Oklahoma's QB Kyler Murray is an elite quarterback prospect

Now that Kyler Murray has officially chosen football over baseball, it’s time to figure out just how good a prospect the 2018 Heisman Trophy winner is. That question will be discussed ad nauseam until Murray’s name finally comes off the board in late April. Today, I want to plant my flag and tell the world where I believe Murray belongs as an NFL prospect.

As a first-time starter at Oklahoma, Murray totaled 5,362 yards in 14 games for the Sooners. He tallied 54 total touchdowns while throwing just seven interceptions. According to Pro Football Focus, Murray was the second-best player in college football last season, finishing the year with an overall grade of 94.8.

One of my favorite ways to evaluate quarterbacks is to see how they perform on third down at the college level. Recently, I wrote a piece for Pro Football Weekly examining third-down yards per attempt for every quarterback drafted since 2011. To say that third-down passing numbers are predictive is an understatement. It might just be the single most important stat for a quarterback prospect.

How well did Murray perform on third-down in college? Well, he has the highest-third down yards per attempt average of any quarterback prospect since 2011. Only Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes, and Marcus Mariota are even comparable. As for the 2019 draft class, Murray’s numbers stand out among his peers.

Without further ado, here is the 3rd down YPA numbers for the 2019 QB Class:

When you combine Murray’s third-down passing efficiency, his arm strength and his ability to make plays on the ground, he is the clear-cut QB1 in this draft class. There is going to be questions about his height and deservedly so, but it certainly didn’t impact him at all at the college level.

And with the recent success of quarterbacks like Drew Brees, Baker Mayfield, and Russell Wilson, the issue of height seems to be fading more and more by the seasons, especially when you consider that there is no correlation between quarterback height and batted passes. A quarterback’s “lack of height” is the most overblown measurement in scouting.

The bottom line is if you need a franchise quarterback, look no further than Kyler Murray. He may just be the best quarterback prospect to enter the draft in the last several seasons.

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