NewEnergyNews

Gleanings from the web and the world, condensed for convenience, illustrated for enlightenment, arranged for impact...

While the OFFICE of President remains in highest regard at NewEnergyNews, this administration's position on the climate crisis makes it impossible to regard THIS president with respect. Below is the NewEnergyNews theme song until 2020.

TODAY’S STUDY: THE STATE OF WIND AND SOLAR FORECASTING

This report is based on a series of interviews with 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western
Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting, jointly referred to as
variable generation (VG) forecasting. This piece updates a report issued by the National
Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in 2012; it also covers several additional topics including
sub-hourly scheduling, grid operator training, and forecasting for distributed solar resources. As
in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes
independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities that rely on VG
forecasting.

VG forecasting is widely considered to be a key means of integrating wind and solar power
efficiently and reliably as these resources become increasingly common. Indeed, in a recent
report, grid operators from 18 countries identified wind forecasting as “the most important
prerequisite for successfully integrating wind energy into power systems” (Jones 2011, p. xxiv).

VG forecasting remains a relatively new phenomenon in the West. Ten of the 13 OEs
interviewed for this year’s report began using VG forecasts in 2007 or later. Each currently uses
a wind forecast. In anticipation of rapid growth in solar generation, five OEs have recently begun
working on in-house solar forecasts and two are utilizing outside sources. This report serves as a
means for these companies to compare VG forecasting practices, lessons learned, and priorities
with one another, as well as to share their experiences with state and federal regulators, market
participants, national laboratories, and non-governmental organizations.

Costs and Benefits – The costs of wind forecasts have dropped dramatically since the 2012
report. This decline coincides with a shift toward testing or utilizing multiple vendors. Many of
the OEs interviewed no longer view VG forecasting in a cost-benefit framework, regarding it
instead as a necessity for maintaining electric reliability and scheduling resources effectively.

Cost Assignment – Only a few respondents partly or fully recover forecasting costs from
variable generators. Many simply absorb the costs, possibly viewing them as relatively minor.
However, the reportedly high cost of individual solar plant forecasts prompted at least one OE to
turn to in-house forecasting.

Forecast Accuracy – Wind forecasting accuracy continues to improve incrementally.
Participating OEs credit these gains to improved forecasting techniques and models, seasoned
vendors, and growing portfolio size, all of which smooth the variability in VG output. Solar
forecasting is at an early stage in the West, but at least one company is beginning to track solar
forecasting accuracy.

Forecasting Uses – Nearly all interviewees use their wind forecasts for day-ahead unit
commitment—a striking change since the 2012 report. This was consistent despite the entities’
diversity in size, proportion of renewables, and average monthly load. Intra-day unit
commitment and reserves planning are the next most common uses, followed by a diverse array
of uses often unique to a given entity.

Data Collection – Participating OEs have made few expansions, if any, to the types of
meteorological data (wind speed, direction, temperature, pressure, humidity) and turbine status
data they require of wind generators. However, two OEs have recently taken steps to increase the
speed of data transmission from their generators, and reported that this change has greatly
enhanced the value of their wind forecasts. Because solar forecasting is at an early stage, only a
small number of responding OEs have solar data requirements in place.

Curtailments and Outages – Most interviewees factor turbine availability and/or outages into
their forecasts so that they represent what generators are capable of producing, even if VG output
is curtailed. Less than half of the OEs describe using curtailment information after the fact for
calibrating forecast models and calculating performance metrics.
Probabilistic Forecasting – Participants report that both ensemble forecasts and confidence
intervals (CIs) are commonly used to address forecasting uncertainty. Yet many system operators
reportedly ignore the CIs provided to them, choosing instead to use a single likeliest production
value.

Distributed Solar Production – Distributed generation (DG) is commonly “invisible” to system
operators, particularly for behind-the-meter resources connected at customer sites, which are
netted out with the customer load. These resources cannot usually receive dispatch commands.
Six of the OEs interviewed view the development of methods to forecast distributed solar
production as an imminent need, and two see it as an eventual need. No consensus on how to
forecast distributed solar generation has emerged.

Control Room Integration – Displays of VG forecasts in OE control rooms are nearly
universal. Typically, these are automated feeds, sometimes provided by third-party forecasters.
These displays are often accompanied by real-time weather or real-time generation data. Half the
organizations interviewed are integrating forecast values directly into operations tools such as an
Energy Management System (EMS).

Staff Familiarity – Though formal training is rare, staff members often coach their colleagues
on an as-needed basis. System operators have developed a sense of familiarity with VG forecasts
at most of the organizations interviewed. Four OEs also employ meteorologists to aid in
interpreting VG forecasts.

Advice and Lessons Learned – Respondents’ advice for other utilities includes starting sooner
rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic
expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.
Potential Regional Initiatives - Several of the OEs interviewed are against the creation of
formal standards or guidelines for forecasting, suggesting that these would stifle innovation and
impose “one-size-fits-all” methods upon unique situations. Others suggested that guidelines for
data collection or a guideline determining resource adequacy for reserves would be helpful. A
small number of interviewees advocated for further research and development (R&D)
investments in forecasting.

Forecast Sharing - OEs were also split on the idea of sharing forecasts with other OEs. Some
suggest that sharing forecasts and data would help improve VG forecasting. Others contend that sharing forecasts will not have much value unless reserves can be traded through such
mechanisms as Energy Imbalance Markets (EIMs). Still others view VG forecasts as a source of
competitive advantage for recipients and would oppose sharing them.

Sub-Hourly Dispatch - The changes documented since the 2012 report have been remarkable.
Yet, it is also worth noting one practice that has not changed. Outside of the West, regional
transmission organizations (RTOs) are now dispatching wind in five-minute markets as opposed
to hourly schedules in the West, except for the Alberta Electric System Operator and the
California Independent System Operator. The RTOs outside the West use equally fast forecast
updates, taking advantage of the fact that forecasts are more accurate in short-term increments.
Industry initiatives such as the EIM encompassing the California Independent System Operator,
Nevada Power and PacifiCorp, as well as regulatory initiatives such as Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission Order No. 764, may accelerate the adoption of this practice in the West.

“…[The Illinois Power Agency] will buy up to $30 million worth of solar power and pump it into the energy mix for electricity customers under legislation [just] signed into law…[The new law] establishes a competitive process to purchase the energy from new or existing solar installations, which could include rooftop solar panels that homeowners can use to sell any leftover power back to the electricity grid…The Illinois Power Agency was set up in 2007 to develop plans for buying renewable energy for utilities to feed into the grid. The money for the solar power purchases comes from the agency’s Renewable Energy Resources Fund, which is made up of clean energy fees paid by power suppliers…”click here for more

“The shift to renewable energy sources in Michigan — particularly wind — has picked up in the past few years…One reason: [Wind energy is] about half as expensive to produce than utility companies initially expected, down to as little as $50 a megawatt hour last year from more than $100 a megawatt hour in 2009, according to the Michigan Public Service Commission...Michigan is home to about 120 companies that supply wind components and employ 4,000…A [2008] state law that requires 10% of electricity produced come from renewable sources by the end of next year has increased demand and helped propel the construction of wind farms…[Since 2008], utilities have invested more than $2.2 billion in renewable technology…There are now more than 20 wind farms in Michigan that are operational and in development…Michigan’s growing wind business has meant falling prices for residential consumers…This year, largely because of the lower cost of wind, DTE has reduced its [renewables] surcharge from $3 per meter a month to 43 cents, and Consumers Energy is eliminating its surcharge altogether…”click here for more

