Now that we know all the nominations, it’s time to put together the list of all movies. Instead of just sorting by number of nominations, I like to group them by their “highest” nominated category. This helps me prioritize as I’m trying to complete the Oscars Death Race (watching all movies in all categories!) each year.

The actual Oscar nominations were announced earlier this week. It’s always interesting to see which movies were snubbed and which ones received surprise nominations, so I’ve annotated the predictions data from my previous post with this information.

All movies that actually received nominations are now in bold. In eight (!) categories this year, there were movies or people nominated that no one originally predicted - those are indicated below each category.

Remember, this data was originally compiled a month before the nominations were announced - a lot can change in that time!

As I have for the past 2 years, I made a list of the movies that might be nominated at the Oscars this year so I could try to watch as many of them in theaters as possible (thank you, MoviePass and AMC A-List!).

Like 2017 and 2018, I used odds data from Gold Derby to determine the movies that have a realistic chance of being nomninated in each category. Then I made a big list of all overall movies, sorted by most likely to be nominated to least.

Thanks to last year’s list giving me a jumpstart, I fully completed the Oscars Death Race - watching every movie nominated in every category - for the first time! So maybe the list below will be helpful for anyone else who would like to do the same.

Sort by category

Here’s Gold Derby’s data for all 24 Oscar categories. I downloaded the data on Dec 23 and calculated the “points” for each category using a simple implied probability conversion from fractional odds to decimal points.

Like the past 2 years, I omitted every movie with 0 experts predicting a nomination or win, so only movies that someone thinks might actually be nominated are included.

Columns:

NOM = The number of experts who believe a film will be nominated for that award.

Best Live Action Short

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Marguerite

9

1

19/5

20.83

2

Caroline

8

6

4/1

20.00

3

Icare

7

1

11/2

15.38

4

Skin

7

0

6/1

14.29

5

Detainment

7

0

6/1

14.29

6

Fauve

3

0

15/1

6.25

7

May Day

2

0

22/1

4.35

8

Chuchotage

1

1

37/1

2.63

9

Mother

1

0

48/1

2.04

Final List

In past years, I composed the final list of only English feature-length films (no foreign films, no documentaries, no shorts). But this year, some of the foreign films are up in other categories (Roma, Cold War) and many of the documentaries actually played in mainstream theaters nationwide (RBG, Free Solo, Won’t You Be My Neighbor, etc). So for this year’s list, I’ve included all movies except short films.

Altogether, that makes 79 unique movies that may be nominated for an Oscar. A Star is Born is in the lead, but it’s not that far ahead of many other very good movies.

(I know they’re longshots, but I’ll be rooting for Leave No Trace, Eighth Grade, Beautiful Boy, and A Private War!)

For anyone else attempting the Oscars Death Race (watching every movie nominated in every category!), I’ve again made a list of all movies and grouped them by their highest category. This way, it’s a little easier to see which “major” movies you have yet to watch and which other movies you still need to see.1

“Major” categories

9 movies nominated in Best Picture (with 55 total nominations between them!):

Of the 34 feature-length English films nominated (AKA everything but the docs/shorts/foreign categories), I’ve managed to watch all but 3 so far: Mudbound (a Netflix original, but I’m hoping they re-release it in theaters now), The Breadwinner (foreign animated movie that I apparently missed in November), and…The Boss Baby (really?!). ↩︎

Now that the Oscar nominations were officially announced today, I think it’s fun to look back at the predicted nominees and see which expected films made the cut. And more interestingly, which movies got snubbed or jumped in the rankings!

Last year, I downloaded the predictions from Gold Derby in November, two months before the nominations were announced - so it wasn’t surprising that some categories were wildly off. But this time, even the best experts’ predictions a few days ago had some surprising omissions. Some movies that no one thought would get nominated made it!

Here’s the same list of predictions as before, but with actual nominees bolded or listed below…

A year ago, I made a list of every movie contending for an Oscar so I could watch as many as I could in theaters. And it worked! I watched lots of movies I might have otherwise skipped. And by Oscar night, I’d seen every nominated movie but one!1

I know the official nominees will be announced soon, but I find this stuff fascinating anyways. It’s always interesting to see how many of the actual nominees the experts predict correctly!

I again used odds data from Gold Derby’s experts to calculate “points” for each movie with a chance of earning a nomination. This time, I didn’t make the mistake of trying to actually calculate the data in Markdown tables this time. Who would’ve guessed that actual spreadsheet software would be better for doing lots of calculations? :-D

If you’re curious about the exact methodology I used, you can read my post from last year. Otherwise, let’s move on to the (hopeful) nominees!

Sort by category

Here’s Gold Derby’s data for all 24 Oscar categories. I downloaded the data on 1/20 and calculated the “points” for each category using a simple implied probability conversion from fractional odds to decimal points.

Like last year, I omitted every movie with 0 experts predicting a nomination or win, so only movies that someone thinks might actually be nominated are included.

Columns:

NOM = The number of experts who believe a film will be nominated for that award.

WIN = The number of experts who believe a film will win for that award.

Final List

And now, the final list! Interestingly enough, some of the movies with the most aggregate points are not strong contenders for Best Picture this year. So much like Jackie last year, they are “punching above their weight” due to strong contention for technical awards.

Notably, this is a list of English feature-length films (i.e. movies generally available in US theaters). So it does not include documentaries, foreign films, or any of the short films.

Num

Points

Movie

Categories (Pts/Cat)

1.

235.77 pts

The Shape of Water

14 (16.84)

2.

231.05 pts

Dunkirk

10 (23.11)

3.

136.12 pts

Blade Runner 2049

9 (15.12)

4.

128.78 pts

Darkest Hour

11 (11.71)

5.

124.98 pts

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

9 (13.89)

6.

116.50 pts

Call Me By Your Name

9 (12.94)

7.

107.03 pts

Lady Bird

6 (17.84)

8.

79.89 pts

Phantom Thread

7 (11.41)

9.

78.80 pts

Coco

3 (26.27)

10.

77.11 pts

Get Out

6 (12.85)

11.

53.42 pts

I, Tonya

6 (8.90)

12.

53.04 pts

The Post

9 (5.89)

13.

46.37 pts

War for the Planet of the Apes

5 (9.27)

14.

45.73 pts

Beauty and the Beast

5 (9.15)

15.

43.63 pts

Mudbound

6 (7.27)

16.

41.35 pts

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4 (10.34)

17.

39.62 pts

The Greatest Showman

4 (9.90)

18.

31.65 pts

The Florida Project

3 (10.55)

19.

27.47 pts

Baby Driver

3 (9.16)

20.

26.11 pts

The Big Sick

4 (6.53)

21.

24.48 pts

The Disaster Artist

2 (12.24)

22.

21.01 pts

Wonder

2 (10.51)

23.

19.15 pts

Molly’s Game

3 (6.38)

24.

18.18 pts

The Breadwinner

1 (18.18)

25.

18.18 pts

Loving Vincent

1 (18.18)

26.

17.66 pts

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

2 (8.83)

27.

11.76 pts

The Lego Batman Movie

1 (11.76)

28.

8.88 pts

Wonder Woman

7 (1.27)

29.

8.65 pts

All the Money in the World

3 (2.88)

30.

7.69 pts

Ferdinand

1 (7.69)

31.

6.67 pts

Marshall

1 (6.67)

32.

6.66 pts

Victoria and Abdul

4 (1.67)

33.

4.44 pts

Downsizing

2 (2.22)

34.

3.67 pts

The Beguiled

2 (1.84)

35.

2.97 pts

Wonderstruck

3 (0.99)

36.

2.44 pts

Logan

1 (2.44)

37.

