Poll shows Obama with 10-point lead over Romney among Colorado independents

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney speaks at D’Evelyn junior/senior high school in Jefferson County (AAron Ontiveroz, The Denver Post)

Updated with a correction.

As Mitt Romney was giving a speech in Jefferson County on Sunday night to open what will likely be the defining 11 days of his campaign, a new poll came out that is potentially worrisome for the Republican presidential nominee.

It’s not the headline-grabbing 6-point lead for President Barack Obama that the Public Policy Polling survey of likely Colorado voters found. It’s how the survey got to that number.

To come up with their numbers, pollsters have to do more than just make a bunch of phone calls and then crunch the results. They also have to make a guess at what the electorate will look like on Election Day and then structure their likely voter sample to mirror that in order to pull their jumble of results into a coherent picture. It’s where art meets science in polling.

When PPP hit the state earlier this month, it gave Obama a 3-percentage-point lead over Romney, right at the outer edge of that poll’s margin of error. PPP’s sample for that poll predicted an electorate that was 37 percent each Republican and Democrat and 27 percent independent voters. (And, yes, that’s 101 percent, but it’s probably just an illusion of rounding.)

This time around, PPP includes a lot more independents in its sample — dividing its hypothetical electorate 34 percent each for Republicans and Democrats and 31 percent for independents. (Again, rounding.) Put another way, PPP’s sample includes roughly 20 more independent voters this time than last, even though the poll earlier this month had about 60 more voters in the sample (1,001 likely voters earlier this month to 940 likely voters for the most recent poll.)

Why is that significant? Because PPP shows Obama leading Romney by 10 percentage points with independent voters, 51 percent to 41 percent. With more of them in PPP’s soup, it starts tasting more like an Obama lead.

Now, this is where a couple caveats need to be given. PPP has a long history of being associated with a Democratic bias. The New York Times’ Nate Silver says the firm skews leftward. The poll-tracking website Real Clear Politics concurs. PPP, meanwhile, says it is nonpartisan and has defended itself against accusations of bias.

Second, conservatives have cried foul this year at any poll in Colorado that shows Democrats ahead of or equal to Republicans in representation in the sample electorate. Among all Colorado registered voters, Republicans currently lead Democrats 32.3 percent to 31.6 percent. Among active voters, Republicans are ahead 36-31.8. For Democrats to make up an equal slice of the electorate as Republicans, they would have to turn out at higher rates than Republicans, something conservatives say won’t happen.

But, in 2008, the Republican turnout advantage was only modest — about 16,000 more voters out of 2.4 million. The electorate in 2008 divided about 35 percent for each Republicans and Democrats and 30 percent for independents. Since Democrats and Republicans mostly cancel each other out vote-for-vote, that makes independent voters all the more important.

And that’s where the PPP poll might be a little concerning to Romney. The poll was taken after his infamous 47 percent remarks became public, and it shows an even wider lead for Obama among independents than the poll earlier this month, which put Obama at a 48-41 advantage.

But its impact is mitigated by the fact that no other poll appears to have so far replicated those numbers. A poll by the firm American Research Group before the 47 percent remarks found Obama leading 48-45 among independents in Colorado, within that poll’s 4-point margin-of-error. A Denver Post poll also before the remarks found Romney leading among independents 41-39. And the firm Purple Strategies put out a poll this month showing Romney ahead 48-38 among independents ahead 45-44 among independents. (The 48-38 divide was for Ohio; my bad.)

Still, the Romney camp likely can’t consider the PPP poll to be good news, as it is the second poll since the 47 percent remarks to show Obama with an outside-the-margin-of-error lead in Colorado. Down the stretch, Romney’s campaign intends to keep reaching into the middle for votes — “There’s been a heavy focus on those unaffiliated voters,” said Romney’s state director James Garcia — meaning a deficit in that area is not where the campaign wants to be.

Garcia, though, is optimistic regardless.

“This is a very close race,” he said. “We expect it to remain that way through Nov. 6.”

Every elected politician lives a good life while in government. They and their families enjoy the benefits of government. So, people expect help from government when needed. Americans will not vote to make Romney and his family’s lives much better.

Anonymous

If Romney were to win, his quality of life as president would go DOWN. There are many serious challenges that have been ignored for too long by our Campaigner-in-Chief, Mr. Obama. The next president’s leadership will economically make or break this country.

MediaMark

As would OURS!

nursewren

If you recall….Romney will take $1 salary. He doesn’t need nor will take your money for his personal pleasure. Do you research before you speak.

MediaMark

Yeah, and Tancredo was going to honor his term-limit pledge. Wanna buy a bridge?

charn

Obama now owns a 30 million dollar home in Hawaii. Pelosi directs our tax dollars to fund her brothers solar energy company and you’re bringing up Tancredo???? Please think before you write! You deminish whatever point you are trying to make when you don’t.

http://twitter.com/perk Perk

Good article and interesting analysis. But isn’t one of your assumptions that the Democratic voter percentage turnout will be as high as 2008? Given the change in emotional furor and the lack of a an exciting Democratic convention in Colorado — how likely is that?

http://www.facebook.com/KARENPINKYLYNNNOLTING Karen L Nolting

so sad people are still willing to vote for a man who is ruining this country! so very sad

Joey Bunch has been a reporter for 28 years, including the last 12 at The Denver Post. For various newspapers he has covered the environment, water issues, politics, civil rights, sports and the casino industry.