A new jihadist group operating in East Africa emerged in late January, calling itself Al Muhajiroun in East Africa. The organization--which according to the Arab newsource Al Jazeera may be an offshoot of al-Hijra--has pledged bayah to both al-Shabab and Al-Qaeda. Very few details about this group have emerged out of the woodwork, aside from self-published materials from the group's leadership. Despite their loyalties, it appears that Al-Muhajiroun is "more aspirational than real."

While the group is nominally aligned with al-Shabab, we shouldn't expect to see any operations in Somalia in the near future. Matt Bryden of Sahan Research has noted that the group's orientation is "more Swahili than Somali." Currently, the group is based in Kenya with the primary intention of exporting jihad across East Africa more generally. Specifically, it appears they are emphasizing Tanzania, which has been frequently mentioned in their press releases. Shortly after they announced their allegiance to al-Qaeda and al-Shabab, a public announcement was issued to the people of Tanzania to "protect our shiekhs." In a publication entitled "Protecting our Shiekhs, they wrote, "To sit by idly, and watch the government of Tanzania harass, intimidate and humiliate our Sheikhs is untenable and must now end. Ending such a policy and tactic in Tanzania is not just the responsibility of the Mujahideen but also of all Muslims in Tanzania."

The group is also composed of members from a number of Western countries, highlighting the threat of educated extremists traveling to nations for the purpose of propagating or enacting ideology. In a tweet published on March 18, 2015, the group stated it welcomed recruits from France, Canada, and Australia.

In the first edition of their magazine, called Amka, which is Swahili for "wake", the group expressed its condolences for the death of al-Shabab's leader, Ahmed Abdi Gobane. Gobane was killed by a U.S. drone strike in September, 2014. Further, they also announced bayah to al-Shabab and lauded the Charlie Hebedo attacks.

Al-Hijra

Established in 2008 as the Muslim Youth Center, al-Hijra is al-Shabab's affiliate in Kenya. However, its roots are much deeper. During the 1990s, when Sheikhs Rogo and Makaburi were members of the Islamic Party of Kenya, and began moving into Al-Qaeda circles. While both leaders were allegedly killed in a series of extrajudicial killings by Kenya's Anti-Terror Police Unit in 2012, al-Hijra has continued to flourish. The group has helped facilitate a number of attacks in conjunction with al-Shabab, including the deadly 2013 attack on the Westgate Mall in Narobi.

A great deal of al-Hijra's actions revolved around acting as a support and recruiting mechanism for al-Shabab. For instance, Abdulkadir Mohamed Abdulkadir, a key figure in both al-Shabab and al-Hijra also known as Ikrima, is an operations and recruitment officer who was plausibly involved in Westgate Mall attack's planning. However, they also have a formidable operational capacity. Currently, they stand at about 1,000 members, many of whom are seasoned and dedicated fighters from fighting in Somalia. They have also been implicated in a number of bombings and smaller attacks across Kenya.

Al-Qaeda in Tanzania

Al-Qaeda's involvement in Tanzania is by no means new. The group has conducted operations there since its earliest days as an organization in the 1990s. In 1998, Al-Qaeda conducted a major attack on the U.S. embassy in Dar es-Salaam. More recently, an Al-Qaeda branch called "Muslim Renewal" beheaded a Catholic priest and then shot a parishoner in 2013. In the same year, Muslim Renewal terrorists detonated a bomb outside of a new Catholic church, killing 3 and injuring 60. However, the international community has failed to curb growing extremism and strife in Tanzania. As Jay Radzinski and and Daniel Nisman have noted, "In an all-too-common trend, it could only be a matter of time before Al Qaeda’s veteran terrorists elsewhere in the world take note of Tanzania’s revitalized extremist potential. The combination of economic strife and religious conflict provides fertile ground for these elements to sow their seeds of instability." It appears, unfortunately, that Al-Qaeda has recognized this potential and have put into place an organization bent on seizing the initiative.

