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NFL Picks

NFL Picks: Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions

This Detroit Lions are this year’s top
candidates for a bounce-back season, and the NFL betting lines are marching steadily toward
them for Sunday’s season opener against the Minnesota Vikings.

The Motor City has seen better times. So
have the Detroit Lions. Despite making the playoffs in 2011, and despite all
the talent on their roster, the Lions punted the 2012 NFL regular season at
4-12 SU and 6-10 ATS. The Oxford English Dictionary confirms this as
“wallet-shredding.”

That makes the Lions one of the hottest commodities
on the NFL odds market. As they say on the car lot, there’s never been a
better time to buy. Except that’s not quite the case anymore as Detroit gets
ready to introduce its 2013 model this Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX) at Ford Field
against the Minnesota Vikings. The Lions were 3-point home favorites when the
first Week 1 NFL odds were posted way back in May; that line moved to –3.5 at
the start of the preseason and kept on climbing, as high as 5.5 points by the
time we went to press.

Do
the Math

There’s still a case to be made for picking
the Lions this week. If you’ve done your football betting homework over the
summer, you’ll already be aware that Detroit wasn’t quite as bad last year as
that 4-12 record would suggest. The Lions played well enough in 2012 to post
7.4 Estimated Wins (per Football Outsiders) and 6.4 Pythagorean Wins. That was
the widest margin for any team between expected stat nerd performance and
actual football performance.

Fortunately for us, the betting public
isn’t all too concerned about Pythagorean anything. Looking at the Super Bowl
futures market at Intertops, the Lions opened on Feb. 7 at 50-1, and stayed
that way until August, when they edged up to 40-1. That’s still a bargain price
for a team with this much upside.

[gameodds]16/226877/?r3=19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Doctor
Detroit

It seems that playing football can cause
you bodily harm. According to The Dallas
Morning News, Detroit’s starting unit lost 69 man-games to injury last
year. Only three teams suffered worse in 2012; the healthiest team, by the way,
was the San Francisco 49ers at eight man-games lost. Just a little something to
keep in mind for later.

These weren’t your garden-variety
man-games, either. RB Jahvid Best (4.6 yards per carry in 2011) was lost for
the season due to post-concussion issues and may never play again. Joining Best
on injured reserve, in order of appearance: punter Ben Graham, WR Nate
Burleson, intriguing rookie CB Bill Bentley, WR Titus
Young and WR Ryan Broyles. And that was just before Week 14. What happened
after that looks like a scene from – well, from whatever medical drama is
popular these days. Lots of people got hurt. Surgery was performed.

He
Was the Nazz

Thanks to the NFL’s special brand of
communism, the Lions were rewarded with the No. 5 overall pick in the 2013 NFL
Draft, landing 6-foot-5, 270-pound DE Ezekiel “Ziggy” Ansah from the BYU
Cougars. However, Ansah may have suffered a head injury during Saturday’s
practice, and his status for Week 1 is being kept under wraps. Otherwise,
Detroit is healthy to start the new season.

Things look a little less rosy for Detroit’s
opponents this Sunday. The Vikings may be without six-time Pro Bowl DT Kevin
Williams, who hyperextended his right knee after a low block by San Francisco’s
Joe Looney during Week 3 of the preseason. That’s bad news for a team that was
already on the list of potential busts for 2013. Minnesota went 10-6 last year
(8-7-1 ATS) and made the playoffs despite posting just 8.8 Estimated Wins and
8.8 Pythagorean Wins.

Did somebody say… playoffs?! Yes, as luck
would have it, Sunday’s game is the feature attraction of the Week
1 NFL betting trends, with the non-playoff Lions hosting the playoff
Vikings. The sharps have been pounding the Lions in this one, with the early
consensus reports showing 65 percent support for Detroit at –3 and 55 percent
support at –4.5. But place your NFL picks early, because these prices won’t last forever.