Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Quotes (our own) for a 363 Point Down Day

If today's 363 point decline in the Dow has you remotely rattled, here are some excerpts from stuff we wrote over just the past month to help you keep the market in perspective:

".... you should expect substantially more volatility -- for whatever reason(s) -- in 2018."

"Please keep in mind, however, that -- by healthy necessity -- even the strongest of bull markets tend to endure multiple corrections before they're through."

".... here's the thing folks, if a decline in stocks over any six-week, or six-month for that matter, period during an ongoing bull market equates to raining on your parade, well, for one, you've been dangerously lulled to sleep by last year's volatility drought, and, for two, if this bull market has much more to run it'll absolutely need to take a breather (read correction) every now and again."

"While, as discussed in Part 2, we like the macro setup going forward, we believe that the likelihood ofa repeat of 2017 (in terms of volatility [lack thereof]) is very low indeed."

"Given the sector's outsized returns in 2017, we think that it'll take outsized hits (relative to other sectors) when volatility visits the market, and profits are taken, in 2018."

".... generally speaking, the fixed income market is where we look to house the portion of client portfolios where safety (shelter from volatility) is our top priority. We generally look for growth (and volatility) from the equity markets."

"It's not the least bit important to us that the market continues its bullish march into 2018, as our analysis presently suggests it may (with, by the way, substantially more volatility than we experienced in 2017 [it'll be uncomfortable, but healthy!]). What's important to us is that we see things as they are, not as how we, or others, might like them to be."

"The macro fundamental setup along with the longer-term technical trends exposed within the charts suggest that probabilities support further equity market gains during the course of 2018. Although we cannot emphasize enough the huge unlikelihood that they'll occur amid the historic dearth of volatility we experienced in 2017."