The forecast delivered Monday was the worst uttered in about three decades, according to Robert Richardson, economist and assistant professor at Michigan State University.

Travel spending will be flat this year, Richardson told about 500 attending a statewide travel conference at the Amway Grand Plaza Hotel.

The professor reached that conclusion by combining an anticipated 2 percent decrease in travel volume with an expected 3 to 4 percent increase in travel prices.

"This is possibly the most pessimistic outlook since the late 1970s," said Richardson, who has been an economist for a decade.

He is among the faculty members from MSU's Department of Community, Agriculture, Recreation and Resource Studies who presented the annual tourism year-in-review and forecast.

But Richardson warned making predictions in a struggling economy is tough, although the numbers of his travel "brain trust" usually tend to err on the optimistic side.

More people staying home

If gas prices reach $4, more people will be staying home or making shorter trips, he said.

The cause?

The usual Michigan suspects: climbing gas prices, housing crisis, high unemployment, declining automotive industry. A looming national economic recession does not help matters.

In 2007, the number of tourism miles driven in Michigan fell for the first time, he said.

For the third year in a row, the state's hotel occupancy rate ranked lowest in the nation.

It's a double whammy for the industry because prices are rising as volume is falling.

The travel price index is up 8 percent over last, fueled mainly by the cost of gasoline, which went up 32.7 percent in a year's time.

Richardson's outlook was so gloomy that any nuggets of good news drew applause and cheers of those attending Driving Tourism 2008, a three-day Michigan Lodging & Tourism Conference that was to wrap up today at the Amway Grand Plaza Hotel.

Some good news

Those included:

-- Thanks to record snowfall, the ski business was up this winter and lake levels are expected to rise for the first time in years.

-- The dollar's nearly 20 percent loss against foreign currencies is making Michigan more attractive to Canadians and other international travelers.

But economic forecasts are like weather predictions, said David Lorenz with Travel Michigan, the state agency charged with promoting tourism.

"Economists can only forecast for things they are aware of. They can't predict how the industry is going to react and turn things around," Lorenz said.

He is hoping the Legislature will approve additional funding for the Travel Michigan budget so it can boost marketing in Canada and the Midwest.

"This will help us get the message out about Pure Michigan," Lorenz said.

Overall, the tourism industry contributes $18.8 billion to the state economy annually, accounts for 200,000 jobs and generates $1.1 billion in state tax revenues.