and you may have a swears where you have sunni/shiaa conflict in lebanon, in syria and in iraq, stretching from baghdad to beirut. and if you have these many militia groups fighting along sectarian lines in pockets all over the place, it will be very dangerous to cover. >> richard engel, you are so capable of covering this, more than almost anybody, it makes me worry about the prospect of cover these things up close. but more than anything, i'm grateful you're back. welcome back. >> thanks. >> now you have to stay here and become a dentist, a doctor. all right, that will do it for us tonight. thanks for being with us. have a grade holiday. democrats won't seen forget the acquaintances they made in 2012 that propelled president obama to four more years, but

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what's in store for a second term and what will the president be able to accomplish before leaving the white house? recent history shows some highs and lows for second-term presidents what can president obama learn about the mistakes and big breaks that shaped the country for the last 30 years? and a who's who to keep your eyes on for the coming year and years. will new names emerge as leading their parties or will old ones still drive the early jockeying for the next presidential fight. happy holidays and hello from washington. this is a special year-end edition of "the daily rundown." all this hour we will look at what lessons we got from 2012, what they'll mean for 2013, how power could shift in 2014, and who is taking the long, hard look at a bid for 2016. maybe we'll slip in something about 2015 for kicks.

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how did president obama, weighed down by a jobless rate, higher than any incumbent seeking reelection since fdr win 332 electoral votes, sweep 8 of the 9 battleground states and have his party pick up senate seats to get to 55? as the republican party picks up the pieces and looks ahead to 2016, here are four lessons that 2016 hopefuls from both parties might want to keep in mind. lesson one, don't define yourself. your opponent will do it for you. ads and timing matter. romney let the president's early attacks on his personal wealth and business background go largely unanswered. romney's campaign argued they had to choose how to spend at the time what was limited funds and adds about what romney would do about president tested better, they claim, than bio spots or defenses of his personal record. in the end, obama beat romney by

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ten points on the question of which candidate is more like you? romney, the first republican nominee in the history of our nbc/"wall street journal" poll go into his convention with his personal rating under water, ended his campaign with a painful number, just 47% of voteri ins viewing him positive. the obama campaign bought ads early and were careful about where to buy the ads. in the last week the obama campaign paid $550 for a single ad in raleigh, north carolina. the romney campaign had to shell out $2,665 for the same spot. why? the obama campaign purchased it way ahead of time. romney bought it the week of. lesson two, the republican brand needs a hard look. the gop's favorable rating has been under water for two years.

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if you take that out, it's been nearly five years. just 36% of registered voters said they had a positive view of the republican party, 43% held a negative view. the democratic party was in positive territory just barely at 42% 40%. just 20 republican primary bids put harsh republican rhetoric on immigration. so now as the party debates whether to modernize or moderate, they have to save their image, that leads to lesson three, demographics are destiny. romney won a higher percentage of the white vote since any candidate since ronald reagan in 1984. he won by 20 point with whites,

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he won with women, 56% to 42%. but he lost the election, why? as the obama campaign predicted, the white portion of the electoral dropped. the president carried nearly 8 in 10 non-white voters including 71% of latinos, 73% of asian voters, a whopping 93% of black voters. it remains a real question whether the democratic nominee no 2016 will be able to hold the coalition closer. finally, lesson four. don't ignore the data. the polls matter, more of them are right than wrong. though public polling in the swing states showed the president ahead, the romney campaign sincerely believed until election day that romney would win. why? romney's pollsters assumed the electoral would be wider and older than it turned out to be.

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the enthusiasm numbers did favor them, but they didn't have enough voters. more than any cycle in recent memory, many republicans bought into an alternative poling universe. in 2016, much of the emphases in both parties will be to match and improve on the obama campaign's data-driven technological juggernaut. at the same time the lesson of 2012 the republican bubble is don't ignore the data that is available to anyone with a computer. second bucket, it's known as the second-term curse. american presidents successfully win re-election only to have a rough ride in years five through eight. sometimes it's souring relations with congress, personnel problems, unforeseen external events and scandal. there is always an issue for second-term presidents. in his first post-election news

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conference, the president himself acknowledged that his predecessors had their versions of second-term struggles. >> i don't presume that because i won an election that everybody suddenly agrees with me on everything. i'm more than familiar with the literature about presidential overreach in second terms. >> but familiarity doesn't always do the trick. here is president clinton after his re-election in 1996. >> in modern times, second terms for presidents have been either disappointing or disastrous. i'm wondering if you've drawn any lessons on why that's so? >> the things that derail a second term are basically three. one is some external event intervenes and the president can't fulfill his dreams or hopes for his agenda sometimes the president thinks he has more of a mandate than he does and tries to do too much. the third is sometimes the president just runs out of steam.

