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Today, the GBP/USD pair is again under pressure amid increasing uncertainty around Brexit.

British politicians have only one week left to prevent the "hard" Brexit.

Currently, British Prime Minister Theresa May is actively negotiating with the opposition to develop a joint action plan for Brexit, which will be able to get a majority in parliament. However, apparently, the head of government will not have time to do this until April 12. Therefore, she sent a letter to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, with a request to postpone the date of the country's withdrawal from the EU on June 30.

At the same time, T. May noted that the United Kingdom will try to ratify the "divorce" agreement until May 23 in order not to take part in the elections to the European Parliament.

It is assumed that the final decision on granting London a postponement on Brexit will be made in Brussels at the summit of European leaders, which will be held on April 10. If the new date of Brexit is not approved, Foggy Albion will have to leave the EU on April 12.

The process of leaving the UK from the EU is now so complicated that it puts into a stupor even computer algorithms that trade the pound sterling, reports Reuters.

At the same time, the volatility of the British currency is close to two-year highs.

"Theoretically, the Union of T. May and J. Corbyn can guarantee the majority needed to support the new Brexit plan, but so far the Prime Minister's step has not met with understanding among its party members. We believe that May's new approach only increased the likelihood of holding early parliamentary elections. The implementation of such a scenario means a growing uncertainty that will act as a negative point for the pound," said representatives of the financial institute.

The dull euro will not be able to demonstrate strong growth, even if the data on the American labor market will have a negative connotation. The uptrend is likely to be limited to the $1.1260 area.

Weak euro – the handiwork of the ECB. The single currency is under pressure from the policy of the European regulator, which discusses the possibility of more aggressive stimulation of the economy. Both rate cuts and increases in the QE program are considered here. Such news, as a rule, creates a "bearish" mood in the market. If traders buy euros, it is with great reluctance. At the same time, European stock markets will show a positive trend. Investors in the securities markets are always optimistic about stimulating the economy.

As for the pound, it is still strongly influenced by the situation with Brexit. The trend in the British currency changes every day or two, and determine its policy. It is not surprising if today the sterling takes off after the lawmakers suddenly announce their readiness to sign an agreement on the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU. Perhaps this will happen not today, but next week.

Betting with bookmakers

Experts and traders nervously wondering which of the scenarios will be implemented, and closely watching the rates on the reaction of the pound.

As noted in the consulting company Capital Economics, recent rates indicate a more than 50% chance that by the end of 2019, the UK will still be in the EU. This will be the cancellation of the decision on withdrawal or prolongation of the Brexit terms. The risk of exit without a deal has significantly decreased in recent days, but, given the high uncertainty and the throwing of politicians, anything can happen.

If Britain decides on a "hard" scenario, judging by the rates, the pound will collapse below $1.15. Local stocks and bond yields will collapse with it.

May's request or condition

Theresa May, in a letter published today, asked EU members to postpone the withdrawal from the group until June 30, 2019. If any transaction is agreed before the specified date, the term shall be terminated ahead of time, also specified in the message.

The point here is that Britain will try to ratify the Brexit deal until May 23. If this does not happen, the country will begin preparations for elections to the European Parliament. It is worth noting that the request for the extension of the deadline is more like a condition. The question is whether European leaders are ready to accept them.

Now, there is a lot of uncertainty about the pound, so traders need to keep an eye out and carefully weigh ideas with purchases or sales. Alternatively, you can choose Brent oil, which maintains a strong uptrend. The expected growth of quotes above $ 70.

The publication of the minutes of the ECB March meeting and the release of data on the US labor market was to wake up the EUR/USD pair, which spent almost the entire week near the base of the 12th figure. Alas, neither the information that some members of the Governing Council would like to hold rates at current levels, at least until March 2020 nor the growth of employment outside the agricultural sector above the forecasts of Bloomberg experts did not help the "bears" in the euro.

To be fair, we must admit that the statistics on the American labor market were mixed. Yes, non-farm payrolls did not scare investors, but the slowdown in the growth of average wages from 3.4% to 3.2% was an unpleasant surprise for fans of the US dollar. If wages are not accelerated, should we expect exploits from consumer prices? Perhaps Donald Trump is right, and in the conditions of sluggishly growing inflation, the Fed should not have raised the rate in December? The topic of criticism of the President has become a frequent guest on the front pages of the world media. The owner of the White House reproached the Central Bank for excessive activity, argued that if not for monetary restriction, stock indices and GDP would have been higher and the budget deficit is smaller. His chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow urged the Fed to reduce the rate by 50 bp.

At the same time, Jerome Powell repeatedly stressed the apolitical nature of the regulator, and representatives of the FOMC do not exclude the possibility of continuing the cycle of normalizing monetary policy this year. Against this backdrop, the ECB's concerns about a slowdown in eurozone GDP growth, Brexit and trade wars could be a catalyst for the peak of EUR/USD.

