Possible runoff in Georgia

Stacey Abrams’ campaign has sent out an update about the possibility of a runoff in the Georgia governor’s race, where she is trailing behind Republican Brian Kemp, but tens of thousands of votes have yet to be counted. Some key facts from the Democratic candidate:

As of 4am local time, there was a difference of 85,167 votes separating Kemp and Abrams, which represents just over 2% of votes cast.

To trigger a runoff, the Abrams campaign needs to net 24,379 votes out of the tens of thousands of potential ballots that remain outstanding.

Three of the four largest counties in the state – DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Cobb – have reported only a portion of the votes that were submitted by early mail. In Cobb, anywhere between 25,000 and 26,000 votes were submitted early by mail.

Four other large counties – Chatham, Henry, Douglas, and Clarke – have reported zero votes by mail.

Together, those seven counties are expected to return a minimum of 77,000 ballots. These counties also represent heavily-Democratic leaning constituencies.

The election cycle saw the emergence of a new trend in political campaigning: denouncing the candidacies of one’s own family members. In Missouri, Steve West, a Republican candidate for the state general assembly, faced opposition from his son and daughter, who spoke out against his racist, homophobic and anti-Semitic views. In Utah, 12 relatives of Republican gubernatorial candidate Adam Laxalt wrote an op-ed calling the politico out for his “phoniness”. (Twenty-two relatives responded with their own op-ed supporting Laxalt, proving at the very least that the politico has a significant number of relatives.) And in Arizona, six of Republican congressman Paul Gosar’s nine siblings starred in a series of attack ads against their rightwing brother.

West and Laxalt both lost, Gosar won, and 45 people can look forward to a very interesting Thanksgiving.

In addition to flipping chambers in Colorado, Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire and New York, the Democrats have flipped a total of 333 seats, according to the DLCC. Maine, Colorado and Illinois also now have Democratic “trifectas”, with Democratic governors winning seats.

The DLCC reported that there were also a number of historic wins in the state races, including the first black state senator in New Hampshire, the first openly transgender state legislator in New Hampshire, the first openly LGBTQ state senator in Michigan, and the first Iranian-American state senator in New York.

Voting rights, marijuana, and tampons: the night in ballot measures

Animal rights victory in California

Andrew Gumbel

Animal welfare advocates notched a big victory in California, as voters approved a ballot measure requiring farmers to increase the size of cages holding hens, pigs and calves and ensure that all eggs sold in the state are cage-free by 2022.

The vote has national implications because the regulations extend to any farm or agribusiness wanting to do business in California.

Now, thousands of farm animals will be spared of pain and suffering from being confined in tiny cages, barely big enough for them to turn around. We can’t thank you enough for voting #YesOn12, California! pic.twitter.com/mbcy1imVVO

California voters also resisted calls to repeal a state gas tax passed to improve roads and other crumbling infrastructure. The measure, heavily touted by Republicans, was widely seen as a stalking-horse measure to excite Republican voters in a state where Republicans generally have little to be excited about.

Some background from the Guardian’s Dominic Rushe on the significance of Scott Walker’s defeat in Wisconsin:

Few governors have been as influential as Scott Walker in the past decade. Walker brought the state to a standstill and himself to national attention in 2011 after passing Act 10, a bill that gutted collective bargaining rights for public sector unions and slashed their benefits. Thousands took to the street’s in protest and opponents attempted to have Walker kicked out of office. The governor not only beat off the recall move, the first governor in the US to survive such an effort, but won re-election in 2012.

Act 10 has led to a dramatic slump in union membership in Wisconsin and made Walker a star among the anti-labour, big business set, as the Guardian showed in 2016. The Koch brothers and others have poured millions into his campaigns and anti-tax advocate Grover Norquist has argued Walker has been more influential in defeating the progressive agenda than Trump. If his policies are “enacted in a dozen more states, the modern Democratic party will cease to be a competitive power in American politics. It’s that big a deal,” he wrote last year.

Walker then launched a short-lived bid for the Republican presidential nomination but was firmly beaten back by Trump. Not that it cooled his ardor for the party. Since his re-election Walker has worked tirelessly to ensure Republican dominance in the state. In 2011, Republicans redrew Wisconsin’s electoral boundaries, effectively eliminating swing districts and creating safe Republican seats.

In the first election after the redistricting, Republicans won 60 out of 99 seats in the state assembly with just 48.6% of the statewide vote. In the 2014 election, Republicans won 63 of the 99 seats with just 52% of the vote. Local Democrats sued and a lower court ruled the redistricting was unconstitutional.

California races too close to call

Andrew Gumbel

With many of California’s most closely fought congressional races too close to call, candidates began to prepare their supporters and campaign volunteers for the prospect of a vote count that could last not just hours but days or even weeks.

In California’s 48th district, where Democratic businessman Harley Rouda is seeking to unseat the eccentric rightwing incumbent Dana Rohrabacher, Rouda seized on a temporary lead of 800 votes to tell an enthusiastic crowd in a hotel ballroom, “I don’t know when the final returns will be completed here.”

His supporters were having none of it. “I do!” one shouted. “You’ll win!”

Still, the speech was a signal that a final result was unlikely to come any time soon. At least three other California races, in the 10th, 25th and 45th districts, were within five percentage points, with many more returns still to come. Absentee ballots are likely to throw a further element of the unknown – particularly those postmarked as late as election day which might not be delivered and ready to count until later this week.

