You've got an isolated cell over the Evergreen area at the moment. We're tracking it on NEXRAD KFTG. We're going to see some upslope and orographic development all afternoon. Nothing severe is expected, however I would not be surprised to see some small hail from these. More widespread rain is forecast later this afternoon into tonight.

Yes. And we are heading into the first full-blown El Nino winter in quite some time. As you know, we usually get two or three major snowstorms in El Nino winters here along the Front Range. Personally, I enjoy the big snows, as long as the power stays on and I don't have to go anywhere. What I do not care for is the "dry, windy cold" where it's -10, cloudy and doing nothing but being windy.

Well, for weather in Colorado, the jury is always out LOL. I think every TV station did an article about El Nino this week. But, it is a hot topic. My take on the whole thing is that we will most likely have a snowy fall (possibly including a Halloween snowstorm), and then things will get quiet from about Christmas until early March. During winter, we'll flux between warm spells and cold snaps. Then an active spring with a couple of significant wet-snow events. All of this is speculation based on what I've seen since moving to the Denver/Front Range area in 1979.

The strength of this El Nino is one of many factors we'll have to watch. Sometimes when El Nino is this strong, it pushes the southern branch of the Jet Stream a few hundred miles south, giving us nothing. Matt Makens from KMGH did a really good blog yesterday, including the position of the southern Jet. As we know, this is critical to our Front Range snowfall. If it's off by even 50 miles, it makes a huge difference.

What we can (and will) do, is watch. Every meteorologist in the state has their eyes on what this strong of an El Nino will mean for Colorado. We're wanting to record and try to predict it. But keep in mind, there are other atmospheric patterns we have to consider. The "biggies" are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The other smaller factors are local terrain, local surface wind vectors, dew point, temperature, localized cold-air Jet support and upper-level winds. The Madden-Julian oscillation happens faster than El Nino/La Nina or ENSO. MJO has an effect on mid-latitude temperatures.

You can see, there is a lot that goes into making a big snowstorm. It's not just El Nino. Of course, now we have to add in the effects of Human intervention and what some meteorologists call Global Warming. If it's too warm over the northern Pacific, we end up with a high pressure ridge and cold, dry weather. That's why we are watching temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska now.

As you may have already seen, it's a big picture thing that has to be considered in order for us to narrow things down to our smaller Front Range picture. You've seen my general predictions above, which is based on climate history during a strong El Nino year. This particular El Nino is almost in the "super" category, or very strong. We are all going to be tracking things and making very good observations this year to see how we do with the coming Winter. I'm actually looking forward to it, because no two El Nino Winters are ever the same for Colorado. We hope for major snowfall. We may end up cold and dry. And, as climate-change continues, that is going to have to be factored in.