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Auto alternatives for the 21st centuryFri, 31 Jul 2015 13:14:21 +0000en-UShourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.21 Million Annual US Plug-In Sales Expected By 2024http://www.hybridcars.com/1-million-annual-u-s-plug-in-sales-expected-by-2024/
http://www.hybridcars.com/1-million-annual-u-s-plug-in-sales-expected-by-2024/#commentsThu, 11 Jun 2015 04:00:46 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=306346A market research company is predicting that the U.S. will reach about 1 million sales of plug-in electrified vehicles (PEVs) each year in the next decade. This news by Navigant Research forecasting PEV market trends reported both conservative and aggressive estimates, with sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and battery electric vehicle (BEV) categories […]

]]>A market research company is predicting that the U.S. will reach about 1 million sales of plug-in electrified vehicles (PEVs) each year in the next decade.

This news by Navigant Research forecasting PEV market trends reported both conservative and aggressive estimates, with sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and battery electric vehicle (BEV) categories combined for the analysis. Looking at the U.S. and Canada, the firm divided the data by region, creating a snapshot of states, provinces and metropolitan areas.

Local incentives and fuel costs were named as the primary variables for the researcher’s predications, suggesting a direct link between these and PEV sales.

U.S. Sales Forecast

According to Navigant Research, more than 133,000 PEVs were sold in North America last year. In the U.S., a breakdown of 2014 sales corresponds to 55,357 plug-in hybrid and 63,325 battery electric vehicle sales.

Over the next decade these sales will continue to grow throughout the U.S., says Navigant. The forecast predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) as high as 20.9 percent, with moderate estimates closer to 16 percent.

“Overall, the United States is expected to be the largest market throughout the forecast period, with PEV sales in 2024 exceeding 860,000 in the conservative scenario and 1.2 million in the aggressive,” said Navigant.

Dissecting the sales by region, the researchers noted that one third of all PEVs will be sold in California in 2024. This comparatively high proportion, which mirrors the state’s current share of nationwide PEV sales, mostly stems from the state’s stringent zero emission vehicle (ZEV) standards.

About 3 percent of light duty vehicles currently sold in California are PEVs; Navigant Research estimated that in the next decade this will increase to between 15 and 22 percent.

Sales of PEVs in the nine other states that follow California’s emission standards – Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont – will constitute another third of the transactions, marking a significant increase in sales for these regions. The remaining states will make up the rest of annual PEV sales.

“Outside of the ZEV states, PEV sales will grow most quickly in states with large vehicle markets, high PEV incentives, well-developed infrastructure, and a high PEV index,” said Navigant Research. “Hawaii, Washington, and Georgia are the only other states besides the 10 ZEV states expected to have penetration rates comparable to ZEV states at over 7 percent in 2024.”

Canada Sales Forecast

There are far fewer PEV sales in Canada than in the U.S. reason, partly because it takes about a year longer for plug-in electric models to reach Canada.

As the country begins catching up, the researchers predicted sales will increase faster than for the U.S. at rates between 22.8 and 25.7 percent. By 2024, sales within Canada could reach as much as 91,000 PEVs per year.

Other Considerations

Navigant Research also analyzed where PEVs will affect utility companies. Just as California is set to experience the largest growth of PEV sales, the researchers also expect that the state’s utility companies will receive the greatest impacts, with large numbers of drivers plugging in to recharge their vehicles.

Specifically, these issues will affect metropolitan areas of California the most, including Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Jose.

“Utilities serving these areas have been at the forefront of developing advanced demand-side management programs for residential PEV charging and vehicle-grid integration,” the researchers said.

“Utilities and regulatory authorities in emerging PEV markets elsewhere in the United States and Canada will likely follow suit, creating new opportunities for energy aggregators and EVSE service providers.”

]]>http://www.hybridcars.com/1-million-annual-u-s-plug-in-sales-expected-by-2024/feed/0Conventional Gas-Powered Vehicles To Comprise Fewer Than Half Of Global Car Sales By 2017http://www.hybridcars.com/conventional-gas-powered-vehicles-to-comprise-fewer-than-half-of-global-car-sales-by-2017/
http://www.hybridcars.com/conventional-gas-powered-vehicles-to-comprise-fewer-than-half-of-global-car-sales-by-2017/#commentsMon, 29 Dec 2014 14:32:32 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=233690According to Navigant Research, over half of all vehicles sold in 2017 will be powered by technologies other than the conventional non-turbo gasoline engine as we know it. This is not to suggest sophisticated electrified vehicle sales will explode in the next couple years from relatively minor percentages in many major markets, but rather an […]

]]>According to Navigant Research, over half of all vehicles sold in 2017 will be powered by technologies other than the conventional non-turbo gasoline engine as we know it.

