Tuesday, May 24, 2011

2011 Proof Gold Buffalo Sales at 5,782

The initial sales figures are now available for the 2011 Proof American Gold Buffalo. Through May 22, 2011, sales of the one ounce 24 karat gold coins have reached 5,782.

This amount represents less than half the debut sales that were achieved for the 2010 Proof Gold Buffalo and less than a third of the debut sales for the 2009 Proof Gold Buffalo.

The latest figures for the Yellowstone Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coins are also available. Through May 22, sales had reached 24,626. This leaves only 2,374 coins remaining from the 27,000 mintage. The full weekly numismatic sales report can be viewed at Coin Update.

Essentially all of the US Mint's numismatic gold products have been experiencing much slower sales as compared to previous years. In other Mint News Blog posts or the weekly sales reports on CoinUpdate.com, I have discussed the slower sales for the gold commemorative coins, 2011 Proof Gold Eagles, and Eliza Johnson First Spouse Gold Coins.

Some collectors may be resisting the escalating pricing points, driven by the increased market price of gold. Others may have shifted attention and collecting dollars towards the America the Beautiful 5 Ounce Silver Coins. To some extent this may also be a reversion to the mean following the odd situation of the past few years, which included: 1.) low sales for 2008 precious metals products leading to high secondary market prices; 2.) cancellations or lengthy delays for 2009 products; and 3.) enthusiasm and pent up demand driving heavy sales for 2010 products.

I put together a summary of the 2009-2011 Proof Gold Buffalo data, including the sales start date, initial pricing, debut sales, sales end date, last price, and final mintage (or sales).

2009 Proof Gold Buffalo

Sales Start Date

October 29, 2009

Initial Price

$1,360.00

Debut Sales

19,468

Sales End Date

March 29, 2010

Last Price

$1,410.00

Final Mintage

49,306

2010 Proof Gold Buffalo

Sales Start Date

June 3, 2010

Initial Price

$1,510.00

Debut Sales

12,778

Sales End Date

May 10, 2011

Last Price

$1,810.00

Final Sales

49,374

2011 Proof Gold Buffalo

Sales Start Date

May 19, 2011

Initial Price

$1,760.00

Debut Sales

5,782

Sales End Date

?

Last Price

?

Final Sales

?

Numismatic Gold Coin Price Increase Possible

Based on recent gold prices, it seems that a price increase for numismatic gold coins may occur tomorrow. This would reverse the pricing decrease which took place on Wednesday of last week, bringing prices back to their highest levels.

The average London Fix Price of gold since last Thursday AM is already well into the $1,500 to $1,549.99 price range. At this point, the most likely factor that may prevent a price increase is the Wednesday PM London fix price. If this price is below $1,500, no price changes would take place. Under a secondary aspect of the US Mint's pricing policy, the Wednesday PM price must agree directionally with any change based on the average price calculated based on the prior Thursday AM to the current Wednesday AM.

Recently gold was trading at $1,524.60. In the past, the US Mint has implemented price increases at any point between mid-morning to slightly after 12:00 Noon ET.

I typically spend ~ 1.5K at the mint each year. My purchases have to include at least one copy of the proof and uncirc sets and the rest on various PM products. This personal budget has been in place since the mid '80's. So it's less and less for me since I intend to keep to my limit.

Does anyone else think the Mint is hurting themselves by coming out with the ATB coins so close together?

I don’t know about you but as a hobbyist with a job, it would be nice to get a few pay checks before having to dole out another $285. If the next one is released on June 7th and so on… I’m going to have a hard time keeping up with this one series. You can forget about anything else!

The Buffalo and 2011 W UNC Gold Eagle are tasty! I might sell some stuff to accumulate both. I think they will do well on the secondary market and make for nice investments. Plus they are attractive, classic designs.

