As we have warned in the past, the last weeks have seen a massive intensification of efforts by the Great Powers and their regional allies to pacify Syria, and
to finally liquidate the Revolution and divide the country into different zones of influence. (1) In the wake of these intensified efforts, it is vital that all supporters of the Syrian
Revolution clearly understand the dangers and challenges ahead.

Let us briefly note the most important developments:

1) The US with its local allies – mostly the petty-bourgeois nationalist Kurdish YPG – is continuing to conquer northern Syria under the pretext of fighting
against Daesh. The battle for Raqqa is still going on and it will take some time before the city falls to these enemies of the revolution. It is clear that US imperialism, with the help of the
YPG (the darling of many Stalinist and pseudo-Trotskyist leftists), is already transforming this region into its military domain. (2) Several media have already published – to the outrage of the
Pentagon – maps which show the exact location of 10 US military installations – including two air bases. (See the map attached below.) (3)

2) At the same time, Russia and its allies (Iran, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime) are also advancing into eastern Syria, effectively driving Daesh out from
this region. Russia and Iran are also using this opportunity to build up military bases and, in particular, take control of the border with Iraq while the Iraqi army, following its recent
conquest of Mosul, and is also advancing towards the border region. At the same time, the Russian Air Force is continuing its terroristic bombardment against the Syrian people. According to
Interfax, it delivered over 5,800 strikes in the past two months! (4) All in all, we are witnessing a race between the two imperialist Great Powers, the US and Russia, along with their respective
allies, to defeat Daesh and to grab for themselves slices of Syria that as large as possible.

3) Naturally, the relation between the two imperialist camps and their respective allies is characterized not only by rivalry but also by a degree of
cooperation in order to defeat their common enemies. This results in scattered instances of clashes (e.g., Trump’s missile strike against an air base of the Assad regime in last April; the US’s
shooting down of drones), but primarily the element of cooperation predominates. This is because both imperialist camps want to see Daesh annihilated and the Syrian Revolution defeated. Currently
the Russian/Iranian/Assad camp is clearly the stronger factor, as the US has no relevant local military ally except the Kurdish YPG.

4) It is clear that the imperialists' battle for Raqqa is in its final phase. It may still take a few months more to conquer the whole of eastern Syria and to
smash Daesh. This depends in large part on the degree of continuing cooperation between Russia and the US. Temporary conflicts breaking out between the two could prolong Daesh’s demise. But, in
the end, the defeat of the so-called "Islamic State" is unavoidable, as Daesh has greatly undermined popular support for it with its reactionary sectarian and totalitarian policy. However, while
Daesh in its current form may not survive, it is very likely that, given the oppression by the imperialist powers and the Assad regime, other forms of Islamist Sunni resistance will continue to
exist. While Daesh obviously is a counterrevolutionary Salafist-Takfiri force, it is equally clear that the main enemies in the current conflict in the north of Syria are the imperialist forces
and their local allies.

5) The most important political development in the imperialist attempt to liquidate the Syrian Revolution is the so-called Astana negotiations. They are
dominated by Russia, Iran and Turkey and include, besides the Assad regime, several factions of the rebels (e.g., FSA, Ahrar Al-Sham). It is the explicit goal of the Astana deal, as stated
in its treaty of 4 May, to finish off the Syrian Revolution by transforming the areas still held by the rebels (mainly Idlib, Deraa, the enclaves in East Ghouta and Homs) into territories
occupied by foreign troops (mainly Russian, Iranian and Turkish). At the same time, the deal commits its signatories to continue their war against the so-called terrorists, which in particular
include the strongest, best organized and most committed force in the ongoing liberation war against the Assad regime – the petty-bourgeois Islamist Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham. (5)

6) For all practical purposes, the Trump administration is currently going along with the Russian-imposed Astana deal. The US has formally ended its so-called
aid program to the rebels, which never really reached significant levels. (6) It has instructed the Syrian forces which are part of the so-called "coalition" that they must be exclusively focused
on fighting Daseh and not to fight the Syrian regime. This directive prompted one rebel group to depart the US-led forces in Southern Syria. (7) During the recent G20, held in Germany in June,
Trump and Putin agreed in an impromptu one-on-one summit to observe an ongoing truce in southern Syria (the Deraa region). (8)

7) Russia, for its part, unilaterally declared a truce for the eastern Ghouta region on 22 July. While most rebel factions, with the exception of Hayyat
Tahrir al-Sham, agreed to this, the Assad government continued its terrorist bombings of the region from the air. (9) Clearly there are some tactical differences between Assad and Putin, as
the former hopes to entirely eradicate the enclave while the Russian leader prefers to end the civil war sooner rather than later.

8) Hezbollah has intensified its military offensive against the rebel enclave in the Arsal region on the Syrian-Lebanese border. The rebel forces – led by
Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham – are desperately fighting for their survival, but their situation is extremely difficult.