This is not to suggest sophisticated electrified vehicle sales will explode in the next couple years from relatively minor percentages in many major markets, but rather an increase in all sorts of alternatives are increasing, including electrification as just one type.

To develop this forecast, Navigant analyzed the emerging global market for technologies that improve fuel economy, including global market forecasts for light-duty vehicle sales, segmented by powertrain, region, and number of cylinders, through 2025.

According to the researchers, multiple factors, including increasingly strict global standards to limit carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases are driving manufacturers to produce more-efficient vehicles. Although the use of alternative fuels and electric power is expected to continue growing, gasoline is anticipated to remain the leading fuel in the coming years, albeit in unconventional vehicles that employ a range of fuel-efficiency technologies, such as smaller engines and turbocharging.

“There is no single technology that will dominate fuel efficiency improvements over the forecast period through 2025,” says David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “The focus, instead, will be on incremental improvements in engines and transmissions, along with weight reduction in as many places as possible.”

Perhaps the most important innovation, according to the report, is the wide adoption of stop-start vehicles (SSVs), which eliminate idling when the vehicle is stopped and restart the engine when the driver moves from brake to accelerator. Over time, continued the report, the SSV is likely to add functionality to become more of a mild hybrid, with the ability to capture and reuse kinetic energy without the expense of a large battery.

Navigant Research stated it expects sales of gasoline and diesel SSVs to reach 63 million annually by 2025, representing 58 percent of all vehicles sold in that year.

Additional forecasts by region are provided for the volumes and associated revenue of key fuel efficiency systems and materials. The report is said to also examine the approach of the leading vehicle manufacturers, suppliers, and industry players and evaluates how the market for lighter and more efficient vehicle technologies will evolve.

]]>http://www.hybridcars.com/conventional-gas-powered-vehicles-to-comprise-fewer-than-half-of-global-car-sales-by-2017/feed/0Asia Pacific To Boost PEV Sales To 1.8 Million Annually By 2023http://www.hybridcars.com/asia-pacific-to-boost-phev-sales-to-1-8-million-annually-by-2023/
http://www.hybridcars.com/asia-pacific-to-boost-phev-sales-to-1-8-million-annually-by-2023/#commentsTue, 12 Aug 2014 04:26:19 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=178442Sales of plug-in electric vehicles could reach 1.8 million units per year 10 years from now. While plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are available in all U.S. states, most Canadian provinces and territories, and in every Western European country, they are not yet readily accessible in the Asia Pacific region. That will change over the next […]

]]>Sales of plug-in electric vehicles could reach 1.8 million units per year 10 years from now.

While plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are available in all U.S. states, most Canadian provinces and territories, and in every Western European country, they are not yet readily accessible in the Asia Pacific region. That will change over the next several years as Asia Pacific is set to become the largest market for PEV sales.

According to a recent report from Navigant Research, titled “Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts”, sales of PEVs in North America, Western Europe, and Asia Pacific will grow from 352,000 annually in 2014 to 1.8 million in 2023.

“PEVs are becoming more available and more price-competitive, both geographically and in vehicle segments outside of small and luxury car classes,” said Scott Shepard, research analyst with Navigant Research. “That is expanding the universe of potential PEV buyers beyond the narrow demographics of early adopters to a wider market that is similar to that for hybrid electric vehicles.”

Navigant stated PEVs are better suited to and marketed toward urban areas, as vehicle range requirements are typically shorter in these communities. As such, the concentration of PEVs is anticipated to be higher in geographic areas with higher populations and more households.

The largest urban markets during the forecast period, according to the report, will be Tokyo, Los Angeles, and Paris, with forecasted PEV sales in 2023 of 49,000, 39,000, and 25,000 vehicles, respectively.

Navigant also stated to date, North America is the strongest market for light duty plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), with nearly 100,000 sold in 2013. Japan is a distant second, with just under 30,000 sales, followed by the Netherlands (over 23,000) and China (over 17,000).

A noteworthy point coming out of the report has to do with the load expected on utilities. Per Navigant, how and where PEVs are bought will affect grid distribution systems and utility business models since Navigant Research estimates PEVs increase residential customer load by 33 to 37 percent.

