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I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (1): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

2) Cupid Childs-2B (2): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896, and 1897.

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

4) Jim Bunning-P (n/e): Not as good as Drysdale, but my conservative (pun intended :-) analysis places him here because he was close enough to Double D. Best ML pitcher for 1957. Best AL pitcher for 1960.

5) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (5): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

6) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (6): Why Kell, but not Elliott? He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

7) Pie Traynor-3B (7): Best white third baseman of his time (though Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

8) Alejandro Oms-CF (8): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

9) Minnie Minoso-LF/3B (9): Probably the best ML left fielder of the fifties, though only because Teddy Ballgame was in Korea and Stan the Man played considerably at other positions. Best ML left fielder for 1956 and 1959. Best AL of 1953.

10) Burleigh Grimes-P (10): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

11) Mickey Welch-P (11): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

12) Bucky Walters-P (12): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

13) George Sisler-1B (13): Great player at his peak, but unquestionably a mediocre (at best) player after 1922, which didn't add much to his overall value. Best AL first baseman for 1916 and 1922. Best ML first baseman for 1917, 1919, and 1920 (very close in 1916 and 1922).</b>

14) Vic Willis-P (14): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

15) Dobie Moore-SS (15): Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. I give him credit for his pre-NeL seasons. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

Redding, Mendez, Sewell, and Kiner all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

explanation for players not on my ballot
Jim Bunning a poor man’s Don Drysdale (who didn‘t make my ballot)
Dick Redding, Dobie Moore and Jose Mendez barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Minnie Minoso would have been on my ballot with the addition of a few good seasons which his Negroe Leaudge stats seem to show he lacked

Banks and Bunning both on the ballot but not top of it; the rest below the consideration zone. Both last year’s electees were well off my ballot, so the glut has intensified.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 40 “years” ago.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax.

4. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3-5-3-3-4-3-
3-4-3-3-5-4-4-4-5-6-4-4) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too. Undervalued by sabermetricians.

5. (N/A) Ernie Banks Not as good as Beckley, not as good as Sisler, but quite a long career and the SS half of it pushes his equivalent OPS+ to about 130. 2583 hits; TB+BB/PA .526, TB+BB/Outs .753. not teeribly distinguished for a post-deadball player.

6. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

7. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

9. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

10. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

11. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

12. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13-N/A-15-14-13-12-13-11-11) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

13. (N/A-11-14-N/A-15-13-14-12-12) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32. Only 193-143, and only 2961 IP but 134 ERA+, although lots of UER. Back on ballot to replace Griffith after almost 40 years – he fell off it in 1934.

14. (N/A-14-15-14-13) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. Best season 1944, however.

15. Jim Bunning More career than Pierce and Drysdale, but not quite as good – thus slightly below where Drysdale was, about level with Koufax. 224-184 and 3760 IP are both good, but 114 ERA+ less impressive.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-10-12-N/A-15-N/A-15-14-15-N/A-15-14) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

17. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

18. (N/A) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

19. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

20. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

21. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

22. Minnie Minoso. Even if you add extra years, he’s a shorter career than Oms, and not as good as Johnson. 1963 ML hits at OPS+ of 130, TB+BB/PA .498 , TB+BB/Outs .759

1. Ernie Banks, SS (n/e). I could have made the case for Redding or Mendez over Banks but I think that’s looking for flaws that aren’t there. Banks had a great three-year peak from 1958 to ’60, picking up black ink in slugging percentage, total bases, home runs and RBIs. Plus he had some nice shoulder seasons, getting grey ink from 1955 to 1968. Oh, and he has the best career value of any batter on this ballot.

2. Cannonball Dick Redding, P (1). The best pitcher on the ballot, according to his MLEs. I also like that his own winning percentage was better than his team’s by 100 points.

4. Nellie Fox, 2B (4). Fox was an outstanding defensive second basemen- winning three gold gloves- and an ideal top of the line-up hitter- routinely landing in top ten lists for Runs (7 times), AVG (8), Hits (10) and Triples (11). Plus he has a long prime during which he was acknowledged as the best at his position, picking up MVP votes in 10 seasons and being named an All-Star 12 times.

5. Quincy Trouppe, C (5). I think he’s the best catcher on the ballot with more great years than anybody else at his position. Not that Mackey was a bad pick, but Trouppe would have been the better one.

6. Billy Pierce, P (6). The best Major League pitcher on the ballot. An All-Star 7 times between 1953 and 1961, TSN named him AL Pitcher of the Year for 1956 and 1957 so he’s got both the peak and the prime. During that prime, Pierce also made the adjustment from being a strikeout pitcher- leading the league in Ks in 1953 and Ks per 9 IP in ’53 and ’55- to an innings eater –leading the league in Complete Games from 1956-’58- demonstrating that he’s smart as well as talented.

7. Minnie Minoso, OF (7). He was an All-Star as soon as he entered the Major Leagues, getting named to the actual team 7 times and picking up MVP votes 8 times. He was routinely among the league leaders, finishing in the top ten eight or nine times each for AVG, OBP, Runs, Hits, Total Bases, 2Bs and Stolen Bases. A little bit of Negro League credit at the beginning of his career gives him the added boost to offset the lack of black ink.

8. Hugh Duffy, OF (8). I’m a big fan of what guys actually do and Duffy’s actual numbers are very impressive. There’s a reason why he was considered one of the best players of the 1890s. He had peak years in 1890, ’91, ’94 and ’97 and was an All-Star caliber player from 1890 to ’97.

9. Ernie Lombardi, C (9). Lombardi was a solid All-Star 8 times between 1936 and 1945 and the MVP in 1938. He was top ten in the league 5 times in Home Runs, 7 times in AVG and 8 times in SLG.

10. George Sisler, 1B (10). His peak isn't quite as long as Duffy's as Sisler was only among the very best for a three-year period from 1920-22. However, he had a longer prime, picking up top ten slots in average, stolen bases, total bases and hits 8, 9, 9 and 11 times. Also, the career numbers aren't as bad as the Hall of Merit discussion led me to believe.

11. Mickey Welch, P (12). Mickey Welch is back on my ballot after dropping off last year. Sure, he was never among the very best in the game and he lacks the black ink that I tend to admire. But he was among the very good for such a long time that he has the best career numbers of anyone on the ballot.

12. Jim Bunning, P (n/e). Career-wise, he looks like a poor version of Drysdale. His winning percentage, comparative ERA and WHIP are all slightly worse. However, Bunning spread out his black ink a little more than Drysdale did giving him a seemingly stronger peak and prime. Splitting the difference, Bunning looks like Drysdale’s equal so I’m dropping him into the same slot, behind Mickey Welch.

13. Ken Boyer, 3B (15). One outstanding season in 1964 was good enough for an MVP. Otherwise, Boyer had a solid prime from 1956 to 1964 picking up top ten finishes routinely in AVG, OBP, SLG, runs, hits, total bases, doubles, triples, home runs and RBIs. Easily the best at his underrepresented position.

14. Ralph Kiner OF (13). Led the league in Home Runs 7 straight seasons and finished fifth one more time. But Kiner was more than just a one-dimensional player. Fans of both OPS and Adjusted OPS+ should be impressed by his league-leading numbers in those categories in 1947, ’49 and ’51.

15. Alejandro Oms, OF (14). I’ve had Oms tied to Kiner for a number of years and really need to get around to evaluating him on his own merits. For now, Oms keeps his bottom of the ballot spot.

Necessary disclosures:Joe Sewell: Sure, he didn’t strike out a lot and he stayed healthy, but he just didn’t do enough when he actually put the ball into play to get onto my ballot. Dobie Moore: I find Moore hard to assess. He had the great peak, but by playing for a military team at the beginning of his career and the early end to his career due to getting shot in a domestic dispute, there’s just too much guesswork for me to feel comfortable giving him a ballot spot at this time.

7. John McGraw Yes, he was injured, yes, he didn’t have a long career, but when he played, he played exceptionally well.

8. Roger Bresnahan Best available major league catcher, by a good margin.

9. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter. Was he Koufax-good though?

10. George Van Haltren Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

11. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

12. Cupid Childs Less of a hitter than Doyle, but not by much.

13. Minnie Minoso In the Slaughter mold.

14. George Sisler Once he is elected, who will be our most surprising omission?

15. Jim Bunnins Probably the 5th or 6th best pitcher of the 50’s-60’s, so he probably should make it, but I am being conservative, ironically just like Bunning’s political leanings. The politics have nothing to do with his ballot placement, though.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

16. Ben Taylor

17. Alejandro Oms

18. Rube Waddell

19. Billy Pierce

20. Jake Beckley

Missing top 10

Joe Sewell – A year or two more would make him an easy choice. He is creeping up my backlog. He and I are members of the same college fraternity.

Ralph Kiner – War credit would bring him to Bob Johnson. Unfortunately, I don’t give him much. Keller leapfrogs Kiner with war credit.

After the questioning I took this week, I think I expanded on how I make my rankings. Like one of the other members of the electorate, I do not put much stock in WS, or WARP stats. Interesting toys which can be used for grouping purposes, but they do not represent an accurate measure for value (merit) for my money. My consideration set at this time consists in around 15 (sometimes 1 more, sometimes 1 less) for each position, and 30 (or so) pitchers. I start with rate stats. Specifically OPS+ and ERA+ where applicable. I start with their career numbers and then devolve to individual seasons. I focus on the peak (ink - black heavier than grey, high mark numbers, awards, AS games and the ilk) and then look to career, essentially, how much of the non-peak was still prime. This allows me to differentiate true career players from bang and crash types.
Fielding is not highly considered outside of the "glove positions (SS, C, 2B, CF). Otherwise, only for leverage, or as a tie-breaker.
For pitchers, I also look at the "stuff" score and DERA in order to account for things which may look odd otherwise, but not as a huge consideration tool.
Ernie Banks sails right into my PHoM - as I joined the project late, I will accept all ballots before my entry as if they were my own, and accept their electees into my own PHoM - along with Robin Roberts.
Jim Bunning does not score too highly for me (34).
I tweaked the bottom end of my ballot (10-13) after a new look at those players.
Of other new players, Dean Chance and Jim Maloney made the very bottom of my consideration set. Somewhere between 130-150 of my backlog for 1977 eligibles. That's it.

1)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
2)Ernie Banks - His career had two halves. If he quit after 1968 instead of 1971, he might have topped Duffy. In any case, his peak, prime and career still have more than enough for an elect me position and a quick entry into my PHoM. (PHOM)
3)Rube Waddell - Nothing in his resume tells me he wasn't a dominant pitcher (PHOM)
4)Gavvy Cravath - Very possibly the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates. Likely the best hitter in that group, too. (PHOM)
5)Joe Sewell (PHOM)
6)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him behind only Waddell as far as pitchers go in my eyes (PHOM)
((6a) Robin Roberts - outrageous ink. Where's the ERA+?)) (PHOM)
7)George Sisler - He actually dropped a bit on my ballot when reconsidering his down years. Peak keeps him up here. Highly comparable with Banks. Main difference is that Banks did his good work while at SS and Sisler at 1B. I've heard mixed reports about the defense of both of them, being either a little better than average to very good+. I can take each with a grain of salt and be happy with these placements.
((7a)Cool Papa Bell))
8)Jose Mendez
((8a)Willard Brown - I had been underestimating him severely. His reputation enhances his already wonderful numbers.))
9)Ben Taylor - Reevaluation gets him on the ballot. Can't find the peak, but a better prime and glove than Beckley. This ranking may be an understatement.
10)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. An exceptional hitter and fielder.
11)Ralph Kiner - So much black ink, so little time. Super Peak!
12)Jake Beckley - Always excellent. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. NOt sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
13)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove.
14)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher
((14a)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))
15)Minnie Minoso - still very good. Maybe a wee bit overrated.
16)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good.
((16a)Don Drysdale - Not yet, DD))
17)Nellie Fox - Low OPS+, but he is an exception to that measurement. SLG is negligible for him, he did quite well with the rest
18)Ken Boyer - so close. Still my highest ranking 3B. At least for now.
19)Wally Berger - super-underrated
20)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
21)Ernie Lombardi - deense was below average, but not quite horrible
22)Roger Bresnahan
23)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
24)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
25)Chuck Klein
((25a)Joe Gordon - neither here nor there. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
26)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges
27)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
28)Pete Browning
29)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - I'd be happier if I knew what he was doing for those two years
30)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit
31)Cupid Childs
32)Phil Rizzuto
33)Charlie Keller - 2nd all time in extra credit
34)Jim Bunning - Not convinced. He had merits, but not enough for balloting.
35)John McGraw
36)Jimmy Ryan
37)Alejandro Oms
38)Luke Easter
39)Johnny Evers
40)Pete Reiser
41)George Kell
42)Bobby Veach
43)Bob Elliott
44)Bucky Walters
45)Ray Chapman - I think his case deserves some credit.
46)Fred Dunlap
47)Jim Bottomley
48)Bob Johnson
49)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
50)Dobie Moore
51)Tony Lazerri
52)Dolf Camilli
53)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
54)Johnny Pesky
55)Hippo Vaughn
56)Tip O'Neill
57)Rocky Colavito
58)Denny Lyons
59)Cecil Travis - holds the all-time record for most war credit. 4 years is a lot of credit.
60)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
61)Lon Warneke
62)Don Newcombe
63)Jack Clements
64)Cy Williams
65)Roger Maris
66)Pie Traynor
67)Frank Chance
68)Kiki Cuyler
69)Red Schoendienst
70)John Clapp
71)Larry Doyle
72)Bill Joyce
73)Benny Kauff
74)Bill Nicholson
75)Urban Shocker

1) Ernie Banks - comfortably ahead of all other eligibles without war credit or Ngl credit. The value of this project for me is learning that Banks fought in the war and played quite a bit in the Negro Leagues.

2) Billy Pierce - to put Bunning ahead I would have to be convinced the 60s NL was a substantially better league than the 50s AL including the Yankees. I'm not convinced.
3) Bob Johnson - this placement is without minor league credit. Good defensive value is part of his appeal
4) Ralph Kiner - from 1947 to 1952 Kiner was 1st, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 1st and 6th in OPS. 1946 and 53-55 were very good years also. No MLEs were required to get those numbers. Manny Ramirez is Kiner without the back injury.
5) Jim Bunning - debuts in the top 5 for me, similar to Pierce, Ford and Drysdale but not as good as any of them.
6) Ken Boyer - like Pierce and Bunning, Boyer was a 7 time all star. Among 3B gloves Boyer may be in the top 5 (Robinson, Schmidt, Rolen, Traynor) and his bat was closer to Santo than it was to Robinson.

