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Report ranks Wilmington No. 7 for risk of storm-surge damage

Published: Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 11:18 a.m.

Last Modified: Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 11:18 a.m.

Nearly 115,000 in the Wilmington area are vulnerable to storm surge damage from hurricanes, earning the Port City a seventh-place ranking among the eastern seaboard's top 10 most threatened cities in a new statistical report.

The report, compiled by Irvine, Calif.-based analytics company CoreLogic, outlines the number and value of at-risk single-family homes by compiling data on 135.6 million properties, or more than 91 percent of all houses in the country. That information is overlaid with simulations that mimic hurricane conditions, projecting the maximum height and reach of storm surge from each event.

"We don't base it off past events," said Tom Jeffrey, senior hazard scientist at CoreLogic. "We try to produce what we consider to be a full range of storms, and then we simulate where that overland flow is going to go."

The report focuses solely on potential storm surge and flood damage, excluding other common hurricane risks, such as wind. The surges, defined as abnormal water levels above the predicted tides, are often the most destructive part of hurricanes, causing widespread property damage and large death tolls. During Hurricane Katrina, for example, more than 1,500 people lost their lives; a large portion of those casualties occurred as a result of storm surge, according to the National Hurricane Center.

According to the report, 114,695 homes in the Wilmington metropolitan area are threatened by hurricane storm surges, with a total structural value of $38.2 billion. The eastern seaboard's most at-risk location is New York City, with 447,428 vulnerable properties at a total value of $205.7 billion. Miami - 239,910 homes, worth $100.1 billion - is second, one of five Florida cities to place in the top 10.

Prior to this year, the Cape Fear region had never appeared on the list, but the jump may be less related to increased storm hazards than improved real estate data.

"We haven't decided, all of a sudden, that you folks are right in the middle of it. The hazard hasn't really changed," Jeffrey said. "What has changed is our ability to draw and find property parcels. Your real estate numbers bumped up, so you're higher on the list, and it's really because we found where more properties actually exist than we were able to find before."

Mortgage brokers and insurance companies tend to be interested in the report, though the secretive and competitive nature of those industries makes it difficult to gauge how, exactly, it's used. But the data, broken down by ZIP code, also allows homeowners to assess storm surge risk in their specific neighborhoods.

In the Cape Fear region, the collected information encompasses a handful of ZIP codes, stretching from Southport (28461) to Bolivia (28422) to Wilmington (28411, 28409, 28405).

"Some hazards like wildfire - as a homeowner, you can mitigate against those very well. I don't know that you can necessarily mitigate a storm surge or hurricane," Jeffrey said. "You're not going to build a wall around your property. But if you're more aware, you can plan a bit better. If a warning comes, you'll know your risk and you can evacuate sooner."

<p>Nearly 115,000 in the Wilmington area are vulnerable to storm surge damage from hurricanes, earning the Port City a seventh-place ranking among the eastern seaboard's top 10 most threatened cities in a new statistical report.</p><p>The report, compiled by Irvine, Calif.-based analytics company CoreLogic, outlines the number and value of at-risk single-family homes by compiling data on 135.6 million properties, or more than 91 percent of all houses in the country. That information is overlaid with simulations that mimic hurricane conditions, projecting the maximum height and reach of storm surge from each event. </p><p>"We don't base it off past events," said Tom Jeffrey, senior hazard scientist at CoreLogic. "We try to produce what we consider to be a full range of storms, and then we simulate where that overland flow is going to go."</p><p>The report focuses solely on potential storm surge and flood damage, excluding other common hurricane risks, such as wind. The surges, defined as abnormal water levels above the predicted tides, are often the most destructive part of hurricanes, causing widespread property damage and large death tolls. During <a href="http://www.starnewsonline.com/section/hurricane"><b>Hurricane</b></a> Katrina, for example, more than 1,500 people lost their lives; a large portion of those casualties occurred as a result of storm surge, according to the National Hurricane Center.</p><p>According to the report, 114,695 homes in the Wilmington metropolitan area are threatened by hurricane storm surges, with a total structural value of $38.2 billion. The eastern seaboard's most at-risk location is New York City, with 447,428 vulnerable properties at a total value of $205.7 billion. Miami - 239,910 homes, worth $100.1 billion - is second, one of five Florida cities to place in the top 10.</p><p>Prior to this year, the Cape Fear region had never appeared on the list, but the jump may be less related to increased storm hazards than improved real estate data.</p><p>"We haven't decided, all of a sudden, that you folks are right in the middle of it. The hazard hasn't really changed," Jeffrey said. "What has changed is our ability to draw and find property parcels. Your real estate numbers bumped up, so you're higher on the list, and it's really because we found where more properties actually exist than we were able to find before."</p><p>Mortgage brokers and insurance companies tend to be interested in the report, though the secretive and competitive nature of those industries makes it difficult to gauge how, exactly, it's used. But the data, broken down by ZIP code, also allows homeowners to assess storm surge risk in their specific neighborhoods.</p><p>In the Cape Fear region, the collected information encompasses a handful of ZIP codes, stretching from Southport (28461) to Bolivia (28422) to Wilmington (28411, 28409, 28405). </p><p>"Some hazards like wildfire - as a homeowner, you can mitigate against those very well. I don't know that you can necessarily mitigate a storm surge or hurricane," Jeffrey said. "You're not going to build a wall around your property. But if you're more aware, you can plan a bit better. If a warning comes, you'll know your risk and you can evacuate sooner."</p><p>Kate Elizabeth Queram: 343-2217</p><p>On <a href="http://www.starnewsonline.com/section/news41"><b>Twitter</b></a>: @kate_goes_bleu</p>