Hurricane Florence Is Going to Slow Down. That’s Not Good.

With wind speeds that have approached 140 miles per hour, Hurricane Florence isn’t exactly slow. But forecasters don’t expect the storm to blow through quickly once it reaches land.

Instead, they think it will stall, much as Hurricane Harvey did over Houston last year. That is part of the reason Florence is expected to be so dangerous.

Unfortunately, Florence and Harvey are not alone. Tropical cyclones, which include hurricanes, have grown more sluggish since the mid-20th century, researchers say.

To analyze the changes in translation speeds, James Kossin, a climate scientist with the National Centers for Environmental Information at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, tapped into a global data set on past tropical storms. The data included estimates of the latitude and longitude of each named storm’s center at six-hour intervals.

In the last 16 years, most of the damages caused by catastrophes like wildfires and hurricanes have been concentrated in just a few areas.

There is also the question of what is causing the slowdown, which the study did not answer directly. But broader evidence suggests that climate change is playing a role.

Belts of wind known as steering winds are responsible for moving hurricanes along their paths. “Hurricanes are carried passively by the winds that they’re sitting in,” Dr. Kossin said. “It’s not quite like a cork in a stream, but not too different, either.”

The steering winds draw power from the temperature differences between the tropics and the poles. But because of climate change, that temperature difference is declining, weakening the winds. The slower steering winds move hurricanes more slowly.

That is what is expected to happen with Florence, said Jeff Masters, director of meteorology at the forecasting service Weather Underground. “It’s going to come roaring into the coast Thursday night or Friday morning, penetrate inland maybe only a few tens of miles, and then meander for several days erratically because the steering currents are going to collapse,” he said.

“A good part of its circulation will be over water, which means it’s going to continue sucking up a lot of moisture from the ocean and dumping it as heavy rain inland,” Dr. Masters said.

ee since 1538. New research unspooled 60,000 years of its history with an eye on what it will do in the future.</p><p>Finally, the volcano enters a pre-caldera phase. Minor eruptions become infrequent, and magma accumulates in the subterranean reservoir. As it pools, the magma evolves into a water-rich, gassy form, and the most buoyant, bubble-rich patches gather at the top. This magma buildup may eventually culminate in another major eruption, and the cycle would begin anew.</p><p>But Dr. Forni found that the chemistry of the Monte Nuovo eruption in 1538 is similar to that seen in the deeper past, when the volcano slowly built to caldera-forming blasts. The presence of two calderas suggests that Campi Flegrei has probably completed at least one cycle, and if this pattern is indeed real, then the chemistry hints that “we are potentially at the start of a new cycle,” Dr. Forni said.</p><p>But, she said, predicting when a major eruption will occur is beyond the current ability of science: “The best we can do for now is to see how the system behaved in the past.”</p><p>The study’s use of geochemistry to understand long-term magmatic evolution, Dr. Kilburn said, “may help to improve our understanding of large calderas worldwide.”</p>

tead, researchers led by Olivier Sulpis, a graduate student at McGill University in Montreal, simulated seafloor conditions in a laboratory. The simulations showed that the mineral, a form of calcium carbonate known as calcite, is being replaced by murky brown sediments.</p><p>But with cars and factories spewing so much carbon dioxide spewing into the atmosphere, the scientists say, the calcite can't keep up. As a result, the oceans are becoming more acidic.</p><p>Not everyone is particularly worried about the depletion of calcite.</p><p>Wallace Broecker, a Columbia University climate scientist who was not involved in the new study, said in an email that it “greatly overplays” the calcite problem. The dissolving of calcite “occurs naturally on a large scale in the deep sea,” he said. “A tiny bit more will have no consequence.”</p><p>Sulpis said the slow depletion of calcite matters, in part because it's unlikely to end anytime soon. Even if emissions of carbon dioxide ended today, he said, it would take centuries for the excess CO2 to stop dissolving the seafloor.</p><p>Then there's the stark realization that humanity's effect on our environment is disturbingly pervasive. As Sulpis put it, "Even at places on our planet where we have never set foot, or that have never been seen by human eyes, such as the deep sea, there is a trace of human activity."</p>

