Rainbow 6 Mandatory Payout Offers Gulfstream $16M Double

by Brian Nadeau

January 24, 2018

So, you thought the $16 million Pegasus World Cup was the only thing happening this weekend at Gulfstream Park, eh? Think again.

While the eyes of the racing world will no doubt be focused on the second World Cup Saturday, and the career finale of the Hall of Fame-bound Gun Runner, the eyes of the handicapping world will double back Sunday, when the Rainbow 6 has a mandatory payout. With a carryover of almost $3.2 million entering Wednesday’s card, it’s quite possible that number will approach $5 million come Sunday. Which in turn could blow it up to three times when the dust finally settles. Point being, Gulfstream is certainly the place to be this weekend.

As for the Pegasus itself, the second running dwarfs the first in terms over overall quality. Sure, the Arrogate-California Chrome matchup got a ton of people interested, but the reality is that the rest of the field, aside from Shaman Ghost, was littered with listed stakes types who had no business being in such a race. This year, while Gun Runner is a deserving odds-on proposition, there are countless other options if you’re hoping to send him off to retirement with a defeat.

Bob Baffert ships in West Coast and Collected, who ran 2-3 behind Gun Runner in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and both have a right to hit hard. The freakish miler Sharp Azteca will try to stretch his speed to 1 1/8 miles and could get very brave over a track that has been known to cater to his speedy style. Stellar Wind is a multiple grade I winning mare making her first start for Chad Brown. Gunnevera loves the local circuit and will benefit from a race filled with a ton of early speed. Toast of New York was once second in the Classic and returned from over a three-year layoff with a win. Seeking the Soul enters off a grade I win and has never been better, plus is another who will love all the pace. Even Giant Expectations enters off a breakthrough stakes win and adds more speed to the party.

Point being, while Gun Runner is obviously the most likely winner, he’s not the lock the toteboard will tell you he is, especially after drawing very poorly in the 10-hole, as there’s a ridiculously short run to the first turn. And while last year, it may have been en vogue to try and beat Arrogate and California Chrome, there was only a fleeting chance, at best, based on the competition. This year, the competition has legitimate, worthy upsetters.

As for the Rainbow 6, love it or hate it, it has drawn a ton of interest to Gulfstream over the past few years and we’ve seen countless times on mandatory payout days that the public loves to fire. Sure, I may be a little ambitious with the $16 million-$16 million headline, there’s little doubt it will comfortably pass $10 million, and with a lot of heavy hitters in town and playing aggressively on what will be an awesome Saturday, stakes-laden card, you know darn well they’ll stick around Sunday with a chance at a monumental score.

While the actual sequence is yet to be determined, nor has the card been drawn, it’s clear there will be countless low-level turf races filled to the maximum of 12 horses. Even the chalkiest of winners will pay handsomely, when you’re talking about an eight-figure pool, but if you can get just one price in there, you’ll be rally onto something. And if you get a few more, well, you may be looking at paying off your mortgage.

I’ve repeatedly advocated playing small tickets when the Rainbow carryover gets up there, but that goes completely out the window on a mandatory day. I’ll be amping up my play significantly, and really taking the rubber band off my bankroll. When you’re talking about an eight-figure pool, and a payout that could be life-changing, you fire, and you fire big.

I hope to see you all at Gulfstream this weekend, and that you pick some mighty fast horses along the way. Enjoy!

