All Policy is Local: Education in the Governor's races

With help from Caitlin Emma, Allie Grasgreen, Maggie Severns and Nirvi Shah

All Policy is Local: Education, examining how education policy issues are affecting the 2014 midterm elections. For more out of this series, go to http://politi.co/1i9oygX.

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GOOD MORNING! Welcome to the first installment of our monthly edu-lection newsletter, a new feature of our POLITICO series "All Policy is Local: Education." Over the next five months, we'll keep you in the know on all the ways education plays out in key races at the local, state and federal levels. We've got a full slate of stories planned, too, so check in often at the series home page for updates: http://politico.pro/SQHp9R. You might also want to bookmark the POLITICO Polling Center, which tracks the latest in races across the country: http://politi.co/1lOM3kb.

This month, we're going to take a close look at the governor's races. We've already seen nasty nicknames flying, attack ads airing, money pouring in...and cute kids being used as backdrops in TV spots. In other words: Buckle up.

OUR FIRST STOP: PENNSYLVANIA, where polls show Republican Gov. Tom Corbett is in trouble - and unions smell blood. The American Federation of Teachers and its local affiliates have been relentless in attacking Corbett all spring and a senior AFT official told us this race is their No. 1 target for the fall.

- Education polls as a top issue for Pennsylvania voters and unions see it as a huge vulnerability for Corbett. They accuse him of slashing $1 billion in education spending to pay for a tax cut and point to districts across the state that have laid off teachers, increased class sizes, eliminated full-day kindergarten and more. Democratic challenger Tom Wolf has put forth a detailed education agenda [ http://bit.ly/1llmers and also http://bit.ly/1q9aFF8 ] that draws sharp contrasts with Corbett. In the K-12 arena, he wants to crack down on the state's low-performing online charter schools. In higher ed, he'd like to offer in-state tuition and extensive support for veterans at state colleges and universities. Wolf also wants to build partnerships with the private sector to provide more financial aid and counseling for low-income and first-generation college students.

- Corbett rejects the slam that he's cut funding. On the contrary, he notes that Pennsylvania is spending more than ever on basic education. (His opponents say that's because the total sum includes mandatory state contributions to the underfunded teacher pension plan - money that technically supports education but doesn't go into the classroom.) Corbett's campaign has sought to win over parents by reminding them - in this video [ http://bit.ly/1m58V02 ] and others - that the silver-haired governor used to work as a public school teacher (for one year, before he went to law school). Corbett has also proposed a big jump in education funding in the coming budget, including $25 million for college scholarships for the middle class.

HEADING TO THE HEARTLAND: Teachers unions are desperate to roll back the red wave that brought the GOP to power in so many states in 2010. In particular, they'd dearly love to unseat Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, both of whom enacted laws that severely crimped the strength of public-sector unions.

- In Wisconsin, Democratic challenger Mary Burke is playing up her education background: She sits on the Madison school board and helped launch a successful college-prep program for low-income teens. Like Wolf in Pennsylvania, Burke has deep pockets - her family founded Trek Bicycles - and the advantage of running as a fresh face, not a career politician. But her lack of experience has also tripped her up: Her first ad falsely claimed [ http://bit.ly/1fdKSmP ] that unemployment rose during Walker's term, prompting the governor to question her integrity. In the education sphere, Burke and Walker have clashed most directly over vouchers. He wants to expand the program by giving more families public funds to pay private-school tuition. She emphatically does not. Polls are tight; this race could be a squeaker.

- In Michigan, the Democratic Governors Association has spent millions on ads backing challenger Mark Schauer. In one, Schauer talks [ http://bit.ly/1lshBgR], about his father's job as a science teacher and plugs his own support for early childhood education and lower interest rates on student loans. In another, he picks up the same attack line that the Democrats are using in Pennsylvania: He accuses Snyder [ http://bit.ly/1q48baS ] of cutting $1 billion in education funding. Snyder, like his counterpart in Pennsylvania, has dismissed [ http://bit.ly/1p8kOC9] that figure as inaccurate. The governor drew cheers from the higher education community earlier this year with his proposal [ http://on.freep.com/1pdBsi2] to increase higher education spending by 6.1 percent - on condition that state colleges and universities put a lid on tuition hikes. Snyder is up in several polls by a fair margin, but Dems are holding out hope he'll stumble.

