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Tim Hudak is scary. The right-winger served for years as a Con MPP and cabinet minister in Ontario (for Mike Harris). As leader of the party he was single-handedly credited with losing a big election to the Libs who then went on to be crushed eight years later by Doug Ford. By promising to create a million jobs in that campaign he was less than credible. By promising to punt 100,000 provincial employees, he was terrifying. Way back then (2014) people didn’t want slash-and-burn politicians. Today despots are in.

Well, Tim went on to become CEO of the Ontario Real Estate Association, which lobbied hard for Ford, fought for an end to the land transfer tax and apparently has assumed some kind of seat near the throne. Could be big implications for the housing market. After all, early Ford pronouncements were to scrap the foreign buyers’ tax, then to pave over the greenbelt (that one was later rethought).

So, next Wednesday some of this may become clearer – as Hudac’s cartel tells its members in a live stream, “How Premier Ford will Affect Realtors and Home Ownership.” Here’s the promo:

And here’s the pitch, which was sent to all of the house-floggers in the province on Thursday:

For the first time in 15 years, the Liberal party no longer holds power at Queen’s Park.

Next week, a new majority government led by Premier Designate Doug Ford will officially take the reins of power.

On June 27th, join me for a live video webcast to discuss what the new government means for you, your business and the thousands of Ontarians who buy and sell homes every year.

Save the date in your calendars and don’t forget to tune in.

Date: Wednesday, June 27th 2018Time: 11:00 a.m.What: How Premier Designate Doug Ford & The New Progressive Conservative Government Will Affect REALTORS? And Home OwnershipWhere: www.orea.com/livestream

So, what will be announced? And why would the big reveal of government action not be coming from the government (which won’t yet be sworn in), as opposed to an industry lobby group? Have the Ontario Cons decided to do what their federal partners did back in 2009, and try to goose the economy by stoking house lust?

That would include not only ditching the Greater Golden Horsehoe anti-Chinese-dudes tax, but also revoking Toronto’s right to charge double land transfer tax (it adds about $26,500 to the cost of the average house) or at least giving first-time buyers a big rebate. The realtors also want the creation of PRECs – personal real estate corporations – allowing individual agents to have corps to defer tax, income-split with family members and smooth out cash flow while avoiding tax at the same rate paid by employees. And during the election, these guys lobbied hard for slashing regulations, zoning restrictions, lot levies and other government requirements that add big bucks to the cost of houses. They even formed the “Ontario Realtor Party.” Seriously.

And here’s the pitch, in one simple, heart-rending video of dewey-eyed, house-horny moisters cruelly denied the ability to mortgage their futures and plunge into home ownership at the apex of price, and risk. Alas.

Well, like in BC, lots of people will applaud this. The desperation for real estate never ends. The departing Libs learned that late, and their Spring 2017 measures served to depress the market, kill sales and drop prices. Combined with rising mortgage costs and the stress test, properties in some areas of the GTA lost a quarter of their value in a few months – the first fissure in nine years.

People here just don’t like being taxed into the stone ages and told that it’s for their own good.

Not sure what is going on out West, but I know Ontario.

Whenever we get tax and spend socialists in Ontario, things always end with a hard right swing in politics, and we get slashing, cutting, burning and destruction of all the trappings and enterprises of socialism.

Right, so in other words, to paraphrase an earlier blog post, if the PCs win the bottom is in. When I repeated your words to you last week you told me to read harder. But that seems to be the message indeed.

Someone needs to remind Premier Ford that he represents Canadian citizens living in Ontario. Scrapping the FBT would be putting wealthy, money-laundering foreign interests over those of the people who elected him.

Oh and a big LOL at the registered trademark ?? symbol after REALTORS in the Hudac email.

Not to drink the beer imported from USA because the ingredients are a secret. None of the brewers have to list their ingredients, because they are regulated by the TTB which is a branch of the US Department of the Treasury.

If you choose to buy in BC or Ontario you are a fool. The rest of Canada, maybe. Im in Edmonton and Ive seen asking prices come down a lot, I think theres plenty of room to go still, but if you’re here for the long haul, whatever take the plunge if you must.

It takes about 15 minutes of looking around online to see that “for the most part” Canada’s residential RE is disconnected from fundamentals. We can nitpick about foreign buyer tax, transfer tax, interest rates, stress tests and yada yada; for me the bottom line is housing is out of whack.

I can’t see a scenario where 10 years from now residential housing (again specifically BC/ONT) is at the same levels or higher than it is today. The run up has been just too much, and this puppy will pop, it’s a question of when, not if. The fact that votes are cast based on whether you own a condo or not should tell you all you need to know. Don’t say you weren’t warned, Caveat emptor.

As the sprawl increases so do commute times. Housing prices go up and spending money goes down. They work 8 hours, sit in a car for 3 hours and go home to their own private box. Less time with family, less time with friends, and no money to do anything else but pay their bills. They get less sleep and have no time to exercise resulting in their mental faculties slowly deteriorating. In their minds they are doing everything right but have an anger and depression bubbling below the service that they can’t explain.

