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Fired, furloughed or locked out - what are the odds?

Federal workers are different things to different people. At times — like
when you get mail during a snowstorm or avoid bad weather in a long flight, or
have your property, or life, saved by a firefighter — feds can be heroes.

At other times, like when you get a midyear letter from the IRS, the
hero thing disappears.

Some people see feds as protectors and defenders. Others see a sea
of bureaucrats anxious to preserve and extend the Nanny State.

To some politicians jockeying for advantage or reelection, civil servants
are chips in a very high-stakes poker game.

August and September are traditionally the time when politicians, pundits
and number-crunchers play poker using popular federal programs and (currently)
unpopular federal workers as chips.

In addition to the threat of a government shutdown, there is the
as-yet-unknown impact of a second year of sequestration-triggered reductions and
the possibility of further defense cuts — all being considered even as
politicians sift through various military options against Syria.

There is shutdown talk because some members of Congress —
mainly Republicans in the House — want to delay or kill off portions of the
Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). Many experts say a shutdown is unlikely. Many
of the same experts said it couldn't happen in the winter of 1995-96. Except it
did.

Sequestration only kicked in a few months ago, in March. But it
resulted in more than half the federal workforce being furloughed one or two days
per pay period. That prompted a tidal wave of requests for interest-free $1,000
loans that swamped the Federal Employees Education and Assistance Fund's
resources. FEEA is a feds-helping-feds charity that also receives large corporate
donations from GEICO, Blue Cross-Blue Shield, LTC Partners and others.

The largest and most lengthy number of furloughs naturally hit the
biggest — and most visible to the public — agencies like Defense, the
Internal Revenue Service and Housing and Urban Development. The tiny Merit
Systems Protection Board is flooded with the equivalent of several thousand
why-me? furlough appeals for each of its workers. Congress has been off duty all
month and won't return until after Labor Day. If it resumes its normal three-day
(Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) schedule that will give it about 12 days to do
something, or nothing, before the start of the fiscal year.

The most recent card on the table is from a Defense planning
document obtained by Bloomberg News. It indicated that Defense
could be forced to RIF (fire) 6,272 workers. Most of the employees are with the
Defense Contract Management Agency (1,500). Army would eliminate 2,100 slots (with
real people in them) and Navy would deep-six 2,672 people.

Note: Two inside-baseball notes about politics, and the media in
Washington.

In the media, when we get a tip or story, it is a major scoop.
When another news organization (in this case Bloomberg) beats us all and gets a
good story, it is considered a leak!

A document that said Defense might have to fire at least 6,000
employees is one thing. But as Pentagon planners learned during the Vietnam
years, using precise numbers — like at least 6,272 — rather than
saying "around 6,000" seems to give it more weight with the public and press.

We won't know what's going to happen until it happens. But the
impact of each potential threat — whether it is a shutdown, more furloughs
or layoffs — will be different. And the cost to you, as a taxpayer and a
federal worker, will be different depending on which course of action the
politicians take. Or simply let happen.

OPM pushes telework for March on
Washington anniversary
The Office of Personnel Management is pushing federal agencies to allow their
employees to telework Wednesday to help ease traffic congestion stemming from the
50th anniversary celebration of the March on Washington. The federal government
will remain open on Aug. 28.