7) Charlie Keller - slight dropoff from the bunched 2-6 to 7 but I'm a little stingy with war credit.
8) Tommy Bridges - I'm seeing something in Bridges and Bob Johnson that everyone else has dismissed. Bridges is my favorite war era pitcher and we are a little light.
9) Bob Elliott - Great hitting 3B, I was penalizing him too much for the war seasons.
10) Virgil Trucks - Teammate of Bridges on the 1945 title team. Did the war cost Detroit a pennant?
11) Quincy Trouppe - Mexican league star, seems to be the type of player who contributed outside the lines though that doesn't affect his placement here.
12) Dutch Leonard - Another top war era pitcher
13) Joe Sewell - Top major league SS of his era and more seasons contributing than Dobie Moore.
14) Minnie Minoso - brought his NgL credit back to one year. A good OF with a good glove. Similar to Bob Johnson but one fewer strong season and not as high of a peak.
15) Jake Beckley - fills out the end of my ballot again. I like him better than Sisler and both have the "represent all eras" argument in their favor.
16-21) Dick Bartell, Chuck Klein, Dobie Moore, Gavy Cravath, Rube Waddell, Jose Mendez

1977 ballot, cast by a college sohopomore. Since I wasn't really much of a fan until about 1967, even the newly eligible aren't people I was following at their peaks.

1. Ernie Banks (new) I really don't know where he fits in comparison to the likes of Vaughan, Cronin, and Boudreau. Good thing I don't have to figure that out - the only question this week is whether he's the best currently eligible candidate, and he is that.2. Billy Pierce (4, 4, 5, 1, 1) A close call between Pierce and Bunning. Pierce was a little more effective per inning; Bunning had a few more innings. I'll rank them this way.3. Jim Bunning (new) A second-rank pitcher for an election with no clear first-rank pitchers.4. Ralph Kiner (5, 3, 4, 3, 2) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.5. Larry Doyle (2, 5, 6, 4, 3) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.6. José Méndez (10, 2, 3, 2, 4) Could easily be as good as Koufax.7. Quincy Trouppe (8, 6, 7, 5, 5) As with all Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork.8. George Van Haltren (3, 7, 8, 6, 6) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.9. Bucky Walters (19, 8, 9, 8, 7) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's. We elected Lemon - why not Walters?10. Joe Sewell (7, 10, 11, 10, 8) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.11. Dick Redding (12, 12, 13, 12, 9) A career-value pitching candidate.12. Orestes Miñoso (6, 9, 10, 9, 10) This presumes at least a little pre-MLB value.13. Jake Beckley (13, 13, 14, 13, 11) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.14. Bob Elliott (14, 14, 15, 14, 12) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.15. Tommy Bridges (24, 23, 23, 22, 13) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
16. Ken Boyer (---, 15, 14) Compared to Elliott, less bat, more glove. The issue I haven't come to grips with yet, and I don't think the electorate has come to grips with: the NL of the 50's-60's was supposed to be a very high quality league, better than the AL at the same time. Part of the reason for that is some not-yet-eligible monster candidates like Mays, Aaron, and Robinson. But if it really was the better league, that should boost some marginal candidates into electability - who were they?
17. Hugh Duffy (17, 15, 16, 16, 15) Nothing new to say after all these years.
18. Mickey Vernon (15, 16, 17, 17, 16) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
19. Nellie Fox (18, 19, 19, 19, 18) I'll be a supporter of Ozzie Smith when the time comes, and Fox has some of the same virtues. Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
20. Phil Rizzuto (21, 20, 20, 20, 19) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
21. Cupid Childs (22, 21, 21, 20, 20) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
22. Edd Roush (24, 24, 24, 24, 22) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
23. George Sisler (26, 25, 25, 25, 23) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
24. Vern Stephens (27, 26, 26, 26, 24)
25. Dobie Moore (29, 27, 27, 27, 25) Short career, high peak.
26. Bob Johnson (30, 28, 28, 28, 26)
27. Rocky Colavito (--, 29, 29, 27) I like Colavito's actual major league career a hair better than Johnson's, including a better peak. Johnson stays ahead of Colavito in recognition of his minor league value. A big hitter at a "bat" position is a tremendously valuable asset. As much as I enjoyed what was unconventional about the '85 and '87 "Whiteyball" Cardinals, they needed Jack Clark in the middle of that lineup. So these guys are valuable - but historically, there have been quite a few of them. This is about where I'd rank Sam Thompson were he still eligible (yes, I consider Thompson's election a mistake.) Chuck Klein isn't too far away.
28. Frank Chance (-, 30, 30, 30, 28)
29. Rube Waddell (-, 30, --, 29)
30. Jimmy Ryan (----, 30)

(1) Banks (new)--Doesn't tower over this group, but has the best 7-year prime with the likely exception of Keller and career value that beats all-but 7 or 8 eligible guys. Not a Ripken or a Vaughan; more like Cronin or Boudreau, but they weren't slouches.

(2)Keller (2nd)--One notch better for his prime than guys like Moore, Sisler, Kiner, and Berger.

(3) Roush (1st)--Solid CF who always ranked in the top 10 in his league offensively. Solid prime; solid career.

(4) Minoso (3rd)--Has the prime; negro league credit gives him the career. Ranks very highly among 1950s position players.

(5) Mendez (5th)--Looks like Bob Lemon or Waddell with a brain and a bat.

(6) Sewell (6th)--Bat towered over his position contemporaries and glove was damn good too.

(7) Duffy (4th)--Still not sure how many of those extra WS to credit.

(8) Leach (8th)--Lots of All-Star seasons by every metric.

(9) Van Haltren (10th)--Very good for a very long time.

(10) Moore (9th)--Peak wasn't quite as high as I would have guessed. Position bonus gets him ahead of Sisler.

(11) Cravath (unranked/in the 40s)--My gradual reconsideration of all old candidates shows that I dropped the ball with him. Great--though scattered prime--and 300-plus WS.

(12) Pierce (12th)--Ranks strongly among 1950s ptichers.

(13) Sisler (11th)--Half way between Keller and Kiner; very good peak when war is adjusted for.

(14) Trouppe (13th)--Best catcher on ballot.

(15) Oms (14th(--Fully qualified but era and position are well-represented.

Redding's numbers don't impress me and Kiner is one more 30-plus WS season short.

1. Ernie Banks - Maybe not the monster he is often thought as, but still head and shoulders above the backlog.

2. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worse teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team, pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

3. George Sisler - Even during his "bad" years he could still get a ton of hits. Kiner like peak with some solid years to tack on for career voters.

4. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career.

5. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

6. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

7. Nellie Fox - very close to Sewell in my rankings

8. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

9. Gavvy Cravath - I looked long and hard at him, and decided I really needed to put more stock into his minor league years. With proper minor league credit now given, Gavvy has enough career to merit a spot on my ballot.

10. George Van Haltren - I welcome George back to my ballot after a long time away.

11. Jim Bunning - He and Pierce are actually much closer on my ballot than the #11 and #20 rankings would imply.

12. Pie Traynor - I can understand why everyone didn't fall head over heals for him, but I didn't imagine that he would recieve so little support.

13. Minnie Minoso - Initially thought he'd crack my top 10, then reading some discussion I didn't think he'd be top 30, but I've finally settled on him here. He still has plenty of room to move on my ballot though. Spots 14-20 are all easily exchangeable on my ballot.

14. Roger Bresnahan - if he had only caught more games, I'd have him a lot higher.

15. Wally Schang - Lots of extra credit for being a durable catcher.

16. Dick Redding - Finally has some room to move into my top 20.

17. Ernie Lombardi - I've said it before, I'll say it again, I love catchers, especially one with good career value. Ernie even has some peak to mix in. He didn't strike out, he hit for average, and SOMEHOW he got 27 triples in his career!

18. Bucky Walters - Been iffy on him for awhile. He has been more of a favorite for the peak voters, and not so much for the career voters, but another look at him shows me that he had a bit more career value than I was giving him credit for. Moving him up this high on my ballot is going to help Kiner out on mine too when there is room.

19. Ralph Kiner - Kiner finally breaks into the lower ranks of my ballot. If he could've had 2 more good (not even necassarily great) years, he could've moved up to the top 3 or 4 spots on my ballot. As is, not enough career value for me.

20. Billy Pierce - been thinking about putting him on since the last ballot, and now he finally has room to make it.

BTW, will this balloting be held over an extra day due to the Monday holiday?

We haven't done it in the past. It's a good incentive to get the ballot in early ;-)

OTOH, past precendent is not a strong reason to be a hard-liner here.

4) Jim Bunning-P (n/e): Not as good as Drysdale, but my conservative (pun intended :-) analysis places him here because he was close enough to Double D. Best ML pitcher for 1957. Best AL pitcher for 1960.

John, shouldn't you list appearances in the top 3 or 4 pitchers of a season to give pitchers an equal chance at black ink?

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and unsupported Peak doesn't get too far in my system.

1) E. BANKS -- Overrated by history but still the best player on this thin ballot. Prime 1955-61. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1955, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960; arguably the Best Player in MLB 1959-60 (WARP). Other star seasons include 1956 and 1961.

10) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886.

Camilo Pascual made my top 50 (just barely). He had a surprisingly good peak by WARP1. Victimized by some bad defenses in Washington before and after the Minnesota years; would be more fondly remembered if the Senators/Twins had won a pennant during his prime, 1958-1963.

He's got some good markers. Five seasons (1957, 1960, 1965, 1966, 1967) as one of the top 4 pitchers in MLB that season. Plus another 4 seasons that are either All-Star quality or close to it (within 10%). As with Early Wynn, those who can't get past the dross are missing him. As the majors get more and more competitive, it gets harder for a pitcher to be consistently good year after year.

1. Banks, Ernie – Despite spending more games at 1b than shortstop, where he stood out, and besides the fact WS hates his defense at shortstop, he takes the week’s top spot. That’s no doubt where he would be on reputation alone. If I evaluated him solely as a shortstop, he would have the top spot by a landslide. As a first baseman, he would be at the bottom of my ballot. Blending the two, he nudges out Oms.

2. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

3. Bunning, Jim – A player I knew very little about before doing the analysis, except for his appalling political views. He posted a pretty good W-L record, despite his team and some lack of run support. Basically a very good all-around pitcher for a substantial length of time.

4. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

5. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

6. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

7. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

8. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

9. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Wilson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

10. Clarkson, Bus –I don’t know where to put him. If he was born in 1915, it is easier for me to swallow that he couldn’t get out of the minors from ’50-’56. But if he was only 32 in 1950 (normally the back end of a peak), I’ve got some problems with presuming a HoM career when he couldn’t even make a major league roster at age 32. This is a shaky placement, and if he gets closer to election, I'm going to have to look closer.

11. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not 100% convinced it was quite HoM level.

12. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon. It might be a mistake to have him behind Wilson, Clarkson and Minoso.

13. Ryan, Jimmy – Still better than Van Haltren, even in the Zombie League.

15. Pierce, Billy – I don’t think he is HoM-worthy, but I think he’s close enough to be proud of.

Required Disclosure(s):

Redding, Dick – I was in the downtown library this week and glanced through five or six books about the Negro Leagues. They focused primarily on what a character Redding was. Doesn’t sound like a HoMer to me.

Mendez, Jose – It probably won’t surprise anyone that I’ve got Mendez way off the ballot, given how much I differ from the electorate on Cool Papa and Redding, though he’s not in never never land like Redding. I’m committed to giving him another look.

Moore, Dobie – I’ve never been sure where to place him. Data seems particularly sketchy. I value other Negro Leaguers higher than these three.

1. ss Ernie Banks (nc)
2. sp Jose Mendez (1, 4, 5)—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.
3. 2b Cupid Childs (2, 5, 6)—One of the best infielders of the 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
4. cf Alejandro Oms (3, 6, 7)—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career (340 WS).
5. sp Bucky Walters (4, 7, 8)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Ferrell but less peak value, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
6. cf Hugh Duffy (6, 3, 4)—Excellent peak puts Duffy among the top of the outfield glut, and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value isn’t too shabby, either.
7. ss Dobie Moore (8, 2, 3)—Drops a bit with Chris Cobb’s new WS estimates; however, since his candidacy is based on his stellar peak (as well as pre-1920 credit) his numbers are underrated due to regression. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
8. sp Dizzy Dean (9, 10, 11)—Only five full seasons, but what seasons those were—the best peak among eligible pitching candidates.
9. rf Gavy Cravath (10, 14, 15)—“He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy.” Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, obviously, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.
10. rf Buzz Arlett (11, ob)—Similarly strong peak and poor defensive value to Cravath, he provided definite value to an independent PCL in a time when Branch Rickey and TV hadn’t completely corrupted the minors, when talented ballplayers could still win notoriety for their accomplishments without stepping foot in the majors.
11. sp Rube Waddell (12, ob)—While a real good player at his peak, his character created interesting issues for his teams, evidenced by his disappointing IP totals during that time and his UERA totals over his career.
12. 2b Larry Doyle (13, ob)—When I started, I saw Doyle and Childs joined at the hip; in the intervening “years,” Doyle has a fallen as I’ve come to accept WARP’s rating of his defense and the NL of the teens. Despite that, still a strong candidate, providing a solid bat on some killer Giants clubs.
13. c Roger Bresnahan (14, ob)—The best catcher eligible (excluding Quincy Trouppe, who I have yet to get a handle on for a variety of reasons), I find it to be the second hardest to compare to others. Bresnahan’s play in the outfield further obfuscates the issue, but his solid peak and 126 OPS+ ties him in my mind to Laughing Larry.
14. sp Jim Bunning (nc)—As others have noted, very similar to Pierce. Bunning accrued more IP, but a lower ERA+; both uber-stats show similar career and peak value between the two, Bunning’s best season being just a smidge better.
15. sp Billy Pierce (15, 13, 14)—Takes Eppa Rixey’s old spot on my ballot; while never great (according to the uber-stats), was always solid. Rixey had more career value, but Pierce’s peak was better, squeezing more into a shorter career. Very similar to Whitey Ford, and is also underrated due to usage patterns.

Required Disclosures:
16. lf Ralph Kiner (ob)—Excellent peak, the best among borderline outfielders, but his career is too short considering the number of outfielders with strong peaks and longer careers. He’s neck and neck with Charlie Keller.
22. 1b George Sisler (ob, 12, 13)—Roush and Sisler were the two biggest casualties of my latest re-evaluation. The top 8 spots among 1b/of are very close, IMO. In the end, while their peaks are quite good, they don't quite equal the other 6 contenders.
25. sp Dick Redding (ob)—A pre-1920s Negro League candidate about whom little is known. Going by the translations on his thread, Cannonball would be much lower then this; I give him a boost considering the nature of the numbers in his era, but he is still primarily a career candidate.
27. lf Minnie Minoso (ob)—Negro League years help him stand out from a large crowd very good outfield candidates, but his five-year peak isn't enough IMO to push him into ballot territory. Hovers around 30 with Jimmy Ryan.
29. ss Joe Sewell (ob)—Had a solid prime, dominating in an era of weak shortstops; however, his peak isn't quite as strong as I'd like and his best competition was banned from the majors. Similar in value to Bob Elliott and Ken Boyer according to WS.

