Brian Kelly was trying to explain the transformation, delicately dissecting the whys and hows of winning and losing at Notre Dame when finally, he laid it out with simplicity.

“Look, there’s a fine line between a five-loss team and an unbeaten team,” Kelly said. “There isn’t much of a tangible difference between the 2011 and 2012 teams.”

Except this: one lost five games, the other went unbeaten and played for the national championship.

That fine line, coaches say year after year, is more razor thin than one can imagine. In the 15 years of the BCS, five teams followed a four-loss (or more) season with a national championship season.

It began with Oklahoma in 2000 (lost five games in 1999), and includes Ohio State in 2002 (lost five in 2001), LSU in 2003 (lost five in 2002), Florida in 2008 (lost four in 2007) and Auburn in 2010 (lost five in 2009).

If that’s not enough proof, consider this: Had Ohio State been eligible for the postseason (and had it won the Big Ten Championship Game), the seven-loss Buckeyes from 2011 would’ve likely played the five-loss Irish from 2011 in the national championship game.

Here are the top five-loss teams in 2012 that could play for next season's national championship:

Miami (7-5 in 2012): A huge, NCAA-induced disclaimer: If the Canes are placed on postseason probation for violations committed by former players with booster Nevin Shapiro, this is obviously a moot point.

But if two years of self postseason bans by the university reduce the impact of the looming sanctions and the Canes are eligible in 2013, this team is talented enough—and plays in a winnable conference—it could sneak into Pasadena.

The Canes won the Coastal Division (but gave it up with self probation), and could have won three of the five games they lost. The bad news: The two other losses were by a combined 77 points to Kansas State and Notre Dame.

Quarterback Stephen Morris returns, as does dynamic freshman TB Duke Johnson and wideout Phillip Dorsett. The lines of scrimmage will be experienced and strong, and going unbeaten in the ACC (with a big non-conference win over Florida) is a must. No ACC team will advance to the BCS National Championship Game with a loss.

Michigan (8-5 in 2012): Those five losses are deceiving on a number of fronts. First and foremost, Michigan proved it can play with the elite of the nation when it nearly beat South Carolina in the Outback Bowl.

Only a handful of unthinkable plays—on both offense and defense—by the Gamecocks kept the Wolverines from entering 2013 with a ton of momentum. As it is, there is this: Michigan finally can focus on a complete, balanced offense now that Devin Gardner is the full-time quarterback and the temptation of giving Denard Robinson as many touches as possible is gone.

Gardner was the quarterback former coach Rich Rodriguez wanted to build his offense around, comparing him to Pat White as a complete runner and thrower. Gardner played well in the second half of the season, and Michigan’s offense will only get more multiple and more balanced with each repetition Gardner gets in practices and games.

The lines of scrimmage are physical, and the balance on offense will allow Michigan to do what it wants to do: control the game by controlling tempo and playing defense. This team isn’t that far away, and if coach Brady Hoke continues to recruit well, Michigan have the best chance of this group of five to reach the championship game.

Mississippi (7-6 in 2012): Laugh now, people. But why not Ole Miss? This is the same Ole Miss team that played the Tide as well as LSU, Texas A&M and Georgia did.

The same Ole Miss team that should have beaten Texas A&M, but blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter and lost by three. The same Ole Miss team that blew a fourth-quarter lead at LSU and lost by six.

The same Ole Miss team that returns a majority of its starters next fall, and the same team that has learned to win in the big bad SEC. And finally: the same Ole Miss team that can – here’s the key – afford to lose a game and still get to the BCS National Championship Game because of the conference it plays in.

Oklahoma State (8-5 in 2012): What looked like a big step back after a 12-win season in 2011 really wasn’t that at all.

In fact, coach Mike Gundy took the first step in rectifying the problem when he fired defensive coordinator Bill Young and promoted linebackers coach Glenn Spencer to run the defense.

In all five of the Cowboys’ losses, poor play on defense—players out of position, bad tackling—was the main factor in five winnable games. In the five losses, Oklahoma State scored 38, 36, 30, 48 and 34 points—and lost three of those games by a combined 15 points.

UCLA (9-5 in 2012): There’s no other way to say it: The Bruins blew the Pac-12 Championship Game against Stanford, then tanked in the Holiday Bowl against Baylor because they had zero desire to be there (after losing out on the Rose Bowl.

That’s part of the culture coach Jim Mora is still changing. This team still must learn to play hard week after week, and not give up weeks (and games) because they can’t stay focused (bad losses to Oregon State, Cal and Baylor).

Quarterback Brett Hundley is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, and the Bruins have proven (when motivated) they can play with the elite of the Pac-12. Another year of Mora and his staff’s impressive recruiting will bring more impact players, and LB Anthony Barr’s decision to stay for his senior season was huge for a defense that—again, when motivated—was much better than it showed in three straight losses to end the season.