Mister Tee wrote:Apparently, the Broadcasters aren't as sold on Close as Magilla and Reza are. Giving, in addition, Colman Comedy Actress means they can claim to have predicted the Oscar winner no matter who wins.

It seems to me that half of them are sold on Close and the other half are still going gaga over Gaga. I don't think they're all in a conspiracy to split the vote to hedge their bets.

On the other hand, it's interesting that they would give Christian Bale two awards, but not Olivia Colman. To me, that suggests they're pretty much over her.

Mister Tee wrote:Apparently, the Broadcasters aren't as sold on Close as Magilla and Reza are. Giving, in addition, Colman Comedy Actress means they can claim to have predicted the Oscar winner no matter who wins.

It seems to me that half of them are sold on Close and the other half are still going gaga over Gaga. I don't think they're all in a conspiracy to split the vote to hedge their bets.

On the other hand, it's interesting that they would give Christian Bale two awards, but not Olivia Colman. To me, that suggests they're pretty much over her.

“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

Apparently, the Broadcasters aren't as sold on Close as Magilla and Reza are. Giving, in addition, Colman Comedy Actress means they can claim to have predicted the Oscar winner no matter who wins.

Bale was the big shocker. Based on the first two legs of the TV track, supposed front-runner Bradley Cooper is in deep trouble. Thus, I'm heavily rooting for him to win SAG, and make this a full-on free-for-all.

Regina King, we know, can't win anything else between here and February 24th. But Mahershala Ali could wrap things up with a SAG win.

I'm still extremely dubious about a Roma best picture win, but this sure doesn't hurt.

A brief thought about this group's awards/predictions, which will be announced tonight:

As you know, I couldn't hold this group in any lower esteem, but tonight will demonstrate just how deep their level of whore-dom goes. Their voting all took place this week, post-Globes. My deep suspicion last year was that, in seeking to solidify rather than impact the ultimate Oscar win, they might have changed some of their preferences to match the Globes (i.e., prior to the Globes, they might have followed the critics' dominant winners, Dafoe and Metcalf, but in the wake of the Globes, they simply copy-catted Rockwell and Janney). It was possible to disagree with that thesis -- to think that Rockwell, especially, was a more Oscar-predictory choice than the too-indie Dafoe.

OK, but, this year, I think it'll be a tougher argument to make. Up till last Sunday night, I think it's safe to assume they, like most everyone, viewed Bradley Cooper as the runaway choice for lead actor, meaning the'd have voted for him. They'd possibly have gone for Gaga, as well, though that's not as clear (they might have wanted to start a Close campaign themselves). Now, though, if they go for Close and especially Malek, it'll be clear they're totally in the business of not merely attempting to predict the Oscars, but to do everything they can to set the agenda, regardless of what that agenda is.

As for the supporting awards: I think it's likely the Globe choices would have been their choices even if arrived at blindly. Green Book is the sort of movie this bland-taste crew would swoon over, and, as I argued some weeks ago, Richard E. Grant's critical run was not quite dominant enough to offset his film's commercial fizzle. (I'd be delighted to be wrong.) And Regina King is simply a overwhelming enough critics' choice that they'll go with her despite any doubts. (Her problems arise further down-field, with the two TV awards for which she's not eligible.)

The one place this group's choice is up in the air is best picture. A Star is Born seems exactly the sort of movie for which they'd go hog-wild. But they've often shown a tendency to echo major critical sweeps, a category into which Roma clearly falls. They've chosen critics' favorites that didn't seem to be Oscar likelies that have gone on to win (No Country for Old Men, The Hurt Locker), some that didn't make it (Sideways, The Social Network, Boyhood), and a few that seemed like they'd make it but fell short at the finish (Brokeback Mountain, La La Land). The point is, they rarely stray from the critics' consensus. In years where there is no critics' consensus, they'll go their own way (and, not infrequently, end up pointing to the Oscar choice: Slumdog Millionaire, Argo, The Shape of Water). But this isn't that kind of year. So, despite it being a real taste-stretch for them, it wouldn't surprise me to see them name Roma best picture.

Big Magilla wrote:The same year as Driving Miss Daisy, the Globes gave Best Actress - Drama to Michelle Pfeiffer for The Fabulous Baker Boys, a dramatic film centered around a night club act in which Pfeiffer's best moments are singing, most memorably "Making Whoopee" while slinked across the piano.

Pfeiffer and Driving Miss Daisy's Jessica Tandy were the year's standout best actresses. You had to know the HFPA was going to find a way to honor them both by deciding to place one or the other in the comedy category. By moving Daisy they also got to honor Morgan Freeman and the film itself. Left to compete in the drama category we could be looking at comedy wins for When Harry Met Sally and Billy Crystal as Best Actor.

I would have been fine with that, though I prefer Freeman over Crystal. And probably Meg Ryan for Best Actress which I would have been fine with too.

I really should do a weekend screening of Driving Miss Daisy, Baker Boys & When Harry Met Sally. Would be interesting to see how they all hold up nearly 30 years later.

“Those Koreans. They’re so suspicious, you know, ever since Hiroshima.” Constance Langdon (Jessica Lange) from American Horror Story: Season One

The same year as Driving Miss Daisy, the Globes gave Best Actress - Drama to Michelle Pfeiffer for The Fabulous Baker Boys, a dramatic film centered around a night club act in which Pfeiffer's best moments are singing, most memorably "Making Whoopee" while slinked across the piano.

Pfeiffer and Driving Miss Daisy's Jessica Tandy were the year's standout best actresses. You had to know the HFPA was going to find a way to honor them both by deciding to place one or the other in the comedy category. By moving Daisy they also got to honor Morgan Freeman and the film itself. Left to compete in the drama category we could be looking at comedy wins for When Harry Met Sally and Billy Crystal as Best Actor.

“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

flipp525 wrote:Bohemian Rhapsody is not a comedy or a musical. It’s a dramatic biopic that features (pre-recorded) music from Queen. I agree with MaxWilder that it was correctly classified in the drama category for the Golden Globes. And Rami Malek absolutely deserves an Oscar nomination for it. I think him placing here bodes well for his chances.

I haven't seen BR yet, but I was counting on Malek being at least as funny as Angela Bassett was in What's Love Got to Do with It. She was a blast and won a comedy/musical Globe!

flipp525 wrote:Bohemian Rhapsody is not a comedy or a musical. It’s a dramatic biopic that features (pre-recorded) music from Queen. I agree with MaxWilder that it was correctly classified in the drama category for the Golden Globes. And Rami Malek absolutely deserves an Oscar nomination for it. I think him placing here bodes well for his chances.

I’m curious where those complaining about this would have placed something like Jessica Lange’s performance in Sweet Dreams, an actress lip-syncing to already-recorded Patsy Cline music.

The Globes would have placed Lange fraudulently in Comedy/Musical. A quick look at winners alone in the Best Actress Comedy/Musical from the mid seventies to date shows a number of 'fraud' winners in this category. The previously mentioned Streisand, Midler (The Rose), Spacek (Coal Miner's Daughter), Witherspoon (Walk the Line) & Cotillard (La Vie en Rose). All those films were clearly dramas not musical's IMO, including Sweet Dreams.

Comedies are a bit more problematic as it is about individual perception as some films have a foot in both categories.

“Those Koreans. They’re so suspicious, you know, ever since Hiroshima.” Constance Langdon (Jessica Lange) from American Horror Story: Season One