Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Justin Masterson and his agent, Randy Rowley, have made a three- to four-year proposal to the Indians believed to be in the $40-60 million range.Hoynes says they're waiting to hear back from the Indians, but if the club is serious at all about keeping Masterson, it's hard to imagine them not jumping at that offer. Rowley told CBS Sports' Jon Heyman that the righty "is motivated to stay in Cleveland by his admiration for manager Terry Francona, his strong feelings about his teammates and family situation." Both sides have set an Opening Day deadline for extension talks.

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This is the kind of deal I expected AFTER negotiations take place. If this is Masterson and Rowley's opening offer (IF) then I am 99% certain we see Masterson heading our rotation for the next 3-4 years

"There is but one thing of real value: to cultivate truth and justice and to live without anger in the midst of lying and unjust men"

The effect of the qualifying offer. Masterson doesn't want to run the risk of being next year's Erv Santana. On a secondary level, the family stuff plays in. Parents live in Beavercreek down by Dayton. And he does seem to be genuinely happy with Francona and the team. But I think the bigger concern in his mind is the QO. There's a very realistic chance that 3/42 or 4/56 or whatever he gets from the Indians, if they sign him, is better than he'd get on the open market. More than Ubaldo got.

Indians have a pretty big chance here. They can generate some good PR keeping a guy that's essentially a homegrown talent through a few free agency years. On the field, they lock up a decent #2, strong #3 starter who has been pretty durable and will always be able to get by with his ground ball stuff.

Wouldn't surprise me if this gets done very soon so Masterson can focus on baseball and the Indians can ride a small bump in good feelings to some additional ticket sales.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

I agree. I was encouraged a couple days ago by his quote about "expecting" to stay with Cleveland for a few more years. Something about the wording and attitude suggested to me a bit more than the usual lip service we typically hear in situations of impending free agency, i.e., the old "we'll play it out and see what happens."

Also, aren't the Indians typically pretty tight-lipped about moves and negotiations? The fact that Masterson's camp is publicly floating these numbers and his wishes without being shot down or silenced could indicate that talks are advanced enough they expect something to happen. But that's just me speculating.

Re-signing him would be a huge move, both on and off the field. When was the last time an impending free agent took an extension to stick around? (Were Hafner and Westbrook on the last years of their deals? Can't remember.) Either way, a potential top free agent deciding that the grass isn't necessarily greener on the other side would be such a rare and welcome sight.

I would love this move but to play Devil's Advocate: we have a guy coming off a good season albeit one not unmarred by injury and he's approaching us about signing for less value than he's worth. Chris better due his diligence and make sure Justin wants that contract for the right reasons.

I believe Justin is being honest, simply because he seems like that kind of dude, but this isn't as cut and dry as we think.

FTR - I would really welcome this signing and I think the fan base would as well. I think the smart FO move is to wait a couple of weeks and make sure the arm is sound. So we're likely gonna have to wait a while.

skatingtripods wrote:And he does seem to be genuinely happy with Francona and the team.

Does this increase Tito's wWAR?

No, though I appreciate the snark.

I can't let myself get too serious about this report. Is it possible an athlete could give a home town discount (sort of)? Maybe even sway Kip's decision to sign long term?

This isn't a hometown discount. What sucks is that it's being spun that way, which is a pretty damn good and shrewd move by Randy Rowley to put more pressure on Antonetti. It's completely a byproduct of the qualifying offer. Erv Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez both entered the offseason looking for five-year deals worth a ton of money. Santana's unsigned on March 6 and Ubaldo settled for 4/50 from Baltimore. Matt Garza, who has made 42 starts over the last two seasons, got the same exact money from Milwaukee that Jimenez got.

Teams aren't willing to give up the draft pool money to sign these free agent pitchers. It's not even so much the pick, it's the money. Pitchers are getting screwed over in FA. Masterson has a great shot at getting more money, or at least market money, from the Indians right now than he does going to free agency with a qualifying offer rejection hanging around his neck.

It's being spun as a hometown discount, but it's not. It's Rowley and Masterson realizing what the FA SP market was like this season and knowing that it's not going to change next season either. Unless the qualifying offer amount goes up substantially, teams will keep handcuffing their would-be free agents by making them accept to QO or risk going on the market with compensation attached.

