MLBTR Originals

Rounding up of the last two weeks’ worth of original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing team…

Tim Dierkes compiled MLBTR’s annual list of out-of-options players, several of whom could be facing a roster crunch prior to Opening Day.

MLBTR began our annual “Offseason In Review” series, recapping and analyzing every team’s winter moves. The first teams up were the Tigers (by Steve Adams),Marlins (by Jeff Todd),Giants, and Red Sox (both by Mark Polishuk).

Steve Adams and Jeff Todd provided an update on the 18 players selected in last winter’s Rule 5 Draft, and how many of those names are on pace to win 25-man roster spots with their new teams.

Spring is the time for long-term extensions, with teams looking to lock up both soon-to-be free agents, players entering their arbitration years, or even some less-conventional extension candidates. To this last point, Jeff Todd examines the case for the Royals to explore an extension with late bloomer Whit Merrifield, who looks to be an important piece for the team in the near future even as K.C. goes into a rebuilding phase.

Speaking of extensions, the Astros made headlines this week when they agreed to add five years and $151MM to Jose Altuve’s deal, ensuring that the star second baseman will remain the face of the Houston franchise. Kyle Downing submitted a pair of polls about the extension to the MLBTR readership, asking them to grade the deal both from the Astros’ perspective and from Altuve’s perspective.

Yesterday, it was reported that the Astros have agreed to a five-year, $151MM extension with Jose Altuve that’ll keep him in Houston through his age-34 season. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd mentioned yesterday, the deal will be by far the largest extension ever given to a second baseman, handily topping the $110MM given to Dustin Pedroia by the Red Sox in 2013.

It’s also just the sixth deal in MLB history that comes with an average annual value greater than $30MM. A win above replacement is widely believed to be worth around $8MM, so it seems likely that Altuve could still provide the 4-ish WAR per year necessary to provide the Astros with surplus value on this new deal. Indeed, the reigning AL MVP and three-time batting champ has been worth 14.3 fWAR across the past two seasons alone.

Of course, it’s not a given that Houston’s star second baseman can maintain that level of production through the age of 34. Although his strongest and most notable skill is his penchant for making good contact (with an astonishingly low swinging strike rate) and racking up hits, a large part of his value is tied up in his baserunning. Though last season Altuve stole 32 bases and managed a .339 BABIP on grounders, history says that his speed isn’t likely to stick around past age 30, at least not to that level.

Even as his speed starts to go, however, contact ability and plate discipline (Altuve carries an incredible 10.7% career strikeout rate) are skills that typically tend to age well. And there’s something to be said for the Astros keeping the face of their franchise around through 2024.

It’s not unreasonable to think that Altuve could have earned a larger guarantee if he’d waited to hit the free agent market following the 2019 season. But as with his first extension with the Astros, he’ll essentially sacrifice earnings upside for added financial security… and a whole lot of it, too. The contract ranks as the 31st-largest guarantee in MLB history. He’s now guaranteed life-changing money, with a chance to earn even more when he hits the free agent market again six and a half years from now.

At this point, we want to know your opinion. What do you think of the second Altuve deal from the Astros’ perspective? (Poll link for app users)

The sale of the Marlins to a group led by control person Bruce Sherman was not formally consummated until the end of the 2017 season, so the ensuing winter represented the launching of an entire new era in Marlins baseball. Though the Fish retained baseball operations president Michael Hill and skipper Don Mattingly, the entire organization is now marching to the beat of rookie CEO Derek Jeter.

Even as Jeter launched a series of new initiatives on the business side, he and Hill oversaw a major sell-off of MLB assets. That decision drew plenty of indignation, to be sure, but certainly was understandable in many ways. Miami had finished the prior season with just 77 wins and was clearly a few good arms away from being a plausible challenger in a top-loaded National League. The new ownership group’s business plan, meanwhile, required a significant drop in payroll. Skeptics would point out that the spending cut was necessitated by the hefty purchase price, which chiefly benefited much-reviled former owner Jeffrey Loria.

No matter one’s perspective, the bottom line was plain as could be: the Marlins had to strike multiple trades involving key veterans. With no prospect of saving money on a slate of underperforming contracts to players such as Wei-Yin Chen, Martin Prado, Edinson Volquez, Brad Ziegler, and Junichi Tazawa, attention turned to a superstar slate of outfielders that made up the core of the team.

The focus, from the get-go, was on superhuman slugger — and reigning NL MVP — Giancarlo Stanton. But the first outfielder the Marlins traded didn’t even play that position in Miami. Second bagger Dee Gordon was shipped to the Mariners to become their new center fielder. As had been expected, Gordon’s fairly significant contract did not allow the Marlins to reap a significant haul in talent.

While not a pure salary dump, the Gordon trade made it clear beyond any question that the team was open for business and ready to move dollars. A steady progression of trade talks ensued.

The Stanton sweepstakes occupied headlines for the first portion of the offseason — so much so that (at the time, at least) many believed his ongoing availability was slowing the rest of the winter business. A no-trade clause left significant power in Stanton’s court and surely didn’t make things easy for Hill. He had lined up deals with the Giants and Cardinals, but meetings between Stanton and those organizations did not facilitate swaps. The Yankees stepped into that void, sending Starlin Castro to fill in for Gordon and help offset a portion of Stanton’s monster contract. While the two prospects in the deal aren’t household names, they’re considered intriguing talents and are certainly known well to Marlins exec Gary Denbo, who came over from the Yankees only months earlier as Jeter’s hand-picked addition to the baseball ops department.

It came as little surprise when, a few days later, the Fish wound up completing a deal with the Cards. Having already talked over quite a few prospects, the teams quickly came together on Marcell Ozuna, who isn’t Stanton’s equal as a player but had a breakout 2017 season and appealing contract situation. With two years of arbitration left, it was clear he’d have to be cashed in now.

It’s no accident that those three players went first. The Marlins’ methodical march down the line was designed to bring some order to the process of auctioning players. It started with those who most clearly needed to be moved to get the salary back in line.

The remainder of the team’s trade chips, though, were not in such black-and-white circumstances. As the calendar flipped to 2018, there were still quite a few trade candidates — some of whom expressed their consternation with the team’s direction publicly. Eventually, in one last major move, the Marlins completed the dismantling of their once-great outfield by sending Christian Yelich to the Brewers — a deal we’ll cover in full below.

