George Knows! Do You?

This past week we saw the hedge fund industry release their 13F filings which showed their holdings as of June 30th. The most famous and arguably the most successful hedge fund manager is George Soros. If you know about George Soros, you may or may not like his politics or his beliefs, I personally don’t. No matter what you think of the man, he does know how to make money on large outsized moves which have a tendency to happen in very compressed timeframes.

Going back to 1992, Mr. Soros made a very outsized bet against the British pound. He levered into a $10 billion short position and “won.” It has been said that “he broke the Bank of England” when they were forced to devalue. Soros made $1 billion on this adventure.

The latest 13F holdings report showed that Soros nearly doubled his short position betting heavily against U.S. equities. He also holds a large position in the ETF GLD and has outsized option positions betting on junior miners so it’s apparent he believes in the merit of gold. Is he right? Does he “know” something that we don’t know? He is positioned for a crash and will profit when one occurs. To answer the question, I believe yes, he probably does “know” for a fact what is coming to pass. He has the ability to speak with presidents, prime ministers and central bankers at will. Has he been told that the banking or financial system is already upside down or that a war is going to take place? My guess is probably yes, he knows and has been advised. Even if this is not the case, the man is smart and can see for himself…just as we can.

So is there a point to me writing about George Soros’ positioning himself for a crash? Well yes, because he has a very long term track record of being correct and correct in very big ways. If you are already positioned in this manner or some form of it, you now have something to strengthen your convictions. If you haven’t completely bought the math and logic pointing to a coming crash, this news might move you off the fence?

I also want to use Mr. Soros positioning with a hypothetical. Where would we be right now if Ukraine really did wipe out a Russian convoy? What if Russia does just start the engines and roll into Ukraine? That all “supposedly” happened this past Friday, today is Tuesday so we would have had 2 full trading days behind us. Again, hypothetically, what if the Dow Jones was down 700 points on Friday and another 1400 points on Monday, what would you do today? Would you buy the dip? Would you sell? Would you do nothing and just wait for the smoke to clear?

What about gold and silver? What if gold was up $90 on Friday and $230 on Monday? Would you be a buyer here at the new price of $1,600+ or would you wait and hope to be able to buy some on a pullback? Or would you hit the sell button and wipe your brow in relief that you could sell your gold at a breakeven from metal purchased in 2012? How would you react to $27 silver? Remember, this is what George Soros is positioned for, what do you think he would be doing?

I cannot answer any of the above questions because only you personally may have an idea as to what your thought process might be. I caution you however, in the heat of battle, what you believe now may be very very different from the reality when you are faced with it. My personal thought process is this, once the collapse starts it will be bigger and farther reaching than anything we have ever seen before. In fact, I believe what is coming will be 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2008 all wrapped up into one big toilet flush! We have more debt than ever before. True unemployment if calculated the way we used to is probably pushing levels seen at the depths of the depression. The same can be said about true inflation, we are probably running at levels or close to what we saw in 1980. Our Treasury has never before been this indebted and our vaults not this empty in over 100 years.

How is that for a mix? Yet the majority go on as if it’s business as usual and fool themselves into believing “I’ll do what I need to do when the time comes”. My point is this, if the stock market is down 10% or more in a couple of days or gold and silver up 10-20%, what will you do? Will you hesitate to sell stocks or buy metal (real money)? Human nature says that you in fact will hesitate.

I can foresee a meltdown/melt up in stocks and precious metals coming. I believe it is possible we could see in a one week to one month timeframe where stocks lose nearly 50% and metals double …AND THEN the markets close. I have said all along I believe we will see a bank/market holiday where everything closes and then will reopen at “new” levels. Human nature says you will not do anything in the tumultuous phase, this is called the “deer in the headlights” syndrome. Then, if I am correct, you won’t be able to do anything while the markets are closed …which leaves you with what alternative?

The “alternative” is to use your own common sense and logic to where we are now, where we are headed and what you need to do about it. The time is now, right NOW! Did you know last Thursday that WW III could have started the next day? Do you know when or what the spark will actually be? No, you don’t, I don’t and only a handful of insiders do. All I can say is that the U.S./NATO/West is hell bent on starting a war somewhere and soon to cover up the bankruptcy they’ve caused. Markets will do things that previously had been unthinkable. Trades will “clear,” or not. Metals will be available for delivery, or not. Markets will be open to transact business, or not. Please don’t wait for the “or not” phase, in my opinion it has an almost 100% probability of arriving.

