In sum, I think Cole gives Matt Schaub not enough credit, credits Kyle Shanahan and the offensive line a bit too much, fails to mention Ben Tate and doesn’t really look at the wide receivers as a group. Just Andre Johnson alone should give the wide receiver group a bigger ranking. Yes, Owen Daniels is coming off of injury, but there wasn’t a large measurable drop off of passing numbers when he was gone. I’m not devaluing his role, or the difficulty of making the offense work without him, but they were able to give his passing yards to other players.

But ultimately, this is just some guy who comes up with his list of team rankings. It means nothing. Ranking the Texans offensive line 6th may have set some fans off, and people might quibble about his brief paragraph writeups of things, but none of this means anything really. It’s one guy’s opinion.

My thoughts now are that I have few concerns with the offense. The key players have been playing together for a while They know the system. The new offensive coordinator knows the system likely better than the old offensive coordinator…and he has special expertise with the running game. The running back group doesn’t have a ton of experience but running back is one of the few positions where young guys can make a quick impact.

Are they going to have issues against sturdy defenses? Likely, but most teams do.

• • •

Though clearly the team and fans have had concerns with the offensive line, particularly with the middle of the line, ultimately compared to some other teams, we don’t have it so bad.

The Texans run an offense where there is always a place for the ball to go if the quarterback reads the defense appropriately and his teammates do the right things. The offensive line doesn’t give up a large number of sacks, especially given how many pass attempts Schaub had plus how downfield he tends to go with the ball.

There are very few fanbases who are satisfied with their offensive line play.

There’s the weak-link teams who have concerns mostly with one or two players on the line. There’s the quarterback-is-the-problem teams where it is hard to evaluate the line play because the quarterback doesn’t know what he is doing. There’s just the bad-offensive-scheme teams where no matter who the players were, it wouldn’t matter because the offensive system and coaching is so bad. There’s the built-from-the-trenches teams who are now are faced with how to pay their offensive linemen huge salaries without allocating too much money to the offensive line at the expense of the rest of the team.

There’s not a fanbase in the league who is totally happy with their team, or totally happy with their offensive line.

I can’t say that I’m completely comfortable with the line going into next year. I think, however, it’s worth mentioning progress. In that long brutal 2005 where I am very thankful there weren’t 18 games of misery, it would be nearly impossible to think that the Texans offensive line would be ranked 6th by anyone or that the Texans would be ranked 1st in passing in the league.

Parts 1-5 of The Anosognosic’s Dilemma: Something’s Wrong but You’ll Never Know What It Is + all the blog posts of Errol Morris. (New York Times Blog-A continuation of what we talked about in the previous post).

24 Responses

I like to think another good reason for ranking lists for a fan is so that they know where their favorite team actually stands statistically against other teams, no to complain about their favorite teams’ position if it happens to be alot lower than the other teams. That’s just an “it sucks” vantage point for complaining, not the goal to have something to complain about. It just sucked to be low ranking, like the Texans were in “the Casserly years”, so I feel the pain for those who complain about rankings.

Anyway, not sure why that mattered to me, but what I’m saying is that I’m relieved and actually feeling close to being in agreement with the ranking of 6th for the offensive line. Sixth seems a little high, maybe 10th or 12th is more accurate?

When your ace running back and tight end go down, which make up the majority catalists for your offense, you have to start playing with a different angle and effectiveness. Hence, while most teams rely on an effective running game, the Texans were forced to rely on recievers. It wasn’t until the final 2 games before the running game came into the picture as an efficient means of offense. That being said, the Texans offensive line should improve to the top 5 with good durable running backs. I sincerely feel it was a problem of decision making and concentration for several of the running backs that had problems. Contantly and consistantly. Focus and determination, which is usually the strongest in a young running back making a squad rather than an 8 year vet trying to get his last contract, will be the key to success along with the defense maintaining it’s “get’m-get’m-get’m” attitude from last year.

The questions is: Does the 2010 Houston Texans running back group have 2 studs to carry them into the playoffs this year? Defense is in the teens in ranking, the offense is in the top in ranking, and not to complain, but I’m glad the offensive line is ranked 6th by one accredited mans’ opinion, because it’s going to take a high ranking line to do what they need to do in 2010. Don’t you agree?

