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CONNECTING THE DOTS – “Obama Intensifies CEO Outreach as Tea Party Draws Business Ire,” by Bloomberg’s Julianna Goldman: “After years of a fractured relationship and fitful efforts to mend ties, Obama has had no fewer than five meetings and a conference call with CEOs since the start of October … The White House has reached out to the business community before with little to show for it. Some executives said there was a sense in the past that Obama was going through the motions with them … If the administration is looking to convince the business community to pressure Boehner and his leadership [on immigration], the Fortune 500 CEOs it has enlisted in the effort have so far shown little sway over Republican hardliners. … In the last six weeks, White House aides such as senior adviser Valerie Jarrett, chief of staff Denis McDonough and National Economic Council Director Gene Sperling have met 10 times with CEOs and trade groups.” http://goo.gl/TtMCxf

TOP TALKER – “Obama ’12 vets to share some, not all, data,” by Maggie Haberman: “After nearly a year of discussion over the fate of reams of Obama campaign data, officials have decided to transfer some voter information to the DNC, but to retain its email list and rent it out to Organizing for Action, party committees and other groups … A senior Democratic operative said Obama campaign manager Jim Messina, who has retained a level of control over the remnants of that apparatus, began notifying the various party committees … There had been discussion about housing the data in a new, separate entity, a prospect that has apparently been abandoned. The operative added, ‘The DNC will then work directly with the [DSCC, DCCC] and state parties to make sure they have all access they need to Obama 2012 data.’ The decision comes after months of grumbling from some Democrats and others that the broad array of Obama campaign data wasn’t being made completely available as early as possible. …

“There is one significant exception to what’s being transferred to the DNC: an email list of small-dollar donors, volunteers and activists cultivated … by the Obama campaign. If that list was moved to the DNC, the operative said, then OFA and other non-political committees wouldn’t be able to access it because of federal regulations governing interactions between groups with different types of tax-exempt status, the operative said. … The email list – ‘the big list of 20 million people,’ according to the operative – had been leased to OFA … Messina, former deputy campaign manager Jennifer O’Malley Dillon and Alyssa Mastromonaco were all involved in the process … of deciding what to do with the data. The rest of the Obama campaign data that is going to the DNC includes voter IDs, which are hard identifications from field or from paid voter contacts; voter “scores”; and turnout models. The campaign’s modeling has been praised as vastly superior to that of the Mitt Romney campaign.” http://goo.gl/jyX8Z0

OBAMA ALUMNI – “Big Data, Smarter Media. Obama Veterans Join Forces for Next Generation Media Strategies. Civis Analytics and GMMB announce new exclusive partnership” – Joint release: “GMMB, Inc. and Civis Analytics … announced an exclusive partnership to combine Civis’ groundbreaking expertise in big data and analytics with GMMB’s state-of-the-art media capabilities. This new partnership offers political campaigns, non-profits and brands the most sophisticated media targeting, planning and placement services anywhere. The new relationship builds on a collaboration that began three years ago during President Obama's reelection campaign. …

“[C]ampaigns had traditionally based their media targeting on … broad-based demographics … [Obama’s team] developed the ‘Optimizer’ – a tool that merged the campaign’s individual-level persuadability scores with set-top box data from Rentrak to help create the most efficient buys. Those tools were widely credited with generating upwards of $45 million worth of advertising value, helping deliver ad impressions more efficiently … to the persuadable battleground voters that mattered.”

--JIM MARGOLIS, GMMB senior partner and Obama ’12 consultant, in an interview: “We are now trying to get from what used to be talking to NASCAR dads and soccer moms, and going out and finding them to flip that on its head, and try to find the individuals and work up from there to what they're watching and what they're actually paying attention to.”

--DAN WAGNER, Civis founder, and chief analytics officer of Obama reelection (master of “The Cave”), using the example of a health-care campaign: “Where before you advertised in a given area or a given state based on where you think the population is, now, you can put it on the street level because you know where the uninsured clusters are.”

