Well, I have never set foot in the place (AFAIK). But Labour do have a somewhat decent (for that part of the world) vote in the Rutland and Melton parliamentary constituency too. Or perhaps Melton is more Labour-friendly?

Well, I have never set foot in the place (AFAIK). But Labour do have a somewhat decent (for that part of the world) vote in the Rutland and Melton parliamentary constituency too. Or perhaps Melton is more Labour-friendly?

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval.

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There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval.

He wrote a write-up, on another website.

That does not count.

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There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval.

The result is hereby legitimised. Sorry for any delay.

----

Again just one by-election this week, and we're off to rural Staffordshire.

MADELEY, Newcastle under Lyme, Staffordshire; caused by the death of Labour councillor Bill Sinnott.

Madeley ward is a place which many people pass through but few stop at. It can be found 5 miles west of Newcastle-under-Lyme town centre on the A525 Newcastle-Whitchurch road; the main village of Madeley lies on the West Coast Main Line, although there has not been a station here for many years, while to the east of the village the M6 motorway makes a 120-degree curve from west to north-east as it bypasses the Potteries conurbation. The ward also includes the villages of Little Madeley and Madeley Heath either side of the motorway. Famous residents in the ward, according to Wikipedia, are Gordon Banks and Lemmy from Motörhead.

Although the ward looks fairly prosperous according to the deprivation indices, it has a coal-mining history, with collieries once upon a time at Madeley and Leycett; nearby was Silverdale Colliery which remained open until 1998. It's probably this, rather than Keele University being in the next ward, which accounts for the fact that the ward was fairly safe Labour when the current ward boundaries came in in 2002.

The Labour majority dwindled during the later Blair years, and in 2006 Labour won by 29 votes over the Conservatives with the Lib Dems 46 votes further behind. The Tories gained the ward from Bill Sinnott in 2007 by a margin of 92 over both the Lib Dems and Labour, who tied for second place. Strangely, the Tories did not follow up with a gain of the other seat on general election day in 2010; even though this ward is part of the safe Conservative parliamentary seat of Stone, the Lib Dems inexplicably made the gain from Labour by 131 votes over the Conservatives, Labour finishing a poor third. Last year Bill Sinnott gained his seat back from the Conservatives with a majority of 38, the Lib Dems being back in third place.

These wild swings - in the last three elections the ward has voted for all three main parties - make the by-election rather tricky to call. Much will depend on the campaign, in which all three main parties have selected local candidates. Defending the seat for the Labour is John Smart, about whom I have no information, while the other two main candidates both have some recent entertainment experience; the Lib Dem candidate, guest-house owner Simon White, appeared last year on the Channel 4 show "Four in a Bed", in which guest-house owners take turns to stay with each other; while the Conservatives' standard-bearer, computer engineer Howard Goodall, is a member of the Stoke Repertory Players, whose production last week was 'Fur Coat and No Knickers'. Insert your own joke here. Completing the ballot paper is Elaine Blake of UKIP; UKIP have a very active and successful branch in Newcastle-under-Lyme but in this ward have always been also-rans.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval

It's the kind of place that gets called 'popular', at least going from what I've heard other people say. I think - but might be wrong - that there's been a fair bit of development there over the past thirty odd years.

You cannot do that postfact. I do not recognize the existence of this so-called "by-election".

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There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval

It's taken me over a year to do it, but I've finally written a by-election preview which is too big for one post to hold. So, part I of the eight by-elections on Thursday:

KESGRAVE AND RUSHMERE ST ANDREW, Suffolk County Council, and KESGRAVE EAST, Suffolk Coastal DC; both caused by the death of Conservative councillor John Klaschka, a former engineer and IT worker, at the age of 71.

Kesgrave is a middle-class satellite town of Ipswich, located four miles east of Ipswich on the A1214 Ipswich-Woodbridge road. It may seem obscure, and even the town's Wikipedia entry doesn't have much to say, but it is by population the second largest town in Suffolk Coastal district after Felixstowe, and bigger than Woodbridge where the district council is based.

Kesgrave's politics are even less interesting than the town - at every election since 2005 the town has returned a full slate of Conservative district and county councillors. John Klaschka had served on the district council since 2003 and on the county council since 2005. Kesgrave East is the less monothically Tory end of town, with the Conservatives running unopposed in 2003 but polling 44% in both 2007 and 2011 against evenly-split opposition. The two-member county division of Kesgrave and Rushmere St Andrew, which also includes the Kesgrave West and Rushmere St Andrew wards, is safe Conservative with the Liberal Democrats in a rather distant second place.

