Monta Ellis’ peripheral stats, spelled out (B-A-D)

* Of course the Warriors can’t seriously consider trading Monta Ellis now. He’s at peak value (for this contract), in the PR factoring and in trade value. The W’s only trade players when their PR value has plummeted. Unfortunately for this PR-obsessed franchise, that means the player’s trade value also always is low by the time they get around to dealing.

-Yep, I understand and respect the Monta Ellis love and me-fury.

Ellis is a very talented player. Almost a star, in many areas. He does amazing things. He’s entertaining. His swoops to the rim put fear in opponents. He’s getting better. He’s trying on defense.

I am not arguing that he’s worthless. He has a lot of worth.

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I’ve defended Ellis a lot through the years, though always with the
qualification that you need a special type of guard alongside him to take full advantage of what he does and doesn’t do.

Stephen Curry is not that player. And Ellis isn’t that player for Curry, either.

To get the most out of either little guard, Ellis and Curry would be much better off playing separately, ideally teamed with a large, tough combo guard. (Oops, the Warriors had three of those guys–Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson and Marco Belinelli–and let them all get away/gave them away.)

The stats bear that out. Sorry, Bobby R.

The Warriors are going to have to split the Ellis/Curry backcourt at some point. I’d hope they realized that from the beginning, but I know they didn’t.

Anyway, back to Ellis: You can argue that he’s fun to watch, but you cannot argue that he is a dominant player in any way the actually leads to the Warriors winning games this season.

Let’s go the set of stats that I loosely call the “peripherals,” but they’re not actually peripheral if you’re talking about how games are won and lost.

By the way, Ellis has played in 87% of the Warriors’ minutes this season, tops in the league. (Gerald Wallace is second at 84%.)

* Ellis is -182 in the plus/minus, which is not a good number. He’s -4.4 per game. The Warriors are -3.4 per game on the season overall.

Take it further: Ellis is -182. When he’s off the floor, the Warriors are +38.

On the scoreboard tally alone, the Warriors are significantly worse when he’s on the floor than when he’s off.

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Wait, I’ll refute the big arguments against this stat in a bit. But a tip-off: Almost every other big-minute player in the NBA has a better plus/minus ratio than his team. Not Ellis.

* The Warriors average 105.1 points per 100 possessions when Ellis is on the floor.

They average 120.1 points per 100 possessions when he is not playing. That’s 15-point difference.

That remains a stunner for me. He’s averaging 26 a game. He’s attracting all that defensive attention. He’s the most talented guy on the court.

And yet the Warriors are MUCH better offensively when he’s out of the game. I’d guess this involves things like Curry feeling more free to run his own offense, better ball movement and less standing around waiting for Ellis to make his move.

This is not a shot at Ellis. He’s being coached to do this by Don Nelson, a supposed offensive genius. It’s just not helping the Warriors very much. Or at all.

And I could find no major-minute player in the league who has anything close to this negative on/off team scoring discrepancy.
* The Warriors have a 50.4 effective FG% (counting three-pointers) when Ellis is in the game. They shoot up to 54.8% when he’s out.

Again, this is a rare, rare thing among big-minute players and certainly does not exist with any true elite player.

(LeBron James: 54.6% EFG when he’s in, 47.0% when he’s out.)

OK, let’s address the arguments against these stats and what they tell us, or don’t tell us, about Ellis’ worth to the Warriors and to the league.
* The first argument: Ellis is surrounded by D-Leaguers, so he gets caught having to do everything vs. defenses that are loaded up against him.

—My explanation: The general point is correct–Ellis is definitely facing loaded defenses. But the cause and effect to his stats just isn’t there.

if he was lifting the Warriors by himself during this period, wouldn’t the W’s offense FALL OFF when he’s out and the defense can just play the D-Leaguers straight up? It doesn’t fall off. It gets much better.

And if Ellis is suffering for his greatness, wouldn’t the stats for other Corey Maggette and Stephen Curry–the two other big-minute W’s–reflect a similar pattern? But they go opposite of the Ellis pattern.

Curry, in 67% of the team’s minutes, is a -97 in the plus/minus, which means he’s -2.3 per game. Better than the team’s -3.4.

