In the image accompanying this text, it’s Tuesday afternoon and smoke from fires east of Waratah and from west of Chudleigh is about to hit the north east of Tasmania. The smoke that can be seen in Bass Strait is not going to make it onto our shores - that’s the extent of the mainland’s foray south.

Do yourselves a favour and zoom in on our local line of smoke crossing the island in an easterly difection. Here, in this image, you can see how it was broadening, and slowing. It’s almost as far as the east coast. [In one of the links supplied on one of the other previous related threads, we could see that smoke as it began - a slim line of smoke only extending a relatively short distance.] Now you can see that it has continued across the state, and that there are some very thick sections of smoke within it.

The next thing that happened was that a wind change brought that line of smoke in a north-east direction - to Launceston. At this stage I photographed it [see ‘The Truth about the Smoke’ - link below] approaching Launceston, showing clearly that the smoke was to the west and south west of the city. My photos showed clearly that as the smoke crossed the city, the sky further to the north was still clear of smoke. As the afternoon grew into evening the amount of smoke coming from the west increased. It got dark.

In the morning, Wed 17th - St Patrick’s Day, Launceston was covered in fog - the first for the year. The fog extended out to Rocherlea. Beyond that point, beyond the extent of the fog, as I drove to Lilydale, I could see the bush and the gullies filled with the smoke that I had seen while it was still light on the previous day. [Tue 16 Mar] The St Pat’s Wednesday early morning air was calm. At Lilydale itself, the smoke was pervasive and had actually thickened by 10:30am to the point that you could smell it, taste it, feel it in your nose and on your eyes and, yes, though we could all still see, our world outside our town had shrunk to a kilometre or so. By lunchtime, as the day warmed up and the air began to move, the smoke began to thin. Yet after work, it was still throughout the district in the gullies and valleys, in the trees and still shortening our horizons.

This satellite pic is the best that I can find to illustrate what actually happened. It is the last taken on the Tue afternoon that I have seen that shows what is about to unfold. (apart from those shots that were taken on the ground by TT correspondents, including myself) After this, the next available satellite image shows Tas covered in cloud and glimpses are caught between masses of cloud, of smoke moving north eastwards. It is disappointing that this shocking event should have been so accompanied by misinformation from mostly anonymous correspondents, who it always seems, have an axe of confusion to grind, have fires of illusion to light and have truth to hide and deny.

I have attached here a document* containing a sequence of images from Sentinel which shows the hotspots in Tasmania over those two-three days - hotspots which some correspondents like “crf” told us didn’t exist in the forty eight hours leading up to ‘Smoke-Wednesday.’ Well, the truth is, it was a local job, the ‘smoking guns’ can be found between Waratah and Mole Creek.

PS: I rather fancy in the satellite photo that you can see a long passenger jet-stream among the Bass Strait smoke. It seems to have a couple of splits in it and also a ‘twist in its southern tail’. (You’d need to zoom to see it) My further fancy is that perhaps it is the same jet-stream that you can see in one of the photos that I took and included in the “Truth about the Smoke” (see link below) Clive disagrees with me, which is good, that’ll give us the chance to have a little wager - readers can be ‘the jury’.

One small glitch: the second link that I supplied at the end of my article leads to a dead end.* The link should have opened the article called “The Truth about the Smoke” and with a bit of luck and a pinch of salt ... clicking on the following might achieve the desired result ...

*Actually the ‘dead end’ link is the Trial of Michelle O’Byrne. There is a certain irony somewhere in that fact.

Posted by Garry Stannus on 27/03/10 at 05:51 AM

Budding award winning journos should always remember not to cherry pick, and to double check the wizardry of satellite technology.

The following photos do show the smoke from Victoria making it to Tasmania and fully support the advice of the State’s EPA. They demonstrate that the two media releases made that day by Nitens plantation owner Booth and special species timber harvester Morris were nothing more than political opportunity.

#2 Your links lead to images with no date, time or any other qualification. Was this deliberate? They mean nothing. Without context they in no way contradict Garry’s qualified evidence. Your vested interest is shown by your biting sarcasm - topped off only by your signature.

Posted by Bob Kendra on 27/03/10 at 12:29 PM

Why would anyone be stupid enough to call themselves Rita Skeeter if they want to be thought of as believable?

It makes me laugh when he/she says “Budding award winning journos should always remember not to cherry pick, and to double check the wizardry of satellite technology.”

Anyone familiar with the Potter books knows Rita Skeeter is a free-lance journalist specializing in writing poison-pen stories based on false information and misreported interviews.

Given the name chosen, these comments are either tongue in cheek or produced by a neurotic defender of the undefendable. Thinking along those lines he/she is most likely the latter and possibly works for one of the local rags!

Posted by Jeff Williams on 27/03/10 at 01:57 PM

#3… . Bob…it’s very common for nay-sayers to believe their own rhetoric and not accept an alternative view. It’s demonstrated on TT on a daily basis.

Posted by D1 on 27/03/10 at 03:48 PM

Skeeter is from TCA. Someone must have read the potter book to her.

Posted by mark on 27/03/10 at 04:57 PM

3; Bob, I’m no expert on satellite images but surely the date and other details is included in the link? 20100316 etc.

Posted by Steve on 27/03/10 at 06:47 PM

Rita love,

Thanks for the laugh.
I wouldn’t want to get caught with those dirty images on your computer, ROFL

Posted by Clive Stott on 27/03/10 at 07:00 PM

Garry; do you know the exact time of the image shown in this article?

Posted by Steve on 27/03/10 at 08:49 PM

Referring to Steve’s comment @ #7 - Can anybody here help us with the times that might be contained in the file numbers of links provided by Rita? The 16th of March might be referenced. Previous posters have written of a time delay determined by locality in the satellite image reporting system. Can we pin down meaningful times from the file numbers? If there is evidence of Victorian smoke in the mix I’ve seen plenty of reliable proof of dense, widespread, low-altitude locally originating smoke on 17th of March. The Smoking Gun image above from Garry is strong evidence in itself.

Posted by Bob Kendra on 27/03/10 at 10:09 PM

Garry, as I’ve written elsewhere, I think you’re mostly right about Tuesday, but wrong about Wednesday.

I agree re the contrail though; I spotted that too.

Posted by Dr Mark Duffett on 27/03/10 at 10:19 PM

Steve (#9):

the picture that accompanied “The Smoking Gun” , if I have retrieved it correctly again, can be found in a directory at the CSIRO website:

The actual photo to scroll down to seems to be this one:
File: Aqua20100316T042846Z20100316T044248Z.Tasmania_500m.HKM.jpg

As you will see before you’ve clicked on that link to the actual photo, the date and time (EST) in the table cells next to it showed Mar 16, 2010, 17:59.

Given that we were/are still on daylight savings, I think you can say that the photo was taken at 1 minute before 7:00pm on the Tue evening before the St Pat’s smoke out. The ABC TV news was about to come on. (But I take note of Bob Kendra’s remarks in #10 and Mark’s in #11 - I’m about to try and find answers to them too. )

Gee whiz, I hope this helps, I’m getting bamboozled trying to remember where I saw what and what it was that I saw!

-Garry
PS: MARK #11: could you tell me why you think my account of Wed is wrong or which bits are incorrect? Sorry if you’ve already answered this and I’ve missed seeing it.

Posted by Garry Stannus on 28/03/10 at 11:46 AM

Bob (#10):
you asked for the times of the images supplied by the unknown person who uses the pen-name ‘Rita Skeeter’. According to CSIRO, they were taken on the Wed afternoon, 12:33pm - our local summer-time. Check it out yourself at:

Terra20100316T232056Z20100316T233435Z.Tasmania_500m.HKM.jpg
and
Terra20100316T232056Z20100316T233435Z.Tasmania_NE.QKM.jpg

The first of these images shows the more detail. It shows the mass of white cloud enveloping the Tasmanian mainland, under which the northern coast of the island can just be discerned. A little more clear is the NE tip of the island and the islands of the Furneaux group. At this stage, you can see Cape Portland, around to Eddystone Point, Binnalong Bay and on down to just before Scamander where the cloud gets the better of our view.

