5Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

For market participants, the upcoming week ends Thursday as U.S. markets close for Good Friday ahead of Easter Sunday. But the shortened week is full of reports covering factory activity, housing, and inflation. The Federal Reserve will release its beige book, and Chairwoman Janet Yellen will deliver two speeches. Economy-watchers should look out for these items:

11 Apr 2014 3:48pm

By

Kathleen Madigan

1April Data Make an Entrance

Weekly numbers are already covering this month, but next week will see April reports on regional factory activity from the Federal Reserve Banks of New York (out on Tuesday) and Philadelphia (Thursday). Although regional differences matter, economists view the Fed factory reports as harbingers of national economic trends. For instance, both the New York and Philadelphia reports showed a slowdown in factory hiring in March. And sure enough, the Labor Department said factory payrolls nationwide slipped by 1,000 last month.

Another early peek at April activity will be the housing market index which captures home builders’ sentiment on current and future sales as well as buyer traffic. After creeping higher in the second half of 2013, the index plunged into contractionary territory in February and showed almost no gain in March.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect the April index, to be released Tuesday, to edge back up to 50, a sign that builders are evenly split on their views of business conditions.

2Skim Through the Beige Book

The Fed will release its anecdotal look at regional economies on Wednesday. The book always offers insights into the geographic differences in the economy’s performances.

The reports on hiring and wage growth may be of interest since increased anecdotes of businesses paying more for labor will be a leading indicator that pay raises nationally are finally picking up. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has mentioned that low wage growth throughout this recovery is a sign of slack in the labor markets.

The beige book is prepared ahead of the Fed’s next policy meeting on April 29-30.

Wage pressures remained stable for most Districts.

from March 5 Beige Book

3Yellen Takes the Stage

Ms. Yellen is slated to deliver two speeches next week, both of which will be parsed by Fed-watchers.

She will speak to the Atlanta Fed’s 2014 Financial Markets conference on Tuesday and at the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday. She may take either occasion to clarify her thinking on forward guidance, labor market slack, and global economic developments.

Getty Images

4 Inflation Will Still Look Too Low in March

One topic of discussion during the Fed’s March policy meeting was the notion that inflation was too low and would remain that way in the short run. The Labor Department will release the March consumer price index on Tuesday. Economists think the latest numbers will tell the same old story: yearly inflation is running well below the Fed’s target of 2%. That will keep some Fed officials uneasy and the tapering process on track.

5But March Store Sales Should Show a Pick-Up

Consumers mainly stayed home in the harsh winter months, which hurt retail activity. But the weather was more normal in March, and shoppers ventured out of their homes and into local malls.They also stopped at car dealerships and took a test-drive.

The Commerce Department will release its broad tally of March retail sales Monday. Economists think top-line sales increased a large 0.8%, helped in part by a rebound in vehicle sales. Nonauto store sales are projected to be up a smaller but still strong 0.4%.