Is the Dow Forked?

When doing technical analysis, I take into consideration event-driven data
points as they usually include extreme emotion, which puts a figurative exclamation
point on the chart reference. Continuing our recent theme of "big picture" monthly
charts, we see the Dow from event #1 (crash of '87) to #2 (major bull market
top) through #3 (cyclical bear market bottom) and on to the current and ongoing
inflation rally. This is a somewhat pathetic picture of the mighty Dow clinging
to life (with "life" defined as the ability/willingness of the bond market,
global carry trades, foreign creditors and various automated black boxes to
keep the liquidity coming). Those bears who have not yet been blown up may
see a chart like this and take heart.

Then there is the S&P 500. Nope, nothing wrong here although the SPX is
approaching major resistance from the 2000 top however. It is worth noting
that the healthier looking SPX (from a risk/reward standpoint) is more broadly
representative of the US economy than the narrow Dow 30.

So what conclusions are to be drawn from the above? None really. This is just
another view of a market that demands successful investors and traders be tuned
to all time frames and possibilities. My view remains that the markets remain
in high risk territory. A look at the weekly VIX chart supports the idea that
stocks are running on borrowed (pun intended) time and that risk vs. reward
is way out of whack. VIX has snuck out of the falling wedge and thus far held
support.

Of course, the majority of the financial services apparatus led by the Wall
Street fife and drum corps, will keep marching bullishly forward until one
day the picture changes and the herd is forced to do what it always does; sell
low.

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