Is it true to say majority of MPs would stop a no deal Brexit?

Earlier today Amber Rudd, the new work and pensions secretary, said that parliament would stop a no deal Brexit going ahead. (See 9.18am.) A majority of MPs would oppose a no Brexit, she said. Labour is also making this argument forcefully, and other opposition parties too. But is it actually true?

The bit about a majority of MPs being opposed to a no deal Brexit is almost certainly right. There are Brexiters who think the risks associated with a no deal Brexit would be not excessive, or at least manageable, but they are a minority in the House of Commons, and easily outnumbered by the majority (almost all opposition MPs, and a sizeable chunk of Tories) who think that the risks would be unacceptable.

But it does not follow from that that this “majority” would stop Brexit, for two reasons in particular.

First, the “majority” would have to coalesce around an alternative; a majority against something, a blocking majority, would have to convert into an enabling majority, ready to vote through an agreed plan. That is by no means inevitable because there are big divisions among these MPs, of which the most important is the split between those who want to stop Brexit and those who believe it must proceed.

Second, MPs can pass or block laws and motions, but they can’t dictate to the executive. Ultimately decisions about Brexit are taken by the government. The EU negotiates with Theresa May, not with parliament. It was May’s decision to trigger article 50. She needed the authority of parliament, through the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal Act), but it was her to decision to press the button.

The only failsafe way by which a majority of MPs could stop a no deal Brexit would to oust May and replace her with a PM willing to ask the EU to suspend article 50 until a Brexit deal has been agreed. But Tory efforts in the last few days to replace May have failed, and if she were to go, she would probably be replaced by someone advocating an even harder line on Brexit.

Alternatively, MPs could pass a vote of no confidence in May and replace her with a prime minister running a new administration. In the past the loss of a no confidence vote would automatically trigger a general election. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, that is no longer the case, and, before an election took place, an alternative PM would have 14 days to win a confidence vote in the Commons. But the legislation does not specify who would get to try. (A new leader from the governing party, the opposition leader, someone else entirely?) It is hard to see the Tories losing a no confidence motion, and even harder to imagine the Queen inviting Jeremy Corbyn to form a minority government if it is inevitable that he will lose a confidence vote.

Labour says its preferred option would be a general election. But the Fixed-term Parliaments Act also comes into play here, and if the no confidence route fails, then the only other way an election can be triggered would be through a two-thirds majority of MPs, meaning May would have to order her party to vote for one. It is not inconceivable that she might choose this route as a means of trying to resolve a Brexit impasse, but it does seem most improbable. The EU would probably agree to suspend article 50 pending the arrival of a new government, but an election could result in another hung parliament, with no majority for any alternative Brexit course of action.

That leaves the legislative and resolution options. This morning John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, said Labour could use “a war of attrition” to block the legislation due to be passed before 29 March to implement Brexit. (See 12pm.) But most of this legislation is about making Brexit practical. Unless MPs can repeal the EU Withdrawal Act, Brexit will happen. Perhaps, if MPs were to sabotage legislation and make a no deal Brexit even more chaotic than expected, the PM might blink, and suspend article 50, but, as a strategy, that’s a bit of a long shot.

The other main options involve passing motions or amendments requiring May to go negotiate an alternative Brexit, or to make Brexit conditional on a referendum. But there are huge practical problems in organising a referendum at short notice (well explained in this Constitution Unit briefing paper - pdf) and in practice it would not happen without a government committed to passing the relevant legislation. The same problem applies to the plan to get MPs to vote for an alternative strategy. As David Natzler, clerk of the Commons, explained recently, May could just ignore this.

So, to sum up, despite what opposition leaders are saying, it would be very hard for a majority of MPs to block a no deal Brexit if the prime minister were determined to go ahead with one. In practice, would May back down? Perhaps. But that would primarily be as a result of political pressure, not because of procedural powers available to MPs.

MPs told it would take two years from no deal Brexit for UK to have fully effective customs system

It will take two years to have a fully operational customs system at the UK border if the UK crashes out of the European Union without a deal, MPs were told this afternoon. As the Press Association reports, the Commons Treasury committee was told that “functioning but clearly sub-optimal” arrangements could be in place on March 29 2019 when the UK leaves but there would be a risk of failing to collect tariffs owed on imports.

Officials also said the prospect of traffic chaos at ports was a “known unknown” and could not be ruled out.

We have in place plans that in the event of us leaving on March 29 with no deal, we will be able to operate a functioning customs border with the EU.

We would start off with a functioning but clearly sub-optimal customs border. There would likely be some fiscal risk attached to that depending on what tariff decisions are ...

I think we are looking at a minimum of two years from the no deal to get to a point where you can say we have a steady-state system where we are comfortable that we can manage all the fiscal risks in a way we would like and trade can flow in the way we would like.

Downing Street has played down reports (see 2.53pm) that Sunday’s EU summit, where the Brexit deal is supposed to be signed off, could be cancelled. This is from PoliticsHome’s Kevin Schofield.

