Question

You are responsible for scheduling a construction project to build a convention center. In order to avoid big trouble, you will need the concrete to be placed before July 27 and for the financing to be arranged before August 6. Based on your experience and that of others, using subjective probability, you have fixed probabilities of 0.83 and 0.91 for these two events, respectively. Assume also that you have a 96% chance of meeting one deadline or the other (or both).
a. Find the probability of “big trouble.”
b. Are these events mutually exclusive? How do you know?
c. Are these events independent? How do you know?