Fantasy Basketball: Forwards - the sleepers and busts

By FRANK STAMPFL

|ROTOEXPERTS|

Oct 21, 2016 | 12:00 PM

Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker (Darren Hauck/AP)

How can a former second overall pick and a player with a 71.3 ADP possibly be a sleeper? Many analysts have different definitions for the term "sleeper," but to me it's a player that can provide much higher value than their draft position. That's the case of Jabari Parker this season who has Top-50 potential in both eight and nine category formats. As Parker was returning from a torn ACL last season, there was some hesitancy both in his game and from Fantasy owners who didn't know whether to trust his health or not.

In the first half of the season, he put up rather pedestrian numbers, averaging 11.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.4 assists in 28.9 minutes per game. In the second half, however, the entire Bucks unit clicked from an offensive standpoint, led by Parker, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. In 28 second half games, Parker averaged 18.9 points on 49.8-percent shooting with 6.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.1 steals in 36.5 minutes per game. His usage also jumped from 18.6-percent to 23.9-percent. Another reason to expect Parker to build on those second-half numbers is that Middleton is going to miss nearly the entire season with a torn hamstring. The Bucks will need to replace Middleton's 18.8 points and 4.6 assists, his average post All-Star break. Parker helps in points, rebounds, field-goal percentage, doesn't turn the ball over and is average at free-throw efficiency and steals, so he doesn't hurt owners there. With Middleton out, Parker could see his assists jump a little as well. He's the 21st forward off the board but could finish Top-15 at his position.

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Welcome to the new-look Miami Heat. The "big three" is no more. In fact, all three of that triumvirate are now gone. LeBron James left years ago for the Cavaliers, Dwyane Wade has departed for the Chicago Bulls and, unfortunately, Chris Bosh's health will keep him from playing for the foreseeable future. Specifically, from last year's team, the Heat need to replace Wade's 31.6-percent usage rate and Bosh's 24.7-percent mark. Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside will take their steps forward but right there with them will be Justise Winslow. The 2015 10th overall pick is a favorite of Pat Riley and this coaching staff, and they will give him every opportunity to develop this season.

Winslow's rookie year could be described as inconsistent but that could be said for many rookies, and his playing time was up and down. He can shoot 3's, grab boards, and although it hasn't translated to his NBA game yet, provide the defensive statistics. Winslow's percentages are iffy but in head-to-head formats, owners can easily punt those categories. In rotisserie leagues, it will be a tougher pill to swallow. All in all, Winslow's opportunity makes him a prime candidate for a second-year leap. Also, any man willing to partake in the "Running Man" challenge is okay by me.

Opportunity is the theme for today's sleepers and there is a ton of that in Brooklyn with the Nets this season. Because this roster is so devoid of talent, a few select players will be asked to play more than they should, including Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Now, RHJ is not a household name and will certainly not average 20 points per game, but he's an excellent Fantasy asset because he puts up the gritty statistics that are hard to come by. He's a player you can pair with a superstar that scores a ton of points, provides good percentages but doesn't necessarily get a lot of steals or blocks. A few names that come to mind are Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. Those two are Fantasy superstars but they don't help much in the defensive statistics.

Playing in just 19.7 minutes per game in the second half of the season, Hollis-Jefferson provided 0.8 blocks and 1.2 steals. Now he's expected to start and could see 30-plus minutes per night, meaning he could easily average 1.5 in both of those categories. Just TWO players averaged 1.5 or more steals AND blocks per game last season: Paul Millsap and Nerlens Noel. Hollis-Jefferson might not even average 10 points a night but at his average draft position, you shouldn't necessarily be looking for big scorers. He doesn't hurt shooting percentages either, as he does most of his scoring in the paint. He was a 70-percent free-throw shooter in college as well, which won't hurt in rotisserie formats. Remember Hollis-Jefferson's name later on in drafts when you need to grab those defensive categories.

