M's Farm Report: Who's the next Ichiro?

Rainiers' Jones has skills to step into leadoff role

Editor's note: Jason A. Churchill covers the Mariners and their farm system at his Web site, ProspectInsider.com. His Farm Report appears biweekly in the P-I.

Leading off. Its value is often overestimated. The skill it requires, however, is frequently overlooked.

Getting on base regularly, working the count, being an asset on the bases and setting the tone for the rest of the lineup are among the qualities of the leadoff hitter.

Ichiro Suzuki has been the leadoff man for the Mariners for most of the past six seasons, and has handled the role well enough to be considered among the best in the game.

The Japanese import, 33, has broken hits records that lasted longer than any home-run mark and is a constant threat on the bases. He posts solid on-base percentages annually, and limits his strikeouts.

But what happens if the Mariners begin the 2008 season without Ichiro, who is eligible for free agency after his seventh year with Seattle?

The answer could be down on the farm, in the form of a trio of prospects. One could also be the club's center field replacement for Ichiro next season, while the other two are just cutting their teeth.

Adam Jones, 21, is the consensus top prospect within the organization, and has been hitting leadoff since the middle of the 2006 season at Triple-A Tacoma. Jones has plus power potential and is improving his strike-zone judgment as well as his overall plate discipline, taking giant leaps the past two seasons.

But is Jones really an offensive player who fits the role of the leadoff hitter?

"I'm not saying he can't do it one day," said a former minor league manager who scouted and coached the likes of Kenny Lofton and Rickey Henderson, two of the all-time best leadoff hitters. "But he's not your prototypical make contact, take walks, run the bases type kid. He's going to be someone who they want to see drive in runs, rather than score them."

Jones has posted on-base percentages of .370 and .345 the past two years in the minors, and has taken to his spot in the batting order without an adjustment period. If he's capable of the task in the big leagues, he'd likely end up there somehow, but it also could be a waste of a power bat with run-producing ability.

"It depends on what else the Mariners are looking at," said the scout. "In one sense, he could be your best hitter and he'd get more chances that way. But if he's a bopper in that lineup he might be better used down in the order."

While Jones isn't likely to man the top spot when he reaches the majors, he's the club's only immediate candidate to one day fit the bill.

The secondary options are plentiful, but none of them are old enough to vote, and two of them have yet to play organized baseball in the United States.

Dominican Republic native Carlos Triunfel, just 17, was the Mariners' prize signing last summer, when they netted a number of quality international talents. Triunfel has all the tools to bat leadoff, though he's been hitting second for the Class A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers for the better part of the season.

"He has solid fundamentals at the plate," Mariners international scouting supervisor Bob Engle told Baseball America. "And he has an advance approach to hitting that, really, it's the first thing that attracted our attention."

The 5-foot-11, 175-pound Triunfel is hitting .255 through his first 13 games with Wisconsin, and has drawn just one walk. He does have two steals, however, but both came in the season opener. The Mariners envision more than just table-setting from Triunfel, whose natural position is shortstop.

"He has natural strength in his shoulders, hands and wrists, and he's never lifted weights," Engle said. "I think he's going to hit for power."

Two more international signings could make an impact at the top of the batting order. Infielder Anthony Phillips from South Africa and Mario Martinez, a multi-tooled outfielder from Venezuela, are ready for their U.S. debuts later this summer.

Phillips, at 5-9, has drawn comparisons to a young Chuck Knoblauch. Martinez, 17, who many clubs saw as a Carlos Beltran-type talent, may be the best candidate of the lot.

"He was even more interesting to me than (Jesus) Montero, who the Yankees signed," said the Venezuela-area scout for an NL Central club. "Martinez just oozed potential, and it always appeared as if he immediately knew what he could have done better."

As Phillips and the 6-3, 175-pound Martinez await their chance, Triunfel and Jones are on their way to big league careers.

Whether any of them can ultimately fill the larger-than-life Mizunos left by Ichiro might be the question.

It's a question that won't be answered for at least a year, and possibly several, if Ichiro decides to re-sign.