Stephanie Herseth Sandlin says she is not a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014, but she will keep her political options open. / Elisha Page / Argus Leader

Rick Weiland

100 Eyes on South Dakota Politics

100 EYES: Watch a replay of Monday’s “100 Eyes” and see a special edition at 3 p.m. of “100 Eyes on South Dakota Politics” about Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s decision not to run for the U.S. Senate in 2014 at ArgusLeader.com/politics.

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Political observers and Democratic insiders alike said they were surprised by former congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s decision not to run for office again next year.

Herseth Sandlin opted not to seek the open U.S. Senate seat, an office she was highly recruited for by national Democrats. She also passed on a run for governor or her old U.S. House seat and instead will spend the coming years with her family and at her job as general counsel for Raven Industries in Sioux Falls.

“I thought she was going to be a candidate,” said Ben Nesselhuf, chairman of the South Dakota Democratic Party. “At the end of the day, it comes down to the fact that she’s got a young child, and that makes all the difference in the world to her.”

In a statement posted on her Facebook page, Herseth Sandlin said she wanted to spend “more quality time with family and friends” and work at her “highly rewarding” job at Raven.

Accompanying the note was a photo of her son, Zachary, who is starting kindergarten next year.

Even Herseth Sandlin’s allies said the decision was unexpected.

“She had a strong interest in the race and felt very confident about the polling data,” said Jason Frerichs, the Democratic leader in the state Senate, who spoke with the former congresswoman several times in recent months. Frerichs said Herseth Sandlin got “upward of 75 percent” of the way to running for Senate or governor.

Now Rick Weiland, a former aide to Sen. Tom Daschle and two-time House candidate, is the only Democrat in the race. Former Gov. Mike Rounds is the only Republican running so far.

Challenge to Rounds

But Rounds has said he expects to face a conservative challenge, and some activist groups are actively exploring other candidates. Meanwhile, Nesselhuf predicted Weiland might not be the only Democrat to run for the Senate.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if other candidates who’ve been looking at it now want to get in,” Nesselhuf said. “At the end of the day, I think there’s a number of Democrats who would love to be the Democratic nominee against Mike Rounds. If I wasn’t the chair of the party, I’d be considering challenging him.”

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The vehemence with which some Democratic activists criticized Herseth Sandlin after she acknowledged interest in the Senate race might have deterred her, said Jon Schaff, a political science professor at Northern State University.

“The reaction from a certain segment of the Democratic Party was swift and it was negative. Maybe she took that to heart, that she knew that there was a large percentage of the Democratic Party that didn’t want her,” Schaff said. “Could she have won a primary? Probably. But it would have been bruising.”

Frerichs wasn’t so sure.

“She maybe felt a little bit miffed ... but I doubt she took it very seriously,” he said.

Other Democrats

Weiland himself surprised many observers when he entered the race last week. He’d been overlooked in speculation about whether Herseth Sandlin, U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson or both would seek the Democratic Senate nomination.

National Democrats urged Herseth Sandlin to run, while a group of liberal activists started a movement to draft Johnson into the race. But when Weiland entered, he and other Johnson allies said the U.S. attorney was not planning on running.

“I don’t think this is how Democratic strategists drew it up,” said Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor at the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. “The problem looked like the potential for a primary. Now they’re dealing with getting neither of the initial candidates that were being talked about.”

Johnson could change his mind and re-enter the race, though Gonzales wrote it could be “a messier process” than it would have been had he entered the race sooner.

With Herseth Sandlin out, the biggest question mark remains Rep. Kristi Noem. Noem, a second-term congresswoman, has refused to rule out a run for Senate. She has said she’ll make a decision this summer.

“If (Noem) moves, we’ll see who reconsiders or who gets into the race to replace her,” Gonzales said. “I think she is the next domino to fall.”