Both by-elections are being contested by just the three main parties. Defending for the Conservatives are Kesgrave town councillor Geoff Lynch for the district seat, and Christopher Hudson (district councillor for Framlingham ward) for the county seat; the Lib Dems have selected Kesgrave town coucillor Derrick Fairbrother, who fought the district ward last year, for both by-elections; while Labour are standing last year's runner-up David Isaacs in the district by-election and Kevin Archer in the county by-election.

LEEK NORTH, Staffordshire Moorlands DC, and LEEK SOUTH, Staffordshire County Council; both caused by the death of UKIP councillor Steve Povey, from lung cancer at the age of 53. As well as being a community campaigner, Povey ran an oatcake business in Biddulph and had served as Mayor of Leek.

Staffordshire specialises in two types of town. Down in the Trent Valley can be found market towns, some quite large, such as Stafford itself, Lichfield and Tamworth. At the top of the Trent Valley is the Potteries conurbation, an industrial area built on coal-mining and pottery manufacture. Leek, however, doesn't quite fall into either category: high up in the Peak District twelve miles north-east of Stoke-on-Trent, it is an ancient agricultural centre with a weekly cattle market, but it is also the southernmost of the Pennine textile towns, and from the Industrial Revolution onwards particularly specialised in silk-working. The cattle market is still going strong, but the textile industry declined many years ago as it did in the rest of the Pennines, and the major employer now is the ex-building society Britannia, which is based in the town. Judging from local newspaper reports, a major political issue in the town at the moment is changes to the road network in the town consequent upon the building of a new Sainsbury's store.

The district ward of Leek North is basically everything in the town north of the A523 and A53 plus the hamlet of Abbey Green, while the Leek South county division consists of the rest of the town plus the hamlets of Birchall, Leekbrook and Cheddleton Heath on the A520 road to the south.

Leek's politics is a bit different to the rest of the county as well. The town lies at the centre of the Staffordshire Moorlands district, whose other major towns are Biddulph and Cheadle, and is also the main town in the Staffordshire Moorlands constituency, whose MP tends to flip between Conservative and Labour depending on whether the seat includes the Labour town of Kidsgrove or not; in the 2010 boundary changes Kidsgrove was removed from this seat and the Labour MP Charlotte Atkins (who was first elected in the 1997 landslde when Kidsgrove was moved into this seat) lost to the Conservatives. The district council has a strong independent streak, electing 20 independents in 2003 to 18 Conservatives, 11 Liberal Democrats (mostly from Biddulph) and 7 Labour. 12 of the Independents were elected under the banner of "Ratepayers (Staffordshire Moorlands)", six of those in Leek town, including Steve Povey who took one of the three seats in Leek North ward, the other two going to Labour. At the same election Leek East returned a full slate of Ratepayers, Leek West a full slate of Lib Dems and Leek South split, electing two Ratepayers and one Conservative.

The Staffordshire county elections came around in 2005. By this time Steve Povey had joined UKIP and stood under his new colours in the safe Tory division of Leek Rural, which despite the name includes his ward of Leek North. He came fourth out of the four candidates with a creditable vote share of 13.2%, just 16 votes behind the Lib Dems. The Leek South county division, which consists of the town's other three wards, elected a Conservative on a low share of the vote (33.0%, to 25.6% for Labour, 20.2% for the Lib Dems and 16.5% for the Ratepayers). At the general election on the same day Povey was the UKIP candidate in Staffordshire Moorlands, saving his deposit with 7.9%.

Fast forward to 2007 and the Ratepayer vote collapsed, the Conservatives gaining 11 seats and control of the district council. Only one Ratepayer councillor was re-elected, Keith Harrison in Leek South. Steve Povey topped the poll in Leek North for UKIP. The Conservatives gained Leek East from the Ratepayers, one of the Ratepayer seats in Leek South and two of the Lib Dem seats in Leek West.

Then in the 2009 Staffordshire county elections came a real shock. The Labour vote in Staffordshire epically collapsed, and Labour went from majority control of the council to being the fourth largest group with just 3 seats, behind the Tories (who won 49 of the 62 seats), the Lib Dems and UKIP. Despite the blue landslide, the Conservatives lost two seats in Staffordshire Moodlands district; one of them was Leek South, which elected Steve Povey for UKIP with a majority of 411 over the Conservatives.

As stated, in the 2010 general election Labour lost the Staffordshire Moorlands seat to the Conservatives on a 5.7% swing. Steve Povey was again the UKIP candidate and again saved his deposit, increasing his share of the vote to 8.2%.

