Mark_Cangila wrote:Some setup spec:I see a few possibilities:1. The game started 9-22. The game started 8-2-13. The game started 7-2-1-14. The game started 8-35. The game started 7-2-2

1 and 3 are hugely unlikely.

In scenario 2, the 1 may be an SK or cult. If they are an SK, we are at 6-1-1. If they are a cult we are anywhere between 6-1-1 to 4-1-3.

In scenario 4, we are at 6-2

In scenario 5 we are at 5-1-2

Looking at this, I think the only scenario where it isn't beneficial to lynch Vicarin today is if there's a cult (IMHO unlikely but not impossible I guess). In any other scenario we have nothing to lose by lynching him, and there's a small chance (assuming survivor or something) that game could just end today.

My gut is that it's probably 8-2-1 with an SK that has been withholding and/or having bad luck with blocks or protects, FWIW.

LaserGuy wrote:Sure. I'm a voyeur. I targeted Madge N1 but was blocked. I targeted Vicarin N2, but he had no visitors.

That is plausible.

I think my claim is obvious. I'll be explicit if several others wants me to, but there is some advantage to keeping the details hidden. I did target Madge N1 and her hints D2 lead me to believe she got an exact duplicate of my power. There could be a cult, but my two top suspects for cult leader have been roleblocked once each so we have an extra day and should probably just lynch Vic so he doesn't occupy our RB. And if the game doesn't end that will add clarity to the situation. From Sabrar's flavor description I think he is cleared actually, as he wouldn't have know to describe it as up all night even though he had no action. He'd have been unsure if the power was only loud because it blocked his recruiting.

@Mark: Can you please tell us what your secondary win is? Also, is your watcher power usable every night?

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Forgot that LaserGuy got cleared by Bessie. From tone I'm eliminating Sabrar and Bessie. Mpolo and Madge are unlikely. I think that only leaves Mark who I find even plausibly to be non-town. I say we lynch Vic and roleblock Mark and see what happens.

@mpolo why did you choose your targets N1 and N2?

"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

Madge wrote:BTW, it seems that fate has a sense of humour: my secondary win condition is to be the first person voting for the person who gets voted off. So hopefully I'll survive a while and when we have a consensus target I can do the honours. I think I have to do it twice, or maybe two thirds of the time. I can check my role PM if it matters to anyone but it doens't particularly matter to me because I don't think I'll be able to achieve it anyway.

LaserGuy wrote:My gut is that it's probably 8-2-1 with an SK that has been withholding and/or having bad luck with blocks or protects, FWIW.

Why not a recruit or a mafia supporter?

Most of the claimed powers look quite townie and don't really look like good fits for this. Though there is at least one interesting possibility in this regard. I also feel that the D3 flavor tends to suggest another faction.

Why would Vicarin perform the N1 kill instead of wam?

Presumably so that wam could use his redirect as well, though Vic's flip may give us extra information here.

Why would Vicarin think Sabrar is commuter, not bulletproof, if Vicarin performed the kill?

Presumably so that wam could use his redirect as well, though Vic's flip may give us extra information here.

Why do you think that wam could perform the kill or use his power, or must use both on the same target? If we have a 2 person mafia with chat, it appears as if Vicarin performed the kill and used role cop on N1, both on different targets.

LaserGuy was in that "seems mostly townie, but not 100% sure" range that often gets targeted with a kill. I didn't want to target the claimed cop, because that would have just blocked the cop. Sabrar was both a town read, and somebody I would have a hard time identifying as scum, so both reasons for jailing were present.

Nobody helped me with mine yesterday, by the way, so I need a vote at day end if I'm going to achieve it (2 out of three days would cover me if I am NKed).

I think that there has to be a third faction, simply because of the flavor. I suspect it is a one-person faction. I sincerely hope that it's not a cult, so maybe we got lucky with jailing/bulletproof. Or it's more exotic, like an arsonist/poisoner, etc.

As things stand, I think I am willing to just lynch Vicarin to remove one kill. Unless we have a real reason to suspect a cult.

Presumably so that wam could use his redirect as well, though Vic's flip may give us extra information here.

Why do you think that wam could perform the kill or use his power, or must use both on the same target? If we have a 2 person mafia with chat, it appears as if Vicarin performed the kill and used role cop on N1, both on different targets.

Huh, I could have sworn that I read in wam's role PM that he couldn't use his strongman and redirect at the same time. Not sure then. Could be Vic is a ninja. Or you may be right and he's a recruiter of some kind.

First of all we need Vicarin's flip to understand what's been going on. Among other things it feels weird to have all of Doc, Jailer, Backup, Absorber and Bulletproof in the setup if scum has Strongman and no incentive not to use it.