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>> in november of 1972, after two weeks of reflection at camp david, president richard nixon told reporters my study of elections in this country are that second terms almost inevitably are downhill. yes, richard nixon said that in '72. after a string of legislative successes in his first term and after narrowly winning a second term as president, president bush claimed a mandate. >> when you win, there is a -- a feeling that the people have spoken and embraced your point of view. that's what i intend to tell the congress. >> 16 months later, bush made this stark admission to the press corps. >> just after the 2004 election, you seemed to proclaim an balance of political capital, a strong mandate. would you make that qulam today that you still have that? >> i would say i'm spending that capital on the war.

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>> not only did plummeting support for the iraq war erode bush's ability to drive his second-term agenda but he overreached with the social security privatization push. his efforts on immigration reform then collapsed under the weight of the other issues. the administration bundled the response to hurricane katrina and relations to congress soured, that when harriett myers was nominated to the supreme court, even republicans didn't join in. in 2008 before he left office, his approval rating sunk to 27%. a real question whether president obama will be able to forge a closer working relationship with congress this time around. then there's the second-term scandal. clinton's second term dominated, basically ended after a year because the lewinsky scandal began. congressional impeachment followed which completely

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derailed any agenda he hoped to push in that second four years. >> i have to go back to work on my state of the union speech. and i worked on it until pretty late last night. but i want to say one thing to the american people, i wanted you to listen to me. i'm going say this again. i did not have sexual relations with that woman. ms. lewinsky. >> though ronald reagan pushed through a tax overhaul in his second term he also became embroiled in the iran-contra affair. >> a few months ago i told the american people i did not trade arms for hostages. my heart and my best intentions still tell me that's true, but the facts and the evidence tell me it is not. >> there is a bright side, if lincoln had not had a second term he would not have won the civil war. reagan's place in history was cemented by the beginnings of the end of the cold war, and

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without a second term, fdr would be known as the president who didn't end the great depression. still second terms don't last four years. they're shorter than that. how long will obama have? is he aware that a second term domestically only lasts about a year to 18 months? political junkies know we don't have to wait until 2016 or 2014 for our next fix. next year we have blockbuster races for governor in two big states, virginia and new jersey. in virginia, it's the clintons versus the tea party. as former democratic national committee chairman and clinton loyalist terry mcauliffe takes on couchinelli, who is a tea party favorite. mcauliffe last time around lost badly when he tried for governor. the question this time is which

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supposedly flawed candidate will win this race. since 1976, the party that wins the presidency loses the state's gubernatorial election next year. it's never wavered. 2001 after president bush was elected, mark warner defeated mark earley. in 2005 after bush's re-election, tim cain beat jerry kilgore by six points. and then last year, mb donal beat deeds. moving on to new jersey, speaking of the terry mcauliffe campai campaign, if you're thinking of working on hillary clinton's campaign, you're supposed to send your resume to mcauliffe.

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i'm not joking about that. in new jersey, chris christie's run for a second term and presidential ambitions will be shaped on how he manages the hurricane sandy effort. will he make a move towards a presidential bid? watch the garden state governor's race for clues. people close to christie believe the biggest mistake mitt romney made was not seeking a second term in massachusetts. they believe their best shot is winning the election in 2013. joining thus hour, stephanie cutter, kevin madden from their respective campaigns, obama and romney, they'll be here next. we made a list. we checked it twice. now we're going beyond hillary

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and jeb. we'll have the daily rundown's politicians to watch in the new year. you're watching a special edition of "the daily rundown." i'm the messenger, by the way. what's your name? joanne. with the hundreds that i save with progressive on my car insurance, this tree is on me. no way. way. this tree is on me. really?! yes. aah! let me just trim it up a little bit for you. [ buzzing ] thank you. saving's greetings. you guys are gonna get this tree right here? are you sure that's the one? i'll tie it to the roof for you. make savings a new holiday tradition. ♪ [ male announcer ] it started long ago. the joy of giving something everything you've got. it takes passion. and it's not letting up anytime soon. at unitedhealthcare insurance company, we understand that commitment. and always have. so does aarp, an organization serving the needs

