Mock Draft Analysis (4/22/2013)

Paul Bessire, General Manager

By Paul Bessire

Monday, April 22 at 5:30 PM ET

For our 254 pick, full seven round mock 2013 NFL Draft, Matt Richner and I split up the 32 teams in the league so that we each ended up with about half of the picks (I made 129 choices from the latter 15 teams in the first round and those without a first round pick; Matt had the first 17 teams and 125 selections). We have dubbed this the “objective” draft because we have focused on data-driven analysis and projections for each prospect that have guided us through the selection process in our attempt to remain as objective as possible.

I mention that we tried to remain as “objective as possible” since I understand that we still have two slightly differing approaches. I strictly utilized the same projection system focusing mostly on boxscore, combine and “measurable” information that I have implemented for our yearly football projections – I have to have answers about who these rookies are to get our pick, prediction and fantasy content “right” reason – to rank a draft board and pair those rankings with team needs and risk tolerance. (I’m very happy with previous iterations of this analysis.) While also strongly rooted in objective, data-driven analysis, Matt’s approach features positional benchmarks and comparisons that ground his analysis and then rankings that are further supported by film study and digging deeper into the numbers (such as evaluating quarterback release time and yards after significant contact).

Having each run at least 15 war rooms for a seven round draft (an incredibly interesting and, yes, fun exercise), Matt and I will each discuss our general strategy (needs, risk tolerance, depth, etc.) for each team. Please keep in mind that we are not trying to emulate specific front offices. In other words, we are not forcing ourselves to make the same mistakes that teams make (particularly those consistently picking early in the first round or without many picks). This is/was a project in what SHOULD happen and certainly not our expectation of what will happen. (For a thorough explanation of the process as well as the complete results, click here.)

Team Strategies

Dallas Cowboys – The Dallas Cowboys have a solid roster with strong skill position players, several promising pieces in the defensive front seven (if players like Sean Lee and Jay Ratliff can stay healthy) and an improving secondary. With its six picks (one in each of first six rounds), the team still needs to improve its interior offensive line and add depth for the inevitable injuries that have crippled the team in recent years (especially important while shifting to a base 4-3 on defense). Kentucky Guard Larry Warford in the second round as the third guard off the board is the most important player of this class, but I am very intrigued by interior pass rushing specialist Kawann Short DT, Purdue, who could either team with Ratliff or help to take his place and create havoc for opposing quarterbacks up the middle.

New York Giants – Though they do have eight picks, selecting 19th in every round (and then 47th with a compensatory pick in Round 7) will make it difficult for the New York Giants to stockpile elite talents. However, without too many glaring needs, I was able to take a couple chances with this roster (i.e. Margus Hunt, DE, SMU) later in the draft. There may not be a single player from this list who would be expected to start for New York as a rookie. Offensive tackle, pass rush and linebacker depth are the most necessary pieces to add to this roster. As long as New York keeps Alec Ogletree, Georgia inside and does not force him into an OLB or pass rush specialist, he would be expected to be a tackling machine for the Giants for many years. I’m also very intrigued with Cody Davis, S, Texas Tech, who did everything he was asked as a last line of defense for the Red Raiders defense, yet does not appear on many pundits’ draft boards.

Chicago Bears – Last year, the Chicago Bears graded as having the second-worst draft class in my rankings. With just five picks (and the same front office regime in place), it will be difficult to improve drastically with this season’s class. Despite three straight .500+ seasons, the Bears have a lot of holes (and even more on the horizon). A playmaking TE or WR to take attention off of Brandon Marshall was important to get early, while an inside linebacker for the future and offensive line help are crucial as well. Based on most “mock draft” expectations, Dan Molls, ILB, Toledo, could last well beyond the second round, meaning he could be value for a team like Chicago as a “Day Three” pick and will be one my favorites to follow heading into the season.

