“We can predict broad outlines, but we don’t know the ramifications,” the video says. “Information travels everywhere; anyone can access everything — the collective intelligence of humanity drives innovation in every direction while enabling new threats from super-empowered individuals with new domains, interconnecting faster than ever before. Unlimited combinations create unforeseen consequences.”

Blue Horizons: air, space, and cyberspace in 20 years

The last major internal study of the future, Air Force 2025, was done at Air University in 1996 where over 260 officers worked through the research that led to a multi-volume report outlining alternative futures and technologies required for those complicated and dangerous worlds.

The Blue Horizons study is designed to answer questions similar to those addressed in the Air Force 2025 study. These include: What are the emerging technologies that will shape the US Air Force and the conflict arena in which it must operate in 20 years in the future? What could air, space and cyberspace power look like 20 years in the future? Who will have access to emerging technologies that can make a difference? How soon will these important technological achievements become fielded systems?

Under their leadership, the students researched future systems and technological concepts working closely with subject matter experts from the Air Force Research Laboratory, the Defense Research Projects Agency, major universities and businesses, and other government laboratories and agencies. In addition to producing the reports posted here, the result was a cadre of officers conversant enough in critical areas of emerging technologies to ask critical questions and make assessments of systems in directed energy, biotechnology, nanotechnology and cyber technologies and what they mean for the future of the U.S. Air Force.

Blue Horizons 2007 was only the beginning of a series of annual long range vision studies which are known collectively as “Blue Horizons.” These annual studies serve as an input for the development of Title X wargames, Strategic Planning Guidance, Quadrennial Defense Review scenarios and the development of service requirements.

(Watch for our forthcoming blog post, “Billion Year Plan,” by one of the originators of the Blue Horizons project, USAF Lt. Col. Peter Garretson.)

Comments (79)

Such a well done video. The Scary side of the Singularity, which will be in the hands of humans, about 1.5 % of which are psychopaths – who are attracted to positions of power in corporations and government. Psychopaths are why we can’t take the cops off the corner, despite all these silly claims that corporations can be self-policing. Sure they can. But psychopaths, who are mostly quite charming and impossible to discern, are not self-policing.

It’s funny, there are many utopians who envisage a new age of peace and oneness, but the USAF don’t seem to envisage themselves as absent from that picture. There’s a lack of communication there somewhere, I’m sure.

I never really understood this message…the world can become more utopian in the future, that doesn’t necessarily a new form of the USAF will not exist…if technology will continue to remain a double-edged sword in the future, then, one way or another, we must continue to protect ourselves as tech grows exponentially.

I don’t understand at all how this shows that “techie types lack empathy”…if the point of this video was to express that we must continue to be vigil in the face of accelerating tech, then the USAF succeeded.

Looked like a pretty complete endorsement of Ray Kurzweil’s theories of the Law of Accelerating Returns by none other than the U.S. Air Force. They even picked the year 2035 to focus on…just ten years away from Kurzweil’s date for the Singularity. It’s getting harder and harder to accuse Mr. Kurzweil of being a crackpot!

Kurzweil has many fans, and a few self-proclaimed Singularitarians, among the CSAT students and faculty who produced the video. Far from crackpot, he’s considered an important voice and scholar in the debate.

In general, what caught my eye, is the fact the video clearly used exponential instead of linear thinking…it’s something Kurzweil always brought up when defending his projections and why he says other predictions failed.

So the fact that the USAF is using such a viewpoint, indeed, feels like are taking his advice.

The inflection point will be when the heuristic loop is closed, yielding strong AI. Imagine a malevolent individual in charge of strong AI. The hacking possibilities are as unimaginable as they would be disruptive.Homo sapiens could be the first species to commit technicide.

Would a strong AI still think in the same way as great apes minus lots of hair? Maybe he/she/it would keep inventing whole new categories and conceptualizations, and act on those.Or does not need to think in those abstract terms, but works with much more specific models.

From our perspective, strong AI itself could be the malovent individual.

I think existential risk is highly underestimated in the minds of the common (wo)man, simply because we obviously have no precedent case in which it actually happened (to us).And no other species we know of came even close of possesing the requisite technology necessary to be threatened by.

Just one more way humans are biased: If it did not happen it can’t happen.

I think existential risks to humanity are very much in the background because it’s never been a real issue until the nuclear age, and even then, nobody was actually crazy enough to use them for fear of destroying not just the enemy but yourself through mutually assured destruction. The moment a strong AI happens, humanity will have finally invented something that will be capable of competing not just on equal footing as us but greater. Not since we out-hunted/out-bred/bred-out/etc. the Neanderthals and Cro-Magnon and other human cousins have we faced such a prospect. The difference now is we can choose how to accept this strong AI – do we grant it full rights as any normal human? Or will we try to control it? I hope the former, because we’d have no chance of the latter and would only engender something akin to hostility worst case (best case would be pity as it transcends without us).

Indeed — Kurzweil’s main ideas on trying to make a ‘friendly’ AI is by trying to ensure that it adopts benevolent beliefs because their is nothing we can do, hardware-wise, that will ensure obedience…..your dog cannot manipulate you — a being of higher intelligent will always be superior to a weaker one, no matter what it does to control it.

So indeed, the best strategy according to him would be to strive for an environment that would at least put the odds in our favor to help ensure the AI fosters the values we want it too, like liberty, empathy tolerance, respect…..the same way a parent could try to raise their child in the best environment they can to at least try and steer the child away from the roads they don’t want it to go — their’s no guarentee, but it pays to try.

It’s not foolproof, but creating something vastly more powerful then us and then trying to constrain it may not give the best impression.

AI enhanced? Consciousness algorithms? I have seen braincells of rats flying model air planes.I wonder, what (ok, not, since those cells are not included) the rat-brain thought while flying mindlessly around?

I consider it likely that as the world begins to burst at its seams, Mom Nature’s “software”, especially that related to human reproduction, will overwhelm the ability of human technology, hardware and software, to control the masses, their emotions, and events arising from the emotions of the masses. Perhaps some consideration ought to be given by the military to dealing more directly with those currents, and not merely staying on top of technology used to suppress, regulate, and control.

If it ever became true that “Everybody can access everything” then wouldn’t that usher in an Age of No Secrets? When anyone can know whatever anyone else is doing then crime as such would be impossible except for an individuals random act of violence. When everyone everywhere knows the plans of the United States Air Force then those plans are rendered impotent. The crime of war finally averted.

I think they were saying that access to info is almost free and anyone will a cell phone can access the world’s info through google, etc.. schools may become free for online classes (degree still costs money, but the info is free). I think maybe you took that comment a bit too literally

Assuming that they haven’t made the jump to autonomous AI yet, then this video was envisioned and produced by humans. Just people with some intent. In that case, maybe we should try to get those people who produced this video to show their faces at the Singularity Summit and open thmeselves up for public critique. Just a thought.

I feel we aim too much for “peace” and not enough for “harmony”. “Peace” can mean no war, violence, conflict, even no disruptive activity by others, no competitive zero-sum game. In a world with more than one independent entity, there will always be conflict and disruption. These lead to evolution, but death is the ultimate peace. “Harmony” suggest cooperative action between multiple entities, the non-zero-sum game. We need a better balance of both goals.

It is only PR and nothing more, here is something more serious, an interesting insight into the noise level of Russian nuclear submarines; from Hotel and Yankee class (1960s) to Delta IV and Akula class (1980s), you can see it in Table A2:http://www.armscontrol.ru/subs/snf/snf03222.htm
So a noise level of a submarine is measured in decibels and it is presented in logarithmic scale; Hotel class was the first Russian nuclear submarine armed with ballistic missiles and it was commissioned in 1960; Delta I class was commissioned in 1972 class was 10 times quieter than Hotel class; Typhoon and Delta IV were commissioned in 1981 and 1984 and they were about 10 times quieter than Delta I class and about 100 times quieter than Hotel class.
And those were all SSBN submarines (with ballistic missiles), for example Akula class SSN submarine (SSN stands for attack submarines that are not armed with ballistic missiles but only with torpedoes and cruise missiles) is 10 times quieter than Typhoon and Delta IV and about 1000 times quieter than Hotel SSBN submarines and Yankee SSN class submarines from the 1960s.
And here in Table A3 you can see estimates of the maximum detection range of Russian submarines with the most advanced American navy sonars:http://www.fas.org/spp/eprint/snf03222.htm
Hotel class (658) and Yankee class (667 A) – 100 km (in shallow water)
Delta I class (667 B) – 60 km
Typhoon class (941) – 20 km
Delta IV class (667 BDRM) – 15 km
the newest class, Borei class (SSBN yr. 2000) – less than 5 km

And exactly the same is true for American, British and French nuclear submarines, so key shipbuilding technology for nuclear submarines was growing exponentially rather than linearly from the 1960s to 2000s, it is clearly visible if you look at the data of the reduced noise levels measured in decibels and detection ranges of Russian nuclear submarines from the 1960s (Hotel class) to 2000s (Borei class)
:)

As long as it is a peace involving freedom of thought, communication and movement and the basic needs of health, education and shelter are met.

The future envisioned by this video could be one of peace, or one of a dystopian technocracy where people’s only value is as commodities if they are assigned any value at all in a world where the bulk of their labor is no longer required.

Let us not lose our cynicism? Remember that eaters overeat, drinkers overdrink, lovers suffocate one another, religionists imprison, haters self-destroy, sellers oversell, buyers overbuy, advertisers pander, you name it, so is it any surprise that warriors live to go to war? There is no such thing as a war criminal here in the Empire, which must Strike Back and Strike Back first…apologies to the Star Wars folks.

You are right. As long as we are “human” conflict will exist for a simple reason: individuals have conflicting goals, prejudices and pleasures. There is a dark side to humanity along with all the good and unless that is somehow erased or controlled (hopefully not by the State), conflict will always be waiting. The best we can do is isolate the psychopaths and sociopaths.

