Trump is a risk. Landslides do American kancevica the oil market and the ruble?

Who won the presidential election in the U.S. Republican Donald trump can appoint the next Minister of energy of oil tycoon Harold Hamm. Its state 12 billion dollars he “amassed” on the use of new technologies in the development of shale deposits. Candidate Hamm says that if he really would head the us Department of energy, it is likely that the extraction of shale deposits in the United States will increase. And it is fraught with falling prices for “black gold”.

Back to 2014?

In favor of the version that the US can increase production of shale oil, and says that Donald trump advocated an increase in the extraction of raw materials and promised to support companies that use hydraulic fracturing technology.

In his campaign, trump said about the need for the resumption of frozen (just because of the fall in oil prices) wells. Moreover, the Republican called for the development of new fields.

Shale bubble. Cheap oil pushes out of the market producers from the United States

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Since mid-2014, when the price of “black gold” quickly went downstairs, in the United States began one after another to shut down drilling rigs. For comparison: in October 2014 in the United States, there were 1609 rigs, by January the number had dropped to 1366 pieces. Depreciating oil prices has even led to the first in the history of America, the bankruptcy of the oil company is a Texas manufacturer of shale hydrocarbons WBH Energy was unable to pay debts of 50 million dollars. It is clear that following the reduction in the number of drilling rigs declined and the volume of shale oil.

Two years ago, profitable for American kancevica cost of a barrel of the experts called 70 — $ 75. Today the line of profitability is the price of 40 — 50 dollars per barrel. The US manufacturers have adapted to the low prices for “black gold” and in the summer could increase oil production by 15 to 30%, according to data of the Ministry of energy States. According to the Wall Street Journal, market participants expressed their willingness to increase production costs of raw materials and thaw the preserved deposits. If Donald trump became President, to fulfill their promise to support shale oil producers, you can be sure that producers are happy to realize your wishes in life.

Oil shale deposits in the United States. Infographics

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“The new U.S. President plans to not support alternative energy, and shale oil production. In one of his speeches to reporters, he urged the government “to get out of the way” of the energy sector, criticizing the existing rules of the oil and coal industry. According to him, technological support for the idea of shale drilling will allow to explore more than 1,000 additional fields, which will ensure the creation of new jobs. Such activity will cause the inevitable growth of oil production in the United States, that will only aggravate the already acute problem of overproduction. This being said, when the tramp oil will remain under pressure, with corresponding impact on exchange rates,” emphasizes the lead analyst AMarkets Artem Deev.

In turn, the Deputy Chairman of the Board “Loco Bank” Andrey lyushin warns that in the long term from the Renaissance in the US oil shale industry gets hurt the ruble. “Trump is the risk for the commodity market, crude oil prices had already dipped, and then the ruble. Moreover, the victory trump is the risk for developing countries, and despite “good relations between Putin and the tramp”, the ruble will be in the General flow of commodity currencies,” he points out.