Outside of ABC, which hasn’t announced any renewals or cancellations as of this writing (5p ET, May 9) there’s only a handful of shows left to be decided. Look for that handful plus all of the ABC announcements by late Friday. I probably won’t update the list again until either very late Friday or early Saturday so be sure to check out our home page.

suckit @tvbythenumbers :)(You guys tortured me on CHUCK for years… but I still love ya)

One thing that won’t change between now and then is our biggest prediction miss: The Carrie Diaries. Our congratulations to Josh Schwartz and the rest of The Carrie Diaries team. Some will say “you missed Whitney” and we may yet miss a couple of ABC shows – but those misses are like a flyout to center field. The Carrie Diaries was more like a swing and a miss where you swing so hard that when you miss you fall down in the batter’s box and look silly.

]]>http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/broadcast/list-of-renewedcanceled-broadcast-scripted-shows-from-2012-13-season-so-far/feed/0stevebaronWhitney - Season 2ABC: Final Predictions For ‘Body Of Proof,’ ‘Nashville,’ ‘The Neighbors,’ ‘Malibu Country’ & Morehttp://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/abc-final-predictions-for-body-of-proof-nashville-the-neighbors-malibu-country-more/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/abc-final-predictions-for-body-of-proof-nashville-the-neighbors-malibu-country-more/#respondTue, 07 May 2013 15:46:00 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=180610Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows&#8217; rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Robert

Bill

Happy Endings

ABC

5%

0%

Red Widow

ABC

0%

0%

Family Tools

ABC

5%

0%

Malibu Country

ABC

45%

40%

Body of Proof

ABC

55%

60%

Neighbors, The

ABC

60%

60%

How to Live with Your Parents…

ABC

55%

75%

Last Man Standing

ABC

95%

90%

Nashville

ABC

99%

90%

Castle

ABC

100%

100%

Grey’s Anatomy

ABC

100%

100%

Middle, The

ABC

100%

100%

Modern Family

ABC

100%

100%

Once Upon a Time

ABC

100%

100%

Revenge

ABC

100%

100%

Scandal

ABC

100%

100%

Suburgatory

ABC

95%

100%

–5/10 Update: Happy Endings, Family Tools, How To Live With Your Parents have all been canceled. Body Of Proof and Red Widow have been canceled. Suburgatory, The Neighbors, Last Man Standing, The Middle, and Modern Family have been renewed.

–
In what’s a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final ABC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I’m quite confident in all but the shows predicted in the 40-75% range. If one or two of those go against my prediction I won’t be particularly surprised.

To address the picky commenters out there who’ll otherwise whine “You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!”, please take all of my guesses above 50% as “will be renewed” and those below 50% as “will be canceled” and you may interpret the “distance” from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
–
For those who’d like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I’ll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Happy Endings (some F)

0.49

Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23*

canceled

0.50

Red Widow

0.54

Last Resort*

canceled

0.57

Zero Hour*

canceled

0.58

Private Practice*

canceled

0.63

Malibu Country* (F)

0.65

666 Park Avenue*

canceled

0.68

Body Of Proof

0.72

Last Man Standing* (F)

0.74

The Family Tools

0.78

The Neighbors*

0.87

Nashville

0.94

Revenge

0.94

Suburgatory

1.01

Castle

1.09

The Middle

1.12

How To Live With Your Parents

1.15

Once Upon A Time

1.23

Scandal

1.40

Grey’s Anatomy

1.52

Modern Family

2.06

–Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the “old” Fall predictions will carry over.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

]]>http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/abc-final-predictions-for-body-of-proof-nashville-the-neighbors-malibu-country-more/feed/0stevebaronodds-makersBubble Watch: Will The Olympics Have NBC Back In Bed With ‘Community’ and ‘Whitney?’http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-will-the-olympics-have-nbc-back-in-bed-with-community-and-whitney/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-will-the-olympics-have-nbc-back-in-bed-with-community-and-whitney/#respondSun, 05 May 2013 15:43:59 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=181038

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Last Bubble Watch of the 2012-13 Season

If history holds, we’ll know all renewals and cancellations from the 2012-13 season by the end of next Friday, May 10, so by next Sunday nothing will be on the bubble.

Not much new this week, but Family Tools debuted on the list with cancellation predicted. So what of the 7 shows remaining on the bubble? Here’s an early glimpse at some of my “Oddsmakers” picks for Tuesday’s Renew/Cancel posts where Bill & I will give our “percentage of renewal” chances picks for all shows not already renewed or canceled (not just bubble shows). My percentages for the bubble shows could change (dramatically) between then and now.

