PFT’s Week Four picks

Posted by Mike Florio on September 27, 2012, 9:23 AM EDT

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In hindsight, I shouldn’t have complained about the Monday night debacle.

After all, I picked the Seahawks to win by a point and, thanks to the replacement officials, Seattle won by two. Since MDS picked the Pack, it allowed me to win the weekly contest with MDS by two, 9-7 versus 7-9.

Given the crazy, upside-down games from Week Three, I’ll take a winning record and run with it — as quickly as the Seahawks ran with their unwarranted win.

For the season, I’m now 27-21, and MDS is 26-22.

This week, we disagree on three games. All 15 of our picks appear below.

Browns at Ravens

MDS’s take: Browns rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden has actually looked decent the last two weeks, after a disastrous Week One. But the Ravens’ defense will bring far too much heat for Weeden to handle. I look for Haloti Ngata to pound Weeden into the turf a few times on Thursday night.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 27, Browns 6.

Florio’s take: The Browns are another close loss or two away from imploding completely. They won’t have to worry about another close loss on Thursday night.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 31, Browns 13.

Panthers at Falcons

MDS’s take: I still don’t believe the Panthers are as bad as they’ve looked this season, and that by the end of the year they could be fighting for a playoff spot. But Atlanta is the wrong place for the Panthers to try to get back on track.

MDS’s pick: Falcons 23, Panthers 17.

Florio’s take: The Falcons have beaten the Panthers four straight times, scoring 31 points exactly in each game. Atlanta could be on track to clinching the division by Thanksgiving.

Florio’s pick: Falcons 31, Panthers 14.

Patriots at Bills

MDS’s take: This is a fascinating game in the AFC East race, one that could establish the Bills as the favorites to win the division. I’ve been saying all year that the Bills have made the right moves to become playoff contenders this season, but I just think the Patriots, with their backs against the wall, are going to come out focused and ready to play their best game of the season.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 24, Bills 14.

Florio’s take: The Bills have beaten the Pats only once since the last time the Pats had a losing record. Buffalo is moving in the right direction, but New England needs this one badly.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 30, Bills 23.

Vikings at Lions

MDS’s take: Another fascinating divisional game, as the Vikings have a real opportunity here to establish themselves as surprising contenders in the NFC North. However, I see far too many matchup advantages for the Lions’ receivers against the Vikings’ secondary. Not just Calvin Johnson (who has a matchup advantage over every defensive back in the league) but also receivers Nate Burleson and Titus Young and tight end Brandon Pettigrew should be able to get open and get points on the board in Detroit.

MDS’s pick: Lions 28, Vikings 24.

Florio’s take: The Lions have won three straight in the series, but the Vikings are gaining confidence, The Lions continue to be more flawed than anyone realized. Receiver Jerome Simpson returns from suspension in time to help the Vikings take advantage of Detroit’s biggest weakness.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 24, Lions 16.

Titans at Texans

MDS’s take: The Texans are the best team in the AFC South by such a large margin that the question for me isn’t whether they’ll win the division but how quickly they’ll clinch. My guess is some time around Week 11. This win will be another step toward that.

MDS’s pick: Texans 34, Titans 10.

Florio’s take: Yeah, I picked the Titans to win the division. And if they upset the Texans on Sunday, the Titans will thrust themselves into the conversation. And if they upset the Texans, it will mean that I picked this specific game incorrectly. Despite last weekend’s epic in Nashville, the Titans aren’t nearly as good as I thought they’d be. The Texans are much better than I thought they’d be.

Florio’s pick: Texans 24, Titans 13.

Chargers at Chiefs

MDS’s take: The Chiefs looked pretty good against the Saints on Sunday, and the Chargers looked pretty bad against the Falcons on Sunday. But I’m expecting the Chargers to win, in a game that I have a hunch will come down to special teams, where the Chargers will make plays and the Chiefs will make mistakes.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 28, Chiefs 21.

