Corn, soybeans, wheat watch planting pace, weather

Grains & Oilseeds Report

Corn: Through Monday, trade talked about a planting pace number anywhere between 50% and 75% complete. This number has been the key focus for the last five trading days. Ever since the last report came in at 28%, trade has kept full focus on today’s planting pace number. As a whole, the average number that analysts were looking for through today was 63% complete. It is important to keep in mind that almost all of last week’s selling was done on light volume, so we will want to remember that in case any buying shows up.

Weather updates were a little wetter Monday in the one- to five- and six- to 10-day forecasts. Originally there was a forecast for the first high-pressure ridge to move in over the Midwest in the six- to 10-day forecast, but that ridge was pushed back to the 11- to 15-day outlook now. It is common to see a weather scare bounce in June, and sure enough, the first Midwest high pressure ridge is forecast to arrive right on June 1. What more could the corn bulls want than to see the first high-pressure ridge not only right here near 500 support but also when there is potential to see some heat?

Corn bears have been light sellers and need to consider taking some short-term profits as corn continues to push close to 500. “Unknown” came in, buying 120,000 tonnes of new crop corn overnight, which also can be expected at this new-crop support area. That sale is not a large amount but it does show another reason to expect support at current levels. After waiting a full week, the much anticipated corn planting pace number came in at 71% today…Ryan Ettner

Soybeans: Soybean spread traders dominated Monday’s action again. The old-crop beans saw the best volume of the day in the last 15 minutes of the session as the July contract closed at the day session highs. The old-crop beans continue to find support due to the continued tight cash situation.

New-crop soybeans were under pressure due to the aggressive planting being done over the past week. The July/November spread made another new high at $2.42. The trade was looking for soybean plantings to come in at 24% tonight. The reported released after the close showed plantings right at the estimate of 24%. Last week plantings came in a disappointing 6%. The five-year average planting pace is 42%.

Even though the Chinese bird flu story has moved to the back burner, it is still a problem. Four more people have died due to the outbreak. The death toll is now 36 from 131 confirmed cases according to the World Health Organization. The U.N. health agency has been reported that no new cases have been reported since May 8.

Export inspections came in at a neutral 3.4 million bushels. The trade was looking for shipments to come in between 2.0 and 8.0 million bushels. The continued tight cash market should continue to provide support for the old-crop beans while the larger than expected U.S. new-crop carryout and projected record world numbers should continue to put pressure on the new-crop contract. We would recommend producers who have not sold new-crop beans make catch up sales on rallies. If corn plantings continue to lag due too much moisture we could see more bean acres being planted and this would just add more beans to the ending stock number…Jim McCormick

Wheat:

Weekly wheat inspections came in at 21.15M bu, a little better than the estimates that ranged from 18.0 21.0M bu.

EU wheat futures finished at an 11-month low due to improving crop conditions as a result of more favorable weather forecasts. Russia’s Institute for Agricultural Market Studies has increased its wheat crop estimate 2.5% to 53.8 mmt.

The wheat complex finished higher on the day after hitting technical support and a weak dollar. July KC wheat was able to rally after hitting technical support at 731’4 and Minneapolis wheat finished strong on news of flooding in areas of the Northwestern Plains.

Wheat Good-to-Excellent ratings were down 1% from last week at 31% for winter wheat. Spring wheat plantings are 67% completed versus the five-year average of 76%. Spring wheat plantings have gained some good ground from last week, but flooding in the Dakotas may support the Minneapolis wheat market.

July Chicago wheat was able to finish positive after starting lower on the day… Alex Bassett

About the Author

Ryan Ettner is a registered commodities broker and grains analyst at Allendale, Inc. Steve Georgy is a Sr. Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Jim McCormick is Senior Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA. www.allendale-inc.com