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March Madness 2014: 5 facts that could save your bracket

AAC UConn Louisville Basketball

A ladder stands under a uncut net following Louisville's 71-61 win over Connecticut in an NCAA college basketball game in the finals of the American Athletic Conference men's tournament Saturday, March 15, 2014, in Memphis, Tenn. Louisville coach Rick Pitino does not allow his teams to cut down nets after wins with the exception of the national championship. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Here are five facts that could keep you from making the wrong picks on your NCAA tournament bracket:

1. CINDERELLA USUALLY GOES HOME EARLY

After last season's wacky tournament, expect to see a lot more upsets on the brackets in your pool this year. So, you may want to go in the opposite direction. Only about 16 percent of higher-seeded teams lose in the NCAA tournament, according to BracketScience.com. In the 2013 tournament, nearly 21 percent of lower-seeded teams won thanks in large part to ninth-seeded Wichita State's run to the Final Four and 15th-seeded Florida Gulf Coast's trip to the Sweet Sixteen. But if you must pick some upsets, stick with the 11th or 12th seed. Since 1985, here are the winning percentages for teams seeded No. 10 or lower:

The following seeds have never been to a Final Four: 10, 12, 13, 14, 15 and 16. An 11th seed has made the Final Four three times, most recently Virginia Commonwealth in 2011.

Among the top eight seeds, the only seeds that have not won a national championship are fifth and seventh. Since 1985, when the tournament expanded to 64 teams, a No. 5 seed has made the Final Four six times, including a pair of them in 2010 (Butler and Michigan State), while a No. 7 seed last made the Final Four in 1984 when Virginia made it to the semifinals.

3. WATCH YOUR STEP ONTO THE BANDWAGON

There are a number of experts jumping on No. 4 seeds Michigan State and Louisville to win it all. History says those experts are wrong. Since 2000, a No. 1 seed has won the national title 10 times, a No. 3 seed three times and a No. 2 seed once. No fourth seed has won it all since Arizona in 1997.

Here's more on the tournament's No. 1 seeds, and some thoughts on dark horse candidates, from Basketball Insiders' Yannis Koutroupis:

4. KEY INJURIES

Don't forget to factor in injuries when filling out your bracket.

As you probably already know, Kansas will start tournament play without 7-foot freshman Joel Embiid (8.1 rebounds per game) because of a back injury that could sideline him for the duration. With Embiid, the Jayhawks allowed 67.1 points per game. Without Embiid, the Jayhawks have surrendered 75.6 ppg and lost two of five games.

BYU, meanwhile, lost its 6-foot-6 point guard Kyle Collinsworth (14 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.6 assists per game) when he tore his ACL in the West Coast Conference title game. Collinsworth had 15 points and eight assists in the 100-96 overtime loss to Oregon in December.

Colorado played its final 17 games without leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddie (torn ACL) and went 9-8.

5. GOOD FOLLOWS BAD

If you add the combined seeds for the 2013 Final Four (Louisville was a No. 1 seed, Syracuse and Michigan were No. 4 seeds, and Wichita State was a No. 9 seed), you get 18. Since 1985, that total exceeded 12 six times -- in 2011, 2010, 2006, 2000, 1992 and 1986. In all but one of those cases, at least two top seeds were in the Final Four the following year.