2.44 pts

Mary and the Witch’s Flower

1 (2.44)

38.

1.98 pts

Wonder Wheel

2 (0.99)

39.

1.49 pts

Murder on the Orient Express

1 (1.49)

40.

1.49 pts

Girls Trip

1 (1.49)

41.

1.23 pts

The Promise

1 (1.23)

42.

0.99 pts

Battle of the Sexes

1 (0.99)

43.

0.99 pts

Mother!

1 (0.99)

44.

0.99 pts

Roman J. Israel, Esq.

1 (0.99)

45.

0.99 pts

Okja

1 (0.99)

46.

0.99 pts

Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

1 (0.99)

47.

0.99 pts

Stronger

1 (0.99)

48.

0.99 pts

Novitiate

1 (0.99)

49.

0.99 pts

Captain Underpants

1 (0.99)

50.

0.99 pts

Despicable Me 3

1 (0.99)

51.

0.99 pts

Split

1 (0.99)

52.

0.99 pts

Cries From Syria

1 (0.99)

53.

0.99 pts

Fifty Shades Darker

1 (0.99)

54.

0.99 pts

Boss Baby

1 (0.99)

55.

0.99 pts

In This Corner of The World

1 (0.99)

The only movie I missed: the 8-hour OJ Simpson documentary. But you better believe I’m going to complete the Oscars Death Race this year! ↩︎

This year is different. For the first time in all the years I’ve been making these wish lists, I don’t feel compelled to note many new features that I want in iOS.

Instead, I have grievances. It feels like Apple has taken its eye off the ball and is falling further and further behind its competitors. Google’s machine learning has rapidly evolved and is becoming a serious competitive advantage. Amazon is killing it with its Echo speakers and voice recognition in general. And Microsoft – Microsoft! – is becoming a paragon of software and hardware design.

Why has thou strayed so, Apple?

In fact, about 6 months ago, I bought my first Android device. It’s a budget 6” behemoth, it’s kinda slow, and the default fonts are weird – but I still really like it (if nothing else, it’s convinced me that my next phone is going to have the biggest screen possible!).

The only reason I could even think about doing that is because I’ve been straying further and further from Apple’s native apps. (Don’t get me started on all the bugs the Photos app has given me!) It turns out Google’s apps are really, really good. I’ll have more to write about that soon, but suffice it to say that Apple really needs to knock it out of the park at WWDC this year for folks like me to even think about trusting Apple’s apps and services again.

Now, with all that said, let’s move on to what I’m hoping to see in iOS 11 this year…

Picture-in-Picture on iPhone

It was my first wish list item last year, and it’s my first wish list item again this year. If you’re going to abandon the iPad Mini (*weeps*), then at least let us watch videos while multitasking on our large-screen iPhones.

iPads have PIP. The newly-unveiled Android O has PIP. Time to add it to phones too, Apple!

Reset native apps

One feature I’ve really grown to like in using Google’s iPhone apps is that if anything goes wrong – bug in my data, aggressive caching by mistake, etc – I can just delete the app, install it again, and it’ll download my data from the cloud.

Compare to Apple’s native apps. I pay for 200GB of iCloud storage so I can use iCloud Photo Library. But it was taking up too much space on my 16GB iPad, so I turned off the feature a while back. But today, even though my iPad has 0 photos on it, the Photos app is still using 1.8GB of my 12GB of usable space. I’ve tried EVERYTHING short of resetting the device to free up that space. Nothing works. When Google Photos started taking up too much space on my phone, I just deleted the app for a couple weeks. When I reinstalled it a few weeks later, I was right back to where I was.

It would be SO nice if I could “refresh” all of the app data for Apple’s native apps without resetting my entire device. They started letting you delete 1st-party apps with iOS 10, I’m hoping they go a step further with iOS 11 and make the native apps truly modular.

Cross-platform app purchases

I can buy an iOS app from iTunes on a computer. But why can’t I buy a MacOS app from the App Store on an iOS device? Heck, why can’t I even view the Mac App Store listing for any app from an iOS device? (It was only once I dipped my toe into the Android ecosystem that I realized just how backwards a lot of Apple services are.)

iPad: Don’t let incoming calls take over screen when playing live video!

Seriously, this is insane. I was watching the NBA finals tonight and someone called me. Because of Apple’s Continuity features, it also rang on my iPad. Except, just like how an incoming call on an iPhone takes over the whole screen, it also took over my iPad screen, interrupting my live stream of the game. I use my iPad as a portable TV of sorts, especially for watching sports, and it is maddening if I forget to turn on Do Not Disturb on my iPad. WHY, Apple, WHY?

Incoming calls shouldn’t take over the entire screen on your phone, and they certainly shouldn’t take over your whole iPad screen. ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU’RE STREAMING A LIVE VIDEO.

Record voice and FaceTime calls

I’m not a podcaster, but I’ve read plenty about how frustrating it is for them to have to juggle using Skype just to have the ability to record a conversation. But the fact of the matter is that it would be great for everyone if we could record calls, especially FaceTime calls.

Video calls with family and friends are more than calls - they’re often memories. I use FaceTime to have meaningful conversations with distant relatives and I often wish I could do more than take a low-resolution screenshot to remember the moment.

In fact, my Mom has a 10+ minute video she recorded using the camera on her phone…of my sister FaceTiming us from another country while on vacation. Seriously, my mom used her phone’s camera just to record everything my sister was showing us on my phone, all because Apple can’t be bothered to add proper screen recording.

PS. How about group calling, while you’re at it?

3rd-party keyboards working properly

I tried a bunch of 3rd-party keyboards when they debuted in iOS 8, but I never stuck with any of them. Mostly because I thought they weren’t programmed well and would crash often, defaulting back the native keyboard. Well, 3 years later, and I’m still seeing the same crashes. So maybe it wasn’t the apps…

Lately, I’ve beeen using GBoard, which has an excellent swipe keyboard and integrated GIF features. It crashes a lot less than any other 3rd-party keyboard I’ve used (I’m looking at you, SwiftKey!), but still too much to be entirely comfortable with it.

Just fix it, Apple. FIX IT.

Open in 3rd-party apps properly

Why, when I come across a Twitter link in another app, do I have to long-press on the link and click on ‘Open in Safari’ to get it to open in the Twitter app? It’s the same for YouTube videos too.

In fact, it’s downright aggravating trying to get links to open properly in native apps. It’s great that apps can tell the operating system to open links in their app natively, not in the browser. But as a user, I want the CHOICE. Sometimes I just want to quickly preview a tweet in the browser, without opening the Twitter app and losing my place in the timeline from a few minutes ago. Or sometimes I was already watching a YouTube video, switched to another app for a moment and clicked on a link, and now I’ve lost the original video I was watching.

At a minimum, fix the ‘Open in Safari’ button to properly reflect the app that is going to open instead. Seriously, this is amateur hour, Apple.

Improved default video player

It boggles my mind that after 10 years, the default video player is little-changed…and STILL doesn’t have a ‘skip back 10 seconds’ button! Seriously, this is table stakes for any 3rd-party app that plays videos.

Netflix has a button in the bottom left. Amazon’s video app lets you swipe left anywhere on the screen. But I think I like YouTube’s implementation most of all, just a simple double-tap on the left side of the screen.

Pick one. Any one. Just add this to the video player, Apple. And while you’re at it, how about fixing that awful volume changing HUD you implemented in iOS 7?

The Oscar nominees were announced last week and…my checklist actually worked! I was able to watch almost every major movie nominated while still in theaters, which was my main goal. And even the couple I missed, I was able to watch at home before the nominations were announced.1

Now, I’m going to try to see just how many of the foreign films and documentaries and short films I can watch before the awards ceremony. If it helps anyone else, I made a list of all the movies and grouped them by their highest-nominated category.

