NBA 2015-2016 Season Preview & Predictions

Another NBA Season is upon us! Here is my preview for all 30 NBA teams, the postseason, the award winners, and everything else! Best of luck to your team, unless you don’t root for the team I like. As always, leave your feedback in the comments. -Tommy Rothman

For the 100th year in a row, LeBron James’ crew has to be the favorite in the East. James is the best player alive and his teammates aren’t bad either. Kevin Love is a star, as is Kyrie Irving, although the latter will miss at least a couple months. So will Iman Shumpert, a very good perimeter defender. JR Smith is a solid scorer off the bench but cannot be trusted in any way. Tristan Thompson is a very solid role player who got paid like a star, and Timofey Mozgov finally learned how to translate his huge frame into actual NBA production. Matthew Dellavedova is a great guy to bring in off the bench, even if his 15 minutes of superstardom will never return, and Anderson Varejao is the ultimate hustler who just needs to find a way to stay healthy. All in all, the Cavs have a lot of good players and three great ones. In a weak Eastern Conference, they’re the obvious top dogs, and it’s hard to see LeBron falling short of a sixth straight Finals appearance. Playoff Odds: 95%

The Heat suffered the shocking blow of losing LeBron James last summer, and lost Chris Bosh to a serious medical scare during the season, missing the playoffs after four straight trips to the Finals. James is gone for good, but Bosh is back, as is Heat legend Dwyane Wade. Goran Dragic was brought aboard at the deadline and given an extension this summer, and Hassan Whiteside came out of nowhere to become a very solid NBA center in South Beach. Luol Deng isn’t the same player he once was, but he’s still a good role player, as is Amar’e Stoudemire, who is finally being paid in a manner consistent with his remaining potential. Gerald Green was a great get at the minimum, and Justise Winslow might prove to be the steal of the draft if he can develop offensively and overcome his lack of size to remain a great defender through his transition to the NBA. Mario Chalmers is nothing more than a decent player, but he’s a very good option as a backup point guard. Udonis Haslem will never not be on the Heat, so he’s obviously back. And then you have the Birdman, as Chris Andersen returns for another campaign. This Heat team is deep, talented, and dangerous. And the pain is out of their system. Miami is ready to bounce back from the desertion of LeBron and challenge King James (not Ennis) in the East. Playoff Odds: 90%

The Bulls fired Tom Thibodeau, a bold move considering that Thibodeau is one of the best coaches around. But Thibs constantly clashed with the front office, and his departure was inevitable. Also inevitable is the eventual absence of Derrick Rose, who will at least play in the opener despite breaking his eye over the summer (He broke his eye! How do you break an eye? Seriously, Derrick…). But Rose’s fall from the ranks of the NBA’s elite does not spell doom in Chicago. Jimmy Butler is ready to emerge as a true star on both ends of the ball after signing an extension this summer, and Pau Gasol, while he can’t possibly be as good as he was last year, showed that he’s not done just yet. Joakim Noah has regressed sharply, but is still a good player who is strong on defense and unique, if not prolific, on offense. Taj Gibson is a seriously underrated big. Nikola Mirotic could win Most Improved Player, and fellow sophomore Doug McDermott can give the Bulls a major boost by showing off some of the scoring chops he displayed in college two years ago. Bobby Portis was a good pick where the Bulls got him. Overall, this is a stacked frontcourt, and Aaron Brooks can give solid minutes at the point alongside Butler, even in the event of Rose’s demise. But don’t completely count out Rose. He won’t be able to go full-throttle, but when he’s on the court, he’s still a dynamic point guard who can spearhead the offense and close out games when needed. Speaking of the offense, look for that side of the ball to become the main focus with Fred Hoiberg joining the NBA ranks and filling in for the defensive-minded Thibodeau. This Bulls team isn’t elite, but they should be very good and continue to be a serious factor in the East. Playoff Odds: 85%

The Hawks outdid themselves last year, so we should definitely expect some of that good ol’ “regression to the mean” business down South. When you add in the loss of DeMarre Carroll, the impossibility of a second straight year with no major injuries to key players (although bench player Thabo Sefolosha had his leg broken by an NYPD cop), the improved Eastern Conference and the strengthening of many of last year’s “doormat” teams, a win total in the 40s is far more likely than one in the 60s. Expect the Hawks to go back to being what they usually are, a very solid but not elite team. Jeff Teague has become a very good point guard and Al Horford is quietly a star-caliber center. It looked like Paul Millsap might chase the money elsewhere, but the Hawks brought him back too, keeping the core of last year’s Eastern #1 seed intact. Playoff Odds: 85%

The Raptors are the main casualty of the new rule in which winning the Division means absolutely nothing. No longer does Toronto have an easy road to a top-four seed. But with the dynamic backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, the newly-added DeMarre Carroll on the wing, and the towering Jonas Valanciunas down low, the Raptors have plenty of balance and no shortage of very skilled players. Bismack Biyombo might prove to be a steal, as he can protect the rim with the best of them. Don’t expect anything from Anthony Bennett, as the former #1 overall pick is merely a guy you take a flyer on at this point, but don’t expect much of a challenge from a weak Atlantic Division, against whom the Raptors will play 16 times over the course of the East’s easiest schedule. Playoff Odds: 75%

Notable injuries: Parker out indefinitely. Ennis out until at least early November.

