ATS Records – Preseason AP Poll

byJohn Ewing

The Associated Press released its preseason Top 25 college football poll on Sunday. Alabama, the defending national champion, will begin the season as the No. 1 team in the country. Behind the Tide are No. 2 Clemson, No. 3 Oklahoma, No. 4 Florida State and No. 5 LSU.

These are five of the top programs from college football’s Power 5 conferences. Combined, the teams have implied odds of 55.3% to win the College Football Playoff. No one doubts the talent but what can we expect from a betting perspective with these squads?

No. 1 Teams

Since 2005, the No. 1 team in the Preseason AP Poll has gone 9-2 ATS in Week 1.

The good times don’t last. In that same time frame, only 3 preseason No. 1 teams have finished the year with a winning ATS record.

Roll Tide

Alabama is ranked in the preseason top five for an eighth straight year. In the previous seven seasons, Bama went 6-1 against-the-spread in Week 1 and finished the year with a winning ATS record five times.

When the Tide started the season No. 1 in 2010 and 2013, Nick Saban’s group finished the year with a winning ATS record (14-10, +3.5 units).

Top 5 Teams

Since 2005, teams ranked in the preseason top five have gone 29-26 ATS in Week 1. However, in the last five years those teams have gone 10-15 ATS in Week 1.

Only 38% (21 of 55) of preseason top five teams finish the year with a winning ATS record.

Week 1 ATS Betting

Alabama (-10.5) vs. USC: 69% of tickets on Bama, 53% of money on USC

Clemson (-7) at Auburn: 71% of bets on Clemson, 54% of money on Auburn