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Friday, October 2, 2009

I’ve always had a great deal of respect for this man. He’s wise and clearly has a good heart, but he also GETS it.Of course intelligence inst as cool as “Change” and “Hope” along with kissing babies while waving little American flags, so no, this man wasn’t elected president, unfortunately.FerFAL

GLENN: What does America look like after a crashed dollar?RON PAUL: Not like it looks today. We think it was bad with the financial crisis. When you have a dollar crisis, the whole thing quits functioning. The checks bounce and literally the federal government's checks bounce if you have -- if inflation goes up --GLENN: Wait, wait, wait, wait. Does that mean that all of your friends in Washington then just go away?RON PAUL: Yeah, that might be a good part of it.GLENN: That might be a good idea! I say we crash the dollar today if that's the effect!RON PAUL: I think we're going to have a de facto Tenth Amendment, secession. People are just going to ignore the federal government because they won't -- and there's, you know, a total loss of credibility. You know, this idea that Obama says that we're going to have all this new medical care, we're going to take care of everybody and it's not going to cost us anything and we're going to balance the budget and actually cut the deficit by giving people more services, all that does is build, you know, the lack of credibility and people just say that's not believable. But no, it will continue that way. And the checks will keep coming. People will get their Social Security checks. But like this year, even though there's been a lot of inflation that they don't admit to, there's no cost of living increases in the Social Security check. So the people who are dependent on fixed incomes or Social Security, their standard of living is going down right now and it will continue to go down. It will go down rapidly in the midst of a dollar crisis.GLENN: John -- I mean, Congressman Paul, the media and even Patrick Kennedy said this, we heard this from two people, Muammar Gaddafi and I believe the other one was Ahmadinejad that both spoke last week and they -- we're hearing it all the time that there's going to be violence here in America, that people are targeting. Basically everyone is going to blame this on the right, any kind of violence. They are setting up any violence on those who are from the right or, you know, from the tea party movement. Are you concerned about this and what is happening in Washington where Nancy Pelosi comes out and says -- you know, she starts to cry and, you know, says that she's seen it before and we're going to see it again?RON PAUL: I think that there will be violence. I hope we don't have to go through, you know, a very violent period of time, but that's what happens too often when the government runs out of money and runs out of wealth, the people argue over, you know, a shrinking pie and, of course, the people who have to produce are sick and tired of producing.GLENN: But I think what they're saying is there would be -- violence would come first.RON PAUL: I think it will come after a dollar crisis. I think you are always going to have some violence but, you know, I lived through the Sixties and I was in the military during that time, and I know the Sixties were very rough and there was a lot of violence there. I don't think next month we're going to have anything like the violence we had in the Sixties, but potentially if we do have a dollar crisis and the whole system comes unglued, then I think there's going to be a lot more violence, especially in the inner cities.GLENN: I know I've asked you this before, and I'm really bad at time as well, and it's an unfair question because, you know, if you hit a date and then it doesn't happen, you know, then everybody's like, he was saying -- but do you have any concept sooner rather than later on dollar crash?RON PAUL: No, and I do try to avoid picking dates. Economists don't like to pick dates. They pick trends and they know what the consequences will be but so often the debate is emotional or some event, like you mentioned the event of bombing Iran. I don't know when they will do it. I suspect they will. But if I knew next week they were going to do it, I would say that would be the big event, but --GLENN: Well, I've talked to several people, you know, that I would say would be in the know and they said the outside date would be March. Sometime before now and March. March it's a done deal. Everything's hardened and everything's done, and the Earth is risen by then. So it's sometime between now and March that people think that --RON PAUL: I wouldn't be that precise but I would say there's no foundation and that within the next several years something would happen which means it could happen in a month or it could happen in three or four years. But it's going to happen. You just can't do what we're doing. If that were the case, Americans would never have to work again. All we would do -- like we have been doing, we've been working less, our good jobs going overseas, we print money action we're able to buy from overseas. But if we could do that forever, none of us would have to have jobs. It would just depend on borrowing from foreigners and printing money. But eventually the worldWILSON: Give up on it. Right now it's in the interest of so many people to keep this dollar going that we haven't had to suffer the consequences yet.

I will take it on faith that just about everything he says regarding the Fed and economics is true. I don't doubt it. But this is no President. Not that what we got IS, but you will not get Americans to vote for you if you believe there should be no death penalty or no war is ever worth fighting. That is not American. When your friend is attacked, you come to his aid, no matter what the economists say.

