Doc: Most important Red you've never heard of

Sam Grossman tells team what numbers mean

Mar. 6, 2013

The Reds have drafted phenomenally well. They are the only team in the bigs in the last seven years to have every No. 1 draft pick make it to the majors. It has something to do with Sam Grossman, and his database. / Provided by the Reds

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GOODYEAR, AZ – The most important Cincinnati Red you’ve never heard of majored in Math and graduated from Northwestern. He started his professional life as an actuary. He doesn’t wear a uniform to work, unless a striped pullover atop a white T-shirt is a uniform. Willie Mays sounds like a ballplayer’s name. Sam Grossman sounds like a bookkeeper.

And in fact, Sam Grossman, the Reds Director of Baseball Research, does like numbers.

Mountains of numbers. Planets, solar systems, universes of data. Enough digits to make your head hurt, all with the click of a mouse. His business is about turning an intuition into a certifiable data-fact. He crunches the hunches.

Every major league team works the statistics now, and has for a decade, at least. The era of scoffing at the stats nerds is as done as anabolic steroids. The trick isn’t gathering the data. It’s interpreting it. Reds owner Bob Castellini isn’t interested in numbers, unless they’re on a check he’s signing. Tell him what the numbers mean.

You might think what Sam Grossman does for the Reds is dreadfully dull. All these statistics, some so obscure even Grossman isn’t sure what they mean, if anything. Grossman can tell you what pitch Johnny Cueto threw the last time he pitched on an empty stomach under a full moon south of the Mason-Dixon line. He can tell you that about every ballplayer in the majors, give or take. It’s his job. “Drilling down,’’ he calls it.

Baseball is in an age of endless information. “An explosion of data,’’ says Dick Williams, the team’s VP of Baseball Operations. The teams that do best are the teams that best pick and choose what data works for them. The Reds are very good at that.

A few numbers we can understand:

The Reds are third in Baseball in the number of homegrown players on their 40-man roster. That contributes to efficiency in what is often an inefficient marketplace. Ask the Dodgers and Cubs about inefficiency.

The six teams that have won two division titles in the last three years had an average payroll of $143 million. The Reds average was $81 million. They were the third most efficient team in baseball during those years, in terms of dollars spent per win.

The Reds have drafted phenomenally well. They are the only team in the bigs in the last seven years to have every No. 1 draft pick make it to the majors. This isn’t luck or coincidence or because they have scouts named Nostradamus. It has something to do with Sam Grossman, and his database.

“I don’t think we have a system that’s above and beyond the rest,’’ Grossman says. “It just works very well for what we do.’’

What the Reds do very well, judging from the recent results, is find players who fit their small ballpark and their medium budget. They do it by combining Grossman’s data and Walt Jocketty’s scouting staff, most notably scouting director Chris Buckley. Instead of scouts and nerds battling it out over players, the numbers encourage discussion.

“It’s a balanced approach. Walt starts with the scouting reports, then he’ll bring in the statistical analysis to support the reports, or refute them. We find the common ground,’’ Grossman says. The common ground has been mother-loaded lately.

It’s not just draft picks. The club needed a pitcher quickly last spring, after the injuries to Ryan Madson, Nick Masset and Bill Bray. They signed Alfredo Simon for next to nothing. The Orioles didn’t want him. Grossman’s numbers said they were mistaken.

Simon had a lot of strikeouts. The batting average against him was low. He delivered a high percentage of ground ball outs, an advantage in Great American Small Park. He had started and relieved, so he was versatile. Jeff Taylor, the Reds scout for the AL East, knew the Orioles were down on him.

Nick Krall, the team’s director of baseball operations, prepared a dossier on Simon. The Reds signed him for $487,000. Simon went 3-2 with a 2.60 ERA in 61 innings. A bargain.

Bob Miller, the assistant general manager and Grossman’s boss, stands at a large dry-erase board, pointing his pen-tip at each player on the 40-man roster:

“Our system, our system,’’ he began, going down the list. “International. Trade, thanks to great pro scouting,’’ he said, referring to the Wily Mo Pena-Bronson Arroyo steal. “International, international, our system, trade, our system, trade, our system.’’ And so on. The only pure free agent on the team now is Ryan Ludwick.

All of this gold mining is important only if you want your small- or middle-money team to be relevant year after year. As Miller said, “We can’t compete signing major-league free agents.’’

“When all you look at is the big picture, you’re missing something,’’ said Grossman. The Reds haven’t missed much lately.