Florio’s take: One week often changes everything. Last Sunday, the Chargers went from elite to “meh” status, and the Chiefs showed they’ve got some fight. Home team gets the edge in this one, especially if Jamaal Charles saved some yards for Sunday.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 24, Chargers 22.

49ers at Jets

MDS’s take: If not for the injury to Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis, I’d be very tempted to pick the 49ers to lose their second straight road game. But that Revis injury is devastating to the Jets not only because it radically changes what they can do on defense, but also because while seeing players and coaches on the Jets talking this week, you could practically feel the entire locker room deflating at the loss of their best player. I think the Jets are going to come out looking very bad on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 27, Jets 14.

Florio’s take: The difference between the 49ers defense and the Jets defense is that the 49ers didn’t put all their eggs in one island.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 20, Jets 13.

Seahawks at Rams

MDS’s take: The Seahawks don’t have any time to send thank-you notes to the league office for their gift on Monday night, because they’ve got a road trip to St. Louis on a short work week. I like the way Jeff Fisher’s defense is playing, and I think Russell Wilson will feel a lot of pressure, but Seattle’s defensive line will have Sam Bradford under pressure, and the Seahawks will win a low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 10, Rams 9.

Florio’s take: Short week, significant travel, improving opponent, and guilty conscience add up to trouble for the Seahawks in St. Louis.

Florio’s pick: Rams 14, Seahawks 12.

Dolphins at Cardinals

MDS’s take: It’s taken me a while to learn to believe in the Cardinals, but I’m there now. Which probably means they’re going to lose. But I’m picking them anyway.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 24, Dolphins 7.

Florio’s take: This has the potential to be one of those early-season “correction” games. But how can the Dolphins win if they can’t score any offensive touchdowns against once of the best defenses in the league?

Florio’s pick: Cardinals 17, Dolphins 6.

Bengals at Jaguars

MDS’s take: I loved the game Bengals offensive coordinator Jay Gruden called on Sunday against the Redskins. Look for Bengals receiver A.J. Green to have another big day against the Jaguars.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 28, Jaguars 24.

Florio’s take: It would be fitting for the Bengals, a week after finally winning a game they were supposed to lose, to lose a game they’re supposed to win. But the Bengals are better than the Jaguars on both sides of the ball — and the Jaguars will have a hard time keeping up with a suddenly dynamic and diverse offense.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 24, Jaguars 14.

Raiders at Broncos

MDS’s take: It says something about what we’ve come to expect from Peyton Manning that he had 330 yards, two touchdowns and no turnovers on Sunday against a very good Texans defense, and yet everyone is talking about how he’s just not the same. Playing a weak Raiders defense will result in Manning looking a lot better, and the Broncos improving to 2-2.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 35, Raiders 14.

Florio’s take: Peyton Manning won’t need much arm strength to move the ball against a defense that can’t do much to stop him. Or anyone.

Florio’s pick: Broncos 27, Raiders 17.

Saints at Packers

MDS’s take: Raise your hand if you predicted these two teams would be a combined 1-5 heading into this game. I see the Packers’ problems as much more correctable than the Saints’ problems, and I see Aaron Rodgers having a big day against a shaky Saints defense.

MDS’s pick: Packers 27, Saints 17.

Florio’s take: The Saints can thank the Seahawks and the replacement officials for what they’re about to endure.

Florio’s pick: Packers 45, Saints 17.

Redskins at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: The Bucs have a bad offense and a good defense; the Redskins have a good offense and a bad defense. I like Tampa Bay’s defense to keep it close and the Redskins’ defense to give up a big play at the wrong time.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 14, Redskins 10.

Florio’s take: That win over the Saints in New Orleans is looking less impressive by the week. And the Bucs are better than their record would suggest.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 20, Redskins 16.

