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Wednesday, 3 February 2016

Retrench during Oil Crisis! Why?

The
current oil crisis is definitely one of the worst the world had seen in many
decades. Oil price free-fall from more than $100 per barrel late 2014 to less than $30 a
barrel during the start of 2016 in what is described by many as a year
of annus horribilis!

The
downturn in the industry had resulted in widespread retrenchments. Even
the usually resilient Keppel had recently announced to slash more than 6000
direct staffs in the O&M division. Over the last few months, I also heard
so many ex-colleagues/friends being shown the exit door.

Our
company is not spared

The
company I work for is not spared. Although our core business is not in O&G,
a big part of the revenue is still derived from this important sector.
Retrenchment announcements began last year affecting the Western Hemisphere.
Despite our company's extremely strong balance sheet and not a public listed company, the management announcement of layoff is because they anticipated a more severe downturn and wanted to have a faster reaction time. The layoff plan
was hampered by the strong unions though and talks are still ongoing.

Retrenched

Back
home, last week was an emotional one. Local colleagues were asked to leave due
to the lack of jobs in their department. That said, our company is
benevolent enough to offer alternative employment options but all turned down
due to job scope mismatch. They took the retrenchment options
instead!

Look
for signals before things happened

There
are symptoms before you become sick. Similarly, unless you commit a grave
mistakes, retrenchment usually does not happen abruptly. You can sense it way
before. Facing
the precipice of decline in the industry, I had already predicted this
predicament for those affected in our local office way before. In fact for
those colleagues laid off, it has been quite a while since they were preoccupied
with serious work! It was not even a small fraction of what they were employed
to do. They should have already realised it early last year, but it was
not the case. Me being obnoxiously sensitive by nature sensed the impending
issue and consequently provided many hints to them. Sadly, it was not
reciprocated with action.

Over-optimism

I
suppose this is human nature. During the onset of a crisis, over-optimism often
overshadows the cruel reality. Most people tend not to anticipate and take
appropriate measures early. You will hear things like:

"Don't
think so much lar.... things will turn out just fine!"

Or

"It's
never gonna to be me!"

Or
some will say "no problem lar... I wait for retrenchment
package!"

For
those at a younger age and only few years in the company I really ponder why they
adored the retrenchment package so much!

Expect
the unexpected

Part
of the blame has to attribute to my company top executives who visited several
times last year projecting the positive future of this office. When
industry outlook becomes gloomier each day, the pretty picture once painted
will also fade away.

Feeling
indifferent to the oil crisis, one colleague who was axed had recently bought a
new car. Another was learning driving and already started looking for a new car
to buy back! The worst of all, is their manager who manage to keep his job,
just bought a new car even after he knows that his staffs will be all laid off.
When I asked him why at this time? He said "he cannot resist the personal
temptation!"

The
even more sorry state are those being axed are super nice people really.
Furthermore they are intelligent people graduated with good degrees and
masters. Yet,
it's remarkable to me to know how people is not only oblivious to imminent
crisis, they can even make some really unwise distasteful decisions
prior!

Wisdom?

By
the way, the good news is those who left without job with family burdens do not
seem worry at all. They are still joking and said "find another job
lor!" Undoubtedly, it's great to be positive. My question is
"can we at least do something before this happen?"

Who
to blame? Industry, company or to some extend ourself?

My wife ask me what advice I gave to the staffs who left. I told my wife nothing. This is because I normally like to give advice prior to disaster taking place!

Have
a long term plan

This
is not the first time for me to see people leaving during a crisis. In 2009
during the GFC, several more drastic ones took place in my previous
company. It left me wonders if one day that will happen to me in a
corporate world too?

This
is precisely why I already started charting my long-term future plans both
financially and mentally years back, in case I become the victim one day. Last
year in anticipating a severe downturn ahead, I had made several decisions,
which I feel help to prepare me both mentally and financially.

Adding value is critical

First,
I had taken on more work scope even with no pay rise last year. Refer
to my article last June here,
where I mentioned I had assumed a bigger responsibility without increment. Subsequently I had also made proposal to our
highest management to optimize our business. Not a business plans to layoff
people definitely.

Be mentally prepared always

Secondly,
I told my wife to be mentally prepared in case I were to go, even when the
chance is really slim considering the amount of work I had on hand.

