The Warriors without Bogut: What’s possible, how that affects the first-round match-up, yes, I think it’ll be a lot of Steph Curry vs. the World (fun!)

So how do the Warriors handle life without Andrew Bogut (fractured rib) in the playoffs, almost certainly matched up with the Clippers in the first round?

MT-2 says it might not be as big a deal as most everyone assumes, and I see his point–sometimes it just seems like the Warriors are magnetically pulled towards smaller lineups in crucial moments anyway and yes, the Clippers can look awkward occasionally going up against small ball.

Bogut is the Warriors’ special defensive piece, a true rim protector, he makes them different. And almost every other part of their main rotation is built to play faster and looser and score more swiftly and maybe that isn’t the worst thing in the world against Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and the Clippers.

Over a stretch here or there, the Warriors sometimes can get into a nice rhythm (like they did last night vs. Minnesota) when they go small and cover up for his absence on defense just enough to pull it off and maybe that will work for periods against the Clippers.

When it’s Stephen Curry with a spread out floor vs. the world–as it has been for the last few games; he really seems to have accepted and embraced that he can do almost anything, which is breathtaking to witness on a game-to-game basis, isn’t it?–the Warriors can be scary against anybody at any time.

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But I’m going to jump in right here and say that over the course of a full game and definitely a full series, the loss of Bogut is going to be very, very tough for the Warriors’ chances to knock off the Clippers or anybody else in the West tournament.

The playoffs aren’t usually free-flowing perimeter contests.

And there is no way Doc Rivers is going to let Curry get free every possession on simple ball-screens or just by cutting across the key without the ball and heading to the corner.

No way. He’ll get trapped, he’ll get bumped, he’ll get swarmed on the pick-and-roll (instead of whatever that was Portland was doing two days ago), and he will pass the ball, because Curry is very good at that, too.

It won’t be free and easy. I think Curry is still going to have a remarkable series–he’s too good not to dominate at least 1 or 2 games, even if he’s double-teamed constantly–and I think he loves playing against his friend Paul.

I think watching Curry figure this out on the fly, just as he’s realizing how good he truly can be when he lets it fly for 40+ minutes a game, when he’s beginning to understand that he’s too good NOT to let it fly for 40+ minutes a game… is going to be the best theater of these playoffs, for however long it lasts.

Steph Curry vs. the World is great TV.

But he can’t score 35 and dish out 15 assists every night–the Warriors are going to see some defensive force in the playoffs and they need to meet that with some defensive force of their own, if they want to have a chance.

Usually, that means they need Bogut, but they won’t have Bogut, at least in the first few rounds.

The Warriors need him because he forces them to play differently, not because he’s the same as everybody else on the team. That’s a real difference-maker.
Especially in the playoffs, especially when somebody needs to spend about 5 straight possessions shoving Griffin off the block and forcing him to shoot fall-away jumpers instead power-dribble rim-attacks.

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OK, before I get too far into the Bogut-less expected with the Clippers, a few other notes from last night’s victory over Minnesota that got the Warriors to 50 victories and clinched the 6th seed…

* As the final seconds elapsed, coach Mark Jackson was immediately squished in the middle of a giant group hug from Stephen Curry, Andre Iguodala, Draymond Green and David Lee.

Owner Joe Lacob was about 30 feet away and I think at least a partial subtext of this was that the players wanted Lacob to see their spontaneous joy at hitting 50 with their coach.

* It’s about 80% that the Clippers will get the 3 seed, which would put them into that first-round match-up with the Warriors, but the Clippers could still climb over OKC to the 2 spot–which would send OKC into the bracket vs. the Warriors.

That happens if the Clippers win their final two games (tonight at home against Denver and then in Portland on Wednesday) and OKC loses its finale at home on Wednesday to Detroit .

I’m not sure if Clippers coach Doc Rivers is going to play his starters much in either of these games, especially in the last one, on a road back-to-back, even if he really wants the 2 seed, because he’ll probably assume that the Thunder will win at home tomorrow, anyway.

But we’ll see.
* Warriors vs. the Clippers: Yes, that’s clearly what the Warriors players want and I would imagine it’s what the Clippers want, too.

I started mentioning all the little skirmishes these two teams have had in the last two seasons and one Warriors player immediately started ticking off his own list, not with malice but with obvious anticipation.

–More on what the Warriors can and will try to do without Bogut against the Clippers or whomever…

After the game last night, Jackson all but confirmed that Bogut’s out for the playoffs. We know the Warriors said the same things about Lee’s hip injury in Game 1 against Denver last season and then he came back in that series and played in the next one, but this one sounds different.

“It’s real, it’s unfortunate,” Jackson said of the prospect of Bogut missing all of the postseason. “He gave us what he had.”

