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It's not going to be easy filling Monique Smith's shoes as the stand-in Liberal candidate for Nipissing in the provincial election next fall.

But her replacement -- whether a reluctant sacrifice or surefire contender -- might actually give local Grits a better chance of retaining the riding.

Smith surprised many when she announced last week she would not seek a third term.

The Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs and Liberal House Leader is in her mid-40s and was on an upward path within her party.

Her decision to step aside 10 months before the Writ drops gives local Grits plenty of time to beat the bushes, although it's not an easy task. The Liberal Government grip on power is straining against tough financial realities and it's feeling the impact of the resulting backlash from tax-weary constituents.

Former Liberal deputy premier George Smitherman, as an example, suffered a back-alley beating in the Toronto mayoral race.

Nipissing's first female MPP and first Liberal cabinet minister was going to have a tough time three-peating. East Ferris Mayor Bill Vrebosch donned the Conservative flag and came within 400 votes of beating her in 2007 -- not too shabby considering his party leader John Tory was doing everything in his power to scare votes away.

And if North Bay Mayor Vic Fedeli, who decided not to seek a third term on the fifth floor at City Hall, gets the Conservative nod as speculated, the Liberals were in for another good fight.

Fedeli has made friends and enemies during his seven years at the city helm, his slick marketing skills and a

determined focus on the goals in his 2020 Vision proved bittersweet.

Smith's sometimes prickly personality, however, and the policies set out by her government -- combined with the impact of global economic wrinkles -- eroded much of her peripheral support.

And no amount of ribbon-cutting and cheque presentations could buy back the anti-Tory sentiment that swept Smith and Dalton McGuinty to office in 2003.

I'm not even sure McGuinty wants to run again with so many dark clouds on the horizon.

So, who might seek the local Liberal nomination and who might give them a chance at retaining the riding?

And is Fedeli really a lock to win the Tory nomination, and if so, would he make a good MPP for Nipissing?

First and foremost, you can't count Vrebosch out, there's no match when it comes to stumping across the riding. While I have never been a big supporter of elected municipal officials stepping down midterm for a run at higher office, he doesn't follow that line of thinking.

North Bay mayor-elect Al McDonald, who lost the Nipissing seat to Smith as her Liberals ousted the Ernie Eves Conservatives, has already said he will complete his four-year term.

And while re-elected Coun. Judy Koziol competed against Vrebosch for the 2007 nomination, I doubt she'd do it again if Fedeli was the competition.

There are several current and former North Bay councillors who have shown a willingness to run under the Liberal banner provincially.

Re-elected councillor Mac Bain campaigned for the Grit nomination against Smith and he's been a busy city representative on regional and district bodies.

Bain might not have the same flair or voting clout as Fedeli, yet he could serve as an underdog alternative.

Re-elected Coun. Chris Mayne appears to have more momentum based on the vote count last month, although he's still a little green for a high level debate.

Vrebosch's daughter, reelected Coun. Tanya Vrebosch-Merry, appears to lean more to the Liberal side of things and certainly has achieved political fame this fall by vaulting to chairmanship and third place after finishing 11th on the 2006 ballot.

More likely yielding to ambitious Liberal thoughts is first-time councillor Sean Lawlor who finished a hair shy of the top spot.

An opportunity to take on Fedeli might be too tempting to skip, considering his father, Stan Lawlor, a former North Bay mayor, was trounced by the marketing guru in the 2006 mayoral contest.

Other names being bandied about include two district leaders, re-elected Mattawa Mayor Dean Backer and Callander Mayor Hec Lavigne, both of which have the skills to make the 2011 debates worth attending.

Unless, of course, veteran councillor-elect George Maroosis reneges on his commitment to finish his term so he can wave the Grit flag one more time.

Dave Dale's column appears Thursday and Saturday. He can be contacted at ddale@nugget.ca