My friend was browsing through the GTS, when he came across an offer of a shiny rayquaza for a dewpider. Needless to say, he accepted the trade request.
Sure, some generous or just plain stupid people do put up good offers time to time. But upon closer inspection, the rayquaza was a Jolly natured one ( which many consider to be perfect for a rayquaza) and had perfect IVs in each stat.
What is the exact probability of getting this rayquaza in the wormhole? And is this just so highly improbable that it is more likely to have been cracked into the game? Or was there some event which I don't know about? (Sorry for so many questions.)

2 Answers

3 votes

There is a 99.99% chance that this Rayquaza is hacked.

6 IVs in every single stat is an extremely rare find in terms of wild Pokémon. The chances of a legendary being shiny, which is also extremely rare, AND having 6 IVs in every stat should always give it away that it is hacked. Jolly Nature can be obtained with abilities such as Synchronize, but this person likely didn't use this method, as it is shiny and 6IV. He hacked it. Also, I don't think anyone is crazy enough to trade a legit, 6IV, shiny Rayquaza for a Dewpider.

glitched pokemon can affect a game negatively, but any hacked pokemon that have anything impossible to get on them (like Sturdy Shedinja, a pokemon with 252 EVs in all stats, shiny locked pokemon, and things like Charizard with Dragon Ascent) cannot be traded; the game won't allow it.

Thought I'd give you guys some maths. Best case scenario (Shiny Charm + Jolly Synch), the odds of finding this Rayquaza are 1 in 2,931,315,179,520. That's almost 3 trillion. To put that into perspective, while hunting for this thing, there will be over 1,000 independent instances of you running into 3 charm odds shinies *in a row.*
Honestly, if it's not hacked, it was achieved through RNG abuse, which some people would still argue makes it illegitimate. But there's no way this thing was obtained through regular gameplay.

First of all, the chance of a random IV being perfect is 1/32; the range of 0-31 is inclusive, making for 32 possible values including 0.
Secondly, there are 25 natures, and therefore a 1/25 chance of getting the right nature without Synchronize, not 1/16.
Third, although I can't blame you for getting this wrong, as this is much more obscure, the way the game ensures perfect IVs is a bit complicated. Here's what the game does, if you're too lazy to read, I have the short version in the paragraph under it:
The game generates a regular IV spread at random, just like every other Pokémon, then checks if it has at least the required number of 31s. If it doesn't, it maxes out the highest imperfect stat(s) until it does. For example, say that the game needs to generate a Pokémon with at least 3 perfect IVs, and generates a spread of 26/5/28/17/31/19. The game will then change it to 31/5/31/17/31/19, maxing out the two highest imperfect stats to get three perfect IVs.

Because of this, the only way of getting a 6IV Pokémon is if the initial spread rolled is perfect, which is the same as it would be for any other wild Pokémon, a 1/1,073,741,824 chance (for IVs alone).