Martin Seligman's book Learned Optimism also goes into this. Optimists believe that they have far more control over what happens than they actually do. Pessimists are more realistic. However, Optimists do better than Pessimists in life. There is an online test that gauges your relative optimism and pessimism for those interested.posted by sien at 6:58 PM on April 6, 2005

From the first article:But increasingly, attention is being paid to decision-making in the corporate realm. Because of their training and experience, managers might be presumed to be less likely to use mental shortcuts, and less vulnerable to cognitive biases.

Ha, this author has a sly sense of humor! That's laugh out loud funny.

OK, Dilbert aside, this is an interesting article.posted by teece at 7:43 PM on April 6, 2005

Zeigarnik's story reminds me of Malcolm Gladwell (I know, I know...), who wrote Blink after his long hair earned him speeding tickets and suspicious looks. Next time something minor pisses me off, I hope I can write a book.posted by NickDouglas at 8:30 PM on April 6, 2005

So which of the Wikipedia citations, and there are probably a number, account for the voting behavior of Americans in the last US general election. Yes I know this is sort of a troll but I also believe that the Republicans have successfully tapped into a deep well of this stuff.posted by Danf at 8:37 PM on April 6, 2005

Danf your totally right. The Learned Optimism book has quite a bit about politics. In particular it shows that politicians who make positive statements do much bettter.

In the last election, Kerry had to say 'Iraq is a disaster' and 'the twin deficits are a problem' which is a very negative message whereas Bush went around talking about how bringing Democracy to the Middle East was succeeding and was a good idea.posted by sien at 8:51 PM on April 6, 2005

Danf your totally right. The Learned Optimism book has quite a bit about politics. In particular it shows that politicians who make positive statements do much bettter.

Which is probably why we are often so quick to cry "chicken little!" when someone presents us with a bad news prediction.

We don't want to believe bad shit is coming our way. Sadly, sometimes that really is a freight train, not the light at the end of the tunnel.

Probably plays an effect in things like Enron, too, where legions of accountants and analysts were all saying "this company is the future!" while the voices raising concern were rare and not welcome. (Although that is not all that is at play there, there's a big helping of criminal fraud in multiple industries, too.)posted by teece at 9:28 PM on April 6, 2005

We don't want to believe bad shit is coming our way. Sadly, sometimes that really is a freight train, not the light at the end of the tunnel. Probably plays an effect in things like Enron, too, where legions of accountants and analysts were all saying "this company is the future!" while the voices raising concern were rare and not welcome.

Optimists believe that they have far more control over what happens than they actually do. Pessimists are more realistic. However, Optimists do better than Pessimists in life.

But how much of that is optimists being lucky? Couldn't it be luck > getting more of what you want > belief that this is under your control > optimism, instead of optimism > belief > doing well?

There is, of course an element of convincing people of your bullshit because you believe it so thoroughly, but I'm not convinced. Of course, I didn't RTFA because it's late, so forgive me if the doubts are thoroughly laid to rest somewhere.posted by dame at 10:30 PM on April 6, 2005

Lalalalalalala -- I'm not listening.

Please don't ruin that microbiologists conspiracy theory for me, it was (*is*, dammit!) one of the best out there.posted by krisjohn at 10:40 PM on April 6, 2005

So you're all saying that my omnipresent pessimism is a *good* thing?posted by PurplePorpoise at 10:40 PM on April 6, 2005

The confirmation bias is the cognitive bias that I think you are talking about.

So many biases, so little time ...posted by teece at 10:42 PM on April 6, 2005

This essay from Quackwatch seems germain to this thread. Granted, Steven Barrett has had his detractors and I agree with posters to that MeFi thread that he overreaches when he complains about alternatives to White Man's Medicine® but in my job, and in my life as a flaming moderate, it's been a good resource.posted by Danf at 7:43 AM on April 7, 2005

Nice set of links. Thanks.

Oh, and I do make bad decisions.posted by OmieWise at 7:55 AM on April 7, 2005

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