How I see the Seahawks approaching the #32 pick

A lot can happen between picks 1-31 to influence a teams plan, but here’s my best guess at what the Seahawks will be thinking going into Thursday’s draft.

Can they get a starting offensive tackle?

Michael Bowie is currently slated to be the starting right tackle. I like Bowie. He was put in a difficult situation last season coming up against the likes of Houston, Arizona and St. Louis. In some games he got pushed around (Cardinals on the road) but hopefully that experience will only benefit him going forward.

Yet I can’t help but feel like if they can get a day-one starter at right tackle, they’ll take that opportunity. No disrespect to Bowie, but he looks a lot more appealing as a backup than he does starting against the defenses in the NFC West. There’s also the Russell Okung factor. He missed another eight games last season. They can’t have another year using someone like Paul McQuistan at left tackle. They need a right tackle who can move across — either on a temporary basis or for the long haul if Okung can’t stay healthy (or if they can’t get him re-signed after 2015).

Unfortunately, finding a plug-in-and-play tackle with a late pick in round one isn’t easy. There aren’t many Joe Staley’s out there.

I’m convinced they had their eye on Ja’Wuan James. He has the length, footwork, experience and character to play left or right tackle and start immediately. He made 49 starts at right tackle for Tennessee in the SEC, featuring as a true freshman too. Tom Cable went to work him out at the Vols pro-day. He would’ve been just the ticket for a team that values long arms (35 inches) and size (6-6, 311lbs).

He seems to be the latest in a growing list of post-season risers at the position. In 2010 Trent Williams shot up boards after an excellent combine. Last year Lane Johnson wowed at the Senior Bowl and combine to move into the top five. And now James — who also shone in Mobile and Indianapolis — appears destined for the top-20. Miami will likely be his worst case scenario at #19.

If he somehow fell to #32 I think this could end up being a no-brainer.

Is there another player who fits the criteria?

I’m torn on Morgan Moses. He also has the length (+35 inch arms) and size (6-6, 314lbs) but he’s nowhere near as polished or comfortable as James. How much of an issue is conditioning? He looked gassed against Vic Beasley and Clemson. He can be inconsistent. He can also be dominant — as he showed against Jeremiah Attaochu. He also has starting potential on the blindside and could easily be off the board to Carolina at #28.

So that really only leaves Joel Bitonio. I suspect he’ll be there at the end of round one, unless Baltimore trades back into the late first round. Call it a hunch, but I think the Ravens would not only be interested in moving down — I think they’ll also rate Bitonio quite highly. I’m almost expecting a deal where San Francisco moves up to #17 for a receiver and Baltimore drops back before adding an offensive lineman.

He doesn’t have the length Seattle craves but neither does Taylor Lewan or Jake Matthews — and I think they’d consider either of those two. He has the athletic upside they’ll like and he can work on his upper body power. He has an excellent attitude and he’s versatile. If they seem him as purely a guard I’m not convinced they’ll be interested. If they see him as a legitimate starter at tackle — and plenty do — he has to be a very realistic option. Perhaps the only one if they intend to scratch this particular itch in the first round.

I don’t see the team drafting a guard in round one. They’re starting a converted defensive lineman at one guard spot and used a rotation to fill the other in 2013. This doesn’t look like a position they value highly enough to spend a first round pick. And the options aren’t good enough to make an exception this year.

Out of reach: Ja’Wuan James
Possibilities: Joel Bitonio, Morgan Moses

Which receivers are left on the board?

The Seahawks do need to add another receiver at some point. Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and Sidney Rice are all free agents in 2015. Rice and Percy Harvin have both missed considerable time in the last two seasons to injury. Golden Tate is now in Detroit. On paper there appears to be both depth and top-end talent at the position, but they’ll be relying on a degree of luck in terms of injuries.

The crucial thing for me will be to develop a player over the next year to potentially take on a bigger role down the road. They will be paying Russell Wilson a new contract next season, having already paid Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman (inevitable). They might have to try and re-sign or replace Cliff Avril. Drafting a wide out who can contribute in year one and turn into a featured receiver next season would be good planning.

The need pairs up with the talent available. It’s a rich class of receivers. If they don’t take one at #32, they may well take one at #64.

Whether they take one in the first frame will surely depend on who’s left. Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans will be gone in the top ten. If we see the next cluster going in the mid-teens the well may run dry by the end of round one. I think we’ll see pockets where the wide out’s are drafted. The first group (in my opinion) includes Watkins and Evans plus Odell Beckham Jr, Marqise Lee, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin and Cody Latimer.

I have a feeling they’d love to grab Latimer. He has the size and speed. He’s a terrific athlete (4.3/4.4 runner) with tremendous leaping ability (39 inch vertical). He doesn’t drop the football, he competes for everything. He’s an excellent and willing run blocker. He won’t fit every team because separation is an issue. He won’t fit a timing offense. But Seattle is happy to take 1v1 shots and let their guys compete. The ability to get open with a crisp route just isn’t as important when you’re taking shots at the sideline off play action.

