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Thursday, 14 April 2016

Tories in crisis, EU in crisis - vote to Leave

On Thursday 23 June 2016, there will be a referendum on
UK membership of the European Union. Millions of voters will have a
straightforward In/Out choice. Most polls have indicated a victory for those
seeking to remain in the EU, though some have given a tiny lead for leaving the
EU.

It is the first such referendum since 1975, when those
wishing to retain British membership of what was then called the Common Market
- which Britain had joined just two years earlier - won around two thirds of
the votes. The Labour left, led by the likes of Tony Benn, was opposed to the
Common Market and played a very major role in the Leave campaign. Tory
Eurosceptics were fairly marginal, while racist arguments barely registered.

In 2016, the mainstream EU debate is dominated by the
Tories and involves two competing right-wing blocs. Labour is almost entirely
united in wanting to remain in the EU, a position also supported overwhelmingly
by Lib Dems, Greens and the SNP.

The EU has been through a process of progressive enlargement,
now consisting of 28 countries with a combined population of 510 million
people. No country has ever left the EU.

If Brexit is the outcome of June's
referendum, it will have profound repercussions for the EU as well as deepening
the existing crisis of Britain's Tory government. Tory MPs are split down the
middle and it is likely David Cameron would be forced to resign as prime
minister in the event of a defeat for Remain campaigners.

Divided Tories

Cameron made a pre-election promise to hold a referendum
by 2017. Since winning the May 2015 general election, he has been obliged to
deliver on his promise. He had originally wanted to placate Tory Eurosceptics
and stem the rise of hard-right party UKIP. He would rather get the referendum
out of the way, hoping to re-unite Tories after a Remain victory - but this is
likely to prove wishful thinking, with divisions persisting whatever the
referendum result.

Pressures within the Tory Party obliged Cameron to take
the remarkable, and highly risky, step of allowing a free vote, even for
cabinet members (giving them permission to campaign on either side in the
months before the vote). Several cabinet members are Leave supporters.

Division
over the EU has intersected with other tensions to generate an ongoing Tory
crisis, highlighted by Iain Duncan Smith's dramatic resignation as work and
pensions secretary and the furious speculation about the political future of
George Osborne, the beleaguered chancellor of the exchequer.

Cameron renegotiated the terms of UK membership of the EU
in early 2016. There was little substance to the deal, but it was wholly
reactionary; designed to win over a layer of Eurosceptics, it involved attacks
on migrants' rights and benefits. This undoubtedly failed - with around half of
Tory MPs backing the Leave position - and it means the nature of British EU
membership is even more draconian than before.

The Tory party is traditionally the loyal party of the
British ruling class. But there is a contradiction: the British ruling class is
overwhelmingly pro-EU, correctly recognising that it serves the interests of
broad swathes of British capitalism, while the Tory Party is profoundly split
on the issue.

A ruling class project

The EU and its forerunners have always been an elite
capitalist project, backed by the great majority of the wealthy and powerful.
From the 1950s onwards it became apparent that the UK couldn't rely on the old
empire - or the Commonwealth after the post-war wave of decolonisation - for
trade and business. Closer economic ties within Europe, especially with Germany
and France, were deemed good for business.

The dominant idea was that this should be combined with a
close trading and business relationship with the US - and of course an
exploitative relationship with the 'developing world', especially former
colonies. This was considered a crucial element in sustaining British standing
in the world.

Since the 1990s the EU has been explicitly committed to
the neoliberal doctrines pioneered by Margaret Thatcher in 1980s Britain. The
Maastricht Treaty of 1993 enshrined these in EU law, a process continued ever
since (including the Lisbon Treaty of 2009). The UK has been in the vanguard of
pushing neoliberalism - privatisation, deregulation, cuts - at European level.

Tory divisions over EU integration have continuously
flared since the early 1990s. Many Thatcherites perceived the EU as a barrier
to full-blooded neoliberal transformation. It epitomised, for them, a soft
'social compromise' model, a view encouraged by EU Commission President Jacques
Delors' speech to the TUC in 1988, which was characterised by (largely
illusory) promises of social protections.

There have also long been genuine differences of emphasis
inside the ruling class over international alliances, reflected in some Tory
politicians advocating a looser approach to Europe. Such politicians often
emphasise the relationship with the US as an alternative focus, or perhaps
stronger links with 'emerging markets' like China.

