US election: Why America's fate lies at the hands of independent voters

Just days away from the US presidential election, most polls show Barack Obama
and Mitt Romney tied at the national level. But masked in those numbers is a
surprise: Romney holds a double-digit lead among independent voters. Will
that matter, asks Mark McKinnon.

Just days away from this year's election, most polls show the incumbent and challenger tied at the national levelPhoto: Dermot Tatlow

By Mark McKinnon

1:30PM GMT 03 Nov 2012

Will November 6 be Independents' Day in America? Voters not affiliated with either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party may determine whether President Barack Obama or former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney wins the 2012 presidential election.

In 2008, independent voters represented nearly one-third of the electorate.

Obama won that group by eight percentage points over the Republican candidate, Senator John McCain. In the 2010 midterm elections, however, Democrats lost independents by 19 percentage points, and Republicans made a historic sweep of seats in Congress.

Just days away from this year's election, most polls show the incumbent and challenger tied at the national level. But masked in those numbers is a surprise: Romney holds a double-digit lead among independent voters.

As always, the answer is: It depends on who turns out to vote, and where.

Party affiliation changes over time and with the political tides.

Independents reached a record high of 40 per cent of American adults at the end of last year as reported by Gallup. Their numbers are growing as the two parties are shrinking.

But it is actual voters who matter. Who will show up on Tuesday, Election Day? Independents are traditionally harder to motivate than partisan Democrats or Republicans. They will likely account for less than one-third of those who vote this year.

With a tight election, every vote counts. Over 90 per cent of Democratic and Republican voters are likely to vote for their party's candidate. However, independents can swing either way. In 2000, they favoured Republican George W. Bush, but in 2004, Democrat John Kerry.

To be an independent is not to be undecided. Some are fiscally conservative and socially liberal and therefore don't fit neatly in the two party boxes.

Others eschew labels, turned off by the negative campaigning from both sides. And some are disappointed in Democrats not being progressive enough or Republicans not being conservative enough.

When pushed, many independents do lean Democrat or Republican. But they are not necessarily brand loyal. It's these folks, along with the truly undecided among them, who can change the election outcome, depending on how many party faithful do or do not turnout.

Nationally, there are still many unknowns that can drive turnout across the political spectrum. We'll call them the five Ws.

First, weather. With the lingering impact of the super storm Sandy still being felt with flooding damage and power outages, voter turnout in the mid-Atlantic states may be down. This probably hurts Obama more than Romney.

Next, there are wallet issues. The economy has not recovered. No matter what economic experts project, voters vote based on their own personal economy, what they see with their own eyes and feel in their own wallets. Will voters be patient with the president or are the ready for new leadership?

Then, women. More women than men vote, and they were strong supporters of Obama in 2008. But Romney has closed the gender gap.

And, fourth, there is wind. The momentum was Mitt's, the wind at his back, but this may have stalled with the storm. Obama has been on the airwaves, presidential in a time of crisis.

Then, finally, waning enthusiasm among Democrats means independents must be won, especially those in the battleground states. If President Obama does not win enough independents, he must make up for those numbers with a higher turnout in the Democratic base – in some places over his historic 2008 results.

With the election based on an electoral college win not a popular vote majority, Ohio remains the state to watch. This battleground state has voted for the winner in every presidential election, Republican and Democrat, since 1964. It is a must-win state for both candidates or the electoral college math gets considerably more difficult.

As in the rest of the nation, the economy is Ohio voters' top concern. This should be to Romney's advantage. But many Ohioans are blue-collar, industrial workers, with one-in-eight jobs auto-related. And Obama's attacks on Romney's position on the auto bailouts are likely hitting home.

That's why the key to victory in Ohio may be winning independents. The latest polls there show Obama leading overall, with a sizeable advantage among early voters according to some surveys. But the GOP questions these figures as early vote totals so far among Democrats are down over 2008 while up for Republicans. Romney is still ahead among independents in Ohio; he just has to get them to the polls come Election Day.

But don't wake King George yet. Independents' Day 2012 may not be all that revolutionary.

Mark McKinnon, a former Republican strategist who worked on the campaigns of George W Bush and John McCain, is a co-founder of No Labels, a non-profit organisation dedicated to bipartisanship and problem solving in politics.