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Cnotes Monday's MLB Best Bets !

Arizona Diamondbacks Visit Los Angeles Dodgers

The NL West leaders look to move one step closer to clinching a spot in the postseason in MLB betting action on Monday night when the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium.

This clash at Chavez Ravine will get started at 10:10 p.m. (ET) with live television coverage available on FOX Sports Arizona and FOX Sports Prime Ticket.

Going into play Sunday, Arizona had won 16 of its past 18 games to not just take control of the NL West, but to stretch its lead out to 9 ½-games. In this run of good fortune, the Diamondbacks are outscoring foes by 2.39 runs per game.

Manager Kirk Gibson and company are going to be scoreboard watching in addition to trying to take care of business on the diamond. The Diamondbacks are in a tremendous race with the Milwaukee Brewers to determine which team will get home field advantage and avoid having to play the Philadelphia Phillies in the first round of the playoffs.

As of Sunday, Arizona held a slender half-game edge over the Brewers.

With its magic number at just eight with Sunday's clash pending, Arizona will head into battle on Monday with Joe Saunders on the mound. Saunders is 10-12 on the season, making him the only Diamondback to have double digits in losses.

Part of his struggles have come due to a lack of control. The southpaw has already issued 64 walks this year, and he only has 98 strikeouts to offset the free passes.

Still, batters are only hitting .266 against Saunders this year, a respectable number considering how questionable the rest of his splits have been.

After a rough stretch in the middle of August, Saunders has recovered going 2-1 with a 3.93 ERA in his last three starts.

Historically, Saunders has pitched well here at Chavez Ravine, posting a 3.08 ERA in four starts, but he is only 1-3 to show for his work. He did pick up the win here on July 31 though, allowing just eight hits and two runs in 7 2/3-innings.

The Dodgers have quietly been one of the better second half teams in baseball this season, and manager Don Mattingly has them right at the .500 mark coming into Sunday. There is still a realistic chance to finish second in the NL West, something that would be quite an accomplishment for a team that was 12-games under .500 and in last place on August 20.

Part of the good fortune that Los Angeles has had over the past three weeks can be attributed to the pitching of Ted Lilly, the man on the mound Monday night. The journeyman has allowed just five earned runs in his last three starts combined in 17 2/3-innings of work. He is 2-0 in that stretch.

Lilly has faced Arizona a dozen times in his career, including 10 times as a starter. He has had a varying degree of success against the D-Backs, going 4-6 with a 4.52 ERA. However, Arizona is only hitting .224 against him in his career. The bugaboo has come with 14 home runs allowed, four of which came in his two starts against them this year.

Los Angeles has won eight of its last nine games at Dodger Stadium, but has lost both series here against Arizona this year. The Diamondbacks took two out of three in the series played in August and in May.

The road team has gone 7-5 in the 12 meetings this year, and the visitors have won three of the four series.

Expect a typical night in Tinseltown on Monday. Temperatures should drop into the low-60s with light winds out of the west.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

It's now or never for Ozzie Guillen and the Chicago White Sox who begin a 3-game home set Monday night against the Detroit Tigers.

Jim Leyland's Tigers are in full command of the AL Central with a 10.5-game lead over Chicago heading into the final two-plus weeks of the campaign. Detroit's magic number is down to seven to clinch the division title, meaning anything less than a White Sox sweep in this series will all but wrap up a playoff slot for the Tigers.

Considering the ChiSox will have to face Detroit ace and leading AL Cy Young candidate Justin Verlander on Tuesday, it's a daunting task for Chicago.

The Tigers are fresh off their ninth consecutive win on Sunday, a string that began a little more than a week ago by sweeping three from the White Sox in Detroit. They followed that by taking three in Cleveland before brooming the Twins this past weekend at Comerica Park.

Detroit leads the season series against Chicago 10-5, with the clubs even in the six games played in the Windy City. The 'over' holds a slight 3-2-1 advantage in the games at US Cellular Field.

