tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-199496762015-03-31T14:47:11.621+00:00demography.matters.blogAdminnoreply@blogger.comBlogger599125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-27884164079706659082015-03-31T06:31:00.002+00:002015-03-31T06:31:51.761+00:00Is Finland's Economy Suffering From Secular Stagnation?
"After the Great Depression, secular stagnation turned out to be a figment of economists’ imaginations........it is still too soon to tell if this will also be the case after the Great Recession. However, the risks of secular stagnation are much greater in depressed Eurozone economies than in the US, due to less favourable demographics, lower productivity growth, the burden of fiscal Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-55870806260136757112015-03-26T03:48:00.001+00:002015-03-26T04:06:20.302+00:00On Jollibee, the Philippines, and diaspora economicsOver on my blog this evening, I noted that Philippines I based fast food chain Jollibee was set to open its first Canadian location later this year in Toronto. Apparently part of the chain's plans for global exchange expansion, with more locations slated to open up in the United States, Europe, Japan, and the Middle East, the Toronto restaurant is being created as part of a diaspora events red Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-70577996472972064482015-03-25T03:04:00.000+00:002015-03-25T03:04:27.682+00:00Two news articles on the demographic exception that is FranceTonight I thought I'd share two links to English-language articles taking a look at the demographic exception that is France, specifically to a period TFR now somewhat higher than the United States'.
The first is Noah Smith's Bloomberg View article "Fixing America's Baby Bust". In this article, the United States is contrasted negatively with France.
What is France’s secret sauce? It helps to Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-78789345340377624262015-03-24T01:22:00.000+00:002015-03-24T12:43:32.115+00:00On the case of Open BordersLast Monday at the American libertarian blog The Volokh Conspiracy, Ilya Somin made a post announcing his support for the thesis of the Open Borders NGO that migration should be as unhindered as possible. Linking to various authors' arguments in favour of this thesis, Somin makes the argument that the tendency worldwide should be not to raise barriers to migration but to lower them.
As the Open Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-59660740526180752942015-03-18T03:57:00.000+00:002015-03-18T04:00:52.457+00:00Some St. Patrick's Day notes on how Irish immigrants became integrated into TorontoI'm writing this post in the dying minute of St. Patrick's Day. (No, I'm not celebrating today. I save that for the weekend.) I found a few interesting links on the subject of the holiday. I liked this CBC analysis of the extent to which the modern holiday is actually a product of Irish-Americans seeking to consolidate their community and assert their identity in the face of a skeptical majority,Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-35142565637765071412015-03-11T19:55:00.000+00:002015-03-11T19:55:15.205+00:00Why Is Spain's Population Loss An Economic Problem? "Growth theory was invented to provide a systematic way to talk about and to compare equilibrium paths for the economy. In that task it succeeded reasonably well. In doing so, however, it failed to come to grips adequately with an equally important and interesting problem: the right way to deal with deviations from equilibrium growth……..if one looks at substantial more-than-quarterly departures Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-61169493871006441542015-03-04T03:55:00.001+00:002015-03-04T03:55:33.383+00:00On the potential demise of the quinquennial census of AustraliaThe Guardian's Oliver Milman reported last month that the Australian Bureau of Statistics might reduce the frequency of national census-taking. At present, an Australian census is held every five years, the most recent being in 2011. The plan to shift to a ten-year census cycle, with frequent surveys in between censuses to maintain data, is apparently quite controversial, for the same sort of Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-71666568200560265882015-03-03T04:01:00.000+00:002015-03-03T04:02:06.005+00:00"The Tragedy of Canada's Census"Aarian Marshall's CityLab article does a great job of examining the consequences and the causes of Canada's census mayhem. Reducing the amount of hard data reduces the ability of governent to deal with issues. That might have been the whole point.
Rosana Pellizzari, the medical officer of health of Peterborough, Ontario, knows a thing or two about bad data. The public health office she oversees Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-70915902175033298302015-02-21T04:56:00.003+00:002015-02-21T04:56:58.021+00:00Three links on African immigration to China1. I'd like to point people towards Africans in China, a blog maintained by researcher Roberto Castillo. This blog concentrates on the African immigrant community in Guangzhou, its development and its issues.
