Saturday, April 26, 2014

M.N.: Methinks, it is not Putin as much, as Russian Military and other "siloviki", striving to wash off the shame and humiliation of past years and what they perceive as their "defeats" and itching for "revansch". It is a logical culmination of their steady empowerment during Putin's reign. It is their "Invisible Hand" which was present since mid-1990-s and "triumphed" in early 2000-s. Poor Vovchick just tries to harness, ride and direct these forces to stay afloat politically. Replacement of Serdyukov, who tried to control them and whom they hated almost openly by "their guy" Shoigu (apparently Putin resisted this move as long as he could) was a turning point. Their attempts to oppose and overturn Serdyukov's "amnesty" is an indirect confirmation of this line of thought. However, their chest pumping determination and brazenness might exit a la hot air ex "inflated tanks" very fast, just as it did in 1854-56, 1904-05, 1914-16 and in 1941-43.

Thousands of Russian troops are maneuvering along the border, with Russian fighter jets entering Ukraine’s airspace. Ukrainian leaders have warned that border crossings by any soldiers will be considered an invasion, even while the country pursues military operations against a pro-Russian rebellion in the east. Washington and Moscow hurl ever more heated pronouncements. The first casualties lie in fresh graves.

At first glance, the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, seems to have strong reasons to dispatch his tanks: shaping the Ukraine he wants well before elections scheduled for May 25 put a new, legitimate government in place; reclaiming an area that was historically part of Russia; gaining direct access to natural resources and factories that have been crucial to Moscow’s military-industrial complex since Soviet times. And his land grab of Crimea in March made him wildly popular at home.

Yet the reasons for Mr. Putin to refrain from further military adventurism make a longer, more tangled list: the cost of a huge occupation force and the responsibility for the welfare of millions more people; the effect of new, more severe Western sanctions on an already weak economy; the possibility of significant Russian casualties caused by an insurgency in eastern Ukraine; a new, implacably anti-Russian western section of Ukraine; and likely pariah status internationally.

On balance, the negatives would seem to outweigh the positives, analysts said.

“Military intervention from Putin’s point of view is Plan B,” Mark Galeotti, a New York University professor and expert on Russia’s security forces currently doing research here, said recently. “It is not off the table, but it is not the ideal outcome.”

Mr. Putin would rather feed the insurrection from afar, analysts said, never quite allowing the calm that would give Ukraine the opening needed to join the European Union, or worse, NATO. It is a tactic Russia has deployed successfully in previous attempts by former Soviet republics to shift westward.

However, any conversation or briefing paper about Russia’s next moves, particularly its military moves in Ukraine, begins with a broad caveat. Few expected that Mr. Putin would seize Crimea in a matter of weeks.

“Nobody, including Putin, knows what he may do next as the situation changes,” the Royal United Services Institute, a military and security research organization in London, said in an analysis this month.

There are signs that Russia seems poised to invade.

On Thursday, Ukraine started tentative armed operations to dislodge pro-Russian militants from government buildings in 10 eastern towns. Russia countered with extensive military maneuvers along the frontier, including what the Pentagon said were a half dozen violations of Ukrainian airspace in 24 hours. Russia denied that.

Mr. Putin used historical arguments to claim Crimea. He recently inaugurated a similar discourse on southeastern Ukraine, noting how huge parts of it were called Novorossiya, or New Russia, when first captured in czarist times. The rights of ethnic Russians still living there need to be protected, he said.

Significant Russian military assets, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, Navy ship gears, and jet and helicopter engines are all produced in eastern Ukraine. Vladislav Zubok, a Russian Cold War expert teaching at the London School of Economics who has been researching the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, said senior Soviet officials were panicked at the prospect of losing both Crimea and Ukraine’s industrial heartland. So the current crisis has deep roots.

But nothing is that straightforward.

Perhaps a more significant precedent, Professor Zubok said, are the high-profile military maneuvers, without an invasion, long recommended by the K.G.B. to destabilize restive neighbors. Russia deployed that tactic in Berlin in 1958, and in surrounding Poland during the 1980-81 Solidarity uprisings, for example. If Moscow is following that strategy, no invasion is imminent, he said.

The main factor arguing against invasion is the risk to Russia’s prosperity, which Mr. Putin restored.

“Putin will have to explain why he is risking war and sanctions and how he will improve the lot of seven million people there,” Professor Zubok said. “How to do that and still maintain the standard of living of all Russians? He would really be saying: ‘Guys, it is all for the Russian motherland now. It is time to tighten your belts.’ ”

Mr. Putin and his closest advisers and allies have brushed off the Western travel and banking sanctions imposed on them after the seizing of Crimea. But the threat of a major economic blockade, sanctions against entire sectors of the economy that would probably be set off by a Ukraine invasion, are another matter.

“The scenario is like what happened to Iran,” said Igor Korotchenko, a member of a civilian board that advises the Russian military and the editor in chief of National Defense Magazine. “The Russian Federation is not interested in bringing troops into eastern Ukraine.”

