Sunday, October 04, 2009

Obviously my early September Oscar predictions went the way of vinyl and VHS once Toronto and Venice and the flurry of shifting distribution fates hit. This happens at the end of September and in early October every year but it's always disorienting... at least for me. Maybe you're less driven mad by it than I. 'You mean this brand new movie that got incredible raves and dream buzz is going to wait 10 more months for release and this other movie that everyone had given up on and isn't all that excited about is now opening in two weeks. okaaayyyy, crazy distributor people. You do what you gotta do.'

Clooney and Day-Lewis discuss Oscar warm-up rituals

In Best Actor, I'm still holding on to my gamble that Oscar voters don't want to get mushy or frisky with Daniel Day-Lewis in Nine (he never gets nominated for his "soft" movies) but it's starting to feel like a lose-the-house bet with so little in the way of Best Actor heavyweights. Damn it! I really thought I was going to look brilliant when Oscar nomination rolled around and they skipped DDL. But maybe not. Oopsie. Anyway, could Colin Firth in A Single Manreally be the frontrunner, now that he's emerged from festival season so super-charged? It was so sudden and so... unexpected. Or maybe it's George Clooney for Up in the Air though a second Oscar in four years seems overly kind.

Over in Best Supporting Actor there's less drama. I hate when you think you've found the lineup as early as October. Something of note needs to happen soon. The only dramatic question is "who could win?" because that does seem like a question with five answers (for now).

We discussed Best Supporting Actresslast week. Since then I'm aware that the talk about putting Marion Cotillard into lead for Nine is gaining momentum. If the studio actually does go through with this once the FYC drum-beating begins I think it a huge mistake. One, the Best Actress category is super competitive this year (wheee!) and Two, even if you give Cotillard a few more songs in Nine it's still a story with one lead, being about a man and his intense relationships to women, plural. They'd be sacrificing one potential nod for another. Doesn't make much sense... unless Cotillard's handlers are greedy/delusional and actually think they can win her two nominations for Nine (lead) and Public Enemies (supporting). And, well, I guess she has beaten considerable odds before.

A friendly pre-season luncheon. Drinks with Lea, Julia and Amelia

Each of these updated acting pages has adjusted text and predictions, though a few things haven't changed. I still insist that Best Actress is only a Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia) vs. Carey Mulligan (An Education) duel... and the other three nominations will be hard fought. More categories to come tomorrow or over the next couple of days depending on how the time flies.

72 comments:

adri
said...

The supporting actress who has completely won me over so far, is Melanie Laurent in "Inglourious Basterds". When she started putting on her make-up, some little core tension dissolved, and I thought, at last, a real film heroine. How long I've been waiting.

And as I mentioned in another thread, I think Bening and Mirren (and maybe even Pfeiffer) may bump Streep in the Best Actress category. But we'll see what happens with their movies.

I think the total mystery comes in the form of Best Director, especially now that there are ten Best Picture nominations, meaning 5 of those pictures' directors won't be nominated. There's also a lot going against some Best Picture favorites' directors. The Hurt Locker and Bright Star were directed by women, which goes against some traditional Academy rules of hating female directors. And a film like Avatar is either going to be known as the film that brought James Cameron back to the Kodak, or the film that was a big mess of CGI and live-action. The only think I'm really sure of with the Director category is Clint Eastwood for Invictus. I mean, the Academy loves him!

I still think Streep won't get to a nomination.. Too light, not especially memorable, in 3 months people will forget her. She's Streep, sure, but there are a lot of other possible nominees giving her a fight for the nod. Its the crodwiest acting award this year, she WILL be overlooked, remember my words..

Nathaniel, I love Kate but I have to say that Angela Lansbury holds the record for youngest to get two nominations.

I understand that Swank in Amelia looks really Oscar material but we haven't seen her yet as opposed to Mirren (well, at least some people have) who's performance was well liked. Although Swank does look good in the trailer.

