Thai chicken prices have stabilised after last week's minor decline, but serious lack of chicks could have a major impact on local broiler production in early 2012.

Farm-gate prices of live birds have remained unchanged at THB37-40/kg throughout the week, after last week's marginal decline of THB1-2/kg.

However, due to severe shortage, the selling price of day-old chicks has gone up to THB20 a piece from THB14 each before Thailand's latest flooding in October and November.

Market analysis

Thailand needs 22-24 million chicks a week to sustain the current level of broiler production. With most integrators undergoing expansions to meet higher export orders, demand for broiler chicks could increase to around 26 million a week in the next six months, says Ekasit Konzu, general manager of Chaveevan Farm, which supplies day-old chicks to around 100 broiler farms in Chonburi province.

Ekasit said the recent flooding in Thailand had adversely affected egg production by grandparent stock, resulting in the current chick shortage. The problem has been compounded by increased demand from broiler farms trying to restock or expand production.

Before the flooding, the selling price of day-old chicks was THB14 apiece. Due to the current shortage, some hatcheries are selling day-old chicks at up to THB20 each.

Even top integrators are finding it hard to meet high chick demand. In Ratburi province, layers farmers complain that CP, Thailand's number one chick producer, has not been able to deliver their orders on time.

They even suspected that top integrators were deliberately limiting chick distribution to keep chicken prices from falling amid fears of an impending oversupply in the next few months.

Dr. Chaisaks Boonprasopthanachote, chief executive officer of the Thai Food Group, one of the country's leading livestock integrators, has expressed concern that the current rash of expansions among poultry producers following a year of high prices and profitability could lead to oversupply and price slump.

Big broiler producers, including Saha Farm, Cargill and GFPT, have on-going expansions that would increase their respective production capacities by tens of thousands of tonnes.

With such expansions, Dr. Chaisaks says, Thailand's weekly broiler output could swell to 28 million a week from 22-24 million tonnes at the moment.

High overseas demand is helping drive the current expansions among big broiler farmers. Thailand hopes to export 460,000 tonnes of cooked and uncooked chicken this year, 7% more than it did last year.