Goldman Sachs bets on Abe to boost Japanese economy

Goldman Sachs Group Inc is buying shares of Japanese exporters and banks as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s new government promises to do more to curb deflation and weaken the yen.

The investment bank’s asset management unit in Japan is buying shares of the nation’s machinery and electronics exporters, financial firms and electricity producers, according to Hiroyuki Ito, Tokyo-based head of equity investment at Goldman Sachs Asset Management Co, which oversees about US$716 billion globally.

Goldman Sachs started increasing its holdings in October in anticipation that elections would be called, he said. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) took power following the Dec. 16 poll.

Abe said his government’s top priority is to revive an economy that last quarter fell into its fifth technical recession in 15 years. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average has jumped nearly 20 percent since Nov. 14, when the previous government said it would hold a general election. The index has risen the most among the world’s 10 largest markets this quarter.

“Japan finally has a catalyst for the stock market to rise,” Ito said in an interview on Wednesday. “The new government has an understanding of the impending danger and a sense of urgency about boosting the Japanese economy. We’re finally going to see an end to Japan’s deflation and a strong yen.”

Ito declined to discuss individual stocks.

The Goldman Sachs Japan Equity Fund Auto Reinvest Ushiwakamaru fund, managed by Ito and one of firm’s biggest Japan-based equity funds, has returned 11 percent in the past month, beating 86 percent of its peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The fund’s biggest holdings are banks, carmakers, wholesalers and trading companies, the data show.

The TOPIX, the broadest measure of Japanese stocks, gained 0.7 percent yesterday to close the year at its highest level since March. The gauge rose 17 percent this quarter, pushing its yearly advance to 18 percent, its best gain since 2005. Brokerages, real estate, consumer lenders and automakers posted the biggest annual increases among the Topix’s 33 industry groups.

Japan’s currency slid yesterday to its lowest level against the US dollar since August 2010 as the new government champions fiscal and monetary stimulus, along with a weaker exchange rate. The LDP and its New Komeito Party coalition partner agreed on a 2 percent target for inflation, signaling increased pressure on the Bank of Japan to add to its asset purchases.

“We’re bullish on Japanese stocks next year and the basis for that is the currency,” Ito said. “The yen’s strength has really hurt Japanese industry, but that trend has ended. The government has made its message very clear: They will be rigorous in boosting the economy.”

Japanese shares have a history of disappointing. The Nikkei 225 has fallen in four of the previous five years. Its 23 percent advance this year leaves it 1.4 percent below its closing price at the end of 2009. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained more than 26 percent since then.

Ito is also positive on Japan’s financial sector. Shares in banks and brokerages have surged in the past month on optimism that reflation will boost the value of assets, increase loan demand and appetite for risk as people become more confident.

The TOPIX Securities Index, which tracks brokerages such as Nomura Holdings Inc and Daiwa Securities Group Inc, rose 38 percent this month, its best monthly performance since March 1986 and the biggest increase among the TOPIX industry groups.