Monday, December 15, 2008

The US
government actually kept schtum
about the bailout over the weekend (thus far) - bear in mind it is
still Sunday in the US though. So the surge in today's market was more
about hazarding a guess that the US will respond positively to any
announcement (and there is the Fed rate cut which will happen this week
- I think 0.25 - and also it's quadruple witching
so there should be a real roller-coaster).

Anyway - the All Ords gained back Friday's slump, plus 1.7
points. Anybody who bought the Australian market after 10:03 today lost
money for the day.

I have made no secret of the fact that the US market should be
re-shorted (if you're not short already) the moment
the probability distribution of the automaker bailout
collapses - that is, once all uncertainty about it is removed. I also
think that short interest rates are whacky and should be sold (I said
that last week too), and that the long bond short - which is currently
a huge spike in my ass - will be the trade of the year.

Fortunately we have massive gains from Euro, Gold and
AUD longs which more than offset the losses on the US 30-year
bonds. In other words, we bought some wiggle-room to be able to short
and yet watch this last historic blowoff... without going
bankrupt.

But there is better news than that - dearest Reader. Crom, Marduk and Sutekh have granted
me a boon.

Some time ago (as it turns out it was December 22, 2002) I
wrote a pretty impassioned piece about how crony-capitalism would not
be conducive to the advancement of nanotechnology (in its pure form). I
had thought this piece lost - and was wonderly wroth.

However the Mighty Mavro had saved it on a backup disk, and it
was restored to me; moreover, it gave me the wherewithal to hunt out
other, similar things that I wrote at about the same time.

I am firmly of the opinion that humanity has to seize back the
reins of power in order to propel ourselves through the next big
technological change barrier - and we have to be merciless in throwing
aside the parasites that use us to enrich themselves (well, they don't
use me hardly at all - I am a royal pain in the ass for them... on
purpose).

We are literally a couple of years - ten at most - from
fulfilling something that I wrote as an exam answer for Comparative Economic Systems
(or Capitalism -
Contrasting Views) back in 1994: in it I wrote that
Marxian 'de-stratification' of society would come from within capitalism;
that far from requiring a vanguard of the proletariat and all the
coercive machinery of the State and Party, the final 'conquering' of
economic scarcity and the fulfilment of man's seemingly-unlimited wants
would be achieved by capitalism - with its reward for innovation and
its tendency to generate technological advances.

The actual answer went on for pages and pages - it was among
the best answers I ever gave in a written exam. Modesty prevents me
from telling you that I got an 'A' for the subject: Professor Ward was
a committed Marxist, too - a testament to his open-mindedness that he
gave an equally-committed anarcho-capitalist such a grade.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO)
- surged a whopping 83.2 points (2.41%), finishing at 3535.7 points.
The index hit an intraday high of 3598.9 at 11:29 am, while the low for
the day was 3535.5 - set at 3:38 pm Sydney time. As usual the 'short
the nuffie orgasm' was a payoff strategy.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.24bn units, 4.3% above
its 10-day average of 1.19bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all
stocks included 1031 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had
non-zero trade volume). Of these, 480 issues rose, with volume in
rising issues totalling 775.6m units; there were 325 declining stocks,
which traded aggregate declining volume of 374.7m shares.

Of the 488 All Ordinaries components, 263 rose while 136 fell.
Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.8:1, with
590.8m shares traded in gainers while 331.86m shares traded in the
day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX
200 (XJO)
- hurtled skyward to the tune of 81 points (2.31%), closing out the
session at 3591.4 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX
20 Leaders (XTL)
- performed solidly, in moving up 36.7 points (1.74%), closing out the
session at 2148.8 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 15 index components finished to the
upside, and 6 lost ground. The stocks which make up the index traded a
total of 234.83m units; 15 index components rose, with rising volume
amounting to 70.24m shares, while the 6 decliners had volume traded
totalling 164.59m units. The major percentage gainers within the index
smelt like Resources ...

