NEW YORK  The number of murders in New York City is expected to hit a record low this year, and shootings are at their lowest point in at least 18 years, officials said Friday.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly credited police efforts, including the controversial tactic known as stop and frisk, and Bloomberg said the statistics showed "that the safest big city in America is safer."

So far, there have been 414 homicides citywide this year, 19 percent less than last year and the fewest since reliable record-keeping for killings began in 1963. The previous low was 471, in 2009.

There have been 1,353 shootings this year, a statistic with comparable records going back to 1994. The previous low was 1,420 in 2009, and the number has dropped by more than 8 percent since last year.

Violent crime hit high points in New York in the 1990s, with a record 2,245 murders in 1990.

While there have been ups and downs since, including a double-digit increase in murders in 2010, the overall drop in crime and violence has helped reshape the city's image. Bloomberg often calls New York the safest big city in America, a description based on FBI statistics for seven major crimes. New York has the lowest rate per 100,000 residents among the 25 most populous U.S. cities.

The decrease in crime in NYC is primarily the work of Rudy Giuliani, who really turned things around.

But Bloomberg deserves some credit. In many regards, he is a jerk. But he has refrained from reversing any of Giuliani’s policies to keep crime under control. He doesn’t emphasize it, but at least he has refrained from undoing it, as I expected when he first came into office.

Concealed carry in NYC (and Chicago, DC, etc) would probably have a minimal impact, if any, on the murder rate - many murders in those cities (and gun murders in particular) are thug-on-thug/gang-related.

Concealed carry would, however, lower the rates of other crimes in these cities, perhaps significantly.

Why would anyone be proud of 414 killed in NYC. That numbers could be lower with concealed Carry.

Because the per capita murder rates are lower than in southern cities without much gun regulation. In truth, though, I think all cities could have NYC murder rates if we had NYC's population density (27.5K per sq mile). Of course, most southern cities have fewer cops per capita and per square mile, because they don't have the tax revenues that come from being the nation's historic capital of finance, fashion, journalism and all that jazz. If implemented in southern cities, NYC's gun laws would lead to a massive crime wave.

13
posted on 12/28/2012 2:33:46 PM PST
by Zhang Fei
(Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)

Actually, the claims are well-founded. Compared to Oakland, Philadelphia, Detroit, Cleveland, and Baltimore... New York is a very safe city day and night. NYC barely hits the top 40 in violent crime. I’ve been pleasantly surprised given expectations.

He's crediting "stop and frisk" but not Bloomberg's gun policies? How could that be?

Because they're one and the same. The Bloomberg policy (actually a continuation of the Giuliani policy) is for police to stop any suspicious-looking "yutes" on any pretext (spitting in the street, smoking on the subway, etc.) and then frisk them for guns. Anyone found with a gun is then locked up under the Sullivan law.

A better indicator of “murder” rates, would be the attempted murders. Murders are only classified as such after a person has died.

With current medical and procedures and medicines, it is possible that there are a lot more people being saved by doctors and nurses and first responders, than in years past. It’s the same as in the military, where there are thousands of people who are living now after being injured in Afghanistan and Iraq, that would have died if it wasn’t for the newer procedures and medicines which have brought many from the brink of death.

Why do you attribute it to NYCs population density? In general, cities have more crime on average than less densely populated areas of the country.

Logically, assuming all other factors (race, median income, et al) are equal, more densely populated areas ought to have lower per capita crime because even when the number of police per capita are equivalent, the number of cops per square mile is higher, meaning that crooks have a shorter amount of time to do whatever they do, before a police patrol runs into them. For instance, NYC has a police to civilian ratio of 4.22 per 1000, whereas Dallas PD's ratio is 2.44 per 1000. However, NYC's police per square mile ratio is 74 compared to Dallas's 9. I suspect this is in part why Dallas's crime statistics are far worse than NYC's. Areaconnect has an interesting graph illustrating the difference in per capita crime:

24
posted on 12/28/2012 8:39:11 PM PST
by Zhang Fei
(Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)

Note that the difference in aggravated assaults per capita between Dallas and NYC is smaller than the difference in murders per capita. I suspect that’s also related to population density. An emergency room that is close by prevents aggravated assault from turning into murder. The victim might end up paralyzed from the neck down or limbless, but that would still be classified as assault rather than murder.

25
posted on 12/28/2012 8:49:18 PM PST
by Zhang Fei
(Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)

Stop and frisk? Where is the ACLU, the NAACP, and other "freedom-loving" organizations? Sounds like Bloomingidiotberg is creating the "Eden" that the Left wants to turn the whole Nation into - I wonder how much he is getting paid for preparing the model.

The numbers are real and Bloomie get credit but not as much as he thinks. The Dinkins years saw the 2,200s every year, then Guiliani and Bratton came in and developed broken windows tactics,increased numbers, unified the City with the transit and housing cops. By 2000 the numbers were in the 600s. nanny Bloomie benefited from Rudy’s work, a changing population where gentrification occured thanks to Rudy, and a decade of lowering crime nationwide. Bloomie’s numbers are far less impressive than Rudy’s. But,yes NYC is safer than most any large city in the country.,and certainly safer than any million plus city.

Cops busted a bomb factory today in the West village. Chemicals and weapons. Harvard educated revolutionary, reportedly the son of a well to do physician and his girlfriend. I tried unsuccessfully to post it on this site. I can’t understand why it didnt get picked up. It is from the NY Post and can be found in the local news section. Echoes of the 1960’s.

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