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A Chicago Cubs BlogMon, 30 Mar 2015 15:39:50 +0000en-UShourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.0.1Wild Card recap/previewhttp://obstructedview.net/previews/wild-card-recappreview.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=wild-card-recappreview
http://obstructedview.net/previews/wild-card-recappreview.html#commentsWed, 01 Oct 2014 17:07:46 +0000http://obstructedview.net/?p=16340*I meant to publish this yesterday, but got caught up in work before I could finish it. What a game last night. I’ve been on the record that I’m a fan of the current wild card format. In a perfect world I’d rather have it just be the two best teams in each league playing in […]]]>

*I meant to publish this yesterday, but got caught up in work before I could finish it.

What a game last night. I’ve been on the record that I’m a fan of the current wild card format. In a perfect world I’d rather have it just be the two best teams in each league playing in a long World Series like it was a century ago, but $$$. I feel awful for Geo and Shark and the rest of the former Cubs on that A’s team, as well as their fans. The team made all the right moves to go balls to the wall for building a postseason roster and it sucks that it didn’t get rewarded, but I guess that’s just how things go for the A’s.

I started the game conflicted as to which team I wanted to root for but as the game went on I found myself pulling more and more for the A’s, especially after the announcers kept going on and on about Ned Yost’s hard-on for small ball. I’m not someone who follows the AL very closely so obviously I don’t really know any of the players, but I kind of came away not liking anyone on the Royals, especially Eric Hosmer for no reason in particular that I can pin down. I thought Yost pulled Shields too early but I don’t really have that big of a problem with him going to Yordano Ventura.

Jon Lester pitched a heck of a game yesterday, and was much better than his final statline showed. I’m really hoping that the Cubs bring him to Wrigley next year.

If the Giants-Pirates game is even half as exciting as this one it should be a fun night.

Team Overviews

(respective league rankings in parens)

Athletics

wRC+: 101 (7th)

UBR: -1.3 (8th)

UZR: 24.3 (5th)

DRS: 32 (3rd)

SP FIP-: 102 (8th)

RP FIP-: 94 (6th)

R+RBI: 1415 (4th)

Run differential: +157 (1st)

Royals

wRC+: 94 (11th)

UBR: -10.4 (15th)

UZR: 61.1 (1st)

DRS: 40 (2nd)

SP FIP-: 101 (7th)

RP FIP-: 86 (1st)

R+RBI: 1255 (9th)

Run differential: +27 (7th)

Giants

wRC+: 101 (3rd)

UBR: 2.1 (6th)

UZR: 2.9 (7th)

DRS: -5 (12th)

SP FIP-: 106 (11th)

RP FIP-: 100 (11th)

R+RBI: 1301 (5th)

Run differential: +51 (3rd)

Pirates

wRC+: 108 (2nd)

UBR: 7.5 (1st)

UZR: -40.3 (15th)

DRS: 36 (4th)

SP FIP-: 107 (13th)

RP FIP-: 104 (13th)

R+RBI: 1341 (3rd)

Run differential: +51 (3rd)

It’s still strange to see those Giants league rankings – a top offense and below average pitching is not what you expect from the general image the team has had for the past decade or so. Also, looking at Pittsburgh’s numbers you gotta love those defensive stats (dying laughing).

Pitching Matchup

ERA, FIP, xFIP listed for each pitcher

Edinson Volquez, RHP (3.04, 4.15, 4.20)

Is this a typo or something? With the season on the line Edinson Volquez, who has posted a total fWAR of 2.2 over the last five seasons combined (and 0.7 this year) is starting for the Pirates. Granted he’s been avoiding doing Edinson Volquez things for the most part this year, i.e. walking the planet, but wow. To be fair, Pirates ace Gerrit Cole pitched on Sunday when the Pirates still had a shot at winning the division, so I don’t really have a problem there…but Liriano? I guess he’s a higher variance guy, and did walk nearly 15 batters in his last three starts, but he’s on normal rest and is the guy I’d much rather hand the ball to.

Since joining the Giants rotation full-time in 2010, Bumgarner has been a machine, and 2014 has arguably been the best season of his career. He posted a career high in strikeout rate and career low in walks, and even posted a .329 wOBA with his bat. It’s pretty clear which team has the advantage on paper tonight, but a lot can happen in baseball, and we saw last night what kind of home crowd we can expect in Pittsburgh tonight.

I’ve got the Giants winning 5-2, because reasons.

]]>http://obstructedview.net/previews/wild-card-recappreview.html/feed0Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (64-82) at Pittsburgh Pirates (77-69)http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-chicago-cubs-64-82-at-pittsburgh-pirates-77-69.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=series-preview-chicago-cubs-64-82-at-pittsburgh-pirates-77-69
http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-chicago-cubs-64-82-at-pittsburgh-pirates-77-69.html#commentsFri, 12 Sep 2014 13:36:54 +0000http://obstructedview.net/?p=16308The Pirates are only 2.5 back from the Cardinals going into this series, and I wouldn’t mind seeing that lead shrink even further with the Cubs help. It could be a tall order even with the Cubs help though, as the Cardinals are playing a team even worse than the Rizzo/Castro-less Cubs as they host […]]]>

The Pirates are only 2.5 back from the Cardinals going into this series, and I wouldn’t mind seeing that lead shrink even further with the Cubs help. It could be a tall order even with the Cubs help though, as the Cardinals are playing a team even worse than the Rizzo/Castro-less Cubs as they host Colorado in St. Louis.

