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After Kennedy’s Exit, Supreme Court’s Center Is Likely to Shift Right

The retirement of Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, long a critical swing vote, could move the Supreme Court to the right if he is replaced with a reliable conservative.Related Article

Term beginning:

1937

’40

’50

’60

’70

’80

’90

2000

’10

+4

More

Conservative

Thomas

+3

Alito

+2

Gorsuch

+1

Roberts

Martin-

Quinn

ideology

score

Kennedy

-1

Breyer

Kagan

-2

Ginsburg

-3

Sotomayor

-4

-5

The median justice is the one who can help secure a five-vote majority in controversial cases.

Justice Kennedy has been the median justice for 18 of the 30 years he has served on the court.

-6

More

Liberal

-7

Term beginning:

’40

’50

’60

’70

’80

’90

2000

’10

+4

More

Conservative

Thomas

+3

Alito

+2

Gorsuch

+1

Roberts

Kennedy

-1

Breyer

Kagan

-2

Ginsburg

-3

Sotomayor

Martin-Quinn

ideology score

-4

-5

The median justice is the one who can help secure a five-vote majority in controversial cases. Justice Kennedy has been the median justice for 18 of the 30 years he has served on the court.

-6

More

Liberal

-7

Source: Lee Epstein, Washington University in St. Louis; Andrew D. Martin and Kevin Quinn, University of Michigan | Note: Martin-Quinn ideology scores are based on voting patterns and are developed from the Supreme Court Database by Lee Epstein.