“…Successful strategies to manage [the increasing two-way complexity of distributed energy resources (DER)] are being deployed today all over the world. One such strategy is a virtual power plant (VPP)…[which combines] a rich diversity of independent resources into a network via sophisticated planning, scheduling, and bidding of DER-based services…Several recent trends are creating an environment conducive to VPPs…However, challenges to commercial rollouts of VPPs remain, including the lack of reliance upon dynamic, real-time pricing and consumer pushback against the smart grid…Navigant Research forecasts that total annual VPP vendor revenue will grow from $1.1 billion in 2014 to $5.3 billion in 2023 under a base scenario…”click here for more

Poll – Voters Won’t Go For Climate Change Deniers

“Only 38% of voters will vote for a candidate who denies human-caused climate change…I don’t know if I should be happy it’s less than 50% or distraught that it’s almost 40%.” From David Pakman Show via YouTube
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Friday, June 27, 2014

WHAT THE LITTLE PTEROPOD TEACHES

“…[Tiny seagoing snails called pteropods] make up the base of many oceanic food webs. Without them, everything in the food chain above them suffers…Unfortunately, [t]heir shells are literally dissolving, killing them off in astounding numbers…The cause of this die-off, ultimately, is believed to be the rising levels of carbon dioxide…that turns the oceans more acidic, slowly disintegrating [shellfish like the pteropods]…[A]bout 250 million years ago, the oceans endured similar changes…Unfortunately, this past acidification event coincided with the Permian-Triassic extinction…[that] wiped out more than 90% of marine species. The planet took millions of years to recover, the history of life was forever altered…[and now] the Earth is changing…in a way very similar to what caused the greatest extinction in history…[Though it] may seem like a slow progression, it's a mere instant in Earth's history, and the environmental changes we're causing far outstrip the ability of life to adapt...[L]et's not overlook or dismiss these initial symptoms…We're growing ever closer to pushing our home over the edge, perhaps into another mass extinction…”click here for more

$1.7BIL OCEAN WIND BUY-IN FOR UK GREEN BANK

“Britain's government-funded bank investing in green energy projects will launch a 1 billion pound ($1.7 billion) fund dedicated to buying stakes in operational offshore wind projects in the country…The Green Investment Bank (GIB) participation is a boost to Britain's offshore wind sector which has seen a series of project cancellations over the past few months…Britain already has 3.6 gigawatts of installed offshore wind capacity but is counting on the development of other wind farms to help it cut carbon emissions in the electricity sector…The Bank hopes the fund will help attract new investors to the offshore wind market such as sovereign wealth funds and pension funds…The GIB is already a major investor in offshore wind…”click here for more

DONKEY-TOP SOLAR IN TURKEY

“Herdsmen in Turkey are going to the fields with their sheep and goats armed with 21st century technology…[D]onkeys are now carrying solar panels…The panel generates enough electricity so the herdsman can use a computer to get the latest information on the weather…The electricity is also used for light. The herdsmen said the light is especially helpful during the birthing season…The solar power pack can also charge cell phones. The solar project was developed by a Turkish energy company and the Provincial Sheep and Goat Breeders Association…The company designed a special "plug and play" solar pack [at donkey-carrying weight]…”click here for more

IT’S FINAL: GE BUYS FRANCE’S ALSTOM

General Electric Co. finally completed its long pending $17 billion purchase of Alstom’s gas turbine operations and formation of joint ventures with Alstom’s steam turbine, renewable energy and electrical-transmission businesses…The two factors allowing GE to win its bidding war with Siemens AG for Alstom were (1) GE turning over its rail-signaling operations to Alstom for $825 million, and (2) convincing shareholder Bouygues SA to sell as much as 20% of its ownership in Alstom to the French government…French law permits state intervention to block acquisitions of companies deemed to be of national importance and the Hollande government was blocking completion of the transaction until it was assured of 20% voting rights and the appointment of two government-named board members…This is GE’s biggest acquisition ever…Alstom built the French electricity grid and makes its high-speed trains and the turbines that generate most of its electricity… click here for more

Thursday, June 26, 2014

THE PAULSON PIECE, THE BRIEF

"Few were more intimately involved with manging the financial crisis than Hank Paulson, President George W. Bush's treasury secretary…In a new op-ed in the New York Times, Paulson says he's seeing the same stresses that nearly brought down the banking system, and which led to the Great Recession, are playing out in climate…[2008’s excess debt is 2013’s excess greenhouse gas emissions; flawed incentives to borrow for financed homes are today’s dependence on carbon-based fuels; the 2008 financial experts nobody listened to are 2013 climate scientists; and 2008’s risk to the global economy is today’s looming global climate disaster]...Paulson calls for the creation of a carbon tax, which he…[calls a ‘conservative’ solution that] allows market forces to put a price on allocating resources toward or away from addressing the problem…Paulson acknowledges that the U.S. alone can't address the situation — but that no one else will be moved to do so if it doesn't take the lead. And he takes his own Republican Party to task for not taking the crisis seriously, saying that the short term economic consequences will be swamped by the long-term ones that would come from doing nothing…”click here for more

THE PAULSON PIECE, PART 1

“THERE is a time for weighing evidence and a time for acting. And if
there’s one thing I’ve learned throughout my work in finance, government
and conservation, it is to act before problems become too big to manage.
For too many years, we failed to rein in the excesses building up in the
nation’s financial markets. When the credit bubble burst in 2008, the
damage was devastating. Millions suffered. Many still do.

“We’re making the same mistake today with climate change. We’re
staring down a climate bubble that poses enormous risks to both our
environment and economy. The warning signs are clear and growing more
urgent as the risks go unchecked.

“This is a crisis we can’t afford to ignore. I feel as if I’m watching as we
fly in slow motion on a collision course toward a giant mountain. We can
see the crash coming, and yet we’re sitting on our hands rather than
altering course.

“We need to act now, even though there is much disagreement,
including from members of my own Republican Party, on how to address
this issue while remaining economically competitive. They’re right to
consider the economic implications. But we must not lose sight of the
profound economic risks of doing nothing…”

THE PAULSON PIECE, PART 2

“The solution can be a fundamentally conservative one that will
empower the marketplace to find the most efficient response. We can do this by putting a price on emissions of carbon dioxide — a carbon tax. Few
in the United States now pay to emit this potent greenhouse gas into the
atmosphere we all share. Putting a price on emissions will create incentives
to develop new, cleaner energy technologies.

“It’s true that the United States can’t solve this problem alone. But
we’re not going to be able to persuade other big carbon polluters to take
the urgent action that’s needed if we’re not doing everything we can do to
slow our carbon emissions and mitigate our risks.

“I was secretary of the Treasury when the credit bubble burst, so I
think it’s fair to say that I know a little bit about risk, assessing outcomes
and problem-solving. Looking back at the dark days of the financial crisis
in 2008, it is easy to see the similarities between the financial crisis and the
climate challenge we now face.

