Welcome to the Week 14 installment of our NFL Survivor contest advice column. We apply a data-driven strategy to get an edge in Survivor pools, using analysis based on NFL predictions from our algorithmic Team Rankings models, public picking trends, future team schedules, and other data. This article presents our preliminary Survivor pick of the week; we publish our final, official pick on Fridays.

Well, it had to end sometime.

Since the start of the 2011 season, we made it through a run of 29 straight regular season weeks without a Survivor loss. Even taking solid favorites each week, the odds of that are pretty slim.

Taking a quick glance back at the last five weeks, the average TR win odds for our Survivor picks has been 73%. If we pretend that was our chance of being right in each of the previous 29 weeks, then our chance of actually making it through unscathed was 0.01% … that’s 1 in 10,000. We’ll take it.

Unfortunately, our Luck finally ran out (sorry, couldn’t resist), as Andrew tossed a game-winning TD with no time left on the clock to complete a 12-point 4th-quarter comeback by the Colts, handing both the Lions and our Survivor column a loss. If you watched the Lions’ strategy in the fourth quarter, you probably have some serious questions for Coach Schwartz, but alas, that’s just how it goes sometimes. I’m sure we’ve been on the other side of this coin as well at some point during The Streak, so there’s no point in moaning about it.

At least we can take solace in the fact that we weren’t alone. Week 13’s most popular pick, the San Francisco 49ers, fell to the Rams, knocking out roughly a quarter of Yahoo! contestants. The Ravens and Bears also were upset, knocking out another 12% between the two of them. Altogether, over 40% of the public was eliminated.

We know not all of you have followed our official picks each week, particularly last week when we faced such a close call. So we’ll continue to make Survivor picks for the rest of the year, even though our chance at a second straight perfect season is busted.

Let’s get to it.

Week 14 NFL Survivor Decision Factors

This is the heart of our column, the table showing the factors that influence our weekly Survivor pick decision. For every team, here are the three questions we ask ourselves (and the data in our table that helps us answer them):

3. Should I save this team for later? (Future Value: a quick rating created by giving 1 point for a future game that’s among the safest of the week, and a half a point for a game that seems borderline playable, with only partial credit for games in Week 16 or 17 when teams may be resting players. Based on averaging projections from our NFL Survivor Tool [which uses data from only this season] and our NFL Season Projections [which incorporates our preseason team projections].)

Teams are listed in order of how attractive we think they are as a choice this week. They’re also separated into rough tiers. If two teams are in the same tier, you may want to choose among them based on which pros and cons are more important to your particular situation.

Weighing the Options

Please note that the discussion below is designed for people in large pools. In pools with under 20 people left, where your pick actually changes the pool pick rates to a significant degree, please see the “Advice For Smaller Survivor Pools” section at the end of this article that provides quick strategy tips for smaller pools.

San Francisco 49ers (vs. Miami Dolphins) — The ‘Niners, Broncos, and Seahawks are all basically even in terms of safety, significantly ahead of the rest of the pack. Of those three, San Francisco is clearly the best choice, as the Seahawks are way too popular, and the Broncos have more future value. The 49ers do have an easy matchup in Week 17, but we’re heavily discounting that, as they might have their playoff seed locked in by then, which would mean they could rest starters. (Then again, while Stanford’s coach, Harbaugh was the guy still going for 2-point conversions up something like 45 points on USC, so who knows how he’ll treat Week 17…)

Denver Broncos (at Oakland Raiders) — While Denver is about as safe as the 49ers, they have more future value, and are an option in both Week 16 and Week 17. In our situation, specifically, they appear to be far and away our best choice in Week 16. The Broncos are a decent pick, but there is value in saving them for later, and there are reasonable alternatives available.

Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona Cardinals) — The Seahawks are a huge favorite, but over 50% of the public is picking them. With so many other options available this week, we recommend avoiding the crowd. STAY AWAY from the Seahawks and root for an upset.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles) — Tampa Bay is a bit riskier than any of the above three, but they are the safest out of all the teams with no future value. As such, the Buccaneers are a good pick for anybody that has slim pickings over the next few weeks.

Cleveland Browns (vs. Kansas City Chiefs) — The Browns are the poor man’s Buccaneers. They are another few percent riskier, but also have no future value. Plus, they are even less popular. Cleveland is another good pick for those needing to conserve future value.

Green Bay Packers (vs. Detroit Lions) — The Packers may be a hair safer than the Browns, but they look like a decent option in Week 16, which could come in handy for a lot people. If you’ve got the Packers and another of the above two teams available, we’d prefer to save the Packers, given the other similar options this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. San Diego Chargers) — There is only one major sportsbook with a money line out for this game, and our model odds may not be as accurate as usual, given the questions at the quarterback position for Pittsburgh. By Sunday morning, the Steelers may look like a very good pick, but for now there is enough uncertainty that we’d be cautious about choosing the Steelers. Still, if all you’ve got in the way of alternatives is a team like Atlanta or Buffalo, it’s probably worth rolling the dice with Pittsburgh.

Indianapolis Colts (vs. Tennessee Titans) — The Colts are another step down in safety from all of the above teams. Hopefully you don’t have to reach this far down the list to find a team. If you do, don’t worry about the 6% public pick rate. Their lack of future value makes them a better choice than the Giants, but both are riskier than needed, given the other options this week.

New York Giants (vs. New Orleans Saints) — As mentioned above, the Giants have some future value; they look like they could be the blog choice in Week 17. Hopefully you have a safer option available, so you can save the Giants for later.

Atlanta Falcons (at Carolina Panthers) — The Falcons appear to be the best of the junk picks this week, if you define “junk” as any team with a money line under -200. They’re clearly very risky, and are only an option if you’re really desperate.