Genghis Kahn had an unusual allele on his Y chromosome. When they looked for it in the countries that he conquered they found a high percentage of the population had his allele. He sowed his wild oats all over the place. Aggression was instrumental in our rise to the top of the natural world. It certainly keeps us on our toes. In Jane Goodall’s work she found that it wasn’t the strongest ape that won. It as the one who was best at inlisting the aid of others. Alexander the great knew these lessons well. He challenged all his peers to competition in every endeavor, but in victory over them he also made sure he was a good friend to each and everyone of them. When they would go into battle, Alex would lead. His underlings would do anything to protect him and so with his bravery the spearhead charges would poke through enemy lines and take out the leaders that controlled the forces against him. Once he had conquered a land, he would use his power to uplift the people. It got to the point where the enemy would rather be conquered by him than fight him. To achieve any goal in society, whether to run a country or corporation, it is always best to have the will of the people behind you. The more you do for them, the more they do for you. All people admire prowess, but prowess with just ego falls flat. Altering peoples thoughts is like a battle of wills. You have to spearhead charges that will touch a persons perspective. They are as you have said, propaganda. Joyless great genius was in his ability to spearhead charges that changed the peoples perspective. He used propaganda to spread his message. It touched the soul of the German people and made them reach into themselves to find there inner greatness. They achieved miraculous things because they would do anything to help him achieve there goals. His failure was in not doing the same to the people he conquered. They banded together and by their own propaganda brought out the greatness in their people. They unified made their own glorious leaders and vanquished him. If he spread good will and betterment to the people he vanquished, had not over extended himself and had not made certain ethnic groups scape goats in need of extermination, the war would have turned out quite differently. The conflicts of competition force us to form social bonds that make us stronger as we evolve.

Yeah.He just could have given independence to the Ukrainians (who were genocided by Stalin).Several hundred thousand red army soldiers would have schwitched sides, along with a complete underground government for that part of the SU.But sadly, the incompetence of France and Britain (they didn’t see the strategic inflection point) made him think he’s just a genius, and can decide everything according to his inspiration.So he refused their offer.

But that was only one of many mistakes.For example he could have taken the British army at Dunkirk, and his fat airforce leader should have stopped schwitching targets, finishing first the radars then the rest (or vice versa).The UK would probably have given in.

Another thing is he has been persuaded by a spy (!) not to ally with Spain.

Some years ago I played this “grande strategie” game called Hoi2 with a right wing friend of mine (my friends have very differing political opinions, since I mostly don’t care) against some guys he found on the internet (other right wingers, from their respective countries, always alluded me how they could cooperate without arguing,prbly for their “greater good”).

I was already familiar with this kind of games.Anyway, I named my marines militia and bombed his ships.He pulled them back and I landed with the “militia” (some players guard their coast with militia) in Cardiff.

Needless to say, by the time I attacked the soviet union (same year, 1940) the UK player had left, England, Scotland and Irland were my puppets and guarding their beaches against the remnants of the UK.
Their respective airforce helped send communism to hell^^

So, games are just models, abstractions, but I think you have very good thoughts about what to do with the vanquished, as long as public opinion in your country actually allows to do these things, and they don’t run counter to what you want to achieve (the Nazies wanted to Germanize the slavs in their annexed territories).

Btw: Even if Genghis was exceptionally agressive because of genetics, I have no doubt that does not mean we can”t be agressive without them.

I’d call that quote an out and out lie and it really makes sinister what would otherwise be a fairly benign, futurist advertisement for the Air Force and its mission. As far as ‘rethinking conflict’, I guess they probably mean cyberdefenses, more autonomous and semiautonomous war machines, more subtle and powerful surveillance and information manipulation. This is really just a video showing that the Airforce “gets it” as far as where technology is heading and is a recruitment video to be part of the cool, technical future of people working in that branch of the armed services.

Kind of funny they mentioned Stuxnet, which is our baby (and Israel). The code is now being cloned by everyone. It’s even worse than germ warfare, which is discouraged not for humanitarian reasons, but because the germs can come back on you.

Exactly. I thought it farcical how the video implied that individuals becoming empowered with information. Sure, because the massive amounts of information Wikileaks has uncovered over the years on various governments, banks, churches and other organizations and institutions was freely available for all to see. It’s so ridiculous. How far up do they figure people’s heads are buried? I guess pretty far.

Agreed, WikiLeaks is not the enemy. This definition from Thomas L Friedman is the oldest reference I could find to SUPER-EMPOWERED INDIVIDUALS… “So you have today not only a superpower, not only Supermarkets, but, as I will also demonstrate later in the book, you have Super-empowered individuals. Some of these Super-empowered individuals are quite angry, some of them quite wonderful – but all of them are now able to act directly on the world stage without the traditional mediation of governments, corporations or any other public or private institutions.”http://www.thomaslfriedman.com/bookshelf/the-lexus-and-the-olive-tree/excerpt-chapter-1

We’ve always had super-empowered individuals. They’ve enabled the killing or starvation of tens of millions – legally. I think they mean individuals who get power without the sanction of government or major corporations. Can’t have that. Naughty, naughty.

Sorry for being dense. I reread your understatement and it was as clear as understatement can be without hearing a British voice pronouncing it. Have an astounding, exciting day of adventure and discovery. ;)