I'll comment on Bunning: I just can’t see the support for Bunning. There are more than a handful of guys eligible in the next several years who have equivalent stats, many of whom won’t get a sniff from the electorate. Bunning is a poor man’s Drysdale, and a middle-income man’s Pierce. How is he better than Pierce (off ballot for me) or Bridges or Waddell or a handful of other completely overlooked candidates? Or Tiant or Hunter? Doesn't it mean something that it is hard to separate these careers from one another?

I have instituted a Grade ranking of my candidates. As and Bs would make my version of a Smaller Hall. B minuses and C plusses are borderline. Cs and below, including the 4 on my ballot, are not worthy.

I have Sewell, Minoso and Moore at 19, 21 and 22. Duffy is at 28. Duffy and Sewell were on my ballot in the teens. The other two never have been.

1. Ernie Banks (A) – it is not even close. I liked it when there was time that there were only 9 back-to-back MVP winners and they each played a different position. Now there are 11 I believe, though one could qualify as a DH and the last could qualify as drug aided.

2. Mickey Welch (A) – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

3. Burleigh Grimes (B+) – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

4. Jake Beckley (B+) -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving.

5. Dick Redding (B) – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

6. Nellie Fox (B) -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

7. George Sisler (B) – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

8. Ralph Kiner (B-)– He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+.

9. Rube Waddell (B-) -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

11. Addie Joss (C+) – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. Joe D thinks he was one of the Hall of Fame’s 5 worst pitching selections. I disagree.

12. Roger Bresnahan (C) – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

13. Jose Mendez (C) – His hitting makes a difference for me. Looks like he was the 7th best blackball pitcher. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Bunning, Pierce, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin, the best of whom is at 23 on my ballot.

14. Jimmy Ryan ( C) – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining. I used to have Duffy close to Ryan and GVH and then decided he was not as worthy. I may reconsider that.

1. Ernie Banks (new, PHoM 1977)—Comps are Dobie Moore for peak/prime and George Sisler for career, and since they were #1 and #4 last year, that’s not a bad thing

2. Dobie Moore (1 last year-1-3, PHoM 1942)—Still a very mighty peak

3. Ralph Kiner (2-2-7, PHoM 1964)—moved up in recent re-eval., based on the same old virtues—not just those 7 HR titles, but all those BB, too

4. Rube Waddell (3-3-5, PHoM 1932)—second highest ERA+ available, and it turns out after all these years that his UER were not outside the norm

5. George Sisler (4-4-4, PHoM 1938)—when people say his peak or prime wasn’t long enough, the truth is that nobody on this ballot peaks for any longer

6. Larry Doyle (5-5-21, PHoM 1975)—15 years of 15+ WS, I don’t see another eligible “glove” who did that, plus same OPS+ as Edd Roush (5 points more than Hugh Duffy). As for his defense, who ya gonna believe—Clay Davenport or John McGraw.

7. Charley Jones (7-7-16, PHoM 1921)—I have added in 2 blacklist years’ worth of MLEs. He made my PHoM without them, but moves up with…

8. Addie Joss (6-6-8, PHoM 1967)—best ERA+ available

9. Pete Browning (8-8-6, PHoM 1961)—essentially equivalent to Charley Jones if you give Jones the two blacklist years

11. Vic Willis (12-12-x, PHoM 1977)—how did I miss this guy? Oh, yeah, he came eligible the same year as Waddell and didn’t quite measure up. Great peak (though not consecutive) and a huge workhorse. Check him out!

Early vote this year, in advance of the holiday. And just as well, since there are four guys in the Top 10 I didn’t vote for, and two more I did but about whom I’m not exactly thrilled. So let’s commemorate my lack of agreement.

<u>1977 Ballot</u>
1)Ernest Banks – “Mr. Cub”
Consistently voted “Most Likely to Play Two.” Great career with fine prime numbers. Comp scores come up with Eddie Mathews, which is weird. (It’s not a very high comp, but it’s still unexpected.) I’m not sure there’s a more back-handed compliment than “Mr. Cub.” I mean, don’t get me wrong. We love him here in the Windy City. But it’s like calling someone “Mr. Bengal.”17th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 27th on SABR Top 100. 30th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 38th on Sporting News Top 100. 77th on Bill James Top 100. 53rd on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
I’m trying to write up a Keltner list, but it’s harder than it looks. I can tell you that he’s consistently the best pitcher on his team (even trading off with Dazzy Vance), and a few times the best player. So that’s one of the things he’s got going for him. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
Why, George! What are you still doing here? 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4)Saturnino Orestes Armas Minoso Arrieta – “Minnie”
The reconsideration of his Negro League performance helped a little, but another look at his major league numbers helped even more. Eight times in the Top 10 in AL Win Shares is very impressive. Definitely the best left fielder on the ballot. 85th on Bill James Top 100.
5)Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
I have him at the head of a pack of very good second basemen, including recent inductees Doerr and Gordon. Slight edge for six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores. It’s close, though.
6)Edd J Roush
Long career, good peaks...all the things I admire in a candidate. Really no fuss at all with Edd.
7)Hugh Duffy
Fun fact: Duffy hasn’t finished in the Top 10 since 1932. A very peaky centerfielder, which is a tough sell when we have so many who are consistently great. Kind of in the Sisler mode, although the peak is a lot sharper. I do like me some center fielders.
8)Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
9)Kenton Lloyd Boyer
Certainly one of the best third baseman we’ve seen on the ballot. Mathews signaled the vanguard of a new age for third basemen, and Boyer follows his lead.
10)Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Benefits from corrected numbers. Always struck me as similar to Clark Griffith. 22nd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
11)Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but Rice is hovering on the tail end of my ballot, so I’m okay backing Leach. Stronger prime sets him apart, plus he excelled at two positions, which is interesting.
12)Carl William Mays
Carl has bounced on and off my ballot over the years, which I will assume is Ray Chapman’s karmic revenge. A gentler career arc than that of Ferrell or Lemon, higher highs than Willis. Frankly, I think the only reason more people voted for Lemon is the black ink. Mays is higher in career WS, peak, WS, prime WS, and they’re practically even in gray ink.
13)James Paul David Bunning
Fine pitcher, and will deservedly be remembered this Father’s Day. Career totals are extremely close to Mays and Mendez, justifying his position here. Many have also noted the similarities to Drysdale, whom I ranked higher than this, but not much. 80th on Maury Allen Top 100. One of Time Magazine’s 5 Worst Senators of 2006. (This is not relevant to his placement on this ballot, but is a gratuitous cheap shot I could not resist.)
14)José de la Caridad Mendez y Baez
I took a closer look at the leading Negro League pitchers on the ballot (it’s how I discovered the faulty math), and my concern about the pure peak-ness of Mendez’ career has me worried anew. He’s still got a place on the ballot. Just not as high as before. 4th Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll (as a utility player, not pitcher).
15)Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
Hanging on for another year, ahead of a cluster of very talented players who are just not quite there. Great career numbers, and consistently the best position player on a very bad team for a very long time. Also impressive owing to the unusually late start to his career. The utter flatness of his career arc is Beckley-esque, which I’m not thrilled about.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>Ralph McPherran Kiner
An outstanding prime, but almost nothing else. The best of a group of outfielders with sensational peaks that are off my ballot, including Klein, Berger, and Keller. 59th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 89th on SABR Top 100. 90th on Sporting News Top 100. 96th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 46th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100.Joseph Wheeler Sewell
I go back and forth between Sewell and Vern Stephens, and I keep changing my mind as to who is better. In any event, they’re positioned just off my ballot. Ritter & Honig Top 100.Walter Moore – “Dobie”
Strong similarities to Hughie Jennings, whose candidacy I ultimately did not endorse. Possibly would have won some MVPs in a more just universe (or at least not gotten shot), but the short career he had in this life does not get my vote.Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
I tend towards career numbers, but Beckley’s are so without peak that I’m hard pressed to call him a great. He actually manages to have less of a peak than Sam Rice. I like Jake, and I wouldn’t complain about his election, but I just don’t think he’s earned a spot on the ballot.

I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and some WARP thrown in as well. For pitchers, it’s PRAA, with some WS and ERA+ adjustments for good measure. And some other stuff.

Somewhat to my surprise, both of the leading new eligibles, Banks and Bunning, make my ballot and my pHOM. Also decided to give Cravath a little more MiL credit than I had been, after the discussions on him last week; that didn’t get him to the ballot but did bump him up in the backlog.

1977 ballot:

1. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). Simply the best eligible pitcher out there, IMO—elite enough to beat out Banks for the top spot.

2. Ernie Banks (pHOM 1977). Don’t care about the career of Sisler part, but the peak of Moore—in fact, a slightly better peak—is enough to get him to the top portion of my ballot. He’d be #1 if his defense had been stellar.

4. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). I’ve read all the pro and con arguments, and I have to say I keep ending up in the same place on Duffy: He belongs, at least to anyone with as much of a peak emphasis as I have.

5. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Just enough to satisfy my (admittedly small) minimum requirements. Fantastic peak, even if it’s not quite what we thought before the new MLEs. This is the lowest I’ve had Moore in years!

6. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). Another infielder with a great peak, from an underrepresented era.

7. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

8. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). He’s risen with each reevaluation I’ve done. It’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it.

9. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Perhaps not quite as good as I’d thought for several elections there. Still, impressive by any of my favorite measures.

10. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but the best of the remaining 3Bs, for my taste. And, hey, from that underrepresented era again!

11. Jim Bunning (pHOM 1977). Remarkably similar to Willis overall, right down to the lousy hitting. Seems better than Drysdale to me. And yes, I too am not fond of his Senate career or his recent re-election campaign, but that has no bearing here.

12. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). All the hard evidence makes him the best of the remaining eligible catchers.

13. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). A peak I just couldn’t argue around anymore.

2. Pete Browning (1)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. Keep hope alive! (1927)

11. Jim Bunning (-)--He’s a Drysdale clone, and so I’m putting him where Drysdale was a couple years ago.

12. Carl Mays (10)--Big peak, but a bit more career value than Ferrell. (1968)

13. Ken Boyer (12)--The borderline infielders are a mess. Elliott, Boyer, Sewell, Doyle, Gordon, Fox, Sisler, they are all essentially the same, all are about equally deserving of being in or out of the HOM. But the nature of the project requires us to exaggerate the very small differences between them all and put them in some kind of rank order. This isn’t nearly the exact science we sometimes like to think it is. Anyway, I think Boyer’s defense trumps Elliott’s bat. (1975)

14. Joe Sewell (13)--From almost elected to weirdly underrated, but he'll get in eventually. (1976)

15. Edd Roush (14)--Starts a run of three solid all-around outfielders. Roush’s just a little bit better than each of them though.

1977 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 1 per 60 PA adjusted for league quality, or RCAP adjusted for defense and timeline. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes (or value above average) higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1-Ernie Banks {new}
Overrated but well qualified. An easy #1 this week.
2-Joe Sewell (2) [8]
Great hitter for a shortstop, AND very good defense. We will ignore Alan Trammell and Barry Larkin?
3-Bucky Walters (3) [20]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too, played in strong league. His perceived great peak in ‘39-‘40 is aided by the Reds’ gold glove defense.
4-Jake Beckley (5) [10]
Very fine career, quite understated by Win Shares.
5-John McGraw (6) [34]
Great RCAP. The HoM is short of 3Bmen and especially 1890s infielders. He was a brilliant tactician as well.
6-Ken Boyer (7) [13]
Good stick, fine glove, durable, tough league. Could’ve used another productive year or two. League quality puts him well above Elliot.
7-George Van Haltren (8) [12]
Quite a career; 380 WS when translated to a full schedule.
8-Billy Pierce (9) [15]
Similar to Bucky Walters. Good value out of the bullpen helps him some.
9-Minnie Minoso (10) [5]
Looks an awful lot like Bob Johnson.
10-Frank Chance (11) [only 2 votes last election; me & KJOK]
Every ballot I howl at the moon.
11-Cupid Childs (13) [14]
Being an 1890s infielder, short career not held much against him.
12-Bob Johnson (12) [26]
Very good long prime. Underrated by ultra peak-ists and ultra career-ists.
13-Ralph Kiner (14) [7]
As a kid I listened to Kiner’s Korner, a wrap-up after Mets games. Never really knew who he was.
14-Charlie Keller (off) [31]
Monster bat that Pete Browning’s supporters ought to fall in love with! Compares well with Sisler; just not as famous.
15-Dick Redding (15) [6]
A HoF vote for Cannonball would have dotted the “i”s on his resume.

Jim Bunning – he could've made my ballot; maybe I’m being overly cautious in his first year of eligibility. A few annoying weaknesses (fewer wins than expected, not a hitter, ’64 collapse) combine to drop him lower than his fine pure pitching record would indicate. I am surprised at the level of anger over his Senate career, considering how many other of our elected officials have said and done really stupid things. I guess we’re lucky that other famous politicians (can anyone say ‘Chappaquiddick’?) aren’t on the ballot!

My #10 and #13 were elected. Ernie Banks and Jim Bunning look strong for 1977. Clemente and Wilhelm figure to dominate the balloting in 1978. Willie Mays is unanimous in 1979, while Luis Aparicio and Frank Howard take on the backlog.

1) Ernie Banks – I don’t know that he’s truly a top-100 player, but he’s the only guy on this ballot you would include in that discussion.

2) George Van Haltren (1,1,3) – In three years, 1972 to 1975, he went from the #1 unelected player to #10. Why? Now in his 69th year eligible. His day may come, eventually. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton2—443 G. Van Haltren

3) George Sisler (2,3,5) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This should eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This may not be the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

4) Tommy Leach (3,2,4) – Holding steady, finished mid-20’s for the fifth straight year. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

5) Edd Roush (4,4,6) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Trying to avoid Lost Cause status, he added three bottom-ballot votes last year, with his best standing since 1952 when he was still a Shiny New Toy. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat8—.864 E. Roush

6) Minnie Minoso (5,5,7) - A kind of player I like more than most voters, a durable, five-tool talent. By win shares, he’s very similar to Hack and Grich. Long prime, fine peak (3 years +30 WS, adjusted to 162 G). Career total 356 AWS. I figure he gets an extra three full years of credit (~60 WS), not simply due to the years he was denied opportunity, but also due to the retardant effects his skin color and his war service had on his development. YMMV.

7) Roger Bresnahan (6,7,9) – Only about eight voters have much regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett

8) Jimmy Ryan (7,8,10) – As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith. To those 18 voters who had GVH in their top ten last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-19181—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

12) Dobie Moore (12,13,15) – Might be as good as Vaughan; if there is one overlooked Negro leaguer that still haunts me it’s him. I don’t think the HOF seriously considered his pre NeL play.

13) Charlie Keller (14,15,--) - Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too.

15) Ralph Kiner (--,--,--) – First time on ballot. I’ve never seen him on any “questionable hall of famers” survey. NBJHBA rates him ~#171. Like Keller, a long, high prime. Could move up.

