I track people who are disrupting the world of mobile technology. Non-conformists, innovators and agitators are this blog's unsung heroes, from entrepreneurs to scientists, to rebellious hackers. I'm the author of "We Are Anonymous: Inside the Hacker World of LulzSec, Anonymous and the Global Cyber Insurgency", (Little Brown, 2012) which The New York Times called a "lively, startling book that reads as 'The Social Network' for group hackers." I recently relocated to Forbes' San Francisco office, and was previously Forbes' London bureau chief from 2008-12, interviewing British billionaires like Philip Green and controversial figures like Mohammed Al Fayed; I wrote last year's billionaires cover story on Russia's Yuri Milner, and have broken stories like the Facebook-Spotify partnership in 2011. Before all this I had stints at the BBC and as a radio journalist. You can watch me on 'The Daily Show' here. If you have a story idea or tip, e-mail me at polson@forbes.com or follow me on Twitter: parmy.

Analyst: Why BlackBerry 10 Won't Save RIM

Research in Motion will make a giant leap towards relevance on Wednesday when it unveils a new BlackBerry 10 smartphone and operating system. RIM showed Forbes a demo of the new-look interface earlier this month, and the software looked sleek, efficient and perfect for professionals. But can its much-hyped launch reverse a long-term decline that has beset Research in Motion in the last two years: a share price down by 73%, along with slimming market share and profits?

There are an estimated 80 million BlackBerry users out there, and a good chunk will almost certainly upgrade to the new device over the next two quarters to give RIM a financial boost after months of holding out for BB10. But that may be as good as it gets according to analysts at Ovum, who contend that RIM will continue to suffer from two big problems:

1) The “BYOD” phenomenon, in which companies have given up buying smartphones (read: BlackBerrys) for their own staff, leaving employees to choose their own devices.

2) A struggle to appeal to mainstream consumers.

As IT departments have let employees buy their own smartphones, more of them are choosing iPhones and Android devices over BlackBerrys. BlackBerry phones currently has just 1.1% of the U.S. smartphone market, according to the latest statistics from Kantar Worldpanel, while the iPhone has grown to 51% and Android, 44%.

To appeal to a broader range of consumers, RIM perhaps should have distanced itself from the category of “company phone,” yet it shows no signs of doing that with BlackBerry 10, Ovum contends. RIM has touted multitasking, productivity, email contact and calendar applications in its latest teasers for the device, the “best BlackBerry for BlackBerry users,” rather than better gaming, content consumption or social networking experience to appeal to a wider audience, says Ovum’s lead telecom analyst Jan Dawson.

“We can’t fault RIM for wanting to hold onto its 80 million existing subscribers,” he says, estimating the Waterloo, Ontario-based company has always sold about half of its devices to new customers, and half to existing BlackBerry user who are upgrading to a newer model. Yet for the last two years, the portion of upgrading BlackBerry users has significantly outweighed the converts — meaning RIM essentially has little choice but to focus on maintaining its existing user base.

To its credit, that user base is strong. The trade-in experts at NextWorth recently pulled together data that showed re-sell values for BlackBerry handsets were not far behind HTC and neck-and-neck with Samsung models, indicating the “dedicated nature of BlackBerrry enthusiasts.” (See chart.)

Smartphone re-sell values; chart via NextWorth

BlackBerry 10 will give RIM a healthy financial boost in the short term, says Dawson, and the company will plod along for a few years yet with its loyal subscriber base, zero debt and some profits.

“But its glory days are past,” he adds “and it is only a matter of time before it reaches a natural end.”

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are you out of your damn mind little mama, the price 99-199, the app store will be 25% than the other two ecosystems,if you were to take a look at the phone and do a little research on your iphone you will see that blackberry has come up with the best of both worlds, have you been listening and looking , brutal year for android and iphone because everyone has had a chance to use those devices and figure out that they do a damn thing , and the android is just horrible, YOU HAVE THE NERVE TO BRING UP BATTERY LIFE ABOUT A BLACKBERRY. THAT HAS NEVER BEEN AN ISSUE, LOOK WHO EVER PAID YOU TO TALK BAD ABOUT BLACKBERRY 10,THEY DIDNT GET THEIR MONEY’S WORTH, BU I THANK YOU, CAUSE YOU JUST PISSED OFF EVERYBODY WITH A BLACKBERRY,and made everyone who has been waiting to leave ishyt and androill make up their mind, i saw your little interview at CES, you didn’t even look at the phone,and you barely listened to JEFF” you will be one of the late bangwagoners, this only you opinion that apple pays you to write, people are more educated about smart phones now and they are looking for more in a mobile computer, that is blackberry 10, nothing you can write will stop this, NOTHING , now get back to angry birds on you iphone

Do any of you know what QNX can do? Stop slamming RIM. I am going to really laugh when the day comes and all these corporations that adopted BYOD get slammed with a serious virus from these open and unsafe devices!

Parmy, once you assertain that the analyst you are about to quote is an idiot, you should move onto something else. Now you look bad. you could have researched the phone and found out that the screen is better than anything else out there, 50% faster than an iPhone 5 and it has Hub, which allows you to see all of your social sites in one glance. This analyst is a fool and you should have spotted this right away.

Yawn…I swear this whole article is posted as a template someplace on the underbelly of the internet.

I have taken a wait and show them attitude. BB10 is going to be huge and sell a lot of phones both to us Crackheads and to those former. QNX is state of the art and is in cars everywhere and the basis for BB10.

These guys act like iOS is new or Andorid is the latest thing. Unix is from 1969 and Linix is from 1983.

iOS is stale and getting towards end of life. Android has so many holes in it I can hack it.

Wow China is 0% did you ever hear of China Mobile? where did you get those stats from..Maybe a hedge fund manager who is short RIM was wishing that was actually true so he get get some return on the fee he is paying you to write this bogus article… Look it that I just Parmied

Well the data point looks silly if you take it back to when RIMM has reign and Appl Android were beginning their steps into handheld device field.RIMM Worlds fastest OS BB10 and the unit price like a pin will drag down Apple over weight,Android slowness,and Samsung cheap manufacturing.RIMM is a surefire winner since it will out date all the products of opponents.What Apple and Android have to offer? They have nothing to beat the RIMM(opppps giga bites,eh?).If they do something to beat BB10 it won’t be possible without copyright infringement.I don’t care who will be screaming but it’s surefire time for RIMM to swim naked.Price tag Rimm and Apple will meet each other at $250 soon.

“…The “BYOD” phenomenon, in which companies have given up buying smartphones (read: BlackBerrys) for their own staff, leaving employees to choose their own devices…”

The BYOD phenom came about because RIM’s BlackBerries got behind the curve as far as User Experience is concerned. Now that they are catching up and even surpassing their competition, I have to ask why I would pay hundreds of dollars for a phone instead of my boss. BYOD will officially be a dying trend as of noon Wednesday.

DAMN!!!! Parmy, you are talking a factual “beating” from the BB10 crowd……let me know if you need any help getting the license plate of that truckload of BB knowledge that is running all over you in a bad, bad way……..ouch