FPI Overnight Brief: January 14, 2011

A day after toppling the
Lebanese government, the Shiite Hezbollah movement and its allies were working
to gain enough support in parliament to control the selection of Lebanon's next
prime minister, Lebanese officials said. – Washington
Post

With Hezbollah’s toppling of the Lebanese government, the militant Shiite
Muslim movement entered what may prove one of the most dangerous chapters in a
30-year history that has made it reviled in the West and popular in the Arab
world: At the moment seemingly of its greatest power, the path facing it could
unveil its most glaring weaknesses. – New
York Times

Hezbollah-led politicians who forced the collapse of Prime Minister Saad
Hariri's government here said they would block him from leading the next
administration, limiting the prospects of Washington's primary ally in Lebanon.
– Wall
Street Journal (subscription required)

The collapse of Lebanon's unity government presents a dilemma to U.S.
policymakers - support the pursuit of justice in a U.N. tribunal investigating
the 2005 assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri or support a stable,
secure and prosperous Lebanon. – Washington
Times

Lebanese leaders agreed on Thursday to start talks next week on rebuilding a
government after Hezbollah walked out of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri's
coalition, testing political faultlines across the Middle East. - Reuters

Vice President Biden and
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Thursday reiterated their commitment to
the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of this year, at their
first meeting since a new Iraqi government was formed last month, the
government's spokesman said. – Washington
Post

Iraq's Muslim and Christian religious leaders on Thursday called for a united
front in protecting Christians following a spate of attacks against them. - Reuters

A trial due to open in Nigeria at the end of the month is set to disclose
embarrassing details of an extensive arms smuggling operation run by Iran's
Revolutionary Guards to supply guerrillas in West Africa. -Telegraph

Iran's proposal for a tour of its nuclear sites floundered on Thursday after
China effectively rejected the invitation and Russia cautioned such a trip
could never replace U.N. inspections or talks between Tehran and world powers.
- Reuters

Isolation, international sanctions and the removal of subsidies all herald
rocky times ahead for Iran’s redoubtable and durable president - Economist

With U.S. Middle East peace
efforts at an impasse, the Obama administration has sought new ideas from
outside experts on how to advance the peace process. One task force has
been convened by Sandy Berger and Stephen Hadley, former national security
advisers to Presidents Clinton and George W. Bush, respectively, to offer
recommendations on the Middle East peace process to the National Security
Council. - Politico

Israel’s next war could be fought on several fronts and result in far more
destruction and casualties on all sides than recent conflicts. – Aviation
Week

Turkey has urged Israel to sack Avigdor Lieberman, its controversial foreign
minister, escalating a protracted row that has badly damaged one of the Middle
East's most important pro-western alliances. - Telegraph

Kuwait's Interior Minister
Sheikh Jaber Khaled Al-Sabah submitted his resignation on Thursday over the death
of a detainee allegedly as a result of police torture, said a government
official. – Telegraph

The spate of clashes involving
Jordan's powerful tribes -- and the recourse to tribal law over state justice
-- have shaken stability in Jordan, where tribal loyalty has for decades
underpinned the monarchy and the country's security forces. - Reuters

A Muslim policeman charged
with shooting a Christian man dead on a train in southern Egypt will be tried
in a state security court for premeditated murder, the state news agency said
Thursday. - Reuters

President Obama met for
more than an hour Thursday at the White House with five advocates for greater
civil liberties and human rights in China, just days before Chinese President
Hu Jintao's arrival in Washington for a state visit. – Washington
Post

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke called Thursday for China to follow through
on its pledges to open up its market to foreign firms, seeking to ensure that
next week's state visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao leads to lasting
results. – Wall
Street Journal

China's recent test flight of a stealth fighter illustrated a worrisome
"disconnect" between its military and civilian leaders, Defense
Secretary Robert M. Gates said Friday. – Los
Angeles Times

China will not bow to foreign demand for faster gains in the yuan and will
stick to its gradualist approach in currency reform, senior officials said on
Friday, indicating Chinese President Hu Jintao may push back if President
Barack Obama presses him on the issue next week. - Reuters

Josh Rogin reports: The U.S. policy of supporting Taiwan through sales of
U.S. weapons is the biggest irritant in the increasingly complicated U.S.-China
relationship. This week, just before Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to
Washington, a potential new round of arms sales to Taiwan threatens to
overshadow the Obama-Hu summit. – The
Cable