[I'm okay with the running back group. They are young, but young guys can excel, and these guys don't have to unlearn stuff from the Mike Sherman way of doing things. I think the key to next season is just more consistency. Or maybe just basic competence on certain things--running game, field goal kicking, 3rd down defense, giving up big plays. -Steph]

QB – Ok, I am very critical of Schaub, but 12th? Please. I would put him definitely in the top 10.

WR – We have depth. A lot more than most teams at this position. We lost Johnson before and still performed. We lost Daniels last year and still performed. Too many teams lose a key player and fall apart. Not the Texans. This is one area we have shined at. We should be 2nd or 3rd at the worst.

RB – Can’t argue here. LOL

OL – W/O a decent RB, the OL looks poor. They did protect Schaub pretty good, but I have a hard time sticking them in the top 10, especially middle of the pack.

[I think the Oline ranking is a reflection of the Texans offensive line relative to some other teams. There's lots of complaining about offensive lines these days. That being said, I believe the Jets line is better--any issues they have is all about the albatross they are running out at quarterback. -Steph]

hi steph, your doing a great job. In next years draft I really hope that we draft an interior offensive lineman in the 1st or 2nd round. Such as possibly replacing the human ragdoll Chris Myers at Center, with either Mike Pouncey out of Florida or Kris O’Dowd from USC. I really don’t like the way the texans’ brass thinks when it comes to improving the o-line. Do you think it could be a strong possibility we could improve the o-line next offseason? Thanks for your time.

John

[Thanks. I think they are uncomfortable going offensive line in the first round for anyone other than left tackle. 1. Because they have had needs elsewhere; 2. They don't want to throw their salary off by drafting an interior Olinemen too high; 3. They feel like they can make do at that position relative to some other positions. I think they will continue to throw bodies at the defense until they get much better. In addition, it is hard on a team to incorporate a rookie offensive line center--it's done, but that's a position where you want a full grown smart guy at it. -Steph]

Quick question – and sort of off topic: Why doesn’t Antonio Smith get any love from the media or fans? I’ve watched and rewatched every Texans games from last year, and he simply leaps off the screen at me. He seems terribly underappreciated, and I don’t think Rick Smith gets enough credit for making a big move for him.

Thoughts?

[Thanks--if it is talking Texans, it isn't off topic. Heck, just about everything in the off-season is off topic. I think that the reason why Antonio Smith fails to get credit from some is due to his relatively slow start and the slow start of the defense in general. They were Literally The Worst defensive team in the league after the first three games. I'm guessing that a lot of people haven't heard the Texans coaches praising Smith's performance as the season progressed or things like what KC Joyner wrote about Smith's performance here: http://blogs.chron.com/texanschick/2010/05/on_the_texans_and_runstuffing.html -Steph]

what i dont understand is how they rank teams that we beat hands down, and they get a better ranking than us?…..

as for the OL, did he ever think where we finished the year before that? i could be wrong [i'm not good with stats] but didnt we finish in the top 5 overall in yards last year. some would call me crazy, but we are somewhat designed like the Colts. we have an Elite QB [who has yet to play his best football],

then you add a healthy lighter Steve Slaton, Arian Foster, And Ben Tate this Offense is slowly becoming a Beast. how do you lead the league in passing and have so many players go to the pro bowl, and nobody gives you any credit to have a shot at winning the championship?….. “Haterade”

I don’t think you will find many fan bases that are happy with their offensive line. Mainly because most people don’t notice the linemen unless they do something bad. We tend to focus on the ball. The lack of glory in playing offensive line also tends to drive the better athletes away from the position. Players want to be recognized, and offensive linemen generally aren’t. Some of that is turning around because the left tackle position pays so well, but generally kids want to make sacks and tackles more than they want to stop them. You don’t get your name in the paper for blocking well.

Texans fans are no different. We remember Kris Jenkins and the Jets tearing through the offensive line like paper in the first game. We don’t think about all the time Schaub had to throw in the other games, or we credit the scheme and good play action fakes. Those things help, but the offensive line is a part of selling the fakes, and still had to hold blocks for a long time on several of those plays while we were watching Schaub and Johnson.

Here’s some numbers that back up what Steph said. Schaub was sacked 25 times last year – 18th in the league. He also had the most passing attempts in the league last year. His sacks as a percentage of attempts was 6th best (4.29%) – behind Matt Ryan (4.21%), Drew Brees (3.89%), Vince Young (3.47%), Tom Brady (2.83%) and Peyton Manning (1.75%!). That’s pretty good company. So the Texans had one of the top pass protecting teams in the league. The NFL is still a pass oriented league, so pass blocking gets you ranked higher than run blocking.

Good and interesting writing by Eric. I was surprised that he actually picked playoff teams, because no matter how diplomatic one is about these things – this could end up on someone’s locker room bulletin board during the season who did not make the list.

[Yup--I tweeted that out this morning. It's nice to see a Texan get a high-profile read like that, and for him to do such a good job. I'm guessing the Jets defense, most of the Colts offense won't like that in particular. -Steph]

BAck to Antonio. It wasn’t just run-stuffing, I saw the dude make tons of plays in the passing game also: splitting double teams, hitting the passer, forcing fumbles, elbows to Mawae. I don’t hear Gary Kubiak praise him the way he does Cushing, even though Antonio’s playing positions of great difficulty (I’m not going to knock the 4-3 outside LB which is also incredibly difficult).

[He did praise Smith, especially relating to his play down the stretch. But Cushing's performance was particularly comment-worthy because it is hard to be named to the Pro Bowl your rookie year, much less All Pro. I also think he is being particularly praising of him after the suspension because he knows that some fans will be very tough on him. -Steph]

I’m not worried about the offensive line like some fans. Rag-doll-ing and all that. Who cares if your offense can get it done like they did last year? I am not too worried about the defense – rookie CB and no Cushing for 4 games cause concern – but we had rookie CB’s last year, and we were a better defense than the Saints on most measures – points allowed, yards allowed, yards per play, etc. Saints had 12 more takeaways which comes in handy for Drew Breeze. Oh yeah, they won the Super Bowl with that average defense.

Kubiak has said there are lots of ways to win a football game. How do the Saints have a defense a little worse than the Texans and still win the Super Bowl? Well they averaged almost 32 points per game. The Texans averaged 24 and change. Add 7+ to each game and the Texans are 14-2 last year.

We all remember the two missed field goal 3-pt losses to IND and TEN, and the two goal line situations – a stuff (ARI) and a fumble (JAX), then the 5 point loss to JAX (have they turned the tables on us?). That leaves the NYJ game and the home IND game. This is where having your offense play even better can get you over the hump.

Forget about the NYJ game, they owned us that day (ragdoll game). But the home IND game is perplexing, because if our two best offensive players had played a little better on two plays, we could have won that game. Andre Johnson dropped a touchdown pass and we kicked a field goal instead. Matt Schaub threw a pick six, looking the same as he did in the ARI game. (Don’t throw it over there anymore, Matt). That is an 11 point swing on an 8 point loss. Texans win 31-28. OK we are up to 15-1.

People have said UCLA’s John Wooden’s secret is that he got all over his good players to be near perfect much more than his he did to his average players. Point is, if our best offensive players can be even better, by raising our offensive output by 7+ points a game to 32, the Texans will win a bunch of games.

As far as NYJ, some people are showing them all kinds of love for the 2010 season – Super Bowl bound etc. (If you want to crown their …) But they were basically a .500 ball club and the last two teams laid down for them. OK, they had a superior defense, and they won a couple of playoff games. But this is an offensively centered game, where passing and an elite QB provides a greater chance of winning – not a great defense and an average offense. Texans are built right for today’s game.

OK, now back to watching Casey Hampton pick up Chris Myers and throw him into Slaton to make the tackle in the 2008 opener…

When it comes to the offensive line I remind myself that the group will be back, intact, and the running in the last 2 games by Arian Foster.

As far as the wide receivers go, as a group, I wouldn’t trade our set for anybody’s. We have accomplished vets in Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels, and a bunch of huge potential in all the rest. As a group each player fits in to his role well and they all find a way to get the job done.

