Assessing Colin Kaepernick's Marketability Before The National Anthem Blow-Up

As the NFL preseason presses on, the voices questioning why Colin Kaepernick has not landed a job have only grown stronger. Among these voices, it is a foregone conclusion that the national anthem controversy that arose a year ago is the major impediment to his employment. When Baltimore's and Miami's quarterbacks suffered injuries and Kaepernick's phone didn't ring, the criticism grew especially loud.

I thought that I would turn back time and evaluate attitudes toward Kaepernick before any of the anthem controversy arose. How attractive would Kaepernick have been to other teams in July 2016?

Kaepernick's supporters seem to always have in mind the magical 2012 and 2013 seasons for the young quarterback. He replaced Alex Smith early in the 2012 season and started 13 games, finishing with a passer rating that ranked seventh and a QBR rating (ESPN's more complex quarterbacking metric) that ranked fourth (if included among "qualified" quarterbacks). He then exploded in the playoffs, leading the 49ers to the Super Bowl while passing for nearly 800 yards and rushing for 264 in three games.

His stellar performances carried over into the 2013 regular season, which he finished in the top 10 in Passer Rating and QBR while leading San Francisco to a 12-4 mark. The playoffs, however, foreshadowed a downturn in his fortunes. He ran for a sizable number of yards, but his passing yards and completion percentage fell way off, and his interception total matched his touchdowns pass total. The Seahawks defeated the 49ers in the NFC Championship game, leaving a sour taste after an otherwise memorable season.

The switch fully flipped in 2014, with Kaepernick's playoff downturn from the previous year accelerating midway through the season. Over the next two years, he ranked 20th and 31st in passer rating and 12th and 30th in QBR, including a few especially poor outings. After going 23-7-1 in the previous two seasons, he went 11-14 as a starter in 2014 and 2015.

The decline in his performances began to be dissected widely and in great detail during the latter part of the 2014 season, across a wide variety of sources. A December 2014 Rolling Stone article asked, "Are Robert Griffin III and Colin Kaepernick One-Hit Wonders?" Opposing players were calling him a "chump," and fans were burning his jersey.

Colin Kaepernick is sacked by the Rams in one of his worst performances of the 2015 season. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

Along with his diminishing performance, these articles related how Kaepernick displayed a growing childishness and distance from teammates. Reports noted his isolation in the locker room and how veteran tight end Vernon Davis “was among those sick of Kap walking around team headquarters with headphones on all day." During the season, Kaepernick received a fine over an allegation that he used inappropriate language, and the NFL also fined him for wearing headphones promoting his sponsor rather than a league sponsor during official interviews. The general feeling was summed up by journalist Jason Whitlock, who tweeted that "Kaepernick can keep focusing on tattoos and his abs. He's torching his football career."