Sure, as the video shows, the transfer tax was the biggest element in housing affordability. If realtors were in charge, everything would be super affordable, and everyone’s equity would increase at the same time. There is no reason why the average Toronto condo can’t sell for an affordable eight million dollars within the next few years. There’s nothing left to do but sit back and watch the magic happen.

The biggest problem facing housing isn’t the land transfer tax or FBT. The stress test, interest rates and no CHMC after a million is what’s keeping the market suppressed. That won’t change since very few people actually have money. Not to mention millennials will be the a huge group to piss off.

The sector that stands out if you want to be in a growing and working labour pool, is the Transportation and Warehousing sector… it’s up 4% Y/Y and for the months I have been watching this metric, that’s a typical number as opposed to say higher wage groups like Professional, Scientific and Technical Services at 2.1% or Public Sector employment at 2.3%.

Unskilled labour employment is growing much faster than skilled labour positions – a result no doubt of our persistence as a consumer society. After we buy all that stuff, we have to move it.

Perhaps Doug Ford will reduce the barriers to real estate in Ontario. According to my Employment rate chart Toronto and Ontario are already destinations for the not employed. A housing boom 2.0 in Ontario may indeed attract even more labour migrants to compete for construction and transportation sector jobs.

#7 Shogo on 06.21.18 at 5:04 pm
Way to go all you self serving “conservatives”. Did you hear Rob Ford’s brother plans to build subways all the way out to Markham and Pickering? How many billions of tax dollars will that cost?

—————————————————

Probably less than all the Liberals scandals cost us, and at least we’d get much needed transit infrastructure out of it. After the UP Express fiasco the Liberals foisted on taxpayers in order to impress rich foreigners, the new Ford government certainly couldn’t do worse.

i miss his brother, i met him once, he was a real fat guy sweating with his jacket, he looked like Chris foley the actor who died of drugs too. same rolly polly look and bouncing around .
i shouldnt speak poorly of the deceased, but i dont know Doug, but at 53.5% marginal tax man, who would want to stay in Ontario and get to know him.
what and you pay in dollorettes, and what i cant write off my mortgage, wow, Ford nation is not for me.
with a crazy debt level, and structural benefits to all the people of the province, I dont know what he can do to right the ship.
its drifting along, congested highways, high real estate prices etc.
good luck Doug

The removal of this anti RE regulation will produce two phases of response. The first will see the GTA RE market light up across all segments again (SFD, condos, townhouses). The second will see the market do what it was supposed to do years ago already -correct painfully. This phase may start in five years so if someone wants to buy in the GTA, now is the best time and will be for a while. The hard correction will last another five years when it hits. Anyone who has not bought will have a good entry point. Others who bought now will have to ride it out (if they can). Afterwards its up to she goes again. The GTA is really booming and will be from now on.

You can’t put lipstick on a pig.
This real estate market is toast.
Hudac and Ford can’t save it.
The low ball offers are all the rage and the buyers are permanently on the side lines.
It will be a slow painful decline with a commensurate increase in divorce rates. Talk to realtors from the early 1990’s to hear how depressing that job was. Distressed sales from nasty divorces. It’s already happening as the financial stress of overpaying or having too many properties hits home.
The pressure on these guys to get promotions or work 100 hour weeks will surely kill them.
Fun times ahead.

icymi
this deserves a repost!
————–
Howard on 06.21.18 at 4:48 pm
“Thank god for Harper’s and Flaherty’s steady hand and intellect to guide our country through the global financial crisis relatively unscathed.

Thank god for the USA whose strong economy has, until now at least, kept Canada prosperous – so prosperous that even the election of an airheaded narcissistic dilettante can’t do any real damage, yet.”

It’s almost criminal that the only real choice to ending 15 years of Ontario Liberal corruption was a vote-buying, data-mining toddler, the perfectly clueless and illiterate patsy for all conflict-of-interest lobbyists to play Ontario voters like banjos.

If you call yourself a personal real estate corporation (this is popular amongst real estate agents in BC) you, and anyone directly related to, or that benefits from your ownership of your personal real estate corporation should be forced to forego the personal residence exemption on capital gains generated from the sale of residential real estate.

No more flipping pre-builds by putting them in the name of your spouse, or teen-aged children, then keeping the profits in the corporation.

Good luck to greater Toronto real estate then. It’s nice that more foreign money will be flowing there (instead of Vancouver) with Mr Ford in charge. (They can have it). It would be nice if he loosened up the ability for hidden ownership and money laundering too, to get that off our hands in Vancouver also.

#29 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.21.18 at 6:00 pm
I don’t think most people voted FOR Ford, they just voted AGAINST the Libs and the Dips. I think that is how Trump got elected, he wasn’t Hillary and got elected as the lesser of two evils.

@#33 big english
“On my nightly runs around my Vancouver neighborhood, more FSBO signs are popping up.”
+++++
I drive all over the Lower Mainland almost daily.
“For Lease” signs are popping up like mushrooms and “For Sale” signs on new model cars, SUVS, trucks, etc are starting to pop up.
The first things to go……

It was nothing more than a throw away vote because nobody out of the three were worth voting for. Now if one were inclined to vote at all, it should have gone to the Green Party. Mike Schreiner finally got a seat, and has been given the opportunity to stir up the pot a little in Ontario.