BREAKING – “Afghanistan wants to delay crucial U.S. security deal,” by Reuters’ Hamid Shalizi and Jessica Donati in Kabul: “Afghan President Hamid Karzai told his countrymen on Thursday a vital security pact with the United States should not come into effect until after next year's election and conceded there was little trust between the two countries. About 2,500 tribal elders and political leaders from all around Afghanistan gathered in the capital, Kabul, for a Loya Jirga, or grand council, to debate whether to allow U.S. troops to stay after the 2014 drawdown of foreign forces. Without an accord on the so-called Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA), the United States says it could pull out all its troops at the end of 2014 and leave Afghan forces to fight the Taliban insurgency on their own. In a statement certain to irritate the United States, which is keen to clinch the deal as soon as possible, Karzai told the assembly any agreement on the status of U.S. forces would have to wait until after a presidential election in April.”

PULLING BACK THE CAMERA: NANCY GIBBS, who in September became TIME’s top editor, wrote the forthcoming cover story in her spare time, “BROKEN PROMISE: What it means for this presidency … Obama's Race for the Cure: The President's second term may hinge on how fast his health care reform can recover”: “[T]his is a critical moment for a President whose agenda for a second term amounted to little more than being not as lame as the other guy. … Already embattled, the West Wing team failed to prevent or prepare the ­President for the health care brawl and instead made multiple public and private assurances that all was on track. That left Obama sounding like a disappointed fan in a bad bleacher seat watching his presidency be pummeled at a distance. … By last summer, people should have been running around the West Wing with their hair on fire. …

“‘When the website is working better and all of that, the politics are going to be fine,’ says one senior White House official. ‘If your contractor at your house screws something up, you tell them to fix it, you don’t go hire new contractors.’ … Obama promised a return to competence and confidence and asked the nation to believe again that the government could do big things well. In the end, he got his big thing … He has yet to prove he can do it well.” See the cover, and read the top of Nancy’s story. http://goo.gl/M3y9TX

COMING ATTRACTIONS – N.Y. Times 1-col. off-lead, “G.O.P. MAPS OUT WAVES OF ATTACKS OVER HEALTH LAW: TELLING VOTERS’ STORIES: Focus on Oversight by House Panels Meets With Successes,” by Jonathan Weisman and Sheryl Gay Stolberg: “First it was the malfunctioning website, … then millions of insurance policy cancellation notices sent to individuals with plans that did not meet the requirements of the health law. Earlier this week, the House aired allegations that personal data is insecure on the … exchanges. At a congressional field hearing set for Friday in Gastonia, N.C., the line of attack will shift to rate shocks expected to jolt the insurance markets in the next two years. Coming soon: a push to highlight people losing access to their longtime physicians and changes in Medicare Advantage programs for older people.” http://goo.gl/bUbfxi

--CLICK DU JOUR: NYT posts 18 pages of House GOP talking-points documents, including an “Obamacare Watch” one-pager from Majority Leader Eric Cantor, and a House Republican Conference “Playbook” that includes “Messaging Tools,” “Digital Flyers” and a “Sample Op-Ed.” The cover shows a red caduceus and the title, “Because of Obamacare… I LOST MY INSURANCE.” http://goo.gl/dQj7S2

--“The House GOP’s Obamacare playbook,” by Seung Min Kim and Jake Sherman: “The House GOP effort includes investigations by at least eight committees, subpoenas for testimony from key administration officials and an initiative by Rep. Darrell Issa, chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, to hold hearings around the country to highlight Americans’ problems with the law. Top committees — like Ways and Means and Energy and Commerce — are leading the charge, but relatively small panels like the Small Business Committee are also in on the action. … The [Republicans’ meticulous approach] is a recognition … that they need to avoid looking like they’re overreaching, as they have been wont to do in the past. …

“[L]eadership has been hosting brainstorming sessions so committees can trade information … Several pieces of legislation highlighting Obamacare troubles are emerging, although the House GOP leadership believes there may not be enough time left on the House calendar to take up any of them on the floor this year. After lawmakers return from Thanksgiving break, the House will have just two weeks left — which will most likely be consumed with conference committees for the farm bill, the budget and the water infrastructure bill. Legislation is sure to come up next year.” http://goo.gl/mSdKjj