Body of Proof: I’m leaning towards renewal (55%).

How to Live With Your Parents: not a lot of ratings history to make a pick, and it’s ratings are in the “could go either way” band. A true toss-up! But, 50% in oddsmakers is cowardly, so leaning towards cancellation (45% chance of renewal).

Malibu Country: If ABC sticks with a Friday comedy block, it definitely has a shot, but even then I’m leaning towards cancellation (40% chance of renewal).

Rules of Engagement: Unlike the others, this one isn’t a true toss-up based on ratings. But its ratings have been good enough where wheeling and dealing (Sony is involved in the show’s production) to keep the show around as schedule spackle didn’t seem completely ridiculous. But I’m more than leaning towards cancellation (33% chance of renewal).

Community: Of all the NBC comedy bubble shows, I like Community’s chances the least. I’m still leaning towards renewal (55%)

Whitney: More than leaning towards renewal. (75%).

Go On: Even more more than leaning towards renewal than Whitney(85%)

Speaking of NBC’s bubble comedies…

The text below comes from long-time reader Tom Shaw who has thought a lot about renewals, cancellations and scheduling needs. Tom was the person who coined the phrase “schedule spackle” in the comments way back when, so another piece this week involving, you guessed it, schedule spackle. Tom thinks about things much more from a scheduling perspective than I do. I haven’t spent any time thinking about what NBC will stick on Fridays next season. Tom has!

Will The Winter Olympics Give Whitney Another Shot?

NBC has a major project for this upcoming season: Rebuilding their comedies. With The Office finished, NBC only has one comedy with the numbers to (barely) warrant renewal: Parks & Recreation. Add the new Michael J Fox show (with 22 episodes), and that still leaves probably two more new shows in Fall (and possibly two more in Spring as well).

Complicating matters is the 2014 Winter Olympics. Running from February 6th to February 23rd, it provides NBC with a platform to launch new comedies on February 27th, but also a problem: they have to come up with shows to cover until January 30th, itself the first day of the February 2014 sweeps.

Let’s say NBC starts The Voice on September 9th (and why not, given how well it worked out this year). That means we’ll probably see NBC’s comedies premiere on September 19th. That gives NBC 20 weeks it has to cover until the Olympics. Even assuming NBC takes weeks off for Thanksgiving, Holiday specials, New Year’s, etc., that’s well over 13 weeks. I find it unlikely NBC keeps an Animal Practice-level flop on the air until the Olympics.

Or to summarize, NBC will be launching more Thursday comedies than ever before, will have every reason to delay starting new comedies until February, and will need extra episodes to cover until the Olympics. That’s the perfect recipe for spackle in bulk. I expect NBC to again schedule an hour of comedy spackle on Fridays.

Now, which shows? That’s the difficult question. I expect at least three shows to get spackle orders. In order of likelihood, by my estimation:

Go On – Produced by Universal, NBC may want to give it another shot.

Whitney – Produced by Universal, held up okay in various time slots.

New Normal – Not produced by Universal, and the numbers have dropped to “ugly even for NBC”. However, NBC may want to give it another chance, may see some value in keeping Ryan Murphy happy, and may want to demonstrate to showrunners that NBC will give their shows every chance. (If there are any “political” considerations, they are positive.)

Community – Yes, it could use 4 more episodes for domestic syndication. However, it already has a cable deal, there are no showrunners NBC wants to keep happy, and numbers have dropped down to nothing special. (I also still wonder if Sony/Comedy Central won’t go the Futurama route and give it a made-for-DVD wrap up movie they can chop up into 4 episodes.)

1600 Penn / Guys With Kids – Admittedly only given one chance, but the numbers are bad and there no showrunners NBC will want to keep happy (Fallon should already be covered with The Tonight Show).

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
–

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 28, 2013):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23*

canceled

0.50

Happy Endings (some F)

0.50

Red Widow

0.56

Last Resort*

canceled

0.57

Zero Hour*

canceled

0.58

Private Practice*

canceled

0.63

Malibu Country* (F)

0.65

666 Park Avenue*

canceled

0.68

Body Of Proof

0.72

Last Man Standing* (F)

0.74

The Neighbors*

0.87

Revenge

0.94

Nashville

0.94

Suburgatory

1.01

Castle

1.09

The Middle

1.13

How To Live With Your Parents

1.16

Once Upon A Time

1.23

Scandal

1.41

Grey’s Anatomy

1.52

Modern Family

2.07

–
In what is an upgrade for Body Of Proof and a downgrade for How To Live With Your Parents (For the Rest Of Your Life) the cancellation bear now predicts both as “toss ups” to be renewed or canceled.

