Local Bodies

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

The defining element of John Key's reign as New Zealand's 38th Prime Minister will be his ability to maintain a high level of popularity while dogged by scandal and few lasting achievements. He should be recognised for his political instincts and ability to steadily push through National's agenda while avoiding blame for numerous failures. The title "Telfon John" was one of the few things that stuck. Key's major effort to achieve a legacy for himself was to push for a new national flag and it failed dismally. His resignation may indeed be for genuine reasons, like spending time with his family, but the timing is also clever because the underfunding of Government sectors is going to be shortly and seriously realised and the housing bubble is close to bursting. Key's money trader instincts are highly tuned and I'm sure he smells disaster ahead.

Under Key's watch our public debt has increased from $10 billion in 2008 under Labour to almost %70 billion now. Cutting income taxes for the already wealthy, not implementing a capital gains tax and refusing to effectively deal with corporate tax avoidance has meant limiting spending across Government sectors to achieve a surplus. Conservation has suffered badly after successive cuts and both health and education have experienced funding shortfalls over the past 8 years and many social services have been cut altogether.

John Key has been a prominent international leader because of his easy manner and willingness to pander to big business and big Governments. One of the most popular speeches online regarding the Prime Minister was one by Green MP Gareth Hughes where he listed Key's many failings.

Some positive things have occurred under a John Key led Government including the change in legislation to allow same sex marriage and over 300,000 houses insulated. However neither were instigated and really championed by National.

The Green party refused to congratulate Donald Trump as President Elect because of his shocking and extreme stances during his campaign and I find it difficult to thank John Key for his service when majority of New Zealanders have seen a reduction in services and diminished quality of life, while an elite few prospered hugely. Under Key it has been the very rich in NZ who have really benefited, with many seeing their wealth increase annually by over 20%. While John Key claimed, after his victory in 2014, that he would govern for all New Zealanders, the evidence has been otherwise.

To have achieved such high living standards while suffering severe financial constraints because of the US trade embargo (and including several assassination attempts) deserves some recognition. Castro was a dictator, but a largely benevolent one. Nelson Mandela admired Castro and credited him with doing more to end apartheid in South Africa than anything the US did. Cuba has also shamed the US for the level of aid it has provided for struggling neighbours like Haiti. I'm sure few realise that not only did Cuba lead the world with its medical aid but the Cuban National Ballet is internationally regarded.

To compare Castro with the likes of Stalin, Hitler or Bin Laden displays a high level of ignorance and blind acceptance of propaganda. For the New Zealand media to support the attacks on Trudeau for recognising Castro's real achievements is embarrassing. Castro was no saint but as a leader he probably achieved more that should be celebrated than many.

The commercialisation of our news media and the ease with which unethical and egocentric politicians can cynically manipulate public opinion is now reaching extreme proportions.

In the UK the political interests of Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson were advanced successfully because their bombastic personas and simplistic messaging were picked up so widely in media. It is a sad fact that news outlets with the largest readership maintain their dominance through sensationalism and gossip, rather than educated and informed journalism. This works well for those who have few scruples and are comfortable operating in that environment.

The circulation of printed newspapers have plummeted in the UK over the past six years and the dominant newspapers include the Sun, the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph. I used to read the Independent and the Guardian when I lived in the UK over twenty years ago and I was shocked to note that the Independent's circulation is now not much more than the population of Invercargill and the Guardian's has been halved since 2010 (now only 160,000). The Daily Mail dominates the online news space, with a monthly audience of 29 million, with little reporting of substance. Throughout the Brexit campaign it gave enthusiastic coverage of Johnson and UKIP's Farage with limited journalistic scrutiny.

In the US, against all predictions, Donald Trump won through a relatively modest campaign budget and the huge media exposure of his outrageous statements. Fox News is probably the US equivalent of the Daily Mail and its prominent news host, Sean Hannity, publicly endorsed Trump months before the election. The right wing conspiracy theorist, Alex Jones, is an influential voice for many working class white Americans and he was also strong in his support of Donald Trump. Jones' radio show is syndicated across 130 stations and claims to have 80 million video views a month. Facts and balanced reporting are not usually associated with Hannity or Jones and yet their opinions had a huge influence on voters.

