258
FXUS64 KMAF 311938
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
238 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area in southwest Mexico will move
east tonight toward the Big Bend and weaken as another trough
moves onshore on the west Coast. This trough will produce a slight
chance of thunderstorms overnight across mainly west Texas. Not
expecting much if any severe weather given the extensive cloud
shield with a weakening upper system approaching after peak
heating with weak dryline/convergence and marginal shear.
The upper level trough will quickly move east and be replaced by
zonal flow through the weekend. A surface lee low/trough will
reform in this flow with low level thermal ridging and downslope
flow producing much above normal temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday. In addition breezy to windy conditions will develop
across southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans Pecos and the
northern and central Permian Basin by Thursday afternoon as winds
increase through the column. High winds are not out of the
question in the Guadalupe Mountains and later shifts will need
to monitor for a high wind watch for Thursday in that area.
An upper level trough moving across the northern states is
forecast to drop a cold front through the region Friday
with temperatures dropping back to below normal by
Saturday.
West to southwest flow aloft will continue next Sunday through
next Tuesday with much above normal temperatures quickly
developing again. A dryline will develop and push east each day
from the eastern slopes of the mountains in the morning, to the
central or eastern Permian Basin by late afternoon. Late afternoon
and or early evening isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out
east of the dryline but confidence was not high enough at this
time to mention in the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 56 85 55 90 / 20 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 61 87 60 93 / 20 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 55 89 52 92 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 58 90 61 96 / 20 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 60 89 61 92 / 20 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 50 78 53 82 / 20 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 53 84 51 83 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 43 79 43 85 / 20 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 56 87 55 91 / 20 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 57 87 58 91 / 20 0 0 0
WINK TX 55 89 54 93 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper-lvl trough will make landfall on the PacNW coast Wednesday
afternoon, and dive to the 4 Corners area by late Thursday
afternoon. Abundant daytime heating over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico will result in unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures
climbing to the 80s and low 90s, yielding minimum RH`s of 5-10
percent. Forecast soundings mix to above 700mb, where 25-35 mph WSW
flow is forecast to round the base of the upper trough. This
may result in critical fire weather conditions for much of the day
Thursday, as well as Thursday evening. Thus, we`ll issue a Fire Wx
Watch for SE NM and adjacent areas. Fire Danger is currently only
moderate is some of the areas in the watch, but this is expected to
change w/continued heating/drying over the next 36-48 hours.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Dawson...
Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Reeves County and
Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.
&&
$$
44/12
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931
FXUS64 KMAF 311713
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
WV imagery shows the upper trough making landfall in srn Sonora,
and advecting a thick canopy of CS over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico. According to the models, convection should be
developing over the Presidio Valley/Marfa Plateau right now, but
CS is hindering heating/mixing/instability. For now, VFR
conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Forecast soundings suggest
a cu field developing shortly, w/bases 7-9 kft AGL, and
redeveloping near the end of the forecast period NE zones. We`ll
hold off on a mention of convection attm due to CS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
See 12z aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours. Winds
will mostly be out of the south to southwest. There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours for
FST, MAF, INK and PEQ with the best chances at FST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Shallow low level mstr is in place and with daytime heating resulting
in a well mixed boundary layer convective cloud bases today will be
around 6500 ft AGL. As mid/upper level nears the Big Bend later
today there will be an increased chance of storms. Low level mstr
field is depicted to be rather diffuse except INVOF srn Pecos/nrn
Brewster where low level wind fields indicate a convergent area of
low pressure. Glass Mtns will aid in the development/initiation of
storms too. Have kept integrity of previous forecast and have
included mention of severe storms generally from Ft Stockton to Big
Lake...to Sheffield where 0-6km bulk shear increases to near 40kts.
By Wed mid level flow transitions to weak wly, but enough for
surface pressure falls to organize into a well defined lee trof with
a 22C-24C 85h thermal ridge from Panhandle into Upper Trans Pecos.
85h winds mostly 15kts or less in a well mixed and drier boundary
layer. Pattern is even moreso Thur with 85h winds mostly around
20kts and 7h winds 30-35kts. Some differences in surface low with
ECMWF the deepest and with tightest MSLP gradient...a definite
warm/drier/windier day though. Max temperature anomalies will be
about 10-13 degrees above normal, L80s-N90. 7h winds suggest high
winds will be possible in parts of the GDP Mtns. Meanwhile a cold
front will move thru the TX plains Fri AM. Post-frontal breezy
conditions are expected Fri AM across PB and across the Trans Pecos
in the PM as 7mb/3hr isallobaric pushes the front. Noticeably cooler
N of the Pecos River Fri PM, by about 20 degrees. 85h temps of
20-22c along the Rio Grande/Big Bend regions suggest temps will
still be in the 80s there. Light QPF generated by models Sat PM for
the Trans Pecos (mainly) within pocket of steeper mid level lapse
rates/upslope flow. By Easter Sunday warm low level air will already
be surging ewd and 85h temperatures may be as warm as 20C in the e
to 24C in the w. Mid level flow on Monday is setting up to be a warm
(+15 temperature departures), dry, and windy day. The warm/dry air
does not really go anywhere Tue, but winds relax some.
FIRE WEATHER...
The warmer/dry pattern on Wed will serve to dry fine fuels while
the lack of significant wind will preclude a greater and more
widespread concern. The possible exception on Wed will be the
GDP/Delaware Mtns where ridge top winds near 20-25 mph are
expected. A more substantial concern is expected to develop Thur
when 85h-7h winds increase and much drier air surges out east
across much of the area. At this point there is a good indication
that a Fire Wx Watch will be needed for most areas except the
Lower Trans Pecos. Fuels are a concern though. Across much of the
PB there has been some green-up, however farther w in SE NM and
certainly the mtns there`s been less/no green-up, respectively.
TA&MFS` most recent assessment of fuel suggest that Initial Attack
type fires/response will increase, however the larger fuels as
seen in data like the ERC/Fuel Dryness indicates fires will
generally not show too much resistance to control. Exceptions
could be in the mtns including Davis/Delaware/GDP where there may
be higher grass loading. After the front on Fri fire wx concerns
will be renewed Sun-Tue.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
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059
FXUS64 KMAF 311102
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 12z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours. Winds
will mostly be out of the south to southwest. There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours for
FST, MAF, INK and PEQ with the best chances at FST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Shallow low level mstr is in place and with daytime heating resulting
in a well mixed boundary layer convective cloud bases today will be
around 6500 ft AGL. As mid/upper level nears the Big Bend later
today there will be an increased chance of storms. Low level mstr
field is depicted to be rather diffuse except INVOF srn Pecos/nrn
Brewster where low level wind fields indicate a convergent area of
low pressure. Glass Mtns will aid in the development/initiation of
storms too. Have kept integrity of previous forecast and have
included mention of severe storms generally from Ft Stockton to Big
Lake...to Sheffield where 0-6km bulk shear increases to near 40kts.
By Wed mid level flow transitions to weak wly, but enough for
surface pressure falls to organize into a well defined lee trof with
a 22C-24C 85h thermal ridge from Panhandle into Upper Trans Pecos.
85h winds mostly 15kts or less in a well mixed and drier boundary
layer. Pattern is even moreso Thur with 85h winds mostly around
20kts and 7h winds 30-35kts. Some differences in surface low with
ECMWF the deepest and with tightest MSLP gradient...a definite
warm/drier/windier day though. Max temperature anomalies will be
about 10-13 degrees above normal, L80s-N90. 7h winds suggest high
winds will be possible in parts of the GDP Mtns. Meanwhile a cold
front will move thru the TX plains Fri AM. Post-frontal breezy
conditions are expected Fri AM across PB and across the Trans Pecos
in the PM as 7mb/3hr isallobaric pushes the front. Noticeably cooler
N of the Pecos River Fri PM, by about 20 degrees. 85h temps of
20-22c along the Rio Grande/Big Bend regions suggest temps will
still be in the 80s there. Light QPF generated by models Sat PM for
the Trans Pecos (mainly) within pocket of steeper mid level lapse
rates/upslope flow. By Easter Sunday warm low level air will already
be surging ewd and 85h temperatures may be as warm as 20C in the e
to 24C in the w. Mid level flow on Monday is setting up to be a warm
(+15 temperature departures), dry, and windy day. The warm/dry air
does not really go anywhere Tue, but winds relax some.
FIRE WEATHER...
The warmer/dry pattern on Wed will serve to dry fine fuels while
the lack of significant wind will preclude a greater and more
widespread concern. The possible exception on Wed will be the
GDP/Delaware Mtns where ridge top winds near 20-25 mph are
expected. A more substantial concern is expected to develop Thur
when 85h-7h winds increase and much drier air surges out east
across much of the area. At this point there is a good indication
that a Fire Wx Watch will be needed for most areas except the
Lower Trans Pecos. Fuels are a concern though. Across much of the
PB there has been some green-up, however farther w in SE NM and
certainly the mtns there`s been less/no green-up, respectively.
