TY - JOUR
AU - Long,Genia
AU - Cutler,David
AU - Berndt,Ernst R.
AU - Royer,Jimmy
AU - Fournier,Andrée-Anne
AU - Sasser,Alicia
AU - Cremieux,Pierre
TI - The Impact of Antihypertensive Drugs on the Number and Risk of Death, Stroke and Myocardial Infarction in the United States
JF - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL - No. 12096
PY - 2006
Y2 - March 2006
DO - 10.3386/w12096
UR - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12096
L1 - http://www.nber.org/papers/w12096.pdf
N1 - Author contact info:
Genia Long
David M. Cutler
Department of Economics
Harvard University
1875 Cambridge Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
Tel: 617/496-5216
Fax: 617/496-8951
E-Mail: dcutler@harvard.edu
Ernst R. Berndt
MIT Sloan School of Management
100 Main Street, E62-518
Cambridge, MA 02142
Tel: 617/253-2665
Fax: 617-227-0880
E-Mail: eberndt@mit.edu
Jimmy Royer
Andree-Anne Fournier
Alicia Sasser
E-Mail: alicia.sasser@bos.frb.org
Pierre Cremieux
AB - Estimating the value of medical innovation is a continual challenge. In this research, we quantify the impact of antihypertensive therapy on U.S. blood pressures, risk and number of heart attacks, strokes, and deaths. We also consider the potential for further improvements. We estimate the value of innovation using equations relating blood pressure to adverse outcomes from the Framingham Heart Study. Our results show that without antihypertensive therapy, 1999-2000 average blood pressure for the U.S. population age 40 plus would have been 10-13 percent higher. 86,000 excess premature deaths from cardiovascular disease (2001), and 833,000 hospital discharges for stroke and heart attacks (2002) would have occurred. Life expectancy would be 0.5 (men) and 0.4 (women) years lower. At guideline care, there would have been 89,000 fewer premature deaths (2001) and 420,000 fewer hospital discharges for stroke and heart attack (2002) than observed. Our analysis suggests that antihypertensive therapy has had a significant impact on cardiovascular health outcomes but that mortality gains would have been approximately twice as high if guideline care had been achieved for all.
ER -