What to expect when you’re expecting Sony to announce the PlayStation 4

Which questions will Sony answer at tonight's big reveal?

Are you ready for the next-generation video game console wars to heat up? Sony is all set to unveil the long-rumored follow-up to the PlayStation 3 today starting at 6pm Eastern, and we'll be there liveblogging and covering it from all angles, of course. Before things get going, though, we thought it would be worthwhile to look at what the rumor mill has been saying about Sony's next system, and we'll offer some analysis of what's likely to be revealed today—and what's likely to stay secret for a little while longer.

Price and release date

Price and release date are the biggest unknowns, and they're least likely to be discussed publicly today. Sony didn't reveal the details of the PlayStation 3's launch until the May 2006 E3 show. The Xbox 360 wasn't priced until August 2005, and the international release dates weren't confirmed until that September. The release date and price for the Wii and Wii U were both closely guarded secrets until press events less than two months before their November releases. February is just too early to expect confirmation.

So we're left with rumors. The system is widely expected to be available worldwide this holiday season, but Edge is reporting that distribution concerns might push that back to early 2014 for Europe. Price is hard to gauge without knowing just what kind of hardware the system will be packing, but it's a pretty safe bet that Sony will do what it can to avoid the "FIVE HUNDRED AND NINETY NINE US DOLLARS"-style mockery it received last time around.

Hardware specs

This is another area we shouldn't expect too much in the way of details today. Console makers tend to play this information close to the vest in public, prerelease roll-outs, partially to let the games speak for themselves and partially to avoid using technical jargon that many laymen will misinterpret anyway. We might not get confirmation on the precise hardware configuration until the system is actually in our hands.

That said, various reports based on development hardware and anonymous insider sources all seem to be converging on the same basic set of facts: an eight-core, x86-based CPU running at 1.6Ghz, an AMD "Southern Islands" level GPU, and 4GB of RAM. Whatever it is, the hardware is supposed to be powerful enough to run games at 4K resolutions, or full 1080p games in stereoscopic 3D (the PS3 is limited to 720p 3D).

Sony is also widely expected to introduce a new, more advanced PlayStation Eye with its next system, possibly integrating Kinect-style 3D body tracking to match Microsoft. It's hard to say if this will be an integrated/packed-in bit of hardware or just an optional accessory, but we're leaning toward the latter.

Controller

Now that multiple leaked pictures have removed most of the mystery surrounding Sony's supposed redesigned controller, it would be a bit silly for Sony to continue playing coy and not simply publicly unveil the "DualShock 4" today. Expect talk of the touchpad, motion-tracking light, built-in speaker, and redesigned thumbsticks, but also expect one or two surprises that weren't revealed in the leaks. Also, don't expect that the final, consumer controller will look exactly like the development prototypes. Anyone remember the PS3 boomerang controller?

Software

This should be the focus of any big console unveiling, and it probably will be today. It seems pretty likely that we'll see a few new games from Sony's internal studios announced for the PS4 today (even if they aren't shown as anything more than a logo). New Uncharted and God of War games seem like immensely safe bets, as well as a new Gran Turismo that uses the PS4's power for ever more detailed and realistic car porn (hopefully this one won't take forever to actually be released). A new shooter to continue the Killzone or Resistance franchises also seems pretty likely, even though neither of those exclusives carry as much weight as they used to. A new Singstar game will be a huge draw for European audiences as well.

Sony will also probably trot out a few selected third parties to talk up the power and promise of the PS4, but predicting just which ones is a little harder. Big names like Electronic Arts and Ubisoft have been frequent guests at previous PlayStation press events, and both likely have next-generation games they've been itching to show off on new hardware (such as Watch Dogs, perhaps?) I wouldn't be shocked if some engine makers are on hand to show off their next-gen tech as well; Konami's Hideo Kojima is set to present his "photo-realistic" Fox Engine at March's Game Developer's Conference, but today's event could be a good preview for that. And what of Singularity, the game that's seemingly behind the singularityps4.com domain name Sony recently registered? Will it be the next game from David Cage's Quantic Dream?

Don't forget dark-horse game predictions. If Sony really wants to make an impression, it will announce that the oft-delayed The Last Guardian has been moved to the new system and will be available at or near release. Personally, I'm hoping for a new Crash Bandicoot game to launch the PS4. It's just about time for the eight-year-olds that grew up with those titles to be nostalgic, right?

Streaming

Sony has been extremely tight-lipped about its plans for cloud-gaming service Gaikai, for which it paid $380 million last year, but we can probably expect that silence to end today. Gaikai recently registered Web domains for ps-cloud and PlayStation-Cloud websites, and the Wall Street Journal recently reported that streaming technology would play a key role in the new system, so make sure your Internet connection is up to the challenge.

One obvious use for the Gaikai service would be as an extension of PlayStation Plus that lets players stream a wide selection of classics from previous PlayStation systems, without the need for a lengthy download or emulation. This would help solve what many see as a problem with traditional backwards compatibility on the next PlayStation, thanks to its rumored x86 chipset. There's an outside chance we could see some sort of Netflix-style subscription service to get all-you-can-eat PS4 games, but an à la carte model for these titles seems more likely.

Used game blocking

Technology to block the play of secondhand games seems to be the hot rumor surrounding the next generation of systems, and it will likely remain so after today. Even if Sony is planning to put up some sort of wall to block the used-game market, it's not the kind of thing it would trumpet from the rafters so far from launch, given the seemingly inevitable consumer backlash.

But will Sony actually do it? Well, the company patented a method for blocking secondhand game sales without an Internet connection, but that doesn't really prove anything other than "we're thinking about it." There's some hearsay about SCEA President Jack Tretton saying Sony was "totally opposed" to blocking used games, and most industry watchers seem to agree that Sony won't pull the trigger. Still, there are a few that seem just as sure that the company is determined to finally kill off the GameStop business model.

The name

Even though we've been casually calling this system the "PlayStation 4" in our coverage for a while now, Sony has never actually officially acknowledged that product name. After naming the past three PlayStation's sequentially, jumping off the bandwagon for number four would be a little unexpected. Then again, the Vita could have easily been the "PlayStation Portable 2" and... it wasn't. The codename Orbis does have a nice ring to it...

And the rest...

I'd be surprised if the press is allowed hands-on time with the in-development demos at this early date. More likely, we'll get a lot of video footage and a chance to look at a proposed shell for the system and the controller behind glass.

The presentation is scheduled to last two hours, which leaves plenty of time for unexpected bloopers. Internet remixers will be keeping a keen eye out for this year's "Giant Enemy Crab."

I expect that the PS4 is revealed to be a featureless black monolith black monolith that will lead humanity to a new plane of consciousness. Further, those weren't bones the monkey was holding, they were Wii Motion Plus controllers and that whole movie is a commentary on hardware incompatibility.

This is another area we shouldn't expect too much in the way of details today. Console makers tend to play this information close to the vest in public, prerelease roll-outs, partially to let the games speak for themselves

Wait what? Every Sony announcement I've seen the have a pressgasm over their new fancy game engine.

I'm cautiously optimistic about this. I would happily preorder an upgrade to my PS3 today, as long as they don't do something absurd like try to block used games. An attempt to block used games would make me hesitant at the very least.

This is another area we shouldn't expect too much in the way of details today. Console makers tend to play this information close to the vest in public, prerelease roll-outs, partially to let the games speak for themselves

Wait what? Every Sony announcement I've seen the have a pressgasm over their new fancy game engine.

A game engine is different from internal hardware specs. I'm finding it hard to recall the last time an executive got up on stage and said "our console runs at 1.6 Ghz"

Really curious how they plan to do 1080P stereoscopic 3D. Right now you can't via PC to TVs unless you bump down the framerate to like 24hz per eye at 1080P because of bandwidth limitations on HDMI 1.4. You can get around it if your TV has DP or dual link DVI, but i'm running into the issue right now on my TV where I can't do full 1080P 3D at 60FPS due to it. This seems to be a pretty major issue in the console space where connections are expected over HDMI.(not limited to Sony here, seems to be a generic problem)

Iv already been using better than ps 4 graphics in my pc for the past god knows how long, 2006 at least when Crysis came out. So for them to get me to actually care about it they will have to do something really special, mostly games that will be exclusive. But that is the problem, i dont know of any exclusive games that i have wanted to play.

I will admit one weakness though, and that is a new Mega Man X game, since one never even came out for the PS3, so im still waiting for a HD version of that series to be made, if ever. I think thats the only way i would consider it.

This is another area we shouldn't expect too much in the way of details today. Console makers tend to play this information close to the vest in public, prerelease roll-outs, partially to let the games speak for themselves

Wait what? Every Sony announcement I've seen the have a pressgasm over their new fancy game engine.

A game engine is different from internal hardware specs. I'm finding it hard to recall the last time an executive got up on stage and said "our console runs at 1.6 Ghz"

An article to speculate about what might be official a few hours later, really?

Hey, if Ars does it for Apple, why not ZoidbergSony?

I hope there is some kind of compatibility for old peripherals. Not expecting much... I hope there are no pie-in-the-sky promises that turn out to be embarrassingly vapour (but Kazuo is gone, so there's hope).

I don't know what to hope for. I still have a lot of PS3 titles to get through, so I'm really not too keen on buying a new system. The best thing would be a price drop of the PS3 (to replace my dead unit), but that's not gonna happen today.

A year ago, I could never have imagined being excited over this. I've had a PS3 since launch, and it's always been cool, but I preferred my 360.

Over the last year, I started playing my PS3 more and got a Vita - now I'm a total sucker for Sony. I have no clue how this is - I was FURIOUS after the PSN hack (and ten days after they announced it, someone opened an account under my name... I totally blame Sony, lol).

I'm cautiously optimistic about this. I would happily preorder an upgrade to my PS3 today, as long as they don't do something absurd like try to block used games. An attempt to block used games would make me hesitant at the very least.

The talk about blocking used (a.k.a. borrowed, rented, traded, etc.) games makes me VERY hesitant to jump in to the next generation. I will definitely not be buying any console on launch day, but waiting for the other early adopters to figure out what works and what doesn't first.

If Sony or Microsoft wanted to drum up preorders on their respective consoles, they could come out and say "we will not block used games" and I will put my money down right now.

I actually do not have a problem with blocking used games. I think the GameStop model exploits users by paying so little for the used games. I have never sold them one because of this. Without used games GameStop will need to change its business model. If you want to save a few dollars on a game wait a few weeks and get it when the price comes down.

This is another area we shouldn't expect too much in the way of details today. Console makers tend to play this information close to the vest in public, prerelease roll-outs, partially to let the games speak for themselves

Wait what? Every Sony announcement I've seen the have a pressgasm over their new fancy game engine.

A game engine is different from internal hardware specs. I'm finding it hard to recall the last time an executive got up on stage and said "our console runs at 1.6 Ghz"

As someone else noted, the last time that happened was the PS3 launch. According to Kotaku, they did it for the PS2 and original Playstation launches as well. At this point, it would be a surprise if they didn't announce the specs.

If you want to save a few dollars on a game wait a few weeks and get it when the price comes down.

Why would prices EVER come down if there is not a used market undercutting the price of a new game?

Ask Valve. They seem to have the answer with both prices dropping fast after launch and incredible sales events a couple of times a year. Plus all the other sales both them and Amazon have throughout the year.

This is another area we shouldn't expect too much in the way of details today. Console makers tend to play this information close to the vest in public, prerelease roll-outs, partially to let the games speak for themselves

Wait what? Every Sony announcement I've seen the have a pressgasm over their new fancy game engine.

A game engine is different from internal hardware specs. I'm finding it hard to recall the last time an executive got up on stage and said "our console runs at 1.6 Ghz"

Well given that MOST present day gamers are tech savvy it wouldn't be crazy for them the boast about their hardware specs now.

I expect that the PS4 is revealed to be a featureless black monolith black monolith that will lead humanity to a new plane of consciousness. Further, those weren't bones the monkey was holding, they were Wii Motion Plus controllers and that whole movie is a commentary on hardware incompatibility.

Streaming over backwards compatibility ignores something crucial... the investment in existing game libraries.

Repurchasing titles just so I can run them on the current black box is unappealing - and chiefly what keeps Nintendo's VC from becoming what it could have been. And let's not even talk about how Sony progressively backed away from B/C with each new system update.

Many long-term gamers' households are starting to look like multi-generational graveyards, with old consoles littered about. I don't think Sony will realize how they could use this to their advantage, but the first next gen console to figure this out might just have something. It is this 21st century, after all.

So let's propose something interesting. The first next gen console to offer the option to transfer your *existing physical library* to a virtual one... at either no cost or trivial cost wins. If you can replace a pile of 3 consoles with one console, still play your old games (without repurchase) and play new ones then that would truly be compelling.

If you want to save a few dollars on a game wait a few weeks and get it when the price comes down.

Why would prices EVER come down if there is not a used market undercutting the price of a new game?

It's first degree price discrimination.

You sell a game at a high price for long enough that most potential buyers willing to pay that price buy it, then you drop the price to capture the people who value it slightly lower, repeat until profit margin is no longer significant.

The used game market drives prices up significantly, not down. It cannibalizes the market for price discrimination (making prices fall slower) and also adds resale value to games, which drives up the price consumers are willing to pay (as they can recover some of that value when they're done with the game).

Step 1: Say nothing about used game salesStep 2: Sell consoleStep 3: Force users to accept new T&C with OS update that activates chips to block used games.

You know, I used to be WAY less cynical about console launches.

I couldn't agree more. They just need to hide it in legalese (again) that they can make any change to the system at any time for any reason. Once they have an install-base, they can release an "update" that kills the feature. They could even claim you don't need to update if you want to keep the feature while failing to mention any game released from there on out, or the desire to access the market, will force you to update.

4k for gaming is not happening yet. The move from 1080 to 4k is not 2x the pixels, but instead 4x. Pushing that many pixels while maintaining other graphical flourishes (shaders high res textures etc..) is not going to happen with current single slot equivalent vid card.

When the 360 and ps3 launched 720-1080p tv's actually existed in consumers hands. This time around 4k may as well not even exist since both the TV's are very rare, and even fewer things can push that many pixels to the screen.

Streaming over backwards compatibility ignores something crucial... the investment in existing game libraries.

Repurchasing titles just so I can run them on the current black box is unappealing - and chiefly what keeps Nintendo's VC from becoming what it could have been. And let's not even talk about how Sony progressively backed away from B/C with each new system update.

Many long-term gamers' households are starting to look like multi-generational graveyards, with old consoles littered about. I don't think Sony will realize how they could use this to their advantage, but the first next gen console to figure this out might just have something. It is this 21st century, after all.

So let's propose something interesting. The first next gen console to offer the option to transfer your *existing physical library* to a virtual one... at either no cost or trivial cost wins. If you can replace a pile of 3 consoles with one console, still play your old games (without repurchase) and play new ones then that would truly be compelling.

Oh well, prepare for dissapointment.

Two things:

First, Sony "progressively backed away from B/C with each new system update" because the licensing for the emotion chip to ensure that compatibility was rather expensive. To cut the production cost of the system down to a level where they could offer a price drop (and therefore capture more of the market) they had to chop it. It wasn't some sort of evil systemic plot to steal their customers' money.

Second, at the moment there's no reason that Sony couldn't implement a system that allows a PS4 to read a PS3, PS2, or PS1 disk, determine it's there, and allow streaming of that game while the disk is in the system. That would provide backwards compatibility while retaining the value of existing game libraries, and wouldn't require increasing production costs in the manner that doomed PS2 compatibility in the PS3.

I wouldn't necessarily expect that to be what they're doing, but it's certainly plausible enough at this point where you can't claim they're making existing collections useless.

If you want to save a few dollars on a game wait a few weeks and get it when the price comes down.

Why would prices EVER come down if there is not a used market undercutting the price of a new game?

It's first degree price discrimination.

You sell a game at a high price for long enough that most potential buyers willing to pay that price buy it, then you drop the price to capture the people who value it slightly lower, repeat until profit margin is no longer significant.

The used game market drives prices up significantly, not down. It cannibalizes the market for price discrimination (making prices fall slower) and also adds resale value to games, which drives up the price consumers are willing to pay (as they can recover some of that value when they're done with the game).

This is precisely what happens today. What's even worse is that the consumer actually pays more and the game developers make less.

Kyle Orland / Kyle is the Senior Gaming Editor at Ars Technica, specializing in video game hardware and software. He has journalism and computer science degrees from University of Maryland. He is based in Pittsburgh, PA.