Post-Tropical Cyclone ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion (Text)

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180236
TCDEP1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015
Organized deep convection has been absent from the center for about
12 hours now, and what little convection that does exist is
occurring in a narrow band in the northwestern quadrant more than
75 nmi from the center. Therefore, Enrique no longer meets the
criteria of a tropical cyclone, and the system is being designated
as a remnant low and advisories are being discontinued at this time.
The intensity is being maintained at 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT
surface wind data. Unfavorable thermodynamic and oceanic conditions
should inhibit the re-development of persistent deep convection, so
gradual weakening and spin down of the large vortex is expected
over the next several days. The NHC official forecast calls for
dissipation by 120 hours, similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
global models.
The initial motion is now 225/02 kt. The preponderance of the NHC
model guidance continues to indicate that post-tropical Enrique
should make a slow and tight counter-clockwise loop during the next
48 hours or so, followed by a northwestward motion. The official
track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous
advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCE.
For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 20.3N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 18/1200Z 20.0N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/0000Z 19.8N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1200Z 20.1N 137.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0000Z 20.6N 136.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z 21.9N 137.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0000Z 23.4N 138.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart