New cardinals to shape papal field

Pope John Paul II's creation of 31 cardinals this week has changed the possibilities for the election of his successor, and even greater moves may be in store with expectations that he could reconfigure his main collaborators.

Many heads of Vatican offices have offered their resignations either because they are obliged to every five years or have hit the 75-year retirement age.

This year a visiting churchman, conversing with John Paul II, is reported to have mentioned a certain cardinal, adding "he's widely tipped as your successor". John Paul's reply was said to be "my successor hasn't yet been made a cardinal".

No one can say whether his successor will be chosen from among the new batch of cardinals of whom 26 of the 31 are electors. Cardinals aged over 80 cannot participate in elections. In all, 59 are over 80. But it is certain that they will have an effect on the next papal election.

The addition of six new Italian cardinals increased their power significantly among the 135 electors. Previously, with 22 electors, they were already by far the largest national group.

In the last election, the Italian vote was split between two candidates, which helped the election of the first non-Italian in 455 years.

Some cardinals favour a return to an Italian after the extraordinary pontificate of the Polish-born pope. John Paul has excelled at spectacular initiatives but it is thought an Italian would probably be a more able administrator. The Italian frontrunner is the well-liked Cardinal Dionisio Tettamanzi, 69, who was transferred to Milan this year after being cardinal-archbishop of Genoa.

If the electors look beyond Italy or Europe, which has nearly half of the electors, it is probable that the next pope will come from Latin America, where more than half the world's Catholics live. It has been given two new cardinals, in Guatemala and Brazil, in the new batch, which brings its proportion of electors to about 18 per cent.

Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras has wide support because of his winning personality. But there are two strikes against him: he is 60 and the electors, whose average age is 71 years, may be wary of the possibility of another 25 year-long pontificate.

Jorge Maria Bergiolo, Archbishop of Buenos Aires, has some convinced supporters. He is a Jesuit, and traditionally, cardinals are cautious about electing anyone from prestigious religious orders in case they are accused of favouring their own group.

The prospects of Belgian cardinal Godfried Daneels, 70, probably the likeliest "progressive" candidate, are unchanged but he might benefit from the new electoral rules that were introduced by John Paul. After 27 secret ballots, a simple majority is sufficient rather than two-thirds of the electors as previously required.

This rule, which seems rash, makes it possible for a compact group to impose their candidate without seeking a compromise.

The cardinals compose a Senate that advises a pope as well as electing his successor. All but five of the cardinals who could participate now have been appointed by John Paul but experience shows that this does not exclude choice of someone with a very different approach from his predecessor.

Unless John Paul is overcome by the efforts he makes next month - when he visits Pompei, presides over two beatifications, including that of Mother Teresa of Calcutta, and bestows the cardinalate hats on October 21 as part of the celebrations for his 25 years as Pope - he may begin a new phase of his pontificate.

Will the celebrations for John Paul's 25th anniversary be not a swansong but an occasion for him to catch his second breath?