Whatever mojo Body Of Proofhad last season that saved it when it averaged just 66% of ABC’s scripted show average ratings could again save it this season, particularly since it’s now averaging over 70% of this spring’s ABC scripted show ratings average (a level for which for most shows would mean cancellation).

Sandwiched by repeats, How To Live With Your Parents ratings dove last week to just a 1.5 rating. It’ll be surrounded by new episodes this Wednesday in what is likely a make or break outing. If it doesn’t rebound, expect a negative prediction on May 7.

Final up or down (no toss ups!) guesses next Tuesday, May 7!

Although it’s not that easy to see, the photo is of teddy bears tossed onto a hockey rink in some sort of promotional event.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the “old” Fall predictions will carry over.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Lots of drama renewals from NBC and a couple from CW on Friday. A few quick items and then a piece on the merits of schedule spackle from long-time reader and smart guy Tom Shaw who might be taking over Bubble Watch next season.

Beauty and the Beast renewed!

Though I put Beauty and the Beast back on the bubble last week, and might have upgraded it again this week had it not already been renewed, I did have it as a likely cancellation for a month. For the week or two of that period where The Carrie Diaries hadn’t been moved to predicted cancellation I’m fine with that choice. The other few weeks though, the many of you who were in the “they’ll cancel one of those shows, but not both!” camp had it right!

Hannibal

What’s ailing Hannibalgoes beyond the NFL Draft. I was going to wait until next Sunday, May 5 which will be the last Bubble Watch of the season (because before Sunday, May 12 rolls around we should know all the renewals and cancellations) to downgrade Hannibal, but why wait? If it jumps 30% to a 1.3 next week, I’ll move it back to the bubble.

Nikita

Some are making something out of CW announcing the renewals of Beauty and the Beast and Hart of Dixie but not Nikita. At least for now, I’m making nothing of it. Abysmal ratings are nothing new for Nikita, and if the CW has ridden out its lousy ratings this long to drag it along to the necessary episodes for stripped syndication I’ll be very surprised if it’s not given at least a partial order. A Nikitacancellation after three seasons would definitely be the biggest surprise of the season for me.

The Neighbors & How To Live with Your Parents

I’ve put How to Live with Your Parents back on the bubble and still like The Neighbors chances better. If I’m wrong about that, I’ll be surprised, but still not nearly as surprised as if the CW doesn’t renew Nikita!

The text below comes from long-time reader Tom Shaw who has thought a lot about renewals, cancellations and scheduling needs. Tom was the person who coined the phrase “schedule spackle” in the comments way back when, so it’s appropriate to introduce Tom with a piece on schedule spackle. Tom thinks about things much more from a scheduling perspective than I do. I haven’t spent any time thinking about what Fox will stick on Fridays next season. Tom has!

Spackle Detail: The Silver Lining for Body of Proof?

By Tom Shaw

As we head into the renewal announcements, the one category the internet as a whole tends to whiff on are the “spackle” candidates. A quick refresher:

Every Fall, networks try new shows. Some of those new shows will fail so badly they need to be yanked off the air.

Something needs to air in their place. Networks have learned the hard way that trying to promote and launch a new show over one to two weeks in that same slot rarely works.
The best option networks have is to fill in those holes with “spackle” – pre-existing shows with established audiences (even if those audiences are smaller than average) that networks can drop into those slots with little promotion. Procedurals and broader comedies work best.

Over the last few years, most networks have learned to have their cake and eat it too by scheduling their spackle options on Friday. Those premieres are usually delayed 2-4 weeks to give the networks time to evaluate the new shows. This allows the networks to have a replacement show ready if a new show fails, while also avoiding eating $20+ Million on a spackle order that sits on the shelf until Summer if the new shows succeed.

So what sort of spackle options does each network have?

ABC

Drama: Only Castleand… Body of Proof really fit the mold. While Castlehas sunk this year, there’s been no indication ABC will pull it off the Fall schedule, leaving Body Of Proof as ABC’s only option. I now expect a renewal for Body Of Proof.