The Cubs are riding a six-game losing streak where they’ve been outscored by what feels like 50 runs a game. Progress is thinking that this isn’t a big deal since Castro and Rizzo aren’t around, rather than what I would have felt like if this happened a year ago, had I not already stopped paying attention to the team last September.

Team Overviews

Cubs

wRC+: 88 (11th)

UBR: 6.9 (2nd)

UZR: 7.7 (6th)

DRS: -12 (13th)

SP FIP-: 95 (2nd)

RP FIP-: 88 (4th)

R+RBI: 1079 (11th)

Buccos

wRC+: 107 (1st)

UBR: 5.3 (3rd)

UZR: -42.3 (15th)

DRS: +33 (4th)

SP FIP-: 109 (15th)

RP FIP-: 104 (14th)

R+RBI: 1213 (2nd)

Wow, the Pirates are a much different team than I expected. Obviously McCutchen is good but I would never have guessed that they would be leading the league in offense. Russell Martin, Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, and Neil Walker have all posted wOBA north of .350. Their starter numbers look fine at first glance (team FIP of 3.91), my brain just hasn’t adjusted to how pitching dominated MLB has become lately. Aside from Melancon and Tony Watson (who has somehow won TEN GAMES as a reliever), their pen has not been the shutdown machine of years past either.

Three of the division races are pretty much wrapped up, with the O’s, Angels, and Nats all holding huge leads over their opponents. Meanwhile in the Race to the Top, the Rangers pretty much have a stranglehold on the top pick in next year’s draft due to their garbage fire of a season. It’s only fitting that the capper of it all is their manager resigning amid sexual assault rumors.

Via Mish via @Strange_signs: No cool dogs allowed

Tweet of the decade

Roger Goodell cancels tonight’s NFL game out of respect for 9/11: “Just saw the video of the towers fall for the first time. Heartbreaking.”

Pitching Matchups

Cole’s only made 18 starts this year due to some injury problems, but when he’s been on the mound he’s been great. You pretty much know what you’re going to get from him: lots of 96 mph fastballs. He throws some sinkers and sliders too but that heat is his bread and butter.

Wada on the other hand has managed to post a sub-3 ERA despite barely hitting 90 on the radar gun. Most of his success is built on a .252 BABIP but if you’re inducing crappy contact (and lots of fly balls), that number isn’t too surprising. He faced Pittsburgh in his last start, in which he left in the fourth inning due to an injury.

Doubront’s been better since coming to the Cubs, and is a classic buy low/good peripherals guy. He’ll be one of the roughly 500 back end rotation types the Cubs will have to choose between next year. He also faced the Pirates in his last start, giving up two runs in five innings. He hasn’t really been striking out batters at a clip you’d expect from his minor league numbers but his (not so great) walk rate is right in line.

Locke’s a ground ball machine, and he’s been around the Pirates for far less time than I thought. He made 30 starts last year and had big problems with walks, which is kind of surprising for a sinkerballer. He’s kept the ball in the strike zone this year to much better success, though a rising HR rate ate up a lot of the gains from reducing the walks. He’s coming off his best start of the year, striking out nine Phillies with no walks and one run.

The Cubs stole Turner from the Marlins, trading two non-prospects who were older than him to get him. That said I’m less than whelmed with Turner (really, all the Cubs starters this series). It’s hard to get excited about a guy with a career sub-6.0 K/9 that doesn’t double as a worm exterminator. He’s had more success getting ground balls this year (and some bad BABIP luck) but he isn’t a guy I’m really counting on. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him DFA’d this offseason.

By ERA this is Volquez’s best year by far since his breakout non-ROY season in 2008. His strikeout rate has dropped nearly a third since then, but he’s finally managed to cut down on the walks that have long been his biggest problem and is currently posting the best walk rate of his career. That’s not to say it’s a particularly good one, but going from god-awful to merely average is a huge step.

While the Cubs have done their best to help Pittsburgh out in their quest to reach the playoffs for the second year in a row, the Pirates haven’t done much to help themselves lately. The Cubs swept the previously first place Brewers, but at the same time, the Pirates got swept by the Cardinals. So now the Cardinals are surging and leading the division and Pittsburgh is now behind Milwaukee, Atlanta, and San Francisco in the chase for the chance to participate in the one-game play-in round.

So the Cubs (and their fans) would probably best be served by getting swept by the Pirates thus enhancing the Pirates’ record to give them a boost against the hated Cardinals and bitchy Brewers while simultaneously strengthening the likelihood of the Cubs securing a protected draft pick.

But the Cubs are playing guys like Javier Baez and Jorge Soler and other guys from AAA who have a chance to actually be a part of the Cubs’ future so you’d like to see them play well.

And if the Pirates can’t win a damn game against the walking dead corpse of the Cardinals’ roster they don’t really deserve the Cubs’ help. So fuck them.

Go Cubs.

Pitching matchups:

]]>http://obstructedview.net/previews/chicago-cubs-64-76-vs-pittsburgh-pirates-71-68.html/feed0Series Preview: Brewers (73-63) at Cubs (61-76)http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-brewers-73-63-at-cubs-61-76.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=series-preview-brewers-73-63-at-cubs-61-76
http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-brewers-73-63-at-cubs-61-76.html#commentsMon, 01 Sep 2014 16:19:24 +0000http://obstructedview.net/?p=16278The Brewers started the season scorchingly hot and had a 20-8 record on May 1. Since then they’ve gone 53-55, are currently riding a five game losing streak, and are now tied with the (ugh) Cardinals for the division lead. I think the Pirates end up taking the division by season’s end but that big […]]]>

The Brewers started the season scorchingly hot and had a 20-8 record on May 1. Since then they’ve gone 53-55, are currently riding a five game losing streak, and are now tied with the (ugh) Cardinals for the division lead. I think the Pirates end up taking the division by season’s end but that big lead the Brewers built early in the year has given them a big cushion. (The new-ish look Cubs, by the way, have been 14-13 since the Baez callup).

