Re-Digesting the Chargers

Ted BartlettNov 25, 2011 4:00 PM

Happy Fat Man Friday, friends. On Sunday, the Broncos will plays the Chargers for the second time this season. What’s changed since October 9th? Well, on the surface, the answer is everything. Tim Tebow took over the Broncos offense in the second half of that game, with his team trailing 23-10 and looking sluggish. Tebow then rallied the team to fall just short of winning at 29-24, as a pass into the end zone on the game’s final play was nearly caught by Matt Willis in the typical Hail Mary crowd. On that day, the Chargers improved to 4-1, and the Broncos fell to 1-4.

Since then, the Broncos are 4-1 on the strength of an improved defense and running game, as well as some timely plays by Tebow. The Chargers are 0-5 in that same period and have gotten really banged up in the process. I can’t see any way that their season isn’t over, in terms of playoff meaning, at this point.

We’re going to leverage the article I wrote six weeks ago, because the schemes haven’t changed. We’ll focus on what has changed, which is mostly personnel, and we’ll go from there.

Game Watched: Week 11 vs. Bears

Chargers Defense

a. San Diego has been beaten in coverage a lot lately, and their run defense has slipped a bit too. Their offense has been putting them in tough situations at times, and it has been showing, as they’ve gotten worn down late in games. Here is the participation data, updated for the whole season to date:

Pos

#

Name

Snaps

% of Total

DL

92

Vaughn Martin

415

66%

DL

71

Antonio Garay

338

54%

DL

94

Corey Liuget

281

45%

DL

76

Cam Thomas

195

31%

DL

74

Jacques Cesaire

166

26%

DL

90

Tommie Harris

156

25%

DL

91

Ogemdi Nwagbuo

71

11%

DL

93

Luis Castillo

31

5%

LB

51

Takeo Spikes

583

93%

LB

99

Travis LaBoy

498

79%

LB

56

Donald Butler

450

72%

LB

95

Shaun Phillips

323

51%

LB

98

Antwan Barnes

292

46%

LB

58

Na'il Diggs

200

32%

LB

52

Larry English

76

12%

LB

49

Darryl Gamble

36

6%

LB

91

Everette Brown

21

3%

LB

54

Stephen Cooper

11

2%

DB

31

Eric Weddle

625

100%

DB

23

Quentin Jammer

510

81%

DB

20

Antoine Cason

505

80%

DB

28

Steve Gregory

438

70%

DB

33

Dante Hughes

251

40%

DB

38

Marcus Gilchrist

217

35%

DB

27

Paul Oliver

116

18%

DB

31

Bob Sanders

102

16%

Average DL

2.63

Average LB

3.96

Average DB

4.40

Total Defensive Snaps

628

As you see, the substitution pattern is virtually unchanged. This team doesn’t use a lot of sub packages, and it’s clear that they’d prefer to play big up front whenever possible.

b. I think that the defensive line group for the Chargers has fallen off lately. NT Antonio Garay has been banged up and playing limited snaps, but as I watched the Bears game, and as I also saw the boys from Whale’s Vagina against Oakland the week before, I really noticed reduced productivity. The Chargers are expected to get long-time DE starter Jacques Cesaire back from injury this week, so maybe that will help them.

c. None of the Chargers LBs are particularly good in coverage. They want to play four of them all the time, so it’s very important that you make them cover. Teams have been hurting them with TEs and RBs in the passing game lately.

d. This LB group is also not particularly fast in pursuit. This has been their rush defense totals in the five-game losing streak:

Opponent

Attempts

Yards

YPC

TD

Jets

31

162

5.23

0

Chiefs

32

94

2.94

1

Packers

28

136

4.86

0

Raiders

41

191

4.66

1

Bears

32

92

2.88

2

Total

164

675

4.12

4

The Bears and Chiefs have pretty bad offensive lines, (and the Chiefs have a deep backup starting at RB), and it shows in their totals. The Raiders were without Darren McFadden, and the Packers got 52 yards on 8 carries from Aaron Rodgers. In any case, teams with good lines have been setting the edge on the Chargers and running the ball outside on them. They’re tough inside, but not as tough as they’ve been in past years.

e. The secondary is as I described it six weeks ago. You have to watch out for Antoine Cason jumping a route because he has excellent ball skills, but beyond that there will be average coverage. Eric Weddle continues to look really good, and I saw him really diagnose a couple of screens quickly against Chicago and make big plays on them. The Chargers are about 75% man-to-man against 25% zone coverage.

