That auction took place yesterday. Today, the results are posted. First, let’s investigate some asking prices.

Basically, Back to Normal

Several houses up for sale this weekend required major renovations were selling for around $1.7m.

Real Estate Institute of NSW president John Cunningham said buyers could compete for homes this weekend with the pressure easing.

Properties with features buyers tend not to like – like being south-facing, on a busy road or having lots of steps – are taking longer to sell and at lower prices,” Mr. Cunningham said.

While these houses are still not cheap, they have major potential.

“This is basically the market just returning to normal.”

Auction Results

The Auction results are in, by region. The article pertained to Sydney and those results are in the NSW region.

I did not track down all the listings in the article.

However, I am pleased to report the 14 Abbots for Road property was sold at auction for the bargain price of $2,320,000.

Let’s see what $2,320,000 buys.

The article describes this fine property.

This crumbling Federation- style house at 14 Abbotsford Street, Homebush comes at a hefty bidder’s guide of $2.1m and plenty of caved-in ceilings. The four-bedroom property is riddled with cracks and parts of the ceiling indicate major leaks in the roof. Selling agent Ben Horwood of LJ Hooker at Concord said he expected three buyers to register bids. This compares with the market a year ago when houses in similar condition were attracting up to ten bidders.

The home went for only $120,000 over the asking price with three people in the bidding war instead of a presumed 10 who may have bid last year.

Yes indeed. Normality has returned to Australia. This all looks very “normal” to me.

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Chinese Cash is forbidden to buy used properties in Australia.
Foreign buyers must buy new or off the plan. They are also subject to a Foreign Investment Review Board.
Many overseas buyers have had their plans slightly thwarted as the main banks no longer allow foreign investment loans. These loans have been taken up by the Australian Shadow banking companies which were not subject to government oversight. This has changed in the last day or so.

Having said that. There is rumored to be an industry consisting of proxy buyers who buy old properties, then knock down any structure on it, get planning approval to develop a new building/apartment block and them sell the planning approval to overseas buyers who were supporting the proxy in the first place.

seasonal rentals there beat the pants off FL and AZ rentals and better beach weather and beer, flight is brutal but just pop a few ambiens and do it! Let the owners of these aussie mcmansions subsidize your fun in the sun.

True. But Australian and Canadian banks are some of the safest in the world. One of the reasons for this is that mortgages in both countries are full recourse. This means that people cannot walk away from their house without the bank going after their other assets. I believe that a couple of American states have full recourse rules as well.

Then, add in that the banks require a minimum 5% down payment. Plus all mortgages require mortgage insurance if you don’t have at least a 20% downpayment. Bank mortgage delinquencies in Australia are just over 1% and much less than 1% in Canada.

So prices may be high in both countries, but historically, housing bubbles in both countries tend to deflate slowly, rather than burst.

Spain has full recourse also, plus delinquency was low, did not stop the bust. I imagine OZ is better managed, has own currency, and more stable policy. Insurance only has so much use, provides confidence, but it could also makes a bust more systemic.

Full recourse means little when the buyer is likely foreign and hidden behind various corporate/trust shields. Eventually, it is the property, and in the case of this post, the land, that is standing behind the loan. Every bubble country had banks that looked well-managed until the feces hit the fan, and then the rot was apparent for all to see — inflated appraisals, liar loans, etc. The longer this goes on, the harder the fall will be.

If you search say ” australian property bubble set to burst 2017″ you’ll find arguments from opposing views in the first page.

The chart below just underlines how much money supply is tied to mortgage creation … if/when borrowing reaches limit then the whole economy will deflate… this is usually the feedback loop that busts the market, but there are others.

Realist. Sorry buddy, but of all the posters here, you hands down win the prize for speaking the most nonsense.

Exhibit A: To say that most foreign buyers of property in Australia are ‘cash buyers’ is BS of the highest order. The press here has been full of discussion over the last 6 months over how the banks are clamping down on loans to foreign buyers as they represent a much higher risk.

Exhibit B: “loans are full recourse” so all is well. Lol. Loans are full recourse in the UK as well but it didn’t stop a property crash in the early 1990’s which wiped a lot of people out. Those that hung on took almost 10yrs to get back to positive equity.

Exhibit C: Australian banks are among the safest in the world. Lol. With over 60% of their balance sheets exposed to the biggest property bubble in the world (much of it investment property loans). Oh yes, very safe!

Australian Banks, when you scratch the surface are the riskiest banks in the world, by a mile. More than 65% of the asset side of the ledger is exposed to residential mortgages, the highest percentage in the world. Combine with Australia’s stratospheric household debt levels and we have a bust of epic proportions in the making.

Full recourse loans will be the icing on the top and will ensure people who are over leveraged are scarred for the rest of their life.

Further proof, comments on this blog arguing all is AOK in Australia, no bust here move along please,

Australian Banks have gone bankrupt before and have been nationalized. Turn of the twentieth century.
I suspect if the bubble has a sharp downturn and the banks look risky, the government will backstop them or nationalize to prevent the economy completely collapsing.

Back in the blog’s home country, the warmonger John McCain is getting special health care for himself: no deductible, no waiting, no having to choose from cheap young less experienced doctors. McCain is getting first rate surgery paid 100% by taxpayers who cannot get the same care even after paying insurance scams and deductibles.

Then this selfish loser is going to vote on Obamacare 2.0 — forcing his constituents into a crappy system that isn’t good enough for Congress.

I’ve heard the stories that McCain supposedly refused special treatment in Hanoi Hilton, but those stories are obviously political bullsh!t. Here McCain is in the same position, getting special treatment that his constituents can’t get — and he isn’t batting an eye.

A loser that got shot down, captured, made up a story to make himself a hero when he was not — and now we see his true colors. The man is a coward who makes sure he gets treated better than his consituents

I’ve used VA for some of my healthcare and it’s been generally good, sometimes better than private sector.

Trump made a lot of comments about improving VA care when he was campaigning but half a year in and nothing has happened. The nation would be better served if he put down the twitter and worked full time, hired capable administrators instead of relatives and toadies.

I retired doctor in Sweden told me that in that standard bearing country for socialized medicine, their members of parliament gets shuffled to the front of the line in the country’s most prestigious hospital as well….. I’m sure the same holds true for Bernie Sanders.

The important thing to recognize, is that this is not some weird, outlying extraorirarity. Rather, this is all that any possible government can and will ever do. If government gets to have a say, any say whatsoever, in how healthcare is apportioned, those in government will get preferential treatment. Then, their closest associates, along with, again according to the above (highly recognized…) Swedish doctor, friends and family of an ever growing cadre of workers at the hospitals/clinics themselves. Over time, this becomes what we are increasingly seeing today: Friends and family of professions, like doctors, hospital administrators etc., are the same as those who are connected to politicians. Their kids go to the same schools, they live in the same neighborhoods. De facto gated ones, as the ever growing security apparatuses are allowed into the same clique as well, in order to preserve their loyalty.

Just as there is no stable halfway point between freedom and slavery, nor completely free, unregulated markets and totalitarian planned ones; neither is there some stable point where “all men created equal” can be kind of relaxed. As soon as someone is special, something is “too important” to be “left to the markets” or “too big too fail,” all you have is a society with a slave caste, and an ever smaller and more privileged caste of more-equals. With less and less productive effort going into anything other than engaging in petty court intrigue, aimed at inserting oneself into the latter group.

Hence the only proper, sustainable, fair, decent, humane, what have you, health care policy, is one of complete and utter neglect. The kind of Health care policy in place in what was to become the Wyoming territory, back when Jefferson was president. Ditto for tax policy, monetary policy, gun laws, zoning laws, and any other laws whatsoever. Just have none of them at all. And a population sufficiently armed to have an effective veto, should some slime ball try to change that.

yeah, according to that story, younger version of McCain refused special treatment, and insisted that the enlisted (non-officer) prisoners be properly treated…

Unless you were one of those prisoners, and one that was not halucinating from pain, etc — then you don’t know what happened. You are taking the word of some people who were not exactly in a position to dispute anything. And unless you have your head really far up your butt, then you know wikipedia didn’t exist at the time and the people who write that nonsense are, ahem, politically inclined.