The establishment of this group is likely a part of AQ's broader strategy of expanding operations in East Africa. While al-Hijra continues to focus on Kenya,Al-Muhajiroun may act as the group's principle organization concerned with spreading terrorism in Tanzania. This is, in part, evident by the group's heavy emphasis on Tanzania in their media strategy. Furthermore, the tense socio-political environment in Tanzania is a prime environment for the group to thrive in.

Abu Hafs al Masri, an Egyptian, was killed yesterday while fighting for Ahrar al Sham in the ongoing offensive in Idlib city. His death has been heavily touted by various jihadist sources on social media, however, no official martyrdom statement has been released by Ahrar at the time of publication.

Al Masri has also been touted as a longtime veteran of al Qaeda. It appears Al Masri was, at one point, a military commander for al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Several tweets indicate that he was a trainer for al Qaeda's forces in the country, while another suggests he has also fought for al Qaeda in Somalia. Neither can be independently verified at this point, but the claim that he was a military trainer in Afghanistan is very likely.

This is not the first al Qaeda veteran killed while fighting for Ahrar al Sham in Syria. The most famous example is that of Abu Khalid al Suri. Al Suri, whose real name was Mohamed Bahaiah, was killed last year in Aleppo likely by the Islamic State. According to The Long War Journal, al Suri was Zawahiri's key representative in Syria and acted as a mediator between al Qaeda's Al Nusrah Front and the Islamic State. Citing intelligence officials, my colleague Thomas Joscelyn continues by saying that there are other al Qaeda figures within Ahrar, as well as "al Qaeda has influence in organizations that are not officially recognized as affiliates or branches of the group."

Al Qaeda veterans fighting for Ahrar is not surprising as al Qaeda was very instrumental in its founding and has been able to have members in leadership positions within the group. Not only that, but Ahrar fights very closely alongside al Qaeda in Syria. In almost every major offensive Al Nusrah is involved in, Ahrar is also there alongside the al Qaeda branch.

Rebel offensive in IdlibThe current rebel offensive in Idlib consists of several allied rebel groups advancing on the regime-held city of Idlib. The rebel groups are fighting under a coalition named Jaysh al Fateh; however, Al Nusrah Front appears to be leading the offensive. Ahrar al Sham, Jund al Aqsa (a group largely composed of foreigners), Ajnad al Sham, Jaysh al Sunna, Liwa al Haqq, and Faylaq al Sham (Sham Legions), and several other Free Syrian Army groups are also in the coalition.

Ahrar al Sham has released several videos on its YouTube account, including one showing its fighters advancing in the city. Others show its fighters targeting regime positions in the city. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) is reporting that around 17 "Islamic fighters" were killed in the clashes yesterday, while 11 regime soldiers were also killed. SOHR did not say which group(s) these fighters came from, but almost certainly Ahrar has lost several soldiers. It is also almost certain that al Masri is not the last al Qaeda veteran within Ahrar's ranks.

This post will be updated when a martyrdom statement for al Masri is released or more information is available. Photo of al Masri before his burial:

UPDATE ONE:The rebel coalition, Jaish al Fateh, has claimed victory in Idlib. Al Nusrah, Jund al Aqsa, Sham Legion, and Ahrar al Sham have all released photos and videos from inside the center of Idlib today. These photos and videos show celebrating fighters and civilians, fighters tearing down pictures of Bashar al Assad, fighters destroying a statue of Hafez al Assad, and fighters occupying government buildings.

For photos from these videos, please read Thomas Joscelyn's post by clicking here.

Since the beginning of crisis in Yemen on September 21, 2014, when fighters seized the city of Sana'a in an apparent power grab, the security situation in the country has continually deteriorated. Events took a dramatic turn for the worse in late January, when President Hadi's presidential residence was seized, he was forced to resign, and his government relocated itself to Aden. By February 6, Houthi representatives announced that the group had taken control of the government and would establish a "presidential council" to lead the nation for two years while special committees would be charged with the creation of a new parliament. However, while Hadi has managed to maintain a tenuous grip over parts of the country, his governance has been burdened with numerous challenges and setbacks. Most recently, Houthi rebels essentially seized the city of Tiaz as this post was being published.

