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NBA Picks

NBA Pick: Underdog Value Play Monday

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Monday.

It is quite possible that the wrong team is a small favorite on Monday night when the New Orleans Pelicans (11-14, 4-9 away) pay a visit to the Sacramento Kings (8-18, 5-10 home) at Sleep Train Arena in Sacramento, CA at 10:05 ET in a game televised nationally on NBA TV.

The Pelicans have visited four difficult venues during their losing streak with the losses coming at Denver, Golden State, the Los Angeles Clippers and Portland, and they took the 23-5 Trail Blazers down to the wire in a 110-107 loss on Saturday, covering the spread as eight-point underdogs.

Also, New Orleans guard Tyreke Evans should be extra motivated making his first trip to Sacramento as a visiting player. Evans spent the first four seasons of his career with the Kings before being traded away to New Orleans during this past off-season, including winning the NBA Rookie of the Year Award during the 2009-10 season.

Evans is certainly in good form while seeking some personal revenge as he filled out the stat sheet quite nicely in Portland with 21 points, six assists and six rebounds. Evans is currently the sixth man in New Orleans because of an excellent backcourt that has Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon as the starters, but all three should see ample playing time.

The excellent New Orleans backcourt could potentially dominate vs. a Sacramento defense that is 29th out of 30 NBA teams in points against at 103.3 per game and an identical 29th in field goal percentage allowed at 47.3 percent.

Thus, even with this game being on the road, New Orleans seems to present nice long term value on Monday.