We’ve made much ado about the regal yet glitzy debut of Las Vegas’ CityCenter and its posh hotel Aria in recent weeks. Especially as MGM Mirage CEO Jim Murren promises that his dream team of architects will pair modern art with over-the-top opulence to spur the city’s next renaissance. But will it actually happen?

This chart from the Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority looks prescient (if somewhat artless). It shows in real numbers how Sin City’s shift away from gaudy (think: Luxor, Treasure Island, MGM Grand) to extravagant (ahem: Palazzo, Wynn, Encore) has left an ever-increasing room supply with little demand. Murren seems to like his odds, but to pay off in this economic climate, he may actually still need to borrow a trick or two from Penn & Teller.