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This past year has been marked by business-as-usual, with a little unusual mixed in. Sure, it was business-as-usual when the economy went through another recession scare in June; but two recession scares in a single year are quite unusual. While the first scare proved to be yet another case of frightened forecasters crying wolf, the second and current scare seems far more plausible.

The tax shock, as part of the fiscal cliff, is still set to strike in January, and despite much sound and fury among policy makers, nothing has been done so far to blunt its impending impact.

The shock does not just consist of a half-a-trillion-dollar jump in taxes over the course of 2013. As I reported last week ("Tax-Refund Delays Could Trigger Recession," Dec. 17), the Internal Revenue Service has made it known that more than $200 billion in tax refunds normally made in the first quarter may be delayed until the second quarter, due mainly to confusion over the Alternative Minimum Tax, or AMT.

On Wednesday, the IRS upped the ante on the risk faced by the economy. In a Dec. 19 letter to the House Committee on Ways and Means, IRS Acting Commissioner Steven T. Miller warned that "most taxpayers may not be able to file their 2012 tax returns until late in March of 2013, or even later," with "lengthy delays of tax refunds" resulting.

The letter contained new information: Miller hiked his estimate of the number of returns not filed on time from a previous 60 million to "80 to 100 million of the 150 million total returns expected to be filed."

Consumer spending has been increasing by an average of $90 billion per quarter. So if $100 billion in refund checks get postponed, that alone could cause a decline in consumer spending in the first quarter. In addition, based on a statement last week from the Obama administration, it now appears certain that payroll taxes will rise back to normal rates in January, thus ending the payroll tax holiday of two years, causing a hit to paychecks of $25 billion in the first quarter.

The two other key parts of the tax shock—the broader imposition of the AMT, and the rollback of the Bush tax cuts—are still in play. Offers made by either side of the negotiating table could be withdrawn if a deal continues to be delayed.

The turmoil at the IRS turns mainly on lack of instructions about the AMT. The Bush tax cuts drove more people into the AMT, a consequence that has been mitigated via an annual "patch" that has yet to be announced for this year. The greater the delay on what will be done about it, the greater the likelihood of economic turmoil in the first quarter, whatever deal is ultimately struck on blunting the tax shock.

ALSO UNUSUAL IN 2012: For the first time ever, the Federal Reserve set a specific target not just on inflation, but on the unemployment rate. In its Dec. 12 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee in effect promised to keep the short-term interest rate near zero "at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5%." Since committee members do not expect unemployment to reach 6.5% until well into 2015, they seem to anticipate a zero-interest-rate policy for about that long.

But one part of business-as-usual in 2012 could mean the economy reaches that target sooner rather than later. Much depends on that wild card, the share of the population over 16 that chooses to participate in the labor force. Because the labor-force participation rate was expected to "rebound" in 2012, with a surge of entrants into the job market, the consensus of 50 forecasters polled in January by Blue Chip Economic Indicators significantly underestimated the potential for the unemployment rate to fall in 2012. Even though the consensus put economic growth at 2.3%, thus somewhat overestimating growth, it predicted at the same time that "the unemployment rate will remain elevated, still averaging 8.5% in Q4 of this year."

The forecasting error was a repetition of 2011; the October-November average on the unemployment rate has been 7.8%, not 8.5%. Far from rebounding, the participation rate has continued to tick down, although at a slower pace than in 2011. The anticipated deluge of job seekers swelling the ranks of the unemployed has failed to materialize.

Because of increases in the population, there has still been some increase in the number of people in the labor force. But if those increases continue to be modest, the same lackluster growth could bring a decline in joblessness to 6.5% a year sooner than the FOMC expects.

GROWTH IN REAL gross domestic product has been about unchanged from the year before. Real GDP growth in 2011 ran just 2%, and based on the likelihood that the current quarter is sluggish, growth in 2012 might barely run 2%. Slowed growth in the current quarter is due mainly to the looming tax shock.

Last year ended on an upbeat note, tempered by caution; 2012 ends with a whimper, laced with apprehension.