A first look at Siena’s chances for first place

Let me begin with a disclaimer: Right now there are far too many (and I mean far, far too many) scenarios to consider to post a comprehensive report of Siena’s chances of winning the MAAC regular-season title.

So I’ll begin with a basic briefing.

First, here is the obvious: If Siena wins its final two games and Loyola as well as Rider lose once, Siena is the regular-season champ. The Saints would be 13-5 and at least a game ahead of Rider, Loyola and Niagara, the three teams with which it is currently tied.

Yeah, I know, that was obvious.

So here’s where it gets interesting:

The bottom line is, Siena loses more tiebreakers than it wins. If it’s a three-way tie between Siena, Loyola and Rider, Siena loses. If it’s a head-to-head between Siena and Loyola, Siena loses. And if it’s a head-to-head between Siena and Rider, the outcome depends on the order of finish behind those two teams.

So that makes Loyola the team to watch. Because if the Greyhounds win their final two games, Siena can’t finish first and claim the guaranteed National Invitation Tournament bid.

Loyola hosts Canisius on Thursday and then plays at Marist on Sunday in a game that begins at 4 p.m. — two hours after Siena’s game against Saint Peter’s tips off. So, if the Saints win their final two games, they still likely won’t know their fate until later Sunday evening.

Siena would be 2-2 vs. Niagara/Loyola and Rider would be 2-2 against Niagara/Loyola. Siena then went 3-1 against Marist (2-0) /Fairfield (1-1) while Rider would have went 2-2 against Marist (1-1) /Fairfield (1-1)

So to make it as simple as possible…Siena needs to win their two games and have Loyola lose at Marist ..can’t imagine Niagara not beating Canisius at home.

We need an ex Siena point guard to win a game on their senior day for the sake of his old team. Go Matt Brady…. and Go Marist! I feel good about them winning on Sunday and I feel good about Siena taking care of business tonight in front of a good crowd on Tay’s night. The game that scares me though is the trap game against St. Peters on Sunday. Go Saints! We will be their supporting you guys.

On a side note, I think we should all give Tay Fisher a very long extended standing ovation tonight when they announce him on senior night. He was the lone guy from the original very talented class of 2008 players; especially guards(Jack McClinton-Miami; Kojo Mensah-Duquense) who stayed with the program when Rob Lanier was fired and Fran McCaffery was hired.

Through it all; Tay Fisher has handled everything from first the losing and “slow down” Lanier basketball style; to then the coaching change; to then starting and playing all the time without consistently winning; to then not starting but winning more often; and to then sometimes playing quite a bit and then at other times not playing much at all but with great team succeess; all done in four years without incident on or off the court with the utmost class and loyalty to the Siena program and family.

Tay Fisher is an ambassador(sp?) to the game of college basketball and all that it stands for as a whole and is mature well beyond his years. I am sure some local employer will find a spot for Tay to excel in if he does not go into coaching himself. If he does go into coaching, I truly could see him going far up the ladder in a very quick time period there as well.

Thanks Tay for all you represent in being another quality young man coming out of the Siena Basketball program. Light those Purple Eagles up! This is your game tonight!