TA&MFS` most recent assessment of fuel suggest that Initial Attack
type fires/response will increase, however the larger fuels as
seen in data like the ERC/Fuel Dryness indicates fires will
generally not show too much resistance to control. Exceptions
could be in the mtns including Davis/Delaware/GDP where there may
be higher grass loading. After the front on Fri fire wx concerns
will be renewed Sun-Tue.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
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657
FXUS64 KMAF 310816
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
316 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Shallow low level mstr is in place and with daytime heating resulting
in a well mixed boundary layer convective cloud bases today will be
around 6500 ft AGL. As mid/upper level nears the Big Bend later today
there will be an increased chance of storms. Low level mstr field is
depicted to be rather diffuse except INVOF srn Pecos/nrn Brewster
where low level wind fields indicate a convergent area of low
pressure. Glass Mtns will aid in the development/initiation of
storms too. Have kept integrity of previous forecast and have
included mention of severe storms generally from Ft Stockton to Big
Lake...to Sheffield where 0-6km bulk shear increases to near 40kts.
By Wed mid level flow transitions to weak wly, but enough for
surface pressure falls to organize into a well defined lee trof with
a 22C-24C 85h thermal ridge from Panhandle into Upper Trans Pecos.
85h winds mostly 15kts or less in a well mixed and drier boundary
layer. Pattern is even moreso Thur with 85h winds mostly around
20kts and 7h winds 30-35kts. Some differences in surface low with
ECMWF the deepest and with tightest MSLP gradient...a definite
warm/drier/windier day though. Max temperature anomalies will be
about 10-13 degrees above normal, L80s-N90. 7h winds suggest high
winds will be possible in parts of the GDP Mtns. Meanwhile a cold
front will move thru the TX plains Fri AM. Post-frontal breezy
conditions are expected Fri AM across PB and across the Trans Pecos
in the PM as 7mb/3hr isallobaric pushes the front. Noticeably cooler
N of the Pecos River Fri PM, by about 20 degrees. 85h temps of
20-22c along the Rio Grande/Big Bend regions suggest temps will still
be in the 80s there. Light QPF generated by models Sat PM for the
Trans Pecos (mainly) within pocket of steeper mid level lapse
rates/upslope flow. By Easter Sunday warm low level air will already
be surging ewd and 85h temperatures may be as warm as 20C in the e
to 24C in the w. Mid level flow on Monday is setting up to be a warm
(+15 temperature departures), dry, and windy day. The warm/dry air
does not really go anywhere Tue, but winds relax some.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The warmer/dry pattern on Wed will serve to dry fine fuels while
the lack of significant wind will preclude a greater and more
widespread concern. The possible exception on Wed will be the
GDP/Delaware Mtns where ridge top winds near 20-25 mph are
expected. A more substantial concern is expected to develop Thur
when 85h-7h winds increase and much drier air surges out east
across much of the area. At this point there is a good indication
that a Fire Wx Watch will be needed for most areas except the
Lower Trans Pecos. Fuels are a concern though. Across much of the
PB there has been some green-up, however farther w in SE NM and
certainly the mtns there`s been less/no green-up, respectively.
TA&MFS` most recent assessment of fuel suggest that Initial Attack
type fires/response will increase, however the larger fuels as
seen in data like the ERC/Fuel Dryness indicates fires will
generally not show too much resistance to control. Exceptions
could be in the mtns including Davis/Delaware/GDP where there may
be higher grass loading. After the front on Fri fire wx concerns
will be renewed Sun-Tue.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 84 55 85 56 / 20 10 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 87 59 87 59 / 30 20 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 85 53 88 55 / 10 10 0 10
DRYDEN TX 83 59 88 59 / 30 30 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 84 57 86 59 / 50 30 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 76 52 78 54 / 20 10 0 0
HOBBS NM 84 52 84 52 / 10 10 0 10
MARFA TX 74 45 79 47 / 30 20 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 85 56 87 57 / 30 20 10 0
ODESSA TX 85 57 87 58 / 30 20 10 10
WINK TX 87 54 88 54 / 20 20 0 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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399
FXUS64 KMAF 310502
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 06z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours. Winds
will mostly be out of the south to southwest. There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours for
FST, MAF, INK and PEQ with the best chances at FST.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what`s left of it, over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night`s cold front. In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja
trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as
well.
Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the FA,
w/a Td of 53F at KMAF at 19Z. Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning. Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we`ll go w/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints. As
the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east. Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and
mid-lvl LR`s of nr 7C/km. Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable
for a hail threat, and a dry PBL to keep damaging winds in play.
We`ll put a mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for
this for Tuesday afternoon/evening. Convection should clear the
area to the east by 06Z Wednesday.
Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/a
gradual warmup. Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
Corners, w/a 25-35kt H7 jet forecast to round the base of this
feature. Forecast soundings at KGDP/KCNM mix out to above H7
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the Guadalupes, SE NM, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.
Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
w/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday. minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the SE zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
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557
FXUS64 KMAF 302315
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds expected through the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what`s left of it, over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night`s cold front. In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja
trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as
well.
Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the FA,
w/a Td of 53F at KMAF at 19Z. Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning. Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we`ll go w/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints. As
the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east. Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and mid-lvl
LR`s of nr 7C/km. Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable for a hail
threat, and a dry PBL to keep damaging winds in play. We`ll put a
mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for this for
Tuesday afternoon/evening. Convection should clear the area to the
east by 06Z Wednesday.
Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/a
gradual warmup. Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
Corners, w/a 25-35kt H7 jet forecast to round the base of this
feature. Forecast soundings at KGDP/KCNM mix out to above H7
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the Guadalupes, SE NM, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.
Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
w/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday. minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the SE zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10
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242
FXUS64 KMAF 301950
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what`s left of it, over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night`s cold front. In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja
trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as
well.
Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the FA,
w/a Td of 53F at KMAF at 19Z. Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning. Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we`ll go w/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints. As
the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east. Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and mid-lvl
LR`s of nr 7C/km. Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable for a hail
threat, and a dry PBL to keep damaging winds in play. We`ll put a
mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for this for
Tuesday afternoon/evening. Convection should clear the area to the
east by 06Z Wednesday.
Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/a
gradual warmup. Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
Corners, w/a 25-35kt H7 jet forecast to round the base of this
feature. Forecast soundings at KGDP/KCNM mix out to above H7
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the Guadalupes, SE NM, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.
Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
w/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday. minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the SE zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 57 82 52 86 / 0 10 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 62 87 62 89 / 0 30 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 52 81 50 87 / 0 10 10 10
DRYDEN TX 61 84 59 90 / 0 50 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 61 86 59 88 / 10 40 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 59 75 52 77 / 0 10 10 0
HOBBS NM 52 81 49 83 / 0 10 10 10
MARFA TX 49 74 46 78 / 0 20 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 86 57 86 / 0 30 10 10
ODESSA TX 60 85 56 86 / 0 20 10 10
WINK TX 54 86 52 90 / 0 20 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12/44
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541
FXUS64 KMAF 301710
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours with an abundance of mid and
high clouds. There is some chance that MVFR ceilings could
develop toward sunrise at KMAF and or KINK but confidence was
not high enough to include. Will monitor for the next issuance.
Winds will generally be under 10 mph.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
VFR with abundant mid and high clouds. Light northerly wind this
morning will veer around to the SE during the afternoon as leeside
trough deepens.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Will go into brief ridging aloft but main feature of interest is a
A cut off low south of CA this morning will move across Baja
overnight. Shortwaves from this low will move into the area Tuesday
bringing the possibility of storms. After that a flat ridge builds
across the area with mild and warm wx through the end of the work
week. By the weekend another upper trough may approach the area
from the west with rain chances returning to the forecast.
A weak front moved through Sunday. Will start off the day with a NE
wind but this will veer around to the SE by afternoon as a leeside
trough deepens. Temperatures will be a little cooler today than
past several days but guidance not as cool as previous runs. Highs
will be in the 70s and 80s today. Temps begin to climb again
Tuesday with upper 80s returning Wednesday and Thursday. A front on
Friday will knock highs back into the 70s with even cooler readings
on Saturday.
Would like to say models are in agreement as to rain chances but ETA
is much wetter than GFS with ECM some where in between. The Eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will have best chance of seeing
storms Tuesday. Storms will mainly be during the afternoon as a weak
dryline develops and combines with upper support... but models are
also developing rain farther to the west. Look to have decent but
not great low level moisture with dewpts into the 50s for the east.
Current forecast has highest pops in the east and this looks on
track so left as is. Did raise pops a little back to the west. Some
of these storms could be strong to severe and will continue to
highlight in HWO. If models come more into agreement could see pops
increase or decrease for Tuesday. By next weekend the next upper
trough coming off the west coast may bring another chance of storms
to the area... will continue low pops.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 81 56 83 54 / 0 10 20 20
BIG SPRING TX 83 60 86 58 / 0 10 40 20
CARLSBAD NM 80 53 84 52 / 0 10 10 10
DRYDEN TX 84 61 84 61 / 0 10 40 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 82 60 86 59 / 0 10 40 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 76 55 77 50 / 0 10 20 10
HOBBS NM 77 53 83 52 / 0 10 10 10
MARFA TX 82 45 77 42 / 10 10 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 81 58 84 55 / 0 10 30 20
ODESSA TX 81 58 84 56 / 0 10 30 20
WINK TX 82 54 87 52 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27/72
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896
FXUS64 KMAF 301111
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR with abundant mid and high clouds. Light northerly wind this
morning will veer around to the SE during the afternoon as leeside
trough deepens.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Will go into brief ridging aloft but main feature of interest is a
A cut off low south of CA this morning will move across Baja
overnight. Shortwaves from this low will move into the area Tuesday
bringing the possibility of storms. After that a flat ridge builds
across the area with mild and warm wx through the end of the work
week. By the weekend another upper trough may approach the area
from the west with rain chances returning to the forecast.