According to the facts of today’s hospital case — hundreds of VA patients, themselves veterans, are still waiting for treatment. They came to the VA system BEFORE McCain. McCain was treated, the other vets are still waiting.

According to the facts as presented by Congress, they are exempt from Obamacare and its ravages. You the little people get overpriced insurance coverage, with a deductible that makes that coverage almost worthless — and you have to pay out of your paycheck (even if your employer pays it on your behalf, still comes out of your total compensation).

Congress gets a much better plan that covers everything, no deductible. And taxpayers pay for that too.

If McCain is such a great guy / war hero as you suggest… why does he skip to the front of the line here? Where is his compassion for other vets? Where is his compassion for taxpayers who get screwed by Obamacare? Veterans were promised health CARE, not empty promises and waiting lines. Taxpayers are forced to buy overpriced insurance, but we don’t actual care. Congress doesn’t pay anything, and they get actual health CARE.

McCain’s war record doesn’t square with his behavior today. And unlike the events in POW camp thousands of miles away (that cannot be verified), the events in Washington DC and Phoenix are both well documented.

You go ahead and tell all the vets waiting for VA care that they don’t matter, and you are stuck worshiping some election propaganda of what MIGHT have happened in Vietnam, but based on McCain today probably happened very different.

McCain put himself first and always. VA patients are still in limbo. Obamacare still isn’t repealed. And that selfish politician spent the entire first half of the year undermining his president with Russian boogeyman nonsense.

Pi314 is correct. These are tear-downs where land is dear. A friend’s brother has invested in only Manhattan and Honolulu starting in 1980 and says he won’t risk anywhere but the highest cost markets. I am not saying Australia isn’t in a housing bubble. Just that no mention of the desirability of the locations isn’t addressed and what the zoning is so it is impossible to evaluate. When needed, high rise apartments and office building will go even higher. Pack and stack.

It is like a vat of hand lotion. It is millions of dollars at retail with the lotion being sold in small 10 ounce portions. Put more people in the same space and the price of the space goes higher.

That is usually a reasonable assumption Professor, but not always, the PTB can be capricious. I once bought a old tear down house in between 2 apartment buildings thinking I could build a 6-flat on the lot, which would have been a smaller building than those on either side, and the same size lot. To my surprise and amazement, the City of Evanston IL refused to allow it.

Real Estate always seems “unaffordable”,,,,yet, someone is always “affording” it,,,hence the price. Must be what makes a market? One thing that is a safe bet is, long after the fiatskies it is priced in are gone, most RE will still be standing.

Australia is a wonderful country to live in. Wonderful people, lots of space, mostly good climate, good education and health care systems, solid economy. Houses are overpriced, partly due to high demand (some of it foreign) and low interest rates. I expect the bubble will deflate slowly, rather than burst.

I’m always surprised by those who always feel that the “sky is falling”.

“I’m always surprised by those who always feel that the “sky is falling”.”

Global debt to GDP is north of 300%. The sky isn’t always falling, but when it does…

Martin Armstrong uses the term crash and burn. Others use the term reset. That which can’t go on, won’t. It isn’t something to take lightly, regardless that it hasn’t happened, yet. The greater the excess, the greater the correction of the excess.

A lot of these dilapidated house will be renovated. This is wise because regulations as to FSR are stricter now, so there can be penalties for rebuilding. And many councils also have heritage provisions wanting the old look to be retained. This is sometimes pretty crazy. It’s not as if our heritage is actually old like in Europe.
Sydney prices often seem to top out, then they take off again. There is a population pressure on the housing stock and overseas buyers target Sydney, and Melbourne. It appears these cities have become hubs for the wealthy looking to congregate together, like in London, and Vancouver etc. Cities that have what these wealthy want to enjoy. Sydney as least has the best weather among these places! The housing stock is mediocre but overall it’s an attractive city.

Australia’s population growth, specially in Sydney and Melbourne due to seemingly unfettered immigration is one of the main causes of property price appreciation in the two main city’s here in the land downunder. The federal government appears to be unwilling to grasp the nettle to restrict immigration and coupled with a shortage of housing stock, prices have gone through the roof. According to the UBS report quoted below in the Sydney Morning Herald today prices will continue to slow but not crash.

This slowing in demand for housing in large part is down to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (“RBA”) jawboning that has convinced the “Big 4 Banks” here in Oz to restrict interest only loans and to raise interest rates that has dampened investor demand for housing as distinct from owner occupiers.

The RBA has effectively raised interest rates in Australia for loans from the the Big 4 Banks, ANZ, CBA, National & Westpac whilst maintaining the official “cash rate” at 1.5%.

Note that the RBA is the Australian “central” bank that guarantees the integrity of the Australian banking system and the aforementioned Big 4 Banks in particular that dominate the banking sector. Overseas banks have attempted to break in to the Australian banking market but have mostly failed, reduced to the roles of bit players. The fish that John West rejects.

Economists at investment bank UBS are increasingly confident a “correction” is taking place in residential construction, led by a slowdown in the apartment sector. But they argue house prices are set to grow more slowly, rather than drop, due to very low interest rates and growth in population.
Scott Haslem and George Tharenou cut their forecasts for dwelling commencements for this year and next in a report to clients last week, also arguing house price growth had been “unsustainable”.

Australian census property snapshot
A brief look at how property tenure has changed over the last 25 years.

After “calling the top” in housing activity in April, the economists said they had “increased confidence that a correction is unfolding” in building activity. They noted official figures that last week showed a 19% year-on-year slump in dwelling unit commencements in the March quarter.
This was the largest fall since the global financial crisis, they said, and building approvals had also fallen 20% in May, after a sharp fall in approvals for high-rise units.
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Housing activity has been a key driver of economic growth in recent years, but they argue this effect will wane this year and next, with annualised commencements to fall from about 202,000 to 195,000 next year and 188,000 in 2018.
Even so, they are not forecasting a fall in house prices, despite viewing recent growth rates as “unsustainable”.
The note argued the annual rate of house price growth would slow further from a capital city average of about 10% in the year to June, to 7% by the end of this year. In 2018, they are forecasting house price growth between zero and 3%.
“Under our base-case view of a ‘correction but not a collapse’, we see a ‘muddle-through’ outcome, which leaves the RBA holding the cash rate steady over the coming year,” the report said.

Residential construction fell in the latest quarter and economists at UBS expect the trend to continue. Photo: Louise Kennerley

A report from Deloitte Access Economics, published on Monday, also highlighted a slower pace of home building as a potential economic headwind, alongside softer growth in China. Even so, it added these was a “caveat” to an “otherwise solid outlook” for the economy.
“The pace of home building is set to shrink further amid increasing evidence that gravity may soon start to catch up with stupidity in housing markets,” the Access report said.
“Relative to the rest of the rich world, Australia’s economic outlook may not be quite as impressive as it once was, but we are still kicking goals.”
Despite signs of slowing in recent months, including softer price growth and declines in new lending to property investors, both Sydney and Melbourne reported auction clearance rates of about 70% at the weekend.
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Those properties represent wonderful buying opportunities – just need a little TLC and the lucky owners will make a fortune..an absolute fortune!

And Sydney’s property market will continue to go from strength to strength, profits without end. Amen.

The ‘Four Pillars’ of Australian banking, solid, amazingly profitable & filled to the brim with full recourse mortgages, will NEVER fail, even if interest rates go to 6% – and that’s never going to happen either. The Reserve Bank has your back..

Sydney mortgage owners would rather dumpster-dive, or eat their first born if things got really tough, before relinquishing their property. Never gonna happen! (and anyway, a family with all members on the dole can still afford their repayments AND a bit over for beer & smokes and Mackers every night )

Sydney in particular & Australia in general represent Utopia, a Paradise, Heaven on Earth. Don’t you wish you were here?

