UPDATE 2: Gingrich's speech was too much about himself. It seemed vain and wound-licking. Santorum conveyed real passion. I think he reaches into the hearts of the people who experience life as a moral trial. When he said our rights come not from government, but — as it says in the Declaration of Independence — from our Creator, it got a big cheer. That's something Americans really feel, and Santorum is that America. Mitt Romney did a nice job of looking lovingly at his wife Ann, as she ticked off a long list of people to thank. Romney then recited his speech, staying on-task, talking about the economy, pushing emphasis into his voice at the places where emotion belonged. He keeps up his smile, he seems to be a good man. Giving speeches is not his thing, but he's got to do it and he's committed to it.

UPDATE 3: Santorum has now won 3: Oklahoma, Tennessee, and North Dakota. 3 too for Romney: Virginia, Vermont, and Massachusetts.

UPDATE 4: CNN is explaining why Romney is going to pull ahead in Ohio. The later reporting counties — like Cleveland's — are big by population and strongly favor Romney.

UPDATE 5: Chris Wallace on Fox News says: "The biggest state that Romney won tonight is Georgia, because it allows Newt Gingrich to stay in the race and splits the anti-Romney vote."

UPDATE 6, at 10:15 Central Time: CNN hasn't called Ohio, but it seems to me that they've given out the answer: Romney will win, since the rural counties are all reported and the rest of the vote is coming from the more densely populated areas where Romney is strong. In fact, John King just said, "When you look at this map tonight, it is very hard — very hard, I would say, it's impossible, looking at the places that are still out now in the vote count tonight — for me to see a path for Senator Santorum to come back... I can't find a mathematical path for Senator Santorum to get back."

122 comments:

Aside from the market blowing about 200 points, it's gonna be a slow news day until the returns start coming in, so Ann put up a rant about Stacy McCain that kept everybody busy.

Now we get to the real issue.

Santorum has already lost OH in terms of delegates; if he gets creamed in the popular vote (and that seems to be the trend), he's toast. Newt will take GA, but will he be able to make any headway in TN and OK? If not, he's toast.

And, yes, Milton has very adroitly avoided being Flucked by the media and the question is:

I've got dinner plans so I can't be around to laugh abouta) Mittens being the best candidate that the Republicans can musterb) the absurdly large number of Republicans that take frothy seriously and how embarrassing this is for the partyc) the coordination problem involved in working for a brokered convention or accepting Romneybot as the nominee d) how evangelicals are bigoted against Romney for being a Mormon and the trouble this will cause for the Republican partye) everything else about this circus of a primary process

I agree Mitt is pretty weak, but lucky for him he is running against Obama. Bill Clinton had the good fortune to have Ross Perot run as a third-party candidate in 1992 and Romney has the good fortune of running against Obama. You can't blame Romney that his competition is weak. If the Repubs and Dems had fielded better candidates, then Romney would not win. But unless the Dems have a brokered convention and nominate Mark Warner or Phil Bredesen, they are toast.

I like what Romney says here -- enough with the crooks and incompetents. Let us get down to the business of running the country.

Gov. ROMNEY: Well, my message is I'm not going to say outrageous things about the president or about my opponents. It gets headlines and a lot of excitement, and it gets you, by the way, a number of days in the polls to get a nice little bump. But I'm going to talk about the real issues Americans face and talk with respect about people who have differing views. I'm not going to attack them personally. I mean, I know that's fun, but it's just not productive. And we need, as a nation, to come together to recognize that even though we have differing views about the country and about where we should go, we all love the country. And I recognize that among Democrats and among Republicans. I want to lead the country. I don't want to castigate half of Americans. I want to bring us together and finally get the job done of having a stronger economy with a--with a government that's been kept in the—in the--into the box it ought to be kept into.

Without a 3rd party run from somebody on the right, GodZero is going to have a very rum go - without the Hopenchange and saddled with a swooning economy and several possible foreign policy disasters, he's not that great a candidate himself.

