Multiple climate change models foresee future environmental pressures in the harsh Sahel region that could trigger the collapse of community coping mechanisms, mass displacement, and regional fragility. At the same time, no deterministic relationship between environment and insecurity is apparent. Political and economic circumstances display a stronger role in the region’s conflict dynamics. However, adjustments to development strategies to prepare for uncertainty, diversify livelihood opportunities, and include vulnerable communities in decisionmaking could simultaneously address climate change challenges and reduce conflict drivers.