Those properties can be advertised as “rust-ic”. If it can buy you a foothold in the part of the planet that wasn’t turned into a hellhole, it is worth it – even if you have to loot the treasury of the country or sell someone else’s organs.

in australia you pay for the dirt…land title…in sydney and melbourne people are paying millions of dollars for small patchs of dirt that some consider well located….homebush is not well located ..closer to the beach better located…

sydney’s traffic has become a nightmare..many have toll bills over $8000 pa…no biggie…it does have nice weather and beaches …

everything depends on china…chinese money plenty of it dirty has been flowing into sydney melbourne markets for past decade..many stories of suitcases stuffed with cash…ATO and government looks away unless it’s megamillion purchase..

many thousands of properties lie vacant..chinese cash boxes..property has become financialized…

just about the only thing people talk about in sydney and melbourne is property..how much their place is worth, what they will do next, renovations planned…

there is complete disconnect between incomes and property values…how many can stump up $400k down payment?…million dollar mortgages are common..mortgages represent 50% of bank balance sheets…demand for mortgage credit is so strong foreign markets need to be tapped…one day gravity will catch up with stupidity..ps i lived there as a kid

The whole global economy is on the verge of becoming upside down again. Due to the global synchronizing the leader of economic world has come together to make the present world economic situation better. https://goo.gl/Nv5NUw

mish the analysis of this post is incomplete, why you do complain about australian million dollars property but not property in california which can costs many times more. Why? because you cant believe anything out of america could be valued in the millions??

Secondly so what, you are presenting an observation but little in the way of stating the underlying reason why property prices in certain areas are so expensive. Frankly im tired of prognosticators of doom showing the worst house it what is obviously a prime area, where the local economy can justify that price…again back to super rich parts of LA and san franciso.

Third and finally, how are most of the homes purchased..i mean were they purchased with cash, like the Chinese often do if not what the level of down payments are needed. Does Australia have a subprime mortgage problem. What is debt serving record for most property in
australia.

mish the analysis of this post is incomplete, why you do complain about australian million dollars property but not property in california which can costs many times more. Why? because you cant believe anything out of america could be valued in the millions??

I am a regular reader of Mish’s blog. As far as I can remember, the Aussie housing bubble implosion call started around 2008 following the GFC. Every year since then one analyst or economist after another has been calling the crash. It;s been almost 10 years since and median prices of houses in Sydney and Melbourne, two popular cities, have more than doubled.

I guess if you have been waiting to buy a house in these areas since 2008 but afraid to buy because of the repeated bubble crash calls, it must have been painful to watch now.

Recently, one economist said he was poor in calling the crash, but was right in
calling out the cause of the bubble and that the crash did not materialize because
of policy interventions, such as incentives for first home buyers, low interest rates, etc.
I am surprised he gave policy intervention as an excuse, coming from an economist. What
does he expect the government to do? Sit still and do nothing? And let the crash bring
down the economy with it?

Anyone can make a crash prediction. If you make one every year, you will get it right one day. if you get it right after 10 years, many opportunities will have been lost.

Superficially this may sound like a fair criticism, but you are forgetting that once a bubble does burst, the class of asset owners as a whole cannot possibly escape the losses – which are usually commensurate to the size of the preceding bubble. The beneficiaries of those “opportunities” you cite will only be people who have found another bag holder in time.
The problem is that these artificial bubbles (which are the result of money and credit supply expansion) damage the economy structurally. No matter how great it all feels while the boom lasts, in the end you can find yourself in a situation akin to the one Greece is now in, where people are now stuck in a ruin of an economy with a government that is getting ever more repressive to keep its creditors happy.

Let me tell you my story. I live in Sydney, Wahroonga suburb in particular. In 2008 I was hunting for a house when the GFC happened. US housing market crashed and I was expecting the same for Sydney after many well know economist justifying imminent crash here too. There was no crash in Sydney, minor corrections if any. Many economist and analyst kept predicting imminent housing crash in Sydney year after year. It never came. One may come someday, but 9 years have passed. And missed opportunities.

A house that was AUD600K then is now AUD1400K. If a crash happens tomorrow, I doubt it
will go back to AUD600K.

Meanwhile, rental keep escalating due to higher property cost and money in the
bank is giving minuscule return due to low interest rate environment. Double whammy
for me.

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