More violent than Iraq ever was

March 27, 2013

Updated Aug. 21, 2013 12:28 p.m.

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In this image taken from video obtained from Shaam News Network, which has been authenticated based on its content and AP reporting, Free Syrian Army fighters fire at Syrian soldiers during a firefight in Daraa al-Balad, Syria . UNCREDITED, SHAAM NEWS NETWORK VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS VIDEO

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In this image taken from video obtained from Shaam News Network, which has been authenticated based on its content and AP reporting, Free Syrian Army fighters fire at Syrian soldiers during a firefight in Daraa al-Balad, Syria . UNCREDITED, SHAAM NEWS NETWORK VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS VIDEO

In this image taken from video obtained from Shaam News Network, which has been authenticated based on its content and AP reporting, Free Syrian Army fighters fire at Syrian soldiers during a firefight in Daraa al-Balad, Syria . UNCREDITED, SHAAM NEWS NETWORK VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS VIDEO

The year 2006 was pure horror for Iraq. It was hard to imagine the war going any worse: Sunni groups, spearheaded by al-Qaida's powerful local affiliate, launched suicide bombings against Shiite holy sites and civilian areas. On Feb. 22, 2006, a bomb ripped through the golden dome of the al-Askari mosque, one of the holiest sites in Shiite Islam. Although no one was killed, more than 1,000 died in the first day of the sectarian bloodletting that followed.

According to the Brooking Institution's Iraq Index, 36,591 Iraqi civilians and security forces died violently that year. The fighting killed 3,902 insurgents, according to figures from the international military coalition. That means an average of 3,374 Iraqis were killed monthly, or roughly 111 Iraqis died per day.

The destruction wrought by the Syrian conflict has already surpassed that. The United Nations estimates that 70,000 people have been killed, and the death toll has only escalated in recent months. According to the pro-opposition Violations Documentation Center, 4,472 Syrians have been killed on average each month since December. That means over this span of time, an average of 149 Syrians have lost their lives daily.

Syria'sÂ population is roughly two-thirds that of Iraq – it is home to roughly 22 million people, while Iraq's totals around 31 million.Â Syria'sÂ victims, in other words, are coming from a considerably smaller population pool.

REFUGEES

The refugee wave in Iraq peaked around 2007, when the U.S. surge in troops caused more civilians to flee: According to the U.N. refugee agency, there were roughly 2.2 million Iraqi refugees at that point.

On March 6, the number of Syrians who had applied for refugee status with the United Nations hit 1 million – the 1 millionth refugee was a 19-year-old mother of two named Bushra, who fled from the city of Homs to Lebanon. Since March 6, another 165,000 Syrians have fled their country. The head of the U.N. refugee agency said on March 10 that the number of Syrian refugees could double or triple by the end of 2013.

DISPLACED PEOPLE

According to the United Nations, 2.4 million Iraqis had been displaced in 2007, and relocated elsewhere in Iraq. Meanwhile, U.N. statistics estimate that 2.5 million Syrians are internally displaced – showing that violence has spread to almost all cities and areas of the country.

While the challenge of providing for Iraqi refugees was daunting, the Syrian case is, if anything, more so. Syrians are scattered between a number of neighboring countries – Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan – and the United Nations estimates that it only has 30 percent of the necessary funds to provide for refugees for the first half of 2013. The plight of Syrians displaced within their country is even worse: The vast majority of aid money does not reach rebel-held areas.

ECONOMIC IMPACT

Iraq still faces serious economic problems – notably, an excessive reliance on energy revenue from its huge oil reserves – but its troubles are dwarfed by Syria's. A report prepared by the Syrian Center for Policy Research, an NGO focused on economic issues, estimated that almost half ofÂ Syria'sÂ wealth – 45 percent of GDP, to be exact – has been destroyed over the past two years.

Unemployment, meanwhile, jumped to 35 percent since the beginning of the crisis. Syria'sÂ electricity production has been halved due to fuel shortages, Damascus suffers frequent blackouts, and rebel-held areas receive only a few hours of power a day. Bread has also been scarce, with prices in Aleppo shooting up from 21 cents for a bag of eight loaves to nearly $3 in December.

Unlike Iraq,Â SyriaÂ doesn't have the energy revenue to recover quickly. According to BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, it sits on a meager 0.2 percent of the world's proven oil reserves – by comparison, Iraq has 8.4 percent of the world's known reserves.Â

LOOKING AHEAD

Just like Iraq's, the war in Syria has opened sectarian wounds throughout the region: In Lebanon, the Shiite Hezbollah militants have joined the war on the side of Assad, while Sunni groups have crossed the border to help the rebels. In Iraq, the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, a Shiite, has allowed Iranian planes to fly weapons for Assad across Iraqi airspace.

Syria'sÂ disintegration will do more than exacerbate the Sunni-Shiite rivalry. In the north, the Kurdish community looks poised to carve out a de facto autonomous area, from which it could struggle for power with anti-Assad Arab rebels. In the south, the rebels' four-day kidnapping of 21 U.N. peacekeepers raised the possibility that the lightly armed force that has helped keep the peace in the Golan Heights for four decades could withdraw – a move that could open the doors to Israeli intervention. And of course, radical Islamist groups such as the al-Qaida-linked Jabhat al-Nusra, which have already gained control of large swaths of territory and heavy weaponry, could maintain these safe havens in the chaos of Assad's fall.

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