​​As we can observe on the graph below, Small speculators started adding to their long position of the SP500 since mi-July ( blue line ) and Large Speculators decreasing their short positions ( green line )

Seasonality

​​And as we can see on the graph below, the Seasonals are turning bearish for the SP500 til the third week of May...

​​Not much have changed for me since yesterday. I expect the BullishChannel to be broken on the downside in the next few sessions and the ​volatility​ picking up going near Labor Day.​

​We are still within a steep uptrend channel that started on August 12 ​with ​1998.5 ​as ​support and ​2022 as resistance for today.

That bullish channel is in jeopardy unless we do have a daily close above​the 1998.50 level today.

Also, to have another bullish impulse, we need to close above the ​resistance trendline that started on July 3 ( see amber line - charts below ) ​at 1999​​​ for today.

​​​Market is quite complacent after that major grind we had since August 8.Technical Indicators are at or near overbought conditions.​Retail Participants are in Full Speed ​and unaware of the turning point in volatility getting near Labor Day.​We have to take into account that seasonals ​are for a grinding pattern til August 29 before resuming downtrend.

Then today I expect a range from 1988 to 2003.​So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that ​we ​​​stay ​above the ​1994.5 support level absolutely. Unless we will resume ​​back ​to ​the bearish phase.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​We are still within a steep uptrend channel that started on August 12 with
1998.5 ​as ​support and ​2022 as resistance.​​ Also, we have to take into account resistance
trendline that started on July 3 at 1999 ( Amber Line - Charts below ).​​We need to stay above 1998.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1998.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.

​​​​IF 1998.5​ break down on a daily close,​ then a correction begin; then 1981.5 MAX 1876 for now.

​​​​​​IF 1999 break up on a daily close then another bullish impulse; then 2008 MAX 2013.5 as targets.​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1957.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.​Already starting to trade above the 1957.5​ level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

​​​​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals ​are for a grinding pattern til August 29 before resuming downtrend. See 5th chart below.​Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1862 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1988 and 2003.​Expect volatility to be average but picking up getting near Labor Day.

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And Small Speculators started to add to their long positions last week as shown by the chart below....