Mayweather-Maidana Predictions

Maidana shocked the world when he beat Broner. Can he shock the world a second time?

There’s no bigger fight this year than “The Moment,” Saturday’s superfight at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas between Floyd Mayweather and Marcos Maidana…

Hoopla surrounds the big fights and there’s no bigger fight this year than “The Moment,” Saturday’s superfight at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas between Floyd Mayweather and Marcos Maidana. Anything can happen when the bell rings, but can Maidana, who shocked the world when he beat Adrien Broner, shock the world a second time and defeat Mayweather? Unless there’s something in the Argentine water (from which Lucas Matthysse, among others, drinks), it looks, at least on paper, as if Mayweather will be too quick, too slick, and worlds more clever than his hard-hitting but somewhat plodding opponent. This is how the Boxing.com writers see Mayweather vs. Maidana.

Daniel Attias: “Forty-five have tried and 45 have failed. Floyd Mayweather Jr. is an enigma, a man who despite the flash and bravado, has more than backed up his talk in the ring. It’s a common theme for many, myself included, to think, hope even, that his next opponent is the one to finally debunk the myth that he is in fact infallible, yet in the back of my mind I always feel that Floyd will come out on top. He is that good. Marcos Maidana is a tough, rugged fighter and his win over Adrien Broner last December will no doubt have many thinking he is the man to beat Mayweather with his all-out attack, punishing body punching and devastating overhand rights but the fact of the matter is, Floyd Mayweather is the kind of fighter who analyzes his prospective opponents long before he signs on to fight them. If he’s fighting Maidana, then he feels he can neutralize those previously mentioned weapons that the Argentine brings. There should be a few early moments for Maidana as he will look to take the fight to Floyd but ‘Money’ Mayweather will take his streak to 46 wins from 46 fights with another slick, defensive performance and a wide points decision victory.”

J. Fredrick Baptiste: “I couldn’t be happier for Marcos Maidana. There are few better feel good stories in boxing than his. This is his big chance and I don’t doubt he will engage it as it’s been his tradition in fights past. That said, he is contending with the Michael Jordan of prize fighting and at least on paper, El Chino has absolutely no chance of winning this fight. Yes, he’s tough. Yes, he hits hard. Many of the 45 fighters who’ve stood in the ring with Mayweather have been tough and powerful as well, fighters far and exceedingly more equipped in their skill level than Marcos Maidana. Granted, no fighter is invincible and one punch can equalize a whole host of skills. But, alas this is the Sweet Science and at least for now, it has no better practitioner than Floyd Mayweather Jr. I predict a sound unanimous decision for his Moneyness.”

Adam Berlin: “I believe Marcos Maidana believes he’ll break Floyd Mayweather’s unbeaten streak. But all the will in the world won’t dent Mayweather’s superlative arsenal or strong mind. To have a shot at Mayweather you need to be fast and you need to be busy, which is why Money May opted to face Maidana instead of Amir Khan for this, his forty-sixth fight. Floyd will do what Floyd does best. He’ll keep out of harm’s way, avoiding the Argentine’s wide haymakers (the punches that touched Broner will never touch Mayweather). He’ll land his patented pot-shot right hand. And he’ll quickly build up points. Mix in a slight size and reach advantage, and you have the formula for a long, hard night for Marcos Maidana, who may hit the canvas a few times on the way to a wide points loss.”

Teron Briggs: “Marcus Maidana isn’t the same limited brawler that lost to Amir Khan in 2010 when he seemingly didn’t know how to throw a straight jab, or certainly more than one or two at a time. He’s not only addressed his crude technique, but also his defensive flaws, by hiring topnotch trainer Robert Garcia. The adjustments Garcia has made with Maidana were evident in his win over Broner as he fought one of his most complete fights as a professional. Unfortunately for him that won’t matter when he faces the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet. Unless Mayweather isn’t the same guy who completely schooled Canelo Alvarez in September of last year, Maidana’s pedestrian jab won’t be able to trouble him, like it did Broner. His heavy power shots that he’s used to knockout 31 opponents won’t be able to find their mark on the best defensive fighter in the game and his newfound defensive skills will be easily deciphered by Mayweather. You’ve heard this before, but Mayweather by unanimous decision. 11 rounds to 1.”

Jay Bulger: “Maidana is one of the busiest fighters Mayweather has faced in some time. His awkward angles might even find their mark; but they won’t take Mayweather out. Mayweather wins lopsided decision.”

Mike Casey: “Floyd has protected that precious ‘0’ on his record by way of prudent matchmaking and admirable talent that surpasses that of any of his contemporaries. He’s played it very well these past 17 years, if disappointingly so to most of us who reasonably expect our champions to be more active and more adventurous. The pity of it all, when he is finally done, is that we will never really know just how good he was or whether he would have won a super fight between equally matched titans. He might well have squeezed past Pacquiao when both were at their best, but that duel will only ever be a fantasy fight now. In the meantime, I expect Mayweather to move his log to 46-0 against Marcos Maidana at the MGM Grand by unanimous decision or a surgical and bloody TKO. I admire Maidana for his tenacity and perseverance and the Broner win was a stirring upset that got us all talking. But Marcos has lost to Amir Khan and Devon Alexander and those results might be a more accurate yardstick of what is going to happen this Saturday night.”

George Thomas Clark: “I was struggling to explain how Floyd Mayweather will decision Marcos Maidana when I saw, posted on this website, an email from Mayweather to Maidana sent after the latter had written he was going to get inside and bust up the Money man. Mayweather responded: ‘I knew that’s what you were thinking and that’s what you’ve got to think even though it’s delusional. You’re not going to be banging my body because every time you get close enough to try I’ll pop you with overhand rights. Seriously, I’m worried about your head, but I’m not holding back. You step into the ring with Floyd Mayweather, you get carved by an artist who doesn’t like people in his studio. You’ll barely touch me. Floyd’s the one who does the touching. I doubt you’ll win more than two or three rounds. Canelo Alvarez didn’t, and he’s bigger and better than you. If I didn’t think that, we wouldn’t be fighting.’”

Jill Diamond: “Despite a good punch and a dreamer’s determination I don’t see Maidana dominating the seasoned Mayweather. I pick Mayweather.”

Mohummad Humza Elahi: “Mayweather wins by UD. By any stretch of the imagination, Maidana can only give the pound-for-pound king a few interesting puzzles to solve before wilting in frustration. Having said that, I believe the only way El Chino has a shot is to throw deliberately mistimed punches to try and catch Floyd off-guard, use his footwork to create space and opportunities and have several, interchangeable gameplans to keep his opponent thinking. Result aside, I just want to see a good fight and I hope Maidana has enough will to make that happen and secretly, I want him to win; I think we all do but not so we can engage in some cathartic schadenfreude. Floyd losing breaks his negotiating ability and with three contractual fights left, it could make the next 18 months a pugilist fan’s wet dream come true.”

Fight Film Collector: “It’s a stretch to regard this match as a challenge for Mayweather, but until he loses a fight, Floyd will be allowed to write his own ticket. A Maidana-Broner rematch would have been more exciting. It would have been good for boxing, fan approved, and depending on the result, would have offered Broner a genuine chance at redemption, or otherwise seal Maidana as title worthy. But Floyd saw Broner’s loss as an opportunity for himself. Maidana’s victory dared to soil the Mayweather brand by beating a stylistic protégé. It also gave Floyd an excuse to avoid other, more problematic challengers, in this case Amir Khan. In an effort defend his self image, Mayweather may attempt a more clinical fight than usual, but who knows, he may actually bring it to Maidana, just to set the record straight. However, if Mayweather decides that Maidana is a fight risk, then we might as well log off and watch Dancing with The Stars. As for Maidana, pressuring Floyd into a standoff will fail as that strategy always does with Mayweather. You can put Floyd into a phone booth and he still won’t stand and trade. He’s not and never will be that kind of fighter. He has too many defensive options to call on. Floyd is not a conventional boxer, and after 40-something victories, conventional strategies clearly don’t work with him. But Floyd’s own strategies are all on the table. His primary tactics, though smart, crafty and rule bending, come down to less than a dozen key moves that he applies as needed, and as each referee has allowed. If Maidana is going to have any success, he better have schooled up some answers if he expects to execute his own. By accident or by plan, Maidana did touch on some possible tactics in his success against Broner. By mocking and embarrassing Broner as Maidana did, he took away some of the theatrics that Broner, and Floyd, rely on. If Floyd has a soft spot, it’s his ego. For example, I refer to the following fights where the favorite won, but was upstaged by the underdog: Ali-Young, Leonard-Eklund, and even upset as in Barrera-Hamed. Maidana has a winger’s chance, but that’s a long shot against a guy that’s extremely hard to tag cleanly. Maidana has long arms with a wrecking ball attack. The best wingers, including Foreman, Shavers and Baer, as well as swarmers like Armstrong and Frazier, were all but impossible to drive back once they had momentum. That’s what happened to Broner, who just got overwhelmed. But Maidana doesn’t have the work rate to fluster Floyd. And Maidana will likely be wasting his energy by going after Floyd early.He doesn’t have the hand speed or footwork to get Floyd in trouble while the champion is still fresh. Floyd’s vulnerabilities, other than overconfidence, will be age factors, like fading stamina, which no athlete can train away forever. Floyd spends more energy than he lets on. Making his fights look easy is part of his success. Floyd’s late fight coasting in recent years has been passed off as his confidence in victory, but I don’t buy it. Call it coasting if you want, but Floyd looked tired near the end of the Canelo fight. If Maidana is able to remain strong and not get discouraged, he may have hope in the later rounds, but that’s a long way to go. But upsets happen, and most often with complacent champions who believe themselves to be invincible. It would be the shakeup that boxing needs.”

