We could say that the Russian intervention in Syria has settled into somewhat of a routine: the Russians are bombing, a lot, and the Syrians are advancing on almost all fronts, but slowly. While those who expected a rapid collapse of Daesh followed by a series of major government victories might be disappointed, I am personally rather encouraged by these events. Here is why:

If the Syrians did not win in a rapid Blitzkrieg it is first and foremost because such a Blitzkrieg was never a real possibility. The Syrians never had the numbers to concentrate enough forces on one attack axis and to subsequently exploit a breakthrough. The Syrians also lack the firepower needed to prepare the Daesh defenses before attempting such a offensive. In fact, a secondary role for the Russian AirSpace forces has been to provide from the air the firepower the Syrians lacked in their ground forces. However, while a Blitzkrieg is always very impressive, if risky, there is another time tested form of warfare, attrition warfare, which can also yield results. I am not talking about a WWI kind of attrition warfare, of course, but one specific to the Syrian conflict.

The Russians are steadily degrading Daesh on many levels: they are hitting their command posts, their ammo dumps, their logistics and supply routes, their training bases, etc. Since a lot of those targets have now been destroyed, the Russians are also proving more and more close air support, that is to say that they are now flying sorties in direct support of Syrian army operations. There is also mounting evidence that Russian officers are now working closely with the frontline Syrian units. This closer cooperation and coordination between the Russians and the Syrians has yielded many small victories and at least one major one: the city strategic of Salma, in northeastern Latakia province, has now been fully liberated . Check out this video, in Russian but not translation is really needed, for footage of the liberation of this city:

check here for a recent progress, subtitled in English, report by the Russian General Staff:

On the negative side, the Syrians and Russians have still not found a way to deny Daesh its major advantage: the ability to pump more and more combatants into Syria through Turkey and other countries. At this point in time, it is unclear who has the advantage in this competition: can the Syrian kill Takfiris faster than Daesh can import them or not. Regardless, what is certain is that the Syrians are advancing and that tells me that while the influx of new combatants is definitely a problem for the Syrians, it is not one which has made it possible for Daesh to stop the Syrians from advancing.

I have already mentioned in the past that the Russians are also supplying the Syrians with advanced artillery systems which will gradually restore the Syrian’s ability to have organic and powerful firepower in their ground force units.

One very interesting news item came out recently: there are reports that Russia is now directly providing weapons to Hezbollah. If these reports are confirmed (more or less, nobody will ever acknowledge that officially, of course) then this would be a very elegant response to the Israeli bombings of Hezbollah arms depots. As for Iran, we can be quite sure that they can get almost anything they would need from the Russian market anyway. In other words, Russia will be slowly but surely rebuilding the Syrian capabilities.

Still, the big event of the past two week is a non-event, really. It is the fact that the US-lead “alternative coalition” is achieving exactly nothing. Not only was the big conference in Saudi Arabia a total failure after Ahrar al-Sham walked out, but the recent Saudi attempt are creating a crisis with Iran have also petered out without yielding any tangible results. Ditto for the French intervention in response to the massacres in Paris: the Charles de Gaulle sailed to Syria and then nothing. Literally nothing of any significance happened. As for the World Hegemon, it appears that Uncle Sam simply does not know what to do: all we have seen out of Washington is a series of vapid statements following by nothing. As for the Turks, they are now dealing with an internal situation which is getting worse by the day and they also appear to have no idea what to do about Syria.

This is why I think that “no news is good news”: because no news means that Russia is the only game in town: whatever the pace of the Russian-Syrian advance against Daesh, they are the only ones getting anything actually done while everybody else is in complete disarray.

For a while, the Pentagon was floating the idea of a US backed Kurdish offensive against the city of al-Raqqah, presented as the “capital of Daesh”, and some US special forces were sent in to help the Kurds, but it rapidly turned out that the Turks categorically opposed that. Worse, the Kurds also refused to provide cannon-fodder for a US run operation against Daesh. So much for that grand plan.

In other words, and in this moment in time, there appears to be no workable plan from the US, NATO, EU, Turkish, Saudi, etc. The only actor which not only has a plan, but which has now been pursuing its long term goal are Russia and Iran. It is also worth noting that the Russian-Iranian plan as build-in flexibility: if possible, the Russians and Iranian want to get the best situation on the ground before engaging in any negotiations about the future of Syria. If that is not possible and the Empire insists in doubling-down yet again, then the fall-back plan is simple: militarily defeating Daesh.

The best proof that the Russian side is willing to sustain a long campaign is the recent SOFA (status of forces agreement) signed between Russian and Syria which basically regulates the Russian presence in Syria and which does not have a time limit. In fact, if either side wants to withdraw from that agreement it has to give a one-year warning to the other side. It is likely that the Iranian and Syrians also have a very similar agreement but that it has not been made public.

There is a lot of speculations about a possible Russian ground operation in Syria. I don’t buy this notion at all. Not only have Russian officials and military experts dismissed such an option, but the Russian military is simply not configured for such a long-range power projection. Yes, Russia could, in theory, send in and Airborne forces and then have then supported by a naval task force, but that would run counter to Russian military doctrine and pose very serious potential risks. Barring something truly extraordinary, I don’t see the Kremlin going for such an extremely dangerous gambit.