Monday's mound matchup will have Rick Porcello (18-9, 4.87) hurling for the Tigers against Chicago left-hander John Danks (10-14, 4.09). Porcello will be facing the Pale Hose for the first time this season while Danks is making his fourth start of 2011 against Detroit, and second in 10 days.

The MLB odds opened with Chicago -125 and nine runs for the total.

One look at Porcello's 4.87 ERA and you wouldn't think the Tigers could have won 18 of his 27 starts, but they have. The 22-year-old out of Morristown, NJ endured five real stinkers mixed in to bloat this ERA, two of those against Cleveland during August.

Porcello's game is coaxing ground balls, but White Sox lineups have somehow been able to get his pitches up and out in the past. Detroit has won just two of his six career outings vs. Chicago with Porcello serving up seven homers in 35 innings to account for a lot the damage in his 7.46 ERA.

Danks is coming off two losing efforts on the road, one a whipping he suffered in Detroit on Sept. 2 when he matched up against Verlander. The Tigers chased Danks with nine hits and eight runs before he could get out of the fifth, and Verlander coasted into the winner's circle as heavy 200 chalk.

That was Danks' second loss to the Tigers in Detroit this season, but he won the lone outing against them at home on July 27, allowing just a run and striking out 10 over the course of six innings. That could be the key to this one as the southpaw has been much better at The Cell where his ERA his 3.08 in 12 assignments and the White Sox have won six of his last eight trips to the bump.

Monday's action gets underway at 8:10 p.m. (ET) under what should be clear skies and a first-pitch temp in the mid-70s. A 10-15 mph SW wind is in the forecast (RF corner across to LF).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

The scorching-hot Detroit Tigers will look to win their 10th straight game on Monday night when they travel to Chicago to face the White Sox. Detroit has opened up a commanding 10½-game lead over Chicago, and the Tigers’ magic number is now seven.

Getting the ball for Detroit is Rick Porcello (13-8, 4.87 ERA) who has had a dreadful history against Chicago, going 1-4 with a 7.46 ERA in six starts. Hurling for the White Sox is lefty John Danks (6-11, 4.09 ERA). Danks has had a rough time as of late, allowing 13 runs (12 ER) in 10.2 innings over his past two starts, both losses. Detroit has beaten up on division opponents this year, going 43-21 (+17.2 Units), and has also been terrific coming off wins (49-34). Chicago has not defended its home field too well, with a 33-39 home mark (-17.1 Units). The pick here is for DETROIT to keep the streak going on Monday night and make it 10 straight in a lopsided road victory.

Some more FoxSheets trends cautioning against Chicago include this pair:

CHI WHITE SOX are 10-21 (32.3%, -14.2 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games where they committed no errors this season. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 3.5, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CHI WHITE SOX) - terrible offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA= 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after 2 straight games where they committed no errors. (34-22 since 1997.) (60.7%, +22.2 units. Rating = 2*).

Detroit’s nine-game win streak is the longest since its championship season of 1984. A big part of the Tigers recent success is due to their bullpen who have recorded a 2.20 ERA over the past 36 games. A mixture between good hitting and solid pitching has resulted in Detroit winning 10 of Porcello’s last 12 starts. Porcello has been strong of late with a 2.75 ERA in his past three starts including two outings of allowing only one run.

Danks pitched very well against Detroit in April (6 IP, 3 ER, 8 K) and July (6 IP, 1 ER, 10 K), but the Tigers lit him up on Sept. 2, banging out nine hits and eight runs in 4.2 IP. Danks will need to find a way to get out Magglio Ordonez, who is 16-for-32 with two home runs against the lefty. Paul Konerko is looking for his 30th home run of the season on Monday night, which would give him 30 homers for the seventh consecutive season. Konerko has been the rock in that Chicago lineup for many years and has always provided clutch hitting and power.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

Meteorologists were predicting warm temperatures and a chance of thunderstorms for Monday’s Patriots-Dolphins game as of Sunday night. The chance of rain was listed at 60 percent with winds between 8-10 mph.

