USDA Shows Corn and Soybean Production and Stocks Down, Prices Up

Source: USDA

Wed, 2011-01-12 16:15

USDA released several reports today, including the 2010 crop production summary. Corn production was down 5% from last year, while soybeans dropped only 1% from last year. Stocks are also down. Corn stocks are down 8%, with a total storage of 10 billion bushels. There are 2.28 billion bushels of stored soybeans, down 3% from 2009.

The WASDE report was also released, and included a 10¢ raise on both ends of the corn price range to $4.90-5.70/bu. season-average soybean price range is projected at $11.20-12.20, up 50¢ on the lower end of the range.

2010 Crop Production Summary

Corn for grain production is estimated at 12.4 billion bushels, down 1% from the Nov. 1 forecast and 5% below the record-high production of 13.1 billion bushels set in 2009. U.S. grain yield for 2010 is estimated at 152.8 bu./acre. This is down 1.5 bu. from the November forecast and 11.9 bu. below the record high yield of 164.7 bu. set in 2009. Area harvested for grain is estimated at 81.4 million acres, up slightly from the November forecast and up 2% from 2009.

Soybean production in 2010 totaled 3.33 billion bushels, down 1% from the Nov. 1 forecast and down 1% from 2009. U.S. production is the second largest on record. The average yield per acre is estimated at 43.5 bu., 0.4 bu. below the Nov. 1 forecast and 0.5 bu. below last year's record high yield. Harvested area is up slightly from 2009 to a record high 76.6 million acres.

Grain Stocks

Corn stored in all positions on December 1, 2010 totaled 10.0 billion bushels, down 8 percent from December 1, 2009. Of the total stocks, 6.30 billion bushels are stored on farms, down 15 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.74 billion bushels, are up 7 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2010 indicated disappearance is 4.11 billion bushels, compared with 3.86 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on December 1, 2010 totaled 2.28 billion bushels, down 3 percent from December 1, 2009. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 1.09 billion bushels, down 11 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.19 billion bushels, are up 7 percent from last December. Indicated disappearance for September - November 2010 totaled 1.20 billion bushels, up 4 percent from the same period a year earlier.

World Supply and Demand

Corn

U.S. feed grain supplies for 2010-2011 are projected down reflecting lower corn production. U.S. corn production is estimated 93 million bushels lower as a 1.5-bu./acre reduction in the national average yield outweighs a 183,000-acre increase in harvested area. A 5-million-bushel increase in projected U.S. corn imports slightly offsets the reduction in output. Corn feed and residual use is projected 100 million bushels lower based on September-November disappearance as indicated by the Dec. 1 stocks. Corn used for ethanol is raised 100 million bushels offsetting the reduction in expected feed and residual use. Record December ethanol production, as indicated by weekly Energy Information Administration data, boosts corn use to date.

Ending corn stocks for 2010-2011 are projected 87 million bushels lower at 745 million. This is down 963 million bushels from last year. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 5.5%, the lowest since 1995-1996 when it dropped to 5%. The 2010-2011 marketing-year average farm price projection is raised 10¢ on both ends of the range to $4.90-5.70/bu. as cash and futures prices are expected to strengthen. Heavy early season marketings of corn priced well below current cash price levels are expected to limit the upside potential for the weighted average price received by producers.

Global corn production is lowered 4.7 million tons with the U.S. reduction and a 1.5-million-ton decrease for Argentina as untimely, persistent dryness during late December and early January reduces yield prospects in key central growing areas. Smaller reductions in corn output are also projected for Indonesia and Turkey, each down 0.4 million tons.

Corn imports are lowered for South Korea, Turkey and the Philippines, but raised for Indonesia. Corn exports are reduced for Argentina and Turkey, with a partly offsetting increase for Canada. Global corn consumption is lowered mostly reflecting reduced feeding in South Korea and Turkey. Global corn ending stocks are projected 3.0 million tons lower with more than two-thirds of the reduction in the U.S.

Soybeans

U.S. oilseed production for 2010/11 is estimated at 100.5 million tons, down 1.2 million from last month. Soybean production is estimated at 3.329 billion bushels, down 46 million bushels based on reduced harvested area and lower yields. The soybean yield is estimated at 43.5 bu./acre, down from last year’s record of 44 bu. Soybean crush is lowered 10 million bushels to 1.655 billion bushels. However, higher projected extraction rates for soybean meal and oil leaves production of both products nearly unchanged. Soybean exports are projected at a record 1.590 billion bushels, unchanged from last month. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 140 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.

The 2010-2011 U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $11.20-12.20, up 50¢ on the lower end of the range. However, early season marketings priced below current cash price levels are expected to limit the upside potential for the weighted average price received by producers. The soybean oil price is forecast at 48-52¢/lb., up 3¢ on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $320-360/short ton, up $10 on both ends of the range.

Global soybean production is projected at 255.5 million tons, down 2.3 million. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 50.5 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month due to lower projected yields. Although recent rains will help producers complete planting, earlier periods of unfavorable dryness have compromised yield potential, especially in some of the major producing areas. Paraguay soybean production is raised 0.5 million tons to 7 million due to increased area and favorable yield prospects. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2010-2011 are reduced 2 million tons to 68.3 million with Argentina and U.S. soybean stocks accounting for most of the change.