000
ACUS03 KWNS 020738
SWODY3
SPC AC 020737
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF NEW
ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. OTHER STRONG
STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AREA.
...SYNOPSIS...
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW
REMAINING IN PLACE FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES. A SERIES
OF IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
WEAK IMPULSES WILL UNDERCUT WRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND EMERGE OVER THE
CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
REMAINDER OF NEW ENGLAND WITH TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND THEN WWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS AREA.
...CNTRL PLAINS...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE ERN
EXTENSION OF EML WILL HAVE ADVECTED ABOVE MOIST AXIS IN VICINITY OF
THE STALLED FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF
ASCENT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY EARLY TUESDAY...AND DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LAYER DESTABILIZES. EXTENT OF SFC-BASED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF A
CAP ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR AT BASE OF EML. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND AUGMENTS ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT. STORMS THAT REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF EARLY STORMS WILL INTRODUCE
ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
...NEW ENGLAND...
AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING
AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND EARLY CONVECTION...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. A
CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
..DIAL.. 08/02/2015