Giants' Mailbag: The short-term and long-term questions facing the team

By Kerry Crowley, Bay Area News Group

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz.–After the Giants’ first off day of the spring Tuesday, manager Bruce Bochy created a lineup loaded with most of the players expected to start on Opening Day.

While there’s still a battle for the starting center field job (we’ll discuss that soon), the only Giants’ regular sitting on Wednesday against the Padres is catcher Buster Posey.

Posey is battling a sore left ankle, but he took batting practice and participated in fielding drills during the Giants’ morning workout.

The fact so many regulars are in the lineup is a great sign for fans purchasing tickets at Scottsdale Stadium, but even better for those of us who want an extensive chance to evaluate a revamped lineup.

While next week’s mailbag should have plenty of questions about how the Giants’ stars fare this week and what that means for the immediate future, this version focuses on some of the ongoing competitions and some bigger-picture items the franchise is staring down.

If he stays healthy how much playing time do you think Austin Jackson will get between all the OF positions and CF? (From Judy Smith)

If Austin Jackson stays healthy all year, I would expect to see him finish the season with somewhere between 80 and 100 games played. Jackson is only two years removed from playing in a combined 136 games for the Mariners and Cubs, but last year, the Cleveland Indians helped maximize his production by having him play in 84 games.

Though Steven Duggar is impressing every Giants’ decision-maker with his play this spring, I would peg his current chances of earning an Opening Day roster spot at 50-50. Even if Duggar does make the club, I think Bruce Bochy will ease him into the starting center fielder role and have Jackson play against left-handed pitchers. A realistic goal for the Giants is to have Duggar ready to play everyday by July 1, but even then, Jackson will see time in left field backing up Hunter Pence and as a designated hitter when the team travels to American League parks.

Jackson can offer the club plenty of value, especially if he hits left-handed pitchers as well as he did a season ago. (.352 average, .440 on-base percentage, 1.013 OPS)

Question: Do you see Gregor Blanco making the team with Austin Jackson until OF Steven Duggar is ready. If they send Duggar to Triple-A Sacramento? (From @Dobson_Harrison)

If Duggar does play his way onto the Opening Day roster, I think there’s still a possibility Gregor Blanco could serve as the team’s fifth outfielder and as a valuable late-innings defensive replacement. It would likely prevent Jarrett Parker from hanging onto a job, but the Giants are determined to improve their defense and Blanco has the positional flexibility to help at all three outfield positions.

Should Duggar begin the year with Triple-A Sacramento, Blanco would have the chance to split time in center field on a consistent basis with Jackson. The Giants need a glove like Blanco’s, and so far this spring, he’s outperformed Gorkys Hernandez who is another candidate to earn a job as a backup outfielder.

Question: The current projections have the Giants just barely under the tax line. Does that assume they don’t add anyone new to the 40 man roster? Are there financial considerations for call ups? (From Jason Kwok)

I could probably write 5,000 words about the competitive balance tax and still not offer a thorough perspective of where the Giants stand and how each move impacts subsequent transactions, but I’ll do my best to answer this one.

Let’s assume the Giants have a player, like Pablo Sandoval, on the 40-man roster who can make the 25-man roster and earn the minimum salary. If they elected to release Sandoval, they would need to replace him on the 40-man roster, and they would likely do so with another player (probably a prospect) who would make the minimum salary at the Major League level. That would effectively serve as a cash-neutral transaction.

There are luxury tax and financial considerations to be made with every transaction, so the Giants will be monitoring every dollar under the $197 million CBT threshold closely. If a player like Hunter Pence goes on the disabled list, they’re still on the hook for his $18 million salary. If it’s a minor injury for Pence, they’ll probably call up an Austin Slater-type player who is earning a small base salary, instead of signing an available free agent who would earn more money than a pre-arbitration player.

The Giants have built in a small amount of wiggle room for injuries, but if enough players go down and they need to make a high volume call-ups, their odds of earning a playoff spot will significantly decrease. In that scenario, I would expect them to sell a reliever or two at the trade deadline to ensure the payroll rests comfortably below $197 million.

On the other hand, if the Giants are .500 in July and the second wildcard spot is within reach, I don’t think they’ll hesitate to swing a deal for a player who may push the club past the CBT, but may also push the club into the hunt.

Question: I’m a bit concerned about Pence. It’s still early, but last I checked he had a .111 average. There are other guys taking their turns in LF so he’s not getting a ton of work, but still… I can’t remember if he usually takes this long to get going. Anyone in the org concerned? (From Steve Ray)

Concerns about Pence are valid, but I wouldn’t be concerned with his spring performance to date. He’s played on an inconsistent basis and he battled a rough case of the flu, so it’s understandable that he’s not off to a hot start.

If Pence reaches the end of the spring and still hasn’t shown signs of an improvement at the plate, then I think there will be a contingent of front office folks discussing how the team can best manage the situation in left field.

Right now, though, Pence is in incredible shape and he’s highly motivated to return to form at the plate. He’s a player who feeds off of positivity in part because he provides so much of it, and now that he’s healthy again, let’s see what he looks like for the next two weeks.

Question: How close did Giants get to signing Timmy? (From @Flashee)

I wouldn’t say it was close.

If Tim Licecum was interested in signing a Minor League contract and pitching his way into a crowded bullpen, then I imagine the Giants would have pushed much harder to make a reunion a reality. But Lincecum’s ultimate goal was to sign a guaranteed Major League deal, and only a handful of teams were reportedly interested in handing Lincecum an offer.

The fact Lincecum was able to sign a Major League deal after taking a full season off from pitching is a testament to the hard work he put in to stay in shape, but the Giants weren’t in position to take a chance on a player whose ability to contribute is still very much in question.

Question: Have the Giants set themselves up well enough to make a major move next offseason? It’s never too early to think ahead. (From Brandon Voelker)

By staying under the luxury tax threshold, the Giants are giving themselves every opportunity to make a splash next offseason.

The odds of Bryce Harper actually signing with San Francisco aren’t great, but with Pence’s contract and Andrew McCutchen’s contract coming off the books, the Giants actually can offer Harper a mega-deal and potentially front-load some of the cash (as long as they’re committed to surpassing the CBT threshold).

With the way the game is trending, though, the Giants will be wary of offering massive contracts to players who might ask for long-term deals at 30 or 31 years old. There are other names they’ll check in on in free agency, especially in the outfield, but keep in mind the team’s farm system will be restocked in this summer’s draft so they could pursue trade opportunities, too.