WHAT THE WEST WING IS READING – “Myth of health reform’s failure,” by L.A. Times business columnist Michael Hiltzik: “Don't buy the hype. … [T]he spectacle of Democrats panicking over bad news on Obamacare resembles the herds of giraffes one sees on the Serengeti being stampeded by swarms of tsetse flies. Here's a lesson the giraffes could teach the Dems: Stampeding leads only to injuries and death, and doesn't solve the tsetse fly problem. … [T]he number of victims is much smaller than you're being led to think and is swamped by the ranks of beneficiaries. … [T]he market for individual policies is about 30 million people. Of those, more than 20 million are uninsured. For virtually all of them, Obamacare is an unalloyed blessing. …

“[I]ndividual policy-holders … number somewhere between 8.5 million and 9.5 million. The vast majority of these customers -- two-thirds -- spend less than a year in the individual market, according to a 2004 study published in Health Affairs. The study found that most people use individual insurance to bridge between periods of coverage from employers or public programs like Medicaid. If three-quarters of the individual customers will be eligible for insurance subsidies, that leaves 2.1 million to 2.4 million Americans paying the full freight. The last piece of the puzzle, and the murkiest, is how many of this last group will be paying higher prices for lesser coverage -- the emblematic Obamacare ‘victims.’ Even if it's all of them, at most they account for less than 1% of the country.” http://goo.gl/XX44vQ

CHASER – “Obamacare tradeoffs: Now they tell us,” by John F. Harris and David Nather: “The broken HealthCare.gov website … is on the path to repair. … But the problem with Obamacare’s stumbling start is that it shined a harsh light on intended consequences — more costs and more government regulation — that were always embedded in the ACA, yet were deliberately downplayed by Obama and Democrats on the way to passage. Backers hoped the costs of the ACA and its roster of losers would remain obscured after launch in a rush of good feeling about the laws benefits and its roster of winners. … [S]ome very clear tradeoffs that were always central to Obamacare have been put on sharp display. … Like other social programs, it involves transferring from haves to have-nots. …

“To rebuild the broken individual health insurance market, the part of the market that has always been riddled with holes, the law eventually has to move people with individual coverage into new plans with stronger rules and benefits. Whether it happens now or later, it has to happen — otherwise the new market falls apart. .. You may not be taxed directly to pay for the financing of Obamacare itself, which includes subsidies to help low and middle-income people buy coverage. But health insurers will be, and they’re going to pass their costs on to you. And there’s talk that employers could follow the lead of the Obamacare exchanges and shift to narrower doctor networks in a few years — because they’re running out of other ways to control their own costs.” http://goo.gl/KD2Yft

MOOD MUSIC – L.A. Times, lead of second front, “STATE IS BACK ON FIRMER BUDGET GROUND: Surging revenue may mean surpluses and billions for schools. For now, Brown and GOP urge restraint.”

N.Y. TIMES D.C. SHAKEUP: Political Editor Carolyn Ryan, now based in New York, becomes Washington Bureau Chief effective Dec. 15, while retaining her current empire. She succeeds David Leonhardt, who’ll be managing editor of a new, Nate-Silverish unit. Per a memo to the staff from Executive Editor Jill Abramson: “After a successful run as Washington Bureau Chief, David returns to his roots: explaining complicated stuff to our readers in his own engaging voice. Under David's leadership of the Washington Bureau our coverage continued to lead on everything from the Supreme Court to National Security.”

--CAROLYN RYAN is a niece of … MARK SHIELDS!

--More deets, from a news release: “Carolyn Ryan [age 48] … will relocate to Washington … and oversee the Washington bureau in addition to national political reporters based outside of DC. ‘Carolyn’s leadership skills and her deep understanding of politics have been evident in our coverage of countless high-impact stories, like the New York City mayoral race and the downfall of Eliot Spitzer,’ said Jill Abramson … ‘She is an inspired and energetic editor with an eye for talent. Her tenure as political editor has already resulted in agenda-setting pieces and fantastic new hires.’

