>> Friday, February 03, 2012

What a snowstorm out in the Rockies spilling into the Plains! Denver will wind up with 12-18" before the snow ends. This is a storm system you would more typically see in March or April as opposed to early February, complete with those heavy snows on the northwest side of the low and severe weather in the warm sector.

For our region, after a dry day today (with cooler high temps than yesterday), we will see the rain develop in tomorrow. The rain could arrive as early as tomorrow morning for the mountains, foothills, and I-85 corridor with the rain marching eastward through the day. Highs tomorrow will be chilly....struggling to make it into the lower 50s in spots where the rain arrives early.

I will maintain some shower chances into Sunday as a front drops south through the area.

It is interesting to note that the 0z Canadian model today phased two pieces of upper level energy and developed snow into the region Sunday night into Monday morning. But as of the 0z model cycle, it is on its own with that solution, and it appears unlikely. Interesting to note nonetheless.

The GFS is still hanging on to the Gulf of Mexico low pressure idea it has had for days and days. It bring the low from the Gulf to off of the Carolina coast late next work week. The Euro is far more suppressed with the system, as is the Canadian.

Even on the GFS solution, the cold air retreats prior to the precip arriving, so at this point, I don't think there is anything to get excited about for snow fans.

Longer range...

The European model collapses the western North American ridge later in the run, as does the GFS to some extent. The GFS then redevelops the ridge mid-month.

On the Atlantic side, there are some hints of ridging up into Greenland toward mid-month on both the operational GFS and Euro, but nothing concrete yet. This has been the missing ingredient for winter weather fans in the eastern US this winter. I am not sold on its development yet though.

>> Thursday, February 02, 2012

Please see today's edition of the video. I spend a lot of time in there talking about the overall pattern, what has been 'wrong' with a normally overall fairly good set-up, and whether or not that might change later this month.

Sunshine will build into the region today with highs in the upper 60s and even lower 70s again in spots. Lows will return to the mid and upper 30s tonight.

Tomorrow will be nice, albeit a touch cooler with lots of upper 50s for highs.

Weekend...

No real changes to my thoughts for the weekend. Rain will likely arrive by Saturday afternoon, and then we will likely have rain at times Sunday and Monday. Temps will be on the cool side, especially Sunday and Monday as high pressure wedges in from the north.

Next week and beyond....

Tuesday and Wednesday look sunny and relatively cool. The GFS remains adamant that a Gulf of Mexico low pressure will form and track off the Carolina coast later next week. There is not much agreement with the GFS on the European or Canadian model.

Let's just say for argument's sake that the GFS is right. That low pressure (on the 0z run at least) takes a climatologically perfect track for snow in portions of the Southeast US. However, I just don't get the feeling that it will produce winter weather (if the system actually exists at all). The cold air (and it's really cold up around the Great Lakes at that time) just looks to stay a little too far north. I wouldn't rule out winter weather somewhere around here with it, I just think it's unlikely at this point.

Overall pattern....

Western North America ridge? Check. Negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation? Check. Why no sustained eastern US cold? In short, the NAO remaining positive thus far. The Pacific flow is raging, and without any Atlantic blocking (-NAO), the cold shots are transient at best.

Will this change? See the video for much, much more on the longer range.

>> Wednesday, February 01, 2012

Take a look at today's edition of the video....

We will have some showers spread into the region as we head into this afternoon and tonight as a slow-moving cold front crawls into the region. Rain amounts do not look terribly impressive with this system.....the upper end is probably around 0.5," and that's probably generous for most.

Some sun will return by tomorrow afternoon, and then Friday is quiet and slightly cooler before our weekend system begins to arrive.

It still looks cooler this weekend, but the cold air damming does not look as pronounced as it did earlier in the week. So, probably 50s for a lot of us this weekend. Rain will arrive later Saturday and continue into portions of Sunday.

The GFS dries us out for Monday, while the European model is slower with the entire system overall, so some rain could definitely extend into portions of Monday.

Next week....

I don't have a lot of confidence in how the second half of next week will unfold. There looks to be the chance of a Gulf of Mexico low pressure or two during this time frame, but I just don't know yet whether they will get suppressed to our south or whether or not they impact the region. If they do spread precip in, it could very well be too warm for most to see anything but rain. Just don't know yet.

As I discussed in the video today, since the GFS could very well be wrong in its handling of the features Sunday-Monday, it doesn't give me a lot of confidence that it is right later next week.

Longer term, the European model breaks down the western North American ridging mid-month, while the GFS and its ensembles on the 0z run today generally keep the ridge in place.

>> Tuesday, January 31, 2012

I spend a lot of time in today's video looking at the longer range....give it a look.

Beautiful weather is on tap for our Tuesday as we will have lots of sun and highs well into the 60s.

Our next system is still on schedule to bring us some shower chances tomorrow night into Thursday morning. At this point, I am not impressed with the rain amounts coming from this system.

Weekend...

It does appear that a cold air damming episode will transpire this weekend across the region. Chilly high pressure looks to build from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast and then wedge down the eastern side of the mountains. However, at this point, it does not look like the air will be cold enough for anything wintry in the Carolinas.

In the CAD regions though, assuming the rain settles in Saturday into Sunday morning or so, temps will have a hard time climbing through the 40s.

Pattern change...

The pattern is definitely changing across North America. However, what does it mean for our region? Difficult to say.

Let me say that I see nothing 'warm' about the upcoming pattern, but I am just not entirely sure how 'cold' it will be.

A big ridge is going up near the west coast, and I expect it to stay there in some fashion right toward mid-month. However, the exact location of that ridge will go a long way toward determining how much cold air makes into down into our area.

As for winter weather, without a doubt February will provide the best chances we have had all winter. But that doesn't really say much considering the pattern this winter.

I need to see exactly how far east the ridge will try to develop into North America (as well as whether or not we will have some blocking form near Greenland) before I can get really bullish on the upcoming pattern.

>> Monday, January 30, 2012

Here is today's edition of the video. Lots of info in there....give it a look.

The weather over the next few days will be fantastic with highs in the 50s today, then 60s tomorrow and Wednesday. In fact, some spots could hit 70 Wednesday afternoon.

A storm system will bring at least some shower chance around Thursday, and then the specifics of the forecast thereafter get pretty murky.

Weekend...

Some modeling at times over the last several days had indicated a powerful cold air damming episode unfolding this weekend with the potential for ice and snow in parts of the region. This occurred as a potent (1036mb-1040mb) high pressure built into the Northeast as an area of low pressure moved out way from the Lower Mississippi Valley.

As of the morning model runs today, while there is still some evidence of CAD, it is not as pronounced as it was yesterday, and therefore, the models are advertising a mainly rain event at the moment.

At this point, I think the best we can do is just say stay tuned. If we do get a strong high pressure to build into the Northeast, some wintry weather would be possible in some spots this weekend. Weak or no high pressure = chilly rains.

Long-range....

The pattern as we head deeper into February looks to feature major west coast ridging and troughing in the eastern US. I like the looks of the longer range for decent odds of getting a winter weather threat or two into the region, but as you know, things can change.