Steve Phillips just made the assumption that Ichiro is going to get 3000 hits as an MLB player...it's not out of reach but it leans more to a reach than a lock. If he played until he was 40 he'd need to average 256 hits a year, 41- 217 hits, 42- 189 hits.

If he plays until 42 I could maybe see 3000 hits as an MLB player, but I still think it would be a reach since he won't be able to leg out as many singles. But, who knows, he's 33 now and still lightning fast and Kenny Lofton can still run at 39. It will be interesting to see how long he plays and see if he quasi-breaks Pete Rose's hit record. Doing that would be just about as hard as getting 3000.

1. Generally (all else being equal), "fast" players age better (less sharp decline) than "power" players. There was a great article on this on the Hardball times...I'd link but if you're sufficiently interested just go and search for it.

2. Ichiro keeps himself in better shape than anyone in baseball.

I think it's less of a stretch than you think. Barring injury, it's not a lock, but I say a greater than 50% chance.

History is definitely against him. Players over 40 just don't fair that well. Rose had 172 hits at age 41 and he is the only player in the last 60 years to have more than 170 hits after turning 40. Only Rose, Winfield, and Molitor have had more that 150 in that time span and they each only did so once. For Ichiro to have much of a shot he is probably going to need to be around 2500-2600 (about 1000 more hits) in the next 5 years and then hang around like Biggio did mainly to get the milestone. Certainly a possibility but trying to look 8-9 years down the road for a guy in his 30s is spotty.

Suzuki is in the final year of a four-year, $41 million contract and had vowed before the season to explore free agency, but reports surfaced the last two days that he is close to an extension with the Mariners for five years and nearly $100 million. He was coy after the game.

"You'll find out sometime," he said.

He continued his playful banter with the media – a horde that included about 200 Japanese reporters. Asked how many home runs he could accumulate if he tried to hit them all the time, he said: "If I was allowed to hit .220, I could probably hit 40."

lane_anasazi2 wrote:Thinking about how he's going to age, I'd mention a couple things:

1. Generally (all else being equal), "fast" players age better (less sharp decline) than "power" players. There was a great article on this on the Hardball times...I'd link but if you're sufficiently interested just go and search for it.

2. Ichiro keeps himself in better shape than anyone in baseball.

I think it's less of a stretch than you think. Barring injury, it's not a lock, but I say a greater than 50% chance.

I agree with this. He's certainly not in 33 year old shape right now. I certainly wouldn't say it's a lock, but it's a definite possibility.

Ichiro played 9 years in Japan...lets just say, he averaged 200 hits/year...

that 1800 for those 9 years...In his 6.5 years in the MLB, he has 1482...

So if he had played in the MLB his whole career, he'd be sitting at 3282...which means that assuming he played at least 5-7 more years at high level baseball...it would be very likely he would retire with the most hits ever.

Same thing with Griffey...if he didn't miss 410-430 games during his stint with the Reds...I figure Griffey would be approaching, or have surpassed 700 HR's by now.

Imagine the publicity surrounding the "chase for 756." If at age 37 Griffey can hit 23 in half a year...imagine what he could have done at full health from ages 31-36...it's just a shame