A hostage crisis confronts Estrada

Guerrillas have provided new reasons to worry about the president’s competence

AN EXPLOSION of violence in the southern Philippine region of Mindanao is proving a severe test of President Joseph Estrada's impatient approach to dealing with Muslim separatist rebels. Troops opened fire this week on gunmen holding two groups of hostages, including children and foreigners, calling into question his government's ability to handle such delicate incidents.

In the first, on the island of Basilan, Muslim guerrillas of the small but vicious Abu Sayyaf group were holding at least 27 Filipinos, mostly schoolchildren, whom they had kidnapped. The government had tried to negotiate and the kidnappers had made a number of demands, including the release of some Muslims imprisoned in the United States for their part in plots to blow up buildings in New York. When most of these demands had been rejected, Abu Sayyaf responded by saying that it had beheaded two of its captives, both men.

Without waiting for confirmation of the killings, the armed forces were ordered to rescue the hostages. After bombarding Abu Sayyaf's main base for several days, using artillery and helicopter gunships, the army eventually rescued 15. Four were killed in the fighting; others are missing.

The heavy-handed action increased concern for a second group of captives. These are the 21 people abducted by Filipino gunmen from a diving resort in the Malaysian state of Sabah. They include German, Finnish, French, Lebanese and South African tourists, along with resort workers from Malaysia and the Philippines. They were taken by boat across the Sulu Sea to the Philippine island of Jolo, not far from Basilan. The kidnappers are Muslims and some say they are members of Abu Sayyaf. Several government officials, however, believe they are simply criminals with no political motives.

The kidnapped await their fateAP

The government has also tried to engage these kidnappers in negotiations, but before they could begin in earnest the kidnappers exchanged fire with troops who had surrounded their hideout. The kidnappers said two of the hostages had died, although officials were sceptical. On May 4th, the kidnappers moved their captives elsewhere on Jolo.

Adding to Mr Estrada's problems was an upsurge in fighting between government troops and guerrillas of the main Muslim separatist movement in Mindanao, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). A ceasefire was supposed to be in place while peace talks were going on. But when government troops stopped some guerrillas from exacting tolls on traffic near their main base, the MILF reacted by suspending the peace talks and went on the counterattack. A series of bomb blasts in towns and cities elsewhere in Mindanao has been blamed by military officials on the MILF. On May 3rd, rebels were reported to have grabbed about 100 hostages from vehicles near Cotabato, but many escaped. Several people were also killed in attacks on the southern Mindanao city of General Santos.

In Manila, Mr Estrada has tried to maintain his reputation for standing no nonsense from either rebels or common criminals. The distinction is blurred, since rebels often use their weapons for profit rather than political gain. Mr Estrada said the safety of both groups of hostages was paramount. But he also echoed the tough guys that he used to portray during his previous career as a film actor when he said that Abu Sayyaf would be “pulverised into ashes”.

That may not be so easy. The president's approach will face its hardest test in the Jolo kidnapping, because several foreign governments are anxiously scrutinising every action. Some of the countries whose citizens are involved have cautioned against doing anything that might endanger the lives of the captives. Worries about what the Philippine government will do about the Jolo hostage-taking have been exacerbated by the outbreak of shooting around the kidnappers' hideout and the rescue operation on Basilan.

Most concerned is Malaysia, which is worried not only about the safety of the ten Malaysians the group is holding, but also of losing its reputation as a safe place for tourists. If that happens, it will be only because of the proximity of the Malaysian state of Sabah to the most lawless region in the Philippines. If Mr Estrada's government fails to win the release of the remainder of the hostages, or if some die in attempts to secure their freedom, the reputation for incompetence that his administration has earned will only grow worse. So will the Philippines' already prickly relations with Malaysia.