2018 CFP Playoff Scenarios Into Championship Week

For the second year in a row, we are here to analyze the probabilities for each team to make the College Football Playoff. With one week to go, the Pac-12 is out of the CFP Playoff, so there are really only sixteen scenarios that we need to examine. These scenarios revolve around the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and ACC Championships. The lines on the games (as of this writing) don’t differ our projections by more than 4% on any game, so we will simply use the DRatings odds to win.

2018 College Football Playoff Scenarios

Scenario #1: Clemson, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Alabama win

The top three here are clear. The only way that we see Ohio State jumping Oklahoma is in a really close Big 12 Championship and a very convincing Ohio State win. Even then, we think this would lean Oklahoma.

Scenario #2: Clemson, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Georgia win

If Alabama loses and all the other favorites win, then things could end up getting really crazy. We don’t believe there is any scenario where Alabama won’t get in, so here, we know the four teams but not the order.

Scenario #3: Clemson, Ohio St, Texas, Alabama win

Chance of Happening: 8.2%

CFP Rankings:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Ohio State

This is clearly Ohio State’s easiest path to the CFP Playoff. An Oklahoma loss and the favorites winning in all the other Championships will lock them into the #4 spot.

Scenario #6: Clemson, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Georgia win

I guess we can leave open the very slight possibility that Alabama drops out of the playoff here. Very highly unlikely, but there might be a chance if they get crushed by Georgia and Oklahoma plays great against Texas.

Scenario #7: Clemson, Northwestern, Texas, Alabama win

This is the coolest scenario of the bunch. An Ohio State plus Oklahoma loss would wreck havoc on the #4 spot and would surely cause the committee a sleepless night. Who would be most deserving? A two-loss Georgia team coming off a loss to the best team in the country? A two-loss Michigan team that didn’t play in a conference championship? Or undefeated UCF (assuming they win the American)?