That’s where my moniker came from. For a while there was hope that these shysters would be dragged out into the light and made to pay their taxes like the rest of the night school educated crowd. Not so sure what happened to that initiative. Maybe the real estate lobby really is that strong.

He is going to take a page straight out of the Christy Clark play book.

At least for once I am not reading about this insanity by a politician in my own backyard screwing me over. BC ain’t dicking around anymore with bringing families to the brink.

I will be very interested to hear what Doug has to announce, but I can already tell. And this guy didn’t waste anytime.

Might give a short term boost to GTA housing until the recession next year which at such time nobody will be able to stop the crash in real estate across the country. The real crash. And that will be driven by rates.

THE ENIGMA!
Garth, you are starting to become an enigma. One day Real Estate is going down for the long count, the next day , time to vulch. All the stats and tea leaves indicate further declines, I am confused to say the least.
Moving along, you and the media are constantly on the Trump attack. However you seem to have forgotten a much younger Garth, tilting at windmills, running for parliament and trying to make changes that only you could recognize.
Now in the U.S. they have a president who much like a younger Garth Turner, is a voice in the wilderness, who is doing his best to stand up for his country. “Make America Great “, could there be a thread of jealousy running through your veins? What other reason for you to be once again tilting at windmills. Garth ,you can’t be a time traveller and go back, cut the man some slack and try to be a little more objective. You can trust me as the teller of truth in the land of gypsies, tramps, and thieves.

I find insult in the comparison with a person who openly lies, is xenophobic, intolerant, belittling, jingoistic and crude. As for real estate, it is not monolithic. There are always bargains. – Garth

Hey Doug. You should try my first time home buyer free loan for the first 5-year initiative that I created. It didn’t survive but it sure cranks up the first time condo buying and will be sure to do so in your city of Toronto.

We achieved an average condo price of 986K in Vancouver and you too can get those prices in Toronto up to the 1M.

the quit rate = job hoppers ?
===========================
Quits are voluntary separations initiated by employees. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.
?
The number of quits has exceeded the number of layoffs and discharges for most of the JOLTS history. During the
latest recession, this relationship changed as layoffs and discharges outnumbered quits from November 2008 through
March 2010.
?
The difference between the number of quits and the number of layoffs and discharges has been increasing since
2010.
?
In April 2018, there were 3.4 million quits and 1.7 million layoffs and discharges.

On the last business day of April, the job openings level was little changed but reached a new series
high of 6.7 million. The series began in December 2000. The job openings rate was 4.3 percent in April
2018. The number of job openings was little changed for total private and for government. Job openings
increased in durable goods manufacturing (+33,000) and information (+26,000) but decreased in finance
and insurance (-84,000). The number of job openings was little changed in all four regions. (See table
1.) …..

Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle. Net
employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations. When the number of
hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining.
Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even
if the hires level is steady or rising. Over the 12 months ending in April, hires totaled 66.1 million and
separations totaled 63.7 million, yielding a net employment gain of 2.4 million. These totals include
workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year. read more @

#29 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.21.18 at 6:00 pm
I don’t think most people voted FOR Ford, they just voted AGAINST the Libs and the Dips. I think that is how Trump got elected, he wasn’t Hillary and got elected as the lesser of two evils.
#####################
Capt. Obvious, tell us something we don’t know. You make the same stupid comments from one posting to another.

GE was paying for its retired CEO the following: an apartment for the couple on Central Park West; membership fees at five country clubs; staff at four homes up and down the East Coast; lifetime use of a Boeing 737 corporate jet; charge accounts at florists and an expensive New York restaurant; and free tickets to sports events. Forbes put Welch’s retirement package at $417 million.
=====================
Weill stepped down as CEO at Citigroup in 2003, he had received over $1 billion in compensation.
After Weill’s exit, regulators eventually discovered that the company had hid subprime debt off its balance sheet for years and was drowning in toxic debt. Citigroup received the largest taxpayer bailout in U.S. history during the financial crash.

Well!! Sounds like ALL IN on real estate! Get out the credit card cash advances and back the heloc truck up mom…we are going to be invest’in in real estate!!
Who needs a balanced portfolio when we gots Leverage+ inflation + FOMO?!

Did Henry Ford or GM build their car manufacturing plants right beside an iron ore mine? Of course not.

Every major oil company in the world has, from time to time, examined the prospect of a new refinery in Alberta and more often than not, has passed on the idea.

Reminds me of my days in Fort McMurray hearing residents say, “If only we had a Costco and a Home Depot, life would be perfect.” Right, those two companies did not have the brains to suss out a city of 75,000 people with an average family income of about $175,000.

Thanks again Garth.
What a video!
Right, our young couple (very pregnant) can’t afford to buy the house.
But hey, they realize they don’t have the money
(‘We can’t afford it!’) and will have to keep renting.
And so?? Good for them!

Now imagine putting every last nickel on your down payment, paying your monthly mortgage and housing expenses (double your rent, at least). Then try doing that on maternity leave etc.
Then try splitting up because the financial strain takes a major toll on your marriage.

