Melbourne Storm

Guardian writers’ season prediction: 5th (NB: this is not necessarily Paul’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 3rd (lost in semi final)

Last year was only the second time in nine years that the Melbourne Storm failed to make the preliminary final (the first being 2010 when they were hobbled after the club’s salary cap rorting came to light). It’s hard to know exactly what to read into that fact. Was it just an inevitable dip that could be put down to accumulated fatigue or the law of averages? Or was it — as many rivals tired by the endless purple reign will hope — the first real inkling that the mighty Storm dynasty is finally on the wane?

Of course, as long as the Storm are served by the Big Three (grouped together like this for so long, Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater must feel a little like Bali drug mules, or political prisoners, or even Wiggles) they will be a team to fear. Even so, the trio are now all 30 and sooner or later they will be merely excellent, as opposed to brilliant.

If you accept that the Big Three will be their usual selves, this year Melbourne’s title push will come down to how well newcomers and unheralded lower-grade players fit into a Storm machine that is well served by the likes of Ryan Hoffman, Will Chambers, Jesse Bromwich, Kevin Proctor, Tohu Harris and the exciting Sisa Waqa.

Craig Bellamy has a gift for either uncovering hidden gems or bringing a new lustre to old ones, but he has his work cut out for him this year given the list of departees from AAMI Park in the off-season. Previously important bench players Jason Ryles and Brett Finch have retired from the NRL, while Maurice Blair has gone to the Gold Coast. The biggest change to the Storm’s first team, however, is at five-eighth now that Garreth Widdop is at the Dragons.

Englishman Widdop, who has worked the Storm’s left-side attack since 2010, has been an integral part of their success and a particularly good man to have around at Origin time. Whoever steps into his shoes — youngster Ben Hampton, ex-Bulldog Joel Romelo or the never-quite-convincing ex-Eel Ben Roberts — will inevitably take time to find their footing. With Widdop’s absence alone, Melbourne are weaker, on paper, than last season.

On the gains side, however, the Storm have picked up Manly’s George Rose, who will fill a gap (though not as big a gap as you might expect — apparently he’s dropped 8kg since leaving the peninsula), and there are great expectations attached to they young Queensland Cup fullback Cameron Munster. The Storm have also recruited, among others, Felise Kaufusi from the Cowboys and Travis Robinson from the Panthers.

Measured against the likes of the Roosters and Rabbitohs, and the Storm side of last year — which finished third on the ladder before bowing out of the semis in straight sets — the current version seems to come up a tad short. That said, when it comes to Melbourne you can always count on a few things. The Storm are well-coached, well-drilled, and always put in a decent shift. If they are going to be beaten they don’t tend to help.

Accordingly, a finals spot looks a good bet. How far they progress after that is the big question.

Newcastle Knights

Guardian writers’ season prediction: 6th (NB: this is not necessarily Nick’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 7th (lost in preliminary final)

The Newcastle Knights enter the 2014 season as perhaps the most mysterious, riddle-riddled team in the NRL.

All the pieces looked to have fallen into place early in the summer. The Knights had been hot and cold all through 2013, but made a magnificent run through September to reach the preliminary final after defeating both 2012 grand finalists away from the Hunter. The club had signed a much-needed young prop with lots of upside. Decorated international Kurt Gidley, Newcastle’s best player, would return from injury. The Supercoach, Wayne Bennett, was still pulling the strings.

Success had not come as quickly as Nathan Tinkler had declared but it did seem to be coming. The smell of rebirth was in the air.

On paper, the Knights seemed capable of travelling all the way to the title decider, a game Bennett is accustomed to reaching, having been there nine times in his 27-year premiership career.

They had three quality players at the key positions of fullback, five-eighth and hooker in Darius Boyd, Jarrod Mullen and Gidley. Their contingent of outside backs was as potent as any in the NRL. The forward pack was tough and strong and deep with a host of rep players led by Kade Snowden and Jeremy Smith.

And then came the offseason from hell, a rugby league fate often bestowed on those who seem to have made the right moves.

New recruit Russell Packer was sent to prison for two years for a vicious assault soon after arriving at the club. Prop Zane Tetevano was charged with assaulting his partner. Willie Mason added to the humiliation by failing a breath test and having a DUI charge slapped on him. Key playmaker Mullen suffered a serious hamstring injury at the Nines that will keep him out for at least three months and probably longer.

The makeup of the Newcastle team heading into round one is now unclear. A reshuffle is afoot. Boyd seems likely to be shifted to five-eighth. Promising centre Dane Gagai could be moved to fullback. Timana Tahu looks set to win an unlikely recall, though he will also start the season on the injury list after undergoing knee surgery. Gidley could play any of the key positions. A host of players are lining up for back-row slots.

The Knights are a mystery wrapped in a riddle, but they are talented and they are a team on the up. Bennett has overcome this type of adversity before and no team buys into the cult of their coach more than the Knights.

They have the belief and if they get a fair rub of the green and some luck with injuries, they will be running at the pointy end of the season. A top four berth is not beyond the boys from the Hunter.