USDA projects record corn crop, cotton at 18 million bales

USDA pegs a record corn crop of 13.5 billion bushels in 2011.
The cotton crop is forecast at 18 million bales, with ending stocks at the lowest level since 1990-91.
Rice production is forecast at 211 million hundredweight, 13 percent below last year's crop.

USDA projects record corn production this season, but smaller crops for soybean and rice producers. In its May 11 Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA also projects an 18 million-bale U.S. cotton crop.

Corn

U.S. corn production is projected at a record 13.5 billion bushels, up 1.1 billion from 2010-11 due to a 4-million-acre increase in intended plantings. Corn yield is projected at 158.7 bushels per acre.

Corn use for ethanol is projected 50 million bushels higher, while domestic corn feed and residual use is projected 50 million bushels lower than 2010-11 reflecting increased availability of feed by-products from ethanol production and lower expected residual use.

U.S. corn exports for 2011-12 are projected 100 million bushels lower than last year, while U.S. corn ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected 900 million bushels higher.

Global corn production forecasts were raised 52.4-million-tons to 867.7 million tons. Global corn exports are projected higher for 2011-12 with increases for Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine. Global corn consumption is projected at a record 860.8 million tons, up 22.2 million from 2010-11. World corn ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected at 129.1 million tons, up 7 million from 2010-11.

Cotton

The U.S. cotton crop is projected at 18 million bales. Domestic mill use is projected at 3.8 million bales, the same as 2010-11, while exports were reduced due to lower U.S. supplies and increased foreign production. Ending stocks are projected at 2.5 million bales, 43 percent above 2010-11, but still the second-lowest level since 1990-91.

World ending stocks are projected to rise to nearly 48 million bales, a 13-percent increase last year. The stocks-to-use ratio of 40 percent remains relatively tight.

World consumption was reduced, due mainly to reductions for India and Pakistan. China’s imports were lowered 1.5 million bales due to a recent fall-off in demand. World ending stocks were raised nearly 1 million bales.

Rice

Rice

U.S. rice production in 2011-12 is projected at 211 million hundredweight, 13 percent below 2010-11, based on lower anticipated plantings. Average rice yield is projected at 7,033 pounds per acre, up 5 percent from last year’s heat damaged crop.

U.S. 2011-12 rice use is projected at a 236 million hundredweight, 2 percent below the previous year’s record level. U.S. domestic and residual use is projected at a near-record 127 million hundredweight, unchanged from 2010-11. U.S. rice exports are projected at 109 million hundredweight, 5 percent lower than last year.

U.S. ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected at 48.6 million hundredweight, 13 percent below the previous year. Ending stocks of long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice are 32.8 and 14.4 million hundredweight, respectively.

USDA says large domestic and global supplies and expected lower Asian prices will pressure U.S. prices in 2011-12.

Global 2011-12 rice production is projected at a record 457.9 million tons, up 6.6 million or 1.5 percent from 2010-11. Large crops are projected for most of Asia including record or near-record crops in Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Global rice consumption is projected at a record, while global exports are projected at a marketing-year record 32.2 million tons. Global ending stocks are expected to decline 900,000 tons to 96.2 million.

Soybean

Soybean production is projected at 3.285 billion bushels, down 44 million from last year due mostly to lower harvested area. Soybean yields are projected at 43.4 bushels per acre, down slightly from 2010. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 160 million bushels, down 10 million from 2010-11, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at 4.8 percent.

Soybean oil used for biodiesel production is projected at 3.5 billion pounds, up 1 billion from 2010-11 reflecting a higher biodiesel use mandate.

Wheat

All-wheat production is projected at 2.043 billion bushels, down 7 percent from 2010-11. Winter wheat production is down 4 percent, due to lower expected harvested area and yields in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

U.S. wheat supplies for 2011-12 are projected at 3 billion bushels, down 9 percent from 2010-11. Total U.S. wheat use for 2011-12 is projected down 7 percent.

U.S. wheat exports are projected at 1.050 billion bushels, down 225 million from the 2010-11 projection. U.S. ending stocks are projected at 702 million bushels, down 137 million from 2010-11 and 274 million below 2009-10.

Global wheat supplies for 2011-12 are projected 1 percent higher. Global wheat trade is expected higher in 2011-12. Global wheat consumption is projected 8.4 million tons higher. Global ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected slightly lower on the year at 181.3 million tons.