My predix are going live on Tuesday, but I'll say for now that I'm not convinced about Damon in Invictus, and I think Supporting Actor could easily still surprise. For one thing, don't the It's Complicated guys at least have a shot?

If Precious were to get another Supporting Actress nomination I would put my money on Paula Patton rather than Mariah Carey. Patton not only has a lot more screen time but also she's the one who guides and takes care of Precious and I have a feeling voters would be more entranced by her.

No Clive Owen for The Boys Are Back? He should at least be in the Top 15. And Audrey Tautou should be in the Top 10.

I'm hesitant to call Firth the frontrunner for such a quiet performance (it doesn't have the kind of in-your-face powerhouse scenes the Academy creams over), but at the same time, I think we're do a first-time winner in the category this year ... so who else is there? It's looking like an odd race.

By the way, I would put one "con" in Firth's column: "A Single Man" is a subtly but defiantly queer movie. The Academy members who were unsettled by "Brokeback" could be completely freaked out by this.

Nick: I've been predicting Baldwin for "It's Complicated," if that helps. Then again, I've also been predicting a Best Picture nod for "It's Complicated," so I could be way off the mark.

And you're right not to be convinced about Damon in "Invictus." Of course, I'm not convinced about the entire film -- that script is IFFY -- but we all know special considerations can apply to Eastwood films.

Nathaniel, I think Mulligan doesn't have a con anymore. I mean, I don't think she needs a very strong campaign. We're all talking about her all the time, the critics are bound to love her (the ones who haven't done it already) and Ebert has called her a lock for a nominations. Right now I think Sidibe is her opponent for the win more than Streep.

Gustavo. i unfortunately had to miss the last Precious screening for NYFF. crazy day and I just couldn't make it to the theater. So i will officially be the last person in the "media" to see it. Sigh. Oh me.

Glenn, good point.

adri inglourious basterds is going to be an interesting ride, Oscar wise. It just seems like it could go any which way. or all sorts of ways at once.

gabrieloak whether or not McKay is perfect I think this films long long indecisive history of getting released (not that it's the films fault mind you) tends to put a damper on people even thinking about it.

adelutza people are CRAZY about Up in the Air. We'll see. I still think NINE is iffy in all sorts of ways though it's the movie i'm most anxious to see.

Best Costumes seems to be a category overflowing with great candidates this year. An Education, Bright Star, Cheri, Amelia, Inglourious Basterds, Coco Avant Chanel, Nine, Public Enemies... what visual treats.

Peter Sarsgaard role IS more important, but he's not quite as effective - at the very least, that accent is all over the place. I don't think it's gonna get an acting nod beyond Mulligan, but I really don't get the supporting categories this early.

Given the "weak" acting line-up, do you suppose there's a chance Walz will jump categories and run as lead? He won Cannes. And there isn't much (any?) excitement behind Brad Pitt, Walz's only in-film competition, for a nomination.

I would just like to say how happy I'll be if either Colin Firth or Christopher Plummer win best actor this year, particularly Christopher Plummer. Two amazingly talented and underappreciated actors who have been overlooked for years. It's about time they're acknowledged.

De Niro in Everything's Fine not even in the top 15? I'd say its very possible. Actor looks weak, they haven't nominated him in 20 years, his reviews have been strong and its a remake of a GREAT movie.

I assume the lack of Bening/Watts/Jackson who all have gotten terrific reviews is mainly because of the lack of distribution?

Clive Owen in the Boys Are Back? He's gotten good reviews and its a weak category... seems worth mentioning at least.

DuVall in the Road? Know its short but they've done it before for a veteran and his notices have been outstanding.

Shohreh Aghdashloo deserves at least a mention. A strong campaign could make that happen.

Dusty, but remember Cannes doesn't have Lead/Supporting categories. And Waltz is kinda on the fence in regards to whether he is lead or supporting. Some say one, some say the other, but he is an unknown so he'll go supporting.