Top tenners off ballot: Redding, Mendez. As you may know, I have always been a bit skeptical of NeLers translated numbers; I am not so quick to assume superstardom from them as most voters. Duffy was a regular on my ballot until 30 years ago and may return someday. I’ve never voted for Sewell, the “position-era domination” argument doesn’t do much for me.

Bunning is close, but not clearly better than anyone else on this ballot; better for borderline newbies to run the gauntlet for a few elections. I tend to go along with the “poor man’s Drysdale” argument.

1977 Ballot
Other than Banks and Bunning, Pascual is the only new eligible to come near my consideration set, but he’s all the way down around #102.

1) Ernie Banks
With only a little pre-MLB credit I have him as the #29 position player thus far, between Delahanty and Santop. His peak Win Shares numbers are in the Enos Slaughter range, but his top 5 WARP3 seasons add up to 66.4, which is along the lines of Arky Vaughan. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

2) Pete Browning
Besides Banks, Browning is the only player I have who ranks well above what we’ve established as the HoM in/out line.

3) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (Career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

4) Ken Boyer
53.3 WARP3 in top 5 seasons is best out there among hitters not named Banks.

5) Dick Redding6) Jose Mendez
These two are nearly inseparable. The shape of their careers is different, but I see the cumulative value as equivalent.

7) Joe Sewell
His top 5 WARP come in a close second to Boyer (52.4), but his 5-yr. consecutive Win Shares are a little below Boyer (and Gordon). Overall, both uberstats have them as very similar.

8) Charley Jones
Seems like poor man’s Browning, or perhaps an old-timer’s Ralph Kiner. Blackball year credit gets him on the ballot.

9) Bucky Walters
Similar to Trout, but thanks to 300 extra IP and an OPS+ advantage of 13 points Bucky wins out.

10) Charlie Keller
Tied with Kiner for best top 3 seasons in Win Shares. I guess it’s just the extra war credit I’m giving Keller that gets him a spot above Kiner.

11) Jim Bunning
Solidly lands in the backlog…I think he deserves to be HoMer eventually, but I’d like to rather see a guy who’s been hanging around for a while make it instead.

13) Dobie Moore
Perhaps the Black Hughie Jennings, but I think he’s got a more career value so he makes my ballot (Jennings would be ranked in the 40s).

14) Minnie Minoso
Modest peak and with enough career value (w/pre-MLB credit) to get on the ballot and stay there.

15) Ralph Kiner—149 OPS+ is pretty impressive, but his Relatively short 10 year career makes it hard to rank him much higher. I have given him a small bonus for playing time missed at the beginning of his career due to WWII service.

I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1.Ernie Banks
2.Charley Jones
3.Rube Waddell

From 1955-1960, Banks averaged an OPS+ of 148 while playing shortstop. That’s…um, good.

From 1876-1880 Charley Jones posted OPS+ seasons of 183, 169, 158, 156, and 154. He was the best LF of the 1870s, and one the top 3 outfielders of that decade—and that does NOT include his two blacklisted years of 1881-2. I’ve basically ignored him for years, which was a big mistake on my part. Take a look at him again if it’s been a while.

Waddell has eight seasons with an ERA+ above 120, with a top four seasons of 179, 179, 165, and 153--and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. Didn’t pitch a lot of innings compared to his contemporaries but, as dolflucky (used to) say, the man was dominant.

4.George Sisler
5.Jake Beckley
6.Dobie Moore

At the moment, the Hall has no one at 1B from 1897 until 1923, when Jud Wilson played a couple of seasons at first. From 1917-1922 Sisler’s averaged an OPS+ of 161 with forty stolen bases per season. That moves him ahead of Beckley, whose thirteen seasons with an OPS+ above 122 keeps him in the top five.

Moore made it to the top spot on my ballot last year, but I’m dropping him as Chris’ new numbers have sunk deeper into my cranium. He’s still the best SS from 1922-25 (and the best from 1919-1925 with two years of army credit). Moore is also a contemporary of Joe Sewell. I will take Moore’s 1921-5 seasons over Joe Sewell’s best five; if you give Moore credit for his Wrecker days, then it's not much of a contest, IMO.

7.Jim Bunning
8.Bob Elliott
9.Ken Boyer
10.Billy Pierce

Like everyone else, I have Bunning and Pierce linked closely together. Both pitchers have excellent primes. Pierce has the best season of the two, but Bunning’s prime was longer, and he pitched for more innings in front of worse defenses, so he is ahead a couple of spots.

Elliott and Boyer are also similar players. Elliott was a better hitter and had a little longer prime, which gives him the edge over Boyer’s defense. We currently have only three infielders from the 1950s (Robinson, Resse, and Mathews, with Banks on deck), so Boyer would help fill a gap there as well.

11.Ralph Kiner
12.Orestes Minoso

Minoso is similar to Beckley, in some respects; very good defense, not a particularly high peak but a long prime. In fact, if you add in Dr. C’s MLE’s, Minoso’s career stats start looking a lot like Beckley’s 125 OPS+ in 10, 470 plate appearances. It doesn’t make much sense to me to have a lot of distance between the two.

By my definition, anyway, Kiner’s prime is only one year shorter than Minoso’s, and his peak is a lot higher, with OPS+ seasons of 184, 184, and 173.

13.Vic Willis
14.Nellie Fox
15.Roger Bresnahan

We only have five pitchers in from 1896-1900. Willis pitched from 1898-00, so he’d give us another hurler in that era. More importantly, he had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154), so we’ve elected most of the guys like him.

I’ve already mentioned that we only have three infielders from the 1950s. We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF; Carew began his career in 1967, so that would be about a fifteen year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot.

We also have no one at catcher from 1891-1910. Bresnahan would not only help fill that gap, but also (a possible) one at CF from 1901-5, depending on what position you assign Pete Hill.

Jose Mendez: It kills me to drop him from the ballot, where’s he had settled for many years. But other pitchers looked better in my re-evaluation, and I have to respect that.

Dick Redding: He and Smokey Joe Williams were considered the best the best Nel pitchers of the teens, which gives me pause in keeping him off the ballot. His projections aren’t that impressive, however, and I like Mendez more. The fact that the HoF committee did not pick him doesn’t encourage me to move him up.

Hugh Duffy: Only one big year, and I question his WS A+ fielding grade. There is also no dearth of centerfielders in the Hall of Merit.

Joe Sewell: See Moore comment. Sewell also does not stack up well with other SS in the HoM.

Big career Win Share totals with MVP type seasons at up the middle positions move you to the top of the ballot. MVP type seasons without long careers come next, then long careers in key defensive spots, and finally outfielders and 1b with long careers.

1)ERNIE BANKS 300+ Win Shares, 3 MVP type seasons, excellent defender at a key position.
2)EDD ROUSH – 300 + Win Shares, 3 MVP type seasons, plus 5 additional All-Star type seasons, excellent defender at a key position.
3)TOMMY LEACH – 300+ Wins Shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield. Only 1 MVP type season. Of those really good Pirates teams in the Aughts, is Wagner the only HOMer?
4)NELLIE FOX –300+ Win shares, good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
5)RALPH KINER – Despite a shorter career (unadjusted) than most of my top 15, Kiner’s peak moves him up the ballot. Four 30+ Win Share seasons.
6)MINNIE MINOSO – Will keep him behind Kiner.
7)BOB ELLIOT – If he had just slaughtered the league in 1944 and 1945 when he was 27 and 28, he might be in now. Exceptionally unsuited to his home park though. In those two seasons Elliott hit 20 homers, second most on the Pirates over the two seasons.
8)GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Too many win shares to ignore, but you do have to let some of the air out of his19th century pitching win shares. Even so, his career totals keep him ahead Duffy and the 19th century guys.
9)JIM BUNNING - Black/Gray Ink moves him ahead of Mays, though they have similar career values. Bunning’s big seasons were just a hair better than Pierce’s, black and gray ink scores too.
10)CARL MAYS – Strong peak, good career value.
11)ROGER BRESNAHAN – best catcher not in, Roger, Elston Howard, and Schang are ahead of Mackey on my list.
12)PHIL RIZZUTO – with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3 year hole in his career, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
13)HUGH DUFFY – Good combination of career and peak value.
14)GEORGE SISLER – Enough career value and peak value to make the ballot.
15)KEN BOYER –His peak nudges him ahead of Traynor, 6th in games played at 3b when he retired – Mathews, Yost, Robinson, Traynor and Hack.

Disclosures – Jose Mendez and Dick Redding – Hard to rank, and not clearly better than the pitching glut.

Dobie Moore – Looking at his value pattern closely I think it is a big stretch to assume that his career before 25 was likely to have cemented his candidacy. I believe Al Rosen is his best comp, and I see Rosen as no better than the fourth best third baseman on the ballot.

Joe Sewell – I think Chris Cobb is on target with this one, ranks behind Maranville and Long. I was wondering if there is a shortstop with 300 win shares that won’t make the HOM, and the answer is Maranville.

1977 Ballot
1.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2.Ernie Banks – Somewhat overrated by history, but still a clear HOMer. Elected PHOM in 1977.
3.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
4.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
5.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may have been underrating him. Elected PHOM in 1942.
6.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
7.Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
8.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
9.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
10.Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
11.Hugh Duffy – Finally elected to my PHOM. Been on the fringes forever. Great defender Elected PHOM in 1970
12.Ralph Kiner – These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Incredible peak and enough prime value to make my ballot. Elected PHOM in 1971.
13.Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation. Elected PHOM in 1972
14.Dizzy Dean – Moves up due to big years bonus. Elected PHOM in 1973.
15.Edd Roush – Elected PHOM in 1975.

Required DisclosuresSisler and Minoso Both just miss my ballot.Sewell Better than Bancroft, but not by much. Just above Pesky. Like Gordon, Fox, Doyle, Stephens, and Rizzuto better among middle infielders.

New CandidateJim Bunning Slightly worse than Ford and Drysdale, but should make my PHOM soon.

Bunning #29. Banks and Rizzuto PHoM. Ashburn on deck for PHoM, then Keller and Kiner.

1)Banks--PHoM 1977. Arky Vaughn if he had played all those games at SS, Tony Perez if he played them all at 1B. His six year peak alone is 90% of a HoM career by my reckoning.
2)Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. If you’re going to take one of the second basemen he should be the one. PHoM in 1970.
3)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
4)Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me.
5)Elliott--I like him better than Hack. Second greatest 3B to date, after Baker. PHoM in 1960.
6)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
7)Schoendienst--PHoM in 1968. Compare to Julian Javier, his hitting was way above replacement.
8)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right. PHoM in 1970.
9)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
10)Minoso--I gave full ML credit for two+ years. 44 Win Shares to be precise, half of the MLEs. PHoM 1972.
11)Lombardi-- A long career as a catcher with a big bat. Almost 2000 games caught including PCL. PHoM 1976.
12)Elston Howard--war, segregation, stuck behind Yogi. The peak is there and the obstacles were out of his control. PHoM 1975
13)Tommy Bridges—fixed his war credit. 10 top 10 seasons in AL ERA+. PHoM 1975.
14)Ken Boyer--PHoM 1976.
15)Rizzuto--Lots of war credit. PHoM 1977.
16)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here. PHoM in 1913.
17)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters. PHoM in 1916.
18)Keller
19)Kiner
20)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play. PHoM in 1928.

Sisler--#89, I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years. See also Jack Fournier.Mendez--#33, I rate him right below Joss. PHoM in 1932.Redding--#44.Moore--#35, I didn’t vote for Jennings either.Hugh Duffy—Good hitter, great fielder. Duffy, Van Haltren, and Ryan are even in my estimation, but off the ballot.Van Haltren--#79, good player, part of the old OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.

1. Ernie Banks - even without any negro league or military service credit, clear number one
2. Jake Beckley - luv the career
3. George Van Haltren - star of the underrepresented 1890s
4. Ken Boyer - solid hitter and great defender in superior NL
5. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career
6. Ralph Kiner - great peak with homers and walks
7. Cupid Childs - very good second baseman during the 1890s
8. Nellie Fox - very good second baseman
9. George Sisler - half a super career is enuf for me
10. Bob Elliott - mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
11. Dobie Moore - great all-around shortstop, could be higher
12. Joe Sewell - best shortstop of his time
13. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct with minor league and wwii credit
14. Edd Roush - very good center fielder and solid hitter
15. Pie Traynor - previously so overrated that he is now underrated
-----
16-20. Chuck Klein, Hack Wilson, Tommy Leach, Minnie Minoso & Jose Mendez

Not voting for: Dick Redding (very good pitcher I have just off ballot)
and Hugh Duffy (not anywhere near the ballot). Side note, not voting for
Jim Bunning who I have slightly behind Drysdale and Billy Pierce.

freshened-up comments on many of the holdovers (I recommend the same for others)

Voting style: I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.
Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.

1. ERNIE BANKS - Conceding the overrated point, but Banks' hitting peak as a SS and his ability to actually field the position well gives him a higher 3-year peak or 7-year prime than clear HOMers like Cronin or Appling. They make up most or all of that shortcoming in the late years, as slightly better hitters while Banks is playng 1st base. So on this ballot, we have a player of the value of a Cronin or Appling - and thus, an easy No. 1.
2. JAKE BECKLEY - Heads a contingent of five guys below the Banks line whom I have concluded are definitely HOMers.
Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (twas a much different game back then), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Eddie Mathews had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted.

