BP Annual Player Comments

Year

Comment

2016

The trades of Chase Utley, Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins left Howard and Carlos Ruiz as the lone remnants of the 2008 champs, and the big flyswatter's continued presence only felt more out of place as the season aged and younger players began filling the vacancies. Howard posted career-worst numbers against left-handed pitching, and Pete Mackanin finally seems as though he'll be the guy to implement a platoon of Howard and Darin Ruf on a regular basis. It's entirely possible that Howard can rebuild some lost value and put up prettier numbers if lefties are removed from his field of view; the Phillies certainly hope he can, as their efforts to trade him to the American League will no doubt continue. Even if he doesn't, 2016 will be his last season in Philadelphia, as his pernicious and perpetually panned contract finally peters out. It's an ignominious end for a former MVP, but it's still entirely possible for him to eclipse 400 home runs before all is totally said and done, even if he'd do it in something other than red pinstripes.

2015

Fantasy players might try to convince you that Howard wasn't that bad in 2014, but once you look beyond his homers and RBIs, it all falls apart. Wait: His 29 percent strikeout rate was also a three-year best, but now it all falls apart.

He posted a sub-.400 SLG for the first time, with a career-worst .156 ISO. The "why?" behind this decline is the tricky part. There is nothing to suggest that he deserved such a miserable fate. His batted ball profile held steady, he stayed healthy, and he even hit lefties quite well for the first time in five years. It's hard to paint a rosy outlook going forward, but with respect to his 2014, Howard suffered through some bad luckâ€”though his first injury-free season since 2011 was a bit of good.

Note that he is still, delightfully, a very good hitter with runners on base, with a .260/.359/.449 line in the roughly half of his plate appearances when the defense can't shift, or shift as much. His OPS is more than 100 points better in nearly 3,000 such plate appearances in his career, so even if the RBI totals are misleading, the stories you've heard are only partial lies.

2014

We told you so.

2013

Once a three-true-outcomes guy himself, Howard has seen his walk rate fade considerably since 2007, when it peaked at 16.5 percent. Most of that is because his intentional walks have dropped precipitously from the mid-30s to no higher than 17 since 2008. Howard had better make some adjustments if he wants to have any chance of living up to the rest of his massive contract. Even his 2010-11 performance wouldn’t be worth anywhere near the $20 million he'll make this year, let alone the $25 million he is slated to collect annually, 2014-16. At least Phillies fans are reasonable and measured in their response to players.

2012

Not even Aeschylus could have written it more poetically. But Howard’s tragic end occurred not offstage but on national television. His left Achilles tendon was shot through not with an arrow but on a grounder to second, and now he is likely to miss several months of the 2012 season. This season also marks the beginning of the five-year, $125 million contract Howard signed in 2010. It is unrealistic to expect him to perform significantly better than his established sub-Olympic heights: average defense, a True Average in the range of .290 to .300, and explosive power. Howard’s most outsized weakness is against the shift: Evidence from Acta Sports suggests he loses 100 points of batting average against it. Since he hasn’t figured out how to adjust yet, there isn’t much reason to think he’ll learn to hit the other way before his contract ends after the 2016 season. Howard’s lefty-righty splits were again extreme in 2011, so pinch-hitting for him late in games—when LOOGYs will prowl—is a better idea now than ever. That’s a solution that Howard’s pride, not to mention his contract, is likely to preclude.

2011

Most of the discussion about Howard this year focused on his contract extension, which will pay him $125 million from 2012 through 2016. It’s a shame that his future paychecks overshadowed his performance on the field. Outside of August, a month in which he tried to play through an ankle injury, Howard hit .288/.366/.529. He hit better against lefties (.264/.333/.492) than he has over the course of his career (.232/.314/.452), and struck out at his lowest rate yet. On the other hand, he saw fewer pitches than he had in recent years, and his power was down markedly. Will he be worth $25 million six seasons from now? Unlikely, but 2016 is a long way off, and Howard has shown an ability to make adjustments as pitchers have adjusted to him.

2010

Howard's one of the game's most dangerous hitters against right-handers, with career rates of .307/.409/.661 and a home run once every 10.4 at-bats, but has huge problems seeing same-side hitters, dropping to .226/.310/.444 with a home run every 17.6 at-bats. He takes a lot of criticism for the latter figures among analysts, but it should be noted that this is still above-average power, equivalent to 37 home runs over a 650 at-bat season. He was a bit worse than this in 2009, hitting .207/.298/.356 with a homer every 37 at-bats against southpaws, but until he shows that he can't rebound to his career levels, talk of platooning him against anyone but the toughest left-handers is premature. Sort of like the slugger he replaced, Jim Thome, Howard’s tendency is to hit more home runs to left field than to right, while pulling nearly everything that stays in the yard. Teams could cut down on his average by shifting three infielders to the first-base side, but they'd be limited when there are runners on. He may have one of the weakest throwing arms in the game, but his weight loss in the 2008-09 offseason produced a more mobile fielder. Howard’s path from here on out will depend on his ability to stay in shape, and last year’s focus on conditioning bodes well for a longer career, instead of a Mo Vaughn-style quick peak and flame-out.

2009

When does it become all right to point out that despite having three straight top-five MVP finishes, Howard has been sprinting backwards for two seasons? His .313 batting average in ’06 was a mirage driven by one of the best performances on contact (.455 BA) in history. In ’08, his walk rate dropped off considerably, leading to a .339 OBP that simply isn’t good enough for a no-defense first baseman in a hitters’ park. Last season is the floor for this type of player; either Howard regains some ability to make contact, some batting average or some walks, or he’s headed for oblivion, no matter how many RBI he collects. Note to NL managers: he’s a .231/.314/.471 career hitter against lefties, and getting worse by the year.

2008

Howard's PECOTA comparables suggest the system doesn't expect him to have a long battery life, a reflection of his late start and old-player skills. Still, Howard is a better hitter than any of those guys and is going to be fun while he lasts given his prodigious home runs and strikeouts. Only May's quadriceps injury kept the big man from topping 50 home runs again, though he still managed to break Adam Dunn's single-season strikeout record. For sheer entertainment value, Howard is a modern analogue to Babe Ruth.

2007

Ryan Howard is a big, really big, reason why the Phillies need to go for broke in the short term. Historically, players like Howard, big-bodied guys with limited defensive skills such as Mo Vaughn and Boog Powell, tended to have high but brief peak periods. Their legs just couldn`t carry that much mass for very long, and around 30 their defense plummeted, their playing time dropped due to nagging injuries, and their singles dried up and disappeared. The Phillies should have a three-year window in which they can expect this kind of production from Howard, but should not plan beyond that. He`ll be fun to watch in the meantime.

2006

After a year of pummeling minor league pitching like the reigning heavyweight champion would pummel a Golden Gloves winner, Howard got his chance on July 1 when Jim Thome broke down. When recalled, Howard was leading the International League in BA, OBP, and SLG while awaiting resolution of the impasse at first base in Philly--which wasn`t exactly a Gordian knot. With Thome having hit 89 homers and walked 215 times the previous two years, and with the club committed to him through 2085 at a quadrillion bucks per annum, the patently obvious solution was to deal Howard in the 2004-05 offseason for catching or pitching help--or both. However, sometimes good fortune is the residue of incompetence. The soothsayers disagree on where Howard`s career is heading: while he has outstanding power, his bat speed isn`t the greatest and he might end up merely as a very good mistake hitter.

2005

You can read the stat lines as well as we can—Howard has big league power and then some. The problem is that he has nowhere to play: While Howard worked with Milt Thompson on his corner outfield skills in Arizona, he's going to wind up at first base, and Jim Thome isn't about to go anywhere. He could stand a half a season at Scranton to improve his pitch selection – his walk rate is not that high for someone who gets pitched around so much – but he's close to as good as he's going to get, and if he languishes in the International League for two more years, it isn't going to do wonders for his trade value. We usually criticize organizations for moving good prospects prematurely, but if the Phillies find themselves in a pennant race and get an attractive offer for Howard, it would behoove them to bite.

Howard's PECOTA comparables list is interesting. The list is headlined by some unflattering names, Sam Horn, Daryle Ward and Franklin Stubbs to name a few. But just a bit further down are encouraging comparisons like Carlos Delgado and Derrek Lee, players who improved their walk rates and became very dangerous hitters. It's a potent mixture of about one shot boom and two shots bust.

2004

Howard fell 7 RBI short of winning the Triple Crown in the FSL last year and was named the league's MVP. That's the good news. The bad news is that, at 23, he was a year older than the league average and also led the league in strikeouts. Taken together, you've got someone who should hit like a lesser Preston Wilson, except that he's a slow first baseman and isn't getting an altitude boost to his numbers.

BP Chats

Not as good as I'd like, which is a shame, because the arm's great and the hands are plenty good, but holy God is he slow. You can be slow and play third base, but Franco's at least testing the limits of how slow you can be. (Michael Baumann)

Is Ryan Howard even worth a roster spot at this point? Shouldn't the obviously rebuilding Phillies be using that position to take a flyer on someone they can trade later, like Pedro Alvarez?(Philly Phanatic from Philly)

Well ... no. If they platoon Howard, I can see him being worth a roster spot. But it's not like removing Howard from the roster would scratch the money they're spending on him. Okay, if a team is willing to eat a portion of his contract, sure, deal him and try something else. Just stop playing him against lefties! And for the record, Pedro Alvarez should not be allowed to play the field any more, so Philly is not a good fit. (Bryan Grosnick)

I'd probably keep all of them. Baez is a no-brainer, and somehow, some way Howard was a $13 player last year in NL-onlies. Okay roster depth, even in a shallower league. I've always liked Lamb, just needs regular reps & I'd take the flier he gets 'em for a buck. (Wilson Karaman)

True or false questions:
Polanco will be an all-star someday? (Pirates)
Ryan Howard will be a DH by this time next year?
Dan Vogelbagh will be traded by next spring?
Montero will have a better career than one of Matz, Syndergaard, Harvey, or Wheeler?(Davin from Da burgh)

Hey Matt, thanks for chatting. I just saw some odds that had the Red Sox (10/1), Mariners (12/1), and White Sox/Tigers (16/1) as favorites to win the AL. Do you buy it?(tripleb from Boston)

Hi! My wife called just as I made the chat go live. Life!

Yeah, sure, I'll buy that. There is so much parity now, that I'd probably buy just about anything. I mean, I can see the Red Sox winning 93 games or 73 games on either extreme. The Mariners can't hit and the Tigers are old, but each are probably still very good teams, right? I guess we'll know soon enough.

And Ryan Howard breaks up Clay Buchholz's no-hitter in the fourth inning. Can you even have a no-hitter in the fourth inning? I think you have to get through six innings before we can start barking about a no-hitter in progress to people not actively watching the game. I propose this as a new rule! Let's run this through the process, submit the paperwork and see what happens! (Matthew Kory)

The thing I love about Howard is that he truly genuinely does crush pitchers when runners are on base/in scoring position, just like the narrative goes. It's not BS -- he really does it! It's marvelous. This year, for instance, he has an OPS of something like .550 when the bases are empty, and something like .820 when runners are on base. Now, .820 isn't elite or anything, but it's pretty darned good, way above average. He does this every year. And so we get the clutch narrative, but really it's the shift narrative. When defenses can't shift him, he's good. When they can, he sucks. There might be slightly more to it than this, but that's mostly it, and it makes the distinction between clutch and indefendable in certain situations irrelevant. I wrote about this once, with pictures so you can see what I'm talking about: http://bit.ly/1oZ3FqQ (Sam Miller)

Jeff, I'm batting well over .300 and popping HR whenever I feel like it. Why would you think the Rook Oscar will be better than the might Matt? He hasn't impressed so far.(Matt Adams from St. Louis)

Are we talking right now or long-term? Adams is clearly the better hitter right now, but it's not like Oscar Taveras doesn't have a track record of being the best hitter in the minor leagues or anything. Since when did Cardinals fans decide to turn on top prospects so quickly? I thought you were supposed to be the best fans in baseball? This is a very Cubs thing to do.

I like Matt Adams for what he is. He's a very good hitter, but he offers no defensive or base running value. He's also a big-bodied hitter, and we know those don't age well. The history is not kind for big hitters as they enter their 30's. Look at Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, etc. The list goes on and on. He's got plenty of time before that, but if we're looking at the long-term picture, it's not close between the 22-year-old outfielder with a 7 hit tool and a strong minor league track record and the slow-footed first baseman who is probably enjoying his career year and has maybe 3 years of his prime left in front of him.

Also, has anyone noticed that Matt Adams has 9 walks this season? 9!?! That's less than Adam Jones! If he isn't hitting .330 he's making a TON of outs. Regression is going to be rough in St. Louis. (Jeff Moore)

So, following up on the previous question, your solution would start with removing Ruben Amaro from control and bringing in a new GM.
Let this new GM reshape the organization and find whatever he can for the aging players with bloated contracts on the Phillies roster. Throw a parade if the GM can find someone to take Ryan Howard's contract off our hands.
Who is out there that could do that on short notice?(Steve from Philly)

I'd say nobody reflexively and move on to the next question except someone took Vernon Wells in trade twice so I wouldn't say it's impossible. As for who though... man, now you're taxing me. The Yankees maybe? They could use him as DH and back up 1B while Teixeira is recovering from his latest recovery. I can't imagine an NL team taking him now. He has negative defensive value and can't hit left handers so he is totally neutralized later in the game. I think the team probably has to live with Howard for a few more years, but maybe it's possible to move him. Hope springs eternal! (Matthew Kory)

I enjoyed seeing Anthony Rizzo make a mockery of The Shift last week by easily bunting down the third-base line for hits, not once but twice. As I recall, Matheny stopped using The Shift after that; it seemed Rizzo took the option off the table. If Ted Williams had done the same 75 years ago, would The Shift have ended there? Why don't teams insist their batters bunt against it, like say Ryan Howard? (gerrybraun from San Diego)

Teams are weird and don't like insisting on anything with their established players.

