I’m not shocked. The $57K version of the S remains “vaporware” at this time as only Signature S models and above are shipping.

The big red glaring flag should have been when they started dipping into deposits on future vehicles to build current orders. In other words I’ll spend customer C, D and E’s money building customer’s A car and the profit I make will let me build B. But I’ll have to pull from customer F, G, H to do it. Which then lets me build C, but now I have to make up the deposit I already spent, so now I have to pull from customer I, J, K, and L, to build C.

I’m sure in a couple of years Toyota will happily buy up the patent portfolio for pennies on the dollar.

Elon has the right idea – electric cars are a good idea. He’s about 5 to 10 years too far ahead to market.

And, “oh they’ll drop the price point and the problem is solved,” isn’t going to answer the question. Lower priced point EVs aren’t selling either.

(*If* APaGttH is correct and they’re using deposits to make current cars, they’re deeply screwed, no?

[I say if because I haven’t checked and wouldn’t know.]

I wouldn’t hold my breath on a less-profitable base model appearing *if* they’re having to cannibalize future-car deposits to make what’s shipping NOW.

Contra Darkhorse, it’s only a pyramid scheme if that was the original intent and business plan, which clearly was not the case; if they’re just failing and desperately using all the cash on hand to fill orders, despite intent to make a profit, that’s another matter.

@APaGttH: The deposit is fully refundable, and the vast majority of us that have put down reservation money know the score. If Tesla goes bust, we lose our money. However, we are in a real sense helping create the future of vehicles by supporting this project. $5000 is a small price to pay for that, and in exchange, we’ll be the first to get the car. I’ve driven it, and it is a dream car. It won’t be for everyone, but I can’t wait to get mine in October.

“Lower priced point EVs aren’t selling either.” Because they are mostly terrible. 2015 Tesla Gen III @ base $30k will sell plenty. And in the meantime, Tesla has more orders than they can fill for Model S, even at the higher price point. You’re making the mistake of comparing this car against a Volt or a Leaf, when you should be comparing it against a BMW or Mercedes. Tesla needs to sell around 20k vehicles into that performance luxury segment, and that a fairly small number, especially when you look at the global market. After driving the car, I have no doubt that they’ll hit it. None.

A sell rating means the stock is overpriced and will fall in value. In the case of Tesla, BWS values it at $28 and the market price is currently close to $33. When the price has fallen to $28, the stock will be rated as a hold unless additional financial or market information changes its valuation.

I haven’t seen the analyst report, but it’s interesting that I thought when reading the above article that Tesla would be attractive in the mid-20s, and then I saw it was still pretty high at 32. So the analyst is pretty close to my own feelings about the company, and as you can tell from my posting history, I’m a major defender of it overall.

I think it’s reasonable to say that if you have a company with pre-orders of 10,000 units, with $5,000 deposits, the company is likely to continue in business for some time unless it’s very poorly managed.

It might be noted that it’s very sensible for Tesla to use those deposits to start building cars, because revenue is immediate after the car is assembled. So if we have 10,000 deposits of $5,000 each, that’s $50 million. Let’s say we can build a Tesla Model S for about $50k and the rest of the price is profit. For $50m you can build 1000 units, which are worth $80m at retail. You take the 80m, build the next 1000 units and pocket the remaining $30m as profit, and then the company will keep on cycling through that money to build the rest of the cars. That sounds like a perfectly feasible plan.

Tesla stated upon delivery of the first 10 vehicles that they were going to be making a single car a day for a while. This was well known and heavily reported in the media. The current announcement is only a delay. Considering Tesla’s track record with the Roadster, no reasonably intelligent person is going to order a Tesla and expect it delivered within any kind of precise time frame. If I had $80,000 and ordered one today, I would expect it in a year. Or a year and a half. Or two years. I would certainly not get rid of my present car until I took physical delivery of the new one!

