MTA travel trainer help Gloria Swanson learn a new route that she isn't familiar with. Trainers will accompany riders new to the system to make them more familiar with how MTA works.
MTA riders may find out more about the nMotion transit plan, which outlines a proposed $6B regional transit system over the next 25 years. The nMotion plan will go before the MTA Board for consideration on September 22.
Monday Aug. 29, 2016, in Nashville, Tenn.
(Photo: Larry McCormack / The Tennessean)Buy Photo

Story Highlights

A $6 billion regional transit system plan includes light rail, bus rapid transit and other options over 25 years, when Middle Tennessee's population is projected to reach 3 million.

Metro Transit Authority's board of directors is preparing for a Sept. 22 vote whether to adopt the plan.

For the first time since 2010, MTA experienced a drop (2 percent) in year-over-year bus ridership from July 2015 through June 2016.

For the first time since 2010, the Metro Transit Authority experienced a drop — a 2 percent dip — in year-over-year bus ridership from July 2015 through June 2016.

MTA’s top official attributes the decrease to cheaper gas prices and the rising popularity of ride-share programs Lyft and Uber.

On one hand, the trajectory isn't surprising for a system that has historically had to fight a reputation of being inefficient and inconvenient.

But it also raises a fundamental question as MTA’s board of directors prepares to vote Sept. 22 on adopting a far-reaching $6 billion regional transit plan that includes a combination of light rail, bus rapid transit and a plate of other options over the next 25 years: While Nashville and the rest of the region are certainly growing — and traffic is getting worse — does widespread demand for new, robust mass transit exist?

The last time bus ridership declined in Nashville, from 2008 through 2010, it was at a much steeper clip and the result of MTA service cuts during the Great Recession.

MTA CEO Steve Bland said he’s concerned by the latest drop in ridership but does not believe it’s a sign of Nashvillians rejecting mass transit, nor does he believe it’s a reason to shy away from future investments. Rather, he said the absence of better transit options besides buses — such as rail — means that Nashvillians lack a reason to ditch their cars.

Nashville’s lone commuter rail line, the 32-mile Music City Star that connects parts of Wilson and Davidson counties, is on a gradual three-year climb in ridership. But it has never met ridership goals since opening a decade ago.

“We still haven’t been able to really — except in a very limited way with the Music City Star — penetrate a market in a way that says, ‘Yeah, this will actually get me there quicker, more independently than driving,' ” Bland said.

Incentive to ride

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Nicole Brown and Billy Billy Biggs take the bus out 21st Ave near Vanderbilt.
MTA riders may find out more about the nMotion transit plan, which outlines a proposed $6B regional transit system over the next 25 years. The nMotion plan will go before the MTA Board for consideration on September 22.
Monday Aug. 29, 2016, in Nashville, Tenn.
(Photo: Larry McCormack / The Tennessean)

Bland believes elements of MTA’s newly recommended regional transit plan, unveiled last month following a planning process called nMotion, will finally provide that incentive — even in a sprawling region that has long been dominated culturally by the automobile.

The harder it gets to drive, or more expensive to park, the more area residents will want other options, he said. He called it a “huge game-changer,” for example, if hour-long commutes to Nashville from the suburbs could be reduced by 20 or 25 minutes.

“To really gain ridership, you have to give people competitive options,” Bland said. “There’s got to be a competitive reason to use it.

“The culture thing (concerning transit) isn’t new and it’s not unique to Nashville.”

Consultants for the MTA and the Regional Transportation Authority, which operates the Music City Star and bus service to outlying counties, recommended approval last month of a 25-year regional transit plan that they say is critical to accommodate 1 million more people expected to move to Middle Tennessee by 2040.

The proposal calls for commuter rail from Clarksville to Nashville and ramped-up service on the Music City Star that includes seven-day-a-week service, a new station and an extension to Lebanon’s planned expo center.

Four of Nashville’s busiest corridors are targeted for light rail and another three for bus rapid transit. “Freeway BRT” and bus-on-shoulder service are recommended for Middle Tennessee interstates, among other new options.

In addition, nMotion lays out an assortment of upgrades to the city’s existing bus system.

Nashville Mayor Megan Barry plans to propose a funding mechanism to start paying for pieces of the plan by the end of this year. State funding could be also key for the project.

Despite Nashville’s reluctance to embrace existing transit options, nMotion consultants say the proposed system would result in a seismic spike in ridership.

Currently, MTA and RTA have a combined average of 34,000 passengers per weekday on existing services. If the entire regional transit system is implemented, nMotion projects 180,000 passengers. That would be a 430 percent increase.

Planners calculated the projected ridership by taking into account anticipated enthusiasm from the new premium transit services and system upgrades, the system's greater frequency as well as figures that other cities have seen following transit investments. The nMotion report's projection is a snapshot at 2040, when experts predict Middle Tennessee’s population to be 3 million, up from 2 million people today.

In addition, the nMotion report says the plan would increase the number of Nashville residents within a half-mile of transit service from 230,000 to 391,000. The number of Middle Tennesseans within a half-mile would shoot up from 686,000 to 1.8 million.

Peer cities see increase

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MTA driver Archie Harper smiles as he engages with ta rider boarding his bus.
MTA riders may find out more about the nMotion transit plan, which outlines a proposed $6B regional transit system over the next 25 years. The nMotion plan will go before the MTA Board for consideration on September 22.
Monday Aug. 29, 2016, in Nashville, Tenn.
(Photo: Larry McCormack / The Tennessean)

Dallas, Denver, Salt Lake City and Charlotte, N.C., are among the cities that Bland said did not have reputations for transit but funded new systems and embraced new modes of transportation.

In Denver, the city started its transit system with the construction of 5.3 miles of light rail in 1994. The effort was accelerated via a sales tax increase — 0.4 percent — that voters approved in 2004 to fund its FasTracks transit expansion program. That funding is earmarked for 122 miles of additional rail, 18 miles of bus rapid transit and a plan to more than double Denver’s park-n-ride spaces.

Denver, which has a metro area population of 2.8 million people, is in the process of opening five new transit lines in this year alone. The cost of the overall project is $5.3 billion, and could go up to $8 billion, but leaders say the benefits have been clear.

“So much of the discussion was this was a car-centric community that grew up after the advent of the automobile: ‘You’re never going to get people out of their cars,’ ” said Scott Reed, a spokesman for the Regional Transportation District in Denver, recalling the debate in Denver more than two decades ago. “And literally the day that light rail opened in October of 1994, the question changed from, ‘Will anybody take this to?’ to ‘Can I get my line?’

“It completely changed the dynamic when people saw it in operation and saw its carrying capacity and its ability to help alleviate traffic congestion and to provide mobility options. Discussion changed virtually overnight.”

“Even though Nashville is getting bigger, public transit isn't getting better. ...
I know people who do have cars, who want to ride public transportation, but then the bus is late, or whatever, and then they stop.”

Alec Bates, 25, who commutes daily by bus from East Nashville to Murfreesboro

In Nashville, current bus riders say expanded service is needed.

Alec Bates, 25, navigates MTA's bus system each day to commute from East Nashville to Middle Tennessee State University in Murfreesboro, He previously lived in Chicago, where he said he saw the benefits of efficient transit.

"Even though Nashville is getting bigger, public transit isn't getting better," Bates said. "And it has to because there's been times when my bus has been so late that I missed two of my next buses and was late to work. That happens frequently.

"I think if it's better, it will get more people who will want to ride it," he said. "I know people who do have cars, who want to ride public transportation, but then the bus is late, or whatever, and then they stop."

Nathaniel Mason of Murfreesboro, a recent transplant from California, takes the bus each morning to get to a construction job in downtown Nashville. Mason, 24, called his daily routine "long and stressful," and he said that a robust transit system would be welcome.

"It's so hard to get from out there to here because of traffic," he said. "It's build-up traffic to the point where it's almost past Murfreesboro (on Interstate 24) sometimes. If (Nashville) got rail, it would be awesome."

Nashville's demand

The nMotion report emphasizes regional mobility as well in downtown Nashville, which is the region’s most concentrated destination. The city is in the middle of a construction boom, highlighted by new headquarters for Bridgestone Americas and a new HCA office building to come online, as well as several new apartment high-rises.

The Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce, in a report called Moving Forward, endorsed MTA’s comprehensive regional transit plan, calling it a good “starting point” for transit investments in Middle Tennessee. The chamber outlined 10 recommendations, including the creation of a plan specifically to address downtown congestion.

Developer Bert Mathews, president of Mathews Co. who participated in the creation of the chamber’s report, said solving downtown Nashville’s traffic woes is both heightened and made more challenging because of the narrow streets that dominate downtown’s central business district.

“You’ve got to figure out how increase their capacity, and the only way to increase that capacity is by putting more people in vehicles as they’re going up and down the streets,” Mathews said.

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MTA has bus stops all over town like this one on 21st Ave near Vanderbilt.(Photo: Larry McCormack / The Tennessean)

Mathews said Nashvillians will use transit as long as options are “convenient, fast and priced competitively." He framed transit as a “quality of life” issue that must get addressed soon for all residents and visitors to get around the city.

Regionally, the nMotion plan has outlined a variety of options for the interstates that cross through Nashville. Commuter rail is not a major piece of the regional plan because of the high volume of CSX freight traffic that occupies existing rail lines in Middle Tennessee.

MTA and RTA are in the process of finalizing a Northwest Corridor study that has explored rail on a Clarksville-Nashville line. Transit planners also will review Interstate 65 with an eye toward more options from Nashville and Williamson County. nMotion recommends freeway BRT on stretches of Interstate 65 south.

In a sign of interest among outlying counties, Clarksville Mayor Kim McMillan, who chairs the RTA board, has been a vocal proponent of rail service that connects to Montgomery County.

Meanwhile, multiple state lawmakers in Middle Tennessee, both Democrats and Republicans, rallied behind new state public-private partnership bill that passed last session that allows both state and local governments to contract with private businesses to build, oversee and profit from large-scale transit projects in Tennessee.

Matt Largen, president and CEO of Williamson Inc., the economic development office of the county’s chamber of commerce, said he believes there’s an appetite in Williamson’s suburbs for transit — in both directions to Nashville.

“We know the number is almost equal of people who commute on Interstate 65 north and south, and that’s been skewing more living in Nashville and working down here” he said. “So I think there would be an appetite for it.”

But there’s still that one other lingering question besides ridership.

“This is a great framework to start the discussion,” Largen said of nMotion. “The more difficult part is how you pay for it.”