There was once a dream that was called Denard Robinson: Accurate Passer. You could only whisper it; anything more than a whisper and it would vanish…it was so fragile. And I fear that it will not survive the fall.

Last Saturday while watching Andrew Maxwell derf another derpity doo, I half-rhetorically asked the assembled a room full of Spartan fans who's the best passing quarterback in our conference this year. Answers, in order of appearance:

…

"CHHIIIRP CHIRRRP" –insects with that leg-rubbing noise

…

…

"Howl" –wolf in the distance

"How about that little dude on Northwestern?" – a Sparty

"No he graduated." –another Sparty

…

"Shit. Really?" –first Sparty

After three weeks the stats (min=25 attempts) say it's Denard and ol' Tyranno-arm:

Rk

Player

Team

Att

Cmp

Yds

Yds/Att

Ys/Gm

TDs

INTs

Rating

1

Denard Robinson

Mich

75

41

699

9.3

233.0

6

4

146.3

2

Taylor Martinez

Neb

79

56

713

9.0

237.7

7

1

170.7

3

MarQueis Gray

Minn

44

26

398

9.0

132.7

5

169.2

4

Reilly O'Toole

Illini

48

38

394

8.2

131.3

6

2

177.3

5

Braxton Miller

OSU

78

48

611

7.8

203.7

7

2

149.1

6

Robert Marve

Pur

56

41

414

7.4

207.0

4

156.7

7

Tre Roberson

Ind

50

33

368

7.4

184.0

2

139.8

8

Cameron Coffman

Ind

57

40

410

7.2

205.0

3

146.4

9

Matt McGloin

PSU

104

59

688

6.6

229.3

8

1

133.5

10

Danny O'Brien

Wis

71

44

454

6.4

151.3

3

1

125.5

11

Trevor Siemian

NW

47

32

292

6.2

97.3

1

0

126.7

12

Andrew Maxwell

MSU

114

65

710

6.2

236.7

2

3

109.3

13

James Vandenberg

Iowa

103

59

593

5.8

197.7

0

2

101.8

14

Kain Colter

NW

56

37

321

5.7

107.0

2

0

124.9

15

Caleb TerBush

Pur

43

24

237

5.5

118.5

3

123.0

His interceptions are dragging down the passer rating, but half are explained by an accurate throw Vincent Smith deflected, and Roundtree getting shoved into last Tuesday by a Bama cornerback. It's just three games in, and the Big Ten competition this year isn't exactly the NFC South, but raise your hand if four weeks ago you thought there might be even a flimsy statistical case for saying "Denard is the best passer in the Big Ten right now."

We've been over his higher efficiency as a runner from the gun ad nauseum, and charted his regression last year as of December, but is he really a better passer when dropping back? Brian's suggested explanations were Pressure, Situation, or Luck (ie sample size). Let's dig into the UFR database and see if there's an answer.

Formation notes: The Air Force defense is the opposite of their offense when it comes to formations. They run their 3-4 on virtually every play. They started off in some unusual (for them, anyway) formations, got burned for 79 yards on the second, and then decided to do this every play:

That may look like a four-man line but the line is directly over the C and tackles; the standup end is a linebacker, with AF's other linebacker flared out over the opposite hash.

For Michigan this is "double stacks," BTW.

I did not call this out specifically—it's just shotgun twins twin TE but note the inversion of the line TE—Kwiatkowski—and Funchess, who is in an H-back spot inside of him. Michigan used this mostly to get Funchess on wheel routes.

Substitution notes: A mishmash at WR with Gardner, Gallon, and Roundtree all seeing about the same number of snaps. Jackson and Jerald Robinson were next in line. Funchess, Kwiatkowski, and Williams split a good number of TE snaps.

Toussaint was the only tailback all game save for a few Smith snaps; the line was all starters.

Show? Show.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M20

1

10

Shotgun triple stack

1

0

4

Nickel under

Run

QB counter

Robinson

1

Looks like read option in the backfield; Lewan pulls around into the hole. Omameh(-2) lets a DT go straight upfield into the Lewan pull; Lewan delays to prevent a TFL and Denard has to deal with that unblocked LB in the hole. RUN-: Omameh(2)

M21

2

9

Shotgun trips

1

0

4

Okie

Run

QB lead draw

Robinson

79

AF goes with a six man front and one MLB behind it with a cover two shell in the secondary. They send five, backing two out, those two are tasked with covering the receivers. They're looking at a bubble screen fake, and bug out. They're gone. Michigan blocks the four frontside guys, with Mealer(+1) and Barnum(+1) getting a scoop on the DT that gets Mealer(+1) to the second level, where he pancakes a safety. Gardner walls off a corner, and then Robinson(+3) is one on one with the last guy. You know how that ends. Ermagerd. RPS +3. This was easy, really.

RUN+: Robinson(3), Mealer(2), Barnum

RUN-:

Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-0. 8 min 1st Q. By the time M gets the ball back plays are 24-2 AF.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M27

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 3-4

Run

QB iso

Robinson

-1

This is either a run blitz or a really great read; one AF MLB shoots forward at the snap, getting past Mealer(-1) before he can come off a combo block. Maybe Molk makes this play, but it's not awful to not be able to do it. The DT Mealer and Omameh(-1) are trying to combo is shooting way left at the snap, so this is a blitz, I bet. Omameh totally loses the guy. Hopkins(-2) runs right by the blitzer, and this gets Denard buried in the backfield. RPS -1. RUN-: Omameh, Mealer, Hopkins(2)

AF tips a blitz like whoah and Michigan does not check. They send a corner and LB, slanting the line away from that blitz. Barnum(-2) gets confused and lets a DT through untouched. This is not good. Toussaint dances through it for a yard or two. Omameh(-1) also did not pick up the blitz and let that LB through clean. Bubble? Open. RPS –1, gotta have a check. RUN-: Barnum(2), Omameh(1)

M48

2

9

Shotgun double stack

1

0

4

Base 3-4

Pass

PA drag

Gallon

8

Gallon comes in motion as the ball is snapped; M fakes the zone and flips it out to him in space. Same play that he got open on against Alabama but Denard overthrew it. This one is on the money. Gallon gets the edge on the slowish AF defense and nears the first down. (CA, 3, protection N/A, RPS +1)

O44

3

1

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Run

QB power

Robinson

7

AF running another blitz up the middle with stunting action. Michigan's pulling outside of a TE and Omameh(+1) plugs a blitzer, ending that backside threat. On the playside, Kwiatkowski(+1) seals the playside end, Toussaint(+0.5) kicks the OLB (easy), and Barnum(+0.5) pulls through to get an OK second-level block. Robinson is about to test those safeties again when a linebacker who was originally blitzing to the backside recovers for the ankle tackle. Nice recovery by that guy. RPS +1; blitz put AF in a bad spot.

RUN+: Omameh, Barnum(0.5), Hopkins(0.5), Kwiatkowski

RUN-:

O37

1

10

Shotgun triple stack TE

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Run

QB counter

Robinson

7

Run to the other side with Schofield pulling. AF blitzes right in the intended gap; Schofield(+1) slows up to wall the guy off… guy goes after Toussaint. If Schofield keeps going and bips a safety... oh well. Denard now has a big hole thanks to a big kickout from Lewan(+1) and Barnum walling off a LB who bit on Toussaint. S fills well, Denard tries to go around him and is chopped down by pursuit.

O30

2

3

I-Form

2

1

2

Base 3-4

Run

Iso

Toussaint

5

Mansome block from Hopkins(+2) who takes a blitzing LB, stands him up, and thrusts him out of the hole. Mealer(+1) adjusted well to a moving LB and escorted him out of the way; Omameh(+1) put a potentially problematic DT on the ground. Safety fill is rapid since he was moving forward on the snap as AF went to an eight man front.

RUN+: Hopkins(2), Mealer, Omameh

RUN-:

O25

1

10

Shotgun trips

1

0

4

Base 3-4

Run

Inside zone

Toussaint

-1

This is just an old Rodriguez inside zone and that it doesn't work is kind of on three people. One: Denard. End isn't crashing but a keep is attractive here. Two: Mealer(-1), who can't get much of a block on a playside LB. Three: Toussaint(-2), who refuses to cut it up and ruins excellent blocks from Barnum(+1) and Lewan(+1) on the backside. Maybe the end shuts this down, but probably not for zero yards. Also... we could use some belly here. FWIW, yeah, Omameh and Schofield are in the backfield but this is essentially fine on zone blocking. That's where they went. Toussaint needs to cut.

RUN+: Lewan, Barnum

RUN-: Mealer, Toussaint(2)

O26

2

11

Shotgun trips TE

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Run

QB iso

Robinson

-8

AF tips a safety blitz, no checks on either side. Michigan runs directly into it. Lewan is expecting to kick a DE who screams inside of him; nothing he can do. Denard runs around and goes down. RPS -3. This was dead. Moar checks. This was so tipped.

O34

3

19

Shotgun double stack

1

0

4

Dime

Pass

Rollout out

Gallon

Inc

I think. This is a rollout flood route on which AF blitzes and still has everybody blanketed. Denard eventually throws it at a double-covered Gallon, getting it batted near the LOS. Given the situation I don't really mind the attempt—it's a crappy punt in a world of crappy punts if it gets picked off. He had Roundtree if he wanted to throw across his body... does he? I don't know. He's there for a reason, I guess. I'm just going to punt and BA this. (BA, 0, protection N/A, RPS -1)

AF blitzes right up the intended gap; Toussaint(+1) takes that guy out of the play. Mealer(+0.5) does an okay job with the NT; Barnum(+0.5) gets a linebacker he released directly into. Robinson(+0.5) gets a half for moving past the blocks in an optimal way.

M18

2

4

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Run

Zone stretch

Toussaint

0

AF stunts, sending the playside DT right into Mealer. He goes low, submarining him and taking out Barnum. Not sure what Mealer can do about that. Omameh and Schofield now have to block guys inside of them that are at angles they are not expecting; they don't do this well. Even if they do, the peel-off leaves an unblocked guy waiting to fill. Williams(-1) did get owned on the edge and that didn't help. Rest of it seems RPS -2. Bubble open, BTW.

M18

3

4

Shotgun 4-wide

1

0

4

Base 3-4

Pass

Out

Jackson

8

Stacked to the boundary. Bubble yawningly open. Michigan does it the slightly harder way by sending Jackson on an option route at about six yards. He breaks open, but not by much, and Denard shoots it in there like he's a WCO QB. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)

M26

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Pass

Wheel

Funchess

24

Play action fake to Smith sucks up the OLB, who dodges Funchess like he's blocking. He and Gallon break deep against one safety, who takes the inside. Funchess is open, Denard sees it and hits him. Big paws man. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +1)

O45

1

10

Shotgun trips

1

0

4

Base 3-4

Run

Broken play

Robinson

2

Denard(-1) bobbles the snap. I was going to call this an iso since the play worked out like that but after watching it a couple times, Smith is definitely expecting a mesh point and just improvises after he figures out it's not coming. This is a half-step from breaking big, in fact, but a blitz from the OLB gets Denard around the legs just as he's about to burst. Barnum(+1) and Omameh(+1) paved the way.

RUN+: Omameh, Barnum

RUN-: Robinson

O43

2

8

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 3-4

Run

Inside zone

Toussaint

1

This one is on the right side of the line as AF slants to get it to the backside. Schofield(-2) is supposed to latch on to that slant and push him past where he's trying to go; instead he just whiffs and dude makes contact in the backfield. This is really all Schofield; Barnum is looking for someone to block in his zone and this is not a tough thing to do. All Schofield has to do is push the guy and Toussaint has a nice lane on the cutback he did find. RUN-: Schofield(2)

O42

3

7

Shotgun 4-wide

1

0

4

Base 3-4

Pass

Hitch

Gardner

12

AF brings the heat. Both Mealer (-1) and Omameh(-1) get blown by, with Omameh's being more relevant. Denard has a guy in his face, and where previously he may have backfooted something turrible this time he shoots one out to Gardner in rhythm. It's a little upfield, but that's fine. (CA+, 3, protection 0/2, Mealer -1, Omameh -1)

O30

1

10

Ace Big

1

3

1

Base 3-4

Pass

PA TE corner

Funchess

30

PA gets Funchess one on one with a safety and Denard all day. Funchess loses the S because he's thinking waggle, and Denard fires it. It's a little short, but the S is still running as Funchess finds the ball, so it's not really very off. Much better this than missing. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +3). FUNCHESSSSSSS

Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-3, 7 min 2nd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M38

1

10

Shotgun twin TE

1

2

2

Base 3-4

Run

QB iso

Robinson

7

Looks like Toussaint(-1) blows an assignment and heads into the wrong gap. He ends up running into Omameh near the LOS; unblocked MLB. Robinson(+1) bounces it and gets the edge thanks to Schofield(+1) driving his guy a couple yards off the LOS. Interior blocking looked good, FWIW

RUN+: Robinson, Schofield

RUN-: Toussaint

M45

2

3

I-Form

2

1

2

Base 3-4

Run

Power off tackle

Toussaint

0

AF walks down a safety and blitzes him right into this. They tipped this too, but no checks never checks. RPS -2.

M45

3

3

Shotgun double stack

1

0

4

Base 3-4

Pass

Dumpoff

Smith

Int

Pass is a little high and hard for the 5'6" Smith, bouncing off his hands and getting intercepted. Denard had all the room in the world to run, but this was also wide open for a first down. (MA, 2, protection 1/1) On replay I don't even know if this is MA. Very catchable.

Drive Notes: Interception, 14-3, 5 min 2nd Q. Next drive starts with 1:16 in the half and two TOs.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M19

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Run

Zone read keeper

Robinson

10

AF shows blitz and backs out of it. Funchess's guy is backing out at the snap. Funchess ends up chasing him a bit, then decides to release downfield. Denard(+1) pulls since there's no one containing him and shoots up in the gap for a first down. Funchess probably should have clocked a linebacker instead of going for the safety, but oh well. RPS +1.

M29

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Pass

Rollout hitch

Roundtree

5

A crappy throw takes Roundtree off his feet, robbing him of YAC and keeping the clock running. Accurate and this is 8-10 and a stopped clock. (MA, 2, protection 1/1)

M34

2

5

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Pass

In

Gardner

5

Eight men in coverage; Denard can't find anything except a short one to Gardner at the sticks. Accurate, at least. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)

M39

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Pass

Deep hitch

Gardner

19

Three man rush again; Denard surveys and finds Gardner open between levels in the zone, zips it for a first down. (CA+, 3, protection 1/1). They burn nine seconds before the next snap.

O42

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Pass

Post

Dileo

Inc

AF sends seven; picked up. Denard stares down Dileo and does not see Gardner coming open beneath him. He forces it into three guys. No es bueno. (BR, 0, protection 3/3)

O42

2

10

N/A

N/A

Penalty

Illegal substitution

--

-5

Bleah.

