Awwww... so chivalrous, defending sky_fly. I don't think anyone is saying Wagner could easily win grand prix events. But the likelihood of that, IMO, is greater than the likelihood of Gold winning all her GP events and the GPF, unless she magically transforms during the summer (although, similarly, Wagner could also do the same this summer, like how she unexpectedly brought back the 3-3 last season and was actually landing it on the GP).

right because even a mistake prone Gracie placed ahead of Wagner
a GP titles for Gracie is fare more likely than Wagner even winning one, younger girls than her have 3-3s so her tumbling PCS wont make up for it
Edmunds will beat her anyways so qualifying for GPF is very questionable for Wagner

right because even a mistake prone Gracie placed ahead of Wagner
a GP titles for Gracie is fare more likely than Wagner even winning one, younger girls than her have 3-3s so her tumbling PCS wont make up for it
Edmunds will beat her anyways so qualifying for GPF is very questionable for Wagner

Gracie can easily win and qualify to GPF

A mistake? wasn't even only a fall, She did very poorly, She looked uncomfortable on the ice and She still placed higher than Wagner and many others, She was a top skater with many mistakes, so that's good! She only need mental strength and She will do great next season! and Yeah I do agree She can easily win a GP and qualify to GPF. The talent is there.

right because even a mistake prone Gracie placed ahead of Wagner
a GP titles for Gracie is fare more likely than Wagner even winning one, younger girls than her have 3-3s so her tumbling PCS wont make up for it
Edmunds will beat her anyways so qualifying for GPF is very questionable for Wagner

Gracie can easily win and qualify to GPF

You said the same last season. Just like you said she'll contend for gold in Sochi against Kim, and easily win at least silver at Worlds.

Well, Gold should certainly improve on her 3rd and 4th and failure to qualify for the GPF last season.

right because even a mistake prone Gracie placed ahead of Wagner
a GP titles for Gracie is fare more likely than Wagner even winning one, younger girls than her have 3-3s so her tumbling PCS wont make up for it
Edmunds will beat her anyways so qualifying for GPF is very questionable for Wagner

Gracie can easily win and qualify to GPF

No need to worry about CSG. He is the one who:

1. Crowed right up until the day before the dance competition that Bobrova & Soloviev were a total lock for the bronze (and he has the balls to even try and mock me for predicting almost a year earlier W&P would win the bronze, which atleast I had the common sense to back down from long before the Games).

2. Predicted Osmond to be top 5 and a medal contender by Sochi.

3. Said after Trophee de France that a clean Hanyu would get crushed by a clean Chan for sure, that his PCS cap was about 85 points in the LP and his max LP score was something in the 180-185 range.

4. Said Wagner was going to easily mantain U.S #1 status over Gold for the rest of the year after the grand prix.

5. Said Suzuki was a real strong medal contender for Sochi. Said the same before worlds last year where she finished 11th.

6. Said after the grand prix final Hanyu would never get scores or PCS like that outside of Japan.

7. Said before the Games a clean Duhamel & Radford would win the bronze even had everyone skated cleanly (aka they would be beating the almost 220 point total Stolbova & Klimov put up had they gone clean, since a clean S&S beating S&K is certain).

My predictions for this season (which given my history those of you with differing hopes might as well resign yourself to now, as I always end up right on something I feel strongly enough to declare):

1. Despite my thus far perfect prediction of Chan and his 5+ fall margin over the field which has made him the most controversial and hated skating champion in history bar none, his luck has run out, and he will end his career with a 3rd or 4th place finish in Sochi. [WRONG]

2. Weaver & Poje (I even started a thread about this a few months ago) are going to have their best year yet, win the bronze in Sochi and the GPF, win their first ever grand prix assignment, and win a medal at Worlds. [WRONG]

3. Volosozhar & Trankov will not only win everything (admitedly an all too easy prediction) but gain the respect from fans they have not yet gotten in the process. They will also change their mind on their current plans to retire post Sochi and will continue on, despite the OGM. [WRONG]

4. Kim will easily win her 2nd OGM (and no this is not a safe prediction, as there are alot of Asada, Kostner, and Gold homers who seem certain said skater will win instead). [WRONG]

5. Wagner will win a medal at atleast one of the Olympics and Worlds. [WRONG]

6. Ando's comeback will go nowhere, and she will not make the Japanese Olympic team. [CORRECT, such a bold prediction! ]

Feel free to bump if I even get a single of these wrong. As usual I wont.

Just felt the need to put that up there, if you're going to try to bash me when it comes to predictions.

Oooh, perhaps you might do better predicting next season and get TWO out of 6 correct instead of 1 out of 6!!

I still feel a CLEAN Chan can beat a clean Hanyu. Perhaps I've been eating too many mushrooms but Chan has better skating skills. He just needs a good coach and decent music that a man would skate to! Bring back Aranguez!!!

Dai will retire. Caro hopefully will retire.

I think Max Aaron will fade into oblivion and go back to his pre-Nats win skating....lots of promise and no consistency! Joshua Ferris and Jason Brown are the future of US Men's skating. Both have amazing charisma (and if you doubt that about Josh check out his SOI performance - it's pure entertainment) and both have amazing technical skills as well as performance skills.

I can never keep up with all the pairs and dance because people use just initials and it takes too much effort to figure out who they're talking about. It's like reading alphabet soup.

The one genre I worry about is US Pairs. It's virtually non-existent. I think Castelli and Schnapir will never be able to compete effectively on the international level. They just don't have that "wow" factor. Duhamel and Radford hit me the same way - very physical but not very charismatic or eye-popping. US pairs are in a world of hurt!!!

eta: I realize Duhamel is Canadian - worded that last paragraph awkwardly. Meant to say that D and R (see, I can do it too) effect me the same way the C and S do - not at all!!!!!

