Afternoon all. What a difference five weeks makes. On an overcast day in late May in Paris, Serena Williams suffered the ignominy of a first opening-round defeat in 47 grand slams, to the world No111 Virginie Razzano. Commentators asked whether it was the beginning of the end for the 30-year-old. Now, on a sunny – yes sunny – day in early July in London, she is the overwhelming favourite not just to reach the final, but also to go on and win a fifth title, a 14th major overall, and extend the 21st-century domination of the Williams family at Wimbledon.

Victoria Azarenka, the world No2 and Australian Open champion, has a score to settle too, having lost to the eventual champion Petra Kvitova at this stage last year. But her head-to-head record against Serena is not good: she's won only one of eight matches, and has lost all five of their previous meetings at grand slams. If the Wimbledon rather than the French Open Serena turns up today, Azarenka will be in for an uncomfortable afternoon.

Pre-match musings. So what does Serena make of her chances this afternoon? "If Victoria wins she's had a better year than I have. She's been so successful already, winning a grand slam, but going against a player like that I feel she almost has an advantage. So that makes me really relaxed and I have nothing to lose." Hmm. Reverse psychology, I think.

Pre-match stat attack.The IBM SlamTracker says that Serena needs to win more than 23% of first-serve points with an ace and win more than 69% of points on her first serve. Considering the way she's been serving this fortnight, that shouldn't be a problem.

Tik, tok, tikity, tok, the players are out and warming up, Serena is sporting a striking cerise headband and raincoat (has anyone told her it's sunny?), while Azarenka is sticking to the Wimbledon rulebook by wearing all white.

A quick Royal Box roll call. There's no Wills and Kate today, but will Princess Elizabeth of Yugoslavia do? Or Wimbledon royalty Cliff Richard?

First set: Williams 1-0 Azarenka* (*denotes next server)Serena calls tails and as always, elects to intimidate her opponent from the off by serving first. Her groundstrokes let her down early on, a forehand goes long and a backhand slaps into the net, 30-all. But Serena's serve gets her out of trouble and she aims an ace down the T to take the game. The crowd are laughing at something – it could be a pigeon overhead, but I think it's more likely to be Azarenka's owl-like distress call every time she hits the ball.

First set: *Williams 1-1 AzarenkaThe crowd calm down a little, as does Azarenka as she settles into the match by holding to 15. Some smart play there from the Belarusian, including a foray into the net and a body serve which bamboozles Serena. But there's a double fault too, something Azarenka is prone to do and something she'll have to cut down this afternoon if she's to have any chance of reaching a first Wimbledon final.

First set: Williams 2-1 Azarenka*Boom, boom, boom. Azarenka isn't getting anywhere near Serena's serves at the moment. That's four aces for the match already, and 100% of first-serve points won. Serena would probably give the men a run for their money with the way she's serving right now. Come to think of it, she did once beat Andy Roddick as a junior. Roddick's excuse? "When we were 10, I had to literally run around in the shower to get wet. She was bench-pressing dump trucks already."

First set: *Williams 2-2 AzarenkaWith Azarenka 30-15 ahead. Serena then has a chance to strike down the line, but she makes a complete hash of a forehand and fires so wide it doesn't even land in the tramlines. 40-15. Undettered, Serena goes down the line on the next point on the return, this time on the backhand side, and batters the baseline to within about a millimetre of its life. 40-30. She then goes long. Game Azarenka. Although Azarenka is level, it's Serena who's forcing the play at the moment, she just hasn't quite found the range yet on her groundstrokes.

First set: Williams 3-2 Azarenka*Every time I look down at my computer to write something, I hear a quick pop and look up to see I've already missed the next point because Serena's dished up another ace. Gah. The perils of being a game-by-game reporter. Serena holds to love.

First set: *Williams 3-3 AzarenkaAzarenka, meanwhile, is getting less than 50% of her first serves in, and there's another double fault for the stats. From deuce, Azarenka pounces on a short ball, cue an obligatory fist pump and "COME ON." Advantage Azarenka. But then it's Serena's turn to charge forward, strike and let out a roar. Deuce. Advantage Azarenka. The longest game of the match so far and it's Azarenka who prevails.

First set: Williams 4-3 Azarenka*So you can guess how this one plays out, right? 15-0, 30-0, 40-0, game.

First set: *Williams 5-3 AzarenkaA gasp from the crowd on the first point as Serena sprints to the net, but slips just as she's about to hit the ball – and instead of dispatching what would surely have been a winner, she nets. Serena gets back up on her feet, both literally and figuratively, to rattle off the next three points. 15-40, two break points, the first of the day. Azarenka goes for the drop shot, again making her opponent hurtle forward, but this time a sure-footed Serena makes no mistake. Serena will serve for the set.

Williams wins the first set 6-3Serena storms 40-15 ahead. Two set points. That's just the eight aces and 12 unreturned serves for the match so far (the full stats courtesy of the IBM SlamTracker are here). "Possibly the best serving performance I've ever seen in a women's match," says John McEnroe. Brief resistance from Azarenka with a backhand winner to get to 40-30, but the world No2 can't save the second set point. Azarenka isn't playing badly here by any means, but Serena is an unstoppable force when she's sending down Exocets like this.

Second set: *Williams 6-3, 0-1 AzarenkaAzarenka is again in trouble at 30-all, but she digs out one of her best serves of the day. Serena can only dink it back, and Azarenka swats it away for a winner – she could do with a few more of those, having hit only four winners to Serena's 20 in the opening set. The Australian Open champion holds.

Second set: Williams 6-3, 1-1 Azarenka*Azarenka gets a look-in at 30-all, but no bother for Serena. Ace No9 – her fastest of the day at 119mph – averts the danger. 40-30. But wait – deuce – the deepest Azarenka has got into any of Serena's service games. Serena takes a breath, bounces the ball one or two or three or four or five or six or seven times (it's always seven, not sure why), and sends down Ace No10. Before holding.

Second set: *Williams 6-3, 2-1 AzarenkaOne of Azarenka's best points at 0-15, as she sends her opponent from side to side before striking past a scampering Serena's left wing. 15-all. But that's as good as it gets for the Belarusian. 15-30. 15-40. Game, as Serena batters the poor life out of Azarenka's serve with a fizzing forehand cross-court winner. Last week, Serena was already serving like a Wimbledon champion. This week, she's striking the ball and moving like a Wimbledon champion too. Venus nods appreciatively from the stands.

Second set: Williams 6-3, 3-1 Azarenka*Whenever Azarenka thinks she has a sniff of a chance, Serena storms back. From 40-15 down on Serena's serve, Azarenka gets to deuce. But that just makes Serena even stronger. Ace, ace. "Has a player ever defied convention the way Serena has? A month from a 'devastating' loss in Paris, she's three sets from another major," says Sports Illustrated's Jon Wertheim on Twitter.

Second set: *Williams 6-3, 3-2 Azarenka"A vital hold for Azarenka," says John McEnroe. Azarenka duly obliges by coming through to 30. But Serena still has the break, and in this serving form, looks unbreakable.

Second set: Williams 6-3, 3-3 Azarenka*But wait, what have we got here? A first break point for Azarenka, 30-40. But it disappears as quickly as it came, as Serena sends down her 15th ace. Deuce. But look, here's another break point. Advantage Azarenka. Serena gives Azarenka a look-in with a second serve, and then frames a backhand which lands in row Z. And there's the break. Well, well. A bit of tightness there with the prospect of a seventh final looming.

Second set: *Williams 6-3, 3-4 AzarenkaBut no sooner does Azarenka break, than she's in danger of being broken. 30-40. Crisis briefly averted. Deuce. The best rally of the match plays out, 22 shots as the intiative shifts back and forth, before Azarenka blinks first and nets. Advantage Serena. Deuce. Advantage Serena. Deuce. Advantage Azarenka. And the Belarusian squeezes through. For the first time in the match, the pressure is on Serena. How will the four-times champion react?

Second set: Williams 6-3, 4-4 Azarenka*With an ace, of course. And another service missile. And a backhand bomb. And another service strike. Serena holds to 15. Why couldn't she do that two games ago?

Second set: *Williams 6-3, 4-5 Azarenka"Afternoon Katy," chirps Simon McMahon. "I'm no expert, certainly not on women's tennis, and I'm prepared to be shot down in flames by those who are but, Serena aside, part of the lack of appeal (for me anyway, when compared to the men's game) is the similarity not just in style, but in name of the top players. Azarenka, Radwanska, Sharapova, Kvitova, Wozniacki, Errani, Zvonareva, Lisicki, Petrova; it's hard for the casual observer to tell them apart. The same cannot be said of Djokovic, Federer, Nadal and Murray." True Simon, I think one of the problems at the top of the women's game at the moment is there aren't enough stand-out stars or rivalries and the crowds don't know who to root for; if you go back 10 years or so, there were some wonderful narratives and back-stories playing out with the likes of Capriati, Hingis, Seles, Henin etc. Azarenka, by the way, holds to 30.

Second set: Williams 6-3, 5-5 Azarenka*Serena then holds to 15 to put the pressure straight back on. That's 18 aces for the match now, she's getting close to the Wimbledon record she set in the fourth round against Zheng Jie.

Second set: *Williams 6-3, 5-6 AzarenkaAzarenka sees Serena's hold to 15 and raises it, with her first love hold of the match. The way she's responded after going a break down has been mightily impressive. This looks to be heading for a tie-break ...

Second set tie-break: Williams 3-3 AzarenkaAzarenka strikes first, cue a fist pump. Serena swats a short ball away, cue a steely glare. Ace, cue another steely glare, as she moves 2-1 ahead. Serena misaims as her forehand flies off the net post before almost taking someone's head off in the front row, and she then nets a return. 3-2 to Azarenka. But Serena opens up the court before bludgeoning a backhand winner. 3-all. They change ends ...

Williams beats Azarenka 6-3, 7-6 (8-6)A looping Serena forehand somehow, somehow drops in. She leads 4-3. Over to Azarenka to serve ... two no-nonsense points, 4-4, 5-4. Azarenka fist pumps some more. She does like a fist pump. Ace No23 from Serena – to tie her own Wimbledon record – 5-5. Azarenka nets and squeals – 6-5 to Serena – match point. But it's not on Serena's serve and after deciding to throw in her first drop-shot of the match, her lob flies long. 6-6. Azarenka gifts Serena another match point – 7-6 – but this time Serena has the chance to pull the trigger on her serve. And that she does, as she finishes with a record 24th ace. Wow. The victor does some fist pumping of her own, before jumping up and down and blowing a kiss or two. She's into her seventh Wimbledon final, 10 years after her first, and she'll be the overwhelming favourite against Agnieszka Radwanksa.

And here's what Serena makes of that: "I'm excited. I've been working so hard. I got a little tight in that second set and she came back. I'm so glad I came through. I'm just so glad to get through that tie-break. She [Radwanska] is doing unbelievable, she's going to be getting every ball back. Regardless, I'm so happy to have got this far. Thanks guys."

No thank you Serena, that was some serving performance, making it 85 aces for the Championships so far (the match stats are here). Maybe she should play Andy Murray on Sunday instead? Thanks for reading. Bye!