A new poll suggests the federal Conservatives are flying high in Alberta but grounded just about everywhere else.

OTTAWA — The federal Conservatives are flying high in Alberta but appear to be grounded just about everywhere else, a new poll suggests.

That’s not good news for the governing party on the eve of the first anniversary of its election victory.

The survey by Decima Research, provided Thursday to The Canadian Press, puts the Conservatives and Liberals in a statistical dead heat in national support among decided and leaning voters.

But when Alberta respondents — where Tory support is running four times that of the Liberals — are taken out of the poll, the Liberals are seven percentage points ahead of the Conservatives in the rest of the country.

“As the one-year anniversary of its election approaches, the Conservative party’s challenge is becoming clear,” said Bruce Anderson, Decima’s CEO.

“Their support in Alberta is massive, and actually growing . . . . Their competitiveness in many parts of the rest of the country is what is under real pressure.”

The national numbers break down this way: Liberal support, 33 per cent; Conservatives 32; NDP 13, and the Green Party nine per cent.

In Alberta, Decima’s three-week rolling average puts Tory support at 63 per cent and the Liberals at 14 — almost 50 percentage points back.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s party swept all 28 Alberta seats in the election last Jan. 23 en route to a minority government, so blanket public support in the province cannot translate into more parliamentary heft the next time around.

And outside Alberta, Anderson says his recent surveys paint a troubling picture for the government.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois leads with 44 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 26, Conservatives 15, the NDP at seven per cent and the Green Party at five.

The Liberals enjoy 44 per cent support in Ontario, compared to 31 per cent for the Tories, 14 per cent for New Democrats and 10 per cent for the Greens.

Decima’s most recent survey of more than 1,025 respondents was conducted last Thursday through Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Decima compared the poll numbers to its surveys from last January and found Conservative slippage in several demographic groupings.

Last year at this time, the Tories led the Liberals by six percentage points among women voters. Over the past three weeks of polling, Decima has found the Liberals up an average nine per cent among women.

Among urban voters last January, the Conservatives enjoyed a six-point advantage. Now Decima has the Liberals six percentage points ahead of the Tories in urban areas.

Older voters, those 50 and up, favoured the Conservatives by 14 percentage points last year, but Decima’s surveys now suggest the Tory lead over the Liberals has been cut to three points. That’s within the poll’s margin of error.

One year ago, Conservative support outside Alberta was nine percentage points higher than Liberal support. According to three-week rolling averages from the last three Decima surveys, Tory support outside Alberta sits at 28 per cent, compared to 35 per cent for the Liberals.

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