Despite the fact that most (16 out of 21) Bloomberg experts believe that as a result of LTRO, the European debt market rates will fall (that is, the long-term refinancing program is a weakening of monetary policy and a "bearish" factor for the euro) the main currency pair at around 1.18 by the end of the year. This is less than 1.2 (this figure appeared in the January and February forecasts), but 6 figures higher than the current levels. The main drivers of growth are fiscal stimulus and stabilization of the eurozone banking system.

The impact of LTRO on eurozone debt market rates

The key events of the week by April 12 will be the release of data on US inflation and European industrial production, the publication of the minutes of the March Fed meeting and, of course, the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB. In my opinion, since the last meeting of the Central Bank, the situation in the economy of the currency bloc has improved somewhat, which makes it possible to count on the attack of the "hawks". First, the United States and China are on the verge of signing a trade agreement. Secondly, data on European business activity were better than expected. Third, the political landscape in Britain is improving.

Technically, if EUR/USD bulls manage to return the pair's quotes within the medium-term consolidation range of 1.125-1.15, the second false breakdown of its lower limit in a month will indicate the weakness of their opponents.

The euro slightly recovered its position in pair with the US dollar, however, but remained in the side channel after the news that a trade agreement between the US and China could be concluded in the near future. Yesterday, American President Donald Trump held a meeting with Vice Premier of China Liu He in the oval office of the White House, and then gave comments on the eve of the announcement of the date of the summit.

According to the statement of the American leader, it will be a great agreement that suits both parties, since the negotiations are going very well. If a trade agreement is reached with China, a summit will be held, but no provisional date has yet been set. Trump said that the results of the negotiations will be known in the next four weeks.

The American President also returned to the topic of the wall on the border with Mexico, once again reminding everyone that if the Mexican side does not help with the construction of the wall, the White House administration will decide on imposing duties on its cars.

Last night, a number of speeches were made by representatives of the Federal Reserve System, who generally spoke about the same thing, outlining their vision of the future of the American economy.

Speaking at a conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, its President John Williams said that the outlook for the economy is positive, as unemployment remains low and there are no signs of strong inflationary pressures. Williams expects GDP growth of about 2% in 2019.

Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said on Thursday that an increase in interest rates by the US Central Bank is still possible this year. However, it will be necessary provided that the economy meets expectations. Mester also considers the current completion of interest rate increases by the Fed to be entirely appropriate.

The Fed representative expects continued economic growth and a strong labor market and predicts that inflation will remain around 2%, while GDP growth in 2019 will be above 2%, as the economy is doing well, and the recent weakness is probably temporary.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. The bears did not succeed in consolidating below the middle of the lateral channel in the area of 1.1220 yesterday, and today this is their main task. Only under this condition will the pressure on risky assets continue, which may lead to a renewal of the lower boundary in the area of 1.1185. Under the scenario of the upward correction of the euro, the upper limit of the side channel in the region of 1.1250 remains good resistance.

We should not forget about the important report on the change in the number of people employed in the US non-farm sector, which will be published this afternoon. Even a weak report on the state of the labor market can lead to a strengthening of the US dollar, as the recent trend has been reduced to the demand for safe-haven assets with the release of weak but important fundamental data.

Today, the main event for participants of the foreign exchange market will undoubtedly be the publication of statistical data on the US labor market in March.

It is expected that the current release will attract more attention of investors after the failed February release with the number of new jobs at the level of 20,000.

Economists expect employment growth of 175,000 people. However, this will be a decrease when compared with the average of last year.

The slowdown in the labor market is usually a lagging indicator of the approach or the actual occurrence of a recession in the US economy.

A sharp decrease in the number of new jobs is not a sign of a recession in the event that such a monthly drop is only one-time in nature and has specific reasons in the form of a "shutdown" or bad weather. The repetition of the February situation could be a wake-up signal for the American economy.

"If the March employment report does not reach expectations, we will get two weak indicators in a row. This may revive concerns about the recession and throw the yield of 10-year Treasuries back to their minimum at the end of March," the experts of Bank Credit Agricole noted.

According to experts, if the labor market data is confirmed at the level of forecasts or turns out to be better than them, then this will give the dollar an upward momentum. The failed non-farm can cause a negative market reaction and provoke a weakening of the greenback, but in the current situation – with the threat of a recession – in many countries of the world, there is simply no alternative to the dollar, so it will be bought in the fall.

In addition, a weak release can cause a serious blow to the risk appetite of investors, which again will play in favor of the "American".

In the first half of the day, pound buyers failed to get above the resistance of 1.3122, which led to a downward correction in the pair and also missed the support range of 1.3072. At the moment, it is best to return to pound purchases after fixing above the resistance of 1.3072, and the emerging divergence on the MACD indicator can help the bulls in this. In this scenario, the demand for the pound will lead to a test of the maximum of the day in the area of 1.3122 and to an update of the level of 1.3160. In the case of a further decline of the pair after the report on the American labor market, it is best to return to long positions on the rebound from 1.3030 and 1.2979.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bears held the resistance at 1.3122, which led to a gradual decrease in the pound and consolidation below the support at 1.3072. An unsuccessful attempt to grow above this range in the second half of the day will be a direct signal to open new short positions in GBP/USD in order to update the lows around 1.3030 and 1.2979, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of a return to 1.3072, new sales of the pound can be considered from the high of the day in the area of 1.3122 and a rebound from the resistance of 1.3160.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted below 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates that the bearish trend in the market remains.

