Friday, May 19, 2017

Since my last post I've had a chance to look at the YouGov datasets, and I was particularly interested in seeing what has happened to SNP voters from 2015. It's important to stress there has been movement in both directions - 10% of people who voted Labour two years ago are now planning to vote SNP, as are 7% of people who voted Liberal Democrat, and even 1% of people who voted Tory. But obviously that is more than offset by the people who have moved from the SNP to a unionist party.

It shouldn't be any great surprise that 10% of the SNP's support has moved direct to the Tories - there are bound to be voters, especially in rural areas, who used to vote SNP for reasons that had nothing to do with the constitution, and who now feel that a stridently pro-Brexit/anti-independence party better reflects their views. More interesting, though, are the 8% of SNP voters who have switched back to Labour. Because the SNP's vote was twice as big as Labour's in 2015, that means (if the poll is accurate) there has actually been net movement from the SNP to Labour, in spite of the fact that Labour's overall vote has continued to fall. I'm not convinced that finding can be explained by people having a change of heart on independence, because Labour's current coalition of support is considerably less anti-independence in character than its 2015 coalition was. 25% of people who currently plan to vote Labour would vote Yes to independence, compared to just 13% of people who voted Labour in 2015. So it looks very much like there is a significant number of people out there who are pro-independence, and who have actually voted SNP at least once in the recent past, but who are nevertheless planning for some inexplicable reason to vote for the sinking ship that is Labour. If the SNP are looking to recover some lost ground, that group may be the most obvious low-hanging fruit.

It's smaller beer, but we can also take some heart from the fact that 2% of SNP voters from 2015 say they plan to vote Green. With no Green candidate to vote for in the vast majority of constituencies, it's not unreasonable to suspect that most of those votes will be heading back to the SNP - which could be enough to boost the overall SNP vote share by 1%.

20 comments:

I am pretty sure this would be real principled lefties who have waited for an actual labor candidate for decades age were snp when it was a lefty independence party who are dissapointed that it is not more actively lefty, even if the snp is constrained from doing what it wants by outside forces. Plus, their are actual candidates!

It's a bit more complicated than that. Labour have lost a lot of their traditional support to the Tories (some of it via UKIP), but that's been offset by movement from Lib Dem to Labour in 2015 which hasn't gone back.

The UK or England is going to vote Tory and get a Tory Government for the whole of the UK. There is no consolation in the good fight or Corbyn was a decent chap pity he didn't win.The UK, and that includes us, will have a Tory Government. The Tory Government will not be recognising that Labour voters and Corbyn have fought the good fight, they will enact a wholly Tory agenda.Scottish Tories will dance allover us if voters in Scotland do not give as strong a voice for Scots as possible. They don't care about 'I believe in Labour and I am a principled voter, as long as the voter weakens the SNP they will dance a jig and blow raspberries in your face.They don't care about principled Greens, principled socialists, I have never voted in my life lazy fools, committees of Yes voters. They will fuck you all.So don't be so fucking dumb and vote for the party that can fuck the Tories, that is the SNP.

In some ways, the SNP enables the tories, by introducing a bogeyman down south that the tories can use to scare would-be labour voters. That's almost certainly what cost Labour the election in 2015. It wont be the decisive factor this time - that'll be Labour being led by Michael Foot mark 2.

Love, Love, Love.Love, Love, Love.Love, Love, Love.There's nothing you can do that can't be done.Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.It's easy.Nothing you can make that can't be made.No one you can save that can't be saved.Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.It's easy.All you need is love.All you need is love.All you need is love, love.Love is all you need.Nothing you can know that isn't known.Nothing you can see that isn't shown.Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.It's easy.All you need is love (All together, now!)All you need is love (Everybody!)All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

It occurred to me today that the SNP de-fanged, with independence taken away from them and no route for a legal referendum, are, basically, a less competent version of the LibDems. Even the colours are somewhat similar.

What a cruel lady our Theresa is, turning you into LibDems. All you have to do now is engage in a spot of same sex experimentation and you'll get your LibDem membership card :0)

Love, Love, Love.Love, Love, Love.Love, Love, Love.There's nothing you can do that can't be done.Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.It's easy.Nothing you can make that can't be made.No one you can save that can't be saved.Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.It's easy.All you need is love.All you need is love.All you need is love, love.Love is all you need.Nothing you can know that isn't known.Nothing you can see that isn't shown.Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.It's easy.All you need is love (All together, now!)All you need is love (Everybody!)All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).