Poll Analysis: Obama leads Romney

It’s been a couple of weeks since I’ve posted one of these analyses. Pollsters have been rather focused on the G.O.P. primary and not so much on the general election, so there have only been twelve new state head-to-head polls to incorporate into a new analysis.

The three new polls from two traditional swing states all favor Obama, with +3% in Florida and +6% & +7% in Pennsylvania.

The good news for Obama comes from three states that went for Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008: New Mexico where Obama has a remarkable +19% lead, Virginia where Obama is up by +8%, and North Carolina where Obama has ekes out a +3%.

The good news for Romney is Missouri, which McCain barely won in 2008, and that has now swung to the right: Romney leads Obama by a solid +9%.

The previous Monte Carlo analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by an average of 341 to 197 electoral votes, and 100% probability of winning an election held then.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins every time, so he is still expected to win an election held now with 100% probability. Obama receives an average of 339 to Romney’s 199 electoral votes.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

351 electoral votes with a 4.99% probability

342 electoral votes with a 3.98% probability

350 electoral votes with a 3.54% probability

341 electoral votes with a 3.14% probability

347 electoral votes with a 2.42% probability

357 electoral votes with a 2.37% probability

322 electoral votes with a 2.35% probability

336 electoral votes with a 2.35% probability

335 electoral votes with a 2.27% probability

352 electoral votes with a 2.26% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

Obama wins 100.0%, Romney wins 0.0%.

Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 338.5 (18.3)

Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 199.5 (18.3)

Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 341 (302, 370)

Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 197 (168, 236)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold

Safe

+ Strong

+ Leans

+ Weak

Safe Obama

142

Strong Obama

140

282

Leans Obama

68

68

350

Weak Obama

1

1

1

351

Weak Romney

0

0

0

187

Leans Romney

21

21

187

Strong Romney

105

166

Safe Romney

61

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

@2 Michael….Rasmussen uses their own methodology and is generally considered to be biased in favor of Republicans. Last go round, when Harry Reid was challenged by Sharon Angle, our local right-wing media, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, used Rasmussen exclusively, publishing weekly polls showing Angle up by as much as 6 points. We all know how accurate that was.

I assume these polls were taken before the Romney aide’s “Etch-A-Sketch” remark doomed Mittster’s candidacy. The only question now is whether Santorum will lose to Obama by an even bigger margin than Goldwater to LBJ. This year is shaping up to be 1964 all over again.

I’m not sure I buy South Carolina going Obama over Romney, unless the whole Mormon thing keeps the white fundies at home in a BIG way. North Carolina ditto, perhaps both it a Virginia a bit more favorable to Obama. Once again it comes down to Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Rachel did a great story on the Etch-A-Sketch. Mittens company, Bain Capital, bought the Etch-A-Sketch company and moved manufacturing to China. The union jobs “Mittens, the job creator” eliminated here paid a whopping $9 per hour. The jobs “Mittens, the job creator” created there pays a more “reasonable” $.24 an hour. But you do get to work 84 hours a week there.

I have to assume that the gap between Romney and the President is going to get a lot closer in the coming months. Romney’s bound to get some of the Santorum & Gingrich supporters to swallow their convictions and support Romney, just because he’s the only Republican candidate available. And Romney is bound to pick up some big super-Pac money to offset the lack of individual donations.

The real test will be who will get the most “non-votes” – i.e.,those who fall to the far extremes of the political spectrum, and decide not to go to the polls. The President has a number of disenchanged liberals who think he’s to conservative, Romney has a lot of disenchanged Tea-Party types who think he’s a closet liberal.

And then, there’s Ron Paul. Even if he doesn’t mount a third-party challenge, his supporters may have the same effect – by bleeding off votes from the Republicans by not voting at all.

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