Kevin Schofield (@PolhomeEditor)

Asked if Sunday's special EU summit to sign off the Brexit deal could be cancelled because of ongoing talks deadlock, the PM's spokesman said: "A summit has been called, an agenda has been published and we look forward to attending." Which isn't a "no".

But earlier today Valdis Dombrovskis, a European commission vice president said that for Sunday’s summit to go ahead, “we will need to have agreed beforehand the political declaration on the future relationship and we are not there yet”. He added:

Sherpas are due to meet on Friday. They will need to see a final text before then, and the Commission stands ready to consider the text and take any action at any time.

Well-wishers have been sending messages of support to second world war veteran and political activist Harry Leslie Smith, who is critically ill in hospital with suspected pneumonia following a fall. As the Press Association reports, the 95-year-old, who has also been a Guardian contributor, was in a critical condition on Wednesday, according to his son John, whom Harry was visiting in Canada when the accident occurred. The PA story goes on:

Tweeting from his father’s account, John wrote on Wednesday: “24 hours in and Harry is still in emerg waiting for an ICU bed thanks to the politics of austerity in Ontario.”

He added that the Barnsley-born activist had been allowed to drink a cup of tea.

Back in the UK, friends and supporters were sending their best wishes, led by opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn and other Labour MPs.

Mr Corbyn wrote: “Very sorry to hear this. Please pass on my best to Harry. We need him to get well soon as the National Health Service, and our movement, needs him,” while deputy leader Tom Watson added: “You are in my thoughts Harry.”

Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn)

Very sorry to hear this. Please pass on my best to Harry. We need him to get well soon as the National Health Service, and our movement, needs him.

Smith, who was a pilot in the second world war, spoke passionately about the NHS at the Labour party conference in 2014.

He has been a notable campaigner against austerity, gaining a big following on social media and even starting his own podcast.

Stars from the world of entertainment also sent their best wishes.

Chocolat author Joanne Harris wrote: “Thinking tonight of Harryslaststand, a firebrand and a hero,” while actor Adrian Lester described him as “an inspiration”.

The hashtag #IStandWithHarry trended on Wednesday morning as people continued to send their support.

John sent a string of updates on his father’s condition, describing his cough as “bone shattering” as he slept again on Wednesday afternoon.

Harry initially went in to hospital on Tuesday, tweeting himself before his son took over: “Bugger of a day, had a fall and now I am in hospital. It’s nothing just low blood pressure, but signing off for the next few hours.”

After the huge show of support for his father, John tweeted: “He sleeps and when he wakes for a moment I tell him about the love flowing out from Twitter. ‘tell them I love them all.”’

I missed this yesterday, but it is worth flagging it; it’s from Vytenis Andriukaitis, Lithuania’s European commissioner, who has managed in one tweet to have a go at both the European Research Group (pictured at the top, from yesterday’s ERG press conference) and Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, who implicitly compared the EU to the Soviet Union in his Tory conference speech. Andriukaitis was an anti-communist activist before the Soviet Union disbanded.

Vytenis Andriukaitis (@V_Andriukaitis)

One of these photos 👇🏼 is from the press conference of the State of Emergency State Committee (GKCP) members at the #USSR Foreign Ministry.But I am not comparing anything.

Carwyn Jones, the Welsh first minister, met Theresa May earlier today to discuss Brexit. Afterwards he posted this on Twitter.

Carwyn Jones (@fmwales)

Meeting @theresa_may today. The PM has until Sunday to sort out a deal that works. The UK Govt. has slowly moved towards the approach we set out 2 years ago - a position which could be accepted by EU27 and command a majority in Parliament

Lunchtime summary

Theresa May has been urged by Tory MPs to renegotiate her Brexit deal. At PMQs Andrew Rosindell, a committed Brexiter, told May:

I agree with the people of Romford who are deeply unhappy by the proposed EU deal, which they believe does not represent the Brexit they voted for. Will she now, even at this late stage, please think again and instead lead our country in a new direction completely cutting away the tentacles of the EU over our cherished island nation once and for all?

But Neil Parish, who backed remain in the referendum, also expressed concerns. He said the Irish backstop “threatens the integrity of the UK” and advised May to listen to concerns raised by MPs. May defended her plans.

May has said that, while the Irish backstop was in place, the UK government would keep Great Britain aligned to single market regulations, and not just Northern Ireland. The backstop would keep the whole of the UK in the customs union, but theoretically it would allow GB and NI to diverge in terms of regulations. May ruled this out. But she also stressed that she did not want to use the backstop anyway and that, if it were in place, it might only be for “a matter of months”. See 1.18pm.

May has told MPs that voting down her deal could leave to the UK staying in the EU (see 12.09pm) - but also that the UK will definitely leave the EU on 29 March next year (see 12.38pm.)These flatly contradictory statements came after Amber Rudd, the new work and pensions secretary, told the Today programme this morning that parliament would not allow a no deal Brexit. (See 9.18am.)