Cincinnati Bengals – According to this same analysis, the Cincinnati Bengals have had the best draft class in the NFL in back-to-back seasons (seriously, no one is more surprised by this than I am). With an early second round pick from the Carson Palmer-to-Oakland trade and few major roster issues, the Bengals can be a little bit more creative and, either trade up (unlikely) for elite talents, or stockpile prospects for future depth. The Bengals are one of the few teams in the league in need of a running back or center so Cincinnati got to cherry-pick the best running back on my board (Gio Bernard, UNC – the only RB likely worthy of a top 50 selection) and the second best center (Khaled Holmes, USC). Outside of those two players, keeping some players local (Reid Fragel, OT, Ohio State and Adrian Bushell, CB, Louisville) was just a fluke (especially since I really wanted to take Dan Giordano of UC at #251 yet had Sean Progar valued slightly higher), while my most intriguing pick was Chad Bumphis, WR, Mississippi State, who was incredibly inconsistent in an incredibly inconsistent passing game, yet has a higher ceiling than most WR prospects.

Minnesota Vikings – No team’s 2012 draft better resembled what I would have done with each pick better than Minnesota’s last year (Harrison Smith, Josh Robinson, Jarius Wright and Audie Cole were of the Predictalator’s relative favorites). The Vikings have the weakest roster of any team that made the postseason, so they will need a similar effort among the 11 picks in the 2013 NFL Draft. With so many needs, two first round picks and double-digit picks overall, best (non-running back) player overall was essentially the plan here. Manti Te’o, ILB, Notre Dame goes in the first round here (sorry McLovin) partially because Matt took Terrance Williams one pick earlier for St. Louis. There are a few high profile names – like Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee and Greg Reid, CB, Valdosta State (via Florida State) in this class that fall to a team like Minnesota more desperate to take a stab at “potential” at those positions (neither will likely actually still be on the board at these spots). The most promising value pick here, though, may be Will Davis, CB, the top prospect from a Utah State team that has produced several players – Robert Turbin, Bobby Wagner, Michael Smith, Kerwyn Williams – that my analysis has liked.

Indianapolis Colts – Like Minnesota, Indianapolis has a very flawed playoff roster. Unlike Minnesota, the Colts do not have many picks (just one in the top 85 and six overall), but they do have more specific needs with the right pieces in place on offense and major weaknesses throughout the defense. Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama, may not get as good of a grade as I gave Casey Hayward last season, but he is still the best cornerback on the board and an important piece for the Colts to add early. Indianapolis will really need to find success with its first pick. It would be difficult to do much better than Milliner.

Green Bay Packers – I recently tweeted about the fact that this would end up looking like a “typical” Ted Thompson draft in that it probably would not win the Day 1 or Day 2 draft press conference, but it would certainly help the team win on the field. I did not force the Green Bay draft to look like this, so I think that I am paying Thompson a great compliment by noting that (apologies to my father who still owns a “Fire Ted” t-shirt). Most of the teams picking this late in the draft are those that generally ignore the hype and draft players that they can use. Few are better at that than Green Bay. The Packers need a center, pass rush help, a playmaker at the running back position and offensive line depth. I was able to address all of those needs plus add a kicker to push/oust Mason Crosby and an intriguing quarterback prospect who can learn from one of the best (like what Ryan Mallett is doing behind Tom Brady in New England). Sio Moore is starting to generate quite a bit of buzz (as he should), but don’t sleep on his UConn teammate, Trevardo Williams, DE/OLB, who can also get to the quarterback. Also, as a fan, I would be excited to see what Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama would do for the Packers. Picking up short yardage situations has been an issue for Green Bay for a while so his blend of size, speed and talent is intriguing (though running back is not really a critical position to this or most teams).

Houston Texans – Though a play-making threat opposite Andre Johnson in the passing game would help, Houston’s only major issue over the last two seasons has been staying healthy. Depth at positions like linebacker, offensive line and pass rusher where depth is generally most critical is of the utmost importance to the Texans. Nine picks and no major weaknesses also allow the Texans to take chances on players like Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Dion Jordan, OLB/DE, Oregon and Eric Reid, S, LSU. (Yes, Jordan slips to the pick #95 based on what teams should do.). The most intriguing pick in this group is DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson. Hopkins was productive at Clemson, yet not spectacular and was overshadowed in the last two seasons by Sammy Watkins. He could have a similar role in Andre Johnson’s shadow for Houston. And, lastly, Mel Kiper Jr. recently noted that Sio Moore, LB, UConn, has great “computer numbers” and could be a steal on Day Two or Day Three. Others have noted Moore as a potential steal. Though I am not sure if Kiper is checking out our projections, Moore is the eleventh best overall player on my board. Like what we saw with Lavonte David last season, if everyone believes that Moore will be a steal after Round 1, why can’t he go in Round 1? He certainly should.

