This week brings the first College Football Champion Index™ head-to-head comparison with the BCS Poll and introduces a modified CFCI Ranking System. An explanation of the CFCI Original Ranking is found in the links below with the key to understanding it being that all teams are treated equally in the CFCI Original Ranking and that it’s designed to work itself out over the course of a season. Currently the CFCI Original Rankings include 19 of the AP Top 25 Poll with five of the six different schools (Arkansas, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Arizona St.) looming between 26 and 35 in the CFCI Original. Although having only one loss, the Arkansas Razorbacks are the biggest difference between the CFCI and either the AP Top 25 or the BCS. In large part Arkansas’s statistical defensive performances are to blame in addition to losing some ground because of an off week in the categories which consider performances over the course of a season. As against the BCS, the CFCI Original includes 20 of the 25 same schools. Both the CFCI and BCS include Penn St. which is omitted from the AP Top 25 Poll. Three of the five differences between the two are found in schools ranked 26 through 35 in the CFCI Original (Arkansas, Georgia and Texas A&M), but expanded CFCI rankings don’t include either Texas or Auburn. Both schools have two losses while Texas’ defensive rankings were pummeled over the last two weeks by the collective 93 points racked up by Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. Auburn suffers on both sides of the ball from giving up more than 34 points in 3 games this year while scoring no more than 17 points in 3 games this season.

Head-to-Head between Alabama and LSU, the Tide hold slight advantages statistically in the Passing First Downs component of Total First Downs by Season, Pass Efficiency Defense, Scoring Offense, Sacks by Season, and Passing Offense. LSU holds small advantages over Alabama in Passing Efficiency Offense and Turnover Margin. The overall difference after every category is measured is only fourteen-thousandths of a point. The difference in the opinion polls likely comes from LSU’s victories over 4 Top 25 teams as opposed to Alabama’s 3.

College Football Champion Index Original™ Week 7

Performance Rank

CFCI Week 7

Performance

Elimination

Elimination Rank

1

Alabama

0.970

0.970

1

2

LSU

0.956

0.956

2

3

Wisconsin

0.948

0.948

3

4

Boise St.

0.936

0.936

4

6

Stanford

0.925

0.925

5

7

Oklahoma

0.922

0.922

6

11

Clemson

0.871

0.871

7

18

Houston

0.856

0.856

8

28

Oklahoma St.

0.832

0.832

9

31

Kansas St.

0.826

0.826

10

5

Cincinnati

0.931

0.621

11

9

Virginia Tech

0.910

0.607

12

10

Illinois

0.893

0.595

13

12

Michigan St.

0.870

0.580

14

15

Penn St.

0.861

0.574

15

22

Oregon

0.853

0.569

16

23

Michigan

0.853

0.569

17

24

South Carolina

0.850

0.567

18

26

Georgia Tech

0.848

0.565

19

27

Southern Miss.

0.835

0.556

20

34

Washington

0.819

0.546

21

38

West Virginia

0.810

0.540

22

41

Rutgers

0.807

0.538

23

56

La.-Lafayette

0.771

0.514

24

57

SMU

0.769

0.513

25

62

Nebraska

0.763

0.509

26

66

Arkansas

0.759

0.506

27

8

Temple

0.920

0.460

28

13

South Fla.

0.866

0.433

29

17

TCU

0.856

0.428

30

19

Georgia

0.855

0.428

31

20

Texas A&M

0.855

0.427

32

29

North Carolina

0.828

0.414

33

33

Notre Dame

0.824

0.412

34

35

Arizona St.

0.819

0.409

35

42

Baylor

0.806

0.403

36

43

FIU

0.805

0.403

37

44

Arkansas St.

0.802

0.401

38

45

Texas Tech

0.796

0.398

39

46

Iowa

0.796

0.398

40

54

Texas

0.774

0.387

41

55

Virginia

0.771

0.386

42

63

San Diego St.