(I was also curious about how closely the experts’ predictions matched up with the actual nominees, so I’ve compared them in the last section below!)

“Major” categories

9 movies nominated in Best Picture (with 59 total nominations between them!):

By the numbers

There are 24 Oscar categories, with 5 nominees in almost every category (Best Picture has 9 nominees, Makeup & Hairstyling has 3 nominees). That means 122 total nominations. Altogether, there are 47 feature-length films and 15 short films nominated.

Of the 47 feature-length films, if you group them by their highest-nominated category, you’re looking at…

How accurate were the experts?

While I was making this list, I started comparing it to the experts’ predictions I compiled in my last 2 posts. How many categories did they get exactly right? (Just one!) Did they miss any nominations entirely? (Yes!) Did they miss every nomination in any category entirely? (Yep!)

Anyways, I thought it was just kinda fun to look back at the predictions, so I’ve copied the original lists by category below and bolded the actual nominees. Remember, these predictions are from late November, before some of the movies were even released.

(Quick reminder about the columns: NOM is how many experts thought that movie would be nominated, WIN is how many experts thought it would win the category, ODDS are Gold Derby’s odds, and PTS is a simple inversion of the odds.)

Best Picture

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

La La Land

26

22

9/2

22.22

2

Manchester by the Sea

26

4

13/2

15.38

3

Moonlight

26

0

9/1

11.11

4

Fences

25

0

9/1

11.11

5

Loving

22

1

12/1

8.33

6

Silence

21

0

14/1

7.14

7

Lion

20

0

14/1

7.14

8

Jackie

18

0

16/1

6.25

9

Arrival

15

0

20/1

5.00

10

Sully

14

0

28/1

3.57

11

Hidden Figures

10

0

33/1

3.03

12

Hell or High Water

6

0

50/1

2.00

13

Hacksaw Ridge

7

0

66/1

1.52

14

A Monster Calls

2

0

100/1

1.00

15

Nocturnal Animals

4

0

100/1

1.00

16

Patriot’s Day

1

0

100/1

1.00

17

The Birth of a Nation

4

0

100/1

1.00

18

20th Century Women

1

0

100/1

1.00

19

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

2

0

100/1

1.00

20

Passengers

1

0

100/1

1.00

21

Live By Night

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Director

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

La La Land (Damien Chazelle)

26

22

17/10

58.82

2

Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)

26

4

4/1

25.00

3

Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)

23

0

6/1

16.67

4

Silence (Martin Scorsese)

14

0

12/1

8.33

5

Fences (Denzel Washington)

14

1

12/1

8.33

6

Jackie (Pablo Larrain)

7

0

33/1

3.03

7

Loving (Jeff Nichols)

5

0

40/1

2.50

8

Arrival (Denis Villeneuve)

4

0

66/1

1.52

9

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Ang Lee)

2

0

80/1

1.25

10

Lion (Garth Davis)

2

0

80/1

1.25

11

Hidden Figures (Theodore Melfi)

1

0

100/1

1.00

12

Passengers (Morten Tyldum)

1

0

100/1

1.00

13

Sully (Clint Eastwood)

1

0

100/1

1.00

14

Hacksaw Ridge (Mel Gibson)

1

0

100/1

1.00

36

Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Actor

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Manchester by the Sea (Casey Affleck)

26

17

2/1

50.00

2

Fences (Denzel Washington)

24

10

14/5

35.71

3

La La Land (Ryan Gosling)

22

0

13/2

15.38

4

Loving (Joel Edgerton)

17

0

9/1

11.11

5

Sully (Tom Hanks)

14

0

14/1

7.14

6

Captain Fantastic (Viggo Mortensen)

5

0

40/1

2.50

7

Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Garfield)

6

0

40/1

2.50

8

The Founder (Michael Keaton)

3

0

66/1

1.52

9

Silence (Andrew Garfield)

3

0

80/1

1.25

10

Rules Don’t Apply (Warren Beatty)

2

0

100/1

1.00

11

Nocturnal Animals (Jake Gyllenhaal)

2

0

100/1

1.00

12

The Birth of a Nation (Nate Parker)

2

0

100/1

1.00

13

Gold (Matthew McConaughey)

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Actress

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

La La Land (Emma Stone)

26

17

21/10

47.62

2

Jackie (Natalie Portman)

25

6

7/2

28.57

3

Loving (Ruth Negga)

23

2

6/1

16.67

4

20th Century Women (Annette Bening)

20

1

7/1

14.29

5

Arrival (Amy Adams)

15

0

14/1

7.14

6

Hidden Figures (Taraji P. Henson)

4

1

25/1

4.00

7

Miss Sloane (Jessica Chastain)

5

0

40/1

2.50

8

Florence Foster Jenkins (Meryl Streep)

4

0

50/1

2.00

9

Elle (Isabelle Huppert)

4

0

66/1

1.52

10

Fences (Viola Davis)

1

0

100/1

1.00

11

Passengers (Jennifer Lawrence)

1

0

100/1

1.00

12

Nocturnal Animals (Amy Adams)

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Supporting Actor

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Moonlight (Mahershala Ali)

24

13

12/5

41.67

2

Manchester by the Sea (Lucas Hedges)

22

4

9/2

22.22

3

Hell or High Water (Jeff Bridges)

18

2

13/2

15.38

4

Lion (Dev Patel)

14

3

9/1

11.11

5

Nocturnal Animals (Michael Shannon)

14

3

9/1

11.11

6

Silence (Liam Neeson)

10

2

12/1

8.33

7

Fences (Stephen Henderson)

5

0

50/1

2.00

8

Florence Foster Jenkins (Hugh Grant)

6

0

50/1

2.00

9

Fences (Jovan Adepo)

4

0

50/1

2.00

10

Denial (Timothy Spall)

2

0

66/1

1.52

11

Bleed for This (Aaron Eckhart)

2

0

100/1

1.00

12

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Steve Martin)

1

0

100/1

1.00

13

Hell or High Water (Ben Foster)

1

0

100/1

1.00

14

Hidden Figures (Kevin Costner)

1

0

100/1

1.00

15

Manchester by the Sea (Kyle Chandler)

1

0

100/1

1.00

25

Fences (Mykelti Williamson)

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Supporting Actress

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Fences (Viola Davis)

25

19

2/1

50.00

2

Manchester by the Sea (Michelle Williams)

23

8

10/3

30.00

3

Moonlight (Naomie Harris)

24

0

5/1

20.00

4

Lion (Nicole Kidman)

20

0

9/1

11.11

5

20th Century Women (Greta Gerwig)

10

0

20/1

5.00

6

Hidden Figures (Janelle Monae)

8

0

22/1

4.55

7

A Monster Calls (Felicity Jones)

7

0

33/1

3.03

8

The Hollars (Margo Martindale)

2

0

100/1

1.00

9

The Birth of a Nation (Aja Naomi King)

3

0

100/1

1.00

10

20th Century Women (Elle Fanning)

1

0

100/1

1.00

11

Queen of Katwe (Lupita Nyong’o)

1

0

100/1

1.00

12

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Kristen Stewart)

1

0

100/1

1.00

13

The Founder (Laura Dern)

1

0

100/1

1.00

14

Nocturnal Animals (Amy Adams)

1

0

100/1

1.00

23

Hidden Figures (Octavia Spencer)

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Original Screenplay

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Manchester by the Sea

24

18

2/1

50.00

2

Moonlight

23

5

7/2

28.57

3

La La Land

23

2

9/2

22.22

4

Loving

13

1

11/1

9.09

5

Jackie

15

0

12/1

8.33

6

Hell or High Water

8

0

20/1

5.00

7

20th Century Women

10

0

20/1

5.00

8

Captain Fantastic

2

0

100/1

1.00

9

Zootopia

1

0

100/1

1.00

22

The Lobster

1

0

100/1

1.00

NOTE: Moonlight got switched into Best Adapted Screenplay, but it was indeed nominated, so I’ve bolded it here anyways.

