Category: Press Releases

Despite the claims of Brexit and the debate on triggering Article 50, it is impossible to start this commentary anywhere other than in Washington where, on January 20th, Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States.

It is remarkably difficult to find a news outlet that has a neutral view of ‘the Donald:’ however, we’ll do our best in this commentary to stick to the facts and let you form your own opinions…

So far the new President is looking to make good on his pledge of “only America first:” he’s pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and indicated that he’ll be building a wall along the US/Mexico border – but he has graciously accepted Theresa May’s invitation to visit the UK.

The pro-business agenda of the new administration briefly saw the Dow Jones index break through the 20,000 barrier in January, before it slipped back later in the month. Most of the stock markets we cover in this commentary moved very little in January, but there were strong performances from both Brazil, last year’s star performer and up 7% in the month, and Hong Kong, which rose by 6%. There were perhaps intimations of a difficult year ahead for our old friend, Greece, with the Athens market down by 5% in the opening month of 2017.

Away from stock markets, the World Bank offered some good(ish) news to start the year, forecasting a modest recovery in global economic growth. It is expecting growth of 2.7% this year (compared to last year’s 2.3%) driven mainly by improvements in emerging markets and developing economies.

UK

The year got off to a good start for the UK manufacturing sector, with figures for December confirming that activity in the sector had reached a 2½ year high. The Purchasing Managers’ Index was up to 56.1 from 53.6 in the previous month, with any figure higher than 50 indicating expansion.

There was also strong growth in the service sector, which grew at its strongest pace for 17 months, and the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reported that 2016 had seen UK car sales hit an all-time high, with 2.69m vehicles sold thanks to “very strong” consumer demand.

There was also good news for the housing market, with the number of first time buyers at a ten year high despite the average price of a house in the UK going through £200,000 for the first time – the Halifax recoding the figure as £205,170.

Last in the ‘good news’ column was the IMF upgrading its forecast for UK growth to 1.5% for the coming year (up from 1.1% in October) as it said the economy had “held up better than expected” after Brexit. Growth in GDP for the fourth quarter of 2016 was confirmed at 0.6% and unemployment also fell by 52,000 to 1.6m.

Less welcome was the news that household debt on loans and credit cards has returned to pre-crash levels, with the average UK household now owing £13,000. UK fuel prices also reached an 18 month high as inflation jumped to 1.6% in December from 1.2% in November.

There was mixed news from the UK’s retailers regarding the busy Christmas period. Next warned of disappointing sales, but several food retailers – notably Morrisons and Sainsbury’s – reported better than expected figures over the holiday period. As always though, the irreversible trend away from the high street and towards the internet continued.

What did the FTSE 100 index of leading shares make of all the news? In the event, ‘not much’ was the answer. Despite going through 7,200 at one point and breaking the record for the number of consecutive days where it rose, the index ended the month down slightly. It finished December 2016 at 7,143 and closed January down 44 points – or 0.6% – at 7,099.

Europe

Most of January’s news in Europe seemed to concern the car industry. BMW bravely announced its $1bn commitment to a new plant in Mexico, despite warnings from the new administration in the US. As we’ll see below, many firms are planning to invest in the US and/or move production back.

So potential problems for BMW and real problems for VW as it entered a guilty plea in the US over ‘deiselgate’ and agreed a $4.3bn settlement with the authorities over the emissions scandal. Despite these woes, VW has now become the world’s largest car manufacturer, overtaking Toyota which sold 10.175m vehicles in 2016, compared to VW’s 10.31m.

There was a grim prediction for the Euro, as Professor Ted Malloch, tipped to be Donald Trump’s ambassador to the EU, said the single currency “could collapse” in the next 18 months. Not surprisingly, Angela Merkel has taken exactly the opposite view – but with elections due in Holland, France and Germany, 2017 promises to be a turbulent year for Europe.

There was no such turbulence on the major European stock markets. The German DAX index was virtually unchanged in January, closing at 11,535, while the French index drifted back 2% to end the month at 4,754.

US

One of Donald Trump’s key pledges on the campaign trail was his commitment to pull the US out of the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership, the 12 nation trade deal that was a key part of his predecessor’s Asia policy. Although this was largely symbolic (as the deal had not been ratified by the US Congress) it was a clear indication of his determination to push through election promises.

Executives at Ford were clearly aware of which way the wind was blowing as they cancelled plans to move to Mexico and instead announced a $700m expansion of their plant at Flat Rock in Michigan. And having been threatened with an import tax early in the month, Toyota ended January by announcing plans to invest $10bn in the US over the next five years.

Clearly major investments like this will not make an immediate difference to the US economy, and in January the news was not good. Jobs growth had slowed to 156,000 in December, against 204,000 in November and general estimates of 175,000, whilst growth in the fourth quarter was 1.9%, lower than the 2.2% which economists had been predicting.

Meanwhile, the new President was announcing his fabled wall along the US/Mexico border and a crackdown on immigration, as well as continuing to promise much lower taxes for both the middle classes and business. Wall Street has generally liked what it’s heard from Trump and his team: the Dow Jones index closed October 2016 (just before the election) at 18,142 and has risen by 9.5% since then, finishing January at 19,864. The index did briefly go through the 20,000 barrier at one point, but then fell back to settle for just a 1% rise in the month.

Far East

January saw Xi Jinping become the first Chinese leader to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos. This time last year his government was setting a target of 6.7% for GDP growth in 2016 – and what do you know? Official figures released in January showed that the economy grew by 6.7% in 2016, slightly down on the official figure of 6.9% recorded a year earlier and marking the slowest annual growth since 1990.

I say ‘official figures’ because there has been increasing scepticism over China’s growth figures and in January Chen Qiufa, the governor of Liaoning, said that his province had been “involved in large-scale financial deception” between 2011 and 2014 and that economic data had been doctored.

As Mr Chen may find out, that may not have been the greatest career move in the world. Unsurprisingly, the director of China’s National Bureau of Statistics declared the national data was “truthful and reliable.”

‘Reliable’ was certainly not a word that could be applied to Samsung’s Note 7: the phone’s habit of suddenly exploding and/or bursting into a flames gave a lot of YouTube viewers a lot of entertainment in 2016. Despite having to recall 2.5m handsets, however, Samsung still recorded a 50% rise in profits in the final quarter of 2016, up to 9.2 trillion won (around £5.8bn).

Meanwhile, Ant Financial, the digital payments arm of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, was spending $800m to buy the US based MoneyGram. The deal will need regulatory approval from the US Committee on Foreign Investment, so it will be interesting to see what approach the new administration takes.

On the stock markets the Chinese Shanghai Composite had a steady start to the year, rising 2% in January to 3,159. As mentioned above, the Hong Kong market had an excellent month, rising 6% to 23,361. The South Korean market was also up, rising 2% to end January at 2,068, while Japan’s Nikkei Dow index was virtually unchanged, closing the month at 19,041.

Emerging Markets

As we’ve noted above, Brazil took the prize for ‘best performance in 2016’ among the markets we cover in this commentary with a rise of 39%. It made a storming start to 2017 as well, with the stock market rising a further 7% to 64,671. But despite the good performance of the stock market, we spent much of last year chronicling the ever-increasing losses at Petrobras, the state oil producer.

Petrobras is at the centre of a massive corruption probe in Brazil, with dozens of politicians having been arrested for taking bribes to grant lucrative contracts to private companies who then massively overcharged Petrobras. In January, Teori Zavascki, the judge overseeing the corruption probe was killed in a light aircraft crash – and the inevitable conspiracy theories were quick to surface. It’s another problem for President Michel Temer to wrestle with as he tries to keep the economy on track and eradicate the seemingly endemic corruption.

India – now the world’s fastest growing major economy – also enjoyed a good start to the year with the stock market rising 4% to 27,656. January was more subdued in Russia, however, where the market slipped back 1% close at 2,217.

And finally

January always brings us the World Economic Forum: the annual gathering of the great and the good at Davos in Switzerland. This meeting of politicians, business leaders and economists – sprinkled with a dash of celebrity – is supposed to chart a course for the world economy. Last year you may remember that delegates listened to Leonardo di Caprio rail against the excesses of corporate greed and then went off to reflect on the speech over £290 bottles of Cheval Blanc.