So the plan appears to be the following one:

Stabilize the Syrian government (done)

Attrition warfare against Daesh (in progress)

Re-build the Syrian armed forces (in progress)

Establish a permanent Russian military presence (done)

Prevent the imposition of a no-fly zone by the US/NATO (done)

Force the Empire to negotiate with Assad (in progress)

Disrupt the Turkish, Saudi and Qatari support for Daesh (in progress)

Co-opt as much as possible of the armed opposition to Assad into a common anti-Daesh front (in progress)

Provide military aid to Iran and Hezbollah (in progress)

Keep Daesh combatants away from Russia and her allies in the Caucasus and Central Asia (in progress)

Try to convince the Europeans that their stance in the Middle-East (and elsewhere) is self-defeating and that they must work with Russia to restore stability (no results so far)

Try to drive a wedge between the US and Europe (no results so far)

I think that this plan successfully combines short-term and long-term objectives and that it has a good chance of succeeding, at least in the first 10 objectives. Alas, I don’t see any signs that the US grip on Europe (via the subservient European comprador elites in power) is getting weaker. If anything, the complete flop of Hollande’s trip to Washington proved that even France has no real sovereignty left.

The Saker

The Essential Saker: from the trenches of the emerging multipolar world

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74 Comments

Who are these so called ”unidentified gunmen” liquidating top and mean head honchos one by one from the moderate head choppers under usnatoturkwahai sponsorship.These m.feckers getting their bad ass wiped for sure better stick to the hotel lobbies and leave the fighting to the pros!Strange things are happening as in ukrine the game is ending.Will flag wave on my own:-)

Try the video of I think Hezbollah taking out an ISIS individual on home turf a month or two back who was supposedly the organiser of the ISIS bombings in Lebanon.

Scotts humor? You seem a bit grumpy.
If you need the link I will dig back through the twitter accounts to find it but after the bad bombings in Lebanon, I think it was Hezbollah off memory that penetrated deep into ISIS held territory to take this guy out. The video showed him gargling out his last few seconds.

Whoever took him out is quite likely to be responsible for taking out these other commanders.

Your comment got the better of me Scott. I am ignorant on Russian personalities but apart from the comments in the link, a special forces type that works behind the lines posing for photo ops? c’mon I’m an armchair general.

As for who is taking out the “moderate rebels” hezbollah have proved they are capable of taking out individuals a long way into enemy territory, Iran was having its commanders knocked off at a fast rate for a period and I don’t think they will sit back and take that, and then there are Russian special forces which from what I have seen on videos that have appeared at this site and other places, they also train for this sort of thing. And then there’s Syrians.

Whoever has personal working behind the lines will be keeping it quiet for a long time perhaps forever.

You are posting pictures of a Russian singer’s staged photo shoots within a context of your claim that he might be one of those Special forces people.
No, he isn’t.
When you want to write something concerning Russia, please, do your research. If you’re not sure, ask me.
Don’t just grab pictures of some hunky Russian in military uniform and say that he is a S.O.
You will thank me later.

Will do. Thanks. Regarding this subject I think it would be the same the world over that special services personal on active duty will not pose for photo ops showing their faces. I do not need a Russia expert for that.

When I see things like “Russian” genetics – bio warfare targeting “Russian genetics” I just brush past them without even thinking of words like ignorance and stupidity and even if I were to do so, you have one up on me there as it consists of a personal attack against you and would be modded out.

You do a good job here Scott but don’t fall into the trap of the elite and the peasants.

Syrian infiltration units.. Now they are not special forces and I was surprised at some of the promotions and you never hear much of them and until I saw a few pics had no idea until I read your reply.. Syrian special forces tag arms shipments and rescue like the downed Russia pilots. But what the hecks an infiltration unit supposed to do? These are also the only mean looking Syrians I seen. Maybe like 100 of em or so in the pics. Kidnapping of and assassinating of high level commanders might be their job. Although I saw another post where the SAA used some IED’s they found to take out a top level commander.. They called him on the phone to setup a meeting at the FSA op room.. Yea the Syrians called him up and said to come into the FSA op room.. Must have been one confusing phone call. but we will never know now.

No siree they ain’t Syrian.If they were they would have taken credit by now.Watch out for more of this ‘unidentified gunmen”…bless them.This year is the year the chickens are coming home to roost in mena and eu/ukrine.Fuckeunuland who was told by evil putin ,”you now my women” has thrown the nazi junta under the bus.Empeordagon personal fortune lay in tatters the army is telling him where to squat.The TAF grounded ,nato running air security,border closed for moderate head choppers.Turkey on the way to be divided.Over in the wahabi kingdom US PR firm is running it to the ground GCC culprits doing their best to keep sandled barbahouthis from invading the holy land.Again saud house will loss as SA fragments into Shia/shite divide the eastern part becoming an Iran protocrate.Qatar handed over to BP as used to be grand paymaster to moderate head choppers hand in final surrender terms to evil putin.Zion become a US protocrate after giving up the biggest open prision in the world and some big chunks of rocks with oil beds….just saying:-)waves flag frantically:-)

Well in Ukraine they would not be Syrian, I was talking about all the commanders that were getting wacked by unidentified gunmen in syria, I am sure the NAF has similar groups. I saw some cryptic comments from auslander talking about ukraines living in the forests of crimea doing things to get rid of the junta. Since special forces wont actually do much assassination work. which is more for people of a certain composition that can control their ethics and such. Killing someone not fighting is much harder than fighting them. A sanctioned hitman like james bond withot the perks of women..

you are missing an important piece. Washington is stirring a new mess in the north with the kurds, and they have a military base there now, and nothing good can come out of this. What ever will happen when SAA/RuAF one day take Aleppo and turn north and face the kurds and the americans? Fight them?

I agree with your assessment concerning Russian ground forces entering the conflict, though there is obviously a contingent of advisors and special ops forces engaged with the SAA. However, beyond your contention that the Russian military is not configured for long-range power projection, I would add two thoughts. The first being putting Russian military boots on the ground would play right into the empires anti-Russian propaganda apparatus. For reasons quite obvious. The second one being, and this is more asking for clarification as to the reasons why you believe Syria would equate to long-range projection, considering the distance between it and the Russian border is not very significant by modern standards? This is not an effort to question your expertice but merely a request for your reasons for your statement in this regard.

