Tropical cyclone 19S is located about 774 NM northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), is expected to track poleward over the next 48 to 72 hours.

Currently, TC 19S is tracking slowly northwestward into a very conducive environment. This is expected to sustain the convective structure with low wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

TC Fantala is expected to slowly weaken as the tropical cyclone passes over cooler water, close to its previous track, during the next 36 hours…and as wind shear increases slightly thereafter.

Meanwhile, a deep layer ridge of high pressure is expected to form over Madagascar, and shift the track westward.

Weather models are in good agreement regarding the overall forecast scenario of a poleward followed by a westward track. However, there’s a significant spread in the location of the westward turn, and orientation of the subsequent track.

The center of Fantala’s strongest winds are expected to stay north of Madagascar, though the northern parts of the island could see bands of rain and gusty winds. Additionally, high surf will be pounding the coasts of northern Madagascar locally, making for very dangerous conditions for mariners!

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #16 were 105 knots with gusts of 130 knots

Last October (2015), Patricia came ashore in Mexico with the strongest hurricane winds ever recorded on Earth, at over 200 miles per hour. Then, in February (2016), Winston broke the wind speed record for the southwest Pacific Ocean basin, when it devastated one of Fiji’s main islands with winds topping 180 miles per hour. On Monday, it was TC Fantala’s turn to break that record for the Indian Ocean basin, as it ominously churned just off Madagascar’s northern coast, peaking at 175 miles per hour. [Credit: Washington Post]

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

In addition, there’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 90P, circled in red above…which has a high chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 305 NM west of Pago Pago, American Samoa, here’s asatellite image…and a near real time wind profile – and what the computer models are showingAccording to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation center, with limited central convection. Microwave imagery showed a well defined center, with the associated limited convection wrapping along the southern and western peripheries.Environmental analysis indicates marginal, although improving conditions, with 10-15 knot wind shear…and an eastward outflow channel on the poleward side.

Global models show the disturbance tracking northwestward into a marginally better wind shear environment…and with a corresponding slow consolidation. Sea surface temperatures are conducive for further development.Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high

Information from the NWS in American Samoa:

.SHORT TERM…

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT…THERE IS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
17F SOUTHWEST OF TUTUILA. TD17F IS NOT A THREAT TO THE
TERRITORY FOR THE SHORT TERM, AS IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT TURNS AND MOVES EAST…BECOMING
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM. FOR
NOW…THE ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THAT IS
CURRENTLY MAINTAINING WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERRITORY DURING
THIS FLAG DAY CELEBRATION, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME PERIODS
OF FAIR WEATHER FOR TIMES WHERE THE BULK OF MOISTURE MOVES OVER
SURROUNDING WATERS. HOWEVER…THOSE FAIR PERIODS ARE VERY BRIEF AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR AMERICAN SAMOA.

.LONG TERM…

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY…AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED…TD17F IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS BY MIDWEEK. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW TD17F INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SAMOAN ISLANDS LATER IN THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE BOTH IN
AGREEMENT WITH TD17F MOVING OVER THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER…THEY
DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIME OF ARRIVAL…WHERE GFS SHOWS TD17F
REACHING THE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY…WHEREAS ECMWF SHOWS IT ARRIVING BY
SATURDAY. CURRENTLY…MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW TD17F REACHING STORM
FORCED WINDS WHEN IT REACHES THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. HENCE…WILL ADJUST
FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG TERM.

Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The Central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2016. Here’s the2015 hurricane season summary

North Arabian Sea

As I mentioned when we met recently at BNPB HQ Jakarta, I want to extend my appreciation to you, to your colleagues at PDC, and to USAID/OFDA for your hard work and dedication – and for your tangible results – in building capabilities and capacities for disaster risk reduction in Indonesia, especially in the area of hazard monitoring and early warning.

Daniel B. Whitley

Acting Associate Administrator, Foreign Agricultural Service (2017)

"On behalf of USDA's Foreign Agricultural Services, I would like to express my appreciation and full support of the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) for its essential contributions...with data and support...we've been able to improve our global agricultural production and disaster assessment analyses, products, and decision outcomes."

Harlan V. Hale

Regional Advisor, USAID/DCHA/OFDA/EAP

"From a disaster management perspective, these agencies [PDC, HOT, PetaBencana.id] have combined their skills, have worked well together, and have created something that is really innovative, useful, and can actually improve both the disaster response by the government and citizen's participation in it as well."

“Keep up the good work. I'm using EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) in Texas to monitor Hurricane Harvey.”

Eric Yarrell

Lieutenant Colonel, United States Air Force, JTF-Bravo (2017)

"JTF-Bravo sincerely appreciated the HADR decision-support information provided by the Pacific Disaster Center during Hurricane Irma response… has been both timely and valuable support of current operations."

