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Harry Enten

Five reasons not to bet on Marco Rubio for 2016

3. Rubio is likely too conservative

People may be being fooled, currently, into thinking that Rubio is a middle-of-the-road politician. After all, he’s from the swing state of Florida and is sponsoring immigration reform. Rubio was, in fact, the seventh most conservative senator in the 112th Congress. His voting record puts him sandwiched between arch-conservatives Jim Inhofe and Ron Johnson.

Very conservative nominees can win a party’s nomination, as did Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan. The issue for Rubio, though, is that these folks became nominees when the party had just recently been in the White House. When the party has been out for two terms or more, the nominees tend to be a lot more moderate – because the party wants to win and wants a centrist pick. The most conservative nominee after the party had been out of office for more than two terms was George W Bush, the “compassionate conservative” who, at the time, was not seen nearly as rightwing as he later was. …

4. Rubio is largely an unknown

How much do we really know about Marco Rubio, and how he’d perform on the big stage? I mean, besides making a Time Magazine cover story, Rubio is quite untested. With relatively little media scrutiny, he had to fight through a credit card expenses scandal (an Ethics Commission ultimately threw out the case); he has also been exposed as having embellished his family history about his parents’ flight from Fidel Castro’s Cuba. …

That all said – though for different reasons the country cast its die – Obama in 2004/5 was too liberal and largely unknown. Hillary was the “establishment” candidate – among a couple others. Obama was not “next in line” and he did face a very competitive field.

The most conservative nominee after the party had been out of office for more than two terms was George W Bush, the “compassionate conservative” who, at the time, was not seen nearly as rightwing as he later was. …

“Right wing” according to who? Karl Marx?
Bush campaigned as a moderate, and he governed as one for eight years. He was never anything near being a conservative.

No argument there. But who’s next in line? I don’t see anyone from the 2012 field resurfacing in 2016 except for maybe Rick Perry, and he’s a longshot at best. Santorum’s flaws last year are still gonna be around 3 years from now, only he’ll have been out of office even longer.

Paul Ryan will have an edge as the former VP pick, but that can also work against him. He has the stigma of being on a losing ticket(that frankly had no business losing). So this won’t really hurt Rubio much.

2. Republicans choose the candidate backed by the establishment

Again, no argument. But 2016 is likely to see a very competitive primary with the grassroots determined to not be saddled with another squishy moderate whom the establishment claims is the only person who can win a general election. Not after McCain and Romney. Hell, you could argue it already happened in 2012. Romney only won the nomination after he was the last man standing. The conservative base was desperate for an alternative which led to even Herman Cain leading the polls for over a month.

3. Rubio is likely too conservative

He should only be so lucky. The perception of being too conservative would guarantee him the nomination.

4. Rubio is largely an unknown

Uh, so was Barack Obama. So was Mitt Romney to most independents and Democrats. So was John Kerry to most Americans. So was John Edwards. You can have a lot of success as an unknown in the primaries. In fact, I’d argue that this can be a good thing as it allows you to define yourself for the voters rather than be a known commodity with already potentially high negative ratings(Hillary in 2008).

5. A Rubio run would face a competitive GOP field

This I agree with completely, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on Rubio. If Obama’s 2nd term is a disaster as many of us predict, I would expect the 2016 GOP primary to be preoccupied mainly with undoing the damage of the Obama Presidency which would be moving the country back to the right after 8 years of ultraleftist policies. That’s gonna hurt moderate types like CRISTie or Jeb Bush. Which means the goal for the Republican candidates will be to come off as the most electable true conservative in the field. Rubio has to be careful with the whole immigration issue, but he’s articulate, likeable, Latino, and can appeal to Tea Partiers and traditional GOP voters alike.

It would be foolish to bet against him unless the amnesty/immigration bill blows up in his face. Or if his hairline keeps receding(and I wish I was joking about that).

And who isn’t? Who, in your eyes, should be the nominee in ’16? Not saying it ought to be Rubio, but it’s funny to hear people complain about the guy who took on the establishment to run against Crist as being too chummy with them.

If anything is going to destroy our chances of keeping the House next year and/or winning the Presidency in 2016, it’s all the infighting between Republicans – RINOs vs. conservatives, “establishment” vs. Tea Party, etc.

There are some candidates, like Christie, who are beneath contempt, but most of the others are varying degrees of “establishment,” anyway – simply by virtue of holding elected office.

All the infighting and namecalling in the GOP is getting rather childish.

In 1996, an unknown Rubio offered to help Bob Dole’s campaign and Dole’s Florida director, Al Cardenas, was immediately impressed with Rubio’s potential and hired him. Rubio availed himself well, and two years later, he decided to get into campaigning for real and ran to become a commissioner in West Miami — a position that doesn’t sound like much of a position.

Rubio won, and on election night got a call from Jeb Bush, who by this time was aware of Rubio and his electoral potential no matter how inchoate.

All the infighting and namecalling in the GOP is getting rather childish.

