Comments on Links for 01-05-18TypePad2018-01-06T02:37:56ZMark Thomahttp://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/tag:typepad.com,2003:http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2018/01/links-for-01-05-18/comments/atom.xml/EMichael commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cde8e6970c2018-01-09T00:29:00Z2018-01-09T00:39:10ZEMichael"A matter of state policy" Perhaps in MMT world, but not this one. There is around $13 Trillion of consumer...<p>&quot;A matter of state policy&quot;</p>
<p>Perhaps in MMT world, but not this one.</p>
<p>There is around $13 Trillion of consumer debt alive in this country(I am not even going to think about business debt).</p>
<p>$9 Trillion is held by private citizens and various corps, and that percentage is at the lowest in my lifetime. </p>
<p>So again, tell me about state policy that does not exist, and will never exist in this country.</p>
<p>BTW, </p>
<p>&quot;Because credit system &quot; money&quot;<br />
Unlike commodity money<br />
is costless to produce&quot;</p>
<p>is pure bs. I have sold hundreds of millions of dollars of loans in my career.</p>
<p>I got cash. </p>
<p>OTOH, I wonder why banks paid off investors(not enough) for the banks fraud? </p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9437b0d970b2018-01-08T19:03:58Z2018-01-08T22:04:11ZFred C. DobbsOne lakh crores = US$15.38 Billion. https://www.quora.com/How-much-is-one-lakh-crore<p>One lakh crores = US$15.38 Billion. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.quora.com/How-much-is-one-lakh-crore" rel="nofollow">https://www.quora.com/How-much-is-one-lakh-crore</a></p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e6c8e7970d2018-01-08T19:00:33Z2018-01-08T22:04:11ZFred C. DobbsIndia’s dream of going cashless is just that… a dream https://qz.com/1127614 via @qzindia That darned demonetisation did rock the boat...<p>India’s dream of going cashless is just that…<br />
a dream <a href="https://qz.com/1127614" rel="nofollow">https://qz.com/1127614</a> via @qzindia</p>
<p>That darned demonetisation did rock the boat last November, but India’s love affair with cash is well and truly back on track.</p>
<p>In fact, the romance has returned with such vigour that the currency with the Indian public at the end of October 2017 stood at Rs15.48 lakh crore, the latest data available with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shows. That’s only about 9% less than the Rs16.98 lakh crore the public held on Oct. 14, 2016, only a few weeks before demonetisation. </p>
<p>(graph at link)</p>
<p>This is proof that the Narendra Modi government’s move to render two high-value currency notes illegal has done little to reduce India’s dependence on cash. On Nov. 08, 2016, the Rs500 and Rs1,000 notes accounted for 86% of the currency in circulation by value. The government’s key rationale for demonetisation was to curb the circulation of black money and making India’s economy less cash-dependent. </p>
<p>“Our dream is that there should be (a) cashless society. This is correct that 100% cashless society is never possible,” Modi said in his Mann Ki Baat radio programme on Nov. 27, 2016. “But we can make a start with less-cash society—then cashless society will not be a far-off destination.”</p>
<p>While the jury is still out on demonetisation’s overall efficacy, the government has stressed on the boost to digital transactions. But now even the growth in electronic payments is declining and back to the pre-currency ban levels. “The only long-term gain (of demonetisation) is probably the less use of cash. However, this push towards digitisation could have been done in a less dramatic and painful way,” Jayati Ghosh, professor at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, told Quartz in September. “Incentivising the customers to use plastic or digital money would have been more effective.”</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cdce71970c2018-01-08T18:02:37Z2018-01-08T22:04:11ZanneWhat strikes me as mattering lots more than the gossip aspects of the presidency is that this presidency has been...<p>What strikes me as mattering lots more than the gossip aspects of the presidency is that this presidency has been very, very ambitious and active in terms of policy. The country is being changed in terms of policy day by day, but many policy matters are lost sight of.</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cdcdeb970c2018-01-08T17:56:51Z2018-01-08T22:04:11ZFred C. DobbsStrong Economies Lift Presidents. Trump Seems an Exception. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/08/upshot/strong-economies-lift-presidents-trump-seems-an-exception.html NYT - Nate Cohn - Jan 8 The stock market has...<p>Strong Economies Lift Presidents. Trump Seems an Exception. <br />
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/08/upshot/strong-economies-lift-presidents-trump-seems-an-exception.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/08/upshot/strong-economies-lift-presidents-trump-seems-an-exception.html</a><br />
NYT - Nate Cohn - Jan 8</p>
<p>The stock market has surged. Unemployment is at 4.1 percent. ISIS has largely been vanquished from Iraq and Syria. </p>
<p>But despite it all, Donald J. Trump’s approval ratings are mired in the upper 30s. No president has had worse ratings at this stage of his term since modern polling began more than three-quarters of a century ago.</p>
<p>With President Trump starting the new year with a blizzard of tweets and fresh controversy seemingly every day, there are still debates about whether he is as weak as he looks. After all, he managed to win the presidency with terrible favorability ratings a little over a year ago. Analysts have understandably been cautious about assuming that his weak ratings will doom him or his party again.</p>
<p>But it seems clear that Mr. Trump’s approval ratings betray significant political weakness.</p>
<p>(scatter plot at link)</p>
<p>Trump Approval Badly Lags Economy</p>
<p>President Trump’s approval ratings are worse than those of any first-term president with an unemployment rate under 5 percent, and among the worst under any economic conditions. <br />
<br />
Net-presidential approval in first 16 quarters of presidency, versus average quarterly unemployment rate. Data since 1950.</p>
<p>Setting aside the question of how much credit first-year presidents deserve for a strong economy — they have less influence than you might think — President Trump’s ratings should be much better. A 4.1 percent unemployment rate, the lowest in 17 years, is more typically associated with a 60-plus-percent approval rating for a first-term president. </p>
<p>Lyndon Johnson is the only other first-term president in the era of modern polling with an approval rating under 50 percent while the jobless rate was below 5 percent. But this came after he’d already been president for about four years (having first finished out John F. Kennedy’s term) and as the Vietnam War began to drag down his presidency.</p>
<p>Mr. Trump started in a far worse position than other incoming presidents. His initial approval rating was in the low-to-mid 40s, while most presidents enter with an approval rating over 60 percent. It was fair to speculate that his approval ratings would gradually rise with the benefit of a strong economy. Perhaps he would even benefit from low expectations, as many suspected he did during the presidential campaign. </p>
<p>But by now the economy would have been expected to lift his approval rating into the 50s, based on an analysis of presidential approval and economic data going back to 1950. This is despite the tendency for presidents’ approval ratings to decline during their time in office. If the economy were to overcome Mr. Trump’s unpopularity and send his approval ratings up, you would think we would have started to see signs of it.</p>
<p>It is certainly possible that the economy — or other good news — will still lift his ratings. But it seems just as likely that Mr. Trump will continue to feel the burden of his time in office. On average, a first-term president’s approval rating drops by about a point per quarter after controlling for inflation and unemployment (and controlling for the large bump George W. Bush received after the Sept. 11 attacks).</p>
<p>Mr. Trump still has some of the advantages that helped him win despite low favorability ratings in 2016. He appears to maintain the support of his base and fairly high levels of Republican unity. Indeed, his favorability ratings are still higher than they were in the weeks heading into the 2016 election, when they were in the mid 30s. Many pollsters aren’t asking the favorability question anymore, but those that do find it roughly equal to his approval ratings (high 30s). </p>
<p>His approval ratings among voters might be higher than among all adults; noncitizens may take a survey but are ineligible to vote, and nonwhite and young voters tend to disapprove of the president but have low turnout rates. National data might not be entirely representative of relatively white battleground states and districts, either. </p>
<p>All of this helps explain why many analysts have been cautious about assessing Mr. Trump’s low approval ratings. If his ratings are as good or better today than they were when he won and when Republicans kept control of the Senate and the House, the argument goes, why shouldn’t they win again?</p>
<p>These points are worth keeping in mind, especially if Mr. Trump’s ratings were to tick back up into the 40s. But the big difference between today and 2016 is simple: Mr. Trump is now the president, and elections tend to be referendums on the party in power. A president’s approval rating is typically a very strong predictor of the results of presidential elections and even a helpful one in congressional elections. </p>
<p>Since 1950, no party has held the House through a midterm election when the president’s approval rating is less than 40 percent. The Republican Party’s considerable structural advantages in the House would at least give them a shot to survive this time, but the growing Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot and the G.O.P.’s weak showings in this year’s special congressional elections suggest that the president’s approval rating is weighing on the party in exactly the way one would expect.</p>
<p>And while Mr. Trump’s upset victory in 2016 — defying the pre-election polls that showed Hillary Clinton leading in key battleground states — has given him the sheen of invincibility, his victory was not impressive by most standards. </p>
<p>Fundamental-based models — without taking candidates into account — tended to show that the party out of power was a clear if narrow favorite to win in 2016: The pace of economic growth and President Obama’s approval rating were positives for the Democrats, but that wasn’t enough for the party to be favored because of the burden of seeking the presidency for a third consecutive term.</p>
<p>Mr. Trump had the added advantage of facing Mrs. Clinton, who was under F.B.I. investigation for most of the campaign and ended with the worst unfavorability ratings of any candidate who won a major party nomination other than Mr. Trump, according to Gallup. </p>
<p>Yet in the end, Mr. Trump lost the popular vote by two percentage points, with 46 percent of the vote. It was the second-worst showing since 1948 for the candidate of the party out of power against a party seeking at least a third straight presidential term (after Michael Dukakis in 1988). It was not necessarily a show of strength. </p>
<p>None of this is to say that Mr. Trump’s approval ratings can’t or won’t rise. But at some point, he’ll probably need them to.<br />
</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c943733e970b2018-01-08T17:32:43Z2018-01-08T22:04:11ZRC AKA Darryl, RonWhatever little joy that there is in Mudville now is because misery loves company.<p>Whatever little joy that there is in Mudville now is because misery loves company.</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cdcb59970c2018-01-08T17:25:47Z2018-01-08T17:27:46Zannehttp://voxeu.org/article/minimum-wages-world-s-largest-labour-market January 8, 2018 Minimum wages in the world’s largest labour market By Ernest Dautovic, Harald Hau, and Yi Huang...<p><a href="http://voxeu.org/article/minimum-wages-world-s-largest-labour-market" rel="nofollow">http://voxeu.org/article/minimum-wages-world-s-largest-labour-market</a></p>
<p>January 8, 2018</p>
<p>Minimum wages in the world’s largest labour market<br />
By Ernest Dautovic, Harald Hau, and Yi Huang</p>
<p>Minimum wage policies are controversial in developed and emerging economies alike. This column focuses on China, where minimum wage changes have been particularly frequent and heterogeneous across counties. Results show that Chinese low-income households fully spend their incremental income, with no differences in consumption behaviour across more or less financially constrained households. Only households without a child generally consume a lower proportion of their additional income.</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cdcb24970c2018-01-08T17:24:23Z2018-01-08T17:27:46Zannehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hobx January 15, 2018 Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for United States and United Kingdom, 2000-2017 (Indexed to 2000)<p><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hobx" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hobx</a></p>
<p>January 15, 2018</p>
<p>Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for United States and United Kingdom, 2000-2017</p>
<p>(Indexed to 2000)</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e6c0e5970d2018-01-08T17:19:29Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZanneI am wondering whether the America "first" stance taken by the president in foreign policy may actually make relying on...<p>I am wondering whether the America &quot;first&quot; stance taken by the president in foreign policy may actually make relying on dollar transactions internationally somewhat less frequent. May the dollar decline in relative value? Similarly, what of Brexit and the Pound? Will the Pound continue to lose value as Britain nears leaves the European Union?</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cdca68970c2018-01-08T17:13:19Z2018-01-08T17:27:46Zannehttp://voxeu.org/article/household-inequality-and-consumption-response-shocks January 4, 2018 Household inequality and the consumption response to aggregate real shocks By Gene Amromin, Mariacristina De Nardi,...<p><a href="http://voxeu.org/article/household-inequality-and-consumption-response-shocks" rel="nofollow">http://voxeu.org/article/household-inequality-and-consumption-response-shocks</a></p>
<p>January 4, 2018</p>
<p>Household inequality and the consumption response to aggregate real shocks<br />
By Gene Amromin, Mariacristina De Nardi, and Karl Schulze</p>
<p>A widening gap between rich and poor has been extensively documented for many countries and economies. This column explores how the wealth gap affects output and consumption changes in response to aggregate shocks. Lower- and higher-wealth households face different borrowing constraints, and have different marginal propensities to consume. Different levels of access to financial liquidity thus play a major role in the overall consumption dynamics during an economic downturn.</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cdca57970c2018-01-08T17:12:20Z2018-01-08T17:27:46Zannehttp://voxeu.org/article/geopolitics-international-currency-choice January 2, 2018 Mars or Mercury? The geopolitics of international currency choice By Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl, and Livia...<p><a href="http://voxeu.org/article/geopolitics-international-currency-choice" rel="nofollow">http://voxeu.org/article/geopolitics-international-currency-choice</a></p>
<p>January 2, 2018</p>
<p>Mars or Mercury? The geopolitics of international currency choice<br />
By Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl, and Livia Chiţu </p>
<p>Economists have provided detailed analyses of the economic basis of international currency status, but they have paid less attention to the geopolitical underpinnings. This column sheds light on the geopolitical premium enjoyed by the US thanks to its security alliances and ‘dollar diplomacy’.</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cdc8a5970c2018-01-08T16:54:44Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZRC AKA Darryl, RonThat said though, does not mean that this action by the Fed had not been entirely anticipated by several EV...<p>That said though, does not mean that this action by the Fed had not been entirely anticipated by several EV commenters years ago. All of us here have expressed the concern that the Fed would pull away the punch bowl before the wage increase party could really get going. Some of us have been certain that it would happen even more than just concerned that it might happen. Just when the bases are loaded and our best batter is up then Phillips will throw a curve and strike out mighty Casey. </p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e6bd99970d2018-01-08T16:46:27Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZRC AKA Darryl, RonOh, I totally agree with you, Dude, absolutely without reservation. The reasons that I gave Paine for "...So why move...<p>Oh, I totally agree with you, Dude, absolutely without reservation. </p>
<p>The reasons that I gave Paine for &quot;...So why move rates up from here at all ?&quot; were all awful reasons, terribly awful reasons to take policy actions. There is little worse than policy enacted to &quot;guard against the appearance of&quot; anything. Policy should be about substance rather than appearances. But worse yet when appearances are further qualified &quot;here and ready, always on the job, at the big bad Fed&quot; which means those appearances are meant as a pretense of efficacy rather than just a political accommodation, which would be bad enough, although one might construe that the latter would also apply given Republican control of the federal government. In any case, either excuse would be a bad basis for policy decisions. Finally, &quot;it amuses the confidence fairy&quot; can hardly be taken as anything other than pure cynicism. </p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9436d84970b2018-01-08T16:20:05Z2018-01-08T17:27:46Zannehttp://cepr.net/publications/op-eds-columns/big-tax-game-hunting-employer-side-payroll-taxes January 8, 2018 Big Tax Game Hunting: Employer-Side Payroll Taxes By Dean Baker The Republican Congress gave themselves and...<p><a href="http://cepr.net/publications/op-eds-columns/big-tax-game-hunting-employer-side-payroll-taxes" rel="nofollow">http://cepr.net/publications/op-eds-columns/big-tax-game-hunting-employer-side-payroll-taxes</a></p>
<p>January 8, 2018</p>
<p>Big Tax Game Hunting: Employer-Side Payroll Taxes<br />
By Dean Baker</p>