Neoliberal, conservative governments have increasingly served the interests of multinationals and the banking and finance industries over the majority of citizens. To ensure their political success they have had to appeal to the very people who have been exploited through their policies. The working classes in developed countries have not fared well in a free market environment. Global competition has resulted in limiting wage increases, destroyed unions and reducing working conditions. Conservative governments can only be elected if they can shift attention from the real consequences of their policies, including increasing corporate welfare at the expense of spending on the welfare of ordinary citizens. The US Federal Reserve ended up spending $7.7 trillion to bail out financial institutions that had failed because of corrupt practices and greed. Fossil fuel companies continue to enjoy annual subsidies of around 6.5% of global GDP (even New Zealand gifts $46 million to the oil and gas industry), despite the fact oil companies dominate the top twenty of the worlds richest.

Restricting public access to information, denigrating academic and scientific opinion and encouraging the development of personality based election campaigns has served conservative politicians well until a recently. While the working and middle classes have watched wealth distribution shift to an upward flow to a wealthy few, their growing frustration has seen the rise of two distinct politcal ideologies. In the US this saw the grassroots development of the Tea Party, supported by the less educated working class. The younger generation of the middle class supported the Occupy movement. While both movements lack leadership and sustainable organisation they represented a growing dissatisfaction with the political establishment.

The growth and freedom of commercial media was once used effectively by the conservative establishment to disperse its spin, however, the increasing sensationalism of news and erosion of journalistic ethics has seen more colourful politicians capture the limelight. To the less educated Sarah Palin, Donald Trump, Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson provide simple messages that resonate and support their prejudices. Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders encapsulated the idealism of the Occupy supporters with their principled stands and authenticity. Unfortunately the news media with the widest reach in both the US and UK have always attacked the left (note how Corbyn's Castro comments were framed) and so now we see Trump as the President Elect and Boris Johnson as Britain's Foreign Minister.

In New Zealand our National Government has been supported by talk back radio and through commercialising public TV. John Campbell got shunted into the underfunded public radio and Mike Hosking's right-wing rants are promoted through prime time television. Apart from Winston Peters most of our populist and most bombastic politicians ate found in the Government caucus. Key, Brownlee, Collins and Parata will be celebrating the latest polls.

Now that news is being treated as entertainment, and populist personalities dominate politics, we must prepare for a future that will resemble a disaster movie. Nothing sells news better than disasters and we can depend on Boris, Donald and John to deliver. Human suffering and climate change will make great stories.

The Prime Minister is claiming that crime numbers are dropping and it is an increase in the severity of crime (especially domestic violence) and tougher sentencing that is causing the problem. John Key blames recreational drugs as a major factor in crime and child poverty, this is clearly disingenuous on his part and deliberate spin to shift responsibility away from his Government. We now have levels of incarceration that place us just below Mexico and make us the 7th worst in the OECD.

The last eight years under a National led Government has seen many lost opportunities and the underfunding of systems and services that could have easily broken the cycles of crime and reduced prison numbers:

Drugs do have an impact on crime but a failed approach to managing cannabis and other recreational drugs means that we have many convicted of victimless drug crimes and where punishments have greater negative consequences than the drug itself.

Racism is rife within our justice system and Maori make up a disproportionate percentage of prison numbers (when only 15% of total population they make up 50% of the male prison population and 60% of the females). Maori are more likely to be arrested and convicted than European New Zealanders for similar crimes and behaviours.

Legal Aid funding has been been reduced and those on low incomes who cannot access legal representation are more likely to convicted. Former High Court and Chief District Court Judge, Sir Ron Young, has expressed concerns about the fairness of our current system.

Education is oftentouted as a way of reducing criminal behaviour, but this requires funding and properly targeted support. Sadly special education support does not generally reach those who would really benefit and much of the special support ends up in high decile schools instead. The new special needs model will not deliver effective support for vulnerable children either as it will essentially remove support for those over five years.

Private Prisons are a failed model both here (with Serco) and overseas (the US is closing them) and yet this Government refuses to abandon the idea. Private prisons need to make a profit and that means reducing spending on rehabilitation programmes and staffing.

Using data to hide real crime figures enables the Government to underspend in areas that need investment. My conversations with police and the revelation of the "ghost crimes" makes it clear that data manipulation is common.

When the Government is crowing about a $1.8 budget surplus and is willing to spend $1 billion on new prison beds, I do question their economic credibility and vision. It costs around $100,000 per annum to incarcerate each prisoner and spending a small fraction of that to keep them out of prison must be cost effective. Most prisoners are not a danger to society and many of those who need to be contained to protect others may not have ended up that way with timely interventions.

Our focus on punishment rather than rehabilitation for offenders who have mental health and addiction issues means the causes of their criminal activities aren't being addressed. When we release prisoners back into the community with limited treatment and support we are not making communities safer.

