The State Of The Roster: Basketball

With the news that Aubrey Dawkins will transfer to UCF, Michigan suddenly has an open scholarship spot and a few different options for what to do with it. Before I get into the different scenarios, here's my attempt at a depth chart for next season if the roster remains unchanged:

PG

SG

SF

PF

C

Derrick Walton

M-A Abdur-Rahkman

Duncan Robinson

Zak Irvin

Moe Wagner

Xavier Simpson

(Walton)

(Chatman)

Kam Chatman

Mark Donnal

(MAAR)

Ibi Watson

(Wilson)

DJ Wilson

Austin Davis

Jon Teske

There's not much depth on the wings at the moment, especially if three-star SG Ibi Watson isn't ready to jump into the rotation right away. While much of the offseason consternation has focused on point guard and center, Michigan's most pressing need is another contributor at SG/SF, and there are a few ways they can make that happen.

John Beilein mentioned in his press availability today that the team will look to use DJ Wilson more on the wing—for Wilson, that would mean backing up Zak Irvin at the four—which would allow Kam Chatman to be Duncan Robinson's primary backup at the three. While that would go a long way towards alleviating M's depth concerns, both Wilson and Chatman would have to show considerable improvement for that to be an ideal solution. Unless one of Austin Davis or Jon Teske is ready to play spot minutes at center, which seems unlikely, Wilson will be needed at the five, too.

Of course, Michigan has that open scholarship, and it'd be a huge surprise (and failure) if they don't use it. I see four scenarios potentially playing out for Michigan, which I'll list in order of likelihood as I see it.

1. Add A Grad Transfer Swingman

PG

SG

SF

PF

C

Derrick Walton

M-A Abdur-Rahkman

Duncan Robinson

Zak Irvin

Moe Wagner

Xavier Simpson

(Transfer Swingman)

(Chatman)

Kam Chatman

Mark Donnal

(MAAR)

(Walton)

(Transfer Swingman)

(Wilson)

DJ Wilson

Ibi Watson

Austin Davis

Jon Teske

This seems to be John Beilein's first choice. Michigan has already reached out to Columbia grad transfer Grant Mullins, a 6'3" combo guard who functioned as a point guard this season but would likely be an off-the-bench shooter; he took just over half his shots from beyond the arc and made them at a 44% clip. Mullins would bolster Michigan's depth at three spots: he'd primarily play shooting guard, alleviate the need for Derrick Walton to slide over when MAAR needs a break—and he could play the point himself if something happens with Walton/Simpson—and give Beilein the flexibility to play some smaller lineups featuring MAAR at the three.

If Mullins doesn't end up here, Michigan would still benefit from going after a guy who could play the two and the three; I'd love to see Beilein go after a strong defender to fill that role.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the scenarios.]

2. Add A Grad Transfer Stretch Four

PG

SG

SF

PF

C

Derrick Walton

M-A Abdur-Rahkman

Zak Irvin

(Transfer Stretch Four)

Moe Wagner

Xavier Simpson

(Walton)

Duncan Robinson

Kam Chatman

Mark Donnal

(MAAR)

(Irvin)

(Chatman)

(Wilson)

DJ Wilson

Ibi Watson

(Irvin)

Austin Davis

Jon Teske

I brought up Valparaiso's Alec Peters on Twitter when his name emerged—without any specific schools attached—as a potential grad transfer. Of all the players who've been mentioned so far this offseason, Peters is the best fit for this team. At 6'9", 230, he's a natural four, and he has the ability to play center as well. His rebounding numbers were quite good last year. He'd likely be an upgrade on defense—Valpo finished ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency. Most intriguingly, he's a high-usage, efficient, inside-outside scorer; Peters made 55% of his twos, 44% of his threes, and 85% of his free throws with no shortage of volume in any of those categories.

Unfortunately, there are a couple significant barriers to Peters ending up in Ann Arbor. Valpo coach Bryce Drew just took the open job at Vanderbilt, giving Peters an obvious landing spot with a coach he knows well. The other is that Peters' primary focus at the moment is on jumping to the NBA:

Junior star Alec Peters is set to graduate this summer and his name has been tossed around as a graduate transfer who could move to another program and have immediate eligibility next season. Vanderbilt was certainly be a possibility for Peters.

