Comments

…where would montero play? would they really give up on brandon belt already? It would have to be a team with a close to ready or in the majors SS or CF elite hitter. I feel like Han-ram for Lincecum would make a lot of sense and would be the coolest blockbuster trade in a while

For instance, let’s say the Giants decided to ask the Yankees for Jesus Montero and Eduardo Nunez, and just to make sure they didn’t receive a better offer from Boston, they also would like New York to take some of Aubrey Huff’s remaining $12 million contract off their hands.

Yes, let’s say the Giants asked. Brian Cashman would then laugh in their faces and hang up the phone. You’re basically saying that Cashman will give up six years of Montero (incredible value surplus) to pay Lincecum roughly $30 million/year for two years, which was basically his market rate at his Cy Young-winning peak. No effing way. Say what you will about Montero not having proven himself yet, but players who hit as well as he does as young as he is do not bust. The only pitcher with the combination of cost control and quality I’d even consider moving Montero for is Clayton Kershaw. Even somebody like Felix Hernandez makes too much money to provide as much surplus value as Montero will over the next six years.

Better yet, entice someone to take on Zito’s anvil contract by pairing him with Belt for a mid-ceiling guy or average big-league regular. You take a ton of money off and leave first open for Huff to slot and sprinkled with Sandoval or Posey, who frankly are going to need the rest there anyway.

Belt’s a nice prospect but the Giants were still contenders without him producing a whole lot (.225/.306/.412). No one can just hope to pull off another Vernon Wells miracle but by attaching Zito to a hyped, top prospect, you’ll find a taker. With Zito’s contract clear, you’ve got your extra 20 mil to spend this year and the next 2-3. Better flexibility to sign a FA bat or lock down Lince/Cain. Way better than giving up an ace to chance on what Belt can become and what Zito can salvage.

As a Yankees fan, I would love that trade. I’m not impressed with Nunez, and though Montero is a beast, I think Lincecum would add so much to the offense-heavy team that it would more than make up for Montero’s upside.

I think you’re over estimating the value of Montero by a LONG SHOT! Sure he’s young, cost controlled and has a lot of talent. But the Yankee’s don’t receive surplus value out of cost controlled players near as much as other teams do b/c of their budget. Also where is Montero going to play? You’re not moving Teixeira, they don’t like him as an everyday catcher. Are you just going to use him as a DH? Will he even put up the same numbers as a full time DH (not all hitters do). Also saying players like that don’t bust is quite a statement. Plenty of players bust within their first couple years in the league, top prospects or not. I’m not saying he won’t hit or that he won’t be an offensive star, but I’m not sold on any young player as much as you on Montero. I’m just not sure your points are as valid for a team with the circumstances of the Yankees. They need pitching in a big way and much more so than offense. I think Cashman makes that deal in a heartbeat. In reality I wouldn’t make that deal if I were Sabean without more being included.

It almost sounds too good to be true but I love the creativity. I was thinking about the plan you penned out for the Mariners to acquire Votto and was hoping you’d come up with something as bold for the Giants.

So if this is the Bold Plan A, what do you have cooked up for the real world Plan B?

I actually doubt the Giants would even consider that deal. Montero has great promise, but as a DH or 1B there’s a strong chance he’ll never be an elite player at his position. When elite pitchers like Lincecum are dealt with even just a half season left on their contract at market rate they generally return at least one prospect close to Montero’s level. With 2 years left I actually think Lincecum would get a bigger return than just Montero and Nunez.

You’re a team with a bottomless payroll, a dearth of pitching and a valuable position prospect with nowhere to play, and you’re holding out for Kershaw or Felix because Tim Freakin’ Lincecum isn’t good enough for you?

Seriously, this is the most I have ever seen anyone overvalue Montero. Kershaw the only pitcher you would give him up for? Insane. The guy had an .814 OPS this year in AAA! I expect him to be good, even very good, but you make it seem like he is a can’t-miss soon-to-be top 5 hitter in baseball.

If I’m Cashman, I jump on that opportunity on the condition that there’s a long-term extension as part of the trade. Then I turn around and trade Betances and something to the Royals (who desparately need young close-to MLB pitching) for good ol’ Billy Butler. Now I have my young, cheap DH, get to use Romine at C, and use big-game Timmy Jim to sit at #2 under CC.

“They play in AT&T Park, a place that can make any generic right-hander look fantastic. Whether it’s park effects, the influence of Dave Righetti, or some magical being hanging out in the air in San Francisco, the Giants have a long history of being able to turn mediocre pitchers into home run preventing machines, and in turn, get far better performance out of them than you’d expect.”

The Giants certainly have the ability to put a fast guy in CF. Take your pick from the minor league talents Justin Christian, Tyler Graham, Darren Ford. Andres Torres certainly hit like a minor leaguer last year. They could bring up Peguero. Anything to keep the seat warm for Gary Brown. But who know how long it will take for Brown to jump from AA to the bigs.

I have been thinking similarly. Lincecum is at a fantastically high value, and the Giants could target NYY, BOS, CHI, PHI, ATL, NYM, CHX, etc. Lincecum should easily bring a high value starting player, a high value prospect and a strong pitching prospect. The Wheeler for Beltran trade was absurdly bad, so I have no faith Sabean could pull off such a high profile trade and walk back with the goods, but this is clearly in the Giants best interest.

I prefer Cain to Lincecum for the next 5 years, Cain is very unlikely to “break down”, where I see Lincecum as being likely, to highly likely to break down in the next couple years, with that small frame and mediocre work habits.

The team doesn’t have a bottomless payroll, and Montero absolutely has a place to play for at least the next couple of years. I might have sounded a little hyperbolic in my post, but I don’t think it’s particularly controversial that Lincecum isn’t a $30 million premium over Montero for the next two years, considering that for this to be the case he’d have to return to his ’08-’09 level and that Montero would have to basically be a replacement-level player. If you think that either of these two scenarios would be an expectation, much less a likelihood, you might want to re-tweak your projection system.

IMO, the dominant issue in San Francisco won’t be wins and losses or getting a hitter that can prosper in AT&T, if such a rare animal exists. The issue will be behinds in seats, and this staff, particularly Lincecum puts them there. This a privately financed park with a big mortgage and a group of owners who, at least in the ear term, want to take money out of the organization. Those two features will keep lincecum in place until past the time the organization probably ought to move him. In any case, if Huff hits .280 with 25-30 HR again, with that pitching, the win the NL West again. If they get in the post season, any team you know want to face that staff in October?

When elite pitchers like Lincecum are dealt with even just a half season left on their contract at market rate they generally return at least one prospect close to Montero’s level.

Name one. Sabathia was traded for Matt LaPorta. Cliff Lee was traded for Justin Smoak (and the Mariners took a lesser deal than the Yanks’ offer of Montero and spare change, back when Montero was farther out and not as valuable). Roy Halladay didn’t return any A-prospects. And none of those guys were making Lincecum’s money, nor did any of them come with dead weight attached to them the way Dave has proposed the Yanks’ take on Aubrey Huff. With the incredible amount of long-term money the Yanks have tied up in Sabathia, Teixeira, A-Rod, Burnett and Jeter, the Yankees can’t afford to dump $30 million/year AND one of the best prospects in baseball on any pitcher, even Tim Lincecum.

At least come up with a trade the Giants would do before posting this idea. Lincecum for Montero and Nunez is a horrible trade. If they trade the face of their franchise the Giants are going to want a proven player/superstar in return.

Your examples of LaPorta and Smoak are exactly why the Giants won’t even consider dealing Lincecum for essentially just Montero. Those guys were both at least as good of prospects as Montero is now when they were dealt and they were dealt for pitchers with a lot less time under contract left. Neither player has yet come close to meeting expectations. Yes, Lincecum is owed a lot but its still significantly less than what he’d get on the open market. The point is he’s a proven elite player and even at 18-20 mil per year, 2 years of Lincecum is worth a lot more than one very promising, but largely unproven, and perhaps position-less, hitting prospect. If Montero had a larger sample size of being a great hitter at the major league level and still had a lot of cheap service time left it would be a different story, but as of now he doesn’t.

What should also be mentioned is that Lincecum actually pitches better away fro AT&T

Home 2011- ERA 3.07
Away 2011-ERA 2.38
so much for ATT being a pitchers park.

The Giants fans would be upset. I would stop being a giants fan.
There is no pitcher in baseball that is more fun to watch.
They can keep kershaw who basically has had one very good year. Timmeh has been the best player for the first four years of his career in almost ever.

Articles like this make me nauseous, what is the point of being a fan at this point? Lincecum is our son he came through the organization, watching his first start was one of the proudest days of my life. Seeing him lead the giants into the playoffs for the first time in seven years and then dominate the way he did, was a feeling ill never be able to describe.
As the rays have shown it’s not enough to win to become a dominant franchise, you have to connect with your fans, give them heroes and memories. Maybe trading lincecum for some super package ultimately does help the giants win a few more games 3 years from now it would still destroy the giants.

A peaceful, passive riot mind you, but we’d be really mad and would totally think about breaking shit. I would personally shake my fist in angst for hours. Then I’d get stoned and just be bummed out for a while that Timmy was gone.

When Matt LaPorta was traded, he was a 23 y.o. in AA. When he was Montero’s age, he was still in college. When Justin Smoak was traded, he was a 23 y.o OPSing .860 as a AAA repeater (or ten points less than Montero posted as a 20 y.o. in AAA the first time around). LaPorta had never been in the majors at all, and Smoak had shown a disappointing debut – Montero’s debut would only help his trade value, especially combined with his prospect pedigree. He was ranked 3rd and 4th among all prospects last year by BA and Keith Law, respectively, and 4th/10th the year before. Smoak only cracked the top ten on Keith’s list once, and never rose above 13th for BA. LaPorta was never a top-20 prospect. But sure, keep on claiming that Smoak and LaPorta were in any way, shape or form comparable to what Montero is now.

Also, I’d think about it at $18-20 million/year, but that’s not what this article is premised on. Dave thinks Lincecum gets $20 million this year, presumably more in fourth-year arbitration next year, plus Huff’s dead-weight $12 million. That’s a lot closer to $28-30 million/year.

If he’s a 6 win player, he’s worth $30 M or so on the FA market. If he’s going to receive $20-22 M, his surplus value is only about $8 M or so. He’s not worth that much more than Montero and Nunez. Get Boston and Texas involved and maybe you could squeeze another solid prospect out of one but the hefty salary will eat away a lot of his surplus value.

Sure can’t. Of course, I’d take a 21 y.o. OPSing .814 in AAA with a history of having done better over a 23 y.o. OPSing .859 in AAA having the best year of his career. Also, September counts too. I know it’s chic to only look at the five months that help your point and ignore the year before or the month after that slash a hole in it, but you really should try to avoid that.

the whole organizationwould be so stupid to do that!
were talking about TIM LINCECUM:
2-time CY Young Award winner
led a team to a World Series Championship.
you cant just trade a guy like that!!!!!!!!!!!
hes special and no doubt, unique.
FOR ALL YOU GIANTS FANS OUT THERE WHO ARE WORRIED SICK OVER THIS ARTICLE BECAUSE YOU LOVE TIMMY SO MUCH, DONT WORRY ANYMORE. I CALLED BOCHY AND SAID THAT HE WOULD NEVER LET SABEAN DO THAT TO THE KID. AND IM DEAD SERIOUS. AND IF ANY YALL ASK ME FOR HIS #, IM NOT GONNA GIVE IT TO YOU!!!!!!!!!!

A) He doesn’t need to be a superstar for this to be a bad trade, primarily because of the prohibitive financial cost of acquiring Lincecum along with Huff and the fact that anything he provides over replacement value is surplus for at least three years.

B) I’m going to go with a professional scouting opinion of his bat that has him rated a little higher than just “plus.” Take it away, KLaw!

We can all agree on one thing about Montero: He’s going to hit. And by that, I mean he’s going to hit for average, get on base and have huge power — the type of offensive profile that plays anywhere on the field and in the lineup. Montero is a physical beast, the rare front-foot hitter who can generate big-time power, reminiscent of Frank Thomas who was, himself, also a patient and disciplined hitter.

Dave, you certainly hit a nerve with the SF faithful. I doubt many even read the article. I agree with the premise: if SF trades Lincecum for some solid MLB-ready hitters they will do better than not. However, Nunez and Montero? I think Montero is going to be an absolutely stellar hitter, but Nunez is a fill-in piece. I’d say Swisher, who I think would fit in SF’s lineup well, and Montero, with NYY picking up a 1/3 or more of Swisher’s salary would be more fair. Doubt NYY do that though.

Some of my favorites of the Giants homer crowd (not saying all SFG fans are like this):

“if Huff hits .280 with 25-30 HR again, with that pitching, the win the NL West again”

– Yeah, and if my grandmother had wheels, she’d be a trolley.

“Lincecum is our son he came through the organization, watching his first start was one of the proudest days of my life.”

When you’re comparing value, you need to look at who Lincecum who be replacing, as well as who would be filling in for Montero. So, it is not a straight WAR calculation between those involved in the trade.

As the Mets have shown, it’s not enough to connect with your fans, give them heroes and memories. You have to win, and become a dominant franchise. Maybe signing Lincecum to a 8 year, 180 million dollar deal does help the Giants sell a few more tickets now, but 5 years they would be cash strapped and hard-pressed to field a contender.

Well Dave, I agree with you that SFG should at least consider trading Lincecum, given his astronomical value in a seller’s market.

However, I wouldn’t think Montero and Nunez would be nearly enough. If that’s all the market dictates, then I wouldn’t pull the trigger. Having a Carlos Lee type is nice, but Montero will be a liability in so many ways.

What about the Rangers? They have Andrus, might be willing to build a package around Jurickson Profar.

In a general sort of way, certainly. But players can be worth more or less to a particular team based on other circumstances, like if said team is in an extremely tight competition for a playoff spot. If the difference between Lincecum and the next best player available is (lets say) 2 wins, but those 2 wins increase that team’s playoff odds from 50 to 70% (again, making up numbers), and there’s no easy way to make up those wins elsewhere on the roster, then that upgrade is worth more to the team than the absolute difference in value would suggest.

Exactly how that calculus works out in this specific case, I’m not sure.

Um, you know after Timmy’s rookie season, after he got a “flu” sometime between touching down in NYC for the All-Star Game and game time, Timmy for Alex Rios was openly floated by sources within the Giants front office – with breakability and “work-ethic” being the stated reasons.

Surplus value is only important when you have finite financial resources. The Yankees have infinite (for all practical baseball purposes) monies, and as such only care about absolute value; they could give a shit if they are loosing out on “surplus” – they make it back and more if they make the W.S.

For sure. And I hope it’s clear that I’ve never claimed that Jesus Montero is better than Tim Lincecum in any absolute sense. But the Yankees are currently committed to $174 million in guaranteed contracts for next season before even considering what Martin, Hughes, Chamberlain, Logan, Gardner and Robertson make in arbitration. Add on Lincecum’s (presumed) $20 million and Huff’s $10 million, and that brings the Yanks’ payroll guarantees to $204 million. Taking MLBTR’s arbitration estimates would run the Yanks’ payroll to $222 million, $15 million more than they paid last year and $9 million more than they paid in 2010, the highest payroll they’ve ever had. This does not include a DH, a fourth outfielder, a competent caddy for A-Rod/Jeter, any rotation depth whatsoever or a LOOGY. Lincecum projects (by a simple 4/3/2/1 Marcel) to be a 5-win pitcher next year. The guy he probably replaces is Freddy Garcia, who likely comes back for roughly $5-6 million and 1.6 wins. Montero will likely be better than whatever scrap-heap DH they picked up, since they won’t be able to spend any money on the spot if they get Lincecum. At this point, the Yankees have spent an extra $25 million to gain maybe two wins, which can probably be made up for far less than $25 million by tweaking the bullpen, the rotation depth and the reserves. The trade doesn’t just not make sense in a vacuum, it doesn’t make sense for this Yankees team.

The Yankees payroll is roughly the same as it was in 2005. Acquiring Lincecum would, as I’ve laid out below, probably push their payroll $15-20 million past that level for a gain that can likely be made up for much cheaper. But sure, let’s ignore that evidence and just pretend the Yankees can afford whatever they want.

No, they wouldn’t. Trading Swisher to the Giants would make sense from the Yankees’ standpoint, but straight-up for Matt Cain. Swisher projects to be a 3.8-win player next year (again, simple Marcel) while Cain projects at 4.4. They’re both in the last year of their contracts, with Cain making $5 million more. That is a fair trade that fills holes for both teams.

I don’t remember Bochy calling him out. Link it if you’ve got it, but I’ve never heard that. Lincecum is in outstanding physical shape. As for being a pothead, crazy as it sounds, people who smoke pot can actually lead a normal life, work hard and be successful as long as it is done in moderation and it doesn’t interfere with their profession. I happen to be a shining example of just that.

Except starting pitching is more difficult to find than outfield help. I think the Yankees would have to kick in more than Swisher for Cain. And honestly, I believe San Francisco and New York would both rather obtain players through free agency before trading away major pieces of their ballclubs.

Scarcity is accounted for in the WAR calculation, but in case that doesn’t convince you, Swisher is 20th among all OF in WAR over the last three seasons and 7th among RF (those rankings drop to 19th and 6th if you don’t count Zobrist as a RF). Cain is 17th among SP. Obviously, since there are more SP than there are starting OF, Cain is more valuable despite being ranked near Swisher, but I wasn’t claiming they were equal – that’s what the $5 million in salary difference represents, $5 million the Giants could use to fix one of their other areas of need.

And while it’s true that both clubs would rather acquire players through FA, those players would probably come with a higher premium in terms of both years and salary, and both teams have the internal options to partially replace the players they would be trading. It’s a classic “trade from strength” move for both teams.

Why would you suggest that Timmy is more likely to break down over Cain? Timmy has never had health issues while Cain has only had mild injury issues. Neither has a max effort delivery. Timmy has a relative good body only lacking size but what he lacks in size his mechanics compensate for. Cain is just about prototypical in size in build. SF is closer to “home” for Timmy where as Cain might be more comfortable in the south or the east coast.

Personally I would trade Cain over Timmy as Timmy is also more marketable than Cain is as well. I enjoy watching both pitch but Timmy more and its not close for me.

Surely you mean Expos, not Sox, watching Pedro leave was the real crime. Plus there was Larry Walker. And John Wetteland. And Ken Hill. And Marquis Grissom. I could go on, but it’s time for my therapy session.

Yes, it is… and I just demonstrated how that creates a match. In fact, there’s probably more CO scarcity on the market this offseason than SP. Carlos Beltran is really the only acceptable corner outfielder available, while Yu Darvish, Mark Buehrle, C.J. Wilson and Edwin Jackson are all quality starters available (and in the Giants’ case, Kuroda and Vazquez might be playable too).

I think Timmy is going to run into problems as his body ages and he becomes less flexible. Don’t know for sure when that is going to happen, but his delivery depends on an unusual degree of flexiblity in his body. Gymnasts are usually done by their early 20’s, right?

The Giants may have great pitching at the MLB level, but the cupboard is bare on the farm above the rookie leagues. Any trade involving Timmy or Cainer has to have young pitching coming back. The other part of this scenario that doesn’t fit is Montero. I agree he is a fine hitter, but he’s not a fit on an NL team.

The one scenario I’ve thought of is a package of Montero, Banuelos and Betances with the Giants flipping Montero to an AL team for a CF or SS.

People, it is not just the WAR and dollars per WAR. There are leverages, supply and demand function, and even winner’s curse in play. On paper Lincecum is worth maybe a B level prospect and not much more, but in reality he may pull in more than just an A level prospect. There are multiple teams in baseball who can go from non-contender to contender just by acquiring Lincecum. Think the Reds. They have really high marginal value on a proven ACE. C.J. Wilson is good but the mileage on his arm is worrisome. The sudden jump in IP coupled with his recent performance strike concerns into all GMs’ heart. Think another team like the RedSox. If they acquire yet another multi-million dollars arm in C.J. and Lincecum(it will empty their system totally), the Yankees (more like Brain Cashman) is forced to make plays at least to the media to drive up the price. Yankees fans will be unforgiving if Cashman just stays down without a move. It means that the Giants has all the leverage to pull of a deal similar to Matt Garza who was dealt last year. And that was a pretty good trade.

On the one hand, I guess I get it from a standpoint of maximizing future value times unknowns with Lincecum. On the other hand, as an Angels fan, I hear echoes of Buzzie Bavasi and his catastrophic decision to unload Nolan Ryan, quipping (with epic falsehood) that he could sign a pair of 8-7 pitchers to replace his 16-14 record (from 1979).

Seriously when has the issue of “surplus value”, or anything else for that matter, ever stopped the Yankees from doing everything they can to get a guy they covet? If the Yankees cared about it that much they wouldn’t sign Type A free agents every year and forfeit draft picks. The team does have INFINITE resources. The Yanks could easily support a $300 payroll. The reason why they have a self-imposed cap is because they wanna toe the line. If they start trotting out a $300 mil team, the fans, the media, the other owners and other connected baseball people would cry for a reform of the system. At the very least it would cause a stir and that’s in the best interest of nobody (well maybe the media). Everyone is happy and making money and the yankees know they already have a massive advantage and don’t wanna blow that. The last thing they want is more guys like Attanasio complaining that there should be a salary cap.

CC, Cliff Lee and Halladay, are all very poor comps. Two of the were signifigantly older. CC was a pure rental so that hurt Cleveland. Also, LaPorta was considered a big time prospect even if his status that time was a notch or two below what Montero’s is now. Doc had 10 & 5 rights so he was able to dictate his trade to Philly killing Toronto’s leverage. Lee was also a rental for the M’s and Philly.

There isn’t a good comp because two time CYA winners that are as young as Timmy and under team control are never made available. The numbers that he’s put up to start his career are stunning. The Mets didn’t deal Gooden four years in. The Sox didn’t deal Clemmens early. The Cubs would not have dealt Prior if he had stayed healthy. The Cards traded Steve Carlton when he was very young and coming off a big year. How did that one turn out? My point is that guys who dominate major league hitters immediatly upon entering the league the way Timmy has are extremely rare. The yankees will give up Montero and whatever else it takes in a nanosecond to get Timmy.

This is why stat-heads are so hard to tolerate. If you think SF can improve itself by trading Lincecum for Nunez and Montero, then I want to know when poker night is at your house. I’d trade Swisher, Nunez and Montero for Lincecum and Huff in a heart beat. Swisher is 31 and in the last year of his contract, Montero doesn’t have a position on the Yankee team (DH at 21? c’mon), and Nunez stinks (iron glove, scattershot arm, base-running foul ups constantly, no bat). For NY getting an elite pitcher for this mess is a no-brainer. The main points though, are that Sabean is incompetent and this team is so desperate for hitting folks are thinking about trading a Cy Young pitcher for hitters like Swisher and Montero. Go for it! Yankee fans will thank you for the next 10 years.

It’s been mentioned at least once above, but Lincecum for Votto does feel like a natural. Yeah. Votto’s lower risk than Lincecum, but top pitchers seem to get almost as much as top hitters in the FA market so clearly teams aren’t really discounting much for that risk differential. A B prospect can even things out if needed.

First thing I’m a Yankee fan. Second thing is any baseball fan/Yankee fan who thinks trading for Lincecum is a bad idea is on crack or just plain stupid. In fact I’d go as far to say those two & a minor league pitcher & a low A position player for Lincecum. If Jimenez commanded as much as he did Timmy is worth much more… He’s proven. And for those who stick their nose in the air & wouldn’t give up Montero, you’re drinking the koolaid Cashman has been spinning for 6 yrs. don’t be surprised if a big trade comes along in Dec which has him as a center piece. Our pitching sux

with the money saved from the trade, lock up cain and bumgarner for next five, sign vogelsong for next three, and pick up Mark Buehrle for 3, maybe Buehrle teaches Jo Sanchez a thing or two and you still have a brilliant rotation.

Machado is a future franchise player. imagine in two years an infield of Posey C, Sandoval 3B, Belt 1B, and Panik 2B) thats something dynamic and positive for Giants fans to think about. Jones is 27 and could slot over to left when Brown is ready for center.

Except last year when they took Smoak over Montero, Jesus was in the middle of an .870 OPS in AAA as a 20 YO, while now he is coming off a .814 OPS in AAA as a 21 YO and proved he is no catcher…. how is he more valuable now?

I mean Cain is only four years younger, has been playing in the Majors for 1 less year and has been worth 2 more WAR than Swisher so far, even though I’m not WARs biggest fan. A corner outfielder can be replaced easily considering nearly all OFs are COFs. Even then their production can be replaced by mix and matching 8 other position players. A starting pitcher cannot be replaced by anyone other than a starting pitcher. Considering how the Yankees are more adept at finding bats in FA than anyone else and how huge an improvement Cain would be over Garcia I don’t see your argument.

“and have enough left over to bring in a pitcher to replace Lincecum in the rotation.” <— did you actually type that? There is no pitcher out there that can replace Lincecum in the rotation. If they traded Tim, they wouldn't even bring in a starting pitcher, because they would just re-sign Vogelsong, and be stuck with Zito and Sanchez in the rotation with Cain and Bumgarner.

This will never happen, so stop suggesting it. Lincecum will never play for anyone but San Francisco. Same with Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner. Only scenario would be like Glavine and Smoltz who wanted to continue their careers in their late 30's and into their 40's. However, every single prime year for both of these guys will be in orange and black.

you talked a lot about the respective ages and level of production of Smoak and LaPorta but once again failed to address the issue that Lincecum has 1.5 more season left on his contract than Sabathia or Lee did and is younger than either of those two were when they were traded, and certainly has a much more consistent track record than Lee did when he was dealt. Evaluate total WAR and cost all you want but the simple fact remains that the current trade value of elite starting pitchers very much in their prime simply IS more than one very promising, but maybe position-less hitting prospect coming off a year that saw his value diminish greatly. You may not agree with a deal that sends at least Montero and one of the pitching B’s to the Giants for Lincecum, but in reality thats at least what it would cost.

I’d think so due to his small frame, and you never know how long he’s going to be considered elite. He’s thrown a ton of innings, and I know that he supposedly due to his odd wind up will not suffer anything. And they could ask for a lot and maybe even another all-star teamed up with a few prospects.

That trade is probably too favorable for the Giants, but it’s more realistic than DC’s proposal. When you just look at WAR vs Salary (something no GM does, no matter how many times DC tells you they do.. LOL WAR = FIP X innings) Machado is the most valuable player in that deal, and Jones is probably the second most.

Since when did Montero get that much value? in 69 PA’s in the majors? sample size people, according to fangraphs, only his swing rate has stabilized. I don’t get the huge buzz about him, he’s a DH who put up a 120 wRC+ in AAA.

Montero and Nunez is so laughable.

HUNTER PENCE GOT JARRED COSART AND JONATHAN SINGLETON!
How can Lincecum only get Montero and Nunez
Adrian Gonzalez got Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo, I think Rizzo is a better prospect than Montero and Kelly is still a great pitching prospect.

Zack Greinke who at the time of the trade only had 1 good year(note: I really like Greinke)
got Chris Archer and Hak- Ju Lee

all these packages are better than Montero/Nunez
The Red Sox would top the Yankees offer easily if that was as far as they would go. They would offer Middlebrooks, Ranaudo and an arm close to the majors like Alex Wilson.

Yes, I will evaluate those things! Cost is incredibly important! Lincecum (if you attach the Huff anchor to him) will cost over $20 million MORE per year than either Lee or Sabathia did, and he’s coming off worse seasons than either of them were when they were traded. It’s like everybody here has forgotten that Fangraphs is all about considering all of the variables that impact decision-making and just went off name recognition. No pitcher has ever been paid $30 million/year, period, and now you’re all suggesting that not only will the Yankees do just that, they’ll give up one of the top 2-3 prospects in baseball, one who had a smashingly successful debut, for the right to do so. Madness.

Holy hell, does nobody even look at contracts any more? I said one year of Nick Swisher + $5 million = one year of Matt Cain. That is what’s being traded. Their relative youth is absolutely irrelevant, because each team would need to bid on their respective player on the open market to retain their services next season. Yes, I’m sure if I write a post on a friggin’ Giants’ fansite they’ll all evaluate that neutrally. Right.

Ubaldo is owed either $11 million over the next two years or $18 million over the next three, depending on whether or not he voids his 2014 option. Lincecum + Huff will be owed roughly $60 million over the next two. Gee, maybe the extra FIFTY MILLION DOLLARS over the next two years has something to do with the fact that Ubaldo was worth four prospects, none of which, by the way, were ever ranked any higher than 47th by either BA or KLaw.

Do you even read prospect information? If so, you’d realize that not one of those players has been ranked nearly as high as Montero. Reading would also inform you that not one of the players they were traded for was making anywhere remotely close to $60 million over two years. But sure, there’s absolutely no value to salary relief in major league baseball trades.

Kevin S., while I do believe that the Yankees’ payroll is effectively limitless, I assume that their “plateaued” ~$200MM payroll is the result of pressure from the commissioner’s office. It is illogical for the Yankees to continue widening the payroll gap, since the Yankees are irrelevant without opponents to beat up on. While it is certainly not the fault of the Yankees that some markets are better than others, they would certainly be opposed to a small market opponent improving their situation by moving to New York; that is why revenue sharing exists.

Montero was a top 5 prospect this year. I don’t think Rizzo approached the top 30, and he and Kelly are both looking like they aren’t going to be that special. Rizzo’s ceiling is probably Adam LaRoche.

If external pressure is the reason it’s plateaued, then that would still prevent them from blasting upward, wouldn’t it? My point was that I’d rather look at the evidence (Yankees’ payroll plateau, Cashman’s public statements and actions) rather just say “ZOMG, teh Yankeez can spend infinity dollars!!1!1!” without any kind of evidence backing up their ability to do so.

Hi agree with ciscokid, leave Timmy with the Giants and take Cain instead for the Yankees. If we gave away our most valueable player and the yankees have the best offense, then we would be helping them out…..