]]>http://www.hybridcars.com/asia-pacific-to-boost-phev-sales-to-1-8-million-annually-by-2023/feed/0Light Duty Vehicles Mostly Powered By Alternative Tech By 2035http://www.hybridcars.com/light-duty-vehicles-mostly-powered-by-alt-technology-by-2035/
http://www.hybridcars.com/light-duty-vehicles-mostly-powered-by-alt-technology-by-2035/#commentsMon, 26 May 2014 05:04:50 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=152281Less than half of our vehicles will be powered by the good old combustion engine by 2035, according to Navigant Research. Driven by rising fuel costs and environmental concerns, the global light duty vehicle (LDV) market is changing rapidly through the adoption of vehicles with various levels of drivetrain electrification and vehicles that run entirely […]

]]>Less than half of our vehicles will be powered by the good old combustion engine by 2035, according to Navigant Research.

Driven by rising fuel costs and environmental concerns, the global light duty vehicle (LDV) market is changing rapidly through the adoption of vehicles with various levels of drivetrain electrification and vehicles that run entirely on alternative fuels.

Today, the overwhelming majority of LDVs in use are conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles – but hybrid, electric, and alternative fuel vehicles will make up a much greater share of the market in the coming years.

According to Navigant Research, by 2035, less than half of the LDVs in use worldwide will be conventional internal combustion vehicles.

“Automakers, governments, and motorists are all becoming increasingly concerned with fuel economy,” said Scott Shepard, research analyst with Navigant Research. “As a result, the auto industry is transforming rapidly. Engine downsizing and drivetrain electrification through stop-start and hybrid technologies will become the LDV standards by 2020.”

Among the fastest-growing alternative drivetrain technologies is stop-start, said Navigant, which eliminates idling by switching off the engine while the car is not moving. Sales of LDVs with stop-start capability will reach 48.6 million annually by 2020, according to the report, representing nearly half of the overall LDV market.

]]>http://www.hybridcars.com/light-duty-vehicles-mostly-powered-by-alt-technology-by-2035/feed/0Lithium Ion Batteries for EVs Here To Stay At Least Until 2023http://www.hybridcars.com/lithium-ion-batteries-for-ev-here-to-stay-at-least-until-2023/
http://www.hybridcars.com/lithium-ion-batteries-for-ev-here-to-stay-at-least-until-2023/#commentsThu, 03 Apr 2014 15:25:01 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=138121Lithium ion batteries are here to stay as the main choice for future hybrids and EVs, according to Navigant Research’s Electric Vehicle Batteries report. The steady increase in sales of electric vehicles (EVs) has led to advances in EV batteries, particularly those using lithium ion (Li-ion) technology. While early hybrid vehicles featured nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) […]

]]>Lithium ion batteries are here to stay as the main choice for future hybrids and EVs, according to Navigant Research’s Electric Vehicle Batteries report.

The steady increase in sales of electric vehicles (EVs) has led to advances in EV batteries, particularly those using lithium ion (Li-ion) technology. While early hybrid vehicles featured nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) batteries, Li-ion batteries have taken over, particularly in the latest generation of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs).

“The shift to lithium ion represents a major endorsement of the ability of this chemistry to perform consistently in an automotive environment,” says David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “Most of the major automakers have introduced battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) models in the last two years, almost all of which use lithium ion batteries for onboard energy storage.”

Navigant added demand for Li-ion batteries will be driven primarily by BEVs throughout the forecast period thanks to the size of the battery required, according to the report. Both hybrid EVs and PHEVs will decline slightly as a percentage of the total, while stop-start vehicles (SSVs) will see their share of the Li-ion battery market steadily increase, as a result of higher volumes of vehicle sales and the adoption of Li-ion batteries in stop-start models as the cost-per-kilowatt-hour decreases.

Navigant explained the report, “Electric Vehicle Batteries,” provides a detailed examination of the growing market for Li-ion batteries, including profiles of the leading Li-ion battery manufacturers and systems integrators. It assesses the relative sizes of the battery markets for different vehicle types, as well as vehicle roadmaps and projected sales for BEVs, PHEVs, and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs).

In the report, global market forecasts for revenue from Li-ion batteries, segmented by vehicle type and region, extend through 2023. The report also includes a review of the different Li-ion battery chemistries and competing technologies, such as ultracapacitors and NiMH batteries.

]]>http://www.hybridcars.com/lithium-ion-batteries-for-ev-here-to-stay-at-least-until-2023/feed/0Stop-Start Technology Found On Half Of Vehicles By 2021http://www.hybridcars.com/stop-start-technology-found-on-half-of-vehicles-by-2021/
http://www.hybridcars.com/stop-start-technology-found-on-half-of-vehicles-by-2021/#commentsThu, 27 Mar 2014 14:35:38 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=135641Stop-start is a feature found on more vehicles as the years go by. More than half of light-duty vehicles worldwide will be so equipped, according to a Navigant study. Stop-start vehicles incorporate a simple yet valuable feature: they eliminate idling by shutting off the engine when the vehicle is stationary, and then restart it automatically […]

]]>Stop-start is a feature found on more vehicles as the years go by. More than half of light-duty vehicles worldwide will be so equipped, according to a Navigant study.

Stop-start vehicles incorporate a simple yet valuable feature: they eliminate idling by shutting off the engine when the vehicle is stationary, and then restart it automatically when the driver releases the brake.

Stop-start technology, which offers some of the fuel economy benefits of hybrid vehicles at a fraction of the cost premium, is being incorporated into new light-duty vehicle models at a rapid pace.

By 2021, according to a report from Navigant Research, more than half of all light-duty vehicles sold worldwide will incorporate stop-start capability.

“The newest stop-start systems coming to market incorporate some drive assistance, which classifies the models that use them as true micro hybrid vehicles,” says David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “Micro hybrid technology enables large vehicles to be designed to run leaner without sacrificing drivability, and small vehicles to be set up for limited electric-only operation.”

Navigant said the primary driver for manufacturers to incorporate stop-start technology is tightening restrictions on fuel consumption and emissions in most countries, according to the report. Vehicle manufacturers must achieve specific average fuel economy targets in order to avoid financial penalties in many countries. Automakers are also responding to consumers who increasingly want better fuel efficiency in the vehicles they buy.

The report titled “Stop-Start Vehicles” analyzes the opportunities and challenges present in the global market for light duty start-stop vehicles (SSVs), also known as micro hybrids, idle stop vehicles, and a variety of other names branded by automakers. The report examines stop-start component systems, including the technologies used for energy storage.

According to the report, growth in light duty SSV sales during the next decade will be predominately in the three major market regions of North America, Western Europe, and Asia Pacific, primarily because these regions are the most aggressive in their implementation of fuel economy and emissions regulations. Stop-start systems will help to roll out other electrification features that will combine with engine downsizing and other enhancements to increase efficiency without large-scale adoption of full hybrid or plug-in electric capability.

Navigant Researchers forecasts that total global sales for light duty SSVs will exceed 55 million by 2022, accounting for 54.3 percent of total vehicle sales.

Steady but gradual growth in sales of electric vehicles, however, has limited opportunities for makers of advanced batteries, including Li-ion batteries. Several companies have either entered bankruptcy or shut down, leaving a few hardy firms struggling to remain solvent until the EV market creates a growing worldwide demand for electric drivetrains.

According to a new Leaderboard report published by Navigant Research, LG Chem and Johnson Controls currently lead the EV battery market in terms of both strategy and execution.

Although the majority of automobiles with traction batteries on the road have nickel metal hydride (NiMH) cells, most new production vehicles will be shipped with Li-ion batteries in the coming years.

Navigant Research expects the industry to produce 49 gigawatt-hour of battery capacity for vehicles in 2020, a more than tenfold increase over 2013 production numbers.

“The lithium ion battery manufacturing space is not for the weak of heart,” says Sam Jaffe, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “The electric vehicle market is growing slowly and the battery manufacturers are engaged in a Darwinian fight for survival.”

Three companies (LG Chem, Johnson Controls, and AESC) were ranked as “Leaders” in the report’s Leaderboard Grid.

South Korea-based LG Chem surprised many in the automotive field by winning the Chevrolet Volt contract in 2008, and has since followed through with several other major automotive contracts.

Deciding not to invest in building factories to serve a market that has not fully appeared yet, Johnson Controls has focused its strategy on developing the second generation of batteries. Its NMC battery chemistry, which will be officially launched late in 2013 or early in 2014, is highly regarded by many potential buyers and could win some of the world’s biggest automotive contracts.

AESC, the joint venture between Nissan Motor Company and NEC, is the only manufacturer of Li-ion cells that is directly owned by an automotive manufacturer, and the company has produced significant volumes of batteries, primarily for the Nissan Leaf.

Using Navigant Research’s proprietary Leaderboard methodology, vendors are profiled, rated, and ranked with the goal of providing industry participants with an objective assessment of these companies’ relative strengths and weaknesses in the global electric vehicle battery market.

