Viewpoint: Musical Chairs

Lost amid all the angst and anger surrounding the cancellation of
UFC 151 is the fact that the light heavyweight -- or light
heavyweight/middleweight -- pecking order has grown increasingly
muddled.

The man at the top, Jon Jones, has
already been established by oddsmakers as a heavy betting favorite
(as high as -1200) in his UFC
152 showdown with former promotional 205-pound king Vitor
Belfort. No surprise there. Whether the opponent is Belfort,
Dan
Henderson, Chael
Sonnen, Lyoto
Machida, Mauricio
Rua, Alexander
Gustafsson, Christian M’Pumbu , CM Punk or Ron Artest, Jonny
Bones will be expected to win -- and win handily -- in all bouts
for the foreseeable future. No amount of ill will toward the
champion is going to change that fact.

What is not as clear is who is next in line should Jones take care
of business and dispatch “The Phenom” come Sept. 22. Several men
have a legitimate claim, and, at first glance, none seems to be
more convincing than the other. Here is a look at the Top 5
candidates for the No. 1 contender status following UFC 152.

Dan
Henderson: Coach speak tells us that no player should
lose his starting job as a result of an injury. Wally Pipp and
countless other professional athletes would beg to differ. It seems
unfair to deny “Hendo” a title shot simply because he hurt his knee
during training camp, but the increasingly demanding
UFC calendar waits for no man. While Henderson’s camp has
already made it clear it believes the former two-division
Pride Fighting Championships titleholder should reclaim his
place upon returning to the Octagon, much depends upon how quickly
his knee heals. Any type of significant setback means that the
Team Quest product could get leapfrogged.

Chael
Sonnen: If you listened to the now-infamous audio from
the UFC 151 conference call, you would think that UFC President
Dana White was all but ready to erect a statue in Sonnen’s honor
outside the Ultimate Fighting Championship offices in Las Vegas. It
might not be fair, but no one emerged from the cancellation debacle
smelling sweeter than the self-proclaimed “Gangster from West
Linn.” Without a viable 205-pound win of which to speak, Sonnen has
used a crafty promotional campaign to launch himself to the
forefront of the championship discussion -- something that simply
beating Forrest
Griffin in December would not have done. It does not hurt to be
one of the White’s favorites, and Sonnen’s ability to sell fights
makes a potential matchup with Jones all the more lucrative,
regardless of how lopsided the actual result might be.

Lyoto
Machida File Photo

Don't forget about Machida.

Lyoto
Machida: Following his impressive knockout of Ryan Bader at
UFC on Fox 4, Machida was named No. 1 contender by White. “His
management has been all over me, terrorizing me to get him back to
the title,” White said after the Aug. 4 event. “What I can tell you
is he wants it bad. That’s very important to me -- how bad a guy
actually wants that fight -- and Machida wants it bad.” Apparently
he does not want it bad enough to rematch Jones with only a month
of camp under his belt, which is understandable considering the
results of their first meeting, when the Jackson’s
Mixed Martial Arts product submitted “The Dragon” with a
guillotine choke in the second round at UFC 140. While Machida has
not received nearly as much heat for refusing a UFC 152 bout with
Jones as the champ did for refusing a UFC 151 pairing with Sonnen,
it now appears that the karateka will have to add a quality win to
his resume before he gets another chance at UFC gold.

Mauricio
Rua: Though he was outdone by Machida in the UFC on
Fox 4 free-for-all, Rua makes this list instead of Rashad
Evans because “Shogun” was supposedly offered the Jones fight
after Machida declined. Like Machida, Rua did not feel that a month
would be adequate time to prepare for Jones. Considering the
lopsided nature of their first meeting -- which earned
Sherdog.com’s “Beatdown of the Year” honors for 2011 -- it is hard
to fault Rua here. While his scrap against Brandon Vera
was highly entertaining and he ultimately emerged with a victory,
it was not the type of performance to inspire confidence that Rua
would fare any better in a second meeting with Jones. If the
Brazilian makes a statement against Alexander
Gustafsson in December, then he will find himself right back in
the title mix.

Alexander
Gustafsson: The lanky Swede rounds out the contenders
list based on his considerable potential. Gustafsson has remained
quietly in the background since his three-round verdict over
Thiago
Silva on his home soil in April. Thus far, the promotion has
been content to take its time with the 25-year-old, but that will
change when he locks horns with Rua at UFC on Fox 5 in the biggest
test of his career to date. The overall skill set of “The Mauler”
makes him the most interesting potential adversary for Jones down
the road, but do not expect to see that fight until 2013 at
best.

As we so painfully learned last week, nothing in the MMA world is
set in stone. The five men listed above are far from alone -- as
the likes of Rashad
Evans and Phil Davis
also figure to have a say in the molding of the division; or
perhaps someone such as Glover
Teixeira emerges as the next hot 205-pound commodity. At the
moment, there is no clear-cut favorite for No. 1 contender status
at light heavyweight. The most fair and just choice: a healthy
Henderson, although a little less than a month ago both Machida and
Rua thought they were competing for a crack at the belt. The most
potential to beat Jones: Gustafsson. The biggest payday:
Sonnen.

Although Jones made the right choice by not accepting a bout with
the former middleweight title challenger at UFC 151, the fight with
Sonnen needs to be made at some point. He has emerged as White’s
champion without possessing a title. He has talked, tweeted and
taunted his way to this point, and Jones has to be at least a
little bit irked by the whole routine. He would not be human if he
did not want some kind of redemption for the UFC 151 fallout.
Sonnen is neither the most logical nor the most competitive matchup
for the champion. However, Internet traffic suggests he is the most
bankable and buzzworthy opponent out there.

Does that mean Sonnen-Jones is destined to happen? If you have been
watching events unfold for the past few days, you already know the
answer.