November 08, 2004

Evasive Maneuvers

UPDATE -- November 10: I think the "moral values" question on the exit polls was too vague to indicate anything useful (not to mention doubts about the polls themselves). But Paul Freedman makes the case that "moral values" didn't determine the elections, as some on the Left and Right would like to believe: The Gay Marriage Myth: Terrorism, not values, drove Bush's re-election. (Hat tip to Doug Messenger via HB List)

Did "moral values" -- in particular, the anti-gay marriage measures on ballots in 11 states this week -- drive President Bush's re-election? That's the early conventional wisdom as Democrats begin soul-searching and finger-pointing. These measures are alleged to have drawn Christian conservatives to the polls, many of whom failed to vote last time. The theory is intriguing, but the data don't support it. Gay marriage and values didn't decide this election. Terrorism did.