You don't win a Nobel Peace Prize for nothing. And while I think everyone with half a brain around the levers of globalization, modern conflict, and the worldwide pain in the ass that has become our financial system does realize, by now, that Barack Obama wins a lot points for being a likable leader, the fact remains: America was a very unlikable place three hundred and sixty-six days ago. By my count, though, the young president doesn't just get points for being the anti-Bush when it comes to settling the volatile waters on shores not called the Chesapeake. Without pulling any punches, then, here's a blow-by-blow guide — with an admittedly subjective 1-to-10 scale (higher is better) — of how far Obama's really come toward gaining ground in the places that matter most.

Flash Point No. 1: The "Recovering" Economy

Universally vilified as the proximate cause of last year's financial panic, America has worked aggressively under Obama and succeeded on three fronts: an unprecedented stimulus package (yielding 3.5 percent GDP growth this quarter); a one-fell-swoop stimulus for globalization's "board of directors" (expanding from the G8 to the G-20); and a rough consensus for a global "rebalancing" (spending less in the West and more in the East). Obama has played a bad hand masterfully well, but I wouldn't exactly call us recovered yet.

America's Leverage in 2008: 4

Leverage in 2009: 5

Flash Point No. 2: Risen China

By the end of the Bush years, American foreign policy consisted of asking China for help as our strategic tie-down in Iraq and Afghanistan made clear the limits of U.S. "hard" power. China's "soft" stock skyrocketed with the economic crisis: its public stimulus spending dwarfed the rest of the world's effort — save ours — so that Beijing's bosses can take credit for roughly three-quarters of the world's growth through 2011. Upshot? China's authoritarian capitalism saves globalization in the short run. Obama's main achievement? Not pissing off America's banker.

Leverage in 2008: 5

Leverage in 2009: 2

Flash Point No. 3: Crumbling Afghanipakistan

The forgotten front now receives prime billing, but with renewed attention comes resurrected Boomer angst over Vietnam-like quagmires. Afghanistan's botched national election couldn't have come at a worst moment: Just as Joe Biden pressures Obama to shift America's focus — and funding — to faltering Pakistan, Afghanistan's self-styled "Gandhi," Hamid Karzai, has offered every indication of being too corrupt and incompetent to serve as an effective partner going forward. Result? America lowballs where its leverage is declining (Kabul) and plusses-up where its leverage is virtually nonexistent (Islamabad). Call it a wash.

Leverage in 2008: 2

Leverage in 2009: 2

Flash Point No. 4: Enriching Iran and North Korea

Obama is stuck in a rut with the world's nuclear bad boys. On the one hand, Beijing isn't all that interested in destabilizing either regime through tougher sanctions, which may not have made sense anyway. Likewise, Moscow enables Iran's rogue status as the preferred supplier of nuclear technology and military hardware. That leaves Obama, after he couldn't do much for this year's post-election morass in Tehran, trying to delay its inevitable achievement of A-to-Z nuclear capabilities. But two can play that game, as Tehran's constant foot-dragging on the current enrichment proposal proves. Eventually, Israel will defend its regional WMD monopoly, making Obama's utopian efforts to abolish nukes all the more irrelevant.

Leverage in 2008: 3

Leverage in 2009: 2

Flash Point No. 5: Failing Iraq

America's declining influence inside the fake state that is Iraq has now become inevitable and irreversible. Our drawdown will trigger more sectarian violence. The surge, while successful, didn't unify the nation — it merely delayed inevitable fights (Shia-Sunni, Arab-Kurd) as all sides ended up preferring their chances once the Americans stop being the strongest "tribe." Team Obama has added nothing to Bush and Cheney's meager efforts at regionalizing Iraq's security issues, giving meddlesome Iran and counterweights Turkey and Saudi Arabia a free hand at influence peddling. Fortunately, Iran's internal meltdown proceeds apace.

Leverage in 2008: 8

Leverage in 2009: 5

Flash Point No. 6: Pestering Russia

Putin couldn't have been more contemptuous of lame-duck Bush, but his clumsy intervention in Georgia, while it halted NATO's expansion, has accelerated Russia's steady decline. Western money was already fleeing, thanks to the Kremlin's ham-handed renationalization program, but the Georgian affair boosted the flow just in the time for last fall's financial collapse — and oil-price decline — to have maximum impact. Its swagger suitably discounted, Moscow welcomed Obama's recasting of the European missile shield and now speaks openly of wanting to help on Af-Pak — at a price, of course.

Leverage in 2008: 2

Leverage in 2009: 4

Flash Point No. 7: The Still-Warming Climate

The good news: Obama convinced the world that America now takes global warming seriously, restoring some leadership that was decidedly absent (or whatever's more than absent) under Bush. The bad news: that and a Euro should get the president a cup of coffee at next month's UN conference in Copenhagen, where we can expect China and India to go their own way on regional accords that kill any chance at a global CO2 agreement. Obama will eventually sign a less important, more expensive congressional bill, but that'll just make America another great power with a target number.

Flash Point No. 9: The Isolated Failed States

The Bush Doctrine self-destructed thanks to that administration's drawn-out bungling of post-war Iraq and Afghanistan. While Obama came in with suitably idealistic talk about the "good war" in Afghanistan and America's moral responsibility in places like Sudan, it has assiduously avoided picking up any new nation-building responsibilities. Hell, the administration can't even be bothered to find someone to run its Agency for International Development. By default, the Chinese model of national development continues to grow in stature across developing regions.

Leverage in 2008: 1

Leverage in 2009: Less than zero

Flash Point No. 10: Rebranding America

Most Americans have little idea of how far our nation's worldwide standing had fallen by the end of the Bush administration; no matter how bad you thought it had gotten, it was worse. Over a series of prominent speeches — Prague for nukes, the National Archives for torture, Cairo for Arab perception, Ghana for not much at all — Obama sought to apologize to the planet and, in the process, struck many of our citizens as a bit too self-debasing. But as Obama's stunning Nobel win demonstrates, a little saying sorry can go a long way toward mending the many fences America erected between itself and the world since 9/11. This month's looming final word on military commissions might be an unexpected wrench, but given how aggressively Obama has sought to rebalance America's relationship with the world, his global popularity is a strategic asset that should never be — to coin a phrase — misunderestimated.

Leverage in 2008: 0

Leverage in 2009: 10

So... change?

Total American Leverage in 2008: 28

Total Leverage in 2009: 38

That's some fuzzy math, alright, but you can't say things aren't better — and neither can the rest of the world. Even if we didn't get the Olympics.

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