Lakers/Nuggets Game 6 Preview

Once again there will be a live chat tonight here for game six with myself and Jeremy of Roundball Mining Company, and while that is a good omen for the Lakers (the Lakers have yet to lose a game when this site has hosted a live blog) this will be the toughest win for them this season.

At this point, there are no secrets in the series about what is going to happen strategically, it’s about execution.

First, the Lakers are going to need to withstand the initial onslaught we can expect from Denver. LA needs to find a way to keep this thing close going into the fourth. While some people still question the mental makeup of Denver, if they have issues it will be in the fourth quarter, not the first.

Denver is going to trap Kobe again, and if he can continue to make his passes out of that toward the basket creating a 4 on 3, the Lakers will be fine. If the guys make the shots. But expect Denver to be more aggressive in its fronting and efforts to keep the ball out of the paint. At some point, the Lakers will need to make them pay with the open threes they will get.

Look for a steady diet of Billups. He will try to take control, and if need be the Lakers need to go with Kobe or Ariza on him.

One thing to watch — the team that gets to the line the most in the fourth has son four of the five games in the series. That is, the team that is aggressive and getting to the rack when it matters.

Here are few ideas from Drreyeye on what the Lakers need to do:

Defensively, the mantra is to keep ‘Melo from feeling too mellow without allowing the energy guys to look like superstars-especially on the boards.

Birdman needs to be grounded. Maybe ShanWOW can posterize him again. Those Nuggets with Thugget tendencies need to be detained–even as their tactics are exposed. The Lakers need to give the refs every opportunity to do the right thing by overmatching Nugget intensity.

The plan that has been most successful has been to match the Nuggs through three–and pull away in the fourth. If the Lakers could get a little more separation every quarter, it could be much more decisive, even boring. I personally would go for boring–if you don’t mind.

Darius pitches in with a few details on how to pull away.

*Attack Nene. Denver has proven to be a different team when Nene is in foul trouble. He’s key to their P&R and interior defense(s) and is their best passing AND finishing big man. Once Andersen comes in, they are more prone to giving up offensive boards and become less reliable with their interior rotations (they may get more blocks, but they also give up more lanes to the basket). Attack Nene on the block and off the dribble with Gasol and Kobe should do the same when handling the ball.

*Space the floor. Game 5 was the game where our spacing was best – especially in the deciding quarter. Denver decided that they would double team Kobe a lot last game and he killed them with the pass. I don’t expect we’ll see that same tactic from Denver as they should expect the same result. That means we need to give Kobe room to operate by spacing the floor. If we’re properly spaced Kobe will have the room he needs to attack the defender that’s on him and it will also give him the space to deal with the double team (if it does come) and stretch out the Nuggs D, making passing lanes more open.

*Stay aggressive with our SSZ. Denver says they adjusted and are ready for our trapping. Make them prove it. Earlier in the series *if* we doubled, it was soft. In game 5 we trapped the ball handler and made him panic. Let’s have more of that and see if they can still function with Ariza and Odom trapping Melo on the wing. Or Kobe and Odom/Gasol trapping Billups on the wing.

*End every stop with a rebound. Denver only stayed in Game 5 in the first half because they were grabbing a bunch of their own misses and making us pay. Secure the ball, push it back at them and then establish the post to play inside-out. We can create cross matches in transition and we can get them in scramble mode if we get up court quickly and start to move the ball.

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Now I will quickly get on my soapbox….

The one thing that’s really starting to bug me about the playoffs — the complaining about the officiating. This is not to defend the referees as being good or consistent, because they certainly haven’t been, or to say that something doesn’t need to be done about the officiating. But five games into the conference finals, the teams that have played better are up 3-2. In the Lakers series, the team that has been the aggressor with the game on the line has gotten the calls — game 5 that was the Lakers, game 4 that was the Nuggets. That should not be a shock, during the regular season the team that attacks the hole is the team that gets the calls. That hasn’t changed. As for the Kobe/LeBron conspiracy — they are two players that have the ball in their hands virtually every time down the floor, they shoot a lot and they drive the lane a lot. They get fouled a lot. That’s why they get the calls. The whining about the officiating (from coaches, media and fans) is just draining on me because the bottom line is the teams that play the best are still winning. And that’s the way it should be.