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3.15.2018

With a carryover fast-approaching $4 million, and national interest building by the day, let’s dip back into the handicapping bag and take a controlled look at Friday’s sequence, which encompasses races 6-11. Race 6: MSW for 3upfm Florida breds going 1-mile on the turf In what looks like a very competitive race for the level, it’s best to spread as deep as your budget allows, since the proven runners look about the same on paper and there figures to be a live firster too. As for the experienced gals, the most upside clearly goes to #6 PURE ONE, who had a tough post (9) on debut then broke 10th-of-11 and could only muster a minor late rally. Clement adds Lasix today, she drew much better and, judging by her strong run to be 5th, beaten just 4 lengths, she has some talent too. Considering #8 SHANGHAI STARLET debuts for Pletcher, you have to give her a look, even though this post is no bargain. The works are promising, JV is here and 80k is a big price for a Florida-bred son of Shanghai Bobby too. Neither #3 SMARTY SMART or #9 TROPICALITY would be a surprise, but the former has had a ton of chances and runs the same race every time, while the latter drew poorly and will be wide every step of the way. I’ll toss #4 SUNFEST in, as he gets a huge jock upgrade with Irad riding, and she fits on paper, even though he’s been plying his trade in the (open) maiden-claiming ranks. Rainbow 6 horses (listed in order of preference): 6,8,3,9,4 Race 7: 25k claimer for 3yos going 5Fs on the turf I’m going to hope that dueling through insane fractions against better is the reason #6 LITTLE PLUMBER came unglued last time, as his maiden breaker two-back was sharp, and he does look like the controlling speed today, so here’s hoping he gets back on the beam. The two more logical runners are #4 ROYAL HOLIDAY, who has also been facing better, while doing the two-turn thing of late, and #5 NONSUCH, who was necked out against better last time and now goes off the claim for Spatz, and while both can win, neither are locks, so I’ll use them, though I don’t trust them completely. Rainbow 6 horses: 6,4,5 Race 8: 12.5k MCL for 4up going 1-mile It’s time for a much needed single, and while doing it in a cheap claimer like this isn’t necessarily the safest angle, it just looks like #3 SOUND OF THE TAP is the right one, as he’s the controlling speed in a race without a lot of early lick, and most importantly, proven talent either. Yes, he rises in class from Penn National, but he dueled the entire way going 6Fs last time, was beaten a neck, while a month clear of 3rd and ahead of a runner who came back to win next time out. Sure, #4 Somedreamscometrue and #8 Fullback Foye are more likely winners, but they are also a combined 0-for-35, so I’ll side with the price who seemingly has a race flow edge too. Rainbow 6 horses: 3 Race 9: 50k starter-allowance for 4upfm going 1 1/16 miles on the turf I’m always a sucker for solid barns who rarely claim horses, and we get it here with #4 PEACE FRONT, who Kenneally claimed for 30k off a N2L win with Brown, and now rises her up in class in a spot she can’t be taken. Yes, she needs to improve, but Eddie K. is 4-for-14 with his claims, so he obviously liked what he saw, and she’ll offer value too. If you want a Lone F at a price, look to #1 HAVANA AFFAIR, who was a big 2nd at the level last time and looks loose as loose can be. I’m only using one more (even though you could easily use #2 Furiosa, #3 Hope’s Roar and #9 Lovin Empire), which is #8 RAINING LEMONS, who has the best form at the level and has run on strongly late in her two starts here this winter, and now goes second-time blinkers. Rainbow 6 horses: 4,1,8 Race 10: Optional claimer (75k/N3X) for 4up going 1-mile on the turf If you’re on a budget, you could do worse than singling #2 FROSTMOURNE, who was a star 3yo turfer last year and could be a real tiger at 4, but he hasn’t been out since October and the works are really on the modest—and light—side, so there’s a chance he needs this, and it is his first start against older horses too. And all of that is why I’ll use #1 PROFITEER on top, as he has a big recency edge and was a good 2nd to GI winner Ring Weekend here last time, for a Shug barn that has enjoyed a big meet. Rainbow 6 horses: 1,2 Race 11: Optional claimer (25k/N1X) for 4up going 7 ½ furlongs on the turf The finale is a real bear, so, like the first leg, spreading seems like the right approach, as you could go upwards of six-deep and still not have the winner. The one thing we do have is an expected energetic pace, especially with #9 Adonis Creed and #10 ATTRIBUTE drawn terribly at this frustrating distance. I’m only using the latter, as he’s outside the former, and has plenty of proven form at this level. But the top pick goes to #7 KULIN ROCK, who ran well against a good field trying winners last time, and while we have another bad GP ML at 6-1 (I’m thinking about 7-2 come post time), he’ll love the expected hot pace, as it will suit his stalking style. The same can be said for #3 RUNAWAY POSSE, who closed strongly to get up against 35k claimers with a big figure and now goes off the claim for a sharp Potts barn. I have no trust in #5 LUNAIRE, but he too will be rolling late, so just maybe today is the day he decides to get there, at a nice price too. Rainbow 6 horses: 7,3,10,5 My TicketRace 6: 3, 4, 6, 8, 9Race 7: 4, 5, 6Race 8: 3Race 9: 1, 4, 8Race 10: 1, 2Race 11: 3, 5, 7, 10Ticket Cost: $72.00

