As popular unrest threatens to topple another Arab neighbor, Israel finds itself again quietly rooting for the survival of an autocratic yet predictable regime, rather than face an untested new government in its place.

Syrian President Bashar Assad’s race to tamp down public unrest is stirring anxiety in Israel that is even higher than its hand-wringing over Egypt’s recent regime change. Unlike Israel and Egypt, Israel and Syria have no peace agreement, and Syria, with a large arsenal of sophisticated weapons, is one of Israel’s strongest enemies.
…
“Officially it’s better to avoid any reaction and watch the situation,” said Maj. Gen. Amos Gilad, the Defense Ministry’s policy director. He predicted Assad’s regime would survive the unrest.

This of course comes not long after the Israeli government was loudly hoping that Hosni Mubarak would stay in power. Seems like they’re really interested in democracy spreading to the Middle East aren’t they?

Eh?
This tiny state (smaller than Wales) faces constant bombardment – and you think they should do something other than hope that whoever has their finger on the button won’t attack their population.
Bizarre.

Hmm – well I suppose Israeli democrats who greeted democracy in Iran in 1979 were sorely disappointed. They got a virulently anti-Israeli (and anti-Semitic) state instead.

Of course a country like Israel is going to be nervous at such upheaval with its neighbours. It’s hammered out an uneasy peace with them at the moment. There’s the quite terrifying prospect of an Islamist government – which nearly happened in Algeria in the 1990s. So like every nation state it looks out to its own interests. It may end up living harmoniously with democratic neighbours. Or it may not. The “may not” could be catastrophic for it.

Did you hear the Syrian ambassador saying last night that Israel was behind the protesters in Syria? Israel does shitty things – but it’s given the credit for doing every shitty thing that happens in the Middle East. Do you think that kind of mud doesn’t stick?

There’s the quite terrifying prospect of an Islamist government – which nearly happened in Algeria in the 1990s.

If people are willing to surrender their voting rights in favour of their religious masters then hell mend them, because, in this world that is where they were going….

Kinda of an Iranian outcome without the violence.

Doesn’t seem to me that that is happening elsewhere in the ME right now.

But, apart from their own stupidity in voting for it, to whom else would it have been terrifying? They are perfectly entitled to be completely off their trolley. It would have set their country back a long way, but heh, they can do that if they want.

Not particularly keen on the whole idea of it being a forever referendum right enough.

Of course, given the Syrian ambassador’s line and the rampant antisemitism prevalent across the region, it’s obvious that Israeli encouragement is going to be *so* helpful to the democrats (if such they be), isn’t it?

Hang on cjcjc, he’s said something nice about Britain. That shows he’s a bastard.

“Israel was born under the British mandate. We learned from the British what democracy means, and how it behaves in a time of danger, war and terror. We thank Britain for introducing freedom and respect of human rights both in normal and demanding circumstances. It was a great lesson and a necessary one for a country such as Israel, which has been attacked seven times in the 63 years of its existence without compromising democracy and without giving up our quest for peace”.

Maybe – but all this (and much of the comment) works on the assumption that a ‘democratic’ (whatever that might mean in practice) middle east/north Africa would all go and vote for war on Israel and the US. Is that true? It didn’t look that way in Egypt or at least not in any serious way.

Granted, when Bahrain falls we will see people hanging from cranes within hours and no grand prix (though Sakir is an awful track – no loss) but would that necessarily translate into an actively war-like policy to Israel?

Serious question – Would the people in the region have a big rush to war or is it more nuanced?

Israel is a hub for the west in the Middle East, its economy is driven by American tax payer and who military arsenal is provided un-audited by the US. This is not an assumption but facts. The land in on which the dream of Israel is built on is stolen from the Palestinians using canning political stunts using British Mandate to force the Palestinians to accept them, why were they not given a safe haven in Europe or did the French and British know how much trouble they would cause being to close to home?

The uncomfortable fact for its supporters is that it does need dictatorships around the Middle East. This is because dictators are not only easy to negotiate with, but also willing to ignore public opinion. And part of the reason Israel has been able to get away with repressing Palestinians is that it is surrounded with dictators who have tacitly worked with it (in Egypt, Saudi Arabia).

If those countries were not dictatorships, the democratically elected govts would not only have to stop cooperating with Israel repression, but US endorsement of that repression. It would make life difficult for the US and Israel.

‘The uncomfortable fact for its supporters is that it does need dictatorships around the Middle East.’

No it does not. Even if I were to take a vote to rush to war as somehow, ‘democratic,’ I see no reason why a dictatorship is somehow de facto more war-like.

‘This is because dictators are not only easy to negotiate with,’

Really? That is a breath-taking statement.

‘but also willing to ignore public opinion.’

Perhaps to a point. But haven’t you spent the past five years telling us how democratic governments also ignore public opinion?

‘And part of the reason Israel has been able to get away with repressing Palestinians is that it is surrounded with dictators who have tacitly worked with it (in Egypt, Saudi Arabia).’

So what are you saying here – Israel has no legitimate security concern? Of course if these other countries all liked Palestinians that much they could just throw open their borders to the Palestinians. That they do not do so is telling.

‘If those countries were not dictatorships, the democratically elected govts would not only have to stop cooperating with Israel repression, but US endorsement of that repression. It would make life difficult for the US and Israel.’

So making life difficult for Israel and the US is the agenda here, rather than a clamour for democratic rule?

Egypt has the same structure in place and the same old old faces except for mubarak of course.

Tunisia business as usual, change a face or two and on we go.

What will be interesting is when israel launches another operation murder arabs in not too distant future. What will the british and american reaction or excuses be, now a precedence has been set for libya.

“And part of the reason Israel has been able to get away with repressing Palestinians is that it is surrounded with dictators who have tacitly worked with it (in Egypt, Saudi Arabia).”

I may be wrong, but didn’t Egypt launch war(s) against Israel under Nasser, who had much popular support?

I’m afraid the result of the democratic will of the people, who have been subject to decades of anti-Israeli propoganda by their despots to excuse their own failings, is more likely to be war. Has anything really changed – I mean, I don’t see the “Arab street” becoming more liberal since 67…

That’s not to “exuse” Israel, which has, as the level-headed among us agree, much to answer for, but I don’t think democracy is likely to bring a peaceful resolution. Democracy, remember, also brought us Hitler. And before I get leaped on, i don’t think that’s likely (the sounds coming from the moderate MB seem to envisage Turkish Islamism as a model) yet, I can understand why Israel is jumpy…

In any case it’s the US that has really kept Israel going, along with the resolve of its people. I can’t see either changing.

(Late edit) Okay, I see you said partly. Ok, fair enough, but as above – one of the key things we are perhaps all missing is the role of the economy in determing the direction of democracies, and let’s face it, that could go either way…

The last 40 years has been entirely in the control of Israel. The last Arab/Israeli war was back in 1973.

The general consensus is that its policies have been a failure and it has operated in a vacuum where the most important voice, that of the people of the neighbourhood, has been made absent.

The state of Israel is no better than any of the dictators of the region who have been in power for 40 years themselves and delivered nothing.

It is also insufficient that the anti-Israeli propaganda is laid at the door of the dictator. It had served both parties well. Israeli propaganda has been aimed entirely at the western public, hence the position we are in.

I recall seeing a poll which showed a significant majority of people here actually thought the Palestinians were the occupiers – a bit like your local council chasing off travellers from a favourite picnic spot. That is some propaganda coup.

Israel has made no effort, and did not feel the need to explain itself to the people of its neighbourhood.

What you have to ask is what did it do for Oslo, apart from murder its own premier?

@23 I don’t disagree with the spirit of what you say. TBH on I/P I’m wary of taking sides, which is why I’ve actually been labeled an “ultra-zionist” or some such by the banned munir/muslim/blah on these threads of late.

I’m with Sunny in that I’d like to see a 2 state solution, return to 67 borders, shared capital etc, and personally believe the US should threaten to turn off the tap unless Israel agrees. However, I can’t wave away the 2000 years of brutalisation that helps explain the Israeli attitude, so I’ve no desire to join the witch hunt either. From a country that’s just joined in the massacre of up to 1 million Iraqis it seems a bit rich to keep picking on the Jews – but I guess that’s always been the Christian way.

Sure criticise the apartheid state, but don’t forget Kurdistan, or Zimbabwe, Iran etc. I mean am I alone in finding it absurd with the acres spent slagging off Israel while the luvvies lap up Press TV, the mouthpiece of a state that’s recently strung up dozens of innocent young dissidents, and buggered them in their hundreds?

Sure criticise the apartheid state, but don’t forget Kurdistan, or Zimbabwe, Iran etc. I mean am I alone in finding it absurd with the acres spent slagging off Israel while the luvvies lap up Press TV, the mouthpiece of a state that’s recently strung up dozens of innocent young dissidents, and buggered them in their hundreds?

No, you are not alone.

I find myself between a rock and a hard place whenever the Middle East is discussed on here.

That is what the various bits of public relations / propaganda mouthpieces are all about is it not? trying, desperately to suborn your opinion?

Frankly, they would all get on a lot better if they strung every PR guy from an available lamp post. For these people have an investment in conflict that pay’s their wages.

I think it’s pretty rich to expect Israel to somehow be for anything that might threaten its security. why shouldnt it be worried that tacitly friendly dictators would be replaced by hostile democracies?

You sneer at my home town. Something else to pontificate on and demonstrate your ignorance and bigotry. I’m at a disadvantage here, never having been to Cloudcuckooland. Though I can’t believe you ever visited Hull. You see it’s a twat-free zone.