Susan Cruz

Director, Office of Civil Defense (2015)

"We are very appreciative of your support to our country."

Augusto Moreno O'Phelan

Director General for Policy and Strategy, Ministry of Defense, Peru (2016)

"Many thanks for your important information about the ongoing outbreak of Zika virus in the Americas."

"…thank you all for the assistance you have rendered on so many occasions to The BNGISC but more importantly to The Bahamas."

Claudia Mateo

President, Republica Domincana Comisión Nacional de Energía

"Thank you for being aware of our situation and for the sending of images for analysis."

William I. Clark

Humanitarian Assistance Division Chief, U.S. SOUTHCOM (2017)

Our success during response efforts is directly related to PDC's contribution. The set of tools offered by your decision support system (DisasterAWARE), the large amount of data, the modeling and assessments, and skill set of your staff are unique. They provide my team with great situational awareness in a timely manner, enabling rapid and informed decision making in critical periods."

Don Price

Disaster Management Advisor, U.S. Forest Service, Myanmar (2017)

"The big floods in Southern China are causing some real problems for Vietnam and Myanmar and DMRS/EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) is the best visualization for this regional flood situation."

Ana Ake

Ministry of Information and Communications, Kingdom of Tonga (2017)

"I was first introduced to EMOPS (DisasterAWARE)...during a HA/DR training in Auckland this year. I've worked with several tools and it is obvious that EMOPS is the only sustainable tool that is available and is openly available."

Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho

Head of Data, Information, and Public Relations, BNPB (2017)

"Thank you very much for your support in Mt Agung eruption. Very useful to us."

"[I] wanted to pass along that the reports that PDC is generating are succinct and extremely informative. I've passed along to other colleagues in the HQs staff and other COCOMs to peak their interest. Well done!"

Christopher Vaughan

FEMA National Headquarters Geospatial Information Officer (2015)

"My sincerest thanks to the PDC team during this event. [Tropical Cyclone Dolphin] Your professionalism and dedication to the mission is to be commended. I'm sure we will have plenty to discuss/improve upon in the weeks to follow. Thanks again for all the support. Great job team."

USDA Foreign Agriculture Service officer

USDA (2016)

"Your suggestion that we look at PDC content and capabilities has really paid off. We partnered with them, and are ingesting their global disaster feeds into [Global Agricultural & Disaster Assessment System] GADAS. The addition of a couple of our own applications to quickly delineate impacted areas and extract agricultural acreage and population has proved quite valuable."

Jeremy K. Delancy

Senior Assistant Secretary, Ministry of Social Services & Community Development, Commonwealth of The Bahamas (2016)

"I wanted [PDC] to know that I used DisasterAWARE during Hurricane Joaquin and it performed admirably. Some further training will be needed for us to use it to its full capabilities. One of the persons who was quite impressed is Chief Meteorological Officer, Mr. Arnold King."

"I knew of 'InAWARE' and I am impressed by its capabilities. Information sharing in the humanitarian context is still a big challenge (especially in ASEAN), and the efforts you are putting to close this gap are highly appreciated, and indeed highly useful for the whole humanitarian community."

Kenta Hamasaki

The Consulate General of Japan, Honolulu, HI (2016)

"Aloha Julie. Hello. After the registration [for DisasterAWARE], I started to receive warnings such as Typhoon Meranti. That data contains necessary info and is so graphic that it's easy to know at a glance how the impact is. This is very important for our duties. Thank you again."

Jonathan Colwell

Goespatial Coordinator, DHS-FEMA Region 9 (2016)

"EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) made my day so much easier while monitoring [Tropical Cyclone] AMOS. Data that I thought I'd spend a good part of the morning digging for was available, as were the tools to draw polygons and annotate and meet the requirement."

"I work for the Virginia DOT as an emergency planner. I would like to be added to your distribution list for awareness products. I followed work during Hurricane Mathew and would like to avail our organization of your great products."

Jesse Rozelle

Program Manager, Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Program, FEMA (2017)

"Aloha PDC team: I wanted to express my sincere gratitude for all of your support during Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The modeling and risk assessment support you have provided to FEMA has been incredibly helpful for our response efforts and our emergency management partners. I'm looking forward to a continued partnership."

PDC's support in the SOUTHCOM region and its commitment to promote public safety were unfailing during the Rio Olympics. [DisasterAWARE] greatly enhanced our situational awareness and offered an abundance of useful data and safety monitoring information."

Marcus Elten

United Nations OCHA (2016)

"I was impressed with how quickly you guys developed situational awareness products...quite impressed with your team's work."

Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho

Head of Data, Information, and Public Relations for Indonesia's National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB