Inside the Phillies with MLB.com beat writer Todd Zolecki

Losing Ugly

The magic numbers:

1- to clinch the Wild Card.

5 – to clinch the National League East.

7 – to clinch home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Are you pretty confident the Phillies are going to win the division? Do you have tickets to a game this week at Citizens Bank Park? Can you be a little selfish at times? (Come on, admit it.) Yes? Well, then you might not have totally minded Monday’s loss — as sloppy as it was. Because it guaranteed the Phillies cannot clinch the division this week in Houston, which means they should clinch at home during their eight-day, 10-game homestand.

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Roy Oswalt didn’t have a good night, although his defense failed him at times. With just a few starts remaining before the postseason, Oswalt remains the fourth starter in my mind. It’s either Oswalt or Vance Worley, and I have to stick with Oswalt. Worley deserves a chance to pitch, but you only need four starters and Oswalt cannot be much of a reliever while Worley has shown he can pitch effectively out of the bullpen. Plus, he’s Roy Oswalt. I’ve got to think when the postseason comes Oswalt will elevate his play.

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Oswalt allowed five runs on 11 hits as a first-time opponent in Houston. He allowed at least five runs and 10 hits in only three of 149 starts at the ballpark when he pitched for the Astros, according to Elias Sports Bureau.

The inning where they gave up the three runs should never have happened. Sloppy, ugly play was the reason for that, not Oswalt. The only poor pitch Oswalt threw all night was the HR to Lee. That was a meatball.

Worley has done great, but he is generally a 6 inning pitcher and I don’t think the Phillies want to get into a bullpen game with some of the teams they may meet in the NL playoffs.

Whatever the reason for the ugly play the fact remains it was charged to Oswalt. So we are going to absolve the favorites of all responsibility but beat the non-favorites with the same stats? If the Phillies are a better team with Worley in the BP let’s admit it now and move on.and pray we never have to get to a #4 starter.

Perception is a funny thing.
Oswalt and Worley have each started 21 games. Oswalt has pitched 118.1 innings. Worley 117.0. As far as going deep into games, they’re practically the same.
Regardless of whom they decide to make the #4 starter in the playoffs, they’re likely to need the bullpen. It will boil down to which of them they think will give them the best chance to win.

To be accurate, Worley has started 19 games. But Oswalt started a number of games under difficult circumstances and, frankly, probably should have been shut down for longer than he was. His numbers are skewed accordingly. The bottom line is that Oswalt is more capable of going deeper into games at this point of the season and, more importantly, he has been there before.

Ace, Oswalt was injured and he is working his way back. Last night was an indication that he is perfectly capable to go late into games with his effective velocity. If the Phillies hadn’t played the 4th inning like the Keystone Kops the Phillies would have been right in that game. It would have also helped if they scored more than one run. I’ll take Oswalt every single day over Worley in a playoff scenario. I don’t see it as even debatable, and I’m sure Charlie agrees with me.

The degree of certainty in Phan52’s opinion is interesting because that’s how I felt a week or two back. I think it’s fairly discussable at this point, odds still favoring Oswalt. Hard to ignore Vanimal pitching well against a possible opponent he might well see this past Sunday, in their park while Roy O still seeks a return to self. It’s entirely possible that a decision is backed into by uisng a favorable matchup of one or the other in a tight game early in any series. Or even using Worley because a guy’s done well against Oswalt in previous ABs. Hard to imagine Charlie (and Doobee) going young in most circumstances, especially in a 2-1 deficit on the road, but you never know.

phan: The point wasn’t that Worley won’t wind up in the bullpen. The point was that your assertion that Worley “is generally a 6-inning pitcher” ignores the fact that Oswalt is much the same. Prior to his DL stint, Oswalt had only pitched 7 innings twice. Worley has done it 6 times with one complete game.

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