New England Patriots (vs. Houston Texans) — The Patriots are about as safe as Atlanta, but have tons of future value, so STAY AWAY.

[Quick programming note: we’re going to keep making picks as if we had survived to this point. So for our purposes here, we’ve used Detroit already, and still have Denver available.]

We’re having a little bit of déjà vu. Like last week, our best options are to either burn the Broncos now, or save them for later and take a riskier team with no future value (Cleveland). And, like we ultimately did last week, we’re going to go with the riskier team.

Here are the projected paths for each choice:

14 CLE (vs KC), 15 MIA (vs JAC), 16 DEN (vs CLE), 17 NYG (vs PHI)

14 DEN (@ OAK), 15 MIA (vs JAC), 16 CAR (vs OAK), 17 NYG (vs PHI)

And, side note, here is what your projected path probably looks like if you took Denver last week:

14 CLE (vs KC), 15 MIA (vs JAC), 16 CAR (vs OAK), 17 NYG (vs PHI)

The drop in win odds from Denver to Cleveland this week is similar to the projected drop in safety from Denver to Carolina in Week 16. However, we expect Carolina to be more popular in Week 16 than Cleveland is now, and that’s enough to nudge us in the direction of saving Denver. So, our preliminary Week 14 Survivor pick is the Cleveland Browns over the Kansas City Chiefs.

However, if there is any chance your pool won’t last until Week 16, we would recommend taking Denver now. There is no point in saving the Broncos if Week 16 may not even matter in your pool.

Advice For Smaller Survivor Pools

Remember, all the discussion above is designed for large pools, where future value is still very important. Many of you are probably in pools with only a few people left. It’s important to remember that in small pools, the correct strategy can change considerably. Here’s a refresher on key three points about Survivor end-game tactics:

It’s less likely that your opponents’ picks will closely mimic the national public picking averages.

Future value means less.

Resist the urge to play overly conservative just because you’re close to winning.

Pools With 9-20 People — At this point, it seems likely that many pools of this size will last the rest of the year. So the strategy here is basically to follow the order outlined in the main data table, and the tips covered in the pick discussion above. The one caveat is that your pool’s picks may be quite different than the public, so if one team projects to be much more or less popular than in the general public, you’ll want to adjust your ranking of them accordingly.

Pools With 3-8 People — If you’re in a very small pool, where you can take some rough guesses about who your opponents will choose, all bets are off. Our picks are made based on the assumption that these public pick percentages roughly match the pick rates in your pool, and that won’t be true for your pool. In very small pools this week, the least popular out of the 49ers, Seahawks, or Buccaneers is probably your best option, as those three teams are in the safest couple tiers, plus have less future value than the Broncos or Packers. If you’ve got none of the above available, then working your way down from safest to riskiest (by money line) and taking the first unpopular team (only 1 or 0 people picking them) may work.

Head-to-Head Pools — Strategy totally changes here again, as the pick percentages will always be 50% or 100%. It’s impossible for you to pick an unpopular team, because you are half the pool. And future value means very little, as the pool may be over this week. In those cases, safety becomes the number one priority. So in head-to-head pools, we generally recommend taking the biggest favorite you have available, with future value only playing a role win there are multiple good options. This week, the Seahawks clearly have the best combo of safety and future value, so they are the ideal pick. If you don’t have them available, San Francisco is the next most attractive, and then either Denver or Tampa Bay, depending on whether you think you’ll need to use the Broncos in Week 16.

There is one thing to keep in mind here. If you’re trying to decide between two teams that are roughly equally risky, you may want to consider which teams your opponent has left. If he looks like he may have the upper hand in future weeks, it’s wise to try to pick a different team than him now. You’d be hoping to win or lose this week (with equal chances of both), rather than waiting for the future (where he has the advantage). On the other hand, if you have the upper hand in the coming weeks, you should try to pick the same team as him, so he doesn’t get the chance to win now, and must fight against the odds later.

As always, feel free to ask questions about your specific situation in the comments section. However, please note that the volume has gotten high enough that we can’t commit to giving everyone a detailed answer. But we’re doing our best and can make it work if we all follow a few guidelines:

First, please read the “Advice For Smaller Pools” section and see if that answers your question.

A lot can change between now and Friday, when we publish our finalized pick. So if your pick isn’t due until Friday or the weekend, please hold off asking questions until Friday.

If you do need advice now, and you’re in a small pool, be sure to include information about pool size, who you have available, and who you think your opponents will choose, as those are the key factors in small pools.

If you’re in a large pool, please include info on why you think your pool is different than the generic Yahoo! and OFP pools.

If you liked this post, please share it. Thank you!

TRD

I never did use TB earlier. Based on what I’m reading, they have no future value so I’m better off using them now instead of Cleveland. Correct?

Tbone

“29 in a row ain’t bad” hell… THAT”S DAMN GREAT!!!

http://twitter.com/ajB_real AJB

Curious as to why, with both having 0.0 future value, and with Tampa having higher spread/ML/TR odds, you went with the Browns. Just the projected higher pick percentage? Thanks.

MakaveliTheDon

I had planned to take SEA this wk, MIA next wk, and TBAY in week 16 at home vs the Rams. I don’t know why you say they have no future value. In the Team Rankings projections the game against the Rams has higher win odds than the game against the Eagles. I don’t have DEN left and don’t want to take CAR in week 16 as I feel that TBAY week 16 home vs Rams is a much safer choice. Then in week 17 I like to take PITT at home vs the browns (especially if they need to win to make the playoffs and Big Ben is back) or the NO Saints are a good option as well home vs CAR. Week 17 has a lot of decent choices outside the top teams in the league. David, what are your opinions here?
I don’t want to take TBAY this week as I’d like to have them as a option in week 16 so as not to be tied to CAR for sure. I could take SEA (highest win odds are this week vs possibly the worst team in the league currently) or I could take CLEV, PITT, INDY out of your Tier 1 or Tier 2 options listed. I have been leaning SEA all week but just read what you wrote. What’s your opinion? 17 people left in my pool, which will probably go to week 17.