No such greed was reported this year – although one US TV reporter did complain that the price of a Davos hot dog had now reached $40. Clearly, he isn’t among the world’s super-rich who will have been cheered by news that sales of that ‘must have,’ the super-yacht, are back to pre-financial crisis levels. Just to give you something to aim at for the year, a super-yacht that is 100 metres long with a top speed of 25 knots and 50 crew will cost $275m – plus a $1m a year on maintenance and $1.4m on crew salaries.

If you can’t quite manage that, maybe the answer is to take advantage of McDonald’s all day breakfast. Launched with a fanfare as part of the grand plan to revitalise the business, the all-day breakfast has turned out to be a fine example of the Law of Unintended Consequences. Rather than draw new people in, existing customers have simply switched from burgers to breakfast, meaning that fourth quarter revenue for McDonald’s actually fell by 1.3%.

So no ticket to Davos and no super-yacht for the bright spark in charge of that initiative…

With only a few months left until the end of the financial year, it’s a good time to start thinking about your Year End (if this aligns with the financial year) and ensuring you have everything in order in good time to avoid complications or penalties. It can be a daunting task for both first-time accountants and those with plenty of experience, and certainly not something you want to leave until the last minute. With that in mind, here are five tips for ensuring you’re ahead of the game when it comes to preparing for your Year End:

Ensure your expenses are in order – Making sure you claim every legitimate business expense will ensure your company won’t pay more Corporation Tax than necessary. According to HMRC, anything that has been purchased “wholly and exclusively” for business use can be claimed as a business expense, so anything purchased for your business can almost certainly be used to reduce your company’s tax bill.

Chase up any unpaid invoices – You want your Year End to be accurate, so any outstanding debts need to be chased up and paid. This will ensure you can correctly document the money in your company’s bank account and allow you to update the records in your accounting software with total accuracy.

Don’t forget your VAT Returns – Whilst they’re not usually considered part of your Year End, VAT Returns usually happen at the same time. If your company is VAT Registered, make sure you file your VAT at the same time as your Year End to avoid any issues.

Start thinking about your Annual Return – As your Annual Return is due 28 days after the start of your new company year, it’s a good idea to make a start on it as you work on your Year End. Your Annual Return summarises your company’s details, including the details of any directors and shareholders, as well as the trading activity and registered address.

Have a look at your suppliers – An annual review of your service providers will ensure you’re not spending too much or paying for services you no longer need. Doing it at the same time as your Year End keeps things neat and tidy too, allowing you to start afresh with any new suppliers at the beginning of a new financial year.

A recent survey has found that two thirds of medium enterprise business owners have experienced problems with cash flow due to a lack of working capital in the last two years, thanks to invoices not being paid within their debtor period. The survey of 500 UK business owners revealed that 61% of invoices issued by SMEs remained unpaid within the debtor day period. Alarmingly, 16% of those invoices were still unpaid after 90 days, with 7% still not paid after six months.

Of the businesses surveyed, 70% stated that they depend on being paid promptly in order to avoid becoming strained by a shortage of working capital. What businesses struggled with the most due to limited cash flow was paying suppliers, with over two in five (41%) of respondents citing this as an issue. Of the other common issues caused by cash flow shortages, 30% said they failed to meet debt repayments, 29% were unable to purchase inventory, nearly a quarter (24%) said they had struggled to pay staff and 18% had missed out on contracts.

The emotional impact of invoice non-payment was also revealed, with 28% of respondents stating that they had been caused considerable stress and anxiety by cash flow problems, with 19% admitting that their frustration had led to anger and 10% experiencing fears that their business would go bust.

“Our research shows that most small firms recognise the damage caused by cashflow problems”, says a statement from the financial experts who conducted the survey, “but that doesn’t guarantee their immunity. The worst case scenario is insolvency but in our experience, slow paying invoices are often to blame. As working capital and cashflow are by their very nature dynamic, most traditional systems have failed to keep pace over the last few years”.

