Government spending could prove a welcome boost for economic growth this year, while industry is expected to contribute less. High employment supports further consumption growth, despite rising pessimism among consumers.

Article 50 was extended during the EU Summit of 21-22 March. The new cut-off date is 12 April, the deadline for UK to either approve the Withdrawal Agreement or come up with a follow up plan that includes a decision on holding European Parliament (EP) elections.

An extension of article 50 is highly likely now that the British Parliament approved this outcome on 14 March, However, given complications around holding a third meaningful vote on the deal, the final decision on the extension could come as late as 29 March.

Our early warning system based on the yield curve continues to point at a recession in the United States in the second half of 2020. However, our ‘recession radar’ suggests that the US economy is not in recession yet and is not likely to be in the near term.

We expect global economic growth to weaken further in the coming years. Based on indications on financial markets and weakness in the American housing market, we have penciled in a recession in the US in the course of 2020.

Macron’s ambitious reform plans were blocked by the yellow vests protests last year. In an attempt to reaffirm his authority he has launched the “Grand National Debate”. Afterwards Macron will announce his new plans.

The first months of 2019 show a mixed, but weak picture as far as economic activity is concerned. The National People’s Congress of 2019 focused on emphasizing stability, but this was combined with contradictory goals.