In January Apricus showed signs of life after a steady six month decline in share price from the 2's. A sharp spike from the lows followed by pullback and consolidation seemed to suggest another move upward would be forthcoming. I flagged that green thumb as a short-termer, since I really don't see any justification for a sustained rebound in the stock. In this case, however, I left points on the table when I closed my green thumb so I'll return to see if I can retrieve them going the other direction.

The only thing that could justify much increase in Apricus's valuation in the short term would be a buyout of the company to acquire control of Vitaros. While this is unlikely, it's not out of the question given recent surprising acquisitions for marketed niche products like Zecuity and Northera. With every notch that Apricus's share price climbs, a buyout becomes less likely and risk/reward tilts in the wrong direction. A much more likely outcome is more distressed financings and a drop in share price below 1.

Name reputation alone makes sure founder gets only the best students and the brightest researchers to then turn over the best and brightest products. To then be bought out for more than enough to make us the (you get the idea) profit.

Shorting a bunch of rickety-financed biotechs that have run up for no reason. Yes, I expect one to pop, and don't know which one, but I expect that most will fail outright, and the group as a whole will fail to match the S&P.

Apricus's unique NexACT technology could prove to be very valuable, both from their own drugs and out-licensing to other companies to use. The company has a large arsenal of drugs covering a wide array of health issues. More importantly Apricus's first approved drug, Vitaros, could be a huge winner in the large ED market. It looks as if the company has turned a corner.

Apricus retains a very innovative core technology called NexACT. This can be blended with already known and effective treatments. NexACT helps these compounds be better absorbed in the body and allows multiple routes of delivery. With an already approved drug, Vitaros, the company has a proven and clinically validated technology it will leverage and monetize.