Abstract

This report examines the possible evolution of emissions of primary particulate matter in Europe up to 2020 as a consequence of further economic development and progressing implementation of emission control legislation, in particular of the Protocols that also influence primary emissions of PM. Furthermore, it explores the potential for further PM emission reductions through extensions of the existing protocols (i) to additional countries, (ii) by stricter emission limit values, and (iii) to other sectors.

Based on the implementation of the RAINS model as it was used for the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) program of the European Commission, the report analyses three emission control cases: (i) the situation in the year 2000, (ii) the current legislation case for 2020, and (iii) a case with further control measures.

Results are presented for three groups of countries: (i) the 15 old Member States of the European Union, Norway and Switzerland, (ii) the 10 new Member States, and (iii) the other countries in Europe including the European area of Russia and Turkey.

The analysis concludes that primary emissions of PM are expected to decline in the future due to current legislation, between 2000 and 2020 by approx. 40-45 percent in the EU-25 and by 8-9 percent in the non-EU countries. Tightened emission limit values in a potential revision of the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols would have a relatively small effect on total PM emissions in 2020, especially if the protocols would not receive ratifications from additional Parties. In the EU-25, PM2.5 emissions would decline in 2020 at maximum by an additional 7 percent if the most advanced technical measures were implemented.

A significantly larger reduction potential could be harvested through ratification and subsequent implementation of the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols by additional Parties. This could reduce PM2.5 emissions in the non-EU countries by up to 25 percent in 2020 compared to the current legislation situation.

While the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols contain obligations for PM emissions from certain emission sources, in 2020 the majority of PM emissions is expected to originate from sources for which these protocols do not specify emission limit values. For the EU-25, about 80 percent of the identified technical potential for further PM reductions emerges from sources that are not covered in the Protocols. In the non-EU countries, more than 60 percent of the technical reduction potential relates to these sources. Approximately two thirds of this technical reduction potential from the non-protocol sectors emerge from small non-industrial combustion sources, especially wood and coal stoves.