]]>http://www.hybridcars.com/navigant-research-lg-chem-and-johnson-controls-leading-ev-battery-makers/feed/0Fuel Cell Vehicle Market Study Publishedhttp://www.hybridcars.com/fuel-cell-vehicle-market-study-published/
http://www.hybridcars.com/fuel-cell-vehicle-market-study-published/#commentsFri, 31 May 2013 10:19:49 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=59441The fuel cell vehicle market is in the midst of ramping up to commercialization. As such, the market appears fairly quiet, with annual sales well under 500 in 2011 and in 2012. However, much needs to happen behind the scenes for the industry to meet 2015 commercialization targets for light duty fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). […]

]]>The fuel cell vehicle market is in the midst of ramping up to commercialization.

As such, the market appears fairly quiet, with annual sales well under 500 in 2011 and in 2012.

However, much needs to happen behind the scenes for the industry to meet 2015 commercialization targets for light duty fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). Automakers planning to meet that 2015 target are in the process of engineering out costs and optimizing performance, and a few forward-looking governments are preparing the infrastructure and regulatory environment needed for commercial FCVs.

Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, and the Nordic countries have taken the lead, with a variety of “H2Mobility” programs.

The United States has fallen out of the leadership spot, although the state of California continues to make preparations.

The biggest challenge for automakers will be reaching sufficient volume to bring down system and balance of plant costs – which is leading several automakers, including Daimler, to form technology partnerships.

The transit bus market also needs high volume to bring down costs. Europe continues to lead on fuel cell bus deployments, but annual orders are still well under 100, and the market needs to reach 1,000 orders annually to see significant cost reductions.

Finally, the global scooter market is in the millions, and fuel cells continue to be developed in an effort to capture some of that market.

Navigant Research published a report titled “Fuel Cell Vehicles” in which it forecasts that worldwide sales of FCVs will reach the 1,000 mark in 2015 and then begin a period of strong growth, surpassing 2 million vehicles annually by 2030.

This Navigant Research report outlines in detail the state of policies and programs that will support FCV deployment and the commercialization plans of the major industry players. The report examines the state of technology in reaching application cost targets, and profiles innovative startups that could disrupt the market. The report also details conditions in three major emerging bus markets (Brazil, China, and India) and provides a long-term forecast for fuel cell light duty vehicles, buses, and scooters, segmented by region, through 2030.

]]>http://www.hybridcars.com/fuel-cell-vehicle-market-study-published/feed/0Worldwide Capacity of EV Lithium Ion Batteries To Multiply More than 10-Fold by 2020http://www.hybridcars.com/worldwide-capacity-of-ev-lithium-ion-batteries-to-multiply-more-than-10-fold-by-2020/
http://www.hybridcars.com/worldwide-capacity-of-ev-lithium-ion-batteries-to-multiply-more-than-10-fold-by-2020/#commentsTue, 21 May 2013 04:32:23 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=58934Improvements in lithium ion (Li-ion) battery technology are helping to accelerate the worldwide market for electric vehicles (EVs). In the last few years, most automakers have shifted from nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) batteries to Li-ion batteries. This shift represents a major endorsement of Li-ion chemistry and its ability to perform consistently in an automotive environment. According […]

In the last few years, most automakers have shifted from nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) batteries to Li-ion batteries. This shift represents a major endorsement of Li-ion chemistry and its ability to perform consistently in an automotive environment.

According to a recent report from Navigant Research, total worldwide capacity of Li-ion batteries for transportation applications will increase more than ten-fold, from 4,400 megawatt-hours (MWh) in 2013 to nearly 49,000 MWh by 2020.

The immediate future looks to be secure for the Li-ion chemistry, although there are many variants still under development to improve performance and reduce cost. The technology continues to improve, and leading battery cell manufacturers have built new factories utilizing the latest production techniques including greater automation and faster throughput.

“Li-ion technology continues to improve, as increased energy densities translate into smaller and lighter battery packs with more power,” says David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “At the same time, leading battery cell manufacturers have built new factories utilizing the latest production techniques, including greater automation and faster throughput. This will lead to a reduction in the cost per kilowatt-hour (kWh) over the next few years, provided that volumes continue to increase.”

The market for Li-ion batteries will primarily be driven by the growth of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), as they utilize much larger battery packs than plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).

Today’s BEVs use battery packs ranging from 16 kilowatt-hour to 85 kilowatt-hour, compared to PHEVs that typically use packs ranging from 4 kilowatt-hour to 16 kilowatt-hour.

Additionally, many recently introduced hybrid vehicles, such as the Honda Civic Hybrid, use Li-ion batteries, and the percentage of hybrids using Li-ion technology is expected to grow steadily as automakers update their models.

The report, “Electric Vehicle Batteries”, provides a detailed examination of the growing market for Li-ion batteries, including profiles of all of the leading Li-ion battery manufacturers.