Will Hillary Clinton surprise everyone and win in Wisconsin? Can Barack Obama beat back Hillary's late challenge? Since my evening meeting got canceled, I'll be live blogging the Wisconsin poll results. Of course we're also looking at Washington and Hawaii, but Washington's Democratic delegates have already gone to Obama. There won't be much drama in the Republican races in Wisconsin and Washington, but we'll keep an eye on them as well.

Updates will come in reverse chronological order, as normal (CST) ...

9:37 - Calling it a night. Looks like a solid win for Obama, one that will help him in two weeks in Texas and Ohio. Hillary can just about hit the panic button now. If she can't win both Texas and Ohio on March 4th, the Democratic Party will start calling for her withdrawal to avoid the convention meltdown. I'll have more tomorrow.

9:22 - The splits look to be holding up. With 40% of the precincts reporting, Obama is winning by 13 points, while McCain is up 18.

9:19 - "We're going to have to parent better, turn off the TV, put away the video games"? Well, I can't argue with that, but it isn't the role of a President or the government to dictate that.

9:14 - Is he ad-libbing? He looked lost for a moment, as if he forgot what he wanted to say -- on the point that inspiration isn't everything.

9:09 - He just got done talking about how he's going to subsidize health care, then he talked about how bad the VA is. Well, that's government-subsidized health care -- that's the model.

9:05 - CNN is giving free coverage to the whole stump speech. Hillary could have a real complaint here, as could John McCain. Are they going to give Obama a full hour here? We're already halfway there.

9:04 - Free college education for people who do community service? I'd like to see the expenses for that and how he intends to pay for it, since it's cost on both ends.

8:55 - His faith in the American people has been vindicated -- because they're voting for him? It really is all about him, isn't it?

8:50 - Why did Obama run this cycle instead of waiting until he had more experience? "I'm running because of what Dr. King called the fierce urgency of now... Our planet is in peril." But why does that make him the best candidate to address the Fierce Urgency of Now? He never quite gets around to explain that.

8:48 - Michael Stickings, one of the best of the progressive bloggers, is also live-blogging.

8:46 - Hope, change, yada yada yada. Even some of Obama's crowd looked bored when CNN panned the camera around the room.

8:39 - Obama leads by eleven with 8% reporting, 55-44. McCain is still up by 20. Paul still has 4%.

8:22 - CNN projects Obama as the Wisconsin winner. The question will be in how big the split will be in delegates.

8:19 - "I will work every day to ensure that America is not deceived by an eloquent but empty call for change."

8:18 - Barack Obama will win big in Wisconsin, it seems. He won men by 61%-35% and women by 51%-49%.

8:16 - John McCain's giving a good speech. He talks about his experience and how he knows how things work, and that he knows who he is. "I haven't lived a day when I haven't been proud, proud, of my country."

8:02 - CNN's exit polling is showing a big win in Wisconsin ...

8:00 - Polls closing; CNN calls Wisconsin for McCain, which means it must be a large margin involved. They think Obama may be leading in Wisconsin based on the exit polling.

7:47 - CNN's showing the big problem facing the Democrats. Even if one candidate runs the table from here on out on a 55-45 basis, neither can pull significantly ahead of the other.

7:37 - Here are some interesting numbers CNN's releasing from their exit polls. Voters under 30: Obama wins, 73-27. Over 60? Clinton wins 60-39. Huckabee and McCain both win 45% among conservatives, which indicates McCain should win this in a walk.

7:25 - CNN wants to make a big deal about the Republican race, but let's keep this in mind -- John McCain only needs to get 35% of the vote from here out to win the nomination before the convention. It's over.

7:20 - Jim Geraghty hears that the first two waves of exit polling show Obama winning Wisconsin 60-40. A couple of things to keep in mind: the first two waves of exit polling showed John Kerry beating George Bush in South Carolina 57-43 in 2004. The exit polling really needs to be taken as a whole for predictive analysis, and exit polls do not always do a great job of predicting specific votes.