When reached late Monday night, Peters reiterated that he intended to enter the NBA Draft. Peters first spoke of declaring for the draft prior to the National Invitation Tournament semifinals in New York.

“All I’m working on right now is finalizing the paperwork to get my name in the draft,” Peters said Monday night. “I’m trying to get a few workouts and maybe get invited to the combine.”

Even if Peters tries to go the NBA route, however, there's a good chance he ends up back in college for his senior year because of the new rule allowing college players to declare for the draft, get the NBA's feedback, and return to school if they don't hire an agent. Peters isn't listed on Chad Ford's top 100 for 2016, which includes several players who haven't declared, and DraftExpress doesn't include him in mock drafts for either 2016 or 2017. Peters doesn't fit the profile of an early entry.

Whether or not Peters is an option, Michigan would do quite well if they can add a starter-quality stretch four, which would allow Zak Irvin to slide down to his natural spot at the three and provide a ton of lineup flexibility with Duncan Robinson coming off the bench. This is my ideal scenario, but it's harder to find a stretch four who fits the profile on the grad transfer market than a bench wing.

3. Bring Back Spike

PG

SG

SF

PF

C

Derrick Walton

M-A Abdur-Rahkman

Duncan Robinson

Zak Irvin

Moe Wagner

Spike Albrecht

(Walton)

(Chatman)

Kam Chatman

Mark Donnal

Xavier Simpson

Ibi Watson

(Wilson)

DJ Wilson

Austin Davis

Jon Teske

While this option is still on the table, it's not hard to read between the lines here:

Beilein doesn't rule out bringing Spike Albrecht back for next year, but says filling Dawkins' position/role also an important consideration

As I've written before, Spike moving on is probably best for both parties. Xavier Simpson could be every bit as good as Spike from the get-go and Beilein won't want to stunt his development by giving him only a minor role as a freshman. Spike, meanwhile, isn't coming back from dual hip surgeries to ride the bench, and he should have plenty of options where a bigger role and a shot at the starting job are available.

If Michigan isn't able to land a grad transfer, however, it'd be better to bring Spike back than leave that scholarship open. At the very least, that would allow Derrick Walton to play a lot off the ball, a role he's done well with in the past; while Michigan would have little choice but to field small lineups quite often, Spike's return would do a nice job of shoring up depth in the backcourt.

4. Add A Late-Rising Recruit

While Beilein has well-documented success with late recruiting fliers, this is the least desirable option. Michigan needs to add a player who could contribute right away, and before you ask, no, Josh Jackson isn't happening.* Beilein's late additions, from Spike and Caris LeVert to MAAR, took a little while to adjust before finding their roles. That would put a ton of pressure on Chatman, Wilson, and Simpson to be significant contributors when the season opens; there wouldn't be much margin for error.

*I will so, so happily eat my words if it does, but it'd be one of the most shocking recruiting coups in a long time.

Evan Smotrycz played quite a bit as a 6'8" stretch four before he transferred; he also played the five but he would've been a four long-term had he stuck around.

At West Virginia, Beilein played 6'8" Joe Alexander at the four, and I believe he had taller fours in general at WVU, but KenPom doesn't list heights/weights for his pre-2007 teams.

Just because Beilein has played shorter players at the four here doesn't mean he doesn't want bigger guys there. Note that, as mentioned in this post, he wants to play DJ Wilson on the wing. There are good reasons to believe Peters won't end up here, but it won't be because he isn't a fit.

I'm sure he wants a taller four like we all would want a Steph curry for pg but taller, faster, stronger and better shooter. He just hasn't landed any since rich rod was the football coach. His trend has been to sacrifice height, bulk, and defensive ability for a slightly better 3-point percentage at every position. I'll take a 6' 11" rebounding / shot blocking monster over a guy like donnal who can hit a three pointer every other game but is allergic to playing above the rim.

With this week’s news of the transfer of former starting point guard Kaleb Joseph and the graduation of starters Michael Gbinije and Trevor Cooney, Syracuse (a school that has had some Candians play for them in previous seasons) now could become a good landing spot for Columbia’s Grant Mullins. LINK

Your position breakdown is reasonable, but I don't think it's so important in figuring out who we need to add.

