Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slightly better news for Labor from Essential Research, which records essentially no change on last week and has Kevin Rudd maintaining a solid lead as preferred prime minister.

Essential Research’s weekly rolling average bucks the trend just slightly in having Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, although the point comes at the expense of the Greens who are down one to 8%, with the Coalition steady on 43%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 51-49. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have also failed to improve, contrary to other recent polling, his approval down two to 37% and disapproval steady at 51%. Kevin Rudd’s ratings tell a more familiar story however, his approval down five to 45% and disapproval up eight to 43%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down only slightly, from 50-35 to 47-35.

As it occasionally does, Essential poses a question more concerned with measuring knowledge in opinion: in this case, 25% think Australia’s national debt is higher compared to other developed countries while 46% say it’s lower, with Coalition voters about evenly divided. Forty-eight per cent rate reducing debt more important than maintaining spending on services and projects against 40% who think the opposite. Forty-five per cent would prefer the government cut spending to reduce debt against only 6% who would prefer taxes be raised, with 21% opting for both and 18% for neither. Foreign aid, the arts, subsidies for business and private schools top the list of preferred targets for cuts, with roads, public schools, pensions and health at the bottom.

Voters are being prepared for Tony Abbott to emulate Premier Colin Barnett and backflip on numerous election promises, according to high-profile WA Labor candidate Alannah MacTiernan.

Mr Abbott's federal campaign hit a speed bump today, when Liberal backbencher Don Randall said the coalition may have to consider going back on election promises given the poor state of the national budget.

After Mr Abbott publicly chastised the MP for Canning, Ms MacTiernan claimed the comments were a sign of things to come, pointing out that during the WA election campaign, Mr Abbott had cited Mr Barnett as one of his political idols.

"Mr Randall is setting the scene - even before the election - for Mr Abbott to be walking away from his election promises," Ms MacTiernan said.

"Mr Abbott has said he wants to model himself on Mr Barnett, and that would be a pretty frightening prospect after the last couple of months have seen a complete betrayal of the (Barnett election) commitments."

Sprocket, there are no doubt issues with landline only polling and including mobiles gets better results, but it sounds to me like Gary Morgan (not Roy, PBUH) is rationalising the fact that his own polling is skewing to Labor.

I can’t work out how Scott could be anyone’s choice. In 2010 she got beaten by the ALP in an area that a few months before had been lost to the Libs in the state election with a 26% swing (not to mention the general turn against LG in western Sydney).

I don’t think it will go well for her this time either, apparently she’s pretty lazy.

William Bowe
Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:54 pm | Permalink
Sprocket, there are no doubt issues with landline only polling and including mobiles gets better results, but it sounds to me like Gary Morgan (not Roy, PBUH) is rationalising the fact that his own polling is skewing to Labor.

thanks for the correction , had to look up PBUH – Peace Be Upon Him? an honorific for one who has passed..

About this blog

William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.