There are many really great American beers now that we can’t get up here. A much better selection of terrific craft beers as well. My brothers own rec properties in NW Montana so we are all down there regularly. I like Michelob Amber Bock for example. Awesome beer and it’s not available up here. Fat Tire, Longboard, Samuel Adams are also good beers in my book.

59 NOSTRADAMUS on 06.21.18 at 7:22 pm
“…….However you seem to have forgotten a much younger Garth, tilting at windmills, running for parliament and trying to make changes that only you could recognize……”
______________________________________

Maybe, unlike Baird (Minister of Pilfering Border Infrastructure Funding), Clement (Minister of Vote-Buying Gazebos), and all the other Harper hypocrites who could only ‘recognize’ their own images in a deep trough, Garth showed some rare backbone and integrity that was actually in the interest and well-being for Canadians in general (and paid the Harpocrite price for it).

As far as far as the Commander-in-Cheese “doing his best to stand up for his country” and “cut the man some slack and try to be a little more objective”, maybe you could start up a #CagesForTheKiddies Go-Fund-Me web page.

I’m sure there must be a few leftover retirees-in-hiding in South America willing to share their WW2 blueprints with you.

Paul Wells, the author wrote up the best article on the loser Singh a couple of days ago. He did it in such a way you will be laughing from start to finish. The star portrayed became a buffoon in the end by answering questions. Singh has no clue about politics, and doesn’t know what to do. Mr. Wells – you did good lol.

#55 B.C. to crack down on ‘hidden’ property owners on 06.21.18 at 7:13 pm
This is outstanding!

VICTORIA — The British Columbia government is taking steps to end opportunities to anonymously invest and hide wealth in real estate.

Finance Minister Carole James says a new, publicly accessible registry is being created to identify the owners of real estate in the province.

A news release from the Ministry of Finance says the first-of-its-kind registry in Canada is aimed at improving transparency in the real estate market while ensuring owners pay their share of taxes.

The real estate money laundering channel is getting cleaned up and along with it is all those tax avoiding speculators who are going to get nailed.

Adults are finally starting to do their job in BC.

You won’t see Doug Ford doing this. In fact, Dougy will be advertising the money laundering dream in Toronto.

I feel bad for the younger people in the GTA. I have a feeling housing is not going to get any easier anytime soon.

You realize this is a step towards a wealth tax in BC, right? – Garth
=================================
A wealth tax in BC for US and other foreign owners would be fine. Aw heck you could even throw in Albertans if need be.

I am thrilled to hear so many people in Ontario are
awaiting the repeal of many taxes on real estate with
Doug Ford’s proposals. We can only hope that the dollars invested in our empty homes (which are serving as banks
for offshore investors) will move to the East and bring you the same happiness we have enjoyed.

The fastest fix for housing availability and affordability is to make legislative changes to the Ontario Assessment Act. As currently written it allows residentially zoned lands to be taxed as farmland. This allows developers to hold housing lands off of the market, even if fully serviced with no property tax implications. Fix the Assessment Act and that will go a long way to address housing availability.

#80 Cow Man on 06.21.18 at 9:50 pm
The fastest fix for housing availability and affordability is to make legislative changes to the Ontario Assessment Act. As currently written it allows residentially zoned lands to be taxed as farmland. This allows developers to hold housing lands off of the market, even if fully serviced with no property tax implications. Fix the Assessment Act and that will go a long way to address housing availability.
####################
False!

How many developer builders build first and sell second? Answer: ZERO

The availability of land has nothing to do with anything. Do you think builders are going to undercut the re-sale market and sell their builds for substantially less, ofcourse not.

All properties currently on the market are OVERPRICED and that is the problem!

That Croatia side has a lot of quality in it, and Argentina was starting a back-up keeper (which showed). Argentina was pasted by Spain in a friendly just before the WC tourney. I’m only surprised Argentina couldn’t find a goal, but not so shocked by the outcome.

Doug should not rule out letting houses be build on green spaces and farmland. The only thing that will make houses affordable is more land to build. After all that In utero baby from the commercial ain’t waiting for no crib! Mom is almost in labour.

As the US-imposed steel/aluminum tariffs start hurting us the Yanks have brought back to life five steel and aluminum processing plants. Another four are in the process of coming on line. That’s according to Wilbur Ross the US Commerce Secretary.

Meanwhile the government is conducting a big meeting of more than 3,000 business folks from 66 countries, said Ross in a TV interview of this date.

He doesn’t like tariffs much, but to make the trading playing field more appealing to the US, here is what he said:

…”…the only way we’re going to get foreign countries to lower their inordinate barriers is by making it more PAINFUL for them to continue those practices, then to get rid of them.”

This chap is one of many DC swampers who are engaged in the NAFTA talks.

The main guy is Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer who has said his job is to follow Trump’s orders and make things economically better for farmers, manufacturing and other workers. That is happening. For instance Volvo opened a new assembly plant in the US southeast two days ago.

Here’s some more from Ross: It’s…”not about trying to make money out of tariffs. Not really the END GAME here at all. But we need something to induce changes in their behavior.”

Speaking of which the EU and Japan have taken more protectionist measures for their exports, he noted. That’s aimed at leveling that playing field is my guess.

Ross also said this when asked if he’s prepared to see the US to suffer economic damage from those trade policies:

…it’s “…very hard to make an omelette if you don’t break some eggs…we’re talking about our future.”

