NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 6 games is not good. They are are the clear underdog in 10 out of the 6 games. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 1-5 (42% chance). Their chances of winning 3 or more are 11.9%. At #15 in the conference, they are fighting with the Hawks for positioning. With a -0.27 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Cavaliers are the 10th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Cavaliers are playing 9 games, traveling 4241 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #23 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] With a 2-12 record, the Cavaliers are falling well short of their money line projected win total of 5 wins. They have 2 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs just one good win. They have been below expectations on the road and at home. Their 0-7 road record is -23% lower than expected. Their 2-5 home record is -15% lower. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (2-9, 18%) is under their expected 33% win percentage. Cavaliers fans have to be disappointed that they have fallen well short of their pre-season expectations where they were #9 in the league in power ranking. In simulations where the Cavaliers played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 26.3% of the time (#29 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #9 winning 58.6%.

STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.7% (#25 in League). They average 103.4 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107. On the road they average 102.4 (104.2 expected), and at home 104.3 ppg (109.7 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 58.1 true FG% (#29 in League). Team defense is trending up holding opponents to 54.5% in their last 7 games. Even though they allow a high shooting %, they actually allow fewer points (111.8) than expected (112.1). They are allowing 114.7 (112.9 expected) on the road, and at home 108.9 ppg (111.4 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +3.1 per game (#9 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.5 per game (#22 in league).

Sportsline has a free pick on the Cleveland Cavaliers' next game. They are +11 underdogs and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

Before the season, the Cavaliers were projected to win 49.8 games (average per simulation) but it does not look like they are going to reach that. On 6/20 their projected win total was up to 50.9 before dropping to 17.6 on 11/17. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down significantly to 17.6 wins.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #5 Toughest

Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 46% #12 Easiest

Cavaliers' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.