O47

2

15

Shotgun trips

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Pass

Post

Jackson

Inc

I'm not charting this given the situation. May as well force it. Do think Gallon was a better option, but whatever. (NC, 0, protection 2/2)

Drive Notes: EOH, 14-10.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M42

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Run

QB power

Robinson

58

AF sends a blitzer off the corner. Toussaint(+1) deals with him. Omameh has to get around that issue and does. Robinson slows up for him. Now both are on the edge with a linebacker. Omameh(+1) blows him up. Robinson cuts inside that. Lewan(+2) has donkeyed a slanting DL all the way to Schofield(!), so there's a gap. Mealer(+1) sealed away another DT. Williams and Barnum are doubling a linebacker. Denard(+2) has a big cutback lane. Dileo(+1) cracks down on the other OLB and gets a bonus block on a DB who wasn't making the play anyway. Gardner's stalk-blocking the corner to that side; Denard(+1) jukes that guy inside out and seeya. No shoes necessary.

Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-10, 14 min 2nd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M35

1

10

Shotgun twins twin TE

1

2

2

Base 3-4

Run

QB sweep

Robinson

1

M pulls Omameh and Schofield around two tight ends to the boundary. AF is stunting things; Williams(+1) does a good job to shove the playside DE past everything. Another DL has stunted himself out of the play, and Lewan(+1) gets the third despite the stunting. Michigan crushes the second level, and the only thing that can prevent Robinson from getting five or six yards is Robinson(-2) not cutting upfield and instead jogging out of bounds.

RUN+: Lewan, Williams

RUN-: Robinson(2)

M36

2

9

Shotgun triple stack TE

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Run

QB draw

Robinson

10

AF tips that blitz again, and this time it seems like we do get a check. Robinson fakes a WR screen to Gallon and takes off. Just like his opening run, the two linebackers haul for WRs on the outside, so if Denard can get past the line he will get yards. Pump fake gets one for free; Lewan(+1) stuffs the other blitzer and there's an avenue outside. No gap in the middle, unfortunately, or this could have been a massive gain. As it is it's an easy first down. Denard(+1) for speed and things. RPS +1.

RUN+: Robinson, Lewan

RUN-:

M46

1

10

Shotgun trips TE

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Run

QB power

Robinson

5

Barnum(+1) pulls and gets there. He takes on a run-blitzing LB at the LOS and wins. Toussaint(+1) kicks the OLB. No chance on the safety because Barnum got used at the LOS but he's got to be cautious and it's a decent gain.

RUN+: Toussaint, Barnum, Williams

RUN-:

O49

2

5

Shotgun trips TE

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Pass

Slant

J. Robinson

10

That's not Milliner. The Other Robinson gets inside position and uses his body to wall off the DB; Denard nails him. Body-caught, but results-based charting. (CA+, 3, protection 1/1)

O39

1

10

Shotgun twins twin TE

1

2

2

Base 3-4

Pass

Wheel

Funchess

26

TEs both in two point stances. Michigan runs a Toussaint fake and then goes pass, with Funchess running a wheel down the sideline. Man coverage, AF linebacker tries a chuck or something, and that's over. Denard floats a perfect touch pass over the LB. Funchess bobbles it but does bring it in. Great throw maximized YAC. (DO, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +1)

O13

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Run

QB power

Robinson

6

This time the other way. Kwiatkowski(+1) seals the DE; Lewan(+1) shoves a slanting DT and then gets a second level block. LB spins off it but is significantly delayed. Robinson(-0.5) gets spooked by that fellow and runs a little outside where he should, giving up some yards when a guy Dileo cut decently can make a tackle from his knees.

Ugh, just throw the damn ball to Gallon and see if this AF corner's eight-yard cushion is something he can make up. That's a guaranteed five yards. Instead, M runs a power. Williams(-1) loses a DE to the inside. Omameh(-1) does not get there, and that's all she wrote. RPS -1.

M2

2

9

I-Form

2

1

2

Base 3-4

Pass

Hitch

Gardner

Inc

Extremely token run fake and max pro. Robinson fires a hitch, accurate but maybe a tiny bit late. Gardner gets his hands on it but ends up dropping it as the CB rakes it out. Could be route here, as separation was not gained. (CA, 1, protection 1/1)

M2

3

9

Shotgun double stack

1

0

4

Base 3-4

Pass

Out

Jackson

Inc

Zone blitz gets two ILBs in Robinson's face, so he flings a dart to Jeremy Jackson that he bobbles and then the OLB backing out knocks down. Dileo had separation and could have turned up for the first; Jackson is just slow. In any case, this was probably a yard or two short of the first down unless Jackson did some mansome OLB dragging after the catch. (CA+, 3, protection 0/2, team)

Drive Notes: Punt, 28-17, EO3Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M34

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Run

QB power

Robinson

6

Omameh's back to pulling really badly, as he ends up two yards in the backfield at one point and Robinson has to slow up for him. He does plug the linebacker that shows, I guess. Tentative +1. Lewan(+1) and Williams(+1) club the playside DE with Williams coming out on a LB. Barnum(+0.5) gets the easy NT block; Toussaint(+0.5) kicks the DE, and Denard only has a safety to deal with.

M40

2

4

Shotgun trips

1

0

4

Base 3-4

Pass

PA seam

Dileo

Inc

Robinson gets instant pressure from the edge as a blitz comes and has to dump it immediately. Dileo is covered by one of those linebackers coming out from the center of the field and Denard chucks it high of everyone anyway. I'm filing this PR. I don't mind this from Denard. (PR, 0, protection 0/1, team, RPS -1).

M40

3

4

Shotgun 4-wide

1

0

4

Base 3-4

Pass

Out

Jackson

9

Three-step rhythm throw (except this is a shotgun). This is west-coasty. It's Purdue-y. It's a short out to Jackson for the first down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1). Jackson gets some bullish YAC, too.

M49

1

10

I-Form twins

2

1

2

Base 3-4

Pass

PA post

Roundtree

Inc

Toussaint gets a great cut block on a blitzing OLB that gives Denard time. He pumps, indecisive, and then he's got to go. He runs up in the pocket and as he's getting tackled by that OLB unloads 50 yards downfield to Roundtree, who is open by a step; pass is way long. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)

M49

2

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Run

QB draw

Robinson

7

AF sends a double A gap blitz, backing off an OLB. Barnum(+1) catches one LB and escorts him out of the hole. Toussaint(+1) kicks the other one. Crease. Williams(+1) gets a good downfield block on that OLB who backed out. Robinson is one on one with a safety and ends up trying to cut behind Williams; Safety chops him down by the ankles.

O44

3

3

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Run

QB power

Robinson

11

DE slanting inside on the playside makes Omameh move around him, which slows him. Denard slows, too. By the time he's finished doing that, Williams(+1) has shoved that DE all the way past the back of the line, Schofield(+1) has blown the playside DE past Barnum's guy, and a big cutback lane opens that Robinson(+2) takes. Dileo(+1) cuts off a linebacker and bang secondary.

S nominally covering the slot comes on a Kovacs blitz and nails Toussaint for no gain. RPS -2. No blocking matters here.

O14

2

11

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Pass

Delayed slant

Gardner

Inc

Gardner hitches up at five yards and then extends his route when a LB comes up to cover, and Denard goes for him. He's about to have a completion nearing the sticks when an DL who's not even bothering to rush gets a hand up at the LOS and bats it down. Foiled again! RPS +1, great little route. (BA, 0, protection 2/2)

O14

3

11

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 3-4

Pass

Dumpoff

Toussaint

Inc

Air Force sends six. Picked up but Robinson is spooked and dumps it to Toussaint, low and tough. Not caught, not getting the first down even if caught. RUN THE BALL DENARRRRD. Taking off here has possibilities, man. (IN, 1, protection 3/3)

Drive Notes: FG(31), 31-25, 8 min 4th Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

DForm

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M43

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Run

QB power

Robinson

2

Playside LB splits Toussaint and Barnum, getting upfield of Barnum and forcing Denard inside away from blocking. This gives AF a free hitter, who tackles Robinson in the hole. Think Toussaint(-1) has to go at this guy and cut him so Barnum can come around. Stunt made the blocking down very easy FWIW.

M45

2

8

Shotgun twins twin TE

1

2

2

Base 3-4

Run

QB sweep

Robinson

2

Williams(-1) gets shoved back and loses his guy, which picks off Brink and gives Brink's guy an avenue to flow. Toussaint(-1) never actually gets a hat on the contain guy, and these folks combine on Robinson for a short gain.

RUN+: Schofield

RUN-: Toussaint, Williams

M47

3

6

Shotgun twins twin TE

1

2

2

Base 3-4

Pass

PA rollout hitch

Gardner

Inc

Wide open as the smash route takes the corner to that side deep. Robinson finds it and leaves it short, but catchable. Gardner cant' bring it in. (MA, 2, protection 1/1, RPS +1)

Dumpoff to Smith that's a little high and hard marked MA. This was the INT.

Two iffy throws on sideline stop routes, one of which takes Roundtree off his feet inbounds on Michigan's hurry-up drive at the end of the first half, one of which forces Gardner to try and dig out a low throw on Michigan's final real snap. Both MAs.

Fifty-yard bomb to Roundtree thrown while on the move and getting tackled. IN, but not a big deal.

Dumpoff to Toussaint as he's getting pressure on third and eleven. IN.

There was also a crappy read right at the end of the first half. That's it. Denard Robinson killed Tacopants tag: deployed.

I mean, I'm just like you guys. Wheels on the money, corner routes on the money, even one of those dinky Purdue routes in traffic squeezed in there. He stood in against pressure and shot darts out to his WRs. QBs make mistakes. There are those little frustrating moments when the guy won't just RUNNNNNNN and you're going HNNNNNNGGGG because look at all that space on third and three. But if you're trying to tell me this is not a significant leap forward, you crazy.

I clipped all four of his catches not because I set out to do so but just because it happened. Each was a big gain, each was virtually unstoppable for safety or linebacker, and all but one made you think that Funchess was going to have awesome hands as he plucked the ball out of the air with the twelve-inch skillets attached to his wrists. Was the seam a little behind him? Maybe if it's Dileo the throw forces a spin and a tough catch. Funchess just reaches out for it. Was the touchdown a little short?

Maybe if we're talking about Martavious Odoms or Jeremy Gallon going for that. In Funchess's case, feed the man up high.

Those line numbers have extremely low amplitude because Michigan only got off 28 rushes—Air Force had 71!—and the high RPS numbers mean that I attributed a lot of stuff to play design/response instead of blocking. Like, on the 79-yarder there was only one second level player who needed thumping. That means fewer treats to pass out to the OL and more for Borges. Similarly, getting whacked in the backfield by an unblocked blitzer is not on the OL.

When the line did get called upon, they did well. Mostly.

Okay. Now: Aigh Toussaint?

I'm not sure it was much about Toussaint. He missed one cut pretty badly. Other than that, I'm not sure what he was supposed to do:

Air Force tipped blitzes a lot and Michigan didn't check out of their play but once or twice (and I didn't actually clip the check). Not sure if that's on Denard or Borges, but a lot of the time when Toussaint was getting the ball he was dodging unblocked guys in the backfield. Lewan said this was "embarrassing" OL performance; I do think they had some problems but I think it was mostly Toussaint getting the wrong chamber in Air Force blitz/slant roulette.

Michigan's success in the air was the flipside of that business. Michigan's final TD was easy easy because even Air Force's corners freak out about run.

But the right side of the offensive line is a problem?

I'm not sure Schofield had enough relevant reps in this game to make any sort of declaration. Omameh was pretty bad, though. I was probably too kind when gave him a +1 on some of his pulls. He's back to that arcing thing where he ends up running eight yards when he can run five. And too often yesterday did he let slanting guys right by. Here's the first play:

Have to get a shove on that guy even if he hops past you. Schofield had a similar error on a zone where Air Force slanted hard playside and the only thing preventing Toussaint's good-idea backside cut from working was the whiff. I don't see stuff like that from Lewan.

Robinson only had 4.5 YPC if you take out the big touchdowns, though.

Thanks, Danny Kanell. The way Air Force was playing left them exposed to monster plays. The 79-yarder saw a blitz and both LBs bugging out into a potential bubble screen:

There is no one on the second level, period. Air Force did a lot of stunting and slanting blitzing in order to make up for their size deficiencies, and when it worked it got Michigan in second and long. The long runs were a cost they were hoping not to pay. You can't just take them out and expect to say anything meaningful.

Norfleet?

Yo I got your magic midget right here.

He'll get some carries Saturday.

Did you forget something?

Right, receivers:

[Passes are rated by how tough they are to catch. 0 == impossible. 1 == wow he caught that, 2 == moderate difficulty, 3 == routine. The 0/X in all passes marked zero is implied.]

Player

0

1

2

3

0

1

2

3

Gardner

1

0/1

0/1

5/5

5

0/3

1/2

5/5

Roundtree

1

1/1

2

0/1

1/1

2/2

Gallon

1

1/1

2

0/1

2/3

2/2

J. Robinson

1/1

1

1/1

Dileo

1

1

1/1

Jackson

1

2/3

3/4

Darboh

Chesson

Kwiatkowski

1/1

Moore

Funchess

4/4

4/4

Williams

Toussaint

0/1

0/1

Smith

0/1

0/1

2/2

Rawls

Notice the large drop in 0s. Obviously. The only routine drop was a Jackson out when Michigan was backed up on the goal line. Wouldn't have gotten the first down but would at least have gotten Michigan away from the goal line and give Hagerup an opportunity to boom one. Smith's 0/1 was of course painful.

Heroes?

Denard! Also Funchess.

Goats?

Omameh had a rough day on the OL.

What does it mean for UMass and the future?

UMass will be a walkover.

As for the future, if Denard puts up the same sort of accuracy against UMass that ND game will be monstrous for the fan excitement level. Put up a bunch of completions against the Irish and keep that streak going and it's that MSU game for the Roses. Revert and we're all feeling pretty crappy about ourselves.

Toussaint gets an INC; the right side of the line is the biggest worry now, along with the tight ends holding up against bigger teams.

But, hey, Funchess and a rapidly developing Gardner combine with Denard's running to pose a tricky question for upcoming defenses. The passing just has to be for real.

Substitution notes: OL was steady until Lewan went out with a thankfully minor injury, at which point it went from Lewan-Barnum-Mealer-Omameh-Schofield to Schofield-Barnum-Mealer-Burzynski-Omameh. At TE, Moore went out early and it was mostly Kwiatkowski with Williams appearing in two-TE sets. Funchess got in very late.

WR starters were Roundtree, Gallon, Gardner. Jeremy Jackson and Dileo were the next most-frequent participants; Jerald Robinson got a little run. At RB, Smith and Rawls and only them. Only Hopkins at FB.

Show? Show.

[Note: I forgot about my RUN+/- separation, but got them for the run chart. I'm probably going to dump the extra confirmation since it's useless.]

