Analysis

First round-the-world solar flight takes off from
UAE
A plane began a ground breaking attempt yesterday to fly around
the world using only solar power. The plane, which set off from Abu
Dhabi for the 35,000km flight, has almost 17,250 solar cells built
into the wing to supply four electric motors and recharge lithium
batteries that allow the plane to fly at night. While solar power
may not provide a solution to decarbonising the aviation industry,
the event is meant to raise awareness of the potential for
renewable technology to revolutionise everyday energy use, say the
pilots. BusinessGreen and Ars Technica also reported on the
launch. The Telegraph has the event in pictures.
Reuters

Climate and energy news

Global warming 'set to speed up to rates not seen
for 1,000 years'
New evidence suggests the rate at which temperatures are rising in
the northern hemisphere could be 0.25 degrees Celsius per decade by
2020 - a level not seen for at least 1,000 years. Different
scenarios of future emissions showed that even at the lower end of
greenhouse gas generation, climate change picked up speed in the
next 40 years. The Daily Mail and Scientific American also have the story.
Carbon Brief covered the new study here. Press
Association via Guardian

Nasa animation reveals perfectly choreographed
orbits of crafts around Earth
NASA has created a mesmerising video showing the path its 18
satellites take as they orbit earth 400 miles above our heads. The
spacecraft circle the planet once every hour and a half measuring
rainfall, solar irradiance, clouds, sea surface height, ocean
salinity and other global properties. Some satellites circle Earth
at the poles, monitoring the entire globe as it rotates beneath
them. Some keep their positions fixed relative to the sun at all
times, allowing them to study each spot on Earth at the same local
time every day. Others take a diagonal sweep across Earth's
surface. Wired also covered the new NASA video.
Mail Online

Study: electric cars could save UK $13bn in fuel
costs by 2030
By 2030 the cost of fuelling the average new low carbon car could
be £600 cheaper than the average car today, with electric cars
saving almost £1,000 every year in reduced fuel bills, according to
new research. Low carbon technologies could cut carbon dioxide
emissions from cars and vans in the UK by as much as 47% by 2030
and 80% by 2050, says the new report by Cambridge Econometrics.
Meanwhile, a separate report by Massachusetts based BCC Research
says the global electric vehicle market is expected to reach £72.7
billion by 2019, reports BusinessGreen.
BusinessGreen

The rate of climate change we're experiencing now is
faster than at any time in the last millennium, a new study
shows.

Researchers compared how temperature varied over
40-year periods in the past, present and future, and concluded that
the Earth is entering a new "regime" of rapid temperature
change.

We're already locked into fast-paced changes in the
near future because of past emissions, the researchers say.

That means we'll need to adapt to minimise the impacts
of climate change, even if greenhouse gas emissions are cut
substantially.

Peaks and troughs

A look back at how global temperatures have changed
over the past century shows how temperature
rise of the Earth's surface has been anything but
smooth.

These peaks and troughs are in part caused by natural
phenomena, such as
volcanic eruptions and
El Niño, which influence the Earth's climate from year to
year.

The graph below shows average global surface
temperatures for every year back to the 1850s. You can see that
temperature changes from decade to decade do not always happen at
the same pace. This is the impact of
natural cycles in climate, which can either work to
enhance or dampen the long-term warming trend over short
timescales.

A new study, published in Nature Climate
Change, shows how much faster temperature has increased in
recent decades compared to any time over the last 1,000 years.

Smart meters energy saving project at risk, say
MPs
Plans to install energy saving smart meters in every UK home and
business by 2020 are falling behind, an influential group of MPs
has warned. The Energy and Climate Change committee says the
project was in danger of becoming a costly mistake, with a series
of "technical, logistical and public communication issues"
resulting in delays. The energy industry may struggle to recruit
and train up to 10,000 engineers that will be needed to install the
53 million meters, The Telegraph reports. The Guardian says one key delay has been
an argument between utilities and the government over how much of
the £200 cost of each installation should ultimately be added to
consumer bills. BBC News

