The authors of the DOE report say in all the market scenarios examined, LNG exports resulted in a net economic gain.

“In all of these cases, benefits that come from export expansion more than outweigh the losses from reduced capital and wage income to U.S. consumers, and hence LNG exports have net economic benefits in spite of higher domestic natural gas prices. This is exactly the outcome that economic theory describes when barriers to trade are removed.”

The Winners

The push for exports makes sense for producers who have become the victims of their own success. U.S. Natural gas prices have plummeted in recent years due to increased production in gas plays like the Marcellus Shale. The price of natural gas in the U.S. now hovers around $3.50 per million British thermal units. But in Europe that same amount of gas fetches more than $10. So exports would help producers by reducing domestic supply and increasing prices. The report, conducted for the DOE by the economic consulting firm NERA, says exports make sense as long as there’s a glut of natural gas with low production costs in the U.S. and a high demand overseas. The study concludes that new LNG export terminals would result in just slight increases in the price of natural gas.

“Natural gas price changes attributable to LNG exports remain in a relatively narrow range across the entire range of scenarios. Natural gas price increases at the time LNG exports could begin range from zero to $0.33 (2010$/Mcf). The largest price increases that would be observed after 5 more years of potentially growing exports could range from $0.22 to $1.11 (2010$/Mcf). The higher end of the range is reached only under conditions of ample U.S. supplies and low domestic natural gas prices, with smaller price increases when U.S. supplies are more costly and domestic prices higher.”

The report’s authors point out that even with the highest price jump, natural gas remains much cheaper than oil. This is good news for producers, pipeline companies that would transport the gas to the export terminals, and those who invest in these companies.

The Losers

But the DOE report does say LNG exports will depress real wages, due to increased costs in fuel.

“Households with income solely from wages or government transfers, in particular, might not participate in these benefits.”

Biltz says in the late 1990s the U.S. started to run out of cheap natural gas. Prices that were once about $3.50 per million British thermal units, jumped as high as $14 before 2008. Since natural gas liquids are the raw materials for plastics, and the largest cost to a manufacturer, a lot of those industries left the U.S. But Biltz says those jobs are coming back thanks to cheap natural gas. Dow Chemical criticized the DOE’s study as “flawed.”

“The report issued by the DOE on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports is flawed, misleading, and based on outdated, inaccurate and incomplete economic data,” said DOW CEO Andrew N. Liveris in a press release. “The report fails to give due consideration to the importance of manufacturing to the U.S. economy. Manufacturing is the largest user of natural gas in the U.S., and creates more jobs and more value to the U.S. economy from natural gas than any other sector.”

Liveris is leading the charge against LNG exports and founded a lobbying group called America’s Energy Advantage to promote keeping natural gas at home.

Marcellus Shale production is expected to continue, an industry analyst said, and “we’re rapidly approaching a point where you may need to build capacity out of the Marcellus all the way to the Gulf Coast, and that’s an expensive proposition.”