Most Dangerous Destinations 2007

Its no wonder the world seems to be getting more dangerous. After all, were bombarded every day by news of violence, natural disaster and the rising death toll in Iraq.

Sounds like a good reason to stay home, or at least take your vacations in Canada. But business travelers often have no choice. Where corporations go, so do their employees, sometimes even at risk to life and limb.

Fortunately, companies have a place to turn for know-how on bringing employees back alive. Risk consultancies such as Annapolis, Md.-based iJet Intelligent Risk Systems and London-based Control Risks specialize in advising corporations on staying safe in the worlds most dangerous places. Security contractors such as Triple Canopy, Blackwater USA and
DynCorp International
can provide physical protection just about anywhere in the world.

Based on the banner year risk consultants had in 2006, it would seem that the world really is getting less safe. As privately held companies, several of those we talked to wouldnt disclose profits. But iJet--which has advised companies including
Archer Daniels Midland
and
Prudential Financial
--announced last week that revenues for 2006 had increased by more than 50% over 2005. Triple Canopy, meanwhile, opened new offices in Lagos, Abu Dhabi and Manila, and Control Risks added four new offices, including one in Hong Kong and another in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. DynCorp, whose clients include the U.S. government, went public last May.

How We Play A Role

Perhaps, though, its not more danger thats helping these businesses thrive, but the fact that we put ourselves in harms way more often.

I wouldnt say its a more dangerous world, says James Smither, global issues manager for Control Risks. Id say the risks are changing. Civilians and business travelers are more in the firing line.

For one thing, we go to more places we didnt used to, thanks to globalization, easier and cheaper travel and, according to Smither, some very specific market forces.

For instance, prices for platinum, copper, aluminum and other metals are high because they serve as raw materials in industrial manufacturing, which is growing tremendously in India and China.

So mining companies are looking at countries that previously would have been written off as too risky, because of the high price of metals, Smither says.

That means these companies employees are heading for places such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, a country with extravagant natural wealth but also a long history of brutal government, where urban crime is high and some areas are dominated by local militias. Both Control Risk and iJet give Congo their highest risk rating, and the U.S. State Department warns citizens against traveling there.

Other countries on our most-dangerous list include Somalia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Côte dIvoire, Pakistan and Burundi. Most are in the grip of conflict to one degree or another. For instance, a civil war that began in 1993 is ongoing in Burundi, with rebel factions engaging in intense fighting with government forces. In Somalia, the federal government recently retook much of the country from the Union of Islamic Courts, but remains weak and dependent on the backing of the Ethiopian army. And in Côte dIvoire, a 2002 uprising nominally ended in 2003, but the north of the country remains under the control of armed rebels.

In many of these places, conflict has tended to exacerbate lawlessness--in Iraq, for instance, criminal gangs operate alongside ideologically motivated insurgents. Other countries make our list mainly because of crime. Neither Liberia nor Haiti is technically at war, but rampant criminality can make parts of these countries feel like war zones.

New to our list this year: Sri Lanka, Chad and Lebanon. Lush tropical beauty made Sri Lanka a popular holiday destination, but a ceasefire between the government and the separatist Tamil Tigers broke down last year. While foreigners are not directly targeted, the risk of becoming collateral damage is rising in the north and northeast. Chad has seen ethnic conflicts spillover from the neighboring Darfur region of Sudan and is also experiencing tension between its own government and rebel groups. And while hostilities between Lebanon and Israel ended last August, political tensions within Lebanon have been on the rise.

Because oil and other natural resource companies have to go where the riches are, they make up a big percentage of the clientele for risk consulting and security companies, but other sectors are in growing need of their services too. As mobile telephone use expands in the poorest and most conflict-prone areas of the world, telecom companies are increasingly doing business there, Smither says.

Triple Canopys main customer is the U.S. government, but its also focusing on gaining commercial customers, especially in the oil, mining and shipping industries, says CEO Lee Van Arsdale. It opened its new Nigeria office based on a simple business equation: Lots of Western workers plus massive political instability add up to demand. About 120 foreign oil workers were kidnapped in Nigeria in 2006, and violence by armed groups is on the rise. Though Nigeria doesnt make our most dangerous places list (theres a lot of competition), Control Risks Smither also cites it as a hot spot in danger of worsening this year.

New Terrorist Targets

One big change taking place internationally, according to Smither, is that terrorists are increasingly focusing on so-called soft targets--unprotected tourists, commuters and other civilians. In the past, embassies, government buildings and airlines were among the most common terrorist targets, but theyve all stepped up security in recent years. In response, terrorists seeking maximum damage on a limited budget increasingly seek to hit civilians.

Its really grown as a cottage industry, says Triple Canopys Van Arsdale. It used to be just Colombia, but now it could happen on any continent, and not just for political purposes but for profit.

Watch Yourself

What to do if you have to work in a danger zone? Risk consultancies offer their clients extensive pre-trip advice and help track and protect employees in-country.

Van Arsdale suggests you familiarize yourself with the most current information on where youre going--because sometimes out-of-date facts can be more dangerous than none at all. (Last years rebel leader could be this years president.)

He also recommends varying your daily route so that potential attackers cant predict when youll be in particular place, dispensing with obvious signs of wealth and if possible traveling in a group. Control Risks provides a list of general advice that includes suggestions such as memorizing important local phrases and avoiding alcohol intake, which, no surprise, tends to make people more vulnerable to attack.

Travelers to potential danger zones should also always check the State Departments Web site for the latest travel warnings before departure. The State Department currently has standing warnings on 31 countries, including Iraq and Afghanistan, but also places that make Western headlines much less, like the Philippines.

To determine which places were the most dangerous, we asked Control Risks and iJet to provide us with their watch lists of high-risk countries. IJet evaluates countries across six categories, including crime and civil unrest, and assigns each country a rating of one to five, with five being the most severe. Control Risks assesses countries for overall security risks, specific terrorism risks and travel risks and rates each of these categories on a five-point scale. Extreme and high are the first- and second-most dangerous ratings.

We came up with 13 countries that get the highest rating from either Control Risks, iJet or both. The State Department has also issued warnings against travel to all of these places. If you plan to visit any of them, we hope you are equipped with the latest body armor and have an excellent life insurance policy--and that you get plenty of danger pay.