Performance of the October to December short rains was highly mixed across Kenya, leading to below-average crop performance and inadequate replenishment of rangeland resources in rainfall-deficit areas. In many pastoral and southeastern marginal agricultural areas, rainfall was below 85 percent of normal, while rainfall in the rest of the country was above average. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to persist in most pastoral and marginal agricultural areas through May, and an increase in the number of poor households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected in localized areas of Turkana, Wajir, and Garissa by February.

Aside from Isiolo and Mandera, early declines in water and rangeland resources in pastoral zones have caused trekking distances from grazing areas to watering points to increase to 25 to 50 percent above average. This has led to earlier-than-normal livestock migration in Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Wajir, and Garissa, which is likely to increase conflict incidents. Despite these trends, household purchasing power and food access remain stable as the goat-to-maize terms of trade was 10 to 50 percent above the five-year average in December.

In marginal agricultural areas, prevailing crop moisture stress is likely to result in significant total yield losses, though maize crops are currently at different growth stages given erratic rainfall distribution. Along the coast, maize crops are in the early maturing stages. In the southeast, maize crops are in the vegetative stages in moisture-stressed parts of Kitui, Mbeere, and Tharaka Nithi and in the grain filling stages in Makueni. Short-cycle legumes are also at various stages of development, ranging from flowering to harvesting.

From November to December, wholesale maize prices were 10 to 30 percent below the five-year average, attributed to consistent cross-border imports, high carryover stocks, and recent above-average harvests from the high and medium agricultural potential areas of the Rift Valley and western Kenya. Despite significant losses from excessive rainfall, dry bean prices remain within the five-year average in Nairobi, Eldoret, and Kisumu; however, prices are 10 percent below average in Mombasa, driven down by cross-border imports from Tanzania.

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Kenya Food Security Brief

This Food Security Brief is a starting point for anyone seeking a deep understanding of the range of factors influencing food security in Kenya. It draws on decades of FEWS NET data and information on livelihoods, household vulnerability, nutrition, trade, and agro-climatology, as well as an array of other sources. It provides an overview of the food security context, the main determinants of chronic and acute food insecurity, and areas at most risk of food insecurity.