At Your Own Discretion

Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, reveals his first tactical short of 2019. While he’s bearish on the overall market, one sector in particular has his attention. He reviews his thesis and lays out the trade in this interview with Brian Price. Filmed on January 15, 2019.
“The Workshop” will be hosted on February 4th, 2019 at the Bowery Ballroom in New York. Register for tickets here: https://www.realvision.com/theworkshop

Thank you RV/Brian for bringing "The Trade" section back to a disciplined process, whereas before it was slipping. Firstly, Tony's view and rational are reasonably argued and nicely contrarian with a healthy dose of humility. Secondly, and more importantly, you have reinserted the discipline of what "The Trade" used to have...namely, specific entry, target, stop loss, catalyst, and time frame, in a presentation that is brief and to the point. Anything other than non-specific entries/exits/stops/catalysts is just conversation/not a trade--which is fine, but just belong in the other RV sections--so thank you for making this (and hopefully future "The Trade" episodes) actionable and specific. Great work Tony and RV

Thanks again for another great one Tony. Your presentations are one of the reasons I remain a long time early RV subscriber. Giving the XLY top holdings was a nice touch and presenting your Macro and individual stock reasoning is just flat “excellent communicating”. If only I hadn’t made the Canopy trade maybe I could have afforded the Plane ride and admission to the NY extravaganza (hopefully you know that last bit was tongue in cheek). No one can ever say you do “small beer”—now I’ve got to take on Jeff Bezos...with Elon’s claw marks still requiring salve.....on well, once more into the breach!

Thanks Tony. This is really realistic and reasonable.
If you go one step further, I think the following sub-sectors will probably have more problems on the course of this year:
- Motels and Hotels
- Toys and Games and Hobbies

I believe your trade is also reasonable because the earning slowdown due to worldwide debt levels. In Mr. Druckenmiller’s interview on RVTV he wants rates higher, but to slip them in as opposed to forecasting them. From the interview (Well worth watching again.): "We have this massive debt problem. If we don't normalize, it's going to accelerate and cause a bigger problem down the road. If we do normalize, we're going to have a problem. And unfortunately, we're going to have a much bigger problem than we would have if we had normalized four or five years ago". In addition, “, free money has destroyed price signals”. He did say that the Fed would go one too far, and then it could back up, but I do not believe he meant at today's Fed rates. The tug-of-war between lower rates for the stock market and the higher rates for bonds is the long-term dynamic that will drive the market for years. I feel the lower current long-term US interest rates are in part due to US bonds being a safe haven. Time will tell. DLS