0.762

0.381

43

67

Wyoming

0.757

0.379

44

70

Wake Forest

0.756

0.378

45

72

Auburn

0.755

0.377

46

76

Syracuse

0.734

0.367

47

78

BYU

0.718

0.359

48

14

Missouri

0.865

0.346

49

16

UCF

0.858

0.343

50

21

Ohio

0.854

0.341

51

25

Florida St.

0.849

0.339

52

32

Toledo

0.825

0.330

53

36

Ohio St.

0.816

0.326

54

37

Air Force

0.813

0.325

55

40

Northern Ill.

0.808

0.323

56

47

Utah

0.782

0.313

57

48

Miami (FL)

0.782

0.313

58

50

Hawaii

0.778

0.311

59

52

Purdue

0.776

0.311

60

53

Florida

0.776

0.310

61

58

Washington St.

0.768

0.307

62

59

North Carolina St.

0.768

0.307

63

60

Nevada

0.767

0.307

64

61

California

0.764

0.306

65

68

Tennessee

0.756

0.303

66

69

Western Mich.

0.756

0.303

67

79

New Mexico St.

0.718

0.287

68

83

Tulsa

0.708

0.283

69

87

Eastern Mich.

0.695

0.278

70

88

Ball St.

0.690

0.276

71

91

Colorado St.

0.681

0.272

72

92

UTEP

0.680

0.272

73

93

Duke

0.679

0.271

74

39

Mississippi St.

0.809

0.270

75

96

Vanderbilt

0.673

0.269

76

101

UCLA

0.662

0.265

77

49

Northwestern

0.779

0.260

78

51

Connecticut

0.778

0.259

79

109

Iowa St.

0.634

0.254

80

64

Louisville

0.761

0.254

81

65

Pittsburgh

0.759

0.253

82

71

Bowling Green

0.756

0.252

83

73

Louisiana Tech

0.752

0.251

84

74

Maryland

0.736

0.245

85

75

La.-Monroe

0.734

0.245

86

77

Navy

0.724

0.241

87

80

Kansas

0.715

0.238

88

81

Utah St.

0.714

0.238

89

82

Middle Tenn.

0.710

0.237

90

84

Fresno St.

0.701

0.234

91

85

Army

0.699

0.233

92

95

Rice

0.674

0.225

93

97

Marshall

0.670

0.223

94

98

San Jose St.

0.668

0.223

95

99

Miami (OH)

0.665

0.222

96

102

Western Ky.

0.661

0.220

97

106

Troy

0.651

0.217

98

107

East Carolina

0.650

0.217

99

111

Ole Miss

0.600

0.200

100

86

Tulane

0.696

0.199

101

89

North Texas

0.688

0.196

102

94

Buffalo

0.675

0.193

103

100

Oregon St.

0.663

0.190

104

104

Boston College

0.657

0.188

105

105

Arizona

0.654

0.187

106

120

Kentucky

0.549

0.183

107

108

Central Mich.

0.641

0.183

108

90

Colorado

0.686

0.171

109

113

Minnesota

0.591

0.169

110

103

Indiana

0.658

0.165

111

117

Akron

0.562

0.161

112

118

UNLV

0.558

0.159

113

110

Memphis

0.603

0.151

114

112

New Mexico

0.595

0.149

115

114

Idaho

0.581

0.145

116

115

Kent St.

0.569

0.142

117

116

Fla. Atlantic

0.563

0.141

118

119

UAB

0.557

0.139

119

30

Southern California

0.827

0.000

120

Sort as You Like.
*University of Southern California is Banned from post-season play through 2011 and is automatically eliminated from contention.

In working with modifications to the CFCI, two things became evident. The first was that losses by some schools are treated worse than losses by others whether one looks at the AP Top 25 or the BCS Poll. It should be noted for those who don’t know that the AP Top 25 is not included in the BCS computation. The second issue is illustrated by Louisiana-Lafayette in the CFCI Original. Although it may work out over the course of the season, the Rajun Cajuns’ sole loss this season is to Oklahoma State by a score of 61-34. Through Week 7 the highest ranked CFCI opponent in the Elimination Index that La-Lafayette has beaten has been 98th ranked Troy. It makes little football common sense to place the Rajun Cajuns among the elite.

