Saturday, September 7, 2013

S&P 500 Futures weekend analysis

Technically, the S&P 500 has been above 200 days moving average since November 2012, this is a incredible bull run, at some point the S&P will test that level again and I think it will happen sooner rather than later.

The S&P 500 broke 50 days SMA couple days ago and since then we are very struggle to closed above that level, that tells you the price action is weak. The catalyst for the S&P will no doubt be the Fed meeting later this months. Will the Fed taper or not? My sense is Fed will reduced QE by 10B, the jobs number we got on Friday wasn't bad enough to stop Fed tapering.

The other things I want to mention is the 10 Year Treasury Yield broke 3% this week, once the bond market started to sell off, equity market suffered. Just think about 1994 when Fed hiked interest rate unexpectedly. 1997 Russia default on their debt. Also, WTI and Brent crude price are sitting at uncomfortable level, the last thing we want is higher oil prices