Bollinger bands

The breakthrough of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.3054 will lead to a new wave of the pound decline. The growth will be limited by the average border of the channel around 1.3103.

In the first half of the day, there was absolute calm. Only a breakthrough above the resistance of 1.1248 will form a new upward wave with the update of the highs in the area of 1.1270 and 1.1294, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of a further euro decline in the afternoon, which may occur during the data on the American labor market, it is best to consider new long positions provided a false breakdown is formed in the support area of 1.1218 or to rebound from the lower border of the side channel in the area of 1.1186.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

While trade will be conducted below the range of 1.1248, the pressure on the euro will remain, and good data on the American labor market will lead to an update of the middle of the wide side channel of 1.1218, as well as its lower limit of 1.1186, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the growth scenario is higher than 1.1248 in the second half of the day, it is best to consider short positions on the rebound from the resistance of 1.1269 and 1.1294.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Only a breakthrough of the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1218 will increase the pressure on the euro.

The pound today reacts poorly to the news background regarding the prospects Brexit. Despite a series of encouraging news, the British currency paired with the dollar is leaning towards the base of the 30th figure, with a clear intention to test the mark of 1.29. Such illogical movement of the British, in my opinion, is due to the fixation of profits on the eve of the weekend, which promise to be saturated and certainly not boring.

In general, the situation remains unstable, so many traders do not risk leaving open positions until Monday – this is understandable and justified. At the same time, the southern dynamics of the pair does not reflect the overall fundamental picture of the pound, because judging by the rhetoric of the leaders of London and Brussels, the parties are ready to postpone the Brexit date – the only question is the deadline. In other words, the main risk of Brexit, in general, is leveled, and this fact should provide support to the pound. Therefore, today's bearish sentiments should be treated with great caution, as buyers can take the initiative at any time.

Among the variety of comments and voiced scenarios, you can isolate just one. We are talking about an unexpected proposal by the head of the European Council Donald Tusk to grant a so-called "flexible" delay: Brussels gives London a year to approve a deal with the additional opportunity to announce its withdrawal earlier than the designated deadline. According to Tusk, this is his almost personal initiative, so the final decision on this issue should be taken by EU leaders at an extraordinary summit to be held on April 12. Despite such an important clarification, it should be understood that the head of the European Council would not have risked voicing such an initiative without prior coordination with key European players. And even more so – Donald Tusk, who takes the strictest position in relation to London compared to other representatives of the EU leadership. There is only one phrase that the people calling for hard Brexit, "prepared a separate place in hell." After that, a scandal broke out, but the head of the European Council did not change his position on this issue.

In other words, the option of "flexible delay", by all appearances, is now the working scenario of Brussels. And although this plan at first glance looks logical, it has several flaws, and therefore some European politicians criticized it. The fact is that if Brussels and London accept the offer of Tusk, then Britain will be forced to participate in elections to the European Parliament (which will be held on May 23). At the same time, the "flexible plan" allows MEPs from the UK to resign as soon as the country leaves the Alliance. The vacant seats will be taken by deputies from other EU countries. And at this stage, there are too many questions, as such an approach may eventually distort the configuration of political alliances in the European Parliament. In addition, the participation of the British representatives in the European legislature looks at least ridiculous, since the country has "one foot" already withdrawn from the Alliance.

Nevertheless, despite all the contradictions, the participation of Britain in these elections is legally inevitable. Moreover, according to preliminary data, Theresa May has already given her consent to the electoral process, although she clarified that this situation is "not in the interests of the parties." The fact is that the British Prime Minister is trying to "negotiate" a short-term extension of the negotiation period – until June 30. But this date is unlikely to suit Europe – on the one hand, the elections to the European Parliament, which will take place just a week before the deadline, and on the other hand – the absolute uncertainty that the deputies of the House of Commons will approve the deal before the end of the allotted period.

Apparently, Theresa May understands and accepts these arguments. It is likely that she will agree with the proposal of Tusk, but she will try to add her own condition – let's say if the House of Commons does vote for the approval of the deal until May 22, the UK will not participate in the elections to the European Parliament, and the Alliance will "release" London for all four parties. Whether Brussels will go to May's meeting in this request is an open question.

Thus, despite the general mood of the parties not to bring the situation to a tough Brexit, the situation is not entirely unambiguous. By and large, it all depends on the outcome of the negotiations between Theresa May and the Labor Party, which take place today and will continue on the weekend. If they can find a compromise solution (this is unlikely, but still), then the events will unfold in a rapid manner. Otherwise, May will have to agree to the elections to the European Parliament and over the next months, to look for a common denominator between the Labor Party and the Conservatives.

Bitcoin has been trading sideways at the price of $5.000. Anyway, in our opinion it is very risky condition for buying due to climatic actions in the background and potential overbought condition.

