Krrish 3 HIT or Flop: Box Office Prediction

It’s Diwali and the biggest film of the year – Rakesh Roshan’s Krrish 3 – is all set to hit screens in less than a week. Expectations are sky high and rightly so, because the father-son jodi of Hrithik and Rakesh Roshan have never failed. We are not even talking about small hits here, each film of theirs has shattered every box office record in sight.

Rakesh – Hrithik Films

A quick look at some of their films together..

Kaho Na Pyaar Hai – Way back in 2000, the entire industry and national audience were looking forward to the debut of Amitabh Bachchan’s son Abhishek and Randhir Kapoor’s daughter Kareena Kapoor in a film titled Refugee. About 7 months before the much-awaited release, Rakesh Roshan’s son Hrithik made his debut in a love story with another newcomer Amisha Patel. Expectations weren’t quite as high, but Hrithik single-handedly took the world by storm. Not only did he turn into a superstar overnight, comparisons were being made between Hrithik and the reigning superstar Shahrukh Khan. KNPH went on to be the biggest grosser of the year and won Hrithik the Best debut and Best Actor trophy that year.

Koi Mil Gaya – The scenario was completely different. Expectations from KMG were high, but more importantly it was a make-or-break film for Hrithik who was written off by the media as a one-hit wonder. From comparisons with Shahrukh Khan to one-hit wonders like Kumar Gaurav, Hrithik had seen it all in the span of 3 years. Koi Mil Gaya though proved to be a turning point in Hrithik’s career as the film, once again, went on to be the biggest grosser of 2003. Hrithik won the Best Actor and Best Actor Critics Filmfare award in the same year.

Krrish – Between KMG and Krrish, Hrithik only featured in one film ‘Lakshya’ which didn’t do too well at the box office, even though it is widely believed to be Hrithik’s best film and performance. Krrish arrived in 2006 and took the box office by storm, going on to be the highest grossing film ever. It took Hrithik’s own film Dhoom 2 that very year to surpass Krrish, and Hrithik was crowned the box office king for the first time since Kaho Na Pyaar Hai.

More than 7 years later, the duo return with their most-ambitious film to date. Krrish 3 made on a budget of 90 crore, with print and marketing likely to add up to 25 crore, taking the total cost of the film to around 115 crore.

Economics: A huge chunk of their investment has already been recovered. The satellite rights were pre-sold for Rs 40 crore, music rights fetched around 10 crore and Rakesh Roshan also sold theatrical rights to individual distributors before the film went on floors. For Krrish 3 to be a decent success and ensure that the distributors don’t end up in the red, the film has to collect around 120 crore at the domestic box office.

Krrish 3 Poster – Hrithik, Priyanka and Kangana

Screens: Krrish 3 will have the widest release for an Indian film ever. The expected screen count including regional versions is around 4100. Although this could change as some screens get finalised as late as the Wednesday before release.

Runtime: The film has been passed with a ‘U’ certificate. The runtime is exactly 2 hours 33 minutes, so the turnaround time (between two shows) at multiplexes will be around 3 hours. The runtime is just about right, not as long as Agneepath (2 hours 54 minutes) and not too short as single-screens audience don’t consider films that are less than 2 hours to be ‘paisa-vasool’. Exhibitors can easily screen 5 shows a day, a few theatres that start early could squeeze in 6 shows a day per screen.

Records: For opening day and weekend records, timing of release and luck are huge factors. Unfortunately, Krrish 3 isn’t getting the best of dates. Opening day is not a national holiday and the film is releasing during the pre-Diwali period. Sunday is Diwali puja, which has a huge impact on collections. While the film has an outside chance of breaking the opening day record, 3-day weekend records (currently held by Chennai Express) are likely to be out of reach. More on the records that Krrish 3 chases in a separate article.

We are changing our format slightly for the box office predictions of Krrish 3, as a lot of people have requested day-wise predictions. Here it is then Krrish 3 box office predictions..

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

Day 1 – 28 crore

Day 2 – 25 crore

Day 3 – 20 crore (Diwali puja)

Weekend – 73 crores

Day 4 – 25 crore

First Week – 140 crores

Final – 200 crores+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

Day 1 – 26 crore

Day 2 – 22 crore

Day 3 – 17 crore (Diwali puja)

Weekend – 65 crores

Day 4 – 19 crore

First Week – 120 crores

Final – 170 crores (Super Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

Day 1 – 24 cr

Day 2 – 18 cr

Day 3 – 14 cr (Diwali puja)

Weekend – 56 cr

Day 4 – 13 cr

First Week – 88 cr

Final – 105 cr (Flop / Below Average)

Even in the worst case scenario, Krrish 3 should cross the 100 crore mark, but as we have seen with films like Besharam, box office is and always has been highly unpredictable. If the response is close to as good as any of their last 3 films, the Chennai Express record could well be in danger of being eclipsed. But since Krrish 3 is such a risky film, is could all go terribly wrong too.

The trade has its fingers crossed, as the Diwali period has always been highly lucrative for the industry. The combined business that Jab Tak Hai Jaan and Son Of Sardar generated last year was 200 cr+

It’s going to be an exciting time for the industry and for all the box office fanatics here on Indicine. In-depth reports, box office comparisons, records.. we will cover it all here.

For now, tell us what you think. Will Krrish 3 take the box office by storm? Will the film go on to be massive hit or sink without a trace? Its Hrithik’s time to shine, can he? That’s the big question.

Post your comments below.

Note: Any irrelevant or silly comments will be deleted. Don’t bother posting.

Ra.One got bad reviews but after watching Krrish 3 cartoony promo and bad acting it can be worse than Himmatwala.
Mark my words Krrish 3 will be a laughing stock when people watch it and will receive worst WOM of the year, worse than Besharam.

when Hritik’s first film released ,he was compared to SRK…..same wass told to Shaid and Vivek..same for all youngsters like Ranbir etc…they also been compaerd to SRK…but both Hritk & Ranbir proved us wrong by baaging 3&2 filmfare awards for best actor….anyway way to go……..all the best Krrish

the film has to be a blockbuster as this kind of cinema has not been created before..if it fails then no one will have the guts to make this kind of cinema in bollywood and comparisons with the west would become baseless…on the initial front, Krrish 3 should easily feature in top 3 opening days and 2nd biggest weekend ever..i expect it to break the first week record of chennai express and also the lifetime..nothing less than 200-225 crores is acceptable.
My Prediction goes as follows:-

as ageneral predection its pretty good but their is few point i want to talk about it
friday is non holiday pre diwali so how you think on friday the film will collect more than mondey official holiday no way this can happened if the wom is totally good secend point 28cr for non holiday before diwali is also high predection CE collect 29cr ETT collect 30.5cr on holiday so this is totally high number .This is not ordinary friday but before diwali so many people will prefere go to shooping and watch film on the official holiday .

if krrish collect 140cr+ on first week then for sure 200cr+ on card this is what the film is looking for first week and final result

i am confused too like indicine about boxoffice prediction of K3.. as far as 100 crores is concerned i think it will cross it.. it will not beat CE for sure.. 200 crores too looks quite improbable.. i predict it to collect 170 crores