The UCI president, Brian Cookson, has told the Guardian that the Astana team of Tour de France winner Vincenzo Nibali are “on a very short leash at the moment,” reiterating that there is a very definite possibility of the team’s licence to compete being withdrawn if further evidence against them comes to light, or in the case of a further positive drugs test among their riders.

Astana were last week issued with a licence to compete in WorldTour events – giving them automatic entry to major races including the Tour de France – but following a rash of positive dope tests within the team, the UCI’s Licence Commission placed them “very much on probation”, in Cookson’s words. They face possible trouble on several fronts.

A team from Lausanne University have a deadline of February 2015 to audit the extent to which Astana were responsible for the doping cases, and assess their governance. They will also assess Astana’s compliance to a set of measures due to be introduced in 2017 intended to make teams more responsible for their individual riders. Cookson said any failure to cooperate with the audit team would be viewed as “a very big negative. They should be under no illusions that if they don’t fully cooperate that will be counted against them.”

The UCI is also waiting for the Italian Olympic Committee (Coni) to send them a police report compiled by magistrates in Padua into illegal payments linked to doping, which, according to the Italian newspaper La Gazzetta dello Sport, has linked the banned trainer Dr Michele Ferrari to the team. Ferrari has denied the claim.

Cookson said the UCI had contacted Coni daily since details of the report were leaked last week, but its understanding is that Coni is awaiting clearance from the magistrates to forward the report to the governing body. “Frankly it wouldn’t take very much for them to be referred back to the licence commission.” Cookson said. “Astana have a long and chequered history going back eight years, and that too could tell against them.” He then repeated that one more positive test could spell the end.

The UCI president added that he had been very disappointed with the way Astana reacted to the verdict of the commission, which is independent of the UCI, putting out a press release saying they were “happy and proud” while a picture was published of the team celebrating with champagne.

“There was nothing to be celebrating about,” Cookson said. “Allegations continue to be made which are very worrying for them as a team and as individuals. We are all getting heartily sick of it.”

The licence commission has two levels of sanctions it can take against a team: relegation from WorldTour to the Continental circuit, which is largely symbolic as the team can continue to compete, or withdrawal of their licence which effectively means they cease to exist.

The Astana imbroglio goes to the heart of the problem which has dogged cycling since the Festina scandal of 1998. Doping became institutionalised within teams and within minds, and to date the governing body has struggled to penalise teams rather than individuals. Riders can be banned for failing drugs tests; it has proved harder to take steps against their teams.

“Our rules and Wada rules and institutional rules have not been strong enough in the past,” said Cookson, who has been in post for only 15 months. The new Wada code will help in that area, as it brings in rules against associating with individuals or groups of people considered persona non grata. The Wada code will also enable sanctions to be taken against teams, but more in the context of individual events, for example a relay race, rather than teams as institutions or businesses.

The latter case, said Cookson, “creates a whole new set of problems because then you are talking about legal action being taken in other than sporting courts if you are talking about closing down a business or a source of employment. Once you get into this you get into money-laundering, supply chains, you get into criminality quite quickly. You are outside purely sporting terms of reference.”

Cookson added that without the work of governments in investigating doping, “we would be in a much worse position than we are now. That side of it has been very, very helpful, but when you are dealing with these complex cases you have to go through due process.

“We can’t act on information in reports that are on the internet, we have to wait for factual evidence, and make sure it’s admissible in a court of law, because there is nothing more certain than that people will appeal to Cas [Court of arbitration for Sport] or elsewhere. We’ve got to be belt and braces certain before we take any action. The licence commission has made a very detailed assessment, making a judgment which allows further consideration of information if it comes to light and I’m confident that will be sooner rather than later.”