HTML5 Video is coming to Opera 10.5. Yesterday (or technically, last year--happy new year readers!) Opera released a new alpha build containing a preview of their HTML5 Video support. There's a number of details to note, not least that this is still an early alpha...

last I checked, h264 licenses costs were made against the tool makers, not the tool users.

If I make an h264 video, I don't have to worry about licensing costs... the browser vendor does.... and now that windows, Mac and Linux support h264 playback, I think it is moot.

You didn't check very well.

Beginning in 2011, you will apparently have to pay a yearly royalty fee if you make a website that includes any h264 video. The more video data you send to more users, the higher the royalty fee will be. Sites such as Youtube are already looking at alternatives, to the extent that Google has purchased On2 (owners of the VP6, Vp7 and VP8 codecs).