Report coming March 18

The Republican Party is undergoing a high-profile examination of what it must do to win in 2016. The Republican National Committee will release a blueprint for the party’s future on March 18.

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Top Republicans who know Iowa politics can’t agree on how to win the middle.

Leading conservative thinkers point out that although a 5.8 percentage point loss in Iowa blindsided Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign, it drew 55,000 more Iowa Republicans to the polls than the John McCain campaign did four years before.

They see that as evidence they don’t have a problem with their base: It’s independents and newcomers they need to snag, often in the middle of the liberal to conservative spectrum.

But 13 Iowans and three national party leaders interviewed by the Register about the future of the GOP differ on how to do that.

They tend to agree they need to improve campaign mechanics and beef up GOP ranks with women, minorities and younger voters. They also foresee updating the Iowa caucuses.

What gets sticky: the message.

In the wake of Romney’s loss and his poor showing with fast-growing demographic groups, GOP leaders asked activists across the country to weigh in on the party’s future. The Republican National Committee will report its findings March 18.

Some Republicans interviewed by the Register insist the way forward is all about constitutional government.

“Republicans could attract more young people by emphasizing the more libertarian parts of our message: Less government, a more prudent foreign policy and individual liberty,” said U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, who campaigned in Iowa for his father, presidential candidate Ron Paul, and is considered a possible 2016 candidate. He created a sensation among conservatives last week by filibustering 13 hours to protest President Barack Obama’s drone use.

Some believe the winning formula will require being both socially and fiscally conservative.

“When we nominate candidates who people assume can win because they are ‘moderate,’ we have seen time and time again that this is not a recipe for victory,” said Rick Santorum, who won the 2012 Iowa GOP caucuses and is eyed as a likely bet to run again in 2016. “But when we nominate principled conservatives who are not afraid to stand up for what they know to be true, we win.”

Others think the best chance for success is to stop vilifying those who support civil marriage and to focus the abortion fight on giving women alternatives to abortion. They want to invest the bulk of the GOP’s energy on laissez-faire economics, the deficit and creation of an environment in which the American Dream can be achieved.

“We must agree that we can disagree amongst ourselves, and do so while respecting the opposing viewpoint,” said Iowa operative Chad Airhart.

Romney’s Iowa caucus campaign manager, Sara Craig, who refers to herself as proudly conservative, said: “Unfortunately, there are times that I do not feel the current Republican Party represents the issues I care about most. This can and should be fixed, or there won’t be a path forward for the GOP.”

The party shouldn’t get hung up on the divide on social issues, some Republicans said. They think the GOP can win anyway.

“On social issues,” Paul said, “Republicans must always ... stand up for traditional values, but maybe some of these issues should be decided at the state or local level instead (of) through federal laws.”

Reince Priebus, chairman of the national party, said he doesn’t think the GOP platform is the issue.

“I think you need great candidates and you need a great turnout operation that is a four-year operation and not a four-month operation,” he said during a trip to Iowa last week to hear activists’ ideas for how the party can do things better.

The GOP, Priebus said, has “a lot more to be excited about than we need to be worried about.”

Iowa political strategist Robert Haus said Republicans shouldn’t be “lighter versions of the Democrats.”

“We promote opportunity,” he said. “We protect life, private property and the right to defend them.”

But Haus doesn’t think same-sex marriage and abortion should be at the forefront going into 2016.

“The Democrats want us and bait us into fighting the culture battles,” Haus said. “We have to realize the bait on that lure has a very sharp hook under it.”

Tamara Scott, Iowa’s committeewoman on the Republican National Committee, said strong positions against abortion and same-sex marriage are part of the GOP platform, and she was pleased that party activists who met with Priebus wanted to keep that message.

“You will not attract new people to the party when your foundation is cracking,” Scott said.

There’s nothing new about internal conflicts within political parties, but what is new is the dramatic shift in voter demographics, political analysts say. Older whites who make up the GOP — and tend to be conservative on social issues — are a shrinking portion of the population.

Opposition to same-sex marriage will almost certainly be a losing battle for Republicans, except in very conservative states, said Kyle Kondik, a political analyst with the University of Virginia.

“Young people see gay marriage as a civil rights issue, and they aren’t going to change their minds about it,” Kondik said.

On abortion, “the problem for Republicans is not necessarily being pro-life; it’s being seen as ignorant on matters of women’s reproductive health,” he said.

Here’s the caveat, Kondik said: The Republican message in upcoming elections might not be as important as election cycle fundamentals.

Simple history tells us that in midterm elections, the president’s party does poorly, he noted. And party fatigue makes it difficult for one party to win the White House in three straight elections.

But if Republicans stay with their messaging and still do poorly in 2014 and 2016, he said, “then it will really be time to panic.”