"State Senator Ernst has captured momentum in this race and has opened up a substantial lead, according to our polling. Whether it was from her recent notable ad campaigns and endorsements, or not, she is the clear frontrunner now,” said Associate Professor of Politics and Director of the Loras College Poll, Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D. in a news release issued Thursday.

The primary vote is now just three weeks away.

Budzisz said the GOP primary is now looking like a two person race at this point. He said the poll data shows Jacobs has the highest name recognition, but Ernst has more than doubled her name recognition from the last poll in early April.

The Ernst campaign released a statement Thursday afternoon after reviewing the poll:

"This is the second survey in a row to report Joni Ernst north of 30 percent on the primary ballot. This mirrors the enthusiasm we are seeing on the ground, and it clearly shows that Iowa Republicans are responding to Joni's conservative message to change Washington, cut spending, and repeal and replace Bruce Braley's Obamacare. Most importantly, it shows that Joni has the most committed voters; those that for sure say they are with her.

"These numbers explain why Mark Jacobs hit the panic button this week and started attacking Joni with misleading negative ads. But Republican voters will see through his desperate attacks. They know Joni is a proven conservative."

BRALEY CAMPAIGN WATCHING:

Bruce Braley is running for U.S. Senate on the democratic side of the ticket. His campaign is paying close attention to the poll.

"Well obviously, Ernst has gotten all this attention for these ads and shooting her weapon in that TV commercial. Really puts her in a very different spot that Mark Jacobs who is more of a traditional candidate talking about issues, talking about background. So, I think our approach will have to be different depending on which one it is," said Jeff Link with the Braley campaign.

POLL ANALYSIS:

"If I were Joni Ernst's campaign strategist, I would be very happy because as we know the key is the 35 percent mark," said KCCI Political Analyst Dennis Goldford.

The 35 percent is what a candidate must have to win the primary election, otherwise it goes to a convention to decide the candidate.

"All she needs is to capture a sixth of those undecided to come to her, and she's got her 35 percent," said Goldford.

The primary election is on June 3. Voters must be registered by May 23.