MISSILE SALES 'GROWING THREAT'

The U.S. intelligence community warned Thursday that proliferation of medium-range ballistic missiles, driven primarily by sales from North Korea, presents an "immediate, serious and growing threat" to U.S. forces and allies and has "significantly altered" the strategic balances in the Middle East and Asia.

The unexpectedly dire assessment by the National Intelligence Council also warns for the first time that rogue nations developing ballistic missiles will seek to build systems to jam, evade or overwhelm potential U.S. anti-missile defense systems. It adds that Russia and China "probably" will sell their own counter-measure technology to other countries.

The report thus provides strong ammunition to both sides in the contentious political debate over whether the United States should build national or regional anti-missile systems. Missile defense supporters cite the threat from North Korea as justification, while critics predict the systems will never work and could spark a new arms race.

Although the number of nuclear-armed missiles capable of striking the United States has decreased since the Cold War, the report says the world has grown less secure because missile technology has spread to unpredictable regimes such as North Korea and Iran. Such states may threaten to use missiles as a means of diplomatic blackmail, rather than for warfare.

"It feels more dangerous because there are so many more factors," a senior intelligence official said during a briefing at CIA headquarters, where a 16-page unclassified version of the report was released Thursday. He said the probability that a missile armed with a nuclear, chemical or biological weapon will be used against U.S. forces or interests is "higher today than during most of the Cold War."

The report concludes that the United States will "most likely" face ballistic missile threats over the next 15 years from Russia, China and North Korea, "probably" from Iran and "possibly" from Iraq.

It said Russia, which now has about 1,000 strategic ballistic missiles and 4,500 nuclear warheads, "will continue to be the most robust and lethal" threat. But it said Russia's nuclear force is expected to decrease dramatically, far below limitations set by arms control treaties, due to severe budgetary constraints.

China, which now has about 20 intercontinental ballistic missiles, is expected to have "tens of missiles" capable of targeting the United States by 2015.

The intelligence official said there is no evidence, including China's first test last month of the solid-fueled, mobile DF-31 intercontinental missile, that Beijing is seeking a first-strike capability. Chinese policy calls for a nuclear force that could survive a nuclear strike and launch a counterattack, thus serving as a deterrent.

The Stalinist regime in North Korea, however, remains the greatest concern.

More immediately, U.S. negotiators attending talks this week in Berlin are trying to persuade North Korea not to test a new intercontinental ballistic missile, called the Taepodong 2, that is deemed ready for launch. Washington wants North Korea to freeze or phase out its ballistic missile development, testing and sales.