" According to an inflation calculator, $1500 today is like about $720 in 1980 dollars, so you are actually spending half as much on coins today as you were in 1985! No wonder you are getting less. "

I purchased some great coins keeping to this limit - how about the 95-96 32-coin Olympics Centennial Set (3K over 2 years), the first year releases of all Proof AGEs, the Smithsonian 4-coin set, the Jackie Robinson 4-coin set, however no Pt's. I just was/am not interested in Pt coins.

I will keep buying the ATB as they come out even if they are "expensive" at $285. They are a far better investment than getting .2% on a money market fund with inflation plus the declining dollar. Notice that silver has stabilized at the mid -30's and might even be heading up.

I just bought some gold buffalos and some eagles as the price will be going higher tomorrow. I just wish that Pt price would fall below $1750 as the price adjustment on the Pt eagle is $100 vs. $50 on the gold 1 oz coins.

If gold doesn't pull back, the 2011 buffalo proof coin could be the best one since 2008. However, it will still likely sell enough copies (35,000-40,000) that it won't command a significant premium over melt.

I agree that this year's platinum proof coin will be a winner, despite the highest mintage to date in the "preamble" series. 15,000 isn't a huge number of coins though, and an attractive design like that should give it an advantage. However, the high price tag isn't attractive.

The 2011-W uncirculated $50 gold eagle just might get lost in the plethora of gold offerings this year, making it a surprise winner. With limited collector dollars being stretched over so many offerings, numbers for some items will have to be down from previous years. I pick this coin to be the one that loses the most sales due to this reality.

If you must choose only one, my pick for the one to buy from the list would also be the platinum proof coin. It seems to have the most potential of them all.

You didn't mention any First Spouse coins, but my pick for the lowest-mintage design (and the best "investment") for 2011 is Lucy Hayes. Her coin will be released at a time when prices are likely to be at an all-time high, and due to that sales by year-end will probably be small enough that the Mint will not strike too many more to sell in 2012. Those will run out way early before the one-year mark, and final numbers for the uncirculated coin could well fall below 2,500 coins.

I am really starting to think that the Mint is deliberately trying to squeeze out some of its customers or at the very least, they are pushing things to the limit. Starting on 04/21, with the four coin set of Proof Golds, the the AGE Unc.(5/5), First Spouse Proof & Unc.,(5/5); Buff Pr. (5/19), Plat. (5/17, est @ $2,200), and factoring in a 5 coin 5oz. ATB bullion set, and two numismatic 5 oz., they have presented about $12,368 in offerings within a little over a month's time. They do give you a breather though in the way of a 28 day break from the plat. to the Grant First Spouses! If you collect those, you'll have to come up with another $1,800 or so. Don't they have a better way of spreading things out?

"I would be curious to know how many of the buffalos and age uncs that the mint already produced."

I think they usually do at least 2 batches on the gold coins depending on demand and time of year releases. My guess would be 20-30,000 PF Buffs have been minted.That doesn't mean that they all will be sold, remember the 2008 PF Buff. I'd bet a few Mint insiders have got there own '08 Buff in a special place. These things really do happen and have happened in the past for sure.

Releasing all of these expensive collector coins in the span of roughly a month or so was a stupid plan. Somebody at the mint should have their head examined. It would have made much more sense to spread the release of these coins out over a 4-5 month period.

To: It would have made much more sense to spread the release of these coins out over a 4-5 month period.

Yes...and it would of made more sense if they had released the 2010 coins last year...the Mint is playing catch-up...they still have all 5 of the 2011 coins to release...to me, the Mint should of offered some of the 2010 coins as a set....maybe 10,000 of the 27, 000.

This is what I think mint should have done, release the 2010 ATB as a set in feb and the 2011 as set in say nov and with 2 per household limit and release the rest of the expensive coins event once every 2 months. I don't see why mint does not simplify things. I like mint because they have some of the most beautiful coins and I will be buying from them for ever/ till I can afford.

