BMI View:We maintain our downbeat outlook for Venezuela's oil and gas sector, despite vast belowground potential and ambitious production plans by state-owned PdVSA. We expect Venezuela to underperform, given the large scope of above-ground challenges, including excessive political interference, chronic underinvestment, an unattractive operating environment and the precarious financial situation of PdVSA. Sustained weakness in global oil prices will deteriorate production growth prospects as PdVSA and international investors face declining revenues and a limited amount of available capex funds.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

- Venezuela will remain in a deep recession over the coming quarters as a result of low oil prices and severe macroeconomic mismanagement. While gradually rising oil prices will temper the depth of the recession over the coming quarters, substantial improvements will depend on the implementation of wide-ranging reforms.

- Crude production declines accelerated over the course of 2016 H116, with direct communication data from OPEC showing a decline to 2.32mn b/d in August, a 12.1% decline over last year. Secondary sources report that output fell to 2.1mn b/d, with YTD production averaging 2.21mn b/d, the lowest average measurement for the country in 25 years.

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