A Second Amendment Voting Guide

Journey through the states and offices

By Dave Kopel

National Review Online. November 4 , 2002 11:25 a.m. More by Kopel
on the 2002 election.

THE
GOVERNORS

Democrats are almost sure to make major gains in governorships this
year. What does that mean for Second Amendment rights? Let's take a
look, state-by-state, using the candidate ratings from the
National Rifle
Association Political Victory Fund as a guide.

Alaska:
Antigun Democrat Governor Tony Knowles is leaving office. Contending
for the open seat are Senator Frank Murkowski (A) and Democrat Fran
Ulmer (C). Either will be an improvement over Knowles. Ulmer has
called much attention to her ownership of eight guns, and her recent
purchase of a compact handgun for carrying while campaigning.

Arkansas:
Republican Governor Mike Huckabee (A+) is unexpectedly in trouble in
his race against State Treasurer Jimmie Lou Fisher (A).

California:
Despite terrible coverage by much the state's media, Bill Simon (A)
still has a chance to upset Gray Davis (F). Davis poses as a moderate,
but has made advertising one of the centerpieces of his campaign, and
has signed a wide variety of repressive laws.

Colorado:
Bill Owens (B+) won a very narrow victory in 1998 thanks to NRA help,
but after the Columbine murders, he turned into the state's most
effective gun-control advocate. In the last two years, he's again
become a supporter of gun rights. He has the chance of winning a
record landslide against Boulder Democrat Rollie Heath (D- ).

Florida:
Jeb Bush (A+) has a very tough contest with Bill McBride (F).

Georgia:
Democratic incumbent Roy Barnes (A+) has been an outstanding Second
Amendment leader, in the tradition of his predecessor Zell Miller.
Barnes is expected to defeat ex-State Sen. Sonny Perdue (A).

Hawaii:
Traditionally a one-party state, Hawaii may finally see a reaction
against a terrible economy and corruption. Republican Linda Lingle
(B), the former mayor of the island of Maui, lost the 1998
gubernatorial race by only a single point, and she appears to have the
lead over Lieutenant Governor Mazie Hirono. In response, Lingle's
opponents have started spreading rumors that she is a lesbian.

Idaho:
Republican Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (A) has a solid lead over publisher
Jerry Brady, who refused to answer the NRA questionnaire.

Illinois:
Antigun Republican George Ryan, having seen most of his agenda blocked
in the legislature, is retiring due to corruption problems. His
replacement could be Democrat Rep. Rod Blagojevich, whose
once-comfortable lead over state Attorney General Jim Ryan has shrunk.

Jim Ryan
appears to still be having trouble overcoming voter confusion between
himself and George Ryan. Illinois voters are notoriously dopey about
names. In one notorious primary, the mainstream Democratic candidate
for lieutenant governor lost to a LaRouchite named John Adams.

The NRA grades
both of the gubernatorial candidates too high. Jim Ryan gets a B+,
despite his unwillingness to support progressive gun reforms, such as
handgun carry licensing, or repeal of Chicago's gun prohibition.
Blagojevich's F rating is likewise too high, and a new letter should
have been invented for him. As a state legislator, he introduced a
bill to raise the fee for a Firearm Owners Identification card (FOID)
from $5 to $500. He said "I don't understand" why citizens care about
the right to own a firearm. As a U.S. representative, he has worked
hard to destroy what he doesn't understand, leading the charge against
gun shows, small handguns, big rifles, and every other potential
target of prohibition. He apparently views gun owners the way South
Carolina Senator "Pitchfork" Ben Tillman viewed black people: a
contemptible class of criminals and would-be-criminals, whose only
utility is as a target of political demagoguery.

Iowa:
Democrat Tom Vilsack (F) is in the lead for second term against lawyer
Doug Gross (A).

Maine:
Independent Governor Angus S. King is out because of term limits.
Republican State Rep. Peter Cianchette (A) is way behind State Rep.
John Baldacci (D).

Maryland:
Democratic Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (F) has already been
running the state's gun policies, under the ethically troubled
governorship of Parris Glendening. Townsend/Glendening have made
Maryland's gun laws significantly more oppressive, with harmful
results to public safety. Their so-called ballistic "fingerprinting"
system has incurred huge costs, and not solved a single crime. While
the expensive "fingerprinting" system was being created, Maryland
stopped running background checks on gun buyers, due to lack of money.

Sales of many
models of handguns have been halted, due to the expense of the failed
ballistic system, or to the administration's refusal to appointment
members to the Handgun Roster Board, thereby ensuring that the Board
(which must approve new models of handguns sold in Maryland) rarely
has a quorum.

Despite
promising not to politicize the Maryland sniper, Mrs. Townsend did so,
and began running antigun commercials. These commercials were exceeded
in their loathsomeness, however, by the Brady Campaign's use of
Columbine High School footage in its commercials.

Townsend's
opponent, Rep. Bob Ehrlich (B) voted for the Brady Bill, but against
various gun-ban proposals. The Brady Campaign has denounced him as an
"extremist," a disingenuous assault that even the Washington Post
found implausible.