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M22

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 3-4

Pass

Deep slant

Gardner

Inc

Safety walks up on slot and Bama shows seven man front. Michigan goes play action at Gardner, who runs a deep slant after being given inside leverage. I think this is a crappy route that does not get the requisite separation because he just kind of drifts inside instead of cuts. Throw is accurate, Milliner makes a great play to break it up. (CA+, 0, protection 1/1)

M22

2

10

Shotgun trips TE

1

1

3

Nickel even

Pass

Flare

Smith

9

Gallon motions into a trips. Moore releases downfield, holding the corner in a little bit, Denard reads it and hits Smith on a little flare. Smith runs through an ankle tackle and nears the first down; gets a crappy spot. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1, would like to RPS +half this but let's not get crazy)

M31

3

1

I-Form Big

2

1

2

???

Run

Iso

Smith

3

Lewan(+0.5) and Kwiatkowksi(+0.5) combine to kick out the OLB; Barnum(+0.5) just does handle the playside DE, and Hopkins(+0.5) gets enough on his lead block to give Smith a gap.

RUN+: Lewan, Kwiatkowski, Hopkins, Barnum(0.5 all)

RUN-:

M34

1

10

I-Form 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel even

Pass

Slant

Roundtree

Inc

Safety rolls up. Michigan repeats their first play with the same result. Milliner is all over Roundtree (in a legal way) and breaks it up. (CA, 0, protection 1/1). If this is in front of Roundtree more maybe there's a shot, but that's an NFL window.

M34

2

10

Shotgun 2-back TE

2

1

2

Nickel even

Run

Inverted veer

Smith

-1

Eight in the box with the safety rolled up; this is unbalanced so TE cannot go downfield. Michigan pulls Barnum and uses Hopkins as a lead blocker. Playside DE is inside of Hopkins, so if this is a read it's a give, but then why block the guy? (Because he blocked you.) Denard gives and Smith heads outside, but there's a free guy on the edge and he shuts it down. RPS -1. This is not the blocking's fault, it's Alabama defeating the play. Picture-paged.

Borges actually gets Roundtree open at the sticks, but they let the backside guy go and he pressures Denard, who doesn't really have time to set and step into it. Ball sails. (IN, 0, protection ½, team -1)

Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 11 min 1st Q.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M29

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Nickel even

Run

Inverted veer

Rawls

0

Alabama sends the corner down and plunges the DE inside. Denard reads that the DE is diving down and hands off. Corner nails Rawls. RPS -2. Also picture-paged.

RUN+: N/A

RUN-: N/A

M29

2

10

Shogun 2-back tight

2

0

3

Base 3-4

Pass

PA corner

Gallon

Inc

Corner pulls up on the short route, opening up a corner for about 15 yards. Denard misses; again, some token pressure on the edge seems to have spooked him. Just overthrew it. (IN, 1, protection 1/1) If Gallon was 6'2 he's got a good shot at this.

M29

3

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 3-4

Penalty

12 men

--

5

yoooo deeeed

M34

3

5

Shotgun trips

1

0

4

Nickel even

Pass

Fly

Gardner

Inc

Gardner gets a step but takes a weird gallop as he does so and drifts a step or so inside. Denard's throw is pretty good but Gardner's not getting there fast enough. He leaps and gets a hand on it, but that's it. (MA, 1, protection 2/2)

Almost ceases being there on the snap as the LB to that side backs out closer to Gallon. Still not enough as Jackson(+1) hacks down the LB out there and Gallon(+1) turns it up quickly enough to burst past the LB despite being a yard or so inside the numbers. (CA, 3, screen)

RUN+: Gallon, Jackson

RUN-:

M32

2

2

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Nickel even

Run

Iso

Smith

1

Mealer(-1) leaves his block too early and Barnum can't keep the guy outside; he does okay. Omameh gets stalemated by the other DT, Schofield same, the end result is a big pile of dudes a yard past the LOS.

M33

3

1

I-Form Big

2

2

1

4-4 under

Run

Iso

Rawls

2

Barnum(+1) takes a DT who's trying to slant and buries him. Lewan(+0.5) prevents the guy he's got from coming under him, creating a crease. Two guys are coming up that crease; Hopkins(+0.5) submarines one and Rawls falls forward for the first.

M35

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

4-3 even

Run

Sprint counter

Rawls

-2 (Pen -10)

One high with a seventh guy in the box. They run the sprint counter from last year (what is it a counter to, though?). Lewan pulls. Schofield(-1) gets chucked by the DE as Lewan nears; Lewan is now running directly into Schofield. Rawls(-2) still has an opportunity to just go straight upfield for a few yards. Instead he tries to bounce it, which works about as well as you might expect. Refs get Lewan for holding, which I don't see, and miss an obvious facemask on Rawls. Refs -3. Hoke said something about this being a BS call on Lewan, FWIW. BWS picture-paged.

M25

1

20

I-Form twins

2

1

2

Base 3-4

Pass

PA corner

Gardner

Inc

Bama does not care that we are running PA from the I. They're all over all three guys. Denard throws it at Gardner and does get it over the corner. It's also over Gardner. Could be IN but Robinson had no better options. (CA, 0, protection 2/2) Also, watch Gardner's route. He holds up. If he runs through the route this is a potential DO.

M25

2

20

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel even

Pass

PA fly

Roundtree

Int

Milliner chucks Roundtree OOB and intercepts. It's hard to tell but it certainly looks like this happened after the ball was released. Either way, this is a frustrating playcall. Second and twenty with Roundtree matched up against their best corner, let's have guys with free runs at Denard and see what happens. (BR, 0, protection N/A, RPS -1)

Drive Notes: Interception, 0-14, 2 min 1st Q.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M26

1

10

Shotgun trips TE

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Pass

Bubble screen

Gallon

9

Robinson actually double clutches this, which is bad, but it still works as the WRs come through. Roundtree(+1) puts a safety on the ground. Gardner does likewise, and then Roundtree gets another block that Gallon(+1) runs behind for good yardage. (CA, 3, screen)

RUN+: Roundtree, Gardner, Gallon

RUN-:

M35

2

1

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Nickel even

Pass

PA slant

Gallon

Inc

This one's actually open. Not sure if Gallon is more of a threat or it's just because this is not Milliner. Robinson misses somewhat, but this is catchable. Gallon doesn't catch it. (CA, 2, protection 1/1)

M35

3

1

Shotgun 2TE

1

2

2

Base 3-4

Run

Speed option

Robinson

3

Smith flares out for a pitch but Denard is just running this one from the word go. Blocking is okay on the frontside except for Williams(-1), who gets beat. Schofield(+0.5) just manages to delay the backside pursuit and Denard(+1) hits a very small gap to convert.

M38

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 3-4

Run

Iso

Smith

2

Running at the backside. There is a S containing Denard so he hands, but not sure this is really a read. Bubble open, but again these are not reads. Omameh(-1) lets his guy spin back to the hole. Schofield(-1) does as well. Hopkins blocks one LB; the other is there to help tackle. Possible that Smith could have cut to a backside hole if Schofield doesn't lose his block. RUN-: Schofield, Omameh

M40

2

8

I-form twins

2

1

2

Base 3-4

Run

Power off tackle

Smith

-2

Schofield(-2) loses his guy on the backside of the play and he tackles. That's the easy stuff. Barnum(-1) loses his guy on a double, too, despite blocking down. I do like Hopkins(+1) blocking the stuffing out of a guy, may have gotten the edge. BWS picture-paged.

RUN+: Hopkins

RUN-: Schofield(3), Barnum

M38

3

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel even

Pass

Fly

J. Robinson

Inc

It's third down so we throw it 30 yards. Alabama blitzes, sending six. Michigan picks it up. Robinson panics and chucks a back-foot throw when just scrambling out of the pocket probably puts him in epic space against man coverage. J. Robinson is blanketed, DB knocks it away. Pass was actually right on the money, but the coverage was superb. (CA, 0, protection 3/3) Where's the dig route?

Drive Notes: Punt, 0-21, 13 min 2nd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M5

1

10

Shotgun trips

1

0

4

Nickel even

Run

Inside zone

Smith

0

Bubble wide open, no threat of Denard, OL cannot get any push, Smith runs up the backs of his guys for nothing. Barnum(-1) pushed back. Smith(-1) could have run behind the double but did not.

AAAAARGH. Anyway: hole almost forms. Barnum manages to get his body across the backside DT, but only with his back; that guy comes around. Omameh(-0.5) and Mealer(-0.5) can't kick the other DT and the narrow path is closed down by the guy coming around Barnum.

M12

3

3

Shotgun trips

1

0

4

Nickel even

Pass

Flare

Smith

2

Denard makes a somewhat bad read on the LB and should go to Kwiatkowski underneath as the LB bugs out for the flat. He had a window. This is still complete and has a shot at the first so I won't BR it, but he could have done better. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)

Drive Notes: Punt, 0-24, 7 min 2nd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M2

1

10

I-Form

2

1

2

4-3 under

Pass

PA fly

Gardner

Inc

Plenty of time for Robinson as Michigan goes with just three guys in the route. Denard tries it deep to Gardner, who's covered again, but he has no other options. Pass is a tiny bit short but 40 yards downfield. Gardner has it in his hands; Milliner punches it out. (CA+, 1, protection 3/3)

M2

2

10

I-Form

2

1

2

4-3 under

Run

Power off tackle

Rawls

1

Williams tears through Omameh(-2) and is right in the hole. Barnum ends up going outside of the Hopkins block as the playside LB comes in to spill power outside. Rawls goes inside. Barnum is not a factor on the LB, who tackles at the LOS. Not sure if this is a Rawls problem or a Barnum problem. I get why both of them did that. I'm guessing Rawls, but tenuous. RUN-: Omameh(2), Rawls

Okay crease but only okay. Omameh(+0.5) gets decent push on the nose, Mealer gets out to the LB, Barnum is eh on the other DT, and Rawls can fit in this gap until the LB sheds Mealer in a tight space.

M28

2

7

Shotgun 2TE

2

1

2

Base 3-4

Pass

PA stop and go

Gallon

71

Max pro again and Alabama is containing, so plenty of time. Denard can load up and fire deep to Gallon, who's the first M receiver to have an inch of separation all night. Denard hits Gallon right in stride at the 20; Gallon gets to the goal line before he can get tracked down. (DO, 2, protection 3/3), RPS +1. Why aren't we throwing at this corner instead of Milliner?

O1

1

G

Goal line

2

2

1

Goal line

Penalty

Illegal sub

--

-5

O6

1

G

Shotgun 2TE

1

2

2

Goal line

Run

QB power

Robinson

6

Schofield(-2) gets beat by the backside DT as Omameh pulls.This guy gets into Omameh in the backfield and destroys his pull. LB in the hole now gets cut by Smith. Denard his headed outside where there is contain, which gets the Alabama DE to pull upfield. Denard(+2) changes direction in a flash, heading straight upfield. Omameh(+1) gets to the hole now and picks through Smith, blocking the guy he just cut. He blows the LB off the ball; Barnum(+1) does the same, and Denard can burrow behind those guys to fall into the endzone.

RUN+: Robinson(2), Barnum, Omameh

RUN-: Schofield

Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-31, 2 min 2nd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M22

1

10

Shotgun trips

1

0

4

Nickel even

Run

Inverted veer

Smith

3

Same stuff minus Hopkins. DE comes down, Denard hands off, Smith ends up on the edge against an unblocked guy as Dileo comes down on a linebacker and Jackson flares out on one of the three guys in M2M to the trips side. That leaves another guy, who tackles with help from that DE peeling back. RPS -1. No run plus minus, as there were no relevant blocks.

M25

2

7

Ace 3-wide

2

1

2

Base 3-4

Penalty

False start

Lewan

-5

Der.

M20

2

12

Shogun 2-back

2

0

3

Base 3-4

Pass

PA quick seam

Dileo

20

Not sure if this is an iffy pass or an attempt to keep it away from the defender but knowing Denard it's probably the former. An easier catch would probably not have resulted in anything bad. Dileo spins 360 degrees, grabbing the ball halfway through, and keeps his feet for a nice gain past the Bama secondary. This a borderline 1 or 2; I'll give the one for keeping his feet. (MA, 1, protection 1/1, RPS +1)

M40

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel even

Run

QB sweep

Robinson

2

Mealer and Omameh both pull. Kwiatkowski(+0.5) seals the playside end. Barnum(-1) gets out but his attempted cut is not effective; that LB gets up and gets outside, hitting near the LOS. Smith just ran into the secondary; would prefer it if he helped out here. At least this time we're asking them to beat a block. A great play by the LB here; if Smith had doubled down on this Denard is getting some yards.

M42

2

8

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Nickel even

Pass

Flare

Gallon

Inc

Michigan brings Gallon across the formation and then fakes a stretch(!) into the boundary(!) that fools the backside LB. Denard has Gallon wide open for quite a few yards and misses. (IN, 0, protection N/A, RPS +1)

M42

3

8

Shotgun trips stack TE

1

1

3

Nickel even

Pass

Scramble

Robinson

5

Michigan rolls to the field, right into a safety blitz. Smith can only chop one of them; other guy is right in Denard's face, forcing a scramble that doesn't get there. (PR, N/A, protection N/A, RPS -1)

Drive Notes: Punt, 7-31, 12 min 3rd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M35

1

10

Shotgun trips

1

0

4

Nickel even

Run

Zone stretch

Rawls

5

Bubble is open as they've got two safeties back, but M runs. It's a stretch into the boundary, which is a little odd. Rawls(-1) misses the cutback lane behind the backside tackle that would have gotten him going NS against a DE trying to contain Robinson and only coming back later. He ends up bouncing off Omameh and going around to the outside, which somehow works. Lewan(+1) bludgeoned the DE there and Gardner(+1) spent a long time fending off a corner. Lucky, lucky.

M40

2

5

Shotgun trips

1

0

4

Base 3-4

Pass

Scramble

Robinson

5

Denard is looking at Jackson on a little slant at the sticks and decides against it... I think if he throws it on time it gets there but hard to tell. Instead he decides to take off and run for stuff. (SCR, N/A, protection 2/2)

M45

1

10

Shotgun 4-wide

1

0

4

Nickel even

Run

QB inside zone

Robinson

9

Alabama slants under the line and blows up the blocking. Mealer(-1) is left in a heap, Lewan(-1) also falls to the ground as his guy gets inside of him, and Barnum(-1) releases to the second level without checking. Alabama's guys fall, too, which gives Denard(+3) an opportunity. He hops, then hops again outside; Schofield(+0.5) does a decent job maintaining his block and this gives Denard the edge. Once he's out there he uses a dodgy block from Gardner to get outside and jets for near first-down yardage. Standard bitching about lack of Denard. Musberger finally gets to tell us Usain Bolt story with 6 minutes left in the third quarter.

RUN+: Denard(3)

RUN-: Lewan, Mealer, Barnum

O46

2

1

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Nickel even

Run

Inside zone

Smith

0

Odd blocking here as AJ Williams goes backside into the gap just inside Lewan; Bama NT two-gaps on Barnum(-1) and when Smith picks the hole to the frontside comes off to tackle. Crappy read by Smith? I don't know. Don't know why you send a guy to the second level and not help on Williams here.

