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The Aspen Global Change Institute is an independent nonprofit dedicated to furthering scientific understanding of Earth systems and global environmental change. Our work includes interdisciplinary research, education and outreach, and collaboration with resource managers and policy-makers. Together we strive to facilitate scientific discussion for the betterment of society and natural systems, while promoting practical solutions to the challenges of today's changing Earth systems.

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Videos

These presentations represent talks given by scientists at past AGCI workshops and can be technical in nature.
To view presentations by workshop, please visit our AGCI Science Sessions page
To view video presentations intended for all audiences, try browsing our Public Lectures

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Climate change is projected to have significant impacts on regional water resources over the next century. As longtime Colorado River water manager Eric Kuhn will discuss, science predicts that the future of the Colorado will include more severe droughts, changed precipitation patterns, altered hydrographs, greater demands, and reduced supplies. Kuhn will explain the differences between traditional conservative and popular conservative approaches to water management and argue why the popular conservative approach that disregards climate change could have dire consequences for the West.

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With the worlds population growing toward 9 billion--coupled with rising incomes, expanding meat consumption, and increased allocation of cropland for biofuels--the goals of meeting basic food needs, reducing global hunger, and preserving the health of the planet will become ever more challenging. In this public talk, Dr. Rosamond Naylor, fellow at Stanford University's Institute for International Studies, examines this challenge in the context of key countries, food-feed-fuel connections, and increased instability in commodity and financial markets.

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This Walter Orr Roberts public lecture addresses the important intersection between climate change and climate variability. Dr. Lisa Goddard, research scientist with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), describes the processes, principally in the ocean, that give rise to decadal-scale variability, the current and future prospects for predicting that variability, and the utility of such predictions in planning for uncertainty.

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Dr. Shugart provides insight into how the Earth's carbon cycle works and into what still remains unknown about this essential Earth life support system. He discusses the unique importance of Russian forests in the global carbon cycle and presented the unexpected results indicating that climate change might alter the Russian forests in ways that may promote further warming. Dr. Shugart concludes by making the surprising point that Russian compliance with the Kyoto Protocol (by re-growing forests) might, in fact, produce further warming, combating the intent of the protocol.

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Since Hurricane Katrina, there has been an increasing concern that a changing climate will bring about more frequent and more intense extreme weather events. This concern has motivated scientists to investigate the connection between global warming and extreme events such as hurricanes. In this lecture, Dr. Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research discusses the scientific evidence that suggests a connection between global warming and hurricanes and comments on the political ramifications of this connection.

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There is a glimmer of hope that the living systems on Earth may be able to mitigate the effects of a changing climate. In this public lecture, Dr. Peter Cox, science director for climate change at the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, addresses this subject. Cox discusses the complex interactions between the physical and biological elements of the Earth system, and how a brand new type of computer models called "Earth System Models" are being used to more accurately predict future climate change by taking into account these dynamic interactions.

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Climate change is only one of the forces that fall under the umbrella of "global change." Disruptions to ecosystems brought about by warming and other variables affect biodiversity and bring about significant change to the global environment. In this public talk, Dr. Camille Parmesan, research fellow at the University of California Santa Barbara, reveals the correlation between climate change and shrinking biodiversity and highlights examples of how specific species are impacted by a changing climate. In her conclusion, Parmesan stresses the fact that species will be unable to adapt to climate change in the short-term, and she suggests that only by curtailing the long-term warming trend of the planet will we be able to preserve current species and ecosystems.

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How can we better understand the future climate by investigating the past? As Ray Bradley explains, proxy records--things like tree rings, ice-cores, and sediment cores--offer an invaluable window into the past climate changes and their causes. Using this historical perspective, scientists can more accurately predict future climate change. In this talk, Bradley presents the careful detective work of paleoclimatologists and the implications of their findings for modern-day climate forecasting.