It's put the Indians into a helpless position. They either have to give in (which I don't think they mind too much) or try to spin to the fan base why it was a good idea to let the team's current ace walk. It's a great leverage play by Rowley. Very sharp for a guy who doesn't have a lot of clients or experience in this sort of negotiation.

Last edited by skatingtripods on Thu Mar 06, 2014 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

skatingtripods wrote:And he does seem to be genuinely happy with Francona and the team.

Does this increase Tito's wWAR?

No, though I appreciate the snark.

I can't let myself get too serious about this report. Is it possible an athlete could give a home town discount (sort of)? Maybe even sway Kip's decision to sign long term?

This isn't a hometown discount. What sucks is that it's being spun that way, which is a pretty damn good and shrewd move by Randy Rowley to put more pressure on Antonetti. It's completely a byproduct of the qualifying offer. Erv Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez both entered the offseason looking for five-year deals worth a ton of money. Santana's unsigned on March 6 and Ubaldo settled for 4/50 from Baltimore. Matt Garza, who has made 42 starts over the last two seasons, got the same exact money from Milwaukee that Jimenez got.

Teams aren't willing to give up the draft pool money to sign these free agent pitchers. It's not even so much the pick, it's the money. Pitchers are getting screwed over in FA. Masterson has a great shot at getting more money, or at least market money, from the Indians right now than he does going to free agency with a qualifying offer rejection hanging around his neck.

It's being spun as a hometown discount, but it's not. It's Rowley and Masterson realizing what the FA SP market was like this season and knowing that it's not going to change next season either. Unless the qualifying offer amount goes up substantially, teams will keep handcuffing their would-be free agents by making them accept to QO or risk going on the market with compensation attached.

It's put the Indians into a helpless position. They either have to give in (which I don't think they mind too much) or try to spin to the fan base why it wasn't a good idea to let the team's current ace walk. It's a great leverage play by Rowley. Very sharp for a guy who doesn't have a lot of clients or experience in this sort of negotiation.

If this is the case then the QO is doing it's job by helping small market teams keep their marquee players.

skatingtripods wrote:And he does seem to be genuinely happy with Francona and the team.

Does this increase Tito's wWAR?

No, though I appreciate the snark.

I can't let myself get too serious about this report. Is it possible an athlete could give a home town discount (sort of)? Maybe even sway Kip's decision to sign long term?

This isn't a hometown discount. What sucks is that it's being spun that way, which is a pretty damn good and shrewd move by Randy Rowley to put more pressure on Antonetti. It's completely a byproduct of the qualifying offer. Erv Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez both entered the offseason looking for five-year deals worth a ton of money. Santana's unsigned on March 6 and Ubaldo settled for 4/50 from Baltimore. Matt Garza, who has made 42 starts over the last two seasons, got the same exact money from Milwaukee that Jimenez got.

Teams aren't willing to give up the draft pool money to sign these free agent pitchers. It's not even so much the pick, it's the money. Pitchers are getting screwed over in FA. Masterson has a great shot at getting more money, or at least market money, from the Indians right now than he does going to free agency with a qualifying offer rejection hanging around his neck.

It's being spun as a hometown discount, but it's not. It's Rowley and Masterson realizing what the FA SP market was like this season and knowing that it's not going to change next season either. Unless the qualifying offer amount goes up substantially, teams will keep handcuffing their would-be free agents by making them accept to QO or risk going on the market with compensation attached.

It's put the Indians into a helpless position. They either have to give in (which I don't think they mind too much) or try to spin to the fan base why it wasn't a good idea to let the team's current ace walk. It's a great leverage play by Rowley. Very sharp for a guy who doesn't have a lot of clients or experience in this sort of negotiation.

If this is the case then the QO is doing it's job by helping small market teams keep their marquee players.

1Perry wrote:Someone is going to be more than willing to give up a pick to sign Masterson.

You should read Tripod's post again. Especially the part about it being about the money, not the pick. If teams sign a FA, they not only lose the pick, they lost the amount of money they were allotted to spend on that pick. Makes it much harder to go overslot for guys you really covet.

1Perry wrote:Someone is going to be more than willing to give up a pick to sign Masterson.

