March 19, 2018

Hopefully we can get the banner to switch out soon as the seasons are about to flip on the calendar. But for now, SnowTALK! will remain.

Having said that, it will be the risk for some gusty t-storms this afternoon/evening across southern KY that the video will start with today. Tornado outbreak looking likely for Nashville to Atlanta. Let's hope people are fully aware and stay safe!

The low pressure with this severe threat will transfer to the east coast. Meanwhile, the upper low will split off over the Ohio Valley Tuesday PM into Wednesday. This will be a colder core system that will help promote any rain to snow with the precipitation rate. Another wet, slushy snow event. Since the timing for majority of it to fall will be nocturnal, there will be a risk at some accumulation. Once the sun gets above the horizon Wednesday, it will fade into memory.

March 15, 2018

Very much a whiplash forecast ahead of us. Or as we call it here in WAVE Country, "spring".

A cold front will come through today...but other than a change in wind direction, you won't notice.

The problem is that front will lay the groundwork for cold air in place early tomorrow as moisture tries to return. I am suspect how much can actually return however. Leaning toward a mainly dry setup during the daylight hours tomorrow. It would only take a small amount of drizzle in the morning to lead to issues when temps are at/below freezing, but the risk for such just looks too small right now.

The rain should increase Friday night into Saturday AM with even some lightning/thunder possible.

The temperature profile Saturday is interesting. 40s north, 70s south. Louisville right in the middle. Certainly some bust potential on highs when you have a tight contrast like that. So some will either get surprised or disappointed :)

Sunday still looks mainly dry but the rain will arrive later that night.

Rain likely Monday into Tuesday.

Then the low will transfer to a coastal low. This will allow for a changeover from rain to snow Tuesday into Wednesday. It looks like another wet snow event but too early to talk amounts. I will say if it a daytime snow--don't expect much. This time of you year...you need the darkness of night to aid in snowfall. And even that becomes a struggle.

Much warmer toward the following weekend with a decent risk of strong t-storms coming into play.

March 14, 2018

Overall, nothing significant is showing up on the wintry side. But they rarely do this far out in March. So we will take each system one at a time. The good news is that we will continue to work in more and more of these warm spikes as the month continues. You guys know I love snow, but it is time to MOVE ON!

Here is how the next few weather systems look:

Friday:Wave of rain passes through KY and parts of southern IN. How much of an east wind flow at the surface will determine how cold we can get when it arrives. There risk here looks to be either freezing rain or just plain rain. The warm layer looks too warm for snow right now. And to add, anything frozen looks brief. Monitoring it...

Saturday:There will be another wave that will pass through. GFS and NAM are north and drier with this. I think that is the more likely route so we plan to keep cloudy skies in for now and low rain chances. Hopefully we can improve that forecast even more when we get closer, but it still looks cool for right now.

Sunday:Most, if not all, of the models agree on a warming day here with some sunshine.

Monday:Low pressure begins to send in a wave of rain and maybe thunder.

Tuesday:Potential for another phasing of a wave behind the Monday one to allow for some backlash snow, but as of now...that risk looks low.

A break comes Wednesday and maybe Thursday.

Next system arrives with rain/thunder on Friday into that weekend.

Here is the video breakdown that will include a new global forecast for the spring:

March 13, 2018

Well, here we are 7 days away from the vernal equinox...and still look at winter wanting to fight on.

The good news is that we will at least have some warm spikes in the mist of this fight, but cold attacks nonetheless.

So when can we expect this?

First chance is later today/tonight.Snow squalls will move in from the north today. Some may be mixed with rain for a few hours as we climb above 40. But it will be mostly snow this evening. Given the instability these little guys will have, each squall can produce a quick .25" to .50" of snow with low visibility. Most of WAVE Country will have a risk at them, but not all of you will experience them. If you do, watch for slick spots to form after sunset as we drop toward the freezing mark and even lower overnight.

We will get a break for a couple of days with a warm spike Thursday.

Friday/Saturday will feature rain at times, and depending on the time of day...snow. There is still a good cold pocket to our northeast during this period. How much of that invades our area while the rain moves through is still questionable. I think it is fair to add at least a mention of frozen precip during the colder parts of Friday and Saturday and just rain during the warmer periods. This will need some fine-tuning as the data I have looked at so far is quite cluttered and when you deal with temperature sensitive weather....there is no need to get too specific just yet.

Another warm spike comes Sunday and Monday...but the "spikes" do not look as impressive as they once did. The EURO especially has been trending toward a flatter pattern and nearly a colder look. It continues that trend today and GFS is now starting to catch up. While I do think we will warm some with some rain/thunder, the risk is there for this to go to snow at the end...likely next Tuesday. But that is all I can really say at this point.

