Uphill slog for Democrats in November

With former Gov. Dick Codey's decision to stay out of the 2013 gubernatorial race, state Sen. Barbara Buono is one step closer to clear sailing for the Democratic nomination.

Newark Mayor Cory Booker walked away from a race against Republican Gov. Chris Christie. State Senate President Steve Sweeney remains on the sidelines for now, but time is getting short.

Buono is looking more and more like the nominee, but is that a good thing for New Jersey Democrats? A Quinnipiac University poll released last week has some depressing news for the party seeking to take back the governor's seat this year.

The poll confirmed what nearly everyone already knows: Christie is riding high, this time with almost 80 percent of New Jersey voters saying the governor was right to verbally slap around House Speaker John Boehner and the Republican majority. Boehner and the GOP House members were the focus of Christie's wrath after they delayed a vote on a $60 billion bill to provide recovery aid for several states devastated by October's superstorm Sandy.

But buried deep within the numbers was more telling detail. When questioned about several hypothetical races for governor, the Democrat who polled best against Christie was the now-departed Codey, with 30 percent to the current governor's 59 percent. Buono, the only declared Democrat in the race, polls the weakest at 22 percent to Christie's 63 percent.

Digging deeper, we learn that Codey also polls the strongest among Democrats, with 58 percent saying they would vote for him in the general election against Christie. But Buono does nowhere near as well, with only 48 percent of Democrats saying they would vote for her.

These numbers are enough to make Democrats shiver and the Christie re-election team very happy. The poll shows that 51 percent of the Democrats surveyed have a favorable opinion of Christie. Currently, 81 percent of Democrats haven't heard enough about Buono to have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her.

Buono is a strong liberal voice within the state Democratic Party, and as majority leader in the state Senate for two years, she not only attempted to raise that voice but also raise her profile. Her caucus repaid her efforts by dumping her in favor of state Sen. Loretta Weinberg. Now, Buono could be her party's standard-bearer in the fall.

As Election Day gets closer and Buono gets more exposure, the numbers will tighten, but Christie's team has been doing everything it can to assure that they don't tighten too much. The governor has peeled away some union support with the endorsement of the Laborers International Union of North America and the Port Authority Police Benevolent Association. (There is a connection there. Ray Pocino, vice president of LIUNA, was reappointed to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey by Christie.)

In addition, Christie has courted unions and votes in Buono's backyard, Middlesex County, a Democratic stronghold. In an October town hall meeting in Perth Amboy, Christie tried to convince union members that he wasn't anti-union. If those types of blue-collar Democratic voters - and there are tons of them in Middlesex County - go for Christie, it's all over.

The governor's political staff must see Middlesex County as fertile ground. Out of his first 100 town hall meetings, 13 were held in Middlesex, the largest total for any county. In comparison, the Republican strongholds of Morris, Monmouth and Ocean counties saw the governor six, seven and eight times, respectively.

Buono - indeed all Democrats - should worry that Christie's strategy is working. Currently, in a head-to-head match-up with Christie, only 16 percent of those with a household income of between $50,000 and $100,000 favor Buono, according to the Quinnipiac poll. Christie tallies 69 percent of those voters.

These are exactly the Middlesex County and union-type voters that Christie seeks to win over and Buono must have to put a dent in the governor's machine.

Quinnipiac poll director Maurice Carroll described Buono as "the weakest of the three top Democrats against Christie." The numbers indicate it's a severe uphill slog for the senator, who faces a party initially indifferent to her candidacy and an electorate enchanted with its Republican governor.

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Uphill slog for Democrats in November

With former Gov. Dick Codey's decision to stay out of the 2013 gubernatorial race, state Sen. Barbara Buono is one step closer to clear sailing for the Democratic nomination.

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