Friday, June 29, 2012

Crude Oil Spikes as Euro Leaders Relax Spains Debt Conditions

CME: August crude oil prices traded sharply higher during the early morning hours, helped by an EU agreement aimed at relaxing borrowing costs in Spain and Italy. Risk assets across the globe appeared to embrace an agreement, and that has fostered ideas that global oil demand could turn higher. In addition to easing concerns over the European debt debacle, the crude oil market has also drafted support from tightening North Sea supply concerns.

COT: Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates around the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2012 rally crossing at 80.33. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.31 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 77.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28.

Bloomberg: Crude posted its steepest intraday gain in eight months, increasing as much as 4.5 percent and trimming the biggest quarterly decline since the final three months of 2008. Oil gained after euro area leaders agreed to relax conditions on emergency loans for Spanish banks and possible help for Italy. Prices may advance after the European Union’s ban on the purchase, transport, financing and insurance of Iranian crude starts on July 1, a Bloomberg survey showed. Norway’s first industrywide energy strike since 2004 is in its sixth day.