If Ehrlich can
hold onto his small lead, it would be a big triumph for civil
liberties and honest campaigning.

Massachusetts: Republican Mitt Romney (B) is in a tight race with
State Treasurer Shannon O'Brien (B). As a member of the Massachusetts
legislature, O'Brien had a good record on gun issues, although she
expressed some support for gun control during the gubernatorial
primary.

Michigan:
Outgoing Governor John Engler signed concealed handgun licensing
reform, albeit after insisting on extensive restrictions on where
licensed guns can be carried. Lt. Governor Dick Posthumus (A) is
behind, but still has a chance, against Attorney General Jennifer
Granholm (F).

Granholm was
the luncheon speaker at Wayne State University symposium on guns a few
years ago. (John Lott and I were the two pro-rights speakers on the
day's panels.) Granholm's speech made it clear that she knows very
little about guns and that she believes every cliché invented by the
gun-prohibition lobby. Even so, she has not proposed repealing
Michigan's concealed handgun law, which is working quite well, despite
the hysterical predications made by antigun advocates before the bill
was enacted.

Minnesota:
Jesse Ventura was erratic in many ways, but kept his promise to
support concealed handgun-licensing reform. Reform was blocked by a
single vote in the state senate, due to the efforts of DFL State
Senate Majority Leader Roger Moe (F). Moe's current advertising touts
his antigun credentials.

Moe is in a
close three-way race with Republican House Majority Leader Tim
Pawlenty (A) and Independence party (former Democrat) Rep. Tim Penny
(F). As a U.S. representative, Penny supported Second Amendment rights
until 1994, when he cast the decisive vote in favor of the Clinton
"assault weapon" ban. He explained that the ban wouldn't do any good,
but that people were afraid, and so he felt a need to do something.

After leaving
Congress, he wrote a book, The Fifteen Biggest Lies in Politics(1998) that criticized gun control (and cited me!). Currently, he's
trying to waffle on concealed-handgun reform. Penny's overall record
really is much better than Moe's, but Pawlenty is clearly the only
real choice for advocates of a fair system of licensing for handgun
carry.

Nebraska:
Republican Gov. Mike Johanns (A+) is up against the superbly named
Stormy Dean (A). Nebraska's obstacle to handgun carrying reform isn't
the governor, but breaking a filibuster in the unicameral legislature,
led the Omaha State Senator Ernie Chambers.

Nevada:
Governor Kenny Guinn (A) is a tax-and-spend Republican. He has a huge
lead over State Sen. Joe Neal (F). Neal may be in danger of finishing
behind "none of the above."

New
Hampshire: With incumbent Jeanne Shaheen leaving office in search
of the U.S. Senate, Republican Craig Benson (A) has opened up a big
lead over Mark Fernald (F). Given Shaheen's record, New Hampshire
looks to be a solid gain the Second Amendment.

New Mexico:
Democrat Bill Richardson was a strong advocate of gun rights in 1989 —
when he inserted into the Congressional Record a monograph I
wrote about the foolishness of "assault weapon" prohibition. By as an
assistant House whip during the Clinton years, he helped push the
"assault weapon" ban over the top. Both Richardson and Republican
opponent John Sanchez get an A- from the NRA, and Richardson has a
wide lead.

New York:
Governor George Pataki (F) fought for and won a comprehensive
antigun bill in 2000. Although New York has wasted millions of
dollars on ballistic "fingerprinting," not a single crime has been
solved as a result. Comptroller Carl McCall did not answer the NRA
questionnaire, but he made it clear that he didn't like guns when he
ran against NYU professor Herb London in 1994. Third-party billionaire
Thomas Golisano (A) has a chance to surpass McCall.

Ohio:
Incumbent Republican Bob Taft (B+) has little political resemblance to
his famous ancestor. This generation's Bob Taft fought a very hard but
unsuccessful campaign to force gun owners to keep their guns locked up
(and thereby to make working conditions safe for burglars). Although
he signed a good bill to prevent abusive antigun lawsuits, he is the
main obstacle to concealed handgun licensing reform. He has a wide
lead over a former Cuyahoga County Commissioner Tim Hagan, who did not
answer the NRA questionnaire.

Oklahoma:
Republican Frank Keating is term-limited. In marked contrast to Bill
Owens of Colorado, Keating did not see a horrible mass murder in his
state as a reason to turn into a gun-control advocate. Just a few
weeks after the Oklahoma City bombing, Keating signed concealed-carry
legislation. Owens, however, ordered the Colorado senate Republican
leadership to ensure that concealed-carry legislation did not reach
his desk in 2000, the year after Columbine. (Now, however, Owens has
reverted to his 1998 position of favoring concealed carry.)

Former Seattle
Seahawk wide receiver and former U.S. Rep. Steve Largent (A+) has a
small lead over Democratic State Sen. Brad Henry (A).