3. DICK REDDING - A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of his career are shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted. Think about how many Negro League hitters we have elected/are considering. This is the missing Negro League pitcher in our experiment. Too bad the HOF didn't feel the same way, and I now worry that the HOM won't, either.
4. RALPH KINER - Peak voters - how about a 184-184-173 trifecta of OPS+s? Then 156-146-140-132 to complete a stunning prime. A 121-117-116 completes the 10-pack. Nothing else here, but his rivals mostly are racking up 101s and 91s from that point anyway, so how much of a difference is that? How many runs did he really cost his teams in the OF? Yes, you can deduct, but enough to take him off the ballot?
5. CUPID CHILDS - Might seem cheesy to just say, 'Compare to Doerr and Gordon,' but he was similar and arguably better. This is a full-length career for this brutal and perhaps under-represented era. Even discounting 1890 AA as a weak league, you'll find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras. Not sure I understand why he hasn't gotten more support.
6. JIM BUNNING - Slots in one spot below where Drysdale was on my ballot a few years back. Without the funky career tail, the parallel to Drysdale's stats is almost eerie. Clearly a HOMer (see his ERA+ prime that I fashioned in his thread), but I see no need to place him above my five other 'sure things.'
7. GEORGE SISLER - Some may downgrade Banks over his comparison to Sisler, but that recognition actually moves Sisler up a slot on my ballot this year. I'm also giving a fielding credit based on widespread reputation (I consider pre-1930 fielding stats to be problematic). Not much in that 2nd half of career, I'll admit, hitting or fielding. But the first half was something to see. A slight pitching boost, too.
8. BILLY PIERCE - The leveraged relief IP appear to me to overcome much of the admitted lack of 'workhorsieness' in terms of IP per year. I still think he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of his era can beat him out (beyond the already-elected Spahn-Roberts-Ford trio). Keep him on your radar, and be ahead of the curve when people start to realize, 'Wow, we may be underrating 1950s players!'
9. BOB ELLIOTT - Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details). I've also mulled him vs McGraw, which is a difficult comparison, but Bob wins that, too. Better than HOMer Hack as well.
10. GAVVY CRAVATH - Good to see more discussion of him, but I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd be right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating.
11. RUBE WADDELL - Recent discussion in the Bunning and Drysdale threads made me realize that while I had good reason to toss him off more loaded ballots of earlier years, I can't do so anymore. I still think he had some direct impact in costing his team wins with his 'personality quirks,' but his overall effectiveness is impressive. Only 8 to 10 seasons of any note at all, and never led his league in IP and only top 9 on three occasions - a major negative in an 8-team league. But I'll give him this spot, at least.
12. MINNIE MINOSO - Third time voting for him. Eight OPS+s over 130 is pretty nice, and could field his position, too, but disappointed to see such negligible Negro Leagues credit. Still, even a little boost pops him onto the ballot.
13. BOB JOHNSON - Moved up three spots last year after I saw that he out-OPS+s Minoso (who wins only via fielding bonus). Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's.
14. KEN BOYER - Climbed onto ballot last year, and am tempted to move him up a little. Seven OPS+s over 120, and an excellent fielder, too. Good endurance, and seven times in the top 8 in ribbys.
15. PETE BROWNING - An old favorite clings barely to the ballot for a 2nd straight year. He's slipped a bit behind the Kiner/Cravath doppelgangers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I doubt it.

TOP 10 RETURNEES SNUBBED
JOSE MENDEZ - I reread his thread last year (it's long). I am satisfied as to Mendez being able to pitch to a level of a HOMer - but a long-career one, not a pure-peak one. Still better than most pitchers available, and could someday grab a No. 15 spot, but he doesn't quite rate with me right now. Sorry, Jose.
DOBIE MOORE - Similar in some ways to Mendez - short prime, some questionable opposition, much of that not in his hands, though. The MLEs on his thread underline to me showed him to be short of the level of a Gordon or a Childs, to pick two other middle INFs. An excellent player, but not for nearly long enough, and I'm not even satisfied that he was a big contributor with the glove at SS.
HUGH DUFFY - Win Shares gets him all wrong, and eventually they'll fix it. Excellent fielder, but geesh, he's not Ozzie Smith. As noted on the discussion thread, a non-WS look at the numbers leaves you wondering how he gets so many votes here.
JOE SEWELL - I prefer great-hitting SSs, or long-career ones, or great fielding ones at least. Sewell is a HOVG SS-3B.

OTHER JUST MISSED
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Landed back on my radar nearly a decade ago, but fell just off the ballot last year. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.
MICKEY WELCH - Bounced of late by Waddell. The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - I dismissed him long ago, but when the ballot thins it's inevitable that he would sneak back into my top 15 at times.
ROGER BRESNAHAN - Slips from 14th 7 yrs ago, is the 3rd NY Giant still in the mix. I could use a few more innings at C and not OF, but he was great in OF some years. Had not been on my ballot in many years before recently. Would haved been a better pick than Mackey.
LARRY DOYLE - Yep, another NY Giant! Hitting prime was great, this is Gordon without the fielding. Of course, at 2nd base, that means a lot. Could sneak back onto my ballot one day...

I still think he had some direct impact in costing his team wins with his 'personality quirks,'

Do you also take into account players with drinking habits (like Beckley) who absolutely cost their teams wins by showing up to work hung over or drunk?

This quote from www.baseballlibrary.com (http://www.baseballlibrary.com/baseballlibrary/ballplayers/B/Beckley_Jake.stm):

Cardinal pitcher Jack Taylor walks seven and tosses three wild pitches to help the host Pirates beat St. Louis, 5–2. The outcome will be viewed suspiciously because several local gamblers bet heavily on Pittsburgh before the game, but the real reason is Taylor and Jake Beckley's late night public drinking.

One more comment about the tendency to give credit for players' hanging-on type seasons, especially those around or below replacement level. How often do you all think that the player is kept around because he is a contributor, or the mangers think he'll contribute, and how often is the player still there because the fans love him and ownership fears a backlash if he isn't brought back. Is that meritorious?

Interesting question, rawagman.
But at this point Waddell's issues aren't really dragging him down much anymore on my ballot anyway.

As for 'hanging-on' type of seasons, I give Banks or Sisler a lot less credit for their late-career stats than Beckley, because 1B was a lot harder to play in Beckley's day. Also, no other 1Bs were able to play consistently well at 1B for several decades.
I don't see that as a coincidence, but clearly others do...

One more comment about the tendency to give credit for players' hanging-on type seasons, especially those around or below replacement level. How often do you all think that the player is kept around because he is a contributor, or the mangers think he'll contribute, and how often is the player still there because the fans love him and ownership fears a backlash if he isn't brought back. Is that meritorious?

If he's above replacemnt, he gets some crdit. If he's below, he gets a zero. I can't penalize a guy for accepting the money. It's up to management to tell him that he's done, a liability. If management decides intead that bringing in the fans is worth a few losses, that's not the players fault.

1. Ernie Banks – True, he’s not as great as popular opinion would have it. He’s still the class of this year’s ballot.

2. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

3. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

4. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was playing elsewhere.

13. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

14. Cupid Childs – Very good offensive force at a time were careers were shortened because of the roughhouse style played.

15. Edd Roush – Vaults up from the nether regions of my consideration set. The arguments on his behalf made me look and realize that I had goofed. Playing time issues still hold him back somewhat.

16. Billy Pierce – The comparison with Drysdale makes me realize that I had him too low. Looks worthy when compared to his peers.

17. Jim Bunning – Slots in behind Pierce in my pitcher rankings.

18. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time. Seems we have a lot of second sackers hanging out in the foyer.

19. Vic Willis – Jumps into the top 20. Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

20. Minnie Minoso –I suspect the study turned up about the same information we did in regards to his pre-major league years.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Dick Redding - Not out of consideration but at this stage I have him behind Mendez. However, he could be helped by the new study that will be released at some point.

>I still think he had some direct impact in costing his team wins with his 'personality quirks,'

>Do you also take into account players with drinking habits (like Beckley) who absolutely cost their teams wins by showing up to work hung over or drunk?

>Interesting question, rawagman. But at this point Waddell's issues aren't really dragging him down much anymore on my ballot anyway.

But in the aggregate this is exactly why Waddell is not in the HoM, and probably never will be. That and his UER which we have now learned 50 years later were actually within the normal range. It's worth asking whether he has been held to a different standard than other players.

Regarding the "value" of sub-replacement level hanging-on seasons, many of these are unexpectedly bad seasons. That is, management expects a above-replacement level season and gets worse than they bargained for. In those rather frequent cases, I am reluctant but willing to debit the player in question. I think it very rare that a team plays a player who it expects to do worse than someone else they can play or call up from the minors.

sunnyday, it's fair to complain about Waddell's unearned-run rate not being as far beyond some colleagues as we had previously thought, but that's not why he isn't in the HOM.
Waddell's combo of low workload and low length of significant career dragged him down. I used to vote for him anyway, he fell off my ballot, and now he's back, to show one example. At this point, my comment is basically just an opinion - but not something really altering his ranking.
I think you're 'overcorrecting' here. He'd have one of the weakest annual workloads in the entire HOM, if he got in.

Howie, I wasn't talking about your ballot per se, I mean, Waddell is on your ballot... I do think I am summarizing fairly other commentary of 50 years. Maybe his workload has been an issue but I don't remember comments to that effect.

Banks of course slots #1. Bunning is closely matched with the rest of the top ten but manages to start above the rest. The rookie dropoff below Jim ensures the rest of the ballot is in a holding pattern. Happy Birthyear to me!

1. Ernie Banks (n/a), Chic. (N), SS / 1B (’53-’70) (1977) – Arky Vaughan redux.2. Jim Bunning (n/a), Detr. (A) - Phila. (N) SP (’49-’64) (1977) – Does Bunning have a Tiger hat in Cooperstown? I automatically associate him with Philly, and am rather shocked at how many innings he logged in Detroit.3. Ken Boyer (1), St.L (N), 3B (’55-’68) (1975) – Better than Gordon. 4. Billy Pierce (3), Chic. (A) SP (’49-’64) (1971) – With the pitchers this closely together, I’m stepping back from total value, and sorting them by pitching value for the ballot. 5. Alejandro Oms (5), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – It sure looks like both Brown and Oms are gonna screw with my consensus scores from here on out on this project. Drops a little because the resume is so heavily non-US.6. Dutch Leonard (6), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...7. Dizzy Trout (7), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.8. Bucky Walters (8), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – I can’t think of the reason why I had developed space on the ballot between Dizzy and Bucky, they seem nearly equal in career value. 9. Phil Rizzuto (9), N.Y. (A), SS (’41-’56) (1972) – If you don’t like Gordon or Doerr, I’m not gonna convince you to like Rizzuto.10. George Van Haltren (10), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.11. Dom DiMaggio (11), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 4th highest war credit bonus to date (Pesky, Greenberg, Feller) I have measured this by pct. of career above actual career, so he beats out Ted. Adding up the total credit would be a different story of course.12. Bob Johnson (12), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume. --. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) – 13. Joe Sewell (13), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – Might deserve the spot over Rizzuto, but not this year.14. Ben Taylor (14), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – Similar to Beckley and Beckley’s in the P-Hall.15. Minnie Minoso (15), Chic. (A), LF (’49-’63) – Numbers say he’s on the happy side of the in/out line of the HOM right now (i.e. one of the top 200+ players of all time), but I see him as a victim of the timeline to ensure earlier eras were properly represented. Having said that, he is 4th on the backlog for P-Hall entry, so I could be wrong…

George Sisler – Makes Jennings seem ballot-worthy by comparison.
Dick Redding – The bar for NeL pitchers has been set higher than this, IMO. The jump from Ray Brown to Bill Foster, Mendez and Redding will keep them all out of my Hall.
Jose Mendez – Would rank as the worst pitcher elected on my list, if that comes to pass.
Dobie Moore – Well now you’re really scraping the bottom of the peak barrel. In no particular order, I have Moore below a host of peak players: Waddell, Cicotte, Dean, Klein, Nicholson, Kiner, Garver, …
Hugh Duffy – This seems like we’re just pulling names out of the hat at random. 65 years later, still not better than Ryan or Van Haltren.
Ralph Kiner – Considering they’re so similar, quite a few of you should have to explain Kiner with 25 votes and Chuck Klein with 3 before I explain why he is off-ballot.

A lot of players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.

1.Banks PHoM 1977. “It can reasonably be argued that the peak performance reached by Ernie Banks in the late fifties was as high as anyone has ever seen – in other words, that Ernie Banks in the late fifties was the most valuable player there ever was. I don’t know that I buy the argument, but you’ve got a Gold Glove shortstop here who hits over .300 with well over 40 home runs a year, driving in more runs than Jim Rice.” – Bill James, 1985. Win shares shoots that argument down, Mr. Cub’s 3 and 5 year peaks won’t put him above the median of ML HoMers.
2.Duffy PHoM 1912. 1890’s underrepresented. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons and also 10 consecutive seasons
3.Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
4.Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964. Closest thing on ballot to Koufax.
5.Cravath PHoM 1967. Would have been in my PHoM 35 years sooner had the mle’s been available.
6.Leach PHoM 1926. Favorite teddy bear.
7.Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
8.Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks puts Diz on my ballot for the first time.
9.Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. Dropping a few spots in 1975 – too many corner OF near top of my ballot.
10.Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” Using WS to compare to Ashburn:
·3 year peak - Roush 36, 33, 30; Ashburn 29, 28, 28
·5 year peak (consecutive)– Roush 144; Ashburn 138
·8 best years – Roush 218, Ashburn 216
·WS/162 – Roush 25.9; Ashburn 24.4
·OPS+ - Roush 126; Ashburn 111
·NHBA Rank – Roush 15, Ashburn 16
·HoM Support – Roush slowly coming around? Ashburn – elected as shiny new toy! That’s a shame.
11.Bunning I have him just ahead of Drysdale.
12.Minoso PHoM 1972.
13.Sisler 1975 reevaluation puts him on ballot for first time in 30 years.
14.Walters PHoM 1968. Preferring his peak to Wynn’s career.
15.Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
16.Fox
17.Cooper, W. Doesn’t look like the HoM will have any pitchers wearing a Pirates cap either. By WS one of top 2 pitchers in NL 1920, 1921, 1922, 1924. PHoM 1942. HoF just admitted the wrong Cooper.
18. Pierce Could move up, by WS, best in AL 1955 and 1958, 2nd best 1953.
19.C. Mays
20.Chance
21.Burns
22.Oms
23.Arlett
24.Berger
25.Doyle

1) Ernie Banks (ne). 1954-61 gets him on the ballot; everything else lets him inch up to the top.
2) George Van Haltren (1). Consolidated league, long career, scads of win shares, and a pretty decent late-career prime. Don’t be swayed by the latest WARP translations (or, if you are, make sure you vote for Bob Johnson!) - GVH belongs.
3) Jake Beckley (2). 125 OPS+ in over 10,000 adjusted AB is quite a lot of value, even though I've moved slowly towards valuing a 9-year prime over a strict career.
4) Quincy Trouppe (3). More appearances per season than Schang, and a much better hitter than Mackey. Probably Hartnett-lite. It's been bandied about on the Negro League induction thread that Trouppe wasn't even nominated for consideration, which unless our evaluations are way off is quite a shame.
5) Cupid Childs (4). Coming into the 1970s, I'd thought I might have been overrating Childs's contributions, but my 2B reevaluation in 1971 underscored how impressive his peak really was.
6) Billy Pierce (5). Whether he was a better overall player than Bob Lemon is up for debate, but my initial study of Pierce definitely suggests he was a better pitcher. Defense-adjusted ERA and PRAA both seem to bear that assertion out. Sort of like Bucky Walters without a war discount.
7) Edd Roush (6). Hurt by the discount to WARP3. Comparable to the now-elected Richie Ashburn.
8) Burleigh Grimes (7). Substantial movement in 1976 after comparing his case with Eppa Rixey, whom I had as high as #2. His extreme highs are enough to balance out his scary lows; if he’d grouped them all together, instead of vacillating between the two extremes, we might have the pitching equivalent of George Sisler.
9) Bob Elliott (9). After dropping two spots in 1975, jumps back up. Not as good as Stan Hack, but quite similar. Severe lack in quality 3B during Elliott’s era.
10) Dick Redding (10). No longer do I see him as better than Grimes.
11) Jim Bunning (ne). Very close to Pierce; could be above but #11 is my conservative first-year placement. Pierce’s leveraged innings push him ahead - for now.
12) Bob Johnson. (12) Beats Minoso in career EQA, WARP1, WARP3, and OPS+. Probably one of the top five or six OF of the 1930s. Something interesting I noticed last night - Johnson appears to be the only eligible player we haven’t enshrined who, according to BP’s translations, would have hit 500 HRs.
13) George Sisler (11). Now on the verge of election. Top OPS+ scores are comparable to Kiner, and even his marginal seasons had some value.
14) Alejandro Oms (13). Estimated 125 OPS+ in about 9,000 PA. Bit of a positional glut during his time, though.
15) Jimmy Ryan (14). Returned to ballot in 1976; hangs on for 1977. All the GVH comparisons are valid; I just think Van Haltren’s a tad better.

