While Iraq Burns

In the face of a violent offensive by Sunni militants, Iraq’s future as a unified state is becoming less and less likely. As the Sunni militants take hold of a large swath of northwest Iraq, the Kurds, who operate a semiautonomous province in northeast Iraq, are edging toward independence, leaving Shiites controlling Baghdad and regions in the south. Yet Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki seems to have no interest in finding a new way forward from a catastrophe his policies ignited.

In Baghdad this week, Secretary of State John Kerry pressed Mr. Maliki, who represents the Shiite majority, to form a national unity government that would share power more equitably among the Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish groups. That is perhaps the only way to forestall complete division of the country and even greater violence as the insurgents drive toward Baghdad.

Instead, Mr. Maliki has refused to make political concessions demanded by Sunnis and Kurds. His recalcitrance has raised concerns even among Shiites, some of whom are working with the Sunnis and Kurds to replace him. Over eight years, Mr. Maliki’s arrests of Sunni opponents and his refusal to fully include them and the Kurds in Iraq’s political life have fueled resentments that have allowed extremists to flourish.

On Wednesday, an offshoot of Al Qaeda known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, which has taken over the northwest region, attacked one of Iraq’s largest air bases and was heading toward the Haditha Dam. The group is also fighting in Syria, with the aim of creating a caliphate straddling the two countries.

Mr. Maliki promised Mr. Kerry that next week Parliament would begin choosing a new government, based on the April 30 election results that gave his State of Law party the most seats. American and other Western officials have already indicated that they would prefer to see Mr. Maliki step down as prime minister. Meanwhile, the Kurds, who have run their own enclave since 1991 and have made it Iraq’s most prosperous region, now see an opportunity to establish an independent Kurdistan.

The chaos of the militants’ offensive gave the Kurds, backed by their pesh merga security forces, an opening on June 12 to seize the disputed city of Kirkuk, which has oil. It also prompted Masoud Barzani, the Kurdish leader, to revive the idea of independence, a move Mr. Kerry asked him to reconsider, with little apparent success.

For now, Mr. Kerry and other Western officials are still stressing the importance of preserving a unified Iraq. But no one should have any illusions. After three years of war, Syria has basically split along sectarian lines, and some experts see a similar future for Iraq, where the Iraqi Army so far has been incapable of protecting the country and is considered unlikely to dislodge ISIS.

Although President Obama has wisely ruled out a return of American ground troops, he has deployed 300 advisers (plus private security guards to protect them) to help the Iraqi Army and to develop targets for potential military strikes against the militants. Obama administration officials have said any strikes will depend on factors like support from Iraq’s political leaders and intelligence that identifies precise ISIS targets. But military advice and support won’t accomplish much if Mr. Maliki and other Iraqi leaders refuse to join together to save their state.