AthensNews.gr wrote:9.26pm Here are the results of a Marc poll, conducted two days after the elections and aired by Alpha TV. Syriza are still growing in power it seems, while all other parties are losing voters. the breakdown is as follows:

My take: This election has always been about the establishment parties vs. some sort of alternative, and because of the emergence of several breakaway parties, finding an alternative to stand up to the establishment parties was difficult. Because SYRIZA performed so well in the first election, those who were in search of any alternative to the status quo have rallied around them. It also seems that this poll did not include parties like the Greens and others outside of Parliament, so I might be wrong.

Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

Viceroy wrote:[The Biblical creation story] was written in a time when there was no way to confirm this fact and is in fact a statement of the facts.

In a last ditch effort to avoid another election, President Papoulias has called all party leaders into his office for the weekend to forge a deal for a unity government himself. ND and PASOK are actively courting Democratic Left to join in coalition with them for a government to last 2 years at the most, according to PASOK chief Venizelos.

Meanwhile, the ECB and Merkel cabinet are backing off their stringent "complete austerity or no aid" position. Merkel's Finance Minister, after near-daily comments stating that Greece must accept the terms in the Memorandum to the letter, said he was open to including measures to incentivize growth (because as we know, growing the Greek economy was not priority #1 for the troika). Both major parties have changed their stances as well, saying they would want to renegotiate the Memorandum to include growth measures as well (because as we know, growing the Greek economy was no priority #1 for them either).

Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

Viceroy wrote:[The Biblical creation story] was written in a time when there was no way to confirm this fact and is in fact a statement of the facts.

Today President Papoulias continued his role as mediator today. He invited the leaders of ND, PASOK, DL and SYRIZA to meet in his office today, but SYRIZA refused to meet. Democratic Left refused to enter government with SYRIZA joining, and ND and PASOK agreed that it is necessary for SYRIZA to join in a government committed to the Euro if is to be a legitimate one. The goal is to create a unity government to last two years, the time where European elections will be held and all the Memorandum measures will have been implemented. Tsipras responded harshly, saying he "would not like to legitimize a Memorandum the Greek people have de-legitimized." Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis said that because of this, he refuses to cooperate SYRIZA should another election occur, and that a government of the left that Tsipras wishes for is an arrogant idea.

My take on this: As you guys can see, Kouvelis has flip-flopped between supporting SYRIZA and the other two. Depending on who he's talking to he says different things. The other two parties are indeed arrogant if they believe that Tsipras will join government without even considering any of his positions. I predict that should another election take place and SYRIZA get the 50 seat bonus he will seriously consider entering a government of the left.

Papoulias then suggested to the three parties that met with him that a government of "personalities" be formed - one of technocrats and politicians with wide appeal, as Kathimerini newspaper described it.

He also met with the heads of Independent Greeks and the KKE, but no progress was made with them as expected.

Also today, Der Speigel editors switched their position from one of keeping Greece in the Eurozone, to a managed exit of Greece from it.

If nothing is resolved tomorrow we are guaranteed a second election. The most recent opinion polls averaged project the following Parliament:

GreecePwns wrote:Also today, Der Speigel editors switched their position from one of keeping Greece in the Eurozone, to a managed exit of Greece from it.

That would be a bargain hunters dream if Greece returned to the drachma! You'd be able to get more deals than during Labor Day at Kohl's. I could probably buy the Parthenon for the cost of a couple pairs of Dockers. It would be like Baja without the kidnappers.

GreecePwns wrote:Also today, Der Speigel editors switched their position from one of keeping Greece in the Eurozone, to a managed exit of Greece from it.

That would be a bargain hunters dream if Greece returned to the drachma! You'd be able to get more deals than during Labor Day at Kohl's. I could probably buy the Parthenon for the cost of a couple pairs of Dockers. It would be like Baja without the kidnappers.

