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The Yankees have won at least 95 games in each of the past four seasons, but as of right now itís hard to see them winning that many games again in 2013. They donít have a starting catcher, a starting right fielder, a starting third baseman, a DH, or a bench. Thereís still more than two months of offseason left to address those needs, but as of right now the Yankees look like an 85-win team. In fact, SGís most recent CAIRO projections have New York winning 85 games in 2013, good enough for third place in the AL East but not a playoff spot.

So far this offseason both the Red Sox and Blue Jays have improved their teams quite a bit while the Rays have taken a step back (by trading James Shields) and the Orioles have done absolutely nothing other than cut ties Mark Reynolds. Isnít that weird? That a surprise, upstart team like the Orioles has done nothing to improve in an effort to make another run? Anyway, the AL East again figures to be a very tight race ó SGís projections have four of the five teams winning 84-86 games ó next year and therefore the value of every win added this offseason means that much more.

Thatís the concept of marginal wins. With four of the five AL East teams currently projected to win between 84-86 games, the team that adds say, three wins through a free agent signing (Kevin Youkilis?) will improve their chances that much more. Furthermore, a 75-win team adding a three-win player doesnít have the same impact as an 85-win team adding a three-win player because only one of those teams is realistically improving their shot at a playoff berth. A playoff berth brings playoff revenue and all sorts of neat stuff. Grabbing those three (an arbitrary number I pulled out of the air to use as an example) wins is a significant move in the AL East right now.

The new playoff system has shifted the marginal win spectrum a bit. Going from those 85 wins to 88 wins improved your chances of getting a wildcard spot, and under the old rules a wildcard team had as much of a chance as the three division winners. Now itís so much more important to win the division in an effort to avoid that one-game, winner-take-all wildcard scenario (which might not even be a revenue-generating home game), and 88 wins wonít be enough for the AL East crown. Itís going to take something like 93-96 wins, maybe more. Going from 85 to 88 helps a bit, but making a series of moves to go from 85 to 93 wins would help a lot more.

Without doing an in-depth and literal WAR analysis, the losses of Nick Swisher, Russell Martin, and Alex Rodriguez will cost the Yankees something like seven games in the standings assuming replacement level replacements. Figure four for Swisher and two each for Martin and Rodriguez. Theyíll get some of those wins back by replacing 2012′s left field conglomerate with Brett Gardner and some more by replacing Freddy Garcia with Andy Pettitte. Derek Jeter is unlikely to replicate his 2012 production though, so thatís another hit. Replacing those seven wins wonít be easy, especially since there really isnít a way to replace Martin. Maybe Youkilis and Ichiro Suzuki sign and each put up a surprising three-win season, but they Yankees would still need more to break their way to make up for the production theyíre losing.

The Orioles were a surprise contender this year and even if they take a step back without the benefit of a historically good record in one-run games, the Blue Jays should step in to take their spot among AL East contenders. The Rays are always tough, with or without Shields, and the Red Sox will be better than they showed last year. The division race will again be very tight next season and grabbing those marginal wins this offseason, even by overpaying for them, greatly improves each teamís chances to win the AL East. The Yankees are actually in a position to add a number of wins to their current roster given the opportunity to upgrade in multiple positions, which isnít something you canít really say about the other four teams in the division.

I didn't read if you guys discussed this but the Reds are giving up crap to get Choo.

Wonder why we didn't get in on that.....ugh.

I wouldnt say they aren't giving up "crap"..there's another player involved that hasn't been mentioned yet. Also choo is under control for 1 more year with his agent being scott boras. The big name player they are getting has 3 more years of team control, plus another position player yet to be named.

I wouldnt say they aren't giving up "crap"..there's another player involved that hasn't been mentioned yet. Also choo is under control for 1 more year with his agent being scott boras. The big name player they are getting has 3 more years of team control, plus another position player yet to be named.

I didn't read if you guys discussed this but the Reds are giving up crap to get Choo.

Wonder why we didn't get in on that.....ugh.

DiDi has stud written all over him. He's one of the best defensive shortstops in the minors, and despite the low batting average, has great hitting potential. Very good shortstop prospect. Don't see why they're keeping Cozart instead of DiDi, especially since Cozart's value is higher right now and DiDi is going to be better.

As for Stubbs, I really hoped we'd get in on him. Low batting average, but great other tools. And I REALLY wanted Choo.

DiDi has stud written all over him. He's one of the best defensive shortstops in the minors, and despite the low batting average, has great hitting potential. Very good shortstop prospect. Don't see why they're keeping Cozart instead of DiDi, especially since Cozart's value is higher right now and DiDi is going to be better.

As for Stubbs, I really hoped we'd get in on him. Low batting average, but great other tools. And I REALLY wanted Choo.

I've heard that they might flip DiDi to the Diamondbacks in that big four-team deal mentioned earlier that sends Upton to Texas. If that's the case, I'm mad that the Reds wouldn't just do DiDi/Cozart + Leake + prospects for Upton. Upton would fit perfectly between Votto and Bruce in that lineup. Scary.

Also, I'm pretty sure Cleveland's top two prospects are both shortstops. Lindor is going to be a stud, and Wolters is no pushover, either. Not sure why they're so keen on keeping Asdrubal if they're trying to rebuild.

EDIT: Again, DiDi is a stud. Check this out from Bob Nightengale of USA Today. (via twitter)

The #Dbacks would much prefer getting Gregorius back from the #Indians for young pitching than Cabrera

The Reds are my NL team, and as much as I love Choo and Ludwick, the fact that the DBacks are so high on DiDi makes me mad that the Reds didn't go after Upton.