The ‘‘index still points to moderate growth in the fourth quarter,’’ said Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics.

Ashworth forecasts growth in the October-December quarter at an annual rate of 2 to 2.5 percent. That would be slightly better than the 1.5 to 2 percent rate economists predict for the July-September quarter.

Ashworth said the fourth-quarter growth rate assumes the US government shutdown lasts no more than two weeks.

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