March 08, 2018

Once again snow showers this morning cause problems on the roads. We will improve things today as the dry air really takes over. This will allow for more sunshine and a clearing sky tonight.

Friday's setup is interesting with the warm front. Dewpoints look low to start with. So the question is evaporative cooling. This is when the atmosphere will have to use moisture falling through the clouds to bring the dewpoint up to reach saturation...at which point precipitation then reaches the ground. However, when you do that...the temperature drops as well. The "drop" that could take place would put us into snow range Friday evening. These setups can be very tricky as I have witnessed many times that too much of the moisture was "used" up by the time saturation was reached and therefore it is a non-event. As of now, there appears to be enough for a band of rain to go to wet snow and yes, accumulate. It also appears the "drop" would only take us to about 34 degrees which would keep the roads wet/slushy and the snow on the grass. This is all model based for now until we can get good weather balloon data tomorrow to verify what the models have been hinting. So stay tuned for updates.

The weekend system is starting to lock in on a track...mainly south. This doesn't mean we will escape all the impacts of the system. The video today explain the latest...

March 07, 2018

Most of those items are minor, FYI. The video will focus more on the Sunday-Monday setup which is complex---yet even that one would not be a major snow as it stands now.

Here is how the rest of the week/end will likely evolve...

Rest of today...Upper low will spin overhead with its center to our east. Dry air will fit this setup but there is enough moisture in the lower layers to allow for clouds to re-form if any sun breaks develop. Also enough moisture for some snow showers to develop from time to time...with their motion shifting in from the N/NW. Some sprinkles may mix in with some of the snow showers if we warm up enough. But the cold layer looks thick enough for the flakes.

Tonight...There is another lobe of energy that will drop in tonight that could help promote some briefly heavier snow showers. The question here is the amount of moisture still left vs the energy to promote them. The plan is just to mention snow showers for now, but keep in mind we will be colder tonight than we were this morning---so any snow bursts could lead to slick spots. No widespread issues expected.

Thursday...Flurries possible early but the moisture content will really start to fade by this point. In fact, some sunshine is expected. The flow/atmosphere is colder, but sunshine would help in offsetting that to allow for highs fairly close to today's.

Friday/Friday night...We look dry during the day. There will be a warm front lifting the air over KY/TN later that night. That should promote rain to develop right over us. The issue is that there may be just enough cold air for a burst of snow if the rate is high enough. Light snowfall amounts would again be possible where that banding forms. Current thinking is roughly Salem to about Danville, KY. But we will adjust that.

Saturday...Depending on how active that Friday night wave is, some early showers will be possible. This would lead to a mostly dry day with highs in the 50s. I say "mostly dry" as our main southern low will be ejecting from the Plains Saturday afternoon. Its forward speed will determine if we need to add rain into the forecast Saturday night or wait until Sunday.

Sunday/Monday...This is the complex part. Southern low that has a varying track along with a smaller piece of energy diving in from Canada. Do they meet up? Do they offset in timing that one arrives much earlier than the other? Those are some of the questions we have on this ordeal.

I go into more details on the video and also a quick look for the rest of March.

March 06, 2018

The pattern once we move into next week will feature more amplitude changes in the jet stream. This is going to give the operational models a field day with daily changes.

Using the ensembles is the best way to go with these patterns and then you can narrow down more with operational models when closer in time.

For example, look at the models and ensembles for late next week:

The top left is GFS operational. Below it is its ensemble mean.The middle box is the EURO operational and below the ensemble>And the Canadian operational isn't posted, but you can see its ensemble in the bottom right.

Notice how the ensembles agree fairly well that we will be coming out of a colder pattern, and entering a warmer one. They also show a potential strong storm system in the Plains. This setup would indeed favor a warm flow for us with t-storms in time and perhaps even strong thunderstorms.

But the operational models are not exactly on board. Well, the GFS is actually closer than the EURO...which wants to drop in another snow-maker for us.

Even looking at the new LONG term EURO model that ran last night, you can see it is trending warmer for that period. So we will keep that trend going in our forecast with the support being there.

The unsettling part is that the trend to return to either a flat/zonal flow and/or a dip over the East keeps showing up as we move toward the end of March and start April.

It still is there for mid April.

Does that mean more wintry weather? Not necessarily. These maps are 5 day averages. My feeling on this is that it will indicate a classic severe weather season for the Plains. Not to say we won't have t-storms in our area as well but several warm climbs and cool drops would take place. Basically what you would expect for spring.

March 05, 2018

We have a very busy weather that will take us through the next 7 days.

