Iraq hit with worst wave of violence in five years as sectarian tensions threaten to prompt civil war

A ten-year-old boy out swimming with friends was one of four people killed when a mortar landed near the Tigris River about 95-kilometres north of Baghdad on Monday.

Almost every day in Iraq brings reports of exploding cars, suicide bombings and shellings that kill dozens. The country is experiencing the worst wave of violence in five years, with some 2,800 people killed since April, and growing fears that sectarian tensions between Sunnis and Shiites could plunge the country into civil war.

“The Iraqi government is increasingly relying on the security forces to maintain control over the country,” said Maria Fantappie who studies Iraq for the International Crisis Group and lives in Baghdad.

“The Sunni population within Iraq does not feel represented within the Baghdad central government.”

Ms. Fantiappe said a reliable census has never been done, but estimates are that between 20 and 40 percent of the population are Sunni. While Prime Minister Nour al-Maliki is a Shiite, Parliament Speaker Osama Al-Nujaifi is a Sunni, and Maliki’s deputy, Roj Nuri Shawis, is Kurdish. About 17 percent of the population are Kurdish, and are fighting for a separate state in northern Iraq.

“There are more and more fears of the return of the sectarian violence because attacks have targeted both Sunnis and Shiites,” Ms. Fantiappe said. “On the social level, there is more and more mistrust among the different communities.”

The growing tensions come more than two years after the final American troops left Iraq, having been deployed there for eight years. Many in Iraq are questioning whether the country today is any better off than it was before the U.S. invasion, or under long-time dictator Saddam Hussein.

“It is worse now than when the Americans were here,” said Nabil Mohammed, a professor of international relations at Baghdad University. “People can’t say that things are getting better or are going to be better in the near future. People are just looking for something to help them survive.”

In April, provincial elections were held, with 8,000 candidates vying for 378 seats. But the campaign was marred by widespread violence, including the assassinations of fourteen of the candidates, most of them Sunnis. Al-Qaeda’s Islamic State of Iraq faction claimed responsibility for bombings that swept through Shiite areas.

Since then, the level of violence has continued to increase. Since the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan last week, almost every day has brought new attacks.

The spike in violence comes as the conflict in Iraq’s neighbour Syria, with which it shares a 600-kilometre long border, grinds on, stoking fear that the situation there will destabilize Iraq. Iraq, for instance, has been a corridor for transferring weapons from Iran to the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. In a recent interview, Iraq’s foreign minister said that while the country is staying neutral with regard to Syria’s civil war, it cannot prevent Iran from using Iraqi airspace despite warnings from the United States not to allow it.

As well, most of Iraq’s Shiite Muslim political parties have close ties to Iran.

Despite the political tensions, Iraq’s economy, fueled by oil exports, is expanding. Growth this year is expected to be about nine percent, and the banking giant Citigroup recently announced it will open a new bank in Iraq later this year. Iraq’s debt is about $10 billion, compared with $23 billion for neighboring Jordan, which has a much smaller economy.

National elections are scheduled for March of next year. Analysts say they see little hope that there could be a political solution to the sectarian violence.

“Some people say an independent party could bring all the parties together to find a solution and get out of this situation,” Nabil Mohammed said. “But I doubt that anybody alone can do this. Everyone must work together to negotiate the problems.”

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