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One thing I haven’t really gotten to during the Finals here is getting up links to other stuff. So, here are a few.

• Dex, one of the favorite commenters here on the site, has started his own Blog. There really are few fresh voices on the Internet anymore, the level of pablum being discussed varies in quality, but few things are original. Dex is.

Kurt

97 responses to Lakers/Nuggets Game 6 Preview

About the officiating- Several different issues are being conlated here (and by Brian Tung in the last post). I whined about the refs the night of game 2, then in game 3 noted that the tendency reversed itself. The larger cacophany is not about teams being cost games (other than perhaps game 3 of Dallas- Denver), or conspiracies. Even of the author of the “50k buys you a playoff game article” said the refs didn’t cost the nuggets the game.

The issues are A- The games being called too close, B- inconsistency even within that (see hollinger’s column yesterday) and C- The bizarre state of the flagrant/technical foul revisions.

And contrary to what Brian Tung has said, we have been specific in laying out remedies: TRAIN NEW, YOUNGER TALENT. This only thing controversial about this idea is that the league seems dead set against it. The officiating WAS better years ago because the SAME people were calling the games with better eyesight and fresher legs. (In his article Hollinger states unequivocally that it is worse now than 5 years ago)

And since even Kurt concedes in this post that something must be done, we have to look at the history of this league and recognize that nothing will be done unless a cacophany is made about it. Until article after article pointing out these specific issues is thrown in their face they will tell us that we just don’t get the rules or something similarly useless. This isn’t whiningcare because I want the league to be credible. This is as big an issue as you can have, and to face this dimunition of talent with no recourse is infuriating. The league isn’t under a salary cap. Investing in improving this issue would only improve the product. This is a grass roots campaign.

It just happens to be occurring on top of the usual partisan whining that happens every season.

I’d really like the see the Lakers make a concetrated effort to get the ball to Pau anytime he’s being guarded by Anderson. The Birdman is obviously a great help defender but is only so-so one-on-one. Forcing him to defend Pau takes away a lot of his value giving help and we’ve seen that he really has struggled to handle Pau in the post.

Fast starts don’t seem to be as important in this series (or the CLE-ORL series for that matter)–4th quarter is EVERYTHING.

In the first 5 games, the team that comes out ahead in the first quarter is more likely to lose than win (DEN: Game 1 (L), 3 (L), 4 (W); LAL: Game 2 (L)). In EVERY game, the team that wins the scoring battle in the 4th quarter has won the game.

This fact supports many of the observations above:

1) attack the basket & get Denver in foul trouble early to keep key players off the court and disrupt their offense at the end of the game;

2) get Laker role players involved early to keep the Denver D honest when Kobe’s running the O in the final 5 minutes (see also CLE-Bron last night);

3) get under Denver’s skin early (read: Birdman, Nene, JR, Kmart, & Melo’s) and sow the seeds for the Nugg’s requisite fourth quarter meltdown (as in Games 1, 3, and 5).

Burgundy,
Give up your freethrow laments, in regards to Lamar – 1 for 2 has been his mantra over the last couple of years. We celebrate when he makes both. Of course, he frequently follows up with missing 2.

“Fast starts don’t seem to be as important in this series (or the CLE-ORL series for that matter)–4th quarter is EVERYTHING.”

Agreed in association with this series — though still I hearken back to the Rockets series and think of games that were seemingly over before they began when the Lakers came out flat as a pancake and paid for it.

Hopefully the Lakers will realize the importance of the early portion of tonight’s game too. Playing well — meaning staying close, at minimum — early on is critical, as is setting the stage early for success in the fourth.

