In conversations with people in Beirut, and especially in the Christian areas to the city's north, I found great anxiety about an Israeli counterstrike against Lebanon. Hezbollah understands that the Lebanese have grown used to peace, and that they fear an Israeli attack; many Lebanese would hold Hezbollah responsible for the devastation caused by an Israeli attack.

Interesting background, thanks Postroad. There's a reference to a Part II of the article but I couldn't find it using the New Yorker search engine...posted by storybored at 10:18 AM on July 15, 2006

Very timely; thanks, Postroad.

Blanford, who has good sources in the Hezbollah leadership, said, "They seem to be convinced that sooner or later there's going to be an Israeli-Arab conflict. In the long term, Israel cannot put up with this threat from Hezbollah." It seems clear that in ordinary times Israel would already have moved against Hezbollah. But these are not ordinary times. Intelligence officials told me that Israel cannot act preëmptively against Hezbollah while America is trying to shore up Arab support for, or acquiescence in, a campaign to overthrow Saddam Hussein. To do otherwise would be to risk angering the Bush Administration, which needs Israel to show restraint. One Israeli Army officer I spoke to put it bluntly: "The day after the American attack, we can move."

Interesting background to y2karl's FPP post just after yours, Postroad. The number of interviews and the quality of the quotes included in your FPP article make it a really valuable piece for understanding the forces now playing out on the ground in Lebanon, and I hope more people take the time to read this than its length would argue actually will. sigh...

The problem with Americans understanding the Middle East is that the parties there never let go of anything. There is never a resolution, the war is never over, and no matter how many Crusades or jihads occur, the sand just keeps sopping up blood.posted by paulsc at 12:37 PM on July 15, 2006

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