Florida poll has Romney with 14-point lead over Gingrich

by William Branigin - Jan. 31, 2012 12:00 AMWashington Post

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Mitt Romney opened a double-digit lead over Newt Gingrich in a new poll ahead of today's Florida Republican primary, but the Gingrich campaign insisted that the former House speaker is staying in the GOP nomination race for the long haul and remains the only conservative able to beat President Barack Obama in November.

A new Quinnipiac University poll released Monday on the final full day of campaigning in Florida shows Romney with a 14-point lead over Gingrich, 43percent to 29percent, among likely GOP primary voters. That compares with a lead of 38percent to 29percent at the end of last week, Quinnipiac said.

Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania trail far behind in Florida, each at 11percent, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2percentage points.

En route from Jacksonville to a rally in the Tampa Bay area Monday, a buoyant Romney told reporters aboard his campaign plane: "It feels good today -- good crowds, enthusiasm.... And you can sense it's coming our way. It's getting better and better every day."

Florida is the largest state to hold a primary so far this year, and 50 delegates are at stake in a winner-take-all format. At least 1,114 delegates are needed to secure the nomination at the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa in August.

The Gingrich campaign said it was unfazed by Romney's apparent surge in Florida after Gingrich won the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary in a landslide. Instead, it pointed to national polls showing Gingrich ahead of the former Massachusetts governor.

"Newt Gingrich has established himself as the only conservative capable of defeating President Obama in the 2012 general election," according to Martin Baker, the Gingrich campaign's national political director. In an e-mail sent to reporters, he maintained that nominating contests scheduled over the next few months will give Gingrich "a distinct advantage," and he asserted that even in Florida the margin could narrow before today.

"Continuing a trend we first noticed in New Hampshire and South Carolina, there is anemic grassroots enthusiasm for Mitt Romney while Newt Gingrich draws enthusiastic crowds in the thousands," Baker wrote. "All of the money in the world can't buy excitement or intensity."

He argued that "this race is just getting started" and noted that even if Romney wins Florida, he will have only a little more than 7percent of the delegates needed to secure the nomination. "There is a long way to go before either candidate clinches the nomination, and this campaign will continue for months," he said.

Asked about Gingrich's pledge to take his campaign all the way to the convention, Romney said, "That's usually an indication you're going to lose, when you say, 'I'm going to go on no matter what happens.'

"Everybody has the right to stay in as long as they think that they can get the delegates that they need," he added. "I'm not going to make any predictions, but we're going to keep battling and hoping that we get all the delegates necessary to become the nominee."

Romney said he hopes to do well in Nevada, which holds its caucuses on Feb. 4 and is one of the few states he won in 2008. But he is less sure about other states.

"I don't think you can ever count on a state being in your corner," Romney said. "I think people look at what happens in the give and take of a campaign and what the messages are that you're connecting with, and hopefully that will work in my favor. Time will tell."

After holding a primary-night party for supporters in Tampa, Romney said, he plans to campaign in Minnesota on Wednesday before arriving in Las Vegas later that day for an evening rally.

Romney aides said he will stay on the offensive in the weeks to come -- not only with Gingrich, but also with Paul and Santorum. The Romney team considers Paul to be a particularly strong opponent in Nevada and Santorum in Minnesota, senior adviser Eric Fehrnstrom said.

"It's not a two-person contest between Mitt and Newt Gingrich, no matter how much Newt may feel that way," Fehrnstrom said.