So, you are a minnow?

Today, @empress-eremmy posted about crossing the 500 SP threshold into Minnow-hood. Congrats. What I liked was the title, They say minnow, I say whale. I thought I would write a little post and some thoughts about a potential future here.

I had to cheat a little for that screenshot and power her up myself as she hadn't powered up yet. Sorry ;)

But, I thought tonight I would quickly run through some numbers:

35

That is the number of whales with their own 500K SP, not delegated. Blame the whales means blaming 35 accounts.

277

This is the number of Orcas, those that have over 50K+ SP. There are quite a few accounts in here that are alts of whales though if you cared to do a little digging. Some of them are autovoters and do a very good job of it.

1729

These are the Dolphin accounts with 5000+

8458

These are the accounts that have over 500 SP. The minnows and up.

10499

Accounts out of ~1.2 Million with more than 500 SP. Many of these are alts, many are bots, many don't post, many don't vote, many are effectively dead but, they have 500+ SP. These are the one percenters. Congrats @empress-eremmy, you are now one of the privileged.

If we took 2500 SP as the average size of a minnow (it is lower than this in reality), combined they have 21,370,000 Steem between them and if they all voted together would have a ~$1000 dollar vote, $10,000 a day. Not bad if they all voted. What you will find though is many of the active ones have a lot less active VP (voting Steem power) as they delegate here and there. No issues there, your stake is yours.

As you can see, since March, the number of 'posts per day' have almost halved but, there are still ~30K posts per day. Let's half that to take out the automated and spam posts and there are Still 15,000 posts. That means that for all of them to be seen by an account over 500 SP, every account must read 1.5 posts every day. If you want to have a look at that stats page, have a look around the 489 SP range pages and you will see why some don't read or vote. There are many of those type of accounts around.

But, these aren't the numbers I want to talk about really, they are just some to think on, food for thought so to speak. What I wanted to draw some attention to is the title of @empress-eremmy's article today. They say minnow, I say whale. I am pretty sure that when I crossed the 10k SP mark, I became a dolphin, now it is 5000 SP. At what point is a new Orca?

For a lot of Steem's life, the price has been around 1 dollar making the lowest Orca worth about 50,000 dollars. However, when prices were at the all-time high of $7+, my account was worth over 100,000 dollars. Yes, it is 20 now and I have 25% more Steem but... such is life. Was I an Orca? No.

But just think. For someone to become a minnow today from zero, it will cost them, ~375 dollars US. At the all time high of 7, it would be 3500 dollars US. That means that if 1000 accounts wanted to buy and power up to 500 SP from zero today, it will be 500,000 Steem and cost 375,000 dollars. At the high, it would cost those 1000 accounts 3.5 Million.

If this place does ever happen to mainstream, and a million accounts buy 10 Steem at 10 dollars, that is 100 million worth of Steem. Sure, we are potentially a long way away from having that happen and, we are potentially never going to get there but do you get why some people see the value in buying a little Steem at 75 cents? Of course, as people buy in, the price will raise accordingly and many will sell also.

What some newer people don't seem to understand though is that the Steem paid out each day is dependent on the price of Steem. The higher the price, the harder to earn Steem even though values of payouts might rise. What this means is that with more people in and higher priced Steem, the Steem distribution will be wider but, it will also be lower to individual accounts. If Steem price is 10 for example, it means that a 10 dollar payout will get 0.5 Steem and / 5 SBD or 1 Steem at 100% power up.

What that means is at 100% powering up, a new account would need 500 posts averaging 10 dollar payouts to earn enough to become a minnow with 500 SP. Right now, 500 posts averaging 10 dollars would get 7500 SP and create a dolphin.

If mainstreaming happens, the minnows today are going to be seasoned veterans and not just be in the 1% but be in the 0.1%. They will effectively be classed as dolphins, the dolphins become orcas, the orcas whales and the whales...uh... Gods?

I know there are a lot of ifs, ands or buts in this but, if someone really has a long-term view of being here they have to consider what that actually means and how they approach it. Each day, there is an amount of Steem in the pool, the price is low and, there are 50% less posts to compete with each day. Factor in that many of the bot posters are likely still posting regardless of price and the real competition for the pool has never looked better. Are you posting? Engaging? Or, are you waiting for prices to go up?

I don't mind if you are waiting...

It is going to be very interesting to see how the dynamic of this place changes when 100s of thousands more active people come on board and spread across the Dapps. Should I say if? Nah, go long....

