Polls and Public Opinion

News about Polls and Public Opinion, including commentary and archival articles published in The New York Times.

Chronology of Coverage

Nov. 7, 2016

Editorial notes Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey suggesting most Americans share common ground on foreign police, despite bitterly polarized presidential election; argues out of both presidential candidates, only Hillary Clinton would have opportunity to build consensus around her proposals, which are more in line with mainstream. MORE

Nov. 4, 2016

The Upshot; Pollfish poll conducted for The New York Times reveals ways, for better and for worse, in which stances of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016 presidential election have affected how girls aged 14 to 17 view themselves. MORE

Nov. 3, 2016

New York Times/CBS News Poll finds overwhelming majority of voters are disgusted by state of politics in United States, finding that augurs ill for beginning of next president's term, whoever wins; majority of voters believe both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will not be able to unite country; Clinton appears to hold slim edge, with support of 45 percent of likely voters, compared to Trump's 42 percent. MORE

Nov. 3, 2016

Op-Ed article by former Obama campaign manager Jim Messina argues successful campaigns eschew national tracking polls in favor of specialized reports to accurately predict election results; asserts Hillary Clinton is running kind of campaign that focuses on smaller public data sets, which provide better guidance in choosing which voters to pursue. MORE

Oct. 31, 2016

Marc Tracy On Football column examines loss of significance of weekly Associated Press college football poll since 2014 institution of College Football Playoff system. MORE

Oct. 31, 2016

The Upshot; number of big news events, most recently announcement by FBI director James Comey that agency is reopening investigation into Hillary Clinton's email practices, have rocked 2016 presidential race, but none have fundamentally shifted polls. MORE

Oct. 25, 2016

PRRI poll reveals deep ambivalence among Americans about integrity of voting process, with fewer than half expressing confidence that their ballot will be recorded correctly. MORE

Oct. 14, 2016

Presidential candidate Evan McMullin has been drawing large crowds in Utah and has been gaining support in polls, mostly from Mormons and Republicans, which has put him within striking distance of victory in state; McMullin has almost no shot of winning presidency, as he is on only 11 state ballots, but he could make history if he manages to win Utah. MORE

Oct. 13, 2016

The Upshot; Donald J Trump continues to lead presidential race in USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak poll, despite falling behind by double digits in other national surveys; graph and chart provide explanation for why biggest polling outlier of election produces such persistently different results. MORE

Oct. 12, 2016

The Upshot; chart provides advice for those who are trying to make sense of increasing number of polls emerging as presidential election nears. MORE

Oct. 11, 2016

Die-hard Donald Trump supporters reject idea their candidate is faltering in presidential election, despite blunders and falling poll numbers; fans point to high attendance at Trump rallies as proof he is going strong and blame 'rigged' polls for predictions of Clinton win. MORE

Oct. 6, 2016

The Upshot; recent paper examining over 4,000 late-campaign public polls for state-level presidential, Senate and governor races between 1998 and 2014 finds historic margin of error is much higher than touted 3 percentage point standard; reasons cited include misconceptions about sampling subset; revelations mean even if one candidate ends up with as much as five-point lead in early November, they may not end up victor. MORE

Oct. 5, 2016

Recent Pew Research Center poll finds that political party affiliation is strongest predictor of individual views when it comes to climate change, with 72 percent of Americans who say they care a great deal about global warming aligning themselves with Democratic Party. MORE

Oct. 4, 2016

Pew Research Center poll reveals 49 percent of Americans support capital punishment, first time in almost 50 years that support for death penalty has registered below 50 percent in country. MORE

Oct. 2, 2016

News Analysis; discussion of differences between men and women often assumes that women are all on same page about issues impacting their gender; New York Times/CBS News poll finds biggest differences between women on political and social issues are between black and white women and between younger and older women. MORE

Oct. 1, 2016

Analysis of public polls in places mentioned in songs by Bruce Springsteen, widely regarded as troubadour of working-class, white America, reveals which signature Springsteen locales are turning toward Donald J Trump in 2016 presidential race. MORE

Sep. 22, 2016

J D Vance Op-Ed article asserts debate surrounding Hillary Clinton's 'basket of deplorables' comment reflects serious weakness in American political discourse; argues Americans' reliance on polls obscures complexity of fellow citizens, most of whom possess both prejudices and decency, and all of whom should be judged accordingly. MORE

Sep. 22, 2016

Opposition to trade agreements, including pending Trans-Pacific Partnership pact, is rallying cry in presidential race, but polls indicate more support for trade than might be expected; politicians are aware that Americans who disapprove of trade agreements are ones most motivated to vote based on issue. MORE

Sep. 17, 2016

New York Times/CBS News poll examines women's political views and outlook on American life, finding 52 percent of them likely to vote will support Hillary Clinton, while 39 percent back Donald J Trump; many women praise Clinton, but do not see her candidacy as cure-all, and do not consider her role model. MORE

Sep. 17, 2016

Supporters of Hillary Clinton across country express their concerns, in polls and interviews, about possibility that Donald Trump may defeat Clinton. MORE

Sep. 16, 2016

The Upshot; presidential race tightens, with Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump shrinking in national polls since conventions; predictions vary depending on which polls are counted and techniques used by different forecast models. MORE

