World View & Market Commentary. Forest first; Trees second. Focused on Real & Knowable facts that filter through the "experts" fluff and media hyperbole. Where we've been, what the future may hold and developing a better way forward.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Wow, Martin is quite the artist, wait until you see the drawings inside, they alone are noteworthy. Quite a creative thinker, you will need to tap the left side of your brain to follow him as he describes how and why a new world currency is inevitable.

In this paper he also gives a market update describing what he views as the future for the major currencies of the world. As if that isn’t enough, you will find an open letter to both President Obama, and Wen Jiabao of China.

I will note that I have seen and heard some talk by people who do not understand the basic premise of Armstrong’s CONFIDENCE model. While I cannot speak for Mr. Armstrong, my understanding is that it is NOT a model for any particular stock market… it is about shifting CONFIDENCE that manifests itself in various markets and is the result of many underlying cycles.

The latest shift in confidence, a mid point shift, was calculated to be on April the 19th. Below, please examine the daily chart of the dollar futures /DX on the left panel of this chart, and the long bond futures, /ZB on the right:

The dollar has been falling again and this latest leg down began on the next business day following his confidence model date. The bond market also began to accelerate it’s sell off (rising interest rates) about the same time. Is that a shift in confidence I see? The fundamental reasons for the shift in confidence underlying BOTH is the SAME. Again, I cannot speak for him, but this change in confidence is fairly evident to me.

I have personally been telling people that a new currency of some form is coming. Most do not believe. The simple truth is this, the underlying math of never ending growth does not allow Interest Bearing Fractional Reserve Money by Fiat to live a prolonged life. Thus change is coming whether we are comfortable with it or not.