I was five years old, it was a sunny morning in late spring. My brother was in school, my Mom was in the house, the one my Father built just before I was born in Whonnock, British Columbia. Address rural route, your get your mail in town. I would be going to Thornhill School that fall.

This particular day, I was playing by the road allowance at the end of our long driveway. My dog (Colby, he was a black lab) and me, hanging out. Every once in awhile, someone (probably lost) would drive by and I’d have a good long look at them before going about my business. In those years, I could identify a vehicle pretty well, although my Dad and brother were the real experts.

I remember the day because of my Grandpa and his horse, Tom. When I was five Tom and Colby were my best friends.

My day was pretty much planned. Outside until lunch, then play in the backyard until 3pm. At 3, Mom would call me in and we’d watch “The Edge of Night” while she had a cigarette with all of the curtains drawn so no one would see her (that’s why I had to go in). By 3:45, the bus would drop off my brother and we’d play until supper.

But on this morning, something was different. My Grandpa had taken Tom and the heavy logging chains up the hill across from our house. They were clearing trees like mad in those years (for housing) and Tom and Grandpa would haul them to the sawmill (it was between our house and Grandpa’s) every day.

I kept hearing this thundering sound. It was like a truck engine and I could feel the ground rumble, and Colby was acting very strange. Barking and actually angry. The rumble kept getting louder, I stayed just shy of the road, completely unaware of the coming danger.

Maybe one minute before Tom hit the road, I heard my Grandpa’s voice in a way I’d never heard it before. He was screaming my name, in a high pitched, excited way, and then something else I didn’t understand (looking back, suspect it was something like “get the hell out of the way!”). Colby and I ran over and got into Dad’s truck (it was parked at the end of the driveway, to the side and out of the way).

Tom had been spooked and took off like a bat out of hell down that makeshift logging road towards our house with a full load of logs. By the time he turned south all of the logs had fallen away, Tom was carrying chains and running so fast it scared the hell out of me. A couple of minutes later my Grandpa came running down the hill, looking half past dead and white as a sheet. He checked on me and kept chasing Tom. He ran all the way to Mr. Muth’s house. Grandpa caught Tom, calmed him down, and that was a helluva morning. Later that day, I fed Tom all of Grandpa’s apples I could find. Thought it was the least I could do.

I thought of that moment yesterday, when trying to bring together my thoughts about this team. I think something is not quite right, something has this team spooked. Can’t put my finger on it. I know they don’t have the horses, but it feels like it’s something more, something a trade or recall can’t fix. Injuries? Coaching? Don’t know. The numbers say this thing will turn north. My advice? Feed them apples.

PIKE’S PEAK, YEAR OVER YEAR

Oilers in November 2015: 3-5-1, goal differential -2

Oilers in November 2016: 2-6-1, goal differential -11

Oilers in November 2017: 4-4-1, goal differential +1

G10 in November 2015 was a 4-1 loss to Carolina and a year later the Oilers were winning 5-2 over the Dallas Stars (hatty for 97). No matter what happens today, this year’s Oilers will remain the most successful November Edmonton team under Todd McLellan.

AFTER 20, YEAR OVER YEAR

Oilers 15-16: 6-12-1, goal differential -12

Oilers 16-17: 10-8-1, goal differential +2

Oilers 17-18: 7-10-2, goal differential -10

G20 fall 2015 saw Edmonton romp over NJD 5-1, and last year it was 5-0 Oilers over Chicago. This year’s Oilers have more in common with the 2015-16 Oilers team than last year’s and this road trip is going to hammer this thing home one way or another.

I honestly don’t think there’s a game on this road trip where you can absolutely pronounce the Oilers as the favorite. My “best bets” for wins in the next week are Dallas (they are slumping) and Buffalo (they are Buffalo). If they lost all five I would be surprised but it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world. Everyone has their own opinions about what’s wrong with this team (mine is ‘they don’t have the horses’) but it is impossible to argue that this team is firing on all pistons.

LOGIC AND REASON

You can learn a lot from Oilers Nerd Alert. As difficult as this season has been, and as possible as it is that regression occurs after the season is lost, the numbers suggest this team is better than their won-loss record. Now is not a time to panic, based on numbers.

It’s very difficult to get our minds around this statement: The losing that happened 2006-16 is different in one important way from the losing we are seeing today. This is a good team, although it may not be a playoff team.

LOSING RUNWAY

Peter Chiarelli made a trade this week, one of those smaller items he does well. Mike Cammalleri played well in the first game and arrives at a point where a line shuffle is in the ether. Where will Cammalleri land in a shuffle? Don’t know.

Connor McDavid has been effective with Leon Draisaitl and Patrick Maroon over a long period of time. I think Cammalleri might be a reasonable option the top line, preferable to running young Jesse Puljujarvi out there with McDavid this season.

POSSIBLE LINES

Patrick Maroon—Connor McDavid—Mike Cammalleri

Milan Lucic—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Leon Draisaitl

Drake Caggiula—Ryan Strome—Jesse Puljujarvi

Jujhar Khaira—Mark Letestu—Zack Kassian

I wouldn’t run the lines as above. I would run Leon on RW. When Anton Slepyshev returns, I think Todd McLellan might have enough talent to run Leon at center. Until then? Stay the course. It isn’t sexy.

WOULD YOU?

Bob McKenzie: “The Vegas Golden Knights are getting calls on pending UFA wingers James Neal and David Perron. It’s been believed that they would move them at the trade deadline. If someone were to “blow their socks off,” they might consider moving now, though that is not likely to happen. There are lots of teams looking for help up front. GM George McPhee could also be open to talking to Neal and/or Perron about a contract extension.”

Peter Chiarelli can probably reach out and help this team today, but he would have to trade Jesse Puljujarvi or Darnell Nurse to do it. Is that a good idea?

My answer: I would make a deal. I would not trade Jesse Puljujarvi for a pending UFA but I would deal him for a younger, established NHL player under control. Seriously. By the way, I’d do that if the team had a record of 10-7-2 as well.

Enjoyed this Post?

Subscribe to our RSS Feed, Follow us on Twitter or simply recommend us to friends and colleagues!

A star player has the puck knocked off his stick because he doesn’t want to dump and chase. The goalie lets in a weak goal on the transition. People then state that Connor shouldn’t be on the ice. This is some of the worst hockey analysis that I’ve ever read.

Material pocession:
A star player has the puck knocked off his stick because he doesn’t want to dump and chase. The goalie lets in a weak goal on the transition. People then state that Connor shouldn’t be on the ice.This is some of the worst hockey analysis that I’ve ever read.

As bad as refusing to acknowledge that a player cannot repeatedly turn the puck over at the offensive blue line and in his own zone? 3 turnovers in bad places by the same player – led to 3 scoring chances against and a PIM.

Sorry but, as good as the guy is, if he’s constantly turning the puck over at the opposition blueline, he is hurting the team.

Analysis? What analysis. Have you ever seen a headless chcken running around after the fact?

Don’t mind me. Ignorant ass sneezed on me at Sobeys on Thursday. No amount of obsessive face and hand washing escapes the after effects. I’m feeling like Jayne Mansfield after a car accident. And no, it’s not too late for a rum toddy and the super sized Benlyn all in one.

OriginalPouzar: As bad as refusing to acknowledge that a player cannot repeatedly turn the puck over at the offensive blue line and in his own zone?3 turnovers in bad places by the same player – led to 3 scoring chances against and a PIM.

Sorry but, as good as the guy is, if he’s constantly turning the puck over at the opposition blueline, he is hurting the team.

Yes, Connor McDavid, the league MVP, should never commit a turnover because he’s not allowed to make a mistake. Let’s continue to focus our criticism on the one guy who isn’t the problem.

Material pocession: Yes, Connor McDavid, the league MVP, should never commit a turnover because he’s not allowed to make a mistake.Let’s continue to focus our criticism on the one guy who isn’t the problem.

Ummmm, it was 3 turnovers, in a five minute stretch – all of them egregious and on the heals of a terrible turnover last game that changed that game

He was absolutely a huge part of the reason we were down 2-0 at the time (and could have been more).

OriginalPouzar: Ummmm, it was 3 turnovers, in a five minute stretch – all of them egregious and on the heals of a terrible turnover last game that changed that game

He was absolutely a huge part of the reason we were down 2-0 at the time (and could have been more).

Not 3 huge turnovers. It’s okay to credit the opposition for making a good defensive play. The first goal was all Talbot. If you blame 97 for that then we can’t continue. The second goal came off of a ‘huge turnover’ at the offensive blue line that turned into a dreaded 2 on 2 rush the other way. What’s a standard goal conversion rate for a 2 on 2 rush? I’ll guess less than 1%. So McDavid’s huge turnover led to an extremely low percentage opportunity that was converted.

Material pocession: Not 3 huge turnovers.It’s okay to credit the opposition for making a good defensive play.The first goal was all Talbot.If you blame 97 for that then we can’t continue.The second goal came off of a ‘huge turnover’ at the offensive blue line that turned into a dreaded 2 on 2 rush the other way.What’s a standard goal conversion rate for a 2 on 2 rush?I’ll guess less than 1%.So McDavid’s huge turnover led to an extremely low percentage opportunity that was converted.

Nothing to do with the first goal.

He turned the puck over at the opposition blue line on the 2nd goal – it went the other way and in our net.

Next shift, he turned the puck over in our own zone and had to take a PIM to negate a scoring chance.

First shift out of the box, he turned the puck over again at the offensive zone and the play went back the other way.

He is an amazing player, the best in the world – that doesn’t mean his play is without criticism and he can’t be held accountable when he’s hurt the team.

He turned the puck over at the opposition blue line on the 2nd goal – it went the other way and in our net.

Next shift, he turned the puck over in our own zone and had to take a PIM to negate a scoring chance.

First shift out of the box, he turned the puck over again at the offensive zone and the play went back the other way.

He is an amazing player, the best in the world – that doesn’t mean his play is without criticism and he can’t be held accountable when he’s hurt the team.

In that 10 minute stretch, he was hurting the team

You miss the point. He’s the best player and you don’t want him to stop trying to make plays. Turnovers are going to happen. What you don’t want to do is take the best player off the ice like some were saying. That’s absurd.

Material pocession: You miss the point.He’s the best player and you don’t want him to stop trying to make plays.Turnovers are going to happen.What you don’t want to do is take the best player off the ice like some were saying.That’s absurd.

No, I’m not missing the point – I know the turnover leaders in the league are filled with the best players.

With that said, constant turnovers at the blueline and in your own zone cannot occur – yes, 3 in a 5-10 minute stretch is “constant”.

They were also on the heels of a bad turnover at the offensive zone last game that ended in our net and changed the game.

No, I’m not saying he has to stop trying to make plays but he also cannot make turnover after turnover after turnover in dangerous places and that was indeed what he was doing and they were costing goals against and penalties.

And bishop shut the door after lehotnen got the hook…the goaltending is simply unacceptable. Completely burns when you see what Mike Smith did in their win today. Every time the opposing team takes a shot I cringe…reminds me of the goaltending from the dark times.

Does anyone know what our record is in afternoon games? I swear the only one I recall winning in my lifetime was the outdoor game in Winnipeg last year. Like Thursday night football, afternoon games should be banned.

Southern Oil:
Does anyone know what our record is in afternoon games?I swear the only one I recall winning in my lifetime was the outdoor game in Winnipeg last year.Like Thursday night football, afternoon games should be banned.

Weak game by Talbot. If 97 not involved seems to be no offence. Our D not getting it done. Game seemed to change when Bishop came in because Lehtonen was crap and likely Oilers don’t score 2 of the 3 goals if Bishop starts. Getting pretty hard to see Oilers pulling out of this and road trip could seal the deal if they don’t win 3 of the next 4. Getting tougher to remain any level of optimism!

Part of the reason that I’m not really all that emotional about the way this season is going is a one-off bad year could actually set this team up well for the future.

Given the need for value contracts in the top 6 going forward, I’ve been extremely concerned about been “contenders” and “buyers” at the deadline, sending away futures (prospects/picks) for rentals

If we are out of it come the deadline, not only will we not weekend our prospect pool, but we should be able to get back some decent assets for Maroon, Letestu and Cammalleri – and in a deep draft as well.

Part of the reason that I’m not really all that emotional about the way this season is going is a one-off bad year could actually set this team up well for the future.

Given the need for value contracts in the top 6 going forward, I’ve been extremely concerned about been “contenders” and “buyers” at the deadline, sending away futures (prospects/picks) for rentals

If we are out of it come the deadline, not only will we not weekend our prospect pool, but we should be able to get back some decent assets for Maroon, Letestu and Cammalleri – and in a deep draft as well.

I’m not ready to accept that process but it is a silver lining.

With that said, I am HIGHLY concerned with our GM making a substantial panic move – trading material futures (Puljijarvi, first rounder) for short term help (rental).

At this point, while I’ve far from given up on the season, that type of move is simply WAY too risk for my liking.

I’m not sure what, if anything, can or should be done at this point but I’m worried about a move that is going to give away material future assets.

OriginalPouzar: With that said,I am HIGHLY concerned with our GM making a substantial panic move – trading material futures (Puljijarvi, first rounder) for short term help (rental).

At this point, while I’ve far from given up on the season, that type of move is simply WAY too risk for my liking.

Totally agree. Now is not the time to give away assets like PJ, D prospects or high picks in 2018 (isn’t this supposed to be a really good draft year????) Focus needs to be on improving our D ( finding a away to get rid of #4 would be a great start) Find cheap wingers to play with 97 and build a second scoring line around 29. Hope Chia is up to the task but a bit skeptical that he has the patience to get it right!

I’m not sure what, if anything, can or should be done at this point but I’m worried about a move that is going to give away material future assets.

OriginalPouzar: Yes, it has but I will also be pumped up to watch the game on Tuesday.

Oh, I’ll be cheering as well…I have to, I’ve been fan of this team since ’79, I’m
not going to stop now.

My stance on this season has changed in the last 10 games-they need to just let this
season play out and see what happens. No major trades trying to salvage this season,
but an eye toward next season for sure if something comes available (ie:shooter for
McDavid or a 2RD)

With whispers of an $82M cap next year, sell big at the deadline, take your lumps this
year, and retool next summer.

This team is deficient, and trying to fix this in season isn’t going to be easy

Gerta Rauss: Oh, I’ll be cheering as well…I have to, I’ve been fan of this team since ’79, I’m
not going to stop now.

My stance on this season has changed in the last 10 games-they need to just let this
season play out and see what happens. No major trades trying to salvage this season,
but an eye toward next season for sure if something comes available (ie:shooter for
McDavid or a 2RD)

With whispers of an $82M cap next year, sell big at the deadline, take your lumps this
year, and retool next summer.

This team is deficient, and trying to fix this in season isn’t going to be easy

The season is probably toast. I don’t think Chia is going to trade futures because there’s nothing to gain this season. So we’re sellers. Who can we sell?? Maroon? Strome? Might get a 2nd and 3rd in return. We are in for a loooooong season.

97 + 29 did not have the strongest game today (flu?) but Connor did get 3 pts to keep us in the game. I know we are all pretty frustrated about the season so far but would suggest caution about dumping too hard on our two best players who are going to be here a long time! Lets not upset LT!

I’d be seriously looking at a deal for a #1D. Part of the blame is on the coach for not giving him the responsibility the contract demands. Drive the 2nd line! 8.5! Gets to cruise around on the wing while 97 and 93 do the lifting. No wonder we are seeing the cute little lackadaisical 5 foot sauce turnovers.

I like the player and don’t think he is THE problem. I’m just saying that contract does not match the deployment, or production, and that is a problem. And next year it could be an even bigger one.

Fans are so short-sighted – a bad few games does not make a player – its an 8 year contract where it will most probably take up a decreasing percentage of the cap year over year and he should be a first line producer throughout its term (and he has been this year despite this slump).

This team is not a Stanley Cup favorite anymore, never was in my opinion. We are at least 2 years away from that point. But they are not as bad as they look right now.
I think they surprised Chia a bit last year and now are taking the dreaded step back. Good thing he signed Macdavid and Drai to the max extensions last summer. They might be a bit more hesitant to commit to 8 years right now.
Biggest difference from last year is a drop off in play from some of our key players.
Goal-Talbot has been mediocre at best so far. The Oilers will not win consistently without better goaltending.
Defense – Sekera out means they are missing their best dman from the regular season last year. Klefbom is playing worse defensively than he did at the start of last season which wasn’t good. Has taken a big step back from his play at the end of last season. Nurse has taken a step forward but that doesn’t make up for the loss of Sekera and the deterioration of Klefbom.
Forwards – Yes Macdavid is on the same scoring pace as last year but a lot of other NHL forwards are on that same pace or better. He is still the best reason to watch hockey but to my eye he doesn’t seem as consistently dominant as he did at times last year. Like a lot of young skilled forwards he has a lot to learn about defensive zone coverage.
Drai has become more of a stationary winger rather than the dominant center Chia envisioned. He is getting his points but this player needs to be in the middle of the ice driving play.
In short, I don’t think this is a personel issue. I think this is a performance and deployment issue. Either way I think this team will have to wait for some of their young players and prospects to mature before they are ready to challenge for a cup.

He had a bad game and is going through a bit of a slump. All players do, even generational players (Crosby has been bad to start this season – league worst plus/minus for context).

There are going to be numerous contracts handed out this summer well over what Drai is making, potentially north of $10M in a few cases.

Drai has 7.75 years to play up to the value of his contract – a bad stretch of 4-5 games (prior to which he was over a PPG) is really meaningless.

Over ppg with McDavid. Key word with McDavid. You are paying him like a top 10 forward in the league in UFA money. I don’t think he’s better than kucherov stamkos Tavares Eichel Kane Seguin Benn Wheeler Scheiffele Laine Matthews McDavid Crosby Malkin Tarasenko. So why pay him like he is.
If Caggula puts up points with McDavid are you advocating a big contract. Not saying Drai isn’t a good player but I don’t see why he makes a penny over 7 mil and I personally think that’s a little high

StixMalone:
Still don’t know how that guy in Arizona still has a job. We can gripe about Chia all day long but I’m glad Arizona is not my team……..

What could go wrong with hiring a 26 YO with very little hockey experience at the lower levels of junior hockey as a player and almost none professionally to run a team in the best league in the world?

Believe it or not there are people on this blog who think 8.5 million is fair value for Drai. Relatively unproven as a center. Rode an unsustainable shooting percentage last year. Got exceptionally hot on the PP. Eerily similar to Eberle prior to his SIX million dollar contract (a large part of the reason we shipped him out for Strome)

For me this season is mostly on goalering. We talked about the Jets and other teams being torpedoed by it, now we’re back at it. Every team makes mistakes especially young teams, this year they go in too much.

Time to give Broissoit a stretch, this is where the stubbornness lies. Talbot is off as goalies do some seasons. He’ll probably bounce back but they have given him a shot to get going but he can’t get consistent.

Sit him for at least a few. Broissoit has shown well, whomever is better should play at any position except 1C because generational gets a pass where others don’t.

Scungilli Slushy: What could go wrong with hiring a 26 YO with very little hockey experience at the lower levels of junior hockey as a player and almost none professionally to run a team in the best league in the world?

Of course canning him now loses face.

Did Chiarelli have any pro hockey experience? Chayka took over a terrible team. Chia took over a team with significantly more talent, and we are just as close to Arizona as we are a playoff spot. You know who had a lot of professional hockey experience? Craig Mactavish. And Kevin Lowe. Stan Bowman never played any high level hockey, and he has 3 cups as a GM.

I do agree we don’t have the horses to consider ourselves an elite team and also agree that we probably played over our heads a bit last year, especially in the last month. But its not all bad and I don’t think playoffs are out of reach.

After 20 games we are 4 points out of 8th. Could be 6 points by tonight though.

I don’t see why we couldn’t gain 7 extra points compared to 8th place in the next 62 games.

Many of the shot, scoring chance metrics suggest a poor luck team.

For example
At 5 on 5 with McDavid and RNH off the ice
-3rd line shooting at a 3.6% rate
-4th line shooting at a 0% rate.

Yes bottom 6 may not even be league average, but their shooting %’s should change, heck 4th lines %’s can only go up. Just when will it and will it be too late are a couple of things to ponder though.

What will make or break our season is how well we do against the Pacific. A winning record gives us a pretty good chance to make playoffs. Losing record and we are possibly golfing early.

Mr. D.:
No its only 1 link
Top 4 d are not doing it.
Lines 3 and 4 are legally dead.
Lucic ain’t doing it.

I believe certain players had career years and probably never reach that level again. But if you think back Talbot was covering many grade A scoring chances. Our team is generally the same and our core a year closer to prime. That is the worrisome part.

Believe it or not there are people on this blog who think 8.5 million is fair value for Drai. Relatively unproven as a center. Rode an unsustainable shooting percentage last year. Got exceptionally hot on the PP. Eerily similar to Eberle prior to his SIX million dollar contract (a large part of the reason we shipped him out for Strome)

If you think Drai and Ebs are anyway similiar, you’re not paying attention.

flyfish1168: I believe certain players had career years and probably never reach that level again. But if you think back Talbot was covering many grade A scoring chances. Our team is generally the same and our core a year closer to prime. That is the worrisome part.

Look at how much better Colorado is with their #1 D back and better goaltending.