Long way home

It was only the first step in the legislative process to reserve a chunk of seats for women in Parliament and assemblies, but for the Congress and particularly its President Sonia Gandhi, it was a giant leap for womankind. After 14 years of hedging and huffing, the historic, if controversial, Constitution (108th Amendment) Bill that grants 33 per cent reservation to women was passed by the Rajya Sabha on March 9.

Sonia's single-minded pursuit saw the bill clear the Rajya Sabha.

What is equally path-breaking is the cross-party support the bill drew, with the BJP and the Left joining hands with the UPA to support it. A euphoric Sonia, who had been watching the proceedings live on TV with her fingers crossed, broke from protocol, stepped into media glare and said that she was "particularly happy". She has reason to celebrate. She single-handedly brought the Left and Right together to deliver gender empowerment and, more importantly, a key component of the Congress manifesto.

Of course, the Congress has in the bargain lost the support of some of its secular allies. RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav and Samajwadi Party President Mulayam Singh Yadav have both announced that they will withdraw "outside support" of their 26 MPs to the UPA. More serious is the threat from the mercurial Mamata Banerjee who suddenly decided to boycott the bill at the last minute.

The road ahead

After the Rajya Sabha, the Government will need a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha to pass the bill.

Of the 28 assemblies, at least 15 need to approve the bill. The Congress, BJP and the Left together rule in 18 states.

It will then be sent to the President for approval.

181 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats and 1,370 out of 4,109 Assembly seats will then have to be identified for reservation.

To pass the bill in the Lok Sabha, the Congress will need the support of the Trinamool Congress's 20 MPs. However, what the Congress has lost in numbers it has gained in what Sonia refers to as "the larger perspective". Until now, this was a Government that was tall on promise but short on delivery.'

However, by doggedly pursuing the Women's Reservation Bill against all odds, the Congress has achieved the moral high ground on governance. As Jayanthi Natarajan stated in the Rajya Sabha, this was due to "Sonia Gandhi's personal determination".

When the bill first came up for discussion on March 8, some Congress MPs were worried that by antagonising both Mulayam and Lalu they would lose their support in Parliament on other bills. Of immediate importance is the finance bill.

Mulayam and Lalu joined hands against the bill.

With the BJP threatening to bring cut motions on the petro price hike, Congress floor managers are worried that they have some hard negotiating in store. Without the support from the cowbelt parties, the UPA is in a minority in the Rajya Sabha and has only a wafer-thin majority in the Lok Sabha. And everyone remembers the fall of a government in 1998 by just one vote.The PMO is particularly worried about its pet Nuclear Liability Bill that is tipped to be introduced in the Lok Sabha this session.

By doggedly pursuing the reservation bill against all odds, the Congress has achieved the moral high ground.

However, equally persuasive is the argument that no one--least of all Banerjee--would like the Government to fall just yet; not with the Bihar and West Bengal elections around the corner. Neither would she let her own Railway budget be voted out. Also the BJP, which has just begun the process of getting its house in order after its debacle in the last elections, is not yet ready to face the electorate.

After first threatening to bring a no-confidence motion against the UPA, both Mulayam and Lalu soon did a turnaround, perhaps all too aware of the electoral shortfall in their numbers.

Najma Heptullah, Brinda Karat and Sushma Swaraj exult.

The credit claim game too has begun among the Congress, the Left and the BJP since it is highly unlikely that the three will share the same plank again in the near future. This session has seen some of the unlikeliest of political bedfellows coming together as earlier the BJP had teamed up with the RJD, Samajwadi Party and the Left against the Congress on the price rise. But there is little doubt that while the Left and the BJP got their share of photo-ops, it is the Congress that will walk away with the electoral mind-space.

For those worried about losing the minority vote by not giving in to the Yadavs' demands, Sonia points out, "Who prevents them from giving tickets to OBCS or Muslim women?" In the end it was a terse missive from Sonia that left the Congress with no option but to push the bill through, and without taking up the cowbelt compromise offer of watering it down to 20 per cent.

While BJP and the Left had their share of photo-ops, it's the Congress that will walk away with the electoral mindspace.

The first historic step has been taken. More than just empowering the women, the UPA seems to have empowered itself with a new credo--that it is a Government that delivers. As for women's reservation in the elected bodies, it is a first step in a journey fraught with uncertainty.

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