I’m aware my take could differ quite dramatically from Seattle’s, but if Latimer and the rest of the top group are off the board they might be forced to wait until round two if they want value. Unless they want to take a chance on a brilliant athlete — and this is where we come back to the development side of things.

Martavis Bryant and Donte Moncrief are quite incredible athletes. Bryant ran a hand timed 4.3 at the combine (official 4.42) at a shade under 6-4 and 211lbs. Moncrief also had a hand timed 4.3 and an official 4.40 at 6-2 and 221lbs. Both managed a vertical jump of +39 inches. Moncrief also managed an 11-foot broad jump (Bryant had a 10.4).

It’s not often you find players with that combination of size and explosion. In terms of pure upside, they’re on a different level.

They also need time and coaching. They can both improve. That doesn’t mean you redshirt them, it means you bring them along gradually. And by 2015 you might have a player ready to do what Josh Gordon did in his second season.

There’s a catch though — and a reason why both could potentially be available at #32. Bryant appears very talented but immature. Having almost destroyed his career through sheer complacency, he recovered to have a solid 2013 season. And yet he was still doing stupid things like this. He wouldn’t be the first receiver to carry baggage — and it could be manageable. But it’s out there.

Moncrief’s 2013 was just incredibly underwhelming. Part of it’s down to the schizophrenic Ole Miss offense. Part of it’s on the player. His Missouri performance is tough to forget — he was very poor. Then you watch the Texas or LSU tape from 2012 and get excited. This team drafted Tharold Simon so they’ll know about Moncrief and how he destroyed Simon that year.

I wouldn’t expect either to be there at #64 and we know the Seahawks love to take a chance on rare athletic ability. They love to develop players. These are two prospects to watch at the back end of round one.

I appreciate the Seahawks feel positive about this young group. But there’s a heck of a lot of unknown here. Greg Scruggs has added weight and is coming off a serious knee injury. Jordan Hill didn’t really contribute as a rookie. Benson Mayowa had a productive pre-season in 2013 but can he take the next step? Will Jesse Williams ever contribute? And it’s very difficult to talk about the final three names who we know almost nothing about.

If several of those players step up to the plate — excellent. But you’re relying on that at the moment because they didn’t sign any veterans to make up for the loss of Chris Clemons, Red Bryant or Clinton McDonald. Hill should get a chance to replace McDonald. But they failed to lure Jared Allen to Seattle and Henry Melton chose Dallas. This actually looks like a pretty thin group right now with a lot of uncertainty.

The main issue could be the pass rush. Unless they plan to move Bruce Irvin back to defensive end, there’s a lot of responsibility on Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. It’d be good to add at least one more rusher to the group.

If Anthony Barr drops he will be intriguing. But even his most staunch critic doesn’t expect him to fall to #32. Dominique Easley would be ideal if you can see beyond the knee injuries. Adding Easley’s ability to destroy the pocket from the interior would create a different looking but still intimidating pass rush for the Seahawks. Ra’Shede Hageman is another option — although his lack of consistency is a concern. Easley is a much more explosive pass rusher when healthy.

The other two options and wildcards for #32 are Marcus Smith and Demarcus Lawrence. Smith might be the more intriguing option — he ran a 4.6 at the combine with a 1.57 ten yard split. He’s a former quarterback and needs time — his arms lack muscle definition and he can get stronger. Yet the potential is there.

The nagging doubt I’d carry would be the unpredictable nature of edge rushers transferring to the next level. For all the scaremongering about taking receivers early — pass rushers are the ones to worry about. Look how many surprising busts there have been over the years. The speed isn’t quite as effective at the next level and you have to be able to battle — hand use, strength, counter moves and speed-to-power are crucial. Smith’s a nice athlete, but he’s not a rare player. As good as he looked in college, he’d be a risky pick at #32.

Stephon Tuitt is a popular pick among the national media — and he has the unique size and length Seattle likes on both sides of the line. He’d also be an obvious replacement for Bryant if they wanted another big five-technique who plays early downs. I’m not overly convinced though that the Seahawks would add a player like this in round one. It’s hard to see his 2012 pass rush production translating to the next level — and I think any D-liner taken in round one better be able to get after the quarterback. You can find run defenders later.

153 Responses to “How I see the Seahawks approaching the #32 pick”

Just a quick question regarding a very late or UDFA that I like for the hawks…Kevin Smith from the Huskies. He has great speed and is a tough blocker. Reminds me a bit of Boldin when I watch him. Personally, I think he is exactly the type we bring in to be a special teamer this year and 5/6th WR and then add responsibility later on similar to Kearse.

I need to comment about Morgan Moses… there is no way they draft him. He falls outside of their narrowly defined parameters for athleticism on the offensive line. If you have been tracking the offensive lineman they have drafted and how they have performed (especially the 20 yard short shuttle, and 10 yard split in the 40), this pick would be very far outside that pattern. I think they would go for a guy like Jack Mewhort or Antonio Richardson if James/Bitonio was not available at #32 and they were determined to go right tackle before they would go Morgan Moses.