Oregon:
Term-limited Democrat John Kitzhaber was a strong antigun activist.
Former Democratic State Supreme Court Justice Ted Kulongoski (C+) has
a not insurmountable lead over former State Rep. Kevin Mannix (A).
Either would be an improvement over Kitzhaber, but Mannix much more
so.

Pennsylvania:
Attorney General Mike Fisher (A) and former Philadelphia Democratic
Mayor Ed Rendell (F) are fighting for this open seat. Rendell is the
original political advocate of filing malicious antigun lawsuits to
bankrupt gun companies, although his administration never actually
filed a suit. Gun-prohibition groups are contributing heavily to
Rendell, as they should. Rendell currently claims not to be antigun
but this is lie.
John Lott recounts a 1999 debate in Chicago. After the debate,
Lott heard Rendell tell a Violence Policy Center employee, "I just
can't say publicly what we want to do. We have to take these things
slowly."

In response to
a question from Lott, Rendell insisted that defensive gun use never
occurred.

Rendell has a
wide lead over Fisher, as Pennsylvanians tend alternate governorships
between the parties.

Rhode Island:
Antigun Republican Lincoln Almond is out because of term limits.
Democrat Myrth York (F) has won the Democratic nomination for a third
time, but Republican businessman Ronald Carcieri (B+) is within
striking distance.

South
Carolina: Democratic Governor Jim Hodges (A+) is in a close race
with former Rep. Mark Sanford (A).

South Dakota:
In this open seat, former State Sen. Mike Rounds (A+) has the lead
over Democrat Jim Abbott (B), president of the University of South
Dakota

Tennessee:
Republican Governor Don Sundquist is term-limited, much to the relief
of taxpayers who had to resist his fervid efforts — in violation of
his own campaign promises — to impose a state income tax. There next
governor will be A rated by the NRA, whether it's Republican Rep. Van
Hilleary (R) or Phil Bredesen, the former mayor of Nashville.

Texas:
Lt. Governor Rick Perry (A) succeeded George Bush as governor. He
appears to have developed a comfortable lead over Tony Sanchez (A).
With a rising Hispanic vote, Texas isn't going to be a solid
Republican state in the future. Yet as Tony Sanchez's A rating
testifies, Hispanic power isn't necessarily inconsistent with
traditional Texan support for gun rights.

Vermont:
Outgoing Democratic Governor Howard Dean was very good on guns, and
may be the best choice in the 2004 presidential primaries for
Democrats who support the Second Amendment. Democratic Lt. Gov.
Douglas Racine (C) would not be as good, and he has a small lead over
State Treasurer Jim Douglas (A). If no candidate cracks 50 percent
(and independent candidates have 11 percent currently), the Vermont
House (almost certain to be Republican) will choose the governor.

Wisconsin:
Lt. Gov. Scott McCallum (A) became Governor when Tommy Thompson became
secretary of health and human services McCallum trails Attorney
General Jim Doyle (F). Part of the problem is Ed Thompson, Tommy's
brother, who is running under the Libertarian banner. Like Minnesota,
Wisconsin is very close to enacting concealed handgun reform, but not
if gun owners waste their votes.

Wyoming:
Former Republican House Speaker Eli Bebout (A+) faces former U.S.
Attorney Dave Freudenthal (A-). Bebout has the lead, but the race
isn't over.

Summary:
Gun owners are sure to gain in Alaska, Massachusetts, and Oregon,
although the magnitude of the gain in the Pacific states is variable.
They have good opportunity for progress in Hawaii, Maryland, and New
Hampshire, plus a potential upsets in California and Rhode Island.
Second Amendment rights face possible losses in Arizona, Florida,
Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin, and terrible
losses in Pennsylvania and Illinois, with the latter two governorships
going to extreme prohibitionists. Kansas will either get much better
or much worse.

THE HOUSE

Pundits agree that the House of Representatives will stay narrowly
Republican, mostly because of high-tech gerrymandering that creates
safe seats for both parties. But there a still dozens of races where
the race is a toss-up, or the underdog could pull off an upset. Here's
a rundown of every such race — plus a few others — where there's a
notable difference between the candidates on Second Amendment issues.
For each candidate, I report their grades, first from the NRA's
Political Victory Fund, and then Gun Owners of America. GOA grades
much stricter. The grade of "?" or "NR" means the candidate did not
respond to the questionnaire from the group.

Alabama 3d district: This open seat was created was Republican
Bob Riley left to run for Governor. Republican Mike Rogers (A, A) has
a proven record as minority leader in the statehouse. Business
consultant Joe Turnham (B, F) ran for the seat in 1998, too.

California
18: Incumbent Gary Condit was defeated in the primary by
Assemblyman Dennis Cardoza (D, C). He faces Republican State Senator
Dick Monteith (A, A), on of the California legislature's leading
opponents of gun prohibition. The district is blue-collar Democrat,
and Monteith has a slight lead in the polls. This is a top priority
race for the Brady Campaign, which has named Monteith one its
"Dangerous Dozen."

Colorado 4:
In this open seat created by Bob Schaffer's adherence to this
term-limits pledge, Republican State Senator Marilyn Musgrave (A, A+)
faces outgoing Senate President Stan Matsunaka (C, F). Musgrave is a
close ally of GOA, and sometimes opposes NRA compromises on gun laws.
Matsunaka voted antigun whenever it mattered, and always assigned gun
bills to the most committees. But when he decided to run for the U.S.
House from the farm-oriented fourth district, he made a half-hearted
effort to help pass a bill for concealed-handgun-carry licensing.

Musgrave
appears to have a good lead here.

Colorado 7:
The new district is a half-ring of the north Denver suburbs. Former
Colorado Republican Party Chairman Bob Beauprez (A, C-) supported the
2000 state ballot initiative to put special restrictions on gun shows,
but has otherwise favored the Second Amendment. Former Senate Minority
Leader Mike Feeley's (F, F) current ad rails about "cop-killer
bullets" —
a hoax issue which was settled by 1986 federal legislation.

Florida 5:
Democrat incumbent Karen Thurman (A-, D) was a full-tilt defender of
government abuse at the 1995 House Waco hearings, but she has
otherwise been good on the gun issue. State Senator Ginny Brown-Waite
(A, A) is also good, without the Waco taint.

Florida 7:
Incumbent John Mica (A+, B) has the lead over Democrat Wayne Hogan (?,
NR).

Florida 24:
Florida Speaker of the House Tom Feeney (A, B), granted a chance to
run for Congress by the addition of two new district for Florida,
faces attorney Harry Jacobs (?, NR).

Georgia 4:
Denise Majette (?, NR) defeated anti-Semite Cynthia McKinney in the
primary. Although she did not answer the gun-group questionnaires, she
is said to be supportive of the Second Amendment. In this very
Democratic district, her Republican opponent is Cynthia Van Auken (B,
C).

Georgia 12:
This new Augusta/Athens seat is rated a toss-up by the Cook Political
Report. Computer-systems professor Max Burns (A, A) is leading
Democratic businessman Charles "Champ" Walker (?, NR).

Indiana 2:
In an open seat (around South Bend) created by Democrat Tim Roemer's
retirement, former Democratic Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson (D, D)
is trying a comeback. When first elected in a 1989 special election,
she made pro-gun overtures, at time when President George H. W. Bush
was betraying his campaign promises and inflaming hysteria over
"assault weapons." Her subsequent record, though was disappointing.
Chris Chocola (A, A) was the 2000 Republican nominee.

Indiana 7:
Indianapolis Rep. Julia Carson (F, F-) is one of the hardest-Left
representatives in a non-coastal state. Republican Brose McVey (A, B)
is close, but a Libertarian is siphoning off votes.

Iowa 4:
Republican incumbent Rob Latham's (A C) district got much more
Democratic after redistricting. John Norris (?, NR) served as Iowa
Director of the 1988 Jesse Jackson campaign. Jackson came in a
respectable fourth, behind neighboring Congressmen Paul Simon and
Richard Gephardt, and the eventual nominee, Michael Dukakis. Bruce
Babbitt had staked almost everything on Iowa, and Jackson's showing
finished off the Babbitt campaign.

Kansas 3:
Incumbent Democrat Dennis Moore (F, F) is amazingly for this district.
Airline pilot Adam Taff (A, NR) is one several congressional
candidates who decided to run because of September 11. Moore's slim
lead is within the margin of error.

Kentucky 3:
Moderate Republican Anne Northup (B, C-) usually has tough races in
this Louisville district. Democrat Jack Conway (?, NR) portrays
himself as a moderate, and he served as an aide to pro-gun Governor
Paul Patton. But his refusal to answer questionnaires raises doubts.

Maryland 2:
Incumbent Republican Robert Ehrlich running for governor — thanks in
part to redistricting which made the electorate much more Democratic.
Former Congresswoman Helen Bentley (B+, C) is trailing against
Democratic Baltimore County Executive Dutch Ruppersberger (?, NR).

Michigan 9:
Incumbent Republican Joe Knollenberg (A, A-) appears to be fending off
a challenge from lawyer David Fink (F, NR), in a district that has
become much more Democratic.

Michigan 10:
In an open seat created by David Bonior's unsuccessful campaign for
governor, Republican Secretary of State Candice Miller (A, A) is
leading Macomb County Prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D, NR)

Michigan 11:
Republican State Senator Thaddeus McCotter (A, A) vies for this new
Wayne County seat against Kevin Kelly (F, NR), supervisor of Redford
Township. The race appears to be dead-even.

Minnesota 2:
Democratic Rep. Bill Luther (F, F-) nearly lost to ex-Marine John
Kline (A, A) in 2000, and beat Kline by a wider margin in 1998. The
two are going at it again. The district is slightly more Republican
than before, but an anti-tax third-party candidate may siphon off
enough votes to make a difference.

