Observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country, Venezuela, with some serendipity about the world (orchids, techs, science, investments, politics) at large. A famous Venezuelan, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, referred to oil as the devil's excrement. For countries, easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure. Venezuela might be a clear example of that.

Blog Stats

Dreaming of Possible Scenarios For Venezuela in 2012: An imaginary Tale

July 23, 2011

I find it amazing how little written speculation there is about Venezuela’s future. All of the roads to the December 2012 election are routine, normal, ordinary. As if Chavez’ illness had not been an incredible attempt at black swanning us. But given the magnitude of the surprise, I think it is time to be what scientists call “orthogonal”, thinking outside the box. Imagine for one moment it is April 1993, Oswaldo Alvarez Paz just won the primary, he will be the next President of Venezuela, which did not happen, a dark horse called Rafael Caldera came back to the country in July of the same year and took it all. Or think 1998, Irene Saez leading the pack in April of that same year, Hugo Chavez a lone traveler with less than 5% of the preferences, another dark horse that came and won.

In that spirit, seventeen months before, not eight like in those cases, here is my fantasy, trying to really think out of the box, let’s call it:

Henri I, President of Venezuela

As I sit here being sworn in as the next President of Venezuela, hand raised in the Capitol building of Caracas, I can’t help but think of the circumstances that took me here. Who would have ever imagined I would get here in such a convoluted and random way. But I guess that persistence pays off in politics. Three years ago I was dead for Presidential politics in Venezuela, today, I stand here. Amazing!

But to understand how I got here, you have to go back to June 2011, I was trying to fend off corruption charges at the time, working the contacts, when all of a sudden we learned that Hugo had cancer. To this date, we have no idea what he had or has. All we know is that he went on a pilgrimage from Havana to Sao Paulo, looking thinner, saying he was better, cancer free and ready for Patria and Socialismo, but not for muerte. And we believed him.

Meanwhile the LODO association, also known as the MUD, went about its business, selecting a candidate in February 2012. It was a tight race, Maria Corina really poured it on, Viene Maria and Maria Corina Nos Quiere Governar signs seeded Venezuela. Even Chavista outposts in the most remote regions of Venezuela had the signs.

Meanwhile, Leopoldo Lopez tried to jump into the race, but even if the CIDH ruled in his favor, Tibisay from the Electoral Board, the CNE, said CIDH was a four letter word in her dictionary. Thus, Leopoldo was left with his curls ready for the race (get it? crespos hechos). But nothing doing, Tibisay dixit.

Thus, neither the virginal, nor the resuscitated managed to dislodge Henrique Capriles from the front running position he held since late 2010. Thanks to the Government trying to ban him, a positive image in Miranda and a well run campaign, Capriles benefited from the voters desire not to lose, getting 45% of the vote in the six man (or mixed) primary race, as Venezuelans were getting ready to enjoy their Carnival 2012 vacation. The race was now well defined, it would be a Chavez versus Capriles race and the only question was how good the President’s health would be to manage a full court press and campaign against Capriles.

But it was not to be.

As Capriles’ lead versus Chavez began to whither in May 2012, it became clear that Chavez himself was withering in the toxicity of his cancer treatment. It turned out that since March 2012, his closest advisers, including Fidel, Maradona the Chief Babalao and Adan were telling Hugo that he would not be able to campaign. But Hugo was being Hugo and refused to acknowledge the obvious until May. By then Hugo could barely speak for ten minutes at a time in public, was thin and the electorate was doubting his capabilities as a now or future President.

Given that Chavez had led a politically charmed life up to that point, he figured he could listen to his closest electoral advisers, Fidel, Adan and the General, none of which ironically actually believed in elections. But advised they did and it was unanimous, name brother Adan as Candidate, the true Communist in the family, another Chavez, the one that showed you the way, and then, when you recover, you could come back to being President in 2018 and let Adan warm the Presidential chair for you.

