Meanwhile in Moscow, officials insist that Georgia
recognize the sovereignty of its former autonomous regions before diplomatic
relations can be fully restored.

South Ossetia five years after the war (part 2). Source: Vimeo / RBTH

These rigid, mutually exclusive demands do
not give much hope that bilateral relations will improve any time soon.

Contacts between Moscow and Tbilisi are now
being carried out in two ways: The Geneva multilateral consultations on the
prevention of tension in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, held once every one to two
months, and direct negotiations on economic and humanitarian issues between
Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Grigori Karasin
and Special Prime Minister of Georgia on Russian Relations Zurab Abashidze,
which are held in Prague less often than the meetings in Geneva.

Although the situation is not normal, the
issue of restoring diplomatic relations does not seem to be very pressing.
There is no clear public mandate that would push the two countries towards
addressing this issue.

For the Russian side, not having an embassy
in Tbilisi is more of an image question. The Russians who live in Georgia don't
have problems. They don't need a visa even to enter the country; Russian
investments are welcome here as well as American or any other; the market is
full of Russian products; Georgians still consider Dostoyevsky and Pushkin to
be geniuses; Georgians can watch Russian TV channels; and speaking Russian in
public doesn't elicit negative reactions.

But for the Georgian side, a lack of
diplomatic relations causes some inconveniences, if only because there are
Georgian citizens who, for a variety of reasons, continue to spend most of
their time in the Russian Federation and any problems they have must be handled
through the Swiss embassy. However, if Russia, as projected, rescinds, or at
least eases visa requirements for Georgian citizens, the Georgian authorities can
avoid restoring diplomatic relations with Moscow for as long as they want. From
a practical point of view there is no visible loss.

Russia opened its markets to Georgian
products; it is on the verge of starting regular charted flights; land and
water routes have been opened. It would be hard to name a country with which
Georgia had better economic relations.

There are few Georgian products in the
markets of Azerbaijan and Turkey, named by Tbilisi as strategic partners, and
even less trade with the West. The return of the Russian market for Georgian
has proved to be significant for the Georgian economy.

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However, it would be naive to believe that the trend of
improving Russian-Georgian relations is irreversible. The change of power in
Georgia has not changed its foreign policy goals. In any case, according to
Ivanishvili, Georgia’s priority remains joining NATO and other Western
organizations.

Moscow remains categorically opposed to Georgia's entry into
NATO. The latest proof of this was Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s interview
on Georgian TV station Rustavi-2.

Although relations seem stable, there remains the fear that at
any moment careful analysis will show harmful substances in the Georgian
products allowed on the Russian market, and airplanes from Tbilisi show
individuals that are unwanted in Russia. And this may, as experience of the
past 10 years of Russian-Georgian relations shows, prove to be only a prelude
to a new intergovernmental crisis.