Deaths of Dealey Plaza JFK Witnesses: A Probability Analysis

The 1977 House Select Committee on Assassination (HSCA) claimed that the London Sunday Times actuary’s probability calculation of 18 material witnesses deaths (13 unnatural) in the three years following the assassination (1 in 100,000 trillion) was invalid. The HSCA claimed that it was impossible to calculate the probability because the witness universe was unknown. This canard was essential to the cover-up. No one did the math until I confirmed the actuary’s calculation in 2003

But there were many definable witness groups. Consider the 24 unnatural deaths of the 692 estimated Dealey Plaza witnesses. The probability of 24 unnatural deaths during the period 1963-1978 is

P= poisson(24, 2.56, false) = 8.08E-16= 1 in 1200 trillion.

Sixteen Dealey Plaza witnesses testified at the Warren Commission, 3 were sought to testify at the Garrison trial, 3 at the Church Senate hearings and 3 at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA).

JFK witness unnatural death probabilities have been posted for the following groups: Warren Commission, London Times actuary, Garrison/ Shaw trial, Church Senate Hearings, HSCA, Simkin Educational Forum, JFK-related 1400+ witness “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”.