2.14.2018

Love it or hate it, Gulfstream Park’s Rainbow 6 has become a very polarizing bet each and every winter. Hundreds of thousands of dollars per day are bet into the pool once the carryover gets in the quarter-million range, and that’s where we sit now, with the pool now approaching three quarters of a million. With that in mind, let’s take a look at a moderately priced ticket (which I strongly advocate quite often in this space) for Friday’s sequence. R5: 20k MCL for 4up going 5 furlongs (turf) In what looks like a two-horse race, I’ll go with the better price and post and tab #8 DISRUPTOR for the mild surprise over #6 OFFSHORE TRIP. The former may be off form and damaged goods, but he’s only run twice on turf—against MSW foes too—and takes the blinkers off, which could have been the real reason for his undoing last time. Obviously the latter has the form and figures to win this, but we’ve said that before and he’s yet to do so, so he’s a little tough to trust. Rainbow 6 horses (listed in order of preference): 8-6 R6: 16k claimer for 4up going 7 ½ furlongs (turf) One of the deeper spreads, as this could go any number of ways, but #1 WEEZA GONE GRAY could be loose on the lead and drew perfectly for this distance. With a potentially modest pace, both #4 APPA and #5 FAVORITE HEIR could be in trouble late, but the former looked good winning last time and the latter had some traffic in the stretch in his last, so both will give their backers reason for optimism. The post is just brutal for #10 SPORTSCASTER, but he did just win at the level, so you have to include him, though you don’t have to love him. Rainbow 6 horses: 1-4-5-10 R7: 30k claimer for 4up N2L going 7 furlongs I’m a big fan of the first-time gelding angle and #7 GREGORY SUN fits the mold, and his form was pretty solid to begin with, so if he improves, as can happen with the ultimate equipment change, he could surprise. Jane Cibelli is just 1-for-21 off the claim, but she reaches for Irad Ortiz, and #3 VALDOCCO is in good form, so he would be no surprise, and if you like him, then you have to like #6 MIDWAY PLAYA, who was only a length behind that rival and could benefit from that tightener off three-month layoff. Rainbow 6 horses: 7-3-6 R8: 4up Florida-bred AOC going 7 ½ furlongs (turf) There appears to be a lot of speed here, so I’m going to toss ML favorite #6 CHARLIE MOPS, who seems to take all the worst of it in terms of race flow, and side with #2 TWO STEP TIME and #3 SALUTE THE COLONEL, as they both have a stalking gear, and ‘Time will relish the drop into the state-bred ranks while ‘Colonel just missed at the level last time. Rainbow 6 horses: 2-3 R9: 6.25k 4up N3L going 5 ½ furlongs What looks like the most wide open race on the card, I’m going five-deep and using #6 SILVER SHALIS, who had trouble last time but was a good 3rd at the level; #9 UNLEASH HIM, who drew a nice attack post for his style and beat the pick by a length last time; #1 TOO WILD TO REPENT, who was awful on the turf in his first start for Ramirez, but has several solid dirt figures showing that would win this and gets Irad; pace presser #4 ILLUSTRIOUS SON could sit the right kind of trip and looked good winning over N2L foes last time; and #3 NIGHT RYTHM, who closed last to beat his own N2L group last time and may get some pace to rally into. Rainbow 6 horses: 6-9-1-4-3 R10: MSW for 3yo Florida-breds going 7 ½ furlongs (turf) A single at the end is never a bad thing, and it looks like we have one in #3 MARCH TO THE ARCH, who was a fast 5th against open foes on debut and should only improve second-out for Casse. It’s also worth nothing he should be a fraction of that 7/2 ML, as he looks more like 8/5 or so. Rainbow 6 horse: 3 My Rainbow 6 Ticket
Race 5: 6, 8Race 6: 1, 4, 5, 10Race 7: 3, 6, 7Race 8: 2, 3Race 9: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9Race 10: 3Ticket Cost: $48.00