The futures of some seriously big Formula One hitters, including Mercedes team
principal Ross Brawn, FIA race director Charlie Whiting and Italian tyre
manufacturer Pirelli, will all be subject to feverish speculation in Paris
on Thursday when the FIA’s International Tribunal convenes for the first
time to rule on whether Mercedes or Pirelli broke the rules by running a
2013 car in a ‘private’ tyre test in Barcelona last month.

Tyre test row: Ross Brawn's future at Mercedes will be the subject of fierce speculation during the Paris tribunalPhoto: GETTY IMAGES

No one knows quite what to expect from today's hearing. The International Tribunal - which is completely independent of the governing body - was only established following Jean Todt's election as FIA president in 2009.

The FIA could not even answer questions yesterday as to the make-up of today's panel, which will consist of a minimum of three of the 12 members of the International Tribunal whose president is Edwin Glasgow QC, one of the leading lawyers in the Bloody Sunday inquiry.

What is clear is that the stakes are high. There have been the usual leaked threats that Mercedes or Pirelli might quit the sport if the penalties meted out are too severe.

In the case of Mercedes that would seem highly unlikely given the recent level of investment in their Formula One programme, including the signing of Lewis Hamilton on a £60million three-year deal and the even greater funds pumped into next year's new 1.6litre engine.

Pirelli are on thinner ice, having grown frustrated by the constant wrangling in the sport, the criticism levelled at them for developing fast-degrading tyres (which they were asked to do) and their inability to properly test new compounds given the ban on in-season testing. It was this farcical situation that led to the present imbroglio.

Mercedes' rivals are adamant that the Brackley team, contrary to their protestations, spied an opportunity to cheat and derived a clear advantage from the three-day test.

The FIA's sporting regulations clearly state that using a current car to test is outlawed, but the situation is complicated by the fact that the governing body has a separate supplier contract with Pirelli, which allows them to do 1000km tests with current teams using a "representative car". Today's hearing will have to determine whether the Sporting Regulations supersede Pirelli's supplier contract.

To make matters more intriguing, Mercedes are believed to have written permission from the FIA's race director Charlie Whiting - acting on the guidance of the FIA's lawyers in Geneva - clearing them to use their 2013 car.

The lines of communication between Brawn, who has taken full responsibility for Mercedes' actions, Whiting and Pirelli will undoubtedly be closely examined.

We could have a situation whereby the tribunal finds the FIA itself culpable. This, at least, would prove the independence of Todt's disciplinary system. Indeed, there are suggestions the Frenchman would not be displeased by the opportunity to get shot of Whiting, who is seen as Ecclestone's man, although it would be an extremely risky move by Todt to take on the sport's CEO in election year.

Any sanctions imposed - and they could be anything from a simple fine, to a points deduction, to disqualification from the championship - are almost certain to be contested. Mercedes, for whom Brawn has taken full responsibility, would surely appeal. As for Pirelli, they do not believe they are even obliged to turn up today [Thurs] and are positively chomping at the bit to take the matter to a civil court.

Pirelli are using the same lawyer, Dominique Dumas, who represented former Renault chief engineer Pat Symonds in the Paris High Court in 2009 when he had his 'Crashgate' ban overturned.