So let's break it up into time periods:

Tonight's rain:The strong east/dry flow is eating away at this rain band long enough to keep us dry...but cloudy. Eventually, that flow will ease and the rain band will win out. That would make this a nighttime rain event coming out way. Rain totals look light. Generally .25" or less.

Tuesday:The upper low attach to the above will help provide for a strong W/SW wind during the day. Gusts over 30 mph likely. Warm as well with highs in the 60s.

Tuesday night/Wednesday:The low will slide south right on top of us. That colder air aloft will then get pushed down toward the lower levels. This will really cool us off overnight. Cold enough that some snow may either mix in with some rain showers or the rain showers could go over to some bursts of wet snow. Minor grass amounts possible. Near repeat on Wednesday, but the sun angle is higher so the weak nature of this low will battle that and likely keep most areas in liquid form if anything does develop. Chilly otherwise.

Friday-Weekend:Our main period to watch.One low moves by Friday lift the air enough to lead to some rain showers. Snow possible north but looks out of our range for now. This may linger into Friday night/early Saturday.The next wave will be Saturday and looks to bring rain mainly south toward evening. Then then final wave will pass to our south Sunday. However, strong energy from Canada will then dive down and link up with this last one. It is the "linking up/phasing" of these two that could really make things interesting in our weather. Rain to snow for Sunday is how things are trending. It will be a setup to watch. Still plenty of time to going crazy with the modeling adjustments. :)

March 01, 2018

Tracking the band of rain and some thunder just west of I-65. The lightning has been very sparse as there is not much instability to work of course. However, the band of rain can tap into the stronger winds aloft to produce gusts over 40 mph briefly in some locations.

The actual cold front will pass through just after lunch. The wind will then shift from the SW to NW and remain gusty with speeds over 35 mph at times. The NW flow will allow for temperatures to drop into the 50s...40s and eventually 30s this evening. Most of the rain will be ahead/along the cold front with dry weather after its passage.

Weekend still looks sunny and pleasant.

There will be another front on Monday with rain and some gusty winds.

The setup remains unclear next week as there will be a couple of waves that will slide in. The question is the depth of cold air when they move through. There is still the risk for rain or snow or even a mix.

At this time, we should start to warm back up again next weekend. Hopefully that will take place in time for the St. Patrick's Day Parade in the Highlands on the 10th.

February 28, 2018

Focus again on the short-term. I will touch base on next week through mid-March on the video. Once we can calm the flooding issues down I will be able to focus more on the trends ahead and any snow chances. Which I do see some potential of.

First wave of rainfall passing through now. Heaviest over KY, lighter amounts for IN. Overall, roughly .25" north up to about .60" south. Minor flash flooding could occur during those moments of moderate rain, but this will not a be a widespread issue. Areas rivers will continue to drop...but at a slow rate.

A break in the coverage of rain expected this afternoon into the evening. I doubt the radar will go completely clear, but many spots will have some dry time.

Once we move into the late evening/overnight, a low pressure/warm front will pass into the region. This will kick up our wind speeds and help promote clusters of thunderstorms. Temperatures should hold steady or even right overnight with such a strong south flow. Rainfall amounts will HIGHLY vary based on any t-storm action. We will just have to trend that carefully this evening with the radar. So keep the WAVE 3 Weather App handy!

ALERT DAY: ThursdayThe alert is for changeable weather that has a good potential to impact your day. And Thursday is certainly one of those.

We start off with rain/thunder in the morning. But then we get a break around 11am. It will be during that break that we will need to watch the satellite/radar trends carefully. There remains potential for the clouds to break up during lunch. This comes/goes on the models, but given the wind fields...still look probable. Any sun breaks will then lead to heating into the the 60s. When you combine that with dewpoints in the 50s and decent wind shear, all you need is a trigger. And that will be with the strong cold front/low pressure passing through. The risk is there for a broken line of thunderstorms. Hail will be possible along with strong wind gusts. Again, this threat is NOT high but non-zero.

In fact, the window for any strong t-storms is quite small. Roughly 11am- 1pm. After that, the cold front slam in with strong winds from the northwest at 30 to even 40 mph. That alone would cause some tree damage/blow objects around. But when you have a wind shift of SW to NW at high speeds, you can twist/turn the trees. Add the soggy ground, and now you have a setup for some trees to fall. So be aware of that potential.

Grand totals on rainfall look to range from .50" to as much as 1.75" across southern KY. Thunderstorms can really throw that off however in isolated locations.

It will also turn colder. Temperatures in the mid 60s at noon...falling into the 40s by the PM commute. Wind chills likely in the upper 30s.

So as you can see, the potential is there for a changeable day from morning to afternoon. We will keep you posted.