8 High-Priced Non-Tender Candidates

A player’s years of arbitration eligibility provide an opportunity for value, as teams are able to retain veteran assets without being forced to commit to future seasons — as is often necessary in the free agent market. But there can come a time where even talented and still-useful players have pushed their arb price tag too high to justify the tender of a contract.

With performance and/or injury issues marring the 2016 seasons of these eight established big leaguers, their already-lofty salary starting points could conceivably prompt their respective teams to send them onto the open market:

Lucas Duda, 1B, Mets (5+ service class, $6.725MM 2016 salary): Back issues appear to have ended Duda’s campaign after just 145 plate appearances, and they weren’t terribly productive ones. In that relatively small sample, his walk rate fell even as he put more balls on the ground and made less hard contact than in his productive prior campaigns. The result was a below-average .231/.297/.431 batting line. With health and platoon questions at play, the Mets could well be forced to look for an alternative approach at the position.

Early prediction: Non-tender

Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Yankees (5+, $5.6MM): Despite his struggles, Eovaldi seemed for much of the year to be a fairly sure thing to be tendered a contract. He continued to show signs of promise in spite of the inconsistencies — a career-best 9.3% swinging strike rate, for instance — and at worst would appear to be a late-inning pen candidate with a fastball that sits at 97 even when he’s starting. But a devastating elbow injury means that Eovaldi won’t pitch next year. The Yankees aren’t likely to pay up just to prepare the righty for free agency, so the only way he stays in New York is through some kind of multi-year arrangement.

Early prediction: Non-tender, barring multi-year agreement

Jake McGee, RP, Rockies (5+, $4.8MM): Brought in to be a power late-inning lefty, McGee has faltered — and not just in the thin air of Coors Field. He sits at a 5.26 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9, with his swinging strike percentage (12.3% last year, 8.7% in 2016) plummeting along with his velocity (93.5 mph average four-seamer, down from a 2014 peak of 96.4). McGee has also spent time on the DL with a knee injury. Despite those difficulties, it will be hard for Colorado to part with McGee’s upside, especially having shipped out Corey Dickerson to acquire him last winter and given the going rate for quality pen arms on the open market. But with little in the way of encouraging signs, that just might be what happens.

Early prediction: Non-tender

Shelby Miller, SP, Diamondbacks (3+, $4.35MM): Miller’s struggles are well documented, and he has spent the second half of the year working through his issues at Triple-A. The results have been fairly promising thus far — a 3.52 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over 46 innings — and the lengthy stint has also impacted his future contract status. Because he now won’t top four years in total MLB service time by year end, Miller will remain under Arizona’s control for an additional season. That certainly impacts the cost-benefit equation, and makes him a likely tender candidate despite a fairly high salary and significant recent performance concerns.

Early prediction: Tender

Tommy Milone, SP, Twins (4+, $4.5MM): Things didn’t start off well for Milone, who was outrighted off of the 40-man roster one month into the 2016 season. He was rather masterful at Triple-A, running up a 1.66 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and a minuscule 0.7 BB/9 in seven starts, but things haven’t improved upon his return to the majors. Plus, Milone is now stuck on the shelf with a biceps problem. The odds seem good that he’ll be permitted to walk this fall.

Early prediction: Non-tender

Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins (5+, $7.25MM): It has been an underwhelming and injury-plagued season for the 30-year-old, who owns a .255/.290/.390 batting line with seven home runs in 284 plate appearances. With his power dwindling, Plouffe’s walk rate (4.2%) sits at about half of the level it was over 2014-15. Plus, defensive metrics have soured on the glove and Miguel Sano is arguably in need of everyday time at the hot corner. The Pirates just extended David Freese for two years and $11MM, which makes an $8MM+ payday to Plouffe seem a bit steep in light of his struggles. His time in Minnesota could end with a non-tender rather than a trade, particularly if a new GM decides it’s time to trim salary and focus on future assets.

Early prediction: Non-tender

Ben Revere, OF, Nationals (5+, $6.25MM): Brought in to handle the bulk of the load in center after a solid 2015 season, Revere has been a below-replacement-level player. He not only carries a miserable .215/.261/.302 slash over 335 plate appearances, but has gone just 11-for-16 in stolen base attempts despite typically rating as one of the game’s best bag swipers. While the Nats may well desire a left-handed hitter capable of playing center for 2017, the team may not be willing to pay quite as much as Revere will command in hopes that he can bounce back.