At this point in his career I wouldn’t trade Matt Schaub for anyone else either. Even Peyton Manning would have to learn the offense, though he would be the only one I would consider.

So if you’re a football writer there’s nothing to do but sit around and rank stuff for a month and at some point you get back to thinking about football.

Those rankings are so last year.

When the defense looks better than the offense with no pads on, it makes you wonder.

Great post as usual Steph. Off-season is for rankings. As you say, they start conversations between fans and draw viewership for web sites. Can’t complain there. My thoughts on the lists:

Quarterbacks

Immediately drop Palmer, McNabb (due to age and a new team), and “The Other Manning” below Schaub, make #4-9 a virtual tie, and leave Brees, Brady, and “The Manning” at the top in whatever order you choose. That’s a better QB list.

Wide Receivers

Move the Texans ahead of GB and AZ and that’s a better list. I’d drop SD below the Texans, too. Three is too high for them.

Offensive Line

I don’t know enough about offensive linemen to have an opinion on their ranking of 6, though it seems suspicious considering how bad their running game was last year. In their favor, the Texans have averaged a #9 statistical ranking in sacks allowed over Matt’s tenure (#5 last year).

Running Backs

I have no arguments on the #20 running back ranking. I actually think that’s generous considering how bad they were last year and how many question marks they have going into this year, including a roster full of mostly unproven players with potential. Cole probably gives them a 20 based solely on his OLine ranking and the derth of quality running games at the bottom of the league.

I can’t believe that some people in katy are already asking Eic Berger if they should evacuate from tropical storm Alex…..Evidently they are scared of their own shadow….

I have been through Carla, Ike and all in between and never run……I stayed prepared and I live right on Galveston Bay……

I am not crazy, I just stay prepared and am not ready to turn over my property to looters and deadbeats…It is just a way of life down here…..

LENNIE

[Lennie, you take care. Yeah, I think there's a ton of hysteria about things--like people in Katy wanting to evacuate, but I take storms seriously. Between tropical storm Alison and Hurricane Ike, I am done done done with storms. -Steph]

I gotta agree with your assessment on this guy’s ranking methodology, Steph. But the fact is the Texans will never be on anyone’s radar sufficiently to expect an accurate analysis, until they become a force to be reckoned with in the NFL.Otherwise, we who follow them – and that goes double for journalists and para-journalists such as yourself – are going to have to provide our own assessments.I think yours is far more realistic, personally.

what i dont understand is how they rank teams that we beat hands down, and they get a better ranking than us?….. –Posted by: Hardknocks at June 28, 2010 10:37 AMBecause that was then, this is now. NFL teams regularly change their character – dramatically – from one season to the next. This isn’t about ranking last year’s Texans against last year’s opponents, it’s about THIS year’s teams with THIS year’s composition of players. I guess if you were to ask this guy he’d say “the teams they beat last year have gotten better relative to the Texans.”And he could very well be full of it, but that’s where he’s undoubtedly coming from.

what got him ushered out of Pittsburgh, choking, will happen again here.

It started with the “Reggie Bush Bowl” where he shanked a 20 yarder or whatever it was. After that, other than the win against the Colts, he hasn’t come thru in the clutch.

I think KB has been a model Texan, but every time I think of the potential of the 10′ Texans, it’s like I hear the Jaws theme and see KB in my head.

I think we under play the KB situation in 09′ in the spirit of “If if’s and buts were cherry and nuts”, but he makes “1″ of those kicks to get us tied what would the Texans 09′ story have looked like with Playoffs? Its that big.

I always stick with if Tony Zendajas doesn’t break his leg the Oilers would have a SB win.

Ian Howfield anyone?

So you’re heading for the hills next time we get a big storm?