Dobie Moore - If I believed Moore’s peak/prime approached Banks’ 1954-1961, he’d probably catch the end of this ballot. Since I don’t, and since he doesn’t have the career to back up his peak, he can’t crack my top 40.Jose Mendez - Below Koufax, whom I had around #25.Minnie Minoso - Just off. Will probably make a ballot appearance in the 1980s, but for now I prefer Johnson.Joe Sewell - Cracked the top 15 last week, but drops to #16 with the arrival of Banks and Bunning.Hugh Duffy - Win Shares might like his fielding, but WARP declares him to be average. His 1894 doesn’t impress me as much when league strength is taken into account.Ralph Kiner – In a second tier of short-career corner outfielders like Charlie Keller and Pete Browning, around #26.

My #1 and #2 were elected last year, but Banks and Bunning place into the top 15, so they are the only new arrivals on my ballot this year. I made major changes in my pre-1930 candidate assessments last year by integrating WARP into my system; I hope to finish a reexamination of post-1930 candidates in time for the 1979 election, when we’ll dip into the backlog for the last time for a while.

1. Ernie Banks (ne/). I’ll join in the chorus: overrated by history, but still #1 in 1977.
2. Rabbit Maranville (3). Why isn’t he on more ballots?? Deeper study of WARP and fielding brings Maranville towards an elect-me spot. An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling.
3. Dick Redding (4). Slips behind Maranville among 1910s & early 20s stars. I’d happily elect him, but I see him as slightly less brilliant than the three above. I hope to review his MLEs before the next election.
4. Jose Mendez (5). Pretty much holding steady with the best pitching peak among eligibles. I hope to reveiw his MLEs before the next election.
5. Gavvy Cravath (6). I hope the renewed discussion of Cravath will help revive his candidacy. Extraordinary hitter, but weak fielding and weak competition hold him back. My study of top 7 consecutive seasons placed his peak below Keller, Kiner, and Sisler, but he has nearly three top seasons in the AA outside that peak.
6. Herman Long (7). Like Maranville, he tracks upward as I place more weight on infield defense.
7. Ralph Kiner (8). Great peak versus strong competition. A little more peak than Cravath, but quite a bit less prime.
8. Jim Bunning (n/e). Careful assessment of his prime validates ranking him slightly ahead of Billy Pierce.
9. Billy Pierce (9). Good discussion of leverage helps his case with me. I hope his candidacy is about to gain momentum.
10. Dave Bancroft (10). Top beneficiary this week of my reexamination of WARP and fielding value. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him.
11. George Sisler. (11). I’ve changed my mind on him again. After another reassessment of first-base defense, I conclude that his peak is underrated because his above-average first-base defense prior to his illness is substantially underrated. With the best position-player peak available, he comes back onto my ballot.
12. Jake Beckley (12). Well, look who else benefits from my reassessment of first-base defense! No great years, but with his defense properly credited, he was steadily an above-average player for a very long time. He makes my ballot for the first time, in his 65th year of eligibility.
13. Tommy Leach. (13). Greater credit for fielding brings him back onto the ballot.
14. Nellie Fox (14). Holds steady. We need to elect some more infielders from the 1950s!
15. Bucky Walters (15). Favre’s period surveys help identify Walters as a player deserving of a little more support. I think that players who peaked during the war years have been getting a little less credit than they deserve, so I bring Walters onto my ballot for the first time.

Minnie Minoso: a borderline outfielder candidate in a period long on outfielders. I don’t oppose his election, but I think there are more deserving, overlooked infield candidates.

Dobie Moore: an excellent peak, but not high enough or long enough to offset his lack of career value. I somewhat prefer several other contemporary shortstops.

Hugh Duffy: a borderline outfielder candidate in a period long on outfielders. I think Duffy is being seriously overvalued by the electorate. I can see giving Duffy some extra credit beyond his stats for his team’s outperforming their stats, but that should only go so far.

Joe Sewell: Just off my ballot, which is his highest ranking ever from me. Slight preference for Bancroft. I no longer oppose his election, as I long did, but I don’t advocate for it at present.

George Van Haltren: My reassessment of positional defensive value, coupled with WARP’s reassessment of Van Haltren’s defense, leads me no longer to support his candidacy. Among remaining 1890s candidates, I see the backlog as Beckley, Childs, Cross, Ryan, Van Haltren, Duffy, McGraw, in that order.

1.Ernie Banks (x, PHOM) – His peak wasn’t quite as good as Keller’s, but it was comparable to Dobie Moore’s AND he had much more career. Similar to Sisler but I like banks prime and decline phase slightly more than Gorgeous George’s.

2.Charlie Keller (1, PHOM) – Best peak on the board in my estimation with as many as 8 MVP level seasons (30 WS) depending on how much credit you give him for the war and his time stuck in the MiL’s.

3.Cupid Childs (2, PHOM) – Best 2B of the 19th century, better, in my estimation , than HOMers Hardy Richardson and Bid McPhee. He was a top level offensive performer, had a very nice peak, and decent career length for an 1890’s middle infielder.

4.Hugh Duffy (3, PHOM) – He sits atop the 1890’s CF trio of backloggers due to his superior peak. WS gives him a lot of credit for is team’s overachieving in relation to their pythags, credit that I think the players deserve.

5.Dick Redding (4, PHOM) – Second best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era behind Smokey Joe Williams, who may have been better than page. Longer career with a similar peak to Mendez. One of the best fastballs ever.

12.Dizzy Dean (11) – Koufax Lite, peak not quite as good, career not quite as long, not quite the zero at the plate that Koufax was. Still a hell of a pitcher at his best.

13.Rube Waddell (12) – Rawagman’s mini study of UER % during the dead ball era showed that Waddell, while high, was not an outlier during his era. This makes his 134 career ERA+ all the more impressive.

14.Elston Howard (13) – The more I look at him the more I see Quincey Trouppe. They were both offensively minded catchers with high peaks who were athletic enough to play different positions. Trouppe’s time at 3B, instead of LF, and more playing time push him slightly ahead of Elston.

15.Ken Boyer (14) – Unless we are willing to elect guys like Boyer, Elliot, or Rosen, we are going to be short of 3B. I rate Boyer ahead of all three, though they are all decent candidates. The worst offensively of the trio, Boyer had a longer career with a decent prime and was the best defensively.

Required Disclosures

16.Joe Mendez – I have him rated slightly below Waddell. Was on my 1976 ballot.
17.George Sisler – Peak isn’t as impressive as some think it was and he wasn’t much after 1922.
30. Minnie Minoso – I can’t really see what separates him from a number of other OFers candidates like Bob Johnson, George burns, and others.
37. Joe Sewell – Not really sure what makes him so special. He may have been the best player to have played a lot of SS in the 1920’s but I think that Bancroft was better as a SS. And it isn’t like 1920’s SS were an amazing lot.

I add 25 WS to Minoso's record myself, which gets him over 300. With that in mind, I would ask how Minoso separates himself from Ashburn and Averill, once proper NeL credit is given?

Otherwise that's a fine ballot. I appreciate your support for Moore, Kiner, Browning and Waddell. Obviously Minoso is not a BIG peak candidate but I do think he separates from a lot of the mid-peak, mid-career guys when NeL credit and placement among peers is considered.

Chris, I love SSs myself, and defense. But Maranville, Bancroft and Herman Long, but no Phil Rizzuto? How much war credit for Philly?

War credit is not the issue: I give full war credit to all players -- Joe Gordon was #2 on my ballot last time on the strength of war credit. The issue is my progress through my reevaluation of infield defense. My readjustments on defense are based on integrating WARP into my system, and so far I've only covered 1871-1930 in my WARP project. It's possible that once I have gotten through the 1940s, Rizzuto will appear on my ballot. I suspect, however, that he will move up in my rankings but fall short of the ballot, as did Sewell and Tinker, though Sewell looks like he will get onto my ballot at some point.

Calling Bob Johnson the fifteenth best OF of the 1930s is a bit misleading because (a) such a statement effectively ignores Johnson's contributions from 1940-1945, which were not negligible, and (b) Johnson's ML career did not begin until 1933. I mean, of course Wally Berger's going rank highly in WS among 1930s OF - aside from 45 AB in 1940, his entire career neatly fits between 1930 and 1939.

Bob Johnson had 4436 PA from 1930-39. Lloyd Waner had 5433. Sam West had 5561. Ben Chapman had 6336. On WS/27, Johnson's got to come out ahead of these guys, right?

Not that I put much stock in WS's evaluation of Johnson, mind you. He beats Kiki Cuyler in career EQA by 11 points and OPS+ 138 to 125, yet Cuyler has a 5 WS edge.

6. Rube Waddell: Great ERA+, struck out tons of people when others weren’t. Yeah, he gave up a lot of unearned runs, but it’s not like he was alone…. In the core of his career, 1900-1909, 33% of the runs he allowed were unearned. Cherry-picking the same period, we have 3-F Brown 36%, Ed Walsh & Addie Joss 34%, Christy Mathewson, 31%, Cy Young 30%. (eligible 1916, PHOM 1968)

7. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. Made my PHOM as a shiny new toy in ’39, now becoming a teddy bear. (eligible 1939, PHOM 1939)

11. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

12. Nellie Fox: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971)

Required comments:
Jose Mendez: Creeps ever closer to the ballot as the crowd thins out.
Dobie Moore: High quality, but short career hurts.
Hugh Duffy: Wow, back in the top 10 and even ahead of GVH! Hugh made my PHOM in ’40, but the field’s much deeper now. Near the bottom of my top 30.

New guy:
Bunning’s the only other serious candidate in this class. I agree with the people who put him behind Drysdale and Pierce. He’s close to Pierce, and Billy’s barely on.

1. (new) Ernie Banks. If Banks had retired instead of moving to 1B in 1962, he’d look like Dobie Moore with a bit more peak. Had he never played SS, he’d look like George Sisler with slightly more career—and I have both of those guys in the top 5. Overrated, perhaps, but the strongest eligible candidate this year. Also, to the best of my knowledge, the only player on the ballot to have visited my grade school while I was in attendance, though I don’t give him any extra credit for this.

2. (2) Edd Roush. One of the best players in the NL for a decade. Sure, there are some odd things about his career, but to me he balances both peak (three 30+ Win Shares seasons, six seasons above 8 WARP and 140 OPS+) and career (above 100 WARP and 300 WS) better than most of the 21 guys who finished ahead of him on the last ballot.

3. (1) Dobie Moore. The new material presented on his thread confirms that he was a great player for at least 5 years. There’s a lot about his career we may never know, but with a few years' credit for his time playing in army, his career could be seen as being of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

4. (3) Nellie Fox. Fox was durable, consistent, got on base a lot, and an was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. To me, that adds up to a player far more valuable than might be suggested by his 94 OPS+.

5. (4) George Sisler. Sisler was an outstanding player, both offensively and defensively between 1916-1922. The remainder of his career doesn’t add much value, but I give him more credit for playing than I would if he had simply retired.

6. (5) Larry Doyle. His defensive stats are just odd. If BP’s assessment is to be trusted, Doyle began as a terrible fielder and became a better than average fielder as his career was winding down. Also, it seems odd that he wouldn’t have been at least tried at some other position if he was really that poor. There’s no question about his offensive abilities, however. Doyle has a career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star.

7. (6) Cupid Childs. Best 2B of the early-mid 1890s. Maybe the best eligible 2B, period. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Moore, whose peak seems higher, but I like him better than I like the three 1890s OFs.

8. (new) Jim Bunning. The material on his thread is exhaustive, so I’ll just say I like him slightly better than the pitchers who follow him on this ballot (as well as a couple of pitchers we’ve elected) and just worse than Drysdale.

9. (7) Billy Pierce. I don’t see much difference between Pierce and Drysdale except for maybe a small peak advantage for DD. Pierce is neither a peak candidate nor a career candidate, but he was one of the best pitchers in the AL for almost a decade, with perhaps one year (1955) when there was no one better.

10. (8) Rube Waddell. I have long thought that Rube deserves more respect regardless of how troubled he may have been. Top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years, Ks per 9 innings for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76, 248 PRAA. Even factoring in concerns about unearned runs and innings pitched per season, those are some impressive numbers.

11. (10) Tommy Bridges. Like Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t an much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times. A very solid pitcher who seems easy to overlook, much like his former teammates Trout and Trucks.

12. (11) Geo. Van Haltren. I’ve never been sure where to put GVH. I don’t sense he was ever an elite player, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. He even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures make a less compelling argument.

14. (13) Minnie Minoso. He played in a tough league and NeL credit bumps up his career value. Like Sisler, we’ve elected several players he seems comparable to.

15. (new) Bucky Walters. Looked at him again this week and realized I’d overlooked him the first time around. Like, for example, Edd Roush, he’s got a few odd things (in his case: a late start, a legendary defensive team, pitching through the war) about his career that make him hard to value. It’s hard to imagine you could be a much better player than he was in 1939, when he led the NL in wins, ERA, IP and had a 111 OPS+ in 131 plate appearances.

Required disclosures:
Dick Redding, Jose Mendez, Hugh Duffy, Joe Sewell. I like Redding the best of these guys and would like to find a place for him on the ballot. Mendez strikes me as a peak candidate whose peak isn’t quite enough, though my recent reevaluation of Bucky Walters should have included Mendez as well, perhaps. Duffy (who I have voted for in the past) is buried in the OF glut. Sewell is a fine candidate, but I don’t know why anyone would prefer him to Rizzuto—and I’m not a huge fan of Phil’s.

It appears that this year I will take karlmagnus’s place at the bottom of the consensus scores. Although I think Banks is (barely) HoM worthy, I simply can’t agree with the view that he’s a no-brainer or belongs automatically at the top of the ballot.

A brief explanation of my rating system is probably needed. First, my system for position players is based on win shares with many adjustments wherever I think the system is inaccurate. I do not trust or use Warp’s fielder ratings. Banks and Rizzuto are a good example of why I don’t trust Warp. WS sees Rizzuto as an A+ defensive shortstop, deserving of multiple Gold Glove awards. I believe that this matches pretty well his reputation while active. WS sees Banks as a slightly below average defensive shortstop whose statistics benefit from playing behind a groundball staff. For examples of contemporary opinion, see the Banks entry in TNBJHBA, which includes negative quotes from Sport Magazine in 1957 and (quoting Stan Musial) in 1964. Warp, on the other hand, sees Rizzuto and Banks as equally good defensive shortstops, both rated 106. This is one of many cases where I’ve observed WS comes closer to matching contemporary opinion. Of course, contemporary opinion isn’t always right, but I’m going to trust Musial ahead of whatever secret formula the folks at BP are using. (I do include some Warp information in evaluating pitchers.)

