Friday, December 08, 2006

Make Me Believe it is Not True

GW Bush told us last week that he did not want get out of Iraq gracefully – apparently he was outraged by the suggestion that he could do anything gracefully. In Vietnam and Somalia we came out with our tails between our legs; in Korea and the Balkan War we never got out, as US troops still garrison both areas. Bush remains delusional on Iraq. He knows he cannot win the war, but he talks the talk of winning despite no evidence of success or impending victory. All the man wants to do is hang on by his finger nails until a new president relieves him of his duty. But no matter where or when he departs, his legacy will always remain the Iraq debacle; a political dagger in his heart. No wonder his father sobs in public.

Bush travels a lot. You have to wonder when he has time to reflect on issues. As his term of office continues to unwind, it becomes more apparent that he only thinks superficially. Based on his conduct, the best his spinners can say about him is that he is a profound man in an obscure way – emphasis is on obscure.

His foreign journeys are always fraught with goofiness. He recently returned from Vietnam where he publicly argued staying the course to victory in Iraq in a place where the US departure without victory has made the country flourish. Last week’s visit to Estonia was designed to squeeze more troops out of NATO to send to Afghanistan, but at least publicly he was transfixed by Iraq. From Tallinn he went to Amman Jordan to meet with Iraqi premier Maliki. It was a disaster... Maliki intentionally missed the first day of meetings, reluctantly appearing the second day to meet with Bush for couple hours. He left behind chaos in Iraq as his cabinet, members of his Shiite coalition, walked off the job to protest his visit with Bush. Concurrent with his visit with Bush, a leaked NSC memo written by Hadley based on personal observations on recent visit to Iraq, blasted Maliki's for incompetence. Through all this, Bush hypocritically swore fealty to Maliki, a man he hand picked. If Maliki lasts three more months in power, it will be surprising. Bush is already hedging his bets with the invitation of Abdul Aziz al Hakim to Washington this week.

By meeting with Hakim, Bush is dancing with a cobra. The Shiite cleric is a mainline Iranian torpedo aimed at US interests; he controls the largest pro Iranian bloc of Shiites in the Iraqi parliament. He wants Bush to destroy the Sunnis for Iran.... He has plotted with the independent minded Kurds to weaken the central government, to create an independent Shiastan from the 9 Shiite Iraqi provinces in the South. He has blamed the US for the destruction of the Shiite mosque in Samara. He said the American Ambassador to Iraq had given the terrorists a green light... And, a strong case can be made that characterizes him as an agent of greater Iran. His use to Bush is as a counter balance to Shiite militia leader el Sadr. Both Shiite leaders are quarreling because el Sadr’s power base is in Baghdad and there is little chance for him to receive post war oil revenues if Shiastan is established.

Some estimates put el Sadr’s military power at eight times what it was a few years ago when he managed to close the Coalitions Main Supply Route through the South, as he responded to US military pressure; Bremer even had to ration food at Coalition HQs. Maliki right now is his puppet on a string. The intrigue is fierce – way above the heads of our State department and the lost Defense Department. More confusion is also coming with the imminent departure of Zalmay Khalilzad, the US ambassador to Iraq. Replacement??? Maybe John Bolton wants the job. He would have a chance in the Green Zone to shoot the bullets instead of just making them.

Rumsfeld's Parthian shot on his departure from Defense was to drop a cover-your-ass snowflake that admits the grave situation in Iraq and offers options, none of which solve the problems. Since Rumsfeld was SecDef twice, wonder if he will be honored by two portraits or one in the Pentagon corridors. In either case, the paintings should displayed upside down as a sign of distress.

The Baker/Hamilton report on Iraq, at first analysis, is a punt. For the good of the country, Baker pushed the Israeli Palestine issue front and center and made the obvious case: it is the main source of the problem in the region. However, his massive advisor effort in Iraq may mitigate the defeat, but who is going to protect the advisors? As far as threatening the Iraqis by withdrawing aid and troops, this is absurd. Iraqis want us out yesterday. The only people hurt by this will be the 70,000 US contractors and their pals like Halliburton. If you need a withdrawal plan, ask for a truce and I bet you get the rice and rose shower when we march out like the one promised by the neocons, when we marched in. The Baker plan is continued occupation, but at a lower intensity. It - will - not - work. Iran will make certain of that. One thing for sure, the insurgency is getting more effective against US forces as the casualties mount. This is especially vexing as politicians wrangle in Washington to do everything to avoid pullout. Latest lie, number 12? – IF WE PULLOUT, THE REGION WILL BE INFLAMED. So what is new? Democrats better get off their asses, because the Republicans will not end the occupation – even Pat Buchanan has bought into the gibberish and deadly silliness.

Baker/Hamilton findings, despite undermining Bush's credibility on the Iraqi war, have in the end played into Bush's hands; bottom line is that the report calls for permanent presence of US forces in Iraq. That is what the Israeli lobby wants. Lee Hamilton predictably delivered for the Republicans under a smoke screen of bipartisanship.

Peter W Galbraith in his recent book, THE END OF IRAQ, indicated that Bush called Hakim in August, 2005 to ask for concessions for the Sunnis. Bush then asked Hakim, who is a dedicated exponent of Sharia (Islamic law), to honor women's rights. Noble thought, but demonstrated Bush's misconception of the whole Islamic culture; apparently, Bush still has not learned not to mess with other men's women. Hakim politely assured the President that they are sacred.

Mr. Bush should not be concerned over being considered graceful, as expectations for him to be so, are low. Colonel Robert E Bartos USA RET

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About Me

Colonel Robert E Bartos Ret US Army-served as Military Attache to Moscow and Belgrade-Chief of Foreign Intelligence on Army Dept Army Staff-commanded battalion in Vietman-member of President Reagan's transition team-advisor to Strategic Arms Delegation in Geneva--now spends time between Washington, DC and the Caribbean