2. Yucheng Liang's study "The causal mechanism of migration behaviors of African immigrants in Guangzhou: from the perspective of cumulative causation theory", published in 2014 in The Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-79628467286507624692015-02-19T04:57:00.000+00:002015-02-19T04:57:26.788+00:00"Taiwan's Growing Multiculturalism"Sinclaire Prowse's article in The Diplomat noting the continuing evolution of Taiwan, via international migration, into a more multicultural society is worth a read. A sample below:
Migration trends over the past two decades have seen an impressive increase in the number of foreign permanent residents in Taiwan from 1,649 in 2005 to 10,811 at the end of 2014 (excluding residents from mainland Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-33020582179224842662015-02-12T04:59:00.000+00:002015-02-12T04:59:03.386+00:00"Depopulation: An Investor's Guide to Value in the Twenty-First Century"Earlier this month, Marginal Revolution's Tyler Cowen linked to an interesting-sounding new e-book available on the Amazon Kindle platform, Depopulation: An Investor's Guide to Value in the Twenty-First Century by Philip Auerswald and Joon Yun.
Depopulation is a solid, inexpensive, and fairly quick read. Just 70 pages in length, Auerswald and Yun's e-book does what it promises in providing itsRandy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-40582244088020372222015-02-10T04:57:00.000+00:002015-02-10T04:57:33.555+00:00"A story of drinkers, genocide and unborn girls"I wanted to briefly note that, over at Quartz, David Bauer has an interactive essay taking a look at the different factors in different areas of the world which lead to widely varying sex ratios. Female-selective abortion, male-heavy migration, changing patterns of life expectancy, demographic trends in the BRICs versus ost-Communist countries versus high-income countries--it's all there.Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-48391861836725861282015-02-06T04:58:00.000+00:002015-02-06T04:58:48.852+00:00"A possible compromise on the census?"Aaron Wherry of MacLean's notes the defeat of a parliamentarian's bill to reinstate Canada's long-form census, and notes said parliamentarian's proposed compromise.
Ted Hsu’s bill to reinstate the mandatory long-form census was defeated last night by a vote of 147 to 126. Every opposition MP voted in favour, but nearly every Conservative voted against—Michael Chong was the only Conservative to Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-9941593774451544442015-02-05T04:57:00.000+00:002015-02-05T04:57:04.811+00:00"The Year Having Kids Became a Frivolous Luxury"Back on the 22nd of January, Slate's Jessica Grose posted at the Double XX blog looking at changing attitudes towards parenthood in the United States.
There have been many prominent pregnancy and child care–related issues in 2014, from the UPS pregnancy discrimination case that was recently argued in front of the Supreme Court to the publicity around the scheduling software that makes child careRandy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-88893313523766020992015-02-04T04:59:00.000+00:002015-02-04T05:03:57.766+00:00Three links from The Diplomat on demographic issues in AsiaI discovered the Internet magazine The Diplomat, concerned with affairs in the Asia-Pacific region, via Robert Farley's posts at Lawyers, Guns and Money. Three recent posts at The Diplomat have dealt with demographic issues Demography Matters has looked at in brief.
Paul R. Burgman Jr.'s "China: Embracing Africa, But Not Africans" makes the argument that racism, and problems with integration of Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-23832588601054725242015-02-03T04:59:00.001+00:002015-02-03T04:59:34.291+00:00"Two days to save the long-form census"Aaron Wherry of MacLean's reports.
On Wednesday evening, the House of Commons will vote on whether or not to reinstate the mandatory long-form census. Perhaps all that’s standing between Ted Hsu’s private member’s bill and approval in principle at second reading is fewer than a dozen Conservative votes.
Hsu introduced his bill last fall. It received its first hour of debate in November and its Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-74105658428950818392015-01-30T04:59:00.000+00:002015-01-30T04:59:29.210+00:00"Damage from cancelled census as bad as feared, researchers say"On the front page of today's issue of Toronto's The Globe and Mail was Tavia Grant's article reporting that the scrapping of the long-form census once collected by Statistics Canada, ordered by the Canadian federal government for inscrutable reasons of its own, has really caused a lot of damage.