He’s a -97. The Warriors are -47 when he’s out of the game. (Again: The Warriors are +38 when Ellis is out.)

Also, the Warriors score 108.1 points per 100 possessions when Curry’s in. That drops to 105.1 when he’s out. (Curry’s problem is defense: Opponents score 112.6 when he’s in, which drops to 109 when he’s out.)

Maggette has played 60% of the team’s minutes, and he’s a -72. The Warriors are -72 when he’s out of the game.

* The second argument: Ellis plays so much, his stats get out of whack because the only time he’s out (when he’s not hurt) is garbage time, when neither team cares much and the Warriors scrubs pile up the points, apparently.

—-My explanation: I’d buy that argument for skewed stats if any other major-minute player (*) had their on/off stats suffer. Because wouldn’t blow outs affect/screw-up the peripherials for players on most teams?

(* There is one similar player in the peripherals: Sacramento rookie Tyreke Evans. I’ll detail his Ellis-like stats a bit lower.)

But other big-minute players on bad teams aren’t affected like that.

Brook Lopez has played 76% of New Jersey’s minutes, and he’s a -420, which is -9.7 per game. The Nets’ team ratio: -13.0. Lopez is more than 3 points better than his team in the plus/minus.

Also, the Nets score 99.7 per 100 possessions when Lopez plays. That drops to 92.7 when he doesn’t.

Washington’s Caron Butler has played 78% of his team’s minutes, and is a -77 in plus/minus, for a -1.9 average. The Wizards are -4.1 per game as a team.

Washington scores 107.2 per 100 possessions and shoots 48.4% EFG when Butler is on the floor. That drops to 101.9 and 46.5% when he’s out.

Iguodala is the closest very good veteran player I could find to Ellis. Iguodala has played in 83% of the 76ers’ minutes, and is a -94, for a -2.2 per game average. The Sixers are a -2.8.

LeBron has played 80% of Cleveland’s minutes, and is a +347. The Cavs have been outscored by 63 when he’s not in. (Why isn’t the garbage time factor dragging him down? Here’s why: The garbage time factor is a mostly a myth.)

Gerald Wallace has played 84% of Charlotte’s minutes. Charlotte is better and better offensively when he’s in.

(OK, let’s get to Tyreke Evans, who conveniently is playing vs. the Warriors tonight in Sacramento. He’s a rookie out of Memphis, so obviously still learning the team game.

(Evans has played 76% of the Kings’ minutes, and is a whopping -175, which is a -4.5 per game average. The Kings are -3.9 on the season.

(Also: The Kings average 104.3 points per 100 possessions when Evans plays. That jumps to 113.8 when he’s out.

(Evans is a terrific player with a great future, but he’s got the Kevin Durant of Last Year Disease–the team plays better when he’s out, with a great chance that, like Durant, that changes when Evans matures.)

I realize the Warriors could go stone cold and lose by 30 in Sacramento tonight without Ellis, and I’ll be hectored. I expect and deserve it.

But let’s go through the last two games, mostly played without Ellis.

In the victory over terrible NJ, the Warriors were +10 in the roughly half-game that Ellis played before he hurt his ankle. They were +22 in the the half-game that he was out, as Curry, in particular, flourished.

And the Warriors were on the end of a back-to-back in Phoenix the next night, without their 26-per-game scorer.

If Ellis was a superstar, the Warriors should’ve been blown to bits. They had Cartier Martin out there, for goodness sakes.

But the Warriors scored 103 points in the game, without Ellis. Their road scoring average up to that point: 104.6.

I’m not saying that the Warriors don’t need Ellis. I’m saying two things:

1) They need to pick between Ellis and Curry because that backcourt does not work in the real world, only in Don Nelson’s imagination.

2) Ellis’ evident talents have not translated to the Warriors being any better when he’s out there, as opposed to Name Your D-Leaguer.

Tim Kawakami

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where did you come up with this idea of bellinelli being this defensive stalwart? u have mentioned him at least twice now as a big guard who would have complemented curry/ellis well.

ridiculous.

alan t.

The majority of these comments are beyond retarded. Simply idiotic. Read Kawakami’s last three paragraphs. Unlike the complete morons who are making up words which don’t even exist in the post, that’s what he was trying to say.

Let me put it into English for you if you’re far too dumb to understand it: Ellis is a midget shooting guard that doesn’t mesh with Curry or the current roster as it’s now put together. The quoted stats seem to strongly support the theory. It is really not all that difficult to understand, except for all the emotional midgets who put passion light years before reason. So they should either put players on the team so he won’t be an island unto himself like a West Coast Iverson, or trade the guy, hopefully for value, and unload the contract and let Curry do his thing.

PJ

I think my point would be that no, the quoted stats don’t, “bear [sic] out” his theory. They don’t bare out any theory and shouldn’t be used to draw any conclusions at all. See above…If TK wants to use some kind of other evidence to support his point, so be it. But the logic he employs, with regards to these stats is less rigorous than what you’d expect in a journalist, or even in a 12 year old.

The fact that the Warriors, when Ellis is out, outshoot the Cavs with Lebron James, in mostly meaningless garbage time minutes could

PJ

be interpreted to mean that garbage time is real and not a myth, as he says.

PJ

Look at the stats when he is on the floor. Judge him for that. And when valid stats, that don’t include garbage minutes, are tallied for when he’s off the floor use those a a comparison.

The first clue that something is wrong is that the team is positive when he’s off the floor. Do you really believe that this roster could compile a positive +/- against other NBA teams over a significant stretch of meaningful games?

http://ihatemydvr.blogspot.com/ Bigmouth

Some of you weren’t watching the games — Belli developed into a decent defensive player just in time for us to dump him. He would have paired well with Ellis.

robert rowell

#44 a kid called brandon jennings comes to mind. but whatever agreed the result would be the same.

i’ve posted before ellis’s PER and offensive efficiency for his career and one thing that TK and most posters gloss over is the statistical fact that ellis needs a PG on the floor who can lead, feed him the ball, and yes, often guard the bigger opposing player. curry, for his impressive play, cannot do any of those things. ellis has become a volume shooter when, just two years back, he was the MOST efficient warrior. that is a problem and i think unclear as to the what is causing it (poor team, poor coaching, etc) but one thing’s for sure is that it can’t continue. another thing no one can refute with TK’s stats are in the win loss column and for all ellis’s efforts, this team simply has not won.

Media Blitz

Hey Tim, how about going back in time and looking at Ellis’ +/- when he was surrounded by *real* players such as Baron, Jack, Al, and Matty Mohawk. Now imagine him – improved skills and all – surounded by that group. So, in my book, Monta is not a -182 on the season. But Rowell is.

Dirk Suave

Just for the record Iverson took a tram on his shoulders an went to the finals. That team faced a Kobe shaq laker team. Ad stole a game. A better Nets team made it and got swept with jkidd, Jefferson. If Monte is the new AI, then we need to keep him. Also Ellis is 6-3.
Kobe is 6-6.
TK will tell you it’s more like Ellis is 6 flat and Kobe is 6-8.
Come on people. This small backcourt won’t work crap has got to go.
The Dubs are on the edge of being a winning team.
And thanks to the poster who acknowledged that Monte was the number scorer on a Winning Dubs Team. First the last half. Ellis has grown up AND shown measurable improvement. And some fans wanna trade him? Um no.
Curry AND Ellis are our guards. For the next couple years barring injuies and trades.

Get me my FA PF or my drafted PF. They only need we have left except health.

jscrilla

They’re 13-30 and like a black hole they’re constanty imploding. Anything that gets near them get’s ruined. (Wright, Buke, Randolph) They’re cursed even worse than the Clips. And the “we don’t know what we have” excuse dolled out by Riley and Fitz day in day out is getting old. This team at full strength would still be out rebounded….out scored…out defended and OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS FOR THE 16TH TIME IN 17 YEARS.

jscrilla

Solution: New Ownership…New GM…New Coach…New Commentators…and most importantly NEW UNIFORMS!

roarshaq

Seriously, Dirk Suave, what in God’s name are you smoking? On the edge of being a winning team? Cohan/Rowell have no interest in fielding a winning team. Is your memory so poor that you forget what transpired the last time the W’s were a winning team, and how quickly the front office dismantled it?

