311 posts from October 2012

October 31, 2012

The early vote and absentee ballot data (EV/AB) is in, and it shows that Democrats on the fourth day of voting in-person voting extended their lead over total Republican ballots cast by about 48,600**.

In all, Democrats edged Republicans by 118,000 early vote ballots, but Republicans extended their absentee-vote lead to more than 69,000.

Nearly 2.7 million ballots have been cast out of a total 12 million registered voters, 75 percent of whom will probably vote. That means about 30 percent of the ballots are already in.

There's a dispute between the Republican and Democratic parties about what the numbers all mean. Republicans claim Democrats in 2008 were up by a total of 134,000 ballots at this time (four days into early voting). That number does seem high, and the Democrats say it's not true and that Republicans are playing fast and loose with the numbers.

It is true that total early voting is down by Dems from 134,000 to about 118,00 four days in. But that's not the net EVAB number. That's just early voting. And one of the reasons for the decline is that Democrats have shifted some of their early voters in 08 to being absentee-ballot voters in 2012. And Democrats have closed the big AB gap with the GOP by about two thirds since 08.

President Obama, however, clearly has a problem in the polls. They show him winning the early vote, however he's losing independents. About 450,000 have already cast ballots and they account for about 20 percent of the electorate.

Either way, Democrats are still up. A lead is a lead. But can they keep it through Election Day?

The totals for EV

Party

EV
total

%

Dem

517,909

47%

Rep

399,687

36%

Ind

182,016

17%

Total

1,099,612

For AB

Party

AB
total

%

Rep

686,671

44%

Dem

617,053

39%

Ind

264,691

17%

Total

1,568,415

Cumulative:

Party

Total

%

Dem

1,134,962

43%

Rep

1,086,358

41%

Ind

446,707

17%

Total

2,668,027

Note: The numbers might be slightly different later in the day when updates are posted. Lafayette County didn't post its data this morning

Three Florida Supreme Court justices up for merit retention votes are being
opposed by conservatives, who argue that the justices have displayed liberal
philosophies in their decisions. It doesn’t help that the justices -- R. Fred
Lewis, 64, Barbara Pariente, 63, and Peggy Quince, 64 -- were all appointed by
Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles, although Republican Gov. Jeb Bush also had a hand
in selecting Quince.

The
question is: Are these justices too activist and how can you tell?

While about 80 percent of all the court’s decisions are unanimous,
conservative groups and the Republican Party of Florida -- which are opposing
retention of the justices -- point to specific cases where they say members of
the state Supreme Court crossed the line.

The Times/Herald Tallahassee bureau looked into nine specific examples cited
by opponents of the justices as judicial activism so you can see the case, how
the seven-member court ruled and, when there was dissent, why justices
disagreed.

Polls are all over the map. RealClearPolics average puts it at Romney + 1.3 pecent n F. Pollster.com average has Fla 48-48. The latest from Democrats' Mellman group:

This analysis represents the findings of a statewide
survey of the likely November 2012 Florida electorate using a
registration-based sample including cellphones and landlines. Eight
hundred (800 interviews were conducted in English and Spanish October
24-27. The margin of error for the whole sample is +/-3.4% at a 95%
level of confidence and higher for subgroups depending upon size.

Our latest poll shows President Obama gaining momentum in
Florida and now leading Mitt Romney 49% to 47%, with the pool of
undecided voters shrinking to just 4%. Among the 29% who have already
cast their ballot, the President received the support of over
half—topping Romney 51% to 47%. Last week the President was tied with
his challenger.

From Quinnipiac University (whose survey came under instant fire from Republicans saying it oversampled Democrats. More here on that refrain):

Increased support from women likely voters helps Gov. Mitt Romney narrow the gap with President Barack Obama in Florida and Virginia, leaving these key swing states too close to call, while the president holds a 5-point lead in Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Swing State poll released today.

By wide margins, voters in each state say President Obama cares about their needs and problems more than Gov. Romney, but the Republican is seen as a leader by more voters.

