Friday, October 7, 2016

Below you will find the federal polling averages for the month of September. The averages combine four federal polls (Léger, Mainstreet, and Forumx 2) and one Quebec poll (CROP), altogether surveying 10,481 Canadians.

Compared to the August 2016 averages, the Liberals were up 1.8 points, the Conservatives were unchanged, the New Democrats were down two points, and the Greens were down 0.5 points.

Monthly tracking chart

The tracking chart below shows the monthly polling averages stretching back to January 2009. Elections and campaigns as well as the arrival of new federal leaders are also included.

You can click or tap on the chart above to magnify it.

Seat projections

The chart below shows how many seats each of the parties would have won in an election held in this month. This seat projection uses the current first-past-the-post system. For full methodology, see here.

The tracking chart below shows the maximum and minimum seat ranges (which are wider than the likely ranges above) projected for each party since the 2015 federal election.

For PR, each province retains the number of seats they currently have. The number of seats each party receives is rounded up or down according to the vote share received in each province, and any leftover seats are awarded to the party that finished in first place in the region.

A very simple calculation is done for AV. Because the Liberals and New Democrats tend to be each other's second choice, they are awarded any seat where they are projected to be in first place (along with the Greens). Any seat that the Conservatives or Bloc Québécois leads with 45 per cent or more is awarded to that party. Any seat where the Conservatives or Bloc Québécois is in first place but with less than 45 per cent is given to the Liberals, the NDP, or the Greens, depending on which of these parties was in second place.

Though a crude method, past experience with more sophisticated methods have yielded virtually identical results in the current political landscape.

These projections also assumes no change of behaviour by the parties based on the system in place, no change in the behaviour of voters, and no other parties on the ballot. All of these assumptions are likely to be greatly tested in any change to the electoral system.

Nicklebelt in Northern Ontario is probably also in the running for the NDP Ontario AV seat. It is a swing riding for all three major parties usually alternating between the Grits and Dippers.

It really says something about the NDP particularly in Ontario that Toronto-Danforth, Trinity-Spadina and Parkdale-High Park are not competitive for the NDP. They have an existential crisis whether they address it in time is the question?

Nicklebelt may be the Ontario AV seat, located in Northern Ontario it is a swing seat for all three major parties but, leans Liberal-NDP more than Liberal-Tory.

As the poll averages demonstrate the NDP has an existential problem. They desperately need new ideas and policies but, we haven't heard a new policy proposal from them in decades. Trudeau's quasi-constitutional reform of the Senate should be an opportunity to press forward with their stated position of abolition but, only silence emanates from the third party benches. Their support for the Sherbrooke declaration a non-starter in English Canada, yet, they press on oblivious to the pounding they took at the last election in Quebec, hoping beyond hope that separatist minded Quebeckers will save their party!

Honestly, at this point it looks like dumping Mulcair was a bad idea. Old Tom was far from perfect but, the NDP is now rudderless and listing badly to port. Lots of time until 2019 but, if the Dippers in Ottawa refuse to do their job to oppose and critique the Government then why have them around?

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Details on the methodology of the poll aggregation and seat projections are available here and here. Methodology for the forecasting model used during election campaigns is available here.

Projections on this site are subject to the margins of error of the opinion polls included in the model, as well as the unpredictable nature of politics at the riding level. The degree of uncertainty in the projections is also reflected by the projections' high and low ranges, when noted.

ThreeHundredEight.com is a non-partisan site and is committed to reporting on polls responsibly.