Empirical and Mathematical Probabilities

Date: 12/04/98 at 15:16:23
From: Kristin M. Dettman
Subject: Probability
What is the difference between experimental probability and
mathematical probability?

Date: 12/04/98 at 16:45:02
From: Doctor Bill
Subject: Re: Probability
Kristin,
I don't know what "experimental" probability is, but I think you might
mean "empirical" probability.
Empirical probability means that you don't know anything about how an
event behaves, i.e. what are the number of possible outcomes and what
are the number of possible successes. So to find the probability of an
event, you have to do the experiment many times to get an idea, or look
at some data related to the event. As an example: "How much longer will
a man who is 50 years old live?" There is no way to know the answer to
this question without looking at a mortality table and noting the ages
of men who have died, and drawing some conclusion from those data. This
is called empirical (or posteriori) probability.
Mathematical (or priori) probability is based on the fact that you know
the number of possible outcomes and the number of possible successes.
For example, flip a coin. What is the probability of a head? You know
it is 1/2 because you know the number of possible outcomes and the
number of successes. Roll a die. What is the probability of a 4? You
know it is 1/6 because you know there are 6 possible outcomes and only
1 possible success. These results are based on mathematical
probability.
- Doctor Bill, The Math Forum
http://mathforum.org/dr.math/