As you see below, not much has changed in how the Chargers rush the passer. They’re a four-man rush team, and there’s almost no zone-blitzing.

Pos

#

Name

Rush

Coverage

% Rush

% Coverage

DL

92

Vaughn Martin

210

1

99.5%

0.5%

DL

71

Antonio Garay

162

0

100.0%

0.0%

DL

94

Corey Liuget

116

0

100.0%

0.0%

DL

76

Cam Thomas

92

0

100.0%

0.0%

DL

74

Jacques Cesaire

98

0

100.0%

0.0%

DL

90

Tommie Harris

98

0

100.0%

0.0%

DL

91

Ogemdi Nwagbuo

34

0

100.0%

0.0%

DL

93

Luis Castillo

12

0

100.0%

0.0%

LB

51

Takeo Spikes

31

277

10.1%

89.9%

LB

99

Travis LaBoy

149

89

62.6%

37.4%

LB

56

Donald Butler

16

183

8.0%

92.0%

LB

95

Shaun Phillips

133

43

75.6%

24.4%

LB

98

Antwan Barnes

159

16

90.9%

9.1%

LB

58

Na'il Diggs

10

114

8.1%

91.9%

LB

52

Larry English

36

13

73.5%

26.5%

LB

49

Darryl Gamble

18

4

81.8%

18.2%

LB

91

Everette Brown

7

0

100.0%

0.0%

LB

54

Stephen Cooper

0

6

0.0%

100.0%

DB

31

Eric Weddle

11

315

3.4%

96.6%

DB

23

Quentin Jammer

1

262

0.4%

99.6%

DB

20

Antoine Cason

1

262

0.4%

99.6%

DB

28

Steve Gregory

5

236

2.1%

97.9%

DB

33

Dante Hughes

7

169

4.0%

96.0%

DB

38

Marcus Gilchrist

0

125

0.0%

100.0%

DB

27

Paul Oliver

1

59

1.7%

98.3%

DB

31

Bob Sanders

1

48

2.0%

98.0%

Average DL

2.49

0.00

99.9%

0.1%

Average LB

1.69

2.26

42.9%

57.1%

Average DB

0.08

4.47

1.8%

98.2%

Total

4.27

6.73

Chargers Offense

a. The scheme is the same, and the skill position players mostly are too. The big difference is on the offensive line. Compare the starting lineups from October 9th and last week’s game vs. the Bears, to what the injury report tells us we may see Sunday:

POS

9-Oct

20-Nov

27-Nov

LT

Marcus McNeill

Brandyn Dombrowski

Brandyn Dombrowski

LG

Kris Dielman

Scott Mruczkowski

Tony Moll

C

Nick Hardwick

Nick Hardwick

Nick Hardwick

RG

Louis Vasquez

Steve Schlling

Steve Schlling

RT

Jeromey Clary

Jeromey Clary

Jeromey Clary

Dielman and Mruczkowski are already on IR, and McNeill, Vasquez, and Tyronne Green haven’t participated in practice this week. The October 9th group was San Diego’s planned starting group for the season, and it’s just gotten decimated lately by injuries.

b. The Chargers have been bad in protection all season, but they’re much worse when Dombrowski plays than they are with the average McNeill. Everybody has been pondering what’s wrong with QB Philip Rivers this season, and the answer is primarily a lack of protection. I expect them to really try to slow down the Denver pass rush Sunday, as they did against the Bears. The Bears largely cooperated, but I doubt that the Broncos will want to do that. Here is the protection help data from among the skill position players. Again, not much change in overall strategy:

Pos

#

Name

Protection

Pattern

Snaps

% of Total

WR

83

Vincent Jackson

0

407

407

93%

WR

80

Malcom Floyd

0

206

206

47%

WR

12

Patrick Crayton

2

175

177

40%

WR

86

Vincent Brown

0

170

170

39%

WR

13

Bryan Walters

0

59

59

13%

WR

15

Richard Goodman

0

30

30

6%

TE

81

Randy McMichael

102

167

269

61%

TE

85

Antonio Gates

2

300

302

69%

TE

82

Kory Sperry

7

46

53

12%

TE

69

Tyronne Green

2

0

2

0%

RB

24

Ryan Mathews

23

166

189

43%

RB

35

Mike Tolbert

38

193

231

53%

RB

22

Jacob Hester

19

68

87

20%

RB

44

Curtis Brinkley

3

10

13

3%

Average WR

0.00

2.38

2.39

Average TE

0.26

1.17

1.43

Average RB

0.19

1.00

1.18

Total

0.45

4.55

5.00

Pass Plays

439

c. While we're at it, here's an update to offensive participation:

Pos

#

Name

Snaps

% of Total

WR

83

Vincent Jackson

634

89%

WR

80

Malcom Floyd

295

41%

WR

12

Patrick Crayton

258

36%

WR

86

Vincent Brown

222

31%

WR

13

Bryan Walters

77

11%

WR

15

Richard Goodman

37

8%

TE

81

Randy McMichael

492

69%

TE

85

Antonio Gates

448

63%

TE

82

Kory Sperry

150

21%

TE

69

Tyronne Green

14

2%

RB

24

Ryan Mathews

344

48%

RB

35

Mike Tolbert

324

46%

RB

22

Jacob Hester

234

33%

RB

44

Curtis Brinkley

26

4%

Average WR

2.14

Average TE

1.55

Average RB

1.31

Offensive Snaps

711

As you see, the Chargers are a predominantly 12 or 21 personnel team, and they rarely use a third WR. Norv is old school, because he's convinced that what he's doing works.

Beating the Chargers Defense

a. The zone read and dive option game is open for business against San Diego, and I really like the shovel option against them too. They’re not much of a pursuit team, and they’d really like to just line up and plug the B gap by being physical. The Broncos need to make the Chargers think on defense and force them to react to what they’re seeing.

b. I like a lot of three- and four-WR sets against San Diego, because they really don’t want to play small. The Broncos need to force them to substitute CBs for a DL and a LB at times, and if the Chargers won’t, it’s incumbent upon Tim Tebow to make them pay by hitting passes to a WR being covered by a LB.

Last week, the name of the game was making the Jets play big because they wanted to play small. New York answered that challenge pretty well, but still lost. The Broncos are uniquely able to mess with defenses and dictate their personnel groupings, because the presence of Tebow turns pass personnel into run personnel, depending on what he does on the play. It’s cool to make a defense put two extra CBs on the field and then ask them to tackle Tebow, who probably weighs 260 pounds, rather than the 236 he’s listed at. We saw Mr. Darrelle Revis shrink from that challenge, and I can’t think of many CBs who’d want that collision.

c. I want Tebow ready to scramble in this game, because it’s very effective against the Chargers, with their slow-ish LBs and how much man coverage they play. Tebow, Rodgers, Matt Cassel, and Mark Sanchez have all found success running against San Diego recently. Strangely, Carson Palmer didn’t.

d. I think that this is the week where the backside pass option gets added to the zone read series. It’s the next step, and it’s the difference between what the Broncos are doing and the “Wildcat.” Have you noticed how many people have compared the Broncos' success to what Miami did in 2008, and then said, well defenses figured that out, so they’ll figure this out too?

That’s stupid because the problem with the “Wildcat” is that teams never had to really fear the pass, so they were able to play 10 in the box and blitz the bejesus out of it. It started out as a math advantage for the offense and became one for the defense, in other words. The difference here is that Tebow can throw the ball a lot more effectively than a guy like Ronnie Brown can, people’s statements that he “can’t throw” notwithstanding.

Check out this play design:

This is something Tebow did a lot in college that we haven’t seen yet. The Z comes off at half speed like he’s looking to block, and then takes off across the field. The Y starts left and blocks, and then releases out to the right flat. Tebow plays this like a normal zone read, but knows he isn’t handing off. When he pulls the ball out and moves right, he’s reading the high-low progression with the Z and the Y, and if neither is there (unlikely), he can still run the ball himself.

This is a good play for getting some yards right now, but the even bigger benefit of it is that it causes the backside defenders to hesitate even more than they already are from this action. It especially gives the single-high safety pause, so the next time the action is run, the RB is going to most probably see less traffic on the play side.

As much as people want there to be an answer to stopping the zone read series, there isn’t one, if every possible play from it can be executed. The field is simply stretched too far, and the defenders are being asked to read too much. The Broncos need to keep working to get to that point, because as long as Tebow is the Broncos QB, this series is open for business.

e. It’s time to let Tebow try to throw for a 3rd-and-8 from the pocket. Sink or swim, the offense has to be able to do that as it grows into a higher-functioning unit. Give the guy some help with a pattern concept that gets a player open against the coverage being played, and give him some protection, and let’s see if he can hit the throw.

