People were throwing around numbers like $300 million, and this isn’t that. But it’s pretty incredible all the same: ESPN is reporting that the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw have agreed on a seven year, $215 million contract, with an opt-out after five years. That breaks down to an average annual value of over $30 million a year.

There are good things for both sides here. The five-year opt-out provision gives Kershaw a chance to make even more than this if, come five years from now, he’s even better or still elite and the top dollars for pitchers have gone up. Put differently: the guy who just signed a gigantic deal at age 25 can do it again at age 30 is he wants to. The amount of money this young man stands to make in the next 10-12 years is mind-boggling.

And even if the the opt-out provision is not exercised, the Dodgers are only on the hook for Kershaw through his age-32 season, which does not present nearly the sort of risk that many mega-deals do, as they often take players through their late 30s or into their 40s.

Kershaw has won two of the past three NL Cy Young Awards and was the runner up the third time. He’s 77-46 in his career with a 2.60 ERA in 184 career games. In the past three seasons he is 51-23 with an ERA of 2.21.

He’s quite simply the best pitcher in the game. And he is now the highest paid player — on an average annual salary basis — in all of baseball.

The Red Headed Stepchildren of Anaheim couldn’t draw Dodger fans during the dark days of the McCourt Reign of Terror and Greed, they have less than zero chance of being any kind of relevant in either Southern California baseball or the AL West.

How did the Angels do in the postseason? Oh yeah, they weren’t invited after finishing in 3rd place, 18 games out. And while the Angels were at home, the Dodgers won the West and beat Atlanta in the Divisional Series before losing to the Cardinals in the NLCS.

Not wishing him ill, but it could take just one off balance pitch to change that. For me anyway that’s what makes all these whopping pitching deals so crazy. Between the shoulder, elbow, wrist etc. there are so many parts that can break down very suddenly.

I hope he manages to stay healthy but chances are most pitchers will have some type of arm injury over the next 7 years. The good news is that the docs are getting better and better at getting them back on the field and as good as new, or at least close to it.

If he makes an average of 100 pitches per start and starts an average of 33 times a year (though I’m sure he might start more than that if the Dodgers are in contention down the stretch) then that’s 3300 in-game pitches plus untold side-work and warm-up pitches. So that works out to be around $9300 per in-game pitch, so I guess that’s probably about right.

Did I just see this come from a Yankees fan? I can only hope it was sarcasm.

Incidentally, talk all you want about big spending when it comes to bringing in free agents like Greinke or Tanaka, but not when a team spends big to keep their own home grown talent. Most fans think that’s how the money should be spent.

It was sarcasm, but I am curious about your second statement. Is there some moral superiority in spending ridonkulous money on a team’s own player vs. spending on a free agent? What does the moral tree on this look like? If the Dodgers had allowed Kershaw to reach free agency before signing him to this contract, would that make it worse? What if a team trades for a player, then extends him? Does the player need to be in an organization for a certain period of time before that team should be allowed to extend him? Should we all hate the Mariners after they swooped in and stole Cano away frm the Yankees, or should we hate the Yankees for not extending their own players, or hate Cano for taking the offer that dwarfed all other offers?

rbj1 - Jan 15, 2014 at 4:47 PM

Good for the future of baseball too. The next young Johnny Elway who comes along, which sport to you think his parent are going to steer him to? Nasty, brutish football with no guaranteed contracts but you can get a lifetime supply of CTE, or wonderful baseball where you can earn hundreds of millions?

Must be nice to have owners that aren’t cheapskates. I’m happy for you Dodger fans. Here, we trade our Cy Young winners for total junk rather than pay them what they deserve. Hope Kershaw keeps on dominating.

Are you the one who always stands behind me on those elevators? Seems like you’d learn your lesson by now.

What’s this got to do with Kershaw? You saying he crapped his pants in that game 6? Dodgers better hope this doesn’t become a trend. For $30 million a year, they need to be winning a couple World Series – not watching their guy give up 7 runs in 4 innings of win-or-go-home games.

The way I see it, if you are going to pay a guy like he’s the second coming of Bob Gibson, then he damned sure better be the second coming of Bob Gibson.

This seems like a surprisingly reasonable deal for both sides. Kershaw gets paid, while retaining some upside potential, and the Dodgers are a bit more protected than they would be with a 10 or 12 year monster of a contract. That’s good negotiating.

A bit more dollars on average then I thought he might get but fewer years. But It does work to both the Dodgers and Kershaw advantage. The Dodgers get a break in the years and Kershaw gets to cash in big time again at 30 years old if he continues on the track he has been on pitching wise.

My guess is this contract that Close negotiated gives you a glimpse into what it will probably take to get Tanaka. I’m going to guess 7 years with an opt-out after 5 for $20MM per +/-. The team looking to sign Tanaka is probably looking at a total of $160MM ($140MM for Tanaka and $20MM posting fee) plus or minus.

ALL of them would pay Kershaw this much (though some would then only be able to afford a team of Little Leaguers behind him). This contract is hardly surprising as there is no salary cap like in the NFL, thus no need for ownership to be “reasonable” about anything.

Stick to football, the Seahawks look primed for a Super Bowl berth (just need to beat the fortywhiners).