Derrick James

Excellent..choices..but if I have teams like Denver /Houston/Giants/ Wash and Seattle would you save Denver this week….it scares me going down the road , what teams that are in the palyoffs may start to rest starters..so really, can you save a team like Denver for week 16..you da man..thanks for the Dallas advice last week,,even though I cursed Dallas all game..man can they stop a 5th grade team…bad defence

Jack Straw

Hi Dave – thanks, as always for the great analysis. A once large pool is now down to 5 participants. I have used the following:NE, SF, CHI, BAL, MIN, ATL, OAK, GB, PIT, HOU, NO, CIN, DAL. In reviewing the tiers – I am the only one with DEN available (but do like them for week 16 or 17, if I can save them), 0 have SF available, all 5 have TB available, 4 have SEA available, 5 have CLE, 1 had PIT, 0 have GB, all 5 have INDY, 0 have ATL, and 2 (myself included) have NYG available. It seems like there are a wide variety of options that the other 4 teams could make this week based on the availability. I too am hesitant about the popularity of SEA (and also may want to use them instead of MIA in week 15 on the road in Toronto, as all teams have MIA available too). Thoughts based on this distribution, if TB is the way to go this week? I was surprised to see INDY so far down on your list, but look forward to your feedback.

Tyson

He used TB already.

cybergolf1

Looking for opinions for this week on INDY/PITT/CLEV or even TB as the choices I have that are viable. Thanks!!!

Manny

Dave,

Thanks for all the help throughout the season. I have 3 options this week. Denver, Seattle, and Tampa. Looking at my pool there are 23 left with 18 having Seattle and 18 having Tampa (I’m included in this count). 6 teams have the 49ers available and only 1 other team has Denver available. Should I stick to Tampa when there is a chance that people pick Tampa as much as Seattle? Also, I might be overthinking just a bit but if NE wins out and Denver loses to Baltimore next week (not sure how likely this is), that would mean that Denver’s week 16 is useless and they can start resting starters.

My projected path:

Tampa wk 14, Miami wk 15, GB wk 16, and Denver or Seattle wk 17

or

Seattle wk 14, Miami wk 15, GB wk 16, and Denver wk 17.

Also wanted to know since the pot is about $40k ($1700 a person) and I bought in for $100 is it smart to start hedging my picks?

Doug-E-Doug

Hey Guys,

So starting this week and continuing through Week 17 we now have to pick TWO teams correctly. I have already used both of the top tier teams. Was originally thinking about the Colts and Seahawks, but like the Browns as well. Between those three, which would be the best combo for Week 14?

Just an FYI – 186 teams left, 24 have used Colts, 29 have used Seahawks, and only 1 has used the Browns.

Thanks!!!

Eddie Money

I’m torn between Cleveland and Denver this week. Based on your
analysis, the main reason to go with Cleveland is Denver’s future value
in Week 16. I was looking at Washington (at Philly), Carolina (vs. OAK)
and Indy (at KC) as possible picks for that week. I guess it’s a
matter of which is the larger gamble – picking Cleveland this week or
one of those teams in Week 16. Granted odds can change, but your TR
odds currently have Washington at 75% against the Eagles in Week16,
while Cleveland is 69% this week against KC. Wouldn’t that suggest that
using Denver this week makes more sense? Thanks again for your advice.

in it to win it

Just wanted to thank you for your advice! You recommended last week that I go ahead an play Denver. My head to head opponent had played them already and I assumed that would go with Detroit. You said to play Denver and hope for an upset … you were dead on! I am sad its over but I look forward to next year and thank you again!

in it to win it

Excuse my typos!!

John

I’m with you and thinking SEA regardless of their popularity and thinking MIA, TB and Pitt in week 17.

AMannix

Hey Dave 6 left in my pool. I’m the only one with Den left. I have used HOUNYGCHIGBSFTBMINNESEABALATLCINDALWould you suggest because I am the only one with DEN left using them now, or taking the risk with someone like CLE, and saving DEN still till week 16?

Frank_Elways

Hi David. Tough loss on Detroit. I’m in a small (<8) pool currently in double picks. If more than one finishes, we go to the playoffs with clean slates. One guy has clearly better bath through the season, but I'm the only one with two teams left and both teams have reasonably solid picks for the rest of the season, just not as good as the first guy by a little. Should I stop looking at pick percentages all together and try to make it to the post season where his advantage will be erased, while I still have mine? Seems like taking unnecessary win percentage hits by taking Cleveland and hoping Seattle loses doesn't gain as much EV as if I can make it to the Playoffs with two teams.

Also, if I'm just trying to survive with both teams, am I correct in thinking that I should

not worry about duplicating my picks between my two teams? If my whole strategy is to get both teams to the promised land by picking the most likely teams to win, then diversity be damned, I just pick the best team twice. I know that my odds of being knocked out are higher, but to keep my advantage in the playoffs, it seems like the right way to go. What do you think?

Frank_Elways

The chart is in order of who David thinks you should pick. Or do you want handicapping advice?

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yep.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

What Tyson said.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I’ll stick with what I wrote:

“In very small pools this week, the least popular out of the 49ers, Seahawks, or Buccaneers is probably your best option” … that would be TB. Though SEA may be OK here, too.