I too am like several other commenters. I can't get everything and right now I am trying to collect the 5 oz. ATB's.The buffalo is a nifty coin and so is the gold eagle. I bought the first yellow buffalo for 800 so the prices now are crazy to me. But if I was able I would probably still buy one. After all the 2011 5 oz prices are crazy considering the mint probably produced them out of 15 dollar/oz. sliver last year. Let's see now, 15 dollas an oz times 5 oz's equals 75 dollas plus 50 per cent markup equals 112.50 and I am paying 279.95. Well of course, that makes sense to me.

I know ! I had to abandon them and get a few liberty subsets and a couple of key coins(so far)Hang in there, First Spouse Series will one day get her due(I wouldn't have any if it weren't for Michael's advice--a known spouse collector)

From what I can see, values/pricesfor the Hot Spring P silver coin have been relatively stable, and perhaps trending downward. Prices now appear to be in the $350 = $390 range. Not much of a difference from the $279 sales price. Even less of a difference if you plan to sell the coin on eBay.

2011 is shaping up similar to 2008 with many Mint offerings and a whacky economy. May you have good intuition, patience, and a little luck(and "listen" to Michael very carefully)

May 24, 2011 8:45 PM

I agree with you. Take a look back at what really took off that year...the fractional gold buffalo, a series unique in design and size with limited mintage. Sounds a lot like the 5 ounce P ATB to me especially if they are discontinued after the 2010s.

It is still way too early to assess the future demand of the Mint's ATB "P" silver coins.

Will they be popular and increase in value? From sales prices on eBay, I am not so sure. Will they suffer the same fate as the First Spouse coins?

If you look at return on investment numbers, then there really are just a handful of recent "key" coins. I can think of a few, like the 2008 W gold buffalo, the 1995 W American silver eagle, and the 1999 silver proof set....

It looks like the pending price increase for gold coins has led to a "run" of sorts on the Mary Todd Lincoln uncirculated coin. It's showing a backorder status now. That makes it look like the Mint might almost be out of them already. If they are, that would be a highly unexpected scenario.

Based on the last sales report number, maybe the Mint only struck around 3,700-3,800 of the uncirculated coin.

This will be interesting to watch over the next few days to see what happens.

"The burnished uncirculated gold eagle is not the same composition as the bullion gold eagle. Composition: 91.67% Gold, 3.0% Silver, Balance Copper"

"american eagle burnished gold eagle and bullion gold eagle were the same composition but not the same finished. these two composition were not the same with american buffalo gold."

Someone (Michael?) please help!What is the truth: Same composition and different finishes or different compostions and same finishes or as one poster wrote: same compostion and finish but a little "w" on the burnished with a $200 premium!??

"Based on the last sales report number, maybe the Mint only struck around 3,700-3,800 of the uncirculated coin."(Lincoln)

Yes, probably true...For the 1st batch. Without a doubt this is the case in my opinion. It is very common for the Mint to make smaller batches and not full mintage limits, especially for the Spouse series. This happened with the Buchanan several months back.

Sensing the pending price increase, I pulled the trigger on the 2011 PR Buffalo early yesterday afternoon.

Even though we might see some more PM corrections over the course of this year, I have a feeling that the corrections will continue to move back and forth between the $1450 and $1550 thresholds. As others have observed, I also believe the conditions are right for another 2008-type, abrupt sell-out of this and some other 2011 PM issues. So, might as well get it now and have plenty of time to resolve quality issues, if that even becomes necessary.

However, I apologize to the board, the composition is in fact the same. This is why the bullion coins weigh 1.09 ounces, to account for the .9167 gold purity. This purity is the same for the uncirculated and bullion coins. Sorry!!! I can't speak to the finish as the Mint's site is somewhat vague.

@ 7:53 AM - Absolutely right. All AGE coins - bullion, PR and UNC - contain 1 troy ounce (31.1 gm) of gold. However, to make these coins more durable, the Mint added Silver and Copper to alloy and harden the coin.

