Wednesday, November 30, 2011

While the
Twins try to piecemeal together their once glorious bullpen that has now been
blown to smithereens, there is one player already on the roster who should help make the
late innings much less of an adventure.

If you separate out the data from Duensing’s match-ups
against same-sided opponents, you would see a pitcher with a tremendous track
record:

Duensing vs Left-Handed Hitters
(2009-11)

PAs

K%

BB%

GB%

Swg. Str%

2009

90

21.1%

6.7%

60%

24%

2010

153

22.2%

4.6%

53%

28%

2011

187

20.3%

3.2%

55%

23%

(via Fangraphs & Inside Edge)

Last season, Duensing held lefties to a .210 batting average
against, the 14th-lowest among qualified MLB starters last year.
What’s more is that Inside Edge’s video scouts found that lefties had a .103
well-hit average off of him – the best in baseball - meaning that nobody on the
left was able to put good wood on the ball.

He absolutely stunned them with his outstanding slider.
Against his slider, they had a .036 well-hit average (fourth best in baseball)
and routinely beat the ball into the ground (61%) for an easy conversion to an
out.

Meanwhile, his peripheral stat line against right-handed
opponents paints the picture of a much more ordinary and pedestrian hurler:

Duensing vs Right-Handed Hitters
(2009-11)

PAs

K%

BB%

GB%

Swg. Str%

2009

269

12.6%

9.3%

44%

17%

2010

382

11.5%

7.3%

52%

14%

2011

524

14.7%

8.8%

41%

18%

(via Fangraphs & Inside Edge)

Of course, we know the results in 2011 were not simply “pedestrian”,
they were an abomination. Thanks to righties teeing off on him, their .558
slugging percentage and their .329 batting average against him paced baseball.

Part of the reason for this barrage was due to his inability
to keep the ball down against righties – which
I pointed out back in August. Specifically, Duensing failed to his two main
pitches to righties down: his fastball and his changeup. His fastball, on
average, finished a little over an inch higher in the zone than it did in 2010.
His change, his favored secondary offering to righties, finished nearly two
inches higher on average in 2011 over the previous season. Because of this,
Duensing experienced a significant spike in the amount of square contact being
made. His line drive rate allowed to right-handers rose from 15.7% in 2010 to
22.2% last year.

To be honest, I have had troubles pinpointing what in his
delivery has caused this much fluctuation. Video wises, it is hard to pick up
on any major changes. Judging from pitch f/x data, however, it would appear
that he is dropping his arm angle slightly for his changeup. His average
release point on his changeup to righties in 2010 was several inches higher and
several inches closer towards first base. This may be an indication that he was
been lowering his arm slot when releasing his change thus having it remain up
in the zone rather than staying on top of it.

Interestingly enough, the video scouts at Inside Edge did not
feel that right-handers actually smashed the ball around off of him as much as
his the stats from the previous two paragraphs would indicate. According to
them, they concluded that righties had a .236 well-hit average off of him. It
was well above the league’s average but 17 other starters saw harder contact
including Tampa’s David Price and Arizona’s Ian Kennedy.

So here’s what we know: Duensing’s stuff is stupid good against
lefties. If he is limited to a higher portion of left-handed match-ups, as
would be the case if he had the luxury of being inserted into those prime situations
in a given ball game, he will likely succeed and put up very good numbers. We
also know now that he struggles mightily against right-handed opponents. Given
a higher pool of those opponents to face in 2011, overexposed Duensing was
battered continuously. Then again, he demonstrated in 2010 that when he was
able to locate his pitches properly, he was able to keep righties from
launching an extra base hit assault (52% groundball rate is not too shabby).

I tried to make it abundantly clear last
year heading into spring camp that his arsenal is best suited for relief.
Yes, he had some impressive outings in 2010 but that did not detract from the
fact that he would be substantially more effective among the relievers. Without
any outside additions or prospects ready to move him from the rotation, the
Twins decided to let their good fortune ride. His results in 2011 should more
or less solidify this fact in concrete: Duensing is made for the bullpen.

About OtB

"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."