Early prediction: Non-tender

Trevor Rosenthal, RP, Cardinals (4+, $5.6MM): Coming into the year, Rosenthal was one of the game’s better closers. But while his velocity and strikeouts remain, he has permitted 7.3 walks per nine and posted a 5.13 ERA on the year. And now Rosenthal is on the DL with apparent shoulder and forearm issues. There’s at least some chatter that he could move to a starting role, and no suggestion as of yet that the organization is inclined to part with its two remaining years of control, but Rosenthal represents a rather costly roll of the dice.

Comments

i do not think the yankees will tender nathan eovaldi.they need every roster spot this winter.i believe they will non tender eovaldi,ackley,layne,shreve,yates,barbato, bleier,graham,lindgren,mullee,parker,pazos,pinder,rumbelow,swarzak

Mets don’t have many position players that are trade bait, their team batting is not good. All their good players are either free agents or opt out players.. They already have Wright on the books and not playing, I don’t see them taking a chance on Duda. They can bring up Dominick Smith and find a cheaper back-up.

I agree they will not take a chance on Duda, but we also can’t act like Wright is that prohibitive of a contract with it being 75% insured. He’s not cheap to be sitting out, but at least he’s not being paid all of it. That being said, the Mets need to add some infielders at the expense of a pitcher or two. This team has almost zero future inside the diamond.

The Mets used the W right money to sign Cespedes. It’s hard to deal pitchers who have injuries like bone chips. The Mets don’t have too many options to trade for players and the free agent market is weak. If Cespedes opts out they will be in trouble.

I bet Duda wishes he signed an extension . I can’t see the Mets not tendering a interact because his power in the middle of the lineup is missed. Mets do have plenty of young position players however .Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith are future stars for the Mets at SS and 1b. Infielders. Gavin Cecchini and Brandon Nimmo are first rd picks from 2012 and ’11 and both having big yrs in AAA . They can be used as Trade bait or depth in case Walker / Cespedes leaves .

You wouldn’t be able to move Duda at this point. Who would take him knowing that they have to go to arbitration and pay him at LEAST the $6M+ that he made this year? And what do you think you’d get back for him?

There is zero chance the Diamondbacks non-tender Miller, If they were even remotely toying with the idea, the deal with the Marlins would have been approved. For better or worse, he’ll be tendered, if only to make sure that the team can still claim three years of control over him while trying to move him later (though I suspect they will simply hold on to him and try to “fix” him).

Mercer, Watson and Cole are no brainers.. i’d guess Mercer about 3-3.5M and Watson around 5M Cole will also get a pretty huge raise, though if he doesn’t turn around his current downward trend it might not be as much as he’d like.

Locke and Nicasio almost assuredly gone unless they think they can keep one of them under 4M for long relief.

Hughes has had a down year. I’d expect him to be a pirate next season and probably rebound. Drew i’m less certain about. He can come in and eat innings.. won’t cost an arm and a leg and could easily be molded into a fair pitcher. The pirates already have a handful of guys that could fill that role for much less money…

its possible, since Juan wen to the pen he as done much better. Not great but better.. Also too along those lines.. in Locke’s limited pen action he’s been pretty good too. 0 runs in 5 games but the opponent OBP is still fairly high.. of course that’s just 9 innings. I think both of them really depend on their ARB estimate But i think both are fairly easily replaceable internally with someone making league minimum.

I really wouldn’t say they traded for Drew.. they traded to get rid of Liriano His ARB number shouldn’t go up much though.. I can see it either way.

In agreement with all but McGee. He’s had an awful year but had a lot happened to his health.

I feel like $4.8MM is worth the risk. Cishek signed a $10MM/2yr deal with Seattle Mariners with incentives. I feel like McGee could get something similar. should he be non-tendered. (and thus making tendering him a good idea).

The Mets should non-tender Duda and sign one of the low-mid tier free agent first basemen as a stopgap for Dominic Smith, or bring back Duda on an affordable deal and potentially trade him depending on his performance and Smith’s readiness.