Knowing that there was no love lost for Adan Chavez within the PSUV party, I immediately gathered my advisers and within a week announced my candidacy to the Presidency as an alternative and openly welcomed anyone within PSUV to follow me. I told them all: I am the continuity of the revolution, there is no Chavismo without Chavez, but the route towards socialism flows through me. The opposition killed me, accused me, insulted me, but I am used to that, I had a plan.

Within weeks, it was clear that Adan’s candidacy was falling off a cliff at my expense. Capriles and the opposition continued ahead with 40% of the vote intention, I had 30% and Adan was dropping below 15%. It was an amazing turn of events.

By September, Hugo Chavez, fearful of losing it all, decided to have Adan drop out of the race. Adan argued health problems to withdraw and was replaced by then Vice-President Nicolas Maduro, with Jose Vicente moving into that position.

It was simply too late. Maduro gained four points for PSUV the first week, but began dropping soon after that. By the end of October, Maduro had 10%, Capriles had 45% and I had 35%, with 10% undecided. On November 15th. Maduro withdrew from the race with PSUV giving me all their votes. We had a little pop in popularity and on Dec. 2nd. 2012 I was elected by the smallest of margins with 51% of the vote versus 48% for Capriles.

And here I stand being in the podium, my hand raised:

“I, Henri José Falcón Fuentes, swear in front of God and the Fatherland…

The 18-month time frame comes from Roger Noriega, who has hardly been the most trustworthy source of information even at the times when he actually had some sort of connection to those who knew the truth.

However, you just made me think of something: will the cuban doctors lie to Chavez? They answer to the Castro brothers and no one else. Chavistas claim the presidente-comandante is surrounded by people who hide the truth from him. What if they are right in this case? From the point of view of the Castros, telling Chavez that he’s dying is an extraordinarily bad idea. He’ll get depressed and even suicidal. He won’t be able to do what they need him to do in that case. Worse off, Chavez might try to concentrate fully in fighting the cancer instead of making sure someone will be there to continue sending petrodollars to Havana. He might even go to the Evil Empire ™ and even realize they are not all evil over there.

There’s simply no scenario where telling Chavez how bad he really is would be better for the Castros.

He says, no cancer cell was find, that is not the same as cancer-free. Cancer-free could only be said after 5 years. You can’t exclude the possibility of cancer cells remaining undetected. He also said “the battle is not over”. I think more telling are the end of “patria, socialismo o muerte”, the multiples Viviremos and the avoidance of wreaths (corona de flores?) and the panteon ceremony yesterday. Remember it was announced before, that the death cause of Simón Bolívar would be then (at 24th July) reveled.

It is good you try to think out of the box but declaring a second person unfit because of illness is just too unbelieavable.
But your idea about Falcón taking over and Chavismo doing a compromise with him is not that far-fetched. By all means the military caste will put a lot of pressure on anyone who were to take over from Chávez.

My bet, in case Chávez dies or is just way too weak to take over, is that Chavismo will simply ignore elections, they won’t take place, some pseudo-referendum on a new “fom” would come…whatever. In any case: they would simply make up some new rules about how to govern the county, constitution is, after all, just a piece of paper.

LD,
They did not even reveal anything about Bolívar’s heritage. They were testing his genetic material to see ratial composition. Perhaps they found Bolívar’s greatgreatgandmother was, after all, of European origin.

I think the opposition must try to get more voters from the now Chavistas. I remember that in one poll only in the E-class (social strata?) the opposition was in disadvantage (40% to 60% nearly). And there are more poor than rich people… Only if the opposition get a message for all the venezuelans, there will be a chance. I think a message like ” we will continue with all the positive things, but doing it right” should be send. Better medicine for all, better education, control of the inflation, more and better paid work. Less crime for all the population, better mass transport. Continue with Mercal. I think money is there for those things, just cut corruption in all areas, cut gas subsidies.

Now for a horror scenario: Henry Ramos Allup, the God-Emperor of the Bolivarian Republic.

