Dow Jones Today is Unimpressed with Weak Jobs Report

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over daily movements, we do like to keep an eye on market changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) is relatively unchanged today, up seven points, to 15,451, at 1:30 p.m. EST, after a weaker than expected private sector jobs report. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) was down two points to 1,753.

There are two U.S. economic releases affecting the blue-chip index today.

The private sector jobs report gives economists an advance idea of how the government's main jobs report will turn out. Analysts expect the Labor Department on Friday to report that the public and private sectors added 190,000 jobs in January, after only adding 74,000 jobs in December. December's weak report was attributed to bad weather affecting jobs and reporting.

We will have to wait and see what happens on Friday. Unless the January jobs report is also terrible, which seems unlikely, the basic story of the past few years remains unchanged. The economy continues to add roughly 180,000-200,000 jobs a month, which combined with baby boomers retiring is lowering the unemployment rate faster than many expected. More people with jobs and a lower unemployment rate is good for the economy. The flip side of this is that it may be bad for the market.

The Federal Reserve has been surprised by how fast unemployment has fallen. As such the Fed taper of its economic stimulus has started with unemployment near its target of below 6.5%. With the central bank purchasing fewer long-term assets each month, I expect rates to stay above last year's level and profit growth to be challenged.

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