What has happened to the “harmonious world” that China’s president, Hu Jintao,
once championed? Where is the charm offensive that was meant to underpin it?
Recent revelations about its military programmes are the latest Chinese moves to
have unsettled the world. Strip the charm from Chinese diplomacy and only the
offensive is left. - Economist

Open Letter: In an open letter released on January 13, nine human rights
and foreign policy organizations pressed President Obama to make a shift in
U.S.-Chna policy by meeting with dissidents in advance of the state visit of
General Secretary Hu Jintao on January 19 and “speaking frankly abou the
deterioration in human righs in China” to Hu during the leaders’ meetings - Foreign
Policy Initiative

Henry Kissinger writes: The upcoming summit between the American and Chinese
presidents is to take place while progress is being made in resolving many of
the issues before them, and a positive communique is probable. Yet both leaders
also face an opinion among elites in their countries emphasizing conflict
rather than cooperation – Washington
Post

Thomas Donnelly writes: Whether or not Hu Jintao had been briefed on the J-20
test-flight schedule is immaterial: The decision to invest in such an airplane
no doubt began well before his rule and is a reflection of the ambitions that
China’s leaders – indeed, probably a majority of Chinese people – share.
They’ve sent a message that the Aussies (and Japanese and Koreans and Indians)
hear loud and clear. What does the Obama administration hear? - The
Weekly Standard Blog

Michael Green writes: Next week Chinese President Hu Jintao will travel to the
United States for his eighth meeting with President Obama, his first state
visit with an U.S. president, and his valedictory call on the American people
before he retires as part of the Chinese leadership transition in 2012. There
will be no breakthroughs, transformations, or stirring visions for the future
of U.S.-China relations, but the trip is badly needed in terms of relationship
management. It will also serve as a good opportunity for a stock-taking of
U.S.-China relations. – Shadow
Government

South Korea would have U.S.
support if it retaliates in the event of another North Korean attack, Defense
Secretary Robert M. Gates said Thursday as he called on all the countries in
the region to work together to ward off such a provocation. – Washington
Post

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates met with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak
and the defense minister here on Friday as South Korea and the United States
again declared their solidarity against North Korean aggression. – New
York Times

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates Jan. 13 urged North Korea to take concrete
steps to show it is "serious" about talks after the nuclear-armed
regime offered to resume dialogue after months of tension. - AFP

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Friday held out the possibility of a
resumption of six-party talks if North Korea ceases provocations and meets its
obligations, but said there was no sign of it changing its ways. - Reuters

China said that six-party talks were more "suitable" than the U.N.
Security Council for solving the nuclear standoff on the Korean peninsula, a
senior Chinese diplomat said on Friday, days before a summit with President
Barack Obama. - Reuters

Worried about North Korean
belligerence and an increasingly aggressive China, Japan's military wants to
cooperate in unprecedented ways with the United States and is even considering
putting its military in the line of fire in areas outside Japan, Japanese
defense officials said Thursday. – Washington
Post

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, in a speech to university students here,
pushed for the Japanese to look beyond a recent controversy over a U.S.
military base in Okinawa, arguing that a strong alliance between Tokyo and
Washington is vital to Asian security. – Wall
Street Journal

Japan's Coast Guard said Thursday that it had arrested the captain of a South
Korean fishing vessel after a brief standoff in disputed waters that Japan
considers its own. – Washington
Post

Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s appointment of Kaoru Yosano as economic and fiscal
policy minister came as a surprise to some, particularly since he’s a
documented critic of Mr. Kan’s party. – WSJ’s
Japan Real Time blog

Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Jan. 13 suggested Japan should consider
buying U.S. fighter jets, during talks in Tokyo, as the country plans for new
warplanes, a U.S. official said. In a meeting with Defense Minister Toshimi
Kitazawa, Gates "suggested Japan consider three U.S. planes to upgrade
their fleet," the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the F/A-18 Hornet and the
F-15 Eagle, the senior defense official said. - AFP

The United Nations' nuclear
watchdog has asked Myanmar's reclusive military junta to allow the agency's
inspectors to visit amid growing concern that the Southeast Asian nation's
rulers may be trying to build a nuclear weapon. – Washington
Times

Prison inmates sent to frontline fighting between the Burmese army and a rebel
faction have been used by the regime's military as human mine sweepers. - Telegraph

