Europe: the Break-Up is About to Begin

The EU’s
days of “kick the can down the road” are rapidly coming to an end.

While most
commentators talk about the EU and its bailout fund as though these are
independent entities, the reality is that the EU bailout story was always about
whether Germany could foot the bill for the more bankrupt EU members.

For 18
months, German politicians were able to walk the line of supporting the EU
without pissing off the German populace too much. However, starting in the last
few months this balancing act has come to an end. Angela Merkel’s party has
been getting destroyed in the elections.

We’re now starting
to see German officials pulling back from the notion of more bailouts for
Greece. When it comes to political suicide vs. ideology, politicians look out
for themselves. And German politicians are realizing that with nearly 60% of
their country wanting out of the Euro, continuing to throw money at the EU’s
less solvent members means a guaranteed exit from public office.

In other
words, the EU, in its current form, is at the beginning of the end. Consider
the implications of Germany saying “no” to more bailouts.

A “no” from
Germany means the largest, most solvent country in the EU is no longer willing
to back up less solvent members. This in turns means the beginning of the end
for the “bailouts will fix everything” mantra that has dominated the world
since 2007-2008. It also means that any future EU member that comes looking for
handouts is no longer guaranteed assistance.

In other
words, the great EU experiment will be coming to an end.

Whether the EU will break into separate
alliances or if they’ll simply do away with the whole thing altogether remains
to be seen. But the cracks that have been forming in Spain, Portugal, Italy,
Ireland and Greece will eventually manifest into a full break in the EU in some
form.

And stocks
are completely unaware of this. As I’ve noted hundreds of times before, stocks
are the last to “get it.”

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