UFC on FOX 4 preview: 205-pound runoff not desirable, but inevitable due to Jones

There’s the dubious title eliminator between Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (20-6 MMA, 4-4 UFC) and Brandon Vera (12-5 MMA, 8-5 UFC), the amended title runoff including Lyoto Machida (17-3 MMA, 9-3 UFC) vs. Ryan Bader (14-2 MMA, 7-2 UFC), and the very good chance that in fewer than two years, the UFC could be recycling opponents he previously decimated.

Here’s why Jones stuck us here: The usual pace of a UFC champion is two fights a year. But not so for the 25-year-old Jones, who might not even be in his physical prime and is raring to stay active at a time in which his flow is unbroken.

In a little more than 12 months, he’s fought five times, won the title, and defended the belt on three occasions. In the process, he’s taken out Bader, Rua, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Machida, Rashad Evans. And Vera? He him took out 11 months prior to his record-breaking run.

Jones might have scratched his head at UFC president Dana White’s initial proposal to give the winner of Rua vs. Vera a title shot, as most MMA observers and media did, but he can’t be too surprised. There’s just not much beyond his next challenge: Dan Henderson, who is the last marquee opponent he hasn’t tooled.

There is promising new blood on the horizon, of course. But Alexander Gustafsson wants more experience, and Glover Teixeira is barely known (though that could change if he beats “Rampage” at UFC 153). James Te Huna isn’t ready just yet.

This is what happened to middleweight champ Anderson Silva and, and to a lesser extent, welterweight champ Georges St-Pierre. As their dominance became apparent, the UFC was forced to sell a few fights that weren’t readily sellable, such as Thales Leites and Dan Hardy. They had to take the best of what was available.

Because Twitter is a greater force than ever for steering the UFC’s matchmaking course, White got the message and nobly made an unattractive situation a little less so. Giving four fighters instead of two the chance to wow the audience now gives him a better chance to capitalize on fan interest in lining up the next contender, even if all of them will have asterisks beside their names in a potential rematch with Jones.

And, of course, the promotion can always change course if someone comes out of the woodwork or injuries set back the title schedule.

There’s also the chance that Henderson wins, and all this discomfort will be dispensable.

Until then, oddsmakers give Rua and Machida the best chance of winning on Saturday night. Both are about 3-to-1 favorites despite multiple setbacks in recent years. It might be fair to give a significant edge to Rua, given that Vera very recently got a pink slip, returned on a technicality when opponent Thiago Silva submitted a fake urine sample, and then eked out a decision win over Eliot Marshall (who himself got a pink slip afterward).

But it might not for Bader. After a two-fight skid to Jones and Tito Ortiz – his only pro losses – he rebounded with wins over Jason Brilz and Jackson. He’s younger, and there’s something to be said for a young fighter with momentum.

Despite his repeated setbacks, Vera could come out and surprise everyone against Rua. That would make for a very promotable Cinderella story.

In any event, one of the four light-heavyweight headliners will, for now, take the No. 1 title contender’s position. It may not be the most logical competition in the UFC’s history, but it’s the one we have for now.

All your fault Mr. Jones.

Other main-card bouts

Joe Lauzon (21-7 MMA, 8-4 UFC) vs. Jamie Varner (20-6-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC): Varner pulled off a major upset when he stopped the red-hot Edson Barboza with strikes in a short-notice fight at UFC 146. He steps up again on less than a full training camp to face fellow lightweight Lauzon, who’s looking for redemption following a first-round KO loss to Anthony Pettis. Is short notice the key to Varner’s success? It could be. He seemed to lose steam soon after winning the lightweight title in the now-defunct WEC, though he also lost to top-tier talent. Having less than a full training camp may be way he gets out of his head and performs at his best. Maybe the retirement he contemplated was the best thing for getting back his stride. In any event, he meets the always-tough Lauzon, who himself was on a run before Pettis put a stop to it. Few fighters are as good at capitalizing on the canvas, and Varner will need to keep this on the feet, where Lauzon is less strong. The winner could take a big step up in the division.

Mike Swick (14-4 MMA, 9-3 UFC) vs. DaMarques Johnson (16-10 MMA, 4-4 UFC): Two years ago, this matchup would have been labeled a virtual gimme for Swick, who has fought some of the best talent in the world at middleweight and welterweight. But because of his absence due to multiple health issues, Johnson, who’s alternately brilliant and very average, has a good chance of pulling out the win. Swick spoke openly about modifying his training just so as to avoid an injury in training camp, and that kind of caution might translate to a fight against an aggressive opponent such as Johnson. It’s a toss-up. Johnson is good enough to catch Swick with a stiff punch or pound out a TKO on the mat, but it’s a matter of whether Swick’s talent is lying dormant or if he’s lost the edge.

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