The Bucks went from 15 wins to 41 despite not having the guy they landed with their draft pick for much of the season. Jabari Parker will miss the beginning of this season as he continues to rehab that torn ACL, but he should work his way back and into the starting lineup before long. Giannis Antetokounmpo has gotten better every year and, although he is currently overrated because of his potential, his odds of reaching that much-talked about ceiling seem pretty good. Greg Monroe was the big offseason splash for Milwaukee this summer, and while he isn’t a franchise big man, he’s certainly a very good player on the offensive end and will fill the Bucks’ low-post scoring void right away. Khris Middleton gives the Bucks a solid scoring guard and Michael-Carter Williams can do a bit of pretty much everything— aside from shooting, as his jumper is a glaring weakness that must be addressed if he is to become anything more than “pretty good.” The Bucks lost Ersan Ilyasova, Zaza Pachulia and Jared Dudley, and they probably outplayed themselves a bit last year with the roster that was on the floor, so I’m not projecting them for a big jump to the 55+ win mark. But they have 50-win upside, and their 40+ win campaign will be much less shocking than the previous one. Oh, and I would remiss if I did not take this opportunity to endorse Chris Copeland’s MVP campaign. Playoff Odds: 75%

John Wall has become a superstar in Washington, and Bradley Beal looks like he’ll become a very good player, if not an elite one. Marcin Gortat is an underrated weapon at center, and Otto Porter Jr. finally started to make good on some of his potential late last season. But this team isn’t all that deep, and an(other) injury to Wall could send this team spiraling out of the playoff picture, if a letdown from his supporting cast doesn’t do that already. This is the first truly risky team in the East, at least until Kevin Durant returns home as the prophecy has foretold. Playoff Odds: 60%

The Knicks had the worst season in franchise history last year and were the second-worst team in the league, which, as we saw on Lottery Night, is the only thing worse than being the worst team in the league. After winning 54 games three years ago and 37 the next, the Knicks plummeted to an unthinkable 17 wins last year as Murphy’s Law (not the one bringing joy to the hearts of Mets fans) took hold. Injuries plagued many of the team’s good players and the rest were shipped off to better places, leaving a team of nobodies playing out the string. This year’s Knicks should be much better, even if that’s not saying much. Reason number one? Carmelo Anthony. Melo played hurt from the second week of the season to his merciful shutdown after the All-Star Break, leaving the Knicks with no stars and hardly any role players as JR Smith, Iman Shumpert, Amar’e Stoudemire and others were sent packing. But Melo is back and looked healthy during the preseason. As long as he stays healthy (not a given), the Knicks have one of the league’s premier scorers, giving instant credibility to what was a punchless offense last season. Carmelo might not be enough to take a team to the championship on his own, but he can certainly carry a team to the playoffs in the East. The defense should also be much better thanks in large part to the addition of Robin Lopez. Langston Galloway, one of the lone bright spots in last season’s debacle, is a very strong defender and rebounder with a solid, if not consistent, jumper. Arron Afflalo came cheap after a down year in Portland, but if he can defend half as well as he used to and knock down his threes, he’ll be very valuable to this team. José Calderón was a disappointment last year as he battled injuries throughout the season, and his defense is a major negative at this point, but he is still a steadying hand on the offense with a terrific jumper. Kristaps Porzingis is a mystery, but his elite length and athleticism, combined with his sweet stroke, will manifest in the form of highlight blocks and a barrage of pick-and-pop jumpers. Porzingis will also be able to blow by slower bigs and help create mismatches all over the floor. He’s probably a couple years away from reaching his potential, but he can contribute in year one. Another rookie who should make an impact is former Notre Dame star Jerian Grant, a skilled, smart guard who sees the floor well, plays great defense, and can get to the rim. Grant could, and should, push Calderón for minutes out of the gate. Another guy with upside is 2011 #2 overall pick Derrick Williams, a great finisher and an incredible athlete who needs to start playing harder on the defensive end to become a starting-caliber player. Phil Jackson also made a couple of sneaky frontcourt adds in high-energy bruiser Kyle O’Quinn and skilled scorer Kevin Seraphin, who needs to learn to move the ball to have any success in the Triangle Offense. This Knicks team has the firepower to be pretty good, in large part owing to the fact that they now have more than two or three decent players. Everything hinges on the health of Carmelo Anthony. If he stays on the court, and the new guys play like they should, the Knicks could very well return to glorious mediocrity and put last season behind them. Again, Melo’s health is a big if. That’s why I’m giving the Knicks a 40% chance at making it. I think they’re more likely to pull it off than the two or three teams closest to them, though. A not-so-fun factor: They have nothing to lose and no reason not to chase the 8 seed, as they’ve traded their upcoming draft pick for Andrea Bargnani. Playoff Odds: 40%

