It is hard to argue with the idea that the old-crop cotton market has been on a bullish run of late. A look at a weekly close only chart shows the contract has rallied from a low of 90.45 (week of April 7) to a high weekly close this past week of 94.32. Comparing to what is normally seen this time of year, the five-year seasonal index (not shown) shows the contract tends to trend down from late February through late July.

But before we get extremely bullish the cotton market, we also need to add a little more noise ...