>> Friday, December 14, 2012

Full sunshine will be on display for our Friday with highs in the upper 50s in many spots across the region.

Our next cold front will slide in Sunday and bring with it the chance of some showers Sunday and Sunday night. The European and NAM models then develop another wave of low pressure that rides through and gives us more rain chances Monday. The GFS is much drier Monday.

As I cautioned earlier in the week, we could see some big changes with the potential system in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. The upper level pattern remains very chaotic, and it now appears the energy will bundle much farther north and east than some other modeling had indicated. If that scenario is correct, our region winds up dry Tuesday and Wednesday. That appears to be the case as of now.Longer range...

Things still look to be lining up for a fairly interesting weather pattern for the final 10 days of the month. Another cold front will move through by next Thursday or Friday, and then we will watch for incoming storm systems from the west.

The 0z run of the GFS was fun for snow lovers to look at.....and I showed some panels from that in today's video. Please remember that you can take absolutely no specifics from the longer range modeling. However, I am just showing you that some players are on the field for the possibility of more interesting times later this month.

>> Thursday, December 13, 2012

Sunshine back with us today and tomorrow. Cold night ahead tonight with lows of folks in the 20s.

Cold front will bring some shower chances Sunday with the best rains probably occurring Sunday night into Monday morning.

As expected, the models continue to really struggle to resolve the details of the system Tuesday-Wednesday. In fact, the 6z GFS has totally lost the system as it keeps all of the energy phased way up north. See the video for more.

Bitterly cold air looks to plunge into the Lower 48 later next week into the weekend prior to Christmas. It remains to be seen how far south that cold air makes it, but there could be some fun and games for somebody wherever waves of low pressure try to ride along that front.

>> Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Waves of rain will develop through Georgia into South Carolina and mainly eastern North Carolina. However, a little rain could make it roughly as far west as I-85 at times today and tonight. It will be a cool day around the region as well.

High pressure builds in and gives us lots of sunshine tomorrow and Friday.

Another front will move in this weekend and generally give some shower chances from Saturday night through Sunday night. The Euro model is much heavier with the rain amounts than the GFS, especially late Sunday and Sunday night.

System next week....

Interesting system to track next week. Let me just say that the pattern is very chaotic with tons of upper level energy moving around the Lower 48. The development of the system next week depends on the spacing and interactions between disturbances to be just right to develop a closed upper air low across the Southeast and then off the mid-Atlantic.

I think the idea of some snow occurring maybe in the mountains of NC and then points north from there could be increasing just a bit in the Tuesday-Wednesday time period. But it is still overly, overly early. Anything south and east of there will be tricky at best to get any snow, but we will see.

And, again, let me caution.... if these pieces of upper level energy do not interact as is currently modeled, this system could vanish altogether. Would not surprise me at all.

It's frankly way to early to even mention any areas, even the mountains, as having the chance of snow. But I am just throwing some ideas out there for you.

>> Monday, December 10, 2012

A sharp cold front is approaching the region today. Ahead of the front, it will be mild again with highs in the 60s and 70s around here. Meanwhile, temps have plunged into the single digits deep down into the Plains states and some snow has flown as far south as Dallas this morning.

The chillier airmass will take hold around here by tomorrow and will then be with us the rest of the week.

A coastal low will form Wednesday and will spread some chilly rains inland. How far inland remains a question mark, but at this point, I am thinking roughly I 85.

And yes, I saw the 0z GFS printing out some snow Monday around the Carolinas. I get into this in the video, but the overall chances of that scenario unfolding are very small.