You've added A Single Man as possible BP and Colin Firth to Actor - but not Tom Ford as director? It seems to me that AMPAS loves the "we didn't know you could do that!" type noms - and it sounds in this case that Ford made a genuinely great film? (Who knew?)

He has never been shy about self-promotion (see covers of Vanity Fair, etc) and he's very well known in Hollywood (currently dressing Nicole Kidman's hubby, among others) and those things could either be very very helpful or cause something of a backlash I suppose. (he isn't exactly shy about his gayness either, VF cover notwithstanding)

Boy in the Pyjama... i'm confused. There IS a photo of Hilary Swank in my predictions. I'm not sure what you mean.

Anyway... it was my understanding that the studio has confirmed that Helen Mirren is "lead" in The Last Station (but of course these things can change)

as for Streep being a lock and others not. This goes back to my rule that you can't be a lock until the film has opened. Because you are not even eligible for Oscar consideration unless your movie has played for a week in theaters which most of the movies being discussed haven't.

As for A SERIOUS MAN. I stand by my doubts. The Coen Bros have done well with Oscar no question. But they're generally only nominated when their film is a Best Picture player (contrary to popular belief -- the O Brother nomination being the exception to the rule) and I keep hearing that A SERIOUS MAN is less accessible than some previous work. We'll see. I should see it. hate that i've been so busy.

Nat, in the Best Picture predictions, you've transposed the blurbs for "Up" and "The Lovely Bones."

I recently read "Playing the Enemy," the book on which "Invictus" is based...and if the movie is half as good as the book, I could see it getting a BP nom and a nom for Morgan Freeman at least. (Not sure how well Matt Damon can play an Afrikaaner, though.)

For Best Actor, I still think that Joaquin Phoenix deserves a nomination for "Two Lovers." He won't get it, of course...spring opening plus no campaigning assures that. (Nat, did you ever see the movie?)

Styx - yes, totally, Hal Holbrook should've won for Into the Wild. I'm so glad to hear this performance is a stunner. Here's hoping he'll have another shot...

Would be amazing if Plummer and Firth were to join him in Best Actor, even if it was just for the first nom/career recognition factor for the both of them.

Meryl completely and absolutely deserves a nom this year. And I'd say a win for her would be very sweet. Not only is it time for her again, but her previous two wins were for dramas, and Julia Child is one of her very best. (I'd rate it in her top 3 along with those 2 other Oscared turns of hers. And wouldn't it be great that her Oscars align with all of her best work - quite the unusual scenario.) She created one of the most joyous characters in recent memory. Pure joy. You don't see that too often.

And Adri, I love what you wrote about Melanie Laurent. And wholeheartedly agree with you. My favourite supporting actress of the year so far too. Wonderful, vibrant, touching, heartstopping, surprising, enigmatic, subtle work.

Also, while I haven't seen Julianne Moore or Mo'Nique's films yet (two weeks to go, two weeks to go, deep breath...) I do hope Juli smacks Mo down for that golden boy. So what if I'm in a career recognition kind of mood this year! Oscarez-Moore s.v.p!

some happy news for you? in the website incontention, they are not putting Swank for Amelia.....I think.....I've just saw Julie and Julia, I wish they have put Streep in supporting. She is soooo good in the role. So much joy and radiance (poor Amy Adams stuck with Kate Gosselin's character....). It is not deep, but I would not hesitate to give her the award.I actually only think Mulligan and maybe Sibide are locks. What do you think if the lead actress in "the Maid" is pushed hard? Maybe she can sneek in like Cotillard (of course she has the glamour factor)?

I haven't seen Up in the Air.. but I have such a big gripe with George Clooney. If the man does anything of relative prestige (the film, not his performance), then he's automatically nominated. The man can do mediocre work, but somehow has managed to ingratiate himself so far up everyone's you-know-what, that they don't care about how good his performances are. UGH.

