With no real clarity from the usually reliable guild contests and critics awards, the best picture race is one of the most unpredictable in years. Considering the preferential Oscar voting system, it is not probable there will be a winner on the first ballot because it’s unlikely any film in this great year for films will be able to muster more than 50% of the first-place votes required. The second choice on those best picture ballots could end up being the most important. The top three contenders—12 Years A Slave, American Hustle and Gravity—are in a real dog fight, which means a dark horse like The Wolf Of Wall Street, Philomena, Dallas Buyers Club or Nebraska could sneak in if a true three-way split occurs, although I don’t think that scenario is too likely. Never say never though. In 1981 for example no one was expecting a small British film called Chariots Of Fire to sneak in and take Best Picture but indeed it did. The last huge upset in the Picture race was probably Crash over Brokeback Mountain in 2005 but judging from voter interviews that year I saw a tidal wave of last minute support. This year I don’t get that. There are lots of opinions out there and it looks like the Academy is just going to have to find that “consensus ” movie, one that definitely won’t be everyone’s first choice to be sure.

Here are my final predictions for all 24 categories, but if you choose to use this for your office pool, please don’t blame me if you get them all wrong. A lot of these are simply coin flips: Gravity vs. Captain Phillips in Editing and Sound; Leo vs Matthew in Best Actor; Her vs American Hustle in Original Screenplay. And just about anything goes in Best Picture. What a year. It seems we’ll all be on the edge of our seats when that last envelope is finally opened on Sunday night at the Dolby Theatre. Here’s my handicap on the way the races might go beginning with a film-by-film rundown on the uber- competitive Best Picture race.

BEST PICTURE

THE NOMINEES:

AMERICAN HUSTLE

With a director who’s been on a real roll, American Hustle was expected to be an instant major player when it opened in mid-December. It didn’t disappoint and has gone on to be David O. Russell’s most successful film at the box office, a fact that won’t hurt its chances when it comes to voters. With three best picture nominations in the last four years for his films, Russell might be in the Academy’s sights, and this one, with a masterful blend of comedy and drama, could be the ticket.

CAPTAIN PHILLIPS

With six nominations, including the big one, this true-life thriller certainly has its supporters. But when the directors branch shockingly made Greengrass the odd man out and the actors branch bypassed Tom Hanks in what is considered his best performance in years, all bets were off. Those omissions made this an instant dark horse. Recent guild wins at the WGA and the ACE Eddies have helped revive its momentum, but it will take a lot more to pull off a win here.

DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

Dallas Buyers Club’s compelling story of its circuitous 20-year journey just to get to the screen is the stuff of which underdog winners are made. Everyone likes a happy ending, and this micro-budgeted film that only allowed for shooting with available light is on track to win a few Oscars for its stars Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto, and maybe even more. Best picture is still a very big long shot, but miracles have happened before. Could it come in for a Crash landing?

GRAVITY

A smash worldwide hit that became the highest-grossing original live-action film of the year, Gravity also has been applauded for its human drama, despite being a sci-fi pic. With a tie for best picture at the PGAs, a ton of BAFTA awards and a convincing win at the DGAs, it still seems dogged by its genre. No sci-fi film has ever been able to transcend the genre and win best picture. Can this beat the odds? It’s conceivable, but Gravity might not have enough gravitas for the Academy’s highbrow tastes.

HER

Easily the quirkiest film of the nine nominees, Spike Jonze’s clever love story for our age about a man and his operating system just might be too out-there for some older Oscar voters, who had a hard time just adapting to online voting much less accepting a premise of love at first megabyte. Still, the movie has a lot of fans, but probably not enough to carry the day much beyond the original screenplay category, where its “originality” cannot be denied.

NEBRASKA

No question, Alexander Payne is an Academy favorite. His humanist films, such as Sideways and The Descendants, have been in this category before and even won him two writing Oscars, but they always have been overwhelmed in the final vote for picture. Black-and-white movies about plain old folks don’t always have the ingredients for what the Academy considers a Best Picture these days, and that’s a shame. It might just be too “small” to overcome fierce competition.