Meanwhile a number of job training courses is being offered to increase worker skills, he said.

Elsewhere there are disquieting comments that economies may have peaked, as one observer predicts, with a recession next year or so.

Maybe Ross and his buds are preparing for such a possibility: keep their economy growing to meet hoped-for increasing internal demand pending the outcome of said next recession.

Ford and Hudak might want to look forward to 2022. Pissed Millennials, busy having their tattoos removed, will be in a solid position to do some real damage at the polls. Generation Vape is already under-employed, financially stunted and indebted. Affordable housing is a major issue for these folks.

Here is how they roll. I have been following the court case in Quebec City for reasons, and in the sentencing red flagged and copied it to my surprise. I sent it to a friend saying told you. An hour later two newspapers edited it out because it did not fit the created agenda. I then went to the source in Montreal, and there it was in plain sight unedited. They do this all the time on any major event, as the message must be controlled – nasty business today.

There are so many juicy nuggets in this post for the housing bulls which validate their narrative, and the fact they they have, and continue to be correct, for a decade or more now!

If a change in government can create a bottom to the housing correction in Ontario after a mere 15-30% dip in prices despite rising interest rates and the moister killing stress test, then the following is logically true:

1. All the real estate bulls saying that the system wants the appreciation and debt game to continue and a change in regulation/legislation can achieve it – are correct.

2. Rising interest rates and the moister killing stress test are not the market poppers as heralded here. Rising interest rates have been the boogeyman since 2012 as prices have had a parabolic increase. If prices go up again in the Ford nation following the stess test and significant increase in rates, then clearly there is no bubble.

3. RE bulls saying that its always a great time to buy because even if prices dip, they always go up again – its true if we expect a resumption of upward prices with a Ford government.

4. A market correcting a mere 15-30% after a several hundred percent run-up in prices over the past decade, and then anticpating a resumption in price appreciation after a change in provincial government, proves that risk aversive smarter than all renters on the sidelines have been so terribly wrong. And for those that failed to follow the herd are now trampled for life, unable to catch up in wealth.

#8 Tell The Dog on 06.21.18 at 5:10 pm
Not to drink the beer imported from USA because the ingredients are a secret. None of the brewers have to list their ingredients, because they are regulated by the TTB which is a branch of the US Department of the Treasury.
————
Canadian by Molson does not list the ingredients either.
Most North American beers don’t.
That’s why us Europeans call them “piss beer”

This is all just so corrupt Garth. The lack of transparency and history available for properties is shocking. I can’t believe in 2018 the RE industry is allowed to hide and mask the truth. I can only imagine some of the re-listings and price changes going on for some properties in the last 6 months. ( an example for your blog would be interesting ) This will eventually come to change and when it does – look out. Maybe people will finally talk about something else – the weather again :)

Hey Everybody! Just hold out not buying a house for a few more years! Old Baby Boomers (Hoarders) are going to try to start cashing out! If you don’t buy their house, they’ll have to drop their price. We have one thing more of than they do, TIME!

#97 Buy? Curious? on 06.22.18 at 5:26 am
“Hey Everybody! Just hold out not buying a house for a few more years! Old Baby Boomers (Hoarders) are going to try to start cashing out! If you don’t buy their house, they’ll have to drop their price. We have one thing more of than they do, TIME!”

I can think of one other thing you have more of than we boomers: hormones. Ever heard of house horniness? Who will outwait whom? :)

“… in the ashes of NAFTA, would things get dangerous for Canada. At that point, Canadians would have to decide whether Trump is a summer squall in the relationship that will pass with the election of another president or whether “America first” represents a new ice age. If it is the latter, Canada will face an agonizing decision. The default option would be to remain committed to North America, with all the obvious advantages of shared geography, history, democracy, and language. That is what the country has done for most of its history, and could continue to do, although it would be near impossible to breach the protectionist walls of “Fortress America.”

Or Canada could take a different direction. It could diversify its economy and pivot to Europe and Asia, gradually reducing its economic dependence on the United States. This would mean revisiting the “Third Option,” a proposal that Pierre Trudeau’s government made in 1972 in reaction to protectionist measures imposed by the Nixon administration. The idea back then was to sell less to the United States and more to Europe. Today, it would mean creating a new trade agreement with a post-Brexit United Kingdom, pursuing free trade with China and other Asian countries, and deepening the existing agreement with the EU. Canada’s trade would become less continental and more global.

This would be a difficult, perhaps impossible, option. It is easier to trade across the street than across the ocean. Canada would have to retool its economy, relying less on exports of natural resources and shifting more heavily to high technology and light manufacturing. That would take decades, but with its diverse, multilingual, well-educated, and globally connected population, the country could do this more easily than most.

Such a shift would signal the emergence of a bolder, more confident Canada, one more European than American in outlook. In particular, Canadian foreign policy might become more Nordic, given that Canada shares a climate (cold), geography (northern), and values (egalitarian, liberal, communitarian) with Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. Indeed, in their belief in universal health care, gender parity, minority rights, and a social safety net, as well as their rejection of guns, religion in politics, and capital punishment, Canadians have always been more Nordic than American.

