EXCLUSIVE POLL: Insiders from Both Parties Give Obama High Marks

By James A. Barnes and Peter Bell

+

(Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images)

President Obama has received a major political boost—at least for now—from the successful U.S. military action that killed 9-11 master-mind Osama bin Laden, according to a National Journal Political Insiders Poll conducted this afternoon. Asked what the impact of killing Bin Laden would be the President's political standing, more than 90 percent of the Democratic Insiders and two-thirds of the Republican Insiders said that the Obama would see a "great deal" or a "fair amount" of improvement in his position.

With the successful military strike, Insiders in both parties felt that Obama has been able to quell doubts about his conduct of foreign policy and burnished his leadership image. “For once the President has shown he can lead and get results,” said one Republican Insider. “He looks stronger than he has on any other issue.” A Democratic Insider echoed that this is a “huge positive for him as commander in chief: the more details come out the better he and his national security team look.” Another Democratic Insider noted: “One of the main criticisms [of Obama] is that when it comes to foreign policy, he is not strong enough and is an apologist to the world—this puts those arguments to bed.”

And one Republican Insider went so far as to declare that "foreign Policy is off the table as a 2012 issue. Going from spectator-in-chief to 'Lord High Executioner' demonstrates resolve, toughness and purpose."

At the same time, many Insiders cautioned that the boost to Obama's standing could be short-lived. "It will be fleeting," averred a Democratic Insider. "The [public's] focus will return to jobs and the economy in under two weeks. However, OBL will be a standing line in all speeches going forward." Added a GOP Insider: "Americans have short memories, so gas prices, the wars, and the general economic malaise will come back in a week or two."

ADVERTISEMENT

Several Insiders, both Democrats and Republicans, recalled that after the successful prosecution of the first Iraq war, President George H. W. Bush saw his poll numbers leap into the political stratosphere, only to tumble back to earth when the economy soured in 1991 and 1992. “We all remember the triumphant Bush 41 at the Gulf War victory parade; however by November, ’92, not so much,” said one Republican Insider. “Remember, these bumps are not always enduring,” said a Democratic Insider. “[George H. W.] Bush after Desert Storm had a 91 percent approval rating then lost the election 18 months later to Bill Clinton.”

Indeed, Insiders in both parties speculated that the rising gas prices could quickly undercut the President’s political gain. “It will have a small improvement that people will remember until the next time they fill their cars with gas,” said a Democratic Insider. “It will help a lot, until gas hits $4.50 a gallon,” echoed a Republican.

The National Journal Political Insiders Poll is a regular survey of political operatives, strategists, campaign consultants and lobbyists in both parties. Below are the names of the Insiders who are surveyed: