Friday, January 29, 2010

Where should we poll next week?

We haven't had a lot of democracy around here lately in deciding where to poll because January has been quite a month, with a lot of stuff coming up that we just had to do rather than letting you choose. So to rectify that we're going to try something a little different. Please give us your suggestions over the weekend about where we should poll next weekend- statewide polls or house districts- and we'll pick finalists, let you vote, and do the top two for the week of February 8th.

As usual here's the stuff we're most interested in- races where there hasn't been a lot of polling, races where an incumbent may be more vulnerable than the conventional wisdom suggests, and obviously races that will be competitive.

113 comments:

FL-8 would be fun: how is controversial Rep. Alan Grayson doing compared to his less known foes? And do voters appreciate having a "Democrat with guts"? And since this is a swing district polling for Governor, Senator, and Obama's approval could be interesting as well.

VA-5 with goode as an independent, SC-2 to gauge movement from your poll in spring, KS-4 to see if Raj Goyle's money and name ID is doing anything for him, NH-1 to see Guinta's strength, and TN-6 to see Herron's strength.

VA-11, Perriello and Nye are getting all the attention in VA. Plus the will he/won't he of Boucher, but anything short of cinematic disaster will see Boucher return and VA-2 & VA-5 already lean GOP and with a headwind neither incumbent is likely to return.

The far more compelling race is the DC Suburb/swing district held by Conolly and facing two solid GOP challengers. A peak at the landscape here will be very informative on the '10 prospects of other incumbents like Kanjorski & Murphy(in PA) & Maffei (NY).

I think that another NY-23 poll matching up for November's Doug Hoffman in a straight matchup with Bill Owens with no third candidate would be able to show where things are up to for Tea Party candidates and specifically him.

We must see how things are in upsate new york, b/c if GOP is doing very well there, where they lost many seats recently, that means that they're going to do well outside of the South too and even win back congress.

I second FL-08 -Grayson- and would love to throw in Montana.Prime battleground for 2012, potentially vulnerable GOP House at-large incumbent (DailyKos had his favorables at 46/45 in March 09), and you could test him against Tester for 2012, and the favorables of Schweitzer and Baucus.

VA-5- Perriello voted for the big three agenda items last year, health care, cap and trade, and the stimulus. He also won the seat on a razor thin margin in '08. I'd like to find out if he has any kind of a chance in this national climate. Polling on the GOP primary there would be fascinating to see as well.

IN-Sen- With the Rasmussen poll showing Evan Bayh vulnerable, it'd be nice to get either a confirmation or contradiction of that poll. Even though Pence isn't running for Senate, the race looks a lot less safe for Bayh.

AZ-Sen- The new Rocky Mountain Poll showed McCain's approval at 40%, he's also facing a potentially tough primary with JD Hayworth. Is McCain actually vulnerable in the primary? In the general election? You could also poll the governor's race again. The last poll showed the Democrats doing fairly well, though now with the shift in national climate, that may no longer be true even with an unpopular incumbent in Jan Brewer.

Alabama. Again ... Is Davis making a usually conservative state blue in the governors race?

And is Shelby, who is running for reelection ... Is that race as non competitive as everyone thinks? We certainly got numbers with DeMint that were surprising.

And how about the competitive AL-02, where bright may lose in a conservative district ? And Parker Griffith in AL-05. Poll sparks to see how well he does. Then we can know a upper base for DEMS in the 5th

I'm very interested in seeing where Diane Denish stands in New Mexico governor's race next year. It would be also good to see what Obama's approval ratings are currently in NM and what they think of issues such as health care and the stimulus.

California is necessary because Boxer may be in the fight of her life if Tom Campbell is the nominee. I'm interested to know the status of the race, Boxer's approval ratings, and whether the analysts at PPP think that it is within the realm of possibility that Boxer could be unseated

MICHIGAN!!! There's been a lot of gubernatorial polling, but barely any presidential approval polling. How popular is Debbie Stabenow, since she'll be on the ballot with Obama in 2012? Mark Schaeur and Peters? Schaeur barely beat an ultra-conservative representing a traditionally Michigan moderate Republican district that Obama beat McCain in. A tea party approval poll would be interesting. Most of the populism in Michigan is on the left, but we have a strong Christian right in the western part of the state, and it would be interesting to see how blue collar whites who are recoiling from Obama in the midwest like the anti-union, anti-auto bailout tone of the tea partiers. I would guess Obama's approval rating is probably stronger with whites here than in Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania.