O46

2

1

Shotgun 2TE

1

2

2

Base 3-4

Pass

Speed option

Rawls

-2

Bama has everyone within a few yards of the LOS; Sunseri is deepest at eight. Michigan orbits Rawls and runs a speed option; they block it well enough but Sunseri is tearing like a bat out of hell for Rawls and plants him two yards in the backfield. Ingram Rawls is not. RPS -1; this probably gets the first down except for no deep safeties.

O48

4

3

Shotgun 2TE

1

2

2

Base 3-4

Run

Broken play

Robinson

2

Robinson(-1) fumbles the snap, picks it up, and starts running around on a broken play. He gets tripped up, reaches for the first down, and doesn't quite make it. Overturn is correct.

Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 7-31, 4 min 3rd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M14

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel even

Run

Sprint counter

Smith

1

Schofield(-2) gets destroyed by the LB he's assigned to. That guy comes through the block and tackles Smith. Otherwise this is okay, though it's not fooling anyone. Since M never runs any plays that look like this but are not the counter, the counter action does not work.

M15

2

9

Shotgun trips stack

1

0

4

Nickel even

Pass

Screen

Smith

Inc (Pen +15)

Blitzing LB is straight up the middle too fast. Denard is hit as he throws and the ball is behind Smith. (PR, 0, protection 0/1, RPS -1) M gets bailed out by the LB getting a hit on Denard's head. Very marginal call.

M30

1

10

Shotgun 2TE twins

1

2

2

Base 3-4

Pass

PA fly

Gardner

Inc

Fake inside zone with Barnum pulling to the backside, which they don't do. Three guys go out, two going deep another sort of deep. No one is really open. Denard chucks it deep at Gardner, who has a shot at it before being tripped by the safety. They throw a flag, and then pick it up. [fumes] This was a fifty yard throw that beat bracketed coverage and was a yard inside the edge of the field. (DO, 0, protection 2/2).

M30

2

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Nickel even

Run

Zone stretch

Smith

22

Omameh(-1) can't get a cut or any control on the backside DT so Smith(+3) can't really find anything on the cutback despite Barnum(+1) and Mealer(+1) blowing the frontside guy almost to the sideline. That guy eventually splits the two and comes up on Smith, who miraculously hops outside and shoestrings the sideline for 22. Lewan(+0.5) and Hopkins(+0.5) had a hand in it.

O48

1

10

Shotgun trips TE

1

1

3

Base 3-4

Run

QB power

Robinson

4

Alabama tips a huge blitz from the field with six guys at the line and no one within the two outside receivers except one guy eight yards downfield. Michigan runs at the boundary again. Kwiatkowski(-2) whiffs on the playside DE entirely, allowing him outside. He runs into Barnum, cuts off Smith, and forces Denard to cut up. Denard is into that hole before Omameh can get there, unblocked guys, tackle.

Nickel rolls down. I think this is an iso but it's hard to tell since the blocking gets blown up so hardcore. Mealer(-1) loses his guy into the gap Hopkins is attacking, and Barnum(-1) is stood up at the LOS. Smith goes away from the gap Hopkins did because there is no gap and unblocked guys tackle. RUN-: Mealer, Barnum

M7

2

11

I-Form twins

2

1

2

Base 3-4

Pass

PA corner

Gallon

19

Unbalanced, Michigan goes PA, no one is buying it. Schofield(-1) is beaten but does manage to maintain contact and shove the guy who beat him past Denard, who sidesteps, sets up, and threads a dart to Gallon 20 yards downfield. Same throw he made to Gardner earlier except the WR didn't misjudge it. Tough play all around. (DO, 2, protection ½, Schofield -1)

M26

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Nickel even

Run

Iso

Smith

2

They try the other side of the line. Omameh(-0.5) does better with his guy but can't really control him; Schofield(-1) cannot kick the DE. Those two guys converge to tackle as Smith passes the LOS.

Ugh, Musberger calls M and Alabama two of the great brands in college football. Shoot me. Mealer(-1) gets over aggressive on a stunt and a rusher slides through right up the middle. Smith takes him out, Denard gets squirrelly and chucks one over Gardner's head. (IN, 0, protection ½, Mealer -1)

Drive Notes: Punt, 14-34, 10 min 4th Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

DForm

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M35

1

10

Shotgun trips

1

1

3

Nickel even

Pass

Rollout hitch

Roundtree

5

Short pitch and catch. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)

M40

2

5

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel even

Pass

Slant

Roundtree

7

Milliner turns for three-deep and the slant opens up. Now just trying to bleed yards. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)

M47

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel even

Pass

TE out

Kwiatkowski

6

Again open underneath as Alabama is playing off. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)

Yes. There is the YAAARGH FALARGH that YAAARGHs about Denard getting about two carries in the first half and FALARGHs about the idea that fate has consigned us an offensive coordinator who can make delightful minute adjustments in a West Coast passing offense and a quarterback who can't run them that. Then there is the YAAARGH FALARGH that YAAARGHs about the idea that Rich Rodriguez might have some good ideas when it comes to offense and FALARGHs whenever this here guy points out that Borges is not an invincible superman.

Didn't Rich Rodriguez almost get West Virginia to a national title game?

Yeah.

And put up 48 against Oklahoma and 38 against Georgia in BCS games?

Yeah.

The former then.

An excellent choice.

BUT SIR I WOULD LIKE YOU TO PROVIDE AN IRRITATING DISCLAIMER FIRST

Like, oh my God. Alabama does that to everyone. It is virtually impossible to tell how Michigan will do against an earthly defense when this is basically the best defense since M 1997 minus some important guys and the guys replacing the important guys are dudes like DeMarcus Milliner, who is insane. Insaaaaaaaaaaane.

What happened Saturday may not have any bearing at all on what happens the rest of the year.

[A reminder about what this means can be found in the UFR FAQ. Note that screens behind the LOS are in parens, so in the first half of 2011 Denard threw 66 balls labeled catchable, 54 downfield and 12 screens. The DSR metric is Dead On and Catchable balls divided by all throws not marked Marginal, Pressure, or Scramble.]

Opponent

DO

CA

MA

IN

BR

TA

BA

PR

SCR

DSR

2011 through MSU

13

66(12)

11(1)

34(1)

17

2

3

10

4

55%

2011 after MSU

9

77(9)

7

17

9

6(1)

5(2)

9

5

69%

Alabama

4

15(2)

1

4

3

-

-

3(1)

1

71%

Yeah.

lol wut

I know. A couple caveats: three of those CAs were late when Milliner had lost interest and a fourth was borderline on a slant that took Gallon off his feet (but was still very catchable), and one of the BRs was of course the BRX—the X stands for XTREME—on the pick six. On the other hand, I marked the Dileo seam an MA because it was behind the guy when you can make a case that he was keeping it away from the defender, and now I feel guilty for asserting that "knowing Denard" it had to be inaccurate. Blame on the first interception can be split between Denard, Borges (no other options), Roundtree, and possibly the refs. Call it a push.

In terms of accuracy, Denard had a good day. Maybe very good. Those first two slants are in the receiver's chest. The problem was that Milliner was also in said chests.

That kid is nasty, and Michigan's wide receivers could not get separation from him unless he fell down. Maybe there was a square foot in which the ball could be caught without Milliner making a play on it… maybe. I doubt it.

Sometimes when it looked like Denard missed, it was his receiver blowing the play. This deep corner looked like an overthrow live, but the replay shows that 1) ain't nobody open, really, and 2) despite that if Gardner does not first slow up and then misjudge the ball once it's in the air this is probably a fantastic completion:

Later in the game, Gallon would run the route correctly for a twenty-yard completion. Even when Denard chucked a back foot throw to Jerald Robinson thirty yards downfield on third and ten, it was right on the money. It was broken up by Milliner, of course, and I'm leery of him trying that again, but we're a results-based charting service.

This was actually encouraging. Possibly really encouraging. I know, I know.

But the horrible horrible interceptions!

Yeah, we got the three NOOOO Denard throws: the two picks and a chuck-and-pray to a bracketed Roundtree that was five yards to long and almost intercepted. You'd like for Denard to find someone else, but on at least two of those there was no one else open. So then you'd like him to throw it away or RUN FOR THE LOVE OF GOD JUST RUN, but we're stuck with it, I guess.

This is a situation that, like all situations, may improve when you're not playing Alabama. Various YPAs from veteran QBs against Alabama the last couple years:

Tyler Wilson, Arkansas: 5.3

Clint Moseley, Auburn: 3.4

Ryan Mallett, Arkansas: 9.4

John Brantley, Florida: 6.5

Kirk Cousins, MSU: 7.5

Denard Robinson, M: 7.7

If Michigan's receivers were capable of getting separation—or Michigan had manufactured some with play action Denard—things would have been fine. If Robinson's accuracy continues against mortal defenses he'll have outstanding numbers and Borges will get a gold star.

What about Gardner?

Well, first, the receiverchart. I'll leave the season numbers blank because obviously.

[Passers are rated by catchability:

0: uncatchable

1: very tough

2: moderately tough

3: routine

The 0/X in all passes marked zero is implied.]

Player

0

1

2

3

0

1

2

3

Gardner

4

0/2

1/1

Roundtree

2

0/1

2/2

Gallon

1

0/1

2/3

1/1

J. Robinson

1

Dileo

1/1

Jackson

1/1

Darboh

Chesson

Kwiatkowski

1/1

Moore

Funchess

Williams

Toussaint

Smith

2/2

Rawls

So there's obviously a huge difference between the accuracy credited Denard above and the catch rankings above. Part of that is Milliner and other guys always covering everything. Part of that that I didn't adjust for crappy routes. This is supposed to be a hands measure. I can only hand-wave at the routes.

Anyway, a routine day in limited opportunities. Hands were fine, separation was not.

And Gardner?

Obviously looked very, very raw. The corner route above is evidence enough of that, and on the touchdown I don't think the 360-degree spin-around is a standard move. His routes suck, but he's a 6'4" guy who can leap out of the gym. We'll see how good that speed is against mortal teams. He should get better day by day; Michigan really needs him.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the freshmen as early as next week.

The run game.

Look away.

Offensive Line

Player

+

-

Total

Notes

Lewan

2.5

1

1.5

Above zero!

Barnum

3.5

6

-2.5

Not above zero.

Mealer

1

4.5

-3.5

Now a lot more worried about Molk transition after flip

Omameh

1.5

7

-5.5

Blown up, but not a surprise

Schofield

1

9

-8

woof

Kwiatkowski

1

2

-1

Current nominal starter.

Moore

-

-

-

Injured early.

Williams

-

1

-1

Hard to tell.

Funchess

-

-

-

One play.

TOTAL

10.5

30.5

26%

All time worst.

Backs

Player

+

-

T

Notes

Robinson

6

1

5

I don't want to talk about it.

Bellomy

-

-

-

Toussaint

-

-

-

DNP

Rawls

-

4

-4

Pretty much Mark Ingram.

Smith

3

1

2

Basically the one sideline jaunt.

Hayes

-

-

-

DNP

Hopkins

2.5

-

2.5

Hard to judge since he rarely had a shot at going one on one

Kerridge

-

-

-

DNP

TOTAL

11.5

6

5.5

I don't want to talk about it.

Receivers

Player

+

-

T

Notes

Gardner

1

-

1

Roundtree

1

-

1

Gallon

2

-

2

Jackson

1

-

1

Dileo

-

-

-

--

J. Robinson

-

-

-

Darboh

-

-

-

--

TOTAL

5

-

5

omg bubble bubble bubble

Metrics

Player

+

-

T

Notes

Protection

26

10

72%

Lewan –3, Team –2, Schofield –2, Mealer –1, Burzynski -2

RPS

4

9

-5

Not like it mattered but it didn't help.

So that's the line getting annihilated and getting no plays from the runners save a couple from Denard. Let's not take any of this too seriously until next week.

Ugh, Rawls?

Yeah, for a north-south mooseback he had a case of the Shaws. Go upfield, young man.

Other running type things?

Fitz will obviously be a huge boost. Neither of the guys who got carries broke tackle one, both missed holes, neither juked guy one. I really, really want to reserve judgment on the offensive line until next week. They were straight-up destroyed; let's see what happens later in the season.

Borges said he didn't regret how little Denard ran, and that Alabama was doing stuff with its safeties that prevented Michigan from going with him.

(The other was Smith's 22-yarder.) For two, you can just call his number. There is nothing preventing you from doing that instead of handing off to Rawls or Smith. If you're going into the game thinking "don't get hurt!" why are you even playing it?

By the time Michigan was down a billion, okay, whatever, the next two quarters are an exhibition. If this happens in a critical Big Ten game that Michigan ends up losing, though, the torches and pitchforks will be out in force.

It's not about scheme!

That's the DeBord way to look at it. Players can get beat; so can coaches. Both played a factor in the loss. When you hand off and there's an unblocked guy waiting for you…

…the blocker isn't at fault. Because there isn't one. I'm not sure why Michigan thought they could get away with straight-up inverted veers against Saban nine months after they tore up OSU.

In a weird way, I'm actually encouraged about Borges long-term since his response to a defense that stacks the box is to throw at it. Once you get the receivers and the line and Morris in, that stuff is going to work, and we won't have to facepalm after yet another run into a stacked front on first and ten.

But it is about scheme, in addition to the players getting whipped. A failure that comprehensive touches everyone. E-fact.

Heroes?

Gallon. Maybe Denard? Sort of Denard.

Goats?

Even adjusting for level of competition the OL was very disappointing. While Lewan got off easiest in the run chart, he also got three penalties, two of them legit.

What does it mean for next week and the future?

God willing, nothing whatsoever.

A few things I'll be looking to confirm or disconfirm before Notre Dame:

Michigan goes into 2012 with the rarest of all birds (recently at least): a senior returning starter at quarterback. Since we can't count half a season from an injured Henne, the last time we saw this senior-type thing under center was the last time a QB wore 16: Navarre. It's been nine years!

History too has been a bit rough on senior QBs. Brady shared much of his last season with Henson. Todd Collins played almost as much as senior Grbac, who took away half of Michael Taylor's seminal season, who nabbed the bulk of Demetrius Brown's last year.

Since Bo's first year Denard is the 14th senior starter at Michigan. The other 13, by stats:

Season

Name

Comp

Att

% Comp

TD

Int

Yds

Efficiency

2007

Chad Henne

162

278

58.3%

17

9

1938

130.5

2003

John Navarre

270

456

59.2%

24

10

3331

133.6

1999

Tom Brady

214

341

62.8%

20

6

2586

142.3

1997

Brian Griese

193

307

62.9%

17

6

2293

140.0

1994

Todd Collins

186

288

64.6%

13

10

2518

146.0

1992

Elvis Grbac

129

199

64.8%

17

12

1640

150.2

1989

Michael Taylor

74

121

61.2%

11

3

1081

161.2

1986

Jim Harbaugh

180

277

65.0%

10

11

2729

151.7

1983

Steve Smith

106

205

51.7%

13

8

1420

123.0

1980

John Wangler

117

212

55.2%

16

9

1522

131.9

1978

Rick Leach

78

158

49.4%

17

6

1283

145.5

1974

Dennis Franklin

58

104

55.8%

8

5

933

146.9

1970

Don Moorhead

87

190

45.8%

8

6

1167

105.0

I'll save you some of the suspense: those are good efficiencies. And when that starter wasn't dinged it made for awesome seasons. Even counting '07, over these 13 seasons Michigan went 127-26-3, went to Pasadena 7 times (plus an Orange and Sugar and no bowl one year when Michigan finished 3rd overall), finished in the Top 10 of the Associated Press 11 times (avg finish: 7th), and won a National Championship. Small sample size and whatnot, but special years do seem to follow the seniors around.

You also probably already figured that since players generally improve year to year, that senior quarterbacks are best. What I'm looking at here is whether there's maybe something about being a senior, whether its age, or whether that mythical senior tag has some weight. To the charts!

Click embiggens. The mythical senior tag didn't seem to do anything except as a function of experience. When broken up by age it wasn't any different than when broken up by how many passes he threw before coming. What age does seem to do is reduce variance. Look at the grouping of 5th year seniors (light blue). There's not enough data here to make a conclusion but I am intrigued by this concept of 5th year players producing no worse than a rating

A better way to decide if age or class means anything at all would be to use the Mathlete's database. Mathlete: you should do this some day: chart year to year improvement of quarterbacks and see what the progression curve looks like. What I'm doing here is just working with Bentley numbers for Michigan quarterbacks, since at least for these guys I can trust we know most of the exigent circumstances behind different swings. Just pulling returning starters and major contributors. In: John Navarre's 77 attempts in 2000, Tate Forcier's 84 attempts in 2010. Out: Drew Henson's 47 attempts in 1998. Show things:

Year

Avg. Eff Change

Denard

Senior

+1.4

?

Junior

+16.6

-9.8

Sophomore

+7.3

+58.0 (!)

<----Upchurch

Denard's freshman to sophomore leap was high, not unheard of. Rick Leach leapt a ludicrous 76.1 points in efficiency between his freshman and sophomore years, a matter of going from 32% completions and 3 TDs to 12 interceptions to 47.6% completion rating and a 13/8 TD/INT ratio. Michael Taylor made a leap similar to Denard's between his Junior and Senior seasons (first and second as at least a part-time starter). Drew Henson, Jim Harbaugh and Demetrius Brown also had huge leaps forward as juniors. If you're smelling a trend, these were all guys who to varying degrees considered "mobile" quarterbacks.

Visualized:

The way efficiency is wired, a shift in TD/INT ratio, a shift in completion %, and a shift in yards per attempt. Big chart of returning passers (either starters or guys who got a significant amount of playing time the year before) so we can see if any one of these factors might stand out. Bolding numbers that I think made the difference:

Season

Name

Att

Att-DIF

Comp% DIF

INT/TD DIF

Avg-DIF

Efficiency

Eff-D

1976

Rick Leach, So

105

+5

+15.6%

+10/-4

+2.5

151.1

+76.1

2000

Drew Henson, Jr

237

+147

+9.4%

+15/+2

+3.0

159.4

+49.6

1985

Jim Harbaugh, Jr*

227

+116

+9.8%

+15/+1

+2.2

157.9

+49.6

1988

Demetrius Brown, Jr*

84

-84

+9.5%

-5/-16

+1.8

158.2

+45.5

1991

Elvis Grbac, Jr*

254

-12

+6.7%

+4/-4

+1.0

161.7

+24.5

1989

Michael Taylor, Sr*

121

-1

-1.1%

+6/-1

+1.1

161.2

+22.8

1974

Dennis Franklin, Sr

104

+37

+2.0%

+4/0

+1.0

146.9

+21.4

1996

Brian Griese, Jr*

61

-177

+4.0%

-10/-8

+1.8

137.7

+19.0

2006

Chad Henne, Jr

328

-54

+3.5%

-1/0

+1.0

143.4

+13.8

2003

John Navarre, Sr*

456

+8

+3.9%

+3/+3

+0.8

133.6

+11.4

1999

Tom Brady, Sr*

341

-9

+1.6%

+5/-6

+0.1

142.3

+10.6

1978

Rick Leach, Sr

158

-16

-2.4%

+2/-3

+0.4

145.5

+10.6

1993

Todd Collins, Jr*

296

+195

-1.5%

+10/+4

+1.6

149.3

+9.4

1973

Dennis Franklin, Jr

67

-56

+5.8%

-2/+3

+1.3

125.5

+8.8

2002

John Navarre, Jr*

448

+63

+1.6%

+2/-6

+0.2

122.2

+5.7

1970

Don Moorhead, Sr

190

-20

-1.4%

+2/-1

+0.1

105.0

+4.6

1996

Scott Dreisbach, So*

269

+163

+2.6%

+9/-6

-0.5

126.7

+2.8

1997

Brian Griese, Sr*

307

+246

+5.5%

+14/+4

-0.9

140.0

+2.3

2010

Tate Forcier, So

84

-197

+5.6%

-9/-6

-0.2

130.2

+2.0

1982

Steve Smith, Jr

227

+17

+5.8%

-1/+2

-0.3

125.1

-0.6

1983

Steve Smith, Sr

205

-22

-0.3%

-1/-5

-0.7

123.0

-2.1

2005

Chad Henne, So

382

-17

-1.8%

-2/-4

-0.3

129.6

-3.0

1990

Elvis Grbac, So*

266

+150

-4.7%

-8/+6

+0.1

137.2

-3.0

1994

Todd Collins, Sr*

288

-8

+0.7%

-3/+4

+0.3

146.0

-3.3

1986

Jim Harbaugh, Sr*

277

+50

+1.1%

-8/+5

+1.1

151.7

-6.2

2011

Denard Robinson, Jr

258

-33

-7.5%

+2/+4

-0.4

139.7

-9.8

1992

Elvis Grbac, Sr*

199

-55

-0.1%

-8/+6

+0.0

150.2

-11.5

2007

Chad Henne, Sr

278

-50

-3.6%

-5/+1

-0.7

130.5

-12.8

1977

Rick Leach, Jr

174

+69

+4.1%

+2/+1

-1.5

134.9

-16.2

1980

John Wangler, Sr*

212

+82

-4.8%

+8/+2

-3.8

131.9

-30.1

2001

John Navarre, So*

385

+308

+1.8%

+11/+12

-1.2

116.4

-30.8

Bolded things of note: If I bolded the name or the amount of attempts you can just discount that guy since his year to year stats are thrown off by a huge difference in his role, e.g. John Navarre went from a guy who murdered MAC teams to full-time Big Ten passer who chucked things in the direction of Marquise Walker. Rick Leach basically learned how to pass a football (to his teammates). Henson and Harbaugh had matching junior leaps as they grew from leggy guy who might throw to polished passers.

Demetrius Brown had his numbers saved by Bo halving the amount of pass plays and going full-tilt option. Tom Brady stopped had a major turnaround in TD/INT as a senior, while Todd Collins and Jim Harbaugh went the other way. Johnny Wangler looks to have suffered (EDIT: was this when Carter injured? This is before my time.) his senior season, as YPA dropped terribly and completion suffered a little. I'm not sure Grbac's TD-INT ration can be explained by the similar loss of Desmond Howard—it's possible Dez's Heisman campaign simply separated itself from two similar yet pedestrian seasons.

What does this all mean for Denard? Most of the seniors touched up their games. Most had their big leaps as juniors, but I should point out of the 13 guys to make the biggest one-year leaps, 8 of them were redshirt juniors or seniors, i.e. Denard's age. Also working for him is running the same offense that he did last year. The transition ultimately came more to him than the other way around, though, so don't expect miracles. Working against him will be the loss of his favorite target, and the effective replacement of a tight end for a second back, which isn't always great for the passing game. Unless a deep threat emerges from the unknowns in the receiver corps, expect his YPA avg. to dip again, with a corresponding rise in completion % (something most seniors seemed to have done). I'd also venture Denard will cut down further on his interception and probably get his TDs up the same as Michigan's mite-y backs and receivers score more with screens. +4/-4 would be excellent. Meanwhile the team will win 10 games, place in the Top 10, and end the season in Pasadena, because that's what Michigan senior quarterbacks do.

For those tracking Denard's passing acumen the tale has been one of major progression before 2010, followed by regression in 2011 followed by re-progression as he a.) grew more comfortable in Borges's offense, b.) played more out of the shotgun, and c.) gave his staph infection time to heal.

If you were reading the weekly previews this season you would have noticed the space for Michigan's passing game was consistently fretting about Robinson's accuracy. This would be followed by a game with some flash of the laser precision he seemed to possess at times in 2010, followed by a bomb that overshot Hemingway/Roundtree by 20 yards. This was our concern. The more intelligent announcers talked about where his shoulders and toes were at their release, and Borges pressers reiterated the footwork theory.

Then sometime around Purdue-Iowa-Illinois, said all, 2010 Denard worked his way back. I'd like to use this space to test if that was really the case.

That's lots of numbers. The easy metric to break these down metric is Brian's Downfield Success Rating at the far right. That's Dead-Ons and Catchables divided by all the rest (marginals are excised). But a few years ago, while trying to get a handle on what we had in Forcier, a few users thought to visualize this. I try that now with Denard's career:

I centered in the middle of the marginals to show how good the very goods were and how bad the very bads got. You kind of have to look hard to see it, but there is a regression apparent. Denard seemed to level off in the Big Ten season last year to a good chunk of accurate balls, one or two bad reads, and as many inaccurate as were dead on. For a good part of this year it was that one temptress of a perfectly thrown ball, one to five bad reads, and almost as many balls to Tacopants as the vicinity of his receivers. By Ohio State, on pure downfield success rating, it was just outside the UFR-era hall of fame (on many fewer attempts):

Season

QB

Opp.

W/L

DO

CA

MA

IN

BR

TA

BA

PR

ATT

DSR

2007

HENNE

Purdue

W

3

20

N/A

1

1

1

1

2

29

85.20%

2007

HENNE

EMU

W

4

16

N/A

1

0

1

2

1

25

83.30%

2005

HENNE

Ohio St

L

6

27

N/A

1

1

4

1

N/A

40

82.50%

2008

SHERIDAN

Minn

W

2

20

4

3

2

1

0

0

32

78.60%

2005

HENNE

MSU

W

4

25

N/A

1

3

3

1

N/A

37

78.40%

2011

ROBINSON

Ohio St

W

3

7

2

1

0

2

0

0

15

76.92%

FTR by this metric, the Michigan State game this year is 3rd all time in the hall of shame, better only than Sheridan in the Badge of Fandom Endurance game vs. Northwestern, and Threet versus Purdue. Sheridan being on both lists was one (happy) fluke between games his coaches hardly let him throw more than a screen for fear of triggering an early duck season. 2011 Denard's is the opposite: one bad game amidst a bunch that range between mediocre and okay. His games aren't in the Junior Henne/Early Forcier range; they are about on par with Big Ten Forcier as a freshman, and he's better than freshman Mallett. This is without the legs.

There was also wide variance in number of throws, partly due to game-planning, but also having a lot to do with Borges leaning somewhat more on the running game when Michigan led. Look at the paucity of passes for Michigan against Purdue and Illinois, versus huge stacks for MSU (look at their pressure metric!) and Iowa. The percentages chart below can adjust for that a bit:

Click it to embiggen. I took out a few more bad defenses to make that one if you're wondering why fewer bars. Also those marks are the rankings by FEI of that opponent's pass defense—the worst pass defense would be at the very bottom, the best at the very top. Take with a huge grain of salt since FEI's weird this year. (No way Iowa and Purdue have the same secondary, nor do I believe either are 40 spots worse than Minnesota). Anyway it shows the metric is at least defense-independent.

This one has the story we've been telling: 2010 was fairly static, while 2011 was a dropoff followed by progression in the new offense (and a stinker in a trash tornado in the middle). Denard also maybe scrambled a bit more at the end of the season (the white bars). Overall you'd almost expect the two years to be flipped, with the hard learning and scrambling a sophomore campaign and the leveling off near the peak of the previous year the work of an upperclassman. If you consider time in the system, it's more like the work of a redshirt freshman followed by a true freshman.

The reads are another thing that fixed over time (Nebraska's weekly BR looks bigger in a small sample). The % of bad reads this year all told took a rather scary dip from pushing Sr. Henne to Threet-ish:

Player

BR/Att

DSR

HENNE 2007

6.12%

71%

ROBINSON 2010

6.67%

69%

FORCIER 2009

7.73%

70%

THREET

9.09%

55%

ROBINSON 2011

9.17%

61%

SHERIDAN

10.00%

60%

MALLETT

10.69%

51%

ROBINSON 2009

14.29%

44%

I'm ready to believe this was related to the footwork thing. If the staph infection affected him, it couldn't be more than the beating he took last year blamed for the perceived reduction in Big Ten play. There is evidence of greater pressure—the 7 categorized "PR" in the MSU game is one fewer than Brian gave for all of 2010—and all that.

How much this regression "hurt" Michigan this season can be overstated. Using all plays charted in UFR, Denard averaged 6.93 yards per play, as opposed to the 7.25 yards per play in 2010. That's not about bad defenses; against real opponents Denard's 6.55 YPA is better than his 6.30 in 2010. This is a result of the long passes against Notre Dame (10.09 YPP – which is ridiculous), but if we normalize every play longer than that to a cap of 20 yards, this is what he looks like per passing attempt (2010 schedule futzed with to match comparable games):

2010

2011

Connecticut

7.48

WMU

6.57

Notre Dame

6.00

Notre Dame

7.77

Bowling Green

10.75

EMU

6.55

Penn State

6.29

SD State

5.88

Massachusetts

7.56

Minnesota

8.84

Indiana

9.00

Northwestern

10.96

Michigan State

6.10

Michigan State

3.17

Purdue

5.91

Purdue

7.14

Iowa

5.79

Iowa

4.31

Illinois

7.95

Illinois

6.64

Wisconsin

6.75

Nebraska

6.73

Ohio State

???

Ohio State

7.35

Including only non-theoretical defenses (No FCS, EMU, BG, Indiana, WMU, NW), and again, counting everything over 20 yards as 20, Denard was getting 6.47 yards per attempt last year, and got 5.96 per passing attempt this year. That's still good. And it's a good bet, with a second year fusing with Mr. Borges, the performance level he got back to from Iowa through Nebraska is conceivable for the bowl game and beyond. If he can somehow sustain what he did against Ohio State he would be inconceivable.

Formation notes: Almost entirely shotgun this week. As far as OSU's defense goes: they run a nickel package on every down with Tyler Moeller the "star", a sort of hybrid safety/LB. OSU had two main alignments, one with Moeller over the slot and one with him in the box. Moeller slot == Nickel. Moeller box == 4-3. "Plus" means a safety has walked down all the way into the box.

Substitution notes: Status quo on the line and at WR. Toussaint was obviously the main guy at RB; Hopkins got some time as a single blocking back on passing downs and Denard runs. Not sure if Smith is still dinged up or if that's a shift in deployment. Moore seemed to be the second TE in this game.

