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Here’s how the novel coronavirus could impact Greater Cincinnati’s chance for a bus tax

The 31 bus travels west on East McMillan Street in the East Walnut Hills neighborhood of Cincinnati on Tuesday, March 17, 2020.(Photo: Sam Greene/The Enquirer)

This was all supposed to be over March 17. Yea or nay, voters were either going to make a historic push to support Cincinnati’s bus system or – as they’ve done every year since 1972 – they were going to send the issue to defeat.

But then, the novel coronavirus intervened. At the last minute, in-person voting was canceled in Ohio and voters now have until April 28 to get an absentee ballot in the mail.

Supporters of Cincinnati Metro’s levy, Issue 7 on the ballot, understand why the election was delayed, said Jared Kamrass, a general consultant for the campaign. But still, it’s a tough hit to take.

“Issue 7 and all the candidates’ campaigns out there were spending their resources based on March 17 being the last day,” Kamrass said. “The way I think of it, it’s like running a marathon and getting to the final mile and someone saying, ‘Oh, sorry, you still have 10 more miles to do.’ ”

Ohio has never before faced anything like COVID-19, so it’s impossible to predict exactly how it might impact the bus levy. But here are several factors that might come into play.

Timing – the presidential primary is essentially over

Cincinnati Metro’s board debated over when to go for a levy but ultimately decided to line up with Ohio's presidential primary. The thought was that Democrats would turn out in droves to pick their nominee and that Democrats, in general, are more likely than Republicans to vote for a transit levy.

But now, the Democratic primary is all but over. Joe Biden is the presumptive nominee, and voters who were excited about backing a different candidate might have less incentive to vote.

“A lot of people are going to get that ballot in the mail and be like, ‘Bernie’s out, I’m not voting,’ ” said Ryan Salzman, an associate professor of political science at Northern Kentucky University. “They may not even open their ballot now.”

On the flip side, there is evidence that allowing vote-by-mail is good for traditionally liberal issues such as transit levies, said Adie Tomer, a fellow with the Washington, D.C.-based Brookings Institution. So in that sense, Metro might be in a good spot.

“We just don’t have any kind of precedent here,” Tomer said. “The voters will tell us what the answer is.”

The need for transit is more evident

Bus ridership is down about 50% in Cincinnati as the majority of people are staying home. But the crisis has highlighted the need for a quality bus system to get essential workers to their jobs, whether they be doctors, nurses or grocery store employees.

And transit workers have been hailed as heroes as they keep driving their routes in the midst of the pandemic.

It’s complicated, Tomer said, because the economic crisis accompanying the virus might push more people to get rid of a car and try the bus.

At the same time, though, the virus itself might make people less willing to use transit as it involves riding with strangers.

Money is tight

Ohio workers have filed more than 855,000 unemployment claims since the crisis began, representing about 15% of the state’s jobs.

That means a lot of people are hurting financially and might be less inclined to support a new tax. Although, supporters note the 0.8% sales tax levy would mean a tax decrease for some since the city’s earnings tax for transit would go away.

But in general, said Salzman, the political science professor, people are worried about the future and might be less likely to open their wallets.

They might be looking at food banks that are low on supplies or families struggling to make mortgage payments. Then, Salzman said, they might look at the bus system and say, “Is this really what we need to be spending on?”

“I’d say the uncertainty is through the roof,” Salzman said, “and in moments of uncertainty, people tend to be really protective of their safety, their security and their wallets.”

The rally effect – people are banding together

Everyone is stuck at home, trying to navigate a new work environment that might include a spouse, a needy pet or stir-crazy children.

Everyone is worried – about finances, about family and friends on the front lines, about whether they’ll ever again be able to buy toilet paper.

Through the shared struggles, the virus has created a sort of rallying effect where people, although socially distant, are pulling together and supporting each other more than before, Salzman said. It’s not universal, of course, but it might be enough to make some voters more inclined to suspend skepticism and say yes to a new tax.

A sign thanking people deemed essential during the new coronavirus pandemic hangs outside near the temporally closed Revolution Rotisserie & Bar in Over-the-Rhine on April 2, 2020.(Photo: Albert Cesare / The Enquirer)

The Issue 7 campaign was out of money after March 17. There was nothing left for TV ads or expensive social media promotions. Any in-person campaigning was ruled out by social distancing. Instead, said Kamrass, the campaign consultant, Issue 7 has been leaning heavily on volunteers to make phone calls and send texts to potential supporters.

They’re trying to make sure everyone knows how to vote, Kamrass said, as voting by mail is new for many Ohioans.

“We feel we built a pretty good lead prior to March 17,” Kamrass said. “The campaign feels pretty confident that we’re doing just as well post-March 17, but obviously, our tactics have changed. We’re not on the air, we’re not able to be out in the community knocking on doors, so it’s a little harder to gauge.”