Clarence George: “Mayweather protects his ‘0’ with the same zeal Church martyrs of old protected their virginity. But he won’t even come all over faint when confronted by Maidana, who has about a 0.01% chance of finding the key to Floyd’s diamond-encrusted chastity belt. I like the Argentine, especially since he schooled the repugnant Adrien Broner, but what can such a limited fighter do against perhaps the greatest defensive technician since Willie Pep? Damn all, that’s what he can do. He’ll exhaust himself in a futile attempt to catapult his boulders across the Mayweather moat, and will find himself stopped by eighth-round TKO.”

Christian Giudice: “The shoulder roll. The shiftiness that is so integral to his defense to offset pressure. The mind games that he inserts at will. It’s nearly impossible to bet against a guy like Floyd Mayweather Jr. who has so few, if any flaws. Mayweather has so many tools in his repertoire that there’s no style that he hasn’t prepared for, encountered, and mastered so many times before. There’s the boxer-puncher. The slickster. The hard-hitting young prospect. Even the past-his-prime brawler. No matter what age, experience or skill level the fighter, no one can figure him out. When facing a southpaw, Mayweather will land a vicious straight right so accurately that the fighter slowly begins to show a refusal to engage more each round. A talented fighter relying on constant aggression may have success for one or two rounds, but will eventually begin to run into a jab and then pure exhaustion as Mayweather takes advantage with his speed on the outside, and short hooks to the body on the inside (because of his deceiving strength) as well. Try to wait and catch Mayweather in the late rounds? Good luck, it is the most difficult task in the sport. He has a rock-solid chin and the most effective defensive shifts in the sport. Each time a fighter approaches him against the ropes, Mayweather so deftly shifts to his left or right that it forces the opponent to reset and waste energy. By that point in the fight, the fighter has succumbed to the inevitable fact – Mayweather has taken over. What’s so impressive is that in the process, Mayweather is not running or avoiding his opponent, instead he is just landing and leaving the scene. That being said, Marcos Maidana is coming off a fabulous win against a fighter in Adrien Broner, a Mayweather copycat. Yet, Broner proved to be a poor replica of the real thing. Minus the shoulder roll, Broner revealed no Mayweather attributes, and did nothing to prepare Maidana for the force he is about to encounter. Although Maidana may have the power and the pressure to give the crowd fleeting moments of excitement, he doesn’t possess the speed (to match Floyd), the foot movement (to stay with Floyd), or the defensive skills (to offset Floyd) that Mayweather has strategized for in the past. In other words, it’s nothing new. Although the early rounds will be exciting, Maidana will slowly fall into Floyd’s spell and lose a one-sided decision where Mayweather even hurts him in several rounds. Who’s next?”

Norman Marcus: “Just another sparring session for Mayweather here. Maidana is tough and can take a punch. But he is a plodder who comes right at you. Mayweather will dance in and out. Throw fast combinations and put on a wonderful exhibition for students of the sport. Of course The Wild Bull of the Pampas might get lucky and catch him with a shot, to turn the fight in his favor but I doubt it. I would much rather see Bernard Hopkins come down in weight and take on Mayweather, as he has talked about recently. The master against the grasshopper! My prediction here? Mayweather over Maidana in a UD. Save your money fight fans!”

