Upcoming Free Agency and Possible Player Movements

Do we all know what that means by now? Brandon Ellis has done it recently. As has Ed Langdon.

As we head into the back end of the 2019 AFL season, there are several big names uncontracted for 2020, and the media loves when there is some uncertainty around where a player will land next season.

Tim Kelly is the biggest talking point. After requesting that Geelong explore the possibility of a trade with West Coast at the conclusion of the 2018 season, it was a foregone conclusion that the second year star would look to move home after this season, yet Geelong still holds out hope he’ll stay.

Guys, you don’t need to be a linguistics professor to read the writing on the wall here – he’s gone. It all comes down to what you’re able to get back for him as to whether or not you’ll be happy, and at the moment, there will have to be a fair bit of manoeuvring from either Fremantle or West Coast to secure enough assets to make a trade worthwhile for the Cats.

If it is an arms race to trade for Tim Kelly, who can amass the most firepower? And if teams are willing to sell the farm to get their hands on Kelly, what can we expect for names like Stephen Coniglio, Ed Langdon, and Shane Edwards.

The Mongrel has a look at those at your club who are free agents, restricted free agents, and out of contract at the end of the 2019 season. Some of them will re-sign with their current clubs, but as time ticks away on the 2019 season, the eagerness for clubs to get pen to paper, and secure their talent gets a little more frantic, and the speculation as to the playing future of many grows days by day.

Club free agent lists taken from the following article, and I have taken the liberty of not mentioning those I didn’t think worth a mention. Cheers

The writing seems to be on the wall for Sam Jacobs, with Reilly O’Brien taking the opportunity afforded him this year and refusing to relinquish it. ROB has eight years on Jacobs, and unless Jacobs wants to play backup, he’d be wise to consider offers from elsewhere.

Offers should come for Ellis-Yolmen as well, as his crash and bash style would suit many teams who lack the big body at stoppages – would be an amazing fit at Essendon, who really lack that big-bodied midfielder who is both strong over the ball and hard to bring down in a tackle.

Watching the Crows midfield function whilst trying to accommodate both Ellis-Yolmen and Hugh Greenwood has been interesting. Can you actually have both guys running through the midfield with the Crouch brothers and Sloane?

A few clubs (Melbourne in particular) already making noise about Alex Keath, but the Crows would get plenty back for him should he choose to look elsewhere.

Then there is the looming spectre of Brodie Grundy’s availability at the end of next season. Do they re-sign O’Brien and try to get Jacobs to commit for another season in the hopes Grundy comes in and takes over in 2021?

And if Grundy appears keen to move, do the Crows look to secure him sooner rather than later with what should be a top three pick at their disposal in the coming draft? Thanks Carlton…

BRISBANE

Currently Uncontracted – Daniel McStay, Lewis Taylor, Stef Martin

Restricted Free Agent – N/A

Unrestricted Free Agent – Mitch Robinson, Ryan Lester

I’d expect Robbo to sign on with the Lions again. He has been fantastic this season and the element of toughness he brings to that team cannot be downplayed.

McStay is one who would attract attention, and Brisbane will be seeking his signature sooner rather than later. Contested marking forwards aren’t plentiful, however forwards who are inaccurate are quite bountiful at the moment.

Lewis Taylor is one who could generate some interest as well. I’ve heard no rumours about him wanting to move South, but should he want to, he’d be a valuable trade asset.

Stef Martin has made a nice little home for himself in Brisbane, and though there were rumblings years ago of a possible trade, he would have to be able to see the oak tree in the accord at the moment in Brisbane, and realise they could be on the precipice of success. He’s 32, and a couple of years should be on the table for him.

I can’t see Kreuzer or Simpson leaving, and doubt you’d even get an offer in Simpson’s case, given his age. As good as he has been, I can’t see him playing the Luke Hodge role at Gold Coast. I do, however see Jarrad McVeigh doing that. We’ll get to him later.

There are more than a few at Carlton that will need putting pen to paper soon. All have shown enough warrant another contract, with perhaps only Matt Kennedy having his value decreased a little over the last couple of seasons.

