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This Is Money Markets

DAILY MARKET REPORT
January 11th 2017

EUR/USD

The American dollar weakened further in the Asian trading session, sending the EUR/USD up to 1.0626, a fresh weekly high, although the pair changed course mid European morning, unable to sustain gains above the 1.0600 level. There were no macroeconomic news in the EU, while in the US, data were mixed, with the number of jobs´ openings little changed in November at 5.522 million, against expectations of 5.555M and below previous 5.451M. The NFIB Business Optimism Index for November, jumped to 105.8 beating expectations and previous 98.4, the biggest confidence monthly rise since 1980 and the highest since the end of 2004.

The greenback has been generally soft in the near-term, but the long term scenario, with healthy employment, growing inflation, and the Central Bank being the only in the tightening path, continues favoring dollar’s gains in the longer run. Intraday, the absence of macroeconomic releases has left majors at the goodwill of sentiment, led by stocks. With European and American equities modestly up, the dollar closed higher against most of its major rivals. The EUR/USD pair fell down to 1.0550 and trades a few pips above it by the end of the US session, offering now a neutral stance in the 4 hours chart, as the price is stuck around the 23.6% retracement of its latest monthly slide and the 20 SMA, both around 1.0565, while technical indicators have turned modestly lower around their mid-lines, lacking directional momentum. A break below 1.0500 should see the pair resuming its decline, while only beyond 1.0650, December 29th high, the pair can gather some upward momentum and extend its upward corrective move up to 1.0710.

Support levels: 1.0530 1.0490 1.0445

Resistance levels: 1.0580 1.0620 1.0650

This Is Money Markets

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair maintains the bearish tone seen late last week, falling down to 115.19 this Tuesday, and unable to regain the 116.00 mark, in spite of marginally stronger dollar by the end of the day. Yields remained stable in the US, with the 10-year note benchmark at 2.38%, unchanged from its previous close. Japan will release its preliminary leading economic index and December’s foreign reserves during the upcoming session, these lasts being more relevant given latest news coming from China. In the meantime, and from a technical point of view, the pair is biased lower in intraday charts, as in the 1 hour one, the price is developing below its 100 and 200 SMAs, with the shortest providing an immediate resistance at 116.25, and technical indicators having quickly resuming their declines after entering positive territory. In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator heads south below its 100 level, the RSI consolidates around 43, while the price struggles around the 200 SMA, having pared early gains well below the 100 SMA. A break below 115.00 will expose the long term Fibonacci support at 114.00, and even though, the movement will remain corrective, as it will mean that the pair retraced half of its latest gains.

Support levels: 115.40 115.00 114.60

Resistance levels: 116.10 116.60 117.00

This Is Money Markets

GBP/USD

Brexit-related concerns maintained the Pound under pressure, with the GBP/USD pair extending its slide to a fresh multi-month low of 1.2106 mid London session. There were no fundamental news coming from the UK this Tuesday, but on Wednesday, the kingdom will release its latest Trade Balance data, alongside with manufacturing and industrial production figures, which surprised to the downside in October, and may disappoint again tomorrow. Good results from the mentioned reports will likely do little for the Pound, as the ongoing negative tone is based on political woes, although another round of negative readings will only fuel Pound’s slide. The pair advanced up to 1.2189, but quickly retraced and in the 4 hours chart, the risk remains towards the downside, as the 20 SMA has accelerated its slide far above the current level, while the RSI indicator resumed its decline after a modest upward correction from oversold readings. The Momentum indicator in the mentioned chart also stands well below its mid-line, supporting the case of a new leg lower on a break below the 1.2080 region, a strong static support area.

Support levels: 1.2130 1.2085 1.2050

Resistance levels: 1.2200 1.2240 1.2290

This Is Money Markets

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar extended its latest rally against the greenback, posting a fresh 4-week high of 0.7384 before closing the day marginally higher some 20 pips below such high. The Aussie found support in mixed Chinese inflation figures, as December’s CPI eased to 2.1% from 2.3%, just above the 12-month average of 2.0%, although the core reading ticked higher. Producer prices, however, rose beyond expected, up by 5.5% against a media forecast of 4.5% and previous 3.3%. Base metals also underpinned the Australian currency, with iron ore prices up 5.5% this Tuesday to their best level in nearly a month, and copper prices adding roughly 3%. The AUD/USD pair retreated after reaching a major resistance, the 61.8% retracement of the latest daily slide, with the following pullback meeting buying interest around the 50% retracement of the same decline, indicating that buying interest remains strong. In the 4 hours chart, the price held above a bullish 20 SMA, although the moving average has lost upward strength. The same happened with technical indicators that turned flat within positive territory, indicating the need of fresher highs to confirm a steeper advance beyond the 0.7400 level.