Gordon Marino: “I’m picking Mayweather by a KO somewhere between the 6th and 8th rounds. Maidana will not be able to cut off the ring on Floyd. Also, he is not going to be able to connect much with that overhand right. Floyd is going to nail him coming in with the hook and with that right uppercut and straight right off the ropes. The only way that I could see ‘Chino’ pulling off an upset would be if Mayweather, wanting a dramatic knockout, decided to stay in the pocket and duke it out. Then something surprising could happen.”

Matt McGrain: “12-zip, Mayweather.”

Richard Mendel: “I love that Maidana is a warrior with unquestionable heart. In the past, as crazy as Floyd Mayweather can get, when he is called upon (the Cotto fight) he does dig down deep and fights hard. He is burdened with a ton of talent, and I sort of like it when handwork breaks talent’s heart, but I don’t think that will happen this time around. But then again I’m wrong a lot more than I care to admit.”

Ezra Salkin: “Adrien Broner is not Floyd Mayweather. Marcos Maidana was able to prevail against Broner for a few reasons: Broner’s inexperience, the fact that he was naturally smaller than Maidana, and Broner is an ass and likely took El Chino lightly. He’ll have none of these advantages in his favor against Floyd, though he will have age on his side. However, I feel size is the determining factor here. Maidana’s key to defeating Broner was the fact he was able to bully him around. Floyd is too big for that, so I expect a one-sided beatdown by Mayweather. Perhaps he’ll actually earn the late stoppage here, likely the result of focus to the body. Maidana will likely have a couple of points taken away for rule infractions along the way as well.”

G.E. Simons: “Marcos Maidana likes to have a fight. Some men do. Be it on the terraces at a football game because someone looked at them wrong. On a crowded night train because someone looked at them wrong. Or in a bar because someone looked at them wrong… Luckily Maidana restricts his fighting to the legitimacy of a boxing ring where he is really good at it. What he’s not quite so good at is boxing. His opponent on Saturday night, Floyd Mayweather Jr. is very, very good at boxing. He is also very, very good at fighting when he wants to. So when ‘The Moment’ comes amongst the pulsing atmosphere of the MGM Grand, Floyd will emerge from it with a shutout majority win by frustrating Maidana’s fighting proficiencies and exploiting his boxing deficiencies for 12 masterful rounds.”

Ted Spoon: “Mayweather is going to read Maidana like a 3+ children’s book. The only question we should ask, albeit with little hope, is will Floyd press his advantages, extend his combinations, or remain insipidly content daubing away with that crusty paint brush of his. Floyd isn’t an artist in the purest sense. He doesn’t let himself go. His compositions are simple, brilliantly executed, but simple. Those lead rights and body jabs, once sweet, are more nifty. Marcos represents a target not unlike Gatti so lil’ Floyd should at least try to light him up once all hope has perished; if not (and that is the safe bet) then look for the public to treat our pound-for-pound king’s legacy like a piñata. Again.”

Jeff Weston: “After his defeat to Khan in December 2010, Maidana was asked the trifling and predictable question ‘Do you want a rematch?’ The reply from Maidana (which was translated) said much about the man: ‘I want to fight with whoever.’ A tough Argentinean, his performance against Broner made up for the poor showing versus Alexander. Mayweather is a bridge too far, however. UD after 12 unless Eva Peron appears at ringside.”

Peter Wood: “Maidana will give it his best shot, but he will resemble plodding George Chuvalo fighting speedy Muhammad Ali. Mayweather will win a lopsided decision….Mayweather and Adrien Broner next?”

Jarrett Zook: “Marcos Maidana is an entertaining hard-punching brawler. That being said he has absolutely no chance against Floyd Mayweather. For most of his career Maidana has fought at light welterweight. Mayweather has convincingly beaten power punchers who are much bigger than Maidana throughout the last eight years of his career. Not only that, but Maidana was thoroughly out boxed by Devon Alexander two years ago. If Alexander was able to school Maidana just imagine what Floyd will do. Therefore, I see Floyd winning by shutout decision or perhaps late round stoppage. Maidana has heart and he won’t stop trying, but heart can’t beat Money.”

