The Lib Dems could survive in government by going back to their roots

The national party is toxic for campaigners on the doorstep, but the popularity of local MPs may keep them in power in 2015

Power sharing with the conservatives has not enhanced the reputation of Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg, shown here with Prime Minister, David Cameron, at Pentland Brands earlier this week. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty

To find Liberal Democrats in Eastbourne, head for the Nuthouse. This turns out not to be an unkind metaphor but the name of the pub next door to the local party’s headquarters. The staff member who gives me directions warns, with weary resignation, that all the obvious jokes have been made. Besides, since joining the coalition, Lib Dems have been called a lot worse than “nuts”.

In Eastbourne, the infestation is a Conservative problem. This Sussex seaside resort was Tory for most of the past century. It was snatched by the Lib Dems in a famous byelection upset in 1990 but lost again in the general election two years later. It stayed blue until 2010, when it was finally cracked by Stephen Lloyd, a former businessman who had been closing in on the seat through the two previous general elections.

Lloyd is now dug in. He has busied himself conspicuously and, judging by my unscientific survey of the town’s residents, his toil has yielded high levels of recognition and support, some of it close to admiration. Local schemes to help the young unemployed come up more than once.

One NHS worker laments Lloyd’s failure to avert the downgrading of services at the local hospital but notes approvingly that he tried. She knows that he raised the matter in parliament. Whereas, her lunching partner interjects: “You never saw the Conservative when he was MP.”

Now the Tories badly need to win places like Eastbourne. Downing Street thinks Labour is beaten in the national debate on trust to manage the economy and on leadership, but turning that notional supremacy into territorial gains is tricky.

One handicap the Tories have is the atrophy of their campaigning muscle on the ground. Elderly supporters have died. Vigorous survivors have defected to Ukip. The antidote is money, much of it channelled through a sophisticated system of targeted mailshots. This is a service provided by Jim Messina, a former campaign manager to Barack Obama turned strategic adviser to Cameron. His expertise is in sifting heaps of data to generate personalised marketing messages – a note straight to you from your local candidate, showing concern for the very issues you care about: childcare for the harried working mother; pension reform for voters nearing retirement.

Labour and Lib Dem MPs deride this approach as the recourse of an empty-shell party with no activists, although some concede it makes them nervous to have their constituents bombarded with Cameron’s customised billets-doux.

For Lib Dems there is the added problem of a party identity that has become a drag on local candidates. Eastbourne’s enthusiasm for Lloyd is parochial. “I’ll vote for him,” says Dee, a young health club worker. “But I’ve lost all interest in them as a party.” Liz, a cafe owner in the town centre, is harsher. “I voted Lib Dem and almost instantly regretted it.” She is now undecided. “The Tories are wicked, they punish all the wrong people ... Labour are responsible for so many of the problems we have.” She is scathing about Nick Clegg – “so weak”, “a wet fish” – but expects Lloyd to keep his seat.

This is a familiar story for Lib Dems in the field, rarely told in Westminster. It explains why a residue of hope survives the caustic abrasion of national opinion polls. (“At the start of the year we thought the only way was up,” says one MP. “Turns out we were wrong.”) The deputy prime minister’s staff battle on in hope of a survival dividend, some late credit for going the distance in government, but even some loyalists accept that the leader’s image is broken beyond repair. “Is there anything he can say on any subject that doesn’t just make things worse?” asks one of Clegg’s ministers.

Such thorough brand contamination is demoralising for those in the party who thought coalition heralded a healthy metamorphosis. It was billed as a graduation from student protest party to governing maturity. That account ignored a longer history of running things at councillor level, but Clegg was unusual in his party for not having climbed up that way. Now the Lib Dems are drifting back to their roots, campaigning seat-by-seat for individual MPs, respected for good deeds in their patch. There are worse ways to get by in politics and, given the difficulty Labour and Tories face building a majority, a shrunken band of Lib Dems might yet find their way back into government in 2015.

Punished for compromising on principle, rewarded for service to their constituents, depleted but not destroyed, burned by power but holding it still – to the equal gratification and frustration of their enemies – the Lib Dems may be heading for the result they deserve.