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UFC 162 Preliminary Predictions

David Mitchell is coming off an exciting battle when he out-fought
Simeon Thoreson for a unanimous decision win.
The fight showcased Mitchell's jiu jitsu skills, both defensive and
offensive, but not much else. He has
officially been thrown in to the deep ends for his next fight against Mike
Pierce, leaving many to believe he has no chance. Mike Pierce is currently on a three fight
winning streak, with the only losses of his career coming from NCAA wrestling
standouts. The UFC don't seem to be
taking his streak seriously, and have matched him up with a fighter who only
has one win in the UFC. Hopefully
another win will change Mike's circumstances.

Striking- David Mitchell's striking is not his strong point. He has a 32% overall striking success, with
69% of these coming on the feet. David
displayed some varied striking in his last fight, but that was facing Simeon
Thoreson, a fellow BJJ specialist. Against Mike Pierce he will be at a huge
disadvantage.

Mike Pierce is a capable boxer, who holds some knockout
power in his fists, although that is rarely on show. He has a solid chin as well, which should
help him avoid any nasty shocks from Daudi Mitchell. The striking advantage goes to Mike Pierce.

Wrestling -
When it comes to wrestling, David Mitchell isn't one for double leg takedowns
or clinch throws. Most of his fights
I've seen outside of the UFC include a whole lot of guard pulling, which is an
adequate tactic due to his skill of his back.

However, Mike Pierce's wrestling is the foundation on which
he has built his career on, whether it's grinding an opponent against the
fence, or ground and pounding them from guard, it's his bread and butter. Even though Pierce has only been defeated by
wrestling champions, he has landed takedowns on; Johny Hendricks, Jon Fitch and
Josh Koscheck. Most recently, Pierce
landed a huge six takedowns on Seth Baczynski, proving this category has by far
the largest skill discrepancy between the two fighters.

Jiu Jitsu –
This may be where David Mitchell holds an advantage against Mike Pierce. Never the less, I'm not sure it will
matter. I doubt David Mitchell will be
able to submit or sweep Mike Pierce from the bottom, but it's his best chance
of winning the fight.

As for Mike Pierce, he utilises his strong wrestling on the
ground, and translates that to good submission defence. He has been in the guard of Carlos Eduardo
Rocha, a fine BJJ fighter, and survived that.
Although the actual advantage for jiu jitsu goes to Mitchell, in an MMA
sense it will not matter.

I think Mike Pierce easily controls David Mitchell, and will
probably look to stand for half a round, and then bully Mitchell in the clinch and taking him down for the
other stages of the round.

Prediction – Mike
Pierce defeats David Mitchell by unanimous decision

Seth 'The Polish
Pistola' Baczynski vs Brian Melancon

This fight will most likely be won by the man with the
better strategy on the night. Neither of
these two fighters seems to excel in any given area, and are fairly well
rounded tough-nosed guys. Seth Baczynski was recently denied an extension to
his four fight winning streak when he lost a tough decision to Mike Pierce. Brian Melancon will be making his UFC debut
on Saturday, and has a fairly hard first fight for a man with only eight fights
under his belt.

Striking – Seth Baczynski likes to come forward with his
muay thai, which can leave him susceptible to takedowns, resulting in him
getting taken down six times in his last fight.
Seth has six stoppages via strikes, and has stunned a few of his
opponents before submitting them. He
likes to use knees and boxing combinations that string in plenty of uppercuts
in an attempt to ward off wrestlers.

Brian Melancon has some real
power in his hands, and a solid chin to go with it. The man is mainly a boxer, and swings for the
fences from the get go. Brian definitely
has the power to put Seth away or at least win him a few rounds, which is why I
think this could possibly be a great fight.
Overall, due to variation of attack and experience on the feet in the
UFC, I'd have to give the advantage to Seth.

