TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOKFOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EASTIssued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWINat 4:55 am CST Thursday 3 January 2008

An active monsoon trough lies across the Top End with a low about 260 kilometressouthwest of Darwin. The low is expected to remain slow moving for a day or sobefore moving eastward into the Gulf of Carpentaria during Friday or Saturday.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next three daysis estimated to be: Thursday: Low Friday: Moderate Saturday: High

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropicalcyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,High = 50% or more.

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities fromMitchell Plateau in Western Australia to Daly River Mouth in the NorthernTerritory.

A Cyclone WATCH has also been declared for coastal and island communities fromDaly River Mouth to Goulburn Island, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

At 9:30 am CST [9:00 am WDT] a Tropical Low was estimated to be160 kilometres north northeast of Wyndham and 310 kilometres southwest of Darwinand moving west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

There is the possibility that the low will develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONE inthe Joseph Bonaparte Gulf tonight, and GALES could affect coastal and islandcommunities between Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia and Daly River Mouthin the Northern Territory early tomorrow.

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from MitchellPlateau in Western Australia to Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territory.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Daly RiverMouth to Goulburn Island, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

At 12:30 pm CST [12:00 pm WDT] a Tropical Low was estimated to be155 kilometres north of Wyndham and 345 kilometres west southwest of Darwin andmoving west at 11 kilometres per hour.

There is the possibility that the low will develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONEtonight, and GALES could affect coastal and island communities between MitchellPlateau in Western Australia and Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territoryovernight or early tomorrow morning.

Heavy rain is expected to cause flooding in the north Kimberley region fromtomorrow.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:T=2.0 AND CI=2.5-THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ARATHER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.ELNUS SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A DECREASING WINDSHEAR TO SLIGHTLY REINTENSIFY.BEYOND, LOCATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES, THE FIRST SHIFTINGEASTWARDS AND THE OTHER REBUILDING IN THE WEST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACKSOUTHEASTWARDS.

If the system were to take a more northeast track, there is the possibility thatGALES could affect coastal and island communities between Daly River Mouth andGoulburn Island, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands late on Friday or onSaturday.

Heavy rain is expected to cause flooding in the north Kimberley region tonightand tomorrow.