As the light on the hill dims, history favours Gillard

David Day

WITH the latest Newspoll continuing to show a dire result for the Labor Party, it is no surprise that the idea of replacing Julia Gillard as prime minister is causing political ripples once again. And the idea certainly needs to be considered by her parliamentary colleagues and party officials.

After all, preparing the party for the next election is something that properly occupies the minds of Labor MPs and organisers. Whatever their personal loyalties, it is their job to consider who would be best placed to give Labor the greatest chance of victory or, perhaps more importantly, the best chance of avoiding a total wipeout.

That wipeout may be unavoidable. Far from being the whole cause of Labor's present position, it is clear that Julia Gillard is nonetheless a large part of it. She has had numerous chances to lift her approval rating, and that of the party, and has proved unable to take advantage of any opportunity. She and the party are stuck in nowhere land. And they may remain there.

Although commentators might call for a quick changeover to Kevin Rudd, the mechanics of doing so are considerable. For one thing, a quick changeover engineered by the so-called ''numbers men'' is likely to cause the same sort of public resentment towards a successor that has dogged Julia Gillard since she and her backers did precisely that to Kevin Rudd.

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Moreover, Julia Gillard has fortified her position and will be difficult to dislodge. By getting a bevy of senior ministers to support her with unequivocal public statements during the challenge that Kevin Rudd mounted in February, she locked their political fate to hers.

It was reminiscent of John Howard seeing off Peter Costello, with Julia Gillard convincing her supporters to put her political survival as prime minister above that of the party's survival at the election. Whether the rest of the caucus is equally prepared to commit political harakiri remains to be seen.

There has already been some shift of caucus sentiment since February, as nervous MPs face the prospect of political oblivion. But they face an uphill battle, if history is any guide. The Labor Party is usually loath to depose its leaders. Although, as Kevin Rudd well knows, there have been exceptions.

In 1915, another Queensland prime minister, Andrew Fisher, was effectively deposed by Billy Hughes. Fisher had won a resounding victory for Labor in 1914, but was nonetheless pressured for nearly a year by Hughes to hand over power. Fisher's ill-health and the attraction of a lucrative job in London changed his mind without any blood-letting.

In 1945, prime minister John Curtin was allowed to see out his dying days in the Lodge, rather than being encouraged to resign after having a serious heart attack in 1944. Although the business of government was hampered, nobody was prepared to tap Curtin on the shoulder for the good of the party and the nation. Perhaps more importantly, Curtin apparently never thought to hand over power to his frustrated treasurer, Ben Chifley.

Ironically, Chifley then held tenaciously onto the Labor leadership after he had his own heart attack in 1950. Although losing the 1949 election, he retained the overwhelming approval of Australians as Labor leader. Despite his medical condition, Chifley fought the 1951 election and was re-elected unanimously as opposition leader, only to die from another heart attack just days later.

Gough Whitlam was also allowed to remain as Labor leader in a vain attempt to redeem himself in the eyes of voters after his dismissal and subsequent electoral thrashing in 1975. He was challenged for the leadership in 1977 by Bill Hayden, only to have caucus give him a narrow victory. The weakened leader then led the party to another humiliating electoral loss later that year.

The caucus was not so forgiving of Hayden, who was forced by his colleagues to resign as Labor leader in favour of the more popular Bob Hawke in 1983. Although Hayden would complain that a drover's dog could have won the 1983 election, the numbers men had made an astute choice with Hawke, who proved a good leader.

Caucus repaid Hawke's political success with sufficient loyalty to ensure that the first challenge to his leadership from Paul Keating was defeated. However, with Keating on the backbenches acting as a lightning rod for disaffection and threatening the survival of the government, Hawke could not count on sufficient loyalty to see off a second challenge.

Labor history, and the relative security of her position, will give some encouragement to Julia Gillard as she tries to retain the trappings of power. However, although the caucus has often been hesitant about moving against its leader, regardless of their poor polling or indifferent health, she should not be complacent. As Fisher, Hayden and Hawke discovered to their cost, political loyalty can quickly disappear. After all, nobody likes to be a passenger on a train that is heading over a cliff.