An Afghan presidential
commission has determined that military operations in the Kandahar area have
caused more than $100 million in damage to homes and farms over the past six
months, its chairman said in an interview on Thursday. – New
York Times

U.S. officials are rushing to strengthen local governments across southern
Afghanistan before the weather warms and militants have a chance to launch a
fresh round of attacks. – Associated
Press

U.S. and Pakistani leaders
publically praised each other and renewed pledges of cooperation during U.S.
Vice President Joe Biden visit to Islamabad on January 12. But despite
the displays of good faith, long-time observers of U.S.-Pakistani relations say
that the two sides have a long way to go to overcome their significant differences.
– Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty

US President Barack Obama will on Friday welcome Pakistani President Asif Ali
Zardari to the White House for talks on ties between the uneasy war partners,
spokesman Robert Gibbs said. - AFP

Security officials in
Kyrgyzstan are linking an attack on a synagogue last September, the bombing of
a sports arena in Bishkek in November, and the murder of four law enforcement
officers in early January to an Islamic radical group. - EurasiaNet

Kazakhstan's parliament on
Friday approved a referendum to extend President Nursultan Nazarbayev's term
for a third decade, clearing the way for the veteran leader of Central Asia's
largest economy to bypass two elections. - Reuters

Russia said further cuts in
nuclear weapons sought by the U.S. can be achieved only as part of a
multinational accord limiting other types of armaments, a position that dims
the Obama administration's chances for swift progress toward one of its biggest
foreign policy goals. – Wall
Street Journal

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has praised the emergence of what he
calls an increasingly democratic and stable world order, saying less
confrontation and more cooperation had created a "new paradigm" in
international relations. – Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty

A key ingredient to improving relations with the West will be the creation of a
common European missile shield with NATO, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said
Thursday, further raising the stakes in the reset of Russian-U.S. relations. – Moscow
Times

Lawyers for jailed former Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky vowed to press ahead
on multiple fronts to contest charges against their client on Thursday, while
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the case would not deter foreign
investors. – Moscow
Times

President Dmitry Medvedev opened a new front in the war against corruption
Thursday, ordering a thorough check of government officials' income
declarations and tough penalties against those who provided false information.
– Moscow
Times

The authorities in Belarus
have issued a warning to a prominent human rights group, accusing it of
unlawfully distorting information about the situation in the country amid a
continued crackdown on opponents of President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko. – New
York Times

The new head of Europe's top rights watchdog and a senior U.S. official urged
Belarus on Thursday to free those imprisoned after disputed elections, warning
that sanctions could be on the horizon. - Reuters

Poland’s prime minister
said Thursday that a Russian-led investigation of the crash that killed the
Polish president and dozens of other top officials in April was “incomplete”
and that his government would not accept a “unilateral account of the crash.” –
New
York Times

The crash last spring of a plane carrying Poland's president and other top
officials outside the Russian city of Smolensk unexpectedly drew Poland and
Russia closer together. Now, Russia's report on the crash is driving the
longtime antagonists apart again - and dividing Polish politicians, too. – Washington
Post

A former Ukrainian economy
minister was granted political asylum by the Czech Republic, a sign of
increasing international disquiet over the Ukrainian government's
investigations of leading opposition figures. – Wall
Street Journal (subscription required)

A former member of the
pro-Georgian South Ossetian leadership has warned that the Georgian leadership
needs to embark immediately on talks with Russia to avert a new conflict,
RFE/RL's Georgian Service reports. – Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty

U.K. commanders committed
troops to operations in Afghanistan because they feared that the army would be
cut if they didn't use them, the government's former envoy to Kabul said
Thursday. Sherard Cowper-Coles said he had been told by the former head
of the army, General Richard Dannatt, that if he didn't redeploy troops coming
back from Iraq, he would lose them in a future defense review. – Press
Association (WSJ Subscription required)

Italy’s highest court
revoked automatic immunity for Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi Thursday, a
move that could restart three criminal cases against him and further jeopardize
his tenuous hold on power. – New
York Times

Tunisia's longtime
president, rocked by weeks of unprecedented nationwide protests against his
rule, suggested Thursday that he would abide by a constitutional age cap for
head of state by not running again for office in 2014. He also promised freedom
of speech, including lifting restrictions on the press and Internet as well as
opening up the political system of his tightly controlled nation of 10 million.
– Los
Angeles Times

The mounting protests threaten not only to overturn a close United States ally
in the fight against terrorism but also to pull back the veneer of tranquil
stability that draws legions of Western tourists to Tunisia’s coastal resorts.
– New
York Times