7:16 - CNN's panel of Democrats are arguing whether the Clintons engage in race-baiting by pointing out Obama's support among black voters. They have five people on this panel, and as far as I can tell, not a Republican among them -- and Paul Begala defending the Clintons. Diversity in media!

7:09 - How cool is the First Mate? Tonight's our anniversary -- 14 years. We celebrated on Sunday because we thought we had a Marriage Encounter board meeting tonight. She doesn't mind me spending the evening covering the primaries. That's why she's the best, or at least one of the many reasons ....

7:05 - Polls close at 8 pm. I am posting in CST...

7:03 - Obama's already in Texas. Does he have that much confidence in the cheeseheads?

TrackBack

» MSNBC CALLS IT…. from Comments from Left Field
And the winner is…
Barack Obama. (All apologies, MSNBC doesn’t have the actual story up yet, just the breaking news banner).
Twenty minutes after the polls closed, Obama is declared the winner of Wisconsin, leading one to believe it will... [Read More]

» MSNBC CALLS IT…. from Comments from Left Field
And the winner is…
Barack Obama. (All apologies, MSNBC doesn’t have the actual story up yet, just the breaking news banner).
Twenty minutes after the polls closed, Obama is declared the winner of Wisconsin, leading one to believe it will... [Read More]

Comments
Please note that unverified Disqus users will have comments held in moderation. Please visit Disqus to register and verify your account. Comments from verified users will appear immediately.