I don't think the shift would have ended there because there have been times when letting a slugger try to bunt is a more optimal result for the defensive team than letting him hit. (Late 90s and early 2000s come to mind.) In this offensive era, it becomes a much, much better strategy. (Zachary Levine)

Is Vogelbach strictly a trade chip for the Cubs? Also, ETA on Almora?(Jack from Chicago)

I'm afraid to answer any Vogelbach questions without angering my colleague Bret Sayre. These situations tend to work themselves out; remember how people used to wring their hands about Ryan Howard in Philadelphia when Jim Thome was locked in? I suppose the Cubs could move him, but it would take a lot.

Do you think Maikel Franco will be an impact bat and be able to stick at the hot corner?(Chopper from Indy)

No and not for all that long. Think he can be a solid fantasy bat, but I don't see impact potential. The Phillies will likely keep him at third as long as possibly because they have Ryan Howard signed until 2341, but I don't think it will be pretty. (Bret Sayre)

Do you think it at all possible that sabermetrics at its most accurate could be good for prescribing the best ways to win baseball games while being harmful to an organization's business aspirations? For instance, sabermetrics might tell us to bench Ryan Howard, but that might be a poor business decision, at least initially.
(Aaron from Berkeley)

Sabermetrics doesn't purposefully try to ignore the business stuff, it's just a bit limited in what it knows and can conclude. But making the most money is part of running a business and running a business is part of winning, so it still falls into sabermetrics' purview, I would think. Go find that article Ben wrote about the Indians after the SABR conference, as an example. (Sam Miller)

Unless this is a keeper league, then I would give an emphatic "no." I dig Fernandez, but his innings-count will be limited this season, and he is likely to go through some growing pains. I am still waiting for the intimidating Ryan Howard to show up, as right now he is scarier in the Subway commercials than at the plate. Giancarlo and Craig are heavy bats that can carry an offense - gimme the two over the three. (Doug Thorburn)

Thoughts on Morosi's prediction for PHI to finish ahead of ATL?(BOO-URN from parts unknown)

It seems silly, though last year at this time if you told me the Phillies were going to be a .500 team I would have thought you were huffing chemicals. Realistically, the Phillies would need a lot to go right for this to happen. If Roy Halladay returns to Cy Young form, then maybe the Phillies are an 87 win team. At that point, some combination of a breakout by Dom Brown or Darin Ruf, a full, healthy, and productive season by Ryan Howard or Chase Utley and something resembling a 2-3 win season from Delmon Young or Michael Young could make it happen. But it seems to be asking a lot for all of things to happen in 2013. (Mike Gianella)

My saber oriented Philly friend is howling at Rueben Amaro's off-season moves:Mike Young, Delmon Young, John Lannan, Chad Durbin, and the artist formely known as Yuniesky. In your humble opinion, are the Phillies actually moving forward, slamming on the accelator while in reverse, or simply stuck in neutral?(Paul from DC)

They're not moving forward, far from it. They're not slamming on the accelerator either. I think they're trying to push it out of a ditch, if I had to pick any one automotive analogy. This is what happens when you extend Ryan Howard so far before free agency and only notice the skills you want to notice. Of the moves mentioned, the Lannan move bothers me the least. Or the Yuni NRI just because it's an NRI. (Zachary Levine)

Ryan Howard and Josh Hamilton signed near identical contracts for their age 32-36 seasons. Howard's is 125M for 2012-2016 and Hamilton's is 125M for 2013-2017. Is it even close, or is Howard's contract astronomically worse? Could it be the worst contract in baseball?(Charles from Austin)

Howard's contract is way worse. Hamilton may already be in decline, but Howard hasn't had a season as valuable as Hamilton's 2012 since 2009--the season after which the Phillies gave him his future extension, which they didn't have to do. Could be the worst contract in baseball. (Ben Lindbergh)

How much (fantasy wise) is Ryan Howard worth at this point)? Meaning does he have good long-term value? What about 2013 value?(Donald from Henrytown, PA)

I'm not a fan of Howard's long-term value. I do think he has some upside this year. Could be a good buy-low option with some upside. I'm willing to give him a partial pass for his bad year last season given the lengthy layoff. (Josh Shepardson)

This is what I'm talking about. Maybe Singleton can hit .280, like when his BABIP spikes and he's 28, but looking at his profile it's hard to see him hitting more than about .250 or.260, year to year. Jim Thome and Ryan Howard both hit over .300 in the minors. Don't you think Singleton would have to make some sort of change before we can forecast him for anything like .280 with 25 homers? (flyingdutchman from Oakland, CA)

Part of projecting a prospect to the major league level is the attempt at projecting what steps/adjustments they are capable of making as they develop. I think Singleton has the feel for hitting and the overall approach to ultimately hit .280 consistently at the big league level. If he hits at that level, the power will absolutely play in the 25-home range. (Mark Anderson)

How much stock do you put in the "aging curve" research that is out there? If you put any stock in it, you cant be excited about PHI's medium term outlook.(Matt from Chicago)

I think there's two kinds of people: ones who saw this coming (although maybe not quite this soon), and people who didn't. Howard still hasn't had a plate appearance under his new deal. They still have the front-line pitching, but that isn't getting any younger, and some team that doesn't have gobs of money owed to what's left of Ryan Howard may well be able to lure away Cole Hamels. They may try and retrench to try and keep the window open a bit longer, but they look like a team in need of a rebuild. (Colin Wyers)

How do you think the NL East will play out this year? Phillies are still considered top in the division, but do you the Miam or Atlanta will come in at 2? And are the Nationals as good as they think they are?(Tom from State College)

Particularly because of the impact of losing both Chase Utley and Ryan Howard for considerable lengths of time - both absences are open-ended at this writing - I think the NL East is really up for grabs. It's not difficult to envision scenarios by which Braves, Marlins, and/or Nationals could challenge them. Personally, I think it's the Nats who will rise up out of the fray - I really like what they've done with their rotation, which is much deeper than that of the Marlins, who are up the creek if Josh Johnson isn't right. I'm not a huge fan of the Braves' offense, so I think they could underperform relative to the expectations of a team which just missed the playoffs last year.

How do you think the NL East will play out this year? Phillies are still considered top in the division, but do you the Miam or Atlanta will come in at 2? And are the Nationals as good as they think they are?(Tom from State College)

Particularly because of the impact of losing both Chase Utley and Ryan Howard for considerable lengths of time - both absences are open-ended at this writing - I think the NL East is really up for grabs. It's not difficult to envision scenarios by which Braves, Marlins, and/or Nationals could challenge them. Personally, I think it's the Nats who will rise up out of the fray - I really like what they've done with their rotation, which is much deeper than that of the Marlins, who are up the creek if Josh Johnson isn't right. I'm not a huge fan of the Braves' offense, so I think they could underperform relative to the expectations of a team which just missed the playoffs last year.

What kind of playing time do you reasonably expect for John Mayberry this season?(Prospecting from Holding pattern)

A lot. He should be the primary first baseman while Ryan Howard is on the shelf, and once Howard comes back, I fully expect him to get a lot of the playing time in left field as long as something crazy doesn’t happen, like Domonic Brown coming up and demolishing or Juan Pierre blackmailing Charlie Manuel. (Derek Carty)

16-team roto league, unlimited keepers but must add $5 to last year's price to hold on to them. Lucky Jen here has Ryan Howard and would have to pay $36 to keep him. What to do? What to do?(Jen from Vancouver)

I think you have to throw him back at that price, unfortunately, unless your league tends to see a lot of inflation and the elite guys going for $50-60 and up on draft day. (Derek Carty)

I am in a pseudo-dynasty format where we keep players for as long as we would like but there are salaries attached (and thus theoretically forcing some turnover in the player pool). I have an offer right now on the table of Adrian Gonzalez for Nelson Cruz, Jemile Weeks and Jordan Walden. My team is stacked at every position but 1B (thanks to Ryan Howard's decline/health issues). This trade would leave a hole at my MI position, but I feel confident I can pick up a low-end guy to fill in for Cruz and Weeks. Is this a fair deal? Salaries of Gonzo and the trio I would be sending over are essentially a wash.(Travis from St Louis)

It sounds like you're looking to win it all this season, in which case it is perfectly reasonable to deal away a young, presumably cost effective guy like Weeks or Walden. It does sound like a steep price to pay, though (I'm assuming this is the usual 5x5 -- is it mixed or AL-only?), and it will definitely matter what kind of guys you think you can replace Cruz and Weeks with. I'd see if I could negotiate it down. (Derek Carty)

Love your Twitter feed. Makes me laugh at least once a day (unlike Goldstein, ZZZZZZZZZZ).
What kind of deal would you give Fielder assuming 1B was a need?
(Mark from Milwaukee)

Thanks! If I'm a team in the upper third of payroll, I wouldn't have much hesitation to give him Ryan Howard's 5 year, $125 million deal, but anything beyond that makes me a bit squeamish unless I'm an AL club that can look to an eventual path to DHing him, and if I'm below that tier payroll-wise, I'd start to get nervous, too. (Jay Jaffe)

What is the rule on releasing players with guaranteed contracts? In suffering through the Teddy Higuera years, I thought you only owed the full amount for the next season. I ask because with Ryan Howard's contract, are the Phillies better off releasing him and going after Prince/ Pujols?(Capt_Science from Philadelphia)

You confused me for a second, thinking Higuera was on the Phillies at some point.

As for the question, as far as I know the "guaranteed" part of the contract means just that - no matter what happens, Ryan Howard will receive $125 million for the Phillies. I think I remember some cases of players working out a deal with a team to change that guaranteed amount or restructure it, but that's not the same.

Almost every GM has a Grabow deal. The same GM that signed Cliff Lee last year and was hailed as a golden god also signed Ryan Howard to an 100M+ extension that hasn't even kicked in yet. If the Phillies don't win this year they will likely be in a worse spot than the Cubs in a few years...only they have a recent WS Flag.(Justin from Tinley Park)

But few have a Grabow, a Howry, a Hawkins, an Eyre, a Remlinger...should I go on? (Mike Ferrin)

Do the Phillies have the revenue stream to become perennial winners like the Red Sox and Yanks, or are they headed for a fall in 2-3 years as this core ages?(Mountainhawk from Salem, MA)

They have enough of a revenue stream to be perennial winners, sure. If St. Louis does, Philadelphis certainly does. To win every year you need enough cost-controlled players coming out of your farm system to fill a few positions--especially starting pitching, where costs on the open market are usually very high--and enough revenue to survive a few of the inevitable bad contracts you sign. The Phillies qualify. Ryan Howard may be overpaid, but his contract won't kill them. If the Brewers had signed him to that contract, it would have killed them, but the Phillies can afford it. (Ken Funck)

You support this move for the Sox? Why not let it ride and have a choice of Agonz, Fielder or Pujols after 2011 with no NYY in the mix. I don't know how much money sox save on Gonzalez with the rumored numbers being mentioned.(SK from DC)

Absolutely. First off, Fielder isn't that great. Terrible defensive first baseman, and really, do we know if he's a pretty good hitter or a great hitter yet? He never seems to be the same thing two years in a row, and he needs to be excellent all the time to make up for that glove. I don't think Pujols is leaving St. Louis--other teams would be in the mix solely to make sure the Cards pay up.

The Cubs love Adrian Gonzalez, and have the money to throw at him in 2012 if he was available. Eight teams inquired about him in a trade, so there is interest there. Anthony Rizzo has no future in the organization if the Sox are acquiring a first baseman anyways, so this is basically trading Casey Kelly and Reymond Fuentes for the rights to Gonzalez in 2011, as well as the right to negotiate with him during the season. I'm very optimistic he'll be signed well before the season is over.

If Boston gets Gonzalez for $22M a year, then this is a steal. Just assume $5M per win for a minute, Gonzalez is something like a $25-30M win player a year. Getting him for less money than Ryan Howard is silly, but I'll take it. (Marc Normandin)

Where did Ryan Howard's power go this year? It's not like he was turning those former long balls into hits considering he finished the year 3 points lower in average than in 2009. Do you believe he can get back to the 45 hr 140 rbi days of old or is that a pipe dream?(Michael Scoffield from Sona)

He did lose a few weeks to that crazy old injury bug, but even with those games back it is hard to imagine he would have hit more than 37 home runs this year, a far cry from his totals in years past. I can see him hitting 40 again next year, but he has very real holes in his swing and really needs to work on correcting them. You would think that a guy who sees a ton of junk-sliders would be able to determine they are junk-sliders, but his pitch recognition has eroded, and his bat speed is slowing. When Ryan Howard, who can't lay off of down and away sliders, suddenly cannot catch up to 90 mph fastballs, there is a major problem. And that's before even getting into a discussion of that contract. (Eric Seidman)

If Adam Dunn had played 1B for his entire career and played for, say the Phillies, would sportswriters have annointed him perrenial MVP and worth a mega contract versus lazy?(rdierkers from cincinnati)

I don't think so. Dunn is one of my favorite players and he seems to have a good personality on the field, but he's a pretty boring guy. Ryan Howard is very colorful and is great with the media. I think if Dunn had been the Phillies 1B throughout this run, he would be viewed differently, but the same would be true of bigger media markets. I also think if he played 1B his whole career as opposed to going to the outfield and playing some of the worst defense ever, he wouldn't be viewed as a defensive joke and his stock would be higher. (Eric Seidman)

Shouldn't a team that has sold out the entire season have at least tried to extend Jayson Werth for 2 years? This isn't Pat Burrell they're talking about letting go. Are the Phillies really going to let Werth go because they committed to Ibanez two years ago? That doesn't sound like a team that brought in Roy Oswalt.(e from lawrenceville)

Let's remember they brought in Roy Oswalt to cover up for the ridiculous Cliff Lee trade. Stealing a player from Houston isn't exactly something to be proud of, and when you have to resort to that because you screwed up first...

