Green Pool flags double trouble for sugar demand hopes

July 03, 2017 at 3:22 PM

Green Pool highlighted the threat to sugar consumption from the likes of health concerns and rival sweeteners as it raised by 837,000 tonnes its forecast for the looming world sugar production surplus.

The Australia-based sugar consultancy revised up to 5.55m tonnes its forecast for the global output surplus in 2017-18, taking it to the largest since 2013-14.

The upgrade reflected in part a nudge higher to 188.4m tonnes in the estimate for production, prospects for which "have been boosted significantly by the high prices of the last 12 months or so", during which period they have averaged 19.08 cents a pound.

Output at that level would be up 10.6m tonnes year on year.

'Consumption is struggling'

However, Green Pool's revision to its stocks forecast was down in the main to a reduction of more than 500,000 tonnes, to 181.9m tonnes, in the estimate for global consumption in 2017-18.

That represents an increase of just 2.6m tonnes year on year.

Sugar demand "is struggling – facing high domestic prices in many countries, assisted by high tariffs and duty barriers, and high import prices from the global surge in the past year", the group said.

"But sugar consumption also faces health concerns and sugar taxes in many countries, not just developed countries, limiting its usage."

Additionally, rival sweetener such as high fructose corn syrup and low calorie alternatives "have made inroads into sugar usage where high prices have provided a market for them".

Long-term growth slowdown

Green Pool lowered to 1% its forecast for average annual sugar consumption growth ahead, well below historic rates of increase.

"Traditionally 2% or more growth has been the norm."

The comments come amid increasing debate over the future of sugar demand, with concerns of slowing growth viewed as a big factor in the tumble in New York prices back below 13 cents a pound over the past week,

Brazil's Sao Martinho this week termed "not very probable" ideas of a fall in demand in India.

In fact, New York's October contract soared 6.3% to 13.56 cents a pound in late deals on Thursday, in a rally attributed to a rash of short-covering, triggered by ideas that prices had reached such low levels that Brazilian mills would be tempted en masse to covert cane into ethanol rather than the sweetener.

'Prices collapsed faster than we had imagined'

Indeed, Green Pool rated as a "risk" to its expanded forecast for the world sugar surplus in 2017-18 the idea that Brazilian mills might increasingly favour ethanol over the sweetener.

"Sugar prices have collapsed faster than we had imagined, and if they fall much further, we may need to cut" an estimate of 35.5m tonnes for sugar output from Brazil's key Centre South region.

"Massive premiums that sugar held over hydrous ethanol over the past year have all but disappeared.

"We may soon be back in a situation where hydrous [ethanol] is paying a premium to sugar."

Pakistan curveball

The group also cut its estimate for the world sugar output deficit in 2016-17 by 1.93m tonnes, raw value, to 2.04m tonnes, citing an enhanced estimate for Pakistan's production.

The Pakistan Sugar Mills Association said last month that the country's sugar production surged to 7.05 mln tonnes, tel quel, in 2016-17, from 5.08m tonnes last season.

Green Pool attributed the output jump to "high, government-fixed cane prices and substantial diversion by farmers of land from cotton to cane".

The figure had met with "some disbelief around the market, given it happened in the middle of that industry's negotiations with its government over export quotas and export subsidies".

The global sugar surplus is expanding as Brazil, Thailand and the European Union drive world production to record, according to Green Pool Commodity Specialists. Supplies will outpace demand by 7.1 million metric tons in the 2017-18 season that starts in October in most countries, a 29 percent increase from a May forecast.

Green Pool highlighted the threat to sugar consumption from the likes of health concerns and rival sweeteners as it raised by 837,000 tonnes its forecast for the looming world sugar production surplus.
The Australia-based sugar consultancy revised up to 5.55m tonnes its forecast for the global output surplus in 2017-18, taking it to the largest since 2013-14.

It’s not this year’s price crash that haunts the $150 billion sugar industry. It’s the fear of worse to come.
Raw sugar’s 16 percent drop ranks it bottom of the 22 raw materials on the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Shocks to demand in top consumer India and prospects of more European supply are helping shift the market to a surplus, hurting prices. Yet beyond such market dampeners, hang darker clouds.
After decades of stable demand growth, almost doubling per person since 1960, the world is heading for a tipping point as shoppers turn against the cola and candy blamed for an obesity epidemic in the rich world. At the same time, sugar has to compete with cheap syrups increasingly used in processed food.
"Growth is not what it’s been," Tom McNeill, managing director of Green Pool, said in an interview. "There is undoubtedly a move by global bottlers and by a lot of global food manufacturers to reduce the sugar content in their products."

The "war on sugar" being waged by governments and consumers to combat public health emergencies like diabetes is slowing growth in global demand, which along with other factors could signal a fundamental shift in consumption ahead.
Consumption may grow at its slowest pace in seven years in 2017/18, according to analyst group Platts Kingsman. It forecasts a rise of 1.04 percent, nearly half the average growth of about 2 percent per year over the last decade.
"Consumption is generally stagnating in developed countries," Tom McNeill, director at commodity analyst group Green Pool, told Reuters.

Global sugar exports will exceed demand this season and the next as India brings in less than expected and the European Union boosts output, according to Tropical Research Services, which advises hedge funds.
Exports will beat import demand every quarter through September 2018, TRS estimates. The trade-flow surplus will total 398,000 metric tons in the third quarter, reversing a previous forecast for a shortage of more than double that amount, said Sean Diffley, the firm’s head of sugar and ethanol research.

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Thurs 11th May 2017
PRINTABLE VERSION EMAIL TO A FRIEND RSS FEEDS 13:57 UK, 5th May 2017, by William Clarke
Green Pool trims sugar deficit forecast, a touch...
Sugar analyst Green Pool only slightly trimmed its forecast for a hefty sugar surplus next season, as consumption grows only sluggishly despite easing sugar prices.
"Consumption is a major issue for sugar, with global consumption growing only slowly," Green Pool said.
"Some growth is being seen in developing countries, while consumption is actually falling in some developed countries."

Posted Thu at 11:54am
Sugar being stored at one of Queensland Sugar Limited's bulk terminals
PHOTO: The global sugar price has hit a four year high overnight. (Supplied by Queensland Sugar Limited)
MAP: Mackay 4740
The global sugar price continues its strong rally this year, jumping 5 per cent in overnight trading in New York.
It is currently buying 20.82 US cents a pound, its highest level since August 2012.
A worldwide supply shortage plus a slow harvest in Brazil has seen sugar attract increased interest from investors.

* Harvest weather returns to Brazil's sugar regions
* Weak pound supports London cocoa
By David Brough
LONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - Raw sugar futures on ICE held
steady on Monday near a 2-1/2-year peak with dealers focused on
improving harvest weather in Brazil, while arabica coffee was
little changed as worries over frost risks eased.
A weakening pound, pressured by concerns over the coming
British vote on EU membership, gave support to London cocoa.
Raw sugar steadied, with a focus on improving conditions for
the cane crush in centre-south Brazil.
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port loadings to get back to normal," a broker said.
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long position in raw sugar contracts on ICE they have held since
early May in the week ended June 7, according to U.S. data.