<p>The Republican Congress gave themselves and their contributors a huge Christmas present with the tax cut bill they pushed through at the end of last year. They decided to cover the costs in part by whacking Democratic states like California and New York, which have relatively high state and local taxes.</p>
<p>The big hit was limiting the amount of state and local taxes that could be deducted. As a result, many upper-middle-class families and rich families will be paying thousands more in taxes each year.</p>
<p>While most of these people probably can and should pay more in taxes, this tax increase was explicitly designed to make it more expensive for progressive states to provide services like health care and education to their people. In this context, it&#39;s time to take the gloves off. These states absolutely should look to fight back by finding ways to avoid the tax increase.</p>
<p>Fortunately, there is a way. States can look to replace much of their income tax with an employer-side payroll tax. This will effectively preserve the tax deductibility of the income tax and even extend this benefit to people who don&#39;t itemize.</p>
<p>To take a simple case, suppose that a state has a 5 percent flat income tax. A person earning $200,000 a year would pay $10,000 a year in taxes. Under the former system, this $10,000 was fully deductible from federal income taxes, under the theory that this was money they never saw: The state taxed it away.</p>
<p>Now, much of this could be taxable, since the new law limits total deductions for state and local taxes, including property taxes, to $10,000. Depending on how much this person paid in property taxes and other deductible taxes, they may be able to deduct little or none of the money they pay in state income taxes.</p>
<p>Suppose we replace the 5 percent income tax with a 5 percent employer-side payroll tax. The person&#39;s employer will now have to pay 5 percent of the worker&#39;s salary or $10,000 to the state.</p>
<p>Economists usually think that employer-side payroll taxes are taken pretty much dollar-for-dollar out of workers&#39; wages. The idea is that if an employer is willing to pay $200,000 to hire a worker, they don&#39;t especially care whether they are paying that money to the worker or to the government. If the company now has to pay the government a $10,000 payroll tax, they will look to lower the worker&#39;s pay to $190,000.</p>
<p>It is worth noting that this adjustment may not apply everywhere and typically is not going to happen immediately. In other words, we wouldn&#39;t expect that employers will suddenly cut their workers&#39; pay by 5 percent. Rather, workers might see smaller pay increases than would otherwise be the case so that after two or three years their pay ends up being 5 percent less than otherwise would have been the case. (Actually, since employers just got a big tax cut, it would be nice to see them eat some of this payroll tax and let workers enjoy some real wage gains.)</p>
<p>Anyhow, this matters for federal taxes, because after this adjustment takes place this worker would only have $190,000 of taxable income, rather than $200,000. This worker is left with the same amount of money after paying their state taxes as when they had the income tax, but their federal tax burden will be substantially less. If this person is in the 25 percent tax bracket, this little trick saves them $2,500 a year on their taxes.</p>
<p>This benefit even goes to people who don&#39;t itemize. Imagine a more middle-income person who earned $60,000 a year before the employer-side payroll tax was put into effect. They would see their taxable income fall to $57,000. If they are in the 22 percent tax bracket, they will save $660 a year from this switch.</p>
<p>There will be some complications from this policy. Many people work in one state and live in another. We would want to make sure that this means neither that they escape state taxation nor get taxed by two states. This will require some work, but it is a problem that already exists under the current system.</p>
<p>There also is a problem of preserving progressivity....</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9436c87970b2018-01-08T16:05:46Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZPaine Lee your graphs are a treasure You deserve material rewards<p>Lee your graphs are a treasure <br />
You deserve material rewards </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9436c7f970b2018-01-08T16:05:00Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZPaine Funding supply s a clearer label Then money supply Money is a stock Funding is a flow Funding in our...<p>Funding supply s a clearer label <br />
Then money supply </p>
<p>Money is a stock<br />
Funding is a flow<br />
Funding in our system is technically unconstrained <br />
Because credit system &quot; money&quot; <br />
Unlike commodity money<br />
is costless to produce </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9436c54970b2018-01-08T16:00:35Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZPaine Money supply is by act or omission or any combo of the two A matter of state policy Nothing limits...<p>Money supply is by act or omission <br />
or any combo of the two<br />
A matter of state policy<br />
Nothing limits the possible flow rate of credit <br />
But state action or inaction <br />
as Impure and complex as that becomes <br />
in today&#39;s hedge row pattern of institutional structure <br />
And it&#39;s self contradictory laws of motion </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9436b6e970b2018-01-08T15:49:08Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZPaine Wonderful passage This is Faust A lion in the house Trump L Why he's nothing But a roaring mouse<p>Wonderful passage </p>
<p>This is Faust <br />
A lion in the house </p>
<p>Trump L</p>
<p>Why he&#39;s nothing <br />
But a roaring mouse </p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cdbfa0970c2018-01-08T14:57:39Z2018-01-08T17:27:46Zannehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=gr5K January 30, 2017 M1 money supply for India, 2007-2017 (Percent change)<p><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=gr5K" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=gr5K</a></p>
<p>January 30, 2017</p>
<p>M1 money supply for India, 2007-2017</p>
<p>(Percent change)</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cdbf4b970c2018-01-08T14:52:05Z2018-01-08T17:27:46Zannehttp://www.measuringworth.com/datasets/exchangeglobal/result.php?year_source=1988&year_result=2016&countryE[]=Argentina Price of an American Dollar in Argentine Pesos, 1990-2017 Argentine Pesos 1990 ( 0.49) 1991 ( 0.95) (Dollar peg...<p><a href="http://www.measuringworth.com/datasets/exchangeglobal/result.php?year_source=1988&year_result=2016&countryE[]=Argentina" rel="nofollow">http://www.measuringworth.com/datasets/exchangeglobal/result.php?year_source=1988&amp;year_result=2016&amp;countryE[]=Argentina</a></p>
<p>Price of an American Dollar in Argentine Pesos, 1990-2017</p>
<p>Argentine Pesos</p>
<p>1990 ( 0.49)<br />
1991 ( 0.95) (Dollar peg begins)<br />
1992 ( 0.99)<br />
1993 ( 1.00) Clinton<br />
1994 ( 1.00)</p>
<p>1995 ( 1.00)<br />
1996 ( 1.00)<br />
1997 ( 1.00)<br />
1998 ( 1.00)<br />
1999 ( 1.00)</p>
<p>2000 ( 1.00)<br />
2001 ( 1.00) Bush<br />
2002 ( 3.06) (Dollar peg ends)<br />
2003 ( 2.90)<br />
2004 ( 2.92)</p>
<p>2005 ( 2.90)<br />
2006 ( 3.05)<br />
2007 ( 3.10)<br />
2008 ( 3.14)<br />
2009 ( 3.71) Obama</p>
<p>2010 ( 3.90)<br />
2011 ( 4.11)<br />
2012 ( 4.54)<br />
2013 ( 5.46)<br />
2014 ( 8.08)</p>
<p>2015 ( 9.23)<br />
2016 ( 14.76)</p>
<p>January 8</p>
<p>2018 ( 19.11) (High)</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e6b5d3970d2018-01-08T14:51:17Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZanneHaving recently listened to a Bloomberg report on the blossoming of the Argentine economy, brought about since December 2015 by...<p>Having recently listened to a Bloomberg report on the blossoming of the Argentine economy, brought about since December 2015 by a return to market principles under conservative president Mauricio Macri, I am finding a severe decline in value of the Argentine Peso. However, I can as yet not understand what is happening in Argentina:</p>
<p><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=gYq2" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=gYq2</a></p>
<p>January 15, 2017</p>
<p>Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for Argentina, 2007-2017</p>
<p>(Indexed to 2007)</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cdbdd3970c2018-01-08T14:33:09Z2018-01-08T17:27:46Zannehttps://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/06/opinion/looming-digital-meltdown.html January 6, 2018 The Looming Digital Meltdown By Zeynep Tufekci For computer security professionals, 2018 started with a bang....<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/06/opinion/looming-digital-meltdown.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/06/opinion/looming-digital-meltdown.html</a></p>
<p>January 6, 2018</p>
<p>The Looming Digital Meltdown<br />
By Zeynep Tufekci</p>
<p>For computer security professionals, 2018 started with a bang. A new class of security vulnerability — a variety of flaws that affect almost all major microprocessor chips, and that could enable hackers to steal information from personal computers as well as cloud computing services — was announced on Wednesday. The news prompted a rush of fixes, ruining the holiday vacations of system administrators worldwide.</p>
<p>For an ordinary computer user, there is not much to panic about right now. Just keep your software updated so you receive the fixes. And consider installing an ad-blocker like uBlock Origin to protect against ads that carry malware that could exploit these vulnerabilities. That is about all you can do.</p>
<p>However, as a citizen of a world in which digital technology is increasingly integrated into all objects — not just phones but also cars, baby monitors and so on — it is past time to panic.</p>
<p>We have built the digital world too rapidly. It was constructed layer upon layer, and many of the early layers were never meant to guard so many valuable things: our personal correspondence, our finances, the very infrastructure of our lives. Design shortcuts and other techniques for optimization — in particular, sacrificing security for speed or memory space — may have made sense when computers played a relatively small role in our lives. But those early layers are now emerging as enormous liabilities. The vulnerabilities announced last week have been around for decades, perhaps lurking unnoticed by anyone or perhaps long exploited.</p>
<p>Almost all modern microprocessors employ tricks to squeeze more performance out of a computer program. A common trick involves having the microprocessor predict what the program is about to do and start doing it before it has been asked to do it — say, fetching data from memory. In a way, modern microprocessors act like attentive butlers, pouring that second glass of wine before you knew you were going to ask for it.</p>
<p>But what if you weren’t going to ask for that wine? What if you were going to switch to port? No problem: The butler just dumps the mistaken glass and gets the port. Yes, some time has been wasted. But in the long run, as long as the overall amount of time gained by anticipating your needs exceeds the time lost, all is well.</p>
<p>Except all is not well. Imagine that you don’t want others to know about the details of the wine cellar. It turns out that by watching your butler’s movements, other people can infer a lot about the cellar. Information is revealed that would not have been had the butler patiently waited for each of your commands, rather than anticipating them. Almost all modern microprocessors make these butler movements, with their revealing traces, and hackers can take advantage.</p>
<p>There has been a rush to fortify our computing systems, and it may work for the moment. But at best, potential temporary fixes will entail a performance cost, since they involve rolling back strategies for optimizing performance. And since the problem is built into the hardware — billions of chips that cannot easily be replaced — fixing this class of problems may also be prohibitively expensive.</p>
<p>At worst, these fixes are too late. The vulnerabilities announced last week were found by three independent teams whose investigations converged on the same flaw at the same time. It is possible that less-responsible actors were also converging on this flaw and may have already succeeded in exploiting it.</p>
<p>Modern computing security is like a flimsy house that needs to be fundamentally rebuilt....</p>
<p><br />
Zeynep Tufekci, an associate professor at the School of Information and Library Science at the University of North Carolina.</p>Christopher H. commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c94366c6970b2018-01-08T14:30:09Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZChristopher H."Uncle can trigger a credit crunch by raising prudential standards And trigger a credit boom by llowering prudential standards What...<p>&quot;Uncle <br />
can trigger a credit crunch by raising prudential standards <br />
And trigger a credit boom by llowering prudential standards <br />
What more needs discussion&quot;</p>
<p>True but the Fed is always too tight with the interest rates mechanism and just focuses on short-term rates.</p>Christopher H. commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e6b44e970d2018-01-08T14:29:10Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZChristopher H.Maybe somewhat but I think the record shows that simply the Fed has always been too tight. Let's try it...<p>Maybe somewhat but I think the record shows that simply the Fed has always been too tight. Let&#39;s try it once where the Fed isn&#39;t too tight over fears of inflation or &quot;normalization&quot; ideology. Granted maybe it will take a revolution at the ballot box.</p>
<p>The Fed was much too tight during the housing bubbles collapse. It could have done much more but was raising rates and signaling obstinate tightening as the bubble deflated and then popped.</p>
<p>Just because it loosened later doesn&#39;t mean it didn&#39;t bungle the handling of the deflating bubble.</p>
<p>Likewise it did too little to counter the Republicans&#39; unprecedented fiscal austerity during the recovery and it began tightening much too early in 2013.</p>
<p>These are all plain historical facts staring us in the face but people ignore and deny them.</p>
<p>The Fed is always too tight and we see the results.</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c94365d2970b2018-01-08T14:15:02Z2018-01-08T17:27:46Zannehttps://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/07/technology/india-digital-money.html January 7, 2018 India Clings to Cash, Even as Tech Firms Push Digital Money By VINDU GOEL and SUHASINI...<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/07/technology/india-digital-money.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/07/technology/india-digital-money.html</a></p>
<p>January 7, 2018</p>
<p>India Clings to Cash, Even as Tech Firms Push Digital Money<br />
By VINDU GOEL and SUHASINI RAJ</p>
<p>ALIGARH, India — Signs and banners for Paytm, India’s biggest digital payments service, festoon Pooran Singh’s cellphone shop, where people drop in all day to add data or talk time to their prepaid phones.</p>
<p>Yet few of these people actually use Paytm at the store, which straddles two dusty streets in this sleepy north Indian city in which tractors jostle with cows for space on the narrow roads.</p>
<p>“People recharge in cash,” Mr. Singh said, after a young man handed him 20 rupees, about 32 cents, to top up his mother’s phone.</p>
<p>The scene in Mr. Singh’s shop underscores a persistent reality of India’s economy: People prefer cash for most routine transactions, despite intensive efforts by the government and global technology companies to lure them onto digital platforms.</p>
<p>India’s reluctance to give up paper money poses challenges for the firms that are vying to offer electronic payments, including local players like Paytm, which has received financing from the Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, and American tech companies, like Facebook, Google and PayPal.</p>
<p>“Cash is convenient,” said Caesar Sengupta, who oversees Google’s products for emerging markets. “It’s anonymous. You can use it everywhere.”</p>
<p>Even so, tech companies see India’s low rate of digital payments as an opportunity. They all cite China, where in just a few years, mobile payments became so popular that it is now difficult to get through the day with cash alone.</p>
<p>“In India, we’re going to see a similar rise,” Mr. Sengupta said in November, shortly after Google introduced Tez, a payments app for India.</p>
<p>One reason for tech companies’ optimism is that digital payments in India have increased over the past year. The value of transactions using digital wallets, the business on which Paytm was built, rose 64 percent from December 2016 to December 2017. Transactions made with the Unified Payments Interface, a government-backed technology used by Tez and many other mobile apps, went from virtually nothing a year ago to $2.1 billion last month.</p>
<p>Leading India’s budding payments shift are Paytm and its chief executive, Vijay Shekhar Sharma.</p>
<p>Mr. Sharma founded the company seven years ago as a way for cellphone users to pay their bills online. It is now India’s largest consumer-payments app, with 302 million account holders and 90 million active users.</p>
<p>Customers can use it to buy goods at physical stores, book movie or airline tickets, send money to each other or order items from Paytm’s online mall. A transaction requires a quick scan of a merchant’s bar code or a few taps on a smartphone, rivaling Apple Pay or Venmo in simplicity.</p>
<p>Mr. Sharma aspires to put his company at the center of Indians’ financial lives, and he has pledged to spend $1.9 billion over the next two years toward that goal.</p>
<p>“Our truest ambition is for Paytm to be known as the bank for this new-age, digital, mobile world,” he said in an interview at the company’s headquarters in Noida, just outside Delhi.</p>
<p>Merchants like Mr. Singh are crucial to Paytm’s plans.</p>
<p>The company pays Mr. Singh a bounty of 20 rupees for each of the eight or so customers he signs up each month, with additional payments if a newcomer continues to use the service. He earns an additional 18 rupees each time he verifies the identity of an existing Paytm user with his fingerprint scanner, a new requirement imposed by the government on all digital wallet companies.</p>
<p>Mr. Singh’s phone shop has also become a virtual A.T.M. for Paytm’s nascent banking division, which plans to turn 100,000 shops across India into mini-branches where customers can deposit and withdraw cash, get a loan and buy insurance policies.</p>
<p>“We really want to reach the underserved, underbanked customer,” said Renu Satti, who leads the Paytm bank.</p>
<p>Paytm’s strategy dovetails with the goals of India’s central government. Narendra Modi, who became prime minister in 2014, has sought to recast his country as “digital India,” and his government has heavily promoted cashless transactions....</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cdbcaa970c2018-01-08T14:09:56Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZFred C. DobbsIt's 100 percent true that the Trump presidency can be exhausting, but it's mostly because of Trump's penchant for controversy,...<p>It&#39;s 100 percent true that the Trump presidency can be exhausting, but it&#39;s mostly because of Trump&#39;s penchant for controversy, which he often stokes through his Twitter feed during off-hours. And Trump&#39;s Twitter habit only seems to have increased as a portion of his day in recent weeks.</p>
<p>And the reason Swan&#39;s scoop paints such a bleak picture of Trump is because it suggests he&#39;s not particularly interested in the official duties of being president. Whatever you think about Trump&#39;s policies or his fitness for the job, the job requires one to be fully engaged, to be processing information (preferably from sources other than cable news), and to always be, for lack of a better word, on. The idea that Trump doesn&#39;t take his daily intelligence briefing until 11 a.m. is shocking just by itself. And whoever leaked his official schedules to Swan seems to be concerned that Trump just isn&#39;t up to the job right now.</p>
<p>It also is completely counter to Trump&#39;s brand and the promises he made on the campaign trail. Trump said he wouldn&#39;t even take vacations as president. “I would rarely leave the White House, because there’s so much work to be done,” he told the Hill newspaper in June 2015. “I would not be a president who took vacations. I would not be a president that takes time off.”</p>
<p>He added in January 2016: “Somebody says, &#39;Why don&#39;t you take a vacation before you become president?&#39; I said because I like doing this.”</p>
<p>The question increasingly is what “this” is. And judging by the Axios report, “this” is increasingly spending time outside the Oval Office and tweeting. It suggests that, relative to past inhabitants of the Oval Office, we have a part-time president.</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9436573970b2018-01-08T14:09:25Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZFred C. DobbsBut the extent to which he is not engaged in the very serious matters of being president has never been...<p>But the extent to which he is not engaged in the very serious matters of being president has never been so firmly quantified. As the New York Times&#39;s Maggie Haberman noted in response to Swan&#39;s piece, the White House has bristled at such questions and lashed out at the New York Times for suggesting Trump watched four to eight hours of TV in a given day.</p>
<p>When we approached WH people estimating he spent as little as four and sometimes twice that many hours in front of a TV for our Dec piece, Trump erupted and blasted “fake reporters” while on Asia trip <a href="https://t.co/fg5xoQAgfr" rel="nofollow">https://t.co/fg5xoQAgfr</a></p>
<p>— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) January 8, 2018</p>
<p>Notably, Sarah Huckabee Sanders&#39;s response to Swan&#39;s story doesn&#39;t exactly read like an ironclad denial. Instead, she insists that Trump includes official business during his morning routine, which she concedes includes time in the residence.</p>
<p>“The time in the morning is a mix of residence time and Oval Office time but he always has calls with staff, Hill members, cabinet members and foreign leaders during this time,” Sanders told Swan. “The president is one of the hardest workers I&#39;ve ever seen and puts in long hours and long days nearly every day of the week all year long. It has been noted by reporters many times that they wish he would slow down because they sometimes have trouble keeping up with him.” ...</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cdbc97970c2018-01-08T14:08:18Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZFred C. DobbsFor the past week, all of Washington has been chewing over Michael Wolff's new book about President Trump and trying...<p>For the past week, all of Washington has been chewing over Michael Wolff&#39;s new book about President Trump and trying to assess which damning conclusions are actually true. But one of the bleakest scoops about Trump popped up elsewhere on Sunday night.</p>
<p>Axios&#39;s Jonathan Swan reports that Trump has significantly curtailed his official schedule as president — to the point where his first meeting is often held at 11 a.m., and he spends almost the whole morning in his White House residence watching TV, tweeting and making phone calls. That chunk of his day, generally between 8 a.m. and 11 a.m., is dubbed “executive time” — a phrase that is bound to become the butt of plenty of jokes. Trump then has other periods of “executive time” sprinkled in throughout his official work schedule, which is usually between 11 a.m. and 6 p.m. (Nice work if you can get it. And a short commute, too!)</p>
<p>The idea that Trump spends plenty of time on nonofficial pursuits isn&#39;t completely groundbreaking. A simple perusal of Trump&#39;s Twitter feed shows how much time he spends prosecuting feuds and responding to things he has clearly seen on TV, and it has been reported that being president hasn&#39;t been a particularly joyful pursuit for Trump. ...</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c943654b970b2018-01-08T14:06:29Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZFred C. DobbsWhy 'executive time' is a particularly bleak scoop about President Trump http://wapo.st/2m7nkgr WashPost - Aaron Blake - January 8 <p>Why &#39;executive time&#39; is a particularly bleak <br />
scoop about President Trump <a href="http://wapo.st/2m7nkgr" rel="nofollow">http://wapo.st/2m7nkgr</a><br />
WashPost - Aaron Blake - January 8  </p>EMichael commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cdba53970c2018-01-08T13:22:21Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZEMichael"Uncle"? Really?<p>&quot;Uncle&quot;?</p>
<p>Really? </p>EMichael commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c94362ed970b2018-01-08T13:18:58Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZEMichaelBecause talking to him about this subject is a total waste of time? This notion that the FED rate being...<p>Because talking to him about this subject is a total waste of time?</p>
<p>This notion that the FED rate being raised would mean more people getting access to credit at that best rate tied(somewhat) to the FED rate is beyond silly.</p>
<p>As you now mention, it is about credit and the deal itself. But one thing is totally missing, money supply.</p>
<p>And that has always been a huge factor in your &quot;roller coaster&quot;. If there is a lack of credit for many people(which I doubt) remotely creditworthy it is because the money supply for such loans is limited.</p>
<p>And in this case it is due to the investment bank scams of the housing bubble(oh, and the auto bubble that occurred at the same time).</p>
<p>Be awhile before big investors go there again. </p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cdb9e4970c2018-01-08T13:15:50Z2018-01-08T17:27:46Zannehttp://cepr.net/blogs/beat-the-press/it-matters-if-mexican-truck-drivers-can-transport-items-anywhere-in-the-united-states January 7, 2018 It Matters If Mexican Truck Drivers Can Transport Items Anywhere in the United States The New...<p><a href="http://cepr.net/blogs/beat-the-press/it-matters-if-mexican-truck-drivers-can-transport-items-anywhere-in-the-united-states" rel="nofollow">http://cepr.net/blogs/beat-the-press/it-matters-if-mexican-truck-drivers-can-transport-items-anywhere-in-the-united-states</a></p>
<p>January 7, 2018</p>
<p>It Matters If Mexican Truck Drivers Can Transport Items Anywhere in the United States</p>
<p>The New York Times had an interesting piece * comparing the situation of a truck driver who lives in Mexico and gets paid to carry goods just over the border into Texas and a driver in Texas who transports goods across the country. The U.S. based driver (who was born in Mexico) earns far more than his Mexican counterpart.</p>
<p>The piece highlights restrictions that severely limit the ability of Mexican truck drivers to transport goods beyond the immediate border area. It reports that Mexico has been pushing to ease these restrictions, while the Teamsters have pushed to leave them in place or even tightened.</p>
<p>It suggests that there is not much at stake in this battle, since the Mexican drivers are not allowed to carry goods back from their destination. The prospect of returning with an empty truck would make it uneconomical for most trips even if the Mexican drivers were paid far less than their U.S. counterparts.</p>
<p>This discussion misses the point. If the restrictions on Mexican drivers transporting goods in the United States were eased, then it is virtually inevitable that the NYT and other major news outlets would soon be running pieces on the fact that it is wasteful to prohibit them from picking up goods in the U.S. and instead come back with empty trucks. The likely result would be that this restriction would be removed as well.</p>
<p>The Teamsters understand this logic, which is why they are opposed to a relaxation of restrictions on Mexican drivers transporting goods into the United States. For some reason the NYT and other major news outlets are far more concerned about the restrictions that protect truck drivers than the far more costly barriers that protect doctors, dentists, and other highly paid professionals from foreign competition.</p>
<p>* <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/06/business/economy/nafta-border-truckers.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/06/business/economy/nafta-border-truckers.html</a></p>
<p>-- Dean Baker</p>im1dc commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9436190970b2018-01-08T13:00:24Z2018-01-08T17:27:46Zim1dcThe Sloth President https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-sneak-peek-a7c58480-bc9e-4580-93c1-6358a6102b93.html "President Trump’s Schedule Heavy on ‘Executive Time’" "President Donald Trump’s workdays frequently don’t start until 11...<p>The Sloth President</p>
<p><a href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-sneak-peek-a7c58480-bc9e-4580-93c1-6358a6102b93.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-sneak-peek-a7c58480-bc9e-4580-93c1-6358a6102b93.html</a></p>
<p>&quot;President Trump’s Schedule Heavy on ‘Executive Time’&quot;</p>
<p>&quot;President Donald Trump’s workdays frequently don’t start until 11 a.m., part of an apparent shrinking of his schedule that is increasingly heavy on so-called executive time, Axios reported Sunday evening. The schedule, more detailed than the public schedule released by the White House, showed that on Tuesday Trump had his first meeting at 11 a.m., with White House Chief of Staff John Kelly. What followed was an hour of “executive time”—understood to be time for television, Twitter, and phone calls with friends—followed by an hour-long lunch, then another hour and 15 minutes of “executive time.” Trump then had a 45-minute meeting with National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster, 15 minutes of “executive time,” and one last meeting before ending his day at 4:15 p.m. Press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders disputed that the cumulative two-and-a-half hours of “executive time” before clocking out at 4:15 p.m. amounted to executive sloth. “The time in the morning is a mix of residence time and Oval Office time but he always has calls with staff, Hill members, Cabinet members and foreign leaders during this time,” Sanders said. “The president is one of the hardest workers I’ve ever seen and puts in long hours and long days nearly every day of the week all year long.”</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c943612e970b2018-01-08T12:52:39Z2018-01-08T17:27:46ZRC AKA Darryl, Ron"...So why move rates up from here at all ?" [To guard against the appearance of impotency. Monetarism is here...<p>&quot;...So why move rates up from here at all ?&quot;</p>
<p>[To guard against the appearance of impotency. Monetarism is here and ready, always on the job, at the big bad Fed. Besides, it amuses the confidence fairy.]</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c943515b970b2018-01-08T05:41:36Z2018-01-08T05:54:04ZPaine High enough rates that the FED can drop to zero to really matter are not really possible Uncle can trigger...<p>High enough rates that the FED can drop to zero<br />
to really matter are not really possible </p>
<p>Uncle <br />
can trigger a credit crunch by raising prudential standards <br />
And trigger a credit boom by llowering prudential standards <br />
What more needs discussion </p>
<p>Btw <br />
If you look at earlier credit cycle episodes credit standards and limits were more openly discussed </p>
<p>This rate fetishism talk<br />
has always been either short hand or code or subterfuge </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cda7da970c2018-01-08T05:35:20Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZPaine The ever ponderous Jim Hamilton has decided to turn his grave eye on negative nominal policy rates And concluded they...<p>The ever ponderous Jim Hamilton has decided to turn his grave eye on negative nominal policy rates </p>
<p>And concluded they can only go a short way below zero <br />
Not enough to really impact credit flows <br />
I hasten to agree !! </p>
<p>Well just how big a move <br />
either way in policy interest rates <br />
can <br />
by itself ..by itself..<br />
Seriously impact credit flows <br />
In particular how high must policy rates be to <br />
Have the room to turn around a spontaneous drop in demand ? </p>
<p>Thesis</p>
<p>We can&#39;t get rates that high up<br />
And if we try <br />
We&#39;ll just trigger a massive contraction<br />
Bringing on precisely the outcome we are trying to prevent </p>
<p>So why move rates up from here at all ?</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cda776970c2018-01-08T05:21:56Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZPaine Why various commenters love to tell us they've known all this for years in fact they know it far better...<p>Why various commenters love to tell us <br />
they&#39;ve known all this for years <br />
in fact they know it far better then the rest of us </p>
<p>And yet have never suggested for example<br />
Constraints add a possible dimension to credit policy <br />
That dominates by far the impact of interest rates alone <br />
Even that rates only facilitate credit expansion because standards like ability to pay <br />
Determine borrowable amounts </p>
<p>We all have seen bankers pushing higher loan amounts on us in good times </p>
<p>&quot; you qualify for 350 k based on our formula &quot; </p>
<p>A formula that might change tomorrow of course <br />
Not to mention rates changing </p>
<p>For SMEs <br />
The story is often more opaque </p>
<p>You give them audited operating statements and a balance sheet </p>
<p>And they offer you one or other term loans<br />
or God forbid the widow maker <br />
A demand loan </p>
<p>But it&#39;s all fun really </p>
<p>Till the music stops <br />
</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cda734970c2018-01-08T05:10:28Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZPaine You are on to a key diversion Rate talk versus talk about the cycle of loan standards and also The...<p>You are on to a key diversion</p>
<p>Rate talk versus talk about the cycle of loan standards <br />
and also<br />
The history and pattern of various anti default guarantees <br />
Provided by federal agencies </p>
<p>Starting with deposit insurance <br />
But ranging far wider and into far more discretionary and selective episodes </p>
<p>White washing capitalist credit systems is a full time job of some pretty clever if amoral minds </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e69d62970d2018-01-08T05:02:39Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZPaine There are of course standards for little guys and different standards for big players That are a banks good customers...<p>There are of course standards for little guys and different standards for big players <br />
That are a banks good customers </p>
<p>These favored bigs often can still get money during a credit drought </p>
<p>But even they face an uncertainty that is gravely inefficient looked at over all </p>
<p>Trump had is roller coaster eh ?<br />
</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e69cdf970d2018-01-08T04:54:09Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZPaine The market value of Collateral used to evaluate a loan is so intricately interwoven with broader credit climates themselves And...<p>The market value of Collateral used to evaluate a loan <br />
is so intricately interwoven with broader credit climates themselves <br />
And <br />
So reflexive in its crisis interaction with credit flows <br />
Looking at this relationship alone<br />
can only make an observer shutter at the precarious <br />
Path the present system generates cycle after cycle <br />
From sector to sector </p>
<p>Several commercial developer friends of mine <br />
Are willing to admit<br />
The bank&#39;s turn them on and off like faucets <br />
They borrow and build as fast as they can till their lenders turn them off ! </p>
<p>They have no internal stop signs</p>
<p>&quot; why bother when the lenders will do what they do regardless &quot; </p>
<p>&quot; one minute they&#39;re throwing money at you the next they can slam the door in your face and call the work out unit in </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e69c83970d2018-01-08T04:44:27Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZPaine Really interesting comment Why it's attached to my comment puzzles me Since I focus on firm level mediators and the...<p>Really interesting comment </p>
<p>Why it&#39;s attached to my comment puzzles me </p>
<p>Since <br />
I focus on firm level mediators and the partitioned essence <br />
of the <br />
Lenders profit motives <br />
Not the Fed </p>
<p>And surely you must understand the significance of denials <br />
there are variable risk premiia <br />
But they do not ration credit <br />
Like prices ration oranges <br />
There is no rate for many applicants <br />
And these <br />
absolute denial rates vary considerably <br />
over the credit cycle <br />
Because there are critical changes in standards </p>
<p>My experience from1979 thru 1996 in the Boston SME <br />
And commercial real estate credit markets <br />
As a borrower <br />
Makes a nice testimonial to a crude roller coaster<br />
In crisis nearly a haphazard system <br />
Of funding </p>
<p>auto loans and student loans <br />
Credit card lines follow different patterns <br />