Jayson Werth hired Boras, so he's ready to get his Big Free Agent Deal. Two years isn't going to cut it. The Phillies should be making a play for him, but they decided to take care of Ryan Howard's extension first. Since it was so time sensitive, and all. (Marc Normandin)

What is the deal with Tex's first half/second half splits?!?!(Bronx Bomber from NYC)

This is one of those oddities. Same thing usually happens with Ryan Howard. I don't know how to explain it, but it just happens. Good players produce good numbers, and if you start out slow you're likely going to improve. Why it happens the same way each year is just weird. (Eric Seidman)

We've seen Ruben Amaro in action, and I'm coming around to the conclusion that he's just not good at being a GM. It's being papered over by a big payroll and the talent left behind by Gillick, but I just see him slowly driving that team down like Minaya and Hendry have done to their teams. What say you?(Clint from Chicago)

I concur, at least to a certain degree. The Ibanez deal looked great in year one, but now it looks bad, and the failure to keep Lee to team with Halladay looks bad. I'd be plenty concerned that the Ryan Howard deal is the start of a Zambrano/Soriano-like trend.

That said, this year's model has had to deal with an inordinate number of injuries; they've had Utley and Rollins together for something like a dozen game. It's tough to hang a GM for that. (Jay Jaffe)

Does Dom Brown's K-rate concern you at all? 63 Ks in roughly 325 PAs?(Ryan from Chicago)

Strikeouts only bother me when the way they pile up is counter productive. There's a huge difference between Ryan Howard striking out nearly 30 percent of the time (he's patient, waits for something to drive, doesn't always get it) and Brandon Wood doing it (Brandon Wood has no idea what he is doing at the plate). Why does Brown strike out? (Marc Normandin)

How do the holes in Stanton's swing compare to some other similar sluggers? Does he have the potential to hit with significantly more contact than a guy like Ryan Howard or Mark Reynolds, or even fellow prospect Pedro Alvarez?(roberto21pops8 from CT)

He's always going to have big strikeout numbers, but he's also the one prospect in baseball most likely to hit 50 home runs in a season. (Kevin Goldstein)

I had an email exchange with Will Carroll about Howard yesterday and something I threw out there was a Frank Howard "what if" comp. Ryan Howard is 30, which is the same age Hondo began turning from being a free-swinging slugger into a more disciplined slugger. As a result, his walk totals went up and his OPS skyrocketed for three or four years. He was obviously a very large man -- bigger than his Phillies namesake -- and perhaps Ryan Howard is about to morph from an all-star into a mega-star. Is that more likely than him becoming the next Mo Vaughn? It is really up to him, I suppose. (David Laurila)

You know how when there is a great defensive play to end an inning and the guy who made the play leads off the next at bat, the announcer always says "how many times have you seen it where the player who made a great defensive play to end an inning leads off the next at bat".
Wouldn't it be great if somebody on TV said "you know, this happens about 11% of the time"?(ChuckR from Addison, IL)

That would be fantastic. It would also be cool to find out about success rates after big home runs. Like Ryan Howard hits a huge 3-run homer with two outs and then the next at-bat is anti-climactic. How often does the next guy single? How often does the batter/fielder in your situation come through with the bat after making the great play? For that matter, how often do batters step out of the box and nod their head after getting a called strike? (Eric Seidman)

Will the Brewers lock up Prince Fielder to a long-term extension? Should they? "Old player skills" or not, I think the guy can destroy NL Central pitching for another good 5-6 years...(Cpt. Clarence Oveur from Do you like movies about gladiators?)

I'd be worried about his body type more than his skills, since the typical formulation of old player skills requires a low batting average. The answer ALWAYS depends on the price. If the price is right, go nuts. If not, I'd pass. That's another cop out, isn't it? If they could get something along the lines of Ryan Howard's deal (3/$54), it'd be a great deal. (Tommy Bennett)

Will the Brewers lock up Prince Fielder to a long-term extension? Should they? "Old player skills" or not, I think the guy can destroy NL Central pitching for another good 5-6 years...(Cpt. Clarence Oveur from Do you like movies about gladiators?)

I'd be worried about his body type more than his skills, since the typical formulation of old player skills requires a low batting average. The answer ALWAYS depends on the price. If the price is right, go nuts. If not, I'd pass. That's another cop out, isn't it? If they could get something along the lines of Ryan Howard's deal (3/$54), it'd be a great deal.

The real question is whether Fielder has ever seen the inside of a Turkish prison. (Tommy Bennett)

Okay, so in what universe exactly would a Pujols for Howard deal actually happen? Would we all be wearing evil goatees?(Tim from Tampa)

Let’s strip away the names Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols for a moment. A team with a view to win now upgrades one of their position players to a nicer model on a shorter-term contract, even despite the fact that he’d be a two-years-and-gone guy. The other team is in some longer-term financial difficulty and realizes they won’t be able to sign their really good player. So, they trade for a slight downgrade who’s a little more financially manageable for them and can be signed longer-term so that they don’t completely lose out if the original guy leaves in two years. These trades happen from time to time, but they’re usually among mid-range players. That said, I don’t think this particular deal will happen, but I don’t think it’s illogical, Captain. (Russell A. Carleton)

I am in an auction draft and I have Howard at 47 bucks, I am tempted to throw him back in the pot, with the thinking he won't go for anymore then that price . Should I keep him? Throw him back in with the hope to get him cheaper or another Howard-like player?(Philly Fan...but... from Philly )

Marc Normandin is our fantasy guru and he'd be a better guy to ask but I think Ryan Howard is still one of the game's premier sluggers and should be for a few years. I'd say keep him and if he has a bad year then don't blame me. (John Perrotto)

Two part question:
1. Can you speculate on the size of Lincecum's arbitration deal, should he and the Giants go that route?
2. Given that Timmy is going to get a lot of money whether he hits arbitration or not, will the Giants be able to add any offense this off-season? If you're the Giants GM, do you go trade/FA, and who do you target?(Gregjitsu from Southern Cal)

We had an internal discussion about this the other day and it's tough to speculate about Lincecum's arb deal because no pitcher won Cy Young Awards in his 2nd and 3rd seasons. His career has been unprecedented to date. Ryan Howard previously set the record for a player in a similar situation, after winning ROTY and MVP in his first two years. I could see Lincecum easily breaking that, so the Giants may want to work out an extension as opposed to going year to year. Regardless of their choice, they could still sign someone like Nick Johnson or get Josh Willingham. (Eric Seidman)

Jay, I assume the Yankees will start Sabathia twice on short rest in order to get him three starts; would the Yankees be wise to start Pettitte once of short rest (games 3+6) in order to get 5 lefty starts in a seven game series? Or is the platoon advantage vs. the Phillies not THAT important? Or do you think the Yankees will through in Gaudin and go with a 4 man rotation?(Nick Stone from New York, NY)

Hey, Nick! I spent a good deal of time trying to figure out the two teams' rotation options on a game-by-game basis. Cutting and pasting from the preview, here's what I came up with:

While the Phillies hit lefties about as well as righties in the regular season, they haven't been all that successful doing so in the postseason, batting at a .194/.322/.444 clip, with a few big hits — Ryan Howard's two-run double off Clayton Kershaw, his homer off Randy Wolf, and Raul Ibanez's homer off George Sherrill - offsetting their woes. My read on Sabathia and Pettitte is that they're better than the Dodger southpaw starters at this point in time, so yes, I do think it makes sense to throw more lefties at them, particularly given that Gaudin doesn't match up well with them at all. (Jay Jaffe)

You've mentioned in the past that you don't really like to do player comparisons (Chris Carter is a right-handed Ryan Howard for example).
Can you give a few quick reasons why?(Jeff from Topanga)

I don't like them unless they are obvious, and at times, I find them to be very very lazy. Take for example the common Dominic Brown/Daryl Strawberry one that gets thrown around everywhere. Why is it there? Because Brown is tall, long, left-handed and African-American. Is he like Straw as a player? No. (Kevin Goldstein)

Zack Greinke should win the AL Cy Young, right? And Felix Hernandez should be his only real competition, right? Please tell me that Verlander and Sabathia won't snipe this award.(Scotty from KC)

Zack should win; he's had one of the great seasons of the decade this year, and with the Little Sisters of the Poor playing behind him to bood. I think he's going to, because the public opinion on him has come around over the last few weeks in a similar manner to that regarding Mauer.

