Kerryon Johnson to Remain Committee Trapped in 2019

Despite some rookie-year flashes, Lions RB Kerryon Johnson is unlikely to be unleashed in 2019. HC Matt Patricia and GM Bob Quinn share a committee-preference, emphasized further by their recent signing of CJ “Thick’ums” Anderson. Though KJ should produce when on the field, his chances will once again be limited by this awful regime.

Johnson posted the NFL’s second-highest YPC (5.4), but will likely have to fight for his touches once more. Anderson, who feasted late last season, seems likely to take on the LeGarrette Blount “big back” role, albeit with far more talent. Last season, Johnson averaged 11.8 carries and 3.7 targets when he and Blount were both active, a number that is now unlikely to rise, unfortunately. This is especially troubling at the goalline, as Blount dominated touches her despite sucking tremendously. Anderson is far more efficient here, and Johnsons TD upside is again capped.

This is by Patricia’s design: “I think it’s a position-specific thing where those guys, they take a lot of hits…they’re in those situations a lot where their bodies are taking some pounding so you want to be conscious of how many plays they’re getting, especially early on in the year.”

GM Quinn shared the sentiment, inducing puke from fantasy-owners by saying: “I never use the word bell-cow. The way the NFL’s setup nowadays, you’ve got to have multiple backs. … so to keep everyone healthy and fresh through the second half of the season, it’s not good to kind of have just one, main guy.”

Between ceding early-down and GL work to Anderson, as well as third-down usage to Theo Riddick, Johnson projects to again be trapped in between-the-20s purgatory. He’s talented enough to still put up some stats, but is severely overpriced.

Bottom Line: Pass-catching specialist, who? Christian McCaffrey returned to his college workhorse roots under new OC Norv Turner, and quickly put up Fantasy MVP-worthy numbers. He continued to flash his otherworldly receiving abilities, hauling in an NFL record 106 catches for 875 yards and 6 TDs. Yet where the usage really rose was the carries, as McCaffrey nearly doubled his 2017 total for 215 carries, 1080 yards, and 7 scores. These 321 total touches ranked third behind only Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley, and this newfound volume created the ultimate ceiling / floor combination. In the process, McCaffrey flashed both the elusiveness, breakaway ability, and most shockingly underrated power to redefine the workhorse model.

​New OC Norv Turner deserves immense credit for this outburst. His previous work with LaDanian Tomlinson proved he wasn't afraid to ride a smaller-back, as he's able to scheme his guys in space and in creative outside gaps versus just blasting them up the gut... but even still, never before had an NFL back played nearly 97% of the team's snaps. Yes, this number inevitably will fall in 2019, but McCaffrey should still hover around 85-90%, especially with Turner returning. Expect a similar buffet of weekly volume with the upside for even more efficiency should the Panthers beef up their line while their explosive young wideouts take a next step forward.

Ceiling Projection: 320 touches (100 rec.), 2,000 Tot. Yds, 13 TDs

Floor Projection*: 270 touches (70 rec.), 1600 Tot. Yds, 7 TDs

Actual Projection: 310 touches (90 rec), 1900 Tot. Yds, 12 TDs

*Note - Floors are done without injuries in mind. Of course the lowest floor is torn ACL first play of scrimmage. This assumes 16 games