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call it "the daily rundown's" dirty dozen. some of them are household names, the rest we expect will be pretty soon. here is the list i threw out there on the democratic side, senator biden, hillary clinton, senator bennett, senator brown, elizabeth warren, and king. we have governor nicky haley, hark corubio, paul ryan, pence,

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jeb bush and jim demint. joining >> stewe ask all of you, first all hello. >> hello. >> happy new year. we ask all of you to pick. i threw out my dozen. i asked you to pick two you will keep an extra eye on. we continue do the 2016 conversation now, but we'll do it in a few minutes. >> of my dozen which two jumped out to you. >> i'm a little nerdy, so i picked michael bennett, the colorado senator, because he's the new head of the democratic senatorial campaign committee, so he's tasked with trying to again to keep a democratic

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senate majority. >> he wants to be senate majority leader some day. >> they asked him two years ago. he said no he said yes this time. >> you also put mike pence up there. why mike pence? >> he spent time in congress, now the governor of indiana a guy who we underrate in terms of his influence. we've seen in places like ohio, florida, wisconsin, how governors can have influence on the conversation. pence is a conservative who is a believer. >> all right. perry? you picked two governors. >> jerry brown, really important. first time ever, since 1933, california the super majority, two-thirds of the members of the house and senate are democrats. so jerry brown and the democrats can do whatever they want. we have one party government in the biggest state of the country. >> how does he use it? >> how does he use it. the liberal panacea we'll see

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for the first time. and you went with a conservative potential rising star out in south carolina who is struggling. >> nick kki haley is struggling her state but at the same time she is a big national figure. i'm curious to see what she does going forward. >> all right, stephanie, your picks were -- one was predictable. one was unpredictable. >> i picked elizabeth warren who is my homestate new senator. she has senator kennedy's seat. i believe she is the most high-profile freshman senator. >> without a doubt. probably since hillary clinton. >> i think you're right. i think she's coming in the same way, keeping her head down. looking for people to work with reach across the aisle, moderating. >> is this a stepping stone for her? >> i don't know. there are great things she can

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accomplish there. it's rumored she could be on the senate banking committee. a consumer watchdog. this will be interesting to watch. >> she will butt heads with some democrats. and your other pick? >> paul ryan. as a democrat, somebody i've been watching for a long time. mitt romney's running mate. i think he came out of this race with a good reputation. he -- he has a lot of opportunity this year. he's known as a reformer in the party. the republican party is doing introspection of what they need to do to address the changing demographics in the country. he has a chance to step up. >> how does he do it in the house? >> he's a leader in the house. known as being ideological. >> kevin, you picked, you have the big two. >> marco rubio is one of the people i picked. people are looking for new, diverse voices inside the republican party. whether he likes it or not,

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marco rubio will become a national figure in that regard and be emblematic of their abilities to reach out to newer audiences. and looking for people who will represent the future of the party. many conservatives will use rubio as vessel for what they believe is rebuilding the party. >> his first tests getting immigration over the finish line. how does he do it, make it happen, navigate it -- >> and not get pigeon holed as the hispanic republican. >> and hillary clinton what does she do? >> hillary clinton whether she likes it or not as well, is like this clinton industrial news complex. everything she does sparks speculation, sparks all of these incredible obsessing over whether it's a positioning for this year, positioning for another year. positioning against somebody. so i think that's just somebody

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that will happen. and i think a lot of people will look at whether or not -- what her preparations look like, whether or not she can inherent the obama success. >> so you guys stuck me with the four that none of you picked. joe biden, the guy has to figure out how to navigate the clinton industrial news complex. angus king, the independent, can he actually be an independent? jeb bush who may be the transitional leader of the republican party, whether he likes it or not, and jim demint. do you buy ceo of the conservative movement? >> it's very hard for jim demint to go in -- it's in many ways like this aol/time warner merger. >> harder than you think? >> makes sense on paper, but will he be able to overkocome t constitutional challenges. >> we'll have more of this, talking 2016 after this. more from the gaggle coming up, plus the six-year itch.

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it's a bedrock of conventional wisdom, or is it just a made-up thing? second-term presidents supposedly struggling in his second midterm s it real or a coincidence? first who was the first president and who was the most recent president to officially start a term on a sunday? the answer and more coming up on "the daily rundown." ♪ [ woman ] too weak. wears off. been there. tried that. ladybug body milk? no thanks. [ female announcer ] stop searching and start repairing. eucerin professional repair moisturizes while actually repairing very dry skin. it's so powerful you can skip a day... but light enough you won't want to. dermatologist recommended eucerin. the end of trial and error has arrived. try a free sample at eucerinus.com.

