Someone posted a question about this in the forums, and I figured it would be useful to address it here, too:

The first thing we do when we evaluate a player is figure out what his numbers will look like. We create a projection for him. Everyone does this to an extent - you look at Adam Dunn and think - he'll probably hit 40, but his average could be around .250. (After I wrote that, I checked out Erickson's projection for him, and it turns out those are his projections exactly!).

But once we have everyone's projected (estimated) numbers, we still have the problem of translating those numbers into a ranking (or dollar value). You can just eyeball it and say you'd rather have Adam Dunn than Andruw Jones, but it gets tricky when we compare different kinds of players. Let's take Ryan Howard's stats from last year - 47 HR, 136 RBI, 94 R, 1 SB, .268 in 529 AB, and Ichiro's: 6 HR, 68 RBI, 111 R, 37 SB, .351 in 678 AB.

Which numbers are worth more? What basis do we even have for answering that? I guess you could eyeball it and decide which one was more of an outlier, but that's imprecise, and maybe you'd pick the wrong one.

To do this more precisely you need to take into account two factors: (1) Value Above Replacement and (2) Standard Deviation

The first one is easy enough to understand. If a player in a 12-team mixed league hits 12 homers, how much is that really helping you? Let's say there are 14 offensive players per team. That's 168 total offensive players. So players 169-190 or so are what we call "replacement value".

Those are the guys on your bench or on the waiver wire. Let's say the average HR total for those players is 10. So your 12 HR guy is really only getting you 2 HRs in that category. If you had a 3 HR guy, he'd be giving you -7 HRs. Remember every roster spot on your team has an opportunity cost. (Even before taking position scarcity into account).

OK, so we can do this value above replacement calculation for each category, pitching and hitting. But we still have a problem. Because let's say Ryan Howard is 37 HRs about replacement, but 12 points below replacement in batting average. Let's say he's plus 60 in RBI, plus 35 in runs, -6 in steals. And let's say Ichiro is plus-76 points in batting average (adjusted for his 678 at-bats which is about 120 percent of the average starter's). And Ichiro is plus 45 runs, minus 2 HR and minus 10 RBI. Which player is better, Howard or Ichiro?

There's no way to know without being able to compare ACROSS categories. How do we know if 47 HRs is worth more than a .351 average in 678 at-bats? The answer: Standard deviation.

Let's take last year's stats as an example: If we take into account the stats of every player in your league, we can come up with the standard deviation (the average amount by which a player differs from the mean) in each category). In other words, if there are 168 hitters drafted (14 hitters, 12 teams), then among those hitters, there's a mean (or average for each category). It might be 20 HR, 80 RBI, 85 R, .280, or something like that. Now if the average amount of home runs is 20, the standard deviation in home runs is the average amount a player differs from 20 home runs. In Howard's case, that number was 27. He hit 27 more home runs than the average. In Ichiro's case, it was 14. he hit 14 homers less than the average. But other players hit 21, just one off the average. Some hit 16, four off the average. If you average out all those differences (27, 14, 1, 4, etc.) for all 168 players, then you find the standard deviation for home runs. Let's say is was 8.

Now remember a player's stats don't start to count positively until they've done better than what's freely available on the waiver wire, i.e., until they are better than replacement value. And in a 12-team mixed league, we argued that the average replacement player was good for roughly 10 home runs. So Howard, who hit 47, was 37 home runs better than replacement. And how good is 37 better than replacement?

We can figure that out by asking the question: "How many standard deviations above replacement is it?" The answer: 37/8 or a little more than 4.5. So Howard's home runs are worth 4.5 on our scale. Ichiro batted .351 in 678 at-bats. How much better was that than replacement? First, we'd look at what the replacement batting average was - .275. So .351 -.275 = 76 points. Then we'd figure out what the average of 168 drafted players was. We came up with .280. We'd need to find the standard deviation - how much is the average difference from .280? Ichiro differs by 71, Howard differs by 12, other players differ by a few, let's say the average is 15 points. (I'm making these numbers up, but just roll with me here). It's 15 points, and Ichiro is 76 above replacement, so he gets 76/15 - roughly five points for average. But, he also has more at-bats than the average drafted player who has 500 or so. So that five points needs to be multiplied by 678/500. So Ichiro gets closer to seven points for batting average.

