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When it comes to cars we’ll be driving in the future, this much was clear at the 2008 Society of Automotive Engineers’ Hybrid Symposia in San Diego last week: The future is far from clear.

There were some pretty sharp papers being delivered by such stars as Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, GM and Chrysler at the event. But by far the most thought-provoking presentation was given by Dr. Menahem Anderman of Advanced Automotive Batteries. His paper, ‘PHEV – A Step Forward or a Detour?’ took a cold-eyed view of the debate over plug-in electric hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) based upon his interviews with over 40 companies, including all the major car manufacturers and battery makers.

Dr. Anderman’s analysis shows that, for one thing, when we talk about hybrids, we’re still effectively talking about one company – Toyota. With an 83% hybrid market share in 2007, Toyota is the 900-pound gorilla in the business of mass manufacturing and selling nickel-metal hydride batteries for automobiles. Moreover, the transition to lithium-ion batteries (as needed by GM for the Volt) will be based less on particular chemistries and technical details than their suitability for being mass manufactured in a reliable, economic fashion.

At present, and in the near future, Dr. Anderman doubts PHEVs will be very significant players, as the price of the battery packs – $4000 in the case of a PHEV-10 (one which can travel 10 miles on its battery alone) or $10,000 for a PHEV- 40 (the Volt, for instance) – is too high for them to be economically replaced during the vehicle’s service life. At present, Dr. Anderman contends that the longevity of lithium-ion is just too sketchy.

The best way to restrain CO2 emissions, by Anderman’s thinking, is to as quickly as possible promote present hybrid technology (like Toyota’s) throughout the entire vehicle fleet, as it offers a bigger efficiency jump over conventional gasoline cars than PHEVs do above hybrids – and they’re a ready-to-go technology. Then, as lithium ion battery life is verified, the PHEV battery price problem can be meaningfully hacked by riding on the back of the HEV big boys (basically, Toyota) as they transition to the new chemistry. In other words, Anderman says a vehicle like the Volt will be too expensive to sell in meaningful numbers until Toyota is ready to move from nickel-metal hydride to lithium-ion batteries and helps pull down the price of the battery technology.

As for hydrogen fuel cell technology – forget it; the money would be much better spent on PHEV development. Despite his frosty assessment of the PHEV situation, Anderman nevertheless sprinkled in a few intriguing tidbits regarding near-term lithium ion use – for instance, the technology’s employment in an upcoming Mercedes-Benz S-Class hybrid and an unamed Toyota/Lexus model. Hmmm.

From GM came a presentation from Peter Savagian, Engineering Director of Hybrid Powertrain Engineering. Title? ‘Driving the Volt’. Unfortunately, it really wasn’t about driving the Volt, but a recap of the rigorous analysis that’s led them to the Volt’s radical powertrain architecture. Consider Mr. Savagian’s facts: by 2020 there will be more than 180,000,000 additional cars on the world’s roads. And by 2030, we’re going to need 70% more energy than we are so hard-pressed to crank-out now.

GM’s energy answer is to diversify our transportation energy sources beyond our current 96% dependence on oil. And GM’s Hail-Mary vehicular answer is the Volt’s E-Flex platform which, they go to great pains to explain, is an ‘extended-range electric vehicle’, not a ‘plug-in hybrid’. Whatever, you say? Well, there’s actually a big difference between the two. Operationally, a PHEV can be rigged to function in two ways – either in blended mode where it’s frequently sipping from its battery, or in initial EV mode, where its battery is relied on for a modest number of miles before the engine gets involved and the sipping scenario starts. EREVs employ really big batteries and moreover, stretch their battery-only reliance out to the maximum of miles before a motor-generator intercedes full-bore. With EREVs, most drivers would rarely see a gas station. PHEV drivers would visit them occasionally.