Wisconsin Primary Live Blog

Will Hillary Clinton surprise everyone and win in Wisconsin? Can Barack Obama beat back Hillary's late challenge? Since my evening meeting got canceled, I'll be live blogging the Wisconsin poll results. Of course we're also looking at Washington and Hawaii, but Washington's Democratic delegates have already gone to Obama. There won't be much drama in the Republican races in Wisconsin and Washington, but we'll keep an eye on them as well.
Updates will come in reverse chronological order, as normal (CST) ...
9:37 - Calling it a night. Looks like a solid win for Obama, one that will help him in two weeks in Texas and Ohio. Hillary can just about hit the panic button now. If she can't win both Texas and Ohio on March 4th, the Democratic Party will start calling for her withdrawal to avoid the convention meltdown. I'll have more tomorrow.
9:22 - The splits look to be holding up. With 40% of the precincts reporting, Obama is winning by 13 points, while McCain is up 18.
9:19 - "We're going to have to parent better, turn off the TV, put away the video games"? Well, I can't argue with that, but it isn't the role of a President or the government to dictate that.
9:14 - Is he ad-libbing? He looked lost for a moment, as if he forgot what he wanted to say -- on the point that inspiration isn't everything.
9:09 - He just got done talking about how he's going to subsidize health care, then he talked about how bad the VA is. Well, that's government-subsidized health care -- that's the model.
9:05 - CNN is giving free coverage to the whole stump speech. Hillary could have a real complaint here, as could John McCain. Are they going to give Obama a full hour here? We're already halfway there.
9:04 - Free college education for people who do community service? I'd like to see the expenses for that and how he intends to pay for it, since it's cost on both ends.
8:55 - His faith in the American people has been vindicated -- because they're voting for him? It really is all about him, isn't it?
8:50 - Why did Obama run this cycle instead of waiting until he had more experience? "I'm running because of what Dr. King called the fierce urgency of now... Our planet is in peril." But why does that make him the best candidate to address the Fierce Urgency of Now? He never quite gets around to explain that.
8:48 - Michael Stickings, one of the best of the progressive bloggers, is also live-blogging.
8:46 - Hope, change, yada yada yada. Even some of Obama's crowd looked bored when CNN panned the camera around the room.
8:39 - Obama leads by eleven with 8% reporting, 55-44. McCain is still up by 20. Paul still has 4%.
8:36 - Big-time diss: Obama's about to step all over Hillary Clinton's speech. Heh.
8:32 - Hillary is also hammering on the theme of action instead of words. McCain will appreciate the help!
8:31 - Ron Paul got his 4%. No matter how many or few candidates are in the race, Paul gets his 4%. It's the definition of "fringe".
8:29 - Obama up 13 points with 3% reporting, 56-43; McCain up by 20, 56-36.
8:22 - CNN projects Obama as the Wisconsin winner. The question will be in how big the split will be in delegates.
8:19 - "I will work every day to ensure that America is not deceived by an eloquent but empty call for change."
8:18 - Barack Obama will win big in Wisconsin, it seems. He won men by 61%-35% and women by 51%-49%.
8:16 - John McCain's giving a good speech. He talks about his experience and how he knows how things work, and that he knows who he is. "I haven't lived a day when I haven't been proud, proud, of my country."
8:02 - CNN's exit polling is showing a big win in Wisconsin ...
8:00 - Polls closing; CNN calls Wisconsin for McCain, which means it must be a large margin involved. They think Obama may be leading in Wisconsin based on the exit polling.
7:47 - CNN's showing the big problem facing the Democrats. Even if one candidate runs the table from here on out on a 55-45 basis, neither can pull significantly ahead of the other.
7:37 - Here are some interesting numbers CNN's releasing from their exit polls. Voters under 30: Obama wins, 73-27. Over 60? Clinton wins 60-39. Huckabee and McCain both win 45% among conservatives, which indicates McCain should win this in a walk.
7:25 - CNN wants to make a big deal about the Republican race, but let's keep this in mind -- John McCain only needs to get 35% of the vote from here out to win the nomination before the convention. It's over.
7:23 - Oh, goody. Bill O'Reilly is covering the gripping Paul McCartney divorce case. Back to CNN!
7:20 - Jim Geraghty hears that the first two waves of exit polling show Obama winning Wisconsin 60-40. A couple of things to keep in mind: the first two waves of exit polling showed John Kerry beating George Bush in South Carolina 57-43 in 2004. The exit polling really needs to be taken as a whole for predictive analysis, and exit polls do not always do a great job of predicting specific votes.
7:16 - CNN's panel of Democrats are arguing whether the Clintons engage in race-baiting by pointing out Obama's support among black voters. They have five people on this panel, and as far as I can tell, not a Republican among them -- and Paul Begala defending the Clintons. Diversity in media!
7:09 - How cool is the First Mate? Tonight's our anniversary -- 14 years. We celebrated on Sunday because we thought we had a Marriage Encounter board meeting tonight. She doesn't mind me spending the evening covering the primaries. That's why she's the best, or at least one of the many reasons ....
7:05 - Polls close at 8 pm. I am posting in CST...
7:03 - Obama's already in Texas. Does he have that much confidence in the cheeseheads?

About

Ed Morrissey has blogged at Captain's Quarters since 2003, and has a daily radio show at BlogTalkRadio, where he serves as Political Director. Called "Captain Ed" by his readers, Ed is a father and grandfather living in the Twin Cities area of Minnesota, a native Californian who moved to the North Star State because of the weather.

My Other Blog

The Crows Nest

Another Great Mention Of BTR

I can't help it -- I love it when we get attention from the press. Reuters and CNet give us a nice plug in an article also linked at Huffington Post. It also mentions me, although it misses the name of my radio show, Heading Right Radio. Give it a read!

Jon Swift Made A List

The satirical blogger, Jon Swift, has his list of the best posts for 2007 -- as selected by the bloggers themselves. Be sure to check out the extensive list, including one from Captain's Quarters!

Who Is Raul Baduel?

Fausta takes a look at the "most interesting man in Venezuela", a former Chavez ally turned opponent over Hugo's attempted coup by referendum. If you haven't heard of Raul Baduel before, you should acquaint yourself with him now.

No Libel In The Blogosphere?

Picking up on a paper written by Glenn "Instapundit" Reynolds, Shaun Mullen talks about libel in the blogosphere, and why almost no legal action has ever been attempted against bloggers. Shaun has personal experience in this regard, and he has an excellent take on Glenn's piece. My first thought -- how many lawyers would take a case for the kind of money one would expect to get from a blogger?