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Fences

21

19

19/10

52.63

2

Arrival

21

2

5/1

20.00

3

Silence

20

2

11/2

18.18

4

Lion

17

1

15/2

13.33

5

Nocturnal Animals

12

1

12/1

8.33

6

Hidden Figures

11

0

16/1

6.25

7

A Monster Calls

6

1

25/1

4.00

8

Hacksaw Ridge

2

0

66/1

1.52

9

Love and Friendship

2

0

80/1

1.25

10

Elle

1

0

100/1

1.00

11

Sully

1

0

100/1

1.00

12

Finding Dory

1

0

100/1

1.00

21

Snowden

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Cinematography

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

La La Land

18

14

19/10

52.63

2

Silence

15

2

6/1

16.67

3

Arrival

13

2

6/1

16.67

4

Jackie

13

0

9/1

11.11

5

Moonlight

12

0

9/1

11.11

6

Live By Night

4

0

28/1

3.57

7

Nocturnal Animals

2

1

33/1

3.03

8

Lion

3

0

50/1

2.00

9

The Jungle Book

3

0

50/1

2.00

10

Hail, Caesar!

2

0

66/1

1.52

11

A Monster Calls

2

0

80/1

1.25

12

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

1

0

100/1

1.00

13

Cafe Society

1

0

100/1

1.00

14

Doctor Strange

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Animated Feature

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Zootopia

21

16

15/8

53.33

2

Kubo and the Two Strings

18

2

5/1

20.00

3

Moana

15

2

13/2

15.38

4

Finding Dory

14

0

8/1

12.50

5

The Red Turtle

13

0

11/1

9.09

6

Sing

9

1

14/1

7.14

7

Sausage Party

6

0

28/1

3.57

8

The Little Prince

4

0

40/1

2.50

9

Trolls

2

0

80/1

1.25

10

My Life as a Zucchini

1

0

100/1

1.00

11

Miss Hokusai

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Visual Effects

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Doctor Strange

8

4

3/1

33.33

2

The Jungle Book

6

5

10/3

30.00

3

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

7

1

11/2

18.18

4

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

6

0

9/1

11.11

5

Arrival

4

1

10/1

10.00

6

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

5

0

20/1

5.00

7

Captain America: Civil War

3

0

25/1

4.00

8

Sully

1

0

50/1

2.00

9

Star Trek Beyond

1

0

66/1

1.52

10

The BFG

1

0

100/1

1.00

11

A Monster Calls

1

0

100/1

1.00

12

Warcraft

1

0

100/1

1.00

13

Deadpool

1

0

100/1

1.00

Nominated, but not in this list: Deepwater Horizon, Kubo and the Two Strings.

Best Film Editing

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

La La Land

12

10

2/1

50.00

2

Silence

9

1

11/2

18.18

3

Jackie

9

1

13/2

15.38

4

Hacksaw Ridge

8

0

10/1

10.00

5

Moonlight

6

0

11/1

9.09

6

Sully

1

1

25/1

4.00

7

The Jungle Book

2

1

28/1

3.57

8

Hidden Figures

2

0

28/1

3.57

9

Nocturnal Animals

3

0

28/1

3.57

10

Arrival

3

0

33/1

3.03

11

Deepwater Horizon

2

0

66/1

1.52

12

Lion

1

0

100/1

1.00

13

Manchester by the Sea

1

0

100/1

1.00

14

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

1

0

100/1

1.00

Nominated, but not in this list: Hell or High Water.

Best Score

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

La La Land

12

11

9/5

55.56

2

Jackie

10

2

4/1

25.00

3

Silence

9

1

7/1

14.29

4

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

6

0

14/1

7.14

5

Arrival

3

0

14/1

7.14

6

Lion

4

0

22/1

4.55

7

The Jungle Book

5

0

25/1

4.00

8

Nocturnal Animals

3

0

33/1

3.03

9

Hidden Figures

2

0

50/1

2.00

10

Moonlight

1

0

66/1

1.52

11

Florence Foster Jenkins

1

0

66/1

1.52

12

Hacksaw Ridge

1

0

80/1

1.25

13

Live By Night

1

0

100/1

1.00

14

Zootopia

1

0

100/1

1.00

15

Fences

1

0

100/1

1.00

Nominated, but not in this list: Passengers.

Best Sound Editing

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Hacksaw Ridge

9

9

7/4

57.14

2

La La Land

8

2

4/1

25.00

3

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

7

0

13/2

15.38

4

Deepwater Horizon

6

0

12/1

8.33

5

Silence

4

0

14/1

7.14

6

The Jungle Book

4

0

14/1

7.14

7

Arrival

2

0

25/1

4.00

8

Live By Night

1

0

50/1

2.00

9

Doctor Strange

1

0

100/1

1.00

10

Passengers

1

0

100/1

1.00

11

Sully

1

0

100/1

1.00

12

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Sound Mixing

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

La La Land

9

11

3/2

66.67

2

Hacksaw Ridge

9

0

4/1

25.00

3

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

8

0

11/2

18.18

4

Silence

5

0

10/1

10.00

5

The Jungle Book

4

0

16/1

6.25

6

Deepwater Horizon

4

0

25/1

4.00

7

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

2

0

50/1

2.00

8

Passengers

1

0

100/1

1.00

9

Arrival

1

0

100/1

1.00

11

Star Trek Beyond

1

0

100/1

1.00

12

Sully

1

0

100/1

1.00

Nominated, but not in this list: 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi.

Best Production Design

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

La La Land

11

11

19/10

52.63

2

Jackie

11

0

6/1

16.67

3

Silence

9

0

13/2

15.38

4

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

9

1

15/2

13.33

5

Rules Don’t Apply

5

1

14/1

7.14

6

The Jungle Book

3

1

22/1

4.55

7

Live By Night

2

0

22/1

4.55

8

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

3

0

28/1

3.57

9

Hidden Figures

3

0

33/1

3.03

10

Hail, Caesar!

1

0

66/1

1.52

11

Hacksaw Ridge

1

0

80/1

1.25

12

Florence Foster Jenkins

1

0

100/1

1.00

13

Fences

1

0

100/1

1.00

Nominated, but not in this list: Arrival, Passengers.

Best Costume Design

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Jackie

11

5

11/4

36.36

2

La La Land

10

6

14/5

35.71

3

Silence

7

1

6/1

16.67

4

Florence Foster Jenkins

7

1

8/1

12.50

5

Live By Night

3

0

16/1

6.25

6

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

5

0

18/1

5.56

7

Allied

4

0

28/1

3.57

8

Rules Don’t Apply

3

0

33/1

3.03

9

Captain Fantastic

2

0

50/1

2.00

10

Love and Friendship

2

0

66/1

1.52

11

Hidden Figures

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Jackie

11

10

5/4

80.00

2

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

6

1

7/1

14.29

3

Silence

5

0

9/1

11.11

4

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

3

1

11/1

9.09

5

Florence Foster Jenkins

3

1

11/1

9.09

6

Doctor Strange

1

1

25/1

4.00

7

Deadpool

2

0

28/1

3.57

8

Loving

2

0

33/1

3.03

9

A Monster Calls

1

0

50/1

2.00

10

Hacksaw Ridge

1

0

50/1

2.00

11

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

1

0

50/1

2.00

Nominated, but not in this list: A Man Called Ove, Suicide Squad, Star Trek Beyond. (That’s right, the experts missed all 3 nominees entirely!)

Of the 37 feature length films nominated (AKA everything but the docs/shorts/foreign categories), I’ve managed to watch all but 4: The Red Turtle (foreign animated movie which was just released in theaters this week, after nominations were announced), My Life As a Zucchini (foreign animated movie that is still not out in theaters or on home video, as far as I can find), Hail Caesar! (a February movie nominated for Best Production Design), and Jim: The James Foley Story (a documentary with one nomination for Best Song). ↩︎

In my last post, I made a list of the movies most likely to be nominated for Oscars, assigning them points based on Gold Derby’s odds in each category. But I didn’t know much about many of the films themselves, other than their title. So I went through and compiled Rotten Tomatoes & Metacritic scores, trailers, ratings, runtimes, actors, and more. Hope this helps some of you too!

(You can click on the movie names in the table below to jump down to more info about each one.)

(Note: I updated all movies to the latest Rotten Tomatoes/Metacritic scores, so they are slightly different from my previous post.)

Legend

● = No longer playing in theaters.

● = Currently in theaters.

● = Not yet released in theaters.

Most of the information in the tables below is from IMDB.1 I’ve updated the release dates to when the movie goes out in wide release, if I knew it (this is surprisingly hard-to-find data!).2 The plot synopses for each movie are from IMDB, because I noticed their synopses don’t spoil major details revealed an hour into movies (why do other sites do this? It’s maddening!). And finally, the critics consensuses are from Rotten Tomatoes and do a pretty good job of whetting your appetite without spoiling the films either.

SYNOPSIS: Following the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, First Lady Jacqueline Kennedy fights through grief and trauma to regain her faith, console her children, and define her husband’s historic legacy.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Jackie offers an alluring peek into a beloved American public figure’s private world – and an enthralling starring performance from Natalie Portman in the bargain.

SYNOPSIS: A timeless story of human connection and self-discovery, Moonlight chronicles the life of a young black man from childhood to adulthood as he struggles to find his place in the world while growing up in a rough neighborhood of Miami.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Moonlight uses one man’s story to offer a remarkable and brilliantly crafted look at lives too rarely seen in cinema.

SYNOPSIS: WWII American Army Medic Desmond T. Doss, who served during the Battle of Okinawa, refuses to kill people, and becomes the first man in American history to receive the Medal of Honor without firing a shot.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Hacksaw Ridge uses a real-life pacifist’s legacy to lay the groundwork for a gripping wartime tribute to faith, valor, and the courage of remaining true to one’s convictions.

SYNOPSIS: After a threat from the tiger Shere Khan forces him to flee the jungle, a man-cub named Mowgli embarks on a journey of self discovery with the help of panther, Bagheera, and free spirited bear, Baloo.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: As lovely to behold as it is engrossing to watch, The Jungle Book is the rare remake that actually improves upon its predecessors – all while setting a new standard for CGI.

SYNOPSIS: A five-year-old Indian boy gets lost on the streets of Calcutta, thousands of kilometers from home. He survives many challenges before being adopted by a couple in Australia; 25 years later, he sets out to find his lost family.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Lion’s undeniably uplifting story and talented cast are more than enough to make up for a fact-based story whose traditional Hollywood formula skims over a number of interesting real-life details.

SYNOPSIS: The story of Richard and Mildred Loving, an interracial couple, whose challenge of their anti-miscegenation arrest for their marriage in Virginia led to a legal battle that would end at the US Supreme Court.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Loving takes an understated approach to telling a painful – and still relevant – real-life tale, with sensitive performances breathing additional life into a superlative historical drama.

SYNOPSIS: A former neurosurgeon embarks on a journey of healing only to be drawn into the world of the mystic arts.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Doctor Strange artfully balances its outré source material against the blockbuster constraints of the MCU, delivering a thoroughly entertaining superhero origin story in the bargain.

SYNOPSIS: The story of Chesley Sullenberger, an American pilot who became a hero after landing his damaged plane on the Hudson River in order to save the flight’s passengers and crew.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: As comfortingly workmanlike as its protagonist, Sully makes solid use of typically superlative work from its star and director to deliver a quietly stirring tribute to an everyday hero.

SYNOPSIS: In Ancient Polynesia, when a terrible curse incurred by Maui reaches an impetuous Chieftain’s daughter’s island, she answers the Ocean’s call to seek out the demigod to set things right.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: With a title character as three-dimensional as its lush animation and a story that adds fresh depth to Disney’s time-tested formula, Moana is truly a family-friendly adventure for the ages.

SYNOPSIS: When Jacob discovers clues to a mystery that stretches across time, he finds Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children. But the danger deepens after he gets to know the residents and learns about their special powers.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children proves a suitable match for Tim Burton’s distinctive style, even if it’s on stronger footing as a visual experience than a narrative one.

SYNOPSIS: In the forests of the Pacific Northwest, a father devoted to raising his six kids with a rigorous physical and intellectual education is forced to leave his paradise and enter the world, challenging his idea of what it means to be a parent.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Captain Fantastic’s thought-provoking themes – and an absorbing starring turn from Viggo Mortensen – add up to an above-average family drama with unexpected twists.

SYNOPSIS: 19-year-old Billy Lynn is brought home for a victory tour after a harrowing Iraq battle. Through flashbacks the film shows what really happened to his squad contrasting the realities of war with America’s perceptions.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk has noble goals, but lacks a strong enough screenplay to achieve them – and its visual innovations are often merely distracting.

SYNOPSIS: Political interference in the Avengers’ activities causes a rift between former allies Captain America and Iron Man.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Captain America: Civil War begins the next wave of Marvel movies with an action-packed superhero blockbuster boasting a decidedly non-cartoonish plot and the courage to explore thought-provoking themes.

SYNOPSIS: In 1942, an intelligence officer in North Africa encounters a female French Resistance fighter on a deadly mission behind enemy lines. When they reunite in London, their relationship is tested by the pressures of war.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Allied has its moments, but doesn’t quite achieve epic wartime romance status – a disappointment made more profound by the dazzling talent assembled on either side of the camera.

SYNOPSIS: A little girl lives in a very grown-up world with her mother, who tries to prepare her for it. Her neighbor, the Aviator, introduces the girl to an extraordinary world where anything is possible, the world of the Little Prince.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Beautifully animated and faithful to the spirit of its classic source material, The Little Prince is a family-friendly treat that anchors thrilling visuals with a satisfying story.

SYNOPSIS: As an Orc horde invades the planet Azeroth using a magic portal, a few human heroes and dissenting Orcs must attempt to stop the true evil behind this war.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Warcraft has visual thrills to spare, but they – and director Duncan Jones’ distinctive gifts – are wasted on a sluggish and derivative adaptation of a bestselling game with little evident cinematic value.

SYNOPSIS: In a dystopian near future, single people, according to the laws of The City, are taken to The Hotel, where they are obliged to find a romantic partner in forty-five days or are transformed into beasts and sent off into The Woods.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: As strange as it is thrillingly ambitious, The Lobster is definitely an acquired taste – but for viewers with the fortitude to crack through Yorgos Lanthimos’ offbeat sensibilities, it should prove a savory cinematic treat.

SYNOPSIS: A man returns to his small hometown after learning that his mother has fallen ill and is about to undergo surgery.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: The Hollars gathers an impressive assortment of talented stars; unfortunately, it’s all in service of a story that’s been played out more effectively in countless other indie dramedies.

SYNOPSIS: A girl named Sophie encounters the Big Friendly Giant who, despite his intimidating appearance, turns out to be a kind-hearted soul who is considered an outcast by the other giants because, unlike them, he refuses to eat children.

