--- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
> > No pattern here that I can see.
>
> Please let's go through them one at a time (the four from the last
10
> years) and I will explain what I mean. Which one came first?

pawnfart

Fred, I am not following you. Those are storms going back to 1969. What I am saying about Florida is given what has changed w/ Gaia over the past 10 years,

Message 3 of 12
, Jun 13, 2002

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Fred, I am not following you. Those are storms going back to 1969.
What I am saying about Florida is given what has changed w/ Gaia over
the past 10 years, especially between the time of Andrew and now,
this data is misleading. For instance, given the Dr. Gray factors of
Sahel rainfall and TS activity, here is a story that just came out
and some comments about it (not that Cape Verde waves are important
as far as a Andrew like storm, and Andrew was post Mt. Pinatubo, a
SOx event that would drop phase change temps of cirrus).

From this link:

><tt>David Roberts, the head of the aerosol modelling group at the

Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
Research, said: "It's an effect of the thermal balance between the
two hemispheres. There has to be a rough balance between the north
and south hemispheres  you can't have spare energy in one place or
the other. If the Earth was completely symmetrical, then the point of
thermal equilibrium, where the total energy on either side of a line
was equal, would be the Equator. But because the Northern hemisphere
isn't the same as the south [because of the vast energy reservoir of
the Pacific, which retains energy more efficiently than land] we find
that the Northern hemisphere is warmer than the South."</tt>

><TT>However, aerosol-driven cooling of the Northern hemisphere

pushes that point of thermal equilibrium south  and with it go the
rainclouds that people depend on for their crops in the Sahel. Dr
Rotstayn and Professor Lohmann said that droughts have become less
severe during the past few years. But that does not mean that they
have disappeared. Far from it; the whole of southern Africa is facing
a "regional food crisis", according to a recent report that notes
that a total of six countries in southern Africa have roughly 11
million people who need emergency food assistance. Ironically, the
note came from the United States Agency for International
Development.</tt>

Wrong! SOx reduces phase change temperatures of cirrus but the
bigger issue here is that hydro changes between the hemispheres AND
Gaia issues w/ in Africa itself. Here are some examples:

><tt>There are three more conspicuous examples of the Movement's

activities. The first example is traditional stone lines which are
used to restore soil erosion. This is the product of cooperation
between a western NGO and local peasants in the Naam group. Peter
Wright, a project director of Oxfam discovered an excellent
traditional water-conservation scheme when he was working with
villagers, but he, at the same time, noticed that if these are
aligned properly with the contour levels, they would work better
(Wright and Bonkoungou, 1986: 79-86). Wright invented a cheap method
to measure the contour by using a hosepipe, maximizing this schemes'
effectiveness. Lines of stones ranged along the contour amazingly
"increase infiltration, boost crop yields, reduce erosion, and are
even capable of rehabilitating totally degraded land. [Moreover,] [t]
he technique of making them is so cheap and simple that the stone
lines are spreading with astonishing speed" (Harrison, 1989: 165).
The Naam Movement disseminated the techniques widely, from neighbour
to neighbour, from village to village. </tt>

It should be noted that with this dam building activity in Africa,
and elsewhere, like the Orinoco, the tropical storm seasons, and
other aspects of climate, have SHIFTED as hydrology is delayed. What
we see as a drought in the SW is related to the same thing--living
earth feedbacks to biological activity upstream. So, CO2 from fossil
fuels has a very important Gaia context, and that context is
essentially electrical and biological.

Hence, when the Mississippi hydrology is maxed and when African dams
have helped SHIFT the wave features, the cirrus warming of the N.
Atlantic is DELAYED and this seems to have cooled the Carribean in
June and the GOM by mid July, August. Hence, when there finally is,
from the delays, electrical and SST ability to form a TS in the N.
Atlantic, it is so late in the season that the only thing that stands
to hit the US is something that is more cold core . . .

Thus, the chance for a TS in the GOM is EARLY from the activity of
the Mississippi and spring rains in its flood plain. This year,
because of the drought in Florida (which is incidentally related to
the same dams being discussed), when solar flaring did bring on the
rains, years of biological material has flowed out into the oceans
and Gaia has feedback, following the Black Algae, living conditions
toward more hydrology. Parts of Florida have had 20" of rain in very
short periods of time the past few weeks! That might not be a TS but
it is Gaia.

