Monday, March 7, 2016

Richmond Marathon 2015 Results Analysis

Apparently Anthem Richmond Marathon is America's Friendliest Marathon. How does a marathon get to be the friendliest? Did they take a survey, or do they just fancy themselves to be as such? I'm still trying to figure out how a marathon is friendly. Spectators? Good organization? I say it's friendly if the spectators don't spit on you and try to trip you!

This is kind of how I feel about San Diego calling itself America's Finest City (I've lived here 9 years). Who decided that? I don't know, seems rather presumptuous.

But I digress.

This race's results for 2015 appear to be following the trend we were seeing before MCM and NYCM spoiled the party ;-)

AG Group

2014 Qualifiers

2014 AG Total

Percentage

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

117

1152

10.16%

87

1030

8.45%

F35-39

37

468

7.91%

38

402

9.45%

F40-44

42

448

9.38%

29

355

8.17%

F45-49

32

278

11.51%

32

266

12.03%

F50-54

15

164

9.15%

25

166

15.06%

F55-59

11

91

12.09%

17

80

21.25%

F60-64

6

28

21.43%

4

24

16.67%

F65-69

2

6

33.33%

2

10

20.00%

F70-74

1

2

50.00%

1

5

20.00%

F75-79

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

M18-34

80

802

9.98%

69

674

10.24%

M35-39

18

348

5.17%

25

305

8.20%

M40-44

41

406

10.10%

21

310

6.77%

M45-49

36

355

10.14%

33

310

10.65%

M50-54

25

261

9.58%

22

264

8.33%

M55-59

22

152

14.47%

23

173

13.29%

M60-64

16

81

19.75%

13

85

15.29%

M65-69

10

35

28.57%

7

28

25.00%

M70-74

2

18

11.11%

2

17

11.76%

M75-79

0

3

0.00%

0

6

0.00%

M80+

0

0

0.00%

0

1

0.00%

Totals

513

5098

10.06%

450

4511

9.98%

Fewer finishers, lower qualification rate, fewer qualifiers. 12.28% fewer qualifiers, though in this race that only accounts for about 60 qualification spots. I'm guessing we're not going to see much more than a second or so decrease in the cutoff with a race this small.

Margin

2014

Percentage

2015

Percentage

<1 minute

33

6.43%

29

6.44%

1-2 minutes

40

7.80%

28

6.22%

2-3 minutes

34

6.63%

38

8.44%

3-4 minutes

30

5.85%

22

4.89%

4-5 minutes

24

4.68%

18

4.00%

5-10 minutes

116

22.61%

99

22.00%

10-20 minutes

140

27.29%

114

25.33%

20> minutes

96

18.71%

102

22.67%

Totals

513

450

And I'm sounding like a broken record here, but Squeaker Pack is smaller, though this race compared to the others we've seen so far has one of the the largest under 5 minute groups. In 2014 it was 31.38%. In 2015, ts shrank a bit to 30% even.

Alright, moving onto the totals.

AG Group

2014 Qualifiers

2014 AG Total

Percentage

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

2244

29220

7.68%

2045

28091

7.28%

F35-39

982

11383

8.63%

967

11353

8.52%

F40-44

995

10774

9.24%

943

10474

9.00%

F45-49

983

7422

13.24%

940

7716

12.18%

F50-54

587

4874

12.04%

641

5165

12.41%

F55-59

331

2459

13.46%

314

2440

12.87%

F60-64

145

1015

14.29%

151

1058

14.27%

F65-69

44

324

13.58%

48

349

13.75%

F70-74

9

96

9.38%

9

106

8.49%

F75-79

1

23

4.35%

1

18

5.56%

F80+

1

3

33.33%

1

6

16.67%

M18-34

1955

26327

7.43%

1790

24712

7.24%

M35-39

964

14040

6.87%

984

13398

7.34%

M40-44

1134

15100

7.51%

1087

14139

7.69%

M45-49

1311

11979

10.94%

1251

11963

10.46%

M50-54

1064

9382

11.34%

962

9381

10.25%

M55-59

635

5418

11.72%

649

5638

11.51%

M60-64

406

2814

14.43%

431

2858

15.08%

M65-69

183

1160

15.78%

168

1190

14.12%

M70-74

54

407

13.27%

49

411

11.92%

M75-79

8

102

7.84%

11

117

9.40%

M80+

0

19

0.00%

2

28

7.14%

Totals

14036

154341

9.09%

13444

150611

8.93%

Looks very similar to the last totals we did after Monumental.

Margin

2014

Percentage

2015

Percentage

<1 minute

884

6.30%

772

5.74%

1-2 minutes

847

6.03%

782

5.82%

2-3 minutes

790

5.63%

697

5.18%

3-4 minutes

709

5.05%

670

4.98%

4-5 minutes

658

4.69%

552

4.11%

5-10 minutes

2907

20.71%

2806

20.87%

10-20 minutes

3746

26.69%

3716

27.64%

20> minutes

3495

24.90%

3449

25.65%

Totals

14036

13444

2014 Squeaker Pack: 27.70%
2015 Squeaker Pack: 25.83%

Onto the prediction calculation.

In 2014, the numbers of runners achieving the 2016 cutoff of 147 seconds for the races analyzed was 11922.

Looking at 2015, taking the 11922th runner and sorting on margin, descending, we get the following:

117 seconds or 1:57 seconds

Not too surprising: we have a very small decrease in cutoff prediction. Next race to analyze is Philly and I believe that's a good sized race so it may prove to be a more interesting update.

3 comments:

Chacha, just found your blog today. This whole BQ thing is such a cluster for those of us in the "squeaker pack", so your data is much appreciated. I'm running Wrightsville Beach on March 20 and am targeting a BQ+5 min pace, hoping I strike the right balance between not leaving time on the table but still fast enough to qualify. After seeing your data, I'm going to keep my planned pace as is. Thanks again!!