“We are building up excesses (debt in 2008, greenhouse gas emissions
that are trapping heat now). Our government policies are flawed
(incentivizing us to borrow too much to finance homes then, and
encouraging the overuse of carbon-based fuels now). Our experts
(financial experts then, climate scientists now) try to understand what they
see and to model possible futures. And the outsize risks have the potential
to be tremendously damaging (to a globalized economy then, and the
global climate now).

“Back then, we narrowly avoided an economic catastrophe at the last
minute by rescuing a collapsing financial system through government
action. But climate change is a more intractable problem. The carbon
dioxide we’re sending into the atmosphere remains there for centuries,
heating up the planet.

“That means the decisions we’re making today — to continue along a
path that’s almost entirely carbon-dependent — are locking us in for long- term consequences that we will not be able change but only adapt to, at
enormous cost. To protect New York City from rising seas and storm surges
is expected to cost at least $20 billion initially, and eventually far more.
And that’s just one coastal city…”

THE PAULSON PIECE, PART 3

“…When I worry
about risks, I worry about the biggest ones, particularly those that are
difficult to predict — the ones I call small but deep holes. While odds are
you will avoid them, if you do fall in one, it’s a long way down and nearly
impossible to claw your way out.

“Scientists have identified a number of these holes — potential
thresholds that, once crossed, could cause sweeping, irreversible changes.
They don’t know exactly when we would reach them. But they know we
should do everything we can to avoid them.

“Already, observations are catching up with years of scientific models,
and the trends are not in our favor…[In] May, two separate studies discovered that one of the
biggest thresholds has already been reached. The West Antarctic ice sheet
has begun to melt, a process that scientists estimate may take centuries but
that could eventually raise sea levels by as much as 14 feet. Now that this
process has begun, there is nothing we can do to undo the underlying
dynamics, which scientists say are “baked in.” And 10 years from now, will
other thresholds be crossed that scientists are only now contemplating?
It is true that there is uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of
these risks and many others. But those who claim the science is unsettled
or action is too costly are simply trying to ignore the problem. We must see
the bigger picture.

“The nature of a crisis is its unpredictability. And as we all witnessed
during the financial crisis, a chain reaction of cascading failures ensued
from one intertwined part of the system to the next. It’s easy to see a single part in motion. It’s not so easy to calculate the resulting domino effect.

“That sort of contagion nearly took down the global financial system.

“With that experience indelibly affecting my perspective, viewing
climate change in terms of risk assessment and risk management makes
clear to me that taking a cautiously conservative stance — that is, waiting
for more information before acting — is actually taking a very radical risk.
We’ll never know enough to resolve all of the uncertainties. But we know
enough to recognize that we must act now…”

THE PAULSON PIECE, SOLUTIONS

“…I’m a businessman, not a climatologist. But I’ve spent a considerable
amount of time with climate scientists and economists who have devoted
their careers to this issue. There is virtually no debate among them that the
planet is warming and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely
responsible.

“Farseeing business leaders are already involved in this issue…We need to craft national policy that uses market forces to provide
incentives for the technological advances required to address climate
change. As I’ve said, we can do this by placing a tax on carbon dioxide
emissions. Many respected economists, of all ideological persuasions,
support this approach. We can debate the appropriate pricing and policy
design and how to use the money generated. But a price on carbon would
change the behavior of both individuals and businesses. At the same time,
all fossil fuel — and renewable energy — subsidies should be phased out.

“Some members of my political party worry that pricing carbon is a “big government” intervention. In fact, it will reduce the role of
government, which, on our present course, increasingly will be called on to
help communities and regions affected by climate-related disasters like
floods, drought-related crop failures and extreme weather like tornadoes,
hurricanes and other violent storms. We’ll all be paying those costs. Not
once, but many times over.

“This is already happening, with taxpayer dollars rebuilding homes
damaged by Hurricane Sandy and the deadly Oklahoma tornadoes. This is
a proper role of government. But our failure to act on the underlying
problem is deeply misguided, financially and logically.

“In a future with more severe storms, deeper droughts, longer fire
seasons and rising seas that imperil coastal cities, public funding to pay for
adaptations and disaster relief will add significantly to our fiscal deficit
and threaten our long-term economic security. So it is perverse that those
who want limited government and rail against bailouts would put the
economy at risk by ignoring climate change.

“This is short-termism…We would be fools to wait…When you run a company, you want to hand it off in better shape than
you found it. In the same way, just as we shouldn’t leave our children or
grandchildren with mountains of national debt and unsustainable
entitlement programs, we shouldn’t leave them with the economic and
environmental costs of climate change. Republicans must not shrink from
this issue. Risk management is a conservative principle, as is preserving
our natural environment for future generations. We are, after all, the party
of Teddy Roosevelt.

“THIS problem can’t be solved without strong leadership from the
developing world. The key is cooperation between the United States and
China — the two biggest economies, the two biggest emitters of carbon
dioxide and the two biggest consumers of energy.

“When it comes to developing new technologies, no country can innovate like America. And no country can test new technologies and roll
them out at scale quicker than China.
The two nations must come together on climate…

“A tax on carbon emissions will unleash a wave of innovation to
develop technologies, lower the costs of clean energy and create jobs as we
and other nations develop new energy products and infrastructure. This
would strengthen national security by reducing the world’s dependence on
governments like Russia and Iran.

“Climate change is the challenge of our time. Each of us must recognize
that the risks are personal. We’ve seen and felt the costs of
underestimating the financial bubble. Let’s not ignore the climate bubble.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) concludes that climate
change is unequivocal, and that human activities,
particularly emissions of carbon dioxide, are very likely
to be the dominant cause. Changes are observed in all
geographical regions: the atmosphere and oceans are
warming, the extent and volume of snow and ice are
diminishing, sea levels are rising and weather patterns
are changing.

Projections:

Computer models of the climate used by the IPCC indicate
that changes will continue under a range of possible
greenhouse gas emission scenarios over the 21st century.
If emissions continue to rise at the current rate, impacts
by the end of this century are projected to include a
global average temperature 2.6–4.8 degrees Celsius (°C)
higher than present, and sea levels 0.45–0.82 metres
higher than present.

To prevent the most severe impacts of climate change,
parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) agreed a target of keeping the rise in average global
temperature since pre-industrial times below 2°C, and to
consider lowering the target to 1.5°C in the near future.
The first instalment of AR5 in 2013 (Working Group I on
the physical science basis of climate change) concluded
that by 2011, we had already emitted about two-thirds of
the maximum cumulative amount of carbon dioxide that
we can emit if we are to have a better than two-thirds chance
of meeting the 2°C target.

Even if emissions are stopped immediately, temperatures
will remain elevated for centuries due to the effect of
greenhouse gases from past human emissions already
present in the atmosphere. Limiting temperature rise will
require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse
gas emissions.

energy demand is increasing globally, causing greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions from the energy sector also to increase. The trend is set to
continue, driven primarily by economic growth and the rising population. In
recent years the long-term trend of gradual decarbonisation of energy has
reversed due to an increase in coal burning.

Climate change presents increasing challenges for energy production
and transmission. A progressive temperature increase, an increasing
number and severity of extreme weather events and changing
precipitation patterns will affect energy production and delivery. The
supply of fossil fuels, and thermal and hydropower generation and
transmission, will also be affected. However, adaptation options exist.
significant cuts in GHG emissions from energy can be achieved
through a variety of measures. These include cutting emissions from
fossil fuel extraction and conversion, switching to lower-carbon fuels (for
example from coal to gas), improving energy efficiency in transmission
and distribution, increasing use of renewable and nuclear generation,
introduction of carbon capture and storage (CCS), and reducing final
energy demand.

strong global political action on climate change would have major
implications for the energy sector. Stabilisation of emissions at levels
compatible with the internationally agreed 2°C temperature target will
mean a fundamental transformation of the energy industry worldwide in
the next few decades, on a pathway to complete decarbonisation.
incentivising investment in low-carbon technologies will be a key
challenge for governments and regulators to achieve carbon reduction
targets. Reducing GHG emissions also brings important co-benefits such
as improved health and employment, but supply-side mitigation measures
also carry risks.

The energy industry is both a major contributor to
climate change and a sector that climate change will
disrupt. Over the coming decades, the energy sector
will be affected by global warming on multiple levels,
and by policy responses to climate change. The stakes
are high: without mitigation policies, the global
average temperature is likely to rise by 2.6–4.8°C by
2100 from pre-industrial levels.

In the absence of strong mitigation policies, economic
growth and the rising global population will continue
to drive energy demand upwards, and hence GHG
emissions will also rise. Climate change itself may
also increase energy use due to greater demand
for cooling.

The means and infrastructure to produce and
transport energy will be adversely impacted by climate
change. The oil and gas industry is likely to suffer
from increased disruption and production shutdowns
due to extreme weather events affecting both offshore
and onshore facilities. Power plants, especially those
in coastal areas, will be affected by extreme weather
events and rising sea levels. Critical energy transport
infrastructure is at risk, with oil and gas pipelines in
coastal areas affected by rising sea levels and those
in cold climates affected by thawing permafrost.

Electricity grids will be impacted by storms, and
the rise in global temperature may affect electricity
generation including thermal and hydroelectric
stations in some locations. Weather changes may also
affect bioenergy crops. In general, the industry has
options for adapting to climatic changes, but costs are
likely to be incurred.

The energy sector is the largest contributor to global
GHG emissions. In 2010, 35% of direct GHG emissions
came from energy production. In recent years the
long-term trend of gradual decarbonisation of
energy has reversed. From 2000 to 2010, the growth
in energy sector emissions outpaced the growth in
overall emissions by around 1% per year. This was due
to the increasing share of coal in the energy mix.
From annual emissions of 30 gigatonnes (Gt) of
carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2010, projections indicate that
in the absence of policies to constrain emissions, the
emissions associated with fossil fuel use, including
the energy supply sector but also energy use in
transport, industry and buildings would contribute
55–70 GtCO2
per year by 2050. To reduce emissions to
levels commensurate with the internationally agreed
goal of keeping the temperature increase since pre-industrial times below 2°C, the share of low-carbon
electricity generation by 2050 will need to triple or
quadruple. Use of fossil fuels without carbon capture
would virtually disappear by 2100 at the latest. The
energy sector would be completely decarbonised,
and it is likely that technologies able to withdraw
CO2
from the atmosphere would need to be deployed.
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage is one
such technology (BECCS).

Replacing existing coal-fired heat and/or power plants
by highly efficient natural gas combined cycle (NGCC)
power plants or combined heat and power (CHP)
plants can reduce near-term emissions (provided
that fugitive methane release is controlled) and be
a ‘bridging technology’ to a low-carbon economy.
Increased use of CHP plants can reduce emissions.
CCS, nuclear power and renewables provide low-carbon electricity, while increasing energy efficiency
and reducing final energy demand will reduce the
amount of supply-side mitigation needed. In 2012,
more than half of the net investment in the electricity
sector was in low-carbon technologies.

Nevertheless, a variety of barriers and risks to
accelerated investment exist, including cost.
Additional supply-side investments required to
meet the 2°C target are estimated at USD 190–900
billion per year on average up to 2050. Much of
this investment would yield co-benefits such as
reduced air and water pollution, and increased local
employment. But supply side mitigation typically
also carries risks.

Three climate-change phenomena will have a particular impact on the energy
sector: global warming, changing regional weather patterns (including
hydrological patterns) and an increase in extreme weather events. Not only will
these phenomena affect energy demand, in some regions they will also affect
the entire spectrum of energy production and transmission. While most climate
change impacts are likely to be negative, there could be some positive impacts
such as lower energy demand in cold climates.

Rising temperatures coupled with
a growing world population and
economic growth will drive an
increase in overall demand for
energy. Rising income levels in
poorer countries in warm climates
are likely to lead to increased
use of air-conditioning. Global
energy demand for residential air-conditioning in summer is projected
to increase rapidly from nearly 300
TWh in 2000, to about 4000 TWh
in 2050. Much of this growth is due
to increasing income in emerging
market countries, but some is due
to climate change. Colder, richer
countries will see energy demand
for heating fall, but could still see
overall energy use increase.

Although thermal power plants
(currently providing about 80%
of global electricity) are designed
to operate under diverse climatic
conditions, they will be affected by
the decreasing efficiency of thermal
conversion as a result of rising
ambient temperatures. Also, in
many regions, decreasing volumes
of water available for cooling and
increasing water temperatures could
lead to reduced power operations,
operation at reduced capacity or
even temporary shutdowns.

Extreme weather events pose a
major threat to all power plants
but particularly to nuclear
plants, where they could disrupt
the functioning of critical
equipment and processes that are
indispensable to safe operation
including reactor vessels, cooling
equipment, control instruments and
back-up generators.

Changing regional weather patterns
are likely to affect the hydrologic
cycle that underpins hydropower
generation. In some regions, a
decline in rainfall levels and a
rise in temperature, leading to
increased water loss, could result
in reduced or more intermittent
ability to generate electricity.

Although projections contain large
uncertainties, hydropower capacity
in the Zambezi river basin in Africa
may fall by as much as 10% by 2030,
and 35% by 2050. On the other
hand, hydropower capacity in Asia
could increase.

Changing weather patterns and
extreme weather events present
challenges to solar and wind
energy. An anticipated increase
in cloudiness in some regions
would affect solar technologies,
while an increase in the number
and severity of storms could
damage equipment. Global
warming and changing weather
patterns are likely to adversely
impact agricultural yields,
with a knock-on effect on the
production and availability
of biomass for energy
generation. While there might
be some benefits in temperate
climates, the reduction in yields
in tropical areas is more likely
than not to exceed 5% by 2050.
In some rainy regions, open pits
in the coal industry are likely
to be impacted by increasing
rainfall leading to floods
and landslides.

Climate and weather related
hazards in the oil and gas
sector include tropical cyclones
with potentially severe effects
on offshore platforms and
onshore infrastructure, leading
to more frequent production
interruptions. However, the
decline in Arctic sea ice could
lead to the opening up of new
areas for oil and gas exploration,
potentially increasing global oil
and gas reserves.