Next stop if we assume cult then we need to find the leader asap to see who they might have recruited.Mark: very unlikely, proven townie power which is useless for CLbessie: very unlikely, no counter-claim for towniest power which also would be useless to CLBoomFrog/Madge: cross-confirming each-other but only on D3, no other confirmation, can be cult together with BoomFrog probably being CL given Madge's D1 request.LaserGuy: no proven power however needs to be GF as wellmpolo: has proven RB but nothing else

We would need to confirm BoomFrog using LaserGuy's voyeur (preferably on myself for my second win-con but it isn't that important), with Mark watching LaserGuy to make sure he's not recruited. Meanwhile mpolo could target Madge for another confirmation (unless roleblock prevents absorb which it normally shouldn't).

If we're looking for third scum then the question becomes what type s/he is but this could be greatly simplified by Vicarin's flip.

Had to go back and reread this to think about some things more critically. I've just loosely categorized things here that seem interesting.

wam at the end of D2 stuff

wam could have saved himself by voting Vicarin at end of day. I can't remember if he was around right at end of day or not, but he was there at least 15 minutes before. bus Vic, strongman somebody, and redirect bessie in hopes she's targeted him and gives the appearance of a clear. He could be going into D3 in decent shape. He may have been banking on me doing a last switch to NL, but I think it should have been clear I wasn't in favor of that. Vic's claim that he was supposed to die before wam to reveal his secondary wincon seems to reinforce this. So taking the fall here for Vic is weird. Vic wasn't around, but I'm assuming wam had the go ahead to bus since he already tried to earlier in the day.

About the night kills

Vic is supposedly looking for the roleblocker and kills heury for it. There's this:

I killed h_a because I thought he was a roleblocker, and that I couldn't win after claiming if he was around (cause I'm not a strongman and all). Clearly, I was mistaken.

But the logic here feels a bit off. Surely the only way that Vic would ever live in this scenario is if we RB him indefinitely while we cult hunt? Hmm. I was expecting that the play here was for Vic to kill Madge and then claim a result on her. Or kill not!Madge and claim to be roleblocked. I'm wondering if the whole purpose of this maneouver was to conceal who wam redirected. This points to scum!BoomFrog.

Vic's reason for shooting Sabrar N1 does not make a whole lot of sense. Sabrar was scumreading both of them, sure, but I think others were as well. Not using the strongman kill here is also unless there's some ulterior motive.

About Madge

Interesting that Vic knew Madge was absorber before she claimed, here:

Does anyone want to own up to targeting Madge N1 so we know how she targeted bessie?

Which Madge seems to acknowledge (though why Vic would know she could target bessie here is also a bit odd):

If you are a rolecop, you should know that I'm not lying. Unless I'm some sort of role miller.

But Vic seems to deny anyway:

If you are what you claim to be, YOU should know I didn't target you. So I don't know that you're not lying.

Something is very off in this interaction.

There's some weird inconsistencies from Madge about what sorts of powers she claims to able to observe, e.g. here:

I didn't know Mark targeted me, for example. But he clearly did as I didn't tell anyone I targeted Bessie last night.

Madge's interactions are very troubling. Note that she claimed D2 she knew Vic hadn't targeted her. It also feels kind of anti-Town to me that she was allowing us to base our night play on the fact that targeted her could produce clears, when this doesn't actually appear to be the case, or at least, does not appear to be so universally. I'm willing to consider jailing Vic and lynching Madge at this point.

Madge claiming to use her power to doc bessie here also is a little bizarre given bessie's claim.

Safe claims

Ha, I WISH we were given safe claims.

I suspect it's probably true that they were not given safe role PM claims, at least. Because wam is Romanda and Romanda's faction is specifically the name of the scum team, I assume wam at least probably had another name he could give since otherwise we could break the game by mass claiming flavor. There's not really reason for jimbob not to provide safe names here since there's a BAZILLION characters in this flavor to choose from, and not giving them just inconveniences the people who don't know the flavor.

About BoomFrog

BoomFrog wrote:I know I'm good but I've been confirmed by the town cop and I was pro lynching both of the confirmed scum. I don't think there's a third member of the Vic wam team because the only plausible candidates are LaserGuy and me, and Laserguy's definitely not on their team.

First sentence is not really true. Second sentence might be a scumslip.

BoomFrog wrote:Forgot that LaserGuy got cleared by Bessie. From tone I'm eliminating Sabrar and Bessie. Mpolo and Madge are unlikely. I think that only leaves Mark who I find even plausibly to be non-town. I say we lynch Vic and roleblock Mark and see what happens.

This is an awful suggestion. BoomFrog not being suspicious of Madge or Sabrar at this stage also gets a

Miscellaneous

I'm noting that many apparently town powers (mine (my powers are confused if too many people target the same person as me), bessie's (macho), moody's (non-consec), BoomFrog's (can't vote), mpolo's (loud), heury (miller) at least) all have some kind of restriction, downside, or modifier associated with them. wam's did not.

LaserGuy wrote:Interesting that Vic knew Madge was absorber before she claimed, here:

In all fairness, it wasn’t that hard to guess.

LaserGuy wrote: It also feels kind of anti-Town to me that she was allowing us to base our night play on the fact that targeted her could produce clears, when this doesn't actually appear to be the case, or at least, does not appear to be so universally.

