Nairobi, Kenya, October 21, 2005 (The Associated Press) – With too many weapons, too little food and three ‎factions vying for control, Somalia's anarchy is fast overwhelming its new government even before it can ‎establish itself in the country.‎
The competition for power, which threatens to trigger another civil war, could combine with a potential ‎humanitarian crisis for a repeat of the disaster that followed the collapse of Somalia's last regime in 1991. A ‎massive UN operation was mounted then to help the starving, but failed to set up a viable government in the ‎Horn of Africa nation.‎
Experts agree that another civil war could create an opportunity for Islamic extremists to take power.‎
Already, at least one cell of the international terrorist group al-Qaeda is believed to have established itself in ‎the Horn of Africa country. Homegrown Islamist militias move freely in some parts of Mogadishu, the capital, ‎shutting down bars and destroying shops that reproduce or sell pirated DVDs and music cassettes.‎
The United States has long feared that Islamic militants may take advantage of the clan-fuelled anarchy in ‎Somalia to establish new bases after the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan.‎
Heightened tensions in the capital come as poor rainfall, mass displacement of farmers due to fighting and ‎extensive environmental destruction have set the stage for widespread hunger.‎
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation's Food Security Analysis Unit called in its October ‎report for contingency planning for the possibility of widespread humanitarian relief needs in southern ‎Somalia.‎
‎"Civil insecurity and unrest continues to be one of the main factors contributing to food and livelihood ‎insecurity throughout the region," the report added.‎
Most Somalis already depend on some form of food hand-out to survive. Many live in wretched camps after ‎clan fighting destroyed their homes. A local crop failure, which is feared, could increase their dependency on ‎foreign food aid, which is already tenuous given the current political situation.‎
The year-old transitional federal government, intended to bring peace and the first central government the ‎country has seen in 14 years, has split in two. The secular president and prime minister are located in the ‎small town of Jowhar, while the warlords of Mogadishu, some of whom are also Cabinet ministers, have ‎stopped cooperating until they get some concessions from the president.‎
Forming a third force are Muslim fundamentalists who have set up an Islamic court system with militias to ‎enforce the judge's rulings. They want an Islamic government, or else, a key leader has told The Associated ‎Press.‎
All three sides in Somalia have received large shipments of arms -- often from neighbouring countries hoping ‎to gain influence with Somalia's competing clans -- setting the stage for renewed war, according to a recent ‎UN report.‎
The UN Monitoring Group on Somalia reported to the Security Council that there was a "severely elevated ‎threat of widespread violence in central and southern Somalia".‎
Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi has been working hard to make his government viable since he was sworn ‎in last year. The product of the 14th peace process in 15 years, his government originally included all of the ‎key warlords and received a great deal of international backing.‎
‎"We are trying to calm the militias, but it is not an easy task to restore security and stability in the country," ‎Gedi said in an interview in neighbouring Kenya.‎
He dismissed the schism within his Cabinet, pointing out that out of 42 members, only five were in ‎Mogadishu, refusing to cooperate with him.‎
‎"It is not as bad as people are saying," he said.‎
But it is bad enough to split the international community.‎
Diplomats can't agree on whether they should back Gedi and President Abdulahi Yusuf now, or instead wait ‎to see if the Mogadishu warlords can be coaxed back into the peace process, officials familiar with ongoing ‎discussions said.‎
While the four key militia leaders in Mogadishu control the only city in the country and most of Somalia's ‎economy, the only thing they seem to have in common is a hatred for Yusuf, and what they say are his ‎dictatorial inclinations. While reconciliation efforts are under way, few observers hold out any hope they will ‎succeed.‎
Waiting in the wings are Somalia's fundamentalist Muslims, some of whom have been listed by the US State ‎Department as al-Qaeda collaborators. The most prominent is Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys.‎
While Aweys will not address allegations he's had contacts with al-Qaeda, he has made no secret of his ‎opposition to Yusuf, his readiness to declare a jihad should foreign peacekeepers enter Somalia, or his plans ‎to establish an Islamic government.‎
Since none of the three factions are believed to have sufficient firepower to defeat the other, it is unclear how ‎long the current status quo can last, but the threat of war hangs over relief workers who will try to provide ‎aid to the hungry in the months to come. ‎