April 19, 2017

'Thunder'TALK! Wednesday Edition

This afternoon:Few pop-up t-storms. Mainly SE of Louisville, although we will need to watch the edge of this AM's fog bank across IN as well for a quick pop-up t-storm. Warmer day into the lower 80s.

Thursday:Warm. Mid 80s. A broken line of t-storms likely by the afternoon (roughly after 3-4pm). This will not be a solid/squall-line setup. A broken line of clusters of t-storms. Which will make timing a challenge for any given location. The potential is there for a few warnings for briefly severe t-storms, but most will fall under that threshold.

Friday:Front stall to our south. This will likely keep clouds in the area and showers for our southern counties. The amount of sunshine will determine our high that day. Generally in the 60s.

Saturday:sunrise-2pm: A wave of rain moves in. Perhaps moderate rainfall. Temps in the upper 40s/low 50s during this period. 2pm-5pm: Heavy rain will be very close to us from the south. General light rain elsewhere. Too early to make a call where Louisville will be located in this setup. Temps in the 50s.5pm-9pm: Heaviest rain threat period. Especially over central Kentucky. Temps slide back a few degrees. Cooler at the waterfront. Remember that. Winds E/NE all day/evening.9pm-11pm: Heaviest rain shifts south. How quickly and how far south are key questions that remain unanswered. Temps steady.

Sunday:Early showers east. Clouds linger. Sunshine breaks out west to east by the afternoon. Temps in the 60s west of I-65 and 50s east.

The track/speed of this low on Saturday will make a big difference on the rainfall rate and cloud ceiling. Otherwise, the more confident factors at play will be the idea of a cool day (40s/50s) with rain falling at times.

We will keep trending that data as we are about to get more HI-RES data that will help give us more detail on different layers of the atmosphere for Saturday that we really need to have before we can "lock in" a forecast.