Officials re-evaluate what Measure K sales tax will bring in

STOCKTON - The housing meltdown has regional transportation officials considering scaling back on what projects can be completed with the half-cent sales tax approved by voters in 1990.

Zachary K. Johnson

STOCKTON - The housing meltdown has regional transportation officials considering scaling back on what projects can be completed with the half-cent sales tax approved by voters in 1990.

Originally thought to generate $735 million over its 20-year life span, Measure K's half-cent sales tax could instead bring between $650 million and $670 million, said officials at the San Joaquin Council of Governments.

Projects under construction will be completed, and significant transportation projects throughout the county will continue unabated, but officials will have to consider what to do with some plans yet to be started.

Original projections showed revenue from sales tax rising steadily from year to year throughout the 20-year span of Measure K, but it has peaked.

"Now we're looking at falling off a cliff here," said Steve Dial, deputy executive director of the Council of Governments.

Elected officials from cities and the county who serve on the governing board are scheduled to discuss Measure K's new financial outlook at a meeting today.

Staffers have yet to compile a complete list of potentially affected projects, but it is expected to include projects where construction has yet to begin, Executive Director Andrew Chesley said.

A plan to build a transit center in Manteca and the widening of Lower Sacramento Road north of Eight Mile Road are two projects that fit this description, he said.

The shortfall won't affect larger, long-anticipated projects, even if they haven't begun construction, like improvements to Highway 12 and the widening of Highway 99 between Stockton's Crosstown Freeway and Highway 120 in Manteca, he said.

The original Measure K was approved by voters and set to expire in 2011. Over its life span, the project list has not been static, and transportation officials have been able to add projects.

In 2006, voters approved a renewal of Measure K, extending the sales tax another 30 years. At the time, it was expected to amass an additional $2.5 billion.

Projects funded by both of the measure's incarnations combine funds from the sales tax with contributions from partner agencies, including city governments, transit agencies and the California Department of Transportation. A percentage of Measure K revenue also pays for maintenance.

The agency needs to close the book on the accounting of the original Measure K, Chesley said. Projects can be dropped from the Measure K roll or carried over into the renewal, but that would cause an impact, too, he said. "You don't want to go that road."

Public agencies across the state are dealing with the fallout from declining sales-tax revenue.

For the fiscal year beginning in July, cash statewide from sales tax is already $515 million below what was forecast, according to the California Department of Finance.

And though the sale of homes doesn't generate sales tax revenue, the housing crisis has an indirect impact on sales tax receipts, said Anita Gore, spokeswoman for the state Board of Equalization.

No new homes means people aren't buying as much furniture, window coverings or building materials, she said. And homeowners losing home equity are less likely to purchase big-ticket items, she said.

With its rash of foreclosures and slumping housing market and building industry, San Joaquin County has been hit hard.

Dial sees the housing crisis as the culprit in the decline of Measure K revenue.