Before going any further and to stop my mailbox getting filled up with mails in Spanish that cast allusions on the marital status of my parents at the moment of my conception, I'm not a fan of Keiko and feel no sympathy towards her. Neither am I a fan of Ollanta Humala. In my opinion neither candidate left in the running for the Presidency of Peru will make a good President or be good for their country. Basically, I have no dog in this race. So with that said, why do I think she wins?

1) A high proportion of the undecided votes are in the higher socioeconomic groups. This has been noted by all the polling companies in their recent surveys.

2) In other words, due to the close numbers that the two candidates are polling and the significant percentage of undecideds still out there, those are the people that are left to decide who wins. It's commonly called "the Lima vote" in Peru and the basic idea all through round two has been one of whoever wins Lima, wins the job.

3) Every time Ollanta Humala has made progress in the polls, the Lima Stock Market has suffered. True yesterday, with its 5.17% drop, after the weekend polls showed Humala closing the gap between himself and Keiko Fujimori to within the margin of error on most polls and even holding a slight lead in one of them.

4) The live TV debate was generally viewed as a tie by observers in Peru (bar the rabid supporters on either side of the fight).

5) In the end the middle class in Peru is much like any other middle class around the world. They're obsessed by money and either getting rich or staying rich.

6) It won't have escaped their attention that, so far at least, Humala up = stock market down, their all-important pension fund down, Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN) currency down. Neither would it have escaped their attention that Keiko up = indicators positive.

7) For many of these middle class, the idea of announcing that they will vote for another Fujimori is too embarrassing to be made public, but they plan to do it anyway in the privacy of the voting booth. This is the so-called "hidden vote" factor.

After returning from a State visit Charles De Gaulle once famously said about Brazil that, "Ce n'est pas un pais serieux". Just goes to show how times change...or how perhaps he should have visited Buenos Aires on the same trip and got a bit of context.

The latest from Puno is that the strike/protest/roadblocks have been suspended by the local protesters in the region, in the wordsof this report out a couple of hours ago "at least until after the second round Presidential election vote", which is this Sunday June 5th.

The decision to suspend the protest activities was taken this morning, Monday May 30th, by the activists. Apparently there are a couple of roadblocks left in place, but those are expected to be lifted in the next few hours as well.

UPDATE: Interestingly, that report linked above seems to have been pulled by the website. Following the Google feed, there are now conflicting reports on whether the protests will go ahead or whether they'll be suspended today. But either way, BCM.v at Santa Ana isn't going to have a happy time of it. That was explained yesterday in IKN108.

...go here for the overview of the 43-101 technical report on the property that was published in 2007

But in summary it's big, under-explored and has already returned very decent drill numbers for zinc, lead and silver. Also, if you check outthe MEM resume on environmental matters for the Mario property, you'll find out more about its exact location and see that the locals are welcoming of new mining activity in the area. Overall, it reminds me a lot of Caylloma

The latest poll from Imasen and published in La Republica was supposed to be published tomorrow, but it got leaked and so La Republica, on this page, has confirmed the numbers.

According to this poll, Ollanta Humala has a slight lead. We note that the newspaper in question supports the Ollanta Humala campaign (about the only serious paper to do so). Nevertheless, this is the first poll to give Ollanta a lead in the last couple of weeks, with the big live TV debate up tomorrow evening (that you out there in the world can watch of CNN's Spanish language service, CNN Expansion, so I understand).

It's going down to the wire, be in no doubt. By the way, separate from the normal IKN Weekly issue 108, subscribers will get a full report on the debate proceedings either late Sunday evening or before the bell Monday morning.

Need a read this Memorial Day weekend? Look no further than this: You click on the one you fancy, you place your totally free no-strings-attached order, you receive a useful report that's bound to make you into an instant millionaire....or something like that. Anyway, they are free and they are useful and they will improve your knowledge in the field you choose, so order more than one if you want. Have nice day.

There were in total 56 entries (and a big thank you to all who took time to send in), which must be some kind of record round these parts. The judges (well...just me really, cos I like to be all despot dictator occasionally) had a lot on their plates, but eventually whittled them down to the following. So we'll do a reverse order podium medal thingy and start with...

...THIRD PLACE, BRONZE MEDAL, A WHOOP AND A YEEHAW IS AWARDED TO RICHARD G (of Mexfiles fame) with this:

NOW SECOND PLACE, SILVER MEDAL, ROUNDS OF APPLAUSE AND AUTOGRAPH SESSIONS goes to reader JM with this mighty effort:

BUT as Highlander so rightly pointed out THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE so it time for the roll on the drums, the smell of the crowd, the roar of the greasepaint and FIRST PLACE, THE WINNER, THE CHIKKIN DINNAH, OWNER OF THE GOLD MEDAL AND RECIPIENT OF THE U$50PRIZE goes to PHILIP K with this entry:

Philip, you're breathtakingly good and I'm left in awe. A deserved win, sir.

