ISEA Employment Report

Job Growth in California Slows Down

For the month of October, the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) study finds the overall year-over-year job growth in California has slowed down with most areas showing patchy pattern. Northern California remains the similar pattern that the coastal areas including Santa Rosa, San Francisco, SanJose, Salinas, and Stockton still show more than 3% significant job growth. In addition, Santa Cruz has improved with the whole region showing more than 3% significant job growth. Job growth in Sacramento area and Fairfield has slowed down compared to September. Yuba City and Napa have started shedding jobs in October. Merced still remains in the red zone with more than 3% job losses. On the other hand, Southern California steps back to the mixed pattern that the idling areas have stretched out the most areas although the overall year-over-year job growth remains positive. Job growth in Bakersfield area, Santa Barbara, and a few locations along I-8 in San Diego County still shows more than 3% significant job growth. Job growth in Orange County has slowed down but still appears steady with most areas showing 1% to 3% moderate growth rate. The rest areas in Southern California appear very patchy.

The overall month-over-month job growth in Southern California has stepped back to the idling status compared to September. Almost the whole region appears yellow (-1% to 1% job growth) except for a small area in southern Ventura County and the very few scattered light green areas (1% to 3% moderate job increase) in Los Angeles County and Inland Empire. There appear more scattered orange areas (1% to 3% job losses) in October where moderate job losses exist. The overall month-over-month job growth in Northern California has worsened in October with many areas showing either 1% to 3% moderate job losses or more than 3% significant job loses and the rest areas showing idling (-1% to 1% job growth). Except for Santa Cruz, where has started adding jobs in October compared to 1% to 3% moderate job losses in September, almost the whole coastal region still remains in the yellow zone (-1% to 1% job growth). A large region in Sacramento area and Fresno area shows 1% to 3% moderate job losses. Modesto and the surrounding areas of Fresno and Visalia are even worse showing more than 3% significant job losses this month.

Year-over-Year Metro Market Findings in Southern California

INLAND EMPIRE

The year-over-year job growth in Riverside and San Bernardino counties has slowed down this month with an average job increase rate of .63%.

Most areas in the central locations in the Inland region appear moderate job growth (1% to 3%) in October. Only areas near Upland, Glen Avon, Perris, and Palm Desert show more than 3% significant job growth. Idling areas (-1% to 1% job growth) have expanded to more locations in October such as areas close to Apple Valley, Muscoy, Woodcrest, El Cerrito, Yucaipa, Yucca Valley, Joshua Tree, Sedco Hills, Indio, and a large area south to Temecula.

LOS ANGELES COUNTY

The year-over-year job growth in Los Angeles County has also slowed down this month with an average job increase rate of 1.51%.

The whole region appears paler compared to September. Dark green areas (more than 3% job increase) have shrunk to five small areas including Burbank, Beverly Hills, Cerritos, Long Beach, and the area east to Rowland Heights and Walnut. The small area south to the Los Angeles city, where had seen 1% to 3% moderate job losses in September, has expanded the orange zone to the surrounding area this month. The rest region in the county appears very patchy, i.e. areas showing moderate (1% to 3%) or significant job increases (more than 3%) are next to the areas showing idling (-1% to 1%).

ORANGE COUNTY

The year-over-year job growth in Orange County has still shown the steady pattern this month, i.e. most areas still show positive job increases, but with a slightly lower average job increase rate of 1.49%.

Although the whole county still appears green, fewer locations show more than 3% significant job growth in October. For instant, the large dark green area (more than 3% job growth) along the coast between Newport Beach and Dana Point has disappeared this month. Significant job growth only appears in the following areas: a large area south to Irvine, a small area south to Newport Beach, a small area close to Westminster, a triangle region between Anaheim and Garden Grove, Los Alamitos, a small area close to the northern county line, Portola Hills and the narrow and long area east to it. On the other hand, a large area between Buena Park and Fullerton, a small area west to Portola Hills, and the area between Atwood and Villa Park have stepped back to the idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) in October.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY

The year-over-year job growth in San Diego County has weakened this month with the average job increase rate dropped from 2.27% in September to 1.89% in October.

Dark green areas (more than 3% significant job growth) only appear in Alpine, Coronado, Jamul, area between Lemon Grove and La Presa, area between Eucalyptus Hills and Suncrest, and the area north to downtown San Diego. In addition to San Luis Rey, area east of Carlsbad, area south to Casa de Oro, and the area close the south border, where had seen idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) in September, area surrounding Poway, area east to Rancho Santa Fe, and the area east to the intersection of I-5 and I-805 have stepped back to the idling status this month.

METHODOLOGY

The researchers combined today’s data release on employment by industry from the California Employment Development Department with business pattern data by Zip code and industry from the U.S. Census Bureau to arrive at their projected values. The researchers point out that, given the data available to them, their projected values are only rough approximations of the true values, and that accuracy is higher for counties with larger populations. Despite those shortcomings, the observed patterns should still be helpful for decision makers in politics, businesses and organizations to determine where to best direct their efforts.

About the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA)

The Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) serves regional, national and global business and government leaders in their needs to better understand how socio-economic phenomena affect their communities. A division of the University of Redlands School of Business, ISEA publishes ongoing, timely reports covering retail, employment, housing, logistics and other special topics. A key distinction is its ability to illustrate economic trends and patterns through the use of geo-spatial mapping techniques. In addition, ISEA’s ability to provide Zip code level analysis for many of its reports provides unprecedented detail. Current ISEA economic data and interactive maps may be found at http://isea.redlands.edu/.