Who’s hot

NFL: The over is 16-5 in New England’s last 21 games overall.

NFL: Oakland has covered in eight of its last 10 meetings with Denver.

MLB: Tampa Bay has won 21 of its last 27 games as a favorite.

MLB: Atlanta has won eight of its last nine meetings with Florida.

Who’s not

NFL: Miami has covered just 17 of its last 63 home games.

NFL: The under is 0-8 in the last eight games in which Denver has been favored.

MLB: Pittsburgh has won just eight of its last 28 home games.

MLB: The Chicago Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 road games.

Key stat

3 – After all the hullabaloo over the NFL’s new kickoff rule that many figured would cut down on long returns, there were three kickoff returns for touchdowns on opening Sunday, the most since 1998.

Injuries that shouldn’t be overlooked

Daniel Thomas, Miami Dolphins – Thomas is currently listed as questionable for Monday’s game against the Patriots with a hamstring injury, but told reporters on Sunday he expected to go, and handle red-zone carries. The club brought back veteran Larry Johnson last week in case Thomas can’t start.

Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians – Hafner returned to the lineup Sunday for the Indians after being on the shelf since the middle of August with a strained right foot. He batted cleanup as the club’s DH in Sunday’s win over the White Sox and went 1-for-4 with a walk.

Game of the day

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+7.5, 45.5)

Notable quotable

"Everybody knows that the Raiders are built on speed, size and speed, That's just the Raiders. So, they're going to have the fastest guys on the field. But when it comes to (the Broncos) being on the field, it's all about discipline. I think that's one thing that we have. Now it's just time for us to go out there and show it." - Denver linebacker Joe Mays.

Notes and tips

Bettors are jumping all over the New England Patriots as they get set to open their season Monday night in Miami. As of Sunday night, more than 77 percent of *********** Consensus bettors were backing the Pats, who are now set around -7.5. The road team has covered in six of the last eight matchups between these two teams.

After it looked as though the MLB playoff races were all but decided last week, the action over the weekend changed a lot. The Tampa Bay Rays pulled off a sweep of the Red Sox to move within 3 ½ games of Boston in the AL Wild Card race and are set as a -125 favorite on the road as they open a series with the Orioles. In the NL, St. Louis swept Atlanta to pull within 4 ½ games of the Braves for the wild card. St. Louis is a -135 favorite at Pittsburgh Monday.

The San Diego Chargers pulled off a big comeback win Sunday against the Vikings but couldn’t get their supporters to the pay window as 9-point favorites. After the game they learned that they have lost defensive end Luis Castillo (broken leg) and kicker Nate Kaeding (torn ACL) for the season. The Chargers face a stiff test in Week 2 as they head to Foxboro for a date with the Patriots.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

-- Rays swept Red Sox, are now only 3.5 games behind Boston; lot of rumors the Red Sox may trade for a pitcher for the next two weeks.

-- Phillies lost in Milwaukee, their first loss in Vance Worley's last 15 starts. Interesting if they'll start Worley or Oswalt in the playoffs.

-- Doug Fister has been awesome for Detroit, as the Tigers run away in the AL Central. Leyland's team will be tough in the playoffs.

-- Arizona had its 15-game home winning streak snapped by the Padres and Wade Leblanc- Snakes are looking awful good to make playoffs.

-- Colorado got Alex White/Drew Pomeranz for Ubaldo Jimenez; in his debut Sunday, Pomeranz blanked the Reds for five innings.

-- Steve Strasburg got thru five innings on 57 pitches in his 2011 debut Tuesday; he only lasted three innings (56 PT) in his second start, but he also gave up just one run. If he stays healthy, he's a big star.

**********************

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday........

13) Anyone who thinks Tony Romo is an elite QB, think again; fumbles on the 2-yard line with a 24-17 lead, when a FG seals the deal, then tosses an INT in the last minute of a tie game. How many big games has the guy won? One? He's a guy with a catchy name playing on a popular team. In no way is he an elite NFL quarterback.

