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US intelligence on Iraq “compelling” but limited

The US says a chemical decontamination vehicle near a munitions bunker (left) is missing during later UN inspections (right), suggesting weapons have been removed

(Image&colon; US State Department)

The US evidence delivered to the United Nations to convince the world that Iraq has not given up its prohibited weapons of mass destruction has impressed the majority of independent analysts.

Experts describe the satellite images, intercepted telephone conversations and defector’s testimonies as compelling, although some say the evidence falls short of supporting all US claims. Secretary of State Colin Powell presented the information to the UN in New York on Wednesday.

Patrick Garrett, an analyst with the US military think tank Global Security, describes the November 2002 satellite images of a chemical decontamination truck close to a munitions bunker as “pretty damning evidence” that the bunker contained chemical weapons. He says Global Security is currently trying to verify the accuracy of all the satellite images produced by the US.

But, of the telephone recordings that appear to reveal Iraqi government officials deceiving UN inspectors, Garrett says&colon; “It’s open to interpretation as to how true they are.”

“Powell laid out a fairly comprehensive circumstantial case,” Garrett told New Scientist. “When you look at the whole presentation in its entirety, it’s a really rather comprehensive and compelling argument.”

Aluminum tubes

Powell also argued his evidence showed that Iraq has continued its efforts to develop nuclear weapons. He focused on the aluminium tubes found by weapons inspectors that some experts believe could be used as centrifuges for uranium enrichment.

He dismissed suggestions that the tubes were designed for ordinary rockets. “Why would they continue refining the specifications, go to all that trouble for something that, if it was a rocket, would soon be blown into shrapnel when it went off?” Powell said.

Robert Norris, author of The Nuclear Weapons Databook says this new evidence was persuasive. He told The Guardian newspaper that it “confirms that Saddam Hussein is trying to reconstitute his nuclear programme”.

Lost location

But not all military analysts were convinced. Satellite image expert Bhupendra Jasani, at King’s College London, says it is difficult to accurately identify bases, weapons and vehicles shown in the satellite images. He adds that the locations depicted in the images are not clear.

“When I look at it I can’t be sure what I’m seeing,” he says. Jasani believes the US has much sharper satellite images, but was probably keen to disguise its real intelligence capabilities.

Jasani notes that the defector’s testimonies, widely used to bolster Powell’s presentation, may be unreliable either due to interrogation techniques or the defector’s desire to impress. The telephone conversations could easily have been tampered with, he says. But, if genuine, they may have been captured via satellite – a surveillance capability never publicly demonstrated before.

“All those things put together give you more confidence, but I’m not fully convinced,” Jasani told New Scientist

Special effects

Iraq has dismissed the US evidence as lies. Saddam Hussein’s advisor General Amer al-Saadi described Powell’s speech as “a typical American show, complete with stunts and special effects.”

UN resolution 1441 places the onus on Iraq to prove that its prohibited weapons programmes have been dismantled or face “serious consequences”. The UN chief weapons inspector Hans Blix says Iraq is failing to provide this proof.

But military action backed by all UN security council members does not appear imminent. While many analysts found the US intelligence compelling, the nations least in favour of war reacted to it with renewed calls to give weapons inspectors in Iraq more time.