personal blog from fALk v010

21.02.09

European Banking System needs 16 Trillion Euros... Collapse near.

An article in The Telegraph has tripped off the internet. They originally reported that the European Union needs 16.3 Trillion Euros very very soon (end of this month?) to stabilize the banking system. Then they pulled the number from the headline - but lots of bloggers where already on it by then - then 24 hours later they put the headline back in - I have been following this and saw the double change happening - not only did they took out the number in the headline but also originally removed it from the article. After it was clear that there where screenshots and google caches out the number got back in but the tone of the article was softened. They cite a secret report circulating through EU governments about severity of the problem. 16 Trillion is more then double the GDP of the EU - it means the only way to find 16 Trillion is printing it - that in return means a hyperinflation on the level of Simbabwe. Germany - the article says - is the only country in the EU at the moment that does not need a total or partial bailout (no its not about banks anymore its about countries) but since its in the EU its in the same boat as everyone else.
This together with the S&P under the panic point of 775 since yesterday - we have a hell of an "interesting" week in front of us. Maybe it was not just pure coincidence that the german CSU Consumerminister (? verbraucherministerin) Ilse Aigner urged germans to start hording food?

to make you all feel good and for my own sanity (meaning - its always good to know that I am not the only one thinking its all gonna crash very very soon - smarter humans then this artificial lifeform in its early stage of knowledge gathering are coming to the same conclusions):

Renowned investor George Soros said on Friday the world financial system has effectively disintegrated, adding that there is yet no prospect of a near-term resolution to the crisis.

Soros said the turbulence is actually more severe than during the Great Depression, comparing the current situation to the demise of the Soviet Union.

"We witnessed the collapse of the financial system," Soros said at a Columbia University dinner. "It was placed on life support, and it's still on life support. There's no sign that we are anywhere near a bottom."

16.02.09

Finance Minister Of Japan Drunk at G7?

Word in the tubes is that the finance minister of Japan was drunk during the recent G7 meetings - you can judge for yourself if it is true or not - I don´t really blame him. His country just announced that its economy shrunk by 12.7%.

On a related note here is the first plausible definition of what the difference between a recession and a depression is in financial terms.

Recession: The economy will recover. Just be smart and be patient.

Depression: The economy won't recover. After 10+ years, the methods of investment will be permanently changed to something significantly different.

Update: The Minister has resigned after Japanese Press put the story out big time and the Japanese Prime Minister was ashamed for his country.

19.01.09

The Oamaru Declaration of Independence

Via Citizen Renaissance comes this highly thoughtful text. A redo of the Jefferson declaration of independence by Dr. Susan Krundieck of the New Zealand Transition Towns Network. It tackles everything there is wrong in a some short paragraphs - to bad its just words again.

When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the economic bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all people are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, Justice, the pursuit of Happiness, a Healthy Natural Environment and Sustainability for ourselves, the Third Generation and the Seventh Generation.

— That to secure these rights, Organisations are instituted among Communities, deriving their just powers from the consent of the Members,

— That whenever any Form of Economy becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute a new Relationship, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Economic Relationships long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them and their environment to ruin, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Economic Constraints, and to provide new Guards for their future security and sustainability.

— Such has been the patient sufferance of this community; and such is now the necessity which constrains us to alter our former Systems of Business Growth for its own Sake and Environmental Exploitation. The history of the present Theory of Economics is a history of repeated disasters, injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over communities and the environment. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

The Growth Economy for its own Sake has exploited our talents, put us into debt, degraded our culture and eroded our relationships with the members of our community.

The Growth Economy for its own Sake has exploited mineral resources which by right should belong to people in perpetuity in order to obscenely enrich a few in the short term.

The Growth Economy for its own Sake has paved our farms, sprawled our towns, and destroyed the quality of live of our people and their children and grandchildren.

The Growth Economy for its own Sake has convinced us, for more than a century, to ignore the voice of scientific knowledge and reason in order to continue the acidification of our air and oceans through Sulphur Dioxide, Nitrous Oxides and Carbon Dioxide emissions from combustion of fossil fuels.

The Growth Economy for its own Sake has exploited the labour of people and environments that have no protection from ill use, and has persecuted people who worked for economic justice and equality.

The Growth Economy for its own Sake has assaulted the morality of our youth and treated them as a target market rather than with the respect of future citizens and community members.

The Growth Economy for its own Sake has corrupted the purpose of our governance and civic institutions, it has usurped the purpose of our curiosity and research efforts, and it has shifted the motivation for the education of our young from development of their intellect and character to exploitation of their labours for further growth of the economy.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the Transition Committee of Oamaru, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of this community, solemnly publish and declare, That this Community is, and of Right ought to be Free, that we are Absolved from all unsustainable and perverse requirements of the Growth Economy for its own Sake, and that all connection between this Community and the Growth Economy, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as a Free and Sustainable Community, we have full Power to reduce fuel and electricity consumption, restore our environment, protect our culture, nurture our agricultural assets, set aside our resources, refrain from extracting minerals, stone or fossil fuels, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Local Commerce based on our own principles and theories, and to do all other Acts and Things which Sustainable Communities may of right do.

— And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor.

10.12.08

Trust the math you will be rich and filthy.

We should have taken care of basic human needs, by taking them out of profit markets. But we haven't, and so supermarket shelves will be as empty as electronics stores, though both serve entirely different needs and demands. Governments, meanwhile, use what money they can get to prop up an insolvent financial system, whereas their prime concern should be to feed and clothe their citizens, and make sure they have shelter and clean water. If you know of a government that is looking at these issues today, I’d like to know about it.

But then there are people who believe the absolute godly math is more accurate then human peception like this person who is buying stock because they are nice and cheap now. Its by the way the same computer models that just six month ago predicted that we are over the worse spurring a lot of media articles that all will be well and fine. Meanwhile the US has seen the biggest job loss since the great depression and the S&P stock market return on investment is in its lowest category - at a point where it only was once before - yes you guessed right - in the years of the great depression.
The real math says there can not be indefinite growth there are no indefinite resources on this planet - and the only path to our survival as a whole is to reduce our consumption not increase it - you know back down to earth lifestyles where its about survival and advancement of knowledge - not how to make the quickest buck the easiest way with doing the least amount of productive work.

Banking and investing as we've known it won't be back for at least decades. The upcoming round of bank failures, which will leave very few, if any, standing, cannot be prevented. A lot of the suffering among ordinary people can, if only through using the current bail-out funds to make sure every American and European can get at least their basic needs fulfilled . But no politician anywhere is even looking at this reality, and the citizenry has been kept in the dark. It makes the implosion of entire societies an easily predictable fact.

More automatic earth goodness - Its very relieving that there are sane people out there - makes yourself not feel to insane. What we are seeing at the moment are the headlights breaking in slow motion as the 1000km/h dragster that is the kapitalistic system runs into the solid block of concrete that is our earth resources.