December 14, 2016

The solar and renewable energy industries are constantly
evolving — and sometimes changing abruptly – and this will continue in the new
year that is soon upon us. Here’s what can we expect from 2017:

1. China takes leadership
role in solar energy policy making

China has taken leadership in photovoltaics manufacturing
and deployment. Now it also has the golden opportunity to do it in policy
making. With the uncertainty surrounding new U.S. energy and climate policy,
China has a once-in-a-lifetime chance to move its policy positions forward —
and it will, despite some disturbing signals from Beijing (the announcement of
new lowered feed-in-tariffs, quite natural as prices have been falling, but
also a larger than expected cut for rooftop PV suggesting that the government
is trying to make life easier for struggling large PV companies installing
large solar energy parks).

Beijing clearly does not want large deployments of
distributed rooftop PV. However, most other countries do exactly the opposite.
Watch out for a large Chinese energy tax that will make rooftop
PV attractive anyway.

We can also conclude that Chinese PV suppliers have
circumvented EU’s Minimum Import Price (MIP) scheme by manufacturing solar
panels in Malaysia and other Asian countries, rendering MIP ineffective and
ready to be replaced by some other scheme.

2. Transportation and photovoltaics
will grow closer

The global transportation fleet is turning electric faster
than anyone could have imagined only a year ago. But to charge an electric car
with electricity from a coal fired power plant does not make sense as you will
emit as much CO2 as from a combustion engine. Elon Musk was not the first person
to realize this and take action, but rather Honda with its now defunct CIGS
factory a few years ago. But now with Tesla's
merger with Solar City we might see the beginning of alliances. I
predict that transportation and solar will grow even closer in 2017.

3. Paris agreement will boost
photovoltaics

The
Paris Agreement now is in force. At the same time, Germany is closing
all its nuclear power plants. So there needs to be substantial global
investments in renewable, clean energy sources, with PV as the most natural
choice, to replace non-renewable energy sources and to keep promises made in
Paris. As soon as politicians start to take actions on their policy
commitments, PV will once again need capacity expansion. 2017 is the year it
will happen!

4. President Trump will turn
green

Donald Trump will turn green and it will happen already
in 2017. Renewable energy is the most efficient way to make the U.S.
independent and self-sufficient. U.S. citizens like independence and so
does President-elect Trump. Many U.S. families have gasoline-powered
electric generators in their garages. If policies are made to curb feed-in
tariffs and net-metering, Tesla will just sell more batteries and more
households will go off-grid. The PV revolution has just started and it will take
more than a policy shift to stop it.