According to the H1 time-frame, we found potential head and shoulders pattern in creation, which is sign that BTC may be under the distribution process. Also, there is potential wedge pattern on the right shoulder, which is another sign for potential weakness on BTC. Resistance levels are seen at the price of $5.070 and $5.323. Key support levels are seen at the price of $4.777 and $4.652.

Trading recommendation: We are watching for potential breakout of the support at $4.777 to confirm downward movement and potential test of $4.652.

GBP/USD has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of 1.3030. We are still expecting lower

According to the H1 time-frame, we found the breakout of the upward trendline, which is good confirmation of the selling pressure. ADX reading is above 30 level, which is another indication that downward trend and momentum are strong. Support levels are seen at the price of 1.3016 and 1.2980. Short-term resistance is seen at the price of 1.3120.

Trading recommendation: We are still holding our sell position from 1.3138 and we placed the stop lose on the breakeven. Now, we got risk free position. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3015 and 1.2980.

Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1.284.00 as we expected. Key support at the price of $1.280.0 is on the test.

According to the Daily time-frame, we found critical support at the price of $1.280.00. The level of $1.280.00 is the 48-day low and the neckline from the head and shoulders pattern in the background, which makes this level even more important because it is confirming different kind of supports. We are waiting for potential breakout of the $1.280.00 to open sell deals. Key supports are found at the price of $1.258.20 (Fibonacci expansion 100%) and $1.218.00 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). Key resistance is seen at the price of $1.324.00.

Trading recommendation: We are waiting for potential breakout of the $1.280.00 to look for sell opportunities with targets at $1.258.20 and $1.218.00.

At the moment, the price of black gold reached multi-month highs but can not decide on the future direction. According to some analysts, the global market is on the verge of collapse.

Thanks to the efforts of the world central banks, financial assets worldwide have risen in price. This trend has affected oil futures, which are also a financial asset. However, the high probability of a slowdown in the global economy makes its own adjustments to a positive picture. In the case of such a scenario, we should expect a collapse in oil prices since a slowing economy consumes less oil and the rise in prices of black gold has negatively affected economic growth.

Experts find it difficult to answer what factors can trigger this process. Due to the general uncertainty, the price of black gold is also in a "suspended" state. It is not known where the pendulum will swing if either in the direction of growth or decline.

There is a shortage of heavy raw materials in the world oil market, which is mined in Venezuela and Iran. The reason for this is the US sanctions against these countries, as well as the reduction in production of OPEC + led by Saudi Arabia. The deficient high-sulfur oil, whose indicative grade is Dubai, has been trading at its lowest level since December 2018 in relation to the North Sea Brent. At the same time, the shale boom recorded in the USA provides impressive volumes of light low-sulfur oil supply.

Dubai's cost relative to Brent contributed to the discrepancy in the profitability of oil refining into gasoline and fuel oil, noted in the news agency, Bloomberg. Typically, more fuel oil is produced from sulfur oil, which is used as a marine fuel. At the moment, the margin is in the red. At the same time, the margin of gasoline production increased to $7 in March 2019, whereas it was at about $2 a barrel at the end of January of this year.

Experts pay attention to the fact that the distillation of low-sulfur oil and the benchmark for which is Brent, usually gives more automotive fuel than varieties like Dubai. Due to this, the price of Brent was higher than the cost of the Middle Eastern brand, analysts emphasized.

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the American dollar and began the process of falling in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1177) after the rebound from the retracement level of 76.4% (1.1241). Today, there is no indicator of the emerging divergences. The closing of the pair on April 5 above the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of the European currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.1281).

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Daily

As seen on the 24-hour chart, the pair maintains the chances of further decline towards the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.0941). However, the previous low of quotations does not let the pair below itself. Before the pair closes above the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1285), however, the probability of further decline remains high. The consolidation of quotations above the Fibo level of 127.2% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the EU currency and expect some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1553).

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Trading advice:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1241 if the pair disconnects from the level of 100.0%. The stop-loss order should be placed below the level of 1.1177.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1177 as the pair completed the rebound from the retracement level of 76.4%. The stop-loss order should be placed above the level of 1.1241.

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and closed below the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3094) after the formation of a bearish divergence at the MACD indicator. However, the second bullish divergence at the CCI indicator has already been formed, which allows traders to count on a reversal in favor of the British pound and consolidation above the Fibo level of 76.4%.

The Fibo grid is based on the grounds of extremums from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

As seen on the hourly chart, the pair's quotes fell to the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3060). The bullish divergence at the MACD indicator and the pair's rebound from the Fibo level of 76.4% worked in favor of the pound sterling and the growth process began in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.3121). The retreat of quotations from this level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the American currency and a return to the retracement level of 76.4%.

The Fibo grid is based on the grounds of extremums from March 11, 2019, and March 13, 2019.

Trading recommendations:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with a target at 1.3121 and a stop-loss order under the retracement level of 76.4% since the pair has completed the rebound from the level of 1.3060 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3060 and a stop-loss order above the level of 61.8% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.3121 (hourly chart).

