Bitcoin Daily Update (day 270)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

Previous analysis:“I will be watching for a bullish crossover with the 4 and 9 MA along with a breakthrough of the daily Parabolic SAR as final confirmations to enter.”Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434

Patterns: Broke through bear channel . Trigger day on Peter Brandt’s last day rule Horizontal support and resistance: S: $4,068 | R: $4,257 BTCUSDSHORTS: Breaking through the trendline line. Within a whisker of triggering my alert at 36,000 Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.1271% Short term trend (4 day MA): Made bullish crossover with 9 Medium term trend (9 day MA): Still trending down with price above = neutral Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Trending down at $5,432 Overall trend: Long term is firmly bearish . Medium is neutral. Once it flattens / trends up then short term trends will be bullish . Volume: All green volume (buying) is less than the major selling volume . Biggest volume spike was on Nov 20th and the bottom of that candle is at $4,343. Therefore there should be significant resistance as the market makers look to exit positions from 11/20. FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909 Candlestick analysis: Long legged doji kept me away from long that I was planning on. Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud is fully bullish . 4h cloud is thick and currently being tested for resistance. TD’ Sequential: G2 briefly traded above G1. If you took that entry then TD rules would put the stop below the G1 or below the prior R9. Visible Range: Testing high volume node from $4,000 – $4,600 Price action: 24h: +2.03% Bollinger Bands: MA at $4,847 Trendline: Would really like to see a throwback to the bear channel at ~$3,700 before bouncing (mainly because that would provide a low risk long entry) Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Was fully bullish . Has starting to flatten out and is threatening to turn down. Current candle finding resistance from MA and recent death cross with the 9 indicates an exhausted bull trend to me. Parabolic SAR: At $3,447 | As soon as we brokethrough the SAR we quickly pulled back. Wasn’t expecting that action. RSI: 1h has bear divStochastic: Diverging in bullish manner Last Day Rule: Trigger day occurred on today’s candle when it traded above yesterday’s high ($4,343)

Summary: I was planning on entering a long today if / when the green 2 traded above the green 1 which is also when the daily SAR was violated. I wasn’t at my desk when that occurred and I didn’t have a stop order in place.

Both were fortunate for me because the price quickly retraced below resistance and formed a doji . Even though there was a bullish cross with the 4 and 9 MA’s I decided to pass on a long entry due to the doji at resistance.

Now I am expecting / watching for a throwback to retest the bear trendline for support. There will be significant support from $3,600 – $3,750 and that is where I am hoping to build a small long position.

The 1h chart agrees with that outlook and makes a pullback in the next 24 hours look likely (see daily trend above).

If we do pull back to $3,600 – $3,750 and find support then we would be primed to create a double bottom / Bulkowski Big W pattern. That is my most likely outcome for the next month and I intend to position myself accordingly.

If we continue to rally from here then I am okay with missing out on this bounce and I will start making plans to sell the bounce. If we fall to $3,600 and do not find support then I will take a stop in the $3,450 area.