09TBILISI168, GEORGIA: NON PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION CALLS FOR

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000168
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOVPHUMPRELGG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: NON PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION CALLS FOR
PRESIDENT'S OUSTER, AGAIN
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).
¶1. (C) Summary/Comment: The non-parliamentary opposition
announced and distributed its Declaration of Political
Parties and Civil Society Organizations of Georgia
(Declaration) which calls for President Saakashvili's
resignation; early presidential and parliamentary elections;
and the establishment of conditions for conducting free and
fair elections. Nineteen non-parliamentary leaders and ten
civil society leaders, including former Speaker Nino
Burjanadze, signed the Declaration. Notably absent from
signing were former Georgian Ambassador to the UN Irakli
Alasania, and former Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli;
however, according to the press, both "agreed" in principle
with the document (although Noghaideli is on record as
opposing new elections now). The Declaration leaves
unanswered what policies the group would pursue; whether
parliamentary or presidential elections would come first and
how either could be accomplished in a constitutional
framework; and how "free and fair" election conditions would
be established. The Declaration drew substantial media
coverage, but has drawn little notice from the public. In
our view, the Declaration amounts to a codification of the
non-parliamentary opposition's previous demands and
reinforces the view that about the only issue they can agree
on is their strong dislike of President Saakashvili. For the
most part, this Declaration which was to explain the
non-parliamentary agenda in detail and unite democratic
forces failed to deliver a coordinated, coherent plan. End
Summary/Comment.
Declaration Announced - Non-Parliamentary Opposition Ratchets
Up the Rhetoric
¶2. (SBU) The Declaration was announced on January 29 in
the Tbilisi Marriott to widespread media coverage. Imedi,
Rustavi, and Georgian Public Broadcasting showed clips of the
signing and interviews with various opposition leaders. The
weekly English language, Georgia Today had a front page photo
and caption. Virtually every Georgian newspaper had at least
a mention of the Declaration on the front page. David
Gamkrelidze (New Rights), Salome Zourabichvili (Georgia's
Way), and Eka Beselia (Movement for a United Georgia, aka
Okruashvili's party) were quoted extensively. Gamkrelidze
stated that "(t)oday one demand, one goal unites us - to get
rid of Saakashvili". Gamkrelidze continued saying that
"(t)hose who do not share our position will automatically be
enlisted to the governmental team. There is a certain
watershed, demarcation lines between the real opposition and
the rest of the political forces." Zourabichvili added that
"Saakashvili should resign and there is no longer any other
issue. If we do not achieve this no other issues will be
important because the country will no longer exist."
¶3. (C) The Declaration states that Saakashvili's
lawlessness and violence have driven Georgia to catastrophe,
and that each day he remains in power generates additional
problems for Georgia. It continues with the aforementioned
demands and says that it is a civic duty to immediately
effect regime change by constitutional means. The
Declaration calls on the public to secure free and democratic
development and unification. What is does not say is what
would constitute "constitutional" means or any legal
justification for holding new elections or demanding the
resignation of Saakashvili. Thea Gogvadze-Apfel, a
Burjanadze confidante, told Poloff that the Declaration, a
subject of discussion among the non-parliamentary opposition
Qsubject of discussion among the non-parliamentary opposition
for a period of months, represents the only level at which
the non-parliamentary opposition could agree. The harsh
rhetoric is also a clear call to fence sitters such as
Alasania, and Noghaideli that their equivocation is
increasingly irritating to the non-parliamentary crowd.
Opposition's Unity Moment Quickly Inundated by Reality
¶4. (C) The "unity" among non-parliamentary forces looks
thin, since they spent three months coalescing around a
document of minimalist non-parliamentary demands. In a
moment of clarity, Shalva Natelashvili (Labor Party leader)
said "I agree with the principles of the memorandum but I am
not signing it. I mean how many times can we sign one and
the same thing? We've been doing this since 2003."
Natelashvili went on to blast other non-parliamentary figures
saying "(i)t is unacceptable for me to sign the declaration,
as by signing it other opposition leaders may make me stand
next to Burjanadze or Noghaideli." Irakli Melashvili
(National Forum) said he did not sign the document because
the non-parliamentary opposition has no idea as to how it is
going to enforce its demands. Melashvili said "(w)e have
asked the opposition parties what they will do if Saakashvili
holds a new election. We have not received a clear answer
and that's why we have refused o sign this document."
TBILISI 00000168 002 OF 002
Parliamentary opposition MP Gia Tsagareishvili (Democratic &#x000A
;Party of Georgia) said opposition MPs were not consulted. He
continued saying "(i)f somebody does not want to see my face,
I am not interested in them. I am not going to go somewhere
to see them. Let them come, talk to us, tell us what they
want and we will answer them."
¶5. (C) Far from uniting the non-parliamentary opposition,
the Declaration only reinforces how disparate the
non-parliamentary group is. Nino Burjanadze did not attend
the signing preferring to travel to Davos, Switzerland for
meetings. Alasania expressed his general agreement with the
Declaration but refused to sign, prompting editorial pages
and non-parliamentary leaders alike to question where his
loyalties lie. In fact, the non-parliamentary opposition
could not agree on whether or when to hold protests.
Protests may be held in the spring but it remains unclear
which parties will participate. Natelashvili, whose Labor
Party formed a bulk of the protesters in November 2007, has
said he would not protest for the benefit of former GOG
officials such as Burjanadze, Alasania, and Noghaideli. At
the end of the day, the Declaration creates more questions
than it answers.
¶6. (C) Parliamentary Speaker David Bakradze lamented the
radicalization of political discourse. He was quoted as
saying "(u)nfortunately, part of the opposition sticks with a
radical stance. I think that instead of further
radicalization, the population today needs to see the
cooperation of different parties on vital issues, such as
overcoming the economic crisis and ensuring security in the
country." Bakradze also pointed out the inherent
contradiction in the non-parliamentary opposition demands,
questioning how one can call for both the reform of the
election code and immediate elections at the same time.
While the non-parliamentary opposition will continue to be a
thorn in the Government's side, the recent Declaration does
not suggest the non-parliamentary has found a way to pose a
true threat to Saakashvili or the UNM.
TEFFT

The information recorded on this site has been extracted from http://Wikileaks.org (Georgia) database..

We wish to express our gratitude to Julian Assange and his team for making this data available as it is an important public record.

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