Do Top Prospects Get Traded?

What are Herk Robinson's chances?

As a Royals fan, these days I am quite interested in whether Royals GM Herk
Robinson can turn aging and expensive players like Kevin Appier
and Jeff King into high quality young talent useful to the team as it
rebuilds. That's why I was particularly intrigued by the questions
Rany
Jazayerli asked Robinson about the team's pursuit of top-notch minor leaguers.
In the interview, Robinson surprisingly claimed "(t)eams now put a premium
on all their top prospects, and few teams are able to give up the talent it would
take to get players like that [1970s Royals John Mayberry, Hal
McRae, Amos Otis, Larry Gura, and Freddie Patek obtained
from other teams] today. You just can't get it done anymore."

Reading that, I thought that the accuracy of this assertion can be checked.
I've looked at prospect lists from the past four seasons and determined
which top-ranked young players were traded (omitting those who were already
significant major league players when they were dealt--like 1995-96 #5
Brian Hunter, #7 Charles Johnson, and #11 Armando
Benitez). Below, these lists are presented. I also very briefly
discuss the overall quality of these traded players and discuss the
implications for the Royals.

As I looked at the lists, I also paid special attention to the teams
sending players away. After all, the most important question is whether the
organizations said to be interested in Appier and King are willing to deal
young players. Based on press reports, that apparently means Atlanta,
Boston, Cleveland, Houston, St. Louis and Texas. Also, since Rany mentioned
D'Angelo Jimenez in his interview, I looked for the Yankees too.

A few notes about the lists:

First, two asterisks (**) indicate that a trade occurred just after the
expansion draft.

Second, I've included the main player(s) sent away in trade for the
prospect. I apologize for the few missing data cases. They're caused by a
combination of faulty memory and lack of access to a new Baseball
Register.

Finally, I'd like to thank Erik Johnson, John Perkins,
Phil Ponebshek and Jason Rosenstock of STATLG-L for their
assistance in clarifying some transactions. Any remaining errors are mine.

The 1995-96 Baseball America Top 100 prospect list included these
players who were subsequently traded over the following seasons:

This is an interesting list: it includes a few players who are now
established (Abreu, Acevedo, Davis, Hermanson, and Schmidt), some very
promising young players (Cedeno, Haynes, Konerko, Lee, Rivera, and Silva)
and some apparent busts (Goodwin, Granger, and Newfield).

As I expected, there are players here from some of the key teams: Atlanta,
Boston and Houston. Predictably, there are also several Yankees. Actually,
the list is dominated by so-called "big market" playoff-bound teams
sending away some of their best prospects. Arguably, it is much easier to
obtain the "second tier" guys (numbers 40 to 100) than the very
top ones--but some of the lower rated players turn out to be more highly
regarded prospects on future lists, meaning their perceived value was higher
when they were actually traded.

The 1996-97 Baseball America Top 100 prospect list included these
players who were traded:

Again, this is an interesting list, and it includes quite a few repeats
from the previous list. Cruz and Graves are the notable additions, though
Guillen, Varitek and Wasdin are potentially valuable players too. Atlanta,
Cleveland, and New York are all represented here. The list is shorter, in
part, because it is more recent. This could mean that teams are more
willing to part with prospects after they have had them around for a few
years (and are disappointed by their development), or it could mean that
other teams are interested in prospects after they advance through the
system. In the case of pitchers, this might mean demonstrating continued
good health.

I could not readily find the 1997-98 Baseball America Top 100
prospects list, so I substituted their Top 10 lists for the various
leagues. The Double-A/Triple-A lists included, obviously, 60 players from
six leagues. These players were traded:

These lists include lots of intriguing players, including players now
establishing themselves like Caruso, Milton, Pavano, and Tatis. Boston,
Cleveland, Houston, Texas, and the Yankees are again on the list.

I think these lists demonstrate that players are dealt as they get
closer to the major leagues. The Top 10 AAA players include some fine baseball
players--certainly comparable to Russ Branyan or Daryle Ward,
players mentioned by Rany in his interview with Robinson.

Unfortunately, I don't have any recent prospect lists from Baseball
America, but I do have Baseball Prospectus 1999, which ranked
only 40 players, plus a few honorable mentions:

Among the honorable mentions listed is 2B/SS Carlos Guillen (HOU to SEA),
who was also in the Randy Johnson deal.

Obviously, it's too early to discuss the quality of these players as major
leaguers--but it is noteworthy that some are from Atlanta, Houston and St.
Louis. Again, more players from the BP list will likely be dealt as the
years pass and as they get closer to the major leagues.

Top starting pitchers like Appier have brought in trade, over this period,
young players like Acevedo, Bergeron, Caruso, Garcia, Graves, Lee,
Newfield, Nitkowski, Pavano, Schmidt and Villone. Aging hitters comparable
to King have returned Drews, Haynes, Ochoa, Relaford and Silva. Since Jeff
Montgomery may also be dealt, it should be pointed out that comparable
relievers have brought back
Jose Cruz, Nevin, Rodriguez, and Varitek. Jeff Shaw yielded Konerko, but
Montgomery is probably not as highly valued as Shaw. Also, both Timlin and
Roberto Hernandez were packaged with other players to return either higher
quality or additional prospects.

Before closing, it is perhaps also worth noting that many other top
prospects that could have been included in the above lists were exposed in the
expansion drafts (Carl Everett, Karim Garcia, Marty Janzen,
Brooks Kieschnick, Robert Smith, Jeff Suppan,
Bubba Trammell, and Terrell Wade) or were traded
within a year or so of coming up to the majors (some top ones I listed in the
introduction, plus Roger Cedeno, Benji Gil, Wilton Guerrero,
Orlando Miller, Jay Powell, and Edgar Renteria). Some were
even waived or allowed to leave as free agents (Brian Barber, Julio
Santana and Marc Valdes). These transactions indicate further
willingness to part with young players, although at least in Barber's case,
serious injuries can be used as a reasonable excuse. Again, some talented
players from Atlanta, Boston, Houston, and Texas are in these list.

Based on the evidence presented here, a GM should hold out for top
prospects. They have been made available, even from the top teams. If
somehow Baltimore, LA, San Diego and Seattle can be induced to bid for
Royals players on the trade block, the bounty obtained in the transactions
might be even greater.