I think it’s fair to repeat the fundamentals of the company, none of which have changed:

* Tesla owners, by all reports, love their cars.
* The company has over 10,000 preorders, which is highly unusual for any automaker.
* The car has a highly unique value proposition – running costs are far lower than any other luxury car and significantly lower even than the typical gas-powered econobox.
* The car is expensive but comparable in price to the competition with similar performance.
* I think there is a significant number of people, many of who have real money to plunk down, who really want this company and car line to succeed. Like Apple, people have an emotional stake in Tesla.

So if the stock does drop to the mid 20s or so I think it would be a buy. Right now, though, I’m staying away since I think investor cynicism is going to build before better news comes from the company.

The to … from … thing is the new and completely unintuitive thing they’re doing on the east coast. Normal people go from something to something. But they’ve decided to reverse it for no reason at all. My newest pet peeve.

The New York Times Manual of Style and Usage prescribes the odd-sounding “to… from” construction in some circumstances to avoid confusion when discussing numerical quantities. At a glance, “from… to” suggests a range of values rather than a change from one discrete value to another.

I do. Given the incredibly high hurdles to start and successfully run a car company, Tesla is a glimpse of the American dream.

If Elon Musk – who has put SpaceX spacecraft into orbit, docking with the International Space Station – can’t succeed with Tesla, then we are doomed to be stuck with the Big 3 forever. And an individual’s hopes of starting a small business become that much more remote.

We don’t need a flood of wannabe carmakers as in the 1920s, but to see a new one succeed would be nice, even if you hate EVs.

This still remains to be the only electric car I would consider purchasing. It’s not perfect in many ways however it looks good, has good performance and has decent range. I wish I had the 60k to give one a try.

all wheel disc brakes, pop out windshield, and a steel safety bulkhead that surrounded the luggage compartment located under the hood, thus shielding the passenger compartment from head-on collisions. in addition to regular headlights, the Tucker had a center Cyclops eye, which turned with the front wheels. the Cyclops beam was around the corner before the driver’s vision, lighting the way ahead.

Billy had an idea for a machine into which you put a coin and pulled a knob releasing the product. couldn’t get funding during the Depression. similar to how he saw the self selling elliptical road cart, valve in head and electric icebox. some ideas made it into production, some didn’t. remember Ford only took cash, Billy took payments…

But where did you get that fact? All you have is the speculation of an analyst: “While the company is sticking to its 5,000 unit forecast for 2012, how it gets there becomes a second issue for it to resolve,”

They’re sticking to their forecast; this particular analyst just doesn’t BELIEVE them. Not the same as the company reporting a drop in future production.

From the article: “While initially saying that it would produce and sell 1,000 cars in the third quarter, Tesla now says it will certainly be 500 cars”. That would seem to indicate that Tesla was source of the information. That’s slashing their production in half for the entire 3rd quarter.

@acarr260: Actually, I don’t believe Tesla ever said they would produce 1000 cars in Q3 (if you can find a quote, I’d like to see it). In fact, trying to retrofit a ramp-up production curve to 5k vehicles in 2012 has been a bit of a game for enthusiasts and analysts alike. The reality is, if Tesla hits 5k vehicles by the end of the year, they will meet their public commitment (and prove a whole lot of doubters wrong). Given the current ramp, it looks like it will be a very busy Thanksgiving and Christmas in Fremont this year. But it won’t be for naught: 5000 vehicles x ASP $75000 = $375 million in revenue. I for one believe Santa Elon and his Tesla elves will deliver.

Since when is it bad for demand to outpace supply? Tesla overestimated their ability to ramp up production, but the product itself seems to be rather good. I think Elon Musk knows a thing or two about business. He’s not a shyster.

Sorry to break it to ya TTACs “best and brightest” but Tesla is here to stay. Their Toyota technology sharing contract keeps them in the drivers seat for years to come. I wonder if Musk is intentionally limiting the supply in order to keep demand high and thus his price premium (think Harley Davidson.) He’s a bright guy this Elon ;-}