Fellow 12’s….let us not freak out. The draft is not likely to go like this, despite the fears expressed from time to time. But take heart…even if every single WR or OL has been selected ahead of the Seahawks, we could still choose from Jadeveon Clowney or Khalil Mack. If you are dead set on a WR, Allen Robinson would not be that bad a pick; or LDT at OL, given this mock draft below:

…..this is the worst case scenario draft where every single pick ahead of #32 is a WR or OL, meant to be a humorous point that no matter what runs occur, very good players are going to be there for the Seahawks.

I did this mock to tease Rob, who has come dangerously close to dropping mocks on us, back in the day when we were in love with the WR or OL du jour, that were basically nothing but WRs and OLs in every pick 1-31.

It’s not about getting a good player, it’s filling a perceived need with top tier talent. There is a lot of talk about 40 players with 1st round grades, but I think this draft will be one of the best ever down to 7th round and UDFAs. I think I’m almost more excited to see who is drafted between 4th and 6th than the top 2, unless Aaron Donald falls to 32 and Cody Latimer falls to 64. (We’re allowed to dream, right?)

As the draft approaches, a topic not entirely explored: Keeping in mind the Percy Harvin trade, for whom the Hawks gave a 1st, 3d, and 7th round pick:
1. Identify one top quality player from the current Hawks roster who is potentially trade-able.
2.What could that player be expected to bring in draft picks?
3. With which teams would the Hawks be most likely to strike a deal? Why?
4. Rob and SDB community, what would YOUR trade proposal look like?
5. An example might be: Malcolm Smith for Jacksonville’s 1st, and 3d round picks.
Why? The Super Bowl MVP from the best team in football would be a huge acquisition for Jax, who need a linebacker, and would be getting a proven champion. K.J.Wright will do just fine for the Hawks in that slot, thanks very much!
At pick #3 in Round 1 the Hawks would be guaranteed one of: Clowney, Robinson, Matthews, or Lewan and then proceed to #32, #64, AND #70 (3d round pick restored!) for WR, OG, and best defensive player available.
Speculate away!

I like your enthusiasm Mike but a first and a third for Smith is a whole new world of ambitious.

Most tradeable Seahawk? I’m not sure we have one to be honest. Usually it’s a big name guy in the midst of a contract dispute. Seattle is tying down its players. They might be Super Bowl champs but there’s no obvious player you’d be willing to deal who would bring home a kings ransom.

A small, former 7th rd linebacker (less than premium position!!! ) who’s gonna be a free agent soon and whose best asset is coverage ability (ie not an outside rush linebacker). For the #3 overall and more? I like our players a lot (being a homer and all) but beyond the realms of possibility into delusion….kuechly was one if the higher inside LB I remember in recent years and he went at what, 12 overall?

On a more serious note, they could probably land as high as a 5th for Smith. Turbin might fetch a 7th rounder. Irvin could go for a 3rd. Anywhere else the Seahawks lack the depth to shop their guys, or their depth lacks enough playing time to be desired by other franchises.

Actually I had thought of Irvin as trade bait but assumed a stronger case could be made for the “MVP”. Behind it all is the sense that trading up would benefit the Hawks more at this stage where the roster is strong and stable, unlike the early days when all the position groups were in dire straits and vast numbers of bodies were necessary for sifting. Perhaps it is still possible to contemplate a package, as above, with the addition of lower 2014.and /or 2015 low range pick(s) which might appear amenable to a club in the top 8 or so.

Trading Malcom Smith for a 1st round pick and a 3rd pick to the jags when they can easily get a better player at both those picks is very unlikely. If the hawks pulled off that trade, im sure everyone in the Jags front office would be fired while everyone in the Hawks front office would get some sort of promotion haha.

I think alot of people would agree that Malcom Smith isnt more valuable then Percy, When Healthy (again when healthy) Percy is an MVP candidate.

Believe me if that trade could happen, i’d be more then jacked. but not happening. SB MVP’s arent really worth as much as you’d like to think. Deion Branch anyone? and well Joe Flacco i dont think performed well last season either.

A trade that i could see happening, if any trade, maybe Okung but unlikely and again while unlikely because i believe a deal will get done, but Sherman for some firsts and some seconds. that would kind of suck, cuz i love that guy but hey you asked haha.

Stoked for the draft though. hoping the hawks can trade out of the 1st. have a good day and have fun on draft day!

Even if Manziel tumbles, the Seahawks would be better off trading the pick than taking Manziel and hoping to ship him off later. Hid value won’t go up sitting behind Wilson, and there’s an opportunity cost with passing up an immediate contributor. Mallett and Cousins haven’t been turned into high draft picks, and neither would any QB the Seahawks take.

I think Coach Pete’s penchant for a big split end and Martavis Bryant’s crazy athleticism makes him the top choice for 32. I believe that Dominique Easley will slip to 64 or maybe Kareem Martin.

I think the Hawks would have made more of an effort to bring back Gino if they were really worried about Bowie starting. Grab Laurent Duvernay-Tardif in round 4 and give Cable a year and I think we have a potential starter.

