Rob SmithThe Biz of Baseball, part of the Business of Sports Network. From contracts to stadiums, television to radio, if it's baseball outside the diamond, we cover it.http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=86&Itemid=198
Sun, 02 Aug 2015 22:27:59 +0000Joomla! 1.5 - Open Source Content Managementen-gbWhy Evan Longoria Will Have A Huge 2012 Seasonhttp://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5621:why-evan-longoria-will-have-a-huge-2012-season&catid=86:rob-smith&Itemid=198
http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5621:why-evan-longoria-will-have-a-huge-2012-season&catid=86:rob-smith&Itemid=198It's common knowledge that Evan Longoria is the Tampa Bay Rays' best player, but he's about to get even better.

That might be difficult to believe considering Longoria is coming off a 31-homerun, 98-RBI 2011 season, which he memorably capped with a walk-off homerun on the final day of the regular season to send the Rays to the playoffs for the third time in the past four years, but it's true.

In addition to the obvious misfortune of dealing with injuries last year (Longoria missed 29 games), he was also a victim of having terrible luck when he put the ball in play. The BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) statistic illustrates this point.

BABIP has grown in popularity due to its ability to diagnose anomalous individual seasons that a player may produce. An unusually high BABIP tends to be followed by a regression, while an extremely low BABIP indicates a rebound season is forthcoming. Longoria's 2011 is a prime example of the latter.

The league average BABIP typically lands between .290 and .310. This means that for every hundred at bats in which a hitter makes contact, about thirty will result in base hits. Predictably, the better players usually have a high BABIP by virtue of consistently making solid contact. Until last year, Longoria had been one of those players. In his first three big league seasons (2008-2010), Longoria posted BABIPs of .309, .313 and .336. In 2011, his BABIP fell to .239.

In trying to keep this as simple as possible, BABIP is often influenced by the proportion of ground balls, line drives and fly balls a player hits. Fly balls produce more outs than ground balls, which produce more outs than line drives. So, the more line drives and ground balls a player hits, the better his BABIP is likely to be. Considering Longoria's BABIP fell nearly 100 points from the 2010 season to 2011, one would assume that he was hitting a lot more fly balls while producing fewer ground balls and line drives. Statistics reveal that was not the case. Although Longoria hit more fly balls in 2011 (44.7%) than in 2010 (43.1%), he also hit more grounders, too (36.6% in 2010, 37.3% in 2011). His line drive rate decreased from 20.3 percent to 18, but that is nowhere near drastic enough to explain such a large drop in BABIP.

Notwithstanding Longoria's fluky bad luck in 2011, there are other reasons to expect 2012 to be his best season to date. Despite playing in 18 fewer games than he did in 2010, Longoria drew 80 walks (his previous career high had been 72). His increase in plate discipline and power explains why Longoria's wOBA suffered only a marginal decrease (from .376 in 2010 to .365 in 2011) despite such a horrid BABIP. Further, Longoria lost 10 to 15 pounds this offseason in hopes of avoiding the muscle injuries that have sidelined him in previous seasons.

So, if Longoria's BABIP returns to even a league average figure in 2012 ( it will likely be higher), and his leaner frame allows him to play a full season, we can expect the Rays' franchise player to produce the MVP-caliber season he's capable of.

]]>info@bizofbaseball.com (Rob Smith)Rob Smith Article ArchiveWed, 07 Mar 2012 17:23:22 +0000Tampa Bay Rays Save Money Signing Matt Moore Long-Termhttp://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5547:tampa-bay-rays-save-money-signing-matt-moore-long-term&catid=86:rob-smith&Itemid=198
http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5547:tampa-bay-rays-save-money-signing-matt-moore-long-term&catid=86:rob-smith&Itemid=198It took only one regular season start for Matt Moore to convince the Tampa Bay Rays that he was worth keeping around for the long haul.

Sure, there was a glimpse of playoff brilliance and a few years of minor league dominance sandwiched around that. But the fact remains that less than three months after making his MLB debut, the Rays signed Moore to a five-year, $14 million deal which could become an eight-year, $37 million contract through team options and incentives.

It's the type of shrewd foresight that Rays' Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman has consistently demonstrated in turning the Rays into a playoff team three out of the past four years despite strict payroll constraints.

Signing Moore buys out his first two years of arbitration (2015 and 2016), and will delay Moore's free agency by two years (2018 and 2019) if the Rays exercise each of their option years.

While Moore will earn far more than the minimum salary he was slated to earn in 2012, 2013 and 2014, the team will recoup that money in the following two seasons when Moore is locked into $2.8 million salaries instead of going through the arbitration process. The logic assumes that Moore will be the elite, front-line starter that most people in the league expect him to become, but it seems like a safe bet. Moore dominated the Yankees in his first career start, striking out 11 in five shutout innings. He also gave the Rays their lone postseason win over Texas, yielding only two hits over seven shutout innings.

As an example of what can happen if teams go the arbitration route, the Giants signed Tim Lincecum to a two-year, $23 million deal just before Lincecum was set to go to arbitration for the first time. He had won the past two NL Cy Youngs (in 2008 and 2009) and would've been eligible for four years of (pricey) arbitration before hitting free agency. Still, by waiting for Lincecum to put his elite talent on full display for a couple years before signing him, the Giants ended up paying a steeper price than the Rays will if Moore fulfills the potential he's already exhibited, albeit briefly.