IN Sen: "A former Republican congressman, John Hostettler, has already indicated he will challenge Bayh. In that match-up, it’s Bayh with a three-point edge, 44% to 41%." Bayh also only got 44% against Pence's 47%. Bayh also only got 45% against a freshman state senator, who only polled 33%. (Rasmussen Jan 25)

IN-8: Hostettler lost a tough race in the Democrat wave of 2006 against a Democrat who deliberately ran as a pro-life fiscal conservative. Then this "pro-life" "conservative" crafts a "compromise" abortion amendment for the House health care bill, instead of just letting the horrid bill die. For a Democrat to so flagrantly violate his campaign promises (and for what? socialized medicine??) should logically be unforgivable in a "bible belt" rural Indiana district. Since Ellsworth won 61% in 2006 and 64% in 2008, his vulnerability would speak volumes about what conservatives and independents think about Democrats who say one thing to their constituents... and then go and vote for Pelosi's radical left-wing agenda.

Coakley, who was at least honest about how she would vote on health care, lost a state that Obama had won 62%-36%. Ellsworth, who misrepresented himself as a "pro-life" "conservative" before sponsoring a pro-abortion "compromise" to move Obamacare along, can make no such claim about his honesty. As a candidate who ran as a "pro-life" "conservative" but became Pelosi's lapdog, Ellsworth is exactly the kind of dishonest, corrupt dealing candidate that independents are turning against nationwide.

Check out some potentially-vulnerable Republican districts. Open IL-10 seat, CA-03 (Dan Lungren), NE-02 (Lee Terry), PA-15 (Charlie Dent), and WA-08 (Dave Reichert) are all being seriously contested by Democrats. The open KS-04 seat would be interesting too.

How about some PA congressional seats? This state is likely to have a lot of active, competitive races - as many as 7 or 8? - along w/ the Specter spectacle and gov. race.

I would pick PA-11: Kanjorski. His opponent is well known, so the residents are likely to be familiar w/ both sides, pre-primary. I might offer that the relative data would underscore how strong/weak other senior democrats in Congress may be, in a tough environment/competitive district.

NJ-12 Rush Holt vs. his two prospective opponents, Mayor Mike Halfacare and Scott Sipprelle. He had a well publicized intense town hall and it can show if the Brow effect has spread through other Blue States.

Washington's 3rd CD primary. Open seat in a swing district, plus the added intrigue of of Washington's top 2 primary system where all the candidates are on the same ballot with the top 2 advancing to the general regardless of party.

I would also like to see a MN-Gov poll but with 20 some candidates and 3 major parties there are probably to many permutations.

Vermont's governor's race! there's a five(!) way democratic primary, three big dogs, Sec of state Deb Markowitz, former LT Doug Racine and senate president pro temp. Peter Shumlin. 2006 lt-gov nominee Matt Dunne and Sen/. Susan Bartlett are also running. General election number's against LT governor Brian Dubie should also be included to get the full details of the race.

I want to see Charlie Crist polled as a democrat, I also want a poll of him in a primary against Meek and the others. Or try polling something we have yet to see, like Vermont gov or Grayson. Also I would like to see some more Bayh polling.

I would like to see the Floida General Senate too, with Christ as a Democrat attached. Also Colorodo, Pennsylvania, Indiana with Pence still included, Arizona general, primary, and each one showing both Hayworth and McCain as independants/third party. I would particularly like the florida and Arizona elections, but all would be great.

I second LA-02. Is Cao really DOA? Or does Obama calling him one of his favorite Republican's help him? Is Cedric Richmond really as heavily favored to win the Dem primary as everyone thinks? Could also throw in a NOLA mayor poll if it is going to be released in time (first election is Feb. 6, with run-off in March unless Landrieu gets 50.1% in the primary)

I'm interested in WA polling,too, but I'd rather see Murray compared to declared candidates than to big name Republicans who have declared they are not candidates. Reichert is firm that he is running for re-election to Congress and Rossi has said he would turn down a draft.

I'd like to see polling about WA 3rd Congressional race where Baird's retirement leaves an open seat in a swing district.

TX gov race looks like it's getting interesting with Debra Medina campaign growing leaps and bounds also it is very topical so makes sense for PPP to poll there and the poll will get a lot of attention for the firm.

How about Missouri-4th ... you know, Ike Skelton's seat. I'd like to see how he's doing after his votes on cap & trade and the failed stimulus. MMX FLEX spotlighted this campaign and believes that Ike might be facing his toughest challenge since 1982 (redistricting year).

I would suggest a poll of the NM-3 race. There's an interesting contest shaping up in New Mexico's District 3, with Iraq veteran and Liberty Movement candidate Adam Kokesh looking like a good bet to win the Republican nomination.

New Mexico third would be my favorite, where Adam Kokesh has been running a well-funded but unconventional bid against Ben Ray Lujan.

Second pick is Oklahoma fourth, Tom Cole versus RJ Harris. RJ is better funded than many opponents Cole has had since 04 and is running as a tea partier in the primary. Some internal polling has indicated it is competitive.