2017 ENSO Discussion

Tom

Posted 18 January 2017 - 06:39 AM

Tom

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LocationDes Plaines, IL

Could there be another El Nino brewing??? I know there isn't much talk about this in many circles, but I find it interesting that the possibility of another Nino is on the table. Some mets believed the oceans would be cooling in the central Pacific after a very strong Nino a year ago. Mother Nature may have another trick up her sleeve.

Let's discuss...

Thus far, the CFSv2 model has a modiki-type El Nino brewing by June/July of this year. By June, SST's are warming...

By July, a moderate El Nino has formed...

By October, a classic modiki signature Nino in the works. This could be very important to next year's LRC pattern.

snow_wizard

Posted 18 January 2017 - 06:46 PM

snow_wizard

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I'm skeptical.

It would be unprecedented to have another El Nino so soon after a major multi year event just finished early last year. Besides that we are at very low solar activity now. If there is one it should be weak and short lived. A lot going against this.

Tom

Posted 18 January 2017 - 07:00 PM

Tom

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LocationDes Plaines, IL

I'm skeptical.

It would be unprecedented to have another El Nino so soon after a major multi year event just finished early last year. Besides that we are at very low solar activity now. If there is one it should be weak and short lived. A lot going against this.

I agree. It doesn't seem like the atmospheric conditions would hold together for a long duration Nino. Something like what the JAMSTEC is indicating may make more sense.

Warmer subsurface anomalies are growing of late...colder waters are disappearing rather quickly...

Niko

From TWC: La Niña has officially faded away and there is a chance El Niño could develop later this year, according to an update issued Thursday by meteorologists at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Generally weak La Niña conditions have been in place since late fall, meaning cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures stretched across most of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

But an analysis of recent sea surface temperatures indicates water temperatures in that region have retreated to levels that are just slightly below average, and therefore, no longer meeting La Niña criteria.

"Even though it was fairly weak and short-lived ... it did leave impacts," Mike Halpert of NOAA told The Associated Press.

One prominent feature consistent with La Niña this winter has been the above-average temperatures we've seen in the South and mid-Atlantic. The northern Plains saw colder-than-average temperatures in December, which is also consistent with La Niña, but was then near or slightly above average in January.

Perhaps the most pronounced features of La Niña's impact on the atmosphere is the impressively heavy snow and persistent cold in the West, and heavy rainfall near Indonesia.

The blue area in the red box indicates cooler than average water temperatures during late-December 2016 in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. That indicates La Niña conditions were present. (NOAA)

NOAA expects neutral conditions to persist through the spring, meaning water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean will neither be in the La Niña nor El Niño state.

Looking ahead to later this year, it's possible that El Niño could make a reappearance as some climate models are suggesting. NOAA is giving that about a 50 percent chance of happening sometime September-November.

The colored lines on the image below are various model forecasts for water temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region that is used to determine whether La Niña, El Niño or neutral conditions are present in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Neutral conditions means that neither La Niña or El Niño is present.

Through spring, those lines are clustered between the 0.5 and -0.5 degrees Celsius anomalies, meaning neutral conditions are present as NOAA is forecasting. By late summer or fall, the lines for some of the models exceed an anomaly of 0.5 degrees Cesisus, which means El Niño is forecast by those models. Other the other hand, numerous other models are forecasting neutral conditions to persist during that time.

NOAA-CPC did caution, however, that these El Niño/La Niña model forecasts this time of year are very uncertain and that the atmospheric response described above remains very typical of La Niña, despite the recent warming of the sea-surface in the equatorial Pacific.

Dynamical and statistical model forecasts of three-month mean sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region from spring through next fall. (IRI/CPC)

If El Niño did develop later this year it could have impacts on hurricane season, and possibly weather conditions in the United States next fall or winter. But it's far too early to speculate on that, especially since El Niño may never emerge to begin with.

Last winter (2015-16) featured one of the strongest El Niño events on record, with far-reaching impacts around the globe.

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.." "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself"“and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off” "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."

Tom

So, did the PDO flip back to the state that favors Nino's? Just wondering cuz it looks like we're on our way to a second spiking Nino in 3 yrs

There are some differences on how this El Nino develops compared to the '15-'16 Super Nino which was very warm in the eastern equatorial PAC late Summer/Fall and then migrated westward during the winter. This Nino seems to be evolving more central-based during the summer.

gosaints

Please not a 1.5+ Nino. I'm itching for a decent winter unless that's good for our area because it's central based, but it's probably not.

Its hard enough to forecast the nino itself. If anyone pretends they can predict what type nino will show up they are gonna have to get lucky. Its like gfs and its ensembles trying to predict teleconnections in the 8-14 day range

OKwx2k4

Posted 17 February 2017 - 03:59 PM

OKwx2k4

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Its hard enough to forecast the nino itself. If anyone pretends they can predict what type nino will show up they are gonna have to get lucky. Its like gfs and its ensembles trying to predict teleconnections in the 8-14 day range

Tom

Looks like pretty good placement to me. Still wouldn't put an extreme amount of faith in a nino of much significance though.

Still to far out to pin point any details, but I find this map interesting from the CFSv2. Here is a comparison from the Fall 2015 Nino to the forecast Nino this Fall in terms of velocity potential. #Modiki

Illinois_WX

CFSv2 backing off the idea of a moderate/strong Nino...more like a weak Nino for Summer...

What was the Nina/Nino status back in Spring 2008 do you know? That was the most active severe weather pattern I had ever seen, I remember a met back in the fall mentioning a spring outlook similar to the '08 one, not sure if that's at all at play anymore though.

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50

Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 07:30 AM

Tom

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LocationDes Plaines, IL

What was the Nina/Nino status back in Spring 2008 do you know? That was the most active severe weather pattern I had ever seen, I remember a met back in the fall mentioning a spring outlook similar to the '08 one, not sure if that's at all at play anymore though.

I'm not sure what the ENSO status was back in Spring '08. Check that, just dug up the raw #'s...looks like back then it was still a weak Nina (-0.9) on avg during March-May.

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.." "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself"“and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off” "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."