Support: levels: 0.7340 0.7300 0.7270

Resistance levels: 0.7390 0.7420 0.7450

This Is Money Markets

GBP/CAD

The GBP/CAD cross extended its slide to a fresh multi-month low of 1.6005 on Pound’s persistent weakness, but closed the day flat around 1.6085, as a late decline in oil prices put the Canadian dollar under pressure in the US afternoon. Monday’s news reporting that Iraq will raise its crude export to all-time highs in February, overshadowed the positive developments in non-OPEC countries, as Russia and Kazakhstan announced they’ve met or exceeded their initial goals for trimming oil output, while the technical breakout of the 52.00 level fueled oil’s decline. Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the risk remains towards the downside, as the 20 SMA continued falling above the current level, now around 1.6190, while technical indicators have partially corrected extreme oversold readings before resuming their slides, with the RSI rejected by 30. Renewed selling pressure of further Pound’s weakness, will likely see the cross breaking through the 1.6000 level, accelerating its decline afterwards, with 1.5930 as a probable bearish target for the upcoming sessions.

Support levels: 1.6035 1.5980 1.5930

Resistance levels: 1.6120 1.6190 1.6250

This Is Money Markets

Dow Jones

US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average turning lower in the last hour of trading, and closing at 19,855.53 down by 31 points. The S&P ended flat at 2,268.90, while the Nasdaq posted its third straight record close, up by 20 points to 5,551.82. Investors turned cautious ahead of a press conference by US President-elect, Donald Trump, scheduled for this Wednesday, moreover after the FED acknowledge the uncertainty related to his upcoming mandate. From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the Dow shows that the index opened and closed below its 20 DMA, while technical indicators continued grinding lower, the Momentum around its 100 level and the RSI at 57, not enough to confirm further slide. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the index remains below its 20 and 100 SMAs, both horizontal a few points above the current level, while technical indicators have gained bearish strength within negative territory, anticipating some further slides on a break below 19,837, the daily low and the immediate support.

Support levels: 19,837 19,787 19,715

Resistance levels: 19,920 19,985 20,045

This Is Money Markets

FTSE

Footsie’s rally to record highs continued this Tuesday, with the benchmark up 37 points or 0.52% to close at 7,275.47, helped by Pound’s continued weakness. It was the ninth consecutive record-high close and the 11th consecutive daily gain, the longest winning streak in almost eight years. Higher base metals’ prices, also helped the index, with Anglo American nailing a 9.03% gain, followed by Rio Tinto that added 6.41% and Fresnillo which added 4.53%. In the daily chart, the rally is beginning to look overstretched, as the RSI indicator heads north around 77, although the Momentum indicator presents a moderate upward potential, pretty much flat within positive territory. In the 4 hours chart, a bullish 20 SMA, continues advancing below the current level, while the RSI pulled back modestly, but remains in overbought territory, at 73, while the Momentum indicator is also flat, due to the limited intraday range seen lately. The risk of a downward corrective has become high, yet as long as the Pound remains under pressure, declines will likely be limited.

Support levels: 7,244 7,178 7,146

Resistance levels: 7,286 7,330 7,365

This Is Money Markets

Gold

Gold prices kept advancing this Tuesday, with spot reaching 1,190.50, its highest since November 30th, to settle at $1,186.70 a troy ounce by the end of the US afternoon. The soft tone of the US currency has kept the commodity underpinned ever since it bottomed near $1,100 a troy ounce last December, but even after rising to a fresh six weeks´ high, the movement is seen as corrective, and further gains are not yet clear, particularly if Trump delivers in its first days at the office. Uncertainty ahead of the policies the upcoming US president will apply, and how they would affect the world’s largest economy, is the only reason of gold´s gains. From a technical point of view, the daily chart presents a clear upward potential, as indicators continue rallying within positive territory, whilst the 20 SMA is turning higher far below the current level. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators have partially lost their bullish strength, but remain within positive territory, while buying interest is still surging on declines towards a bullish 20 SMA, currently at 1,179.50.

Support levels: 1,179.50 1,173.10 1,165.20

Resistance levels: 1,190.50 1,197.20 1,208.00

This Is Money Markets

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David Jean-Baptiste: Executive Chairman and inventor of Flow Centre, a successful clarinettist, saxophonist, trader and entrepreneurial creative thinker. With endorsements as an artist from Henri Selmer Paris .

THE CLARITIQUE QUESTIONNAIRE

(for people desiring to squeeze more juice from life)

1. Can you share one Intention you most desire to achieve?

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David Jean-Baptiste

Time v Income Reality Check

How much income do you earn per hour of work?
How many hours do you work on business that are currently non-income producing?
Where do you have time-leaks?
What impact are they having on your life?
Can you leverage the time that you work?

Open to Change Check

What would your ideal scenario be?
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3. Understand your own pain verses pleasure continuum. People will do more to move away from pain than they will do to move towards pleasure.
Get clear on your vision and mission. Your vision being what you desire at a level of your identity, and mission being why you want it.

What is money? Money is perceived value of something, plus creativity, plus passion.

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