Week In Review – Hamels, Turning It Around

Cole Hamels finished off the week with his fifth win in a row and leads the Phillies staff with those five wins. Hamels is the third guy in a rotation behindRoy Halladay and Cliff Lee, but its the lefty thats been confusing hitters all season.

Hamels recent domination has people talking; and calling. Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported this past week that Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous has been asking about Hamels and Shane Victorino.

Both Hamels and Victorino are free agents after the season, and if the Phillies keep this up they could be sellers.

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At this point in the season, Charlie Manuel has got to be racking his brain trying to figure out what is going on with this team. He has one of his infamous closed door meetings with the team trying to light a fire under the guys. Another way to do that is to shake things up a bit. Most of these moves were because of injuries but the Phillies pulled up some new faces this week.

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So right now the Phillies are 16-19 and in last place in the NL East. I thought it would be a dark, dark day when the Phillies found themselves in the basement six games behind the Braves. However, for me, I will never fully count them out until they are officially eliminated from the playoffs.

It’s a good thing my pal Jon feels the same way. Listen up, he tells you why the Phillies can still turn it around this season.

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When a team is floundering this bad there has to be some blame. The Phillies could point the finger at the offense or the bench for not coming through in big situations. In the Phillies’ case, you wouldn’t be wrong to hold the bullpen under the bus. They have been the absolute worse this season. The one bright spot is closer Jonathan Papelbon. He is 10 for 10 in save situations but before today hadn’t the opportunity to save a game since May 1.

I don’t want Cole to go. He is a terrific pitcher. The fact that he is not signed yet while his value goes up every breathing second can only lead to the conclusion that Ruben can’t or won’t pay him. I believe that Cole will get a 7 year deal. There is no precedent that the Phillies would ever go that high in years for a pitcher. Plus, it almost never works out when a team does it. IF the Phils continue to suck AND Ruben Phils he can’t sign him then Cole HAS to be traded. If anyone thinks they can work something out with him once he hits FA then they are crazy. Therefore, for Ruben to let him walk at the end of the year for nothing while you pretty much knew all along that you weren’t gonna sign him……it would just be complete malfeasance, bordering on criminal.

The joke of all tis is that the Phils have pleeeeeeeenty of money to pay Cole but for the artificial construct of the “luxury tax”. If there was ever a time to blow through the tax its now. And make no bones about it…..I mean no “hovering around it”. Just blow through and be the Yankees. In the end….why not? Cuz you have to pay tat stupid tax which is peanuts to tis franchise? Cause you’ll make the other owners mad? The name of the game is WINNING. Am I right?

Dipsy, you are 100% correct. Cole needs to be signed….NOW! Maybe there is something in the works. Just because WE haven’t heard anything doesn’t mean that there isn’t deal being worked out. And we all know that Ruben likes to play it close to the vest with stuff like this….which he should. I’m still confident.

Chuck. I am not. Everything seemed to shut down when Matt Cain signed. If Cole Hamels agent thinks Cole can get a 7y/175 in FA then Ruben cannot sign him while operating under the current payroll structure. Its virtually impossible. And even if Cole would give a little bit of a hometown discount, how much money is he willing to leave on the table? Its very bad. I think Ruben knows he can’t sign him but when can he do? Its very bad.

This is why they really never should have brought Cliff Lee back. I know they wanted to go all in for last season and probably this one…and, in reality, last year was successful from the standpoint of winning 102 games (once you get to the postseason it’s a crapshoot). They dominated the standings and probably thought they could this year as well. Nobody could have predicted that Howard would go down the way he did and that Chase would start the year AGAIN on the DL. So I get why they brought Lee back. But now look at the mess Ruben has. He’s saddled with Cliff’s salary and maybe can’t sign Cole, who in my opinion, is the better pitcher anyway.

Face it, Cole is as good as gone. He’d be stupid from a business point of view not to test the free agent market. THE REAL QUESTION IS: when are we going to have a Juan Pierre bobble-head day? He is the face of the NEW PHILLIES. a veteran with a little octane left in the tank who understands the game.

I do not get why you can not let a guy for nothing. Your are not going to get much for Cole for half a year, I know I know dipsy, packing him and the team that is going to get him can sign him long term. You just do not get that much for a guy you can simply just pay in four months. I want them to resign him, but I do not sign him to seven years, and I really do not think a team is going to give him seven guarenteed years. Maybe five years with two vested options years if he pitches x-number of innings. I think if you can give him 22-24 million avg salary for five years with some kind of options on the end he would take that. Now if you are ten games back nearing the trade deadline maybe you look at offers, but if you 4-5 games out, you keep him play for this year and let the chips fall where they may.

One of RAJ biggest problems is his optimism. Thinking what he brought in was enough to replace one of the biggest home run hitters in the game is obsurd. Utley is close to being done, I am just not sure why he was not prepared for this, the signs were there last year.

Home grown talent is how we one in 08, there was no big FA signing or piece that won it for us it was
Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels,
Lidge was a gret piece, but we showed how to win now we have ventured far from the blueprints.

I love the Lee deal and Halladay deal, but if you make those deals you know that you set the market for Cole and that you will have to ante up big for him, you do not make those 2 deals if you are not ready to sign our home grown talent.

There is no midseason trade that will help this team their fate will lie in what they already have, hoping Howard is back soon and Utley can be a spark.

Trading off Cole would be stupid, but if you can’t sign him it would worse to let him walk. You better get a huge package for him or RAJ will be run out of town, he might anyway, but then we will end up in the black hole that I refer to as the late 80’s the result of the Von Hayes deal.

Players want to come here or at least they did until now, If they do not sign Hamels that will tarnish that idea.

I agree with Dipsy, this is a crossroads, and financially they need to go the way of the Yankees until Utley and Howard. Not giving up young players but signing the big deals.

We really have no replacement for either Howard or Utley or Victorino or Pence. Nothing ready soon, we do have a ton of pitchers, but none of Hamels caliber.

We need to shed the contacts of Polanco, Contreras, and Blanton and sign a legit 3rd baseman, sign Hamels and Vic this year and maybe buyout Pences last year in arb, while he is at a lower value. And yes this will all blow us past the Luxury Tax, but it has to happen then you start focusing on bringing in the young talent, stock up on position players in the draft.

The other thing that needs to happen is I feel they need better instruction, I know Charlie is a hitting guru blah blah. The MO on the Phillies is that you come to this team you become an impatient hitter, Look at Pence, he was very patient in Houston now he is a mess. Manuel does not know how to teacher patience and neither does Greg Gross. I think it is time for one of them to go most likely Gross.

Promote Sandberg! to Hitting coach, then when Charlie is gone he takes over.

“Thinking what he brought in was enough to replace one of the biggest home run hitters in the game is obsurd.”
— I doubt he thought they would be a 100% replacement, but when Howard was expected in May, why would he bring in another starting first baseman?

“Utley is close to being done, I am just not sure why he was not prepared for this, the signs were there last year.”
— He may be close to being done, but I’m not sure there were enough signs to bring in another starting-quality second baseman given a finite budget:
1) Utley started all but 16 of the 116 games after returning last year (8 of the 16 due to a concussion)
2) after returning, he was the 3rd best-hitting second baseman in the NL and one of the best overall second basemen in the game.
3) he said he felt find all winter as he rehabbed the right knee that caused him to miss the start of 2011

“The MO on the Phillies is that you come to this team you become an impatient hitter, Look at Pence, he was very patient in Houston now he is a mess. ”

This is way off.
– they took the first pitch far more than any other team in the league
– they took the 2nd most pitches overall in the NL last year
– they were among the best teams in running hitters counts
– they were 5th in the NL in walks (and 3rd, once Utley returned)
– they had the 2nd fewest strikeouts

