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Wednesday, February 19, 2014

The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. The bears need to keep price below 1841 to get the 8 MA to curl downwards. Bears got nothing until the negative 8/34 cross occurs so watch the pink circles. The bulls have maintained the positive cross for the last 8 days. Expectation would be for the SPX to roll over to the downside moving forward as highlighted yesterday. Note thestandard deviation bands squeezing in tight ready to launch a move either violently up, or violently down. The last three squeezes were all bullish. Is it the bears turn?Price is battling in the 1837-1843 resistance gauntlet zone and had tested 1843 several times yesterday without being able to burst up through. Bulls will jump to 1848-1851 if they move up through 1843. Bears need to push lower under 1835-1837 to prove they held the bulls at bay at the 1837-1843 resistance and now plan to begin the downside again.Oddly, both the SPX and VIX were up yesterday so today we find out which one was wrong. Bulls must keep the VIX under 14, otherwise, the bears will push equities lower the further higher the VIX moves. JJC (copper) 39.92 is another important bull-bear line in the sand. Bulls win above JJC 39.92. Bears win below JJC 39.92. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.Note Added 10:05 AM: Bulls are relentless pushing the SPX higher to test the critical 1843 resistance for the sixth time over the last day. How many chances does it get? VIX is above 14 creating market negativity but was above the important 200-day MA at 14.59 only to pull back under. Bears need to push VIX above 14.59. Bulls holding the line with copper keeping JJC above 39.92.The band squeeze highlighted above is extremely tight now so the SPX is going to jump sharply one way or the other and price then goes either to 1870-1880 or 1800-1810. Lots of drama.Note Added 10:11 AM: Huge spike above the 1843 resistance, on the seventh try, piercing the 1837-1843 gauntlet to the upside. SPX shoots higher to HOD at 1844.69 in a heartbeat. VIX collapses lower down to 14.22. It is surprising to see the upside spike considering the chart set-up above but the bulls look like they want to run to the 1848-1851 all-time highs.Note Added 10:24 AM: Dollar/yen 102.25. Banzai!! The BOJ rides to the rescue to weaken the yen and pump the stock market higher.SPX HOD 1846.44 running 3-1/2 points higher in ten minutes time once it broke up through 1843 R. The bulls may want to keep price at the all-time closing high at 1848.38 until the FOMC Minutes this afternoon. The all-time intraday high is 1850.84.Note Added 10:49 AM: Interestingly, the SPX came up to fill the 1845-ish gap on the daily chart from the third week of January to button up the top side.Note Added 3:18 PM: The bulls ran out of gas right when they started to break out to the upside. The SPX falls back through the 1843 support, then through the 1835-1837 support. Now the bears are happy since they have held the 1837-1843 resistance gauntlet after all and the 8 MA crosses under the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart above signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead.Can the bears hold the negativity into the closing bell? VIX is well elevated at 15.12.JJC (copper) lost the important 39.92 level although only about 8 pennies below. SPX is now printing the lows of the day with a 1830 handle.The dollar/yen ran higher well above 102.30 today so the weaker yen kept equities buoyant but the yen is strengthening again and the dollar/yen is now drifting lower to 102.25. Bears need this far lower and under 102 to gain downside traction but the softness in the dollar/yen aids the market selling. The circus continues.

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