Whilst chasing the debts of your company might not be your favourite way to spend time, ensuring that as many of your invoices as possible are paid promptly will ensure you avoid both the financial and emotional strain outstanding debts can clearly cause. Having a robust and efficient system of collecting debts will ensure that any outstanding debts are handled, as well as creating strong relationships with suppliers, customers and contractors so that invoices are rarely left outstanding in the first place.

November brought us the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement and Spending Review in the UK – and rather more tragic events abroad. Friday November 13th saw the massacre in Paris, which was followed by an escalation in the bombing of ISIS in Syria.

World stock markets inevitably fell in the wake of the Paris attacks, but overall it was a mixed month for the major world markets. For once in 2015 there were no dramatic movements, either up or down. Overall economic activity continues to be depressed, largely due to the continuing weaker demand from China. One indication of the weaker demand is the current record oil glut, which currently stands at some 3bn barrels: this seems likely to keep oil prices low well into next year.

UK

The Chancellor delivered his Autumn Statement on November 25th: this year it also included the Government’s Spending Review, setting out the plans for spending until 2020. As expected, George Osborne confirmed his determination to deliver a surplus by the end of this parliament – and several Government departments suffered significant cuts to their budgets. There were however, no cuts to tax credits. The Chancellor had been expected to ‘trim’ the plans which had been so heavily defeated in the House of Lords: instead he performed a complete U-turn in a speech some commentators saw as ‘the end of austerity’.

In the wider economy the month had started with good news for UK manufacturing, the figures for October suggesting the sector had enjoyed its best month for more than a year. The Purchasing Managers’ Index was up significantly (from 51.8 in September to 55.5) which indicates increased confidence. Output also rose by 0.8%.

There was also good news on jobs. UK unemployment fell to a seven year low of 5.3% in the three months to September, whilst the number of people in work rose to 31.21m – 177,000 more than the April to June quarter and an increase of 419,000 on the same period last year.

UK inflation remained negative at -0.1% in October, and the Bank of England pushed the long awaited increase in interest rates even further into the long grass. The Bank said that the outlook for global growth had weakened and this had ‘depressed the risk of inflation.’ Hence no rate rises until the second quarter of 2016 – and possibly even later.

The month ended with ‘Black Friday’ – the supposed retail bonanza which would set the tills ringing up and down the national high street. Police forces warned retailers to make sure they had enough staff – obviously including security staff – to handle the expected surge of rampant bargain hunters. In the event the burly men with walkie-talkies spent the day twiddling their thumbs as the shoppers staggered out of bed and straight to their laptops to shop online. “Shoppers not prepared to stand in line,” said the BBC, reporting the remarkably obvious.

Little wonder that M&S reported sales and profits down for the six months to September, whilst Tesco boss Dave Lewis warned retailers faced a “lethal cocktail” of falling demand and higher costs.

Rather more cheerful were the good people of Wolverhampton as Jaguar Land Rover announced plans to double the size of its site near the town and hire hundreds of new workers, as it invested £450m into its engine manufacturing centre.

How was all this reflected on the stock market? With barely a whimper is the answer. The FTSE-100 index of leading shares started November at 6,361 and ended the month precisely five points lower at 6,356 – still 3% lower than the level at which it started the year.

Europe

Obviously the events in Paris dominated the European news agenda in November, and it was no surprise when a survey conducted after the attacks suggested they would have a negative impact on the French economy.

There were conflicting views of the wider European economy, as the EU suggested that the Eurozone was set for “a modest recovery” over the next two years, with growth of 1.9% this year, 2.0% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017.

However, the left-leaning think tank The Institute for Public Policy Research suggested that high levels of unemployment and ‘under employment’ risked becoming entrenched unless there was an increase in productivity.

There was certainly no increase in productivity in Germany, as the economy slowed in the third quarter of the year. It grew by 0.3% in the July to September period, compared to 0.4% for the previous quarter. Again, the slowdown in China is largely to blame for this, as German imports grew by more than exports (although the country still recorded a €22.9bn trade surplus for September, up from €21.6bn a year previously).

