Daily Market Lookup

Asian shares stepped back in cautious trade on Monday as investors look to see whether U.S. Republicans can hammer a tax reform deal quickly, while the British pound fell on growing doubts over Prime Minister Theresa May's leadership. There are few signs of a compromise yet, with the head of the House of Representatives' tax-writing committee opposing a proposal from Senate Republicans that would hike taxes for some middle class Americans The British pound came under renewed pressure, slipping 0.5% to $1.3120 after the Times of London reported on Sunday that 40 Tory lawmakers have agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in May. Traders were also keeping a wary eye on Venezuela, as the cash-strapped OPEC nation will hold a keenly-awaited meeting with investors to discuss renegotiating $60bn in foreign debt on Monday. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said on Sunday the country would never default on its debt and its bonds had rallied on Friday on optimism ahead of the meeting. The pound slipped early on Monday as troubles mounted for British Prime Minister May, with a report that 40 Conservative MPs are readying a leadership challenge, while Brexit talks face a crucial deadline. The dollar received a lift against its major peers as U.S. yields spiked and as the pound stumbled, although the main investor focus was still on a planned U.S. tax overhaul. The Sunday Times reported over the weekend that 40 members of parliament from British May’s Conservative Party have agreed to sign a letter of no-confidence in her. That is eight short of the number needed to trigger a party leadership contest, the mechanism through which May could be forced from office and replaced by another Conservative. Also, Brexit Minister David Davis said on Sunday that Britain will not offer a figure or a formula for how much it believes it owes the European Union, highlighting the lack of progress plaguing the divorce negotiations.

A Federal Reserve official said on Monday he expects to back an interest rate hike next month despite caution over low-inflation, as U.S. central bank policy needs to be positioned to deal with future economic shocks. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he has “lightly penciled in” a December rate hike. However, he flagged he had slightly less conviction about the policy decision than he had last month as he “continues to elicit caution” about weak inflation and also about the way in which it is measured. Harker said he expects the Fed to raise rates three times next year as long as inflation remains on track, and the projected tightening could take policy to what he would describe as a neutral stance. Harker, a centrist voter on the Fed’s monetary policy committee this year under an internal rotation, said the Fed must continue normalizing policy as the economy is “more or less at full strength” and there remains “very little slack” in the labor market. The Fed will also continue to trim its nearly $4.5-trillion bond portfolio, which Harker said should be clearly communicated in advance and happen in a predictable manner. Harker said the conditions in the U.S. economy are ripe for further gains in consumer prices, but he wants to make sure he can confirm this in the economic data.

Oil prices settled a bit lower on Friday, with a recent rally finally showing signs of slowing after closely-watched data showed an uptick in U.S. drilling activity. Oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by nine to 738 last week, underlining worries that U.S. producers will ramp up output with prices holding near 28-month highs. The weekly rig count is an important barometer for the drilling industry and serves as a proxy for domestic oil production. The global benchmark ended the week with an increase of approximately 2.4%, the fifth weekly gain in a row. Oil's rally, which began in early October, has been largely driven by expectations that oil producing countries will agree to extend an output cut at their meeting at the end of this month. Under the original terms of the deal, OPEC and 10 other non-OPEC countries led by Russia agreed to cut production by 1.8 mn bpd for six months. The agreement was extended in May of this year for a period of nine more months until March 2018 in a bid to reduce global oil inventories and support oil prices. Discussions are continuing in the run-up to the Nov. 30 meeting, which oil ministers from OPEC and the participating non-OPEC countries will attend. Prices received another boost amid ongoing unrest in the Middle East as well as escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Saudi Arabia is among the world’s top producers of oil and OPEC’s most influential member. In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Oil traders will also focus on monthly reports from the OPEC and the International Energy Agency to assess global oil supply and demand levels. The data will give traders a better picture of whether a global rebalancing is taking place in the oil market.

Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS

13th November 2017

R1

R2

R3

GOLD-XAU

1,281

1,290-1,300

1,311

Silver-XAG

17.20

17.50-18.00

18.60

Crude Oil

57.00

57.75

58.85-59.50

EURO/USD

1.1660-1.1700

1.1750

1.1800-1.1850

GBP/USD

1.3150

1.3260-1.3300

1.3360

USD/JPY

113.60-114.00

115.00-115.50

115.00-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS

13th November 2017

S1

S2

S3

GOLD-XAU

1,274

1,266

1,260-1,252

Silver-XAG

16.70

16.35-16.00

15.60

Crude Oil

56.60

56.00

55.20-54.60

EURO/USD

1.1610

1.1550

1.1490-1.1400

GBP/USD

1.3100

1.3050

1.3000-1.2950

USD/JPY

113.00-112.30

111.50

110.60

Intra-Day Strategy (13th November 2017)

GOLD-XAU

Neutral

Silver-XAG

Neutral

Crude Oil

Neutral

EUR/USD

Neutral to Sell

GBP/USD

Neutral to Sell

USD/JPY

Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1288.45/oz and low of US$1279.83/oz. Gold was up by 0.748% at US$1284.86/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1275) and breakage above will call for 1312-1321. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$17.08/oz and low of US$16.78/oz. Silver settled down by 0.530% at US$16.87/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (17.16), breakage below will lead to 16.70-16.35. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$57.33/bbl, intraday low of US$56.63/bbl and settled down by 0.245% to close at US$56.87/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 49.60 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 50.30-51.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 57.00-60.50 with stop loss at 60.50; targeting and 56.60-56.00 and 54.60-53.75 Buy above 57.00-54.60 with risk daily closing below 54.60 and targeting 57.75-58.85 and 59.50-60.50.

Intraday Support Levels

S1

56.60

S2

56.00

S3

55.20-54.60

Intraday Resistance Levels

R1

57.00

R2

57.75

R3

58.85-59.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

Name

Value

Action

14DRSI

72.614

Sell

20-DMA

54.33

Buy

50-DMA

51.89

Buy

100-DMA

49.57

Buy

200-DMA

49.60

Buy

STOCH(5,3)

58.379

Sell

MACD(12,26,9)

1.605

Buy

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1622/EUR, high of US$1.1677/EUR and settled the day up by 0.223% to close at US$1.1666/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1750-1.1800. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3111/GBP, high of US$1.3229/GBP and settled the day up by 0.365% to close at US$1.3191/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3306) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3150-1.3360 with targets at 1.3100-1.3050 and 1.3000-1.2950. Buy above 1.3100-1.2950 with stop loss closing below 1.2950 targeting 1.3260-1.3300 and 1.3360-1.3440.

Intraday Support Levels

S1

1.3100

S2

1.3050

S3

1.3000-1.2950

Intraday Resistance Levels

R1

1.3150

R2

1.3260-1.3300

R3

1.3360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

Name

Value

Action

14DRSI

45.923

Buy

20-DMA

1.3169

Sell

50-DMA

1.3247

Sell

100-DMA

1.3108

Buy

200-DMA

1.2872

Buy

STOCH(5,3)

60.083

Sell

MACD(12,26,9)

-0.0022

Buy

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY113.62/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.62/USD and settled the day up by 0.079% at JPY113.55/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (111.73), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.