Putin’s push to win over Turkey and press his advantage in Syria

On July 27, the Russian peacekeepers stationed in Transnistria, along with Transnistrian troops, crossed the Dniester River into Moldova as part of a military exercise. The exercise in and of itself was supposedly based on Russian and Transnistrian troops responding to a terrorist attack at a water purification plant, and in pursuit of the terrorists, they crossed the river and landed on Moldovan territory. Russian and Transnistrian troops crossing a border that had been in dispute since the civil war of 1992 was enough the sound the alarm in the capital of the official Moldovan state, Chisinau, as it was interpreted, not unjustifiably, as a rehearsal of an invasion of Moldovan territory.

This specific incident follows a series of Russian microaggressions in the area. Also, it is in line with Putin’s wider interference, as he has long advocated the independence of the Russian-speaking Transnistrian state that has only been recognized by Russia.

If any of this sounds familiar, it is because it follows the same tactical pattern that Putin has used in other areas of his immediate neighborhood, the most telling of which was the annexation of Crimea and the Kremlin’s support of Russian-speaking separatists in East Ukraine. All of that makes the West anxious, and especially Europe, which seeks to approach former USSR states that Putin considers his sphere of influence.

Despite the fact that this specific incident was of a small scale and entailed a degree of deniability, one cannot but wonder how much Mr. Putin can push his luck with such tactics before it has consequences. Sanctions have already been imposed on him by the West. Of course, the Russian president has proven time and again that he places greater priority on his geopolitical dominance than any possible economic hardship in his country, even if the latter affects his own cronies. Thus, it is debatable if harsher economic sanctions will create any desirable effect. Russia has already suffered in that area and Putin seems undeterred, using those very sanctions as a scapegoat in order to convince his electorate of the economic war waged against them by the West.

All this coincides with the restoration of the relationship between Russia and Turkey, at a time when the West seems to be losing another difficult but indispensable ally. Despite the claims that it had been planned beforehand, what matters is that Putin was the first head of state to visit with President Erdogan after the attempted coup. And the resentment of Turkish authorities following the lack of support for the administration by its Western allies at the time of the coup creates the perfect conditions to push Turkey in Putin’s arms.

Erdogan accuses the U.S. of partaking in the coup plot and for protecting Fethullah Gulen. That’s a good enough excuse for him to silently withdraw from an unpleasant collaboration that forces him to tolerate cooperation with the Kurds in Syria, who the U.S. openly support.

As for Europe, Erdogan actually has the upper hand when it comes to his deal to reign in the refugee crisis. Breaching the deal will have two costs for Turkey: visa liberalization and resumed accession talks. The first might actually be a hit for Erdogan. As for the second, from the moment the negotiations first froze in 2006, the Turkish president became confident this was just an empty promise. In any case, it is doubtful he even wants it himself, given his recent turn toward the East and his intention to reinstate the death penalty, which is a clear red line for any member of the EU.

With the U.S. incapable of openly supporting the anti-regime forces in Syria, and with Europe weighed down by a multitude of crises and desperate to rid itself of the terrorist threat, the way is open for Putin to follow his own strategy in Syria. That will almost certainly include the restoration of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, creating a peculiar alliance between three authoritarian, despotic rulers. A collaboration between Putin, Erdogan, and Assad may very well put an end to the threat of ISIS. But what will happen to the Kurds and other rebels in Syria? What does this all mean for the future global status quo?

About the Author

Vasilis Chronopoulos
is a 5 year veteran of Greek SOF having served in 35th Mountain raiders battalion and in the Zeta amphibious raiders battalion. Now he is a freelance security contractor primarily working in the maritime security industry. Follow him on Twitter @billxronopoulos

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Carl C

Gee, why am I not surprised about this, especially Transnitria? Because I do my homework?
I warned everyone about the Transnitria thingy about a year ago. Ever since the civil war in 1992, Russia has had 1,500 to 2,000 troops in Transnitria protecting the Russian speaking people from Moldova in the province of Transnitria. During that civil war, the Transnitrians lost some land to Moldova before Russia intervened.
Putin has been wanting to bring this group of Ruskies back into the Bear's den since before the civil war but there are a few little problems. Transnitria is land locked between Moldova and Ukraine with no major airports or even much of a highway. If Putin annexed Transnitria back into Russia, it would be very easy for Moldova and Ukraine to force Putin to release Transnitria by setting up road blocks all around Transnitria and starving them out, you know, laying siege to Transnitria.
There is only one real solution to this problem. Putin takes Odessa, Ukraine's largest remaining port (hey, Putin already has Crimea and three eastern Ukraine states, he could always use another major port), with his Black Sea Fleet, sends his troops less than 10 miles up a major highway to the southern border of Transnitria, they take back the lands with Russian speaking people still held by Moldova, you know, just what the Ruskie military exercises were about, annex Odessa and the small tip of Ukraine to the southwest of Odessa into Transnitria to provide Transnitria a major port for food, supplies, and Russian troops to access Transnitria. End game, Putin.
"But", you say, "Ukraine and Moldova would fight back and take Odessa and Transnitria back."
Not if Putin stages military maneuvers and attacks in the east and from Crimea, like he is right now, to tie down Ukraine and NATO troops, and then stages an airborne assault to take Kiev just like he did with Crimea, rounds up the CIA embedded Ukraine leaders, tries them with a military court in the alley for treason and executes them, seizes control of Kiev, annexes Ukraine back into Russia, and then tells the NATO troops to leave his country.
Gee, what a coincidence the Ruskies are staging military maneuvers in Transnitria to take back the rest of the land with Russian speaking people from Moldova and are staging military maneuvers and attacks in the east and Crimea. Who would have figured?
I do my homework.
BTW, Erdogan is playing Russia against the US to get what he wants, especially since he is convinced Obama staged the coup against him. You can bet Putin knows this, is probably getting ready to stage his own coup to get rid of Erdogan and put someone in power friendly to Putin. I would not be surprised to find out that Putin helped Erdogan defeat the coup to prevent Obama from putting a US puppet in power in Turkey to stop Putin's efforts in Syria but Putin isn't stupid enough to be anyone's sucker.
People are grossly underestimating the intelligence of Putin and his generals. He isn't perfect but he isn't stupid either.
That is my best guess and, right now, it is looking pretty good.

Leo W

Politics makes very strange bedfellows indeed. Traditionally, Turkey and Russia has been historical enemies going back to the old days of the Ottoman Empire and Tsarist Russia, through the Cold War with Turkey serving as the linchpin against Soviet ambitions for a warm water naval port and trade route. But with the seemingly aloof (and dare I say incoherent response) by the Obama administration dealings with both Russian and Turkey, as well as the EU's failure to control the refugee situation and Islamic terrorism with naive moral standings, I guess it was only natural for these two despots to overcome past historical mistrust to forge a new Middle Eastern sphere of influence.