The Nagin Effect

New Orleans' hugely unpopular, term-limited incumbent still factors into the mayor's race — as a reverse barometer

New Orleans voters may not know just yet what they want in their
next mayor, but they definitely know what they don't want:
another Ray Nagin. Polls and campaign strategies bear that out as
candidates try to distinguish themselves not only from one another but
also from the hugely unpopular, term-limited mayor.

Call it the Nagin Effect. After eight years in office,
Ray Nagin is a political pariah, the guy every candidate for mayor
wants desperately to be unlike.

This is not a new phenomenon.

When Nagin first ran for mayor in 2002, he proudly
touted his business credentials as the general manager of the local Cox
Cable franchise. His media handlers billed him as "the turnaround
artist" who made Cox profitable after years of underperformance.
Equally important, after eight years of Marc Morial, whose
administration was fraught with political patronage and insider deals,
voters wanted someone radically different from the familiar political
palette. Nagin, with his business background and "political outsider"
aura, came on like a breath of fresh air.

Now, eight years later, voters long for something
different. Again.

Looking back at past mayoral elections, the pattern is
clear. The affable Sidney Barthelemy was the candidate most unlike the
fiery two-term mayor Dutch Morial in 1986, and the energetic Marc
Morial was the most unlike the easygoing Barthelemy in 1994.

And so it goes. Every eight years, after a mayor has put
his stamp on City Hall and city politics and cannot run again, voters
yearn for someone different — often times as different as
possible.

A poll last spring of more than 1,000 New Orleans showed
Nagin with an overall disapproval rating of more than 2 to 1. By a
margin of more than 4 to 1, voters said they wanted the city to move in
a "significantly different direction" from where Nagin has taken
it.

Above all, the poll by Democracy Corps, which was
overseen by Democratic consultant James Carville as part of his Tulane
professorship, showed that 65 percent of the voters surveyed wanted the
next mayor to be "an experienced political leader who knows the City
Council and can work with them," compared to only 25 percent who
preferred "a political outsider who can challenge the city's political
culture."

While the survey is more than six months old, voters'
assessment of Nagin — and the effect he has on the mayor's race
— has not changed.

Qualifying for mayor, City Council and other local
offices is this Wednesday through Friday (Dec. 9-11). The primary is
Feb. 6 — a mere eight weeks away, with several holidays, the
onset of Carnival season and the NFL playoffs providing major
distractions. The campaign's short timeline puts added pressure on
candidates to hone their messages.

All of which explains a lot about how certain candidates
present themselves to voters these days. Consider how the leading
candidates with business experience address The Nagin Effect:

• "I'm a businesswoman who knows you can't run a
city like a business," says insurance executive and education reformer
Leslie Jacobs at one of her early meet-and-greets.

• Businessman Troy Henry's first radio ad touts his
private-sector accomplishments and promises that he'll be the mayor
"who did what he said he was gonna do" — a clear reference to
Nagin's reputation for not following through on his big promises.

• "I reject the idea that Ray Nagin was a
businessman," says Rob Couhig, a Republican attorney and businessman
who ran against Nagin in 2006 and then endorsed him in the runoff.
Couhig says letting Nagin poison the well for business-oriented
candidates is "like saying you don't want (veteran state Senator) Ed
Murray because of (corrupt former Congressman) Bill Jefferson."

• "I don't see this in absolutes," says John
Georges, the Republican-turned-Independent-turned-Democrat businessman
who ran for governor as an Independent in 2007. "I think voters want
elements of business and elements of politics in the next mayor. I have
both."

The non-business candidates have weighed in as well, but
to varying degrees and in varying ways.

As an attorney and 18-year legislator, Murray arguably
has no business credentials at all. His latest radio ad uses that to
draw a sharp distinction between himself and Nagin — and his
opponents. "Unfortunately, our experiment with a businessperson as
mayor has been a total failure — a failure we cannot afford to
repeat," Murray says in the ad. "The goal of business is to make money.
The goal of government is to serve its people. Businesspeople are about
making money. I'm about getting things done for our people. ... That's
the difference between me and the other major candidates."