Comedy: Suburgatory, The Neighbors, and How to Live… could all be fighting for spackle spots on Friday. Unless ABC hates their comedy pilots and expands to two hours on Friday, I think Malibu Country is dead and Last Man Standing depends on pilots.

CBS: Renewals all but finished.

Drama: The Mentalist and probably The Good Wifeare Friday bound, as already syndicated shows nearing the end of their runs. The Mentalistin particular is prime procedural spackle, and I am waiting to see Friday numbers before declaring next season its last.

Comedy: CBS has quite a few comedy pilots with prestige names to fill only one slot. A sign of CBS expanding comedy to two hours on Thursday, or will CBS hold Mike & Molly(hitting 88 episodes this year, owned by WB) for spackle in case new shows tank (or both)?

CW: Renewals are all but finished.

Drama: CW has now picked up their spackle options in Heart Of Dixie & Beauty And The Beast. I expect one to be initially scheduled on Friday in Spring.

FOX: Renewals are finished.

Comedy: I expect Raising Hope and probably Mindy Project to start the season out on Fridays @ 8, to cover any failed comedies on Tuesday.

Drama: Unless Fox somehow can move Gleeor Bonesto Friday — itself all but requiring Fox to stick with the semi-disastrous Four Comedy Tuesdays)– the only real options they have are to a) Schedule a new show for Friday and hope it both succeeds there and transfers, and/or b) Move the likely Friday comedy spackle block to cover a failed drama. Neither sounds wise in the short run, so I expect Fox to sit on any failed drama (a la Mob Doctor this season) until The Following and whichever drama gets the Super Bowl premiere can start.

NBC

Drama: Unless Law & Order: SVU starts on Friday (itself unlikely because of comedy spackle), the only spackle option is Grimm, which NBC has only used in emergencies. That said, I expect The Voice’shalo to prop up any struggling new dramas until NBC can launch replacements after the Olympics.

Comedy: The biggest mystery left this Spring. NBC has one comedy with ratings arguably worthy of continuing (Parks & Rec) and too much time to fill. I expect NBC to go with two hours on Thursday and one hour of Friday comedy spackle – and NBC gives Go On, New Normal, Whitney, and Communityspackle orders with so many unproven Thursday shows.

Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he’s spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
–

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 21, 2013):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23*

canceled

0.50

Happy Endings (some F)

0.53

Last Resort*

canceled

0.57

Zero Hour*

canceled

0.58

Red Widow

0.60

Private Practice*

canceled

0.63

Malibu Country* (F)

0.65

666 Park Avenue*

canceled

0.68

Body Of Proof

0.70

Last Man Standing* (F)

0.74

The Neighbors*

0.87

Nashville

0.94

Revenge

0.94

Suburgatory

1.00

Castle

1.07

The Middle

1.12

Once Upon A Time

1.24

How To Live With Your Parents

1.27

Scandal

1.39

Grey’s Anatomy

1.52

Modern Family

2.06

–Body Of Proof was probably the cancellation bear’s biggest miss last season. He had it “certain to be canceled” and it was renewed. Its ratings this season are even more woeful (as well as relative to other ABC shows), but if it was the California production tax credit that saved it last season, it might do so again. This season, having been burned once by the show, the bear’s not making it “certain to be canceled”. Still, he’ll make a final up or down guess on it, and other uncertain shows, on May 7.

Rookie sitcom How To Live With Your Parents (For the Rest Of Your Life) ratings took a dive last week. The bear currently has it as “likely to be renewed”, but that might change after this week’s results. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the “old” Fall predictions will carry over.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

GleeRenewed: shame on you if that surprises you

I’m not a Glee viewer so I have no skin in the game. If you don’t like it and you want it to be canceled because you don’t like it, that’s fine. But if you expect it to be canceled because you don’t like it, that’s kinda nuts. Who cares if Glee’s ratings are a shadow of their former self? Glee still has above average ratings for Fox and shows with above average ratings almost always get renewed.

“Why renew it for two seasons? It’s ratings are above average now, but they will be below average the season after next!” That it made financial sense to Fox to renew it for two seasons is a good enough generalization for me. Beyond that, while we don’t fiddle with adults 18-34 ratings for purposes of prognosticating (it doesn’t change the predictions, so why complicate things?) it’s an important subset of adults 18-49. Glee’s 18-49 ratings are above average and its adults 18-34 (and women 18-34) ratings even more so.