Kevin, I know you seem to think that you are right about everything and the consensus of the people here are wrong (and even when they make cogent points, you choose to ignore them, in true, stereotypical hard-headed style), but it’s about time you look in a mirror here and stop being a slave to surplus value and WAR calculations.

The goal of a major league franchise is to win the World Series. NOT to accumulate the most surplus value. I don’t want to have to mention again what many people on here have about position scarcity, market forces, etc. But if you think Nick Swisher for Matt Cain is a fair trade simply because Cain is $5 million more expensive, well, then, using your Yankees as an example…

C.C. Sabathia for Brandon Beachy is a fair trade because the projected ~3-4 WAR difference will be made up for by the ~$18 million difference in salary.

Robinson Cano for Danny Espinosa is a fair trade because the projected ~3 WAR difference will be made up for by the ~$13 million difference in salary.

Curtis Granderson for Jon Jay is a fair trade because the projected ~2 WAR difference will be made up for by the ~$10 million difference in salary.

those are really stupid trades with really dumb reasoning, right? right. Just like your Swisher for Cain proposal.

Do you really think that the Yankees’ revenue curve has flattened since 2006? Since they moved into their new stadium in 2009? Jesus, man, you have no idea what you’re talking about.

Stop underrating how much money the Yankees have — their estimated revenue for 2012 is ~$450 million, their franchise value is approaching $2 billion…you think they give a flying fuck about surplus value??? Why don’t they just field a team of 0-3s with 2 WAR who give them way more surplus value than sabathia or rivera or cano or granderson or tex?

What evidence? When have they decided to NOT pursue someone who would fit their team / long term on-field plan because of money?

Their payroll has stabilized because they’ve been smart about spending, not because they’ve met their budget. They could EASILY sustain a payroll $100 million more, probably even higher. But there are only so many premium free agents, so many positions on a baseball team, etc.

I never said they should go with a team of 0-3s, but nice strawman. I said that it was fairly obvious that their major league budget was in the $205-210 MM range, and I’d have to see some pretty convincing evidence that they’re able and willing to bust that up to $225-230 MM for what’s likely a 2-3 win upgrade over their current situation. Who’s the one who doesn’t know what they’re talking about, now?

And to continue piling on, you’re basically rating Montero as one of the top 10-15 assets in the game. Which is absolutely fucking ridiculous. The guy is a 3-4 WAR DH *AT BEST*, and the attrition rate for top rated hitting prospects is a fuckton higher than you seem to think. Don’t let one hot month and some scouting reports make you think he’s a future HOF.

Remember Jeremy Hermida? Top 5 prospect, had an awesome debut at age 21? How did his career work out? And that guy at least could play the field.

how about Travis Snider? Top prospect, 1 good month at age 20. You want him now?

Ben Grieve? Top prospect, great debut at 21, never approached that again. Out of baseball by 30.

Ruben Rivera? Top prospect forever who had a very good debut at age 22. And he was a five-tool talent. Or Jeffrey Hammonds. Or Cliff Floyd. Or Karim Garcia.

The whole thing about how the Giants could throw any RHP out there and get decent results is kind of irritating. Yes, Ryan Vogelsong was good this year. And I guess you could look at Brad Penny in a SSS in 2009. But go before him and over the last few years, you have guys like Todd Wellemeyer, Joey Martinez, Kevin Correia, Brad Hennessey, Ryan Sadowski, Russ Ortiz, Matt Morris and Jamey Wright who are all RHP that pitched pretty poorly for the Giants.

Other than Vogelsong, who else are all of these mediocre pitchers that the Giants have turned into pitching machines by acquiring them, exposing them to Righetti and pitching them in AT&T? I’m not seeing it. Everyone who has pitched well for the Giants in the past five years (other than Vogelsong) is, I would argue, an actual good pitcher. I would be pretty loathe to think we could easily find (cheap?) average production to plug into Lincecum’s pitching spot just because of Ryan Vogelsong, when I’ve had the pleasure of watching plenty of mediocre to awful right-handed pitching in SF in the past five years.

And yet my own points on the relative scarcity of corner outfielders and starting pitchers in this free agent market aren’t relevant, right? The entire premise of Dave’s article was that the Giants should trade from their strengths to free up cash and improve their weaknesses elsewhere. According to MLBTR’s arbitration estimates, those raises will take the Giants right back to last year’s payroll, with the site hearing payroll won’t significantly increase. That leaves the Giants without a shortstop and unpleasant options at one or two of the corners. The expected difference between Matt Cain and Barry Zito (the presumptive odd man out of the rotation) is about the same as the expected difference between Nick Swisher and Aubrey Huff or Nate Schierholtz. So, the Giants have saved $5 million dollars without really changing their team’s expected win output (and if you believe there’s any value to balancing the offense/defense disparity, there’s that as a positive, too). Now, they can take that $5 million and at least put it towards a short stop who isn’t a complete fiasco. That makes the Giants a better team, and explains why they should consider this trade. Are you actually going to respond to anything I say, or are you just going to continue insulting me and appealing to the authority of the crowds?

Wow, solid comeback. Creative. While neither of us have an idea of what their budget is, you using the fact that their payroll has flattened is irrelevant. Their revenue has risen considerably in the past 5 years (by about $150 million) and so it seems pretty clear that they are ABLE to afford Lincecum. Which is the only part of this argument that matters. Whether they are WILLING TO doesn’t affect an analysis of the trade, it just affects the likelihood of it happening.

Not to mention calling it a 2-3 win upgrade is completely faulty analysis. Lincecum is a 4-5 win upgrade over whatever shitty starter would be filling the spot. Montero is a 2-3 win DH next year, if they are lucky (see my post above for a ton of examples of hitting prospects busting. And I could list another long group of guys who panned out eventually but struggled their first 1-3 years in the majors). They could go out and trade for Billy Butler or sign Carlos Beltran or any number of things to fill that production, or better than production.

Would they be willing to spend the money for a 4-5 win upgrade? I don’t know. Are they able to? Absolutely. Like everyone is saying, surplus value means even less to the Yankees than it does to other teams. We all know winning and winning championships is what matters. So what does it matter to you if the Yankees aren’t maximizing their resource efficiency? It’s not your money, and it’s not going to prevent them from spending on draft picks or other free agents or whatever.

You seem like a smart guy, but with the rhetoric level of a high schooler (the burden of proof is not solely on your opponent all the time, despite what you might thnk) and the FOX news stubborness and inability to admit in any way that you are wrong. You don’t win arguments merely by sticking to your guns. But keep telling yourself you’re right and maybe it’ll come true, despite the majority of probably the most well-educated, analytical and articulate group of baseball fans out there telling you you’re wrong.

Schockingly, you chose examples of players who weren’t all the similar in talent or compensation, making it not really comparable to my proposal at all, but we’ll have at it. Further, the going rate for a win is $5 million, I believe, making all of those bad trades for the Yankees just in terms of $/win (and you underrated the projected gap between Granderson and Jay – I have it at 2.5-3 wins). Further, while my proposed trade fills a hole from a position of depth while also providing some extra salary space, your trades all simply swap one player for a worse player at that position, doing nothing to address any Yankee needs which, realistically, the Yankees have the ability to do through free agency if they so choose (at least one of Jackson, Buehrle, Yu and Wilson should fall under the roughly $15 million I think the Yankees have to spend this offseason). The Giants don’t have that luxury, hence the premise of the entire article.

+1 on this. I guess some people are so desperate to not admit that these Giants pitchers are, you know, actually very good, they are reduced to hypothesizing that it’s something in the air in SF. Of course that doesn’t explain why they don’t have a significant Home/Road split either.

