Leading Indicators Down Sharply in May

Note: Technical problems
delayed the release of this report.

August
14, 2001 --The University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 1.3 percent
in May. The result was similar to April, with sharp
declines in consumer confidence, initial claims for
unemployment insurance, help wanted advertising, and
local stock prices did severe damage to the Index. Also
negative but to a lesser extent were building permits.
Once again, the outlook for the national economy was the
only positive component, as was the case in April.

The USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators
is published under the auspices of the School of
Business Administration's Real Estate Institute.
For more information about the Institute, please
visit its Website at http://realestate.sandiego.edu

Index of Leading Economic
IndicatorsThe index for San Diego County that
includes the components listed below (May)Source: University of San Diego

- 1.3 %

Building PermitsResidential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (May)Source: Construction Industry Research
Board

- 0.28%

Unemployment InsuranceInitial claims for unemployment insurance
in San Diego County, inverted (May)Source: Employment Development Department

Consumer ConfidenceAn index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (May)Source: San Diego Union-Tribune

- 3.03%

Help Wanted AdvertisingAn index of help wanted advertising in the
San Diego Union-Tribune (May)Source: Greater San Diego Chamber of
Commerce

- 1.73%

National EconomyIndex of Leading Economic Indicators (May)Source: The Conference Board

+ 0.82%

With Mays decrease, the USD Index of
Leading Economic Indicators has declined for four months in a
row, and has not advanced in a full year. The decline was broad,
with five of the six components down, as well as deep, with
significant losses in four of the down components. Interestingly,
the outlook for the national economy is moving in the opposite
direction, with the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators
registering its second straight advance.

For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of
Leading Economic Indicators, please contact: