UFC 158: GSP vs. Diaz – Preview, Predictions and Picks

UFC 158 takes place tonight in Montreal, Canada and there is some serious bad blood brewing, as UFC Welterweight Champion Gerorges St-Pierre defends the title against challenger Nick Diaz. On a welterweight heavy card, Carlos Condit takes on Johnny Hendricks and UFC President Dana White announced that the winner of this matchup will be the number one contender for the UFC Welterweight Title. So the winner of main event will take on the winner of Condit vs. Hendricks for the Welterweight Title at a future date. The card is absolutely loaded, so let’s get to the picks, my full record is available below:

Mike Ricci (7-3) vs. Colin Fletcher (8-2) – Lightweight Bout – A finalist for The Ultimate Fighter Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson, Ricci is a very talented and accurate striker, who is fighting in front of his own crowd in his native Canada. If you do not know who Colin Fletcher is yet, that is about to change, because of his persona alone. Fletcher is nicknamed “The Freakshow” and he sports a Mohawk and is covered in tattoos, he has walked to the cage dressed as a clown before, and is very tall and lanky for a lightweight. He was a contestant on the UK version of The Ultimate Fighter, and made his UFC debut at UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs. Pearson, where he lost to Norman Parke. Fletcher will be entertaining, however, Ricci is the more polished fighter at this point and gets my pick. THE PICK: Ricci By Decision

Chris Camozzi (18-5) vs. Nick Ring (13-1) – Middleweight Bout – Chris Camozzi is coming off of three consecutive wins in the UFC, and although he has bounced between the UFC and smaller promotions, he is an impressive (5-2) in the UFC All-Time. I have picked against Nick Ring often in the past, and he continues to prove me wrong, he only has one loss in his career which was a decision loss to dangerous Tim Boetsch. This is one of the tougher fights on the card to pick, and both fighters have been on a roll as of late, but Ring has earned my respect over the course of hid last few fights and he is the pick. THE PICK: Ring By Submission In The Second Round

Jake Ellenberger (28-6) vs. Nate Marquardt (32-11-2) – Welterweight Bout – Jake Ellenberger has only one blemish on his record over his last eight fights, a loss to Martin Kampmann, where he was knocked out with knees in the second round. He has been one of the more dangerous Welterweights in the UFC over the past four years, with only two losses on his record, the other being to contender Carlos Condit. UFC Veteran Nate Marquardt returns to the promotion after two fights in Strikeforce (1-1) where he was the Welterweight Champion, he beat Tyron Whoodley for the then vacant Welterweight Championship in his first bout with the promotion, then lost the title to Tarec Saffiedine in the final Strikeforce show. This should be an excellent back-and-forth fight that could go either way, however I give the slight edge to Ellenberger. THE PICK: Ellenberger By TKO In The Second Round.

Carlos Condit (28-6) vs. Johnny Hendricks (14-1) – Welterweight Bout – As I noted in the introduction, UFC President Dana White announced that the winner of this bout will be the number one contender for the Welterweight title. This is the toughest fight on the card to call for me, because both of these fighters are warriors, who will put it all on the line to have a shot at the title, and I expect this to really be a war. Johnny Hendricks is a former wrestler at Oklahoma State University, where he won the NCAA Division I wrestling title at 165-pounds in 2005 and 2006, finishing second in 2007. He is an incredible wrestler, but what makes him so dangerous is his left hand, which has become one of the most dangerous weapons in the sport. He can knockout any opponent at any time with that big left hand, as he showed in his last match, when he knocked out Martin Kampmann in 0:46 seconds. Carlos Condit is a very well rounded fighter, he has won 13 fights by knockout and 13 fights by submission, and just two by decision. Condit was the UFC Interim Welterweight Champion, until injured champion Georges St-Pierre beat him by unanimous decision in an absolute war this past November, and now he wants that title back. This should be an excellent fight, Condit needs to make sure not to get hit with the hammer of a left hand that Hendricks will be throwing early and often, but Condit is one of the better psychological fighters out there, and I think he will avoid the left. In what is my pick for fight of the night, and I love both of these fighters so it is really difficult to pick, I give Condit the edge to height and reach (6’2 to 5’9). THE PICK: Condit By Decision

Nick Diaz (26-8-1) vs. (c) Georges St-Pierre (23-2) – Welterweight Championship Bout – This fight has been a long time coming, there is legitimate bad blood here, and these two men clearly do not like each other. Nick Diaz is from the streets of Stockton, California and he talks a lot of trash, but he backs it up. His cardio and stamina is second to none, his boxing is incredible, his endurance is unmatched. He has repeatedly called out St-Pierre in the media, which St-Pierre has taken as a lack of respect, and he is a man that deserves the respect of everyone who has ever been around the sport. Georges St-Pierre catches some flak from UFC fans, because he does not often finish fights, he has the most wins in UFC History by decision (10). He has to be respected, Georges St-Pierre has no weaknesses, he can do it all and often wins by adapting a style that best suits his opponent. He has the second most wins in the history of the UFC (17), the most consecutive UFC Welterweight Title defenses (7), and is tied for the most successful defenses of the UFC Welterweight Title (7) with Matt Hughes. St-Pierre has prepared for the strong boxing of Nick Diaz by sparring with boxer Lucian Bute (31-1) who is of a similar stature of Diaz. I expect that St-Pierre will look to take this fight to the mat early, which will neutralize the dangerous hands of Diaz, and although Diaz is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt the advantage on the ground goes to the stronger St-Pierre. Although fans in the United States won’t love it (the fight is Montreal and GSP is a National Hero in Canada) because St-Pierre won’t finish Diaz, I think he will impose his will on Diaz on the ground and win a decision, retaining the title. THE PICK: St-Pierre By Decision.