Although the Ukrainian Army is weak, it numbers 70,000, and the country has a long history of partisans attacking invaders. The specter of Slavs killing Slavs would soon sour the public on the invasion, unless the Russian Army was dispatched as a peacekeeping force after mass casualties caused by the Ukrainian military.

In eastern Ukraine, regional polls have found that at most one-third of the population, depending on the city, supports joining Russia.

In Crimea, Russian soldiers were greeted warmly, and needed to hold only the Isthmus of Perekop, three miles wide, to sever Crimea from Ukraine. In eastern Ukraine, if the 40,000 Russian troops now estimated to be camped along the border crossed over, it is likely they would be attacked. Russia would also be responsible for a flood of refugees.

“You cannot occupy this region only with these small green men,” said Alexander M. Golts, an independent Russian military analyst, referring to the anonymous soldiers in Crimea whom Mr. Putin later admitted were elite Russian soldiers. “So you beat those poor Ukrainians. What then? You will have to establish a new border. You will not need 40,000 troops, you will need 140,000.”...

By Lally Weymouth, Published: April 25

Yulia Tymoshenko, the Ukrainian opposition leader released from jail after former president Viktor Yanukovych fled the country in February, walks with a crutch. Now campaigning for president, she spoke with The Post’s Lally Weymouth this week in Kiev. Excerpts:

Q. You must have had a hard time in 2½ years in prison.

A. It is horrible to remember. I was in a special jail where psychological torture and pressure were the main goal. No normal person could survive such conditions.

But you did.

I had no choice but to live through this. As a matter of fact, during the two years, I was never given the possibility of going out of this room. All the . . . windows were sealed with non-transparent tape. I was always supervised by women prison custodians, and they were instructed not to be away from me further than one meter. When I was going to sleep, they would be at my pillow; when I was going to eat, they were near me. And when I was preparing documents, they were looking at what I was writing. . . . I also had three video cameras in my room.

So how did you end up in jail?

From the very first days of Yanukovych’s arrival in office, it became clear that he was going to destroy me as his main political opponent. He wasn’t ready to have a strong and active opposition in the country. From the very first days . . . they started opening up ridiculous criminal cases against me. The first two cases that they fabricated failed, and they didn’t even manage to bring them to court. Later on he found another reason to open up a case against me, which was “signing gas agreements with Russia” that I didn’t sign. And he used this as a reason to put me in jail for seven years. I am convinced [that] if Yanukovych [had] stayed in power and in office, I would never have been liberated.

Did you have the opportunity to flee the country before going to prison?

Yes, I had such an opportunity.

Why didn’t you take it?

I believed that if I did that and showed my weakness, that would make every Ukrainian weak — every Ukrainian who wanted to resist dictatorship — and I could not leave my country. They [The Yanukovych government] wanted me to escape. One week before my arrest, they warned me that they were going to arrest me on the 5th of August. I recorded an address to the Ukrainian people in which I called on everyone to be strong.

How do you see your presidential race here in the country? You are behind in the polls.

That’s true. When I got into the election campaign, it was already in full swing and I had very little time to deliver my ideas to the people. During the last 15 years, an old oligarchic system of clans and their TV channels have been destroying my reputation.

Do you mean Mr. [Petro] Poroshenko?

We have got clans that have been working for many years. The clan of Poroshenko is one of them. He has got his TV channel. Unfortunately, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine did not establish an open economy. Ukraine established a corrupt, authoritarian system. When I came to power for a short time, I tried to remove the oligarch system and to establish a market economy and democracy. During the short time when I stayed in power, the oligarchs lost their influence. But when they came back, they put me in jail.This was the second time they put me into jail. The first time was in 2001. At that time, I spent 42 days in prison.

How do you see the situation on Ukraine’s border? Do you think [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin will stop?

I do not believe that Putin will stop.

I think that Putin sees himself as the leader of the world, who dictates the new world order. He wants to break the stability that has been established in the world. He attempted to impose his aggressive leadership to the world when he invaded Georgia. However, the world interpreted that as if it was a local story. Later on, he started unifying around himself dictators of the world by giving them an umbrella of protection. He resumed his influence in Syria. And then he continued his plan in Ukraine.

With the annexation of Crimea?

Crimea and then the south and eastern borders. I think his goal is to absorb the whole of Ukraine.

Do you think he will get it?

I think it all will depend on what the Western democratic world will be doing. I am convinced that Putin understands only the language of force. Whether he will continue terrorizing the civilized world will depend on how much force is used to stop him.

So sanctions are not going to stop him?

I think the sanctions must be strong enough to threaten the economic and financial stability of Russia. I have got the impression that this is the level of sanctions for which the Western world is not ready. It seems to me that both the United States and the E.U. underestimate the real threat of this situation.

What did you think about the Geneva meeting?

I think the Geneva agreement will not be executed by Putin. Putin must [believe he is] deceiving the entire civilized world when he says there are no Russian military troops over there in the east, just as before he said there were no Russian troops in Crimea. I am convinced that Putin will go as far as the Western world will allow him to go.

You’ve talked about forming some kind of self-defense brigades.

During the last four years, the pro-Russian dictatorship that was ruling the country did everything [it could] to destroy our army. That is why I made the decision to call upon volunteers who have some military experience to get united into territorial self-defense units. I am doing everything possible to ensure that such an army consisting of volunteers is formed in Ukraine — an army that is patriotic and committed to Ukraine, consisting of people who have some relevant military experience. In addition to that, I have started negotiations with separatists who are supported by the Russian special troops. These Russian special troops are trying to take our territories [in the east]. I am trying to separate the separatists from the Russian military units.

You yourself went to the east?

I have spent the last few days in the epicenter of the events. I went to the administrative buildings that were taken over, and I asked people who had direct communications with those who were occupying the buildings to come out. And they came to negotiate. We were talking with them about how now is the time to give more independence to the regions of Ukraine, but we must keep the territorial integrity of Ukraine and must stop supporting the military troops of Russia, as has been done by some Ukrainian citizens. For the people that live in the east, it is very important to have a dialogue with the authorities, and I want to be the politician who conducts that dialogue with them.

It’s a matter of trust. I was born in the east of Ukraine. My whole family is there, and I know how people who live in the east feel.

They feel neglected?

Yes, they feel neglected.

But aren’t the Russians there in the east and guiding events? What can you do about that?

There are no doubts that operations against Ukraine are conducted by Russian special forces.

And they are in the buildings with the separatists, right?

The Kremlin has organized and arranged everything. However, they are trying to get support inside Ukraine from the small groups of people who share separatist views. I want to break this connection. I want to make sure that people in the east with such ideas of separatism get more independence but stay inside Ukrainian territory. I am also trying to make sure Russia loses the base of support on which this mission is based. It is going to be the first and partial victory over the aggressor.

I asked Mr. Poroshenko about how much you two argued after the Orange Revolution, which people say is one reason the Orange Revolution failed. Have you learned anything from this? Are you going to argue again?

The reason why the Orange Revolution failed was not because the leaders were fighting with each other but because the president who was elected on the wave of the Orange Revolution took over all the corrupt schemes that existed during the previous presidency. Within a couple of months, the oligarchs had adopted a new president. Clearly, with this background, we [Poroshenko and I] had a clear conflict. A few months later [then-President Viktor] Yushchenko made his choice by staying in contact with oligarchs and by dismissing me from the position of prime minister. Today there is a big threat that the consequences of this revolution will not be what we want them to be if the de facto oligarchs stay in power and retain their control.

Are you referring to Poroshenko?

I am not against big business. I am against politics and business being in corrupt connections with each other. Poroshenko now continues this story. The most powerful corrupt group that was near Yanukovych was [businessman Dmytro] Firtash , [former fuel and energy minister Yuri] Boyko and Serhiy Lyovochkin [former chief of staff to Yanukovych].

And they are still around?

Now they have adopted Poroshenko. The FBI had initiated a criminal [bribery] case against Firtash [and] found him in Vienna. Poroshenko and [politician Vitali] Klitschko went recently to Vienna and met Firtash, Lyovochkin and Boikin there. They agreed on strategic cooperation. After that, Firtash came out and made a public statement that he supports Poroshenko. Firtash owns one of the biggest television channels here. This channel starts transmitting the election campaign of Poroshenko. Lyovochkin makes a public statement about supporting Poroshenko. Lyovochkin de facto becomes the campaign manager of Poroshenko. Now there is the question of, what has the revolution changed.

So you want Ukraine to become a modern, democratic country without corruption?

With European integration.

And you don’t know if you can win, but you will try?

I have a chance to win. I do not understand why some people in the West think Poroshenko is a democratic person. This is a big mistake. Now a new Kremlin group is being formed in Ukraine, and we need to oppose this as much as we can.

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Russia should join NATO: the benefits for the Global Security are enormous

To reformulate Lord Ismay's phrase: 1) Take Russia in, 2) Continue keeping Germany down, 3) Assert and exercise the US leadership position within the NATO as a unifying and directing force and vector.

"Ловец Человеков"

Connected? The halo is there. And the Book is there. And the disciples are there. But where is the Light of Understanding, in this big curved dark tunnel of a vision? Where is the big red dot? Where is the new beginning?

Russia and US Presidential Elections of 2016 - Google News

Russia international behavior - Google News

RUSSIA and THE WEST

russia ukraine - Google News

West, Russia, Putin

US - Russia relations - Google News

Hillary Clinton and rock group Pussy Riot

"Great to meet the strong & brave young women from #PussyRiot, who refuse to let their voices be silenced in #Russia. 1:09 PM - 4 Apr 2014" - Former secretary of state Hillary Clinton tweeted a picture Friday of her posing with members of the anti-Vladimir Putin punk rock group Pussy Riot. Clinton met with the women during the "Women in the World Summit" in New York. The group has emerged as chief opponents of Putin, and three members were jailed in 2012 after an anti-Putin performance at a church. The tweet has been re-tweeted almost 10,000 times.