I think DDL is almost certain to get a nomination. It's a musical for goodness sake's. And no "Nine" acting predictions at all is a little weird.

marshall1. that surprises me. In Contention has been pushing Amelia hard all year... like so hard I've wondered if they helped produce the film ;) I wonder if Kris finally saw it then and didn't like it?

amir_uk wow... you really think those are Streep's 3 best? Cuz I don't at all. Though obviously the first two were Oscar worthy. I just don't think they're necessarily her two best.

DJ since when do men in musicals get easy nominations? think about it. it's not that common. i know it seems like awards bodies love musicals but it's not really the case in terms of acting (unless you're a woman) or unless you're talking about the Golden Globes

Whoever said Julienne Moore will not be nominated for supporting for A Single Man is out of his/her mind. She will be nominated because she stands out in every scene she's in. And I think Tom Ford will be nominated for director too. Along with the Danish woman who directed An Education and whose name I can't spell.

in my opinion meryl streep's best nominated (or soon to be nominated) performances in order

1. Sophie's Choice2. A Cry in the Dark3. Silkwood4. Julie and Julia5. Out of Africa6. Kramer vs. Kramer7. The Bridges of Madison County8. Adaptation9. The Devil Wears Prada10. The French Lietenant's Woman11. The Deer Hunter12. Ironweed13. Postcards From the Edge14. One True Thing15. Music of the Heart16. Doubt

Well, excellent predictions, I agree with many of your choices, just in the Best Actor, Best Director and Best Picture I have some differences.

- I still can't give in to the fact that Up in the Air will be a major player this awards season

- I still can't believe the Coen Bros' A Serious Man isn't getting more traction

- I still can't believe Daniel Day-Lewis will get shifted in such an underachieving year for leading men. And I bet that if they have to choose between Holbrook or Day-Lewis, the latter will win just because he looks so much better in a tux xD

- I truly believe The Lovely Bones will still be the major awards magnet this season

- I can't imagine that Best Actor line-up without Viggo Mortensen

- I still can't imagine that there won't be any lady nominated from Nine and two ladies from Up in the Air

- I also can't resume the Best Actress category to a showdown between Streep and Mulligan (I love Streep but I no longer think she'll win for Julie and Julia) and I do think Ronan is in. And I wouldn't disrespect Michelle Monaghan because I never saw the possibility of Melissa Leo getting nominated (especially over critics' darling Hawkins and international movie star Scott-Thomas) and look how well that turned out

- Best Director is shaping to be a huge mess. My guess is the Academy will go for the men and leave the women out (what a surprise!). So Daniels, Jackson, Eastwood, Marshall and here lies my doubt: Reitman, Ford, Malick or Coen Bros.? It will depend on the power of their respective films

- I still can't assume that Up! is a great possibility for Best Picture. I believe AMPAS changed the number of nominees because of the growing concern on their overall choices and not at all because of Wall-E's snub. So I don't believe 10 nominees will give a very well-crafted animated movie a chance at a nomination

- And I'd only change Damon for Smith-McPhee (if Viggo is nominated) or Richard Kind (if A Serious Man is a serious player) in your Sup. Actor line-up

So... My predictions:

ACTORMortensen (ClooneyDay-LewisFirthPlummerFreeman

ACTRESSSidibe StreepMulliganRonanMirren (Bening if film released)

SUP. ACTORMcAvoyTucciMolinaSmith Mc-Phee (Kind)Waltz

SUP. ACTRESSMooreCotillardMo'NiqueWeiszDench (Farmiga)

DIRECTORMarshallJacksonEastwoodDanielsReitman (Coen Bros.)

PICTUREUp in the AirPreciousAn EducationThe Lovely BonesInvictusNineThe Hurt LockerBright StarThe Last StationThe Tree of Life

I think if Julianne Moore gets nominated, she could be a serious contender to win. Everyone's all about Mo'nique right now, but her bad press for her absence on the campaign trail combined with not being regarded as a serious actress could hurt her. On the contrary, Julianne is widely considered way overdue, and Academy voters must be aware of that.

