Somewhat counter-intuitively, the good news for the Liberals is that they aren't even remotely in the game in any of these ridings. An extra seat here or there won't change the parliamentary math, so by elections are all about momentum. And since it's a fairly risk-free proposition for them, Ignatieff won't fall victim to the same media pile-on that befell Dion after a string of bad by election performances in 2007 and 2008.

The Bloc are on the other side, trying to defend a pair of safe seats. They'll need to be careful in Montmagny, since the party has under-performed in by elections over the past few years, but they're probably looking at two holds.

Out east, Bill Cassey's old riding is up for grabs. Given its history, it's hard to see this one not going Conservative, but it will bear watching if Cassey endorses anyone or actively campaigns against his old party. Still, let's mark that one in the Tory win column.

Which brings us to the most interesting of the quartet - New Westminster-Coquitlam. Dawn Black (NDP) is the outgoing MP, but the last 3 elections have all been close NDP-CPC races, so this one could definitely go either way. The NDP appear poised to make this a referendum on the HST - that didn't really work for Tim Hudak, but the general consensus seems to be it's a bigger issue in BC than Ontario these days. Consider this riding a trial run - if the anti-HST message works here, you can bet Layton will try and play it up as much as humanly possible during the next federal campaign.

20 Comments:

Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit is a CPC lock. I grew up there. My Dad said a very charismatic candidate can win (reference Bill Casey of course). But I don't think any of the current candidates are charismatic enough to make the difference yet.

There is a very good chance that the Liberals end up third in all four of these ridings which would be very embarrassing for them - especially in Quebec where SUPPOSEDLY they are poised to make gains. In Hochelaga, the NDP was not all that far behind the Liberals in the last election and their candidate never stopped campaigning and already has the riding plastered with posters. The Liberals still have no candidate. In Montmagny-L-Islet, the Tories were secnd last time and have a local mayor running. The Liberals have no candidate yet and apparently no one of any note wants to run for them.

Cumberland Colchester was held by the Liberals from 1993-1997 (only 12 years ago).

...as was every other Tory stronghold east of the Ontario/Manitoba border. If the Liberals were to adopt THAT mindset for what constitutes a "winnable seat," then I'd love to see their strategy for winning such "winnable seats" as Nepean-Carleton, Beauce, and New Brunswick Southwest.

As for the assertion that riding is a Casey one, not a Tory one...a simple Wiki search of the riding's electoral history makes Swiss cheese out of that argument. Ironically, in the only election that the Liberals managed to win the riding, Bill Casey was the Tory candidate.

I personally think there is a good chance that the Liberals can come in a strong third in New Westminister-Coquitlam, a good second in Cumberland Colchester, and second in Hochelaga. I'm not sure about Montmagny-Riviere-de-Loup... the Conservatives are very strong in this area.

But, it will be worth noting to everyone that when Dumont stepped down, a Liberal won his provincial riding fairly easily. Before that, it was a fairly nice Liberal stronghold provincially. And while provincial doesn't always necessarily transfer to federal, I think you'll see a strong Liberal candidate in that riding which might even take out the Conservative candidate.

With the latest Ontario split in the polls suggesting Conservatives will be elected along Eglinton Avenue, how the Liberals fair in Cumberland Colchester is the least of the party's problems. Time for Ignatieff to clean house.

According to Pundit's Guide, the Liberals have candidates in all four ridings now. In Montmagny-Riviere de Loup, they have a former mayor. I think the likelihood of a Liberal second - or maybe first - has just increased.