And yes there are loan sharks too </p>
<p>But denials and limits abound </p>
<p></p>
<p> <br />
</p>EMichael commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e69b11970d2018-01-08T04:09:29Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZEMichaelBernstein is way, way too nice to these people. "Questions for the MMTers January 7th, 2018 at 11:42 am As...<p>Bernstein is way, way too nice to these people.</p>
<p>&quot;Questions for the MMTers<br />
January 7th, 2018 at 11:42 am</p>
<p>As their adherents readily, and fairly, remind me, there’s a lot I don’t understand about modern monetary theory (MMT). So, let me ask about some aspects of the theory and see if I might get me some education.</p>
<p>First, I’ve stressed that, as I understand it, there’s no distance between my views and a core principle of MMT: the need for deficit spending when the economy is below full employment. This, of course, as Dean Baker points out, is as much Keynesian as anything else, but as the Chinese saying goes: black cat, white cat; as long as it catches the mouse.</p>
<p>The sad, underappreciated, fact is that for much of the last 35 years (about 70% of quarters, using unemployment minus CBO’s NAIRU; (u-u*)&gt;0 70% of the time since 1980), the US economy has operated below its potential. This is the fundamental problem of macro, the fundamental argument against budget austerity or monetary hawkishness, and the reason why MMT or whomever else argues on behalf of expansionary fiscal policy is correct.</p>
<p>But here’s what I don’t get.</p>
<p>Overheating is possible, and taxing is a lousy mechanism for dealing with it. Though it seems a pretty distant problem given the apparent flatness of the price Phillips Curve, everyone agrees, I think, that economies can overheat. To dial back fiscal stimulus, MMT’ers argue for tax increases.</p>
<p>That’s fine in theory, but how does that work in the real political economy? The president goes to Congress and proposes a tax increase to bring us back down to potential, and Congress says, “sure, boss. We’re on it!”? Presidents and Congresses don’t like tax increases, and they don’t happen quickly (yes, the last tax plan came together pretty quickly—because it was a cut!), they have distributional implications, and there’s a huge industry to fight you tooth and nail.</p>
<p>That’s why we have a Federal Reserve that can quickly and without political interference decide to take money out of the economy (to be clear, monetary policy also has distributional implications). That seems like an immeasurably more reliable way to handle the overheating problem, but I don’t think the MMT crowd agrees, or at least I don’t understand where the Fed and interest rates exist is their cosmology.</p>
<p>What about the Fed? The central bank introduces another piece of the MMT framework about which I’m confused. Suppose, even if the economy is below potential, the Fed decides it doesn’t like all this money-printing and deficit spending advocated by MMTers. Consider current events. Though we’re closing in on full employment, I don’t think we’re quite there yet, and I suspect MMTers and I agree that some deficit spending could be useful right now, as I argued here. To be clear, I’m arguing for, e.g., target jobs programs for people and places left behind even in year nine of the expansion, or a more generous EITC, not cuts in the damn estate tax! But, due to the tax cut, we are going to see considerable deficit spending over the next few years.</p>
<p>The Fed is already pushing back. And they may well decide to push back harder, i.e., speed up their “normalization” campaign by adding more rate hikes, even if the rest of us think there’s still economic room-to-run.</p>
<p>We can argue all day that the Fed is making a mistake to raise in the absence of inflationary pressures, but my point is simply that the Fed exists and has the independence to offset any self-financed government spending as they see fit. For all the MMTers logic around the privilege of sovereign, fiat currency, I don’t understand how they incorporate this reality into their model.</p>
<p>Krugman’s “finance-ability” point: Krugman argues that self-financing is more inflationary that bond issuance, but he’s not making the above points about MMTs flawed (IMO) assumption that tax cuts could handily deal with accelerating prices. He’s worried about currency debasing:</p>
<p>“The point is that under normal, non-liquidity-trap conditions, the direct effects of the deficit on aggregate demand are by no means the whole story; it matters whether the government can issue bonds or has to rely on the printing press. And while it may literally be true that a government with its own currency can’t go bankrupt, it can destroy that currency if it loses fiscal credibility.”</p>
<p>One could argue that the government doesn’t have to sell bonds—it can just print money—but it does sell bonds, it always has and probably always will. Moreover, it doesn’t just sell them to itself. It sells them to open markets of investors who could, under conditions triggered by printing-press reliance, decide not to buy them without an exorbitant risk premium. A model that assumes otherwise may raise interesting ideas, but, like discounting the role of the Fed and interest rate policy, risks being of limited real-world utility.</p>
<p>Timing issues re revenue raising vs. printing money: A theme of my work, to which MMTers often object, I think, is that we need to raise more revenues to pay for public goods. I recently wrote, for example, that, given our aging population, it will take something like 3% more of GDP to meet our obligations to Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid by 2035. MMTers push back that as long as we’re below potential, we can print the money to support government spending, so stop getting so wound up about “payfors.”</p>
<p>But while assuming full employment is a mistake, so is assuming a) enough slack to warrant all that printing, and b) even more so, the political will to do so. Though we should always be willing to deficit spend in the near term when economic conditions warrant it, should we not structure long-term fiscal policy to avoid structural deficits (a structural deficit is one that persists even at full employment)? At least in a political sense of protecting vital social insurance programs, isn’t the prudent approach, as difficult politically as it may be, to try to lock in a level of revenue collection that meets our future obligations?</p>
<p>Such queries seem often to get under the skin of the MMT crowd. But I come in peace and stress our shared recognition of the horrors of budget austerity. I ask these questions in the spirit of better understanding your arguments.&quot;</p>
<p><a href="http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/questions-for-the-mmters/" rel="nofollow">http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/questions-for-the-mmters/</a></p>
<p>They should try to live in a real world. </p>EMichael commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e69a52970d2018-01-08T03:53:55Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZEMichaelIn the last couple of days I have seen several examples of people talking about lending who have no fen...<p>In the last couple of days I have seen several examples of people talking about lending who have no fen clue what lending is about.</p>
<p>They, and you, have no idea. You should not talk about it. </p>
<p>Here is the only hint.</p>
<p>Credit worthiness, and lending, have almost nothing to do with the FED.</p>
<p>Yes, the prime is for the most credit worthy. Imbeciles know that.</p>
<p>You guys should stop right there.</p>EMichael commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9434c44970b2018-01-08T03:41:10Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZEMichaelNo. It is not the people that voted for Trump, it is the people that did not vote against him....<p>No.</p>
<p>It is not the people that voted for Trump, it is the people that did not vote against him.</p>
<p>They are the ones responsible.</p>
<p>Many, could not. Many chose not to vote against him.</p>
<p>They are the guilty.</p>
<p>Regardless of the reason. They gave us this.</p>Longtooth commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e69385970d2018-01-08T01:41:37Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZLongtoothFaust on the Potomac Again it's critical to realize that the problem isn't Trump but the voters who voted for...<p>Faust on the Potomac</p>
<p>Again it&#39;s critical to realize that the problem isn&#39;t Trump but the voters who voted for him. These are the same voters who voted for the present congress &amp; Senators, giving them the majority in the House for the last 7 years now and now the Senate.</p>
<p>Trump is just the far right wing&#39;s puppet that controls congress and the money that puts them there. </p>
<p>What PK&#39;s missing, imo, is the massive appeal the far right&#39;s &quot;individualism&quot; religion has for nearly the majority of voters. That proportion of voters puts their individual rights above their other interests. </p>
<p>These rights provide their ability &amp; support to denigrate and suppress those they believe are not their equals... blacks, Hispanics, non-Christians, LGBT&#39;s, unmarried females with children, and even poor whites (&quot;It&#39;s their own fault&quot;). </p>
<p>So where do these individualism religious believers get this religion in the first place? </p>
<p>Much of it is tribalism -- belonging to a group that thinks like they do.... &quot;belonging&quot; is one of human&#39;s most necessary conditions for survival -- its instinctive.</p>
<p>But then why do they chose to belong to the individualism tribe? </p>
<p>I think this starts in early childhood and is then reinforced through relatives, friends, their &quot;church&quot; congregation, their networks created through their education etc.</p>
<p>They don&#39;t just suddenly one day when they become eligible to vote decide to belong to the individualism tribe.<br />
So to change this requires mandated and enforced changes in laws, policies, and institutions... probably for several decades in fact. </p>
<p>I requires removing some of these &quot;individualism&quot; rights which of course are hard coded into the Constitution and interpretations of the &quot;individualism&quot; Judges on the Supreme Courts over time. </p>
<p>Individualism is a two edged sword for humans. Too much approaches chaos. Too little approaches sheep being led to the slaughter or the Lemming instinct.</p>
<p>But on balance for the greatest good to the vast majority of people, individualism has to take a distant second seat to cooperative society.. aka socialism.... in the extreme this it&#39;s associated with communism. Cooperative society is the antithesis &amp; perennial enemy of full blown laissez-faire capitalism and centralized gov&#39;ts.</p>
<p>This is the problem in the U.S. Allowing capital owners to control the system simply promotes a non-cooperative society &amp; will always oppose a cooperative one. In a nutshell we&#39;re simply talking about class society. The Greeks &amp; Romans had it.the Egyptians, &amp; Assyrians before them. The entire basis of western society is built on a class society. </p>
<p>The only difference is in the degree and the frequency of upheavals called civil wars &amp; revolutions... destructive in their own right.</p>
<p>So this is what PK is missing. How does a society transform itself to leave the alter of individualism&#39;s religion and not return to it enmass. </p>im1dc commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd9cc0970c2018-01-08T01:02:18Z2018-01-08T05:38:11Zim1dcTwo points A) There is clear evidence known to all today that Trump has committed multiple Obstruction of Justice crimes...<p>Two points</p>
<p>A) There is clear evidence known to all today that Trump has committed multiple Obstruction of Justice crimes in regard to the Russian Investigations.</p>
<p>B) There is clear evidence of Trump&#39;s mental instability from his recent tweets and behavior for the Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment.</p>
<p>Yet, the House lead by the Republican Majority refuses to issue Articles of Impeachment and the Senate also controlled by Majority Republicans has not asked them to send them the Articles of Impeachment.</p>
<p>Nor has Trump&#39;s Cabinet, all Republicans, acted to invoke the 25th Amendment to protect the nation from Trump&#39;s mental instability.</p>
<p>The most important issue today is the Republican Majority failure to act to protect the nation from Trump&#39;s craziness.</p>
<p>It is a wholly 100% Republican failure.</p>
<p>This scares me to the bone b/c never before has the nation faced such an obvious immediate need to remove a President and an equally obvious refusal of a Political Party in Majority control to refuse to do the right and proper thing, an ultimate job responsibility, and act to save the country from the an unfit President.</p>im1dc commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd9bbe970c2018-01-08T00:44:00Z2018-01-08T05:38:11Zim1dcVery odd given $60+ Crude Oil "Oil Rigs "Total US oil rigs were down 5 to 742 this week" by...<p>Very odd given $60+ Crude Oil</p>
<p>&quot;Oil Rigs &quot;Total US oil rigs were down 5 to 742 this week&quot;</p>
<p>by Bill McBride...1/07/2018...11:32:00 AM</p>
<p>Read more at <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#dcYpgWBHTEAoJWPD.99" rel="nofollow">http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#dcYpgWBHTEAoJWPD.99</a></p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e68de4970d2018-01-08T00:13:30Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZanneUber is a clear example of a "platform" outfit It mediates between a solitary actual service provider The car with...<p>Uber is a clear example of a &quot;platform&quot; outfit <br />
It mediates between a solitary actual service provider <br />
The car with driver <br />
and those willing to hire the service <br />
Those looking to go from A to B</p>
<p>It&#39;s a broker...</p>
<p>[ Perfect. ]</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd9a32970c2018-01-08T00:11:00Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZPaine Uber is a clear example of a "platform " outfit It mediates between a solitary actual service provider The car...<p>Uber is a clear example of a &quot;platform &quot; outfit <br />
It mediates between a solitary actual service provider <br />
The car with driver <br />
and those willing to hire the service <br />
Those looking to go from A to B </p>
<p>It&#39;s a broker like and a telephone system like hybrid </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9433fe9970b2018-01-07T23:55:17Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZPaine It's always fun To watch folks that "know "something Like the notion of credit constraints And yet never usefully understand...<p>It&#39;s always fun<br />
To watch folks that &quot;know &quot;something <br />
Like the notion of credit constraints<br />
And yet never usefully understand it </p>
<p>Joe Stiglitz is a huge acception to the academy and its fleets of<br />
benighted macronomicons </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9433fbb970b2018-01-07T23:51:41Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZPaine Credit availability policy not borrowing cost policy Credit standards not interest rates The label monetary policy sets us off inside...<p>Credit availability policy <br />
not borrowing cost policy</p>
<p>Credit standards not interest rates </p>
<p>The label monetary policy sets us off inside the wrong frame </p>
<p>It&#39;s not about money obviously<br />
But not even. the costs of borrowed funds <br />
It&#39;s about credit worthiness <br />
The credit standards cycle<br />
as dictated by firm level profit guided credit system mediators </p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9433fa4970b2018-01-07T23:48:41Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZanneOne must clearly recognize The Kalecki Keynes answer to the surplus capital dilemma Keynes can be used very effectively as...<p>One must clearly recognize <br />
The Kalecki Keynes answer <br />
to the surplus capital dilemma <br />
Keynes can be used very effectively as an antidote to <br />
The transformation<br />
Of national capitalist into trans national corporate capitalism<br />
And the resultant clash of great state powers <br />
Trying to clear their various foreign rivals out of their path <br />
The stage engendered by globalism <br />
That <br />
We Leninists<br />
call capitalism&#39;s imperialist stage</p>
<p>[ Save and develop this fascinating comment. ]</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9433f83970b2018-01-07T23:46:58Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZPaine Now we've seen much more then vi saw Imperialism going into crisis a second time And this time generating a...<p>Now we&#39;ve seen much more then vi saw</p>
<p>Imperialism going into crisis a second time <br />
And this time generating a new stage of organized state coordinated capital </p>
<p>1946 to 1972 <br />
And then another rising corporate globalism phase <br />
And another crisis <br />
1979 to 2007 <br />
And here we are ten years past this waves globalizing peak !</p>
<p>Or are we !</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9433f73970b2018-01-07T23:45:46Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZanneI'm working on a coherent link to site [ Save every comment for later editing. ]<p>I&#39;m working on a coherent link to site </p>
<p>[ Save every comment for later editing. ]</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd988d970c2018-01-07T23:42:30Z2018-01-08T05:38:11ZPaine One must clearly recognize The kalecki Keynes answer to the surplus capital dilemma Keynes can be used very effectively as...<p>One must clearly recognize <br />
The kalecki Keynes answer <br />
to the surplus capital dilemma <br />
Keynes can be used very effectively as an antidote to <br />
The transformation<br />
Of national capitalist into trans national corporate capitalism<br />
And the resultant clash of great state powers <br />
Trying to clear their various foreign rivals out of their path <br />
The stage engendered by globalism <br />
That <br />
We Leninists<br />
call capitalisms imperialist stage </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e68bc2970d2018-01-07T23:36:13Z2018-01-07T23:36:18ZPaine Yes Branko has a vey clear vision Schumpeter has a model of imperialism easily harmonized with Hobson Lenin and Hilferding<p>Yes Branko has a vey clear vision</p>
<p>Schumpeter has a model of imperialism <br />
easily harmonized with <br />
Hobson Lenin and Hilferding </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd97e0970c2018-01-07T23:32:30Z2018-01-07T23:36:18ZPaine Very sharp very crisp Russia is indeed a great morose bear Way too long provoked by uncles relentless attempts at...<p>Very sharp very crisp</p>
<p>Russia is indeed a great morose bear <br />
