Most Recent Extra Points

Wanna Be Startin' Somethin'

by Michael David Smith

We all love to spend our time in the off-season speculating about which teams improved or which teams got worse, but we very rarely hear any objective measures. These discussions almost always follow along the lines of, "I think that veteran they added is going to improve team chemistry," or "How could they let the heart and soul of their defense go in free agency?"

What we really need to do is assign a numerical value to every single player in the league. If we could do that we could then just add up the value of the new players on a team, subtract the value of the players who have left via free agency or retirement or injury or any other reason, and come up with the difference. If we were analyzing baseball, it would be easy to do this with win shares. In football, alas, we're a long way from having any such all-encompassing statistic for every player.

But if we're willing to simplify things a bit, I'd like to propose a decent measurement of a team's talent: Games started. I've gone through every team's roster and added up how many games the players on its current roster started last year.

Round

Starts

1

8

2

6

3

3

4

2

5

2

6

1

7

1

That covers the additions and subtractions of veterans, but what about rookies? I'm going to assign values to rookies according to the table on the right. A team with one pick in each round could expect 23 starts from rookies. These numbers represent the average games started by rookies taken in each round, according to this NFL.com article.

Simple math tells us that 22 starters for 16 games equals 352 starts per team per year, so figure that 352 is the baseline. A team with more than 352 games started in the chart below has probably improved, whereas a team with fewer than 352 games started has probably gotten worse. Let me admit (and this should be obvious) that all of this is intended only as a rough approximation of a team's level of talent. Last year Clinton Portis and Shawn Bryson each started 13 games. I'm in no way suggesting that their merits as running backs are equal. But a team that loses a lot of its starters can fairly be described as having lost out in the free agency game, whereas a team that adds a lot of starters from other teams has probably done well in free agency. It's also possible, with how often rosters change in August, that I've missed a player here or there. And finally, let's remember that rosters will continue to change throughout the off-season (and, for that matter, during the regular season).

Having said all that, on with the numbers:

Team

2003 Starts by Current Roster

Projected Rookie Starts

Total Projected Starts

JAC

372

32

404

KAN

373

21

394

TAM

375

19

394

WAS

372

14

386

ATL

358

25

383

NOR

356

25

381

CLE

358

20

378

GNB

349

19

368

NWE

333

32

365

DEN

332

30

362

PIT

335

23

358

DET

330

28

358

OAK

332

25

357

CIN

320

36

356

MIN

331

25

356

BUF

332

23

355

Team

2003 Starts by Current Roster

Projected Rookie Starts

Total Projected Starts

ARI

328

23

351

BAL

332

15

347

NYJ

324

22

346

SEA

322

23

345

HOU

316

24

340

NYG

318

21

339

STL

320

18

338

CHI

300

26

326

PHI

304

22

326

TEN

284

36

320

SDG

285

29

314

CAR

292

21

313

MIA

298

15

313

DAL

286

22

308

IND

287

20

307

SFO

258

30

288

Thoughts on a few teams:

By these numbers the Falcons appear in good shape, but it won't mean anything if Mike Vick gets hurt and Ty Detmer (who couldn't even be a second-stringer with the Lions) becomes their starter.

Philadelphia looks good if it can put together a secondary; that unit has only 44 games started from last year.

Despite losing Champ Bailey, Washington is deep in the secondary with additions of Ralph Brown (seven starts last year), Walt Harris (15) and Shawn Springs (eight). Add in Mike Barrow (16), Phillip Daniels (16) and Cornelius Griffin (14), and I like their defense, particularly if Gregg Williams can find someone to rush the passer.

The Packers will probably be the league's most unchanged team, with the same five guys who started 16 games apiece along the offensive line blocking for Ahman Green and Brett Favre, not to mention a virtually unchanged defense.

Carolina has only one returning offensive lineman -- Jordan Gross -- who started 16 games last year. I like Gross and center Jeff Mitchell, but I have serious doubts about the rest of the Panthers' offensive line.

Most of the headlines out of Tampa Bay were about the losses of Keyshawn Johnson, Warren Sapp and John Lynch, but the Bucs made a lot of additions, including Todd Steussie and Mario Edwards (16 starts apiece), plus Ken Dilger (15), Joey Galloway (14), Derrick Deese (11) and Charlie Garner (nine).

The Rams have only five returning 16-game starters, but all five are on the offensive line. That should mean the unit will be strong, but Orlando Pace is a holdout and Kyle Turley's health is a concern.

Where to start in discussing the 49ers? On defense I think they'll be OK if Julius Peterson signs and Brandon Whiting makes it through the season healthy, but their offense is a catastrophe. (More on this in an article coming Thursday.)

I still like Miami's defense, but their offense was a mess even before they lost Ricky Williams and David Boston. They don't know who their quarterback will be, and their offensive line depth chart reads, from left to right: Wade Smith, Jeno James, Seth McKinney, Greg Jerman, John St. Clair.

The Browns hardly lost anyone and gained several starters, including Kelvin Garmon (16 starts), Warrick Holdman (14), Ebenezer Ekuban (14), Jeff Garcia (13) and Terrelle Smith (10). Then again, they gave up their top two draft picks to get Kellen Winslow, who hasn't signed and scoffed at a contract that would have made him the highest-paid tight end in league history.

Indianapolis felt confident enough in its roster that it signed literally no one to replace linebacker Marcus Washington and defensive backs Walt Harris and David Macklin.

Jack Del Rio signed brought two of his old Carolina starters (Greg Favors and Deon Grant) to Jacksonville. Leading the league in this category should be yet another reason that the Jags are considered a trendy pick.

Tennessee used four of its first six picks on defensive linemen and will desperately need rookies on defense. Fourth-round rookie Bo Schobel projects as the starting left end and fifth-round rookie Robert Reynolds could start behind him at linebacker.

The Chiefs return 19 guys who started 16 games last year, the most in the league.

The Raiders return only three guys who started 16 games last year, the fewest in the league.

And, finally, I asked this a year ago and I'll ask it again. Who the hell are these guys starting on the offensive line for the Chargers? Phil Bogle? Isn't that my plumber's name? Courtney Van Buren? Didn't she go to my high school? The Chargers have the best young running back in the league and they want these guys opening holes for him?