Perhaps he believes that GLD will still rally, on a metals rally, before COMEX default/non-delivery/failure-to-do-something or before markets crack. I do also…but that’s just a guess. There are physical metals also in case.

MARK CHAMBERS
on August 19, 2014 at 6:11 pm

One big toilet flush, well put Bill,

Bill Holter
on August 19, 2014 at 6:33 pm

thanks Mark.

dishman
on August 19, 2014 at 6:25 pm

Great questions and I’m sure everyone has their own ideas and answers. I think the deer in the headlights analogy is a good one. As for me I went all in 50/50 gold and silver in 2010, no IRA or 401k just enough cash to live a simple life for 5 to 8 years. Actually been contemplating selling the condo and moving out of the county for awhile. That’s my plan and if I had to I could walk away from everything I have without much damage.

Bill Holter
on August 19, 2014 at 6:34 pm

good plan.

genuis8
on August 19, 2014 at 6:58 pm

Soros knows GLD is a scam for other people, but not for him and the bullion banks. I believe that Soros CAN REDEEM his GLD certificates for physical gold.

Here are the 2 scenarios:
1. Shit happens and GLD paper gold prices shoots up to the moon! Say $10,000/tr.oz. Then it drops to $200/tr.oz. COMEX stops all PM trading. COMEX can and will cash out all the paper gold holders at $200/tr.oz. Soros can and will redeem his physical gold.

2. The Shanghai Exchange (followed by Singapore Exchange) will start trading physical gold priced in Renminbi (RMB/CNY) or Chinese Yuan. The PBOC sets a floor price of physical gold at CNY 1 million/tr.oz. (USD 160,000). What is going to happen at COMEX? Everyone will try to redeem their paper for physical, but will be cashed out at a fallen price of $200. While Soros merrily redeems his paper for physical.

Bill Holter
on August 19, 2014 at 7:05 pm

could be.

RF
on August 20, 2014 at 12:11 am

Bill,

I have thought this way for several years and never dreamed the can could be kicked down the road this long, but it has.

I think 95%+ will wait until the “Oh Shit” moment and will be too late to proect their wealth. They will NEVER recover in their lifetime! Sad.

Bill Holter
on August 20, 2014 at 6:36 am

deer in the headlights.

Marco
on August 20, 2014 at 12:46 am

Soros has said that gold is the ultimate bubble. What he is saying is the last bubble to ignite and burst will be gold. There is a limit you must have to get physical silver from SLV and gold from GLD. Soros meets these levels as far as his pocket goes. I think SLV it has to be 50 million dollars minimum for you to get your silver. Goes to show the fraud in these markets. That means anyone who is under he limit will be had or settled in worthless paper.

Bill Holter
on August 20, 2014 at 6:37 am

yes.

nity
on August 20, 2014 at 7:22 am

Are you aware of FOFOA and his concept of Freegold, Bill? Some even say YOU are FOFOA..

Bill Holter
on August 20, 2014 at 9:17 am

yes I am …and no I am not. Actually, FOFOA has posted and critiqued some of my writings before.

jeremy
on August 20, 2014 at 8:22 am

The GLD prospectus contains many “risk factors” but to summarize there are two main reasons I would not buy into it (1. natural decay with the ETF due to paying expenses from existing gold supplies) (2. Gold is unallocated and there are several clauses about the potential for Custodian insolvency). Kind of reminds me of the disclaimer the COMEX added to reports back in late 2013….. “The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, the Commodity Exchange, Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This report is produced for information purposes only.”

From GLD Prospectus
“The amount of gold represented by the Shares will continue to be reduced during the life of the Trust
due to the sales of gold necessary to pay the Trust’s expenses irrespective of whether the trading
price of the Shares rises or falls in response to changes in the price of gold.”

“Gold held in the Trust’s unallocated gold account and any Authorized Participant’s unallocated gold
account will not be segregated from the Custodian’s assets. If the Custodian becomes insolvent, its
assets may not be adequate to satisfy a claim by the Trust or any Authorized Participant.”

