16 responses to “WHAT MIGHT BE THE CLASS WAR TOP TEN TARGET SEATS ?”

At this stage I reckon it’s more a question of where will you get the most publicity. What will the media find shocking or funny? Any free press will work wonders going forward. After all, Class War doesn’t have a £2 million quid war chest for campaign materials. So somebody else needs to pay. With that in mind it might be worth focusing on high profile, safe seats where there’s a significant, dissenting minority and the media are hungry for a David and Goliath narrative. Nick Clegg’s seat, for instance…?

Both 4 and 7 might provide people willing to help the campaign, but I would say forget them as main target markets for votes. Going head to head with Respect is probably not a good idea either. But then maybe it is. What the fuck do I know?? Looking at the list and thinking ‘momentum’, I reckon 5 might be the big one. Look for falling turnout? Possibly also 6. Dunno! Forget 8, 12, and probably 2. Merry Christmas!🙂

Contrary to the above I suspect that Non-Voters Last Time Round are more likely to vote for CW than Labour voters; as people who bothered to vote for Brown last time are much more likely to stay with Labour than to defect to anyone else next time, especially if it continues to look like Labour has more than a vague chance of getting rid of Cameron and forming the next government.

It’s the “angry” (or indeed the “lazy, can’t be bothered”) non-voters who are most likely to vote CW. Why should they bother voting for the rest?

I agree, Dagmar. I just split Non-Voters Last Time Round into 3 groups.

People who were on the electoral register last time round but chose not to vote could be the big CW target market.

Those who were over 18 and unregistered, and who are still unregistered – a lot of people – probably shouldn’t be targeted in a big way. To target them, CW would have to run a voter registration campaign, which would be out of keeping with the main message and would waste resources. (Except possibly in some areas? Local knowledge required.)

As for those who were unregistered last time because they were under 18, I think possibly they could be a target market too. What other party talks about how successive governments have got more and more young people into more and more debt?

But back to the people who were registered last time and didn’t vote. The key seats could be where there was a big fall in turnout in 2010, from Labour to abstention. Does someone know which seats come onto that list? Not a big fall in turnout since the 1980s, but a big fall in 2010. Then from that group of seats, pick out the ones where the cunt who won in 2010, supported by say 20% of the electorate, is standing for re-election in 2015. Make it personal and force the cunt to respond to CW.

a) Against high profile candidates who have made themselves unpopular
b) In strange marginal seats where students might swing the result EG Ceredigian. Certainly make it an interesting punt at the bookies!
c) Across regions but focusing on places where locals have been priced out the housing markets EG London and the SE and where rampant corruption by Labour has made everyone voter apathy high EG most cities
d) Against the leaders of the main political parties. (see a)
e) in seats where you think hustings will take place
Good luck!!

There’s a whole host of other questions wrapped up in these two questions, as I’m sure you’ve realised. I’m going to address it as if you asked where CW would get most votes, and/or would get most publicity. And I’m going to ignore some really important stuff that could render all my comments meaningless.

The most marginal seats would be ones that would likely generate most advance publicity, just because CW would look like a factor in the eventual result. If the incumbent is well-known, that would also help. On either basis Glenda Jackson’s seat in Hampstead and Kilburn is priority. Take 42 votes off Labour and CW is front page news. Similarly, George Eustice’s place in Camborne and Redruth is at risk – 66 votes for badgers kicks him out. You’ve got other candidates in London – Hendon is also very marginal, and Offord votes against gay rights. Find 106 gay-friendly Tory voters to listen to CW for half a second and you’ve landed him in shit.

If a tag-team campaigned in Sheffield Hallam and Sheffield Central the media momentum from fighting Clegg could well claim a Labour victim down the road.

Likewise, another Oxfordshire seat (Oxford West and Abingdon) would gain from the organisation fighting Cameron in Witney.

Cardiff North is also marginal enough to be worth a pop. Sherwood (is there a candidate already?) is marginal and – thanks to Robin Hood – would be a absolute gift in terms of publicity.

Beyond this you’re into 200+ margin territory, and (I reckon) it stops being useful looking at the majority.

Options:
(1) Every seat which has a Bullingdon Club member as an MP
(2) Several adjacent seats in a clearly defined geographical area – to maximise impact of campaigning
(3) Wild cards – like NE Cambridgeshire where there is a lot of rural poverty
(4) Very safe seats where the ruling party is complacent and never has any real opposition
(5) Against particular candidates with a ‘nasty’ reputation

I don’t think it matters to much about swinging small numbers one way or another,with UKIP’s rise and an unpredictable LIbdem vote there’s going to be a lot of unpredictability. Better to go for what creates the biggest ruckus provides a focus for pent up anger.and creates the nucleii for a larger movement.

One other thing to take into account is that there will be a lot of council elections at the same time as the general election in 2015. It would make a lot of sense to think about standing council candidates in the same areas as the parliamentary candidates.

It might also be worth a dummy run in a couple of councils somewhere during the 2014 council elections – stir up some interest and put down a marker or two in the area and even pick up some support.

Low turnout in 2010 is more important than marginality. If Labour won a seat with 20% of the electorate in 2010 and the Liberals came second with 7%, that might be easier to win than one where Labour got 35% and the Liberals 34%. People can say it’s not about winning, but being in with a chance of winning is what will make the most news. News about disaffection in the population anyway – not just a group of political militants interrupting something.

Some more on turnout…

The 5% of seats with the lowest turnout in 2010 (info from here) are as follows:

I thought the aim was not to win seats, but to use the election as a platform for stirring things up and encouraging people to organise and take things into their own hands..

…in which case some of the more technical strategies listed above are nonsense; the real questions are: where will Class War resonate most? and which local battles (eg against well-known wrong’uns) will resonate most nationally?

Hull has low turnout but still a majority of over 10,000 for the labour MPs, It’s a very stagnant place where the BNP get more votes than the Greens.
I’d love to see the labour members deposed but it’s not going to happen for a good while yet.