This isn't to imply that Moore will win back-to-back Cy Youngs. But if he becomes the ace that baseball executives expect him to, the Rays (a team that needs all the financial help it can get) will have saved themselves a considerable amount of money buying out his arbitration years alone.

The three team options will keep Moore affordable for the Rays (or whatever their team name is by then) into his thirties. Had Moore played out his mandatory six years (at his projected elite level) before hitting free agency at 29, the Rays would've almost certainly been outbid for his continued services by the Haves of the baseball world. By giving themselves the option to delay Moore's free agency by two years at a reasonable rate, the Rays may have bought themselves a little extra time to get their stadium issue resolved and create the revenues necessary to keep elite talents like Moore instead of watching them sign with the Red Sox or Yankees.

The plan to pay Moore immediately could backfire of course. He wouldn't be the first prospect to not pan out. Still, the $14 million commitment from the Rays is a pittance compared to what it would've cost them if Moore becomes the ace that most MLB executives believe he will eventually be, if he's not already.

The Atlanta Braves and Cleveland Indians kicked off MLB's hot stove season Monday when the Braves sent 38-year-old pitcher Derek Lowe and financial considerations to Cleveland for minor-league pitcher Chris Jones.

Atlanta will be on the hook for $10 million of Lowe's $15 million salary in the final year of the four-year, $60 million contract the Braves signed him to prior to the 2009 season. In his three years in Atlanta, Lowe compiled a 40-39 record with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. The emergence of rookies Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy, the return of Kris Medlen (who missed most of 2011 following Tommy John surgery), and the arrival of promising prospects Randall Delgado, Julio Teheran, and Arodys Vizcaino leaves the Braves with an abundance of viable end-of-the-rotation options, thus rendering Lowe expendable.

The Braves' pitching depth wasn't the only factor leading to the trade, however. Lowe's 2011 season (9-17, 5.05 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) was easily the worst of his 15-year career, and his trademark sinker lost its effectiveness due to a drop in velocity. During the Braves' September collapse, Lowe lost all five of his starts and posted a horrid 8.74 ERA. The Indians, who will be without Carlos Carrasco in 2012 following Tommy John surgery, are hoping their relatively inexpensive $5 million investment in Lowe will result in the veteran returning to the solid form which saw him win 31 games in 2009-10.

The money saved in the trade leaves Atlanta with about $10 million to spend this offseason, writes mlb.com's Mark Bowman. The Braves could use upgrades at shortstop and left field, where Alex Gonzalez (.241/.270/.372) and Martin Prado (.260/.302/.385) struggled offensively. Gonzalez is a free agent and Prado will be needed to spell Chipper Jones at third base on occasion. Atlanta ranked 22nd in MLB in runs scored, and its outfield production was among the league's worst despite the mid-season acquisition of Michael Bourn. Among potential free agent options, Michael Cuddyer and Josh Willingham would both provide the power that Atlanta's outfield has consistently lacked (Jason Heyward returning to his 2010 form would help, too). At shortstop, Jose Reyes is out of Atlanta's price range, but Jimmy Rollins might not be. Signing the three-time All-Star would add speed and pop to a lineup sorely lacking both while simultaneously putting a dent in the rival Phillies.

]]>info@bizofbaseball.com (Rob Smith)Rob Smith Article ArchiveTue, 01 Nov 2011 13:22:51 +0000Rays Owner Sternberg Needs Suitor to Spur Stadium Negotiationshttp://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5436:rays-owner-sternberg-needs-suitor-to-spur-stadium-negotiations&catid=86:rob-smith&Itemid=198
http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5436:rays-owner-sternberg-needs-suitor-to-spur-stadium-negotiations&catid=86:rob-smith&Itemid=198The Tampa Bay Rays entered Friday's series opener against Toronto with a chance to cut their wild-card deficit to 1.5 games, but nobody in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area seems to care. Tropicana Field was literally half full, as just 18,093 Rays fans deemed the game and its accompanying playoff implications worthy of their time. That's even less than the 18,663 that the team has averaged this year, the second lowest total in MLB. It's a familiar sight for a franchise that has never attracted 2 million fans in a season, despite a World Series appearance in 2008 and an AL East division championship last season. Rays' owner Stuart Sternberg is understandably frustrated, and believes that a new home is the cure for his team's attendance ills. And if he doesn't get one, he's subtly threatening to move the team. There's just one problem.

The Rays have nowhere to go, and St. Petersburg mayor Bill Foster knows it. It's the reason why Foster has been so rigid in his stance that the team either continue playing at Tropicana Field or seek a new park elsewhere in Pinellas County. The team is handcuffed to The Trop (and St. Petersburg) by a lease that doesn't expire until 2027, and Foster knows that too. It's why he continues to forbid Rays owner Stuart Sternberg from exploring potential stadium sites across the bay in Tampa. Sternberg isn't opposed to a new ballpark in Pinellas County, but he refuses to enter such negotiations unless he is simultaneously allowed to explore sites in neighboring Hillsborough County (i.e. Tampa) as well. Sternberg and Foster are very publicly not speaking, and, given the leverage that Foster has, that fact will likely not change anytime soon. Unless...

Sternberg finds a suitor. And Tampa doesn't count. For one thing, there is nothing to indicate that attendance would be any better in Tampa than it is in St. Petersburg. The Bucs were blacked out locally for the entire 2010 season (in which they went 10-6) and the first two home games of 2011 because they were unable to sell enough tickets. If the city can't support a competitive NFL team for 8 games a season, why should anyone believe that it would support the Rays for 81? The lone result of a move to Tampa would be a nicer park, and maybe a slight bump in revenue from the luxury boxes that The Trop lacks. Conversely, Sternberg would have to throw in a considerable amount of his own money for a new ballpark, so it doesn't make much sense anyway.

He needs a San Antonio or a Charlotte to step up and come after him. A Portland or a Las Vegas. A city that is a real threat to the Rays' existence in the Tampa/St. Pete area altogether. Without that, Foster has no incentive to give into Sternberg's demands, and Sternberg has no choice but to continue to trim payroll and play in front of a half-empty stadium every night. It's a shame, too, because the Rays certainly deserve better.

The Rays are the type of team a stronger baseball market would wholeheartedly embrace. Want young, marketable superstars? David Price and Evan Longoria fit the bill. Outgoing, media-savvy (that's important these days) manager Joe Maddon is a likable, benign "baseball man" who's easy to root for. Executive vice president and de facto GM Andrew Friedman is considered one of the brightest young minds in the game, and has kept the team competitive despite having to work with the second-lowest payroll in MLB. It's scary to think how good the Rays could be if they had a little money to throw around, rather than a payroll roughly 1/5 the amount of Boston and New York's. Everything about this scrappy, understated bunch screams "Support us!", but it hasn't happened in St. Petersburg. It wouldn't happen in Tampa, either.

But if Sternberg is serious about getting a new stadium AND keeping the team in the Tampa/ St. Petersburg area, he needs one of those outsider cities to court him. In that case he either scares Foster into keeping the team in the area, as Sternberg prefers, or gets a sweetheart stadium deal in a city that would probably do a better job of supporting the team than its current one does.

But without a viable alternative, Sternberg and the Rays are stuck in the same downtrodden stadium in the same apathetic city.

]]>info@bizofbaseball.com (Rob Smith)Rob Smith Article ArchiveMon, 26 Sep 2011 13:37:53 +0000MLB's Stance on Mets Wearing NYPD/FDNY Hats Ignorant, Insensitivehttp://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5417:mlbs-stance-on-mets-wearing-nypdfdny-hats-ignorant-insensitive&catid=86:rob-smith&Itemid=198
http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5417:mlbs-stance-on-mets-wearing-nypdfdny-hats-ignorant-insensitive&catid=86:rob-smith&Itemid=198For this generation, Sept. 11, 2001, is a date that needs no further explanation. The enduring theme for me is the camaraderie and support that our nation showed for itself, strangers immediately becoming brothers and sisters united by the relation of 'American'. In the days leading up to the ten-year anniversary of 9/11, it was encouraging to see that cohesion return. For as much horror and grief as that day brought, it also ingrained in all of us a permanent sense of brotherhood which will never disappear.

Unfortunately, while the country understands the importance of honoring those who perished that day and celebrating their memory, MLB is outthinking itself. The New York Mets planned to wear hats honoring the first responders of the NYPD and FDNY in a game being played 10 miles from where the Twin Towers were knocked down a decade ago today. Bud Selig, however, didn't think this was such a good idea.

Citing the "need" to keep policy consistent throughout baseball, MLB denied the Mets' patriotic request. Former Met Todd Zeile, who was playing for the team when the attacks occurred, mentioned during the Sunday night national telecast that the 2001 Mets encountered opposition from the league when attempting to carry out a similar tribute shortly after the attacks. In that case, Zeile said, MLB told the players they could wear the hats during a pregame ceremony but would have to switch back to their generic league-mandated caps before the game started. Zeile and the rest of his teammates essentially told Selig to shove it, and they wore the first responders' hats anyway.

Joe Torre, MLB's Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations, told ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin of the reasoning behind the decision, "Certainly, it's not a lack of respect."

With all due respect to Torre and MLB, it's beyond that. It's a lack of humanity, intelligence, and awareness combined. A hodgepodge of stupidity. Apparently the intent of MLB's policy requiring strict adherence to its standard apparel is...well, I don't know what it is. It seemed like Torre was implying that if every team wasn't going to honor the city's first responders in such a poignant manner, nobody could.

That viewpoint doesn't make any sense, but there's still a solution for it: make EVERYONE wear NYPD/FDNY hats on Sept. 11. Every team, every coach, hell, even the umpires. This year, next year, and for as long as MLB continues to exist. For a game that calls itself "America's Pastime," this doesn't seem like an unreasonable request. See if anyone complains. Go ahead, I'll wait.

And if Selig and the rest of his office didn't want to impose mandates requiring teams to honor our country's fallen, the least he could've done was stay out of the way when the Mets tried to do so on their own accord. Instead, we get nonsensical decisions like this one.

Sept. 11, 2001, will always be a special day: for the hate it displayed, the heroism it exposed, and the national bond it inspired. Sept. 11, 2011 was supposed to be a day of remembrance, honoring, and reflection. And it still was, even if the ignorance pervading the MLB offices (which sit less than two miles from the footprint of the Towers) didn't realize it.

]]>info@bizofbaseball.com (Rob Smith)Rob Smith Article ArchiveMon, 12 Sep 2011 13:38:33 +0000NL Rookie of the Year a Two-Brave Racehttp://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5404:nl-rookie-of-the-year-a-two-brave-race&catid=86:rob-smith&Itemid=198
http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5404:nl-rookie-of-the-year-a-two-brave-race&catid=86:rob-smith&Itemid=198A sturdy farm system served as the foundation of the Atlanta Braves' run of fourteen straight division championships, which began in 1991. From the arrivals of Chipper and Andruw Jones in the mid-90s, to Rafael Furcal's ROY campaign in 2000, to Jason Heyward's breakout 2010, homegrown talent has been a cornerstone of the Braves franchise. This year has been more of the same.

So impressive has the duo been that they are likely the leading candidates for the NL Rookie of the Year Award.

Early in the season, with Jones slowed by injuries, Heyward and Dan Uggla mired in deep slumps (Heyward remains in his), and long before the additions of Michael Bourn and Jose Constanza added some much-needed speed to the Braves' lineup, Freeman played a huge role in keeping the offense afloat. Hitting just .222 with a .687 OPS entering play on May 8, the hulking lefty has been on a tear ever since. He enters Tuesday night's play sporting a .291/.353./.463 split. His .354 wOBA is 5th highest among NL rookies, and Freeman has more than twice as many at-bats as each of the 4 players in front of him. He's been excellent with the glove, too. Freeman has saved countless runs with his deft ability to handle errant throws from an infield including Jones and Uggla, 2 of the weaker defenders in MLB.

Kimbrel has been everything his brief 2010 cameo (during which he posted a 0.44 ERA in 20.2 IP) indicated he might be. His 40 saves lead all NL closers and is tied for the MLB rookie record, set by Rangers closer Neftali Feliz last season. His 3.2 WAR is highest among rookie pitchers, and nearly a full win higher than Josh Collmenter's 2.3. Kimbrel's 1.67 ERA trails only Philadelphia's Antonio Bastardo, who doesn't pitch in high-pressure 9th innings. Kimbrel has been unhittable in his last 33 appearances, posting a flawless 0.00 ERA in 32.3 IP with 57 Ks and and just 10 BBs. His high-90s fastball and devastating slider have proven a formidable foil for NL hitters.

Most baseball experts expected at least a slight dropoff in the Braves' bullpen when Wagner retired following a resurgent 2010. Atlanta simply replaced an aging, hard-throwing, undersized southpaw closer with a younger, right-handed version. Freeman, meanwhile, has been the only Braves' regular not named Brian McCann to avoid a prolonged slump or injury this season, providing reliable offense in a lineup that, until recently, was devoid

Regardless of which of the 2 rookies winds up winning the hardware, it's fair to say that the Braves would not be entrenched as the NL Wild Card leaders without the contributions of either. When the experts credit Uggla's monster second-half of the season and the Bourn trade for propelling Atlanta to another postseason berth, they aren't wrong. But it's important to remember that much of the Braves' success this year is attributable to 2 products of Atlanta's most reliable performer: its farm system.

]]>info@bizofbaseball.com (Rob Smith)Rob Smith Article ArchiveThu, 01 Sep 2011 13:49:40 +0000The Curious Career of Carlos Zambranohttp://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5380:the-curious-career-of-carlos-zambrano&catid=86:rob-smith&Itemid=198
http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5380:the-curious-career-of-carlos-zambrano&catid=86:rob-smith&Itemid=198Braves' second baseman Dan Uggla, he of the now-dormant 33-game hit streak, started Friday night's game with a homerun, and he may have ended Cubs' starter Carlos Zambrano's career with another.

In between, Zambrano gave up homers to Chipper Jones, Jose Constanza, and Freddie Freeman. It was all too much for the volatile Venezuelan to handle. Following Uggla's second homerun of the night, Zambrano intentionally threw at Jones on consecutive pitches, resulting in his ejection. But this wasn't your run-of-the-mill homerun-induced meltdown. The night got more interesting once Zambrano retreated to the Cubs' clubhouse.

Late Friday night, the Chicago Tribune's Paul Sullivan reported that Zambrano cleared out his locker and told friends he was retiring. If true, it would've been an amazingly bizarre way to end a career that once seemed destined for greatness. It now seems as though Zambrano's "retirement" was just another in a long line of childish tantrums thrown by the now-30-year-old pitcher. Zambrano's agent, Barry Praver, told ESPN's Buster Olney within 2 hours of the end of Friday's game that Zambrano was "definitely" not retiring. It appears the Cubs are no longer interested in his services, anyway. The team placed him on the Disqualified List, meaning Zambrano is suspended without pay for the next 30 days, during which he is not allowed to have contact with the team.

As a 22-year-old in 2003, Zambrano led the Cubs to within a game of the World Series, posting a 3.11 ERA in 214 innings. Over the next 5 seasons, he finished in the top-5 in NL Cy Young voting 3 times, was named to 3 NL All-Star teams, and was expected to serve as the Cubs' ace for the foreseeable future. Too often, unfortunately, his immaturity got in the way of his talented arm.

In 2007, Zambrano fought his own catcher, Michael Barrett, in the dugout after a poor first inning. Later that season, after being booed at home following a poor start, Zambrano said of the Cubs' fans, "They only care about themselves...I don't accept their reaction." In a 2009 game against the Pirates, after being ejected for arguing with the home plate umpire, Zambrano hurled the game ball into left field before putting the team's Gatorade machine on the DL (never a good thing when Milton Bradley is the voice of reason). Zambrano missed the team flight to Atlanta a week later. During the 2010 season, Zambrano got into another altercation in the dugout, this time with highly-regarded Cubs' first baseman Derrek Lee. That outburst led the Cubs to suspend Zambrano indefinitely and send him to anger management. It doesn't appear to have worked. The intra-clubhouse shenanigans continued into 2011, when Zambrano ripped closer Carlos Marmol after Marmol blew a save against the Cardinals. Friday's disgraceful outburst shouldn't have surprised anyone, but it's disappointing nonetheless.