Rouda said he was confident he would get over the finish line and spoke of the need for elected officials “who put country and community first” – a dig at Rohrabacher’s cosy relationship with Putin’s Russia and the alignment of his policy positions with his corporate campaign contributions.

Alaska's Don Young re-elected

Alaska representative Don Young, the longest-serving member of the House, has won a 24th term, defeating Alyse Galvin, an education advocate. Young was first elected in 1973, and Galvin was making her first run for political office.

Recently, he faced widespread condemnation after he suggested that Jews could have avoided perishing in the Holocaust if they had armed themselves. Here’s a thread from earlier in the day on Young’s history:

Jordan Rudner (@jrud)

In the race for Congress, Don Young (R) is facing off Alyse Galvin (D). I cannot adequately explain Don Young in a tweet. He regularly wields an 18-inch walrus penis bone for when trying to emphasize a point. He once *threatened to bite* a fellow Republican.

Democrats secure 218 seats to gain control of House

It’s official. Democrats have gained the 218 seats needed to seize control of the US House, the AP reported at around 3am EST.

The Associated Press (@AP)

Democrats have seized control of the U.S. House, giving them power to investigate President Trump and block much of his agenda. Find AP’s full coverage on our midterm elections site. #Election2018https://t.co/tnNrlrq2Lt

Brian Kemp: 'Math is on our side to win'

Brian Kemp, the Republican nominee for governor in Georgia, has just addressed supporters, saying his campaign was still “waiting on the final results”, but adding:

Make no mistake, the math is on our side to win this election. We are waiting on the final results, but I’m confident that victory is near.

Kemp has faced intense scrutiny for his decision to continue overseeing the elections as secretary of state and has previously said he won’t recuse himself if the race goes to a recount. Kemp was leading by a small margin as of around 3am local time, but Stacey Abrams has not conceded.

Chandler Morgan (@Chandler_TV)

@BrianKempGA addressing election watch party supporters: “What am amazing night we’ve had.. there are votes still to count, but we have a strong lead and make no mistake, the math is on our side... I’m confident that victory is near.” @WTVMpic.twitter.com/qiODnxeKwW

Stacey Abrams: 'Every vote is getting counted'

Stacey Abrams has delivered a passionate early morning speech saying she will fight to ensure that every vote is counted:

Oliver Laughland (@oliverlaughland)

Abrams now addressing the crowd: “Democracy only works when we work for it,” she says. “We are going to make sure tonight that every vote is counted... Our best are lives are within reach.” pic.twitter.com/7InvwCe535

Hard work is in our bones, and we have proven this every single day, Georgia ... Tonight, we have closed the gap between yesterday and tomorrow. But we still have a few more miles to go. Here me clearly – that, too, is an opportunity to show the world who we are. Because in Georgia, civil rights has always been an act of will and a battle for our souls...

Democracy only works when we work for it, when we fight for it, when we demand it. And apparently today when we stand in lines for hours to meet at the ballot box, that’s when democracy works. But I’m here tonight to tell you, votes remain to be counted. There are voices that are waiting to be heard....

We believe our chance for a stronger Georgia is just within reach. But we cannot seize it until all voices are heard. And I promise you tonight we’re going to make sure that every vote is counted. Every single vote. Every vote’s getting counted ... In a civilized nation, the machinery of democracy should work for everyone, everywhere, not just in certain places and not just on the certain day.

It’s a shock defeat for Walker, known for his attacks on Wisconsin’s public sector unions, and a surprise win for Evers, the state’s public education chief. Here’s Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs’ earlier report this year on Walker:

Scott Walker: can the Wisconsin governor survive in the age of Trump?

Devin Nunes wins re-election

Andrew Gumbel

Democrats in California have their sights on seven congressional districts that returned a Republican congressman in 2016 but favored Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. A little more than two hours after the polls closed in the Golden State, the Republicans enjoy a clear lead in two of the districts (the 21st and 39th), the Democrats enjoy a clear lead in one (the 49th), and the rest appear to be toss-ups.

Just a few dozen votes separate Katie Hill, a millennial affordable housing activist, from incumbent Republican congressman Steve Knight in the 25thdistrict northwest of Los Angeles, and just a few dozen votes separate Harley Rouda, a businessman, from 15-term Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher on the Orange County coast.

Campaign volunteers and staff for Andrew Janzhigh five at their campaign headquarters in Fresno, California. Photograph: Alex Edelman/REX/Shutterstock

The other races the Democrats had fantasized about winning appear to be slipping from their grasp. Duncan Hunter, the Republican congressman indicted earlier this year on corruption charges, appears to be pulling away from Ammar Campa-Najjar, the 29-year-old former Obama White House staffer who faced daunting odds in a heavily conservative area of suburban San Diego.

And Devin Nunes, the controversial chair of the House Intelligence Committee accused of covering for Trump in Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation, has won re-election despite a spirited challenge from Andrew Janz, a prosecutor from Fresno in the agricultural inland Central Valley.

After calling the night a “tremendous success” earlier, Trump is now tweeting praise of himself. The president has not tweeted about the Democrats winning back the House.

Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

“There’s only been 5 times in the last 105 years that an incumbent President has won seats in the Senate in the off year election. Mr. Trump has magic about him. This guy has magic coming out of his ears. He is an astonishing vote getter & campaigner. The Republicans are.........

....unbelievably lucky to have him and I’m just awed at how well they’ve done. It’s all the Trump magic - Trump is the magic man. Incredible, he’s got the entire media against him, attacking him every day, and he pulls out these enormous wins.” Ben Stein, “The Capitalist Code”