The above-described trades, which delivered Castro and a variety of young outfielders at or near major-league readiness, filled some of the gaps they created. Otherwise, Miami has utilized the means familiar to all rebuilding teams to fill out its roster.

The Marlins have thus far completed just one MLB signing, a modest one-year pact with veteran outfielder Cameron Maybin. Given the payroll plan, it’s not surprising that the organization has not been interested in spending on one-year veterans who could prop things up and turn into trade chips. Other than Maybin, the Fish have been content competing jobs among untested rookies and the players who were added through low-risk means over the offseason. As things stand, the Opening Day roster could conceivably include three or four position players who were picked up in minor trades or on minor-league deals, especially with infielders Martin Prado and J.T. Riddle both nursing injuries.

Questions Remaining

Frankly, the Marlins’ future likely won’t be impacted much by the final roster decisions they make coming out of camp. Even if they perform, players like Scott Van Slyke and Jacob Turner are unlikely to be around for very long. At the same time, they won’t be allowed to stand in the way of the development of young talent (or, perhaps, the opportunity to pick up any interesting players who shake loose from other organizations late in camp). We’ll focus here, then, on the longer-term matters that will be impacted by the season to come.

Drastic though the changes have been, the cuts could’ve gone deeper. And they may yet. It’s still a bit surprising that catcher J.T. Realmuto has not been traded with just three years of control remaining (particularly after he requested he be dealt). If he continues to perform, he could be a hotly pursued talent at the trade deadline or next winter. Likewise, righty Dan Straily is a solid and affordable rotation piece who could make quite a lot of sense for other organizations. And though his contract is an obstacle, Castro is a productive and still-youthful player. The latter two players are also both controlled for three campaigns.

True, dealing either of those players would mean opening a rather significant hole on the roster. At the right price, though, the Marlins have to be willing to make a move. Odds are, after all, that the rebuilding process will still be ongoing as these three quality performers are nearing the open market.

Those aren’t the only trade candidates whose performances will be watched in 2018. First baseman Justin Bour could hold appeal, though there’s also not much reason to think demand will be robust given the collapse of the market for similar sluggers. Brad Ziegler will function as the closer in Miami and will be a clear trade candidate if he can engineer a bounceback campaign. Reliever Junichi Tazawa is also seeking to make good in the second year of his free-agent deal. Veteran infielder Martin Prado and lefty Wei-Yin Chen are owed far more than their market value at present, though perhaps the Fish could save some future salary obligations if things break right.

Of course, money isn’t the only factor in the rebuild. The young talent brought back in the team’s various winter swaps will also be looked upon to develop a new core that can generate fan excitement and ultimately spur a return to contention. In some cases, perhaps, the organization will be able to see the future right from the get-go. Righty Sandy Alcantara and outfielder Magneuris Sierra, both acquired in the Ozuna deal, could well contribute in 2018. But most eyes will be on the players recouped in the club’s most interesting winter trade …

Deal of Note

Sure, the Stanton deal created the most intrigue. But it was nearly inevitable that his huge contract would be moved when the organization determined it couldn’t support a payroll increase to build around the existing core. Failed signings that had been intended to build around the team’s three exciting young outfielders largely sealed the fate of Stanton and Ozuna.

But Yelich’s situation was somewhat different. Unlike Ozuna, he accepted an early-career extension. And it worked out swimmingly. The 26-year-old Yelich has been steadily productive and has even shown some promise of improving further. And the price, of course, is quite appealing — so much so that he did not necessarily have to be traded. Yelich is owed just $7MM for the coming season, with future salaries that never top $15MM through 2022 (the last year via option).

Those same factors also made Yelich plenty marketable, though, and the Marlins were obviously able to generate enough interest to pull the trigger on a move. Giving up five affordable seasons of a quality young regular is a tough thing to do. This trade, more than the others, has the potential to sting if the players acquired don’t live up to expectations.

The Marlins no doubt hope that Lewis Brinson will be an exciting, high-value performer right out of the gates. He’s likely to step right into Yelich’s shoes in center. After all, Brinson has nothing more to prove at Triple-A and has enjoyed a productive spring thus far. While he’s expected to be a productive defender, though, there are divergent views on his likely outcome as a hitter, so there’s still some risk here.

If the Fish really hit it big, they’ll end up with two new outfielders out of this deal, as they were also able to pry Monte Harrison from the Brewers. The 22-year-old ripped up High-A pitching last year and may not be too far from the big leagues if he can show similarly in the upper minors. Like Brinson, Harrison has tools aplenty, though he has more developmental hurdles still left to clear.

Both of the other players acquired in this deal, infielder Isan Diaz and righty Jordan Yamamoto, are graded among the Marlins’ top 25 or so prospects. They’re joined by a host of other players who came to the organization in this winter’s trading frenzy.

Overview

By and large, the coming season will be focused on development and weighing transactional opportunities — including both trades of existing veterans and perhaps also keeping an eye out for talented players who can be had for a low acquisition cost from other teams. The Marlins will be evaluating players such as Brian Anderson, J.T. Riddle, and Justin Nicolino, in addition to some of those listed above, while hoping that righty Jose Urena can show that his solid 2017 results weren’t a fluke.

While the new ownership group has already taken the brunt of fan frustration over the selloff, though, that doesn’t mean it’s time to coast. The baseball ops department still has some very tough potential decisions ahead of it on talented and popular players.

There were 18 players selected in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft — which is to say that 18 players who were left off their organizations’ respective 40-man rosters were selected by a new team and given a chance to break camp on a 25-man roster.

Eligibility for the Rule 5 Draft is dependent on age and minor league service time, but the Rule 5 is generally an opportunity for potential big leaguers who aren’t in their clubs’ immediate plans to break through elsewhere, so long as they can remain on their new club’s roster/disabled list for the entire season — including at least 90 days of active roster time. (A player who falls shy of those 90 days of active service due to DL time retains his Rule 5 status in following seasons until he has accumulated 90 active days on the 25-man roster.) Rule 5 players cannot be optioned to the minors without first being passed through outright waivers and, if they clear, then offered back to their original club for $50K (half of the $100K cost of making a Rule 5 pick in the first place).

Here’s a look at the spring standing of the current slate of Rule 5 picks:

Victor Reyes, OF, Tigers (selected out of D-backs organization): The 23-year-old Reyes is hitting just .200/.243/.229 through 37 plate appearances after being selected with the No. 1 pick in this year’s Rule 5 Draft. Obviously that’s not the performance Detroit was hoping to receive, though that hasn’t ruled him out for a roster spot on a rebuilding club. Manager Ron Gardenhire recently called it a “really big” decision when chatting with the Detroit Free Press’ Anthony Fenech, who examines the decision at greater length in his column.