Correct. The KurdsIS are another NATO, Israeli proxy force serving multiple purposes. The continued IS oil theft/smuggling and NATO’S ongoing destabilization of the nation of Turkey. The Kurds are certainly not what the western propaganda syndicate portrays the Kurds as. They are complicit crimanals as corrupt as any group in the ME.

The Kurds are not all the same. There are significant differences between the Iraqi Kurds on one hand and the Turkish and Syrian Kurds on the other, for one thing. There are also different factions among the Iraqi Kurds, although I don’t see those as mattering as much–near as I can figure all the significant factions among the Kurds of Iraq agree that the basic project is to grab the oil as US subordinates, the question being just who gets the goodies.
But the Turkish and Syrian Kurds are mostly PKK-related (there is some PKK in Iraq as well but they’re not dominant). The PKK may call in a few US air strikes when they’re fighting ISIS, but fundamentally it will be hard for them to get along with the US because they’re a bunch of socialists; their official ideology is democratic confederalism, a sort of decentralized libertarian socialist anarchy thing. And I don’t think they have a lot of illusions about the Americans and their objectives.

I tespectfully disagree. The PKK are acting in conjunction with Israel and NATO according to research I have conducted. The PKK are proxies nothing more. Look a bit deeper is my suggestion to you. Don’t believe the hype.

Excellent analyse Saker, clear, concise and very informative, in line with your best.

Thank you, I see now all clearer.

Glad to hear about that “elegant” support to Hezbollah, they deserve it.
I guess Israel can not object anything, as they, in a “not so elegant” way, are providing not only weapons but quality medical care assistance to the Takfiries for long ago.

We should say not just test but demonstrate the effectiveness in real combat situation of Russian arms, air power (both offense and defense), personnel, and national will to all who might have an interest or who need to know what Russia has to back up her diplomacy. Crimea was a big surprise I think, but no combat occurred. Georgia was some time ago, a weak opponent, and not much of a military test (it was, however, a demonstration of Russia’s seriousness about national security issues).

I think the most important demonstration is that it is a _small_ and _affordable_ air force.
— Except Kalibr & long range aviation, which is more a show of meaning business —
Every midsize country in the world can now afford the airforce needed to stop the harassment by US and allies to a certain extent. It’s not everything you need, but still a quite impressive part.
So from now on, there is NO more excuse for other countries not to stand up against the evil.

You do realize that you are taking about standing up to a coalition that spends like 70% of the planets weapons budget? You think any small or medium sized country can stand up to that?

The only reason they are not all bombing Syria are the 800 or so strategic multi-mega ton warheads aimed at all their capitals.

Iraq had 600 fighter bombers and they were taken out in a couple of weeks. Over 5000 tanks and 80000 or so solders at the time the 3rd most powerful army in the world.. Iraq’s chemical weapons were more of a nuisance and not a danger to anyone. But if they had nukes the story would have been different.

Hello, I expected this reply and try to explain my reasons:
Correct me if I am wrong, but I think simple nuclear mutually assured destruction does not work anymore (for the goodwilling) for the same reasons that chemical weapons were not widely used in WW2. Destruction and pollution would be massive, but not complete. It is kind of a very expensive blink game, and a very dangerous, too. I think it never fully worked. There will be new weapons…
The Situation is now different than in 2003: The USA is exhausted after hugely expensive wars (men, material and motivation). Russia has gained a little strength over last 15 years and is willing to support those who stand up. The Tu-160s in Venezuela meant this. But Russia determines _if_ it does, and _when_, the extent of commitment, the strategic aims, the tactical means, etc. No second Afghanistan, no being drawn into a war (Ukraine). <- This is Putin's merit.
And every country has do its homework: society, education, economy. Whether Donbass, Syria or Venezuela…

Not that I disagree but there two major problems with the capability of the U.S. forces. The first is that the weapons procurement system has been gamed and corrupted over several generations and the weakness of leadership within the national security state does not allow for any serious attempt to reform the procurement system at this time. The second is that the national security state and the military are deeply divided among about several factions and sub-factions. This is why you are getting either a zig-zag policy or no-policy out of Washington. In fact, Russia knew of this split within Washington and thus proceeded fearlessly in Syria and, to some extent in Ukraine. With Washington in paralysis Europe is also rudderless and this will last at least until the US elections and then things will get very interesting.

Then, we are to mention the utilization of old weapons. You know, Russia uses old Soviet-period bombs in Syria. Allthough, those bombs fall with a high precise because special systems choose where and when to drop them according to aircraft speed, wind, and so on.

Bomb utilization is an expensive thing. It’s cheaper to drop them where they are really needed.

My reading of Deep State tea leaves is that the smarter faction has admitted to itself that the Vision 2020 policy gambit is finished, that the future context requires a much altered policy with the defeat of Exceptionalism. Sure, the neocons will still scream their insipidity, but their days are over with the defeat of their Vision 2020 policy. Erdogan’s actions have resulted in roiling NATO and EU in a chaos akin to that delivered by a suicide bomber, unleashing uncontrollable political forces capable of greatly altering both EU and NATO. The defeat of Vision 2020 is best seen in Syraq and Turkey and lifting of Iranian sanctions, with nothing formulated yet as a replacement. So, the war to eliminate Daesh will grind forward along with the rise in Russian credibility and continuing fall of the Outlaw US Empire’s unipolar position.

Things seemed a bit touch and go for a while when Russia stood up to the US first in Ukraine, then in Syria but a bit of time to think and the MAD doctrine seems to have worked its magic and calmed the beast.
A bit has changed in five eyes in that time with Harper and Abbott – both yapping dogs being turfed out. current Australian PM Turnbull has been called to head office to explain himself. Hopefully he has a bit more backbone than the French head honcho. Time will tell.