So tired has Zambrano's act (which Fox's Tim McCarver referred to as "pathetic" during Saturday's national broadcast) grown that his own teammates are hesitant to stick up for him. "He's made his own bed, let him sleep in it. It's not like it's something new", quipped fellow Cubs starter Ryan Dempster. Long-time teammate Aramis Ramirez said, "He's got to think a little bit more. He's one man. It's not just one time. A lot of people have tried to help him. He won't let them." Even pitching coach Mark Riggins chimed in, noting, "For a player to leave a team, that's kind of just leaving us out there hanging and it seems like it's about him and it's not about the team...You just can't let your emotions get that far. We're professional people. We're supposed to be able to handle this, whatever comes our way. It's just disappointing." The damning blow may have come from GM Jim Hendry (the man ultimately responsible for deciding whether Zambrano stays or goes), who said, "There's not much worse than running out on your teammates and announcing your retirement."

Whether Zambrano ever pitches for the North Siders again is yet to be determined. The Cubs are on the hook for Zambrano's $18 million salary in 2012, and it's hard to imagine another team being interested in absorbing a high-maintenance headache like Zambrano, even if Chicago is willing to subsidize most of the money owed him. Despite Zambrano's tantalizing talent (2011 will be his first season with an ERA over 4), his unpredictable behavior renders him a problem child who isn't worth the trouble.

Lost in the shuffle of this whole retirement fiasco is how much money Zambrano has likely cost himself in the future. He probably doesn't need it, as 2012 will be the final season of a 5-year, $91 million contract that Zambrano signed in 2008. But the fact remains that the Braves gave Derek Lowe $60 million after a breakout 2008 season that wasn't much better statistically than any of Zambrano's performances from 2001-2010. The Yankees threw $82.5 million at A.J. Burnett coming off a 2008 season in which he posted a 4.07 ERA (Zambrano's career ERA is 3.60). Burnett was a year older then than Zambrano is now. In today's starting pitching-starved MLB, any other workhorse with Zambrano's numbers could command a blank check on the free agent market. Depending on how well Zambrano performs (and, more importantly, behaves) in 2012, he might struggle to find employment afterwards.

A decorated resume like Zambrano's is usually celebrated, then compensated. Sadly, unless he makes some serious and immediate behavioral adjustments, he'll likely be remembered more for his actions off the mound than on it.

The July 31st non-waiver trading deadline gets all of the attention from the baseball media, but by no means is it the last opportunity for teams to make trades during the season. Throughout the month of August, teams are permitted to continue trading players, with one caveat: all players involved in the deal who are on a team's 40-man roster must first clear waivers before moving on to a new team.

Most respectable big leaguers won't make it through waivers without being claimed by at least one team (the main reason why we typically don't see much movement after the July 31 non-waiver deadline), at which point the team who placed the player on waivers has the option of rescinding the waiver and retaining the player, working out a trade with the claiming team, or allowing the claiming team to simply acquire the player for no return consideration. While post-July 31 trades are not common, they're also not unheard of. Sometimes teams are just looking for any way to get out from an onerous contract or open up a spot for a young player who needs more seasoning. One example of this occurred last year, when the Marlins, looking to give since-departed centerfielder Cameron Maybin more at-bats, allowed the Giants to claim and acquire outfielder Cody Ross, who went on to be named NLCS MVP en route to helping San Francisco win the 2010 World Series. A year earlier, the White Sox acquired Alex Rios and his hefty contract from Toronto.

With that in mind, let's take a look at which big-name players might soon be changing addresses, and why.

- ESPN's Tim Kurkjian mentioned on Dan LeBatard's radio show last week that the Braves actively tried to rid themselves of some of the roughly $20 million owed to Lowe through the 2012 season by dealing him before July 31, but with no luck. Lowe hasn't done much to make GM Frank Wren reconsider that stance, yesterday's 2-run outing notwithstanding. Lowe, a reliable innings-eater throughout his career, hasn't gone deeper than 6 and 1/3 innings in any of his last 10 starts, and his 4.78 ERA and 1.48 WHIP has rendered him expendable in an organization rife with elite starting pitching at both the major and minor-league levels. Lowe could be attractive to other teams due to his tendency to improve his performance late in the season. Just last season, Lowe was mired in a similarly mediocre season before reeling off a 5-win September and posting a 2.31 ERA in his 2 starts against the Giants in the NLDS. In 2008, his final year with the Dodgers, Lowe went 5-1 with a 0.94 ERA over his final 9 starts while leading Los Angeles to the NLCS. His 3.15 September ERA (103 starts) and 3.21 postseason ERA might be appealing enough to starting pitching-starved teams like the Red Sox or Yankees to look past what most teams would consider a prohibitive price tag. As Mark Bowman mentioned in the previously-linked article, Lowe was the winning pitcher in each of Boston's series-clinching wins during their 2004 World Series run.

