GBP/USD – 100-DMA support stands exposed if UK services PMI miss

A softer-than-expected UK construction PMI release following a horrible manufacturing PMI release on Tuesday saw GBP/USD pair break below key support of 1.4514. Losses were extended to 1.4461 levels. US ADP reported a sharp slowdown in private sector jobs growth and that helped Cable retake losses, however, the recovery ran out of steam as prices neared 1.4549 (23.6% of 1.3835-1.4770).

Fresh sellers came-in as US ISM non-manufacturing came-in at 4-month high and also carried a sharp rise in employment figures. Consequently, weak ADP became a distant memory as ISM non-manufacturing employmentindex is the strongest leading indicator of monthly non-farm payrolls figure.

Eyes UK services PMI

The main event today is the UK services PMI release (expected 53.5, previous 53.7). A weaker-than-expected print would be a sort of attestation by the highest authority to the fact that UK economy is witnessing a marked slowdown…heading into Brexit referendum. Manufacturing sector has already suffered job losses in April and if services PMI reports job losses too then that would be adding salt to the injury. Hence, GBP/USD could drift lower towards 100-DMA at 1.4382 levels.

On the other hand, better-than-expected services PMI could help Sterling chew through offers around 1.4549 (23.6% of 1.3835-1.4770).

Daily Chart

Support – 1.4461, 1.4413, 1.4382

Resistance – 1.4549, 1.4635, 1.4669

Pair trades on a positive note around 1.4521 and looking to test supply at 1.4549 (23.6% of 1.3835-1.4770).

Traders should watch out for possible rejection at 1.4549 as that is likely to be followed by a break below daily low of 1.4492 and drift lower to 1.4461 (previous day’s low).

Hourly chart also shows bearish crossover between 50-MA and 200-MA and that could further add to bearish pressure around Cable.

With weaker-than-expected services PMI, the selling could gather pace below 1.4461, thereby exposing major support at 1.4382 (100-DMA).

On the higher side, 1.4635 – 1.4640 (falling trend line hurdle) needs to breached on day end closing basis for bearish invalidation.