Japan’s rearmament will not be overlooked by South Korea: Foreign Minister

Overlooking Japan’s rearmament is unlikely to happen in South Korea and other countries according to the foreign minister of the East Asian republic on Monday. It is also not unusual for countries, especially South Korea and China, to become wary as the Abe Administration is leaning for amending the Constitution of Japan to give permission for its Self-Defense Forces (SDF) to exercise beyond the scope of self-defense.

“There are many countries including us that are worried about Japan’s rearmament,” South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-Se said. “A situation where [they] overlook Japan’s rearmament will not come.” The Japanese Constitution, drafted by the United States in 1947, gives no provision for Japan to carry out military duties except for defensive purposes. With the growing tensions and possible threats, in East Asia, the Shinzo Abe-led ruling bloc is seeking for a collective self-defense provision for the SDF.

The Korean foreign minister also reminded that the no-stern response of the U.S., as Secretary of State John Kerry and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel agreed to allow Japan modernize the SDF, does not mean a green light has been granted for Japan to carry out military moves with all liberty. “It means that [the military build-up plan] will be pursued within the scope of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, rather than that the U.S. will give Japan a blank check,” Yun said. The two U.S. diplomats met their Japanese counterparts in Tokyo early this month as part of the U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee meeting.

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Far East

“There are many countries including us that are worried about Japan’s rearmament,” South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-Se said.

Hmm, define “many”, because I doubt 2 or even 3 (North and South Korea and China) constitutes “many”.

Sam

I’m sure other countries affected by Japan’s war time aggression during WW2 will be worried. These include but are not limited to, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Taiwan (whether Taiwan is a country is a totally different matter), Burma, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. I should think these countries constitute ‘many’.

Far East

Those countries could be worried, but they are not, thus fueling further to what I stated, ie that it is only a handful of countries, and even then they do it more for domestic political reasons than out of true concerns.
I mean, China has a huge military build-up and South Korea do joint military exercise with Japan.
The other countries you mentioned, of which you left out the Philippines have not expressed any concerns, and at the countrary, countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, Australia, and others have close ties with Japan including on the military level….

Sam

Yes, I knew I forgot a country, thanks for that. It seems that the Vietnam and the Philippines do support Japanese rearmament. However as for the other countries I can’t find anything that solidly makes them either for or against Japanese rearmament. Also of note countries such as India seems to be wary of Japanese rearmament. The only reason I can give for the former two countries support is that they are hoping Japan can counter China’s growing influence in the region. Also I feel as if the reason why the other countries are silent is that in Asia, China and South Korea seem to be the only countries that can really oppose Japan diplomatically and thus the other countries do not want to openly oppose Japan. I would also argue against the point that S.Korea and China are only protesting it for domestic reasons than true concerns. The fact remains the context is very important. Japan still remains quite a nationalistic country, you only have to compare them to Germany to see how differently they view their pasts. Thus in this state, inflamed by territorial disputes (Dokdo/Takeshima), (Senkaku, Diayu), I feel as though there is genuine cause for concern.

Far East

Let me respectfully challenge that.
Today’s Japan has nothing to do with pre-WWII Japan, and neither does the rest of the world to, because it would then be necessary to set the historical context that at the time, a lot of western nations were imperialistic in nature, and that includes Russia, the US, Britain, France, Belgium, etc. Most of those had effective control over lots of Asian countries, such as Britain over China or the US over the Philippines.

Anyway, today’s world is quite different, and it is common knowledge that the economies of countries is completely intertwined in a way that no country whatsoever can wage a war without stringent repercussion on its economy, which, in turn, would render pointless the start of a war.

With this in mind, and the high powered state of the Japanese economy, there is virtually zero chance of Japan re-arming itself to wage a war. There is, however, good grounds for Japan, but also many other Asian countries to be weary of the so-called ‘peaceful rise’ of China, which turns out to be much more bullying and threatening, including toward Japan.

China has much more to gain in waging a war than Japan. We can see clear examples of that in the several wars China had since WWII, for example against India and even recently infringing on Indian territory up to 10km. Which peaceful country would do that??

When discussing with Chinese Internet Commentators, on the payrol of the CCP, their stance, which is quite constant no matter who you talk to is basically: “We’re not scare of starting a war against Japan, because it will hurt them more than us.”

It’s just the overall picture. When you look at it, it is just obvious Japan has no benefit to be aggressive. Unfortunately the same cannot be true about China, and much of the critical remarks made by their media really apply much better to themselves.

Sam

Thank you for your comment. Could I just add my own views?
Your claims seen a little bit circular. If as you say the world’s economies are intertwined then as Japan would have no reason to war, then neither would China. I actually disagree that China would gain more from starting a war with Japan. As a developing market China relies heavily on trade and going to war with Japan would draw in the U.S who is obliged to protect Japan. This would indeed prove devastating for China. If you give Japan the benefit of having changed completely from pre WW2, then I believe the same should be said about China during the 60’s. This was during Mao’s era and much has changed since then. Also whilst I do agree that China is infringing on the Senkaku Islands which is administered by Japan, I don’t think this should be used as a pretext for rearmament, merely because Japan seems to be doing the same to the Liancourt Rocks which is administered by Korea. Therefore if Japan feels a need to rearm because of threats to it’s sovereignty from China than the same argument can be used as to why South Korea feels a threat to their sovereignty and thus does not want Japan to rearm which was the status quo. Also more importantly, it is not like Japan is defenceless. It had a self defence force. Therefore from the point of view of South Korea, the obvious question must be asked. If Japan already has a self defence force, which is very much capable, and if a war with China is unlikely due to world economics, then why does Japan feel the need to rearm. The most logical answer would be for Japan to exert itself more over issues such as the Liancourt Rocks. Also in the present climate of Japan revising it’s textbooks, Shinzo Abe’s comments that comfort women were prostitutes, and visiting the Yasukuni Shrines, I believe South Korea has more than enough ground to react the way it did. Also, not saying that you are but if you live in Japan, then wouldn’t you be naturally more predisposed to Japan? Also I’m sorry the fact that there was a racist riot in the first place kind of dampened the whole ‘peacefulness and civilisation of the Japanese society’ thing.

