The Yardstick

The Morning Measure: 8.6 million in 2040

New forecasts for growth in population, jobs, and housing in the metro Washington region from now until 2040 were presented yesterday during a meeting of the COG Board of Directors. Some of the interesting findings from the forecasts include:

1. Population and jobs are projected to grow slightly slower than prior to the Great Recession

2. However, we’re still out performing most regions – we’re adding jobs while most continue to shed them

3. The raw numbers: Population will grow by 38%, from 6.3 million today to 8.6 million in 2040; Jobs will grow from 3.8 million to 5.6 million, a 47% increase; Households will increase by 43% from 2.3 million to 3.3 million

4. Almost 90% of metro Washington’s long-term job growth will be in the service sector, with construction and state/local government a distant second and third, respectively

5. Federal government employment will shrink slightly, as will manufacturing

6. The jobs/housing balance improves a bit because the rate of employment growth slows more than the rate of household growth

7. The inner suburbs (Montgomery, Prince George’s, Fairfax) see the most absolute growth in all three categories, while the outer suburbs – starting from a lower base – will experience the largest percentage growth

With 2.3 million more people moving to the region by 2040, it’s essential that this growth be captured mainly in activity centers near transit. By reducing sprawl and promoting more sustainable forms of development, this will help meet manyRFtargets.