Tim Walz won the CD1 election by a 15 point margin over Allen Quist.
What factors accounted for that difference in vote percentages? First of
all, we need a historical perspective.

The 2008 and 2012 elections were similar for the Democrat vote versus
Republican vote in Minnesota.* In 2008 the Republican candidate lost to
Tim Walz by a difference of 30 points. This means that the Quist
campaign made up 15 points of the difference as compared to 2008. But
that still left the Quist campaign 15 points short of Tim Walz.

What factors does she cite as causing a great DFL turnout? Top of her list: those pesky amendments:

There is strong evidence that the extraordinary Democrat turn-out in
Minnesota in 2012 gave their candidates a 7 point advantage. For
example, Michele Bachmann’s polls consistently gave her an 8 point lead.
She won by 1 point.

Pre-election polls showed Romney close to even with Obama in
Minnesota. But Obama carried Minnesota with a 7 point advantage. John
Kline’s opponent received a similar bump as did Collin Peterson. Credit
Walz with 7 points based on DFL turnout.

(The Democratic turnout in Minnesota was far greater than in other
states. The DFL used the two proposed constitutional amendments as
organizing issues and as get out the vote tools. We have received
numerous reports of people going to the polls, especially college
students, just to vote against one or both of the amendments. This
resulted in a Democratic turnout in Minnesota that was far greater than
the turnout nationwide and is one of the biggest reasons so many
Minnesota Republican and conservative candidates lost their races or
fell below expectations.)

And who put those amendments on the ballot? Jeepers: the now-fired Republican majorities in both houses of the Minnesota legislature.

Brodkorb said Republicans were
concerned about firing up voters for the 2012 elections, and discussed a
variety of possible amendments before settling on a measure that would
ban same-sex marriage.

"In the context of all of these
constitutional amendments, turnout and rallying the conservative base,
rallying like-minded Democrats and others to the polls for Republicans
and for this issue, was a constant theme of discussion," Brodkorb said.

Immediately after the Primary Election, the National Republican Campaign
Committee (NRCC) promised to spend up to $1 million in CD1 to tell the
public who Walz really is. But the NRCC didn’t show up—perhaps because
subsequent polling showed Tim Walz had an approval rating of 53%, and an
incumbent with an approval above 50% is normally not considered
vulnerable. The NRCC had numerous races competing for its money and
decided to use that money elsewhere. Credit Walz with another big
advantage compared to what could have been if the NRCC had come in.

Given that Quist himself didn't fork over the $1 million of his own money that he promised CD1 endorsing conventions delegates he'd spend, Bluestem must conclude that there's a lot of that sort of thing going around.

The other big story with Quist's FEC report is that he remains barely
halfway to his campaign promise goal of raising $1 million dollars to
defeat Walz. Quist said that he would personally cover all the portions
of the $1 million not generated through fundraising. Currently, Quist
has raised $568,591 total for the campaign.

Quist continues to
insist big funds from Republican donors and other sources will
materialize before election day to cover the remainder. But, Quist said
last week that more funds would be contributed for October reporting.
Additionally, with less than 10 days before the election, Quist will
have effectively no time to spend the roughly $500,000 still needed if
the big donors do emerge.

Some more money trickled in after that report, but nothing like what Quist had promised.

Mrs. Quist's final factor is the Republican surge that never happened. If only motivation, money, and urban legends had cut Allen's way, her husband would be congressman now instead of Tim Walz, who totally had luck on his side.

And those meddling kids!

Cartoons by Ken Avidor: Allen Quist rides off into the sunset; Julie Quist as The Dutchess and friends.