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After November: Answers From Matt Bai

By The New York Times August 11, 2010 12:54 pmAugust 11, 2010 12:54 pm

6:28 p.m. | Updated This week, Matt Bai, who writes our Political Times column, will be answering selected reader questions about what could be next for both Republicans and Democrats.

Following is the first set of responses from Mr. Bai. Have a question? Please submit it as a comment. Questions will be answered throughout the week.

Q.

Could a GOP gain in this election cycle actually help Obama in Washington? If voters sends even a small handful of additional Republicans to Congress, won’t they have to start acting like legislators? And wouldn’t that give Obama a pathway to the Bipartisan Utopia he’s been seeking?— Posted by M

A.

Yes, I do think there’s something to that, and I wrote it in the magazine several months ago in an essay called “Tyranny of the Majorities.” It’s also the subject of my Political Times column this week. So M, maybe next time I’m on vacation, you can fill in. But you might need to use your name.

Q.

Why is everybody referring to the Colorado result as the victory of an “incumbent” bucking the anti-incumbency tide? Michael Bennet has never stood for election once before this primary and spent his career as a manager for businesses and public bodies; Andrew Romanoff has been an elected public official a number of times. Bennet’s win was another repudiation of someone identified in the public mind as a politician, was it not?— Posted by Donald Denver

A.

Donald Denver (if that IS your real name….), I think you’re onto something here. I doubt Senator Bennet impresses anyone as a stodgy old incumbent, having never run before (and not being terribly polished at it). I too think we may be oversimplifying if we see this as some kind of victory for incumbency. Alas, the Committee on Conventional Wisdom often fails to call me before issuing its proclamations.

A.

What would be the reaction of Democrats if the Republicans proposed spending $26 billion for teachers in Texas, Arizona and Mississippi, paid in part by reducing food stamp benefits for the poor?— Posted by Tony

A.

This is a trick question, right?

Q.

Speaking of Palin, for Matt Bai, what is her realistic influence on races where she gives an endorsement? Does it help or hurt? Or is it meaningless? Thanks.— Posted by Trillian

A.

I wish I knew. I suspect it generates some enthusiasm for the candidate among the kind of very conservative, very reliable Republican voters who matter in a primary. But it’s probably not decisive. No endorsement is.

Q.

In the past, you have written about Obama’s efforts to win over white men. How do you evaluate the success of those efforts now when Gallup shows Obama’s approval rating among whites at 38% in July 2010?— Posted by Augustine 25

A.

I have, and it’s a good question. I’d evaluate that success as very fleeting. The numbers show the independent white men, particularly older ones, have deserted Mr. Obama en mass. Why? Probably they gave him a chance as a protest against the Bush era, and they don’t like his ideological tilt. But the numbers also show that the president retains a lot of good feeling among the electorate, which means the damage there may not be irreversible.

Q.

First and foremost–isn’t it a little premature to predict what the political landscape in Washington will look like in November–four months out?

Secondly, what is the basis for stating that it “…is certain (Obama will) face a very different political landscape in Washington” after November?— Posted by Don Duval

A.

Hmmm. Well, Don, I take it you’re referring to the language at the top of this forum, which I didn’t write but which I will endorse nonetheless. I don’t predict things, as a rule, but we do have to live in reality. And the reality of the moment, based on every indicator of which I’m aware, is that Democrats are likely to lose some sizable number of seats in November. It makes sense for me as a columnist to look out over that horizon and try to make sense of what that will portend. If that doesn’t come to pass and Democrats actually gain seats, please write back and tell me I was a moron, and I will concede the point.

Q.

What do Republicans intend to -do- if they are handed authority of Congress? Do they have an agenda? Do they have anything constructive to propose to end the recession? Any ideas on moving us forward? Any plan to create jobs? They should be questioned -relentlessly- on this topic, until they come up with something more than platitudes and false promises and bold-sounding schemes they cannot pay for. Chances are, though, the media will give candidates (of both parties) a pass on answering substantive questions.— Posted by wesfromGA

A.

I assure you, Wes, my colleagues and I are asking that question relentlessly and in a variety of ways. (Tomorrow I am sitting with Linda McMahon in Connecticut, and I intend to ask her the same thing.) The answers may be unsatisfying, but that is up to the voters in November.— Posted by wesfromGA

Q.

Will the media ever “take the gloves off” as it were and ask difficult questions of candidates that can’t be answered with a recital of talking points?— Posted by Adam

A.

No, we prefer to ask questions more like, “Hey, how do you stay so trim?,” and then zone out during the answer. Is there something wrong with that?

Adam, we ask these questions in as many ways as we know how (if by media, you are talking about newspapers–I can’t vouch for TV). The talking points don’t thrill us, either.

Q.

This a follow-up to TG’s (#23) question. Do you see any scenario by which the Democrats either keep their current numbers in the Senate, or possibly gain seats? From what I’ve seen in the polling on Real Clear Politics, the races for vacant GOP Senate seats in Ohio, Kentucky, Missouri and Florida are quite close. And there are a few incumbent Republicans, e.g. Burr in North Carolina, that are polling well under 50%. Also, if the tea party backed GOP candidates largely fail in November, what do see for the future of that movement— Posted by Anthony N.

A.

Sure, there’s a scenario there. I don’t think it would happen if the election were held today, but we’re not holding it today, so who knows. As for the tea party, I almost think it’s beside the point. We will continue to see popular mini-movements, as I like to call them, in one election cycle after another. It’s a function of the technology we have now and the dissatisfaction with large institutions — political parties included — that permeates the society. The tea party isn’t about an ideology — it’s about community and protest — and we can expect to see more of that, I think.

Q.

Does any of it matter? The Republicans have shown that 40 votes can tie up the country.— Posted by gsquare

A.

I sure hope it matters, or else I’m wasting my time! Actually, when you think about it, this administration and this Congress have gotten an awful lot done in the past 18 months, whether you think it’s for better or worse. There was a $787 billion stimulus package, a new system of financial regulation, laws for equal pay for women, new rules for credit card companies, and, of course, the overhaul of health care that Democrats had sought for the better part of a century. Majorities matter, filibuster or no.

Q.

What significance and likely consequence do you attribute to the fact that the ratio between Republican and Democratic primary voters has sharply turned toward the Republicans? — Posted by Bob Royfills

A.

You know, Bob, every poll right now shows a much greater enthusiasm level among Republicans. And it matters a lot in a midterm cycle, especially since midterm electorates also tend to be older. This used to favor Democrats, but now appears to be a huge Republican advantage. The question, I guess, is whether Democratic base voters get more fired up as the elections approach, which you would expect to see.

Q.

What are your predictions for the midterms and how immigration reform, and the Latino vote, will play a role? — Posted by How Democracy Works Now

A.

It’s hard to see how immigration reform passes without some larger change in the political dynamic. This is not a bill you can negotiate and pass with just one party’s support. I do think that there will be an opportunity for President Obama to change that dynamic after the midterm elections, when he’s not going to be able to get anything done unless he builds coalitions from both parties. But he’ll need some Republican partners, and not just the occasional Republican vote from South Carolina or Maine.

Q.

To what do you attribute the fact that mainstream “common wisdom” as reported in the previous presidential election was, for the most part, so wrong?

Thanks for your questions, JP. One, I attribute the failure of “common wisdom” to the idea that actual wisdom is uncommon. Second, if I don’t see a lot of false memes this cycle, I intend to come up with a few and spread them myself, if only because I like the word “meme” and would hate to see it go out of fashion.

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