Monday, October 29, 2012

(HD) Hurricane Sandy may cut November SSS by up to 3%, Bloomberg says Hurricane Sandy, while benefitting some supermarkets and home-improvement retailers like Home Depot (HD), may cut same-store-sales for November by up to 3%, according to a Bloomberg report that cites Citigroup (C) analyst Oliver Chen. Chen said that American Eagle (AEO), Limited Brands (LTD), and Urban
Outfirres (URBN), are among companies that have the highest percentage of stores in the area directly affected by Sandy.

Juggernau​t Trading's Essential Equities Webinar

This material is being provided to you for educational purposes only. No information presented constitutes a recommendation by Legend Trading or its affiliates to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein or to engage in any specific investment strategy. The content neither is, nor should be construed as, an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy, sell, or hold any securities. You are fully responsible for any investment decisions you make. Such decisions should be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs.

Sunday, October 28, 2012

(From BARRON'S) Wall Street took comfort from Facebook's better-than-expected third-quarter earnings release last week, but the report underscored some of the challenges the company faces as it ramps up advertising to win over the investment community. Facebook (ticker: FB) looks overpriced after rising $2.94, or 15%, to $21.94. It now trades at 43 times projected 2012 per-share profit of 51 cents and 34 times estimated 2013 earnings of 64 cents. Google (GOOG), in contrast, wins 17times projected 2012 net. Facebook's price/earnings ratio is significantly understated because analysts ignore roughly 20 cents in annual stock-based compensation, stemming from generous restricted-stock grants to employees. Outside the tech sector, analysts regularly treat stock-based compensation as an expense -- it is, after all -- but tech companies encourage the Street to ignore it in their "pro forma" earnings calculations. If this is factored in, the 2013 P/E rises to 52. Barron's has been bearish on Facebook since before it went public in May. In a cover story ("Not a Fan of Facebook," Sept. 24), we argued that the shares could fall to $15. If revenue and profit growth falter, that scenario could play out. The stock is down about 4% since the article ran. Facebook netted 12 cents a share in the third quarter, a penny above the consensus estimate. Revenue, at $1.26 billion, slightly exceeded expectations, while sales were 32% above the level a year earlier. This prompted some analysts to boost their 2012 profit projections, with the consensus rising two cents,to 51 cents a share. Analysts like Facebook's aggressive attempt to generate ad revenue from its growing base of mobile users. Mobile accounted for 14% of third-quarter ad revenue, up from zero early this year. "We're just getting started with our mobile-product development and monetization," Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said on the company's earnings conference call. While mobile-ad growth is up sharply from a low base, desktop ad-revenue gains have slowed compared with a year earlier. Such revenue was up 17% in the third quarter, versus 26% in the second. But desktop ad revenue slid an estimated 5% in the third quarter, relative to the second quarter. BTIG analyst Richard Greenfield wrote that the Facebook conference call should have been called the "Facebook Monetization Handbook" as management noted many initiatives to wring revenue from its user base of one billion. He contrasts that with Facebook's high-minded emphasis on the user experience inits initial public offering prospectus. The pressures of a weak stock price --which have hurt employees' morale and pocketbooks -- seem to be changing Facebook's priorities. "It's hard not to feel like the user experience has taken a 'back seat' to monetization," Greenfield wrote. Facebook is ramping up "sponsored stories" -- a.k.a. ads, in users' mobile news feeds. That may turn off those who view these as annoying, not informative. "While a compromised user experience is likely tohave little impact on near-term earnings, it is critical to long-term engagement and the long-term viability of the platform," Greenfield wrote. Mobile users also may not spend as much time using Facebook because their experience tends to involve quick visits to Websites, not the more prolonged engagement of thedesktop. All this suggests that Facebook's problems aren't over.

Up coming FREE Seminar:

Juggernau​t Trading's Essential Equities Webinar

This material is being provided to you for educational purposes only. No information presented constitutes a recommendation by Legend Trading or its affiliates to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein or to engage in any specific investment strategy. The content neither is, nor should be construed as, an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy, sell, or hold any securities. You are fully responsible for any investment decisions you make. Such decisions should be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs.

***DISCLOSURE: Shorted FB pre market at exactly up an even $5 at $24.55 for a scalp short - $23.88 first fib target to cover

This material is being provided to you for educational purposes only. No information presented constitutes a recommendation by Legend Trading or its affiliates to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein or to engage in any specific investment strategy. The content neither is, nor should be construed as, an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy, sell, or hold any securities. You are fully responsible for any investment decisions you make. Such decisions should be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Juggernau​t Trading's Essential Equities Webinar

Tim
will be providing a topic review for his 5 Day Live "Essential Equities
Trading Course" given during live market trading hours November 12th
through 16th. In Depth Topic reviews and pointers will be given covering
the course content listed below. Tim will be using live trading
simulations to review recent events in the markets and how they pertain
to these essential fundamental topics. If your beginner or even a
seasoned veteran trader don't miss this rare opportunity to review these
essential topics that apply to most successful traders in our
constantly evolving dynamic market.

Tim Kelleher has been in the
middle of the electronic securities trading industry for the past two
decades. Beginning at Instinet in 1992, Tim moved on to Broadway Trading
in 1997 where he became a full-time trader. Trading with the Boca Raton
Broadway "SOES Bandits", Tim developed a style and eye for momentum
trading and scalping. Over the years Tim has founded and worked with
several top trading, and trading education companies. He excels in
pre-market trading events, as well as trading morning gaps and opening
inefficiencies. Tim is also versed in and employs intra-day trending
trades, capitulation trades, fundamental news trading, and technical
analysis-based trades. In almost 20 years of trading, Tim has extensive
experience with most types of profitable trading styles.

This material is being provided to you for educational purposes only. No information presented constitutes a recommendation by Legend Trading or its affiliates to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein or to engage in any specific investment strategy. The content neither is, nor should be construed as, an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy, sell, or hold any securities. You are fully responsible for any investment decisions you make. Such decisions should be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Shares of eBay hit an eight-year high last week, following a strong third-quarter earnings report. At $50, the stock is up 65% on the year -- and 131% since our bullish cover story three years ago ("Make a Bid," Aug. 3, 2009). Higher bids on the shares could be limited from here. At the time of our story, eBay's (ticker: EBAY) new CEO, John Donahoe, was trying to turn the online auctioneer into a broader retail play, buoyed by PayPal, its surging payment system. Donahoe has delivered. Fixed-price sales now make up 66% of the business on eBay's marketplace, and PayPal has 117 million active users across the globe. We revisited the e-tailer five months ago, arguing that PayPal was still underappreciated by investors ("Connecting the Dots at eBay," Apr. 30). We said the stock could rise 25%, to $50 or more, in a year or two. EBay now trades at 18 times next year's estimates, a multiple close to that of Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA), the powerful payment networks. PayPal's active user base jumped 14% in the third quarter, but the growth in per-user spending slowed for the fifth consecutive quarter, according to Susquehanna Financial Group. With a rich multiple and possibly slowing growth, eBay has lost much of its " Buy It Now" appeal.

Citigroup's new chief executive faces very high expectations. So do the bullish options on the big bank's stock. Almost since the moment investors learned that Vikram Pandit was out as chief executive, and Michael Corbat, a Mr. Fix-It, was in, investors began aggressively buying bullish calls, in the expectation that the shares (ticker:C) would advance. Previously, they had been purchasing bearish puts. When the CEOnews was released Tuesday, Citi shares were around $36. Immediately, investors bought October $38 calls. They bet right. The stock hit a 52-week high of $38.48 Wednesday. Now, with the stock still trading around a one-year high, many traders are positioning for it to rise sharply higher in the next few months, by picking up calls that would increase in value if the shares trade above $45. A further 30% gain might seem implausible, but Citi's changes come at an interesting time -- for the financial sector and for the bank.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Thanks for checking - Feel free to contact me regarding trading services, education and access to my daily guest appearance broadcast. Tim@affinitytrading.com
***DISCLOSURE:
This material is being provided to you for educational purposes only. No information presented constitutes a recommendation by Legend Trading or its affiliates to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein or to engage in any specific investment strategy. The content neither is, nor should be construed as, an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy, sell, or hold any securities. You are fully responsible for any investment decisions you make. Such decisions should be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs.

This material is being provided to you for educational purposes only. No information presented constitutes a recommendation by Legend Trading or its affiliates to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein or to engage in any specific investment strategy. The content neither is, nor should be construed as, an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy, sell, or hold any securities. You are fully responsible for any investment decisions you make. Such decisions should be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs.