Tropical Storm HERNAN

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014
800 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014
Deep convection to the southeast of Hernan's center dissipated a few
hours ago, but a new burst of activity has recently developed to the
north of the center. Still, subjective and objective Dvorak
satellite estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity
is set at 40 kt based on a blend of these data. Due to decreasing
sea surface temperatures, increasing atmospheric stability, and
strengthening vertical shear, this new round of convective activity
is likely to be short lived. Based on the latest intensity
guidance, the updated NHC forecast now shows Hernan weakening to a
tropical depression in about 12 hours and becoming a remnant low by
36 hours. Dissipation is indicated by day 4, but some of the global
models indicate that it could occur sooner.
The initial motion remains 300/15 kt. Hernan is forecast to
continue moving west-northwestward during the next 48 hours, but it
should also slow down as it comes under the influence of weaker
low-level flow. A slow westward motion is expected just before the
remnant low dissipates. The model consensus TVCE has been trending
a little bit farther north, and the updated NHC track forecast is
nudged in that direction primarily at 48 and 72 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 22.1N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 23.1N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 24.0N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 24.6N 123.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0000Z 25.0N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z 25.0N 127.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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