Climate and energy news

Climate summit's pledges on carbon cuts 'won't
avert global disaster'
Pledges at this year's climate summit to cut carbon emissions are
likely to fall far short of the targets needed to avoid a 2 degrees
Celsius temperature rise. That is the stark conclusion of a report
by a team led by British economist Nicholas Stern. Planned cuts in
global emissions will still leave the world emitting 10 billion
tonnes of carbon a year too much, the report says.
The Observer

Climate change must stay on political agenda, say
protesters
Thousands of climate change activists marched on the Houses of
Parliament yesterday to urge politicians to start taking global
warming seriously. The march, called "Time to Act", was designed to
increase support for action ahead of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change in Paris in November. Organisers said
that 20,000 people turned out, but other estimates put the crowd at
about 5,000, says the Independent. Fashion designer Vivienne
Westwood spoke to the crowd via video link, reports The Times, warning the government that "The
clock is ticking". Green party MP Caroline Lucas, Head of
Greenpeace UK John Sauven, and author Naomi Klein also gave
speeches, says The Guardian. The
Independent

Arctic sea ice near its all-time minimum low and
could break previous record
Sea ice in the Arctic is near its all-time minimum for the end of
winter and could break the previous record within the next two
weeks if it fails to grow, according to the latest satellite data.
The area of the Arctic covered by floating sea ice is already the
lowest for this time of year, reports The Independent. Scientists
at the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre say it is still too
early to say whether the record is likely to be broken this year.
The Independent

The long-awaited El Niño has arrived. After keeping a
close eye on evolving conditions in the Pacific, scientists
yesterday announced the official onset of El Niño, a phenomenon
affecting weather worldwide. But the nascent event is likely to
have little global impact, scientists say.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre
upgraded its assessment from 'El Niño Watch' to 'El
Niño Advisory', meaning an event is now occurring.

Scientists have classified the current event as a
"borderline, weak El Niño" with a 50 to 60 per cent chance of
persisting through Spring. Its weak strength and late timing mean
"widespread or significant global impacts" are unlikely,
yesterday's report says.

An unsure start

Every five years or so, a change in the winds causes a
shift to warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the
equatorial Pacific Ocean - known as
El Niño. Together with its cooler counterpart, La Niña, this is
known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and is
responsible for most of the fluctuations in global weather we see
from one year to the next.

The
official threshold for when the ocean passes into
an El Niño state is when sea surface temperatures,
averaged over three months, exceed 0.5 degrees Celsius in the
central and eastern Pacific. The
latest data for February show average sea surface
temperatures 0.6 degrees above average, as the map below shows.
(Click
here for an animated version.)

Average sea surface temperature in the tropical
Pacific for the week of 25th Feb. Anomalies are relative to
1981-2010 weekly average. Source:
NOAA Climate Prediction Centre

Normally, warmer water at the sea surface triggers a
sequence of interactions between the atmosphere and ocean that
amplifies the initial warming, and an El Niño builds.

Sea surface temperatures have been hovering at or
around the critical point for
several months, prompting predictions that El
Niño was on its way as far back as
last April.

A guest post from Prof Halvard
Buhaug, Research Director and Research Professor at the Peace
Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO).

Does climate change constitute a threat to peace and
security? Many agree that it does. The US administration's new
National Security Strategy, launched last month, portrays
climate change as 'an urgent and growing threat.'

And this week, a new
study appears to add scientific credibility to this
concern, suggesting human-caused climate change contributed to the
drought that preceded the Syrian civil war.

So does the Syrian case represent a general pattern,
where climate changes and extremes are systematically increasing
conflict risk? The short answer is no. But if scientists want to
explore these links more closely, there are a few steps they need
to take.

Cacophony of different findings

Recent
research has reported a strong effect of climate extremes
on violent conflict,
yet many researchers question the robustness of
such a link.
Some even argue the relationship between climate and
conflict is so complex that it can never fully be captured and
understood.

There are legitimate reasons to be concerned about the
impacts of climate change on security. However, a decade of
research into the area appears to have produced more confusion than
knowledge. But the
cacophony of different findings and
inadequate scientific evidence could be the result of poor
data and simplistic research designs, rather than because no
relationship exists.