Translation: don’t be too surprised if Gleestill has a higher 30 second spot cost than Person of Interest when Ad Age’s annual estimates come out next fall.

The Neighbors Still Likely to Be Renewed

Bill downgraded The Neighbors in last Tuesday’s Renew/Cancel Indexdue to the relative comparison between post-March 1 ratings for The Neighbors and How to Live with Your Parents.

No ding on How to Live with Your Parents performance (and I’ve upgraded it) I just don’t think it’s a case where using those two shows’ absolute ratings as a yardstick against each other is the way to go. Considering everything –even post-March 1 performance, where among other factors, three out of four of The Neighbors episodes aired after repeats of The Middle and four out of four did not air after Modern Family— I still have the shows even.

The Neighbors has something else going for it – ABC has an ownership stake. How to Live with Your Parents is a Fox production.

Body of Proof Upgraded to the Bubble

Assuming Body of Proof has settled in at ratings that won’t deteriorate further, it will end the season with a little bit better index than it had last year. Given last year’s renewal, that makes it at least a bubble show. I won’t be surprised if it’s canceled, but after last year how could I be surprised if it’s renewed?

Hannibal Still on the Bubble

Hannibal got off to a promising start (at least on NBC) and actually went higher in its 2nd episode. But its 3rd episode fell 18% to a 1.4 adults 18-49 rating. Even if it merely stabilizes from here, I still think it probably scrapes out a renewal. Another 18% drop though and it’s in Deception territory with a possible “yeah, but NOTHING works for NBC Thursday’s at 10pm!” played on fan excuse bingo cards, and hey, it can actually fall another 18% and still be ahead of last year’s Awake!

Yep, I upgraded Beauty and the Beast back to the Bubble

I tried to talk myself into it with conventional wisdom last week but didn’t quite get there.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
–

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 14, 2013):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23*

canceled

0.50

Happy Endings (some F)

0.53

Last Resort*

canceled

0.57

Zero Hour*

canceled

0.58

Red Widow

0.60

Private Practice*

canceled

0.63

Malibu Country* (F)

0.65

666 Park Avenue*

canceled

0.68

Body Of Proof

0.70

Last Man Standing* (F)

0.74

The Neighbors*

0.87

Nashville

0.93

Revenge

0.94

Suburgatory

1.03

Castle

1.07

The Middle

1.11

Once Upon A Time

1.25

Scandal

1.39

How To Live With Your Parents

1.39

Grey’s Anatomy

1.51

Modern Family

2.05

–Don’t Trust The B—-has already been devoured by the cancellation bear. Happy Endings may live on with a cable net, but it’s certain to be canceled by ABC. What about the next three higher rated ABC sitcoms?

Malibu Country averaged a 1.3 rating for new episodes since March 1.

Last Man Standing averaged a 1.5 rating since March 1.

The Neighborsaveraged a 1.5 rating since March 1.

Of those three, the bear is most confident in the renewal of Last Man Standing. It’s a second year show, airing on Friday which carries some level of low ratings forgiveness, and has matched The Neighbors ratings since March 1.

Based on the early relative success of How To Live With Your Parents, and The Neighbors relatively weak ratings since March 1, the bear is now moving The Neighborsback to a “toss up” for cancellation or renewal.

The bear still likes The Neighbors chances better than those of Malibu Country though, and would give it the least chance for renewal out of the three.

Our final up or down guesses for all shows still with uncertain fates will come on May 7.

Rookie sitcom How To Live With Your Parents (For the Rest Of Your Life) is also in the mix for renewal, but its current ratings are high enough to put it well out of the range of those other three.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the “old” Fall predictions will carry over.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

]]>http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/abc-the-neighbors-now-a-toss-up-to-be-canceled-or-renewed/feed/0stevebaronthree bearsBubble Watch: ‘Beauty and the Beast:’ Will It Be Canceled or Will It Be Renewed?http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-beauty-and-the-beast-will-it-be-canceled-or-will-it-be-renewed/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-beauty-and-the-beast-will-it-be-canceled-or-will-it-be-renewed/#respondSun, 14 Apr 2013 16:21:16 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=177705

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Other than Cultgetting canceled (who didn’t see that coming?) no changes to the table below this week.

Will Convention Save Beauty and the Beast?

