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Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Turkey Plays High-Stakes Game Positioning Itself At Heart Of Arab World

Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been lauded in
Cairo for his bold stance against Israel – but just how far will he go?

By Ian Black

Turkey's PM, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, received a warm welcome in Cairo after he froze military and trade ties with Israel. Photograph: Mohamed Abd El Ghany/Reuters

Recep
Tayyip Erdogan's speeches in Cairo were excellent platforms for Turkey's
campaign to become a bigger player in the Middle East – against a backdrop of
the momentous changes of the Arab spring and a rare sense of movement in the
conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.

Rousing
cheers in Egypt reflect Ankara's strong stand against Israel, rupturing decades
of close alliance in favour of an openly critical position since last year's
bitter row over the Gaza aid flotilla killings.

Turkey's
quest for a robust regional role has emerged in recent years, along with a
sense of disappointment – if not surprise – that its long-standing ambitions to
join the EU have in effect been blocked by France and Germany, despite
remaining formally on the table.

Much
has been made of a "neo-Ottoman policy", under which modern Turkey
seeks to regain the influence it wielded in the glory days of the vast but
rickety empire it ran for four centuries, until it collapsed after the first
world war. But that's ancient history. Few young Arabs remember the Turks
hanging nationalist leaders in Damascus or fighting British-backed tribesmen
along the Hejaz railway.

Unlike
Iran, accused of playing the sectarian card in its alliances with armed Shia
groups in Iraq and Lebanon, Turkey looks like a sympathetic Sunni Muslim power
with an instinctive feel for the region. Bluntly, Turkey is admired largely
because it has been far bolder and more confrontational towards Israel than
most Arab states, starting with its outspoken response to the 2008 Israeli
offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Beyond
that, its political system looks like a useful model for Arab countries
emerging from decades of authoritarian rule. Erdogan's call for Egypt to
emulate Turkey's secular constitution was sensibly bracketed with a reminder
that secularism is not automatically against Islam.

From
Egypt, Erdogan goes on to Tunisia and Libya – thus far the three most
successful but unfinished examples of this year's uprisings – hoping to bolster
their transition processes and to promote trade and investment. The official
entourage includes six minsters and 200 business leaders, a reminder of
Turkey's dynamic economy: trade with the Middle East and North Africa was worth
$30bn last year and comprises 27% of exports.

For
all the excitement about a new departure, there may be limits to how far Turkey
will go. It has been very active over the Syrian crisis but has conspicuously
not joined western countries in calling for Bashar al-Assad to go.

Erdogan's
decision not to visit the Gaza Strip, despite earlier hints that he would,
suggests restraint in the face of likely anger from the US, Israel and the
Palestinian Authority, whose relations with the Islamists of Hamas remain
strained. Officials in Ankara have also been playing down a headline-grabbing
warning that Turkish warships would be prepared to escort the next Gaza-bound
aid flotillas, raising the alarming prospect of an armed clash with Israel on
the high seas.

For
some analysts the risk for Erdogan is that it will all prove too much for the
US and Turkey's other Nato partners. "Erdogan is a brilliant tactician and
has proven himself to be quite adept both at responding to events in the region
and seeking to influence their outcome," wrote Daniel Wagner in Foreign
Policy Journal. "He is playing a high-stakes game at a time when the
stakes could not be higher. One has to wonder whether his quest to become a
hero to the average man in the Arab street may ultimately backfire, and at what
cost? If the US has to choose between Turkey and Israel, it will naturally
choose Israel."

-This commentary was published in The Guardian on 13/09/2011-Ian Black is the Guardian's Middle East editor. In more than 25
years on the paper he has also been its European editor, diplomatic editor,
foreign leader writer and Middle East correspondent

About Me

I graduated from the French University in Beirut (St Joseph) specialising in Political and Economic Sciences. I started my working life in 1973 as a reporter and journalist for the pan-Arab magazine “Al-Hawadess” in Lebanon later becoming its Washington, D.C. correspondent. I subsequently moved to London in 1979 joining “Al-Majallah” magazine as its Deputy Managing Editor. In 1984 joined “Assayad” magazine in London initially as its Managing Editor and later as Editor-in-Chief. Following this, in 1990 I joined “Al-Wasat” magazine (part of the Dar-Al-Hayat Group) in London as a Managing Editor. In 2011 I became the Editor-In-Chief of Miraat el-Khaleej (Gulf Mirror). In July 2012 I became the Chairman of The Board of Asswak Al-Arab Publishing Ltd in UK and the Editor In Chief of its first Publication "Asswak Al-Arab" Magazine (Arab Markets Magazine) (www.asswak-alarab.com).

I have already authored five books. The first “The Tears of the Horizon” is a love story. The second “The Winter of Discontent in The Gulf” (1991) focuses on the first Gulf war sparked by Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait. His third book is entitled “Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: From Balfour Promise to Bush Declaration: The Complications and the Road to a Lasting Peace” (March 2008). The fourth book is titled “How Iran Plans to Fight America and Dominate the Middle East” (October 2008) And the fifth and the most recent is titled "JIHAD'S NEW HEARTLANDS: Why The West Has Failed To Contain Islamic Fundamentalism" (May 2011).

Furthermore, I wrote the memoirs of national security advisor to US President Ronald Reagan, Mr Robert McFarlane, serializing them in “Al-Wasat” magazine over 14 episodes in 1992.

Over the years, I have interviewed and met several world leaders such as American President Bill Clinton, British Prime Minister Margaret Thacher, Late King Hassan II of Morocco, Late King Hussein of Jordan,Tunisian President Zein El-Abedine Bin Ali, Lybian Leader Moammar Al-Quadhafi,President Amine Gemayel of Lebanon,late Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, Late Palestinian Chairman Yasser Arafat, Haitian President Jean Claude Duvalier, Late United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al Nahyan,Algerian President Shazli Bin Jdid, Jamaican Prime Minister Edward Siyagha and more...