“David Leonhardt [age 40] will become managing editor of a new vertical that will offer clear analytical reporting and writing on opinion polls, economic indicators, politics, policy, education, and sports. Leonhardt will manage a newly assembled team of reporters, graphics editors, economists, historians and political scientists including Amanda Cox, who will anchor the graphics coverage in collaboration with The Times’s polling group: Marjorie Connelly, Megan Thee-Brenan, Allison Kopicki and Dalia Sussman. New hires include: Michael Beschloss, a historian, will serve as a contributing columnist; Nate Cohn, will join as a correspondent from The New Republic; and Justin Wolfers, a professor at the University of Michigan, will join as a contributing columnist.”

--CARL HULSE is promoted to Chief Washington Correspondent. Per Jill’s memo, DAVID E. SANGER, “who held that distinction for seven years, writing on a range of issues from the global economy to terrorism, will now concentrate on cyber warfare and national security issues.” Per a B5 news story by Christine Haughney: “Mr. Hulse, 59, was previously the chief congressional correspondent for The Times. Mr. Hulse joined The Times in 1986 after working for The Sun-Sentinel in Fort Lauderdale.”

--CAROLYN RYAN BIO: “Ryan was named political editor in May 2013 and served as Metro editor since January 2011. Previously, Ms. Ryan had been deputy editor for the Metro section’s government and politics coverage since joining The Times in 2007. Before coming to The Times, Ms. Ryan worked for The Boston Globe where she held several positions including deputy city editor, political editor, assistant managing editor and deputy managing editor. She was a member of the team that won the 2009 Pulitzer Prize for Breaking News for its coverage of Governor Eliot Spitzer.” See Jill’s full memo. http://goo.gl/vxqIDcRead the release. http://goo.gl/18FgxNRead the news story. http://goo.gl/ExqQw7

LIVING HISTORY – Chicago Tribune splash, “Signed and sealed: [Gov. Pat] Quinn makes Illinois the 16th state to legalize gay marriage,” by Monique Garcia, with Ray Long in Springfield: “[T]he re-election-seeking Democratic governor slowly signed the bill with 100 pens that quickly became souvenirs. He did so at a desk shipped from Springfield that … Abraham Lincoln used to write his first inaugural address in 1861 … [A]ttendees shared celebratory kisses and waved miniature rainbow flags featuring the outline of Illinois. … The bill-signing illustrated the rapidly changing views … on gay rights. Supporters first introduced an anti-discrimination bill in the legislature in 1974. It didn't became law until 2005. It took an additional six years for civil unions to be approved, but only about half that time for the gay marriage measure.” http://goo.gl/W376nU

FOR YOUR RADAR – “Obama seeks to renew Asia role with rescheduled trip,” by AFP’s Shaun Tandon: “Susan Rice, Obama's national security adviser, said [at Georgetown that] Obama would make up with his trip [in April], saying: ‘Our friends in Asia deserve and will continue to get our highest-level attention.’ … Rice said US assistance to the typhoon-hit Philippines, which includes the deployment of more than 1,000 Marines, represented a broader pledge to all of Asia. … Rice did not specify Obama's itinerary. Kyodo News reported that Obama's stops would include Japan … Obama had planned stops last month in the Philippines, Malaysia and, for international summits, Indonesia and Brunei. … Vice President Biden will tour China, Japan and South Korea next month.”

MEDIAWATCH – “Palin's PAC asks about Bashir action,” by AP Television Writer David Bauder: “Sarah Palin on Wednesday cancelled a scheduled interview with NBC's Matt Lauer following MSNBC host Martin Bashir's suggestion that she deserved a graphic punishment for comments made about slavery. An NBC executive … confirmed the cancellation, first reported by Fox News. NBC hopes to reschedule Lauer's trip to Alaska for the holiday season interview ... Palin's political action committee has written to MSNBC President Phil Griffin and NBC News President Deborah Turness asking whether Bashir would be disciplined. Tim Crawford, treasurer of Palin's PAC, said in the letter that ‘Americans deserve to know that your network doesn't condone violent and hateful rhetoric.’ … Crawford noted [Alec] Baldwin's punishment in his letter, as well as MSNBC's firing of Don Imus in 2007 for an offensive comment about members of the Rutgers women's basketball team.”