Taliban attack raises questions about Afghan readiness

Updated
April 04, 2013 19:14:00

A brazen attack by the Taliban on a court in western Afghanistan has left at least 44 people dead, most of them civilians. Questions are being asked once again about the ability of local security forces to protect the country as the NATO led force prepares to withdraw at the end of next year.

TIM PALMER: A brazen attack by the Taliban on a court in western Afghanistan has left at least 44 people dead, most of them civilians.

The carefully planned attack raises those repeated questions about the ability of local security forces to protect the country by themselves when the NATO led forces prepare to withdraw at the end of next year.

It also challenges notions of whether elements of the Taliban can be brought into peace negotiations towards a lasting settlement.

Reporter Katie Hamann has more.

KATIE HAMANN: The attack on a courthouse in the western province of Farah demonstrates once again the Taliban's ability to organise merciless strikes against supposedly secure facilities.

Disguised as Afghan soldiers, nine insurgents stormed the building after passing through several checkpoints in a military vehicle. It took local security forces seven hours to subdue them, by which stage 44 people, mostly civilians were dead and 91 injured.

Raspal Khosa is an independent security analyst. He says the Taliban is looking for more high profile targets as international security forces begin to wind down their operations.

RASPAL KHOSA: It's the sort of attack that the insurgency is going to carry out because they're attacking the sutures of transition and the attack probably had the, had achieved its effect, which was to basically create consternation and a sense that the Afghan security forces can't even secure the most critical area of that province.

KATIE HAMANN: For the first time since the conflict began Afghanistan's National Army will be taking the lead during this year's so-called summer fighting season.

According to the withdrawal plan, the ANA is now responsible for protecting 75 per cent of the population. Officially they are around 200,000 active Afghan troops, with plans to increase this by 60,000 by 2015.

Dr Adam Lockyer is a lecturer in US politics and foreign policy at the University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre. He says the ANA is struggling to maintain troop numbers.

ADAM LOCKYER: So last year they hit their target of having 200,000 soldiers in the ANA. That's now dropped back down to about 175 ANA soldiers and that's likely to continue to drop.

So desertion runs about 20 per cent per year. Failure to re-enlist runs about 10 per cent per year. This means that in any given year the ANA needs to recruit an extra 60,000 troops just to maintain current levels and no organisation is able to, to be able to maintain combat effectiveness when you're losing that many soldiers.

KATIE HAMANN: Could you put a figure on the number of Afghan brigades or soldiers that are genuinely combat ready and able to respond to these sorts of attacks?

ADAM LOCKYER: Well officially it's only one out of 23 brigades that's able to operate completely independently from international forces. So the other 23 brigades are operational but they're completely reliant upon the international forces to be able to deploy into the field and to maintain them in the field through aircraft, through vehicles and to operate effectively and then to bring them home again. So it's really only one brigade out of 23 that's able to stand up to the Taliban without international support.

KATIE HAMANN: Yesterday's bloodshed in Farah is also likely to set back negotiations with the Taliban, which have been underwritten by plans to establish a political office for the group in Doha.

In an interview earlier this week Afghanistan's president, Hamid Karzai, reaffirmed his commitment to a dialogue with the insurgents.

HAMID KARZAI: We never planned to eliminate the Taliban. Not me, not the Afghan people, not the Afghan government. I'm still calling them brothers. I'm still trying to have them be part of the country again and participate in the Afghan life.

KATIE HAMANN: The plan to establish a political bureau for the Taliban was first initiated by German and American leaders, although talks with them have stalled since a US soldier killed at least 17 Afghan civilians in a gun rampage last November.

US Brigadier-General and former assistant secretary of state Mark Kimmitt says the opening of an office may not necessarily mean parties to the conflict will sit down with each other any time soon.

MARK KIMMITT: Well it could well be that both sides are posturing at this point, trying to stake out positions before they start a comprehensive set of dialogue and talks.

If I was a Taliban right now taking a look at the next couple of years I probably would feel the same way. They believe, to a great extent, that they may be gaining ground inside so why negotiate that away?

President Karzai on the other hand may feel that he is losing ground with the departure of the coalition so he may want to try to strike a deal with the Taliban while the Taliban are still there.