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Exit Polls and Exit, Corzine

By Tobin Harshaw November 3, 2009 11:00 pmNovember 3, 2009 11:00 pm

The Thread is an in-depth look at how major news and controversies are being debated across the online spectrum.

America — or least a few pockets of it — went to the polls on Tuesday, yet the politician facing the greatest test wasn’t on the ballot anywhere. So, did President Obama win or lose? Neither, according to a bunch of exit polls.

“President Obama campaigned for both the Democratic gubernatorial candidates, even visiting New Jersey as recently as Sunday to stump for Jon Corzine,” CBS News told us in regard to its exit polling:

Still, majorities of voters in both states (55 percent in Virginia and 60 percent in New Jersey) said President Obama was not a factor in their vote today. Those who said Mr. Obama was a factor in New Jersey divided as to whether their vote was a vote for the president (19 percent) or against him (20 percent). In Virginia, slightly fewer voters said their vote was for Mr. Obama (18 percent) than against him (24 percent).

Among Corzine supporters in New Jersey, 38 percent said one reason for their vote was to express support for Mr. Obama, while 39 percent of Christie voters said it was to express opposition to Mr. Obama.

Two thoughts here. One: You would think that a guy who appeared multiple times on the trail in two states that he carried just a year ago could generate enough excitement that the number who voted to show some support for him would exceed the number who voted to show opposition. But you would be wrong, wouldn’t you? Two: The problem with asking whether Obama was a factor in someone’s vote is that there’s a disconnect between the man himself and his policies. CNN noted it this morning: “The survey suggests that the president’s approval rating remains over 50 percent even though most Americans disapprove of how Obama is handling the economy, health care, Afghanistan, Iraq, unemployment, illegal immigration and the federal budget deficit.” And in fact, in tonight’s exit polls we find this eye-popper:
A majority of voters in both states said they are worried about the direction of the nation’s economy over the next year. 85 percent of Virginia voters said they are worried, as are 90 percent of voters in New Jersey. These percentages were similar on Election Day in 2008.

A year later and no Change. Was that a “factor” in people’s votes tonight? I’m going to guess, since we’re cracking 85 percent on the low end of those who are worried, that it was. Oh, one other polling number from CNN worth noting: The Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot among registered voters is down to six points, the lowest it’s been since 2004. The last poll taken by CNN before the 1994 elections showed the Democrats by three. Perspective.

If the president wasn’t on voters’ minds, what was? “The economy and jobs are the number on issue on the minds of voters in Virginia, according to data from CNN exit polls Tuesday,” reported the network. “Forty-six percent of Virginian voting Tuesday, as Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat Creigh Deeds faced off for the governor’s mansion, say that the economy and jobs are the most important issue to their vote. One in four indicate that health care reform is their most pressing issue, 14 percent said taxes were upmost on their minds, and 8 percent suggest that transportation woes were most pressing.”

Independent voters are moving strongly to Republican candidates in the New Jersey and Virginia governors races, an ominous sign for Democrats whose gains in 2006 and 2008 were built on heavy support from unaligned voters.

Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R) is walloping New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) among independents with a 58 percent to 31 percent margin, according to exit polling in the contest.

If those numbers hold it would represent a major turnaround from 2008 when President Barack Obama won independents 51 percent to 47 percent over Arizona Sen. John McCain. In both of those races, independents comprised just more than one-quarter of the New Jersey electorate.

In Virginia, former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell’s (R) victory was driven by his wide 65 percent to 34 percent margin among independents. Compare that to the 48 percent Obama won among independents in Virginia in 2008 and you begin to see the depths of the rout currently underway in the Commonwealth.

Obama’s appeal to independents was at the foundation of his successful 2008 coalition. And, Independents are an increasing block of the national electorate and, as a result, their importance will only increase between now and November 2010.

With gubernatorial losses in Virginia and New Jersey, should Democrats be dismayed about their chances of swaying independents in the midterms? Not at all, says Markos Moulitsas at his Daily Kos:

This is not a nationalized election. Democratic special election victories in early 2004 had no bearing on the beating we took that November, while a solid Republican showing in MA-05 in 2007 had no bearing on the trashing they took in November of 2008. These were not nationalized elections, and focused mostly on local issues.

Republicans will spin any gains as a repudiation of Obama, but they risk the same level of delusion that I suffered when I thought winning special elections in South Dakota and Kentucky meant anything more than “good Democratic candidates running on local issues beat shitty Republican ones.”

In Virginia, McDonnell (R) was by far a better candidate than the Democrats’ Deeds. And while NJ Gov. Jon Corzine continues to suffer from approval ratings in the 30s, the race is only competitive because the Republican has turned out to be a horrendous candidate. Incumbents with approval ratings in the 30s have no business winning reelection.

All that aside, the race I most care about tonight is Question 1. I’d immediately trade the rest away in a heartbeat to preserve equality in Maine.