I’m going to make a (gulp) meta read and this is entirely within Madge’s meta.

BoomFrog wrote: I think my claim is obvious. I'll be explicit if several others wants me to, but there is some advantage to keeping the details hidden.

Madge wrote:BTW, it seems that fate has a sense of humour: my secondary win condition is to be the first person voting for the person who gets voted off. So hopefully I'll survive a while and when we have a consensus target I can do the honours. I think I have to do it twice, or maybe two thirds of the time. I can check my role PM if it matters to anyone but it doens't particularly matter to me because I don't think I'll be able to achieve it anyway.

Why hasn’t anyone else pointed this out?

BoomFrog is right in that I get to duplicate powers that target me; I want to duplicate a power that doesn't interfere with my votes so I can start going for my secondary wincon. Otherwise Town's best chance is me pursuing the primary (i.e. town) wincon by not voting.

The reason I'm inconsistent with my claim about my ability to tell who targeted me is my role PM literally says (paraphrased) "you'll copy the power of whoever targets you in the night. you can't get some powers this way". It doesn't tell me what powers, and I just assume that it's probably talking about e.g. cult recruits or night kills not working and that something "standard" like a cop, watcher, tracker, it will be copied, but I can't 100% guarantee it, so I thought if Vic knew my role, then he rolecopped me, and it turns out I can't see rolecops / scum powers for whatever reason

I absorbed boomfrog's power but only boomfrog's

I'm uncomfortabel about Vic wanting to fall on his sword - people are right, it's too convenient - but I'm willing to allow it to happen. A bird in the hand and all.

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Madge wrote:BoomFrog is right in that I get to duplicate powers that target me; I want to duplicate a power that doesn't interfere with my votes so I can start going for my secondary wincon. Otherwise Town's best chance is me pursuing the primary (i.e. town) wincon by not voting.

Madge, if your secondary is as claimed, you can’t win at this point. There’s not going to be enough days remaining for you to have the first vote 2/3 days. Even two would be tough. How can targeting you now and removing your voting restriction help you with your secondary win con?

Vicarin wrote:I'd like to just randomly lie for no reason, but it's with BoomFrog.

I appreciate that you answered the question.

bessie wrote: What is the setup?Am I non-sane? Is my sanity variable?Why didn’t wam perform the N1 kill?Why did Sabrar think he was roleblocked N2 if he didn’t have an action?Who has the ter’angreal?Why is Madge getting worse at breadcrumbs?Why not a recruit or a mafia supporter?Why would Vicarin perform the N1 kill instead of wam?Why would Vicarin think Sabrar is commuter, not bulletproof, if Vicarin performed the kill?Why is Vicarin willing to fall on the sword today? Does this fit with his meta? Does it make sense with his personality?Then what was Vicarin up to on N1 that he doesn’t want us to know about?wam's role pm is pretty powerful. Why didn't they try harder to save him instead of a ninja role cop that was going to be outed D3 anyway?If I was redirected, who was I redirected to?Madge what is your secondary win con?Why did Madge change her secondary win con claim?Who has the ter’angreal? Why has no one claimed it?Why is Sabrar in the wrong fish bowl?

Madge wrote:BoomFrog is right in that I get to duplicate powers that target me; I want to duplicate a power that doesn't interfere with my votes so I can start going for my secondary wincon. Otherwise Town's best chance is me pursuing the primary (i.e. town) wincon by not voting.

Madge, if your secondary is as claimed, you can’t win at this point. There’s not going to be enough days remaining for you to have the first vote 2/3 days. Even two would be tough. How can targeting you now and removing your voting restriction help you with your secondary win con?

Vicarin, who has the ter’angreal?

I'm bad at maths, that's all. I need to be the first to vote for the lead vote-getter on 2 days (I double checked), so if I did today and tomorrow then I'd be able to 2ndwin, or tomorrow and the following day. I'm not voting today because using my power is better for town than voting, especially if we're voting a consensus pick.

I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

LaserGuy wrote:@Sabrar, mpolo, BoomFrog, Madge: Do the protective powers that you have/had suggest in any way that they protect against recruitment?

It does not hint at anything either way, which means I would assume it's the standard nightkill only production of a doctor.

Scum got some very strong powers to compensate for all the times powers. If there is a third member of the mafia they probably are a Godfather to complete the ninja, strongmen trifecta. Or possibly unrollblockable. Again from tone and player actions I don't believe there's a third member of their faction. (but I can see how one would be suspicious of me. Laserguy's right, I strongly supported with him and Vick against the crowd, day 1. And although I was suspicious of them D2 I don't think I made that clear in thread. I wasn't voicing my opinions clearly because I was confident Bessie's result plus Madge confirming I'm a doctor was sufficient to prove I'm town.

There's one more detail about my power which I'm debating about revealing. I guess I'll decide tomorrow morning. but I think it's better to keep it secret until day 4 unless it's going to make a difference in the lynch. Which, I can't really see us doing anything besides lynching Vic and having mpolo roleblock his best guess at cult recruiter.

"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos