Fantasy Football: David Wilson Vs. Andre Brown

The New York Giants backfield combination of David Wilson and Andre Brown has developed into one of the most interesting duos in all of fantasy football. Wilson was drafted by the Giants with the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Brown’s career path was a little more complex; he was actually also drafted by the Giants in the fourth round of the 2009 draft, but he suffered a torn Achilles tendon and was waived the following season. He then spent 2010 between four different NFL teams before returning to the Giants in 2011. Now the two players are in line to lead the Giants 2013 rushing attack. Even though both of the running backs only saw limited opportunity, they each succeeded in maintaining yards-per-carry’s of 5.0 or greater – a tremendous mark that has been a driving factor of their allure. Now that the door is wide-open for these two players to make substantial impacts, which player is the one to target for the 2013 fantasy football season?

As a first round draft pick, Wilson merited high expectations. However, his career did not begin on a high note; Wilson lost a fumble in Week 1 on just the second carry of his career and then did not return to the offense for the rest of the game. From thereon, he was relegated to the return game and the #3 running back role behind Ahmad Bradshaw and Brown. After a broken leg ended Brown’s season, Wilson began to see more carries, which is when he was able to flash the immense potential that made him a high draft selection.

Newly appointed as the #2 back, Brown saw extensive playing time as early as Weeks 2 and 3 after Bradshaw suffered a neck injury. He totaled 220 total yards and scored three touchdowns during those two games. Unfortunately, a concussion and the aforementioned broken leg limited him to only six more games, but he did manage to add five more touchdowns during that span while serving as the goal line back. In games that both Wilson and Brown were available, Wilson had only 17 carries compared to 73 for Brown.

Rightfully so, the widespread assumption is that this will be a committee situation in 2013, however the lead running back is still up for grabs. In regards to the Giants starting running back position, Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News quoted Tom Coughlin as saying:

“David Wilson, Andre Brown, Da’Rel Scott. There’s a few guys that will compete for that job.”

Make no mistake about it; this is just a two-horse race between Wilson and Brown. Nevertheless, if you would like to read deeper into his words, Wilson was listed first by Coughlin, which falls in line with the expectation that the 2012 first round draft pick will have the first shot to lead. Even so, during Coughlin’s tenure, the Giants have been no strangers to committees. The following table details the statistics of the Giants’ top-two backs between the years of 2008 and 2011 (when they heavily relied upon an RBBC approach):

You can see that there has been plenty of value in the Giants backups during those years. In fact, the Giants backup finished no worse than RB29. I’ve averaged the above data for the Giants’ #1 RB and #2 RB to see the value more clearly:

In terms of lead running backs, they seem to have had a ceiling of a high-end RB2 and an average positional ranking that planted them squarely in RB2 territory. I would like to note that averaging two missed games per season likely did have some effect. As for the secondary running backs, they steadily hovered close to RB2 territory. The average difference in the positional rankings between the #1 RB and #2 RB was only 7.3 spots. The current position difference in the ADP of Wilson and Brown, which is noted later in this article, is 13 spots.

Wilson has added weight and focused on his pass protection this offseason, gaining praise from Giants running backs coach, Jerald Ingram. His hard work to become a more complete back may pay-off if he does in fact lead the committee as expected; Wilson could then approach 220 carries, which would equate to 1,100 yards at his career YPC. The problem with Wilson is that Brown, who’s aiming for 22 touchdowns and 1300 rushing yards, will at the very least be locked in as the Giants goal line and short-yardage back – that’s a huge deal because for every extra touchdown that separates the players, the lower-scoring back would need an extra 60 total yards to match. Yes, it’s simple math, but I felt it was notable.

The current ADP data from FantasyPros.com places Wilson as the 19th running back being drafted and 34th overall player, while Brown is currently the 32nd running back off the board and 82nd overall player. That suggests Wilson is being drafted as a RB2 in the late 3rd round and Brown is being drafted as an RB3 in the later portion of the 7th round. Wilson possesses major potential, but in a situation where the pecking order isn’t yet set in stone, his current price tag is inflated a little much for my liking. On the other hand, Brown, who is in line for significant scoring opportunities, has developed into a value pick. I currently have Wilson graded as a fourth round talent (RB20, 40th overall) and Brown on the fifth/sixth round border (RB29, 73rd overall). Please keep in mind that much can change from now until the start of the regular season, but as everything stands now, there’s a greater chance I’ll be seeing Andre Brown on my 2013 fantasy football teams than David Wilson.

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Written by Kyle Wachtel

Footballguys' Staff Writer. Member of FSWA. Ranked 6th in FantasyPros' In-Season Accuracy for 2013. You can find me on Twitter: @KyleWachtel

Patrickmn

Thanks for this article. I was beginning to feel that I was the only one not on the Wilson train. Appreciate your help in staving off my self-doubt.