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Thursday, September 29, 2011

Is NDX sell-off a capitulation?

Today's NDX action took me by surprise. As I lay the arms down and move to the sidelines, I am asking a question: is NDX sell-off a capitulation by big money which was hiding in big tech? I will be observing the trading over the next few sessions to derive the answer. These money flows take days, and sometimes weeks to play out. Since we are in HFT age, may just take hours :)
More questions to think about:

1. Is tech the last leg of the stool to go?
2. Will old tech outperform the new tech?
3. Will NDX underperform the entire market going forward?
4. Is this a few-days wonder or will this be the trend to continue?

Huge sell-off in momentum tech stocks today. These are very steep declines, and usually do not happen out of nothing. It looks like funds, who were up in these tech names compared to down everywhere else, decided to cash in their chips. But is this the only reason, or is there something else the market is telling us?
Tech was the leader until today. It may continue to be, but I am not sure now.
The fact that we sold off on good economic news continues to tell me that we are in bear market, where all rallies get sold hard. I like to know who the leaders are going forward - it is not clear now. Staying flat...

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