Readers might care to glance back up along the east coast till they get to Eddystone Point again. They will see two white clouds pointing in the ‘two o’clock’ position – that seems to indicate the direction of the wind. One is above Eddystone Point, the other offshore to the right. They are both casting shadows below them. Now cast your eyes back to the middle of the photo frame ... up near the top. you can see the shapes of clouds looking like the letter n or upturned U s with long legs. Not that I’m qualified to judge, but doesn’t that also tell us about the direction of the wind (at that level)?

It’s quite a wonderful photo actually, the closer you look at it. Look at the blue gash in the white, travelling from bottom centre up towards the black corner of the frame. We are seeing the west coast, the blue of the water and the green of the hills that seem to be acting as a barrier to the cloud mass. And parallel to this, but just over halfway towards the NE tip, we see the cloud just seeming to straddle the eastern side of the Tamar. (Zoom a little?)

Underneath lie places like Lilydale, swaddled in a sheet of smoke, below the cloud. I am not alone in noting that by this time of the day, (lunchtime) the thick smoke at ground and hill level was beginning to thin. The anonymous person cites this photo as some sort of proof of smoke from the mainland. That photo fails to exclude the local smoke from our considerations. That is the smoke that all on these threads have now agreed drifted across the island from Waratah during the afternoon and evening of the day before. More of that in an ensuing comment.

The anonymous person has given us as “proof” a photo that shows too little, too late. Instead of showing smoking ‘steaming’ in from the mainland, it shows, if anything, smoke sulking off the east coast and beyond Flinders. If that is the mainland smoke, note how it is not at ground level - remember those two little clouds at Eddystone Point, have another look and you will see that the one on the right has a smoke trail obscuring the top of it.

-Garry

Posted by Garry Stannus on 28/03/10 at 05:11 PM

Thanks for that Garry. My best guess was that the file name gave the date and time, but we’d have to add eleven hours for local time.

Posted by Steve on 28/03/10 at 06:37 PM

@12 Garry, click on ‘elsewhere’ in my comment @11. My interpretation is @112 in the other thread.

Posted by Dr Mark Duffett on 28/03/10 at 10:50 PM

Garry, thank you so much for your major efforts interpreting the satellite images cited by Rita. I found them and studied them in the light of your comments, as well as from a general perspective.

I agree with you that much of that which looks clearly like smoke lies east of Northeast Tasmania and the Furneaux Group. I agree that clouds along the east coast and stretching into Bass Strait west of Flinders Island appear to be carried by a southwesterly airstream.

As a keen amateur weather watcher I can possibly perceive two layers of cloud: the broad masses and more defined cloud – as well as the smoke that looks as if air-brushed. Could the air mass from the mainland have met with south-westerlies carrying locally generated smoke? I can imagine this creating an air-shed (rather like that of the Tamar Valley) trapping smoke. We could have been copping it from both directions, as reported in The Mercury on the day following the Big Smoke.

In any case, the images cited by Rita definitely do not appear to exclude locally generated smoke. Instead, they could show local smoke lingering and joined by smoke from the mainland, given the airstreams indicated by the clouds.

The image heading your article that so clearly shows a large mass of dense smoke coming from northwest Tasmania could easily be pre-curse the images that Rita claims show smoke from Victoria.

We have to continue scrutinizing a critical event. At first, we had to settle for poor mainstream reporting. Then forestry backers jumped on hasty presumptions to support their cause. Soon official reports were removed and contradicted. Meanwhile, photos of plumes from high intensity regeneration burns revealed Tasmanian sources. These were backed by first hand reports on this website. All the while, the industry lobby hammered a line.

The weather has never turned more political than on 17th March 2010. Political repercussions will be longstanding. There is a lot at stake assessing the contribution of local high intensity burns to such a foul day for Tasmania. As others have written, Victorians may be expected to come up with some answers too. In any case, one industry engulfed more than half an island with choking carbon emissions.

Posted by Bob Kendra on 28/03/10 at 11:42 PM

The major issue here is one of a quite serious show of accountability or even leads to the very denial of truth.