PHILOMENA

The Weinstein Co.’s little English film—a true-life story about a woman searching for the son she had to give up for adoption—has connected with Oscar voters in a big way. But with no directing nomination for Stephen Frears, it starts out behind in the race for best picture. Can simply loving a movie with heart and heartbreak be enough to pull off a huge upset? Harvey Weinstein’s campaign is based on that premise, and it would be foolhardy to count him out completely.

12 YEARS A SLAVE

Since the fall fests, Fox Searchlight’s true drama about a free black man sold into slavery has been regarded as the one to beat. After stumbling in a couple of early critics contests, it recovered with picture wins at the Globes, CCMAs and PGAs (where it tied with Gravity) and then at BAFTA where it came through in the end. Will the Academy award it or will those who feel the film was too brutal hold it back? “Important” films have always done well in this category and of all the contenders, 12 Years meets that criteria best. It also presents the Academy with an historic opportunity.

THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

Martin Scorsese’s controversial look at the rise and fall of a Wall Street player almost didn’t make the race as the director tried to trim the film to three hours before its release. It not only made the date and earned five key Oscar nominations, it has become his most successful movie at the boxoffice. Still, there seem to be just as many in the Academy who resisted the film as those who fervently loved it. Could it sneak in if the frontrunners split the vote? It’s possible, not likely.

The Winner: GRAVITY( but it looks like a photo finish with Hustle and 12 Years on equal footing in this race. I’m torn folks)

BEST ACTOR
Cannes Best Actor winner Bruce Dern, at 77, would be the oldest to win in this category, and he gives a career-capping performance. Chiwetel Ejiofor was heartbreaking in 12 Years a Slave, but he’s been overlooked a lot this season until that BAFTA win. Christian Bale likely is running in the back of the pack. This seems to be a race between Leonardo DiCaprio and Matthew McConaughey, who coincidentally shared a memorable scene together in The Wolf Of Wall Street. DiCaprio—who won comedy prizes at the Globes and CCMAs and was probably too late for serious SAG consideration—has gotten a huge awards push but a BAFTA win was needed and he didn’t get it. McConaughey is this year’s golden boy, and his wins at SAG, the Globes and CCMAs cement the impression that it’s his time for an Oscar.

BEST ACTRESSEver since Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine came out in August, this has been Cate Blanchett’s Oscar to lose. Even a reprised Allen scandal can’t tarnish this one for her. Though Amy Adams, in her first time in the lead actress race after four supporting nominations, is an attractive alternative, she will probably have to wait one more year. Sandra Bullock was brilliant in Gravity, but it’s a genre that never rewards actors. And Meryl Streep did everything she could in August: Osage County, which was enough to guarantee an incredible 18th nomination, but she just won her third Oscar two years ago.The Winner: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

In a category that often honors veterans, the nominee list has a surprising number of fresh faces. Of the five, only Bradley Cooper and Jonah Hill have previous noms. Jared Leto, one of the first-timers, has won just about every critics group award as well as honors from the Globes, CCMAs and SAG. Heartbreaking in his first film role in six years, Leto is the clear frontrunner, but Cooper provides some daunting competition and Abdi actually took the BAFTA in this category (Leto was not nominated).The Winner: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Supporting actress usually honors newcomers, so 12 Years A Slave’s Lupita Nyong’o had better get her speech ready. Ever since she burst on the screen at the film’s first showing in Telluride, people have been screaming “Oscar”; for now, she’s made do with SAG and CCMA awards. But then out of the blue came another astonishing performance from Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle, which garnered her the Globe and NY Film Critics awards and then a win at BAFTA. Could 84-year-old June Squibb sneak in and upset them all for her hilarious role in Nebraska? And then there’s August Osage County’s Julia Roberts, who is better than she has been in years. I’m just not sure but have made the switch from Nyong’o’s heartbreaker of a role to Lawrence for a second consecutive Oscar win. Call me crazy.The Winner: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