The Celtics unloaded Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green midway through last season, but still fought their way to a playoff spot. Most of the team returns this year, with Amir Johnson and David Lee making for a solid pair of frontcourt additions. After years as a complimentary option in Golden State, however, it remains to be seen how Lee can perform when relied upon to play a major role in an offense. It’s unlikely that he’ll play as well as he did in New York during the Isiah Thomas era, however. The other Isaiah Thomas (he spells it differently, helping to reduce the confusion) could contend for Sixth Man of the Year if he comes off the bench behind Marcus Smart. Between those two, Avery Bradley, and Evan Turner, Boston has a few solid weapons in the backcourt. James Young and Terry Rozier have upside, but are unlikely to make real impacts this season. Jae Crowder could develop into a star, as he already has the tools to be an elite defender alongside Bradley on the perimeter. Jared Sullinger is skilled offensively, but the rest of his game needs serious work, as does his conditioning. Kelly Olynyk’s sophomore year will be remembered for his potentially-intentional destruction of Kevin Love’s shoulder, but he quietly had a pretty solid season while he was healthy, helping further dispel the popular notion that he would be a draft bust. This Boston team is nothing more than a mix of pretty good players, but they don’t have too many weaknesses (although they could use a few more shooters). The upside might not be too high (aside from that of Marcus Smart), but the floor isn’t low, and Brad Stevens’ crew should finish somewhere between 35 and 45 wins in the Atlantic, making them a very strong contender for one of the final playoff spots in the East. And while what Boston lacks is an offensive star, it’s worth noting that they have plenty of assets that could be used in a midseason trade if they decide to be buyers rather than sellers this time around. Playoff Odds: 35%

The Pacers are the third team in what should be a very exciting (in a sad way) race for the final playoff spot in the East. If the Wizards slip, or another team takes a shocking tumble, it’s possible that more than one of the Knicks, Celtics, and Pacers could sneak in. Indiana will have a full season of Paul George after the two-way stud missed most of last season with a broken leg. They’ve also added Monta Ellis, a gifted scorer with a knack for late-game heroics. Gone, however, are Roy Hibbert and David West. Hibbert has many flaws, but his role as a defensive anchor on the interior was an important one and he will be hard for the Pacers to replace. West was certainly past his prime, but was still an important scoring option on an offense that will almost certainly struggle to put the ball in the net. With a lack of depth, shooting, defenders, interior scorers, or a go-to offensive star (if Ellis tries to take over, it will only get worse), the Pacers might not improve much even with the return of George. With other teams in the East and around the league due for big jumps, the Pacers will likely end up with around the same win total, as there are fewer easy wins to be had. But if things break right, Indy could crack 40 wins and return to the playoffs. Playoff Odds: 35%

The Magic have quietly built an okay team that has some upside, making them a decent contender for a playoff spot in the East. Tobias Harris is a talented scorer and Victor Oladipo is turning into a solid player who can become a two-way star if he improves his jumper. Nikola Vucevic is a terrific center who rarely seems to get the attention he deserves, and Elfrid Payton’s career got off to a promising start as he earned a spot on the All-Rookie First Team last year. Aaron Gordon’s rookie year was derailed by injury, but don’t count out last year’s #4 overall pick. And keep an eye out for Mario Hezonja, a knockdown shooter with explosive athleticism, great size and absurd swagger. Add in veteran stretch-fours Channing Frye and Jason Smith, and the Magic have several guys who could contribute. If this team gels and the young guys stay healthy and develop, they could surprise a lot of people as early as this season. Playoff Odds: 30%

Charlotte has basically every college star ever, but the likes of Tyler Hansbrough won’t do them much good in the NBA. Kemba Walker and Al Jefferson give Michael Jordan’s team a strong guard-big core, but an injury-prone one. Even putting potential injuries aside, the loss of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to a shoulder injury will open up a huge hole on this team, which relies on MKG’s defensive skill-set. Bismack Biyombo is gone as well, opening up the paint a bit more for opposing scorers. Kemba is fun and flashy, but a bit overrated as an offensive option— he shot 38% from the field last year. Nicolas Batum had a down year last season, but swapping Gerald Henderson for him was still a good move. Frank Kaminsky will struggle to be an impact player at the NBA level, but he knows how to make shots from all over the court facing all types of defensive pressure, which is something that can’t be taken away from him. Jeremy Lin has probably become a bit under-rated, at least offensively. This team might score a decent amount of points. But they don’t have many steady options and lack an elite player on that end, and the defense might be downright horrible. Look for the Hornets to tread water in the middle of the East’s bottom tier, which is the worst place to be for a team that needs to rebuild through the draft— not that recent picks have yielded them much success. Playoff Odds: 30%