We got Keiko leading Ollanta again but this poll is WAY closer than recent ones from other companies...a real live too-close-to-call, with nine days to go. Sunday will see the final big crop of polls before the one week pre-election period when no polls can be published there. Then the vote, Sunday June 5th. Then they can all STFU...please.

A short note from local Puno media "Los Andes", linked hereand translated by your humble scribe:

The panorama in the city of Puno is devastating at this time. Empty streets, closed markets, public buildings destroyed, the population nervous after the social protest yesterday descended into violence.

Public telephones have also been attacked and windows of private buildings such as hotels and restaurants have been smashed.

The customs and immigration office (Aduanas) in the city of Puno is destroyed, with damage wherever you look. Cars destroyed, doors broken, furniture borken and littered about the floor and warehouses broken into all through last night.

Police presence yesterday in the customs and immigration office was practically zero. It's not known what will happen in the next few hours in the city while the population is still covered in uncertainty.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Things are not good in and around the main square of the city of Puno. Tear gas currently being used against the protesters, who in turn have raided/sacked government offices. Reports of buildings partly on fire as well. There's also a truck burning in the square, set on fire by the protesters.

In IKN106, May 15th, I wrote the following words. Sadly, I was right.

I’ve seen this movie before, ladies and gentlemen, it does not have a happy ending and no matter whether you approve or disapprove of the protesters, these people are quite willing to make this into a long-standing roadblock and aggravate authorities until troops are sent in and blood is shed

Update: Pleasant little evening bonfire...made from the furniture taken from the Puno tax office. H/T gabo_el

Sketchy reports of government workers being taken hostage, too. (Update on this...seemingly unfounded)

Now 7:30pm and reports of calm returning to the streets.

More pretty bonfires in the centre of Puno tonight

8:15pm Peru time (that's 9:15pm EST): Things are now worse, with reports that the local branch of the customs and immigration office (located just off the main square) is on fire, blazing away from many windows and on the way to near total destruction. Protesters have blocked the roads around the offices and won't let anyone through to put out the flames. Just down the road, reports are of looting in a electrical appliances store (white goods, etc)

Main dude Setty found this over at the propublica blogand sent your humble servant the link. It's so but so very but very good that the only thing for it is to do A KAPTION KOMPETITION (insert multiple exclamation marks here):

So c'mon dudettes and dudes, get yer thinking caps on and tell us what Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Barry or 'Chelle (or combo of or all) are saying in this photo from 2009. Send in your best shot to.....

otto.rock1 AT gmail DOT com

...and we'll run the winner in 48 hours. As for a prize, your author gives the winner U$50 to the charity or good cause of choice (preferably by PayPal). Have at it, begad!

This photo was taken at 4am this morning and the temperature at the time, I am reliably informed, was minus 6ºc. There were around 5000 people in this plaza and another 3000 in the plaza 300m away (also reliable info from eyewitnesses).

I'm amazed by the idiots up North that think this problem is going to go away and that BCM.v will get its permit to operate Santa Ana. Unimaginable depths of ignorance about South America on display by people with far more money than sense. Yeah I'm talking about you, dumbass Canadian equities analyst.

A new poll out today by Datum and published in Peru 21 has Keiko up half a point from last Sunday. Here's the chart that shows today's numbers (red) and last weekend's poll (grey).

Note that the Datum/Peru 21 combo is known to be anti-Humala in nature and more reasonable pollster Ipsos/Apoyo had Keiko's lead at under three points last weekend. With that said, the trend shown here can't be good for Humala. The latest Datum poll was taken on May 22nd, asked 1214 people on a national urban/rural basis and has a margin of error of +/- 2.8%. Data from here.

And now, get ready to have fun with your own personal fave goldbug tinfoilhat conspiracy theorist. Instructions as follows:

1) Approach tinfoilhat goldbug knucklehead of choice.

2) Point out to him/her that recently, when the dollar went up so did gold.

3) Point out to him/her that today the flipside is also true, the dollar is dropping and so is gold.

4) Remind your preferred target about all those time s/he told you about the massive financial conspiracy and how rocketing gold in the face of a plummeting dollar would save us all from the death spiral and all that jazz.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Out just a few minutes ago is the Cid/Gallup Latinoamérica voter intention poll for Nicaragua's Presidential election, due to happen November 6th this year. Here's the chart...

...and incumbent Daniel Ortega is ahead. Second place ten points behind is radio station owner (hmm...that might be useful in the campaign) and congress member Fabio Gadea. Third comes ex Prez Arnoldo Alemán, who did the job between 1997 and 2002 and for some reason wants to do it again and the rest are noise. Data fromhere.

Not so often that you get a Canadian brokerage analyst sticking such a high upside target on a gold stock, but that's what happened today with George Albino of GMP (along with associate Matthew Sheppard). The stock is Rio Alto Mining (RIO.v) (disclosure, your humble scribe is long RIO.v so generally agrees with the call) and Albino says it's going to $5.75, which represents an upside of 151% to the $2.29 of right here right now.