Evan

hey Dave, great work all season and thanks for continuing on after the lose as I really enjoy your articles.

with that said there are only 14 left in my big money pool now. I have a feeling most if not all the guys will take Seat this week. Sadly we already used them and probably better to not take them either way and hope for a miracle upset. So we have 3 picks on our radar with Clev and Indy leading the pack just ahead of TB. We are torn between clev and Indy right now and don’t l TB. Clev has been playing well at home and their defense is solid. Indy is flying high after last week’s game but is a let down now in order?

what do you suggest?

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, true, TB in Week 16 is nearly as safe as CAR, per various sources…
————————————————-
TB:

-6 line, which equates to something like 71%http://www.survivorgrid.com/

——————————–
So they seem roughly the same, edge to CAR on balance.

No way I would take SEA over TB, given the popularity. You see my opinion on the rest in the table.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

See post and table.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Looks like you have a couple other options in Week 16, so I’d go ahead and use Denver now.

TRD

Awesome, many thanks! And thanks for this past year, I’m doing well in my pool largely because of you.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

So your options boil down to:

14: TB / 17: DEN/SEA
or

14: SEA / 17: DEN

The first option is the better choice for this week due to SEA’s popularity AND leaves you with more options in Week 17. Seems pretty clear that TB is the way to go if you’re trying to maximize your expected value.

However, if you’re asking about hedging, you’re not trying to maximize expected value. … So, not sure what to tell you. I don’t hedge, so I don’t have any insights there.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Picking 2 each week means 1) future value is more important, and 2) avoiding popular teams is less important.

So, in this case I think CLE is definitely one of your two picks. For the other, I actually lean SEA, despite the popularity. Because many people picking SEA will be eliminated by their SECOND choice, an upset of Seattle becomes less marginally beneficial to you, so it’s not so bad to pick them. Which means opting for their higher safety makes sense.

Other question is do you think the Seahawks or Bucs or Broncos will win by more points this week? DEN has the highest TR win %, so I’m assuming you will say DEN, but I wanted to ask.

Main week that really concerns me is week 15, though there’s nothing I can do except for likely pick 2 small favorites that week and hope they win. If I get to week 16, I think I have a good shot at winning the pool that week. Any comments on the schedule above? I used the highest TR % teams each week from the teams I have remaining. Thanks a lot for your site and comments.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I think since you have a few possible options that week, and it’s basically a toss up anyway, and your gut would make you happier with a DEN pick, I’d go DEN.

Al

I’m in a very small pool (4 people). I’m the only one that have the Broncos. Everyone has Seattle (including me). I was going to burn the broncos this week, but would a smarter approach for me be to take Seattle this week (i.e. go with the crowd), so that I can save the broncos for week 16 (when everyone is taking riskier picks and its the 2nd to last week)?

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

With 6 left you may not make it to 16, so I’d go DEN.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Hmm, interesting.

First, yes, if you can erase an advantage by surviving, it does make just picking to survive more attractive.

And on the duplicating picks front, that does seem to make sense also. Getting to the postseason with one team is not nearly as valuable, so doubling up may make sense as it increases your chances of 2 OR 0 making it to the end.

I would double up. And since you’re doubling up, any pick is already 25% of the pool, so it’s going to be tough to avoid “popular” teams. So I’d focuse mainly on future value and current win odds.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Thanks for the kind words, but I’m not handicapping here. You can see the money lines and win odds as of when I posted in the table above, and you can see my preferred order in the table.

Doug-E-Doug

Thanks David! Really appreciate the insight!

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

That’s a reasonable approach. If you have the future advantage, it’s OK to just tread water this week.

Craig

Hey Dave,

9 left in a pool that started week 4. I’ve picked BAL/Min/ATL/Chi/SF/GB/Ind/Hou/Cin/Dal/

My projected path the rest of the way looks like this:

Wk 14: Den
Wk 15: Miami or Wash
Wk 16: NE
Wk 17: NYG or Sea

For this week, seeing there’s a few options, am I better off saving Denver for Week 17 and take either Tampa or Cleveland this week, or seeing that only 1 other person has Denver left, roll with them and hope for upsets (no one has picked Sea, 1 other has picked Tampa, and 2 still have SF left)? My gut says to stick with Denver cause I still have New England left, but thought I’d get a little advice on going forward.

Frank_Elways

Kind of takes the fun out of it for the next few weeks though.

ML

Dave – Pretty sure I was going with TB until I read this: “if there is any chance your pool won’t last until Week 16, we would recommend taking Denver now.” So here’s my situation…
9 players left in our “three-strikes” pool. Only 1 with a single strike, the rest (me included) have two. I have Den and TB still available. Only two others have Den left (but not the guy with 1-strike). Everyone has TB and Clev available. 7 have Seattle (including Mr. 1-strike).
I guess theoretically, all of us 2-strikers could lose this week or next and the pool is over, but how realistic is that? Do I take Den now since I know Mr. 1-strike can’t, or go with TB and hope he takes the “popular” Seattle pick or a different team altogether. Thanks!

Dave T.

Hey David:

I’m one of 11 left in my pool and we’re now obligated to pick 2 teams. It’s a double-elimination pool, and I already have one loss (there is only one team that hasn’t had a strike yet).

I used both the top tier choices but still have Cleveland, Denver, Pittsburgh, and Indy left. 8 of the 11 people left have used Denver and/or Pittsburgh.

How would your approach change, if at all, with the 2-team requirement? Thanks!

Jon

Hi David – great run and thanks for the advice along the way. I’m 1 of 2 left in my pool. My opponent has already burned Denver but has Sea and SFO available and will likely play one of those teams. I have Den available but have burned SFO, Sea and Tampa. Do I play Denver now or go with Clev and save Den knowing he will have Sea or SFO for later? Thanks in advance.

E-ball

Dave, I’m really struggling with the Atlanta philosophy this week. One, I think they’re motivated to clinch home field throughout the playoffs, which they do if they beat the hapless (but admittedly dangerous) Panthers. I managed to keep Atlanta alive in one of my pools and think they’re a much better choice this week than you have projected. Talk me out of it.

Chris

Hey,

5 left still in my pool.

I have Sea, Cle, Ind, Pit available.

Who my opponents have, which I’ve ordered in likeliness of who they’ll pick based on their prior pick history is:

Only 2 others can take Seattle. #4 has shown a tendency to not take the most popular team. #1 still has both SF and Den, meaning he has an advantage in future weeks so he’s most likely to take the most favored team.

I think if 3 of us are on Seattle it probably would’ve been better picking someone else. The potential problem with picking someone else though is I could end up on the same team as #3 which would be tragic.

thoughts? I’m leaning towards seattle for now.

Robert Ebin

David,

I am one of six left. Pick% have been pretty much right on the money in this group. Everyone has CLE and SEA left. My guess is 3 take SEA, 1 Takes CLE, 1 wild card on CLE or TB. I don’t have TB. Better to be guy #2 on CLE or guy #4 on SEA? I have to take 2 picks in week 15 and have already taken, not in this order: HOU/CIN/DAL/MIN/TB/DEN/SF/GB/NE/NYJ/ATL/BAL/DET…thanks!

GoBlue91

100 people left in my pool, double picks start Week 15. Don’t want to use the Seahawks this week or Dolphins next week due to popularity. What option would you suggest I use, deciding between Tampa and Cleveland this week but I think Tampa might have some future value week 16 vs. the Rams.
Option 1: 14- TB, 15-HOU/SEA, 16-IND/PIT, 17-NO/TEN
Option 2: 14- CLE, 15-HOU/SEA, 16-IND/TB, 17-PIT/NO

Thanks!

Frank_Elways

ATL -180 is all you really need to know.

E-ball

Yeah, I think part of me is just pissed I saved Atlanta and they have no value at all after this week.

Kyle

13 left in a pool that started WK8 and can go into the playoffs. I have used CHI, SD, BAL,DAL, CIN and GB. I think most will be on SF, SEA and DEN (I can see how many take DEN on thurs night. Would TB be a better choice then CLE or do I use SF or another team?

Joe Allan

Hi Dave. Our pool requires that we have our pick in by Thursday morning. We have 80 people left in our pool. I think most will be on Seattle and Tampa.

Here is my plan the rest of the way. Please tell me if there is anything you would change. I always appreciate your advice.

Hi David, thanks so much for doing these, I really appreciate them. I just have one question for this week. You say Tampa Bay is a great pick because they have no future value, but what about week 16 vs. St. Louis? I’m not sure I trust the Panthers, and I think I’d much rather go with Tampa that week. What are your thoughts?
Thanks a lot!

AJT

Dave,

There are 4 left in my pool, and I have Denver and Seattle. I am the only one with Denver – the other three have Seattle and Tampa Bay. I’m leaning towards Denver, but wanted to get your thoughts.

Thanks

Mark

Hey David,
Thanks I’m still alive in 1 pool and went out in another last week due to Detroit :-(.
So there are only 2 of us left and here are the teams we used:
THEM: ATL, BAL, BUF, CHI, CIN, DAL, DEN, GNB, HOU, IND, NWE, NYG & PIT (picked BUF last week).
ME: ATL, BAL, CHI, CIN, DAL, GNB, HOU, MIN, NWE, NYG, SDG, SFO & TAM
Do you recommend SEA, DEN or CLE?
Thanks,
Mark

Dave

I managed to dodge the bullets last week as my pool was whittled down from 19 to 13.

10 of 13 have SEA available in this pool…it would be interesting to know the ratio of number people picking SEA to the number of people that have SEA available.

I have PIT, TB and CLE available this week, and I’m having a hard time predicting how many people might shun SEA for one of these teams.

PIT would seem to be the safest in terms of popularity. Only 4 of 13, including myself, have PIT available, and one of them will almost certainly pick SF. And since I have NYG in reserve for week 17, PIT doesn’t hold a lot of future value for me. Luckliy, my deadline is Sunday, so I can wait for definitive news on Big Ben.

TB and CLE are both solid options as well, so I will have no qualms about picking either of them. We’ll see how those lines move.

Ferv

Dave,
In a pool with 17 people left. Here’s the breakdown of best options for this week:

0 can take SF
0 can take GBAY
4 can take DEN
6 can take PITT
11 can take SEA
16 can take CLEV
16 can take INDY
17 can take TBAY

I have PITT, SEA, CLEV, INDY, TBAY available to me. Based on this whom do you think is my best bet? I was originally thinking SEA this week as my best option to win.

Plan for rest of season is MIA week 15,TBAY/WASH/CAR for week 16, and NOR/PITT/SEA/SD for week 17.

Let me know what you think. Thank you!

http://twitter.com/the_acylum Ace Woogie

hey guys,

still 4 left. every one will probably take TB or SEA (heavy favourite) this week in the pool. been following most of your picks so don’t have either of these 2 teams available. I do however have Denver available, the rest don’t, this is the case with Pittsburgh, and NYG as well. W/ Big Ben highly probable to play, would it be worth the risk to take Pittsburgh now as opposed to Denver in order to play them in 16 and finish it off with NYG in 17? We all will have a tough pick to make in week 15. This of course is if I decide that I’m not comfortable w/ the Browns this week.

http://www.facebook.com/adam.stein.315 Adam Stein

Hey Dave, we have 29 people left and need to make 2 picks.. 24/29 have seattle left so the majority of those will probably take them.. I have Seattle, TB, Indy, Cleveland and the Giants as options… What do you think?

cybergolf1

I was looking for opinions from everyone…The list didn’t do so well last week into the 2nd tier so just looking for people that have football brains that want to give some input…I’m leaning PITT or INDY as of now.