When it comes to Beauty and the Beast, Bill thinks it’s likely to be renewed and I think it’s likely to be canceled. For us, that’s a wide discrepancy this late in the season. Even last year when we disagreed on the fates of The Secret Circle and Hart of Dixie in our final guesses, we both had both shows on the bubble/toss-ups for renewal heading into those guesses.

Bill outlines three reasons for the renewal prediction for Beauty and the Beast, but it’s only one of them –past scheduling history– that’s the crux of the disagreement. Even within that reasoning, there’s only one part of it where we disagree:

1. CW can’t cancel both The Carrie Diariesand Beauty and the Beast without breaking (at least a little) from past scheduling history
2. It’s more likely they will renew one of them than break with past history
3. If one has to be renewed, it’s Beauty and the Beast.

It’s a reasonable position, that may be the correct one. The first item above is a fact and if I agreed with the second item above (I don’t), I would certainly agree with the third.

I assume the CW will renew five of its scripted shows and Bill assumes 6. Whether it’s five or six the list of things that the CW absolutely can’t do in its fall schedule announcement is short: I don’t think it can announce an hour (or hours) of scheduled repeats.*

Would an hour or two of unscripted on CW’s fall schedule surprise me? Nope. Five hours of veterans with three hours of new scripted and two hours of unscripted has been done before (as recently as fall 2011**).

Would four new scripted shows launched in the fall surprise me? Yes, but only a little. We’re talking 4 vs. the normal 3. It’s a difference, but it’s not a big difference particularly if CW stays with its staggered schedule approach where most season premieres don’t happen in the same week anyway. Plus this year the CW loses two shows (90210 and Gossip Girl) that had four or more seasons. That’s the first time that’s happened since I’ve been following things closely From the 2008-2009 season through the 2011-12 season CW either lost no shows that were at least four years old or lost only one.

*It’s fine if the CW winds up with an hour or two of scheduled repeats after the season starts, that almost always happens. It’s only announcing them in advance that never happens.

**Fall of 2011 launched with only five veterans, but a sixth was renewed (One Tree Hill) and held for mid-season. Fall had two hours of unscripted on the schedule announcement America’s Next Top Model and (the quickly canceled and replaced with schedule repeats) H8R.

Prognosis Negative: Presumption of future ratings

If renewed, Beauty and the Beast will no longer air after The Vampire Diaries. From there it’s reasonable to assume the ratings will go down and quite likely to The Carrie Diaries levels or worse. Whether you’re CW, CBS or an ad buyer, that’s the reasonable assumption. I assume CW, CBS and the ad buyers will all make exactly that assumption.

So why do that? There are things to consider from economics to appearances of stability. But in thinking those through, I still don’t see it getting renewed unless the ratings start going up when it returns this Thursday.

It’s not quite the same as last year’s situation with The Secret Circle and Hart of Dixie where Hart of Dixie could make a much better either/or case. I understand looking at it and thinking “it’s the same either/or choice as last year, only this year the Thursday show will win out!”

Last year it was reasonable for CW to assume Hart of Dixie’s future ratings would be stable if renewed and and that The Secret Circle’s would go down. The landscape is nearly identical between The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast with the big exception that The Carrie Diaries isn’t a reasonable option with its ratings as low as they are. But because Beauty and the Beastwill be moved if renewed it’s probably going to wind up with ratings that are at the level of The Carrie Diariesanyway.

If you’re in the “but they have to pick one of them!” camp, Beauty and the Beast is likely to be renewed. I’m not in that camp this year. Is the CW? We only have to wait about a month to find out.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 7, 2013):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23*

canceled

0.50

Happy Endings (some F)

0.56

Last Resort*

canceled

0.57

Zero Hour*

canceled

0.58

Red Widow

0.60

Private Practice*

canceled

0.63

Malibu Country* (F)

0.65

666 Park Avenue*

canceled

0.68

Body Of Proof

0.69

Last Man Standing* (F)

0.74

The Neighbors*

0.87

Nashville

0.93

Revenge

0.94

Suburgatory

1.03

Castle

1.07

The Middle

1.12

Once Upon A Time

1.25

Scandal

1.38

How To Live With Your Parents

1.49

Grey’s Anatomy

1.51

Modern Family

2.06

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Rookie sitcom How To Live With Your Parents (For the Rest Of Your Life) ratings started well last week. Well enough for the cancellation bear to start its prediction as “likely to be renewed”. Early predictions are subject to rapid change, stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the “old” Fall predictions will carry over.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.