Right, so if Lincecum is a 4-5 win upgrade over the Yankees’ next pitching option, and Montero is a 2-3 win DH, then, yeah, the Yankees would be spending $30 million for a 2-3 win upgrade, going well past any previous payroll level they’ve had before. Glad we agree on that. If the Steinbrothers have told Cashman he has a budget, something he’s alluded to repeatedly in the past, then that’s just as relevant to any analysis as the supposition that the Yankees don’t care about how many bucks they spend to get their bang. Billy Butler will cost prospects and $8 million/year. Carlos Beltran will cost greater than $10 million/year. You’ve got the Yankees going up towards $240 million in payroll now. On what basis can you possibly think it’s reasonable that they might do this?

I was responding to one of your points, in that simply evaluating a trade based on war / salary difference is silly. How about Roy Halladay for Logan Morrison? or Justin Verlander for Matt Joyce? Clearly there are club control differences here, etc., but the point stands.

Okay, but to address directly your arguments here — I don’t agree with your initial point that there are more top-line SPs (Buehrle and Jackson are not as good as Cain, and Darvish is a wild card) on the market than OFs comparable to Swisher (Beltran, Cuddyer, Willingam, DeJesus). But even still, the relative scarcity of these positions on the FA market is really not that relevant — much more relevant is the relative scarcity throughout baseball. It’s not as if top-line SPs see their trade value decrease when there are a few more on the FA market while corner OFs see their trade value increase when there are relatively few on the market. (and WAR does not take into account hitter/pitcher relative scarcity, BTW). Top level SPs are worth more than comparable corner OFs because they are much harder to develop and acquire.

I don’t think trading Matt Cain for a hitter is a bad idea. Trading anyone can be a good idea, depending on the trade. But you’re again overrating Swisher, who is heading into his decline phase (sure he might be a 4 win player, but it’s just as likely he’s a 3 win player) — he might be a 2 in upgrade over Schierholtz, but that’s no guarantee.

Cain is a very solid bet for a 4-5 win season and as has been discussed ad naseaum on this site is underrated by FG WAR. Zito has not been more than 2 win pitcher in a long time, is coming off a terrible, injury-filled season. Not to mention the value in having more than 5 major league starters — and the Giants have no pitching depth whatsoever at the moment unless you happen to like the Eric Surkamps of the world.

So I don’t buy that trading Cain for Swisher keeps their win expectation the same. Regardless, because I believe Cain’s trade value is clearly higher than Swisher’s, they could do much better if they were to trade Cain.

Well, I had some hopes that you might be reasonable enough to actually have an argument with, but you’ve disappointed me.

To quickly address your reply without wasting much more of my time (and it’s clearly being wasted, because you either can’t or won’t process my arguments) — it’s not spending $30 million on a 2 win upgrade. The Yankees aren’t going to get 0 WAR from their DH if they trade Montero. Not sure how you can’t see this.

And to reiterate, it is not relevant to this entire discussion whether the Yankees are WILLING TO spend the money to do it. You’re arguing that it’d be ridiculous for the Yankees to accept the trade, because a) Montero is awesome (addressed in posts above) and b) the upgrade is not worth the money. The second argument is mostly predicated on the Yankees not being ABLE to afford it. Because if they are ABLE to afford it without sacrificing other parts of their operation, then b) is an irrelevant argument. The trade makes their team better and more likely to win the World Series. I don’t need to have a basis for saying it’s reasonable that they might raise payroll. I just need a reasonable basis for saying that they are ABLE to. And I do — their enormous, growing revenue base. Sure, they might not want to. They may not want to win, maybe they are most concerned with maximizing profits. Who knows? BUT you cannot evaluate a baseball trade on those merits, because you don’t know their motivations. You can only evaluate it on the basis of what makes sense for the teams based on the goal of winning the most championships possible. And in that context, trading $$$, Jesus Montero and Eduardo Nunez for Lincecum and Huff makes absolute sense.

That’s the last I’ll say on this. There’s no point talking past someone.

He is soooo wrapped up in stats and prospect rankings that he is completely blind to the actual trade at hand. First of all, the Ubaldo trade not getting any prospects that were ranked high is a joke. The prospect rankings put out by all organizations are before the start of the season and rarely take into account those players drafted that year. I.e. Drew Pomeranz, who by all account and measures is a Top 10-15 prospect in the game. He was drafted after the “prospect year” was established hence the reason why he was the PTBNL in the trade.

Lincecum is more than a number. He is one of the very few players in the league that every 5 games takes the ball and puts fans in the seats. While the Yankees and Red Sox may not be to worried about attendance, any team like the Rangers, Angels, Dodgers, Cardinals, or Orioles look at a trade with a guy like Lincecum as a business move. A move that drives up revenue. This factor involved with the fact that Lincecum is one of the top pitchers in the game is why if the giants even entertained the thought of moving him, he would be stalked by numerous teams besides the yankees, causing the value to skyrocket.

Kevin get your head out of your ass as well. A rotation with Lincecum, Sabathia in it would make your team unbelievable… The problem is that most Yankee fans have this notion that Montero is the next Babe Ruth or something.

I think its funny that all the talk is about the Yankees. The Yanks are least likely to trade their prospects because they can afford to be the highest bidder when free agents become available. They have never been in the business of trading their premium prospects (see: Jeter, Rivera, Pettite, Gardner, Cano, Nova, etc).

First off, Halladay, with one season left on his contract, was traded for 3 A prospects. Drabek, Taylor and D’arnaud were 2,4 and 6 in the Phils system. Drabek has had some reversals, Taylor was traded for Wallace, who was then traded for Gose. D’Arnaud is one of the best catching prospects in the minors (was AA player of the year for New Hampshire).

Oh, and btw, the Giants have a catcher. What they need is an OF and a SS. Their production from SS was laughable last year.

The Blue Jays have the best pieces for a deal for Lincecum, and the payroll to make it happen. They have two top tier SS, Escobar, under a very nice four year deal, and Hechevarria, the best fielding ss in the minors (not even close, actually). They can take a bit of a hit on their offense. And they can spare a B arm out of their system, as well as a good of with lots of upside (they have R Davis, Snider, and Thames fighting for a single spot in OF). They can offer Hechevarria, Thames and Deck McGuire (major league ready arm), along with one of their top tier catching prospects (not darnaud). Addresses several issues for the Giants at once, while giving the Jays a scary ‘win now’ rotation of Linc, Romero, Morrow, Alvarez and Cecil (ignoring Drabek, Hutchinson and other talents), and not cutting into their already potent offense.

This is crazy talk……why trade one of the best pitchers in baseball….and maybe the best big game playoff pitcher(with respect to Halladay and Lee, Timmy beat em both).
If the Giants make this proposed trade just to get some more offense, with the Assumption that because AT&T is a pitcher’s park and can turn any RHP into a affective starter, they are crazy. SF would turn into the Rangers. A good offensive team with a bunch of above ave. starters, but no one elite to anchor.
A team needs that 1 elite pitcher to win it all……NY in 2009 had CC, SF in 2010 had Timmy, and STL in 2011 had Carpenter.
Articles like these put bad ideas into fans.

Thanks for comparing Willingham, Cuddyer and DeJesus to Swisher – now I know I don’t have to bother taking you seriously. Also, it’s xFIP that underrates Cain – FIP takes his HR-suppressing abilities at face value.

Sir, I’ve listen to my friend say Kenny Lofton was the best CF in baseball, ever. I’ve heard people say Keith Foulke was unhittable in 2004. I’ve heard people say the 90s Braves were the greatest teams ever to play baseball and said nothing but I simply can not sit by and hear you say Middlebrooks, Ranaudo and Wilson is better than Montero and Nunez. Thats just the most absurd thing I’ve ever heard in my life.