Energy transmission
infrastructure, such as
pipelines and power lines,
is also likely to be affected
by higher temperatures and
extreme weather events.
Pipelines are at risk from sea-level rise in coastal regions,
thawing permafrost in cold
regions, floods and landslides
triggered by heavy rainfall, and
bushfires caused by heat waves
or extreme temperatures in
hot regions. Extreme weather
events, especially strong
wind, are projected to affect
power lines.

There are various options by which the energy
sector can improve its resilience to climate change.

A number of technological improvements are available for thermal power
plants which, if implemented, will bring efficiency gains that more than
compensate for losses due to higher ambient temperatures. Preventative
and protective measures for nuclear power plants include technical and
engineering solutions and adjusting operation to extreme conditions,
including reducing capacity or shutting down plants. Weather resistance
of solar technologies and wind power turbines continues to increase.

Coal mining companies can improve drainage and run-off for on-site
coal storage, as well as implementing changes in coal handling due to the
increased moisture content of coal. Pipeline operators may be forced to
follow new land zoning codes and to implement risk-based design and
construction standards for new pipelines, and structural upgrades to
existing infrastructure.

Technical standards for power transmission lines are likely to be amended
to force grid operators to implement appropriate adaptation measures,
including in some cases re-routing lines away from high-risk areas.

Authorities can plan for evolving demand needs for heating and cooling
by assessing the impact on the fuel mix. Heating often involves direct
burning of fossil fuels, whereas cooling is generally electrically powered.
More demand for cooling and less for heating will create a downward
pressure on direct fossil fuel use, but an upward pressure on demand
for electricity.

As the sector producing the largest share of GHG emissions, the energy sector would be
substantially affected by policies aimed at meeting the internationally agreed 2°C target
for global warming. A number of mature options exist that can, if scaled up, result in
substantial mitigation of the sector’s GHG emissions. However, the scale of the challenge
is considerable. Pathways compatible with the 2°C target typically envisage achieving
virtual decarbonisation of the energy supply at some point between 2050 and the end of
the century. It is likely that ‘negative emissions’ – technologies that absorb CO2
from the
atmosphere – will also be needed.

Options for mitigation include:

• Cutting emissions from fossil fuel extraction and conversion

• Switching to lower-carbon fuels, for example from coal to gas

• Improving energy efficiency in transmission and distribution

• Increasing use of renewable energy technologies

• Increasing use of nuclear energy

• Introduction of carbon capture and storage (CCS), and an extension into CCS plants
that use bioenergy crops (BECCS) as an approach to achieving ‘negative emissions’

Climate change will affect the entire energy sector, through impacts and
through policy. While the cost of mitigating emissions across all sectors
could reduce annual consumption growth by 0.04–0.14%, the scale of
the low-carbon transition and the opportunities for investment are likely
to be larger in the energy sector than in others. Additional investments
required in the energy system in order to keep the temperature increase
since pre-industrial times below 2°C are estimated to be USD 190–900
billion per year on the supply-side alone, although this investment
could realise important co-benefits for economies as a whole. However,
infrastructure tends to be used for at least 30 years once built; so decisions
made in the next couple of decades will be crucial in deciding whether the
energy sector leads the way towards or away from a 2°C future.

Scenarios project that a fundamental transformation will be necessary
if governments are to meet the globally agreed 2°C target. Generally,
these scenarios envisage three parallel processes: decarbonisation of the
electricity supply, expansion of the electricity supply into areas such as
home heating and transport that are currently fuelled in other ways, and
reduction in final energy demand. Much of the incremental investment
will be in developing countries where demand is growing at a faster rate
than in developed countries. The additional capital would be partly offset
by the lower operating costs of many low-GHG energy supply sources.
For government and regulators, a key challenge will be to ensure a price
of carbon that incentivises extra investment in low-carbon technologies,
continued investment in research and development, and an attractive
fiscal and regulatory framework.

QUICK NEWS, June 26: TEXAS PROVES MORE WIRES MEANS MORE NEW ENERGY; DUKE’S BIGGEST SUN IN THE EAST FOR GWU, AU; WHAT TO WATCH IN FUEL CELLS

Texas wind power reached a new instantaneous peak output of 10,296 megawatts on March 26, 29% of total electricity, after setting new records twice in the previous week and, according to grid operator Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), more new records are expected as Texas’s 12,000-plus megawatt wind capacity continues to grow…Texas wind’s record-setting performance is partially due to the completion of the Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) transmission expansion specifically designed to deliver West Texas and Panhandle winds to ERCOT load centers in Dallas, Ft. Worth, Austin, and San Antonio and to reduce wind curtailments…Curtailment dropped steadily as the 3,500 mile CREZ transmission system build out advanced and wind-related negative electricity pricing decreased as the new transmission reduced oversupply problems by taking wind energy-generated electricity to a wider range of demand areas…

Negative pricing occurs when there is more electricity supply than demand and wind generators become willing to accept below zero prices for their output because they have no fuel costs and can get a $0.023 per kilowatt-hour production tax credit for the electricity the grid takes…A perhaps more important factor in Texas wind’s new records is that wind’s vital Production Tax Credit was restructured last year to allow eligibility to projects that commenced construction during 2013 instead of only to those that went online during the year, resulting in more than 7,000 megawatts of in-construction capacity that began coming online this year... click here for more

Duke Energy Renewables has contracted to supply solar from its Capital Partners Solar Project solar power plant to be built in North Carolina to George Washington University, American University and the George Washington University Hospital…Duke will break ground on the 52 megawatt project at the first of three sites this summer, build in three stages, bring the first 20 megawatts online this year and add the final 32 megawatts to be fully operational in 2015…The 20 year contract between Duke and the universities is the biggest solar power purchase agreement (PPA) with a non-utility off-taker in the U.S. and the PV project is the biggest east of the Mississippi River, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association…Duke won the PPAs in a competitive bidding process that included 28 wind and solar developers…University officials expect the move to solar to save “millions of dollars” as the cost of conventional generation rises… click here for more

“…Over the past 18 months, there has been a real divergence in the fortunes of various fuel cell sectors. The stationary sector has seen 2 years of strong growth while some sectors, such as portable, have continued to struggle…[or] been in a holding pattern…[T]he fuel cell vehicle (FCV) market is poised for the launch of commercial vehicles, spurring a flurry of investment in hydrogen infrastructure…[The key trends are]:

1-Fuel cells back on the radar of the skeptical U.S. media

2-Stationary sector continues to lead the fuel cell industry

3-Investors cautiously coming off the fence on fuel cells

4-FCVs continue to be compared to plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs)

5-Hydrogen infrastructure stakeholders must prove they can build stations

6-[Combined Heat and Power (CHP)] is on path to surpass prime power stationary fuel cells

TODAY’S STUDY: WHY THOSE WIND TURBINES AREN’T TURNING

Curtailment is a reduction in the output of a generator from what it could otherwise produce
given available resources, typically on an involuntary basis. Curtailment of generation has been a
normal occurrence since the beginning of the electric power industry. However, owners of wind
and solar generation, which have no fuel costs, are concerned about the impacts of curtailment
on project economics. Operator-induced curtailment typically occurs because of transmission
congestion or lack of transmission access, but it can occur for a variety of other reasons, such as
excess generation during low load periods, voltage, or interconnection issues. Market-based
protocols that dispatch generation based on economics can also result in wind and solar energy
plants generating less than what they could potentially produce.