The French economy also grew by 0.3% on the third quarter – although this marked an increase from the zero growth recorded in the second quarter.

In individual company news we saw the least surprising headline of the year, the BBC reporting that, ‘VW sales fall on emissions scandal’.

Despite the mixed news on the economy the German stock market enjoyed a good month in November, rising by 5% to close at 11,382. The French market was up just 1% to 4,958. Down among the economic also-rans Greece secured a deal to release the latest tranche of its bailout cash – €2bn in loans and up to €10bn of support for its banks – but still saw its stock market fall another 9% in the month to 635.

US

No country produces more conflicting and confusing economic data than the US. November was no exception as the world’s biggest economy (for now) continued to move away from its traditional industries.

In direct contrast to the UK, the US reported gloomy news for the manufacturing sector, which grew at its slowest pace for more than two years in October. The Institute for Supply Management recorded a fourth consecutive month of declining factory activity. Blame was laid firmly at the door of the strong US dollar, which had ‘hurt exports and caused a number of job losses across the country.’

No such gloom at Facebook, which reported a big jump in third quarter profits on the back of increased advertising sales, or for the owners of the ever-popular Candy Crush. The company which makes it, King Digital Entertainment, was bought by US game company Activision Blizzard (World of Warcraft, Call of Duty) in a deal worth $5.9bn. Welcome to the new economy, ladies and gentlemen.

There was, though, one significant piece of news from the old economy as pharmaceutical giant Pfizer bought botox-maker Allergan for $160bn in a major deal for the industry.

Despite the bad news from manufacturing, there was good news for US jobs as the economy added 271,000 jobs in October – well ahead of the 185,000 economists had forecast. This increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would finally raise interest rates in the near future.

The news on jobs didn’t, however, translate into a boom for US retail: the figures for October were disappointing, stoking fears that lower retail spending in the fourth quarter could hold back economic growth – and early indications are that US consumers also went online for their Black Friday shopping, forsaking the mall for their living rooms.

Wall Street reacted to all this news with a shrug. The Dow Jones Index had opened November at 17,664: it closed the month at 17,721 for a rise of just 57 points.

Far East

Let’s start with the obvious news: Chinese manufacturing contracted for the third month in a row, and there seems little sign of an upturn any time soon.
There was better retail news as Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba smashed all records for ‘Singles’ Day’ (held every year on 11th November) as sales increased 60% from last year to $14.3bn. In contrast the sales for ‘Cyber Monday’ in the US were just $1.35bn.

However, these good retail figures shouldn’t be taken as proof that the Chinese economy is recovering. The Japanese economy certainly isn’t, as figures confirmed that it had contracted for the second quarter in succession – thereby pushing the country officially into recession.

Despite this the Japanese stock market has continued to perform well, and shares reached a 3 month high in November. The market finally closed the month at 19,747 – up 3% in the month and 13% since the start of the year.

The Chinese market fared less well, with the Shanghai Composite rising just 2% to close at 3,445. Worryingly, the market dropped 5% in one day near the end of the month as several brokerage firms came under investigation for possibly breaking market rules. China’s biggest brokerage, Citic, apparently has an ‘error’ in its figures of $166bn. Many of us in business have known the frustration of adding up a column of figures and finding that you’re a few pence or a few pounds out. $166bn is a rather different matter…

The other two major markets in the Far East that we report on both fell in November. Hong Kong was down by 3% to 21,996 whilst the market in South Korea declined by 2%, to end the month at 1,992.

Emerging Markets

It was a mixed month for the major emerging markets. Both India and Brazil saw their markets fall by 2% during November, to 26,146 and to 45,120 respectively. Russia, by contrast, enjoyed a good month with the stock market there rising by 3% to close at 1,771.

In other news from emerging markets around the world, Argentina has a new government, with President Mauricio Macri committed to a conservative agenda of government cuts and welfare reform.

