Bulgaria’s economic and political situation remains tense, as yet another government stepped down, the local financial system was shaken by organised bank runs, and bilateral relations with Russia soured markedly due to the halt of construction of the South Stream pipeline.

Algeria’s social situation remains stable as President Bouteflika was elected for his fourth term in office. The government presented a new five-year plan that once more aims to diversify the economy away from the hydrocarbon sector.

Qatar’s economy is likely to expand by a robust 6% in 2014, although it remains highly dependent on the hydrocarbon sector. Moreover, tensions with its GCC neighbours remain a challenge for Qatar given its ambition as an international peace broker.

Domestic stability in Egypt has improved markedly and the economy is showing timid signs of recovery. The government has engaged in bold reforms and generous aid from the GCC countries gives Egypt the financial space to gradually implement them.

Mozambique’s economic growth remains strong, but increasing fiscal imbalances might become a challenge in the medium term. A ceasefire agreement between Renamo and Frelimo represents a significant improvement of domestic security and stability.

The reform process in Indonesia is not expected to speed up markedly under the new government, but growth is expected to accelerate somewhat. Indonesia remains vulnerable to deteriorating financial markets sentiment.

Weaker oil markets are hurting Saudi Arabia given the high reliance of the economy and government income on the hydrocarbon sector. Fortunately, strong financial buffers provide sufficient mitigation for now.

Mexico’s economic growth starts to pick up and its economic outlook is also improving, as all intended structural reforms are approved. The most important one, energy, is likely to contribute the most.

Russia’s economy is slowing down as a result of western sanctions and a drop in oil prices. Its outlook has also deteriorated due to lower investor confidence and a strengthening of the government’s control over the country.

The political environment in Bangladesh has calmed in recent months and the AL government is likely to sit out its term in office. Growth is strengthening, albeit only very slightly, and the current account surplus will narrow further.

Economic growth in Taiwan is recovering somewhat this year thanks to rising exports and investment. Protests could slow the pace of further Cross-Strait cooperation, but policies towards mainland China are likely to remain pragmatic.