Trudy Rubin: Iran protests call for a thoughtful response

If you want to understand what has provoked days of protests in Iran, I have some suggestions. You need to look beyond the headlines.

Since there are very few Western correspondents in Iran, you can find the richest trove of video and fresh information on Twitter (just not @realDonaldTrump). Check out the inimitable Carnegie Endowment fellow Karim Sadjadpour @ksadjadpour; intrepid Iranian-born journalists Maziar Bahari @maziarbahari, Farnaz Fassihi @farnazfassihi, and Borzou Daragahi @borzou; the Brookings Institution’s Suzanne Maloney @MaloneySuzanne; and human-rights activist Gissou Nia @GissouNia.

To summarize their observations: These protests began with working-class youths in eastern Iran and have spread to Tehran and a host of smaller cities and reflect the economic and social woes of Iran’s younger generation. But the demonstrations are leaderless and disconnected; they won’t lead to a change of regime and if they turn more violent or grow bigger, the regime will surely crush them.

There are things the West can do to warn Tehran off a violent crackdown. But a U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear accord and restoration of sanctions would shift Iranians’ blame for their troubles to the United States.

Whereas the Iranian revolution once claimed to champion the dispossessed, the poor are now considered a burden. The social safety net has shrunk due to falling oil prices, international sanctions, inflation, corruption, and reduced subsidies to the poor.

In 2015, official Iranian sources reported that 40 percent of the population lived below the poverty line, and unemployment among those 20 to 24 years of age was 25 percent.

Among the working class, the rate of short-term and irregular employment tops 90 percent, writes Shahram Khosravi in his book "Precarious Lives: Waiting and Hope in Iran." In the meantime, “luxury shopping malls have mushroomed all over Tehran.”

“This poverty, unemployment, and unpaid salaries, this anger we see today,” Khosravi told me by phone from Sweden, "is an accumulation of all the disappointments going on for a long time. Many young people are disappointed and see no future.

Of course, the cause of Iran’s economic troubles is also systemic.

The New York Times has reported that an initial catalyst for the public’s anger was a leaked version of a proposed governmental budget. It included billions of dollars for the military and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps — with their costly ventures in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. Huge cash subsidies also go to religious foundations controlled by the clerical elite; the budget also proposed to slash subsidies for the poor and increase fuel prices.

Yet, there is little sign so far that the protests will lead to political upheaval, and the reasons go beyond the regime’s monopoly of force.

Ordinary Iranians have bad memories of war and revolution. They are wary of the chaos in neighboring Iraq and in Syria. The government warns them that the United States and Saudi Arabia seek regime change. And Trump tweets underline the government’s warnings.

So what should America do, or not do, to support the protests — or at least, to help avert a bloody crackdown?

I endorse Sadjadpour’s suggestions — including careful U.S. statements of solidarity that support peaceful demonstrations and helping Iranians get the technology to circumvent regime internet blackouts.

Also, the White House should mobilize allies in Europe and Asia with whom Tehran wants greater trade to warn the ayatollahs against a massive crackdown.

I would add to this list that Trump should drop the ban on visas for Iranians to visit America. Nothing is more indicative of Trump hypocrisy than cheering the demonstrators while preventing visits from Iranian people.

What the United States should NOT do: Incite protesters to revolution, as George H.W. Bush incited Iraqis to try to oust Saddam Hussein, before letting the dictator crush them. I doubt that Trump would take such advice. But, fortunately for them, Iranians now know the U.S. track record, and are unlikely to take Trump tweets any more seriously than they deserve.

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