Our View: Premature withdrawal from Iraq would be a disaster, but will leadership, or polling, prevail?

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Published 6:00 pm, Saturday, November 19, 2005

That is the big question after this week's rollicking debates in Congress over the progress of the war in Iraq.

Iraq is a difficult war. It is not Desert Storm; in many ways it more closely resembles the early days of America's involvement in World War II, or the hard-fought years of the Civil War or the Revolutionary War, where defeats and setbacks or an absence of clear victory were the norm. Some Democrats and other critics have suggested it is like Vietnam, but that is true only to the extent that Vietnam was a war that was lost domestically, rather than on the battlefield. And that is precisely the danger we face in Iraq.

In World War II, the Civil War, or the Revolutionary War, had polling been available to the extent it is today, almost certainly one would have been able to find widespread discouragement over the progress of those wars.

Today, such discouragement is put on display on almost a nightly basis. According to the most recent CNN/USA Today poll, 63 percent of Americans disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war. Even worse, 50 percent of Americans now believe our country either can win the war in Iraq, but won't, or believe it absolutely cannot win.

And a slim majority prefers pushing for a specific date for a withdrawal. A total of 52 percent of adult polled would either withdraw now or withdraw within 12 months. Only 45 percent would either have U.S. troops stay as long as needed or would send more troops.

Those are the numbers that are driving the debate in Congress, and some in Congress almost certainly are using the numbers for partisan benefit, while others, like U.S. Rep. John Murtha, R-Penn., are doing so out of a sincere belief we're in a war we cannot win.

And that is precisely the effect that our enemies in Iraq have been hoping for. According to a letter the U.S intercepted sent between two senior al Qaeda leaders discussing their plans for postwar Iraq, Vietnam was their model. "Things may develop faster than we imagine," wrote Ayman al-Zawahiri in a letter to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi he wrote. "The aftermath of the collapse of American power in Vietnam - and how they ran and left their agents - is noteworthy. Because of that, we must be ready starting now."

Americans see Iraq mostly through the lens of nightly television broadcasts; that almost certainly is too limited a medium to make a sober judgment about progress in Iraq. Reports from the field, from military commanders and soldiers who actually are doing the work, generally are positive, seeing daily success, while also acknowledging the hard road ahead.

It is doubtful, however, that Americans will come to that perspective on their own. At this point, broad support for the war likely will not be visible until after an Iraqi democratic government is fully functioning and has become a full partner in securing peace in Iraq. That may not come for years.

So ultimately, it's up to President Bush and congressional leaders to set the tone, and lead - even if for a while, no one follows. The United States can prevail in Iraq. Iraqis are poised for their first parliamentary elections since the ratification of their new constitution. U.S. troops in the field are dedicated to the mission, daily risking their lives to help win for Iraqis each new milestone in their march toward a free Iraq - and to create a stable democracy in a sea of Islamic radicalism. Now is not the time for Americans to lose their resolve. There is some room for debate over how best to win this war, and veterans like Sen. John McCain have suggested some alternatives. But this is not the time to be drawing up plans for a withdrawal - even if the polls suggest otherwise.