Detroit lost Greg Monroe, which everybody saw coming, but they still have Andre Drummond down low and Reggie Jackson at the point, so they’re not completely devoid of talent. They also have intriguing rookie Stanley Johnson, who probably should have stayed in college for another year or two, and Brandon Jennings, who should return within the first couple months from his Achilles tear. Jodie Meeks is nothing more than a role player and Marcus Morris isn’t nearly as good as his twin, but they are worthy rotation players. Ersan Ilyasova and his contract were acquired from the Bucks over the summer, and he could serve as a useful stretch four next to Drummond. But with Drummond’s offensive skill-set quite limited, the Pistons will have a lot of trouble scoring inside, and they don’t have that many sharpshooters on the squad to stretch the floor. Defensively, Drummond can’t do it all himself inside, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will need help shutting down the perimeter. The Pistons won’t be dreadful, and they could contend for the 8th seed if Jackson can translate his strong finish last year into 82 games of excellence, but they likely need help from outside if they are to build a seriously competitive team. Playoff odds: 25%

Brooklyn’s “Five Year Champion Plan” completely fell apart, leaving the team without much talent, flexibility, draft pick ammunition, youth, or star power. They salvaged some hope by somehow flipping a washed-up Kevin Garnett to the sentimental Timberwolves for Thaddeus Young, but after Young, the aging Joe Johnson and the injury-prone Brook Lopez, the team is very weak. Most of these guys are reclamation projects. Jarret Jack is pretty good, but is a far cry from Deron Williams, whose decline and unhappiness in Brooklyn led to a buyout this summer. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson might turn out to be pretty good, but the move to trade one of the team’s lone bright spots in Mason Plumlee was absolutely baffling. Andrea Bargnani may have been a solid get for the minimum salary, but he’ll need to shore up his defense and rebounding if he wants to be a viable option for this team rather than a net-negative scoring “specialist.” If Lopez stays healthy and has a career year, and Johnson can be selective while remaining productive with his shot, this Nets team might compete for a playoff spot in the East, but even their spot in the weak Atlantic Division isn’t enough for me to see this team posting more than 30 wins. There’s no depth and very little promise. Playoff Odds: 25%

Notable injuries: Embiid out for season. Wroten out until at least December. Covington out until at least mid-November.

The 76ers are the worst team in the league, once again by design. Joel Embiid looks like the second coming of Greg Oden. They traded reigning ROY Michael Carter-Williams at the deadline last year. They have made no effort to improve in the short term. They do have Nerlens Noel and rookie Jahlil Okafor, so the team will be worth watching once in awhile. But injuries to Embiid, Robert Covington, and Tony Wroten take most of what little punch this team may have had away from them. The Sixers will serve to pad the records of the other teams in the East, especially the Atlantic teams. If the Timberwolves want to continue their streak of having the #1 overall pick on their roster, Philly looks like it might be the team to trade with. Playoff Odds: 15%

The Warriors essentially return the entire squad which cruised to the best record in the league and the NBA championship in Steve Kerr’s first year as coach. Stephen Curry blossomed into an MVP-caliber player (and took home the trophy), while Klay Thompson and Draymond Green took huge strides as well. This team can kill you with the three, they can kill you with small-ball, and when they want to play more traditional ball, they have one of the best defensive anchors in the league in Andrew Bogut. This team is so good that they practically gave away David Lee to help him get minutes on a team that actually needed him. With a terrific starting five and a great bench headlined by Finals MVP Andre Iguodala, look for this team to lead the way out West again this season. Playoff Odds: 95%

The Rockets rode a career year from James Harden all the way to the Western Conference Finals, where they dropped two nail-biters to begin the series with the Warriors and eventually bowed out to the eventual champs in five. Houston led the league in threes attempted by a wide margin, which helped them lead the league in threes made despite having only the 14th best percentage in the league from beyond the arc. The Rockets were near the top in free throws attempted, but near the bottom in accuracy from the line, much of which can be attributed to Dwight Howard. Speaking of Howard, he’s happy in Houston. If he’s healthy, the Rockets have the game’s most dominant physical big man anchoring the paint. As if Harden and Howard weren’t enough, Houston added star point guard Ty Lawson for practically nothing, as the Nuggets were desperate to get rid of the troubled speedster. If he keeps focused on the game (a big if), Lawson can turn the Rockets into a true title contender. Playoff Odds: 85%

The Spurs practice hypnosis. It’s the only way. It’s the only explanation for how they routinely get star players, both young and old, to bend to the financial whims of Greg Popovich and his salary-cap-managing minions. After keeping the old stars together, getting Danny Green to sign quickly and (relatively cheaply), getting Kawhi Leonard to wait for the rest of the roster to fall into place before getting his big payday, the Spurs brought in star forward LaMarcus Aldridge before getting veteran big man David West to sign for the minimum. Other than Tiago Splitter, San Antonio suffered hardly any casualties in this daring raid of the free agent market. Their team is loaded, and Aldridge, Leonard and Green are ready to take the mantle from Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, and Manu Ginobili. All three of whom are still around, by the way. While their inevitable breakdown (soon, soon, I promise) could come this year and knock the Spurs down a couple notches in the West, the suddenly young core gives this team what is likely a 50-win floor and a ceiling in the 60s, if their coach (well into his 60s, mind you) pushes his players harder in the regular season after a low seed and a tough matchup led to a first-round exit last season. Playoff Odds: 90%