The GBP/USD currency pair continues to be thrown from side to side, as traders find it difficult to understand what awaits the UK in the future, what will be the result of the three-year Brexit procedure. According to the latest opinion polls, it becomes clear that most of the UK population is already tired of the Brexit topic. If some time ago, the words "unclear" and "uncertain" prevailed in the moods of the population, now most of the respondents describe the current situation as "chaos". Moreover, the majority of respondents believe that discussions on the country's withdrawal from the EU already have a negative impact on their mental health. Meanwhile, the UK is preparing for mass riots, which are possible against the backdrop of all that is happening in the country's politics. The European Union continues to offer options for a prolonged postponement of Brexit, but London is not satisfied with this option. Like many other options on the "divorce" with the European Union, which was rejected by the Parliament. We still believe that the pound sterling is prone to fall, just as long as some invisible forces keep it from conquering new lows. But these forces will not be able to restrain the pound forever. It seems that at one point, the pair will simply collapse and update the lows on January 3.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3062

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3123

R2 - 1.3184

R3 - 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD once again changed the direction of movement and fixed below the MA. At the same time, it was not possible to overcome the level of 1.3062, and now the pair can at least begin a correction, and, as a maximum once again gain a foothold above the moving average. Not a good time to bid.

Buy-positions can be considered after fixing the pair above the moving average, but only with a "short" target – 1.3184.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The higher linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Bitcoin is still trading at near $5,000 being held by the dynamic support levels. BTC is likely to extend the impulsive bullish gain, though correctional moves and indecision are slowing down the steady uptrend.

The price recently rejected off the $4,800 area holding inside the Kumo Cloud support along the way. Trading inside the Kumo Cloud indicates that the bullish bias is still strong to push the price higher. The price is currently being held by the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line whereas the Chikou Span is currently being held by the trendline. As the price breaks above $5,000, all technical indicators clearly signal a further bullish impulsive move. BTC price could reach $5,250 and later move towards $5,500 in the future.

The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.6765. On the H1 chart, the level of 0.6765 coincides with 23.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is above the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. But, major support is seen at the level of 0.6735. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 0.6735 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6842. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.6842, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.6911 in order to test the double top.

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the levels of 0.7046 and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, the major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards thae first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

It seems that the bidders began to understand the words of Jean-Claude Juncker that there would be no further delay and the UK should have decided by April 12 on how it will be evicted from the European "hostel". Also, many began to understand what the reservation means that Europe is ready for a "hard" Brexit. Many recalled that Europe has managed to adopt several dozen legislative acts designed to minimize negative consequences should the United Kingdom to leave the European Union without an agreement. However, the UK itself did nothing of the kind and only engaged in endless chatter about the feasibility of Brexit and the like. Many in London are still talking about the second referendum. In other words, "hard" Brexit is becoming more and more real every day and clearly, London is not yet ready for it. At the same time, there is no clarity of what to do, since in London they only continue to talk and it is not surprising that the pound went down as the whole situation was realized.

Yet, the single European currency looked much better, although data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States were much better than predicted. Their total number decreased not by 1 thousand, but by 48 thousand. At the same time, the number of initial applications decreased by 10 thousand, which should have increased by 4 thousand. The number of repeated applications decreased to 38 thousand instead of decreasing by 5 thousand. Apparently, such good data, especially on the eve of today's publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor, forced many to adjust their plans and take into account the high probability that actual labor market data will differ from the forecast data. And significantly. This is a kind of uncertainty, and in such conditions, nobody wants to risk. At the same time, the minutes of the meeting of the European Central Bank published yesterday left everyone indifferent, as it was no different from the statements that Mario Draghi had already made. So, nobody saw anything new there. Only another confirmation of the fact that the European Central Bank, in fact, resumes the program of quantitative easing.

Therefore today, all attention will only be on the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor, especially since no more interesting data comes out. It is clear that yesterday's data on applications for benefits somewhat correct the expectations on the content of the report but they correct them for the better. Moreover, the forecasts themselves are moderately optimistic. Indicators such as the unemployment rate and the growth rate of the average hourly wage should remain unchanged. However, the average working week may increase from 34.4 hours to 34.5 hours. That is, Americans are beginning to work more and therefore earn more. Consequently, it is worth waiting for the growth of retail sales and other consumer spending and with them the growth of company profits. Moreover, 180 thousand new jobs must be created outside agriculture compared with 20 thousand in the previous month, which looks wonderful altogether. In the whole report, there can be only one alarming moment. We are talking about the share of labor in the total population, which can be reduced from 63.2% to 62.9%. However, no one will pay attention to this against the background of the growing number of new jobs.

Thus, even if the content of the report coincides with forecasts, it is worth waiting for the decline of the single European currency to 1.1200. It is quite possible to decrease to 1.1175 if the data turns out to be better than forecast.

The pound should go down to 1.3050 and there is a chance that it will drop to 1.3025 if the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor turns out to be better than expected.

The Brexit theme remains to be the center of attention. Despite the active negotiations between May and Corbin, there is no breakthrough in the issue of an agreement with the EU. May said that she would ask the EU for a new postponement of the exit from the EU. Both officials are trying to find a solution without a new referendum.

The US economy is clearly showing a slowdown in growth as all the latest data speak of this.

The official employment report for March will be released today at 13:30 London time. Yet, the forecasts have already been adjusted down to +150k jobs.

