Hurricane SANDY

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HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
MISSIONS THIS MORNING HAVE REVEALED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
INTENSITY OR OVERALL STRUCTURE OF SANDY...EVEN THOUGH SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM AND THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BENE AS LOW AS 951 MB. THE AIRCRAFT DATA...
ALONG WITH DATA FROM SHIPS...BUOYS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATION SITES
INDICATE...HOWEVER...THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUT TO ABOUT 150 N MI TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THE 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO ABOUT
200 N MI IN THAT SAME QUADRANT. BASED ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
MAINTAINED AT 65 KT.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TRACK WOBBLES BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 045/12 KT. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A
STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVED EASTWARD TOWARD THE
U.S. EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS THE TROUGH UNDERCUTS
SANDY TO ITS SOUTH...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL
LANDFALL OCCURS WITHIN 48 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE
OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN THE 12 TO 36-HOUR
PERIOD AND SANDY IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHILE THE HURRICANE REMAINS OVER SSTS
GREATER THAN 25C. AS A RESULT...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SANDY TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY WHEN
IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE WARM GULFSTREAM TONIGHT. BY 36 HOURS...
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS
UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINIC FORCING...AND A TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE
OVERALL IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL...
THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...INDICATE
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 32.5N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 34.0N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 36.4N 70.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 38.7N 72.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 40.1N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1200Z 41.3N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/1200Z 44.5N 76.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1200Z 46.6N 73.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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