San Francisco 49ers: How Will Colin Kaepernick Develop in 2014?

How good will Colin Kaepernick be next season? There’s no single player who will impact the fate of the 2014 San Francisco 49ers more than their newly extended quarterback, so figuring out what to expect from him is crucial to predicting how the team will perform this upcoming season.

Considering Kaepernick only has 23 starts under his belt, there’s a lot of potential variance in what we could possibly expect from him next season. At the high end, he is as low a 22-1 pick to win the league MVP, per Odds Checker.

On the other end of the spectrum, it’s true that Kaepernick’s numbers dropped off last season, thanks in large part to injuries to his offensive weapons. He has not yet developed into the sort of quarterback who can succeed regardless of the talent around him. He’s been referred to as a one-read, “remedial” quarterback by some, including ESPN’s Trent Dilfer. He clearly has a step or two more to take as a passer before becoming an elite quarterback.

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Will the 49ers pass more in 2014?

The situation is set up for some improvement in 2014. He’ll likely have a full year of a healthy Michael Crabtree, along with the addition of Stevie Johnson to augment his receiving corps. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has hinted that the team will pass more, indicating a larger role in the offense for Kaepernick. He’ll also have another full season of experience under his belt, as well as more offseason practice and workouts.

One way to try to estimate how much improvement Kaepernick will make is by looking at historical players who had similar seasons to his 2013 year and seeing how they improved the next season. On the macro scale, similar quarterbacks tend to develop in the same ways. While there are always outliers on the individual level, knowing how similar players have developed can give us a baseline for Kaepernick’s odds.

To do so, I went back to 1990 and looked at quarterbacks between the ages of 24 and 28. I then used a modified version of Football Outsiders’ similarity scores to figure out which quarterbacks had the most similar seasons to Kaepernick, adjusting the numbers to suit his particular play style. This helps us toss out unrealistic comparisons; it’s just as unhelpful to compare Kaepernick to Peyton Manning as it is to compare him to Blaine Gabbert.

Here are the 16 seasons that ended up the most similar to Kaepernick’s 2013 season:

Colin Kaepernick's Comparables

Name

Year

Cmp

Att

Cmp%

Yds

TD

INT

Rush Att

Rush Yds

TD

C. Kaepernick

2013

243

416

58.4%

3,197

21

8

92

524

4

Jay Cutler

2010

261

432

60.4%

3,274

23

16

50

232

1

Steve McNair

2001

264

431

61.3%

3,350

21

12

75

414

5

Mark Brunell

1997

264

435

60.7%

3,281

18

7

48

257

2

Roethlisberger

2008

281

469

59.9%

3,301

17

15

34

101

2

Cunningham

1990

271

465

58.3%

3,466

30

13

118

942

5

Russell Wilson

2012

252

393

64.1%

3,118

26

10

94

489

4

D. McNabb

2003

275

478

57.5%

3,216

16

11

71

335

3

David Carr

2004

285

466

61.2%

3,531

16

14

73

299

0

D. McNabb

2001

285

493

57.8%

3,233

25

12

82

482

2

Alex Smith

2011

274

445

61.4%

3,144

17

5

52

179

2

D. Culpepper

2003

295

454

65.0%

3,479

25

11

73

422

4

S. Humphries

1992

263

454

57.9%

3,356

16

18

28

79

4

Steve McNair

1998

289

492

58.7%

3,228

15

10

77

559

4

Philip Rivers

2006

284

460

61.7%

3,388

22

9

48

49

0

Philip Rivers

2007

277

460

60.2%

3,152

21

15

29

33

1

Chris Miller

1991

220

413

53.3%

3,103

26

18

32

229

0

Average

NA

271

453

59.8%

3,289

21

12

62

320

2

Pro Football Reference

Even with the adjustments, it’s hard to find players who rush quite as much as Kaepernick does, because he’s on the forefront of a new style of quarterback play—only Randall Cunningham and Russell Wilson had more attempts than Kaepernick’s 92. On a per-pass and per-rush basis, however, these players all fall fairly close to Kaepernick’s numbers last year.

All in all, however, it’s not a bad list of comparables. Only David Carr and Stan Humphries failed to make the Pro Bowl in their careers. Steve McNair was the NFL MVP in 2003, and Randall Cunningham was the first-team All Pro quarterback in 1998. You’re not seeing any sure-fire Hall of Famers on the list, but Cunningham, McNair, Roethlisberger, Brunell, McNabb and Rivers have all had enviable careers.

How did the players develop the year after? There are a couple of asterisks to look at before showing those numbers:

While injuries can and do happen, it’s not really accurate to say that Kaepernick has a 45 percent chance of missing time due to injuries, nor is it fair to take the injury-depleted statistics of those seven seasons and using them to compare.

