After Wisconsin, “I’m in a New York State of Mind”

Both Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders outperformed the polls in Wisconsin yesterday. The latest had Cruz ahead by 4.7 points and he beat Trump 43 to 35. The polling averages had Sanders ahead by 2.6 points, but he won 56 to 43.

Because the state was “winner take all” for the Republicans, that means that Cruz netted 30 delegates over Trump, but he still trails the real estate mogul by 226 delegates. Sanders netted 14 delegates over Clinton (so far), but he also trails by 249. So, overall, the leaders in both races took a hit in Wisconsin, but not enough of one to change the dynamics of either race.

If this pattern holds, Sanders should outperform the polls in Wisconsin, which holds an open primary. But by mid/late April he’ll run into a brick wall of closed primaries in New York, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware and Pennsylvania – with almost 500 delegates up for grabs.

In exit polls from Wisconsin’s open primary yesterday, Sanders beat Clinton among Independents by a huge margin (72/28). But the good news for his campaign is that he tied her among Democrats (50/50). That’s not enough to make much headway on the delegate count in the upcoming closed primaries, but it is better than he’s done in most states.

For the next two weeks the focus is all going to be on the 2nd biggest enchilada in the country when it comes to delegates – New York. It also happens to be the state that 3 of the 5 contenders in this race called “home” at one point or another. By the time April 19th rolls around, we’re all going to be in a New York state of mind.

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