An 11-year detailed look at RPI and how it relates to NCAA Regional host selections - HINT: It matters a lot

Matt Stevens

May 15, 2013 5:20:09 PM

STARKVILLE - In his media teleconference Wednesday morning Mississippi State University coach John Cohen made a comment that was very telling in regards to how he approaches his team's postseason resume with less than one week until conference tournament play.

"If RPI matters, and I think it does, I think we should get strong consideration in the areas in the postseason," Cohen said when asked about his team's strength of schedule and league schedule.

MSU (38-15, 14-13 in Southeastern Conference) enters the final weekend ranked No. 10 in the latest ratings percentage index as they host the University of South Carolina (38-14, 16-10) for a three-game series at Dudy Noble Field starting Thursday night at 6:30 p.m.

Well...clearly this poses the obvious question: Does the RPI matter historically to the NCAA Baseball selection committee and if it does, by how much.

After comprehensive research, The Dispatch MSU Sports Blog has come up with two answers to those questions: Yes it does and by a lot.

By looking at the historical RPI numbers from the last 11 seasons on the night before the NCAA tournament selections were revealed, it can be determined that the RPI value heading into these selections is arguably the biggest factor to getting a host spot in a NCAA Regional.

Here are the conclusions to The Dispatch MSU Sports Blog research as follows:

- Only 33 teams (of 176) inside the Top 16 of the RPI weren't given hosting spots and only 10 of those schools were inside the Top 10. That's on average three schools a year or 18.75 percent of teams inside the Top 16 of the RPI get snubbed.

- Only three schools inside the Top 10 of RPI were snubbed on NCAA Regional hosting bids since 2006.

- Only one national seed was snubbed of a NCAA Regional hosting spot and that Arizona State (No. 7 seed and No. 3 in RPI) in 2004 as the Sun Devils were sent to California State University at Fullerton.

- The lowest RPI rating to be given a hosting spot was No. 43 (Notre Dame in 2002 after they won 50 games and were the Big East Conference champions)

- Only four schools from No. 30 and lower in the RPI have been selected to host - Notre Dame in 2002, Southern California in 2002 (31), Oregon State in 2006 (30) and Michigan in 2008 (35) but the Wolverines were a 2-seed in Ann Arbor with Arizona (No. 10 in RPI) as the top seed.

- Not a single school in the RPI Top 16 was excluded from hosting last season. Arizona State was No. 16 but due to NCAA recruiting violations were banned from participating in the 2012 NCAA tournament.

- Of the 33 schools in Top 16 of the RPI in the last 11 years to be snubbed a hosting berth, only eight of those schools were in the Southeastern Conference. It's happened twice to the University of Florida (2004, 2008), Vanderbilt University (2004, 2010) and the University of Arkansas (2009, 2011). The only other two times it occurred to SEC schools was the University of Alabama in 2010 and a University of Georgia team in 2011 with a 31-30 overall record.

HERE'S THE DATA:

2002

NATIONAL SEEDS

1. Florida State

2. Clemson

3. Alabama

4. Rice

5. Texas

6. South Carolina

7. Wake Forest

8. Stanford

HOSTS (RPI number)

Clemson #1

Florida State #2

Wake Forest #3

South Carolina #4

Georgia Tech #5

LSU #7

Rice #8

Florida #9

Texas #10

Alabama #11

Stanford #12

Nebraska #14

Wichita State #17

Southern California #31

Notre Dame #43 *(50-18, 18-8 in Big East - won Big East championship)*

SNUBS

Houston #6 (1-seed in Tempe)

North Carolina #13 (2-seed in Columbia, SC)

UL-Lafayette #15 (2-seed in Baton Rouge)

Richmond #16 (2-seed in Winston-Salem)

2003

NATIONAL SEEDS

1. Florida State

2. LSU

3. Georgia Tech

4. Auburn

5. Rice

6. Stanford

7. Cal State Fullerton

8. Miami (FL)

HOSTS (RPI number)

Florida State #1

Miami (FL) #2

Auburn #3

LSU #4

Georgia Tech #5

Stanford #6

California St. Fullerton #7

Rice #8

Texas #10

North Carolina State #11 (Fleming Stadium in Wilson, NC b/c of N.C. State stadium being renovated)

Long Beach State #12

Texas A&M #14

Mississippi State #16

Nebraska #17

Arizona State #20

Southern Mississippi #21

SNUBS (RPI number)

Baylor #9 (1-seed in Hattiesburg)

Clemson #13 (2-seed in Auburn)

North Carolina #15 (2-seed in Starkville)

2004

NATIONAL SEEDS

1. Texas

2. South Carolina

3. Miami (FL)

4. Georgia Tech

5. Stanford

6. Rice

7. Arizona State

8. Arkansas

HOSTS (RPI number)

Miami (FL) #1

Texas #2

South Carolina #4

LSU #5

Stanford #7

Florida State #8

Mississippi #9

Georgia Tech #10

Georgia #11

Arkansas #12

Rice #14

East Carolina #15

Virginia #16

Notre Dame #19

California St. Fullerton #20

Oklahoma #25

SNUBS (RPI number)

Arizona State #3 (1-seed in Fullerton)

Florida #6 (1-seed in Oklahoma City)

Vanderbilt #13 (2-seed in Charlottesville)

2005

NATIONAL SEEDS

1. Tulane

2. Georgia Tech

3. Nebraska

4. Baylor

5. Mississippi

6. Cal State Fullerton

7. Florida

8. Oregon State

HOSTS (RPI number)

