So it is, as well, with markets. Cycles come in, sometimes stronger than others.

Welcome Home, Spring!

This year, we’ve got a Super Bloom of wildflowers in Southern California. I love seeing the desert in bloom. For a guy who grew up on Long Island, the desert seems like a place out of the movies. Seeing such vibrant colors spring forth from the stark terrain gives us hope.

“He wears no crown upon his royal head,But many millions in his purse, instead;

He keeps no halls of state; but holds his courtin dingy rooms where thrift and greed resort;

In iron chests his wondrous wealth he hoards;Banks are his parlors; brokers his lords,

Bonds, bills, and mortgages, his favorite books,Gold is his food, and coiners are his cooks; …”
— John G. Saxe, The Money-King, 1854

Saxe’s lengthy mid-nineteenth century poem is descriptive of the exalted financial state of the European banking families considered to be “Money-Kings.”

In 2019, many of the poem’s couplets ring familiar with today’s growing problem of income inequality.

It’s something to consider, when considering those running for office.

Best regards,

Steve

PS My father, Paul Sarnoff, authored a biography of Russell Sage, published in 1965, Russell Sage: The Money King. Sage banked the tycoons and helped shape the Industrial Revolution. He became one of the wealthiest people in US history.

Psychology plays an enormous role in markets. Traders and investors struggle to get a handle on their biases.

Failure to check your built-in biases can trip you up in and out of the market. They can flare up at inopportune times in many of your decisions, from the grocery store to the voting booth.

Often we’re unaware of outside forces exerting influence on human activity. Don’t be surprised when major world events and market turning points coincide with key cycle dates. After all, look at what the root of the word “lunatic” is.

“May there always be work for your hands to do.May your purse always hold a coin or two.May the sun always shine upon your window pane.May a rainbow be certain to follow each rain.May the hand of a friend always be near to you andMay God fill your heart with gladness to cheer you.”
— Irish Blessing

“There’s a quick and easy way to test whether an activity involves skill: ask whether you can lose on purpose. In games of skill, it is clear you can lose intentionally but when playing roulette or the lottery you can’t lose on purpose.”
— Michael Mauboussin

Working harder and smarter can improve your skill and likelihood of trading success. But in the end, it’s still to a large degree up to luck.

Just don’t ever make the mistake of believing your good fortune means you “know” the market.