Spent over 30 years in computer systems work, many different functions. Owned my own business for awhile. Got tired of it (managing employees is not my baliwick) and stopped doing it professionally. Did other things, off and on, for some more years and finally bumped into this investing/trading... More

Axion Power International (AXPW) 2/13/2012 And Forward One Year Experimental Charts Snapshots 3 comments

This instablog is to hold a "snapshot" of my experimental charts, the first after a bit more than a year of collecting data, aiding in looking for patterns in the charts that might give a small lead-time signal before a change of some kind occurs in share price trend. I'll add additional snapshots at various times.

This is a continuation of a series of related instablogs. The related ones, latest to oldest, can be found here. The latest is updated (usually) daily and as it gets too big a new one will get started.

The first charts in this instablog are, essentially, my original stuff with some vertical lines added to help visually correlate times, prices, volumes, inflection points, ... so that patterns of significance might be more readily identified.

As various experimental changes in the calculations occur that seem potentially useful, I'll also add snapshots of those.

I've numbered the lines so that we can reference them easily when discussing any time-frames. Since I don't know the sizes of screens folks use at different times and places, I put the numbers at various places so that regardless of viewport location and size you can see a number and need to count only a couple lines to know the number of the line of interest. This should minimize the inconvenience of otherwise needed excessive scrolling.

This is only an aid to any discussion we might have about making this useful to folks that might want to help analyze and identify patterns of interest.

As usual for me, I've probably added more lines than needed. Suggestions for ones to be (re)moved are welcomed. I can remove lines in the public version and keep all the lines for the detail I want without much effort. So please let me know, if you have an interest in looking at this stuff to help develop its usefulness, if there any changes that I might easily implement to help this effort, including adding, removing, relocating and/or otherwise modifying the lines and/or numbers. Since I use Gimp (*great* software and even greater because it's free), there's a lot that can be done.

The only holdup is learning to use Gimp effectively without constant reference to the help panel.

Over time, I would like to add useful discussions that might occur to this header, with attribution. For now I'll get the ball rolling with a simple observation.

Note a striking, to me, change in the patterns starting in early November when we thought for sure the "big uglies" were mostly out and my call for a rising trading channel was made.

The daily shorts began moving to, and staying at, an average lower level, which John has detailed in comments and a new chart in the header of the APCs.

I also am struck by the way the buy:sell inflection point period values started to converge from the widely dispersed pattern prior to that time and have, thus far, remained much less widely dispersed since. Even as the "grind up" has stalled, at least temporarily, they remain tightly grouped (2/22/2013).

It'll be interesting to see if this changes as various trends in price develop in the future.

I've added a second chart using one version of my newer, as opposed to the original version in the first chart, experimental inflection points calculations bracketing the price chart. As of 2/28/2013 I've not adjusted the lines placements yet, so they may not be helping to highlight potential areas of interest yet. I'll get that done this weekend and add a note here and in the comments.

I welcome any comments and/or suggestions that may help increase the utility of what I'm pursuing.

(right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

(right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

Additional disclosure: I'm relatively new to both investing and technical analysis and am still constantly trying to learn. I am experimental in nature and also take conventional wisdom and sometimes (conveniently) ignore it or bend it to my own uses. Caveat Emptor!

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha
community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors,
in contrast to contributors' articles.

On the calcs, the charts sort of incorporate that because there are no one-day calculations. The shortest is five days, so the calculations incorporate buy:sell and volume, in combo, as an array calculation.

The newer version ditto, but with some other factors added in.

What this adds up to is that the tail, the middle and the head of each period (5, 10, ...), are really showing an aggregate trend already, somewhat like an average might do. One thing I've been thinking about, when I decide if I should keep my original or replace it with the newer version, is to give an exponential weighting. But I do want to be careful with that because it might return the "flakiness" of the original, which I'm trying to avoid in the newer version.

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.