Way too long provoked <br />
by uncles relentless attempts <br />
at every greater constrictions </p>
<p>Germany can be a junior partner <br />
Japan can be a junior partner <br />
But Russia ?</p>
<p>Nope ! </p>
<p>The single global hyper power<br />
that emerged from the 1989 capitalist restoration wave <br />
In a matter of a decade and some <br />
Clearly developed a need for one or two<br />
Plausible global opponents <br />
Other then the fragmentary &quot;world &quot; of Islam </p>
<p>Russia and China have seen themselves reframed into this necessary antagonistic role<br />
In the continuing capitalist soap opera &quot;As &quot;market earth turns &quot; </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e68a9a970d2018-01-07T23:13:20Z2018-01-07T23:36:18ZPaine I'm working on a coherent link to site With my daughter<p>I&#39;m working on a coherent link to site <br />
With my daughter </p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e68828970d2018-01-07T22:23:09Z2018-01-07T23:36:18ZanneThat there is no reference to this series of posts is of course a severe problem for a reader. Why...<p>That there is no reference to this series of posts is of course a severe problem for a reader. Why write what obviously is supposed to be an important criticism, but leave a reader no way to properly understand the criticism?</p>Tom aka Rusty commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e67fc5970d2018-01-07T20:39:34Z2018-01-07T22:06:47ZTom aka RustyIrony is, Trump and the Trumpettes have exposed the alt-right and may do it much harm, orat least send it...<p>Irony is, Trump and the Trumpettes have exposed the alt-right and may do it much harm, orat least send it underground for a while.</p>Tom aka Rusty commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e67f6e970d2018-01-07T20:33:46Z2018-01-07T22:06:47ZTom aka RustyWe were supposed to survive for the first week in the gym locker rooms. Underground and concrete, but no food...<p>We were supposed to survive for the first week in the gym locker rooms. Underground and concrete, but no food and probable not much water. No to mention the smell.</p>Tom aka Rusty commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e67f5a970d2018-01-07T20:31:41Z2018-01-07T22:06:47ZTom aka RustyI met Christie - in line at a Phili steak place in south Phili. He had done a political speech...<p>I met Christie - in line at a Phili steak place in south Phili. He had done a political speech in Phili and was buying a bag full for the return trip.</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e67c38970d2018-01-07T19:36:20Z2018-01-07T22:06:47ZFred C. DobbsBannon Tries Backing Away From Explosive Comments NYT - JEREMY W. PETERS, MICHAEL TACKETT and NOAH WEILAND - JAN. 7...<p>Bannon Tries Backing Away From Explosive Comments<br />
NYT - JEREMY W. PETERS, MICHAEL TACKETT and NOAH WEILAND - JAN. 7<br />
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/07/us/politics/stephen-miller-cnn-trump-bannon-apology.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/07/us/politics/stephen-miller-cnn-trump-bannon-apology.html</a></p>
<p>WASHINGTON — Isolated from his political allies and cut off from his financial patrons, Stephen K. Bannon, President Trump’s former chief strategist, issued a striking mea culpa on Sunday for comments he had made that were critical of the president’s eldest son.</p>
<p>Mr. Bannon, who is quoted in a new book calling Donald Trump Jr.’s meeting with Russians in 2016 “treasonous,” tried to reverse his statements completely, saying that the younger Mr. Trump was “both a patriot and a good man.” Mr. Bannon spoke out after five days of silence, a delay that he said he regretted.</p>
<p>He said his reference to “treason” had not been aimed at the president’s son, but at another campaign official who attended the 2016 Trump Tower meeting, Paul Manafort.</p>
<p>“My comments were aimed at Paul Manafort, a seasoned campaign professional with experience and knowledge of how the Russians operate,” Mr. Bannon said, in a statement first reported by Axios. “He should have known they are duplicitous, cunning and not our friends. To reiterate, those comments were not aimed at Don Jr.”</p>
<p>Earlier on Sunday, the administration continued its assault on Mr. Bannon, with Mr. Trump’s senior policy adviser, Stephen Miller, saying in a heated interview on CNN that comments by Mr. Bannon in the new book were “out of touch with reality,” “vindictive” and “grotesque.”</p>
<p>Mr. Miller also pushed back against the perception that Mr. Bannon, whose harsh criticism of Mr. Trump and his family in the book has caused a sharp falling-out with the president, had ever played a Svengali-like role in the White House and on the presidential campaign.</p>
<p>He said Mr. Bannon’s role had been “greatly exaggerated,” even as the CNN host Jake Tapper ticked off a long list of policies he said Mr. Bannon had played a key role in formulating. Before he left the White House, Mr. Bannon was closely aligned with Mr. Miller in pushing Mr. Trump’s nationalist agenda.</p>
<p>In the book, “Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House,” by Michael Wolff, Mr. Bannon said Mr. Trump had “lost his stuff,” and he described the meeting with Russians attended by Donald Trump Jr. and the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, as potentially treasonous.</p>
<p>Mr. Miller, in his defense of the president, called him a “political genius” who could rattle off complete paragraphs on the fly in response to news events and then deliver them “flawlessly” to a campaign audience. On Saturday, the president, responding to the book’s depiction of his actions in office as erratic, had called himself a “very stable genius.”</p>
<p>The interview, on the CNN program “State of the Union,” quickly grew heated as Mr. Tapper accused Mr. Miller of being “obsequious” and speaking to an “audience of one.” Before it ended, Mr. Tapper told Mr. Miller, who is known for his hard-edge attacks on political opponents and the news media, that he was wasting his audience’s time.</p>
<p>Mr. Tapper then turned to the camera, even as Mr. Miller was still speaking, and cut to a commercial.</p>
<p>On Twitter, Mr. Trump said Mr. Miller had “destroyed” Mr. Tapper in the interview.</p>
<p>Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump </p>
<p><br />
Jake Tapper of Fake News CNN just got destroyed <br />
in his interview with Stephen Miller of the Trump Administration. Watch the hatred and unfairness of <br />
this CNN flunky!</p>
<p>10:15 AM - Jan 7, 2018 ...<br />
</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9433108970b2018-01-07T19:24:18Z2018-01-07T22:06:47ZFred C. DobbsThe Ends of the World by Peter Brannen https://shar.es/1N2ngM ... The effect of CO2 on the earth’s climate and oceans...<p>The Ends of the World <br />
by Peter Brannen <br />
<a href="https://shar.es/1N2ngM" rel="nofollow">https://shar.es/1N2ngM</a></p>
<p>... The effect of CO2 on the earth’s climate and oceans is often talked about as if it’s purely theoretical — that climate change was dreamt up in ivory-tower computer models and pushed by overzealous environmentalists. But the earth has run this experiment many times in the deep past. And as geologists have learned by studying the rocks and fossils of forgotten worlds, the results have sometimes been apocalyptic.</p>
<p> At the end of the Permian period 252 million years ago, the planet was populated by fantastical coral reefs in the sea and strange beasts and forests on land. A geological eye-blink later, the planet was almost vacant, the fossil record testifying to a breathtakingly impoverished world. Geologists searched in these extinction layers for the signs of an asteroid impact similar to the one found at the end of the age of dinosaurs, but they came up empty. Instead they discovered ancient mind-bending volcanoes in Siberia, dated exactly to this antediluvian Armageddon. Most concerning, in only the past few years, they’ve discovered that the magma came up through one of the largest fossil-fuel basins in the world, burning through gigatons of coal, oil, and gas in only a few thousand years. As a result of this volcanic carbon dioxide and methane, the world became excruciatingly hot. In the seas some scientists have implicated ocean acidification — the result of excess carbon dioxide reacting with seawater — as the main suspect in this crime that nearly sterilized the oceans.</p>
<p> Today we’re similarly burning through vast coal basins like an ancient supervolcano, injecting gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. As a result, stark changes to the climate are barreling towards us in the coming decades, regardless of whether politicians, compromised by the fossil fuel industry, believe it or not. Our oceans are acidifying as they have only in rare geological disasters in earth&#39;s history. As a result, by midcentury, many scientists think that coral reefs are doomed.</p>
<p> Returning, then, to the claim that we’re not yet in a mass extinction on par with the holocausts of the ancient past, the key word is “yet.” Casual gloom about the fate of our natural world threatens to inspire inaction while there’s still much work to do. There’s still time to save the world. But, unnervingly, many biologists and paleontologists believe that the natural world, when it does begin to fail, will collapse catastrophically — as it has only a few times in the history of the planet. For a long time the living world might seem to withstand our blows with relatively good humor — that is, until unstable food webs and complex but wobbly ecosystems come crashing down all at once like a stack of Jenga blocks. These points of no return are so-called “tipping points.” Though we haven’t hit mass extinction levels yet, we might be inching up to a truly geologic catastrophe without realizing until it’s too late.</p>
<p> Clearly we need to stop razing forests, dynamiting coral reefs, and trawling the seafloor clean. It has been this sort of direct destruction of habitat and animal life that has caused much of the wounds in the biosphere so far during our species&#39;s short stewardship of the planet. But if ancient mass extinctions have anything to teach us, it’s that fiddling with the planet’s carbon cycle might be the most dangerous prospect of all. We have no idea whether our experiment with the oceans and atmosphere will go as haywire as it did at the end of the Permian, or during any of the other major mass extinctions in our planet’s history. And, indeed, there are reasons to think that these old catastrophes — shrouded by the fog of deep time and buried in the earth — were worse than anything humans could ever inflict on the planet. But perhaps we shouldn’t try to find out. </p>
<p>Peter Brannen is an award-winning science journalist whose <br />
work has appeared in the New York Times, the Atlantic, <br />
Wired, the Washington Post, Slate, the Boston Globe ...<br />
The Ends of the World is his first book.</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9433035970b2018-01-07T19:04:21Z2018-01-07T22:06:47ZFred C. Dobbs(8 Trump voters near the Great Lakes think he's doing *great*.) How 8 Trump voters feel about his presidency so...<p>(8 Trump voters near the Great <br />
Lakes think he&#39;s doing *great*.)</p>
<p>How 8 Trump voters feel about his presidency so far <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2017-trump-heartland-sentiment/" rel="nofollow">https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2017-trump-heartland-sentiment/</a><br />
Bloomberg - May 17</p>
<p>In the aftermath of November’s election, there was the sense in many East Coast circles that it wouldn’t take long for the voters of Middle America to regret their decision to put Donald Trump in the White House. Eleven months later, we’ve found few signs of such remorse. We’ve been tracking a group of Trump supporters from the four key Heartland states that helped swing the election: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. True, there has been slippage in support for him in some cases, but what comes through clearly is that the emotional bond between the firebrand politician and his base remains very strong. Here they are–eight portraits in all–in their own words. ...</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c94328cd970b2018-01-07T18:43:37Z2018-01-07T22:06:47ZFred C. DobbsAre we meant to conclude that #FakeNews did *NOT* yield enough disgruntled Rust Belter Trump votes in the Great Lakes...<p>Are we meant to conclude that #FakeNews<br />
did *NOT* yield enough disgruntled Rust<br />
Belter Trump votes in the Great Lakes <br />
states to swing the election for DJT?</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd870c970c2018-01-07T18:40:36Z2018-01-07T22:06:47ZFred C. DobbsRelated: January 18, 2017 Stanford study examines fake news and the 2016 presidential election http://stanford.io/2jA7Xh1 via @Stanford ... economists Matthew...<p>Related:</p>
<p>January 18, 2017<br />
Stanford study examines fake news <br />
and the 2016 presidential election</p>
<p><a href="http://stanford.io/2jA7Xh1" rel="nofollow">http://stanford.io/2jA7Xh1</a> via @Stanford</p>
<p>... economists Matthew Gentzkow of Stanford and Hunt Allcott of New York University released a study also showing that social media played a much smaller role in the election than some might think.</p>
<p>“A reader of our study could very reasonably say, based on our set of facts, that it is unlikely that fake news swayed the election,” said Gentzkow, an economics professor and senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR).</p>
<p>“But that conclusion ultimately depends on what readers think is a reasonable benchmark for the persuasiveness of an individual fake news story,” he said. ...</p>
<p>Journal of Economic Perspectives<br />
Volume 31, Number 2—Spring 2017<br />
Pages 211–236</p>
<p>Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election</p>
<p>Hunt Allcott and Matthew Gentzkow</p>
<p><a href="https://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/fakenews.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/fakenews.pdf</a></p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd8366970c2018-01-07T18:26:12Z2018-01-07T22:06:47ZanneThe fierce nationalism of the India press at present makes learning about the Indian economy difficult. Conditions are presented with...<p>The fierce nationalism of the India press at present makes learning about the Indian economy difficult. Conditions are presented with nationalist or governmental slants, with little balance. So, we need to wait for standard data releases.</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd7f6d970c2018-01-07T18:20:50Z2018-01-07T18:22:19ZanneI have read lately China may be "investing" in Chabahar port in Iran a 100 miles west of Gwadar, Pakistan....<p>I have read lately China may be &quot;investing&quot; in Chabahar port in Iran a 100 miles west of Gwadar, Pakistan. Chabahar will have a rail link through Afghanistan to the Belt and Road network.</p>
<p>[ I will pay attention, but whether there are any such actual plans is uncertain. The Belt and Road projects from China running across Pakistan to the port at Gwadar are proceeding well. I expect we will soon learn of trade use of the highway and port. ]</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd7dfd970c2018-01-07T17:55:37Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZanneSo, nation.com.pk looks to be a reasonable source for news on Pakistan and since much of the news on the...<p>So, nation.com.pk looks to be a reasonable source for news on Pakistan and since much of the news on the development of China-Pakistan Belt and Road projects or the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is presented in the Indian press and is slanted, having a reasonable source from Pakistan will be useful.</p>EMichael commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd6fe0970c2018-01-07T17:20:49Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZEMichaelOngoing at Cowen's place. Before it goes away. EMichael January 7, 2018 at 11:17 am Shameful censorship. Reply 25 CorvusB...<p>Ongoing at Cowen&#39;s place.</p>
<p>Before it goes away.</p>
<p>EMichael January 7, 2018 at 11:17 am</p>
<p> Shameful censorship.</p>
<p> Reply</p>
<p> 25 CorvusB January 7, 2018 at 11:36 am</p>
<p> So, who censored your post, and why? I don’t even particularly recall what you posted – but you did post this link to an article in Slate: <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/life/history/2017/06/james_mcgill_buchanan_s_terrifying_vision_of_society_is_the_intellectual.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.slate.com/articles/life/history/2017/06/james_mcgill_buchanan_s_terrifying_vision_of_society_is_the_intellectual.html</a></p>
<p> Which, when put into the context of Stross’s monologue, and the manipulation of social media to sway public opinion in elections, presents a very frightening picture. A picture that is, by the way, now historic – since the manipulation pointed to by the Nancy McLean book has been going on since Reagan. Howard Dean was and is still the only politician I am aware of who publicly called out that strategy. Others have alluded to it, no better. If this post goes missing, then we will know there is something about that link the censor doesn’t like. CMB Jan-07-2018 11:33AM EST (-5 UTC)</p>
<p> Reply</p>
<p> 26 EMichael January 7, 2018 at 12:19 pm</p>
<p> Well, it could simply be a question regarding the daily bread, and whose butter.</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd6fc0970c2018-01-07T17:19:19Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZanneLuxemborg has a deeply flawed model That contends capitalism can never survive containment As a closed system capitalism is doomed...<p>Luxemborg has a deeply flawed model <br />
That contends capitalism can never survive containment <br />
As a closed system capitalism is doomed <br />
Simply because it can never generate adequate final demand out of its own internal economy i.e. As a closed total system<br />
Lenin among many others knocked off this model in the 1890&#39;s <br />
It&#39;s simply not logically sound</p>
<p>[ Reasonable, but the essay by Branko Milanovic seems superb even with this proviso:</p>
<p><a href="http://glineq.blogspot.com/2018/01/schumpeters-two-theories-of-imperialism.html" rel="nofollow">http://glineq.blogspot.com/2018/01/schumpeters-two-theories-of-imperialism.html</a></p>
<p>January 4, 2018</p>