Tulane #1

Georgia Tech #2

Texas #3

Mississippi #4

Baylor #5

Clemson #6

Miami (FL) #7

Florida #9

California St. Fullerton #11

Oregon State #13

LSU #15

Long Beach State #17

Nebraska #17

Florida State #23

Arizona State #27

Tennessee #29

SNUBS (RPI number)

North Carolina #8 (2-seed in Gainesville)

College of Charleston #10 (2-seed in Clemson)

North Carolina State #12 (2-seed in Lincoln)

Coastal Carolina #14 (1-seed in Tempe)

Southern California #16 (2-seed in Long Beach)

2006

NATIONAL SEEDS

1. Clemson

2. Rice

3. Texas

4. Alabama

5. Cal State Fullerton

6. Nebraska

7. Georgia

8. Georgia Tech

HOSTS (RPI number)

Clemson #1

Rice #2

Texas #3

California St. Fullerton #4

Georgia Tech #5

Alabama #6

Nebraska #7

Georgia #8

Oklahoma #10

North Carolina #11

Virginia #12

Arkansas #15

Mississippi #16

Pepperdine #18

Kentucky #27

Oregon State #30

SNUBS (RPI number)

Florida State #9 (2-seed in Athens)

Miami (FL) #13 (2-seed in Lincoln)

North Carolina State #14 (2-seed in Austin)

Oklahoma State #16 (1-seed in Fayetteville)

2007

NATIONAL SEEDS

1. Vanderbilt

2. Rice

3. North Carolina

4. Texas

5. Arizona State

6. Florida State

7. Arkansas

8. San Diego

HOSTS (RPI number)

Rice #1

Vanderbilt #2

Texas #3 (in Round Rock, Texas)

North Carolina #4

Arizona State #5

Coastal Carolina #6

Texas A&M #7

Long Beach State #8

Florida State #9

Virginia #10

South Carolina #11

San Diego #12

Mississippi #13

Arkansas #15

Missouri #16

Wichita State #20

SNUBS (RPI number)

UL-Lafayette #14 (2-seed in College Station)

2008

NATIONAL SEEDS

1. Miami (FL)

2. North Carolina

3. Arizona State

4. Florida State

5. Cal State Fullerton

6. Rice

7. LSU

8. Georgia

HOSTS (RPI number)

Miami (FL) #1

North Carolina #2

Florida State #3

Arizona State #4

Rice #5

Coastal Carolina #6 (in Conway, SC)

Nebraska #8

LSU #9

California St. Fullerton #11

North Carolina State #12

Texas A&M #13

Oklahoma State #14

Georgia #17

Stanford #20

Long Beach State #23

Michigan #35

SNUBS (RPI number)

Georgia Tech #7 (2-seed in Athens)

Arizona #10 (1-seed in Ann Arbor)

Florida #15 (2-seed in Tallahassee)

2009

NATIONAL SEEDS

1. Texas

2. Cal State Fullerton

3. LSU

4. North Carolina

5. Arizona State

6. UC Irvine

7. Oklahoma

8. Florida

HOSTS (RPI number)

California St. Fullerton #1

Texas #2

North Carolina #3

Georgia Tech #4

Arizona State #5

Florida #7

LSU #8

Clemson #9

TCU #10

Rice #11

Florida State #14

Mississippi #16

Oklahoma #17

California-Irvine #18

Louisville #19

East Carolina #23

SNUBS (RPI number)

Virginia #6 (2-seed in Irvine)

Miami (FL) #12 (2-seed in Gainesville)

Arkansas #13 (2-seed in Fayetteville)

Texas A&M #15 (2-seed in Fort Worth)

2010

NATIONAL SEEDS

1. Arizona State

2. Texas

3. Florida

4. Coastal Carolina

5. Virginia

6. UCLA

7. Louisville

8. Georgia Tech

HOSTS (RPI number)

Arizona State #1

Coastal Carolina #2

Virginia #3

Florida #4

Texas #5

UCLA #6

Louisville #7

Miami (FL) #8

Arkansas #9

Georgia Tech #10

California St. Fullerton #11

TCU #15

Auburn #16

South Carolina #17

Oklahoma #18

Connecticut #23

SNUBS (RPI number)

Alabama #12 (2-seed in Atlanta)

Vanderbilt #13 (2-seed in Louisville)

Florida State #14 (1-seed in Norwich)

2011

NATIONAL SEEDS

1. Virginia

2. Florida

3. North Carolina

4. South Carolina

5. Florida State

6. Vanderbilt

7. Texas

8. Rice

HOSTS (RPI number)

North Carolina #1

Virginia #2

Florida #3

Vanderbilt #4

Florida State #5

South Carolina #6

Clemson #7

Georgia Tech #8

Arizona State #9

Texas A&M #10

Rice #11

Texas #12

California St. Fullerton #13

TCU #19

Oregon State #31

UCLA #34

SNUBS (RPI number)

Arkansas #14 (2-seed in Tempe)

Miami (FL) #15 (2-seed in Gainesville)

Georgia #16 (3-seed in Corvallis) *31-30 overall record*

2012

NATIONAL SEEDS

1. Florida

2. UCLA

3. Florida State

4. Baylor

5. Oregon

6. North Carolina

7. LSU

8. South Carolina

HOSTS (RPI number)

UCLA #1

Florida #2

Florida State #3

Baylor #4

North Carolina #5

Oregon #6

LSU #7

Purdue #8 (in Gary, IN)

Virginia #9

North Carolina State #10

South Carolina #11

Miami (FL) #12

Texas A&M #13

Arizona #14

Stanford #15

Rice #18

SNUBS (RPI number)

NONE

INELIGIBLE DUE TO NCAA VIOLATIONS

Arizona State #16

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