Feb. 23, 2013

Nick Renkoski. / Special to the Register

Corey K. Creekmur. / Special to the Register

Kevin Kretschmur. / Special to the Register

Scott Siepker. / Special to the Register

Michael Woody. / Special to the Register

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Michael Woody

Who he is: Film reviewer, www.woodyreviews.blogspot.com
Best Picture

Will win: “Argo.” Momentum is everything and Ben Affleck’s Best Director snub has really rallied Hollywood’s support.
Should win: “Les Miserables.” The filmmaking and the acting were absolutely stunning. The raw emotion of the translation from the musical was amazing.
Who got snubbed: “The Dark Knight Rises” and “Skyfall”

Best ActorWill win: Daniel Day-Lewis in “Lincoln.” He has essentially, with that performance, raised the bar for everybody else going forward.
Should win: Day-Lewis. He has set a new standard. You did not look at that screen and see Daniel Day-Lewis, you saw Abraham Lincoln.
Who got snubbed: John Hawkes in “The Sessions”

Best ActressWill win: Emmanuelle Riva in “Amour.” Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence will split the vote, so Riva, a sentimental favorite, will take the Oscar.
Should win: Jessica Chastain in “Zero Dark Thirty.” She was so cold and unemotional, which is extremely tough. She did her job and was focused on doing that job no matter what.
Who got snubbed: Judi Dench in “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
Best Director

Will win: Steven Spielberg for “Lincoln.” The three best directors aren’t in the race: Tom Hooper for “Les Miserables,” Bigelow for “Zero Dark Thirty” and Ben Affleck for “Argo,” so that’s in Spielberg’s favor.
Should win: Spielberg. He did a great job with “Lincoln” without going for schmaltz like he did in last year’s “War Horse.”
Who got snubbed: Ben Affleck for “Argo”

Nick Renkoski

(www.nickrenkoski.com) Best PictureWill win: “Lincoln.” The challenge from “Argo” is real, but “Lincoln” is deserving and has too many other things going for it. Should win: “Amour.” This quiet and powerful film is the best on the list. Who got snubbed: “Moonrise Kingdom”

Best ActorWill win: Daniel Day-Lewis in “Lincoln.” It’s hard to say “uncanny” about someone portraying a person who has never been recorded, but Day-Lewis not only lives up to the look, he lives up to our very idea of Abraham Lincoln. Should win: Joaquin Phoenix in “The Master.” Phoenix’s interesting, challenging and uneasy performance was an exercise in controlled chaos. Who got snubbed: John Hawkes in “The Sessions”

Best ActressWill win: Emmanuelle Riva in “Amour.” Jessica Chastain and definitely Jennifer Lawrence are in the mix here, but I think the academy won’t be able to turn away from this deserving performance from a foreign import (non-Americans have won at least one acting Oscar every year since 1998), especially considering she’s the oldest Best Actress nominee ever and Oscar night is also her 86th birthday. That’s too much human interest to pass up. Should win: Riva. As a woman whose health is rapidly failing her, she did a tremendous job showing the pain and shame of losing your faculties and recognizing it. Who got snubbed: Rachel Mwanza in “War Witch”

Best DirectorWill win: Steven Spielberg for “Lincoln.” With Affleck (“Argo”) not in the picture and Ang Lee’s stock staying more or less put, Spielberg is an obvious choice. It helps that he made a sweeping Hollywood epic. Should win: David O. Russell for “Silver Linings Playbook.” Russell’s dramady doesn’t have the impressive set pieces of some of the other nominees’ films, but his control of the ever-shifting tone of the movie from hard drama to screwball was exemplary. Who got snubbed: Paul Thomas Anderson for “The Master”

Corey K. Creekmur

Who he is: Director of film studies and director of the Institute for Cinema and Culture, University of Iowa Best PictureWill win: “Argo.” This year, a series of awards for “Argo” from other groups will probably lead to an Oscar as well for the rare “feel-good” film set in the Middle East. Should win: “Lincoln.” Spielberg’s film is in the tradition of Oscar-winning biopics, and keeps some of his tendencies towards excess and sentimentality in check. Who got snubbed: “The Master”

Best ActorWill win: Daniel Day-Lewis in “Lincoln.” For taking on a genuine icon and monument, and making him appear (and sound, via a bold vocal choice) like an actual human being. Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis. No other nominated actor this year comes close. Who got snubbed: John Hawkes in “The Sessions”

Best ActressWill win: Jennifer Lawrence in “Silver Linings Playbook.” Among a wildly diverse group of nominees without a clear front-runner, Lawrence seems the safe bet in the sort of dysfunctional role Oscar tends to reward. Should win: Emmanuelle Riva in “Amour.” For her performance, and to serve (as acting awards often do) as an unofficial recognition of her “career achievement.” Who got snubbed: Marion Cotillard in “Rust and Bone”

Best DirectorWill win: Steven Spielberg for “Lincoln.” With Ben Affleck out of the running, Spielberg will probably be rewarded even if his film is not. Should win: Benh Zeitlin for “Beasts of the Southern Wild.” Beasts is a stunning and original debut, but the Oscars are wary of first-timers in this category. Who got snubbed: Ben Affleck. If the film is admired by Oscar voters, presumably someone directed it!

Kevin Kretschmer

Who he is: Author, Des Moines Public Library’s Media Musings blog (www.dmplmoviesandmusic.wordpress.com/) Best PictureWill win: “Lincoln.” It’s a distinguished film that’s well-made in every sense, while the subject matter (Lincoln, 13th Amendment) is timeless. Should win: “Argo.” It is completely gripping, telling an interesting side story to a major historical event. It’s often appropriately tense, but it also manages to slip in elements of humor to keep it from becoming overwrought. Who got snubbed: “Looper.” I know it’s not an Oscar-type film, but it was intricate, original and entertaining. What’s so bad about that?

Best ActorWill win: Daniel Day-Lewis in “Lincoln.” Obviously, none of us know how Lincoln spoke or moved, so Day-Lewis had a fair amount of latitude in his portrayal. And try as I might, I couldn’t quite find Day-Lewis on the screen. He successfully submersed himself into the role and created a character that, accurate or not, was worthy of being called Abraham Lincoln. Should win: Day-Lewis. It’s hard to believe that Day-Lewis could win his third Oscar for Best Actor, which would be a record for actors, but he is clearly one of the greatest screen actors of his generation, if not all time. Who got snubbed: Jake Gyllenhaal in “End of Watch”

Best ActressWill win: Jennifer Lawrence in “Silver Linings Playbook.” Should win: Lawrence. In a year of very few Oscar-worthy performances by actresses, her’s seems a standout. She has such a natural presence on screen that she is never guilty of the mannerly moments that betray trying-too-hard actors who can’t quite nail a character. Who got snubbed: Frankly, I’m not that happy with some of the performances that were nominated. I just think that it’s a bad year for well-written/well-acted female roles.

Best DirectorWill win: Steven Spielberg for “Lincoln.” Spielberg’s main competition, Ben Affleck (“Argo”) and Kathryn Bigelow (“Zero Dark Thirty”), didn’t even get nominated. Besides, a third win for directing would put Spielberg into choice company, which the industry would probably like to see happen. Should win/Who got snubbed: Ben Affleck for “Argo.” It may be the most complete film of the year. All of the big nominees have faults, but Argo has fewer.

Scott Siepker

Who he is: The “Iowa Nice” guy, member of Iowa Filmmakers (www.iowafilmmakers.com) Best PictureWill win: “Argo.” Do the voters of the Academy really despise Ben Affleck? We will know shortly. Should win: “Lincoln.” Of all this year’s movies, “Lincoln” will resonate for decades to come due to its subject matter, script, performances and the guiding vision of Steven Spielberg. Who got snubbed: “Skyfall”

Best ActorWill win: Daniel Day-Lewis in “Lincoln.” After his performance as Lincoln, the Academy should consider renaming the Best Actor award after Daniel Day-Lewis. Should win: Day-Lewis. If Abraham Lincoln were alive today, he couldn’t have done as good of a job as Day-Lewis did portraying our 16th president. Who got snubbed: John Hawkes in “The Sessions” and Ben Affleck in “Argo”

Best ActressWill win: Emmanuelle Riva in “Amour.” Her heartbreaking performance is truly deserving of this honor. This is a close category, though. I think the length and breadth of Riva’s career will be the tie-breaker with Academy voters. Should win: Jennifer Lawrence in “Silver Linings Playbook.” When she first ran onto screen, I was not expecting a great performance. By the end, I had loathed her character, loved her character, and most remarkably, I had come to under­stand her character. Who got snubbed: Marion Cotillard in “Rust and Bone”

Best DirectorWill win: Steven Spielberg for “Lincoln.” When Spielberg is at the top of his game, there is no one better. In “Lincoln,” Spielberg is at the top of his game. Should win: David O. Russell for “Silver Linings Playbook.” The power of Harvey Weinstein’s publicity machine is making me second-guess everything. I thought “Saving Private Ryan” was a better movie than “Shakespeare in Love,” though. So what do I know? Who got snubbed: Ben Affleck for “Argo”