Thursday, August 25, 2016

Four Global Mega-Banks Have Just Joined An Anti-Dollar Alliance

Yesterday I told you how a consortium of 15 Japanese banks had just signed up to implement new financial technology to clear and settle international financial transactions.

This is a huge step.

Right now, most international financial transactions must pass through the US banking system’s network of correspondent accounts.

This gives the US government an incredible amount of power… power they haven’t been shy about using over the last several years.

2014 was one of the first major watershed moments when the Obama administration fined French bank BNP Paribas $9 billion for doing business with countries that the US doesn’t like– namely Cuba and Iran.

It didn’t matter that this French bank wasn’t violating any French laws.

When the US dollar became world reserve currency, I doubt anyone would have expected that situatikn to last as long as it has. The loss of the US dollar as world reserve currency is inevitable and cannot be prevented.

I've been patiently pointing this out since 1999. The only question is it going to be a "soft landing" or a "hard landing" for the United States when it does occur as it's occurrence cannot be prevented.

This will likely occur in the first term of the next POTUS. As such, one of the questions in the presidential debates needs to be "the US dollar will lose it's role as world reserve currency during your first term. This cannot be prevented. What is your plan to deal with this situation?"

The reason this is being ignored by the mrdia is because neither they, nor Barack Obama, nor their preferred candidate Hilliary Clinton are smart enough nor have the proper experience to understand the problem.

Does Mr. Trump understand the problem? While this isn't known for certain, he is a businessman. In America, it as understood while perhaps unwritten rule that business people do NOT run for public office of any kind unless they are willing to pay the proper deference to the political class. Given that he has not shown such deference to date, there is a possibility he may well grasp the severity of the situation. With Hilliary there is no chance that she gets it.

How we handle the transition may well be the most significant challenge we face. It is going to be vitally important to make wise choices when selecting the next POTUS as well as other government officials.

I would suggest starting earnest negotiations with the Russians and Chinese right now to try and Orchestra a "soft landing." After all these are the world's dominant powers, there power is only going to brow relative to America, and these are going to be the world's dominant powers for the foreseeable future. Trying to procure good relations with them would seem prudent.

Of course we could have/should have started back in 1999, probably sooner. Alas, we didn't and now the situation is even more dire than it was then.

Mr. Trump will have his work cut out for him here. By his selection of advisors as men like Paul Manafort and Carter Page whom Russian leadership may be inclined to trust indicates there may be some hope that he can negotiate this "soft landing" for America.

He and his team will be negotiating from a position of extreme weakness. Can the "deal maker" negotiate from a weak position. Hopefully he can.

Having read the article, the author of the article completely overlooks the grave national security threats to America that Iran and Cuba have posed to America and continue to pose to America. In doing so, the reader is deprived of useful context that would make the situation more understandable.

Maybe if the French bank in question would have done the following tbere situatikn would have been much different. 1.)Lobby the French government to stand up to the Americans on their behalf. While Americans including government officials may have a tendency to loathe the French, Americans including their leaders are generally afraid of the French. Fines cannot be imposed on a foreign company without that government's support and approval. Tnis is especially so with the French whom the Americans and their leaders fear and envy. 2.)Wait until AFTER the deals America made with Cuba and Iran before doing business with them. After all Americans and their government are very easy to figure out. They had to have known the deals were imminent. Had they waited a short time and/or procured the support of the French government the fine could have been avoided entirely.

Was tbe 9 billion dollar fine reasonable in this instance? In order to determine this, the grave national security threats Iran and Cuba have and were posing to the United States at the time the fine was imposed would have to be factored into the analysis. By refusing to do this the analysis made by the author of this article is incomplete.

With that said the analysis in the above post is unchanged. Tbe US dollar will lose it's role as world reserve currency and this cannot be prevented is unchanged. The 18 month time frame given by the author is very likely spot on.

The support of a major power such as Russia would be vitally important in this process to help ensure a "soft landing" for the US economy and to provide a back stop for American security against countries like Cuba, Iran, and North Korea would be extremely helpful.

For example, if the Russians were to inform the Iranians, North Koreans, and Cubans that hostile actions against America will not be tolerated and will be met with extreme prejudice on tbeir part would likely make them less likely to engage in such actions. This would be extremely helpful to both US national security and to the US economy.

About Me

I have been involved in numerous computer science projects since the 1980s, as well as developing numerous web projects since 1996.
These blogs are a summation of all the information that I read and catalog pertaining to the subjects that interest me.