Upset Watch appears every Thursday this season for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points, plus an additional game in which a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.

Upset Watch: Washington (+4.5) at Pittsburgh

Football Outsiders has always been an advocate of the modern offense: lots of shotgun and lots of passing. But our advice for Washington on Sunday is different. To beat Pittsburgh, the Redskins want to go old school and run, run, run.

To see the week's best possibility for an upset, plus the top upset in terms of covering the spread, you must be an ESPN Insider. Sign up today!