At 22 carat, the 1 ounce of gold represents 91.67% of the coin's composition, while the total weight is increased to 33.93 grams, or 1.091 troy ounces.

As for finish, it used to be that the UNC AGE coins were struck onto "specially burnished blanks." Now that the Mint states "a finish similar to the AGE Bullion Coin," it's anybody's guess as to what the actual finish will be - and whether or not the "W" will, in fact, be the only distinguishing feature.

There is a fixed product limit for the gold eagle proofs (which is disclosed on each product page), but that does not necessarily mean mintage will be as high as the limits. It wasn't in 2010, and 2011 might be the same way.

Best option for one oz gold?Depends on your goals:the 1 oz unc may end up with the lowest circulation, and two gold spouses, 1 oz total (Mary unc and proof) may end up the best value. I personally like the proof gold ASE as the best option, but it is "common"; but who cares if you are buying it for yourself to enjoy.

What are your guys' thoughts about the couple military gold commemoratives? I have them and like them even though they're kind of small. Plus some of the money goes to a great cause. Do you see any secondary market premiums associated with them? With all the offerings, they might get lost in the shuffle. But on the other hand, if gold goes up and the pricing stays the same, more people might flock to them as the premium dwindles. Each are around 5k or so in sales.

Since no one has a crystal ball, it's impossible to answer that question with any degree of certainty. However, I think conditions are favorable for the 2011 coin to be the lowest mintage one since 2008, but not low enough to command a significant premium over bullion value.

There were probably quite a few of them sold over the past couple of days, by those wanting to beat today's price increase.

you can figure how much you gonna lose when buying current mint products.

May 25, 2011 12:50 PM

Unless you sell them to other collectors. Or, if you're like me and buy and hold. I'm 37 and collect the Buffalo proofs as well as other gold offerings. When I'm say, 70 years old, and go to retire, I think I'll get a tad more than trying to "figure how much you gonna lose when buying current mint products."

You should buy US Mint products because you enjoy them. If you buy the product and it loses value, at least you will still have a coin that you enjoy. And sentimental value is typically worth much more than the actual value of an item.

Since then, I have planned for and managed to purchase at least one example of each Buffalo coin and/or set issued so far. I had to make some tough product choices in 2008, and under conditions very similar to what we have in today's markets. Needless to say, the 2008 Buffalos were a wise, albeit extremely lucky, choice.

Like 1:34 PM, I'm thinking about the long-term goal. I don't flip, and only consider selling duplicates in support of new purchases or upgrades. Sure, there will be some risks along the way, but he who does not risk can not win!!

$1810 is insanity! I understand the pricing structure, it's just that it's sooooo much money for the average fella trying to collect.

If folks shell out that much cash, you better hope it maintains its value or does well on the secondary market due to low mintage. If not, why bother when it is no different than the past 5 years? I know we collect for enjoyment but it's not a one-off unique offering like the UHR which can diversify your collection.

I think anyone planning to buy any of the 2011 precious metal offerings from the US Mint is taking a chance. If one thinks the value of PMs will continue to go up, then you're speculative purchase is safe. But if you think there's any chance values will go down in the short or long term, then be ready to deal with a decline in values.

Since I am a collector, not an investor or flipper, I hold onto my purchases for a long time. Current prices for US Mint PM coins is too high and barely affordable And the chances for values to go down are not worth the risk to me. These factors make me shy away from any purchases at current prices.

This one will have to sell less than 18,000 to be considered better than the 2008 on the secondary market. Highly unlikely and a big gamble for those that shell out over $1800 to purchase it first and foremost as an investment or to flip.

Heck, I bought my first UHR Double Eagle for S 1198.00. Golds is up 600.00 oz. and its probally worth around $2500.00. Therefore, the plat ozer should be worth about $3000.00 in about four years. Put me in for the personal limit. Its like taken candy from a baby.