"...and they're still here, although nowadays, they're disturbed every few months by a new launching.

It has taken nine Saturn VB launches so far to put the Ares complex into orbit. Today's will be the tenth. So nesting isn't so good anymore"

So I think the book says there are three pads, but maybe it's four. So three Saturn V's could be on the pad with the MS-IVB, MS-II, and #1 ET ready to go.

The pace of the moon campaign had launches from Apollo 8 - 11 about one every two months.

Given that, with 4 mobile pads, we would have the three launchers above standing ready with no reason I can see that ET#2 two would be stacked and ready to go. (If they were empty, I'd see no reason why they would need a VB, but will give Baxter that.)

I think I got the sequence right. I'm not sure how long the stacking procedure was, but if we had 4 bays, 4 Crawlers, and 5 LUTs, I'm thinking we could stack and get to the pad in 60 days. Maybe faster.

We don't really know how many other launches there were.

I would also expect 2 Saturn IB launches, maybe 3 to assemble the Ares Core, but I agree tankers would be automated.And then every 180 days or so, maybe Skylab Launches.

I've been enamored with this book since I read in 1995. I was planning the Saturn VB from then until Feb 1998 when I moved down here (but I used Titan 7 segment SRBs), and the MEM from about 2000 until 2006 or so.

There had to be two MEM test flights, since a second was with John Young piloting a landing at Edwards. The "Cold soak" long duration flight was cancelled. Which was to be Natalie's first flight.

And I agree, there is no way that it could have been done with a monthly flight to assemble. I think it had to be within 90 days, if that could be done. If there was a 5th mobile launcher, two vehicles could have been stacking while 3 were on the pad. That is only 2 more than real life. And we have the 3rd, possibly 4th pad. So, maybe 2 flights a week for assembly? Can you imagine one CT taking an empty ML back to the VAB while another rolls out with a full Sat VB!

The 1st test flight of the MEM was just the previous fall, so the second may have been the previous winter, November or December. That cuts it rather close to the March launch of the Challenger MEM, but at least it went up on the last flight. And we know Columbia Aviation was working around the clock to get it ready!

The thing that really bothers me is the fuel taken in the MS-IVB and MS-II to Mars and the boil off. Would it last the 2 years of the mission? Even with my added blankets on the outside of the tank? Which is another reason I am not so sure that the MS stages or ETs were launched empty. Hence the use of the big Saturn VB.

Money seams to have not been much of a problem, with everything thrown into this flight in NASA's budget. Moonlab and Skylab were done by then, and no unmanned missions at all. But after Ares....I just don't see any more missions to come. I think everything went in for one shot.

It's one of the poignancies of the book. Just about everything gets sacrificed for one shot of Mars. Apollo landings past 14 (which becomes a J class mission), Pioneer Venus, Pioneer Jupiter-Saturn, Viking, Voyager, the Space Shuttle. There were however two Skylabs and Moonlab (a wet Saturn workshop in lunar orbit) to get long duration experience. And of course the tragic flight of Apollo N. A couple of times characters wonder at what might have been - the Space Shuttle, Voyager, etc.

Logged

"There is nobody who is a bigger fan of sending robots to Mars than me... But I believe firmly that the best, the most comprehensive, the most successful exploration will be done by humans" Steve Squyres

What I recently found very interesting was, buried in the narrative, there were 3 Skylab Missions/year from 1973 (all apparently launched on Saturn IB as wet workshops) for at least 36 Saturn IB launches and 5 Moonlab Missions, for at least a total of 41 launches.

Then we add Apollo N and the nine development missions culminating with Ares (remembering one exploded) and the five tanker launches, equaling another 15 launches, so we have a grand total of 56.

There is no mention, other than the diverted Moonlab, of additional Skylab launches to replace Skylab 1 or logistics flights, which certainly be needed, say 3 or 4 Skylabs and 1 Logistic flight per year, for about 16 launches, giving us 72.

Contrast this with only 15 shuttle flights from April 1981 to January 1985 and the fictional launch cadence is extremely robust, far from the severely limited program impression you get from the main narrative.

Food for thought.

What happens after the Ares Return in November 1986? More Skylab flights? In support of what?

It would be interesting, but probably depressing, to have VOYAGE: The Return and Beyond.

Perhaps NewSpace takes off, so to speak, but again, for what pupose? And what are the Soviets doing during all this, beyond the single flight to Moonlab? Surely there was more than 1 N-1 Launch.

The book is amazing - I've read it several times. I wish Baxter would do an immediate sequel, but perhaps that wouldn't give us much in the way of satisfaction. I'd prefer he did a sequel set perhaps 25 years after Ares where the world is treating the mission as a previous generation's folly and oddity and that space exploration has become a bit stagnant - maybe even idiotic conspiracy nuts could have something to say about it?!

I'd like to see the Ares Astronauts involved with or perhaps figureheads pining for a revitalized world space program and the prospects for a new Commercial space race to the Moon and beyond. Perhaps Natalie York could be a slightly reclusive Armstrong-like person but her crewmates more passionate about space and agitating for more political and commercial interest and involvement? (Aldrin anyone?)

Steven Baxter could draw his cues and inspirations from today and maybe even have his own Elon Musk equivalent or equivalents! Hey, Dr Baxter - are you reading this?!

« Last Edit: 02/13/2015 11:21 AM by MATTBLAK »

Logged

"Those who can't, Blog". 'Space Cadets' of the World - Let us UNITE!!(crickets chirping)

I love how my modeling thread has become a discussion for this book! It really is a fun book. Plus the discussion is helping me with model ideas.

This launch cadence that Mike has researched is crazy. We are talking 4 pads and 5 MLPs just to accomplish it. 10 Saturn VB launches just for the Ares Mission alone is staggering. That would be the same as every Saturn V launch from Apollo 4 through Apollo 15 would be for a single mission! And in a span of 90 days! Pad 34 would have to stay active to support Sat 1B flights and Skylab.

The astronaut corp would indeed have no lack of missions, but the corp would be much smaller than what we had with shuttle. The loss of the last 3 lunar landings would have been worth it in my opinion.

I don't see York becoming a recluse. She was too opinionated and outgoing for that. She would have been using her fame to promote going back to Mars, and staying there. She would have wanted to go "home" again. I think she would be making the "Get your ass to Mars" t-shirts, just like Buzz is!

The book is amazing - I've read it several times. I wish Baxter would do an immediate sequel, but perhaps that wouldn't give us much in the way of satisfaction. I'd prefer he did a sequel set perhaps 25 years after Ares where the world is treating the mission as a previous generation's folly and oddity and that space exploration has become a bit stagnant - maybe even idiotic conspiracy nuts could have something to say about it?!

I'd like to see the Ares Astronauts involved with or perhaps figureheads pining for a revitalized world space program and the prospects for a new Commercial space race to the Moon and beyond. Perhaps Natalie York could be a slightly reclusive Armstrong-like person but her crewmates more passionate about space and agitating for more political and commercial interest and involvement? (Aldrin anyone?)

Steven Baxter could draw his cues and inspirations from today and maybe even have his own Elon Musk equivalent or equivalents! Hey, Dr Baxter - are you reading this?!

Baxter's novels generally are very dark, even nihilistic. So you might not like it if it happens. The Ares crew don't make it back alive, the US crewed space program dies, The USSR finally lands up on the Moon but abandons it's space program with the breakup. China never puts anyone in space at all........

Probably why Voyage is the only one of his novels I like. if you want to be depressed, read Titan.

But Ron, have you thought of sending photos of your work to Baxter?

Logged

"There is nobody who is a bigger fan of sending robots to Mars than me... But I believe firmly that the best, the most comprehensive, the most successful exploration will be done by humans" Steve Squyres

Voyage is a less dystopic book than most of his others. I would hope that if he did a sequel, he would continue in it's more hopeful vein. And upon reflection I think that the idea that Natalie York might be more like Buzz Aldrin, pushing for a return to Mars is probably more in keeping with her character. But I also see Ralph Gershon as quite a character, likewise pushing for Mars, too. Maybe he could do the Buzz approach and York more dignified!

