The report, published by the Demand Institute, a subsidiary of theConference Board, conducted a detailed look at 2,200 of the nation’s largest cities and towns and surveyed 10,000 households about their housing situation.

The report found that among those 2,200 cities and towns, the wealthiest 10% accounted for 52% of the country’s total housing wealth, while the poorest 40% held just 8% of all housing wealth. Since 2000, the value of housing for the top decile rose 73% — or by around $2 trillion in nominal dollars — while the bottom 40% of the market rose by 59%, or just $260 billion.

The median forecast of 2.1% annual price growth will mark a slowdown from the sharp price gains of the past two years as investors retreat from scooping up bargain-priced foreclosures. Weak household income growth and more sales by traditional sellers who eventually list their homes for sale should curb price gains, researchers wrote.

The projected gains will put national median prices near its nominal 2006 peak, though after adjusting for expected inflation rates, median home prices will still stand 25% below their 2006 level.

But the recovery “masks wide local discrepancies, with some markets soaring ahead and others still very much distressed,” the report says. “There are clear winners and losers.” Among the top 50 largest metro areas, home prices will go up by 32% between 2012 and 2018, while the bottom five will see prices gain by just 11%. (See a full list of the 50 largest metro areas below)

The report forecasts a snapback in household formation, with 1.3 million net new households created this year. Higher household formation rates should push total housing completions to 1.5 million next year.

At the same time, the report suggests many of these households will rent—not buy — their housing units, meaning that the homeownership rate will not rise above 65.5% by 2018, well below its 69% peak from 2004. The report forecasts 30% of new housing units will be multifamily units, double the proportion seen during the past decade’s housing boom.

Finally, the report warns that as housing costs — both prices, mortgage rates, and rents– continue to rise, affordability gaps will grow. The analysis estimates that 41% of households have a moderate or severe housing-cost burden, in which more than 30% of pretax income goes towards essential housing expenses. Among renters, some 31% spend between 30% and 50% of their pretax income on housing costs, and 25% spend over half of their income on housing. This serves as a headwind for the housing market by hindering the ability of households to save for a down payment.

“There is a wide gap between what householders aspire to purchase and what they can afford, and even between what they spend on housing today and what they can comfortably afford,” the report concludes.

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