Nigel Dodds says he is ‘hopeful and optimistic’ about the chances for a pan-unionist election pact in Northern Ireland.
Photograph: Paul McErlane for the Guardian

Labour backbenchers would prefer the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) to prop up an Ed Miliband-led government rather than rely on the Scottish nationalists, according to the Northern Irish politician who could be a kingmaker after the general election.

Nigel Dodds said that he believed some Labour MPs have told him they would prefer the support of his party – traditionally seen as closer to the Conservatives – rather than the SNP, which on current polls is the party most likely to provide Labour with an overall majority.

In an interview with the Guardian, Dodds said: “It stands to reason that Labour should not rely on SNP votes and the enormously high price the nationalists would extract off Ed Miliband.

“I know that many people in the Labour party are deeply concerned about that prospect because it could be the death knell of the Labour party in Scotland. Because if they go down this route they will basically be saying to Labour supporters in Scotland that it’s OK to vote for the SNP in the future.”

The DUP is expected to win eight or nine seats at Westminster in May, and the MP for North Belfast added that he was confident a pan-unionist election pact in Northern Ireland could deliver 11 to 12 seats in the next parliament for unionism in general.

Indicating that the DUP would be open to post-election talks with both Labour and the Conservatives, Dodds emphasised that the DUP “would not be doctrinaire” about which party it would support if there was no clear overall majority in parliament.

“We are not like the Greens or the nationalists who state that they would never support the Conservatives in government. The DUP will make its decision based on getting the best possible deal for Northern Ireland while getting it right on the big national questions including the survival of the union.”

Dodds argued that a Labour-SNP arrangement could have serious consequences for the future of the UK. “I think everybody that supports the union should be very, very concerned about the prospect of a large swath of nationalist MPs holding the balance of power and being able to dictate to the Labour party for instance. That would lead to the break up of the United Kingdom.

“So the DUP will be going into the next parliament as a strong advocate for all the parties to be doing more to strengthen the union. I think it’s vitally important that the next government is not relying on the votes of those that want to break up the United Kingdom.”

While stressing that he has had lots conversations with people in all parties, including Ukip – some of whose leaders met the DUP in Belfast last week Dodds said that a “considerable number” of Labour MPs have stated their preference for a deal with his party rather than any arrangement with the nationalists.

“MPs in both main parties, including Labour, have said they would be comfortable working with us as they have done in the current parliament. We, for example, joined Labour in our opposition to the bedroom tax, which the DUP successfully kept out of Northern Ireland.

“There are some people in the Labour leadership keeping open the possibility of doing deals with a nationalist bloc but there are plenty of others in the Labour party including MPs who I speak to who feel that that would be a catastrophic step for them and also wrong for the union to do such a deal. Imagine a government of the UK propped up by people who want to break up the UK.”

Dodds said that while it was “not appropriate or right” to draw up a list of demands as the price for DUP support, the main parties know the broad outline of what it would be seeking. The core of a DUP kingmaking deal would be a new economic aid package for Northern Ireland, he said, adding that the party is not interested in joining a coalition cabinet.

“The DUP successfully negotiated an extra £2bn for Northern Ireland in the Stormont house agreement over Christmas and the new year; we persuaded the government in London to allow the Stormont executive to set our own lower corporation tax rate here; we managed to get airport duty tax devolved so it can be lowered, and many other achievements. The DUP will deliver again for Northern Ireland on the economy when we are in a position of strength after May.”

Dodds also said that the DUP would be advising its voters to back an exit from the European Union if there is a referendum on Europe while the next parliament is in power.

Other issues that may be part of a deal would include defending the armed forces against further cuts and one area of controversy that may prove to be a dealbreaker with Labour – a UK-wide referendum on EU membership, Dodds said.

If there was an in-out vote on Europe, Dodds warned that the DUP would tell their supporters to vote for an EU exit unless the next prime minister was able to “regain British sovereignty on issues like border controls and immigration”.

On a possible pan-unionist pact, Dodds said he was “hopeful and optimistic” that talks between the DUP and the Ulster Unionists could lead to an arrangement where the parties would give each other a free run in at least three – possibly four – Westminster constituencies

• The headline of this article was amended on 10 February 2015. The original incorrectly stated that the Ulster Unionist party leader made the comment about Labour MPs, rather than the leader of the Democratic Unionist party.