Pac-10 football: Updating the Rose Bowl race

*** Just got back from Los Angeles and wanted to get this posted ASAP. My problem at this time of the year is that there’s a ton to blog about but little time to do it because of responsibilities for the Merc’s print product (Big Game, basketball, etc) …

Updating the Rose Bowl race, which is down to four teams:

Key games:

Nov. 21: Cal at Stanford and Oregon at Arizona
Nov. 28: Arizona at Arizona State
Dec. 3: Oregon State at Oregon
Dec. 5: Arizona at USC

Before I get to the team-by-team scenarios, a few notes:

1. I’m assuming that Oregon State beats Washington State.

2. There can be a three-team tie at 7-2 but not a four-team tie.

3. Disregarding No. 1 for a moment … and in an attempt to rock your world … there’s a way the league could finish with six teams tied at 6-3 — and only one result in the sequence is farfetched:

Through the back door: The Ducks might be able to lose to the Cats and still win the league — depending on what happens to Arizona and Stanford — but a loss to the Beavers would be far more problematic.

Must avoid: A two-team tie with Stanford.

*** Stanford (6-2)

Status: Needs help

Simplest path to Pasadena: There were six steps between Stanford and the Rose Bowl, and now there are four: Stanford beats Cal, Arizona beats Oregon, Oregon beats Oregon State and USC beats Arizona.

Individually, those all seem reasonable. But taken in total, the odds remain against Stanford.

Through the back door: It’s possible for Stanford to get to Pasadena by beating Cal and having two of the three above-mentioned results go the wrong way. But best I can tell, the Cardinal cannot win the league if OSU beats Oregon.

OSU would win a tiebreaker with Stanford … Arizona would win a tiebreaker with itself, Stanford and OSU … and the Beavers would win a tiebreaker with themselves, Stanford and Oregon.

Must avoid: A loss to Cal.

*** Oregon State (5-2)

Status: Needs help.

Simplest path to Pasadena: Beat Washington State and Oregon, hope Arizona loses. OSU would win tiebreakers with Stanford and Oregon.

Through the back door: It’s nailed shut. If the Beavers lose the Civil War, they’re done.

Must avoid: A loss to Oregon.

*** Arizona (4-2)

Status: Controls its own destiny.

Simplest path to Pasadena: Win out.

Despite the loss to Cal, the Wildcats would win the league if they run the table, because they’d have tiebreaker advantages over the Ducks and Cardinal.