This Just In: More Upgrades and Downgrades

At The Motley Fool, we poke plenty of fun at Wall Street analysts and their endless cycle of upgrades, downgrades, and "initiating coverage at neutral." While the pinstripe-and-wingtip crowd is entitled to its opinions, we've got some pretty sharp stock pickers down here on Main Street, too. (And we're not always impressed with how Wall Street does its job.)

Given this, perhaps we shouldn't be giving virtual ink to "news" of analyst upgrades and downgrades. And we wouldn't -- if that were all we were doing. Fortunately, in "This Just In," we don't simply tell you what the analysts said. We also show you whether they know what they're talking about.

Time to believe in (Bank of) America?Think the financial crisis is over? Have you been looking for your excuse to reenter the market, and maybe pick up a few shares of Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) ? If so, today's your lucky day -- because ace analyst Stifel Nicolaus just gave you not one, not two, but three separate reasons to buy B of A.

Reason No. 1: Earnings growthAccording to Stifel, the primary reason to buy Bank of America today is that its earnings "trajectory" looks better than those of its peers over the next couple years. StreetInsider.com, which covered the upgrade, says Stifel has B of A pegged for 30% annualized earnings growth in 2014, versus only 5% "for the rest of the large cap bank universe."

This prediction is something of a departure from the usual view on Wall Street, at least regarding longer-term growth trends. Whereas most analysts see B of A posting 7.8% earnings growth through 2017, that's right in line with the 7.8% growth estimate at Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) , not significantly greater than the 6.9% rate posited for JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) , and quite a bit slower than the 9.2% estimate for US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) and the 12% growth rate assigned to Citigroup (NYSE: C) .

What's got Stifel so optimistic about B of A busting the curve, though, and outgrowing even the fastest of its peers? Mainly it's a problem with those peers: "We believe that without the declining expense base lever that BAC possesses, many banks are likely to post stagnant/modest EPS growth over the next two years as net interest margin pressures continue and loan loss provisioning inflects," says Stifel. Whereas the analyst thinks many of B of A's rivals have "bled the loan loss reserves dry, have little exposure to mortgage origination and debt underwriting in the low interest rate environment, and have no material expense reductions on the horizon," Stifel sees B of A as able to use all of these trends to reduce its costs and grow its revenues.

Reason No. 2: A better balance sheetStifel also likes what it sees in B of A's balance sheet, where "Basel III Tier 1 common capital ratio [is estimated at] 9% in Q4," and "the company has rebuilt its capital ratios much faster than expected."

And these aren't just pretty numbers. To the contrary -- they lead directly to...

Reason No. 3: Bigger dividendsAs you may have heard, the Federal Reserve is getting ready to launch its latest round of stress testing on America's banks. On the results of this test hinge bankers' ability to issue and raise their dividend payouts.

And so it is that Bank of America's improved capital ratio -- by boosting its chances of passing next year's test -- may directly benefit shareholders in two ways: First, by directly increasing the monetary reward for those who already own the stock. Second, by making B of A look more attractive to other dividend-seekinginvestors, potentially increasing buying activity and boosting the stock's actual share price.

Foolish final thoughtDoes all this sound like a good "buy thesis" for Bank of America? Investors seem to think so, as they bid up B of A shares 4% today on the news. But before you follow their lead, here are a couple other factoids to keep in mind.

While it's true that Stifel has done better with some "banking" stocks, specifically in the thrifts and mortgage finance arena (61% accuracy), on balance, I find enough mistakes in Stifel's past to suggest investors take today's bullish prognosis on Bank of America with a few grains of salt. If Stifel is right and B of A outgrows its rivals over the next couple of years -- well and good. If it doesn't, though, and if Stifel's peer analysts turn out to be right about the bank's long-term growth rate, then I have to say that B of A at 25 times earnings, and sub-8% growth, still doesn't look like a great bet to me.

Caveat emptor, investor.

Fool contributor Rich Smith does not own, nor is he short, any company named above. You can find him on CAPS, publicly pontificating under the handle TMFDitty, where he's currently ranked No. 273 out of more than 180,000 members.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment icon found on every comment.