Julian Fernandez, RHP, Giants (from Rockies): The 22-year-old Fernandez has yet to pitch above A-ball since debuting as a 17-year-old back in 2013, and he’s been hammered for 10 runs on six hits and four walks with six strikeouts in 3 1/3 innings with the Giants this spring. It’s tough to see him sticking, even if he can top 102 mph with his heater (as Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper noted on Twitter at the time of the draft).

Nick Burdi, RHP, Pirates (from Twins via trade with Phillies): Burdi, recovering from Tommy John surgery, has yet to pitch this spring and will be on the disabled list to open the season.

Carlos Tocci, OF, Rangers (from Phillies, via trade with White Sox): Tocci has swiped six bags and reportedly shown good leatherwork in the outfield, making him a plausible reserve outfield candidate if the Rangers decide to prioritize those attributes in rounding out their bench. On the other hand, he’s struggling at the plate this spring and does not exactly have a lengthy track record of hitting in the upper minors.

Brad Keller, RHP, Royals (from D-backs, via trade with Reds): Though he managed only a 4.68 ERA at the Double-A level last year, Keller is being looked at as a reliever by a Kansas City organization that is in need of pitching depth. He has recorded seven strikeouts in six spring innings and seems to have a solid shot at taking a job.

Burch Smith, RHP, Royals (from Rays, via trade with Mets): Once a well-regarded prospect whose career was derailed by injury, Smith put up some interesting numbers in the Arizona Fall League (including 29 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings). He has been a bit wild this spring, handing out eight free passes in eight frames, but could join Keller in the K.C. pen.

Anyelo Gomez, RHP, Braves (from Yankees): Yet another interesting player in a Yankees system that is producing too much talent for the team’s 40-man roster, Gomez ran up the ladder in a strong 2017 season, briefly reaching Triple-A and ending with a cumulative output of 70 1/3 innings of 1.92 ERA pitching with 11.1 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. He hasn’t dominated this spring, but the Braves obviously like his arm and have plenty of reason to try to hang onto him in a year in which they do not expect to compete for the postseason.

Nestor Cortes, LHP, Orioles (from Yankees): What’s that we were saying about the Yankees? Ah yes, another such player. The 23-year-old just ran up over a hundred innings of 2.06 ERA ball in the upper minors, with 9.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. He has held his own as a starter this spring, too. With the O’s in need of both lefty relievers and rotation depth, he seems to be on track for a job.

Jordan Milbrath, RHP, Pirates (from Indians): An intriguing side-arm reliever, Milbrath certainly came into camp with a shot at cracking the Pittsburgh pen. But it’s fair to wonder if that’s still possible now that he has struggled through six outings, coughing up eight earned runs on eight hits and seven walks in 5 1/3 innings.

Elieser Hernandez, RHP, Marlins (from Astros): The pitching-needy Marlins snagged Hernandez after he showed well at the High-A level and in the Venezuelan Winter League. He has impressed this spring with nine strikeouts and no walks over ten innings, so the Marlins have every reason to stash him in the bullpen.

Mike Ford, 1B, Mariners (from Yankees): An injury to Ryon Healy initially looked like it could help to open a door for Ford, but it’s a fairly short-term issue for Healy, and Ford is hitting just .150/.292/.325 through 48 PAs this spring. With Daniel Vogelbach on hand as another lefty swinging first base/designated hitter option, Ford could have a tough time sticking in Seattle.

Luke Bard, RHP, Angels (from Twins): Bard was shelled for five runs in one-third of an inning in one of his outing but has otherwise impressed the Halos this spring, as Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times recently wrote. Manager Mike Scioscia, in particular, sounded encouraged by Bard’s ability to throw multiple innings per outing. At present, he seems to have a decet chance of making the Angels’ roster.

Tyler Kinley, RHP, Twins (from Marlins): The hard-throwing Kinley has allowed just two runs in seven innings with the Twins, but while he’s whiffed seven hitters in that time he’s also walked five. The Twins signed three free-agent relievers this winter and are aiming to contend in 2018, making it tough to see Kinley sticking on the roster all season (or even breaking camp with the club).

Albert Suarez, RHP, D-backs (from Giants): Suarez has a 3.72 ERA with an 8-to-2 K/BB ratio in 10 2/3 innings for the D-backs this spring. His chances of landing a bullpen spot improved somewhat with an oblique injury to Randall Delgado. As Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic recently pointed out, because Suarez has been previously outrighted off the Giants’ 40-man roster, he would not need to be offered back to the Giants if he clears waivers and could instead elect free agency.

Anthony Gose, LHP, Astros (from Rangers): Gose was already placed on waivers by the Astros and returned to the Rangers after clearing.

Pedro Araujo, RHP, Orioles (from Cubs): The Baltimore organization certainly seems to be impressed with Araujo. He generated plenty of swings and misses in 2017 and has carried that over into camp, with seven Ks and just one walk in his five innings.

Brett Graves, RHP, Marlins (from A’s): Though he produced tepid results in his first effort at the Double-A level last year, Graves maintained a solid K/BB ratio and obviously caught the Marlins’ eye. But he has had a messy spring and is now slowed by an oblique strain, so the odds are against him going north with the MLB team.

Jose Mesa, RHP, Orioles (from Yankees): Indications are that Mesa is not quite keeping pace with his two fellow Rule 5 hurlers. Indeed, he has surrendered five walks and five earned runs in his 5 2/3 innings of Grapefruit League action.

The rebuilding Tigers did much of their heavy lifting on the trade front last summer, when they shipped out Justin Upton, Justin Verlander, Justin Wilson and J.D. Martinez, leading to a relatively quiet winter for the team that holds the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft. GM Al Avila and his staff made a handful of small-scale free-agent pickups and one notable trade as they continue to look toward the future.

The primary need for the Tigers over the past year-plus has simply been to build up a farm system that was depleted by years of aggressive “win-now” moves that left the minor league ranks perilously thin. In that same vein, paring back the big league payroll to clear room for future commitments has been paramount.

With that in mind, the Tigers surprised no one when they moved their top remaining trade chip: Ian Kinsler. A saturated market for second basemen and a sub-par 2017 season at the plate held down Kinsler’s value on the trade market, and his limited no-trade protection tied Avila’s hands. Detroit ultimately landed outfielder Troy Montgomery (ranked 26th among Tigers farmhands by MLB.com) and righty Wikel Hernandez in exchange for the veteran, shedding $12MM in 2018 payroll in the process.

Turning to the 2018 roster, while it certainly wouldn’t behoove the Tigers to spend heavily on rotation upgrades in a season where they’re likely to be one of the league’s worst teams, Detroit unquestionably lacked starting depth. Jordan Zimmermann has struggled enormously in his first two seasons with the Tigers. Michael Fulmer was coming off ulnar nerve transposition surgery. Matt Boyd and Daniel Norris have displayed flashes of potential but have not yet solidified themselves as long-term rotation cogs. Beyond that, the team’s options were thin.

Affordable deals for Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano give the Tigers a pair of veteran stopgaps who could potentially become trade assets themselves this summer. In Fiers’ case, if he thrives in Detroit, he’s also controllable for the 2019 season via arbitration, making him all the more logical a piece. It’s cliche to call Liriano mercurial at this point, but the lefty has long shown a wide variance of outcomes on a season to season basis, and if the Tigers can get him to harness his control, he could net a semi-interesting piece this summer. Adding that pair could mean that Norris begins the year in Triple-A, whereas the out-of-options Boyd is a lock to make the roster.

The Tigers faced a similar dearth of outfield options and, accordingly, made a similarly low-cost stopgap acquisition in signing Leonys Martin to a one-year pact. Like Fiers, he’s controllable through the 2019 season via arbitration and could either emerge as a trade piece this summer or an affordable option over a two-year term. The fleet-footed veteran gives the Tigers an above-average defender in center field who can provide value on the bases even if his bat doesn’t bounce back to its 2013-14 and 2016 levels.

Detroit was undoubtedly pleased with the contributions of John Hicks at backup catcher last year, but given his lack of a track record in the Majors they brought in veterans such as Derek Norris, Brayan Pena and Jarrod Saltalamacchia as minor league depth options. The need for a utility infielder led to a comparable blend of minor league signings in Alexi Amarista, Pete Kozma and Niko Goodrum.

Questions Remaining

The list of remaining questions for the Tigers, as one would expect in the early stages of a rebuild, is plentiful. At present, the team lacks clear long-term options at both middle-infield positions and all around the outfield. Detroit’s system, at least, is stacked with outfield prospects, including Daz Cameron, Derek Hill and Christin Stewart, among many others. The infield, however, is murkier. While there’s some hope that Dawel Lugo (acquired in the J.D. Martinez trade) and Isaac Paredes (Justin Wilson/Alex Avila trade) could hold down infield spots in the long term, neither is considered a elite prospect by national outlets. That, of course, hardly means they won’t establish themselves as regulars, but it’s worth noting that the vast majority of Detroit’s top-ranked prospects are pitchers and outfielders.

That’s all the more problematic with Jose Iglesias in his final year of control and likely to be traded this summer. Dixon Machado has yet to prove his mettle in the Majors but will be handed the keys at second base. The lack of infield depth made the Tigers a logical suitor for someone like Neil Walker from my vantage point, as he’d have pushed Machado to a utility role (until Iglesias was traded at the very least) and could’ve emerged as a trade chip himself. Perhaps Walker wasn’t interested in signing with a rebuilding club, or perhaps the Tigers simply felt it better to give Machado everyday at-bats sooner rather than later. Regardless, their lack of infield depth seems fairly glaring.

Perhaps, then, that’ll be a potential area of focus as the Tigers look to do some further summer shopping on the trade market. Offseason pickups such as Fiers, Liriano and Martin all figure to be widely available, as do Iglesias and corner outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, both of whom were shopped this offseason but ultimately remained with the club. (The Tigers also reportedly explored extension talks with Castellanos, but it doesn’t seem as if the sides gained much traction.)

The larger question facing Detroit this summer will no doubt be whether the time is right to cash in on larger chips such as presumptive closer Shane Greene and, much more significantly, ace Michael Fulmer. While Fulmer in particular could be viewed as a building block, he’ll also likely be considered a difference-maker to contenders looking to bolster their rotations leading up to a postseason push.

The Tigers will be marketing a whopping four and a half years of control over Fulmer, which could lead to franchise-altering offers of young talent for the 2016 Rookie of the Year. Detroit, no doubt, would only move him for an otherworldly return given the lack of urgency to market him, but teams figure to line up with enticing offers. Scoring a big return in what feels like an increasingly likely trade of Fulmer — be it this summer or at some later point in the next 18 months — could rapidly accelerate the rebuild for Al Avila & Co.

Beyond that, this is largely a season where the Tigers will need to find out what they have in some key young pieces. Can Daniel Norris and Boyd cement themselves as big league starters? (And, if so, could they also be marketed this July or next winter? Norris actually has less team control remaining than Fulmer.) Can Jeimer Candelario establish himself as a starting-caliber third baseman? Is JaCoby Jones an everyday option in the outfield or more of a utility piece? It’s a critical year for several young pieces around the roster as the Tigers evaluate who will comprise the core of their next contending roster.

Overview

The Tigers brought in several stopgap options, as one would typically expect from a rebuilding club, but they held off on cashing in on some of their more appealing chips in Michael Fulmer and Shane Greene. Both could find themselves on the market again this winter, along with a host of other names, as Detroit still looks to be years away from once again emerging as a perennial threat. While last year’s deadline deals were as much about shedding salary as they were acquiring talent, their July maneuverings will take a different tone this summer, as they’ll be marketing more affordable and (in some cases) controllable assets.

Those deals, paired with the expiration of Victor Martinez’s contract following the 2018 season, should help push the Tigers’ rebuild to the next stage, though the ultimate progress of that rebuilding effort will be largely dependent on whether their young assets that’ve already reached the Majors can break out in 2018. The Tigers have done quite a bit of maintenance on their long-term payroll since embarking on this rebuild, and their farm is in much better shape, but there’s still a lot of work to be done.

It isn’t a stretch to say that Boston’s entire offseason revolved around a single player. While the Red Sox did their due diligence by checking in on some other big free agent bats (such as Carlos Santana, Eric Hosmer, and Logan Morrison), J.D. Martinez had long seemed like a natural fit, particularly given his past association with Dave Dombrowski. As well, Martinez’s numbers over the last four seasons — .300/.362/.574 with 128 homers — set him apart as the consistent, elite bat that the Sox were lacking last season in the wake of David Ortiz’s retirement.

