Tuesday, February 16, 2010

The comments section of this site is going to have to find another bubble team to complain about. Virginia Tech's not only off the bubble, they're a single digit seed. The Hokies dominated in the second half against Wake Forest on Tuesday night, scoring 55 points en route to an 87-83 upset of the previously red-hot and newly-ranked Demon Deacons. Malcolm Delaney scored 31 points for Virginia Tech in the win, which moved them into second place in the ACC at 8-3. Al-FarouqAminu scored 21 first half points for Wake, which led 40-32 at the break, but he scored just four points in the second half. The win is obviously gigantic for Virginia Tech's tourney resume, as it now gives them a second Top 50 win and puts them in great shape to finish 11-5 in conference. Even with a loss at Duke this weekend, the Hokies will be at least an 8 seed next week, and they will likely be ahead of Clemson and Georgia Tech in terms of seeding. (Remember two and a half weeks ago when we said this was going to happen...?)

If Mississippi State fails to make the tournament, they will look back at tonight's loss to Kentucky and kick themselves. The Bulldogs had a chance to extend their winning streak over the Wildcats to four games in front of a record home crowd, but instead squandered a seven point lead with three minutes to play and ended up losing 81-75 in OT. The loss drops the Bulldogs to an unimpressive 6-5 in conference, but they do have a relatively easy schedule remaining (at LSU, Alabama, at South Carolina, at Auburn, Tennessee). If they get to 10-6, with a win over the Vols, they will still be in good shape for a bid as long as they win a game in the SEC tourney. Anything less than that would be dangerous, since all they have OOC is a win over Old Dominion to go along with a few questionable losses. Assuming they beat LSU, they will be one of our last teams in or out this weekend, and their ultimate fate will depend on what their fellow bubble teams do.

We know it's the work of just a few idiots, but between the dozens of harassing (and allegedly racist) voicemails and texts sent to DeMarcus Cousins in the days leading up to the game and the water bottle throwing to end the game (you stay classy, Starkville), it's safe to say that Bulldog Nation could brush up a little on its sportsmanship before its next home game.

BTW, how great was Cousins' "call me" sign to the crowd after one of his dunks in the first half? A very nice comeback, indeed.

The biggest bubble battle of the night took place in the Big East, and it was South Florida who came out with a huge 65-57 win over Cincinnati at home. Dominique Jones (who else?) scored 26 points to lead the Bulls, who for the moment are now the front-runners for the Big East's eighth bid. They still have a lot of work to do to secure an at-large, but their schedule isn't all that tough the rest of the way (save a road game at Villanova next week.) The Bulls play St. John's at home on Saturday, and after the 'Nova game, they play Providence at home, at DePaul, and at home against UConn. That game against the Huskies on March 6 might be a bubble-bursting game for the loser, while the winner would likely head into the Big East tournament needing just two wins to feel good about their chances at an at-large. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is now tied with USF in conference at 6-7, but their remaining schedule is brutal, and they'll be lucky to finish 8-10.

Of note: Michigan State won at Indiana; Baylor beat Texas Tech at home (LaceDarius Dunn scored 30 points for the Bears); Georgia Tech beat North Carolina at home; Northern Iowa beat Creighton at home; Old Dominion beat Towson at home; Northeastern won at UNC-Wilmington; William & Mary won at George Mason; San Diego State won at TCU; Murray State beat SE Missouri State at home; Stony Brook won at UMBC; Princeton won at Penn.

With a few minutes left to go in the game we were preparing a paragraph on how great the crowd was with the alternating red and white shirt sections and how their rush was worth the fine. Now all there is to talk about is the bottle throwing.

William & Mary's win over George Mason is big and they are slowly creeping back into the at-large mix. They have won 4 in a row and their OOC wins just keep looking better and better. A big problem for them is that they still may only finish in 3rd place in conference and that they have already lost twice to ODU. So it's really hard to imagine scenarios in which they get an at-large. Unless ODU collapses, they will be ahead of W&M on the bubble. So if W&M wants to get an at-large they need to hope for ODU to win the conference tourney, but that would likely mean the Monarchs beat them for a third time.

What could really get interesting is if ODU and W&M finish 2nd and 3rd and meet in the semi's. If W&M wins but then losses in the final it would be a very tough call between the two.

first of all if W&M gets an at large bid I might just have to give up on college basketball....has anyone taken a look at their SOS?? If you cant find a way to win that weak conference you honestly dont deserve to make the dance. Sorry...but do you honestly think they can do any damage at all? As for Maryland and WF...there are scenarios (depending on the seed and how the bracket shapes up) where they could make a run. W&M is not Davidson, and Steph Curry doesn't play for them either.

it's time for all of the ACC haters to eat some crow...they are probably going to end up with at least 6 single digit seeds this year....duke, maryland, wake, va tech, gt, clemson, and fsu. oh, and they are tied for the most teams in from any one conference...put that mess of weak teams from the A10 in the ACC and they would all be lucky to get to .500

Obviously, Anonymous has never followed the CAA. Are you Billy Packer?

It's not an easy conference to win, and it's extremely difficult to win on the road.

On "If you cant find a way to win that weak conference you honestly dont deserve to make the dance" ... um, George Mason did not win the conference in 2006 and they made the Final Four. How soon we forget.

If the CAA wins 4 of 5 TV bracketbusters (incl. ODU's game), the pieces will continue to fall in place for the CAA to be a 2-bid league.

