As the alert says, one of the certificates you are using with AD FS will expire soon. This might be either the token signing/decrypting certificates or the communication ones. Review the following article for the procedure of changing them:

It is both the Token Decrypting and the Token Signing. So how do I create new certs? I see how to replace them but I did not build this system so I do not know how to create new ones. Is this performed on a server within my network? They appear to be internal created certs since the Service Communications cert appears to be created by a third party provider.