In 2004 there were 254,200 births registered in Australia, resulting in a total fertility rate of 1.77 babies per woman. Until recently, Australia had been experiencing the second of two long periods of fertility decline since 1901 - from 1907 to 1934, and from 1962 to the late-1990s (excluding a plateau from 1966 to 1972). In recent years the total fertility rate has been relatively stable.

For the first decade of the 20th century, the total fertility rate remained at around 3.7 to 4.0 babies per woman, then consistently declined over the next two and a half decades. By 1934, during the Depression, the total fertility rate had fallen to 2.1 babies per woman. It then increased during the second half of the 1930s, as women who had deferred child-bearing in the Depression years began to have children. Fertility increased through World War II and the 1950s, and peaked in 1961 when the total fertility rate reached 3.5 babies per woman (graph 5.21).

After 1961 the total fertility rate fell rapidly, to 2.9 babies per woman in 1966. This fall can be attributed to changing social attitudes, in particular a change in people's perception of desired family size, facilitated by the oral contraceptive pill becoming available. During the 1970s the total fertility rate dropped further, falling to replacement level (2.1 babies per woman) in 1976, below which it has since remained. This fall was more marked than the fall in the early-1960s and has been linked to increasing participation of women in education and the labour force, changing attitudes to family size, lifestyle choices and greater access to contraceptive measures and abortion.

In the late-1970s the total fertility rate began to decline at a slower rate, continuing through the 1980s and 1990s. Over the last six years the total fertility rate has been relatively stable (between 1.73 and 1.77 babies per woman) indicating that the decline in fertility recorded since the 1970s has halted.

According to United Nations projections, the world average total fertility rate for the five-year period 2000-05 is estimated at 2.65 babies per woman, declining from the relatively constant 5.0 babies per woman that existed until the late-1960s and early-1970s. However, total fertility rates for individual countries vary considerably. Many factors can influence a country's fertility rate, such as differences in social and economic development and the prevalence of contraceptive use. In general, developing countries have higher fertility rates than developed countries.

Over the last 50 years fertility declined in most countries. According to the United Nations projections, Singapore and China experienced some of the largest declines in the average total fertility rate - from 6.4 and 6.2 babies per woman respectively in 1950-55 to 1.4 and 1.7 in 2000-05 (graph 5.22). During 2000-05, Macao (SAR of China) recorded one of the lowest average total fertility rates (0.84), followed by Hong Kong (SAR of China) (0.94). Several European countries also had low fertility, including Ukraine (1.12), Spain (1.27), Italy (1.28), Germany (1.32) and the Russian Federation (1.33). Although below the world’s average of 2.65, Australia’s total fertility rate for 2004 of 1.77 babies per woman is comparable to other developed countries.

In contrast, many African countries had high fertility in the period 2000-05 with Niger (7.91) being the highest. In south-east Asia, East Timor (7.79) had one of the world's highest fertility rates and, like Niger, experienced sustained high fertility between the periods 1950-55 and 2000-05 (graph 5.22).

Australian women continue to delay child-bearing. The median age at child-bearing increased from 27.1 years in 1984 to 29.0 years in 1994, then to 30.6 years in 2004. Over the last 20 years there has been a fall in the fertility rate of teenagers, from 23.2 babies per 1,000 teenage females in 1984 to 16.3 in 2004. Conversely, the fertility rate of women aged 40-44 years more than doubled, from 4.3 babies per 1,000 women in 1984 to 10.6 in 2004. However, births to older mothers failed to compensate for the decline in births to younger women, resulting in a decline in total fertility (graph 5.23).

An alternative to the ‘snapshot’ measure provided by the total fertility rate is total issue data (the total number of children ever born alive per woman). Total issue data reveal a decline over time in the average number of children ever born by age of women. While at younger ages the decline in the average number of children may be related to the postponement of child-bearing, the average number of children among women aged 40-44 years also declined. Completed fertility (the average number of births a cohort of females have borne) for women born in 1954 show an average of 2.3 births per woman. Projections show that the cohort of females born in 2004 would have an average of 1.6 births per woman, if current trends were to continue.

Table 5.24 provides summary measures of fertility for the period 1994 to 2004.

5.24 SELECTED SUMMARY MEASURES OF FERTILITY

Registered
births

Crude birth
rate(a)

Total fertility
rate(b)

Exnuptial
births(c)

'000

no.

no.

%

1994

258.1

14.5

1.85

25.6

1995

256.2

14.2

1.83

26.6

1996

253.8

13.9

1.80

27.4

1997

251.8

13.6

1.78

28.1

1998

249.6

13.3

1.76

28.7

1999

248.9

13.1

1.76

29.2

2000

249.6

13.0

1.76

29.2

2001

246.4

12.7

1.73

30.7

2002

251.0

12.8

1.76

31.3

2003

251.2

12.6

1.75

31.6

2004

254.2

12.7

1.77

32.2

(a) Births per 1,000 population.(b) Births per woman.(c) Births to unmarried mothers as a proportion of total births.

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