The Linemakers

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The Chargers (5-6 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) are among nine AFC teams within a game of the last wild-card spot in the conference. San Diego plays four of its final five games at home, including Sunday’s matchup vs. Cincinnati (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS).

The Bengals (7-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) have a 1.5-game lead in the AFC North. Like the Chargers, the bulk of Cincinnati’s remaining games are home. First, though, the Bengals must deal with the dangerous Chargers on their turf.

Line: Chargers -1 Total: 48.5.

Line movement and notes: Cincy opened the 1-point favorite at the LVH SuperBook and Wynn last Sunday, but early action in San Diego flipped the spread, and the Chargers became the chalk. San Diego -1 and -1.5 were being dealt around Las Vegas by later in the week.

Opening totals of 47.5 and 48 were bet upward, too.

History and trends*: The teams met in San Diego in 2012, with Cincinnati (pick ‘em) winning 20-13.

The Bengals have covered in the last three meetings between the clubs (2009, 2010, 2012).

The Chargers are 3-1 against the spread at Qualcomm Stadium in 2013. The Bengals are 2-4 straight-up and 1-4-1 against the number away from Cincinnati this season.

The Bengals are 3-1-1 ATS as underdogs this season.

*— Point spread/total data from seasons previous to 2013 is courtesy of Marc Lawrence’s 2013 Stat and Log Book.

Bengals outlook: When quarterback Andy Dalton plays well, the Bengals are one of the NFL’s more formidable teams. When he struggles, they can look ordinary.

From Oct. 13 through Oct. 27, Dalton threw 11 TDs and one pick in three games, all Bengals wins. In the next three games, he was intercepted eight times with just five TDs, and the Bengals won just one of those contests.

The Bengals have plenty of skill-position talent around Dalton. Wideout A.J. Green is one of the NFL’s best at his position, and the Bengals have numerous capable complementary targets, including tight end Jermaine Gresham and wideout Marvin Jones. The Bengals also have a nice one-two punch at running back with rookie Giovani Bernard and veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

The Bengals have had the bye week to address any of the issues that have ailed the passing game. If Dalton takes care of the ball, they should be able to sustain some drives against San Diego. Entering Week 13, the Chargers were allowing more yards per play (6.4) than any other defense, and they were 31st in yards per rush and pass allowed.

Chargers outlook: The Chargers have one of the NFL’s most potent passing attacks. Quarterback Philip Rivers (3,381 yards, 22 TDs, 70.8 completion percentage) has been returned to top form. Stalwart Tight end Antonio Gates, wideout Keenan Allen and running back Danny Woodhead are his primary targets. All three players have caught more than two-thirds of the passes thrown their way this season.

Tailback Ryan Mathews (721 yards, three TDs) is the Chargers’ primary ball carrier. He is dealing with a hamstring injury, but practiced Thursday and Friday and is listed as probable. Woodhead primarily contributes in the passing game; he’s caught all but nine of the 68 passes thrown to him this season. Veteran Ronnie Brown adds further depth.

While the Bengals’ defense has lost star defensive tackle Geno Atkins (knee) and cornerback Leon Hall (Achilles) to season-ending injuries, it is still a stout group. Tough vs. the run and pass, Cincinnati is surrendering just 4.6 yards per play. Linebacker Vontaze Burfict (NFL-high 118 tackles entering Week 13) is an impact player.

Weather: Mid 70s and sunny – isn't it always in San Diego? Check wunderground.com for an updated forecast?

The Linemakers’ lean: Our ratings have the Bengals being closer to a 4-point favorite in this spot, so being able to grab points is attractive. The Bengals have lost their past two road games and are 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS away from Cincinnati, but the much-traveled Chargers may be a little worn out from being on the road four of their last five games. The value is with Cincinnati here.