The attempted coup in Turkey will not dampen the government's focus on the infrastructure and construction sectors and we expect the government to remain in power. While this is good news for Turkey's significant project pipeline and infrastructure policies, we note that investor sentiment towards the government, which is likely to assume a greater interventionist and authoritarian approach to the economy, may turn increasingly negative. This risks the continued success of the various PPPs currently being considered.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- After a strong H116, we expect the construction sector to slow significantly over the second half of the year. Nonetheless given the strength in the first half we have upped our expectations for growth in 2016 to 3.8%, while our 2017 forecast remains unchanged at 3.9% y-o-y.

- Turkey is likely to move in a more authoritarian direction over the next few years, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tightens his grip on power following the failed military coup in July 2016. Meanwhile, Turkey will face rising security risks from Islamic State (IS) and Kurdish separatist groups. Brightspots in the infrastructure sector remain the transport sector, Turkish healthcare PPP projects and the renewables segment - specifically wind. Turkey ranks in ninth place within the Central and Eastern Europe grouping of the RRI, with an overall score of 55.6.

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