It did take a while for the deal to be struck, both because agent Scott Boras was surely trying to find at least one more big-money suitor for his client and because the Red Sox saw no reason to offer anything close to Boras’s initial $200MM asking price for Martinez given the lack of competition. The Diamondbacks were the only other team that seemed like a serious consideration for Martinez, but even they were a longshot due to a lack of payroll flexibility.

Even once a deal was struck, it still took another week for contractual terms to be fully worked out, resulting in quite a bit of flexibility for both sides. Martinez can opt out of the deal after the 2019, 2020, and 2021 seasons, while the Red Sox can turn the contract’s final two years into mutual options should Martinez spend significant time on the DL due to injuries related to the Lisfranc foot problem that sidelined him for part of the 2017 campaign. These terms reflect some extra caution for a franchise that has been burned on several expensive free agent signings in recent years, and if Martinez plays well enough to opt out at the first opportunity, the Red Sox would have to feel pretty satisfied at getting elite production on what would become a two-year, $50MM commitment without having to worry about a decline on the contract’s back end.

Martinez will spend most of his time as a designated hitter, occasionally stepping into some corner outfield duty to spell Andrew Benintendi or Jackie Bradley Jr. against left-handed pitching. Bradley was himself the subject of some trade speculation this winter, though the Sox never seemed particularly keen on the idea of moving a controllable player who offers outstanding baserunning and defense, plus some above-average hitting numbers in the past. With Martinez willing to accept a role as the primary DH (but also eager to improve upon his recent poor showing as a defender), the Red Sox were able to both upgrade their lineup while also keeping their elite defensive outfield formation of Benintendi/Bradley/Mookie Betts intact.

While Boston had been linked to several first base names earlier in the offseason, the team made the somewhat surprising move (two months before signing Martinez) of bringing Mitch Moreland back into the fold on a two-year deal. Moreland provides solid numbers against right-handed pitching and a very good glove at first base, but his contract landed a fair sight higher than other, similarly productive first basemen. In any event, he’ll now participate in some sort of timeshare with Hanley Ramirez at first, with Ramirez also seeing time at DH when Martinez is in the field.

Also returning to the infield mix is Eduardo Nunez, who will eventually settle into a utilityman role but will suit up as Boston’s starting second baseman for at least the first few weeks of the regular season. Dustin Pedroia is hopeful that his recovery from knee surgery will allow him to return a bit earlier than the originally-projected seven-month timeframe, but if not, the Sox now have a very solid replacement at the keystone in Nunez. With Marco Hernandez out until May due to shoulder surgery, Nunez will provide the Sox with some valuable infield depth, including at third base should Rafael Devers have a sophomore slump.

Questions Remaining

Dombrowski has spoken in the past about how Boston’s established pitching staff makes it hard for the club to attract notable veterans as minor league depth, as those pitchers prefer to join teams that provide clearer opportunities to win big league jobs. This particular issue could become an early problem for the Sox given that two members of their projected starting five could now begin the season on the disabled list. Drew Pomeranz’s spring work was delayed by a mild flexor strain, and it isn’t known if he’ll be ready by Opening Day. Meanwhile Eduardo Rodriguez and sixth starter Steven Wright were already expected to start the year on the DL as they continue to recover from knee and shoulder surgeries, respectively.

While none of these seem like terribly long-term problems, it isn’t a good sign given that Pomeranz and Rodriguez have both dealt with multiple injury concerns in the past. David Price is also looking to return to health (and effectiveness) after a 2017 season marred by elbow problems. With Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez currently representing Boston’s top starting pitching depth options, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Sox make a signing later this spring or even into April — especially should Pomeranz, Rodriguez or even Wright experience a setback. Some pretty significant names still remain in the free agent pitching market at this late stage. It’s also possible that starting pitching could be targeted as needed at the trade deadline.

Turning to the relief corps, Robby Scott is the only left-hander currently projected as a member of Boston’s Opening Day bullpen, with Roenis Elias and rookie Williams Jerez also representing southpaw options on the 40-man roster. Beyond that pair, 25-year-old Bobby Poyner has opened some eyes in camp, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne (via Twitter). The Sox didn’t make a particular push to add any relief help this winter given that they already have several pen options on hand, and while Elias could re-emerge after an injury-plagued 2017, left-handed relief could be another area to watch come the July trade deadline.

Between Moreland at first base and Martinez at DH, it remains to be seen how big a factor Ramirez will be this season, and the playing-time arrangement could make it difficult for Ramirez to reach the 497 plate appearances he requires for his $22MM option for 2019 to vest. Ramirez’s three years in Boston have seen him sandwich an excellent 2016 season in between disappointing performances in 2015 and 2017, so it’s hard to know what to really expect from the veteran slugger this season. New manager Alex Cora still sees Ramirez as a major part of the team’s lineup, and since Ramirez underwent shoulder surgery last October, it could be that his bat will reawaken now that he’s healthy. The odds are good, though, that the organization will not allow his option to vest even if he’s healthy and productive.

While many big-market teams looked to get under the $197MM luxury tax threshold this offseason, as the Red Sox did last year, Boston will once more sail over the tax line with just over $237MM in projected salary for 2018. Quite a bit of money will come off the books after the season (Ramirez if his option doesn’t vest, plus Pomeranz and Craig Kimbrel will be free agents), though several key players on the roster will absorb a lot of that freed-up money in the form of arbitration raises. While the Sox clearly have an internal budget, they haven’t shown much hesitation in spending heavily to remain competitive. Having recently re-set their tax rate, the Red Sox likely won’t weigh CBT considerations too heavily, though they are close to pushing their payroll high enough to trigger some additional penalties.

Overview

It was a pretty quiet winter overall for the Red Sox, as they didn’t really have too many glaring needs to fill on an already-deep roster. Cora’s hiring, a renewed focus on analytics, and better luck avoiding the injury bug could be all Boston needs to revive a lineup that had trouble hitting the ball out of the park last year, though obviously Martinez’s addition will greatly help in the thunder department. The other question is if the Sox did enough to keep pace in the division, as the back-to-back AL East champs now find themselves as underdogs against a Yankees team that became even more fearsome this winter.

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options. That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. I’ve included players on multiyear deals. This list was compiled through MLBTR’s sources when possible, but may be incomplete for a handful of teams. I’ll update the post as confirmed information comes in.

It may take some time for baseball fans to adjust to Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen in different uniforms, but the Giants are hoping that these two veteran stars can help erase the memory of an ugly 2017 campaign at AT&T Park.

Major League Signings

Tony Watson, RP: Two years, $9MM (includes a $2.5MM player option for 2020 that has a $500K buyout)

No team received less from its outfielders (to the tune of a cumulative 0.8 fWAR and -2.5 bWAR) in 2017 than the Giants, so it was no surprise that San Francisco was connected in rumors to just about every outfielder available in free agency or trade talks. The major prize ended up being McCutchen, as the longtime Pirates icon was acquired for a pair of notable-but-not-elite prospects (Kyle Crick and Bryan Reynolds), $500K in international bonus pool money and the Giants’ willingness to absorb $12.25MM of McCutchen’s $14.75MM salary in 2018.

McCutchen’s declining defensive numbers as a center fielder won’t be an issue, as the Giants have already announced that the former NL MVP will be the everyday right fielder. (Pittsburgh also intended to deploy McCutchen in right field last season before Starling Marte’s suspension forced McCutchen back into regular center field duty.) The position change should better suit McCutchen’s defensive skillset at this stage of his career, and his bat already made a nice rebound in 2017 after a very disappointing 2016 season. McCutchen is also scheduled to hit free agency next winter, so while the Giants gave up a significant amount for just one year of his services, the club also has the freedom to pursue a longer-term solution if it so chooses after the season.

The outfield depth chart received another boost in the form of Austin Jackson, coming off an outstanding (though quite possibly BABIP-fueled) 318 plate appearances for the Indians last season. Jackson is currently penciled in for the bulk of time in center field, though he could shift into a general fourth outfielder role if rookie Steven Duggar wins himself a roster spot in Spring Training. Denard Span, the Giants’ regular center fielder for the past two seasons, is no longer an option after being dealt to Tampa Bay (in a salary offset situation) as part of San Francisco’s other blockbuster deal of the offseason.

Longoria will look to stabilize a third base position that has become another problem area for the Giants, with former third baseman-of-the-future Christian Arroyo serving as the prospect centerpiece of the deal with the Rays. There are certainly some questions surrounding the Longoria trade, as we’ll cover later. The Giants will no doubt be happy if the veteran can at least replicate his 2017 performance (2.5 fWAR, 3.6 bWAR).

Of course, all of that took place against the backdrop of a tough balancing effort of making hefty roster upgrades while staying below the $197MM luxury tax threshold. With Longoria and McCutchen’s hefty salaries joining the ledger, the Giants found payroll space by unloading Span to the Rays, and also by trading Matt Moore and his $9.75MM to the Rangers.

Some more payroll creativity was required to sign southpaw Tony Watson, whose two-year deal only officially guarantees $9MM over three years (if he exercises a player option for the 2020 season) but also allows him to earn more than twice that number by reaching various incentive clauses. Watson is coming off a bit of a down year by his standards, though given the size of other reliever contracts on the open market this year, he may prove to be a nice bargain for the Giants. Ultimately, like many teams this offseason, the Giants weren’t too active in free agency, only making modest agreements with Watson, Jackson, and backup catcher Nick Hundley.

Notable moves also took place off the field in San Francisco. President of baseball operations Brian Sabean is again taking more of a hands-on role in the front office’s day-to-day moves, while several long-time coaches were shifted either to new coaching duties or into front office roles.

Questions Remaining

Of all the outfielders linked to the Giants, the most notable was Giancarlo Stanton, and the Giants were deep in talks with the Marlins about a trade that would’ve seen the Giants reportedly covering some or all of the $295MM on Stanton’s contract. While both the Giants and Cardinals submitted offers to Miami’s liking, however, Stanton wasn’t willing to waive his no-trade protection to join either team, eventually approving a deal to the Yankees.

Needless to say, adding Stanton would’ve completely changed the Giants’ plans. The club would’ve had less salary flexibility and might well have abandoned its plan to get under the competitive balance tax entirely. While one can certainly argue that McCutchen and Longoria at two positions make for more of a help than Stanton at one position, a Giants team with Stanton in right field plus some prospects (Arroyo, Crick, etc.) still bolstering an already-thin farm system and a willingness to exceed the luxury tax threshold might’ve been better positioned to address remaining needs. Rather than add Longoria for the long term and McCutchen for the short term, would the Giants have been better off with Stanton as the long-term asset and a third baseman like Todd Frazier (who only found a two-year deal with the Mets) as a shorter-term answer? That was certainly the team’s preference, but it wasn’t able to convince the superstar to come to San Francisco.

On the other hand, that aforementioned lack of prospect depth could’ve also been the reason why the Giants weren’t able to swing deals for other notable outfielders on the market, like Christian Yelich or Marcell Ozuna. The Giants also weren’t keen on the idea of giving up a draft pick as compensation for signing a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, such as Lorenzo Cain (who could’ve solved the center field hole), given the organization’s strong placement in the 2018 draft. Given both of these factors, the McCutchen trade looks like a solid move for San Francisco, assuming that 2016 truly was just an aberration for McCutchen.

Longoria’s situation, though, is a bit more complicated. His 2017 season, which ended with a .261/.313/.424 slash line, represented the first campaign in which he graded a below-average run creator (96) in Fangraphs’ wRC+ metric. He also hit more grounders and fewer fly balls than any other season in his ten-year career. While still a durable player and a good defender, Longoria could very well be on the decline as he enters his age-32 season. Though the Rays added some money in the trade, the Giants still owe Longoria $73.5MM over the next five seasons, making him yet another high-priced veteran on the San Francisco roster who is looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2017. He is something of an odd fit on a team that entered the winter looking to theoretically get younger and cheaper, though the Giants have traditionally been open to adding experienced players and, if anything, feel veteran players may be underrated in the current baseball marketplace.

Though outfield defense was a priority for the team, the planned alignment of McCutchen in right field, Jackson in center and Hunter Pence in left represents only a moderate improvement; while McCutchen should help in right, Jackson’s defensive metrics as a center fielder have been at best mixed for several years. Duggar is widely regarded as a strong defender and he has some strong hitting and on-base numbers in the minors, though he hasn’t had much Triple-A (or even Double-A) playing time. A jump to the big leagues might be a reach unless the Giants are willing to accept Duggar as strictly a glove-only player in the early going. Gorkys Hernandez, Austin Slater, or minor league signing Gregor Blanco could also see time in center field, though none are optimal options. Presumably, McCutchen could get the occasional start in a pinch.

