Two links to Marco Arment within a few days? Well, if you make good points: "Many Windows developers were upset that iOS development had to be done on a Mac, but it didn't hurt Apple: the most important developers for iOS apps were already using Macs. But the success of Windows 8 and Windows Phone in the consumer space requires many of those consumer-product developers, now entrenched in the Apple ecosystem, to care so much about Windows development that they want to use Windows to develop for it. How likely is that?" As usual a bit too Apple-centric (he implies - as explicit as possible while still being implicit - that only iOS developers can create great applications), but his point still stands. Judging by the abysmal quality of Microsoft's own Metro applications (Mail, Video, Music, People, IE10, etc.), even Microsoft doesn't know how to create great Metro applications.

There is another option which is to lower porting costs by layering Android on top of .NET.

The current plan of trying to leverage their desktop market and forcing the start screen to encourage 'app' development will fail.

Windows 8 will be hated by both developers and casual users. People will keep buying iPads and shareholders will want Ballmer's head.

But what do I know, I merely work on enterprise .NET applications and haven't heard a single positive thing about Windows 8 from everyone I work with. Word on the street is that Microsoft sales reps are taking a lot of heat over the release preview.