How worried should Cochran be about this primary challenge? And does McDaniels have any difficulty winning a general election?

A: Chris Cillizza

Worried...although McDaniel has had a terrible last week as drips and drabs of dumb things he said as a radio host in the mid 2000s have come out.

I think McDaniel is more problematic as a potential nominee than he was a month ago, a point Cochran allies are trying to drive home -- reminding people of what happened with Akin and Mourdock in 2012.

If the Dems, hold the Senate, the House stays about the same and Dems gain a few governorships (thinking PA, FL and ME), what is the narrative coming from the GOP and would 2014 be considered a failure for them?

A: Chris Cillizza

Stop after your first clause.

If Democrats hold the Senate, 2014 will be a failure for Republicans. Period.

What do you think of the chances that Chelsea Clinton's unborn baby has in the 2064 presidential election? I think we can safely say the fetus is clearly the frontrunner at the moment and has the donor network to scare off potential challengers to the nomination.

Chris, I'm a big fan of your column and these discussion, but I do think this writer from salon.com has a point. Do you care to respond?
http://www.salon.com/2014/04/15/chris_cillizza_call_your_office_buffoonish_obamacare_critic_gets_it_all_wrong_again/

True story: About 2 months ago, I got 2 new pairs of glasses. While we were at the store, Mrs. Fix suggested I also gets contacts. I said sure. In order for them to give you contacts though, you have to be able to put them in your eyes by yourself. After 20+ minutes of failure, I gave up.

Nobody will sign up. They did. Oh, it's who signs up, I mean. Come on-Obamacare is not the albatross the Beltway media is portraying it as. It's a codeword for conservatives but it's no different in that regard from Benghazi. The gloom and doom for Democrats due to the ACA is way off.

A: Chris Cillizza

Don't disagree. But Democratic base voters need to show they feel the same way. Again, the issue isn't the overall numbers on the ACA, it's the intensity question.

...that by November Obamacare is working well (in terms of quality of care available, and without too many people experiencing jolting premium increases) and the economy continues improving, so that the Democrats can hang on to their Senate majority?

A: Chris Cillizza

Hmmm...maybe a 35%-40% chance.

Remember that one of the big issues for Democrats is the states where these targeted Senate races are happening.

Alaska, Arkansas, North Carolina, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia...not a lean D state among them.

1. New album from "The Both": Aimee Mann and Ted Leo!
2. New music from Jamestown Revival! Kinda country-rock.
3. Not new, but please check out Scottish singer-songwriter Karine Polwart . . . if one song, give "Waterlily" a listen.

The program is doing far better than many expected six months ago. If, in another six months, things continue to go smoothly, does this impact GOP turnout at the polls for the midterms? In other words, at what point will anger over the ACA start to dissipate? (Or does it ever?)

A: Chris Cillizza

For the Republican base, I am not sure the anger/dislike will ever dissipate. I am sure it won't dissipate before November.

Isn't it obvious it was the Tyrells? They have the motive, the means, Margaerey didn't seem at all concerned when Joffrey started choking and the grandmother said that thing about the Red Wedding to Sansa mid episode

A: Chris Cillizza

Yeah, but....

Margaery is now not queen and their family is just another rich family.

Hi Chris,
Let's say that Jeb Bush doesn't run, and Marco Rubio's earlier immigration efforts trip him up in the GOP primaries. It's down to Rand Paul and Ted Cruz: which one is less unpalatable to the GOP mainstream? (We'll also pretend that Ryan, Walker, et al are not factors here.)

A: Chris Cillizza

No way.

Ryan/Walker/Kasich/Jindal/Christie all are credible establishment picks that would challenge Rand and Cruz.

How would you rate the Republican intensity level in 2014 as compared to 2010, which was a disaster for Democrats? If 2010 was 100, it seems this year is 70-80, especially with the Tea Party wing somewhat squelched. What do you think?

A: Chris Cillizza

Makes sense to me. Also, we are still a ways from the November election so it remains to be seen where GOP intensity (and D intensity) sits by then.

Chris,
There's lots of discussion about this in terms of demography, generational politics, etc. In your opinion, how likely is it that Texas ever turns blue - or even purple? And if so, can you compare it politically to a state right now? (i.e. it will break down similar to the way that ___ does now.) Thanks.

A: Chris Cillizza

2020/2022.

I think the 2022 governor's race -- which would be open assuming Greg Abbott wins this fall and serves two terms would be, demographically speaking, a real chance for Democrats statewide.

I've never answered a poll question honestly in my entire life (I'm waaaay older than you) and I don't know anyone else that has either. Most people joke about how stupid polls are. So why do politicians and the media depend on them so much?

A: Chris Cillizza

Because they are statistically sound sampling of the electorate.

The fact that someone hasn't been polled is not a sign that polls are invalid. They rely on a representative sample of 500-1000 people. So, in a country this large, it's uniquely possible you will never be polled in your entire life.

The Tea Party is recruiting Sen Coburn to help get state legislatures to convene[Article 5]for purposes of nullifying existing laws; bypassing Congress. Your opinion on feasibility and effects on civil society if successful.

Why do I not care about McAllister kissing a staffer? I get that he's married, I do love the schadenfreude of a conservative "family values" party member getting caught being naughty, but really? For some reason this just isn't a big deal to me (full disclosure: Not a Lousianan). Am I too jaded?

A: Chris Cillizza

Well, the problem for him is, as you note, he ran as a family values conservative and he has been in office for less thsan 6 months.

There's so many polls from so many different pollsters and the rise of cell phone only households and getting accurate samples of the electoral when we don't know who is going to show up in November and in what numbers and very public missteps by the brand name pollsters, what's a politics enthusiast to do? Whose numbers should we trust? Who has the accurate read on the races?

A: Chris Cillizza

It's so so hard now.

I use the few polls I know are good -- WaPo-ABC, NBC-WSJ -- and then look at the basic trendlines in polling on all specific races.

Can we be honest with ourselves here? It could come out that McDaniel killed a man and he would still beat Childers. This is Mississippi, not Nevada, not Missouri, not Indiana. Demographics are destiny and (white) people in Mississippi are now firmly enough committed to the GOP it's going to take a lot more than a Senate candidate making statements a lot of them agree with to make them elect a Democrat

A: Chris Cillizza

This argument is why I think McDaniel starts the race -- if he is the GOP nominee -- as the favorite.

If I took a trip to New Hampshire the week before the Presidential primary, how likely is it that I could shake the hand of many of the candidates? Or only attend a speech? Are they really everywhere like is portrayed on TV, or are these events mainly just for big party supporters? Thanks for the insight.

A: Chris Cillizza

You could DEFINITELY shake the hand of multiple candidates -- assuming you were willing to go to event to see them.

Governor. 40s. Preferrably minority but not necessarily. Can appeal to the libertarian streak in the party. Has Kemp-style ideas. Smart, but can also appeal to Christian Right. Would pick woman gov VP.
Doesn't Jindal fit that mold better than anyone?

A: Chris Cillizza

Maybe. But he is WAY on the wonky side, had an unneven (at best) introduction to the national press in 2009 and is not all that popular in his home state.

Smart idea: backing a gun-control group that will play the long game and organize at the grassroots.
Dumb idea: being the public face of that movement *at all*. Bloomberg seems deluded about how he's viewed west of the Hudson.
Jane Fonda has been active behind the scenes in liberal politics for many years. She's kept a low profile, because she understands how controversial she is. Bloomberg should emulate her.

I would expect him to stay out of the GOP nomination race, unless Jeb gets in. If his brother does run, I'm sure W will do all he can to help, but that will be mostly behind the scenes. (I'm sure plenty of Republican donors and officeholders would be thrilled to take his call). If any of the candidates engages in hardline anti-immigration rhetoric, I wouldn't be surprised to hear W speak out.
But otherwise I expect to him to maintain a low profile.

Assuming that at least * some* Independent voters who viscerally oppose Obamacare nonetheless sign up for it, then find it's a better deal for them than whatever they used to have -- would they still vote for opponents of Obamacare in November, or would they vote Democratic?

Thanks for spending the hour with me. Remember that we do this thing every Friday at 11 am. Spread the word.

Have a great long(ish) weekend. May you find many easter eggs.

In This Chat

Chris Cillizza

Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and sons.