Notes: The break below the weekly opening range low on the 23rd after making fresh monthly highs immediately shifted our focus lower on the Kiwi in the near-term. The pair has now failed to breach above former trendline support dating back to July of 2012 for five consecutive days with daily RSI divergence and a turnover in the oscillator suggesting an interim high may be in place.

The decline has now completed a 61.8% extension off the monthly highs and 30min RSI divergence suggests a bounce higher in the near-term should offer more favorable short entries. We will continue to eye momentum triggers for entry while noting that a topside break of the descending channel formation off the monthly highs would likely be a larger interruption in this particular setup. Note that we have been playing Kiwi weakness by way of the EUR/NZD setup highlighted in Tuesday’s report, which looks much cleaner from a technical standpoint. Although a similar setup can be observed on the AUDUSD, the magnitude of the shift in momentum continues to favor the Kiwi for now until Aussie price action offers further clarity on the reversal off key technical resistance at 9714/40.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.