Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 190851
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2005
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR CLEARLY INDICATES UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WITH ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE ORE
COAST. SW UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE CO INTO SCNTRL KS. MODERATELY STRONG
MID LEVEL JET / 60-65 KT/ WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER SYSTEM. AT THE
SFC...COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SWD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE
WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED ACROSS ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE.
...ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE/S PLAINS...
MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY BE ABOVE 25 PERCENT TODAY WHICH
WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
APPROACH OF UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED MID/UPPER WIND SPEEDS
WILL HELP STEEPEN LAPSE RATES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SFC DEWPOINTS WILL FALL
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES NEAR DRYLINE AND ZONE OF DEEPER MIXING. THE TOP
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NEAR 700MB AND WITHIN THIS
LAYER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
LIKELY.
..TAYLOR.. 10/19/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 190852
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2005
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL ACROSS THE CONUS ON THU.
SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SE KS BY EARLY THU
MORNING AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY WITHIN
MODERATE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD
FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON THU. INITIAL SFC COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER INTO NCNTRL AR BY
EARLY THU EVENING. IN THE WEST...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SYSTEM IN THE ERN PACIFIC.
..TAYLOR.. 10/19/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...