Stuff

YouGov’s regular voting intention poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 43%, LAB 25%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 10%. The Conservative lead remains strong and third place continues to bounce back and forth between the Lib Dems and UKIP (I expect they are actually about even and we’re just seeing normal random sample variation).

On best Prime Minister May leads Jeremy Corbyn by 53% to 13%. This is May’s highest figure since her honeymoon, Jeremy Corbyn’s lowest ever and the 38 point gap is the biggest we’ve recorded so far. This is the first poll since the attack on Parliament and Prime Ministers sometimes do see a boost to their reputation if they are seen to have handled an emergency with confidence so it could be connected, or the timing could be pure co-incidence.

The reason for the huge gap is Corbyn’s low support among Labour voters. Typically people answer these questions along partisan lines – Tory voters pick the Tory leader, Labour voters pick the Labour leader, the best PM lead ends up being similar to the voting intention lead. At the moment 94% of current Tory voters think that May would make the better Prime Minister, but only 46% of current Labour voters say Corbyn would (15% say May, 39% say “Not sure”). Among people who voted Labour at the last election Corbyn’s position is even worse, only 27% say he would make the better Prime Minister, 29% say Theresa May. Full tabs are here.

Given today is Article 50 day, I’ve also written a much longer piece over on the YouGov website bringing together lots of the recent YouGov research on Brexit – you can find that here.

743 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 43, LAB 25, LD 11, UKIP 10”

“However, I do realise that you will be delighted by the trigger being pulled today, so I wish you well.
We can both empathise with each other’s positions, while disagreeing as to them!”

Thanks for that, Indeed we can.

I have to admit that i am very happy today, as promised where iive the sun came out just as Mrs May finished her statement, a good omen. It’s going to be a very interesting few years and hopefully both of us will still be around to see how things go.

For a change the poll shows a 1% increase in conservative vote share. Labour down 1, UKIP down 2%. would not vote and dont know each up 1%. So the largest group remains the combined WNV and DK at 32%, and a slightly increased lead for them over the conservatives. The poll shows another uptick in those unhappy with all parties.

I see the score is 44% right to leave the EU/ 43% wrong to leave. I think that is a slight narrowing of the leave majority. All the economic questions seem to have turned to slightly more negative expectations of Brexit.

There would appear to be increased polarisation in that the number of 2015 conservatives thinking it was right to leave is lower than the number of conservatives now thinking leave is right., whereas for labour the proportion of ‘wrong to leave’ has similarly increased.

It seems that a party seeking leave voters might consider adopting some these policy approaches to increase support: it seems natural territory for UKIP.

I am unsurprised at those results because it always appeared to me that Brexit fell into the 1960’s “reactionary” group of policies it should seem realistic that they should support a 1960’s “reactionary” as opposed to “liberal” policy agenda.

I was rather heartened by the the response of the EU parliament. As they represent the jihadi wing of the punishment squad their demands were not unreasonable as the high water mark of a negotiating position.

However, the uk ought to insist that in order to make negotiations worthwhile the EU parliament ought to appoint a “troika” to not only participate in negotiations but to be able to agree on behalf of the Parliament and bind the same. Otherewise there is the prospect of 2 years negotiations only for the EU parliament to throw it out.

“We understand that there will be consequences for the UK of leaving the EU. We know that we will lose influence over the rules that affect the European economy. We know that UK companies that trade with the EU will have to align with rules agreed by institutions of which we are no longer a part, just as we do in other overseas markets. We accept that,”

I think this is going to be a significant area. Quite where the boundary of the rules and regulations will sit is going to be important, and strikes at the heart of how the ‘getting rid of red tape’ brigade will view the deal.

With currently fully integrated economies, the EU will be keen to ensure no future disadvantage by ensuring that the UK keeps to standards that affect industry beyond the basic product criteria – like employment and environmental legislation. This would probably meet with poll approval from many remainers.

However, if this means that the UK is locked into any future EU standards imposed in a wide range of areas, with some form of supranational enforcement (which I’m sure the EU would require) and no input (other than paying a fee) towards the drafting of those standards, many leave voters might wonder what was the point of leaving.

I’m sure that now will be looked upon as the zenith of Tory support. Over the next two years we will see a lot of arguing and disagreements as Brexit grinds down to a war of attrition between the UK government and the EU. The trouble with attrition warfare is that the big guy normally has the edge – it doesn’t bode well for May and her lot.