You can defend Virginia Tech til you are blue in the face. But it doesn't change the fact that they played a horrible OOC schedule. How about you just give the Hokies a 1 seed to reward them for playing cupcakes?

I agree with Paymon. The CAA has some strong teams and proved it with nice non-conference wins. The CAA would be very deserving of at least 2 bids. Sorry to ACC fans, but you will not get all 12 teams in. I think that teams like Maryland and Florida State would get a new appreciation for the CAA, if they would play them on the road.

The Wake-VT game was kind of a lose-lose situation for us seed-wise. If VT won, then Wake would seem overrated as a 3, and if Wake won, VT would get ripped for even being in the field. We admit that Wake was maxed out as a three, but we wouldn't be surprised to see them back up that high very soon given their overall resume. Next week, though, they'll probably be back to a 4.

James - How has VT not already gotten what they deserve? They are 21-4, 8-3 in the ACC, 2-2 against the T50 and 9-4 against the T100, and in most brackets are still between an 8-11 seed.

I'd say their weak OOC schedule has pretty much already been taken into account with their relatively low seeding. You can't just ban a team from postseason play because it turned out their schedule was weak - partially their fault, partially not - especially when they beat all of those weak teams.

sure, you're right....I'm sure the CAA is the same as it was when Mason went to the final four. You sure you wanna go there?? Really? Has any team been back since? NOPE. Has any team been there in recent memory before Mason did it? NOPE. Chalk that one up to a fluke run with a senior laden team. Oh and just for the record Davidson with Steph Curry (the year they lost to Kansas at the end) would have murdered Mason.

We'll eat some crow Gary when a team not named North Carolina actually makes it past the Sweet Sixteen. That hasn't happened now in 6 years despite the ACC always being ranked as the best or second best conference in RPI and getting a bunch of teams in with generous seeds.

the reason the CAA plays tough non-conference games is because their in-conference games would be cupcakes for the powerhouse teams. Think about it....would you rather play mason, northeastern, odu instead of Duke, UNC, Wake? Of course you would...it's not even close, look at the consistency of the big time programs...better coaches, better recruits, better teams. There is a reason why nobody from the A10 or the CAA goes to Cameron Indoor during the regular season

Dayton's problem has been the same for weeks now: they have the sixth best resume in a league that we think will max out at five bids. Looking ahead (which we do, remember, when we put together our bracket), the Flyers still have road games at Temple and at Richmond, which we don't see them winning given their recent road struggles. Losing those two games would mean Dayton would finish at best 10-6 in the A-10, which wouldn't be enough unless they made a deep run in the A-10 tourney.

Dayton's best hope for a bid is to go 5-1 down the stretch and hope that the two lowest A-10 seeds in our bracket - Charlotte and URI - fade down the stretch. Then the Flyers could sneak in as the A-10's fifth team.

The only reason Mississippi is still in our bracket (as a 13 seed) is their schedule for this week. With Vandy and Florida coming in, the Rebels have two huge chances to pick up the big SEC win they so desperately need.

Hey you guys do a great job with your bracket and I am sure you watch a lot of basketball games. I would be curious to know which bubble teams you think could do the most damage in the tournament as a 11-13 seed. I will go with Cornell, South Florida, any A-10 bubble team.

We like the teams you mentioned, and keep an eye on Utah State and Old Dominion too. Both have an impressive OOC win on their resume (BYU and Georgetown respectively) and each will prove a tough out for whoever they play in the first round (if they get in). If UConn finds a way to sneak into the field in the 10-12 range, they'd be the ultimate sleeper.

Virginia Tech's pre conference schedule was as embarrassment. Seth Greenberg should be ashamed of himself!! The Hokies should not get a high seed after feasting on cupcakes and ice cream bars in pre conference. Pathetic scheduling Seth!

Hey, I just wanted to point out that A 10 teams have gone to Cameron Indoor. I know Charlotte did this year, last year Rhode Island, and the year before that Temple did I believe. Rhode Island actually almost won last year, they only lost by 3. I think the reason Duke doesnt schedule games like that is because the ACC doesnt want to help any potential bubble teams that could steal bids from the ACC come March.

Georgia Tech is right now 6-6 in ACC. They have 4 games left (at MD and Clemson, home v BC and VT), and could very well lose 3 of the 4. Assuming that they do, and therefore end up 7-9 in ACC, are they still in?

OOC is nothing impressive -- best win = at Charlotte. Otherwise, just home wins over Siena and USC, neutral over G Mason. OOC losses are neutral ct loss to Dayton and away loss to Georgia.

Not really sure how they deserve an 8 seed at this point, but if they lose 3 of their 4, how much repair will they need to do in the ACC tourney to feel comfortable?

And anonymous, why would someone like Duke want to schedule a dangerous team like top A-10s?

They lose, they look like chumps. They win, and the reaction will be, "well they had better win over a mere A-10 team." It is a no-win situation for a team like Duke.

Although I would like to see the mid-major's get more of a shot, it is just reality that essentially all big BCS teams will schedule lots of home games ($$$$$) against teams that will not require a return visit (read: smaller teams willing to take a beating in exchange for a payday) and a few games against other BCS / big name schools. That way, if they lose, then it is at least against someone who can seem impressive and if they win, they get a free Big Dance ticket with even a mediocre in-conference record.

Are head-to-head matchups the only tie-breaker between bubble teams (i.e Dayton over Old Dominion, Charlotte over Louisville, UAB over Cincy) or those don't matter if you think the conference is stronger?

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