Also, in which universe, this one or some alternate one, could Pete resist Kelvin Benjamin if he falls to #32? An athlete of this skill set and size only comes along once a decade, and Pete has waited and hoped that the day would come, and it would not matter what concerns there are about Benjamin’s dropped passes or ego-centric attitude….Pete would see someone he could mold into his dream SE, who would make his team near-unbeatable. Bryant is his Plan B. It will be one of those guys in R1, and a RT in R2.

I would like to ask PC who is higher on their board and why between KB and MB. But I would also like to hear what you all have to say about that comparison! Big target in the red zone surely must be a very high priority for this year and PC has a history of deploying large WR’s to great effect. Two very special players, but which one do you think PCJS like more and why???

I’m not so sure the hawks will draft either of those players? They didn’t bring either one in for a private workout.. Not that means anything, but usually when your high on someone, you want to see them perform in person

Liked this article and its perspective. Seems now, for all the tackles and guards (if any) worth taking to be gone, would require fewer receivers and defensive linemen than expected to go. And the same is true for them, as well.

I speculated that a year at SAM would help Irvin develop his run D and complete his development as “the perfect LEO.” But then I heard an interview where PC said Irvin would remain at SAM, but evolve into a roaming Joker like Von Miller on passing downs. I’m pretty jazzed about the prospect of Irvin lurking up and down the LOS pre-snap and then shooting a gap. It could be a terrifying advance in the evolution of our defense and the endless quest to morph are schemes to optimize the special abilities of our personnel.

People keep talking about moving Bruce back to de. He gets pulled in nickel anyway as a LB so just have him play wde in nickel if he wins the spot in training camp or have him play the spinner with 3 downlineman. Hes primarily a SDE but qe have avrul for that FO will let avril walk and then bruce can just take over that steongsude rusher specialsit spot. One guy can be paid to do two things

….but you should probably insert Ealy, Nix and Dennard in, bouncing 3 of the above off. In any event, even this worst case leaves a number of very good players available (Bryant, Easley, Lawrence, Tuitt, Moses), all of whom are better than late-R1 picks the past few years. I believe Bitonio goes before James, because Bitonio can play LT, and James is strictly a RT. The teams in the upper-teens and 20’s who might need an OT really need a LT, and not a RT, so I suspect James will be there at 32. If not, there are several good RTs who should be there at 64.

I did like Kadeem Edwards, but started seeing other players I think would fit the Seahawks a little better. LDT, Russell Bodine or Cornelius Lucas should be draftable at the same spot as Edwards or even a round or two later.

I thought everyone might enjoy hearing Mike Mayock’s opinion of the top 100 players. He released his list today. He is a pretty respected evaluator, though no one is perfect, even the top GMs miss half the time. Here is the link:

The ability to deliver that punch with such long arms makes it near impossible to get around them. If Tiny is there R2, I would love to see what Coach Cable could do with him, particularly since he would not need to start right away….watch and learn for a year.

Man I hope that kid stays healthy this year. And I am basking in the possibility that Carp has worked his ass off this off-season and finally becomes the consistent, dominating road grade right next to a healthy Okung! And 3rd year Sweezy with 20 extra pounds of wallop!

I think the wild-card pick at 32 is cornerback Stanley Jean-Baptiste. He is big, VERY athletic and strong in press coverage but very raw because he is a converted wide receiver. He could develop behind Maxwell and turn into a Pro-Bowler for the next 4-6 years after that.

He’s a tad slower in speed and has to become more physical and learn how to play the press. But yeah, measurables are very close. He’s got a higher vertical too. I think it’d come down to ‘what’s in his heart’ like JS was saying. Sherman’s mind is what sets him apart, but I remember some of the same criticisms of Sherman when he was coming out as there are now of Jean-Baptiste. Stiffness in the hips, needs to learn to swivel them better, to learn bump and run coverage. All of that. Sherman adopted though.

I think Dontae Johnson is more likely to be drafted by PCJS. Baptiste will go to early, same with Keith McGill and both are 24. DJ ran a 4.45 40, has a 38.5 inch vertical, 124 inch broad jump, 6.82 3 cone, and a 11.06 60 yard shuttle which was at the top of this years draft class.

On top of that he has played both corner and free safety.He’s 6’2″, has a little bit shorter arms at 31 1/2″ and weighs 200 lbs. Has a faster 40 time than Sherm, almost the same vert and carries and extra 10-12 lbs. I’d be very happy if we pick him at the end of the 4th or with our first pick in the 5th.

The points you made about the R-1 Leo’s really makes sense. Bruce Irvin was the perfect Leo according to PC when we drafted him. The transition from the college game to the pro game does not always correlate with high draft choices . We have all seen that the best Leo we have had, or may ever have, Chris Clemens, was an UDFA wasn’t he?

For this reason I scratch DE Lawrence and DE Smith off of the R-1 options. Nice players, for sure, but opportunity cost don’t match.

Remember, every year players we thought for sure would go early don’t. Players we could not imagine being available at our pick are still sitting there.