No matter which way the best picture winds blow, there’s no question Alfonso Cuaron has this one in the bag. The technical achievement that carried this emotional story made Gravity an astonishing film. In a category that also includes Martin Scorsese, Alexander Payne and David O. Russell, it seems nuts to call anyone a shoo-in. But even against 12 Years a Slave’s Steve McQueen, this is DGA-, Globe- CCMA and BAFTA winner Cuaron’s to lose.The Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

The Competition: Steve McQueen 12 Years a Slave; Alexander Payne Nebraska; David O. Russell American Hustle; Martin Scorsese The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

No one has emerged as a clear frontrunner in this category based on the precursor awards. John Ridley’s adaptation of Solomon Northup’s autobiography was a daunting challenge, and Ridley did a masterful job bringing it to the screen for a contemporary audience. Billy Ray won the WGA award for Captain Phillips, and that can be a strong indicator except that neither 12 Years nor Philomena (which won at BAFTA) were eligible under the WGA’s strict rules. And because Phillips, largely a directorial showcase, beat The Wolf Of Wall Street at WGA, it doesn’t give Wolf scribe Terence Winter much hope here. The Academy might want to honor the trio from Before Midnight for successfully carrying out a story of a relationship over the course of two decades, but it’s the only screenplay nominee without a best picture nom. Despite a lack of previous wins, 12 Years is probably the one to beat but don’t count out Philomena in an upset.

Even though David O. Russell and Eric Warren Singer’s terrific American Hustle lost to Spike Jonze’s inventive Her at the Globes, the CCMAs and WGAs, all is not lost. Hustle picked up steam at the BAFTAs (where Her was not nominated). This is still a contest, as many Academy members seem to prefer Hustle to the more out-there tone of Her which certainly is the definition of “original ” screenplay if they take it literally.

Denmark’s The Hunt, from director Thomas Vinterberg, and Paulo Sorrentino’s The Great Beauty have the most heat, but a sleeper could be in the wings with Belgium’s well-liked Broken Circle Breakdown .Voting is open to all Academy members for the first time and DVD screeners were sent to the membership. Watching these films on the small screen could favor a quieter more intimate drama like The Hunt over the sweeping visuals of The Great Beauty

Frozen, Disney’s triumphant return to animated musicals, has run away with all the key prizes from the Globes to CCMAs to the PGAs to the Annies. Nearing $1 billion at the global boxoffice with much life left, and with a number-one soundtrack and a new singalong theatrical version, Frozen is sizzling hot. Two other blockbusters, DreamWorks Animation’s The Croods and Universal’s Despicable Me 2, have enjoyed impressive campaigning from their distributors, but it’s unlikely to stop Frozen’s momentum.

In this strong bunch, the most politically urgent film is Netflix’s first-ever nominee, The Square. There is great respect, however, for Joshua Oppenheimer’s The Act Of Killing, which is weird and remarkable in every way. These films have lots of supporters but not on the scale of the heaven-sent musical showcase, 20 Feet From Stardom, which details the lives of backup singers. Music-oriented docs rarely get nominated, but Searching For Sugar Man actually won last year, and that could be the start of a trend.

The Winner: 20 Feet From Stardom

The Competition: The Act of Killing, Cutie and the Boxer, Dirty Wars, The Square

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The stunning sets and art direction from The Great Gatsby’s two-time Oscar winner Catherine Martin (Moulin Rouge) and Beverley Dunn should own this category. It was a winner at the Art Directors Guild Awards, but Her and Gravity also won in their respective categories, so don’t count them out.

The Winner: The Great Gatsby

The Competition: American Hustle, Gravity. Her, 12 Years A Slave

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Catherine Martin’s superior work is the frontrunner, although the 1970s creations of Michael Wilkinson for American Hustle are equally deserving. Patricia Norris took the Costume Design Guild’s honor but she has never won an Oscar and is an icon among costume designers. In this case the entire Academy votes and they will be more impressed with…

The Winner: The Great Gatsby

The Competition: American Hustle, The Grandmaster, The Invisible Woman, 12 Years A Slave

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Anything but ASC and BAFTA winner Emmanuel Lubezki’s stunning and visionary work for Gravity would be a shock here.

