Russia is determined to bomb Syrian rebels into submission by a massive aerial campaign, comparable to the American 2003 “shock and awe” offensive over Baghdad. Only this time, it is Russia which is invading Syria. Tuesday, Feb. 2, saw a wave of air strikes, for which heavy Tupolev Tu-22M strategic bombers flew in from their base in Russia. President Vladimir is not deterred by the hundreds of civilian casualties caused in these raids, nor by rebel groups’ threat to walk out of the Geneva conference because he knows Barack Obama is behind him.

The northern Syria battlefield close to the Turkish border will have a greater impact on determining Syria’s future than any Security Council resolution. A very large mixed bag of combatants consists of Russia, the Kurdish YPG militia, most of the important rebel groups - including radical Sunni organizations tied to Al Qaeda, such as the Nusra Front and Ahram al-Sham - not to mention Iran and Shiite Hizballah and the jihadist Islamic State. So long as no one gains the upper hand, there will be progress in the talks starting next month for ending the war.

The rising level of Palestinian terrorism must be attributed largely to the 19 West Bank refugee camps falling into the hands of local armed militias run by a mix of terrorists, crime mobs and arms racketeers, who command big arsenals of illegal weapons, debkafile reports. The close to quarter of-a-million Palestinians living in those camps have veered out of the control of Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas and its security services. The militias’ sway is spilling over into the big Palestinian towns and the Palestinian neighborhoods of E. Jerusalem.

Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas plans to derail talks with Israel straight after the second batch of jailed Palestinians are freed next week. He is also unraveling longstanding counter-terrorism security cooperation with Israel by reviving the “revolving door” for detainees. Secretary of State John Kerry hopes to head off the crisis by cajoling Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, when they meet in Rome Wednesday, Oct. 23, to make Abbas an offer he can’t refuse of sovereign Israel land, namely one-third of Dead Sea territory. .

The Obama letters to Netanyahu and Abbas are key to the opening of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians as per Kerry’s initiative. He has set up four mechanisms for controlling every aspect of the talks.

US Secretary John Kerry announced Friday July 19 the resumption of Israeli-Palestinian talks in Washington as soon as next week. In this exclusive report, debkafile discloses for the first time that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas agreed the talks would seek an interim peace accord, creating a Palestinian state on broad areas of the West Bank from which Israeli would withdraw, subject to security arrangements. Israel accepted a partial settlement freeze. The Palestinians dropped their 1967 borders pre-condition for the talks.

US Secretary of State John Kerry wound up his fifth peace shuttle trip for reviving Israel-Palestinian peace talks Sunday, June 30, when Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas turned down the US blueprint for both sides to forego preconditions and return straightaway to the long-stalled peace talks. Abbas reverted to his three-point ultimatum: Israel must first accept 1967 borders as the basis for negotiations, release Palestinians jailed more than 20 years and freeze West Bank and Jerusalem construction. The Secretary, who left Ramallah empty-handed, says he’ll be back in a few weeks.

debkafile’s exclusive sources reveal that Secretary of State John Kerry wants Israel to make strategic and national concessions for buying Palestinian consent to sit down and talk – such as a Palestinian international airport in Jericho and withdrawal from the Dead Sea’s northern coast. Mahmoud Abbas is off the hook.

US Secretary of State John Kerry has a novel plan for peace talks on two simultaneous tracks – Israel versus the Palestinians and, for the first time in its history, Israel facing the Arab League, debkafilereports exclusively. After obtaining Arab approval for “minor border amendments,” Kerry says more work remains to be done before talks.

John Kerry faces more obstacles than realistic prospects for his many small steps toward reviving the Middle East peace process and bring Hamas as well as Abu Mazen to the negotiating table. For this he is counting on help from the Turkish prime minister and Qatari emir.

US President Barack Obama hauled Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas over the coals when they talked by phone Monday, March 19. He coldly demanded that the Palestinians return without further delay to the talks in the Jordanian capital of Amman which they quit abruptly after several rounds. Their conversation ended on a harsh note when Abbas refused to return to negotiations.
Monday, Palestinian ex-prime minister Ahmad Qurai (Abu Ala) proclaimed the death of the two-state solution in an Al Quds article.

Away from the cameras focusing on the African Union peacemaking delegation in Tripoli Sunday, April 10 headed by South African President Jacob Zuma, debkafile's exclusive intelligence sources disclose German Chancellor Angela Merkel's discreet but key role in the multinational thrust to broker an end to the Libyan war. Her emissary arrived quietly in the Libyan capital with NATO consent. After refusing to join the war effort against Qaddafi, she now spearheads the bid to end it.

The first take of the "Palestine Papers run Sunday night, Jan. 23, appearing on the Qatar-owned Arabic Al-Jazeera TV network is a transparent attempt to discredit Palestinian Authority leaders, especially Mahmoud Abbas and Saab Erekat, as ready to sell their people out by exaggerated concessions to Israel - especially on Jerusalem and Temple Mount. Both dismiss the "papers" as a pack of half-truths and distortions.

debkafile reveals they were sold to the TV network by a disgruntled Palestinian staffer fired from the PA's NFU-Negotiating Support Team.

President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu ended a meeting which both called "excellent" at the White House Tuesday July 6. In a carefully-worded comment, the US president indicated he would continue to respect Israel's nuclear stance and ambiguity about its reported arsenal. He also avoided pressing Israel on extending its 10-month freeze on settlement and Jerusalem construction which expires Sept. 26, but rather voiced the hope that face-to-face Israel-Palestinian talks could go forward by September.

The Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas made US presidential envoy George Mitchell go and find him in Amman, only to lay down a fresh prohibitive condition for indirect peace talks to begin: Israel must first open its prison doors to free 2,000 Palestinian terrorists, twice the number demanded by Hamas for handing over kidnapped soldier Gilead Shalilt. And so another Mitchell mission runs aground.