The report on the US labor market is one of the key benchmarks for investors, which can bring both good news and bad. One of which is to strengthen the positive sentiment that dominates after the Fed refuses to continue the growth of rates return panic if it turns out that the labor market and has moved into a contraction phase. While the forecasts are favorable, It is predicted that the number of new jobs will grow by no less than 180 thousand after a failed 20 thousand a month ago despite the fact that the ADP report turned out to be noticeably weaker than expected. A rollback up is more than likely to occur.

At the same time, the dynamics of average wages are even more interesting. Sure growth of 3.4% pushes up inflation expectations, the yield on 5-year bonds Tips gives a chance to see inflation in April, which will somewhat expand the range of opportunities for the Fed.

Events such as the decline in GDP growth rates, the growth of the budget deficit, the inversion of the yield spread, and other unpleasant factors increase tensions and expectations that the recession will come soon. Therefore, wage growth is regarded by the markets as one of the few real possibilities to keep consumer demand high. The decrease in this indicator can dramatically increase panic and cause an outflow of capital from stock markets, as it confirms the course of the world economy to a new economic crisis.

EUR / USD pair

The ECB expressed confidence that the main risks came from external factors including Brexit, protectionism, and a slowdown in China. These risks primarily hit the manufacturing industry, while the services sector continues to go up, moreover, some of the internal growth factors have gradually begun to disappear.

Also, the ECB focuses on some positive factors, such as a positive result of fiscal measures, stabilization in the automotive industry in Germany, increased employment and wages, and favorable financing conditions. It seems that the ECB is quite pleased with the development of events but at the same time leaves the opportunity to expand the use of TLTRO at the next meeting in June.

Anxiety on the ECB may increase due to lower inflation expectations. However, a slowdown in inflation to 0.8% in March is not at all what the regulator needs but fundamental factors make it possible to rely on the temporary nature of this slowdown which will resume in the long run. First of all, we are talking about strong wage growth, which does not turn into consumer price growth. This is a serious problem that may indicate an increase in fears due to the coming recession and decline in consumer activity as a result. In short, people prefer not to spend but to save.

In general, the likelihood of further easing by the ECB remains high. The dynamics of the EUR/USD pair will depend on both external factors while the reduction of global threats will support the euro and plans of the ECB. If there are signs that the ECB is preparing an expansion of the TLTRO at the June meeting, the euro may well fall to 1.10 or lower.

Today, the attention of the markets is directed to the US employment report and before its publication. The euro will be traded in the range of 1.1205/50 and exit can take place in any direction, depending on the report.

GBP / USD pair

Intensive negotiations between Theresa May and Labor leader Corbin did not lead to a concrete result. The parties confined themselves to short statements that the negotiations were productive and did not reveal any specifics. Today the meeting will continue and it is obvious that British politicians have finally realized the seriousness of the current situation. The EU did not blackmail. The belligerent statements of the British side at the preliminary stage did not impress anyone and suddenly turned out that the prospect of withdrawing from the EU without a deal, which became more than real. It would cause the UK economy much more damage than previously thought.

The pound is trading neutral with a slight decrease as every day the prospects for reaching an acceptable solution are reduced. From the resistance level of 1.3120/22, a decline is likely to occur to 1.3062 and further down to 1.3012.

For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a high volatility of 130 points, as a result of having a downward impulse movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the one-day respite in volatility gave way to another surge, which was to be expected. What we have is testing the level of the cluster of 1.3200 (20), where the quotation felt resistance and rolled us back to the level of 1.3060. On the other hand, the information and news background yesterday was busy with understanding the earlier statement by the Head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, who noted that April 12 is the deadline for approval of the exit agreement by the House of Commons. If this does not happen by this time, then there will be no more short delay. In fact, this is one of the reasons for yesterday's decline in the pound. Since the news flow was empty, there were no statements from high-ranking officials either.

Today, the day began with a new drop of Brexit, President of the European Council Donald Tusk considers it possible to offer Britain a "flexible" 12-month delay in leaving the European Union. The idea of Tusk will be the subject of discussion at an emergency summit of EU leaders on April 10. It should be understood that the words of Tusk were built in such a way that it is not clear whether Britain is obliged to accept the existing agreement before April 12. At the same time, it is also worth considering that a weightier voice in the person of European Commission Head Jean-Claude Juncker, has already stated that there will not be a delay if the agreement is not accepted. Thus, draw your own conclusions.

In terms of the economic calendar, we have important statistics from the United States regarding Non Farm Payrolls data, where significant growth is expected from 20K to 180K. On this news, speculators are already predicting a dollar strengthening, which is what we expect.

The upcoming trading week expects to be intense both in terms of statistics and on the information background, where the fate of long-playing Brexit will be decided. Displayed below are the most relevant events of the week.

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that after the impulse move, the quotation felt a temporary support in the region of 1.3060, where we saw a pullback against the background of overheating. It is likely to assume that the quotation on the general information and news background will try to turn around, where traders are looking for fixation below 1.3060 with the prospect of a move to 1.3000.

