Overview of Avian Influenza

Avian Influenza is a specific type of influenza (flu) that
infects birds. Avian Influenza is caused by many different
influenza viruses, specifically the H5 and H7 subtypes. H5N1,
which has received a lot of media attention, is by far the
most virulent and a significant threat to human health and
safety.

Quick facts about Avian Influenza

H5N1 is spread by migrating waterfowl

Originally discovered in Hong Kong, China in 1997, H5N1
has now spread as far west as the United Kingdom

H5N1 has caused over 100 human cases, about half fatal

Human-to-human transmission of H5N1 has not occurred

Authorities have no methods of predicting the spread of Avian Influenza

Predicting the Spread of Avian Influenza

To predict the spread of Avian Influenza, there are few
possible methods. Very little statistical data is available,
making methods such as mathematical analysis difficult to
perform. Other methods, such as computer-based modeling and
simulation have the capability to predict the spread of Avian Influenza.

SEARUMS was developed exactly for this purpose. SEARUMS,
which is an acronym for Studying Epidemiology of Avian
influenza Rapidly Using Modeling and Simulation, is a
full-fledged simulation environment. SEARUMS was used to model
the interactions of migrating waterfowl, stationary waterfowl,
and poultry, to observe the routes by which avian influenza
infection spreads. A detailed
description of SEARUMS is also available.