The player I wanted badly a few years ago was Fletcher Cox. Imagine having Fletcher Cox now instead of Bruce Irvin…

Rob – I went back to some WRs I liked right after the season ended – Allen Robinson and Jordan Matthews. Both have high SPARQ numbers – not as high as Lattimer or Moncrief. It seems like both have fallen out of favor and I’m not sure I believe it. Both are 6’2″+ Matthews ran 4.46 Robinson a 4.6 (a tad slow) but 35 and 38 inch verts – and are good catchers and good route runners.

Have I fallen so in love with Lattimer/Moncrief/Bryant that I have forgotten about these guys – and I shouldn’t have?

I’m not sure either is a great option for Seattle. Matthews is pretty finesse, does his damage working in the slot exploiting zone. Doesn’t look like a great athlete on tape despite numbers. Has almost no explosion or spark with the ball in the open field – which is surprising given the number of screens they threw at Vandy. Robinson is the opposite – he’s plenty shifty in the open field but not much of an athlete. Great character but just doesn’t seem like the type of guy Seattle drafts early. Maybe at 64 he comes into play.

Watched Game Changers on the NFL Network – WRs – Landry; Robinson; Benjamin and TJ Jones. Very impressed by all of them – Landry and Robinson presented well and listened to Michael Irvin’s advice. Landry said he loved contact and going across the middle – Robinson talked about blocking for the running game. Maybe these guys fall to the second round and if so, I’d be happy with either!

Bruce Irvin –
1st year we needed an outside rusher and he did well for being so raw and without much of a push inside.
2nd year – my impression (please correct me if I am wrong) we had our outside rushers and given his athleticism they tried him at linebacker as well to try and get more athleticism on the field. I guess I didn’t see his trial of linebacker as a failure of him as a pass rusher, but more as a vote of confidence in his athletic ability and the staff trying to get the most athletically gifted players on the field. He did pretty well at playing linebacker given his first year playing this and did some outside rushing as well.
3rd year – you now have an incredible athlete who can line up and play multiple positions. imagine how we can disguise the defense with so much versatility. So if we can’t find an outside rusher in who we have or can draft, then put him on the outside and we have enough linebackers (esp with Toomer coming back…wasn’t there a ton of hype about him before he missed all of last season?) Hopefully somebody steps (Mayowa) up and we can then play him wherever we want given the situation.
I’m a Bruce fan and think we are selling him short and assuming he was a failure as a pass rusher. maybe I’m too optimistic.

I hope you’re right….I worry about Bruce Irvin. He just never seems to be where the ball is, never seems to make the big play, only makes the sack when uncontested, etc. I would love to see him make the big leap forward this season.

All of my hopes for Irvin are wrapped up in the @STL game. He was a beast in that game. I believe he had 9 tackles, the great INT that ET tipped him off on and the strip sack where he chased Clemons the entire length of the field and knocked the ball out of his hands. That to me is what Pete saw in Irvin. That is what I hope we get to see on a consistent basis from him this year.

There is no such thing as being too optimistic in the off season! I am hoping and expecting big things from BI this year. PC said he wants him to evolve into a Von Miller type Joker on passing downs. He could be a holy terror in that role and should play much faster at SAM now that he has the assignment variations down.

I wonder what’s up with Latimer? Has a team planted a false rumor hoping he will fall to them, or is there word out on an injury, or a character question has surfaced? I guess we will find out on Friday.

Jake, I will commit to remembering your prediction, and in the interest of fairness, I will even remember if/when you are wrong! You will hear about Jake… Oh, how you will hear about it if you’re wrong.

Side Note: Predictions of this nature are somewhat of a pet peeve of mine. Mostly they are made because they will give the predictor some mild bragging rights, or provide something one can refer back to in the future as proof that one knows what one is talking/typing about. Of course this veritable treasure trove of upside comes with the added perk that no one ever points out when these forecasts are incorrect, thus allowing the prognosticator a nearly endless supply of risk free suppositions…

Enter Michael M.

A man whose craving for comment section justice is nigh insatiable, and whose life is just boring enough that he is willing to keep a prediction tracking spreadsheet in order to administer it. So bring it on you seers of the selection, you prophets of the pick, you fortune-tellers of franchise favor. Deliver your daring deeds of divination, and let us see who among you is truly in touch with the draft.

P.S. I love you all. And no this is not a joke… Go ahead and throw ‘em out there, and I’ll post the results after the draft!

In fairness Jake, I don’t think any of us “heard it hear first” about trading down. There isn’t a single person reading this blog who hasn’t thought that the Hawk’s goal will be to move down. No offense, but the idea of moving down isn’t a groundbreaking one.

Also, Jake: I’m afraid I have seen that prediction (trading the Seahawks first round pick) in like ten to twenty mocks/comments, dating back to, oh, February 3rd or so. Not even close to “you saw it here first”.

Yeah Jake. Everyone expects JS to trade down if he’s got an opportunity to do so. He’ll jump.