Tyson

Just curious, why didn’t you use them in week 11?

Chris

with 2 left and den still in your wheelhouse i’d definitely go with seattle this week. absolutely not cleveland, and no point using up den this week just to be different when he will likely take a -500 favourite in seattle. stay with him, and have a better advantage another week.

MC

Dave,

I may have jinxed your streak by fearing Detroit “sometimes plays dumb” last week. Thanks for getting me to week 13 – would not have made it this far without you guys. I’ll be back next year for NCAA and NFL Survivor.

Mark

Rich

Hi David, my pool of 186 is down to 49. I am choosing between Seattle
and San Francisco this week. If I take Seattle, I could save San Fran
for week 17. Wanted to get your thoughts. Possibilities for the rest of
the season are WK 14-Seattle/SF WK 15- Miami, WK16- WASH, CAR or CHI,
WK-17 SanFran/Seattle

http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=667456521 Justin Miller

Just out of curiosity, how many people started out in your pool?

E-ball

I had two entries in a particular pool; used Atlanta in one and New Orleans in the other. The Atlanta entry was knocked out by Detroit last week, but I survived with Dallas on the second one.

Manny

Dave,

I have a different type of survivor pool where I have to pick the loser. I’m down to the final 4. My 2 options are picking against the dolphins and eagles.

My projected path:

wk 14 Mia (@SF), wk 17 Phi (@NYG)

wk 14 Phi (@TB), wk 17 Mia (@NE)

1 other entry can take Miami and 2 other entries can take the Eagles. Also, does it make a difference in my other regular pool that I’m taking Tampa to beat the Eagles?
Thanks for the help.

Eric S.

Dave,

We have around 150 people left out of 1,300. About 40% (60 people) have already picked Seattle going into this week. With how your system is set up, would 56% of the people who haven’t picked Seattle use them this week? I’m trying to figure out the numbers on if Cleveland is still a better value play this week over Seattle. Thanks.

John

Congrats, fyi as someone that has been in this spot, you are in a situation where you’ll get a big payday or nothing. I always think that you should hedge here and that the most efficient and cheapest way to hedge is to take a partial split of the pool among those that remain. so, you could split like 50% of the pot now and be assured of cashing a check. You can play for the rest. Just a thought.

Rich

Dave – I was one of those knocked out with Detroit, but wanted to say thanks for providing great articles and insight over the past 13 weeks. Keep up the great work, and we’ll go get it next year!

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, since you already have good options in Week 16/17, saving Denver doesn’t really improve your future outlook much. So I would go ahead and use them now.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Assuming Mr. 1-Strike will win the pool based on a tiebreaker if things stay the way they are now, you need to place a premium on picking a different team than him. If you think there is a good chance he’ll go TB, then I’d pick DEN. But if you think he will take SEA, TB seems like a good choice, to save DEN.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

You need to penalize teams with future value more, and worry a bit less about popularity. I’d probably go CLE/PIT out of those 4 teams.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I lean SEA as well, if you think #4 will likely avoid them. Even if you do end up the third on them, you’re not giving up THAT much EV over being the only one on CLE in that case. I think the other option would be CLE and hope you’re the only one… but the downside there is pretty big if it goes wrong (what if 2/3 both end up on CLE?)

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Looks like the immediate value of being #2 on CLE is about 5% higher than being #4 on SEA. … I’d also watch the PIT game, and see if more sportsbooks put out lines for it. If they end up with a consensus around -300, I’d go for them, since you’ll probably be the only one.

Greg

5 teams left. I’m the only one with no strikes. 1 guy with 1 strike the rest with 2 strikes. I cannot see what team they picked but I’m guessing everyone is going with SEA. I like the CLE pick and hoping for an upset but I think I should be smart and go with SEA because I’m 90% sure that is what team the guy with 1 strike will take. Thoughts?

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

If you will need to make picks in the playoffs, SF seems like a terrible choice. TB vs. CLE is covered in the post, and the playoff thing doesn’t seem tohave any bearing there.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Future value is the part of our data table I am least confident in, so if you think there is a good reason to save them, that would knock them down the table a couple of spots.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, Id go DEN as well.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

+1

Robert

Thanks for your insight. I have already made my pick for the week so this is a strategy question. In a 3-strike league that usually ends during the nfl playoffs, how much more weight should future value be given during the course of the season?

Alex

This is my first survivor season and I followed your picks throughout the year just about to a (Wed. picks, b/c my league makes you pick before Thursday game). I luckily backed away from the Week 6 Arizona Wed. pick at the last second and survived.

Anyways, I’ve proceeded to Win my Survivor league once already (mid-season – almost everyone in the league is from NE and picked Pats week 2) and working on Win # 2 of the same season (everyone bought back in).

There are 5 people left now and I have only used: Vikings, Chi, GB, Balt, ATL, Cincy and Dallas (avoided Detroit as well last week, due to better pick via everyone buying back in midseason).

The people I am playing are pretty dumb and therefore ironically hard to predict. Out of your top choices: 49ers (no one including me has used), Seahawks (no one including me has used), or Buccaneers (no one including me has used). However, 2/4 people left have used Broncos (I have not). I guess this is a no brainer for me – go with Denver? My only concern is that the other 2/4 will use Broncos, whereas all of these people may skip over Seahawks (even though Yahoo has them so heavily used).

