Can Bitcoin Really Succeed Long Term?

from the questions-to-ponder dept

For quite some time, I've been interested in the general concept of currencies and how money works in general. I remember an early episode of NPR's Planet Money podcast, in which they tried to answer the simple question:
what is money? They quickly discovered it's not an easy question to answer (and, in fact, those working on the podcast have revisited the question many times in many interesting ways -- including a fascinating episode a few months back looking at the Island of Stone Money. That episode discussed the island of Yap in the South Pacific, that for many years used massive limestone discs as money. And, by massive, I mean sometimes weighing upwards of a ton. In other words, it didn't have one of the key features that many normally associate with "money," which is that it's a "currency of exchange." In theory, you can't easily "exchange" a giant rock.

But the clever islanders on Yap came up with a solution. It was made clear who actually owned which stones, and then you could effectively transfer "title" to the stones, even if you didn't move the stones themselves. There was even the story of boat that was bringing in a new giant limestone disc (the limestone all came from another island), and due to a storm, the boat capsized and the stone sunk to the bottom of the ocean. However, it still counted as money, just so long as everyone knew whose it was. Now, when you hear that at first, it sounds ridiculous, but as the Planet Money folks pointed out, is it really all that different than your bank account? The only reason you have "money" in your bank account is because the bank marks it in its database. The bank isn't literally holding a stack of cash for you. In fact, as soon as you give it your money, it's probably handing it out to someone else.

All that brings me around to the question of Bitcoin. In various techie circles, there's been a fair amount of buzz about Bitcoin lately. Especially following efforts by other payment companies like Paypal and Mastercard to cut off contributions to Wikileaks, there's been a lot more interest in figuring out what infrastructure pieces in today's world should be more decentralized, and an obvious target is "money."

And that's where many point to Bitcoin. Jerry Brito has a nice writeup on Bitcoin about how it's a decentralized digital currency that is growing in popularity, and, in theory can resist attacks and problems of previous attempts at various digital currencies, while providing significant anonymity. Tim Lee quickly responded with skepticism about whether or not Bitcoin can really work, looking both at the demand side of the question and the supply side. I'm not sure Lee's specific arguments are entirely accurate, but I think his general arguments may be.

This doesn't mean Bitcoin (or something like it) can't be successful. It's just that it has an uphill battle. I think it's already useful in certain areas, but that's a big step away from getting to where it really needs to be to succeed in the long run -- and those steps can be much bigger than most people imagine. However, I could certainly envision scenarios that lead to rapid Bitcoin (or similar offering) adoption. I just wonder how sustainable it would really be vs. how much would just be a fad. In the end, I have to admit that I'm torn on this one. While I appreciate the concept of Bitcoin, and think that it might be nice if something like it was really popular, I do wonder if it really has the legs to reach such a level of success. One thing I do know for sure, however: I'd certainly like to hear the folks at Planet Money examine Bitcoin and how it plays into their sporadic explorations of money itself.

Reader Comments

Currency seems to be a value placed on trust. And over the millennia that concept has been placed on tangible and intangible goods from gold coin to a person's word of honor. The only reason any sort of currency works is because of the faith placed in its value.

If enough people believe that Bitcoin has any worth, then it will grow in value. Just like how people had taken a huge leap of faith to accept PayPal in it's early years.

currency

Fans of Neal Stephenson's novels are likely to be unusually well-informed about this topic. The books of The Baroque Cycle examine the rising influence of currency markets, trade and capitalism in Enlightenment-era Europe, and feature long (LONG) discourses on the nature of money and how it impacts societies which use it. If you are able to make it through the sometimes-super-brainy books, you will end up with a thorough understanding of economics in general and currency in particular (as well as a pretty solid understanding of European politics around the time of the Hundred Years' War and the Golden Revolution).

Likewise, his novel Cryptonomicon (which, full disclosure, I REALLY love) delves deeply into the issues of currency in the digital age. Half of the book follows a group of tech entrepeneurs who are trying to establish a highly secure digital currency which could be a viable online alternative to nation-backed currencies (i.e. the dollar, yuan, yen, etc.) Again, Stephenson presents the economic, scientific and philosophical issues as plot points in the book itself.