A weak front moved through Sunday. Will start off the day with a NE
wind but this will veer around to the SE by afternoon as a leeside
trough deepens. Temperatures will be a little cooler today than
past several days but guidance not as cool as previous runs. Highs
will be in the 70s and 80s today. Temps begin to climb again
Tuesday with upper 80s returning Wednesday and Thursday. A front on
Friday will knock highs back into the 70s with even cooler readings
on Saturday.
Would like to say models are in agreement as to rain chances but ETA
is much wetter than GFS with ECM some where in between. The Eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will have best chance of seeing
storms Tuesday. Storms will mainly be during the afternoon as a weak
dryline develops and combines with upper support... but models are
also developing rain farther to the west. Look to have decent but
not great low level moisture with dewpts into the 50s for the east.
Current forecast has highest pops in the east and this looks on
track so left as is. Did raise pops a little back to the west. Some
of these storms could be strong to severe and will continue to
highlight in HWO. If models come more into agreement could see pops
increase or decrease for Tuesday. By next weekend the next upper
trough coming off the west coast may bring another chance of storms
to the area... will continue low pops.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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152
FXUS64 KMAF 300832
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
332 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Will go into brief ridging aloft but main feature of interest is a
A cut off low south of CA this morning will move across Baja
overnight. Shortwaves from this low will move into the area Tuesday
bringing the possibility of storms. After that a flat ridge builds
across the area with mild and warm wx through the end of the work
week. By the weekend another upper trough may approach the area
from the west with rain chances returning to the forecast.
A weak front moved through Sunday. Will start off the day with a NE
wind but this will veer around to the SE by afternoon as a leeside
trough deepens. Temperatures will be a little cooler today than
past several days but guidance not as cool as previous runs. Highs
will be in the 70s and 80s today. Temps begin to climb again
Tuesday with upper 80s returning Wednesday and Thursday. A front on
Friday will knock highs back into the 70s with even cooler readings
on Saturday.
Would like to say models are in agreement as to rain chances but ETA
is much wetter than GFS with ECM some where in between. The Eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will have best chance of seeing
storms Tuesday. Storms will mainly be during the afternoon as a weak
dryline develops and combines with upper support... but models are
also developing rain farther to the west. Look to have decent but
not great low level moisture with dewpts into the 50s for the east.
Current forecast has highest pops in the east and this looks on
track so left as is. Did raise pops a little back to the west. Some
of these storms could be strong to severe and will continue to
highlight in HWO. If models come more into agreement could see pops
increase or decrease for Tuesday. By next weekend the next upper
trough coming off the west coast may bring another chance of storms
to the area... will continue low pops.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 81 56 83 54 / 0 10 20 20
BIG SPRING TX 83 60 86 58 / 0 10 40 20
CARLSBAD NM 80 53 84 52 / 0 10 10 10
DRYDEN TX 84 61 84 61 / 0 10 40 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 82 60 86 59 / 0 10 40 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 76 55 77 50 / 0 10 20 10
HOBBS NM 77 53 83 52 / 0 10 10 10
MARFA TX 82 45 77 42 / 10 10 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 81 58 84 55 / 0 10 30 20
ODESSA TX 81 58 84 56 / 0 10 30 20
WINK TX 82 54 87 52 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27/72
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278
FXUS64 KMAF 300445
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1145 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hour, VFR conditions will
persist at all terminals. Currently have NE winds diminishing and
veering to the east at most sites at the cold front continues to
push south further away from terminals. Expect light SE winds and
increasing high clouds throughout the day Monday.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Another fine afternoon has evolved across West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, w/KMAF ASOS currently reading 90F, more representative
of late May than late March. Sfc analysis shows the cold front has
barely dipped into the nrn-tiered zones, w/the colder air lagging
back in the South Plains. Diurnal heating has slowed southward
progression, and things probably won`t move much until after peak
heating. Latest buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 23Z.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge still to the west, but much
flatter/dampened than 24 hrs ago, yielding zonal flow aloft at the
moment.
Cold front will move thru overnight, and bring temps closer to
normal Monday. The closed low off the Baja coast will nudge the
ridge into central Texas by 00Z Tuesday, putting West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft. Tuesday, the trough is forecast to shear out
and move thru the area, sharpening up a weak dryline out west early,
and pushing it through the east during the afternoon. Best
instability will be confined along the ern-tiered zones, w/forecast
soundings yielding sbcapes in excess of 2500 J/kg in the ern Permian
Basin. Deep-lyr shear continues to look minimal, but mid-lvl LR`s
in excess of 7C/km and favorable wet-bulb zero heights will proffer
a hail threat. Also, w/dry sublayers to H7 or so, can`t rule out a
wind threat, either. We`ll mention this in the HWO, but leave it
out of the grids for now, as the GFS/ECMWF are not as bullish as the
NAM.
Wednesday, w/the trough having scoured moisture east, attention
turns to fire wx. The region will be under zonal flow aloft and on
a warming trend. Forecast soundings for Wednesday afternoon mix to
above H7, which will bring 20-25kt westerly flow to the sfc out
west, where 10-15 pct RH`s are forecast. Conditions look even more
favorable Thursday, w/warmer temps forecast, and a trough to the
north mixing stronger winds down. Friday, a cold front will cool
things down a notch, then bring even cooler temps and a chance of
convection to the area over the weekend.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27
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614
FXUS64 KMAF 292310
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR with light northeast winds becoming southeasterly through the
TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Another fine afternoon has evolved across West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, w/KMAF ASOS currently reading 90F, more representative
of late May than late March. Sfc analysis shows the cold front has
barely dipped into the nrn-tiered zones, w/the colder air lagging
back in the South Plains. Diurnal heating has slowed southward
progression, and things probably won`t move much until after peak
heating. Latest buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 23Z.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge still to the west, but much
flatter/dampened than 24 hrs ago, yielding zonal flow aloft at the
moment.
Cold front will move thru overnight, and bring temps closer to
normal Monday. The closed low off the Baja coast will nudge the
ridge into central Texas by 00Z Tuesday, putting West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft. Tuesday, the trough is forecast to shear out
and move thru the area, sharpening up a weak dryline out west early,
and pushing it through the east during the afternoon. Best
instability will be confined along the ern-tiered zones, w/forecast
soundings yielding sbcapes in excess of 2500 J/kg in the ern Permian
Basin. Deep-lyr shear continues to look minimal, but mid-lvl LR`s
in excess of 7C/km and favorable wet-bulb zero heights will proffer
a hail threat. Also, w/dry sublayers to H7 or so, can`t rule out a
wind threat, either. We`ll mention this in the HWO, but leave it
out of the grids for now, as the GFS/ECMWF are not as bullish as the
NAM.
Wednesday, w/the trough having scoured moisture east, attention
turns to fire wx. The region will be under zonal flow aloft and on
a warming trend. Forecast soundings for Wednesday afternoon mix to
above H7, which will bring 20-25kt westerly flow to the sfc out
west, where 10-15 pct RH`s are forecast. Conditions look even more
favorable Thursday, w/warmer temps forecast, and a trough to the
north mixing stronger winds down. Friday, a cold front will cool
things down a notch, then bring even cooler temps and a chance of
convection to the area over the weekend.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10
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795
FXUS64 KMAF 291945
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Another fine afternoon has evolved across West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, w/KMAF ASOS currently reading 90F, more representative
of late May than late March. Sfc analysis shows the cold front has
barely dipped into the nrn-tiered zones, w/the colder air lagging
back in the South Plains. Diurnal heating has slowed southward
progression, and things probably won`t move much until after peak
heating. Latest buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 23Z.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge still to the west, but much
flatter/dampened than 24 hrs ago, yielding zonal flow aloft at the
moment.
Cold front will move thru overnight, and bring temps closer to
normal Monday. The closed low off the Baja coast will nudge the
ridge into central Texas by 00Z Tuesday, putting West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft. Tuesday, the trough is forecast to shear out
and move thru the area, sharpening up a weak dryline out west early,
and pushing it through the east during the afternoon. Best
instability will be confined along the ern-tiered zones, w/forecast
soundings yielding sbcapes in excess of 2500 J/kg in the ern Permian
Basin. Deep-lyr shear continues to look minimal, but mid-lvl LR`s
in excess of 7C/km and favorable wet-bulb zero heights will proffer
a hail threat. Also, w/dry sublayers to H7 or so, can`t rule out a
wind threat, either. We`ll mention this in the HWO, but leave it
out of the grids for now, as the GFS/ECMWF are not as bullish as the
NAM.