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- Purchase items are not currently being considered. Possible consideration will occur in the case of a slowdown in the region of 1.3000.

- Positions for sale, as written in the previous review, traders considered a point to enter 1.3150. This is a breakdown of the existing stagnation. Now, we already have a position, and the prospect remains in the direction of 1.3000. If we do not have deals, we will wait for a fixation lower than 1.3060.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there was an upward interest against the background of a rollback in the short term. Meanwhile, intraday and mid-term perspective shows a downward interest against the general background of the market.

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(April 5 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 53 points. It is likely to assume that against the background of Non Farm, and the general information background, volatility will remain at a high level.

The impulse can come from the news on Brexit - Theresa May and the opposition leader Corbyn try to find a compromise that suits the majority and from the news on the US economy - today the report on employment for March at 11:30 London time

The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement on Friday, April 5, and also failed to overcome the moving average line. Yesterday was "empty" in terms of macroeconomic reports. Thus, traders resumed selling the euro precisely against the background of a lack of fundamental support for the European currency. Important releases in the United States are scheduled on the last trading day of the week. First, there will be a report on the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector. After the failure of the previous report (20k), the March value should be much higher. The forecast is 180k. However, the real value may differ from the forecast, and depending on which way it will differ, the reaction of traders will also be different. Secondly, there will be a report on the change in the average wage for March. An increase of 3.4% is expected. These two reports can greatly affect the movement of the pair. For the euro, on the basis of yesterday's and the day before yesterday's trading, the main chance lies in the weakness of the designated reports. In this case it will be possible to count on a strengthening of the euro currency. But from a technical point of view, it will be difficult for the pair to overcome the Murray level of "-1/8" - 1,1200 - this is the lower limit of a strong support zone, which the pair cannot overcome for several months.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,1200

S2 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1.1261

R3 - 1,1292

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to consider trading for a decline with targets of 1,1200 and 1,1169, before the new upward turn of the Heiken-Ashi indicator.

Buy positions are recommended to be considered not earlier than when traders have overcome the moving average line with targets of 1.1261 and 1.1292. In this case, the trend for the instrument will change to an upward one, and the euro will have a small chance of strengthening.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The higher linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

On April 4, the GBP / USD pair lost about 85 bp, and there was a failed attempt to break through the upper line forming a tapering triangle. Thus, the chances of building a downward wave have increased, but at the same time it will be difficult for the instrument to also pass the lower triangle forming line. A few days before the area of maximum narrowing of the triangle, the pair can bargain inside it. A further breakthrough of one of the lines will tell the market which way the instrument can move in the next few days. Any news on Brexit can greatly affect the movement of the tool. Although, at present, there are no new important messages.

Purchase goals:

1.3350 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3454 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2961 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

Wave pattern involves the construction of a downward trend.

However, as long as the pair does not break through one of the lines of the triangle, trading can take place inside it. This will, in turn, limit the markets of the possibility to open various medium-term and long-term transactions.

Yesterday's ECB minutes and data on the US labor market once again led to a demand for the US dollar that quickly ended, which made it possible for us to return to the resistance level of 1.1218 by the end of the day. To continue the upward trend, it is necessary to break through the resistance of 1.1248. A consolidation at this level will lead to a new upward wave with the update of the highs in the area of 1.1270 and 1.1294, where I recommend to take profits. In case of the euro declines in the first half of the day, it is best to consider new long positions, provided that a false breakdown is formed in the support area of 1.1218 or to rebound from the lower border of the side channel in the area of 1.1186.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Bears will emerge in the resistance area of 1.1248, and while the trade will be conducted below this range, we can expect that the pressure on the euro will continue. However, the main task for the first half of the day will be to return below the middle of the wide side channel of 1.1218, which will increase the pressure on the euro and lead to a test of its lower boundary in the area of 1.1186, where I recommend taking profits. When the growth scenario is above 1.1248 in the first half of the day, it is best to consider short positions to rebound from resistances of 1.1269 and 1.1294.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is very low, which does not provide signals for entering the market.

Yesterday, buyers of the pound enjoyed a support of 1.3072, which I paid attention to in my review. Now we see the formation of the lower boundary of a large ascending channel formed from the March 29 low. If it declines to the support area of 1.3072, you can look again at long positions in GBP/USD, but the main task will be to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.3122, which will lead to renewal of highs around 1.3160 and 1.3195, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound declines below the level of 1.3072, you can buy to rebound from lows of 1.3030 and 1.2979.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Failure to consolidate above the resistance of 1.3122 will be a signal to sell the British pound, but the main task will be a decline and a test of support at 1.3072, a breakthrough of which will resume a larger downward wave in GBP/USD with updated lows at 1.3030 and 1.2979, where I recommend to take profits. In case the pound increases above a resistance of 1.3122 in the first half of the day, it is best to consider new short positions to rebound from highs of 1.3160 and 1.3195.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30-day and 50-day moving average, which creates a number of problems for buyers of the pound. A medium breaktrough will be an additional signal to buy.

Bollinger bands

In the scenario of the next wave of the pound's decline, support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator near 1.3051. A break of the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.3122 will increase the demand for the pound.

