Hurricane MARIA (Text)

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HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005
THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF MARIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING AS REVEALED IN CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A 03/2333Z SSMI OVERPASS AND A 04/0152Z AMSU OVERPASS BOTH
INDICATED NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL FEATURES...AND THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEPTH AND ORGANIZATION
SINCE THEN...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER. A T4.0/65
SATELLITE ESTIMATE WAS PROVIDED BY BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ODT
VALUES RANGE BETWEEN T4.3 TO T4.5. THEREFORE...MARIA HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/12. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 34N LATITUDE.
AFTER MARIA REACHES THE RIDGE AXIS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...GRADUAL
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...MORE RAPID MOTION IS FORECAST AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST
AND ACCELERATES MARIA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND MARIA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND OVER SSTS
OF AT LEAST 28C FOR THE NEXT 36-42 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SOME MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SMALL INNER CORE WIND FIELD AND EYE NOTED IN
MICROWAVE DATA...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MARIA REACHING 90 KT.
BY 48 HOURS...THOUGH...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER STEADILY
COOLER WATER WHILE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY WEAKENING. BY 96
HOURS...MUCH COOLER WATER AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 28.0N 55.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 55.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 31.6N 56.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 33.4N 56.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 35.2N 55.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 38.7N 51.8W 65 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 41.0N 47.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/0600Z 42.5N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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