9) While the Assad regime as well as the imperialists and their allies are the most dangerous enemies of the Syrian Revolution in terms of military force,
Turkey’s Erdoğan regime is the Revolution's most dangerous political enemy. This is so because Turkey not only possesses a sizable army in the region, but also because it exercises strong
influence on the leaderships of various rebel factions. Furthermore, Turkey has much more credibility among Syrians than Russia, Iran or the US, as it has provided refuge for millions of Syrians
and in past years has offered logistical support for some rebel factions. Hence, Turkey's actual influence far transcends that which it has on the relatively small number of rebel forces who were
incorporated into the Turkish-led Operation Euphrates Shield. They also strongly influence other FSA factions, along with Ahrar Al-Sham. As a signatory to the counter-revolutionary
Astana deal, the Erdoğan regime is now striving to both increase its influence in Syria and liquidate the liberation struggle against the Assad regime.

10) As part of this process, the Erdoğan regime has upped its efforts in the rebel-controlled Idlib region to weaken the forces allied with Hayyat Tahrir
al-Sham. The latter organization has unequivocally condemned the Astana deal and has officially warned Turkey not to attempt to invade Idlib. (10) Given the strength of Hayyat Tahrir
al-Sham, Turkey and its allies are reluctant to openly invade the province and are limiting themselves to various assassination attempts against HTS leaders, while encouraging hostile
maneuvers by Ahrar Al-Sahm which has become de facto the reactionary agent of Erdoğan and the Astana conspiracy. (11) However, these attempts to militarily utilize Ahrar Al-Sahm
against the revolutionary forces backfired when Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham defeated Erdoğan’s agents in a relatively bloodless confrontation between 19 and 23 July. As a result most of Idlib is
now under the control of HTS. While these developments provoked many internal conflicts within both HTS as well as in Ahrar Al-Sahm, this recent military confrontation resulted in the
significant strengthening of the former organization and weakening of the latter. (12)

11) While the defeat of the pro-Astana forces in Idlib is certainly a welcome development, it would be naïve to ignore the terrible dangers looming before the
Syrian Revolution. First of all, there is the backward and sectarian policy of the HTS leadership itself, which repels many non-Sunnis as well as opponents of its strict religious agenda.
However, a much more imminent danger is the unholy alliance of all the imperialist and regional forces – including Turkey – which are threatening to unite in order to conquer Idlib and to
annihilate the liberation fighters. (13) This would probably mean the end of the Syrian Revolution. Given the ongoing battle against Daesh in the Raqqa region which currently occupies the
imperialist forces, it is possible that the liberation fighters still have some time to prepare for the upcoming assault. But probably not very far in the future is the time when all reactionary
opponents of the Syrian Revolution will unite to subjugate the whole of Syria to their reactionary Astana deal.

As we have stated in the past, it is now crucial to place massive pressure on the rebel leaderships not to support the Astana deal. In fact, all who are
authentically true to the Syrian Revolution must demand that all negotiators claiming to represent Syrian rebel factions immediately cease their participation in the so-called "peace
negotiations" at Astana and Geneva. Similarly, all forces that, in the interest of the Great Powers, are instigating armed provocations against rebel factions fighting against the Assad tyranny
must be denounced.

The central task now is for all loyal supporters of the Syrian Revolution to call for the creation of an anti-capitulationist united front of all forces
which unambiguously reject the Astana deal; which oppose the partition of the country by the Great Powers and their regional allies; and which support the continuation of the struggle against the
Assad tyranny.

Any confidence in the existing leaderships of the rebel factions (including that of the HTS) is misplaced. The only way forward for the Syrian Revolution is to
create popular councils and militias, under the control of the workers and poor peasants, which will fight for a workers’ and peasant republic. We repeat our call for an international workers’
and popular solidarity movement in support of the Syrian Revolution. Furthermore, we urge all authentic supporters of the liberation struggle to unite and found a revolutionary party in Syria and
a global revolutionary international based on a program of permanent revolution.

Footnotes

(1) See on this in particular RCIT: Syria: Condemn the Reactionary Astana Deal! The so-called "De-Escalation Zones" are a First Step towards the Partition of
Syria and a Conspiracy by the Great Powers to Defeat the Revolution, 7 May 2017, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/astana-deal/; Michael Pröbsting: Is the Syrian Revolution at its End? Is Third Camp Abstentionism Justified? An essay on
the organs of popular power in the liberated area of Syria, on the character of the different sectors of the Syrian rebels, and on the failure of those leftists who deserted the Syrian
Revolution, 5 April 2017, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/syrian-revolution-not-dead/

For the RCIT’s analysis of the Arab Revolution in general and the Syrian Revolution in
particular, we refer readers to our numerous articles and documents which can be accessed from the Africa and Middle East section of our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/. In particular we refer readers to the
following documents:

Michael Pröbsting: Is the Syrian Revolution at its End? Is Third Camp Abstentionism Justified?
An essay on the organs of popular power in the liberated area of Syria, on the character of the different sectors of the Syrian rebels, and on the failure of those leftists who deserted the
Syrian Revolution, 5 April 2017, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/syrian-revolution-not-dead/

RCIT: World Perspectives 2017: The Struggle against the Reactionary Offensive in the Era of
Trumpism, Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries, 18 December 2016, Chapter IV. The Middle East and the State of the Arab Revolution,
https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2017/part-4/