Prudent man prepares

Finally,
after the stock market crash in Aug last year, I already did my sums and keep
more cash as hedge against the potentially unpredictable predicament. Refer here.

You
ought to be a paranoid (but a confident and smart one). Count your cards early
before the crisis unfolds. Then by the time the storm comes, you not only
can weather the storm, you can even find great opportunities during a
crisis!

Stay
tuned to part two where I will discuss how I manage to find opportunities in
the last few crises in my life.

This 100 year plus retailer first went into Chapter 11 and then bankruptcy... I survived 2 rounds of retrenchments. It was surreal as Singapore economy was booming then. Jumped ship to IKEA before they finally closed down the Singapore office 1 year after I left...

Then at IKEA, when the regional head office was relocated from Singapore to Shanghai, I lost many colleagues. Its a strategic move that I saw coming and positioned for it. I was already in Shanghai for 1.5 years when the news broke.

Now Maersk is also relocating their regional head office from Singapore to Hong Kong...

You are a weathered veteran in the corporate, you sure know. I totally agree with you that what does not kill us make us stronger!

Corporate is unpredictable. Survival and political skill is part of the must learn other than the work itself. Many just do not understand.

Crisis is the best time to learn. The most worrying is not crisis, but the inability to see it coming at all, without any counter action and mental preparation!

It is already a known fact that HQs are relocating away from SG. Just within last year, many major O&G companies such as Mcdermott, Technip and Subsea 7 already announced relocation to KL. And other companies in other sectors are also relocating APAC HQ to Shanghai or HK.

Fret and cry? Not quite the correct stance! Adapt like u say or do something early so that when the day comes, is the day u activate ur path B!

That's the reason we try very hard not to get into debt and live within our means.I retrenched myself at the age of 53.My wife faced retrenchment more then 4 or 5 times in her office.Thank GOD when she finally got retrenched, when she was already 60. She got 2 years retrenchment benefits just coincidence timing for her retirement at 62 - No need to work till 62 where she most probably will be retired by company.

We can never tell when we will be retrenched. You may be the most valuable worker for your company but if the company doesn't make enough money.......That's life.

Ha! Ha!Ya! i stopped completely at 53 after some very hard thinking. i mean i dared to stop earning a living except my stock investing. i had come to conclusion my family can survive quite nicely. My family could still afford a car at that time till now.Shalom, Amen.

Thanks. Yes, bottom of the list, but not entirely spared! Ok... over-pessimism is distasteful also! :-)

I have dual views on the iron rice bowl job who many of my friends are in. The good is u are so-called shield, the bad is if u start to hate ur job or boss n u r so specialized, u will have tough time gg to work. And often, exposure is reserve for higher management who need to be "older"!

This I get feedback from many of my Frds. But Teacher is different. The focus should be doing good to the next generation. And that is the only govt job I will consider!

Hi Rolf, hopefully you also have a back-up plan e.g. work on self-employed basis etc, because depending on a company to stay employed especially in your industry is quite difficult. Even if you do add value, you try your best, sometimes things just end with retrenchment. Time to think what else you can do on your own and start building the credentials for that too. My 2 cents' worth :).

Thankfully, I am not unaffected and in fact never been so busy in the last 3 years. I m quite lucky I m now in the frontline and any value or potential value added is more visible. That said, I am still cautiously optimistic.

I agree with u that back-up plan is impt. And even more impt is the plan must be made during the good times, not when crisis is nearing.

Having additional taps of income is also impt. Knowing more people/bosses in the industry also provides other back up plans.

After this job, I do not think (hopefully) I will ever work for someone else again, even if I do, I will want to be a major shareholder. Pray! haha...

I don't generally commentary on blogs but as I see this blog I completely motivated to make one praise that I understand that not enough for the significant context on your writing as one that could understand easily.

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This blog and its contents contain the opinions and views of me. It is not a recommendation to purchase or sell the stocks of any of the companies or investments herein discussed. If a reader requires expert financial advice, a competent professional should be consulted. I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information contained herein the blog and its contents. Other than being the shareholders of some of the stocks discussed herein at the time of writing, I am not in any way related to the company mentioned within the blog. I specifically disclaim any responsibility for any liability, loss, or risk, professional or otherwise, which is incurred as a consequence, directly or indirectly, of the use and application of any contents of this blog.