More Jackson on Bogut: “Now the baton has been passed and we’ve got to find a way to get it done.”
* Clearly, Jermaine O’Neal will be the main replacement for Bogut, and he certainly is more than capable of giving the Warriors solid minutes at center.

But the Warriors are going to have to mix and match now, and Jackson agreed that there definitely be times when he goes small-ball with Lee at center and Green at power forward (with possibly Harrison Barnes repeating his playoff small-ball PF role, too, I would assume).

* This is the time when the Warriors really need Lee, by the way.

I’ve gone ’round and ’round with Lee fans on the DLee vs. Draymond Green issue–but the point to that was that I believe that Green fits better alongside Bogut, given what we know Bogut does and how the team plays around him.

Well, that’s not applicable for the first round, and I’ve always said that Lee is essential to the Warriors when and if Bogut is out for long stretches, such as now.

Lee has to play to the top of his abilities on defense for the Warriors to hang in against the Clippers, that is not in doubt.

And Lee has to be a large offensive fulcrum–work with Curry on the screen-roll game, hit those mid-range jumpers, attack Griffin offensively, and gobble up every rebound near him.

If he does all that, I will praise Lee, I guarantee you. If he does even half of that, he will be an essential part of any possible Warriors victory.

* How does losing Bogut affect the decision on Jackson’s future? Impossible to know, of course.

Obviously, if Jackson and his staff can pull off a first-round victory now, it’d be a huge accomplishment. The Warriors were going to be underdogs even with Bogut, but without him, they’ll rightfully be downgraded even more.

So this allows the Warriors to play a little looser, maybe. And yes, Jackson loves the underdog role, if you haven’t noticed.

They’ve felt some pressure this season, undoubtedly, as expectations mounted and the talk about their coach floated all around.

But if the expectations drop… and Curry continues to elevate himself… and Lee and Iguodala and Green and others play lights out… and the Warriors use it all as motivation against a team they dislike, anyway…

I’d think a good strong effort in the first round would give Jackson a major lift in the eyes of GSW management, and a first-round victory without Bogut might seal the deal for his return next year and maybe a short-term extension on top of that.

If the Warriors go out meekly without Bogut… sorry, I’m not sure what happens. This is all NBA Coaching Future Calculus, and the formula changes every day, if you hadn’t noticed.

Bogut gave fans a taste of what this team is with a real center. And that’s the end of that. He’s another in a long,long,line of brittle 7′ NBA centers. Walton- Sampson-Ming and many more. Its beating a dead horse expecting Bogut to be reliable. Or a Horse with a fractured rib.

victor soma

if the Dubs can somehow find a way to get one in L.A. watch out. Clips have some flaws that can be exploited and I have a felling Draymond is going to be a major irritant.

Mark M

Perhaps we can sign Sleepy Floyd and shoot our way to one win against LA again. That’s about the best scenario I can imagine at this stage. We have no interior toughness, no real defense inside, and facing a pretty rough interior team to boot. Even Lee, an obvious joke of a defender though a decent rebounder, is a shell of himself. He looked on the verge of passing out last night at times. We’re facing the best point guard in the league. We’re taking on a smart big game coach who knows how to win in the playoffs and get his players ready for anything.

I think one win at home is the most I can possibly expect, and it could be exciting with the way Curry is playing. But I have zero optimism we can duplicate last year’s playoff success or anything close to it. It’s over.

Jack Kornblau’s Biggest Fan

jesus christ you over-write.

DGL510

Awesome, you sound exactly like all the gurus who said the Warriors didnt stand a chance against the nuggets last year. The same Warriors that damn near took San Antonio out.

Mark M

That was last year WITH Bogut.

DGL510

And WITHOUT David Lee. You know, mr 20/10. Remember? D Lee went down and all the doubters said the Warriors didn’t stand a chance. Sound familiar? And don’t say he returned. 2.5 mins a game doesn’t count. Anyways… Zero optimism. Yikes, thought Warriors had hardcore fans. Zero optimism would be more like Curry, Thompson, Draymond Green all fall off a roller coaster and break their ribs. Finally, Warriors love to play small ball and spread the floor with five shooters anyways. When we go big, last time I checked, Jermaine oneal was no slouch. Either you need to lighten up or chill with the hyperbole. Or just admit you like the clippers.

Rodrigues_Islander

I’m surprised that Tim said this: “This is the time when the Warriors really need Lee, by the way.” At any rate, the Warriors need to play Jordan and Griffin tough and hold their own. Don’t let Jordan get Mozgov numbers on them and keep Griffin in the low 20s. Going to be tough.