Giants at Eagles

MDS’s take: The Eagles need to bounce back in a big way after laying an egg against the Cardinals. I think they’re going to, with Michael Vick finally making it through a game without a turnover.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 24, Giants 21.

Florio’s take: Eagles coach Andy Reid does his best work when his back is against the wall. And his back is already against the wall. And he said just enough this week to put his quarterback’s back against the wall, too.

Florio’s pick: Eagles 27, Giants 24.

Bears at Cowboys

MDS’s take: As impressive as the Bears’ defense has been, I think they’ll struggle with the explosiveness of Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray, who should have a huge game in a Dallas win.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 34, Bears 20.

Florio’s take: If the Cowboys can keep Tony Romo in two or fewer pieces (factoring in the possibility of the partial loss of an ear), the Cowboys should win this one.

71 responses to “PFT’s Week Four picks”

I agree with you Mike, after this weekend, Vikes will be ALONE in 1st place. Lions have ALOT of warts, and the Vikings now have a downfield threat with Simpson…..not to mention the NFL reception leader, Percy Harvin, and AP getting stronger by the week.

Vikes D is getting better and better, as the niners had no answers……Vikes prove the manhandling of the niners was no fluke!

The Browns have a couple things going in their favor, though. This will be Baltimore’s fourth game in 18 days, they’re coming off an emotional win from a Sunday night game, and they could potentially be overlooking Cleveland. The Browns typically win one or two games they shouldn’t each year and this could be one of them.

after the way the vikings outplayed us, i wouldn’t be so confident in new york. Even the Revis is out (which sucks) – it’s not like we’re lighting up the scoreboard while passing the rock. If the jet’s defense can return to form, this game should be within three points for whichever team has the last possession.

“Florio’s take: Short week, significant travel, improving opponent, and guilty conscience add up to trouble for the Seahawks in St. Louis.”

So you are just going to berate the Seahawks all year for a “in your belief” bad call? The Seahawks are playing great defensive ball and will win this game. Your East Coast Bias drives me nuts at times. The Seahawks believe they won the game I don’t think they have a “guilty conscience”

The Ravens could win tonight’s game by a final of 30-6 and I doubt the score would still tell how one-sided the game would be. Short week and emotional win over the Patriots aside, this one will be over by halftime. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tyrod Taylor got some garbage playing time by the 4th quarter.

You know, I could understand picking the Cowboys because they have too many receiving weapons, but picking them because of their running game? This is the same Bears defense that held Steven Jackson to 29 yards on 11 carries last week. The same defense that only allowed two RBs last season to have 100 yard games.

And that was with Julius Peppers being basically their sole DLman making any difference for a huge chunk of the season.

As a Texans fan, I hope you’re right b/c I’m worried about this game. Titans have lost to three really good teams, and I suspect the Texans are starting to get full of themselves and looking forward to the next three big games. Hopefully Kubiack keeps them focused, because this is an important division game that we should win.

How bout them Cardinals baby!? The #Birdgang would prefer you continue to sleep on their skills as opposed to jumping on the bandwagon. I am predicting the Dolphins will get mopped up something terrible.

I love the cowboy hate comments. they are 2-1 and in the lead of their division. get over it
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The Cowboy hate comments should be easy to understand. The vast majority of Americans are fans of other teams yet the media keep calling them ‘America’s Team’. Protip: If the media (and Cowboy fans) keep lying people will likely resent it.

kreedos…before you start booking your super bowl tickets, remember who’s playing QB for your “birdgang.” We’ve got a long way to go – the Bills started 5-0 last year; if your perennial also-rans happened to have this 3-game winning streak in the middle of the season, no one would’ve even noticed.

the idea that you can just show up on sunday, sip on a couple mai tai’s, and easily beat us given your QB and our running game is a very dangerous assumption.