Rio Alto’s key asset is the La Arena gold/gold-copper project in northern Peru – it is located in a highly mineralized area which includes Barrick’s 1mm oz/yr Lagunas Norte mine - Rio purchased the property from IAMGold.

We believe that RIO, as a brand new producer, represents a de-risked development story trading at early development-stage multiples. In our view the company’s current market valuation is supported by the base case oxide dump leach project (which poured its first gold on May 6).

We see 3 principal sources of upside - the potential for significantly higher grades in the oxide deposit, development of the deeper copper-gold project and the significant exploration targets elsewhere on the La Arena.

La Arena – already producing with tonnes of porphyry potential

La Arena is located in northern Peru - infrastructure is outstanding and the mine lies immediately on a (mainly) paved road that links the mining town of Huamachuco. A major power line crosses the mine property within a few kilometers of the La Arena pit – there is sufficient capacity on this line with low (probably <$0.06/kwh) costs.

At the 24k tpd rate and at the average reserve grade of 0.44g/t, gold production is expected to average 100k oz/yr. Production guidance for calendar 2011 is for 75k oz. LOM production, based on current reserves, is projected at 640k oz.

Past work by Rio Alto suggests that grades obtained by diamond drilling may significantly understate actual in situ gold grade. During the early years of production at its nearby Lagunas Norte mine, Barrick indicated that actual mining grades were often significantly higher than reserve grade.

The porphyry copper-gold deposit provides, in our view, most of the value at La Arena. The company expects to complete a feasibility study by year-end 2012, and anticipates production beginning in 2015. The PFS study by Coffey Mining examined a 24k tpd project that is expected to cost approximately $300mm to build and would give annual production of 60m lb/yr copper and 31k oz/yr gold over 21 years mining a 180m tonne deposit with an extremely low 1.1:1 stripping ratio.

We reiterate that, in our opinion, the oxide project alone supports the current market cap of the company and that the real driver of the share price is in the copper-gold project. We also believe the election in Peru will end speculation on the potential impact of a socialist incumbent. We initiate coverage of Rio Alto with a BUY rating and a $C5.75 target price representing 75% of our NAV6% using GMP commodity prices.

The changeover to the new IFRS accounting standards has caused plenty of question marks in the investment community, especially (according to my mailbox at least) in the junior and exploration mining sector. This humble corner of cyberspace therefore recommends that you click on the following link and get your absolutely free and no-strings attached copy of the PDFoffered up by EPICOR entitled "Smooth transition: Preparing for IFRS" that will tell you all you need to know about the subject. This is useful source material for anyone that has so far been confused about the changes in accounting procedures and reporting, so get yours today. Here's the blurb:

Find out everything you need to know about International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) format.

The SEC proposes that 2014 be the first year for US registered companies to file their financial statements in International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) format. This executive brief covers how to effectively manage this upcoming transition to IFRS. You will learn how to form the IFRS transition team, set the roles of the IFRS project team members and use your Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) software to manage this transition.

...went out to subscribers about 15 minutes ago, a hour before the opening bell, containing news'n'views on three stocks we're watching closely in these heady days, plus confirmation that yesterday's purchases happened. Your humble scribe hopes that the info contained is useful.

And indeed, it sure looks like Hugo & Co. aren't going to take this lying down. Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez is appearing on live TV right now and he's already said that although Venezuela won't cut oil supplies to Citgo, it may cut sales to other outlets in the USA. And as for Hugo himself, here's a link to the tweet he put out less than an hour ago (as your humble scribe writes), the translation of which is:

"Sanctions against Bolivar's Fatherland? Imposed by the imperialist gringo government?

Well, they're welcome, Mr. Obama! Don't forget that we are the children of Bolivar!"

We've had the right wing in the US calling for sanctions against Venezuela for the longest time and Dubya never took the bait. But here we are with the USA under a CommieLefty President and the far right have got what they wanted all this time. Meanwhile, your author has that old refrain going round his head of "Careful what you wish for....."

Venezuela Rejects U.S. Sanctions Against PDVSA

Published: 05/24/2011

The Government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela has learned of the decision announced by the Department of State of the United States to impose sanctions against our oil national company, Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), as part of a unilateral law targeting the Islamic Republic of Iran known as CISADA.

The Bolivarian Government expresses its strongest rejection to this decision since it constitutes a hostile action on the fringes of international law that violates the principles of the Charter of the United Nations.

The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and its revolution have a strong, independent and sovereign oil industry able to operate and permanently fulfill its commitments. Faced with this aggression, Venezuela further ratifies its oil independence and sovereignty.

The Government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela is undertaking a general assessment of the situation to determine how these sanctions affect the operational capacity of our oil industry and, therefore, the supply of 1.2 million barrels of oil per day to the U.S. Pending this assessment, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela reserves itself the most adequate answer to this imperialist aggression.

The revolutionary Government calls on all the Venezuelan people, laborers and especially the oil workers, to stay alert and mobilized in defense of our PDVSA and the sacred sovereignty of the homeland.