That's according to forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, which has set 2016 as the year when China's economy officially surpasses that of America as the world's largest.

To put this into perspective, only 10 years ago the U.S. economy was three times the size of China's, according to Brett Arends at MarketWatch. We knew this was coming, but this is the first time the IMF has put an actual date on it. "Most people aren’t prepared for this," Arends writes. "They aren’t even aware it’s that close."

The Daily Mail puts it starkly: "Whoever wins the 2012 presidential election will have the dubious honour of presiding over the fall of the United States." Even at its peak, Japan only had half of America's economic output, the Mail adds, and the USSR produced only a third.

If you look solely at the gross domestic output of the U.S. and China using current exchange rates, you wouldn't see this coming, Arends writes. That's because China works hard to undervalue its currency.

The IMF analyzed something different: "Purchasing power parity." Or, the amount people earn and spend in their economies.

Using this yardstick, China's economy is set to zoom from $11.2 trillion this year to $19 trillion in 2016, Arends writes. The U.S. economy will rise as well in that period, but only from $15.2 trillion to $18.8 trillion.

And the U.S. portion of the world economy drops to 17.7%, which Arends writes is the lowest in modern times.

The Telegraph notes that the IMF report comes a few days after Standard & Poor's sounded a warning shot over America's debt status. The U.S. federal debt has hit World War II levels, and Medicare, Medicaid and other entitlement liabilities are five times the annual GDP.

"It is premature to write off America as the world’s dominant superpower, for this is a nation that possesses an extraordinary ability to rebuild itself after periods of decline," writes Nile Gardiner. "It remains a beacon of hope to billions across the world, a 'shining city upon a hill' built on the ideals of liberty and freedom, as Reagan reminded the American people before he left office."

So what's next? Will India and its gangbuster economy eventually pass the U.S. for second place? Will the U.S. dollar be replaced as the world's dominant reserve currency?

I agree that the other countries are starting to become a bit more dominant in some 'areas' (technology for example) but this makes me feel skeptical.

"As she raised a glass of water, everyone exptected they'd be asked the "half empty or half full" question. Instead, with a smile on her face, she inquired, "How heavy is this glass of water?" The answers called out ranged from 8oz. to 20 oz. She replied, "The absolute weight doesn't matter. If I hold it for an hour, I'll have an ache in my arm. If I hold it for a day, my arm will feel numb and paralyzed. In each case, the weight of the glass doesn't change but the longer I hold it, the heavier it becomes." She continued, "The stress and worries in life are like that glass of water. think about them for awhile and nothing happens. Think about them for a big longer and they begin to hurt. And if you think about them all day long, you will feel paralyzed - incapable of doing anything. Always remember to put the glass down."~ AnonymousPrevious Quote

China would have to have rather better growth than the last I've seen to do it in five years, but six or seven should be realistic. The US, and Japan and various European countries to varying degrees, still dominate China in high technology. China is improving there too, but it is lower-tech manufacturing where it's dominating.

Sort of. China is already having an influence on the international stage and will likely have more, but it is an asymptote. Countries that are playing catch up have a learning curve advantage where they can steal the techniques already pioneered by successful countries, but they can only use those to get close without innovation China will always have limited influence. Not saying they won't but their influence is only so high because they represent 1.3 billion people, same with how Germany, France and England by themselves have a limited economic impact but when you factor them in as the EU they have far more bargaining power because they represent a larger population. Their per capita GDP is only $7,500 (ppp) so they have a way to go. Now by 2060 or so China may have a higher standard of living that the US. Who knows though. That is a long way off.

Zeph do you ever tire of being perfect? ~DaveZeph is still awesome though. ~RivalI love you so much right now Zeph. ~YoshiI love you Zeph. You and your simple yet humorous topic-breakers. ~CoosZeph has left me inspired. ~MathiasZeph is so awesome even soulless bits of binary worship him. ~WizardCurse YOU ZEPH! CURSE YOU! ~JesusChristWE ARE SORRY THAT WE ARE NOT AS PERFECT AS YOU, ZEPH! ~StufflikeheartsZepherin for forum queen and writer of the best seller "how to screw your brethen up for dummies". ~ The Mirak

Ah, but no one's a real villain in real life, but I think the chinese government is scary and I don't want it there anymore, personally.It would be interesting to see a "FUCK YEAH AMERICA, WE'RE GONNA FREE THE SHIT OUTTA YA", though.

One time when I was high, I thought I was in an ambulance dying. Turns out I was just eating sherbert. -stufflikehearts-

China knows what the fuck is going on. How could the USA really go to war against the supplier of its electronic components of the weapons it would use in the war? I can't even think about China without complex ideas about conspiracies, Google, Baidu, Yum Foods Inc, R.J. Reynolds, Darfur, the world's supply of copper, North Korea, Taiwan, the CNSA (China's NASA).... there's just too much to consider with China.

On a more serious note, does China have labor laws yet or is it still sweatshops and stuff? It's not too hard to be competitive when you aren't hindered by the same rules as your competition.

icha_icha_paradise wrote:Oh, come on, isn't there anything we can do to stop them?

Yup steal their higher end college graduates. Essentially initiate a brain drain. Take their phds and doctors by offering them citizenship and higher paying jobs. The only problem is that republicans hate this type of plan and will try to block it, but it would work. If we brought in an extra 80-100k doctors and phds a year it would certainly allow us to out innovate them.

Zeph do you ever tire of being perfect? ~DaveZeph is still awesome though. ~RivalI love you so much right now Zeph. ~YoshiI love you Zeph. You and your simple yet humorous topic-breakers. ~CoosZeph has left me inspired. ~MathiasZeph is so awesome even soulless bits of binary worship him. ~WizardCurse YOU ZEPH! CURSE YOU! ~JesusChristWE ARE SORRY THAT WE ARE NOT AS PERFECT AS YOU, ZEPH! ~StufflikeheartsZepherin for forum queen and writer of the best seller "how to screw your brethen up for dummies". ~ The Mirak

People who are smart enough to get a good education do so outside of China.

People who can afford to study outside China, do.

Families who can afford to move out of China, do.

As long as good degrees beget good employment, the educated and wealthy will just inevitably leave China, except in the cases of guys who're wealthy due to political reasons, etc.

As long as a good education remains a Western education, and a Western education is one that convinces people that democracy is the way to go, and said Western education's degree will net you a good job outside of China....

I think we should more aggressively court advanced degrees from other countries. I would love if over half the immigrants that come to the US have 4 year degrees and half of those have advanced degrees. If we actively courted these higher end degrees we could really increase our human capital.

We already have more advanced degrees than any other nation, but I would like that gap to increase, and one of the highest rates of 4 year degrees+ of any country, it's just our high school students that are dumb asses.

Zeph do you ever tire of being perfect? ~DaveZeph is still awesome though. ~RivalI love you so much right now Zeph. ~YoshiI love you Zeph. You and your simple yet humorous topic-breakers. ~CoosZeph has left me inspired. ~MathiasZeph is so awesome even soulless bits of binary worship him. ~WizardCurse YOU ZEPH! CURSE YOU! ~JesusChristWE ARE SORRY THAT WE ARE NOT AS PERFECT AS YOU, ZEPH! ~StufflikeheartsZepherin for forum queen and writer of the best seller "how to screw your brethen up for dummies". ~ The Mirak

I just know that "education" is one of the top reasons why families will immigrate out of China/Hong Kong/Taiwan to North America or the UK.

The question is if that is a historical trend or a current/projected trend. In my experience there are a lot of people who still base their decisions on the world as it was in the 60s, as though nothing has changed except the technology and the date.

well the IMF are greedy assholes, but I don't know if that's worth a topic necro.

Zeph do you ever tire of being perfect? ~DaveZeph is still awesome though. ~RivalI love you so much right now Zeph. ~YoshiI love you Zeph. You and your simple yet humorous topic-breakers. ~CoosZeph has left me inspired. ~MathiasZeph is so awesome even soulless bits of binary worship him. ~WizardCurse YOU ZEPH! CURSE YOU! ~JesusChristWE ARE SORRY THAT WE ARE NOT AS PERFECT AS YOU, ZEPH! ~StufflikeheartsZepherin for forum queen and writer of the best seller "how to screw your brethen up for dummies". ~ The Mirak