20/20 Hindsight back in February

It’s not like we came into the season blind. Most of us knew the challenges that faced the Astros. But, just for fun, I looked back at the “5 Keys to the Season” entry from February 28. You may like to see a few of your comments, too.

It’s clear now. But, then, it was clear in February, too. Here are the 5 keys (as I defined them then) and how those have panned out:

1. Brandon Backe. “…the Astros’ season may be determined in part by how well Backe pitches in 2008.”

Backe obviously didn’t develop into the #2, although he posted career highs in a number of categories (IP, starts, Ks and home runs allowed). If Backe had turned his 8-12 record into an eight-game swing (12-8), he would be on target for the 15-win season I predicted it would take for him — and the Astros — to be successful.

This one’s simple: Bourn didn’t hit .300 and Matsui didn’t stay healthy, so they didn’t turn into the “table setters” (remember that term?) Ed Wade and Cecil Cooper had hoped. Matsui is a talented player — no one can argue that — when he’s on the field. But he’s lived up — or down — to the concerns of his critics because he won’t even match his MLB career high 114 games played.

3. Cecil Cooper — “They say managers don’t win a lot of games, but they can sure blow a few.”

The fact that Cooper has juggled his lineup again and again (93 different batting orders) does not necessarily support the critics who believe the first-year manager has failed. The spirit of Jason Lane, Adam Everett, Orlando Palmeiro and Morgan Ensberg live in 2008, which, along with injuries, has forced Cooper to juggle, juggle, juggle.

I said it about Phil Garner and I’ll say it about Cecil Cooper. He’s operating with a short roster, this time around in the pitching department.

4. Injuries — “Mark Loretta, Geoff Blum, Brad Ausmus or Darin Erstad provide adequate bench depth, but if they are forced into the everyday routine, it will change the face of the lineup, especially if one of the Big Three (Berkman, Tejada, Lee) are missing.

Loretta, Blum and Erstad are playing regularly now and have been in the lineup off and on all season long. In other words, one of the strongest elements on this team — the reserves — is on the field more than the bench. Blum and Erstad will likely top 300 at bats and Loretta should pass 250.

5. J.R. Towles — “Towles, however, will have his hands full with catching duties and carrying his weight at the plate.”

“Hands full” indeed. As it turns out, last year’s September experiment didn’t work at all. Towles’ failure to make the jump cost the Astros as much as any other factor. To be sure, Humberto Quintero has filled in nicely on the defensive side, but it should be an area the Astros address in the offseason.

These 5 keys may not be the only things that prevented the Astros from contending this season. However, if these had proved successful, Wade might be working on last minute waiver deals to push the Astros closer to the playoffs this season.

What key(s) did you see in pre-season that hasn’t panned out?

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Mike Lamb’s DFA presents an interesting option. The Twins are already on the hook for his 2009 salary, which means if he clears waivers, someone can pick him up on the cheap. A team could sign him for the league minimum next season while Minnesota pays him $3 million.

It’s probably a moot point since some contending team will likely work out a trade for him over the next few days.