Just trying to get a gauge of what everyone's expectations are here. They seem pretty high...we need a lot out of him. Idk how effective he will be his first few seasons though. it's really hard to say.

With how much support and encouragement he's going to get here I'd say he averages about 8 points per game.

AustinWind

07-01-2010, 12:52 PM

During summer league or regular season?
Summer League - 12-14
Regular Season - 8-10

OakMoses

07-01-2010, 01:23 PM

It really depends on a lot of factors. If he gets 20 mpg, then I'd guess he'll average around 7-8 ppg.

Putnam

07-01-2010, 01:47 PM

Do you mean "over the course of this first season?" Or "over his career?" Or "from the start?"

IUfan4life

07-01-2010, 01:49 PM

it's too early to tell. Depending on him getting a "fair" amount of minutes and playing the 2 I think 13+ a game would be pretty easy to achieve

Mr_Smith

07-01-2010, 01:55 PM

I think it depends on minutes played and how they use him. I see 10-12 max

pacers_heath

07-01-2010, 02:22 PM

Do you mean "over the course of this first season?" Or "over his career?" Or "from the start?"

rookie year reg season

Sparhawk

07-01-2010, 02:25 PM

Too many factors right now. This might be more easily answered just before the start of the season. Let's see how he performs in Summer League, and let's see how the roster fills out.

Ozwalt72

07-01-2010, 02:31 PM

If he gets 15 mpg, I think he can pump out 7 to 9 ppg....depending on his aggressiveness to score and our PG situation.

Of course we'll know more closer to the season....I really have no idea.

Anthem

07-01-2010, 02:36 PM

If he averages above 10ppg for his rookie year and gives you passable defense then that's a win. Obviously you'd like more as time goes on but we shouldn't expect too much from the start... especially given how stacked we are on the wing.

maragin

07-01-2010, 02:39 PM

I expect the number to start low and get higher as the season progresses.

I would not be surprised if Lance Stephenson leads our summer league team in scoring.

Ozwalt72

07-01-2010, 02:40 PM

Of course Danny's rookie year was 22.6 mpg with 7.5 points and 4.9 rebounds but he wasn't looked at as one of the scorers on that team.

Those rebound numbers were nice. He followed it up with less rebounds in more minutes the year after.

Anyway, George could be ANYWHERE # wise this year.

hans023

07-01-2010, 02:41 PM

If he averages above 10ppg for his rookie year and gives you passable defense then that's a win. Obviously you'd like more as time goes on but we shouldn't expect too much from the start... especially given how stacked we are on the wing.

Nicely put Anthem I was thinking the same thing.

BringJackBack

07-01-2010, 02:41 PM

Well first of all, I don't expect George to get consistent minutes, because no one really does on this team besides Danny Granger and Troy Murphy. So I'm going to assume that he averages around 20 minutes for the first 40 games of the season or so, get 5 minutes and DNPs for a 10-15 game stretch, then finish strong and possibly start.

With that said, I think that his points per 36 minutes stat will be pretty respectable in his rookie season, but his points per game will probably suffer due to our depth and Jim won't really have a rotation set until the end of the year.

I really hope that we actually run plays for him, like PnR's, post up small 2's, set his own picks, and even go iso or whatever. I really hope that he isn't just a spot up 3 point shooter. So I'm going to go with 8.5 points per game in his rookie season.

pizza guy

07-01-2010, 02:44 PM

at least 25 ppg

I just hope he either wins the starting job or pushes Rush enough to be better.

--pizza

maragin

07-01-2010, 03:02 PM

I'm just as interested in how many mpg he gets.

pacers_heath

07-01-2010, 03:24 PM

Of course Danny's rookie year was 22.6 mpg with 7.5 points and 4.9 rebounds but he wasn't looked at as one of the scorers on that team.

Those rebound numbers were nice. He followed it up with less rebounds in more minutes the year after.