Here is who can actually play each position if need be, players ordered in terms of small to big. The thinnest group is the 1. Even the third string guy there, MAAR, is not very good, as evidenced by the fact that Beilein chose to play dakich there for big stretches.

1 Walton Simpson MAAR

2 Walton Simpson MAAR Watson Irvin

3 MAAR Watson Irvin Robinson Chatman

4 Irvin Robinson Chatman Wilson

5 Wilson Wagner Donnal Davis Teske

If you look at our biggest need if you cross the starter off the depth chart at each spot, it's the 1:

1 Simpson MAAR

2 Walton SimpsonWatson Irvin

3 MAAR Watson Irvin Chatman

4 Robinson Chatman Wilson

5 Wilson Donnal Davis Teske

So, bringing back spike makes a lot of sense from a position-coverage standpoint, not to mention everything else he brings to the table.

Spike woudl play at the 1 and the 2. If you add a "stretch 4" Irvin is still going to play the 4 at times. My point is you have lots of bodies you can throw in at the 2-5 positions. You only have 3 guys you can use at the 1, and one of them has not worked out well at all there (MAAR). So, to protect against injury, the 1 is what you need to shore up the most.

Can't look at this on a positional basis without considering what you're taking from the other spots. The 2 line without starter is more scary than the 1 line, because there isn't a single guy that can replace MAAR that wouldn't be out of position, AND create a big problem at another postion, assuming Watson isn't going to be ready for big minutes which is all but certain.

If you have to take one of the PGs for the 2 spot, you're playing a super short, defensively challened guard lineup and neither guard spot would have a capable backup. It'd be a situation where you're losing the one natural 2 on the team AND losing one of your two PGs. Irvin doesn't belong on that 2 line. He's never played the 2, isn't a great ball handler for that position, and would have trouble guarding quick guards. But yes, he'd probaby have to play spot minutes at the 2 which is worse than MAAR needing to play spot minutes at PG.

Dakich did not play PG for big stretches. The main reason he had to play there for spot minutes at all, is that there was no one to play the 2 if MAAR moved over. And we're back to the 2 spot being the thinnest.

So the recruitment of Mullins makes sense. Spike would be viable but not ideal because he's more of a pure PG that makes for a short and defensively challenged guard duo if 2 of the PGs are playing at the same time. I'm not sure Mullins is much better at defense. I suspect not, but that's exactly why Ace is saying that a better defense option would be preferred if they go with a 2 transfer.

certain types of position types, is mental toughness. Spike is a leader who plays the game with control, inspiration and mental grit. Michigan sorely lacks this across the board more than anything else, especially in the post. They have'nt had it outside of Wagner who I like because of this alone, regardless of his skillset and foul-proneess, since Morgan graduated and Mitch departed.

In the backcourt, MAAR is the grittiest guy and most willing to take on any challenge going to the rim. Add more of that, and this team will be immensely improved.

A stretch 4 is ideal, but if that's not on the table, a wing who can defend on the ball is my next choice. It was frustrating at times last year watching Robinson or Dawkins get blown by on the dribble. We've seen how far this team can go with a serviceable defense. The UD coaching search also looms large if Beilein is choosing a (hopefully defensive-minded) replacement for BA.

You're exactly right. It does still leaves the 2 spot a little thin. Robinson there is a tough proposition defensively. It was painful to watch any and all 3s blow by him this year; I shudder to think about 2s being at the rim before he even turns around. But yes, in a backup role, he could play spot minutes there.

I suspect the targeting of a 2 guard by the coaching staff indicates that they're confident Chatman or Wilson will be the solution at 4. That would be ideal to use the extra spot on a capable 2 and have a guy on the existing roster not named Irvin be a valuable 4.

If you honestly think MAAR is our best player, get ready for the NIT next year.

I said it 2 years ago, I said it before last year...it's not rocket science in basketball you need talent. For two years we've had teams that can beat anyone, no question, but they weren't good enough to consistently win at a high level.

If this is your team next year, then you're looking at more of the same.

I'll repeat. Wagner and MAAR should be coming off the bench. If you REALLY want an elite team, then Robinson should be coming off the bench. Those would be your 3 primary bench players with guys like Simpson, Chatman and Donnal rounding out your rotation.

