There's no doubt about the most intriguing first-round question in the 2013 NFL draft.

"Where will you go, Geno Smith?"

The West Virginia product has emerged as this year's consensus top quarterback prospect, but unlike the past four years, that status likely won't get Smith drafted No. 1 overall. There was no such drama with Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck—the team at the top desperately needed a franchise QB and simply took the best available.

The Kansas City Chiefs, who hold that pole position in 2013, chose to invest in another Smith, former San Francisco 49er Alex, as their immediate new starter. That hasn't stopped their new offensive-minded coach, Andy Reid, from name-dropping Geno.

At last week's annual league meeting, Reid praised Geno Smith's talent and said he's still an option for the Chiefs' top pick. It's Reid's job to sell that to the teams picking behind them, but we're not buying they would actually take Smith if they stand pat.

After the Chiefs, Smith is "in play" for every team 2-9 with the exception of the Lions at No. 5. From the Jaguars to the Jets, here's breaking down their probability to land Smith—if he's available—on April 25:

Jacksonville (No. 2)

The Jaguars underwent a regime change with general manager Gene Smith and coach Mike Mularkey being replaced by the inspiring combination of David Caldwell and Gus Bradley. Their current first-round starter, Blaine Gabbert, has struggled to develop and stay healthy in his two seasons. Geno Smith provides the outlet for a quick reboot with a new offensive staff.

There was nothing insincere about the heavy interest team officials showed in Smith during his pro scouting day in Morgantown earlier in the month. Jacksonville could also use one of the several top pass rushers in the class, but if the organization is unofficially ready to move on from Gabbert, the draft's best passer makes the most sense. Probability: 60 percent.

Oakland (No. 3)

The Raiders are hoping they can restructure Carson Palmer's hefty contract to keep the seasoned veteran as their short-term starter. But if he doesn't agree to take a pay cut from $13 million, they should be ready to move on at quarterback. That might lead to an in-house transition. Even with Palmer, they are committed to seeing more of what Terrelle Pryor can do as a dual threat.

Smith, as the fastest-running QB in the class, has some sizzle appeal for Oakland, but GM Reggie McKenzie is working to make the team's personnel decisions based more on substance. We're calling out the Raiders' interest in Smith. Like the Chiefs, Oakland is more about trying to force the hand of another team to move up. Probability: 20 percent.

Philadelphia (No. 4)

New Eagles coach Chip Kelly can run a fast-paced NFL offense without a quarterback who can run wild. Smith just proved he could deliver well in a fast-paced college offense without running much at all. Forget the common misconceptions—Kelly and Smith would fit and work well together.

Smith also provides the ideal happy medium between Reid holdovers Michael Vick and Nick Foles. Smith offers Vick's mobility with more size and without age and durability issues. Smith has Foles' youth with a better makeup for Kelly to mold.

Kelly should want to attach himself to a new QB, given how well it worked for Reid in Philadelphia (with Donovan McNabb) 14 years ago. The Eagles could go in several directions to upgrade their team, but going with Smith will get strong consideration if the Jaguars don't take him. Probability: 40 percent.

Cleveland (No. 6)

Here we go again. The Browns are remixing their offense with coach Rob Chudzinski and coordinator Norv Turner. They also have a new GM, Michael Lombardi, who isn't sold on their current quarterback situation. Brandon Weeden was a first-round pick by the previous regime and didn't do enough as a rookie to cement his status as a starter going forward.

Chudzinski was hired for his good work with Cam Newton in Carolina, and Turner is coming off having a great rapport with Philip Rivers in San Diego. Smith's skill-set and competitive drive should be appealing as a collaborative effort. The Browns could also use a lot of help on defense, such as a pass rusher or cornerback, but their quicker ticket to catching up with the rest of the AFC North is hitting on a quarterback. Probability: 40 percent.

Arizona (No. 7)

It's appropriate the Cardinals have been the most difficult team to read in the pre-draft game of cards, as they really haven't shown their hand. At one point, it seemed like a no-brainer that the new coach-GM combo of Bruce Arians and Steve Keim would take Smith if available. Now there are doubts they would take a potential starting quarterback anywhere in the draft. Arians isn't enamored with the wave of running style QBs and has said this year's class lacks any "wow factor."

The Cards have moved on from being burned by the Kevin Kolb deal and have started their reshuffling by bringing in Drew Stanton. There also is the feeling they are biding their time to go the Chiefs' route find a viable veteran option with starting experience—such as the Raiders' Palmer.

With San Francisco and Seattle looking uncatchable in the NFC West for 2013 no matter whom Arizona puts under center, it's also smart to find a shorter-term solution this year and wait to draft a franchise quarterback (Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater?) in 2014. Smith likely won't be playing in the desert as a rookie. Probability: 10 percent.

Buffalo (No. 8)

The Bills, more than any team picking in the top 10, are desperate for a quarterback after letting Ryan Fitzpatrick go and having only Tarvaris Jackson as their fallback option. They just had Smith conduct a private workout, but the big question is whether they like him so much more than other prospects such as North Carolina State's Mike Glennon, Syracuse's Ryan Nassib and Florida State's E.J. Manuel to take Smith this high.

The Bills have been intrigued by Glennon's classic dropback look for a while, and Nassib has the direct connection with coach Doug Marrone and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, as all three were together with the Orange last season. The Bills should feel good about coming away with any of those quarterbacks, and the possibility that Glennon, Nassib or Manuel will still be on the board for their second-round turn (No. 41 overall).

Buffalo is required to do its due diligence in terms of scouting Smith, but there's a much better chance the team will end up with one of those other three QBs. Probability: 20 percent.

New York Jets (No. 9)

The Jets supposedly, suddenly are more into Smith after his pro day. It's not far-fetched—new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg, from his days with working with Reid in Philadelphia, should be able to see that Smith can do well in his brand of the West Coast passing scheme. The team also wants to bring in some legitimate competition for Mark Sanchez. David Garrard has only a slightly better chance of pushing him for the job than did Tim Tebow.

Unless new GM John Idzik can stockpile some picks (say by swinging the Darrelle Revis deal in time for the draft), trading up into a better position to take Smith won't happen. But if he somehow falls here, New York shouldn't hesitate to grab him. Probability: 30 percent.