The Winner: Gravity

BEST FILM EDITING

Until ACE gave Christopher Rouse the Eddie for Captain Phillips, I would have sworn this statuette had already been engraved for Gravity. But honoring Rouse’s work here would be good for a film that was unfairly snubbed for its director and star.

The Winner: Captain Phillips

The Competition: American Hustle, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, 12 Years A Slave

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

The hair and makeup team’s entire budget for Dallas Buyers Club reportedly wasn’t even enough to cover their nominees Adruitha Lee’s and Robin Mathews’ limo ride to attend the Oscars. Bad Grandpa deserves the win, but I don’t think the Academy has the nerve to make a Jackass movie an Oscar winning film.

The Winner: Dallas Buyers Club

The Competition: The Lone Ranger, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE

Any one of the five nominees could pull off a victory here. On a hunch, I will say this is where the Academy might reward six-time nominee Alexandre Desplat’s lilting Philomena. The Academy owes 11- time nominee Thomas Newman some sort of bauble and his work on Saving Mr. Banks would be a nice place to start but that was the Disney film’s only nomination in a category that includes three Best Picture nominees and yet another nod for 49 time nominee and 5 time winning icon John Williams (The Book Thief). Best Picture juggernaut Gravity from Steven Price is the front-runner here but I have a hunch that it’s…

The Winner: Philomena

The Competition: The Book Thief, Gravity, Her, Saving Mr. Banks

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Bono and U2 took the Globe for their beautiful poem to Nelson Mandela called “Ordinary Love,” but Disney’s Frozen anthem, “Let It Go,” just might be starting a movement. Pharrell Williams’ snappy “Happy” is also getting added heat but…

The Winner: Let It Go from Frozen

The Competition: “Happy” from Despicable Me 2, “The Moon Song” from Her, “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom

BEST SOUND EDITING

Gravity nails it. But Captain Phillips and Lone Survivor shouldn’t be counted out, especially the latter as war films always do well in this category.

The Winner: Gravity

The Competition: All Is Lost, Captain Phillips, The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug, Lone Survivor

BEST SOUND MIXING

Again, this should go to Gravity, but Captain Phillips and Lone Survivor are strong competition. If Gravity loses in these categories it could be a very long night for the space epic just as it was for another breakthrough 3D masterpiece, Avatar a few years ago.

Easily Gravity. You’re kidding, right? You mean there are four other nominees in this category???

The Winner: Gravity

The Competition: The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug, Iron Man 3, The Lone Ranger, Star Trek Into Darkness

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The Lady In Number 6 covers subjects the Academy often honors in this category: aging and Holocaust survivors. How can it lose? The subject of the film , Alice Herz Sommer passed away Sunday at the age of 110. It should be an emotional moment.

The Winner: The Lady In Number 6: Music Saved My Life

The Competition: CaveDigger, Facing Fear, Karama Has No Walls, Prison Terminal: The Last Days Of Private Jack Hall

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Get A Horse! is an inventive 3D toon , and the best film Mickey Mouse has been in since Fantasia. It’s also the first animated Disney film solely directed by a woman, Lauren MacMullan. Room On The Broom and Mr. Hublot provide rich delights and could have won in any other year.

The Winner: Get A Horse!

The Competition: Feral, Mr. Hublot, Possessions, Room on the Broom

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

The clear jewel here is Denmark’s touching Helium, about a hospital worker and a dying boy. All the contenders are from other countries outside of the U.S. and only one , Britain’s The Voorman Problem is in English. That might give it an advantage but it’s Helium that has the heart.

The Winner: Helium

The Competition: Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me), Avant Que de Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything), Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?), The Voorman Problem

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Gravity is NOT Sci-Fi, can we Please stop labeling it as such?
It is a drama set in outer space. No aliens, no “Science Fiction”. It’s a drama.
2001 was Science Fiction, with the monolith, etc.
Gravity is not.

