Editorial: Challenges for Patrick

Friday

Sep 26, 2008 at 12:01 AMSep 26, 2008 at 7:26 AM

Gov. Deval Patrick showed some spine this month, standing up to a special interest group that has been especially strong on Beacon Hill. He had better get used to it, because the skirmish over police details is the first of many battles over a budget Patrick will have to shrink.

Gov. Deval Patrick showed some spine this month, standing up to a special interest group that has been especially strong on Beacon Hill. He had better get used to it, because the skirmish over police details is the first of many battles over a budget Patrick will have to shrink.

Patrick's reforms in the practice of requiring expensive police details on virtually all state road construction projects won't save a great amount of money: $7 million a year, according to optimistic estimates. But the showdown carries great symbolic value. Patrick went where his predecessors feared to tread, and when the police unions pushed back by pressuring municipalities to expand a loophole that would keep the details requirement in place, Patrick doubled down. He closed the loophole entirely, as this page had recommended.

But there are more challenges ahead.

For the first half of the year, despite indications the economy was slowing, state revenues exceeded expectations. That encouraged Patrick and the Legislature to overspend, enacting a $28 billion budget fully 5.2 percent higher than the previous year.

Then the numbers started heading south. Just three months into the fiscal year, state officials say the budget may be as much as $1 billion out of balance.

Things could easily get worse from here. History has shown that when Wall Street catches a cold, the state budget sneezes. The state is over-dependent on revenue from capital gains taxes, which fluctuate with the markets. Capital gains revenue has ranged in recent years from less than $500 million in 2002 to $1.7 billion in 2006. Previous dips in the markets helped fuel state budget crises in the late '90s and again 10 years later.

There are other clouds on the horizon. A recession hurts on the revenue side, as people earn and spend less, and on the expense side, as more people qualify for state programs. Then there's Question 1 on the November ballot which, if passed, would repeal the state income tax, depriving state coffers of $12 billion.

Patrick has already told his department heads to control hiring and prepare recommendations for midyear budget cuts in executive departments. He has asked the Legislature to grant him expanded authority to make "9C" cuts in other parts of the budget, including local aid. Legislative leaders have balked, mostly because they didn't like the way Mitt Romney wielded that power when he faced a budget squeeze that turned out to be overstated.

That's fine, as long as legislators are prepared to make the needed cuts and take the heat for it, along with Patrick. But there will be heat. Already, leaders of the state's nonprofit groups, facing reduced philanthropy because of Wall Street's woes, are calling on Patrick to spare them his budget ax. Every budget item has a constituency that will be making similar pleas.

Then there are the cities and towns, already strapped for cash and heavily dependent on state aid.

Patrick's own agenda will also feel the pinch. Tight budgets have prevented him from delivering on campaign promises of property tax relief and more police. The ambitious education reform proposals unveiled early this summer may go nowhere without money to support them.

Savings on police details won't begin to cover the revenue gap. Other spending reforms are needed, notably on things like retiree health insurance benefits and loose, over-generous pension rules, and each of those will invite another clash with the unions. Like the police details, these perks have come to stand for wasteful state spending in the eyes of a cynical electorate. Only by pushing through meaningful reform can Patrick and the Legislature gain the credibility they need to manage their way out of the crisis ahead.

The MetroWest Daily News

Never miss a story

Choose the plan that's right for you.
Digital access or digital and print delivery.