Limits to denting nature's forces

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The havoc and tragedy unleashed by tsunamis to Australia's north
naturally set alarm bells ringing. For all we have learnt about
these ferocious natural phenomenons of the oceans, why is it we
cannot better protect ourselves from their devastation?

If we know when they are on their way, why can't early warnings
do better to clear people from their paths? A world which 35 years
ago put men on the moon must surely have the wherewithal to block
or avoid a wall of seawater, even those capable of splintering
seaside communities and ripping ships from their moorings before
throwing them hundreds of metres inland. Well, shouldn't it?

The temptation to think much more could have been done to avoid
natural disasters is entirely understandable given the terrible
price of failure. It holds that anything is possible if enough
will, co-operation and financial and intellectual resources are
simultaneously applied. These ingredients will be essential in the
months ahead as the world pulls together to counter the
consequences of nature rather than to diminish its forces.
Australia's $10 million initial contribution is a worthy start but,
as the Government acknowledges, much more will be needed.

The most common cause of tsunamis is an earthquake unleashed by
sudden shifts in tectonic plates. Such violent forces are
notoriously difficult to predict above water, let alone at ocean
depths. And tsunamis move so fast it is improbable that much can be
done to clear coastal areas in their paths, even with early
warning. As the Wollongong University geoscientist Ted Bryant
realistically observes: how would one go standing on a crowded
Bondi Beach shouting to bathers that a tsunami, travelling at
between 800 and 1000 kilometres an hour (as Sunday's did), was
around the bend and they should promptly evacuate?

Of course, it would be better than no warning. Some people at
least would get the chance to scramble to safety. But the
possibilities for safety should not be overstated because that
fosters unrealistic expectation and fuels the blame game that
inevitably follows such tragedies.

A Los Angeles-based tsunami warning centre revealed yesterday it
could not deliver useful early warnings on Sunday because
South-East Asia lacks an official alert system and the centre's
contact list was lacking. If one result of Sunday is an upgraded
system for disseminating the alert, all the better. Any saving of
life is a bonus, of course. But the world's strongest earthquake in
40 years was detected in Australia within a few minutes. There is
little room for reducing detection times.

Five hundred years ago a comet dropped into the Pacific Ocean,
triggering a tsunami so forceful it crashed over The Gap and
obliterated much of the scientific record of any earlier tsunamis
that had hit Sydney's future site. Knowledge of Sydney's
vulnerability to such an event is therefore dented. It is clear,
however, that we are not out of harm's way. That injects yet
another element to the calculation of life's risks.

Stepping out of Russia's shadow

For more than a millennium Ukraine has lived in Russia's shadow.
On Boxing Day, Ukrainian voters turned their backs on Moscow.
Russia's "little brother" is looking West. The rerun of November's
flawed presidential elections handed victory to the West-leaning
opposition leader, Viktor Yushchenko, overturning the earlier,
fraudulent win claimed by the Kremlin's favoured son, Viktor
Yanukovich.

For Mr Yanukovich and the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, the
new results are deeply humiliating. Not only did Mr Yushchenko
survive disfiguring dioxin poisoning during November's bitter
campaign - which he blamed on his political opponents - but tens of
thousands of Ukrainians protested against Mr Yanukovich's dubious
win. The peaceful election rerun, following intervention led by the
European Union, is a positive signal that Ukraine is not prepared
to dance to its former ruler's tune.

The name Ukraine means "borderlands". Since the ninth century
that has mainly meant Russia's border. The demise of the Russian
Empire after the revolution of 1917 triggered a flush of enthusiasm
and optimism for Ukrainian nationalism. But Red Army troops quickly
poured into Kiev and Ukraine was again swallowed up by the Soviet
Union. The advancing German Nazi forces were briefly, and
erroneously, welcomed as liberators in the face of Stalinist
brutality. But World War II cost at least 6 million Ukrainian
lives.

The Chernobyl nuclear disaster in 1986 revived anti-Russian
sentiment and with the collapse of the Soviet Union five years
later independence was finally realised. But popular hopes were
not. Independence has been marred by economic and political chaos,
partly because of conflict over Moscow's influence, complicated by
Kiev's reliance on Russian energy.

The election results should clear the way for Kiev to align
itself firmly with the Europe and the West. This year's enlargement
of the European Union to take in the former Eastern bloc nations,
including neighbouring Poland, means the West's European zone of
influence has expanded considerably, right up to Russia's
border.

But the shadow of history lingers. From the mid-1600s Ukraine
was partitioned for more than a century between Russia and Poland,
a divides that still resonates. Mr Yanukovich continues to hold
sway in much of the economically powerful east, the former Russian
zone, where Russian is the main language. The next test lies in
whether the Yanukovich camp will afford Mr Yushchenko the clean
break he needs to turn Ukraine's considerable economic potential
into national prosperity.