As I've said before, I can't help wondering if Milton thinks much about how, if he can make a success of his Administration, it would help the cause of Mormonism and that gives him a motivation we can't appreciate.

PS Your wife has a very comely sway to her walk, Mr Meade. I hope you accepted her invite to neck on the bench before supper.

PPS Am I the only one that started thinking, on hearing Willie was going to "help" Zero on the campaign trail, if Barry hears the main title from "Jaws", it's not just his imagination.

No one wants to see Obama lose more than Bill Clinton. I, for one, can't wait for him to help Obama. Clinton's comments on how Obama should greenlight the Keystone Pipeline the other day were the first of his many 2012 assists to Obama.

No one wants to see Obama lose more than Bill Clinton. I, for one, can't wait for him to help Obama. Clinton's comments on how Obama should greenlight the Keystone Pipeline the other day were the first of his many 2012 assists to Obama.

I actually am coming around to think Mitt knows what he is doing (read my previous comment on what he said). I don't think it is necessary to go after Obama like Newt does. I think people are waiting for someone take governing seriously (now if we can only beat some sense into Santorum's supporters)..

We took the stark button-down black-and-white world we were born into and Kodachromed it, tie-dyed it, made it a rainbow of races and genders and candy-colored Spandex bike shorts. You think our force lay in numbers, but you’re wrong. It lay in the vision we had. You can’t comprehend that, because you’re [Gen X] so low-key, so small-scale, so It’s about intimacy. No. It’s not. Thomas Jefferson had it right: It’s about happiness. If you’ve ever had an honest conversation with your mom or dad, you have us to thank for it. If you get time off from work to take care of a new baby or a sick relative, you’re welcome for that. Getting a tax rebate for making your house more energy-efficient? Bike lanes, pocket parks, hate-crime laws, legalized pot, death-penalty moratoriums, organic food, space telescopes, genome-decoding — don’t you see what we were doing? We were taking the American dream to the max, pushing to its limits the pursuit of freaking happiness.

I just went to the polls here in Ohio a couple of hours ago. I cannot believe that in the last three votes I've cast for president, I've voted for Hillary (primaries, when Ohio meant nothing for the Republicans), McCain, and now...

Mitt Fucking Romney.

How did I end up in this place? This is like a bad dream from which I can't awaken.

In other words, you're like a Mormon bride. About 17 year's old. And, "promised." You're a virgin. And, you wear funny underwear. You're marrying a boy back from his "mission." And, since you're glad you're getting married, you don't take too kindly to people who tell you "you should wait." And, you shouldn't be jumping into a cult.

Now, no matter how many Mormons you know, you have some clue, more or less, that Mitt's not that popular.

But you remember Bob Dole. You remember McCain. And, for some reason you really believe "this time will be different."

Pasta, know what you're saying, but it took 6 years before the Republican Party could field Abraham Lincoln. The Tea Party has a way to go, but they're doing it gound up, which I think is the right way.

The genuine smile and wink from Barack Obama at the press conference today when he wished Romney well tonight was interesting.

I suppose that the eternal campaigner is thrilled at the idea of soon unleashing his carefully planned class warfare waves against wealthy Mitt, the Koch Brothers, the GOP's new role model named Limbaugh.

I read somewhere that all of the champagne in DC was gone from the Dems celebrating the past week's events.

I have not been in Mitt's camp, but I think he could be a great President. The next great President can't be a liberal, there is no money left to buy that legacy.

The only remaining avenue to greatness is powerful change toward liberty and making the U.S. an economic attraction like it once was. Right now it's about as attractive to business as Mexico is to a sorority looking for a spring break destination.

I think people like Althouse are looking at him the way moderates did G. W. when he won his first term - as some kind of middle of the road-er who will not do anything drastic. Unfortunately there isn't even enough money to pay for that. That will be stagflation.

