Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is increasing at a pace faster than any other country and now is reported to have more nuclear weapons than that of India.

WASHINGTON: Pakistan's fourth heavy water reactor at Khushab nuclear site which allows it to build a larger number of miniaturised plutonium-based nuclear weapons now appears to be operational, a US think-tank has said.

The reactor is part of Pakistan's programme to increase the production of weapons-grade plutonium.

"A recently purchased Digital Globe high resolution satellite image dated January 15, 2015 shows that Khushab's fourth reactor's external construction is complete and has become operational," David Albright and Serena Kelleher-Vergantini of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) said on Friday.

"This assessment is based on the presence of a very specific signature: steam is venting from the reactor's cooling system," he said.

Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is increasing at a pace faster than any other country and now is reported to have more nuclear weapons than that of India.

Albright and his co-author said Pakistan's Khushab nuclear site, located 200 kilometres south of Islamabad, is dedicated to the production of plutonium for nuclear weapons.

"Its expansion appears to be part of an effort to increase the production of weapons-grade plutonium, allowing Pakistan to build a larger number of miniaturized plutonium-based nuclear weapons that can complement its existing highly enriched uranium nuclear weapons," they wrote.

"Originally, the site consisted of a heavy water production plant and an estimated 50 megawatt-thermal (MWth) heavy water reactor, both of which became operational in the 1990s. However, Pakistan initiated the construction of a second heavy water reactor between the year 2000 and 2002, a third one in 2006, and a fourth one in 2011," they said.

Noting that Pakistan has never provided public information regarding any of the Khushab reactors, Albright and Kelleher-Vergantini said terefore, the power output can only be estimated.

ISIS estimates the power of the original heavy water reactor to be about 50 MWth while reactors 2, 3, and 4 are believed to generate double or more the power of the first one, and are thus capable of producing more than double the amount of weapon-grade plutonium per year.

A technical consultant to ISIS with years of experience in heavy water reactors assessed for ISIS that the power of these newer heavy water reactors is likely to be larger than the first one and that over time their power could be further increased.

The increase in power can be accomplished by using more advanced fuel or adding heat removal capacity, they wrote.

Pakistan has been suffering from rolling blackouts since early 2008 and yet the Pakistanis are producing plutonium for thermonuclear weapons from their fourth nuclear reactor. The Pakistanis have a very strange set of priorities.

Pakistan has been suffering from rolling blackouts since early 2008 and yet the Pakistanis are producing plutonium for thermonuclear weapons from their fourth nuclear reactor. The Pakistanis have a very strange set of priorities.

Click to expand...

It really does display a different mindset to India. Pakistan has been racked by power shortages for 7 years and they get their 4th nuclear reactor up and running not to produce electricity for the Pakistani population, but to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons. No wonder Pakistan is consigned to the list of failed states. Indian engages in constructive and galvanising national projects which are marvellous technical achievements, like the Mars Orbiter Mission and builds the Mangalyaan spacecraft or Mars-craft, and becomes not only the first Asian country to achieve Mars orbit, but the first country from anywhere to do it on its first attempt. Pakistan's scientific achievements consist of building more and more nuclear weapons to the great cost and detriment of the Pakistani people. There really is a clear difference in mentality between the two countries.

Pakistan's fissile material reserves are still not enough for both civilian and military use so
The civilian side is sacrificed to maintain a minimum credible deterrence.

Click to expand...

Credible deterrence to what? According to Asghar Khan, Pakistan doesn't need nuclear weapons. As he says, people are starving and Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is breaking the country's back. As he points out, it is Pakistan that has started all its wars with India, not the other way round.

Credible deterrence to what? According to Asghar Khan, Pakistan doesn't need nuclear weapons. As he says, people are starving and Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is breaking the country's back. As he points out, it is Pakistan that has started all its wars with India, not the other way round.

@LETHALFORCE I haven't got time to read the entire chapter but I get the drift of it. Even with nuclear weapons for the whole Islamic world, it will depend on well they can be delivered. For example, Pakistan could not retaliate against Australia if we were to launch a nuclear attack on Indonesia. This is not quite as fanciful as it reads. Australia has the capacity to build nuclear weapons, as well as having 29 per cent of the world's uranium reserves, but we refrain from doing so preferring to live under the nuclear protection of the U.S. The point is, the Islamic world does not have a truly inter-continental capability to launch nuclear weapons.

