932
FXUS61 KBGM 241432
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1032 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A large region of dry high pressure, will keep a mostly clear
sky going through Friday, with warming temperatures. Increasing
moisture and an approaching frontal boundary, will result in
chances for showers or thunderstorms over the weekend,
especially Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1030 am update... Steady as she goes with the forecast. Little
or no modifications needed at this time.
Satellite imagery late this morning shows clear skies area-wide,
within a very dry regime. No changes anticipated this afternoon,
as a weak back-door front over far northern NY and New England
retreats eastward and further undergoes frontolysis.
Observed 925-850 mb temperatures late this morning, along with
the expectation of a little warm air advection this afternoon,
support highs in the mid 70s-lower 80s range. Enjoy!
Previous discussion... 315 AM Update... Quite a splendid dry
and warm couple of late May days to start the forecast off, in
the near term.
Very broad and dry high pressure is now centered over the Ohio
Valley yet its reach sprawls out over a huge area including our
region. Despite clear sky and recent rains, air mass is still
advecting in with dry mixing just off the surface and thus we
are not getting the typical valley fog. It has taken until now
for Sidney NY to even reach 5 mile visibility. Patches of very
shallow valley fog may occur right around dawn in our most
sheltered/deep cut valleys but vast majority will just have a
clear crisp sunrise early this morning.
After starting off at mid 40s-mid 50s, wall-to-wall sunshine
will rapidly warm the dry air to mid 70s-near 80 for highs
today. As is typical for this type of set up with abundant dry
air above the boundary layer, dewpoints will likely crash below
guidance values into mid 30s-mid 40s, which will produce
relative humidity values down to only 25-35 percent range this
afternoon. Not even the smallest hint of mugginess today.
For tonight, the center of high pressure will shift to our south
yet of course it will still dominate with clear sky. There might
be just a little more success at some patchy fog in the valleys;
overall not a solid fog night however. Lows will be mainly 50s.
On Friday, with the high drifting off the Midatlantic Coast, we
get into west-southwesterly warm air advection return flow that
will boost temperatures into widespread 80s for all except the
very highest elevations. Some spots could even touch upper 80s.
Dewpoints will be just a tad higher, mostly in the upper 40s-
lower 50s; still far from being humid. With deeper mixing to
800mb or so, daytime gusts will be frequently 15-20 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM Update...
High pressure will continue to move out to sea and give way to an
approaching cold front by Saturday night. Warmth and moisture will
be transported ahead of the front with enough instability Saturday
afternoon for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to form with the
peak heating hours. Temperatures should rise well into the 80`s
after a muggier start around 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 AM Update...
Sunday through Monday night:
The cold frontal boundary will likely become a backdoor front and
move east to west across parts of the region on Sunday then push
through the entire region by Monday night. With the front drawing
closer, it will serve as a trigger for more in the way of widespread
showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. If enough
instability is realized, a threat for strong to severe storms would
be present. However, with modeling showing convection earlier in the
day now that window looks a bit narrower compared to the past few
model cycles. Scattered showers and storms will likely linger into
the holiday with the front still close by. Temperatures should start
a slow cooling trend with highs falling back into the 70`s and
clouds keeping lows up in the 60`s. The ensemble spread is actually
increasing with the temperature forecast in this timeframe so these
numbers could adjust a bit as we draw closer to the end of the
holiday weekend.
Tuesday through Wednesday:
High pressure builds southeast into the region resulting in a likely
dry period. Tropical moisture may start to increase Wednesday but
given uncertainty and model differences held off any thunderstorm
chances till after Wednesday at this time. Highs look to be around
80 with lows in the 50`s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z Update...
VFR as high pressure takes over the region. Despite clear sky
and recent rains, valley fog formation did not manage to occur
at the terminals early this morning, as air mass is very dry and
there is mixing still going on immediately above the surface.
After another day of drying out with sunny sky today, some
continued winds just above the surface tonight again lends
little confidence for any valley fog formation early Friday
morning, thus it is not included in TAFs. Winds will be
generally out of the northwest 4-8 knots today, then very light
southwest to southeast or variable tonight.
Outlook...
Friday through Friday night...VFR.
Saturday through Monday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms
with associated restrictions; highest chances on Sunday.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MDP