EU in crisis

This long-running conflict inside the Tory Party is now
being played out against the background of a deepening crisis of the EU itself.
There are three strands to the crisis.

Firstly there has been a set of tensions resulting from
economic crisis, since the Crash of 2008, accentuated by imbalances in the
Eurozone. The PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) - which tend to
be characterised as the 'periphery' in contrast to the 'core' (led by Germany)
- have suffered especially harshly. The crisis of the Eurozone has been the
basis for deep austerity programmes which have reduced working class living
standards. The EU has played an important part in all this, trampling over
democracy when necessary.

Secondly, there is the destruction of Greece's left-wing
government. The capitulation of the Syriza-led administration to the dictates
of European capitalism - with the EU in the vanguard of the attacks on the
Greek people and their elected government - represented the defeat of an
important attempt to break from austerity. This created a crisis of legitimacy
for the EU, leading to disgust at its anti-democratic savagery from many people
across the continent. It exposed any rhetoric about 'a family of nations', or
ideas about the EU being socially progressive, as a sick joke. The reality of
the EU was laid bare.

Thirdly, there is the refugee crisis. The EU's racist
'Fortress Europe' policy has led to thousands of desperate people drowning in
the Mediterranean in recent years. Fences are now going up in parts of Europe,
as countries squabble over how many (or how few) refugees they are willing to
offer sanctuary to. Strains between nations have intensified and racist
populism has increasingly been deployed by EU governments.

Vicious authoritarianism is the new normal. There is a
ramping up of domestic repression at the same time as efforts to keep refugees
out of Europe, despite the fact that a confederation of over 500 million people
could certainly absorb the numbers seeking refuge.

Brexit threat

The threat of Brexit is now another problem for the EU.
The withdrawal of such a major nation state will significantly weaken the whole
project.

The dominant pro-EU elements in the British political elite and ruling
class are engaged in Project Fear to avert that outcome. In this, they are
strongly supported by European elites and indeed also the US administration -
Barack Obama has warned that Brexit would damage the US-European relationship,
which is to some extent mediated through the UK.

For Cameron and his allies, EU membership remains a vital
element in sustaining the UK's economic, political and military standing in the
world. It is similar in this respect to Nato membership, Trident renewal,
participation in air strikes on Syria and the unity of the British state (as
opposed to Scottish independence). All of these things are, in their eyes, aspects
of British prestige and global standing. It was no surprise, for example, when
a list of former armed forces chiefs signed a letter urging voters to choose to
remain in the EU.

Much of the opposition to the European Union comes from
the political Right – both from one half of the Tory Party and from the
Tories-in-exile found in Ukip. But - as should be obvious from the sketch of
the political context above - there are also sound reasons for the left to
advocate leaving (and consequently weakening) the EU.

The EU is a profoundly undemocratic set of institutions
dominated by an unelected Commission, with a very weak and remote parliament.
It has for over two decades been central to the pushing of neoliberal policies
across the continent and, since 2008, has spearheaded often devastating cuts.
The EU and its constituent governments are key drivers of racist scapegoating.

For these reasons, socialists should vote to leave the EU
on 23 June.

A time of flux

The Labour Party continues to be dominated by pro-EU thinking, despite
the leftwards shift represented by Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership (and Corbyn’s own
reservations on this issue), though there is little enthusiasm for meekly
echoing Tory arguments and allying with Cameron. This has made it impossible to
build a mass, broad-based campaign for a leave vote, on a left-wing basis, but
it is still essential to communicate the facts and arguments.

At the time of writing, there is a mounting – and
seemingly intractable – crisis for the Tories. George Osborne’s budget was a disaster
and was swiftly followed by Iain Duncan Smith’s resignation from the cabinet
and a major climbdown on cuts to disability benefits. The tide of public
opinion has turned against austerity and the government’s proposals for forced
academy conversion have generated a fierce backlash from teachers, parents and
others. The crisis in the steel industry, with 40,000 jobs at risk, damaged the
Tories and the Panama Papers’ revelations have hit the prime minister
personally.

The Tories are in trouble – and it will get worse for
them if the referendum delivers a vote to leave the EU. Labour, led by Jeremy Corbyn
and John McDonnell, is now providing real opposition on many issues, while
protest movements challenge the Tories on the streets and the junior doctors’
strikes threaten to herald a revival of collective workplace resistance to
government attacks. The referendum takes place in a time of extraordinary flux
in both British and European politics.