Wednesday, w/the trough having scoured moisture east, attention
turns to fire wx. The region will be under zonal flow aloft and on
a warming trend. Forecast soundings for Wednesday afternoon mix to
above H7, which will bring 20-25kt westerly flow to the sfc out
west, where 10-15 pct RH`s are forecast. Conditions look even more
favorable Thursday, w/warmer temps forecast, and a trough to the
north mixing stronger winds down. Friday, a cold front will cool
things down a notch, then bring even cooler temps and a chance of
convection to the area over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 47 78 55 83 / 0 0 10 20
BIG SPRING TX 52 80 59 84 / 0 0 10 40
CARLSBAD NM 49 77 54 83 / 0 0 10 10
DRYDEN TX 56 74 59 83 / 0 0 10 40
FORT STOCKTON TX 50 78 63 83 / 0 0 10 30
GUADALUPE PASS TX 48 75 54 76 / 0 0 10 10
HOBBS NM 45 74 49 80 / 0 0 10 10
MARFA TX 38 78 45 75 / 0 10 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 50 78 58 83 / 0 0 10 30
ODESSA TX 52 78 58 83 / 0 0 10 30
WINK TX 50 78 54 86 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
70/44
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684
FXUS64 KMAF 291821
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
121 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front located roughly along an Aspermont TX/Snyder TX/Andrews
TX/Artesia NM line will translate south during the afternoon hours,
eventually reaching the mountains by early evening. Significant pressure
rises (around 1.5 mb/hr) over the OK and TX panhandles has created a
respectable isallobaric gradient. In spite of strong insolation
limiting already weak low level cold air advection, isallobaric
flow along with deep layer mixing will promote gusty north to
northwest winds behind the front. Localized areas of blowing dust
sourced off plowed South Plains cotton fields is likely. The
presence of wave clouds over the southern Sangre de Christo and
Sandia mountain ranges as well as forecast low to mid level static
stability suggests wind gusts near 30 mph are possible along the
Pecos River valley of southeastern New Mexico.
Latest mesoscale model runs suggest the area of strongest low
level winds will shift southeast, in concert with the southeastern
migration of the surface pressure rises. As a result, there looks
to be a short window where gusty winds will impact the northern
Permian Basin before the PBL decouples around sunset. Winds will
veer overnight and become southeasterly by mid morning. Increasing
upper moisture tapped from the subtropical eastern Pacific will
result in thickening cirriform clouds overnight, with most areas
becoming mostly cloudy around sunrise. Otherwise, sig wx nil.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across area terminals through 30/18Z.
Gusty north to northwest winds are expected this afternoon, with
wind gusts AOA 20 kts at KHOB, KMAF, KCNM, and KINK. Additionally,
moderate turbulence above FL120 is expected just east of the
Guadalupe Mountains. Winds will slack off around sunset and veer
during the overnight hours, becoming southeastery by mid morning
Monday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
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844
FXUS64 KMAF 291126
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
Clear skies today. Light wind this morning will come around to the
north during the day as a front moves into the area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.
Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.
Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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734
FXUS64 KMAF 290810
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.
Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.
Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 86 47 74 55 / 0 0 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 89 49 77 59 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 87 47 75 51 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN TX 91 56 79 60 / 0 0 10 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 90 51 76 59 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 81 50 71 51 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS NM 83 44 73 51 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA TX 83 41 75 50 / 0 0 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 88 47 76 57 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA TX 87 47 75 58 / 0 0 0 10
WINK TX 90 50 76 56 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
72/27
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598
FXUS64 KMAF 290535
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds. Light S/SW wind overnight will come around to the
north during the day as a weak front moves through the area.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the current forecast. WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico. Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.
Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east. However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon. Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday. A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating. Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday. Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA. Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail. PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.
Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended. W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65. A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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136
FXUS64 KMAF 282256
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
No aviation issues expected over the next day so will continue
with VFR conditions in the TAFs. Winds may get a little gusty
though Sunday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the current forecast. WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico. Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.
Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east. However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon. Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday. A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating. Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday. Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA. Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail. PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.
Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended. W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65. A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
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975
FXUS64 KMAF 282011
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the current forecast. WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico. Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.
Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east. However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon. Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday. A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating. Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday. Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA. Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail. PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.
Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended. W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65. A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 50 87 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 55 94 54 73 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 43 88 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 54 94 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 55 91 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 58 84 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 52 86 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 40 83 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 53 91 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 53 91 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 46 91 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
80/44
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024
FXUS64 KMAF 281707
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
mostly be out of the southwest to west with a gradual change to the
northwest for some locations this afternoon. Winds will weaken
overnight and will be somewhat variable.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues today as upper ridging to the west,
along with the 850mb thermal ridge, inch eastward throughout the
day. Generally have westerly winds at the surface and sunny skies
which will aide in afternoon temperatures warming to the upper 80s
and low 90s. Could see a short period of near critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon across portions of the Guadalupe
Mountains and will handle this with a Fire Danger Statement for
this area. Much of the same can be expected Sunday regardless of a
slow wind shift to the N throughout the day. MOS Guidance has
proved to be a little too warm lately so will undercut temps
slightly at most places for today and tomorrow. This lovely
stretch of warm temps will briefly come to an end with the arrival
of a cold front Sunday evening. Near normal temperatures (70s) can
be expected Monday and Tuesday.
Models continue to advertise an upper trough approaching the region
from the west early next week. Thunderstorm chances look to begin
late Monday night and continue on into Tuesday as upper forcing for
ascent moves across the region. Best chances will generally be
confined to the eastern half of the CWA, where best low level
moisture will reside. Model soundings continue to indicate somewhat
dry air in the mid-levels, which could definitely be a limiting
factor in thunderstorm development so kept PoPs to chance and slight
chance.
Beyond Tuesday, dry conditions and above normal temperatures return
under zonal flow aloft. Another cold front will move through late in
the week and we could start next weekend with below normal temps and
potential rain chances. Will keep PoPs below mention for now.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
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154
FXUS64 KMAF 281121
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with mostly clear skies today. Light southerly wind
this morning will become more westerly and increase in speed by
midday as leeside trough deepens.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues today as upper ridging to the west,
along with the 850mb thermal ridge, inch eastward throughout the
day. Generally have westerly winds at the surface and sunny skies
which will aide in afternoon temperatures warming to the upper 80s
and low 90s. Could see a short period of near critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon across portions of the Guadalupe
Mountains and will handle this with a Fire Danger Statement for
this area. Much of the same can be expected Sunday regardless of a
slow wind shift to the N throughout the day. MOS Guidance has
proved to be a little too warm lately so will undercut temps
slightly at most places for today and tomorrow. This lovely
stretch of warm temps will briefly come to an end with the arrival
of a cold front Sunday evening. Near normal temperatures (70s) can
be expected Monday and Tuesday.
Models continue to advertise an upper trough approaching the region
from the west early next week. Thunderstorm chances look to begin
late Monday night and continue on into Tuesday as upper forcing for
ascent moves across the region. Best chances will generally be
confined to the eastern half of the CWA, where best low level
moisture will reside. Model soundings continue to indicate somewhat
dry air in the mid-levels, which could definitely be a limiting
factor in thunderstorm development so kept PoPs to chance and slight
chance.
Beyond Tuesday, dry conditions and above normal temperatures return
under zonal flow aloft. Another cold front will move through late in
the week and we could start next weekend with below normal temps and
potential rain chances. Will keep PoPs below mention for now.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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570
FXUS64 KMAF 280819
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
319 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues today as upper ridging to the west,
along with the 850mb thermal ridge, inch eastward throughout the
day. Generally have westerly winds at the surface and sunny skies
which will aide in afternoon temperatures warming to the upper 80s
and low 90s. Could see a short period of near critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon across portions of the Guadalupe
Mountains and will handle this with a Fire Danger Statement for
this area. Much of the same can be expected Sunday regardless of a
slow wind shift to the N throughout the day. MOS Guidance has
proved to be a little too warm lately so will undercut temps
slightly at most places for today and tomorrow. This lovely
stretch of warm temps will briefly come to an end with the arrival
of a cold front Sunday evening. Near normal temperatures (70s) can
be expected Monday and Tuesday.
Models continue to advertise an upper trough approaching the region
from the west early next week. Thunderstorm chances look to begin
late Monday night and continue on into Tuesday as upper forcing for
ascent moves across the region. Best chances will generally be
confined to the eastern half of the CWA, where best low level
moisture will reside. Model soundings continue to indicate somewhat
dry air in the mid-levels, which could definitely be a limiting
factor in thunderstorm development so kept PoPs to chance and slight
chance.
Beyond Tuesday, dry conditions and above normal temperatures return
under zonal flow aloft. Another cold front will move through late in
the week and we could start next weekend with below normal temps and
potential rain chances. Will keep PoPs below mention for now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 88 50 87 50 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 90 53 90 52 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 89 47 86 51 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 89 52 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 91 54 91 52 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 81 55 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 87 47 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 82 42 83 44 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 89 51 89 50 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 89 52 88 52 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 90 46 90 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
72/27
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025
FXUS64 KMAF 280536
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1236 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR with clear skies across the region. Light southerly wind tonight
will become more westerly during the day as surface trough deepens.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows a broad ridge over the western CONUS, leaving West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft. SW sfc flow has
allowed afternoon temps to rebound to near-normal, w/a couple of
degrees left to go.
Upper ridge will begin breaking down and nudging east over the next
24 hours in response to a trough making landfall in the PacNW.
However, heights/thicknesses will continue increasing thru Sunday as
the ridge moves overhead, resulting in well-abv normal temps
Sat/Sun, w/Sun especially feeling like late May. However, despite
this, guidance seems a bit warm, w/diurnal spreads to big, perhaps
because both the NAM and GFS initialized too dry on sfc Td.
Forecast soundings and H85 temps suggest staying on the lower end.
Even so, temps should be the warmest yet this spring, w/an elevated
fire danger Saturday from the Guadalupes to the Davis/Apache Mtns.
Unfortunately, this comes to an end Sunday night as a cold front
from the aforementioned PacNW trough moves thru the area, w/fropa at
KMAF at around 23Z Sun. Latest ECMWF is faster, but w/fronts
weakening as Spring progresses, and diurnal heating Sunday
afternoon, the front will probably stall for a few hrs Sunday
afternoon to the north. This should take temps back down to around
normal Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile, a secondary trough will make landfall in SoCal/Nrn Baja
and approach the region, transitioning flow aloft to SW Monday.
Monday night and Tuesday, the trough will move thru the region,
w/the GFS slightly faster/shallower than the ECMWF/DGEX/CMC. W/the
50 deg isodrosotherm forecast to be west of mid-CWA by 06Z Tuesday,
this will be our best shot at rain this forecast. Forecast
soundings of the lwr Trans Pecos develop SBCapes in excess of 1000
J/kg, w/PWATs of around 1", or 3 std devs abv normal. Attm, shear
looks lousy w/the arrival of the trough, but wet-bulb zero heights
will be favorable for a marginal hail threat.
Otherwise, a gradual warmup follows the trough under zonal flow
aloft, w/flat, dirty ridging in place, w/temps above-normal into the
extended.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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520
FXUS64 KMAF 272323
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 00z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
mostly be light out of the south to southwest before becoming
westerly to northwesterly Saturday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows a broad ridge over the western CONUS, leaving West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft. SW sfc flow has
allowed afternoon temps to rebound to near-normal, w/a couple of
degrees left to go.
Upper ridge will begin breaking down and nudging east over the next
24 hours in response to a trough making landfall in the PacNW.
However, heights/thicknesses will continue increasing thru Sunday as
the ridge moves overhead, resulting in well-abv normal temps
Sat/Sun, w/Sun especially feeling like late May. However, despite
this, guidance seems a bit warm, w/diurnal spreads to big, perhaps
because both the NAM and GFS initialized too dry on sfc Td.
Forecast soundings and H85 temps suggest staying on the lower end.
Even so, temps should be the warmest yet this spring, w/an elevated
fire danger Saturday from the Guadalupes to the Davis/Apache Mtns.
Unfortunately, this comes to an end Sunday night as a cold front
from the aforementioned PacNW trough moves thru the area, w/fropa at
KMAF at around 23Z Sun. Latest ECMWF is faster, but w/fronts
weakening as Spring progresses, and diurnal heating Sunday
afternoon, the front will probably stall for a few hrs Sunday
afternoon to the north. This should take temps back down to around
normal Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile, a secondary trough will make landfall in SoCal/Nrn Baja
and approach the region, transitioning flow aloft to SW Monday.
Monday night and Tuesday, the trough will move thru the region,
w/the GFS slightly faster/shallower than the ECMWF/DGEX/CMC. W/the
50 deg isodrosotherm forecast to be west of mid-CWA by 06Z Tuesday,
this will be our best shot at rain this forecast. Forecast
soundings of the lwr Trans Pecos develop SBCapes in excess of 1000
J/kg, w/PWATs of around 1", or 3 std devs abv normal. Attm, shear
looks lousy w/the arrival of the trough, but wet-bulb zero heights
will be favorable for a marginal hail threat.
Otherwise, a gradual warmup follows the trough under zonal flow
aloft, w/flat, dirty ridging in place, w/temps above-normal into the
extended.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
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178
FXUS64 KMAF 271955
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows a broad ridge over the western CONUS, leaving West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under NW flow aloft. SW sfc flow has
allowed afternoon temps to rebound to near-normal, w/a couple of
degrees left to go.
Upper ridge will begin breaking down and nudging east over the next
24 hours in response to a trough making landfall in the PacNW.
However, heights/thicknesses will continue increasing thru Sunday as
the ridge moves overhead, resulting in well-abv normal temps Sat/Sun,
w/Sun especially feeling like late May. However, despite this,
guidance seems a bit warm, w/diurnal spreads to big, perhaps because
both the NAM and GFS initialized too dry on sfc Td. Forecast
soundings and H85 temps suggest staying on the lower end. Even so,
temps should be the warmest yet this spring, w/an elevated fire
danger Saturday from the Guadalupes to the Davis/Apache
Mtns.
Unfortunately, this comes to an end Sunday night as a cold front
from the aforementioned PacNW trough moves thru the area, w/fropa at
KMAF at around 23Z Sun. Latest ECMWF is faster, but w/fronts
weakening as Spring progresses, and diurnal heating Sunday
afternoon, the front will probably stall for a few hrs Sunday
afternoon to the north. This should take temps back down to around
normal Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile, a secondary trough will make landfall in SoCal/Nrn Baja
and approach the region, transitioning flow aloft to SW Monday.
Monday night and Tuesday, the trough will move thru the region,
w/the GFS slightly faster/shallower than the ECMWF/DGEX/CMC. W/the
50 deg isodrosotherm forecast to be west of mid-CWA by 06Z Tuesday,
this will be our best shot at rain this forecast. Forecast
soundings of the lwr Trans Pecos develop SBCapes in excess of 1000
J/kg, w/PWATs of around 1", or 3 std devs abv normal. Attm, shear
looks lousy w/the arrival of the trough, but wet-bulb zero heights
will be favorable for a marginal hail threat.
Otherwise, a gradual warmup follows the trough under zonal flow
aloft, w/flat, dirty ridging in place, w/temps above-normal into the
extended.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 48 88 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 49 89 51 92 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 47 86 45 86 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 49 88 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 54 92 54 93 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 56 80 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 45 87 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 35 81 40 83 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 47 89 50 91 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 49 88 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 45 90 46 91 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29/44
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133
FXUS64 KMAF 271704
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions under clear skies with light winds.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
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336
FXUS64 KMAF 271100
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Mostly clear skies and light southwest winds the next 24 hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool temps tonight with surface high
pressure in place. Dry NW flow aloft will continue today with an
upper trough to the east and upper ridging to the west. At the
surface, lee troughing will extend southward through eastern NM
today and downsloping SW winds at the surface will become more
established areawide. As a result, afternoon high temperatures will
rebound to the upper 70s and 80s.
Upper ridging (to the west) and 850mb thermal ridge will shift
eastward Saturday, allowing temps to warm to the upper 80s to near
90 across the CWA. Could see the same for Sunday, however models
suggest a cold front may affect highs depending on timing of the
northerly wind shift. As of now, the front looks to enter northern
zones Sunday evening so we have a good chance of at least warming
into the 80s most areas and 90s south near the Rio Grande. Will
continue to monitor the arrival time of the front for any
adjustments to the highs in future forecast packages. Conditions
will be slightly cooler on Monday.
Still not expecting any precip with the initial frontal passage
however an eastward moving upper disturbance (advertised by the
GFS and ECMWF) may provide some support for thunderstorm
development Monday night and Tuesday. Confidence is increasing
regarding thunderstorm chances but still a little uncertain of the
outcome so will continue with fairly low PoPs for now. Beyond
Tuesday, dry conditions and above normal temperatures return under
zonal flow aloft.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10
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555
FXUS64 KMAF 270815
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
315 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool temps tonight with surface high
pressure in place. Dry NW flow aloft will continue today with an
upper trough to the east and upper ridging to the west. At the
surface, lee troughing will extend southward through eastern NM
today and downsloping SW winds at the surface will become more
established areawide. As a result, afternoon high temperatures will
rebound to the upper 70s and 80s.
Upper ridging (to the west) and 850mb thermal ridge will shift
eastward Saturday, allowing temps to warm to the upper 80s to near
90 across the CWA. Could see the same for Sunday, however models
suggest a cold front may affect highs depending on timing of the
northerly wind shift. As of now, the front looks to enter northern
zones Sunday evening so we have a good chance of at least warming
into the 80s most areas and 90s south near the Rio Grande. Will
continue to monitor the arrival time of the front for any
adjustments to the highs in future forecast packages. Conditions
will be slightly cooler on Monday.
