An Algorithmic Take on This Week’s Central Bank Chatter

Monday, September 25, 2017

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The Most Important Central Bank Releases This Week

Despite last week’s deluge of central bank communications, this week may be even more jam-packed. Fed policymakers are slated to deliver eleven speeches as they work to explain balance sheet unwinding and clarify whether another rate hike will happen this year, despite “mysteriously” low inflation. Not to be outdone by Fed speakers, ECB policymakers are scheduled to deliver 10 speeches of their own. These speeches may clarify a timeline for tapering asset purchases. The BOJ meeting minutes released this week, along with a speech by Governor Kuroda, will likely indicate continued stimulus, but growing willingness to tighten policy in the future.

The Bank of England finds itself in a very different position than the Fed, ECB, or BOJ as inflation has risen above target while growth continues to lag. This rising inflation is obviously cause for concern and raises the possibility of a rate hike, but this week’s Financial Policy Committee Statement is likely to highlight underlying weakness in the UK economy. Conversely, nothing downbeat or even neutral has come out of the RBA recently, though this week’s speech from Debelle is likely to be a bit less hawkish than recent rhetoric.

Many are hoping that the speech by Governor Poloz from the BOC this week will shed light on the bank’s significant hawkish policy shift over the last couple meetings. Swedish policymakers will likely be on defense as well, but they are defending continued dovish policy in the face of improving economic conditions. Norwegian policymakers will likely continue their recent trend of exceedingly neutral remarks while the SNB’s balance of payments data is likely to shed light on its continued currency market interventions to prevent the CHF from appreciating further.

In the only policy meeting this week, RBNZ policymakers are likely to hold rates and issue a neutral or slightly dovish statement. The recent decline in RBNZ sentiment is seemingly indicative of disappointment about solid, but not accelerating growth in the Kiwi market.

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