The Hawks will almost surely lose tonight at Cleveland, so you can go ahead put a 51 next to them. The Hornets will likely win against the Bucks, and then, of course, you've got the Battle for the Roses in Portland - Blazers/Sonics, tipping off at 7 tonight on FSN (or KGW if you swing that way).

I don't like to call any game "must lose," but if were to call a game "must lose" I would most assuredly call tonight's game a "must lose." The Blazers will be without Randolph, Aldridge, Roy, and Udoka. The Sonics are missing Allen, Ridnour, and Watson. That means the starting lineups will look like this:

Seattle:Lewis, Wilkins, Wilcox, Collison, Wilks

Portland:Webster, LaFrentz, Magloire, Jack, Jones

Call me crazy, but I'm giving the edge to Portland, The Sonics are starting 3 guys (Wilkins, Collison, Wilks) who are all really bench players. Tonight will tell if the Sonics can continue pummeling the Blazers as in the past two games, but I'm betting on the Rose City.

6 comments:

Silvio
said...

I think we'll win this one.

Sure the starting 5 doesn't looks that bad for the Blazers, but they're not playing them that many minutes(hardly anyone over 30 a game). We, on the other hand, are playing our starters for at least 35 minutes and that's why I think we'll win this one.

I think the reason the Blazers don't play their guys more minutes is because they actually have a bench. Look who they're bringing off the bench, and compare it to the Sonics:

Portland: Dickau, Sergio Rodriguez, Outlaw, FReddie Jones

Seattle: Gelabale, Livingston, Petro, Brown

Half of the Sonics' guys have been in the AMerica for 5 minutes, and the other half were called up from the DL. THe Blazers' four guys are way more experienced.

You could say that Hill should have developed his bench this year, rather than forcing his starters to play 40 minutes a night, and you'd be right. BUt the fact remains that the reason Portland doesn't play guys more than 30-33 minutes is they don't have to.

I think the Sonics could really get blown out tonight, because as they showed in the Phoenix game, they get tired in the third in fourth quarters.

Interesting comparison. ussmariner.com had a thing yesterday called "Would you flip 'em?" comparing Rangers v Mariners at each position. Let's try the same thing with the Sonics and Blazers (and, yes, salary counts), assuming everyone is healthy:

"Lewis will be one of the most coveted free agents on the market in the offseason and he said the Blazers would be a good destination for him, particularly with his good relationship with McMillan, who used to coach Seattle. 'I still got a lot of growing to do myself,' Lewis said. 'It would be good to grow with these guys and be more of a focal point and be built around.'"

Shard going to Portland would only be possible via sign and trade and I'm not sure if I like what they could offer in such a deal.

They would have to include either Randolph(4 more years) or LaFrentz(2 more years) and I don't like those two guys.

So the only possibility I see would be a 3 team deal that gives us something else than those two.

@nuss:Yeah, you're right. We don't have a bench anymore and have to play our starters more. Still, even with everyone on board I don't think that our bench is great at all. So far for that we're 2 deep at every position talk before the draft.

Though, I'd still like to see Sene getting more minutes and I don't understand why Wilkins is playing 30+ minutes, while Gelabale hardly gets 20+.....

I agree, it doesn't make sense to be playing anyone 40+ minutes at this point. If this organization had any sense of its future, it would be trying to use Gelabale at the point, rather than bringing in Livingston and wasting minutes on him. Not that he isn't deserving of being in the NBA, but doesn't it make more sense to find out if Gelabale can play the point, since he's going to be on your team for the next few year?

As for Sene, he's in a crappy spot. Even if he gets a lot of time this summer in the summer leagues, he's stuck behind Collison, Wilcox, Petro and Swift at the 4/5 spot, which means in a best-case scenario he's going to be playing 5 minutes a game next year.

In other words, by the time he's ready to start contributing in the league, the Sonics will see him walk away in free agency. Thanks, Rick Sund!