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Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Does TCU Deserve to be Ranked over Baylor? (College Football)

The Horned Frogs have earned the spot as of now according to the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, but do they really deserve to play in the semifinal
with a loss to Baylor on its résumé?

I was recently posed this question following the Selection Committee's recent rankings and thought it would be a good idea to post my answer on here. Before I begin, I love Baylor and TCU but the numbers do not lie. In my opinion, rank should be based upon more than an overall record, such as strength of schedule and the way teams performed in wins and losses.

Well, let's begin:

TCU has a better record against common opponents:

The beauty of the current Big 12 setup is that each team plays every
other team, so when comparing résumés between Big 12 teams, you get
plenty of chances to compare performances.

Thus far, TCU and Baylor have
both played Oklahoma and West Virginia. Both teams got the best of the
Sooners, but in different ways. TCU played an undefeated, full-strength
Sooners squad at home and held on to a small lead late at home. Baylor
played Oklahoma without its best receiver, dominating the Sooners in Norman.
The Bears might have the advantage there, but the games against West Virginia
may be a better comparison. Both teams had to go to Morgantown, but
only TCU was able to come away with a victory on the road, winning on a
last-second field goal. The Bears were held from doing much against WVU
in a 41-27 loss.

TCU’s loss to Baylor is better than Baylor’s loss to West Virginia:

While Baylor has the head-to-head battle on TCU, that loss is
probably the best loss on any résumé in the country. If you look at it
as any random opponent and not a head-to-head matchup, TCU led for the
better part of three quarters over its opponent, mostly dominating while
on the road. That loss was a result of one bad quarter and came against
a top 10 opponent. Baylor’s loss, regardless of what TCU did against
West Virginia, came to a team that has three losses this season in a
game in which Baylor never seemed to have a chance to win after
halftime. If you take the head-to-head element out of it, TCU’s loss is
much more understandable and forgivable than Baylor’s.

TCU has a tougher out-of-conference schedule:

The schedules for these teams match up pretty well for a side-by-side
comparison. Both play a full nine-game Big 12 schedule against all the
same teams. They each convincingly beat an FCS opponent, with TCU
beating Samford 48-14 while Baylor beat Northwestern state 70-6. Both
teams had fun beating up SMU, as TCU won in Dallas 56-0 while the Bears
opened McLane Stadium with a 45-0 thrashing of the Mustangs.

The
difference in schedule comes in that last game. The Horned Frogs
scheduled a home-and-home with Jerry Kill’s Minnesota program that
started in Fort Worth this year and heads north in 2015. TCU didn’t have
much trouble in that one, shutting down the Golden Gophers in a 30-7
game in which Minnesota didn’t get on the board until the fourth
quarter. The Gophers have only made that TCU win look better as the
season continues by contending in the Big Ten West and compiling a 7-2
record thus far. Baylor’s answer? The Bears hit the road for a Friday
night matchup with Buffalo. The MAC (Mid-American Conference) team brought its best, but fell to
Baylor 63-21. The Bulls are a weak 5-6 this season and will need to win
its final game to become bowl eligible. These wins just don’t compare,
and rewarding Baylor for scheduling cake walks is not a good precedent for
the committee to set in the first year of this system.