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Mike Valenti’s Wednesday Watchers: Rehab Edition 9-28-11

MORGANTOWN, WV - SEPTEMBER 24: of the West Virginia Mountaineers of the Louisiana State University Tigers during the game on September 24, 2011 at Mountaineer Field in Morgantown, West Virginia. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)MORGANTOWN, WV - SEPTEMBER 24: Head coach Les Miles of the Louisiana State University Tigers talks to his players during the game against the West Virginia Mountaineers on September 24, 2011 at Mountaineer Field in Morgantown, West Virginia. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

Last Week 3-2

Season 10-9-1

Solid recovery that was almost great if I didn’t chicken out and swap the TOTAL in LSU game instead of LSU -5.5 but it is what it is.

Syracuse -2.5 vs. Toledo—WIN

The Orange nearly blew this thing but got it done. Scarier than I thought it would be. Never like OT under any circumstances.

Oregon -14.5 @ Arizona—WIN

The Ducks dominated this puppy and at one point where up 35-3. Several silly mistakes cost them a 50-point win but they ended up finishing the deal on the back of LaMichael James and his 288-yard night. Easy cover.

San Diego State +10.5 @ Michigan—LOSS

Several Aztec drives ended in turnovers or mistakes and Michigan did what they do best, let Denard do it all. Sloppy but effective. Aztecs were never a true threat to win and barely threatened to cover.

Oklahoma State +4.5 @ Texas A&M-WIN

The Aggies did what the Aggies do, choke in a big game. A&M was up 20-3 at one point and then decided to pack it in and ended up getting dominated. Late goofy play doesn’t indicate how well Cowboys played. Cover is the desired result.

LSU v WVU TOTAL UNDER 50

Oops. Guess I didn’t see LSU destroying the total by themselves! Whatever. Darn near every week will have a stink bomb and this was it.

THIS WEEK

For all those who are in full blown delusion and think I’m a slappy I give you…

Ohio State -3 vs Michigan State

Biggest thing I can say is if I were in Vegas this weekend I’d be betting against my beloved Spartans. We don’t show up on road against good teams. We are banged up. It’s still the big ten opener at Ohio Stadium. The 3-point line is a joke and the buckeyes are the easy choice here. No fandom in picking games.

Kansas State +3.5 vs Baylor

Baylor plays ZERO defense and eventually that will catch up to you. I think going on the road against a decent big 12 team will be that spot. KSU comes off huge win on the road versus Miami and the defense has played really well. Take the home dog.

Kentucky +30 @ LSU

This line will only go up as week goes on so if I could wait I would…but I’m stuck picking midweek. This is a letdown spot. LSU has played ramped up all out football for nearly a month. How many weeks can you dial it up in a row? This is a ton of points and the Wildcats cannot play worse than they played last week versus Florida. Give me the dog.

Boise State -27 vs. Nevada

REVENGE. Period. Boise looked ahead last week and was sloppy and the line is a gift. This is not the same Nevada team that shocked Boise last season and the Broncos will make a statement here.

Northwestern +8 @ Illinois

Wildcard pick here. Wildcats get Dan Persa back. They also are coming off a bye week. Rested, angry as hell after bad loss to Army, and now get their best player back. Give me the TD and yes, I hate Ron Zook.