I´d say March is a reasonable estimat, technically speaking the dollar is finishing a correction of a larger counter-trend movement. It took from July 2008 to March 2009 for the first impulse of the counter-trend to play out, then between March and September 2009 for the correction to grind itself out. 8 months and then 6. So if this next dollar rally lasts about that long we´ll have March as a target should the trend be 6 months, with May being the upper bound.

I think anyone who tries to protect themself now from this crash by buying foreign currency or gold, or god-forbid equities, is going to have to endure a lot of value lost. The ideal window to get clear of the dollar will be short and only technically minded speculators are going to be able to seize it. For most people I´d say watch not the gold price but the gold basis, the gap between how much it costs to buy gold in cash right now versus how much it costs to buy a promise to deliver gold in the future. When its more expensive to buy gold now, and it stays that way, then the game is up and you should buy the gold now. Hell, if you bought gold today as insurance and it went to $500 but your dollars appreciated, that might be ok, so long as you used those dollars to buy more gold before the plug is pulled and gold goes to $x000

Is being broke American? That's what entangling alliances, as the founding fathers warned, will bring to a nation. Dr. Paul has said many times that if WE are attacked, we have a duty to defend ourselves. However, economics aside, the federal government should not be sending American men and women to fight and die for other countries, period.

"Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations – entangling alliances with none."

I'm a big supporter of Dr. Paul and a member of the Libertarian party. Not too sure if that's the right way to go (the Libertarian Party only represents 4% of the voting public), but the Republican Party doesn't seem to stand for anything anymore with the exception of what 'Evangelicals' want them to stand for. I can see this nation going down the tubes very soon.

Great post! However, most people in the US could tell you more about Britney Spears and would have no idea who Dr. Paul is. I now spend a majority of my time 'prepping' then hoping that this country will ever change its coarse.

I would like to add something to Patrick's post. Technical analysis used to predict change in prices is very useful during stable or normal times. Fundmentals should also be considered as well as techical analysis or the 'charts' are often surprised by fundemental changes in the market. To say that gold will drop as there will be a huge rally in the dollar is specualtion. There are too many "known unknowns". I believe it is best ot focus on the long term trends, the macro economics.

Buy gold and silver as insurance , a hedge againist the value of the dollar. If gold is down the dollar is up and one's purchasing power remains the same. If gold is up and the dollar is down, your purchasing power remains the same. Buy gold and silver only to perserve your purchasing power. The average person is not a trader and should not attempt to time the market.

@Idahoser - Dr. Paul does not say that we should never go to war, just that we should be constrained to *just* war ie: defensive war.

If indeed the Taliban supported OBL in the 9-11 attacks, then declaring war on Afghanistan might well be justified (though we didn't do that, so that's a problem)...although since OBM is a non-state actor a Letter of Marque and Reprisal would have been a better response (wikipedia the LoM&R for historical applications - we used it against the Barbary Pirates)...then we could have unleashed the Blackwater crazies on OBM instead of the whole US military, which, by planting thousands of our military people in hot zones gives the terrorists many more accessible targets than they would otherwise have.

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Leatherman Charge Ti

Fenix Lights

I love this light. Runs on a single AAA and is capable of big boy lumen output (80 lumens) in a keychain package. Also has low and mid mode for longer runtime.
Fenix PD20
Single CR123 cell. 6 modes including 180 lumen turbo mode.
General Mode: 9 lumens (35hrs) -> 47 lumens (6.5hrs) -> 94 lumens (2.6hrs) -> SOS
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15 days of survival use (2 continuous hours per day on the lowest setting)

Thanks for the Positive Reviews!

Energency gadget... on steroids.

Asus Eee 1005HA

Basic Door/Window Alarm

Emergency gadget

Both tool and weapon, just the right size

Straight edge makes it easier to sharpen, + tougher tip

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By all accounts and reviews I’ve read so far, it truly is “The toughest Tape on the Planet”

Transportation

I talked about these some time ago in an article, remember someone asked where to get one.
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Just found one reasonably priced and with excellent reviews in Amazon.

Best Folder

Emergency blankets. I Have several of these around.

Katadyn water filter

for the kits

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Got to have water: Klean Kanteen Stainless Steel

Moleskine, the ultimate little black cover notebook :)

Fenix L0D-CE. Perfect keychain light. 80 Lumens in a single AAA

Nice combo. The Soldier is an excellent product.

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My wife keeps one in her purse too.
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You guys have the coolest stuff up there.:)

Jack Bauer’s bag.:) I’d like to get one of these and try it out.

Fox OC Spray

Don’t have this one but it’s the hottest OC spray out there.
Someone once called it “bottled lava”
Pick your poison people, but do carry OC
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Firesteel

Classic, and one of the few things I’d call a “must have” I own two of these.