Betting on a Euro slide already has been a bargain hunters dream, Not only that, betting on the break up has been the same. Sold some sizeable market bets today to Paddy Power that I took out last year at at mind numbingly huge odds on the Euro breaking up ...the price then was quite breathtaking, I truly thought all my Christmases had come at once. Phoned my account Manager yesterday evening late and offered them to him at a tenth of the risk price (so ten times the cost price), he was on it first thing this morning and I see they are now offering severe odds on the Euro break up by 2015! Played the hedge by taking a position on Intrade but it's small potatoes now. The best the markets have to offer is even money a country will announce exit from the Euro by December 31 this year. They wont even take bets on Greece leaving the system any more, it has become what the betting population like to call a 'dead cert'.

To listen to the Eurocrats promising that this would never happen is amusing to any one with a smidgen of intelligence. Once again we are seeing the pygmy Political classes being well and truly crushed by the market forces and long may it last. Hopefully the momentum building in Europe will send this present bunch of smug, self opinionated, self satisfied wankers into oblivion once and for all. Greece should take the pain, get the hell out of Dodge and leave the Bondholders to pick up the pieces...the German/French axis can't abide that thought as most of those toxic bonds are held by their institutions now anyway with those nasty verminous Anglo Saxon bunch having dumped their exposures to the Euro zone banking groups some time ago. With a bit of luck Spain will stop creaking soon and start splitting wide open...then watch every one run for the hills.

Last year I started posting rates of sovereign bonds somewhere in this forum, can't be bothered to find them now, but if you go back there and see what was on offer back then compared to now it will shock you how bad things have become. Greece now has to pay an eye watering 24%+ on its ten year bonds...this ain't never going to happen so collapse is well and truly factored in.

Due to current economic conditions the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off

GreecePwns wrote:Also today, Der Speigel editors switched their position from one of keeping Greece in the Eurozone, to a managed exit of Greece from it.

That would be a bargain hunters dream if Greece returned to the drachma! You'd be able to get more deals than during Labor Day at Kohl's. I could probably buy the Parthenon for the cost of a couple pairs of Dockers. It would be like Baja without the kidnappers.

Betting on a Euro slide already has been a bargain hunters dream, Not only that, betting on the break up has been the same. Sold some sizeable market bets today to Paddy Power that I took out last year at at mind numbingly huge odds on the Euro breaking up ...the price then was quite breathtaking, I truly thought all my Christmases had come at once. Phoned my account Manager yesterday evening late and offered them to him at a tenth of the risk price (so ten times the cost price), he was on it first thing this morning and I see they are now offering severe odds on the Euro break up by 2015! Played the hedge by taking a position on Intrade but it's small potatoes now. The best the markets have to offer is even money a country will announce exit from the Euro by December 31 this year. They wont even take bets on Greece leaving the system any more, it has become what the betting population like to call a 'dead cert'.

To listen to the Eurocrats promising that this would never happen is amusing to any one with a smidgen of intelligence. Once again we are seeing the pygmy Political classes being well and truly crushed by the market forces and long may it last. Hopefully the momentum building in Europe will send this present bunch of smug, self opinionated, self satisfied wankers into oblivion once and for all. Greece should take the pain, get the hell out of Dodge and leave the Bondholders to pick up the pieces...the German/French axis can't abide that thought as most of those toxic bonds are held by their institutions now anyway with those nasty verminous Anglo Saxon bunch having dumped their exposures to the Euro zone banking groups some time ago. With a bit of luck Spain will stop creaking soon and start splitting wide open...then watch every one run for the hills.

Last year I started posting rates of sovereign bonds somewhere in this forum, can't be bothered to find them now, but if you go back there and see what was on offer back then compared to now it will shock you how bad things have become. Greece now has to pay an eye watering 24%+ on its ten year bonds...this ain't never going to happen so collapse is well and truly factored in.

Time to start printing money! "but but, we have to! It's an emergency!!!!!"

RUN ON THE BANKS IN GREECE!

Greece, we beg you! Embrace similar principles to the Tea Party in America and you can save your country. It's not going to be easy, but you know more than anyone else just how great the times were while the money was being spent and the debt was being racked up. Please do the responsible thing. The world is watching! Don't take any more bailouts! I wish yall didn't take the first one, and definitely not the second one! It's never to late too do the right thing.