Today, all the attention of the markets will be drawn to the publication of data on employment in the US, which may for some time revive the financial markets in the wake of high uncertainty in the trade negotiation process between the US and China in recent months, as well as the UK's exit from the EU that signals about the slowdown of the global economy clogged into narrow ranges.

According to the presented forecasts, it is expected that the US economy has received 175,000 new jobs in March against the value of 20,000 in February. The number of people employed in the private sector increased by 170,000 against 25,000 a month earlier. It is assumed that the unemployment rate will remain at the same level of 3.8%.

The data on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits showed their decrease to 202,000 against the forecast increase of 216,000 and the previous upward revised value of 212,000, which show that the situation on the labor market still remains above the average values. Therefore, it is likely that the values for non-farm employment presented today may be higher than the forecast. Against this background, the US dollar may receive local support, adding to all major currencies. But on the whole, the risks of weaker numbers are also present despite the possible positive numbers and the reason for this may already be a slowdown in the growth of the American economy, which after the 2008-09 crisis, there was a ten-year recovery and then growth reached a peak.

We believe that if it is dynamic, the estimated probable movement of the US dollar will be limited since the uncertainties listed at the beginning of the article do not allow the markets to clearly understand what should be expected. Thus, the dollar can actually grow up and fall.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair remains in a very narrow range of 1.1215-1.1245. If US employment data is strong, the pair may fall to 1.1175 and break the 1.1215 mark. Moreover, if they disappoint, the pair may rise to 1.1280 and above the level of 1.1245.

The AUD/USD pair gets support in the wake of hopes for resolving trade conflicts between the US and China on trade. It may receive additional impetus to growth on the wave of weak data from the US and continue to grow to 0.7145 and then to 0.7165. However, the pair may locally fall to 0.7090 if the data is higher than the forecast.

On Thursday, April 4, trading ended for the pair EUR / USD by 10 bp decrease. Thus, the instrument presumably remains within the framework of the upward wave c. However, as before, I warn that a successful attempt to break through the minimum of wave 5 will lead to the complication of the entire downward trend section. The news background puts great importance to the euro. Without it, the currency of the European Union is very difficult to grow. Today, in America, there are data on wages and Nonfarm Payrolls for March. In the case of low values of these reports, the euro can get the necessary market support. However, in any case, I recommend cautious trading in the coming days, especially purchases.

Sales targets:

1.1177 - 100.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1448 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair supposedly completed the construction of wave b. Now, I recommend buying a pair with targets near the 1.1455 mark, which corresponds to the maximum of wave a, based on the construction of wave c. Purchases should not be large in volume, as the news background may not support the euro both today and in the following days, which may force the markets to switch to new sales.

Today the US Labor Department is due to release a Non-Farm Employment Change for March. The data of crucial importance will detemine the direction of USD/CAD in the coming days. Recently USD has been dominated by CAD which led to certain volatility and indecisiveness in the pair.

The US employment in the public and private sectors is expected to bounce in March following the lowest level in 17 months in February. Indeed, certain sectors like construction expanded significantly. The consensus suggests that the US economy added about 171,000 jobs in March. This is notable increase after minor employment growth of 20,000 jobs in February. Another important criterion for investors is average hourly earnings which are expected to edge down to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.4% while Unemployment Rate could remain flat at 3.8%.

The minor correction from 147.20 dipped just below the ideal 145.90 target (the low was seen at 145.65). We are now look for a break above 146.96 to confirm the next impulsive rally higher to 148.50 and 151.50 is developing.

Only an unexpected break below key-support at 144.92 will shift the bias towards the downside again for more downside pressure towards 143.79 and likely closer to 141.00 before renewed upside momentum should be expected.

Low volatility keeps EUR/JPY in a very narrow range, which there seem to be no escape from at this point. EUR/JPY looks toppish near 125.45 and renewed downside pressure is expected from here, but we need a break below minor support at 124.94 and more importantly below support at 124.45 to trigger the next larger move. A break below 124.45 will call for a decline to 123.65 and longer term likely lower towards 120.95, before the correction from 127.50 completes.

That said, we need to be alert to a break above 126.18, that will confirm that the correction from 127.50 already has completed and will shift the bias to up for a retest of the 127.50 peak on the way higher to 129.50 and 131.50.

At the GBP/USD market another move down is still on the table as the consolidation zone boundary is still the local technical support zone, located between the levels of 1.2938 - 1.2959. The pair keeps trading inside of a narrow range between the levels of 1.2978 - 1.3196 and the local trend line is still providing the dynamic support for the price. The momentum is still weak and negative despite the oversold market conditions at this timeframe. The larger time frame trend, like daily and weekly, remains bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3460

WR2 - 1.3363

WR1 - 1.3172

Weekly Pivot - 1.3070

WS1 - 1.2882

WS2 - 1.2787

WS3 - 1.2567

Trading recommendations:

The market is now range bounded, so any strategy for the market is consolidation will be the correct one to use: buy during the oversold conditions and sell during the overbought conditions. Please keep an eye on the trading range breakout as it might be a false one.