Thursday, October 1, 2009

Survey questions can be questionable

The CBS/New York Times released the results of a RDD phone survey of 1,042 adult Americans on 9/24/09. Among the items heavily reported in the "liberal media" was the "fact" that nearly two-thirds of the public support a "public option" in the health care reforms being currently considered by Congress. But look at the actual wording of the question:

"q57 Would you favor or oppose the government offering everyone a government administered health insurance plan -- something like the Medicare coverage that people 65 and older get -- that would compete with private health insurance plans?"

Isn't it very likely that the specific mention of Medicare would have boosted the percentage of people in support of such a plan? Despite its many problems, Medicare is well regarded among the American people. It's a good brand. Including it in the question undoubtedly inflated the support of the survey's results.

Little noted were the results of another question in the same survey: "q38 Do you think you understand the health care reforms under consideration in Congress, or are they confusing to you?" 59 percent said they were confused. Should we put a lot of faith in the support of the "public option"?

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Robert W. Pearson, Ph.D., is Senior Fellow at the Fels Institute of Government at the University of Pennsylvania. Dr. Pearson has previously served as Executive Director of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Associate Dean at the H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management at Carnegie Mellon University, Director of Corporate and Foundation Relations at Barnard College, and Program Officer at the Social Science Research Council. He has been on the faculties of Catholic University, Columbia University, and Barnard College. He earned his doctorate in political science from the University of Chicago. Dr. Pearson is the author of a textbook on applied statistics, Statistical Persuasion, published by Sage Publications in January 2010.