blic backlash over an epidemic of teenage vaping, Juul Labs announced on Tuesday that it would suspend sales of most of its flavored e-cigarette pods in retail stores and would discontinue its social media promotions.</p><p>The decision by the San Francisco-based company, which has more than 70 percent of the e-cigarette market share in the United States, is the most significant sign of retrenchment by an industry that set out to offer devices to help smokers quit but now shoulders blame for a new public health problem: nicotine addiction among nonsmoking teens.</p><p>Juul’s announcement effectively undercut the Food and Drug Administration’s plan to unveil a series of measures aimed at curbing teenage vaping. The agency is expected later this week to announce a ban on sales of flavored e-cigarettes in convenience stores and gas stations and strengthen the requirements for age verification of online sales of e-cigarettes.</p><p>To prevent some users from reverting to menthol cigarettes, Juul said it would keep mint, tobacco and menthol flavors for its devices in retail stores.</p><p>In recent months, the F.D.A. has mounted an increasingly aggressive campaign against the major manufacturers of vaping products that appeal to young people, focusing particularly on Juul. The company’s sleek device (nicknamed the iPhone of e-cigarettes) resembles a flash drive and comes with flavor pods like crème and mango, leading public health officials to criticize the company and others for appearing to market directly to teenagers, who are especially vulnerable to nicotine addiction.</p><p>E-cigarettes were originally developed to help smokers quit by giving them a way to satisfy their nicotine cravings without the tar and deadly carcinogens that come with burning tobacco.</p><p>“Our intent was never to have youth use Juul,” said Kevin Burns, chief executive of Juul Labs in a statement emailed to reporters. “But intent is not enough. The numbers are what matter and the numbers tell us underage use of e-cigarettes is a problem.”</p><p>But critics and public health advocates said the company had no choice, especially after the F.D.A. seized documents related to marketing strategies from the company’s headquarters last month, and while some states were investigating whether its tactics were directly aimed at minors.</p><p>Caroline Renzulli, a spokeswoman for the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, called Juul’s announcement too little too late. “Juul’s social media marketing fueled its popularity with kids,” she said. “Now that it has captured 75 percent of the e-cigarette market, Juul no longer needs to do social media marketing because its young customers are doing it for them.”</p><p>Maura Healey, the attorney general for Massachusetts, echoed that sentiment. “Unfortunately, much of the damage has already been done,” she said. “Our investigation into Juul’s practices, including if it was knowingly selling and marketing its products to young people, will continue.”</p><p>More than three million middle and high school students reported using e-cigarettes, according to preliminary, unpublished government data, with about one-third of them saying the flavors were a big factor in their choice.</p><p>Mr. Burns, the Juul executive, said that as of Tuesday, the company would stop accepting retail orders for mango, fruit, crème and cucumber Juul pods. Those account for about 45 percent of retail sales for the $16 billion company, according to some estimates.</p><p>Lower in the announcement, the company said it would renew sales of those products at retail outlets that invested in age-verification technology. A timetable for resuming those sales was not announced.</p><p>Juul also said it would improve its online age-verification system to ensure buyers are 21 or older. By the end of the year, Mr. Burns said, Juul will add a real-time photo requirement to match a buyer’s face against an uploaded government-issued ID. The company will also try to prevent bulk shipments to people who are distributing to minors, by restricting customers to two devices and 15 pod packages per month, and no more than 10 devices per year.</p><p>In addition, Juul said it would shut down its Facebook and Instagram accounts in the United States that promoted use of the flavored pods. According to its release, the company said it would ask the major social media companies, including Twitter and Snapchat, to help them “police” posts that promote the use of e-cigarettes or cigarettes by underage users.</p><p>Dr. Gottlieb said earlier that officials had met with several e-cigarette and tobacco companies to discuss ways to reduce youth vaping after threatening to take e-cigarettes off the market if the companies could not curb teenage sales.</p><p>R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company, a subsidiary of British American Tobacco, also submitted plans to the F.D.A. on Friday that backed the higher age limit.</p><p>Michael Shannon, a spokesman for R.J. Reynolds, said it also agreed not to market products through social media influencers and would also require age-verification for access to the website where it sells the e-cigarette Vuse.</p><p>The tobacco company stopped short of promising to take Vuse, which comes in berry and other flavors, out of retail stores, but Mr. Shannon said the company would enforce contractual penalties for retailers that sell tobacco products to youths. In addition, it plans to start a mystery shopping program to check compliance.</p><p>On Tuesday, CNBC reported that Fontem Ventures, a unit of Imperial Tobacco Group, would raise the minimum age to buy pods on its website to 21. The company sells blu e-cigarettes, which come in various fruity flavors.</p><p>Since it came on the market in 2015, Juul has become all but irresistible to teenagers, who had been drilled since preschool days on the perils of cigarette smoking. The name itself sounded like a mash-up of “jewel” and “cool.”</p><p>Unlike the clunky older vapes, the compact device could readily evade detection from parents and teachers. It not only looked like a flash drive, it could be recharged in a computer’s USB port. The flavors were both alluring and sophisticated. And it offered a way for teenagers to rebel and appear hip, seemingly without causing cancer.</p><p>Schools around the country were caught unaware. The aerosol mist from Juul is nearly odorless and dissipates within seconds. Students began juuling as teachers’ backs were turned. They filled school bathrooms for juuling breaks. And for all that school officials knew, students were just diligently recharging flash drives on laptops.</p><p>Within 18 months of Juul’s release, school officials began confiscating them and providing information sessions to parents. They had two paramount concerns: the increasing use of Juul and other vapes for marijuana and the amount of nicotine in Juul’s pods. Nicotine, the naturally occurring chemical in tobacco, is the addictive element that binds smokers to cigarettes and vapers to Juul and other e-cigarettes. Teenagers, whose brains are still developing, need less exposure to nicotine than adults in order to become addicted.</p><p>But perhaps most worrisome was a conclusion reached by the National Academies: that teenagers who use the devices may be at higher risk for cigarette smoking.</p><p>In its announcement on Tuesday, Juul emphasized its product’s use among adults as an alternative to cigarette smoking and said it would continue to post testimonials on YouTube of adults who had switched to Juul from traditional cigarettes.</p><p>Later this week, the F.D.A. is expected to propose a ban on sales of flavored e-cigarettes, with a few exceptions; a pursuit of a ban on menthol cigarettes, which could take years to go into effect; and stricter controls of online sales to prohibit minors from accessing the products.</p>

