On this blog you'll find a daily analysis of the forecast of the surf, windsurf, kitesurf and foiling conditions in Maui.
Email me if you need a Maui surf guide or a surf, SUP, SUP foil, prone foil or wind foil lesson. I've been teaching water sports since 2001.

Thursday, July 19, 2018

Thursday 7 19 18 morning call

A shortboard, a SUP foiling and a windsurfing session for me yesterday. The waves in Lahaina were delightful again. Here's young surfing star Ocean Macedo enjoying some cross stepping on a Wave Storm.

This is young Annie Reickert looking down the line in all her elegance and beauty.

Here she starts to lean into the cut back.

And here you can see that the weight has subtly shifted on the front foot That is necessary as the foils accelerate out of the turns and would want to come out of the water otherwise.

When I got back to the north shore around 2pm, Pavillions was kind of pumping. This is Tanner Hendrickson.

And this looks like Justin Patao.

I have a new SUP foiling board (will talk about it soon), and I just added the footstraps (I'm a big fan of the stick on inserts), so I prolonged my SUP foiling session on the Lahaina waves until I found the sweet spot for them. Downwinder conditions on the north shore were pretty epic, but I had not enough juice at that point, so I wisely took a nap instead and went windsurfing afterwards. My desire of learning the downwinders on the SUP foil is there, but I'm not scarifying any possible fun to it. I'll learn when there's no waves on the south shore.

Jeremy Riggs was out there instead as always and dropped in some bombs on his two men canoe (notice the spare paddle attached to the iako).

3am significant buoy readingsSouth shoreW
2.7ft @ 15s from 142° (SE)

SW
2.8ft @ 17s from 139° (SE)

SE
1.7ft @ 13s from 183° (S)

Barbers
1.6ft @ 13s from 184° (S)

1.3ft @ 20s from 177° (S)

1.2ft @ 16s from 189° (S)

Multiple energies at Barbers, which the reflection of an intricate map of fetches that happened in the Southern hemisphere about a week ago. Below is the detailed description of them by my guru Pat Cadlwell and below that the collage of the maps of July 11, 12, 13 and 14 that might help you follow it. The bottom line is: plenty waves till Tuesday. Unfortunately, not much after that, I have to add.

A series of low pressures S to SE of New Zealand 7/9-12 is expected to make overlapping events locally 7/18-21 from the SSW. The pattern of low pressure systems shifted east 7/13-16, leading to new overlapping events from more straight south locally 7/21-25.The first system had gales behind a front to near 45S to the SE of New Zealand 7/9-10 with seas 20-25 feet. Long-period forerunners arrived locally 7/17 and the event is peaking 7/18 centered near 190 degrees.The second pattern 7/10-11 was similar, with a low tracking east along 60S and gales behind a front pushing to 45S to the SE of New Zealand. Since it was acting upon existing seas, surf potential in Hawaii is greater. NOAA southern buoy 51002 shows an increase in the 16-19 second band 7/18. This event should be filled in on Thursday bringing breakers a notch above the summer average from 190 degrees.The third low pressure 7/11-12 was much stronger with storm-force winds and seas within 30-40 feet. However, it was closer to Antarctic and more zonal, or west to east in the fetch. JASON altimeter showed seas higher than predicted by Wave Watch III 7/12 at both 12 and 18Z for the portion closest to the Hawaii great circle route along 195 degrees. This system should have long- period forerunners arriving 7/19 with the peak above average on 7/20. It should slowly decline from 185-200 degrees into the weekend as new swell arrive.The jet stream trough east of New Zealand progressed east 7/13-17. A pair of low pressures gained strength at the eastern edge of the Hawaii swell window.The first one 7/13-14 had severe gales and broadened as the aim became more meridional just east of the Hawaii swell window. The fetch was broad with seas near 25 feet. It was close enough for angular spreading to bring swell locally. Long-period forerunners are due late on 7/20 locally from 180-190 degrees. It should peak on Saturday above average.The second 7/15-17 was much stronger, to hurricane-force. The low center tracked steadily east making for a brief period in the Hawaii swell window. But the large fetch and seas to 40 feet should allow ample swell to reach Hawaii through angular spreading.Extra-long wave periods within 20-25 seconds are expected to fill in locally 7/21 from 175-185 degrees. The event should climb above average Saturday night, peak Sunday, then slowly drop on Monday.

Overall, it should be a cracking day of surfing on the south shore, I'll report when I get there.

North shore
Pauwela
6.4ft @ 10s from 99° (E)

4.6ft @ 7s from 77° (ENE)

Pat Caldwell has some words also to describe what caused the uptick in the windswell: A tropical disturbance south of the Island of Hawaii 7/18 is tracking steadily east. In combination with the seasonally semi- permanent surface high pressure over the central to northeast Pacific, an area of fresh to strong breezes north of the disturbance to 24N has allowed the rough, above average surf locally 7/18. ASCAT satellite at 9 AM HST 7/18 shows strong wind NNE of the Big Island. The PacIOOS/CDIP Hilo buoy in the morning 7/18 climbed to 10 feet significant wave height.

The waves at Hookipa were up to head high at sunset yesterday. Should be similar and pumping all day today.

Wind map at noon.

North Pacific shows a fairly long windswell fetch.

South Pacific only shows a "blue" fetch, which means not aimed straight at us, but close enough to receive some angular spreading. Next week looking smaller than this current one on the south shore.

Plenty availability of studios and apts in Paia and the north shore.

About Me

Born and raised in Italy, I became an engineer and worked 11 years in the IT industry. Sick of that, in 2001 I wanted to take a year off and spend it in Maui, the best windsurfing spot in the world. Not only I'm still here (in Maui), but I also got into surfing. And the stoke is flying high. Life is too short to work 8 hours a day...