000
FXUS65 KPUB 300954
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
354 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015
...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY...
CURRENTLY...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE LEADING EDGE ABOUT 60 OR SO MILES SOUTH OF THE
CO/NM BORDER. OVER THE PUB CWFA...NO PRECIP WAS BEING INDICATED BY
RADAR...AND MAINLY MID TO HI CLOUDINESS WAS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED AS DEWPTS WERE IN THE 60S OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...WITH
50-55F DWPTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. 40 DWPTS WERE GENERALLY NOTED
IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.
TODAY...
HI RES GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING SOME OF THE RAIN OVER NMNWD INTO FAR
S COLO THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH I BELIEVE SOME RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE BORDER...THE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES.
LATER TODAY...WITH HEATING AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1500
RANGE...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
REGION TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE OVER THE S SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ACROSS THE S SAN JUANS.
HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALL
OF THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY...AND BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE
OF ISOLD STORMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
TODAY...WITH U80S/90 ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS.
RAIN CHANCES BETTER TODAY FOR A FEW REASONS...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
BETTER AND DEEPER UPSLOPE...WITH WINDS AT 700 MB EVEN FROM THE EAST.
BETTER DEEPER MSTR IS IN PLACE AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE S SANGRES AND S SAN JUANS. HOWEVER...ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. NAM WANTS TO KEEP A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS OVER
THE SE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. BEST CHANCE I
BELIEVE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MOVING NORTH ACROSS COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DISSIPATION GENERALLY AROUND SUNSET. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP STORMS ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BEING TIED
TO INDIVIDUAL WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE LATEST GFS HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
FRIDAY...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. THE GFS
ALSO BRINGS A DISTURBANCE NORTH ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THIS DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES WITH INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES...HAVE JUST LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS NEXT 24H. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVE. ALL TAF SITES MAY SEE A PASSING TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS AND KALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH