Senate control ‘on knife’s edge’

Some $400 million has already been spent in the battle for the Senate. Yet the record-shattering early money has hardly budged the half-dozen races that will decide the fate of the upper chamber, and two months out from Election Day, top officials from both parties say the election truly could go either way.

POLITICO interviewed two dozen party operatives and campaign aides about their outlook for November. Most said the GOP has a slight edge because the playing field tilts conservative. But the overwhelming sentiment was uncertainty about what will happen.

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Homestretch Part 1: The House

“There are probably five states where there’s a statistical tie right now,” said Rob Portman, vice chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “Many of them are right on the knife’s edge.” Ty Matsdorf, the campaigns and communications director at Senate Majority PAC, the biggest outside Democratic group, said, “You have six races that you could conceivably call a coin flip.”

— Republicans believe President Barack Obama’s unpopularity will ultimately sink some of the most endangered Senate Democrats. But it hasn’t happened yet. The deep home-state roots of Democratic incumbents like Sens. Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Mark Begich of Alaska have helped insulate them from the president so far. “Given his unpopularity today, we can win. If Obama becomes more unpopular, then we can’t win,” a top Democratic strategist said. “That’s what we think about.”

— Sources say Republicans assume that an ambitious Democratic turnout initiative will give the party a potentially significant 1- or 2-percentage point boost in some key states. Both parties’ turnout operations could be critical because the avalanche of TV ads is fueling concern that voters will simply tune them out. One recent GOP focus group in North Carolina showed voters are disgusted by incessant negativity on the airwaves.

— GOP hopes last fall that anti-Obamacare sentiment would dominate the midterm election haven’t materialized. That has played into the Democratic strategy of turning key contests into discrete battles fought on local terms. In North Carolina, Democrats are criticizing Republican statehouse Speaker Thom Tillis’s actions on education, and in Alaska GOP nominee Dan Sullivan is fending off attacks over his support for a controversial mining project. One wild card: the executive actions that Obama may take this month on immigration, which Republicans believe could drive their voters to the polls.

— Though Republican outside groups have outspent Democratic groups by a wide margin — roughly $100 million to $68 million — more than one-fifth of the GOP spending appears to have gone toward Republican primaries. Democrats, on the other hand, have spent almost exclusively on beating up Republican challengers before they have had a chance to fully introduce themselves — and their damaged approval ratings reflect the barrage. On the flip side, the GOP establishment’s muscular intervention in primaries has spared them the humiliations of another Todd Akin or Christine O’Donnell.

If Democrats manage to hold on, money will be a big reason. After the GOP lost two Senate seats and the presidential election in 2012, big GOP donors resisted opening their wallets again for months. Despite raising record-breaking sums, the NRSC is still trailing its Democratic counterpart by about $30 million over the course of the election. Democrats have benefited from a slew of high-dollar fundraisers headlined by Obama, who wants to keep the Senate out of GOP hands for the remainder of his presidency.

There are other important dynamics at play. Conservatives have gravitated toward contributing to 501(c)(4) nonprofits, where their names are not disclosed publicly, as opposed to super PACs. But the nonprofits must run issue-focused ads, which research shows are not as effective as straight attack ads.

Control of the Senate will be decided in the South. Taking for granted that Republicans will pick up open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, they need three more to get to 51. The most vulnerable Democratic incumbents are in Louisiana, Arkansas and North Carolina.

The truest toss-up today is Iowa. Republican Joni Ernst is on track to raise more than $3 million in the third quarter, sources tell POLITICO, a reflection of how much hope conservative donors are putting in her. Democrat Bruce Braley replaced his admaker and pollster in a summer shake-up, and his allies have outspent the right the past few weeks — driving up Ernst’s negatives.

The next most vulnerable incumbents are Alaska’s Begich and Colorado’s Mark Udall.

Despite heavy news media attention, Republicans remain favorites to hold on in Kentucky and Georgia. And barring a late-breaking pro-GOP wave, Democrats are expected to win in New Hampshire and Michigan. All four of these lower-tier races will nonetheless draw heavy spending and could still flip.

Arkansas may be the one race that most closely reflects the national dynamic. Last year, Pryor was seen as a sure loser, a Democrat who voted for Obamacare in a deepening red state. But leaning on the identity he and his family forged over decades — Pryor’s father David is a popular former governor and senator — the incumbent managed to keep the race in play. This is a contrast to Blanche Lincoln, a moderate Democrat who trailed double digits by this stage in 2010 partly because outside groups spent no money hammering her Republican challenger.

Democratic outside groups have outspent GOP outside groups $7 million to $3.7 million, mostly on tagging Pryor’s opponent, star GOP recruit and military veteran Tom Cotton, as extreme. They’ve been hammering the Republican congressman pretty much nonstop since last September.