For Malloy, Foley votes more demographic than geographic

Published 9:56 pm, Saturday, November 1, 2014

The common wisdom, as the 2014 race for governor reaches its climax, is that Republican Tom Foley will clean up in the heavily Republican suburbs, while Democratic Gov. Dannel P. Malloy will win big in the cities.

But is the woman in the vintage Jaguar driving west on East Putnam Avenue in Greenwich a solid bet to vote for Foley, from nearby Khakum Wood? Is the guy driving the landscaper's red pickup willing to give Stamford native Malloy a second four-year term?

While the key to the 2014 gubernatorial race may be who voters are, not where they live, both Malloy and Foley will depend on their bases. But each has made overtures to the other's core supporters.

"I think much of what we see in voting patterns is really more demographic than geographic, except when you talk about cities," said Scott McLean, professor of politics at Quinnipiac University. "Cities are very demographic, too, because of the separation of populations we have in Connecticut."

It's the end of an aggressive, expensive campaign, which became nastier as the race narrowed to a photo finish. The candidates have attacked each other in debates, advertisements, mailings and social media. An unprecedented amount of outside money -- close to $9 million per candidate, over and above the $6.5 million in public financing each received -- has flowed through political action committees supported by the competing parties' governors associations, unions, pro- and anti-gun groups, and out-of-state conservatives.

The new urbanism

Indeed, Malloy will need a big bump from the cities, which he hopes first lady Michelle Obama's appearance Thursday in New Haven will spur and President Barack Obama's event Sunday in Bridgeport will multiply.

Foley, recognizing that the cities helped Malloy pull out a victory in 2010, has attempted to make urban inroads this time around, offering an agenda that would expand tax-exempt enterprise zones, promote in-district school choice and cap the regressive car tax.

"The future of Connecticut is no better than the future of our cities," Foley said Saturday in Bridgeport, during a candidate's forum sponsored by the NAACP.

"Tom's not writing off the cities," said Peter Tesei, Greenwich first selectman. "He's been very smart to recognize that in order for our state to rebound, there has to be a very clear agenda to change the dynamic there. Economic development is one, but clearly life safety is the foundation on how that would be built, followed closely by education. Naturally, I hope people would question the policies used to date, which have clearly not worked. Democrats say they want to protect working-class people, but crimes still exists, drugs, poverty. Parents are a big issue. I don't think one politician has the silver bullet."

There is nothing like the power of incumbency, however. Malloy has traversed the state for months spreading around state bonding money and economic incentives. On Friday in Danbury, the home of Foley's 2010 running mate, Mayor Mark Boughton, Malloy announced a deal to retain industrial gas manufacturer Praxair with a $10 million forgivable loan and other incentives to build a new $65 million facility and create about 120 new jobs over the next five years.

"We've seen an increase in black and Hispanic-owned businesses in the state," Malloy told about 200 in the NAACP event in Bridgeport Saturday. "I firmly believe that Bridgeport is making progress."

A statewide election depends on cumulative vote totals, not the number of towns and cities who vote for one candidate or another.

Foley, in his second attempt at the governor's office, and Malloy, will both depend on turnout among their voter bases, plus the great middle ground of unaffiliated voters, who four years ago gave Malloy the edge.

Of the nearly 1.95 million active voters in Connecticut, 812,986 are unaffiliated, 710,579 are Democrats and 405,795 are Republicans.

Hometown teams

In 2010, Greenwich favored Foley to Malloy by 12,817 to 8,687.

"It's interesting when people say Greenwich is a bastion of Republicans," said Tesei, a Republican.

Despite a conservative reputation, his town is politically balanced, he said.

"That's why I support Tom's challenge that we're not being well-served by one-party rule in the Capitol," he said. "Tom is smart to engage individuals in our cities. The health of our cities will mean the health of our state."

Stamford Mayor David Martin, a Democrat, said Friday if Foley has widened his urban agenda, there's little evidence of it in his city beyond a few campaign mailers.

"I'm not aware of any serious strategy he may have," Martin said in a phone interview. "I'm still trying to figure out how he plans to keep cities and towns whole with state aid, reduce taxes and tackle the state deficit. Like everyone else I have gotten his fliers in the mail and his promises seem inconsistent with his objectives. I get no sense of a major program. It doesn't add up."

Martin predicted a light turnout, but said that Malloy, a Stamford native and former 14-year mayor, will get more than 60 percent of the city's vote.

Martin said the city is becoming increasingly unaffiliated politically, with about 40 percent, along with about 40 percent Democratic and about 20 percent Republican. The city is the second-largest contributor to state taxes, behind Greenwich.

"We are an urban center and offer things like affordable housing that support the economy of the region," he said. "We're more like New Haven, Bridgeport or Hartford. With our heterogeneity this area is served better by a Democratic governor like Dan Malloy. Are we a tale of two cities? No, we are not. More like five or six."

He doubts Foley appreciates the challenges facing the lower Fairfield County economy.

The economy dominates

In debates, TV ads and mailers, Foley has focused on the record tax hikes Malloy and his fellow Democrats in the Legislature used to balance the budget deficit of 2011. Malloy called it "shared sacrifice," including a deal with unionized state employees to accept reduced benefits.

Malloy stresses that while states such as New York and New Jersey shifted state tax burdens onto municipalities in reaction to the recession, Connecticut has not reduced state aid. Malloy says he has invested record amounts of state aid into helping businesses.

One such deal, allowing United Technologies Corp. to use $400 million in accumulated tax incentives in exchange for a multi-year, multibillion-dollar commitment to the state, has become a center of Foley's criticism against "corporate welfare."

Malloy says with 75,000 high-paying jobs at stake, it was crucial to secure a long-term deal with UTC -- its Sikorsky Aircraft division is in Stratford -- to stay when corporate executives in recent years were on record as being critical about remaining in Connecticut.

Voter turnout

Gary L. Rose, chairman of the Department of Government and Politics at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield, said while there is "some truth" to Malloy's and Foley's statements that they don't have particular urban or suburban strategies, the presence of the first lady in New Haven on Thursday and the scheduled presidential visit Sunday underscore the importance of the Democratic city base.

"I believe that the Democrats are banking very heavily on the urban vote to win this thing, and I think that's where most of their resources are at this point," said Rose, the author of books on the state's 2012 U.S. Senate race and the 4th Congressional District.

While only 33.9 percent of eligible Bridgeport voters cast ballots in the 2010 election, they gave 17,973 votes for Malloy and 4,099 for Foley. Hartford had 15,753 for Malloy and 2,043 for Foley in a 39.4-percent turnout. New Haven gave 22,285 votes to Malloy and 3,679 for Foley with 42.8-percent turnout.

"Bridgeport's turnout was low in 2010, but on the other hand it was pretty consistent with cities in mid-term elections," Rose said. "Bridgeport is in line with nation figures. Turnout is going to be lower and we know turnout in the cities is problematic. I am sure Tom Foley is hoping for lower voter turnout. If the turnout's there, Malloy wins. If it's low, Foley wins. I think Obama could be the tipping point."