Rio Tinto (RIO),
+$3.69 (10.19%) to $39.90 on volume of 3.7 million shares;

Woodside Petroleum (WPL),
+$2.43 (7.35%) to $35.49 on volume of 2 million shares;

BHP Billiton (BHP),
+$2.08 (7.22%) to $30.90 on volume of 16 million shares;

Wesfarmers (WES),
+$0.88 (5.74%) to $16.20 on volume of 1.9 million shares; and

Newcrest Mining (NCM),
+$1.49 (5.3%) to $29.60 on volume of 1.7 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the
following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

Telstra Corporation. (TLS),
-$0.48 (11.62%) to $3.65 on volume of 139.7 million shares after
getting a smack on the bum from the government because its homework was
not up to par;

CSL (CSL),
-$1.09 (3.73%) to $28.11 on volume of 3.9 million shares - because
nobody bathes in blood or blood products (as I said when CSL was above
$50);

Westfield Group (WDC),
-$0.14 (1.03%) to $13.41 on volume of 6 million shares;

National Australia Bank (NAB),
-$0.09 (0.47%) to $19.01 on volume of 5.1 million shares; and

Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA),
-$0.1 (0.36%) to $28.05 on volume of 5.3 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO)
absolutely wiped the floor with its large-cap counterpart. The Small
Ords had a bit of a moonshot, stacking on 47.7 points (3.01%), closing
out the session at 1631.4 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 131 index
components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 55 closed lower for
the session.

The 208 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 261.43m units:
volume in the 131 gainers totalling 146.6m shares, with trade totalling
46.99m units in the index's 55 declining components. The major
percentage gainers within the index were

Market Breadth

GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, 9 registered an advance for the
session, the remaining 2 lost ground.

The best performing index was Materials (XMJ),
which added 558.1 points (6.89%) to 8659.2 points. The 45 stocks which
make up the index traded a total of 163.51m units; 42 index components
rose, with rising volume amounting to 152.54m shares, while the sole
declining stock traded 0.92m units. The major percentage gainers within
the index were

Perilya Limited (PEM),
+$0.04 (25.81%) to $0.20 on volume of 1.5 million shares;

Great Southern (GTP),
+$0.05 (22.5%) to $0.25 on volume of 506.9 thousand shares;

Sundance Resources (SDL),
+$0.01 (18.06%) to $0.09 on volume of 14.1 million shares;

Western Areas NL (WSA),
+$0.48 (15.05%) to $3.67 on volume of 708.2 thousand shares; and

Aquarius Platinum (AQP),
+$0.39 (12.75%) to $3.45 on volume of 1.7 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Energy
(XEJ),
which gained 664 points (5.57%) to 12588.4 points. The 19 stocks which
make up the index traded a total of 40.13m units; 17 index components
rose, with rising volume amounting to 36.22m shares, while the sole
declining stock traded 0.7m units. The major percentage gainers within
the index were

Arrow Energy (AOE),
+$0.30 (15%) to $2.30 on volume of 4.3 million shares;

Worleyparsons (WOR),
+$1.47 (11.2%) to $14.60 on volume of 1.1 million shares;

Paladin Energy (PDN),
+$0.25 (9.69%) to $2.83 on volume of 3.8 million shares; and

Centennial Coal Company (CEY),
+$0.22 (8.63%) to $2.77 on volume of 3.9 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Consumer
Discretionary (XDJ),
which climbed 37.5 points (3.44%) to 1129.2 points. The 23 stocks which
make up the index traded a total of 83.71m units; 21 index components
rose, with rising volume amounting to 78.89m shares, while the 2
decliners had volume traded totalling 4.82m units. The major percentage
gainers within the index were

David Jones (DJS),
+$0.22 (7.83%) to $3.03 on volume of 1.3 million shares;

The worst-performed index for the session was Telecommunications
(XTJ),
which dipped 142 points (10.28%) to 1239.7 points. The 3 stocks which
make up the index traded a total of 147.87m units, but it was al
lTelstra today. TLS traded 139.74m units, and the other 2 index
components both rose, with rising volume amounting to 8.13m
shares.

Oh Manuel, Manuel, why didn't you have someone do your
homework for you?

Telstra Corporation. (TLS),
-$0.48 (11.62%) to $3.65 on volume of 139.7 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Healthcare
(XHJ),
which slid 151.8 points (1.98%) to 7512.6 points. The 9 stocks which
make up the index traded a total of 10.82m units; The 5 decliners had
volume traded totalling 6.87m units, and 4 index components rose, with
rising volume amounting to 3.95m shares, The major percentage decliners
within the index were