The people with a few hundred SP now are all going to be well and truly in the 1% of value holders here (currently there are only 4779 accounts between 250 and 500 SP) and have a great deal of power as both individuals and communities who may work together. What I really look forward to is seeing how a few thousand minnows are going to handle being treated like dolphins and orcas. Will they remember their roots and be Jenny from the Block or... Kanye West?

Upvote me deer?

I know, I know. What nonsense post but, for those who do think there is something here like I do, it is sometimes good to consider a few of the numbers involved. We often spend so much time worrying about what others are doing, earning or what not that we forget that if things do happen to work here, pretty much everyone actively involved today is going to be in a much better economic position than today. It does suck to see the abusers and it is going to suck even more to see them benefit heavily because of their abuse but, we do all have a chance to build something worthwhile here and, we do all have a chance to benefit from it.

It isn't guaranteed, it is definitely going to take more work and, it is definitely not going to be easy emotionally as there are going to be many, many ups and downs but... it is possible.

Now, having said all of that. Even if it doesn't happen, even if mainstreaming never takes place, there is still value potential here in many other facets of the Steem blockchain. You might think you are earning some nonsense stake on a valueless pool today but, it might not be the case tomorrow. Even if it is, isn't this a damn fun game to play?

The other thing that people rarely factor in here is that blockchain and cryptocurrencies are very, very unlikely to disappear so those who do the learning now in how they all work are going to be well ahead of the curve and have potential to create entirely new careers in multiple areas.

There are more potential ways to earn here in the future than posting alone and, no one said that the revenue streams we may have access to are confined to Steem alone. Blockchain technology is going to run through just about every business sector in some way, ready?

A lot in there, and being 9 hours behind all the other comments, the thing that I liked and found the most interesting:

isn't this a damn fun game to play?

That it is. I think more people need to be having fun with it, to many doom and gloom post, to much of when is it going to turn around. screw it, it might never turn around, does that mean I am going to stop posting, or a lot of other people are going to stop, Well I wont, some might, but I plan on staying around and continuing to have fun and to share things with people.

I think I have been getting a little bit more SP during the price turn down, and I have been trying to post a lot more, well a lot more for me that is. In that vein, for people that are having a hard time of thinking of the Fun aspect try out a new tag, do like me make a tag up, I was really surprised today that there was nothing posted or anyone using #wetwednesday as a tag, I mean get real people, do the NSFW crowd not have any brains and can't think beyond the bod? I did not make it or use it as an NSFW tag, just as a fun tag, just an example of not enough fun on steemit, #flashbackfriday(s) another tag that was not being used.

Who knows, maybe I will think of a tag for Thursday's or someone else. People need to learn to spend a vote, and grow, drop a comment and that person might come and check your pages out especially if you left a vote also and a real comment.

Yep, people should definitely be having a little more fun and finding their place. Fun doesn't mean shitpost only, it means clever, thoughtful, beautiful... whatever. Take part in @comedyopenmic or some ofther competitions, joke a little in the comments. make friends.

It is a different way to look at how your account is going and, it shows how you are earning more steem now than at the peaks of steem price and, you have stayed consistently earning even as price fell. :)

Great thoughts - the other interesting dynamic is whether and to what extent today's minnows (and perhaps dolphins+ for that matter) will be able to hold their nerve as the price starts to rise. $10 steem for a minnow holding over 500SP starts to become interesting. As it clips up to $20, $50 or even $100 (!) then we might start to see minnows/dolpins/orcas dropping like flies as they fold and cash in...!

I would like to think that we can all play the 'long game' but from 70c this stuff starts to play with people's minds, often in irrational ways. Interesting times ahead...

$10 steem for a minnow holding over 500SP starts to become interesting. As it clips up to $20, $50 or even $100 (!) then we might start to see minnows/dolpins/orcas dropping like flies as they fold and cash in...!

Absolutely. I know that at some point, I have to take something but, what is that point? Haven't go there yet.

I would like to think that we can all play the 'long game' but from 70c this stuff starts to play with people's minds, often in irrational ways. Interesting times ahead...

It does indeed but those who are still actively posting are generally earning more steem per week than they were at higher prices. Living off Steem would suck big time though.

But yeah, I decided to invest a little into Steem with the recent drop and brought my SP into the 800s. Realistically, I want to end up operating around 12.5-25k SP. The ambitious side of me really want to dive in and just sit on 125k-250k...

But alas, I'm uncertain about things like many here as well.