If the Thunder are healthy, they could be the best team in the league. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are absolute superstars, and OKC also boasts a terrific pair of big men in Serge Ibaka and Enes Kanter, with Steven Adams in the mix as well. Dion Waiters can create a shot from anywhere (for better or worse), and Anthony Morrow and Steve Novak are two of the game’s top sharpshooters. Cameron Payne was a steal in the draft, and Billy Donovan may have been the biggest coaching hire of the summer as he finally opted to leave his post at Florida after 19 seasons. But can this team stay healthy? Durant and Westbrook have each had their health issues. And although they tend to put up otherworldly numbers in each other’s absence, one must not forget that, when both are on the court, they won’t both be putting up 40 points a night. Still, this team should be able to grab a playoff spot if one of the stars misses time, and could push 60+ wins if both enjoy a full campaign. The upside his high, and so are the stakes: Durant’s contract expires next summer. Playoff Odds: 80%

The Clippers-Mavericks-DeAndre saga is the craziest thing that has happened in the NBA since either the Clippers-Lakers-CP3 saga or the Clippers-Sterling-America saga. While the CP3 chaos was horribly mishandled by the NBA and the Sterling ordeal was a complete disgrace, the kidnapping of DeAndre Jordan will go down as one of the finest moments in league history, as it gave us Blake Griffin’s legendary tweet and exposed the absurdity of the “moratorium” period. More importantly, it kept the Clippers together, and they now have a Big 3 of the game’s best pure point guard, one of the best offensive big men, and one of the top rim protectors. The Clippers also have a great mix of veterans, playmakers, cold-blooded late-game killers, versatile swingmen, sparkplugs, the horrible hands, horrible hook shot, great energy and great size of Cole Aldrich, and, of course, Pablo Prigioni. They also have one of the game’s best coaches running the show in Doc Rivers. The Clippers are the team that matters in LA— look for them to make some noise in the West once again, as the fifth and likely final team in the West with real championship upside. Playoff Odds: 85%

Memphis continued its eternal run as a staple of the Western Conference’s upper-middle-tier last year, and they should be back this year after managing to keep star center Marc Gasol. Gasol and Randolph give the Grizzlies a fantastic tandem down low, and Mike Conley (as long as he sticks around) has proven to be a very, very solid point guard. Jeff Green is a great complementary option, and Tony Allen remains one of the elite defenders in this league. The Grizzlies could use a better bench, and they’ll probably drop some wins this year as the league is much deeper, but they remain a factor in the West, a team nobody wants to run into when the season is on the line. Playoff Odds: 75%

Notable injuries: Evans, Ajinca out until at least early November, Pondexter out until at least mid-November, Cole out until at least late November, Babbit, Asik battling injuries and in flux.

The Pelicans took a good team on paper and finally translated it into a strong record and a playoff appearance. Anthony Davis is an absolute superstar and will be a fixture in the MVP race for years to come. Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Omer Asik, and Eric Gordon make up the rest of what could be a great starting five, but injuries always seem to be the issue here, and New Orleans has already had some health issues in the preseason. Ryan Anderson gives the Pelicans a very solid stretch four off the bench. Summer coaching hire Alvin Gentry, fresh off an assistant role with the champion Warriors, has spent over 25 years in the league and served as the head coach for four teams, so he is only new to New Orleans. All in all, the Pelicans have a good amount of upside tied in large part to health, and a reasonably stable floor thanks to Davis (assuming he can stay on the floor). They’ll probably end up right around where they did last season, but they could be dangerous. Playoff Odds: 50%

The Mavericks were on the short end of the DeAndre Jordan battle, and also lost Monta Ellis and Tyson Chandler. Wesley Matthews salvaged the offseason for the Mavericks, but he is something of a question mark coming off an Achilles tear. Deron Williams was practically free after the Nets bought him out, but he can no longer be counted on as a top-flight point guard. Dirk Nowitzki is definitely in decline, but he is still very solid. Chandler Parsons has emerged as a very, very good player, albeit not a star, and the Mavericks need to keep him healthy on what is certainly a brittle team. This team has enough to finish over 500, and could push 50 wins with some health and some luck, but things look a lot bleaker in Dallas than they did a year ago. This is a good team, but not a real contender. Playoff Odds: 50%

The Suns brought in Brandon Knight and shipped out Goran Dragic at the deadline last year, guaranteeing them several more years of having a good young point guard manning the backcourt with Eric Bledsoe. Tyson Chandler was brought aboard this summer to anchor the defense, and the sharpshooting Devin Booker was added in the NBA draft. Markieff Morris is unhappy that the Suns traded away his inferior twin Marcus, but he is a solid forward who will contribute if he can suck it up and play. Alex Len took some strides last season and could push Chandler at center. This is not a team with top-four upside in the West, but they could certainly contend for a playoff spot with their (mostly) youthful depth and balanced team. Playoff Odds: 40%

The Kings have a talented roster. DeMarcus Cousins is an elite center, Rajon Rondo is still a great playmaker even if he has declined, Rudy Gay is a very good scorer, Willie Cauley-Stein should be a defensive terror, and the Kings added solid role players in Kosta Koufos and Marco Belinelli during free agency. Ben McLemore started to make good on his draft-day upside last season, and Quincy Acy has, if nothing else, one of the highest motors in the league. This team could very well push 40 or 45 wins and finally become relevant once again in the West under renowned coach George Karl. But the implosion factor is high. Very, very high. Rondo and Cousins are mercurial to say the least, and if they clash with Karl (and/or each other), things should get ugly (and funny) in Sacramento. Playoff Odds: 40%

The Jazz are all about young upside, which is why it’s a shame that Dante Exum tore his ACL this summer. But Trey Lyles, Trey Burke, Alec Burks, Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, Rodney Hood, and Rudy Gobert will make this a very fun team to watch, regardless of how they do in the standings. And they should fare pretty well, even if they won’t be contenders in the vicious west. The floor is probably around 30 wins, but they could crack 40 if some of the young guys make major strides. Playoff Odds: 20%

How many years do the Lakers have to keep struggling before it stops feeling weird to see them all the way down here? Kobe Bryant is on his last legs, the Lakers mostly struck out in free agency, the Clippers are running the city, and the fans are getting tired of hearing about all the superstars allegedly banging down the door to don the purple and gold. If Kobe is healthy, he gives the Lakers a palatable floor— it’s hard to imagine them being as bad as last season. Lou Williams is a dynamic player, although one who should not start, and Roy Hibbert can, if nothing else, anchor a defense. Nick Young is the wild card to end all wild cards, but he can put the ball in the hoop, and the Lakers should get solid contributions in year one from Julius Randle (who broke his leg nine minutes into the 2014-15 season) and D’Angelo Russell. This won’t be a good team, but they won’t be a laughingstock, and Kobe will still have his nights. Oh, and Metta World Peace made the roster, so check out this interview I did with him last year. Playoff Odds: 30%

The Wolves cut Anthony Bennett and still have enough high draft picks to populate a small nation, including the last two #1 overall picks in Karl-Anthony Towns and reigning Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins. Ricky Rubio is a magician with the ball, and Zach LaVine is a wizard in the air. Shabazz Muhammad and Gorgui Dieng are also incredibly fun to watch, and veteran Kevin Martin will pack a solid scoring punch to compliment the youngsters. Kevin Garnett, Andre Miller, and Tayshaun Prince bring their infinite wisdom to the table, and Nikola Pekovic should arrive mid-season to give Minnesota a bruiser down low. The Wolves may have been the worst team in the NBA this season, but should claw their way back to relative respectability this time around, and it won’t be long before they’re one of the scariest teams in the NBA.

Sam Mitchell could prove to be an able coach, but the entire NBA family would rather he had never been pressed into duty— The Timberwolves will play this season with heavy hearts after head coach Flip Saunders lost his battle with cancer in October. Playoff Odds: 25%

The Nuggets were forced to unload their best player this summer, as Ty Lawson simply couldn’t get his act together in Denver. Emmanuel Mudiay will step in as the franchise point guard, but it might be rough sailing for Denver for a year or two. Kenneth Faried possesses unbelievable energy and a very solid skill-set to boot, and Danilo Gallinari could be a star if only he could stay on the court— if nothing else, he’ll be a strong supporting player if the Nuggets can find their main guy. Jusuf Nurkic should return fairly early from his knee injury, giving the Nuggets one of the most promising, interesting centers in the NBA. Wilson Chandler can score effectively in a complimentary role, and there must be some reason LeBron James always wanted Mike Miller around. This Nuggets team might have some big nights. But the stability isn’t there and the medical question marks are too many to count. It’s hard to see the 2015-16 Nuggets being more than a footnote in the West. Playoff Odds: 20%

Notable injuries: Henderson out until at least mid-November. Aminu Day-to-Day.

The Trail Blazers got absolutely ransacked this summer. Pillaged. Plundered. LaMarcus Aldridge is gone. Robin Lopez is gone. Arron Afflalo is gone. Wes Matthews is gone. Nicholas Batum is gone (traded for Gerald Henderson, who promptly finds himself on the injury report). Damian Lillard is a stud, and he’ll do enough to keep the team from being an absolute embarrassment, but there isn’t anything remotely resembling a supporting cast around him. Mason Plumlee was a great get from Brooklyn, but he can’t be a team’s second-best player unless their leading guy is LeBron’s Older Brother from Outer Space. Al-Farouq Aminu is decent, but he’ll mostly be remembered for signing a $30 Million deal that signaled the era of the New Salary Cap, in which the governing philosophy is to “Pay guys because we can.” Portland was, without a doubt, the biggest loser this summer, and it’s going to be a long, long six months in Rip City. Playoff Odds: 15%

PLAYOFFS

Eastern Conference Quarter Finals

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs #8 New York Knicks

The Knicks usually play well against LeBron’s teams. That might matter in a one-game playoff, but the Knicks aren’t ready to beat an elite team in a best-of-seven series. Cavaliers in 5

#2 Miami Heat vs #7 Washington Wizards

The Wizards have a star, but no depths. The Heat have stars, and depth. And home-field advantage. And more veterans who have been there before. And are better on both sides of the ball. Yeah. Heat in 5

#3 Chicago Bulls vs #6 Milwaukee Bucks

This rivalry is getting good. It’s going to be getting better. And the Bucks will be better by the end of the year than at the start, whereas the Bulls might be wearing down. Not just yet, though. Bulls in 7

#4 Atlanta Hawks vs #5 Toronto Raptors

The 4/5 matchup is usually something of a push. This should be no exception. The Hawks have more playoff experience and are less reliant on any given player or pair of players. That gives them the edge in a short series, but it’ll be close. Hawks in 7.

