U.S. stocks rose ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes on Wednesday. The benchmark S&P500 added 0.55% to 2270.35 with gains led by consumer discretionary stocks.

Investors are waiting for the Fed’s minutes for its latest meeting when it decided to raise rate for just the second time in a decade. As the central bank is expected to accelerate its rate-hike speed in 2017, markets will be scrutinizing the bank’s viewpoint about President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge of fiscal stimulus.

The S&P 500 witnessed 9 out of 11 sectors trading higher, with consumer discretionary topping the market. While stocks of consumer discretionary contributed to a rise of 1.62%, telecommunications and energy were riding a decline.

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Asian stocks extended gains on Wednesday with Japanese equities ticking higher on the first trading day of 2017. Japan’s Topix index gained more than 2.4%, reaching the highest in more than a year while Nikkei 225 Stock Average also took off, rising 2.51% to settle at 19,594.16. Both two benchmarks recorded the best first day of trading since 2013.

Meanwhile, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index shed 0.2% to 365.04 as 11:20 GMT on Wednesday after closing at the highest level since Dec. 2015 on Tuesday. Banking shares were trading in a positive territory but failed to offset losses caused by retailers. Shares of Next PLC led declines, tumbling more than 11% after the U.K. fashion retailer cut its annual profit forecast and warned on a difficult year ahead.

On the data front, the European Union's statistics agency on Wednesday said its consumer prices rose at the fastest annual rate in more than three years last month. The pickup in the overall measure of the Eurozone’s inflation stemmed from a rise in energy charges, which sent the index to 1.1% higher in December from 0.6% in November. However, the core rate – which excludes prices of items such as energy and food – advanced only 0.9%, triggering caution for the European Central Bank that the sharp rise in inflation may be unstable.

Crude prices recovered from a big loss a day prior on expectations U.S. crude oil stockpiles will contract last week. The contract for Brent crude futures hit a fresh 18-month high in the previous session but could not sustain the bullish momentum and fell on the back of a strong dollar. The benchmark settled at $55.47 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading at $52.53 per barrel, not far from the last settlement. According to analysts polled by Reuters, weekly U.S. statistics on oil stocks due on Thursday are expected to show a 1.7 million barrel draw.

Technicals

AUDCAD

AUDCAD

Fig: AUDCAD H4 Technical Chart

AUDCAD failed to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.97330 to reverse lower. The price action not only crossed over both the long-term and short-term moving averages but also breached the support at 0.96900. The pair is heading for a six-month low at 0.96000.

NZDJPY pulled back from the 50.0% Fibonacci support at 81.550 where it also faced the long-term MA50. Spurred by bullish sentiment from both the fixed and dynamic supports, the pair ticked higher, attempting to retest the resistance at 82.000. RSI has rebounded from the 50-line, confirming further advances.

Silver has been moving indecisively below the firm resistance at 16.450 level. As can be observed from recent candles, most of them have extremely thin bodies and long shadows, suggesting that the metal is struggling to find direction. However, silver has also been supported by the MAs and parabolic sar, which may send the price to the 61.8% Fib. level.

Coffee has been riding a bull run since it rebounded from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 135.65. The up moves has not only sent the price action above the long-term 50-period moving average but also brought the market into the bullish zone, as indicated by the RSI chart. The 50.0% level is within the sight.

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Asian shares advanced for an eighth consecutive day on Thursday, mirroring gains on Wall Street overnight. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.8 percent to a three-week high with Australia and Hong Kong leading gains. The Hang Seng added 1.2%, looking set for the highest level since Dec. 14. While Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.4 percent. On the contrary, Japan's Nikkei shed 0.3 percent as the yen edged up on the dollar.

The greenback fell after the minutes of the Dec. 13-14 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee had been released in Washington on Wednesday. According to the minutes, almost all officials indicated that the prospects for fiscal stimulus under President-elect Trump’s administration could boost economic growth in the coming years. However, it still remained unchanged about “how such changes might alter the economic outlook”, the minutes said.

At the meeting, members highlighted the potential of higher inflation thanks to stronger economic growth and further increases in oil prices, which may require a more aggressive rate-hike path. Nonetheless, some officials stated that a stronger dollar could continue to offset rise in inflation. Most on the committee reiterated that a “gradual” pace of rate hikes over the coming years would likely remain appropriate.

Crude prices saw a rebound overnight following weekly data by American Petroleum Institute (API) that showed U.S. crude inventories fell 7.4 million barrels to 482.7 million in the week ended Dec. 30. The reading was far above analyst expectations for a decrease of 2.2 million barrels.

Elsewhere, China’s services sector was reported to accelerated to a 17-month high last month. The nation’s Markit/Caixin services purchasing managers' index (PMI) ticked higher to 53.4 in December on a seasonally adjusted basis from 53.1 in November, adding evidences to views that China is starting the new year with stronger momentum.

Technicals

EURCHF

Fig: EURCHF H4 Technical Chart

EURCHF extended its bull run after pulling back from the support at 1.06800. The price action has penetrated both the long-term and short-term MAs from below and is heading upwards to a strong resistance at 23.6% Fibonacci level. Coupled with the RSI index that is edging higher, parabolic sar which moving below the price action also supports further advances.

GBPJPY has fallen sharply to test the support at 142.500 and is expected to break below this level. The last time the pair failed to breach this handle is on December 29th when the market was on the verge of falling into the oversold zone. This time, there is room for further declines with RSI at 34.34. -DI line is soaring higher, signaling a strong bearish momentum.

Silver has been on an uptrend for three-straight trading days. Steady up moves have brought the price above the 61.8% Fibonacci level and sent the silver market into the overbought zone. As can be seen from the chart, the grey metal has fallen into a correction but chances for the rally to resume stay strong.

DAX 30 index rebounded from a firm support at 11540.00 which also prevented the price from falling further yesterday. The price action has move past the moving averages and is heading towards the resistance at 11650.00. RSI has crossed over the central line, confirming the uptrend.

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U.K. shares retreated from a record settlement on Friday, weighed down by stocks of precious metals miners as gold trimmed this week rally. The FTSE 100 index fell 0.07% as of 08:00 GMT to 7190.12, looking set for the first negative close in the last nine sessions.

On Thursday, the benchmark witnessed the eight straight day of closing higher and the sixth consecutive record close, which is the longest streak since 1997.

Gold miners topped the list of fallers in Friday’s trading session in London. Shares of Fresnillo PLC saw the biggest decline in the market, dropping more than 2% while those of Randgold Resources Ltd. lost around 1.8%.This was due to the slide in gold price which edged 0.26% lower to trade at $1,176 an ounce.

Leading the risers is payments processor Worldpay and Lloyds Banking Group whose ratings were upgraded by Exane BNP Paribas and Barclays, respectively.

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U.K. shares retreated from a record settlement on Friday, weighed down by stocks of precious metals miners as gold trimmed this week rally. The FTSE 100 index fell 0.07% as of 08:00 GMT to 7190.12, looking set for the first negative close in the last nine sessions.

On Thursday, the benchmark witnessed the eight straight day of closing higher and the sixth consecutive record close, which is the longest streak since 1997.
Gold miners topped the list of fallers in Friday’s trading session in London. Shares of Fresnillo PLC saw the biggest decline in the market, dropping more than 2% while those of Randgold Resources Ltd. lost around 1.8%.This was due to the slide in gold price which edged 0.26% lower to trade at $1,176 an ounce.

Leading the risers is payments processor Worldpay and Lloyds Banking Group whose ratings were upgraded by Exane BNP Paribas and Barclays, respectively.

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U.S. shares turned higher on Friday following a December U.S. jobs report that was interpreted as generally positive. The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average inched closer to the psychologically important 20,000 level.

