The final five Chase slots right now belong to the five drivers who are the highest in points among the winless drivers.

The five winless drivers who are highest in points right now are:

12. Jamie McMurray, 726 points;

13. Ryan Newman, 714 points;

14. Jeff Gordon, 700 points; and

15. Paul Menard, 692 points;

16. Clint Bowyer, 682 points.

If a driver wins his or her first race of the season at Richmond, then the top four winless drivers in points after Richmond will make the Chase along with the Richmond winner.

Right now, the first driver on the outside looking in is Aric Almirola, who has 653 points, 29 behind Bowyer. Almirola still has a mathematical chance to make it in, but barring him winning in Richmond or someone winning for the first time, it looks like the 16 Chase drivers are all but set.