This report examines U.S. curtailment practices regarding wind and solar generation, with a
particular emphasis on utilities in the western states. The information presented here is based on
a series of interviews conducted with utilities, system operators, wind energy developers, and
other stakeholders. The report provides case studies of curtailment experience and examines the
reasons for curtailment, procedures, compensation, and practices that can minimize curtailment.

• In the largest markets for wind power, the amount of curtailment appears to be declining even as the
amount of wind power on the system increases. Curtailment levels have generally been 4% or less of
wind generation in regions where curtailment has occurred. Many utilities in the western states report
negligible levels of curtailment. The most common reasons for curtailment are insufficient
transmission and local congestion and excessive supply during low load periods.

• Definitions of curtailment and data availability vary. Understanding curtailment levels can be
complicated by relatively new market-based protocols or programs that dispatch wind down or limit
wind generation to schedules and the lack of uniformity in data collection.

• Compensation and contract terms are changing as curtailment becomes of greater concern to solar
and wind plant owners. Increasingly there are negotiated contract provisions addressing use of
curtailment hours and there is greater explicit sharing of risk between the generator and off-taker.

• Automation can reduce curtailment levels. Manual curtailment processes can extend curtailment
periods because of the time needed for implementation and hesitancy to release units from
curtailment orders.

• Market solutions that base dispatch levels on economics offer the advantages of creating
transparency and automation in curtailment procedures, which apply equally to all generators.

• Curtailed wind and solar resources may provide ancillary services to aid in system operations.

• A variety of solutions is being used to reduce curtailments: transmission expansion and
interconnection upgrades; operational changes such as forecasting and increased automation of
signaling; and better management of reserves and generation.

Curtailment of variable renewable generation, particularly wind and solar energy, is becoming
more widespread as wind and solar energy development expands across the country and
penetrations increase. Curtailment can affect the revenue of wind and solar energy projects.

These impacts are specific to each balancing area due to differences in grid characteristics,
operating practices, and other factors such as weather.

In this paper, we define curtailment as a reduction in the output of a generator from what it could
otherwise produce given available resources (e.g., wind or sunlight), typically on an involuntary
basis. Curtailments can result when operators or utilities command wind and solar generators to
reduce output to minimize transmission congestion or otherwise manage the system or achieve
the optimal mix of resources. Curtailment of wind and solar resources typically occurs because
of transmission congestion or lack of transmission access, but it can also occur for reasons such
as excess generation during low load periods that could cause baseload generators to reach
minimum generation thresholds, because of voltage or interconnection issues, or to maintain
frequency requirements, particularly for small, isolated grids. Curtailment is one among many
tools to maintain system energy balance, which can also include grid capacity, hydropower and
thermal generation, demand response, storage, and institutional changes. Deciding which method
to use is primarily a matter of economics and operational practice.

“Curtailment” today does not necessarily mean what it did in the early 2000s. Two sea changes
in the electric sector have shaped curtailment practices since that time: the utility-scale
deployment of wind power, which has no fuel cost, and the evolution of wholesale power
markets. These simultaneous changes have led to new operational challenges but have also
expanded the array of market-based tools for addressing them.

Practices vary significantly by region and market design. In places with centrally-organized
wholesale power markets and experience with wind power, manual wind energy curtailment
processes are increasingly being replaced by transparent offer-based market mechanisms that
base dispatch on economics. Market protocols that dispatch generation based on economics can
also result in renewable energy plants generating less than what they could potentially produce
with available wind or sunlight. This is often referred to by grid operators by other terms, such as
“downward dispatch.” In places served primarily by vertically integrated utilities, power
purchase agreements (PPAs) between the utility and the wind developer increasingly contain
financial provisions for curtailment contingencies.

This report delineates several types of practices under the broad rubric of curtailment done for
wind or solar generation. Some reductions in output are determined by how a wind operator
values dispatch versus non-dispatch. Other curtailments of wind are determined by the grid
operator in response to potential reliability events. Still other curtailments result from
overdevelopment of wind power in transmission-constrained areas. Responses to all types of
curtailment largely reflect the operating context, including whether the wind power is part of an
centrally-organized wholesale market, or whether it is in a balancing authority area operated by a
vertically integrated utility.

Dispatch below maximum output (curtailment) can be more of an issue for wind and solar
generators than it is for fossil generation units because of differences in their cost structures. The
economics of wind and solar generation depend on the ability to generate electricity whenever
there is sufficient sunlight or wind to power their facilities. Because wind and solar generators
have substantial capital costs but no fuel costs (i.e., minimal variable costs), maximizing output
improves their ability to recover capital costs. In contrast, fossil generators have higher variable
costs, such as fuel costs. Avoiding these costs can, depending on the economics of a specific
generator, to some degree reduce the financial impact of curtailment, especially if the generator's
capital costs are included in a utility's rate base.

Ascertaining the level of curtailment of wind and solar generation and its impacts is challenging.
Often system operators or utilities do not track it or make data publicly available, and there are
differences in terminology as well. Manual curtailment processes for wind have been replaced by
economic dispatch protocols in a number of regions, and under the new protocols, dispatch
below maximum output is typically not referred to as curtailment. In addition, energy lost due to
line outages, and limits placed on deviations from schedule can all reduce wind generator’s
production; some operators call these actions curtailment while others do not.

This report examines curtailment practices for wind and solar energy in the United States, with a
particular emphasis on utilities in the western states. Much of the experience documented in this
report pertains to curtailment of wind power, which has reached higher penetrations of bulk
system power, although solar curtailment is included where information is available.

This report builds on earlier reviews of domestic curtailment experience by Rogers et al. (2010) and Fink et
al. (2009) and a recent review of international practices by Lew et al. (2013). The information
presented here is based on a series of interviews conducted with utilities, system operators, wind
energy developers and owners, and non-governmental organizations as well as other available
data sources. This review was conducted to better understand the diversity of practices in place
and the magnitude of curtailment that has been occurring. The report provides case studies of
curtailment experience and examines the reasons for curtailment, curtailment procedures,
compensation, and practices that can minimize curtailment of wind and solar.

Curtailment levels, where curtailment has occurred, are often in the range of 1% to 4% of wind
generation, but higher levels have been reported by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas
(ERCOT) in past years, as can be seen in Figure 1.

However, the levels of wind curtailment
experienced to date in the United States differ substantially by region and utility service territory,
as discussed in Section 3. In many regions, curtailment is very low and not even tracked.
Table 1 provides a summary of curtailment levels and causes for all of the utilities and grid
operators interviewed for this study. Further discussion of the reason for curtailments is included
in Section 3. Table A-1 in Appendix A summarizes experiences with wind and solar energy
curtailment from all of the utilities and grid operators interviewed, including utilities that
reported relatively low levels of curtailment…

Conclusions

While a greater number of regions are experiencing some form of curtailment of wind and solar
resources, the relative magnitude of curtailment appears to be declining in the largest markets for
wind power even as the amount of wind power on the system increases. New transmission
capacity and better operating practices, such as greater automation and the use of forecasting and
other operational practices, are now resolving challenges for grid operators, often circumventing
the need for curtailment. As penetrations of wind and solar energy increase, curtailment practices
and the use of strategies to mitigate the potential for curtailment may become increasingly
important and may impact wind and solar energy project economics. Nevertheless, as wind and
solar energy penetrations increase, there may come a time when changes in operating protocols
would not lead to reduced curtailments, and rather that curtailment volumes could rise as a
fraction of total wind and solar generation.