That leaves us with nine Year N+1 seasons untouched that we can use for comparison. I’ll also look at the next fully healthy season for the other seven quarterbacks as well, under the more flawed assumption that they would have picked up where they left off the year afterward.

Year N+1 Seasons

Name

Year

Cmp

Att

Cmp%

Yds

TD

INT

Rush Att

Rush Yds

TD

D. Culpepper

2004

379

548

69.2%

4,717

39

11

88

406

2

Roethlisberger

2009

312

478

66.6%

4,328

26

12

40

82

2

Philip Rivers

2008

312

478

65.3%

4,009

34

11

31

84

0

D. McNabb

2004

300

469

64.0%

3,875

31

8

41

220

3

Steve McNair

2002

301

492

61.2%

3,387

22

15

82

440

3

Russell Wilson

2013

257

407

63.1%

3,357

26

9

96

539

1

Philip Rivers

2007

277

460

60.2%

3,152

21

15

29

33

1

Mark Brunell

1998

208

354

58.8%

2,601

20

9

49

192

0

David Carr

2005

256

423

60.5%

2,488

14

11

56

308

1

Average

NA

292

460

63.5%

3,546

26

11

57

256

1

Alex Smith

2013

308

508

60.6%

3,313

23

7

76

431

1

D. McNabb

2003

275

478

57.5%

3,216

16

11

71

335

3

S. Humphries

1994

264

453

58.3%

3,033

17

12

19

19

0

Jay Cutler

2012

255

434

58.5%

3,033

19

14

41

233

0

Steve McNair

2000

248

396

62.6%

2,847

15

13

72

403

0

Cunningham

1992

233

384

60.7%

2,775

19

11

85

549

5

Chris Miller

1995

232

405

57.3%

2,623

18

15

22

67

0

Average

NA

278

450

61.8%

3,308

23

12

56

271

1

Pro Football Reference

The best-case scenario here is pretty clear. Daunte Culpepper took a huge step forward in 2004, leading the league in both completions and yards. It’s a season entirely outside of his career norms—an outlier among outliers.

Even without Culpepper’s crazy year, however, there are quite a few great seasons here. Roethlisberger and Rivers both trumped 4,000 yards, though honestly, Roethlisberger’s year isn’t as good as it appears, thanks to the sheer volume he had to put up those numbers.

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Having a year like Russell Wilson's would be just fine for Kaepernick.

McNabb, McNair and Wilson also put up great years out of this sample set. I think any of those stat lines would be accepted as a big step forward for Kaepernick in the 2014 season. All three could use their legs, much like Kaepernick does. More importantly, all had their completion percentage up above 60 percent. McNabb and Wilson had more than eight yards per attempt, as well, which would represent a slight step up for Kaepernick’s numbers. That sort of season is probably what 49ers fans should hope for, in terms of development.

Most of the bad seasons came a year after suffering an injury, but the worst fully healthy season there belongs to David Carr. It’s very rarely a good thing when he shows up on your list of comparable players.

However, Kaepernick has an advantage Carr didn’t have in Houston—a functioning offensive line. In 2005, Carr was sacked 68 times—that’s more than four sacks every game. By comparison, Kaepernick was sacked 39 times last season, which is just over half as much. Having players like Joe Staley and Mike Iupati keeping defenders at bay can do nothing but help a quarterback’s development.

So, with all this data, what sort of season are we expecting from Kaepernick in 2014?

PHIL COALE/Associated Press

Kaepernick's numbers are very similar to Steve McNair's.

I think the best case to look at, when all is said and done, is Steve McNair's development. Like Kaepernick, McNair didn’t get a full season of starting experience until his third year in the league, and he never had a ton of gross yardage. Instead, McNair found ways to beat people with both his arm and his legs. His arm matured as he got more experience in the NFL, balancing out his contributions on the ground and through the air.

I think we’ll see Kaepernick’s rush totals take a step back in 2014, while his passing numbers take a corresponding step forward. Just looking at the quarterbacks who have had similar seasons in the past 15 years, it would be an upset if Kaepernick didn’t similarly improve entering his fourth year in the league.

My projections? If I had to guess now, I’d say Kaepernick’s stat line might look something like this:

Colin Kaepernick Prediction

Year

Cmp

Att

Cmp%

Yds

TD

INT

Rush Att

Rush Yds

TD

2013

243

416

58.4%

3,197

21

8

92

524

4

2014

260

420

61.9%

3,400

26

7

85

420

2

Pro-Football-Reference

Hoping for a burst into the 4,000-yard range seems a little naive, considering that this is still primarily a running team. We’d be talking about adding something like five extra passes every game to San Francisco’s total, and a 20 percent increase in pass attempts seems unrealistic. Instead, look for Kaepernick to take a step forward, rather than a huge leap, as he continues his development.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.