Venezuela's Chavez agrees to presidential referendum

Vote deal follows devastating year

April 13, 2003|By Gary Marx, Tribune foreign correspondent.

HAVANA — In a step that could ease a long-running political battle, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and opposition leaders agreed to hold a recall referendum that could lead to presidential elections later this year.

The referendum would be held after Aug. 19, midway through Chavez's presidential term, which is to end in early 2007.

The tentative deal, announced Friday in Caracas, came after a year of political strife that has divided Venezuela and crippled its economy but has failed to remove the populist, controversial president.

"If I lose the referendum, I'll go, but they have to beat me fair and square," Chavez said Friday.

Rafael Alfonzo, a key opposition negotiator, said the opposition is confident it can win the referendum. He said the agreement is scheduled to be signed April 22.

"For us the 19th of August is a day of hope," Alfonzo said Saturday. "That will be the best day ever because that will be the end of this nightmare."

Still, some Chavez critics suspect he may try to delay or derail the referendum.

Experts said the deal is an acknowledgement of victory for Chavez, who months ago agreed to hold a binding referendum in August. But during the height of protests late last year opposition leaders demanded that the president resign and that elections be held immediately.

Despite months of street battles and a plunging economy, Chavez has weathered the political storm by tightening his control over the all-important oil sector and by purging opposition supporters from the military.

Meanwhile, the opposition's two main strike leaders have fled and it's unclear whether Chavez foes can mount a united, forceful challenge to his rule, experts said.

"Obviously, Chavez has won," said Michael Shifter, a senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, D.C. "They tried everything and nothing else worked, so now they are trying to play on Chavez's own terms."

Battle over signatures ahead

According to the agreement, the opposition must collect signatures from at least 20 percent of the electorate to trigger a referendum. Alfonzo maintains that the opposition collected the signatures late last year and will take the issue to the Venezuelan Supreme Court to get the signatures ratified.

In the referendum, opponents would have to collect about 3.7 million votes--about 34 percent of the electorate--to win and force new presidential elections in 30 days.

Government officials say Chavez will participate in any new presidential elections. Opponents say he is ineligible if he loses the referendum.

Recent polls indicate the opposition could win the referendum, but that would depend on voter turnout. Chavez's support hovers at about 35 percent, but his backers are highly motivated, and close to 50 percent of Venezuelans failed to vote in the last presidential elections.

Alfredo Keller, a pollster and fierce Chavez critic, said the opposition also hampered is by recriminations over the failed national strike, which contributed to the economy contracting 8.9 percent last year and an estimated 17 percent this year. The opposition also has failed to select a new leader, with a dissident oil executive and two veteran politicians battling over the job.

A former army paratrooper elected president in 1998, Chavez has carried out a self-styled populist revolution aimed at helping the vast majority of Venezuelans who live in poverty. However, foes say he is wrecking the economy and trying to set up a Cuban-style dictatorship.

A year since coup

Chavez was ousted in a coup a year ago but was restored to the presidency two days later by loyalist troops and popular support.

Since then, Chavez and his opponents have been at loggerheads, with huge and sometimes violent demonstrations illustrating the political divisions in the country.

The battle culminated in a two-month national strike that for a time shut the country's all-important oil industry. Chavez has restored oil production, thereby gaining the upper hand politically, according to experts.

Still, they add, Chavez is taking a risk by agreeing to a vote.

"A lot could happen that could hurt Chavez's standing," said Larry Birns, director of the Washington D.C.-based Council on Hemispheric Affairs.