Believing that the CFCI has much going for it already, without the benefit of study (which will take some time) the logical way of tweaking the system was to take the observations above and see if they might be made to approximate the AP Top 25 and BCS Poll when the same math was applied to similarly-situated schools. In some manner it would bring human evaluation into the CFCI, and yes, it might be fairly said that the numbers are being manipulated within a framework to produce a result.

The easiest and first choice was to recognize and account for the difference between BCS and non-BCS Conference Schools when they lose. Adjustments were made by adding a slightly greater impact on the Elimination Index when non-BCS Conference team loses. But the change didn’t make a tremendous difference and specifically didn’t take a team like the Houston Cougars into account. At 6-0, Houston is worthy of some recognition but with the Cougars’ best victory over a CFCI 77th ranked UCLA, keying on losses wouldn’t make any fair adjustment.

The difference between BCS and non-BCS conferences was once again played upon. The idea here was to discount the Performance Score without making the hurdle insurmountable for a non-BCS Conference school. Two exceptions were made for schools who have cracked the BCS barrier recently and who are treated differently as is done in the real world. Neither Boise State nor TCU were tagged with the non-BCS reduction in Performance Scores. For Boise, its performance scores are great enough that it wouldn’t keep the school out of the CFCI’s Top 10 even if a reduction was applied. TCU has two losses and the losses alone would bring them down the list with or without a reduction in performance values.

Even applying those changes the net result didn’t change by much the number of CFCI-ranked teams in either the AP Top 25 or the BCS Polls. In other words, despite blatant changes applied across categories of teams, as long as all BCS Conference teams, with two noted exceptions, were treated the same, all the changes did to some extent was to substitute out one set of teams for another set of non-AP Top 25 or non-BCS Ranked teams. The sticking points came in the system’s evaluation of one-loss ACC and Big East teams. With BCS Conference teams such as Clemson, poll voters don’t appear to care that Clemson is in the ACC as long as it remains undefeated. For the CFCI, if a team doesn’t lose, its Performance Score is the same as its Elimination Score. One-loss ACC and Big East Teams, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech in the ACC and Rutgers, Cincinnati and West Virginia in the Big East, collectively fair no better in either the AP or BCS Polls than a No. 11 West Virginia ranking while Rutgers and Cincinnati are in neither poll.

Please pardon the long path to the imperfect solution, but it’s a point worth noting. When Elimination Scores (i.e. accounting for losses) were calculated exactly the same way for ACC, Big East, and non-BCS Conference schools, the result is the Index below which more closely approximates the AP Top 25 and BCS Polls. With the tweaks as described, the CFCI Modified Index includes 23 of the 25 AP Top 25 Poll teams and 22 of the 25 BCS Poll Teams. In the end, non-BCS Conference Teams’ performances were were discounted and losses of non-BCS, ACC, and Big East Teams are slightly more harsh than for non-BCS teams. The results are some indication of how poll voters are behaving collectively regardless of whether they actually believe they are making those evaluations.

In the end, the CFCI Original Index is expected to include somewhere around 20-22 of the BCS and AP Top 25 Polls without the modifications.

College Football Champion Index Modified™ 7

Performance Rank

Modified CFCI Week 7

Performance

Elimination

Elimination Rank

1

Alabama

0.970

0.970

1

2

LSU

0.956

0.956

2

3

Wisconsin

0.948

0.948

3

4

Boise St.

0.936

0.936

4

6

Stanford

0.925

0.925

5

7

Oklahoma

0.922

0.922

6

10

Clemson

0.871

0.871

7

23

Oklahoma St.

0.832

0.832

8

26

Kansas St.

0.826

0.826

9

59

Houston

0.728

0.728

10

9

Illinois

0.893

0.714

11

11

Michigan St.

0.870

0.696

12

14

Penn St.

0.861

0.689

13

18

Oregon

0.853

0.683

14

19

Michigan

0.853

0.683

15

20

South Carolina

0.850

0.680

16

28

Washington

0.819

0.655

17

5

Cincinnati

0.931

0.621

18

49

Nebraska

0.763

0.611

19

52

Arkansas

0.759

0.607

20

8

Virginia Tech

0.910

0.607

21

16

Georgia

0.855

0.570

22

17

Texas A&M

0.855

0.570

22

22

Georgia Tech

0.848

0.565

24

29

Arizona St.

0.819

0.546

25

31

West Virginia

0.810

0.540

26

33

Rutgers

0.807

0.538

27

34

Baylor

0.806

0.537

28

35

Texas Tech

0.796

0.531

29

36

Iowa

0.796

0.531

30

44

Texas

0.774

0.516

31

55

Auburn

0.755

0.503

32

13

Missouri

0.865

0.494

33

62

Southern Miss.

0.709

0.473

34

30

Ohio St.

0.816

0.466

35

37

Utah

0.782

0.447

36

42

Purdue

0.776

0.444

37

43

Florida

0.776

0.443

38

46

Washington St.

0.768

0.439

39

76

La.-Lafayette

0.655

0.437

40

48

California

0.764

0.437

41

78

SMU

0.653

0.436

42

12

South Fla.

0.866

0.433

43

53

Tennessee

0.756

0.432

44

15

TCU

0.856

0.428

45

24

North Carolina

0.828

0.414

46

27

Notre Dame

0.824

0.412

47

32

Mississippi St.

0.809

0.405

48

39

Temple

0.782

0.391

49

40

Northwestern

0.779

0.390

50

45

Virginia

0.771

0.386

51

70

Vanderbilt

0.673

0.385

52

72

UCLA

0.662

0.379

53

54

Wake Forest

0.756

0.378

54

57

Syracuse

0.734

0.367

55

85

Iowa St.

0.634

0.362

56

61

Kansas

0.715

0.357

57

67

FIU

0.685

0.342

58

68

Arkansas St.

0.682

0.341

59

21

Florida St.

0.849

0.339

60

80

San Diego St.

0.647

0.324

61

81

Wyoming

0.644

0.322

62

38

Miami (FL)

0.782

0.313

63

47

North Carolina St.

0.768

0.307

64

88

BYU

0.611

0.305

65

93

Ole Miss

0.600

0.300

66

71

Oregon St.

0.663

0.295

67

58

UCF

0.730

0.292

68

77

Arizona

0.654

0.290

69

60

Ohio

0.726

0.290

70

63

Toledo

0.701

0.280

71

64

Air Force

0.691

0.277

72

111

Kentucky

0.549

0.275

73

65

Northern Ill.

0.686

0.275

74

66

Colorado

0.686

0.274

75

69

Duke

0.679

0.271

76

73

Hawaii

0.662

0.265

77

74

Indiana

0.658

0.263

78

97

Minnesota

0.591

0.263

79

79

Nevada

0.652

0.261

80

41

Connecticut

0.778

0.259

81

82

Western Mich.

0.643

0.257

82

50

Louisville

0.761

0.254

83

51

Pittsburgh

0.759

0.253

84

56

Maryland

0.736

0.245

85

89

New Mexico St.

0.611

0.244

86

92

Tulsa

0.602

0.241

87

98

Eastern Mich.

0.590

0.236

88

99

Ball St.

0.587

0.235

89

101

Colorado St.

0.579

0.231

90

102

UTEP

0.578

0.231

91

83

Bowling Green

0.642

0.214

92

84

Louisiana Tech

0.639

0.213

93

86

La.-Monroe

0.624

0.208

94

87

Navy

0.616

0.205

95

90

Utah St.

0.607

0.202

96

91

Middle Tenn.

0.603

0.201

97

94

Fresno St.

0.596

0.199

98

95

Army

0.594

0.198

99

104

Rice

0.573

0.191

100

105

Marshall

0.570

0.190

101

106

San Jose St.

0.568

0.189

102

107

Miami (OH)

0.565

0.188

103

75

Boston College

0.657

0.188

104

108

Western Ky.

0.562

0.187

105

109

Troy

0.554

0.185

106

110

East Carolina

0.553

0.184

107

96

Tulane

0.592

0.169

108

100

North Texas

0.584

0.167

109

103

Buffalo

0.574

0.164

110

112

Central Mich.

0.544

0.156

111

118

Akron

0.478

0.137

112

119

UNLV

0.474

0.136

113

113

Memphis

0.512

0.128

114

114

New Mexico

0.505

0.126

115

115

Idaho

0.494

0.124

116

116

Kent St.

0.484

0.121

117

117

Fla. Atlantic

0.478

0.120

118

120

UAB

0.473

0.118

119

25

Southern California

0.827

0.000

120

Sort as You Like.
*University of Southern California is Banned from post-season play through 2011 and is automatically eliminated from contention.

CFCI v. AP Top 25 v. BCS Poll

CFCI Orig. Rk.

CFCI Original

CFCI Mod. Rk.

CFCI Modified

AP Top 25 Rk.

AP Top 25

BCS Rk.

BCS Poll

1

Alabama

1

Alabama

1

LSU

1

LSU

2

LSU

2

LSU

2

Alabama

2

Alabama

3

Wisconsin

3

Wisconsin

3

Oklahoma

3

Oklahoma

4

Boise St.

4

Boise St.

4

Wisconsin

4

Oklahoma St.

5

Stanford

5

Stanford

5

Boise State

5

Boise State

6

Oklahoma

6

Oklahoma

6

Oklahoma St.

6

Wisconsin

7

Clemson

7

Clemson

7

Stanford

7

Clemson

8

Houston

8

Oklahoma St.

8

Clemson

8

Stanford

9

Oklahoma St.

9

Kansas St.

9

Oregon

9

Arkansas

10

Kansas St.

10

Houston

10

Arkansas

10

Oregon

11

Cincinnati

11

Illinois

11

West Virginia

11

Kansas St.

12

Virginia Tech

12

Michigan St.

12

Kansas St.

12

Virginia Tech

13

Illinois

13

Penn St.

13

Nebraska

13

Nebraska

14

Michigan St.

14

Oregon

14

South Carolina

14

South Carolina

15

Penn St.

14

Michigan

15

Michigan St.

15

West Virginia

16

Oregon

16

South Carolina

16

Virginia Tech

16

Michigan St.

16

Michigan

17

Washington

17

Texas A&M

17

Texas A&M

18

South Carolina

18

Cincinnati

18

Michigan

18

Michigan

19

Georgia Tech

19

Nebraska

19

Auburn

19

Houston

20

Southern Miss.

20

Arkansas

20

Georgia Tech

20

Auburn

21

Washington

21

Virginia Tech

21

Houston

21

Penn State

22

West Virginia

22

Georgia

22

Washington

22

Georgia Tech

23

Rutgers

23

Texas A&M

23

Illinois

23

Illinois

24

La.-Lafayette

24

Georgia Tech

24

Georgia

24

Texas

25

SMU

25

Arizona St.

25

Arizona State

25

Washington

Sort as You Like.
*University of Southern California is Banned from post-season play through 2011 and is automatically eliminated from contention.College Football Championship Index Prior Weeks

SharpTusk is a featured blogger on Hog Database. He won "2009 Blog Of The Year" as voted by members of SportingNews.com and has posts referenced by local and national sports writers. Sharp began writing about Arkansas Razorbacks Football during the coaching change in 2007 and hasn't stopped. He has an eye for interesting stats, and an occasional penchant for creative writing. He's sure to keep you coming back for more.