The West’s Unilateral Cold War

The problem between Russia and the West is really a problem among Westerners themselves. If there is a new cold war, it is only because established elites have not come to terms with reality: the balance of military, political, economic, and moral power has shifted too far away from the West to be reversed.

MOSCOW – Rising tensions between the United Kingdom and Russia are but further proof that Russia and the West, according to no less an authority than Richard N. Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, have entered a “Cold War II”. I tend to disagree.

Yes, Russia’s relations with the United States, and now also with the UK, are worse than in the 1950s, and the chance of a direct conflict is higher than at any time since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Given the complexity of today’s strategic nuclear weapons and the systems designed to neutralize them, one cannot rule out the possibility that some actor on either side, or a third party, could provoke escalation.

Making matters worse, communication between US and Russian leaders is all but nonexistent, owing to the lack of trust on both sides. Among Americans, feelings toward Russia verge on something close to hatred, and many in Russia now regard Americans with ill-concealed disdain.

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Sergei Karaganov is Dean of the School of International Economics and Foreign Affairs at the National Research University Higher School of Economics in Moscow, and Honorary Chairman of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.

Unfortunately for Russia, it hasn't collapsed. The West remains as world's major cultural, political, economic and financial centre. Russia's power is incomparable with NATO's military power and influence all around the world. Our banking and financial system is entirely based on Amerian dollar, whose breakdown would definitely affect everyone.

The danger of nationalism as an ideology is it's "sweetness" for ideology consumers - regular people with limited critical thinking capabilities. It's a fundamental reason why Hitler was so successful to poison masses of free thinking people and Putin regime has not created anything new - they've studied history intently. I'm just shocked how predictable human nature is - doesn't matter that today's sources of information can be easily diversified (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) people are so keen to trust the news that fits their wishes and beliefs, that Putin's regime doesn't need to block internet or alternative TV broadcasting - it's enough to design the news that best fit nationalistic picture of Russia as a great nation and it's done.

Problem with author of this article is that he believes he is independent thinker, but the true is that this article is very much influenced by Putin's nationalistic propaganda (narrative that West is aiming hegemony over Russia and Russia has right to react by suppressing other nations interests). And unfortunately I do not believe in a happy end of this article as it is again built on Putin's narrative that West's hegemony over Russia creates misbalance for peaceful co-egsistence - the true is that Russia has military advantage it built quietly during last 15 years of Putin's ruling over at least Western Europe and it is a source of danger for this ColdWar II to turn HOT.

If we like to save peace, Western Europe should with great emergence restore military balance with Russia and only when done we can count on more constructive bilateral communication with Russia as it is today (authoritarian, corrupt, aggressive). Unfortunately it can not be done by "establishing more diplomatic, legislative, academic, and educational exchanges", because huge masses (as author of this article as well) of Russian population are already poisoned with nationalistic propaganda and West already lost the war for Russians' minds.

Looking back the history, if West will succeed re-establish military balance and escape military conflict, this ColdWord will last decades as todays Russia has adopted some capitalism freedom and it can self-sustain present regime much longer than Soviet Union did.

Of course it is naive to paint all American (Western) intentions as good, and all Russian motivations as evil. It's not hard to do an analysis showing that mis-guided American policies have destabilised the World far more than Russian actions in recent decades, and cost far more innocent lives. Neither must we overlook the terrible evils that were suffered by the Russian people in the 1990s when American advisors helped shape the worst economic reform plan in history. Over a ten year period male life expectancy fell by 7 years, and industrial output fell by 60% (If you don't know about this read the chapter in Joseph Stiglitz book "Globalisation and its Discontents" to see how one of the greatest opportunities in the 20th century was squandered by the Americans and looted by the Russian oligarchs).

These facts explain why it has been easy for Putin, like all populists, to blame the almost never-ending suffering of the Russian people on the West. But this is where the narrative breaks down. Putin is not working for the Russian people, but to consolidate his own hold on power, and maintain the ability for himself, and those he favours, to loot the Russian state. This looted wealth (equivalent to 60% of Russia's GDP according to Zucman) is secretly held offshore in the very Western economies that Putin claims to hate and despise so much.

At the heart of this issue is a failure of trust. Putin says one thing and does another. His rise to power has been built on deception, manipulaton, and exploitation of others. His policies reflect complete disregard for international law, human rights, and national sovereignty. As such he has pursued a path of disengagement and opposition to the major economic powers in the World, and consigned the Russian people to a bleak future. We know the World must achieve a zero carbon economy by 2050, but carbon fuels account for 25% of the Russian economy. Remove this and Russian GDP will fall to around the same level as Indonesia.

The contrast to the economic path of China out of communism could not be more dramatic. China has followed a careful policy of detente and engagement on its own terms with the West. As a result its economic power is growing so rapidly that it will soon surpass Russia in GDP per capita, and by 2050 its GDP is likely to be twice that of the USA in ppp terms. It is these policies of international engagement that will successfully counterbalance American hegemony in the 21st century, not Putin's aggresive ideas of foreign interference.

For now the Russian people remain hoodwinked into believing that Putin is "making Russia great again" and leading Russia in their best interests. Unfortunately they are just as deluded as those who thought Trump cared about ordinary working Americans. The only conclusion we can draw is those who have suffered great injustices are all too ready to believe politicians who tell them what they want to hear.

With WW1 came an end to many old Regimes and communism came up as an ideology replacing it. With the revolution of 1917 Russia fell under communist control. It developed into a centrally controlled economy and society with little freedom for the individual citizen. It thereby became isolated from the rest of the World. Around 1998 the Russian system collapsed. Then things began to go wrong. Russia because of it's long isolation had no experience with democracy, individual human rights and market economy.The West failed then to help Russia and other communist Nations to modernize and but even exploited their weakness at the time.Putin has done a tremendous job in restoring his vast country.You can disapprove of the oligarchs, the fake news, espionage, cyberwar, etc .Shocking is the revengeful poisening of spies. A tradition from the days of the Czars by which Russia hurts its reputation in the world.The bottom line however is that there are 3 countries / continents in the Northern Hemisphere with an awful lot of weapons and poor communications/relations.The best way to prevent these weapons from being used is to normalize relations.Looking at the situation from a strategic point of view it is hard to see why there are material reasons for conflict anyway and why trade is not being developed.I hope some people with wisdom and a strategic vision get together and put communications/relations on the right track.

while it is always lovely to hear one schooled in economics comment on social media, the truth is that no one in the US gave a whit about Russia prior to the hot mess that was the last presidential election.

I must have missed where Russia became a beacon of democracy and freedom? When was that again comrade? Before or after his 76.6% winning percentage? A man who promises to poison those who would serve poison, is not looking for peace.

You may be trying to sell the world the Brooklyn Bridge, but were not buying.

It is a bit absurd for Westerners to find a foreign hand behind every surprising political development like Brexit or Donald Trump. On the other hand, we're dealing with new technologies, like the internet, which have vastly outrun traditional political controls. And Russia's own history with its neighbors is anything but reassuring.

But talk -- as here -- about who's rising and who's falling isn't going to get us very far. We're in a new political and technological era. We need to work out the terms of any nation's interaction with any other, particularly through the internet. Then we can ask whether Russia (or China, or anyone else) merits special treatment.

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