A study by Lux Research proposes the value of the 3D printing market will reach an astonishing USD$8.4B by the year 2025.

Last year's value was a mere USD$777M, suggesting a rise of USD$7.6B over the next twelve years. This is a compound annual growth rate of around 22%. That's big.

Lux Research indicates most of the growth will occur in manufacturing, rather than personal use, saying:

Over the longer term, 3D printing has potential to reshape the manufacturing ecosystem, but it will have the most impact in the near term for products that are made in small volumes, require high customization, and are more cost-tolerant.

They predict the consumer market will "remain a niche", predicting consumers will spend only USD$894M in 2025, up from USD$17M today. This is particularly bad news for MakerBot and Cubify, who have put all their beans into personal 3D printing.

We suspect the result could be very different, because the Lux Research report seems to assume that things (technology, software, processes and business models) will remain the same. We believe that if certain barriers are taken down, the growth of personal 3D printing could be significantly larger than they predict.