Monday, 3 March 2014

7 maps to help understand what’s happening in Ukraine

Ukraine’s language divide:

From the Washington Post, “It's not just that Ukraine has two halves that predominantly speak different languages. They have different politics – and different visions for their country. Check out this composite of four maps: the top two show the language and ethnic divide, the bottom two show the election results for the 2004 and 2010 presidential elections. The lines are identical! (The Russian-speaking, eastern half of Ukraine tends to be, big surprise, more pro-Russian. Yanukovych is from that part of the country, has most of his support there, and did not even speak Ukrainian until he was in his 50s.)”

Top left: Ukraine's Russian-speakers in blue. Top right: Major ethnic and linguistic groups. Bottom left: 2004 presidential election results. Bottom right: 2010 presidential results. The western half of the country voted overwhelmingly against Yanukovcyh; that's also where, until very recently, most of the protests have been. Source: Washington Post, “9 questions about Ukraine you were too embarrassed to ask”

Original locations of Russian military in the Crimea.

Recent movements of same.

Location of gas pipelines through Ukraine to paying customers in Europe.

The imbalance in power, population … and gas.

And finally, as Bernard Darnton notes, “Like most unfixable conflicts, the dividing line is on an ancient map”:

I don't agree with this emphasis this post gives to the crisis, drilling down on ethnic data to confuse and legitimise aggression. It's the same cop-out argument that was used in the Balkins (i.e. ethnic hatreds) that does stand up to critique. The linked thesis (below) does a good job of dispelling the ethnic hatreds argument, and lays the blame at politicians and psychopathic criminals (of which key participants were clearly both). http://www.scribd.com/doc/13765362/Yugoslavia-Dismantled-and-Plundered

The parallels are very ominous and the blame lies with politicians (including the Western politicians who provoke and abandon the local populace) and local thugs, but ethnicity is only their playing card of choice. It's the same card being played now as convenient cover for political ambition regardless of the cost to individual lives.

Another Michael write, "The parallels are very ominous and the blame lies with politicians (including the Western politicians who provoke and abandon the local populace) and local thugs, but ethnicity is only their playing card of choice. It's the same card being played now as convenient cover for political ambition regardless of the cost to individual lives."

Yes, you appear to be right. The trouble is that most of the commentators you are up against (or about to be) are collectvists and their mind set is always going to fixate on the ethnicity aspect.

Anyway, this mess ewas financed by EU, US and UK govt money (some $20-million a week). Shut of the $ spigot and let the residents sort out their own problems.

I am wondering whether Vladimir Putin decides to let Eurpoe have a bitter winter with no heating in 2014.

I am also wondering why NZ has a PM who won't rule out NZ getting involved in this business some thousands of miles away.

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