CBS Renew/Cancel: 'Superior Donuts' + 'Training Day'

Welcome to the second edition of the TV Ratings Guide's CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of February 3, 2016.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

Rank

Show

Season Low/ High/Average

Y2Y Change

1

The Big Bang Theory

3.1 / 3.8 / 3.38

-9.4%

2

Superior Donuts

- / 1.9 / 1.90

--

3

NCIS

1.7 / 2.2 / 1.86

-15.9%

4

Kevin Can Wait

1.3 / 2.7 / 1.81

--

5

Bull

1.3 / 2.2 / 1.59

--

6

The Great Indoors

1.1 / 1.9 / 1.57

--

7

Criminal Minds

1.3 / 1.9 / 1.47

-18.1%

8

Mom

1.2 / 1.7 / 1.45

-14.3%

9

NCIS: LA

1.0 / 1.7 / 1.43

+8.3%

10

2 Broke Girls

1.2 / 1.7 / 1.41

-12.4%

11

Man with a Plan

1.1 / 1.6 / 1.34

--

12

Life in Pieces

1.0 / 1.5 / 1.31

-34.3%

13

NCIS: New Orleans

1.1 / 1.5 / 1.25

-28.4%

14

Scorpion

1.1 / 1.5 / 1.25

-29.3%

15

Hawaii Five-0

1.1 / 1.4 / 1.21

+6.4%

16

Blue Bloods

1.1 / 1.3 / 1.21

-2.4%

17

MacGyver

0.9 / 1.7 / 1.15

--

18

The Odd Couple

0.9 / 1.1 / 1.02

-27.4%

19

Code Black

0.7 / 1.2 / 0.98

-23.2%

20

Madam Secretary

0.7 / 1.1 / 0.95

-20.5%

21

Training Day

- / 0.9 / 0.90

--

22

Pure Genius

0.7 / 1.0 / 0.86

--

23

Elementary

0.5 / 0.8 / 0.69

-28.6%

24

Ransom

0.4 / 0.8 / 0.51

--

Superior Donuts had a strong series premiere for CBS with a 1.9, retaining 61.3 percent of its Big Bang lead-in (3.1). Its A18-49 demo rating matches the series premiere of The Great Indoors, which had slightly worse retention (55.9 percent) from TBBT (3.4) in the fall. This is an encouraging result for the midseason series, making it the #2 comedy and #2 scripted series overall on the network. However, it's moving to Mondays for its subsequent episodes, which will be a better indicator of how it can perform in a line-up that isn't boosted by the Big Bang effect. Should it perform decently on Mondays, the fight for slots on the next fall schedule will be fierce. For now, it's Likely to be Renewed.

Also new last night, Training Day premiered to a weak 0.9, which is 10 percent below the series premiere of Pure Genius (1.0). With one data point of a 0.9, it's already the fourth worst performing series on the network this season, inching out only Elementary, Pure Genius, and Ransom (which airs on Saturday). It enters the table as Likely to be Canceled.