If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Re: 5 days out, post your predictions here

Originally Posted by spydertl79

Rasmussen was the most consistently inaccurate and the most biased poll in the last election

Where did you hear that, MSNBC? Rasmussen and Gallup were within 1/2% on their final projections in 2008 if I remember right. Gallup and Rasmussen have been consistently right more than most all of the others. I think all of the polls are biased, statistics say what you want them to say to some degree. Nonetheless, i have mute confidence in these two than the rest. As i said, we shall see soon enough.

I find it interesting that a couple people have Obama winning Virginia, but not Iowa. I feel like Obama's doing much better in Iowa.

I agree with this.
I think Virginia is tucked away for Romney at this point.

I have it as razor close 271-267 for Obama
I actually think Romney wins the popular vote as democratic voter apathy will result in huge wins for Romney in the sout.

I am pretty confident Obama takes Ohio where his Union/Manufacturing folks will ride him to the win.
I have Wisconsin in an upset for Romney. The state seems to be fading towards towards the GOP also getting a boost with the Ryan ticket.
Though Obama holds Iowa for the win.

Where did you hear that, MSNBC? Rasmussen and Gallup were within 1/2% on their final projections in 2008 if I remember right. Gallup and Rasmussen have been consistently right more than most all of the others. I think all of the polls are biased, statistics say what you want them to say to some degree. Nonetheless, i have mute confidence in these two than the rest. As i said, we shall see soon enough.

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2

Nate Silver and the staff from five thirty eight ran a statistical analysis on every poll in the 2010 election and found an average 4% bias in favor of Republicans.

I have found 538 to be biased to the left but their criteria in this situation seems to be fairly straight forward. A few of the other sites had Rasmussen as the most accurate in the 2008 election. I believe that guessing voter turnout proportions is the key and no one really "knows" until election day who is going to show up. Either way, they all seem to converge as the election nears and they are all moving toward a dead heat nationally. Sandy has thrown a huge monkey wrench into this election...who knows what ifs going to happen at this point. It should be interesting to say the least.

I predict that the liberal media will pretty much guarantee that Obama has won the election way before people start voting, almost as if to discourage republicans from bothering to go to the polls. Wait, nevermind, that is already happening.

I have no idea who is really going to win this thing but i do think it is going to be a close race. I don't want to predict a voting conspiracy, with Obama winning with suspicious things going on at the polls, with Sandy and the UN "monitoring" the UNITED STATES election. So, I will just say that I hope the best man wins, the man who can turn this economy around and doesn't have an alternative agenda to turn this country into a socialist regime.

And here I was, actually being objective with my map. Then I see maps with people saying Romney wins Michigan and Wisconsin, which goes counter to pretty much everything most polls have said up until now. Objectivity is a lost art...

If I could take your pain and frame it, and hang it on my wall,
maybe you would never have to hurt again...

Re: 5 days out, post your predictions here

Originally Posted by Locke

And here I was, actually being objective with my map. Then I see maps with people saying Romney wins Michigan and Wisconsin, which goes counter to pretty much everything most polls have said up until now. Objectivity is a lost art...

I am being objective, I just believe that 4 toss-up states will go to Romney and not to Obama. Michigan is really the only reach...Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado have as good or better chance of being red as they do blue. If i swapped out Michigan with Ohio, would you feel better?

I am being objective, I just believe that 4 toss-up states will go to Romney and not to Obama. Michigan is really the only reach...Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado have as good or better chance of being red as they do blue. If i swapped out Michigan with Ohio, would you feel better?

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2

The auto bailouts have all but given Obama Wisconsin, Michigan, and most likely Ohio. All the polls reflect this. Why would you give them to Romney, other than sheer hope...?