The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

Closely related to the familiar Tufted Titmouse in the eastern U.S., the range-restricted Black-crested Titmouse is widespread in southern, central, and western Texas. Where the two titmouse species overlap, there is extensive hybridization. Audubon’s climate model forecasts an unstable climate future for the Black-crested Titmouse: only 14% of the current core of suitable climate space remains stable, but with gains north and east of the current range. If the Black-crested follows the predicted expansion northeastward, it will come into increased contact with the Tufted Titmouse, raising the possibility of extensive interbreeding of the two species.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.