Also, you have the Pence situation backwards — he became much MORE patient after coming to the Phillies:

– 4+ years in Houston: walked 6.8% of the time, saw 3.73 pitches per PA
– 2011 after the trade: walked 11.0% of the time, saw 4.03 pitches per PA

Disrespect him? Whatever. I think Cole will get 7 fully guaranteed years. I don’t know why he would agree to two option years when he doesn’t need to. I would be really surprised if there is not some kind of “gentlemen’s agreement” (to put it lightly) for teams to stay under the luxury tax. Does major league baseball really expect this agreement by the clubs to last forever when a select few teams just flout it? We have the money so lets spend the money and luxury tax be damned….if only for a few seasons.

in 2008 Johan Santana got a 6 year, $137 M contract … and in 2009, CC Sabathia signed an 8 year, $182 M contract …with an opt-out clause, that he used – to a new 5 year- $122 M contract (overall it added a year, and $30 M to his deal) …..

The Phillies MAX deal for a pitcher is Lee (who reportedly left some $20 M on the table from NYY)… so I’d imagine if Hamels was willing to sign a 5-year-deal, he’d be signed by now …. it looks like if he’s seeking a 7-year-deal …he’s going to want to be paid closer to $200 M than $100 M ………..

Interesting you guys are talking about this, there is a big story on MLBTR today on Cole as a trade candidate.

I didn’t know that under the new CBA, if you trade for a rental, you get no pick if he signs elsewhere. So for instance, that young pitcher the Giants gave away for Beltran, and then they got nothing when he signed w/ the Cardinals. This lowers Cole’s trade value even further.

Dipsy is right…Cole will get seven years and a KING’S RANSOM. Amaro, Jr. better open the
vault if he wants to sign this stud. Otherwise, adios Phillies for Senor Cole. Trade Halliday and keep Cole and do it ASAP.. I love Halladay, but Cole is six years younger and we may get a lot for Halladay because he has ample years left on his contract. Of course, we need to open up talks with Cole and his agent, and that may indeed be too late.

I’ve been one of Ruben biggest supporters on here, even to the point of being called a “Ruben apologist” a time or two. But I am now of the opinion that if he doesn’t re-sign Cole that he should be fired. There is NO WAY that, as a GM of one of the biggest market and biggest payroll teams, that you allow an extremely talented, HOME-GROWN LEFTY that’s just 28 years old to slip away.

If Hamels gets an offer as ridiculous as the Werth deal, Amaro would be a fool not to let him go. Should he have been fired for not paying Jayson twice what he was worth for more years than he’ll be able to play? I think not.

Check out my Hamels piece (link below)… I’ve been right on the money with my FA prediction pieces. Nailed Jimmy within $3 million in total dollars (even had the option year). Had CJ Wilson going to the Angels for 5 years and $75 million… he got 5 years and $77.5. Said Pujols would get a 10 year deal shy of his $30 million per demands (he got 10 and $24 million). My Cole prediction (written April 4th) – 7 years with a 4th year opt out at $135 million total dollars OR an 8 or 9 year deal at $150 million (less money but one or two extra years). He’s 28 years old (he’s going to pitch another 7 years, at least), he’s left handed, he has hardware and he seems to be getting stronger. There are going to be plenty of teams willing to go 7 years with Hamels and I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple of teams threw 8-9 year offers out there. The opt-out gives him the protection to be able to re-enter free agency (a la CC Sabathia).

You can talk about firing Ruben all you want – but to use the argument that they shouldn’t have signed Lee and Halladay because its either set a bad precedent OR because it left no money for Cole is stupid. Whenever you have the opportunity to sign one of the those guys you do it – and Ruben did. The mistake may have been not locking up Cole two years ago or last year. But again, there was so much money on the payroll, it would have been hard to do. It may just all come down to the old adage “you can’t sign everyone”.

