Saturday, 17 December 2016

It was a very mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +0.4% (Dow), -0.1% (sp'500), to -2.5% (Trans). Near term outlook offers a retrace of 1-3%. With the market still regularly breaking new historic highs, the mid term outlook remains strongly bullish.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

A new historic high of 2277, but settling the week broadly flat, -1pt @ 2258. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) continues to tick higher, as the US market remains super strong.

It is notable that the 10MA is at 2175, and will be around 2200 at year end. On no fair outlook does sustained action <2200 look viable for at least a few months.

Best guess: a relatively minor retrace to around 2230, and then upward into year end, and carrying across into late Jan/early Feb. Next big upside target zone is 2325/50. The 2500s seem viable by June/July, if commodities can rally (CRB >220).. with WTIC oil at least around $60.

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless a monthly close under the monthly 10MA, which will be around 2160/70 in January.
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Nasdaq comp'

A new historic high of 5486, but settling the week -0.1% at 5437. First soft support is around 5300. Core support remains at the giant psy' level of 5K. The 6000s are a valid target for late spring/early summer 2017.

Dow

The mighty Dow climbed for a sixth consecutive week, the best run since Nov'2015. The weekly RSI is in the mid 70s, which could be seen as indicative of a mid/long term breakout, but also short-term overbought. First support is the 19k threshold, which is around 4% lower. The old resistance of 18k is now a very secure mid term floor.

NYSE comp'

The master index has finally followed the rest of the market, breaking the 2015 high, with a new historic high of 11256. The NYSE comp' settled net lower by a moderate -0.6%. Near term outlook is bearish, with viable cooling to 11000/10900. Next big upside target is the 12k threshold, which seems probable by late spring 2017.

R2K

The second market leader saw some significant cooling, with a net weekly decline of -1.7% to 1364. Near term outlook offers 1350/40, before resuming higher into the 1400s in Jan'2017. The 1500s are now a valid target by late spring 2017.

Trans

The 'old leader' - Trans, is leading the way lower, with a net weekly decline of -2.5% to 9167. First support is the 9k threshold. Talk of 'tranny 10k' should have already begun in the mainstream. It is notable though that if WTIC oil can claw and hold above the $60 threshold in 2017, the trans will be increasingly restrained, as higher oil/fuel costs will be especially problematic for transportation companies.
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Summary

All US equity indexes are trading close to historic highs.

The NYSE comp' has finally matched other indexes, and broken above the 2015 high.

There is downside buffer of 5-6% for most indexes, before doing ANY kind of damage to the upward trend that began in Jan/Feb'.
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*Yellen is due to speak (Monday, 1.30pm) at the Univ' of Maryland on the state of the US job market. That will likely garner some media coverage.

**The US equity market will close normally at 4pm on Friday, The following Monday of Dec'26th is CLOSED. Friday Dec'23rd can be expected to see exceptionally subdued price action, probably no more than a few points range.

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As ever, if you value these posts, you can support me via a monthly subscription, which will give you access to my intraday updates @ permabeardoomster.com

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -4pts @ 2258. The two
leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.0% and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled -4.6% @ 12.20. Near
term outlook offers a basic retrace to sp'2232/31, at best... the bears
might reach 2205/2190s.. before the next big surge to the 2300s and Dow
20k.

spdaily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The mainstream have been (understandably) looking forward to Dow breaking the giant psy' level of 20k. The Dow came real close on Wednesday afternoon, with a peak of 19966.

Today opened a little higher, but there was increasing weakness into the afternoon, as there are just very few willing to buy at these levels, or ahead of the weekend.

Right now, Dow 20k looks far more likely after the Christmas holiday break.. than before.
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*Bonus chart, UK, monthly

With just nine trading days left of the year, my home market of the UK is battling to break AND hold above multi-decade resistance of 7k. A Dec', or Jan' close in the 7000s would be extremely bullish, and offer further basic upside to 8k by late spring/early summer 2017.

I realise many of you (those in the USA) don't care about other world markets, but they can be used as indirect indicators of where the US market might be headed in the months, and even years ahead.
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Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm, and will detail the US weekly indexes

Disclaimer: These pages (and especially all charts) are for informational purposes only. Most of the numerical data/calculations 'should' be correct. However, YOU make your own decisions as to if you think any comment or data point/chart is correct or not. All comments posted via Disqus/Google (or any other type) users may/may not be agreed with by yours truly.

I (Permabear Doomster) am not a financial advisor as officially endorsed by any national government, corporation, financial/securities regulatory authority in neither the USA, UK, or any part of the world. None of the posts/comments in these pages are intended as trading/investment advice. They are merely my opinion on where a given market/stock and any other 'instrument, index, etc' may move at any future time.