The only thing we seem to be able to learn from history, is that we don't learn anything from our history.

This is just more evidence that America should be more like "the rest of the civilized world" especially concerning Universal Health Care.

Actually there is no run on the banks in Greece, but thanks for your input. I'll keep it on file for the next 6 months in case any openings are available.

An opinion poll released this morning shows that a SYRIZA-Democratic Left anti-bailout coalition is almost possible, and that if that does not work, SYRIZA can rule as a minority government. The poll predicts the following parliament:

If I put my hand over the bottom of the screen so I can't see the sub-titles it sounds and looks like the men behind the counter at any Greek deli in NY yelling at each other as they are wont to do. I've always wondered what they were arguing so emphatically about. Now I know ... HITLER!

If I put my hand over the bottom of the screen so I can't see the sub-titles it sounds and looks like the men behind the counter at any Greek deli in NY yelling at each other as they are wont to do. I've always wondered what they were arguing so emphatically about. Now I know ... HITLER!

Yes, that is a fair analogy. I thought about my uncles and grandfather playing backgammon and yelling at each other.

Fun story - My grandfather taught me to play backgammon. We played 10 games. Not only did he not let me win, he criticized my playing the entire time. I was 8.

The final opinion poll released before the June 17 election indicates a comfortable SYRIZA win and a possible two-party coalition between SYRIZA and Democratic Left. The poll predicts the following parliament:

The only other party within striking distance of Parliament is the newly-formed liberal alliance called Creation, Again! (some translate as Recreate Greece). The greens and others have fallen to around 1 percent. Even if Creation Again were to make it into parliament, the two parties on the left would still have 151 seats.

Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

Viceroy wrote:[The Biblical creation story] was written in a time when there was no way to confirm this fact and is in fact a statement of the facts.

This poll follows the release of the two main parties economic plans, which highlight massive differences in their ideology.

New Democracy (source: Kathimerini, English Edition)

The ND leader said he would seek to scale back some taxes and replace others, such as a property tax introduced last fall, with “fairer” levies.

He also repeated a pledge to revoke cuts to low-level pensions and to the salaries of police and air force employees as well as to boost the languishing job market. Another priority was to help indebted households to repay their dues to banks, he said.

On the thorny issue of 11.7 billion euros in public spending cuts that Greece’s creditors have demanded by the end of 2013, Samaras said that these should be made gradually over the next four years.

SYRIZA (Source: Athens News)

Tsipras said he would also introduce measures to relieve the debt burden of overborrowed households and cut valued added tax (VAT), especially on basic food items.

He also said that the bailout memorandum should be abandoned, saying it had failed to take the country out of its economic crisis and would prevent it from having access to financial markets this decade.

"The first action of the government of the left will be the annulment of the memorandum and the implement[ed] laws," he said.

The memorandum, he continued, would be replaced "with a national recovery plan for economic and social growth and productive reconstruction".

In a speech replete with promises and commitments, he also promised to raise the minimum wage back to its original 751 euros and to unemployment benefit to 461.50 euros.

Moreover, unemployment benefits would be paid for two years, instead of the current twelve months.

The Syriza leader also said banks receiving recapitalisation from the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund could face nationalization.

Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

Viceroy wrote:[The Biblical creation story] was written in a time when there was no way to confirm this fact and is in fact a statement of the facts.

If I put my hand over the bottom of the screen so I can't see the sub-titles it sounds and looks like the men behind the counter at any Greek deli in NY yelling at each other as they are wont to do. I've always wondered what they were arguing so emphatically about. Now I know ... HITLER!

Yes, that is a fair analogy. I thought about my uncles and grandfather playing backgammon and yelling at each other.

Fun story - My grandfather taught me to play backgammon. We played 10 games. Not only did he not let me win, he criticized my playing the entire time. I was 8.

GreecePwns wrote:Actually there is no run on the banks in Greece, but thanks for your input. I'll keep it on file for the next 6 months in case any openings are available.

