On Friday, Secretary of State John Kerry said the U.S. would make its own decisions and that any U.S. action would be limited. In a recent note, Birinyi Associates showed that stocks on average gain back losses following “limited” airstrikes, but mission creep and unsecured stockpiles of chemical weapons in Syria are always possibilities that could wreak havoc in markets. Here’s how stocks performed during major airstrikes since 1991 where the U.S. played a part

When Iraq’s Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in August of 1990, stocks skidded, with the S&P 500 Index
SPX, -0.88%
falling 16% and oil prices jumping nearly 70% by mid-October. Stocks recovered about 7% as coalition forces built up in the Middle East as “Desert Shield.” When “Desert Shield” became “Desert Storm” with airstrikes beginning on Jan. 17, 1991, the S&P 500 had a one-day jump of 3.7%, and oil prices had retreated to 12% below their pre-Kuwait invasion levels. With the introduction of ground forces on Feb. 24 and the liberation of Kuwait on Feb. 28, the S&P 500 had gained 16% following the initial airstrikes.

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2. June 26-27, 1993: Iraq

Over the weekend of June 26-27, 1993, President Bill Clinton fired off 24 cruise missiles on Baghdad in retaliation for an assassination plot against former President George H. W. Bush as he visited Kuwait City earlier that year. The S&P 500 jumped 1% that Monday but trailed off for a 0.4% loss on the week. Also, oil prices, which received a 0.3% bump on the first trading day after the airstrike, finished the week down 4.7%.

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3. August 30, 1995: NATO airstrikes in Bosnia and Herzegovina

After nearly three years of a no-fly zone above Bosnian airspace, resulting in a few minor airstrikes and some air-to-air combat, continued violence by Serbs prompted NATO to authorize a massive airstrike on Aug. 30, 1995, involving about 400 aircraft against more than 300 Bosnian Serb targets. The airstrikes lasted until Sept. 14 with the S&P 500 gaining more than 4% over that period.

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4. Sept. 3, 1996: Iraq

The U.S. launched more than 40 cruise missiles at Iraqi air defense facilities in the southern no-fly zone after the targeting of enforcement aircraft. It also coincided with Saddam Hussein’s military offensive against Iraqi Kurds in the north. The S&P 500 was relatively quiet, gaining a fraction on the week. Oil prices, however, jumped 5.2% on the day of the strike and finished up 7.2% on the week.

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5. Aug. 20, 1998: Sudan, Afghanistan

Following the Aug. 7 bombings of U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya, President Clinton ordered cruise missile strikes on a pharmaceuticals factory in Sudan on the belief chemical weapons were being manufactured there, and on four terrorist training camps in Afghanistan. The strike against the Al-Shifa pharmaceuticals factory became controversial as the evidence of chemical weapons proved to be shaky. Following the airstrike, the S&P 500 shed 13% by the end of the month.

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6. Dec. 16-19, 1998: Iraq

The U.S. and the U.K. launched four days of cruise missile strikes against Iraq in order to degrade the country’s ability to manufacture weapons of mass destruction given the country’s non-compliance with weapons inspectors. From beginning to end, the S&P 500 ended up just under 3.5%.

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7. March 24-June 10, 1999: NATO airstrikes on Yugoslavia

NATO airstrikes in 1999 was the organization’s second outing in the Balkans, prompted by Yugoslavian oppression of Kosovo Albanians. Over the course of the 78-day campaign, stocks fluctuated but the S&P 500 still ended up 3.2%.

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8. March 20, 2003: Shock & Awe in Iraq

From President George W. Bush’s State of the Union Address in late January, the S&P 500 fell 7% by early March as the U.S. readied for war and the existence of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction was debated. Then, the S&P 500 turned around with a nearly 12% run-up that peaked the day after the first wave of airstrikes against Iraq, what was known as “shock and awe.” After the index initially tapered off, the S&P 500 climbed another 7% by the time of Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” speech on May 1.

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9. March 19, 2011: Libya

Most recently, the U.S. participated in a coalition to help oust Moammar Gadhafi’s regime as the country slid into civil war. Leading up to the eventual airstrikes, the S&P 500 slid about 2% over the first half of March. From the time when the strikes started to when full command was placed under NATO authority, the S&P 500 had climbed nearly 4%.

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