Part of the problem is the spectre of 87 million shares out there ready to be sold at any time.

There have always been 100 million shares. Erik selling 3 million on behalf of a friend doesn't change anything. Each share you own still gets one 100-millionth of the monthly profits each month.

So wait are there 13 million shares owned by the public or 10 million? I was under the impression there are now 13 million, an increase of 30% total shares outstanding.

There have always been 100 million shares owned. 10 million of those were initially released to the public with the remainder held by insiders. A few months (more or less, don't remember exactly) a further 3 million shares were released to the public, making 13 million in the hands of the public and 87 million for insiders. Nothings really changed other than who holds what.

Is there any significant change in the percentage of bitcoin traffic overall that satoshidice accounts for? Increase, decrease? There was a time no too long ago that SD was the topic concerning blockchain space. Since then a lot of new services utilising bitcoin have come onto the chain. Simplistic thought: Either the utility of bitcoin has not really increased or the number of SD players has increased on par. A simple way to gauge increase utility or lack there of. Thoughts?

Is there any significant change in the percentage of bitcoin traffic overall that satoshidice accounts for? Increase, decrease? There was a time no too long ago that SD was the topic concerning blockchain space. Since then a lot of new services utilising bitcoin have come onto the chain. Simplistic thought: Either the utility of bitcoin has not really increased or the number of SD players has increased on par. A simple way to gauge increase utility or lack there of. Thoughts?

Now, you just need to plot the USD BTC price (at the dates corresponding to your data points) against each data point, and you'll be able to see what sort correlation exists before you go messing about with linear models.

Now, you just need to plot the USD BTC price (at the dates corresponding to your data points) against each data point, and you'll be able to see what sort correlation exists before you go messing about with linear models.

Why would it be important to add USD BTC price to the graph? Do you mean I need to take into account the change in total number of bets placed due to increased stakes caused by BTCUSD? I also graphed the total number of bets and there is a slight hump beginning of year but now back to the usual constant slope. Sure, more $$ a play but same number of TX's. Implying that the Satoshidice TX load has not changed much. Yet despite this one would expect it's share of the blockchain to decrease. Potentially, and based on the first graph, its share is indeed decreasing, very slowly, for the past couple months. Still, this leaves me to wonder about why other forms of utility and services in bitcoin have not displaced satoshidice more.

Still, this leaves me to wonder about why other forms of utility and services in bitcoin have not displaced satoshidice more.

Probably because you only buy reddit gold once a year, whereas your satoshidice bets cause two transactions each. I mean the impact on the blockchain per customer is much higher for satoshidice than it is for pretty much any other company.

Now, you just need to plot the USD BTC price (at the dates corresponding to your data points) against each data point, and you'll be able to see what sort correlation exists before you go messing about with linear models.

Why would it be important to add USD BTC price to the graph? Do you mean I need to take into account the change in total number of bets placed due to increased stakes caused by BTCUSD? I also graphed the total number of bets and there is a slight hump beginning of year but now back to the usual constant slope. Sure, more $$ a play but same number of TX's. Implying that the Satoshidice TX load has not changed much. Yet despite this one would expect it's share of the blockchain to decrease. Potentially, and based on the first graph, its share is indeed decreasing, very slowly, for the past couple months. Still, this leaves me to wonder about why other forms of utility and services in bitcoin have not displaced satoshidice more.

Sorry, I thought you were implying something in your original post that you weren't - is the change in the percentage of SatoshiDice Tx related to the USDBTC price? I would expect that, since there's a minimum amount of btc that can be bet, as the exchange rate increases the minimum btc bet becomes much higher in terms of fiat and might start to price some players out of the market.

So I'd be expecting a negative correlation between number of SatoshiDice tx and USDBTC price. That recent dip in the percentage of SatoshiDice tx's in the blockchain is rather suggestive.

You could check this, not by adding the price to your chart, but by scatter-plotting the tx as a function of price - the y axis the daily change in number of tx, the x axis the daily change in price. I expect you'd need to do it on a log-log axis , or plot the logs of the daily tx change and daily price change.

Still, this leaves me to wonder about why other forms of utility and services in bitcoin have not displaced satoshidice more.

Probably because you only buy reddit gold once a year, whereas your satoshidice bets cause two transactions each. I mean the impact on the blockchain per customer is much higher for satoshidice than it is for pretty much any other company.

Agreed. Just comparing to the 2012 percentage and drop from June around 68% share to 55% two months later i would have guessed to see a similar change more recently due to new bitcoin services. I do not remember what changed their share so drastically then (june 2012+) vs now. Anyway, for numerologists and other religions it's interesting perhaps to watch SDice share as a measure of speculation movements vs utility.