12) NBC tells us that Cowboys were 241-0-1 all-time in games where they led by 14+ points in the fourth quarter. Make that 241-1-1.

11) Cam Newton's NFL debut: 24-37/422 yards with two TD's. Carolina lost the game, but Panther fans have to be very fired up about Newton-- he is the first QB ever to pass for 400+ yards in his NFL debut.

10) Chargers came from behind to beat Minnesota, but they lost kicker Nate Kaeding for the season with a torn ACL. He got hurt on the opening kickoff, when Percy Harvin ran it back all the way for a Viking TD.

9) NFC South went 0-4 this week, first time that division has done that since Week 16 of the 2007 season.

8) Colts only had three WRs in uniform Sunday, which is OK, since they don't have a decent QB to throw them the ball anyway. Colts might think about bringing David Garrard in for a tryout this week, no?

7) On the average, these teams have the most expensive tickets in NFL: Jets $120.85, Patriots $117.84, Giants $111.69, Cowboys $110.20, Bears $101.55.

5) Lions' QB Matthew Stafford was a catcher in high school; one of the pitchers on his team was the Dodgers' ace Clayton Kershaw.

4) Over the last 13 seasons, Super Bowl losers are now 0-13 against the spread in their opener the next season; Super Bowl winners are 9-2-2 vs spread in their last 13 openers the next season.

3) Detroit was impressive in outgaining Tampa Bay 431-313, but in the first quarter, they outgained the Bucs 143-4 and were losing, 10-6. Nine of Tampa Bay's 11 drives started at their 20 or worse field position.

2) Over the first 14 NFL games this weekend, teams started 166 drives at their own 20 or worse field position, and scored a total of 209 points, an average of 1.26 yards per drive. Thats 5.9 drives per team, which is more than in the past, because of the new kickoff rule. Coaches tend to be a lot more conservative when they're in the shadow of their own goalposts, so will the new rule increase or reduce scoring?

1) If a team is backed up inside its own 20 and doesn't get a first down, and believe me, coaches are nervous inside their own 20, very afraid of committing a turnover, then the other team gets decent field position on the ensuing possession. To get a high scoring game, you need either lot of turnovers or short scoring drives. This will be interesting to track.

Interestingly, over is 11-2-1 this week, in part because of an awful lot of touchdowns on defense/special teams (13 by my count). Favorites were 5-8-1 vs spread, home sides are 6-7-1.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

Tampa Bay at Baltimore
The Orioles look to build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 games in Game 1 of a series. Baltimore is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

Hot pitchers
-- Cardinals won six of last seven Lohse starts.
-- Beachy is 4-0, 3.00 in his last eight starts.
-- Dickey is 3-0, 1.67 in his last four starts.
-- Former Astro Oswalt is 3-1, 3.71 in his last five starts. Former Phil Myers is 1-0, 1.84 in his last couple starts.
-- Lilly is 3-3, 2.70 in his last eight starts.
-- Giants won both Surkamp starts (1-0, 3.27). Harang has a 2.77 RA in his last four starts.

-- Britton is 3-0, 2.74 in his last four starts.
-- Porcello is 2-0, 2.75 in his last three starts.
-- Pineiro is 1-0, 2.77 in his last couple starts.
-- Hernandez is 3-0, 1.57 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Lincoln has a 2.50 RA in his last three starts.
-- Volstad is 0-4, 4.85 in his last five starts.
-- Detwiler is 1-5, 5.40 in his last six starts.
-- Lopez is 1-3, 5.16 in his last four starts. Willis is 0-3, 5.22 in his last five starts.
-- Saunders is 2-4, 5.62 in his last seven starts.

-- Niemann is 1-3, 7.33 in his last four starts.
-- Danks is 2-2, 5.08 in his last six starts.
-- Gonzalez is 3-6, 6.28 in his last nine starts.
-- Hughes is 0-1, 8.79 in his last three starts.

