Market Watch for week of 8/17/2009

Check last week's thread to catch up. I am sorry that we had to end the thread for last week. It was a huge week and there is tons of great information there to continue with and unanswered posts.

Anyway, here is the new thread for the week.

Anybody that is reading or lurking in this thread is welcome to post. We are a very peaceful investment team here and we all help each other in any way that we can.

If this is your first time here...then welcome!

From the crew that resides within these walls...have fun and help each other learn and hopefully succeed!

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Has

Whoops, got caught in the lockdown... going to repost so it all makes sense..

Overall -

First compare to market thus far... toys a little behind the SP500 - but, many of the leaders in the SP500 were the companies that had direct stimulus packages... ie. unregulated tarp funds to the banks, etc... so this isn't suprising, expecially since toys go with consumer sentiment, and its the average joe who's losing their jobs that buy toys...

However, you can see that the toy index has formed a channel in green and may be making a breakout as SP may turn over.

But - (take into account that asian markets are dumping pretty big right now and SP500 futures are dropping at the moment)...

It appears that there may be a chance for the toy index to pop above resistance tomorrow - if it could close the week out up, while the rest of the market craps (if the market craps) that would be bullish for toy stocks... perhaps on the hopes of toy sales later in the year...

On the flipside, if it dumps... perhaps I'd wait on a position.. .or compare how HAS does to the toy index... ie. if the other toys are out of favor, and the index drops, but HAS can bust that $29 level in the next posts, its a go TA wise.

HAS longer term

Monthly -

here's where I'm a little bearish on the monthly scale... if there isn't a breakout for the toy index (though, again, watch HAS vs. the toys, as if what's said the other toys fall out of favor - you will see a diversion between the index and HAS), and the market dumps (asian stocks dumping now, and SP500 futures - well all index futures, dropping), then there may be a head and shoulders top forming, with the base at $20 - however, the timing of it appears that the head and shoulders could be a fake.. ie. head to $20, to shake folks out and prep for the $20 piercing... but then rally over xmas sales and Q1 reports... so if it does head down, look for a price and rebound near the $20 levels

Weekly
The previous intermediate high didn't make a new high, but we have a higher low... if the market/index/stock take a dip down, look for HAS to keep a higher low, and that could be a good buy point for xmas/Q1

Here you can also see from the blue arrows, how $29 is a strong support/resistance line. Also the fibs play a role in trading. ie, once the 61.8% was pierced, it took a dive. Seems there is a band between 38.2% and $29 where it runs into trouble

Umbrellas, descending triangle and more

I am going to re-post also. I got caught in the "lockdown" also.

The past 4 days have been Umbrellas. That means that there could be a reversal due to indecision by buyers. It means that sellers were winning out during the day, but the buyers managed to push the price back to the opening price at the end of the day.

After long declines this can be a bullish indicator, but it is an indicator that has to be confirmed with a turn either in a bullish or bearish reversal. The accuracy is rated at medium for dependability.

I mixed my words up on the chart. I meant to say -50 or less...Northward!

Short term

Not sure of a breakout, usually for a handle, you don't want to see rising lows... but that's not always indicative of a failure..

The 200 day isn't moving up yet, I'd look also for a bounce, if it heads down off of the 50 or 200...

The 61.8% retractment on the daily appears to be support at the moment too.

On the 60 minute... it looks like the price is about to make a decision between the upper and lower sets of lines. Closing above either extreme may indicate which way it's going.

So - *today* its iffy for the TA trader... but longer term, like for Q1 earnings and xmas store reports, you could see a decent upside. Currently, the charts point to where HAS and the toy index move relative to each other and the SP500/NYSE. It does appear though, the movements this week could dictate which way it could possibly run, unless we get into more channeling.

Overall, its an undecided question mark to me until we see how HAS/DJ toys/SP play out in the upcoming days... then things may be a little more clear. Of course, from the speculative angle, and patience, entering anywhere below $29 and having the patience for a drawdown is ok. I see the key levels TA wise to be $20 and $29.

On HAS I think that I would be looking at the sma30, but that is just me. The 50 is a bit far out with the time span displayed. I could be very well wrong, but am trying to tie into the thought process there..any thoughts on that Dave? I am just wondering.

If the 200 and the 50 meet up and climb together, then it is solid, but wouldn't a 30 be beneficial? Not challenging...just asking and learning the reasoning.

On HAS I think that I would be looking at the sma30, but that is just me. The 50 is a bit far out with the time span displayed. I could be very well wrong, but am trying to tie into the thought process there..any thoughts on that Dave? I am just wondering.

If the 200 and the 50 meet up and climb together, then it is solid, but wouldn't a 30 be beneficial? Not challenging...just asking and learning the reasoning.

I just put 50 and 200 there, as for these slower big exchange stocks that's the default. I don't know how Tyler trades... if he's been in SIRI for a long time, he has patience, and likely is more speculative. 20 day moving averages are used a lot, or folks also use others like 30. Depends on how you are going to trade it. If I have time, I could backtest a series, but the way this guy kind of runs in a more narrow range, it may not show a clear trading system. Any questions always ok, and remember, I'm not a pro. The only thing I can say with any certainty is, is where the different forms of support and resistance are, as those have a definition, so to speak, so they are what they are. Then you run into the multitude of ways to trade things.