New
Hampshire 1: This seat became open when John Sununu ran for
Senate against Bob Smith. The Sununu bid may cost the Republicans the
Senate seat, and the House seat is likewise in jeopardy. In any case,
the Sununu/Shaheen Senate winner won't be as pro-gun as Smith was,
and the new Representative won't be a pro-gun as Sununu was.
Republican State Rep. Jeb Bradley (B, C-) faces State Rep. Martha
Fuller Clark (F, F).

New Jersey 5:
With strong support from the Club for Growth, State Assemblyman Scott
Garrett (A, A) beat antigun, pro-tax incumbent Marge Roukema in the
primary for this Bergen County district. She is refusing to support
him in the general election. Anne Sumers (F, F) is running perhaps the
vilest ad created by a candidate in this congressional election cycle,
featuring a picture of John Allen Muhammad, and criticizing
Garrett's vote to let licensed, trained citizens carry handguns for
protection — as if that had anything to do with a murderer using a
rifle. Polls show Sumers within striking distance. The race is
priority for the Brady Campaign, which isn't used to pro-rights
congressmen from New Jersey.

New Mexico 1:
Republican Heather Wilson (A, B-) never has it easy in his Albuquerque
district. State Senate President Richard Romero (F, F) was a fierce
opponent of concealed-handgun licensing. Wilson leads by a single
point.

North
Carolina 8: Republican incumbent Robin Hayes (A, A-) now has a
Democratic-leaning district including much of Charlotte. He's
challenged by lawyer Chris Kouri (?, NR).

North Dakota
at-large: No state with high percentage of gun owners has such a
uniformly congressional delegation as North Dakota. Incumbent Democrat
Earl Pomeroy (F, F) Tax Commissioner Rick Clayburgh (A, A-).

Pennsylvania
6: This new district in suburban Philadelphia was created for
Republican State Senator Jim Gerlach (A, NR). He's opposed by Dan
Wofford (F, NR), son of former Senator Harris Wofford, the man who
started a national political panic over the need to socialize health
care, by winning a special election during the first Bush presidency.

Pennsylvania
15: Incumbent Republican Pat Toomey (A, A-) heads for a rematch
with United Steelworkers official Ed O'Brien (F, NR). Toomey has a
term-limits pledge that activates in 2004, perhaps setting him for a
Senate run.

Pennsylvania
18: Incumbent Democrat Frank Mascara moved to an adjacent
district. The redrawn district was built for State Senator and child
psychologist Tim Murphy (A, NR), who faces the 2000 Democratic
candidate Jack Machek (?, NR), tax collector for the Nowin School
District. Murphy has a big lead, suggesting that voters are less
mistrustful of psychologists than of taxmen.

Utah 1:
With the retirement of James Hansen, Republican House Speaker Rob
Bishop (A, A) vies with advertising executive Dave Thomas (?, C). in a
district made more Democratic by the addition of west Salt Lake City.
Bishop, formerly chair of the state party, is a strongly committed
Second Amendment activist.

Utah 2:
In the rest of Salt Lake City, incumbent Democrat Jim Matheson (B+, C)
has been better on guns that his previous record would have suggested,
perhaps because redistricting added over a dozen rural counties.
Challenger John Swallow (A, A), a State Representative, would likely
be superior, though. Polls show both Utah races are very close.

SENATE

Finally, here's your Second Amendment guide to the U.S. Senate
elections. For each candidate, I supply two grades: The first grade is
from the National
Rifle Association Political Victory Fund; the second grade is from
Gun Owners of America, which usually grades on a much sterner curve
than the NRA. If the grade is "?" or "NR," that means that the
candidate did not respond to the group's questionnaire. NRA rarely
rates third-party candidates, while GOA always does.

Alaska:
Republican Ted Stevens (A+, D) is almost certain to win a sixth term
by a very large margin, defeating lawyer Frank Vondersaar (?, NR). The
three third-party candidates — Green, Libertarian, and American
Independent — all received A ratings from GOA.

Arkansas:
A few years ago, first-term Republican Tim Hutchinson (A, B) dumped
his wife of 29 years to marry a former staffer. Primarily for that
reason, Hutchinson is in a very tight — but winnable — fight against
Attorney General Mark Pryor (F, NR). Pryor's father, David Pryor, held
the Senate seat for three terms before Hutchinson, and was a
consistent antigun vote.

Colorado:
Six years ago, Republican Wayne Allard (A, B) beat lawyer Tom
Strickland (F, NR). Then, Strickland campaigned as a supporter of the
Clinton-Gore-Reno program. This time around, he's claiming that he
opposes all new gun controls, except for the McCain-Lieberman gun show
bill (which would
allow federal regulators to abolish gun shows). Only the most
gullible gun owners believe Strickland, and he continues to receive
campaign contributions from gun prohibition organizations.

In 1999-2001,
he served as U.S. Attorney for Colorado under the Clinton
administration. His tenure was marked by an extremely abusive
prosecution of a pawn shop run by local pro-gun activist Greg
Golyansky and his brother and cousin. Strickland brought a 37-count
felony indictment — but the case was settled on October 29, 2002, with
a plea to a two paperwork violations. The judge's view of the merits
of the case is illustrated by the sentence imposed on Golyansky: one
day of probation.

The previous
United States Attorney (Clinton appointee Henry Solano) had declined
to prosecute the Golyansky case. Resistance to the case from the
career attorneys in Colorado office was apparently strong enough so
that Strickland had to use outsiders to handle the case, including an
attorney hired from the powerhouse lobbying firm where Strickland had
formerly worked.

The prosecutors
unlawfully withheld information showing that their key witness
suffered from severe mental illness. The federal district court and a
three-judge panel of the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals unanimously
agreed that Strickland's office had violated the trial court's
explicit orders so egregiously that sanctions should be imposed.
United States v. Golyansky, 291 F.3d 1245 (10th Cir., 2002).

I contacted the
Strickland campaign for their views on the Golyansky case and submitted
a written set of questions by e-mail. The campaign has not responded
to those questions.

Polls show the
Allard-Strickland race is very tight.

Delaware:
Democrat Joseph Biden (F, F) is running for a sixth term, and faces
his 1996 opponent Ray Clatworthy (A, NR). Early in his Senate career,
Biden postured as a social moderate, but when he became chairman of
the Judiciary Committee, he turned the committee into a vehicle for
repressive legislation on a wide spectrum of Bill of Rights issues;
gun restrictions, expansion of computer and electronic surveillance,
and anti-federalism were special objects of attention.

Georgia:
Democrat Max Cleland (D, F) is running for a second term against U.S.
Saxby Chambliss (A+, A). Cleland very occasionally casts a pro-gun
vote, but his overall voting record is far out of step with Georgia's
support for Second Amendment rights. This is one of the key swing
races.

Idaho:
Incumbent Republican Larry Craig (A+, B) serves on the Board of
Directors of the National Rifle Association. But his opponent Alan
Blinken (F, NR) argues that Craig isn't sufficiently pro-gun. One of
his commercials shows Blinken cleaning his shotgun. Blinken says that
Craig "talks about the rights of gun owners, but he hasn't even had a
hunting license in Idaho in years." Blinken promises: "I came to Idaho
to hunt and fish... I won't just talk about our way of life. I live
it, and I'll fight for it." But given Blinken's miserable rating from
the NRA, it's doubtful that Second Amendment supporters will desert
the Craig, who really does fight for gun rights.

Illinois:
Democrat Richard Durbin (F, F) won his first term promising to be an
energetic proponent of gun restrictions, and he has kept his promise.
His opponent, State Rep. Jim Durkin (?, D), is not much better.

Iowa:
Three-term incumbent Democrat Tom Harkin (F, F) has supported handgun
prohibition, although he now claims not to. He is opposed by U.S. Rep.
Greg Ganske (C, F), who usually voted against gun owners in the House.

Kansas:
Republican Pat Roberts (A, C) faces no Democratic opposition in his
bid for a second term. Libertarian Steven Rosile was given an A by
GOA.

Kentucky:
Republican Mitch McConnell (A, C) not only has a good record on the
Second Amendment, he worked with the ACLU as the leading First
Amendment opponent of the McCain-Feingold campaign speech
restrictions. He is opposed, not especially effectively, by Lois
Weinberg (?, NR), the daughter of a former governor.

Louisiana:
The election system in this state is unusual, and not just for the
possible fraud which might have won Democrat Mary Landrieu (C-, F) her
1996 election. In the November election, Landrieu faces one Democrat,
four Republicans, two independents, and a Libertarian. Landrieu,
currently at about 45 percent in the polls, needs to crack 50 percent
to avoid a December run-off. Among her opponents, the pro-gun
candidates are three of the four Republicans — U.S. Rep. John Cooksey
(A, B), State Rep. Tony Perkins (A, A), and Elections Commissioner
Suzanne Haik Terrell (A, NR) — and the Libertarian Gary Robbins (GOA:
A).

Maine:
First-term Republican Susan Collins (B+, D) was expected to have a
hard race, but she now has a very wide lead over Democrat Chellie
Pingree (F, F).

Massachusetts: In the 2000 election, the self-destructive
Massachusetts Republican party worked to undermine the party's nominee
Jack Robinson. The party officials decided that since Robinson had a
conviction for drunk driving, the party would be better off not
putting up any candidate against Ted Kennedy (!). This time around,
the Republican surrender monkeys get their wish, and John Kerry (F, F)
will win his fourth term with no Republican on the ballot. Not since
the founding of the Republican party have Massachusetts Republicans
failed to field a U.S. Senate candidate.

Libertarian
Michael Cloud gets an A from GOA.

Michigan:
Democrat Carl Levin (F, F) very occasionally casts a pro-gun vote, but
never when it matters. He is expected to handily defeat State Rep.
Andrew Raczkowski (A, A).

Minnesota:
Former St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman (A, B) probably cost himself the
governorship in 1998 by his waffling on concealed carry. He would,
however, be vastly better for Second Amendment rights than ex-Vice
President Walter Mondale (F).

