Showdown on Sunday

Ségolène Royal put up the best performance of her campaign in a television duel with Nicolas Sarkozy on Wednesday night. For over two and a half hours, a record 23.1 million viewers, more than half of France's registered voters, watched as the presidential contenders slugged it out. It was pure soap opera. Dressed in a severe, black, Thatcher-style jacket, Ms Royal went on to the attack from the start. She was incisive, tough, pugnacious - all the qualities lacking from her campaign. She dominated the debate and even indulged in several moments of righteous indignation, accusing her opponent of being both immoral and a hypocrite on the issue of school places for handicapped children.

This forced the presidential frontrunner on to the back foot. But by successfully concealing his natural quick temper and fiery character, Mr Sarkozy was able to perform the role of the listening statesman. Where Ms Royal pursed her lips, he puckered his. When the woman thundered, the man advised her, with breathtaking condescension, to be calm. The role reversal was complete - and not necessarily to Ms Royal's advantage.

Did it work? Both sides claimed victory yesterday, although a poll found Mr Sarkozy more convincing. The socialists were bolstered by news that François Bayrou, whose centrist votes are gold dust, would not be voting for Mr Sarkozy. But the real answer is: probably not. All Mr Sarkozy has to do is hold the territory he has already so skilfully conquered. Ms Royal, on the other hand, has to capture new ground. The first round of voting two weeks ago left her 2.5 percentage points or 1m votes short of what she needed to defeat her rightwing challenger. With only 48 hours to go, the gap is thought to be too wide. Ms Royal may even have turned away as many centrist votes as she had gained on the left with what may at times have been an excessively combative performance.

But there is one thing the television marathon did achieve. It crystallised the choice facing France. Mr Sarkozy offers a formula deeply familiar to anyone who has lived through the 28 years since Margaret Thatcher was elected: liberalise the job market, make "hard work" worth it, punish the spongers, get tough on crime - to hell with the causes. The one part of his programme that jars to Anglo-Saxon ears is his desire to simultaneously embrace globalisation and protect jobs. Ms Royal's solution to getting France back to work again is social dialogue. The 35-hour week is not to be scrapped - it is to be negotiated. The problem is not the absence of an individual's desire to find work, but the inability of employers, the state and jobseekers to work together. France's generous welfare state should not be cut back, but it should concentrate on delivery. The French brain drain will be reversed not only by a healthier job market, but by universities investing in the knowledge economy.

The two visions are so sharply defined that no one in France can claim they do not know what they will be voting for on Sunday. Nor can they say they were not involved. The record turnout in the first round and the viewing figures on Wednesday night attest to a level of participation unheard of in the rest of Europe. Gordon Brown should agree to hold such a debate with David Cameron.

If France elects Mr Sarkozy, it will know exactly what to expect. It will also be voting in a president who will have his fingers in every pie. When he said on Wednesday that he would give each of the ministers of his government a road map of reforms, he meant it. Under his presidency the prime minister would amount to little more than a chief of staff. This entails huge risks for a president, who will no longer be able to dive for cover behind an unpopular government. But that is what France's most likely future leader is all about. He will thrive, or fall, on his own gargantuan ego.