1. For what purpose does it serve to the entire population of Tasmania, to be fed with such contradicting origins of ‘who or what” is the cause of this smoke emanation from Tasmania?

2. There is contained within this smoke matter, the ever constant propensity of elements within the forestry industry, to mislead the people of Tasmania from the facts.

3. Why is there this considered need by the forestry industry ‘to deny or mislead at every opportunity?

4. What is the actual purpose for the denials, is it to circumvent the EPA regulation and or other atmosphere attendant authorities?

5. clearly there has been a determined intention to create a false path or point of origin, by those associated with the ignition of forestry fires on this particular day?

We the people are to understand that this arm of the government forestry concern, being the GBE of ‘Forestry Tasmania’, (of which it is important to add, is also the WARDEN AND OR GUARDIAN of our entire forested areas within this State,) that is actually operating within the laws and regulations as set down by the authorities in this State?

Finally, if the Forestry Tasmania GBE is guilty of an offence, or a breech of duty of care, in all this, how can it be that it has not advised of any ‘knowledge or references’ toward the facts of what occurred during this reported time of smoke nuisance?

Some mumbled ‘yes-ings and no-ings’ do not add to the matter either?

Posted by William Boeder on 29/03/10 at 08:26 AM

Thanks for all the kind words for providing you with those lovely photos that many seemed unable to find for the last two weeks.

It’s great to see budding award winning journos trying to figure out file names and do some actual research.

People can compare the facts as stated by the EPA on smoke in the North East on 17 March (just before the election):
“A large section of Northern Tasmania has been affected by smoke drifting across Bass Strait from Victoria this week.”

“EPA Director Warren Jones said satellite photographs had revealed several large plumes of smoke over an extensive area from St Helens and the Fingal Valley to Launceston, the Tamar Valley and as far west as Ulverstone on Wednesday.”

“The plumes have spread across the north of the state and appear to stem from the 90 Mile Beach area of East Gippsland in Victoria where a number of planned burns are in progress,” Mr Jones said.

Perhaps others could copy and paste the Examiner’s page 3 article (18 March) quoting the Bureau of Meteorology confirming the smoke came from Victoria. These experts actually know that the wind on the day was from the north!

Love Rita

Posted by Rita Skeeter on 29/03/10 at 07:02 PM

Bob:

You asked:

“Could the air mass from the mainland have met with south-westerlies carrying locally generated smoke? I can imagine this creating an air-shed (rather like that of the Tamar Valley) trapping smoke. We could have been copping it from both directions, as reported in The Mercury on the day following the Big Smoke.”

What I have observed is something along the lines of what you have canvassed above.
Some time after St Patrick’s Day, while preparing “The Truth about the Smoke” I used the Bureau of Meteorology site to view the weather patterns across southern Australia over the days leading up to and including that Wednesday, 17 Mar. I used the following link:

http://www.bom.gov.au/sat/archive_new/gms/#op2
and typed in the dates /times. From memory, these were UTC and to get the photos that I wanted, I had to write down the various AEDT times and dates, take 11 hours off them, and use the ‘older’ times’ to search for the photos. Anyway, I got there, I think, and then I used the ‘loop’ facility to view how the cloud was moving as the time progressed. There are 24 pix taken each day, and also from memory, the photos are 12:30, 13:30 and so on. I read somewhere that the satellite takes 30?mins to get the whole shot so I don’t know how that titbit relates to the already amended times. All this is apparently easy stuff for those triumphalists who told us how the satellites had proved the Victorian smoke thesis. I mean to say, all they came up with, the whole lot of them, eventually, was an image taken hours after the worst of that Wed morning smoke - smoke which was heading away from the island.

But as I ran the loop, I saw that, yes the long, slim line of cloud while moving westwards across Australia, also was moving to the south at the same time. However, this didn’t apply to the entire width of that cloud stream. That stream had originally been two streams, one which had been in central Australia and the other, one which had swirled up from Western Australia, had caught it and appeared to have ‘co-joined’ merged – but the elements of the stream from the Centre were kept confined to Bass Strait and Victoria and did not make it onto our island. To see all this, you’d have to go back to the photo loops for the days before that Tue and Wed.