You should read Tripod's post again. Especially the part about it being about the money, not the pick. If teams sign a FA, they not only lose the pick, they lost the amount of money they were allotted to spend on that pick. Makes it much harder to go overslot for guys you really covet.

At least that's how I understand it.

And you are giving a rival all that extra money. Two way street and neither way is good.

skatingtripods wrote:Teams aren't willing to give up the draft pool money to sign these free agent pitchers. It's not even so much the pick, it's the money. Pitchers are getting screwed over in FA. Masterson has a great shot at getting more money, or at least market money, from the Indians right now than he does going to free agency with a qualifying offer rejection hanging around his neck.

Depends on the team- NY, BOS, LA can piss away money and picks, because they have plenty of money. Unless they have decided not to do that anymore, right this second.

I understand it's not quite a hometown discount- but it also is. To the tune of about 3 years of guaranteed 15 mill+. Look at this list of salaries:

skatingtripods wrote:Teams aren't willing to give up the draft pool money to sign these free agent pitchers. It's not even so much the pick, it's the money. Pitchers are getting screwed over in FA. Masterson has a great shot at getting more money, or at least market money, from the Indians right now than he does going to free agency with a qualifying offer rejection hanging around his neck.

Depends on the team- NY, BOS, LA can piss away money and picks, because they have plenty of money. Unless they have decided not to do that anymore, right this second.

I understand it's not quite a hometown discount- but it also is. To the tune of about 3 years of guaranteed 15 mill+. Look at this list of salaries:

The Indians have not really been shy on paying good players, they have always been wary of keeping them for an extended timeframe.

That's not how it works in the draft anymore. Each team has a finite amount if money to use on draft picks. If you give up a draft pick to sign a FA you also lose the amount of money you were alloyed to spend on that draft pick. The Yankees and Dodgers can't over spend the rest of the clubs in the draft.

skatingtripods wrote:Teams aren't willing to give up the draft pool money to sign these free agent pitchers. It's not even so much the pick, it's the money. Pitchers are getting screwed over in FA. Masterson has a great shot at getting more money, or at least market money, from the Indians right now than he does going to free agency with a qualifying offer rejection hanging around his neck.

Depends on the team- NY, BOS, LA can piss away money and picks, because they have plenty of money. Unless they have decided not to do that anymore, right this second.

I understand it's not quite a hometown discount- but it also is. To the tune of about 3 years of guaranteed 15 mill+. Look at this list of salaries:

The Indians have not really been shy on paying good players, they have always been wary of keeping them for an extended timeframe.

That's not how it works in the draft anymore. Each team has a finite amount if money to use on draft picks. If you give up a draft pick to sign a FA you also lose the amount of money you were alloyed to spend on that draft pick. The Yankees and Dodgers can't over spend the rest of the clubs in the draft.

Correct. But as a corollary, the Dodgers and Yankees can outspend people internationally. See Puig and Alexander Guerrero with the Dodgers. Both Cuban imports that they outbid other teams for.

There are international signing pools as well, but they didn't apply to a guy like Guerrero because he's already 26 and Cuban players have different loopholes than other Latin American countries.

What happens with signing a free agent that was extended a QO is that you lose the "value" of your pick. So for a team like the Dodgers or Yankees, they'd lose the value of a first-round pick. The Dodgers had the seventh-best record last season so they'd pick 24th. Last year, the draft pool money for the 24th pick was $1,893,500. Last season, the Athletics had 12 picks (24th pick in draft) and their pool amount was just $6,306,800. So losing nearly $2M to sign a free agent that was given a qualifying offer is substantial.

So that pick value gets removed from the total amount available to use on the first 10 rounds of the draft. The values are pre-set. Also, if you overspend from your pool, you're subject to financial penalties or loss of future picks.

The team that previously had the player doesn't get that pick (although that'd be an intriguing wrinkle to mix in for the future). They get a supplemental round pick, after the first or second round is completed, depending if the pick was protected or not. The comp pick disappears and everybody moves up one place in the draft order.

The question becomes: Is it worth signing this free agent and losing out on talent in the draft that you can't pay over-slot, as well as drafting one fewer player?

Also, EW, regarding the MLB SP salaries, the qualifying offer rules have been a real game changer. The market is different now. There's also benefit to Masterson in agreeing to a three-year deal because he'll hit the market again at 32 and find another multi-year deal and the CBA is up in 2016, so QO rules will likely change by the time he's a free agent.