The most recent electoral test in the town was the district council elections in 2011. In his final contest, Povey again topped the poll in Leek North for UKIP with Labour winning the other two seats. The Ratepayers had by now evolved into the Moorlands Democratic Alliance, apparently annoying their only Leek councillor Keith Harrison in the process; Harrison stood as an independent in Leek South and was re-elected. The Moorlands Democratic Alliance did have some limited success, gaining two seats in Leek East from the Conservatives which cost the Tories their overall majority, although they remain the largest group on the council.

As can be seen, Leek is a rather idiosyncratic town with lots of minor party support and personal votes, and they don't come much larger than the personal vote for Steve Povey who effectively was UKIP in the town. With Povey gone, it will be interesting to see where his vote goes to. Given that Labour hold the other two seats in Leek North district ward they will fancy their chances of making it 3 out of 3, and they have selected a very strong candidate: the former Staffordshire Moorlands MP Charlotte Atkins. Steve Povey's son Alex, who has taken over the family oatcake business, is hoping to succeed to his dad's old seat. The Tories are standing Bob Bestwick, who fought this ward last year, the Liberal Democrats have selected former Leek West district councillor Roy Gregg, and the Moorlands Democratic Alliance candidate is Brian Pointon, bandmaster for a local Scout and Guide band.

Alex Povey is also standing for his father's county council seat. Here he will face the toughest opposition from the Conservatives' Neal Podmore, who represents Leek South on the district council and lost his county council seat to Povey Sr in 2009. The Lib Dems, Labour and the Moorlands Democratic Alliance are also standing local district councillors: John Fisher (Leek West), Margaret Lovatt (Leek North) and Pamela Wood (Leek East) respectively. Bill Cawley, who was the Green candidate here at the last county council election, is standing this time as an independent.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval

TOWCESTER, Northamptonshire County Council, caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Rosemary Bromwich, who now lives in Cornwall; and TOWCESTER BROOK, South Northamptonshire DC, caused by the death of Conservative councillor Diana Dallyn at the age of 68.

The Roman town of Lactodurum, Towcester is located on Watling Street (A5) at its junction with the A43 Northampton-Oxford road, eight miles south-west of Northampton. Because of its location on Watling Street, Towcester became a stop on the stagecoach route from London to Holyhead, but lost this trade when the London to Birmingham railway opened, bypassing the town, in 1838. Today Towcester is probably best known for its racecourse, and in recent decades the area has become known for a different kind of racing, with the Silverstone motor racing circuit just a few miles away to the south-west.

The Towcester Brook district ward is the southern half of the town, while the Towcester county division is the entire town plus the tiny parish of Easton Neston to the east.

The Conservatives are under some pressure in the Towcester Brook district ward, where they lost two seats to the Lib Dems last year and are now defending their remaining seat. The Tories won three out of three in 2007 when the current ward boundaries were introduced; in 2003 the previous Towcester Brook ward (which then had only two seats) was a very even C/LD split. Hoping to hold the district seat for the Tories is John Gasking, who has apparently previously served two terms as a district councillor (I can find no evidence of this so presumably it was before 2003), while the Lib Dems have selected Lisa Samiotis, who is described as a young working mum. Completing the ballot paper in the district by-election is Peter Conquest of UKIP, who stood in this ward last year.

On paper the county by-election will probably not be as interesting as the Tories won the division very easily in 2005 and 2009. Both the Tories and Lib Dems have strong candidates; the Conservative candidate is district councillor (for Cosgrove and Grafton ward) and cabinet member Ian McCord, while the Lib Dems have gone for Chris Lofts, who is a district councillor in Towcester Brook ward and former Mayor of Towcester. The UKIP county candidate is Barry Mahoney, who fought South Northamptonshire at the last general election, while Northampton-based Mark Plowman is standing for the BNP.

You'll notice that I've not mentioned a Labour candidate. Labour did actually select Douglas Barry to fight both by-elections, but he failed to complete his nomination papers correctly and won't be on either ballot paper.

WINCHESTER SOUTHERN PARISHES, Hampshire County Council; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Frederick Allgood at the age of 78. A journalist for several newspapers all over the world (including the Sunday Express and the New York Times) who later became a PR man for IBM, Allgood had served on Winchester City Council for 27 years and was the 789th Mayor of Winchester; when he died he was vice-Chairman of the county council.

The name "Winchester Southern Parishes" is possibly a little misleading; while this county division is part of Winchester city council it's actually nowhere near Winchester itself. Located just north of Fareham and Portsmouth and just west of Havant, this is one of those long thin electoral areas containing lots of villages that have little to do with one another. The largest population centre is probably Wickham in the centre of the division, while the division stretches east to Denmead and west to Whiteley and Swanwick, home of National Air Traffic Services.

