Task Force Report Service Demand

Service Demand Projections
for 2010

As a way of thinking about the magnitude of future long term care needs,
and the scope of the strategies required to address them, it is useful to
make estimates of future service utilization and demand based upon
current utilization and demand and projected population growth. These
estimates assume, for planning purposes only, that current trends in
population, disability rates, and other socioeconomic factors, as well as
regulatory programmatic conditions, all remain the same. In reality,
changes are likely to occur within the next 10 years that would affect
the estimates provided in this section.

1. Adult Day Health Care
Currently there are 110 adult day health care clients served each day
with a waiting list of 96 persons. The primary age group served is
persons 75 and over. To meet 2010 projections, there would be 178 clients
served each day and a waiting list of 156 persons.

2. Senior Centers Currently there are 5,833 seniors enrolled at the County’s senior
centers, and they made approximately 188,212 visits to the centers in FY
2001. In 2010, there would be a needed capacity for 11,700 enrolled
seniors making 347,000 visits.

3.Transportation Service by FASTRAN
One-way rides provided by FASTRAN in FY 2001 totaled over 542,000 for
elderly and disabled riders, a 9.6% increase over FY 2000. In 2010, it
would take over 890,000 rides to provide an equivalent level of service.

4. Home Delivered Meals
In 2001, 237,657 meals were delivered to 1,323 persons. In 2010, 390,200
meals would be delivered to 1,900 persons.

5. Housing Authority’s Waiting List
In 1999, there were 548 elderly persons and 1,219 persons with
disabilities on the Fairfax County Housing Authority’s waiting list for
assisted housing. By 2010, growth in these segments of the population
could increase these numbers to 787 elderly and 1,476 persons with
disabilities.

6. Residential Mental Health Services
Currently, there are 560 persons awaiting admission to one of the four
mental health group homes in the County. Projections for 2010 are not
meaningful, since those who apply now do not have a chance of being
admitted in their lifetime. The new 36-bed facility, Stevenson Place,
already has a waiting list of 70 persons.

7. Group Homes for Persons with Mental Retardation, Concern over
Caregivers
Based on 2001 survey data, there are 631 persons awaiting placement in a
residential setting. Without more specific demographic information
regarding the number and age distribution of persons with mental
retardation, projections about 2010 demand cannot be made. However, there
is concern over the age of the caregivers for the persons on the waiting
list. Twelve percent are 70 or over; 16 percent are age 60-69; 39 percent
are age 50-59. Currently, 37% of the individuals on the waiting list is
considered to be in a "high-risk" situation; that is, the family
feels they cannot continue with their current care arrangement. In ten
years, as the current group of caregivers ages, the number of persons in
high-risk situations is likely to increase.

8. Home Repair for the Elderly and Disabled
Approximately 80 homes are repaired each year by the Housing Authority’s
home repair program for the elderly and disabled, with a waiting list of
40 homes. Currently, 36 percent of the Community’s housing stock is 30
years old or older, and nearly 9 percent of the population is 65 or over.
In 2010, 59 percent of the housing stock will be 30 years old or older,
and nearly 12 percent of the population will be 65 or over. It is
difficult to predict what service requirements these two trends may
combine to create.

9. Assisted Living Beds
In 2001, there were 3,209 assisted living beds in Fairfax. Assuming that
persons age 75 and over are those most likely to live in assisted living
facilities, the equivalent number of beds needed in 2010 would be 4,200.
The current population of younger adults with more severe disabilities
could well impact on that number beyond the year 2010.

10. Affordable Assisted Living Beds
A 2000 study commissioned by the Fairfax County Housing and
Redevelopment Authority found no affordable assisted living beds in
Fairfax and a current annual demand for 610 beds from residents and 406
from outside the Community for a total of 1,016 affordable assisted
living beds. In 2010, assuming no changes in the percentage of low-income
elderly, the annual demand would be 1,645.

11. Congregate Housing
There are currently 2,768 congregate housing units in Fairfax. In 2010,
there would be a need for about 4,500.

12. Nursing Beds
There are currently 1,988 nursing home beds in Fairfax, and there is a
state moratorium on the construction of new beds. Using 1995 national
utilization rates per thousand for the age groups 65-74 (10 per
thousand), 75-85 (46 per thousand), and 85 and over (199 per thousand),
the number of beds needed in 2010 would be approximately 4,860. Using the
1998 Northern Virginia utilization rate for persons age 65 and over (27.9
per thousand), the number of beds in 2010 would be 3,710. The latter
figure may be low due to the large increase in the group most likely to
use nursing beds, persons age 85 and over, between 1998 and 2010.

13. Case Management
Currently, there are twenty-nine staff-year-equivalent positions
providing case management services through the Fairfax County Department
of Family Services, Adult Services and the Care Network for Seniors, with
an average caseload of 45 each. To maintain this caseload ratio, there
would need to be 35 staff-year-equivalent positions to provide case
management to approximately 1,600 cases by the year 2010.

Recommendations

The Task Force is recommending twenty-one objectives and approximately
ninety strategies for improving the system of long term care services in
Fairfax. The strategies are organized into four theme areas: Increasing
Public Awareness, Connecting People to Services, Promoting Independent,
Supportive Living and Improving and Expanding a Qualified Long Term Care
Workforce. In addition to the four theme areas, the Task Force felt it
was important to recommend a structure for ensuring the accomplishment of
the objectives it recommended. Therefore, an Overall Strategy was
developed which, if executed, will ensure that the Task Force
Recommendations are implemented.