Brian Xanders improves the odds and gets a ton of manly love

Using probability theory and 20 years of draft data, last week we calculated the odds of the Broncos nabbing four three-year starters out of this year's draft.

Our conclusion was that they had a 20.37% chance.

This calculation was based on both the total number of picks (that's seven, Jeff Legwold) and the position of each pick itself.

Brian Xanders had other ideas, however. He not only looked the part of GM (sporting a tailored navy suit in the Broncos' war room), but he parlayed seven picks into nine.

Forget the silly and meanlingless points charts that NFL teams supposedly use to evaluate trades. Let's get to the heart of the issue, and the goal the Broncos had going into this draft, shall we?

Did the X-Man improve the probability that the Broncos would get four starters out of it?

Intuitively, you probably have a sense of the answer, but let's look at the numbers once again.

The Broncos originally possessed picks 2, 36, 46, 67, 186, 189, and 247. By leveraging pick #36 near the top of round two by dealing it to San Francisco and later swapping choices with the Packers, they were able to expand their draft to include picks 2, 45, 46, 67, 108, 129, 189, 204, and 247.

Some would say the Broncos were lucky, since the 49ers--the Broncos' victim in the first trade--desperately wanted to trade up to get a quarterback. The debate matters little to me. History books are written by the winners, whether they got lucky or not. So right now, until there's proof the 49ers got their franchise quarterback, the narrative is that Xanders is a skilled draft engineer who navigated the draft board like a champ.

As we did last week, we first use the 20 years of research provided by Tony Villiotti at Draftmetrics:

Draft Positions

1-13

14-28

29-48

49-74

75-114

115-200

201+

Observations/Picks

260

300

400

520

800

1720

1235

1-year starter percentages

93.80%

88.70%

76.00%

63.70%

45.90%

30.00%

16.10%

3-year starter percentages

74.60%

60.70%

55.00%

39.80%

23.60%

14.10%

7.40%

5-year starter percentages

53.50%

42.70%

35.30%

23.70%

14.60%

7.20%

4.00%

From this data--and we're going to again use the 3-year-starter benchmark--we calculate the probability of hitting or missing on the first pick and add it to the probability of hitting on subsequent picks. Nine iterations later, we have our numbers.

Let's compare what the Broncos chances were before the draft (with seven picks) to their chances after the draft (nine picks). Here's what the numbers show:

After Pick 9, Round 7

% Pre-Draft

% Post-Draft

% Change

Probability (9 Starters)

N/A

0.00%

N/A

Probability (8 Starters)

N/A

0.01%

N/A

Probability (7 Starters)

0.01%

0.19%

1767.78%

Probability (6 Starters)

0.39%

1.75%

349.30%

Probability (5 Starters)

4.09%

9.42%

130.28%

Probability (4 Starters)

20.37%

30.47%

49.57%

Probability (3 Starters)

53.03%

62.40%

17.66%

Probability (2 Starters)

84.24%

88.27%

4.78%

Probability (1 Starter)

97.88%

98.50%

0.64%

Probability (0 Starters)

100%

100.00%

0.00%

By acquiring an additional pick in each of the 4th and 5th rounds, Xanders significantly increased the Broncos' chances in our benchmark category. Prior to the draft, the Broncos had just over a 1/5 chance of getting four starters. Adding the two additional picks brought them up to 30.47%, or almost a 1/3 chance.

In all other categories, Xanders increased the Broncos' odds as well. The chances of the Broncos landing five starters in this draft more than doubled, while the chance of getting six starters, although still quite small, increased significantly.

We've been highly critical of X-Man for his less-than-stellar performances as a public speaker. However, his ability to increase the Broncos' odds during this draft was nothing short of bitchin'. He can mumble like Dustin Hoffman in Rain Man (and drive my car on the driveway) for all I care if he continues getting these results.

This part of what Xanders did during the draft has been ignored. For the most part, this is due to the fact that most football writers rarely dabble in probability, but it's also because it's easier to focus on the individual players than a bunch of numbers. However, in the long run, the draft is largely a game of dice (as Villioti's numbers demonstrate) in which only a few of the participants are able to gain a slight edge. By accumulating the extra high-quality picks, Xanders assured that the Broncos won't crap out.

How excited am I with what Xanders did?

Excited enough to show you a clip of Jay Cutler being sacked by his own lineman:

Okay, you got me. The other reason I showed you this video was to get you ready for the Broncos bringing Albert Haynesworth to Denver.

Anyone that hydrates his eyes by plunging his eyeballs in a water bottle then from drink same bottle AND wipes his entire face with the lapel from his blue blazer is&#8230well not sure what it means, except that the dude may not spend much time in the company of others. He sounds like the kind of guy that might keep all his nail clippings. Odd fellow, but he can trade like a maniac. And I can live with that.

Posted by Orange and Blue on 2011-05-06 01:34:11

No curb stomping from Denver players. Not even Rivers. Not even for DOOM music.

T.J&#8230.DUDE. You want Haynesworth in Orange and Blue? The overweight, overpaid, dirty thug that likes to curb stomp players when he&#8217s pissed off? I would rather go into the season without adding a DT then adding Haynesworth. He&#8217s scum and should only wear orange and blue if he is in a Bears uniform.

Posted by NickCast on 2011-05-05 21:10:00

I&#8217m not sure how much credit to give Xanders for the draft, but I&#8217ll give him the benefit of being open minded. Apart from his appalling media skills, I really have a problem with someone who promotes himself as being the man in charge during McDaniels tenure, then turns around and blames McD for all that ails the organization when he&#8217s left the building. It really seemed slimy to me and totally lacking in self responsibility which makes me question his integrity long term. With Bowlen clearly suffering from poor health and Joe Ellis making decisions with poor football knowledge I still see an organization that looks dysfunctional. I am hoping Elway&#8217s presence will stabilize the front office, but where the crucial decisions are being made isn&#8217t clear. OK they were able to increase their chances of getting productive players in the way they manipulated the draft, but I&#8217m not willing yet to concede it was Xanders brilliance that accomplished it.

As far as Haynesworth goes, it would really be a crapshoot. He has talent, but I value teamwork over selfishness in this case and besides, he&#8217s overpriced for the value.

Posted by Ponderosa on 2011-05-05 20:44:43

wow. deep stuff Piper. Can&#8217t say I disagree though. Who can argue with the wisdom if G-and-MF&#8217ing-R? Hanesworth is a locker room cancer who only plays when he wants to. We just got rid of a few of those, didn&#8217t we? Why would we want more?

That said, it IS impressive to see him push a 300-lb man backwards 8 yards in just under 3 seconds.

Posted by QDoc on 2011-05-05 19:17:27

Piper, you are ON FIRE today! What was TJs old lyrically based column back in the old days? Or at the very least, his lyrically based answers in the ol&#8217 Mail Revue?

Posted by ncm42 on 2011-05-05 19:14:32

Thanks ncm. Guns n Roses is a prime example of what happens when you assemble talent but the talent can&#8217t get along. Or one member can&#8217t get along with the rest. Just look at the writes on the Use Your Illusions. A lot of contributions were made by Izzy Stradlin, Duff McKagen, Slash&#8230 Even Paul McCarthy and Bob Dylan. (Oh wait, those were covers. Sorry.) Then Axl has to get all egotistical and kick everyone else out of HIS band. Now Velvet Revolver (Slash, Duff, Matt Sorum) is more Guns n Roses then Axl&#8217s current band of the same name.

So, bringing Albert Haynesworth onto your team would be like bringing Axl Rose into your band. An Appetite for (self) Destruction.

Posted by Piper A R on 2011-05-05 18:59:37

Haynesworth would be cool. Ya&#8217 hear the talk on the radio about trading Doom? Oh, I do NOT trade Orton. Right now, he&#8217s this team&#8217s best known quantity at QB.

Posted by jtomasik on 2011-05-05 18:42:04

Piper, I was sitting here trying to compose the most eloquent, thought-provoking, completely irrefutable argument against Fat Albert the world had ever seen. It was going to make women cry and men shake my hand in the street, all while the glow from a Major Award leg lamp bathed us all in comforting fluorescent bliss. Then you go and &#8220completely randomly&#8221 provide the truth as given to us from Axl himself. And now&#8230.well&#8230.no more need be said!

EXCELLENT pull Piper!

Posted by ncm42 on 2011-05-05 18:23:15

Should the Broncos attempt to aquire Fat Albert? Let&#8217s turn to iTunes for some advice on the matter. As I pick a *completely random song* from my collection, I land on Use Your Illusion I track 14. W Axl Rose in his wisdom cautions &#8220Don&#8217t let that one bad apple spoil the whole dam bunch&#8230. BOI!&#8221 W.A.R has spoken. No Haynesworth.

Posted by Piper A R on 2011-05-05 18:01:51

Does anyone know the link to Elway&#8217s comments about Haynesworth? If so, it would be appreciated.

Posted by DavidInLA on 2011-05-05 18:00:22

I agree cp - Elway didn&#8217t sound to pumped up over Haynesworth. Love the clip TJ! Remember a few years ago the Broncos were considering Chris Williams over Clady? Sure glad that didn&#8217t happen! I read recently the Bears might try him at center. Ouch.