R S

Well, if Ellis has/had value around the league, leave it to you to ruin it.

http://www.animalhiphop.com Animal

Monta’s plus/minus is bad because the only minutes he sits are usually against very bad teams or very good teams. When he sits against very bad teams, the warriors will still play well. When he sits against very good teams it is usually because the 2nd units are in and it’s garbage time, so Monta’s +/- looks bad while the team’s actually gets better.

derek

Rowell, you hit it on the head – “…one thing that TK and most posters gloss over is the statistical fact that ellis needs a PG on the floor who can lead, feed him the ball, and yes, often guard the bigger opposing player.” yes, that is ALL he needs – someone else to lead the team, feed him the ball, and guard the more cumbersome opposing guard. all the makings of a superstar, no?

also, if i take a dump everyday in front of my house, and you all show up each time to take a good close look at it, then declare to anyone within earshot that i’ve taken a dump in front of my house again, and that it most definitely is a dump, which one of us is really the bigger loser?

http://www.animalhiphop.com Animal

Would John Wall be a guy we can pair with Ellis?

Dave

Not just pointless and idiotic, but terribly statistically flawed. The sample size of time when Monta is off the floor vs, the sample size of his time on the floor is so disparate as to render the analysis meaningless. And someone earlier also pointed out the incredible number of garbage minutes played by the Warriors. Kawakami is a whiny idiot, as evidenced by his endless asides, snide remarks and “woe is me they are going to rip me” – but i do read because his inane writing style and terrible analysis aside, he does happen to pull up with pretty good gossip on the team and is usually right on certain facts.

James

You’d love it if the Warriors were to dump Ellis for nothing Kawakami. It would give you more fuel for your anti-Warrior at all cost Blog because I’m a hack that really has no knowledge of the team or sports other than what I watch on ESPN or read on another blog. Then you can start your “We Need to Trade Stephen Curry His Peripheral Stats That I Made Up are Horrible” campaign after you start the “Curry Can’t Get Along With Nellie & Wants Out” rumors. The problem with Bloggers such as yourself Tim is that there is no accountability for the garbage you write. You never step foot in the locker rooms so you never get called out on your lies and rumors by the coaches, managers, and players. I bet when you were younger Tim you were they type that would taunt the other kids while hiding behind your Mommy so as not to get your butt kicked. As an adult you haven’t changed one bit.

M

Save time everybody and don’t read this mess… It’s more of the usual wah, wah, wah, wah mixed in with a splash of flawed statistical analysis …or, in other words, Tim Kawakami’s usual juvenile schtick.

Monta and Curry are not a problem. The train wreck of a starting frontcourt with a gimpy Rony Turiaf being the best player is the problem.

If Monta and Curry had Richardson, Harrington, Jax, a healthy Biedrins, Barnes, and Pietrus as a supporting cast then this team would be winning at the same rate as the We Believe team or close to it.

ALsMouthGuard

I don’t agree with the stats, but I do agree that the Warriors need to move Ellis. You can’t win with a small guard on the team, especially one that is a bad defensive player. I just remember the games the team lost because he couldn’t rotate properly on defense and left his man open for a game winning 3.
If the Warriors could move Ellis for a nice SG, I would do it in a sec.

deano

Ellis and Curry can play together, sometimes spectacularly, and this is primarily due to Curry’s skills and knowledge; but they cannot win together.

Ellis needs to play with a big PG, like Baron. Big, quality PGs are rare, which makes Ellis a fit problem. Curry can play with anyone. So, if you are building a team, as GSW always is, you start with Curry.

To surround Curry with the talent this team needs to win, you have to trade your most valuable misfit, Ellis. You also have to trade your most valuale player who is not part of the future, Maggette.

Circle February 18 on your calendar.

James

Yes. Lets dump Monta Ellis just like J-Rich, Baron, Jack, Pietrus, Barnes, Crawford, Harrington, & etc. for nothing of equal value but cap space that is useless because no one wants to come here except as a last resort. Look how dumping all of those guys has improved this team. Every year it’s let’s dump this guy because Kawakami says he stinks, is a cancer, is overrated or has a problem with Nellie and the team will be better off without them. I guess it will be another post season of watching ex-Warriors that Kawakami said needed to go.