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. as we get closer to the next midterm elections you will likely hear more about the so-called six-year itch. it's the theory that the party controlling the white house loses big in the second midterm. today we are diving into whether the six-year itch is real or a coincidence that just happened a few times.

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it's a look back at history, if you will. let's show you what we're looking at. at the last five two-term presidents, truemamen, eisenhow reagan, clinton and bush. let's put up the numbers. in truman's second term, let's look here. as you can see, in that midterm in the 1950s, the house lost 20 seats, the senate six. eisenhower, house lost 48 seats. 13 for the senate. reagan's 1986 re-election, house lost five seats in the house, and eight in the senate. president clinton is the big out-liar here if you recall, because he didn't lose anything. he gained five in the house for

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his party and staying even in the senate. president bush got hammered. republicans lost 30 seats in the house, six in the senate and control of both houses were gone from the republicans. the 1998 election was the only time a two-term president saw gains. in addition two-term presidents typically have one really bad midterm and one not so bad. truman was much worse in '46 than in '50. reagan, split decision after losing big in the house and gaining a senate seat in 1982, republicans lost seven seats in '86 and control, but did better in the house. so, let's take a look at our next one. the two most recent examples of midterms, bill clinton's democrats lost 54 house senates and 8 senate seats in '94 before turning the tables in '98.

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the party said the '98 result was due in part, maybe in whole, due to the public backlash against republicans who seemed too focused on the lewinsky scandal rather than governing. president bush saw the opposite a great midterm, not so great second one. republicans grained ground under push in 2002. before losing big in 2006. what's behind the truth of this theory of the six-year itch? it seems logical that the pendulum would swing from one party to the other over the course of six years, but there are extenuating circumstances. by the time his second midterm rolled around, harry truman was four months into u.s. intervention in korea. an effort that republicans used against his party. eisenhower was struggling with the economy.

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during the 2006 midterms, the u.s. was three years into the iraq war and facing heavy sectarian violence which hurt president bush and his party what are the lessons for president obama and the democrats? i say maybe not so much. here's why. in 2010 the party lost 63 seats in the house, 6 seats in the senate. president obama called it a shellacking. there is reason to think he will do better this time around. president obama is almost guaranteed to do better in the house. hard to do worse than what he did in his first midterm. democrats have this helpful antidote, if they hold on to control of the senate, the president can declare partial victory for that. that was the importance of democrats add two senate seats, sitting at 55. republicans have to win big, winning six senate seats is big. that's what they would have to

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do to get control in 2014. the gaggle will be back right after the break. the good, the bad, and the ugly of the 2012 campaign ad season. they made us laugh, some made us cringe, but which ones made people go out and vote? you're watching a special edition of "the daily rundown."

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♪ oh beautiful for spacious skies ♪ ♪ for amber waves of grain ♪ ♪ for purple mountains' majesty above the fruited plain ♪ ♪ america america ♪ ♪ god shed his grace on thee ♪ ♪ and crown thy good >> our gaggle here was almost unanimous in naming that ad one of the most memorable and effective ads in the campaign, that's saying something in a race where nearly a billion

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dollars was spent on television advertising alone. what was interesting here, kevin and stephanie, both of you picked that ad as the most effective. and both of you on the democratic side, you both picked the most effective ad on the republican side. >> he tried. you tried. it's okay to make a change. >> so i thought that was interesting. it's almost like you're respecting the other's work. kevin, you picked "america the beautiful." >> i remember when that ad came out. it was previewed on a sunday morning. the first time i saw it was while we were on air. i remember while it's playing, that's a very good ad. i remember, it's often times that we use a candidate's words against him. i never heard them use his singing against them. >> they used it again and again and again.

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i could not take it. >> when you remember the campaign -- if you say the 2012 campaign, it's likely you will get somebody singing an off-key version of "america the beautiful." >> the big problem we had, what the obama campaign tried to use to their advantage, mitt romney is not something you can identify with. the heart of that ad was nobody watching that ad has accounts in the caymans. a lot of it was very -- seemed something that they could not identify with him. >> what was interesting, it was a negative ad with a light touch. you know, that always is the most effective. >> it was the perfect jux juxtoposition. if you believe in america, why is he investing overseas? >> let's jump to the rnc ad. you thought it was the most effective ad on the president

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and you were wondering where did it go? >> democrats consolidated. republicans consolidated. there's a small segment in the middle. many of whom voted for the president but they weren't ready to say i want another four years. >> and they liked him. >> but we didn't have their support it was a perfect message to them. it's okay to make a change. he tried. you tried. let's move forward. >> why didn't you guys use that? >> it was something that buoyed the personal likability factor, but that team felt like this was something if we were going to focus on the economy, we go out there -- i think that was a mistake. stephanie has pointed out, which is we didn't do it in a more broad and sustained way. and we only did it in precise hits here and there. >> i thought the negative ads were within bounds. where things were not within bounds all the time on the senate level. i have a little bit of a best of what i thought were some of the most negative ads of the cycle.

