NCAA Tournament: Best bets for the third round

Had intended to get the third-round picks posted sooner, but the lines for many Sunday games weren’t up until this morning …

I started well in the second round, hitting all three Thursday picks. But Colorado and Pacific failed to cover — Pacific failed to show, basically — on Friday. Unfortunate way for Bob Thomason’s career to end.

(Speaking of unfortunate ends: UCLA’s performance against Minnesota. I’ll have much more on Ben Howland’s status and the Bruins coaching search, if it comes to that, in coming days.

No. 6 Butler (plus-2.5) vs. No. 3 Marquette (Saturday in Lexington): Marquette is over-seeded based on its talent. Butler is under-seeded based on its coaching. Marquette was lucky to escape the second round. Butler looked impressive in dispatching Bucknell. I was surprised the line started with the Bulldogs getting 2.5, and I’m stunned it has only come down a half point. Butler covers, and wins outright. Pick: Butler.

No. 12 Cal vs. (plus-8) vs. No. 4 Syracuse (Saturday in San Jose): Problematic matchup on many fronts for the Bears, who will be facing the best combination of size and talent they’ve seen all season, not to mention the best zone defense. (Here’s a good analysis of the challenge awaiting the Bears.) Syracuse wins, but I can’t pass on the points considering Cal’s home court advantage. Pick: Cal.

No. 7 Creighton (plus-4) vs. No. 2 Duke (Sunday in Philadelphia): The Blue Devils are headed home before the Final Four, but Creighton and Doug McDermott won’t be the team to send them off. The Bluejays don’t have the quickness to exploit Duke’s defensive vulnerabilities and are too McDermott-focused to score consistently. (To beat Duke, you need balance. Krzyzewski will always find a way to contain your first option.) Pick: Duke.

No. 11 Minnesota (plus-8.5) vs. No. 3 Florida (Sunday in Austin): One former Rick Pitino assistant (Tubby Smith) against another (Billy Donovan). Back before it lost a slew of games to the Big Ten heavyweights, Minnesota was 15-1 and a fixture in the top-25. The Gophers are athletic and rugged enough to make Florida grind for baskets. Pick: Minnesota.

No. 8 North Carolina (plus-5.5) vs. No. 1 Kansas (Sunday in Kansas City): The marquee matchup of the third round … and CBS’s dream Sunday evening game (5:15 p.m. tipoff EDT) … features two of the sport’s grandest names and matches UNC’s Roy Williams against his former team. The problem for Ol’ Roy is that his ex plays better defense than his current team. Center Jeff Withey will block or alter enough shots from the small-ballin Tar Heels to tilt the advantage to KU. Pick: Kansas.