As it pertains to American interests, the current situation is somewhat worrying in several ways. First, it represents yet another victory for Iran in their pursuit of regional hegemony and geopolitical dominance within the Middle East. According to Reuters, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has a few hundred soldiers training Houthi rebels in Yemen. Furthermore, Secretary of State John Kerry confirmed last month that Iran had contributed to the Houthi takeover, though whether they are exerting command and control influence over Houthi rebels remains unclear according to White House spokesman Josh Earnest. It is likely, however, for Yemeni allegations that Iran has financed Houthi rebels to be valid. Houthis are a Shiite ethnic group who oppose Iran's ideological and political rivals, thereby making them a natural proxy for Tehran to further its aspirations in the region.

The second concern stems from the emerging power vacuum in Yemen. As a result of recent tumult, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been granted the opportunity to consolidate and expand its power in the country. The decision to evacuate American special operators came as a result of AQAP briefly seizing the city of al-Houta. On February 19, 2015, AQAP captured a Yemeni military base in the Bihan region of Shabwa province. Furthermore, increasing sectarian violence will only serve to worsen polarization among Sunni and Shiite citizens, providing an ample source of recruitment for Al-Qaeda. Nasser bin Ali al Ansi, a high-ranking leader within both AQAP and the wider global network, was quick to denounce the "rafidah" and proclaim itself as a source of protection for Sunni Muslims after the Houthi's startling victories in January. So while the government collapses due to pressure from internal divisions, Al-Qaeda will be given free reign to expand its influence across Yemen's southern and eastern provinces.

It is clear that a new dynamic has emerged within Yemen's civil war, where three significant factions vie against one another for power in the country. Two powerful players, Al-Qaeda and Houthi separatists, both threaten American security interests in the country by undermining Hadi's grip on power. What remains unclear is how the United States intends on addressing this threat.

Map of jihadist training camps in Iraq and Syria. Map made by Bill Roggio and Caleb Weiss for The Long War Journal.

The US has launched almost 3000 airstrikes in Iraq and Syria since September 2014. Despite this, the Islamic State continues to churn out more recruits and more fighters at its various training camps in Iraq and Syria. Other jihadi groups are doing the same.Estimates based on jihadist social media accounts, press reporting, and statements released by the US Central Command (CENTCOM) and the French Ministry of Defense (MoD) suggest that there are currently more than 90 jihadist training camps in Iraq and Syria (see map above).The Al Nusrah Front, al Qaeda's official branch in Syria, runs at least 20 camps, while jihadist groups allied to Nusrah run 31 camps. The other 41 camps are ran by the Islamic State. At least 10 camps overall are exclusively for children. Furthermore, there are likely more camps in operation in Iraq and Syria that are not publicized and have not been publicized. However, some camps are likely to no longer be in operation. According to CENTCOM and the French MOD, Coalition aircraft have conducted strikes on training camps in Iraq and Syria at least 21 times. Of these, at least 19 airstrikes have targeted camps ran by the Islamic State, while at least two strikes targeted camps ran by Al Nusrah's "Khorasan Group".In September, when the U.S.-led coalition launched strikes in Syria, the U.S. forces expanded their strikes to the "Khorasan Group", which was allegedly plotting attacks on Western targets. Further strikes were conducted on the group in November, which the Defense Department says, " was plotting to attack in Europe or the homeland, and we took decisive action to protect our interests and remove their capability to act." Despite this expansion of strikes beyond IS, many jihadist training camps remain untouched by American bombs.The camps are important targets because they are crucial for recruitment, propaganda and training. These very same tactics allow these groups to make significant gains on the battlefield. The head of the Defense Intelligence Agency recently said that Al Nusrah stands the very real potential to gain ground in Syria in 2015. Undoubtedly, the methods and tactics taught these camps help in that endeavor. However, these same tactics have the potential to be used in attacks on the West.In light of the revelation that at least one of the Paris attackers attended an al Qaeda training camp in Yemen, or the attackers in this week's deadly attack in Tunisia attending a jihadist training camp in Libya, the danger of jihadist training camps in Iraq and Syria should be even more evident. While al Qaeda has traditionally trained recruits for local insurgencies or to help allied groups, it has allocated some recruits to external operations such as the "Khorasan Group". The Islamic State could very well do the same. Military tactics taught in the campsLooking at training camps ran by Al Nusrah, the Islamic State, as well as its Sabri's Jamaat, Junud al Sham, Jamaat Ahadun Ahad, and Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad, one can get a good idea of the military tactics being taught to new jihadist recruits. As said above, these tactics are taught mainly for use on the battlefield, but bear the very real potential of being used in terror attacks in the native countries of these recruits. The Al Nusrah Front, which runs training camps in Aleppo, Idlib, Homs, Hama, Damascus, Daraa and Quneitra, often shows off the tactics shown in its camps. However, in its most recent picture series, it showed off it weapons training for new recruits. Recruits, as seen below, are shown learning how to properly handle and shoot AK-47's.

