Conservatives on course for landslide victory in election, poll suggests

Observer/ Opinium survey indicates Tory party has doubled its leading over Labour to 19 degrees since Theresa Mays announcement

The Tories have more than doubled their leading over Labour to 19 degrees since Theresa May called a snap general election last Tuesday, according to a new poll that recommends the Conservatives are heading for a landslide victory on 8 June.

The survey by Opinium for the Observer , conducted on Wednesday and Thursday of last week, throws the Tories on 45%( up seven degrees compared with the previous week ), while Labour is down three points on 26%.

The leap in backing for the Tories, and Labours fall, entail the gap between the two main parties has widened from nine points to 19 degrees in a matter of periods levels of support which, if replicated on polling period, could fasten a Commons majority for May of around 100 seats.

The poll also shows subsistence developing for the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats, who are up four degrees on 11%, and a dramatic dropped in backing for Ukip, which is down five points to 9 %, from 14% the week before. Backing for the Lib Dems suggests that the partys clear anti-Brexit strategy is appealing to hardcore Remain voters.

Separate analysis by Opinium, which has been tracking the same 2,000 voters throughout this parliament, found that merely 53% of those who had said they intended to vote Ukip in February are still planning to do so in the 8 June election, with 30% of them saying they will transfer devotion to the Tories.

The crumbling of backing for Ukip appears to be the main reason for the dramatic surge in exuberance for Mays party. Labours fall may be the result of voters who were strongly in favour of Remain in the Brexit referendum last June deserting the party for the anti-Brexit Lib Dems.

When those who now choose the Lib Dems were asked to give the main reason they are deciding to back Tim Farrons party, 50% said that it was because of its stance on Brexit. Only 6% of Labour voters mentioned Jeremy Corbyns stance on Brexit was their main reason for backing Labour.

The poll recommends sentiments are hardening in favour of May and the Tories, and against Corbyn, across a variety of indicators. More than two-thirds of UK voters( 66%) now expect May to remain as prime minister after such elections, while 7% belief Corbyn will supplant her in Downing Street. On the issue usually regarded as most important in determining voter behaviour management of the economy May and chancellor Philip Hammond are now trusted by more voters( 49%) to run the nations finances well than those who trusted David Cameron and George Osborne to do so ahead of the 2015 election( 42% ). Trust in Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell to run the economy well is at 15% lower than it was for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls ahead of the 2015 election( 21% ).

On almost every count, May wins. Some 49% of all voters now approve of the way she is running the country, against simply 18% who express acceptance for Corbyns leadership.

The only cause for concern in Tory circles is the growing sense that the Reactionary are heading for a comfortable victory at Labours expense. Tory strategists dread this might seduce some swimming voters to lose their panic of Corbyn and to choose other parties to ensure a more equal distribution of MPs in the Commons.

The Tories are trusted by almost three times as many voters( 38%) to handle Brexit discussions most effectively, compared with 13% for Labour. Even among Remain voters, there is support from many for the way May is handling Brexit. Among Remainers, 36% envision she is handling Brexit well, while 66% of Leave voters tell she is doing a good job. Corbyn thumps May when voters are asked who stays to their principles most: 47% tell Corbyn and 46% May. But 55% tell May is a strong president, against 17% for Corbyn.

James Crouch of Opinium mentioned: The inevitable focus on Brexit in the coming months seems likely to scupper Labours chances of making any significant headway, with such elections being fought on the topics that the Reactionary have strong contributes on.

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 2,003 UK adults aged 18+ from 19 to 20 April 2017. Results have been weighted to representative criteria .