Phillips is the heir apparent to Kreuzer and will probably become their number one ruck sometime over the next two years as the battle-beaten body of Kreuzer hits its 30s. Having not known success, what if Kre
uzer decided to test the waters this off-season and see if anyone was willing to bite? Personally, I reckon he bleeds navy blue, but for a chance at a flag… would he jump?

That’d be the absolute only way he’d be tempted, and I think even that is a very long shot.

Sier was just starting to make inroads into the senior team when injury struck. With Beams out, and Adams still not ready, this should’ve been Sier’s time to shine. He has been named this week after a concussion sat him out. He has been a victim of the dearth of talent at whatever the name is of Collingwood’s training space now – I know it was the Lexus Centre or Holden Centre, but I really hate all this naming rights bullshit. With a couple out, maybe he could stake a claim for a bigger role (and pay cheque) or it may be in his best interests to look elsewhere, whether he wants to or not.

I’m not sure the AFL dream consists of playing a heap of VFL footy for anyone, and with names like Beams, Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Adams and Treloar ahead of you, loyalty is great, but the reality is that Sier is better than a VFL talent.

Looking at the rest of the Pies, I wonder whether Ben Reid would prefer a regular game every week rather than competing against Mihocek and Cox for the tall forward slot. A young team in need of a forward presence and a body unafraid to crash a pack could be a good home for him in the twilight of his career.

I can’t see Jamie Elliott getting any offers of significance given his last couple of years of injury, and Tom Phillips should be handsomely compensated for the huge amount of gut-running he does for the Pies.

Who will they lose? Varcoe will be 32 next season and a one-year deal is all I’d be putting on the table. Daniel Wells – gone. Tyson Goldsack – gone.

Next season, the Pies will have the Brodie Grundy contract to deal with. I would not be surprised if they had not tabled a huge offer to him to extend his current deal the minute this season is over.

Any concern about whether Darcy Parish wants to stay at Windy H… Tullamarine? That really doesn’t have the same ring to it, does it? He would be someone I’d be eyeing off if I were a rival club in need of some midfield depth. It’d be buyer beware, however – Dodoro would probably ask for two first rounders.

I doubt that any offers will pour in for Baguley, and Myers is a chance to stay as long as he isn’t looking for a huge payday and another team isn’t silly enough to pay it.

In regard to Draper, the recent predicament that sees Essendon have to play Zac Clarke despite him absolutely stinking it up, may see them want to hold onto him, depending on what the Saints (such silly buggers down there) are willing to offer in return.

Very interesting situation out West, with several young stars looking for new deals. The big concern has to surround Ed Langdon, who has already “out contract talks on hold”. We touched on that at the start – it’s not a great sign.

However, I’d also be looking at players like Ethan Hughes, who has the makings of an excellent defender, and oft-injured but impressive Griffin Logue will probably be a discount re-sign. Lobb will re-sign as well, but rumours have flown around about Stephen Hill taking his talents to Gold Coast, and Brad Hill wanting to head back to Hawthorn (look, I don’t know why he’d do that). The Suns would be relatively cashed up, and if they were to make an offer, I doubt the Dockers would bother matching.

As a rookie elevation, Nyhuis is unrestricted, and at just 22 shows great potential. Recruited from the NT, he has no real ties to any state in the comp, so he is in a position to entertain offers from far and wide, and could find himself on a nice little wicket. If I were Freo, I’d be making sure I was in his ear early.

I’ll be asking the same of Eagles supporters soon, but Freo fans, what are you willing to give up for Tim Kelly? You don’t get out of this deal cheaply.

The asking price is Adam Cerra and a first round draft pick. Or Brad Hill and a first rounder. As you may play finals, I don’t want a pick in the teens. I want a top eight pick thrown in. Are you willing to trade up in the draft to get your hands on one? Are you willing to part with a future first rounder?

I reckon it’s pretty safe to say that Harry Taylor is going nowhere, but the Cats will be forced to trade Tim Kelly after this season. Can either the Dockers or Eagles offer anything near what he’s worth?

Cats fans, what would be appropriate compensation? A young player and a future first rounder? I’m guessing you wouldn’t want either team’s pick this season – with the Eagles expected to finish top four and the Dockers looking like they could very well play finals as well. A pick in the teens is nowhere near enough. Either of those teams will have to make some moves to secure a high draft pick to get the inside running.