You may have to, Kos. Will his larger point survive a Chris Christie win in New Jersey? The Corner’s Jonah Goldberg doesn’t think so: “I don’t see how the White House can spin it away. Remember their explanation for Deeds’ loss was that Deeds didn’t embrace Obama enough. Corzine hugged Obama and made the election about Obama in a state Obama carried by 15 points and where Dems outnumber Republicans by a wide margin. And he lost. That’s gotta hurt.”

So, what lessons will the president take from the results? None, apparently, at least tonight. “President Obama is not planning to watch Tuesday nights election returns, Obama aides Robert Gibbs and David Axelrod” told CNN’s Ed Henry. “Obama is more likely to watch Tuesday night’s Chicago Bulls game.” Well, that’s likely to be more competitive than Virginia was.

Bad candidates and bad campaigns. Bad economy didn’t help either. A better economy might have pulled Corzine through, to what extent that’s Obama’s fault is hard to say. Note that around 30% of the voters in both states also said they voted against a candidate rather than for one. Note also that it appears Owens will win in NY 23rd. What does that mean? Virginia and New Jersey have had republican governors before, when was the last time NY 23rd had a democratic rep? And that was the seat that was dominated by the “conservative” wing of the republican party. If Maine goes for gay marriage, I’d consider it a win.

President Obama didn’t lose anything folks. This country is in crisis not because of the current administration but because of the fact that the previous administration ran it into the ground. I love all of the pundits and reporters at publications like NYT who are now calling these election results a referendum on Mr. Obama. What awful reporting and headlines. And to think that you have to reach out to folks from the Daily Kos and (opposite extreme) whackos like Jonah Goldberg to give it some “balance.”

I don’t fear our current leadership and direction, I fear the mindless voters who think that eight years of horrible governance and policies can be corrected in one year.

the results of the nj and va gubernatorial races were not necessarily a referendum on obama or his party, but they could be a harbinger of things to come. as the party in power it’s encumbent for the democrats, obama included, to toss timidity aside and take bold decisive action that will enable the electorate to have confidence that the company is moving in the right direction. this includes creating jobs and protecting the electorate – both in and out of the workforce.

Why is a governor “blamed’ by the tough economic times the whole nation experiences? Tough times brought about by the former WH occupant – the incompetent who is a registered member of the same political party both governors-elect are.
Makes no sense to me.

Congratulations for the two GOP wins in STATE GOVERNOR races, NJ and Va. But Democrats won 2 seats in the U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, in California and New York. Bad for Barry? Don’t think so. Set the tone for 2010? Maybe on a local level. Democrats picked up a new seat in Congress this time.

Corizine – or whatever his name is – had a considerable number of faux pas (ending up in a car wreck and in the hospital because his driver was speeding); putting his foot in his mouth combined with an economic crash that left the budegt short, people unemployed, a need to raise taxes resulting in massive whining and wailing from NJ residents.

Virginia is VIrginia. It switches parties for governor regularly – kind of like having blue cheese salad dressing and then going to French and back to blue cheese.

It is MEANINGLESS. It is NOISE. It shows nothing of substance.

The babbling heads have to have something to babble about so they make mountains not out of molehills but out of invisible nonexistent clouds of dust!

The president certainly isn’t helped by today’s election results, but the real losers are congressional Democrats, in my opinion. In particular they have lost a lot of goodwill by their handling of the healthcare reform bills by not addressing cost factors along with universal coverage. There are vast opportunities to cut costs, and yes, tort reform is one such item. It was significantly watered down in the House bill. By the way, I am an Obama supporter, but not a supporter of many Congressional Democrats.

I do not think the New Jersey elections were a direct repudiation of President Obama. Rather, it was an outraged electorate lashing back at the near –dictatorial powers of New Jersey tax authorities – especially on the County level. Assessments that are far removed from reality are forcing elderly citizens out of the homes that had their mortgages paid off 30years ago. Very little of it finds it’s ways to schools – most if it is used for useless, expensive projects to justify further increases.

I do not think the New Jersey elections were a direct repudiation of President Obama. Rather, it was an outraged electorate lashing back at the near –dictatorial powers of New Jersey tax authorities – especially at the County level. Assessments that are far removed from reality are forcing elderly citizens out of the very homes where they had paid off their mortgages 30 years ago. Very little of the tax revenue finds its’ ways to schools – most if it is used for useless, expensive projects to justify further increases for the following fiscal year budget. .

The poll numbers in this report show that insecurity about employment and health care are still the top issues for voters one year later, but since the Democrats (most obviously in Congress) have done not very much to address these problems it is not surprising to observe a significant percentage of independent voters bailing out in the way they can in a two-party system: vote for the other guys.

