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January 27, 2014

Barron's 2014 Roundtable Highlight

The global economy remains highly levered, with no margin of safety. Many policy options have been exhausted. Leverage permits the possibility that the flutter of a butterfly's wing could set off a global crisis....

Moves in the U.S. and global bond market have been directed in recent years largely by central-bank asset purchasing, or quantitative easing. These policies have kept interest rates abnormally, if not historically, low. In the U.S., the Fed is beginning to pull back. Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds are 120 basis points, or 1.2 percentage points, higher than they were 12 to 15 months ago