Team Overviews

NL Rank in parens Brewers

wRC+: 97 (5th)

UBR: 3.9 (4th)

UZR: 8.8 (7th)

DRS: 2 (12th)

SP FIP-: 107 (11th)

RP FIP-: 98 (10th)

Run differential: +15 (5th)

R+RBI: 1131 (2nd)

Cubs

wRC+: 88 (11th) – movin’ on up!

UBR: 6.2 (2nd)

UZR: 16.2 (5th)

DRS: -6 (13th)

SP FIP-: 93 (2nd)

RP FIP-: 88 (4th)

Run differential: -55 (12th)

R+RBI: 1029 (9th)

News, notes, injuries, oaths of vengeance, etc.

Lots of roster shakeups with the waiver trade deadline and September callups. The Brewers picked up Jonathan Broxton from the fading Reds to be their new setup man.

Blake Parker‘s been called up, and Eric Jokisch and others will follow in the next few days. The Cubs already called up all the guys we were expecting to see in September anyway, so there shouldn’t be anything too exciting transaction wise. Kris Bryant is going to stay put.

Carlos Gomez has a sprained wrist and could miss the entire series. A huge blow for the Brewers. Matt Garza has been on the DL for most of the month with a oblique strain but should be back for this series. I’m happy to lift my stance on bunting whenever the Cubs face him.

Shockingly, the Cardinals were really whiny in yesterday’s game. John Lackey tried to get into it with Starlin Castro for cursing at himself in Spanish after a popout on a hung slider, then Matt Holliday and Mike Matheny got all huffy after he was hit by a pitch that got away in a close game and later took an up and in pitch WITH THE BASES LOADED IN A TIE GAME. Fuck Matt Holliday.

Apparently there were a lot of Cubs fans at Busch Stadium this weekend, though I don’t know why they would have been booing the Cardinals pitchers for giving up runs. We all know the Best Fans In Baseball would never boo players on their own team. Maybe it was just weird acoustics.

Bo Porter was fired by the Astros today, after reports last week of him and the seemingly despised by everyone Jeff Luhnow being at odds. Waiting for a bunch of breathless posts from Astros FO types about how the org has finally turned a corner.

The Cubs are honoring the Jackie Robinson West team at Wrigley, which is great. Not so great are the pregame uniforms they’re wearing, which will be used for fundraising.

Seriously? It looks like someone puked all over a jersey.

Probable pitchers

The Turner deal was a good buy-low deal for the Cubs, but he’s looked pretty shitty so far with the Cubs. Of course, a .364 BABIP doesn’t help. He’s managed to limit walks and keep the ball on the ground though, which are encouraging for future success. Still, I have a feeling that a spring training DFA is in his future, if not sooner.

Nelson put up incredible numbers in AAA for the Brewers this year, and has merely been good with the big league club. He’s a sinkerballer who throws around 93-94 and gets strikeouts, and if he keeps his walk rate under control (his biggest problem in the minors) he’ll be a solid piece of this club for some time.

My brain wrote off Gallardo a few years ago for some reason, and I’m baffled as to why. Maybe it’s just that he’s just a Very Good pitcher rather than the Ace label that was thrown around a few years ago, which makes a little sense when you consider who else was on those pitching staffs. He’s having another solid year despite his strikeout rate being way down, relying on more grounders and fewer walks instead.

Arrieta had his first bad non-Coors start of the year in his last time out, though it’s not like GAB is known as a pitchers park. He struggled with his control, walking four batters in four innings but still managing to get eight strikeouts with the six runs allowed. That kind of line feels more like Orioles-era Arrieta. Or Cubs-era EJax. The Cubs are probably moving to a six man rotation, and they might want to take it extra-easy with Arrieta.

This is Garza’s first start back from a month on the DL. Surprisingly he only has two fielding errors this year, teams need to remember to bunt on him. He’s posted a really good BABIP this year, especially for the ground ball pitcher that he’s become. It’s hard to believe that he pitched for the Cubs as recently as last year, it already feels like 5 seasons ago.

Pretty much everything has gone right for Hendricks so far this year. The only game where he got into any real trouble ended up having a big rain delay that knocked him out of the game before the O’s could do more damage to him. He’s been really fun to watch, and it’s great to see him succeed.

]]>http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-brewers-73-63-at-cubs-61-76.html/feed0Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays (55-59) at Javier Baez (2-1)http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-tampa-bay-rays-55-59-at-javier-baez-2-1.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=series-preview-tampa-bay-rays-55-59-at-javier-baez-2-1
http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-tampa-bay-rays-55-59-at-javier-baez-2-1.html#commentsFri, 08 Aug 2014 18:26:45 +0000http://obstructedview.net/?p=16184It’s hard to believe the Rays were ahead of the Cubs in the Race To The Top earlier this year. They take on the Javier Baez and the Baezettes in a weekend series in Wrigley that may or may not see a surge in ticket sales. Team Overviews (respective league ranks in parens) Rays wRC+: […]]]>

It’s hard to believe the Rays were ahead of the Cubs in the Race To The Top earlier this year. They take on the Javier Baez and the Baezettes in a weekend series in Wrigley that may or may not see a surge in ticket sales.

