Saturday, January 1, 2011

Carl Pavano, it's 2011. Do you know where your contract is?

The waiting is the hardest part.

This wasn't the way Carl Pavano's contract talks were supposed to go.

After his high-quality 2010 season -- 17-11, 3.75 -- he figured to cash on his pair of one-year, make-good deals. He'd gone two seasons without injury, two seasons of 200-plus innings. He was arguably the second-best starter on the free agent market.

The expectations were for a three-year deal totalling $30 million.

Hasn't happened. Doesn't appear to be happening. Might not ever have been a possibility.

Ted Lilly got such a deal, but Lilly is (a) left-handed, (b) two years younger and (c) has a less extensive injury history.

Jon Garland, who has been far more durable than Pavano and is five years younger, got a mere one-year, $5 million deal ($2 million less than Pavano got last season).

Pavano and his agent appear to have figured that if they waited out the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, the teams that were after Lee and missed would go after him. And they probably figured that the Yankees would sign Lee. But that didn't happen. Pavano's history with the Yankees made them an impossible destination (probably for either side), and Texas is apparently uninterested in Pavano.

The Brewers are said to have made a pitch to Pavano, then turned their attention to getting Zach Greinke. They're out.

It appears that the Pavano market is down to the Twins and the Washington Nationals. There's no competitive reason for a 35-year-old to sign with the Nats; if he does go there, it will be for the money. That he hasn't signed yet makes me wonder if either has offered even a two-year deal, much less three.

So he waits for the Twins to bid against themselves. And I don't think that's likely.