Anyway, George could be ANYWHERE # wise this year.

yeah but he had to compete with ron artest, stephen jackson, and al harrington for minutes

Grangerous

07-01-2010, 03:29 PM

1st year 7.3
2nd year 12.9
3rd year 18.2
4th year 23.8

2nd players in nba to improve average in first 4 years in nba of course first is the Batman Granger! :D:D

count55

07-01-2010, 03:37 PM

yeah but he had to compete with ron artest, stephen jackson, and al harrington for minutes

Artest only played 16 games, and Al Harrington wasn't even on the team.

Unclebuck

07-01-2010, 03:55 PM

The last thing I care about is how many point George scores. In fact I could list 10 different stats I care more about then points scored. Stats like minutes played, FG%, FG attempts, FT attempts, deflections, rebounds.

ksuttonjr76

07-01-2010, 04:23 PM

I'm just as interested in how many mpg he gets.

That's what I'm more curious about!

I Love P

07-01-2010, 04:28 PM

Hopefully he gets to play in the Rookie Sophmore game at All-Star weekend.

pacers_heath

07-01-2010, 04:33 PM

Artest only played 16 games, and Al Harrington wasn't even on the team.

what's your point :blush:

naw what i meant was the team actually was competitive that year and didn't have as much time to spend developing rookies as they will this year

Putnam

07-01-2010, 05:16 PM

2nd players in nba to improve average in first 4 years in nba of course first is the Batman Granger!

again can that you say

.

Kemo

07-01-2010, 06:11 PM

I think it all depends on how short his leash will be this year..
If he gets a consistant 18-20 minutes , then I would put him around the 12-14 ppg range ..

Dr. Awesome

07-01-2010, 06:24 PM

I voted 4-6. He is a rookie who has to battle a lot of solid veterans for playing time. He was inconsistant in college and will be facing much stronger, defensive players in the NBA. A lot of people known as shooters struggle early on adjusting to better defenses and I believe George will suffer the same fate.

The guy is not NBA ready, most scouts saw him as a project, so for us to think he will beat out Granger, Rush, Jones, and Dunleavy for minutes seems farfetched to me.

Return to Glory

07-01-2010, 06:24 PM

I said 10-12, but like EVERYBODY stated in depends on his MIN.

IndyPacer

07-01-2010, 07:16 PM

My guess is between 8 and 12 ppg. Slow early and lower % early on with steady improvement. This is assuming that he doesn't get injured and isn't nailed to the bench for some bizarre reason by JOB.

Brad8888

07-01-2010, 07:50 PM

It will depend entirely on his 3P%. The higher that % is, the more minutes he will play. If he shoots 40%, look for him to get 25 or so minutes towards the second half of the season, and his season scoring average would end up around 12 ppg. Less than that and he won't see the floor 10 minutes per game, barring an unforeseen trade of Dunleavy before February, and his scoring might end up more like 5 ppg.

ChicagoJ

07-02-2010, 11:25 AM

Wow. You guys are out of your freakin' minds.

We drafted a guy on upside who is clearly not NBA-ready right now, and you think he's going to start (!!!!) (out of position at SG, where he probably can't guard anyone) (!!!!) and average 7-12 PPG (!!!!) as a rookie (!!!!).

Our last "upside" draft pick (Williams) scored in double-figures a whopping 6 times as a rookie, and only had one stretch in his career where he scored in double-figures for three straight games (March 19, 22, 25 of 2008), which ... for whatever its worth ... came after a series of DNPs and his four previous appearances (Feb 23, 25, 27 and March 6) resulted in a combined 3 points.)

Our last NBA-ready wing player (Rush) scored in double figures 19 times as a rookie, including 12 of his last 13 games (the exception being game #9 where he fouled out in 25 minutes on a lousy 2-10 shooting game.)

You guys are acting like George is ready start right away, like Brandon was. And Brandon's minutes and role was sporatic/ fluctuating and he was playing his natural position.

How long do you really think its going to take George to be NBA ready?

I'd say, "give me what you're having"... :alcohol:... but it looks like a number of posters are taking stupid pills or forgot to vote with a green font.

