Budget, Debt, and Deficits

U.S. policymakers who worry about the impact of energy developments on geopolitics typically think of high oil prices as bad news and low prices as an unalloyed good. But a sustained drop in oil prices can be dangerous as well. This paper investigates Mexican vulnerability to falling oil prices—and spillovers to the United States—to show how troublesome such a development might be.

Thanks to the spending bill that House and Senate leaders have negotiated, the federal government will avoid a shutdown. And that's great. Unfortunately, though, that’s the highest praise that can be attached to the deal.

Europe can no longer afford to put off its debt problem. Robert Kahn recommends that policymakers draw lessons from the Paris Club to provide a rules-based approach to debt relief that can get Europe back on the path to growth.

A. Michael Spence argues that the eurozone has an opportunity to jumpstart economic recovery by relaxing fiscal constraints on the condition that member states use the reprieve to initiate public sector investment and structural reforms.

he US racked up debt faster than any other G7 country during the Great Recession, so that its debt burden is now as bad as the average European country. If current projections hold, by 2040 the US will have the worst debt burden of any G7 country save for Japan, reaching levels not seen since World War II.

The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has nearly grown to the Group of 7 (G7) average, a dramatic increase from 2000 when it was lower than most other G7 countries, according to a new progress report and scorecard from the Council on Foreign Relations Renewing America initiative. At its current rate, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio will be higher than all G7 countries except Japan by 2040.

Renewing America

The U.S. government faces an unsustainable long-term debt trajectory. This Progress Report and Scorecard outlines the factors affecting federal debt and suggests options for policymakers to address the impending crisis.

What's the difference between debt and deficit? What does the "fiscal cliff," a combination of tax increases and spending cuts, mean for deficit reduction? Research Links on Debt and Deficits provides news, research, data, and proposed solutions on debt and deficit in the United States (local and federal) and international comparisons.

CFR Senior Fellow Steven A. Cook outlines the risk factors and warning signs of a solvency crisis in Egypt in this Contingency Planning Memorandum and offers policy options to prevent such a crisis or mitigate its consequences.

Renewing America

Issued by the Office of Management and Budget, the Budget of the United States Government is a collection of documents that contains the budget message of the President, information about the President's budget proposals for a given fiscal year, and other budgetary publications that have been issued throughout the fiscal year. Other related and supporting budget publications, such as the Economic Report of the President, are included, which may vary from year to year.

Peter R. Orszag argues that the United States will be unable to improve the efficiency of its health-care system unless it more aggressively pursues research into the comparative effectiveness of medical treatments.

Peter Orszag, Ezekiel Emanuel, and Sheldon Whitehouse argue that the success of the "tech surge" in improving HealthCare.gov should inspire President Barack Obama to mobilize a similar effort to reduce health-care costs.

It has been a generation since our country last had a robust conversation about combatting poverty. Now is the time to reinvigorate that conversation, not cut needed benefits, write Robert E. Rubin, Roger C. Altman, and Melissa Kearney.

CFR Experts Guide

The Council on Foreign Relations' David Rockefeller Studies Program—CFR's "think tank"—is home to more than seventy full-time, adjunct, and visiting scholars and practitioners (called "fellows"). Their expertise covers the world's major regions as well as the critical issues shaping today's global agenda. Download the printable CFR Experts Guide.

The authors argue that the United States has responded inadequately to the rise of Chinese power and recommend placing less strategic emphasis on the goal of integrating China into the international system and more on balancing China's rise.

Campbell evaluates the implications of the Boko Haram insurgency and recommends that the United States support Nigerian efforts to address the drivers of Boko Haram, such as poverty and corruption, and to foster stronger ties with Nigerian civil society.

2014 Annual Report

Learn more about CFR’s mission and its work over the past year in the 2014 Annual Report. The Annual Report spotlights new initiatives, high-profile events, and authoritative scholarship from CFR experts, and includes a message from CFR President Richard N. Haass.Read and download »