General Sir David Richards: Forces reach 'turning point' in Afghanistan

British forces could be pulled out of Afghanistan within five years, the head
of the Army, General Sir David Richards, has disclosed.

General Sir David RichardsPhoto: CON COUGHLIN

By Con Coughlin, in Helmand

9:00PM GMT 26 Feb 2010

Sir David said they have reached a “turning point” in the battle against the Taliban. He suggested troop numbers could begin to decline as early as next year while the majority would be withdrawn by 2015.

He gave the upbeat assessment just seven months after warning the Britain’s mission in Afghanistan could last for up to 40 years. Last summer he said the army’s role would evolve but Britain would be providing governance, development or security for three or four decades.

“We expect the military conflict to trail off in 2011,” said Sir David, who was visiting British front-line forces for the first time since taking command of the Army last year. “The combat role will start to decline in 2011, but we will remain militarily engaged in training and support roles for another five years, and we will remain in a support role for many years to come.

He welcomed the extra resources that had been made available by the government, but admitted that British forces had been deprived of key equipment for several years. “We have been holding our own in very hard circumstances for years,” he said. “Now for the first time we have the resources we have been seeking.”

Sir David also conceded that mounting pressure from the public to withdraw British forces from Helmand was “a recognition that we were not getting it right. If we get it right the pressure will diminish rapidly.”

And he warned of the dangers of failure in Afghanistan. “I do not think we can afford to fail in Afghanistan because of the intoxicating effect failure will have on those militants who oppose democracy and our freedoms.

“The Taliban is now beginning to realise that they can lose this war, which was not the view they had a year ago. We have to reinforce the view that they can, and will, be beaten.”

Sir David was speaking as Nato intelligence sources revealed that hundreds of middle-ranking Taliban commanders were giving serious consideration to laying down their weapons to enter the reconciliation programme being run by the Afghan government. A combination of the continuing heavy losses Taliban fighters have sustained, and the payments offered by the multi-million pound “Peace and Re-Integration Fund” that was set up following last month’s London conference on Afghanistan has given many Taliban fighters second thoughts about continuing their struggle.

“The Taliban divides between the reconcilables and the irreconcilables,” said a senior Nato official. “We estimate that around 400 of the Taliban’s 750 middle-ranking commanders are seriously considering laying down their arms because of the pressure they are under.”

But Nato officials acknowledged that there is a “hard core” of Taliban fighters who will never surrender. They intend to destroy “irreconcilable” Taliban elements by launching “industrial special forces” operations, and increased missile strikes by unmanned Predator aircraft.

British and American officers have reported several instances in recent weeks of Taliban fighters offering to renounce the insurgency during Operation Moshtarak.

“We are now seeing some very optimistic signs,” said Sir David. “A year ago the Taliban thought they had us on the run, but now the tables have been turned. They are under relentless pressure and they are now having some serious thoughts about continuing the fight. We have every confidence we can prevail.”

A third British serviceman died in as many days yesterday when he was killed by an explosion.

The soldier was caught in a blast near a checkpoint in Nad-e-Ali. Next of kin have been informed.

An airman killed in an explosion on Wednesday night was named as Senior Aircraftman Luke Southgate, from Bury St Edmunds, who died just 14 days short of his 21st birthday. He was caught in an explosion north of Kandahar Airfield.