und that they’re real homebodies. </p><p>A decade of observations at 10 sites on four islands has revealed that the dragons essentially never leave the valley where they were born. It’s not that they can’t. They are capable of traveling many miles and through rough terrain, if necessary. They just don’t seem to feel like it.</p><p>Many island species, as it happens, show a marked tendency to stay close to home. It feels like a bit of a paradox: Their forebears may have arrived on that island through some great feat of survival or exploration, but the present generation prefers familiar comforts.</p><p>“Once they colonize an island, despite these incredible feats of long-distance dispersal, they decide, ‘Enough is enough!’” said Tim Jessop, the professor of ecology at Deakins University in Australia who led the study.</p><p>The causes of this behavior are likely to differ depending on the species and the situation. But it is puzzling: If animals stay in one place for many generations, they run the risk of inbreeding, facing resource scarcity and other dangers that moving elsewhere could allow them to avoid.</p><p>Is the problem that komodos are not confident navigators? Over the course of the study, researchers moved seven adult dragons away from their home territory. Some were transported as much as 13.7 miles away on the same islands, while others were ferried across a slip of water just over a mile wide to another island.</p><p>Within four months, the Komodo dragons transplanted overland all turned up again at home, clearly capable of making a journey. The dragons on the new island — much closer to where they started, and capable of swimming back — stayed put. Swimming home just didn’t seem to be worth the effort, apparently.</p><p>One explanation for this sedentary behavior, Dr. Jessop proposed, is that once you’re isolated on an island, any mistakes could be extremely costly. Having a whole continent to move across, with a landscape that changes relatively slowly, would make exploration less risky. </p><p>But a Komodo dragon that moves to a new island or a new island valley might find that it’s out of luck if, for instance, it’s unable to mate with any of the locals it encounters in its new home. There may also be survival benefits to being intimately familiar with one’s surroundings, like knowing exactly where to find prey.</p><p>That said, DNA data indicates that dragon populations show signs of inbreeding, and they are vulnerable to local shortages of food and natural disasters.</p><p>“They stay put almost irrespective of how bad it gets,” Dr. Jessop said. “It’s a bit bewildering.”</p><p>And yet Komodo dragons have their ways of making this life work.</p><p>“They are quirky animals,” Dr. Jessop continued, noting that the juveniles have a habit of climbing trees to escape cannibalism from their elders. They may look like ruthless top-level predators, but their goals as island creatures are considerably more modest that you may realize.</p><p>“Really what they’re trying to do,” Dr. Jessop said, “is not rock the boat.”</p>

backing PG&amp;E," McCallum told NBC News on Tuesday. "There is a powerful coalition backing them in this fight."</p><p>But with the horror from the November infernos growing and a new governor taking over in January, McCallum is hopeful that PG&amp;E’s latest attempt to get the state off its back will fail.</p><p>Governor-elect Gavin Newsome has “indicated a fairly thoughtful approach to this and we’re pretty optimistic he will come up with a thoughtful solution to keep Californians safe," he said.</p><p>And San Francisco-based PG&amp;E is not the only utility in California that has been trying to influence lawmakers in the aftermath of last year’s wildfires — and before the burning began this year.</p><p>Electric utilities in California as a whole spent heavily on state lobbying and campaign contributions this year as of Oct. 24, Open Secrets reported.</p><p>PG&amp;E caught a break in September when Gov. Jerry Brown signed sweeping legislation aimed at fighting California wildfires which, among other things, eased the burden for the utility by allowing it to tap customers for a portion of the costs from the 2017 fires.</p><p>"Wildfires in California aren’t going away and we have to do everything possible to prevent them,” the governor said. “This bill is complex and requires investment — but it’s absolutely necessary.”</p><p>McCallum said PG&amp;E has a “horrible safety record” and should not be rewarded by further loosening rules so they can escape from their responsibilities.</p><p>"We think we have something in place that will force them to be safer, and make decisions that will be safer for all Californians," he said.</p><p>Corky Siemaszko is a senior writer at NBC News Digital.</p>

y system will undergo a huge transformation. Wind and solar power are poised to become dominant sources of electricity. China’s once-relentless appetite for coal is set to wane. The amount of oil we use to fuel our cars could peak and decline.</p><p>But there’s a catch: The global march toward clean energy still isn’t happening fast enough to avoid dangerous global warming, at least not unless governments put forceful new policy measures in place to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. </p><p>Around the world, the electricity sector “is experiencing its most dramatic transformation since its creation more than a century ago,” the report said. One big factor is the rapid growth of wind and solar power.</p><p>Over the past five years, the average cost of solar power has declined 65 percent and the cost of onshore wind has fallen 15 percent. The energy agency predicts those prices will keep tumbling as technology improves and governments scale back subsidies. Solar plants are becoming well-placed to outcompete new coal plants almost everywhere.</p><p>“Our solar expectations are about 20 percent higher than they were last year, both because of new policies in China and India and because the costs are coming down so fast,” said Fatih Birol, the agency’s executive director.</p><p>For decades, developing countries like China and India have turned to coal as the cheapest, easiest way to power their economies and lift themselves out of poverty. It’s a big reason carbon dioxide emissions have skyrocketed. </p><p>And, while countries in Southeast Asia and elsewhere are still drawing up plans to build new coal plants, the agency expects this frenzy of construction to slow sharply after 2020. </p><p>But don’t expect coal to disappear altogether. While the era of rapid coal growth is fading, the agency projects that global coal consumption could stay flat for decades. One reason for that: The average coal plant in Asia is less than 15 years old (compared to about 41 years in the United States). Those plants will keep polluting for decades, unless countries decide to retire them early or develop technology to capture and bury their emissions. </p><p>Even as the world puts hundreds of millions of new cars on the road, we’re increasingly using less oil to fuel them. The report projects that global oil use for cars will peak by the mid-2020s as countries ratchet up their fuel-economy standards and deploy more electric vehicles.</p><p>Those sectors haven’t seen the same improvements in efficiency. As a result, the agency expects global oil demand to keep rising through 2040, led by developing countries.</p><p>One reason: Carbon-free sources like wind, solar and nuclear power aren’t yet growing fast enough to keep up with rising global energy demand, particularly in places like India and Southeast Asia. That means fossil fuel use keeps growing to fill the gap.</p><p>Governments will play a key role: The report notes that the world invests $2 trillion annually in energy infrastructure, and 70 percent of that is directed by state-owned companies or regulators. “That tells me that our energy destiny will rely heavily on government decisions in the next two decades,” Mr. Birol said.</p>

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