“I think that this plan successfully combines short-term and long-term objectives and that it has a good chance of succeeding, at least in the first 10 objectives. Alas, I don’t see any signs that the US grip on Europe (via the subservient European comprador elites in power) is getting weaker. If anything, the complete flop of Hollande’s trip to Washington proved that even France has no real sovereignty left.”

Fine informative essay, with a clear conclusion.

There are signs of a revival of the oppressed and abused peoples and their Nations of the Middle East, specially of those in the Fertile Crescent. And that revival is the result of the Russian intervention (or better said, the Russian rescue of the Syrian people).

One good deed leads to another. From Novorossiya, to Yemen, to Iraq, to Egypt, the presence of the Russian Air Corps, and supporting forces in Syria, and other Russian military help, such as supplies and air cover, has triggered an upsurge of Hope from all the Arab peoples. The Greeks, Kurds, Hezbollah, Palestinians, and Armenians are also benefiting from the Russian opposition to the Zionist-Americans, and their fascist terrorist armies (such as ISIS and the Turkish army). The Greeks are no longer alone, as they are confronted by the almost Daily Bullying from the more powerful Turkish Fascist State.

The Russian opposition to the Imperialist Uni-polar New World Order is also responsible for Triggering the upsurge of European Nationalism, (from the French -National Front, to the UK Independence Party of Nigel Farage). The European governments are operated by traitorous “comprador elites,” as the Saker describes them, but the Resistance is already visible.

This speech by Marine Le Pen is worth listening to, and but one example of the coming revolt.

“The Russian opposition to the Imperialist Uni-polar New World Order is also responsible for Triggering the upsurge of European Nationalism, (from the French -National Front, to the UK Independence Party of Nigel Farage).”

In his postings Saker is presenting a fine line between nationalism and patriotism, in as much I might add the idea that the declaration of the right wing an area of crime is as rightful
as the opposite. A healthy bird, according to Gods pattern, flies with both wings.

It is not whether or not you are ‘right,’ or ‘left,’ that counts, but whether you are Right or Wrong!

A healthy bird is at one with its entire body, from its legs, to its brain, to its wings. Wings are not a dichotomy to be measured by right-left. A bird, as with Nations, must be whole – in order to survive.

Russia, Syria, Palestine, and European Nations, all nations, need to be whole, indivisible, Sovereign, as Marine Le Pen, all the other Le Pens, Nigel Farage, and Alain Soral are saying to all who will listen.

Did you listen to the speech by Marine Le Pen? Do you have a Serious detailed opinion? Are you listening, or being a mundano – maniac? All kidding aside; what do you think of her speech?

Yes you are right I’m primarily a astro-“mundano-maniac”. So I describe primarily a to me necessary political space than a certain political try to fill it.
I didn’ read Le Pens statement. Will do if you link to me the one you mentioned..
Cheers

I’m o.k. with her statement. Since the coup in Kiew I watch the few voices pro
sovereign Europe. I follow Sakers distinction between patriotism and nationalism and listening to Mme Le Pen could not find any stone to stumble at. All in all to me it seems to be a time, where the sound part of right wing of the political spectrum, might take honor in stepping out of the shadow of political extremism and to form the needed honorable front of patriotic resistance against the hegemon and his Gesslers for the multilateral sovereignisation of the planet.

Regarding the bit about Russia passing sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah- if true- my question is : Why the f*#*k are Hezbollah Field Commanders talking to the Daily Beast? And just how did these lines of communications come about, pray tell?

Unless this is conjecture or fabrication by the DB, or conversely, an authorized psychological leak by Hezbollah/Russia, then I would be extremely disappointed in the Resistance because as far as I know it, they have always strived to be cautious and guarded concerning information emanating from the organization. Why depart from that now?

A big lie manufactured to elicit information, a psychological leak. or a major slip up???????

I wont believe it. I DO know that Hezbollah checks out weapons and equipment for a mission from the Russian armory and the place is guarded by Hezbollah troops. Russia don’t care as long as the weapons are back in the store.. They are not given away for them to take home. I seen them use a lot of tanks but I think those are Syrian tanks and even some T90’s from the Syrian 4th armored division. Russia has also left sizeable weapons catches around for IS and FSA to find and take home especially in palameria where they retreated and left the weapons for IS to take home. IS did not take the bait and only took ammo and a few missiles to use. Shows their US handers explicitly told them to not take the weapons.. Not even to sell them in turkey..

The catches are tagged and can be geo located… to find hidden weapons storage facilities..

It spread like wildfire and now is known mostly as one of the Six Strangest Medieval Diseases. The origin of it wasn’t known. The fact is that microorganisms causing Syphillis is normally found in intestines of the Middle Eastern goats and sheep. The European Crusaders have never been known for their exceptional hygiene. In addition, the Middle Eastern goats could remind them their women they left back home.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_1000%E2%80%931499

Back to the future, the Daily Beast allegedly talks to alleged “Lebanese Hezbollah field commanders” whose names we will never know, because they don’t exist. Has the Daily Beast reported anything we don’t know? No.

Why have those alleged “Lebanese Hezbollah field commanders” complained to yankys that they are tired to fight?
[According to the Urban Dictionary: yanky. American wind sack, worst tpe of Human on the planet, lives with head inserted completely up his own rectum, there all very stupid…]

This piece of propaganda was posted a day after the DB proclaimed that “Russia buried Novorossia.” Really?

Reading the DB is a waste of time. If you still have some time to waste, please, remember, that the Daily Beast is owned by the same media holding IAC that owns CollegeHumor, which is devoid of any humor, just like the DB is devoid of any credibility.

