The presidential election scheduled for late 2011 is a contest between continuity (the long-term but ageing president, Hosni Mubarak, if he runs), dynasty (his son, Gamal, who may run instead) and improbability (victory goes to an opposition candidate, perhaps a former nuclear sleuth, Mohamed ElBaradei). Assuming a Mubarak is in charge, the government will press ahead with job-creating infrastructure investment. That won't prevent workers from taking to the streets to protest against low wages and poor living standards. Growth will trot along at 5.5%, and the budget deficit will fall—but only to 7.6% of GDP.