<p>Schumpeter’s two theories of imperialism ]</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd6f91970c2018-01-07T17:14:47Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZanneThe seemingly important criticism needs clarifying and further development.<p>The seemingly important criticism needs clarifying and further development.</p>EMichael commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e64c1c970d2018-01-07T17:13:05Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZEMichaelKind of puts a new slant on those who repeatedly complain about the "oppression of the minority", huh?<p>Kind of puts a new slant on those who repeatedly complain about the &quot;oppression of the minority&quot;, huh?</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd6e96970c2018-01-07T16:59:13Z2018-01-07T18:18:23Zannehttps://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/15/books/review/democracy-in-chains-nancy-maclean.html August 15, 2017 How the Radical Right Played the Long Game and Won By HEATHER BOUSHEY DEMOCRACY IN CHAINS...<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/15/books/review/democracy-in-chains-nancy-maclean.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/15/books/review/democracy-in-chains-nancy-maclean.html</a></p>
<p>August 15, 2017</p>
<p>How the Radical Right Played the Long Game and Won<br />
By HEATHER BOUSHEY</p>
<p>DEMOCRACY IN CHAINS<br />
The Deep History of the Radical Right’s Stealth Plan for America<br />
By Nancy MacLean</p>
<p>Earlier this year, when the Republican pollster Glen Bolger sat down with Donald Trump voters who had previously voted for Barack Obama, one Wisconsinite summed up his reason for favoring Trump this time around: “I think they all lie, but Trump was more — is more obvious.” This statement presents quite a puzzle. Why would any voter think that being a known liar is an asset?</p>
<p>Insight into this conundrum comes from an unlikely source, the life’s work of the economist James McGill Buchanan — who happens to be the subject of a new book, “Democracy in Chains: The Deep History of the Radical Right’s Stealth Plan for America,” by the historian Nancy MacLean. Buchanan, who was born in 1919 and died in 2013, advanced the field of public choice economics into politics, arguing that all interest groups push for their own agenda rather than the public good. According to this view, governing institutions cannot be trusted, which is why governing should be left to the market.</p>
<p>In the United States, promising and then delivering services and protections for the majority of voters provides a path for politicians to be popularly elected. Buchanan was concerned that this would lead to overinvestment in public services, as the majority would be all too willing to tax the wealthy minority to support these programs. So Buchanan came to a radical conclusion: Majority rule was an economic problem. “Despotism,” he declared in his 1975 book “The Limits of Liberty,” “may be the only organizational alternative to the political structure that we observe.”</p>
<p>Buchanan therefore argued for “curbing the appetites of majority coalitions” by establishing ironclad rules that would curb their power. As he was known for saying, “the problems of our times require attention to the rules rather than the rulers.” In 1986, he was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science for “his development of the contractual and constitutional bases for the theory of economic and political decision making.”</p>
<p>Buchanan, however, also had what MacLean calls a “stealth” agenda. He knew that the majority would never agree to being constrained. He therefore helped lead a push to undermine their trust in public institutions. The idea was to get voters to direct their ire at these institutions and divert their attention away from increasing income and wealth inequality.</p>
<p>This is the sordid tale that MacLean lays out in “Democracy in Chains.” She starts with Buchanan’s early engagement in policy work in the late 1950s, when he offered to help the state of Virginia respond to the federal mandate to desegregate public schools. After the Supreme Court ruled in Brown v. Board of Education that public school segregation was unconstitutional, Buchanan and a fellow economist called for the state to issue tax-subsidized vouchers to any parents who wanted to send their children to private schools. What these economists were calling for was essentially the privatization of public education.</p>
<p>But even in 1950s Virginia, public schools were popular with many white parents, and “a fire sale of tax-funded public schools to private school operators would be political suicide,” MacLean writes. Buchanan’s plan failed, and he learned a tough lesson from this foray into policy making: If the majority demands services such as free public schools, politicians will acquiesce.</p>
<p>Buchanan decided he needed to influence policy at a deeper level. In the ensuing years, he sought to lead an economic and political movement in which he stressed that “conspiratorial secrecy is at all times essential” to mask efforts to protect the wealthy elite from the will of the majority. In September 1973, Buchanan held the inaugural meeting of the International Atlantic Economic Society, arguing for the need to “create, support and activate an effective counterintelligentsia” to reshape the way people thought about government. He believed the center-left controlled academia and “effectively indoctrinated political actors in both parties,” MacLean writes. To fight back, conservatives needed to develop new surrogates who could be “indoctrinated” in turn with right-wing ideas, and then “mobilized, organized and directed” to disseminate them.</p>
<p>We know all of this because MacLean found documentation of Buchanan’s plans — including correspondence, meeting minutes and personal papers — in his previously unexplored archives. She came upon her biographical subject “by sheer serendipity,” she writes, while researching how the state of Virginia responded to the Brown v. Board of Education decision. Seeing the name of an unfamiliar economist eventually led her to rooms full of documents that made clear how “operatives” had been trained “to staff the far-flung and purportedly separate, yet intricately connected, institutions funded by the Koch brothers and their now large network of fellow wealthy donors.” Buchanan’s papers revealed how, from a series of faculty perches at several universities, he spent his life laying out a game plan for a right-wing social movement.</p>
<p>One part of his plan involved Social Security. The election of Ronald Reagan as president in 1980 was a watershed for conservatives, yet it quickly became clear that he, too, would succumb to political pressure. By 1982, Reagan’s fight to end Social Security — long a bugbear of Buchanan’s — was faltering. Amid that debate, the libertarian Cato Institute, funded by the brothers Charles and David Koch, made privatization of Social Security its top priority and turned to Buchanan for a master plan. Buchanan told them that “those who seek to undermine the existing structure” must do two things: Make people doubt the viability of Social Security, and divide the public by suggesting high earners be taxed at higher rates — which might sound progressive but would ultimately undo the universal foundation of the program itself....</p>EMichael commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd6d28970c2018-01-07T16:23:26Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZEMichaelHeh. I posted this comment over at Cowen's blog. Disappeared minutes later.<p>Heh.</p>
<p>I posted this comment over at Cowen&#39;s blog.</p>
<p>Disappeared minutes later. </p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c94319f9970b2018-01-07T16:22:06Z2018-01-07T18:18:23Zannehttps://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/06/world/asia/india-modi-economy.html January 6, 2018 India’s Economic Woes Are Piercing Modi’s Aura of Invulnerability By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN and HARI KUMAR SURAT,...<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/06/world/asia/india-modi-economy.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/06/world/asia/india-modi-economy.html</a></p>
<p>January 6, 2018</p>
<p>India’s Economic Woes Are Piercing Modi’s Aura of Invulnerability<br />
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN and HARI KUMAR</p>
<p>SURAT, India — The immense popularity of Narendra Modi, India’s most dynamic prime minister in decades, has always rested on two legs: Hindu nationalism and his tantalizing promises to build on the country’s go-go economy.</p>
<p>That second leg is now looking a little shaky.</p>
<p>In the last two years, India’s consumer confidence has plummeted, construction has slowed, the fixed investment rate has fallen, many factories have shut down and unemployment has gone up.</p>
<p>Fingers are pointing at Mr. Modi. Just about all economists agree that two of the prime minister’s biggest policy gambles — abruptly voiding most of the nation’s currency and then, less than a year later, imposing a sweeping new sales tax — have slowed India’s meteoric growth.</p>
<p>“Things have been worsening, worsening, worsening,” said Himanshu, an economics professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, who uses only one name.</p>
<p>Still, the economy here is far from failing. The stock market continues to soar, major rail, road and port projects are unfolding across the country, and foreign investors poured $25.4 billion into India from April to September, up 17 percent from the period in 2016.</p>
<p>The government on Friday predicted that the country’s gross domestic product would grow by 6.5 percent in the 2017-18 financial year. While that is the lowest number the country has seen in four years, India’s economy is one that most countries would love to have.</p>
<p>But it does not feel that way to the huge number of Indians negatively affected by Mr. Modi’s policies, and the grumbles are growing. So are social tensions, especially those that divide Hindus from Muslims, and upper caste from lower caste. The fear is that Mr. Modi is already beginning to lean more heavily on that first leg of his, Hindu nationalism, now that his economic strategy is losing some of its sheen.</p>
<p>With 1.3 billion people, India is the world’s most populous democracy. In 10 years, economic forecasters predict that India’s economy will climb to third-largest in the world, behind only the United States and China. What happens here matters, and domestically, confidence is strained.</p>
<p>Even in Gujarat, the state considered the strongest of Mr. Modi’s strongholds, where people have been cheering his rise for the past 20 years and line up in dusty fields by the thousands just to catch a glimpse of his saffron scarf and groomed white beard, many feel betrayed.</p>
<p>The output from the textile industry, a huge employer here and once a healthy exporter, has been cut nearly in half, prompting layoffs and despair.</p>
<p>In many of the industrial areas, the happiest merchants are the merchants of scrap, who make their rounds in lurching trucks, scooping up looms, steel spools and other underused machinery for pennies on the dollar....</p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9431951970b2018-01-07T16:08:35Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZanneThe notion of independent free lance job structures Makes a broader swath of income misery into a liberty lover's luxury...<p>The notion of independent free lance job structures <br />
Makes a broader swath of income misery into a liberty lover&#39;s luxury <br />
Hobbes state of nature with smart phones</p>
<p>[ Really telling passage. Now I understand what is being referred to by &quot;platforms.&quot; Nicely done. ]</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd6c83970c2018-01-07T16:07:52Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZFred C. Dobbs'Researchers last week posted an analysis of the browsing histories of thousands of adults during the run-up to the 2016...<p>&#39;Researchers last week posted an analysis of the <br />
browsing histories of thousands of adults during <br />
the run-up to the 2016 election&#39;</p>
<p>Selective Exposure to Misinformation:<br />
Evidence from the consumption of <br />
fake news during the 2016 U.S.<br />
presidential campaign</p>
<p>Andrew Guess, Brendan Nyhan, Jason Reifler</p>
<p><a href="http://www.dartmouth.edu/~nyhan/fake-news-2016.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.dartmouth.edu/~nyhan/fake-news-2016.pdf</a></p>anne commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e648d2970d2018-01-07T16:04:11Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZanneThis all strikes me as important, and I read the passages several times, but there is evidently too much missing...<p>This all strikes me as important, and I read the passages several times, but there is evidently too much missing for me to have confidence that I understand. The writing is jarring to me, but possible the problem is that I have no background in the matter.</p>
<p>What you might do is save all these fragments so that they can be edited for clarity and completeness, and added to as necessary, then posted again. I try, but need help in understanding. I know there is importance in the idea being developed, but I get lost.</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e648ce970d2018-01-07T16:03:34Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZFred C. Dobbs(#FakeNews?) 'Fake News’: Wide Reach but Little Impact, Study Suggests https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/02/health/fake-news-conservative-liberal.html NYT - BENEDICT CAREY - JAN. 2, 2018 Fake...<p>(#FakeNews?)</p>
<p>&#39;Fake News’: Wide Reach but Little Impact, Study Suggests <br />
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/02/health/fake-news-conservative-liberal.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/02/health/fake-news-conservative-liberal.html</a><br />
NYT - BENEDICT CAREY - JAN. 2, 2018</p>
<p>Fake news evolved from seedy internet sideshow to serious electoral threat so quickly that behavioral scientists had little time to answer basic questions about it, like who was reading what, how much real news they also consumed and whether targeted fact-checking efforts ever hit a target.</p>
<p>Sure, surveys abound, asking people what they remember reading. But these are only as precise as the respondents’ shifty recollections and subject to a malleable definition of “fake.” The term “fake news” itself has evolved into an all-purpose smear, used by politicians and the president to deride journalism they don’t like.</p>
<p>But now the first hard data on fake-news consumption has arrived. Researchers last week posted an analysis of the browsing histories of thousands of adults during the run-up to the 2016 election — a real-time picture of who viewed which fake stories, and what real news those people were seeing at the same time.</p>
<p>The reach of fake news was wide indeed, the study found, yet also shallow. One in four Americans saw at least one false story, but even the most eager fake-news readers — deeply conservative supporters of President Trump — consumed far more of the real kind, from newspaper and network websites and other digital sources.</p>
<p>While the research can’t settle the question of whether misinformation was pivotal in the 2016 election, the findings give the public and researchers the first solid guide to asking how its influence may have played out. That question will become increasingly important as online giants like Facebook and Google turn to shielding their users from influence by Russian operatives and other online malefactors.</p>
<p>“There’s been a lot of speculation about the effect of fake news and a lot of numbers thrown around out of context, which get people exercised,” said Duncan Watts, a research scientist at Microsoft who has argued that misinformation had a negligible effect on the election results. “What’s nice about this paper is that it focuses on the actual consumers themselves.”</p>
<p>In the new study, a trio of political scientists — Brendan Nyhan of Dartmouth College (a regular contributor to The Times’s Upshot), Andrew Guess of Princeton University and Jason Reifler of the University of Exeter — analyzed web traffic data gathered from a representative sample of 2,525 Americans who consented to have their online activity monitored anonymously by the survey and analytic firm YouGov.</p>
<p>The data included website visits made in the weeks before and after the 2016 election, and a measure of political partisanship based on overall browsing habits. (The vast majority of participants favored Mr. Trump or Hillary Clinton.)</p>
<p>The team defined a visited website as fake news if it posted at least two demonstrably false stories, as defined by economists Hunt Allcott and Matthew Gentzkow in research published last year. On 289 such sites, about 80 percent of bogus articles supported Mr. Trump.</p>
<p>The online behavior of the participants was expected in some ways, but surprising in others. Consumption broke down along partisan lines: the most conservative 10 percent of the sample accounted for about 65 percent of visits to fake news sites.</p>
<p>Pro-Trump users were about three times more likely to visit fake news sites supporting their candidate than Clinton partisans were to visit bogus sites promoting her.</p>
<p>Still, false stories were a small fraction of the participants’ overall news diet, regardless of political preference: just 1 percent among Clinton supporters, and 6 percent among those pulling for Mr. Trump. Even conservative partisans viewed just five fake news articles, on average, over more than five weeks.</p>
<p>There was no way to determine from the data how much, or whether, people believed what they saw on these sites. But many of these were patently absurd, like one accusing Mrs. Clinton of a “Sudden Move of $1.8 Billion to Qatar Central Bank,” or a piece headlined “Video Showing Bill Clinton With a 13-Year-Old Plunges Race Into Chaos.”</p>
<p>“For all the hype about fake news, it’s important to recognize that it reached only a subset of Americans, and most of the ones it was reaching already were intense partisans,” Dr. Nyhan said.</p>
<p>“They were also voracious consumers of hard news,” he added. “These are people intensely engaged in politics who follow it closely.”</p>
<p>Given the ratio of truth to fiction, Dr. Watts said, fake news paled in influence beside mainstream news coverage, particularly stories about Mrs. Clinton and her use of a private email server as secretary of state. Coverage of that topic appeared repeatedly and prominently in venues like The New York Times and the Washington Post.</p>
<p>The new study does not rule out the possibility that fake news affected the elections, said David Rand, an associate professor of psychology, economics and management at Yale University.</p>
<p>Americans over age 60 were much more likely to visit a fake news site than younger people, the new study found. Perhaps confusingly, moderately left-leaning people viewed more pro-Trump fake news than they did pro-Clinton fake news. ...<br />
</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c94317c2970b2018-01-07T15:29:40Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZFred C. Dobbs'Mr. Trump previewed several tenets of a major regulation that was proposed by his Department of Labor on Thursday.' Trump...<p>&#39;Mr. Trump previewed several tenets of a <br />