But other than that I agree thats what you need along side the thin, small guys

Ron

Does it all really matter as long as Cohn head (who is -13) ownes the team?

BOYCOTT!!

Dirk Suave

Roarshaq is a nonbeliever huh? The dubs score about 106 a game while giving up about 111 a game. That’s only a couple possesions a game that we need to scrap up. And how do the dubs do that? Why a rebounding PF. We woulda had one but wright got hurt and won’t be back til next year. A player at the PF averaging a 10 and 10 would be the catalyst for the dubs winning. We’ve been blown out some this year but we also have handed a couple out and alot more games have been close losses than blowouts. Give my team a new FA PF or draft my PF with the top5 pick we should have.

Also people can be mad that the “we believe” team got dismantled but think about this. Even with that team intact do they beat a healthy spurs, celtics, magic or Lakers team in the playoffs? No. Maybe knock off somebody once a year but not a finals worthy team. I’ll take what we have now vs what we had. Even with us on the outside looking in for the playoffs. Monte can get us there. And Maybe a finals spot ala AI. It’s possible. If they can get me that PF we need that is.
It looks like parity will allow .500 teams into the playoffs for the west and sub .500 in the east. The Dubs can be a .500 team next year easy. We would be in the thick of it now if we weren’t so hurt. But that has allowed us to continue to pluck the Dleague Gems we keep finding.

Dubs are a 10 and 10 PF away from .500 or better and a playoff spot.
With Monte and Curry as our starting guards.

Lastly who here keeps saying that curry can’t play defense?
They named some of the best in the sport, Nash, CP3.
My question? Who does contain or guard those guys? Nobody. That’s why they are great. Curry has developed his D all year. Go check the stats and tell me howany games has Curry been outplayed statistically by the other teams PG? Answer? Not many. Plus I woulda swore he played great vs last years number 1 pick Rose. Signs of the future? I think so. Curry won’t win rookie of the year but he’ll be second. But at the same time I feel he has shown enough that if he continues to grow then he just might be out Evans for it.

A player is top 6 in scoring, second in steals and first in minutes played. How is he not an all-star? Becuase his team isn’t winning. That’s crap. The all-star game in the NBA is about the PLAYERS not the TEAMS. That’s why fans are allowed to vote. The best players. Monte is the ( at the moment ) best player on the Dubs. His scoring average and steals make him elgible flat out. If the bay fans would vote like the Asians vote for Yao Ming or Texans vote for TMac then Ellis would be in. That’s what really needs to change. WE can get Monte there. It up to us or the coaches to get him on the team since being 6th in the league scoring and second in steals can’t.

deano

James @ #71: I do not think that GSW would have to dump Ellis. We should be able to get a quality player in return. SI reports that Dallas is shopping Josh Howard ($11MM, with one more year remaining) and hopes to acquire Devin Harirs. Jason Terry is currently starting at SG. If Howard is on the market, then Dallas might trade him for Ellis ($11MM, with four more years remaining). Perhaps GSW could do better; but there is no need to dump Ellis.

ALsMouthGuard

I don’t see what’s so crazy about calling Marco a touch player. Sure, he wasn’t the best defender, but he put forth more effort than any other Warrior did last season. He sure is better than Anthony Morrow. A player that some people love to praise.

http://www.myspace.com/theflowfoundation707 tenacious

This article is ridiculous bullshit. If we had monta last night against the kings we would have won that game period.. Instead of watching cariter martion and anthony tolliver throw up shot after shot and miss. Monta is the warriors.

sartre

“Monta and Curry are not a problem. The train wreck of a starting frontcourt with a gimpy Rony Turiaf being the best player is the problem.”

I agree. Maybe the Ellis-Curry backcourt can’t consistently work but attributing the team’s lack of success to it ignores all the other legitimate contributing factors. With all the injuries and line-up changes (including new players being thrown into the mix) how exactly can anyone point a finger at what exactly is not working within this team other than what has remained true across the past two seasons -> the absence of rebounding and giving up too many points? Tim, I know you do your best to bring some evidential basis to your arguments and deserve to be commended for it. But the problem is you’re no statistician (I say this as someone who has qualifications in and uses advanced stats as a professional researcher).