Should I just stop overthinking and go w/ Broncos since they are top pick and at least 2/4 cant use them? Also, like you said, week 17 may be null and the DEN pick (or any for that matter) may not be useful at all.

One last thing, I’m thinking this for the rest of the year: Denver, Texans (everyone in my league has taken them but me), Patriots (everyone in my league has taken them but me), then final week whatever looks best (probably NY Giants or San Fran). Thoughts?

Your site is great and thanks for the help!!!

Alex

Kyle

Only 5 of 13 can use DEN would it be better to use them now if I was only the 3rd on them? Or save them for future or playoff value?

Jon

Hi David – great run and thanks for the advice along the way. I’m 1 of 2 left in my pool. My opponent has already burned Denver but has Sea and SFO available and will likely play one of those teams. I have Den available but have burned SFO, Sea and Tampa. Do I play Denver now or go with Clev and save Den knowing he will have Sea or SFO for later? Thanks in advance

Tyson

The table above has his list of teams in order. I’d take TB if I were you.

aaron

I’m in a part 2 pool which started week 6….There are clearly gonna be hundreds of people left into the playoffs…Should I go ahead and burn Denver?

would have:

week15: Cin,Hou,Miami

week16: Wash Hou

week 17: Giants,chargers

aaron

or just pick cleveland

Bcg

21 people left. Wacky rule-you can’t pick against the same team more than twice. I think everyone is on Seattle this week. Was thinking with team 1 going pitt(14), miami(15), den(16), 17?. Team 2 was looking Denver this week then a lot of question marks. Any advice?

Hi, I am in a pool with me and one other guy left. It took 5 weeks to get down to us two and we’ve been facing off for 9 weeks now. We have pretty much evened out the picks now and have practically the same teams left to choose from. I have used DEN, DAL, CHI, ATL, NOR, DET, HOU, BUF, CIN, PIY, SF, GNB, and NE. What’s your opinion? I was contemplating using Tampa Bay this week because I have a decent feeling my opponent will pick Seattle.

Joseph T

Have followed throughout the year and good stuff on this site… Great work
In a pool with 2 people left I have Denver + Houston left the other guy does not have either left He will most likely take Seattle this week…

I planned on taking Seattle this week, Miami next, Houston week 16, Denver week 17
I am worried about Denver not having anything to play for and tanking the game then

Thanks David. I think the possible downside to taking Seattle is much less than taking Cle or someone else.
Dating back about 5 weeks the people in my pool also seemed to lay off the favorites and make more +ev picks. But of late it appears they’ve opted for the safer route.

John that’s something I’ve considered but not worth it here. It was only a 60 person pool so the payout isn’t huge. I’d considered a 2 person chop, or maybe 3-way for half the pot and play for the rest. Splitting it up 5-ways isn’t good. Also I’d say I have the 2nd or 3rd best options remaining. 2 ppl are quickly running out of options.

BR

we started with 1120, we are now down to 42. I have used all of the usual suspects (Hou, NYG, Chi, Bal, SF, Atl, Min, GB, Sea, Pitt, Dal, Den, & NE). Looking to form a plan for the next 4 weeks. How does the following sound?

wk14- TB, wk15 – Cin, wk16 – Wash, wk17 – SD

If there are 2 or more remaining after reg season, we reset for the playoffs. you got me this far, let’s keep it going…thanks!

http://twitter.com/jeffrouk Jeff Shaw

Hi, thanks again for a great post. My dilemma is this: now in a head-to-head. Pretty sure my opponent will take SEA, since he can and knows I can’t. So in theory, I should just take DEN (I’ve used SF & TAM), right? But my opponent still has DEN too, so I worry we both make it to week 16 and he’s in a much better position than me. So I’m thinking I’ll take CLE (or maybe PIT if the news is favourable on Friday Sunday), or am I being an idiot taking the risk…?

Thanks!

Jack Straw

With the distribution and avaiability, and being the only one with DEN left, you would recommend hanging on to DEN until week 16 and going with TB now?

Lobohijo

Been reading you all season; Thanks for such great analysis! I’m in a pool that started with 383 people and now has 10. I’ve picked Houston, Cincinnati, Chicago, Green Bay, NY Giants, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Miami, Detroit, Seattle, Atlanta, and (starting week 12 we pick 2 teams/week) New England & Denver, and Dallas & NY Jets.
At the begining of the week I was excited by what I saw as a huge advantage of still having San Fran & Pittsburgh (assuming Big Ben plays) available this week, because NO ONE else has EITHER one available. (After sweating it out with the Jets and Cowboys last week, I could pick SF & PIT and relax for a change).
But then I realized this is probably the best week left to pick Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Jacksonville. So if I survive using SF & PIT, and others survive using Seattle (8 of 9 others still have) and one of the Clev/Indy/Jax, then we all survive, (maybe I sweated less), but I missed the best chance to use Clev/Indy/or Jax, turning my advantage into a disadvantage.
Obviously I could pick SF & Pit, get them both right, and A) the other 9 all get at least one wrong (and I start making plans to take you Nerds out to dinner), or B) I live to fight another day. But “just get the picks right and live to fight another day” is the strategy I learned from you Nerds NOT to employ, and it’s gotton me this far.
I’m not worried about pick popularity anymore, although I’m glad you emphasized it so much all season. Those popular picks we avoided together came SO CLOSE to being upset seemingly EVERY WEEK (remember how close Oak was to holding on in Atl week 6, and the Jets in NE week 7, and Buf in NE week 10, and KC in Pit week 10, and how tough Jax played at GB week 8 and at Hou week 11). If any and/or all (coulda) woulda (shoulda!) happened, winning my pool would’ve been a lot easier.
But Hey, I’m still alive now, which brings me back to my dillema, which 2 home teams do you think I should take this week: SF, Pit, Clev, Indy, Jax, Buf, Wsh, Car?
THANKS AGAIN FOR AN AWESOME READ ALL SEASON, Good Luck, and Happy Holidays!!!
-Lobohijo

rcc22

i would go Denver…at this point why save teams…
otherwise…Colts/Clev…save Pitt for later

Robert Ebin

Thanks David, interesting thought on pit, because the other 5 already picked them vs. Kc…so I would be the only one on them.

