Top 10 fantasy sleeper picks for 2016-17

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Top 10 fantasy sleeper picks for 2016-17

Which players are steals at their current average draft positions in fantasy hockey pools? Matt Larkin identifies his favorite 10.

The fantasy hockey sleeper game is a fun one but a tricky and dangerous one for wannabe genius GMs. Finding the right breakout picks can elevate a team from contender to champion. But picking a sexy sleeper at the wrong time and passing on proven talents can sink you. It's all about knowing exactly when to grab an undervalued guy.

That's why I preach my unofficial "sleeper" rules in this space every year. I don't merely define a sleeper as an under-the-radar guy no one knows about. Some of them fit that exact description, but some are pretty big names, too. My sleepers are:

Players who will outperform their average draft positions

Players who will outperform some players drafted before them

Players you can steal cheap at the ends of drafts to reap major profits

The goal here is to help you find value by cross-referencing my top 200 player rankings with Yahoo's average draft position (ADP) numbers. If I rank a player 88th, and his ADP is 124, that means I value him as a mid-eighth-round pick when he's going in the 11th on average. You can snag him in the 10th round and get eighth-round production year round. That's assuming my predictions steer you right, of course. Last season, I hit on Petr Mrazek, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Mark Scheifele and fizzled or broke even on the rest. But sleepers are sleepers for a reason. We can't expect to get every one of them right, but if you hit on even a couple, you get a huge return on a cheap investment.

With that, here are my top 10 sleepers for 2016-17 based on ADP stats, sorted alphabetically. Note the conspicuous lack of D-men. I just didn't see any major values this year. Most of my favorite breakout picks at the position seem priced appropriately in drafts so far.

Sam Bennett (THN rank: 124; Yahoo ADP: 166.4)

Drafters are completely missing the boat on Bennett's ceiling. He scored 18 goals, including four in one game, in his age-19 season. He played 15:09 per night. Bennett's ice time will obviously climb as he matures into a long-term role as Calgary's No. 2 center, so his offensive numbers should spike, too. And…Alex Killorn is going ahead of Bennett in drafts right now. Killorn will be 27 when the season starts. His career highs in goals and points are 17 and 41, respectively. Bennett already went 18-18-36. His floor sits almost where Killorn's ceiling does, and Bennett's ceiling is sky high. Bennett is actually a more gifted pure scoring weapon than Sean Monahan, so it's not inconceivable Bennett gets a crack on the top line a few years from now. Regardless, 25 goals and 50 points seem well within reach immediately.

Derick Brassard (THN rank: 105; Yahoo average draft position: 160.9)

It feels strange to put Brassard on a sleeper list. He turns 29 later this month. Alas, when drafters are taking him 56 picks – 4.5 rounds in 12-team drafts – later than I think they should, I have to speak up. Ottawa didn't trade a good young center in Mika Zibanejad to give Brassard a minor role. He's at worst the Sens' No. 2 pivot, and I'd give him the inside track on Kyle Turris to start the year as the No. 1. Brassard will have at least one and possibly two of Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman and Bobby Ryan on his wings. Brassard shouldn't have much trouble reaching 55 to 60 points. So why is he being drafted so late?

Andre Burakovsky (THN rank: 141; Yahoo ADP: 176.1)

Burakovsky likely won't morph into a top-10 scorer like Evgeny Kuznetsov did last season but could enjoy a similar breakout. Both have first-round draft pedigrees. Both have excellent natural puckhandling ability, though Burakovsky is a better goal scorer while Kuznetsov is a playmaker. Like Kuznetsov, Burakovsky has a strong chance to play all year in Washington's top six. He should overtake Marcus Johansson for the No. 2 left wing spot. Johansson hasn't topped 20 goals or 47 points in his six seasons. He's not going to get much better offensively. Burakovsky, though, is just 21 and closed 2015-16 with 14 goals and 29 points in his last 45 games. That pro-rates to 26-27-53 over 82 games. That seems like a bang-on projection for Burakovsky this season. He can do some damage on the Caps' second line with Kuznetsov or Nicklas Backstrom centering him.

Leon Draisaitl (THN rank: 104; Yahoo ADP: 168.4)

Draisaitl started out as an elite producer in 2015-16, with nine goals and 26 points in his first 20 games. He then hit the skids for 10 goals and 25 points over his next 52 games. We know what difference was. Leon Draisaitl was a monster producer when he played with Taylor Hall, as Jonathan Willis points out, and Draisaitl struggled badly without Hall. Willis cautions us not to anoint Draisaitl a franchise pillar so soon, and while that's prudent, we also shouldn't downgrade him too much in fantasy drafts. (a) He's only 20 years old; (b) he can play center or wing; (c) Todd McLellan likes to move his high-end forwards around to keep them in the top six rather than demote them to checking lines, and (d) should Draisaitl play the right side this year, it would be alongside Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or maybe even Connor McDavid. We don't have to accept point-per-game Draisaitl as a reality again. But 51-point Draisaitl? Entirely possible. Given he still has upside for a lot more than that, there's no way he should be going after guys like Artem Anisimov in drafts. We know what Anisimov is, and that's a guy who managed 42 points spending a whole season on a line with the NHL scoring champ. We don't yet know what Draisaitl is.

