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Forecasting and research of the financial market using Elliott Wave theory, economic cycles and demographics. Subscribe to our investment newsletter here.

Elliott Wave Technician Old World Portfolio – Return on capital

In 2018 our portfolio had 26.8% yearly return. Average cash holding on the portfolio was about 15%.

The Debt Bubble to implode With all of the debt problems around the world, specially in Europe, Japan and the US, a contagion can begin at any time now, and defaults in one country will spread to other countries. This is is truly frightening. If history is any guide expect deflation to follow.

US history offer two previous previous periods of deflation in terms of magnitude 1835 – 1842 and 1929 – 1932. During these periods the value of financial assets almost disappeared.

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Demographic spending trends are the key factors driving the economy of the developed consumer countries. These trends are predictable and can be used for forecasting. New generations of consumers have a predictable behavior with the spending wave peaking at the age of 47-49 and then followed by a decline.

Graph: Societe Generale Research

Reflect over what this means for real estate, stock markets and bond markets in Europe. Learn more how demographic trends can work for your long term investments in our investment newsletter.

Expect more bank runs in Europe Hold no bank deposit in the European Union. Cyprus is proof that deposit guarantees are worthless.

We email our subscribers immediately (within a minute) when we buy or sell in our portfolio.

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If you have investments or plan to invest in Europe you should learn more about the regions demographic profile and what it means for the future.

Japan is leading the demographic decline. Russia and the European Union are following.

By the time of Supercycle wave (a) low, America and the world will demand defense cuts as they never have before. Timing should be from late in the current decade to 2022-2023 where it should reach its intensity. The previous time in history this occurred was in the early 1930′s.

Free financial advise regarding defense related investments:Sell your defense stocks and other related investments. The best time for that type of investments should be around 2022-2023 at the earliest. See the full article here.

The Commodity Picture evaluate the most import issues facing civilization. Most people think “Peak Oil” and “Climate Change” are the most pressing issues. The truth is it’s water.

In depth look at water risk by environmental research and sustainability group Ceres and a comprehensive analysis from the Natural Resources Defense Council, which map areas at high risk of water shortage conflict. A close look at water supply and consumption in America’s largest cities, with focus on the thirty largest metropolitan areas.

The analysis identify ten cities that are likely to face severe shortages in the relatively near-term future. Learn more here.

Currency ETF’s and ETN’s are trading vehicles that make it easier to invest in currency trends, but research each one before you make any trades. See our investment newsletter or portfolio to find the ones we find the most suitable and how to use them. You can find under Education Center a complete overview called “Currency ETF’s and ETN’s”.

Western countries to follow Latin America’s 1990 – 2003 depression

Financial repression targets the producers of society, i.e., the middle class, and therefore harms the economy. By destroying savings with a zero percent interest rate policy, which reduces government borrowing costs, but deprives savers and pensioners of interest income, and prevents capital formation.

Surges in Central Government Public Debts and their Resolution: Advanced Economies and Emerging Markets, 1900-2011

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The Rothschild Brothers of London writing to associates in New York, 1863, laying the groundwork for the eventual passage of their catastrophic Federal Reserve Act on December 23, 1913:

“The few who understand the system will either be so interested in its profits or be so dependent upon its favors that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests.”

Perspective on US Debt

June of 2013: US National debt has exceeded 16.889 Trillion Dollars - a debt of $148,042 per taxpayer. This is also before factoring in the 125.126 Trillion Dollars of unfunded obligations in the form of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. This is a liability per taxpayer of $1,096,767.