, spawned by natural disasters, the impact of AIDS and failed economic policies, is deepening with the approach of the long hot summer in sub-Saharan Africa. The next harvest is at least four months away. We will soon enter what humanitarian agencies call the "lean season," and without decisive action millions of lives are threatened.

Eurozone inflation overshoots ECB targetFT Sep 19, 2002
Inflation in the eurozone breached the European Central Bank's target in August according to data released on Wednesday by Eurostat, the European Commission's statistical body.

Opec strives to avoid costly oil slipFT Sep 19, 2002
Members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries had sprung no surprises as they entered a formal meeting on Thursday, agreeing informally to roll over existing quotas but deciding to meet in early December to review market conditions.

IMF warns of risks from account deficitsFT Sep 19, 2002
Current account deficits such as that in the US appear unsustainable over the medium term and could well be resolved with a difficult and painful adjustment, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

Foreign direct investmentEconomist Sep 19, 2002
Foreign direct investment fell by 51% in 2001 to around $735m, the biggest decline for over 30 years according to the World Investment Report. Despite the sudden waning of the cross-border merger frenzy, America still remains the biggest recipient of FDI with inflows of $124 billion.

UK Commission Report Highlights Negative Impacts Of IPRs On DevelopmentBRIDGES Weekly Trade News Digest - Vol. 6, Number 31 Sep 18, 2002
The UK Commission on Intellectual Property Rights (CIPR) -- an independent body set up in May 2001 by the British government -- released its final report on 12 September, setting out a number of recommendations aimed at aligning intellectual property rights (IPR) protection with efforts to reduce poverty in developing countries. Many civil society groups welcomed the report as a reflection of widespread concerns regarding the IPR regime. Some industry groups, however, expressed concerns about the Commission's endorsement of compulsory licensing and parallel imports as means to address problems of access to medicines in poor countries.

DSU Review: Developing Countries Reject US Proposal On Transparency, Suggest Other OptionsBRIDGES Weekly Trade News Digest - Vol. 6, Number 31 Sep 18, 2002
At a 10-11 September special (negotiating) session of the WTO Dispute Settlement Body (DSB), the US tabled a proposal outlining its ideas on how to achieve a "more open and transparent process" by opening dispute settlement procedures to the public, providing timely access to submissions and reports, as well as formalising the handling of so- called amicus curiae [friend of the court] briefs. However, the US' submission met stiff resistance from many -- mostly developing country - - Members, who put forward demands on improved internal access to dispute settlement proceedings and more effective enforcement mechanisms for developing countries.

IMF chief sees upside of a short war in IraqIHT Sep 20, 2002
A short-term military action in Iraq would probably have only a minor impact on the world economy, and could even produce a "positive effect" by eliminating uncertainty over the situation, according to the head of the International Monetary Fund.

Europe Is Giving Up on ItselfStephen Roach (MSDW) Sep 20, 2002
These past two weeks in Europe have been sort of an epiphany for me. The hopes and promises of the European Monetary Union (EMU) are now ringing hollow. Eleven cities later -- on the Continent and in the UK -- and there can be no mistaking the sense of despair that is gripping this region. Europe has lost its way. And with a deep sense of resignation, the Europeans know it.

Asia Pacific: ASEAN -- Revival or Irrelevance?Daniel Lian (MSDW) Sep 20, 2002
Is ASEAN Reviving or Becoming Irrelevant? In recent weeks both the media and policy makers in the ten-member ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) have been trying to boost morale and drum up international support for this three and a half-decade-old organization of economic cooperation.

Where it matters most, globalization thrivesThomas L. Friedman (IHT) Sep 23, 2002
If one were having a contest for the most wrongheaded prediction about the world after Sept. 11, the winner would be the declaration by the noted London School of Economics professor John Gray that Sept. 11 heralded the end of the era of globalization. Not only will Sept. 11 not be remembered for ending the process of global financial, trade and technological integration, but it may well be remembered for bringing some sobriety to the antiglobalization movement.