An opinion poll released this morning shows that a SYRIZA-Democratic Left anti-bailout coalition is almost possible, and that if that does not work, SYRIZA can rule as a minority government. The poll predicts the following parliament:

This may be so, but the flight of capital from Greece is rising to dizzy heights.

Up to a few days ago it was steadily running at around EUR 100M a day....the best 'guess' in the markets this week is it is running at around 5 times that daily. This 'guess' isn't normally far from the reality of the situation as it is based on fund flows and FX transactions originating from that part of the world amongst other influences.

EUR 500M a day is a lot in any one's economy, especially one the size Greece.

I notice the 'great Euro rally' that was trumpeted by Eurozone based traders on Monday quickly reversed over the last 2 days wiping out any gains made after the Spailout.

Due to current economic conditions the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off

GreecePwns wrote:Actually there is no run on the banks in Greece, but thanks for your input. I'll keep it on file for the next 6 months in case any openings are available.

An opinion poll released this morning shows that a SYRIZA-Democratic Left anti-bailout coalition is almost possible, and that if that does not work, SYRIZA can rule as a minority government. The poll predicts the following parliament:

This may be so, but the flight of capital from Greece is rising to dizzy heights.

Up to a few days ago it was steadily running at around EUR 100M a day....the best 'guess' in the markets this week is it is running at around 5 times that daily. This 'guess' isn't normally far from the reality of the situation as it is based on fund flows and FX transactions originating from that part of the world amongst other influences.

EUR 500M a day is a lot in any one's economy, especially one the size Greece.

I notice the 'great Euro rally' that was trumpeted by Eurozone based traders on Monday quickly reversed over the last 2 days wiping out any gains made after the Spailout.

Tsipras said he would also introduce measures to relieve the debt burden of overborrowed households and cut valued added tax (VAT), especially on basic food items.

He also said that the bailout memorandum should be abandoned, saying it had failed to take the country out of its economic crisis and would prevent it from having access to financial markets this decade.

"The first action of the government of the left will be the annulment of the memorandum and the implement[ed] laws," he said.

The memorandum, he continued, would be replaced "with a national recovery plan for economic and social growth and productive reconstruction".

In a speech replete with promises and commitments, he also promised to raise the minimum wage back to its original 751 euros and to unemployment benefit to 461.50 euros.

Moreover, unemployment benefits would be paid for two years, instead of the current twelve months.

The Syriza leader also said banks receiving recapitalisation from the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund could face nationalization.

Well, I doubt they'll make things any worse than they are already, and maybe they'll even be able to improve some.

saxitoxin wrote:Your position is more complex than the federal tax code. As soon as I think I understand it, I find another index of cross-references, exceptions and amendments I have to apply.

I bet Greece elects more Nazi's and Communists. Maybe that will fix the main problem of rich Greeks destroying the world economy because they didn't pay all of their taxes that the greedy government demanded. If people want to scale the Greek crisis to something relative, Niall Ferguson is going with the Cuban Missile Crisis

Fruitcake is a voice I respect and trust. FC would you mind putting in 2 cents on this take?

As the Greek elections draw closer, bankers, governments, and investors are preparing for the possibility of the ailing country dropping the euro as its currency, a move that could spread turmoil throughout the global financial system.

The worst-case scenario envisions governments defaulting on their debts, a run onEuropean banks and a worldwide credit crunch reminiscentof the financial crisis in the fall of 2008.

A Greek election on Sunday will go a long way toward determining whether it happens. Syriza, a party opposed to the restrictions placed on Greece in exchange for a bailout from European neighbors, could do well.

In the meantime, banks and investors have sketched out the ripple effects if Greece were to leave the euro.

They think the path of a full-blown crisis would start in Greece, quickly move to the rest of Europe, and then hit the U.S. Stocks and oil would plunge, the euro would sink against the U.S. dollar, and big banks would uncover losses on complex trades.

What would Greece’s exit look like? In the worst-case scenario, it starts off messy.

The government resurrects the Greek currency, the drachma, and says each drachma equals one euro. However, currency markets would treat it differently. Banks’ foreign-exchange experts expect the drachma would plunge to half the value of the euro soon after its debut.

