How likely it is that USDCAD is going up

Here is the first chart which gives us some clues. This is NOT the USDCAD but US Index chart. We can see clearly a Wedge has formed for the last couple of weeks around a strong Resistance zone , highlighted by a red box on the chart. It is now broken down. I would rather assume a back-tracking from this point on in the down direction, with a possibility all the way to the upper trend channel line shown on the chart in cyan color. This fact (a US Dollar on defense and retreat) makes it more difficult to foresee an advance in USDCAD . Analysis on OIL and USDCAD will follow shortly.