In a 47-page report to clients, Goldman laid out various scenarios for the car maker’s future before ultimately raising its six-month Tesla price target to $200 from $170, some 20% below Tuesday’s closing level of $240.04.

Goldman analyst Patrick Archambault also outlined several optimistic scenarios where shares could feasibly trade well above current levels.

“If Tesla’s auto business were to be truly disruptive (to the whole auto industry, not just luxury vehicles), then there would be considerable upside,” Mr. Archambault wrote. “To measure what is truly transformational, we need [to] draw on the experience of past technologies like the iPhone, the Ford Model-T, and selected consumer durables like refrigerators/laundry appliances/dishwashers. All of these were new technologies that were widely adopted and radically revolutionized consumption patterns.”

The chart below outlines various forecasts that Tesla could achieve should Mr. Musk follow those visionary paths. Most notably, if Mr. Musk is Henry Ford and Tesla cars become as disruptive as the Model T, Mr. Archambault says the future value of the shares could be $1,835.

“If Tesla’s auto business were to be truly disruptive (to the whole auto industry, not just luxury vehicles), then there would be considerable upside,” Mr. Archambault said. “However, this is offset by our base case (broadly unchanged from our previous forecast) and a downside case where Tesla’s present value is lower and hence we arrive at probability weighted share price of $180 for the auto business alone.”

Add $20 for its battery business and that’s how Goldman comes up with a $200 price target.