The only hope is strong employment and growth combined with substantial cuts and limiting of government. I don't really think Mitt has what it takes in his gut for that, but I hope I'm wrong.

He can win the election either way: playing it safe or going for great, but I've always been more concerned about what happens after the election. Greatness or failure are the only options for the next President.

The genuine smile and wink from Barack Obama at the press conference today when he wished Romney well tonight was interesting.

Such behavior, isn't that beneath an incumbent president? Someone has to ask, indeed.

I don't think so at all. What could be wrong with that? "A genuine smile and wink." How paranoid do you want to be, how critical of someone's every move? It was a great gesture, IMO. A little gamesmanship? Who knows other than Obama?

As I've said before, it doesn't matter how weak Mitt is in the primary. The Republicans are gonna vote for him in the general.

Weakness with the right block is a feature, not a bug for the general. Obama is proof that even in a center-right country, leftism just isn't as scary to independents as is the right. Considering history, and the nature of the primary problems in the world right now, that's completely backwards, but it may work for Mitt anyway.

He is a punk alright. He can't compete on merit. I am tired of his antics and warming up to the seriousness Romney might bring to this race. Just run the country already. We don't want any bells and whistles this time. Just a smart guy with some reasonably good ideas. Don't bring religion into it either. This country was built on the idea of separation of church and state.

Obama is proof that even in a center-right country, leftism just isn't as scary to independents as is the right.

For many independents it's not the politics as much as the right-wing people themselves that are scary. I know there's scary left-wingers too, but the right seems to win that category on the measure tape. IMO YMMV.

Conservatives don't hope - they act. They work, they argue, they present real plans, they work more, they earn.

A conservative doesn't win because he's got the right skin, or a nice pant's crease or would make a good boyfriend, or because he appeals to other hopers. He has to convince, show, perform, and appeal to people who say: "show me".

It's harder for him to get the job, but the employer with tougher requirements gets better people.

Yes, Santorum won Tennessee. But what does it mean that there were not 14 delegates (we got to vote for 14 delegates) for Santorum on the second page of the ballot? I voted for 14 Romney delegates to go along with my vote for Romney. I don't think there were 6 delegates committed to Santorum on the ballot. Will that have any consequences?

Hillary likeable? Put down that bong! And as I remember, the Donks were not particularly united during that little knife fight. The fact is that primary battles always play out this way. Lots of back-biting and screaming at shadows during the process, and then down to business once it's decided.. Mitt isn't being bruised, he's being honed.

Yes, Santorum won Tennessee. But what does it mean that there were not 14 delegates (we got to vote for 14 delegates) for Santorum on the second page of the ballot? I voted for 14 Romney delegates to go along with my vote for Romney. I don't think there were 6 delegates committed to Santorum on the ballot. Will that have any consequences?

The name of the game is delegates, not votes. Hillary had a similar problem last time.

phx said...

Obama is proof that even in a center-right country, leftism just isn't as scary to independents as is the right.

Lessee, 8% inflation, work force participation under 60%, real unemployemnt at least 19%, the crazies in Iran about to be handed the bomb unless Bibi bitch slaps Zero for real, leading economic indicators going down.

No, nothing scary about Leftism there.

That's why Zero's losing independents and just about every other group - including blacks.

"For many independents it's not the politics as much as the right-wing people themselves that are scary"

Agreed, but it's still mostly made up stuff where even a mildly religious person is seen as part of the inquisition, or any liberal is a communist.

My point is that independents should be more scared of the left whether they fall for the exaggeration or not, because either way, the left is much more successful at radically changing things, and that change is always more damaging than anything that even the worst right winger gets away with.

That's my point: they don't pick a nominee just because of his skin, he has to be bringing something else. But the Dems are fine with pure appearances. That's why they accept pure affirmative action hires at every level.

Romney vs Obama is a perfect example. One has been highly successful at varied leadership positions his whole life, and the other has failed at every one, except getting elected.