Knowing that you are as big a critic of EU’s continuing pretence that its economies are “converging” , whilst imposing monetary ( but not fiscal) union , and seeing fiscal imbalances wreak social havoc ; I presume this was a typo.

You probably meant “integrated trade”.

But of course the failure to complete any semblance of integration in trade in Services ( 70% of EU’s GDP) , continues to help analysts like this ask difficult questions about the very existence of Single Market Membership advantages:

AN made an interesting point on tv this morning about the putative EU “punishment to show leaving hurts” agenda.:-

This is an organisation facing security & defence issues on its eastern border; a USA administration that doesn’t understand it & doesn’t care if it exists or not ; and a southern border besieged & breached by millions fleeing the ME & Africa.

Do they need to make life difficult for a UK Brexiting away from that lot-or persuade UK that helping them would be useful?

“Well-you could try saying-his data is flawed for these reasons…………..
That might be more convincing”

It’s easy to pick and choose data to prove a point. Conversely it’s also quite easy to pick data to prove an opposite point. The trouble with looking solely at data is that you miss the bigger picture.

“I disagree”

Well you would, wouldn’t you. And this is where the bigger picture comes in, which is that Britain is, has been and always will be, part of Europe. Thus leaving the EU will be like erecting a moat around us, separating us from the very nations that we need to interact with the most.

I think the LDs would be delighted by that performance in 2020, they’d likely win quite of lot of the lost seats back. Slow steady improvements in a solid support base is how they got to where there were in 2010, enabling Clegg to make a deal for a ministerial car.

But the slow rise in Lib Dem support accelerated last summer. You need to adjust your graph!

Admittedly, it has slowed a bit again recently. As usual, wait and see in the next poll, and the next, and the next……… as we poll-watchers do. It seems that UKIP are genuinely in the doldrums though for obvious reasons.

Are we allowed to question the weighting methodology of this poll?
In Scotland the weighted numbers for Labour and Tory are 35 and 22 respectively. Surely this needs revisiting!

Scotland still way ahead of everywhere else in Britain on intention to vote, and, unsurprisingly, not at all convinced about Theresa May.

Pace, Colin: May has not judged the mood in Scotland at all. Without Ruth Davidson to tub thump for her (and a very good job she does too, rallying the unionist troops) May would be very isolated north of the Border, Even as things stand it’s a long way to go before the next General Election and if the proposed changes to Parliamentary boundaries go ahead it is possible that there will be neither Labour nor Tory MPs from this poor, benighted land.
:-)

ROBIN
@AC
“I think the LDs would be delighted by that performance in 2020, they’d likely win quite of lot of the lost seats back. Slow steady improvements in a solid support base is how they got to where there were in 2010, enabling Clegg to make a deal for a ministerial car”
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It’s not quite as simple as that. Let’s say the LibDems poll, I feel quite charitable so let’s round them up to 16%, in 2020 then yes on the face of it they have doubled their share of the vote since 2015 but there are huge caveats here.

Will their vote be evenly spread throughout the country which would mean very little progress on the number of seats if their vote is thinly spread or if indeed their vote has held up and centred in former strongholds such as the SW, then any progress here might be diluted by the stronger Tory vote from 2015!

Looking at the cross breaks for the rest of the South which includes the SW, the Tories are polling 54% to the Lib/Dems 15%. I’m not so sure if the Tories win that sort of % in 2020 there will be anything left for the Lib/Dems to pick up, even in the SW.

The Lib/Dems may pick up something in London where they are polling around 18% but that’s probably about it..

Of course, I’m only using this current poll for my hypothesis and as we all know things can and probably will change by 2020.

@” Thus leaving the EU will be like erecting a moat around us, separating us from the very nations that we need to interact with the most.”

Nonsense-pure hyperbole.
We won’t be leaving Europe-we will co-operate on lots of things. We have a shared culture. There will be exchange of tourists -still. All that French food, Italian Art, Spanish sun, etc etc etc.
We just won’t be involved in never ending conferences & summits on pretendy political union.

I mean one day-they will have to do it properly-One Treasury, One Government , One Parliament -then we would have been out anyway…………………I’m joking of course-they know those pesky voters won’t let them-its fudge all the way for them.

I’m sure that the LibDems will exceed their expected performance as measured by popular vote – by quite a margin I would think. This is because of tactical voting by EU remainers who are not LibDem supporters.

