Hurricane forecast team reviews influencing factors for 2013 Atlantic season

December 10th, 2012 in Earth / Earth Sciences

The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University today released its initial outlook for the 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season. For its December forecast only, the team relies on probabilities of key factors influencing the hurricane season rather than issuing a numerical forecast for the number of storms in this initial outlook.

The team will release the first forecast with predictions for the number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes expected for the Atlantic basin on April 10.

"We have been in an active era for Atlantic basintropical cyclones since 1995, and we expect positive Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) and strong thermohaline circulation (THC) conditions will continue," said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the forecast. "One of the big challenges for 2013 is whether or not El Nino will develop for the 2013 hurricane season. Since El Nino never fully developed in 2012, and we have since returned to neutral conditions, there is the possibility that an El Nino event will develop next year."