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>> carmona is not who he seems. he has issues with anger, ethics and women. with a history of ball brawls, altercations and road rage, a trail of unpaid debts and tax le liens. >> mitt romney made over 100 million dollars by shutting down our plant and devastated our lives. turns out that when we built that stage, it was like building my own coffin. >> debbie spent so much american money, you borrow more and more from us. your economy gets very weak. ours gets very good. we take your jobs. thank you, debbiespentitnow. >> that was the best. the sort of -- there was a hackishness to the negative ads on the senate level. >> on the presidential ones, the priority usa ones were very aggressive. >> right on the line.

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there but did a good job with a good message. they were the hardest with mitt romney out-sourcing things. they were use. in ohio. >> let's remember on the negative front, the connie mack ad, at the time bill nelson thought he couldn't lose and they buried him. they buried him. he got into a bar fight with ron gant, the former brave. >> you're an idiot college kid. >> i always say in campaigns we focus so much on the presidential, but you can only hate those who you know extremely well. it's like the pta board race. the lower down you get, where you know more of the people, the presidential race, it's like barack obama and mitt romney know each other in the vaguest sense. >> i started out in city council races, and city council races in yonkers are ten times worse. >> the hardest thing this year is breaking through. your ad that broke through

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virally was big bird. >> yes, without any money on it. >> big bird did not actually air on television? >> it did it was part of our rotation, but 5 million people went to our website to look at it. >> no offense to big bird, here is the most viral ad of 2012. >> together we can do this. we can take this country back. ♪ i am america ♪ one voice united we stand ♪ i am america >> there it is. does it get any better? >> it was a great ad, but -- >> he no desire to be president. >> or no path. >> this is totally fascinating if you're not trying ing ting serious presidential candidate. >> i'm very anti-staff staffer. >> so you're not going to be in any -- >> i'm not going to be in any tv

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ads i work for. it's good advice for other staffers. >> all right. gaggle, stick with us. we have the favorite political parlor game of 2016. when you have an open seat for the presidency, it's open season to talk about it. follow us on facebook, poke us, like us, do whatever you want to us. we'll be right back. so, this

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progressive direct and other car insurance companies? yes. but you're progressive, and they're them. yes. but they're here. yes. are you...? there? yes. no. are you them? i'm me. but those rates are for... them. so them are here. yes! you want to run through it again? no, i'm good. you got it? yes. rates for us and them -- now that's progressive. call or click today. >> after it's all over when your insurance rates go down, you'll vote for me in 2016. >> any time someone makes a trip to iowa, people speculate about what you're doing. let me be blunt. i'm not now or never will be a candidate for offensive coordinator for iowa. >> it's way too early to talk about 2016. i think i mentioned i have a warm regard for the people of

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new hampshire and iowa. >> plenty are already flirting with the 2016 run. but there's one dynasty do-over that dominates. let bring back the gaggle. i look at this and say it's bush, it's clinton, it's for all the marbles. it's the rematch. if we don't get jeb and hillary what will we do with ourselves? >> that's a good question, chuck. >> this would be -- this would be like that time when you're like what if hillary clinton ran for the senate, and what if rudy giuliani ran against? >> i think it's the only thing close to it would be kennedy/nixon. the two stars. >> titanic figures. >> from each party. >> the thing i would say, i i had it is not too farfetched to think that could happen. if hillary clinton does run, i find it hard to believe that the andrew cuomo's and martin o'malleys stay in. less clear that jeb clears out of primary.

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he's the ideological, the guy who can mash the conservatives and establishment. >> he has the best case to make. >> it's the purist versus the pragmatist. >> jeb could bridge the divide. >> stephanie, it's not clear to me that clinton is the natural heir to the obama coalition, is it to you? >> i think there is no natural heir. people want you to earn it. i think that there's no argument out there that she hasn't earned it. she has. i think she has done remarkably well as secretary of state. kevin was talking about it earlier, when she speaks, everyone in this country listens. she is a voice on so many issues. this is the year of the woman. >> it is. it's going happen. the two most popular figures we tested in our last nbc/"wall street journal" poll, both were named clinton. number three was obama bill and

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hillary, their favorable ratings higher than the president's. >> she is an overwhelming favorite. the heir, the other thing interest beiing thing about wha stephanie said, biden is not an hei heir. >> the whole joe biden thing, i think we underestimate him at our own peril. >> he is the vice president of the united states. >> he is the secret weapon out there. >> and he is very good on the -- people -- he gets charactered as this guy he makes mistakes. if you watch him in -- on the stump, he's very good at connecting. >> he is. >> you guys like him. your party -- you love to make him. you think he's a joke? >> i think he's been built into the obama organization and that is how he has flourished. i think he has a lot of people within the media that like him.

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i hate to play my media bias card, but if he were a republican he would be characterured more than he is you cannot borrow or be an heir to somebody else's organization. >> bush temporarily had it in '88. >> nowadays you have to build, manage and own your own organization. i don't see the passing of the torches. >> i agree. there is no heir. but i think joe biden is formidable. he was our secret weapon out there in ohio, wisconsin -- >> if she doesn't run, i'm not betting on andy cuomo over joe biden as vice president. >> i would. i would definitely -- >> it's the same argument for hillary clinton. she will have the money, she hat establishment and all good people around him.

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cuomo does not come into that race as formidable as hillary clinton looked in 2007. >> how do you prevent a republican primary picture that you guys had? i think a lot of you folks in romney world believe the primaries hurt mitt romney. >> i think the debates became a side show there. if you looked at the volatility of the electorate and how the numbers went up and down with debate performances, that was something that had a big effect. >> you could have a large -- >> i think the rnc can step in and take a more management role. and have an impact on a nominee, and have that nominee more viably positioned for a general election. >> fairly large field, jeb would shrink it a bit? without jeb, boy, seven, eight serious people deep. >> unlike like the '12 field, where you had kind of like rick santorum is the last guy

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standing against mitt romney? >> herman cain? >> i should have went to vegas. herman cain? you have real people, paul ryan, the vp nominee, bobby jindal, a governor of a state, marco rubio, a senator -- >> of the four embattled republican governors of florida wisconsin, michigan and ohio, whoever survives will run for president. >> i think scott walker would love to run for president. >> let me add one more point, it's hard to see a 2016 republican ticket that doesn't have a woman or minority on it in some capacity. >> i thought for sure there would be a woman on the ticket in the democratic party and there hasn't been one yet. we asked who was the first president and the most recent president to officially start a term on a sunday which messes up inauguration plans in washington, the answers are

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james monroe and ronald reagan. the first time was in 1821, and the most recent in 1985. president obama's second inaugural will fall on a sunday which means he will take an oath and we'll do it all for the public the next day. if you have a trivia question for us, e-mail it to us. we'll be right back with predictions and plugs from our gaggle. apologies to mr. mclaughlin. try running four.ning a restaurant is hard, fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase.

let's bring back the gaggle for some final thoughts here. if i pose this question to you, kevin, a year from now in 2013, we will say 2013 was about what in washington? >> the republican party will trying to be modernize their message. they are trying to energize their base and get things done in washington.

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looking at two big issues. the tax reform, general disgroedi disagreeme disagreement there. >> where they agree, and immigration reform. >> stephanie, let me put it a slightly different way. how long does president obama's second term last? second terms don't last four years sometimes domestically. >> they last four years, but there's a shelf life to what you can get done. >> yeah. >> paw team will start looking at the midterms quickly. >> this is his year. >> 2013 is an important year to get things done. tax reform, immigration reform. we have to finish implementing the health care law. a year from now people will be signing up for exchanges in states all over the country. >> perry? >> we don't know if barack obama is a liberal a moderate. we've been debating that for two, four years. >> you think we'll know? >> i think we'll know. we will know by next year. >> i'm going put you on the spot, mcauliffe, the big race in

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2013. which will dominate the washington media market. terry mcauliffe? >> it's such a fascinating race, because it's kind of -- cucinelli is the national tea party hero in waiting, with alan west and michele bachmann. >> he wins? >> if he wins, could see him in 2016. >> year of 2012, besides president obama's re-election, known as the year america got comfortable with gay marriage. that's it for this special edition of "the daily rundown." happy holidays, happy new year. be safe from all of us at "the daily rundown."