“Even safe Democrats feeling at risk.” The POLITICO this morning. And nothing that the President wants to do can get done without the “safe Democrats.” I imagine that the WH won’t be only watching a Bulls game; they are in the game of their political lives. And know it.

This is the standard NJ rollercoaster. We get a Republican governor who runs up the bills “borrow and spend,” then we get a Democrat who gets blamed for actually trying to pay the bills. Everyone here complains about property taxes, which are admittedly too high … I could solve NJ’s budget problems, though, in two steps.

1. Privatise the schools and make them pay-as-you-go. No kids, you pay nothing. One kid, you pay a base rate plus any extras (band, sports) you wish to add. Two, you pay twice as much. If you have a handicapped kid, the first one is a public service, on the state. (A compassion levy on all taxpayers would underwrite that.) Any additional ones, you pay all costs – base school rate plus any special services. (The New Yorker covered a case awhile back in central Jersey – I remember the town but won’t mention it – of a family that had FOUR autistic kids in a row and dumped them on the school system. If you find you’re making a defective product, shut down the assembly line!) This would solve your property tax problem at a stroke and also discourage the current influx of overbreeding couples looking for a free ride on the backs of taxpayers.

2. Tax the places of worship. Huge, sumptuous properties are devoted to the housing and care of an incorporeal being. Jesus hung around with a tax collector, said to render unto Caesar that which is Caesar’s, and preached that where your treasure is, there will your heart be also. Let’s see believers put their money where their mouth is. (Perhaps craft an exemption for property that is used for nonsectarian charitable purposes such as a soup kitchen open to all.)

Governor Fatso wouldn’t dare, and the state will dig itself deeper into the hole.

I don’t think the republicans should start partying yet. They just lost a congressional seat in upstate New York, a district which is overwhelmingly republican, and a republican has held that seat since at least the turn of the last century.

It is nice to know that Rush, Palin, Thompson, Armey and the rest of those mouths didn’t have much influence up there.

I have been a democrat for all my life but I did not vote for Obama. The main reason – I would not have hired him as a manager of a business because of lack of experience in making decision that are timely, sometimes with limited information even with expediency and taking risks and managing (not manipulating) people with different talents and points of view. Since I could not vote for xxxx-Palin ticket, I did a write-in vote for Hillary. yes, i know I wasted my vote but I voted my conscience. And now my fears have come true. Obama makes Carter look like a strong leader with better oratory. But he has become a drag on the democratic candidates and will continue to do so if the economic situation and the war in Afganistan continue to worsen. These two topics got him elected because he “SPOKE” better than McCain and Hillary. But they spoke the truth and he spoke of hope. But as Hillary siad in one of the debates: Hope is not a policy”. We have elected Audacity of Hope. What we have seen so far in only Audacity. Hope has faded. Now I hope that the democratic leaders dump Obama and find someone with more governing experience, someone like Jim Webb.

I think the press has this wrong and is actively contributing to the dumbing down of America – on both sides, liberal and conservative, My vote for Christie had nothing to do with Obama and the same can be said of many people I know – in 2008 I voted for Obama and prefer him greatly to anyone the GOP would put out right now. Corzine spent a fortune of his own money and was either advertising him with Obama or showing Christie to be a fat Bush-lackey, both of which are ridiculous images that did nothing to influence the election. Christie is not an arch conservative, he is a centrist like most politicnas but has an excellent record in that the Newark Federal Prosecutors office he led has put 130 corrupt GOP and Democratic politicans in jail in the last 8 years. His staff was not made up of conservatives – he hired qualified people who were on all sides of issues and the new Federal Prosecutor Paul FIshman who was appointed by Obama is not a Christie-adversary.

People outside of NJ don’t seem to remember that in the last 10 years we have had a democratic senator (Torrecelli) and Governor (McGreevy) resign in disgrace and have trotted out a 90 year old Lautenberg back to the US Senate who appears to do nothing except be a rich democrat. If you add up our income taxes, property taxes, sin taxes, tolls, sales taxes and other local taxes and fees and plop them on top of a federal income tax we are among the most overtaxed people in the nation. We also get very little back from Washington for what we send there. Our cities are awful and were made so by Dems like Sharpe James running Newark like his personal bank account for 12 years. In the last several years something like 7 out of every 8 jobs created were for state employees and taxpayers are footing the bill for their salaries, benefits and pensions. Pennsylvania has aggressively been luring businesses to their side of the Deleware River by being more business friendly and if you lived in Bucks County PA verses Mercer County NJ you would have the same lifestyl with a lower cost of living. The middle, upper-middle
and wealthy are fed up with how this state operates and were ready for change – the same way we were fed up with Bush and wanted a change.

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The Thread is an in-depth look at how the major news events and controversies of the day are being viewed and debated across the online spectrum. Compiled by Peter Catapano, an editor in The Times’s Opinion section, the Thread is published every Saturday in response to breaking news.