major regulation that was proposed by <br />
his Department of Labor on Thursday.&#39;</p>
<p>Trump Proposes New Health <br />
Plan Options for Small Businesses<br />
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/us/politics/trump-association-health-plans-obamacare.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/us/politics/trump-association-health-plans-obamacare.html</a><br />
NYT - ROBERT PEAR - JAN. 4, 2018 </p>
<p>WASHINGTON — The Trump administration on Thursday proposed sweeping new rules that could make it easier for small businesses to band together and create health insurance plans that would be exempt from many of the consumer protections mandated by the Affordable Care Act.</p>
<p>As many as 11 million Americans “could find coverage under this proposal,” the Labor Department said in issuing the proposed rules, which carry out an executive order signed by President Trump on Oct. 12. The public will have 60 days to comment on the proposal before the Trump administration adopts final rules with the force of law.</p>
<p>The proposal would allow small business owners, their employees, sole proprietors and other self-employed people to join together as a single group to buy insurance in the large-group market. The new health plans could be exempt from some requirements of the Affordable Care Act. They would, for example, not have to provide certain “essential health benefits” like mental health care, emergency services, maternity and newborn care and prescription drugs.</p>
<p>“By joining together,” the Labor Department said, “employers may reduce administrative costs through economies of scale, strengthen their bargaining position to obtain more favorable deals, enhance their ability to self-insure and offer a wider array of insurance options.” ...<br />
</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd6a70970c2018-01-07T15:25:51Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZFred C. DobbsRemember Trump’s Pitch on Health Care Associations? Now We Know What He Meant https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/05/upshot/remember-trumps-pitch-on-health-care-associations-now-we-know-what-he-meant.html NYT - Margot Sanger-Katz - Jan....<p>Remember Trump’s Pitch on Health Care <br />
Associations? Now We Know What He Meant<br />
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/05/upshot/remember-trumps-pitch-on-health-care-associations-now-we-know-what-he-meant.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/05/upshot/remember-trumps-pitch-on-health-care-associations-now-we-know-what-he-meant.html</a><br />
NYT - Margot Sanger-Katz - Jan. 5, 2018</p>
<p>When President Trump claimed last week that “I know the details of health care better than most, better than most,” it now appears he had a point in at least one area. </p>
<p>His meandering comments about health care and “associations” were confusing, and not totally accurate. But, in his remarks to Michael Schmidt of The New York Times, Mr. Trump previewed several tenets of a major regulation that was proposed by his Department of Labor on Thursday. And he articulated how the rule could interact with other health policy changes — and the consequences that could follow.</p>
<p>Since his days as a candidate, Mr. Trump has consistently said that he wants to expand insurance access across state lines. And he has repeatedly argued that the decline and failure of Obamacare’s insurance markets would spur Democrats to come to the table and negotiate on some new plan. Thursday’s rule, amid other recent changes, aligns with both of those goals.</p>
<p>The proposed rule is designed to make it easier for groups of individuals and small businesses to band together and buy the kind of insurance that large companies offer their workers. That kind of insurance is regulated under federal labor law and isn’t subject to all the requirements and consumer protections that apply to individual and small business insurance under Obamacare. </p>
<p>Here’s what Mr. Trump said last week:</p>
<p>&quot;Now here’s the good news. We’ve created associations, millions of people are joining associations. Millions. That were formerly in Obamacare or didn’t have insurance. Or didn’t have health care. Millions of people. That’s gonna be a big bill, you watch. It could be as high as 50 percent of the people. You watch. So that’s a big thing. And the individual mandate. So now you have associations, and people don’t even talk about the associations. That could be half the people are going to be joining up.&quot; </p>
<p>As the proposal itself notes, “millions” of people might sign up for association plans, which could be made available to people who currently get insurance through a small business policy or buy it for themselves on the individual insurance market, as well as many people who currently lack health insurance. </p>
<p>The Department of Labor identifies about 44 million people that it thinks would be eligible. (Fifty percent of the people is a stretch.) Those people include self-employed business owners who buy their own insurance, people in the small group insurance market, and people who do not get insurance, but might, if their company could find a cheaper option. </p>
<p>The association rule is also likely to combine with other policy changes, as Mr. Trump notes. Congress recently repealed the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate, which means that Americans who decline to buy insurance won’t face a penalty, beginning next year. Another regulation is expected soon that would permit insurers to offer short-term plans for longer periods, perhaps for a year. Mr. Trump is right that the associations are part of a larger set of policies meant to chip away at Obamacare, and are likely to destabilize its markets for individual and small business insurance.</p>
<p>The degree of disruption these policies will cause remains unclear. But they are likely to work together. The individual mandate is believed to have pushed some healthy, reluctant shoppers to buy insurance, and they may no longer feel the nudge when it goes away. </p>
<p>The rise of short-term policies that cover fewer benefits and charge higher prices to sick customers might pull some healthier customers out of the Obamacare markets. And the association plans, which, under the proposal, would be open to small businesses and self-employed sole proprietors, may also pull some healthier, younger customers from Obamacare plans. </p>
<p>As Alice Ollstein at Talking Points Memo noted on Thursday, the rule says that the individual mandate will mitigate negative effects from associations and then mentions in a footnote that the mandate will go away next year. (That’s just one of a few conflicts and factual errors in the proposal.)</p>
<p>Under the proposal, which may face legal challenges, associations aren’t allowed to explicitly discriminate against individual applicants on the basis of their health history. But experts say there are a number of subtle tools they can use to attract healthy customers and shun sick ones. </p>
<p>Associations may become a more attractive coverage option for industries with lots of young, healthy workers — say, dog walkers — and less attractive for industries where workers are older and sicker, like, say, roofers. That’s because Obamacare premiums are designed to be the same for everyone who signs up, regardless of their health status. Over all, healthier people tend to pay more in the current market than they would in an association of similar people, but sicker people don’t. </p>
<p>The association plans for workers in a shared industry could be across state lines, in keeping with Mr. Trump’s goal. The rule also allows associations to set geographic limitations on enrollment, allowing unrelated businesses in a similar geographic area to join together. (Rural areas, which tend to be expensive, could be excluded.) </p>
<p>In many cases, associations would also be free to customize their benefits packages, and avoid covering expensive treatments. A plan that doesn’t cover substance-abuse treatment or medications for rheumatoid arthritis might be cheaper, but would push people who know they need those therapies into the Obamacare market instead, where all plans have to cover a set of “essential health benefits.” </p>
<p>Most dog walkers who do not have arthritis or psychiatric illnesses may not mind — or even notice, unless their health status changes.</p>
<p>Some proponents of the package of Trump administration policies say they will not make a big enough difference to upend the markets that remain, but say that the new options will provide more affordable coverage to people who have stayed uninsured under the current system.</p>
<p>But Obamacare advocates are very worried. Mr. Trump has said many times that Obamacare’s death would bring about cooperation from Democrats in creating an alternative. In his Times interview, he specifically says that the policy brew of associations and mandate repeal could be what it takes to prompt bipartisan compromise.</p>
<p>“I believe that because of the individual mandate and the associations, the Democrats will and certainly should come to me and see if they can do a really great health care plan for the remaining people,” he said.<br />
</p>Fred C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd69ed970c2018-01-07T15:17:45Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZFred C. Dobbs(Frewd?) (Not so vaguely related.) A Chinese Empire Reborn NYT - EDWARD WONG - JAN. 5 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/05/sunday-review/china-military-economic-power.html The Communist Party’s...<p>(Frewd?)</p>
<p>(Not so vaguely related.)</p>
<p>A Chinese Empire Reborn<br />
NYT - EDWARD WONG - JAN. 5<br />
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/05/sunday-review/china-military-economic-power.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/05/sunday-review/china-military-economic-power.html</a></p>
<p>The Communist Party’s emerging empire is more <br />
the result of force than a gravitational pull <br />
of Chinese ideas. ...</p>Frewd C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd6966970c2018-01-07T15:08:27Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZFrewd C. DobbsIn the current political climate, this is hardly surprising, and in the long run, inevitable.<p>In the current political climate,<br />
this is hardly surprising, and <br />
in the long run, inevitable.</p>Frewd C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c94316f3970b2018-01-07T15:06:37Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZFrewd C. Dobbs(Googling, one sees many indications of growing Pakistan-China connections. Such as...) Pakistan, China jointly working for establishment of special industrial...<p>(Googling, one sees many indications<br />
of growing Pakistan-China connections.</p>
<p>Such as...)</p>
<p>Pakistan, China jointly working for <br />
establishment of special industrial zones<br />
<a href="https://nation.com.pk/07-Jan-2018/pakistan-china-jointly-working-for-establishment-of-special-industrial-zones" rel="nofollow">https://nation.com.pk/07-Jan-2018/pakistan-china-jointly-working-for-establishment-of-special-industrial-zones</a><br />
The Nation - January 7</p>
<p>BEIJING - Pakistan &#39;s Ambassador to China Masood Khalid Saturday said the industrial cooperation was an important component of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and now the two countries were jointly working for establishment of special industrial zones in Pakistan .</p>
<p>“China has a vast experience of setting up industrial parks and economic zones and Pakistan will establish special economic zones with its cooperation to strengthen economy and create employment opportunities for the local people,” he said while addressing a seminar held here to discuss industrial cooperation between China and Pakistan and setting up of economic zones under the CPEC framework.</p>
<p>The seminar, organized by Pakistani Center for Studies at Peking University, was attended by diplomats, intellectuals and academicians from the two countries.</p>
<p>Ambassador Khalid said China and Pakistan were strategic partners and all weather friends and added that both the countries had historical and deep-rooted relations based on mutual trust.</p>
<p>He said the relations between the two countries had been strengthening with the passage of time and now the Pak-China friendship was an example for other countries of the region.</p>
<p>“The CPEC is a flagship project under the Belt and Road Initiative and reflective of the vision of top leadership of the two countries,” he added. ...</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>China may be looking to exploit <br />
a US move to cut aid to Pakistan <br />
<a href="http://read.bi/2CqWrec" rel="nofollow">http://read.bi/2CqWrec</a> <br />
via @Business Insider - January 4</p>
<p>China may be looking to cozy up to its Middle East ally Pakistan now that the US has vowed to cut security aid and other assistance to the country. </p>
<p>Historically, China and Pakistan have maintained close ties.Pakistan first recognized the People&#39;s Republic of China fewer than two years after it was established. Pakistan&#39;s Prime Minister has hailed China as his country&#39;s &quot;best and most trusted friend,&quot; and the two nations remain close strategic trade partners. </p>
<p>But recent moves by China suggest the country may be looking to exploit Washington&#39;s decision to slash Pakistani aid in order to gain geopolitical advantage over the US in the region. </p>
<p>China&#39;s foreign ministry spokesman was quick to defend Pakistan on Tuesday, just hours after Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations, first announced it would continue to hold back $255 million in aid to the country. “Pakistan has made enormous efforts and sacrifice for the fight against terrorism and has made very outstanding contribution to the global cause of counter terrorism.&quot; </p>
<p>“China and Pakistan are all-weather partners. We stand ready to promote and deepen our all-round cooperation so as to bring benefits to the two sides,” the spokesman added. <br />
<br />
On Wednesday, the central bank of Pakistan announced it would begin using Chinese yuan (CNY) for bilateral trade and investment activities, saying that it &quot;foresees that CNY denominated trade with China will increase significantly going forward; and will yield long term benefits for both the countries.&quot; </p>
<p>China&#39;s Ambassador to Pakistan announced during his visit to the country on Wednesday that China will expedite its multibillion dollar infrastructure project in Pakistan, called the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is part of China&#39;s One Belt One Road initiative to expand its trade influence across the globe. ...<br />
</p>EMichael commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd6907970c2018-01-07T14:59:17Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZEMichaelWow. Just ordered this book. " When the Supreme Court decided, in the 1954 case of Brown vs. Board of...<p>Wow. Just ordered this book.</p>
<p>&quot; When the Supreme Court decided, in the 1954 case of Brown vs. Board of Education, that segregated public schools were unconstitutional, Tennessee-born economist James McGill Buchanan was horrified. Over the course of the next few decades, the libertarian thinker found comfortable homes at a series of research universities and spent his time articulating a new grand vision of American society, a country in which government would be close to nonexistent, and would have no obligation to provide education—or health care, or old-age support, or food, or housing—to anyone.</p>
<p>This radical vision has become the playbook for a network of people looking to override democracy in order to shift more money to the wealthiest few, historian and professor at Duke University Nancy MacLean argues in her new book, an intellectual biography of James Buchanan called Democracy in Chains: The Deep History of the Radical Right’s Stealth Plan for America.* Buchanan’s life story, she writes, is “the true origin story of today’s well-heeled radical right....</p>
<p></p>
<p><br />
Did his ideas change over time?</p>
<p>The core ideas kind of stayed the same. What did change over time was his own outlook. It became much darker over the years. His first big book in his field, which is called public choice economics, was titled The Calculus of Consent, and it came out in 1962 and was co-authored with Gordon Tullock. It was the work for which Buchanan was most recognized in his Nobel citation. In that work, he seemed to believe that somehow people of good will could come to something close to unanimity on the basic rules of how to govern our society, on things like taxation and government spending and so forth.</p>
<p>And by the mid-1970s he concluded that that was impossible, and that there was no way that poor people would ever agree … there was no way that people who were not wealthy, who were not large property owners, would agree to the kind of rules he was proposing. So that was a very dark work. It was called The Limits of Liberty. He actually said in that work that the only hope might be despotism.</p>
<p>And he went from writing that to advising the Pinochet junta in Chile on how to craft their constitution. This document was later called a “constitution of locks and bolts,” [and was designed] to make it so that the majority couldn’t make its will felt in the political system, unless it was a huge supermajority.</p>
<p>So yeah, it’s pretty dark....</p>
<p>ell me more about the relationship between Koch and Buchanan.</p>
<p>I think too many people on the left have really underestimated Koch’s intelligence and his drive, and also misunderstood his motives. There’s been brilliant work by journalists, really good digging on the money trail and the Koch operations, but much of that writing seems to assume that he is doing this just because it’s going to lower his tax bill or because he wants to evade regulations, personally. I think that really misgauges the man. He is deeply ideological and has been reading almost fanatically for a very long time. I see him as someone who’s quite messianic. He’s compared himself to Martin Luther and his effort being like the Protestant Reformation. When he invested in Buchanan’s center at George Mason University, he said he wanted to “unleash the kind of force that propelled Columbus.”</p>
<p>This is not someone who’s just trying to lower his tax bill. He wants to bring in a totally new vision of society and government, that’s different from anything that exists anywhere in the world or has existed because he is so certain that he is right. I think it’s more chilling because it doesn’t correspond to the ideas we have about politics....</p>
<p></p>
<p>And then Koch funded Buchanan’s center, as well as other projects, at George Mason University. One of Buchanan’s ideas that Koch liked was the concept of making a flurry of changes all at once so that people have a hard time opposing them.</p>
<p>Yes, and in the same year that Koch invested all this money in George Mason, [economist] Tyler Cowen got a commission by the Institute for Humane Studies to produce this review of places where economic liberty has made big advances. Cowen advocates what he calls a “Big Bang.”</p>
<p>Interestingly it’s that same phrase that gets used by Civitas, the Koch-affiliated organization in North Carolina, after they take over the state legislature here in 2011. I actually have to give the North Carolina Republican-led General Assembly some credit for this book because I was struggling through Buchanan’s ideas, trying to understand the implications, because he did write in a somewhat abstract manner. And then the General Assembly came in in North Carolina and just made it all so clear. I saw the practical measures being taken and was like, “Oh, this is what he’s talking about! That’s what this is!” I should have put them in the acknowledgements.&quot;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/life/history/2017/06/james_mcgill_buchanan_s_terrifying_vision_of_society_is_the_intellectual.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.slate.com/articles/life/history/2017/06/james_mcgill_buchanan_s_terrifying_vision_of_society_is_the_intellectual.html</a></p>
<p><br />
”<br />
</p>Frewd C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd68c1970c2018-01-07T14:55:05Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZFrewd C. Dobbs‘Everything I’ve Done Is 100 Percent Proper,’ Trump Says of Russia Inquiry NYT - MICHAEL TACKETT - JAN. 6, 2018...<p>‘Everything I’ve Done Is 100 Percent <br />
Proper,’ Trump Says of Russia Inquiry<br />
NYT - MICHAEL TACKETT - JAN. 6, 2018 <br />
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/06/us/politics/trump-russia-mueller.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/06/us/politics/trump-russia-mueller.html</a></p>
<p>WASHINGTON — President Trump again insisted on Saturday that he was not under investigation by Robert S. Mueller III, the special counsel investigating Russian influence on the 2016 election, adding that “there’s been no collusion, there’s been no crime.”</p>
<p>“Everything I’ve done is 100 percent proper,” Mr. Trump said during a news conference at Camp David, where he was asked about a New York Times report (*) that he had pressed Attorney General Jeff Sessions not to recuse himself from the Russia inquiry. “That is what I do, is I do things proper.”</p>
<p>The president said the Times article, which reported that Mr. Trump had sought to protect himself by keeping Mr. Sessions in charge of the investigation, was “off,” though he did not elaborate.</p>
<p>The two primary issues that Mr. Mueller appears to be investigating are whether Mr. Trump obstructed justice while in office and whether there was collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. ...</p>
<p>* Obstruction Inquiry Shows Trump’s <br />
Struggle to Keep Grip on Russia Investigation<br />
NYT - MICHAEL S. SCHMIDT - JAN. 4, 2018 <br />
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/us/politics/trump-sessions-russia-mcgahn.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/us/politics/trump-sessions-russia-mcgahn.html</a><br />
</p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd6883970c2018-01-07T14:51:03Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZRC AKA Darryl, RonFrewd? When I was laid off then I was holding onto cash and had no personal computer nor any existing...<p>Frewd?</p>
<p>When I was laid off then I was holding onto cash and had no personal computer nor any existing relationship with any consumer technology vendor. I still do not have either a digital camera or a cell phone. So beggars cannot be choosers. Besides, since I intentionally have a very small Internet footprint then I have little reason to invest much time into product evaluation and ongoing support and maintenance. Kaspersky Internet Security was what Best Buy/Geek Squad was pushing on Dell PC. If it were up to me, that is I was spending my own money, then I would never buy Dell. Your reference just adds to my growing conviction to never shop at Best Buy myself either.</p>
<p>Over 99% of my Internet activity is either checking Weather forecasts or reading and commenting here at EV. About twice per month I check my bank balances and recently a little more often than that I search for a baking recipe. I don&#39;t bake when the weather is warm. When I go to my online banking then I restart my PC immediately before and after my banking session, which disrupts RAM each time.</p>Frewd C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd6874970c2018-01-07T14:49:25Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZFrewd C. DobbsTrump Defends Mental Fitness, Saying He’s a ‘Stable Genius’ President Trump, seeming to respond to revelations in a new book,...<p>Trump Defends Mental Fitness, Saying He’s a ‘Stable Genius’</p>
<p>President Trump, seeming to respond to revelations <br />
in a new book, issued an extraordinary defense of <br />
his fitness for office in a series of tweets.</p>
<p>By taking on the issue so directly, the president <br />
ensured that the discussion of his capacity would <br />
only intensify.</p>
<p>NYT - PETER BAKER and MAGGIE HABERMAN <br />
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/06/us/politics/trump-genius-mental-health.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/06/us/politics/trump-genius-mental-health.html</a></p>
<p>WASHINGTON — President Trump, whose sometimes erratic behavior in office has generated an unprecedented debate about his mental health, declared on Saturday that he was perfectly sane and accused his critics of raising questions to score political points.</p>
<p>In a series of Twitter posts that were extraordinary even by the standards of his norm-shattering presidency, Mr. Trump insisted that his opponents and the news media were attacking his capacity because they had failed to prove his campaign conspired with Russia during the 2016 presidential campaign.</p>
<p>“Now that Russian collusion, after one year of intense study, has proven to be a total hoax on the American public, the Democrats and their lapdogs, the Fake News Mainstream Media, are taking out the old Ronald Reagan playbook and screaming mental stability and intelligence,” he wrote on Twitter even as a special counsel continues to investigate the Russia matter.</p>
<p>“Actually, throughout my life, my two greatest assets have been mental stability and being, like, really smart,” he added. He said he was a “VERY successful businessman” and television star who won the presidency on his first try. “I think that would qualify as not smart, but genius....and a very stable genius at that!”</p>
<p>Elaborating during a meeting with reporters at Camp David later in the day, Mr. Trump again ticked off what he called a high-achieving academic and career record. He raised the matter “only because I went to the best colleges, or college,” he said. Referring to a new book citing concerns about his fitness, he said, “I consider it a work of fiction and I consider it a disgrace.”</p>
<p>The president’s engagement on the issue is likely to fuel the long-simmering argument about his state of mind that has roiled the political and psychiatric worlds and thrust the country into uncharted territory. Democrats in Congress have introduced legislation to force the president to submit to psychological evaluation. Mental health professionals have signed a petition calling for his removal from office. Others call armchair diagnoses a dangerous precedent or even a cover for partisan attacks.</p>
<p>In the past week alone, a new book resurfaced previously reported concerns among the president’s own advisers about his fitness for office, the question of his mental state came up at two White House briefings and the secretary of state was asked if Mr. Trump was mentally fit. After the president boasted that his “nuclear button” was bigger than Kim Jong-un’s in North Korea, Richard W. Painter, a former adviser to President George W. Bush, described the claim as proof that Mr. Trump is “psychologically unfit” and should have his powers transferred to Vice President Mike Pence under the Constitution’s 25th Amendment.</p>
<p>Mr. Trump’s self-absorption, impulsiveness, lack of empathy, obsessive focus on slights, tenuous grasp of facts and penchant for sometimes far-fetched conspiracy theories have generated endless op-ed columns, magazine articles, books, professional panel discussions and cable television speculation.</p>
<p>“The level of concern by the public is now enormous,” said Bandy X. Lee, a forensic psychiatrist at Yale School of Medicine and editor of “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump: 27 Psychiatrists and Mental Health Experts Assess a President,” a book released last fall. “They’re telling us to speak more loudly and clearly and not to stop until something is done because they are terrified.” ...<br />
</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e6452e970d2018-01-07T14:45:24Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZPaine Hilferding<p>Hilferding </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9431616970b2018-01-07T14:44:30Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZPaine Branko ought to give credit to the Austria Marxists that built the Marxian theory of finance capital They can be...<p>Branko ought to give credit to the Austria Marxists that built the Marxian theory of finance capital </p>
<p>They can be found and read</p>
<p>Btw<br />
Luxembourg has a deeply flawed model <br />
That contends capitalism can never survive containment <br />
As a closed system capitalism is doomed <br />
Simply because it can never generate adequate final demand out of its own internal economy i.e. As a closed total system<br />
Lenin among many others knocked off this model in the1890&#39;s <br />
It&#39;s simply not logically sound </p>
<p>So dear Branko<br />
Drop rosa and add a Austrian Marxiian contemporary of hers </p>
<p>Btw<br />
Hobson is the clear source of Lenins elaboration <br />
Based on &quot;uneven development &quot;<br />
And the exspanionary dynamics of</p>
<p>I.e. Not some world historical trend line break down model of the profit rate <br />
Super profits And surplus capital </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c94315dc970b2018-01-07T14:36:27Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZPaine Exactly But hey I'll give PK this summation intensifying license One time<p>Exactly </p>
<p>But hey I&#39;ll give PK this summation intensifying license <br />
One time </p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd67ec970c2018-01-07T14:34:54Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZRC AKA Darryl, RonThe experience of the majority of people casting the votes on internetworking standards councils tended to be more in management...<p>The experience of the majority of people casting the votes on internetworking standards councils tended to be more in management and finance than technology. They were certainly informed and advised by technology experts, but not necessarily experts without any personal interest in what they were advocating. The firms represented in the decision making process were dominated by the retail and banking sectors, which were the largest users of IT other than government, which also played a significant role. None of these people were considering the possibility of Amazon or Bitcoin, much less identity theft and other hacking scams. The government was more concerned with military secrets, which had already proved to be vulnerable in an IP environment. But the government trusted their own encryption ability.</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd67e5970c2018-01-07T14:34:26Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZPaine Yes this is a fine rant Worth column space Too bad PK has fifteen others better left to empty brained...<p>Yes this is a fine rant</p>
<p>Worth column space</p>
<p>Too bad PK has fifteen others better left to empty brained Dembot big mouths </p>
<p>While PK plays political economist <br />
A role he&#39;s quite well suited for !</p>Frewd C. Dobbs commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9431597970b2018-01-07T14:28:52Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZFrewd C. DobbsObama’s popularity is rising even as Trump is president http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2018/01/06/trump-making-obama-great-again/Ge68WgqS6ljwXtwjSpDTYI/story.html?event=event25 via @BostonGlobe Astead W. Herndon - January 7, 2018 WASHINGTON...<p>Obama’s popularity is rising even as Trump is president <br />
<a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2018/01/06/trump-making-obama-great-again/Ge68WgqS6ljwXtwjSpDTYI/story.html?event=event25" rel="nofollow">http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2018/01/06/trump-making-obama-great-again/Ge68WgqS6ljwXtwjSpDTYI/story.html?event=event25</a> via @BostonGlobe</p>
<p>Astead W. Herndon - January 7, 2018 </p>
<p>WASHINGTON — One American politician is currently dominating the cultural landscape, from social media to late-night television. His poll numbers look great, his Twitter posts are often among the most read in the world, and with every utterance, his impassioned base of supporters reacts with a fervor more typical for celebrities than former civil servants. </p>
<p>The former president left office last January with favorable approval ratings, but historians, former staffers, and political observers now say his societal standing has reached a new echelon — and it’s partly due to his successor. </p>
<p>Donald Trump spent much of his first year in office attempting to erase Obama’s policy legacy, but experts, backed by loads of anecdotal evidence, say Trump’s unconventional and often divisive conduct has actually deepened the connection to Obama for liberals and independents. As the current president spent 2017 buffeted by scandals and igniting Twitter controversies, Obama seemed to increasing numbers a throwback to simpler political times, more deeply admired by those who find Trump ever more deeply objectionable.</p>
<p>Most presidents — even the most unpopular ones — tend to grow in public esteem after they leave office. But only one of them may score an invite to the upcoming royal wedding in England; rumor has it that Obama may make the coveted list. Trump, after a string of tweets and remarks ill-received in post-Brexit Britain, may not.<br />
<br />
“Obama’s legacy is being bolstered by Trump,” said Michael Earls, author of an Obama biography called “Obama’s Legacy: What He Accomplished as President.” </p>
<p>“People are waking up every morning to tweets that some find upsetting and frightening. And they’re realizing whether they liked or didn’t like Obama, people know they were rarely embarrassed by him,” Earls said. </p>
<p>The former president’s enhanced public profile could, however, be a double-edged sword for Democrats. While Obama provides them a ready counterpoint to Trump’s chaotic presidency, he also represents the past, not the still-forming future of the party. </p>
<p>In 2016, the party, without Obama topping the ticket, failed to excite key constituencies — especially black Americans and other minorities — and many party operatives acknowledge that this remains a threat going forward. An adviser close to Obama said that he wants to help empower the next generation of Democrats, not overshadow them, but the party still lacks a singular figure who can energize the party. </p>
<p>Douglas Heye, a GOP strategist and former spokesman at the Republican National Committee, said Democrats are now seeing Obama through “rose colored glasses.” </p>
<p>“It’s as if Democrats are turning the 1992 Clinton slogan on its head and are singing ‘Don’t stop thinking about yesterday,’ ” Heye said. “But while it may be a nostalgic diversion from today’s reality, it won’t help Democrats address why they lost to Trump and how they can beat him in 2020.”</p>
<p>On Twitter, Obama’s growth in popularity can be quantified. When he wished the country a Merry Christmas in his last year as president, the message was retweeted about 100,000 times. But when Private Citizen Obama wrote an almost identical message in 2017, it was retweeted 250,000 times, dwarfing his previous total and the response to Trump’s holiday greeting. ...<br />
</p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9431588970b2018-01-07T14:27:26Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZPaine Uncle has Near Greek god like powers of flexible swift and total policy reversal<p>Uncle has <br />
Near Greek god like powers<br />
of flexible swift and total <br />
policy reversal </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b8d2cd6777970c2018-01-07T14:25:57Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZPaine Uncle a sore and vengeful loser ? To say the least But look now Both Cambodia under the Vietnamese factions...<p>Uncle a sore and vengeful loser ?</p>
<p><br />
To say the least </p>
<p>But look now<br />
Both Cambodia under the Vietnamese factions control<br />
and Vietnam Herself are on Uncles side <br />
And key parts <br />
of the contain China great game </p>Paine commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201b7c9431551970b2018-01-07T14:23:40Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZPaine The moderates in The PRC leadership Had long since warned the US about Their own Factions " radical notions "...<p>The moderates in The PRC leadership<br />
Had long since warned the US about<br />
Their own Factions &quot; radical notions &quot; <br />
Compromise was rejected for a fast bail out <br />
And aggressive containment <br />
Including <br />
A massive agit prop campaign </p>
<p>The Uncle maneuvering between factions and forces<br />
was continuous and utterly amoral from then on <br />
Till long after the tragedy was over between Lady History&#39;s &quot;agents &quot; <br />
And Her innocent victims </p>RC AKA Darryl, Ron commented on 'Links for 01-05-18'tag:typepad.com,2003:6a00d83451b33869e201bb09e6440b970d2018-01-07T14:21:51Z2018-01-07T18:18:23ZRC AKA Darryl, RonThanks for clearing that up. I share your sentiments then although my anger at hacking is complicated by my own...<p>Thanks for clearing that up. I share your sentiments then although my anger at hacking is complicated by my own IT experience and understanding which informs me that hacking is an inevitable and continuous consequence of meeting corporate objectives to reduce wage employment. A network system cannot be both open to access and extensible to modification and yet remain consistently secure. Restricting access and change are conflicting objectives to open access and modification. When commercial computing standards committees settled upon IP for internetworking then future hacking was baked in. That should have been known given the prior experience with Advanced Research Projects Agency Network (ARPANET).</p>