His earlier works Snow Crash and The Diamond Age take place in a future where a digital currency paired with extremely strong cryptographic security have actually pushed the world into a post-nation political reality. The advent of untraceable online transactions made it so no government could accurately track its citizens' actual income or net worth, leading to a total inability to collect income taxes and in turn to a severe governmental collapse. It's unlikely, but a fascinating concept to explore.

If you are interested in Stephenson's work but don't want to invest the time in an 800+ page tome, I highly recommend The Great Simoleon Caper, available for free on TIME Magazine's website. It appears to take place in the universe that is the setting for Snow Crash and The Diamond Age (which may or may not be the same setting as his other works, the links between his books are tenuous at best and not necessary for enjoying any of the stories).

Re: currency

I have been watching BitCoin for 6-9 months due to its disruptive potential. Having read Stephenson's novels I began wondering if BitCoin actually could affect the world governments revenue collection efforts.

Some of the things this seems to put an end to are, currency trading, inflation, the ability of governments to tax you, and all sorts of speculative financial instuments. From what I understand someone is attempting to put together a stock market based on this "e-Currency". It is going to be ripe for manipulation and hence unworkable unless the anonymity is removed.

I really do hope that this does succeed. It has some serious implications that most people will not see or understand until it is to late.

Re: Re: currency

Some of the things this seems to put an end to are, currency trading, inflation, the ability of governments to tax you, and all sorts of speculative financial instuments.

Gonna disagree with these.

currency trading - I'm guessing you mean currency exchange. Instead of exchanging US Dollars for Japanese Yen, there's nothing stopping someone from trading BitCoin money for US Dollars. The only way it would happen is if everyone is using BitCoin and only BitCoin - no chance at all of that happening. One day you may be exchanging your BitCoin for PayPalBucks or GoogleDollars. Once an e-currency really succeeds, there will be plenty of competitors.

inflation - BitCoin doesn't stop inflation. Inflation just means that your money doesn't buy the same amount as it used to (simplified, I'm only an amateur economist). Inflation is a supply/demand issue - if there's more money in an economy than their use to be and the demand for a good remains the same, the price of that good will rise (inflate).

the ability of governments to tax you - Well, not really. With a truly anonymous currency, the government has no way to tax you, right? Cash is anonymous, and the government doesn't have many issues charging taxes on most cash purchases. When I pay cash for a burger, there's tax included. The business is charging me that because the government says they have to in order to operate. Government will find a way to tax you even if they can't see your transactions.

all sorts of speculative financial instuments - Nope. People invest in these in order to make money. It is based on trust - you give your money to a person or company with the expectation (or hope) that they will do something with it and give you back more than you gave them.

From what I understand someone is attempting to put together a stock market based on this "e-Currency". It is going to be ripe for manipulation and hence unworkable unless the anonymity is removed.

Both the currency and a stock market based in it will succeed or fail based on the trust people put into either. If there is manipulation, no sane investor will trust their money to it (unless they're the one doing the manipulating).

I really do hope that this does succeed. It has some serious implications that most people will not see or understand until it is to late.

I absolutely agree. I hope it succeeds. It is disruptive, and current banks and government will have to figure out a way to deal with it. I think it will change many things for the better. But governments will find a way to tax you even if you're using this - heck, if you've read Cryptonomicon, there's a whole section discussing just this very thing.

Re: Re: Re: currency

"inflation - BitCoin doesn't stop inflation. Inflation just means that your money doesn't buy the same amount as it used to (simplified, I'm only an amateur economist). Inflation is a supply/demand issue - if there's more money in an economy than their use to be and the demand for a good remains the same, the price of that good will rise (inflate)."

Actually you would have the opposite effect. Since national banks can pump money into the economy on a whim and BitCoins inflation is all predefined. You would more than likely have deflation. More goods for the same amount of BitCoins. If it really took of this effect would be amplified as more money poured into BitCoin. And like all good feedback loops it could cause a financial collapse that would be outside any central banks control.

"Both the currency and a stock market based in it will succeed or fail based on the trust people put into either."

Agreed. I was only pointing out in a truely unregulated and anonymous stock market the manipulation of the market is easy as there is no accountability.

"One day you may be exchanging your BitCoin for PayPalBucks or GoogleDollars. Once an e-currency really succeeds, there will be plenty of competitors."

