Analysis: Which ‘sleeper’ teams could be competing with Miami Dolphins for Peyton Manning?

Yesterday, the sports talk conversation was dominated by one topic – which team is the front-runner to sign Peyton Manning?

The off-shore gambling sites and many media outlets – including this one – consider the Dolphins and Cardinals as the favorite to sign Manning, with the Seahawks, Redskins, Jets and possibly Browns also in the hunt.

This morning, though, comes word from ESPN that a total of 12 teams contacted Manning’s agents after he was released around 4 p.m. Wednesday. Yes, the Dolphins were one of them (obviously). And other than the teams listed above, ESPN lists Denver and Kansas City as two other teams that contacted Manning.

But that leaves five mystery teams who contacted Manning’s agents yesterday. While the Dolphins and Cardinals remain the favorites – even the New York Post writes this morning that “on many levels, Miami makes the most sense for Manning,” – Dolphins fans still must be wary of the “mystery team” swooping in at the last minute.

(Of course, it’s important to remember that it’s in the best interest of Manning’s agents to create the impression of a bidding war for Manning so as to drive up the price. And just because a team calls Manning’s agent does not mean it is a serious bidder for his services.)

So who, exactly, are the mystery teams? Well, we can discount the Patriots, Packers, Giants, Saints, Panthers, Steelers, Chargers, Eagles, Lions, Falcons and Rams – those teams have their franchise quarterbacks in place. The 49ers stated unequivocally at the NFL Scouting Combine that their goal is to bring back Alex Smith and not find a new quarterback. The Ravens are deep into contract extension talk with Joe Flacco. The Broncos may be investigating Manning, but John Elway will be run out of town by an angry mob if he gives up on Tim Tebow this offseason.

The Bills just made a big investment in Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chicago seems happy with Jay Cutler and Houston Chronicle reporter John McClain said Manning-to-the-Texans is “not happening.” They have built their program around Matt Schaub for the past five years, and it would be a terrible message to send to the locker room to dump him in favor of Manning after Schaub led the Texans to a 7-3 record and their first playoff berth in franchise history before he got hurt.

So after narrowing down the options, which teams could be the “sleeper” waiting to pounce on Manning? Here’s how we rank the options:

1. Kansas City Chiefs

It’s hard to call them a “sleeper” team because Romeo Crennel stated flat-out at the Combine that the Chiefs would be foolish not to look into Manning. On the surface, it’s hard to see Manning, who played his entire career in a dome and has had four neck surgeries in the last 19 months, choosing Kansas City and its cold, dreary weather. But the Chiefs are desperate for a quarterback after Matt Cassel has failed to prove himself over the past three seasons. They have a decent defense, ranked 12th in points allowed and led by fearsome pass rusher Tamba Hali. They have playmakers on offense in Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles. And they play in the AFC, which if Marshall Faulk is to be believed, is a major factor for Manning. If Manning wants to stay in the Midwest and doesn’t mind the cold, the Chiefs could be a decent option.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs haven’t really popped up on anyone’s radar, but they look like a good sleeper candidate. Yes, Josh Freeman is under contract for two more years. But after throwing 25 touchdowns and only six interceptions in 2010, he took a major step backward last year, with 16 touchdowns, 22 interceptions, a measly 74.6 passer rating and, most importantly, a 10-game losing streak to end the season that cost coach Raheem Morris his job. The Bucs have plenty of salary cap space to sign Manning and his buddies Reggie Wayne and Jeff Saturday, with over $60 million available to spend this offseason, second-most in the NFL. Factor in the warm Tampa weather, and that the Bucs could add an immediate playmaker with the No. 5 draft pick, and the Bucs look like a team that bears watching.

3. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings seem to be in rebuilding mode, but have a few things going for them in the Manning hunt. They play in a dome, have a couple playmakers in Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson (though he may miss most of next year with a torn ACL) and might draft elite left tackle prospect Matt Kalil with the No. 3 pick in April’s draft. Most importantly, their only quarterback options are a pair of young, unproven players – Christian Ponder, last year’s No. 12 overall pick, and backup Joe Webb. And the Vikings certainly have a history of signing the big-name veteran quarterback, doing it just three years ago with Brett Favre. The Vikings have a lot of holes to fill on both sides of the ball, and probably won’t be a Super Bowl contender next year, but present a decent case to go get Manning.

4. Tennessee Titans

Coach Mike Munchaksaid pretty clearly at the Combine that the quarterback job will be a competition between Jake Locker and Matt Hasselbeck, but it’s still possible that the Titans decide to dump Hasselbeck and instead bring Manning into serve as Locker’s mentor for a year or two. While this doesn’t seem likely, the Titans do have a few things going for them – they play in the AFC, have impact playmakers in Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt, went 9-7 last year and play just a couple hours from Manning’s alma mater, the University of Tennessee. Seems like a longshot because the team has immediate plans for Locker, but the Titans make more sense for Manning than most teams.

5. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys make this list only because Jerry Jones is crazy enough to pull off a move like dumping/trading Tony Romo and signing Manning. Romo is signed through 2013, has an attractive base salary for this year ($825,000) and the Cowboys could save the $11.5 million it owes him for 2013 by getting rid of him this year. The Cowboys have good playmakers for Manning – Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Jason Witten and DeMarco Murray – and play in a pseudo-dome. Of course, it’s hard to see Manning wanting to play in the same division as his brother, Eli Manning, but Dallas always has to be considered when superstar players become available.