3of22The House and the Senate will be determined in midterms on November 6, 2018.
A red or blue Congress could turn the tides on a number of national issues.Photo: Robert Alexander/Getty Images

4of22Legislative power: If Democrats win a chamber of Congress, they could obstruct Republican legislative initiatives, including repealing Obamacare, tax cuts, and cuts to programs like Medicare and Social Security. Republicans currently comprise a majority of both House and Senate. This November, 35 Senate seats and 435 House seats are up for election. Senate Republicans have the slight majority with 51 seats over Democrats’ 47 (as well as two independents). All 435 House seats are up for election this November. As it stands, Republicans have 236 and Democrats have 193 with 6 empty seats.Photo: YURI GRIPAS/AFP/Getty Images

6of22Court Nominations: The Senate has the power to veto judicial appointments. They also can block lifetime appointments to lower courts. Photo: Mark Wilson/Getty Images

7of22Investigations into Trump administration: Congress holds subpoena power. A Democratic flip of the House or Senate could bring more intensive investigations of the Trump administration like the Mueller Russia probe.Photo: The Washington Post/The Washington Post/Getty Images

8of22Impeachment: Any possibility of impeachment requires at least a blue House. It’s still pretty implausible, though: Impeachment requires a House majority but actually removing a president requires a two-thirds Senate approval.Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc.

9of22Looking ahead for Democrats: Even if they don’t get any legislation passed, a Democratic House could be key to defining party priorities for years to come, especially with a looming 2020 election. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

10of22Looking ahead for Republicans: If Republicans secure a majority in Congress, NBC foresees a more Trump-oriented Republican Party, rendering a GOP challenger to Trump in presidential primaries less likely. Photo: Mark Wilson/Getty Images

11of22Redistricting: Officials elected this year will be in office for the 2020 census and subsequent redrawing of congressional districts. These lines will determine state races in 2022. Redistricting in the aftermath of the 2010 census has favored the Republican Party in several states, helping them hold onto Congressional seats during the 2018 election season. 34 states are electing governors who will hold veto power for the next redistricting. Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc.

12of22It is possible that the House will go to the Democrats, but the Senate will be a difficult battle. Democratic incumbents must defend 25 seats to Republicans’ 8, and 10 of those seats are in states that voted Trump in 2016.
Here are the main Senate races to look out for:Photo: Chip Somodevilla

13of22Arizona: Republican Jeff Flake is retiring, leaving the doors open for likely Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema, above, to battle it out with one of three GOP possibilities, most likely Rep. Martha McSally (R), who back Trump, especially when it comes to immigration policy.Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc.

14of22Florida is promising to be a tight race between Republican Governor Rick Scott, above, and Democratic incumbent Democrat, Bill Nelson. Both candidates are attracting attention for their cash-heavy campaigns. Platform-wise, they represent polar ends of the spectrum: Nelson is focusing on reinstating Obamacare while Scott is determined to dismantle the ACA. Photo: Joe Skipper/Getty Images

15of22In Indiana, Democrat Senator Joe Donnelly, above, faces Republican nomination, Mike Braun. Braun, a businessman, is backed by Trump and shares the President’s sentiments about the border wall and Obamacare. This, according to Washington Post, is likely the toughest battle for the Democrats.Photo: Paul Morigi/Getty Images

16of22Missouri is being called one of the most “vulnerable” states for Democrats, as Republican Josh Hawley is expected to give Democrat incumbent Claire McCaskill, above, a run for her money. McCaskill, facing pressure to take a stance on President Trump's Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, has been criticized for her personal finances during the campaign. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

17of22Montana: Democratic Senator Jon Tester, above, is running for re-election against Trump favorite, Matt Rosendale. Montana is one of the confusing states that voted in a Democratic governor the same year they elected Trump by a landslide. It is generally considered a “toss-up” with a slight leaning toward Tester, despite the president’s best Twitter efforts to deter the Democratic incumbent. Photo: William Campbell/Corbis via Getty Images

19of22North Dakota: Incumbent Heidi Heitkamp is the only Democrat in office in the state of North Dakota. Up against Trump supporter Kevin Cramer, above, Heitkamp has emphasized her alignment with presidential policies in this 2018 race, while Republicans have criticized her for her left-leaning stances on abortion, tax policies, and support for Hillary Clinton in 2016.Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

20of22Tennessee historically leans Republican, but with a seat left open by Sen. Bob Corker (R), former governor Phil Bredesen is the Democrats’ best chance since the 1990s. Especially since Corker hasn’t been emphatic about his support for Republican candidate Rep. Marsha Blackburn, above, who maintains a firm stance against immigration and gun control. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

21of22West Virginia: Sen. Joe Manchin III (D, above, on May 22, 2018) defends his seat in a state that voted Trump by over 40 points. He’s barely leading polls against state attorney general Patrick Morrisey, whose platform targets Obama-era environmental regulations that Morrisey views as as hostile to coal industry.Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

22of22There are, according to the New York Times 2018 Election Calendar and Results, 25 House midterm elections that are a tossup. Democrats need to flip 24 Republican seats to gain control of the house, and hold onto the 194 they currently have.Photo: Jessica Rinaldi/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

With the midterm elections just days away, there’s little indication that California is seeing a “blue wave” of Democratic votes, at least in the early returns of vote-by-mail ballots — and in some key races that will help determine control of the House, Republican voter response has been strong.

