As Election Information Coordinator Megan Solomon watches, Rich Tisdale of San Francisco signs his vote-by-mail ballot that he is dropping off at an outdoor booth on Polk St. in front of City Hall in San Francisco, CA, Saturday May 31, 2014. less

As Election Information Coordinator Megan Solomon watches, Rich Tisdale of San Francisco signs his vote-by-mail ballot that he is dropping off at an outdoor booth on Polk St. in front of City Hall in San ... more

Photo: Michael Short, The Chronicle

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Rosalie Kingston of San Francisco fills out her ballot as early voting begins at City Hall on Saturday.

Rosalie Kingston of San Francisco fills out her ballot as early voting begins at City Hall on Saturday.

Photo: Michael Short, The Chronicle

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Junior clerk Russell Gammon sorts ballots in the audit room at City Hall in San Francisco as early voting opens Saturday.

Junior clerk Russell Gammon sorts ballots in the audit room at City Hall in San Francisco as early voting opens Saturday.

Photo: Michael Short, The Chronicle

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A sign points the way toward a polling place at S.F. City Hall. Despite San Francisco's reputation for hyperactive politics, participation in Tuesday's election is expected to be anemic.

A sign points the way toward a polling place at S.F. City Hall. Despite San Francisco's reputation for hyperactive politics, participation in Tuesday's election is expected to be anemic.

Photo: Michael Short, The Chronicle

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Lavon Taback of San Francisco fills out her ballot as early voting opens at City Hall in San Francisco, CA, Saturday May 31, 2014.

Lavon Taback of San Francisco fills out her ballot as early voting opens at City Hall in San Francisco, CA, Saturday May 31, 2014.

Photo: Michael Short, The Chronicle

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Karen Fullerton of Oakland joins other elections workers as they extract ballots from their envelopes in the basement of City Hall as early voting opens in San Francisco, CA, Saturday May 31, 2014.

Karen Fullerton of Oakland joins other elections workers as they extract ballots from their envelopes in the basement of City Hall as early voting opens in San Francisco, CA, Saturday May 31, 2014.

Photo: Michael Short, The Chronicle

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California election turnout could be 'embarrassingly low'

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Poll workers could be some of the loneliest people in California on Tuesday, with all signs pointing toward what could be the lowest primary election turnout in state history.

"There's very little awareness," said Joe Canciamilla, Contra Costa County's registrar of voters. "We're getting very few phone calls, very few questions, and not hearing anything to suggest there's a lot of interest.

"It's likely to be an embarrassingly low turnout."

Not that the number of folks casting ballots in past non-presidential primaries has been especially striking. Since 2000, California's turnout for primaries including the governor's race was 34.6 percent in 2002, 33.6 percent in 2006 and 33.3 percent in 2010.

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New low point?

The state's lowest primary turnout ever was 28.2 percent in 2008, when the presidential primary vote was moved to February and the vote on candidates for Congress and the Legislature was in June.

Even that dismal benchmark is in danger, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, which has been surveying California voters since 1947.

"Usually what drives turnout is interest in the election at the top of the ticket," he said. "But this year there's not much interest because (Gov. Jerry Brown) is facing relatively little-known opponents."

Tuesday's gubernatorial primary also will be the first in decades without a citizens' initiative on the ballot, thanks to a 2010 law that moved all initiatives and referendums to November general elections, when turnout is typically much higher.

Not much left

Without those very visible contests on the ballot, "there's nothing else to drive turnout except localized races, which historically don't have the same type of impact," DiCamillo said.

San Francisco has been no exception to the general voter malaise. While the early return of vote-by-mail ballots was running ahead of projections, it has now fallen to exactly where it was expected, said John Arntz, the city's elections chief.

On Friday, "we received about 4,000 mail ballots," he said. "Usually, we'd expect around 7,000."

Like most counties, election offices in San Francisco will be open for early voting Monday. Election workers will be outside City Hall from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. Monday and Tuesday to accept completed advance ballots.

Quick results

With the anticipated low turnout, those vote-by-mail ballots will play an even larger part in Tuesday's primary. Four years ago, 58 percent of the votes were cast by people who received their ballots in advance. This year, that number could exceed two-thirds of the final total.

The tension Tuesday night could be virtually over when counties release the results from their flood of early ballots, probably within an hour of the 8 p.m. close of voting. With so many ballots arriving by mail, there might not be enough votes cast at the polls to trim any early leads.

A low turnout in the primaries can have a major effect on voters' choices in the November election, said Eric McGhee, a research fellow with the Public Policy Institute of California. The voters most likely to cast ballots in a primary look very different from those voting in the fall, he said.

The voters in a primary election "are generally older, whiter and more established," he said. "They're more likely to be Republican."

Elections that skew older almost by definition shortchange ethnic voters, who tend to be younger.

The growing number of independent voters also plays a role in declining turnout, since "independents generally don't vote as often in primaries," McGhee said. "They're less motivated to show up."

By the numbers

The Field Poll projections of Tuesday's electorate reflect that research. While Democrats outnumber Republicans 42 to 28 percent in statewide registration, the pollsters expect that GOP voters will make up 37 percent of primary election voters. Non-Latino whites were 39 percent of California's population in 2012, but they are likely to make up three-quarters of Tuesday's voters. The state's 12 percent of adults who are 65 and older will provide 34 percent of the voters, according to the poll.

For county registrars, who prepare for the largest turnout possible, the prospect of holding an election where only a handful of voters show up can be daunting. But there's still plenty of work to do.

"Our numbers are picking up, but not by much," said Cynthia Cornejo, deputy registrar for Alameda County. "Hopefully, they'll get better in the last few days, with a lot of people showing up on election day."

Primary election

Polls will be open across the state from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Tuesday.

Ballots: Vote-by-mail ballots must be returned by 8 p.m. Tuesday to be counted. They can be dropped off early at county election offices or returned to any polling place in the voter's county on Tuesday.

Governor poll

California Gov. Jerry Brown heads into Tuesday's gubernatorial primary with a huge lead, while his top two Republican challengers have pulled into a dead heat, according to a poll released Sunday.

Fifty percent of likely voters say they will vote for the Democratic incumbent in the open primary, with 18 percent supporting GOP businessman Neel Kashkari and 13 percent favoring Assemblyman Tim Donnelly. The split between Kashkari and his fellow Republican is within the margin of error.

Kashkari, a former Treasury Department official making his first bid for elected office, had previously trailed Donnelly, a conservative Republican legislator from San Bernardino County.