Moore suffered through a very rough 2017 season, so the Giants may have felt the $9.75MM ticketed for the left-hander was better utilized elsewhere rather than hoping that Moore could rebound. His departure, however, leaves the team with a lot of inexperienced pitchers battling for two rotation spots rather than one. Ty Blach and Chris Stratton are the favorites to be the fourth and fifth starters, with rookies Tyler Beede, Andrew Suarez, Tyler Herb, Joan Gregorio also in the mix, and veterans Derek Holland and Chris Heston in camp on minor league contracts.

Were the Giants not already so close to the $197MM tax threshold, another veteran starter (even a mid-tier name, not of the Jake Arrieta/Lance Lynn/Alex Cobb class) would be a big help, though a price fit simply doesn’t seem possible unless the Giants could move salary elsewhere. With this payroll crunch in mind, the Giants were surely disappointed to fall short in their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, as San Francisco was one of seven finalists for the Japanese two-way star before he eventually signed with the Angels.

Watson ended up being the only significant addition to a bullpen that struggled overall last year, though a healthy Mark Melancon would go a long way towards improving matters. The plethora of young starters that miss out on the rotation battle could also provide some further depth behind Melancon, Watson, Sam Dyson, Hunter Strickland, Cory Gearrin, and Steven Okert. Rule 5 draft pick Julian Fernandez is also in the mix but a total wild card, as he has never pitched above the A-ball level. Veteran lefty Will Smith is targeted to return in May or June after undergoing Tommy John surgery almost a year ago.

Overview

While the Giants are clearly planning to contend in 2018, this season could also serve as something of a bridge year for the franchise. Come next winter, the Giants will have McCutchen and Pence off the books, be free of a recurring luxury tax penalty, and be positioned exceed the threshold in pursuit of expensive free agents (such asBryce Harper?) or trade chips. By then, the club should also have more of an idea of what it has in younger talents like Blach, Stratton, and Duggar, or even more-established players like Joe Panik. The Giants may also have advanced further in extension talks with ace Madison Bumgarner. A total rebuild doesn’t seem likely even in the event of another 98-loss season, though the Giants would surely look to move some veterans at the trade deadline.

Despite this uncertainty, San Francisco still went ahead to further bolster its veteran core, and Longoria and McCutchen should provide quite a bit more value than Span and Moore did last season (or are likely to provide this season). The Giants have left themselves with very little luxury tax room to maneuver for upgrades at the trade deadline, though the team still has its upper crust of prospects — Heliot Ramos, Beede, Chris Shaw — to offer if a big acquisition is required.

Rather than the start of a decline period for a veteran team, 2017 could potentially be seen as simply a perfect storm of fluke injuries (especially Bumgarner’s) and subpar performances — if, at least, the team’s veterans can return to their 2016 form. Between McCutchen, Longoria, and the low-cost free agent signings, the Giants might have filled all the holes they need to fill, provided some of their younger players can step up.

As Opening Day draws closer, we’re beginning to see the unfortunate penalties for players who overestimated their markets at the offseason’s outset. A number of our top-50-ranked free agents have fallen well short of the expectations we had for them, including three players ranked in our top five (Masahiro Tanaka excluded) who’ve been guaranteed at least $35MM less than we predicted.

That group includes Mike Moustakas, who so far seems to be the abnormal offseason’s biggest victim. We thought “Moose” would receive a guarantee in the $85MM range, but he ended up settling for a contract with the Royals that’ll pay him just $6.5MM, including a buyout of a mutual option for 2019. Logan Morrison and Jonathan Lucroy have also signed deals that guarantee them that exact same amount, despite the fact that they were widely expected to earn far more money. It should be noted that Moustakas has $2.2MM in available incentives in 2018 based on plate appearances, while Morrison can earn an extra $1.5 MM in similar fashion and can increase the base value of his 2019 option (or even cause it to vest) based on his 2018 plate appearances. However, these are excruciatingly small consolation prizes compared to the money they hoped to earn at the start of the winter.

The biggest subject of the offseason of course, has been why it’s been so unusual. But one of the more obvious answers is that the league-wide home run surge has likely resulted in a league-wide devaluation of power. That would certainly explain cooler-than-expected demand for players like Moustakas and Morrison, both of whom slugged 38 homers last season but had notable flaws elsewhere in their game. That Lucroy’s power mysteriously evaporated entirely might have contributed to the evaporation of the market for his services.

Regardless, these players are all likely to provide excess value on their respective contracts. bWAR and fWAR generally agree on their values in relation to replacement level last season; Moustakas was worth somewhere around 2 WAR, Morrison close to 3.5 WAR, and Lucroy about 1 WAR. And even though Lucroy rated the least valuable of the three, it’s worth noting that he plays a premium position and been an immensely valuable player in the past (both offensively and defensively). Even a modest bounceback from the outgoing Rockies catcher could result in a solid season for the A’s.

Below are the Steamer and ZiPS projections for these players, taken from Fangraphs.com. As with any projections, they should be taken with a grain of salt.

The Royals front office is in an interesting spot as it attempts to engineer a soft landing after multiple seasons of contention from a roster whose core is no longer fully intact. Despite the obvious challenges, GM Dayton Moore says he’s as optimistic as ever about the organization’s outlook.

Perhaps no single player embodies that hope and this team’s unique approach more than infielder Whit Merrifield, a late-bloomer who quietly became one of the team’s best players. Given their current stance, the Royals shouldn’t be opposed to considering long-term deals with key players. But is Merrifield a worthwhile target?

As is often the case for teams that push for a World Series in — in this case, successfully — there’s a dent to the future outlook. That frequently shows up in the form of lost prospects, missed opportunities to swap veterans for younger talent, and ongoing commitments to expensive, older veterans. In this case, Alex Gordon and Ian Kennedy stand out as underperforming contracts.

At the same time, the Kansas City organization does have some valuable deals on the books — namely, the extensions agreed to with lefty Danny Duffy and catcher Salvador Perez. There’s still potential for those agreements to sour, but at present they seem to represent appealing commitments. And they both run through 2021. It’s worth remembering, too, that the club pursued star first baseman Eric Hosmer. Though it’s clear the Royals will be increasingly attentive to drawing down salary commitments, they did not force deals for players such as Duffy, Perez, or even pending free-agent closer Kelvin Herrera this winter. While Kansas City did give up talent to move some salaries (see here and here), those swaps are nothing like the full-throated efforts we’ve seen some other clubs take after a downturn in fortunes.

