How the Hong Kong protests will impact Taiwan

Thousands of rain-soaked pro-democracy demonstrators in Hong Kong remain defiant this morning, calling on the city's chief executive to meet them or face wider actions. Protesters are now into the second week of a campaign to occupy sections of the city over Beijing's decision to nominate all the candidates for the territory's 2017 election. The World Today is joined by the immediate past US ambassador to China, Gary Locke.

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ASHLEY HALL: The United States' immediate past ambassador to China says the protests in Hong Kong may have implications for Beijing's relations with Taiwan.

The former secretary of commerce and governor of Washington State, Gary Locke, left the Beijing Embassy in February.

He's been telling our North America correspondent Michael Vincent the protests are tough for China's leaders.

GARY LOCKE: Well, it's a very tense and precarious situation and almost no win for either side.

It's obvious that the Chinese leaders will not capitulate to the protesters' demands because it really sets a precedent for more protests even on the mainland, and it would send a message that through protest you can get the Chinese leaders to change their policies, especially political reform.

At the same time, the pro-democracy movement, the people are adamant that China has to live up to their promises of universal suffrage.

MICHAEL VINCENT: What do you think Beijing's tactics will be now?

GARY LOCKE: Well, first of all, Beijing certainly doesn't want a repeat of Tiananmen Square and so they're going to try and keep their fingerprints off of anything that happens in Hong Kong, and the response will have to be by the local police while the Chinese have a garrison of several thousand troops there.

The last thing they want is to have mainland military personnel involved in any type of intervention.

At the same time, they clearly want to avoid a repeat of Tiananmen Square but they cannot let the protesters prevail.

MICHAEL VINCENT: Do you expect other nations like the United States to play a role in this?

GARY LOCKE: Well, the United States' only role are affirmation of universal human rights, of freedom of expression, free press, freedom of religion and ability of people to have a say in their future.

And how elections, the actual mechanics and details of how elections are carried out in Hong Kong for the chief executive is really to be resolved by its people - the people of Hong Kong and the mainland.

But when Hong Kong was turned over or handed over to China in 1997 it was, there were promises made that there would eventually be universal suffrage, that the people of Hong Kong could elect the chief executive, Beijing.

Right now the chief executive is elected by an election committee of about 1,200 people, largely influenced by Beijing.

The Chinese government has said that, yes, well you can actually have the people elect the chief executive now instead of the election committee, but the candidates have to be approved and essentially chosen by the election committee and that's what has raised the hackles of the pro-democracy people within Hong Kong.

MICHAEL VINCENT: Given the stalemate that exists, how long politically do you think this can go on for?

GARY LOCKE: Well, it really depends on the protesters and how they carry out the demonstrations.

As long as it remains peaceful, if commerce is not unduly restricted, I suppose it could go on for several more days.

This is a very tough situation for both sides and especially for the Chinese leaders who so far have resisted any type of political liberalisation and have really cracked down on public protests on the mainland.

That's why there's so much censorship of any news and social media, commenting and reporting on what's happening in Hong Kong for fear that this could lead to protests and encouragement of protests on the mainland, and the Chinese leaders are most opposed to that.

This has implications beyond just Hong Kong and China, mainland China, but also relations between the mainland and Taiwan.

Many people have long talked about one country, three systems - mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

How this plays out and the reaction and the response by Beijing to what's happening in Hong Kong could affect the future unification efforts between the mainland and Taiwan.

ASHLEY HALL: Former American ambassador to China, Gary Locke, speaking to Michael Vincent.