Our forecasts/estimates are simple extrapolations for years with at least six months of data. We assume that crime will continue the way it has recently.

The underlying data comes from the California Departments of Justice and Finance, Los Angeles Times, CrimeMapping.com, and city websites. For consistency, we use DOJ numbers if we have them, though they don't always match city numbers (e.g., LAPD's Compstat).

The long-term average excludes the most recent year, to highlight shifts away from the average.

High-dollar larceny-theft is our term for thefts of $400 or more.

We have defined the adjusted crime rate as the number of violent and property crimes per 10,000 residents, adjusted up or down if the mix of crime in a given city is more or less serious than the California average in our base year. For example, if a city's average crime is 10% more serious than the state's -- based on potential prison sentences -- then we adjust the crime rate up by 10%. That way we've already taken into account differences in the mix of crimes when we compare crime rates across years and cities.

The "biggest" crime contributes the most to the adjusted crime rate, based on the number of incidents and the seriousness of the crime.

We say a crime stands out if -- compared to the prior year or 10-year average -- the number of incidents rose or fell at least 10% and was statistically unusual.