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Just about a month ago, with Apple shares down almost 10% from their $705.07 peak, Rich Ross predicted the stock would test its 200-day moving average for the first time in nearly a year.

Four weeks later that call has proven prescient, with shares testing and breaking through the level over the past few sessions. He said then that shares could get as low as $574 before bouncing back; they hit $574.75 Friday.

Now Ross thinks there could be something of a rebound on the way, but likely one that only lasts a short while before running out of steam.

“Apple is at a great proving ground,” Ross said in an interview with Forbes Monday, “near its July lows and a support trend line that goes all the way back to June 4.” The stock has what he calls "compelling support" at around May's lows in the $555 range. Couple that with the start of holiday shopping and there is an argument to be made that a reversal and move higher are in the offing.

Ross believes a holiday rally will fall short of the record high though and could segue into another drop at some point after January earnings.

Shorting Apple near a holiday season, when it will have shelves full of recently-introduced products like the iPhone 5, fourth-generation iPad and iPad mini, could be a dicey proposition though. That is part of why, for Ross' money, the stock is a stay-away at the moment.

He remains unconvinced that the stock is prepping for another huge run, but after an almost 20% slide he also doesn’t see the clear signals of further decline he saw a month ago.

“It’s not the worst chart I’ve ever seen; it’s not one you run around like Chicken Little yelling ‘the sky is falling,’” Ross quips.

There are reasons to worry beyond just the technicals though. Apple’s recent management shakeup comes at a time when more voices are questioning whether the company has another run of category-defining devices in the pipeline. (See “iPhone Loyalty Is Waning: Are You Surprised?”)

On Monday, the company said it sold three million iPads (minis and fourth-generation) over the weekend, but Ross notes the number lacks context. The figure was double that of the prior iPad’s launch weekend, but “how do we know what they were looking for internally?” he asks.

The market’s reaction, a 1.4% advance, struck Ross as “a bit of a yawn” compared with the movement off sales reports from previous product debuts.

Seth Setrakian, co-head of U.S. equities at proprietary trading firm First New York Securities, says however you trade Apple it is critical to stay disciplined.

Like Ross he is wary of the shares – “the big thing for me was that it lagged in the beginning of the month,” he says, when historically it has gotten a lift from new money coming in – but Setrakian sees a way to play it even during what he calls a “shakeout phase” after the stock lost some believers.

The strategy is to nibble with the stock above its 200-day moving average, buying half of a planned position, with a tight stop -- or sell trigger -- at that level. Then he would consider buying the rest of the position when (if?) the stock climbs back over $600.

While Ross and Setrakian both have their concerns about Apple shares, neither doubts that the company is still a juggernaut in the consumer electronics space. For reinforcement on that front just have a peek at the 1% drop in Intel’s shares Monday, driven by a report that Apple may be looking to replace the company’s chips in its Mac computers with technology from ARM Holdings it already uses in iPhones and iPads.

Shares of Apple, essentially flat on Election Day at $584.51, were still modestly below the 200-day moving average.