Gravity IS science fiction. It’s a fictional story set in space and come to think of it more than a little far-fetched. On the other hand Apollo 13 is NOT sci-fi, it’s a dramatization of events that HAVE happened.

Gravity is in the sci-fi grey area. It’s technically in the sci-fi genre (at least, according to Websters)—but, then again, so is Contagion, Side Effects, The Bourne Legacy and a host of other movies that don’t strike most people as “sci-fi”. Science fiction technically encompasses any movie with a significant science focus, whether that science is real or speculative/fanciful.

But, because—like most movies—Gravity spans multiple genres, branding it a “science fiction movie” (instead of a “disaster movie” or, simply, “drama”) would be like calling The Bourne Legacy a science fiction movie, rather than an action thriller.

Gravity may fall within the sci-fi genre, but sci-fi is neither its primary nor its defining genre: Calling it “a science fiction movie” is like doing the same for Mission Impossible.

For me, the core of science fiction is its illumination of larger issues than, say, basic survival. Contagion is science fiction because it’s not merely a “whodunit” but uses its conflict to explore human/societal reactions to the plague. I don’t think Gravity is any more science fiction that, say, All is Lost. It is a survival story set in space.

No it won’t. She is a very talented and very popular young star who made the right choice to stay away from Oscar campaigning and has made another wise choice to take a break after THG is finally finished filming. Jennifer Lawrence will be more than fine.

@RJ I agree with you that Jennifer Lawrence(if she wins) will probably face the backlash that Anne Hathaway faced last year after winning the Oscar. In my opinion, Amy Adams is the only cast member of American Hustle that deserves to win but unfortunately Cate Blanchett(amazing performance in Blue Jasmine) is going to walk away with the Oscar for Best Actress.

Although I’m rooting for Lupita to win supporting actress, I would also be happy if either Sally Hawkins or Julia Roberts won.

I’m sorry, but it needs to be said, I have no idea what the hype over Jennifer Lawrence is. She sucks. Her role in American Hustle was not worth any nominations. It was downright amateur and terrible. Who is buying her publicity and awards?

Great analysis Pete….I agree with most of your predictions, but still think Lupita is taking Supporting Actress….based on my chats with Academy members, I think if 1 film can sneak in as the consensus favorite and slip past the apparent top 3 films, it will be Philomena, which is loved by Academy members and, while not most voters #1 choice, it definitely lands in their top three.

Well this is the first year that I probably won’t watch. Because it’s so predictable. And I can’t stand American Hustle and they will give it awards. I don’t want Jenifer Lawrence to win because she wasn’t that good in that movie. I don’t want Matthew McConaughey to win because he cheated with his weight and I hate when actors do that for Oscar and then they are rewarded not for their acting but for their weigh loss.

And I think Fassbender was better then Leto. But they will give it to Jared. And Cate’s win is the most boring and predictable thing whole awards season. I know that I will watch and will be disappointed with every award. And then sit for 4 hours and watch how those rich and perfectly pretty people award and praise themselves and cry after one of them gives some inspirational speech. And praise and praise themselves…. Nah. I’ll skip and then read the winners. Gravity was the only movie that I really liked from all of those nominees. Very disappointing and boring year.

I’ve always relied on Pete for my Oscar Pool but last year he screwed me, so I’m concerned about this year. Some of his predictions scare me. Gravity for Best Picture? Jennifer Lawrence for Supporting Actress? Yeah… you might have another off-year, Pete.

GRAVITY as a best picture? Honestly people, everyone needs to wake up!! If you take away the visual elements from that film away, it’s average – at best! Curran deserves Best Director, yes, but this is NOT a best picture by any means and is riddled with plot holes. Sandra was ok, but not great – and Clooney, playing Georgle Clooney isn’t really anything groundbreaking.

Hahahaha, your comment is beyond ridiculous. Also, I would be interested as to what plot holes you are referring to (and keep in mind this is a fictional movie–that “it’s impossible to fly that far” stuff doesn’t count).