According to monthly data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added 156,000 jobs last month. Although the heading figure was much below the consensus of 180,000 jobs forecast by the economists, the reading for November was revised sharply upwards.

In addition, worker pay rose at the fastest pace since the Great Recession at the rate of 0.4% in December. Annual gain in 2016 jumped to 2.9% – the fastest increase since a recovery that began in mid-2009. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.7% from 4.6% as more people entered the labor force in search of work.

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European stocks were mixed on Monday with U.K. shares advancing higher while German and broader European equities falling. Meanwhile, U.S. equity futures pointed to a positive territory as gains in most Asian markets helped fuel the bullish sentiment. Markets in Japan were closed for a holiday.

The Stoxx Europe 600 lost 0.41% to 363.85, with Lufthansa’s stock LHA topping the list of fallers. The German airline’s shares dropped more than 5% after it stated late Friday that fuel costs will rise this year. The company failed to provide an earnings forecast for 2017. Germany’s DAX 30 DAX shed 0.36% to 11556.14 and France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.56% to 4882.46.

Only the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was on a rise. The equity benchmark rose 0.22% to 7,227.25 as the pound fell following comments from Prime Minister Theresa May that signaled a “hard Brexit.” Sterling extended its decline from Friday. Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May in an interview with Sky News on Sunday said that negotiations on Brexit will be about “getting the right relationship, not about keeping bits of membership.

The dollar strengthened as demand for the greenback was spurred by the latest non-farm payrolls which stoked optimism over the world’s largest economy’s growth and inflation moving towards the central bank’s 2% target. Data released last Friday showed the U.S. added 156,000 jobs in December and revised November’s reading sharply higher. More people attended the labour market and wage rose at a considerable rate, said the report.

Elsewhere, the offshore yuan witnessed its biggest two-day drop since June. The exchange rate fell another 0.6 percent on Monday, extending a 0.9 percent drop on Friday that was the biggest in a year. According to the People’s Bank of China, China’s foreign currency holdings fell for a sixth month in December. Due to the PBOC’s efforts to prop up the local currency, Chinese reserves plunged by $41.1 billion to a fresh five-year low of $3.01 trillion last month, sending last year’s drop to $320 billion.

Technicals

USDZAR

Fig: USDZAR H4 Technical Chart

USDZAR was on track to complete a double-bottom pattern after it rebounded from the 38.2% Fibonacci level. This is a strong support as it has prevented the pair from falling lower since mid-December, 2016. The price action has not only been able to cross over both short-term and long-term MAs but also did breach the resistance formed by connecting lower highs. The pair is expected to retest the resistance at 13.83700.

EURCAD has been moving sideways following a steep drop last Friday. The pair has been under downward pressure exerted by the short-term 20-period moving average. Sellers still dominated in the market, as suggested by the RSI indicator index that is under 50.

Gold remained above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement with the support from the short-term MA20. As can be observed from the RSI and stochastic charts, both indicators are pointing to overwhelming bullish force in the market. Gold may retest the resistance at 1185.00.

CAC 40 index plunged steeply from one-week high at 4924.90. The downward rally sent the price back to a support at around 4875.00 and brought the market into the bearish territory, as indicated by the RSI chart. In the event of continual decline, the index may retest the support at 4855.00.

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U.K. shares were set for the tenth advancing session in a row and another settlement record on Monday with gains led by miners and a weakening pound.
The benchmark FTSE 100 jumped to as high as 7,239.00 in early trade then retreated. However, the index remained near all-time record. Thanks to the decline in Sterling following comments from Prime Minister Theresa May that signaled a “hard Brexit” in an interview with Sky News on Sunday, mining stocks were the biggest gainers.

A weaker pound can help lift U.K. stocks as it tends to prop up these companies’ international revenue and profit outside of Britain when they are converted to sterling. Anglo American PLC added 1.94% while Glencore PLC gained 2.01%.

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