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FXUS65 KPUB 030619
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016
...Light snow winding down Tonight...
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating
south to southwest flow aloft across the state, with a broad upper
trough translating across the intermountain west through the Great
Basin and into the Desert SW, with an upper low spinning across
southwestern Arizona at this time. Regional radars indicating
scattered echoes across the state, with the best coverage over and
near the higher terrain, though are starting to see more echoes
across northeastern New Mexico moving across the far southeast
plains at this time. Looking at area webcams and observations,
snowfall has been generally light areawide, with the best
accumulations of a few inches over and near the higher terrain.
Tonight...Light overrunning precipitation will remain possible
areawide through the evening, with precipitation then winding from
west to east later tonight, as flow aloft becomes west to northwest
with passing broad upper trough. Best chances of precipitation
remains over and near the higher terrain through the evening, with
the focus shifting out across the far southeast plains later tonight
into early Saturday morning. Again, not expecting a whole a lot of
precipitation, with 1 or 2 inches of snow possible over the mountain
areas, and generally less than an inch across the lower elevations.
Could see some patchy areas of fog across the area tonight until
trough axis moves across the area. Clouds to play havoc with
overnight lows, and have kept the warmest readings across the far se
plains.
Saturday...Moderate northwest flow aloft progged across the area
behind the passing trough, keeping dry weather in place through out
the day, though can not rule out a few flurries across the central
mountains through the morning. Will see breezy conditions across the
higher terrain with temperatures expected to be at or slightly
warmer than today, though with more sunshine, will likely feel
warmer than the actual temperature.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016
Dry weather and moderating temperatures expected for Sunday and
Monday as the flow aloft becomes zonal ahead of the next Pacific
system. H7 temperatures warm back up to +2 to +4C across the
eastern half of the area which should help temperatures rebound
back into the 50s across the lower elevations on Monday.
Front drops in late Monday afternoon/Monday night as first wave
passes across the northern U.S rockies. More energy dropping into
the Pacific northwest and heads towards CO on Tuesday. Upglide
over the front on Tuesday with incoming jet and approaching upper
level trof should help trigger snow across central and northern
CO during the day...with the central mountains and Pikes Peak
region starting to see snow ramp up during the afternoon. 12z runs
are more progressive and farther north with the passage of the
trof as it moves across CO Tues night which results in only a
light snow event for most of the area during this period.
Significantly colder weather will spread in particularly on
Wednesday with temperatures only topping out in the 20s across the
lower elevations. ECMWF...is not all that different with the
track...but instead drops more energy down in northwest flow for
Wednesday night suggesting a colder surge of arctic air into the
southeast plains...and a more prolonged light snow event for the
eastern mts/plains into Wednesday. Again...amounts do not look
all that heavy and snow to liquid ratios will be high so moisture
content of the snow will be low. Given we are bound to see more
changes in the track and strength of the system kept forecast changes
minimal. Given the high confidence that colder air will be moving
in, have nudged temperatures downward...and given the more
northward track of this system, shaded pops down for the southern
portions of the southeast plains.
System exits to the east with warmer temperatures returning by
next Friday. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1114 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016
Other than relatively brief periods of low clouds and fog/MVFR
conditions at the KALS...KCOS and KPUB taf sites into
tonight...anticipate that VFR conditions should be
noted...especially after 14Z Saturday at the KALS...KCOS and KPUB
taf sites as an upper disturbance departs southern Colorado.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$