Nearly 1 million people projected to make Lehigh Valley home by 2040

Baby boomers Diane Haviland and her husband, Ken Greene, had a solid retirement plan that included building a sprawling home on four acres in New Jersey, when they decided to go in a different direction.

They moved into downtown Easton, becoming part of a trend that has all three of the Lehigh Valley's cities growing steadily for the first time in decades, as empty-nesters choose the area for retirement and job-seekers come for what is expected to be tens of thousands of new opportunities health care, distribution and office support services.

That's the view of the future presented by the Lehigh Valley Planning Commission, whose projections, released Thursday, have the combined population of Lehigh and Northampton counties bulging by 26 percent from 647,232 in 2010 to more than 813,000 people by 2040.

The projection of roughly 8.5 percent growth per decade, while robust, is actually less than the commission's 2012 forecast that predicted 875,000 people by 2040, but planners say those projections were inflated by the housing boom in the early part of the century.

Leading the way in the latest forecast will be Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton, which, after finishing the 20th century in a four-decade flatline, are now projected to take on a combined 32,000 more residents in the next quarter century. Allentown's population of 118,000 is to become more than 134,000, while Bethlehem is expected to increase from 75,000 to 85,701. Haviland and Greene will have a lot more neighbors, too, as Easton's 26,800 becomes nearly 32,000 — about the number of people it had in 1960.

PHOTO GALLERY: Lehigh Valley cities to lead steady population growth

(April Bartholomew)

"We don't have to get into our car for everything and we can walk to a different restaurant to eat almost every night," said Haviland, 66, who gave up her New Jersey plot and moved into Easton's Centre Square in 2013. "This has exceeded all of our expectations. I can see why people are flocking to the cities. We love it."

That's not to suggest people are avoiding the Valley's suburbs. Townships clustered near the highways, such as Upper and Lower Macungie, Whitehall, Upper Saucon, Bethlehem, Forks and Palmer also are projected to have rapid growth.

Big gainers in the burbs include Upper Macungie Township, where 20,063 residents is expected to grow to 32,220. That's a 61 percent increase in three decades. The percentage increase in Upper Saucon Township, at 70 percent, is expected to be even larger from 14,808 to 25,238 residents.

Though Easton will see steady growth for the first time in decades, it will still drop on the list of the Valley's most populated municipalities. It lost its longtime third position in 2010 when Lower Macungie blew by, but new estimates have Whitehall Township and Upper Macungie out-populating Easton by 2040.

That's not surprising, said Peter A. Rogerson, geography and biostatistics professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo. Rogerson said in addition to all those retiring baby boomers, millennials and young professionals will be driving much of this growth, whether it be in downtown apartments or in rapidly developing suburbs that present themselves as extensions of cities.

"In a lot of cases they're moving for work, but they also want accessibility," Rogerson said. "It's definitely a change in preference by a generation that wants a greener, healthier lifestyle."

For that reason, unlike the McMansion boom that ended a decade ago, suburban growth is more likely to come in townhouses and apartments over the next 20-plus years, said Becky Bradley, executive director of the Planning Commission. In fact, by percentage, most Valley townships will continue to grow faster than the cities, but Allentown and Bethlehem still rise to the top in sheer numbers of people moving in. After the three cities experienced virtually no growth between 1960 and 2000, a growth trend that first appeared in Allentown in 2010 appears to be here to stay, Bradley said.

"Well, we know people in the Valley aren't willing to give up their cars, but increasingly they do want to live in walkable communities with access to shopping restaurants, trails and recreation," Bradley said. "That means more town homes and apartments in our cities, but also in some of our townships and boroughs as the cities run out of space."

Bradley said much of that will be filled by empty-nesters like Haviland looking toward retirement, but also with recent college graduates who must rent because of student debt, which averages more than $37,000, according to nationally statistics, doesn't allow them to buy.

Using statistics tracking the U.S. Census, local municipalities and trends, the Planning Commission revises its population and employment forecasts about every five years. It helps local leaders determine where roads should be improved or built, whether more open space and trails are needed, what type of housing should be added and where it should be built.

