Market forces, not standings, could dictate moves at the deadline

NEW YORK — Eight teams in the American League are within five games of the second wild-card spot — with the Red Sox bringing up the rear of the pack.

Brian MacPherson Journal Sports Writer brianmacp

NEW YORK — Eight teams in the American League are within five games of the second wild-card spot — with the Red Sox bringing up the rear of the pack. On top of the three division leaders, six teams in the National League are within 61/2 games of the second wild-card spot. Most of those teams will be buying, not selling, in the final days before the July 31 deadline.

Such a market might well prompt the Red Sox to trade away players at positions of surplus no matter where they are in the standings on Tuesday.

“You just have to look at if there are areas where you have enough surplus, where you’re adding to the team without hurting the team in another area and if those are opportunities you can pursue,” general manager Ben Cherington said. “It’s just a balance.”

Pitching already was a sought-after commodity. With Cole Hamels signing an extension and Matt Garza sidelined until after July 31 with a fluid buildup in his triceps, pitching has only become more expensive. The Milwaukee Brewers traded Zack Greinke to Los Angeles on Friday night for three of the top 10 prospects on the Angels’ preseason Baseball America list.

The sky-high price for pitching affects the Red Sox in two ways.

For one thing, it makes a trade for a pitcher like Miami righty Josh Johnson close to cost prohibitive. That Johnson — whose contract takes him through 2013 — is the most attractive pitcher available gives the Marlins a chance to demand an exorbitant price, a price the Red Sox likely are unwilling to pay.

For another thing, it might make a second-tier pitcher like Cook too valuable not to trade. A team that doesn’t want to trade three top prospects for Johnson might be willing to trade one top prospect in a package for Cook — even after an outing in which Cook gave up a pair of two-run home runs.

Detroit already traded its best pitching prospect for pitcher Anibal Sanchez and infielder Omar Infante. If another team offers its best pitching prospect for Cook, Cherington would have no choice but to make that trade no matter where the Red Sox are in the standings.

The same might go for Shoppach, a catcher with a .523 slugging percentage who could help any number of other teams. A trade of Shoppach might be seen in some corners as the Red Sox being sellers — and thus giving up on the season — but a promotion of Ryan Lavarnway to replace Shoppach wouldn’t prevent the Red Sox from competing for a wild-card berth.

This is a new scenario Cherington faces. Market forces rarely have dictated what Boston has done at the trade deadline. The standings have tended to do that instead.

Even if American League teams have been bunched together in past years, the Red Sox have tended to be near the front of that bunch and thus in a position where they’ve always added pieces rather than subtracting.

Even in 2010, when the banged-up Red Sox were 71/2 games out in the American League East and 51/2 games out of the wild card, they made a trade to acquire catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and didn’t sell off any pieces more significant than reliever Ramon Ramirez.

A bad weekend at Yankee Stadium could leave the Red Sox hopelessly out of contention, particularly given the math they already face. A 41/2-game deficit in the wild-card standings in itself is not insurmountable, but they’d have to leapfrog at least six other teams in the process.

To win 90 games, a conservative estimation of the number of games the fifth-best American League team tends to win, the Red Sox would have to win 41 of their final 63 games — a .651 winning percentage.

“It’s an unfamiliar position, to be honest with you,” Cherington said. “Our direction has been clearly defined in the past. This year, we’re in a position where we do have to exercise caution relative to where we are and the cluster of teams ahead of us. We think we’re as good as or better than any of those teams, but they’re still ahead of us. There’s a math problem there when you start talking about 60 games left.”

Even if the Red Sox have a great weekend in the Bronx and look like they’re ready to go on a run, though, their general manager still might trade away a piece or two. The market might give him no choice.