A Compromised Peace? The Effect of Power-Sharing Arrangements on Post-War Violence

M Ottmann

Abstract

How does power-sharing between government and rebels affect the use of violence by political actors outside of peace agreements? To address this puzzle, I propose a political economy model of power-sharing and post-war violence. Power-sharing regulates elites’ access to state resources and thus determines whether government and rebels can successfully suppress post-war rebellions. Personalized power-sharing gives elites privileged access to state resources, facilitates effective counter-insurgency strategies, and thus decreases post-war violence. In contrast, structural power-sharing limits elites’ access to resources and their ability to prevent armed challenges resulting in higher levels of post-war violence. I test these propositions with a quantitative analysis of peace agreements in Africa and Asia signed between 1990 and 2006. The statistical findings lend support to my theoretical reasoning.