For Greeks, that would likely mean surging inflation — 35 percent in the first year, according to some estimates. The country is a net importer, and would have to pay more for oil, medical equipment, and anything else coming from abroad.

The Greek central bank would also need to print more drachmas once the country got locked out of lending markets, says Athanasios Vamvakidis, foreign exchange strategist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in London.

Greece’s government and banks currently survive on international aid. “Without access to markets, they have to print money,” he says.

That’s one reason analysts say the switch to a drachma would lead the country to default on its government debt, possibly triggering losses for the European Central Bank, and other international lenders.

Most assume foreign banks would have to write off loans to Greek businesses, too. Why would Greeks pay off foreign debts that effectively double when the drachma drops by half?

Say a small shop owner in Athens has a €50,000 business loan from a French bank. She also has €50,000 in savings in a Greek bank. The Greek government turns her savings into 50,000 drachma.

If the new currency fell by 50 percent to the euro as expected, her savings would suddenly be worth €25,000. But she would still owe €50,000 to the French bank.

European banks would take a direct blow. They’ve managed to shed much of their Greek debt but still held $65 billion, mainly in loans to Greek corporations, at the end of last year, according to an analysis by Nomura, a financial services company. French banks have the most to lose.

ACT II:

Here’s where things get scary.

The European Central Bank and European Union would have to persuade bond investors that they will keep Portugal, Spain, and Italy from following Greece out the door. Otherwise borrowing costs for those countries would shoot higher.

“If they fail to reassure bond investors, all of the nightmare scenarios come into play,” says Robert Shapiro, a former U.S. undersecretary of commerce in the Clinton administration.

Analysts agree that the so-called firewall built to stop the crisis from spreading needs more firepower.

Much of the €248 billion ($310 billion) left in the European Financial Stability Facility, one European bailout fund, was pledged by the same countries that may wind up needing it, Vamvakidis says.

There‘s also a European Stability Mechanism that’s supposed to be up and running next month, but Germany has yet to sign off on it.

A fast-spreading crisis is known in financial circles as contagion — a term borrowed from medicine and familiar to anyone who has watched a disaster movie about killer viruses on the loose.Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Greece Leaving the Euro (But Were Afraid to Ask)

“It’s like a disease that spreads on contact,” says Mark Blythe, professor of international political economy at Brown University.

The bond market, where banks, traders and governments cross paths, provides the setting. If Greece dropped the euro, traders would become more suspicious of Spain, Portugal and Italy and sell those countries’ government bonds, pushing their prices down anddriving their interest rates up.

Higher borrowing costs squeeze those countries’ budgets and push them deeper into recession. Plunging bond prices imperil Europe’s already troubled banks, which stockpiled government bonds when they were considered safe.

At this point, the risk would be high for a run on banks throughout Europe. People would stampede to their banks to withdraw what they can. Analysts and investors say that’s the biggest fear.

People in Spain, for example, have already seen what’s happened in Greece and have started pulling euros out of their accounts in fear the country will switch back to cheaper pesetas.

“People see their banks in trouble,” Shapiro says.

In less frantic times, the government would come to the rescue with cash or take over the banks. European countries have already committed to lend up to $125 billion to Spain’s banks to help save them.

But all this is happening in the middle of a government debt crisis, and if the crisis gets worse, the Spanish or Italian governments couldn’t borrow enough cash from investors to save the day.

“They can’t afford to guarantee deposits or money market balances,” Shapiro says. “They don’t have the ability to borrow internationally from bond markets. Where are they going to get the funds?”

From here, the crisis could easily snowball: Banks could fail, the surviving banks could stop lending to each other, and a credit freeze could shut down Europe as assuredly as a blizzard did last winter.

One way to stem the contagion would be French President François Hollande’s so-called eurobonds (bonds backed by all 17 euro countries). They could be sold to raise money for troubled European governments.

Germany, which has the strongest economy of the euro countries, has fought the eurobond suggestion. However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that she might consider Hollande’s idea if eurozone leaders agree to certain proposals.

Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Greece Leaving the Euro (But Were Afraid to Ask)Angela Merkel and François Hollande in Brusselswith Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann

The International Monetary Fund would probably pitch in. Peter Tchir, who runs TF Market Advisors, worries that the IMF may take a loss on the roughly $28 billion it has already loaned to Greece.

Cash-strapped European governments should be able to turn to the IMF for help, but the IMF’s money comes from its 188 member countries. Tchir says that the U.S. and other countries may balk if the IMF asks for help supporting Europe.

“People are happy to put money in if they think they won’t lose it,” Tchir says. “In this case, the IMF loses money, then everybody gets scared.”

ACT III:

A full-blown crisis would cross the Atlantic through the dense web of contracts, loans, and other financial transactions that tie European banks to those in the U.S., experts say.

Blythe, the professor at Brown, believes credit default swaps, the complex financial instruments made infamous by the 2008 financial crisis, would provide the path.

The swaps were created as a sort of insurance for loans. After lending money to a business or government, investors take out insurance on the loan. If the borrower runs into trouble and can’t pay – say, the government of Spain defaults – the banks that sold the insurance cover the loss.

A $2 billion trading loss that JPMorgan Chase revealed in May, traced to a hedge against the Europe crisis, shows just how easy it is for even the safest and savviest of banks to slip up.

And it doesn’t even take a default for a credit default swap to go bad.

If traders think other countries will follow Greece, they’ll drive up borrowing rates by selling government bonds, which also pushes up the cost of insuring their debt. That’s similar to how your neighborhood insurance agent handles a teenage driver.

Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Greece Leaving the Euro (But Were Afraid to Ask)In the derivatives market, where credit default swaps are traded, there’s a twist. When markets treat Spain like a bad credit risk, those who took out insurance on Spanish debt to protect against a default can force the banks that sold the insurance to prove they can make good on the claim.

To do that, banks cash out something else — U.S. government debt, gold, or anything easy to sell. In normal times, it’s no big deal. In a crisis, it can lead to a cascade of selling, spreading trouble from one market to another.

Another problem: It’s not clear how much U.S. banks have at risk to Europe through credit default swaps, because regulations let banks keep that information a secret.

“You could have American banks up to their necks in CDS liabilities,” Blythe says. “We don’t even know.”

There’s a wide variety of other paths the turmoil could take into the U.S.

Money market mutual funds, which hold more than $2.5 trillion, have an estimated 15 percent of their investments in Europe. European banks are also large buyers of U.S. mortgage bonds. If they’re forced to sell them, mortgage rates could jump, imperiling the U.S. housing market. Frightened banks might also pull the credit lines companies depend on for global trade.

So, what’s the good news? Many analysts don’t think the crisis will get that far. But that’s about it.

Just in case the worst comes to pass, analysts at Barclay’s have attempted to estimate the fallout. They compare it to the days after the investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008. This time, they project that oil prices would fall to $50, stock markets outside of Europe would plunge 30 percent, and the dollar would soar to trade nearly even with the euro.

Blythe is skeptical that it will get this bad, because he hopes the previous financial crisis has left governments and central banks prepared.

However the Greek story ends, Blythe believes it’s bound to be ugly. Putting 17 countries together to share a common currency worked well when Europe prospered. Now that they’re struggling, “all the design flaws are becoming apparent,” he says. Every solution that’s supposed to fix a problem creates another problem.

Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Greece Leaving the Euro (But Were Afraid to Ask)The proposed $125 billion loan to save Spanish banks, for instance, adds to the debt burden of Spain and other troubled European countries, which sent their borrowing costs higher and put a tighter squeeze on their budgets.

GreecePwns wrote:You've confirmed pretty much everything I've told you. It really does have nothing to do with "big government," no matter how much you try to shove that perspective down everyone's throats.

I state the fact that Greek GDP rose 4-5% annually from 2000-2008, and government spending rose 45-50% annually from 2000-2008. Sounds like big government to me, and I'm not shoving anything anywhere. I'm posting the facts. I am confident it's a no brainer for most people reading this.

Who is responsible for gov't spending increasing 45-50% every year between 2000-2008? Did that spending make gov't smaller?