What a lockout could mean for Heat

Barring an agreement or an extension, the NBA owners could lock out the players as of early Friday morning.

This will lead to fear among Heat fans, about the possible implications.

Here is what is likely, and unlikely:

LIKELY. That the lockout will last several weeks, if not months. Until the season gets closer, there won’t be much impetus for the sides to come together. That means that free agency will be delayed indefinitely, and that young players such as Norris Cole and Dexter Pittman won’t be under team supervision. This will make it easier for teams with several returning players than those that are trying to incorporate many new ones.

UNLIKELY. That the entire season will be lost. Yes, the sides are far apart. But they can’t be that stupid, with the economy still weak and the game at a popularity peak. Can they?

LIKELY. A new CBA, when reached, will include an adjustment to the salary cap. Teams will have less to spend. Maximum contracts will be shorter. It’s also quite possible that the mid-level exception will be modified, or removed altogether. That’s because, in the end, the players will bend and break part some. That’s what happened in 1999.

UNLIKELY.

The players agree to a deal that includes retroactive “claw backs” of already-agreed upon salaries. That’s one of the worries of Heat fans, afraid that it could lead to a breakup of the Big 3. But remember how much power the top players wield. Plus, it’s not really in the league’s interests, no matter what it says about competitive balance, to break up the squad that did so much to spike the public’s interest, and boost the television ratings.