NOAA
RAISES THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK
Bulk of This Season's Storms Still to Come

Aug.
2, 2005 — A very active Atlantic hurricane season is underway, and with
more storms projected, NOAA today
increased the number of storms in its 2005
hurricane season outlook. NOAA expects an additional 11 to 14 tropical
storms from August through November, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes,
including three to five major hurricanes. In total, this season is likely
to yield 18 to 21 tropical storms, with nine to 11 becoming hurricanes,
including five to seven major hurricanes. (Click NOAA satellite
image for larger view of Hurricane Dennis as the storm made landfall
near Pensacola, Fla., as a Category Three hurricane on July 10, 2005.
Click here for high
resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)

"The
tropics are only going to get busier as we enter the peak of the season,"
said Brig. Gen. David L.
Johnson, USAF (Ret.), director of the NOAA
National Weather Service. "This may well be one of the most
active Atlantic hurricane seasons on record, and will be the ninth above-normal
Atlantic hurricane season in the last eleven years."

"Although
we have already seen a record-setting seven tropical storms during June
and July, much of the season's activity is still to come," said
Gerry Bell, lead meteorologist on NOAA's Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal
Outlook. The predicted high levels of activity during the remainder
of the season are consistent with NOAA's pre-season outlook issued last
spring, and are comparable to those seen during August to October of
the very active 2003 and 2004 seasons. (Click NOAA image for
larger view of 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update. Please
credit “NOAA.”)

Atmospheric
and oceanic conditions that favor an active hurricane season are now
in place, as was predicted in the pre-season outlook. "Warmer-than-normal
sea-surface temperatures and low wind shear are among the culprits behind
these stronger and more numerous storms," Bell added.

This confluence
of optimal ocean and atmosphere conditions has been known to produce
increased tropical storm activity in multi-decadal (approximately 20-30
year) cycles. Because of this, NOAA expects a continuation of above-normal
seasons for another decade or perhaps longer. NOAA's research shows
that this reoccurring cycle is the dominant climate factor that controls
Atlantic hurricane activity. Any potentially weak signal associated
with longer-term climate change appears to be a minor factor.

The
multi-decadal signal that has contributed to increased Atlantic activity
since 1995 has also produced a marked decrease in hurricanes in the
eastern Pacific hurricane region. Similar conditions also produced very
active Atlantic hurricane seasons during the 1950s and 1960s. In contrast,
the opposite phase of this signal during 1970-1994 resulted in only
three above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons in the entire 25-year
period. (Click NOAA image for larger view of the conditions
NOAA expects for the rest of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. Please
credit “NOAA.”)

Conditions
that steer hurricanes toward land are well known, but are difficult
to predict on seasonal time scales and are often related to daily weather
patterns. However, historical records indicate that an average of two
to three additional hurricanes could strike the U.S. between August
and November.

“Knowing
precisely where a hurricane will strike and at what intensity cannot
be determined even a few days in advance,” said Max Mayfield,
director of the NOAA National Hurricane
Center. Mayfield adds, “Residents and government agencies
of coastal and near-coastal regions should embrace hurricane preparedness
efforts and should be ready well before a tropical storm or hurricane
watch is posted.” (Click NOAA image for larger view of
the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. Please credit “NOAA.”)

An average
Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30,
produces 10 named storms in which six become hurricanes, including two
major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph. The most active hurricane
season was in 1933 with 21 storms, followed by 1995 with 19 storms.
The most hurricanes in a season was 12 in 1969, and the highest number
of major hurricanes was eight in 1950.

The
2005 Atlantic hurricane outlook is a joint product of scientists at
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center,
Hurricane Research Division
and National Hurricane Center.
NOAA meteorologists use a suite of sophisticated numerical models and
high-tech tools to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes. Scientists
rely on information gathered by NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Reserve
personnel who fly directly into storms in hurricane hunter aircraft;
NOAA, NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense satellites; NOAA data
buoys, weather radars and partners among the international meteorological
services. (Click NOAA image for larger view of the vertical
wind shear associated with above normal hurricane season. Please credit
“NOAA.”)

NOAA, an
agency of the U.S. Department of
Commerce, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national
safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related
events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal
and marine resources.