Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Russians Must Stop Making Plans on Basis of Improbable Apocalyptic Predictions, Shelin Says

Paul
Goble

Staunton, May 17 – Both the Russian
government and the Russian people routinely make plans on the basis of possible
but highly unlikely apocalyptic outcomes, a pattern that keeps tensions high
and prevents them from addressing real and far more immediate problems,
according to Rosbalt commentator Sergey Shelin.

Indeed, there are indications that
Russian leaders routinely exploits this pattern to divert attention from
current problems, even though its efforts to get Russians to focus on low
probability disasters frequently has the effect of causing the leaders
themselves to lose focus on what is most critical.

In a new post in the wake of
predictions by some financial analysts that the ruble may fall from 60 to the
US dollar to 500 by 2019, Shelin argues that “the probability that ‘everything
will collapse,’ although not equal to zero is too small to be the basis for
choosing a strategy of survival” (rosbalt.ru/blogs/2017/05/16/1615544.html).

Such predictions, he says, may be
either inventions, something “possible but not very probable” or “a real danger
for which one must prepare.”Sometimes
the most disastrous things do happen, but instead of assuming that they will,
Russians should consider just how probable or improbable they are.

The ruble certainly could collapse
from 60 to 500 per US dollars, Shelin continues. Russia’s dependence on oil
hasn’t ended, its production is falling and the central bank may seek to weaken
the ruble, although its current leadership has said most recently that it won’t
do so (cbr.ru/ec_research/wps/analytic_note_06.pdf).

But unless all three things happened
at the same time or a worldwide economic crisis unexpectedly hit, it is
difficult to see that the ruble would collapse in the way that some are now suggesting
and even counting on, given that Russia’s fundamentals now are very much more
favorable than they were in 1998.

Most likely, Shelin says, the ruble
will slowly decline in value but not collapse as these apocalyptic predictions
would have it.There will always be
those who will make such predictions because they will get the most attention,
but it is a mistake for everyone else to ignore other evidence that suggest
such predictions are overblown.

Only if Russians do that, he
suggests, will they have the chance to focus on real problems and real
solutions rather than imaginary problems that almost by definition have no
solution short of some kind of deus ex
machina.