I think that for the next few weeks there remains a chance for a TS
for Florida and if it hits, a small chance for a what I call back EMF
storm for the Texas side of the GOM, but it is difficult to say on
that, particularly w/ the conditions of the Colorado and CAP and the
fires and drought and all of that--the poor hydrology on that side of
the GOM.

The years I sent are the most recent years that match the present pattern of SOI. ... 1969. ... over ... of ... of ... line ... hemisphere ... of ... find ...

Message 4 of 12
, Jun 13, 2002

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The years I sent are the most recent years that match the present
pattern of SOI.

--- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
> Fred, I am not following you. Those are storms going back to
1969.
> What I am saying about Florida is given what has changed w/ Gaia
over
> the past 10 years, especially between the time of Andrew and now,
> this data is misleading. For instance, given the Dr. Gray factors
of
> Sahel rainfall and TS activity, here is a story that just came out
> and some comments about it (not that Cape Verde waves are important
> as far as a Andrew like storm, and Andrew was post Mt. Pinatubo, a
> SOx event that would drop phase change temps of cirrus).
>
> From this link:
>
> ><tt>David Roberts, the head of the aerosol modelling group at the
> Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
> Research, said: "It's an effect of the thermal balance between the
> two hemispheres. There has to be a rough balance between the north
> and south hemispheres  you can't have spare energy in one place or
> the other. If the Earth was completely symmetrical, then the point
of
> thermal equilibrium, where the total energy on either side of a
line
> was equal, would be the Equator. But because the Northern
hemisphere
> isn't the same as the south [because of the vast energy reservoir
of
> the Pacific, which retains energy more efficiently than land] we
find
> that the Northern hemisphere is warmer than the South."</tt>
>
> ><TT>However, aerosol-driven cooling of the Northern hemisphere
> pushes that point of thermal equilibrium south  and with it go the
> rainclouds that people depend on for their crops in the Sahel. Dr
> Rotstayn and Professor Lohmann said that droughts have become less
> severe during the past few years. But that does not mean that they
> have disappeared. Far from it; the whole of southern Africa is
facing
> a "regional food crisis", according to a recent report that notes
> that a total of six countries in southern Africa have roughly 11
> million people who need emergency food assistance. Ironically, the
> note came from the United States Agency for International
> Development.</tt>
>
> http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?
story=304723
>
> My Comments:
>
> Wrong! SOx reduces phase change temperatures of cirrus but the
> bigger issue here is that hydro changes between the hemispheres AND
> Gaia issues w/ in Africa itself. Here are some examples:
>
> ><tt>There are three more conspicuous examples of the Movement's
> activities. The first example is traditional stone lines which are
> used to restore soil erosion. This is the product of cooperation
> between a western NGO and local peasants in the Naam group. Peter
> Wright, a project director of Oxfam discovered an excellent
> traditional water-conservation scheme when he was working with
> villagers, but he, at the same time, noticed that if these are
> aligned properly with the contour levels, they would work better
> (Wright and Bonkoungou, 1986: 79-86). Wright invented a cheap
method
> to measure the contour by using a hosepipe, maximizing this
schemes'
> effectiveness. Lines of stones ranged along the contour amazingly
> "increase infiltration, boost crop yields, reduce erosion, and are
> even capable of rehabilitating totally degraded land. [Moreover,]
[t]
> he technique of making them is so cheap and simple that the stone
> lines are spreading with astonishing speed" (Harrison, 1989: 165).
> The Naam Movement disseminated the techniques widely, from
neighbour
> to neighbour, from village to village. </tt>
>
> http://www.fao.org/waicent/faoinfo/sustdev/ROdirect/ROan0006.htm
>
> Another link:
>
> http://www.artsci.wustl.edu/~anthro/courses/306/sahel-
> desertification.html
>
> And another on small dams, not to see the actual illness but to
track
> how small dams were constructed and used and may end up actually
> being beneficial to Gaia:
>
> http://www.wisc.edu/epat/.pop-env/.schis/.format/.small-dams.html
>
> More Gaia stuff:
>
> http://www.cidob.org/Ingles/Publicaciones/Afers/45-46acreman.html
>
> It should be noted that with this dam building activity in Africa,
> and elsewhere, like the Orinoco, the tropical storm seasons, and
> other aspects of climate, have SHIFTED as hydrology is delayed.
What
> we see as a drought in the SW is related to the same thing--living
> earth feedbacks to biological activity upstream. So, CO2 from
fossil
> fuels has a very important Gaia context, and that context is
> essentially electrical and biological.
>
> Hence, when the Mississippi hydrology is maxed and when African
dams
> have helped SHIFT the wave features, the cirrus warming of the N.
> Atlantic is DELAYED and this seems to have cooled the Carribean in
> June and the GOM by mid July, August. Hence, when there finally
is,
> from the delays, electrical and SST ability to form a TS in the N.
> Atlantic, it is so late in the season that the only thing that
stands
> to hit the US is something that is more cold core . . .
>
> Thus, the chance for a TS in the GOM is EARLY from the activity of
> the Mississippi and spring rains in its flood plain. This year,
> because of the drought in Florida (which is incidentally related to
> the same dams being discussed), when solar flaring did bring on the
> rains, years of biological material has flowed out into the oceans
> and Gaia has feedback, following the Black Algae, living conditions
> toward more hydrology. Parts of Florida have had 20" of rain in
very
> short periods of time the past few weeks! That might not be a TS
but
> it is Gaia.
>
> I think that for the next few weeks there remains a chance for a TS
> for Florida and if it hits, a small chance for a what I call back
EMF
> storm for the Texas side of the GOM, but it is difficult to say on
> that, particularly w/ the conditions of the Colorado and CAP and
the
> fires and drought and all of that--the poor hydrology on that side
of
> the GOM.
>
>
> --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
> > The most recent year was 1991 which was labled as an el nino year.
> > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1991/index.html
> >
> > The next was 1980 (non el nino)
> > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1980/index.html
> >
> > Then 1977 (el nino)
> > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1977/index.html
> >
> > and the next was 1969 (el nino)
> > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1969/index.html
> >
> >
> > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
> > > > No pattern here that I can see.
> > >
> > > Please let's go through them one at a time (the four from the
> last
> > 10
> > > years) and I will explain what I mean. Which one came first?

