According to China Customs January data, the
country’s total coal import in December slumped 50% from 13.52 million mt in November and 57% on year from 15.8 million mt, showing the impact of the tightened grip.

As 2019 began, customs clearance processes became
smoother, but just before the lunar New Year holidays, several sources reported
longer-than-usual delays for imported coking and thermal coal of Australian
origin.

While Indonesian thermal coal prices have rebounded
from the beginning of this year, Australian thermal coal prices have been
suppressed as a result of cautious buying.

Though Indonesian coal has not been affected, worries about import curbs are still on the minds of market players, as China tries to keep the annual import volume at the level of 2017.

In
2018, China imported a total of 281.23 million mt of all coal types, up 3.9% on
year, China Customs figures showed. China imported 271 million mt of coal in
2017.

Major destinations for Indonesian coal in 2018

Diversification

Several sources said China is unlikely to totally close its door on coal imports as it needs the seaborne cargoes to supplement the domestic market. Nevertheless the Asian giant has embarked on a path to reduce the reliance on coal by boosting natural gas imports.

In addition, China has also implemented
coal-to-gas projects and is developing renewable energy, while at the same time
increasing domestic coal output.

This might not bode well for Indonesian exporters in the longer term. To deal with the risk of being too reliant on China given the uncertainty of imports, some market sources have taken proactive steps to diversify their portfolio.

For some producers, diversification is already
happening, even though it means selling to some other markets at prices below
the prevailing market rate.

“This is part of the market strategy of some
Indonesian producers, to sell at a lower price level as they want to expand
into the markets and build relations with the buyers,” said a Singapore-based
trader.

“Ideally, it’s good to diversify, as Southeast Asian
countries, for example Vietnam, are on a growth phase,” said an Indonesian producer.

The International
Energy Agency forecasts that coal demand in Southeast Asia would grow by 5.7%
through 2023, as countries including the Philippines and Vietnam are building
new coal-fired power plants as their economies develop.

A Singapore-based market source told Platts that it is possible to
spread the demand geographically as the total export volume to other regions
could add up significantly.

“But much has to be done in terms of
market development,” he said. “This would include setting appropriate
credit terms, loan structures as well as allowing power plants in these
countries to gain equity in the mines supplying the station,” he noted.

Cutting
production

Diversification would not be a
straightforward process as coal requirements at power plants in India, Vietnam
or Southeast Asian countries might be different, one Singapore-based analyst noted.

“Many of the plants might not be able to
use the lower CV coal. While the mid to high CV thermal coal producers are able
to diversify their markets, the lower CV ones would likely stick to the Chinese
market,” he said.

China
is the main market for Indonesian lignite exports. Of the total 85 million mt exported in 2018, 80 million mt were exported to China, S&P Global analytics data showed.

Of
the total 263.5 million mt Indonesian
sub-bituminous coal exported, China imported 35
million mt.

For Indonesian thermal coal producers with over 90% of cargoes in their portfolio heading to China , it will still be business as usual for now.

“We’ll
export as usual, as there’s demand from China,” said a producer of low CV coal.

Meanwhile,
the Indonesian government recently set a 2019 coal production target of 480 million mt, compared with a target of 485 million
mt in 2018. The government also requires coal miners to allocate about 26% of the production for the domestic market.

Rather than diversify to minimise risk
exposure, the Singapore-based analyst suggested that producers should cut output,
saving the supply for future use as domestic demand in Indonesia and other
Asian countries is expected to rise.
“It is necessary to
have a longer-term mindset and cut production significantly to meet future
demand instead of increasing output and seeing prices plunge
if China shuts its door again,” the analyst added.