39 Seats Away: Republicans Hungry to Take Back the House

Expectations of a 2010 GOP tsunami have peaked in the days after the primaries, but the essential question is still up for debate: will Republicans takecontrol
ofthe House of Representatives? The House is widely viewed as vulnerable, and Republicans are
aggressively positioning themselves to pull off a political coup, with Representative John Boehner angling to become Speaker of the House. Democrats, for
their part, have amassed a sizable financial advantage and appear to be
hoping the ideological divide between Tea Partiers and the traditional
Republican establishment will send independent voters back to
the president's party. Pollsters and data-crunching pundits weigh in
with their (early) November prognostications.

The GOP Goal Is Certainly Within Reach Of the fifty House races that NPR political editor Ken Rudin deems
"most significant," forty-six of them currently feature incumbent
Democrats, many of which were swept into power during the anti-Bush,
anti-Republican elections of 2006 and 2008. That trend has almost
certainly been reversed: "Democrats are in trouble all over the map"
and this year seems to echo 1994 and 2006 in that one party is
"overwhelmingly" at risk in November.

The Republican Advantage Continues to Widen The latest CQ-Roll Call survey
finds, "an environment that continues to worsen for Democrats and new
race ratings to reflect Republicans on the ascent." More specifically,
writes Kyle Trygstad at Congressional Quarterly, it's telling that
nearly all of the campaign dollars spent by Democrats will be on
districts that they are trying to hold, not pick up.

Democrats Will Keep the Housepredicts
Reid Wilson at Hotline. Despite the rumblings of a "Democratic
apocalypse" the party is actually in relatively good shape in the
lead-up to November. There are four reasons why: 1) Money: The
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has almost twice as much
cash on hand than its GOP equivalent. 2) Turnout: Money brings
advertisements and these can lead to early voting, which can mitigate
Republican gains on election day. 3) Opposition Research: Reid believes
the Democrats have an "unprecedented" dirt-digging team that can drive
GOP negatives "through the roof." 4) Modeling: Right now, expectations
are too high for the Republicans and the presumption of victory may
drive down the margin of gains.

The Enthusiasm Gap Is the Differencenote
Politico reporters Jim Vandehei, Alex Isentadt and Mike Allen."Two
different sets of data show Republicans with a big advantage when it
comes to getting the base fired up for this campaign. A new Gallup Poll
out this week shows 46 percent of Republicans and just 23 percent of
Democrats to be 'very enthusiastic' about voting." They also report that
nearly 3 million more Republicans than Democrats have showed up to the
polls this primary season, which doesn't bode well for election day this
November.

The GOP Will Win, But Won't Know What to Do Aftergrumbles
Jay Bookman at The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "There's a decent
chance that the Dems could indeed lose the House. And I think the
consequences of that would be dire both for the country and, perhaps
surprisingly, for the Republican Party." The problem, he concurs, is
that the Republicans who are likely to get elected aren't the type who
value compromise. "Their base has given them no room whatsoever in which
to manuever, and they know it...The situation will make the
Gingrich-Clinton standoff seem calm placid by comparison."

This article is from the archive of our partner The Wire.

We want to hear what you think about this article. Submit a letter to the editor or write to letters@theatlantic.com.