2. Vlad Guerrero, Baltimore Orioles DH

- Guerrero will be a free agent after this season, and he's currently languishing on an Orioles team that finds itself no less than 26 games out of first. The Orioles would be better served giving his at-bats to younger players, and moving to a contender would present Guerrero with a better chance of boosting his stock before hitting free agency this winter. Guerrero is owed about $2.7 million for the rest of the season, and at this point in his career is strictly a DH, limiting his list of potential suitors to AL teams. The Angels didn't make any moves at the July 31 deadline, but they currently sit just 1.5 games behind Texas in the AL West. Mike Trout has predictably struggled in his short stint, and Bobby Abreu seems to have lost his power. Guerrero isn't the hitter he once was, but he would be a welcome presence in a lineup that has produced the second-fewest runs in the AL.

3. Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox CF

- Chicago should be looking to get rid of Rios in the same way in which they acquired him, by dealing him after he passes through waivers. A trade would have to be worked out, as no team is crazy enough to take on that monstrosity of a contract ($38 million owed through 2014) without receiving significant cash considerations. Still, Rios is only a season removed from posting a .791 OPS and stealing 34 bases, and is relatively young at age 30. The Marlins have an unsettled outfield situation, with 38-year-old Mike Cameron and his .170 batting average currently manning centerfield and no impressive outfield prospects left on the farm (don't tell me Chris Coghlan, either). Assuming the White Sox are willing to eat a lot of money, a low-pressure situation like Florida's (where his contract wouldn't be criticized as vehemently as it is in a baseball hotbed like Chicago) would be an ideal destination for Rios as the team moves into a new stadium in 2012. He still possesses enough upside to make it worth the Marlins' while.

- Trading Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence for prospects who are years from contributing to the big-league club is a clear indication that Houston does not expect to compete for a playoff spot for at least a few years. Lee, 35, is owed about $25 million through the end of the 2012 season, and does not figure into the team's long-term plans. He's a shell of the player who came to Houston in 2007 and put up consecutive seasons of .882, .937, and .831 OPS'. However, he hasn't been completely sapped of the power that made him one of the premier power hitters of the past decade. Arizona and San Francisco are separated by just a half game for the NL West lead, and both teams have gotten below-average production at first base. Lee might just provide enough pop to propel either one past the other down the stretch run.

With the July 31 trade deadline approaching, the New York Mets will be fielding calls regarding a few of their top players from teams around the league. A Buster Olney tweet earlier today indicates that their most coveted asset, star shortstop Jose Reyes, won't be going anywhere. If the organization is indeed set on keeping (and presumably, re-signing) Reyes, they will almost certainly be trading his teammate, right fielder Carlos Beltran. The 34-year-old Beltran has rebounded nicely from an injury-plagued 2010 and will have his share of suitors both at the trade deadline and in the offseason when his 7-year, $119 million contract expires. However, due to a multitude of factors in play, the Mets need to make sure their asking price for the six-time All-Star isn't so high that they scare off interested teams and wind up having to hold onto Beltran for the rest of the season.

Normally, when a player of Beltran's caliber becomes a free agent, the team that he finished the season with has the option of offering that player arbitration. "Type-A" free agents (which Beltran will be) will usually decline arbitration, become a free-agent, and seek a long-term deal with another team. The team that initially offered arbitration receives the first-round pick of the player's new team (unless that team finished in the bottom half of the MLB standings, in which case the new team forfeits their 2nd-round pick instead) as well as a "sandwich" pick which comes immediately after the first round of the draft concludes, as a sort of severance package. One by-product of this rule is that when teams are looking to deal premier players in the final year of their contracts, they'll dangle the impending high draft picks in front of interested teams as an excuse to demand more talent from those teams in any trade. Clubs trading FOR said rent-a-player don't mind because at the end of the season, THEY'RE the ones who can restock their farm system with a couple extra high draft picks.

How does any of this boring CBA talk relate to Beltran? You've probably heard of his agent, Scott Boras. On Tuesday, Olney wrote (must be an ESPN Insider to read entire article) that when Beltran signed with the Mets following the 2004 season, Boras successfully negotiated a clause into the deal which stated that when the contract expired, there would be no draft pick compensation tied to Beltran's departure. Thus, any team trading for Beltran won't have the extra draft picks at their disposal when the 2012 draft rolls around. It also means that the Mets shouldn't receive as much talent as they normally could in exchange for a player with an .856 career OPS like Beltran.

Instead of asking for a less-talented package in return for their star outfielder, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports that the Mets are offering to pay the $8 million or so owed to Beltran for the rest of the 2011 season. The caveat is that while the acquiring team gets a half season of Beltran for free, the Mets want a bevy of young talent; the type of productive, cheap labor that MLB teams cling to these days. It's an intriguing, yet dangerous strategy. The Mets probably figure that the $8 million giveaway will be made back by filling roster spots next year with the cheap, minimum-salary contracts acquired in the trade, as opposed to overpaying for free agents like they normally do (e.g. Jason Bay).

New York has to be careful here, though, and make sure that they don't overplay their hand. Asking for the farm on July 19 is one thing, but everyone in baseball should be fully aware that the financially-strapped Mets can't afford to pay Beltran for the rest of the season AND get nothing in return for him once he bolts. They have to get rid of Beltran by the deadline, and they're counting on the time-tested principle of supply and demand to convince somebody to cough up the stud prospects they want before somebody else does. The longer they wait, though, the possibility of getting low-balled becomes more and more real. This isn't a situation where the Mets want to play "chicken" with other teams. The Red Sox, Yankees, Braves, Giants, etc. can move forward without Beltran. The Mets can't set themselves up for future success by holding onto him. My advice: get a solid, young starting pitcher (think Atlanta's Brandon Beachy, San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner, or Philadelphia's Vance Worley) and be done with it. In the trading deadline game of musical chairs, the Mets can't afford to be left with Beltran on the roster when the music stops at 4 p.m. on July 31.