Wow. Just wow.

I'm actually looking forward to seeing what he can do, playing forward, in 2011-2012 and 2012-13.

Even though we've got a young team, its amazing that so few posters seem to remember the progression you go through with a young player.

BigAndy

07-02-2010, 11:37 AM

If he gets 15 mpg, I think he can pump out 7 to 9 ppg....depending on his aggressiveness to score and our PG situation.

Of course we'll know more closer to the season....I really have no idea.

I agree. It's hard to say how many points he would average on the team as it is now, but if we add a PG that can actually distribute the ball, his points would definately go up. It's too bad that JOB wants a shoot first point guard. I just don't feel like that's what that position is supposed to do.

Unclebuck

07-02-2010, 11:43 AM

Actually this thread is very instructive. I now see why all the criticism of the coahcing staff for not playing rookies (as if they should just be given minutes) but many of you have unrealistic expectations for a rookie picked 10th in a weak draft, and i think what happens is you build expectations in your mind and then blame the coach because he fails to play the rookie the needed number of minutes to reach your unrealistic expectations

ChicagoJ

07-02-2010, 11:50 AM

I just posted this somewhere else, not all rookies are the same. I obviously harped a lot that Rush and Hibbert needed more minutes as rookies, but they were polished and NBA-ready. And O'Brien still didn't play them as much as I would have liked (and probably for legit reasons).

But there's no way that any of our rookies get into the rotation on a regular basis, unless Rolle shows he's ready for 6-12 mpg as a backup to Roy. Which would be a nice bonus as we need a backup C.

imawhat

07-02-2010, 12:04 PM

I really don't have expectations for him. Considering 90% of this board, including myself, hasn't seen him play, I'm confused why so many have a pts/game expectation for him.

BPump33

07-02-2010, 01:14 PM

A Day in the Life, pt. 3 is up on pacers.com now. Man, I love Roy Hibbert. What a great addition to this franchise he has been on and off the court.

We drafted a guy on upside who is clearly not NBA-ready right now, and you think he's going to start (!!!!) (out of position at SG, where he probably can't guard anyone) (!!!!) and average 7-12 PPG (!!!!) as a rookie (!!!!).

Our last "upside" draft pick (Williams) scored in double-figures a whopping 6 times as a rookie, and only had one stretch in his career where he scored in double-figures for three straight games (March 19, 22, 25 of 2008), which ... for whatever its worth ... came after a series of DNPs and his four previous appearances (Feb 23, 25, 27 and March 6) resulted in a combined 3 points.)

Our last NBA-ready wing player (Rush) scored in double figures 19 times as a rookie, including 12 of his last 13 games (the exception being game #9 where he fouled out in 25 minutes on a lousy 2-10 shooting game.)

You guys are acting like George is ready start right away, like Brandon was. And Brandon's minutes and role was sporatic/ fluctuating and he was playing his natural position.

How long do you really think its going to take George to be NBA ready?

I'd say, "give me what you're having"... :alcohol:... but it looks like a number of posters are taking stupid pills or forgot to vote with a green font.

Wow. Just wow.

I'm actually looking forward to seeing what he can do, playing forward, in 2011-2012 and 2012-13.

Even though we've got a young team, its amazing that so few posters seem to remember the progression you go through with a young player.

I think you're being a rather melodramatic. Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert both scored within the 7-12 ppg range that you find to be so outlandish as rookies. Even AJ Price made it to 7 ppg as a rookie, and he was a 2nd rounder who couldn't get playing time despite playing well. Tyler Hansbrough also made it into that range even with his injury problems. Paul doesn't need to start at SG to make 3 or 4 baskets a game and a freethrow or two to get into that scoring range. He can back up both wing positions and should be just fine. And you make it sound like he has less skills than Thabeet and will require a few years of training to even get on the floor. Shawne Williams was considered to be a surprising pick at #17, whereas Paul George has been considered by many to be the BPA at #10.

