tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-76186602014-10-14T16:46:51.573+00:00Antoine Clarke's Election Watch"The drama of an election comes from the combination of a plot where the end is not known: we don't know who will win (in some cases, who has won), whether the result will be accepted by the loser, and how well or badly the defeated will behave."Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.comBlogger273125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-31999735438903876582012-11-05T22:40:00.001+00:002012-11-05T22:40:59.745+00:00Who's going to win?THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION on Tuesday November 6th will be won with a convincing electoral college majority. At least 70 votes.
That's my conclusion of poring over the polls, listening to what people are enthusiastic/despondent about, looking at where the money and candidates are being used.
The problem is, I'm not sure WHO is going to win by at least 70 electoral college votes.
The reasonAntoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-43714189355900368502012-03-28T18:54:00.004+00:002012-03-28T20:17:57.445+00:00If Obamacare loses, Obama wins?It's premature to assume that the tough questioning by US Supreme Court justices will translate into a ruling that the Obamacare "individual mandate" is unconstitutional.For what it's worth, the prediction markets at Intrade suggest a 60% chance of a negative outcome for the Obama administration (price at time of drafting this post).What is perhaps more interesting, and will fuel conspiracy Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-9212953335859048622010-11-08T13:29:00.003+00:002010-11-08T14:11:17.430+00:00Burma election round upAfter reading reports of voter intimidation in Burma (also called the Union of Myanmar), which has been under Socialist military rule since 1962, I thought a round up of how the election is supposed to work would be in order.Wikipedia has a page dedicated to the elections which provides background and a lot of comment about how unfair they are, but no information about the procedures.Here's a Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-28223370489852814382010-11-03T23:41:00.005+00:002010-11-03T23:51:39.827+00:00In the event of a tie in the 2012 Presidential Election......the House of Representatives votes, state by state, for the President. This means that if Great Plains were a state with 1 congressperson (Democrat), that person would presumably back the Democrat. If Metropolis were a state with 31 representatives (16 Republicans and 15 Democrats) then assuming party lines hold, that's one vote for the Republicans.Here's a chart showing how this looked beforeAntoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-39557097600086138222010-11-03T18:29:00.004+00:002010-11-03T18:37:32.085+00:002010 Governors' Election Results So FarAt the time of writing, CBS News reckons there are 28 Republican Governors, 15 Democrats, 1 Independent and six results to come. However, Brian Dubie the Republican candidate in Vermont, has reportedly conceded, so I make it:Republicans 28Republicans lead in 3 (Connecticut, Maine, Oregon)Democrats 16Democrats lead in 2 (Illinois, Minnesota)Independent 1N.B. Although the five remaining contests Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-2438454509551664852010-10-19T13:28:00.002+00:002010-10-19T13:39:54.935+00:00"Already voted" polling in New MexicoRealClearPolitics has a report on polling of people who have already voted in New Mexico, a sort of postal vote exit poll. Current estimate is 60% Republican 36% Democrat. The same sort of polling in the state in 2008, found that although only 10% of voters had cast their ballot early, yet the exit poll disproportionately favoured the eventual winner. RCP speculates that this might be repeated Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-3005658135448140942010-10-18T13:43:00.002+00:002010-10-18T14:24:36.649+00:00U.S. House importance for 2012In 2012, the U.S. presidential election will be contested with a new electoral college (538 votes), based on the redistribution of congressional seats (435 of them) according to the 2010 U.S. Census. However, in the event of a tie (269-269) the back-up system for electing the President kicks in.The current House of Representatives at the time of the 2012 election, that's the people who are Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-65477757165374288422010-09-27T22:33:00.007+00:002010-09-28T00:05:07.010+00:00Fox News and GodA POLITICO/George Washington Unversity Battleground opinion poll highlights U.S. President Barack Obama's midterm election problems and offers some insights into just how different the U.S. electorate is to the rest of the Western world. Commentators have latched onto the figure that only 38% would welcome the President's re-election.If the Republicans had a figure with the ability to communicateAntoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-4322597431630510252010-01-28T14:10:00.002+00:002010-01-28T14:13:27.694+00:00Antoine Clarke podcast on BrianMicklethwait.comMy Tuesday podcast about Massachusetts and what the social media means for elections, with some thoughts about libertarian parties in the UK and the USA can be found here.Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-8335477005431233212010-01-26T01:34:00.003+00:002010-01-26T02:21:11.530+00:00Senate election in Massachusetts resultsThe Commonwealth of Massachusetts has not yet officially declared the results of the January 19th special election for Senator.It turns out the best web campaign won.Here are the results as reported in the Boston Globe, which has a neat map and town-by-town table here.Scott Brown (Republican) 1,168,107 votes (52%)Martha Coakley (Democrat) 1,058,682 votes (48%)Joe Kennedy (LibertarianAntoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1144269539375647642010-01-26T01:30:00.000+00:002010-01-26T02:24:56.678+00:00IndicatorsI like comparing election forecasts from politicians, people who are considering voting but don't watch the political programmes on TV, opinion pollsters, market traders and bookies. The people I never ask, except for entertainment are policy analysts, because they seem to be the only people more clueless than politicians at recognising when they're about to take a good kicking in an election.OneAntoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-40062095352691538252010-01-20T02:33:00.001+00:002010-01-20T02:35:24.493+00:00++Republican win in Massachusetts++Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-15069226174681882912010-01-20T01:26:00.004+00:002010-01-20T02:20:10.587+00:00Best places to follow the Massachusetts count? UPDATEDDue to five hour time difference, I'm not liveblogging the Massachusetts special election count for the next few hours.So here are