The right would never nominate someone like Obama: a non-performer with some optic that's appealing. That's a liberal thing.

"Agreed, but it's still mostly made up stuff where even a mildly religious person is seen as part of the inquisition, or any liberal is a communist."

"Bagoh20 is school. Accept no substitutes."

True that, but the other half of my point is that while the inquisition is long gone, there are still communists and they are always much much worse, so why the crazy fear of the inquisition. Insert Monte Python clip here.

Even though I strongly disagree with Santorum's social conservatism, he doesn't scare me as much as even a center left President, because I know social conservatism will never go far in 2012, and even if it did, that stuff is quickly reversible with the next election if the voters want, But, even mild liberal policies tend to add and enshrine entitlements, and that in a nutshell is the entire western world's current and very serious problem. So it should be an easy decision for anyone who is not strongly ideologically left. It's just simple math and common sense.

"I do like it when you sit on that bench in your front yard and look to Meade to join you."

Yea, that's a great new feature on those 2012 Stepford Althouse units. The had to sacrifice the self-feeding module to fit in the new sporty and fun manual transmission, and they wisely didn't sacrifice performance by adding the planned gardening software. All in all, it seems the customers who have taken delivery are quite satisfied. I think there is just one so far. There are safety concerns, that have hurt sales. They suddenly pull to the left without warning.

bagoh you have grace, you have intelligence, you have a great self-deprecating sense of humor - grace - but you have a big, big blind spot. You so believe that everyone should be like you, you seem to actually believe that they are. I mean it with respect and sincerity, and perhaps I am wrong.

I'm not highly educated or well read, so I do expect most people to be at least as able to see things clearly. I don't think it's hard stuff to grasp. I have very strong ideological passions too, but they have to fit the facts or be abandoned. Maybe that has little to do with education or even intelligence. I hope so for the good of democracy everywhere.

"Santorum kept the race close in Ohio by doing exceptionally well among socially conservative voters. Four-in-ten Republican primary voters in the state identified themselves as very conservative on issues such as gay marriage and abortion. These social conservative voters strongly preferred Santorum to Romney 53 percent to 25 percent.

Evangelical Protestants, not Catholics, was the religious group most supportive of Santorum. Evangelical Protestants preferred Santorum over Romney 49 percent to 29 percent. Santorum, though, was defeating among those who shared his faith, losing the Catholic vote to Romney 44 percent to 31 percent."

Funny but not surprising that Romney did significantly better than Santorum among Catholics even though Santorum is Catholic and Romney is not.

As has been the case all year long, the Evangelicals continue to favor anybody but Mormon Romney.

I'm also coming around to the idea of Mitt getting the nomination. He will lose to Obama, since he essentially stands for the same thing. Obama's plan to wreak the economy will continue, and then we will elect a real in conservative 2016.

Dante said..."I'm also coming around to the idea of Mitt getting the nomination. He will lose to Obama, since he essentially stands for the same thing. Obama's plan to wreak the economy will continue, and then we will elect a real in conservative 2016."

Mitt will be a radically different president that Obama. For example, Mitt will nominate supreme court justices who are constitutionalists and abhor judicial activism. He will try to reduce the size of fed government while at the same make it perform more efficiently. He will veto dnc crafted laws and sign GOP passed laws. He will listen very carefully to the GOP because he knows that he is in deeep trouble if he loses the GOP.

To say that Mitt is the same as Obama and will govern like Obama is absurd and completely out of touch with reality. It is something a dem troll would say to suppress enthusiasm for the GOP nominee.

BTW, the USA is not going to election a social conservative any time soon so there is no point in the GOP nominating a social conservative. The Santorum prez campaign is a waste of time and money. What social conservatives should demand from the GOP is that it will defend the constitution. Social conservative issues like gay marriage, abortion, etc. should be decided at the state level not the federal level.