The Lakers must set the tone early, going hard at Maybyner Hilario and others to try to set up foul problems, and conversely, L.A. needs to see Bynum avoid early fouls so he can stay on the floor in the first half as he did in Game 5.

Best case scenario has the Lakers close at the start of the fourth. Given this team’s penchant for taking its foot off of the gas when ahead, I’m more comfortable when they’re not coming down the stretch with a double-digit lead. They seem to stay more focused when they’re not trying to hold on.

Get the win tonight. I’d rather be wacthing baseball (or anything else) besides a Game 7 on Sunday.

I remember someone mentioning this on a previous thread (or was it an announcer?), but I thought it was a great point: the Lakers are so used to being longer and more athletic inside that they can usually get away with little tip-to-themselves defensive rebounds and then come away with it. Not so in this series. These Nuggets are nearly as long and athletic, and will take away a loose ball in the paint nearly every time.

The Laker bigs need to realize that and go out and get a hold of that ball.

phineas,
Lamar has made a total habit of one-handed rebound grabbing. I don’t remember the last time he grabbed a high rebound with both hands. He also uses Rodman’s trick of trying to tap it to himself. These habits mean he will lose a lot of rebounds in heavy traffic, but will get some he shouldn’t. We have to take the good with the bad.

Great piece by Austin Kent. I was always a “Shaq is what makes this team great” guy in the early part of this decade. But I always felt like he dissed Kobe, and that the haters were unfair. I think that’s why, like Austin, I feel like I’m “invested” in Kobe. I’ve rooted for him from the start. First, he was our hope for the future, then he became our standard bearer. Now he’s locked in a bitter fight for the legacy he’s always dreamed of. Ironic, then, that that legacy rests in the hands of Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, and the rest of the team.

Fish/Sasha/Luke please note: The key to this game will be getting the ball to Pau and Bynum early and often – and not in taking contested shots from the perimeter. I know you guys are due a good game and you want to be the Robert Horry of this Laker team, but please just settle for passing and only take shots when you are wide open – but for the love of God, if you are wide open, please hit them. Regards, A Laker Fan.

Denver is crazy agressive after the initial touch off the boards. How many times this series have we seen Pau or Drew come up with the board high with two hands only to have it poked free as they bring it down to the chest or to pass? Smart, when you’re playing guys inches shorter than our bigs, but definitely obnoxious.

In any event, we’re going to have to match Denver’s fierceness on the boards tonight.

Let’s close it out on the road and get rested for the Finals. Tonight’s game should be close, but we have to rebound with authority, keep the TOs low, hit our FTs and take advantage of every opportunity to push the ball on them and not let them push it on us. Lakers win baby!!!

The Post got me ready for today’s game and the links were great. I feel better about Fisher now, he is the calming force that we need. I just wish when he shoots that I would stop cringing like if it is Luke taking the shot. The Lakers do need to treat this game as a must win and be done with the Nuggets this year.

the lakers can’t let denver off to a blowout start – denver is one team that really feeds off the crowd well – we don’t need to get birdpoop excited or jr smith

i really hope the lakers play a hard fought focused game, if they even have a chance to win a championship they must prove that they can play equally as hard and win on the road, even if the got by denver in a game 7, they will not win against cleveland/magic by being a completely different team on the road

also once again – we can’t win without hitting some 3’s and outside shots by the role players, pau and kobe can’t win it for us, if fisher, odom, ariza play well otherwise we don’t

I am cautiously optimistic about tonight. Yes we have demonstrated a patten of not putting out unless we REALLY had to. However, with the rediscovery of a post game and memories of the Houston series still fresh in the Laker’s collective conciousness I believe there is a good chance that Game 6 is the last with the Nuggets.

Several have already pointed out the importance of Nene to Denver’s chances tonight and I agree. Similarly, how Bynum goes (effectiveness and managing his fouls) will be instrumental in how things end for us.

