February 7, 2013

The Storm Report Blog For February 7-9, 2013

by Joshua Kelly

Left Map Analysis: Looking at the latest satellite image, we can note two pronounced weather features, which are going to set the stage for a potent storm along the Northeast United States. The red circle is, as of 11AM on February 7, showing the latest position of the northern storm, which will start making its way towards the Northeast impacting places like Chicago and the Great Lakes. The yellow indicates where the southern storm is located, as this storm will move along the Northern Gulf and push towards the Northeast by this weekend.

Right Map Analysis: These are our latest predictions for the impacts that will be felt by this duo of storms. The Northern Storm is going to continue to impact the Great Lakes region with moderate snowfall, while the Southern storm system will bring moderate rain to the south before making its turn to the north. The dashed yellow lines are the two projected courses of the lows. The Northern low will move across the Great Lakes and then over the Northeast merging with the Southern low. The Southern lows track will take it across Florida and then towards the Northeast. When these two storms merge they will form one powerful storm system with large impacts in the form of very heavy snows and blizzard conditions. The solid green line is our forecasted rainfall impact region, with most places seeing up to one inch of rain with some locally heavier amounts possible. The light blue line is our outline for the snowfall area. The dark blue line is the forecasted area that will see heavy snow with moderate accumulations. The purple shaded area inside the blue lines will see the most significant snow totals; some places could be measuring the snow in feet. The pink lined area will be the place to watch for the development of freezing rain and snow along with rain mixing together; some minor accumulations may be possible.

Image Credit: Joshua Kelly

Looking at the potential impacts of this storm for certain cities and how they will be impacted. (These conditions are for February 7-9).

Boston, MA: The snow will begin to impact the region by the early afternoon on the 8th. Winds will be a huge impact in this region with winds from the Northeast at 20-30mph with higher gust. Temperatures on the 8th will be in the lower 30’s. Total snowfall accumulations for the 8th will be around 10-14inches for the Metro area, with the possibility of seeing heavier snow just west of the metro area.

New York City, NY: The moisture will begin to move into the region early Friday morning. As warmer temperatures will be in place, this will create rainfall to start with. Total rainfall amounts may be around a half an inch. Temperatures will be in the upper 30’s early then dropping to the lower 30’s towards evening. This is when all the moisture will turn to snow. The evening of the 8th the region could be dealing with heavy snowfall. Total snowfall accumulations of 5-10inches will be possible across most of New York City and the suburbs. Winds will be very strong from the Northeast at about 20-30mph with higher gusts which will create dangerous driving conditions in the city.

Portland, ME: The snow will begin to move in during the overnight hours and become heavy at times through the day on the 8th. Total snowfall amounts will be in the 12-16inch range. Winds will become a huge problem as they will be northeasterly at 35-45mph with higher gusts possible. Temperatures for this event will range in the 17-21F. This will create blizzard like conditions and have huge impacts to travel.

Buffalo, NY: The snow will move in during the early morning hours of the 8th, with the heaviest snow falling during the day. Total snowfall accumulations for the area could be in the 6-10inch range. Winds will be moderate from the north around 15-20mph. The temperatures for the day on the 8th will be between 32-36F in the morning, quickly dropping by evening to the upper teens.

Baltimore, MD: Look for warm air to move in during the first part of the day on the 8th with temps into the upper 30’s to lower 40’s. This will create a window of rainfall in the Metro area. Total rainfall amounts could be in the half an inch area. Later in the afternoon there will be a chance to see some rain and snow mixing together, followed by a small window on the backside with snowfall. Total snowfall accumulations of 2-4inches will be likely. Winds will be fairly strong from the Northwest around 20-30mph with higher gust possible.

Burlington, VT: The snow will begin to move in during the overnight hours, and become heavy during the day on the 8th with the chance of seeing 4-8inches total. Temperatures will be fairly cold during the event in the range of 16-20F. The winds will be from the Northeast around 15-20mph.

Past 24hr Storm Summary: This dynamic storm system has had two parts to it, the first being the storm system that moved through Houston Texas and into the Northern Gulf overnight, creating a wide range of rain and some thunderstorms as it moved through the region. Some rainfall amounts have been in the 1-3inch total so far. The second storm, which has moved out of the Oklahoma region and pushed slowly towards the northeast, was responsible for bringing some moderate snowfall to the region.

24hr Storm Impacts: The next 24hrs will be crucial to this storm system. Expect to see the Southern Low move towards the Northeast , while the Northern Storm will start to push across into the Northeast U.S., by this evening. These two storms will meet together and create a wide array of heavy snows with many places getting near one foot and even some places seeing more than one foot of total snowfall out of this event. The winds are also going to be a huge problem with this storm as some places will see gust approach the 45-50mph range.