Unlike some small-market organizations that find themselves in this general situation, then, the Royals do not appear to be pursuing a strip-down rebuild. The retention (to this point) of Herrera and the signing of Lucas Duda confirm that the club isn’t just punting in the hopes of securing favorable draft position. Trying to remain at least somewhat competitive while undergoing a roster transition comes with quite a different blend of risk and benefit from a “tanking” strategy — which brings us back around to Merrifield, who deserves some consideration as a potential extension target after compiling 3.9 rWAR and 3.1 fWAR in his first full MLB campaign.

In most cases, perhaps, a player who achieves that kind of value immediately upon reaching the majors would be a clear candidate for a long-term deal. Here, though, there’s no getting around the fact that Merrifield is already 29 years of age — older than Hosmer and just a smidge younger than Mike Moustakas. With just 1.101 years of MLB service to his credit, though, he won’t quality for arbitration until 2020 and can’t reach the open market until 2023, when he’ll be entering his age-34 season.

Given that they already control him until he’s 33, the Royals need not be in any rush to secure Merrifield for the long haul. At the same time, though, the club ought to have ample leverage, so perhaps we shouldn’t immediately dismiss the merits of exploring a deal. While picking up control over Merrifield’s earliest-possible free agent campaigns might be a nice feather in the cap, the potential value for the team lies mostly in locking in future salaries at an appealing rate while announcing the presence of a new core piece to go with Duffy and Perez.

Despite his late ascension to the majors, Merrifield showed good promise in a half-season of time in 2016, with decent hitting output along with high-end glovework and baserunning. Though he took a slight step back in the latter two areas on a rate basis last year, at least by the numbers we have to work with, Merrifield also took a step forward with the bat. His low walk rate (4.6% in 2017) means he’ll probably never be an OBP monster, but he made plenty of contact (14.0% strikeout rate), showed a sudden power outburst (19 home runs, .172 isolated slugging), and produced overall at about five percent better than league average. It doesn’t hurt that Merrifield can steal a bag, having recorded 34 swipes in his first full season in the big leagues.

There’s some risk here, to be sure. Merrifield needs to hit at a high average to maintain a palatable on-base percentage. And he’s no sure thing to keep up the power surge — he never maintained an ISO that high over a full minor-league season — though perhaps Merrifield is one of those players who has benefited from a bouncier baseball. As Eno Sarris of The Athletic recently explained (subscription link), history suggests that Merrifield likely won’t have more than a few more quality seasons before the aging curve catches him.

In the aggregate, though, there’s good reason to believe that Merrifield will at least continue to profile as an above-average regular for some time. His athleticism and background — he has plenty of professional time at second, third, and the corner outfield, and the team is trying him in center this spring — suggests he could move around the diamond as the team’s needs change, providing value even if he checks back into a reserve role.

Merrifield may not be a face-of-the-franchise type, but taking an opportunity to lock in value on a player of his ilk is just the kind of move that can pay dividends for an organization that is already thinking about how it will compile a winning roster in the near future. To be sure, it would be a somewhat novel contract to negotiate. While players with non-star profiles and equally thin track records (and service time tallies) have certainly agreed to terms in the past — e.g., Juan Lagares (4 years, $23MM) and pre-breakout Jose Altuve (4 years, $12.5MM) — they were significantly younger. Perhaps the Yan Gomes contract, a six-year, $23MM pact that included two options at the end, would be a closer fit, but even he was just 26 years of age at signing.

There are certainly some light shades of Ben Zobrist here, though it’s a stretch to draw any strong comparisons. As a quality player who can move around the diamond, Merrifield could be viewed as a much lesser version of the renowned utilityman, who commanded only a $18MM guarantee in an extension with the Rays back in 2010. Zobrist was 28 at the time but was already a Super Two. Of course, that deal was a ridiculous bargain; on the other hand, there’s nothing to suggest Merrifield will ever approach Zobrist in overall value.

In truth, the Zobrist pact is tough to use as a comp for any purposes because it was so unique. The same might hold for a hypothetical Merrifield extension. My own thought is that Merrifield’s age/service status ought to make him much more amenable to taking a discount on his anticipated future earnings while also leaving the Royals with less incentive to give value for the right to control any prospective free-agent campaigns than they would for a more youthful player. (To be clear, that’s all speculation based on my outside observation of the circumstances.) Perhaps, then, the sides could explore a contract that includes a relatively limited overall guarantee for most or all of Merrifield’s pre-arb and arb-eligible seasons, with a range of possible options scenarios to be considered.

At what price might this become attractive for the Royals? Merrifield is going to earn just over the league minimum for 2018 and 2019. His salary for the ensuing three campaigns will depend upon what he does in the meantime, of course, but there are some comps that give some idea of what Merrifield could earn if he continues playing at the same general level. Joe Panik just agreed to a $3.45MM first-year arb salary, for instance, while DJ LeMahieu started with $3.0MM and has taken down a total of $16.3MM in his three seasons of arbitration.

Even if we peg Merrifield’s anticipated earnings through 2022 in the realm of $16MM or so — give or take a few million – that doesn’t mean the Royals should be willing to spend that much on an extension. Pre-committing isn’t necessary unless there’s some benefit to the club, yet the rights to free-agent years won’t have that much value for an older, non-star performer. Perhaps the Royals would promise Merrifield something in the realm of his likely arb earnings if he agrees to very low prices on two option years. Or maybe the team will pursue a discount on the arb seasons if the contract includes an option or two at higher prices (such that they likely won’t be exercised unless Merrifield succeeds beyond expectations, in which case he’d be rewarded). The most interesting scenario, though, may be a deal that only locks the sides in through the first two seasons of arbitration while leaving team options for the third arb year, at a discounted rate, along with one or two would-be free-agent years. That might give the late bloomer the security he needs while affording the team an appropriate blend of protection and expected cost savings.

To reiterate: there’s no urgency here and likely not a huge amount of upside to be captured for K.C. But if this organization really does intend to remain competitive in the relatively near future while steadily building up a new core, it’ll require a whole lot of incremental moves that add value. Exploring a new deal with Merrifield offers just that sort of potential opportunity, but only in the right circumstances.