Biting the hand of Project Fear

In a galaxy far, far, away

In a galaxy far far away, May the farce is trying to negotiate with people on planet Earth. Well, I say negotiate, but negotiation implies some sort of meeting of minds, or at least that the parties concerned have a basic understanding of the parameters of the subject at hand. Over the weekend the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung carried a report on the disastrous meeting last week between Theresa May and the Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission. It’s safe to say that Jean-Claude was distinctly unimpressed with Theresa’s grasp of the complexities of the Brexit talks ahead. Funnily enough, the president of the European Commission wasn’t swayed by Theresa’s repeated soundbites. Who saw that coming eh? Well OK, just about everyone.

The Brexit negotiations are going to be extremely complicated. Untangling the UK from the web of EU legislation is a bit like trying to get a fresh egg out of a scrambled egg. The report in the German press over the weekend made it clear that the British government doesn’t even begin to grasp the scale of the task ahead of it. Theresa May still fondly believes that Britain and the EU can “make a success” of Brexit, when from the perspective of the EU Brexit is by definition a failure, and the UK must come out of the other end of the negotiations as a third state which is worse off outside the EU. The British government sees Brexit as cosmetic surgery that will enhance the appearance of Britain, while the EU sees it as an amputation.

It’s a very simple logic which the British PM either refuses or is politically incapable of grasping. If the UK makes a success of Brexit, then there is no point to any country being a member of the EU. Therefore the EU has an existential interest in ensuring that whatever happens to the UK after Brexit, it’s left worse off than whatever the UK has enjoyed as a member. A successful Brexit on Theresa’s terms means an acknowledgement from the EU that there is no point to the EU. That’s why it’s not going to happen. In the negotiations to come, the EU will press its advantages, and the UK will come off badly bruised.

What we’ve got with the UK’s approach to Brexit is rather as though the EU is trying to solve the problem of String Theory, a theory in physics that when you get down to its fundamental level, reality consists of the interactions of one dimensional extended sub-atomic objects, a theory whose merits and demerits are debated and discussed with eye wateringly complex mathematics. And then the UK’s contribution to the debate is a ball of yarn from the wool shop and a knitting pattern for a tank top.

The UK for its part denies the reports in the German media and claims that the talks were friendly and constructive. Which is true. A pet cat playing with the UK’s ball of wool in a meeting of quantum physicists discussing String theory is having a wonderfully friendly and constructive time of it, but that doesn’t mean that it’s got the foggiest idea of what’s really going on or what’s at stake. The difference of course is that the pet cat is cute, whereas no one is going to tickle Boris Johnson behind the ear and let him sit on their lap. Although like the cat he does provoke an allergic reaction.

Theresa May told Juncker during the meeting that the UK has no legal obligation to settle its debts with the EU in order to leave the Union. Juncker replied that if that’s the case, then the EU has no incentive to agree a trade deal. Brexit isn’t like leaving a golf club, it’s like a divorce, and the UK needs to meet the financial commitments it signed up to while a member. It was an illustration of the political reality that if there is to be a meeting of minds, there needs to be a mind to meet. The UK doesn’t seem to have one, just an arrogant entitlement and a fistful of soundbites.

According to Juncker, it’s now more likely than not that Britain will crash out of the EU without any deal at all. He’s very pessimistic about the chances of reaching a deal with a British government which appears not to understand what’s going on and having to negotiate with a British Prime Minister who didn’t seem to be properly briefed on what is at stake and who has unrealistic expectations of what she can achieve. There’s zero chance that Theresa May is going to come out of the other end of this with a Brexit that’s good for Britain, although to be fair zero chance is pretty strong and stable. What was once unthinkable has now become the most likely outcome, a UK that leave the EU with no deal, and having to rely on World Trade Organisation rules while its economy is hampered by tariffs and queues build up at ports.