I do not believe that New Zealand has a higher percentage of criminals than most other countries and in many ways our systems are needlessly creating criminals and increasing risks to our communities. There are enough examples overseas to show that different models are effective in reducing prison numbers and ensuring that reoffending is less likely to occur. The Netherlands is closing prisons and serious crime is dropping there, the fact that the opposite is happening here is because of poor management not bad luck.

Friday, October 14, 2016

The Government revealed a $1.8 billion surplus and hinted at possible tax cuts. The surplus is the product of increased income and limiting spending. Bill English explained how the surplus will "increase options" for the Government but the reality is that it has mostly been achieved by restricting options for too many and delaying important expenditure. Rather than saving money in a useful way the arbitrary limits on spending in crucial areas will result in increasing future costs and unnecessary suffering, the examples are numerous:

Schools have found that their operation grants have not increased with inflation and the OECD has found expenditure per student puts us well below the average.

There has been deliberate underspends in many areas where cutting costs have no justification. Considering Christchurch is still well short of a full recovery, Cera's $106 million underspend is almost criminal.

So Bill has delivered a budget surplus and future tax cuts are being held like a shining carrot in front of voters ahead of the 2017 elections. Any tax cuts will be paid for through reduced services and the increased suffering. According to Judith Collins the poor are to blame for their circumstances and the rich deserve their privileges (her candid thoughts reveal her government's lack of empathy for our struggling communities).

Friday, October 7, 2016

Marama Davidson's participation in the Women's Boat to Gaza should be celebrated with some pride in New Zealand. Marama joined twelve other women (including Nobel Laureate Mairead Maguire) in a peaceful action of solidarity to support the besieged people of Gaza.

Without protests such as this the plight of the Palestinian people in Gaza and the illegal activity of the Israeli Government can easily be ignored. The 2014 attacks on Gaza destroyed 100,000 Palestinians homes, killed over 2,000 (495 children) and left 900 survivors with permanent disabilities. An attempt by Turkey in 2010 to bring humanitarian support for those in Gaza resulted in an attack by Israeli forces that killed nine Turkish citizens.

Past New Zealand Prime Minister, Geoffrey Palmer, led a UN investigation into the Israeli blockade that found that it had resulted in "collective punishment" and was in "flagrant contravention of international human rights and humanitarian law".

Marama's participation in the Freedom Flotilla was a principled decision and a brave one considering the past reactions of the Israeli forces. Given that the blockade has now been in force for almost ten years it is clear that international diplomacy has failed and peaceful protest action is necessary to highlight the realities of the ongoing suffering.

When Marama was captured while still in international waters, and detained by Israeli authorities, I would have expected recognition from our Government for her bravery and immediate condemnation for her detention. The response has been the opposite. The Prime Minister described Marama's detention as "a less-than-perfect look" and Judith Collins described the protest as "a stunt" and suggested that Marama is paid to do a job in New Zealand. Their responses ignored the fact that a vote was put to the House in support of the Women's Boat to Gaza by Catherine Delahunty and it was passed with a clear majority.

Friday, September 30, 2016

The Southland Regional Development Strategy (SoRDS) is a well intentioned initiative supported by the Gore District Council, the Southland District Council and the Invercargill City Council. While the final strategy is still to be publicly released some key issues have been identified and some solutions suggested. The region's population is a relatively static and aging one, therefore a goal of increasing our population by 10,000 people by 2025 has already been proposed as a major goal.

I have some serious concerns about the logistical issues and economic realities of this goal. I asked Tom Campbell (SoRDS Chair) a question regarding our current housing supply and quality during a recent presentation and he informed the meeting that the provision of the necessary infrastructure was not part of their brief. I also have expressed my concern about the people that SoRDS are hoping to attract, it appears that the key magnets will be the Southern Institute of Technology's educational opportunities and jobs created by the tourist industry and an expansion of aquaculture. While these industries will create greater economic activity, fish factory workers, service workers and students don't generally have deep wallets.

Invercargill has housing problems not that dissimilar from Auckland, relative to our population. We have around 400 homeless at any given time and a shortage of supply. No new state houses have been built in Invercargill since the early 90s and the quality of rental housing is poor. I am part of a community housing steering group that has gained funding from the Invercargill City Council to pay a researcher to properly quantify our current housing needs, which already appear extensive.

If we are going to bring in 10,000 more people here we need to have appropriate housing and we probably should address the current needs first before we add more pressure to the rental market. If most of those arriving will be earning minimal wages, few will be buying or building their own homes. We don't want to end up with similar housing problems to Queenstown and need to plan ahead.