All foreign policy decision-makers are essentially alike in
their decision-making process.

Each state's decision making process can be viewed as if
there were a single unitary actor making decisions.

Each unitary actor makes rational choices.

Rational Decision Making requires

Problem Recognition and Definition.
"Policy-makers perceive an external problem and attempt to define
objectively its distinguishing characteristics." Full information
is assumed to be available.

Goal Selection. Policy makers "must determine
what they want to accomplish." It requires that they rank "all
values . . . in a hierarchy from most to least preferred."

Identification of Alternatives. "Rationality also
requires the compilation of an exhaustive list of all available
policy options and an estimate of the costs association with each
alternative.

Choice. Selection of "the single alternative with
the best chance of achieving the desired goal(s). For this purpose,
the policymakers must conduct a rigorous means-ends, cost-benefit analyis
guided by an accurate prediction of the probable success of each option.

Possible Examples of Rational Decision Making

President John F. Kennedy's 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis
decisions.

President Bill Clinton's 1999 Kosovo intervention

Limitations on Rational Choice

Bounded rationality. We are human, prone to errors,
and don't know everything.

Cognitive dissonance. We tend to block out information
that does not agree with what we already believe to be accurate.

Overloaded policy agendas. Decision-makers handle many
issues at the same time and cannot spend enough time on any one of these
issues. The pressures of circumstance limit the ability to choose.

There is no single rational actor making decisions.
Central governments are complex bureaucracies. In the United States, the
U.S. President shares decision-making with the National Security Council,
Defense Department, State Department, Central Intelligence Agency, the Joint
Chiefs of Staff, and many other bureaucracies.

Bureaucracies are formal, hierarchical organizations.
There is a huge literature on bureaucracy beginning with Max Weber's ideal
type. The following cite several approaches to bureaucratic decision
making.

Groupthink. Let's everyone think alike. Small
groups of people under intense pressure tend to develop a fortress mentality
and defend the group against its outside critics.

History-Making Individuals Model of Decision Making

This
model looks at the great men of history: FDR, Churchill, Stalin, de
Gaulle, Hitler, Mussolini. Great men make history. Foreign
policy is shaped by the leaders who run their countries: George W. Bush,
Saddam Hussein, Gerhard Schroeder, Tony Blair, Vladimir Putin. If these
leaders are not as great as the first six, then the zeitgeist, the spirit
of the times, is not right. World War II put everyone on a different
pedestal than do times of peace, or relative peace.

Why do
leaders often make foolish decisions? Why do they make decisions that are
self-destructive to themselves and their country? For example, Hitler and
Hussein led their countries to disastrous consequences.

Procedural
Rationality refers to the realist's rational actor model; whereas instrumental
rationality is rational only if one accepts the leader's goals. From
Hitler's point of view, world conquest was rational. That's what he
wanted, so every decision that led in that direction was followed even if it led
to certain disaster in the long run.

Tools of State Power for the Conduct of Foreign Policy

Diplomacy

Foreign Aid

Foreign Trade

Propaganda

Cultural Exchange Programs

Intelligence Operations

Overt and Covert Operations

Subversion

Terrorism

Economic Warfare

Trade Wars

Price Fixing

Dumping

Trade Embargo

Seizure of Assets

Currency Manipulations

Denial of Raw Materials

Boycott

Breaking Diplomatic Relations

Gunboat Diplomacy

Military Maneuvers

Quarantine

Blockade

War

FOREIGN POLICY ACTORS WITHIN THE UNITED STATES

Public Actors Central Government
Actors within the Executive Branch:

Individuals

Head of State, Head of Government, Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense,
Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, Director of
Central Intelligence, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Ambassadors.

Foreign Policy Institutes of Major Research Universities, Think Tanks,
Corporate and Labor Executives, Leaders of the Opposition Political Parties, the
MEDIA, spokespeople for various ethnic and religious groups, interest groups,
and the public at large.

Various Voluntary Associations.

American Public Opinion. Various societal communities.
Jewish-Americans, Irish-Americans, etc.

Copyright Dr. Harold DamerowSenior Professor of Government and History
Coordinator of International StudiesUnion County College
Cranford, NJ 07016
August 27, 2010