Totals
-- Over is 18-9 in Pittsburgh's last 27 home games.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in Atlanta's last ten home games.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in Washington's last dozen road games.
-- Five of last seven Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in Phillies' last ten road games.
-- Five of last seven Arizona road games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-3 in San Diego's last eleven road games.

-- Over is 11-4 in Baltimore's last fifteen home games.
-- Over is 13-1-2 in Porcello's last sixteen starts.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in Angels' last thirteen road games.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in Seattle's last eleven home games.

Hot Teams
-- Cardinals are 12-4 in their last sixteen games.
-- Marlins won six of their last eight games.
-- Phillies won six of their last seven games.
-- Arizona won 16 of its last 19 games. Dodgers won 15 of last 19.

-- Tampa Bay won seven of its last eight games.
-- Detroit won 11 of its last 12 games. White Sox won six of their last nine home games.
-- Oakland is 8-4 in its last 12 home games. Angels won six of their last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost 20 of their last 28 home games.
-- Braves lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Washington lost 13 of its last 18 games. Mets lost three of four.
-- Cubs lost seven of their last eleven road games. Cincinnati lost nine of its last thirteen games.
-- Astros lost seven of their last nine games.
-- San Diego lost 10 of its last 11 road games. Giants lost seven of their last ten home games.

-- Orioles lost four of their last five home games.
-- Bronx is 10-10 in its last 20 road games. Mariners lost eight of their last ten games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

7:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 8 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis

7:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. BALTIMORE
Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Tampa Bay is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

7:10 PM
CHI CUBS vs. CINCINNATI
Chi Cubs are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Chi Cubs are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games

7:10 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY METS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games
NY Mets are 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Mets's last 12 games

7:10 PM
FLORIDA vs. ATLANTA
Florida is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Florida's last 8 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games

8:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Philadelphia's last 19 games
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Houston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games

8:10 PM
DETROIT vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games
Chi White Sox are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chi White Sox's last 10 games when playing at home against Detroit

10:05 PM
LA ANGELS vs. OAKLAND
LA Angels are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Oakland
LA Angels are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games on the road
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Oakland's last 24 games at home

10:10 PM
NY YANKEES vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games
NY Yankees are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees

10:10 PM
ARIZONA vs. LA DODGERS
Arizona is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
LA Dodgers are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games at home

10:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Diego is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing San Diego

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

King Felix is on another one of his hot streaks, having won each of his last three starts while allowing just three runs over that span. He has struck out 26 batters during the streak and is coming off consecutive 2-1 wins. He went eight innings last week against the Angels before telling manager Eric Wedge he was done for the night.

"I can't lie, I was a little tired in the end,'' Hernandez told reporters. "He asked me. And I've got to be honest. I said 'I'm going to be honest, we've got to win this game.' ''

Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers (13-8, 4.87 ERA)

The Tigers have won four straight with Porcello on the mound and he has allowed just one run in two of his last three outings. Right now he really has his sinker going, which induced 13 ground-ball outs in a 10-1 win at Cleveland last week.

"He kept the ball on the ground, and that’s a big thing for him,” manager Jim Leyland said of Porcello.” That usually tells you that he’s got the ball darting around a little bit with pretty late movement and they’re mis-hitting the ball a little bit."

Slumping

Dontrelle Willis, Cincinnati Reds (0-5, 4.21 ERA)

Willis heads into Monday’s tilt with the Cubs still searching for his first win of the season in his 12th start. Despite the winless drought, Willis hasn’t been terrible. His major issue lately is his control after walking five batters in each of his last three outings. Willis gave up all four runs in a 4-3 loss to the Cubs last week.

Chris Volstad, Florida Marlins (5-12, 5.37 ERA)

Volstad has dropped his last four decisions and the Marlins have lost each of his last trips to the hill, but he can’t take all the blame. The 6-foot-8 starter has allowed only two earned runs in each of his last two starts and hasn’t yielded more than four earned runs since a blowout loss to the Phillies in early July.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

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