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Thursday, November 6, 2014

Hey Nation, Take a Deep Breath

It’s that time every two years or so when all the political talking
heads out there do their best to digest and explain what happened in the election.

They list lessons learned and often describe major shifts in
the American electorate. As you peruse the web and watch cable news, you’ll find
people saying that this election was a repudiation of the president, or that it
proves America’s support for a more conservative agenda. You’ll also hear
people saying this leaves the Democratic Party in disarray, or that it sets the
GOP up nicely for the next presidential race. You might even see some people
describe it as a seismic shift to the right by the nation.

But you don’t have to look too far back to see some of the
same people saying the exact same thing about the opposite parties.

After the 2012 election, pundits collectively mourned the
death of the GOP. They described that election as a sign of a changing and more
diverse American electorate.They said
Democrats had unlocked a secret weapon in their use of technology and social media,
and that it would take years for the other side to catch up. They said the GOP would have to change dramatically,
both in its appeal and its approach, if it hoped to ever win elections
again.

So, did it? Is that what happened?

The simple answer is no.

Here’s the real lesson to be learned from the 2014
elections -- possibly the only lesson: Democrats really suck at voting in off-year elections.

It may sound like an excuse, or even like some political mumbo
jumbo. But it’s not. It’s a fact.

Generally speaking, over the past few decades about 60
percent of voting-eligible Americans vote in the typical presidential election.
In non-presidential years, that drops to 40 percent.

Voting in presidential years compared to off years.

Just look specifically at a few of the states (these numbers
are preliminary).In New York, where
there wasn’t a heck of a lot on the line, the total number of voters this year
was 3,509,641. In 2012, that number was 7,135,322. That’s 3.5 million fewer voters
in 2014 than in 2012.

You see the same story when you look at the states more
heavily involved in the “Battle for the Senate,” which are also typically up
for grabs in the race for the White House. In Colorado, approximately 1,886,657
votes were cast in 2014. In 2012, a total 2,571,846 Coloradans voted. In Iowa, where voting is taken quite seriously,
some 1,119,914 people cast ballots in 2014. In 2012, Iowa saw 1,589,951, or 81%
of active voters.

You can look at every state, with highly contested races or
not, and it’s the same story. North Carolina in 2014: 2,717,920 voters; 2012
saw 4,505,372. It goes on and on.

Political pros know about this smaller off-year electorate
and know that it’s quite different than the presidential electorate. Simply put, there are a lot of Democrats and Independent
democratic-leaners in the vote-only-in-presidential-year population. These are what we in the business call “soft Dems.”
They are not soft in their beliefs, just soft in their voting habits.

Why they don’t typically vote in off years, and why they didn’t
this time, is a great question. The Democratic Party is the party of the marginalized. Maybe they collectively don’t feel there’s much on the
line when the president isn’t on the ballot. This year, maybe they felt the same
malaise and frustration with Washington that made so many Republicans vote and, instead of voting, they just stayed home. Anger is a better motivator than frustrated support.But there's more to it than that. For some reason, when conservatives/GOP supporters are frustrated with government, they are more likely to vote. When liberal/Dem supporters are frustrated with government, they are more likely to disengage. We've seen this in the past few cycles, a frustrated electorate equals major GOP gains. Why? Well, that's a deeper question than can be answered here.

Still, as people out there talk about repudiations of the president and shifts
in the electorate, it’s important to remember that, even though these soft Dems
didn’t vote this time, they are still out there somewhere. Past behavior tells us, they will likely
vote again in 2016.

As the Republicans among us gloat and Democrats mourn,
we should all take a collective breath.The Senate has changed hands. That’s true. But it’s still the same America that elected President Obama
two years ago, which is the same America that gave Republicans a landslide in 2010
(an off year).

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About Me

I'm a writer, a husband and a father of four. I once worked in news in Washington, D.C., and served as a speechwriter for a spell. Now I work in upstate New York, teach and help raise our kids. This is where I write about it.