This is not a Downing Street memo, it was not written by any of the Prime Minister's staff and it most certainly does not reflect his views. Downing Street sources also insisted the memo had not been prepared by any of Mr Blair's special advisers or other Labour Party-funded staff in his personal office

No. 10 secret memo: We are seen as a shambles
Exclusive by SIMON WALTERS

Labour has no chance of winning the next Election because voters think the Government is a shambles - and there is little Gordon Brown can do to stop David Cameron becoming Prime Minister.

That is the devastating verdict of a secret Downing Street memo drawn up for Tony Blair by his senior advisers and obtained by The Mail on Sunday.

The confidential document states:

- Labour's standing is so low that the party's only hope of recovering may be to abandon Mr Brown and 'move to a new generation' by picking a much younger new leader - though it warns of the perils of being 'disloyal' to the 'greatly respected' Chancellor.

- The public believes the party is riven by 'internal conflicts' and shows a 'lack of grip and competence on key issues' such as Iraq, the NHS and immigration.

- People who voted Labour at the last Election 'are moving across' to the Conservatives and Labour is floundering 'on every major issue'.

- Mr Blair faces a 's*** or bust' decision on how to stop the rot.

The leak came as a vicious new war of words flared between the rival Blair and Brown camps over where blame for the cash-for-peerages scandal lies.

Mr Brown angrily accused Mr Blair's chief fundraiser Lord Levy of trying to 'smear' him over claims the Chancellor did not tell the truth about nominating two of his cronies for peerages.

And Mr Blair's allies responded by claiming the Prime Minister believed Mr Brown had 'fanned the flames' of the row over party funding to bring down his Downing Street neighbour. "It is outrageous for Brown to play the innocent,' said one. "No one demanded more money than him - and he knew where it was coming from."

The Mail on Sunday has also learned that Mr Blair has held secret talks with his chief of staff Jonathan Powell, at which they agreed that the Prime Minister's final six months in office must create a 'leadership legacy' which sets him apart from Mr Brown.

The Prime Minister has privately mocked Mr Brown's prospects as Prime Minister, saying: "The trouble with many of Gordon's ideas is that they butter no parsnips."

The memo, written in the past few weeks, is the most damaging Government leak in years.

It was written by one of the Prime Minister's closest advisers and seen by a handful of senior figures, including Mr Blair.

It makes a nonsense of public claims by Labour that Mr Blair is planning a smooth transition to Mr Brown next June or July as part of a carefully co-ordinated strategy to secure a fourth successive Election victory.

It also flatly contradicts Mr Blair's public statements dismissing Mr Cameron as a lightweight with no chance of winning power.

In private, Mr Blair's inner circle is in a blind panic over the march of Mr Cameron's Conservatives, and they don't think Mr Brown is any match for him.

The memo freely acknowledges Tory gains in the polls since Mr Cameron replaced Michael Howard, with big leads on tax, crime and immigration. "Labour no longer has a measurable lead on any major issue,' it states.

And it confirms Opposition claims that the Government has failed to live up to its promises and that it is haemorrhaging support as a result of the Iraq War.

"The Government is seen as a shambles. It is not just Labour internal conflicts but a lack of grip and competence on key issues. Iraq is a potent and raw issue, so is the NHS, immigration and crime. We have lost control of the big issues and are not delivering,' the memo states.

Nor is the trend likely to change. "This view is deeply held and entering the bones of the electorate. The public are clearly preparing to shift to the Conservatives if they prove themselves credible and likable."

It would be wrong to assume this is some kind of mid-term setback. It is not. It is a long-term cyclical shift towards an increasingly acceptable Opposition. People who voted Labour in 2005 are on their way across."

Mr Blair's advisers believe Mr Brown's position as Labour heir apparent is making things worse. "Compounding this is an erosion in Gordon Brown's position against David Cameron," the memo says.

"We can rally round...or we can go for total renewal, moving to a new generation, effectively forming a new government while still in power."

It does not name the potential alternative successors but it is no secret that Mr Blair once hoped Environment Secretary David Miliband would mount a challenge against Mr Brown.

Similarly, despite being slightly older than Mr Brown, Education Secretary Alan Johnson, a relative Cabinet newcomer, was also seen as a way of providing a 'break with the past'.

But the memo warns this tactic could backfire: "Trying to completely renew in office may look as if we are trying to cheat time. And worse - that we are disavowing our record in government.

"Gordon Brown is part of our record. If we disown him, we run the risk of disowning our record. The public will recoil from evidence of disloyalty towards Gordon.

"Whatever people think of him as a [potential] Prime Minister, they still greatly respect him as a Chancellor."

But it shows Mr Blair has serious doubts about allowing Mr Brown to take over without a leadership contest.

The public are 'not stupid', says the memo. "They will not forgive us if we foist an unpopular leader on them without a proper democratic process. They just won't accept it."

It finishes on a note of desperation. "We have to focus. We can't sort out everything. The NHS is probably the best place to start. If we can make sense of one or two areas of policy the rest might fall into place. This is really s*** or bust time."

Our Armed Forces a overstretched, underfunded and poorly equipped. Servicemen and women are dying in an illegal war in Iraq, while their loved ones stay in second-rate accomodation back home.

Our legal system is a pathetic joke. The judges are senile and the lawyers/politicians are whores. Meanwhile, the Poor Bloody Copper is outnumbered and all too often out-gunned by the bad guys, his hands tied by kilometeres of red tape. Our prisons are so ovrcrowded scum are being released just to free up spaces. The jails are holiday camps where subhumans enjoy better conditions than law-abiding taxpayers.

The NHS is on it's collective knees, so badly run we have the obscene situation that people are being cured of their initial injury or illness - then dying because of poor hygine.

We have terrorists blowing up civilians in the middle of London and ex-spooks living under our protection assassinated by operatives of a forgien intelligence agency, who know they can opperate with immunity because Britain is too weak to respond.

We have lost all control over our borders, and we are regarded as the Promised Land by anyone who seeks to live of the genorosity of the British Taxpayer.

Our Armed Forces a overstretched, underfunded and poorly equipped. Servicemen and women are dying in an illegal war in Iraq, while their loved ones stay in second-rate accomodation back home.

Our legal system is a pathetic joke. The judges are senile and the lawyers/politicians are whores. Meanwhile, the Poor Bloody Copper is outnumbered and all too often out-gunned by the bad guys, his hands tied by kilometeres of red tape. Our prisons are so ovrcrowded scum are being released just to free up spaces. The jails are holiday camps where subhumans enjoy better conditions than law-abiding taxpayers.

The NHS is on it's collective knees, so badly run we have the obscene situation that people are being cured of their initial injury or illness - then dying because of poor hygine.

We have terrorists blowing up civilians in the middle of London and ex-spooks living under our protection assassinated by operatives of a forgien intelligence agency, who know they can opperate with immunity because Britain is too weak to respond.

We have lost all control over our borders, and we are regarded as the Promised Land by anyone who seeks to live of the genorosity of the British Taxpayer.

SHambels? That does'nt even come close to discribing it.

Click to expand...

and add in that small businesses are being forced out of existance by Mr Brown so that only the big corporations survive which he can then Nationalise in his overall plan to bring about his "socialist utopia"

Our Armed Forces a overstretched, underfunded and poorly equipped. Servicemen and women are dying in an illegal war in Iraq, while their loved ones stay in second-rate accomodation back home.

Our legal system is a pathetic joke. The judges are senile and the lawyers/politicians are whores. Meanwhile, the Poor Bloody Copper is outnumbered and all too often out-gunned by the bad guys, his hands tied by kilometeres of red tape. Our prisons are so ovrcrowded scum are being released just to free up spaces. The jails are holiday camps where subhumans enjoy better conditions than law-abiding taxpayers.

The NHS is on it's collective knees, so badly run we have the obscene situation that people are being cured of their initial injury or illness - then dying because of poor hygine.

We have terrorists blowing up civilians in the middle of London and ex-spooks living under our protection assassinated by operatives of a forgien intelligence agency, who know they can opperate with immunity because Britain is too weak to respond.

