You'd probably have to go back to 1997 to find a draft like this one. That's the year Peyton Manning eschewed the prospect of going to the Jets first overall to play for Bill Parcells and returned for his senior year at Tennessee. One quarterback (shaky Jim Druckenmiller, 26th) picked in round one. Two backs (Warrick Dunn 12th and Antowain Smith 23rd) in round one, and four receivers in the first: Ike Hilliard seventh, Yatil Green 15th, Reidel Anthony 16th and Rae Carruth 27th. Yikes! What a horrible draft for point-producers. One star, Dunn, out of seven first-rounders.

That could repeat this year. It's likely Alabama's Eddie Lacy will be the only running back taken in round one. Tennessee's Cordarrelle Patterson leads the muddled pack at wide receiver, but how sure can you really be of junior-college transfers who play one year of major-college football, which is Patterson's profile?

The quarterbacks are a total mish-mosh at this point. One GM interested in acquiring a quarterback this offseason told me over the weekend, "I expect more attention on the quarterbacks throwing this year than on any other single thing at the Combine.'' Some think Geno Smith of West Virginia will go first overall to quarterback-needy Kansas City; one personnel man who studied all the top quarterbacks for a team in need of one last fall told me, "There's not one quarterback, including Smith, I would take in the first round."

Two points about that. If you need a quarterback, you can talk brave in February, but when reality sets in around draft day, and you haven't picked up a quarterback in free agency, all of a sudden the zits on Smith, Matt Barkley and other others don't seem as bad. And we're nine and a half weeks from round one. There's no way that Andy Reid and John Dorsey, the coach and GM for Kansas City, know what they're doing now. They need time to investigate and to watch tape on the eight or 10 quarterbacks.

But in some ways, 2013 should be a catchup year for the other positions. Opening day 2013 could feature 12 starting quarterbacks drafted in 2011 and '12; that's far, far above the norm in a game that values veteran arms at the position.

Now for a couple of notes about players at the Combine.

Alec Ogletree. The underclass inside linebacker from Georgia would be a clear top-10 pick with a clean resume. But he was suspended the first four games of last season for failing an offseason drug test, and then came the news Saturday night, via ProFootballTalk.com, that Ogletree recently was pinched for driving while intoxicated.

Ogletree and agent Pat Dye were smart to come out and beat the police blotter to the punch. As for the damage done by the arrest, Ogletree, who is a speed demon for an inside player, the kind of player who, if right, would be a perfect fit as a rare three-down inside linebacker for any team, has to convince teams they shouldn't be worried about a player who has tested positive, been suspended, and gotten a DWI in the span of about nine months.

Some GM is going to stake his reputation on Ogletree in the first round, most likely. Which GM? It would have to be a secure one. Green Bay's Ted Thompson or de facto GM Bill Belichick of the Patriots or Baltimore's Ozzie Newsome, all down near the bottom of the round.

Manti Te'o. The Notre Dame linebacker has spent a lot of time practicing football and practicing what he's going to say to teams. His last game, against Alabama, was a nightmare (he was awful, and overpowered), and then the whole fake girlfriend story came up, making him a national story and, in some quarters, a national joke. It won't matter much how he works out in Indianapolis. What will matter are the 15-minute interviews he'll have in formal evening sessions with teams, and in less formal settings, seeing coaches and personnel people at the stadium and around his hotel.

No men have more on the line, off the field, at the Scouting Combine than Ogletree and Te'o.

Finally, three players I'll be watching at the Combine, three with question marks and debatable upsides:

1. Quarterback Sean Renfree, Duke. No one's talking about him, but he completed 70 percent of his throws in six of 12 games for David Cutcliffe last fall, was a comeback specialist, and has the pedigree in a good pro-style offense to play early. Could he be more than a late-round flyer, this year's Ryan Lindley? We'll see.

2. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes, Florida State. A 6-2 cornerback in a league demanding cover guys who can play on islands more and more? Scouts want to see if Rhodes, who is a heady player with good bump skills at the line of scrimmage, has the speed to stay with fast wideouts. If so, he'll be a top-half-of-the-first-round player.

3. Running back Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina. After his devastating dislocated knee and torn knee ligaments in October, Lattimore, considered a certain first-rounder before the injury, is still in recovery mode. His surgeon, James Andrews, told Lattimore recently that he's going to shock the world. "I hear he's working out great,'' said Mayock. Lattimore believes he'll be healthy enough to start the 2013 NFL season. Is he's a fourth-round minefield pick? Or might some team desperate for a back go for him a round earlier -- or even late in the second round?

Finally, three players I'll be watching at the Combine, three with question marks and debatable upsides:

1. Quarterback Sean Renfree, Duke. No one's talking about him, but he completed 70 percent of his throws in six of 12 games for David Cutcliffe last fall, was a comeback specialist, and has the pedigree in a good pro-style offense to play early. Could he be more than a late-round flyer, this year's Ryan Lindley? We'll see.

OK the Sean Renfree bandwagon is loading up and ready to roll.... ALL ABOARD!!!

Wrong again. The Cassel experience should ABSOLUTELY have impact on this situation.

You find the BEST QB AVAILABLE in whatever way you can. Trade, free agency, or draft. And you do what it takes to get that QB.

The only reason why you would take Alex Smith over Geno is not because you can get a better price, but ONLY IF he's a better QB than Geno is. And it's apparent from the lack of offers that teams don't believe he IS worth the trade at all, meaning he's probably not the best QB we can get in this offseason.

In 2009 we took the best QB value. It got us a subpar player. We'll be doing the same thing again... compromising value on the QUARTERBACK, THE MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL POSITIONS X100 on the freakin field.

You speak as if the outcomes are a known fact. They aren't. Not remotely. In fact, you know A LOT more about Alex Smith than Geno Smith. And you knew A LOT more about Matt Cassel than Mark Sanchez.

My view is that you trust the professionals, always. The process they use is far more substantive and informed than the process almost any fan uses.

Talk about it all you want, but the moment the fan starts taking their opinions so seriously that they feel their evaluation process is better than the pros, is the moment they should take a break from things for a while.

You speak as if the outcomes are a known fact. They aren't. Not remotely. In fact, you know A LOT more about Alex Smith than Geno Smith. And you knew A LOT more about Matt Cassel than Mark Sanchez.

My view is that you trust the professionals, always. The process they use is far more substantive and informed than the process almost any fan uses.

Talk about it all you want, but the moment the fan starts taking their opinions so seriously that they feel their evaluation process is better than the pros, is the moment they should take a break from things for a while.

I AM trusting the professionals. The reports are out there that nobody wants or gives a shit about Alex Smith.

I know quite a bit about Geno Smith. I know he's got a chance of being a really really good QB in this league. I and other professionals in the business know that it's an infinitesimally small chance that Alex Smith becomes as good as Geno could possibly be.

That's why teams will spend a first round pick on Geno (hopefully it's the Chiefs who do it). They WON'T be trading a first round pick to the 49ers for Alex Smith. And I doubt a team does it for a 2nd or a 3rd, either.

You still haven't addressed my point of what the best and most valuable pick we can make at #1 is. Good coaches have to draft well, after all. And they need franchise QBs.

We (fans) don't have the tools to give the best answer to that. It's hard enough job when you have all of the tools. It's PURE FANTASY to pretend that fans with other jobs can do a better job in the long run, than any pro doing their job using all the tools they have.

I'm not avoiding your question, my answer is that we shouldn't try to (seriously) answer that question. Have fun with the talk, but don't flip out when others disagree... specifically when those others are highly paid professionals.

Alex Smith was a fumbling kick returner away from a SB in 2011. When he went down in 2012 he was leading the NFL in passer efficiency and got benched for a guy that was just a hell of a lot more dynamic than Alex. Y'know what? Kaepernick's a hell of a lot more dynamic than Geno is as well.

Give Smith a good team and he can get you to 12 wins. And yes, it's absolutely possible that he could get hot like Flacco and take a team to the SB - he should have in 2011.

I'm getting really tired of people that feel that have to slam Alex Smith to justify Geno Smith. All that does is diminish Geno. Alex Smith would be as good as Trent Green was in KC under Andy Reid, I honestly believe that. Geno has the upside to be the top 10 guy that Alex doesn't, but that doesn't mean Alex is crap.

We (fans) don't have the tools to give the best answer to that. It's hard enough job when you have all of the tools. It's PURE FANTASY to pretend that fans with other jobs can do a better job in the long run, than any pro doing their job using all the tools they have.

I'm not avoiding your question, my answer is that we shouldn't try to (seriously) answer that question. Have fun with the talk, but don't flip out when others disagree... specifically when those others are highly paid professionals.

Fans with other jobs have the balls to do what's right for the franchise sometimes.

Isn't that what this draft game is all about? Doing what's best for the team, not what will save your job the longest?