Inkblots

I've seen some liberals sniping at Rand for pointing out Eric Garner would be alive today if not for New York's nanny-state cigarette tax regime. There's no more credible voice in the fight against police brutality than that of Radley Balko, so I was glad to see him push back against those critics on his blog today:

Even seemingly innocuous laws are enforced with violence

Sen. Rand Paul took some heat this week for pointing out that Eric Garner was essentially executed for selling untaxed cigarettes. I’m not sure why this is a controversial thing to say (especially since Paul also explicitly said the video itself was “horrifying”). Every law, no matter how seemingly innocuous, is enforced with the threat of violence: If you fail to follow it, the state is saying

Paul may have some durability among his supporters. This poll added five names to the potential Republican lineup, compared with an ABC/Post poll in January. As a group, possible candidates on the original, shorter list lost support when others were added. Paul didn’t.

Reality comes up to slap our "wise" foreign policy establishment in the face again. Grahamnesty's reaction is almost too rich; I literally laughed out loud when I read it:

WASHINGTON — Senator Patrick J. Leahy, chairman of the Senate subcommittee that oversees foreign aid, said Tuesday he would not support additional military aid to Egypt in the wake of mass death sentences handed out by Egyptian courts this week, adding significant pressure on the Obama administration to shift course.

For months, Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, has led a lonely effort to sever American support to one of its most stalwart allies in the Middle East after the military’s overthrow of Egypt’s elected Islamist government. That push appears to be gaining steam.
...
Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, said he would back the Obama administration’s pledge to deliver 10 Apache attack helicopters to the Egyptian military to try to bring peace to the roiling Sinai Peninsula. But he said he would not back a larger, $650 million military or economic aid package.

“I’m not ready to invest in Egypt, on the military side, on the economic side, because I don’t know what I’m investing in,” Mr. Graham said. “I am very reluctant to put military assets or American dollars in an Egypt that I think is on a road to disaster.”
...
Mr. Graham drew a distinction between Mr. Paul’s efforts to cut off aid in the early days of the Arab Spring and the upsurge of concern now.

“Rand Paul wanted to disconnect from Egypt at a time when we could really have made a difference,” Mr. Graham said. “I don’t think this validates Rand Paul’s view of the world.”

But Ames has a pretty good predictive track record. Since the event began in 1979, the candidate winning the Iowa caucus has placed first or second in the straw poll every time...
Ames does better than other indicators. Since 1979, its results have the predictive power to explain 58 percent of voting in the Iowa caucuses.

This compares favorably to the most recent Des Moines Register poll conducted before the straw poll, which explains 39 percent of caucus results.

It also does better than the average of national polls conducted in the month before Ames, which explain 34 percent of caucus results. ...

Betting markets think that Mr. Paul is the most likely candidate to win Ames. Say that

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