MT

[Competition is deadheat. Last year was a down year for a lot of field goal kickers, not just Brown. Rackers himself was one of the best in the NFL before he lost it. From year to year, the stats show very little consistency from field goal kickers. Brown had some decent years after his difficult time in Pittsburgh. As for your last question, if a serious storm comes this way, I shelter at a close by place that makes me feel more secure--my house has a pretty open floor plan with a lot of windows and trees. Ain't a place where I'd like to ride out anything serious, though it did okay during Ike--our side of the street didn't even lose power. (Which meant party was at our house--everybody brought leftovers over here, and we had 1-4 families living with us for 2 1/2 weeks. My house isn't big enough for that but we managed.). -Steph]

I think that given that he is attempting to produce separate rankings for each position group, Cole does an extremely poor (and inconsistent) job of separating group performance from team production. The most glaring case in point is the Jets offensive line, which I would say is pretty clearly the best in the league (thanks to Clady’s injury and McDaniels’ ongoing attempts to dismantle a dominant young unit for no apparent reason at all). He yammers about the effect of quarterback play on sack rates, and then appears to make no attempt whatsoever to correct for it in his OL rankings.

As for the Texans rankings, FO’s metrics had them at #15 (4.10) in ALY and #8 (5.2%) in ASR. That ASR ranking is probably fairly realistic – Schaub does a good (not great) job of avoiding the sack, but the deep passes and ineffective running game made life more difficult. The ALY figure, on the other hand, is almost certainly dragged down by the awfulness of Slaton (and to a lesser extent Brown) and the mediocrity of Moats. Slaton’s DVOA was -30.8% (on 131 carries). Moats’ was 1.5% (on 101). Foster posted 24.8% on 54. And lest we forget, Moats is not very good – and while Foster looks like a useful player, he is pretty clearly not elite (or ever going to be). On the other hand, the power (21st, 60%) and stuffed (26th, 22%) were disappointing, and I don’t think all the blame for that can go to the backs. Overall, I’d say that 6th is maybe a touch high, but certainly not in the wrong ballpark. Back half of the top ten seems reasonable.

I do not believe Cole knows how good Jones and Anderson are, or fully appreciates how well the receivers complement each other as a group. Counting tight ends, the Chargers are probably better placed. If Moss is still able and willing to be Randy Moss and Welker is healthy (both big ifs) the Patriots might be too. The Packers . . . perhaps, but I’m not convinced. No-one else. I really can’t buy a position lower than 4th for that group.

The running backs are completely unrankable. To try is utterly futile. I very much doubt that Kubiak or Dennison have a terribly clear idea of how well Tate, Slaton or Foster – the presumptive top three – will play next season. No-one outside the Texans organisation can have any sensible idea at all. I’d be very surprised if any of them was elite, and I’d be surprised (though not staggered) if they were all terrible. I’m optimistic that between them the Texans will be able to field at least a tolerable running game, but by no means certain.

I too think Schaub is better than Schefter thinks he is. Assuming you want to run a vaguely normal offense with actual NFL-calibre talent at the other positions, I believe he is more valuable than Roethlisberger, for example (the Steelers do not appear to have this desire, so for them Roethlisberger is more valuable, though anyone – eg. Cole – who thinks he’s better than Rivers is off their head). He is also better than McNabb, who has now declined to the point where he is only a marginally better than average NFL starter, and the perennially over-rated Eli Manning. He is also better than Palmer has played since his injury, though that is no guarantee that Palmer (clearly the more talented player) won’t be better in 2010. He is at present a very similar player in both skill-set and performance level to Rodgers, though Rodgers is significantly younger and can be expected to demonstrate more improvement going forward, perhaps as soon as this season. Somewhere around #7 would be more realistic, I think.

i think he was to hard on our rb’s and not hard enough on our oline…if your ranking for just pass blocking then yea… but run blocking imo not only tougher but more important, especially in our offense that relies on play action and boots a lot. he doesnt even mention our 2nd round pick and he disses Slayton like he was a 1 hit wonder. i dont agree with that and think although fumbling is a huge problem for RB’s, its fixable and when Slayton had space last year he looked really good. i can see Slayton being big in the passing game this year and possibly comeback player of the year. btween slayton, foster and tate we will be very good at RB next season, cant say the same thing for the o line or dline.

and lol @ Schuab being behind Romo, Mcnabb and Carson Palmer…

a lot of these nat’l media types are really out of touch with specific teams thus making it hard to even come close to a good ranking list.