Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (23.11-27.11)

Friday consequence of Mario Draghi at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, was strong depreciation of the euro against the dollar. At the end of the week for one euro paid 1.0646 dollar. Mario Draghi during his speech said that the ECB is ready for further action, in order to stimulate inflation in the euro zone. In practice, this means that during the December meeting of the ECB will present new solutions stimulus. Mario Draghi's statement highlights the divergent expectations of monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed.

Summing up last week, not to mention the middle minutes of the FOMC meeting. Notes from the minutes confirmed market expectations that the Federal Reserve is on track towards launching a series of increases in interest rates at the December meeting.
At the moment, the chances of a December rate hike, are valued by the market at 73.6%.

In the coming week we will see a number of indicators PMI manufacturing and services in Germany, France and across the euro area. You will then be presented readings of GDP for Germany and the USA. It will also pay attention to the Ifo business sentiment index in Germany and the consumer confidence index by the Conference Board. In the middle of the week we will know the basic order of fixed assets, the sale of new real estate and personal expenses. Extremely Wednesday (due to Thursday's Thanksgiving), we will see applications for unemployment benefits in the US.

The outlook for EUR / USD:Last week we witnessed the exit attacking the demand side. Local correction reached the level of 1.0763, from which dynamically bounced to the south.
In my opinion, the currency pair should continue to follow toward support at 1.0617 (minimum of 18 of November). If you supply will lead to fractures, w / w level, it will open the way to a much lower price levels. For me personally aim for the supply side should be this year's lows at 1.0520 and 1.0460 levels. What this suggests? The ever-increasing expectations of the ECB, which will be forced to weaken the single currency. On the other hand, we have a Fed that is close to the start of a series of increases in interest rates.

After reaching the objectives set by me we should see activation of the demand side, which should lead to a fair hearing aids and exit the adjustment.