Wrestling – Seth Baczynski likes to grapple, but he can't
always take it to the ground, and sports a somewhat measly 14% takedown
rate. He does however have a 50%
takedown defence rate, and is very comfortable fighting off his back, even
though that can end you up on the wrong side of a judge's decision.

Brian Melancon stands at 5'8, and
as a result is a complete powerhouse.
Whilst he does not have the most technical wrestling, he has the ability
to pick his opponents up and slam them on their heads. He also has some vicious ground striking,
which he has put past opponents away with.
I'd have to give the wrestling edge to Melancon, due to his power.

Jiu Jitsu - Baczynski
prefers to try and submit his opponents, with over half of his wins coming by
submission, and many through triangle chokes.
He has no problem fighting from the top or bottom, and has a good chance
to submit Melancon.

I don't know too much about
Melancon's BJJ skills, except that he is a purple belt under Ricco Rodriguez,
and has won a few grappling tournaments in Texas. I think his skills will be enough to survive
if he is on top of Seth, but I doubt he'll be submitting him. I'd have to give the BJJ advatange to Seth.

I think a 6'3 Seth will be able
to keep Brian on the outside, peppering him with his muay thai whilst using knees
and elbows on the inside. Brian will
tire out by the third round, and leave himself open for a triangle choke.

This is an intriguing matchup, in
which Dave Herman probably finds himself fighting for his job. His last matchup could be considered similar
to this one, and it did not bode well for him. Herman has been stating that jiu
jitsu does not work on him, and although he was submitted in his last fight by
an aging Nogueira, he has not changed his tone.
Gabriel Gonzaga is coming off a quick loss to Travis Browne, where he
was stopped by elbows on a takedown attempt.

Striking – Gabriel Gonzaga owns one of the most famous
knockouts in history, with his head kick stoppage of the famous kickboxing
champion, Mirko Flipovic. Gabriel is 34
years old, and his slowing down physically, but he obviously still possesses
stopping power in his strikes. He was however completely outworked
on the feet by Schaub, and seemed to want nothing to do with striking when
facing Ben Rothwell. I believe if
Gonzaga stays on the feet too long he will get clipped many times.

Dave Herman is an athletic
heavyweight, with some decent striking and power to boot. Most of his wins are by T(KO) and he does
utilise a variety of attacks.
Nevertheless, his striking defence is lacking, and he often moves
backwards in a straight line with his chin up instead of circling away. If he becomes overconfident in his striking he
will get tagged and likely submitted whilst in a daze. Neither of these guys are great strikers, but
I'd have to give the advantage to the younger and more athletic Dave Herman.

Wrestling – Gabriel Gonzaga has surprisingly good wrestling
statistics at hand, with a 79% average takedown defence, and a 49% takedown
offence. We can likely cancel out his
takedown defence as Dave won't be rushing to take this fight to the
ground. Gonzaga's wrestling offense is
becoming more predictable, and he lacks mixing up his approach to his
wrestling. In his fight against
Rothwell, Gonzaga dived for a leg every time Ben came to engage, yet still
landed 3 takedowns in the fight.

Dave Herman has succeeded in
every takedown he has attempted in the UFC, which is three. He was also taken down by Stefan Struve, Big
Nog and John-Olav Einemo. These three
fighters are not known for their takedown ability, and I do believe that
Gonzaga will also be able to take Herman down at some point. Due to this, I'd have to give the wrestling
advantage to Gonzaga, as he will be the one looking to take this to the ground,
whereas Herman will want to keep it standing.

Jiu Jitsu – Gabriel Gonzaga is a 4th degree black
belt in jiu jitsu, Mundials gold medallist and one of the top five Brazilian
Jiu Jitsu heavyweight specialists in the UFC.
He has nine wins by submission, and is very capable of submitting Dave
Herman given the slightest chance.

Dave Herman firmly denies the
efficiency of jiu jitsu, even though he was submitted in his last fight. What makes his statement more odd is the fact
that Dave Herman is three submission wins, one coming from a rare omoplata in
Bellator. Gonzaga definitely has the
advantage in this category.