China attracts more foreign investors than USFT Sep 23, 2002
China has for the first time supplanted the US as the most attractive destination for foreign direct investment, according to a survey of senior executives of the world's largest companies.

Investment banksEconomist Sep 25, 2002
The weakness of stockmarkets and dearth of mergers and acquisitions continue to spell hard times for investment banks. Unless markets and the banks’ advisory businesses pick up by the end of the year, many may be forced to retrench yet again.

Impasse On Farm Subsidies Seen As 'Step Backwards' In Agriculture TalksBRIDGES Weekly Trade News Digest - Vol. 6, Number 32 Sep 25, 2002
At a 23-25 September informal negotiating session of the Committee on Agriculture (CoA) on domestic support, no progress was made on most contentious farm subsidy issues. This included an impasse on issues such as whether the so-called Green Box should be made more flexible or be tightened - a development which trade sources evaluated as a "step backwards" in the current agriculture negotiations. Addressing negotiating blocs such as the 'Friends of Multifunctionality' and the 'Cairns Group' of agriculture-exporting countries, in his conclusion CoA special session Chair Stuart Harbinson pointed to "tendencies to monolithic positions" amongst Members. Harbinson further stated that the "lack of specificity in a number of areas" would exacerbate his attempts to come up with an overview paper on possible negotiating 'modalities' options by the end of the year. Sources reported that Harbinson called on Members to "switch their mindsets from portrayal of maximising national positions" to an "effort to compromise and bridging gaps."

Still No Movement In TRIPs Council On Health Or GIsBRIDGES Weekly Trade News Digest - Vol. 6, Number 32 Sep 25, 2002
Discussions on intellectual property rights and public health at the Council for Trade-related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) continued to make little headway at the last session of the Council on 17-20 September. Apart from a new submission received from Switzerland, WTO Members made no progress in the debate, largely restating their positions.

IMF pares forecast for global economyIHT Sep 26, 2002
Faced with an increasingly uncertain global economy, the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday lowered its world growth forecast for next year and warned that "risks to the outlook are primarily on the downside."

The era of market fundamentalism is overRobert Weissman (IHT) Sep 26, 2002
Marketization, deregulation, privatization and the opportunities for market manipulation offered by inadequate regulation - all central elements in the rise and fall of Enron - are now discredited in the United States. And in developing countries, where their effects have been most devastating, they are the object of widespread public opprobrium. Unfortunately, the IMF and the World Bank continue to sing from the market fundamentalist hymnal.

Greenspan praises London's success storyFT Sep 26, 2002
Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, has hailed the success of London in staying "at the top of the world's financial pyramid" despite the creation of the euro. Speaking at the opening of the new UK Treasury building, Mr Greenspan said London had continued to thrive as a financial centre despite loss of empire, the revolution in telecommunications and the emergence of the European single currency. "London has stayed on top in the provision of financial services despite the emergence of the euro, which some expected would divert a significant share of foreign exchange trading to a single centre on the continent," he said.

Global economy woes test IMF's faithFT Sep 26, 2002
The world economic recovery is sputtering. Economic concerns will come to the fore at this week's meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. And even for the IMF's most senior officials, there are worries about the durability of the globalisation project unless it receives more balanced and consistent support. Speaking to the Financial Times, Horst Köhler, the IMF's managing director, voiced his frustration with trying to keep the globalisation project on track against its many critics.

IMF Executive Board Approves New Conditionality GuidelinesIMF Sep 26, 2002
The Executive Board of the IMF has approved new guidelines on the design and implementation of conditionality in Fund-supported programs. The guidelines represent the culmination of a comprehensive and far-reaching review of conditionality launched two years ago with the purpose of enhancing the effectiveness of Fund-supported programs. They also represent the first revision of the IMF's conditionality guidelines since 1979.

A Time for CautionEconomist Sep 26, 2002
The IMF added to the gloom. Its World Economic Outlook suggested that the world economy is recovering only slowly. Estimates for America's growth this year were cut to 2.2% and slashed for 2003. The Fund now expects the world economy to grow by just 3.7% in 2003, down from 4%.

The world economy in the doldrumsEconomist Sep 26, 2002
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but voiced growing concerns over the slow rate of America's economic recovery. Alan Greenspan, the Fed's chairman, arrived in Britain to receive an honorary knighthood for his efforts at maintaining economic stability.

Emerging marketsEconomist Sep 27, 2002
Several emerging-market economies are in the midst of a major financial crisis. How much of the blame should be laid at the door of the international financial institutions that are supposed to be sorting things out?

An Institution that Eases Financial PainKenneth Rogoff (IMF) Sep 27, 2002
Many people view the International Monetary Fund as an agent of austerity. Indeed, the popularity of this view is surely one reason why left-leaning anti-Fund polemics sometimes sell well in bookshops, even while right-leaning critics call for the IMF to stop interfering with the natural selection process of market forces.

Is the Gold Standard History?Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. (Mises Daily) Sep 27, 2002
In the 19th century, notes Murray N. Rothbard, debates on monetary issues were highly public and intensely controversial. Do you favor the national bank? The gold standard? Bimetallism? What is your opinion of the free silver movement? What is most important: a highly liquid money stock that can prop up commodity prices, or a sound dollar that promotes thrift and discourages debt accumulation? Should the monetary system reward debtors or creditors?

'Not so fast' is new reform lineIHT Sep 27, 2002
In moments of candor, the anti-globalization activists planning to storm Washington streets Friday and Saturday acknowledge that their movement is struggling to regain momentum after the Sept. 11 attacks, which dampened the appeal of militant protest and diverted attention from issues such as Third World debt cancellation.

NATO to admit 7 East European nationsIHT Sep 27, 2002
After months of intense diplomacy, the NATO alliance is set to invite seven Eastern European countries to be new members, the biggest expansion in its 53-year history.

G24 Press ConferenceIMF Sep 27, 2002
Transcript of a Press Conference of the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four on International Monetary Affairs and Development.

World Bank grant kicks off Bank-WTO assistance on standardsWTO Sep 27, 2002
The World Bank and the World Trade Organization are establishing a new fund, called the Standards and Trade Development Facility, as part of their efforts to link aid to trade opportunities in the fight against poverty.

IMF fights for new sovereign debt rulesFT Sep 30, 2002
An intricate game of policy poker unfolded at the Washington meetings of the International Monetary Fund this weekend, with the IMF apparently ready to call its opponents' bluff over plans for a new approach to sovereign bankruptcy. At stake is the drive by the fund and its dominant Group of Seven shareholder countries to change the rules for governments that cannot pay their debts. The G7 has a twin-track approach: first, putting "collective action clauses" (CACs) into bond contracts to make it easier to renegotiate debt if a country gets into trouble; second, a "sovereign chapter 11" procedure to arbitrate between creditors and debtors.

G7 ministers confident over global economyFT Sep 30, 2002
The finance ministers of leading countries tried to boost confidence in the global economy at their meeting this weekend, saying the recovery should strengthen despite continued risks. The Group of Seven rich countries also promised to push forward on several fronts with a comprehensive plan to prevent and ease financial crises, despite objections to parts of the programme from emerging market countries.

Comment & analysis: The brutal slowdownFT Sep 30, 2002
As venture capital dries up and R&D spending falls for the first time in decades, America's once-booming technology heartland is adjusting to an uncertain future. Paul Abarahams asks wheether the downturn is cyclical - or whether the golden days of innovation have gone for good.

Must Do BetterEconomist Sep 30, 2002
World finance ministers have been meeting in Washington amid increasing concern about the risks to global economic growth. There is little sign that their discussions have made much difference.