- In Arkansas, Republican Asa Hutchinson has drawn opposition from community college leaders with his plan to redirect $34 million from their budgets to specific workforce training programs. Mostly, though, Hutchinson has focused on economic issues rather than education (though his latest ad [ http://bit.ly/1yeUavS ] did feature a passel of cute kindergartners). His challenger for the open gubernatorial seat, Democrat Mike Ross, has tried to break through by pledging to be the "education governor." He wants to hike funding for pre-K by $37 million over a decade, for instance. In early polling, Hutchinson has the edge.

- Ohio Gov. John Kasich seems firmly in command of his race. He has hugely outraised his opponent, Democrat Ed FitzGerald, and has a solid lead in polls. Unions have been FitzGerald's lifeline: Organized labor donated nearly a quarter of the $836,000 he raised in the last fundraising period. But unions are unlikely to pump big money into the race unless polls tighten.

AND WHAT OF ILLINOIS? The Land of Lincoln has a Democratic incumbent, Gov. Pat Quinn - but he is not well liked by the teachers unions, to put it mildly. How has he angered them? Let us count the ways: He cut teacher retirement benefits when he signed a pension reform bill. (Unions are suing [ http://huff.to/1il8Zba] to overturn it.) He approved a Chicago plan to reduce benefits for public-sector workers. And he tapped Paul Vallas, an education reformer who has clashed with unions in several states, to be his running mate [ http://bit.ly/1njKDMF].

- Quinn does have one thing going for him with Big Labor: He's not Bruce Rauner. The Republican challenger is even more widely disliked in union halls. Rauner supports vouchers, ardently backs charter schools and has called for merit pay, which many teachers oppose. His education philosophy, in a nutshell [ http://bit.ly/1iezoHU]: "More control for parents, not union bosses." There's also this: Rauner has taken to calling the sitting governor "Quinnochio," as in liar [ http://cbsloc.al/1nPujVJ].

- The Illinois Education Association's PAC has interviewed both candidates and the board will issue its endorsement in the coming weeks. Observers expect the union to set aside its grudge and make a significant push for Quinn, who has rolled out some proposals educators like, such as a call for $50 million in new spending for need-based college scholarships. The governor could certainly use the help: Rauner has spent millions of his own money on the race and just landed a $2.5 million donation from hedge-fund manager Ken Griffin. That's the biggest single political contribution to a candidate in state history. Polls have Rauner ahead, but with a big chunk of voters undecided.

ON THE QUIRKY SIDE: SPOILER ALERT? The battle for the Connecticut governor's mansion could be a doozy. Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy is running for re-election. It looks like he will face off against Republican Tom Foley, in a rematch of their 2010 race. Polls show it's neck-and-neck. The smaller of two teachers unions in the state, the AFT affiliate, has thrown its support to Malloy, despite lingering anger over snide remarks the governor made about tenure a few years back [ http://bit.ly/1iakZfS]. But there's a complication: Liberal blogger Jonathan Pelto [ http://bit.ly/1q9KIoX] is collecting signatures for a third-party run. His platform is heavy on education: Repeal the Common Core, curb support for charter schools, pump up funding for K-12 and higher education. He has support from some AFT members furious that their union has backed Malloy. The state affiliate of the NEA has not made an endorsement.

- In a close race, could Pelto play the spoiler? He would love to: "We want to try to deliver a message, in Connecticut and across the country, that when [politicians] walk away from public education, there are significant and severe repercussions," Pelto said.

- In New York, meanwhile, Zephyr Teachout, an associate law professor at Fordham University, has launched a long-shot bid to get on the ballot. Her campaign, like Pelto's, is fueled by anger over education reform policies, including Gov. Andrew Cuomo's support for charter schools. Teachout's political philosophy comes through in the title of this recent piece [ http://politi.co/1phlSUr] she wrote for POLITICO Magazine: "Why New York isn't blue enough. And what I'd do to fix it."