I expect Herman to do well in the
first round, peppering Gonzaga with solid shots, but he will be hesitant to
follow Gonzaga to the floor if he knocks him down. I expect Gonzaga to eventually tag Herman,
take him down and grab a neck.

Edson Barboza is a Brazilian
star, who owns some of the most technical striking in the lightweight
division. He rebounded from his first
loss with a knockout win over Lucas Martin, and is looking to start a new
winning streak. Rafaello Oliviera has a
UFC record of 2-4, with his most recent losses being dominating stoppages. This is likely Oliviera's do or die fight for
the UFC, and if he gets knocked out he'll be sent packing to the lower leagues.

Striking – Edson Barboza is one of the best strikers in the division,
and loves to use his crisp combinations to keep guys on the outside. He has a devastating arsenal of kicks, from
damaging leg strikes, to spinning wheel kicks.
Fighters like Ross Pearson and Jamie Varner have shown that if you get
on the inside and throw heavy boxing combinations Barboza does not always
circle the right way out. I expect if
Oliviera tries rushing in, he will be knocked out.

Oliviera is not a great
striker. I guess that is all you really
need to know when he's fighting a man like Edson Barboza, but I'll supply you
with some facts. Oliviera is an orthodox
fighter, who owns three stoppages due to strikes, and has also been stopped
only once by strikes, but has been out worked on the feet by Andre Winner as
well. Whilst Oliviera is certainly no
Jake Shields on the feet, he will not want to be striking with Edson. The striking advantage goes to Edson Barboza.

Wrestling – Edson has completed four takedowns in the UFC,
but against fellow strikers. He gave up
two takedowns against Terry Etim, and two against Jamie Varner. I think Edson will be fast enough to avoid
takedowns in the first and second round, but if it goes to the third he may end
up on his back.

Rafaello has a 42% success rate
when it comes to takedowns which isn't bad, it's pretty average. His takedown defence is 11%, which is really
pretty awful, and he has only one submission win in his career off his back. Whilst his takedown offence will be enough to
drag down a tired Edson, I don't see him taking down a fresh Barboza. The wrestling advantage, surprisingly, goes
to the younger explosive Barboza.

Jiu Jitsu – Edson is a purple belt in BJJ, and obviously
prefers being on his feet. He did take
down Njokuani, and whilst Anthony is one of my favourite fighters, he is fairly
easy to control on the ground. Off his
back, Edson can keep a tight guard, and protect himself from damage, but won't
be throwing many triangle chokes and armbars from the bottom when fighting
Rafaello.

Rafaello Oliviera is a black belt
in BJJ, and has four submission wins in his career. He is certainly not amazing on the ground,
but definitely experienced enough to put Edson in bad places on the matt. The advantage goes to Oliviera for the jiu
jitsu.

I expect this fight to be a
fairly simple one for Barboza. He will
throw his jabs and leg kicks out there in the opening minutes, and then start
throwing combinations. He will probably end
up knocking him out in the opening round.

Norman Parke is looking to
improve his UFC record from his debut where he won The Ultimate Fighter Smashes
in a lacklustre performance. Norman is
an incredible talent on the ground, and is not afraid to attack any area of the
body with submission locks. Kazuki
Tokudome made his debut in March, winning a decision against Jiu Jitsu specialist
Cristiano Marcello, and has a fairly well rounded game.

Striking – Norman has good boxing and good defence. In his fight against Fletcher he showed that
he can deal with a long limbed fighter, and can time his strikes in order to
get the fight to the ground. Norman has
hurt a few opponents and proceeded to take their neck, but he does own three
stoppages via strikes.

Kazuki Tokudome isn't a fantastic
striker by any means, but does have good enough boxing to provide Norman with
problems on the feet. He landed the same
amount of strikes as Cristiano Marcello in his fight, and only outworked the
BJJ technician on the ground, but I'd put this down to UFC jitters. I'd have to rule this area even, as Tokudome
has looked good on the feet, but against weaker competition, and has also been
finished by strikes.

Wrestling – Norman has very strong takedowns and takedown
defence, and on the regional circuit rarely ended up fighting on the bottom
when he didn't want to. He dominated
Colin Fletcher in the wrestling front, even though he was the smaller man. I think Tokudome is not a big enough 155er to
stop Norman from taking him down, but I don't necessarily think he will have
to, as Norman could really be looking for a knockout in this fight.

Tokudome has some decent
takedowns and judo trips, which he has utilised in his career, and has quick
hips and reactions to takedowns himself.
From the clinch he can randomly end up in side control, but I doubt he'd
get their against Norman. I'd have to
give the advantage to Norman here, as he can time his takedowns very well
against the 'forward coming' Tokudome.

Jiu Jitsu – Norman has incredible skills on the ground, and
will be looking to attack every limb of Kazuki.
From guard, Norman will pound Tokudome until he is able to pass, and
ultimately has the ability to give the Japanese fighter his first submission
loss.

Kazuki showed great ground skills
in his last fight against Marcello, when he stifled Cristiano's guard attacks,
and made passes of his own. Tokudome
will probably want to keep this fight standing, but if he is taken down, he may
be able to get up and make the fight interesting. The BJJ advantage goes to Parke, the man has
thirteen wins by submission, with a variety of locks.

Norman Parke defeats Kazuki Tokudome via unanimous decision

Chris 'The Crippler' Leben vs Andrew 'Highlight' Craig

A potential fight of the night
candidate matches tough men Chris Leben and Andrew Craig. Chris is coming off
an incredibly boring performance against Derek Brunson where he was pinned down
for most of the fight, and gassed after the first round. Andrew Craig is coming off is first loss from
Ronny Markes, where he was simply outclassed on the ground.

Striking – Chris Leben has explosive power with his punches,
but not much technique. He does utilise
muay thai, but when he loses himself in the fight he turns into a windmill of
destruction. He has several comeback
wins, and really just needs one time to touch someone's chin to win a fight. He likes to stand toe to toe, but does avoid
54% of strikes thrown at him.

Andrew Craig also has an
incredible chin, and at times enjoys a brawl.
He also has power in his strikes, and uses muay thai when thinking with
calculated strategy, as you could see in his fight against Natal. Craig only has a 44% striking rate, and his
striking defence is pretty low at 37%.
When you're getting hit by roughly 65% of Chris Leben's strikes, you're
not going to have a good day. I'd have
to give the stand-up edge to Leben.

Wrestling – Chris Leben is able to take his fights to the
ground, and also keep it off the ground.
He's pretty average wrestler, but does have some nice trips and throws
from the clinch position. Chris also has
some explosive ground and pound, and his heavy hands can end the night on the
ground, or set-up a submission.

Andrew Craig is not a great wrestler,
but his composure could help him takedown Chris Leben if he survives in the
later rounds. Andrew Craig has only
landed one of takedown attempts, and has been taken down seven times in his
last three fights. I'll have to leave
the wrestling as even, Chris looked pretty terrible in his last fight in the
wrestling department, and if he is still rusty Craig will be able to take him
down.

Jiu Jitsu – Chris Leben is a BJJ blue belt, and holds five
wins by submission. He showed he had a
dangerous guard when he submitted Akiyama by triangle choke, but in his other
fights he has shown to vulnerable off his back.

Andrew Craig is a brown belt in
BJJ under Travis Tooke, who is a great jiu jitsu coach. In tournaments I have seen Craig hit the
brabo choke a few times, and has shown he has quite a good top game. He was completely outworked by Ronny Markes
on the ground, but I'd say Ronny is better than Brunson. I'd have to give the BJJ edge to Craig.

The thing that still stands out
to me if Andrew's poor striking defence combined with poor takedown
offence. That combination just spells
trouble to me against a powerhouse like Leben.