Sunday, March 03, 2013

A slow moving low pressure system over southwest Saskatchewan is bringing an extensive area of snow across the southern Prairies from the Rockies into southeast SK. This area of snow will be spreading across SW Manitoba this evening and into the Red River valley through the evening and into midnight. Snow will become heavy at times overnight and into early Monday, with 10-15 cm of snow possible by Monday morning south and west of Winnipeg. Snow will continue Monday across southern MB before tapering off Monday night into early Tuesday. Snowfall warnings are in effect for all areas south and west of Winnipeg including Brandon, Portage La Prairie, Carman, Morden, Morris, Emerson, and Steinbach where storm totals of 15 to 25 cm are possible by Tuesday morning.

For Winnipeg, snow is expected to move in by midnight and increase in intensity overnight. About 2-5 cm of snow is possible by the morning commute, so give yourself extra time for the drive in Monday morning. Roads will be getting snow-covered and slippery, especially outside the city. Snow will continue Monday, moderate to heavy at times, with another 5-10 cm likely by the evening commute. So expect a slow commute home as well. Snow will begin to taper off Monday night into Tuesday morning, with another 2 to 5 cm possible before it ends. Storm snowfall totals of 10-15 cm are possible for Winnipeg between midnight tonight and Tuesday morning, with a risk of higher amounts if we get some stronger bands setting up over us. Snowfall warnings may be expanded to include Winnipeg if the storm tracks a little further north than currently forecast. Stay tuned on this developing winter storm system.. (Note: Winnipeg was added to snowfall warning on 5 am Monday morning update)

Keep track of snow spreading into southern MB using Radar Viewer from A Weather Moment. Consult the MB Highways website for updated information on highway conditions over southern MB. Note also that winter storm warnings are in effect for North Dakotaas well, where 20-30 cm is forecast south of the border, including Grand Forks.

Mike.. NAM is indicating about 25-30 cm for Winnipeg.. 40 cm doesn't seem likely, unless we got under a slow moving convective band that dumped on the city for several hours. I suppose it "could" happen, but chances seem remote.

NAM is definitely the most aggressive in snowfall amounts for YWG and northern RRV, taking heavier snow shield further north than most other models, which generally have Winnipeg in the 10-15 cm range. 20 cm on the high end would be more realistic for Winnipeg IMO..

3 cm new snow at my place as of 730 am. Snow has temporarily stopped here as we get a sucker hole right over the city.. with radar showing heavy snow falling just southwest of the city. Would expect things to fill in again shortly..

Did not expect this dry slot to develop over the city within the large swath of snow. Mesoscale feature that is impossible to predict even an hour ahead of time. Looks like dry hole is starting to fill in again to our southeast, so we should start snowing again here in the city within the next half hour or so. Heaviest snow still expected mainly south and west of Winnipeg..

Thanks for the report from Carman.. Looks like you guys are in the sweet spot of the storm, with the heavier bands regenerating mainly southwest of Winnipeg. Snow has stopped here in SW Winnipeg again, after a nice heavy band this morning. Strange storm for Winnipeg as we get dry slot intrusions from the east interrupting our snowfall.

I measured another 6 cm of snow since last evening, for a storm total of 19 cm here in Charleswood as of 730 am. I took several measurements, and took the more conservative amounts because there are places where it's even more. Snow depth is now 55 cm at my place, which is the deepest snow cover since I moved here in 1998.. and is likely the deepest snow cover in Winnipeg since the infamous winter/spring of 1997. Snow banks are getting crazy here.

Even crazier to our southwest. Miami MB had 50 cm yesterday, and probably picked up another 10 last night. This was a doozy of a storm...

Looks like a general 15 cm for Winnipeg.. with up to 20 cm in my end of town. So snow poll winner goes to the 5 respondents who picked 15-20 cm, with honorable mention to the 10-15 cm crowd. Well done! Most popular pick was 10-15 cm, followed closely by 5-10 cm..

A lot better than that "sunny" forecast from the GEM model just 2 days prior to the storm. Epic fail on that model so close to such a major event.

Hi Rob....I know the RFC in Chanhassen MN would love more Manitoba/Sask snow and precip data. I saw a mention for EC Cooltap what is this and is this something perhaps NWS could view or get password for??

Yes...about water equiv from the snowfall many observers have a hard time with that and thus some reports are in error. We try to catch and correct if possible before RFC gets them. That warren reports seems off...thinking 14 to 1 ratio for the most part.

COOLTAP is EC's official network of volunteer climate observers (like NWS' coop network) temperature and/or precip data are entered via a web interface, usually once or twice a day. Obs are considered official observations and entered into our climate database. A COOLTAP summary bulletin is issued twice a day, under the header CSCN22 CWEG for Prairie data, CWTO for Ontario data. Not sure if NWS has access to those bulletin headers. Let me know if you don't, and I'll see if there's another way to access that data.

BTW, just took a snow core sample this morning from my backyard... 50 cm snowpack (20") melted down to 168 mm liquid (6.6"). Sample taken using official EC snowcore tube.