SYNOPSIS: The NSA’s illegal surveillance techniques are leaked to the public by one of the agency’s employees, Edward Snowden, in the form of thousands of classified documents distributed to the press.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Snowden boasts a thrilling fact-based tale and a solid lead performance from Joseph Gordon-Levitt, even if director Oliver Stone saps the story of some of its impact by playing it safe.

SYNOPSIS: An account of Boston Police Commissioner Ed Davis’s actions in the events leading up to the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing and the aftermath, which includes the city-wide manhunt to find the terrorists behind it.

SYNOPSIS: Courgette is an intriguing nickname for a 9-year-old boy. Although his unique story is surprisingly universal. After his mother’s sudden death, Courgette is befriended by a police officer … See full summary »

SYNOPSIS: The inspirational story of World Champion Boxer Vinny Pazienza who, after a near fatal car crash which left him not knowing if he’d ever walk again, made one of sport’s most incredible comebacks.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Bleed for This rises on the strength of Miles Teller’s starring performance to deliver a solid fact-based boxing drama that takes a few genre clichés on the chin but keeps on coming.

At first, I was getting runtimes from Rotten Tomatoes. But weirdly enough, IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes have slightly different runtimes for a bunch of movies! I wonder why that is? For consistency’s sake, I’ve used IMDB’s runtimes for everything. ↩︎

One major annoyance now that I’ve been getting into more serious/”Oscar-bait” movies lately: they don’t always have firm release dates, so you never know when they’ll show up at your local theater! Unlike major blockbusters, which open everywhere on the same date, these small films often open in only about 100 theaters (for comparison’s sake, Rogue One opened in 4,157, and then gradually expand if they do well. But some theaters drop these movies quickly, even as they expand to others! For example, I really wanted to see Moonlight when it debuted, but it was only playing at two theaters way out of the way for me. I had family in the hospital at the time, so by the time I had time to watch the movie, it was out of those theaters. I thought I was out of luck until it surprisingly showed up at my local theater weeks later. And even now, I’ve been driving to theaters all over the place to be able to watch films like The Edge of Seventeen or Nocturnal Animals (both so great!) because they’re not at my local theater and I don’t know if they ever will be. ↩︎

Last year, I tried to watch every movie nominated for an Oscar. But I missed a couple because by the time nominations were announced, those movies were out of theaters but not yet out on DVD/Blu-Ray/iTunes.

This year, I decided to try to figure out the Oscar-nominated movies ahead of time. I used data from GoldDerby.com, a Hollywood awards-prediction site. They have ongoing odds calculations for 18 major categories, which I used to allocate points to each movie.

(Yes, this is all pretty stupid, since the biggest awards contenders are already pretty well-known. But I was curious about the movies that might have flown more under-the-radar, and anyways, it was a fun exercise for me in using Markdown tables!)

Sort by category

Here’s the original set of data, sorted by Oscar category. It is all sourced from Gold Derby’s experts predictions for the 2017 Oscars ceremony. I downloaded the data sometime in the last week of November, so my numbers may be a little different than the latest odds. The only thing I’ve added is the points column, which I explain below.

An explanation of the columns:

NOM = The number of experts who believe a film will be nominated for that award.

WIN = The number of experts who believe a film will win for that award.

ODDS = GoldDerby’s odds of a movie winning that award.

PTS = My very simple formula for allocating points. It’s just 100 divided by the odds. For example, a title with 20/1 odds is calculated as 100/ODDS = 100/(20/1) = 100/20 = 5 points. You can think of it as roughly the percentage chance of the movie winning that award.1

One other thing of note: if you look at the original charts on Gold Derby, every category has numerous movies with 100/1 odds and zero experts predicting a nomination or win. I think Gold Derby keeps them around because they were thought at one time to be contenders, but they serve no real purpose for my needs, so I have omitted them from my charts below. Also, I don’t understand how Gold Derby sorts movies with the same odds ranking because there were a few categories with a movie with 100/1 odds and 1 nomination prediction ranked well below a bunch of movies with 100/1 odds and 0 nomination predictions. This is why the last entry in some of the charts has a very different NUM rank than the preceding entry.

Best Picture

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

La La Land

26

22

9/2

22.22

2

Manchester by the Sea

26

4

13/2

15.38

3

Moonlight

26

0

9/1

11.11

4

Fences

25

0

9/1

11.11

5

Loving

22

1

12/1

8.33

6

Silence

21

0

14/1

7.14

7

Lion

20

0

14/1

7.14

8

Jackie

18

0

16/1

6.25

9

Arrival

15

0

20/1

5.00

10

Sully

14

0

28/1

3.57

11

Hidden Figures

10

0

33/1

3.03

12

Hell or High Water

6

0

50/1

2.00

13

Hacksaw Ridge

7

0

66/1

1.52

14

A Monster Calls

2

0

100/1

1.00

15

Nocturnal Animals

4

0

100/1

1.00

16

Patriot’s Day

1

0

100/1

1.00

17

The Birth of a Nation

4

0

100/1

1.00

18

20th Century Women

1

0

100/1

1.00

19

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

2

0

100/1

1.00

20

Passengers

1

0

100/1

1.00

21

Live By Night

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Director

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

La La Land (Damien Chazelle)

26

22

17/10

58.82

2

Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)

26

4

4/1

25.00

3

Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)

23

0

6/1

16.67

4

Silence (Martin Scorsese)

14

0

12/1

8.33

5

Fences (Denzel Washington)

14

1

12/1

8.33

6

Jackie (Pablo Larrain)

7

0

33/1

3.03

7

Loving (Jeff Nichols)

5

0

40/1

2.50

8

Arrival (Denis Villeneuve)

4

0

66/1

1.52

9

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Ang Lee)

2

0

80/1

1.25

10

Lion (Garth Davis)

2

0

80/1

1.25

11

Hidden Figures (Theodore Melfi)

1

0

100/1

1.00

12

Passengers (Morten Tyldum)

1

0

100/1

1.00

13

Sully (Clint Eastwood)

1

0

100/1

1.00

14

Hacksaw Ridge (Mel Gibson)

1

0

100/1

1.00

36

Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Actor

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Manchester by the Sea (Casey Affleck)

26

17

2/1

50.00

2

Fences (Denzel Washington)

24

10

14/5

35.71

3

La La Land (Ryan Gosling)

22

0

13/2

15.38

4

Loving (Joel Edgerton)

17

0

9/1

11.11

5

Sully (Tom Hanks)

14

0

14/1

7.14

6

Captain Fantastic (Viggo Mortensen)

5

0

40/1

2.50

7

Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Garfield)

6

0

40/1

2.50

8

The Founder (Michael Keaton)

3

0

66/1

1.52

9

Silence (Andrew Garfield)

3

0

80/1

1.25

10

Rules Don’t Apply (Warren Beatty)

2

0

100/1

1.00

11

Nocturnal Animals (Jake Gyllenhaal)

2

0

100/1

1.00

12

The Birth of a Nation (Nate Parker)

2

0

100/1

1.00

13

Gold (Matthew McConaughey)

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Actress

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

La La Land (Emma Stone)

26

17

21/10

47.62

2

Jackie (Natalie Portman)

25

6

7/2

28.57

3

Loving (Ruth Negga)

23

2

6/1

16.67

4

20th Century Women (Annette Bening)

20

1

7/1

14.29

5

Arrival (Amy Adams)

15

0

14/1

7.14

6

Hidden Figures (Taraji P. Henson)

4

1

25/1

4.00

7

Miss Sloane (Jessica Chastain)

5

0

40/1

2.50

8

Florence Foster Jenkins (Meryl Streep)

