Tropical Storm OTTO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED DEC 01 2004
THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR PERHAPS A SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERELIES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RESPOND TO THIS WITH A SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...EXCEPT THE UKMET
WHICH SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK
FORECAST BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.
THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION...AND WHAT THERE IS IS CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER THERE IS A 06Z SHIP REPORT OF 50 KT
AND 995.1 MB ABOUT 100 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE SHIP WIND
APPEARS TOO HIGH AND THE PRESSURE TOO LOW...SO THE THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS INCREASED TO A COMPROMISE 45 KT. THE SAME TROUGH REFERRED
TO ABOVE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE WESTERLIES OVER THE STORM AND
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT
IN 48 HOURS AND OVER 40 KT BY 96 HOURS. FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL
AND THE PREVIOUS ADVIORY...THE FORECAST IS FOR WEAKENING AFTER 24
HOURS.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 31.9N 50.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 31.8N 50.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 31.0N 50.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 30.0N 49.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 29.1N 48.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 27.8N 46.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 05/0600Z 27.0N 45.0W 20 KT...REMNAT LOW
120HR VT 06/0600Z 26.5N 43.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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