And It would not surprise me if the final score is not close regardless of who the victor is.

Lastly, one thing for certain is that tonight will be the last time this season that the Lakers and their fans will be subjected to that enormously annoying Nuggets announcer doing the pre-game introductions.

Regarding the review and changing of flagrant foul calls after the game – in the German (and maybe even other European countries’) pro soccer league, this is also done. Officials will look at video evidence of unsportsmanlike acts like elbows to the head or deliberately trying to hurt someone and then hand out fines or ban players from playing in a fitting amount of games. Most of these acts, if missed during the game, are uncovered by TV reports about said games afterwards.

I think the general idea to penalize unsportsmanlike conduct even if wasn’t fined as the game happened is generally a good idea. Otherwise it’s “if you don’t get caught, it’s OK”, which is not how sports should be played in my opinion. The question is whether there should be a defined set of standards regarding monetary fines and disqualifications or whether each instance should be ruled over seperately. But who gives the ruling then? Stern? A committee of league and Players Union officials?

Regarding Sasha, ideally you get him the ball when he has just one option left, just like the shot to end the half in game 5. In the other instances, he could have either shot or attacked the basket (yeah right!) or passed the ball, where he doesn’t have the confidence to make the right decision right now. If you put him in a position to just execute the obvious play, I believe he could be more successful. Also, tell him to not help from the strong side whn he’s covering a good shooter like Smith setting up in the corner.

Finally, I used the NBA 2K9 oracle on my PC to see how today’s game will go. 8 point halftime deficit, but plus 16 in the third behind a huge quarter by Lamar (9 points in the period) to take a solid lead, Kobe and Pau (4 blocks) help keep the Lakers ahead despite a strong game by Nene – 6 point win. All I can say is that the oracle has proven to be solid in some games, as I could have been heard cursing at Aaron Brooks a week and a half ago.

We don’t need anyone ‘coming to the aid of their teammate’. No one came to Kobe’s aid when he was low-bridged by Melo and we just stayed the course and beat them. If we react, we are just acting like the Nuggets. We have to be our own personality.

Just because we fans don’t view the Laker attitudes/actions as macho, doesn’t mean what they do is not effective.

* Lamar in warrior-mode. Attack, roar, dunk, get in the paint and play aggressive.

* Lots and lots and lots and lots of rebounds.

* Kobe trust his team mates and facilitate. Create shots for them, give them the ball.

* Perimeter shots that actually fall.

* Consistent refs. Call it lose, call it tight, either way, just call it even.

* Shannon Brown dunk over the Birdman. Twice.

* Aggressive and confident play from Andrew Bynum. You dunked over Shaq and then got in his face when he swung an elbow at you… find that energy and spirit again. And then dunk over Birdman, and block shots from Carmelo Anthony.

* Dinner! I’m stuck at work, I’m really hungry, and I can’t wait for the game!

Derek Fisher single-handedly killed the momentum we had to start the game. 5-0, got a stop and then a great steal by Ariza, we could have easily opened up a double digit lead while they were floundering. Bad decision driving (at this point I started shrieking) and then throwing it into the backcourt. Derek, there was no one in the backcourt. Then a nonsense PUJIT, ruining a great steal. Ah, well. Such is Life With Fish.

Very true sT. I try and try to not let it bother me, but I hate wasting possessions.

Our offense is so beautiful when run through Pau. Viva La Triangle!

This is why I’m partially afraid when Sasha makes a 3. He’ll think the Machine has returned and start chucking up awful shots. He needs to be smarter that that. Realize that the 2 big threes he made (this game and last) were set, patient shots in the corner. That’s his shot at this moment. Don’t force up ridiculous, contested, longer threes. Just play smart, damn it.

It’ll be difficult to win with JR Smith on like this.

They’re getting whatever they want in the paint. Seems like they score every time they go inside.

#78, magic,
Impressive, yes, but look at who took them. Kobe. Pau. Sasha. Lamar made his four free throws as well. The first three are money at the free throw line in important games, and when Lamar steps up he takes a big step.

But that’s okay, because we want Pau active in the paint, we want Kobe to handle the ball a lot, we want Sasha to get under people’s skin, and we want the Warrior Lamar, not the Sleepwalker Lamar.

The free throw shooting improved for lots of reasons, I think, and I’m hopeful that the jinx on that part of our game might be gone now.

The Lakers can dominate just by having LO play well. It’s almost as if we don’t need Drew when LO gets going like that. Now, against ORL, I know that we’ll need Drew and his 6 PFs. I think Drew can give the Superman all he can handle if he decides to show up.

I hope we get ORL and not CLE. If CLE comes back and beat ORL, they’ll have a lot of momentum on their side while our team will be very rusty having lost the sharpness they have gained in the last two games.

“(…) Bynum left the game at that point with his second foul, and the Lakers’ offense perked up with Lamar Odom out there … but the Lakers’ defense immediately fell off. The Nuggets finished the first quarter making 5 of 7 field-goal attempts and then started the second quarter making 4 of 6.

That 9-for-13 shooting stretch (69.2 percent) gave Denver a 31-30 lead, and Phil Jackson called timeout and brought Bynum back to replace Gasol.

I would like HCA for the Finals, obviously, but it would be so sweet to beat the LeBrons for the whole enchilada! That would be so righteous, I’m getting antsy just thinking about it. At the same time, I don’t want to see Orlando choke away their series – that would just be kind of pathetic.

I thought the lakers did a great job of controlling the pace of the game.. the slowed it down and had tremendous patience in their offensive execution.. every possession was probing and prodding.. look to make the right play at taking advantage of the nugget’s defensive strategy.. really takes me back to the 1st game of last year’s series against denver.. swing swing bang.. except instead of pau getting easy putbacks and hooks.. its open 3pters from ariza.. open shots at the rim by walton odom bynum..

those baskets gave the role players tons of confidence while keeping the crowd out of the game.. that translated into little things.. extra passes.. made freethrows (25 for 25!).. and that is the laker’s greatest strength.. smart play.. ball and player movement.. even greater than our frontline.. or even kobe..

I rather take ORL even though they’re arguably a tougher matchup for us b/c 1) CLE will have ton of momentum and we’ll have to start on the road after a long layoff; 2) the fawning over Lebron bringing them back from 1-3 will be nauseating; 3) I think ORL deserves it and it’ll be a shame for them to blow it now.

But if Lakers can keep playing last the last 2 games it won’t matter who they face.

This game was the most beautiful game of basketball I have seen the Lakers play this season. The passing was so crisp, the cuts so clean, that it almost makes me cry that the game wasn’t in Staples. Seeing the crowd roaring with each majestic pass and each momentum-building score would’ve truly been a sight to behold.

In the third quarter, when the Lakers slowly pulled away with an absolutely soul-crushing offensive flurry, the flow of the offense seemed so natural, so fluid that each basket seemed to come with such ease. Naturally, almost all of these scores came with Gasol being the focus of the offense, reading double teams then passing out, or scoring when single-covered.

I was so impressed by our team’s resilience, able to respond to each of the inevitable Denver runs in the late 3rd and 4th quarters, each time responding with a timely score, block, or rebound. This was the type of win we were all looking for since Game 1 of the Houston series; where the Lakers were able to control the boards (38-27), control the paint (4 blocks, and a lot of altered shots by Bynum and Gasol), and make the Nuggets pay for over-playing Gasol and Bryant.

The true joys of victory come only after suffering the pains of defeat.

HCA is huge, but I think we match up so much better against Cleveland. Can you imagine what it will be like to watch Lewis have so many open looks when we blow the switch time and time again? And who’s going to play Howard once AB picks up 2 quick fouls? Mbenga?!