Unrelated, I'm seeing a lot on Twitter today about concerns with Ervin Santana's elbow, so it's not entirely the QO that's hurting his market. It also has to do with the fact that locations where he'll succeed are limited to pitcher's parks or teams with good defense. But the QO is part of the equation.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

It does seem like the QO is probably one of the factors making Masterson more likely to stay in Cleveland, and so people would be tempted to assume that the new draft slot rules are an advantage to the small market teams. After all, a marquee pitcher is staying in a small market club and the big market clubs don't have a financial advantage to sign overslot players.

But....big market teams team have not historically outspent the small market teams in the draft anyway. It was teams like the Indians and the Pirates that had been spending on the draft, because it was the one place where they could keep up with the large markets. The one place where they were on equal footing as a practical matter. But now that advantage is gone. No longer can the tribe go overdraft on tough signings in the later rounds of the draft while the large markets focused attention elsewhere.

Ave the large markets are still the teams best able to sign the big money free agents, and also best able to sign the latest/greatest phenols out of Cuba and the East.

No matter what happens with Masterson, in not convinced the draft slot rules and spending cap did the small markets any favors at all, although no doubt the MLB will spin it that way.

1Perry wrote:Someone is going to be more than willing to give up a pick to sign Masterson.

You should read Tripod's post again. Especially the part about it being about the money, not the pick. If teams sign a FA, they not only lose the pick, they lost the amount of money they were allotted to spend on that pick. Makes it much harder to go overslot for guys you really covet.

At least that's how I understand it.

Absolutely. It appears to be working a little bit. Jimenez still got signed for more than the Indians were willing to go and if the team doesn't sign Masterson there will be teams more than willing to.

motherscratcher wrote:It does seem like the QO is probably one of the factors making Masterson more likely to stay in Cleveland, and so people would be tempted to assume that the new draft slot rules are an advantage to the small market teams. After all, a marquee pitcher is staying in a small market club and the big market clubs don't have a financial advantage to sign overslot players.

But....big market teams team have not historically outspent the small market teams in the draft anyway. It was teams like the Indians and the Pirates that had been spending on the draft, because it was the one place where they could keep up with the large markets. The one place where they were on equal footing as a practical matter. But now that advantage is gone. No longer can the tribe go overdraft on tough signings in the later rounds of the draft while the large markets focused attention elsewhere.

Ave the large markets are still the teams best able to sign the big money free agents, and also best able to sign the latest/greatest phenols out of Cuba and the East.

No matter what happens with Masterson, in not convinced the draft slot rules and spending cap did the small markets any favors at all, although no doubt the MLB will spin it that way.

There's another side to the QO that hurts small/mid-market teams. Only the top 10 picks are protected. The top 10 teams are probably waiting on youth movements, so they're not making plays for free agents. The best teams that have high payrolls are probably near their internal budgets and won't make a play for these guys. The teams in the middle, that are smaller payroll that could use a three-win player in free agency can't afford to take the chance of forfeiting a pick and draft money for the FA player to flop. Teams that are good but not good enough can't get better because they can't get the QO guys without a pretty substantial penalty, for lack of a better term.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

Indians trying to limit risk, though it's playing out like I said. Randy Rowley makes a power play to appeal to the notion of a hometown discount, Indians decline and now have to save face with a fan base that doesn't understand. I don't know the exact offer, but let's say it was 3/51. Is Masterson worth 17M per? Difficult to say. 3-year WAR is 9.6, so a 3.2 average, which includes his shitty 2012 campaign. WAR on FA market around 7M, so we'll say 6.5M per win for keeping a player. 51M / 6.5 = 7.85. So Masterson would need to accumulate 7.9 WAR over the three years. Seems like it would be a good deal from that standpoint.

I get their concern with signing pitchers. I think they're looking at the FA market and thinking about a Garza type at 12.5M per plus the $1M+ for a compensation pick and figuring they can replace a Masterson type for a few million less than that, if they're willing to give up the pick. I think their hope would be that they can find a FA starter with that pick hanging around his neck and get a better deal than the Masterson one.