There are still a lot more ballots to come in, cautioned Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., which supplies voter information to a variety of political campaigns. But so far, according to a mail ballot tracker he runs, Republican votes are keeping pace with the number of Democratic ballots.

“Looking at the comparable numbers, the statewide mail ballot returns at this point are running about 40 percent higher than the primary, 1.7 million to 1.2 million,” he said.

A shopper walks into a convenience store along Pacific Coast Highway in Sunset Beach (Orange County) on Oct. 20, below a billboard promoting Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher's bid for a 16th term in the 48th District.

Photo: Michael R. Blood / Associated Press

For example, in Orange County’s 45th Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Mimi Walters is running against Democrat Katie Porter, the vote-by-mail return by the weekend was almost double what it was at the same point in the June primary, Mitchell said. In the 48th district, where GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa (Orange County) is being challenged by Democrat Harley Rouda, the number of mail-in ballots was up 84 percent.

But the boost might not be helping Democrats. In the Walters vs. Porter race, for example, Democrats made up 31 percent of those who received mail ballots, while Republicans made up 37 percent. As of Monday, however, the total number of ballots coming back favored Republicans, 45 percent to 31 percent. The numbers were similarly lopsided in Rohrabacher’s district, while in the Denham vs. Harder race, Democratic and Republican returns were about even.

There is reason for Democrats to take heart as well, however: Early returns often skew Republican. To read political writer John Wildermuth’s full analysis, click here.

Deep dives and late takes

Bay Area voters looking to flip the House don’t have much to work with at home: Every congressional district is safely blue. So some are traveling into the Central Valley to try to knock off the closest Republican.

In Orange County, meanwhile, Democratic hopes of defeating Republican House candidates is running up against a bit of reality — the GOP may be weakened there, but it’s far from dead.

Sign up for Political Punch

Like what you’re reading? Sign up for the Political Punch newsletter on our sign-up page. It’s sent twice a week, on Tuesdays and Thursdays, and provides an expert political perspective with a Golden State spin.

Read More

There’s nothing hotter on the San Francisco ballot than Proposition C, which would tax large companies to raise another $300 million a year for homelessness programs. Opponents have suggested companies will flee the city if it passes. But if they do, there’s a good chance their employees won’t go with them.

‘What do you mean, he’s not here yet?’

That was the reaction of former Mayor Willie Brown at his annual political breakfast Tuesday after Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gavin Newsom won a coin toss to see whether he or Republican rival John Cox would speak first — and Newsom was nowhere to be found.

He eventually showed up — it was all a misunderstanding, Brown later said — and offered a sunny view of the current state of California to counter the glass-totally-empty version that Cox laid out for a crowd of Democratic officeholders and power brokers. The Chronicle’s Joe Garofoli was there — to read his report, click here.

Sound bite

Democrats are targeting seven GOP seats in California to reach the 23 they need to wrest control of the House. But after visiting several of those districts in the final days of the 2018 midterms, Chronicle political writers John Wildermuth and Joe Garofoli are dubious that the Democrats will win more than two of those California races. Listen to their “It’s All Political” podcast to hear why.

“Everything is on the table with the president and the party,” Ronna McDaniel replied. “He has kept the last week of the campaign clear, and he’ll be where he is needed.”

Apparently, he’s not needed in California. Trump’s schedule for the campaign’s last week includes trips to Montana (close race for a U.S. Senate seat), two trips to Missouri (ditto) and two to Florida (close races for Senate and governor).

Democrats could be forgiven for hoping their favorite foil would swing by. At least one, Andrew Janz, the Democrat who is challenging Trump favorite Rep. Devin Nunes in the San Joaquin Valley, jumped on the mere rumor to appeal for donations, asking, “Did you hear that Trump is coming to the Valley to rally the MAGA troops for Nunes?”

Neither did we.

The big event

Haven’t had your fill of politics yet? Join The Chronicle’s political experts Heather Knight, Phil Matier and Joe Garofoli, along with moderator Editor-in-Chief Audrey Cooper, at a midterms-palooza Tuesday evening at 6:30 p.m. at the Grand Theater, 2665 Mission St. in San Francisco. There are still a few tickets to be had: Click here for info.

And the election night party schedule is rolling in. There’s one for the Resistance, one for techies, one for the Tenderloin community and one hosted by a drag queen. Check it out on The Chronicle’s political events calendar.

The Political Punch newsletter publishes Tuesdays and Thursdays between noon and 3 p.m. It is produced by the staff of The San Francisco Chronicle and edited by politics editor Trapper Byrne. Email: tbyrne@sfchronicle.com

John Wildermuth is a native San Franciscan who has worked as a reporter and editor in California for more than 40 years and has been with the San Francisco Chronicle since 1986. For most of his career, he has covered government and politics. He is a former assistant city editor and Peninsula bureau chief with The Chronicle and currently covers politics and San Francisco city government.