The Islamic State also likes to tout its training camps. A prime example is that of its Sabri's Jamaat, a unit comprised of Dagestani's, Uzbek's and other Central Asians. In a video uploaded to YouTube, the unit showed off its fighters partaking in a series of physical exercises and weapons training. However, the end of the video showed fighters learning more advanced skills, such as clearing buildings. The photo below shows fighters from Sabri's Jamaat rehearsing forced entry techniques using what appears to be a flashbang grenade.

Additionally, the Islamic State has showcased its training for snipers near Kirkuk in Iraq. These pictures showed several recruits with Dragunov SVD sniper rifles in a wooded training camp named after Abu Omar al Baghdadi, the former emir of al Qaeda in Iraq. Islamic State snipers are commonly advertised in IS propaganda, including most recently with more advanced US-made Mk. 14 EBR rifles – likely seized from Iraqi special forces.

Junud al Sham, a Chechen-led group in Latakia allied with Al Nusrah and headed by the US-blacklisted Muslim Shishani and veterans of the Chechen jihad, has promoted other examples of tactics being taught in jihadist camps. In recent photos released by the group, Muslim Shishani is shown teaching some of his fighters in how to conduct reconnaissance missions. Fighters can be seen wearing ghille suits for concealment, while other fighters are practicing stalking adversaries in a wooded environment. According to the group, the fighters shown make up its "Recon Team 1" implying that they have multiple reconnaissance teams.

Jamaat Ahadun Ahad is another Chechen group allied with Al Nusrah and Junud al Sham which operates in Latakia. Not much is known about the group as they prefer not to publicize their activity. However, in August 2014, a video was uploaded to YouTube showing a training camp ran by the group. In several scenes, its fighters are shown practicing small unit tactics. These tactics include learning setting an ambush, as well as methods to properly maneuver on the battlefield.

The group Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad, is a small Uzbek group that operates alongside Al Nusrah and the larger Uzbek group, Imam Bukhari Jamaat, in Aleppo. In its training camp video uploaded to YouTube two months ago, its fighters are shown being instructed on how to operate a heavy machine gun mounted on a technical (armed pickup truck), how to clear buildings, and even kidnapping techniques. A video uploaded later to it channel also shows the group teaching recruits how to build and set improvised explosive devices.

Several groups have showcased training with western weapons, including the Islamic State and Jaish al Muhajireen wal Ansar (JMA). JMA, which considers itself the Syrian branch of the al Qaeda-affiliated Caucasus Emirate, has shown at least one fighter training with the Heckler and Koch HK416. The Islamic State, on the other hand, has showed off its use of the M16 on numerous occasions; the M16 were likely captured from the Iraqi Security Forces. How a fighter in JMA obtained an HK416 remains unclear.

Considering Turkey’s porous border and the number of foreign fighters believed to be in Syria and Iraq, it should be worrying that so many terrorist training camps lie on Europe’s doorstep. Lessons learned in a training camp in Iraq or Syria bears the potential of being used in a terrorist attack when these foreign fighters return to their native countries. The international coalition should do more to target these camps in both Iraq and Syria to help mitigate this threat.

- Caleb

Special thanks to Patrick Megahan of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in helping to edit this article.