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The 68-team field for the 2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is locked in and March Madness is set to begin shortly. Every school that made the Big Dance is currently thinking that it can make a run through the Final Four and cut down the nets while “One Shining Moment” plays, but only a select few programs have a realistic chance of accomplishing this goal. During a flurry of games over the next few weeks, dreams will be dashed left and right as buzzer-beaters swish through nets, Cinderellas make their miraculous runs and brackets everywhere go bust.

Despite the NCAA Tournament’s propensity for upsets, there have been very few occasions where low-seeded sqauds advance to the latter stages of the event. No team given a No. 8 seed or worse has ever reached the national title game and only two programs seeded above the No. 3 line have managed to claim a championship. Teams in the No. 10 and No. 12 slots have been upsetting their respective better-seeded No. 7 and No. 5 counterparts on a regular basis (these are the two most likely spots on the bracket for upsets over the last 15 years), but don’t usually make it into the second or third weekend of the tourney.

The sportsbooks have clearly accounted for these trends when setting odds for each team to win it all in 2018, as Kentucky (23-1) and West Virginia (35-1)—both No. 5 seeds—are the only schools worse than a No. 4 seed found in the top-15 odds list. Villanova, a No. 1 seed after compiling a 30-4 campaign and cruising to a Big East tournament victory, is the odds-on favorite at 4-1 to win its second championship in three years. Duke is right behind the Wildcats at 5.5-1, an interesting line considering it was bounced from the ACC tourney in the semifinals and earned a No. 2 seed after a 25-6 season. Virginia (6-1), Michigan State (7.5-1) and Michigan (10-1) round out the top-five. Check out the complete list of national championship odds for every team:

The Blue Devils have as many first weekend exits (three) as they do Sweet 16 runs in the last six years. They cut down the nets in 2015 as a No. 1 seed, but they haven't had much recent success as a No. 2 seed, getting bounced by the South Carolina Gamecocks in the second round last year and losing to Lehigh in the opening round back in 2012. Duke's best showing as the second seed across the last six tournaments was an Elite Eight loss to eventual champion Louisville in 2013.

North Carolina—last year’s NCAA Tournament winner and ACC runner-up—beat the Blue Devils this past Friday and also earned a No. 2 seed for the Big Dance, but the Tar Heels are only 20-1 to repeat as champions, the ninth-lowest odds in the field. They'll have a tough journey back to the Final Four coming out of the West region, with a potential matchups with Michigan in the Sweet 16 and Xavier in the Elite Eight before they can move on to face the South region champion in San Antonio. There's bad news for fans in Chapel Hill, however, as top overall seed Virginia is projected to win the South region. The Cavaliers won the only regular season matchup between these ACC rivals back in January and the Wahoos completed the season sweep in the finals of the conference tournament on Saturday.

Of course, anything could happen during the Big Dance. Jon Price of SportsInformationTraders.com is an expert when it comes to March Madness, as the pro handicapper is one of the best in the business at predicting winners this time of year. That's why he was asked for his take on which team has what it takes to navigate through the field and win it all. Before getting to the Vegas pro’s national championship pick, take a look at the complete schedule, TV and live stream information, printable bracket,updated odds on every game and more for the 2018 NCAA Tournament:

Todd Fuhrman found that more than $10 billion could be wagered on the NCAA tournament this year, although most of the action won’t be at a sportsbook betting window:

The @AmerGamingAssn estimates Americans will wager more than $10 billion on the upcoming 2018 NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Of that $10 billion, only about $300 million (3%) – will be wagered legally through Nevada sports books.

Picking a March Madness winner isn’t easy by any means, as it’s tough for even the best teams in the tournament to win six games in a row. There are no second chances in this event, so one poor shooting night or an ill-timed injury can completely sink a program’s title chances. You don’t have to look back far to see instances of this. Many thought that Michigan State was poised for a deep run in 2016 as a No. 2 seed, but the Spartans were ousted in the first-round after No. 15-seeded Middle Tennessee pulled off one of the greatest upsets in the history of the Big Dance. The Blue Raiders were a 17-point underdog, but hit some incredible shots and forced some key misses on the other end to outright win, 90-81, decimating an overwhelming majority of brackets as a result.

Of course, a No. 15 ousting a No. 2 isn’t something you see too often, but it has happened eight times since 1985. Witnessing a No. 14 take down a No. 3 seed is slightly more common, as this is something that has occurred 21 times across over half the NCAA Tournaments (18 of 33) since the field expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. The only upset combination that hasn’t been seen is a No. 16 seed knocking off a No. 1, which is why taking one of the four top-seeded schools is the safest bet to make. When picking a potential winner this year, you would be wise to narrow your choices down to Villanova, Xavier, Virginia and Kansas based purely on historical outcomes. 21 of the 33 tournament winners and 12 runner-ups have come out of the No. 1 spot since the 1985 expansion to the modern format.

