Published: January 30, 2013

Changes Affecting Illegal Immigration

Several underlying factors contributing to illegal immigration have changed since Congress last considered a bill on the issue in 2007.

300,000

200,000

0

100,000

’20

’10

’30

’40

’50

Ages 15-29

Rest of population

Fertility rate in Mexico

Population projections

for Mexico

Children per woman aged 18-49

’76

’81

’10

’90

’00

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Aging population

The pool of young immigrants from Mexico is also shrinking. The number of children per woman in Mexico has declined to 2.2 in 2013 from more than 5 in 1976, and the share of the population most likely to
immigrate, those ages 15-29, is projected to decrease over the next 40 years.

Economic realities

Analysts say the drop in apprehensions only partially reflects border security, and that the United States has become less of an economic magnet for workers. With the exception of 2009 (the peak of the global
financial crisis), Mexico’s economy has grown at a faster pace than the United States’ since 2004.

’02

’03

’04

’05

’06

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

Annual change in G.D.P.

Mexico

United States

+6%

+4

+2

0

–2

–4

–6

Deportations of illegal

immigrants from Mexico

Apprehensions along

the U.S. border

Border security

Officials have estimated that fewer people have been able to enter the country illegally through Mexico, where the majority of immigrants to the United States originate. Apprehensions by U.S. Border Control
— 96 percent of which occur on the Southwest border — are down significantly since their most recent peak in 2000.

Deportations of Mexicans, who made up 75 percent of those deported in 2011, have also increased.

’11

’05

’95

’85

’11

’05

’00

’93

’75

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5 million

150 million

120

90

60

30

0

Sources: U.S. Department of Homeland Security (apprehensions); World Bank (change in G.D.P.); Mexican government (fertility rates from INEGI, population projections from CONAPO)