I wouldnt say it is impossible but it would be hard. Hanyu would have won the short program in Sochi even had Chan done a clean 3axel, and that is where they have identical difficulty. You then move to the long and Hanyu has 8 points higher base value, when Hanyu obviously atleast has a chance even in the short where they have the same. Hanyu now gets close to the same PCS (yes CSG even outside of Japan ), if both skate their best will likely win out on GOE, or atleast Chan certainly wont gain any points back there, and the projected base value edge is much more than the PCS gap the judges have them at now.

At the very least even if Chan "could" beat a clean Hanyu (and I agree it isnt impossible, although if Hanyu improves further it could become so), the previous suggestion Hanyu couldnt dream of coming anywhere near or beating a clean Chan was obviously off the rocker, and that is all that matters.

I wouldnt say it is impossible but it would be hard. Hanyu would have won the short program in Sochi even had Chan done a clean 3axel, and that is where they have identical difficulty. You then move to the long and Hanyu has 8 points higher base value, when Hanyu obviously atleast has a chance even in the short where they have the same. Hanyu now gets close to the same PCS (yes CSG even outside of Japan ), if both skate their best will likely win out on GOE, or atleast Chan certainly wont gain any points back there, and the projected base value edge is much more than the PCS gap the judges have them at now.

At the very least even if Chan "could" beat a clean Hanyu (and I agree it isnt impossible, although if Hanyu improves further it could become so), the previous suggestion Hanyu couldnt dream of coming anywhere near or beating a clean Chan was obviously off the rocker, and that is all that matters.

This is what I was thinking after GPF, why, why PChan changed absolutely NOTHING in his program for Olympics after Hanyu outscored him about 5 points technically despite falling quad salchow. 8 points in BV at the start is huge, and he can't make so much back in PCS if both would be on their top.

This is what I was thinking after GPF, why, why PChan changed absolutely g NOTHING in his program for Olympics after Hanyu outscored him about 5 points technically despite falling quad salchow. 8 points in BV at the start is huge, and he can't make so much back in PCS if both would be on their top.

Probably since he is coached by an ice dance women who knows nothing about technical jumps, and was struggling to just find consistency with the difficulty he already has. Pretty hard pressed to add more in that situation. Too bad he didnt realize staying with Krall was always his best path to Oly gold, whether he liked he on a personal level or not. Kathy Johnson on the side would be fine, she is a terrific choreographer and did help him even further improve his already world leading skating skills and greatly improve his previously overrated artistry.

One thing I know I can't predict for sure is who the heck will do Ashley's choreography. I want her to come out strong, and think she will. But if Philip Mills is out, and I assume Tom Dickson is, I just have to wonder who. And what will they do with her?

Edit--David Wilson, not Tom Dickson. I get the two confused for whatever reason.

One thing I know I can't predict for sure is who the heck will do Ashley's choreography. I want her to come out strong, and think she will. But if Philip Mills is out, and I assume Tom Dickson is, I just have to wonder who. And what will they do with her?

The one genre I worry about is US Pairs. It's virtually non-existent. I think Castelli and Schnapir will never be able to compete effectively on the international level. They just don't have that "wow" factor. Duhamel and Radford hit me the same way - very physical but not very charismatic or eye-popping. US pairs are in a world of hurt!!!

eta: I realize Duhamel is Canadian - worded that last paragraph awkwardly. Meant to say that D and R (see, I can do it too) effect me the same way the C and S do - not at all!!!!!

This is interesting because Duhamel and Radford have been very competitive internationally despite what you perceive as their (and Castelli/Shnapir's) shortcomings. I don't think the reason Marissa and Simon haven't broken through internationally has anything to do with charisma or the height difference- they simply haven't executed their elements consistently and until this season lacked difficulty in the throws. The Olympic judges seemed to indicate that when/if they skate clean, they will score big. They had a 120 for an imperfect FS at the Olympics. Their Worlds FS which was laden with mistakes scored higher than their clean FS from the year prior, indicating they are ticking upward.I expect another season of people writing off Marissa and Simon only to have them end up winning their third US title easily and a good showing at Worlds.

And I disagree that US Pairs are "in a world of hurt." There's a decent amount of depth even if they aren't contending for World medals. Which really was always the case except a few years when Meno/Sand or Ina/Zimmerman won bronze in a depleted field.

right because even a mistake prone Gracie placed ahead of Wagner
a GP titles for Gracie is fare more likely than Wagner even winning one, younger girls than her have 3-3s so her tumbling PCS wont make up for it
Edmunds will beat her anyways so qualifying for GPF is very questionable for Wagner

Gracie can easily win and qualify to GPF

Well sure because USFS will ensure she has zero competition at Skate America. They'll probably invite Caroline Zhang again for that purpoise.

Well sure because USFS will ensure she has zero competition at Skate America. They'll probably invite Caroline Zhang again for that purpoise.

Yeah, at least when Ashley lost Skate America last season, it was because Asada was there. I would bet the USFS is desperate to ensure Gold has a GP win, essentially guaranteeing her a spot in the GPF. She'll be pitted against skaters with low PCS, or inconsistency.

If they invite a Russian it'll probably be Tuktamysheva again. It would probably be a mistake for them to invite Radionova/Lipnitskaia/Sotnikova/Pogorilaya if they want to ensure Gracie wins, and hold off on Gold competing against them as long as possible. Funny enough, it could backfire if Liza somehow turns around her skating over the summer and Gold remains inconsistent.