And the Phillies score again because Carlos Gonzalez runs into the wall and fails to make the catch on a Ryan Howard fly ball, 3-0. I know it's windy there, but whatever happened to quality outfield play? (Jay Jaffe)

Is it a coincidence that there is a character named Ryan Howard on "The Office", which is set in Scranton, home of the Phillies AAA team?(The Flying Bernard from Acton, MA)

If you know that producer/writer Michael Schur is also Ken Tremendous of Fire Joe Morgan fame, then it's impossible to read it as a coincidence, particularly given that Howard did play there in 2005. It's now home of the Yankees' Triple-A club, however.

There's also a character on "The Office" named Kevin Malone. I'm not sure what the connection is there to Scranton, but that it's a baseball name probably isn't a coincidence either. (Jay Jaffe)

How should the Phillies use Pedro in the playoffs?(The Flying Bernard from Acton, MA)

In the bullpen in the first round, as I think they should start Happ in Game Three, and maybe Eyre in Game Four, if the Rockies persist in bring all Ryan Howard against lefties.

Second round depends on the matchups. Martinez seems able to throw 100-110 pitches, and I don't know how well he can pitch three times in five days. Lots of unknowns here. Maybe Pedro is the backup starter for when an actual starter ever gets bombed. (Joe Sheehan)

I can't find a site to let me view stats from two specific dates. I'm curious how Garrett Jones' production since his first game this season compare to the rest of MLB. He has to be top 10 in homers.(Dorn from DC)

Are you as shocked as I am that Mark Reynolds is a 40 homer guy? What do you see for the next few years?(Rob from Alaska)

Yeah. I figured he would be a high strikeout guy who would hit 28-34 per season in his prime. I don't know if he'll be a consistent 40-HR threat like Adam Dunn (who literally hits 40 per year.. c'mon Adam, only hit 5 more this yr!) or Ryan Howard, but I think the Dbacks would be perfectly fine with 33-36. (Eric Seidman)

Do you think Dayton Moore should trade Soria for a big time bat? Also what do you think KC could get for him?(Jake H from Kansas City)

I love Soria as much as the next guy but what kind of big time bat are you talking about? Given the fickle nature of closers and how very few actually remain dominant for a long period of time, as well as the fact that a big bat will get 600-700 PAs a year, I don't see this working out. Maybe they can trade Soria for a few good, not great, pieces capable of immediately filling holes, but we're not going to see a Soria for Ryan Howard or Soria for Adam Dunn or Soria for Teixeira deal. The big-time bats likely cannot be afforded by the Royals anyway. (Eric Seidman)

Say some good things about Ryan Howard's baseball playing ability.(Jeff from Princeton)

He's probably the best left-handed hitter against right-handed pitchers in MLB. He's disciplined, he has plate coverage, and he can go line-to-line. I'm not sure I wouldn't take him over Pujols with a righty on the mound. (Joe Sheehan)

great work on your "royal" piece; following on that note, if after the season is over, the following scenario appears: Ryan Howard and Carlos Carrasco for Greinke and Kila: a) who do you think is getting the better deal? b)Would the Royals think they are getting the better deal?(mo from las vegas)

Carrasco's stock has fallen precipitously lately and Kila, though highly touted, is certainly unproven, so you're basically asking if Moore would trade Greinke for Ryan Howard. I know many KC fans think negatively about Moore but there is no way even he would make that move. (Eric Seidman)

Is Haren straight up for Ryan Howard a fair deal? Or should Haren net more? Also, are you higher on Lester or Lackey for the rest of the year?
Thanks!(dantroy from davis)

I'm loathe to trade high quality pitchers for hitters. Haren is like a 3.5 category pitcher (4 if the D'backs win some games for once) and Howard is more like a 2.5/3 cat guy. If you've got more pitching and are desperate for a bat, maybe, but I personally wouldn't. (Marc Normandin)

Any hope for Land of the Lost? Has Will Ferral done anything really funny since Zoolander? Could we call hime the Ryan Howard of film?(Andy from Boston )

I was talking to a friend of mine about this recently, and we came to the conclusion that a lot of these guys struggle when carrying their own movie. Put them together, like in Old School, Anchorman, Wedding Crashers, and they really bring the funny. But the movies these actors attempt to carry on their own generally don't turn out all that well. (Eric Seidman)

No, no, no. Have I made myself clear? As I have mentioned in my BP pieces numerous times, context is the key when evaluating splits. Lefty hitters fare worse against LHPs than righty's, it's a proven fact. When looking at Howard, you want to compare his performance against LHPs to the league average LHH-LHP performance, NOT his own individual split. There were some studies done over at The Good Phight in the off-season essentially showing that Howard was right on par with the league average for hitting same-handed pitching. No, he might not have deserved the MVP award in 2006, but he is in no way a scrub. Add in his really solid glovework this year that has largely gone unnoticed and he is a valuable asset. (Eric Seidman)

Two. One, Manuel needs to break up the three lefties. Two, I remain confused about what it means when a player loses a lot of weight between seasons. I've heard tell, in the past, that it means...well, something other than what I was told it meant about Ryan Howard last night.

Marc,
It seems to me that 3 cat power hitters ala Howard tend to be overvalued compared to 3 cat speedsters like Pierre(when playing) or tavares. ??? Any reason for this?(Joe from Mich)

Probably because in real-life, Ryan Howard is worth a roster spot and the other player is a total drain on your resources and limited supply of outs. We have a natural tendency to dislike players that we know aren't useful (really, it's for the best); just because you can exploit them in fantasy baseball doesn't mean they are any good. I don't mind using guys like Pierre to get a boost in stats like steals, but I'm a much bigger believer in putting together a balanced roster so you don't have to deal with guys like Pierre.

On the same note, Howard is not what I would call a balanced player in a standard league, because as you said he's a three category guy. Let people overrate him so you can snag a less flashy four or five category guy who won't hit for as much power or drive in as many runs, but will do much more for your bottom line. (Marc Normandin)

In a real-life context, would you trade Carlos Pena for Ryan Howard, straight up? (Show your work!)(Stephanie from DC)

In a real-life context? Absolutely. Let's get very real-life about this one if you want me to show my work. Ryan Howard is making $15M this year, the first in a three-year extension. If you assign a dollar value to a win above replacement (think something like MORP, or what Fangraphs has been doing with their own WAR), this upcoming season is probably the only one in which Howard, now 30 years old, will be worth it monetarily. The rest of the time he will be paid more than his production merits. He would have to be a bit more valuable than he was in 2007, never mind 2008, in order to justify the money involved.

