Handicapping Anwar Ibrahim’s Odds for Malaysia’s Premiership

Malaysia’s opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim (C) speaks to his supporters in Kuala Lumpur, while flanked by his wife, after he was acquitted of sodomy charges.

Just hours after Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was acquitted of charges that he sodomized a male former aide, attention was already turning to whether he would contest the next national elections in Malaysia – and more importantly, whether he could win.

Now that he won’t be spending time in jail, it’s widely assumed Mr. Anwar will challenge Prime Minister Najib Razak in the next national vote, which must be called by March 2013, though many observers say it could come much earlier. Addressing a crowd of supporters at the Kuala Lumpur High Court Monday morning, Mr. Anwar asked, “where will we meet in the end?” after which the crowd roared “Putrajaya,” referring to Malaysia’s master-planned government administrative center near Kuala Lumpur.

Political wonks, though, were divided when it came to handicapping his chances.

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For some, the popularity and fanfare surrounding Mr. Anwar – particularly given the depth of anti-government feelings in this highly-polarized nation – mean he at least has a decent shot of becoming the next prime minister if the government makes good on its promise to hold a free and fair election.

“The current tea leaves thinking is that he has a 50-50 chance of beating Najib,” said James Chin, a political science professor at the Malaysian campus of Australia’s Monash University. “In other words, it will be a real competition” now, he said. Previously, Mr. Chin said he expected Mr. Anwar to be found guilty and be tied up in appeals for much of this year – leaving his political organization without its most prominent leader in the run-up to the next election. But now, the party will be able to focus almost exclusively on getting organized and making its best run.

With his acquittal Monday, “Anwar’s stature and credibility has received a huge boost,” added Professor Joseph Liow, an associate dean at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies who specializes in Malaysian politics. “He will approach the election with all guns blazing.”

But Professor Liow noted the ruling was a “tricky one” for Mr. Anwar, in that it could possibly harm the opposition’s prospects by bolstering Prime Minister Najib’s reformist credentials. Mr. Najib has sought to burnish his reputation as a reformer after the ruling coalition’s narrowest victory in five decades at the last election, and his supporters were already hailing Monday’s decision as evidence that Malaysia has a more-free and fair judiciary than is widely believed. By removing the sting of one of the opposition’s longstanding complaints against the government, the ruling could lead to a less coherent assault on the governing coalition, Mr. Liow said.

Other analysts agreed the ruling could be spun as positive for both the opposition and the Prime Minister, and maintained that it was too early to tell what the impact on Malaysia’s political landscape could be.

“The number of undecided voters is very small,” which in turn could reduce the decision’s effect, said Ibrahim Suffian, head of the Malaysia-based Merdeka Center for Opinion Research, an organization that collects public opinion in the country. He added that the people likely to be most influenced by the decision would be new voters, who are more keenly looking at policy papers rather than “emotional and sensational issues.”

According to latest surveys conducted by the Merdeka Center, Prime Minister Najib’s approval rating is 59%.

The ruling will “not have much impact on election results,” added Barry Wain, a writer-in-residence at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore and author of a book about former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. He said he believes Malaysia is broadly split into “two camps” — between those who support and oppose the government.

“The decision won’t change those lines,” he said.

Some residents, meanwhile, say they are skeptical Mr. Anwar could ever stand a chance in a national vote because they doubt the vote will be clean. But Mr. Najib’s administration has insisted such concerns are misplaced and that it intends to hold a free and fair vote.

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