]]>info@bizofbaseball.com (Rob Smith)Rob Smith Article ArchiveThu, 21 Jul 2011 13:06:02 +0000MLB Trade Deadline Buyers: AL Editionhttp://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5343:mlb-trade-deadline-buyers-al-edition&catid=86:rob-smith&Itemid=198
http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5343:mlb-trade-deadline-buyers-al-edition&catid=86:rob-smith&Itemid=198Yesterday, Rob looked at those in the National League that could be buyers at the trade deadline. Today, he looks at the American League – Maury Brown

The American League playoff chase is playing out similarly to the race in the National League: two teams in the East fighting for the league's top record, a 4-team cluster in the Central, and a 55-56 win team trailed by 3-4 games in the West. Eight teams in the NL have a realistic shot at a playoff berth, whereas the AL has 9 teams in the hunt. Today, we'll look at the needs of those contenders, and which pieces they might add to put themselves in position to play in October.

1) Boston Red Sox

Needs: SP, RF

- The best offense in baseball doesn't need a whole lot of tinkering. Boston's team OPS is a ridiculously high .812, and that's with Carl Crawford struggling before missing the last month. Once he returns, fill-in Josh Reddick (.357 AVG, 1.043 OPS) might take at bats from the regressing J.D. Drew (.225 AVG, .637 OPS). Drew and Darnell McDonald have both been pretty awful, and GM Theo Epstein might want to bring in a veteran outfielder in case Reddick is unable to keep up his red-hot pace. Pirates' outfielder Matt Diaz has always hit lefties well, and a team featuring Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, and Jacoby Ellsbury will certainly see a lot of lefty specialists in late-game situations. If Boston wants to aim higher, switch-hitting Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran would look good in right field. The underwhelming starting rotation needs a jolt. John Lackey has been a colossal disappointment since signing with the Sox before the 2010 season, leaving Jon Lester and Josh Beckett as the only two reliable starters. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick recently tweeted that the Braves are "willing to listen" to offers for Derek Lowe, and the Red Sox would seem to be a good fit. Lowe has always been a second-half pitcher, and thrived in his previous stint in Boston. Atlanta probably wouldn't ask for much in return if Boston is willing to eat about half of the $22 million or so owed to Lowe through the 2012 season, as he likely wouldn't crack the Braves' playoff rotation and his departure would give Atlanta some payroll flexibility. $11 million for a season and a half of Lowe isn't a bad deal when you're paying Lackey $16 million a year. The Red Sox have already kicked the tires on Ubaldo Jimenez and Hiroki Kuroda.

2) New York Yankees

Needs: SP, OF

- The Yanks will probably try to get in on Lowe or Jimenez, too. Considering Bartolo Colon's recent return to mediocrity, the rotation is paper-thin after C.C. Sabathia. I can't see the Yanks adding any less than 2 starting pitchers, for the simple fact that GM Brian Cashman would be ill-advised to trust the fate of their season in the hands of Colon, A.J. Burnett (and his 5.67 postseason ERA), or Freddy Garcia. A reunion with Royals outfielder Melky Cabrera would be shrewd, with Andruw Jones appearing to be near the end of the road. Alex Rodriguez went on the DL recently, and Alex Gordon's ability to play outfield and both corner infield spots would come in handy. Gordon wouldn't come cheap, either in prospects or arbitration following the season, but the Yankees are in perpetual win-now mode and have never hesitated to deal prospects or spend a little extra cash for the sake of chasing another title. Expect an addition to the bullpen as well, as Rafael Soriano has been injured for a while now and didn't exactly light the league on fire when he was healthy. Manager Joe Girardi will want to keep the workloads of David Robertson and Mariano Rivera to a minimum if he can help it. San Diego's Chad Qualls and Luke Gregerson would both be useful pickups.

3) Tampa Bay Rays

Needs: RP, Bench

- Any team that has Kyle Farnsworth closing games has serious bullpen problems, even if he's done a nice job so far this year. His 4.28 career ERA suggests that this year's 1.89 is an aberration. The Rays have been linked to Colby Rasmus, and B.J. Upton's latest failure to hustle Monday night might be enough to punch his ticket out of town. Rasmus probably needs to get out of St. Louis, and a straight-up Upton-for-Rasmus deal could benefit both teams. With Desmond Jennings waiting in the wings at AAA, the Rays might prefer to trade Upton for some much-needed relief. Upton's natural ability and relative youth is still attractive to a number of teams, and the Marlins are expected to send closer Leo Nunez packing. Nunez will be likely be a "Type A" free agent following this season, allowing the Rays to add to their already-stacked farm system if and when Nunez signed elsewhere. Struggling Orioles DH Vladimir Guerrero would be a solid bat to bring off the bench, assuming Baltimore is willing to eat most of the $4 million owed to him for the rest of the 2011 season.