Meanwhile Morocco announced a giant solar power project to bring electricity to 1m people. The solar thermal plant at Ouarzazate will ultimately supply power for 20 hours a day, as part of Morocco’s pledge to get 42% of its electricity generation from renewables by 2020. The UK, in contrast, is committed to just 30% by the same date. Then again, there is rather more sunshine in Morocco than in the UK…

And finally…

November was a great month for the ‘and finally’ section of this Bulletin. Chinese billionaire Liu Yiqian bought Modigliani’s ‘Reclining Nude’ painting for the small matter of $170m and popped the purchase on his Amex card, thereby earning enough air miles to secure free first class travel for the rest of his life.

Even more exciting though was the news that the US Government finally looks ready to relax its decades-old ban on the import of haggis. The delicacy could be back on the menu in the US by 2017, food containing sheep lungs – a key ingredient in haggis – having been banned since 1971.

We always try and end the Bulletin on a cheerful note – so for those of you who like nothing better than a tasty sheep’s lung, Burns’ Night will be on Monday January 25th.

…By which time we hope you will have had an enjoyable Christmas and New Year. Our very best wishes for the festive season, and our next bulletin will be with you in the first week of January.

The Car – Sole traders and business partners may claim a proportion of their car’s running costs, including petrol, insurance, road tax, repairs and maintenance, based on their annual business mileage. Sadly, your regular home to work travel doesn’t count as ‘business use’ for this purpose. On top of all the running costs, you can also claim capital allowances on the car.For a new car, you get a full year’s allowance in the year of purchase, even if you buy it on the very last day of your accounting period. You will usually also get a balancing allowance when you sell your old car. So changing your car regularly makes good sense for tax purposes! All your capital allowances must be restricted to your ‘business use’ proportion in the same way as your running costs.

Your Home – The owners of most small businesses will work from home at least occasionally, even if just to do the paperwork sometimes. In these cases, the taxpayer may claim an appropriate proportion of his or her household bills as a business expense including heating and lighting costs and council tax. Here the proportion is generally based on the number of rooms in the house, excluding bathrooms, toilets, kitchens and hallways.

Your Family – There is a way to claim deductions for the support which your family gives to your business. If any member of the family does any work for your business, you may pay them an appropriate salary and claim it as a business expense. Be imaginative – if your wife takes business calls on your house phone then she’s working for the business!
If the recipient has no other income, some or all of the salary will be tax free thanks to the income tax personal allowance and national insurance threshold.

Making The Most Of Travel and Subsistence – When you’re away on business, your travel and subsistence costs are fully allowable and it’s none of the Revenue’s business how much you want to spend. As a result, having a slap up meal while you’re away on business will often end up costing you only half as much as the same meal at home. So why not treat yourself? The Government’s sharing the bill!

Childcare Costs – There are now some very generous tax reliefs for childcare costs. For example, if you run a crèche at your premises which is available to all employees’ children, the cost will be tax deductible and there will be no taxable Benefit in Kind for you if your own children use it.

Telephones – Sole traders and partnerships can claim the cost of business calls on home phones and mobiles. Line rental can also be claimed where it is purely a business line. Directors/shareholders may claim reimbursement for the cost of business calls made from home phones. Your company can also buy you a mobile phone without any taxable Benefit in Kind arising.

Loans and Overdrafts – Generally speaking, interest costs which you incur personally are not usually allowable, whereas interest on overdrawn business accounts and loans is deductible. The best strategy from a tax standpoint therefore, is to borrow within the business rather than personally.

Pension Contributions – As long as you stick within the relevant contribution limits, you should be able to get tax relief for pension contributions which you either make personally, as a sole trader or partner, or which your company makes on your behalf. This will extend to contributions for any family members working in your business.

Decorating the Office – The cost of decorating your business premises will be allowable. This could extend to items such as paintings and antiques which you use to decorate areas which will be seen by customers and the general public. You will need to make a business case for the expenditure, and larger items will only attract relief under the capital allowances system but, nevertheless, the scope exists for some significant deductions to be claimed.

Staff Parties – The cost of staff parties and any other form of staff entertaining is usually deductible. Typically, this will cover the Xmas party or annual dinner. As long as the annual cost of any staff functions is kept under £150 a head, there will be no taxable Benefit in Kind for the employees either. This allowance can be used to exempt one or more functions each year, the total cost of which does not exceed £150 per head.

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