Midterm Calculus

Democrats Have Advantage on Issues, but It Won’t Save Them in November

Democrats know they face a difficult midterm campaign landscape, but they can cling to one seeming reason for hope: The public agrees with them more than with Republicans on the issues.

More Americans say they trust Democrats than Republicans on the “main problems the nation faces over the next few years” as well as a number of key policy issues, including the economy, health care and immigration. Members of the public also typically indicate that Democrats are closer to their opinion than Republicans on specific issues like abortion, same-sex marriage and raising the minimum wage.

This apparent political advantage is less important than it might seem, however. For instance, Democrats had greater advantages on several major issues at comparable points in the 1994 and 2010 electoral cycles, which both resulted in Republican landslides.

Agreeing With Democrats, but Not Voting for Them

Voters say they trust Democrats more than Republicans on a variety of issues, but they had similar views in both 1994 and 2010, when Republicans won big victories.

Which party do you trust to do a better job dealing with ...

... the main problems the nation faces?

... the economy?

... health care?

Democrats

Neither/both

Republicans

Democrats

Neither/both

Republicans

Democrats

Neither/both

Republicans

1994

2010

2014

46%

22

32

46

22

32

40

26

34

1994

2010

2014

47%

17

36

44

20

36

41

21

38

1994

2010

2014

58%

20

22

47

19

34

43

22

35

Which party do you trust to do a better job dealing with ...

... the main problems the nation faces?

... the economy?

... health care?

Democrats

Other

Republicans

Democrats

Other

Republicans

Democrats

Other

Republicans

1994

2010

2014

46%

22

32

46

22

32

40

26

34

1994

2010

2014

47%

17

36

44

20

36

41

21

38

1994

2010

2014

58%

20

22

47

19

34

43

22

35

Source: ABC/Washington Post, Roper Center for Public Opinion Research

In those previous elections, Democrats’ lead on these questions was also seen as an advantage for the party. The lead sentence by the Washington Post’s Dan Balz in an article on a 1994 poll noted that “Americans say they have more confidence in Democrats than Republicans to handle the country’s biggest problems.”

The article added that, in combination with President Clinton’s high approval ratings, “the findings provide gloomy news for Republicans.” Similarly, a 2010 article, while cast in a more negative light for the Democrats and Obama (“the most anti-incumbent electorate since 1994”), portrayed the Democrats’ issue advantage as among the “positive signs” for the party.

Why haven’t these issue advantages translated into electoral success? First, the midterm electorate is not representative of the American public. The public’s preferences for Democrats on the issues may diminish or disappear once you look at registered voters or those who claim they are “absolutely certain” to vote, as Jaime Fuller of The Washington Post has noted. The Democrats’ edge on the issues is likely to dissipate further among the older, whiter group of Americans most likely to vote in November.

In addition, the importance of the issues in congressional elections is typically overstated. Structuralfactors like presidential approval, the state of the economy, the type of election (midterm or presidential year) and the composition of the seats that are up for election tend to matter more.

None of this is to say that the public’s policy preferences are irrelevant — Democrats would presumably be worse off if the public preferred Republicans on the issues. But their advantage on these questions shouldn’t offer much reassurance. It didn’t save them in 1994 or 2010 and most likely will not in November either.