4

0

50/1

2.00

9

Elle (Isabelle Huppert)

4

0

66/1

1.52

10

Fences (Viola Davis)

1

0

100/1

1.00

11

Passengers (Jennifer Lawrence)

1

0

100/1

1.00

12

Nocturnal Animals (Amy Adams)

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Supporting Actor

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Moonlight (Mahershala Ali)

24

13

12/5

41.67

2

Manchester by the Sea (Lucas Hedges)

22

4

9/2

22.22

3

Hell or High Water (Jeff Bridges)

18

2

13/2

15.38

4

Lion (Dev Patel)

14

3

9/1

11.11

5

Nocturnal Animals (Michael Shannon)

14

3

9/1

11.11

6

Silence (Liam Neeson)

10

2

12/1

8.33

7

Fences (Stephen Henderson)

5

0

50/1

2.00

8

Florence Foster Jenkins (Hugh Grant)

6

0

50/1

2.00

9

Fences (Jovan Adepo)

4

0

50/1

2.00

10

Denial (Timothy Spall)

2

0

66/1

1.52

11

Bleed for This (Aaron Eckhart)

2

0

100/1

1.00

12

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Steve Martin)

1

0

100/1

1.00

13

Hell or High Water (Ben Foster)

1

0

100/1

1.00

14

Hidden Figures (Kevin Costner)

1

0

100/1

1.00

15

Manchester by the Sea (Kyle Chandler)

1

0

100/1

1.00

25

Fences (Mykelti Williamson)

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Supporting Actress

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Fences (Viola Davis)

25

19

2/1

50.00

2

Manchester by the Sea (Michelle Williams)

23

8

10/3

30.00

3

Moonlight (Naomie Harris)

24

0

5/1

20.00

4

Lion (Nicole Kidman)

20

0

9/1

11.11

5

20th Century Women (Greta Gerwig)

10

0

20/1

5.00

6

Hidden Figures (Janelle Monae)

8

0

22/1

4.55

7

A Monster Calls (Felicity Jones)

7

0

33/1

3.03

8

The Hollars (Margo Martindale)

2

0

100/1

1.00

9

The Birth of a Nation (Aja Naomi King)

3

0

100/1

1.00

10

20th Century Women (Elle Fanning)

1

0

100/1

1.00

11

Queen of Katwe (Lupita Nyong’o)

1

0

100/1

1.00

12

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Kristen Stewart)

1

0

100/1

1.00

13

The Founder (Laura Dern)

1

0

100/1

1.00

14

Nocturnal Animals (Amy Adams)

1

0

100/1

1.00

23

Hidden Figures (Octavia Spencer)

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Original Screenplay

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Manchester by the Sea

24

18

2/1

50.00

2

Moonlight

23

5

7/2

28.57

3

La La Land

23

2

9/2

22.22

4

Loving

13

1

11/1

9.09

5

Jackie

15

0

12/1

8.33

6

Hell or High Water

8

0

20/1

5.00

7

20th Century Women

10

0

20/1

5.00

8

Captain Fantastic

2

0

100/1

1.00

9

Zootopia

1

0

100/1

1.00

22

The Lobster

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Fences

21

19

19/10

52.63

2

Arrival

21

2

5/1

20.00

3

Silence

20

2

11/2

18.18

4

Lion

17

1

15/2

13.33

5

Nocturnal Animals

12

1

12/1

8.33

6

Hidden Figures

11

0

16/1

6.25

7

A Monster Calls

6

1

25/1

4.00

8

Hacksaw Ridge

2

0

66/1

1.52

9

Love and Friendship

2

0

80/1

1.25

10

Elle

1

0

100/1

1.00

11

Sully

1

0

100/1

1.00

12

Finding Dory

1

0

100/1

1.00

21

Snowden

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Animated Feature

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Zootopia

21

16

15/8

53.33

2

Kubo and the Two Strings

18

2

5/1

20.00

3

Moana

15

2

13/2

15.38

4

Finding Dory

14

0

8/1

12.50

5

The Red Turtle

13

0

11/1

9.09

6

Sing

9

1

14/1

7.14

7

Sausage Party

6

0

28/1

3.57

8

The Little Prince

4

0

40/1

2.50

9

Trolls

2

0

80/1

1.25

10

My Life as a Zucchini

1

0

100/1

1.00

11

Miss Hokusai

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Visual Effects

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Doctor Strange

8

4

3/1

33.33

2

The Jungle Book

6

5

10/3

30.00

3

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

7

1

11/2

18.18

4

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

6

0

9/1

11.11

5

Arrival

4

1

10/1

10.00

6

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

5

0

20/1

5.00

7

Captain America: Civil War

3

0

25/1

4.00

8

Sully

1

0

50/1

2.00

9

Star Trek Beyond

1

0

66/1

1.52

10

The BFG

1

0

100/1

1.00

11

A Monster Calls

1

0

100/1

1.00

12

Warcraft

1

0

100/1

1.00

13

Deadpool

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Cinematography

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

La La Land

18

14

19/10

52.63

2

Silence

15

2

6/1

16.67

3

Arrival

13

2

6/1

16.67

4

Jackie

13

0

9/1

11.11

5

Moonlight

12

0

9/1

11.11

6

Live By Night

4

0

28/1

3.57

7

Nocturnal Animals

2

1

33/1

3.03

8

Lion

3

0

50/1

2.00

9

The Jungle Book

3

0

50/1

2.00

10

Hail, Caesar!

2

0

66/1

1.52

11

A Monster Calls

2

0

80/1

1.25

12

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

1

0

100/1

1.00

13

Cafe Society

1

0

100/1

1.00

14

Doctor Strange

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Film Editing

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

La La Land

12

10

2/1

50.00

2

Silence

9

1

11/2

18.18

3

Jackie

9

1

13/2

15.38

4

Hacksaw Ridge

8

0

10/1

10.00

5

Moonlight

6

0

11/1

9.09

6

Sully

1

1

25/1

4.00

7

The Jungle Book

2

1

28/1

3.57

8

Hidden Figures

2

0

28/1

3.57

9

Nocturnal Animals

3

0

28/1

3.57

10

Arrival

3

0

33/1

3.03

11

Deepwater Horizon

2

0

66/1

1.52

12

Lion

1

0

100/1

1.00

13

Manchester by the Sea

1

0

100/1

1.00

14

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Score

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

La La Land

12

11

9/5

55.56

2

Jackie

10

2

4/1

25.00

3

Silence

9

1

7/1

14.29

4

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

6

0

14/1

7.14

5

Arrival

3

0

14/1

7.14

6

Lion

4

0

22/1

4.55

7

The Jungle Book

5

0

25/1

4.00

8

Nocturnal Animals

3

0

33/1

3.03

9

Hidden Figures

2

0

50/1

2.00

10

Moonlight

1

0

66/1

1.52

11

Florence Foster Jenkins

1

0

66/1

1.52

12

Hacksaw Ridge

1

0

80/1

1.25

13

Live By Night

1

0

100/1

1.00

14

Zootopia

1

0

100/1

1.00

15

Fences

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Sound Editing

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Hacksaw Ridge

9

9

7/4

57.14

2

La La Land

8

2

4/1

25.00

3

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

7

0

13/2

15.38

4

Deepwater Horizon

6

0

12/1

8.33

5

Silence

4

0

14/1

7.14

6

The Jungle Book

4

0

14/1

7.14

7

Arrival

2

0

25/1

4.00

8

Live By Night

1

0

50/1

2.00

9

Doctor Strange

1

0

100/1

1.00

10

Passengers

1

0

100/1

1.00

11

Sully

1

0

100/1

1.00

12

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Sound Mixing

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

La La Land

9

11

3/2

66.67

2

Hacksaw Ridge

9

0

4/1

25.00

3

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

8

0

11/2

18.18

4

Silence

5

0

10/1

10.00

5

The Jungle Book

4

0

16/1

6.25

6

Deepwater Horizon

4

0

25/1

4.00

7

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

2

0

50/1

2.00

8

Passengers

1

0

100/1

1.00

9

Arrival

1

0

100/1

1.00

11

Star Trek Beyond

1

0

100/1

1.00

12

Sully

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Production Design

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

La La Land

11

11

19/10

52.63

2

Jackie

11

0

6/1

16.67

3

Silence

9

0

13/2

15.38

4

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

9

1

15/2

13.33

5

Rules Don’t Apply

5

1

14/1

7.14

6

The Jungle Book

3

1

22/1

4.55

7

Live By Night

2

0

22/1

4.55

8

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

3

0

28/1

3.57

9

Hidden Figures

3

0

33/1

3.03

10

Hail, Caesar!

1

0

66/1

1.52

11

Hacksaw Ridge

1

0

80/1

1.25

12

Florence Foster Jenkins

1

0

100/1

1.00

13

Fences

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Costume Design

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Jackie

11

5

11/4

36.36

2

La La Land

10

6

14/5

35.71

3

Silence

7

1

6/1

16.67

4

Florence Foster Jenkins

7

1

8/1

12.50

5

Live By Night

3

0

16/1

6.25

6

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

5

0

18/1

5.56

7

Allied

4

0

28/1

3.57

8

Rules Don’t Apply

3

0

33/1

3.03

9

Captain Fantastic

2

0

50/1

2.00

10

Love and Friendship

2

0

66/1

1.52

11

Hidden Figures

1

0

100/1

1.00

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM

NAME

NOM

WIN

ODDS

PTS

1

Jackie

11

10

5/4

80.00

2

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

6

1

7/1

14.29

3

Silence

5

0

9/1

11.11

4

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

3

1

11/1

9.09

5

Florence Foster Jenkins

3

1

11/1

9.09

6

Doctor Strange

1

1

25/1

4.00

7

Deadpool

2

0

28/1

3.57

8

Loving

2

0

33/1

3.03

9

A Monster Calls

1

0

50/1

2.00

10

Hacksaw Ridge

1

0

50/1

2.00

11

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

1

0

50/1

2.00

Sort by movie

If you want to browse through all the different movies, here you go.

(As I mentioned earlier, I started this whole post as a way of experimenting with Markdown tables. But it turns out multi-line cells in Markdown tables are not supported by most Markdown converters, including the one in my blog software, Jekyll. Rather than try to painstakingly convert it manually, I’m just embedding my big ol’ plain text chart here instead.)

If you don’t want to skim through this, feel free to jump down to the list sorted by score instead.

Final list

And finally, here’s our overall list of movies!

Remember, this isn’t the movies most likely to win Best Picture, but rather an aggregated list of movies most likely to score Oscar nominations/wins in ANY category. So some of these movies are “punching above their weight” because they are likely to win more of the technical awards.

All in all, it’s a pretty interesting list. The 1st-ranked movie has more than twice the score of the 2nd-ranked movie. There are 7 movies with 100+ points, 13 movies with 50+ points, and 28 movies with 10+ points. And at the end of the list, 12 lonely movies with just 1 point each.

(The dates are color-coded based on whether the movie was playing in my local theaters. Green means the movie is not out yet, yellow means it’s currently playing, red means it’s out of theatres already. It doesn’t always correspond exactly to the dates listed because those are often when the movie debuted in limited release, not wide release.)

Looks like I have a lot of catching up to do before February!

Num

Points

Title

Release

1.

504.46 pts

La La Land

2016-12-16

2.

230.70 pts

Jackie

2016-12-09

3.

194.60 pts

Manchester by the Sea

2016-12-02

4.

165.78 pts

Fences

2016-12-25

5.

152.67 pts

Silence

2016-12-23

6.

139.74 pts

Moonlight

2016-10-21

7.

103.18 pts

Hacksaw Ridge

2016-11-04

8.

75.50 pts

Arrival

2016-11-11

9.

71.54 pts

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

2016-12-16

10.

57.51 pts

The Jungle Book

2016-04-15

11.

55.33 pts

Zootopia

2016-03-04

12.

51.49 pts

Lion

2016-11-25

13.

50.73 pts

Loving

2016-11-04

14.

49.29 pts

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

2016-11-18

15.

39.33 pts

Doctor Strange

2016-11-04

16.

34.07 pts

Nocturnal Animals

2016-11-18

17.

30.43 pts

Hidden Figures

2017-01-06

18.

28.11 pts

Florence Foster Jenkins

2016-08-12

19.

26.29 pts

20th Century Women

2016-12-25

20.

23.38 pts

Hell or High Water

2016-08-12

21.

20.71 pts

Sully

2016-11-09

22.

20.00 pts

Kubo and the Two Strings

2016-08-19

23.

18.37 pts

Live By Night

2017-01-13

24.

15.38 pts

Moana

2016-11-23

25.

13.85 pts

Deepwater Horizon

2016-09-30

26.

13.50 pts

Finding Dory

2016-06-17

27.

12.28 pts

A Monster Calls

2016-12-23

28.

11.17 pts

Rules Don’t Apply

2016-11-23

29.

9.09 pts

The Red Turtle

2017-01-20

30.

7.14 pts

Sing

2016-12-21

31.

7.00 pts

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

2016-09-30

32.

5.50 pts

Captain Fantastic

2016-07-08

33.

5.00 pts

Passengers

2016-12-21

34.

4.57 pts

Deadpool

2016-02-12

35.

4.25 pts

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

2016-11-18

36.

4.00 pts

Captain America: Civil War

2016-05-06

37.

3.57 pts

Sausage Party

2016-08-12

38.

3.57 pts

Allied

2016-11-23

39.

3.04 pts

Hail, Caesar!

2016-02-05

40.

3.00 pts

The Birth of a Nation

2016-10-07

41.

2.77 pts

Love and Friendship

2016-05-13

42.

2.52 pts

The Founder

2016-12-16

43.

2.52 pts

Star Trek Beyond

2016-07-22

44.

2.52 pts

Elle

2016-11-11

45.

2.50 pts

The Little Prince

2016-08-05

46.

2.50 pts

Miss Sloane

2016-12-09

47.

1.52 pts

Denial

2016-09-30

48.

1.25 pts

Trolls

2016-11-04

49.

1.00 pts

Warcraft

2016-06-10

50.

1.00 pts

The Lobster

2016-05-13

51.

1.00 pts

The Hollars

2016-08-26

52.

1.00 pts

The BFG

2016-07-01

53.

1.00 pts

Snowden

2016-09-16

54.

1.00 pts

Queen of Katwe

2016-09-23

55.

1.00 pts

Patriot’s Day

2016-12-21

56.

1.00 pts

My Life as a Zucchini

2016-11-11

57.

1.00 pts

Miss Hokusai

2016-10-14

58.

1.00 pts

Gold

2017-01-27

59.

1.00 pts

Cafe Society

2016-07-15

60.

1.00 pts

Bleed for This

2016-11-18

It was only after I ran all the numbers that I discovered implied probability. Unfortunately, I used Markdown tables to organize this data and it’s devilishly difficult to re-calculate numbers in that format. And the implied probability calculations would’ve only slighted changed the numbers and almost never the order of rankings. If I was doing this all over again, I would’ve kept all the data in an Excel spreadsheet and only converted it to Markdown tables when I was ready to publish this post, but c’est la vie! ↩︎