Mississippi:
Republican Thad Cochran (A, D) faces no Democratic opposition, after
his opponent dropped out in August due to poor health. GOA have his
independent opponent an A.

Missouri:
Jean Carnahan (F, F) faces the electorate for the first time since
being appointed to replace her deceased husband Mel Carnahan. As
Governor, Mr. Carnahan was a staunch opponent of gun rights, and
worked very hard to defeat a referendum on licensed carrying of
handguns — despite promising the NRA that he would not get heavily
involved in the issue. In the Senate, Mrs. Carnahan continues to work
against gun rights — although she has been attempting to obscure the
fact by pointing out she's a fine shotgun shooter, and her opponent
Jim Talent (A, B) is not. The conjunction of Mrs. Carnahan's genuine
shotgun skills and her genuine hostility handgun ownership is,
unfortunately, not uncommon among certain segments of the shot gunning
community. Astute gun owners recognize that — as England and Australia
have demonstrated — destruction of the right to own a handgun is a
prelude to the confiscation of sporting shotguns.

Montana:
Democrat Max Baucus (B, F) has usually voted pro-gun, but with some
very significant exceptions during the Clinton years. His opponent,
State Senator Mike Taylor (A, A) was an outstanding Second Amendment
leader in the state legislature. Baucus has been running TV
commercials calling himself a "strong supporter of the Second
Amendment" and reminiscing, "One of my best memories is when my dad
gave me my first gun and taught me the responsibility that goes along
with it."

Nebraska:
First-term Republican Chuck Hagel (A, C) has a wide lead over Charles
Matulka (A, B), a construction worker whose strong support of gun
rights reflects the views of many Democratic tradesmen.

New
Hampshire: Senator Bob Smith was the pre-eminent gun-rights
advocate in the Senate, and lead sponsor of legislation to allow
airline pilots to be armed. At the urging of the White House, Rep.
John E. Sununu (A, B) challenged Smith in the primary and defeated
him. Should Sununu win the election, he will be a reliable pro-gun
vote, but he has made it clear that he won't be a leader on the issue
like Smith was. While the White House expected Sununu to cruise in the
general election, his arrogant personality (perhaps inherited from his
father) contrasts markedly with likeable Governor Jeanne Shaheen (F,
NR), and the race is a toss-up.

New Jersey:
Frank Lautenberg (F, F-) and Robert Torricelli didn't like each other,
but they share a common contempt of the Second Amendment and New
Jersey election statutes. Lautenberg is currently touting his
authorship of the "Lautenberg Amendment," a 1994 provision in the
Clinton crime bill which made it illegal for anyone with a domestic
violence misdemeanor — no matter how far in the past — to even a hold
a gun in his or her hands. Lautenberg's amendment turned an offense
for which someone might have served a month of probation in 1967 into
a retroactive lifetime ban on the exercise of a civil right.
Lautenberg apparently had no concerns that someone who pleaded guilty
in 1967 because he couldn't afford a lawyer — and the District
Attorney was offering a plea bargain with no jail time and no fine —
would be prohibited from gun ownership three decades later, as a
completely unforeseeable consequence of the plea bargain.

The Lautenberg
Amendment also over-rode state laws about gun possession by
misdemeanants, which were far more nuanced and diverse than the
Lautenberg lifetime prohibition.

Lautenberg's
disdain for the Second Amendment is matched by his contempt for the
Tenth Amendment. He introduced legislation to overturn state laws that
allow trained adults who pass a background check to carry a handgun
for lawful protection.

Republican Doug
Forrester (?, NR) has said that we don't need more gun laws, and
accurately
criticized the "assault weapon" legislation (bans on guns based on
cosmetics) as a mean-spirited persecution, having no real connection
to public safety.

The national
gun-prohibition groups are investing very heavily in the campaign
against Forrester, but he's still within range of pulling an upset.
Bill Bradley, it should be remembered, barely squeaked into his final
Senate term, despite pre-election polls showing he had a substantial
lead.

New Mexico:
Since first being elected in 1972, Republican Pete Domenici (A, D) has
focused on fiscal issues, but his voting record on gun rights has been
mostly good. He has a very wide lead over Gloria Tristani (?, NR), a
former commissioner of Federal Communications Commission, an
organization whose bureaucratic torpor is notable even by Washington
standards.

North
Carolina: Elizabeth Dole's husband Robert Dole spent his Senate
career and his Presidential primary campaigns as a staunch advocate of
gun rights. Then during the 1996 general election, he announced his
support of the "assault weapon" ban that he had fought against for so
many years in the Senate. When running for president in 1999, Mrs.
Dole attempted to distinguish herself from the Republican field by not
only supporting prohibition of so-called "assault weapons," but even
by opposing state laws which allow licensed, trained adults who pass a
background check to carry a handgun for lawful protection.

Now, running
for senator from North Carolina, Mrs. Dole (A, D) claims to have
changed her mind, and to oppose the antigun laws that were her
distinguishing platform items in 1999. Her opponent Erskine Bowles (D,
F) served as chief of staff for the most criminal administration in
American history. Dole is slightly ahead, but Bowles is within upset
range. In any case, gun owners will suffer a major loss from the
retirement of Senator Jesse Helms, whose support of gun rights stemmed
from conviction rather than focus groups.

Oklahoma:
Republican James Inhofe is one of only two incumbent senators seeking
reelection to receive an A from Gun Owners of America. (The other is
Wyoming's Mike Enzi.) Inhofe gets an A+ from the NRA. His opponent is
former Governor David Walters (D, NR), and the race does not look
close.

Oregon:
Having lost narrowly in 1994, and won narrowly in 1996, Republican
Gordon Smith (B, D) looks safe from Secretary of State Bill Bradbury
(F, NR). Smith isn't perfect, but he's pretty good for a senator from
the Left Coast.

Rhode Island:
Democrat Jack Reed (F, F) used his first term to establish himself as
a vanguard Senator for the movement. While pragmatic gun controllers
coalesced around the McCain-Lieberman gun-show bill, the hard core
preferred Reed's even more severe proposal. He should easily turn back
a challenge from Robert Tingle (C, C), a casino pit boss who is
relatively pro-gun, by Rhode Island statewide candidate standards

South
Carolina: Strom Thurmond dishonored himself and the United States
Senate in his final term, holding office long after he had lost the
mental and physical ability to perform his duties. As a senator,
Thurmond had an imperfect record on guns — teaming up with Howard
Metzenbaum in the 1980s to lead a push for "plastic gun" legislation
that would have banned many guns made from 100% metal. Under the first
Bush administration, Thurmond took the lead in supporting
administration gun control proposals, whereas senators such as Orrin
Hatch refused to go along.

Republican Rep.
Lindsey Graham (A, B) is vying with Alex Sanders (?, NR), the former
president of the College of Charleston. Sanders is a colorful Southern
raconteur, and an NRA member who says that current gun laws are
sufficient, and that he enjoys hunting with his grandfather's antique
Civil War rifle. On other hand, his failure to answer the NRA and GOA
questionnaires raises doubts, whereas Graham has a proven record in
Congress, and has received the NRA's endorsement.

Should Graham
prove the pundits right by winning, the change from Thurmond to Graham
would be a notable gain for gun rights — less in formal votes than in
behind-the-scenes negotiations.

South Dakota:
First-term Democrat Tim Johnson (C+, F) had a fine record on gun
issues when he served in the House, but usually switched to the other
side in the Senate. Challenger John Thune (A, B) is one of the best
shots for a pro-rights pick up.

Tennessee:
Former education secretary, governor, and plaid presidential candidate
Lamar Alexander (A, C) is fighting for an open seat against Rep. Bob
Clement (B, D). Neither would be quite as good as retiring Senator
Fred Thompson, but both candidates would vote for gun rights most of
the time.

Texas:
The retirement of Senator Phil Gramm deprives gun owners of one of
their most effective Senate champions. The former mayor of Dallas,
Democrat Ron Kirk (?, NR) considers himself (D) pro-business since he
distributed vast amounts of corporate welfare. Attorney General John
Cornyn (A, NR) has a slender lead in the polls.

Virginia:
Four-term incumbent John Warner (D, F) sometimes claims to support
Second Amendment rights, but usually doesn't. As in 1990, Virginia
Democrats aren't even bothering to field a candidate. Independent
candidate
Jacob Hornberger is a very bright and articulate libertarian, from
the Future of Freedom
Foundation, who certainly deserves his A from GOA The other
independent candidate is a follower of Lyndon LaRouche.

West
Virginia: Incumbent Democrat Jay Rockefeller (F, F) is expected to
defeat former State Senator Jay Wolfe (A, NR). As in North Dakota, the
voters of West Virginia are over-fond of seniority, and therefore
allow themselves to be represented by a Senate delegation that almost
always votes against West Virginia values on gun rights.

Summary:
Any result in South Carolina is an improvement for gun owners, but
especially a Graham win. Conversely, North Carolina is a guaranteed
decline for gun owners, but more so if Bowles wins. Gun owners have
the realistic potential of gaining ground in Georgia, Louisiana, New
Jersey, and South Dakota, and of losing seats in Arkansas, Colorado,
New Hampshire, and Texas.

— Dave Kopel
is a columnist for NRO. On election night, he'll be providing Colorado
and national election commentary on KBDI-TV Channel 12 in Denver,
simulcast on the web on
KNRC radio, 1510 AM, from 8-10 p.m. Mountain Time, and will also
appear on a webcast from
KCNC-TV,
Channel 4 in Denver, from 7-7:30.

Make a donation to support Dave Kopel's work in defense of constitutional
rights and public safety.

Nothing written here is to be construed as
necessarily representing the views of the Independence Institute or as an
attempt to influence any election or legislative action. Please send
comments to Independence Institute, 727 East 16th Ave., Denver, Colorado 80203 Phone 303-279-6536. (email)webmngr @ i2i.org