The Giants would never do Swisher for Cain. By trading away Cain, they probably forfeit any chance of signing Cain past this season. They probably have designs at extending him and being the current employer and having exclusive negotiating rights for a year is certainly worth something.

Now, if Cain had publicly stated that he plans to test the market at the end of the year, and the Yankees sweetened the deal a little, it’s not absurd.

One thing I feel you fail to consider is that Lincecum would have a much better lineup supporting him then he had in SF. So he could pitch the same he has the last two years and more then likely be equal or better then Sabathia.

Also the Yankees I feel would rather have good backups for Arod and Jeter so they can take a day off from playing the field by DHing rather then having a full time young DH who can’t really play a position. Add in the fact that the Yanks were willing to give this kind of money to Cliff Lee to play alongside Sabathia and they would pay the money for Lincecum. Not sure if they would take on Huff’s contract. But that would depend on how much they would have to shoulder.

Also you need to take into consideration that Boston is desperate for arms. And this is Lincecum I think even the Blue Jays would at least kick the tires on acquiring him if he is available. By adding Lincecum to Romero, Morrow and the pitching depth Toronto is developing as well as keeping him away from Boston or New York gives Toronto a serious chance over the next few years. I know some people might laugh at the notion of Toronto spending money but you need to consider that the Blue Jays are Rogers (Blue Jays owners) biggest sporting attraction on TV and that they have probably more money at their disposal then the Yankees. Mind you I doubt they will ever spend like the Yankees because they have a large diversification of products unlike the Yankees.

All these factors would make the Yankees willing to part with a fair amount to acquire Lincecum. Another factor is that the Yankees have proven to be quite adept at developing prospects that either turn into Yankees or used as trade bait to acquire the exact type of player we are talking about here.

As a Yankee fan I don’t like the trade of Montero and Nunez for Lincecum. The reason isn’t that I am overvaluing Montero. It’s hard for me to see where Montero fits in the Yankees plans because of the long term contracts that the Yankees have and because of his inability to play any of the positions where the Yankees have needs. I would definitely like to trade Montero for a front line starter. I loved the proposed Cliff Lee trade for example.

I just suspect that Lincecum will not be a front line starter in the AL East. It seems to me like Lincecum’s stuff has diminished a bit since he came into the league and his most recent two years don’t match his first two years. I’m not convinced he will translate to the AL East very well. I don’t really have much to base it on, its just a suspicion. …and apparently I’m alone, as no one else has mentioned it.

This surplus game you are playing is for teams that aren’t named the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Phillies, Tigers, Angels, (and soon!) Dodgers, and maybe a few more teams. Other teams have to worry about having a player on their roster making lots of money, and whether or not it’s better for them to have a young player not as good making way less money or the much better guy making much more.

I dunno, with the ’13 pitching class crazy deep in high-end starters, probably best off going another route and dumping resources there. Signing Roy Oswalt on a short-term deal, keep Montero, Banuelos & Nunez and look to add one of next years top arms.

Adding Lincecum at that cost in talent & salary seems like a bit much for a team that lead the league in wins and out scored their opponents more then any team in the game.

Is Belt a good enough prospect to make that feasible? I have my doubts. If Zito were a free agent I’d guess he’d be looking at a 1 year deal worth 2-4m. His contract has the scary vesting option that locks in his 2014 salary if he pitches 400 innings these next two years, granted he’s yet to do that in any two years with SF.

Belt is a nice prospect, but Zito at 2/46m (presuming no vesting option!) is like paying 40m+ for said nice prospect. The Vernon Wells trade was mind-boggling, but unlike Zito he was coming off a very nice season (125 ops+). Take an injury prone starter owed that much money coming off a season with a near 6.00 era, and unless were talking a truly elite prospect, hard to imagine that scenario bearing fruit.

“‘When Justin Smoak was traded, he was a 23 y.o OPSing .860 as a AAA repeater (or ten points less than Montero posted as a 20 y.o. in AAA the first time around).’

Or 45 points higher than Montero as a 21 yr old repeating AAA.

Can’t ignore this year in our evaluations.”

If you can’t ignore this year in our evaluations than why don’t you include September 2011? Montero as a 21 year old produced an .837 OPS in AAA/MLB. So only about 20 points lower while being 2 years younger and facing an overall harder competition. And not just harder because Montero had some MLB time in there but also because the International League (where Montero played) is simply not an altitude league like PCL (where Smoak played).

A modicum of research on MiLB would inform one that the PCL typically produced much higher OPS rates. If there was anything like park factors or OPS+, the numbers would clear bear in favor of Montero. Montero is easily the better hitting and overall prospect. This was also born out by Baseball America, ranking Montero the #4 and #3 best prospect in baseball. FTW, Smoak’s last two rankings were #23 and #13.

Last but not least, using ZiPS Montero projects to a .819 OPS in 576 ML AB’s next year. Taking conservative estimates of a wOBA of .355 and negative value for being a full-time DH, he projects to a conservative estimate of 2.5 WAR. The last two years have seen Lincecum produce a WAR of 4.9 and 4.4 with diminished velocity.

Now simply because you’re the chip leader at the poker table doesn’t mean you go carelessly throwing away your main asset — your massive stacks. That’s the easy way to go broke and lose. No the smart play is to hold onto the tremendous asset they have in Montero, who will be making near the minimum the next 3 years. Heck the Yankees could sign any number of SP’s + hold onto Montero and have a greater boost to their 2012 win probability.

I love it when people cite examples of the possibility of a prospect busting and never doubt the player in question being traded for.

Yes, prospects are certainly no guarantee. But neither are Major Leaguers, especially pitchers with red flags. Shall I use your same ploy and cite various ML pitchers who put up great stats and then flamed out: Brandon Webb, Chien-Mein Wang, Johan Santana. Add to that the pitchers who seem to peak before the age of 26: Ubaldo Jimenez, Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, K-Rod. Oooh this is fun, I love picking out little anecdotes that suit my argument! Heck, you can find these anecdotes for most any baseless claim that’s made.

Bottom line, if Montero has a 60% of becoming this elite ML, you can’t in the same breath say Lincecum has a 100% of maintaining his production and health. If you handicap the prospect, you also have to handicap the major leaguer. And if Montero has a 60% chance of producing WARs of 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5, and 5 over the next 6 years for a total cost of something like $20 million (for 22.5 cumulative WAR). That is still more valuable than an 85% of linecum producing two 5 WAR seasons for about $40 million.

Yes, Swisher is the superior player in that he probably projects to be a 3-4 win guy whereas the other 3 are in the 2.5-3.5 range. He is also 30, while they are 31 or 32. WOW WHAT A HUGE FUCKING DIFFERENCE. I am a total idiot for calling them “comparable”. Especially when you consider that DeJesus and Willingham will likely sign for $5-8MM/yr instead of Swisher’s ten.

God, you’re insufferable. I think it would literally kill you to admit that you are ever wrong in anything. You must be a joy to hang out with.

First off, I never said Lincecum was a sure thing. This post is entirely about Montero and this sentence:

“Say what you will about Montero not having proven himself yet, but players who hit as well as he does as young as he is do not bust.”

Montero might end up being good. He might end up being great. He might end up being shitty. But in order to anoint him as more valuable than the most elite pitchers in the game implies an absolute certainty that he’ll be a superstar, based on his prospect ranking and 69 good PAs (where he struck out 1/4 of the time with a .400 BABIP). I was merely showing that not only is it not certain he’ll develop, many many players with his pedigree bust, more so than succeed.

As far as your post goes, Lincecum doesn’t have the same red flags as Santana, Harden or Bedard — I don’t understand the K-Rod example as he’s a closer, Wang was never that great, and Webb, yes, shit happens.

And making up numbers like 60% (way too high) and your WAR numbers and projected salary means absolutely nothing. Not to mention it’s a lot easier to project the next 2 years of Lincecum than the next 6 of Montero.

One thing not taken into too much consideration from what I see is going from the NL to the AL would likely get him more innings as he wouldn’t have to be hit for later in close games. I know it won’t be a giant factor, but if there’s a game in the 7th inning either tied or down by 1 or 2 with runners on and the pitchers spot up, the pitcher will likely be pinch hit for and lose an inning or more of work. Going to the AL they will get to stay in if they are doing well.

Trading Tim Lincecum isn’t smart in my opinion unless the players in return are like Curtis Granderson from the Yankees or Jose Bautista from the Blue Jays. There needs to be some serious talent involved for Tim Lincecum, the 2 time cy young award winner and a proven ace.

The Yankees payroll leveled off after 2005 because they had few remaining needs. The Yanks aren’t likely to go after Fielder and Pujols not because they cannot afford them, but because they have Tex at first, and enough geezers to rotate into the DH everyday of the year.

In a different way, Montero is surplus value for the Yankees because A-Rod is going to need a walker to get to the plate any year now.

Maybe the Yanks don’t have a bottomless payroll, but then why did they pay $51 million over three years for Derek Jeter? Surely if they can afford the elderly Jeter they can afford Lincecum.

The only drawback might be whether that pot-smoking hippie is going to cut his hair.

But in order to anoint him as more valuable than the most elite pitchers in the game implies an absolute certainty that he’ll be a superstar,

Jesus Christ, how does somebody so illiterate find his way here? I have explicitly and repeatedly stated that Montero making nothing is more valuable than Lincecum effectively making $30 million, or Felix making $20 million, etc. Learn to effing read. Go back and read the Fangraphs’ trade value series, and tell me if it reads as a ranking of best players or not. Lincecum, by the way, was #33 on that list, and that’s with just his contract, not Huff’s dead weight thrown on top.

I am actually shocked that Cameron is not getting blasted for proposing something so outrageous. I have asked the same type of questions about the Padres and Mat Latos, and was roundly blasted for it. Teams like the Padres and Giants have a harder time getting hitters to their parks, therefore leveraging an asset that is easier to replace than wooing a stud hitter has merit.

Really? With some GM’s, it might be worth the gamble. But given Sabean’s track record (Rowand, Zito, as FA’s, trading Wheeler for 1 month of Beltran and Neal for Cabrera – Cabrera! Also, how many broken players have the Jints signed the last few years? Yes, Rentaria was the WS MVP but how many games did he play for the 2 years, 18 mil? And then he was insulted with the Giants offer for 2011!) I’d never be comfortable letting Sabean choose who to get for Timmy.

Eh, I wouldn’t give too much weight to the possibility that an old school baseball manager took one look at a 5’11” 170 lbs professional baseball player and assumed he was out of shape because he could not run as fast or lift as much as everybody else.

I just don’t see the Yankees and Giants matching up on a deal like this. I think the based on the Giants needs players teams like the Marlins, Pirates, and Red Sox have the players to get it done. Players like Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, Logan Morrison, Andrew McCutchen, and Jacoby Ellsbury seem like much more likely targets. Unfortunately I can’t see the Marlins or Pirates taking on a big salary like that. Maybe with the Marlins new stadium opening they want to make a splash or a 3rd team can get inolved. But if the only team is the Yankees I just don’t see it.

j sanchez, the oft-injured, oft head-case, would never get a top propect like machado in return let alone an established cf with all star caliber potential. giants dont have any prospects in the same mold as machado.

j sanchez for bj upton type maybe. (upton has potential but his strikeouts are absurd)

maybe i just rate jones as potentially one of the best cf in the league. the giants need an elite cf to bring back some of that old say hey feeling. jones could also put up the pre roid bonds like numbers… just saying if the giants were to trade lincecum i like that deal better than montero.

dont get me wrong i am a lincecum fan and a huge giants fan, but economically players are assets and getting value to better the entire organization and extend its chances of winning and being competitive is worth pissing of the casual fan. it killed me when sabean traded matty williams, thought i could never watch the giants again, but what they got in return put the giants in the post season many times. lincecum puts people in seats not because he is a good pitcher but because the giants win games in which he is pitching. sentimentality doesnt win championships (ie Huffs sentimental two year contract), a winning product wins championships.

winning will make people come no matter who is on the mound or in the field. fans want a winning product.

Female gymnasts are usually done by their early 20s because the apparatus they use can most easily be manipulated by pixies. Male gymnastics has three apparatus (horse, parallel bars, and rings) which basically require you to be strong as an ox to be any good at them.

You’re not wrong about flexibility peaking at an early age; you just picked the wrong sport to illustrate the point. (Though, since almost all male sports have a sizable strength component, I’m not sure there IS a “right sport.” Diving, maybe?)

Carl Crawford and Johan Santana come to mind. Money wasn’t the only factor in avoiding each signing but it certainly was a consideration. If the Yankees truly had bottomless resources, why didn’t they scrap Gardner and take Crawford away from Boston? If money wasn’t an option, why not pay for even that slight upgrade? The Yankees also wouldn’t commit money AND prospects to trade for Santana and chose instead to wait for Sabathia. If money wasn’t an option, why not dream of a rotation headed at the time by Santana and Sabathia?

Don’t count the Rangers out of this one. Michael Young would provide the Giants with veteran leadership and the solid bat at SS they thought they were getting with Miguel Tejada. Sabes might bite on that.

First of all, while the Yankees may not have “unlimited payroll”, their resources do mean they can match any other team’s offer to a player. Their in-built ROI makes “overpaid” a much higher threshold than any other team. Their payroll isn’t higher only because (as someone posted early on) there’s only so many roster spots, AND all they have to do is pay $1 more – they could indeed have a $300 million payroll, the market just says they don’t have to.

The other simple point is that Timmy’s elbow or back are going to go. Only way he’ll survive into his 30s is as a finesse pitcher. Sell high now to someone who doesn’t get that (or doesn’t care). Either that or let him walk in two years and let someone else give him $200M over 8 years and greatly regret it.

If it was realistic he’d stay as good as he is, I wouldn’t trade him in a million years – but I really doubt that’s his future.

belt could definitely play left field but that would cost more than montero and nunez. lets be real, montero, nunez, AND a good major league. this is tim lincecum. lets also not forget how important dominant starting pitching is in the playoffs. thats what LED US TO A CHAMPIONSHIP and it easily could happen again next year or any year in the near to distant future if we keep this team intact. posey and belt and freddy sanchez we will be in the playoffs and have a great chance to win it all this year

this is fucking stupid. lincecum is not going to leave sf. he loves it too much and the fans love him too much. the giants struggled offensively last year because they didnt have posey, freddy sanchez and a big bat to bring in runs. they already picked up cabrera and all they need is a short stop and a centerfielder with a big bat. and they arent going to resign beltran cause he didnt like playing in sf and the fans didnt like him. and trading for montero does not make sense cause the giants already have this guy named buster posey who i hear is pretty decent and belt who is a very promising prospect.

I adore receiving my exterior pressured washed. There is nothing at all much better that a clean searching property. But, you do have to becareful I have in the prior really messed up my deck, by doing my own strain washing devoid of know what I was undertaking.

In addition to preparing the pressure washer, get the work area ready. Remove obstacles that could cause you to trip or that might snag the hoses. Turn off power to external electrical outlets and fixtures and tape down plastic to cover them. Trim back plants that touch the home exterior and then wet and cover all of the plants in the work area. Close nearby windows and doors.