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CORRECTED-U.S. shutdown sends grain traders, farmers hunting for data

1/11/2019

(Corrects paragraph 19, to say satellite data is open-sourced,
not paid for by Descartes Labs)

By P.J. Huffstutter and Tom Polansek

CHICAGO, Jan 11 (Reuters) - When the U.S. Department of
Agriculture announced a slew of key farm reports would not be
released on Friday due to the partial government shutdown, the
phones at crop forecaster Gro Intelligence blew up.

The USDA was set to release its views on the projected size
of U.S. soybean stockpiles, among other data, following a
record-large domestic harvest and a trade war with China that
has slowed U.S. exports.

Commodity traders, economists, grain merchants and farmers
are anxious for crop updates as they work to project their
financial balance sheets and make spring planting decisions.

The shutdown, now in its third week, has rippled across the
already struggling U.S. farm economy ahead of President Donald
Trump's planned address at the American Farm Bureau conference
in Louisiana on Monday. Federal loan and farm aid applications
have also been delayed.

To fill the void on data, traders and farmers are relying on
private crop forecasters, satellite imagery firms and brokerages
offering analyses on trade and supplies. Some have been scouring
Twitter for tidbits on shifting weather patterns and rumors of
grain exports, but say it is difficult to replace the USDA.

"We're just doing the best we can, looking for as much
information as is available," said Brian Basting, economist for
Illinois-based broker Advance Trading, which provides customers
its own harvest and crop supply estimates.

"Everyone's got their own internal numbers but the USDA is
the most comprehensive data source."

Dan Henebry, an Illinois corn and soy farmer, said the
absence of USDA data was difficult.

"You delay all these reports and the market has no idea
where to go, other than trade guesses," Henebry said.

HUNT FOR NUMBERS

Gro Intelligence has been offering free access to its data
platform since Dec. 27, and plans to release worldwide
supply-demand crop forecasts on Friday. The company will keep
its platform open for the duration of the shutdown, Menker said.

So far, Menker said, the site has signed up executives from
the top 10 global agribusiness companies and major financial
institutions with credit exposure to U.S. agriculture.

Data firm Mercaris has gained new subscribers too, as it has
become the only source for organic commodity prices since the
halt in USDA reports, sales director Alex Heilman said. The
Maryland-based company is making an additional pricing report
available to users for free until the federal agency reopens.

Farmers Business Network (FBN), which collects harvest data
from 7,000 U.S. farmers, is set to release crop yield estimates
on Friday to members. The data is not as comprehensive as the
USDA's report would have been, though, said Kevin McNew, FBN's
chief economist.

"At the end of the day, we still need a benchmark," McNew
said. "For better or worse, USDA is the best benchmark we have."

While crops are not growing in North America during the
winter season, traders are still looking for updated information
from South America and other parts of the world where soy and
other crops are growing.

An increase in private companies using government-collected
satellite images to track farmed fields in recent years helps
shine a light on global crop conditions even while government
agencies are dark. The government's Landsat satellites continue
to collect images of the earth and other data.

Private companies such as Descartes Labs can still access
the open-sourced data and analyze it. The Santa Fe, New
Mexico-based company is among the crop forecasters that releases
its own production estimates based on its research and analyses
of government-collected data.

The public can normally see those images on the U.S.
Geological Survey's website, but it is not being updated during
the shutdown, according to a notice on the site.

And all technology can be problematic, said Steve Truitt,
government program manager for Descartes.

Data packets occasionally have shown up late during the
shutdown, or have not arrived, Truitt said. The government
staffers at USDA and the Interior Department who Descartes
usually calls either cannot be reached or are working without
pay, leading to awkward conversations.

The shutdown has also caused uncertainty within Descartes'
offices, which has several impacted government contracts. Staff
are not sure when invoices will be paid, Truitt said, or whether
delivery dates are being pushed back.
(Reporting by P.J. Huffstutter and Tom Polansek; Additional
reporting by Julie Ingwersen; Editing by Caroline Stauffer and
Rosalba O'Brien)

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