Also, I've been thinking about the multiple Pad 39 scenarios - would those pads have been quite a lot like the traditional Apollo era ones we know? For the high-thrust, enhanced Saturns, what modifications would they need to the sound suppression systems and what sort of maintenance would they need for the high flight rates? I wonder if anyone would like to take on building a higher-tech, more modern Pad 39C as a large scale model?

Logged

"Those who can't, Blog". 'Space Cadets' of the World - Let us UNITE!!(crickets chirping)

One of the things I liked about Voyage was how much it was based on a very deep understanding of events behind the scenes with Apollo, details which were not readily available for some years after the book was published.

Even now, some things like the deep issues with NERVA which he highlights are not widely understood. It would be good to know the research background to writing the book, what source he read and how be accessed in the early to mid 90s.

Ron, if he response, perhaps you can invite him to join the discussion?

Logged

"There is nobody who is a bigger fan of sending robots to Mars than me... But I believe firmly that the best, the most comprehensive, the most successful exploration will be done by humans" Steve Squyres

I assumed 5 day pause between launches. Ths allows time for orbital assembly and disposal of the tankers before the next launch.I assumed that by this time, NASA could stack, move to the pad, and conduct final preparations within 45 days.We Assumed 4 Pads (39A-D), 5 MLPs/LUTS, and 2 Tractors.I give Ares 1 longer on the pad for final checkout.The last tanker goes up fairly late prior to scheduled departure to top off the fuel tanks.

Enjoy.

EDIT 15 FEB. I've replaced the below text with a table. I can't figure out how to format it as a table. If someone would have a go at it, I'd appreciate it.

Note 1. In the deep background, 3 Skylab Missions/Year are flown throught the book. The Skylab 6 crew above would have flown a 20 day mission after our timeline's Skylab 4 and was also the rescur launch vehicle. Skylab B (in our time line would have been launched in May 1973, but instead was diverted to Moonlab. I hypothesize there are additional yearly or twice-yearly automated resupply missions and the Skylabs are replaced every 3 years or so for possibly as many as 28 additional Saturn IB launches from Pads 34 and 37. Interestingly enough, starting with Skylab 1, there are at least 36 Skylab flights, 5 Moonlab flights, Apollo-N, 7 Ares Development flights, and the 9 Ares assembly flights for at least 58 and perhaps as many as 86 depending on additional Skylab launches and logistics flight. Contrast this rate with the 15 Shuttle launches from August 1977 through January 1985.

EDIT: Note 1.5. Multiple Skylab Flights explains Bleeker's disqualification from Ares 1 of too much time in space. Gershon only has one flight, with Bleeker, and Natalie has none. What was Stone doing all this time?

Note 2. We (Ron and I) postulate the MSI and MSII use automated assembly with a Skylab Crew nearby observing. ET-1 and ET-2 are Semi-Automated, again with a Skylab Crew observing and assisting in some manner. The Tankers are automated as well and dock with the Skylab crew observing.

What would have been going on during the mission? The Skylab flights might have continued.

The book talks about a contingency mission to retrieve the crew if for some reason they are unable to use their own Apollo to deorbit.

Maybe Ron can do a chart with the whole history!

EDIT 14 FEB. Inserted Mattingly into the Skylab 2 crew, added launch for ATM, historic Skylab crews pushed back to 5 and 6, and added Skylab 7 which was a planned mission, originally following Skylab 4 in our time line. Added Post launch timeline.

"There is nobody who is a bigger fan of sending robots to Mars than me... But I believe firmly that the best, the most comprehensive, the most successful exploration will be done by humans" Steve Squyres

This is a great timeline!! And yes, I want to do up a NASA Fact Sheet with graphics of all the missions! I am thinking maybe I should have started this project using the 1/200th scale Saturn V kit. I could have built more models.

Oh, here is something I found on line. The man who in this timeline, inspired a nation to go to Mars. President Kennedy as he would have looked in 1985 for the Ares launch.

Skylab and Moonlab were both wet. The only dry lab was the Mission Module of Ares.

Page reference?

Logged

"There is nobody who is a bigger fan of sending robots to Mars than me... But I believe firmly that the best, the most comprehensive, the most successful exploration will be done by humans" Steve Squyres