Heads I win, tails you lose

Commentary: Where's the Super Bowl indicator when we need it?

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- The stock market needs all the help it can get right now, of course.

And the so-called Super Bowl indicator tried mightily to help: It was set to flash a bullish signal regardless of which team won on Sunday.

But, alas, even so venerable a market timing indicator as this one appears unable to keep the stock market from declining. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA, -1.05%
was more than 100 points in the hole early during Monday's session.

The Super Bowl indicator, of course, which became popular in the late 1970s and early 1980s, held that the stock market does well in years following Super Bowl wins by teams that trace their roots back to the original National Football League -- and poorly if the winning team's roots are in the old American Football League.

The reason that this doesn't translate into a bearish forecast this time around is that most devotees of the Super Bowl indicator have for years made an exception of the Pittsburgh Steelers. No doubt, this exception was made because Pittsburgh has won so many Super Bowls over the years; without the exception, the Super Bowl indicator's track record is a lot more mediocre.

As a result, the Super Bowl indicator would have been equally bullish for 2009 even if the Arizona Cardinals had been able to pull off the upset that, up until the last minute, it looked like they might.

Actually, of course, we shouldn't have been surprised by the stock market's weakness Monday morning: The statistical foundation of the Super Bowl Indicator is very weak indeed. (Read year-ago column on subject.)

Just remember the year-ago Super Bowl, in which the New York Giants pulled off an upset victory in the final minute of play, which meant that the Super Bowl indicator flashed a buy signal.

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