Team Overviews

(respective league ranks in parens)

Rays

wRC+: 105 (5th)

UBR: 8.1 (2nd)

UZR: 11.2 (7th)

DRS: -29 (12th)

SP FIP-: 97 (2nd)

RP FIP-: 102 (12th)

Run differential: -1 (9th)

R+RBI: 880 (11th)

Cubs

wRC+: 89 (12th)

UBR: 5.7 (1st)

UZR: -0.5 (10th)

DRS: -16 (14th)

SP FIP-: 91 (2nd)

RP FIP-: 91 (4th)

Run differential: -43 (12th)

R+RBI: 874 (9th)

News, notes, vengeance pacts, injuries, etc

Neil Ramirez started his rehab in the AZL on Wednesday, aside from that there’s next to no injury news for the Cubs. Felix Doubront threw a bullpen session on Sunday, and it sounds like they’re going to stretch out his dubious DL stint/rehab starts in order to stretch him out for September. I’d be surprised if he’s called up before then.

The Rays have been hit much harder with the injury bug, Wil Myers, Tim Beckham, Jerry Sands, and Matt Moore all hitting the 60-day DL. Kim DeJesus’s husband is also on the DL with a broken hand, and I’m guessing he’ll be out for a few more weeks still, and one of the five billion former Reds catchers that may or may not have killed the Cubs, Ryan Hanigan, is on the DL with an oblique strain.

Chris Coghlan is having a career year, which led to a longish twitter argument between myself and @ajwalsh08, formerly of GROTA as to whether it is for real. I’m hoping to have time in the next week to dive into the numbers (and find comps), but color me highly skeptical of Coghlan’s breakout. He had three straight seasons of sub-replacement level ball before this year. Maybe power does come late, but Joey Bats seems to me like the exception that proves the rule. I’m much more sympathetic to the concept that injuries held him back, but still. Three years.

Pitching matchups

Given Archer’s past with the Cubs, there’s certainly been plenty of ink spilled about his abilities and the trade that sent him to Tampa. While there’s pretty much no doubt whatsoever that it was a strategically awful trade for the Cubs, I’m still kinda meh on all the guys the Cubs sent over to Tampa. Hak-Ju Lee is currently posting a .257 wOBA in AAA for the Rays, Chirinos and Guyer were bench players, and Archer was kind of a mess and it was a big question mark whether or not he was destined for the bullpen. Obviously I’m cherry picking things here and those are just my subjective opinions, but none of those guys were players I was particularly excited about.

Since joining the big league club, Archer has been pretty great, and could be their de facto ace now that David Price is pitching in Detroit. However it’s still very strange to see a guy who had an awful, awful walk rate his entire minor league career improve on it to the tune of 3.1 BB/9 in the bigs. We’ve seen enough recent Transformations that I’m more inclined to believe it than I was even three or four months ago, but I’d still be very nervous if I was a Rays fan. His walk rate has gone up significantly this year, though nowhere near as bad as it was in the minors.

Given the plethora of 4th/5th starter project types the Cubs have acquired recently, Wada’s walking a bit of a tightrope, but so far he’s pitched well enough to stay on the roster. Still, given how Hendricks has pitched even better I’m guessing that he pitches today then gets sent to Iowa to make room for Turner, who is out of options. He struck out six in five innings and change against the dodgers in his last outing.

The Odorizzi trade for the Brewers was pretty much the opposite of the Garza deal – not great for the Brewers when viewed in a vacuum, but pretty sound strategically given what kind of window they had for contending. They picked up Grienke and he was great for them in their (possible window-closing) playoff push all the way to the NLCS, while sending Odorizzi and The Most Exciting Player In Baseball To Post a Career .284 wOBA to KC, among other players. This is Odorizzi’s first full season with the Rays, and he’s been striking out the planet (10.03 K/9).

Edwin Jackson had a good start against his former team, striking out out six with no walks and allowing two runs in six innings, and IIRC seemingly throwing 50 pitches per inning.

Cobb is has quietly been quite good for the past three seasons for the Rays, and someone who is a Rays fan can probably say why he hasn’t had more than 23 starts in any of those years. He gets a ton of grounders, keeps his walk rate under control, and strikes out nearly a batter per inning. He posted back-to-back double digit strikeout games against the Brewers and Cardinals at the end of July so I guess he really likes pitching against the NL Central.

Wood followed up his career-high strikeout game with a kinda weird outing in Colorado. He didn’t get a strikeout until his final inning, walked a couple of guys and gave up some hits (not hard in Coors) and came away with a Quality Start. He’s not 5+ ERA bad, but he’s not 20 straight quality starts good either, and he shouldn’t be too worried about all the back of rotation pitchers breathing down his neck.

]]>http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-tampa-bay-rays-55-59-at-javier-baez-2-1.html/feed0Series Preview: Javier Baez (0-0) at Colorado Rockies (44-67)http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-javier-baez-0-0-at-colorado-rockies-44-67.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=series-preview-javier-baez-0-0-at-colorado-rockies-44-67
http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-javier-baez-0-0-at-colorado-rockies-44-67.html#commentsTue, 05 Aug 2014 16:19:46 +0000http://obstructedview.net/?p=16157The Cubs continue their western road trip with another key series in the Race to the….oh who cares, we’re just tuning in to see Baez, and Baez at Coors Field at that. Aisle424 wrote a great piece this morning on the callup and what it means for the fans and the process. Team Overviews Cubs […]]]>

The Cubs continue their western road trip with another key series in the Race to the….oh who cares, we’re just tuning in to see Baez, and Baez at Coors Field at that. Aisle424 wrote a great piece this morning on the callup and what it means for the fans and the process.

