While I never expect the floods of old days to come back , If the sanctions and some laws were changed could we see a fair amount of new surplus come in ?

Think Silver Age of Surplus Firearms???

I see most surplus collectors are in their 50-70s. Most of us old guys picked up their stuff when it was cheep or not import marked during the First Golden Age of Surplus firearms, during the 1950-60s and then again during the Second Golden Age, 1990-2010 -mostly import marked goodies. Turks and Mosins by the box full, or one of each date since they were $59-100 back then. So now you younger guys will come onto, the lets say "Silver age "- when us old guys get health problems or just drop dead and the collection of 50-100 rifles goes on the market by the kids, wife, or old guy that is down sizing. The family wants to get rid of the stuff and not spends years at shows selling off a group. They want it gone ASAP so you are starting to see more tables with collections at the price the old guy paid, or greatly reduced prices. Real good stuff.

Currently prices are nuts. The dealers have broke the price barrier. Not too many buyers are paying top buck or more than top price unless its something real odd, in a unique condition, or rare. Less of the 20-40 average age group is at shows due to these high prices. High prices kind of bum out beginning collectors. Fewer have served in the Armed services and have no idea about firearms. Some of the younger group are paint ball or airsofft players going to a gun show for the first time or to the range to fire a real rifle with an experienced friend. Less of the 20-30 age bracket are into gun shows, hunting, sports shooting. Only some the younger group are seen at shows, and most are into Conceal carry mode, not the relic surplus firearms or hunting sports related rifles. Most you see at gun shows that are under 40, are not looking for surplus firearms-- they want the black rifles or conceal carry pistols. The best show where you see the younger crowd is when the gun show is associated with craft show, antique or train show in the same larger complex. The gun show gets people from the other shows just coming in to see what a gun show actually looks like. There are few that actually consider range shooting, or competition shooting as a sport. The younger male group it seems likes the semi auto black stuff. I do see more younger 30-40 year old females looking for conceal carry pistols or a shot gun for the home. Most live alone.

I also tend to only go to shows that favor or have more dealers that sell surplus rifles so I may not be on point. But if you have cash, and you are into the old surplus stuff, and not the black rifle garbage, in the next 10-15 years, surplus stuff will be coming out of the wood work- great stuff picked up and stashed in gun safes years ago will be sold. This will be the Silver Age of Surplus. So I believe you will see more surplus at shows from estates. This is already happening too a small degree. Prices will be higher than a dealer would pay at their bottom of the barrel offers, they got to make at least 30-50%. But prices will be way less than current market at estate tables. I do not see this trend at auctions- some of the good rare stuff will go beyond top value at big auctions. Bidders be crazy and lots of bidding wars from high rollers. But this type does not venture out to the less unadvertised farm auctions or house estate sales. Deals are found at such small local sales , but it is a matter of luck to stumble onto such sales. Some find deals at rummage sales. These are generally where only a small number of firearms are found in the estate.

Large collections of 100 or so rifle or pistols will be sold off at auction or local shows. Auctions like to lay claim to 30-40 % of the price. Hence, I see more collections at small local gun shows were friends or a family member sells off the stuff. They do not want to get taken by a dealer/buyer offering half price. Take a firearm to Cabelas and see what you get . Most would rather set up at a show and dump the stuff. That is how I just got a Mas 36 at $85 (the price the former owner paid) and some other deals at the last show. The owner died and his wife was disposing of the goodies at fantastic prices. For specific people- Non resellers, the price was what the guy had paid when he obtained the rifle. She figured as long as she get her time, lunch, gas & milage, and table/motel fees out of it, she is happy. She just wanted to pass the stuff onto collectors that wanted it and would keep it in their collections. It was funny, when a dealer wanted to buy 6 items the prices doubled, she wanted the stuff to go to fellow collectors. So for the younger group say in their 20s-40s that likes surplus goodies, the next 10 years is going to be the next big dump of surplus junk ( The Sliver age or 3rd Golden age) and I bet it will force prices back to a normal range. There will be a "surplus" of SURPLUS military stuff. There will also be a trend for lower prices due to lots of goodies and less takers. There are fewer young people hunting and the old sick guys like me are giving things up. You no longer see WW II vets bring their bring backs to a show. They are dead or to old to get around. I would rather hand out my stuff to friends for free or what I paid, then sell to a big time dealer. But less of the younger group is into military surplus firearms and military history in general.