These numbers aren't precise (I'm making up the SD as we go for the purposes of this question) - though I do think Ichiro's contribution to batting average was probably bigger than Howard's to HRs in last year's context, but you get the idea. You need to compare players category by category in the context of the league to know which is more valuable. It's not simple, but understanding how it works can help you from underestimating average or overestimating other categories - they're all worth the same amount, and the question is really - how much of an outlier is each contribution relative to the rest of the league.

Once you get the number of standard deviations above replacement for each player for each category you can add them up. In Ichiro's case, it might be (and I'm making this up, too): +7 for average, -1 for HRs, -.5 for RBI +3 for runs, +4 for SB. You get 12.5. You can generate a total for every hitter.

To convert that into dollar values, you figure out the total amount of money spent on hitting in your $260 league - let's say $160 * 12 = 1920. That means the total dollar values of the top 168 players need to equal 1920. You add up all the totals (Ichiro's was 12.5) and get a number. Let's say it's 600. You divide 1920 by 600 which is 3.2. So you multiply each player's raw total by 3.2 to get his dollar. 12.5 * 3.2 = $40 in a 12-team mixed league. (Of course, I'm making these numbers up).

Now there are a lot of other components I'm leaving out like position scarcity and projection reliability (Derek Jeter's projections are far more reliable than Justin Upton's, for example), but this at least gives us the ability to compare and evaluate different kinds of players on one cheat sheet.

Offense: The NL Central was the Brewersí to lose last season, and although they did just that, they enter 2008 with a much improved team. Remember, last year they didnít get full seasons from any of Ben Sheets, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks and Yovani Gallardo. The Mike Cameron addition also upgraded the outfield. Fielder, Braun, and Hart form one the leagueís best heart of the orders, and Weeks is also capable of posting a .900 OPS season. The team defense should be exponentially better this year as well.

Pitching: Sheets could still win the Cy Young one day, and his strikeout rate did return after a lackluster April last season, but the odds are stacked against him reaching 180 innings at this point. He is pitching for a contract, but so far his body has really failed him. Heís the single most important aspect of the Brewersí 2008 season. Yovani Gallardoís knee injury may be a blessing in disguise, as itíd be in Milwaukeeís best interest if he didnít eclipse 180-190 innings this season anyway. As long as he doesnít alter his mechanics to compensate, he should be an excellent starter for years to come. Jeff Suppan is one of the most overpaid players in the game, and David Bushís peripherals just donít lead to good ERAs, but Manny Parra gives the Brewers a top-3 that will be formidable come October.

Outlandish fantasy prediction: Rickie Weeks goes 30/30.

2. Chicago Cubs

Offense: The Cubs have a solid team, but itís not exactly a powerhouse, and they are pretty thin up the middle. Aramis Ramirez is Chicagoís best hitter, but he has durability concerns, and Alfonso Sorianoís leg issues are becoming an issue. Kosuke Fukudome has a great name and should post a solid OBP, but Geovany Soto is hardly a lock to even resemble the hitter he was last season. He could be a big disappointment.

Pitching: A terrific spring has eased concerns regarding Carlos Zambranoís sinking K rate and mileage on his arm, but he still needs to learn command in order to reach his potential. Rich Hill and Ted Lilly are solid No. 2 and No. 3 guys, but after that, itís pray for rain. Maybe Jon Lieber emerges as a decent back of the rotation option, but the Cubs plan on entering the season relying on both Jason Marquis and Ryan Dempster to fill that role, something that should cost them plenty of games. The bullpen, however, should be a strength.

Offense: Now hereís a sleeper team, Dusty Baker notwithstanding. Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and Homer Bailey arenít quite ready, but the future most certainly looks bright in Cincinnati. Brandon Phillips and Ken Griffey Jr. will be hard pressed to repeat what they did last season, but Edwin Encarnacion should finally break out, and Adam Dunn will be clogging up the bases all season long. Next year, they might be the favorites to win the division.

Pitching: Aaron Harangís workload is concerning, but Bronson Arroyo was unlucky last year, so expect a bounce back campaign in 2008. Moreover, Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez (and later Bailey) give the rotation serious upside, and both are capable of posting sub-4 ERAs as soon as this year, even with the home park against them. When pitching outside of Milwaukee, Francisco Cordero posted a 6.55 ERA and 1.55 WHIP last season, so it seemed a little short-sighted to hand $46 million to someone who will factor in to about four percent of the Redsí innings this year.

Outlandish fantasy prediction: Corey Patterson steals 50 bases.

4. Houston Astros

Offense: Houston has some nice pieces, and the lineup should be improved with the Miguel Tejada addition and a full season from Hunter Pence, but there are also some pretty big holes in the lineup. Kaz Matsui had a line of .249/.304/.333 outside of Coors Field last year, Ty Wigginton is one of the gameís weaker hitting third baseman, and although Michael Bourn is an extremely valuable fantasy commodity, heís not much of an asset to the Astros. Tejada and Lance Berkman are also entering the decline phases of their careers.

Pitching: Speaking of decline, Roy Oswalt falls directly into that category as well. Even if he halts that trend, Houston sports quite possibly baseballís worst 2-5 starters. Last yearís 4.68 team ERA is only going to get worse. Jose Valverde is unhittable when on, but the rest of the bullpen is pretty shaky. This franchise needs to start from scratch.

Outlandish fantasy prediction: Roy Oswalt isnít a top-30 starter.

5. St. Louis Cardinals

Offense: How the mighty have fallen. In the Cardsí Opening Day lineup, five hitters will have a career OPS of .730 or (much) lower. Troy Glaus, Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel do provide some punch to go along with Albert Pujols, but theyíll also provide a ton of strikeouts. If this team is in fifth place come July, it would make an awful lot of sense for Pujols to just get it over with and go under the knife.

Pitching: Adam Wainwright, who had a 2.71 ERA and 1.25 WHIP after the All-Star break last season, is developing into a fine pitcher to lead the staff. At least St. Louis didnít get ripped off by Atlanta in that deal. With Chris Carpenter, Joel Pineiro, Mark Mulder and Matt Clement residing on the DL, the rest of the rotation is a mess. Itís unclear if Anthony Reyes is dating Dave Duncanís daughter, but for some reason, the two have a tension-filled relationship, leading to the teamís second most talented starter relegated to long-relief, despite his impressive spring.

Offense: Thereís not much to like here. Jason Bay should bounce back, and Nate McLouth should upgrade center field, but thereís little punch to this lineup. Xavier Nady is a candidate to get dealt, Freddy Sanchezís shoulder is still a concern, and the left side of the infield is the most unproductive in baseball. For whatever reason, Adam LaRoche is a career .184/.282/.354 hitter during April.

Pitching: Itíd be nice if Ian Snell further developed a third pitch, but heís an ace in the making nevertheless. Tom Gorzelanny is a decent enough No. 3 or 4 starter, but heís acting as Pittís No. 2, and his 3.88 ERA last season was a fluke. Last yearís deadline deal to acquire Matt Morris was a microcosm of the poorly run franchise. Morris, the teamís highest paid player, had a hideous 29:22 K:BB ratio over 62 innings in Pittsburgh. Matt Capps has to be considered a top-10 fantasy closer.

John Sickels is out on a scouting tour this week, so I'm hosting a rare Friday show this week, and John Manuel from Baseball America will be my guest. I might see if John can evaluate the minor leaguers I drafted in the RotoWire Staff League yesterday, including:

Offense: Over the last couple of years, the Mets have gone from a team loaded with offensive talent that just got by with their starting staff to a franchise entering 2008 relying on pitching. Itís not that the offense isnít good, but itís an aging group, with Carlos Delgado and Moises Alou no longer reliable. Neither is Luis Castillo or the catching situation. Still, David Wright and Carlos Beltran are elite hitters, and Jose Reyes should have a better season than last year. Ryan Church will be an asset against righties, and New York will take nothing for granted after last seasonís historical collapse.

Pitching: The Johan Santana acquisition made the Mets the NLís frontrunner, and a healthy looking Pedro Martinez this spring only solidified that. Oliver Perez is still erratic, but heís pitching for a contract and combines with John Maine to form a deep rotation. The fifth starter role is murky, as Orlando Hernandez appears done, and Mike Pelfrey is perpetually disappointing. However, that wonít matter come October, and the bullpen is solid enough.

Outlandish fantasy prediction: Pedro Martinez finishes 2008 as one of the 15 most valuable pitchers.

2. Atlanta Braves (Wild Card)

Offense: After the Bravesí impressive division title run finally came to an end, a rebuilding process seemed inevitable. Apparently, that process was extremely short-lived, as Atlanta enters 2008 with a roster capable of reaching the World Series. Of course, itís also a team thatís going to rely on health more than most. Top to bottom, the Braves have the most rounded lineup in the National League. Chipper Jones is sure to miss 20-30 games, but heís still one of the gameís top-5 hitters when in the batterís box. A full season of Mark Teixeira, the continued maturation of Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar and bigger things from Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur should lead to plenty of runs put on the board. Matt Diaz is one of the better hitters no one talks about, and while Mark Kotsay is done, Atlantaís farm system is capable of improving center field later on.

Pitching: John Smoltzís health means everything. He doesnít think his latest case of shoulder soreness is serious, but itís clear his career has an expiration date approaching. Tim Hudson has followed up a superb 2007 with a terrific spring, so it looks like heís truly back to form. Tom Glavine fills the role of the proverbial ďinnings-eater,Ē while Chuck James and Jair Jurrjens provide solid depth. Anything the team can get out of Mike Hampton is gravy. The bullpen, however, is in big trouble if Rafael Soriano goes down.

Outlandish fantasy prediction: Jeff Francoeur drives in 125 runs.

3. Philadelphia Phillies

Offense: Despite Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino missing a combined 79 games due to injury, the Phillies led the NL in runs scored last season, finishing only behind the Yankees in all of baseball. Jimmy Rollins is likely to regress, but the addition of Pedro Feliz improves the defense, and better health should result in yet another potent lineup. Howard set an MLB record with 199 strikeouts despite a DL-stint, but heís the favorite to lead the league in HRs and RBI nevertheless. If every team in MLB held a draft from scratch, Utley would be a first round pick.

Pitching: Cole Hamels and Brett Myers have the potential to form the best front-end of a rotation in the game, and if Hamels somehow reaches 200 innings, heíd be a major threat to win the Cy Young; his changeup is one of the five best pitches in baseball. However, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton form a downright ugly bottom of the rotation. Itís a major team weakness that will ultimately be their downfall. Iím setting the over/under on Eatonís ERA at 6.0. The bullpen is also quite shaky, led by the flappable Brad Lidge.

Outlandish fantasy prediction: Brett Myers wins 20 games.

4. Washington Nationals

Offense: Nationals GM Jim Bowden is a man after my own heart, compiling unproven offensive talent with tons of upside, character issues be damned. Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge arenít going to win any humanitarian awards anytime soon, but combined with Austin Kearns and eventually Wily Mo Pena, this outfield could be potent. With Ryan Zimmerman ready to bust out and Nick Johnson back in action, the Nationals arenít going to finish last in runs scored like they did last season, especially with the move out of RFK Stadium. However, Iím beginning to think Felipe Lopez just isnít a very good hitter.

Pitching: John Patterson, the teamís would-be Opening Day starter, was cut; so naturally, Odalis Perez, who they just recently signed, gets the nod. Yes, the rotation is a complete mess. Even in NL-only leagues, itís doubtful any of the five starters will be usable throughout the season. They also wonít have the benefit of RFK, which suppressed homers more than any other stadium in the league last year.

Offense: Refusing to spend money, the Marlins are seemingly always in rebuilding mode. That is, when they arenít winning the World Series, of course. With Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis now gone, Florida truly is starting from scratch, and Cameron Maybin, the centerpiece of the deal, isnít ready to help the big club. Hanley Ramirez is one of the best offensive players in the game, and heíll need another monster year for the Marlins to approach mediocrity. Jeremy Hermida has a bunch of talent, but heís more likely to disappoint again than he is to finally reach expectations.

Pitching: Despite the pitcherís park, Florida finished with the NLís worst ERA last season (4.94). Their 1.58 WHIP was the worst in baseball. While the Dontrelle Willis trade might result in addition by subtraction, injuries to Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez really set back a once promising young rotation. So did Scott Olsenís regression. Still, Olsen has the stuff to be a successful major league pitcher, and Andrew Miller is a future ace, so there is some long-term potential here. Just not much in 2008.

Outlandish fantasy prediction: Scott Olsen puts it together and is a viable option even in shallow mixed leagues.

Rollins is going to be on at 12:40 ET and 7:40 ET Saturday and 1:40 ET Sunday.

Brad Evans of Yahoo! Sports, who said Davidson was his sleeper and Kansas would win it all, will be on at Noon ET Saturday, and NBA.com's Jon Loomer will be on at 12:20.

Feel free to suggest topics for any of them, particularly for Rollins. Since I have him on my Yahoo Friends and Family team, I'm going to talk to him about what's expected. More steals, particularly of third base and home plate, for example.