Still not expecting any precip with the initial frontal passage
however an eastward moving upper disturbance (advertised by the
GFS and ECMWF) may provide some support for thunderstorm
development Monday night and Tuesday. Confidence is increasing
regarding thunderstorm chances but still a little uncertain of the
outcome so will continue with fairly low PoPs for now. Beyond
Tuesday, dry conditions and above normal temperatures return under
zonal flow aloft.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 80 48 87 50 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 81 49 89 53 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 81 45 88 49 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 79 50 88 52 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 83 55 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 73 52 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 79 45 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 74 36 82 42 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 81 50 89 51 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 81 50 89 52 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 83 46 89 47 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10/27
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148
FXUS64 KMAF 270502
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1202 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR and light southwest winds through the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/
A nice and quiet weekend is expected with a dry northwesterly flow
aloft regime in place. Much above normal temperatures are expected
for most areas due to the formation of surface lee troughing with
downslope flow and mostly clear skies.
An upper level trough digging across the the plains will push
a cold front south into the forecast area either Sunday or
Monday. Obviously this front could impact the high temperature
forecast for Sunday, so later shifts will need to monitor.
Either way temperatures will only get bumped back to near
normal values by Monday. A weak and quick southern stream Pacific
storm system looks in the offing late Monday resulting in a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Behind this system zonal flow is forecast with much above normal
temperatures developing again next Tuesday through Thursday as
another surface lee trough forms with downslope and low
level thermal ridging anticipated.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10
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806
FXUS64 KMAF 262316
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/
A nice and quiet weekend is expected with a dry northwesterly flow
aloft regime in place. Much above normal temperatures are expected
for most areas due to the formation of surface lee troughing with
downslope flow and mostly clear skies.
An upper level trough digging across the the plains will push
a cold front south into the forecast area either Sunday or
Monday. Obviously this front could impact the high temperature
forecast for Sunday, so later shifts will need to monitor.
Either way temperatures will only get bumped back to near
normal values by Monday. A weak and quick southern stream Pacific
storm system looks in the offing late Monday resulting in a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Behind this system zonal flow is forecast with much above normal
temperatures developing again next Tuesday through Thursday as
another surface lee trough forms with downslope and low
level thermal ridging anticipated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 42 81 48 88 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 44 81 48 91 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 39 81 43 89 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 43 79 50 91 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 45 83 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 44 73 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 39 78 45 86 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 28 75 33 83 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 43 80 47 88 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 44 81 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 39 84 46 90 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44/12
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481
FXUS64 KMAF 261923
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A nice and quiet weekend is expected with a dry northwesterly flow
aloft regime in place. Much above normal temperatures are expected
for most areas due to the formation of surface lee troughing with
downslope flow and mostly clear skies.
An upper level trough digging across the the plains will push
a cold front south into the forecast area either Sunday or
Monday. Obviously this front could impact the high temperature
forecast for Sunday, so later shifts will need to monitor.
Either way temperatures will only get bumped back to near
normal values by Monday. A weak and quick southern stream Pacific
storm system looks in the offing late Monday resulting in a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Behind this system zonal flow is forecast with much above normal
temperatures developing again next Tuesday through Thursday as
another surface lee trough forms with downslope and low
level thermal ridging anticipated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 42 81 48 88 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 44 81 48 91 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 39 81 43 89 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 43 79 50 91 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 45 83 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 44 73 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 39 78 45 86 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 28 75 33 83 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 43 80 47 88 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 44 81 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 39 84 46 90 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44/12
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194
FXUS64 KMAF 261713
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours...after MVFR cigs sctter
out at KFST. Northerly flow will back to the SW.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A cold front has pushed south through the region fairly quickly
tonight with gusty north winds persisting areawide. Although winds
are fairly strong, most locations are below Wind Advisory
criteria and we don`t expect winds to come back up. As a result,
went ahead and cancelled the Wind Advisory. High winds through
Guadalupe Pass will continue through mid morning and a High Wind
Warning remains for this location. Winds will diminish through the
morning hours as the surface pressure gradient relaxes and a
surface ridge settles into the area. High temperatures will be
about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings in the 60s
most places.
Dry NW flow aloft will develop today as an upper trough moves east
of the region. At the surface, lee troughing will develop by Friday
resulting in the return of downsloping SW winds at the surface. This
will allow temperatures to rebound to the 70s and 80s Friday and
Saturday. Upper ridging and warmer 850mb temps will shift eastward
Sunday and highs will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s across the
region. The warm/dry pattern looks to be interrupted early next week
with the passage of a weak cold front that will knock temps back
into the 70s and low 80s for Monday. As of now, not expecting any
precip with the initial arrival of the cold front however an
eastward moving upper disturbance may provide some support for
thunderstorm development Monday night and Tuesday. Still quite a bit
of disagreement amongst the forecast models regarding the exact
strength and track of this system so slight chance PoPs look good
for now.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
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226
FXUS64 KMAF 261514
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1014 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015
.UPDATE...
Current ob at KGDP shows winds just under criteria, w/latest
models indicating pressure gradients relaxing into this afternoon.
We`ll do a quick update to remove the High Wind Warning from the
grids, and freshen up other parameters as necessary. Updates out shortly.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
North winds will continue subsiding today, becoming light and
shifting from the southwest after 00Z. Near MVFR CIGs are
developing across the area this morning but should only persist
for a couple of hours before dissipating or moving southeast.
Hennig
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A cold front has pushed south through the region fairly quickly
tonight with gusty north winds persisting areawide. Although winds
are fairly strong, most locations are below Wind Advisory
criteria and we don`t expect winds to come back up. As a result,
went ahead and cancelled the Wind Advisory. High winds through
Guadalupe Pass will continue through mid morning and a High Wind
Warning remains for this location. Winds will diminish through the
morning hours as the surface pressure gradient relaxes and a
surface ridge settles into the area. High temperatures will be
about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings in the 60s
most places.
Dry NW flow aloft will develop today as an upper trough moves east
of the region. At the surface, lee troughing will develop by Friday
resulting in the return of downsloping SW winds at the surface. This
will allow temperatures to rebound to the 70s and 80s Friday and
Saturday. Upper ridging and warmer 850mb temps will shift eastward
Sunday and highs will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s across the
region. The warm/dry pattern looks to be interrupted early next week
with the passage of a weak cold front that will knock temps back
into the 70s and low 80s for Monday. As of now, not expecting any
precip with the initial arrival of the cold front however an
eastward moving upper disturbance may provide some support for
thunderstorm development Monday night and Tuesday. Still quite a bit
of disagreement amongst the forecast models regarding the exact
strength and track of this system so slight chance PoPs look good
for now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 64 41 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 43 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 65 38 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 69 44 79 48 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 62 43 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 58 43 73 51 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 63 39 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 61 31 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 41 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 64 43 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 65 38 81 45 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44/12
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432
FXUS64 KMAF 261116
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
North winds will continue subsiding today, becoming light and
shifting from the southwest after 00Z. Near MVFR CIGs are
developing across the area this morning but should only persist
for a couple of hours before dissipating or moving southeast.
Hennig
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A cold front has pushed south through the region fairly quickly
tonight with gusty north winds persisting areawide. Although winds
are fairly strong, most locations are below Wind Advisory
criteria and we don`t expect winds to come back up. As a result,
went ahead and cancelled the Wind Advisory. High winds through
Guadalupe Pass will continue through mid morning and a High Wind
Warning remains for this location. Winds will diminish through the
morning hours as the surface pressure gradient relaxes and a
surface ridge settles into the area. High temperatures will be
about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings in the 60s
most places.
Dry NW flow aloft will develop today as an upper trough moves east
of the region. At the surface, lee troughing will develop by Friday
resulting in the return of downsloping SW winds at the surface. This
will allow temperatures to rebound to the 70s and 80s Friday and
Saturday. Upper ridging and warmer 850mb temps will shift eastward
Sunday and highs will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s across the
region. The warm/dry pattern looks to be interrupted early next week
with the passage of a weak cold front that will knock temps back
into the 70s and low 80s for Monday. As of now, not expecting any
precip with the initial arrival of the cold front however an
eastward moving upper disturbance may provide some support for
thunderstorm development Monday night and Tuesday. Still quite a bit
of disagreement amongst the forecast models regarding the exact
strength and track of this system so slight chance PoPs look good
for now.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
10
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662
FXUS64 KMAF 260819
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
319 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A cold front has pushed south through the region fairly quickly
tonight with gusty north winds persisting areawide. Although winds
are fairly strong, most locations are below Wind Advisory
criteria and we don`t expect winds to come back up. As a result,
went ahead and cancelled the Wind Advisory. High winds through
Guadalupe Pass will continue through mid morning and a High Wind
Warning remains for this location. Winds will diminish through the
morning hours as the surface pressure gradient relaxes and a
surface ridge settles into the area. High temperatures will be
about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings in the 60s
most places.
