Authors

Campus Units

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Accepted Manuscript

Publication Date

2004

Journal or Book Title

Naval Research Logistics

Volume

51

Issue

6

First Page

873

Last Page

892

DOI

10.1002/nav.20033

Abstract

Design reliability at the beginning of a product development program is typically low, and development costs can account for a large proportion of total product cost. We consider how to conduct development programs (series of tests and redesigns) for one-shot systems (which are destroyed at first use or during testing). In rough terms, our aim is to both achieve high final design reliability and spend as little of a fixed budget as possible on development. We employ multiple-state reliability models. Dynamic programming is used to identify a best test-and-redesign strategy and is shown to be presently computationally feasible for at least 5-state models. Our analysis is flexible enough to allow for the accelerated stress testing needed in the case of ultra-high reliability requirements, where testing otherwise provides little information on design reliability change.

Comments

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Development programs for one-shot systems using multiple-state design reliability models. Naval Research Logistics, 2004, Vol. 51, No. 6, pp. 873-892. With Suntichai Shevasuthisilp, which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/nav.20033. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.