OCP – Option Shmoption. When you get 25 or 26m a year, you could give a damn about opting out. I think Cole might even get 8 years. Ruben needs to get ownership to let him go over the threshold because that the only was he can sign him. And while its not my money – ownership should give it to him.

Well, Dipsy, David Montgomery was asked that very question during S.T. … whether they would be willing to have three $20+M starting pitchers on the payroll at the same time….and he said yes, definitely. So if he’s serious about that then he needs to take it to his partners and pitch it strongly and have them open up the purse and basically do whatever it takes to sign him.

Anyone signed for more than 4 years is an F*n waste. Look at Werth, look at Pujols (so far), look at Howard – long term contracts are a mess. I anticipate that Lee will fall apart way before his time, long before his contract is up. Long term contracts are ugly and stupid.
However, we know its the only way that Hamels can be signed. Once signed I also anticipate maybe 2 or 3 years productivity at best.
7 years blows, 8 years is totally rediculous but what can you do?

I agree. But as long as teams offer that length thats what players will demand and that what it will take to sign them. It does suck. I say we go to football….signing bonuses and non guaranteed contracts.

7/175 ?? Yes. Sign him. While no one knows for sure how things are gonna work out, I think you gotta take a chance here. 7 years goes by and he’s still only 35-36. Young enough for another smaller deal to finish off his career. I think the Phillies have to be serious here and do what it takes. Guys like Cole don’t come around all that often. If he plays his entire career here he has the chance (strong word there) to be the greatest left-hander this city has ever seen. Yes….I actually said.

Signing Cole Hamels should be priority ONE for the Phils. Fact is, he may want to go back home to the west coast. It is a lifestyle thing and if he can get big bucks , then why shouldn’t he? Expect to see Cole in a Dodgers or Angels uniform next season. Probably the Dodgers.

truth is, they haven’t resigned many of their 2008 team …..Howard, and Rollins are the only ones with new deals since then I believe ?

The other “old” guys – Polanco, Ibanez … were just the Best Available at their positions when they were signed …..keeping in mind of course that Beltre turned down more money from the Phillies to take a one year deal in Boston..

I’m assuming one of the contracts you are now complaining about is Chase Utley ?? Who – up until two years ago was signed to one of the best contracts in baseball for a player of his stature

It was simple and easy no harm no foul.
A common sense thing even.
Do a day for him when Kansas city comes to town even. But he is no longer our burden.

When I call him Ruben Minaya its for a reason.
Omar Minaya signed Billy Wagner and Fransisco Rodriguez long term.
The signature move of a bad GM is signing another teams closer long term.
It is jumping the shark.

Donny you think the Phils were better than the Giants in 2010 and the Cardinals in 2011.
You are Ruben. You think they are the best team this year. Its OK. But.

I want a GM who wants to win.
Not on a blog saying how great Howard and Utley are and waiting for them to cure crippleness.

I want Hamels resigned. A guy on here once said “if you don’t have a bad contract or two it means you’re not trying”. I believe that. Ruben did what he did and if Howard and Utley were healthy and playing at 80% of how good they were when they were actually signed then we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

If the owners of the Phillies know that they can afford Hamels and the only thing holding them back from signing him is the luxury tax, well, I think thats silly. The Phils are filthy rich I’m sure and good for them. They put a great product on the field. So pay the money to perpetuate. If the Phillies bust through the cap, people throughout baseball will holler for five minutes and then it will be over. There are haves and there are have-nots. This isn’t socialism. If you wanna sign him – sign him.

George – Hamels and Werth are two completely different situations. Werth was a nice bit player to complement the rest of the lineup. Hamels is/will be the ace of the rotation. Hamels is a dominant homegrown lefty that has the potential to be the greatest pitcher to put on a Phillies uniform. Werth would never have become the greatest at anything (and no disrespect to Jayson there at all). Also, Hamels is 3 years younger at the end of his deal. That’s a HUGE difference in the baseball world.

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