The cancellation of the mandatory long-form census has damaged research in key areas, from how Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-47078642977553152242015-01-28T04:59:00.002+00:002015-01-28T05:03:28.044+00:00"Greece: The Impact of Austerity on Migration"A Marginal Revolution commenter linked to a study at the blog Multiplier Effect by Gennaro Zezza providing hard numbers on the scale of Greek population decline and emigration. (Germany seems to be a major destination.)
The Hellenic Statistical Authority (ElStat) has recently released the new quarterly data on employment and the labor force, which includes a measure of the population aged 15 or Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-87649232076983051112015-01-27T04:59:00.000+00:002015-01-27T05:06:05.794+00:00On why demographics mean a near-term recovery in Greece is unlikelyYesterday's Greek legislative election which placed a SYRIZA-dominated government in charge of the country got quite a lot of attention for a lot of things in the blogosphere. Some, like blogger Charlie Stross, wondered if SYRIZA's election might lead to a global economic shift. Others have noted ways in which the new prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, is breaking from the past, rejecting a Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-33120870055595429192015-01-22T04:58:00.000+00:002015-01-22T05:20:49.517+00:00Notes on Newfoundland and LabradorMy post earlier this week about the inevitability of large-scale out-migration from Atlantic Canada, overlooked the remarkable economic growth of Newfoundland and Labrador. Etienne Grand’Maison and Andrew Sharpe's July 2013 paper for the Centre for the Study of Living Standards, "A Detailed Analysis of Newfoundland and Labrador's Productivity Performance, 1997-2010: The Impact of the Oil Boom" Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-65784609148557426392015-01-21T04:57:00.001+00:002015-01-21T04:57:26.216+00:00On "Why the Muslim 'No-Go-Zone' Myth Won't Die"The Atlantic's David A. Graham has an article up taking an in-depth look at the concept of ubiquitous "no-go zones" run by Muslims in western Europe. First introduced to the mainstream by Fox News television coverage, Graham notes that this pre-Eurabian concept comes from the conflation of three separate, misunderstood, phenomena.
It seems to stem from two or maybe three real phenomena. The Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-7105828833939946132015-01-20T04:59:00.000+00:002015-01-20T05:12:46.513+00:00On the inevitability of out-migration from Atlantic CanadaHalifax, capital of the Atlantic Canadian province of Nova Scotia, has some serious demographic issues. In May of last year, the Halifax Chronicle-Herald's Brent Bundale and Davene Jeffrey summarized the findings of the Halifax Index 2014. Bundale had noted in 2012 that a relatively strong Haligonian economy could be threatened by labour shortages. This has become a serious problem.
Halifax is Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-19597510957564640282015-01-17T23:48:00.001+00:002015-01-19T05:04:23.016+00:00On what the attenuation of the Alberta advantage might meanOne of the most popular posts on Demography Matters is my November 2012 post "On the Albertan advantage over the United States". There, I noted that the exceptional prosperity of that Canadian province's oil-based economy was attracting very large number of migrants from across North America, including from the United States. A March 2014 Global News report drawing upon recent Statistics Canada Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-85214699736485420562015-01-16T04:55:00.001+00:002015-01-16T04:56:26.117+00:00"Humanity’s Future: Below Replacement Fertility?"Reading my Inter Press Service RSS feed this evening, I came across Joseph Chamie's essay arguing that, on current trends, the entire world may shift to below-replacement fertility in a surprisingly short time. At the end of his analysis, he concludes that this trend is likely to spread worldwide.
According to United Nations medium-variant population projections, by mid-century the number of Randy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19949676.post-53085744215181567412015-01-14T04:59:00.000+00:002015-01-14T05:07:27.030+00:00On Steve Emerson, #foxnewsfacts, and bad pop demographySteven Emerson's gaffe about the British city of Birmingham, stating in a live television interview that "[I]n Britain, it’s not just no-go zones, there are actual cities like Birmingham that are totally Muslim where non-Muslims just simply don’t go in", has gotten global coverage. (For the record, in Birmingham, the United Kingdom's second-largest city by population, Muslims make up 14.3% of theRandy McDonaldhttps://plus.google.com/109311889113763967482noreply@blogger.com3