Steve writes editorials for each issue of Forbes under the heading of “Fact and Comment.” A widely respected economic prognosticator, he is the only writer to have won the highly prestigious Crystal Owl Award four times. The prize was formerly given by U.S. Steel Corporation to the financial journalist whose economic forecasts for the coming year proved most accurate.

In both 1996 and 2000, Steve campaigned vigorously for the Republican nomination for the Presidency. Key to his platform were a flat tax, medical savings accounts, a new Social Security system for working Americans, parental choice of schools for their children, term limits and a strong national defense. Steve continues to energetically promote this agenda.

Romney Will Win Decisively

Mitt Romney will win big tonight. His popular vote margin will be between 3 – 5%. He will win the Electoral College I believe by a vote of 321 to 217, and with luck, even more. He will win all of the states McCain carried in 2008 which will give him 180 electoral votes. He will also carry the three states that normally go Republican that in 2008 went for Obama – Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia. That brings him to 219. He will also take Florida, which will bring him to 248 votes. Although the Obama campaign will deny it, it effectively wrote off Virginia and Florida several days ago.

Despite intense efforts, Obama will lose both Ohio and Pennsylvania. In Ohio the voter turnout for Republicans will be more like 2004 instead of 2008. Southeastern Ohio has a number of evangelical voters and the area also has a coal industry. Romney should win the state by up to 200,000 votes. He will also win Pennsylvania where he has not been damaged by a long-lasting barrage of negative ads.

Romney should also win narrowly in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado. He even has a chance to take Nevada. That gives him 321 electoral votes.

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But, Mr. Forbes, you said that Rick Perry was going to win this election! I was still holding out hope that he would, as you are clearly an expert in these matters and would never state your hopes and opinions as fact. I was really worried that Obama was going to win because of FiveThirtyEight’s extremely accurate statistical models and aggregated polling data (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/). Thankfully, though, we’ve got you to tell us who is going to win despite the “facts” that every poll is showing right now. #sarcasm

Since you are so smart about this Mr Forbes, please could you also explain how Mr Romney plans to cut taxes by 5T, spend another 2T on add’l defense, and still manage to balance the budget without raising taxes. Paul Ryan said it was “too complicated” and that it would take “too long to explain”.

But you sir have the perfect platform .. your own magazine (nice BTW) and the extensive financial background to make sense of it. Please get started, the poles are closing!

Anyway, if you bothered to read the article, he pointed out that he doesn’t buy the methodology used by most of the polls. We’ll see. If Rasmussen got the methodology right, Forbes won’t be all that far off.

As for hiring 10 liberal bloggers, maybe you should check out these Forbes blogs more often. There are plenty of liberals here.

From your mouth to God’s ears! What will we do if there is no change to believe in? Four years is an eternity when you can’t trust your govenment. A man who cannot tell the truth should NEVER be able to call himself the leader of the free world. SOMEBODY STOP HIM!!

“A man who cannot tell the truth should NEVER be able to call himself the leader of the free world”

You’re talking about Romney here, right? Romney is the one who’s been on every side of every issue at one time or another over the past 10 months. Obama has been pretty consistent over the past 4 years.

If lying bothers you, and it should, you pretty much have to vote Obama

I really hope you’re right. This has been one of the most stressful days of my life. I’ve been feeling all day like I’m waiting to find out from a judge if I’ve been given a death sentence or not, or like I’m awaiting the results of a biopsy on a tumor or something. It really is gut wrenching as a negative result would mean four more long years of total despair for those of us who are trying so hard to grow our companies and hire more people.

1. If the methodology of all of the polls are in question, based on using flawed models, then why hasn’t anyone bothered to correct this? (including Romney campaign and Fox News)

2. I absolutely agree with you regarding the message on the campaign’s; Romney’s IS upbeat. It’s not grounded in reality at all (or burdened by things like “proof” or “details”), but damn it all if it isn’t optimistic.

3. You can LOSE the popular vote and still win the electoral college–which is actually what Obama is set to do this time around. Granted, it won’t be a landslide win.

4. One of the absolute biggest problems that I have with today’s Republicans on the national scene is their callous ignorance and disregard for anyone’s rights save their own. For instance, you label Todd Akin’s “legitimate rape” comment a misstep–I call it blind, farcical stupidity in the face of ALL science and reason that presents true danger to the US populace as a whole.

5. I hope that the Republicans lose, and lose bad, just so that they can actually undergo the kind of transformation that should have happened in 2008; one where they actually stay true to their professed beliefs of fiscal discipline and individual liberty for everyone.

Just signed up to Forbes. Find it a good spot to get useful practical resource for my work in the Not For Profit sector. (I live in Australia)

One thing that surprises me about the coverage of this very exciting election is the way news outlets seem to push one side or the other. I may be wrong (often am) but I look for news outlets that will gives me facts from both sides. I find it hard to trust a story if it seems to be backing red or blue. I am a huge fan of the US, the commitment you have to democracy and willingness to defend and support the more vulnerable people in the the world is one of the reasons I got into the work I do here in OZ. Looking forward to see democracy in action through the day.

