According to an article under www.marssociety.de JAXA is thinking about a lunar base publicly. It should be ready in 2030. The first landing of japanese astronauts is going to take place in 2020 to start the construction and building of the station - it will take ten years to get it ready.

It doesn't take that much to recognize that there are 14 years until 2020 and 24 years until 2030 - sufficient time to do manned flights and get to the Moon. Mike Griffin already mentioned that NASA/US might not manage to establish a lunar base wthout international partners. ...

I understand how NASA might want international partners on ISS or the Cassini Titan mission to save money and man hours

But they have been given billions for the Vision for Exploration and plenty of time to build a spacecraft. So if NASA needs international help ( from Europe or Japan or Russia or China!!! ) to go back to the Moon then there is no hope for NASA.

NASA didn't need foreign help in 1969, why do they need to outsource to the Japanese ?

things have changed very significantly since 1969 - within nearly 40 years.

In particular today's budget problems didn't exist in 1969 to that extreme degree, the public interest and fascination was very much larger and the US were the motor of the economies of the whole free world. This all is no longer the case since years or even one or two decades.

To establish, maintain and keep working a lunar base requires much more money and tax money that the Apollo-flights and even the ISS which already is an international project. The ISS requires $ 100 bio - and NASA said that the return to the Moon including the lunar station will require $ 104 bio. As the years go by the number of $ 104 bio can be suspected to increase.

So things are much more difficult and complex financially and economically now than they were in 1969. Also there are competitors now - the Russians, ESA + EADS, China and the forming close Europe-Russia-Japan-cooperation. These mean that NASA/US no longer have a monopoly.

I think it unlikely that JAXA will be able to build a moonbase by 2030. Although 24 years is sufficient time for this to happen it will require a major change in their current thinking and finances. They need to commit much more and make a real effort. Wanting is not having or for that matter being able to, as has already been said they need to to make their minds up as to what they want and implement a plan to achieve it.

Japan would like to be seen internationally as a rival to China in human spaceflight but that is not the case and is unlikely to happen given China's growing economy which will feed its space industry. Japan will not want to try to compete with China and be seen to fail, it wont pick a competition it cant win. It is much more likely to colaborate on an international partnership with other space agencies.

Japan would need to have a major investment in space to achieve a moonbase by 2030 and although this has happened in the past for the electronics and motor industry I think the fact that there has not been demonstrated economic advantages in doing this will prevent it from happening. There was already money to be made in cars and electronics when Japan concentrated on these areas, the same is not true of space. A projected market is not as attractive as an existing market and it is this I think that will delay Japan's investment in space.

_________________A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

An exciting new era of globally-coordinated space exploration is foreseen by the fourteen space organisations who met here in Kyoto, Japan from 7th to 9th March 2007. Following a space exploration conference held in Washington in April 2006 hosted by NASA, the fourteen organisations created an informal 'Global Exploration Strategy' team. This group has met through workshops and teleconferences in order to prepare a long term perspective for space exploration.

The team is focused mainly on the robotic and human exploration of solar system destinations - especially the Moon, Mars and near-Earth asteroids. At Kyoto about fifty representatives of the fourteen organisations met for an intensive series of rewarding discussions and made significant progress.

There was already money to be made in cars and electronics when Japan concentrated on these areas, the same is not true of space. A projected market is not as attractive as an existing market and it is this I think that will delay Japan's investment in space.

Yes the Japanese are not typically innovative. They will wait until someone else has found a successful industry model or proofed a technology and then swoop in and out produce/compete into the market. Lol!

They do see the prestige to be had in being a "player" in the moon project, even if its not as a soloist. When the financial realities of a moon base sets in on the politicians (who have to turn around and explain them to their constituents), they will probably team up with others.

I for one hope that we do not repeat the 60s. We are still living with the consequences of that "Get there first the quickest way you can" competitive environment.