In the worst case, a war with Iraq could cost the United States almost as much as the government spent in the last budget year -- nearly $2 trillion, according to new projections in a major report just released from the Committee on International Security Studies of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Of course the American Government isn't making such projections, certainly not in public anyway. And furthermore assertion of control of Iraqi oil, the world oil markets, and the Middle East region -- even if brought about through old-thinking neo-imperialistic modern-day military means -- apparently is thought by those who today have control of the Pentagon and military-industrial complex to be worth it all. The prices that may be paid in furthering the isolation of the U.S. in world affairs; in generating hatred into future years; and in the weakening of the social, economic, and political institutions of the United States; are also likely to be considerable if not unprecedented, however hard to precisely quantify and predict. The human cost to Iraq has already been incalculable. And the tremendous suffering and death in recent years in Lebanon, Palestine, Iran, Algeria, Afghanistan, et. al. -- considerably due to the policies of the U.S. and Israel -- is not only a backdrop to all of today's developements but in many ways the cause of 9/11 and thus of today's still escalating international crisis. The full 93-page report from the American Academy of Arts and Sciences can be found at: http://www.amacad.org/publications/monographs/War_with_Iraq.pdf

Study: Iraq War Could Cost $1.9 Trillion

By SIOBHAN McDONOUGH

WASHINGTON (AP - 6 Dec) - In the worst case, a war with Iraq could cost the United States almost as much as the government spent in the last budget year - nearly $2 trillion, according to new projections.

Researchers concluded in a study released Thursday that war with Iraq could cost the United States from $99 billion to more than $1.9 trillion over a decade.

The lower figure assumes a successful military, diplomatic and nation-building campaign; the higher figure assumes a prolonged war with a disruption of oil markets and a U.S. recession, the authors say in a study by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Both figures assume a U.S. involvement in the country for 10 years.

White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said it was premature to comment on cost estimates.

``War is the last resort,'' he said. ``We're hoping for a peaceful solution.''

The 1991 Persian Gulf War cost America an estimated $61 billion, but allies reimbursed all but about $7 billion. By some accounting methods, the United States may have even made a profit.

Direct military spending could range from $50 billion in a short campaign to $140 billion in a prolonged war with Iraq, said the study titled, ``War With Iraq: Costs, Consequences and Alternatives.'' The study was done by the academy's Committee on International Security Studies.

The report cautioned that aside from the estimates of direct military costs, all the numbers should be ``regarded as informed conjecture.''

Occupation and peacekeeping costs could be $75 billion in the best case to $500 billion in the worst, the study said. Reconstruction and nation-building costs are estimated at $30 billion to $105 billion, and humanitarian aid at $1 billion to $10 billion.

Economic ripples of war with Iraq are likely to spread beyond budgetary costs, with the prospect of raising the cost of imported oil, slowing productivity growth and possibly triggering a recession, the report said.

A prolonged disruption of world oil markets could cost the U.S. economy up to $778 billion, the researchers estimated. On the other hand, Iraq's huge oil resources could satisfy U.S. needs for imported oil at current levels for almost a century and otherwise benefit the economy by $40 billion.

A short war could actually benefit the United States in terms of its macroeconomic impact, which includes employment, by $17 billion. A long war, in contrast, could have a $391 billion negative effect.

The American Academy of Arts and Sciences, founded in 1780 and based in Cambridge, Mass., is an international society of scientists, scholars, artists, business people and political leaders.

On the Net: American Academy of Arts and Sciences: http://www.amacad.org

December 2002

WAR LOOMS - Israel, the US, and Britain Prepare (December 22, 2002) The U.S. and Israel are moving in tandem now to take control of the entire Middle East region as never before in modern history. In effect it is a neo-crusade designed to force the entire region into submission and 'remake' it to further serve Western and Israeli desires. A look at the map of the region shows in fact that nearly every country -- with the exceptions of Lebanon, Syria, and Iran -- now has US forces and US bases. Not since the breakup of the Ottoman Empire at the time of World War I, 'Lawrence of Arabia', and the Paris 'Peace to end all Peace' Conference have there been such dramatic and far-reaching geo-political changes forced on the Arab people of the Middle East.

Academics Squeak Up (December 20, 2002) Academics are often late to the party; as they surely are in these historically important times and with this particularly half-baked half-hearted statement. And even when they get there too many "political correct" academics end up talking a lot while actually not doing very much -- especially when they get together collectively and especially in the contemporary US of A these days. Such is clearly the case here with this latest statement from an ensemble of American academics coming mildly and meekly together capitalizing on the opportunity to indicate that they are doing so in support of their "courageous" Israeli colleagues. 'Courage' is not a word that should however be applied to their own very inadequate statement.

(December 20, 2002)

Academics Squeak Up... (December 20, 2002) American Academics back 'courageous' Israeli academics, while lacking their own courage and hiding behind the 'I Gave At the Office' Excuse.

Israel Faces 'Catastrophe' Ahead (December 18, 2002) Potential catastrophe awaits Israel within a few years. This warning from none other than Shimon Peres himself.

'The Push for War' - Truly Must Reading to Understand Contemporary Washington (December 16, 2002) To put it simply, this is an immensely insightful and extraordinarly provocative article by an author who will be new to most but who should be quickly elevated to importance. Anatol Lieven's look at contemporary Washington is something only a once outsider now insider relatively free of entangling alliances could come up; and only something that could be published abroad from American shores, as it was last October in the London Review of Books.

Threatening With Nukes and Star Wars-Type Weapons (December 16, 2002) So far this month the American President has threatened to use nuclear weapons against Iraq. The Israelis have threatened to use their considerable nuclear arsenal against Islam itself, as well as Iran in addition to Iraq. And the Sunday Express in London has just front-paged a grand story that Osama and Al-Qaeda have 20 'Backpack Nukes' from the old Soviet Empire days. Whether this 'Suitcase Nukes' was a leaked story designed to create more fear and build more support for the US/Israeli war, or whether it may be true...there's really no way for most of us to know for sure at the moment. The placing and timing sure is suspicious, coming in fact right after the US and Israeli nuclear threats got some worldwide attention. And the fact that the story was featured only in this sensationalistic headline-grabbing London newspaper, and at the same time that the Iraqi exiles are meeting in London at the US-sponsored conference...all this adds to the confusion and uncertainty and suspicions. After all, both the American CIA and the Israeli Mossad have a long history of such kinds of deceptions...dare we call it a kind of 'journalistic terrorism' in fact? And at least the CIA, at least in years past, was prohibited from 'disinformation' leaks to American media outlets...hence the dateline London story takes on even more doubters.

It's all about 'Regional Change'...not simple 'Regime Change' (December 14, 2002) Indeed, the US/Israeli "New World Order" is nothing less than a historic neo-imperialistic power grab the world has not seen for quite some time. As this Canadian columnist writes: "Senior [U.S.] administration officials openly speak of invading Iran, Syria, Libya and Lebanon. Influential neo-conservative think-tanks in Washington have deployed a small army of "experts" on TV, urging the U.S. to remove governments deemed unfriendly to the U.S. and Israel. Washington's most powerful lobbies - for oil and Israel - are urging the U.S. to seize Mideast oil and crush any regional states that might one day challenge Israel's nuclear monopoly or regional dominance. The radical transformation of the Mideast being considered by the Bush administration is potentially the biggest political change since the notorious 1916 Sykes-Picot Treaty in which victorious Britain and France carved up the Ottoman-ruled region."

Another Nobel Tragedy and Travesty (December 10, 2002) However well-meaning Jimmy Carter may have been then and now; judged by his actions, misrepresentations, and political cowardice, rather than by his apparently heartfelt rhetoric, Carter's involvement in matters Middle Eastern was tragic, at best. Indeed, to award such a 'peace prize' to Carter in the midst of the terrible circumstances faced by the Palestinians, the upcoming American/Israeli war for regional control, and the simmering 'Clash of Civilizations' is a historical travesty, at best.

Jordanian Realities...as King Abdullah II Proclaims Himself 'The True Voice of Islam' (December 7, 2002) In the pages of the Empire's hometown newspaper The Washington Post King Abdullah II proclaims himself 'The True Voice of Islam' hoping against hope that his Kingdom will remain under American protection after the upcoming great war in which it is really the Israelis who will decide whether Jordan becomes 'The Palestinian State' For much more historical background into the reality of 'The Hashemite Kingdon of Jordan' see -- http://www.MiddleEast.Org/archives/jordan.htm

The Tremendous and Escalating Cost of US and Israeli Policies (December 6, 2002) In the worst case, a war with Iraq could cost the United States almost as much as the government spent in the last budget year - nearly $2 trillion, according to new projections in a major report from the Committee on International Security Studies of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

The 'Big War' Ahead - Israelis Prepare for Killing and Expulsion (December 4, 2002) The BIG WAR with devastating historical results is now coming. It may focus on Iraq; but it will have possibly even more lasting repercussions in the once 'Holy Land' of the Jewish, Christian and Muslim Bibles. When it finally happens no one will be able to say this time that they didn't know, they weren't aware, how could it happen... And there will be so much blame to be distributed starting of course with the Israelis but extending quickly and fairly to the United States, American Jews, the United Nations, et. al.