Sep. 15, 2016

The Upshot; poll conducted by Energy Policy Institute at University of Chicago and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals many Americans are willing to pay money for carbon tax policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; poll also reveals amount Americans are willing to pay is larger than projected cost of robust climate policy. MORE

Sep. 8, 2016

The Upshot; reasons that recent presidential race polls cannot seem to agree on size of Hillary Clinton's lead examined. MORE

Aug. 29, 2016

Charles M Blow Op-Ed column argues Donald J Trump's reputation as bigot is confirmed by polls, which show especially low support among college educated whites. MORE

Aug. 24, 2016

Hillary Clinton's lead in polls over Donald J Trump extends into double-digits, which would indicate landslide victory for her on Election Day; history gives different lesson, however, as no presidential candidate has won landslide victory in 32 years; experts point to politically fractured electorate, and political parties that are ideologically uniform. MORE

Aug. 24, 2016

New York City Education Dept's annual schools survey shows mixed results, with rise in overall satisfaction with public schools but drops in several key areas; survey questions have changed, precluding direct comparison with previous years. MORE

Aug. 20, 2016

Timothy Egan Op-Ed column welcomes news that Donald Trump is slipping in polls and heavily disfavored by voters born after 1980; holds Americans' better instincts, rather than Trump, are winning, along with rejection of incivility and bigotry. MORE

Aug. 17, 2016

Hillary Clinton urges supporters in Philadelphia not to be complacent despite fact polls show her ahead of Donald Trump in every swing state, telling crowds November victory still depends on voter turnout in her favor. MORE

Aug. 13, 2016

Donald J Trump has been unable to crack 45 percent of vote against Hillary Rodham Clinton in several swing states, sign suggesting that he has hit ceiling of voter support; Trump’s advisers express confidence in their strategy and question whether public polls are fully accurate. MORE

Aug. 12, 2016

Donald J Trump, in unusually candid admission of his sliding poll numbers in several key states, appeals to voters for help and repeats assertions that Hillary Clinton should be seen as in league with enemies of United Sates. MORE

Aug. 11, 2016

Quinnipiac University poll finds that New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio may be vulnerable to challenge from third-party candidate by fellow Democrat due to respondents' disapproval of his performance in office; politicians normally identified as strong challengers to de Blasio include City Comptroller Scott Stringer and former Housing Sec Shaun Donovan. MORE

Aug. 2, 2016

Hillary Clinton, with her three-day bus tour through Rust Belt states of Ohio and Pennsylvania, is trying to woo skeptical white men who are leaning Republican, group that views her with most antipathy; latest polls show they prefer Donald J Trump by 55 percent to her 29 percent. MORE

Aug. 2, 2016

Quinnipiac University poll shows 75 percent of black voters, and 52 percent of Hispanics, view New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio's performance favorably, compared with only 27 percent of whites; despite disparity, poll numbers show de Blasio faring well against at least two potential Democratic primary rivals. MORE

Jul. 27, 2016

The Upshot; Pew Research Center conducts survey about three emerging technologies that include gene editing, implanting chips brains and synthetic blood; majority of respondents say they are uncomfortable with scientists meddling in those areas, even if net outcome is positive. MORE

Jul. 26, 2016

The Upshot; polls show Hillary Clinton is significantly behind Donald J Trump in securing support from white voters, particularly men, who do not hold college degrees; large bloc represents significant number of potential votes across country, even in traditionally Democratic states. MORE

Jul. 20, 2016

The Upshot; New York Times' internal presidential prediction model says Hillary Clinton has 76 percent chance of defeating Donald J Trump in 2016 presidential race; model uses statistical research and calculations for data, including extensive look at voting history of each state and about 300 state and national polls conducted since mid-April. MORE

Jul. 19, 2016

The Upshot; analysis of seemingly contradictory results in national and state presidential polls that show both candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald J Trump in lead. MORE

Jul. 15, 2016

New York Times/CBS News Poll shows large numbers of Democrats and Republicans are disappointed with or skeptical of Hillary Rodham Clinton and Donald Trump as their party's presidential candidate. MORE

Jul. 14, 2016

New York Times/CBS News poll finds 69 percent of Americans say race relations are generally bad, and six in 10 Americans believe situation is growing worse; three-quarters of African-Americans, as compared to only about as half as many white people, say they believe police are more likely to use force against a black person than a white person; poll was conducted day after killing of five Dallas police officers. MORE

Jul. 14, 2016

Pew Research Center poll finds that almost four-fifths of white evangelical voters intend to vote for Donald Trump, despite fact that his lifestyle and position on issues seems at odds with their values. MORE

Jun. 28, 2016

The Upshot; workings of exit polls, in light of fact that early results overstated Bernie Sanders's performance, explained. MORE

Jun. 28, 2016

Pew Research Center survey examining racial attitudes in United States finds black and white Americans alike believe race relations are regressing. MORE

Jun. 17, 2016

Polls show Donald Trump beginning to lag behind Hillary Clinton following his public calls for greater scrutiny of Muslim communities in wake of Orlando, Fla, shooting; some experts, however, say Trump may yet tap into American unease over terrorism to gain advantage in general election. MORE

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