David Day is an Honorary Associate in the History Program at La Trobe University and the biographer of Andrew Fisher, John Curtin and Ben Chifley.

62 comments

I hope Gillard takes Labor to the election as i will gain great satisfaction watching her get thrown out of office. Labor is facing an electoral mauling anyway, starting from when they shafted the elected PM, and continuing with their dreadful policies and policy backflips. Changing leader now is not an option as it will only infuriate voters even more. The captain should go down with the sinking ship....

Commenter

liklik

Location

sydney

Date and time

July 27, 2012, 8:10AM

As should the whinging and moaning passengers who have never stopped whingeing and moaning since the crew were put in place.

Commenter

Lesm

Location

Balmain

Date and time

July 27, 2012, 8:42AM

Lesm, and why wouldn't the passengers complain when they are not getting what they paid for, the crew don't know port from starboard, and the ship they are on is headed straight for an iceberg? Oh, and i have a car to sell you which breaks down every now and then but no worries, i'm sure you won't complain?

Commenter

liklik

Location

sydney

Date and time

July 27, 2012, 8:55AM

lilik.I'd like to correct you about the elected PM.We donot and never have popularly elected the PM.Members of Parliament get voted in and the leader becomes PM or Opposition Leader.I've seen afew similar comments like yours.

Commenter

politixjunkie

Location

Brunswick West

Date and time

July 27, 2012, 9:23AM

Voters can't stand her. Labor should put in a new generation team, jumping past Julia, Swan and Rudd. Combet for leader, as he will still be young enough to be PM in 6 years. But a competent and articulate treasurer is just as important. Maybe Shorten for a start and see how he goes?

Commenter

Dumb guy

Date and time

July 27, 2012, 9:24AM

Another day another comments list full of the same conservative trolls whinging, whining, and complaining their way through it. I'll watch with humour and probably alarm when their saviour, Abbott, a man apparently despised or disliked by 70% of Australians, gets the job and they change their biased tune to defending a debacle instead of attacking it.Cos Labor/Liberal they're pretty much the same to me.It's about power and making the other side look bad.The recent refusal to help the disabled proves it.Appalling behaviour by supposed leaders.Pffffttttt!!!!Can we bring this 3 year election campaign to an end so I can vote informal.

Commenter

MK

Location

Melb

Date and time

July 27, 2012, 9:32AM

@liklik When it comes to talking about the captain of the ship you need to talk about the pirates who tried to scuttle the ship at every chance. It wan't the government who stuffed up the pink bats.....it was businesses trying to make a killing in profits & ended up killing their employees. It was not government who stuffed up the stimulus.....it was businesses wanting to rip off the system by charginbg too much to build school infrastructures. It was not the government who who stuffed up the solar sheme....it was again businesses that ripped off the system. Blaming the government for these & many other so called stuff ups is like blaming the parents at a party because the kids came in, got greedy & consumed everything in sight. So to say you can't wait for the next election to throw out this government is scary because you are giving power over to the prirates that really stuffed things up in the first place.

Commenter

Bazza

Date and time

July 27, 2012, 9:34AM

politixjunkie, the PM is elected by the party but still elected, and the people are made well aware who the party intends to elect prior to the election, and so that has an effect on how some of the electorate will vote. There was no need for a correction.

Commenter

liklik

Location

sydney

Date and time

July 27, 2012, 9:34AM

MK, and the difference with your post????At least you are voting informal, which ultimately will assist Tony Abbott, unless you normally vote Liberal, but i'm guessing you don't.

Commenter

liklik

Location

sydney

Date and time

July 27, 2012, 9:44AM

Bazza, i hope you don't have children. It is a parent's responsibility to put boundaries in place so that children don't consume everything in sight. Likewise it is a Government's responsibility to ensure good governance of any of the policies they implement. You know simple things like the licencing of batts installers and safety guidelines so that 4 young men don't needlessly lose their lives because they went to work.