E2: Added times for CEST. I will happily add another column for the local times zones, so if someone has a great website for a quick overview, feel free to message me. I tried ESPN, but I live in Europa, so no luck!

Okay, I just wanna take a moment to say I'm just repeating what the numbers say based off experience I'm not gonna have a 90% accuracy rate. I'm sitting at 70% So here's todays picks and chart for anyone who wants to make their own choices.

Asterisk means there on b2bs. Teams on a b2b tend to overperform in the 1Q.

Ignoring b2b Model has a 69.4% success rate (64-28)

Neglecting the effects of a b2b has a 67.4% success rate (91-44)

If you want to neglect the effects of a b2b Which has, based off my data, a 2% higher chance of failing then the picks include

OKC 1Q ML W this was in the wrong category. Portland didn't play last night.

Utah 1Q ML W

LAC 1Q ML (This is one of those games like Phoenix V Spurs/Chicago V. Philadelphia/Minnesota V. Golden State I've warned you about. When a team is favored by 4+ points minimally, they tend to underperform. In other words this is a risky line where if my numbers are correct, Denver covers the Spread 1Q. Not betting. I'm observing this trend over time right now.) T Unbelievable... This can't be a coincidence at this point

Houston ML 1Q W

Atlanta 1Q ML (Same situation as LAC) Has a minimum +5 point favor. L Furthers my point, again. This isn't a coincidence that 75% of the games with a 5+ point favor loses. My guess is most teams underestimate the opponent. Every Game over the past 3 days where a team with a 5+ point favor, the underdog covers the spread. The Data from December also supports this

Model model is profitable when I follow the model long term. It's gonna have some shitty nights. Predicts two upsets tonight with Memphis and Brooklyn. So I'm gonna take those upsets, New Orleans, and Miami and I may lose. That's fine. Because I know that based off my data if I keep taking these MLs long term and place solid bets on them then over time I should come out on top. It's near the end of the season. I know. I'll be back next year with 1000+ games worth of data I analyzed so I know what to pick and what not to pick. Please. I know Houston lost. Don't send me guilt messages about how I lost you money. I know you lost. You don't think I lost too? I won't favor games anymore to help with people who feel that way. Here's the results. You have a link to the post. Make your own decisions. I posted where my money is. What you do now is on you.

I'm not going to apologize for losing. I'm not on the court. I'm a fucking college kid who does this for fun while trying to balance work, school, chairing events on campus, and applying for bullshit jobs at engineering firms. So please. If you hate my picks, no ones forcing you to pick them.

5-3-1 on the day. Sort of expected the Atlanta Loss, or at least expected NY to cover the spread. Same with LAC. Brooklyn and Memphis hurt my BR a little, but not enough to where I'm deterred. Long term model. It's gonna happen. 62.5% on the day so a little below average. If you remove the two I expected to not follow the model protocol it was a 5-2 day which is horrible. Gotta stick with it. OKC was in the wrong column. That would have helped deter the blow to the BR, but I can live. I'll put up tomorrows results when I have time after classes. Neglected a lot of homework today so I may not have time until much later in the day.

I highly encourage you to ignore anyone sending you guilt messages, honestly I am very surprised anyone is stupid enough to do that. This is a forum of discussion and your model has been doing some great work. Also, the model was nearly spot on yesterday, unfortunately you and I both made conscious desicions to not go with some picks, and they went through anyway. Unfortunate. I think Houston and SAS were still the right plays. HOU were shooting the ball better, but some silly mistakes were made in my opinion. Stay strong and ignore guilt messages, because most people here truly appreciate your work. Thanks a lot

I never considered this, and that's oddly reasonable to me. While I do get your point, I think that sending guilt messages to the people who invest their time and so some good work is out of line. I appreciate that perspective a lot, though

I haven't been in the position, so obviously I cannot judge, but while it seems you are very mature and capable of handling it, not everyone is, and it seems not only unfair but silly to push them away. If I follow someone's reasoning and it doesn't come through, I'll always blame myself. I also think assigning blame to others in betting is quite dangerous, because it might encourage some ideas that it's just "those idiots that I follow on reddit" who can't bet

I tend to be a huge fan of behavioral economics, and I've actually enjoyed the whole thing.

