A Few Minutes with Feinberg: What's Getting Nominated for Best Picture? (Video)

THR's awards analyst believes that there are five locks and that the other top-tier contenders fall into one of two categories: crowd-pleasers and passion-inducers.

Thanks for checking out the eleventh installment of A Few Minutes With Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter’s weekly video series in which I spend -- you guessed it -- a few minutes dissecting the race to the Oscars. This week, I'm coming to you from the historic Fox lot in Century City, the home of 20th Century Fox and Fox Searchlight and base camp for their respective Oscar campaigns.

As we near the Dec. 17 start of Oscar nomination voting, every studio lot -- as well as the offices of a lot of publicity firms and awards strategists that they employ -- are cramming to do everything possible to get their films and talent in front of voters. That being the case, I thought it might be fun/valuable to survey the best picture field and identify which contenders look like locks and which are still on the bubble. (Needless to say, a lot can still change between now and the close of Oscar nomination voting Jan. 3.)

My theory right now is that there are four locks for a best picture Oscar nomination: Lincoln, Argo, Les Miserables, and Silver Linings Playbook. Since I taped this video, Zero Dark Thirty has essentially swept the critics' awards and resonated overall better than I had expected, so I might add that to the list, as well. As for the rest of the top-tier contenders? I think they might all be placed into one of two categories: crowd-pleasers (movies that everyone likes) and passion-inducers (movies that some people love and some people hate). In the video above, I discuss why I think that the eventual list of best picture nominees will include a few entries from each list.