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ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 4 What’s happening? Demand is RISING......but Supply is LEVELLING, and will soon fall.  Developing world is rapidly industrializing (China, India)‏  Western world demand growth  The “easy oil” is gone  Logistical (financial) limits to what can ultimately be produced The fundamental factors of oil supply and demand are changing.

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ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 13 What’s the problem? So, if this is the issue... Peak oil means both higher oil prices and volatility in supply and price. 1. Over-dependence on oil 2. Short-term challenges 3. Long-term challenges...how is this specifically a problem for CITIES?

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ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 14 Why is this a problem for cities? Oil is an essential input: We are dependent on oil as a raw material. “Oil makes it possible to transport food to the...megacities of the world. “Oil also provides the plastics and chemicals that are the bricks and mortar of contemporary civilization...” –Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. 1991. Oil is an assumed input: Systems assume stability in oil supplies and prices. Oil is a non-interchangeable input (short-term): Alternatives to oil are still marginal. 1. Over-dependence on oil Peak oil means both higher oil prices and volatility in supply and price.

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ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 18 Why is this a problem for cities? 3. Long-term challenges How will the global economy adjust? (global trade flows) How will this impact regional and local economies? (relative advantage; provisioning systems) Peak oil means both higher oil prices and volatility in supply and price.

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ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 19 Why is this a problem for cities?  set meaningful budgets  make long-range land use and transportation plans  serve residents and the local business community...with such uncertainty surrounding the most important material to our global, regional and local economies? How can cities... “ Energy Uncertainty ” Peak oil means both higher oil prices and volatility in supply and price.

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CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities - 21 What’s happening? GHG concentrations are up dramatically, and RISING. The average global temperature is rising, with uncertain consequences.  Prior and continuning industrialization.  15 years since Earth Summit, little to show for it.  Local effects? Economic effects?  Trigger points? Feedback loops? We are changing some of the fundamental factors that influence global climate. ? ?

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CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities - 22 Why is this a problem for cities? Short-term challenges: –Mitigation: Stop making it worse! –Adaptation: Deal with first effects. Long-term challenges: –Adaptation: How will local and regional climates change? –Adaptation: How will this affect global/regional/local economy? “ Climate Uncertainty ” Dependence: –Ecosystem services. –Economy and society are subsets of the environment.

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CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities - 23 Overdependence on oil Short-term challenges (unexpected price changes, occasional shortages)‏ PEAK OIL Long-term challenges (how will global, regional and local economies respond? how can municipalities budget and plan?)‏ 1. Oil prices depend on oil flows. 2. Oil is more difficult to produce. 3. Oil supply is less stable. 4. OPEC can’t make up the slack anymore. WHAT’S THE ISSUE? WHY IS THIS A PROBLEM? Dependence on global ecosystem Short-term challenges (dealing with first effects)‏ GLOBAL WARMING Long-term challenges (long-term changes to climates and economies)‏ 2. We don’t know exactly how the global ecosystem will change in the long term. 1. We know that some effects are inevitable in the short term. WHAT’S THE ISSUE? WHY IS THIS A PROBLEM? What’s the problem? The “Climate-Peak Convergence” “Energy and Climate Uncertainty ”

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