Rahk was consistently our best option to drive to the hoop and score last season. It's not too hard to make a case that he was our most valuable player at time last year. If one of Chatman/Wilson can make the leap next year, then it would improve the 2 and 3, like you mentioned in your other post.

Which is why I said Jamal Crawford...yet JJ Reddick still starts over him, right?

Having a versatile combo guard coming off the bench can be lethal. He's much better suited for that role, IMO.

And just the fact that I don't think he's good enough to be a starter on an elite team. I'd much rather see a Stauskas/THJ starting over him.

You all who are fighting me on this realize that it's a GOOD thing to have good players coming off the bench right?

Again, I'm not saying MAAR isn't good...I'm saying if we want to be the team we were, we're going to need a better basketball player. However, if you move him to a backup combo guard position, he'll stack up very nicely against others in that same role around the country.

because Rahk is arguably more valuable (better all around player at his position) than Walton and Robinson (and certainly Donnal but you acknowledged the center needs an upgrade). So yes, having better players is better, but a Stauskas/THJ starting over Robinson would arguably make the team better than one of them starting over Rahk. Or a Trey Burke starting over Walton would arguably be a bigger upgrade than an equivalent all-american starting over Rahk.

That's the point. He's not one of the two weakest projected starters next year.

...but I would consider him a legit, B1G starter next year. I assume he'll improve at least a little on defense, and at least a little on offense (e.g., passing) and combine that with him already being 47% FG, 37% from 3PT and demonstrated ability to get to the hoop? That's a starter I'm glad to have on the team.

Wagner -- I agree, it would be better from him to be super sub next year. However, I'm excited to see what he can bring.

I don't agree with your comparison. JC is an old guy who comes in to score, a high-volume, low percentage guy. Doesn't play much D or do anything else. His value is as a super high-character guy who provides instant offense.

MAAR is a Swiss army knife. He was possibly our best defender after Caris went down (low bar), and he contributed in different ways depending on the game - sometimes shooting, sometimes playmaking, taking it to the hole, defense, boards.

I like thinking about what should have been if Nik and GRIII hadn't of left early. Beileins history of playing development is such that he prefers to have guys play all four years, their last two being where they really thrive. He hasn't gotten that chance because of early entries and injuries.

but to say we SHOULD have an NBA player at the 2 isn't even relevant right now. Yes, it would have been nice to recruit that initially, but there is 0 chance we get an NBA player to fill that spot for 16-17 season. By definition a grad transfer is not good enough for the NBA so he's looking for a spot to land. Best you can do is get a solid contributor so that's what the debate is about. Do we want a solid contributor at the 2/3 or the 4 as a best case scenario?

I don't think #4 should even be considered. Beilein is not going to find someone at this point in the recruiting cycle that is capable of making an impact next year. Save the scholarship and get to work on the class of 2017.

This team needs an infusion of talent that is ready to play on day 1. It doesn't need more projects that are going to take 2-3 years to develop.

Why? Caris was found at his point in the process, as was MAAR. And Duncan Robinson, too. Either get a grad transfer SG/SF or find a Mid-major offered kid who is being overlooked. I would prefer a grad transfer simply because they'd open up a spot for 2017 and give next year's youth a chance to develop. In essence, I'd rather get a stop gap and let this team go as structures. JB doesn't play more than 9, typically 8 guys. Those guys are on the team or are signed.

I can see all four freshman playing, so why add a fifth? Walton, MAAR, Irvin, Wagner, Donnal, Robinson leaves only 3 possible players having any significant time on the court. I imagine Simpson plays a lot because of his skill, and that we play a lot of small ball with Simpson, Walton, MAAR, Irvin at the 4 (like GR3) and a Wagner/Donnal rotation. Wilson and Chatman will either transfer or warm the bench. Davis and Teske will get a short leashes, unless we get a new vocal big man coach who convinces JB to let them play through mistakes.

Not trying to sound cynical, but that's been the m.o. for rotations since JB is here. It works for us to a point. Wagner has the skills, just needs weight and more PT. He was becoming a McGary like jewel at end of year. Donnal has soft hands, hence turnovers and poor rebounding. Davis seems to want to rebound--we will see. These are things most of us already see.