” In the race between the fox and the rabbit, the rabbit always win. For the fox is running for his lunch, and the rabbit is running for his life”

Yet, who would had thought, a time came when an old fox’s hunger was stronger than the young rabbit’s fear. It all begun after the primaries, after a man thought he won the world. But little he knew that primaries or the people had little to do with the true games of power…

To me it is simple, no Chavista other than Chavez can win this race. But Falcon could if he gets the endorsment of the Chavista votes. There are many other scenarios, mostly violent and unconstitutional, I just looked for a democratic one.

As to for Chvaez being cancer free, when you go for chemo, you go for chemo, they dont pobe around, maybe they did an MRI to check for new tumors, but taht’s about it. Another lie in a loing chain.

That’s true Miguel, I think Chavez would try to get another period even at the risk of dying, at least he would die as “comandante-presidente” and could save the “Revolution” at least for a while (anyway, what could he be if not “comandante-presidente”?), maybe assuring a place near Bolivar in the pantheon…
So, what is the earliest time for elections possible? Not that this is for sure, but this would reduce the risk (of not being available) probably.
They may also want to change some things in the constitution too… you never know… (and again, he could be alive in 20 years, but this is not a given anymore, he don’t tell the diagnostic, while it could be something about prostate and “lost of manliness” it looks more and more like a bad prognostic to me).

They don’t need a constitutional change. They just need to violate the Constitution again. They have done that dozens of time in the last year and nothing has happened. So what? They are gang-raping the constitution all the time.

Just one example:

You know, that law is absolutely against our constitution. The part of the constitution that “law” is violating is almost the literal translation of a paragraph from the German Grundgesetz, the German constitution (or chart made constitution). German friends asked me: well, what happened? Lots of marches and stuff on the streets? I told them: not reall,y couple of articles, joke in Chigüire Bipolar.

This is a very optimistic scenario… Unfortunately I’m a liitle bit pessimistic and I’ll include in the list of advisers the chinese who’ll be willing to provide any support to anything in exchange for commodities. It’s already happening with Iran and some african countries… Chavez’s illness would be seen as the black swan of Venezuelan politics.

What Miguel is suggesting is not far fetched, it’s very reasonable. Whoever is elected in the primaries has to get him involved. And Leopoldo Lopez has already done that, there’s an alliance between the two organizations they lead. At some point whatever happens the opposition must be prepared and appeal to all sectors.

The only “win” situation for Chavez is to continue running in the election. If he lives long enough to win then Chavismo is set for another 6 years. If he dies in office the VP will take over & keep things running(?). With the majority in the AN being in the hands of the government the oppos will have no choice but to wait until the next assembly elections.

If he gets really sick or dies before the election then he names a successor, probably Adan, to keep the Chavez name. The win here is that he doesn’t allow an edge to the MUD against an non Chavez candidate.

I still think that if the MUD keeps it’s unity & doesn’t allow the dinosaurs to ruin everything they would win a relatively fair election.

The question then comes back to what the powers (Cubans, Chinese, etc.) will let happen in 2012 if it appears that the MUD candidate will win.

My own opinion is that they will not allow elections to take place or the elections will be so compromised that the vote will be 98% Chavismo like in Cuba.

Bruni, they have acknowledged he went for his first chemo treatment and will return for more. The first chemo session will fool you into thinking it’s not that bad. The second chemo session is when you feel it. One year survival in the hands of the Cubans.

There is manuevering going on within the ranks and Chavez’ return is partly to address that. Lots of BS and head games but reality will soon set in.

GWEH, I agree that the more chemo you’ve got, the more you feel it, but the whole thing does not make any sense to me. You do not go travelling
back and forth right after having your first chemo!

Moreover, chemo impairs your thinking and concentration. This does not look like an impaired guy.

And, on top of that, the miracle cure detected right after chemo…and we still do not know what type of cancer there was.

The only thing that makes me believe that the guy is really sick is his born-again catholicism and the type of messages that he has been twitting lately. Otherwise I would think the whole thing to be a scam (I know, I know Miguel, you don’t agree…)

I think they are trying to do exactly the opposite, hide it, they think it will hurt. It’s only him that has a big mouth and screws up by talking. I loved “Fidel told me I am cancer free”, that was Dr. Fidel, I presume. That is the way dictators handle these things nothing new. Experts on Dictators say narcissistic personalities do exactly what he is doing and an illnness like cancers intensifies the narciscism, not the other way around.

Miguel your scenarios always good. Many hotspots and flahshpoints that impact Venezuela: Cuba, Iran, DPRK and Vzla itself. Push coming to shove in all whereby succession and continuance of the status quo is in order. If Israel attacks Iran, this will a major impact on Venezuela.

A few of people who already commented are definitely not ready to accept a Henry Falcon scenario. I just read your story and I’m still debating which side I’m at. What I do agree with (for the most part, that is) is that if (and this is a BIG IF) HC does become very weak from the cancer or the chemotherapy (or both) there’s a possibility the status quo right before the 2012 electrions may be different from what we see today. People do forget that when he was just released from Yare, HC’s campaign remained in the doldrums for a while, and that it wasn’t until he radicalized his message (as directed by none other than “la rata sucia de” Fidel) that he really took off.

I should also say that I, at this point, I do not allow myself to easily think the outcome of the 2012 elections will be someone else other than HC. For all I hope it really does happen, I, like many other “escualidos” I know, became so frustrated after the events of “11 de abril de 2002″ that I do not allow mysefl so easily to dream there’s a way out of the abyss Venezuela is currently in.

On the other hand, I was also almost trembling when I read your story. I couldn’t but think every few lines “what if…”, “what if…”, “what if [as you said in previous posts] this cancer turns out to really be a game changer”?

Miguel, if you are right, that is, if Chavez is as sick as you think and he steps down at the last minute, he is screwing everybody in his party. He is not allowing his party to organize without him.

Then the secrecy makes sense, not because of “us” but because of “them” (he does not care what we think, but he cares what his prospective successors may think). Then the Cuba treatment makes more sense…

But then, Henry Falcón is not an option. Then the option would be a coup d’état led by his brother and supported by the Castros.

In this whole thing, it is the Castros the one that has the most to lose. Ils sont ceux qui bougent les ficelles…

To me, a coup is the most logical scenario (and one most people here in Caracas disagree with). I was just trying to write one within Constitutional order, one without is simply too unpredictable.

Chavez is a narcissistic, megalomaniac, he does not think like you or me, he is immortal until the last day, the rest are irrelevant. Of course he is screwing everybody, he has been doing that for 12 years, nothing has changed. To him the worst case is he gets sick AFTER he gets reelected and picks a successor then. Given the probability within what we understand what his illness is, I dont think the Falcon scenario is so far fetched, unless they step over the Constitution. Again, to me he is the only “revolutionary”, who is “electable”

We agree 100%. With rupture I meant that, whether it is Chávez or someone else from the military. For me Chávez, whatever his popularity, is just a tool of a bunch of gangsters. They just can’t allow to lose power.

It doesn’t necessarily have to be Adan, even if he is there. The Chávez can use a proxy. Gómez did it. Getting Chávez Senior is just too gross.
Coup is very likely, but then they would put someone who plays “the nice guy”. Maduro?

The last comments “speaks” my mind, I think for the coming years will NOT see any “president” coming outside from the military area. Today robolivarians military is most a mafia more than anything else. They will not allow a change of the status quo that assures their billionaires incomes from their present corrupted practices.

After Chavez, the history of Venezuela will resemble military regimes from last decades of 19th Centuries, and first decades of 20th. That is the logical outcome of the robolutions from the past and the present time.

I don’t believe this is a Venezuela-Cuba (Nicaragua-Bolivia-maybe Ecuador, Argentina and all the other moochers on the hemisphere) thing. When the stakes are this high this is when all those years and money spent with Iran and friends better come into play. I don’t see the Russians and Chinese doing nothing. Anything to screw the US and with Obama in charge everyone should be emboldened.

I don’t think at this stage Russians and specially the Chinese are doing something “to screw the US”. What does that mean? What for? Chamo, no estamos en vainas de la Guerra Fría. They are more practical now, much more practical, even if one more effective than the other.