some good places for readers who live in more favourable timezones or who are prepared for an all-nighter:Fivethirtyeight Especially because it has a live Twitter feed.If you're a sadist and the Democrats are losing, much wailing and gnashing of the teeth here. ;-)N.BAntoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-92226258152822380282010-01-20T00:14:00.003+00:002010-01-20T00:39:25.714+00:00How to do itDavid Axelrod, the Senior Advisor to US President Barack Obama, and who knows a thing or two about elections, told a gathering of reporters before voting ended in Massachusetts yesterday, that "he thought Brown ran a very good campaign, saying that 'as a practitioner, my hat's off to him'." (AP via Breitbart)Leaving aside the wisdom of making such a statement when your own party's candidate is Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-7218362089238631032010-01-19T13:03:00.005+00:002010-01-19T16:27:21.102+00:00More on Twitter"I've seen it translate into dollars. I've seen it translate into traffic. I've seen it translate into media news stories," he said. "How that translates into votes, I don't think people have figured that out yet."Justin Hart, director of new media for the Senate campaign of Chuck DeVore (Republican) in California.Over at RealClearPolitics (which doesn't have a share button for its Politics Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-54385864208663265522010-01-18T23:23:00.009+00:002010-01-19T01:31:56.324+00:00Massachusetts Special ElectionSometimes, one should back a hunch. Always, one should write it down.A week ago, I took my first look at the election campaigns of the two main party candidates for the Special Election in Massachusetts, USA, to replace the late Senator Edward Kennedy.My first impression, especially given how the Democrats had steamrollered the Republicans at the 2008 presidential and other federal elections thatAntoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-79790550109042948792009-11-20T00:40:00.004+00:002009-11-20T01:06:04.719+00:00Less democratic than BonaparteThe new office of European President has been filled by a cabal of national politicians with the result that Herman van Rompuy, Belgium's Prime Minister, has been "elected."It's worth noting just how undemocratic this choice is.When Napoleon Bonaparte wanted to declare himself the First Consul of France (and dictator of most of what is now the European Union), he held a plebiscite. If he had lostAntoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-6469279491931917732009-11-04T12:43:00.004+00:002009-11-04T13:56:24.316+00:00Post mortem on U.S. election nightThe gubernatorial elections [here {very good map of New Jersey voting} and here] in the U.S. states of New Jersey and Virginia have produced two gains for the Republican Party from the Democrats, supporting opinion polls that suggested the opposition is able to mobilise a majority of voters on the issues of the economy, excessive public spending and health care reform.One problem for the Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-405519184413126922009-11-04T01:01:00.006+00:002009-11-04T03:57:30.137+00:00Late forecast for US election night (Updated)UPDATE: NY 23:Candidate Party Votes (%) Bill Owens Democrat 47,826 49.1% Doug Hoffman Conservative 44,349 45.5 Dede Scozzafava Republican 5,294 5.4 67% reportingAs of time of writing (03:54 GMT), the gap has been narrowing. Scozzafava's votes are thought to mostly be absentee ballots which would have been posted before she withdrew.UPDATE: Local media Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-17229411904639472242009-11-04T00:55:00.002+00:002009-11-04T01:01:11.876+00:00Rasmussen on US parties' best tactics for outreachScott Rasmussen, one of the more reliable pollsters in the U.S.A., has written a thoughtful round up of the issues surrounding the New York State's 23rd congressional district election, which took place on November 3, and which has not yet been called.He writes:while Republican voters overwhelmingly consider themselves conservative, only 56% of conservative voters consider themselves to be Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-79972019076061432722009-06-18T00:38:00.004+00:002009-06-18T01:03:38.493+00:00A thought about European elections: why they're boringThe drama of an election comes from the combination of a plot where the end is not known: we don't know who will win (in some cases, who has won), whether the result will be accepted by the loser, and how well or badly the defeated will behave.But in an election with the D'Hondt method of proportional representation (that rolls of the tongue!), it seems like almost everyone wins something, and Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-46210697330570219342009-06-16T10:46:00.002+00:002009-06-16T10:58:21.703+00:00Twitter ALLOWS Iranian protestsIf this isn't power, what is?Twitter has re-scheduled a maintenance downtime to about 1.30am local time in Tehran, to allow the protesters to organise and agitate against the recent election result (which "concerns" U.S. President Barack Obama - whatever that means).MG Siegler at TechCrunch has the story:Twitter had been planning to have a 90 minute downtime tonight for maintenance. Given what’s Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-12740644710123494932009-06-16T10:33:00.004+00:002009-06-16T10:46:41.945+00:00"I think hiatus is the word"If it's good enough for Salam Pax...I've been too long away from this blog. For reasons that are not really nice (the company I worked for has gone into liquidation) I now have time in the day with a computer that actually works. Hiatus over, at least for now.I have completed my statistical compilation of the UK's European Parliamentary election data and will be issuing my analysis over coming Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-8130323919190593322008-09-11T02:31:00.006+00:002008-09-11T02:50:43.425+00:00When it looks like a pig...Here's what the Democratic Party's website shows on the "Lipstick on a Pig" issue.Now I wonder who they could possibly be trying to portray?What tasteful mock-ups of Barack Obama do you suppose would be considered reasonable?[hat tip Michelle Malkin]Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-26158565055123404312008-09-11T01:27:00.005+00:002008-09-11T01:48:56.910+00:00Palin Derangement Syndrome, or "Lipstick on a pig" Take 2If Senator Obama did not intend the insult, why did he repeat it on the Letterman show? Bush Derangement Syndrome has been replaced by Palin Derangement Syndrome. The Democratic Party candidate for the presidency of the U.S.A. has got it bad.His excuse for the now notorious "Lipstick on a Pig" jibe at his vice-presidential opponent Governor Sarah Palin is:"Keep in mind, technically, had I meant Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0