Ashcroft Election Tour

The final round of my general election focus groups comes from three Labour seats in Wales: Cardiff South & Penarth, Alyn & Deeside, and Newport West, with participants who voted Labour or UKIP in 2015. As they looked back on the campaign, what had made an impression? “It’s mostly the gaffes that stand out…The lady for Labour, when she completely messed up.” “Diane Abbott.” “That’s the one. That sticks out for me.” “The pensioners getting screwed.” “Corbyn today, not knowing about childcare, and Theresa May launching her manifesto that within twelve hours had been turned round.” Few had felt inspired: “It strikes me there’s no real vision, how to take the next step. To be honest, it’s a little bit of a mess.”

What about the last few days? “There was a lot about her not going to the debate yesterday. And that tends to overshadow the actual debate.” Does that matter? “Yes!” “She called the snap election, and can’t be bothered turning up to it (more…)

This week’s general election focus group report comes from two Scottish seats which fell to the SNP in 2015 but could be competitive on 8 June: Edinburgh South West, and Aberdeen South. In each seat we spoke to two types of people: those who voted no to Scottish independence in 2014, Labour or Liberal Democrat in 2015, and who were undecided what to do this time round; and those who voted SNP at the last general election and to leave the EU in last year’s referendum.

With this latter group, we began by asking how they arrived at what some might see as a contradictory set of opinions. For a few, it had been a cunning ruse that seemed to have backfired: “I mistakenly thought it was a tactical vote that if we vote to leave it would end up triggering Scottish independence (more…)

Former Labour, Lib Dem and SNP voters in Edinburgh South West and Aberdeen South talk about independence, the Scottish government’s record, Brexit, the manifestos, why they might switch parties, and what the leaders would do if they had proper jobs.

Our third week of general election focus groups took place in three Labour-held seats in the north of England: Wakefield, Huddersfield and Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland. Only a couple of participants had so far seen any evidence of street campaigning: “The Labour Party were outside my son’s school two weeks ago, with leaflets to all parents. I was surprised really. I thought, time and place. I didn’t think it was appropriate.” The others, however, were by no means insulated from the campaign. “On Facebook it’s rife”. Most of the political messages these groups had seen were in support of Labour, and evidently designed to reinvigorate what had once been the party’s base. What kind of thing had they seen? “She’s on about bringing back fox hunting. I mean, what’s that? Tally-ho and running up and down and ripping foxes to pieces for the elite (more…)

This week my general election focus groups took place in three seats Labour are defending from the Conservatives in the West Midlands: Wolverhampton South West, Birmingham Northfields and Dudley North. We spoke to people who had voted Labour in 2015 – most of whom had never voted anything but Labour in a national election – but who now said they were undecided what to do on 8 June.

The Tories enjoyed a boost in the region last week when Andy Street was elected the first West Midlands Mayor. The majority in our groups had not voted (turnout was a mere 27 per cent) but most of those who did backed the winner. They said the candidates’ qualities had mattered more in the decision than party labels: “I voted for the John Lewis guy (more…)

Undecided previous Labour voters in the West Midlands discuss Labour’s campaign launch, tax pledges, why Brexit makes this election different, the Prime Ministerial appearance on The One Show, and the party leaders as cartoon characters.

If you want to know what’s really happening in an election, ask the voters. As in 2015, and at the referendum, my polling team will conduct focus groups around the country to hear what real people make of the campaigns, parties, leaders and issues, and each week I will report what they have to say. And you don’t have to take my word for it – you can listen for yourself on the weekly Ashcroft Election Tour podcast, the inaugural edition of which is also out today.

We begin our tour in London, in three seats that illustrate the complicated dynamics of this election: Bermondsey & Old Southwark, which the Liberal Democrats are aiming to take back from Labour; Twickenham, now a Tory seat which is under threat from the Lib Dems; and Brentford & Isleworth which, if Labour lose it to the Conservatives, will have changed hands three elections running.

Snap!

By no means everyone welcomed the prospect of such an early return to the polling station. “I think it’s a bit cheeky (more…)

Every week until the general election, the Lord Ashcroft Polls team will visit constituencies around Britain to find out what people from all walks of life think about the parties, the leaders and the issues as they approach their decision on 8 June.

This week we hear from undecided voters in Brentford & Isleworth, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, and Twickenham.

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