So, is the interview of alleged “Lebanese Hezbollah field commanders” by the DB a betrayal? No. It’s a manufactured PSYOP to put a rift between Hezbollah, the Government of Syria, and the Russia’s Military.

“The Daily Beast, a prolific outlet for feverish Russophobia, which zeroes in on the American Committee for East-West Accord (ACEWA), the first paragraph of which serves as an object lesson in the methods and style of the new McCarthyism:
“It is, most would agree, a worthy goal: to promote ‘open, civilized, informed debate’ on Russian-American relations and bring about ‘a conclusive end to cold war and its attendant dangers.’ But there are reasons to believe that the American Committee for East-West Accord, which is having its formal launch with a Capitol Hill event scheduled for November 4, may be involved in a less admirable mission.”http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2015/10/13/the-new-mccarthyism/

Grammatically speaking, if writing for twitter is tweeting, then writing for the Daily Beast is the Daily Beasting. That makes the act of reading and trusting the DB to be the act of bestiality. See the first paragraph here.

Concerning Europe (EU/NATO): “when no news is good news” “the big event of the past two week is a non-event” Transcript from the Saker as above. Europe right now seems paralyzed still trying to “digest” the latest huge refuge wave. Europeans expect (with fear) more to come. I spoke recently to a German fellow (he is a scientist not politically engaged as far as I know) he expressed to have lost faith in German media and Merkel of course. Situation in the Nordic countries is about the same among the general population that they do not trust their current governments or the Media but (I wonder) is there some valid choice for these countries when election time comes? A the positive outcome (rather unexpected) of the refugee crisis is that many people (even in Nordic countries that have had historically a Russian animosity) have changed or start to change their minds as who is the “bad guy” from this “movie”. I see lesser and lesser negative comments about Putin/Russia in the comments section of the west controlled media.

Point “8” (“Co-opt as much as possible of the armed opposition to Assad into a common anti-Daesh front (in progress)”) will never hold water for the Russians, and furthermore, it indicates Putin must be quite desperate to even think of this.

In this context, a central question for The Saker would be: how does the present (lack of) progress in Syria affect the balance between the Euro-Asian Sovereignists and the Atlantic Integrationists (i.e., the fifth column) in the Russian power structure? Saker must have some good insight/information on this.

Point “8” (“Co-opt as much as possible of the armed opposition to Assad into a common anti-Daesh front (in progress)”) will never hold water for the Russians, and furthermore, it indicates Putin must be quite desperate to even think of this.

You are 100% wrong here. The point is to coopt the so-called ‘moderates’ (who are not moderate at all, but who are the same crazies who just felt the turn of the tide) in order to take away the *political* argument from the West that Russia is only supporting Assad. In military terms, *nobody* needs 5000 or so ex-Takfiris, nobody. The more ex-Daesh or al-Qaeda types understand that they are going to die, the more the so called “moderate opposition” will grow: same people – just now they work for the Russians :-)

how does the present (lack of) progress in Syria affect the balance between the Euro-Asian Sovereignists and the Atlantic Integrationists (i.e., the fifth column) in the Russian power structure?

Very good point. At this point, it all depends on what happens next. So far Putin has done well, but if the 5th column succeeds in arguing that the costs are too high (nonsense) or that the policy was misguided (not true), then they will try to make Putin pay for it. Also, the fact that the entire pro-capitalist clique is still in key positions in the Russian government and Central Bank proves that they are still strong enough and that Putin cannot touch them. So, alas, the situation remains highly dangerous and unstable. I wish I could say otherwise, but I still don’t see any signs of Putin finally purging the 5th columnists from power. But I keep hoping and waiting.

just a vague question in my mind-Assad’s amnesty to “moderate’ opposition….. is it working, effective, a temporary stop gap, or can be a successful re-intergration of these peoples back into Syrian Society……….or creating a future vipers nest that any? successful? future Vienna peace talks can successfully deal with for stabilisation of Syrian society, and hopefully attracting refugees to return to Syria and be able ????to be drafted/mobilised into a comprehensive professional military defensive force, that will ?always be dependant on Rus for support/partnership/contractual agreements whether military or more, to what degree ,etc etc?
Cheers for sitrep.

Stay away from tall buildings, especially HQ’s of major oil companies..
For the first time ever, Oil majors reporting losses… It has now gone far above shale producers with their AAA+ debt to major oil producers.. Expect Oil to drop to the mid $20 and stay there until Iran decided to let it up.

When Obama went to SA to plan this oil price drop and soon after the price dropped, the Iranians had a lot of meetings in Moscow and then Oil sliced through that $80 level like it did not exist and hit $70 where shale would get wacked quick.. But that was just an over reaction.. But then Russia started pumping out even more oil.. Iran says they will increase by 1 mil barrels in 6 months.. The plan was American.. The End game is Russian.. Taking SA out of this game is the only way to avoid a WW3 and drop the US$ reserve currency without killing hundreds of millions.

Iran was already selling Oil $5 cheaper… Iran does have expenses so do Russia but they are not inviting high class hookers to the $50/night suite every night.. Giving up vices might make others look at you like maybe you ARE hurting.. And when you are a trillionare.. All you have is the respect of money that others think you have..

