USC vs. Stanford: Who has the edge?

This touchdown catch sealed USC's fate at the Coliseum on a historic night in October 2007. TEXT BY MICHAEL LEV, THE REGISTER; PHOTO BY PAUL RODRIGUEZ, THE REGISTER

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OFFENSE

Stanford has achieved the balance USC has been seeking. Senior tailback Toby Gerhart leads the Pac-10 in rushing (135.2 ypg), and redshirt freshman quarterback Andrew Luck (above) paces the conference in passing efficiency (153.1 rating). In its past three games, the Cardinal has averaged 40.7 points, including 51 in last week's upset of Oregon. The Trojans offense has produced just 10 points in its past six quarters and continues to be plagued by penalties and a low third-down percentage. With the receiving corps banged up, USC needs big performances out of tailbacks Joe McKnight and Allen Bradford in support of freshman QB Matt Barkley.

LEV'S EDGE: STANFORD TEXT BY MICHAEL LEV, THE REGISTER; AP PHOTO

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DEFENSE

USC's defense rediscovered its form last week at Arizona State after enduring a midseason slump. Most encouraging: The unit produced four takeaways after having just 10 in the first eight games. Safety Will Harris (26) had a pair of interceptions and will play a key role this week in run support against Gerhart. Stanford has been involved in several shootouts this season and ranks eighth in the Pac-10 in scoring defense (24.6 ppg). Senior LB Clinton Snyder, the Cardinal's leading tackler, is out for the season. Sophomore DE Thomas Keiser is second in the Pac-10 in tackles for loss (12) and third in sacks (7).

LEV'S EDGE: USC TEXT BY MICHAEL LEV, THE REGISTER; AP PHOTO

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SPECIAL TEAMS

Stanford has one of the nation's premier return specialists in sophomore Chris Owusu (above left), who has returned three kickoffs for touchdowns and averages 36.0 yards per return. USC's kickoff coverage team has allowed a return of at least 44 yards in each of the past three games. The Trojans' dynamic punt returner, Damian Williams, won't play because of a high ankle sprain. Replacement McKnight is a big-play threat as well, but he isn't as sure-handed. Like USC kicker Jordan Congdon, Stanford's Nate Whitaker is no sure thing from 40 yards out and beyond (4 of 8).

LEV'S EDGE: STANFORD TEXT BY MICHAEL LEV, THE REGISTER; AP PHOTO

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COACHING

Third-year coach Jim Harbaugh has the Cardinal eligible for a bowl game for the first time since 2001. Stanford has improved steadily on his watch, going from 4-8 to 5-7 to 6-3. Harbaugh also is the only coach to have beaten USC's Pete Carroll at the Coliseum since '01. All of that is impressive, but it doesn't trump Carroll's résumé. His November reign is unparalleled (28-0), and his defensive tweaks worked wonders at Arizona State. Jeremy Bates is learning what Steve Sarkisian went through as USC's play-caller, hearing it from fans who still haven't gotten over Norm Chow's departure.

LEV'S EDGE: USC TEXT BY MICHAEL LEV, THE REGISTER; AP PHOTO

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INTANGIBLES

It's homecoming in more ways than one for USC, which has played just three of its first nine games at the Coliseum and last played there Oct. 24. The Trojans are unbeaten at home since the Cardinal upset them in '07. Returning home can be a mixed blessing, though: Having the crowd on your side is comforting, but USC must guard against feeling too relaxed. Stanford comes in confident after beating Oregon but is vulnerable to the post-big-victory letdown that has plagued several Pac-10 teams this season.

LEV'S EDGE: USC TEXT BY MICHAEL LEV, THE REGISTER; PHOTO BY ARMANDO BROWN, FOR THE REGISTER

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MATCHUP TO WATCH

They won't be on the field at the same time, except for warmups and postgame handshakes, but rising-star quarterbacks Luck and Barkley (7) are destined to face off multiple times “ and be the subject of chat-room and barroom debates for years to come. Luck, who had the benefit of a redshirt year, is superior statistically, boasting a better rating (153.1 vs. 135.1), completion percentage (58.3 vs. 56.6) and TD-INT ratio (11-3 vs. 10-7). Barkley has the edge in one critical area, though: winning percentage. Barkley is 7-1 as a starter, Luck 6-3. All three of Luck's losses have come on the road. TEXT BY MICHAEL LEV, THE REGISTER; AP PHOTO

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PREDICTION

This won't be easy for USC, which has a ton of injuries (the Trojans really will miss WR-PR Williams, above) and hasn't put together a complete game since beating Cal on Oct. 10. Stanford has a deluxe, multidimensional offense and proved its legitimacy by beating the Oregon team that clubbed USC the week before. But the Cardinal's average-at-best defense could be just the salve the Trojans' inconsistent offense has been seeking. Look for USC to survive, heal up during a bye the following week and gear up for a finishing kick that should earn an eight consecutive BCS bowl berth.

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