Paul Ryan Drops A Major Clue That He Won't Run For President In 2016

Yesterday, Rep. Paul Ryan said that he plans to seek the
chairmanship of the House Ways and Means committee,
according to the Wall Street Journal. This is a big
hint that he isn't planning on running for president in 2016.

The Republican Party has a non-binding standard that a
representative can only serve as the ranking member or chairman
of a committee for six consecutive years. Leadership will make
exceptions in certain cases, such as with Ryan himself and his
chairmanship of the House Budget Committee. Ryan became ranking
member of the committee in 2007 then ascended to chairman when
Republicans took back the House in 2011. He was already granted a
fourth term as the leading Republican on the committee during
this Congress. He won't get another one.

That has fueled speculation that Ryan will seek the chairmanship
of a different committee, in particular the House Ways and Means
Committee which is responsible for tax reform. Current chairman
Rep. Dave Camp faces term-limit restrictions there.

Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee is a powerful position,
but also one creates a host of enemies if Ryan attempts to pass
anything consequential as he likely will. It's hard to forge any
major deal with tax reform and entitlements and not infuriate
people along the way. It's not a good position on which to base a
presidential run.

In addition, Republican leaders will likely want assurances from
Ryan that he intends to stay chairman for more than one term.
Ryan knows this as well. That's another indication that Ryan does
not plan on running for president in 2016.

However, Ryan is not certain to earn the gavel of the committee.
He has to jump two senior members, Rep. Kevin Brady and Rep. Sam
Johnson, to do so. If Republican leadership instead choose one of
them, that could change Ryan's decision to forego a presidential
run. But right now, his desire to become Ways and Means chairman
is a major hint that his presidential ambitions are on hold.