The UK's immigration crackdown will lead to a loss of international talent

Cuts to foreign student numbers mean a future Indian prime minister might end up studying in Sydney rather than Sussex

International students at Wigan College. 'A substantial number of international university students come via the UK FE sector, which has seen numbers fall by almost 50%.'
Photograph: Christopher Thomond Christopher Thomond/CHRISTOPHER THOMOND

The government is making significant progress towards its target of reducing net migration to the UK to less than 100,000 per year. Figures published on Thursday showed estimated net migration down to 153,000 in the year ending September 2012 (from 242,000 in the previous year). But this has come at a cost – in their haste to meet the target, ministers have changed the rules to keep out migrants who can bring huge benefits to the UK.

The decline in immigration has been driven in large part by falling numbers of international students. Focused on their target, it has made sense, at least in the short term, for ministers to focus on students, simply because they are the largest single group arriving in any given year (accounting for around 60% of non-EU immigration). Put simply, while international students are included in the net migration target, the easiest way for the government to make progress towards it (and indeed the only way to meet it) is for ministers to seek significant reductions in their numbers. For all the talk of the UK being "open for business", the government's target is completely incompatible with growth in the international student market in the UK.

Much of the political rhetoric around students has focused on abuse of the visa system. In the past this has been a major problem – the steps taken by the previous and current governments to shut down so-called "bogus colleges", and reduce the number of students with no real intention of studying – were overdue. Abuse of the student visa regime remains an issue, and one that the Home Office need to tackle, but the recent reductions in numbers are not accounted for simply by the government "cut[ting] out abuse", as immigration minister Mark Harper put it yesterday (the reduction in numbers significantly exceeds even the highest previous estimates of abuse). Large number of genuine students are being kept out (or put off) too.

All this comes at a cost. Education is one of the UK's most successful export sectors, albeit an export sector (like tourism) that mostly works by bringing customers (students) to the UK rather than sending goods abroad. International students contribute an estimated £8bn to the UK economy every year, paying high fees to universities and colleges and making a valuable contribution to local economies. The students turned away, or being put off, from the UK would have been customers for bars, shops and restaurants, as well as for colleges, at a time when sources of growth are few and far between.

With higher education facing drastic funding cuts, universities were relying on growth in the international student market to fill the gaps in their finances. Although higher education has, so far, been much less badly affected than other parts of the education sector, UK universities are still concerned. A previous trend of rapid growth has been halted, and a substantial number of international university students come via the UK FE sector, which has seen numbers fall by almost 50% – the full impacts of the new rules on universities have yet to be seen.

Particularly worrying is the fact that many strategically important Stem (science, technology, engineering, and maths) departments depend heavily on international students for their very existence. The student unable to get a visa to study at a UK FE college this year might have been the star student in a university maths department in 2015, and the top lecturer in that department in 2030.

As well as bringing immediate economic benefits, foreign students bring dynamism, innovation, and international connections which can benefit the UK in the long term. Fewer Indian students now (down 38% in the year to March 2013) might mean that 2015's IT entrepreneur finds herself graduating from Stanford, handily located for Silicon Valley, rather than from Imperial, handily located for Silicon Roundabout. Or that 2020's industrial magnate finds himself fondly remembering student days in Toronto, rather than Manchester, when making his investment decisions. Or even that India's prime minister in 2030 finds that she has a greater affinity with Australia, the country where she completed her graduate studies, than with the ever-more-distant former colonial power of the UK.

None of this is to say that there are not difficult trade-offs here. Taking steps to reduce abuse in the visa system, for example, will always lead to some genuine applicants being turned away. But in their rush to meet an arbitrary net migration target, the government are making bad decisions; decisions that will, in the long-term, do more harm than good.