His conclusion: This state would have lots more auto-related jobs by now -- about 25 percent more -- but paychecks would be roughly 20 percent lower.

The Grand Valley State University economics professor had another finding: The gap is narrowing between Michigan's historically high automotive union wages and the South's historically low nonunion wages.

What happens when there is no gap? What happens when an automaker, foreign or domestic, can hire a Michigan worker for the same pay as one in Alabama or Georgia?

Here is one possibility: The angry, divisive battle over whether to adopt a right-to-work law could fade into irrelevancy.

Courtesy PhotoStudy author Hari Singh

One favored union argument against the law -- that the standard of living is higher in a non-right-to-work states -- would be undercut if wages are no higher than elsewhere.

Likewise, the argument for right-to-work would be weakened because the loudest advocates, business owners, couldn't expect a payoff in cheaper labor.

Labor in either case would be equally expensive or cheap depending on your vantage point.

Of course, there's really no danger of that happening right now. Michigan has lost tens of thousands of auto jobs in the recession, but those who remain on the job are still paid better than almost any other state.

Texas with its Toyota truck plant and suppliers came the closest, averaging $69,000 last year. Pay in Georgia with its new Kia plant hit $60,100. Alabama and South Carolina averaged $56,500. Tennessee and South Carolina came in around $55,000.

Michigan may be ahead, but as Singh said, the state's lead is shrinking.

While average auto pay in the Wolverine state increased 18 percent from 2002 to 2009, the growth was nearly twice that in some southern states. Texas and South Carolina climbed more than 30 percent and 35 percent in Georgia.

Singh predicts the gap will keep shrinking as southern workers get more experienced and the pressure builds on the United Auto Workers to moderate wage demands.

Consider that many new hires at General Motors, Ford and Chrysler now start at $14 an hour -- half the pay of other workers there. Delphi's new hires will start closer to $12.50.

This erosion is happening in many places.

In Indiana -- where the debate also rages over whether it should become a right to work state -- UAW members at General Motors' Indianapolis stamping plant are being urged to take a cut from $29 an hour to $15.50 before a new owner agrees to take over the plant. Otherwise it is scheduled to be shut down.

The outcome was not clear by week's end. But if those workers stay on the job, their pay will be slashed not by a right-to-work law but by a new economy that exacts a harsh penalty on any company that does not hold down costs.

This global competition eventually will reduce the right-to-work debate to a smaller role in any state's strategy for jobs, maybe even make the issue irrelevant.