Loo wrote:Prestige plays a role in how they value that TV contract, my friend. They're just not going to give that up. If you think they are--fine, that's your prerogative. I'll eat crow when ND joins the Big Ten. Unless the four super-conference theory comes to fruition and ND's athletic persuasions of joining the Big Ten grow, it's not going to happen.

You must mean ignorance plays a role, because what you are SAYING, effectively, is that even though the independant contract makes them Indiana's red headed step-child in REAL numbers, the "prestiege" of having an independant contract means something as an idea.

That having an independant contract for 12 mil is better than a shared one at 22 mil?

My perrogative is that ND isn't that freakin stupid. Back when they discussed it last, that contract was the envy of college football.

Now thier compensation falls well below the cream of the crop.

So all I am saying is that there may be lots of reasons for ND to not want into the B10, but that contract simply isn't one of them. It just isn't.

Wait a minute--you call me ignorant, then think I said ND wants prestige just for the simple idea of having it? Sheesh.

Prestige=recruiting. School history, tradition, campus size, stadium, coach and then unique features--that's ND unique feature, and it adds to the aura that is the ND football program. Every game is nationally televised--you don't think that rings in the ears of 17 and 18 year old kids?

And where are you getting your numbers? Haven't seen you link to anything.

"Prestige plays a role in how they value that TV contract, my friend."

No, I was saying that ND would have to have ignorance play a part in turning down the B10 just to hang onto that TV contract. Just plug in ignorance for prestiege, that was what I was saying.

Your point about every game being nationally televised is a solid one.

Enough to negate millions of dollars of lost revenue? I doubt it. ND will have no additional trouble recruting IMO without that contract.

Last edited by JCoz on Tue May 25, 2010 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

aoxo1 wrote:Two losses or fewer 18 times in the last 40 years (that's entering bowl season). What's the payout on a non-BCS bowl? Quick search showed a max of 4.25 for the Cap One with 14/27 at less than 1m (2006 numbers, but point stands). So almost negligible. Expected payout is ~21m I would guess, based on four decades of results.

Anyways, point was mostly to laugh about ND having to have a great season to make more than Indiana. And otherwise they get much, much less. Yeah, 11% of 26m is a lot. But not that much when you consider they have to make that BCS game 70% of the time assuming a 2m payout otherwise just to break even with Indiana.

Of course, it all changes if you think their tv contract goes up 30% or something in a few years.

Try recalculating those numbers based on the correct BCS/Bowl payouts for ND and you can laugh a lot harder.

There is simply no scenario where ND comes within 8 Million of indiana.

JCoz, you have any info on ND's radio contract and how it compares to the other conferences? I am sure it isnt enough to make up the difference, but I do know I can find everyone of their games on the radio even out here. How about merchandise compared to conferences? I have tried google with out a ton of luck.

aoxo1 wrote:Two losses or fewer 18 times in the last 40 years (that's entering bowl season). What's the payout on a non-BCS bowl? Quick search showed a max of 4.25 for the Cap One with 14/27 at less than 1m (2006 numbers, but point stands). So almost negligible. Expected payout is ~21m I would guess, based on four decades of results.

Anyways, point was mostly to laugh about ND having to have a great season to make more than Indiana. And otherwise they get much, much less. Yeah, 11% of 26m is a lot. But not that much when you consider they have to make that BCS game 70% of the time assuming a 2m payout otherwise just to break even with Indiana.

Of course, it all changes if you think their tv contract goes up 30% or something in a few years.

Try recalculating those numbers based on the correct BCS/Bowl payouts for ND and you can laugh a lot harder.

There is simply no scenario where ND comes within 8 Million of indiana.

That link you posted was from 2005. I know it used to be like that, but I thought it changed pretty recently so that they get a full share?

I know more about pizza than you. Much more in fact. - Cerebral_DownTime

aoxo1 wrote:Two losses or fewer 18 times in the last 40 years (that's entering bowl season). What's the payout on a non-BCS bowl? Quick search showed a max of 4.25 for the Cap One with 14/27 at less than 1m (2006 numbers, but point stands). So almost negligible. Expected payout is ~21m I would guess, based on four decades of results.

Anyways, point was mostly to laugh about ND having to have a great season to make more than Indiana. And otherwise they get much, much less. Yeah, 11% of 26m is a lot. But not that much when you consider they have to make that BCS game 70% of the time assuming a 2m payout otherwise just to break even with Indiana.

Of course, it all changes if you think their tv contract goes up 30% or something in a few years.

Try recalculating those numbers based on the correct BCS/Bowl payouts for ND and you can laugh a lot harder.

There is simply no scenario where ND comes within 8 Million of indiana.

That link you posted was from 2005. I know it used to be like that, but I thought it changed pretty recently so that they get a full share?

Thier annual share is now up to 1.3 mil. They have not renegotiated the partial share.

Fallacy #2: "Notre Dame gets an unfair distribution of BCS money."With the implementation of the most recent BCS contract in 2006, Notre Dame no longer gets a full BCS share for a BCS game ($14 million at the time, now $18 million) but settled for $4.5 million, the amount given to a second place team from a conference.Additionally, for the length of the four-year contract, the Irish would receive a 1/66th share of BCS money as the 66th team in the BCS - about $1.3 million - when they did not go to a BCS game.

For the last two years, here are the BCS conference's profits and average per team:

To make the same amount ($14 million in 2005) for a BCS appearance under the old contract, Notre Dame would need to appear in three BCS bowls in the four year contract (3 x $4.5 = $13.5 + $1.3 million for the fourth year = $14.8 million). With the conference champion's share increased to $18 million, though, ND would currently need four BCS appearances in four years (4 x $4.5 = $18 million) to equal one year. The Irish settled for 25% of what they used to take for a BCS participation.

Since ND’s BCS appearance revenue has been fixed, the “rising tide lifts all boats” theory applies to all the other BCS teams except ND. The BCS contract with fixed amounts has been an anchor to Notre Dame, while the sea rises around them. Notre Dame could appear in a national championship game for 25% of what its opponent will get for their conference.

Notre Dame's annual share is not only less than the average for each conference team, but is 1% of the total bowl revenue distributed among BCS teams. Some fans think 1% of bowl monies is too much to give Notre Dame.

In short, it is more profitable to be Duke, Iowa State, Indiana, Washington State, Syracuse, or Mississippi State than to be an independent Notre Dame. Independence for ND is certainly not about the BCS money.

aoxo1 wrote:Two losses or fewer 18 times in the last 40 years (that's entering bowl season). What's the payout on a non-BCS bowl? Quick search showed a max of 4.25 for the Cap One with 14/27 at less than 1m (2006 numbers, but point stands). So almost negligible. Expected payout is ~21m I would guess, based on four decades of results.

Anyways, point was mostly to laugh about ND having to have a great season to make more than Indiana. And otherwise they get much, much less. Yeah, 11% of 26m is a lot. But not that much when you consider they have to make that BCS game 70% of the time assuming a 2m payout otherwise just to break even with Indiana.

Of course, it all changes if you think their tv contract goes up 30% or something in a few years.

Try recalculating those numbers based on the correct BCS/Bowl payouts for ND and you can laugh a lot harder.

There is simply no scenario where ND comes within 8 Million of indiana.

That link you posted was from 2005. I know it used to be like that, but I thought it changed pretty recently so that they get a full share?

Actually, you are right, the contract would seemingly end this year and I can't find a new deal online.

However, there is nothing at all to suggest that ND has the leverage to change that portion of the BCS contract with them.

Ziner wrote:JCoz, you have any info on ND's radio contract and how it compares to the other conferences? I am sure it isnt enough to make up the difference, but I do know I can find everyone of their games on the radio even out here. How about merchandise compared to conferences? I have tried google with out a ton of luck.

Actually I have never come across radio $$'s IIRC. I don't know if they end up lumped in somewhere or I just don't remember seeing them called out.

Ziner wrote:JCoz, you have any info on ND's radio contract and how it compares to the other conferences? I am sure it isnt enough to make up the difference, but I do know I can find everyone of their games on the radio even out here. How about merchandise compared to conferences? I have tried google with out a ton of luck.

Radio has got to be a drop in the bucket.

ND is going to move just as much merch if they join the Big Ten. Is there merch revenue sharing?

I know more about pizza than you. Much more in fact. - Cerebral_DownTime

Ziner wrote:JCoz, you have any info on ND's radio contract and how it compares to the other conferences? I am sure it isnt enough to make up the difference, but I do know I can find everyone of their games on the radio even out here. How about merchandise compared to conferences? I have tried google with out a ton of luck.

Radio has got to be a drop in the bucket.

ND is going to move just as much merch if they join the Big Ten. Is there merch revenue sharing?

That is why I was asking. I still am pretty positive it couldn't make up the difference, but it could make the gap smaller. ND sells a lot of shit.

There is no way the radio can be anywhere near the TV contract, but it can't be chump change if they are airing it on as many stations as they do.

The football’s the thing at Notre Dame. It’s why companies spend into the low seven figures to be a member of Team Notre Dame, the school’s highest level of sponsorship. It’s why NBC pays more than $10 million a year for the exclusive rights to televise Irish home games. It’s why ISP Sports usurped the national radio network away from Notre Dame’s 40-year partner, Westwood One, this year at $2.6 million annually.

And it’s why, when you add it all up, the school’s multimedia, marketing and licensing revenue reaches nearly $30 million a year.

Wonder if that 30 mil a year includes the merchandise... seems as if it might be covered under the licensing revenue.

aoxo1 wrote:Nah you're right JCoz, I had it backwards (they used to get a full share and that got clipped, not the other way).

I meant you are right that a new deal should be in place by now....

Like I said though, I seriously doubt they have a legit shot at getting that full share back....

Of course all of this talk seems to be assuming ND has a choice to stay put under current NCAA/BCS Conference conditions, which most assuredly is NOT the case.

If the B10 goes past #12 (and I think they will) it will undoubtedly set off a chain reaction where ND will be forced to join a conference one way or the other. ND itself has alluded to this very possibility. Remember, in a mega shift of conferences, ND would be in serious danger of losing half thier BCS team schedule if they refuse to join a conference.

If that assumption is sound, then in that scenario, ND will in fact have left a significant chunk of money on the table by missing the Big Ten boat.

aoxo1 wrote:Nah you're right JCoz, I had it backwards (they used to get a full share and that got clipped, not the other way).

I meant you are right that a new deal should be in place by now....

Like I said though, I seriously doubt they have a legit shot at getting that full share back....

Of course all of this talk seems to be assuming ND has a choice to stay put under current NCAA/BCS Conference conditions, which most assuredly is NOT the case.

If the B10 goes past #12 (and I think they will) it will undoubtedly set off a chain reaction where ND will be forced to join a conference one way or the other. ND itself has alluded to this very possibility. Remember, in a mega shift of conferences, ND would be in serious danger of losing half thier BCS team schedule if they refuse to join a conference.

If that assumption is sound, then in that scenario, ND will in fact have left a significant chunk of money on the table by missing the Big Ten boat.

And so when you project ND's choices in a mega-shift scenario - the option of staying independent starts to turn quite sour.

When independance is no longer a viable option, choosing another conference over the B10 -(the most likely being the Pacten IMO, as I think the Big East may dissolve or push further into the Basketball sphere and lose its BCS auto-bid) - would simply be a bad one, financially speaking.

If ND HAS to join a conference, the choice is abundantly clear from thier perspective - it's the Big Ten and no other conference comes close in total financial package.

Add Nebraska instead, I don't like the snide Irish fan base and I am willing to bet others don't like the Irish that much either on these boards.

*The Huskers have 827 wins all-time.*5 national titles since 1970.*Plenty of award winners.*One of the best college fan bases for football if not thee best.*304 consecutive home sell outs and more to come.

Add Nebraska instead, I don't like the snide Irish fan base and I am willing to bet others don't like the Irish that much either on these boards.

*The Huskers have 827 wins all-time.*5 national titles since 1970.*Plenty of award winners.*One of the best college fan bases for football if not thee best.*304 consecutive home sell outs and more to come.

Add Nebraska instead, I don't like the snide Irish fan base and I am willing to bet others don't like the Irish that much either on these boards.

*The Huskers have 827 wins all-time.*5 national titles since 1970.*Plenty of award winners.*One of the best college fan bases for football if not thee best.*304 consecutive home sell outs and more to come.

Swerb wrote:Go start a blog if you want to tell the world your incomprehendible ramblings.

Cerebral_DownTime wrote:I have a big arm and can throw the ball pretty damn far...... maybe even over those moutains. The Browns should sign me, i'll let you all in locker room to drink beer. Then we can all go out the parking lot to watch me do motorcycle stunts.

aoxo1 wrote:Nah you're right JCoz, I had it backwards (they used to get a full share and that got clipped, not the other way).

If the B10 goes past #12 (and I think they will) it will undoubtedly set off a chain reaction where ND will be forced to join a conference one way or the other. ND itself has alluded to this very possibility. Remember, in a mega shift of conferences, ND would be in serious danger of losing half thier BCS team schedule if they refuse to join a conference.

You're right--thanks for showing the numbers. For some reason I keep thinking there's something we are forgetting to add to the equation--if those numbers are spot on, I'm a little surprised no word has been sent from the ND camp about merging. It's most been from the Big Ten itself.

And that was my point earlier--ND won't be in the first round of additions. Even with the info you presented, I still think they only join if a super-conference scenario comes to fruition, and they're backed into a corner.

I didn't take any time to actually read through this, but I thought I'd share some insider speculation.

I am currently a student at OSU and last night I attended a small private party of about 80 in which Gordon Gee was the guest speaker. After his speech he did a question and answer session and the question of the Big 10 expansion was asked. Gordon was pretty tight lipped about what was actually said, but he did give his opinion on the matter.

Gordon Gee believes that the Big 10 will expand with the addition of 6 more teams. He named Missouri, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Notre Dame as a few of the teams that they would likely try to obtain. He also speculated that were this to occur the other conferences would collapse and join together so that there were only 4 "super" conferences in the NCAA thereafter. He even mentioned speaking to a man in charge of conference coordination (I can't remember his name) and saying to him "you're presiding over a burning platform."

Take it for what you will, but seeing as Gordon Gee is the chairman of the committee of Big 10 presidents that are making the decision about the expansion, I'd say it's a pretty good indication of where the Big 10 might be headed.

I guess I missed the new BCS contract, so that means that ND is being even that much more irrational in their conference dodging. That said, they must have some projection that tells them that they will make more $$ independently (or at least close that gap). We all know that money truly makes the world go round. I know NCAA revenues are going up, could it be that ND really thinks that their next contract could be worth staying independent? I tend to doubt it.

Coming from a Wolverine, we're the football equivalent of a formerly abused wife of a meth addict who just remarried the safe nice guy. We're just glad we have someone who's aware that it's a rivalry and that tackling on defense is integral. Baby steps.

to go off-topic, it's sort of sad to see Notre Dame dwindle down in importance in the world of college football, on ESPN classic today, they were showing them at one of their peak years in the 80's, and they destroyed a Michigan State team that was the Big Ten champs that very year.Kicking lou holtz out because he was going to break rockne's record allegedly, is STILL haunting them.

I do want to see them in the Big 10 though, I mean to see something like TOSU-ND become a yearly game would be fantastic, plus the rivalries with Michigan, Michigan St, and Purdue remaining in tact would be cool, along with renewed ones against Penn State and Northwestern.

Swerb wrote:Go start a blog if you want to tell the world your incomprehendible ramblings.

Cerebral_DownTime wrote:I have a big arm and can throw the ball pretty damn far...... maybe even over those moutains. The Browns should sign me, i'll let you all in locker room to drink beer. Then we can all go out the parking lot to watch me do motorcycle stunts.

Sol Solis wrote:I didn't take any time to actually read through this, but I thought I'd share some insider speculation.

I am currently a student at OSU and last night I attended a small private party of about 80 in which Gordon Gee was the guest speaker. After his speech he did a question and answer session and the question of the Big 10 expansion was asked. Gordon was pretty tight lipped about what was actually said, but he did give his opinion on the matter.

Gordon Gee believes that the Big 10 will expand with the addition of 6 more teams. He named Missouri, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Notre Dame as a few of the teams that they would likely try to obtain. He also speculated that were this to occur the other conferences would collapse and join together so that there were only 4 "super" conferences in the NCAA thereafter. He even mentioned speaking to a man in charge of conference coordination (I can't remember his name) and saying to him "you're presiding over a burning platform."

Take it for what you will, but seeing as Gordon Gee is the chairman of the committee of Big 10 presidents that are making the decision about the expansion, I'd say it's a pretty good indication of where the Big 10 might be headed.

Triple-S wrote:to go off-topic, it's sort of sad to see Notre Dame dwindle down in importance in the world of college football, on ESPN classic today, they were showing them at one of their peak years in the 80's, and they destroyed a Michigan State team that was the Big Ten champs that very year.Kicking lou holtz out because he was going to break rockne's record allegedly, is STILL haunting them.

I do want to see them in the Big 10 though, I mean to see something like TOSU-ND become a yearly game would be fantastic, plus the rivalries with Michigan, Michigan St, and Purdue remaining in tact would be cool, along with renewed ones against Penn State and Northwestern.

Yeah, even I would enjoy seeing Ohio State kick shit in ND's face every year.

I know more about pizza than you. Much more in fact. - Cerebral_DownTime

The two game series vs tOSU in the 90's valuted tOSU back into pre-emminent status and was among the most highly anticipated and hyped independant games in recent (somewhat) Buckeye history, at or near what you saw with Texas and USC this decade.

They are located in Indiana, folks. The heart of Big 10 country. The Big 10 = midwestern football, just as the PAC 10 is the west coast, SWC used to be Texas, and SEC is redneck. State Penn was a step in the direction of basterdization as that is an east coast school masquerading as Pennsylvania. Rutgers would be a complete departure.

Triple-S wrote:to go off-topic, it's sort of sad to see Notre Dame dwindle down in importance in the world of college football, on ESPN classic today, they were showing them at one of their peak years in the 80's, and they destroyed a Michigan State team that was the Big Ten champs that very year.Kicking lou holtz out because he was going to break rockne's record allegedly, is STILL haunting them.

nahh. Lou is straight up Ohio Valley SSS . Fish outta water at ND. Read "UNder the Tarnished Dome". ND fans are delusional. They still have BCS title aspirations every year. Clueless.

According to allegations too numerous to cite, when Lou was at ND his program did what you had to do to win in big time college football, including the PEDS, the thugs, the Prop 48 exceptions, and the look the other way routine. The fight in the tunnel vs the U was epic. Lou had some very bad boys in the day.

Once it all started to leak ND thought that their fecal matter was not odiferously offensive and lived under he illusion that they could be different and still contend. Hesbergh was a lifer from the glory days. He probably looked at it all with the attitude "ahhh, me boys will be me boys and faith and begorrah." Melloy was new school and wanted to take ND to a level even above Hesbergh. Championship football became less an imperative for it's own sake and more a vehical. After Melloy and enough pain of sucking they dipped their toe in the water for Weiss by finally waiving the college calculous requirement (can you imagine that anywhere else, including scrub programs) but aren't ready to cannon ball. This, they will continue to ball only so-so .

When they are ready to again react toward the 'sins" of big time college football as the vatican reacts towards sex offenders and pedophiles, they will once again win.

My only issue with expansion to 14 or 16 teams is that I like the out-of-conference matchups and you'd have to expect them to add at least two more B10 games a season to the schedule.

That would mean that Ohio St. would beat up on scrubs like Eastern Michigan and Middle Tennessee St and then go right in to B10 play. I like the idea of them playing a home-and-home with Miami. But, if you're adding talent to the B10, Tressel and Co. will find it less appealing to schedule a quality OOC opponent because their B10 schedule will be that much more of a grind.

I guess at first it'll feel like an OOC game since those teams are new in the conference, but it'll get old real fast.

I didn't read the whole thread, but this would have an enormous impact on recruiting and the current state of the incoming programs. Missouri, for example, is not equipped to play B10 football, if they were to come in the league. It's a few years transition and a complete shift in recruiting.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

skatingtripods wrote: Missouri, for example, is not equipped to play B10 football, if they were to come in the league. It's a few years transition and a complete shift in recruiting.

I'll play.

Why not?

Mizzou has had some pretty good football teams over the recent years only to be snubbed in BCS selection by their own conference IMhO. They slipped some last year (no excuse for ever losing to Baylor) but they sure have beating Illinois down pat.

They may run more finesse spread style-wise, but isn't that what Dick Rod is also trying to do, and even JT with Pryor? Most of saturday, and Friday for that matter, is the domain of the spread O . Pinkel is also an Ohio guy himelf.

I like the idea of Mizzou, think the state is at the gateway of the south and midwest and can roll in any direction culturally, and I like the idea of the St Lou market.

After all, it is the home town of Butler By'not'e or however you hypehanate all of that.....

skatingtripods wrote:Missouri, for example, is not equipped to play B10 football, if they were to come in the league. It's a few years transition and a complete shift in recruiting.

Would that be the same Missouri that thrashed Illinois 37-9 last September, and has been ranked in the nation's top 10 within recent memory? Should they shift away from the recruiting strategy that has produced the Jeremy Maclins and Sean Weatherspoons of the current NFL? In what sense, exactly, are they not equipped to compete with the vast majority of Big Ten teams?

"I believe it is the nature of the human species to reject what is true but unpleasant and to embrace what is obviously false but comforting." H.L. Mencken

I'm not questioning their offensive capabilities. The spread has worked well for them, though Gabbert has some growing to do to get up to Chase Daniel's level.

I seriously question their defense. They have athletes, but I'm not sure what they would do against teams with a good rushing attack. Their defensive numbers aren't terrible against the run, but they're in such a pass-happy conference. Everybody has a bad pass defense in the B12, and I don't think Mizzou's would be as exposed in the B10, but you have to wonder what would happen to their run defense.

I know that nobody runs the triple option like Navy, but they got thrashed in their bowl game against a running team.

I just don't know if Mizzou can outscore teams to win in the B10. Their defense is getting better and they've really focused on the D recently.

Since when is having the athletes and the overall football program to consistently beat Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State a qualifier for Big Ten membership? I don't hear anyone clamoring to have Minnesota, Indiana, Northwestern and Purdue and Illinois ousted from the conference because they lose to the Buckeyes, (in, say, Indiana's case) 39 out of 40 tries.

Anyway, football is far from the only consideration in conference expansion decisions...obviously.

"I believe it is the nature of the human species to reject what is true but unpleasant and to embrace what is obviously false but comforting." H.L. Mencken

furls wrote:I guess I missed the new BCS contract, so that means that ND is being even that much more irrational in their conference dodging. That said, they must have some projection that tells them that they will make more $$ independently (or at least close that gap). We all know that money truly makes the world go round. I know NCAA revenues are going up, could it be that ND really thinks that their next contract could be worth staying independent? I tend to doubt it.

Well to be fair Furls, this is a recent development, and really ND still fares well vs many conferences, just not the B10 or SEC.

I think the last 2 years has really forced a self examination for the Irish, question now is how they handle it moving forward.

They're not a Big 10 team, neither is Nebraska, Rutgers, 'Cuse, or any of the other teams they want to shit up the B10 with.

It ain't rocket science. Leave the Big 10 how it is.

Are you saying Nebraska shouldn't be in the Big 10 for competitive reasons? Because if so, even with the loss of Suh the Huskers could win the Big 12. Very young offense that's returning, and they'll still have a solid defensive line.

They're not a Big 10 team, neither is Nebraska, Rutgers, 'Cuse, or any of the other teams they want to shit up the B10 with.

It ain't rocket science. Leave the Big 10 how it is.

Are you saying Nebraska shouldn't be in the Big 10 for competitive reasons? Because if so, even with the loss of Suh the Huskers could win the Big 12. Very young offense that's returning, and they'll still have a solid defensive line.

No i'm saying no more teams should be added to the Big Ten, period. Not even ND. Nebraska should stay where they are.