In lieu of anything interesting on the Michigan side of the ball, here's an oddity from OSU: planetoid DT Jonathan Hankins spent almost the entire game playing DE. No idea why. While he made some plays out there he was useless in pass rush.

Show? Show.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M26

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel over plus

Run

QB sweep

Robinson

5

Barnett rolled down as another LB with the SLB over the slot. Michigan pulls Schofield and Molk; Odoms runs an end around fake. Koger(+1) gets a good downblock on the playside DE, opening the corner. Toussaint has the cornerback; Schofield(+1) has Barnett. Barnett bugs out and is about to go for a ride; Molk(-1) does not see Sabino coming from the inside and runs past him. Sabino was slightly delayed by the end-around fake and he can't cut Denard off until he picks up a nice gain; could have been big time if block is made.

RUN+: Koger, Toussaint

RUN-: Molk

M31

2

5

Shotgun twin TE

1

2

2

4-3 even

Run

Zone read belly

Toussaint

0

Odoms motions for the triple option look. Hankins is lined up at DE and is the unblocked zone guy. Weird. He shuffles down. Shazier is in the gray area as far as a handoff goes; playside CB is hard on the edge and will eat up a pitch. This is supposed to be a belly given the blocking but it's not there; MLB is unblocked and Toussaint has to dance around to get back to the LOS. The blocking does not make sense with Toussaint's angle of attack. Not sure who that screwup is on but assume Toussaint since the blocking is coherent. RPS -1; I can't figure out how Michigan is going to get yards here.RUN-: Toussaint

M31

3

5

Shotgun 4-wide

1

0

4

Nickel even

Pass

Slant

Odoms

Inc

An accurate dart; Odoms is blatantly interfered with without a call. Refs -2. (CA+, 0, protection 1/1) Odoms got an illegal motion call so this would have offset.

Drive Notes: Punt, 0-7, 11 min 1st Q. Three and out plus sack plus crappy punt sets Michigan up with good field position on the next drive.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

O47

1

10

Pro set

2

1

2

4-3 over plus

Pass

Flare screen

Toussaint

6

Actually a T formation(!) until Hemingway motions out. Michigan runs a delay fake to Hopkins and then hits Toussaint on the flare screen. Hankins is the playside DE again and gets chopped; he's useless out there. Shazier sucks up. Gallon whiffs a block in space, as does Schofield, and Toussaint doesn't realize he's got a lot of room behind Molk, so he ends up running into the corner after a decent gain. RPS +1. (CA, 3, screen)RUN-: Gallon, Schofield(0.5)

O41

2

4

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Nickel even

Run

Inverted veer keeper

Robinson

41

Nickelback comes down off the slot to show blitz and then just forms up as LB. Short side corner does blitz. Hopkins ends up kicking him out as Denard pulls. Shazier covers Toussaint; Omameh is pulling and ends up ignoring Sabino, instead choosing to block Shazier. Robinson(+3) jukes Sabino as Omameh(+1) latches onto Shazier and pulls the Te'o special by driving him into a safety; Toussaint also improvises to help get that guy blocked. Gallon(+2) puts Barnett on the ground and that's all she wrote. Lewan(+1) crushed Hankins inside BTW. I thought Omameh screwed this up, which is why Denard had to juke, but it worked out in the end. I'm not sure about the screwup now; more later. RPS +1. Picture paged. Replay w/ Gallon block.

RUN+: Robinson(3), Omameh, Lewan, Gallon(2)

RUN-:

Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-7, 9 min 1st Q. Safety gives M 9-7 lead and good field position on next drive.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M48

1

10

Denard jet

1

2

2

4-3 even

Run

Jet sweep

Robinson

5

Basically the same play they started with from a new formation. Boise State "just plays" theory. OSU sends a guy off the edge who sets up in good position, making either the bounce or the cut upfield awkward. Michigan now running at Simon, not Hankins, and that's a big difference. Moore(-1) is owned. Denard has to bounce outside. Molk(+1) gets a shove on the contain guy Smith is blocking, giving Denard(+1) a little room before a safety comes up to contain; Smith's guy disengages to tackle.

RUN+: Robinson, Molk

RUN-: Moore

O47

2

5

Ace triple stack

1

1

3

4-3 even

Pass

Throwback screen

Gallon

2

This is dead since the corner is sitting on it and is right on top of it to tackle on the snap. Not actually sure how this gained any yards at all. (CA, 3, screen, RPS -1)

O45

3

3

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

4-3 even

Run

QB power

Robinson

2

Well blocked and should actually be a nice gainer except Hopkins(-1) starts blocking the edge contain guy Odoms is already on, leaving Shazier free to flow to the hole. Koger(+1) got an excellent seal of Simon. Omameh did a meh job on his pull but did get a helmet on Sabino; Sabino gets playside and impacts Robinson, so when Shazier bangs into the pair their momentum stops dead.

RUN+: Koger

RUN-: Hopkins

O43

4

1

I-Form Big

2

2

1

5-3 eagle

Run

FB dive

Hopkins

3

Easy because Omameh(+1) and Huyge(+1) crush one DT; NT submarines himself and Hankins isn't terribly useful; Molk(+0.5) gets enough of a shove on the MLB to prevent anyone from coming over the top and Hopkins gets it easily.

RUN+: Omameh, Huyge, Molk(0.5)

RUN-:

O40

1

10

Denard jet

1

2

2

4-3 even

Run

Counter pitch

Smith

3

No sale. Shazier reads it and gets outside of Lewan, flowing down to tackle when the corner maintains contain. Still an okay gain.

O37

2

7

Shotgun 2TE twins

1

2

2

4-3 even

Pass

Rollout hitch

Roundtree

8

With Simon doubled and Toussaint screening the edge is a given here since the slot LB is dropping into coverage. Denard finds Roundtree for a first down; throw is low and has to be dug out. Maybe that's intentional since he's keeping it away from coverage... but probably not. (MA, 2, protection 2/2)

O29

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

4-3 even

Run

Inside zone

Toussaint

3

Odoms in motion underneath and after the handoff Robinson fakes a bubble screen. Which was CRAZY OPEN. Borges did this to spite Heiko. The run is close to working too; expecting belly the two linebackers end up on the backside as Toussaint hits the gap between Schofield and Omameh; Shazier has bolted up into the backside of the play and is sealed away by Omameh. Schofield(-1) got shoved into the backfield, however, and Hankins has both gaps covered. He reaches out to slow Toussaint, allowing the safety to fill. Toussaint(+0.5) breaks a tackle to get some yards after contact.

RUN+: Toussaint(0.5)

RUN-: Schofield

O26

2

7

Shotgun 2-back TE

2

1

2

4-3 even

Pass

Post

Hemingway

26

Play action. Robinson has all day; great protection from the line and Smith lights up the LB when he comes on a delayed blitz. Live I thought this was late from Robinson but it's not really, Koger just screwed his route up by running a seam instead of what I'm sure must have been an in or something. With no safety over the top and Hemingway inside of his man all he has to do is box out. Denard underthrows it a smidge but nothing too bad; Hemingway's adjustment is simple. (CA, 3, protection 3/3)

Drive Notes: Touchdown, 16-7

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M7

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

4-3 even

Run

Zone read dive

Toussaint

2

Schofield heads to the second level immediately and Molk(+1) has to block the NT one on one; he goes playside and Molk locks him up; Toussaint(-1) has to cut behind. He reads this late, slowing up in the hole and gingerly picking his way through the traffic. This delay allows Simon, unblocked on the backside, to hug Lewan's hip and then come around. (Koger is headed outside to potentially block contain guy Shazier, but no keep.) There's a hole because of the overplay by the NT and Omameh/Huyge comboing the DT; Omameh(-1) gets out on the MLB but is shed easily, robbing Toussaint of the ability to fall forward for a couple more or run through Simon's ankle tackle attempt.

RUN+: Molk

RUN-: Toussaint, Omameh

M9

2

8

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

4-3 even

Run

Inverted veer keeper

Robinson

2

Okay, this is the second straight time the pulling guard has blocked the guy the read options off instead of heading to the second level. Michigan got away with it the first time; not so much here. Koger is blown up by Simon; Denard reads Klein shooting outside and pulls; Schofield(-1) blocks him anyway. Klein is so confused he runs after Toussaint well after the pull. This leaves Denard in a lot of space against Johnson, the safety. He makes a wrong move and Johnson makes a great open field tackle to prevent a big gain; Robinson fumbles but Michigan gets lucky on the recovery. Omameh(+1) got a good driving block to open up more room. RPS+1; this should have worked even with the screwup. (If it actually was.) BWS picture-paged.

RUN+: Omameh

RUN-: Schofield, Robinson(3)

M11

3

6

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

4-3 even

Pass

Sack

--

-4

Koger motions out. Michigan rolls out to that side and gets plenty of time; Robinson can't find anyone open and eventually eats a sack. Hopkins could have done a better job cutting Simon, I guess. (TA, N/A, protection ½, Hopkins -1)

Drive Notes: Punt, 16-7, EO1Q.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M20

1

10

Shotgun trips

1

0

4

Nickel even

Run

Zone read dive

Toussaint

3

Ten man football. Backside DT slants inside Lewan(-1) and Schofield(-1) and charges down the line; Molk(+0.5) and Omameh(+0.5) have beaten up the other DT and Simon has to contain; Grady(+0.5) comes down on the safety and there is a developing gap. Toussaint has to run away from the backside DT and this gives Ohio State time to rally.

RUN+: Omameh(0.5), Molk(0.5), Gallon(0.5)

RUN-: Lewan, Schofield

M23

2

7

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

4-3 even

Run

PA scramble

Robinson

5

After an inverted veer fake Robinson pulls and sets up to throw. I think Robinson needs to ride the fake longer here to get the DE to commit to Toussaint; as it is he pulls and has that guy plus a linebacker scraping over with just one blocker. DE comes in on him; Robinson takes off. Without the pressure, I think he's got Hopkins on a wheel route as Shazier is confused as hell. (SCR, N/A, protection 0/2, Robinson(!) -1, Team -1)

RUN+: Robinson

RUN-:

M28

3

2

Shotgun 2-back 2TE

2

2

1

5-3 eagle

Run

QB power

Robinson

3

Simon blows up Koger(-2), who loses him outside immediately; Simon takes out the puller and forces a bounce that Robinson can manage because Toussaint(+1) got a good block and he is Denard Robinson. He gets the first down before fumbling; this time Michigan is not so lucky. Shazier gets all limpy on this play. He'll continue but he won't be full strength. (Robinson only loses two on this play because he got a +1 for the run before the -3 for the fumble.)RUN-: Koger(2), Robinson(2)

Drive Notes: Fumble, 16-10, 9 min 2nd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M20

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel even plus

Run

Zone read keeper

Robinson

1

One high with Moeller out on the slot and Johnson walking down. Sabino does a good job of getting outside Koger's block and Grady(-1) totally whiffs on the slot guy, so Denard can't just go outside. Would probably have gotten decent yardage if Grady gets anything on Moeller.RUN-: Grady

M22

2

9

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel even

Pass

PA TE flat

Koger

7

Both safeties back, for the most part. OSU blitzes a linebacker and has Simon drop off as a DT heads out on the edge for contain. No linebackers means the short flip to Koger is open; Robinson takes it. Moeller does a good job of filling; you'd still want Koger to maybe shake this guy a little and get more yards here. (CA, 3, protection N/A)

M29

3

2

Shotgun 4-wide

1

0

4

3-4 nickel press

Pass

Scramble

Robinson

9

DL in a 3-4 alignment with Simon in a standup position on the edge. OSU offsides; no call. Refs -1. Their early movement reveals a slant/stunt that gets Simon past Huyge(-1); Huyge does keep shoving the guy and eases Robinson's step past him. With a DL upfield there's a running lane Robinson hits for the first, picking up another five by dodging a tackler. (SCR, N/A, protection ½, Huyge -1)

RUN+: Robinson(2)

RUN-:

M38

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel even plus

Run

Sprint counter

Toussaint

46

Sabino buries himself in the line on the counter action. Schofield(+1) seals one DT; Molk(+0.5) and Omameh(+0.5) the other. Huyge(-1) gets chucked by the playside DE and falls to the ground; a pulling Lewan(+2) improvises to pick him up. Shazier is in a lot of space and Toussaint can go either side of the Lewan block because it's at the LOS and Lewan is shoving the guy downfield; Shazier tries to maintain leverage, forces the cutback, and slips. I don't think the slip mattered; Toussaint(+2) was one step and gone upfield. Barnett can't close him down because he hesitated, thinking Denard might have it. RPS +3.

RUN+: Schofield, Molk(0.5), Omameh(0.5), Lewan(2), Toussaint(2)

RUN-: Huyge

O16

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel even

Run

Inverted veer give

Toussaint

2

This is all about Simon. Schofield's(+0.5) guy gets upfield and is sealed away; Lewan(+0.5) gets downfield with alacrity to seal Shazier. Molk deals with the backside DT easily enough. There's Simon, unblocked, Koger on Sabino, and Hemingway(-1) on Moeller; Hemingway loses Moeller quickly to the outside and Toussaint has to cut upfield. Koger's block is okay; Simon plays this perfectly to get the handoff and still make the play on Toussaint on the cutback; he reaches out and spins him 360 with an arm tackle on the shoulder, allowing the safety to fill. I think Denard has to ride the mesh longer here to make Simon pick. He's the only guy who can deal with this.

RUN+: Schofield(0.5), Lewan(0.5)

RUN-: Hemingway

O14

2

8

Ace twins twin TE

1

2

2

4-3 even

Pass

Waggle TE flat

Koger

3

Nine guys tight to the line. Michigan runs PA because that's what they always do from this formation. Huyge(-2) inexplicably lets a DT go to block Shazier, DT pressures, Denard sidesteps. More guys come in now (Huyge whiffed on Shazier, too) but the threat of the run pulls Simon up and Koger is open on the sideline for a short catch and some YAC. (CA+, 3, protection 0/2, Huyge -2)

O11

3

5

Shotgun trips bunch

1

0

4

Okie

Pass

Drag

Odoms

5

Three guys are sent up the middle; Molk and Hopkins pick up two. The last guy is unblocked as Schofield is blocking air with a DT dropping out. A guy is in Denard's face; he calmly hits Odoms on a drag route for the first. Ball is behind him but not too bad; Odoms gets hit by the safety and has to juggle and re-catch the ball as he goes to the ground. Tough, tough catch. (CA, 1, protection 0/2, team -2)

O6

1

G

Shotgun 2TE twins

1

2

2

4-5 umbrella

Run

Zone read dive

Toussaint

0

Backside blitz sends contain DE Simon inside; Lewan(+1) blocks him. Koger, heading backside picks off the blitzer. Toussaint(-1) has a cut backside for six and misses it. Huyge(-1) has gotten shoved into the backfield and lost inside position on his DE; Toussaint bounces into a lot of trouble.

