Fareed Zakaria commentary: It’s not time to panic about education, yet

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Monday December 9, 2013 5:24 AM

The latest international student evaluations, the PISA test results, are out, and one thing is
clear: The United States has not done well. Beyond that, the exams have become, professor Jay
Greene points out, a Rorschach test. People read into them pretty much whatever they want. So Randi
Weingarten of the American Federation of Teachers announced that “none of the top-tier countries …
has a fixation on testing like the United States does.”

It’s difficult to see how one could come to this conclusion. The top four slots in all three
categories — math, reading and science — are taken by Shanghai (China), Singapore, Hong Kong,
Taiwan or Japan. They probably have the most test-centric systems in the world.

What’s more worrying is that this particular test, PISA, is not focused on rote memorization but
rather on the ability to use skills to solve real-world problems. In fact, American schoolchildren
do better in the other major international comparison, the TIMSS, which is a more traditional test
of the academic curriculum. Does this mean we’re teaching more by rote than do South Korea and
Japan?

If one can put ideology and vested interests aside, I think a fair-minded review of this survey,
as well as others, suggests that the United States has reason to be worried, though not
panicked.

Let’s be clear, general educational excellence is not the only ingredient to national success.
Diane Ravitch, a critic of educational reform, has pointed out that the United States has never
done very well on international tests, and yet, the American economy has done better than many
higher scoring countries. Why? Well, America benefits from an amazingly flexible free-market
economy, a tradition of invention and entrepreneurship, a dynamic society, talented immigrants and
a strong work ethic. Those strengths might outweigh poor test scores, on average.

In addition, there’s increasing evidence that it takes a small number of high achievers to
generate a great deal of economic vitality. Scholars Heiner Rindermann and James Thompson have
found that the performance of the top 5 percent (measured by IQ) in a country correlates strongly
with economic growth. Duke University’s Jonathan Wai argues that, because of its size, America’s
top 1 percent have a huge impact on the country’s trajectory.

America has done very well in harnessing the talents of its top 1 percent and in attracting the
top 1 percent from the rest of the world to live and work here. These are the engines of
innovation, growth and dynamism. But the country’s vast middle class — and below — has seen its
wages stagnate for three decades. And this is getting worse as technology and globalization depress
job prospects for people in the middle.

The real story of these tests has been “the rise of the rest.” The United States has muddled
along over the past few decades, showing little improvement or decline. Meanwhile countries like
South Korea and Singapore have skyrocketed to the top and now China, Vietnam and Poland are doing
astonishingly well. These countries have workers whose productivity levels have been rising in
tandem with their educational achievements. There are many reasons, but to put it simply, many of
these countries are playing to win.

President Barack Obama said this week that America’s greatest problem is its declining social
mobility. Americans are now less likely to move out of their income level than Canadians or
Europeans. Education is the single best way to rebuild that ladder of opportunity.

Almost all the research suggests that how much you spend does not predict your performance.
America spends a lot; many Asian countries spend much less. However, America has an unusually large
gap between its best and worst students. And it is unusual in that it devotes less money, attention
and energy on its most disadvantaged students. Most countries, certainly most high-performing
countries, devote greater resources and attention to poor children. Because education in America is
funded by local property taxes, the opposite dynamic is at work, which reinforces and exacerbates
problems of mobility.

It’s possible that the top 1 percent will be able to continue generating enough growth to keep
the country moving, but it’s more likely that the weight of a stagnant middle class will eventually
slow the economy down. More important, the politics of a country with a tiny productive elite and a
massive underclass with low skills, depressed wages and no prospects will not look pretty.