Fantasy Fallout: Is Cameron Maybin Worth Buying In LA?

Friday, November 4, 2016 5:10

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by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Last night it was announced that the Detroit Tigers had traded OF Cameron Maybin to the Los Angeles Angels for RHP Victor Alcantara (who we wrote up on our Prospect Site last night, which you can read by clicking here). While you can argue that the deal was a bit of a salary purge for the Tigers, it’s not like Maybin was guaranteed a contract as the team held an option for him. Obviously the Angels feel that he will be worth the $9 million that they will pick up.

From a fantasy perspective it’ll be interesting to see what kind of value Maybin can produce in Los Angeles. Outside of the injuries limiting his time on the field, it’s easy to look at his 2016 numbers and find value:

Right off the bat you look at the BABIP and know that the numbers are a bit of an aberration. Sure he hit the ball relatively hard, with a 21.7% line drive rate, and he also has speed, but neither lend themselves to this high of a mark. Keep in mind that he owns a career mark of .322, so a regression is certainly in order.

He has always shown a good command of the strike zone, with a career 26.8% O-Swing% (25.6% in ’16), though it’s never led to a significant number of walks (9.2% in ’16, 7.9% for his career). At his age it’s impossible to expect a dramatic change to come.

Then you have the home/road split, which brings about some concern:

Home – .374 with 3 HR

Road – .240 with 1 HR

Considering that the road number came courtesy of a .303 BABIP (.443 at home), is it fair to assume it as more “real”?

Having never hit more than 10 HR in a season and producing a 56.5% groundball rate, we all know that power is never going to be a big part of his game. It’s not like he’s ever been a doubles (24 in ’11 is his career high) or triples (8 in ’11 is his career high) machine, so in the Majors he’s never shown much promise.

As we mentioned there is some speed, having swiped as many as 40 bases in a season, but with injuries always being a concern is he really going to get an unlimited green light? Could he be a 25 SB threat, if he stays healthy? Absolutely, though that alone is a very big if.

Hitting ahead of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols is a good spot to be in, but it’s not like he was in a bad lineup before the trade. The fact is that the numbers are a bit deceiving, as the average is going to fall, he doesn’t bring much power and who knows what type of SB opportunities he’ll get. He’s simply not a player to be targeting, regardless of the locale.