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Great fight, good hard fought win for Mayweather…...Maidana showed a lot of resolve but landed next to nothing after round 6.

I see the Showtime commentators scores were ridiculously close….as Maidana won zero in the 2nd half, so that was puzzling. If Maidana had actually landed some punches like he did in the first half he may have put himself in the position to eke a decision but all the good bullrush moves do not a fight win.

This freak, who has the pink slips for 88 friggin’ cars, is at 2% body fat for the weigh in….Maidana at least 5 to10%.....this is not his fight and neither is Pacquiao, Thurman or Hopkins. He’s the same size as Golovkin (oh yes he is), in fact he would have the reach advantage…..that’s a PPV that even I would pay to see.

I have no idea if he or his dung is arrogant or not, you seem to know about these sorts of things, but the guy is a great boxer & consummate professional.

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On another tack, one of the pundits is pulling the readers chain by suggesting Mayweather sidestepped Khan to take this fight. Sure Khan has the tools to trouble Mayweather, for a time, but the last I looked he is 2-2 from his last 4 and basically played himself out of a shot against Mayweather…..aside from having zero defense, his offense notwithstanding, and looking increasingly shaky against even moderately powerful punching. Maidana on the other hand has done the exact opposite & is fully deserving of this matchup.

For some inexplicable reason I’m amped for this fight….....or perhaps it is explainable, considering Maidana is such an unflappable guy. He will come to fight; will not be discouraged for much of the duration of the scheduled distance; and those wide hard to see roundhouse shots he regularly knocks guys over with have me feeling a bit leery as someone who usually pulls for Mayweather (no pun intended….urk!).

Still, for the reason that Mayweather looked in, even more than usual, phenomenal shape at the weigh-in I will say he wins by increasingly dominant UD or, dare I say it, possibly even a late-round KO.

why watch a very boring boxer? he’s too much hyped and yet he can’t even deliver knockouts? he shows “good defense” by rolling shoulders? this is a sign of an amateurish boxing stance! he seems too afraid to get hit..probably he pays all advertisers and marketing consultants fortunes just too put him in a make-believe pedestal. i don’t even care if he loses!

ted - last ko was hatton. and the difference wasn’t that hatton was an inferior opponent or too small at 147 - the reason floyd was able to ko hatton is that the hitman is the only opponent who has continued to try to dominate floyd despite get absolutely battered with counter hooks and lead right hands. guerrero, cotto, canelo and mosley all, after becoming disillusioned by the pin point accuracy and seemingly clairvoyant counter punches stopped pushing the fight. we know floyd is far too disciplined to ever chase an opponent for the ko - especially too smart to ignore one of boxing’s great tenets re: “never chase a puncher”.
so if maidana tries for the ko from the first bell on ward he has both his only chance of winning and his only chance of being knocked out.
the biggest threat to floyd is the judges, as he suffers from the same malaise as pacman - and that is that their past deeds have set such a high standard that anything less than a dominant round in given to his opponent

I just watched the Khan fight and Soto Karras yesterday.. He really has one-punch explosive power. Should he connect, he becomes a mugger and goes for the kill like he is on the Discovery Channel. He is really a beast, but he DOES get hit an awful lot.

I don’t expect any miracles here, but Chino is dirtier than Ortiz and knows all the tricks. I want to see how Floyd reacts to hitting behind the head and kidney shots. Could be interesting. I really think the first two rounds will be very exciting but then….....maybe zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

‘The Moment’ will not be ‘Momentous.’ This will be one of the most highly paid sparring sessions FMJ will ever be involved in. It will go 12 however, but that’s only cause Chino won’t stop trying. Shutout UD win for FMJ.

Surprisingly early trouble from Maidana as he bull rushes Floyd and backs him up and maybe even roughs him up in the first two rounds, but once Mayweather gets into his rhythm and figures out his opponent, he should be able to use his lead rights and sharp counter to control the action, I don’t see this as an easy outing for the Champ as there are intangible distractions. Meanwhile, the Argentinian seems focused and primed.

You have one guy celebrating the birth of a new child while the other guys is…...well, I won’t go there, but it could be a distraction.

Mayweather by a closer than expected UD and I would not be shocked if he got decked in this one.