Rough path for Pennsylvania Dems

Pennsylvania Democrats already had a daunting road back to the majority within their own House delegation. Now that Republicans have unveiled their redistricting map, that road is close to a dead end.

The plan, released Tuesday by the GOP-controlled Legislature and expected to be passed largely in its current form, significantly shores up all of the state’s most endangered GOP House members, from the Philadelphia suburbs to the shore of Lake Erie. It assures that Democrats will bear the brunt of the state losing a congressional district by throwing Reps. Jason Altmire and Mark Critz into the same western Pennsylvania seat. In a final insult, it rips the bluest areas out of freshman Rep. Lou Barletta’s northeast Pennsylvania district, putting the Democrats’ top target further out of reach. Former Democratic Rep. Chris Carney, who had wanted to run against Barletta, lives outside the new district.

“Even if you’re a top-tier candidate, you’ve got a really tough climb, and the reality is we just have fewer of those candidates than before,” former state Democratic Chairman T.J. Rooney said.

“These districts are just a lot harder now,” a former Democratic congressman told POLITICO. “We just have to hope that the presidential year turnout makes it better for us.”

Interviews with more than a dozen Democratic officials, operatives and fundraisers point to the head winds the party is running against: an unfavorable new map, a lackluster slate of recruits and a finite supply of campaign cash that will be dominated by the reelection campaigns of President Barack Obama and Sen. Bob Casey.

Many Democrats privately concede the best they can hope for is to win back one or two seats. Some believe it’s possible they won’t flip a single seat.

“There’s no question we’re not going to gain back the five seats we lost,” said one top Democratic strategist who’s worked on House races in the state. “No one would claim that with a straight face.”

In a blow to the party, the new map frees suburban Philadelphia Reps. Jim Gerlach and Patrick Meehan of the most Democratic areas of their districts — bolstering their reelection bids.

Few Democrats see much of a chance against Gerlach, who has fended off strong challenges for a decade and who will trade the blue Montgomery County areas of his district for more purple spots in Chester and Berks counties. Democrat Manan Trivedi, who lost to Gerlach last year, is running again but will find fundraising difficult with wealthy Democrats from Lower Merion no longer in the district and the Philadelphia fundraising class tiring of pouring resources into fighting an incumbent who they just can’t seem to beat.