Dynasty Stock Watch: Week 3

Buy, sell, and hold analyses can set apart the top dynasty owners from the average ones. But little can be gathered from the analysis without consideration of price. At what cost should I buy? At what cost should I sell?

A “buy” and a “hold” is essentially one in the same – if you don’t own the player, you should be trying to acquire him, and if you do own the player, don’t let him go at the market rate – either way, you want him on your roster. “Sell” is a category by itself – if you don’t own the player, you are running for the hills.

Now on to the goods.

David Wilson, RB, NYG, 5’9’’, 205 lb., 6/15/1991

After two brutal fumbles in week 1, Wilson got the start in week 2 but failed to get anything going, taking his 7 carries for just 17 yards. Through two games, Wilson has rushed 14 times for a mere 36 yards and no touchdowns, and further has failed to tally a catch. While true that the Giants offensive line has been woeful, Wilson must make more out of his touches. Like many young running backs, Wilson struggles in pass protection and protecting the football. But at just 22 years old, Wilson has the running ability like few in the NFL. Neither Brandon Jacobs nor Da’Rel Scott can keep a head-strong Wilson on the pine; it’s only a matter of time before the young back gets his game together. Luckily for dynasty owners, there’s one last chance to buy.

Conclusion – HOLD/BUY up to RB5

Stevan Ridley, RB, NEP, 5’11’’, 220 lb., 1/27/1989

A week one injury to Shane Vereen has afforded dynasty owners one more chance to sell Stevan Ridley at “starting running back” value. Ridley should get the bulk of the carries until Vereen’s return, but that won’t necessarily equate to numbers you want in your starting lineup. His lack of involvement in the passing game at this stage in his career does not bode well for his fantasy upside. Through two weeks, Ridley has rushed 25 times for 86 yards with no touchdowns and no receptions. He’s one fumble away from being relegated to the bench (aside: a player like David Wilson will have a longer leash due to his level of talent than Ridley). The upside doesn’t justify the cost, or the opportunity cost to sell at his market value. Rid yourself of Ridley.

Conclusion – SELL at RB20-25

Alshon Jeffery, WR, CHI, 6’3’’, 216 lb., 2/14/1990

After catching 5 passes for 42 yards on 8 targets in week 1, Jeffery was held to one catch for 11 yards in the Bears’ week 2 win over the Vikings. As the season wears on, Jeffery and Jay Cutler’s relationship will develop, and in turn, Jeffery will do more with his 6.5 targets per game. With Brandon Marshall drawing double teams and Martellus Bennett a viable red zone threat, Jeffery will be single covered each and every week. Weekly consistency may be shaky, but there will be plenty of opportunities for Jeffery to show off his impressive skill set in Chicago’s vertical offense. Jeffery’s big pop will come in 2014, but now is the time to buy before his owners get a taste of his upside. He has just scratched the surface.

Conclusion – HOLD/BUY up to WR15

Eric Decker, WR, DEN, 6’3’’, 218 lb., 3/15/1987

Eric Decker returned from drop-laden week 1 debacle with a solid week 2, snatching 9 passes for 87 yards in Denver’s win over the Giants. Decker was widely regarded as a top 20 dynasty receiver before the season began – too high for a player with his risk profile. Now with Wes Welker in town and the emergence of the Julius Thomas, Decker’s week-to-week scoring will be a questionable bet. Sure, Peyton Manning will keep Decker relevant, but leverage this week 2 performance to sell out in to a more elite long-term option. You may have to swallow a short-term scoring decrease to do so, but better to sell Decker a year early rather than a year late. Even now, you may only find 2-3 owners in your league willing to buy him at his perceived market value.

Conclusion – SELL at WR20

Cam Newton, QB, CAR, 6’5’’, 245 lb., 5/11/1989

Through two weeks, Cam Newton has completed just 37 of 61 passes for 354 yards and a 3:1 TD:INT ratio. Newton has added 53 yards rushing. The numbers don’t paint the whole picture. While Newton has missed some throws, his “weapons” have done little to assist him. Unfortunately for Newton, his arm strength is being wasted – his downfield weapons leave much to be desired. Greg Olsen has left big plays on the field thus far and Steve Smith isn’t the field stretcher he once was. This year could be a maddening one for Cam’s owners, but it will force the Panthers to get him a big-time weapon in the off-season (not the first time we’ve said this). Still, Cam is a fantasy bear and will undoubtedly turn the corner.

Conclusion – HOLD/BUY up to QB3

Philip Rivers, QB, SD, 6’5’’, 228 lb., 12/8/1981

Through two games, Philip Rivers has amassed top 5 numbers, totaling a whopping 614 yards and 7 touchdowns on 50 completions (76 attempts). Let’s not get too excited here. With many quarterbacks struggling through the first two weeks of the season, Rivers’ owners may be in a position to sell the fool’s gold at max value. More than likely, Rivers is a QB2/3 on dynasty teams and wasn’t a costly acquisition this off-season. Rivers is not a player you should “play keep away” from other owners – expect his numbers to come back down to earth, likely as someone is starting him against you. Target 2nd round picks of teams in dire straits at QB, preferably a 2nd that looks to be 2.1-2.6.

Conclusion – SELL at QB20

Julius Thomas, TE, DEN, 6’5’’, 250 lb., 6/27/1988

After erupting in week 1 with 7 grabs for 110 yards and 2 TDs, Julius Thomas was again heavily involved in week 2’s game plan, totaling 6 catches for 47 yards and a TD. It took a while for Thomas to put it together, but Thomas owners are now in for a fun ride. More often than not, owners will be scared to pay the price necessary to justify selling Thomas. Though there will undoubtedly be bouts of inconsistency in JT’s production, his weekly upside makes that inconsistency worth swallowing. It is unlikely that the Broncos will bring back both Wes Welker and Eric Decker next year – we may not see Thomas’ ceiling realized until 2014 – a frightening thought.

Conclusion – HOLD/BUY up to TE5

Kyle Rudolph, TE, MIN, 6’6”, 258 lb., 11/9/1989

Kyle Rudolph will see an increase in value with a new quarterback in 2014, but in the near term remains a very shaky bet for fantasy production behind the arm of Christian Ponder. With 10 targets through two games, Rudolph has secured 5 catches for 69 yards, adding 1 TD. With the tight-end landscape as deep as it is, dynasty owners in need of a short-term starter option should deal Rudolph for an upgrade at the position. Owners with Rudolph as their TE2 would be wise to test the market, but are in better shape to hold Rudolph for his future upside. At just 23 years old, he has yet to reach his potential, making him an interesting stash for rebuild squads.

Love these articles, and great debut Josh. Cam intrigues me. He started slow in 2012 and then just tore it up later in the year. Is this going to be his “MO” or will he simply have that down year that many expected from him last year. Cam is still a hold though as the thought of him with some some legitimate outside weapons (no Steve Smith is not one of them anymore) is a scary good thought. Ridley is a great sell and I would think you wouldn’t have much trouble getting top 20 value for him right now. Between all the RB injuries, Vereen’s in particular, and disappointing starts for many backs Ridley has to be intriguing for many just looking for someone who will touch the ball 15-20/game. Vereen is the back to own when he comes back, so dumping Ridley now (if you can) is a must IMHO. Thanks for the advice

JPeso

Thanks, Dan! I’d love nothing more than to see Hakeem Nicks come back to Charlotte with Cam in the off-season. Ridley is a great example of a guy that the market may value because of his “low floor”, but the lack of ceiling makes him a big-time avoid for me.

jaysports

Good list here! Although I think Ridley is a strong hold right now unless you get an offer worth his preseason value. His stock is in the toilet and I think his owners have to wait for a great game to breath life to his value before trading IMO.

JPeso

Thanks for checking it out, Jay. My concern with Ridley is that, buy holding, you could find yourself with a guy that drops to RB35-40 in value in due time. Despite the workload, his low PPG is troubling, even more so when he’s coughing it up.

Alan Satterlee

Fantastic article!

I am holding Jeffery, going to need him to pitch in over a string of buy weeks in a few weeks/month so would like to see him get a little groove, TD would good too to get going.

JPeso

Thanks, Alan! He’s ready to make an impact. I think it would open that offense up in a big way. We know from the Denver days that Cutler can support two WRs (Marshall/Royal). Will be interesting to see Jeffery’s development unfold.

https://sites.google.com/site/newenglanddynasty/ Ponch

A lot of good stuff here, though I couldn’t disagree more with Ridley. He was the #15 RB in PPR leagues last year – That could very well be his ceiling, so if you can get that sort of value then you definitely do it! He will get the bulk of the carries, as you noted, but I disagree that the production isn’t something you’d want for your lineup; He has shown to be productive, DESPITE involvement in the passing game.