Team Overviews

Cubs

wRC+: 88 (12th)

UBR: 5.7 (1st)

UZR: -0.5 (10th)

DRS: -9 (14th)

SP FIP-: 91 (2nd)

RP FIP-: 89 (3rd)

Run differential: -39 (12th)

R+RBI: 842 (10th)

Rockies

wRC+: 98 (3rd)

UBR: -0.9 (10th)

UZR: 2.4 (7th)

DRS: 11 (7th)

SP FIP-: 109 (13th)

RP FIP-: 103 (13th)

Run differential: -66 (13th)

R+RBI: 1006 (1st)

News, notes, vengeance pacts, injuries, etc

Still lots of injuries in Colorado. Carlos Gonzalez is still dealing with an ankle sprain, which he reaggravated in the Rockies last series. Michael Cuddyer is out with a broken shoulder, and Tulo is still out indefinitely with a hip injury. They also have 60% of their starting rotation on the 60 day DL, so it’s not too surprising their record has taken a cliffdive since their hot start.

Kyuji Fujikawa‘s officially official rehab stint expires today, so the Cubs will have to decide what to do with him. It sounds like he’s ready to go, and he needs a 40 man spot, so we should be seeing a Chris Valaika DFA any time now.

Chris Coghlan‘s suddenly been kinda good over the past month or so, and his numbers this year rival (and are arguably better than) his 2009 rookie of the year campaign. Of course, he put up a total of -1.4 WAR from 2010-2013, so let’s not get too excited and start penciling him in LF for the next few seasons or anything.

More news + notes in today’s DFP, assuming it’s viewable by you common folk.

It looks like USA Today/MLBAM is pulling the plug on Sports on Earth, the second largeish online sports site that actually pays its writers. Bummer, as there was good stuff over there, but I’ve always wondered how much traffic that kind of longish form sports journalism actually pulls, and I guess we have our answer unfortunately.

Pitching Matchups

Anderson has been surprisingly good since coming over to the Rockies. The biggest part of his success this year is the fact that he’s only allowed ONE home run, but you’d expect a guy with a .323 BABIP playing half his games in Coors to have a much higher ERA than 3.12. His last outing was against the Cubs at Wrigley, where he struck out nine in seven innings with two runs on eleven hits and no walks.

He faced off against Wood in that outing, who had yet another rocky start to the game but managed to strike out a career high eleven batters in his six innings of work. His LD rate jumped after the last outing, but for the most part I’m not too worried about Wood.

Watching Arrieta TRANSFORM this year has been tons of fun. He was mowing down the Rockies lineup in his last start with great movement on his pitches, and said after the game that he didn’t even have his best stuff. The last time that he didn’t pitch at least six innings in a start was over two months ago.

Lyles spent three seasons with the Astros, posting a 5+ ERA every year with 65 starts for the team. And somehow I remember him as being one of their better starters. The 2010s Astros, everyone! He’s been one of the rare pitchers who has looked a lot better since moving to Coors. They’re helped by a too-high strand rate and too-low BABIP, but his MO in Coors has been to allow as few fly balls as possible, which has limited the HRs. Teams feasted on his fastball(s) in previous years but he’s been about average with them in 2014.

Hendricks looked fantastic pitching in front of his local-ish friends and family against the loaded Dodgers lineup. He’s never going to be a big strikeout guy, but if he can keep painting the corners like he did in that game he’ll have a place on this team. Given how many extra inning games the Cubs have played lately, the fact that he’s gone 6-7 innings in every start must have helped further endear him to the coaching staff.

]]>http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-javier-baez-0-0-at-colorado-rockies-44-67.html/feed0Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (45-62) at Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles (62-47)http://obstructedview.net/uncategorized/series-preview-chicago-cubs-45-62-at-los-angeles-dodgers-of-los-angeles-62-47.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=series-preview-chicago-cubs-45-62-at-los-angeles-dodgers-of-los-angeles-62-47
http://obstructedview.net/uncategorized/series-preview-chicago-cubs-45-62-at-los-angeles-dodgers-of-los-angeles-62-47.html#commentsFri, 01 Aug 2014 21:37:48 +0000http://obstructedview.net/?p=16127It’s Vin Scully week! Even better, we’ll get another Vin Scully week next year, as he returns for his 66th season broadcasting Dodgers baseball. @CeeAngi did a great piece on Scully’s process and career last month, which is worth a read (or re-read). The Dodgers were in on a bunch of players at the deadline, […]]]>

The Dodgers were in on a bunch of players at the deadline, but didn’t end up making any deals. They’ve been in a strange sort of limbo that many thought would lead for them to make a deal to get rid of one of their four ‘starting’ OFs. Well, three guys who are being paid like starting outfielders and one guy who is actually producing (Puig). Even funnier is that their fifth OF, Scott Van Slyke, has outperformed all the highly paid guys as well. Carl Crawford, by the way, has put up a .244/.282/.358 line. Before being released by the Yankees in the final year of his deal, Soriano put up .221/.244/.367. Who is laughing now? Oh wait, it’s me.

Team Overviews

Cubs

wRC+: 87 (13th)

UBR: 5.7 (1st)

UZR: -0.5 (10th)

DRS: -9 (14th)

SP FIP-: 91 (2nd)

RP FIP-: 90 (3rd)

Run differential: -46 (12th)

R+RBI: 812 (11th)

Dodgers

wRC+: 108 (1st)

UBR: 2.1 (7th)

UZR: -5.4 (12th)

DRS: +2 (11th)

SP FIP-: 97 (4th)

RP FIP-: 101 (11th)

Run differential: +60 (2nd)

R+RBI: 888 (3rd)

News, notes, vengeance pacts, injuries, etc.

Not a ton of news on the injury front with the Dodgers, for once. Chad Billingsley is still on the DL following TJ surgery in April 2013, which required another surgery last month. Chone Figgins is on the DL with a strained quad, and Erisbel Arruebarrena is out with a hip flexor strain.

Kyuji Fujikawa is most of the way back from his TJS, and I’m a little surprised he hasn’t been called up already.

As a less sleep-deprived Brett points out in his bullets post from this morning, the Cardinals told their players The Right Way about being traded, namely, Joe Kelly and Allen Craig found out through media reports that they’d been traded. Craig in particular was pretty pissed off. I’m not linking Joe Strauss, because he’s a trolling douchebag, but his piece today was pretty much an ode to what a big swinging dick John Mozeliak is. I’m disappointed it didn’t include the line “I’m not here to make friends”.

Former Cub Darwin Barney is currently in ABQ, my local-ish team of the future. Maybe the high altitude will help him get over the .350 SLG hump.

That Clayton Kershaw guy is pretty good. Too bad he’s not pitching this series. His numbers for the last two months (h/t Riz)

Pitching Probables

Hendricks put together yet another solid start, pitching into the seventh inning and allowing only a solo HR. That was enough to give him the loss against Adam Wainwright however, so the Cubs probably should have moved him at the deadline since he doesn’t have TWTW. He’s gone at least six innings in all three starts, and has a 2.33 strikeout to walk ratio in 19.1 IP on the year.

Haren was a guy we were hoping the Cubs would go after last offseason, but things worked out much more nicely with Hammel than they have for the Dodgers with Haren. He’s still doing Dan Haren things, namely, not walking any one, but his strikeout rate has seen a big drop and he’s giving up a lot of HRs, even relative to his past homer-prone ways. His cutter is down to 85 mph, down from 88 in his most successful seasons. The most surprising thing about his season is that he’s made all 21 starts without a DL stint.

After two indifferent to bad starts, Wada righted the ship and looked pretty good against the Rockies. He struck out six and walked one in seven innings, allowing just one run.

It feels like Ryu has been pitching for the Dodgers forever already, it’s hard to believe that it’s only his second season. He’s been even better than his solid debut season, getting both more strikeouts and issuing even fewer free passes. He throws five pitches all with more or less equal frequency, and all of them are above average, except maybe his curveball.

Well, not really, though I can see where he’s coming from. Beckett’s had a ton of luck with his .249 BABIP, hence the low ERA. But he is being hit a lot less hard than last year. Beckett had a whopping 24.1% LD rate last year and not surprisingly an ERA above five. This year, it’s 18.1%. Jackson meanwhile is being hit even harder at 25.6%. I was one of the first guys in line to defend Jackson last year based on his peripherals, but this year there’s not much of a defense, he’s been terrible. As MO keeps pointing out on twitter Travis Wood has been just as bad, but his peripherals look way better and that stretch of something like 20 straight quality starts last year bought him a ton of rope with the fans.

]]>http://obstructedview.net/uncategorized/series-preview-chicago-cubs-45-62-at-los-angeles-dodgers-of-los-angeles-62-47.html/feed0Series Preview: Cubs (40-54) at Diamondbacks (40-56)http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-cubs-40-54-at-diamondbacks-40-56.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=series-preview-cubs-40-54-at-diamondbacks-40-56
http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-cubs-40-54-at-diamondbacks-40-56.html#commentsSat, 19 Jul 2014 01:10:52 +0000http://obstructedview.net/?p=15939It’s nice to have a competent front office. Sure, the team is really bad, but I don’t ever really worry about the little things, like our GM so offending a draftee that his agent]]>

It’s nice to have a competent front office. Sure, the team is really bad, but I don’t ever really worry about the little things, like our GM so offending a draftee that his agent won’t even return the team’s calls on signing deadline day. I never thought that Jim Hendry was a terrible GM, but were he in charge right now, I would be terrified that someone was about to get traded because the team has too many shortstops or somesuch. As it is, I am only vaguely aware of Mets fans who think that Starlin Castro is destined to be headed to the Big Apple for Bartolo Colon and Daniel Murphy.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, don’t seem to be very functional at the moment. After years of swapping talent for grit and a floundering start to 2014, they brought in Tony La Russa as Chief Baseball Officer, to oversee Kevin Towers in a role that he doesn’t even seem to understand. La Russa seems to be comfortable interacting with manager Kirk Gibson, at least, setting up strategy sessions that are undoubtedly worthy of a thousand facepalms:

As for Gibson, the two have been in semi-regular contact, with La Russa acting upon Gibson’s insistence on being critiqued. ...

“I gave him a situation that came up and said, ‘Here’s a test.’ He listened and he wasn’t offended. He knows I’m on his side.”