Nikolaj Ehlers (THN rank: 134; Yahoo ADP: 168.2)

Rookie Patrik Laine will attract a lot of attention in Winnipeg this season, but don't sleep on the lightning-quick Dane Ehlers. He held his own as a rookie 15 goals and 38 points. He finished strong with 26 points in 35 games, and he formed a powerhouse top line with Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler. With Laine likely to play right wing on the second line, there's no reason to break up the top unit. Ehlers should see a significant jump in points this season. It's especially encouraging that he's already such a positive possession driver at his age.

Robby Fabbri (THN rank: 111; Yahoo ADP: 168.1)

Removing – and not adequately replacing – prominent forwards David Backes and Troy Brouwer shuffles up the Blues depth chart. Youngster Fabbri played a lot of third-line left wing as a rookie. He may stay on the wing to open 2016-17, as the Blues still have Jori Lehtera, Paul Stastny and Alexander Steen up the middle, but Fabbri will play on a scoring line. He has to. The Blues need his dynamic skill set. His 18-goal, 37-point debut was respectable, and his 15 points over 20 playoff games gave us a better preview of what to expect going forward. He's a special player. I'd expect a spike in minutes, increased power play time and a leap of at least 15 points this season.

Mikael Granlund (THN rank: 146; Yahoo ADP: undrafted)

Sigh. I can't remember how many times I've talked Granlund up as a big-time sleeper. I've been intoxicated by his potential ever since our scouting panel ranked him as the game's No. 2 overall prospect in Future Watch 2012. We know Granlund has some slick offensive skills. He's flashed them repeatedly in the playoffs. His regular season offensive totals have been consistently underwhelming, however. His 13 goals and 44 points last season were career highs. Still, with Granlund likely playing the wing and Bruce Boudreau taking over as head coach, I'm intrigued one more time. Boudreau typically fields high-scoring clubs, albeit he has less to work with in Minny than he did in Washington and Anaheim. Granlund costs nothing right now – he's not even being drafted in the majority of Yahoo leagues – so he's worth the zero-risk investment.

Bo Horvat (THN rank: 159; Yahoo ADP: undrafted)

Put your eggs in veteran Brandon Sutter's basket if you want. I'll bet on Horvat. Sutter is the more mature player, a veteran two-way guy, but we know what he is by now. He's 27, and Horvat equalled Sutter's career high in points even though Horvat's sophomore season was considered underwhelming, a minor improvement. I expect Horvat to hold down the second-line center job for most of the season and wouldn't be surprised if he even earned the role out of camp. Keeper leaguers should also keep an eye on the rapidly emptying hourglass that is Henrik Sedin, who turns 36 in a couple weeks. Horvat is the logical successor as the first-line pivot a couple years down the road.

Mikko Rantanen (THN rank: 164; Yahoo ADP: undrafted)

Rantanen is a fun name for this list because he's a real sleeper, a guy who should be available in the late rounds of, say, three quarters of drafts, excluding keeper formats. Rantanen slipped under the radar during the epic rookie arrivals of McDavid, Jack Eichel, Dylan Larkin, Max Domi and so on. Rantanen cracked the Colorado Avalanche at 18 but was sent to the AHL after nine games. He ripped it up for 24 goals and 60 points in 52 games en route to co-rookie of the year honors. Rantanen will get a long look at a scoring role in Colorado this year. It wouldn't be surprising to see him crack the top nine. He's physically ready for the NHL at 6-foot-4 and 211 pounds.

Sam Reinhart (THN rank: 119; Yahoo ADP: 165.1)

Deeper, more knowledgeable leagues know all about Reinhart, but he's a nice post-hype sleeper in shallow or casual leagues. He was the second overall pick in the 2014 draft, and the Sabres returned him to the WHL after nine disastrous games in 2014-15. Reinhart returned last season, overshadowed by an even bigger prospect in Eichel. The pair forged some real chemistry. Reinhart busted out for 23 goals, including 15 in his last 41 games, which extrapolates to a 30-goal pace over a full season. A 30-20-50 line is a reasonable ask this year. He could provide you with handy back-end goal scoring, and he's taken later than Justin Abdelkader (!!!) on average in Yahoo drafts.