Now areas like China, Cuba, Russia and some sand flea countries will have lots of old surplus firearms. But I do not see regulations getting lose, rather with the anti gun/hunting movements in Urban environments there will be a push to ban all firearms especially a movement to ban semiautomatics. There are many that want all firearms, even pellet and black powder banned. And WW II surplus ammunition is now turning 80 years old and its shelf life is coming to an end or most has been shot up. Boxes of 100 year old stuff is collectable-- not for shooting. Some cities you can not even sell collectable loaded ammo at antique shows. Lots of open market fair ground rummage /craft sales ban knifes and ammunition let alone firearms. I seem to think the price of surplus ammo is expensive. It' corrosive and not all the time reliable. Some new stuff is a better deal and reloading is getting expensive for the equipment and components. So new production ammo can be a better buy in the long run on certain calibers. The last big batch of surplus was those dragged in the mud, rusty, chinese T53s Mosins and we see they can not get rid of the glut of Yugo Toks in 7.62x25 due to ammo costs- surplus gone or banned from import. So we will be lucky if the CMP actually gets the USGI 45 autos, and who knows about the South Pacific or Korean lend lease stuff. That may be the next hord of surplus stuff to come to light. But it is nice to dream about huge amounts of inexpensive rifles like the $79 Mosins of days past. My bet is on the old surplus stuff reappearing from aging collectors, but prices may just lower a wee bit. And the rare stuff will always hold its value. You just have to be lucky, have cash, and get to the collections when they are sold off.

To old to fight and to old to run, a Jar head will just shoot and be done with you.

What 72 usmc has stated, is echoing throughout many similar forums, where such a question has been raised. Me thinks the anti crowd is gaining national ground, little by little, and here in Kali, cash & carry has been gone since 2014. I've never needed an 03, because I always did good on the street. Even now it's not that great, as most out of state transfers must go through an 01 FFL. PAX

72 usmc wrote:She just wanted to pass the stuff onto collectors that wanted it and would keep it in their collections. It was funny, when a dealer wanted to buy 6 items the prices doubled, she wanted the stuff to go to fellow collectors.

That was extremely generous of her - if I thought there were folks like that in my neck of the woods I might actually start going to gun shows again.

There are still options for surplus handguns but rifles have dried up and I don't see any large imports on the horizon. As for the coming collapse in prices, I don't see it happening. Prices are trending upwards on every military surplus firearm. Even stuff like Carcano's have gone up. Younger generations are interested in this stuff. Video games like Battlefield and call of duty being a strong contributing factor. Steyr M95 carbines have doubled in price thanks to battlefield 1. Gun show's have been dying a slow death for years. The exuberant price keep many away. I've been collecting for 10 years now and have bought half a dozen rifles from gunshows. Almost all of my purchases are online. Many dealers are going to auctions and buying this stuff up and listing it online.

I've witnessed this first hand. These same dealers also have "following's" of people with more money then sense. They pay stupid high prices for this stuff. As for the gun prohibitionists gaining ground on the national level I don't see it happening anytime soon. Unless there is a substantial change in public attitude towards firearms ownership I don't see any bans passing. Don't believe the lie of declining gun ownership. Think about it this way, in the early 90's when the assault weapons ban was passed, polling showed something like 70 percent of Americans supported it (in large part due to media propaganda). Even then they had to twist arms and bribe congress to pass it. Today these guns are very popular and public opinion is evenly split. In the last 10 years, most states have loosened gun laws with only a hand full of dark blue state adding restrictions. Gun rights advocates out number prohibitionists 20 to 1. Guns aren't going anywhere.

Studies and polls have shown that attitudes towards guns are changing. Support for guns is actually up, while gun ownership is actually down. A few people are buying loads of guns, but overall not as many people have guns. This trend is fairly gradual and it is not anywhere near 20-1 pro or con. I think it is more like 40-60 anti verses pro nationally give or take 5 points. This is a national average and on a per state basis this changes wildly so you could have 20-1 in certain parts of certain states depending on where you live.

During the Obama presidency I was amazed people thought he could change the laws with wide majorities in both the house and senate opposed to this. This would include many in his own party. Naturally I just growled as the politically unrealistic/unaware masses drove up gun prices way beyond what they were worth with a herd stampede mentality. Mass shootings were and still get vast media coverage, but no political movement. Until the anti-gun lobby can get 60 votes in the Senate, nothing will happen. Even with control of both houses and the presidency, NOTHING will happen. Simple majority budget reconciliation cannot create a new law. Now if the GOP goes nuclear and rids itself of the 60 vote majority needed in the senate this year on budget talks and wants to brave a 2018 midterm and 2020 presidential election and see what happens given the historically bad polls numbers, they would be fools from any conventional wisdom thinking long term.

