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NFL Picks

NFL Picks: Game-by-Game ATS Betting Guide for Week 11

We sift through week 11 NFL betting lines across various sportsbook platforms and serve up the best NFL picks against the spread for all 14 matchups.

Week 10 Recap ATS NFL Picks:
For a third straight week we break even with our ATS NFL picks, but it was a rather topsy-turvy week all around. Road teams went a staggering 11-3 SU and underdogs edged favorites 11-3 SU. Against the spread, home teams were 4-10 to away teams and favorites were 2-12 ATS to underdogs. It’s any wonder we came out of it unscathed and finished with a 7-7 ATS mark. Overall, we improve to 73-70-3 on the season.

Here we go through the entire week’s serving of 14 games and offer up our choice NFL picks from various sports betting platforms.

Titans vs. Jaguars
Not being funny but the AFC South showdown between the Titans and Jaguars actually matters towards the divisional picture and has playoff implications. Bet that’s not something most NFL bettors expected when the NFL schedule was released. As it is, the Jaguars are just two wins behind the joint-tandem of Colts and Texans (each 4-5 SU) and the Titans are two wins back. Therefore, the premium on the W in this game couldn’t be any greater. That has us thinking both sides will be playing hard for the win, keeping this game close. Appropriately, it’s trading on a field goal line (or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice) with the Jaguars favoured at home. Jaguars are 5-4 ATS on the season with a 7-point losing margin but they have a negative 2.3-point differential on average against the spread. They’ve kept games close for the most part, including last week’s improbable 22-20 win over the Ravens. Titans are 4-5 ATS with a 5-point losing margin and a negative 2.4-point differential against the spread.

Evidently, this game could go either way. We like the Jaguars to cover and if you shop carefully you can still find a 2.5-point line trading on this game with a slightly higher juice of -115, which is where we’re putting our money. Then again, if you’re willing to concede another half-point for a 3-point line and a better juice of +100 then go to 5Dimes.

Cowboys vs. Dolphins
The Cowboys are hoping the return of Tony Romo salvages whatever remnants of their season. Cowboys are 2-7 SU and ATS on the season with a 5.3-point losing margin. The Dolphins are coming off an upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles in week 10 NFL betting, coming from behind to clinch the 20-19 win. That said they had no business winning that game. The Eagles needed but a field goal to win the game, but Mark Sanchez decides he’s going to win it with his arm. Yup, that rather bonehead decision didn’t go down very well and ended up costing the Eagles the pivotal W. NFL betting lines range anywhere from 1.5-points to Even, with the Dolphins to the good at home. There’s bound to be rust and a lack of game hardiness, but Romo is the consummate competitor. He can revive the Cowboys in this game.

Broncos vs. Bears
John Fox has the Bears playing really well right now and they return to Soldier Field riding a two-game road winning streak. Now, all they need to do is transcend a 1-3 SU and ATS record at home, which includes an 8.5-point losing margin and a negative 5.5-point differential against the spread. This was supposed to be a reunion between Peyton Manning and Fox, but it’s not looking so anymore with the veteran quarterback sporting a whole slew of injuries. Brock Osweiler is to get his first start of the season and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Broncos have lost their last two games to slip to 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS with a 4.1-point winning margin and need to get back on track. Crucially, they are a plus 1.4-points against the spread.

With the unknown Brock Osweiler leading Gary Kubiak’s offense onto the field it’s difficult to predict this game. Obviously, it’s enough to send Denver into this game as the decisive underdogs, which is telling. By that same token, Broncos’ head coach isn’t going to risk a chance on Osweiler if he weren’t confident the kid could deliver. Right? Keep in mind, this is still a good defensive team as well. Call us sentimental, but writing them off seems a bit premature so we’re taking the points with the Broncos on our NFL picks with a thank you very much.

Colts vs. Falcons
It’s somewhat surprising that the Falcons are 6-point home faves in this game. Granted the Colts will be fielding Matt Hasselbeck in relief for an injured Andrew Luck, but the backup starter is a perfect 2-0 SU in relief already this season. What’s more, the Falcons haven’t blown anybody off the field by a touchdown since the 48-21 win over the Texans in the first week of October. They’ve been struggling of late, winning just one of their last four games – an ugly 10-7 win over the Titans. Most recently, they are riding a two-game losing streak with narrow losses to Tampa Bay and San Francisco. If the Falcons can’t beat some of the lightweights in the league this season how can we trust them with that many points?

Jets vs. Texans
The quarterback headaches involved in both camps make this a tough NFL pick right now. To begin with, things are getting more complicated on the quarterback front in Houston. If the Ryan Mallet brouhaha wasn’t enough, Brian Hoyer is now out with a concussion sustained in the winning account on Monday Night Football against the Bengals. It’s worth mentioning that Hoyer didn’t have his best game, nor did he threw the game-winning touchdown. That goes to backup T.J. Yates, who’s getting the start in this game. What’s more, the Texans picked up Cowboys’ castoff Brandon Weeden this week to fulfil the backup role.

On other hand, you have Ryan Fitzpatrick returning to Houston to face his former Texans teammates. The veteran quarterback is expected to start this game despite undergoing surgery on his non-throwing hand. If he does, the Jets should be in good stead. They’ve had reliable quarterback play from the veteran, he has plenty of offensive weapons and the defense is nothing to sniff at, all of which has us leaning towards the Jets on our NFL picks. If for any reason he doesn’t start and Geno Smith fills in well we’re taking our money back.

