The race is on between two entirely different sets of polling turnout models. One says the electorate will look like the wave election of 2008 that swept Obama into office with a seven-percent turnout election. Another says the electorate will look more like 2004, when neither party enjoyed an advantage. Here are eight reasons my money's on the 2004 model and here are more polls backing that up:

OHIO:

Republican pollster Citizens United show Romney up in Ohio 49-46% .

WISCONSIN:

Citizens United has Romney trailing by only two in Wisconsin, 49-47% and a new WI poll from Rasmussen shows the race tied at 49%. We know Wisconsin is close, because both candidates are spending precious time there in the closing days of the campaign.

There's even a juiced Marist Poll showing Obama only up 3 in the Dairy State. Last week, Marist had Obama up 6. Their skew is D+5. 2008 was D+6 and 2010 was R+1. So Marist is awfully optimistic about Obama's turnout advantage. Regardless, Romney has some real momentum there.

In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points.

COLORADO:

Today, Rasmussen has Romney up 3 in Colorado, 50-47%.

IOWA:

Rasmussen has Romney ahead in Iowa by 1, 49-48%. Last week, Rasmussen had the race tied. A University of Hawkeye poll also shows Romney up a bit in Iowa. A new Marist poll has Obama up in Iowa, but it's looking like an outlier. Marist almost always shows Obama with better margins than other pollsters. Which means

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

that when a pro-Obama pollster like Marist shows Romney only down 2 in New Hampshire (49-47%), that's good news, especially with respect to momentum. In September, Obama was up 7.

i am visiting my parents in San Jose, California from the Central Valley... all election season i have not seen a single presidential ad, and being that i live in California, i didn’t expect to... but tonight while watching Blue Bloods, an anti-Obama ad aired... it was about the “new normal...” Obama’s failed economy... i am just surprised that it’s playing here in the very liberal SF Bay Area...

on the way home from work tonight the traffic on I405 going N through Kirkland was backed up due to No on 74 supporters on the 70th St overpass waving signs. 74 is the ‘Gaie’ Marriage proposal on the WA ballot. there must have been a couple hundred people out showing opposition. only a dozen or so supporters were there. clearly there is a higher level of interest on the part of conservatives here in urban WA than has been evident in a while.

8
posted on 11/02/2012 10:40:49 PM PDT
by RitchieAprile
(working at the car wash..working at the car wash now.)

“I405 going N through Kirkland was backed up due to No on 74 supporters on the 70th St overpass waving signs.”

That is about two blocks from my house. I cross that over pass walk way to work and those guys are out there all day. I think that they are from the Ukrainian church. I always thank them.

Seems like they get some honks, too.

But, I hear the same sex marriage measure looks like it will pass.

Really makes me think that we need to get our act together in Western Washington and create some kind of organization that is well funded to promote family and traditional values. Then maybe we could start winning some of these things.

Washington state became the first political body in the history of the world to legalize baby killing abortions by public vote.

Either that or we are doomed as a society.

12
posted on 11/02/2012 10:51:11 PM PDT
by garjog
(We do not want another four more years of the last four years.)

I think we win OH, VA, MT, NE, MO, and (based on last night's poll, PA. We are trailing now in IN--- should have been a gimme--- and will lose te ME seat. That's a net gain of four. WI is too close right now, and McMahoh needs a boost to win CT.

MD, MI, NV,, TX,& AZ are all holds for the current party.

Am I forgetting Hawaii? That could be interesting.

20
posted on 11/03/2012 3:07:00 AM PDT
by LS
("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))

Thanks LS I think WI, my next door neighbor, will go for the Repubs the conservatives are just really excited to vote out there. Also I would not be surprised if MO turned out to be a shocker with Akin. Lets hope for the best and pray for the worst!

Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.