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State of Enda? Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (4th December 2011)

The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (4th December 2011) shows a dip in support (albeit not a dramatic one) for the government parties, with a notable recovery for Fianna Fail building on a strong showing in the Dublin West by-election (and probably also related to Sean Gallagher’s strong campaign for the presidential election). The poll puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings as follows: Fine Gael 32%, Labour 15%, Fianna Fail 18%, Sinn Fein 15%, Independents and Others (including Green Party) 20%. Based on assigning seats on the basis of constituency support estimates (simply using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats), while also taking account of the factors of vote transfers and vote splitting/management (based on vote transfer/management patterns oberved in the February 2011 election), party seat levels would be estimated as follows: Fine Gael 67, Labour 28, Fianna Fail 25, Sinn Fein 22, Others 24.

The constituency support estimates based on the poll figures are as follows:

FF

FG

LB

SF

OTH

Carlow-Kilkenny

29%

35%

13%

15%

8%

Cavan-Monaghan

19%

32%

4%

36%

9%

Clare

24%

39%

12%

0%

25%

Cork East

18%

34%

25%

17%

6%

Cork North Central

15%

23%

20%

22%

19%

Cork North West

27%

45%

11%

12%

6%

Cork South Central

29%

31%

14%

13%

13%

Cork South West

25%

44%

11%

11%

8%

Donegal North East

16%

26%

8%

34%

17%

Donegal South West

20%

15%

3%

42%

20%

Dublin Central

15%

17%

21%

19%

27%

Dublin Mid West

12%

28%

24%

18%

17%

Dublin North

17%

29%

21%

0%

33%

Dublin North Central

14%

34%

18%

9%

26%

Dublin North East

12%

27%

27%

19%

15%

Dublin North West

12%

15%

33%

32%

8%

Dublin South

10%

32%

14%

4%

40%

Dublin South Central

10%

21%

27%

20%

22%

Dublin South East

12%

33%

20%

6%

29%

Dublin South West

11%

25%

28%

26%

9%

Dublin West

18%

25%

23%

9%

25%

Dun Laoghaire

17%

33%

25%

0%

25%

Galway East

19%

38%

10%

9%

23%

Galway West

21%

27%

9%

9%

34%

Kerry North-West Limerick

12%

35%

15%

30%

8%

Kerry South

14%

28%

8%

0%

50%

Kildare North

16%

31%

24%

9%

21%

Kildare South

23%

31%

22%

10%

14%

Laois-Offaly

26%

29%

6%

16%

23%

Limerick City

23%

40%

16%

13%

8%

Limerick

23%

46%

15%

0%

16%

Longford-Westmeath

21%

35%

22%

12%

10%

Louth

15%

26%

14%

31%

13%

Mayo

17%

60%

4%

10%

9%

Meath East

21%

37%

17%

14%

12%

Meath West

18%

40%

10%

26%

6%

Roscommon-South Leitrim

15%

33%

7%

14%

31%

Sligo-North Leitrim

22%

31%

8%

19%

20%

Tipperary North

17%

21%

15%

9%

39%

Tipperary South

13%

30%

8%

7%

42%

Waterford

14%

34%

15%

15%

22%

Wexford

19%

31%

16%

9%

25%

Wicklow

11%

35%

13%

15%

26%

Based on these constituency estimates, followed by amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of a large/small number of candidates contesting the election (e.g. Others being allocated a seat in Laois-Offaly mainly due to the large number of independent candidates who contested this constituency), vote transfers and vote management (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands), the seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:

It looks like these illusions of re-creating this mythic and transcendental Republic emerging from the bitter competiton between FF and SF combined with some versions of the utopian visions conjured up by the hard left – that would protect us from the predations of these evil bond markets and the forces of darkness in the EU – are attracting increased popular support.

It is likely to exert enormous pressure on Labour. It’ll be a battle between those whose backsides were aching for 14 years to sit on ministerial seats (and are now comfortably ensconced) and those who are looking at an abrupt termination of their parliamentary careers. The smaller partiy in a coalition always ends up being the mudguard of the bigger party.

And these illusions are no less dangerous and damaging than that propagated by the Taoiseach that governance in Ireland is now hunky-dory. Nothing could be further from the truth. (By explicitly absolving the people for the previous woeful misgovernance, he, in effect, conceded that the people have no effective say on governance between elections – and very little at elections.)

It may be that this reality is dawning on some voters.

However, it is likely the centre will hold. The alternative is too frightening. But propogating an illusion is a recipe for future disaster.

The man who pays himself €200k plus expenses and pensions and allowances and then forces through a payment for his own crony adviser, instead of maybe explaining that those who work in public service do at the expenses of what they might earn in the private sector, tells us the hard choices he is making, that don’t effect him, are what needs to be done.

that is not a ‘problem’ with a political solution, but a mathematical and ecological and physical fact to which any ‘solution’ involves a suspension of the laws of nature.

anyone who sees this mathematical fact as an opportunity to assert their particular views on fairness, social equality, relative merits of tweedledum party over the tweedledee party, city humiliating united, rangers leveling the score with celtic, or munster’s chances in the heineken cup – is being self indulgent.

austerity isn’t working, poverty isn’t working, and unemployment is incontrovertibly not working at all.

but there is no solution, because defining it as a ‘problem’ is no more than spin. it’s not a problem, it’s a condition.

that is why the mob is not rioting. at some level, despite all of the pretence, they understand this. global industrial civilisation has run out of planet. we are starting down the road back to the pre industrial normality. it’s the new middle ages. start walking.