Levi, thank you as always for your commentary. I hate to be a pessimist (and focus so intently on one model) but the HWRF recent runs have me very concerned as a NYC area resident. Earlier today you had tweeted to not look at the 12z run and I was just hoping you might provide a little more color on your reaction to that model’s output today.

It’s one model run from a model that routinely forecasts insane things. There is no reason to believe such a wild forecast at this point. We look for consistency from multiple models to define the most likely outcome.

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