Abbas Tries to Outflank Hamas With Renewed UN Statehood Bid

Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, left, and Ban Ki-moon, secretary general of the United Nations pose for photos at UN headquarters on Nov. 28. Photographer:John Moore/Getty Images

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Mahmoud Abbas will push again for
Palestinian statehood at the United Nations today, trying to
seize the momentum from his Hamas rivals who say they’ve proved
rocket attacks win more ground from Israel than diplomacy.

A year after U.S. pressure killed his bid in the policy-making Security Council to become the UN’s 194th member, Abbas
is taking the lesser step of seeking acceptance of the state of
Palestine by the UN General Assembly. The move would upgrade the
status of the Palestinian Liberation Organization, headed by
Abbas, without making the new state a full UN member. Israel and
the U.S. have threatened to cut money flows in response.

Today’s step “is indeed a positive, constructive effort
aimed at preserving the two-state solution,” Abbas, who is in
New York, said in a speech read by Palestinian Authority Foreign
Minister Riad Malki to members of the UN Security Council. “Our
preference remains full membership in the United Nations, which
is our legitimate, legal and historic right.”

The vote comes a week after the cease-fire that halted
eight days of bloodshed between Israel and Hamas, which is
considered a terrorist group by the U.S. and the European Union.
Hamas leaders, who seized control of the Gaza Strip in 2007 from
Abbas’s Palestinian Authority, portrayed the outcome as a
victory that will ultimately force Israel to lift its blockade
of the seaside territory, home to 1.6 million Palestinians. In
contrast, they say, Abbas has achieved little with his
diplomatic campaign.

‘Political Survival’

“For Abbas, this means political survival,” said Mkhaimar
Abusada, a political scientist at Al-Azhar University in Gaza.
After eight years of steering the Palestinian nationalist
movement since the death of Yasser Arafat, “he needs something
to show.”

Returning to the UN is an expensive gamble for Abbas.
Congress has threatened to cut off $500 million of annual aid if
the General Assembly resolution is passed. Israel plans to
withhold 800 million shekels ($210 million) of tax revenue it
would normally transfer to the Palestinians, and use it to pay
their debt to Israel Electric Corp.

“The only way to achieve peace is through agreements that
are reached by the parties directly; through valid negotiations
between themselves, and not through UN resolutions that
completely ignore Israel’s vital security and national
interests,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said
today, according to an e-mailed statement. “And because this
resolution is so one-sided, it doesn’t advance peace, it pushes
it backwards.”

Broad Support

Unlike in the 15-member Security Council, the U.S. carries
no veto in the General Assembly and the measure to give the PLO
a status on par with the Vatican has broad support.

France, Spain and Russia have announced they favor the
upgrade. All three voted last year for the Palestinians’
successful bid to become full members of Unesco, the UN’s
cultural agency. The U.K. said it’s ready to back Abbas’s bid if
he gives assurances including a commitment to resume
unconditional peace talks with Israel, and will otherwise
abstain as it did at Unesco.

India and Pakistan today said they support the Palestinian
effort. Australia will abstain from the vote, Prime Minister
Julia Gillard said this week.

The U.S. cut off its contributions to Unesco after the
Palestinian vote. Susan Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the UN, has
said repeatedly that “unilateral actions” such as the
statehood bid would derail efforts to restart direct peace talks
between Israel and the Palestinians.

IMF Warning

Negotiations broke down two years ago when Netanyahu
refused to extend a partial 10-month construction freeze in West
Bank settlements and the Palestinians said they wouldn’t resume
talks as long as building continued.

The Palestinian financial system has been prepared to
withstand punitive actions by Israel and the U.S., Palestinian
Monetary Authority Governor Jihad Al Wazir said in an interview
earlier this month. He said such responses won’t last long and
he expects wealthy Arab states to make up the losses.

The International Monetary Fund warned in September that
the $10 billion Palestinian economy is facing “serious risks”
as foreign aid declines, and urged the government to find other
ways to cover its financing gap. The deficit this year is
projected at $1.3 billion, compared with a planned $950 million,
Al Wazir said.

The economy of the West Bank and Gaza probably grew about 5
percent last year, down from an average of 9 percent in the
previous three years, and unemployment rose to 19 percent in the
first half of 2012, according to the IMF.

War Crimes

Success at the General Assembly may open the door for
Palestinians to join other UN agencies, including the
International Criminal Court, where they could ask for Israel to
be tried for war crimes.

In Gaza, Hamas leaders voiced tepid support for the UN
effort while maintaining that last week’s confrontation, in
which 175 Palestinians and six Israelis lost their lives, did
more to advance the cause of statehood. Hamas and other
Palestinian factions launched about 1,400 rockets, missiles and
mortars at Israel, some reaching as far as Tel Aviv and
Jerusalem.

“We don’t oppose his going back to the UN,” Ahmed Yousef,
a senior aide to Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, said in a
telephone interview from Gaza City. “We just don’t think it’s
going to do much for the political aspirations of the
Palestinian people.”