Lisa Madigan builds 2-1 lead over Schmidt

January 28, 2002|By Rick Pearson, Tribune political reporter.

State Sen. Lisa Madigan holds a sizable early advantage over John Schmidt for the Democratic nomination for attorney general, and an overwhelming majority of prospective primary voters said her powerful political pedigree is irrelevant to them, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.

Still, 3 of every 10 voters said they are undecided in a contest that pits strong organizational backing for Madigan against Schmidt's independent support and personal bankroll.

The poll of 600 likely voters who said they would cast a ballot in the March 19 Democratic primary found 45 percent favored Madigan and 23 percent were for Schmidt. The survey has an error margin of 4 percentage points.

Among another 600 likely voters who said they would vote in the Republican primary for attorney general, DuPage County State's Atty. Joseph Birkett is favored by 25 percent, 12 percent said they favored Loop civil attorney Bob Coleman, and nearly 60 percent were undecided.

Aside from the contentious contest for the nomination for governor in both parties, the Democratic battle for attorney general has the highest profile among the races for statewide office. That is largely because Madigan's father is Michael Madigan, the powerful speaker of the Illinois House and state Democratic chairman who has been wielding his considerable clout to help her.

Lisa Madigan, 35, is just seven years out of law school and in her third year as a state senator from the North Side.

Schmidt, 58, finished third in the four-way Democratic primary for governor in 1998. The first chief of staff for Mayor Richard Daley, he was the third-ranking prosecutor in the Justice Department under former Atty. Gen. Janet Reno.

Schmidt's campaign has been aimed at contrasting his considerable legal experience with Madigan's slim resume as a way to overcome the considerable influence of her father.

But the poll found 67 percent of Democratic voters said it made no difference to them that Madigan's dad runs the Illinois House and the state Democratic party. The rest were split almost evenly between those who said her parentage made them feel more or less like voting for her.

Still, 71 percent of Democratic voters said they had heard of Madigan despite her brief tenure in politics, and a quarter of them had a favorable impression of her. That raises the question of whether she may be benefiting from recognition of the family name.

Almost half of the voters had heard of Schmidt, primarily because of his last bid for governor, but most said they do not know enough about him to have a favorable or unfavorable impression of him.

The poll found Madigan also got a slight boost from Daley's decision to endorse her. One-quarter of the voters said that as a result of Daley's move, they felt more like voting for her.

At the same time, 30 percent of Democratic primary voters said they were undecided in the race. That leaves open the possibility that an expensive and extensive war of television ads could decide the contest.

In the Republican race for attorney general, Birkett, in his fifth year as DuPage County prosecutor, and Coleman, a wealthy Loop trial attorney, were hardly known outside the six-county Chicago metropolitan area. Birkett was strongest in the collar counties, which include DuPage, where he had support from 35 percent of the voters compared with 10 percent for Coleman.

But almost half the likely voters in those areas were undecided in a contest that has largely gone unnoticed.

In March Republicans also will be selecting among three candidates to take on incumbent U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin. More than half of the likely primary voters said they are undecided in that contest.

The poll found state Rep. James Durkin of Westchester was supported by 21 percent of likely voters, North Aurora investment advisor and dairy owner James Oberweis was backed by 12 percent and Chicago attorney John Cox was the choice of 8 percent.

There is also a large number of undecided voters in the races for the lieutenant governor nominations. Voters in the Republican and Democratic primaries will separately nominate candidates for governor and lieutenant governor who will run as a team in November.

Three Democrats are running for the No. 2 spot, and one, former state Treasurer Patrick Quinn, has run numerous times for public office and enjoys a big advantage in name recognition. Even so, only 36 percent of likely Democrat voters said they back Quinn, less than the percentage of voters who said they are undecided.

The other candidates are Joyce Washington, a health-care administrator from Chicago, who was backed by 14 percent of Democrats surveyed, and Michael Kelleher from Downstate Normal, who lost a bid for Congress two years ago. Kelleher was the choice of 10 percent of Democratic voters.

Quinn, a self-styled populist who has a knack for getting publicity, was known by 81 percent of Democratic voters. Even so, only 27 percent said they viewed him favorably, while 13 percent did not and 41 percent said they had no opinion.