I think it's going to be Stanley Tucci's year this year. With 2 strong performances, one of them is bound to win (I think it will be for Julie & Julia). I also think Meryl Streep will win for the same picture, as the joyous Julia Child. What a performance! I know the movie was light, but the performance was perfect.

Let us remind ourselves that she didn't attend some FILM FESTIVALS! They don't need her to sell Precious to freakin' Cannes. I'm sure when it comes around to the film's ACTUAL AMERICAN RELEASE and the actual Oscar season that she'll gladly support the film.

Of course, there are a myriad other highlights in that filmography - for me, going backwards: Doubt; Angels in America; Adaptation; The Bridges of Madison County; Postcards from the Edge; Silkwood; Manhattan - but I think those three top them all.

Caveat: I've yet to see A Cry in the Dark (Evil Angels), Heartburn, or The French Lieutenant's Woman - so they could be better?... Though I guess it's all a matter of personal taste...

Styx ... it's because of my rule with "no locks until the film opens". And Christoph's is the only film to have opened. But I have a hard time seeing him winning. yet.

Thanks for the answer. I still think that if Waltz is your only "green" slot, then he should be first instead of Alfred Molina. But they're your predictions not mine. I have no problems saying that Waltz is still the supporting actor frontrunner, but no Jeff Bridges at least in the top ten? I'm really hoping that Anthony Mackie can pull through too, but he'll sadly fall short too.

I sure hope they push Cotillard as lead. One, it's a valid argument for a not quite supporting or leading role. Two, she's better here than she was in La Vie en Rose. Three, her two songs are stunning, filled with great visuals that will make great campaign advertisements. Four, it gives the other possibilities - Cruz, Dench, and Hudson - a stronger chance to be nominated. Five, did I mention she really deserves a nomination for this film? Just wanted to reiterate that one.

And I'll go out and say there is no way DDL doesn't get nominated here. There is nothing soft about Nine, even if it's a filed down version of a stage musical with bite.

...in regards to the trailer, her being dead, her being raped and murdered, and that her killer is the neighbor are all revealed within like the first 2 pages.

I'm sure they wish they could cook up a trailer that tells the audience little about the film but unfortunately for them...the film centers around the brutal murder of a child...so the subject matter kinda forces them to let the audiences know what they're in for...

anon 9:04 i'm not objecting to the setup in the trailer... 'the day that i was murdered' and all of htat. it's that they have all of that, PLUS the family's reaction. PLUS the plot of the family realizing who did the murder (not just us) PLUS the action of the girl sneaking into the house. PLUS the villain's reaction. PLUS Sammon's reactions in heaven. Honestly it feels like thye put in 1 second from each of the movie's 120 minutes.

the world would be a better place if trailers refused to show anything past the first two reels ;)

I'm just saying...a story like this seems like it'd be kinda a nightmare to try to market...like i cant even imagine how they'd cut up a 30 second TV Spot for this.

...So i just dont think the way they cut up the trailer indicates they're not confident in the film. You dont see the film in 2008...delay it 9 months from March to December... if you're not confident with it. But i understand it falling from #1...like its still 2 months away from premiering, obviously you have to find a reason to get it outta that spot or else it'll just sit there, but dropping to #9 was suprising.

I just found out that Within The Whirlwind has already played one screening in Europe with another soon in Boston. If it even gets a halfway decent response, then it'll get a distributor and Watson WILL be back in the discussion.

danielson... i would love to see that picture but even if it finds a distributor i think it would be altogether shocking if they went for 2009 at this point. There's just no time to plan a release. I think we just had our last gasp of sudden 2009 openings with That Evening Sun, A Single Man and The Last Station announcements.

the only movie i still vaguely have hopes for a sudden release is MOTHER AND CHILD but that's probably also foolish. Let's just say 2010 Bening vs. Watson ;)

Meryl Meryl Meryl - 3rd win overdue and completely deserved on the basis of the specfic performance.Oscar starts to loose credentials when one thinks she has as many as the Swank (who is no Swan).The Queen claims the throne back.