On who is better able to fix the economy, 49 percent of Florida voters pick Romney, with 47 percent for Obama; 49 percent of Ohio voters pick Obama, with 48 percent for Romney, and 50 percent of Virginia voters pick Romney, with 46 percent for Obama.

“After being subjected to what seems like a zillion dollars’ worth of television ads and personal attention from the two candidates reminiscent of a high-school crush, the key swing states of Florida and Virginia are too close to call with the election only days away,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “President Barack Obama clings to a 5-point lead in Ohio, but Gov. Mitt Romney has narrowed the president’s lead that existed in Florida and Virginia before the first debate.”

There's a sense of worry among Palm Beach County Republicans. They're not just outnumbered 44-29 percent by Democrats. The Democrats are "cleaning our clocks" in both early and absentee ballots, according to a GOP email obtained by WPTV.

The Democrat-over-Republican spread: 54-27 percent as of yesterday morning. That's about 30,000 ballots. And there's a good chance that margin could be even bigger after another day of early voting.

October 30, 2012

Call it the Cuban Conundrum — a problem for pollsters who find Florida Hispanics are far more Republican than anywhere else in the nation.

It’s on full display in the latest Florida International University/Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely Hispanic Florida voters showing President Barack Obama clings to a narrow 51-47 percent lead over Republican Mitt Romney.

But nationwide, the poll shows, Obama leads by a far bigger margin among likely Hispanic voters.

Not only are Cubans reliable Republican voters — they’re about 70 percent of Miami-Dade’s registered Republicans — but they’re also more likely to answer surveys like the FIU poll.

“Cuban-American voters pick up the phone and answer. They want to be heard,” said Eduardo Gamarra, an FIU professor of Latin American studies who conducted the poll with his political research firm, the Newlink Group.

CNN today reported that President Obama's Florida team believes there's a direct correlation between Hispanic voter turnout and the campaign's chances in Florida:

"If President Barack Obama wins Florida, it will be thanks to an increase in Hispanic voters, according to leaders of the president's campaign in the state," CNN said.

"One week before Election Day and three days into early voting in the ever important battleground, Obama's Sunshine State director Ashley Walker told reporters during a pen and pad briefing that early turnout among Hispanics is up 50% from 2008 due to an increase in registration and enthusiasm in the community."

Here's what wasn't apparently mentioned: Obama's Hispanic numbers don't appear to be that rosy in Florida.

Public Policy Polling, a firm that typically surveys for Democrats, found that Obama was actually losing the Florida Hispanic vote 46-54 to Republican Mitt Romney. But it doesn't poll in Spanish, and the sample size was small. Two Mason-Dixon polls this weekend had mixed news for Obama. It showed him up 56-37 percent in the crucial I-4 corridor, but he was down 19-76 percent among Cuban voters in Miami-Dade. And they're amped to vote, casting about 44 percent of the 134,000 absentee ballots that have been mailed in so far.

Then there's SurveyUSA, which doesn't poll in Spanish like PPP, that showed Obama up over Romney among Hispanics in Florida, 58-32.

If the numbers are all over the place, there's a reason for it: The Florida Hispanic vote is not monolithic. Survey in one area (like Cuban-heavy South Florida or Puerto Rican-heavy Central Florida) and your poll can move right or left.

Remember four years ago, when the candidates actually talked
about a national catastrophic reinsurance fund to spread the risk of natural
disasters across state lines, provide a cushion for reinsurance and make
insuring disasters more affordable?

The concept, which first came to life after Hurricane Andrew
devastated Miami
in 1992, emerged again after the seven-hurricanes of 2004 and 2005. Then-Sen.
Barack Obama and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani embraced the idea.

A group of
U.S. House members, including then-Reps. Ron Klein, a Democrat, and Ginny
Brown-Waite, a Republican, won support for a plan to create a voluntary
catastrophe fund modeled after Florida’s Hurricane Catastrophe Fund.