You'd be brave to tip against Storm, but I am

1. Newcastle will beat Melbourne

Anyone betting regularly against the Storm in big games over the years is now walking around with the backside out of their trousers. When you look at Melbourne's almost faultless home ground record as well, one would have to be crazy to be tipping against them this weekend. Let's also throw in the fact that the Storm have already beaten Newcastle twice this season. Surely we have to tip the Storm. Well, I'm not so sure. I really liked what I saw from the Knights last weekend. Granted, Canterbury weren't at their best, but I put a lot of that down to the resilience and toughness of the Newcastle boys. The Knights' defence was outstanding. They have classy players in the back line who can produce points. They have the coach in Wayne Bennett who knows how to get his team on a roll at this time of year. But the major factor for me was the spirit and togetherness the Newcastle boys displayed. I know it sounds a little too simple, but these factors can go a long way in big matches. I liked what I saw. It was powerful. Knights by 6.

2. Manly vulnerable this weekend

Manly's performance last weekend against the Roosters, without the services of their star fullback Brett Stewart, was nothing short of brilliant. However, the brutally physical nature of that contest could well leave them vulnerable when they take on the Sharks this weekend in a sudden-death encounter. My mail is that the Rooster players claim they have never been so sore after a football match and are extremely grateful they don't have to play again this weekend. I can only imagine the Manly boys are feeling it, too. The Sharks' match on the same day against the Cowboys was solid as well, but nothing like the physical battering Manly and Roosters subjected themselves to only hours later. If Manly can reproduce the physical effort I think they will be too strong for the Sharks. However, the Cronulla team is full of very experienced hard heads, all of whom who could make life very difficult for the bruised Sea Eagles. I will say Manly by 2.

3. Rabbitohs and Roosters sitting pretty

The teams qualifying first and second on the ladder after the home and away season have now won their way through to the preliminary finals. For South Sydney, it will be the second year in a row they have won through to this game. For the minor premiers, the Sydney Roosters, it will be their seventh preliminary final of the past 16 years. It gives both these teams a tremendous advantage to reach the grand final. While they can sit back and relax this weekend without risking further aggravation, new injuries or suspensions, their prospective opponents will have no such luxuries and will have to get through another bruising encounter. Having lost only six games each this season, it is hard to deny these two clubs have earned the right to play in a preliminary final and their performances in the first week of the finals further justified their ratings as the two top teams. If Manly and Melbourne win their-semi finals this weekend, we are set for two of the best preliminary finals in recent memory with a confident prediction in either game almost impossible.

4. Sea Eagles-Roosters match was a classic

When you witness a match like the one Manly and Sydney Roosters produced on Saturday night, you find it hard to ever remember seeing a better one. The one freshest in your memory always seems to be the best. It was a stunning game of rugby league. The defence from both teams was the best and most intense I've ever seen. It's not as though the attacking games were poor either. Both teams threw the ball around and tested each other all over the park. There were also countless attacking kicks that had to be defused to avoid conceding points. To think the only try in the 80-minute contest came from a grubber kick, grounded only centimetres inside the dead ball line, makes the result even more astounding. What the game did reinforce, though, is the huge chasm in ability that exists this season between the top four teams in the competition and those teams that missed the top eight. No teams outside the top eight could have survived in a battle of this intensity.

The biggest issue in the Cronulla v North Queensland semi-final was the game clock debacle, not the seventh-tackle try. Photo: Brendan Esposito

5. The game clock debacle

There has been considerable hysteria following the awarding of a seventh-tackle try to Cronulla in their semi-final against North Queensland. Undoubtedly it was a big mistake by the officials, embarrassing for the game, and those responsible have been held accountable. However, it was simply a human error, a number of which occur in every game of rugby league. I accept human error from on-field officials. It's part of the game and the difficulty of the job. I'm far more concerned with errors made by video referees who get it wrong despite having umpteen looks at a video replay. To my mind, the game clock debacle in the dying stages of that match, where timekeepers did not restart the clock once play had resumed, represented a significantly greater blunder. Had the Cowboys snatched victory in the dying moments as a result of the extra time, it would have been a disaster.

6. Seven tackles didn't beat the Cowboys

Let's get this straight. The seventh-tackle try did not cost North Queensland the game. The incident occurred in the eighth minute of play. There was a lot of football played from this point until full-time. All players from both teams were blissfully unaware of the missed tackle count at the time and all were simply playing to the whistle. No player was confused or inconvenienced because of the extra tackle. It wasn't like when players stop because they have seen an obvious forward pass or knock-on. When you consider the fact that teams regularly defend seven-tackle sets during the course of a game due to the zero tackle option; and sometimes are forced to defend, 9, 10 and 11-tackle sets after a referee has incorrectly signalled "six again" during a set, the fact this defensive set went one tackle too long did not even raise an eyebrow with the Cowboys' players. North Queensland led twice more in the contest after this incident (including a penalty goal after a dubious stripping call) and they had every chance to win the match. Every time they got to the front, Cronulla found a way to come over the top of them and regain the lead. I am not trying to downplay this incident, and one must have enormous sympathy for the Cowboys, but it is a rare occurrence and I dare say the rage of many in response to it has had little to do with the actual mistake.

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7. Seriously, you can't be serious

Suggestions that the seventh-tackle try was all part of a conspiracy to remove Queensland teams from the finals series in favour of Sydney teams, or that such a conspiracy exists as payback for Queensland's eight seasons of State of Origin dominance, would have to be the most ridiculous comments I have ever heard in all my time in football. I can only put such rubbish down to the emotion and stress of losing such a close match. I get it that the North Queensland fans are still fuming after the Kieran Foran incident last season; and so they should, because that mistake by officials was completely unforgivable and infinitely greater than the missed tackle count call on the weekend. However, these insane conspiracy accusations as to why these events have occurred are far worse than the actual abuse itself. Surely they can't be serious.