ChicagoJ

07-02-2010, 05:46 PM

I think you're being a rather melodramatic. Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert both scored within the 7-12 ppg range that you find to be so outlandish as rookies. Even AJ Price made it to 7 ppg as a rookie, and he was a 2nd rounder who couldn't get playing time despite playing well.

That's fine. They were NBA-ready and ready to play as rookies.

Not many people are saying George is NBA-ready. He's the BPA at #10 because of what he might be in 2-4 seasons down the road.

I'll bet George's rookie season is closer to Fred Jones than Brandon Rush.

But then again, I don't think he'll be able to stay on the court as a SG. Who's he going to guard? Everyone will be able to go around him with ease, and if he sags off they'll shoot over the top of him.

He's a forward. And I think he'll be a good one someday and I'll also bet that he might make a good throw-in at the trading deadline to get some actual talent for one of our expiring contracts if somebody thinks he's "ahead of schedule".

Hicks

07-02-2010, 05:54 PM

When did Paul George get a rep for being slow footed? I've not read that. I thought he was supposed to have some speed, and of course we're talking about a 6'8"/6'9" guy with a 6'11" wingspan, so I'd think altogether he's not exactly going to be the Troy Murphy of 2's when it comes to staying in front of his man.....

Hillman's 'Fro'

07-02-2010, 06:32 PM

Tell me how many games the Pacers are gonna win next season
and then I'll let you know how little or much I care how many
pts George (or any particular Pacers player) averages per
game.

IndyPacer

07-02-2010, 07:35 PM

That's fine. They were NBA-ready and ready to play as rookies.

Not many people are saying George is NBA-ready. He's the BPA at #10 because of what he might be in 2-4 seasons down the road.

I'll bet George's rookie season is closer to Fred Jones than Brandon Rush.

But then again, I don't think he'll be able to stay on the court as a SG. Who's he going to guard? Everyone will be able to go around him with ease, and if he sags off they'll shoot over the top of him.

He's a forward. And I think he'll be a good one someday and I'll also bet that he might make a good throw-in at the trading deadline to get some actual talent for one of our expiring contracts if somebody thinks he's "ahead of schedule".

Paul George is one of the most athletic players we've had on this team in years. I think you are confusing George with Dunleavy.

KennerLeaguer

07-02-2010, 11:14 PM

Wow. You guys are out of your freakin' minds.

We drafted a guy on upside who is clearly not NBA-ready right now, and you think he's going to start (!!!!) (out of position at SG, where he probably can't guard anyone) (!!!!) and average 7-12 PPG (!!!!) as a rookie (!!!!).

Our last "upside" draft pick (Williams) scored in double-figures a whopping 6 times as a rookie, and only had one stretch in his career where he scored in double-figures for three straight games (March 19, 22, 25 of 2008), which ... for whatever its worth ... came after a series of DNPs and his four previous appearances (Feb 23, 25, 27 and March 6) resulted in a combined 3 points.)

Our last NBA-ready wing player (Rush) scored in double figures 19 times as a rookie, including 12 of his last 13 games (the exception being game #9 where he fouled out in 25 minutes on a lousy 2-10 shooting game.)

You guys are acting like George is ready start right away, like Brandon was. And Brandon's minutes and role was sporatic/ fluctuating and he was playing his natural position.

How long do you really think its going to take George to be NBA ready?

I'd say, "give me what you're having"... :alcohol:... but it looks like a number of posters are taking stupid pills or forgot to vote with a green font.

Wow. Just wow.

I'm actually looking forward to seeing what he can do, playing forward, in 2011-2012 and 2012-13.

Even though we've got a young team, its amazing that so few posters seem to remember the progression you go through with a young player.

Great post. And I totally agree obviously.

Lets not place too many expectations on a rookie who was virtually an unknown commodity while in college. If he performs great this season then that will be fantatsic and a pleasant surprise. But if your expectations are too high and he fails to deliver to your satisfaction that will only lead to disappointment.