He practically said so today in his ST interview. He says there’s a ton of later round talent that he wishes he had more picks for … translation … “I’m gonna do everything I can to trade back for more picks dammit!”

The other problem with Tuitt is that they lack measurables from him from the combine, since he had a broken foot. His weight has also been a concern. It’s under control now, but it wasn’t last year when he was at 330 and wasn’t as sharp in 2013 as he was in 2012. He didn’t do a good job keeping his weight down while rehabbing after undergoing surgery for a hernia in 2012.

So why did the Hawks draft Christine Michael last year? Weren’t there other positions that were of greater need than RB?

Most accounts say that PCJS had him ranked as a top of the draft player. The prospects of getting a guy they ranked as “elite”, regardless of position, was just to enticing.

I think the approach they took last year should give us some good insight into what they might do this year.

Taking positional need out of the equation, who is the player that the Hawks might have ranked very high that would fall? I can’t help but come back to Easley.

Bitonio, Tuitt, Hageman, are fine players, but they just don’t strike me as the same class of player as Irvin, Carpenter, Michael. They’d be fine picks, but they just don’t seem to have that explosive upside that the Hawks appear to look for.

So, baring a shocking fall by either Donald, Shazier, or OBJ, my prediction is Easley will be our first pick. I’m sure they’ll look to move back a time or two to maximize the value in the pick.

Really? I’d argue that Bitonio, Tuitt, and Hageman all have explosive upside. If Tuitt can return to the type of player he was in 2012 when he played DE in a 3-4 and looked like a surefire high first round draft pick then that’s exactly the type of upside they’d be looking for.

Same with Hageman if he could get his consistency issues ironed out. When he’s on, he’s dominating.

I don’t think Bitonio needs explaining on his upside, I think Rob’s done a good enough job explaining it.

I think they’re every bit as ‘upside’ players as Irvin and Carpenter. Maybe not Michael since his sparq was off the charts, but that’d be the only exception.

I’d classify Bitonio as a high floor guy. Incredibly solid player. I’d be perfectly happy if he were a seahawk. I just don’t see him as a swing for the fences, unlimited upside pick. To me, it just seems like PCJS like to go with truly unique, unlimited upside guys.

The other guys I listed are fine players, I just see Easley’s ceiling as much higher. If you hit with Easley, you’re talking Geno Atkins upside.

I was thinking Marcus Tubbs’ potential, which is what scares me. Blowing out knees twice is a big deal, especially for a guy relying on his quickness. It could be the ultimate “swing for the fences”. The question, is he so much better than the other options, that he is worth the gamble? Don’t forget, what is his downside as well if he loses his quickness?

These are the unknowns and why I would be leery of selecting him with a first round draft pick. Now if someone stood up and said that this guy would likely be a Suh, then perhaps it is worth the roll of the dice.

Considering we just won a superbowl, we need replacements that are solid players. It would be great to get the explosive player, but not at the expense of solid players who fill our needs. We need a right tackle, after next year we may also need a left tackle. We don’t have either. We have already tried out our backups, who our for the most part 7th round picks. When your 7th round pick plays better then the first round guys that tells you something about the line. Now maybe they will be able to fill the spots, but then they need backups for when they are injured. So we still need to draft offensive line.

The other part about explosive upside is that I would prefer it doesn’t come from a person recovering from two ACL injuries. Easley is one cut block away from being injured again. Surely one of our numerous practice squad guys could step up? If they don’t prove themselves then we have to start looking for more defense.

This is such a fun time of year and I literally have no clue what the Seahawks will do.

With that said, here’s my shock pick at 32…

Seahawks Select WR Bruce Ellington.

Why?

Harvin insurance. Basketball background. Unreal playmaker. Highly competitive. Yes, he’s small but is explosive and can make chunk plays. If he was 2 inches taller, I think he’s a top 5 WR in this class, which is saying something.

I have a few questions for you guys who know more about draft picks than I do.

1. Can we trade next years draft picks for some this year? Ex. Next years 5, and 6 for a 3rd this year? Or something like that. That way we can still have our first this year. (And we’ll have a load of picks next year)

2. Last year, and the year before, did the hawks bring in either C Mike or Irvin for a private workout? Did they show interest in either of these players?

I know they brought in Latimar this year, but it doesn’t seem like they been in contact with Bryant or Benjamin, Benjamin said he only talked to them at the combine.. So does someone they brought to the VMAC or went and visited mean they rank higher on there draft board?

The Seahawks seem to rarely bring in top prospects. They tend to arrange visits more from mid to later round guys. I thought at the time that the Latimer visit had to be a smokescreen, and makes him unlikely for Seattle. I think John & Pete were dragging a red herring with Latimer, when they are only really interested in very tall SEs, as in Benjamin or Bryant. We usually hear after the draft that Pete and other coaches secretly visited their top prospects at their home, so their interest was off the radar.

For example, if Pete and John would like to see Kelvin Benjamin available at #32, and are not really serious about Cody Latimer because they are seeking a 6-4 Split End, then they would love to hype Latimer up the boards so that a team ahead of them would pick Latimer and not Benjamin. You would think that such tactics would have little impact when a team has spent months analyzing a prospect, but incredibly, GMs do talk about the “buzz” around a prospect determining where they project him being selected.