I can’t believe that Jed Bews is a free agent. At 25 years old, if Eddie Betts goes around again, the Cats would be wanting to have Bews on their list just to ensure Betts is rendered useless yet again.

I cannot see Scott Selwood getting a consistent crack at top level footy at Kardinia Park. He’s 29, has a couple of good years left, but I can’t see any big offers heading his way.

Atkins gets another look based on his 2019 season. Not sure about this Ablett fella… haven’t heard much about him.

Jack Martin is the worry. Yet to put pen to paper, he is on the radar of other clubs, particularly Essendon, who made a bit of noise about their interest last off-season. Martin started the season well, but has had 20+ disposals in just one of the last seven outings. That’s the kind of form of a guy who has one foot out the door, and that’s really disappointing.

Anthony Miles has been a great pickup and should be rewarded with a nice deal very soon, and it’s been a shame that man-child, Brayden Crossley has been unable to get on the park this season. Still, it’ll make his next deal an absolute bargain.

If I’m the Suns, I start looking at players like Mav Weller, who I reckon would be a nice fit with his brother. Jarrad McVeigh and Jarryd Roughead have been floated as prospective on-field leaders, who would be short term fixes, but may add a lot culturally.

I read a report on Twitter that Jack Lukosius wants out already. If this is true, and you have to consider the source (Ricky Nixon), then screw this guy. I am so sick of the “I want to go home” stuff… amateurish in a professional sporting environment. Maybe raise the draft age so players aren’t; acting like children after being drafted.

While all the noise is around Coniglio, and rightfully so, I am a big fan of Sam Reid, and seeing his name pop up as
a free agent (as he was a rookie), I wonder how many teams will be looking at what he could provide. With the reported salary cap issues the Giants faced last season, and with Josh Kelly already re-signed, could they afford Reid if Coniglio’s signature is secured?

And if they sign those two, will they have enough coin to combat the offers that’ll come for Tomlinson? He’s been on St Kilda’s radar for a while now, and I’d be surprised if he is on the list once St Kilda commits to vastly overpay for him? With the improvement of Jeremy Finlayson, Tomlinson has been a little lost in the shuffle. Maybe a move for him is the right thing, and it won’t hurt the Giants much in the long run.

So, if Jarryd Roughead is willing to uproot his family and head to Queensland, could there be a role for him with the Suns? He would go with Hawthorn’s blessing, as would Ryan Schoenmakers if the Suns wanted someone to play in the NEAFL. Ouch…

Paul Puopolo is an interesting one. In terms of forward pressure, there are not many better in the league. At 31, his time in the game is short, but his work ethic is huge, and he’d be a great mentor, or a missing piece to the puzzle for a team like GWS, who will still be contending. He’s third in the league in tackles inside 50 ahead of names like Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Tom Atkins, and I shudder to think where the Hawks would be without him.

One year deal for Burgoyne if he wants to go again. Ricky Henderson should be rewarded for his outstanding season with a couple of years on offer as well.

Can’t say the same for Grant Birchall, who sadly, should probably be bid farewell.

Ceglar is an interesting one. Dropped this week after some wayward kicking (but excellent marking!), he’d provide some great value for any team. The Hawks would be wise to secure his signature quickly.

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Jordan Lewis will be announcing his retirement after this season, and the Dees will undoubtedly re-sign their co-captain, Nathan Jones to an extension at some point this season. I don’t think it’ll be anything over two years, and if he were not captain, he’d probably get a year, tops.

Other than that, the Dees are on a pretty good wicket, assuming the side can recapture some of the 2018 form – the cattle is still there. Hopefully they’re not being led to the slaughter.

What the Dees offer Garlett will be interesting. He’s got so many of his scored out the back this season that his value to the team must be in question, particularly when you’ve got a kid like Lockhart coming through.

ANB gets another couple of years and both KK and Tim Smith are worth another go-round. Sam Frost is probably the one who will be in for a bit of a pay raise. Good key defenders are hard to find, and Frost’s development has been substantial. As insurance for Steven May (probably required) and Jake Lever (definitely required), Frost’s presence in the Dees’ back half is vital.

Get Nick Larkey signed immediately. He looks like he could be something in the near future – a great pair of hands and with 1.33 goals per game, he has the tools to have a breakout season as early as next year. At 21 years old, with 11 games to his name, I’d be making him an attractive offer to shore up his immediate future at Arden Street..

I think the offer from the Western Bulldogs will be too good to refuse for Goldstein. He has been a warrior for the Roos and will be a great boon to their young ruck, Tim English if he makes the move.

Tyson doesn’t get another deal. With three games to his name this season, even as insurance, he is just taking up a place on the roster. I’d like to see him get a run at it elsewhere but the return for him would be so negligible that he could wander into the pre-season draft and North wouldn’t miss much.

Scott Thompson bleeds blue and white, and at 33 will not attract interest from anywhere else.

There are three club legends in that unrestricted category. Robbie Gray will be banking some serious dollars from the Power. He’s 31, and for the first season since 2012, injury has bit him. Poor timing if he’s looking for a huge money deal, but his status as unrestricted has not been discussed nearly enough to this point. Maybe that has to do with the fact he will be staying at Port, irrespective of what offers come his way.

Travis Boak is in career-best form, and as a former captain, you’d expect him to re-sign with the team as well. Westhoff… well, he had a career-year in 2018, but has dropped away significantly this season. Is the writing on the wall for him? Or is it the wakeup call he needed?

And then there’s Ryder. Of the big three who played SANFL last week, only Ryder was left there this week. That has to sting, and for all Ken Hinkley talks about Ryder’s love for the club, and the club’s love for him, if it demonstrated by long stints in the seconds, that love will wear thin.

Trent McKenzie won’t be wearing a Port guernsey next season, and Jack Trengove’s AFL story that started so promisingly will end following this season.

It’s an interesting crew out of contract at Punt Road. I’m a big fan of Dan Butler, but the bloke has tried his hardest to change this in 2019. The addition of Sydney Stack and the emergence of Shai Bolton and Liam Baker make him somewhat less required, so I expect him to be a little dissatisfied with a new contract offer. Maybe he could be used as trade bait for a team who could use someone who is great at forward half pressure, but is having trouble kicking the footy?

You’d think Edwards and Houli are automatic re-signs with the Tigers, but the case of Chol is interesting. If Riewoldt is fit, does he get a look in at all? He’s shown a bit this year and the Tigers would be selling him on a succession plan in the forward line, but if a big offer comes from somewhere else, how could he resist the chance to play 22 games?

Brandon Ellis could be one that tests the Tigers. One of the few restricted free agents in the league, he’d be a very handy pick up for a few teams. The Tigers will have the chance to match the offer if he entertains interest from others, but will they?

I can’t see Mav Weller hanging around for another season, playing VFL. I reckon. I think he’ll be looking towards Gold Coast this of-season. He has a good chance of being best-22 there. Not so much with the Tigers.

Townsend’s future is not at Punt Road. Not if he actually wants to play. His game would be a nice fit for hawthorn, and I thought that last season as well, yet there he was in yellow and black this year again.

Okay, we need to talk about the Saints, who are so baffling. They have this kid named Rowan Marshall, who is the breakout ruckman of 2019, yet
I hear they’re looking at both Sam Draper, who given he hasn’t played a game, can’t tie Marshall’s shoes at the moment, and they have this other fella who’s pretty handy named Lewis Pierce. Saints… what the fuck do you need to throw buckets of cash at Draper for?

I’m guessing their pursuit of both Draper, and reportedly Todd Goldstein, means that Billy Longer will be bid farewell?

Nathan Brown is such an underrated key defender, and I’d be ensuring he is offered a new deal. Did you know he was leading the league in spoils until the Saints dropped him for their game against GWS and Jeremy Cameron? How’d that one work out? Cameron kicked six. You know who would’ve been handy?

Geary, as captain, goes nowhere, but I think David Armitage’s time at Moorabbin may be finally done.

Remember the rumours of McVeigh to Gold Coast in a Luke Hodge-type role last off-season. As much as I like McVeigh, I reckon that was something, if the Swans had their time again, they may have supported a little more strongly. He’s played five games this season and the Swans aren’t getting bang for their buck. I expect him to explore opportunities after this season, and do it on great terms with the Swans. If he can get his body right for a couple of years, his presence in the Suns’ defence would be invaluable.

