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The resumption of Parliament signals the return of MPs to Ottawa, the unofficial launch of the 2015 election campaign and a bottomless well of punditry. Nothing brings out the know-it-alls like being within eyesight of an election – present company included.

Newspapers, tablets, television screens and, now, even wristwatches will soon be crammed with acres of unsolicited advice, warning party leaders what they simply must do in this coming parliamentary session to achieve electoral success next October. Some of the counsel will be competent. Much of it will suffer from a remarkable sameness. Nearly all of it will be guilty of two mistakes.

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First, there will be too much of it. Complex challenges such as winning an election – or honestly identifying your place of residence if you’re a senator – are best tackled with simplicity. The return of Parliament signals that we’ve entered the season of OBT – One Big Thing. With only a year left until election day there’s no room for dozens of adjustments. It’s time to isolate on the OBT – that one big thing that matters most. And to get it right.

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Second, don’t overlook the Don’t. Advice of any sort whether it’s related to politics, parenting, music, sports wagering or unrequited love (the only five topics worthy of anyone’s attention) is often honeyed in a paste of Do – Do this, Do that, and for goodness sake, Do it urgently. But winning campaigns frequently comes down to what is not done. It comes down to the Don’t.

With these two principles in mind, we offer up our single Don’t to each of the major political parties for this crucial pre-campaign session of Parliament.

Conservatives – Don’t stop attacking Justin Trudeau. Since winning his party’s leadership, the new Liberal leader has kept his party firmly notched in first place. In some polls their lead is large. In others, it’s been modest. But month after month Trudeau has kept his team consistently on top. Anyone who imagines the Conservatives can return to power without first lassoing Trudeau’s star out of the heavens is living a fantasy. Detestable though it might be, Harper’s best chance of coming first is to disqualify the man who has shoved him to second.

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Some observers have argued that Conservative efforts to demolish Trudeau’s image might backfire by reinforcing Harper’s high negatives. It’s a legitimate worry. But it is one the prime minister doesn’t have the luxury of indulging. Practically speaking there is no path to Conservative victory that doesn’t go through – and over – the young Liberal leader. The government must use this new parliamentary session to tear him down. Or they’ll never get the chance to build themselves back up.

Liberals – Don’t quit taking risks. With pleasing poll numbers and the sure knowledge that opponents will be hunting for Trudeau’s head, it will be tempting to start to play things safe. Campaign strategists will naturally seek to limit the likelihood of self-inflicted wounds and shield against unforced errors. But this sort of thinking can become self-defeating. From legalization of pot to vanquishing his entire Senate caucus, Trudeau has shown a flair for the unexpected. Such audaciousness was needed to drag his party out of the meteor crater it was left in after the 2011 election. It is needed still.

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Seats count more than polls. And for now the Liberals remain the third party. Trudeau and his team will need to take one or two more risks at least in the coming session to keep the pressure on their opponents and fortify his image as a vehicle for change. The best way to defend a lead is to play like you’re losing. Team Trudeau’s slogan of ‘Hope and Hard Work’ is built on the premise that they haven’t won anything yet.

New Democrats – Don’t forget the Left. In the Ontario election, Andrea Horwath went looking for Liberal voters and forgot to mind her own. The result was disaster. Tom Mulcair cannot afford to repeat her mistake – even if that means sacrificing his hopes of growing the NDP voter coalition to government-sized proportions.

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The dream of those who supported Jack Layton was that a modern New Democratic Party might seize the centre from the Liberals and transform Canada into a binary political state. For now, that dream must be paused. The Trudeau name is tempting to progressives and Mulcair competes poorly with his Liberal counterpart’s charisma. At this week’s national caucus Mulcair signalled that he will go after the Liberal leader with at least as much ferocity as the Conservatives. During the coming session he’ll need to show dyed-in-the-wool lefties that he will go after them also. There can be no taking his left flank for granted.

Three parties. Three Don’ts. And 12 months. The new session of Parliament gives each leader time to fix one big thing. We’ll know by Christmas if they’ve used it well.

Scott Reid is a principal at Feschuk.Reid and a CTV News political analyst. He was director of communications for former prime minister Paul Martin. Follow him on Twitter.com/_scottreid.

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