000
FXUS61 KCAR 021336
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
936 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1035 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS ARE REBOUNDING QUICKLY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS SFCBNDRY HAS
PUSHED TO ALONG THE COAST. ONLY INDICATION OF THIS IS AN ISOLD
SHOWER ALONG COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS SHUD QUICKLY SHOVE
OFF OF THE MAINLAND IN THE NEXT HR AS SFCBNDRY CONTS TO PULL
SOUTH AND EAST.
QUICK UPDATE TO HRLY T/TD VALUES WITH THIS UPDATE. NO CHGS NEEDED
TO MAXES FOR TDA. DID DROP POPS A TAD WITH AN ISOLD SHOWER ACRS
THE NORTH EXPECTED THRU 18Z THEN SCTD SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLDTSTM AS NEXT S/WV APPCHS AFT THIS TIME. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DOWN EAST,
BUT IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN
EAST AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY FROM THE WEST. IT WILL
BE WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE WEST MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME WITH THE LINE
LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. FOR NOW WILL
ADD GUSTY WIND/SMALL HAIL FOR MON PM/EVE BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
SEVERE WORDING. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AT 00Z WED WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 00Z THU AND MOVE INTO THE NW
ATLANTIC BY THU PM. A TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND BACK INTO QUEBEC
INTO SAT. THIS WILL PUT NORTHERN MAINE IN A COOLER AND LESS HUMID
REGIME FOR MID-LATE WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE
REGION WED IT WILL LIKELY TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATEDTHUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRI WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVE SHOWER ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CROWN OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WED-
FRI, AND NEAR NORMALSAT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LCLMVFR/IFR OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL
THE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT VCTS KFVE/KCAR/KPQI THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY 17Z TO 20Z.
SHORT TERM: VFR MOST OF THE DAY MON WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS LATE
MON AND MON NIGHT AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY CROSS THE AREA WITH SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND STRONG AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR T-STORMS. MOSTLY VFR FOR TUE-
FRI...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR STORMS TUE AFTERNOON, AND AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WED
IN POCKETS OF STRATOCU.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES HAVE COME UP TO AROUND 4.5 FEET AS A SURFACE
BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE, HOWEVER WIND/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE MON INTO TUE. THE
WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FROM LATER
IN THE DAY WED THROUGH FRI.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THIS PAST JULY ENDED AS THE 8TH DRIEST ON RECORD AT
BANGOR WITH ONLY 1.16" OF RAIN. YEAR TO DATE IT IS STILL THE
COLDEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND THE 6TH COLDEST AT CARIBOU.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/CB
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/CBCLIMATE...CB