Until then, I will continue to experience the life as a minnow, then a dolphin, and maybe eventually an Orca instead of going full throttle into it. Just doing it for the experience.

I once thought I would get to 10k and then start cashing out or diversifying more..... realistically I can't make it to orca but in in a year and a half and a lot of sweat, I think I have done pretty well. A slightly different world with our daughter and I would have been able to buy in a bit but, having earned it on platform has its own value.

That's the question isn't it? I have to believe that the prices will come back up and that they will do this through an increase in users. At the moment we have 60k active users..... that is nothing. If we have 600k active users and all holding some amount of steem think of the demand that will place on the price. Hopefully we will see more apps coming online before Xmas like actifit that have the potential to bring on their own users. That is where the future lies.

Your post was upvoted by @steem-ua, new Steem dApp, using UserAuthority for algorithmic post curation!
Your UA account score is currently 6.100 which ranks you at #257 across all Steem accounts.
Your rank has dropped 1 places in the last three days (old rank 256).

In our last Algorithmic Curation Round, consisting of 487 contributions, your post is ranked at #21.

In the future it won't be easy to get past minnow status. It was tough when I started a year ago and if we get the extra users that will only get worse. Your numbers make sense and I am just hoping to see 100k active users brought in through our apps. I want to see more projects like actifit that can stand on their own and bring in users separately to the blockchain.

If we see apps that can do this we have a much better shot at a positive future. Blogging will never be the anchor for the blockchain but it can be a successful segment of it. For that to happen I think that we will need to move away from steemit and onto a platform with better interface and filters so that what we see is the right content and not a stream of everything that ends up on the blockchain like now.

If we have 100k accounts holding 500sp, ( I know that doesn't add up but just in theory ) then the demand for liquid steem would be huge as so much would be tied up in active accounts. If you need 100000sp to power an app it will have to come from somewhere and that in turn will increase the monetary rewards from people votes even if it is a small amount in steem. It's all to play for going forward.

I want to see more projects like actifit that can stand on their own and bring in users separately to the blockchain.

It really only needs one or two large success apps to make a massive difference.

Blogging will never be the anchor for the blockchain but it can be a successful segment of it.

It can still have a place. Well technically, any content have a place here, what makes or breaks it is the SP willing to support it. I see my blog as a dying breed but, it is going to be a long drawn out and wordy death ;)

If we have 100k accounts holding 500sp, ( I know that doesn't add up but just in theory ) then the demand for liquid steem would be huge as so much would be tied up in active accounts.

It can still have a place. Well technically, any content have a place here, what makes or breaks it is the SP willing to support it. I see my blog as a dying breed but, it is going to be a long drawn out and wordy death ;)

Well if all your posts are going to be the same length as this one we won't be putting you in the ground for a long time yet my friend. Hopefully you will still be alive when the first apps make it big and boost the steem price for us. We can send you off with a nice epitaph at that stage.

Hi Taraz. Very interesting post. It may seem obvious to you and a few others but it is good to be reminded from time to time. It is all about the bigger picture and getting your account away from the bottom. I have been dreading the mass on boarding until I was safe.

There is probably a number that Steem will tend towards, when that happens, though I don't know what it is.

The number may be related to the Golden ratio, of the Vitruvian Man, that seems to determine so many things in life, including the way technical analysis predicts Crypto prices.

In real terms, that number may be related to the percentage of Steemians that Steem to live (sellers), as opposed to those who Steem for fun (buyers). That balance will probably trend toward a very stable price point, though I've no idea what that price point will be. :0

There is an equilibrium point somewhere with a pulse that will slowly move back and forth with peaks and troughs until enough people come in to pull it towards a much flatter line. Impossible to predict what that point will be.

277 Orcas never voted me so NO! they are not doing a good job at all :)

I've recently became one of the 10499 by powering up 80 steem which I told myself to not to do, ever. ¯_(ヅ)_/¯ Lol I just check his wallet he almost backed with 60 Steem. gratz. We have different perspectives so well deserved, :thumbsup:

ps. It doesn't suck to see abusers, it sucks to see whales/orcas/witnesses backing them up.

Great report you have there. I am to aiming to become minnow but I still have a long way to go. I think the key of success is not to give up and after successfully achieving my goal it will be the time to give back more that what I can do for now
.

No worries. I will take a look. If you are posting a lot and will be doing so long term I would recommend looking at" ashers engagement and curation league". It takes your writing data for the week and has some big accounts competing every week with some steem on offer to the highest participants. Only if your serious on here, any spam or abuse will see you blacklisted.