Western Conference Quarterfinals

#1 Golden State Warriors vs #8 Dallas Mavericks.

Hard to see the Mavericks posing much of a threat, if they can even take a game against the machine that is Golden State. It’s hard to sweep a series, though. Warriors in 5

#2 Houston Rockets vs #7 New Orleans Pelicans

Anthony Davis will be the best player on the floor. But he’s not a dangerous enough scorer to do it all by himself, and Harden has a much better supporting cast. An upset is unlikely here. Rockets in 5

#3 San Antonio Spurs vs #6 Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are no pushover, but they’re a much easier matchup than the Spurs had to face in the first round last year. Expect another tough series between the two teams, but with the Spurs’ new young core, I’m not as worried about their potentially being worn down. Spurs in 6

#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #5 Los Angeles Clippers

This will be the best series of the first round. If the Thunder are healthy, their big 2 puts LA’s to shame. The Clippers are deeper, but not by too much. Expect a ton of points in this series from both sides, but give OKC the edge, especially with Home-Field Advantage and one of the best crowds in the NBA. Thunder in 7

Eastern Conference Semifinals

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs #4 Atlanta Hawks

Unless the Cavaliers are severely shorthanded for the second year in a row, it’s hard to see the Hawks taking them down, especially when the Hawks didn’t stand in their way during Atlanta’s 60-win campaign. Cavaliers in 5.

#2 Miami Heat vs #3 Chicago Bulls

This one should be good. But I think it takes a team with more (healthy) star power than Chicago to take down Miami’s depth. The Heat won’t run into a team like that, at least not for one more round. Heat in 7.

Western Conference Semifinals

#1 Golden State Warriors vs #4 Oklahoma City Thunder

I’m really high on the Thunder. But the Warriors have better defense, a better bench, and a better system that won’t see their stars needing to chuck up shots down the stretch. Not many teams can beat OKC. This is one of them. Warriors in 6

#2 Houston Rockets vs #3 San Antonio Spurs

If any team has the perimeter defenders to slow down James Harden, it’s the Spurs. Defensively, San Antonio will expose Harden and pile on the points, pulling off what is only an upset in terms of seeding. Spurs in 6

Eastern Conference Finals

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs #2 Miami Heat

LeBron vs Miami with a trip to the Finals on the line. Can you imagine? Expect LeBron, Wade and Bosh to all bring their best. But if that happens, it’s advantage, LeBron, especially if he’s flanked by Irving and Love. The forecast calls for yet another trip to the Finals for the best player alive. Cavaliers in 6

Western Conference Finals

#1 Golden State Warriors vs #3 San Antonio Spurs

The two most recent champions will face off here with a spot in the Finals hanging in the balance. The Splash Brothers will leave their mark, but if the Spurs can guard the perimeter, Golden State won’t have the inside scoring to keep up with the Old Big Three and the new combo of Leonard, Aldridge and Green. Tim Duncan will earn himself a shot at one last ring. Spurs in 7

NBA Finals

#1E Cleveland Cavaliers vs #3W San Antonio Spurs

Cleveland got to the Finals in the first year of the LeBron-Irving-Love era, but the latter two were absent for the big show. Not this time. The King won’t have to do it all himself here, but he’ll do an awful lot of it en route to his third ring and the first championship in Cavaliers history. Cavaliers in 6

NBA Champions: Cleveland Cavaliers

AWARDS & ACCOLADES

LEADERS:

Scoring: Carmelo Anthony, NYK— Homer pick, but show me a better combination of scoring ability and market share in his team’s offense. You can’t. Melo might be putting up 25+ shots a night, unless the Knicks really embrace the Triangle. Durant or Westbrook could end up here, but each likely holds the other back a bit in terms of per-game totals.

Assists: Chris Paul, LAC— Don’t really need to justify this one too much. The game’s best pure point guard has to be the favorite here.

Rebounds: Andre Drummond, DET— Not much of a reach to start, and with Greg Monroe gone, Andre, alone at the table, should eat on the glass.

Steals: Russell Westbrook, OKC— always a bit of a hard start to predict, but Westbrook showed his chops last season and can focus more on defense with Durant back to shoulder the scoring load. CP3 could end up here as well.

Threes Made: Stephen Curry, GSW— Well, because, yeah.

Three Point Percentage: Kyle Korver, ATL— If he was going to start missing, he would have done it years ago.

AWARDS

Most Valuable Player: LeBron James, CLE— the best player in the world (Still, Mr. Davis) has to be the favorite here, especially given a chance to shoulder more of the load in the absences of Irving.

Rookie of the Year: Emmanuel Mudiay, DEN— He’ll be given the keys to the offense right off the bat, and he has professional experience after a year in China. If he stays on the court, he has a great shot to win it, although his team won’t win many games.

Sixth Man of the Year: Corey Brewer, HOU— Remember when the Knicks got this guy in the Melo trade but then cut him right away? Not their best move. The Rockets have a stacked starting lineup, but Brewer’s elite 3-and-D skill-set will lead their efforts when the subs come in.

Coach of the Year: Alvin Gentry, NOLA— This is the worst award in sports. The best coach doesn’t really change from year to year. And look at how many COTYs get fired soon afterwards. But Gentry has a solid reputation as a coach, and the Pelicans COULD take a leap this year, so, as I always say with this award… why the heck not?

Most Improved Plyaer: Jonas Valanciunas, TOR— Another “why not” award, but Valanciunas was supposed to take three or four years to really arrive, and it’s his fourth year, and he’s already been pretty darn good. He could make “the leap” this season, which would be huge for Toronto.

Defensive Player of the Year: Jimmy Butler, CHI— Perimeter players have been getting some love in Defensive Worship Circles, and it’s Butler’s turn, as he establishes himself as an elite defender and player, and the true star of the Chicago Bulls (sorry, Derrick).

All-NBA First Team:

Stephen Curry: Hard to leave the reigning MVP off the list.

Chris Paul: He’s not slowing down, and the guys around him are just getting better.

LeBron James: Best. Player. Alive.

Anthony Davis: Best. Player. Alive. (In my 2018-19 preview)

Marc Gasol: Not getting a shot at guy was a tragedy for the Knicks. He’ll show why now that he’s been paid. The versatile anchor of a tough Memphis team on both ends.

All-NBA Second Team:

Russell Westbrook: Having Durant back should hurt his per-game totals, but will help him be more effective. Has emerged as a true superstar.

Jimmy Butler: Makes the leap this year to true superstardom. Could make the 1st team over Paul.

Kevin Durant: Again, he and Westbrook limit each other statistically, but having both makes the Thunder an elite team. If he stays on the floor, no reason he won’t turn in another spectacular campaign.

Carmelo Anthony: Like Durant, all he needs is health to be one of the elite players in the league. And unlike Durant, his team will completely rely on him (but for that reason, the defenses can key in).

DeMarcus Cousins: No reason he can’t be here based on ability. He’ll make an All-NBA team unless his brain gets in the way.

All-NBA Third Team:

Damian Lillard: Will put up gaudier stats now that he’s 99% of the Portland offense.

James Harden: Overrated in my book, but will put up very high scoring totals and a misleadingly high number of steals.

Chris Bosh: Back from a major health scare, he’ll now get to be “the guy” in his first full year post-LeBron. This team is deep, but Bosh should still stand out.

LaMarcus Aldridge: He’s good enough to be here or better, so he’ll get this honor if the Spurs’ maniacally team-oriented style of play doesn’t limit his stats too much.

John Wall: Elite speed and improving instincts could be enough to earn him a spot on the list for the second straight year. If not, I’ll take Westbrook.

Tony Allen: The most skilled perimeter defender alive.

LeBron James: Can guard all 8 positions. 3 of which he practically invented.

Anthony Davis: Freak of nature is disruptive all over the court.

Marc Gasol: Not uber-athletic like Jordan, but has the skills to hold down the interior.

All-Rookie First Team:

Emmanuel Mudiay: Not leaving the ROY off the first team.

DeAngelo Russell: Kobe will take a lot of the shots, but Russell will still get a huge opportunity right off the bat. Defense needs work, but should be an immediate impact player offensively.

Justise Winslow: Top-notch defender and athlete (albeit a bit undersized) who will emerge as a star if he can establish a consistent jumper.

Kristaps Porzingis: The Knicks will thrust him into the fire, if for no other reason than trying to validate last year’s disastrous campaign. Porzingis is incredibly unique and has all the makings of a future star. He won’t get there this year, but he should be one of the top two in a draft class that is weak at forward.

Jahlil Okafor: He will be the go-to guy on offense from the start in Philly.

All-Rookie Second Team:

Mario Hezonja: Beautiful shot, exciting style of play will make him a quick riser in this league. Might have to fight for major minutes, though.

Jerian Grant: The Knicks have a knack for getting guys on these teams, if nothing else. Elite court awareness and great athleticism should win him the starting job before long.

Stanley Johnson: Johnson can do nearly everything, so don’t expect him to fly completely under the radar in Year One, even if he left the NCAA a year or two early.

Myles Turner: Had a late growth spurt, much like Anthony Davis. Has a bit of each of the five positions in his game, and could unseat Porzingis or Winslow on the first team.

Karl-Anthony Towns: Might finish in the top three in ROY voting. Especially if he gets a chance to show off his pretty solid jumper.

Well, that’s it for this year’s NBA preview! Let the games begin! -Tommy Rothman

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About Tommy Rothman

Owner and Founder of the largest Knicks Fan Page on Facebook, New York Knicks Memes.
Writer at the largest independent Mets site on the web, MetsMerizedOnline.com
Sophomore at the University of Pennsylvania.
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Twitter: @KnicksMemes

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