This does not mean that Canada would ever abandon its security commitments to North America or declare neutrality. Canada would surely enhance, rather than diminish, its commitment to NATO. But untethered to the United States, Canada would gravitate more strongly to the UN and other international institutions that it has always supported but that Trump’s unilateralist United States distrusts. Unfazed by the threat of economic retaliation, Canada would be more skeptical of U.S. positions that offend its progressive worldview, such as full-throated support for Israel. The reality is that a Canada less economically dependent on the United States would be more politically independent of the United States.

All of this would represent a sea change for Canada, and an existential challenge, too. But having never seen a U.S. president like Trump before, Canadians must now think in a way they never have before: contemplating a radical new course in a world without America.

So, whenever I see Commercial traders unusually bullish (or bearish), I pay attention because they’re the most knowledgeable.

TCC
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Commercial traders aren’t the smart money in ANY market. It’s truly astounding how you spout off nonsense.

Why would corps, who are hedging, have any edge at predicting future price movements over hedge funds or real money who are trying to profit off of those movements? The amount of research, brain power, capital and data that funds throw at these problems is amazing. And they’re not even particularly good at it these days.

The idea that some treasury managers who spend 10% of their time on FX are the smart money, oh man, I just can’t stop laughing.

I wanted him back so much because of the love I have for him, I begged him with everything, I made promises but he refused. I explained my problem to someone online and she suggested that I should rather contact a spell caster ………????? ([email protected] YAHOO. COM) that could help me cast a spell to bring him back but I am the type that never believed in spell, I had no choice than to try it, I mailed the spell caster, and he told me there was no problem that everything will be okay before three days, that my ex will return to me before three days, he cast the spell and surprisingly in the second day, it was around 4pm. My ex called me, I was so surprised, —————————————————
I answered the call and all he said was that he was so sorry for everything that happened, ..( that he wanted me to return to him, that he loves me so much ). I was so happy and went to him, that was how we started living together happily again.

Bourque noted that, even though the drug is currently ..”illegal, B.C. Hydro found that more than 40,000 homes in that province were being used to grow cannabis indoors — a number that is projected to increase when criminal sanctions are removed as a result of C-45. (cbc)

As much as I despise the in your emotional pants tactics employed by realtards, can we really blame them for tapping the gullibility and stupidity of these markets? Endless commissions on tap, checkered flagged by gubbmint.

At least they help reduce the number of cutesy broken plant pots from China.

There are more non-users of MJ than there are users. The status quo is the drug is illegal. This means that a lot of non-users have to have supported legalization to make it work.

So yes, legalization was a gift from us non-users who support the legalization of this drug.

MF
—-
So people voted Liberal and NDP last time as a gift?
It was part of a platform, then it was a policy, then a bill, and now law. Explain what you gave again? You had no part in creating the law.
Also, ever think maybe some people thought “people are going to do it anyways, might as well tax it?”.

In 2016, 60.5% of Canadians did not vote for the Liberals or cannabis legalization. – Garth

I dreamed I was taller, younger, richer but thank God I woke up just as I was about to put down my life savings of $200 large on a 3 bedroom shit box in North York… the dream is over, wake up and feel the pain…

which is the very worst thing that can happen. In BC, keeping the dream alive means making promises that cannot be fulfilled. The promises do keep the dream alive. For a while.

Ontario needs to make laws and rules that promote good government and there are two very different streams of thought. The first stream of thought, is to tax a property only on the condition of the property. Not on the condition of the owner. Like living outside the country. Or province. Like living in the property, half of the time.

The second stream of thought is that the the two biggest cities Toronto and Ottawa, need to have the authority and responsibility to plan their cities. Right now they are governed by the Ontario Municipal Board. The CBC documentary “The Condo Game” shows that Toronto City Council cannot control the development of condos because the Ontario Municipal Board basically gives the developers the right to flout Toronto City Council. The net result is no one is responsible. Toronto is left with high density housing without proper services. Individual condo owners will be left with units no one will buy.

In Ottawa, the Ontario Municipal Board has done a lot of damage.

The two streams of thought are contrary and opposing. In the first the province needs to assert its authority over the municipalities. In the second, in the case of Toronto and Ottawa, it needs to delegate it to the two cities.

#103 Trumpocalypse2018 on 06.22.18 at 7:52 am
YOGURT CATASTROPHE BLOCKS HWY 401…
Toronto begins a horrific weekend. The Summer of Hell has truly begun.
______________
Yogurt? That doesn’t bother me. Now if we’d lost a truck full of beer THAT would be a disaster.

I found myself donating to the BC NDP again this morning. Since I have had strong tendency to be a swing voter in the past I have wondered why and in fact I have hardly ever donated to political parties. I think a big reason is that I have become enamoured with their demonstrated courage to take action on the housing file and pipeline. Such a refreshing and stark contrast to Mister socks and Kristy Clark. Someone actually taking ACTION on important matters that may or may not ensure their survival.. but ACTION based on principal. Wow

To 97 just curious,
Mr. turner has been saying for years that the boomers will sell creating a major existodous in housing causing price declines. What everyone forgets is many older people bought and stayed in their homes. Thus if you paid 500,000 for a house and it’s now worth two million and it drops by a million really who cares.
Also one thing to think about is many old people stay in their homes as long as possible. Retirement homes are not as wonderful as you think. So the wrinkled old folks will stay in their homes another 20 or 30 years.
Time will tell, and now with new medical technology I will be 90 and fit and living in my own home.