Bill Holter
on August 20, 2014 at 9:19 am

yes, these “risks” pertain to you an me, Soros has a big enough sized position to demand delivery. You can bet when the time comes to demand delivery, he will be first in line.

Red
on August 20, 2014 at 11:46 am

The remark ” One Giant Toilet Flush” will go down in history. I wonder what the dude who discovered gun power said? Was it something like this is going to make who ever controls it the ruler of the world? Same way with US$. It just doesn’t work that way. There is always something lurking in the shadows!

Bill Holter
on August 20, 2014 at 11:52 am

all the way down in history.

Bob
on August 20, 2014 at 1:40 pm

Common sense tells me that you are right on target – “One big toilet
flush” OK. But When? I still can not shake to feeling that the government criminals and their accomplices can keep this economic charade going (forever?) as long as they can “print” and create unlimited wealth.

Bill Holter
on August 20, 2014 at 2:11 pm

forever? not even close, besides, forever is a loooong time.

Bey
on August 20, 2014 at 3:01 pm

Until some entity bigger than the JP Morgan/Comex/CME crime syndicate (maybe China?) is willing to overwhelm the rigged Comex metal prices with massive buying it seems unlikely that metal prices will go anywhere. Since it is in China’s interest to keep PM prices low until they’ve gorged on enough gold and silver to back the Yuan/Remnimbi as a gold-backed global reserve currency, I think we are stuck with depressed PM prices for at least another year or two.
I wish some whistleblower would spill the beans about the elite’s plans for war and the PMs and the dollar. It would be nice to get a little inside info for a change instead of endlessly guessing at what the elite puppet masters are planning to do to all of us next. Considering the number of concentration camps that FEMA is building all over the US, the answer may be clearer than we would like to believe. 🙂

Bill Holter
on August 20, 2014 at 3:16 pm

yes, “maybe China”? Please read my next piece “Kill Switch”.

blair
on August 21, 2014 at 4:43 am

u got it!
The scenario is right on.

But ever thought of ‘first strike’ possibilities against usa?

Unexpected rules. Like ebola, Maylasian Air take out by? (oh, we know who, right?), ISIS, and all over suprise chaos (planned?). The tormentor may have a suprise coming, too.

Bill Holter
on August 21, 2014 at 6:48 am

“no strike” is needed, we will blow up on our own if left alone.

Ed_B
on August 21, 2014 at 5:50 pm

We probably will. But is it in the nature of politicians to simply leave someone alone and let them self-destruct? I hold that it is not, that they simply HAVE to stir the pot from time to time. Waiting and keeping out from underfoot is simply not in their nature. Granted, the Chinese can probably do this. They are superb at taking the long view of things but then that is not difficult for a nation that sees anything that has happened in the past 800 years as “recent” history.

Bob
on August 21, 2014 at 11:23 am

What was it that you did not like about my posting to this article earlier this week? Why was it deleted?

Bill Holter
on August 21, 2014 at 11:29 am

I have approved every single comment and deleted nothing. I show a comment posted by you and approved for post at 1:40 yesterday, is this the post? If not, I did not receive it, please resend it.

Bob
on August 22, 2014 at 1:21 pm

Sorry Bill – I never noticed the “older comments” link – My email and your reply was there. I want to try again. I have read your daily articles ever since you signed on with MF and I know you don’t like the words “never” “always” “forever” and maybe even “until the cows come home”. I should not have used “forever”. Let me rephrase my question – it’s one I have had for a long time.
Do you think TPTB can maintain the economic charade as long as they can print unlimited amounts of money (create wealth)?
I value your thoughts on this.
Bob

Bill Holter
on August 22, 2014 at 1:42 pm

no problem Bob, the Fed if you’ll notice is now saying that QE will end, this is because they have taken too much “collateral” out of the Treasury market. They are being forced to stop QE because they are now too big of a player. Let’s see what happens, I plan to write about this shortly.

Bob
on August 22, 2014 at 8:00 pm

Many thanks Bill – Keep turning out your superior work

Bill Holter
on August 22, 2014 at 10:40 pm

I will, God willing and the creek don’t rise!

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