I actually prefer the names DigitalDimes, BitCoins, BarterBullion, and e-Dollars yours were rather lame ;)

One huge thing the creators of this have not taken into account. If this does take off they are going to need a method to "Split" BitCoins into multiple coins and devalue them based on the Split. I mean you do not want to be walking around with a dozen BitCoins each worth as much as a share of Berkshire Hathaway.

Re: Re: Re: Re: currency

"Actually you would have the opposite effect. Since national banks can pump money into the economy on a whim and BitCoins inflation is all predefined. You would more than likely have deflation. More goods for the same amount of BitCoins. If it really took of this effect would be amplified as more money poured into BitCoin. And like all good feedback loops it could cause a financial collapse that would be outside any central banks control."

Financial collapse due to deflation? Deflation is purely a monetary phenomena and it would be irrelevant to the real economy. Especially given the architecture of BitCoins where money production really is a helicopter drop rather than the current system where the money flows in rather odd ways to different parts of the system.

"One huge thing the creators of this have not taken into account. If this does take off they are going to need a method to "Split" BitCoins into multiple coins and devalue them based on the Split. I mean you do not want to be walking around with a dozen BitCoins each worth as much as a share of Berkshire Hathaway"

That is unnecessary actually. While it is common for the store of value and the medium of exchange to be one and the same, that is unnecessary. If BitCoins start having a very high value we will deposit them in banks which will issue notes that are redeemable for fractions of BitCoins. The bank can relatively easily split its notes without changing your holdings.

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: currency

If BitCoins start having a very high value we will deposit them in banks which will issue notes that are redeemable for fractions of BitCoins. The bank can relatively easily split its notes without changing your holdings.

Bitcoin's protocol is designed to allow billionths of a Bitcoin to be exchanged (though the software currently kicks out transactions smaller than that, but all it requires is enough nodes in the network to upgrade to change/remove that restriction). If deflation strikes to the extent that say, US$1000 = BTC1, then the you'll see milliBTC be used... instead of saying BTC0.0001, it will just be mBTC0.01.

One thing that keeps me from using Bitcoin is that there doesn't seem to be a system for doing "charge-backs" or plain old refunds. That's one of the things currency is known for, the ability to return it to the original owner.

Re:

Quote: One thing that keeps me from using Bitcoin is that there doesn't seem to be a system for doing "charge-backs" or plain old refunds. That's one of the things currency is known for, the ability to return it to the original owner.

Charge-Backs, refunds, etc aren't in the realm of the currency itself, those occur at the service/retailor level. If I give Sears 50$ for a weed wacker, and they fail to deliver Sears gives me 50$ back. It won't be the same 50$ I gave them in most cases, but the value remains the same.

In the event of a scam for example, if you don't trust who you are giving your money to, you shouldn't give your money to that indavidual directly as you have no way of knowing you'll get what they are offering. You can, however; use a mutually trusted third party to handle the exchange. You give the third party your money who holds it until you receive the requested item/service, then hands it off to the seller. If they fail to deliver the third party gives you back the money you handled them and likely notes the seller didn't keep their end of the bargain as a note of cuation in the future. Most likely this third party will charge you a small fee for the security, but that's pretty much how any bank or exchange service works.

Funny You Should Mention It

I just started a GPU Mining App this week and lucked out with a block completion in the first 24 hours of operation. Since each bitcoin is worth more than a dollar at the moment, 50 btc is a nice chunk of change.

I think governments will either crush it or they will emplace their own variant that gives them more control of it.

Maybe an intergovernment bitcoin system that isn't used by individuals but acts as a way for governments to keep track of how much each government owes another government? Or maybe an intercorporate bitcoin? But governments will certainly try to keep a non-government regulated iteration out of the hands of normal citizens, especially if they can't tax it.

Nowhere in the FAQ is listed what preventions bitcoin has in case of mass hack/breach of the system. Open source and eyeballs doesn't guarantee ultimate security, it just means lots of eyeballs and a greater potential to catch bugs/exploits.

Rather scary that this is a consideration for a money system. Even in your example above, the rocks are tangible items that the villagers can physically see/hold, even if they can't move them. There has to be something behind the currency for the trust to exist. I'm not saying the current system works particularly well, but at least I have receipts and actual cash/gold/silver that in theory one or more of the above will still hold value given a data breach or world disaster.

Re:

Re:

"... in case of mass hack/breach of the system. Open source and eyeballs doesn't guarantee ultimate security ...

