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Almond farmers in central California have seen the price for almonds drop 10 %, along with a steep drop in shipments the past several months. The steep price drop is largely due to falling shipments to China and Hong Kong, along with a bumper almond crop.

“There is an even more ominous aspect to these subsidies is the idea of ‘hunkering down’ for the long term. With no plan for ending the trade war except vague goals of ‘fair deals’ the Trump Trade War can easily get out of hand. The following analysis by Oxford Economics shows how a full-fledged trade war with China could cost the U.S. billions of dollars to the US economy and shave off 1 % cumulative GDP growth by 2020. Needless to say, a trade war of this magnitude will trigger a recession which will be deep and difficult to turnaround. By creating angst with our allies and customers, it will be difficult to win back their trust and their business.”

The trade war needs to stop now, the pause with the EU announced last week was a good start, more needs to be done with China.

“Reverse all the ill-advised, poorly throughout and threatening oriented tariffs. Work through the WTO, which the U.S. helped to create, use other means to get more fair trade deals, work with our allies to focus on specific markets and opportunities without using myopic goals missing important data – like total trade deficit in goods and services not just goods. It is not too late, the armistice announced today with the EU on any new tariffs is a good start. Will the Administration come to an armistice with China? Considering how this Administration works, we are not holding our breath – just hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.”