ECRI Update: Flunking Recession 101

From dshort.com - Advisor PerspectivesDecember 28, 2012 - 1:26pm

Dec 28, 2012 Doug Short The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is now at 128.3 versus the previous week's 127.2. Likewise the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at 5.4, up from last week's 4.6. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 24th....ECRI can take some temporary solace in their use of the lagging Manufacturing and Trade Sales, which won't include November data until the end of January. But the November strength exhibited by Personal Incomes and Industrial Production certainly undermines their recession call. My take is that ECRI has flunked the "Recession 101" course.More...