. . .here we go again. Nope NEVER happens in real life that a team gets a bunch of trips to the free throw line. How about 'because they got fouled'? A statistical simulation with any randomness thrown in especially when combined with another set of numbers WILL produce outliers, just like real life will. THen when you add in that the basic raw numbers are effected by things like individual match ups and defensive ratings.

Its not going to just add up the averages and give you the exact number. You got pretty close to your normal number of statistical fouls per 240 minute game. Just more of them happened to be shooting fouls. Statistically, my team shot five more free throws in 240 positional minutes than my raw stats per 48 would indicate. Big deal. IN this case, basically, Joe smith came in for a period late in the game and hit several free throws. I am waiting to see you dig out the games where YOU got 'Too many' free throws.' I haven't seen you complain that YOU got too much of something or did 'too well' in any category. Heck, first time we played you got 35 free throws to my 11 and won by two. Didn't see you posting that something was 'wrong' then.

Quote: Originally Posted By a_in_the_b on 1/27/2009. . .here we go again. Nope NEVER happens in real life that a team gets a bunch of trips to the free throw line. How about 'because they got fouled'? A statistical simulation with any randomness thrown in especially when combined with another set of numbers WILL produce outliers, just like real life will. THen when you add in that the basic raw numbers are effected by things like individual match ups and defensive ratings.

Its not going to just add up the averages and give you the exact number. You got pretty close to your normal number of statistical fouls per 240 minute game. Just more of them happened to be shooting fouls. Statistically, my team shot five more free throws in 240 positional minutes than my raw stats per 48 would indicate. Big deal. IN this case, basically, Joe smith came in for a period late in the game and hit several free throws. I am waiting to see you dig out the games where YOU got 'Too many' free throws.' I haven't seen you complain that YOU got too much of something or did 'too well' in any category. Heck, first time we played you got 35 free throws to my 11 and won by two. Didn't see you posting that something was 'wrong' then.

Im sorry I know that this is a difficult concept to grasp but real life has nothing to do with sim behaviors

Ray Allen does not toe up to the 3 point line and roll dice to determine whether or not his shot goes in - he does not go into the shot attempt with a predetermined chance of making the shot that actually impacts whether or not he makes that shot

the coaches do not ascribe x # of FTAs to a player before the season starts and then work an algorythm to determine whether he gets fouled depending on his opponent's predetermined tendency to foul

You don't get it. It involves random numbers, which means, yes, outliers DO happen. Statistical modeling does contain noise and variance.

And complaining because a simulation models real life behaviour too well is a quite interesting perspective. It involves random numbers. That means that its going to vary. Probability doesn't work the way you seem to think it does, especially when you have two differing probabalistic systems interacting. Again, was the earlier game in which you had 35 free throws to my 11 and won by two 'nonsense' as well?

Quote: Originally Posted By a_in_the_b on 1/27/2009You don't get it. It involves random numbers, which means, yes, outliers DO happen. Statistical modeling does contain noise and variance.

And complaining because a simulation models real life behaviour too well is a quite interesting perspective. It involves random numbers. That means that its going to vary. Probability doesn't work the way you seem to think it does, especially when you have two differing probabalistic systems interacting. Again, was the earlier game in which you had 35 free throws to my 11 and won by two 'nonsense' as well?