Oh boy, you bet U.S. media is polarized. As a fellow foreigner, here’s my analysis: The American psyche preaches self-reliance, and this extends to their media. In other words, it’s up to you, as a consumer of news media, to seek out voices from all sides of the argument; you can’t expect to be spoon-fed a balanced diet from one single outlet.

Of course, few if any outlets admit to this, leading to farcical statements such as “fair and balanced” which actually equates to being an antidote, rather than a beacon of even-handedness.

I really hope you are wrong here, but I do see your logic that if the party turnout rates resemble 2004 we may be in for a surprise. A lot of polls have suggested that Democrats are actually more engaged than Republicans, but who knows. That’s why everyone should vote. I have to add that I really respect Forbes for being a conservative institution that consistently features intelligent reporting and opinion on both sides of issues. You are doing what FOX should be doing as well. This respect goes to you personally as well, Steve, for being the leader of the organization. Democracy in America is better because of your managerial philosophy.

This would have been a relatively easy election to win if the Republicans had picked a better candidate. As has often been the case, they didn’t and they got what they deserved.

Steve: Take my advice and stop predicting Presidential elections. Regardless of your political preferences why don’t you think about supporting a middle of the road candidate who is willing to try to reform Wall Street for the benefit of the average US citizen. Obama was there for the taking and you and your friends blew it.

sorry, reasonable people like huntsman have no place in the old, white, angry, rich guy party. i mean he came right out and said he believed in science, but he was still a cult member of the mormon cult and its god of kolob.

Certainly Mr. Mitt won big. He is now poised to become the new governor of the Cayman Islands and he will get royal treatment when he lands his private chopper in the WH gardens during a state visit. Mr. Steve could be appointed as his special advisor in the science of “future predicting“Meanwhile, a woman will be elected president in 2016.

gee, got any stocktips for me? how the heck does someone like you become rich? oh, I forgot — you inherit it. Guess you forgot too that your exalted place in life is *not* a reflection on your intelligence?

Nor is his inaccurate prediction a reflection of his intelligence. He was using rational reasoning to predict the outcome. Any idiot on the street could have predicted that Obama will win. Does that make them more intelligent because they were correct?

What does his money or wealth have to do with anything? The guy made an inaccurate prediction about the outcome but he was right about the popular vote.

I seriously wonder what’s wrong with people, belittling everyone they come across online just because it makes them feel better. Authors of these articles are people, not robots. Time to grow up (though it’s probably too late to bother).

If any idiot could have predicted Obama, then, yes, predicting Obama isn’t proof of intelligence. But in that case, predicting someone other than Obama is evidence much more consistent with being downright stupid than with being intelligent. Money & wealth have a lot to do with lack of humility. Many rich people confuse their success with insight & blithely ignore empirical evidence. That’s what caused the financial crisis. If *Forbes* were smart, he’d think a lot harder before relying on his own judgment when evidence — which he clearly doesn’t understand — is against him. … Honestly, it’s just too easy to win this argument

Get you nose out of the loser, rich, self-righteous pricks asshole. He, I promise does not give a shit about you and by his actions proves it. He makes money off others misfortunes and is a disgusting human and he and those like him are being pushed further and further back just as the kings that use to rule but now DO NOT. Money and power corrupts ABSOLUTE. If no one ever stands up to these tyrants then they will destroy us all. History of human kind stands on my side so what now blowhard?

That tin foil hat does not seem to fit there STEVE. Hows it feel to be the laughing stock of America, eh? LOSER. Now how about you and your sorry ass cronies get off your self-righteous high horse and help the people that help you get your wealth. “WE” built this not “YOU” built this, dumbass.

It’s not about the (R) Steve, it’s what’s inside that matters. Romney was empty.

Worry not Mr. Forbes. Private Property Rights, Liberty, the America our founders would be proud of, can be built now.

The right was not ready to lead in 2012, in a way that would have improved America. You have to face the truth of what happened. Romney lost because he wasn’t any good.

Romney did not lose because liberty, or conservatism doesn’t work or win. Romney lost because he is a pandering RINO.

The right is always disgusted with pandering RINOs after all hopes of winning an election through them are exhausted. We need to stop standing in the line of open fire. & being surprised when we get shot through the heart.

I’m going Locke, Jefferson, & Madison. My fight began last night. Liberty is not lost. Merely out of practice. We did it once, we’ll have to do it again.

Mr Forbes, your tag line said it but you didn’t get it , understanding that is.If you did the Republican party would have exiled it’s extreme nut jobs and consequently would have picked up enough centrist votes to win the election.The demographic shift is inexorable, it’s time for the Republican party to embrace that reality or face the fate of the Republican party predecessor, the Whig Party.

I just wish that you had been right, but one thing you (and I) forgot was something Albert Einstein is credited with saying, “Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not sure about the former.”

Oh lord this amuses me. I’m just wandering around today looking at all the websites that were predicting a Romney win despite all the clear evidence to the contrary. Everyone bashing Nate Silver’s predictions, despite the fact that he was spot on last time, and spot on in the midterms.

Guess what, guys? Turns out fivethirtyeight isn’t voodoo nonsense. His methods work. EVERY STATE fell the way his model predicted. Last time, 49 of 50 fell the way he predicted. Pay attention to what his model predicts, and you won’t make a tremendous ass of yourself like this.

I guess Nate Silver and all that “math” stuff is better at predicting the outcome of the election than Mr. Forbes. Wrong on the President, wrong on the Senate…but hey, at least you were right about the House. I will also concede that part of your ‘in depth’ Senate race analysis was correct. Shorter version – too many nutjobs for the good people of this country to take. I’m not sure how people on the right could look at poll after poll that showed the President ahead and still convinced themselves that Rmoney was going to win. Turn off Fox News and let the truth set you free.

Eating crow, indeed. You were so far off the mark it is amazing to me, and so were the other Republican pundits. Hope you can keep the feathers from sticking in your teeth this week as you try to gulp down your well-earned dinner.

You aren’t the only conservative pundit who missed the mark. When a knowledgable person makes a prediction error of this magnitude, it means that attitudes or assumptions were operating below the level of conscious awareness to filter out important information. I’m curious: Is there any reflection or introspection going on here? If not, why should any of your readers follow your advice on such matters in the future?

Romney will win popular vote by 3-5%? WRONG Romney will win electoral college 321 – 217? WRONG Romney will win the states McCain carried in 2008? RIGHT (but it would have been really embarrassing to the Republicans if Romney had not carried such states as Louisiana, Georgia, Texas, etc.) Romney will carry Indiana? RIGHT Romney will win North Carolina? RIGHT Romney will win Virginia? WRONG Romney will win Florida? WRONG Romney will win Pennsylvania? WRONG Romney will win Ohio? WRONG Evangelical vote will win Ohio for Romney? WRONG (in fact evangelical voter turnout in Ohio was down from 2008) Romney will win New Hampshire? WRONG Romney will win Wisconsin? WRONG Romney will win Iowa? WRONG Romney will win Colorado? WRONG Romney may win Nevada? WRONG

You’re being too kind to Mr. Forbes. He predicted upsets in a couple of solidly democratic states as well, and added half a dozen other bogus predictions too. I would say his record is < 10%, which demonstrates how deluded he was .

What an imbecile. It’s unbelievable that someone so clueless can become wealthy in America, and clear proof that we need a level playing field for everyone. That’s the only way that morons like Steve Forbes will end up where they should- sinking to the bottom of the pile and picking up trash along a highway.

So who didn’t show up? The independents? The Christians? The Libertarians? Or was all that cheating in Pennsylvania and Ohio just the tip of the iceberg? Someone is always miffed that their candidate was not nominated and sits out an election despite the fact that the opponent is a horrible choice. The Republicans always seem to want the “perfect” candidate and then nominate whomever is “next.” The two year Republican debate show took its toll on Romney and all his rivals. Maybe it is time to hand out the cigars and head to the back room.

This federal government takes in two trillion a year & spends three & a half trillion. Debt that is going to have Europe collapse, is on Americas’ heels too. I’ll tell you why free markets are better, because no one can afford covert communism. Watch Europe collapse, & look at what we spend.

What big government spends today, will take America to hell very soon.

Obama will win big tonight. His popular vote margin will be between 3 – 5%. He will win the Electoral College I believe by a vote of 332 to 206, and with luck, even more. He will win all of the states that he carried in 2008 which will give him 180 electoral votes. He will also carry Virginia, one of the three states that normally go Republican that in 2008 went for Obama – Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia. That brings him to 219. He will also take Florida also. Although the Romney campaign will deny it, it effectively wrote off Virginia and Florida several days ago.

Despite intense efforts, Romney will lose both Ohio and Pennsylvania. In Ohio the voter turnout for Democrats will be more like 2008 instead of 2004. Southeastern Ohio has a number of evangelical voters and the area also has a coal industry. Obama should win the state by up to 200,000 votes. Obama will also win Pennsylvania where he has not been damaged by a long-lasting barrage of negative ads.

Obama should also win narrowly in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado. He even has a chance to take Nevada. That gives him 321 electoral votes.

I just happened to stumble across this while I was reading about something else…. this is f***ing hilarious. I thought it was a joke, satirizing the right wing… until I saw the date that it was published. I have to admit, despite all the polls showing Obama was leading the swing states, I wasn’t totally certain about the result of the election (even Nate Silver was only 90% certain), but to interpret the polls this way?! Steve Forbes should move to Colorado or Washington so at least he can get under the influence legally before he writes his articles.

This is whata happens when you inherit money, you are born on third base and think you hit a triple. There is literally no way he could have been more wrong. I knmow this hppened three months ago, but really, This bloviating also-ran now has called into question every judgement he has ever made regarding the future or numbers. He don’t know bupkis. He is a pineapple faced, self serving, bubble dweller. Did he ever publish a response to the actual results???