A question which I can’t answer (at this stage at least) is how airstreams behave at different levels of altitude. The link which I have given you shows the overall weather patterns, but it doesn’t tell me what was happening below these systems. If you use the link to view the photos in a loop, it will help if you zoom in on our part of the globe, say 400%-500% - then you’ll be able to see the individual cloud elements.

AFTERTHOUGHT:
I liked your account of perceiving two layers of cloud, as well as the smoke. I had ended my #13 by mentioning how one can see what appears to be a portion of smoke straddling one of those two little clouds up by Eddystone Point. The cloud to the right, is the one (from memory) that is straddled. I also thought at the time, but didn’t mention, that just as you can see the shadows of those two clouds below them, was it water or another layer of smoke below them on which the shadow is seen? i.e., are there also different layers of smoke?

Posted by Garry Stannus on 29/03/10 at 08:37 PM

In America they have a ‘Clean Air Act’ that prevents any nonsense like this.

It’s about time something like it was introduced here, but then, I suppose Gunns and Forestry wouldn’t like it, so it is unlikely to get off the ground.

All those asthma sufferers will just have to close their windows again during the whole of autumn when Forestry carries out its 150 planned burns. It’s the only relief they’ll get.

Posted by Gerry Mander on 29/03/10 at 09:15 PM

Others can cut and paste too, Rita. Here is the second paragraph from Michelle Paine in The Mercury, 18 March 2010:

“Smoke was believed to have drifted from Victorian fuel reduction fires to compound high-intensity forest industry burns in the North-West.”

I would expect an industry supporter to quote only from The Examiner, which almost unfailingly reports in its favour. This paper can launch into suppostion. Remember the pages and pages it ran accusing greens of the graffiti and smoke bomb on the property of Gunns Chairman, John Gay? The report on the Big Smoke was just as hasty.

The Examiner and Rita have quoted EPA Director Warren Jones: “The plumes have spread across the north of the state and appear to stem from the 90 Mile Beach area of East Gippsland in Victoria where a number of planned burns are in progress,”

Note the qualification from Jones: “...appear to stem from…”

Now I will quote too from page 3 of The Examiner, 18 March 2010: “Both the Bureau of Meteorology and the Environmental Protection Authority confirmed yesterday that smoke had drifted across Bass Strait.”

Note: “...smoke had drifted across Bass Strait.”

What smoke? What proportion? This is the only reference to the bureau’s position in the article.

Well, plenty of open-minded people here are allowing the possibility that locally originating smoke mixed with Victorian smoke. In The Examiner, the bureau is not reported as blaming all of the Big Smoke here on Victorian burns, as Rita does.

Satellite images from 17 March reveal that the relatively small wisps of smoke curling southeast into the Tasman Sea from the Gippsland burns do not reach as far south as Wilsons Promontory; let alone Tasmania. This has been covered in detail in this forum. Discrepancies are also highlighted in this forum concerning the location of the burns cited in eastern Victoria.

Since information was pulled from the websites of Forestry Tasmania, Tas Fire Service and the EPA, there has been a dearth of information from state authorities.

I call on the Bureau of Meteorology to clarify its position on The Examiner’s claim; ie, to expand on the reported phrase “..confirmed yesterday that smoke had drifted across Bass Strait”. This is far from eliminating Tasmanian burns as a major source of the smoke experienced here. The bureau is an impartial authority that has a responsibility to investigate reports concerning its explanation of a very serious matter. To highlight the gravity, I will cut and paste again from The Examiner report lifted by Rita: “The Asthma Foundation was inundated with complaints from people affected by smoke blanketing northern Tasmania.” Surely, this controversy warrants careful investigation by the bureau and public clarification of its position.

Rita’s is a very narrow take from an industry supporter, ignoring relevant reports and images. S/he has been highly selective for one sarcastically calling others “award winning journos”. Truth seekers may cut and paste but must further investigate.

Posted by Bob Kendra on 29/03/10 at 09:33 PM

Rita, i can copy and paste a later media release from the Bureau published in the merc the next day -

[Senior meteorologist Lance Cowled said yesterday’s satellite picture showed smoke so “a certain amount of that could have drifted down over Bass Strait”.

“What we have got is a combination of smoke from Victoria and locally generated smoke. I can’t make a judgment on what was dominant,” said Mr Cowled, of the Bureau of Meteorology. He said it was possible smoke would linger into today.]

i hope you’re not a judge of these mysterious awards.

Posted by joey on 29/03/10 at 10:22 PM

Rita baby,
Please tell us of a decision made by the EPA in a matter relating to water or air against any large industrial polluter which has been of any benefit to the people of Tasmania.
Love John

Posted by john hawkins on 29/03/10 at 10:23 PM

Mark (#15), I had another look at your #112 in one of the other threads. You mention Guildford. I tend to think that the ‘Smoking Gun’ photo seems to show somewhere near Mole Creek:

I think this fits with John Hawkins’ account. What is not in doubt is the presence on the Tue evening of quite a bit of smoke which has trailed eastwards across the state. We can therefore accept that everyone in its path, has a valid complaint and that for them the problem was of local origin.

You, as far as I can see, have not actually said that the mainland smoke was responsible for the smoke-out that we have complained about, though you did mention a ‘double-whammy’ of the two being contributors. I think you made mention of wind directions on the Wed morning.

I have checked the wind directions recorded by the Bureau of Meteorology, for Tue afternoon 16th Mar. and Wednesday morning, 17th Mar.

The BOM wind direction observations for the Tue afternoon (3:00pm) record: Currie- WNW, Whitemark-WNW, Wynyard-NE, Burnie-N, Devonport-NNW,
Low Head-N, Bridport-No record, Swan Island-WSW and Eddystone Point-NNW.
I don’t know what to make of these – because they seem at odds with the photo showing the eastwards progress of the ‘Mole Creek’ smoke across the state by seven pm that evening.

I don’t think I can get my investigation much beyond this point. I’m left with the smoking gun, a gap in the weather and satellite records during the night of Tue 16 and early morning of Wed 17. Was the smoke that afflicted us solely ‘Mole Creek’ smoke, or a mix? What proportions? What path did it take, was it from Colac or East Gippsland? What to make of the lady whose son reported seeing three fires from Mt Barrow?

Anyway, in closing, Mark, just for fun, have a last look at the Mar 16 17:59 EST photo again. (If you have the time)

You’ll see it in better quality than what I was able to get onto TT. I’ve got it zoomed to 400% and it’s not too bad:
1 That’s a crazy twist in that thing I think you called a ‘contrail’. I love the way it seems to have a shadow ‘on the face of the deep’. It really looks as if it’s twisted. Something funny about it: see how it seems to ‘take on’ the colours of what is underneath it? Blue down the southern end and green above that big green swirly pattern?

2 What about that gorgeous dimple on the cloud to the south-east of the contrail. (west of Cape Barren I.)

3 While still on zoom, have another look at the ‘smoking gun’ and the big cloud that seems to obscure its source – where I think it’s in the Mole Creek area. Now transfer your gaze NW and hop over a few of the little clouds – can you see two small streams of smoke there? Is that about where Guildford is?

4 Lastly, and this must be of some use, if only to establish what the wind was doing to the smoke out off the shoreline in the hours before 7:00pm that Tue night: Can you see the ‘double line’ of smoke appearing to emanate from that burn (shown by Sentinel) just short of Stanley, beyond Sisters Beach? See how it goes all the way across to somewhere north of Weymouth?

Posted by Garry Stannus on 29/03/10 at 11:41 PM

These experts actually know that the wind on the day was from the north! Love Rita

The smoke cloud in question was drifting from the WEST, not the North and came from a Forestry burn at the back of the Mole Creek Karst!

‘Tell me lies, tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies.’

Love Gerry

Posted by Gerry Mander on 30/03/10 at 09:41 AM

Very nice to have met you yesterday Garry. I have checked my faithful diary and can tell you that the smoke was very thick, at ground level, enough to make our eyes sore etc. on the 17th March. Don’t know if that is of any help.

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