Raiders vs. Lions
The Lions are coming off a big win over the Packers on the road in week 10 NFL betting, marking their first win at Lambeau in 24 years. Obviously, they are on cloud nine this week. Bookies, however, weren’t totally impressed as they send the Lions into their upcoming clash with the Raiders as the home underdogs. Going high on the Raiders seems to be the vogue thing to do this season. However, they are 0-1 ATS as the road favorites this season with 2-point losing margin and a negative 5-points off the spread (thanks to a 22-20 loss to the Bears all while installed as the 3-point road chalk). This looks like a trap to us, so were banking on the Lions plus the points.

Rams vs. Ravens
The Ravens can’t seem to catch a break, slipping to their seventh loss on the season last Sunday at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The manner of the loss – a contentious penalty in the dying seconds of the game – must hurt. To all intents and purposes, their season is practically done. It’s hard to see how they get up for this game against a tough Rams defense. All season long the Ravens have played games close. Win or loss it was by a handful of points. That NFL betting trend could continue in this game.

Bucs vs. Eagles
The Eagles really need to get it together if Chip Kelly’s experiment is to succeed. As it is, it’s not looking promising with the Eagles slipping to yet another inexplicable defeat on the season. Ahem Mark Sanchez! Let’s hope Sanchez puts in a better performance against the Bucs. Tampa Bay are coming off a narrow 10-6 win over the Cowboys at home, but as good as it was to get the win the account left much to be desired. It was a rather blah performance by the Bucs. Eagles should get it together this weekend.

Redskins vs. Panthers
In our game-by-game predictions for money line NFL picks, we went so far as to suggest the Redskins would pull off the road upset. Insane, right? A long shot NFL pick not for the fainthearted. Admittedly, the chances that the NFL pick will pay out are low. This brings us neatly to this game and betting against the spread. It’s probably the smarter option to back the Redskins to cover as the 7.5-point road underdogs on the NFL odds board that go all out for the SU win. Panthers are 9-0 SU on the season with a 5-0 SU record at home so beating them is a tall order. They are however just 3-2 ATS at home with a 6.8-point winning margin. In that there is wiggle room for the Redskins to cover, if they rise to the occasion.

Chiefs vs. Chargers
The Kansas City Chiefs are riding a three-game winning streak, resurrecting their season against all the odds. Last weekend, they served notice with a win over the Denver Broncos at Mile High. Chargers are freefalling right now behind a five-game losing streak. Philip Rivers can’t seem to buy a win even when littering the stat sheets, which only proves just how bad the Chargers really are. By sheer will power, Rivers could serve up the win in week 11 NFL betting but that’s just hypothesising. We’d rather put our money on something tangible, such as the Chiefs and their winning streak.

Packers vs. Vikings
Green Bay Packers enter this game as the road underdogs, something few would have expected when the NFL schedule came out. It is what it is. A consequence of a three-game losing streak by the Packers that has allowed the Vikings to climb to the top of the NFC North. However, Rodgers can’t possibly lose a fourth game in a row. Not one as important as this one is towards the broad spectrum of the season and playoffs. Vikings are playing great and, even, surprising many NFL bettors. They are sure to come into this game with every intention of winning. However, we simply can’t bet against the Packers when they are the road underdogs. We’re taking the points with the Packers.

49ers vs. Seahawks
The NFL betting spread on this game is verging on the ridiculous, creeping up to almost two touchdowns at some sportsbooks. Not sure if this is a correct assessment of the Seahawks, who have struggled offensively this season. Or if it’s more of an assessment of the ramshackle Niners. In any event, 13.5-points is a lot to be laying with the Seahawks after the disappointing performance by Russell Wilson and the O-line last Sunday. Not that we’re high on the Niners or Blaine Gabbert per say, but they did hold the Falcons to a 17-16 winning account. Gabbert is playing for his NFL career. He’s been riding the bench for an awful long time and with such a prize opportunity to get noticed landing in his lap, he could surprise and keep this much closer.

Bengals vs. Cardinals
Bengals are coming off a horrible loss to the Texans at home, reprising Andy Dalton Primetime bashing. Just when we thought Dandy Andy turned a corner, he reverted back to his bad old ways. In the grand scheme the loss doesn’t particularly mean much as the Bengals are still one of the top teams in the AFC with an 8-1 SU record. However, the fact that Dalton is an unreliable bet under the spotlight is pivotal, particularly in this game which the NFL has moved it into the primetime slot for Sunday. Dalton is 4-12 SU in the last 16 primetime showings. Yikes. Most concerning about everything was Dalton’s reaction in the post-game presser to a journalist winding him up by repeating J.J. Watt’s comments. Such sensitivity and sulkiness really has no place on or off the field. It does him a disservice in the eyes of his opponents. In any event, Bruce Arian and the Cardinals are coming off a gauntlet-throwing win on the road. Beating the Seahawks to take a commanding edge in the NFC West. They should continue the momentum at the expense of whiney Dalton and the Bengals.

Bills vs. Patriots
The Patriots enter this game as the 7-point faves over the Bills. Patriots are at home, where they are impervious to losing at the best of times. Since 2014, they are 9-5-1 ATS at home with a 17.7-point winning margin and a plus 10.5 differential on average against the spread. Last week, the Patriots failed to cover as the 7-point road chalk at MetLife, which might cause some NFL bettors to prevaricate with this NFL pick. In our opinion, it’s neither here nor there. To begin with, the Patriots might have covered had they not had a touchdown come off the board. Mainly, though, it detracts from the most important aspect of that game. They WON. It marked the first win over Eli Manning and the Giants by the Brady-Belichick tandem in four attempts. Prior to the game, the pair were riding a 0-3 SU mark against the Giants, which included two Super Bowl losses. To finally get one over Eli and the G-men must be significant to the Patriots and just underscores the revenge tour they are on this season. We’re laying the points with the home chalk.