A “European Spring” in the making?

Amid the doom and gloom that Putin, Brexit, and Trump provoked across the West, it might seem audacious to talk about Europe as a beacon of hope. Yet, I contend that 2017 might turn out to be the year when Europe, far from imploding, becomes just that for liberal and progressive forces across the world. While we are all too familiar with what has gone wrong and what might go worse, I think that we should be alert to a variety of positive (and far too often under-reported) signs coming from across the Atlantic.

Author

Former Brookings Expert

Led by Geert Wilders, the Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant Party of Freedom failed to breakthrough in the March 15 Dutch elections. There is reason to celebrate. Wilders’ is the only major party in the country that openly promotes a xenophobic, nationalist, populist, and racist public discourse. The five other major parties in the country are, to different extents, liberal, progressive, and pro-European. These liberal forces received the support of an overwhelming majority of citizens and, in some instances, significantly increased their share of the vote. As long as these progressive forces refuse to compromise on their values by entering into an alliance with the Party of Freedom, Geert Wilders will keep making noise, but not policy.

French citizens will spend most of their spring going to the polls. First, they will vote (most likely twice) for a new president. Then, they will vote (again twice) for the National Assembly. Through a formidable PR campaign, Marine Le Pen has been extremely skillful at turning her extreme right-wing National Front into a mainstream political party. She now dreams of the presidency. Unfortunately for her, in the first round of the presidential elections she is unlikely to receive the 50 percent-plus one of the votes that she would need for it. Since she would then face a single candidate in the second round (most likely the centrist Emmanuel Macron or the conservative François Fillon), all polls predict a major defeat for her.

Unlike in the United States and the United Kingdom, Europe’s proportional systems and coalition-based party politics make it very difficult for right-wing populists such as Wilders and Le Pen to ever form a government. This is the same reason why, in Germany, the federal elections in September will see the far-right Alternative für Deutschland failing to come to power. Within this context and certainly against their wishes, Putin, Brexit, Trump, Wilders, Le Pen, and Alternative für Deutschland are all fundamentally contributing to nurture an open, liberal, progressive, and united Europe. They are doing so by bringing together like never before European grassroots movements, civil society, and citizens groups.

Within this context and certainly against their wishes, Putin, Brexit, Trump, Wilders, Le Pen, and Alternative für Deutschland are all fundamentally contributing to nurture an open, liberal, progressive, and united Europe.

On Saturday, March 25, co-ordinated and simultaneous “Marches for Europe” are planned to take place across many European cities. Organized independently of any political party, these public actions will bring together Europeans from across the political spectrum to send a strong message of hope, tolerance, openness, and European unity. As more pan-European public actions are scheduled to take place in the lead up to the summer, we might be about to witness the very first signs of a (much unexpected) European Spring.

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For the first time, [the European Parliament elections] will be fought on European issues, not on national issues. [French President Emmanuel Macron and Italy's governing populists] represent two pure versions of what's going to be offered. [Europe is] now entering a phase where the political fight is in Brussels. It is now a place where you have parties and platforms, and the direction might shift very much if a new party wins.