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Heavy precipitation will drench portions of the east coast over the next 72 hours. Dark green represents 2″ rain while orange reflects 3″. Map: Weatherboy.com

Those looking to step out and enjoy Cinco de Mayo festivities will need their umbrellas in much of the eastern US; a rowboat may even be more appropriate for some. A complex, slow-moving low pressure system will bring heavy downpours and drenching thunderstorms over a large area.

There will be scattered snow shower activity in the northeast this weekend. While snowflakes may be seen in places like northern New Jersey, accumulations will be restricted to the higher terrain of Pennsylvania, New York, and nearby places. Even so, accumulations will be light; gray represents a trace while shades of light blue represent 1-3″.

And while the calendar says May, some areas will see snow too this weekend. While snowflakes will fly as far south as northern New Jersey, central Maryland, and western Virginia, some of those flakes may accumulate over the higher terrain of Upstate New York , northern Pennsylvania, and the highest elevations of western Maryland and eastern West Virginia.

Those looking forward to warmer, drier conditions will need to wait in the eastern United States. An unusually potent and positioned upper level low will keep conditions colder and more wet than usual over much of the Northeast, Great Lakes region, and Mid Atlantic. There could be additional threats of frost and freeze conditions, which will delay some for getting a jump start on their spring plantings. The unsettled, cooler-than-normal conditions could linger for at least the next 5-10 days.

A potent storm system will impact the northeast. The storm may hug the coast or may head more off-shore; each possibility brings major changes to possible snowfall amounts. It is still too soon to say how this storm will evolve as it moves towards the northeast on Tuesday.

A major winter storm will pound the northeastern United States on Tuesday, dropping very heavy snow and whipping the coastline with damaging winds and rough surf. While Sunday and Monday will be tranquil in the northeast, it will be very cold with highs forecast to be about 15-25 degrees below normal. Meanwhile, the ingredients will be coming together for a significant storm to form off the North Carolina coast by Monday afternoon.

This storm will rapidly intensify and go through a process called bombogenesis. Bombogenesis is defined as a mid-latitude cyclone that drops in surface barometric pressure by 24 or more millibars in a 24-hour period. With an abundant moisture supply, great support from upper layers of the atmosphere, and a set-up that’s ripe for rapid development, a major Nor’easter will blossom and move up the northeast coastline late Monday evening into Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, the low pressure center should be near eastern Maine, bringing trouble to the Canadian Maritimes while the US begins the big dig-out.

Meteorologists making forecasts are aided by computer forecast models that digest large volumes of data and spit out robust data sets profiling different layers of the atmosphere; two of the most popular global models are the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF.) They each have their strengths and weaknesses, although this winter the European model has generally performed better than its American counterpart with big storms.

While we’re less than 4 days away from the storm, there’s still decent disagreement between these models and their opinions they render. The American model appears to be a western outlier, bringing a track of the primary low pressure system very close, if not a hair inland, over the coast. The European model shows a track further out to sea. A track closer to the shore line would produce much more precipitation, but it would also increase the odds of a a more northern rain/snow line that would cut snow amounts down due to non-snow such as sleet and rain falling. A track more offshore would keep cold air in place, bringing up snow totals along the coast. Tracks far off shore could also keep most of the available moisture to work with off-shore as well. At this time, the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center believes a blend of those solutions will occur.

At this time, Weatherboy believes it is too early to commit to a forecast path. Beyond the complexity of the future track is the future structure of this system. Because this overall system is really the sum of many parts and it is not yet completely understood how Mother Nature will assemble those parts, there is no early, crystal-clear solution as there have been with past major storms such as the March Superstorm of 1993 and the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010. In those storms, the pattern and available track for those storms to pursue was understood and “locked-in” several days before the storms impacted the northeast. Unfortunately, the same just isn’t true yet for this system.

There are two probable paths for the storm to pursue: hug the coast or head off-shore. In our snow maps here, we’ve illustrated how those very different paths would lay down very different snow amounts across the northeast. The coastal hugger would bring the threat of rain, sleet, or a mix of rain/sleet/snow up into New Jersey, keeping snow totals low along and south of I-95 in the Garden State south into Delaware and Maryland. But a coastal hugger would also slug more moisture inland, bringing 1-2′ snow to portions of Pennsylvania and New England. The off-shore track would pull the impacts of the storm further east, bringing the heaviest snow to portions of central New Jersey and southeastern New England. If the storm were to head even further off-shore, that heavy snow would go with it. While a well off-shore solution would eliminate change-over or mixing chances with rain or sleet, it would also cut snowfall amounts dramatically as you move away from the coast.

More data needs to be analyzed before confidence is increased in the forecast specifics, especially as it relates to snow. That confidence may not rise until Sunday afternoon. In the meantime, the National Hurricane Center has confirmed that Reconnaissance Aircraft typically used to investigate hurricanes have been deployed to this developing system to sample the atmosphere. These samples and assorted readings throughout their journey in the atmosphere will provide us with a greater level of detail of the set-up that’ll eventually impact the track and intensity of this storm.

Regardless of the storm track, the northeast will be hit by typical harsh Nor’Easter conditions: damaging wind gusts, coastal flooding, and beach erosion are all possible from the Delaware Beaches up the Jersey Shore to the South Shore of Long Island to Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, Cape Cod, and Block Island. While confidence is low with snow accumulation specifics, confidence is moderately high that there will be severe winds at the coast. The prime period for damaging winds would be from early Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon along the northeast. The best chance of coastal flooding will be during times of high tide on Tuesday.

By Wednesday, the low should quickly pull away. While the storm heads into the Canadian Maritimes, there could be lingering snow showers throughout the day, especially over northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, and the higher terrain of New England. High pressure will build in during the day on Wednesday with another storm threat arriving later Thursday.

A series of storms is expected to bring heavy snow to a large part of the eastern United States over the next several days; the area shaded in pink show where a total of 6″ or more of snow is forecast to accumulate over the next 6 days.

A series of winter storms will impact the eastern US with heavy snow over the next several days. From Friday, March 10, through to Wednesday, March 15, more than 6″ of snow is expected to fall at this time across much of eastern New England, the New York City Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, DC metro areas, all of New Jersey and Delaware, much of Maryland, much of Pennsylvania, eastern West Virginia, western Virginia and portions of eastern Virginia, the higher terrain of eastern Kentucky and Tennessee and western North Carolina, and portions of east central North Carolina.

Storms will impact these areas later tonight into tomorrow, again on Sunday, and again next Tuesday/Wednesday.

The first of the storms moving through the region tonight into tomorrow is a clipper-like system. This storm will drop generally light snow across east central Ohio into northern Pennsylvania, central and northern New Jersey, the New York City metro area, and southern New England. While a broad area of 1-3″ of snow is likely here, there will be some 3-6″ areas in the higher terrain of Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, southern Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Because of the likelihood of accumulating snowfall, the National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storm Watches, and Winter Storm Warnings for this area. Once the snow comes to a conclusion later on Friday from west to east, much colder air will filter into the northeast.

The second storm system will dive deeper than the first, bringing a round of snow to potions of Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia on Sunday. While flurries from this system may fly as far north as Washington, DC, most snow associated with this second system will remain well south of the big cities of the northeast. Travel will become hazardous, especially over portions of North Carolina, on Sunday as significant snow falls there.

The second storm and the general atmospheric set-up across the country is expected to set the stage for a very significant winter storm on Tuesday. This storm could bring the heaviest snowfall of the winter season to the heavily populated I-95 corridor from Washington, DC to Boston, MA; the heaviest snow from that system could fall between Philadelphia and Providence, with New Jersey and the New York City the potential “ground zero” for this third winter storm. That storm alone may produce 6″+ snow for many of those areas then.

Zone in purple could see accumulating snow on Thursday even after unusual warmth on Wednesday.

Odds are increasing for a Thursday snow threat for portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Six inches or more of snow may accumulate as ingredients come together for a snowstorm; however, big questions remain about those ingredients and where exactly they’ll come together.

An area of low pressure will track through the Great Lakes region, bringing rain and mild air far up the northeast US coast during the day on Tuesday. Rain will make it as far north as Quebec, Canada. Some freezing rain and snow is also possible across portions of New England, creating slick conditions there later Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to be very mild if not outright warm over portions of the southern Mid Atlantic as a strong southerly flow sets-up ahead of this low pressure system.

As this low pressure system departs the United States to eastern Canada, significantly colder air will flow down into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast from central Canada. This key ingredient -cold air- will help set the stage for a winter storm on Thursday even after unusual warmth on Wednesday.

A new area of low pressure will form at the surface near the Appalachian Mountains and move east, bringing precipitation to the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast. As this precipitation moves into the cold air, snow will form.

Many storms in recent weeks have quickly departed the eastern US, not getting much time to intensify or put down much in the way of precipitation. However, unlike those previous storms, a bit of an atmospheric “traffic jam” is setting-up over the Atlantic Ocean which will help slow down this Thursday winter storm threat. While there is no complete blocking pattern, the pattern will help slow things down just enough to make the weather interesting.

While interesting, the unfolding weather scenario is very complex with many details yet to be ironed out. While a storm is likely, where it goes, how much cold air it’ll tap into, and how long it will linger remain open questions.

Our map above depicts an area that -could- see snow from Thursday’s storm. Storm track and the rain/snow line will play a major role in who see’s heavy snow or any snow. At this time, it appears the best chance of accumulating snow is over central New Jersey and the New York City metropolitan area. South of there, the rain/snow line may creep north just far enough to keep snow away or snow totals low. Further north and west of the New York City area, if this storm hugs the coast or heads further east than east north east, little to no snow may fall there with most precipitation confined to the coast. The exact storm track will also determine whether southeastern New England sees snow from this storm; the more east-north-east the storm moves rather than north-east, the more likely snow will remain closer to the New York City metro area and not expand north towards Boston. If the system does jog north and east more than expected, significant snow would slide into much of southeastern New England.

More atmospheric readings are needed over the next 24 hours to help forecasters determine who will get precipitation and what form that precipitation will fall in. Until the forecast is refined, those in the purple zone should prepare for the possibility of wintry conditions on Thursday.

Football wasn’t too impacted by the weather last week, but the forecast looks to be changing for this coming weekend.

The forecast shows weather will impact some football games in the coming days as we inch our way closer to the Superbowl. This weekend’s games in the NFL are called the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Just like last week, there will be 4 games played, 2 each on Saturday and Sunday. The 3rd seeded Seattle Seahawks will visit #2 Atlanta late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening will see the 4th seeded Houston Texans heading up to New England to play the top seeded Patriots. On Sunday, early in the afternoon the 3rd seeded Pittsburgh Steelers will head to Kansas City to face the 2nd seeded Chiefs and the last game of the weekend will occur late in the afternoon as the 4th seeded Green Bay Packers travel to Dallas to battle the top seeded Cowboys.

Before we take a look at the weather pattern across the country and the details weather-wise for each game, last weekend’s wildcard playoff games was rather tame in terms of weather impacts. In Green Bay, temperatures were around 10 above zero but with little wind, the weather did not play a huge role in this game played Sunday evening. Seattle saw light winds and a light rain began well after the end of the game Saturday night so besides chilly temperatures in the mid 30s the weather had little impacts in this game too.

Houston hosted the Oakland Raiders Saturday afternoon with the retractable roof closed so the weather was obviously not a factor there. This past Sunday afternoon was very cold in Pittsburgh when the Steelers defeated the Miami Dolphins with temperatures in the low teens. There was a consistent 10 mph wind with gusts to 20 mph causing the wind chill to be near 0. An extra point was missed and the wind may have played a role in that. The bitter cold may have factored in on the Dolphins’ miserable performance in this game, especially considering how they are more used to playing in the balmy temperatures of southern Florida.

The general weather pattern this weekend will see a major ice storm occurring across the central and southern Plains. This icy weather will stretch eastward just north of the Ohio River and south of the Great Lakes and into interior portions of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic by Sunday. North of this disturbance will be a pair of arctic high pressure systems, one centered over the Intermountain West and the other over the Great Lakes.

Right off the bat, the first game played Saturday afternoon at 4:35 PM (all time Eastern) will be in Atlanta between the Seahawks and the Falcons and will take place in a dome. So obviously no weather concerns for the game itself. For tailgaters pregame, the weather will be dry and temperatures will be mild, with temperature near 70.

The second game on Saturday will start at 8:15 PM and will take place in Foxborough, Massachusetts; a bustling community that is found almost exactly halfway between Boston and Providence, Rhode Island. The Patriots have been the home team for some truly awful weather playoff games in January (see below) and luckily this game will not join that list. Though chilly, any wintry weather in New England will wait until Sunday to occur. For this game, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 20s, no chance of snow or ice and light winds. As said about the game in Green Bay last week, the weather conditions could be a whole lot worse this time of year.

The 1st game Sunday afternoon will kickoff at 1:05 PM in Kansas City as the Chiefs play host to the Pittsburgh Steelers. This game is at risk of the icy weather mentioned above. Temperatures will be right near freezing and winds will be out of the northeast at 8-16 mph.

The finale for the Divisional playoffs will be held at 4:40 PM in Dallas as the Dallas Cowboys welcome the Green Bay Packers to town. The Cowboys state of the art stadium features a retractable roof so we know that the game will not be impacted by any weather even if there was adverse conditions. Outside, rain looks likely with temperatures in the 60s with a gusty southwest wind as north-central Texas is on the warm side of the same weather system that will be affecting the Chiefs and Steelers game.

Getting back to how lucky the Patriots and Texans will be when it comes to the weather Saturday night, here are some examples of truly awful weather in Foxborough:

Dec. 12, 1982: Miami at New England:

With the temperature around 20 degrees, heavy snow, and wind gusts up to 30 miles per hour, this game had all the bad weather one could stand. This game between the two AFC East division opponents was more of a struggle than a football game. The snow was so heavy that the yeard markers were impossible to see and neither team was able to score points until 4:45 remaining in the game, when Patriots kicker John Smith somehow managed a 33 yard field goal to win the game, 3-0.

This game became referred to “The Snowplow Game” because a snowplow was used to actually clear a clean strip of grass on the field for the winning field goal. Miami coach Don Shula was livid the home team Patriots ordered a member of their ground crew to do this.

January 19, 2002 AFC Divisional playoffs, Oakland at New England:

The weather featured temperatures around 25 degrees, with gusty winds blowing around a heavy snow. Over 6 inches of snow fell during the game.

This game is often referred to as the “Tuck Rule Game” or the “Snow Job”. The New England Patriots celebrated a 16-13 overtime win over the Oakland Raiders. The snowy field allowed Patriots tight end Jermaine Wiggins to mark the win by making snow angels in the end zone.

The game was given the name “Tuck Rule Game” and the “Snow Job” after the Raiders appeared to win the game when cornerback Charles Woodson hit quarterback Tom Brady from behind and knocked the ball out of his hands with Oakland clinging to a 13-10 lead with only 1:43 to play in the game. However, officials ruled that Brady “tucked” the ball in towards his body as he was hit, which can’t result in a fumble. Former Raiders players and fans of the team still complain about this call to this day.