RUN+: Lewan

RUN-: Toussaint, Huyge

O6

2

G

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

4-3 even plus

Run

Inverted veer keeper

Robinson

6

DE upfield; obvious keep. Sabino heads outside for Hopkins, who he must be keying on to maintain leverage. Safety Johnson has no idea who has the ball and takes a step outside well after the mesh point. Huyge(+1) gets a good downfield block on Shazier, pancaking him; Omameh(+0.5) did enough with the playside DT, and Robinson(+1) strolls in. RPS +1.

Drive Notes: Touchdown, 23-17, 3 min 2nd Q. Michigan gets the ball with little over a minute left inside their 20 and runs the clock out to end the half, then gets the opening kickoff in the second.

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M20

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

4-3 even

Run

Inverted veer give

Toussaint

8

DE is Hankins and he does not get upfield, so the handoff is made. Koger(+1) blocks Shazier, Omameh(+1) pulls and blocks Hankins, again leaving a rolled up safety one on one with Toussaint. Toussaint(+2) jukes him out of his jock with a jump cut reminiscent of his high school film. He's now on the edge; Sabino just manages to come around traffic to tackle with help from the corner, who chucked Hemingway upfield.

RUN+: Toussaint(2), Koger, Omameh

RUN-:

M28

2

2

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel even

Run

QB power

Robinson

3

Odoms in motion for an end around fake. Denard keeps and it's power. OSU blitzes. Omameh(+2) crushes blitzing MLB to the ground, removing him and destroying backside pursuit. Playside DT slides outside, creating a big hole in the middle. Unfortunately, Koger(-1) is assigned to him and can't deal with it. He peels off; both Schofield and Toussaint see him as a threat so he ends up taking three blockers. Simon is to the outside of this so it's not that bad but it does leave Johnson unblocked. Robinson has a lot of space and should probably try to jet straight upfield. Instead he goes with the bounce and Moeller tracks him down, but after he picks up the first.

RUN+: Omameh(2)

RUN-: Koger

M31

1

10

Ace triple stack

1

1

3

4-3 even

Pass

Throwback screen

Gallon

8

Hemingway blocks the near guy this time as eight OSU defenders are dealing with the zone fake. Odoms... heads inside. Argh. One of the two WRs has to go to the safety. Neither does. He's still about eight yards off on the catch and Gallon does juke him to the outside, but the delay allows other members of the secondary to fill, turning a potential big play into a decent one. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +1.)

RUN+: Gallon

RUN-: Odoms

M39

2

2

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

4-3 even

Run

Inverted veer give

Toussaint

4

DE comes down so the give is made. Shazier heads outside to contain and is kicked by Hopkins(+0.5); Schofield(+0.5) comes around in time to bump the MLB. Zone stuff holds that DE inside long enough. Johnson is overhanging close to the LOS and fills quickly; Toussaint tries to bounce and Shazier closes him down. Johnson gets dinged, paving the way for Dominicoe.

RUN+: Hopkins(0.5), Schofield(0.5)

RUN-:

M43

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Nickel even plus

Run

Triple option dive

Toussaint

4

Or sort of anyway; Hopkins in motion on the speed and Toussaint runs after a handoff I bet a dollar is not a read. Toussaint sees nothing inside and bounces; Huyge(+0.5) did get the corner by not giving ground but this is not a slam dunk. Toussaint(+0.5) ducks under a Shazier tackle to turn a couple into a couple more.

RUN+: Huyge(0.5), Toussaint(0.5)

RUN-:

M47

2

6

Shotgun twin TE

1

2

2

4-3 even

Run

Triple option keeper

Robinson

5

Virtually the same play with Odoms coming in motion to replace Hopkins and a Denard pull. Not sure if this is a real read or not. Moeller blitzes off the edge; Koger pulls across, forcing him to delay but not actually getting a block. Robinson(+1) sees Lewan(+1) has shoved Simon down the line and shoots directly upfield, taking a shot from the MLB as he recovers from the playfake. Rolled up safety finishes it off short of the first, but very close.

RUN+: Lewan, Robinson

RUN-:

O48

3

1

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

4-3 even

Run

QB power

Robinson

3

Odoms motion, fake jet sweep action. Lewan(+1) and Schofield(+0.5) double the playside DT, busting him back and sealing him; Lewan then pops off to the second level. Molk(+0.5) gets an easy seal on a guy lined up outside of him. Robinson leaps over the prone DT Schofield is sitting on and gets it easily.

RUN+: Lewan, Schofield(0.5), Molk(0.5)

RUN-:

O45

1

10

Shotgun 2-back TE

2

1

2

4-3 even

Pass

PA TE seam

Koger

26

Blitz off the slot draws Lewan and leaves Schofield(-1) with Simon; Simon gets a dangerous rush. All for naught as Koger drives past Shazier after a not particularly convincing fake and Robinson lofts a perfect touch pass to him for a big gain. (DO, 3, protection ½, Schofield -1, RPS +1.) Shazier is in good position here but the throw is very good; need to make that fake better.

O19

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

4-3 even

Run

QB sweep

Robinson

6

End around fake to Odoms as Molk and Schofield pull outside of Lewan and Koger. Lewan(+1) eliminates his DT. Koger almost loses Simon but manages to push him past the play as he threatens to TFL. OSU flows well to the play; Toussaint(+0.5) kicks out one LB and Schofield(+0.5) gets the MLB but those two have made creases difficult to find. Molk is also running at this situation; both he and Denard run up the back of Schofield and lurch the pile forward for a decent gain.

RUN+: Lewan, Schofield(0.5), Robinson(0.5), Toussaint(0.5)

RUN-:

O13

2

4

Shotgun 2TE twins

1

2

2

4-5 umbrella

Pass

Triple option pitch

Odoms

-7

Moeller moves late to the edge and blitzes off the corner, which forces a pitch from Robinson about a half second after the mesh point. The pitch is wildly off. I'm not sure why he kept; having that guy coming off the edge is bad news even if the pitch is completed and the handoff is the move.RUN-: Robinson(2)

O20

3

11

Shotgun trips

1

0

4

Nickel even

Pass

Dig

Odoms

20

OSU gergs it, dropping Simon into a short zone and attempting to rush with three DTs (Hankins is still playing DE). With Hopkins protecting that's doubles for everyone and a billion years in the pocket. Robinson surveys and finally throws a dart to Odoms in between four defenders, two of whom derp each other, allowing Odoms the last three yards for the touchdown. (DO, 3, protection 3/3) Replay.

Drive Notes: Touchdown, 30-24, 9 min 3rd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M9

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel even

Run

Sprint counter

Toussaint

1

Molk(+1) buries the NT. This has the unfortunate effect of taking out Schofield's legs from behind and freeing Hankins to flow down the line. Omameh(-1) whiffs on Sabino on the second level. Huyge(-1) is in a stalemate with the playside DE, who successfully forces the play back inside as Huyge kicks Shazier. Hankins whiffs as Toussaint jukes; Sabino makes the play. Somewhat unfortunate.

RUN+: Molk

RUN-: Huyge, Omameh

M10

2

9

Shotgun empty

1

1

3

Nickel over

Run

QB draw

Robinson

10

This screams QB draw but OSU can't do much about it. I assume this is a draw but the receivers mostly go into routes; Odoms is the only guy mountain goating up. Michigan doubles the NT and runs at the gap between that guy and the DE as OSU shifts their line; when neither of those guys fights into the gap it opens up wide. Huge room and Shazier can't close the space down. RPS +1.

RUN+: Robinson, Omameh(0.5), Huyge(0.5)

RUN-:

M20

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Nickel over

Run

Inverted veer keeper

Robinson

22

Omameh(+0.5) kicks the playside DT easily as he slants. DE and Shazier have to go out for the fake; Sabino picks up a hypothetical -2 by not being in the hole; he goes for Toussaint as well and this opens up huge. Huyge(+1) gets a downfield block on the filling safety. Schofield again goes for the DE; not sure I understand this but it seems like that is the way it's coached. Robinson(+2) jets for the secondary, getting a good block from Roundtree(+1) downfield. RPS +1.

RUN+: Robinson(2), Omameh(0.5), Molk(0.5), Roundtree, Huyge

RUN-:

M42

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

4-3 even

Run

Triple option dive

Toussaint

3

Hopkins motions as the pitch guy. Definitely good decision to hand as a LB is scraping over and they've brought Moeller off the slot. Huyge has a tough job as OSU aligns their playside DE inside of him and scrapes Shazier over the top of that, so the DE gets penetration and the bounce is not there. With Schofield(-1) getting busted back by Hankins there is no room; Toussaint(+0.5) wisely just burrows straight upfield, which gets Michigan a few yards when the pile is shoved forward.

RUN+: Toussaint(0.5)

RUN-: Schofield

M45

2

7

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

4-3 even

Pass

PA rollout out

Dileo

4

Robinson's throwing on the move to his left, which is awkward, and leaves this ball short and upfield. It's catchable but Dileo is taken off his feet and denied the chance to turn upfield for a shot at the first down; probably third and one, though. (MA, 2, protection N/A)

M49

3

3

Shotgun 4-wide

1

0

4

Nickel even tight

Pass

Corner

Grady

Inc

Pure man from OSU with no one deeper than six yards. OSU sends two blitzers against five blockers, the second delayed, and there is obviously a free guy. Molk blocks both, actually, letting the initial blitzer go as Shazier comes. Not much he could do. No one is open, really—he could try Hemingway on a hitch and rely on him to box out his defender, but he's stopped and covered—and he tosses a corner route to Grady that's OOB. Torn between IN, TA, PR here. I guess it's (IN, 0, protection ½, team -1) but this is about as understandable of an IN as you can have. I also wonder about these routes. You know you're getting man, so a slant or a drag maybe? Hemingway had an opportunity to pick the guy covering Hopkins's flare but did not. RPS –1.

Drive Notes: PUNT DISASTER, 30-24, 1 min 3rd Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M25

1

10

Shotgun triple stack

1

1

3

Nickel even

Run

QB sweep

Robinson

3

Odoms in motion for end around fake. Simon does a good job of stringing out the edge here; Koger(-0.5) cannot get a handle on him. This really slows things up and makes for a lot of people in the area when decision time comes. Simon does end up falling and Schofield is moving out; I think Denard makes a bad cut here as Toussaint(+0.5) got a good kick and the charging safety is coming up inside of Schofield; if he follows his lead guy he will burrow for decent yardage. Instead he cuts behind and gets tackled just past the LOS, almost losing the ball. Tough read in a brief window, but still lost yardage.

RUN+: Toussaint(0.5)

RUN-: Koger(0.5), Robinson(0.5)

M28

2

7

I-Form

2

1

2

4-3 under

Pass

Waggle deep out

Hemingway

20

No real play action fake, just Denard spinning around to the outside as Schofield pulls to provide some edge protection. Simon dives inside and Schofield has an easy time kicking the contain-concerned LB upfield. Denard pulls up and finds a wide open Hemingway about 20 yards downfield. Better thrown ball picks up a bunch of YAC; at this depth that's the difference between a DO and (CA, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +1). You can argue Denard is throwing the safe ball here and I get you.

M48

1

10

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Nickel even

Run

Zone stretch

Toussaint

11

Oh argh argh. Perfect time to call this as OSU sends a blitzer straight up the middle who Molk(+2) seals and disposes of. Backside guys are slanting outside and not useful; Omameh(+1) gets a seal on the other linebacker, who was almost moving away from the playside. Hankins is pushing hard to the the playside and forces it back inside, into the cavern just described. Lewan has a block on Moeller on the edge but Toussaint(+1) can't cut upfield and back outside quick enough to not bang into it; he stumbles a bit. Grady(-0.5) loses his block downfield and Hopkins(-1) doesn't block the safety, instead going to double the player Hemingway already has. Toussaint is stumbling forward when the corner and safety converge on him. RPS +2; Michigan was a block and a half from one BILLION yards.

RUN+: Molk(2), Omameh, Toussaint

RUN-: Hopkins, Grady(0.5)

O41

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel even

Run

QB draw

Robinson

10

Robinson delayed by a stunt that gets Hankins thrumbling his way into the backfield. OL does a reasonable job with it and the stunt does open up a big running lane once Robinson(+1) gets around it, so RPS push. Omameh(+1) deals with the other DT well, holding his block a long time. Molk's looking around for someone to block and finds no one; Shazier beats Toussaint thanks to the delay but is delayed himself; Denard runs through his arm tackle attempt. Safety fills near the sticks. Hemingway(+1) gets a great, extended block on his guy. RPS +1 overall.

RUN+: Robinson, Omameh, Hemingway

RUN-: Toussaint(0.5)

O31

2

In

I-Form twins

2

1

2

4-3 even

Run

Power off tackle

Toussaint

5 + 13 Pen

Line slants away from the play; Schofield(+1) buries the playside DT. Hankins has slid inside and blows up Omameh(push, he is not expecting to deal with a cutback and gets on the wrong side) but the Schofield block means Toussaint(+1) can cut behind that easily. He picks up the first, at which point unblocked dudes converge since Toussaint has cut away from his blocking. Shazier rips his head off for 15 more. RPS +1

RUN+: Toussaint, Schofield

RUN-:

M13

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

4-3 over

Run

Zone read keeper

Robinson

3

Cover zero with man. Michigan lets Hankins go and Koger(+1) flares out on Shazier, eventually pancaking him. When Hankins gets too aggressive Denard pulls. Good decision but Lewan moves to the second level and ends up blocking no one because his assumption is he's walling the defender off from the zone. Robinson ends up tackled by both those guys in space.

RUN+: Koger

RUN-:

M10

2

7

Shotgun trips TE

1

1

3

4-3 even

Run

Inverted veer keeper

6

Simon comes HARD off the edge, unblocked, and crushes Toussaint in the mesh point. Denard pulls at the last second a la MSU 4th down conversion. Robinson gets bumped, too, and instead of heading straight upfield into open space he has to orbit around this mess. Shazier comes underneath a block; Robinson runs past him, jersey tugged but not enough. He cuts behind Roundtree(+1) blocking a DB and gets chopped down by the last man, Barnett. Dang, Denard(+3). Hemingway did a good job of moving on to another DB after Shazier got upfield, creating some of that space Denard used.

RUN+: Robinson(3), Hemingway, Roundtree

RUN-:

M4

3

1

Goal line

2

3

0

Goal line

Pass

Waggle TE corner

Koger

4

Hopkins and Toussaint offset, in a semi-pro-style thing. Michigan runs a deeply bizarre play action fake with OL blocking like it's a sweep and Toussaint coming in a counter motion; Koger releases downfield and is wide open for six. Confusion. (CA, 3, protection N/A, RPS +2)

Drive Notes: Touchdown, 37-27, 8 min 4th Q

Ln

Dn

Ds

O Form

RB

TE

WR

D Form

Type

Play

Player

Yards

M20

1

10

I-Form twins

2

1

2

4-3 even

Run

Sweep

Toussaint

2

Unbalanced. M tries to pull Molk and Schofield; Hankins goes straight upfield and removes Molk from the play while simultaneously forcing Toussaint outside. Koger(-1) is on Simon and Simon swims past him; Toussaint can only run to the corner. He does well to get a couple yards. RPS -1.RUN-: Koger

M22

2

8

Shotgun 2-back

2

0

3

Nickel even

Pass

Rollout corner

Dileo

28

M gets the corner, at least enough. Denard pulls up and fires as Sabino starts rushing at him, finding Dileo just breaking open in front of the safety and hitting him in the safest place possible; Dileo has to make a tough catch to bring the ball in. NFL all around. (DO, 2, protection 2/2)

50

1

10

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel even

Run

Zone read dive

Toussaint

-1

Only six in the box and this should be money. Not so much. With the TE to the same side as the RB, this is a situation in which a cutback is your primary read off the handoff; since it's made the DE is upfield and since Omameh(+1) got a good block on the backside DT it's there. Toussaint(-2) cuts to the wrong side of Schofield, robs Molk of his blocking angle, and gets swarmed. Denard even cuts the backside DE! Cut back, Fitz!