DRayRaven on February 12, 2013 at 11:34 AM

Then tell the Vichy Right to stop colluding with the dems on everything and to stop attacking the Tea Party and conservativism. Amnesty is sure death for the GOP and the Vichy Right are determined to kill the GOP by pushing that treasonous [email protected] on us, again. They didn’t learn their lesson in 2006-2008 and the chasm they allowed this country to approach as they shat all over the conservative base.

Namecalling is nothing compared to what Rubio, the Weeping Boner and the rest of the Vichy have been doing. Worry about actions, not words.

In 1996, an unknown Rubio offered to help Bob Dole’s campaign and Dole’s Florida director, Al Cardenas, was immediately impressed with Rubio’s potential and hired him. Rubio availed himself well, and two years later, he decided to get into campaigning for real and ran to become a commissioner in West Miami — a position that doesn’t sound like much of a position.

Rubio won, and on election night got a call from Jeb Bush, who by this time was aware of Rubio and his electoral potential no matter how inchoate.

TxAnn56 on February 12, 2013 at 11:37 AM

That makes him a “puppet”? Apparently we differ on our definition of the term…

I agree with that. I don’t mind having a GOP establishment. I just don’t like this one and the best thing to do is to change it to one that more to my liking, which is Tea Party-ish. This will take time and constant effort but it’s working already.

It also has the benefit of giving Rove many more options in picking solid conservatives who also can win … or show himself to be a big fat liar. Take your pick.

Methinks that the left is very worried about Rubio considering that this is the second liberal wishcasting piece that I saw. And he is the establishment candidate. Don’t think that all the GOP insiders aren’t tickled pink about this guy and aren’t going to spend the next three years grooming him so he is a plausible CinC by 2016.

I agree with that. I don’t mind having a GOP establishment. I just don’t like this one and the best thing to do is to change it to one that more to my liking, which is Tea Party-ish. This will take time and constant effort but it’s working already.

It also has the benefit of giving Rove many more options in picking solid conservatives who also can win … or show himself to be a big fat liar. Take your pick.

Dusty on February 12, 2013 at 11:43 AM

I honestly don’t agree that the Tea Party is gaining ground. If anything, there’s been a major backlash from the party establishment and an effort to “clean out” conservatives in the upper ranks. I have become convinced internal GOP reform is impossible and a new second party will likely have to be started.

War on Womenz… The Sequel. Even shriller. BTW, how does Santorum make money or is he for all women staying in the kitchen except his wife?

That makes him a “puppet”? Apparently we differ on our definition of the term…

changer1701 on February 12, 2013 at 11:43 AM

I think he is a Jeb Bush protege but those two have broken up over 2016. Apparently, Jeb Bush was really contemplating a 2016 vanity run. My own theory on the 2010 Senate race is that Jeb Bush “advised” Rubio to run so that Jeb could extract a little revenge against Charlie Crist. However, Jeb didn’t realize that there would be blowback. So whatever you think of Rubio’s immigration policies, we should be grateful to him for ending the political careers of both those bozos.

Rubio is a conservative? What a joke. The word “conservative” has been “severely” redefined recently, thanks in large part to people like Rush who calls big-gov statists like Romney, (and presumably Obama if he only had an R next to his name), “conservative”.

These days “conservative” basically means the same thing that “liberal” does, the only difference is whether there’s a superficial D or R next to the persons name.

The most conservative nominee after the party had been out of office for more than two terms was George W Bush, the “compassionate conservative” who, at the time, was not seen nearly as rightwing as he later was. …

When It was explained to me what “compassionate conservatism” was I felt like I had been spat on. Later when W bragged, “I ran the conservatives out of the Republican party” that feeling was confirmed.
The Bushes, like Nixon, are considered right wing only because they’re Republicans. If Rubio was really a conservative he wouldn’t be the GOP establishment’s golden boy.

The truth is that libs fear him running
terryannonline on February 12, 2013 at 12:04 PM

There has been a full court press by the left to discredit him ahead of the SOTU response tonight. Debbie Downer was trotting out her faux senior citizen constituents to smear him. There has been a host of reports telling us why Rubio is a sure loser in 2016 and yet still some commenters here have trouble fitting the pieces of the puzzle together. Go figure.

The left will do to Rubio what they did to Miguel Estrada. No way are Republicans going to nominate a candidate to the Supreme Court or the presidency before they get the chance.

I honestly don’t agree that the Tea Party is gaining ground. If anything, there’s been a major backlash from the party establishment and an effort to “clean out” conservatives in the upper ranks. I have become convinced internal GOP reform is impossible and a new second party will likely have to be started.

Doomberg on February 12, 2013 at 11:47 AM

Unfortunately, I have to agree. At this point the establishment GOP is ready to accelerate this civil war within. They even want to sacrifice the 2014 and 2016 elections just so the conservative movement gets silenced forever. After all, they will still enjoy their positions of power, even in the minority.

It’s not a question of ‘can the destruction of the Republican Party be prevented,’ but a question of ‘when will the destruction take place?’