Energy Market Analysis - 09-03-2017

Gas prices displayed losses yesterday as a weaker demand forecast and comfortable supply levels weighed on the market. Coal prices also continued to decrease, while oil prices tumbled on the back of the latest EIA report.

A mild weather outlook and improved wind levels helped towards losses at the front of the power curve yesterday morning. Further downward pressure was also provided in the afternoon by falling gas, following losses on the oil and coal markets.

Market Open

Market Open

Weaker Brent and coal continues to pressure down gas contracts this morning, although there is a possibility of a technical rebound later in the session. Demand levels are expected to fall over the coming days due to mild weather, while UKCS production has also improved, adding to the bearish sentiment.

The trend is unchanged this morning as power contracts take direction from weakening coal, gas and oil. Temperatures are also set to improve further which will reduce consumption in the UK and the outlook for wind generation is healthy.

Brent Summary

Brent 1st-nearby prices displayed strong losses yesterday following the release of the EIA report; both WTI and Brent have now fallen below their 2.5 month trading range. A rise in crude stocks last week, as well as an increase in domestic production were the main factors behind the bearish trend.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity recorded a small decrease – closing at 44.20ppt and £44.32/MWh, respectively.

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