Will NASA’s decision push the Europeans into Russian or Chinese arms?

As most readers probably know by now, in the President’s just released-budget NASA has axed its EXO Mars partnership with the European Space Agency to pay for the over-budget James Webb Space Telescope. It was a difficult decision, but in a tight fiscal environment perhaps it was unavoidable if we were to save the Webb telescope.

Nevertheless the decision has both scientific and diplomatic implications.

The key question in my mind is what this decision will do to NASA’s relationship with ESA, which long has been a steadfast partner for the U.S. space agency, most recently with the International Space Station.

Artist's concept of the ExoMars/Trace Gas Orbiter mission. (NASA/JPL)

My concern is that ESA will see NASA as an uncertain partner, and look to foster deeper relationships with Russia and China. Already ESA has asked Russia to join the EXO Mars exploration plan, and it has partnered with China on the Double Star Mission.

With these questions in mind I interviewed Ian Pryke, who served as head of ESA’s Washington office for two decades between 1983 and 2003, and is now a George Mason University professor of space studies. Herein, then, are his thoughts on the news.

How will this decision by NASA to abandon the EXO Mars partnership affect its relationship with ESA?

“It’s hard to say because ESA and NASA do have a very strong relationship. Anything like this, however, it really must color the waters when it comes to future discussions.”

Do you think it will have a long-term effect?

“It doesn’t do anything to create an environment more amenable to cooperation in the short term. But one would hope that the cooperation has been so strong this is something that the two parties can eventually work through.”

Do you see this decision pushing the Europeans into closer relationships with Russia or China?

I don’t know about pushing, but I think ESA is open to looking at partnership opportunities where the partnership opportunity makes sense. The United States doesn’t represent one-stop-shopping when it comes to partnerships in space.

When I spoke with him Pryke also noted that this isn’t the first time NASA has backed out on commitments to ESA, citing the Ulysses mission to study the sun. Several decades ago NASA backed out on providing one of the spacecrafts needed for the mission, but a revamped experiment eventually flew and the relationship was patched up.

Of course, back then, there weren’t other opportunities for partnering with other space agencies besides NASA.