I only started blogging about my predictions for literary award longlists relatively recently. Three of my Man Booker Prize predictions last year made it on to the longlist of 13 titles, and two of them also made the final six, which I thought was a pretty good success rate considering the vast number of eligible books.

This year’s longlist is due to be announced on Thursday 27th July and I have once again been thinking about predictions in terms of likely possibilities and my personal preferences. I have read some brilliant books over the past year which I believe very much deserve to be recognised but I think other titles may have a better chance of being longlisted. Some of the possibilities are books I haven’t read yet and as ever, I also have no knowledge of which books have actually been submitted for consideration.

The Man Booker Prize often has some overlap with the Baileys Women’s Prize for Fiction longlist and this year’s winner The Power by Naomi Alderman could be among those listed again. Other more experimental titles have recently gained recognition through literary awards and I think Solar Bones by Mike McCormack which won the Goldsmiths Prize last year or The Lesser Bohemians by Eimear McBride which was shortlisted for the same award could be in with a chance too.

Recent novels by authors who have previously been shortlisted for the Man Booker Prize include Autumn by Ali Smith and Swing Time by Zadie Smith and I would be pleased to see either of these on the longlist. However, I think Days Without End by Sebastian Barry is more likely to enjoy further success following its Costa Book of the Year win in January. Described as a “post-post-apocalyptic novel” H(A)PPY by Nicola Barker is also eligible as is The Ministry of Utmost Happiness by Arundhati Roy which is the Man Booker Prize-winning author’s long-awaited follow-up to The God of Small Things and has received strong reviews.

Books published up until 30th September 2017 in the UK are eligible for this year’s prize meaning that some titles are not yet available to buy. I have just finished reading a review copy of The Burning Girl by Claire Messud which is as compelling and astutely written as her previous novel The Woman Upstairs and will be published at the end of August.

The possibility of discovering brilliant new books and authors is why I continue to follow literary award longlists with interest, so predictions of popular bestsellers aside, I hope there are plenty of little-known gems from small independent presses on the longlist such as His Bloody Project by Graeme Macrae Burnet which ended up being one of my favourite books of 2016. All eyes will inevitably be on the recent offerings of Oneworld Publications following its two successive wins for Marlon James and Paul Beatty and I think Here Comes The Sun by Nicole Dennis-Benn, a dark debut novel set in Jamaica, could be this year’s one to watch.

Do you agree with my predictions? Which books would you like to see on the Man Booker Prize longlist this year?

Oh, I’d love to see how well you did with the predictions this year. I recently bought Zadie Smith’s Swing Time, so it’d be great if that was on the list. And I’d also love to see some books that I hadn’t heard about before.

I thoroughly enjoyed your comments and insights. As for your statement, “I also have no knowledge of which books have actually been submitted for consideration.” I suggest googling “Man Booker 2017 goodreads” which list almost 200 “contenders.” Although the accuracy of this list is questionable, it is nevertheless very interesting. Other possibilities I foresee: The Underground Railroad, A Sport of Kings and No One Can Pronounce My Name.

Yes I’ve seen the Goodreads list – I think it’s mostly accurate in terms of which books are eligible and it’s likely that most have been submitted but I can’t know for sure. I haven’t read The Underground Railroad but agree that it’s a strong possibility.

The Sport of Kings was published in May of 2016 and therefore is not a contender. I’d read it shortly before last year’s longlist was announced and was surprised it wasn’t on there. I thought it had Man Booker potential.

I have spent the first half of this year re-reading classics, for which one could blame Bob Dylan’s Nobel acceptance speech, and also knitting, so I am completely out of touch. Might The Dark Flood Rides by Margaret Drabble be eligible? Yes, I agree Sebastian Barry is a strong contender. I shall be watching the publication of the longlist with eagerness. I imagine it will have a lot of novels I have not read yet, and I shall enjoy sharing my views.

The Drabble is an interesting book. It follows the life and friends on one woman, Fran, who is (as it happens) the same age as me, as she contemplates ageing and dying; there are several strands which are carried through her various friends and her children and it is both topical, contemplative and insightful. I do rather deplore the endless use of extra adjectives for (nearly) everything…I shall blog about it in more detail soon.

Looking forward to the thriving discussions this will provoke and the recommendations, I have Swing Time to read and I’m in the middle of The Power now, otherwise I’ll wait and pick a few from the recommendations,thanks for sharing your favourite reads so far!

Thanks for this – I can never keep track of which are eligible! I thought Swing Time was absolutely brilliant, and it seems to have been oddly overlooked for prizes so far, so I really hope to see that on the list. (I was less impressed by Autumn.) Days Without End has its issues, but would also be a worthy longlistee IMO.

‘The possibility of discovering brilliant new books and authors is why I continue to follow literary award longlists with interest’ – I only had this conversation today at work with a customer who ended up purchasing His Bloody Project on my recommendation. I would never have read HPB if not for the shortlist nomination – the cover along puts me off, but it sounds like a crime novel, when it’s not really that. Well, it is it, but it’s so much more and it has stayed with me ever since.

Like you, I’m hoping there will be some novels on the list which haven’t been on my radar at all so I’ll be able to discover some exciting books I wouldn’t have read otherwise. I think both of the debuts you mention have a strong possibility though I’ve not read them yet. I don’t think The Lesser Bohemians is eligible because it was published before the date when entries were accepted for this year’s prize. I’m really hoping to see Rachel Seiffert’s novel A Boy in Winter and A Book of American Martyrs by Joyce Carol Oates on the list too!

Thanks for pointing out my error re The Lesser Bohemians – for some reason I thought it was published in October last year rather than September. Looks like a good list overall and we both did well with our predictions!

Well done! Quite a few hits. I am sorry not to see Margaret Drabble, but delighted to find Kamila Shamsie on the list. For once the only one I have read is the Sebastian Barry. Will be up at Primrose Hill Bookshop to collect as many as are available and will start blogging on them soon. Not many surprises though, is that a pity?

Yes, I’m surprised by how many I picked out – I doubt that will happen again any time soon! The only one I hadn’t heard of at all is Elmet, and yes I would have liked to see maybe two or three others that were completely new to me on there…

Ok, wow … this was pretty good. Can’t wait to see who is short listed. I still want to read Lincoln and the Bardo, Autumn and Solar Bones. I just finished Exit West and although I really enjoyed it I’m not sure it will win. Good possibility for short list though. I hope so.