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If aid saves the lives of millions of poor infants, or mothers in childbirth, at roughly the same rate a country can industrialize, then we’ll see an increase in the number of poor people at about the same rate that we increase GDP per person. Unless aid is also spurring faster industrial growth, the growth figures essentially won’t change. The things that aid does well–increasing primary education, saving lives, and leading to a demographic transition (essentially lower population growth–may reasonably take a generation or two to impact industry.

Interesting, if rather simplistic, analysis. It leaves out some rather important factors though,such as- war, despotism, corruption and general political ineptitude. Factors which have been well documented eg: here, here, here and here. Although not everyone agrees.