Bernanke Strikes Again!

Another big fall for gold as the Fed chairman appears before Congress...

Six days after they climbed back above $1600 an ounce, gold
prices dropped back below that level on Thursday, as Federal Reserve
chairman Ben Bernanke appeared before Congress at the Joint Economic Committee.

This is not
the first time we've seen this. Back on February 29, gold fell $100 an
ounce while Bernanke was testifying before the House Financial Services Committee.
What on earth is the man saying to have such an adverse impact on gold
prices?

Well, on the two occasions cited above, it wasn't what he said, but what he
failed to say that did the damage. In short, Bernanke failed to make any explicit
promises of further Fed quantitative easing.

Last Friday, gold shot up 5% in Dollar terms, following disappointing
US jobs and manufacturing data. Clearly, some traders were betting that
the Fed would respond by announcing further stimulus, a bet that failed to
pay off. Bernanke's reticence in this regard is hardly surprising, though.
It's what central bankers do: they say as little as they can get away with
to keep as many options open as they can.

They also talk to each other, and it seems the major central bankers have
agreed a common script, one which has as its central theme a focus on the failings
of fiscal policymakers (i.e. politicians). Here is European Central Bank president
Mario Draghi speaking
on Wednesday:

"Some of these problems in the Euro area have nothing to do with monetary
policy. That is what we have to be aware of and I do not think it would
be right for monetary policy to compensate for other institutions' lack
of action."

"...under current policies and reasonable economic assumptions, the [Congressional
Budget Office] projects that the structural budget gap and the ratio of
federal debt to GDP will trend upward thereafter, in large part reflecting
rapidly escalating health expenditures and the aging of the population.
This dynamic is clearly unsustainable...fiscal policy must be placed on
a sustainable path that eventually results in a stable or declining ratio
of federal debt to GDP."

Translation: don't look at us.

Central bankers are trying to put pressure on their political masters to deal
with problems that are beyond the scope of monetary policy. It is these problems,
they argue, that are at the root of the current crisis.

It was put to Bernanke by JEC vice chairman Kevin Brady that the Fed itself
is encouraging political inaction by keeping QE3, a potential third round of
quantitative easing, on the table.

In other words, the belief that the Fed is on standby to combat any crisis
makes a crisis more likely, reducing as it does the incentive to take difficult
preventative action.

The trouble is, the Fed and other central banks daren't row too far back from
talk of stimulus for fear that this will provoke a crisis. This is why Bernanke
made it clear the option was on the table, while also saying "Look over there" and
pointing at the so-called fiscal cliff - the combination of tax cut expiries
and mandated spending cuts that await the US should lawmakers fail to reach
agreements to prevent them (a genuine risk in an election year).

So we are at an impasse, meaning gold
prices are susceptible to marginal sentiment and bets on what monetary
policymakers will do next. This has been the case all year. For example, gold
pricesrallied
in January after the Fed published projections showing its policymakers
expected near-zero interest rates until late 2014. Gold
also saw a jump in March as Bernanke reiterated the need for accommodative
policies.

The truth is, though, that there has been little rhyme or reason to these
moves. If you look at what Bernanke actually said on each occasion, it is pretty
much a rehash of what he's said before. Fed statements since the start of the
year have all broadly said this: "We're not out of the woods, we'll keep an
eye on things, and we'll do as we see fit."

Details have changed, depending on the newsflow, but that's all. Here's an
extract from Thursday's testimony:

"...the situation in Europe poses significant risks to the US financial
system and economy and must be monitored closely. As always, the Federal
Reserve remains prepared to take action as needed to protect the US financial
system and economy in the event that financial stresses escalate."

Later on, Bernanke said there is "no justification" for fears that QE could
spark inflation. Taking these comments together, one could make a case that
the Fed are about to push the button marked 'More Stimulus'. But of course,
traders had already jumped to that conclusion last Friday, and so were forced
to 'unjump'.

The truth is, we don't know when or if we will see more QE, and we doubt anyone
at the Fed does either. QE is not about economic stimulus. Not really. It may
be packaged as a way of boosting growth, but in our view its real aim is to
fight crises in the banking sector.

This is where it gets difficult for gold investors. It may be that the Fed,
along with other central banks, are holding fire until the banking stresses
in Europe become really acute. As we saw last November and December, a banking
crisis can be accompanied by sharp falls in gold
prices, as gold is sold or leased to raise Dollars, increasing its immediate
supply and putting downward pressure on prices.

Indeed, along with the disappointment that Bernanke was note more dovish following
last week's economic news, another possible explanation for gold's fall this
week is that uncertainty over QE raises the risk of a sudden funding crunch.

Another factor to bear in mind is inflation expectations. Bernanke said on
Thursday that these are "quite well anchored". But some
argue that they are still too high to make QE an immediate prospect, with
5-Year breakeven rates - the difference in yield between inflation-linked and
nominal debt - still too high:

There remains a significant chance we will yet see more Fed QE. But things
may need to get quite a bit worse first. In the meantime, the only clues we
are likely to get are those we can glean from the Orwellian radio static of
central banker doublespeak.

Or, if you're a long run investor, you could just ignore the noise being made
by gold prices and
crack open a beer...

Editor of Gold News, the analysis
and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault,
Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's
longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a
professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it.
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will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already
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