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Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Russia's Syria Mirage: July 17 - August 13, 2017

By Matti Suomenaro, Ellen Stockert, and Genevieve Casagrande

Russia
continues to masquerade as an effective anti-ISIS actor in order to lure the
U.S. into a counter-terrorism partnership in Syria. Russia seeks to leverage this
partnership to expedite an American withdrawal from Syria, removing the U.S. as
an obstacle to continued Russian build up and force projection in the Middle
East. Russia may achieve short-term territorial gains against ISIS, but will
ultimately undermine U.S.-led anti-ISIS efforts in Eastern Syria. The
Russian-backed campaign will fail to decisively defeat ISIS and al Qaeda in
Syria, however. Russian airstrikes in ISIS-held terrain regularly targeted
civilian infrastructure such as mosques, schools,
and medical centersfrom July 17 - August 13, according
to local activists. Russian airstrikes also reportedly targeted an internally-displaced persons (IDP)camp in Zour Shamar in Eastern Raqqa
province on July 23 - 24. Russia’s punitive strikes against vulnerable Sunni
populations will exacerbate local grievances, increase sectarian tension, and
pave the way for the resurgence of ISIS, al Qaeda, and other jihadist groups in
areas recently seized from ISIS. Moreover, pro-Bashar al Assad regime forces’ rapid advance in
Eastern Syria may indicate the regime is not allocating sufficient time or
manpower to conduct effective clearing operations. Incomplete clearing
operations could permit ISIS to leave behind latent attack cells or create
ISIS-permissive zones along the Euphrates River Valley. The pro-regime
coalition currently lacks the manpower required to secure and hold these areas
in the long-term.

Iran and the Assad regime are already exploiting nascent U.S.-Russian cooperation to expand their control into Eastern
Syria at the expense of the U.S. and its partners. Russian airstrikes primarily
targeted ISIS-held areas from July 17 - August 13 in support of Iranian and
Assad regime advances. Pro-regime forces backed byRussia and Iran
recaptured Sukhna, which sits on the Palmyra - Deir ez Zour Highway, from ISIS
on August 13 following a wave of ISIS counterattacks against the city from
August 8 - 10. Russian airstrikes also targetedvillages along the southern bank of of the Euphrates River in
southeastern Raqqa Province, allowing therecapture of al Numaysah, al Jaber, and al Kumaysah towns by pro-Iranian and regime forces. These gains were
facilitated by manpower freed from recent de-escalationzones brokered by Russia in Southwest Syria, the EasternGhouta suburb of Damascus, and
northwestern HomsProvince. Russia, Iran and Assad seek to
leverage these gains to constrain the freedom of action of the U.S.-led
anti-ISIS coalition in Syria. Pro-regime positioning along the Euphrates River
could block the advancement of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
southeast from Ar-Raqqa City after the completion of Ar-Raqqa City clearing
operations. Russia’s gains against ISIS in Syria’s East will ultimately
embolden Iran and the Bashar al Assad regime, rather than constrain them.

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of Russian airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties. The graphic likely under-represents the extent of the locations targeted in Eastern Syria, owing to a relative lack of activist reporting from that region.

High-Confidence Reporting.ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated by documentation from opposition factions and activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible that demonstrate a number of key indicators of Russian airstrikes.