Dmitry Chirkin: Restless Bush threatens Saddam again

It seems that the pretzels are not only bad for your digestion, they exert a negative influence on mental activity. American President George Bush could not resist the temptation to shake his fist at Saddam Hussein.

George Bush warned the Iraqi leader that if he did not allow UN inspectors to come to Iraq, then the USA would resort to military actions against the ruling regime in Baghdad, BBC informed. “We want to know if he is creating weapons of the mass destruction or not. He claims he is not; let the world know about it.” Bush said.

The American leader made that statement during a meeting with Turkish Premier Bulent Ecevit. Turkey has the second largest army after the American army in NATO, sometimes waging war with the working party of Kurdistan. There is the necessary infrastructure in Turkey for the preparation of an army operation in Iraq. The perspective of a war with Iraq is not really optimistic for Ankara; the USA and the Kurds will not allow Turkey to stay aside from it.

Washington does not have any plans regarding Iraq; there is only the wish to get rid of Hussein. The question is how to do it. Pentagon analysts have several variants regarding this issue. The first one is a military incursion (part two of the war in the gulf). The second one is a coup d’etat (the top military officials are not happy with Saddam and they overthrow him). The third one is a combination of the previous two: an incursion from Iran, a rebellion of the Kurds, and a coup d’etat. The outcome of all of this wil be a new independent state, which will be supported by American troops immediately. Hussein will not be able to wage war here and there at one and the same time; he will most likely agree with negotiations.

This is only talk on paper, but the reality is far from paper. Turkey will hardly agree for the establishment of a Kurd state.
This question will be certainly raised after the Kurds agree to support from the USA in their struggle with Iraq. It is very hard to imagine the Turks and Kurds waging war against Iraq after the longstanding genocide against the Kurds in Turkey. The Kurds themselves said that they would not support the USA’s actions against Iraq for the sake of the country’s integrity.

Speaking about the Iraqi opposition both within the country and abroad, it should be mentioned that it is very weak, which does not allow one to say it is a powerful real force. Washington is aware of that. It has recently been decided to stop funding the Iraqi opposition due to the low efficiency of its work.

The NATO allies do not share the American aggression against Iraq. They ask for the definite proofs that Iraq is really involved in the production of the weapons of mass destruction and has links with the terrorist organizations. Washington promised its allies that it would prove that, but it is hard to believe. It is very easy to make a fake of it, but it will be way too hard to make everyone believe it.

It can not be said that Saddam Hussein enjoys a big love in the Arabian world, and this world will not be in the background if the USA attacks Iraq. They all perfectly realize that some of them will the next. It is only needed to hang the terrorist label on the disagreeable, and that seems to be it.