Weather forecasts and discussions for Canada

Hurricane Matthew and a possible pattern change

I am sure you have all heard the media reports on Hurricane Matthew and its incredible strength now getting stronger again in the open water off the Florida coast. Currently it’s now a Cat 4, which is the strongest storm to hit Florida since the early 90’s. Looks like it will slowly move north into the Carolina’s by Saturday and die down a little to a Cat 2.

I will be in Myrtle Beach next weekend so I’ll be on the look out for storm damage. Contrary to earlier model runs, the storm will not move north up the coast or impact Southern Que or the Maritime, but actually spin off the Carolina coast until it dies out and heads back to the Florida coast and the Caribbean as smaller low pressure system, thanks to a pretty strong high pressure system moving through Ont and Que moving through this weekend.

Interestingly enough a similar track between Haiti and Cuba then along the Southern US coast back 1954 brought Hurricane Hazel straight through to Southern Ont. This was one of the worst storms to hit Ontario and caused significant damage along with flooding and death toll in Toronto.

Looking ahead after Oct.13 – 14th according to one model (the GFS) there is the potential for shots of colder weather with only brief warm ups in between. This could bring the first frost to central and Eastern Ont.

Meanwhile earlier model runs of the more reliable Euro model did show heat building back through various systems from the midwest during the same period. I’ll have an update early next week, along with a forecast for Northern Ontario for any moose hunters.