Dry NW flow aloft will develop today as an upper trough moves east
of the region. At the surface, lee troughing will develop by Friday
resulting in the return of downsloping SW winds at the surface. This
will allow temperatures to rebound to the 70s and 80s Friday and
Saturday. Upper ridging and warmer 850mb temps will shift eastward
Sunday and highs will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s across the
region. The warm/dry pattern looks to be interrupted early next week
with the passage of a weak cold front that will knock temps back
into the 70s and low 80s for Monday. As of now, not expecting any
precip with the initial arrival of the cold front however an
eastward moving upper disturbance may provide some support for
thunderstorm development Monday night and Tuesday. Still quite a bit
of disagreement amongst the forecast models regarding the exact
strength and track of this system so slight chance PoPs look good
for now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 64 41 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 43 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 65 38 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 69 44 79 48 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 62 43 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 58 43 73 51 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 63 39 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 61 31 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 41 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 64 43 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 65 38 81 45 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
10/27
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721
FXUS64 KMAF 260531
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
A cold front will bring gusty north winds to the TAF sites the
next 6 hours. BLDU will restrict visibilities mainly at MAF and
possibly INK through 08Z before winds diminish some and VIS
improves. MVFR CIGs showing on ASOS observations are not real, but
blowing dust being mistakenly reported as CIG so it has not been
included in any TAFs. Winds will be much lighter after 12Z
becoming southerly late in the TAF period.
Hennig
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Strong cold front currently across the Texas Panhandle will
quickly plunge south overnight and be well south of the region
in Mexico by sunrise Thursday morning. Consensus progged surface
pressure gradient suggest that the stronger mav guidance winds
look more reasonable tonight. Will issue a Wind Advisory for
southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas tonight except the
Presidio Valley. Will continue the High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Pass of west Texas tonight through mid Thursday morning
and increase wind speeds by 10 mph. In addition Low level
convergence along the advancing front with some forcing from the
upper trough could spark some showers and thunderstorms across the
extreme eastern Permian Basin in the deeper moisture. Due to the
expected winds will include areas of blowing dust across all of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool Thursday
high temperatures will climb to much above normal values again by
Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope flow
and mostly clear skies expected.
A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected at this time
next Monday night and Tuesday. Near to above normal temperatures
are expected early next week.
FIRE WEATHER...
Very warm this afternoon as temperatures have climbed into the 80s.
This has combined with dry conditions over some parts of the area to
produce rh values below 15 percent. West winds in the 10 to 20 mph
range have produced near critical conditions across SE NM... the
Trans Pecos... and Western Permian Basin. A check of area RAWS
sites show 20ft winds near but below 20 mph range but localized Red
Flag conditions are possible. A Fire Danger Statement remains in
effect for these areas. Wind speeds should begin to decrease
by late afternoon. A strong cold front will blow through the region
tonight with a gusty north wind with 20ft winds exceeded 20 mph but
rh values will be increasing as moisture increases and temperatures
fall. Cooler temperatures and higher rh expected tomorrow.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
Lea County.
TX...WIND ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane...
Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...
Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and
Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.
HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
10
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441
FXUS64 KMAF 252346
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
646 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Dry, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A
cold front is currently moving south through eastern New Mexico
and the Texas Panhandle, expected to reach KHOB and KCNM by
02-03Z, KMAF and KINK by around 04Z, KPEQ by 05Z, and finally KFST
by 06Z. Winds will shift to the north and increase, with gusts
over 30kt possible. The gusts will gradually diminish through
Thursday morning, though breezy conditions could continue into the
afternoon, particularly for KMAF and KFST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Strong cold front currently across the Texas Panhandle will
quickly plunge south overnight and be well south of the region
in Mexico by sunrise Thursday morning. Consensus progged surface
pressure gradient suggest that the stronger mav guidance winds
look more reasonable tonight. Will issue a Wind Advisory for
southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas tonight except the
Presidio Valley. Will continue the High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Pass of west Texas tonight through mid Thursday morning
and increase wind speeds by 10 mph. In addition Low level
convergence along the advancing front with some forcing from the
upper trough could spark some showers and thunderstorms across the
extreme eastern Permian Basin in the deeper moisture. Due to the
expected winds will include areas of blowing dust across all of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool Thursday
high temperatures will climb to much above normal values again by
Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope flow
and mostly clear skies expected.
A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected at this time
next Monday night and Tuesday. Near to above normal temperatures
are expected early next week.
FIRE WEATHER...
Very warm this afternoon as temperatures have climbed into the 80s.
This has combined with dry conditions over some parts of the area to
produce rh values below 15 percent. West winds in the 10 to 20 mph
range have produced near critical conditions across SE NM... the
Trans Pecos... and Western Permian Basin. A check of area RAWS
sites show 20ft winds near but below 20 mph range but localized Red
Flag conditions are possible. A Fire Danger Statement remains in
effect for these areas. Wind speeds should begin to decrease
by late afternoon. A strong cold front will blow through the region
tonight with a gusty north wind with 20ft winds exceeded 20 mph but
rh values will be increasing as moisture increases and temperatures
fall. Cooler temperatures and higher rh expected tomorrow.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
Lea County.
TX...WIND ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.
WIND ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Thursday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains
Area...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Terrell.
HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
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561
FXUS64 KMAF 251953
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
253 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Strong cold front currently across the Texas Panhandle will
quickly plunge south overnight and be well south of the region
in Mexico by sunrise Thursday morning. Consensus progged surface
pressure gradient suggest that the stronger mav guidance winds
look more reasonable tonight. Will issue a Wind Advisory for
southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas tonight except the
Presidio Valley. Will continue the High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Pass of west Texas tonight through mid Thursday morning
and increase wind speeds by 10 mph. In addition Low level
convergence along the advancing front with some forcing from the
upper trough could spark some showers and thunderstorms across the
extreme eastern Permian Basin in the deeper moisture. Due to the
expected winds will include areas of blowing dust across all of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool Thursday
high temperatures will climb to much above normal values again by
Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope flow
and mostly clear skies expected.
A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected at this time
next Monday night and Tuesday. Near to above normal temperatures
are expected early next week.
FIRE WEATHER...
Very warm this afternoon as temperatures have climbed into the 80s.
This has combined with dry conditions over some parts of the area to
produce rh values below 15 percent. West winds in the 10 to 20 mph
range have produced near critical conditions across SE NM... the
Trans Pecos... and Western Permian Basin. A check of area RAWS
sites show 20ft winds near but below 20 mph range but localized Red
Flag conditions are possible. A Fire Danger Statement remains in
effect for these areas. Wind speeds should begin to decrease
by late afternoon. A strong cold front will blow through the region
tonight with a gusty north wind with 20ft winds exceeded 20 mph but
rh values will be increasing as moisture increases and temperatures
fall. Cooler temperatures and higher rh expected tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 41 63 42 79 / 10 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 43 63 42 79 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 43 66 34 80 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 51 67 43 80 / 20 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 45 63 45 80 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 38 58 43 73 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 39 63 38 78 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 39 59 28 73 / 10 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 42 63 40 79 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 42 64 42 79 / 10 0 0 0
WINK TX 44 65 39 81 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM MDT Thursday FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
County...Southern Lea County.
TX...WIND ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Thursday FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
Midland...Mitchell...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
Ward...Winkler.
WIND ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Thursday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains
Area...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Terrell.
HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
72/12
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379
FXUS64 KMAF 251735
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
West wind has begun to pick up as the wind aloft mixes down. CNM
has highest wind so far but this should spread east to other TAF
sites. Wind should decrease late afternoon/early evening before a
strong cold front blows into the area tonight with a very gusty
north wind... gusts to 30kts or more possible as is blowing dust.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Current satellite shows an upper level trough over northern
Wyoming. This trough will move into the Central Plains today
increasing westerly winds and pushing drier air across most of the
area. This dry air and clear skies will send highs today well
above normal reaching the mid 80s for many locations.
The upper trough will move east tonight sending a cold front south
arriving in the Permian Basin around sunset. Winds behind the
front will shift from the northeast and become very windy for a
short period before quickly diminishing early Thursday morning.
Sustained wind speeds may exceed 30 mph briefly tonight but the
duration is not expected to be long enough to warrant the issuance
of an advisory at this time. Winds at Guadalupe Pass will become
strong and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a warning.
Thursday will be around 20 degrees cooler and a very pleasant day
as winds continue to diminish. An upper level ridge over the
western U.S. will move east over the weekend and dampen, bringing
a return of westerly mid and upper level flow. This will cause
temperatures to warm back up above normal with Saturday and Sunday
providing good BBQ weather.
Models continue to show an upper level low approaching Texas and
New Mexico early next week. The GFS and ECMWF continue to handle
the location of this feature differently though the ECMWF seems to
be trending more towards the GFS solution of a southerly track
across southern California and along the U.S./Mexico border. The
Canadian GEM also agrees with this southerly track. The main
difference between these models is the strength of the low. The
GFS is strongest and thus shows better rain chances than the other
models. Will continue the slight chance PoPs during this time
period and will wait for better agreement before making any
significant PoP changes.
Hennig
FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will increase from the west today as a surface low deepens
just NE of the CWA. In addition, above normal temps and very dry
conditions will result in afternoon minimum relative humidities
near 10-15 percent most areas. With 20 foot winds approaching or
exceeding critical thresholds across most locations, elevated to
near critical fire weather concerns can be expected. Greatest
concern will be across the Guadalupe Mountains, where low end Red
Flag conditions will be possible for 3-4 hours at the most.