Yeah but buzz isn’t just based on who teams have in for visits. From what I can tell it’s the media sources who have high level contacts with teams and their ears to the ground on who’s hot and who’s not. I’m sure visits play some part into it, but I’d imagine most of it is generated by the media sources and who they’re writing about.

when contemplating trading future picks, the general rule is that trading a future pick is worth less than trading a current year by roughly a round. So, a 2015 3rd round pick would be viewed value wise like 4th.

fwiw….the 5 draft analysts over at cbs sports (Rang, Brugler, Kirwan, etc) have their side by side mocks up (link below). A few notes:

– none of the 5 have Benjamin going in the first round
– only 1 of the 5 have James going R1

All of these guys have access to NFL reporters with insider contacts, but I believe few teams are actually leaking much real info, except that, when you see a player who was in all R1 mocks a month ago, and is in none now, that probably reflects a consensus that he has fallen down the boards.

It sounds like the reports of Benjamin blowing off a working from the coach that traveled to Florida to see him have taken a hit on him. I know Rob doesn’t seem to put much stock in that report but I can’t think of any other news out on him in the last month that could have affected his stock like that.

If Pete is in love with Benjamin, as I suspect he may be, this is good news for the Seahawks, because only 2 or 3 weeks ago, there was no chance for Benjamin to be there at #32. Ten years from now, we might find that Pete persuaded Benjamin to blow off the coach, and then leaked the story to Gil Brandt, so Benjamin would slip down.

Re our man Bitonio, he is going the opposite direction, and is showing up in most mocks in the 20s in R1. Most teams that need an OT badly enough to consider one in R1 are looking for a LT. The top 4 LTs (Robinson, Matthews, Lewan and Martin) will be long gone by the late teens. That only leaves Kouandjio (knee) and Bitonio to play LT. The later teams that need an OT are Miami, Carolina and others, and all those appear to be looking for a LT. Bitonio is a good pick, because he projects well to LT due to his athleticism, but if that fails, he is almost a sure bet at OG, so he is a very low risk selection. James, on the other hand, is strictly a RT, so I can’t see a team to project him to before the Seahawks.

Yeah right, like Benjamin is going to agree with Pete to turn down more guaranteed money on his rookie contract so he could drop to Seattle. Well, sounds like Pete will have to make up the difference by paying him out of pocket then.

Some teams are projecting Bitonio as a better fit at guard, so it really depends on whether the team selecting for a LT sees him as someone that can play there.

I personally would still steer clear of Kouandjio in the first round at least. He just didn’t look as fluid in his lateral movement in 2013 as prior to his injury, regardless of what his doc says.

As we debate over and over who will be our 1st. round pick I took the liberty to check how influential those 1st round picks are by checking their contribution on the last SB champions:

No. of 1st. rounders on the full roster -6. (out of almost 70 players populating the roster over the year)
No. of 1st. rounders that played over 70% of the snaps – 2. (Lucky we do have Earl and the beast)

2nd rounders ?

No. of 2nd rounders on the roster – 5.
No. of 1st. rounders that played over 70% of the snaps – 3. (Tate, Wags and Unger)

In the defensive linemen list above there are no 1st. or 2nd. round players at all. The top 2 picks in the list are Mebane and Hill in the 3rd round.

Could it be that maybe we have all been busy looking in the wrong place?

Never mind, it’s too much fun to stop.

Time for a prediction –

The Seahawks has never won a SB when picking a player in the 1st. round. They won’t change a winning formula and will avoid picking in the first this year too.

After hard deliberation I feel that the 1st. player picked will be Easley. Considering my record in predicting Seahawks picks over the last 3 decades is a perfect round number (0) it is safe to assume it will be Bryant/Latimer/Bitonio/James/Moncrief…

On second thought, just by mentioning those options they will not be pick either so if you want to nail this pick you should try the rest of your lists

In PC/JS we trust.

P.S. – I made a point of not mentioning a certain finesse receiver I like (and Rob doesn’t) just in case he has a chance…

I did until they brought him in for a visit. That is certain proof that the Seahawks are not seriously considering him….this was a pure red herring. Pete and John have no history of bringing in their priority R1 prospects for a very public VMAC visit, in fact just the opposite. They are hoping to promote Latimer so that a team ahead of them will pick him instead of Benjamin and/or Bryant. I believe the Seahawks are not interested in a R1 WR unless he is 6-4 or taller. If this was indeed the strategy, it has worked, for Latimer is now projected ahead of Benjamin.

John Schnieder said in an interview recently that they are mixing it up this year. They have brought in guys before that they wanted to look at, and another year they brought in guys that they were using for a smoke screen. He said this year they are using a blend of all of their tactics. So who knows.

As far as WR, I still struggle between Latiemr and Bryant. Think I like Bryant better.
Something I was just thinking about though, wouldn’t it be interesting if we took both James and Richardson? Or if we took a RT such as Yankey and put Bowie at LG or at least compete with Carp for LG.

