Thursday, July 24, 2008

Great Dilemmas of Our Age: No 94

At midnight tonight do I...

a) Watch coverage of the Glasgow East by election on Sky Newsb) Watch West Ham play MLS All Stars on Setanta Sportsc) Go to bed

My SNP friends have been very quiet today. Either they think they are going to lose or they are too busy knocking up. A couple of journalists I talk to reckon they might still pull it off. If they do, I wonder what the consequences will be for our beloved PM. Nothing serious, I hope.

24 comments:

JessTheDog
said...

I reckon Labour wil probably hold it by a whisker. The campaigning has been neither out of this world or catastrophically blundered by either party. Alex Salmond has worked very hard, the SNP candidate appears dull but worthy and Margaret Curran has been working hard, undoubtedly prompted by the prospect of losing her Holyrood seat due to boundary changes! The swing will be most interesting, as will the implications for other seats.

I hope I am proven wrong, but the core vote is probably tribal Labour, handed down from generation to generation with the football club allegiance and a host of other prejudices reinforced by a lack of education....the same sort of mindset that drives people to the BNP. This sort of constituency will be all that is left of Labour after 2010....they'll be scrabbling for the deprived white reactionary vote with the BNP. Like I said, I do hope I am proven wrong and the SNP break through, but it will be close whatever the outcome.

Look if voting ended at 7pm as I have suggested numerous times then we could all be sat on the edge of our seats. I don't think people realise how expensive democracy is. See Conferences (Policing cost of)freedom to prosper

Over on Tom Harris's blog, the majority of punters are going for a narrow Labour hold.

The trouble is, if Labour does hold Glasgow East, by even 1 vote, they will be talking it up as a resounding victory.

It just is not feasible for the SNP to win this. They will do well, but not that well. I am afraid, dear friends, that it means two more years of Gordon. How depressing.

Importantly... Watch the Scottish dead tree press. They are Labour toadies to a man. Their "interpretation" of the result will be interesting. Also, forget what Labour say, the Scottish BBC will also talk down an SNP gain in share of the vote, and talk up anything other than a Labour hold of less than 1000.

Result: Labour hold Glasgow East with less than 1000. MSM say Labour has bounced back.

I'm going to put my hat in the ring and say the SNP will get it by a slim margin. I haven't been following this election, but it seems that on the grapevine people are talking up Salmond's lot's chances tonight.

Labour majority in Glasgow east is GREATER than the the Tory majority in their number one safest seat, Kensington and Chelsea.Imagine Chelsea not returning a Tory MP. It is so far beyond imagination that it is impossible to consider. People who's local grocer shop is Harrods and who have their own private John Lewis [Peter Jones] become so disgruntled that they all vote Lib Dem.It is inconceivable.

Yet in Labour Party terms this looks like exactly what is happening in Glasgow East.