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This Walter Orr Roberts Public Lecture features award winning science fiction writer Kim Stanley Robinson, who discusses abrupt climate change and the paradigm shift that accompanies this new scientific concept. In addition to presenting the evidence for abrupt climate change, Robinson comments on the resistance within the scientific community and society at large to climate change theories. He posits that a culture war between capitalism and science is currently waging and warns the outcome could have tremendous effects for the future of mankind. In his conclusion, Robinson praises the ethical values of the scientific community and suggests that society as a whole look to the scientific method as a means for political organization.

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Temperature observations during the 20th century reveal a warming trend unlike any other in many millennia. As one of the preeminent scientists looking for an explanation of this phenomena, Princeton University professor V. Ramaswamy provides an overview of existing climate models and explains in an accessible manner how various natural and anthropogenic variables potentially bring about climate change. Through his summary of available research, Ramaswamy argues that human-induced variables, particularly greenhouse gas emissions, appear to be primarily responsible for the warming trend of the 20th century.

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Precipitation patterns in the American West are widely varied and lead to both tremendous floods and prolonged droughts, and understanding these variations is a key component in helping residents adapt to life in this region. In this lecture, Kelly Redmond, deputy director of the Desert Research Institute, discusses natural variability in precipitation patterns throughout the West and comments on the additional impact human-driven climate change may have on climate and water resources in the region.

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Although carbon dioxide (CO2) has received the majority of attention related to global warming, methane (CH4) is also a powerful greenhouse gas and its impact on global warming over the last century is equal to about forty percent of the impact of carbon dioxide. In this lecture, Dr. Elaine Matthews, research scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Science, reveals that seventy percent of global methane emissions each year results from human activities such as rice irrigation, livestock raising, biomass burning, mining and processing of coal, and production and transmission of natural gas and oil. Matthews discusses methane's short lifetime and the implications of the reduction of its sources, which would make a significant impact on the course of global warming.

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The realization that society's reliance on fossil fuels is resulting in alarming changes to the Earth's climate is forcing people to evaluate a host of issues concerning energy consumption and its effect on the environment. This public event addresses these issues and endeavors to educate concerned citizens about the challenges that lie ahead. In the first half, David Keith, an expert on energy and professor at Carnegie Mellon University, describes the world's current consumption of fossil fuels and suggests future options for energy that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Keith presents the surprising idea that fossil fuel consumption can continue without its harmful side effects provided energy companies pursue carbon sequestration technologies, which Keith argues are both possible and practical. In the second half, Stanford University professor Steve Schneider talks about the challenging policy dilemmas presented by climate change in both the developed and developing world. As a possible model for pursuing environment-friendly policies, Schneider offers the case of Bhutan, a developing country that has favored environmental and cultural production over the material benefits of Western-style industrialization. This event is part of the Walter Orr Roberts Public Lecture Series. Recorded on July 25, 2000 in Aspen, Colorado.

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"Geoengineering" - ways of mitigating the effects of greenhouse gas emissions, as opposed to reducing those emissions - was proposed by Gregory Benford as a planetary scale solution. Geoengineering options range from the simple to the complex. Benford also discussed the assets and liabilities of these global scale engineering projects.

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Recent developments in space technology - and in the attitudes of political and economic figures - make it clear that the cost of access to limitless resources of nearby space can be dramatically reduced. Such cost reduction makes a host of new ventures far more attractive, and suggests an economically sound program for using those resources to provide cheap, clean, abundant energy for the residents of Earth. In this lecture, Dr. John Lewis, professor at the University of Arizona and co-director of the Space Engineering Research Center, argues that space travel can be accomplished at a fraction of the current cost so long as competitive private companies are allowed to take the place of the long-time government monopoly of space.

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In an effort to assess the threat of climate change to food supply, scientists have spent much energy investigating the complex interactions of climate change and agricultural production. These efforts have led to models that reveal that climate change will bring about both beneficial and detrimental effects on future agricultural output. In this lecture, Penn State geography professor William Easterling explains the evolution of scientific understanding on this topic and focuses on the areas where improvements to existing models can made. In in his conclusion, Easterling states that while current models indicate that agriculture can weather the effects of climate change, many uncertainties remain that could dramatically alter current forecasts.