The Chinese are expanding their clout. They are securing markets. They will do enough for that, not less and not more. They have been rather effective in Africa, although not without errors. They are learning in Latin America, where the States has a lot of experience for obvious reasons but where it is losing ground. The Chinese want firstly to secure materials and export, period.
And that is motive enough to support Chávez. They are doing it in a very quite way. They support him also with intelligence, specially communications equipment.

Venezuela is the best major client for Russian weapons, together with India. The two countries on Earth that depend the most on exporting tools for destruction – measured as percentage within total GDP- are Russia and Israel, followed by the States (which is the first exporter by far but has a more varied economy). Russia got more than 7 billion dollars from Venezuela since 2004. That’s what counts for them.

At least 400 million dollars from FONDEN (yeah, that’s right, FONDEN, FOndo para el Desarrollo Endógeno) were used to buy shares in a Russian bank. That’s just part of it, more is going to go there, among other things to purchase further weapons.

Yeah, Gweh, yeah, we know you are top intelligence specialist, you lunch with the Mossad, then meet with the CIA at noon, then go a bit of time to the NSA to coodinate the technical tids and bits. Shortly after that you meet some DCOs and then focus on your DIA work.

And then you come over and give us excellent intelligence…of course, only those parts that are enough for us to unconsciously influence events that suit US interests.

Gweh, seriously: you can work fo “defence” and all (although up from a certain position thee is no way they would allow you even to show up here to say anything but hello). The guys who are really into intelligence do know the details of individuals, like Miguel, you, me, Pedro Pérez, if they want, specially in the Western world. As for the big picture, the intentions of countries and the like they are as clueless as the average citizen and often more clueless than a lot of very common people with open eyes

The tumor is not the only risk for the integrity of Hugo. He OPENLY commented about Zaratustra’s wisdom, and this is not a good sign.
Nietzsche’s ideas about the “superman” and the need of suppression of morality are linked to the ultra-right, and are contrary to socialism. Years ago I heard from someone that knew Fidel at the law school in Cuba that he always carried books about Hitler and other dictators. So it makes sense that Nietzsche was reintroduced to HRC by Fidel. Hugo really believes that he is the personification of Zaratustra, and a real prophet of the “new man” or in Nietzsche’s words “Superman”, and even worse, that he is beyond good and evil. This is specially funny considering how far is the Venezuelan society of the idea of a superior level of humanity (although it can be ironically argue that Venezuelan politics and military heads are actually far from regular morality standards “following” Nietzsche’s premises). And this shows (again) that Hugo is absolutely “cucu” and if he really have a tumor, he probably will totally lose his mind. On the other hand, the opposition must explain to the people that this guy is absolutely sick, and, again, I’m not talking about something that can be seen in the MRI.

Personally I believe that amidts Chavez’s illness this kind of scenario has a higher probability of happening as those who want to stay in power will have to make use of what the chavismo has managed to put in place in 13 years.

“according to the FT, China has decided to commence an barter system in which Iranian oil is exchanged directly for Chinese exports. The net result: not only a slap for the US Dollar, but implicitly for all fiat intermediaries, as Iran and China are about to prove that when it comes to exchanging hard resources for critical Chinese goods and services, the world’s so called reserve currency is completely irrelevant.”

Same thing the National Socialists in Germany were doing in the 1930s, e.g. trading locomotives to Argentina for beef. Didn’t make the bankers very happy back then.

But on the other hand, hasn’t Venezuela already been doing the same sort of trade with China, oil for imports of manufactured goods?

Of course, China is now almost as market-oriented as the USA in the XIX century, with some exceptions for some sectors.

What about the UN embargo for Iran? Isn’t this violating that?

Other than that, I don’t see why any country should not do business with any other country in the currency or means they both like, at all, whether it is US dollas, Canadian dollars, euros, Yen, whatever.

Check out the article at zerohedge. It seems China and India owe Iran billions of US$ for oil, but because of the US embargo, the money can’t be transferred to Iran. This is an attempt to get around that. Either the article or someone in the comments mentions that there are around 10,000 legal exceptions to the embargo allowing (American?) companies to do business with Iran, but I think dollars for oil is the big no-no.