Saturday, October 22, 2016

The key economic reports this week are the advance estimate of Q3 GDP and September New Home Sales.

Also the Case-Shiller House Price Index for August will be released.

For manufacturing, the October Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.

----- Monday, Oct 24th -----

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September. This is a composite index of other data.

----- Tuesday, Oct 25th -----

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for August 2016. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.5% month-to-month increase for this index.

9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for August. Although this is the August report, it is really a 3 month average of June, July and August prices.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the July 2016 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 5.1% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for August. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 5.2% year-over-year in August.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the August sales rate.

The consensus is for an decrease in sales to 600 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in September from 609 thousand in August.

----- Thursday, Oct 27th -----

8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 255 thousand initial claims, down from 260 thousand the previous week. Note: I expect some further impact on claims due to Hurricane Matthew.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in durable goods orders.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for September. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.

10:00 AM: the Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.