ANALYSIS: President Donald Trump took to Twitter in September to call out Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., for opposing a Republican effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Trump cited rising costs in his tweet.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services released a report more than a year ago estimating health-care premiums and subsidies for 2017, so enrollees could get an idea of what costs would look like under the ACA.

The report, released Oct. 24, 2016, predicted premiums in Arizona would increase 116 percent, from $196 in 2016 to $422 in 2017.

Those estimated costs are for a 27-year-old purchasing a second-lowest-cost silver plan, one of the most popular on theACA marketplace.

The report shows a 27-year-old person on that plan would see the 116 percent increase Trump cited in his tweet, but according to Blue Cross Blue Shield of Arizona that doesn't reflect the average increase statewide.

The two insurers still selling plans through the state's exchange — Blue Cross Blue Shield of Arizona and Centene's Ambetter from Health Net — raised premiums by different amounts on average.

For plans sold on and off the exchange, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Arizona had an average premium increase of 51 percent, while Ambetter raised rates 74.5 percent in Maricopa County for 2017, according to Arizona Department of Insurance rate filings.

An expert with the Kaiser Family Foundation, a health policy organization, said these averages paint a "broad picture" of what consumers would pay for insurance purchased through the exchange.

"Some folks looking to compare premiums — especially if they’re particularly interested in premium increases year over year — will focus on average increases as reported by insurers in their filings," Rabah Kamal, a policy analyst with the organization, wrote in an email.

"These give a broad picture, not taking into account variables such as subsidies, age, or income, which all figure into how much a person actually pays for a plan."

Kamal said picking a specific age to compare premium prices "offers a pretty precise look at changes in premiums by location and over time."

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Both Blue Cross Blue Shield of Arizona and Ambetter would not say how many people in the state paid more than $400 for marketplace plans.

But some of last year's cost increases were eased through subsidies, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. Nearly 86 percent of Arizonans participating in the exchange used subsidies and were "not facing the premium hikes of last year," Kamal said.

On Oct. 30, HHS released predictions for premium increases in 2018.

The updated report predicts almost no increase — one dollar, from $424 to $425 — for a 27-year-old purchasing the second-lowest-cost silver premiums in Arizona.

(The 2016 and 2017 reports have different amounts for the 2017 monthly premium payment because one was an estimate and the other an actual figure.)

The new report's $425 figure for monthly premiums in 2018 is about 3.5 percent higher than the national average for premiums of $411.

A spokesman with the Arizona Department of Insurance said the agency doesn’t track what Arizona residents pay in premiums under the ACA.

BOTTOM LINE: The 116 percent increase Trump cited in his tweet was taken from a 2016 HHS report, which projected the average premium increase for a 27-year-old looking for a specific insurance plan. That means some on the exchange may have faced higher or lower premium increases. The average increase from the two companies selling insurance plans through the exchange in Arizona was significantly less. But the companies would not disclose how many people paid more than $400 per month (the dollar amount of the 116 percent increase) for premiums purchased on the exchange. Residents could have paid more or less than the report estimated.