Confidence is not high enough to go with a Red Flag Warning so
will handle the Guadalupes as well as southeast NM and much of
west TX with a Fire Danger Statement. Fire weather concerns will
diminish this evening as relative humidities increase above
critical values.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
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609
FXUS64 KMAF 251116
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hour is brief gusty winds
behind a strong cold front tonight. Otherwise...VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Light southerly winds this morning will
quickly increase from the west to 15-18kt sustained, gusting to
25-27kt by the afternoon. Winds will diminish for a couple of hours
this evening before a strong cold front arrives around 26/03Z at
CNM, HOB, INK and MAF then FST and PEQ by 26/04Z. Expect north winds
near 20-25kt sustained and gusts near 30-35kt. Occasionally higher
wind speeds will be possible. Low visibilities due to BLDU is
definitely possible but will hold off on mention in the TAF for
now.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Current satellite shows an upper level trough over northern
Wyoming. This trough will move into the Central Plains today
increasing westerly winds and pushing drier air across most of the
area. This dry air and clear skies will send highs today well
above normal reaching the mid 80s for many locations.
The upper trough will move east tonight sending a cold front south
arriving in the Permian Basin around sunset. Winds behind the
front will shift from the northeast and become very windy for a
short period before quickly diminishing early Thursday morning.
Sustained wind speeds may exceed 30 mph briefly tonight but the
duration is not expected to be long enough to warrant the issuance
of an advisory at this time. Winds at Guadalupe Pass will become
strong and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a warning.
Thursday will be around 20 degrees cooler and a very pleasant day
as winds continue to diminish. An upper level ridge over the
western U.S. will move east over the weekend and dampen, bringing
a return of westerly mid and upper level flow. This will cause
temperatures to warm back up above normal with Saturday and Sunday
providing good BBQ weather.
Models continue to show an upper level low approaching Texas and
New Mexico early next week. The GFS and ECMWF continue to handle
the location of this feature differently though the ECMWF seems to
be trending more towards the GFS solution of a southerly track
across southern California and along the U.S./Mexico border. The
Canadian GEM also agrees with this southerly track. The main
difference between these models is the strength of the low. The
GFS is strongest and thus shows better rain chances than the other
models. Will continue the slight chance PoPs during this time
period and will wait for better agreement before making any
significant PoP changes.
Hennig
FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will increase from the west today as a surface low deepens
just NE of the CWA. In addition, above normal temps and very dry
conditions will result in afternoon minimum relative humidities
near 10-15 percent most areas. With 20 foot winds approaching or
exceeding critical thresholds across most locations, elevated to
near critical fire weather concerns can be expected. Greatest
concern will be across the Guadalupe Mountains, where low end Red
Flag conditions will be possible for 3-4 hours at the most.
Confidence is not high enough to go with a Red Flag Warning so
will handle the Guadalupes as well as southeast NM and much of
west TX with a Fire Danger Statement. Fire weather concerns will
diminish this evening as relative humidities increase above
critical values.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
27
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736
FXUS64 KMAF 250922
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
422 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Current satellite shows an upper level trough over northern
Wyoming. This trough will move into the Central Plains today
increasing westerly winds and pushing drier air across most of the
area. This dry air and clear skies will send highs today well
above normal reaching the mid 80s for many locations.
The upper trough will move east tonight sending a cold front south
arriving in the Permian Basin around sunset. Winds behind the
front will shift from the northeast and become very windy for a
short period before quickly diminishing early Thursday morning.
Sustained wind speeds may exceed 30 mph briefly tonight but the
duration is not expected to be long enough to warrant the issuance
of an advisory at this time. Winds at Guadalupe Pass will become
strong and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a warning.
Thursday will be around 20 degrees cooler and a very pleasant day
as winds continue to diminish. An upper level ridge over the
western U.S. will move east over the weekend and dampen, bringing
a return of westerly mid and upper level flow. This will cause
temperatures to warm back up above normal with Saturday and Sunday
providing good BBQ weather.
Models continue to show an upper level low approaching Texas and
New Mexico early next week. The GFS and ECMWF continue to handle
the location of this feature differently though the ECMWF seems to
be trending more towards the GFS solution of a southerly track
across southern California and along the U.S./Mexico border. The
Canadian GEM also agrees with this southerly track. The main
difference between these models is the strength of the low. The
GFS is strongest and thus shows better rain chances than the other
models. Will continue the slight chance PoPs during this time
period and will wait for better agreement before making any
significant PoP changes.
Hennig
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will increase from the west today as a surface low deepens
just NE of the CWA. In addition, above normal temps and very dry
conditions will result in afternoon minimum relative humidities
near 10-15 percent most areas. With 20 foot winds approaching or
exceeding critical thresholds across most locations, elevated to
near critical fire weather concerns can be expected. Greatest
concern will be across the Guadalupe Mountains, where low end Red
Flag conditions will be possible for 3-4 hours at the most.
Confidence is not high enough to go with a Red Flag Warning so
will handle the Guadalupes as well as southeast NM and much of
west TX with a Fire Danger Statement. Fire weather concerns will
diminish this evening as relative humidities increase above
critical values.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 84 41 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 87 43 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 82 43 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 88 51 68 44 / 10 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 85 45 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 74 38 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 81 39 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 77 39 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 85 42 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 85 42 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 85 44 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
27/10
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388
FXUS64 KMAF 250507
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hour, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Light southerly winds overnight will
increase from the west to 15-18kt sustained and gusting to 25-30kt
during the afternoon. A strong cold front will arrive around 26/03Z
at CNM, HOB, INK and MAF then FST and PEQ just beyond this TAF
period. Behind the front, expect north winds near 20-25kt sustained
and gusts near 30-35kt. Low visibilities due to BLDU is definitely
possible but will hold off on mention in the TAF for now.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft will continue through tomorrow resulting in
continued much above normal temperatures. Dryline will surge east
from the eastern slopes of the mountains to the Concho Valley and
Big Country by late tomorrow afternoon. Behind the dryline breezy
westerly winds will develop in areas with very windy conditions
expected in the Guadalupe Mountains. Low level thermal ridging and
downslope flow will allow temperatures to climb to much above
normal Wednesday afternoon. Large upper level trough moving across
the mid section of the country will drop a cold front south into
the forecast area Wednesday night. Low level convergence along the
front with some forcing from the upper trough could spark isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the extreme eastern Permian Basin
in the deeper moisture. Strong surface pressure gradient behind
the front will produce very windy conditions with high winds
possible through Guadalupe Pass. Will issue a High Wind Watch for
that location Wednesday night through mid Thursday morning. In
addition a wind advisory may be needed for portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and or west Texas. Have also added patchy
blowing dust for areas mainly north of the Pecos River.
Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool
Thursday high temperatures will climb to above normal again
by Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope
flow and mostly clear skies expected.
A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected
at this time next Monday and Tuesday. Above normal temperatures
are also expected to continue.
FIRE WEATHER...
Unseasonably warm temperatures expected again Wednesday will result
in minimum rh values of 15 percent or less across SE NM and most of
W TX. Much of this area received beneficial rain the past week
lowering the fire danger... but not much fell across Eddy and
Culberson counties. The wind will be out of the west tomorrow
and 20ft wind speeds are expected to be higher with some locations
reaching the 15 to 20 mph range. This will result in elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions... especially for the
Guadalupe Mountains... Delaware Mountains... and surrounding plains.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
27
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118
FXUS64 KMAF 242320
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Dry, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
WSW winds will remain aob 12KT tonight, but will increase on
Wednesday afternoon, gusting to 20-30KT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft will continue through tomorrow resulting in
continued much above normal temperatures. Dryline will surge east
from the eastern slopes of the mountains to the Concho Valley and
Big Country by late tomorrow afternoon. Behind the dryline breezy
westerly winds will develop in areas with very windy conditions
expected in the Guadalupe Mountains. Low level thermal ridging and
downslope flow will allow temperatures to climb to much above
normal Wednesday afternoon. Large upper level trough moving across
the mid section of the country will drop a cold front south into
the forecast area Wednesday night. Low level convergence along the
front with some forcing from the upper trough could spark isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the extreme eastern Permian Basin
in the deeper moisture. Strong surface pressure gradient behind
the front will produce very windy conditions with high winds
possible through Guadalupe Pass. Will issue a High Wind Watch for
that location Wednesday night through mid Thursday morning. In
addition a wind advisory may be needed for portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and or west Texas. Have also added patchy
blowing dust for areas mainly north of the Pecos River.
Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool
Thursday high temperatures will climb to above normal again
by Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope
flow and mostly clear skies expected.
A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected
at this time next Monday and Tuesday. Above normal temperatures
are also expected to continue.
FIRE WEATHER...
Unseasonably warm temperatures expected again Wednesday will result
in minimum rh values of 15 percent or less across SE NM and most of
W TX. Much of this area received beneficial rain the past week
lowering the fire danger... but not much fell across Eddy and
Culberson counties. The wind will be out of the west tomorrow
and 20ft wind speeds are expected to be higher with some locations
reaching the 15 to 20 mph range. This will result in elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions... especially for the
Guadalupe Mountains... Delaware Mountains... and surrounding plains.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
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