Next year's FA SP class has some intrigue. Lester, Shields, Masterson, Josh Johnson (if he rebounds in SD), McCarthy, Scherzer, Peavy. So there are arms out there. Few bounce back guys with options and buyouts like Chad Billingsley, Yovani Gallardo, Brett Anderson.

I would have liked to keep Masterson, but I understand the logic in not doing it. Unfortunately, it will be a PR disaster.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

Whether or not he is worth the money I don't see any hometown discount in the numbers that have been mentioned.

Seems to me more of an offer of close to market and saying that you never know, someone else may be willing to overpay so he'll sign for going market rate now. I want to see him signed also but it does seem quite a bit for someone coming off a sub par year and a year where he missed the playoff push with an injury.

Homer Bailey just signed for what? 6 years, $100M? Justin Masterson and his agent should be looking for something very close to those numbers, and rightfully so. Spoiler alert: They ain't getting it from Cleveland.

Pabo wrote:Homer Bailey just signed for what? 6 years, $100M? Justin Masterson and his agent should be looking for something very close to those numbers, and rightfully so. Spoiler alert: They ain't getting it from Cleveland.

Nor should they. Why should the Indians allow the Reds overpay to dictate what they pay Masterson?

You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they could and should do for themselves-----Abe Lincoln

Let me tell you, if any of you douchebag empty headed stuffed suit nanny politicians tries to fuck with my bacon, I’m going after you like a crazed chimpanzee on bath salts. -----Lars

I thought the recent rumor was that Masterson was asking for 3 years in the neighborhood of $50 mil. That seems pretty reasonable to me and if that was true I'd have thought the Indians would have jumped all over it.

Big Foot is real, love is not and anything dropped from the kitchen counter immediately falls into the pile of dog hair and coffee grounds located in the corner and under the toe kick of the cabinets rendering The 5 Second Rule void.

The discount is in accepting fewer years. No reason he should accept less money than he thinks he can get on the open market. Since Lord Shap has always been concerned about the length of these deals, Masterson's agent is calling them out for the fools they are.

YahooFanChicago wrote:Why is it that we can't afford to sign this guy, our prior two Cy Young winners, Albert, Manny or Thome but Detroit can re-sign Cabrera for a record $290M 10 year deal??

Mike Ilitch is reportedly worth around 2.4 billion dollars. The Dolans are not.

Not to mention the fact that the back-end of the deal - the part that would be considered the poorest part of the contract...well, if there's a good chance you'll be dead before that occurs, it kinda cancels it out.

YahooFanChicago wrote:Why is it that we can't afford to sign this guy, our prior two Cy Young winners, Albert, Manny or Thome but Detroit can re-sign Cabrera for a record $290M 10 year deal??

Mike Ilitch is reportedly worth around 2.4 billion dollars. The Dolans are not.

Not to mention the fact that the back-end of the deal - the part that would be considered the poorest part of the contract...well, if there's a good chance you'll be dead before that occurs, it kinda cancels it out.

"Win now" if really important for a guy in his mid-eighties.

These things are both true and relevant. However, I'm not convinced that any of these assholes are even close to losing money from the Dodgers on down to the Astros, regardless of payroll. The fact that Ilitch has a ludicrously obscene amount of money and Dolan only has a ridiculously obscene amount of money isn't the deciding factor here.

YahooFanChicago wrote:Why is it that we can't afford to sign this guy, our prior two Cy Young winners, Albert, Manny or Thome but Detroit can re-sign Cabrera for a record $290M 10 year deal??

Mike Ilitch is reportedly worth around 2.4 billion dollars. The Dolans are not.

Not to mention the fact that the back-end of the deal - the part that would be considered the poorest part of the contract...well, if there's a good chance you'll be dead before that occurs, it kinda cancels it out.

"Win now" if really important for a guy in his mid-eighties.

This too. He'll probably let Boras fill in the amount for Scherzer's extension. Not to mention, Dombrowski probably won't look like the asshole if this all goes south because he has a great shot at being the next Commissioner.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

The reason the club gave for not being able to match Justins terms was that they didn't know the ARBY costs of the guys they wanted to keep. Now that Brantley, Yan, and Kipnis are locked up (look at how backloaded those contracts are...nobody really escalates until 3 years from now) I expect the Justin contract will happen shortly.

We are pretty much about to have a Golden Age of Indians baseball for the next 3-5 years. Go Tribe!