Can Baywatch Beat Pirates 5 at the Memorial Day Box Office?

Marvel's two-week summer reign came to an end this past weekend, when Alien: Covenant ($36.1 million) unseated Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($34.6 million) in a close race at the box office. The R-rated sci-fi thriller's time at the top of the box office charts will be quite short-lived, though, with this Memorial Day weekend featuring two highly-anticipated movies squaring off against each other, Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, and Paramount's Baywatch, although Baywatch will get a bit of a head start, opening on Thursday, May 25 instead of Friday, May 26. Still, this won't change the fact that Pirates 5 should have no trouble walking away with the box office crown, with a three-day tally of $81.2 million and a four-day total of $96.4 million.

Box Office Mojo reports that Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales will be released in more than 4,000 theaters, which is no surprise since three of the four movies in the franchise were launched in more than 4,000 theaters apiece. The last installment of this swashbuckling Pirates franchise, 2011's Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, opened with $90.1 million over the Memorial Day weekend holiday, a solid debut by any means, but still continuing a downward trend for these Captain Jack Sparrow (Johnny Depp) movies, after the breakout success of the first movie, 2003's Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl.

That first movie, which earned Johnny Depp an Oscar nomination for his portrayal of Captain Jack Sparrow, was a surprise hit in the summer of 2003, opening with $46.6 million en route to a $305.4 million domestic take and $654.2 million worldwide, from a $140 million budget. The 2006 follow-up Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest debuted with a whopping $423.3 million domestic and $1.066 billion worldwide from a $225 million budget, the highest grossing movie of the year both domestically and globally. However, the last movie of the original trilogy, 2007's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, decreased just slightly, with a $114.7 million debut en route to $309.4 million domestic and $963.4 million worldwide, from a staggering $300 million budget. Four years later, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides opened with $90.1 million, with $241 million domestic, the lowest in franchise history, although its massive international take ($804.6 million) pushed it to $1.045 billion worldwide. It's been six years since that adventure, so it will be interesting to see how fans respond this time around, but it's clear the critics have not treated it well.

As of now, Pirates 5 has a paltry 34% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but its competitor Baywatch is faring much worse, with just a 10% score from the nation's critics. Baywatch is expected to open in roughly 3,400 theaters this weekend, and we're predicting it will open with $23.7 million over the three-day weekend, with $31.6 million over the four-day holiday weekend. We're predicting that the four-day holiday top 5 will be rounded out by last weekend's winner Alien: Covenant ($19.4 million), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($17.9 million) and Everything, Everything ($6.3 million).

Thrust into an all-new adventure, a down-on-his-luck Captain Jack Sparrow finds the winds of ill-fortune blowing even more strongly when deadly ghost pirates led by his old nemesis, the terrifying Captain Salazar (Javier Bardem), escape from the Devil's Triangle, determined to kill every pirate at sea...including him. Captain Jack's only hope of survival lies in seeking out the legendary Trident of Poseidon, a powerful artifact that bestows upon its possessor total control over the seas. The Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales cast also includes Kaya Scodelario as Carina Smyth, a brilliant and beautiful astronomer, Brenton Thwaites as Henry, a headstrong young sailor in the Royal Navy., Kevin R. McNally as Joshamee Gibbs, Golshifteh Farahani as the sea-witch Shansa, David Wenham as Scarfield, Stephen Graham as Scrum, and Geoffrey Rush as Captain Hector Barbossa.

Baywatch follows devoted lifeguard Mitch Buchannon (Dwayne Johnson) as he butts heads with a brash new recruit (Zac Efron). Together, they uncover a local criminal plot that threatens the future of the Bay. The film stars Dwayne Johnson, Zac Efron, Priyanka Chopra, Alexandra Daddario, Jon Bass, Kelly Rohrbach, and Ilfenesh Hadera, with Seth Gordon directing. The top 5 will likely be rounded out by Snatched ($4.7 million), Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul ($3.9 million), King Arthur: Legend of the Sword ($3.8 million), The Fate of the Furious ($2.8 million) and The Boss Baby ($2.1 million). Also arriving in limited release is Broad Green's documentary Buena Vista Social Club: Adios, Screen Media's Drone, Parade Deck Films' The Here After, Indican's action film Jasmine and Abramorama's Long Strange Trip - The Untold Story of The Grateful Dead.