EPA Emission Regulation Surveys 6/12/14

Magellan Strategies today released eight statewide surveys measuring voter opinion of the newly proposed EPA carbon emissions regulation, as well as how information about the proposal impacts voter opinion.

The findings are based on automated surveys of likely 2014 general election voters in Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana and North Carolina. The surveys were fielded from June 4th to June 8th, and the margin of error for the surveys range from +/- 3.45% to 3.65% at the 95% confidence level. The surveys measured voter opinion of the newly proposed EPA carbon emissions regulation, as well as how information about the proposal impacts voter opinion.

Project Summary

The eight states for this research project were chosen for two reasons. First, they are all coal states (i.e. significant producers and/or consumers); voters within these states are much more sensitive to the potential economic impacts of EPA regulations than voters in other states. These voters have a greater concern for and understanding of the impacts within their state and local economies than typically found among adults polled in nationwide surveys. The second reason these eight states were chosen is they all have competitive US Senate elections this year, where the proposed EPA regulation is expected to be an issue this election cycle. The relevant question for political observers is to what extent the proposed EPA regulation helps or harms a US Senate candidate. These surveys attempt to shed some light on that question.

Survey Conclusions

Although there are differences in voter opinion about the EPA regulatory proposal on a state-by-state basis, it is clear that any candidate who supports the proposal is taking a risk among likely 2014 election voters. The introduction of this carbon emission regulation by the Obama Administration does not make this election cycle any easier for the Democrat candidates and incumbents in these eight states, and in some cases makes it more difficult for them.

Below is the survey summary, press release and survey toplines and tabs for each state surveyed.