Hey Everybody! Just hold out not buying a house for a few more years! Old Baby Boomers (Hoarders) are going to try to start cashing out! If you don’t buy their house, they’ll have to drop their price. We have one thing more of than they do, TIME!

————————————–

This will be negated since the Liberals plan to increase immigration significantly, every year going forward that they are in power. I believe they will win again next fall, at least minority to be propped up by the NDP.

“All eight major components [of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)] increased on a year-over-year basis in May, although five of the eight major components grew at a slower rate. The transportation index rose 5.6% in May, following a 4.7% increase in April.

“Energy prices rose 11.6% year over year in May, following a 6.3% increase in April. This growth was led by the gasoline index, which rose 22.9% in the 12 months to May [italics added]. The electricity index (-0.8%) posted a smaller decline on a year-over-year basis in May than in the previous month. Prices for fuel oil and other fuels were up 22.2% in the 12-month period ending in May.

“The all-items excluding energy index increased 1.6% on a year-over-year basis in May after a 1.9% increase in April. The principal factor offsetting the increase in May was a decline in the telephone services index, which fell 7.1% year over year, following a 0.9% decrease in April [italics added]. The traveller accommodation index declined 4.2% in the 12 months to May….”https://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/start

“Hey Everybody! Just hold out not buying a house for a few more years! Old Baby Boomers (Hoarders) are going to try to start cashing out! If you don’t buy their house, they’ll have to drop their price. We have one thing more of than they do, TIME!”
—————————–
Uh…I’m perfectly fine being carried out of my awesome (for me) home, feet first, if that’s what it comes to.

I’m not rich but my modest business gives me control of time (work 25 hrs wk max). Take two southern holidays a year, when I’m not on summer holidays in the Okanagan.

Note: I am a poor boomer, comparatively speaking.

At 54, I’m likely of below, average net worth for peeps my age, do to the fact that my wife and I, are first gen Canadians from europe (old school) and her raising our child, was more important to us, than a full second income for the past 25 years. She now works two days a week, but its more for sanity reasons, than $’s.

You may need to adopt a different approach, as the one your suggesting, is unlikely to work out as you think.

In 2016, 60.5% of Canadians did not vote for the Liberals or cannabis legalization. – Garth

There was no voting on cannabis legalization.
There was no voting on any of the other individual parts of the package that came with the Liberals after they won the election that entitles them to form the government, implement policies and write laws.

You could list literally every single item what the T2 government does while in power and say “in 2016, 60.5% of Canadians did not vote for that”.

You do the same with the Trump government.

People don’t vote directly on each piece of legislation in Canada or in the US.

What’s your point?

Simple: those who say ‘people voted for cannabis’ are wrong. Most did not. – Garth

Everyone toking on weed and drinking booze while going back and forth on hwy. 400. The visual will look like a train wreck with people killed everywhere is what will happen with this new legislation. You know who to thank don’t you! The social and moral structure of this country has been sold out.

As the sprawl increases so do commute times. Housing prices go up and spending money goes down. They work 8 hours, sit in a car for 3 hours and go home to their own private box. Less time with family, less time with friends, and no money to do anything else but pay their bills. They get less sleep and have no time to exercise resulting in their mental faculties slowly deteriorating. In their minds they are doing everything right but have an anger and depression bubbling below the service that they can’t explain.

The points you make rely on the assumption residential real estate equity is wealth. It’s essentially potential wealth that must eventually be crystallized. Until then, it’s shelter (if it’s a principal residence) and has high carrying costs regardless. Real wealth doesn’t just sit idle consuming itself; it spins off usable cash and is highly diversified to control risk.

************************************
Yes, absolutely, THAT is how the vast majority of people think.

Most people will defend ANY tax break (there are so many) that they themselves benefit from and be in favor of any tax increase or tax that they themselves will not pay and they are against any tax increase that they themselves will pay. Not only are they against items that will harm them and for those that will benefit, but they are absolutely convinced of the fairness and logic of their own position which “coincidentally” is in their own financial best interest.

It’s called self interest. It’s pretty well universal.

There is probably a term in psychology for how people adopt views that just so happen to be in their own interest and think they are doing so based on some higher intellectual plane than mere self interest.

So, taxes a la BC that target foreign flows, out of province money, vacant houses are bad. And these have had no impact on the fall in prices because the decline has been driven by rising interest rates, just as the increase was all due to locals bidding the market higher on cheap money. In Ontario, the removal of taxes will drive prices higher and interest rates are irrelevant. Are housing markets caught between the socially engineered ambitions of the BC NDP and the unfettered “free market” aspirations of Doug and the OREA slugs?

Given it appears you disapprove of both of these approaches what is the the correct policy?