Far East

Dear Sam,

안녕하세요!

Clearly a full fledged war would have negative effect on the Chinese economy. There is no doubt about that and I agree with you. However, a localized one like the Falklands War in 19882 assuming there is 1) good communication on the international scene by China and 2) little to no support by the US, then waging a local war would be to the benefit of China, even if it means losing momentarily at least a lot of FDI inflows.

Any action at a State level is driven by an effort-merit ratio. So, what’s the gain?

China is the world’s largest energy consumer and is running out of oil because its aging onshore fields (Daqing, Henan, Jilin, and Shengli) ( http://goo.gl/4sL2sP ) cannot keep pace with its growing consumption needs.

By the end of this decade, the country will need to import more than 60% of its crude compared with about 50% now and one third of its natural gas, according to estimates from China Petroleum & Chemical Industry Federation.

“China has to look for offshore fields to deliver the energy supply it needs as onshore fields are exhausted,” said Lin BoQiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University in Fujian province ( http://goo.gl/LD1qCN ).

The sea east of China may hold as much as 160 billion barrels of oil and the South China Sea 213 billion, according to Chinese studies cited by the U.S. Energy Information Agency ( http://goo.gl/ZrqWGc ). Combined, the reserves would be bigger than Saudi Arabia’s 265 billion barrels and enough to supply China’s needs for a century based on 2011 consumption data provided by British Petroleum Plc. Gaining control over the largely untapped areas in the South China and East China Seas would help China secure more reliable energy source for its economy rather than relying on imports from the Middle East.

Hooman Peimani, principal fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Energy Institute explained that “China is concerned about the long term. Many of its suppliers are Arab countries and in North Africa, which are facing serious problems.”

Furthermore, Chinese economy is slowing down more than the official figures want to admit, and its debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to exceed the 250% and it certainly does not have the brands and the quality of workforce that Japan or South Korea have.

Throughout the ages, countries have used scapegoats to divert their population from domestic economic or political issues. Here China is no different, and Japan has all the quality to play the perfect scapegoat, especially as the typical Japanese politician is psychorigid.

You wrote “the same argument can be used as to why South Korea feels a threat to their sovereignty and thus does not want Japan to rearm which was the status quo.”

I respectfully disagree. But first off, I want to state my position that Dokdo / Takeshima dispute should stop and Japan should back off. Now, why it is not the same? Do you see Japan bullying South Korea over this? Do yo see them making military threats? No.

Japan is maintaining its stance purely out of domestic politics issues in my opinion, and because there is not one Japanese politician courageous enough to say Japan should drop the ball on this one. Just like President Park does not have the courage to admin South Korea did sign an agreement in 1965 that covers the comfort women issue and that her father pocketed the money without telling the Koreans. If she or another Korean politician were to recognize the issue to be closed, it would be a political suicide. So, I guess, we just need to wait for this generation of politicians to pass. Maybe 10 15 more years I guess.

“Also more importantly, it is not like Japan is defenceless. It had a self defence force. Therefore from the point of view of South Korea, the obvious question must be asked. If Japan already has a self defence force, which is very much capable, and if a war with China is unlikely due to world economics, then why does Japan feel the need to rearm.”

I agree with you Japan has a pretty strong army, and has no need to further strengthen its army, but you should note that the military budget in Japan has grown very little over the last 10 to 15 years while China’s military budget has increased over 10% year on year for the last 20 years or so (I may be mistaken on the exact duration, but that’s about it).

That being said, the real reason is for Japan to buy weaponry from the US and feed the American military industry, a huge market.

This is also very true of South Korea and US. South Korea is spending a huge amount of money and thousands of US soldiers on its territory. Is it really needed, even with North Korea threat? I am not so sure.

Revision of textbooks:

Let’s avoid this rhetoric, because all country tell the history their own way and it changes whether this is a socialist or a liberal government in power. I mean, I do not think the history is taught with great fidelity in China and that is an euphemism, but the same can also be said in South Korea, or even in European countries to a lesser degree.

“I believe South Korea has more than enough ground to react the way it did.”

No, I do not agree. President Park is playing a dangerous game, and the future of those country is to be friend, but in the mid-term, she is playing the China card in the hope it will bring South Korea more benefit than with Japan, who is a strong competitor in the world anyway.

“Also, not saying that you are but if you live in Japan, then wouldn’t you be naturally more predisposed to Japan?”

Yes, I live in Japan, and I love Japan, and love South Korea, and like the Chinese culture (not the communist government however).

“Also I’m sorry the fact that there was a racist riot in the first place kind of dampened the whole ‘peacefulness and civilisation of the Japanese society’ thing.”

This demonstration (not a riot) was by a small number of people. It was maybe a few hundreds, and this is the appanage of a democracy where everyone is free to express his/her opinion. The natural and spontaneous reaction of Japanese people re-enforced the high esteem I have of the Japanese people. Did you know Japan was the country in the world with the lowest criminality rate?

taopai

Well, seeing how not overlooking North Korean’s rearmament has worked for SK, Japan shouldn’t be too worried.
South Korea is a medium power strangled between superpowers. It hasn’t any influence on these countries, neither now, nor in the past, nor in the future.

PandaWatch

Sounds like a bunch of conspiracy theorists thinking Japan wants to re-take ROK

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