After a few down seasons, Marvin Williams finally returned to form, contributing across the board for the Charlotte Hornets while having arguably his most efficient season. He provided his best field-goal percentage since the 2010-11 season with a 45.2-percent mark, the second-best free-throw percentage of his career at 83.3-percent and the best 3-point percentage he's ever posted at 40.2-percent. So while he provides very solid percentages, he also contributes decent points and rebounds at 11.7 and 6.4, respectively.

What Fantasy owners should love most about his game is the consistent defensive help he chips in. Playing mostly power forward last season, Williams had the opportunity to defend the rim a tad more, which led to career-high 1.0 blocks per game. In 28 second-half games, he also provided 1.0 steals per game. Really the only category he doesn't help much in is assists but owners shouldn't expect that from their power forward anyway. Williams isn't a sexy name to draft but he's one of the better complementary forwards who helps across the board in both eight and nine category leagues.

Deeper Sleeper: People are still waiting for Terrence Jones to break out and perhaps he can work towards that goal with a fresh start in New Orleans. If he can earn 25 minutes per game, he could approach double-doubles on a nightly basis with a solid field-goal percentage. The really intriguing part of his game is the blocks, as he's averaged 1.2 over his four-year NBA career. He already has a season with 1.8 blocks per game under his belt, so if he can return to that form he will be a steal at his current ADP. Don't forget he's backing up Anthony Davis who's yet to play more than 68 games in a season.

Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin (r.) (Rich Pedroncelli/AP)

BUSTS

I give Blake Griffin all the credit in the world for improving his game from an offensive standpoint, forcing defenders to respect his jump shot and improving his free-throw percentage for four straight seasons. The problems, however, have been injuries and a decline in defensive statistics. Over the past two seasons, Griffin has missed 62 games due to injuries both on and off the court. While last season could have been avoided (instead of breaking his hand punching an equipment manager), it's still a trend Fantasy owners don't want to see.

As for the decline in defensive statistics and rebounds, that's also partially not his fault. DeAndre Jordan is a savage on the boards, averaging at least 13.6 rebounds per game for three straight seasons. Because of this, there aren't as many rebounds available for Griffin to snag. The same can be said for blocks, as Jordan is known as one of the best rim protectors in the game. With that said, Griffin's steals have dropped for three consecutive seasons and he can't blame anybody else. Griffin does a lot right (when he plays) and that can't be taken away from him, but his lack of defensive statistics and injury trends are too much to swallow in the second or third rounds of your draft. Owners can look at more across the board production from players such as Paul Millsap, Al Horford, Draymond Green and Kristaps Porzingis instead.

The fact that Kevin Love is still going in the third round or fourth round of drafts is absolutely perplexing. It's not a knock on Love because he is a talented player, but he just doesn't fit in Cleveland and Fantasy owners are still latching onto the potential of his Timberwolves days. Since joining the Cavaliers, Love has decreased in nearly every statistical category, except turnovers because he doesn't handle the ball as much anymore. He shot just 41.9-percent last year, which is unacceptable from the power forward position in Fantasy Basketball. Sure, the 2.1 3-pointers per game are stellar for the position but it's cancelled out but how much he drags down your field-goal percentage, especially in rotisserie formats.

I haven't even mentioned the defensive statistics and if I'm going to bash Blake Griffin for his lack of production on that end of the court, I must do the same for Love. It's not even like you can expect them to rise either, as Love has NEVER averaged 1.0 steals or blocks per game in any season he's played. Don't think I've forgotten about the NBA finals either, when Love averaged 8.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. In the lone game in which he didn't play in the finals, the Cavs blew the Warriors out by 30 points! He isn't a good fit for the Cavs and certainly isn't a good fit for your Fantasy teams either. If you want a power forward that provides points, 3-pointers, and even better free-throw percentage, just draft Ryan Anderson 3-4 rounds later. They're virtually the same player!