Carlos Pena on the other hand, is under contract for two more years, at $8M this year and $10.125M in 2010, and should have, based on last season, made about $17M for his production. He had a better year than Howard (two years running, actually) and is just one year older. You'll get more bang for your buck for Pena, and could probably re-sign him to another short-term deal much cheaper than you would Howard.

The difference may be subtle and focused more on money than anything, but it's definitely something to consider. (Marc Normandin)

Is there ever a way you could see the Phillies ranking ahead of the Mets using any system out there? No matter what the Phillies do, the Mets are better, despite the glaring holes at 2B, the outfield corners, and the shaky starting rotation, yet the Mets are a 92-95 win team, year in and year out. (Brian from Philly)

Relax, Phillies fans. Seriously, chill out. Are you really the bunch of pantywaist crybabies so many of you seem to be when we at BP criticize various aspects of your team (Ryan Howard's defense and failings against lefties, for example). I thought you were supposed to be the toughest fans in sports. Your team has a flag that will fly forever, so does it really matter that PECOTA is giving the Mets a few games in the preseason standings?

It's no secret that the Mets underachieved over the last two years, but PECOTA loves loves loves David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran in particular, and it has a few more suspicions about the Phillies' staff, particularly the back ends of the rotation and the bullpen, enough to edge the Mets ahead. I wouldn't lose much sleep over it during the first week of March; PECOTA says both teams will be contenders, and you really ought to be able to live with that. (Jay Jaffe)

I think the Ryan Howard deal was a bit of a loser for the Phillies, but at least--for them--they didn't go too overboard. What kind of numbers do you see Ryan Howard putting up in 3 years? 5 years? (Jason from NY)

I think the Phillies played this perfectly. Howard is going to go off the cliff quickly but not for at least three years. He'll continue to be a productive hitter through 2011 and then the Phillies can cut bait without taking the PR hit from their fans. (John Perrotto)

With the massive signing of Ryan Howard, are the Phillies stuck with having to hang on to him as he ages to support the high quality core of Utley, Rollins, Hamels? Or will they be able to stomach the idea of unloading him before his production falls off a cliff as he ages? (I'm convinced his decline will be just as swift as his ascent at the majors has been)(Aaron from YYZ)

I touch on this a bit in today's TA, but basically I think the length isn't unreasonable, although the value is probably unmovable. Relatively speaking, I'll take that trade-off; it isn't like they're stuck Helton-style the way the Rockies are for at least another three seasons (plus paying off a 2012 option for $4.6 million). (Christina Kahrl)

If you were advising the Phillies, what feels right for $ and years for Ryan Howard? Although he's only been a star for three years, he's already pushing 30, with a body you figure may not age like Jamie Moyer.(Tom from Philadelphia)

I go to arbitration every season. There's no way he ages well, and in fact, he's been in a fairly steep decline since 2006. Howard has certainly passed Ichiro to become the most overrated player in baseball. (Joe Sheehan)

Why are the arbitration salary numbers so inflated while free agent salaries are declining? Are GMs afraid that the arbitrators won't take the declining market into consideration? Ryan Howard's 2008 WARP was just below Pat Burrell's, yet Howard stands to make as much in one year as Burrell will make in two. Would the Phillies have been better off non-tendering Howard and then re-signing him on the open market?(Daniel from Michigan)

Buster Olney addressed this today, noting that the specific guidelines with the way arb cases are prepared mean that this current economic climate isn't something that's taken into consideration; rather, it has to do with how much money comparable players earned in prior years. Where you're more likely to see change is when this current set of salaries comes to bear on cases down the road.

As for non-tendering Howard, he would have then become a free agent, eligible to sign with any team, and there's no guarantee he would have wanted to go back to the Phillies after just such a stunt. (Jay Jaffe)

With the Brewers offering 6 million for Fielder and him asking for 8--who is the favorite in the clubhouse?(braden23 from madison wi)

That's actually a strikingly reasonable figure from both sides, particularly given the acrimony that's developed between the Boras-Fielder team and the Brewers themselves and that Ryan Howard and the Phillies went $10 million vs. $7 million in his case at the same stage of his career. However, I think this is going to become a moot point because it sounds as though the two sides are working towards a two-year deal worth around $20 million. [Done deal before I even finished the chat, two years, $18 million: http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/38154214.html] (Jay Jaffe)

I don't have a strong interest in either World Series team. Can you outline some reasons to root for each team?(Andy from Gettysburg College)

Well, first, you can root for the baseball season to last seven more games instead of the minimum four. Second, there are good storylines here, some of which are kind of obvious, such as the 1969 Mets-like rise of the Rays. The Phillies are also a generally downtrodden franchise with a whole bunch of fun players like Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, and Brad Lidge. (Steven Goldman)

The Phillies' biggest power threat in the 1915 World Series was Gavvy Cravath. Is it fair to say that he was a far superior hitter to Ryan Howard?(Cambridge from BP Northeast)

I love my readers. I mean that sincerely. Let's take the question seriously and take a look at the translated stats at BP provided by Clay Davenport III. Clay fixes Cravath's 1915, by far his best season at 10.6 WARP, at .278/.399/.628 with 55 HR, 104 BB, 124 Ks. Howard's numbers, subject to the same translation, come out to .250/.340/.559. Now, what you have to keep in mind is that Howard is a giant of a man even by our meat-eating standards today, whereas Cravath had the smaller stature of a man born in 1881 (perspective: FDR was born in 1882). As such, I doubt there's any real comparison, but in context, yes, Cravath was the man. (Steven Goldman)

Should the Sox try to reacquire Shoppach or is he not worth trading for?(jake from boston)

Last chat, someone suggested Shoppach for Ryan Howard. I suspect he falls between the two extremes. But yes, you could try to get him. I actually like the idea of buying low on Victor Martinez a little better. (Joe Sheehan)

Can the tribe trade Kelly Shoppach for Ryan Howard? Does that deal make sense for both squads...
And: If you're Towers do you take Cano and Hughes for Jake Peavy?(thomas from harrisburg)

Bret? Is that you?

Neither of these trades make sense. I'm as down on Ryan Howard as anyone, but I'm not dealing him for a marginal starting catcher coming off of a career half-season. Good god.

And no, I don't trade one of the best SPs in baseball for a slow 2B who never walks and doesn't play defense but who costs a lot of money. That trade offer might even get you laughed off of WFAN. (Joe Sheehan)

Ryan Howard very possibly could be the only Major Leaguer with 40 or more homers this year. Do you like the return to a bit more of a balanced game, and do you think this could be the start of a trend?(bossfan101 from Gresham, OR)

Offense is down, and my only real problem with it is that it makes the story too easy for people who like to write easy stories. In fact, offense ebbs and flows over time, and I don't have any particular preference. I do like a variety of possible outcomes, and we have that now--you might see a 1-0 game, a 6-2 game, a 5-4 game, a 13-12 game. That, to me, is what makes a sport work. It's why soccer doesn't work, and why hockey had all those problems before they changed some rules. You need a range of possible outcomes. I don't care if it's an eight-run league, a nine-run league or a ten-run league, as long as you know the games won't all be the same. The 1960s...I know people love them, but they had to be deathly boring at the time, even though no one will cop to it. (Joe Sheehan)

which is more doable: hughes, montero for ryan howard or hughes, montero, horne for hanley?(david from sonoma)

Well, if I'm Pat Gillick, I do the first deal in a heartbeat. Ryan Howard just isn't that good, and we've already seen his peak. The gap between his perceived value and actual value may be as high as any player in the game. (Joe Sheehan)

Are we assuming good faith in this deal? Often a league has someone in it who is the Randy Smith of fantasy GMs and just gets suckered by everybody. I think that guy is fair game -- if he wears diapers, he shouldn't have been allowed in the league in the first place. I'm not for exercising the veto except in really apparent cases of dumping... You know, there was a parallel case in actual baseball, where for awhile Bowie Kuhn was negating trades just because he didn't like the players involved. He was actually sitting there and passing judgment on what the GMs were doing. Imagine if Bud Selig came in and said "Mets, you're overpaying for Johan Santana. No deal." That kind of thing was happening, and the more obvious opposite case as well, where he would have said, "Twins, Carlos Gomez isn't good enough. You need to hold out for a better position player or no deal." Like much of Kuhn's reign it was pathetic and unintentionally comical. (Steven Goldman)

How much does it pain you to have to rank the Phillies ahead of the Braves and Mets, two darlings of BP? Even when the Phillies play well, its "yeah but", while the shortcomings of other teams are glossed over. In fact, Joe Sheehan produced a wonderful piece today about the fluky Phillies bullpen, and how the house of cards will come tumbling down soon. I know that everyone is rooting hard for the Mets to come good on those predictions of 100 wins, but come on, be fair at least in the coverage of the Phillies.(Jim from Philly)

Jim, I feel no pain when the rankings come out, I simply try to evaluate what I'm seeing on the field and on the stat sheet and translate it for my readers. If the Mets stink, they stink, and if PECOTA is wrong about their preseason prediction, the sun will still come out tomorrow. I lose no sleep over that; on the contrary, figuring out the WHY is the fun of it.

I've noted the Phillies' bullpen success recently, and while I'm skeptical it can be maintained at the level of excellence it's currently shown, I also expect Ryan Howard to hit better and help the offense out. They're thin in the pitching department, but so are the Braves and Mets, especially given the latter two teams' injuries. (Jay Jaffe)

Should I be worried with Ryan Howard this year? He does have 12 home runs but his average is hovering around the .200 range.(Philly from PA)

No! You see the home run he hit into the second tier at Nationals Park the other day? First one hit in that range ever. He's got three home runs in the last two games, and he always starts heating up this time of year, and then has a huge second half. He'll be an MVP candidate. (Caleb Peiffer)

Who is more lost at the plate right now Carlos Pena or Ryan Howard?(miker from new york, ny)

Pena has a .238 ISO and is drawing walks in 14% of his PA. Howard has a .185 ISO and is walking in 15.6%...Howard's hitting poorly at home, but not as poorly on the road. If you're forcing a decision, I'd say Howard. (Marc Normandin)

So Joe. We're a month in, and shockingly, the Mets haven't clinched the East yet. Do the Phillies have a shot at 75 wins this year? They've had their best April in recent memory, and have done so without Rollins and Victorino for the last 3 weeks, and with Ryan Howard looking more and more like dead in the water Mo Vaughn. Is it time to possibly start giving them their respect after basically writing them off before the season even started?(Ryan from Philly)

And with Chase Utley hitting like Rogers Hornsby, and Pat Burrell and Jayson Werth over their heads. It all counts, Ryan. Romero, Lidge and Durbin have a 32/22 K/BB and a collective ERA under 1.00. The Phillies are 15-13, +11, which is basically the team I thought they were. They'll be in the hunt, and probably fall short when the pitching does. Lovely park, though. (Joe Sheehan)

At what point do you think it's ok to say "what the heck, I'll take Pujols?" I can't remember a no doubt first round pick falling so much in people's draft rankings over an injury he's had for 4 years.
(Steve from Chicago)

Steve I think if he makes it to the second round you almost have to do it. If you are sitting at #10 in the first and it's between him, Utley or Ryan Howard I pass and take Howard or Utley. In a mock draft last night I saw Utley go at #10 and Pujols go in same slot on way back. That is sweet. (Mike Siano)

During the commercial break, my girlfriend played with a cat toy, but instead of a cat, she did it with the pit bull. He got the cat toy, and now there is no more cat toy . . . Top of the second and Ryan Howard whiffs against David Price in one of the more predictable matchups of the game. (Kevin Goldstein)

After facing 10 batters in the fourth and still only two out, Lannan's finally pulled in DC. Jesse English makes his major league debut against Ryan Howard with the bases loaded - and gets him to ground out. Nats down 5-1. (Clay Davenport)

After facing 10 batters in the fourth and still only two out, Lannan's finally pulled in DC. Jesse English makes his major league debut against Ryan Howard with the bases loaded - and gets him to ground out. Nats down 5-1. (Clay Davenport)

Actually, if there are two outs, why not let Hughes pitch to Utley? He just proved against Sabathia that he doesn't have any platoon issues, and that's true in the regular season as well. And Hughes > Marte. Marte is a must for Ryan Howard, but not a necessity for Utley. (Steven Goldman)

That's about as hung as hung can get. If you want to break your curve INTO the strike zone as opposed to out of it, that's a good thing and it takes a lot of guts. If you are right-handed and break it into the top of the strike zone center-cut for Ryan Howard, well you see what happens. (Kevin Goldstein)

It's just a shame to see a team lose this way. There are so few absolutes, and one is that you can't let Ryan Howard face a righty if the run matters. It's not like he's an unknown quantity. It's not like we haven't been having this discussion for three years.

I don't care how many saves the guy has: letting Huston Street, or any right-handed pitcher alive, face Ryan Howard with the season on the line is a mistake. Jim Tracy is making a huge mistake, and if it works, great, but it's a huge, massive mistake.(Joe Sheehan)

Awesome dive by Francisco, but I might even be more impressed that Ryan Howard saved his throw. I don't watch much Phillie baseball and therefore don't know about Howard's defense, but I think there are defnitely MLB 1B that wouldn't get that far off the bag and play the short-hop save that well. (William Burke)

"jessehoffins (Swarthmore, PA): Joe, I hate Howard (and love numbers) just as much as all of the other mets fans who find themselves in the philly media market, but, BUT... You don't go to the world series and then bench the player 30% of the world thinks is the MVP. Its just not a realistic understanding of baseball. "

I'll happily compare my understanding of baseball's basis in reality with that 30%.

Ryan Howard can't hit lefties and he's a poor defensive first baseman. The day either of these things changes, I'll stop calling him a platoon player and mocking the people who think he's an MVP candidate.

Honestly. This is where we are as a society. Facts just don't matter.(Joe Sheehan)

Speaking of which (looking ahead to Phils' next at bat), interesting that Ryan Howard is 2-for-14 in this series but has only struck out twice. You'd think he he made that kind of contact, balls would be flying all over the place. (Steven Goldman)