What I love about Cowboy fans is putting themselves in the SB after week 3. Cowboys could be 12-0 entering December and we all know how it would end
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How is that different than any other fan of a team with a winning record? Isnt that the point of being a fan? To believe your team can make it to the superbowl every year, especially if they start the season with a winning record and dominating a division team who just so happened to win last years superbowl. Your hate for the cowboys makes you look nothing but pathetic. How about you try cheering on YOUR team instead of constantly hating on another.

Wow….The defending SuperBowl Champs are chosen to lose to a team that won both of their games by one point, and has no confidence in their starting QB??? Sorry guys ,…dont see the logic in that.
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It’s a division game. All your Logic gets thrown out the window. Cowboys dominated them week 1 but got stomped by the seahawks week 2 and barely beat Tampa week 3. How is that any different than the Eagles having a chance to stomp them also?

I love the cowboy hate comments. they are 2-1 and in the lead of their division. get over it
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If by “in the lead of their division” you mean a 4 way tie at 2-1, then you are correct!
However, one could also say “they are in last place in their division” and still be correct.

I think it’s hilarious how everyone is back to disrespecting the Niners just because they had a let down game. Props to the Vikings for playing a hell of a game, but if you seriously watch Jim Harbaugh’s Niners, you’re fooling yourself for thinking any less of them. They are still a unbelievably dangerous team and probably like that the lime light is somewhere else now.

How is that different than any other fan of a team with a winning record? Isnt that the point of being a fan? To believe your team can make it to the superbowl every year, especially if they start the season with a winning record and dominating a division team who just so happened to win last years superbowl. Your hate for the cowboys makes you look nothing but pathetic. How about you try cheering on YOUR team instead of constantly hating on another.
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There’s a difference between being hopeful and being delusional. Cowboy fans, mostly because the media is always too busy blowing them, always believe, regardless of the fact they don’t look anything close to a SB contender, that they are America’s Team and the team to beat. Remind me again, who has the least playoff victories of these glorious franchises since 1996. Is it…

a) The Arizona Cardinals
b) The Carolina Panthers
c) The Jacksonville Jaguars
d) The Great Cowboys, America’s team

Every other fan hates the Boys because for how much attention they get (and there isn’t a franchise in the league who gets more) for a team who’s looking up at the Cardinals.

Nice to see by your 14-12 Rams pick over Seattle you’re completely unobjective and don’t actually take your picks seriously enough to not use them to somehow put down the Seahawks for the calls the refs decided to make and uphold.

Said it before and I’ll say it again. This is a great sight for up to the minute NFL news; terrible site for commentary that isn’t snarky, slanted pagentry. You should do fans a favor and start bolding out the facts in your articles so those of us who don’t want to listen to your snide remarks can just get the information we’re looking for.

As always, giving the Cowboys more credit than the deserve. You’re saying a week after the Bucs D totally locked them up, that somehow the Bears D, who is better than the Bucs, is going to get lit up?
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“the Bucs D totally locked them up”

Funny, I could have sworn the Cowboys walked away with the win in that game.

You know just cause florio has his head up his a$$ about the dolphins does not mean the rest of you should. Yes the phins do not posess an elite passing offense but they will run the ball down arizona’s throat and the phins defense is pretty good too. No one is going to mop anybody up in this game. Final score Phins 14 Cards 3

Funny, I could have sworn the Cowboys walked away with the win in that game.
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God you Cowboy fans continue to prove why people hate you and your team. Did I say win? Nope, sure didn’t. But the Cowboys scored a whoppinh 16 points on the same defense that allowed 41 the week before. So actually, thats probably more of an indicator that the Boys offense just blows.

I love the cowboy hate comments. they are 2-1 and in the lead of their division. get over it

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If you love the cowboys’ hate comments, I love yours because it has to be the funniest in here. You’re gloating over a 2-1 record and a supposed lead in the division. Are you on crack? No, as a matter of fact, whatever it is you are smoking down there in “big d”, send us some up here, must be some good stuff. Three weeks into the season with the VAST majority of the games still to be played and decided, you are bragging about a week 3 record.

