Egypt Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

The economy continues to recover, and growth reportedly picked up for the fourth consecutive quarter in the July-September period. In addition, the unemployment rate dipped to a multi-year low over the same period, while in October the PMI moved further towards positive territory. In early November, the IMF concluded the second review under the Extended Fund Facility. If the Executive Board signs off on the agreement, an additional USD 2 billion will be disbursed, on top of the USD 4 billion already distributed. The Fund once again praised the government’s progress in implementing reforms to reduce the size of the bloated public sector and improve the business environment. The latter will be further enhanced by the cabinet’s recent approval of executive regulations for the new investment law, which include tax breaks and faster approval processes for firms. International reserves rose to a new multi-year high in October, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the country.

Egypt Economic Growth

The economy should continue to gain momentum going forward. Recent investment and industrial licensing laws are likely to boost investment. Consumer spending should recover as inflation recedes, and the external sector will likely be strengthened by the weaker pound. However, security concerns—highlighted by the recent bombing of a mosque—will cloud the outlook. Met the why particular analysts expect GDP to expand 4.3% in FY 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.7% in FY 2019.

At its 15 November monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates steady for the third consecutive meeting, following substantial monetary tightening earlier this year to keep inflation in check.

The Emirates NBD Egypt Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 47.4 in September to 48.4 in October, still signaling a worsening in operating conditions but moving closer to the 50-point threshold that separates contraction from expansion in the non-oil producing private sector.

The Emirates NBD Egypt Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 48.9 in August to 47.4 in September, thus moving further away from the 50-point threshold that separates contraction from expansion in the non-oil producing private sector.