Augustinian delay

The European Union’s sixth-biggest country has a hard choice over the euro

POLAND’S entry into the euro is imminent—in theory. With relatively healthy public finances, it should easily qualify. The economy is slowing but it is still the fastest-growing among big EU countries. Germany wants Poland in, at one time even talking of it joining in 2015. Yet Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform-led government has an opaque public line, promising only to join when the conditions are right.

The truth is that Poland faces a tricky dilemma. Mr Tusk has no wish to adopt the euro in its present crisis. But since the likely solution involves greater political and fiscal integration, it could become harder to join later. Mr Tusk won reassuring caveats for the EU’s ten non-euro “outs” in the euro-zone’s fiscal compact, but worries about losing out in a multispeed Europe persist. “The necessary measures to save the euro zone will lead to its closer political integration,” says Mikolaj Dowgielewicz, vice-governor of the Council of Europe Development Bank, and a former Europe minister. “Unfortunately, from the point of view of the Poles, Czechs, Swedes and others outside the block it means the EU is becoming a two-tier club.”

For years, Poles have seen euro membership as a priority on security grounds. But the danger now is that, as an out, Poland may lose influence in Brussels. This matters especially because of negotiations on the 2014-20 EU budget, which could yield structural funds worth over €67 billion (Poland will get the biggest share of the money). The Poles argue that more EU spending can help pull the block out of stagnation. But big net contributors like Britain, Germany and the Netherlands are unsympathetic. France is pushing for cuts in the structural funds even as it defends the wasteful common agricultural policy. “It will be a catastrophe for Europe if the conclusion of these negotiations is a cut of everything in the budget that stimulates investment, national reforms and regional development while one interest group—farmers—continue to have their income support preserved,” comments Piotr Serafin, the new Europe minister.

Mr Tusk will keep trying to rally the “outs” to avoid them being sidelined. Yet he also has reasons to avoid joining the single currency for as long as possible. The free-floating zloty was an advantage in the financial crisis. A weaker currency supported exports and foreign investment; it also raised the value of EU funds, which are euro-denominated.

Surveys suggest that the euro crisis has turned Poles from enthusiasts (around 60% backed euro membership a few years ago) into pessimists (only 25% now favour joining, with 68% against). The opposition Law and Justice Party taps this sentiment. It appeals to victims of Poland’s breakneck social change and structural reforms, such as the millions of public-sector workers and the young unemployed. Civic Platform’s junior coalition partner has also recently dragged the government into an ethics scandal, with a second now forcing Mr Tusk to make a public statement about his son. A general election is due no later than 2015. The government cannot risk making euro entry part of its programme. Yet unless it joins soon, Poland could be forced into a second-class status in Europe, which it would never have chosen.