Curtailment levels have generally been 4% or less of wind energy generation in regions where
curtailment has occurred. A notable exception is ERCOT, where curtailment levels reached 17%
in one year, primarily because wind generation came online ahead of transmission capacity.

These levels have since receded to less than 2%. Many utilities in the western states report
negligible levels of curtailment. The most common reasons for curtailment are insufficient
transmission and local congestion, and excessive supply during low load periods. One challenge
to determining curtailment levels is that data are not uniformly collected.

Definitions of curtailment vary. Understanding curtailment levels can be complicated by
relatively newly implemented market-based protocols or programs that limit wind generation to
schedules. Now that economic dispatch is being used in several areas, wind generators can be
dispatched down based on market prices, but this reduction of output is not characterized as
curtailment. In some cases, wind generators are not able to exceed scheduled levels—a process
that is referred to in the BPA balancing area as limiting output rather than curtailment.

Curtailment order varies and is often based on plant economics or ability to alleviate local
congestion. For curtailments that are needed to address balancing or system operations, the most
expensive generators are often curtailed first. For wind projects, one consideration is whether the
project utilizes the federal PTC or ITC. Generators reliant on the PTC, which is provided based
on project output, face greater financial impacts from curtailment (the value of the PTC as well
as the energy) than wind generators that received the upfront ITC. To address local congestion
issues, curtailment is often applied equitably across generators that are most able to alleviate
congestion. Hawaii provides preference to projects based on the order that they were installed
(i.e., curtailing the most recently installed resources first), which limits the financial impacts and
risks of curtailment for existing renewable energy facilities.

Compensation and contract terms are changing for curtailment. Contracts between generators
and off-takers have in some cases included provisions whereby the off-taker will compensate for
curtailment for reasons such as congestion, scheduled maintenance, and operator errors, but
typically not for curtailment ordered by other entities. However, contracts are increasingly
reflecting a negotiated number of annual hours in which curtailments are not compensated,
despite the cause, and there is greater sharing of risk between the generator and off-taker. In
some cases, when new curtailment procedures are adopted, the need to renegotiate contract language has posed implementation challenges. In wholesale power markets, the grid operator
sometimes compensates if it calls for units to deviate from initial dispatch orders.

Automation can reduce curtailment levels. Manual curtailment processes for wind have been
found to extend curtailment periods because of the time required to implement curtailment and
hesitancy to release units from curtailment orders. Automatic communication procedures can
speed the implementation of curtailment orders and reduce overall curtailment time.

Market solutions that base dispatch levels on economics offer the advantages of creating
transparency and efficiency in curtailment procedures, which apply equally to all generation
sources. Programs like the MISO DIR utilize economic dispatch to determine which units will
generate at a given time. During periods of oversupply, the use of negative pricing to determine
dispatch order can eliminate the need for manual curtailments. Some wind developers have
expressed a preference of the market-based dispatch framework because it reduces market
distortions and allows wind generators to participate alongside conventional generators.

The use
of market-based approaches with their associated automation can also minimize curtailment by
improving operational efficiency and reducing the burden on grid operators of implementing
manual processes.

Curtailed wind resources can provide ancillary services to aide in system operations. PSCO uses
curtailed wind resources to provide both up and down regulation reserves for the balancing area.
Wind turbines can provide quick response to signals, which can be valuable for the system.
MISO assessed this and found it was economically viable only 2% of the time, however. ERCOT
requires all wind turbines that can be retrofitted with governor response to do so in order to
provide primary frequency response if they are curtailed.

Transmission expansion and interconnection upgrades can be one of the most direct ways to
reduce curtailments. ERCOT’s expansion of transmission in recent years through CREZ has
alleviated wind generator curtailments. A key challenge is that renewable energy projects can be
built much more rapidly than transmission lines. The CREZ program identified the need for
transmission to particular regions to facilitate wind energy expansion. SPP is building new
transmission capacity that is expected to alleviate current curtailment levels, while MISO is
pursuing multi-value transmission projects to move wind to load centers and more robust parts of
the grid.

Forecasting can decrease uncertainty associated with wind and solar resources, reducing the
need for curtailments due to unexpected changes. Improved forecasting can enable utilities or
grid operators to turn down conventional resources when sufficient wind generation is predicted
and to reduce curtailment from oversupply. Improved forecasting can also reduce curtailments
related to ramping. Wind forecasting can provide generators better information and enable them
to participate more fully in the day-ahead market. Improved data on wind profiles may help grid
operators provide more precise not-to-exceed instructions, enabling increased wind generation
output. Grid operators could also improve visibility of distributed solar, which appears to grid
operators as reduced load, to help understand system changes that can influence unit
commitment and balancing to minimize curtailments.

Firming resources can decrease curtailments and increase financial certainty for generators, but
they are not necessarily the most cost-effective system-wide solution. Iberdrola in BPA has found
it more cost-effective to balance its own resources than it is to pay integration charges and be
exposed to uncompensated curtailments under DSO 216. Nevertheless, developer-specific
balancing, through options such as storage and natural gas, may likely be less cost-effective at a
system-wide level than it would be for the utility or grid operator to adopt operating practices
that minimize the need to curtail, such as dynamic reserves, negative pricing, and
improved forecasting.

QUICK NEWS, 6-24: YET MORE NEW ENERGY IN 2013; WHERE TO FIND NEW ENERGY; NEXT-GEN BATTERY BIZ TO QUINTUPLE

“Renewable power has cut for itself a bigger share of the world’s energy demand pie, but coal, which remained the fastest growing fossil fuel, and oil, also saw demand grow in 2013, [according to theBP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014]…Coal consumption increased by 3% in 2013, below its yearly average of 3.9% but enough to put coal’s share of world energy consumption at 30%, its highest since 1970…Demand from renewable energy sources, including wind and solar, rose to a record 2.7% of global energy consumption, up from 0.8% a decade ago…Solar power generation rose 33%...[to] 0.5%...Wind power generation grew more slowly, or 18.5%...The U.S. oil boom continued — last year, the U.S. had the world’s largest increase in oil production for the second straight year, up by 1.1 million barrels a day…Global oil consumption rose 1.4% in 2013, just above its historical average…”click here for more

“When the U.S. Energy Information Administration launched its new U.S. Energy Mapping System last fall and upgraded it for use on mobile devices in early June, it powered a system allowing anyone to visualize some of the reams of data the EIA compiles on all things energy-related in the country…[F]our cool things the new Energy Mapping System can show you about where renewable energy is being produced and where it has the potential to be generated in the future…[are] 1. Wind Turbines Are Being Built In Places You May Not Expect…2. The Cloudier Northeast Has Its Share Of Solar Power…3. Biomass Power Production Is All Over, But Mainly In The East And Midwest…4. The U.S. Has Great Geothermal Potential; Most Of It Is Untapped…”click here for more

"The advanced battery industry is growing at an extremely aggressive pace, with lithium ion (Li-ion) leading the charge. However, Li-ion is not the perfect battery; it has supply constraints, manufacturing cost reduction obstacles, and safety issues...Although energy density has been the most sought-after goal for new chemistries – and most show improvements in energy density – it is not the only favorable quality for a next-generation battery. Cost and safety have become important concerns for most battery buyers. By offering cheaper price points, next-generation batteries can enable even more applications for batteries. In addition, some applications (e.g., electric vehicle and grid storage batteries) require higher safety standards and value inherently safe chemistries. Navigant Research forecasts that global next-generation advanced battery revenue will grow from $182.3 million in 2014 to $9.4 billion in 2023…”click here for more

Plug-in Hybrids: The Cars that will ReCharge America by Sherry Boschert: "Smart companies plan ahead and try to be the first to adopt new technology that will give them a competitive advantage. That’s what Toyota and Honda did with hybrids, and now they’re sitting pretty. Whichever company is first to bring a good plug-in hybrid to market will not only change their fortune but change the world."

