Any candidate could win GOP nomination

February 09, 2012

If I were a betting man, I would make a bet (but less than $10,000) that Mitt Romney will be nominated. But it ain't over till it's over. To date, only a tiny fraction of the delegates have been selected. Winning delegates is what the nominating contest is all about, not the "momentum" nonsense that talking heads love to blather about.

It's mathematically possible that Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum or even Ron Paul could be nominated. It's unlikely that anyone else will throw their hat in the ring because it's too late to get on the ballot in many states.

A majority of likely voters in Republican primaries would rather see someone else nominated — almost anyone else. And many of Romney's supporters only do so because they think he has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama. But his pandering to the tea party folks, his many gaffes (such as "I like being able to fire people …" and "I'm not concerned about the very poor") and the constant attacks from the other contenders have damaged his chances of being elected, if nominated.

A poll announced Monday showed that voters, when asked who understands the situation you're in and who is more concerned about helping you, chose Obama over Romney. Much of Romney's present support could quickly evaporate if it doesn't look like he can beat Obama. Some will be impressed by Santorum's win in Colorado, even though only 2 percent of those eligible voted.

A lot can still happen between now and the convention that could change the outcome. But at the moment, a Romney-Santorum ticket seems very possible — a result the Obama campaign would welcome.