4) Cleveland Indians

Needs: 2B, SP

- Nobody saw Cleveland contending for the AL Central, but unexpected performances from the starting rotation and bullpen have the Indians leading Detroit by a game for the division lead.Orlando Cabrerahas been terrible at the plate, posting a .610 OPS. Dodgers' utilityman Jamey Carroll's ability to play three different infield positions would be valuable, especially considering the struggles endured by rookie Lonnie Chisenhall at the hot corner. Ty Wigginton's pop and versatility is useful enough to ignore his defensive shortcomings. The rotation has overachieved, but it still isn't playoff-caliber. Houston's Wandy Rodriguez would be a nice fit. A Lowe-for-Grady Sizemore trade would benefit both Cleveland and Atlanta. Sizemore's once-promising career has been derailed by injuries, and the Tribe might be ready to give Michael Brantley the full-time duties. Lowe, meanwhile, would bring a playoff-tested veteran presence that Cleveland's rotation currently lacks. The Braves make this trade because Sizemore is still a productive player when healthy, and his considerable upside is worth giving up their $15 million number four starter for.

5) Detroit Tigers

Needs: 3B, SP

-Brandon Inge is 1 for his last 27, and needs to be replaced at third base ASAP. Florida's Greg Dobbs and Carroll would be upgrades. In a perfect world, Cubs' third baseman Aramis Ramirez would drop his no-trade clause, but he continues to refuse to do so. That defense scares me, and GM Dave Dombrowski might want to look for a late-inning, glove-first replacement or two. Other than Inge and center fielder Austin Jackson, the Tigers' lineup is defensively-challenged. Staff ace Justin Verlander is a prototypical number one starter, but the rest of the rotation sports ERAs in the mid-fours with high WHIPs (Walks + Hits/ Innings Pitched). Detroit is reportedly interested in Lowe, and the staff's mediocre performances have essentially forced Dombrowski to make a move.

6) Chicago White Sox

Needs: 3B, SP

- I get that Ramirez won't waive the no-trade clause because he doesn't want to uproot his wife and kids, and this would give him an opportunity to stay home and still contend for a playoff spot. The Sox' home at U.S. Cellular Field is a 10-mile drive from Ramirez' current home, Wrigley Field, and his arrival would mercifully relegate the overmatched Brent Morel to a reserve role. Alex Rios and Adam Dunn don't deserve to continue playing, but their contracts probably ensure that they will. Jake Peavy was supposed to be the ace who would anchor the staff, but his inability to stay healthy has left a gaping void at the top of the rotation. The thin starting pitching market has a lot of band-aids, but no real cures. Even if they add an arm (and they should), Chicago's fate will likely rest on whether Rios and Dunn can regain their past all-star form and allow the South Siders to simply out-hit their opponents. Kenny Williams isn't afraid to pull the trigger on a blockbuster, though, so don't be surprised if he makes a big move in the next week and a half.

7) Minnesota Twins

Needs: SS, RP

- It's hard to believe we're even talking about the Twins when one considers the fact that they've gotten just about nothing from franchise cornerstones Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Francisco Liriano. When Denard Span and Jason Kubel return from their rehab assignments, Minnesota will add a couple of productive bats. The pitching staff is a bit of a train wreck. The Twins have the 6th highest ERA in baseball, and now Scott Baker, the team's de facto ace, is injured. I don't see this team staying in contention for the Central much longer, but if they plan to, they need to upgrade the shortstop position immediately. The Tsuyoshi Nishioka experiment is officially a failure, but the alternatives are limited. Most teams not in the playoff picture have young shortstops who are integral parts of those teams' future plans, and the others aren't worth acquiring.

8) Texas Rangers

Needs: RP, SP

- The defending AL champions are stacked up and down the lineup, so don't expect any movement there. Outside of closer Neftali Feliz, the pitching staff has more holes than Denzel Washington at the end of Training Day. I wouldn't feel comfortable sending anyone in their rotation other than C.J. Wilson to the mound in a playoff game. ESPN Top-100 prospect Jurickson Profar's path is blocked by all-star shortstop Elvis Andrus, so the team might dangle Profar in the hopes of acquiring an ace, similar to the fashion in which they traded Justin Smoak last year in order to pick up Cliff Lee for their deep playoff run. Unfortunately for the Rangers, nobody of Lee's caliber is on the market this year. Jimenez is their best shot at a premier starter, but nobody is entirely sure that Colorado is actually shopping him and the Rockies have their own shortstop under contract through the 2020 season. In the pen, Arthur Rhodes is finally beginning to pitch like the 41-year-old man he is. Nunez would be a good 8th-inning option for manager Ron Washington.

9) Los Angeles Angels

Needs: OF/DH, 3B

- This team has the frontline starting pitching to shut down the high-powered lineups of New York and Boston, but they'll have to figure out a way to score some runs in the process. Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, and Bobby Abreu are all on the downside of their careers. The hope in the organization is that recently called-up uber-prospect Mike Trout, who ESPN's Keith Law ranked as the number one prospect in baseball entering this season, is ready to contribute in a big way. Those are some big expectations to throw on the shoulders of a teenager. I'd like to see a reunion with Guerrero. He was immensely productive in his previous stint in Anaheim (they play in Anaheim, not Los Angeles; enough with the LA nonsense), and is exactly the type of run-producer that their lineup lacks. I'm not a huge fan of Alberto Callaspo, or anyone whose on-base percentage is higher than their slugging percentage for that matter. If the Mets decide to commit to Jose Reyes long-term, they might be willing to listen to offers for David Wright. The Angels have a slew of promising arms that the Mets would covet, and rookie Tyler Chatwood would assuredly be part of any potential deal for Wright. I don't see this move happening, but I also can't see the Angels beating out Texas for the West without making drastic changes to their lineup