As the proximity to Portsmouth and Southampton might suggest, this is a well-off commuter area. "Well-off commuter area" is usually synonymous with "safe Conservative" and so it is here. Allgood had a safe seat and at his last re-election in 2009 had a 30-point lead over the Lib Dems. Winchester's thirds electoral cycle makes interpreting results in the four district wards covered by the division rather difficult, but Wickham would appear to be the strongest Lib Dem area and Denmead the strongest Conservative area.

The Conservatives have selected Patricia Stallard, who represents Denmead on the city council. Her main opposition will come from the Lib Dem candidate Vivian Achwal, who represents Whiteley on the city council. Labour are standing David Picton-Jones, who regularly stands as a paper candidate in an area where there is so little Labour support a derisory vote share would be a positive achievement (in 2008 Whiteley ward was was one of just ten wards in England and Wales where Labour polled less than 2%, and Wickham was one of the five wards where they polled less than 1.75%). Stephen Harris is standing for UKIP after being the parliamentary candidate for the local seat (Meon Valley) two years ago, while the ballot paper is completed by John Vivian for the Green Party.

One of the previews above mentioned a town that lost trade as a result of the coming of the railways (Towcester). Windermere town is the opposite, in that it was a town created by the coming of the railways; specifically, the Kendal and Windermere railway which opened in 1847 and made the Lake District easily accessible to tourists for the first time. In order to accomodate them the town of Windermere (and its twin town, the inland resort of Bowness-on-Windermere) boomed. Today, as well as the tourism, Windermere is also the home of the kitchenware chain Lakeland, whose flagship store can be found next to the railway station.

The Windermere Town ward itself runs south-east from the railway station as far as the hamlet of Heathwaite.

Politically, South Lakeland council has been comprehensively taken over by the Liberal Democrats with sometimes mind-boggling shares of the vote. To understand this you need to go back to the Lib Dem decapitation strategy at the 2005 general election, in which the local parliamentary seat (Westmorland and Lonsdale) was the only decapitation to actually succeed, Tim Farron narrowly defeating the Tories' education spokesman Tim Collins. Farron and the local Lib Dems did not rest there and five years later the seat became one of the safest Lib Dem constituencies in the land, thanks to an 11% swing from the Conservatives and a collapse in the Labour vote to just 2.2%.

Before then, South Lakeland got new ward boundaries in 2008 and so the whole council was up (the district has a strange electoral cycle combining thirds elections with predominantly single-member wards). In 2008 there were just eleven wards in the whole of England and Wales where the Lib Dems broke 80%, and eight of them were in South Lakeland (six of them were in Kendal, a town which just six years previously had returned 6 Labour councillors out of a possible 13). Windermere Town's 2008 Lib Dem score of 82.7% puts it at number 7 on the list.

With that share of the vote (although the Lib Dem share did reduce in 2011 when a Labour candidate stood) a Lib Dem loss would be a major upset. Hoping that won't happen is Jo Stephenson, who lost his seat last year in the neighbouring marginal ward of Windermere Applethwaite and Troutbeck. The Tories have selected Bermuda-born retired qualified chef Sandra Lilley, while Labour's candidate in 2011, retired headteacher Penny Henderson, is standing again. Completing the ballot paper is Robert Gibson, a tutor, standing for UKIP.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval

I'm not aware that the Greens ever had any seats in South Lakeland. It's not a district that would have lots of stereotypical Green voters in the way that neighbouring Lancaster does, and the local Lib Dems have the pavement style of politics sewn up.

In fact I'm struggling to think of any Green councillors in the whole of Cumbria.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval

I'm not aware that the Greens ever had any seats in South Lakeland. It's not a district that would have lots of stereotypical Green voters in the way that neighbouring Lancaster does, and the local Lib Dems have the pavement style of politics sewn up.

In fact I'm struggling to think of any Green councillors in the whole of Cumbria.

I'm not aware that the Greens ever had any seats in South Lakeland. It's not a district that would have lots of stereotypical Green voters in the way that neighbouring Lancaster does, and the local Lib Dems have the pavement style of politics sewn up.

In fact I'm struggling to think of any Green councillors in the whole of Cumbria.

they lost in 2007 I think, I might be wrong

There weren't any Green candidates in South Lakeland in 2003. Defectors perhaps?

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval

If I'm shown as having been active here recently it's either because I've been using the gallery, because I've been using the search engine looking up something from way back, or because I've been reading the most excellent UK by-elections thread again.

I know. I read the Holy Word. I didn't think personal votes were inheritable to such an extent; I would have guessed he'd get 10-15%.

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