Denver Broncos – Going into the NFL Playoffs, Denver was our most likely Super Bowl Champion (and was 98.5% likely to host an AFC Championship Game before Joe Flacco’s last minute bomb to Jacoby Jones). That strong of a roster upgraded from Brandon Stokley to Wes Welker and remained intact otherwise on offense. Defensively, letting Elvis Dumervil go leaves a need opposite Von Miller as a pass rusher, while depth is an issue up the middle (DT, ILB, S) as well. With the exception of the value Denver gets with the first quarterback off the board – Geno Smith, West Virginia as 37 year old Peyton Manning’s future successor at pick #58 – all of the Broncos’ picks were defensive. Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State may be the most intriguing player to me in this entire draft. At 6’5”, 205 lbs., he was still strongly recruited as a linebacker coming out of Taft High School in Cincinnati, but could not qualify academically. Two years dominating junior college football (pass rushing is one of the few skills that translates to the pro level regardless of the level of competition) and sixty added pounds later, he puts up phenomenal per-snap numbers behind Bjoern Werner and Brandon Jenkins at Florida State. Then, when Carradine got his chance to start this season (due to a Jenkins injury), he absolutely dominated in just about every way a defensive lineman can… only to tear his ACL in November. This week, 135 days later, he has already run a 4.7 40 yard dash. Carradine ranks as a top five overall prospect on my board. If he can get and stay healthy, he could be a very good pro (and exactly what the Broncos want as an additional pass rush threat to Von Miller). It’s not a deep draft class for Denver, but, if the draft proceeded as we outlined, few franchises would be more positively impacted in the short and long term with the top two selections.

New England – The Patriots oddly have some major needs – wide receiver, defense – and few picks to help the team. Keenan Allen, WR, Cal, the 20th wide receiver taken, is not a first round prospect and will never likely be a “#1” WR on his team, but he does add some size and depth at a need position. The other four picks I made are on defense. Terry Hawthorne, CB, Illinois is a player I cannot figure out. His measurables and productivity compare favorably to the best cornerbacks in the draft and none of the weaknesses I have read from reports seem too damning. Still, few people have him anywhere near where he falls on my board – tied with Dee Milliner for the best cornerback grade this year.

Atlanta Falcons – It’s not a bad roster, but the Falcons did not profile as a team that should have earned the top seed in the conference nor garnered interest as a legitimate Super Bowl contender last season. They completely lacked a pass rush and gave up too many big plays. Quarterback, wide receiver and the left side of the offensive line are pretty well set. Everything else could use upgrading. Of Atlanta’s 11 picks, I focused on the pass rush with the top three selections and then addressed the other deficiencies (even adding some long-term projects at wide receiver and quarterback). Chris Jones, DT, Bowling Green was an “impact play” (Matt Richner term that I love) machine in the MAC. At just 6’1” and 293 lbs., teams are not likely in love with his size (lack of height) for a player that is more of a pass rusher than a run stuffer. To me, his size may actually make him more versatile and valuable because the skill is clearly there.

San Francisco 49ers – My favorite draft. Is it likely that San Francisco keeps all 15 of its picks? Probably not. Still, with the best roster in the NFL, the most picks in this draft and no slam dunk prospect to trade up to get, San Francisco is in a position unlike any I have ever seen. The 49ers can literally take 15 fliers on high risk, high reward guys to compete. If two of them blossom into productive players in the short-term and three of them become starters in the long-term, the 49ers will have already won this draft. There are so many directions San Francisco’s draft can head, yet it’s almost impossible to screw this up. Considering a series of really smart moves from the current, very well run front office put the team in this position, I can’t imagine they will make many mistakes. San Francisco is the place for players like Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU, Brandon Williams, DT, Missouri Southern, Brian Schwenke, C, Cal, Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU, Knile Davis, RB, Arkansas, Vance McDonald, TE, Rice, Quinn Sharp, K/P/KOS and Marquise Goodwin, WR, Texas. Those are “boom of bust,” “high potential” players that scouts and media are clamoring over now (causing them to rise up draft boards and increase their likelihoods of being known as “busts”). The 49ers don’t need any specific pick to hit to improve the team. Two of those guys may be really good someday, but I would hate to need them.