From what I see, the electorate does not know what anti-gun laws are even on the books. The only background checks not on the books are sales between people in the same state and enforcing personal sales without a gun registry is relatively impossible. Increased punishments for crimes committed with guns are already on the books and unless you make those punishments increasingly prohibitive while finding and affording space to keep those who choose to use guns in crimes locked up, this isn't going to happen.

I think it is a safe bet that gun dealers will swoop up and claim collections at estate sales since the average gun buyer is likely working when those auctions take place. Now if the sellers go directly online the average buyer has a chance since they could easily afford to buy at a price the gun dealers would make little or any profit at. I usually buy via forums or on Gunbroker, so this this has shown to be true through personal experience, that is if you can be selective about what price you want to pay and not go overboard bidding in a price war.

Given the changing natural of sales with the rise of the internet, I believe more of these estates will be sold by the younger beneficiaries online than at estate auctions. Unless they have a history of going to gun shows, or obeyed the wishes of those giving away their collections, I doubt they will go near a gun show.

I do agree the younger generation is swayed by what they see in video games. I believe video game sales can and do dwarf movie sales at times. History books have guided me on my way, but I doubt that is generally true anymore. I was personally insulted how World of Warships depicted naval actions after having studied actual accounts and done some well researched table top miniature or board war-gaming. Sure its is more time consuming, but far more accurate. I would say first person shooter gaming is about the same. Last time I heard somebody game that way online they merely threw grenades into every room they went into. Considering most guys carried two grenades into battle, that's excessive. Sorry to tell them the average infantry man was merely carrying belts of ammo or magazines for the squad machine gun, not a one man wrecking crew. USMC battle allotment for a days worth of battle was 100 rounds of 30-06 and this is from "With The Old Breed" by Sledge, not a video game. I think British soldiers had 60 rounds each and two separate magazines for the squad's Bren gun. German infantry carried a belt or two for the MG as well.

Well, if the coastal states continue to enact individual laws banning or restricting certain guns, at least the inland ones with less buying power will benefit. Go forth wand keep looking. The hunt is half the fun of the hobby. Take Care.

Best Regards,

Mark

BTW, bitrcingr can smell a sale hundreds of miles away. My hats off to him. Oh where does he find those low, low prices. I don't imagine he has lost his touch.

BTW, French handguns can be had, but study the market and learn to make some of your own cases.

My 20-1 comment was in reference to activists like NRA members versus gun control groups like the Brady campaign or whatever they call it now. Gun control is a minor issue to most on the left, compared to universal health care and social justice issues. They tend not to be very dedicated on this issue unlike they're counterparts on the right, The 40 60 split sounds about right in regards to the general population. I find it very hard to believe that gun ownership is on the decline(maybe in certain areas).New gun ranges are popping up all over the place. In just my personal experience, diversity at shooting ranges has dramatically increased in recent years. You never used to see women and minority's, now it's not a uncommon occurrence. I also think a lot of people lie to the pollsters regarding the gun issue. Many gun owners are paranoid and are unwilling to tell a polling agency if they own guns. I agree with you on the gun prohibitionists not having 60 votes. Democrats require seats in pro gun states to attain a majority. As to finding good deals, it's getting harder and French stuff has really gone up! I did pick up a 1889 Belgian Mauser recently for a very reasonable price.

I did see some ownership numbers and compared to a few decades ago and gun ownership is actually down. That is a smaller percentage of people own guns. Gun sales are up of course. It kinda surprised me as well. Ranges in these parts are shutting down due to land development. South Dakota has fewer people per square inch than Ohio so it can have more ranges easily. If you live in the vicinity of any city of note, spaces for an outdoor range are prohibitive or expensive and I mean fairly far away from the downtown and beyond the suburbs. Locally the county just banned new outdoor permits.

I could see a new assault weapons ban happening in select states as that is quite legal for states to do. It all depends on the political mood in the state. With more states fighting gerrymandering laws, that will change as well. Got to get to work, got to run, HELP.

Best Regards,

Mark

BTW, haven't scored much. Going into BPCR now. Price of the lathe I wanted went up over $100 since the beginning of the year, argh, growl, argh.

Something else to factor in is infuriated people escaping from the more repressive states. The percentage of "true believers" in liberal idiotology will increase as a result. Those states will just get "progressively" worse.

Arguing with someone who denounces reason is like administering medicine to a corpse.