Press Release for Wednesday, August 10, 2016

John Rutherford Holds Lead in New Florida Congressional District 4 Poll

Jacksonville,
Fla. – A new poll conducted by the Public Opinion Research
Laboratory at the University of North Florida in partnership with WJXT Channel
4 of likely Republican voters in Congressional District 4 shows that former
Jacksonville Sherriff John Rutherford leads the race with 30.8 percent, Hans
Tanzler is in second place with 12.7 percent and State Rep. Lake Ray
carries third place with 9.5 percent. St. Johns County Commissioner Bill
McClure holds fourth with 4.7 percent, Ed Malin garnered 2.5 percent, Stephen
Kaufman 1.5 percent and Deborah Katz Pueschel .7 percent.

“There
is very little change from the poll last month and there is still a great deal
of uncertainty in this primary,” said Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty
director. “Nassau and St. Johns Counties have almost 10 percentage points
higher of ‘don’t know’ responses, which isn’t surprising since six of the seven
candidates have roots in Duval County.”

“Rutherford
has maintained his lead even as the media campaign has heated up,” Binder
continued. “The support for both Tanzler and Ray is relatively unchanged from
last month, despite the potential of so many undecided voters. McClure has
greater support in his home county of St. Johns than in the other counties in
the district.”

Respondents
were asked for whom they would vote if the Republican primary election for the
U.S. House of Representatives were being held today.

Vote Choice

Candidates

Likely Republican Voters

n= 600

Likely Republican VotersResults June 2016 n=403

Stephen Kaufman

1.5%

<1%

Ed Malin

2.5%

<1%

Bill McClure

4.7%

2%

Deborah Katz Pueschel

.7%

2%

Lake Ray

9.5%

9%

John Rutherford

30.8%

27%

Hans Tanzler

12.7%

13%

Don’t Know

37.7%

46%

*Congressional District 4 includes portions of Duval, St. Johns and Nassau counties.

Vote Choice by County

Candidates

Likely Republican Voters Duval n= 349

Likely Republican Voters St. Johns n= 153

Likely Republican Voters Nassau n= 98

Stephen Kaufman

.9%

2.0%

3.1%

Ed Malin

3.2%

1.3%

2.0%

Bill McClure

2.9%

11.1%

1.0%

Deborah Katz Pueschel

.9%

.7%

0%

Lake Ray

12.3%

4.6%

7.1%

John Rutherford

33.8%

26.1%

27.6%

Hans Tanzler

12.0%

12.4%

15.3%

Don’t Know

34.1%

41.9%

43.9%

*Congressional District 4 includes portions of Duval, St. Johns and Nassau counties.

Vote Choice by Gender

Candidates

Likely Republican Voters Men n= 293

Likely Republican Voters Women n= 307

Stephen Kaufman

1.4%

1.6%

Ed Malin

2.4%

2.6%

Bill McClure

5.1%

4.2%

Deborah Katz Pueschel

.7%

.7%

Lake Ray

10.2%

8.8%

John Rutherford

31.1%

30.6%

Hans Tanzler

11.6%

13.7%

Don’t Know

37.6%

37.8%

*Congressional District 4 includes portions of Duval, St. Johns and Nassau counties.

Methodology

The
WJXT Channel 4 Florida Congressional District 4 Poll was conducted by the
Public Opinion Research Laboratory Thursday Aug. 4, through Monday Aug. 8, by telephone.
Samples were created through voter files provided by each county’s board of
elections and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters.
Calls were conducted only in English, with 600 registered Republican likely
voters, 18 years of age or older. Likely voters were considered people who had
voted in statewide primary elections in 2012 or 2014. Newly registered voters
that voted in the 2016 presidential preference primary were also included as
likely voters. In addition to be considered a likely voter, the respondent
indicated that they would “Definitely Vote” or “Probably Vote” in August’s
primary election.

The
margin of error is +/- 4 percent. The breakdown of completed responses on a
landline phone to a cell phone was 44 to 55 percent with 1 percent unknown. The
sample had quota for geography. This survey was sponsored by WJXT Channel 4 and
the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and
is directed by Associate Professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder. The
PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research
to fulfill each client’s individual needs from political, economic, social and
cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center
and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research
Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder
at porl@unf.edu or at (904)
620-2784. Website: https://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/

Survey
Instrument

Q1.
If the Republican Primary election for the US House of Representatives were
being held today, for whom would you vote? [Rotate – Leave Someone Else last]

Stephen
Kaufman

Ed
Malin

Bill
McClure

Deborah
Katz Pueschel

Lake
Ray

John
Rutherford

Hans
Tanzler

Someone
Else _____________ [Not Read]

Don’t
Know [Not Read]

Refusal
[Not Read]

Q2.
Are we reaching you today on a landline or cell phone?

Landline

Cell phone

Don’t
Know [Not Read]

Refusal
[Not Read]

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