ESPN Stats & Info pointed out that Virginia and Villanova—the top two overall seeds—have the best chance to win the 2018 NCAA Tournament according to their BPI metric:

Top-ranked Virginia is the BPI favorite to cut down the nets in San Antonio, with a 23% chance to win the national title.

Many pundits will find a variety of things to nitpick and criticize about all of these programs and give a plethora of reasons why they can be upset as early as the first weekend, but it’s pretty close to a sure thing that all four will advance to past the first weekend. Since 1985, 18 No. 1 seeds have lost in the Round of 32 against a No. 8 or No. 9 seed, although more than half of those upsets were prior to 2000.

The Elite Eight is where things get dangerous for top seeds, as there have been plenty of upsets here, including a few massive ones. Since 1985, three No. 11 seeds and a No. 10 seed that have managed to beat a No. 1 seed to make the Final Four. This is also the round where No. 1 seeds can first see an opponent seeded better than a No. 4, which is often a dangerous proposition. Teams seeded No. 2 and 3 have had a lot of success in the NCAA tournament, winning a combined eight championships—four apiece—since the expansion to 64 teams. However, there’s no guarantee that these high-seeded programs will even make it far enough to challenge the No. 1, as last year proved. Kentucky was the only No. 2 seed to live up to its projected outcome in 2017, while Duke and Louisville failed to even make it out of the second round.

It’s worth noting that only one Final Four has featured all No. 1 seeds, and that took place a decade ago in 2008. It’s a good bet that this year’s Big Dance won’t buck the trend of at least one top seed falling short, which is why you’ll need to narrow down your choice to the school that has the path of least resistance to San Antonio.

Dick Jerardi highlighted how great ‘Nova has been over the last five seasons:

Villanova last 5 seasons. 180 games. 159-21. Three Big East Tournament titles, four regular season championships. Won 5 in-season tournaments, 20-0 in Big 5, never lost two straight, one national title. Truly one of the great runs in college basketball history.

According to Jon Price, that appears to be Villanova. The Wildcats—which were deemed worthy of the second-overall seed in the tourney and the top spot in the East region—will be taking a relatively short trip across the state of Pennsylvania to open March Madness against the winner of a First Four matchup between LIU Brooklyn and Radford and then would play the winner of eighth-seeded Virginia Tech and ninth-seeded Alabama. None of these opponents should give ‘Nova anything more than flashes of danger, so fans should feel safe making plans to travel to Boston for the Sweet 16. They probably should extend their stay through the Elite Eight as well considering the Wildcats' most likely foes for those rounds are fourth-seeded Wichita State or fifth-seeded West Virginia in the Sweet 16 and No. 2 Purdue or No. 3 Texas Tech in the Elite Eight.

A quick glance at the KenPom.com rankings reveals that none of these squads—especially none of potential pre-Elite Eight opponents—are really in the same class as Villanova. The 2016 champs feature the top offense and a highly respectable defense that grades out as No. 21 in the nation after adjusting for efficiency. Purdue is the only program that could conceivably hang with the Wildcats due to their No. 2 offense and No. 28 defense. However, as long as Jalen Brunson is playing up to his usual capabilities—the junior guard averaged 19.4 points, 4.7 assists and 3.1 rebounds per game in 2017-18—there’s little chance that the Boilermakers, or any other possible foe before the Final Four, will be able to keep pace with ‘Nova for 40 minutes.

Corey Price noted that there are only five other teams besides the Wildcats that fall inside the top-25 of both Ken Pomeroy’s offensive and defensive rankings:

Teams in the NCAA Tournament that are in the KenPom top 25 in both defensive efficiency and offensive efficiency: Duke, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan State, Villanova, Virginia

After beating Providence for the conference title, head coach Jay Wright noted that his roster is finally healthy in time for the NCAA Tournament, as per the New York Post:

Now that we’ve got everybody back, we’re back kind of playing how we did before the injuries. So it’s just a weird year that way. But it’s kind of interesting now. I think we feel we’re a new team rather than a team that’s kind of stale at the end of the year.

Things are far from certain once the action shifts to San Antonio for the final two games, but Villanova is the most complete team in the field and gives bettors the best opportunity to make a return on national championship bet. The roster, led by Brunson, is laden with veteran talent and also features another legit NBA talent in Mikal Bridges. The Wildcats have the size to bang inside and numerous shooters capable of stretching the defense. Factor in Wright pacing the sidelines—he’s one of the great active coaches at the NCAA level right now—and a hunger to avenge last year’s shortcomings (the team was bounced in the second-round by Wisconsin despite being the top overall seed) and you have the recipe for a national championship victory. It may not be the most exciting pick or return a boatload of money on your initial wager, but it's the most likely outcome and will help you cash your betting slip or win your bracket pool if the Wildcats hoist the trophy as the 2018 champions.