Chuck Chiang: China-Taiwan talks take first step to improving ties

Chuck Chiang, Vancouver Sun Columnist02.16.2014

A cross-straits ferry loads on the island of Pingtan, in China’s southeastern Fujian province, for the journey to Taiwan. Despite political differences, China and Taiwan are more closely tied economically than at any time in 65 years.

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The big geopolitical news in Asia last week was the historic Zhang-Wang meeting, as it was dubbed in Chinese media.

It was the first meeting between official representatives of the Beijing and Taipei governments since the Chinese civil war ended in 1949 and marks a symbolic milestone in cross-strait relations. But whether it was significant enough to effect palpable change remains to be determined, observers say.

In the 65 years since the Chinese Communist Party emerged victorious in the war while the Nationalists (Kuomingtang, or KMT) retreated to the island of Taiwan, relations between the two sides often shifted between mutual denunciation and outright hostility.

A 1992 consensus hammered out by quasi-official representatives from civilian institutions (they basically agreed to disagree on the definition of China) marked the first step to a normalized relationship, and many experts say last week’s meeting in Nanjing can be view as a “next step” towards a peaceful resolution.

It hasn’t always been smooth sailing. Since 1992, the political climate across the Taiwan Strait has, more often than not, been determined by who was elected to office in Taipei, while Beijing remained steadfast in its view that Taiwan is a renegade province that is an integral part of Chinese sovereign territory.

In the early 2000s, when Taiwan elected pro-independence president Chen Shui-bian and his Pan-Green allies, tensions between Beijing and Taipei rose.

In 2008, KMT came back to power under President Ma Ying-jeou. This led to a rapid warming of relations, and both sides allowed direct flights, mail and freight services, economic investment, trade and cultural liaisons.

Today, ties between Taiwan and Mainland China may be the closest in 65 years. There are almost 700 weekly flights between Mainland China and Taiwanese destinations. According to Foreign Policy journalist Isaac Stone Fish, bilateral trade in 2013 reach $192.7 billion, almost double the amount in 2008 when Ma took office.

Bloomberg reports that Mainland China accounts for 40 per cent of Taiwan’s exports, and 2.85 million Mainland tourists visited Taiwan last year (which was more than double the number of visitors from Japan, the next largest origin nation, according to The China Post).

In that sense, last week’s meeting between Zhang Zhijun (from China’s Taiwan Affairs Office) and Wang Yu-chi (Taiwan’s Mainland affairs council minister) can be seen as further evidence of the two sides getting closer.

Observers suggest the symbolic nature of the meeting may outweigh the practical outcome. Indeed significant change to the uneasy status quo of economic partnership without political consensus may be further away than it appears.

Firstly, neither side has changed its goals.

Last week’s meeting was described as cordial, but it almost certainly avoided sensitive political topics. It is unfathomable that Beijing would relax its views that Taiwan falls under the administrative umbrella of China, and it is equally unfathomable that Taiwan would stop seeking legitimacy in the eyes of other governments, Beijing included.

While both sides consider the Nanjing meeting as another step to opening communications, Beijing sees the meeting as leading to reunification talks, while Taiwan’s government sees it as part of gaining legitimacy in an eventual “normalized” relationship with Mainland China. Very little has changed ideologically.

Media reports indicate that Chinese officials outside of the Taiwan Affairs Office addressed Wang as “Mr. Wang” instead of by his government title, further outlining how tight a line Beijing officials walk when showing any sense of legitimacy to Taiwanese officials.

That isn’t to say the symbolic nature of the meeting should be downplayed. Dr. Yves Tiberghien, director of the Institute of Asian Research at UBC, said the meeting — and the possibility of the establishment of Mainland Chinese representative offices in Taiwan and vice-versa — suggests a level of de facto mutual recognition not seen before in cross-strait relations.

“Although the meeting may have slightly different meaning for both sides, it nonetheless takes both sides further than the time of the 1992 consensus, since it has opened institutional channels between the relevant ministries of both sides,” Tiberghien said.

“It finally offers both sides a direct channel between relevant offices to solve concrete problems, such as medical insurance for Taiwanese students in mainland China or visas for journalists.

“This meeting also has very positive implications for peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region and all neighbours will applaud this outcome with continued relief.”

Foreign Policy’s Fish compared Beijing’s move as a “force mate” in chess, where a player manoeuvres his or her pieces “to guarantee victory in a set number of moves, regardless of what the opponent does.” Fish’s point is that aligning Taiwan more closely to Mainland China’s gigantic market of 1.3 billion people will, when combined with the island’s diplomatic isolation and its vague relationship with Washington, eventually create an interdependence from which Taipei may have difficulty extricating itself.

In democratic Taiwan, most voters prefer the status quo where they seek the economic opportunities that closer ties with Beijing brings, but remain uneasy about the prospects of unification. That raises some anxiety in Beijing. While Chinese President Xi Jinping has said the reunification question can’t be passed on from generation to generation, Taipei does not appear to be in a hurry to deal with the question.

Ma is scheduled to step down in 2016, and the prospects of a new leader — perhaps one with a less rosy relationship with Beijing — may complicate things.

Beijing has reiterated many times that everything is negotiable — including how the island is governed — if Taiwan fully accepts the “One China” policy and Beijing’s authority. But some observers have pointed to the Hong Kong model and that’s a model that has been rejected by Taipei officials.

For now, Wang and Zhang have agreed to talk more, even if Beijing has already refused a direct meeting of Xi and Ma later this year.

One thing remains on the side of a peaceful resolution of cross-strait relations: Cultural similarities including a common language.

Blogger Yueran Zhang wrote in the blog “Tea Leaf Nation” that his recent visit to the Shilin Night Market in Taipei brought a sense of cultural clarity for him.

“I smelled alluring Chinese food and heard peddlers calling out in Chinese from behind food stands,” said Zhang, who was raised in Mainland China. “I felt as if I were in Shanghai or Guangzhou; a sense of intimacy washed over me. I started to realize how much the people there shared with us; and for a moment, the all-consuming political argument about independence seemed trivial — even humiliating.”

If a consensus can be extended from both sides from that cultural familiarity and warmth, then perhaps there’s room for optimism.

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