pawnfart

Oh. Cool. Well, this presents even a greater problem in that ocean temperatures in general are in my view warmer at this time than in the past 6,000 years,

Message 5 of 12
, Jun 13, 2002

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Oh. Cool.

Well, this presents even a greater problem in that ocean temperatures
in general are in my view warmer at this time than in the past 6,000
years, based on this ENSO pattern we are seeing. Reason--the ocean
conductivity is different than it was recently. That means that you
can throw out recent TS data as not helpful. And that is why the
recent SST anomalies combined with knowledge of the solar cycle and
the Mt. Pinatubo event are so interesting to compare from this time
to January-March 1997.

The SOI is interesting only in the CONTEXT of SSTs and flaring/CMEs
because it helps demostrate the cirrus cloud feedbacks . . . in my
view they won't be that helpful as an artificial intelligence outside
these other considerations.

--- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
> The years I sent are the most recent years that match the present
> pattern of SOI.
>

fredwx

Mike, Here is a link I found today that I think you might like to take a look at: http://www.esr.org/lagerloef/sfcV/sfcV.html ... temperatures ... 6,000 ...

--- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
> Oh. Cool.
>
> Well, this presents even a greater problem in that ocean
temperatures
> in general are in my view warmer at this time than in the past
6,000
> years, based on this ENSO pattern we are seeing. Reason--the ocean
> conductivity is different than it was recently. That means that
you
> can throw out recent TS data as not helpful. And that is why the
> recent SST anomalies combined with knowledge of the solar cycle and
> the Mt. Pinatubo event are so interesting to compare from this time
> to January-March 1997.
>
> The SOI is interesting only in the CONTEXT of SSTs and flaring/CMEs
> because it helps demostrate the cirrus cloud feedbacks . . . in my
> view they won't be that helpful as an artificial intelligence
outside
> these other considerations.
>
> --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
> > The years I sent are the most recent years that match the present
> > pattern of SOI.
> >

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