/m/winter_meetings

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Royals also talking Billy Butler + prospects to Toronto. I don't see what a return would be that makes sense.

Not sure if this really makes sense for the Jays either. You could platoon Lind and Butler at DH, which would make a pretty good player, but doesn't seem like the best use of resources or roster spots.

The Cardinals tried him as a corner outfielder years ago in high-A ball, and the fact the experiment lasted only about two weeks suggests it didn't take. He hits for average but not power. The year he hit .351 in the Midwest League, I read an article that suggested it was nothing more than a remarkable run of soft flares. Would love to see him land in an organization that would give him a chance to get that one major-league appearance, but since he's a double-A backup catcher entering his seventh season I doubt it's ever going to happen.

All it takes to get any given minor league catcher into the majors is a couple of injuries at the right time.

He seemed like a nice kid while he was with the Pirates, and I hope he makes it.

When we talk about the value of a win, should we treat them linearly on a player basis? I don't mean - are all wins created equal? - I agree that the 90th win is likely worth more than the 60th, but: is a one WAR player worth one-third of a three WAR player? I'd say no.

That sounds like a lot for an organization coming off back-to-back-to-back dreadful seasons that really doesn't have an overloaded farm system and still has plenty of chaff on the big league roster to boot, but it's hard for me to say that I'm gonna miss any of these guys.

Marcos Mateo has to be like 30 -- hey, I get it - scouting report raves from the Dominican winter leagues... and the snakes have a rather nasty habit of identifying pitching talent... but he's been around forever, can't stay healthy, has never put up numbers, and I'm just glad to see him gone already, frankly... Every time there was a roster or waiver crunch - he was the constant "Why is that guy even on the roster anymore" dude.

I saw all I wanted to see out of Julio Borbon last year... he makes Scarborough Green look like a well-rounded ballplayer who just happens to run really fast, too.

AJ Morris is 27 and hasn't gotten out of AA.

Justin Bour looks nominally meh - but also hasn't gotten out of AA and it seems like generally speaking - if you're limited to the 1B/LF/DH spectrum, you probably can't be a 25 yo still looking for your first taste of AAA, regardless of how perfectly fine your numbers are.

I'm mainly surprised the Cubs only picked a single catcher in one of the minor league phases.... the organization is seriously thin on catchers -- I'm not just talking catchers that are passable emergency backup possibilities, I'm talking catchers that can even function as organizational fodder. They nabbed one.... but seriously, 33 yo JD Boscan was probably the 4th or 5th most promising backstop in the entire organization, even if everyone else hits their ceiling. If you were to rank organizational strength by position - it's awfully hard for me to see how any other team ranks below the Cubs behind the plate.

When we talk about the value of a win, should we treat them linearly on a player basis? I don't mean - are all wins created equal? - I agree that the 90th win is likely worth more than the 60th, but: is a one WAR player worth one-third of a three WAR player? I'd say no.

Well, yeah. An average player is above replacement, but he is not accumulating WAR or whatever fast enough that cloning him is going to lead to victory.

At some point not far above average unlimited quantities of a certain quality of player WILL lead to a likely postseason berth. Probably around 87-92 win level.

Personally, I think poor players hurt teams more than superstars help. A very below average player or position can cancel out a very good player. Hard to overcome. There have been a few teams that failed to win because of insufficient star power. The 1950s-60s White Sox were probably hurt by not having a Mantle level talent. I think the 1960s Giants scenario is more common, where weak-hitting infielders or the lack of a 3rd starter can't be overcome by several superstars.

This year's Cardinals could improve the lineup easily by replacing one horrible player (Pete Kozma) with a competent player. Whereas it's harder for a team that has pretty even quality throughout the lineup (Pirates?) to improve.

The value of dollars/win can't possibly be linear because of the limited number of roster spots and amount of playing time. Most simply, a 6 WAR player is not worth the same as 3 2-WAR players. He only would be on a team which couldn't find any other players with positive value. That would make all the analysis about a win being worth $5-million wrong. If one win is worth $5, then two wins is worth more than $10 and 5 wins is worth much more than $25.

I'm not sure how you would know what the right values are, though. For personal use, I would regress to replacement (minimum salary), average (average salary) and 90th percentile value with 90th percentile salary. That would be over all players, though, not just free agents.