John Kasich is the world’s worst economist

Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that Governor John Kasich is still talking about phasing out Ohio’s income tax, which accounts for nearly half of the State’s general revenue funds. He basically said that once he believes the State reaches a structural balance, he’s going to start throwing it out of balance as he phases out the income tax—a tax that has already been cut 24% over the past four years. Kasich continues to maintain that Ohio must get rid of its income tax if it hopes to compete with the non-income tax states in job creation.

Kasich’s economic prescription for Ohio seems to be that Ohio’s unemployment is the direct result of three things:

The existence of a progressive income tax structure that other States don’t have;

Seriously, we don’t know why. Florida has nice beaches, but we’re pretty sure God just put them there so he could surround the State with water in order to contain the crazies south of the panhandle there from leaving. We’re talking about a State known for two things: blow and wrestling alligators, which I cannot believe is not somehow inter-related.

In an interview during the campaign, Kasich spouted off four States that he said Ohio should model. Four States that he said were the fastest job growth States in the nation: Florida, Texas, Tennessee, and Nevada. Unfortunately for Kasich, almost immediately after he gave this interview, Nevada overtook Michigan for the State with the highest unemployment rate in the nation.

But that was back in June 2010. How is Ohio stacking up to the no-income tax/Right to Work States ten months later?

There are nine States that have no personal income tax: Alaska, New Hampshire, Tennessee, Florida, South Dakota, Washington, Nevada Texas, and Wyoming. Of those, four have an unemployment rate higher than Ohio’s. In fact, two are in the top three States for high unemployment and have been for about a year now. When nearly a third of a group leads the nation in the thing you’re trying to combat and half are doing worse than you are doing, perhaps that’s not a group whose economy you really want to imitate.

2. “Right to Work” laws don’t mean you don’t have the “right” to be unemployed, apparently

We keep hearing about how we need to lower the costs of government, get rid of prevailing wage, so Ohio can compete with “Right to Work” states in the South in job creation.

And, again, here’s a map of the States with unemployment rate’s higher than Ohio’s:

Again, eleven out of the twenty-two Right-to-Work States have a higher unemployment rates than Ohio a year and half after the recession officially ended. John Kasich likes to think about Ohioans are jealous of Georgia for taking NCR from us. What he leaves out that Georgia (10%) would gladly trade NCR back for Ohio’s unemployment rate (8.9%). Again, when half of the group you want to emulate is doing worse than you on the thing you say you’re trying to fix, you have to question your thinking.

Tennessee, Florida, and Nevada are among the five States that have no income tax and no collective bargaining. And Ohio’s outdoing them in spades.

First, Ohio ranks 17th in the nation in attracting private venture capital. So, it’s not like we’re doing horrible on the front. Second, how perverted does conservative ideology get that you conclude that the private sector should compete with the public sector in running prisons and yet the public sector needs to compete with the private sector in the venture capital business? Kasich apparently believes the free market would do better running prisons than it does in the venture capital business. Why is that?

Third, and most importantly, venture capital investments is no factor in job creation over the long term. Again, here’s the chart of the top ten States in terms of venture capital, according to the Columbus Dispatchciting capital venture industry experts:

Again, nearly half of the top ten States in venture capital have higher unemployment than Ohio’s. In fact, the State that receives the most venture than any other state, nearly five times more than any other States, has the second highest unemployment rate in the nation. By adopting a venture capital model, Kasich is so narrowing the State’s economic development focus that entire sectors of the economy will be omitted from the State’s economic development philosophy.

Because Kasich has only a bachelor’s degree in political science, perhaps he should study the history of venture capitalism first to understand the narrow function such firms actually serve in the economy. Venture capital exists to fill the void traditional banking lending and State economic development agencies do not fill: start-ups that need high amounts of capital, have a potentially profitable, innovative product, but one whose value is more tied to intangible value like intellectual property than tangible value like the steel made in producing cars, for example. That’s why venture capital is heavily involved in computer software, IT businesses, and biotech.

Venture capital also doesn’t give a whit about job creation/retention or job creation/retention within a specified geographical area. That’s why for all the venture capital invested even in areas like Silicon Valley, we’ve seen no real job gains since the number of jobs there today than there were in the early 1990s. They’re interested in short-term profit taking. That’s it. If they cannot turn a profit in cashing out their equity within three to seven years, then they aren’t interested in investing in that company or sector. As a result, it’s generally considered that venture capital firms will invest in roughly one quarter of a percent (.25%) of the opportunities presented to it.

To a venture capital firm, there is no value in spending money to “raid” another State to bring its jobs to Ohio. Kasich once spoke of JobsOhio as making the State more nimble so it can act like the “Rhodes Raiders” of lore. But the reality is that JobsOhio cannot both be a venture capital firm and a “Rhodes Raider.” (It also ignores that “Rhodes Raiders” had few actual successes, and that Rhodes actually has the worst record for unemployment of any Ohio Governor since the Depression.)

John Kasich has to be the worst economist in the country. Yes, I’m aware he worked on Wall Street, but even his supporters who worked with him acknowledged he was more of a celebrity “rainmaker” who made sales than a serious economist or investment banker who understood complicated economic terms. His time at Lehman’s was, in reality, nothing more than a glorified sales job. He really has no real economic background to speak of, and it shows.

Time and time again, he’s picked policy cures that have already been adopted in States that are still doing substantially worse than Ohio. This isn’t a matter of a difference of opinion or a difference over political ideology. This is about objective facts. What John Kasich is pushing us towards is to model ourselves off the very States that are doing the worst economically right now.

I’ve paid taxes in this state all of my working life (which seems like a million years), and while I don’t smile about it, I know that to have the services I want, it is the cost of living. Kasich is not going to improve the quality of life in Ohio by cutting taxes. In fact, we are only going to sink farther into depression. We will pay one-way or another, and the ones who enjoy more of the benefits of a free society should pay their fair share. (Yes, that means the upper 2%)

“Right to work” is a misleading term; it should be called “Right to bully employees by firing them” laws. It has nothing to do with the rights of workers in a free society, and everything to do with subverting workers rights.

Venture capitalist aren’t in business to give people jobs, they prefer to use machines instead of people, Machines don’t get to vote, don’t ask for raises, never take a lunch or restroom break, what more could you ask for?

I can hardly wait for a chance to recall Kasich and his thugs!

Victoria

He is doing a version of MiltonFriedman’s Chicago School economics which has absolutely nothing to do with creating jobs for any one and everything with allowing capitalists to suck the life out of an economy and get rich while others starve. They want to create a government that is nothing more than a pass though for taxes paid by the middle class to go to enrich contractors. I have been reading about the Chicago School and he no longer seems nuts. Everything he does is right out of the neocon play book. Its really scary.

Anonymous

Texas has a similar situation with natural gas. They tax it heavily and that makes up a significant part of their budget which allows them to have no income tax. I don’t see Ohio ever having a significant tourist industry or being able to frack our way into zero income tax. Nevada, of course, has gambling and prostitution. We are struggling just to bring in the gambling, forget about the prostitution because the conservatives in Ohio prefer their hookers unregulated and subject to frequent beatings at the hand of their overseers…ya know, “right to work”.

But I digress. The real point here is that there are much more powerful macroeconomic trends, global trends and such, that determine the economic state of a given region of our country. Having zero tax or a progressive tax has precious little to do with it, although it does give state politicians the ability to play their dirty little ‘race to the bottom’ game. Some people who receive good educations in other states may choose to go to Texas or Florida for zero state income tax. You see, we pay to educate them while Texas grossly underfunds their own educational system – in fact I believe they are dead last in academic achievement. Texas in turn is better positioned to take talent away after we did all the work developing it. Same situation with Black Water and the military. These things are considered great progress in the modern conservative movement.

anon

I don’t really think the evidence presented in this article supports the conclusions it draws.

The evidence is that for each of Kasich’s proposed plans, half of the states that have adopted that plan are doing better than Ohio in unemployment, and half are doing worse, which suggests (if anything) that the plans are unemployment-neutral.

The conclusion is that they’re all terrible ideas, and that doesn’t really make sense given the actual facts contained in the articles.

Now, I think they’re pretty terrible ideas – at least Right to Work and no income tax (I don’t have a strong opinion on venture capital), but not for the reasons presented here. I doubt this would have convinced me if I didn’t already, though.

I’d like to see an article that presents some reasons why they’re bad, rather than reasons why they’re not awesome.

Anonymous

Consider, then this passage that talks about the States that have more than one of the attributes Kasich seeks to have Ohio emulate:

“Tennessee, Florida, and Nevada are among the five States that have no income tax and no collective bargaining. And Ohio’s outdoing them in spades.”

Among the States that have both no income tax and “right to work” laws (of which there are only five in the nation), Ohio is outbeating three out of five… and heavily.

The point is that the Southeast, which Kasich talks often as a region that is doing better than Ohio, is actually doing much worse. And that the policies Kasich is promoting under the argument that States with them are doing better economically, are not doing any better in Ohio. In fact half are doing much worse than Ohio, and the rest aren’t doing much better.

I don’t think the term is “unemployment-neutral.” After all, two of the top three States in unemployment have both no income tax and are a right-to-work laws. At best, you can argue there’s no corrolation between those policies and low unemployment. At worst, you can argue there’s a negative corrolation.

However, Kasich is arguing that there’s a positive corrolation… a proposition no data really exists to support.

Anonymous

Yes, Kasich’s highest degree earned (or attended) is a B.A. in Political Science from The Ohio State University.