In trying to establish links that can be observed and
quantified, I see five key challenges that need to be
addressed.

El Niño arrives later and weaker than
expected
The long-awaited Pacific weather phenomenon has finally arrived -
but will have not have a major impact on global weather patterns,
forecasters say. "This Niño is weak in strength, and it's also
quite late," the deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction
Center told Nature. It therefore is unlikely to alleviate
California's drought, reports Time. However, if even a weak El Niño persists
through to summer, 2015 is likely to top 2014 as the hottest year
on record, says Climate Progress. El Niños usually develop in
the latter part of the year and peak from December to April, and
are often associated with warmer temperatures and changing
precipitation patterns. Climate Central, Scientific American and the New York Times also covered the story.
Nature

Arctic sea ice is getting thinner faster than
expected
Sea ice is not only covering less of the planet, it's also getting
significantly thinner, a new study has found. Data compiled from a
range of sources for the first time finds sea ice thickness down
65% since 1975 because of global warming - much faster than models
have estimated. Guardian Environment
Network

EU offers €100m to connect energy
networks
The European Commission has launched a €100 million (£72.3m) pot
for projects aimed at connecting energy networks across the EU. It
is inviting companies to bid for a share of the cash to "end energy
isolation, eliminate energy bottlenecks and complete the European
energy market", Energy Live News reports.
Energy Live News

Government tells Russian billionaire: you have
seven days to save North Sea gas deal
The Government has given Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman seven
days to explain why he should not be forced to sell North Sea gas
assets. Mr Fridman gained control of the UK fields on Monday as
part of a £3.6 billion deal to buy the oil and gas division of
Germany's RWE. The Government is concerned production at the fields
could be halted if the West imposes more sanctions on Russia over
Ukraine, and it therefore wants them sold to a third party.
The BBC, The Times and Reuters have similar coverage.
The Telegraph

Climate and energy news

Industry lobbyists weakened Europe's air pollution
rules, say Greenpeace
New limits on air pollution in Europe have been watered down
because governments are allowing some of the worst polluters to
help draw up the rules, according to a Greenpeace investigation. Of
352 members of an European Union technical working group, 183 are
either employed by the companies that are being regulated, or by
lobby groups that represent those companies, the investigation
found. The proposed EU standards on coal emissions will be less
strict than in China, Greenpeace says.
The Guardian

Energy networks face investigation over 'too high'
costs to consumers
Energy network companies face investigation by the Competition and
Markets Authority (CMA) after British Gas complained that the
prices they charge are too high. Ofgem last year approved plans by
five electricity distribution companies to spend £17 billion on
their networks over the eight years from April. But British Gas has
appealed to the CMA, saying it will be "materially affected by the
decision", because it has to pass the costs on to customers.
The Telegraph

Drax branches out into renewable heat market with
wood pellet firm deal
Drax has bought Billington Bioenergy (BBE), the UK's second largest
wood pellet distributor, as the power generator ramps up its move
into the renewable heat market. The acquisition, for an undisclosed
fee, will see Drax supply wood pellets through BBE to commercial
and domestic customers as a low carbon alternative to fossil fuels
such as heating oil, LPG, and solid fuels.
BusinessGreen

Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat MP for Kingston and Surbiton,
has been the UK's longest-serving secretary of state for energy and
climate change since taking office in February 2012. The Liberal
Democrats have been in coalition with the Conservative party since
the last general election in 2010.

Here, Davey discusses a wide range of issues:
his vision for a zero-carbon Britain by 2050; why the Treasury's
economic modelling assumptions are "rubbish"; why some
Conservatives are "crazy" about fracking; why the proposed Hinkley
C nuclear plant would be value for money; why the world needs to
get off fossil fuels within "30-40 years"; why maximising North Sea
oil doesn't contradict low-carbon objectives; what form of energy
he'd invest his own money in; and why energy bills would have been
higher if a Conservative had been in charge of his department since
2010 instead of a Liberal Democrat...

CB: This week, you've been setting out the
"Green Magna Carta" and the Lib Dems have pledged for the UK to be
zero-carbon by 2050. What does that mean exactly and how do you
intend we get there? And how are we going to pay for
that?

ED: The Green Magna Carta is going to be on the
frontpage of the Lib Dem manifesto. It's basically five green bills
and I had that idea because I wanted to make sure that we could
build on the success that we've had here in energy and climate
change, in our department, but also fill in the gaps in other
departments,
DCLG [Department for Communities and Local Government],
DEFRA [Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs] and
others, to really take forward the environment and climate change
agenda, very strongly in the first half of the next Parliament,
with a big legislative agenda. So, we've got the green transport
bill, the zero waste bill, the green homes bill, a nature bill and
a zero-carbon Britain bill. The zero-carbon Britain is about
raising our ambition.

We've all seen the pictures of polar bears stranded on
sea ice. They're
all too often used as the iconic poster animals of a
rapidly changing climate.

Every now and again, claims emerge in the media that polar
bears' plight might not be so serious after all. Just recently,
Peter Hitchens said in the
Mail on Sunday polar bears are "doing extremely well right
now" and that claims otherwise are "just hot air".

Carbon Brief has dug through the literature and spoken to polar
bear experts. While little is known about some remote bear
populations, it's clear there's no scientific basis for such
optimism. As temperatures rise, polar bears face a bleak future
ahead, scientists tell us.

Claims about polar bears on the
up

The crux of Hitchens' argument is that polar bear
numbers are rising around the world, not falling. He quotes
biologist
Dr Susan Crockford, who says:

"On almost every measure, things are looking good for
polar bears ... It really is time for the doom and gloom about
polar bears to stop."

This stems from a report authored by Crockford
and published last
week by the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a climate skeptic
think tank. Entitled, "
20 good reasons not to worry about polar bears", the
report describes itself as a "resource for cooling the polar bear
spin".

"Polar bears are not currently
threatened with extinction due to declining sea ice, despite the
hue and cry from activist scientists and environmental
organisations."

Similarly, a Mail on Sunday
article from last September, also featuring
Crockford, claimed: "The poster boys of climate change thrive
in the icy Arctic: Polar bears defy concerns about their
extinction."

So, what is the evidence for the claims? And do other scientists
agree there's no cause for alarm?

Focus on green tech to tackle climate change, says
UK's climate adviser
Former chief scientific adviser to the UK government, Sir David
King, has called for a stronger emphasis on green technology to
curb climate change, alongside countries' pledges to cut emissions.
Speaking at an IPPR event in London, King said if new biofuel
technology were rolled out in China, for example, the effect could
be "enormous". RTCC reports King's comments about the UK
government "working overtime" to secure an ambitious deal at the
Paris climate talks, calling climate change the "biggest diplomatic
challenge of our time". The
Guardian

Climate and energy news

Power plants paid to stay idle, MPs
say
MPs have warned the government's new "capacity market" - aimed at
making sure there's enough power generated at peak demand - favours
fossil fuels over "promising" clean technology by providing
payments for power plants to stay online that would otherwise be
closed or mothballed. The Energy and Climate Change Committee said
the initiative risks raising carbon emissions and could also lead
to higher energy costs. BusinessGreen has more on yesterday's
report. BBC News

China set to tighten coal and carbon caps in next
five year plan
A leading expert on China's climate strategy has said the
country's next Five Year Plan, covering 2016-2020, is likely to
include tougher caps on coal burning. Speaking at an event in
London, the official said he expected absolute limits to extend
beyond the 30 percent of provinces currently covered, and that peak
emissions may happen sooner than 2030. BusinessGreen has more on the story.
RTCC

Bank of England warns of huge financial risk from
fossil fuel investments
The Bank of England has warned Insurance companies they could
suffer a "huge hit" if their investments in fossil fuel companies
are rendered worthless by action on climate change. Though such
concerns are yet to fully permeate the sector, there are already a
few "specific examples of this having happened", a representative
of the bank told an insurance conference yesterday.
The Guardian