Chad

Three left in my pool. Other two guys will likely be on SEA. Should I go tampa bay or pittsburgh or cleveland?

http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com Jack Lenenberg

Just curious, David, with 70% ++ of picks projected to be on Miami next week, why would Miami be your “projected path?” Just as you recommend avoiding Seattle this week for being too popular will you not be recommending avoiding Miami in week 15 when 70%+ of pool picks are on Dolphins?

Or is projected path simply highest pointspread favorite available for future week without regard to EV?

http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com Jack Lenenberg

Take SF and Pittsburgh now (when nobody has them) move Seattle to week 17 (once again when nobody will probably have them).

Fat Drunk and Stupid

Oh Crap – our pick deadline is Friday at noon – 12 left in the pool – Pit, Sea, or Cle. Ahhhhhhh – With Ben back and Norv on his way out San Diego mailing it in – what to do???? No one has picked Sea and all but 3 of us have picked Pit.

http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com Jack Lenenberg

His opponent has San Francisco too.

http://www.longtermcareinsurancepartner.com Jack Lenenberg

Pittsburgh will be -7.5 or -8; -375 or -400 ML.

Goldrock

David, there are 12 people left in our pool out of 329. My choices this week are Seahawks, TB or Cleveland. I have plotted my picks for the next 4 weeks has Seahawks, Miami, Indy and NYG. What is your reason for not liking the Seahawks over the Arizona this week.

AMannix

We press on Dave. Thanks for the help.

Jimbo

My pool is down to 186 but have to pick two winners this week….who would you take out of Steelers, Browns, Giants, Colts?

Jimbo

Dave – My pool is down to 186 but have to pick two winners this week….who would you take out of Steelers, Browns, Giants, Colts? Thanks.

cybergolf1

I am a Seahawk season ticket holder and a fan since day one…TAKE SEA…AZ might not score more than 3-6 points in this game…Wilson doesn’t make mistakes and AZ can be run on…Good luck!

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yep, I’d go PIT, given the updated lines.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Popularity is much less important in a double picks situation, as many SEA pickers could be eliminated *anyway* by their second choice. I would guess SEA+TB is the most popular choice this week, so I’d avoid that combo if possible. but SEA+PIT/CLE/IND would be decent, I think.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I think the paths are similar in safety, but MIA may be less popular given your opponents’ remaining teams, plus taking MIA hedges your TB win pick in the other pool. So I’d lean MIA.

danny

“over 50% of the public is picking them”

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

The 56% is how many people are using them on OfficeFootballPool. I don’t know how many have them available, so not sure what the rate of picking them would be among the people who have them as an option. If only 25% of your pool picks SEA, they are probably as good a pick as CLE.

Though PIT would be better, due to line movements.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yes, I would definitely go SEA. You want to match the 1-strike guy’s pick, if possible. Plus SEA is safer, per the lines.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Probably less value given to future regular season (since you have multiple strikes, a single future loss is less important), and more given to playoff odds. How much is hard to say.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I think the path you laid out at the end sounds great, given that everybody has used a couple of those teams. … I guess it’s too late at this point, though. Did you end up on Denver?

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

If you need to pick in the playoffs, I hope you didn’t take Denver. New post will be up shortly with updated table.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Remember that a split is not inherently bad, so there is no reason to pick a different team than your opponent *just* to avoid a split. If avoiding SEA now will let you pick them later, then it makes sense. But SEA doesn’t seem to have that much future value, so not too sure about that strategy.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

PIT, now that their line has risen so much.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Yeah, was not really thinking about popularity when laying out that path. It’s true we may try to avoid MIA next week, depending on what other options are. But certainly wouldn’t be CLE or PIT, so no real impact on this choice, I think.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Thank you.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

PIT + CLE, I think.

http://www.facebook.com/matt.simmons.75098 Matt Simmons

Nice run guys! Lucky I already used the lions before last week. We have 31 left out of 2932. I choosing between TAMPA, CLE, SEATTLE, AND STEELERS. Everyone pretty much has the first three left. Only 3 of us have the steelers left. Any suggestion for me?

http://www.facebook.com/matt.simmons.75098 Matt Simmons

Hey guys nice run! Lucky for me I already took det. We have 37 people left out of 2937. I am choosing between SEATTLE, PITT, TAMPA, AND CLE. Mostly everyone has sea, tam, and CLE. I am one of three that has the steelers left. I am leaning towards Cleveland and saving the steelers. What would u suggest? If we don’t loss 8 or more this week next week are double picks. Just something I have to keep in mind.

joe

Hi,
3 people left in my pool .
I have to choose from TampaBay,cleveland and Indy. what would you suggest?

joe

Hi,
3 people left in my pool.
I have Tampa,indy and cleveland available,who would you suggest

Adam Stein

Thanks Dave.. I think I’m going to roll with Seattle TB because Colts and 49ers are slightly more popular than Tb as the 2nd choice

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