What is not at all surprising is that Theresa May reportedly told Juncker that she wanted the discussions between the EU and the UK to be kept secret, despite the fact that the EU needs to keep the European Parliament fully informed of the progress of the negotiations. An obsession with control and secrecy is typical of our authoritarian Prime Minister, an obsession which will only get worse if she is returned to power with a hugely increased majority. Theresa doesn’t do accountability. She wants to keep the talks secret so she can control their presentation of selected pieces of information to the public and tell us only the things she wants us to hear. You can make any disaster seem like a success if you don’t tell people the bad news.

A prime minister with an obsession with secrecy is a prime minister who doesn’t trust the people whom she’s asking to trust her. That’s a woman who doesn’t deserve to be elected. The future for the UK under Theresa May is frightening place. It just reinforces the message that Scotland needs to escape this nightmare as soon as we possibly can. The only way for Scotland to return to planet Earth is with independence.

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55 comments on “In a galaxy far, far, away”

She’s not very good at keeping her cards close to her chest, is she?
Was it Peugot who bought GM’s English Vauxhaul and Opel Plant recently?
The Yanks were quick off the mark to get out of EngWaland pronto.
The Pesky Frogs will not do Les Boeufsteaks any favours when the Brexit hits the fan. Dark days ahead for England’s Car Industry..

Now we know how Nicola felt after her meetings with Mayhem in downing st , when she was asked how the meeting went, I think she shrugged her shoulders and laughed, then said to the assembled press, How did it go ha ha , well you are probably as wise a me , I am no further forward than I was before I walked in , all I got was Brexit means Brexit . After seeing clips of her visit to the north, a shambles even the Marx Brothers would have denied having anything to do with, this PM rather than look strong, she looked like this wasn’t her thing, as if she had been bounced into a job by accident and it was gradually becoming clear to her she is well out of her comfort zone and really out of her depth. I doubt if she will see the year out . Let’s hope the English voters waken up before it’s too late .

Seems about right. When I clocked the piece an almost crushing sense of inevitability came to mind.

‘Who knew’ doesn’t seem adequate somehow. Five minutes after the Brexit result was known, anyone with even the remotest grasp of the political landscape had surmised this was the most likely attitude and stance the EU would assume.

Still, on the bright side for both your hardline unionist and UKIP minded Empire 2.0 believer. You’re going to get everything you voted for (for a short time).

You’re going to see a dominant Conservative government in control of the United Kingdom and you’re going to experience a Brexit and the launch of empire 2.0 in the next couple of years. Everything you ever wanted on a plate, no question. Rejoice! Huzzah!

Couple of things though.

When, not IF, but when it doesn’t quite work out as billed (pretty much the same way your pledges on Better Thegitherness haven’t worked out as billed). When workers rights are rewritten to suit the corporate world’s needs. When your democratic and human rights are abused. When your weekly living costs suddenly become unbearable. When their legislation comes for you and it will.

You don’t get to complain, not once. NOT EVER. You suck it up and think proud thoughts of the government you voted for, you enabled and YOU mandated, mkay?

I want a table in the same restaurant where Neil Findlay is made to eat his Union Flag,
It’ll be the same chef who prepared Paddy Ashdown’s hat when the chickens came home to roost and the electoratethrew out the Lib Dems following Cleggs betrayal by going into bed with the Blue Tories.
Remember the Coalition Lib Demmers? Cable sold off the Post Office to his pals in the City at a billion pound loss: Danny Alexander sacked 500,000 public servants: who could forget Liar Carmichael? and the Tribe That Lost Its Head came over all Blue Tory for five years and backed a cut of £29 billion in benefit and pensions payments to our most vulnerable citizens, while performing a handbrake U turn on Tuition Fees.And all for a Ministerial Car, and the promise of post political jobs for the from the Establishment.
‘You can’t eat a flag’, Neil?
If we don’t reassert our Self Determination, there won’t be much else to eat Up Here.
It’s not too late, Labour.

They tell us to be nice to yoons and hope to change their minds but i hope they suffer like our poor and disabled and young have had to endure. Wrong i know , but i have lost friends because of these policies forced on us by a govt we did not vote for . No Voters have much to answer for .

And are they going to believe the next set of promises ??? Most of them will . sadly .