AND NOW, TO FLORIDA! Elections in the Sunshine State are always full of twists and turns and this one is already rollicking. Republican Gov. Rick Scott is expected to face off against former Gov. Charlie Crist, who left the GOP in 2010 and is favored to win the Democratic nomination - though he first must defeat longtime state lawmaker Nan Rich, who hails from a liberal slice of South Florida.

- Crist served as state education commissioner under then-Gov. Jeb Bush and is so intent on making education a defining issue this year that he asked a Tallahassee middle school teacher to submit his official filing papers this week. Crist has support from the Florida Education Association. The union says it appreciates that as governor, he vetoed a bill that would have abolished teacher tenure and tied evaluations to test scores [ http://bit.ly/1vH4FWy]. Scott, by contrast, signed a bill that eliminated some of teachers' job protections.

- Scott isn't ceding the education vote. A recent ad [ http://bit.ly/1nNvyoc] touts his signing of a bill that lowers college tuition rates in the state. This month, Scott also quietly signed a bill allowing undocumented students to pay in-state tuition. [ http://bit.ly/1igoImN]. Now he's under pressure from all sides over a bill that would expand the state's K-12 voucher program. He has until June 28 to decide.

- Early on in his term, courting tea party support, Scott called for steep cuts to the state budget, including slicing about $1 billion from K-12 and higher education. The Republican-led legislature largely backed his plan, but a year later, Scott endorsed additional spending on education. "On this point, I just cannot budge," he said in his 2012 state of the state address. "This is the single most important decision we can make today for Florida's future.' Funding has been restored, but it's still lower than pre-recession levels. [ http://bit.ly/M4Kpwf ] Democrats are also quick to note the governor also cut state scholarships for high-performing students. [ http://hrld.us/SSYoIO]

- Crist hasn't run any television ads, presumably saving his cash for closer to Election Day, and has said he wants to spend $50 million. Scott has spent an unheard of $12 million on TV ads already - and he has said he wants to spend $100 million on the race. (He's not there yet on the fundraising front, though. He's raised about $18 million [ http://bit.ly/1lBJ4v7] and his Let's Get to Work committee [ http://bit.ly/1oCCGrg] has raised about $28 million.)

FINALLY, A 10-GALLON CURVE BALL: A senior official with the AFT told us to watch for heavy investment from unions this summer in - of all places - Texas. Democrat Wendy Davis is a long shot for governor against Attorney General Greg Abbott. But unions are thrilled that she's taken such a strong stance [ http://bit.ly/1uBnBDJ ] in support of public education. She's called for reducing the focus on standardized testing, expanding pre-K, giving more kids access to college courses in high school and offering top students incentives to go into teaching. On the campaign trail, Davis also talks up her effort to filibuster $5 billion in education cuts in 2011. Even if Davis can't win, AFT strategists hope an investment now will pay dividends in years to come if Democrats can build an energetic voter base that might slowly shift Texas from red to purple.

THE BIG PICTURE: Democrats see Pennsylvania, Florida and possibly Wisconsin or Michigan as their best chance to win back a few statehouses. Republicans are looking to bump the Ds out of power in Connecticut, Arkansas, Illinois and potentially Massachusetts and New Hampshire.

We end with dueling soundbites:

From AFT President Randi Weingarten: "We need leaders who are going to fight for all families and communities to have economic opportunity and great public schools, not just for the wealthy few. After the devastation many communities have experienced as a result of the recession; the 2010 election results that put governors like Tom Corbett, Scott Walker and Rick Scott into office; and the sweeping Supreme Court decisions that will allow unprecedented amounts of money to influence elections, we have our work cut out for us in 2014."

From Billy Pitman, a spokesman for Gov. Corbett: "The governor shares the belief that how we're investing our education dollars is important. He's going to continue to focus on that. If the unions would come to the table, give us [their target for education spending] and say how they want to get there...rather than spending millions of dollars putting out false information about the governor's record.... this would be a different type of discussion."

CORRECTION: Corrected by: Nick Gass @ 07/21/2014 03:07 PM
CORRECTION: A previous version of this story did not make clear that the larger of two teachers unions in Connecticut has not yet endorsed any candidate for governor.