Tuesday, January 5, 2010

2010 Top Prospect List: #15 Matt Klinker, rhp

Matt Klinker is a student of the game and one of the headiest pitchers in the system. He has an intellectual approach to pitching that enables him to objectively analyze his game to identify weaknesses so that he can improve upon them. And, his hard work has really begun to pay off, as he has elevated his game to the next level. Odd as it may sound, Klinker has actually managed to improve his baseline level of performance while climbing the developmental ladder. It's rare to see a pitcher improve against more advanced and challenging competition. Obviously, performance usually tails off as the competition improves. Klinker, on the other hand, has gotten even better as the competition has gotten better, which may well be a testament to both his hard work and impressive pitching IQ.

Collegiate Career and Draft Position

The Reds selected Klinker in the 15th round of the 2007 draft with the 469th overall pick. Klinker has pitching in the blood, as his father was a pitcher for Purdue University. Klinker was a draft eligible senior out of Furman University when the Reds called his name. He is yet another tall pitching prospect, which, of course, gives him additional room for growth and physical projection.

For Furman, Klinker spent his freshman and sophomore season working both as a starter and a reliever. As a junior and senior, he worked almost exclusively as a starter. During his four collegiate seasons, Klinker was never a dominant pitcher, posting season ERAs of 5.80, 4.38, 3.90, and 4.57, BB/9 ratios of 4.7, 4.2, 2.6, and 2.7, and K/9 ratios of 8.0, 6.2, 6.7, and 7.3, respectively.

He obviously had some potential, but lacked the electric stuff that tends to turn the heads of the scouting world, which is why he was still on the board when the Reds selected in round 15.

Professional Career

In 2009, Klinker was another prospect in the Reds system who made the rather unusual three level jump (Logan Ondrusek being another). Given the Reds typically conservative player development strategy, it was a surprisingly aggressive course that they charted for Klinker. The truly interesting thing about Klinker is that he's pitching better than he has at anytime in recent memory, including his time at the collegiate level.

To open up the 2009 season, Klinker was sent to high-A Sarasota where he started 9 games. He worked a total of 42.1 innings in which he posted a 4.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a 42/8 K/BB ratio. Obviously, the ERA/WHIP are unimpressive, but his ratios (1.7 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9) were incredibly strong. His ERA was inflated by a poor hit rate, which was the result of poor luck (.391 BABIP). His groundball/flyball tendencies were pretty neutral at 1.13.

Obviously, the Reds looked beyond merely his ERA and WHIP in their decision to promote him to double-A Carolina. It didn't take long before he was making quick work of the more advanced level of competition. In 36.2 innings, Klinker posted a 2.95 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, and 9.8 K/9. Despite his gaudy ratios, his FIP was only 4.29, as he was aided by a BABIP of .249 and a strand rate of 89.0%. So, he wasn't quite as strong as it appears at first blush, but it wasn't long before he was bumped up the ladder yet again.

For triple-A Louisville, Klinker worked 29.0 innings and posted a 2.48 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9, and 9.8 K/9. His FIP was a stellar 2.68 and both his BABIP (.298) and strand rate (73%), so his performance wasn't aided by luck, as his component stats were just as strong as his overall stats.

The surprising part of Klinker's performance in 2009 was that he posted the highest strikeout rate of both his collegiate and professional career. He had not previously topped the 9.0 K/9 mark at any level, but managed to do it against the advanced hitters in double-A and triple-A. His continued refinement of his offspeed pitches has improved his ability to generate swings-and-misses when he needs them. Not many pitchers improve as the competition improves, but the effectiveness of his riding fastball against wood bats and the continued development of his offspeed pitches has enabled Klinker to do just that.

Pitching Mechanics and Repertoire

Klinker features a two-seam fastball that he can effectively ride-in on the hands of right-handed hitters. This is actually a pitch that is more effective in the professional ranks, as it can break the wood bats. At the collegiate level, a pitch in on the hands can still be muscled into the outfield for a hit with the metal bats. His command of the fastball is one of his biggest strengths on the hill. He also utilizes a somewhat loopy 12-to-6 curveball. He has tightened it up and refined it as of late, which has improved its effectiveness, but it's still more of a slurve than a hard-biting off-speed pitch. He also uses a circle-changeup and has experimented with a split-fingered fastball to improve his effectiveness against left-handed hitters. Early in his professional career Klinker struggled to find a consistently effective offspeed pitch, but he has begun to improve his secondary offerings.

Klinker utilizes simple, straightforward mechanics that don't involve any wasted motion. He is very economical in his movements. He stands tall on the mound and begins his windup with a small step back while bringing his hands up to his chest. He then shifts his right foot down onto the rubber and brings his left leg up into his leg kick.

Klinker's leg kick rises up higher than parallel with the ground and his toe points down to the ground. At the apex of his leg kick he incorporates good hip rotation to build up energy to impart on the baseball. As he uncoils his leg kick and begins to drive towards homeplate, he gets a good push off the rubber. As he strides toward the plate, his glove-side arm rises up into a higher than normal position and his glove actually rises well up above shoulder level.

Klinker's arm slot is a three-quarter arm-slot, which prevents him from maximizing his ability to throw on a downward plane, but certainly seems to work for him. In addition, his arm action involves a slight cross-fire action.

His plant foot on the stride lands slightly closer to the thirdbase side, which is a slightly closed-off position. The position of his plant foot requires him to throw slightly across his body, which also results in him falling off to the firstbase side on his follow-through. Despite falling off to the first base side, Klinker generally maintains good balance and body control throughout the delivery.

