In brief

The country's president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, will use his strict control of the security services to maintain domestic political stability over 2019-23. But his regime's ability to placate the country's elite will be limited by fiscal pressures, while the downside risk from mass public unrest over economic mismanagement will remain ever-present. We expect real GDP to contract throughout 2019-2023 thanks to declining oil production, and the current-account deficit to narrow.