A bit of a narrative seems developing about the rise of UKIP which is said to hurting Labour more than the Tories. This is based on studies showing that white, working class men who finished their education at secondary school are being disproportionately attracted to Farage’s party.

That might indeed be true but were these Labour supporters in the first place?

The chart above, from the Populus/FT aggregate data for February, shows computations that I’ve and as can be seen the Tories have by quite a distance been the party that has been most hurt by UKIP. Second come the LDs and Labour is third place.

Because the Tories have been the biggest sufferers they stand to be the biggest gainers is the purples go off the boil.