And is it just me or do folks here seem to be more high on George by far than they were on Rush, Hibbert and Hansbrough....(combined) when they were drafted? :). Interesting considering George had the least acclaimed college career.

KennerLeaguer

07-02-2010, 11:17 PM

I think you're being a rather melodramatic. Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert both scored within the 7-12 ppg range that you find to be so outlandish as rookies. .

Roy was 7 points per game and I thought Brandon was around 9 ppg. I can't see George averaging double figures in points his first season.

Pacergeek

07-02-2010, 11:34 PM

We Pacer fans have no choice but to believe in Paul George. He has to be good! The last few seasons have been so miserable, George has to be the savior of the franchise.

ChicagoJ

07-02-2010, 11:55 PM

Paul George is one of the most athletic players we've had on this team in years. I think you are confusing George with Dunleavy.

No, I'm confusing him with Jon Bender. And so are you.

ChicagoJ

07-03-2010, 12:06 AM

Interesting considering George had the least acclaimed college career.

We're back to overvaluing "upside" vs. actual accomplishment. Unfortunately, we've drafted "accomplished" players with lower ceilings because we just needed bodies to fill out the eight-man rotation. Now we've got the luxury to swing for the fences by taking a player who hasn't accomplished much yet.

I don't mind taking the chance, and having optimism that he'll someday hit his potential, but the expectations are outrageously silly.

My only problem with drafting George in the first round was they there was no way they could take another - and better - SF in the second round (Butler.) Let's just hope that George reaches enough of his upside that he becomes better than Butler before Butler's knee heals.

jeffg-body

07-03-2010, 12:11 AM

I see this situation going down like this:

1. George will get limited minutes in the beginning and go for about 5-7

2. As he gets more experience he is given more minutes and is catching up to NBA speed. At this point I see him going 7-10 consistently.

3. By the end of the year I see him in that sixth man role where he may have nights in the lower digits and good nights where he could pull down 15-20.

I did it by average and just went with 10-12.

This could all change quickly barring injury or trade that could force him into a starters role for any length of time.

ReginaldWayne

07-03-2010, 12:27 AM

We Pacer fans have no choice but to believe in Paul George. He has to be good! The last few seasons have been so miserable, George has to be the savior of the franchise.

yea thats true and i hope that he is, but if youre wrong is the disappointment gna be even harder lol ?

Pacergeek

07-03-2010, 11:20 AM

if george doesn't pan out, then yes I will be crushed. I am officially on the George bandwagon, and I am predicting that he will be great. Granted, I have never ever seen him play, but he has to be the answer.

Ozwalt72

07-03-2010, 11:27 AM

If he gets 15 mpg, I think he can pump out 7 to 9 ppg....depending on his aggressiveness to score and our PG situation.

Of course we'll know more closer to the season....I really have no idea.

I'd like to change my expectations. I don't think I really considered much more than potential in the post. After checking out stats of similar players, and the potential for minutes for George, his PPG could range wildly. I think he'll get a decent amount of playing time starting out, 10 MPG easy. Going through the season, the Pacers will probably try to test his workload a bit. You'll probably see his minutes peak in January to the tune of 20-22 mpg.

Depending on how he responds, I think he'll end up averaging anywhere from 4 to 8ppg this year. Of course, injuries to him or teammates could drastically change his output.

count55

07-04-2010, 08:24 AM

Without commenting on how many points he will or won't score, I must say, I do like this guy, just from a personality perspective (from what I've seen), and JayRedd met him draft night, getting a good impression.

Also, this tweet came out a couple of hours ago

Up early in the gym.. Dedication baby! about 2 hours ago via Echofon

http://twitter.com/King24George/status/17712721953

xBulletproof

07-04-2010, 09:59 AM

Also, this tweet came out a couple of hours ago

http://twitter.com/King24George/status/17712721953

7 AM in the gym on a Sunday? Not just a Sunday ... but a 4th of July Sunday to be exact. This gives me hope that all of his work ethic talk isn't just lip service. Which would be just about the greatest thing I could hope for out of the guy at this point.