Election 2018: The Home Stretch

Voting booths stand ready in downtown Minneapolis on Thursday, Sept. 20, 2018, for Friday's opening of early voting in Minnesota. Minnesota and South Dakota are tied for the earliest start in the country for early voting in the 2018 midterm elections. (AP Photo/Steve Karnowski)

One month from today, Americans head to the polls. As we move into the home stretch, here are the things we’re watching most closely. The new issue of AEI’s Political Report guides you through them. Here are some of the highlights.

The Enthusiasm Edge: Both Gallup and Pew recently reported that overall enthusiasm for the November contest is at record levels. Gallup described the level as “significantly higher” than in six prior midterms,” and Pew said it was “at its highest level during any midterm in more than two decades!” Gallup shows similar levels of enthusiasm among registered Democrats and Republicans about the contest. Fifty-eight percent of Republicans compared to 61 percent of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic than usual. Pew gives the Democrats a substantial edge. Sixty-seven percent of them say they are more enthusiastic than usual compared to 59 percent of the Republicans. In a September CNN poll, 50 percent of Republicans and 55 percent of Democrats said they were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting. In Fox’s September poll, 73 percent of Democrats and 70 percent of Republicans said they were extremely or very interested in the elections. All these samples are of people who tell the pollsters they are registered to vote.

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll measures election interest among registered voters on a 1–10 scale, with “one” meaning not at all interested and “10” meaning very interested. Sixty-five percent of Democrats were at the points 9 and 10 indicating high interest in their September poll; 61 percent of Republicans were. In Wall Street Journal Janet Hook’s reporting on the poll, Republicans were closing the enthusiasm gap compared to NBC/WSJ’s earlier 2018 surveys. The Democrats had held “an aggregate 12-point advantage in the share of supporters showing high interest” in the polls they conducted in the first eight months of the year, she wrote. In another Gallup question asked in September, roughly equal numbers of Democrats (72 percent) and Republicans (70 percent) said they are absolutely certain to vote. Only 43 percent of independents gave that response. We don’t know at this point what effect, if any, the hearings on Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court will have voter interest. Nor is it possible to know if some unforeseen event could change the enthusiasm dynamic we see now.

Top Issues: In three recent polls (CNN, NBC/WSJ, and Pew) that asked registered voters what issues will be most important to their vote, familiar issues such as the economy and health care rank near or at the top. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say the economy will be important in deciding how they will vote, while Democrats are more likely to give priority to health care. The NBC/WSJ and the CNN polls included different measure that inquired about corruption or the influence of special interests in their polls. In the NBC/WSJ poll, Democrats and Republicans were equally concerned about “reducing the influence of special interests and corruption in Washington.” In the CNN poll, Democrats put a higher priority on “corruption” than did Republicans. Trade ranked last of eight issues in the NBC/WSJ poll, with 49 percent describing it as the single most important or a very important issue to their vote. Fifty-nine percent of Republicans compared to 44 percent of Democrats gave that response. In the CNN poll, Democrats gave the issue a slightly higher priority than did Republicans, 68 to 62 percent. In the CNN poll, 79 percent of Democrats and 74 percent of Republicans said taxes would be extremely or very important to them.

The Pew poll included Supreme Court appointments as a category registered voters could choose, and it took the top place in the poll. Eighty-one percent of registered voters who said they planned to support the Democratic candidate said it was a very important issue compared to 72 percent of those who said they planned to support the Republican candidate.

Only CNN asked about the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 elections. Forty-five percent said it would be extremely or very important to their vote. This issue produced the widest Democratic-Republican gap in their poll: 18 percent of Republicans and 79 percent of Democrats give it high importance.

We also looked at party issue advantages in four recent polls (Quinnipiac University, NBC/WSJ, Fox, and Pew). In three of the four, people believed Republicans would do a better job on the economy. In all four polls, people thought the Democratic Party would do better on health care. Democrats had the advantage on immigration; Republicans on illegal immigration and border security. Republicans had a small advantage on taxes in the three polls that asked about it.

Trump: And, finally, what about President Trump? We usually think of first midterm elections as referenda on the performance of a president. More registered voters in the new Pew poll said he would be a factor (60 percent) than gave that response about Barack Obama in 2014 (52 percent) or in 2010 (57 percent) or George W. Bush (57 percent). More voters said their vote for Congress would be a vote against Trump (37 percent) than a vote for (23 percent). Thirty-seven percent said Trump would not be much of a factor in their vote.