Rather scary that this is a consideration for a money system.... There has to be something behind the currency for the trust to exist ..."

Two things.

First the dollar is guaranteed by the word of the US government, not gold.

Second What you now have are banks doing the same thing as this system. Banks maintain a list of who has how much. Two or three small EMP's could literally wipe out about 2-6 trillion dollar in assets for people and corporations as the record keepers loose their records. Either way its not totally secure.

Re:

Nowhere in the FAQ is listed what preventions bitcoin has in case of mass hack/breach of the system. Open source and eyeballs doesn't guarantee ultimate security, it just means lots of eyeballs and a greater potential to catch bugs/exploits.

A hack or breach of what, exactly?

There are no servers to break into. Everyone using BitCoin has the entire transaction database already. Anyone can create multiple addresses without contacting any other system. Anyone can create single use addresses for every transaction.

Its all based on public/private keys. If something comes around that can trivially break that, there's going to be much more interesting things to worry about.

but at least I have receipts and actual cash/gold/silver that in theory one or more of the above will still hold value given a data breach or world disaster.

Why does cash have value? Only because the government that issued it says it does, and people trust that government's word (or at least think everyone else does). Once that trust is broken... I've been meaning to get a hold of some of those trillion dollar Zimbabwe bills but I keep forgetting to set aside the US$1.00 I'd need to buy a couple (includes shipping!).

Why do silver and gold have value? You really need to listen to those PlanetMoney podcasts. The short answer is because people think they have value. The concept of abstract money is effectively circular logic, but it works.

Probably isn't the right word here.

"The bank isn't literally holding a stack of cash for you. In fact, as soon as you give it your money, it's probably handing it out to someone else."

They most certainly do not loan out depositor money to borrowers. They loan out money that they create by writing it into their books. If they didn't make money out of nothing, the interest would funnel all of the money to them and leave everyone else without a single penny because interest causes the banks to take in more money than they put out. Instead, they loan out money on Fractional Reserve so the money supply is as much as people are willing to borrow. I thought you would know this being an economist (No offense, I'm just surprised.)? They would never loan out money sitting in depositor accounts because that gives them the fractional leverage to loan out as much a nine times (or whatever the ratio is) what they have in "existing" money.

I think bitcoin has some serious potential if merchants are willing to use it. I'd also like to see some sort of banking system in the US similar to the JAK bank in Sweden. No interest loans and 0% inflation is a pretty nice deal.

Writer knows nothing about our monetary system.

The author said:
"In fact, as soon as you give it your money, it's probably handing it out to someone else. "

That is a partial truth sort of like mixing 10% ice cream into poop and calling it ice cream.

If you agree that if someone mixes poop with ice cream is still poop then consider this...

The truth is banks can and do create money out of nothing to loan people, sure they can use the money you deposit but why should they?

I'm into studying money and I understand it as a means of exchange and store of value. The dollar is good for the former but bad for the latter since it's constantly going down in value.

Thus Gold and silver is the best kind of money for both store of wealth and exchange of value for value. The dollar is a fraud that is created for free by a central authority and given to the bankers YOU HAVE TO BORROW IT MAKING YOU A SLAVE since the banker gets it free and you need to work for it.

Central banking is the largest most successful CON or confidence game done on men in the history of man kind.

Re: Writer knows nothing about our monetary system.

Changing to a hard currency is not going to solve anything. The declining value of any and all currency is the fault of Fractional Reserve. The banks loan out several times as much money as they have in deposits and when that "money" reaches the next bank, it's considered money that counts toward their reserve. That's what is inflating our currency. The banks keep making more of it despite the finite amount of wealth (property and resources). More money comes into existence and its value is divided amongst all material wealth. So $1000 worth of wheat will cost $10000 if the money supply is increased tenfold.

What makes you a slave is that you have to pay interest (Compounded or simple, it doesn't matter) back to the bank for the money you borrowed. They couldn't support an interest system at all if they didn't pull the money out of thin air in the first place. The dollar is as good of a currency as any other. It's just a thing that represents value. Fiat currency such as the dollar can do the job just fine so long as it's quantity is regulated properly

Interest is not a good thing. Its very nature demands perpetual growth that the finite environment we live in cannot sustain. An interest-free monetary system is what is really needed to create a sustainable economy. I know what most people will say: "How will the banks make any money?" The answer is simple, eliminate private banks, they don't deserve our money. They aren't creating anything, they're just leeching on the enterprise and labor of others. They're making money from the sweat and tears of billions of people and they don't create anything for it.

