Catching a break; more showers to come

Tuesday offers the best opportunity over the next three days for some afternoon sun.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: After morning showers and thunderstorms, skies are expected to be mostly cloudy, revealing a little sun during the afternoon hours. High temperatures will make it into the upper 70s with northerly winds of 5-10mph. Overnight, skies will feature increasing cloud over with some showers and thunderstorms possibly returning by dawn. Lows will be in the low 60s.

Up Next: Wednesday and Thursday will bring mainly cloudy skies with periods of rain and thunderstorms. A constant rain is not expected and the chance for severe storms appears low. Some high resolution forecast models suggest a pocket of steadier, heavier rain is possible Early Wednesday—especially south of I-10. On account of the sky cover and precipitation, high temperatures shouldn’t exceed the mid 70s. By Friday, the unsettled weather will shift east allowing partial sunshine and highs near 80 degrees heading into the weekend.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:Forecast models are in good agreement with trends through Thursday. A cold front will settle through the region Tuesday and into the Gulf of Mexico by evening. The focus for showers and thunderstorms will be along that front meaning that chances will greatly lessen from north to south as the boundary moves in that direction. A break in the upper air energy should result in a dry if not partly sunny period Tuesday Afternoon. There will not be much cold air advection behind the front and so temperatures will stay mild. On Wednesday, a more pronounced shortwave sliding through the sub-tropical jet stream will introduce waves of positive vorticity advection to the region. With dew points in the low 60s and some moisture up into the mid-levels of the atmosphere per relative humidity charts, the upper energy should be able to stir up a few batches of showers and thunderstorms. While it is a little early for specific timing, agreement amongst models would suggest two waves—one Wednesday Morning and another Late Wednesday/Early Thursday. But again, that may change. The parameters for severe weather continue to look unimpressive. By Thursday Afternoon, the axis of that shortwave trough should be east effectively ending uplift and the chance for precipitation in the local area. At this time, a dry forecast has been issued for Friday through Sunday though that will be highly dependent on the behavior of a deep cutoff low in the Southwest—which is not yet being well sampled by radiosondes.