There's something interesting in learning why people bet the way they bet and how they handle failure, success, etc. The responses of bettors to various situations is, in its own right, very interesting data.

Dude that sucks if people are sending you guilt messages. Like Danelander said, ignore them as you are not forcing their hand to finalize bets. I'm sure you've made lots of people on this sub money and we all hope a couple bitter users dont stop you from posting your daily analysis. 70% accuracy is alot better than other people can claim. Keep up the great work....unless you keep losing me money...then fuck you

Does your data have anything on the bucks? I'm just hoping they don't rest a bunch of players but someone earlier said that they're doing a big event this game and broadcasting it back to the Bucks home stadium. So hopefully they're motivated. Idk though, any opinion?

Has Philly favored in the HCA area by -0.1 which means Philly has a chance at an upset which I'd be unwilling to bet on. You could make the argument that it's a small chance, but I'm not one to do so. In my opinion it's a toss up.

Ahaha don't worry I don't hold you accountable for any of my bets. Although, if you wanna reimburse that $500 from houston 1Q yesterday, I wouldn't object ;). Just fucking around, in case you didn't catch the sarcasm.

It's all good. This is way too weird that the higher the data the gets the more inaccurate it is. The numbers said Clippers by 10, but my historical data says Clippers should have lost. They tied so not bad, but wow.

Yea I ran into about 18 of these over the first 3 weeks in december and something like 14 of them either were upsets or the favored team won by 1-2 points. It was ridiculous. I thought it was outlier data, but these last few days make me think otherwise. I'll have to analyze the whole season before I know anything definitive.

Oh yea. I personally have very little faith in the Memphis pick, but after going through my data I'm trusting Memphis pulls this out. I couldn't tell you how. Should be interesting to watch. OKC is on the b2b model so I didn't even play that one.

looking for a blow out from GSW. So I'm trying to avoid betting on this as I want to enjoy watching it, but it's going to be hard for me not to grab a ML bet on them if they're down by 8 or more. Curry will just pull a Westbrook but from the 3 point line lol. Should be great.

Yea that would be interesting to see. If for some reason GS does lose the 1Q grabbing the ML might be an option. I personally don't think it will happen, but I'm gonna trust the model.

I was looking for a play where GSW is getting outscored so I could put money on them for 2nd half but after that 1st Q... They seem to want a blowout (Like I expected) at this rate and have a bench to back it up.

No one is siding with the Bulls here? The Nets are on the second night of a back to back and if I remember correctly they got worked yesterday. So it's the beat up Nets vs the Bulls with D. Rose back. Just wondering why more people aren't siding with the Bulls here.

Well, Hinrich is most likely out tonight. The Bulls play close with bad teams (down most of the game to the sixers). They are both pretty even with one another ATS. Also, there is a possibility the Bulls could rest their starts early or middle of the game. BK beat a strong Portland team (I think last week). BK steps up against good teams. Back to Back games does kind of worry me though.

BKN/CHI Brooklyn fighting for a playoff spot and Chicago fighting for 3rd spot to face Milwaukee in the playoffs. Is it safe to say both teams (especially Chicago) will show up on defense and we should take the under? The last 5 matchups in a row between these two teams have gone under.

OKC/POR Westbrook suspended for today after his 16th technical yesterday.

Thanks, the line wasn't up when I posted it. That's the 2nd technical they've rescinded for Brody. They really want him on the court lmao He should get another technical tonight just to see if they'll rescind it again.

Bold is the favorite as per lines offered from Pinnacle sportsbook. They are not OP's personal picks. For example:

Cleveland Cavaliers are favored to beat Detroit Pistons by 8pts

You can beat pointspread (Detroit +8 / Cleveland -8) for the same odds as your wager or straight up win/loss (ML) Since Cleveland is the favorite, their odds will not be as good as betting Detroit to win straight up.

I know I said I wasn't going to do unders this week due to how teams are playing to end the season, but these two looks just barely mispriced enough for me to try (like 10 points off). As always, unders tend to be riskier thanks to our friend OT.