million. missouri, a candidate's spending $22 million, $8 million in outsidemoney.nevada, $18million. independent line, good morning. who is going to win? caller: i think that mr. obama is going to win, but i had three points to make and i would like you to pick one. beer summit, take one for the team, or buyer's remorse. can you pick one? host: i will let you pick. my job is to get to the phone calls. caller: let me have all three, then. host: go ahead. caller: mitt romney will never have a beer summit, he will never mediate. nothing will ever happen like that, first of all. he does not drink. take one for the team? i do not think he would take one for the team. i think he would make america team america. he would make team america take one for him. his religiosity, he may want to force that on america when we are not ready. also, the buyer's remorse. i wrote down the we would be darned if we do and donned if we do not. we will wind up with more gridlock and the republicans will wind up with mr. obama anyway. host: ok. "washington post," the annual crystal ball addition. we are taki

mayor of new york, rudy giuliani. >> i don't know what he was doing inthenevada. ifi was president of the united states, i wouldn't be flitting around the west and midwest. i feel pretty offended seeing my president floating around, campaigning while people are suffering. >> your response? >> well, mayor giuliani is running around the country campaigning for mitt romney and popping off. the people in new york and new jersey, they're working with this president and this administration, fema, every day, and our focus needs to be. really, the country has been united. mayor giuliani may be the exception to this. focus on recovery. making sure we stand by those who lost so much and need to recover. this will take a long time. the federal government's doing all they can to partner with state and local officials. we flew power equipment from california to help restore power, getting fuel into the area, and direct assistance to help with food and lodging. this is going to take a while. we're doing everything we can that we stand by the people in the eastern seaboard. >> your predecessor ka

: in the senate races, we are in michigan,wisconsin,nevada, thegovernor's race in new hampshire. we do 75 congressional races. we started off with 53 incumbents going into this election. we do some polling for the romney campaign. host: what is happening for the wisconsin senate race? guest: i did some polling for scott walker. we have it right in terms of polling as opposed to what you are seeing in the public polling. we have a net edge presidentially and in the senate race going for tom thompson in that senate race. what we are seeing there we are seeing in all of the campaigns. we have closed the gaps that democrats have in those states. guest: we see a much more partisan atmosphere than in 2008. the democrat in wisconsin has a slight lead. that will be a close race on election day. wisconsin is a little bit closer than it has been before. in the end, obama wins that state by two or three points. host: i want to put on the screen what is happening in colorado, alabama, north carolina. the number of votes cast as of yesterday. in colorado, 1.5 million votes cast. 35% for democrats, 37%

strong about our operations, particularly in states like ohio, iowa, northcarolina,nevadawithamericans are actually casting ballots already and the president has a 2-1 advantage amongst those who have already voted. but as the romney campaign and the super pacs are on the air and we're showing that we have the ability to go deep and broad as well and we're not leaving a single vote on the table. we feel great about our ground game. i was watching the bill clinton/president obama rally last night and it had all the feel of classic bill clinton. the president got pumped up by that as well. bill clinton lost his voice, but that didn't slow him down or shorten his speech at all. we heard everything, including don't stop thinking about tomorrow. there was a lot of nostalgia going on. tell me about that relationship. because it's been fraught with difficulty and we all know what it was like four years ago. there was a lot of tension and it didn't get repaired that easily. >> yesterday it was great, nobody makes a closing argument better than bill clinton does. andrea, somebody

important. but what about states likemichigan,nevada, pennsylvania,how much are they in play? especially since pennsylvania, president obama won that one, but he's not apparently taking for granted clinton will be campaigning there in his behalf? >> pennsylvania has a million more registered democrats than republicans. so it is a state that republicans have tried to contest in the last few presidential elections and have failed. but there's always sort of enough of an opportunity there that they end up making a last-minute push there. the other thing to remember is that when you're campaigning in western pennsylvania, you're hitting the tv markets in even iowa. so you do get a little bit of a t two-fer there as well. >> going to be a crazy busy couple of days for karen, for everyone. >>> the race for president is in a dead heat, so where do you think the candidates are spending a lot of their time other than ohio? there isn't another place they're spending their time. ohio, ohio, ohio. we'll go live. ...and in the tiniest details. ♪ and sometimes both. nature valley granola thins pack

: colorado, florida, ohio, new hampshire, north carolina,michigan,nevada, pennsylvania,virginia, and wisconsin. bob, i point out dana referenced a column, who thinks it will be 315 to 223 for obama and rollins was in the green room and he said he is the best in the business and he has never gotten it wrong. what do you make of that prediction in bob: it is significant. but he has gotten it wrong a few times. if i were in, and he is doing what he is doing, now, he clearly has a side and i would look at the happy side, the happy side from my side and right now obama is ahead in eight of the 11 target points. >> but democrats trail in target states i mentioned but especially virginia, ohio, iowa and nevada. early absentee voting is not where it was for democrats in 2008. >> we had a thing back and forth and every single one of these is a toss up. each one. including pennsylvania. but, tomorrow, mitt romney 8 be in virginia, virginia, ohio, and new hampshire. look at states, and he has virginia, he has to work on ohio, and new hampshire is a toss up. bob: why he is going there? >> h

to get groceries this morning. thousands of grocery store workers across northern californiaandnevadaarenow on strike. as you can see from live picture, they are ready to walk that picket line. this is the knob hill in alameda. the announcement came after a midnight talks deadline passed overnight. before that the existing contract was extended hour by hour. management and union leaders have been in contract negotiations for more than a year. they also operate bel air markets and knob hill foods and the main sticking points are health care benefits, a proposed wage freeze and the elimination of premium pay for sunday shifts. the union contract expired at midnight. workers as you can see were ready to walk off the job. >> i talked to my family. we're ready. we're ready. we're going to fight for solidarity together. >> management says the company needs to cut costs in the face of the weak economy and competition from nonunion stores like walmart. they released a statement this morning say iing we expect owl u are a employees who are scheduled to work to show up for work on sunday. >>>

view, alex, is that the western statesofnevadaandcolorado with a huge hispanic vote and the support the president has from the hispanic community is a huge factor. in florida i can't predict. it's very close there. but it's up to the ground game. what i have seen, for instance, in florida the volunteers and campaigns of president obama four years ago it was mostly young people. this time it's more people, but young people, senior citizens, soccer moms, veterans, a larger turnout getting out that vote. and i think that's what's going to be decisive. >> you know what's interesting about the hispanic vote, there are 4 million more registered la kn tee knows. but i want to ask about your state. how do you think the president is going to perform in swing states like colorado and nevada? >> well, my view is that that hispanic vote, which is key in my state with 43%, it's key in nevada and colorado upwards of 20%, is going to come out in huge turnout because of the president's strong records are hispanics on job creation, health care, and immigration reform. and the perception that the rom

, and that's the campaign we built was one to win a close race. but if you lookatnevada, iowa,ohio, florida, virginia, new hampshire, colorado, all of these states we think the president is in a good position to win. and we think governor romney is playing defense. he is spending his last day in florida and virginia on monday. states that they were telling you in the media a few weeks ago they thought were done deals. they are far from done deals. i'd rather be the president today than romney in terms of those two states. >> i talked about the american firewall for president obama. you seem to be up in ohio at least a couple of points based on polling i've seen. a new poll from "the des moines register" has you up five in iowa. do you believe ohio and iowa are done deals in the president's column? >> david, not until the polls close. so we feel good about our position in both those states. we think we have done terrific in terms of the early vote. it's important to understand, for governor romney to win ohio, iowa, north carolina, he'll have to carry election day by a huge margin,

,nevada. >>new hampshire got me the republican nomination, and new hampshire is going to get me the white house. thanks, you guys. >> schieffer: if there's anything both sides can agree on, this is close and could come down to one state, but which one, florida, virginia, or-- >> i think you may have noticed everyone paying's a lot of attention to ohio. >> schieffer: and them there's the wild card. what will the impact that the super storm that destroyed parts of new jersey and plunkedly the lower half the manhattan into darkness have the race? we've got the latest on hurricane sandy damage,en and this we'll turn to the best of the best political remembers, analysts and race watchers to give us their take on the presidential race. we'll start with peggy noonan of the "wall street journal." dee dee myers of "vanity fair." richard lowry of the "national review." harvard university's david gergen. and our own john dickerson. then we'll talk to stu rothenberg of the stu rothenbe rothenberg political reports. allen stanford of the university of virginia center for politics, democratic pollster

as a couple point lead in tricky states like wisconsinandnevadaandplaces like that, and yet when you look at the national numbers, you see a much more murky situation. what's the difference? >> well, the difference is that it turns out that white working class voters in the midwest and the industrial midwest are different from white working class voters in the south. with jim messina and stagg about why they don't care about national numbers. the first thing if you look at the deep south, and appalachia, places where there's a lot of resistance to the president, he's polling below -- he's polling 25%, 30%, the -- those really, really red states, in the blue states, the president like where he's far ahead he's ahead by 10 or 12 points and in the red states by 30 or 40 points. chris: the red states, it's like a ballooning up of the national number. but it doesn't really hurt him electorally. >> that's the point. the national polling organizations like gallup, especially, which had romney ahead by five or circumstances points before they had -- six points before they had to stop polling beca

games. these early vote totals more than 70% of the votes are in the states of coloradoandnevada. almost40% in the state of iowa have voted right now. the president has been working at this for more than two years. governor romney modeling his ground game on the successful of george w. bush's ground game. both sides have invested a lot and have gotten it oa lot of it. >> secretary of state in ohio said that they view the candidates as house guests as they're eager to see leave. >>> later this morning, george stephanopoulos will be hosting the final edition of "this week" before the election. and on tuesday night, george, diane sawyer and the entire abc news political team will be at our election headquarters in times square all night long, it could be a long night as results come in. >> you can feel the excitement leading up to tuesday. >>> but believe it or not, there are other headlines to tell you about and ron claiborne is here for that. >>> two police officers in atlanta were killed in a helicopter crash last night while searching for a missing child. the helicopter went do

to be trailing in florida, he seems to be aheadinnevadaandcolorado as a tossup. if you read nate silver and the new york times, who i think is the best in compiling all of the polls, right now, the president is leading and has enough. >> okay, election day on tuesday. we're expecting a winner that night. you're saying not so fast. why? >> i don't see how you, if it's as close as everyone said, how there will be declared a winner because of one thing, and i brought it up a few days ago and it bears repeating. there will be hundreds of thousands, hundreds of thousands, let me repeat that, of provisional votes cast in ohio. that is votes that can not be counted because of absentee ballots and other permutations of the election day in ohio and they can't be counted for 10 days. if you have a tight race and 18 electoral votes make the difference. >> right. >> we won't know the results in ohio on election day. >> early voting so far, huge turnouts all over. does it bode better for one or another? >> democrats feel that early voting helps them and that republicans are more reliable voting on e

will probablywinnevada, andi agree with ann. it's very, very close in florida. i'm not ready to say that romney will win it, but it is very close. i still think -- you know i have been saying this for several weeks that the latino vote will give president obama more than an edge in places like florida and nav mav and colorado and arizona even possibly to be able to give him that win, but i do think, again, going into it, he has the lead in terms of the paths to get to 270 from an electoral standpoint, so i think the obama campaign is feeling very good right now. >> let me ask you about this, because the romney campaign is telling allies to sort of talk up the republican chances in democratic leaning states, forcing obama on defense is what they're trying to do. is this a strategy, do you think, that can work by just trying to send out that message? >> well, look, momentum and the image of momentum is important for both camps, and there's people who like to vote for the winner. they like to say on wednesday night, i voted for the guy on -- on wednesday morning, i voted for the guy wh

,nevada, andiowa. so how does this model work? >> so every poll that people read about goes into the model and sees the projection in some way. >> reporter: there might be 30 or 40 of them a day in this year's poll-happy universe. silver's model averaging all those polls and then factors in how well they've performed in past elections and he comes up with probabilities like gambling odds. >> florida, for example, we had romney with a 60% chance of winning. that's how often when you have a one-point lead in the average of polls you've wound up winning in the past. in ohio we have obama with about a 75% chance of winning because he has a larger lead so it's more likely to be enduring on election day itself. >> i'm projecting that you need to win 99 games in order to make it to the post office. >> reporter: think money ball, the book and film about how a geek used numbers to outdo the oakland a's scouts using their intuition to find undervalued baseball players who could win. in other words, the stat-heads versus the pundits again. nate silver started out as a baseball statisti

, mexico, texas,florida,nevada. wewon't have a chance. >> it's tough to have -- explain, gentlemen, we have primaries and we better do something. because we line up with hispanic voters. i think we do. we could argue that for hours. but our values and where we are as a party, but we're in tenuous territory. this election will tell us a lot about it. >> i told them had we started. we're not even going to get to the beginning of all of this. when we come back, we're going to be on something completely different. well, maybe not. but how many times have you heard someone say if so-and-so wins, i'm moving to canada. oh, yeah. we're going to live to our maybe in the north to even see whether or not they want us there. or that printing in color had to cost a fortune. nobody said an all-in-one had to be bulky. or that you had to print from your desk. at least, nobody said it to us. introducing the business smart inkjet all-in-one series from brother. easy to use, it's the ultimate combination of speed, small size, and low-cost printing. try running four.ning a restaurant is hard, fortunately

that is looking very difficult to call at this point and should be a good one to watchisnevada. anotherpresidential battleground state. i think at this point, most people think obama has a little bit of an edge there, but the republican has shown some ability to get democratic votes and people think he will run ahead of mitt romney in the state. that is a state where ticket splitters could make a difference in the senate race and that has been an incredibly close senate race as well. >> is there anything that would surprise you coming out of election night? >> although people thought republicans would gain control of the senate for a very long time in the beginning of this cycle, at this point, i think republicans actually picking up the four seats they need to gain senate control would really surprise me. they have had a few different things working against them. there have been some flawed candidates like todd akin and richard mourdock. those were races that the republicans were expected to win and now mr. looks like a democratic pickup. it looks more likely the democrats will hold t

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