Fed: time to determine the value of the USD

13:29 25.09.2018

The Federal Reserve is anticipated to be one of the most aggressive major central banks when it gets to the monetary policy. While some banks have only started to discuss tapering of the extra monetary stimulus and others raised the interest rate 1-2 times, the Fed is expected to increase its rate 4 times this year. The Federal Reserve will release the federal funds rate at 21:00 MT time and hold the press conference at 21:30 MT time on September 26.

The probability of the September rate hike is near 100%. It means that the market is pretty sure in the outcome of the meeting. As a result, the Fed’s decision won’t affect the USD unless the Fed keeps the rate on hold (that is unlikely). If the central bank actually kept the rate unchanged, the USD would crash. But what will affect the direction of the US dollar is the FOMC statement. It will be the third rate hike this year and the market wants another one in December. If the Fed gives clues on the fourth hike, the USD will rise. If the Fed is cautious because of various economic, trade and political risks, the USD will plunge.

On Thursday, the major US currency rebounded from its unexpected dive following dismal economic data that sparked fears about the strength of the American economy and also backed the Fed’s intention to leave rates on hold in the nearer future…

On Tuesday, the euro tacked on because market participants waited for reports on inflation and growth in the euro zone, while the Japanese yen went down after Japan’s major bank told it would be more flexible in its huge stimulus program…

On Tuesday, the evergreen buck dived because the common currency bounced off and the UK pound managed to ascend to the day’s maximums reacting to reports that British Prime Minister Theresa May is going to take control of Brexit talks…