We have lost all control over our borders, and we are regarded as the Promised Land by anyone who seeks to live of the genorosity of the British Taxpayer.

We have the largest underclass as a caonsequence of labour throwing money at them. What's their incentive to work? There is none, it's much easier for them to bang out a load of kids (who will more than likely be like them) rent a giant telly and sit at home watching jeremy kyle (if they can get up in time that is).

When B liar banged on about lifting children out of poverty it was all about chucking money at chavs in order to be seen to do something, and possibly secure their votes. If their not unemployed their on incapacity. My sister in law (who along with my useless oxygen thief brother, whos on the dole) is on incapacity and she's only 23 FFS!

It seems to me that the more you contribute to the UK the less you get and the worse you are treated.

And today everyone woke up and saw what a shambles it is. Without meaning to sound too cynical. Too many officials too busy trying to "get one over" on their opposition, everone has forgotten that they are actually all on the same side. In the meantime, who has maintained the economy and welfare of the individuals in the country?

When I married a German girl from Osnabruck in the late 80s and assumed responsibility for her daughter by a previous marriage who, as a youngster had no English, we moved together to Catterick on Posting.

The youngster did well with a language tutor at school, she was fluent in English in six months and did very well academically.

Some postings later and just prior to the breakdown of the marriage, on my retirement from the Army, my stepdaughter left school with good 'A' levels in Maths, English, Physics, and Chemistry which would have guaranteed her a place at a good English University.

She left to return to stay with her father in Osnabruck and to find work.

When she walked into the Arbeitsamdt and produced her 'A' Level certificates, the German Officials derided them as being totally worthless in Germany.

She was told that English 'A' Level results, no matter how good the English clamed they were, did not even equate to the minimum academic standard required of a German school leaver. She was qualified to work as little more than a Putsfrau (a cleaning lady)

She had to return to school in Germany to obtain academic qualifications required of something more than the most menial of jobs.

This is one of the reasons I will never ever trust what I am told about British academic standards by the Department of Education, least of all that they have risen 'year on year'!

This country is a shambles at every level of every department of state. Education, Home Office, Department of Health etc etc. We do not need to discover what our neighbours have already known for years!

When she walked into the Arbeitsamdt and produced her 'A' Level certificates, the German Officials derided them as being totally worthless in Germany.
[/quote]

Setting aside the arrogance, what an awful way to disillusion a young girl who clearly deserved much better than that. I hope she managed to overcome those difficulties and is now back on an even keel.

This is one of the reasons I will never ever trust what I am told about British academic standards by the Department of Education, least of all that they have risen 'year on year'!

Click to expand...

And after ten years of rising educational standards, what do we have? I believe one in six of the population are now classed as illiterate. I work with people who have honours degrees and still have trouble with basic English and Maths.

At the other end of the scale you see school leavers who can't even speak coherently. The Jamaican accented patois that currently passes for English is incomprehensible.

Young people today - I don't know - when I was their age etc, etc, etc

What happened toyour step daughter was a disgrace. Unfortunately typical of the lazy Beamten who populate German officialdom. They should know that there is a European Academic Equivalence matrix, compiled by the EU ministry for education and training, which compares academic qualifications and provides local equivalence. In Germany 3 UK 'A' levels equates to an Abitur in a german school. She should speak to the local amt again and point them in the right direction.

What happened toyour step daughter was a disgrace. Unfortunately typical of the lazy Beamten who populate German officialdom. They should know that there is a European Academic Equivalence matrix, compiled by the EU ministry for education and training, which compares academic qualifications and provides local equivalence. In Germany 3 UK 'A' levels equates to an Abitur in a german school. She should speak to the local amt again and point them in the right direction.

Click to expand...

I am most grateful for your observations greenbaggyskin and I wish that I had been made aware of them before I lost contact with my stepdaughter some seven years ago and as a conseqence I have no idea whether or not she subsequently became aware of the substance of what you impart.

It would, however seem from your observations that no one country has a monopoly on official incompetence although I was always under the impression that officioldom in Germany was ruthlessly efficient.