MLB has the '63 Dodgers at 25 (I have them 37) the '79 Pirates at 24 (I'd have them 27) the '01 Diamondbacks at 23 I'd have them 29) the '93 Jays at 22 (I have them 42), the 62 Yankees at 21 (I have them 30) the 01 Mariners at 20 (I'm only considering WS winners), the '09 Yankees at 14 (I have them 28) the '69 Mets at 13 (I have them 38) the '95 Braves at 11 (I have them 33)

Friday, January 26, 2018

My first Super Bowl was 12; I think I remember 11 but that could just be highlights. I definitely recall 12, however, so I've seen 40 of these things in real time and been making picks nearly as long.

Patriots outright
Eagles +5

By most measures these were very evenly matched teams over the course of the regular season; the Eagles have the best offensive line in football and, in Cox/Graham, the two best front seven defenders in this game. If the Eagles controlled both lines of scrimmage in this game it wouldn't surprise.

And yet - you can't pick them to win; the difference is the quarterback, which is the most basic of analysis - Brady is still, age age 53, the best player in football, and Nick Foles, while coming off a great NFC Championship, had as many bad games as good ones replacing Carson Wentz, and the level of variance with him is just too high to say he's more likely to beat you than Brady.

I don't love the game, as is evidenced by my splitting the difference and taking the Eagles +5, the Patriots were dead and buried just a week ago at home against the Jags, there's at least some possibility of a Gronkowski concussion issue that might manifest itself in this game, and the Eagle team that blitzed through the Vikings was the best team in football this year.

And of course, like all right thinking people, I'm rooting against the Patriots so it's more fun to be on that side of this wager.

However - if you're picking, and I am, I'll take the guy who most now say is the greatest quarterback who ever lived over Nick Foles.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

The 31st Royal Rumble is Sunday from Philadelphia; your interest in this particular card probably rests on personal investment in the idea of the first ever women's Rumble match. I'm nestling comfortably into a middle aged white guy aversion to much of the current identity politics talk; there's a layer of WWE fandom less interested in bell to bell than they are in optics, but workrate remains more important to me than wokerate, and so much of the WWE women's revolution leaves me disinterested.

Here's the card.Universal Title Brock Lesnar (c) (with Paul Heyman) vs. Braun Strowman vs. Kane-This is the RAW title; Brock took from Goldberg at Mania and rolls on. He's going to keep it here in what will need to be a fairly short, fast paced, garbage match in order to be good. Brock's the monster babyface champ, he's going to keep this belt into a main event match at WM34. Strowman is also a monster babyface, booked to do ridiculous, superhuman things - similar to my thought about the women, Strowman isnt really what I do either. He's fine for this archetype, but there are big guys like Keith Lee or Jeff Cobb out there in the world who could also be in this spot and be good workers. Kane's here to get pinned unless Strowman gets pinned because of some type of HHH interference to set up a Mania match. Either way - it's probably not great and Brock keeps.

Brock kept in a short match no better than expected.

WWE Title: AJ Styles (c) vs. Kevin Owens and Sami Zayn
-This is the lineal WWF Champ, AJ is the 133rd WWF Champion, having taken from Jinder Mahal (who may have been the very worst wrestler ever to hold the belt...maybe Hogan's last run in 2002, he was worse, Vince had the belt for a week in '99, he was worse, if we recognize Andre in '88, he was a worse wrestler at the time than Jinder, and your mileage may vary on Stan Stasiak, but you can say Jinder's a bottom 5 all time wrestler to hold the WWF title...) back in May. He's the babyface, fighting a handicap match against heels Owens/Zayn; they are all part of a Daniel Bryan vs. Shane McMahon rival authority figure program on Smackdown. They have the ability to turn either Bryan or Shane heel in this match and switch the belts to make Owens/Zayn "co-champs" - or turn either heel in a failed attempt to screw AJ. It's a good story, albeit limited by what still looks like WWE aversion to clear Danielson to wrestle again and by the years of WWE authority figure storylines that have just burned that trope to the ground. These are 3 of the best wrestlers in the promotion, and I am looking forward to the match, but if feels more like a set up for the angle than like a match of the year candidate.