Much depends on how Brexit pans out, but if it doesn’t go well then I expect strong suppport growing for the LibDems. At present people are closing ranks behind the government as May is still in the ‘give her a chance’ territory. Let’s wait the two years.

Allan Christie
“But the slow rise in Lib Dem support accelerated last summer. You need to adjust your graph!”

“Admittedly, it has slowed a bit again recently. As usual, wait and see in the next poll, and the next, and the next……… as we poll-watchers do. It seems that UKIP are genuinely in the doldrums though for obvious reasons”
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I was only commenting on this poll. As I’ve said before I mostly comment on a poll by poll basis then wait for the big polling yins to publish an average polling chart which currently has the Lib/Dems on 10.1% since May 2015. So on that basis, this poll is pretty in line with the Lib/Dem average.

It will be interesting to see the polling average for the Lib/Dems in the next few months to see if they have improved on their current average of 10/1% .

TANCRED
@ALLAN CHRISTIE
I’m sure that the LibDems will exceed their expected performance as measured by popular vote – by quite a margin I would think. This is because of tactical voting by EU remainers who are not LibDem supporters.

Much depends on how Brexit pans out, but if it doesn’t go well then I expect strong suppport growing for the LibDems. At present people are closing ranks behind the government as May is still in the ‘give her a chance’ territory. Let’s wait the two year.
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Yes – I was thinking about standards and regs specifically – thanks for helping make that clear.

Also, you say – “May has got one helluva task ahead. Daunting.But this Poll shows that she has judged the public mood quite well, engendering solid support for her attempt to pull this off. And she knows too that there is no credible political opposition to face whilst she tries to do so.”

This made me think of something I pondered when the parliamentary debate on A50 was working through.

May has certainly played a good hand, but this has been through her ‘Brexit means Brexit’ phase. Now, there are distinct signs of a softening, as she tried to slowly deflate expectations. Will her poll support hold as firm once leavers realise that she knew all along that many compromises were needed?

Where this fits with my thoughts on the parliamentary process was that perhaps you are right – she isn’t frightened by the Labour opposition.

When she fought hard against giving parliament a meaningful vote before the treaty was finalised, insisting only on a ‘take it or leave it’ vote and thus daring the HoC to carry us out without a deal, maybe she wasn’t thinking of Labour – but of her own side?

Maybe her worry was the hard core Brexiters that she knew all along she would have to disappoint?

Many thanks for the reference to the new Civitas report by Michael Burrage. Taken with the fact that EU trade as percentage of our total trade is declining steadily there is clearly a strong economic case for leaving the single market.

On the question of Political reasons for staying in the EU I personally cannot think of any so we are in agreement.

JIMJAM
Resr assured my wife and I always wife leave the restaurant properly, and always pay, but not £60b.

“Nonsense-pure hyperbole.
We won’t be leaving Europe-we will co-operate on lots of things. We have a shared culture. There will be exchange of tourists -still. All that French food, Italian Art, Spanish sun, etc etc etc.”

This is what a lot of leavers think but we can’t go back to the 1960s. The modern world is a very different place, a much more integrated series of power blocks. Leavers are deluding themselves if they think that the clock can be turned back. The next two years will demonstrate that, for sure.

“Maybe her worry was the hard core Brexiters that she knew all along she would have to disappoint?”

Of course there will be compromises, thats how negotiations work, but provided we take back control of our borders and leave the single market and customs union, achieve a reasonable deal and don’t still have to pay the EU large sums of money I cannot see the “hard line Brexitiers” revolt you seem to expect.

“It’s easy to pick and choose data to prove a point. Conversely it’s also quite easy to pick data to prove an opposite point. The trouble with looking solely at data is that you miss the bigger picture.”

———-

No, it’s easy to cherry pick data to create the ILLUSION you proved summat or other.

But for two opposing things to actually both be true at the same time takes us into Schrödinger’s Cat territory.

You’d have the devil of a job proving, for example, that the earth is both flat and round, or that 13 is a prime number and it isn’t, etc.

The whole point of proof is to establish which of two or more things is correct.

(Of course, though unlikely given the complexity, if in this case it happened to be the case both leaving or staying in the EU were on balance equally good, or bad, then it couldn’t be established which was more correct,, but then why pick a side and argue over it…)

Congratulations you have summed up exactly what one of the main issues is with the EU. Politics of a federal Europe above economics, employment, youth unemployment etc. For some that is a good thing, like you, for others, its a bad thing.