Just curious. Inspired by the ongoing thread about "Geno fan" expectations, and I'm curious what the thinking is on the other side of the fence. What do people expect out of Alex Smith over the next, let's say, 2-5 years? Specifics, even, yardage and TDs, wins and losses, offensive rankings, etc. This is not a thread with an agenda, I'm genuinely curious what people think, so let's try to keep this from turning into snipe thread #368.

In the scenario that he referenced Smith throws for 3000 yards and we improve by 5 or 6 wins. Does that not qualify as good?

It depends. I don't expect them to become a SB contender in the first year after going 2-14, and anyone that does is being very unrealistic. I think 7or 8 wins the first year would be a success. I hope for better, since I think we were a better team than the 2-14 record shows, but I think 7-8 wins is a reasonable expectation.

This is more of that hyperbole that seems to be all you are capable of anymore. You have no idea if Alex Smith is going to be as bad as Matt Cassel.

oh please, don't throw me in with gochief and co.

I did my best to give cassel a fair chance as well as the rest of the previous administration.

Alex Smith IS more physically gifted than Matt Cassel but even under Harbaugh it didn't really translate to significant improvement. You could easily lay the improved production onto the 49ers total talent level and better coaching than the Chiefs had.

If Alex Smith doesn't have a clean pocket, he tends to shit the bed.
If Alex Smith has too many bad things happen, he gets nervous and shits the bed.
If you ask Alex Smith to carry too much of a load, he tends to shit the bed.

all of these things are very similar to Matt Cassel and a game-manager level Quarterback.

Thank you. That's a legitimate argument. My point is that I really don't think Reid is bringing Smith in here with the expectation of throwing 20 times a game for less than 200 yards. Our defense was terrible last year.

I'll take a risk here, and I will be called a "true fan," but I think, depending on the draft and barring injury, we will be:

11-5

Alex has:

65% completion
3500 yards passing
20 TDs
7 Ints

I think Charles will be a big benefactor from the switch to Reid's offense and will have over 2,000 all purpose yards.

I also think with Alex's efficiency (some would say game management) our defense will be vaulted into the top 15 in the league, perhaps top 10.

I believe we will win at least one playoff game.

If Smith is injured, then all bets are off....

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Why wouldn't you? Expecting the same results without waiting to see isn't very smart. You are basing it on nothing but your own biases.

I've seen plenty of Alex Smith play to see just how mediocre he is and also him taking hits that are going knock him out of games as he is older. He wont last 3 years starting with the Chiefs. He will play ok but nothing great to be excited about. That is the best expectations I have for him.

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Get after it son

According to most of this place, "good" is wearing red, yellow and an Arrowhead on your helmet.

I'm just trying to get a handle on the expectations.

I mean, I thought 3000 yards and improving by 5 or 6 wins would be categorized as good, solid performance, and a reasonable expectation for the guy, based on his career to date. Expecting more than that would I think fall into the "overinflated expectations" category, to borrow the term from the other thread, and wouldn't I think be fair to the guy.

I also thought Fat Elvis' projections were in the same basic neighborhood, albeit a hair more optimistic than mine. (65% completion, 3500 yards, 20 TDs, 7 Ints). He sees more wins (11 versus my 7-8), but that's not as much about Alex Smith on my end as it is about expecting there to be some flux after a complete front office turnover. Philosophically speaking I also wouldn't head into any season expecting 11 wins, much less a year after going 2-14. You're basically asking to be disappointed there. I try to limit my expectations in that sense.

I'm struggling to figure out where I was unfair, or why my scenario was "bad".

It depends. I don't expect them to become a SB contender in the first year after going 2-14, and anyone that does is being very unrealistic. I think 7or 8 wins the first year would be a success. I hope for better, since I think we were a better team than the 2-14 record shows, but I think 7-8 wins is a reasonable expectation.