Last week, an unnamed executive from an American League team told ESPN.com that the Diamondbacks’ current situation made trade talks confusing. Between Towers and La Russa, the executive said, it’s hard to tell who’s calling the shots. La Russa understands the sentiment, saying the “delineation of responsibilities” is not “crystal clear here or beyond here.”

“But if they’re interested in talking to the Diamondbacks, they can call either one of us and we’re going to talk to each other,” La Russa said. “As a matter of fact, there was one gentleman who called and left a message for both of us, which I think is the smartest thing. But we’re going to communicate and we are communicating.”

On the offensive side, shortstop Chris Owings is currently on the DL with a sore shoulder, leaving Trevor BauerDidi Gregorius to man the position. A.J. Pollock, who was having a breakout season, is out with a fractured hand. Mark Trumbo is back after having been sidelined for most of the season with a foot injury.

For the Cubs, Emilio Bonifacio is currently rehabbing in AA. Don’t be surprised if Arismendy Alcantara gets sent down when he returns, if only temporarily in an attempt to drum up some trade interest.

Pitching Matchups

Stellar matchup here. Cahill and the $17 million remaining on his contract were actually sent to the minors in June. This is his first start back with the big club. His time in Reno didn’t go all that well, as he walked 17% of the hitters he faced.

Arrieta has been magnificent this year, even though the projection systems aren’t really buying it yet. If he can maintain, he could turn out to be a real steal for the Cubs. Collmenter has been pressed out of his typical long-man role and into starting duty with mixed results. His periphs have predictably suffered, even though his ERA is fine. I think a lot of Collmenter’s semi-success stems from the novelty of his delivery, which is about as over-the-top as humanly possible.

]]>http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-cubs-40-54-at-diamondbacks-40-56.html/feed1Series Preview: Nationals (41-36) at Cubs (32-44)http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-nationals-41-36-at-cubs-32-44.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=series-preview-nationals-41-36-at-cubs-32-44
http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-nationals-41-36-at-cubs-32-44.html#commentsThu, 26 Jun 2014 22:52:20 +0000http://obstructedview.net/?p=15741The Cubs close out this homestand with a four game set against the Nationals, including a scheduled doubleheader on Saturday and a day off on Sunday. The off-day is to accommodate the city’s Pride Parade, which brings a ton of people into the greater Lakeview area. No word on whether Wrigleyville residents are shocked to […]]]>

The Cubs close out this homestand with a four game set against the Nationals, including a scheduled doubleheader on Saturday and a day off on Sunday. The off-day is to accommodate the city’s Pride Parade, which brings a ton of people into the greater Lakeview area. No word on whether Wrigleyville residents are shocked to discover that this is happening. There’s money just sitting there on the ground waiting to be picked up for anyone who wants to set up a www.isthereachicagoprideparadetoday.com site.

It’s a smart gesture by the Cubs to the community, but another WTF moment for MLB’s schedule makers. In an echo of the Cubs ONLY MARQUEE GAME OF THE YEAR for the 100th anniversary, people knew that this day would be a special case. So why the hell are the Cubs even in town this weekend? I’m still more annoyed about the Cubs playing a franchise with next to no history for their big milestone game, but this is still pretty lame. Maybe we’ll at least see a lot of Ernie Banks / “Let’s Play Two” references this weekend.

Oblivious that I am, I had no idea Rendon was having such a big year. He’s taken the opportunity offered by Zimmerman’s injury and capitalized on it big time. He has a .273/.335/.474 line on the year, for a .352 wOBA at third base. Not too shabby. The Nats offense gets the job done, but it’s obviously their pitching that has them atop the NL East. I’m a little surprised that they’re not at or near the top in K%, but just as importantly they’re the best in the NL in preventing free passes. Somehow the Cubs are dodging Stephen Strasburg this week.

Pitching Matchups

Fister is a ground ball machine who throws a lot of strikes. In nine starts this year he’s walked a grand total of SIX batters. His GB rate is down a bit this year, and he’s benefited from his defense turning a lot more of those grounders into outs than expected. Fister came to the Nats before the 2013 season in a baffling trade that sent a utility guy, a LOOGY, and their #7 prospect to the Tigers in return for arguably one of the top 20 pitchers in the game.

Wood’s peripherals aren’t far off from last year’s fantastic season, but he’s had a lot less luck with balls in play and thus a 4.55 ERA. His average looking .293 BABIP doesn’t look that alarming until you consider that his career mark is somewhere around .265. After a strong eight inning outing against the Phils, he was unable to make it out of the fifth inning against their cross-state rivals. I’m not too worried about Wood, and I’m still feeling quite good about that Marshall trade.

We’re at the stage of the season where all we’re hoping out of a Hammel start is that he doesn’t get injured. He’s done what he needs to do to get a nontrivial trade piece back at the deadline. He held the Pirates to two runs in seven innings in his last outing, and has only once walked more than two batters in a start this season.

Roark has made 15 starts for the Nats and has been quietly great. Like Fister his game plan seems to be to throw a lot of strikes and get the ball on the ground. He’s due for the regression fairy but even after that happens the Nats made a good choice to make him a regular. The Nats acquired him from the Rangers in 2010 for the ghost of Cristian Guzman.

This is Beeler’s MLB debut, so I listed his 2014 minor league ERA and FIP. Enjoy your cup of coffee, kid. He’s already got his TJS out of the way, and missed a big chunk of last year to a torn finger ligament. His ceiling seems to be a fourth starter type, so we might be seeing more of him for the next few years. Maybe he’s the next Chris Rusin!