You guys are right, I have the wrong name.
Damn, I wish I remembered who I was thinking was a G, that’s like 6’7″, better at run blocking, that could play RT better in our system. Was thinking it was him. OOPS

Pete and John did their pre-draft non-news conference, and Pete reiterated that they were emphasizing more than ever before the competitiveness of their prospects. To me, this rules out Hageman. Any other thoughts of prospects we have all been discussing that might not meet this standard? Easley would grade very high in that regard. Pete will, from time to time, give a second chance to a knucklehead (Bruce Irvin, Tharold Simon, etc) but those guys still had that competitive fire….Benjamin and Bryant might get in under the knucklehead exemption as well.

Pete is very big on rehabilitating a not just a player, but a man. he had a vision at USC of not just devleoping players, but developing kids into men. This crosses over into his charities A Better L.A. and his one in Seattle. He will give a guy a chance like Bruce Irvin if he feels he can turn them around.

I think its important to remember how nebulous the back half if the first round is. Smart Football did Ana analysis today, and on average the ‘pickers’ only managed even to predict 75% of the players picked, and most had less than five to the right team. After the first half of the first round, out if all the predictions made under 3% were actually accurate.

In other words, I’ll eat my damn hat if one of the players listed ‘out of reach’ in this article isn’t there for the Seahawks’ pick. And I’ll only be mildly surprised when they pass on him and take someone the ‘experts’ are sure would be there at 64.

Our fellow 12’s over at Field Gulls have a different take on the likely Seahawks draft choices (see link below). They have done a nice job of laying out a horizontal draft board which is probably the way the Seahawks board looks in their war room. It compares draft prospects to current Seahawks, to afford the opportunity to prioritize the draft based on team fit. Some key items:

– the horizontal board strongly suggests that the Seahawks would aim to trade down from R1 (though Rob makes a convincing argument that a reasonable trade is not likely to present itself)

– the board would rank only the following players as worthy of #32, and who might still be available: Shazier, Jernigan, Tuitt, Nix, Ford, XSF and Moses.

– despite these few prospects, it is important to remember that a number of likely suspects almost made the cut, and have only a slightly lower R2 grade….guys such as Lawrence, Benjamin, James, Easley and Bitonio.

….always interesting to get a second opinion from two guys (Davis Hsu and Derek Stephens) very familiar with the ways and means of Pete and John. I tend to share the view of Rob and many on this board that Tuitt, though Seahawky, does not provide much pass rush, that James is a better fit than Moses, and that Dee Ford, though a distinct Leo, doesn’t impress as much as Lawrence.

A couple of thoughts. I think that the Seahawks need this first round selection to pan out and become a decent starter. I am not sure that we need to swing for the fences, unless you feel that the guy will be a 5 time pro bowler. Which is why I am not as convinced we should select Easley. I could be wrong, but it sounds like if he was healthy he would be a top 20 talent guy. Rolling the dice on a guy who has big time injury concerns because he fell 12 spots doesn’t seem like a good bed. What makes me even less likely to want to roll the dice is the pure depth of this draft. Some years are bad or average, but this year is a good year. Why pass on a much more sure fire talent that in other years would be top 20 selections, and roll the dice? Completely swinging and missing, whether from injuries or a lack of focus, this year would be really bad. This first round draft pick we are going to rely upon to provide a starter or borderline pro bowler, for a very inexpensive price for the next 4-5 years. To continue winning Super Bowls over the next 5 years, we need this kid to be a success.

I continue to lean towards picking a DL in the first two rounds (preferably the first round). Whether that is a LEO position or a DE/DT, getting someone who can rush the passer and maintain our pass rush rotation is vital.

Picking up a shiny new WR would be great, but in a run first scheme, I do wonder if it makes more sense to select an OT early. If we truly want to run the ball and scramble a lot, having a flexible OT and depth on the OL would seem to be important. I am also a little concerned that WR’s tend to bust frequently.

I am one of the few here who like Tuitt after initially not being all that interested in him. He has good foot speed, but doesn’t really seem to have great technique coming off the line. Nor is he overly explosive at the snap, however how many 300 lbs DE’s are? Seems like the explosive guys are the 260 lbs LEO’s. I do like his flexibility to shift inside on passing downs, and he shows a very good job shutting off the edge. His 12.5 sacks the year before last can’t be flukes. Now having said that, I would also like Hagemon, and a later round flyer on Urban would also be interesting. I am pretty trusting of this management and whoever we select, I will have a lot of confidence that he will turn out well.

I’m more receptive to Tuitt too so long as he can keep his weight down and play like he did in 2012 when he had, as you noted, 12.5 sacks. His weight at that time was 312 and it ballooned to 330 last year after coming back from injury and he just wasn’t as effective.

He’s now at 301. Still he wasn’t able to provide any measurables because of a broken foot at the combine. So it’s still a question mark. But I don’t strictly see him as ‘non-explosive’ at the snap unless playing at the higher weight.

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