Hey everyone, no longer live but you can still watch the playback. Myself Clark and James all joined in on this for an hour. Lots and lots of information and discussion, our next one will be Saturday. So if any of you want to join in give me your google plus handle and you can jump in saturday!

look at this guys... I think Bopha is just getting ready for something, that west- southwestward track also happened to STY mike in 1990 - when Mike returned to its WNW track, it intensified rapidly and attained its peak intensity. lets see if it will do the same thing... I hate to bench mark , but I cant help myself. hehe

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Now all of a sudden the models are in tight agreement in a track headed towards Eastern Visayas.

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wsw? then it will lose more latitude. that STR is really squeezing Bopha.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 15//RMKS//1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865 NM EAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIXHOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THATTHE SYSTEM UNDERWENT A PERIOD OF SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIXHOURS, HOWEVER CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO REBUILD OVER THE LOW LEVELCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THEMSI AND THE PGTW FIX, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 0744Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGEWHICH REVEALS A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ISASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE WEAKENING TREND, WITHDVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSISINDICATES THAT THE OVERALL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD, ALTHOUGH THEEQUATORWARD CHANNEL NOW APPEARS TO BE MORE ROBUST THAN THE POLEWARDCHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 8 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS, WITHLIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 26W HAS TRACKEDWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.3. FORECAST REASONING.A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUSPROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.B. TS 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 THEN SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STR. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE MORE POLEWARD, CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH THE LONE OUTLIER BEING WBAR, WHICH TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE OTHER AIDS.C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR. LIGHT VWS, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE SST WILL ALLOW TS 26W TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 105 KNOTS. THE DYNAMIC MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//

Last edited by supercane4867 on Thu Nov 29, 2012 9:15 am, edited 1 time in total.

WDPN31 PGTW 291500MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 16//RMKS//1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 815 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 0956Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE WITH A FAIRLY COMPACT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON EIR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON 45 KNOT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES FROM AUTOMATED TECHNIQUES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING LESS ROBUST DESPITE A POINT SOURCE OVERHEAD. THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 8 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS, WITH LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)IS A VERY FAVORABLE 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TS 26W IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS ORGANIZATION AT THIS LOW LATITUDE. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 THEN SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STR. AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO GAIN LATITUDE, CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH THE LONE OUTLIER BEING WBAR, WHICH TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE OTHER AIDS. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. LIGHT VWS, INCREASED OUTFLOW, AND A FAVORABLE SST WILL ALLOW TS 26W TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS AT TAUS 96 AND 120. UNCERTAINTY IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AT THE VERY LATE TAUS AND BEYOND DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE STR IN THE MODELS. NGPS AND GFDN ARE MAINTAINING A STRONG STR, DRIVING THE SYSTEM INTO LUZON WHILE GFS, AND ECMWF TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY DUE TO A WEAKER STR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES NOTED, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH WITH FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICAL MODEL AGREEMENT OVERALL.//NNNN

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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

AT 1000 PM CHST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.9 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK 405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP 780 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND 960 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM POSITION...3.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 147.9 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATEADVISORY AT 5 AM CHST.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS NOW MOVING WEST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES BOPHA SOUTH OF NGULU AND THROUGH THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MORE SOUTHERN TRACK HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AT FARAULEP.

...WOLEAI AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH OF WOLEAI FRIDAY NIGHT. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM THE YAP EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. PRACTICE YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN AND IDENTIFY A SHELTER WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND STRONG WINDS IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

...WIND INFORMATION...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT IF BOPHA TRACKS FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...BUT THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE STORM HAS LESSENED THE THREAT OF TYPHOON CONDITIONS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND HIGH TIDE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM THE YAP EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. PRACTICE YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN AND IDENTIFY A SHELTER WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND STRONG WINDS IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

...WIND INFORMATION...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT IF BOPHA TRACKS FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COASTAL INUNDATION OF UP TO 1 FOOT MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND HIGH TIDE.

I think an East Visayas hit is becoming more likely now, though after Visayas it is a question where this will end up. If I get this right, the GFS is kind of hinting an extratropical transition east of Luzon as the storm turns to the NE and makes a loop.

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.