Gonzalez has always been a high strikeout, high walk pitcher and this year’s results are looking a lot more like the relatively wild Gio from his time with Oakland than the Cy Young contender he’s been since moving to the NL. He’s had some bad luck with sequencing this year, but he has to worry about that rising walk rate as well. He hasn’t had a start all season without at least one walk.

Now this should be a fun matchup. Zimmermann has been on a roll of late, striking out 27 batters over his four previous starts including a 12 K shutout against the Padres. Expect to see lots and lots of lively fastballs in this game.

Shark seems like he’s been scuffling a bit in has past few starts, but the numbers don’t seem much different than those at the beginning of the year. He’s posting a career-low 2.71 BB/9, and has posted 30 strikeouts in his last four starts (take that, Zimmermann!). This could be either a very quick game if someone manages to eke out a run, or a very long one if we have to wait until we run out of bullpen pitchers.

]]>http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-nationals-41-36-at-cubs-32-44.html/feed0Series Preview: Reds (37-37) at Cubs (31-42)http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-reds-37-37-at-cubs-31-42.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=series-preview-reds-37-37-at-cubs-31-42
http://obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-reds-37-37-at-cubs-31-42.html#commentsMon, 23 Jun 2014 20:07:57 +0000http://obstructedview.net/?p=15734They’re still playing baseball? I’m still coming down from last night’s World Cup game. How did the end of the game play out? h/t to GBTS, who I blatantly stole this from. The Cubs have shown signs of life since I last checked in, somehow pulling off a .500 road trip, going 10-4 against not-the-Pirates, […]]]>

They’re still playing baseball? I’m still coming down from last night’s World Cup game. How did the end of the game play out?

h/t to GBTS, who I blatantly stole this from.

The Cubs have shown signs of life since I last checked in, somehow pulling off a .500 road trip, going 10-4 against not-the-Pirates, while dropping 5 of 7 to the Pirates. Luis Valbuena has figured out how to hit a BABIP above .260 to go with his usual excellent walk rate, Castro and Rizzo continue to roar back from their disappointing 2013 seasons, the bullpen is performing well, the Cubs top draft pick is hitting the cover off the ball, and the Cubs top two prospects are playing together just a step away from the majors. I’ll just pretend that this year’s OF never existed.

Team Overviews

NL ranks listed for both team

Reds

wRC+: 89 (10th)

BSR: 1.5 (6th)

SP FIP-: 104 (8th)

RP FIP-: 108 (15th)

UZR: 20.4 (3rd)

DRS: 34 (2nd)

Run differential: +4 (6th)

Cubs

wRC+: 81 (14th)

BSR: 0.9 (9th)

SP FIP-: 86 (1st)

RP FIP-: 91 (6th)

UZR: -1.0 (8th)

DRS: -9 (14th)

Run differential: -9 (10th)

The Reds had one of the best bullpens of the past several years, but it hasn’t worked out so well for them this year. Chapman has been great since his return from being hit in the face, striking out two batters an inning on average, but the rest of the pen has had many issues. They lead the NL by a large margin in BB/9, and the Chapman’s ludicrous strikeout numbers are covering up struggles from the rest of the pen. It certainly doesn’t help that Sean Marshall is headed for a shoulder debridement either.

Pitching Probables

Simon has been the big surprise for the Reds this year, posting an ERA around 3 after two years in the pen. He’s not striking that many out (5.58 per 9), but doesn’t allow a lot of walks or hits either. It’s safe to say that this year’s performance can mostly be explained by BABIP (.243) and sequencing (82.6%), and it’s not like he’s a fly ball pitcher. He’s got ten wins though, so I guess he’s got that going for him. I’m sure Jeff Samardzija is real happy to see that on the scoreboard.

Shark has looked rockier over the past few weeks, but shut out the Marlins for six innings with eight strikeouts in his last start. The bigger news is the continued swirl of trade and extension rumors. The Cubs reportedly put out a deal that was around 5/85 that was rejected by Samardzija. Thanks, Reds! That’s probably as high as they *should* go, and Shark is right in thinking he could probably get more in a year and change. I still wouldn’t mind the Cubs opening up the checkbook a bit more, even with Arrieta’s seeming emergence, since they’re only going to hit on so many Jason Hammel types.

Of course, Bailey is the easy example to point to when arguing why the Cubs shouldn’t go higher than what they offered. But it’s a lazy argument, as Bailey’s peripherals are right in line with last year’s, he’s just had more balls drop in (and over the wall) than probably should have. Everyone can suddenly hit his plus fastball this year for some reason.

I’m definitely getting a little excited about Arrieta (TRANSFORMED!!!11!), but am tempering it a bit after looking at his 2012 numbers. He made 18 starts (24 appearances) with the O’s and posted a 8.56 K/9 and 2.75 BB/9, not far off from this year’s numbers, but was his usual inefficient, walk-prone self in his other three big league seasons. If he’s truly Transformed though, LOLORIOLES.

Latos has only made two starts this year, as he’s been dealing with an injury since spring training. IIRC Kris Bryant hit a HR off him in April that led to him being shut down for a few weeks. Is there anything he can’t do? His K rate is down so far but he’s still his usual walk-stingy self. I don’t expect him to go that deep into this game.

Too much ink has been spilled this season about Edwin Jackson’s numbers, so I won’t. They’re frustrating every way you look at them. Maybe he can set a record for the biggest ERA-FIP split in recent history.