All posts by Nenad Kerkez

As inflation recently in the US has had a recent slight increase near 1.9% p.a., it is still below their target range. Despite this, Actual QoQ GDP Growth has increased to 3%, well ahead of forecast and consensus, and this has seen Forward Company Earnings improve in the US also. The Fed will be conscious of all of this, however, as they saw a small increase in Unemployment and Inflation still below their target levels, they are inclined to keep the rates flat for this month. more…

The Bank of England MPC decision is due at 11 PM GMT. Market is expecting that policymakers leave interest rates at 0.25 %. But what traders and investors should be focused at is how many of policymakers will vote for a hike and how many will be against the hike. Technically the GBP/USD is in uptrend but that can easily change after today’s data and MPC official bank rate votes. 1.3270-85 is the important zone (W H3, D H4, ATR projection high) and the price could reject from the zone once the zone is hit. If the price proceeds above the zone 1.3330-1.3365 more…

As we have seen tightening in the US by the Fed over the past year, there usually is a correlation with other Western economies following the US lead in returning Monetary Policy to historical levels. In this case, the BoC had increased their rate for the second time in recent months largely following an improvement in GDP Growth, along with price stability in their major export Oil and Gas. Needless to say, BoC is somewhat hamstrung with its ability to continue hiking due to its high household debt levels along with real estate prices in Toronto having dropped 20% since April 2017. more…

The GBP/USD broke below 1.2020, the weekly L3 level, thus turning the support into a resistance. After a short breakout that I showed on live trading webinar yesterday, the pair started to retrace towards the POC zone 1.2830-50 (Order block, ATR high, trend line, D H5, EMA89). The price could reject there towards the 1.2880 and 1.2770. Only a break below 1.2768 could spur additional weakness in the pair towards 1.2740 zone. The market is calm at this point but the increased volatility is expected during the 2017 Economic Symposium, “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy”, which will take place Aug. 24-26, 2017 at Jackson Hole, WY. more…

The GBP/JPY has made a temporary bottom at 141.25 and we can see MACD divergence that could push the price to the upside.141.25-50 is the zone where price might spike towards the 142.60-85 where new sellers might be waiting. Only a clear 4h close or h1 momentum above 142.90 should target 143.40. Bearish continuation happens only below 140.90, but at this point, the GBP/JPY is supported by Monthly and Weekly supports and bullish MACD divergence. more…

The EUR/USD has perfectly rejected from both POCs after the setup and analysis shown on Weekly Recap and at this time it is very clear that the equidistant channel is trapping the price keeping the range bound market still in play. After a fake-out that happened yesterday 1.1720-1.1690 (which was still good to trade as a breakout trade, and what I showed during the Live Trading webinar) we can see two POC zones within the equidistant channel that might push or tank the price. If the price spikes above 1.1778 (EMA89, D H3, channel high) the target is 1.1798 and 1.1825. Above 1.1832 we should see a continuation towards more…

The AUD/USD has been in an uptrend with strong rejections off the important POC zones. At this point, we can see a POC zone within 0.7950-70 (trend line, D L3, 61.8,EMA89). If the zone holds, the price should ideally go above 0.7972 (EMA89) and proceed further towards 0.8000 and 0.8020. Break of 0.8025 should target 0.8050-65 zone. However if the price drops below 0.7940, more…

The USD/JPY has been dropping, making a descending zig-zag pattern which marks the downtrend. The POC zone 112.40-62 (D H4, Trend line, ATR pivot, EMA89) could reject the price towards 111.70 and if the 111.65 breaks to the downside 111.40 and 111.00 should be next. If we don’t see a retracement towards the POC, pay attention to 111.65 and possible breakout below. However if the price breaks above 112.70 we might see a retest of 113.00-113.15 zone.more…

Following reports from OPEC that supply shall exceed demand in the oncoming year or so, we have a consolidating Crude Oil price around USD44-45/bbl. BoC have increased their rate overnight following signs of inflation. Given this, the USD/CAD could be further sold on on rallies. My previous analysis showed a drop in the pair and I expect this to continue. At this point the pair is just above W H5, and above D L3. According to my CAMMACD method, we could see another drop below D L3. The drop could happen with or without retracement. If we see a retracement, pay attention to POC 1.2790-1.2810 (50.0, W L4, D H3, ATR pivot) where the price could reject. A move below 1.2675 suggests bearish continuation towards 1.2606 all the way down to 1.2485. more…

If you had signed up for my Live Trading Webinar that is exclusive with Admiral Markets, you could’ve seen how the USD/CAD rejected perfectly from 2 POC zones where both market orders were triggered. The pair is still going down and in the case of any spike to the upside pay attention again to POC 1.2990-1.3005 (D H4, ATR pivot, EMA89) and eventually POC2 1.3035-50 (D H5, W H3, descending trend line, ATR high) where price could reject again. At this point the price is below W H3 and D H3, which signifies a strong downtrend. Continuation below yesterday’s low (1.2912) aims for 1.2895 and 1.2869. Below it is a void zone, where we could see hardly any support all the way down to 1.2780. more…