Oil On The Brain; Adventures from the Pump to the Pipeline by Lisa Margonelli: "Spills are one of the costs of oil consumption that don’t appear at the pump. [Oil consultant Dagmar Schmidt Erkin]’s data shows that 120 million gallons of oil were spilled in inland waters between 1985 and 2003. From that she calculates that between 1980 and 2003, pipelines spilled 27 gallons of oil for every billion “ton miles” of oil they transported, while barges and tankers spilled around 15 gallons and trucks spilled 37 gallons. (A ton of oil is 294 gallons. If you ship a ton of oil for one mile you have one ton mile.) Right now the United States ships about 900 billion ton miles of oil and oil products per year."

NOTEWORTHY IN THE MEDIA:
NewEnergyNews would welcome any media-saavy volunteer who would like to re-develop this section of the page. Announcements and reviews of film, television, radio and music related to energy and environmental issues are welcome.

Review of OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, The American Decades by Mark S. Friedman

OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, The American Decades, the second volume of Herman K. Trabish’s retelling of oil’s history in fiction, picks up where the first book in the series, OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, The Story of Our Addiction, left off. The new book is an engrossing, informative and entertaining tale of the Roaring 20s, World War II and the Cold War. You don’t have to know anything about the first historical fiction’s adventures set between the Civil War, when oil became a major commodity, and World War I, when it became a vital commodity, to enjoy this new chronicle of the U.S. emergence as a world superpower and a world oil power.

As the new book opens, Lefash, a minor character in the first book, witnesses the role Big Oil played in designing the post-Great War world at the Paris Peace Conference of 1919. Unjustly implicated in a murder perpetrated by Big Oil agents, LeFash takes the name Livingstone and flees to the U.S. to clear himself. Livingstone’s quest leads him through Babe Ruth’s New York City and Al Capone’s Chicago into oil boom Oklahoma. Stymied by oil and circumstance, Livingstone marries, has a son and eventually, surprisingly, resolves his grievances with the murderer and with oil.

In the new novel’s second episode the oil-and-auto-industry dynasty from the first book re-emerges in the charismatic person of Victoria Wade Bridger, “the woman everybody loved.” Victoria meets Saudi dynasty founder Ibn Saud, spies for the State Department in the Vichy embassy in Washington, D.C., and – for profound and moving personal reasons – accepts a mission into the heart of Nazi-occupied Eastern Europe. Underlying all Victoria’s travels is the struggle between the allies and axis for control of the crucial oil resources that drove World War II.

As the Cold War begins, the novel’s third episode recounts the historic 1951 moment when Britain’s MI-6 handed off its operations in Iran to the CIA, marking the end to Britain’s dark manipulations and the beginning of the same work by the CIA. But in Trabish’s telling, the covert overthrow of Mossadeq in favor of the ill-fated Shah becomes a compelling romance and a melodramatic homage to the iconic “Casablanca” of Bogart and Bergman.

Monty Livingstone, veteran of an oil field youth, European WWII combat and a star-crossed post-war Berlin affair with a Russian female soldier, comes to 1951 Iran working for a U.S. oil company. He re-encounters his lost Russian love, now a Soviet agent helping prop up Mossadeq and extend Mother Russia’s Iranian oil ambitions. The reunited lovers are caught in a web of political, religious and Cold War forces until oil and power merge to restore the Shah to his future fate. The romance ends satisfyingly, America and the Soviet Union are the only forces left on the world stage and ambiguity is resolved with the answer so many of Trabish’s characters ultimately turn to: Oil.

Commenting on a recent National Petroleum Council report calling for government subsidies of the fossil fuels industries, a distinguished scholar said, “It appears that the whole report buys these dubious arguments that the consumer of energy is somehow stupid about energy…” Trabish’s great and important accomplishment is that you cannot read his emotionally engaging and informative tall tales and remain that stupid energy consumer. With our world rushing headlong toward Peak Oil and epic climate change, the OIL IN THEIR BLOOD series is a timely service as well as a consummate literary performance.

Review of OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, The Story of Our Addiction by Mark S. Friedman

"...ours is a culture of energy illiterates." (Paul Roberts, THE END OF OIL)

OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, a superb new historical fiction by Herman K. Trabish, addresses our energy illiteracy by putting the development of our addiction into a story about real people, giving readers a chance to think about how our addiction happened. Trabish's style is fine, straightforward storytelling and he tells his stories through his characters.

The book is the answer an oil family's matriarch gives to an interviewer who asks her to pass judgment on the industry. Like history itself, it is easier to tell stories about the oil industry than to judge it. She and Trabish let readers come to their own conclusions.

She begins by telling the story of her parents in post-Civil War western Pennsylvania, when oil became big business. This part of the story is like a John Ford western and its characters are classic American melodramatic heroes, heroines and villains.

In Part II, the matriarch tells the tragic story of the second generation and reveals how she came to be part of the tales. We see oil become an international commodity, traded on Wall Street and sought from London to Baku to Mesopotamia to Borneo. A baseball subplot compares the growth of the oil business to the growth of baseball, a fascinating reflection of our current president's personal career.

There is an unforgettable image near the center of the story: International oil entrepreneurs talk on a Baku street. This is Trabish at his best, portraying good men doing bad and bad men doing good, all laying plans for wealth and power in the muddy, oily alley of a tiny ancient town in the middle of everywhere. Because Part I was about triumphant American heroes, the tragedy here is entirely unexpected, despite Trabish's repeated allusions to other stories (Casey At The Bat, Hamlet) that do not end well.

In the final section, World War I looms. Baseball takes a back seat to early auto racing and oil-fueled modernity explodes. Love struggles with lust. A cavalry troop collides with an army truck. Here, Trabish has more than tragedy in mind. His lonely, confused young protagonist moves through the horrible destruction of the Romanian oilfields only to suffer worse and worse horrors, until--unexpectedly--he finds something, something a reviewer cannot reveal. Finally, the question of oil must be settled, so the oil industry comes back into the story in a way that is beyond good and bad, beyond melodrama and tragedy.

Along the way, Trabish gives readers a greater awareness of oil and how we became addicted to it. Awareness, Paul Roberts said in THE END OF OIL, "...may be the first tentative step toward building a more sustainable energy economy. Or it may simply mean that when our energy system does begin to fail, and we begin to lose everything that energy once supplied, we won't be so surprised."

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