Tag Archives | emerging economies

“Consensus wisdom” is a handy way of keeping up with events. Nobody likes to be the person who says “I don’t know” when the boss asks a question about something important. But unfortunately, “consensus wisdom” is often wrong, as Ipsos MORI confirm in their new ’Perils of Perception‘ survey, As the authors note: “It highlights how […]

Serious questions need to be asked about the likely level of future demand growth for oil and auto sales in Emerging Markets (EMs), as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog Oil market volatility has reached near-record levels in H1 this year, as the first chart shows. […]

Attention has rightly been focused on the collapse of oil prices over the past 6 months. These have further to fall, but the major part of the move must now be behind us. After all, Brent was at $104/bbl when I first forecast the move in mid-August, and closed at $56/bbl last night, so probably “only” has $20/bbl-$30/bbl further downside. […]

The global economy really isn’t getting any better. That’s the key conclusion from the blog’s quarterly survey of company results for Q2. Of course, some companies are doing well – either because of shale gas economics, or their own market positioning. But consumer giant Unilever summarised the general picture very well: “Market growth continued to slow in emerging […]

Most of today’s executives and policymakers grew up during the SuperCycle. Many therefore continue to believe that a return to constant growth is somehow inevitable. Sadly, of course, they are doomed to disappointment. And disappointment is the predominant message from the blog’s usual quarterly review of company results. Thus BASF note that “achieving our earnings target […]

Prof Nouriel Roubini, one of the few to forecast the current Crisis, is very positive about the opportunities for growth in India over the next 20 years. Speaking in Mumbai, he argued that: • “While the economies of India and China are not large enough to lead global growth, emerging markets remain ‘bright spots’ compared […]

China’s ethylene and propylene imports have surged in recent months, as the country has diverted naphtha to supply gasoline and diesel needs. ICIS news, reporting official China Customs figures, says 2007 ethylene imports were over 400% higher at 510KT, versus just 117KT in 2006. Ethylene exports also more than halved to 50KT in 2007, from […]

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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.

The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.

Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.