We will never get 70 or 80 % ‘s here , too many haven’t the capacity to imagine success would come to indi Scotland. And if they got off their soap boxes and looked they would see Scotland’s HUGE contribution to the world in science , medicine , etc ,hell even our Nationalism is recognised world wide to be a force for good .

If we fail next referendum we will consign our children and their children to Austerity forever and no social safety net to help when we fall

Great piece, Paul. It’s less like Star Wars and more like Star Trek Voyager. Thanks to the willful idiocy of Brexit, Scotland, as part of the UK, has now found itself warped to the other side of the Milky Way and many many light years from friendly skies.

Cant be easy, going from a child’s party in an isolated, dark, forest in deepest Ruthieshire to a galaxy, far, far away. But thats her “visit” to Scotland out of the way.
But Treeza knows that in Scotland, the BBC have her back.
Both BBC Scotland and Radio Scotland are far more interested in what the SNP position on fishing will be in 4 or 5 years time, than in what the Tories will do with Scotland’s fishing stocks in just a few weeks time. Sell them out again, this time for London’s financial “passport, I would think.
Nor was there an interview with Treeza for BBC Hootsman, but they wish her all the best anyway.
Meanwhile the continental media are telling it as it is—May doesn’t have a scooby!

There was once a wicked she-wolf called Silverlocks. Silverlocks had an evil servant called Blueruthiehood who organised a children’s party in the middle of the woods. Silverlocks was very excited as she hoped to devour some poor infants in the name of the four evil Tory Gods – poverty, lies, war and greed – in front of a band of mad slavering acolytes, as was the Tory custom. However, since Blueruthiehood didn’t supply any children, Silverlocks was very hungry. So after havering some lies about strong and stable leadership to her rabble of mindless zombies, Silverlocks slunk around the cabins in the area, expecting to steal some porridge from the local bears, and hoping especially to get her claws on the baby bear’s bowl. But fortunately, the local bears sniffed Goldilock’s vile stench on the wind and kept their doors firmly shut. Disappointed, Silverlocks returned to Engerland where the bears are much more gullible.

I wonder what the rank and file tories will be saying in a year or so when Westminster cuts back on more spending to pay the £50bn to the EU. No money left to give £300m per week to the NHS. Needless to say it will be the fault of those nasty people from over there. As a pensioner I reckon I will be helping out with a pension cut. Bastards.

The consequences of that course of action would probably result in either a complete trade embargo or punitive import duties, Exports from the EU to the UK could also be subject to an export tax.

And as the UK has nothing much to sell that could not be instantly replaced with another product – I am absenting Scotland from this, ahem, analysis – then what?

She has a weak hand and is playing it weakly.

———————————

I too am retired. I expect that, as all governments do, we will gradually be reduced to penury. If they do it over a long enough period of time we will not notice that the lights are going out, the heating is off more than it is ever on and that foods we liked are beyond our means. This is the lack of respect that this UK government has for it’s citizens. We are pawns to be manipulated.

The UK when it leaves will bd treated as a third world country. You will have Na automatic rights to travel visa free in the EU. The UK will be outsider.
Also, the EU have said there will he no cherry picking, passporting rights for certain sectors etc etc.
The “best deal” the Maybot repeats is not what the UK negotiates but what the EU allows.
It is as simple as that.
As the economy is shrinking and we have not yet left, watch out for arMaygeddon when we do leave. The drop in the pound is a precursor of what is to come.
The Frankfurter Allgemeine reported in detail. As did other German newspapers.
If May cannot debate on TV with other party leaders, how is she going to manage with the EU when she cannot even think on her feet?! Grin like an eejit when cornered and repeat Brexit means Brexit!!

Ms May will not be negotiating with the EU.
Some UK representative (who?) will be negotiating with M.Barnier and his very skilled staff.
And everything will be out in the public domain.
Ms May thought she would be sitting round a table, chatting in secret with EU prime ministers and presidents.
No wonder M Junker thought she was from another planet!

I have a feeling that we are not alone in seeing through Theresa May. I expect the (UK) opinion polls to narrow pretty dramatically over the next few weeks.

So, here is a prediction. Dependent on how the local government elections go, I suppose. The SNP will lose no seats and may even win the rest of them. There already appears to be a significant shift in Scottish opinion about where this PM is trying to take us.

But more worryingly for the Tories, they are not doing as well as they hoped in England and Wales either.

I expect that the fragility of a Prime Minister who cannot cope with debate will turn many folk down South away from her.

There are several reasons for that. As her negotiations with the rest of the EU are a hostage to fortune, and to some extent the EU has an axe to grind, I’d expect leaks of a ‘too wee, too stupid and too poor’ to come out of European Capitals.

I doubt she will enjoy that. For her Empire 2.0 strategy is already crumbling.

Also, folk do not, generally, like being asked to endorse politicians at mid-term. Which is exactly what this is.
I
So, the possibility of a hung Parliament is not beyond the bounds of possibility, given the movement in opinion polls.

Do the tories really want to win the General Election? They could be having second thoughts about brexit and are looking to Labour or a coalition to cancel the withdrawl from Europe so they can save face. Labour/coalition stops the brexit process, UK stays in Europe and Brexit referendum is forgotten about because it is dropped from Tory manifesto at next election.

Going for a sudden early election was Theresa’s way of trying to outrun the EU tsunami heading our way, but she has waited too long, and now doesn’t have the legs for it.

Secrecy and control are May’s fetishes, but she will have neither, for all her Brexiteer posturing. Michel Barnier made very clear some time ago that the EU27 would be putting all details of the Brexit negotiations out in public as they happened. So no ducking or diving possible from HMG.

It looks like that transparency has started already. The EU27 are going to huff and puff more and more from now on and bring May’s house of cards crashing down. And likely before the GE vote is in as well.

Another fine and well thought out piece. And I agree with ‘The Strach’ … the UK per se is going to be away down the tubes once the “election” is over and we will then have more than enough ammunition to obtain a resounding “Yes” in IndyRef2. Haste the day!

Great words as always Paul, the fresh egg from scrambled is very apt.. although it also sent a chill -as a fresh egg yolk won’t be easily extracted from the crispy dried out fried uk egg for us one day..when we finally get the chance to..

Usual top comments too, Jack saw the Vauxhall move at the time and thought the same- first jobs the French will cut will be British ones.If they were really up and at ’em would you not have thought it a great opportunity to start up British manufacturing again? Where is all the millionaire brexiters putting their money where their mouths are then?? Sunning it up on some tottie scone somewhere nae doubt!
See also the news last week from Nestle moving jobs to Poland..

Regards your prediction Douglas, I agree the polls will narrow however I cannot see it resulting in a turn around of present predictions. If only Labour hadn’t backed the election and let her stew, they could have brought the government down most likely before June 8th.. Election expenses, brexit troubles, nasty policies introduced, all with a slim majority!! Labour missed a real big trick and I fear it may indeed be too late.

It was a total open goal for JC, if the Blairites didn’t back him he could have called them out for the Tories they are -Bastards (I do like this new trend!)

Brexiteers don’t put their money where their mouths are. My general experience with the ones I have encountered is that they have no concern for anyone else but themselves and they believe all the lying shit that the MSM put their way.

Something that’s beginning to worry me, when listening to people in the street being interviewed for the news, is the ‘strong and stable government’ and ‘better able to negotiate a great deal’ that comes out of their mouths. They’re like brainwashed zombies!

I’ll grant you that this is mainly in England, but it’s even being heard in Scotland (God help us!).

With the Tory plan to make the internet ‘safe’ they will use that to keep real info on the negotiations getting through to us. Because all the info I get is through European journals on line reports and our own blogs.

Last evening I wrote down some thoughts on the “Great British Dinner Farce” but then decided to sleep on it. I’m glad I did, because this morning I had a “light bulb moment” as something I had read, but not grasped the significance of, came front and centre into my mind. I went back and looked at the blogs and newspaper reports.

There it was: May suggested that the EU/UK expats issue could be sorted at a European Council meeting at the end of June.

Right there is the problem. The UK Tory politicians and in particular the Brexiteers do not want to deal with the commissioners and the negotiators appointed by the EU27 (European Council) and the European parliament. They are after all “the unelected bureaucrats” that the Brexiteers so despise. They only want to work with the European Council – the 27 member state Heads of State – where the UK/WM preferred techniques of divide and conquer, and bullying, blackmail and bluster work best.

That attitude is the problem because it shows that a Tory UK/WM has no understanding at all about how the EU actually works and no willingness to accept the reality of EU27 unity through the Commissioners and negotiators.

From what I have pieced together, the EU works on a combination of what I have dubbed as the five Cs:
Concept, consultation, compromise, cooperation and consensus.

The Commissioners are the people who make it happen by acting as mediators in the processes the EU uses to get to get from what comes in at the concept stage to a workable consensus and thence directives and legislation. The process is overseen by both the European Council and the European Parliament. Such a system is of course incomprehensible to politicians trained in the Great British FPTP world where the winner takes all and crushes the loser.

As far as I can see, the Commissioners are right, the negotiations are destined for disaster as long as this UK Tory Government lives in their make believe world. I do hope the EU27 and the Scottish Government have planned for the “walk out in a strop” contingency.

Oh well, if Theresa claims the UK has no legal obligation to settle its debts with the EU before leaving, that does leave the Bitter Togetherers up Ordure Creek without a paddle. Given that one of their tenets was “how we OWE MILLIONS AND SQUILLIONS to the Treasury”…to pay our share (?) of an eye watering debt that organisation had run up in our name.

Great piece Paul and the comments are as always mature and well thought out.

For me, I am a dedicated Europhile. Right from its original purpose to bring peace to a divided continent through trading and inter-dependency. this thing we call the EU is just too good to lose. I myself have had some dealings with the EU in respect of the Water Framework Directive. The commissioners devised a system for clean waters that would be Europe-wide in its scope. Imagine devising a scheme with all the vagaries of difference in inherited policies and getting everybody to sign up to it and accept it. It can only be done by a bunch of bureaucrats on the basis of accepted norms of negotiation, consultation and agreement. The fact that it took 4 minutes for the Council of Ministers to agree a Brexit strategy on Saturday is no surprise because the Commission is the servant of the democratically elected Council. It puts in place the agreed strategy for signing.

If May thinks she can tweak the way policy and agreement is done in the EU, she will have a rude awakening. I just hope that Scotland at least will be brave enough to plough our own furrow. We will be welcomed with open arms in Brussels.

Yet there is nothing in the Independent’s shock revelations which has not been forewarned by our own FM, Mike Russell, Angus Robertson, Alec Salmond, and thousands of us on blogs since last winter, but somehow suppressed by our Dead Tree Scrolls and the BBC.
What part of 80,000 job losses, 180.000 EU citizens settled and working here face dep[ortation, families being £2,500 per annum worse off, Scotland’s GDP falling by £9 billion did WM, and the MSM not understand?
They surely know now that Scotland will not meekly sleepwalk into Little England’s Empire2.
Surely?
Is it my imagination or have Dugdale Rennie and Davidson have gone awfy quiet this week?
Perhaps Dugdale can explain why Labour Candidates in Glasgow are lying about the SNP taking away bus passes for starters?
The SNP candidates are the only hopefuls who have chapped my door and were eager to discuss local issues, twice. They we wearing the broadest of smiles.
Come out, come out, wherever you are, Kezia, Wullie, and Rapefinder General Ruth.
We don’t bite, honest.
Let’s talk PFI, Arms Length contracted out loss making services like Car Parks and Building works, and how well joined up Health and Care arrangements are faring, especially in relation to elderly patients being discharged from hospital.
No?
The shredding machines in Glasgow City Chabers must be grinding 24/7 right now.
We are coming to get you, New Labour.

As for the rest? They’re perfectly aware, they simply can’t do anything about it. It will be a hard brexit regardless. Their job is to spin it in the best possible light for themselves and you know what that means?

Me and my big mouth, Sam. Davidson really is a fucking idiot. Her fellow Scots are thieves and vandals when we visit England; now a leading EU figure is an alcoholic.
Who in their right mind believes anything other than that this wee nyaff is anything other than an empty headed would be wee playground bully?
Can anyone imagine her as FM?

She is no leader, more of a mob instigator or rabble rouser. Her life is dictated by soundbite and posture, the camera op and career path. Her opinion is motivated by the closed mind and empathy free ideology of the true conservative and she has neither the guile, nor the craft to hide it as Tories of yesteryear would.

She is conservative to the bone and were there no such thing as a conservative party, Ruth Davidson would still be a self centred, thoughtless, insensitive, agressive, spoilt child. All jolly hockey sticks and cheeky chappie smiles on the surface, which is about as thick and durable as wet bog paper, but underneath? Underneath is a want and a particularly nasty want at that.

Whether it is her appalling stance on the ‘R’ clause, her support of cuts to benefits across the board, or her incredibly insensitive stance on everything from the nature of the Scot going anywhere (remember, we’re all drunken thieves apparently), to the practice of our politics. Her insistance will always be that the Scottish Government and the Scottish people could always pay twice to avoid such legislation. Mitigate, offset, beggar ourselves to stave off legislation we neither asked for, nor voted for, but have already been taxed for. Use our devolved budget and devolved parliament to right the wrongs of central government, or simply accept the will of central government over the needs of the people. The impression is we’re not held in highest regard by Ruthie and her ilk. We’re second best, second string, seconds away from disaster… ALWAYS.

THE FOLLOWING IS THE DAY JOB OF THE FIRST MINISTER OF SCOTLAND

Perform a duty of care for ALL our people’s needs without favour. Represent our people on the world stage projecting the best image possible and attracting investment by turn. Protect our people’s interests at home and overseas. Select and appoint the best team available to act as ministers responsible for all competences and briefs allowed under the devolved powers act (Scotland Bill). The list goes on a bit, but you get the drift. The top job is about care and reflecting the the will, the needs, the aspirations of your population.

IMO Ruth Davidson only cares about Ruth Davidson and as for her opinions on people, government, leadership, how she and those like her practice politics? That is for readers to decide, but no Tory talks for me and NEVER will.

Unfortunately it all ties in with the ‘no deal planned all along’ theory. She knows a decent deal is impossible while rejecting free-movement, ECHR etc. May needs a big majority to make sure she can get a walk out through parliament without being taken down by the more sensible tories.

She needs to be able to paint the EU27 as intransigent and unreasonable back home so she’ll be annoyed that negotiations will be made public. She can probably still count on the right wing press and beeb to cover her back and stoke the flames of British nationalism needed to maintain public support. I think the Gibraltar saga a few weeks ago was them just testing the water.

What’s in it for the tories though? It’s a gamble if things go totally tits up economically. Smoke and mirrors might see them through.

As always with the tories, power and party comes ahead of all else. It might present an opportunity to advance key tory ideologies that would otherwise be hugely unpopular. The financial crash was not caused by public spending or a large government deficit but the tories were quick to leap on that as an excuse for austerity, for the shrinking of the state.

A unilateral, hard Brexit will be another sleight of hand trick used to convince the punters that workers’ rights are no longer affordable, savings must be made. It could also be used as the final nail in the coffin of the NHS.

It says something when the Champagne corks will be popping in Downing St if Le Pen wins – in much the same way they popped in the Fuehrer Bunker in Berlin when the news of Roosevelt’s death arrived in the last desperate days in 1945.

Just hope our FM’s meeting with JCJ will emphasise the point that, as far as Scotland’s assets go, TM’s hands are tied as they might not be UK’s to bargain with. If JCJ sees the ramifications of this (and he will) he will insist that any Scottish assets the UK tries to bargain with must be subject to #scotref once the UK/EU trade deal is finalised (if it ever gets that far – doubtful). If Scotland votes for Indy in EU then EU deal with UK must be renegotiated or default to a secondary position.