Ryan Ludwick to the opposite field

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During the 2008-2009 off-season, Ryan Ludwick spent the majority of his time conditioning to put on more muscle and bulking up, but he hindered his swing by doing so. Though he was also plagued by an injury, a majority of his problems arose from struggling to drive balls to the opposite field because his added bulk prevented flexibility to hit pitches on the outer half.

Let’s take a look at Ludwick’s expected regression by looking at how he declined in the fields to which he hit the ball.

2008

to LF

to CF

to RF

wOBA

.509

.354

.324

OPS

1.540

1.100

.838

wRAA

43.1

13.9

1.8

2008 = 5.7 WAR

2009

to LF

to CF

to RF

wOBA

.478

.426

.188

OPS

1.135

.992

.437

wRAA

19.1

10.6

-11.7

2009 = 1.9 WAR

Looking at the numbers, it’s clear Ludwick decreased production overall to all fields. What differs from his regression to right field as opposed to center and left is that his 2009 numbers to right weren’t even serviceable, and that’s what killed his overall value.

Ludwick showed up to 2010 Spring Training camp in a slimmer, less bulky form, and his swing has benefited immediately, showing more power hitting balls on the outer half to the opposite field. If Ludwick can improve to, say, the 2009 league average for right-handed hitters to the opposite field of a .279 wOBA, he can improve his value by about 6 runs, which is around 0.5 WAR. It may not seem like much, but if he can stay healthy, something he had trouble doing in 2009, he may improve his numbers to center and left as well, which could put him at around the three-win player that I believe he is.

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Baseball enthusiast. I analyze the game from what I consider a fair perspective: a mix of numbers and observations. The 1967 Cardinals were really awesome.