U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay called on Tunisia on
Thursday to investigate police killings of scores of civilians and voiced
concerns that detained activists have been tortured. - Reuters

Mobs loyal to Laurent
Gbagbo, the president who refuses to give up power after losing an election,
burned and stoned five United Nations vehicles on Thursday, including an
ambulance, a United Nations spokesman said. – New
York Times

Al Qaeda declared on
Thursday it was behind the kidnap of two young Frenchmen in Niger, as
prosecutors began to unravel the murky circumstances of the battle in the
Sahara that led to their deaths. - Telegraph

Goodluck Jonathan swept to victory in Nigeria’s ruling party primary, taking a
big step towards turning his accidental presidency into a full mandate to
govern Africa’s biggest oil and gas producer. – Financial
Times

A regional group of
international monitors Thursday gave Haiti's government long-awaited
recommendations on how to resolve its disputed presidential election, one day
after the first anniversary of a massive earthquake devastated this beleaguered
island nation. – Washington
Times

Haitian President Rene Preval has reservations about a report from a regional
organization that challenges the official results of Haiti's chaotic November
elections, an official said on Thursday. - Haiti

Bernard Aronson writes: The
new leaders in the House, unlike their predecessors, support ratification of
the free-trade agreements with Colombia and Panama and count significantly more
free-traders among their ranks. A White House push to ratify the three
agreements as a package offers an opportunity for the kind of bipartisan cooperation
with Congress the administration says it seeks – Washington
Post

A military advisory panel
appears poised to recommend allowing female troops to serve in combat units
without any restrictions, calling the current prohibition an out-of-date idea
that unnecessarily discriminates against women. - Stars
and Stripes

An upcoming reorganization of the subcommittees of the U.S. House Armed
Services Committee will shift oversight of certain weapons programs, including
Navy and Marine Corps tactical jets, according to committee staff. – Defense
News

U.S. Air Force Secretary Michael Donley says the service is committed to
funding an F-16 life extension, especially in light of the most recently
announced Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) slip, as well as a new bomber aircraft in
the forthcoming Fiscal 2012 budget due next month on Capitol Hill. – Aviation
Week

General Dynamics’ Electric Boat is in the hunt for more engineers as it gears
up for the U.S. Navy’s replacement program for the Ohio-class ballistic missile
submarines — one of the service’s biggest shipbuilding programs for decades to
come — President John Casey says. – Aviation
Week

Accusations from supporters
that Private Manning is being mistreated, perhaps to pressure him to testify
against Mr. Assange, have rallied many on the political left to his defense. – New
York Times

The Justice Department
prosecutor who led government efforts to prevent a number of serious security
threats to the nation, including the attempted bombing of Times Square, the al
Qaeda plot to bomb the New York subway system and the attempted detonation of a
bomb aboard an airliner on Christmas Day 2009, announced his resignation
Thursday. – Washington
Times

Bruce Riedel writes: Al Qaeda has been undeniably tenacious, but we should keep
its successes in perspective. The organization is not Nazi Germany or the
Soviet Union. Smart policies that isolate it from the majority of Muslims,
along with continued attacks on its havens and its ideology, are likely to
eventually bring about the group's demise. – Los
Angeles Times

Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton, adopting a tone reminiscent of the Bush administration, blasted Arab
governments for stalled political change, warning that extremists were
exploiting a lack of democracy to promote radical agendas across the Middle
East. – Wall
Street Journal

Editorial: When the United States does not advocate strongly for freedom, other
democracies tend to retreat and autocracies feel emboldened. If the disturbing
trend documented by Freedom House is to be reversed, Mr. Obama will need to
make freedom a higher foreign policy priority. – Washington
Post

Jackson Diehl writes:
It may be too late for the United States to head off a rolling social upheaval
in the Middle East this year - or a war involving Hezbollah and Hamas. But if
it follows up on what Clinton has been saying, it can at least place itself on
the right side of those events. – Washington
Post

Laura Rozen reports: World
leaders are arriving in Washington to attend Richard Holbrooke's memorial
service at the Kennedy Center Friday, which President Barack Obama and
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are both due to attend…Holbrooke, meanwhile,
is "proving very hard to replace," a U.S. diplomat tells POLITICO.
"My understanding is that the secretary wants someone senior and is
interviewing lots of people." – Politico

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