Like many sports journalists you seek out statistical evidence that fits your hypothesis, but this evidence never properly and meaningfully tests it.

Dirk Suave

#79? um Marrow led the league in 3point % last year. Is and has been top 5 top 10 all year. Where has marco ranked? What’s he doing for those Raptors? Morrow has better stats. And this from a guy who loved when we drafted him.

ALsMouthGuard

Don Nelson would love you on his staff lol. Let’s not worry about passing, defending, or the ability to dribble a basketball. Warriors love players that can’t stay in front of their man. Let’s forget everything as long as the player can shoot.
And please don’t talk about stats because they are nearly identical and your boy Morrow plays 10 more minutes a game.

erb

Tim,

I can’t believe I used to like your stuff. This is such crap. Didn’t you learn anything from the ass that Henry Abbott at espn.com made of himself in October when he basically claimed that OKC was better without Kevin Durant on the court because of +/- ? Take a look at Durant and OKC now; the guy is all NBA first team. The bottom line is that Monta’s +/- is bad because the Warriors are awful and he plays almost every minute. If they improve next year (which I think they will as a bunch of good young players heal from injuries, Monta’s +/- will markedly improve) then you, like Abbott, will look like a complete ass.

This article is proof that “lots of numbers” does not equal “well-reasoned argument”.

Commenter #1 is a funny dude.

Deskpilot

Really nice job, Tim…I like how you mix in the quant with your general commentary. Two questions on this post:

- Couldn’t one argue that Ellis is on the same learning trajectory that Evans, Durant, and the other young potentially dominant players in the league are? Even though Ellis has been in the league several years, this is his first year as “the guy” whereas Evans and Durant were “the guy” from the outset.

- Could you please explain how the Garbage Time factor is a myth? Before I got to that point in your post, that was the first thought that came to my mind – ie, that during garbage time, Nellie yanks out Ellis but leaves in everybody else (eg, Curry) making our “garbage time” team better than the other team’s. And given the dubs records, one would have to believe that they play a lot of garbage minutes.

Eric

Wow, there are a lot of Warriors apologists commenting here. I guess the Cohan ownership group’s strategy of duping GSW fans is working. You people may want to check the standings; the team is not exactly a title contender right now. Instead of defending Monta and the status quo, you should be thinking about ways the team can improve.

Then again, until Cohan’s group is gone and replaced with competent management, the Warriors are going nowhere.

Tim Hardaway’s Corpse

Eric,

Just becuase people are criticizing TK’s poorly constructed argument, does not mean said people are also Warriors apologists. If we criticize Rowell for deluding us into thinking the Warriors have hope, we can equally criticize Kawakami when he is taking unfair shots.

PJ

Dear Tim,

I hope you’ll have a chance to read this and respond. I’d be happy to provide you with the spread sheet. I sorted Ellis’ stats after 42 games based on the number of minutes he plays. His season average is about 43 minutes so I divided the stats in half considering games where he played 43 minutes or less and games where he played more than 43 minutes. Here’s what I found:

I think you should consider revising the conclusions* you make using +/-. It is a valid measure of what is happening on the court but you need to consider a large number of games and the context of where the minutes are coming from.

The substitution pattern Nelson has employed is that when a game gets out of hand, Ellis sits. Sorting the games as I’ve done, the ratio of meaningful non-Ellis minutes versus blowout non-Ellis minutes is more than 3:1 (~86/266). So out of every 4 minutes that Ellis was off of the court, 3 of those minutes comes from games where the average margin of victory was 17.5 points whereas just 1 minute comes from games where the average margin of victory was 8.8 points. Is it really meaningful to look at +/- stats that are weighted substantially with blowouts? Probably not.

I think the numbers you were looking at in terms of efficiency when Ellis is off the court are actually evidence that garbage time is very real. Hope you’ll take a closer look at this and try to separate the meaningful numbers from garbage time. I recommend either sorting the games in terms of Ellis’ minutes or in terms of margin of victory. I think you will gain a bit more perspective on the meaning of +/-.