@LETHALFORCE I haven't got time to read the entire chapter but I get the drift of it. Even with nuclear weapons for the whole Islamic world, it will depend on well they can be delivered. For example, Pakistan could not retaliate against Australia if we were to launch a nuclear attack on Indonesia. This is not quite as fanciful as it reads. Australia has the capacity to build nuclear weapons, as well as having 29 per cent of the world's uranium reserves, but we refrain from doing so preferring to live under the nuclear protection of the U.S. The point is, the Islamic world does not have a truly inter-continental capability to launch nuclear weapons.

Click to expand...

Your point is very valid but technology can be shared with neighboring countries or there
Can be a threat of a dirty bomb? Any country which has a warplane arsenal has a crude
Delivery system.

Your point is very valid but technology can be shared with neighboring countries or there
Can be a threat of a dirty bomb? Any country which has a warplane arsenal has a crude
Delivery system.

Click to expand...

If the nuclear attack is to be delivered by warplane, then a great deal will depend on the skill of the pilot. Most warplanes are easily detected and susceptible to being shot out of the sky, either by another aeroplane or a surface-to-air missile. I'm not an expert but I don't believe any Islamic country has the stealth technology, let alone the industrial capacity, to produce a truly stealthy, undetectable-to-radar warplane.

If the nuclear attack is to be delivered by warplane, then a great deal will depend on the skill of the pilot. Most warplanes are easily detected and susceptible to being shot out of the sky, either by another aeroplane or a surface-to-air missile. I'm not an expert but I don't believe any Islamic country has the stealth technology, let alone the industrial capacity, to produce a truly stealthy, undetectable-to-radar warplane.

Click to expand...

You are right about the delivery system I have mentioned this point in the past. Along with the fact
That miniaturization capability by Pakistan has not been demonstrated . All reports I have read
State Pakistan has 20 kiloton capability at best this is from neutral sources. Pakistan still uses
Yellow cake centrifuge enrichment which could take 3-5 years to produce one warhead. Also any
Nuclear exchange between india and Pakistan would be detrimental to both since both depend on
Indus River water supply. But india can still retaliate without this being a factor. India's drdo chief
Has hinted at neutron bomb capability one may have been even tested in pokhran? And india is the
Largest heavy water producer in the world and all the fast breeder reactors in the future will be on the
Military side which if utilized for military use can produce 700 plus warheads annually when all up and running.

You are right about the delivery system I have mentioned this point in the past. Along with the fact
That miniaturization capability by Pakistan has not been demonstrated . All reports I have read
State Pakistan has 20 kiloton capability at best this is from neutral sources. Pakistan still uses
Yellow cake centrifuge enrichment which could take 3-5 years to produce one warhead. Also any
Nuclear exchange between india and Pakistan would be detrimental to both since both depend on
Indus River water supply. But india can still retaliate without this being a factor. India's drdo chief
Has hinted at neutron bomb capability one may have been even tested in pokhran? And india is the
Largest heavy water producer in the world and all the fast breeder reactors in the future will be on the
Military side which if utilized for military use can produce 700 plus warheads annually when all up and running.

Thank you, LF, for this most informative post. So the upshot is that India is winning the nuclear arms race with Pakistan and winning it quite comfortably. India's nuclear technology is far in advance of that of Pakistan. That's a relief. Why do I say that that is a relief? It is because I know India is a responsible country. After what I've read written by megalomaniacal Pakistanis, I have deep and disturbing doubts that the same is true of Pakistan.

I think the nuclear race with India is more like rhetoric, it can not be a reliable deterrent against a strong and determined government in India.
The Pakistani establishment is smart enough to understand that nuclear weapons are a good insurance policy in case international community threatens Pakistan's existence. But the main target here may not be India, but Israel. If they have capability for nuclear checkmate against Israel, they will be safe from western powers.

Pakistan's strategy is "a warhead for every district headquarters in India." India's strategy cannot be "a warhead for every district headquarters in Pakistan." That won't deter them. It should be something like Israel's. It should be "a warhead for key cities in every Muslim-majority country." The threat of retaliation against the entire Muslim world would be very heavy on the Pakistanis.

If you want to wield nukes for the entire Muslim world, then be ready for a retaliatory second-strike against all of it.