Large scale IS attack Map of SAA positions in Deir-Ezzor 16/01/16
IS kidnapped more than 400 civilians yesterday during their large scale offensive in #DeirEzzor

Many suicide VBIED’s and shock troops with suicide vests. US must be getting desperate with the peace talks so close by.. Before running of after being defeated, they killed 300 women and children of the soldiers they had captured. All Sunni’s…https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/688765625896931328

Poor innocent freedom fighter is forced against his good nature 2 become an ISIS exploding rat – by Assad, who else?https://t.co/uLVnELFXGV

Written by Peto Lucem exclusively for SouthFront

Some analysts have expected the defense capability of insurgent forces in Latakia Governorate would diminish with the fall of their most important stronghold of Salma, which was liberated by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) on January 12. They were proven right. The last few days saw a dramatic decay in the enemy’s abillity to keep the advancing army forces at bay. Thus, the 103rd Brigade of the SAA, supported by elements of the National Defense Forces (NDF) and other formations, achieved a series of stunning successes and advanced deep into the enemy’s territory, which has been under firm insurgent control for more than 3 years.

After the fall of Salma, the SAA did not halt their advance. Instead they capitalized from their recent successes and kept up their momentum. Between 13 and 15 of January the SAA seized the villages of Kadin, Duwayrikah, Mrouniyat, Kurt Fawqani and Kurt Tahtani. It seems like the army focuses on the central sector of the operation area to prevent insurgents to dig in after the fall of the nearby town of Salma. Another reason for this offensive could be the fact that the SAA wanted to shorten the frontline here, to allow a future attack of the important town of Al-Sirmaniyah in the northern al Ghab plains. This important village is located approximately 5,5 miles south-west of the town of Jisr al-Shughour, which was captured by the insurgency last April.

January 17 saw another series of stunning SAA successes. During these attacks the army imposed control over Sindiyān and Kazbar hills near the insurgent-held village of al-Sukkariyyah. With these two important locations under the SAA control, the position for the increasingly disorganized insurgent forces in Latakia have became untenable. Only some hours later, al-Sukkariyyah also fell to the SAA.

Simultaneously to the attack on Sukkariyya, the army launched an assault on the insurgent positions near their last remaining stronghold in Latakia Governorate: the town of Rabi’ah. The nearby village of Bayt Ablaq fell swiftly after a short skirmish with disorganized insurgent forces.

If Rabi’ah, the village of Toros and Qaya Bashia mountain, located approxamently 1,5 miles to the south-west fall, remaining insurgents in the Sharan area (west of Rabi’ah) will be cut off. A total collapse of the remaining enemy forces in Latakia Governorate will be most likely the consequence.

The Russians and the government are making progress, but terribly slow. Winning Salma (2300 inhabitants) while slowly losing Deir Ez-Zor (over 200,000 inhabitants) is not really encouraging, even when one takes into account the strategic significance of Salma.

With some sanctions lifted against Iran, the BBC reported that Iran is ready to order 114 Airbus aircraft to replace its ageing fleet of Boeings. Can this be true? Would Iranians really order these aircraft from their NATO enemies? Russia produces passenger aircraft, why wouldn’t the Iranians buy these instead? Of course the BBC could be wrong or the Iranians could be stringing the EU along. Let’s hope so,

Why not?
see today 17th looks like the yanks are even already positioning to sell them to Iran:

http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13941027001580
TEHRAN (FNA)- Washington’s decades-old ban on the export of civilian passenger aircraft to Tehran has been lifted by US President Barack Obama, who delegated that authority to Secretary of State John Kerry through a presidential memorandum Friday.

The move was announced ahead of the implementation of Iran’s historic nuclear deal with world powers, which happened on Saturday.

Iran still after all their travails still seems to be behaving like a bunch of starry-eyed seriously stuck-on-stupid village idiots in their seeming desperation to “be allowed” back in to the int’l community.

SWIFT is incorporated under Belgian law and has to comply with related EU regulation, as confirmed by the Belgian government.

An Iranian official had earlier said that the country will reconnect to SWIFT by the end of January.

Head of Iran Chamber of Commerce Mohsen Jalalpour told reporters in Tehran on Sunday that today Iran will re-apply to join the SWIFT.

(Granted, I do see this claimed action of purchasing foreign pass airliners, but not from Russia, as a snide slight against Russia for that non-delivery of the S-300s years ago ca 2010, which they still have not received!)
Just another carrot dangled under their nose is all.

There is no doubt that small arms, not missiles and rockets, are being supplied to both. The Russian deal with Israel is to restrict munitions that would reach Israel. It is obvious, also, that Russia will not “protect” any attacker of Israel. Though the S 400 certainly restricts air strikes by the IDF.

Ultimately, Israel loses because Russia will have Syria, will wind up protecting Lebanon, will have deep connections with Jordan and the gas and oil situation will be worked out with Russia, China and Israel coming to some “deal”.

As terrorism is destroyed, economic and hegemonic issues will be resolved diplomatically (and economically). Only the US and its vassals and the insane Arabs financing ISIS and AQ differ.

Israel may persist with much of its internal policies unchanged, but its foreign policy follows the shekel. It’s about the $$$. Israel has to remain a trading nation. Its economy depends on selling products.

And if you look at the news this week and next, China is coming via President Xi to Egypt and other Arab states to make deals. Israel has to keep up with the neighbors in trade. Eurasia and the New Silk Road and Maritime Silk Road are the coming growth for trade. And now Iran is out of the cage of sanctions. Another competitor for trade.

Agreed. The Vision 2020 policy has failed and Exceptionalism is in retreat. Billions in paper dollars are being erased, while the SCO has a big lead with the Next Big Thing: Eurasian then African integration. Just barely begun, the Outlaw US Empire’s retreat has commenced, and given its past behavior, it will find it difficult to become partners with Russia or China despite Putin’s rhetoric. I look for Clinton to be arrested and sacrificed to the rule of law and Sanders to become president as a major signal by the Deep State that it’s changing its ways.

I’m usually not so optimistic, my cynicism generally wins-out. But I find it hard to dismiss the signs of subtle change, particularly in pursuing Vision 2020. And the very visible changing of the planet’s climate system can no longer be ignored, and has the power to trump everything.

It is way too early to trumpet the end of war,even in the Middle-East,not to say about the economic war witch will increase this year.Just look at the savage in the World Markets.It doesn’t looks like something peaceful.The so called success by lifting the Iranian sanctions doesn’t mean that everything will be fine for that region.Israel is opposing vehemently those agreements and the saudis are not happy either.There is no new Market where to export goods because the Markets are full.So,we stand before a new reshaping of the world economy witch will be a little bit buggy.Personally I don’t share your optimism at all.

“… “It is puzzling from a NATO perspective that this ally wants to develop offensive missile capabilities,” said one NATO ambassador in Ankara. “Turkey is part of the security umbrella. We are not sure if any Turkish effort for offensive missiles makes strategic sense … despite [Turkey’s] legitimate perceptions of increased military threat in its region.” …”

Says: he has managed to turn the former peace process with Kurds into a terrible full-fledged civil war, has disastrously embroiled himself in Syrian conflict while still dreaming to depose Assad, has gotten terror-bombed in Istanbul by his own ISIL wards – and blaming everyone else for it but himself, and has managed not only to ruin relations with Russia, but also with Iraq, Iran Egypt and Israel…

I agree with your assessment concerning Russian ground forces entering the conflict, though there is obviously a contingent of advisors and special ops forces engaged with the SAA. However, beyond your contention that the Russian military is not configured for long-range power projection, I would add two thoughts. The first being putting Russian military boots on the ground would play right into the empires anti-Russian propaganda apparatus. For reasons quite obvious. The second one being, and this is more asking for clarification as to the reasons why you believe Syria would equate to long-range projection, considering the distance between it and the Russian border is not very significant by modern standards? This is not an effort to question your expertice but merely a request for your reasons for your statement in this regard.

Excellent and spot-on analysis by The Saker here. I cannot say anything other than I agree with him 100% on this one.

I have been expecting the colossal alliance of North America, Europe, Turkey, Israel & GCC to come up with some kind of gradual escalation, but they have not done much so far. They are either brewing something mega, or they are simply clueless. Probably the second.

It seems to me that the only weapon left to the Degenerate Alliance, is the crushing of the oil price, which poses great risks to them as well as to Russia/Iran/Iraq. 2016 will be a tumultuous year for oil producers everywhere. If Russia survives this, NATO-GCC are in deep ****.

Basically, the mightiest economic and technological powers of the planet have only managed in 4 months time, to shoot down an ancient Russian Air Force bomber and cowardly and barbarously kill one Russian pilot. That’s it! While the incident was tragic and infuriating for us, and something for which the vile Turkish regime will pay dearly for in the coming years, it’s a perfectly acceptable kind of loss when faced with a Global Hybrid War against the all of the world’s rich nations at once (plus against lots of their barbarous lackeys)

” I have been expecting the colossal alliance of North America, Europe, Turkey, Israel & GCC to come up with some kind of gradual escalation ”

Sure, yes. But how exactly?

There were never any good options. The key point of Russia’s intervention in Syria – lost to all journalists and analysts i am aware of – is, that the Russians went to war not against the army of a sovereign nation but against ISIS and Al Qaida, CIA/Mossad/Gladio’s top two mercenary outfits, that officially don’t even exist.

How to defend something, that doesn’t exist? This tricky question will keep the Empire’s hired strategists and think-tank staffers busy for next ten years.

Yes, the problem for NATO-GCC, is that ISIS/AQ are already their crack troops for the most daunting missions. So, once the ISIS/AQ proxies have been caught with their pants down, NATO-GCC “strategists” have been found wanting.

Since supplying their Takfiri proxies with MANPADS would elicit a similar counter-move from Russia in other theaters (Kurds, Hezbollah, Yemen) the NATO-GCC Alliance of Degenerates, has as the only real option to come up with a way to enhance the already existing proxies on the ground with some kind of special forces units from the precious NATO countries themselves. But as we all know, NATO’s soldiers (even the Special Forces) are not-too-able to fight real wars, with real enemies.

The other option was to come up with some new kind of proxy. But their best lunatic-savage-mercenaries were already enlisted in the ISIS/AQ outfits. Anything else at this point can only be some quite useless (in military terms) formation of “moderate-pro-western” Syrians”. Basically, another “propaganda-formation” such as the FSA.

Here’s hoping that all and any Russian bombs and bullets find their designated targets.

Al-Qaeda’s Bid for Power in Northwest #Syria… in Nov. 2014, AQ preemptively took out Saudi & Western-backed groups

In the past week, the Nusra Front—a Syrian affiliate of al-Qaeda—has attacked rival factions in northwestern Syria, capturing headquarters, bases, and arms stockpiles belonging to both the Syria Revolutionaries’ Front (SRF) and the Hazm Movement. Both groups are considered mainstays of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a nebulous network of Western-, Turkish-, and Gulf-funded factions. And they are among the best-known examples of the moderate rebels that the United States seeks to vet, train, and equip to take on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and anti-Western jihadi factions in the opposition.

Will the Russian Air Force be able to make a difference on the ground?

Yes, probably, says David A. Deptula—and he should know. A retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant-general and air warfare theoretician, Deptula planned the American bombing campaign against Saddam Hussein’s army in 1991, when the U.S. and its allies—including, at the time, Syria—liberated Kuwait from Iraqi occupation. Ten years later he oversaw the air war that toppled the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

“With competent pilots and with an effective command and control process, the addition of these aircraft could prove very effective depending on the desired objectives for their use,” Deptula told the New York Times. Which begs the question, what are those objectives?

But I cannot claim credit for some of my favorite texts during the year, including Yezid Sayigh’s explainer of how gas and oil pipelines affect the conduct of the war, Kheder Khaddour’s investigation of how President Bashar al-Assad has exploited his control over Syrian state institutions, or Maha Yahya’s and Maya Zreik’s commentary on the struggle of Lebanese volunteer workers to bring education to Syrian refugee children, not to mention this magnificent three-piece survey of the evolution of the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Libya, by Fred Wehrey and Ala’ al-Rababa’h.

May GOD condemn this poor wretched idiots soul into a misery for eternity in hell.

One Syrian’s Journey From Hometown Rebel to ISIS Bomber

His sister and parents, financially struggling refugees in a neighboring country, refuse to talk about him. “What do you want to write, to give advice to others not to be like him?” his sister said bitterly over the phone.

A Syrian government victory in Aleppo could be the beginning of the end of the sectarian mindset that would have been alien to the city prior to 2011. There is no more appropriate city to begin Syria’s healing. A Syrian government victory in Aleppo will make it harder to rationalize Western backing for jihadi groups who want to keep up the fight against long odds in the rest of the country.

And because it’s Al-Monitor they must twist —

This column has warned for more than two years of the campaign to mainstream radical jihadi groups under the rubric of the “moderate” Syria opposition. This trend has done a disservice to the true secular, democratic opposition that rose against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2011.

The seige of Allepo is taking shape and so is the media strategy portraying Assad starving his people to death in pursuit of ‘moderate-secular-democratic’ oppositionists.

Whatever.

The Syrian Arab Army must close off Allepo and do everything they can to force the jihadis out as q

What I think as the greatest achievement of the Russian intervention is the fact that it put back firmly on the table the notion of Syrian sovereignty. And of Iraq too. The ideas of partitioning Syria or Iraq are dead. All problems must be talked in the United Nations framework. No R2P anymore, despite Samantha Power’s antics.
The more fighters for Daesh flock to Syria, the less are left in the future “target” countries, especially Russia. In Syria, they would be slowly eliminated.

excellent review!
No news about France’s campaign “against daesh”
“Bobo-charlies” are totally zombified by the media and their Jean-Pierre Pernaut news style about how France WAS great, tourism, lost caftmanship in villages etc.
well anything but real international news. lie by omission as I call it.
Terracts against French military in Ouagadoudou always comme handy to keep the divert focus on somethin else

I am surprised everyone is ignoring the massacre of women and children of soldiers in DeirEzzor. I am sure nato wanted something like this so the Syrian soldiers would commit the same atrocities in moderate criminal held areas to tell about the savagery of assad. Why else ignore it? This crime is far worse than the NKVD killing captured polish officers. At least there those were soldiers.. Not just killing their families. First the Canadians bomb the base and now IS is making a major offensive there taking advantage of a dust storm. Some minor western media has reported on this.
They have killed 300 and kidnapped 400 hostages.
Russia dropped humanitarian aid the other day so the soldiers could hold on.

On Saturday morning, the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) conducted a massive offensive to capture the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) controlled villages of ‘Ayyash and Al-Bughayliyah in the Deir Ezzor Governorate’s northwestern countryside.

Initially, ISIS was successful in breaching the Syrian Arab Army’s frontline defenses in northwestern Deir Ezzor, capturing the ‘Ayyash weapons depot and the ‘Ayyash fuel station, along with several neighborhoods near the Euphrates Hotel inside eastern Al-Bughayliyah on Saturday.

Undeterred by the limited success on Saturday, ISIS launched another assault the following morning, capturing the ‘Ayyash weapons depot once again, while attempting to advance past the eastern district near the Euphrates River.

According to a military source in the Deir Ezzor Military Airport, the Syrian Armed Forces were able to recapture the Jami’yah Al-Rawad Neighborhood and the Radio Broadcast Tower; these are considered to be the most important points in Al-Bughayliyah.

I assume your NATO/US suspicions lie with the Turkish HDP. If so, I agree. They are currently being led by a Kurd marketed as the ‘Kurdish Obama.’

But the PKK are old-school Marxists – you can be sure the autonomy they have fought long and hard for never included such absurdities as gay ‘marriage.’
Nor do they have any intention of becoming the next ‘Israel.’

The Barzani clan in Northern Iraq are an oil-smuggling mafia and fast losing control. Their mai
n challenge is from the Iran-backed Gorran (Change).
Barzani is currently trying to instigate an insurrection against Baghdad, presumably to permit a Turkish intervention – overtly – and Israeli support – covertly. Israel is the main beneficiary of the oil-smuggling operation.

The Syrian YPD, though led currently by a Turkish-based Kurd, are leaning towards a pro-Assad, intact Syria with autonomy for Syrian Kurds. Their close connection to the SAA, as well as Assad’s both political and military support suggests they are not likely to be US-rael/oil-cartel stooges/patsies, whatever about the Iraqis.

I do Not know much regarding Economics, but this is merely an opinion from a Novice, regarding the low price of Oil.

I think that a higher price of oil allowed Countries to make more Money from Oil, and so they could then purchase Goods and Services from the Richer Countries, and so this was good for these Countries.

The low oil prices could be the reason why Many Countries have Economic problems, because a Seller needs People to have Money to purchase their Goods and Services.

We know that with less Money from Oil to purchase Goods and Services from the more Expensive Countries, then this could mean that these Countries will have to purchase from the less Expensive Countries, and these would include China, India, and other Countries.

It could also mean that some of these Goods and Services could now be Produced in those Countries that export Oil.

This is an opinion from a Novice on Economics, and Countries Employ Expert Economists to provide those Governments with Policies on their Economies.

There are Many People who think that the European Union should do what it can to Stabilize Syria, and lift the Economic Sanctions on Syria, because Syrian Refugees want to return to Syria.

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