Stopping the Chargers Offense

a. This is still a difficult task, but it’s easier than it was six weeks ago with the injuries up front and also if Malcom Floyd doesn’t play. The first thing you need to do is account for the Chargers RBs. It’s absolutely crucial that you know where they are, and that you have a defender following them. Check out the following pre-snap diagram:

This is simple 2-Man under, like the Broncos run frequently. The Chargers are in 12 personnel and the Y is Antonio Gates, while the TE is Randy McMichael. The Broncos are going to be in base most of the time here, and Von Miller will be the Sam LB. The two WRs on the left are Vincent Jackson and somebody else, maybe Vincent Brown. The RB can either be Ryan Mathews or Mike Tolbert. The yellow lines indicate man coverage, and the two safeties are going to be in deep halves. This is what the Chargers want to do:

McMichael’s route is going to cause a traffic jam for the MLB, and he’s not going to be able to get through it to prevent the RB from catching a swing pass and picking up a bunch of yards. The Chargers throw the ball to their RBs more effectively than any team in the NFL.

So how do you stop this? I would give Miller and either Joe Mays or Wesley Woodyard (whoever is at MLB) an auto-check to zone up the short area against this shotgun twins look. That means that Miller jumps outside to guard the flat, and the Mike LB has the inside route from the TE, knowing he has over-the-top help. Neither throw is there, and Rivers is going to probably be in some trouble in the pocket, because this was a half-field read for him.

Rivers almost never throws this swing action from under center, because the timing doesn’t work correctly, so the shotgun with the open edge is the key to diagnose.

b. If you’re taking away the swing pass, the other way the Chargers throw short is with the screen. Somebody has to be in man coverage on a RB, even if he initially looks like he’s blocking. The Chargers like to invite the green-dog and then throw the screen, and they have a few dozen variations on the play. Cover the back, and later for the green-dog. The offensive linemen are going to release downfield after three seconds, and Rivers is going to have to throw the ball into the ground.

c. Finally, the Broncos will need to contain the deep passing game. Rivers and Jackson did really well hitting it on the Bears, and the safeties will have to be especially cognizant of Jackson downfield. Floyd possibly not playing would help here, because he was the one who beat the Broncos before halftime six weeks ago.

d. Through all of this, pressure is paramount; it's what has been causing Rivers to turn the ball over and the Chargers to lose games. The Chargers can’t protect Rivers, and they know it, so they’re going to try to limit their need to do so. They’ll stick to their screens and swing passes and try to throw deep off of play action. The Broncos need to be in Rivers’ face, and they need to watch for these three specific things.

The Chargers have homefield advantage, and as Doug noted, they actually managed to sell out the game. Funny how when I went on their website at 2:21 PM on Friday, this is what I saw:

That’s all you need to know. The Chargers have craptastic fans and not much of a homefield advantage, and I think the Broncos are going to win this game. The Chargers have struggled to contain Tebow now twice, and I think that’s likely to continue. With the way the Broncos defense is playing, I’m feeling pretty good about getting to 6-5 and putting the final shovelful of dirt on the Bolts’ playoff chances.

1. I’m not in the arguing business, I’m in the saying what I think business.
2. I get my information from my eyes.

Ted, You are the best I have ever read at breaking a game down. I was laughing during the KC game because of your dead on analysis. What is your football background? Did you coach or play any college ball? Just curious. Thanks again, and I&#8217ll continue to forward this site to all the people I know that want and need real knowledge.

Posted by prospector1 on 2011-11-26 17:31:07

Christmas in November for me! I love this stuff. You and Doc have really helped me enjoy the game of football on a much deeper level.

I had a dream&#8230er&#8230.nightmare last night that the halftime score would be 14-13 bolts. In my dream, I wasn&#8217t able to watch the second half. It was OK, because I finally had faith in Tebow. But when I turned on NFLN after the game to get the score, the chargers had won 54-13. I awoke in a cold sweat!

I really hope we can keep it close. I&#8217d LOVE to see some more passing, as everyone would. But I don&#8217t want this game to be the one that proves Tebow shouldn&#8217t be throwing because he tries and fails. I&#8217m with you, Ted&#8230 I hope the game plan is to continue to do what is working, particularly because what we do best is what the bolts defense does poorly. But a few new wrinkles as you discussed above would be welcome. Hopefully this week that 3rd quarter deep pass to Decker actually hits. That is a thing of beauty when it happens.

Seems like we have a lot of talent in the TE department (and a lot more of them than I&#8217m used to). Fells and Rosario have each made game-saving catches this season. I&#8217d like to see more of that earlier, to work on Tebow&#8217s release speed.