Bitcoins value fluctuate waaaay too much for a currency. Right now value is skyrocketing so there isnt much complaint but what happens when the value crashes? Are people even using bitcoin to transact commerce? It seems more like a speculative gold rush where everyone is buying video cards to mine and horde bitcoins. Remember we went off the gold standard for a reason and bitcoins seem to have the same inability to expand or contract as economic needs dictate.

BitCoin Banking

I hope BitCoin or some evolution based on the basic technology succeeds. I believe some forms of BitCoin banking will be necessary to enable that success. Some might be concerned that the whole point of the system was to make money distributed. Right now the wallet performs certain functions of a banking system. But not the most important function.

As correctly pointed out above, banks create money (out of nothing, or thin air as often pointed out). That seems at odds with BitCoin where you need a GPU, electricity and some cooling to create BitCoins. But a BitCoin Bank could create new BitCoins by lending. In reality Banks do not create money out of completely nothing, they back it by claims on the assets of the borrower who demanded its creation in the first place. This capability would also allow the BTC supply to expand to meet demand, one of the reasons why the exchange prices are so unstable at the moment. It may solve a number of problems in the system.

The genius of BitCoin was solving the problems of conterfeiting, double spending and online exchange using distributed P2P computing. There is nothing to say those mechanisms could not be used by a BTC banking system.

Great concept...but no way of regulating...yet

Although I love the concept, it just seems like this can all to easily be manipulated being that it is in fact "digital currency" which is not tied to anything physical and could be changed behind closed doors.

There is no form of validated regulation and it just screams "the ultimate" fiat currency. The problem with digital is that you just have to keep adding zeros to the end. People are already searching for ways to mine and hoard this concept with the push of a button.

Just the fact that it's value has fluctuated so easily makes it dangerous and susceptible to a speculated bubble.

Not a real currency, yet

Until you can actually both borrow and lend money it is not a real currency. Currently there are no "bitcoin" banks to do loans, no credit agencies to keep track of your bitcoin credit rating, etc. About the only way you could do a business in strictly bitcoins would be sell your stocks or bonds for bitcoins. I'm sure someone will do that soon. At that point you have something which value is based on bitcoins and you have a real currency.

All new Exchange website - much better than MtGox

Hello to all of you BitCoin Believers out there :) There is a new bitcoin exchange website - https://bitcoin7.com/ ! I just made my first deal there and the whole thing is far superior than MtGox! Also, the taxes are more than two times lower, and at the moment they are even paying you to trade instead of taking their commission!

The site is really nicely designed, it's easy to use and it is also a really nice change from the slow and ugly MtGox!

Bitcoin, as a cryptocurrency, has naver had it so good when it comes to popularity. It becomes widely accepted throughout the world. However it gathered global attention, especially since the beginning of 2011, still there is much to be done to help this wonderful cryptocurrency to be wiedespread. Internet portals and services, such as www.bitcoin.travel and www.bitcoin.org are created to popularize this decentralized currency. There are more and more businesses, who are able to see the potential of bitcoin, therefore it gathers more and more acceptance with every day. Bitcoin.travel is a site with directory of hotels, restaurants, nightclubs, stores, accepting bitcoin around the world.

2 years later and bitcoin is still going strong. With the number of new VCs, entrepreneurs and small businesses joining the bitcoin community within the last several months, the idea of bitcoin becoming a proper alternative currency is getting closer.

This article is a dull..

Ahm, so basically I just wanted a few minutes reading what everybody knows and an undecided position from somebody who didnt really put any argument into his article but a link to somebody who did take the time and effort to write about it.. i dont get this.. :P

bitcoin

I noticed you have a link to bitcointalk.org on your site here. You may not be aware of it, but there has been a huge amount of censorship taking place on Bitcoin.org and other Bitcoin discussion venues to suppress discussion of scaling bitcoin.

To help support free speech in the Bitcoin ecosystem we ask that you either change bitcointalk.org to forum.Bitcoin.com, or add forum.Bitcoin.com in addition to the existing link.