May has been accused by the DUP of removing from her Brexit deal a clause that would have given Northern Ireland the final say over regulatory divergence from Great Britain. Nigel Dodds, the DUP leader at Westminster, asked May about this line in the joint report (pdf) agreed between the UK and the EU in December.

In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland.

He asked why the same assurance was not in the withdrawal agreement. “Did she push the delete button?” May replied by saying that these were issues for the UK as a whole, and that the Northern Ireland assembly could not take these decisions because it was suspended. This is from BBC Northern Ireland’s Jayne McCormack.

May has warned Spain that Gibraltar will not be excluded from negotiations on the UK’s future relationship with the EU. She told MPs that she was negotiating a deal that “works for the whole UK family and that includes Gibraltar”.

May has hinted that a Home Office review of sex work could provide evidence to justify law banning buying sex. (See 12.36pm.)

John Bercow has reprimanded a group of MPs for playing football in the House of Commons. As the Press Association reports, the speaker said the “historic” chamber should not be used for a kickabout, adding he had received “fulsome” letters of apology from three of the MPs involved. The SNP’s Hannah Bardell was filmed playing keepy-uppy with a football in the chamber and posing for photos with other MPs, including making use of the despatch boxes and Speaker’s chair, after the sitting had been adjourned on Tuesday. They had been due to play for the UK Women’s Parliamentary Football Club but had to cancel their first game as it was expected to clash with votes. Conservative former sports minister Tracey Crouch and Labour’s Alison McGovern, Louise Haigh and Stephanie Peacock were the other MPs kitted out in the Commons, with Bercow said to have given his permission. But today Bercow told MPs he did not approve the kickabout. He told MPs:

It has been brought to my attention that some football skills were displayed in the chamber yesterday evening after the House rose.

I am informed that the doorkeepers on duty told the members concerned that the chamber was not the place for this activity, however, those doorkeepers were advised that permission had been given.

Let me assure the House that that permission certainly did not come from me.

I have received gracious, indeed fulsome, letters of apology from (Crouch, Peacock and Haigh) in relation to this incident.

I think I can speak for us all when I say that our historic chamber should not be used for this type of activity and I gently remind colleagues if they are seeking to use the chamber outside of sitting hours beyond for the purpose of simply showing it to guests, frankly they should write to me asking for their request to be considered.

I have said what I have said, there are no hard feelings and I consider the matter to be closed.

Labour has just held a lobby briefing, and Jeremy Corbyn’s spokesman said that Conservatives were “no longer able to govern” in the light of the DUP decision to withhold support in the Commons. But there was no indication that Labour would call for a vote of no confidence soon.

The spokesman said that Labour wanted to consider the deal that the government had negotiated, and then submit its “alternative Brexit plan” at the time of the meaningful vote. Under that party’s plan the UK would remain in “a comprehensive customs union” with the EU which would “make unnecessary largely any kind of backstop arrangement”.

That remains in line with Labour’s conference policy to oppose May’s deal if it fails the party’s tests first and then, if it fails to pass the Commons, to push for a general election.

Corbyn met Nicola Sturgeon on Tuesday to discuss Brexit, but the spokesman would not discuss whether Labour and the SNP talked about a confidence vote. The spokesman said they discussed “the need to oppose and defeat their [the government’s Brexit] plans in parliament” and “the absolute necessity of preventing a no deal outcome”.

The spokesman was also asked why Corbyn was not present in the Commons on Monday night, when in voting on amendments on the finance bill, the government came within five votes of defeat on a child poverty amendment after the DUP unexpectedly sided with the opposition. He said:

We don’t comment on detailed whipping arrangements, Jeremy had permission to be absent from parliament, the decision of the DUP was taken at the last moment.

When asked if Corbyn was absent because he was “too tired” by one reporter, the spokesman added:

I’m not getting in the details. Jeremy has an extremely ambitious work schedule which he carries out with extraordinary energy.

Speaking to journalists after PMQs, the prime minister’s spokesman doggedly insisted the confidence and supply arrangement that underpins her governing majority remains in place - despite the DUP apparently being on strike. “It’s published and I’m not aware of any change to its status,” he said.

Pressed further, the spokesman simply added: “It’s our position that the confidence and supply arrangement is still in effect”.

Asked about the £1bn-plus in extra resources the DUP was promised to seal the deal, he said:

The money that has been agreed and is being paid down through the normal estimates process is for the people of Northern Ireland.

No10 Spokesman on the DUP failing to support the Government, despite the Confidence and Supply Deal; "Where votes have taken place the Government has won. It is our position that it is still in effect."

No 10 may be right when it says that it has not lost votes because of lack of support from the DUP. But that is only because on some votes it has accepted opposition amendments.

Faisal Islam (@faisalislam)

Government extraordinarily caves on sweep of amendments to Finance Bill after DUP promised further abstentions ... avoiding votes on distributional impacts etc.... opposition says it shows Government losing its majority. pic.twitter.com/dOAd7hwv8m