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Improvements in energy efficiency alone are probably insufficient to stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations and mitigate their global warming potential. In this lecture, Dr. Martin Hoffert, Professor Emeritus at New York University, demonstrates that a global transition to sustainable carbon-free energy systems must be initiated to avoid a "stabilization crunch" and to meet Rio Treaty implementation demands.

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Concentrations of stratospheric ozone have decreased significantly over the last two decades, resulting in detrimental impacts on humanity and the biosphere. In this presentation, Dr. Donald Wuebbles, professor at the University of Illinois, discusses the expectations for future levels of ozone, the attempts to prevent further effects on ozone, and the concerns that remain for ozone recovery.

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This public lecture is taken from a scientific meeting on the topic: "Global Change and Natural Hazards." In this talk, Dr. William Hooke, director of the US Weather Research Program Office at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, explores extreme events, which include geophysical phenomena, ecosystem events, and societal extreme events. He discusses how the research community and government programs approach this "cycle of disaster."

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How do we get states to comply with international agreements that are themselves not very well specified, in a system that have no sanctions or other coercive instruments to bring to bear? In this lecture, Harvard government professor Abram Chayes, discusses the problem of compliance with respect to international agreements and suggests that international cooperation can occur without harsh coercive measures.

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Using satellite imagery, scientists have been able to monitor environmental change over large areas such as the Amazon. As Dr. Bruce Nelson discusses in this lecture, satellite technology enables monitoring of both natural and human-created change. Drawing from his work with Brazil's National Amazon Research Institute, Nelson explains why the human impact in the Amazon is cause for concern, and he also shows why natural disturbances in the rain forest are interesting to study.

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One of the most troubling forms of global change is the alteration of natural landscapes, which leads to habitat loss, invasive species, and diminished biodiversity. In this talk, Carla D'Antonio from the University of California, Berkeley provides an overview of how human activity is having a profound affect on natural living systems. Dr. D'Antonio argues that while society does pay attention to impacts that affect agriculture or other economic activities, it must become aware of the widespread changes that are degrading natural habitats and reducing biodiversity.

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About 20 stations have been established along the coastline of Antarctica, but only two are maintained year-round on the interior plateau: the Russian station at Vostok and the U.S. station at South Pole. In this entertaining and informative slideshow, Antarctic researcher Stephen Warren vividly illustrates the logistics of living at the South Pole. In addition, Dr. Warren discusses the results of the scientific research that brought him to the coldest place on Earth.

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Dr. Stephen Schneider believes that in addition to the usual array of baffling scientific uncertainties, cultural, psychological and educational obstacles make these already difficult problems virtually unsolvable so long as we continue to deny their existence. In this lecture, Dr. Schneider, a professor from Stanford University and a public spokesman for global change issues, provides an overview of the science behind global change and discusses public resistance to its evidence. Dr. Schneider argues that in order to have a functioning democracy, citizens must start understanding and grappling with these pressing issues in global change.

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The twentieth century brought about sweeping environmental, economic, social, and political change. Each type of change was itself substantial, but collectively these changes collaborated to produce unprecedented impacts on the Earth and the human way of life. In this lecture, Nay Htun, Deputy Director of the United Nations Environmental Programme, addresses these changes and places them in the context of global environmental change. Dr. Htun describes the forces negatively affecting the global environment and talks about possible solutions to these impacts.

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The enactment of the Montreal Protocol in 1987 is hailed as a success for international cooperation in general, and environmental policy in particular. In this talk, Dr. Peter Thacher, a retired UN diplomat, explains the circumstances surrounding the identification of the ozone hole problem and the subsequent agreement to curb CFC emissions, the leading contributor to ozone depletion. Dr. Thacher argues that there are lessons to be learned from this case-study that can be applied to future cases of cooperation on environmental issues.

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Aspen Global Change Institute

Mission

The Aspen Global Change Institute is an independent nonprofit dedicated to furthering scientific understanding of Earth systems and global environmental change in service of society. Our work includes interdisciplinary research, education and outreach, and collaboration with resource managers and policy-makers. Together we strive to facilitate scientific discussion for the betterment of society and natural systems, while promoting practical solutions to the challenges of today's changing Earth systems.