I could be wrong, but I don’t think the value is there right now to sell. Owners are likely leery of the lack of production/fumbling issues, nevermind the pending return of Vereen and the struggles of the Patriots offense as a whole. For these reasons, I think he is a BUY/HOLD (especially after what I anticipate to be another down performance against a stout TB run defense).

I think Vereen is getting FAR too much credit as a ball carrier; Let’s keep in mind his week 1 performance was against the Bills, who haven’t been good against the run since the Bruce Smith days. Vereen is better suited as a Darren Sproles-type swiss army knife, capable of standalone PPR value. Yes, he’ll get some carries, but I’m not so sure it will be significant enough to leave Ridley out of the RB2 picture.

JPeso

Thanks for your thoughts, Ponch. My low valuation for Ridley isn’t really tied to a love for Vereen – that said, I do believe Vereen is the better weapon and, if given big carry opportunities, can be much more effective. They’ll both have a place once Vereen is back, I just worry Ridley’s place isn’t one I want in my lineup. I tend to look at PPG rather than finish showing. Ridley was a bit lower at RB20 last year in PPR PPG, and with replaceable talent, I will deal that RB20 PPG at RB20 PPR dynasty value all day long. For more on Ridley, here was a Dynasty Dilemma I wrote this summer, where I suggested DMC > Ridley. http://dynastyfootballwarehouse.com/dynasty-dilemma-darren-mcfadden-oak-vs-stevan-ridley-nep/

sixshooter

Good write up although I must agree with Ponch and Jeff on Ridley! In our basic PPR Dynasty he scored the 13th most pts amongst RB’s which is the bottom line if you are going for the title! I don’t want a back that I can’t rely on more than 10 – 11 weeks but rather a workhorse week in and week out. I get that Ridley hasn’t been that guy so far this year but he definitely has the potential as proven last year and things may change if/when he gets Gronk and Amendola back and the other receivers can hold on to the ball giving them a receiving threat once again!
And…..one fumble away from the bench? Who is going to tote the ball? Bolden who can’t get healthy? Blount who has proven even less aside from a preseason game?
I don’t argue selling on Ridley if you wish but you should definitely get more than what you are asking in my opinion…..that’s all!

http://www.dynastyfootballwarehouse.com/ Jeff Melbostad

Great write-up Josh. I told you your article would outclass mine. Love the Wilson, Jeffery and Decker calls though I’m not sure you’ll get that kind of value out of Decker but you said as much.

I do have to say that I side with Ponch on the Ridley debate. I don’t see him as being valued very highly right now and he’s proven he can produce. He’ll have a bunch more weeks to do just that again. When Vereen comes back he’ll still have a large role as part of a 1-2 punch. Wait until he has a couple big games before selling if nothing else IMO.

I also still think Julius Thomas is sell but understand I’m in the minority on that one. He’s dead sexy right now but I think things will regress to the mean and he’ll be just another 2nd tier TE (of which there are MANY). That was all hashed out last week though so I’ll shut up now.

Nice work!

JPeso

You’re so modest, Jeff! See Ridley comments below.

Regarding Julius Thomas, I think it depends on how long you’ve liked the guy – if you think he is coming out of nowhere, then you probably believe his value is tied to Peyton’s. I was a big fan of his upside coming out of Portland State and so now, seeing him look so beastly, he isn’t a player I would sell unless you give me a song.

In a 1.5 PPR for TE high-stakes dynasty league, I did deal Julius Thomas for Shane Vereen + Kyle Rudolph after week 1 (knowing Vereen was IRed). We’ll see how that one works out – I’m banking on Rudolph getting an enormous QB upgrade in 2014 as I allude to above.

sixshooter

I actually have three of these guys (Ridley, Thomas and Jeffery) and in a Dynasty League and do not regret any of them……yet! I also had Decker last year and traded him after the season since I also have DeMaryius Thomas!
I drafted JT, dropped him last year and picked him back up in March after hearing that he was healthy and a part of the plan! Jeffery was also drafted in the rookie draft. I gave a second round pick for Ridley prior to last season.
Am not looking at trading any of them but am always willing to listen to offers!