THE HEAD-SCRATCHER TOP FIVE

These players have no business being sleepers yet are picked inexplicably low. Drafters, what's wrong with you!?

Matt Duchene (THN rank: 37; Yahoo ADP: 100.2)

Patrik Laine (THN rank: 96; Yahoo ADP: 142.6)

Milan Lucic (THN rank: 42; Yahoo ADP: 92.9)

Ondrej Palat (THN rank: 99; Yahoo ADP: 171.9)

Jakub Voracek (THN rank: 49; Yahoo ADP: 86.7)

GOALIE SLEEPER

I can't officially identify an official goalie sleeper this season since I tend to value them lower than most prognosticators. Oilers goaltender Cam Talbot is going at a bargain-basement price right now. though. His ADP is 157.2, which makes him the 28th goalie off the board on average. That's ludicrous. Edmonton has nowhere to go but up, and Talbot still managed a .923 save percentage from Jan. 1 onward last year. Fantasy football players know the ZeroRB strategy well, and hockey has an equivalent in the ZeroGoalie strategy, which means waiting until the mid to late rounds to grab a goalie. Talbot is an ideal ZeroGoalie pick, set to play at least 55 games and likely to improve on last year's results.

Montreal can't panic over injuries to Galchenyuk and Desharnais

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Montreal can't panic over injuries to Galchenyuk and Desharnais

While the loss of the two centers is a crushing blow in the short-term, this team is positioned too well to lose assets in a hasty trade scenario

The Montreal Canadiens will be without top center Alex Galchenyuk and fellow pivot David Desharnais for at least six weeks, perhaps even eight. Both players sustained knee injuries in recent games and the news is obviously not good. But GM Marc Bergevin would make it even worse by jumping into a hasty trade.

True, the Habs now look skeletal down the middle (though Tomas Plekanec isn't a horrible choice for the top line and Andrew Shaw can help out), but this is a short-term problem. Montreal is the top team in the Eastern Conference right now and with netminder Carey Price, they can win more than a few games in the next month or so just on the strength of his gifted play. And the Shea Weber-led defense has been better than expected, so even if the Habs are super-boring and conservative until February, they'll get some results.

Will Montreal still be on top by then? Maybe not, but as long as they don't lose like, 20 games in a row, they'll still be in a playoff position with enough runway left to climb back up the rungs. And as the Los Angeles Kings have proven twice already, you can win the Stanley Cup as long as you get into the playoffs, particularly if your goalie is one of the best on the planet (caveat: being a great possession team helps and the Canadiens are only middling).

But a trade is not the way to go, particularly since the Canadiens aren't deep to begin with. They don't have many attractive pro prospects right now – unless they can drum up interest in a Charles Hudon or Nikita Scherbak – and their best recent draft pick is defenseman Mikhail Sergachev, who should be seen as untouchable. I mean, if Pittsburgh offers up Evgeni Malkin for the 2016 first-rounder and a couple other goodies, you make that trade – but I don't think that's going to happen.

If anything, Montreal needs to build their pipeline up, instead of taking assets away from it. The Canadiens ranked just 23rd in the NHL in our most recent Future Watch edition and Sergachev was the only pick they made in the first two rounds this summer. They do have two second-rounders for 2017 (their own and Washington's selection), but again: they need those.

Galchenyuk and Desharnais will be back and in all likelihood, the Canadiens will still be in a playoff position. The short-term may seem a little bleak, but the price of a quick patch isn't worth the long-term loss. Patience is a virtue here.

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ECHL defenseman Anthony Calabrese is “lucky to be alive” after a “careless, reckless” hit, and Tyler Murovich, who delivered the blow, has been given a 12-game suspension as a first-time offender.

There are few plays scarier than seeing a player hit from behind and sent headfirst into the boards. That kind of play is made that much harder to watch when knowing the severity of the injury suffered.

During an ECHL contest on Nov. 24 between the Norfolk Admirals and Atlanta Gladiators, ECHL veteran Tyler Murovich delivered an incredibly dangerous shove to the back of Anthony Calabrese, a 24-year-old defenseman who’s only 12 games into his ECHL career.

The result of the hit was frightening. Calabrese was left laying face down on the ice, near motionless. The Admirals rearguard would eventually be placed on a stretcher, taken from the ice and transported to hospital.

That may seem harsh to some given that Murovich is a first-time offender, but given the severity of Calabrese’s injury, it actually seems like a somewhat light punishment.

As a result of the hit, Calabrese suffered broken C7 and T1 vertebrae. In simpler terms, he broke both his neck and his back. Oh, and he also punctured his lung. In fact, Calabrese told The Virginian-Pilot’s Jim Hodges that doctors told the young center that he’s “lucky to be alive.”

“It was a miracle, and they say I’m going to make a full recovery,” Calabrese told Hodges. “It’s going to be a long road, but I’d rather be alive than be in a wheelchair the rest of my life.”

What helped Calabrese escape with his life, he told Hodges, was advice he had gotten early in his career from a high school coach. Calabrese was taught that if he was ever going into the boards head first to lift his chin and turn to the side in an attempt to avoid taking the brunt of the impact with the top of his head.

“That’s honestly the only thing that registered in my mind when I was going in: at the last minute, pick my head up,” Calabrese told Hodges. “I remember picking my head up and turning it to the right.”

Thankfully, doctors told Calabrese that he can eventually return to the ice and that the injuries suffered from the hit won’t cost him his career. His spinal cord, he told Hodges, wasn’t damaged due to the hit. And, as hard as it may be to believe, doctors said it was the “best possible break” in a situation such as Calabrese’s.

John Tavares scores with a move no one had ever done before

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John Tavares scores with a move no one had ever done before

The New York Islanders captain undressed Jay Bouwmeester in the most unusual of ways, but the important thing is he kept the puck. Then he buried it

John Tavares: good at hockey.

The New York Islanders captain pulled off an absolutely stunning series of moves last night, culminating in a laser-shot goal against St. Louis Blues goalie Jake Allen. But let's get back to his humbling of Olympic gold medallist Jay Bouwmeester, because that's where the real magic happened.

Witness, as Tavares puts his stick behind his back and grabs it with his other hand while still skating and fending off Bouwmeester. Then, since he is a patient boy, Tavares waits and waits and waits before firing one top corner on Allen:

As the soccer folks would say, lovely. New York would go on to beat the Blues 3-2, with Anders Lee scoring the other two goals for the Isles. After struggling to begin the season, New York is now 6-2-2 in its past 10 games. Tavares leads the squad with 21 points through 26 contests.

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At least two teams are reportedly interested in acquiring the Sedins for their full cap hit and Canucks veterans could draw interest at the trade deadline. The Kings are looking to clear cap space by moving out Teddy Purcell.

The ongoing struggles of the Vancouver Canucks this season generated some speculation over possible roster moves.

By late-November, The Province's Jason Botchford suggested the Canucks could get an early start on deciding which players to move by the March 1 trade deadline. He felt veterans such as Ryan Miller, Alex Edler, Alexandre Burrows and perhaps even Daniel and Henrik Sedin could be on the move.

Botchford said he knows of two teams that would be willing to acquire the Sedins for their full combined salary-cap hit of $14 million. If the Canucks were to pick up part of that cap hit (which runs through 2017-18), he thinks more clubs would be interested.

The sticking point, of course, is the Sedins' willingness to be traded. So far, they've given no indication that they want out of Vancouver. As Botchford points out, such a move would likely have to take place in the off-season.

Even if the Canucks put the Sedins on the block, they're unlikely to fetch a significant return. While they're still putting up solid numbers (17 points in 26 games), the 36-year-old twins are well past their prime. Teams aren't going to give up a lot for a couple of fading stars. Picks and prospects, sure, but nothing that would immediately reverse the Canucks' fortunes.

As for Miller, he and Canucks management could be willing to work out a contract extension. Botchford's collegue Ben Kuzma doubts the Canucks place the 36-year-old goalie on the block by the trade deadline.

Kuzma notes Miller's stats aren't great this season. However, he feels he'll still be a good fit with Jacob Markstrom, buying some time until promising goalie prospect Thatcher Demko is ready to move up. He wonders if Miller might be agreeable to a two- or three-year deal worth between $4-$4.5 million per season. That's a significant pay cut from Miller's current $6-million annual salary.

Considering Miller's no longer an elite goaltender, he probably won't get much better than that on the open market. He could test next summer's free-agent market, but will likely find few decent offers. He could prefer to avoid uncertainty over his future by staying in Vancouver for a reasonable contract.

KINGS TRYING TO FREE SPACE WITH PURCELL MOVE

Los Angeles Kings left wing Teddy Purcell cleared waivers over the weekend. Signed as a free agent last summer to a one-year, $1.6-million contract, the 31-year-old managed only two points in 12 games this season. Illness and a lower-body injury sidelined him in October, and he was a healthy scratch in the Kings' last four games.

With 21 of 30 NHL teams carrying $2 million or less in cap space, moving Purcell's cap hit is difficult right now. The Kings obviously want to shed his salary without taking any back in a deal. They could be waiting until later in the season to find the right deal.

Rumor Roundup appears regularly only on thehockeynews.com. Lyle Richardson has been an NHL commentator since 1998 on his website, spectorshockey.net, and is a contributing writer for Eishockey News and The Guardian (P.E.I.).For more great profiles, news and views from the world of hockey, subscribe to The Hockey News magazine.