Q2 2012 Suburban Virginia, Virginia Retail Submarket Trends

The vacancy, rent, and net absorption data cited for individual submarkets is for community-neighborhood center space only. Northern Virginia is an affluent and increasingly densely populated suburban area, although there is some street retail in the City of Alexandria and in what were rural towns at one time.

Arlington/Alexandria

Reis reports a second quarter 2012 vacancy rate of 7.5% for 2.0 million square feet of anchor space in the Arlington/Alexandria submarket, and 5.2% for 3.0 million square feet non-anchor space. The average asking rent for anchor space is $22.19 psf and $32.63 psf for non-anchor space, both the highest among the submarkets.

The overall vacancy rate fell 30 basis points over the quarter to 6.1%, up 10 basis points from one year earlier. The average asking rent was unchanged for the quarter, while the average effective rent, at $28.67 psf, was also unchanged. Net absorption was positive 15,000 square feet for the quarter.

Reis forecasts some improvement on the rental front, with asking and effective rents increasing by 0.4% and 0.3% by year-end. Overall vacancy is expected to finish 2012 at 6.0%.

Loudoun County

For its Loudoun County submarket, Reis reports a vacancy rate of 5.5% for 3.1 million square feet of anchor space, and 12.7% for 3.4 million square feet of non-anchor space, making it the highest vacancy rate for non-anchor space in the market.

The average asking rent is $14.87 psf for anchor space, and $25.53 psf for non-anchor space. The average asking rent and the average effective rent both increased 1.7% over the quarter, the latter to $22.27 psf. The year-over-year gains are 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.

The overall vacancy rate fell 40 basis points over the quarter to finish at 9.3%. The rate is up 110 basis points from one year earlier despite 103,000 square feet of net absorption in the second quarter.

The 150,000-square-foot Moorefield Station mixed-use project and the 180,000-square-foot Goose Creek Village Community center, both under construction, are in Loudoun County.

Prince William County

In the 9.6-million-square-foot Prince William County submarket, Reis reports a second quarter vacancy rate of 4.9% for 5.4 million square feet of anchor space, and 11.2% for 4.3 million square feet of non-anchor space. Net absorption was negative 27,000 square feet in the first quarter and positive 32,000 square feet in the second quarter.

The average asking rent is $13.09 psf for anchor space and $20.58 psf for non-anchor space. The overall vacancy rate finished the second quarter of 2012 at 7.7% down 30 basis points for the quarter and 20 year-over-year. The average asking rent increased 1.5% in the quarter and the average effective rent increased 1.6%, to $17.82 psf.

Reis reports two projects under construction in Prince William County: the Promenade at Virginia Gateway, at Wellington and Linton Hall Road, a 300,000-square-foot Power Center, and Stonebridge at Potomac Town Center, a 550,000-square-foot mixed use project on Smoketown Road.

Southeast Fairfax County

For its Southeast Fairfax County submarket, Reis reports a vacancy rate of 3.5% for 2.8 million square feet of anchor space, and 6.0% for 2.9 million square feet non-anchor space. The average asking rent is $18.63 psf for anchor space, and $29.46 psf for non-anchor space.

The overall vacancy rate increased 10 basis points to 4.8% in the quarter. The rate is down 20 basis points year-over-year. The average asking rent increased 0.7% in the quarter as did the average effective rent, to $26.36 psf.

Suburban Fairfax County

Reis reports a second quarter 2012 vacancy rate of 4.3% for 6.4 million square feet of anchor space, and 7.8% for 6.4 million square feet of non-anchor space for its Suburban Fairfax County submarket. The 12.8 million square feet of total community-neighborhood center space places it first among the submarkets.

The average asking rent is $18.23 psf for anchor space and $31.76 psf for non-anchor space.

The overall vacancy rate increased 40 basis points to 6.0% in the second quarter of 2012. The submarket finished the first quarter with 8,000 square feet of positive net absorption, but followed with 48,000 square feet on the negative side in the second quarter. The average asking rent and the average effective rent, at $28.29 psf, increased by 0.7% during the quarter. These rates are up 1.4% over 12 months.