And while a healthy increase in population is generally a sign that the local economy is strong, it comes with a double-edged sword. The impact can be deep, from the toll more traffic will take on roads, to the demand on local school systems to costs of increasing water and sewer systems to handle more people.

Jobs coming

The same forecast also predicts how the Valley's workforce may change. The health care field will continue to dominate the job market, adding nearly 32,000 new jobs, and while some will be at the region's hospitals and doctor's offices, many will be in the growing number of nursing homes, assisted living facilities and in-home personal care.

Coming in a distant second will be a projected 13,000 new jobs in waste management and administrative services, which includes the growing field of trash removal and recycling, and support staff for offices.

As evident by the growing number of warehouses and distribution centers that line Interstate 78 and Route 100, nearly 11,400 new jobs are projected in transportation and warehousing.

Occupations that are expected to stay flat or lose positions in the Valley include real estate, rental and leasing sales, federal government and jobs in the military.

But Bradley cautioned that while the updated numbers are helpful in preparing for the future, demographics and preferences can change quickly. For example, the current forecast model calls for the number of retail sales jobs to grow by more than 10,000. With the arrival of national names such as Whole Foods Market and Nordstrom Rack only recently finding the Lehigh Valley, that increase seems to make sense. But Bradley suggests that number may already be unreliable because as e-commerce surges, the retail market could undergo drastic change, even before the Planning Commission does its next forecast.

Don Cunningham, executive director of the Lehigh Valley Economic Development Corp., noted the explosion of warehouse and logistics jobs could not have been predicted a decade ago. But with American consumers buying goods online and expecting delivery in two days, the 14,000 transportation and warehouse jobs in 2010 has bulged to 25,000, he said. It might be logical to expect that growth to continue, except the arrival of robotics in the coming years will certainly replace some people with machines, he said.

Cunningham and Bradley agreed that we are now in an atmosphere of unprecedented change.

"Automation and technology is changing so fast. I'm glad the Planning Commission has to make these projections and not us," Cunningham said. "The way things are changing, looking beyond two or three years is like looking into a very murky crystal ball."

Haviland doesn't need a crystal ball to predict her future. She's already installed an elevator in the downtown home she never thought she wanted so that her golden years won't be hampered by having to climb stairs.

The Lehigh Valley will continue its run of steady growth as Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton join the region's flourishing suburbs in taking on new residents, according to the latest projections by the Lehigh Valley Planning Commission. The projections forecast that the combined population of Lehigh and Northampton counties will bulge by 26 percent to more than 813,000 people by 2040. Here's a look at some of the biggest gainers.

THIS INFO GOING INTO GRAPHIC

GROWING FAST

Top Five Growing Valley Municipalities by Residents

Municipality/2010/2040/Gain

1. Allentown – 118,032 — 134,044 — 16,012

2. Upper Macungie – 20,063 — 32,220 — 12,157

3. Bethlehem – 74,982 — 85,701 — 10,719

4. Upper Saucon Township – 14,808 — 25,238 — 10430

5. North Whitehall Township – 15,703 — 23,973 — 8,270

Top Five Growing Valley Municipalities by Percentage

1. Upper Saucon Township – 14,808 — 25,238 — 70.4%

2. Lower Nazareth Township – 5,674 —9,480 — 67.1%

3. Allen Township – 4,269 — 7,061 — 65.4%

4. Upper Macungie – 20,063 —32,220 — 60.6%

5. Lower Mount Bethel Township – 3,101 — 4,901 — 58%

Source: Lehigh Valley Planning Commission

FIVE THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT LVPC'S POPULATION FORECAST

1. Easton is expected to be surpassed in population by Whitehall Township by 2020, and by Upper Macungie Township before the 2040 U.S. Census.

2. Allentown will gain the most people, taking in more than 16,000 additional residents by 2040.

3. Upper Saucon Township is forecast to gain the most, by percentage, growing by 70 percent, to more than 25,000 people by 2040.

4. None of the 62 Valley municipalities will lose population. Chapman, with 199 residents, narrowly misses that dubious distinction by increasing to 199 in 2040, after losing a handful of residents before 2020.

5. Lehigh County is expected to grow faster that Northampton County, taking on 90,897 more residents by 2040, compared to Northampton County's 75,058.