Lightning Is No Match For This System That Can Predict Bolts Before They Strike

Lightning illuminates the sky above the Kibbie Dome and the University of Idaho in Moscow, Idaho, Sunday, Aug. 28, 2011. The lightning storm could have sparked new fires in the area Sunday night. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

Doppler radar and satellite imagery changed the way we look at the weather. We take these incredible technological advancements for granted today, but our parents and grandparents often had no way of knowing dangerous weather was nearby until it was too late. You can watch a storm coming at you on radar and even see lightning strikes plotted on a map in real time, but what about predicting where lightning will strike next? Predicting lightning has long been thought impossible, but one company disagrees—has the track record to back it up.

There are vast networks of sensors around the world that can detect lightning strikes as they happen, but a Florida-based company called Thor Guard produces technology and software to predict lightning before it has a chance to strike. Since its founding in 1973, the company has sold and deployed sensors that measure electrostatic charges in the atmosphere and in the ground. The equipment then uses this data to determine if the area in range of the sensor is at immediate risk for a lightning strike.

“We cannot tell you exactly where a lightning strike will occur,” company president Bob Dugan said over the phone earlier this week, but Thor Guard can tell you when atmospheric conditions within several miles of the sensors are ripe for lightning strikes to occur. When Thor Guard’s sensors indicate that a lightning strike is possible within range, a loud horn and strobe lights alert anyone nearby to seek shelter immediately. The system can work for just one location or include several sensors and remote horns working together to keep watch over large spaces like public parks or entire school districts.

Dugan points to the vast array of clients who use Thor Guard's systems to protect their properties as proof that the system works as advertised. The list includes public schools and colleges, numerous airports, the United States Golf Association, several NFL teams, and coming soon, a system that covers 90 golf courses around Chicago, Illinois. Dugan said that out of more than 7,000 locations around the world that use the company’s lightning prediction system, 99.8 percent have retained their systems. If the system produced false alerts or missed strikes, Dugan said, “we wouldn’t retain so many customers.”

One of the greatest risks with lightning isn’t always the storm above you, but rather the storm far enough away that you pay it no mind. Lightning can strike dozens of miles away from a storm where skies might be perfectly clear. These bolts from the blue, as they’re known, are especially deadly because you don’t see them coming. Thor Guard is reportedly able to predict these sudden strikes because it can detect electrostatic changes even when the storm is nowhere to be seen.

Dugan pointed to a specific client whose innovative use of Thor Guard will help keep golfers safe. The Hong Kong Golf Club is in the process of installing one of these lightning prediction systems at its facilities, where they’ve chosen to integrate the lightning warnings into the interactive screens on each of the club’s golf carts. The first lightning alert will physically stop the vehicle and require the driver to acknowledge the alert before allowing the cart to continue driving. If the system goes to “red alert,” however, the cart will stop tracking a player’s progress and force them to return to the clubhouse. The network even tracks which golf carts acknowledge the alerts, Dugan said, so players can’t claim ignorance if they choose to continue golfing despite the danger.

Sometimes Thor Guard gives people who are outdoors peace of mind to continue on with their activities. Dugan described how Thor Guard watched over the 2014 U.S. Women’s Open in Pinehurst, North Carolina, while lightning-producing storms were within ten miles of the golf course on two separate days. On each thunderstorm day, Thor Guard didn’t detect dangerous energy levels at the course until late in the afternoon, allowing nearly two full days of play when activities would have otherwise been cancelled using radar and lightning detection systems alone.

The system could even help predict severe thunderstorms and tornadoes one day. “It will be easier for us to predict a tornado—and this is crazy talk—than it is to predict lightning,” Dugan said, explaining that tornadoes produce distinct electrostatic profiles when they pass close to one of the Thor Guard sensors. The company is working on the next generation of sensors that could help predict not only the track of a tornado already on the ground, but one that hasn’t formed yet. “If it’s within ten to twelve miles and it’s cooking, so to speak, if the profile’s right, we’re going to tell you before it drops.”

Even without the future severe thunderstorm and tornado prediction components of Thor Guard, the system seems to be based on solid ground and its customers, like public parks and universities, appear to take the products to heart. It’s easy to see why. The number of reported lightning deaths has dropped precipitously since the 1940s. On average, nearly 330 people were killed by lightning between 1940 and 1949. That statistic has plummeted to an average of 30 lightning-related fatalities per year today, but even one fatality is too many when it comes to something as simple as lightning safety. Utilizing Doppler weather radar and common sense will always greatly reduce the danger posed by an approaching thunderstorm, but a little aural help from a system of dedicated sensors gives participating communities an added layer of protection.