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Should You Sell Emerson Electric Today?

We're seeking danger signs among Fools' most beloved stocks.

The decision to sell a stock you've researched and followed for months or years is never easy. If you fall in love with your stock holdings, you risk becoming vulnerable to confirmation bias -- listening only to information that supports your theories, and rejecting any contradictions.

In 2004, longtime Fool Bill Mann called confirmation bias one of the most dangerous components of investing. This warning has helped my own personal investing throughout the Great Recession. Now, I want to help you identify potential sell signs on popular stocks within our 4 million-strong Fool.com community.

Don't sell on priceOver the past 12 months, Emerson Electric has risen 10.6% versus an S&P 500 return of 13.7%. Investors in Emerson Electric are perhaps disappointed with their market-matching returns, but is now the time to cut and run? Not necessarily. Short-term underperformance alone is not a sell sign. The market may be missing the critical element of your Emerson Electric investing thesis. For historical context, let's compare Emerson Electric's recent price to its 52-week and five-year highs. I've also included a few other businesses in the same or related industries:

Company

Recent Price

52-Week High

5-Year High

Emerson Electric

$57.41

$62.24

$62.24

Parker Hannifin(NYSE: PH)

$93.91

$97.81

$97.81

Roper Industries(NYSE: ROP)

$84.53

$88.76

$88.80

Pentair(NYSE: PNR)

$37.70

$39.77

$41.60

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

As you can see, Emerson Electric is down from its 52-week high. If you bought near the peak, now's the time to think back to why you bought it in the first place. If your reasons still hold true, you shouldn't sell based on this information alone.

Potential sell signsFirst up, we'll get a rough idea of Emerson Electric's valuation. I'm comparing Emerson Electric's recent P/E ratio of 21.4 to where it's been over the past five years.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Emerson Electric's P/E is higher than its five-year average, which could indicate the stock is overvalued. A high P/E isn't always a bad sign, since the company's growth prospects may also be increasing alongside the market's valuation. However, it definitely indicates that, on a purely historical basis, Emerson Electric looks expensive.

Now, let's look at the gross margins trend, which represents the amount of profit a company makes for each $1 in sales, after deducting all costs directly related to that sale. A deteriorating gross margin over time can indicate that competition has forced the company to lower prices, that it can't control costs, or that its whole industry's facing tough times. Here is Emerson Electric's gross margin over the past five years:

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Emerson Electric is having no trouble maintaining and even growing its gross margin, which tends to dictate a company's overall profitability. This is solid news; however, Emerson Electric investors need to keep an eye on this over the coming quarters. If margins begin to dip, you'll want to know why.

Next, let's explore what other investors think about Emerson Electric. We love the contrarian view here at Fool.com, but we don't mind cheating off of our neighbors every once in a while. For this, we'll examine two metrics: Motley Fool CAPS ratings and short interest. The former tells us how Fool.com's 170,000-strong community of individual analysts rate the stock. The latter shows what proportion of investors are betting that the stock will fall. I'm including other peer companies once again for context.

The Fool community is rather bullish on Emerson Electric. We typically like to see our stocks rated at four or five stars. Anything below that is a less-than-bullish indicator. I highly recommend you visit Emerson Electric's stock pitch page to see the verbatim reasons behind the ratings.

Here, short interest is at a mere 0.5%. This typically indicates few large institutional investors are betting against the stock.

Now, let's study Emerson Electric's debt situation, with a little help from the debt-to-equity ratio. This metric tells us how much debt the company's taken on, relative to its overall capital structure.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Emerson Electric has been taking on some additional debt over the past five years. When we take into account unchanged total equity over the same time period, this has caused debt-to-equity to increase, as seen in the above chart. Based on the trend alone, that's a bad sign. I consider a debt-to-equity ratio below 50% to be healthy, though it varies by industry. Emerson Electric is currently below this level, at 49.9%.

The last metric I like to look at is the current ratio, which lets investors judge a company's short-term liquidity. If Emerson Electric had to convert its current assets to cash in one year, how many times over could the company cover its current liabilities? As of the last filing, Emerson Electric has a current ratio of 1.48. Emerson Electric could cover its current liabilities, but it's still below a healthy level of 1.5.

Finally, it's highly beneficial to determine whether Emerson Electric belongs in your portfolio -- and to know how many similar businesses already occupy your stable of investments. If you haven't already, be sure to put your tickers into Fool.com's free portfolio tracker, My Watchlist. You can get started right away by clicking here to add Emerson Electric.

The final recap

Emerson Electric has failed three of the quick tests that would make it a sell. Does it mean you should sell your Emerson Electric shares today solely because of this? Not necessarily, but keep your eye on these trends over the coming quarters.