Wednesday, 14 August 2013

Today Ed Miliband was hit by eggs. It's pretty symbolic of the Labour party in the last few weeks, as MP after commentator after MP has thrown eggy suggestions to the leader of the opposition.

It has been a turnaround in fortunes for the two parties, the first change since the Omnishambles budget. The polls have narrowed but not quite turned yet, but there is a new trend setting in and Mr Miliband needs to change the narrative quickly. The story at the moment is of drift, no clear message and wavering policies.

A shadow reshuffle is in the offing and shadow ministers have been silent over the summer and when they have spoken up, like Chris Bryant, they've made a hash of it. The rumour is that Ed Miliband has been focussing on his conference speech, but a speech rarely changes the national mood, and while he has been silent the Government has been making hay (which is usually the opposition's job in summer).

It appears that the uptick in the economy is obliterating the Labour message of 'cutting too fast and too soon' and the public are now swinging behind the cuts more firmly. It's funny that the biggest cuts were enacted this April and so if the cuts were going to have an effect on the economy, you'd expect a contraction - in fact there was further expansion. It seems confidence and Europe have been a bigger factor. Anyway, the new Labour message is about the cost of living. They won't tell you has been getting worse since 2005, never mind the biggest recession since the depression.

The next few weeks and months will be interesting...

Just as an aside, the BBC are referring to today's German growth figures of 0.7% as strong, but referred to the UK's of 0.6% as weak. Bias? I couldn't say.