There is one potential flaw in Klinker's delivery. The timing in Klinker's delivery is somewhat off, as his upper body isn't in sync with his lower body. His pitching arm lags behind his lower body, as evidenced by the photo to the right. In a perfectly timed delivery, the pitching arm is up in throwing position when the plant foot lands. In Klinker's case, his arm is horizontal to the ground, rather than vertical with the ball up around head level. The arm lag robs the throwing motion of efficiency, as the momentum drive towards the plate has to wait on the arm to catch up. It's not surprising that Klinker's timing is off, as taller pitchers frequently struggle to maintain good body control over the longer levers and torso. Despite being a taller pitcher, Klinker doesn't struggle very much with consistency in his delivery, but his arm does tend to lag a bit.

There are some really impressive photographs showing Klinker's pitching mechanics during a side throwing session available here.

Conclusion

Klinker may be the rare case of a late bloomer who has earned legitimate prospect status through hard work and study. As he continues to develop and improve his ability to locate his secondary offerings, he could continue to build on his breakthrough level of performance. While both he and Logan Ondrusek made stops at three levels in 2009, Klinker's much more impressive strikeout and walk ratios and the fact that he worked as a starter make him a better bet to sustain his breakout performance. Still, the 2010 season will provide an important data point on Klinker's career trajectory. It'll be interesting to see if he can maintain his new level of performance or if he'll regress and give back some of the gains he made in 2009.

Klinker is the type of pitcher who gets the absolute most out of his abilities, which when coupled with his refined secondary offerings is enough to land him at #15 on the list.

14 comments:

I really wasn't that high on klinker until some time last year when i heard an interview with mesoraco. He was asked who was the best pitcher he had caught for was, and instantly said klinker. He said he had great stuff and just knew how to pitch, so from then on Ive really liked him. Hopefully we will see him in Cincinnati sometime next year

Yeah, he's a prospect that sneaks up on you. I'll be interested to see if he can sustain his success into 2010. He's a cerebral pitcher with a good understanding of both what it takes to be successful and how he can effectively utilize his stuff to get there.

It's pretty remarkable how far and fast Klinker has come in his professional career. I'd like to see him get a full season at triple-A and a September call-up, but first we have to make sure he can sustain his performance from 2009.

I have to agree with Smitty. I don't think it's a problem at all. His birthday is in October, so he was 24 years old for all of the 2009 season and will be 25 for all of the 2010 season.

He was a draft eligible senior coming out of college, but managed to make it to triple-A in just over two full seasons of minor league ball. That's not bad at all. He should head back to triple-A to start 2010 and if he performs like he did in 2009, then he's on track to make his MLB debut in late 2010 at the age of 25.

And, Smitty makes a good point in that pitchers can take longer to develop. Position players have a much more linear development curve. Their development is largely steady and incremental. If a position prospect doesn't progress at an expected rate and doesn't perform well in the age vs. level department, then he's likely not going to be a big time player.

That's not always the case for pitching prospects, as they can develop in fits and spurts. A different pitch, different grip, or different arm slot can drastically improve a pitcher's performance. In addition, taller pitchers sometimes struggle with consistency.

Pitching prospects are more volatile, but that means that they can emerge later than is expected. It's possible that Klinker regresses in 2010, but it's equally possible that he maintains his level of performance.

I've got him ranked at 15 because his ratios are legit. His performance last year wasn't a fluke and it wasn't luck. He earned it and it could be sustainable. If it is, then he's potentially got a big league future.

Bet you're glad you left some spots open in your list so you can add Aroldis Chapman. I'm thinking he's landed in an ideal situation in Cincinnati. The language barrier won't be a problem, as he'll have Mario Soto coaching him, and Cueto, Volquez, and Cordero mentoring him. He'll be in a relatively low pressure situation being in a small market as well. Can't wait to follow his progress in the minors this season.

To be honest, all the spots were already accounted for, so I may have to move some guys around on the list or get creative and add in another slot.

I haven't yet made up my mind about the signing. It's exciting to see the Reds make a bold move, but I'm also wary about the track records of Cuban prospects. I don't know if the risk/reward balance tips in our favor. I'll have to dig into it a bit further before I make up my mind. Still, at the very least, he makes the farm system much more interesting.

I was just thinking about that. I'll have to do some more research on him to figure out where exactly he slots in. I'll certainly have to move some guys around. It's nice to see the Reds continue to be so aggressive in the international free agent market.

Still, I can't help be a bit concerned when an intelligent, big market organization like the Boston Red Sox deems it to be too risky. Regardless, this is the type of move that the Reds rarely make: a move that really "moves the needle" around Major League Baseball. The Reds haven't made a splash like this since Josh Hamilton.

Its really not too risky, from what i understand his contract is spread out over 10 years. Thats only 2.5 million a year( i know im being extremly lazy not looking up the actual numbers) but for that, if he is at least a good lefty out of the pen then its worth it. I seen a video on him and his stuff ir nasty, he has good command of his fastball and throws it with both 2 seam, 4 seam, and cut action. His slurve has good hard break, and quite a bit slower with the same arm action as his fastball. very good pitch. His change is really slow (77ish) and has potential to be ridiculous if he works with soto on it. I personally love this signing, its really nice

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Blessed (or is it cursed) to be a Reds fan. I've loved baseball as long as I can remember. Played it until they told me I couldn't anymore. Now, always thinking on it.
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