40% NEM 2010 RF..!!!! & ????
But I am very pessimistic about NEM 2010 rainfall. It is and it will be a "RETREATING" SW monsoon with [I hope] lesser than normal rainfall. LA NINA will be stronger during Oct Nov Dec 2010 and cold tongue will be penetrating from East central Pacific to Western Pacific to Indian Ocean and some time may bring colder than normal minimum temperature in East coast especially SCAP & N-TN.

Seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole as on Friday (September 17) improved further to 103 per cent as the southwest monsoon got busier in East and Northeast India.

Significantly, at -19 per cent deficit, this geographical region also managed to steer itself into the ‘normal' category as per India Meteorological Department (IMD) norms.

Individual deficits

But individual deficits in the Met subdivisions of Jharkhand (-43 per cent), Gangetic West Bengal (-33 per cent), Assam and Meghalaya (-25 per cent) and Bihar (-22 per cent) had their own tales to tell.

Overall, the country now has five rain-deficit Met subdivisions as on date, of which, four falls within East and Northeast India region.

The only one left is East Uttar Pradesh, which comes falls within the Northwest India region, but which lies contiguous to the rain-scarce Bihar.

Crop condition

Crop condition is improving in rain-scarce Bihar and Jharkhand due to receipt of delayed rainfall over the last two weeks, according to the latest agro-met advisory bulletin issued by IMD.

Harvest prospects look good due to the well-distributed rainfall, the bulletin said. There is significant improvement in the rainfall condition in West Bengal, particularly in Gangetic West Bengal.

Except the few districts that stayed out of the rain belt, most others received good rain. Standing crops has improved in the districts where sowing was delayed due to receipt of poor rain during earlier part of the season.

Farm advisory

Farmers who have kept the lands fallow or lost crops due to deficient rain have been advised to sow specified crops for specific regions and make most of the rainfall received and likely to occur during the next few days.

In Jharkhand, farmers may sow early mustard and ‘toria' as sole crops and early mustard with vegetable pea and ‘toria' with vegetable pea as intercrops.

Crops partially affected due to less rainfall in some districts of Uttar Pradesh are now in reasonably good condition due to recent rainfall.

Water logging condition has been reported afresh from South Telangana (Hyderabad, Medak, Rangareddy and Nalgonda districts). Farmers are advised to drain out excess water from the fields.

As expected, a fresh low-pressure area sprung up over West-central and Northwest Bay of Bengal. Associated cloud bands extended to coastal areas of Orissa and North Andhra Pradesh by the evening.

Towards the Northwest, a western disturbance is expected to impact the western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of Northwest India during the next three days.

The IMD has warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over West Uttar Pradesh and Uttarkhand during the next two days.

Isolated heavy rainfall would also occur over East Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, North coastal Andhra Pradesh and Orissa during this period. Forecast valid until Wednesday spoke about the possibility of a decrease in rainfall over parts of Northwest India and East India.

Fairly widespread rainfall would continue over Northeastern States and parts of Central India, the IMD said.