Mark M

Jeeez dude, take a pill yourself. I get that you don’t like my opinion. I’m not fond of my conclusion either. But we now have no defense inside. Lee is once again a shell of himself with his nerve injury to his back. It’s obviously affecting him. He doesn’t even sit down during TOs and his play is spotty, often disappearing for long stretches. Plus he’s a bad defender even when healthy. That’s our starting 4 and 5 gone and minimized against a good front line of the Clips. Jermaine is nice and all but old and can’t play many minutes. No Ezeli. We can score with the best of them but who’s going to play defense inside? Play always slows down in the playoffs so we’re looking at lots of half court sets. No matter how you slice it, or want to believe in the power of emotion, we’re hamstrung. Think brother. We Believe is one thing and I’ll cheer along with ya. But logic can’t be ignored.

DGL510

Lee just put up 25 and 9 on Kevin love. He had inflammation around a nerve in his hamstring not back. There’s a lot of politics in lineups I don’t care what anyone says. So the fact that Harrison Barnes is still even on the team says it all. The point is, now Draymond green can come in and guard Blake griffin instead of David lee. You know because there are times David lee has to play because he’s David lee. Regardless of green’s hot hand or toughD. Plus Klay is an above average defender with iguadala up around elite. I totally get your point that bogut was our anchor. I’m a big bogut fan. The fact is when iguadala is out, it affects the dubs more than when bogut was out. Check the records and stats for yourself. Now had we lost Curry……..

Mark M

Hey at least you’re making good points now. Like I said, we can score with anybody. We just have no interior defense. How many points did Love put up? 40. Get used to stuff like that.

DGL510

Likewise, and who knows, maybe I’m just trying to convince myself. Ha

coltraning

Pretty much spot on…the x factor you didn’t mention was Festus. IF he can give them 10-15 minutes a game that is a big body that plays good d and has 6 fouls to give. But yeah, hard to imagine this utterly loaded Clippers team losing to a team that just lost its best interior defender…they will absolutely score more easily, no doubt, but that will be very likely outweighed by giving up more points. But that’s why we play ’em, right? Just ask the 2007 Mavs and 2013 Nuggets.

PeteyBrian

Thanks Tim,
Praise David Lee? We’ll see it when we see it! Lol! Tim’s kinda playing Lee like Lacob is sweating Coach Jackson’s possible extension… Show me… Lol!

So the W’s lose their key interior defender and my favorite player in Andrew Bogut. On the other hand, Bogut arguably bogged down the offense ranked somewhere around 12th! Yes, 12TH!

O’Neal’s still pretty good for as many minutes as he can play.

I’ll be looking forward to seeing if the W’s can put a three-point shooting display series together… The floor will be absolutely SPACED for Curry and Lee to work their offensive magic. Curry/Barnes/Green/Klay/Iguodala/Blake/Crawford – should drain threes at a very high percentage. Griffin will have to guard Green/Barnes on the perimeter.

The We Believe Team did it… Knocked out #1 seed playing small.

And isn’t this team BETTER than We Believe? And the Clippers WORSE than the Mavericks?

My only question is – can Coach Mark Jackson make the right Nellie-like adjustments? Or are we going to get a big dose of O’Neal and Speights and possibly Ezeli at Center?

David Lee at center is what I want to see. Run Lee at DeAndre Jordan and take him off the dribble in a spread floor. Make Griffin guard on the three-point line (Green/Barnes at PF).

And then periodically Hack-A-DeAndre during a key possession… That guy can’t shoot pressure free throws. This will take DeAndre out of the game. Doc Rivers can’t shoot for him.

victor soma

our perimeter D is still stout with Andre and Klay. Draymond is no slouch either.

Mark M

true, but the Clips are tough inside, exactly where we are now weak.

DGL510

Their offense doesn’t run through deandre Jordan. Jordan dunks. If Jordan Crawford was standing between Deandre and the rim he’d have to get rid of ball. An exaggeration but dj has no shooting.

DGL510

You were right… We miss Bogut pretty badly.

Mark M

unfortunately

DGL510

Draymond on griffin. Maybe I was right. Have 3 more possible games to be ambiguous.

Mark M

It doesn’t appear to be about basketball anymore. Anything could happen now.

Mark M

I absolutely believe it. The Clips were a compromised team that night. I heard it reported that players were receiving text messages urging them to not play prior to the game from multiple source. How could something like this NOT affect them? They were caught in the middle and their weak protest shouted “compromise” to me. Doubt kills the warrior…so to speak. Watching the Houston/Portland series later that night and seeing REAL playoff intensity between both teams reminded me of what that really looks like and re-inforced my view that the Clips didn’t have it.

I appreciate your comments on racism so I’ll not add to, nor dispute, them as I’m not a minority.

As far as the Warriors go, the lineup change clearly helped as you suggested it would. Any time Draymond is on the court more minutes, I’m happy. And Lee showed up pretty big, I must confess. I imagine we’ll see much more small ball tonight and Thursday. Go Warriors!