Gary Oshnock, of Chrysler LLC’s Environmental and Energy Planning offered some interesting regulatory as well as technical insights. He began with a run-through of 2007’s dizzying string of legislative events: in January was the President’s ’20 in 10′ challenge to reduce gasoline consumption by 20% in 10 years. In April, the Supreme Court ruled that CO2 is a pollutant. In May came a Presidential executive order to “ensure effective coordination between agencies regulating vehicle greenhouse gases”. And, of course, on December 19th came the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 – the now famous Energy Bill, which requires by 2020 an industry average of 35 mpg, and after that, the maximum feasible mpg through 2030. On the same day (just a coincidence, mind you) the EPA denied California its waiver needed to implement AB1493 which would have mandated a much stiffer 43.5 mpg average for cars and light trucks by 2016. What a year.

He also offered a few interesting observations on fuel efficiency. For instance, on a ton-mpg basis, fuel efficiency has actually been climbing by a steady 1.2 % per year for the last 22 years. Trouble is, our liking for added creature comforts, structural stiffness, and crash-safety features – all of which add weight – has pretty much nixed any actual fuel efficiency gains. What does 35 mpg by 2020 translate into on a year-by-year basis? 3.5% per year. In other words, the new CAF standards are going to require three times the recent historical annual rate of efficiency improvement – and notably, that’s after you factor-in any concomitant weight gain, not before. We may be using sun-dials to measure zero-to-sixties before this is done.

Sherif Marakby, Ford Sustainable Mobility Technology Chief Engineer, spoke about the upcoming Ford Fusion and Mercury Milan Hybrids. Basically, these two are slated to get the 2009 Escape and Mountaineer’s upgraded hybrid powertrain which is distinguished by greater displacement (2.3 liters to 2.5), quieter operation, smoother transition from electric to mixed mode, greater electric-only operation during city driving, twice the frequency of engine stop/starts, fuel shut off during deceleration, and better regenerative braking feel. All told, the Fusion and Milan Hybrids will offer over 60% better city mileage than a comparable, conventional-tech, four-cylinder engine.

Tom Turrentine of UC Davis’s PHEV Research Center argued that car buyers don’t really calculate the payback periods of advanced technology offered by their improved fuel economy; lots and lots of other reasons come first. And maybe he’s right. The initial buyers of hybrids were by in large ‘greens’; they were followed by tech geeks, then folks concerned about oil security, and now good old fashioned cheapskates who just hate to waste money at the gas pump. Heaven knows there’s a lot of those. It was also stressed that clear and instructive info displays which readily portray the vehicle’s energy use have been very important to the Prius’s good results, and might be even more significant for PHEV owners.

Dr. Mark Duvall of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) noted that construction of coal-fired power plants is currently at a standstill in the United States for fear of significant carbon penalties and restrictions looming in the near future. Nonetheless, he dismissed the sometimes-mentioned fear that a nation of PHEV driver’s would swamp the grid’s capabilities. At most, the increased demand would be something like 12%, and of course, the vast majority of the charging would take place at night, when the utilities are begging for customers. An interesting sidebar to this had to do with what the industry calls the ‘Smart Grid’. Basically, there’s a battle going on over the design and the operational protocol of future EV and PHEV plugs. What the utility industry would dearly like is a means by which, when you plug-in, information about your daily use is first transmitted to the utility (say, the car needs to be ready to go at 6:30 AM), and then your specific charging period would be intelligently scheduled during the night instead of everybody trying to simultaneously plug in at 12:01 AM.

Other Hybrid Symposia highlights included a nice review of Nissan’s progress, by Toshio Hirota, wherein the Altima Hybrid received due attention. Honda offered two talks, one on the mathematical modeling of electric motor controls which next to no one understood, the other on a peculiar prototype which captures the heat normally lost through the exhaust system to drive a small Rankine-cycle steam engine instead. I guess this qualifies as a hybrid. And of personal interest is the progress of an updated SAE standard for testing PHEVs – J1711 for those of you keeping score at home. Dr. Anderman’s reservations not withstanding, we’re going to want to have our ducks in a row when GM finally delivers on the Volt.