Electoral strategists for the new Unidos Podemos coalition formed last month between Spain’s new anti-austerity party Podemos and the legacy left-wing Izquierda Unida (IU, United Left) coalition say they are confident that the coalition’s strategic focus on Spain’s Mediterranean regional communities will combine with Andalucia and Madrid to deliver more votes than the Socialist party (PSOE) can muster and allow it to surpass the Socialists in upcoming second-round 26th June (26-J) general elections.

Campaign strategists for Unidos Podemos have told Spanish news media that Catalonia, Valencia and the Balearic Islands — where the coalition will be fielding candidates in tandem with regional coalitions En Comú Podem, Compromís and Més per Mallorca, respectively — will play a crucial role along with an expected surge in votes in the parties’ strongholds of Andalucia and Madrid to enable the coalition to not only surpass the PSOE in total votes nationwide, but also in the number of seats in Congress.

Virtually all recent voter opinion polls show the Unidos Podemos coalition overtaking the Socialists in the total number of votes nationwide. But, many analysts still believe the national vote count will not be enough to win Unidos Podemos more seats in Congress, with the total number of congressional seats to be decided by very close races expected in as few as 10 key provinces across the country, where just a handful of votes either way will decide the outcome.