The Eurosceptic revolution: much ado about nothing?

The success of eurosceptic parties at the 2014 European elections was
expected to mark a paradigm shift in both national and European politics. As
the dust begins to settle, the eurosceptic wave may not be the catalyst for
change many feared or hoped for.

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The
success of eurosceptic parties at the 2014 European elections was expected to
mark a paradigm shift in both national and European politics. As the dust
begins to settle, the eurosceptic wave may not be the catalyst for change many
feared or hoped for. Out of 751 seats in the European parliament, only 140
belong to parties of Eurosceptic inclination, which have so far split four
ways.

The
biggest group, championed by Nigel Farage of UKIP (24 seats), is the Europe of
Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD) counting among its rows 48 convinced
Eurosceptic parliamentarians, followed by the far more eurocritical than
eurosceptical European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL, 52 seats) and
the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR, 70 seats), respectively left
and right of the political spectrum. Last but not least, the 21 French Front
National parliamentarians and a handful of Hungarian Jobbik and Greek Golden
Dawn parliamentarians remain unaligned. [1]

Le
Pen’s failure in creating a political group at the European level despite a
crushing victory at home, was the first sign of the hard times that lay ahead for
Eurosceptic parties in Brussels. The cracks also begin to show as parties
continue to reshuffle reflecting the unease with which Eurosceptic groups are
attempting to navigate through a fairly hostile environment. UKIP has refused
to ally with the likes of Front National, while it has agreed to cooperate with
the Italian Five Star Movement (17 seats).[2] ln the meantime, less than
2 months after the forming of the EFDD group, the True Finns (PS, 2 seats)[3] faction has split away and
jumped ship to join the ECR together with the Alternative for Germany (AfD, 7
seats).[4]

The
agenda of these various anti-establishment movements certainly has at its core
a set of shared concerns: immigration, loss of sovereignty, loss of national
identity and economic hardship, all of which it blames on the EU. Beyond these
four axes, though, it becomes more arduous for eurosceptic political groupings to
identify common ground around which to build consensus.[5] Indeed, eurosceptic parties
more often than not possess conflicting conceptions, born out of ideological
differences. If we consider economic and monetary policies, both the UKIP and
the Five Star Movement accuse European austerity policies to be one of the main
causes of the crisis, however while UKIP endorses free market policies, the
Five Star Movement, instead, backs a socio economic model and greater
cooperation between nation state and citizens.[6] Similarly the eurocritical
ECR, recently split internally over Lithuania’s adoption of the euro, as Alternative
for Germany cast its vote against the group’s position.[7] In contrast to the ECR’s
“eurorealism” on the need for promoting a “general health of the European economy”, AfD believes that in order to be
competitive, the
eurozone should expel southern and eastern countries.

The
Euroscpetic wave might be pushing mainstream pro-Europe parties towards greater
cooperation. The right wing European People’s Party (EPP), the right-leaning
Alliance for Liberal Democrats of Europe (ALDE) and the left wing Socialists and
Democrats (S&D) have so far shared a similar position 85.5% of the time
when voting an EP resolution, compared to 66.5% registered in the previous
term.[8]

Until
now, they seem to be also more effective in building their internal consensus
and thus achieving high level of voting loyalty. For example, while the EFDD
shows 45.39% of internal cohesion the EPP has 96%, ALDE 93% and S&D 87,45%.[9] ALDE has been on the
winning side of EU Parliamentary votes 92.3% of the time, followed by S&D (86.59%)
and the EPP (82.5%). Much further down the line, the EFDD and GUE-NGL have so far mustered 41% of “victories”. [10] Breaking down these figures reveals that ALDE,
EPP and S&D together with the eurocritical ECR have, at the time of writing,
won 100% of the resolutions voted on economic and monetary affairs. On
employment and social affairs instead the mainstream block has been more
divided allowing the EFDD and the GUE-NGL to achieve a higher percentage of
victories (53%) and possibly revealing the initial stages of an interesting
alignment between the policy orientation of EFDD with the Greens and the
GUE-NGL with the S&D. [11]

The
above percentages demonstrate the weight that parties such as ALDE, S&D and
EPP are able to exert, both through higher voting loyalty and through a greater
ability and predisposition towards majority building across political groups.
Fairly telling is the “nominal power vs actual power” indicator. With 140 seats
the Eurosceptics have undoubtedly acquired unprecedented nominal power within
the Parliament. Yet, due to internal divisions, their actual power is more
limited than expected. While the EPP, S&D and ALDE’s actual power is
averagely estimated at a good 2% above their nominal power (EPP 4.08%, S&D
1.64%,ALDE 0.95%), the statistic crushes the EFDD which, possessing a nominal
power of 6.37% , manages to exert an actual power of barely over 3%.[12]

That
said, the dice have not fallen, with only few Parliamentary resolutions voted
so far the game of coalition building and negotiations has only just begun. The
spirit of adaptation of Eurosceptic parties will very much define the legacy
that this Parliament will leave to its successors. Nevertheless, for the moment
being, the Eurosceptic revolutionaries appear slightly more akin to a
disruptive presence, blocking Europe’s speedy path on an already crowded
sidewalk.

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