Those of you who are Party Members give me your ear. Jaguar the leader has no standing, and needs to find a seat as a sitting member before he can spew the party line. He needs your help, as doesn’t know what to do, so help him find a seat, and not to be confused with buying him a chair at the furniture store. Next he says everything is on the table, but what is there? Lastly, he needs to get the message out, so get him an author to write him a script by telling his audience what they want to hear. If all else fails tell him to resign for a real politician with knowledge and experience who isn’t a buffoon.

“Hey Everybody! Just hold out not buying a house for a few more years! Old Baby Boomers (Hoarders) are going to try to start cashing out! If you don’t buy their house, they’ll have to drop their price. We have one thing more of than they do, TIME!”
—————————–
Uh…I’m perfectly fine being carried out of my awesome (for me) home, feet first, if that’s what it comes to.

I’m not rich but my modest business gives me control of time (work 25 hrs wk max). Take two southern holidays a year, when I’m not on summer holidays in the Okanagan.

Note: I am a poor boomer, comparatively speaking.

At 54, I’m likely of below, average net worth for peeps my age, do to the fact that my wife and I, are first gen Canadians from europe (old school) and her raising our child, was more important to us, than a full second income for the past 25 years. She now works two days a week, but its more for sanity reasons, than $’s.

You may need to adopt a different approach, as the one your suggesting, is unlikely to work out as you think.
______

Yep, if there’s one thing you can bet on – it’s that the old folks don’t like to leave the family home. One usually has to pass away before any moving takes place.

I know one elderly fellow who lost his wife years ago, is now losing his mental capacity himself, and will not leave period.

My maternal grandfather was the same way – almost 90 before he sold the house he bought in the 50’s when he came to Canada, and he never did move into a facility. Died and my parents house at 99.

How many people voted to legalize cannabis?
I don’t think we have the data on that. Please Correct me if I am wrong.
But Marijuana sales recently surpassed liquor.
And what is the total when you include black market?
It’s helping so many people.
Also, many forget the spiritual side of this gift which is a byproduct of the healing; LOVE.

This man needs a reset because is now threatening the EU with a 20% tariff on all their cars coming into the USA, and ” build them here ” he says. Little does his small mind realize that many of the EU carmakers build a large percentage of their vehicles in the USA already. We shall see what happens in Canada, but for those anticipating a car purchase, research what is being built here, and buy one of those instead of anything made in USA.

Hey Everybody! Check out the news on Old People! Your time is coming! Remember when you said you were planning to spend the grandkids inheritance, or that we all just needed to stop spending money on iPhones and avocado toast? Haha! Good thing you voted for Trump and Ford. Those are some compassionate geezers,*rolls eyes*

#138 Love Guru’s Dad on 06.22.18 at 12:29 pm
But Marijuana sales recently surpassed liquor.
And what is the total when you include black market?
**************************
That doesn’t sound true…. Where?
I know a lot of people smoke weed, but all restaurant sales and liquor stores combined are surely selling more, no?

#123 Smoking Man on 06.22.18 at 10:57 am
Whoa!!! Crushing retail data out of Canada.
CAD getting crushed. Warned all of you about T2.. Feeling guilty for making such a massive profit when I was just trying to hedge.
____________________________________________
Whats your point Captain Obvious? I would venture to say we are all unlighted about the current status of our political spectrum. Now go away you smug demoralized alcoholic old, old, old man who has no lust for life. As I told you before since your rich and retired go play with your grandchildren and enjoy the time you have left with them. Now go count your schekels and “Put money in thy purse”

There is a battle raging like never before involving 10 nations, so where is the MSM in this country, the so-called land of the free? The medium is the message so we were told at U of T. Might be some truth in that statement made in the past. Iran is sending battleships into the area now, so lets see what happens next. The end goal is a mystery, but just maybe have figured it out by myself.

Yep, if there’s one thing you can bet on – it’s that the old folks don’t like to leave the family home. One usually has to pass away before any moving takes place.

I know one elderly fellow who lost his wife years ago, is now losing his mental capacity himself, and will not leave period.

—————————————————————-
Was visiting a friend in the hospital over a period of time and in an adjacent bed was an elderly lady that said she had no family and lived by herself. She was clearly “losing it” and the hospital staff were well aware of it. They seemed to have a plan for such people as a caseworker was assessing her. From what I overheard I doubt she would be allowed to live alone again. But I don’t know the outcome …

#134 Shawn Allen on 06.22.18 at 11:53 am
“There is probably a term in psychology for how people adopt views that just so happen to be in their own interest and think they are doing so based on some higher intellectual plane than mere self interest.”

January, 2019
U.S. Federal Reserve -$50 Billion Dollars
European Central Bank + $0 Billion Euros
Net is minus $50 Billion dollars in the global economy and $50 Billion dollars removed every month after that for another couple of years.

All the data that comes out of America is fabricated. They will never have another recession until the FED and central bankers plan one. As for corporations they’ll just keep on re-writing the accounting reporting rules to make it look like corporations are increasing profits.

The views expressed are those of the author, Garth Turner, a Raymond James Financial Advisor, and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd. It is provided as a general source of information only and should not be considered to be personal investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Investors considering any investment should consult with their Investment Advisor to ensure that it is suitable for the investor's circumstances and risk tolerance before making any investment decision. The information contained in this blog was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete. Raymond James Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.