Finally, I&#8217m expecting Demaryius Thomas to have a break out game here soon. I want to punish the chargers for years of abuse and arrogance, and I wanna hang a 40 burger on them. I&#8217m not sure this is the right iteration of the Broncos to be able to do it, but there&#8217s always a chance!

Thanks for the insight&#8230. GO BRONCOS!

Posted by HarvJNep2n on 2011-11-26 17:11:54

Big or small, it will make little difference because their LB&#8217s are not that fast, and their DL is sucking bugs out of the air by the 3rd Qtr from chasing Tebow.

I do hope we see more improvement from our passing game just to drive the MSM crazy.

Either way, another victory WILL drive the media nuts.

Posted by igorbstrange on 2011-11-26 04:21:03

Excellent as always, Ted.

My fear is we will stay in 12 personnel and allow them to play big. I think we can still be successful, but I think you&#8217re right in hoping to get them to play with their less talented players on D.

On the play you diagramed (Backside pass option), would you flip it so that when Tebow runs left he&#8217s throwing on the run more comfortably vs across his body? I know he threw those is college (across his body), but it seems he throws best going to his left.

I may not know the nuances of the game, but in another case I forget which game it was, but when the play called for Tebow under center and a quick pass to the sideline to Willis, they had tebow throw to his left. It seemed like it took him a long time to throw it (yes, yes his throwing motion isn&#8217t perfect - I get it), but I assume it looked that way b/c he had to set up and turn his body to make the throw. Am I wrong in thinking they should have called for it be thrown to his right since he can take the snap and just start his throwing motion w/o turning around in order to make the throw quicker? Or is the fear of the DE collapsing raise the possibility of trouble (tipped pass or worse) since his throwing motion would have the ball&#8217s trajectory closer to the line of scrimmage? juts wondering if I&#8217m over-thinking it.

We have been extremely fortunate with our injuries (knock on wood) and SD is finally feeling the decimation thanks to injuries we have dealt with for far too many yrs. Here&#8217s hoping Miller&#8217s string of puttin a hurt on QBs is extended.

I&#8217d love for Rivers to hear &#8220God Bless&#8221 if he starts talking crap again to our QB.

Posted by Orange and Blue on 2011-11-26 03:45:01

Ted,

Great job.

Love your stuff and I have learnt more from you and Doc than anyone.

Keep it coming!

Posted by Boydy2669 on 2011-11-26 02:38:44

Tebow should have ran in the second 2 pt. conversion instead of passing. The game would have been tied and then we held SD to a field goal. We would have had a better chance to win the game than being down by 5 pts. Fox said Tebow had the option to run or throw on that play and he threw. We just HAVE to beat the chargettes on Sunday, it&#8217s the biggest game of the year so far.

Hopefully the defense knocks the crap out of Rivers first series, and the run game works. It&#8217d be enjoyable for an entire 60 minutes of Denver rush-control and Rivers picking himself off the turf.

Go get &#8216em, Von Doom.

Posted by jtomasik on 2011-11-25 23:32:17

It would really be nice to see that backside pass play get going.

I&#8217ve seen rivers torch the Broncos too many times not to brace myself for it. Hopefully the regression of the Chargers protection and the improvement of the Broncos rush will make a difference.

Posted by ohiobronco on 2011-11-25 23:21:46

Ted- thanks for being the one who finally offers an explanation as to out why Philip Rivers seems &#8220off&#8221 this year- poor pass protection. Strikes me that he enjoyed playing Denver so much in the past because he had a lot of time to pick apart our secondary. But the times, they are a&#8217changin&#8217.

I also see the value in prepping for a short-yard passing attack like what Brady employs so effectively these days for the Pats. Our LB coverage on slants, screens etc is still not stellar. Stopping the Chargers section b above may proved to be a big key to the game.

The heading for this entry (re-digesting) is nauseating, especially after overeating yesterday. Otherwise great work!

Posted by Tombstone on 2011-11-25 22:52:07

Nice write-up, Ted. Thanks.

My sense about the Bolts is that they will come out throwing with many deep balls to try to get an early lead against the Broncos and then sit on it. They know that they have not been playing very good football lately.

Another point, it is logical to say that they haven&#8217t contained Tebow yet. However, in the last game, their defense game planned for Orton - and they took him out of his game causing him to consistently throw behind his receivers. They had not game planned for Tebow. In their first meeting last year, they had not seen this guy before.

So the point that I am making is that Sunday their D will game plan for Tebow - and I think they will do a pretty good job - especially if Shaun Phillips is playing - of defending/containing him. If they get him rattled - may be a tough day for TT.