To kick off his presidency, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, better known as AMLO, left Mexicans waiting at the gas pumps for up to seven hours after bungling a crackdown on oil theft. The effect on his popularity? Nada. AMLO emerged unscathed, with approval ratings now reaching 86 percent, according to some polls.

This must be good news for Mexico's 100-day old president, right? Maybe not. The country is ailing and an AMLO economic boost is nowhere in sight. Tough times approach. The International Monetary Fund has cut its 2019 growth forecast for Mexico from 2.5 percent to 2.1 percent, while Citibanamex bank lowered its projection to 1.4 percent.

Since taking office, AMLO's relationship with the private sector remains fraught. He quickly got to work undoing the country's two-decade, investor-friendly "Manufacturing Mexico" brand. In a mere 100 days, he canceled plans to build the much-needed and under-construction $13 billion new airport to serve Mexico City, suspended oil bids enacted by energy reform, and has sought to undermine independent regulatory agencies.

To watch where Mexico is heading, look carefully at four indicators.

1. Will AMLO stop spooking investors and shunning the free market? This is the world's 11th largest economy; the country's private sector is its main source of jobs and economic growth. With the large-scale social spending AMLO is planning to help Mexico's most vulnerable, he will need the private sector to keep the economy chugging.

2. Will AMLO's unusual bromance with President Donald Trump end? AMLO has intelligently avoided an open spat with the U.S. But, this marriage of convenience is bound to sour. The U.S. economy — Mexico's biggest export market — could soon slow, Congress could refuse to approve the new North American free trade agreement and Trump's re-election campaign could again target Mexico to rile up his base.

For now, AMLO's surprising willingness to adopt policies to help the Trump administration crack down on migrants seems alive and well. But a confrontation with the U.S. could lead to less cooperation on crucial issues ranging from trade to information-sharing on border security, transnational crime, and terrorism.

3. Will AMLO change his stance on Venezuela? His hands-off attitude is isolating Mexico from the rest of the region. Most notably, he has not joined other countries in recognizing opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's interim president.

His reticence tracks with old-school Mexican foreign policy of non-intervention. But while many see AMLO's lack of action as equivalent to Mexico joining Russia and China in support of Nicolas Maduro's bloody dictatorship, AMLO likes playing the ideological counter-balance to the region's center-right governments of Brazil, Colombia, Argentina and Chile. Refusing to play ball on Venezuela also gives AMLO a chance to say he's no lackey of the U.S.

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4. Will the new president continue to double down on the popular, personality-driven politics that have sustained his political career? Right now, his fiercely anti-establishment attitude plays well for approval ratings but bodes badly for a country with weak institutions.

For example, on the pressing issue of corruption, AMLO's grand plan boils down to asking Mexicans to trust him because he is not personally corrupt. That is hardly effective policy and opens the door to decisions that are popular but irrelevant — like selling the presidential plane. As former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Roberta Jacobson recently said in an interview on the global affairs podcast Altamar, "To the extent that AMLO continues to defend all of his actions and explain them as anti-corruption measures, they will be popular."

But corruption in Mexico is endemic and cannot be fought only by good example. New scandals will come to light and damage the government's reputation. Mexicans will become disillusioned with AMLO's inability to tackle the country's most important political issue. Disillusionment on the corruption front can quickly translate to disillusionment with democracy — we've seen it elsewhere.

AMLO has a clear mandate for change in a country that severely needs it. But for Mexico's long-term health, AMLO must make sure to wield his power for the better — not for what's popular.

Peter Schechter is the host and executive producer of the podcast Altamar and former founding director of the Atlantic Council's Latin America Center. He wrote this column for The Dallas Morning News.