Spring Runoff Will Likely Doom Oroville Dam

Residents were allowed to return to their homes, but serious danger remains. Working crews at the endangered dam are working around the clock to stabilize and reinforce the emergency spillway in anticipation of the melting snow pack runoff, which will again boost Oroville lake levels.

Multiple trucks are dropping giant boulders up to the amount of 1,200 tons of rock per hour . However, this mitigation is very small in comparison to the immense scale of erosion that has already taken place. There’s a real risk that the lake could again overtop its banks.

What I have learned is that the dam does not have to break for there to be a crisis downstream. That is right, the dam may never collapse, but there could still be a major crisis. However, if the hill collapses, next to the dam’s spillway, or the hill erodes, then there will be the same loss of water as if the dam broke. I have also learned that worst-case scenario is that the emergency spillway is lost and it just gets worse and worse. There would be a subsequent chain reaction and there will be a tremendous release of water. Further, the dam will be highly stressed and in danger of collapsing.

I interviewed Paul Preston, who has been to the dam several times, and we explored the question of rising temperatures and the spring run-off.

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Having a good understanding of a soluble limestone there is no more erosive force than water. Water weighs 8.34 lbs. per gallon. One gallon does not have much of a force. 1,000 gallons of water has a weight of 8,340 pounds. 1 cubic feet per second equals 448 gallon per minute therefore there is 3,726 lbs. per second, a very erosive force coming across the spillway. How many CFS are flowing across the spillway in the current situation, just multiply it times the actual numbers on a per gallon basis? The sheer weight of this force is hard to imagine. Add mud to the water, with snow melt and the weight per gallon goes up therefore in snowmelt if water clarity changes the pound per gallon will also go up to possibly to 9 lbs. per gallon or higher. In a situation when you have a soluble limestone the erosive force of the water coming across the spillway will continue to erode the limestone out. All you have to do is visit the Grand Canyon to observe the aggressive force of water over a longer period of time. The force of the water coming across the spillway is astronomical in a force to be reckoned with which I do not think is fully understood in the magnitude of the damage it can create. In my opinion if the water across the spillway continues, it will only erode back towards the dam.