Friday, January 22, 2010

Since 1970, 62% of all games (78) have been won by 11 points or more showing that when it comes down to all the marbles, one team goes for the throat while the other plays beneath the level that got them there.

In reference to Championship game points spreads and how those teams have finished that are similar to this weeks lines, you can see that the Colts have history on their side, not just winning, but covering the spread as well. Teams that were favored by 7 to 9.5-points are 14-4 against the spread.

Things are a little more competitive with the Vikings-Saints game, and how history relates to that spread. Teams that have been have been favored by 3.5 to 6.5-points in this round have gone 12-12-2 against the spread. The tightness of the number and team rating, minus the standard 3-point home-field advantage, basically make these pick 'em games.

In New Orleans case, the home field advantage -- one of the leagues better home edges -- is worth an extra half-point. So essentially the game is a tossup between the two best teams in the NFC, being played in a hostile environment. The big questions is, ho much of a difference will the crowd make?