There’ll be zero interest for Jack as he drags his body through what should be his last at this level, but what happens with Nick Smith will be something to keep an eye on. He has not managed a game this season, but when fit is a definite walk up start. He’s just turned 30 and teams MAY dip their toe in the water to see what sort of price he is going at. I reckon the Swans will be eager to hold onto him if he is healthy, but a defender of Smith’s ability would be a nice addition to a contender.

Life is good for the Eagles as all their stars are locked up and they start looking for a way to add Tim Kelly to their list.

I think Schofield stays as injury insurance for the Eagles, and at 30 years old, I couldn’t see many teams expressing interest. Masten can fly the coop, and given how maligned he is by some of his own supporters, I could see him taking his premiership medal (or possibly two) and looking for a payday elsewhere. If he has a strong end to the season, I think Eagles fans would wish him all the best and thank him for his service. Some might even drive him to the airport.

So, big question, as I asked Freo fans – who on the list is worth giving up to get your hands on Kelly? There is no way you get out of this cheaply, either.

Jarrod Brander is the price. Do you pay it, and also somehow grab a high draft pick to throw at me to sweeten the deal? If I am Geelong, that’s where I start the bidding, and if you’re not willing to pay it, I’ll make a couple of calls to Freo and see what they can offer. Who blinks?

Jetta gets a couple of years, and Hickey has just headed over so you sign him for a couple as well as Nic Nat insurance. Hickey is a winner at clearances anyway, so even with a completely healthy Nic Nat, the time Hickey spends in the middle is good value.

The Dogs are actually really well-placed, and should be able to re-sign whomever they want to from this list. The real question the Dogs must answer is who they target to assist Tim English in the ruck as he develops? There’s little question that they need a big body to take the heat as English grows into his own. The contenders are as follows.

Todd Goldstein – still a top five ruck in the league and an absolute workhorse. As an unrestricted free agent, he’ll cost the Dogs nothing if they’re willing to shell out.

Paddy Ryder – On the outer at Port, Ryder was unable to crack the team for the Showdown, the writing is on the wall for him. The Dogs would have to cut a deal with Port if Ryder wanted to head to the Whitten Oval.

Sam Jacobs – Forced out due to the excellent form of Reilly O’Brien, Jacobs has been a workhorse for the Crows, and as a restricted free agent, the Dogs could probably make an offer the Crows would not match, costing them nothing in terms of a deal.

Matthew Kreuzer – Unrestricted at Carlton, but strikes me as fiercely loyal. I can’t see him moving, and I don’t trust his body to be there week-in and week-out to support English.

So, welcome to the Whitten Oval, Todd Goldstein?

So there we go. The big fish in this mix are obviously Tim Kelly and Stephen Coniglio but the fate of players like Ed Langdon, Sam Reid (GWS), Ben Reid, Jack Martin and possibly even Brodie Grundy are all intriguing storylines unto themselves.

So, who does your team want to hang onto? And who does it want to see wander off to greener pastures? If you have an opinion in it, we’d love to hear it.

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2 Responses

Coniglio seems like a top notch young guy and is playing the whole thing close to his chest. Congratulations. The questions are 1)can GWS afford the $ to keep him?, and 2)does he want to have a career playing in the wastelands of western Sydney in front of a mum and the kids audience each week?

Kelly is a real tease of a situation. I think that there is every chance he will stay on a rolling one year deal, player option to extend out to five (one at a time). From WA, Fremantle are in the box seat at the moment. Would Geelong consider B Hill + Ed Langdon for Kelly? That leaves Freo pick 11ish to use on Liam Henry who looks top 10 but is a Freo NGA. Or offer Hill and pick 11 and use low pick points for Henry? Or do they do something creative? Offer WC pick 11 (to use on Robertson) for later picks of slightly lower value on condition they don’t bid on Henry if still on the table?

In an ideal world of purple, Freo get Kelly and Henry. In an ideal world of blue and gold, WCE get Kelly and Robertson. In an ideal world of blue and white, Geelong keep Kelly, get Coniglio for peanuts and run off like laughing thieves into the blackness of Corio Bay.

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