Gosh, no wonder dallas fans are hungry for just one playoff win, they are starving so much that they get really excited after three weeks of games and two wins, no less. “Get over it?” No dude, I am sorry, you have to get over it. There’s still October, November and December. They haven’t even played one month’s worth of games and you are talking about a division lead with a 2-1 record. Oh my gosh, this is HILARIOUS!!! Thanks for making my day!

Can we please stop with the Seahawks comments…? Why the hell would SEA have guilt, they didn’t make the call. In the NBA players act all the time to get fouls called that didn’t happen, and the sports world views that as good sportsmanship.

@gadgetdawg, how pathetic can you honestly be? So its ok for people to constantly bash on a team 3 weeks into the season but its not ok for me to support them and be proud? Are you really that miserable in your own life and that filled with hate that you honestly had to type up two paragraphs ranting on the fact that I pointed out that the Cowboys had the lead of their division 3 weeks into the season? So its ok for Giants fans to gloat about beating a struggling Tampa and Carolina team but not ok for me to be proud of my team and the fact that they beat the Almighty giants to earn that lead so far? Thanks for hate and thanks for the laugh. you’re almost as entertaining as the bitter Tampa fan posting on here

I hope in wrong but I don’t think the 9ers have gotten the whole suck fest thing out of their system. Unfortunately I think they go 2-2 after this road trip. I hope they go into NY and the fans have emptied the stadium at halftime because the Jets are down 35-0 and I’ll gladly eat crow if the 9ers spank the Jets. But I smell another tough game for the 9ers.

Florio, you are of course entitled to your opinion, and if you pick against the Seahawks for fear of a trap game on the road on an early start, I’d respect that. However, your continual bias against Seattle is nothing less than disgusting. You cannot let go of the MNF game where a controversial play awarded Seattle a win. You seem to be the only prominent (and that is a GENEROUS use of the word) member of the media who is intent on assigning blame to Seattle. Do you have something against them? Was your fish not fresh at Pike Place Market? Was your coffee cold at Starbucks? Let it go, man. Seattle is a fantastic team. Expect Wilson to let it fly a little more this weekend as they make a statement win on the road, even though its against a team they’ve beaten 13 of the last 14 times. Seahawks 21 Rams 6.

For the Giants that’s fine. However what many people don’t understand is the Giants Perry fewell is hot and cold as a d-coordinator. At times he is aggressive going after the QB and blitzing. Other times he is soft calling off coverages, 3 man lines, and just wants the defense to sit there and give the QB time to throw.

He did that last year against Vince Young for some reason, and he did that in 2010 when the Eagles had that comeback. Also I’m not making it up, look for highlights and look at how the defense lines up. He started that stuff against Dallas in the 1st game and in the 1st half against the Bucs before adjusting. Corey Webster did speak about being more aggressive. All you need to do besides looking at highligts is to look at the defense under Spags and without Spags. Fewell had the most talented defense and Spags defense did better. While coaches coach and players play, coaches have their guys in position to make plays, not the way Fewell had Justin Tuck covering Brent Celek on his 65 yard td (Osi was also in coverage 20 yards down field).

So if the Giants are aggressive on defense against the Eagles then this game won’t be a good game. I ask that everyone read this and remember it, I won’t back down from my statement.

I love the cowboy hate comments. they are 2-1 and in the lead of their division. get over it
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The Cowboy hate comments should be easy to understand. The vast majority of Americans are fans of other teams yet the media keep calling them ‘America’s Team’. Protip: If the media (and Cowboy fans) keep lying people will likely resent it.

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Guaranteed the Cowboys have more fans than your team. It’s a well known fact the Cowboys have a larger fan base than any other NFL team.

as eagles fan, i dont see eagles winning sunday night. the offensive line is average and giants defensive line is going to eat them alive. eagles got exposed against the cardinals for what kind of team they are, average team.