tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post5791812559051916141..comments2018-02-21T17:10:13.232-08:00Comments on A Path to Forever Financial Freedom (3Fs): Recent Action - ComfortdelgroBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09041255778427742477noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post-68802498189325489932017-05-16T07:42:36.911-07:002017-05-16T07:42:36.911-07:00Hi B, will you be doing a post on their Q1 results...Hi B, will you be doing a post on their Q1 results? Their price has dropped quite a lot these 2 days.LaZy CaThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07641824090843274706noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post-11576784943391478562017-05-16T07:41:32.266-07:002017-05-16T07:41:32.266-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.LaZy CaThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07641824090843274706noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post-9255323640926815862017-02-20T05:54:13.177-08:002017-02-20T05:54:13.177-08:00Hi Thinknotleft
Thanks for clarifying.
Understan...Hi Thinknotleft<br /><br />Thanks for clarifying.<br /><br />Understand your point now about not comparing them totally head to head. Actually its quite hard because each business is uniquely different but I think we&#39;ll take the closest we can get regionally.Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09041255778427742477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post-38675031370767484302017-02-19T18:33:27.533-08:002017-02-19T18:33:27.533-08:00Hi B, I am not saying that MTR deserve to trade at...Hi B, I am not saying that MTR deserve to trade at high valuation. I am saying that its land holdings may contribute to its high PER of 18.4 (using aastock). Hence, MTR cannot be used to compare directly with CDG which does not own much land.ThinkNotLefthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post-25005963380480551232017-02-19T16:42:28.832-08:002017-02-19T16:42:28.832-08:00Hi Thinknotleft
Thanks for your comment.
And why...Hi Thinknotleft<br /><br />Thanks for your comment.<br /><br />And why do you think MTR deserves their high valuation in that case? The last time I compare across HK developers, they are all trading at steep discount, shouldnt it be the same case too for MTR? Could you elaborate your thoughts and if possible provide with some numbers please, thanks.Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09041255778427742477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post-74814998881014477032017-02-19T16:37:45.809-08:002017-02-19T16:37:45.809-08:00Hi, I will wait for CDG price to drop further. As ...Hi, I will wait for CDG price to drop further. As you posted, CDG is not cheap now. <br /><br />If not wrong, HK MTR owns land tt it can sell. Hence, MTR cannot be used to compare against CDG<br />ThinkNotLefthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post-31486137848747575062017-02-19T15:58:00.052-08:002017-02-19T15:58:00.052-08:00Hi SR
Indeed, i dont think they are that badly af...Hi SR<br /><br />Indeed, i dont think they are that badly affected as the news mainstream media makes it out to be. There will be more regulations coming out to uber and grab which will not make them easy to roll over.Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09041255778427742477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post-91961331684772615702017-02-19T15:56:56.460-08:002017-02-19T15:56:56.460-08:00Hi MIM
Good point there. Cdg has been trading rat...Hi MIM<br /><br />Good point there. Cdg has been trading rather cheap valuation before the announcement for the model 3 years ago and suddenly they have been re rates to go a lot more expensive. I think if the model proves to be successful they dont deserve to go back to the past valuations even as we are seeing different problems posed to their other divisions.Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09041255778427742477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post-1048980431902182502017-02-19T15:55:20.168-08:002017-02-19T15:55:20.168-08:00Hi sgdividends
Thanks for your valuable input.
I...Hi sgdividends<br /><br />Thanks for your valuable input.<br /><br />I recall having studied the bus contracting model which cdg applied to their bus in UK and AU and it has been an immense success. I think they want to replicate the same model they have experience it over here, but i agree they are not without disadvantages.Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09041255778427742477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post-59763261953595568912017-02-19T15:53:55.602-08:002017-02-19T15:53:55.602-08:00Thanks, I noticed there were still quite heavy sel...Thanks, I noticed there were still quite heavy selling pressure as well and its pretty baffling given their decent results and not so negative outlook.Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09041255778427742477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post-32631279805880936032017-02-19T15:53:03.535-08:002017-02-19T15:53:03.535-08:00Hi WK
Thanks for your insightful comment and inpu...Hi WK<br /><br />Thanks for your insightful comment and input.<br /><br />Ive missed the valuation of smrt when it was taken over and you are right it appears in the upper range of the 22x valuation. Similarly if I compare across regional BTS of Thailand and MTR of HK also trades in the 25x range. It seems that it made cdg valuation looks cheaper as compared to the rest and thats right. Thanks for pointing that out.Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09041255778427742477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post-47837479285330482002017-02-19T04:08:55.912-08:002017-02-19T04:08:55.912-08:00ComfortDelGro has been pretty resilient despite th...ComfortDelGro has been pretty resilient despite threats from Grab and Uber.Sweet Retirementhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10890997565289722526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post-75204293264683982922017-02-18T05:15:06.486-08:002017-02-18T05:15:06.486-08:00Despite the influx of private hire cars, Comfortde...Despite the influx of private hire cars, Comfortdelgro&#39;s results has nearly always exceed my expectations. Their dividends is always increasingly too. <br /><br />vested in this too.<br />having said that there were trading at 1.7-1.9 (just before the news that govt will take over the infrastructure) and reached a high of 3.2 then. I wonder how it will fare in the coming years. I have absolutely no idea. My Investment Machinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18047290726034007540noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post-58701984149782360312017-02-18T01:03:39.877-08:002017-02-18T01:03:39.877-08:00Thanks for sharing again..
Regarding the bus cont...Thanks for sharing again..<br /><br />Regarding the bus contracting model and it being a catalyst,cant really pinpoint why it is a catalyst actually after reading some research reports.<br /><br />Disadvantage :more competition as lower barrier, more controlled revenue as customer is the government.<br /><br />Advantage : less capex.<br /><br />Whether its good or bad depends on how much revenue the government is paying versus the savings from capex vs the increase in competition so its quite unclear.<br /><br />The manpower situation and the resulting increase in wages as such is also a concern. SBS has stated that they are working with the SAF in regards to attracting their drivers and technicians after their NS.<br /><br />I think the only winners are the customers as the KPI for the bus companies are based on performance metrics such as interarrivials and number of breakdowns.<br /><br />For bus companies, not very clear<br /><br />sgdividendshttp://sgdividends.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post-14583414658366785842017-02-17T22:06:48.147-08:002017-02-17T22:06:48.147-08:00I think the technical outlook has a bit more downs...I think the technical outlook has a bit more downside with short term equilibrium at around 2.33. The momentum indicators remained in the negative bottom half on selling pressure. Market Observerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05700638484439508457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-399650973723967454.post-28601951861377181762017-02-17T10:05:24.953-08:002017-02-17T10:05:24.953-08:00Hi B,
Margins for rail has been weak (negative at...Hi B,<br /><br />Margins for rail has been weak (negative at times) for the past few years. DTL, which is operating under NRFF, is supposed to give the operator an EBIT of about 5%. So, I would guess it&#39;s the NEL which revenue growth has not been able to keep up with the cost increase?<br /><br />Their taxi segment has been resilient up till now, showing stable margins despite all the gloomy news of PHV cannibalizing CDG&#39;s market share though I do agree with your thoughts that the taxi business is on a decline.<br /><br />Valuation wise, given that SMRT was bought over at 22x P/E and CDG&#39;s subsidiary SBS is trading at 23x P/E, is 17x PER really too high for CDG, a diversified transport company with overseas business and a robust balance sheet with large cash pile for potential earnings accretive M&amp;A?<br /><br />Would like to hear your thoughts. Thanks.<br /><br />WKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com