And just to let you know, in case you didn’t, this sentence is awfully close to what you said:
You know, if you take all the characters out of 12 Years a Slave it would have been an average movie. Not even worth a Best Picture Nomination. Honestly people, everyone needs to wake up!!

Brutally Honest is just that. Gravity is not BP material. You can take visual effects out of a movie and still have a great movie. You don’t need visual effects to have a best picture film. The essential elements of a film are acting, directing, and writing. You take any of those out and you won’t even have a film so your analogy is misguided.

The real achievement of Gravity is that is a visual masterpiece. Bullock’s character is overrated because you can replace her with any sympathetic character and we would still have a movie about someone trying to get back home from outer space. And yeah, Clooney was playing Clooney. There was also essentially no writing in this film.

Best Picture should go to the most complete film. Gravity is good but not complete.

@Rob…Deal with it. Art is subjective. In my opinion, Jennifer Lawrence gave a better performance than that of Lupita which was though emotional but behind the curtain, there isn’t much going on. Or how come Jennifer is going toe to toe with her awards-wise without campaigning?

Many just find it difficult to acknowledge that Jennifer gave at least an impressive performance with display of acting range, comic timing and superb line delivery. I hope many hit their heads against walls when she becomes a two-time academy award winner….@23!!!!!

Saying that Lawrence did not campaign is a misconception. She might not have put her face out much – the retreat itself was a good form of campaign -, but her publicist did the work for her. Every single day there was an article out there, on important outlets, talking about her, praising her and reminding us of her so-called coolness.

Ugh, Sally Hawkins was better than Lawrence, Lupita, and Squibb. She perfectly balanced out Blanchett’s great performance. People compare her performance to Blanchett to diminish it but that’s because Cate was so good. Hawkins was better than her competition.

What a shame the race boiled down to the too young over rewarded already has it all Lawrence and unproven sorta overrated Lupita.

I really want leo to win because it’s the best performance by any actor in years. Cate is a bit overrated for this performance. Lipita is not as great either– soap is really her only scene whereas jennifer literally lit up the screen every time she was on, I would love Sally Hawkins to win before Lipita. Bradley cooper should get it for his one two punch with silver linings playbook.

I agree. I found Lupita to be overshadowed from the rest of that incredible cast. The only element to 12 YEARS A SLAVE that didn’t live up to the hype was her. Whether on Sunday or in a few years, Lupita is very talented and will be an Oscar winner.

Gravity should win everything allowed for technical, editing, sfx, musical score, sound effects, stunning visuals and even for detail afforded. Expected performances from Ms. Bullock and Clooney do not merit the film best picture though. Where Gravity wowed the visuals senses, Philomena tore at the heart, thus I would love to see Philomena take best picture and Judi Dench wins best actress.

The Studio Ghibli film The Wind Rises by the great Miyazaki, his last film, is much more serious, dramatic, heart-wrenching, poignant and braver and better than Frozen. Try to get over your stereotype over Japanese animation films, much better than any American animated fare, save for pre-Cars 2 Pixar. And this is a guy who watched Frozen 3 times. and Ordinary love is better than Let it Go.

The Best-Supporting Actress category is generating out-of-bounds heat! What is absolutely cringe-worthy is hearing people on TV say that if Lawrence beats Lupita, that “there will be rioting in the streets.” As you acknowledged this is wild race to predict, and we all know, of course, that comparing performances is completely subjective. But how can people get so fired up that they blame Jennifer Lawrence if some reviewers and Academy voters actually choose her performance over Lupita’s? Why the backlash against Lawrence? It started after her nomination. Snarky people take the fun out of it! Comments like ‘rioting’ comment, make me sick. The Oscars should be a celebration.

I know that Jennifer Lawrence is extremely popular and she gave a great performance, BUT I don’t think Hollywood is going to give her two Oscars at such a young age. She has so many great performances ahead of her and she’ll be nominated again. Lupita was brilliant!