I imagine many voters here base their rankings on a combination of a career score and a peak/prime score, such as highest 3 (or 5, or 7) seasons. Banks had a great peak and his career totals for WS, and especially for Warp, were good too, so it’s not surprising he does well with many voters. What this leaves out, in my opinion, is his sharp drop-off in performance after his peak seasons. Banks had only 6 seasons with more than 20 WS—an unusually low total for an HoM position player.

My system is similar to what is sometimes called “total peak.” For each season I assign points, but with a very high floor that is designed to reward seasons with above-average performance. The total score is simply the sum of the scores for each season. To approximate my system, assign one point for a season with 13 WS, a second for 15, and then one for each WS > 16, then add another point for each WS > 25. In this system, players with great peaks can do well (Jennings, Koufax, and Greenberg were all near the top of my ballot; Dean, Howard and Moore generally make the bottom), but players who have long, consistent primes of about 25 WS without great peaks also do well (for example, Minoso and Oms). Players who don’t consistently have seasons in the mid 20s, such as Sisler and Beckley—and now Banks, don’t tend to do well. In my view this approach is justified – we’re trying to separate the excellent from the very good.

1. Jim Bunning – I had Drysdale at the top of my ballot, so it shouldn't be surprising that Bunning fits in here too. Compared with Banks, we see the difference in my system between having 10 outstanding seasons compared to 6. Over 10 seasons (1957-62, 64-67) Bunning averaged 17-11, 2.6 wins above team, 271 IP, 213 SO, 67 BB, 126 DERA+. (PHoM 1977)

2. Orestes Miñoso – A fine, consistent player. He hit for average and with power, ran with speed, and won three Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 31. 8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). (PHoM 1970)

4. Phil Rizzuto – I can understand that most of you won’t agree with my rating of Rizzuto ahead of Bank, but I think it’s a shame that more of you don’t see them as close. Rizzuto had 7 seasons with more than 20 WS (compared to 6 for Banks), and I figure with appropriate war credit he would have had at least 9. He probably also deserves minor league credit for his final season, when he was Minor League Player of the Year. Scooter's MVP season was comparable to Banks’s best, though of course he doesn’t come close to matching Mr. Cub’s top 5. (I’ll note that a small study by EricC posted on the Phil Rizzuto thread suggests that if given back the war years, Scooter would have had at least one more peak season of about 29 WS.) I think it is unfair and unfortunate that Rizzuto has largely dropped off the radar screen. (PHoM 1967)

8. Gavy Cravath – My “bat” candidate. From ages 32-36 his OPS+ stats were 172-160-171-147-153. However, he was just continuing what he’d been doing for years, while he was with Los Angeles at age 26 and with Minneapolis from ages 28-30. (PHoM 1976)

13. Elston Howard – Howard’s record from 1961-64 leaves little doubt in my mind that he was a great catcher. MVP for 1963; placed 3rd in 1964. (PHoM 1977)

14. Dobie Moore – “A superb fielder with outstanding range and a terrific arm...An outstanding hitter, he hit for average and could also hit the long ball.” —James A. Riley.

15. Ernie Banks – Did I mention that he only had 6 seasons with more than 20 WS? I'm probably playing too much the devil’s advocate, though. He'll make it into my PHoM in a few years. He won two MVPs – and wasn’t too far behind the guys who really should have won them. Gold Glove for 1960 (win shares sees him as the Gold Glove for 1959). A truly great peak from 1955-60.

My numbers 5 and 15 were elected. I don't know the last time I had both electees in a backlog election. My system rewards 7 year prime first, then 3 year peak, then per season and career about equally. Bonuses for catching and being best in the league. Also consider rank in times they played and rank among others at their position.

1. Mickey Welch: The weight of the evidence
2. Charley Jones: The weight of the evidence. A top 10 position player from 1876 to 1885. Please see the Keltner List on his thread.
3. Pete Browning: Hitter
4. Charlie Keller: MVP level play for 6 straight years with 1.75 years of War credit. Only DiMaggio, Williams, and Musial were better in the 1940s before he hurt his back.
5. Hugh Duffy: A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. I need to post that to the Duffy thread soon.
6. Quincy Troupe: A great hitting catcher whose nomadic career has done wonders to hide his value. I ask the many voters who trust the MLEs of elected or balloted NeLers to look again at Troupe.
7. Ernie Banks: A great hitting shortstop. I have him about 10th-12th among shortstops so far. A lot of bulk career value at first base. If he put up his whole career at short, he would rank significantly higher.
8. Jose Mendez: From 1910 to 1914, only Johnson and Alexander were better. A gigantic peak.
9. Bucky Walters: Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white players.
10. Alejandro Ohms: Many years of all-star-plus years (over 25 win shares.)
11. Cupid Childs: Best second baseman of 1890s and its not close.
12. Jim Bunning: I have been looking at his career again. He is similar to Wilbur Cooper - slightly better in K/9, BB/9, and timing his better ERA+ years with his higher IP years. 3 times the best pitcher in his league (1957, 1960, and 1967). There really wasn't a best pitcher in the 1960 AL. Bunning was the only pitcher with 20 win shares and he had 20.
13. Vic Willis: Take another look. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League.
14. Dobie Moore: Banks before Banks. I may have to move them closer on the final ballot. My system finds them quite comparable.
15. Tommy Leach: Great defense. Good hitting at two key defensive positions. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever.

16-20:
Chance: Best peak by a first baseman between Connor and Brouthers and Gehrig.
Redding: Excellent peak but not enough shoulder years.
Burns: Best leadoff hitter of the 1910s NL. Overlooked.
Kiner: Just a hair behind Burns for best LF on my board.
Minoso: Just a hair behind Burns and Minoso for best LF. I can't put all three on the ballot so none of them go.

21-25:
Grimes: Too many ups and downs in his career to get elected, but I think he and Early Wynn are the very similar.
Cooper, Wilbur: He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways so there is a 13 space gap between them.
Cravath: Man, I wish I could vote for 25 players. The best right fielder on the ballot. Am in the process of reslotting him. Probably move to bottom/just off position of the ballot.
Roush: see Cravath. PHOM for years.
Bresnahan: I have been overlooking him again. Great year in CF is a bonus. Look at how much better he was than other catchers of his era.

26-30
Doyle: Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired.
Easter: Could be anywhere between here and the ballot depending on how much credit I'm giving next week.
Long: Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder.
Rosen: What if...
Stephens: Great hitter. More than adequate defense.

31-35
Sisler: His raw numbers are heavily park influenced. Too bad he couldn't walk. His peak is just not high enough, nor is his prime. First base and center field have the highest standards for me. He doesn't meet them.
Van Haltren: Lots of years of 25+ win shares in the 1890s. Too bad the other outfielders were putting up better every year.
Dean: Great peak. Just nothing else there.
Waddell: Does not have as many big years as the other great pitchers of his era.
Fox: He certainly stood out over the other second basemen of his era. Too bad it wasn't that difficult.

36-40:
Schang: I wish he could go higher. I see the arguments.
Tiernan: He had slipped through my net. Much better than I realized.
Fournier: Remember to give him credit for the White Sox screwing up.
Mays: The best supported pitcher, offensively and defensively, other than Spalding.
Monroe, Bill: He impressed the hell out of McGraw

41-45:
Scales: Pretty good player.
McGraw: Just not healthy enough.
Sewell: A good player, but just a little short.
Berger: Not enough prime years for me.
Clarkson: Another good player who was introduced to me through this process.

46-50:
Elliott: I need to review his candidacy
Shocker: A very good pitcher who faced very tough opponents.
Jones, F: Excellent defender. Stats are hard to difficult to understand because fo the context:
Seymour: Hard to analyze career with the giant fluke year and the pitching.
Denny Lyons / Ed Williamson: Two excellent third basemen of a bygone era.

Others:
Boyer: I have him behind Leach, Rosen, Elliott, Clarkson, McGraw, Traynor, Lyons, and Williamson. He is pretty much tied with the latter three, but nowhere near the ballot. Peak and prime were not high enough.
Beckley: 11th best available first baseman. Around 140th among all eligible players.

Also, Burns was a useful player until 1923 (four seasons outside 1910-1919) while Minoso was done as a useful player in 1961 (2 seaons afterward). So using WS in a decade will favor Minoso more than many other players.

Minoso may be better than both (I have im ranked above both) but he doesn't really have enough seperation for me to supporth is HOM case. And BTW I did not vote for Ashburn either, though I think that Richie was slightly better than Minnie.

I posted and considered their career total WS. I picked players whose careers overlapped Burns and Minoso, and I did that the easy way, by looking at WS leaders in their core decade (as per lists in WS book). But I posted and considered their career totals. If Minoso gets any NeL credit, the separation begins to appear.

1. Wally Schang - Long consistent career with very good bat in the 1910s-1920s AL, an era when catchers did not catch as many games year in and year out as later.
2. Ernie Banks - OK, a SS with 500 HR and not #1 on my ballot. Requires some explaining. First of all, Schang at #1 is not a mark of Schang being inner-circle great, just that I rate him as a middle-of-the-pack PHoMer, as I do Banks. Why is Banks only a middle-of-the-packer in my system? It'd the Jennings/Sisler/Garciaparra-to-be(?) "two career syndrome". In fact, Banks' high rating only comes from his 1955-1961 peak. Nothing that he did afterwards pushes him any higher in my system. I do tend to favor the glove postions more than the bats, which is part of why he rates near the top of my ballot while Sisler is well off. I also base my ratings on Win Shares, and it's bad news for a Cub to be rated on something that depends on "Wins" :-)
3. Joe Sewell - Best ML SS of the 1920s, in the strong AL, and I'm a believer in league-strength adjustments.
4. Jim Bunning - Around the 3rd or 4th best 1960s pitcher. My ballot is loaded with 1950s/1960s inning eater pitchers, including many that are not so highly in general.. This is a flag that I am somehow overrating the value of eating innings in the 1950s-1960s. I have an idea for testing that hypothesis and improving my system, but it will have to wait until at least one more "year". In the meantime, I don't feel that there is any danger that my ballot would help Bunning get elected by mistake. I have checked pitcher distributons over large time scales, and a PHoM without Bunning would have well under 30% pitchers, a number that would be too small for me.
5. Bob Friend - I might be his only "friend". As noted above, maybe I'm favoring 50s-60s pitchers too much. In any case, a lot of quality innings in a relatively strong league.
6. Jose Mendez - Evidence of a HoM worthy peak; a better version of Lefty Gomez, but I've rated him below Koufax.
7. Nellie Fox - WS likes him, WARP doesn't. My system rates IF highly; he jumped when I starting using less extreme league factors.
8. Tommy Bridges - 2nd most runs saved above average of all unelected Cooperstown eligible pitchers, behind Blyleven.
9. Curt Simmons - A suprise in my system. Similar case to Pierce. Helped by my league factors which suggest that pitching was stronger in the NL during his time.
10. Ken Boyer - Borderline 3B candidate, a position underrepresented in Cooperstown.
11. Billy Pierce - Many very good seasons.
12. Gil Hodges - For strength of the 1950s NL and for being the best or among the best 1B throughout his prime.
13. Orestes Minoso - Not an extereme career, but a little credit for ML time missed and a fine prime put him on the ballot.
14. Larry Jackson - Yet another good 50s-60s pitcher with lots of innings.
15. Dutch Leonard (Emil)- Not one outstanding quality, but lots of very good in a long career.

-Van Haltren and Beckley are the best unelected 1890s OF and IF.
-Sisler was a good player, but because of his injury, his prime wasn't long/strong enough for me, and he falls well short of my ballot.
-Duffy had an excellent peak/prime by some measures. Like Sisler, it wasn't long/strong enough for me.
-Kiner's career has many similarities with Albert Belle's. I don't oppose his election, as he falls just short of my ballot.
-Redding was a goof pitcher with a long career, but I'd elect NeL pitchers Mendez and Byrd before Redding.
-I have no doubt that Moore was at least all-star quality, but Jennings wasn't making my ballot either.

1. Charlie Keller - Showed that, at the age of 20, he was able to walk from his college graduation straight to the high minors and dominate. With minor-league credit and war credit, he was an MVP-level player for a decade. No one else on the ballot can make that claim.2. Ernie Banks - Tough, tough decision here; I wanted to put him behind Redding and Mendez but couldn't pull the trigger. He is historically overrated by virtually everyone due to the home runs, but he was basically a slugger who got penciled into the "6" spot on the scoresheet. Adds next to nothing with his career after 30.3. Dick Redding - I'm constructing my own short-form Win Shares-based evaluations for pitchers with the ERA translations that I use. Good peak plus (previously unrecognized by me) war credit puts him right behind Rube Foster in the all-time rankings.4. Jose Mendez - Phenomenal stretch from 1910-1914; my projections have him winning 23 games per season.5. Jim Bunning - Fine pitcher. A pale version of Drysdale, but that's still an easy HOMer.

6. Dobie Moore - New MLE Win Shares from Chris Cobb hurt him slightly, but I'm eager to see the California Winter League data worked into projections somehow.7. Quincy Trouppe - Mackey's election has made me think about something: how much is defensive reputation overrated in how casual fans perceive a catcher's value? It makes sense that it is, considering how the catcher is at the center of attention in the field (along with the pitcher). But most of a position player's overall value is with the bat.8. Rube Waddell - With guys like Mendez, Mays and Bridges, he is part of a family of pitchers on the HOM borderline. The difference in my system between pitchers like Mendez and Waddell in comparison to Mays and Bridges is about 30-40 points of adjusted ERA (the actual number, not the percentage) and support-neutral winning percentage.9. Nellie Fox - In a tightly-grouped ballot such as this, I tend to favor the "up-the-middle" guys.10. Minnie Minoso - See Alejandro Oms comment.

11. Alejandro Oms - Minoso and Oms might be the most tightly-matched pair of players on this ballot. Both had a broad base of skills which helped their teams. Both didn't really have any standout, MVP-type seasons, but played at an All-Star level for about eight seasons. Both were black Cubans. Minoso gets the edge because his shoulder seasons were better.12. Tommy Leach - Similar in value pattern and skill set to the two players above him, trading some offense for defense.13. Edd Roush - Two MVP-level seasons (1919, 1920) and three more that would have been at that level if he didn't miss quite as much playing time (1917, 1918, 1923).14. Burleigh Grimes - Three great seasons (1920, 1921, 1928) anchor a long career. Hitting ability a plus.15. Dizzy Dean - Gets nailed on a shift to a Win Shares-based evaluation system. Five-season peak is very similar to Jose Mendez, though a tiny bit worse. Slightly better shoulder seasons and more "hang-around value" is the difference between third and fifteenth on a tight ballot.

Top Ten Returnees Off Ballot
George Sisler - His 1920 season was great, but some durability issues in other peak/prime seasons keep him from rating higher. In integrated all-time rankings (MLB and NeL), he barely ranks among the top 35 at first base. Albert Pujols has already had four seasons that equal or far surpass Sisler's best and he'd probably fall on the wrong side of the HOM borderline if a truck driven by a deranged Cubs fan ran him over tomorrow.
Ralph Kiner - 1949 and 1951 were monster seasons with the bat. 1947 and 1948 were MVP-level, too. But those four seasons are all there really is to recommend him. Using OPS+ to argue that he and Keller are inseparable is misleading. More of Keller's OPS+ value is in the OBP portion. Furthermore, Keller's OBP is driven more by his batting average. These two advantages are small but very important.
Joe Sewell - Solid player who had a few All-Star level seasons, but stands out in comparison to his contemporaries only because of a drought in top-line talent at shortstop in the white majors. Lloyd, Wells, Moore and Lundy were all better than him. Appling and Cronin came into the league just as Sewell was finishing up his career at the hot corner for the Yankees. He rates in a virtual tie with Bancroft, far, far off my ballot.
Jake Beckley - He hung around forever. So did Jason in the "Friday the 13th" movies.
George Van Haltren - Hit well, but a mediocre defender for a CF. Four All-Star seasons aren't enough to get serious consideration.
Hugh Duffy - Nice little player who lingers just off my ballot.

Looking at the comments here, I'm assuming we HAVE agreed to keep the balloting open until Tuesday. I'm planning to have mine done tonight, but not by 8:00 (if I don't have to). E-mail me if it's a problem.

Oh, I forgot - for Paul Wendt. I tried to e-mail you a question (not HOM related) through BBTF this week, and I got messages back saying it wasn't going through. Since Jim has a note up on the front page saying that he's testing e-mail addresses and plans to make accounts with non-working ones dormant, you should try to straighten that out.

Ah, the good old-fashioned late-night ballot assembly (as opposed to my more recent trend of finishing it off at work on Monday). I wonder who the last candidate was who got to be such the center of attention as Bunning was this year, with a fair amount of backlog burnout, and the only other new candidate being more or less a sure thing. Even Koufax had a backlog spot that year as well.

Banks and Bunning make my PHoM this year.

1. Ernie Banks (new) Not quite up to the hype, but still well-qualified, a strong hitter for a shortstop who contributed for a long time.

2. Tommy Leach (2) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. Made my PHoM in 1940.

3. Bill Monroe (3) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Even though we don't have reliable numbers for him, he shouldn't be overlooked. Made my PHoM in 1939.

4. Quincy Trouppe (4) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

5. Dick Redding (5) I'm for settling the Redding/Mendez debate by putting them both in. For now, Daisy-Cutter Dick is ahead because I find his career argument stronger than Mendez' peak one. Made my PHoM in 1973.

6. Joe Sewell (6) Gets picked on a lot, but I wouldn’t have minded his induction. The comparisons to Doerr and Gordon are viable, and he played a more important position. Bancroft may be underrated, but Sewell’s batting advantage is enough to keep him ahead for me. Made my PHoM in 1939.

7. Dobie Moore (7) The new MLEs don’t hurt him all that much, but they do drop him back behind Sewell. We honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM in 1968.

8. Jim Bunning (new) I agree with the semi-consensus that has him behind Drysdale and ahead of Pierce, which works out here in my system. How many pitchers were better in the 60s? I'd say Gibson, Marichal, Koufax, Drysdale and Ford (plus Wilhelm). Maybe Gaylord Perry, but his best years were later. The guys like Palmer, Seaver and Carlton were really not his contemporaries. That's not a slam-dunk candidate, but it is good enough for serious consideration, and his record is better than any other (white) pitcher on the ballot. Makes my PHoM this year.

9. Minnie Minoso (8) I think he's a bit ahead of Medwick & Johnson among corner OF, but it's very hard to be sure. Gets a bit of an era boost – even though the AL was the weaker league, overall I think the Fifties are somewhat underrepresented, and also defensive credit for playing some 3B. Made my PHoM in 1971

10. George Van Haltren (9) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.

12. Gavvy Cravath (14) You know, I did have Willard Brown pretty high on my ballot. With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him. Like Minoso, has the underrepresented era/weak league factors to consider.

13. Cupid Childs (11) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my PHoM in 1932

14. Rube Waddell (12) Yeah, I wasn’t giving the ERA as much credit as it deserved. Some truly outstanding seasons, and the strikeouts certainly aren’t a bad thing. But his era is pretty well-represented for pitchers.

(14A Joe Gordon)

15. Billy Pierce (17) There really isn’t much separating him from Bunning when you look at the totality, although the year-by-year Win Shares are not impressive.

16. Ken Boyer (15) Haven’t updated my WARP numbers for everyone else, so I’m worried about overrating him. I see his numbers as comparable to Elliott, with a higher peak. When you add in a wartime penalty for Elliott, it’s not a question.
(16A Joe Medwick)
17. Bob Johnson (16) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. I don’t think I’ll ever comprehend how Medwick can be in and Johnson nowhere close.
18. Bus Clarkson (18) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO.
19. Alejandro Oms (19) He's definitely a candidate, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
(19A Richie Ashburn, 19B Biz Mackey)
20. Jake Beckley. (20) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. Similar to Bell.
(20A Clark Griffith)
21. Charlie Keller (21) Now I’m seeing him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF.
(21A Cool Papa Bell, 21B Max Carey)
22. Phil Rizzuto (22) Now I’m not so sure why I initally liked him so much. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, which is less certain.
23. Ben Taylor (23) Top 3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM.
(23A Sam Thompson, 23B Rube Foster)
24. Bob Elliott (24) Right now, appears a little better than Traynor and a little worse than Clarkson and Boyer. I’m a 3B fan, but I don’t know that he’s the guy to support.
25. Edd Roush (25) Maybe he was a great player in Oakland City, but it was his choice to be there, so tough luck.
26. Vern Stephens (26) Could be higher, but I am sure he’s behind Rizzuto.
(26A Hughie Jennings)
27. George Sisler (27) Might be underrated, but I just don't like the dropoff.
28. Nellie Fox (28) Just can't have him ahead of Doerr & Gordon. Played longer, but didn't have much more value. The defensive advantage doesn't make up for the lack of offense.
29. Bucky Walters (29) A strong peak, but the wartime factor is just too strong for a marginal case like this.
30. Ralph Kiner (30) Like I said for Keller's comment, I prefer him among the peak outfielders. Just see him as a little bit better in several ways.
31. Roger Bresnahan
32. Charley Jones
33. Dave Bancroft
34. Vic Willis
35. Pie Traynor
36. Bobby Veach
37. Burleigh Grimes
38. Elston Howard
39. Spottswood Poles
40. Bill Byrd

56. Hugh Duffy. The first time I’ve ever had a top-10 returnee anywhere near this low. I have him very close to Mike Griffin – played a little longer, had a better peak, but they’re almost identical hitters and Griffin was clearly a better fielder. I just don’t see him at all.

1. Ernie Banks (ne) -- Monster peak at SS is too much for me to ignore.2. Larry Doyle (1) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as bad as WARP suggests.3. John McGraw (2) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...4. Cupid Childs (3) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.5. Dick Redding (4) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James. 6. Ralph Kiner (5) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good.7. Gavvy Cravath (6) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles. 8. Charley Jones (7) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.9. George Sisler (8) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.10. Roger Bresnahan (9) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.11. Joe Sewell (10) -- Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.12. Bob Elliott (11) -- Great hitter for five years... not as great as Al Rosen, but much more meat to his career making him more ballot-worthy.13. Billy Pierce (13) -- Fine mid-size career candidate. Scores well in RSAA.14. Jim Bunning (ne) -- Another fine mid-size career candidate who scores well in RSAA. He's not that much better than the glut of borderline guys, but he is indeed better than any of them that I've compared him to. Lots of K's and a workhorse at his peak.15. Bob Johnson (15) -- The OF glut is percolating up onto my ballot. Indian Bob hit well with fine OBP's for poor Athletics teams.

Thanks John & Joe for letting us have another day. Driving 6 hours round trip to see Glavine pitch on Saturday sucked up the free time. I revised my ballot after looking at Win Share records again and further study of the early 1900s Negro League pitchers. I’m including my top 30.

1-Ernie Banks 332 WS
no brainer

2-Dick Redding
Redding & Mendez are now neck & neck for me.

3-Jose Mendez

4-Minnie Minoso 283 WS
Would’ve easily been over 300 if his Negro League years were in majors.

Moore is in my top 30 now and may move up next time with further study. Duffy is #46 on my depth chart with 295 WS. I have 8 outfielders ahead of him. He finished 7th in Win Shares in the 1890s. I may move him up next time after I compare him further against Rice & Ryan.

Only newcomers and Top 20 outfielders have comments. For my opinion on catchers, infielders, and pitchers, see posts 88-90 and 94-95 in the 1973 Ballot Discussion thread.

Each player has their 74-75-76 ballot placement in parentheses. Last year, we elected Joe Gordon (2) and Willard Brown (off, but top-20).

1. Ernie Banks (new) - the comp to Sisler is apt, but Ernie had a more valuable first half [at SS rather than 1B] and a clearly better second half.
2. Jose Mendez (3-1-1)
3. Quincy Trouppe (5-3-3)
4. Charley Jones (never on) - This may seem outrageous, but I did a massive re-eval of eligible OFs (to be published in the 1978 Ballot Discussion) and Jones came out best. Note Pete Browning in my top 25.
5. Wally Schang (9-7-6) - hugely under-rated by the electorate. Caught a lot of games for his era, hit well, played for winning teams.
6. Billy Pierce (6-6-4)
7. Ken Boyer (new-8-5)
8. Jim Bunning (new) - Pierce's career plus two replacement-level seasons. I'm lukewarm on both pitchers' HoM cases, but the backlog is not strong.
9. Joe Sewell (13-15-11) - the best available SS. The latest research on Dobie Moore shows that Moore was no better than Sewell in the same time span.
10. Dick Redding (8-9-8)
11. George Sisler (11-10-14) - Two 7-year halves: one with 154 OPS+, one with 97 OPS+ but a .320 BA! Even in today's offensive era, it's hard to fathom how a .320 BA could lead to a below-average OPS+.
12. Nellie Fox (10-11-9)
13. Jake Beckley (off-off-13)
14. Orestes Minoso (14-12-10) What elevates him above the OF backlog? My post-integration bonus [which is not large - the margins are paper-thin].
15. Rabbit Maranville (never on) - a plus player for a long time.

Sorry for the delay on the voting - very busy last week or so. Here goes...

1977 ballot. Banks and Bunning are the highlights of the new crop. In ’76 we elected two from off my board so people move down a couple of notches.

1. Ernie Banks (-). Solid HOMer and a good ambassador for the sport of baseball to boot.

2. Dick Redding (1). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book.

3. Bob Johnson (2). Let’s get the Win Shares issue out of the way first. The system don’t like him, that’s not the death blow for me. Therefore…

His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 107.1 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

4. Rube Waddell (3). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch. Should get some minor league credit in his early career. Baseball was in the transition from one league to the NL/AL setup and he was bouncing around leagues for awhile but pitching effectively.

5. Edd Roush (4). Star of the 1910s. Another CF which doesn’t seem to hurt in my rankings.

6. Tommy Leach (5). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

7. Hugh Duffy (6). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. He’s got that nice little peak in the early 1890s. The fact he played LF is not a huge minus since it was more important defensively in the earlier eras of the game.

Top 10 Returnees: Sisler(#32), Mendez(#20), Minoso(#17), Kiner(#18). There is a reason they are part of the backlog – each has their good points and bad points. None of these guys would be an awful selection for the Hall.

7. Billy Pierce: Excellent peak/prime pitcher with enough career to make good.

8. Hugh Duffy: Long overlooked, but IMO on the good side of the in/out line.

9. Roger Bresnahan: Not as long overlooked as Duffy but close. He’s a solid catcher candidate and should get HOMed before the project catches up to the HOF. They got this one too.

10. Tony Mullane: Even with all the discounting, he strikes me as better than Welch for sure and better also than Griffith. He gets a year of blacklist credit from me. Let's see, 19th C., blacklisted, yeah the HOF won't get him right ever.

11. Pete Browning: This is the olde tyme portion of my ballot. Browning was a great hitter and a pretty rotten fielder, but he’s still HOM material for me. Another easy miss for the HOF.

12. Wilbur Cooper: Strong prime candidate. Ditto.

13. Cupid Childs: Love the peak/prime, don’t mind that there’s nothing else. Again with the guys the HOF shoulda got years ago.

14. Tommy Leach: Recognizing that jschmeagol was right to create a hybrid ranking for him, I did the same, and this is where he comes out. Previously Leach was juuuuuuuuuust off the end of my HOMable CFs, and when placed at 3B he nipped at Stan Hack’s heals. So I think this placement is reasonable…and a long time coming. In addition, I hope it will set some precedent for my handling of Molitor, Killebrew, and Rose. What, changing positions excuses the HOF?

15. Alejandro Oms: Borderliner’s borderliner. Love to see the data on him.

16. Elston Howard: I mistakenly was looking at a list of MLB-only catchers when I described Howard as likely appearing in the middle of my ballot. He’s just off of it instead, barely but just. He’s right behind Bresnahan and Mackey in my catcher rankings. I’m giving him MiL/NgL credit for 1954 only.

17. Burleigh Grimes: Early Wynn’s 1920s doppelganger. He’s not quite as good as Wynn, but close enough that he’s a HOMer.

18. Vic Willis: Shortish career years wise, but a ton of innings. Strange mix of factors including alternately great/porous defense and run support complicate things, but he’s an end-of-the-line HOMer for me.

19. Dick Redding: Who knows? The fact that the Hall passed on him doesn’t bode well, especially since I’ve never made up my mind clearly about him. I think he’s a HOMer, but I’ll be danged if I can sufficiently and articulately prove it to myself or anyone else.

21. George Van Haltren: I remember when I was his bestest (though not onliest) friend. Some friendships fade away, some blow up, this one’s just sort of cooled. I’m still his friend, just not as friendly as he’d like.

22. George Sisler

23. Edd Roush

24. Arlie Latham

25. Dolf Luque

26. Dobie Moore

Old dudes

Minnie Minoso: Within my top 50.

Ralph Kiner: I’m not a huge fan. Like Minoso he’s around my top 50. I actually see them as virtually equally good candidates. Notice I didn’t say equally good players or similar players. Just candidates. They both have a similar number of plusses and minuses, and as far as their type of player is concerned, they do just about as well as you can without getting my out and out endorsement for HOM election. Either is a “tolerable error” in my judgment, but neither is someone I’ll vote for happily.