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Gulf of Mexico Tropical Disturbance to Fuel Soaking Rainfall in Texas, Southwestern Louisiana Early This Week

June 18, 2018

An area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico is sending tropical moisture into coastal Texas and southwestern Louisiana early this week, producing numerous showers and thunderstorms that will provide some drought relief but could also cause flooding.

Enhanced satellite imagery currently shows the unsettled weather over the Gulf of Mexico, associated with a surface trough of low pressure and an area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere.

Enhanced Satellite

This area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity has been given a low chance for development as it moves toward Texas early this week, as environmental conditions are not favorable for the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Tropical Development Chances

What's most likely to occur along the western Gulf Coast is that a surge of moisture from this weather system will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the first half of this week, particularly on the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts.

Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected through Wednesday, with some locations in coastal Texas possibly receiving 5 to 10 inches.

While the rain is bad news for vacationers along the coast, the incoming downpours are beneficial to this region of the country, where abnormally dry or drought conditions have developed, according to the latest Drought Monitor. Drought conditions have increased in areas of coastal Texas and Louisiana over the past few weeks, and an area of extreme drought emerged in the latest update.

The good news is that the ground will be able to absorb much of the rainfall given the recent dry conditions, especially if the rain comes in waves with breaks in between. However, even with drought conditions, areas that see repetitive bouts of showers and thunderstorms could experience localized flooding.

Some forecast guidance is also indicating that the area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere could linger through late-week over northern Mexico and southern Texas. If this were to happen, then heavier amounts of rain could threaten parts of south Texas, leading to increasingly saturated soils and a higher risk of flooding in that part of the state.

We'll continue to monitor the latest forecast trends and provide updates and additional details on weather.com through early this week.

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