Tag: Bid Stealing

We are starting to gain some clarity on which teams will be in the field. Some conference tournaments have begun and auto-bids will begin to be claimed this weekend.

Tournament Locks

These teams are in the tournament, regardless of what happens the rest of the way

1

Villanova

Big East

2

Kansas

Big 12

3

Gonzaga

West Coast

4

Kentucky

Southeastern

5

Oregon

Pacific-12

6

Butler

Big East

7

UCLA

Pacific-12

8

Florida

Southeastern

9

Arizona

Pacific-12

10

Louisville

Atlantic Coast

11

North Carolina

Atlantic Coast

12

Baylor

Big 12

13

Purdue

Big Ten

14

SMU

American

15

Duke

Atlantic Coast

16

Cincinnati

American

17

Florida St

Atlantic Coast

18

St Mary’s CA

West Coast

19

Creighton

Big East

20

Minnesota

Big Ten

21

West Virginia

Big 12

22

Virginia

Atlantic Coast

23

Wisconsin

Big Ten

24

Wichita St

Missouri Valley

25

Maryland

Big Ten

26

Notre Dame

Atlantic Coast

27

Iowa St

Big 12

28

Oklahoma St

Big 12

29

South Carolina

Southeastern

30

Dayton

Atlantic 10

31

Arkansas

Southeastern

32

MTSU

Conference USA

33

VA Commonwealth

Atlantic 10

1 Win Away

These teams are super close to punching their ticket, one more win should do it. Bid stealing may become a concern without getting another win

34

Illinois St

Missouri Valley

35

Virginia Tech

Atlantic Coast

36

Miami FL

Atlantic Coast

37

Xavier

Big East

38

Michigan

Big Ten

39

Michigan St

Big Ten

40

Nevada

Mountain West

41

USC

Pacific-12

42

Northwestern

Big Ten

Remaining Contenders

These teams can still get an at-large bid, but they’ll need a few more wins and hope for minimal bid stealing in conference tournaments. The teams further down this list need to make the deepest conference tournament runs to secure a bid, and those not in a power conference very likely need to earn an auto bid to truly feel safe.

The bracket is starting to settle into form this late in the season, with minimal day-to-day fluctuation. We can start to draw conclusions on which teams are already in, which are still in contention, and how many bid-stealing conferences are out there. The field is comprised of 32 automatic bids (from conference tournament champions) and 36 at-large bids.

Tournament Locks

The following 25 teams have already done enough to warrant an at-large bid. Even if each of them were to not win again in the regular season, they would still be selected into the field:

1

Villanova

Big East

2

Gonzaga

West Coast

3

Kansas

Big 12

4

Baylor

Big 12

5

Oregon

Pacific-12

6

Arizona

Pacific-12

7

Kentucky

Southeastern

8

Louisville

Atlantic Coast

9

Florida

Southeastern

10

Duke

Atlantic Coast

11

Butler

Big East

12

North Carolina

Atlantic Coast

13

Florida St

Atlantic Coast

14

Purdue

Big Ten

15

Cincinnati

American

16

UCLA

Pacific-12

17

Maryland

Big Ten

18

Creighton

Big East

19

SMU

American

20

Wisconsin

Big Ten

21

St Mary’s CA

West Coast

22

West Virginia

Big 12

23

Notre Dame

Atlantic Coast

24

Minnesota

Big Ten

25

Wichita St

Missouri Valley

1 or 2 wins Away

This next group of 8 will be in the field, barring a monumental collapse down the stretch:

26

Virginia

Atlantic Coast

27

MTSU

Conference USA

28

VA Commonwealth

Atlantic 10

29

Xavier

Big East

30

South Carolina

Southeastern

31

USC

Pacific-12

32

Dayton

Atlantic 10

33

Northwestern

Big Ten

Remaining contenders

This next group is fighting for the few remaining at-large bids and hoping that the teams in the two groups above them grab all 11 auto-bids in their respective conference tournaments. Some of these teams may be able to sneak in with as few as two more wins, but would be well-served to rack up as many as possible down the stretch to avoid reliance on winning the conference tournament:

34

Illinois St

Missouri Valley

35

Oklahoma St

Big 12

36

Arkansas

Southeastern

37

Iowa St

Big 12

38

Nevada

Mountain West

39

Virginia Tech

Atlantic Coast

40

Valparaiso

Horizon

41

Michigan

Big Ten

42

California

Pacific-12

43

Miami FL

Atlantic Coast

44

Michigan St

Big Ten

45

Akron

Mid-American

46

Marquette

Big East

47

Kansas St

Big 12

48

Houston

American

49

Seton Hall

Big East

50

UNC Wilmington

Colonial

51

Georgetown

Big East

52

Tennessee

Southeastern

53

Providence

Big East

54

Rhode Island

Atlantic 10

55

Boise St

Mountain West

56

New Mexico St

WAC

57

Vanderbilt

Southeastern

58

Pittsburgh

Atlantic Coast

59

TCU

Big 12

60

Clemson

Atlantic Coast

61

Illinois

Big Ten

62

Georgia

Southeastern

Any team not listed as one of the 62 above will need to win their conference tournament in order to make the field.

Bid-Stealers

Some conferences have teams that would qualify for an at-large if they were to miss out on an auto-bid. This includes the following:

1

Big East

2

West Coast

3

Big 12

4

Pacific-12

5

Southeastern

6

Atlantic Coast

7

Big Ten

8

American

9

Missouri Valley

10

Conference USA

11

Atlantic 10

The top 36 teams above should feel pretty safe even if they don’t win their conference tournament, but outside the top 36 and bid-stealing starts to play a factor. The most important conference tournaments to pay attention to are:

West Coast: Gonzaga or St. Mary’s needs to win this auto-bid to avoid a certain stolen bid.

Conference USA: Middle Tennessee must earn the auto-bid; nobody else in the conference is remotely close to an at-large and the Blue Raiders have all but locked up their at-large.

American: It would be helpful for all if SMU or Cincinnati earns this auto-bid. Houston wouldn’t be bad necessarily, but anyone else would be a disaster for bubble teams.

Missouri Valley: Wichita St is definitely in and Illinois St is very likely in; you want one of these two to get the auto-bid if your team is on the bubble.

Atlantic 10: VCU and Dayton are near-locks for an at-large, so it’d be easiest if one of them earns the A10 auto-bid. Rhode Island is close, so it wouldn’t be that bad if they earned it, but nobody else is in contention for an at-large.

The 6 major conference tournaments are important to keep an eye on, but with so many at-large contenders it is much less likely that a bid is stolen from those.