Bracketology: Assessing NCAA Tourney chances of state teams

The state of Indiana still has a glimmer of hope for having an NCAA Tournament team after a mostly bad week.

Indiana lost a close game at Nebraska on Thursday, but took a step toward saving its season with an impressive win over Michigan at home on Sunday. The Hoosiers are 4-5 in conference, tied with Wisconsin, Ohio State and Minnesota for fifth. It's realistic to think IU can get the fourth seed in the Big Ten Tourney.

Purdue lost at Michigan on Thursday and Penn State on Sunday, and have lost four in a row, essentially ending the chance for an at-large bid. The Boilermakers have an RPI around 110, and all of their remaining regular-season games are against teams in the RPI top 100.

Notre Dame lost to Virginia on Tuesday, then squeaked by a bad Boston College team Saturday in overtime. They are out of the RPI top 100 and have a 3-6 conference record. With games this week at Syracuse and home against North Carolina, chances for an at-large bid seem bleak. If they can win those games, they are right back in the conversation for a bid.

Butler won its only game of the week against Seton Hall, and its RPI is in the top 100. But with two tough road games this week, at Marquette and Georgetown, the Bulldogs find themselves in the same situation as Notre Dame.

Indiana State had a devastating loss at Southern Illinois on Wednesday in a game that was never really close. Southern Illinois is outside the RPI top 200, so this one really hurts the Sycamores' chances for an at-large bid. They did bounce back on Saturday to defeat Northern Illinois, so they remain on the bubble. A win in Wednesday's game at home against Wichita St. would go a long way toward a bid.

IPFW won both of its games this week and is alone in first in the Summit League, ahead of North Dakota State, with a 6-1 record. I have the Mastodons as a No. 14 seed in the South with a first round game against Creighton in San Antonio.

Valparaiso won at home against Wisconsin-Green Bay and at Illinois-Chicago, and is tied for second in the Horizon League. Green Bay is still the team to beat in this conference.

Duke vs. Syracuse lived up to the hype on Saturday in a game that will go down as a classic. Syracuse won in overtime, but Duke made a three pointer at the buzzer to send it there. The rematch is in three weeks at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Arizona had its first loss Saturday night at California, leaving two undefeated teams — Wichita St. and Syracuse. It was the first time since 1975-76 that three teams entered February undefeated. Anyone remember who won the title that year? (Indiana.)

The Big Ten is looking as if it will come down to Michigan and Michigan State. Iowa could play the spoiler for the regular season title, but everyone else will be fighting for conference tournament seeds. Surprisingly, Northwestern is alone in fourth place, with early-season darlings Wisconsin and Ohio State tied for fifth.

Wisconsin and Ohio State started the season 31-0; they have gone 3-10 since.

Creighton is quietly having a very nice first season in the Big East. The Bluejays are 18-3 overall and 8-1 in conference, including a 28-point win at Villanova. If they keep winning, they will be in the discussion for a No. 1 seed.

The Pac-12 is having a resurgence this season after a few down years. I have seven Pac-12 teams in my bracket.

San Diego State is another team that might merit consideration for a No. 1 seed. They have only one loss, at home to Arizona by single digits, and no other blemishes. They also have nice wins at Kansas and over Creighton.

Texas handed Kansas its first conference loss on Saturday, and it wasn't close. The Big 12 is still Kansas' to lose.

Virginia continues to impress, hitting a 3 to win at Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Cavaliers are alone in second place in the ACC at 8-1.

To see daily updates, visit www.bracketwag.com, and follow me on Twitter and Facebook. Email me questions at shelby@bracketwag.com.

Shelby Mast is the author of IndyStar Bracket Talk. Mast has published his bracket predictions for the past eight years and routinely is more accurate than other national bracketologists. Mast ranks as the third most accurate bracketologist with seven or more years experience doing this. Last year, he correctly picked 67 of the 68 teams in the tournament and 63 were seeded correctly or within one line of their actual seed.