Retail experts foresee weakest holiday sales since 2009

By Andria Cheng

Bloomberg

Retailers haven’t impressed Wall Street with their back-to-school sales or their outlooks for the remainder of the year, and ShopperTrak’s holiday-sales forecast is doing nothing to brighten the picture.

Holiday sales are expected to rise 2.4% in November and December this year, compared with the 3% increase in 2012, according to the mall-traffic tracker, adding that the two months represent about one-fifth of annual sales. That would mark the industry’s worst performance since 2009.

Worse yet, store traffic is expected to decrease 1.4%, following a 2.5% increase last year.

Well over 90% of U.S. retail sales still take place in physical stores, he said.

Economic factors aside, retailers also have to contend with the fact that there are only 25 days, seven fewer than in 2012, between Black Friday and Christmas this year, ShopperTrak said.

Hanukkah, which begins 11 days earlier this year, will likely push retailers to bring their holiday pitches forward, with promotions likely beginning as early as the day after Halloween, the firm said.

“Christmas sales will be anemic,” Craig Johnson of Customer Growth Partners told MarketWatch, adding that back-to-school sales, the No. 2 selling period after the holiday season, is wrapping up as the worst since 2009. His firm and the trade group National Retail Federation will both release holiday forecasts in October.

There are already signs that competition will be heated. Wal-Mart
/quotes/zigman/245476/quotes/nls/wmtWMT, for instance, is for the first time offering a free layaway program this holiday season. Toys “R” Us said it plans to roll out “an aggressive marketing” program, including personalized emails. It said its loyalty incentives will be “enhanced.” And it, too, is offering free layaway.

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Behind the Storefront is a blog about all things retail. It’s aimed at investors, shoppers and anyone else with a passion for learning about what drives consumer behavior. Hosted by Andria Cheng, Behind the Storefront will cover the business, brands and shopping behavior that’s behind some of the biggest companies, and largest employers, in the world. You can reach Andria at Acheng@marketwatch.com.