Edit - 3 1/2 stars, 16 minutes, this was well worked given the handicap gimmick, AJ kept.RAW Tag Titles: Seth Rollins and Jason Jordan (c) vs. Cesaro and SheamusSmackdown Tag Titles: Usos (Jey and Jimmy Uso) (c) vs. Chad Gable and Shelton Benjamin
-I mention this sort of incredulously every quarter when I do a preview of one of the big 4 PPVs, neither of these belts is the lineal WWF tag titles, they let that lineage die. The RAW titles began in '02, Rollins and Jordan were thrown together when Dean Ambrose went down with a serious injury, and they took from Cesaro/Sheamus a month ago. Jordan is Kurt Angle's son in storyline; that's fueled his heel turn as he's just not believable in that role (and maybe the role itself is just too ridiculous to believe) - Rollins remains a babyface, but it's Cesaro/Sheamus, who have been heels, who get the cheers in this program. This should be a very good match; Rollins/Jordan dropping the titles with some sort of issue between them to start gearing toward a WM34 match would make sense.

-Jordan's previous tag partner was Gable; he's now with the returning Shelton Benjamin, challenging the Usos for the belts in what should also be a good match. The Smackdown belts are even newer than the RAW belts, they were launched in 2016 - the Usos have held them since October and there doesn't seem to be a ton of momentum for a Gable/Benjamin run.

Sheamus/Cesaro took the titles in a disappointing match; the Usos kept in a 3 1/4 match.

That's the show other than the 2 Rumble matches; my strong rooting interest is for a Nakamura win to set up Nakamura/AJ at WM, but I don't have any level of confidence it will turn out that way. Like most Royal Rumbles, the spectacle of the Rumble match itself is enough to earn a buy.Edit: I went 4 on the men's match, the third best Rumble match of all time. Nakamura did go over.Edit: The women's match was 3 1/2, the format really helped cover up the work weaknesses (which were significant) - the extended late match sequence worked a little better with the men, but the layout for both matches was similarly good.

Currently there are no other matches, they maybe do something with the Cruiser belt as it is vacant with Enzo being released this week.

It's the Royal Rumble, of course you watch it. I've done it for Mania, SummerSlam, and Survivor Series. Here is my ranking of every match in the history of the Royal Rumble. Times are approximate, star ratings are for the 3 and up matches. Apologies if I missed anything.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Andre Drummond was a pretty significant snub this year; everything else is fine; I'd make a different choice here or there, but the one guy who definitely should be in this game who is not is Drummond.

LeBron picks first for the starters, when we get to the reserves Steph picks first. It's a ping pong draft.

LeBron
1. Kevin Durant - I think this is an easy pick; LeBron always shows a level of respect for Durant above the rest of the Warriors and I think he'd like to break the GSW group up.

Steph
1. Anthony Davis - I think Steph goes front count here, Giannis is sort of an obvious choice with KD gone, but there's a non-zero chance that the Warriors are in play for a free agent Davis and my guess is Steph would like to get him in the fold; he can also gamble that Giannis is still available in the next round.

LeBron
3. Kyrie Irving - my guess is LeBron doesn't want to deal with any "why didn't you pick Kyrie" questions given that Steph is unlikely to spend an early pick on a fellow PG, this will eliminate that.

Steph
3. Boogie Cousins - having Cousins/Davis on opposite sides would be more fun, but if the board falls this way, having guys who are familiar with you in the same frontcourt makes some sense. Steph also will get the remaining guard in his next pick, so he can have his choice of front court players here.

LeBron
4. Joel Embiid - last guy on the board for LeBron in round one; young guys tend to play harder than vets

Steph
4. DeMar DeRozan - a sneaky MVP possibility as the only starter from LA.

Steph
5. Klay Thompson - Steph's definitely going to take one of his guys here, I'll say he wants Klay.

LeBron
5. Draymond Green - so, Westbrook is the top player on the board among the reserves, but my bet is Steph doesn't really want to play with him and LeBron knows that, so LeBron further breaks up the Warriors by taking Draymond. If he goes Westbrook instead, Steph takes Dray next.

Steph
6. Damian Lillard - Steph's the only PG on the roster, if he doesn't want Westbrook, he takes Lillard.