The Tyrant Is Not Amused

So says Michael Stickings of The Reaction, one of the few liberal bloggers to see the threat from Hugo Chavez to liberty and regional security. His referendum on dictatorship has proven rather unpopular, threatening an embarrassing loss at the polls for the man who declares his commitment to socialism in the most dire terms possible. Read all of Michael's excellent update on the December 2nd poll.

Watcher's Council Nominations

It feels like years since I've linked to the Watcher of Weasels nominations for the best blog posts of the week on national security -- and it probably has been years, now that I think about it. Check it out this week, as the Council has been kind enough to nominate one of my posts.

The Old Woman

Pat Buchanan has a new book out, Day of Reckoning, which I have not yet had a chance to review. According to Rick Moran, I needn't bother. Buchanan informs his readers that America has passed into twilight. Moran refers to Buchanan as an "old woman". Don't miss this post.

Norman Podhoretz Responds

Accused of using a manufactured quote by Andrew Sullivan, Norman Podhoretz responds rather forcefully at Commentary's blog, Contentions. Podhoretz notes that Sullivan and The Economist both seem to miss the fact that the Iranians often edit Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's speeches for their own political benefit. Amir Taheri, who published the quote on which Podhoretz relied, produces the source material for the remarks by Khomeini eschewing Iranian nationalism for Islamist triumphalism. Will Sullivan apologize?

Fred Thompson On The War

Pajamas Media has a great interview with Fred Thompson as the first of its conversations with Republican candidates on the war. Thompson has one of his best web appearances in this entry -- sharp, engaged, articulate, and resolute. He talks about the fallacy of believing a nation at war can have both guns and butter, and what it takes to win a war. Don't miss it!

New Pajamas Media Podcast On BlogWorld Expo!

Don't miss Pajamas Media's new XM show, PJM Political, now available for podcast and download at PJM's site. I'm one of the featured segments, as well as Glenn Reynolds, Hugh Hewitt, James Lileks, Ed Driscoll, and more. Be sure to check it out!

Captain's Quarters Makes The Finals -- Twice!

I've been honored to be named a finalist in two different categories of the 2007 Weblog Awards -- Best Blog and Best Conservative Blog! Be sure to cast your votes in all catgories, and to use the opportunity to discover some new and worthy voices ....

UPDATE: We finished in third place for Best Conservative Blog and fourth in the overall Best Blog competition. Thanks to everyone who voted for Captain's Quarters, and I hope you enjoyed a new blog or two during the effort!

Help Project Valour-IT Make Us All Winners!

The Navy team at Soldier's Angels can use your help to make everyone a winner! Donate to the Project Valour-IT fundraiser for the Navy team and help us give our wounded warriors an opportunity to shine.

Crow's Nest Mostly Unmanned

Yes, I know the Crow's Nest has mostly been moribund since the site's relaunch. I do plan on using it more often in the future, I promise. I'll be spending a little more time on these posts as a way to link out to the blogosphere. Keep an eye on this space.

Also, please note that I've put the Amazon search bar on the main page, in the right sidebar. If you want to do some shopping at Amazon -- and who doesn't? -- be sure to shop through Captain's Quarters. Amazon does pay a small percentage of the sale to me, and it helps pay for a few sundries related to the blog. Much appreciated!

OpenCongress Web Widget

Ever wanted to announce your support or opposition to Congressional legislation? OpenCongress now has a web widget that allows bloggers to do exactly that. Take a look at this, and check out how easily you can build your own.

Maybe They're Flotation Devices?

The Australian Navy foots the bill for breast augmentations. The Labour Party would like to know why, and probably so would most of the voters in Australia.

Archives

Subscription

Search

Blogroll

Captain's Quarters features an authoritative blogroll, listing many websites that feature the top political thinking on the Internet. In order to make the list easier to navigate, it has been divided into a number of sections.