SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog

Whisper Numbers: Allegiant may need Miracles from Heaven against Zootopia

With many school districts across the country on spring break this week, Zootopia [ZOOTP] has posted impressive daily numbers. If the third weekend holds at least 65% of the second weekend, Zootopia could add another $34 million and a chance to cross the $200 million mark.

Just as they did with The Hunger Games, Lionsgate has split the final book The Divergent Series: Allegiant [DVRG3] into two films. And just like Katniss before, Tris, played by Shailene Woodley [SWOOD], will suffer the effects of franchise fatigue. While the young, female target audience may identify with a heroine trying to find her ways in the world during the first two chapters, they appear less interested in the war that takes up the PG-13 rated third installment. One year ago, the second film Insurgent opened to $52.3 million, down just 4% from Divergent. However, the sequel had much shorter legs than the first film. The Hunger Games dropped 23% between the second film Catching Fire and the third film Mockingjay Part 1. With little buzz immolating from even its fanbase, The Divergent Series appears headed for a steeper decline between Insurgent and Allegiant. Advance ticket sales are not promising and Allegiant does not get the benefit of 3D this time around in less theaters of 3740. More than 35% off from Insurgent would put Allegiant at around $33 million.

Jennifer Garner [JEGAR] stars in the faith-based drama Miracles from Heaven [MFHVN] at 3047 theaters. Sony is hoping for a repeat of their The Heaven is for Real, which took in $22.5 million two years ago this weekend. Miracles from Heaven opened on Wednesday with $1.9 million, which is roughly half of Heaven is for Real’s Wednesday debut. A similar pattern would put Miracles from Heaven at about $11 million over the weekend.

The buzz on 10 Cloverfield Lane [CELAR] has turned from positive to negative as moviegoers saw a film that was not a spinoff to Cloverfield. 10 Cloverfield Lane may tumble 55% in its second weekend to $11 million.

Melissa Rauch stars as a washed-up gymnast in the R-rated comedy The Bronze [BRONZ], which sold to Relativity at Sundance 2014 with a commitment for wide release. Thus, after Sony Pictures Classic acquired the film, The Bronze will vault into 1167 theaters for a possible dismount of $1.5 million.