While all of those picks are intriguing, my favorite player in this draft class is Cooper Taylor, S, Richmond. Taylor has ridiculous size (6’5, 228 lbs.), off-the-charts measurables (4.49 and 4.58 40 times, 36.5 inch vert, 23 reps at 225 in the bench press and 10’7” broad jump at pro day) and, unlike similar freakish safeties like Taylor Mays, elite production (Freshman All-American at Georgia Tech, 2012 FCS First Team All-American at Richmond, 174 tackles, seven interceptions, 6.5 tackles-for-loss and 16 pass break-ups). Taylor certainly has question marks regarding his health (Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome) and age (23), but he is a perfect fit for a team that does not need him, but has the picks to gamble and the coaching staff to get the most out of him.

Baltimore Ravens – While Joe Flacco was seeking and signing a record-setting contract, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Anquan Boldin and even 2012 starters Dannell Ellerbe, Bernard Pollard, Paul Kruger, Matt Birk, Bryant McKinnie and Cary Williams moved on. The identity of this team has certainly changed. Adding Elvis Dumervil, Michael Huff and others does not hurt, but that still leaves A LOT of holes that need to be filled on this roster. Inside linebacker, safety, wide receiver and offensive line depth are significant areas of need. Having the 32nd pick in most rounds does not put Baltimore in a good spot, but they have acquired 12 total picks in this draft and can aid the roster. Khaseem Greene, ILB, Rutgers may be a better fit as a weak-side linebacker in a 4-3 (he profiles similar to Lavonte David from 2012), but he still looks like a great asset for a team like Baltimore. The rest of this draft is not too exciting – just stock-piling solid prospects (almost the opposite of what San Francisco gets to do with its bevy of selections). It is notable to me that Markell Rice, S, American International (Ray’s brother) and Mike Glennon, QB, NC State (who is often compared to Joe Flacco due to his height and arm strength) end up on Baltimore’s roster (not to mention both starting CBs from Kansas State).

Washington Redskins – The Redskins are now one of three teams without a first round pick (Tampa Bay is now in that mix with Seattle as well) after selling out for Robert Griffin III last season. With just two picks in the top 115 and seven selections overall, the Redskins may need to target just a couple of positions of need. I specifically grabbed two safeties and two offensive lineman. That being said, the most interesting pick to me is Marquess Wilson, WR, Washington State. A consensus top 50 prospect going into this season, Wilson disappeared for the most part this season because he did not gel with Mike Leach. It’s rarely a good sign that a player cannot get along with his coach (especially when his team disallows him from participating in its pro day), but there were promising signs in previous seasons. Top 50 likely would have always been too high, but Wilson may not be in a position where even a system like this has him undervalued a bit because of the uncertainty with who he is right now. A somewhat similar scenario happened with Mike Williams after he left Syracuse and fell to the fourth round in the 2010 draft only to have a standout rookie season and solid career thus far. RGIII could use some weapons. Washington can’t really gamble much with its picks, yet pick #154 could be a good place to find a future passing target.

Seattle Seahawks – As the last team to make its first pick, the Seattle Seahawks front office may not even show up to the office on Thursday. On Saturday though, no team will be busier. Once we got passed the first round, I seemed like I was always on the clock with the 49ers or Seahawks. That was fun because those teams have the two best rosters (or at least the two rosters with the fewest weaknesses) in football right now so, for the most part, I got to get a little creative and take the highest ceiling player available with each selection. Offensive line depth, particularly on the interior, was an early focus for me, but that was it in terms of team needs. Among the eight Day Three selections that I made for Seattle, the most interesting to me is Terence Garvin, S/LB, West Virginia. He is a difficult prospect to project because he plays a position in West Virginia’s 3-3-5, the “spur,” that does not really exist in the NFL. That being said, a 6’2” 220 lbs. safety/linebacker hybrid who tallied 11.5 tackles for loss in 2012 sounds right up Pete Carroll’s alley. That is one of the few no-brainer fits that I found (outside of San Francisco’s high risk approach) after the first two rounds. In general, this draft class is littered with versatility.

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