Survey: Housing market stuck in trough

Carolyn Cummins
April 17, 2012

Sydney and Melbourne’s housing markets are at least two years away from shifting out of the current trough, but once the momentum starts, the rise will be strong, according to the 28th annual Australian Property Directions Survey.

Using the property clock system, whereby 12 noon to 6pm is a downswing, the data shows that the Sydney residential property market has shown little movement over the seven years that this data has been collected and is not seen as making significant progress over the next two years.

Respondents to the API Property Directions survey are property experts - valuers, funds managers, property analysts and property financiers - and are drawn from a range of about 30 organisations with national representation.

The survey, which was released today, covers residential, commercial, retail and industrial property in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.

According to the data, commercial property is still sought-after, while industrial property is sitting at about 7 o’clock or in the first stages of an upswing, thanks to the demand for warehouses from the e-commerce sector.

The API's NSW vice-president, Tyrone Hodge, said the survey showed that the housing markets in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne were seen as being stuck at or near the bottom of the property cycle with only small advances along the cycle predicted over the next two years.

‘‘In 2013, residential property is seen as having commenced the upswing in Sydney and Brisbane, but Melbourne is seen as remaining at the bottom of the cycle,’’ Mr Hodge said.

‘‘Affordibility remains the key issue in Sydney and until that improves, the sector is forecast to bump along the bottom.’'