Carl Bildt was Sweden’s foreign minister from 2006 to October 2014 and Prime Minister from 1991 to 1994, when he negotiated Sweden’s EU accession. A renowned international diplomat, he served as EU Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN Special Env… read more

"the international community’s response . . ."It is unclear who is the international community. When the United Nations was created some 70 years ago, five countries were each given veto power over the views of the rest of the world. Many think this power has been abused. In 'Free Trade in Chains' [https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/free-trade-in-chains] it is noted that geopolitical power has shifted: the GDP of the G7 was once 70 percent of global GDP; now it is 47 percent and falling.The G20 certainly has the potential to become the new world's international community. Does the EU want to play a role here?Read more

This article is surrealistic and serves only to show that Bildt still follows the "Washington consensus". - North Korea is very unlikely to give in to sanctions. It knows how (un)likely it is that the US will do anything in return. It also knows how Gaddafi ended his life. - China has read Wikileaks and knows that Clinton wants to surround it with anti-missile systems. So mendacious "explanations" will have little effect. - China has seen how the US acted towards Russia. So it knows that if North Korea falls it will have US troops at its borders. It prefers Kim as a neighbor. - the US knows what to do if it wants to de-escalate on the Korean peninsula: stop exercising each year an invasion into North Korea. Stop the sanctions war. Stop all efforts towards regime change. But it doesn't want to do those things. Read more

Carl Bildt says amid the election frenzy in the US and Russia's bombing spree in Syria, North Korea's nuclear activities have come under the radar. He urges world leaders not to underestimate the serious threat that North Korea poses to stability in the region. Last September after a nuclear test Pyongyang described threats of further sanctions as "laughable", vowing to increase its nuclear capabilities. Marking the occasion it demanded the US to recognise it as a “legitimate nuclear weapons state” following its fifth and largest atomic test.This week the US military detected a failed North Korean test launch of an intermediate ballistic missile. Condemnations are one thing, but America's “strategic patience” under Obama may soon come to an end, as the two presidential candidates, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, "have reiterated that the military option must remain on the table – direct US military intervention has always ultimately been rejected."A series of UN resolutions in the past were designed to increase international pressure. The American goal has been to change Kim Jong-un’s strategic calculus by showing him that having nuclear weapons is detrimental to his regime’s survival. Bildt says although "China has agreed to tough sanctions, implementation has been lax, and its leaders have shown a distinct reluctance to tighten the screws on their client further." Even if China has its legitimate concerns about America's commitment to defending South Korea and Japan, its policies are myopic. "Unlike South Korea, which would welcome a collapse of the regime in Pyongyang (at least in theory), China fears the political and economic consequences." On the other hand, China also sees America's presence in the region as a thorn in its side.Bildt urges the US to "reach out to China /and/ to explain the nature of the system and discuss measures that might address its fears." He says South Korea's proposal "to tie the existence of the THAAD system explicitly to North Korea’s nuclear program" is reasonable. "If the latter is eliminated, the missiles would be removed."He suggests talks be held, with the "ultimate goal" of securing "China’s cooperation in developing a comprehensive peace treaty, signed by all regional powers, that normalizes relations with a North Korea that agrees to give up its nuclear weapons and commit to political reform." Unfortunately "past behavior" of the regime showed that China's efforts hadn't brought to fruition.North Korea's survival strategy is to exploit Sino-US strategic mistrust. In recent months America's deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) system to South Korea and China’s unilateral construction in the South China Sea, had pitted the two against each other, enabling Pyongyang to stay afloat, thanks to Beijing's unconditional support. Another controversy is Kim Jong-un’s motivations for pursuing nuclear status, allowing him to bolster his own domestic legitimacy. Simultaneous nuclear and economic development are his two main strategic goals.But the possibility of a regime collapse in North Korea is always real, despite its iron grip on the country. "In such a scenario, a plan – agreed in advance by the US, China, South Korea, and Japan – that covers border control, refugees, port access, and military operations would need to be in place." For the moment China's "buy-in" is crucial to rein in "North Korea’s nuclear ambitions," given its "volatile leadership /that/ could eventually possess long-range nuclear capabilities." No doubt Beijing is keen on avoiding such an outcome, and securing peace and stability in its backyard.﻿ Read more

China seldom takes any action that it does not perceive as being likely to benefit China in some way. So far, a nuclear North Korea has benefited China in many ways. Unless China starts to perceive the actions taken by North Korea as being detrimental to China, I think it makes little, if any, sense to believe that China will be likely to cooperate with other nations in dealing with the nuclear threat posed by North Korea. Read more

I do not remember who it was, perhaps Mr. Michael Green, that said he went to China soon after the second nuclear experiment of North Korea. He met high-ranking officials and experts. He said they all told him without an exception that the North's nuclear weapon least concerned them but that China's economic growth far more mattered to them. Perhaps, as Mr. Kamath commented, nuclear Pyongyang would not be a bad opition to Beijing. It is high time that the United States and Japan, preferably Soul included if possible, denuclearized the North. Perhaps we must be prepared to bear the burdens and the costs. Read more

Mr. Solomon,I agree it is easy to be an arm chair general, but even no true general could think out a perfect solution. "If much is unknown, what seems all but certain is that whoever wins November's US presidential election will confront a fateful decision regarding North Korea sometime during her or his term (Richard Haass/The Coming Confrontation with North Korea, ProSyn)."

Does this mean a preemptive military strike? Would the North not retaliate with all of its artillery aimed at Seoul? And would China simply stand by and do nothing? How easy it is to be an arm chair general!

North Korea is a good weapon in the hands of China. It can easily threaten Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and US, without much of a cost to itself. Though it is difficult for the threat to be effective for the US, as US may disregard North Korea's theoretical independence and fix the blame on China. But it is quite a valuable and a lopsided weapon against the three far eastern rivals of China. Pakistan was a similar state in the hands of the US. Not any more, it has joined the Chinese camp. While other countries have terrorist organisations at their disposal to pursue their foreign policy by stealth, China has two nuclearized, terrorist states at its disposal. Unless the world powers hold China directly responsible for the acts of North Korea and Pakistan, China will get away with murder. Read more

It is correct, China holds all the cards regarding North Korea. May be if one of these North Korean missiles with nuclear warheads fall accidentally in China, will make the Chinese realise what a dangerous game they are playing. Knowing the Chinese though, one should not raise his hopes. Read more

PS On Air: The Super Germ Threat

NOV 2, 2016

In the latest edition of PS On
Air
, Jim O’Neill discusses how to beat antimicrobial resistance, which
threatens millions of lives, with Gavekal Dragonomics’ Anatole Kaletsky
and Leonardo Maisano of
Il Sole 24 Ore.

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