M49

2

11

Shotgun 4-wide

1

0

4

Nickel even

Run

QB draw

Robinson

16

Shazier blitzes and is picked up by Hopkins(+1). Hankins is sliding into the lane; Molk(+1) blocks him into Schofield(+0.5) and then releases. Denard(+1) into the second level. He sets up Molk's downfield block and glides to an easy first down. RPS +1.

O37

1

10

I-Form twins

2

1

2

4-3 even

Run

Power off tackle

Toussaint

20

Moeller over the slot, leaving just two LBs and the overhang corner plus a safety in the area. Omameh(+2) and Huyge(+2) destroy the playside DT. Molk(+1) throws Hankins to the ground. This plus a good read from Toussaint and the OSU LBs flowing hard to the intended hole gives a cutback lane that is hit with authority; Lewan(+1) walled off Simon on the backside with help from Denard's waggle motion. Toussaint into the secondary, where he's barely roped down.

RUN+: Toussaint, Lewan, Omameh(2), Huyge(2)

RUN-:

O17

1

10

I-Form

2

1

2

4-3 even

Run

Power off tackle

Toussaint

2

Well blocked but eighth guy in the box plus power from the I equals bad. Koger(+0.5) flares out on Moeller; Schofield(+1) seals Hankins; Omameh(+1) makes a much better pull, getting to the hole as fast as possible, getting a block on Sabino. Hopkins(+0.5) kicks Simon and this should work except for the unaccounted-for safety. RPS -1.

RUN+: Koger(0.5), Hopkins(0.5), Koger (0.5), Schofield.

RUN-:

O15

2

8

Shotgun 3-wide

1

1

3

Nickel even

Run

QB power

Robinson

11

Odoms end around fake. OSU has two LBs at the LOS and they blow themselves out of the play. Toussaint(+1) takes on a charging, unblocked Simon at exactly the right spot and shoves him out of the play upfield. Koger(+1) and Lewan(+1) donkey Hankins. Schofield(+1) seals blitzing Shazier. Denard has all of the room. Omameh(+1) gets a good block on the safety; Robinson cuts to the wrong side of that block and turns this from a TD into not quite a TD. I am not that mad since he plows inside the five. Push there. RPS +1.

RUN+: Omameh, Lewan, Koger, Toussaint, Schofield

RUN-:

O4

1

G

Shotgun 2-back TE

2

1

2

Goal line

Run

QB power

Robinson

-1

A massive pile of bodies. Hankins beats Koger(-1) upfield. Schofield gets slanted under. A blitzing LB gets past Molk and takes out the pulling Omameh, removing any cutback lanes. Hopkins(-0.5) should pound the dude Schofield has sort of lost and helped the burrowing, but it's pretty much a lost cause by then. RPS -1.RUN-: Koger, Hopkins(0.5)

O5

2

G

Goal line

2

3

0

Goal line

Run

Power off tackle

Toussaint

5

NT slants outside and live I thought this was Toussaint making a great play; it's not, its Schofield(+2) reacting to push the slanting NT past the play. Toussaint(+1) does cut past the problem smoothly, but it's Schofield adjusting that makes this. With the NT gone it's Molk(+1) owning a blitzing LB and Huyge(+1) getting a downfield block on Shazier that gets Toussaint into the endzone. Sort of, anyway. There are two angles, one of which is obviously out and one of which is obviously in. SURPRISE: it's based on the angle of the camera. Refs -2.

RUN+: Molk, Schofield(2), Toussaint, Huyge

RUN-:

O1

3

G

Goal line

2

3

0

Goal line

Run

Bootleg

Robinson

1 (pen -25!)

This gets the corner; Omameh(-2) does hold the guy on the edge. Watson does plug this guy. I kind of wish they just did the QB sneak. The downside there is nil. RPS -1.RUN-: Omameh(2)

O25

3

G

Shotgun 4-wide

1

0

4

Nickel even

Pass

Throwaway

Roundtree

Inc

I'm surprised this is a throw instead of free ten yards given the situation, but they go for it; Robinson has no one except maybe a check down and is being pursued so he just chucks it OOB. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)

Drive Notes: FG(42), 40-34, 2 min 4th Q

ALL OF THE POINTS

All of the points. Michigan had not scored that many points against Ohio State since a 58-6 whipping by Fritz Crisler and company in 1946. If you give the safety to the defense 2006 beats it and 2000 ties it, but then you've got the whole touchdown fiasco.

And what's more, that was a short game. Michigan had only ten drives. None of them were turnover-spawned and many of them were long. Michigan put up 460 yards of offense. Against Ohio State. In ten drives.

How did this happen?

Remember the 2005 Rose Bowl, when Michigan felt the wrath of Vince Young? While Young did put up 192 rushing yards what lost Michigan the game was the invincible robot going 16 of 28 for 180 yards in the air.

Invincible robot chart?

Invincible robot chart.

[Hover over column headers for explanation of abbreviation. Screens are in parens.]

Opponent

DO

CA

MA

IN

BR

TA

BA

PR

SCR

DSR

2009, All Of It

1

7

6(2)

3(1)

4

4

-

-

?

44%

Notre Dame

3

25(8)

3(1)

4

1

-

4(1)

2

-

71%

Michigan State

4

14(3)

1

7(1)

1

-

-

2

2

68%

Iowa

1

11(3)

2

3(1)

2

-

1

-

-

64%

Illinois

4

9(1)

1

4

1

3

1(1)

-

-

60%

Purdue

2

12(1)

1

3

1

1

1

3

-

68%

WMU '11

-

6(1)

4

3

1

-

-

-

1

56%

Notre Dame '11

6

7(1)

1

6(1)

5

1

1

1

-

50%

EMU '11

1

10(1)

-

5

1

-

1

1

1

59%

SDSU '11

-

10(2)

-

4

2

1

-

1

-

53%

Minnesota '11

1

13(3)

1

3

1

-

-

-

-

73%

Northwestern '11

4

12(3)

1

7

2

-

-

-

1

59%

MSU '11

1

8(1)

4(1)

6

5

-

1

7

1

40%

Purdue '11

1

7(1)

-

1

2

1

-

2

-

66%

Iowa '11

2

21

2

7

1

-

3(1)

2

-

69%

Illinois '11

1

4(1)

1

2

-

1(1)

-

1

1

66%

Nebraska '11

1

12(3)

-

2

2

1

1(1)

1

3

66%

Ohio State '11

3

10(3)

2

1

-

2

-

-

1

77%

Lethal, lethal, lethal. His one IN was a corner route thrown to Grady on a third and medium when everyone was covered and he had an unblocked blitzer coming up the middle. His two MAs were completions. His DOs were fantastic. Finding Odoms on third and eleven was the best:

He sees that linebacker vacate his zone to chase Hemingway and lasers it in. Pray this is a consistent thing.

Meanwhile in open versions of Hemingway:

Various Buckeyes on twitter bemoaned the fact that Denard missed Koger so badly that he hit Hemingway, which is laughable, man.

Robinson dealt with a lot of pressure effectively, scooting out for a scramble and calmly hitting Odoms for a critical third down conversion in the redzone. There is nothing to criticize in his passing this game. You know what that performance warrants? The "Denard Robinson killed Tacopants" tag.

So… we have a pattern now. In the beginning of the year Denard had no idea what to do with this passing offense and his lack of comfort screwed up his mechanics. As he progressed and Borges adapted to his strengths the comfort level rose and he hit a plateau of totally acceptable performances before lighting up OSU. The progress is undeniable. He'll regress a bit against VT but if he nudges his DSR above 70% it's time to quietly hope he can have a ridiculous career capping year in 2012.

The best part of going 14/17 for ten YPA? Three QB draws for 10, 10, and 16 yards. Run and tell that, homeboy. If Denard is the QB he became after the trash tornado game, look out: 59% completions, 7-4 TD-INT, 8.4 YPA against Purdue/Iowa/Illinois/Nebraska/OSU translates into… I don't even know what.

Yea, and we looked unto his serene face and praised him.

So the big chart is the big chart and you are going to be skipping to the last bit:

The inverted veer tore Ohio State up and Borges got good mileage out of the throwback screen. There were plenty of open receivers and Borges pulled out some old staples that had been put in the barn for a while: the sprint counter and PA TE seam picked up huge chunks on Michigan touchdown drives. He even got an easy flip into the endzone on play action.

I want to focus on what happened in the fourth quarter. After the punt disaster Michigan gets the ball back on their own 20 up three points. Their drive goes like so:

These are all different; OSU had not seen plays 2, 3, 5, or 8. On second and medium in the fourth up three, Borges throws the ball downfield. On the next play he RPS+2s OSU by running a stretch against a linebacker blitz up the middle. A few plays later he does it again. Remember how we were talking about the Boise State "just plays" philosophy? The TD was that incarnate.

So you've got this pro-set sweep thing with counter something something and what the hell is going on? Michigan hasn't aligned in that formation all year. It hasn't run anything like that all year. There is nothing for the defense to key on. They have no idea what's happening in front of them and end up so mesmerized Koger can declare his corner of the endzone Kevin Koger's Kogerland and hold elections without anyone noticing. President for life of Kevin Koger's Kogerland: Kevin Koger. First order of business: a motion to put six points on the board. Vote: unanimously in favor. Ratify that baby, Vice Exchequer Gibbons.

And then on the next drive Michigan gets the ball up three with seven minutes left; on second and eight Borges dials up the Dileo corner for 28 yards. Michigan marches down the field and coulda-shoulda-did put the game out of reach.

That continued aggression got Michigan ten points on drives starting from the 25 and 20 in the fourth quarter. Without it Michigan does not win this game.

How about that offensive line?

Hey, remember early in the year when everyone was saying they were overrated and Michigan was doomed? Yeah. No. While they too experienced a frustrating transition period, once they got their feet under them they helped rack up Michigan's massive rushing numbers.

Against OSU they were executing at a very high level; when they were defeated it was because Hankins and Simon are very good players, not because of anything poor they did. Sometimes when runs went backwards it was the tailback's fault, not theirs. They even broke a power big when Omameh and Huyge thumped a DT five yards backwards:

mmmmm grasss

Watch Omameh pull along the line and get to the hole way before Robinson:

That is how it's done, and that's night and day from Omameh's kind-of-sad attempts to pull earlier in the year. Compare and contrast the above with a similar QB power from the MSU game:

Funk has brought him a long way in a short time. I'm not sure if Omameh will ever have the size and strength Michigan wants in their guards but he's a hell of a lot better now.

They're not great all along the line like some of Michigan's units from a decade ago but combined with Robinson and Borges they've put up better numbers than anyone in 15 years. Molk is an all-timer at center, Lewan is still on the Jake Long track (and past the half-way point), and Schofield is going to be a very good three year starter. The right side is a little shakier but I don't think I'd trade for any line in the conference save Wisconsin. OSU's went out the window when Mike Adams got thrashed in pass protection two or three times.

What about that third and goal from the inch call?

That is the one thing I had an issue with. From that spot on the field I would sneak it 100% of the time since the chance of success is very high and the downside is a yard loss, if that*. Putting yourself on the edge exposes you to the possibility of negative events without a commensurate increase in success rates.

There was a second thing: once you're back on the 26 I'm just taking the free chunk of yards OSU will cede and setting up a chip shot field goal. The chances of actually scoring from the 26 are close to zero and the field goal from the 43 is not a gimme. Running for ten yards makes your FGA a lot less harrowing and strips OSU of its last timeout.

*[If you're thinking about Chad Henne's fumble against ND in 2005, you have to make the exchange on any call you make.]

So what was with the pulling guards blocking optioned guys on the inverted veer?

I thought this was a mistake due to a lack of reps, but like Troy Woolfolk jumping short routes it happened with such consistency that it eventually became clear it was no mistake. Tyler Sellhorn has a possible explanation:

Dear Brian,

I think Schofield and Omameh were coached to block the DE. Hoke/Borges do not like leaving unblocked defensive linemen out there. A famous unattributed coaching axiom that I am sure that Hoke/Borges believe in is: "First level defenders cause fumbles, second level defenders make tackles." To me, this is the "MANBALL" component of M's "option" game. True power running game people think like that. I think that is the reason there have been fewer really long runs (the second level has been blocked less consistently this season).

This is one philosophical difference: RR's first thought always was, "How can we dick with the safeties to get big yards when we break through the line", Hoke/Borges first thought is "How can we dick with the DL so they are less aggro (in run and pass situations) and we don't ever have a negative play." Both work well as we have seen.

Tyler Sellhorn

To me it's weird that you'd option a guy off and still block him, but we saw Denard keep on the inverted veer five times and these were the results:

WOOPS unblocked Sabino in the hole and gets to the sideline for 42-yard TD.

Does not WOOP unblocked Johnson in the hole, gains two yards.

DE flies way upfield, Hopkins takes Shazier outside without having to block him, Schofield moves to second level to block Johnson, six yard TD.

Sabino blows his assignment and heads out on Toussaint. Pulling G blocks DE.

Simon annihilates mesh point, Robinson pulls and miracles his way into six yards.

We can't glean anything from #5 since it did not go as intended. On three of the other four the pulling guard blocked the optioned DE. On the other, he got to the second level. Why? My theory is because there was no one else on the edge but the DE. On the other runs OSU ran blitzes that forced Hopkins to block guys other than the DE, who was then in a position to make a play on the ball, hypothetically, and received the attention of the pulling G. On the six yard TD the DE flew upfield to contain Toussaint and the puller moved on.

Goats?

Nobody. The only bad things to happen on the day were Denard's fumbles.

Heroes?

Everybody. Denard, Molk, Omameh, Lewan most of all.

What does it mean for Virginia Tech and the future?

It means we're going to be disappointed when Michigan does not execute flawlessly in the Sugar Bowl.

It also hints at fantastic things for next year. If Denard can maintain that level of play in the air the offense goes from dang good but inconsistent to

Can he? Well… probably not. We've got a lot more evidence pointing the other way. But you can't rule out something like the last five games, if not a little better, over the whole of 2012. That would be a great offense if they can just keep every single offensive lineman healthy throughout the whole year and find a tight end. And figure out what life without David Molk is like. So… some questions, but so much promise.