RF's Financial News

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Remember when GM put cars
on the road that they KNEW had faulty ignition switches.The ignition switch only cost $1 to fix, but
if it failed could turn your car off causing: no power, no airbags, no brakes,
etc.GM knew that they had a
problem, but they kept selling cars, and did not institute a recall.The confirmed deaths range from 129 to over
300.The bottom line is that people died
in cars produced with a KNOWN defect.Clarence
Ditlow (Exec. Dir. for the Center for Auto Safety) said: "GM killed over 100 people by knowingly
putting a defective ignition switch into over 1 million vehicles. Yet no one from GM went to jail, or was even
charged with criminal homicide.GM (since
1966) has paid millions of dollars to keep criminal penalties out of the
Vehicle Safety Act. Today, GM officials
walk off scot-free while their customers are 6 feet under."The GM fine was $900M, no criminal penalty,
and a promise to do better next time.

On Monday, Fortune
magazine reported that Thomas Lund (one of
the highest ranking former officials of Fannie Mae) settled charges brought by
the SEC back in 2011 that he helped deceive Fannie Mae’s shareholders in the
run-up to the financial crisis. The
suit claimed that Mr. Lund, who was the head of Fannie's single-family
division, helped hide more than $100B of subprime exposure from Fannie's
shareholders – allowing it to continue to back more and more risky loans.According to the prosecution, “Thanks to Mr.
Lund's chicanery, the bubble in mortgage finance caught investors unaware. This resulted in losses of at least $8 Trillion
in the U.S. stock market alone.”Arguably,
in September 2008, this brought the entire financial industry (and the world
economy) to the edge of collapse – not to mention millions of people losing
their homes.Mr. Lund's penalty for his role: a
mere $10,000. What's more, the
penalty will not be considered a fine, but rather a "gift to the U.S. government."And let’s not forget that the government had to bail out Fannie
and still controls it.

So, GM killed people – and
received a $900M fine and a slap on the wrist. Fannie Mae defrauded umpteen thousands of people
out of their homes, ruined their lives, and helped create the greatest financial
meltdown in 75 years – and received a $10K
dollar fine and a slap on the wrist.

Now enter
Volkswagen. VW is one of the largest automakers on earth. The U.S. would like to fine VW $18B for
knowingly allowing the car’s software to say that it was producing less carbon emissions
than it actually was. They did not kill
anyone.They did not swindle nations out
of trillions of dollars. They openly
lied about their carbon amounts, and for that will be ‘darn near’ bankrupt. Why is the U.S. pouncing on VW so hard?First, the ‘powers that be’ (including the
Pope) have been pushing the danger of global warming on us for more than 15
years. According to them, global warming
is the single biggest threat of all time, and they stand fully ready to
regulate, tax, and make us conform to the carbon credit market. Secondly, the U.S. expects all nations to do
as we tell them without question, and if they don't – bad things will happen to
them: Libya, Saddam, Syria, Russia, etc.

The U.S. has been having
an issue with certain aspects of Germany for a long time: from NSA spying to asking
us to return their gold.Germany was
vocal about not liking our Russian sanctions, and was opposed to the QE
programs of the ECU.And VW had plans to
build a massive all-electric car plant in China. They were
going to spend 22B Euro's in China, making 15 different, electric car models –
cheaper, faster, better and rechargable faster than the Tesla. Do
you really think that the U.S. was going to miss an opportunity to shut down the
expansion of a Chinese/German business?

I also find it interesting
that the VW news broke just two days after the ‘Russia Insider’ newspaper
declared that Germany was ditching its ‘Anti-Putin’ campaign and welcomed
Russia’s help in Syria to end the war, and with the refugee issue.Now don't get me wrong, VW did indeed lie and
break the rules. However, does the $18B punishment
really fit the crime?

The Market:

On Thursday evening, Janet
Yellen gave a speech at the University of Massachusetts where she (at the end
of her talk) almost appeared to have suffered a stroke.I was hoping that this was an inflection
moment, and she would have an epiphany – look into the crowd and say: “Forget
all the crap I just said. We're stealing your money, giving it to the banksters,
and there's nothing you can do about it." I would have actually
applauded a move so bold, but unfortunately it didn't happen.

Instead, she spoke as if
the most recent FOMC ‘no rate hike’ decision didn’t happen.This message was designed to tell the stock
market that this next rate hike would be a ‘one and done’, and any return to
‘normalization’ was off the table.She
then said: “The lowest the FOMC can
feasibly push the real federal funds rate is essentially the negative value of
the inflation rate. As a result, the
Federal Reserve has less room to ease monetary policy when inflation is very
low.This limitation is a potentially
serious problem because severe downturns such as the Great Recession may require pushing real interest rates far
below zero for an extended period to restore full employment at a
satisfactory pace."So, she’s going
to raise rates IF she doesn’t have to push rates NEGATIVE to save the world?

-Presumably to
prevent a government shutdown, Speaker Boehner announced his resignation.

-The UN appointed
Saudi Arabia to head their human rights council. Saudi Arabia (the nation with the most beheadings)
celebrated their new status by announcing the crucifixion of a teen because he
mocked the king.

-And then there’s
the biotech slime-ball that increased the price of his drug from $13 a pill to
over $700 a pill. Given he’s an X-Jim
Cramer student and an X-Hedge Fund manager, I’m guessing he made a small fortune
shorting the biotech sector this week.

Bottom line? The
wheels are close to coming off. Ten
major markets are effectively crashing.World alliances are changing.Since 2008, the nations of the world have cut their interest rates over
550 times.Events are coming at us fast
and furious: from China's market melting down to the commodity implosion, from
the transport sector declining to the shipping rates collapsing. So
please be careful out there.

For those of you looking
to ‘short the market’ via ETF’s – consider the following:

-The S&P
short is the SH. The SDS double shorts it,
and the SPXU is the triple short.

-The financial
sector triple short is FAZ.

-The RWM shorts
the small caps. The TZA triple shorts
them.

-The PSQ shorts the
NASDAQ. The QID is the double short, and
the SQQ is the triple short.

TIPS:

-INDU 16,314: We could
be getting ready for a bounce up to the 16,600 – 16,800 range again

-NDX 4221: A
strong move this week into 4,300 could trigger a follow-thru to 4,400 next
week. Apple could be a catalyst for this
move by releasing any early iPhone sales numbers.

-SPX 1931: Watch the 1960 level to see if we can rally into
that zone. The VIX rallied into the
close so all bets are off for Monday morning.

-RUT 1122: The Russell has been under-performing the
rest of the market and that remains a concern. We need to see some real broad based strength
in this index, and a solid move to 1160.

-The Biotechs (on
Friday) had their largest decline in the past 7 years.

-Hedge funds are
the ‘shortest’ they’ve been in the past 4 years.

-Because we’re
coming into earnings season, I think the chance of going up exceeds that of any
additional downward pressure.

Recommendations:

-SPY – Sell an Iron Condor – Nov @ 166 / 168 to 207 / 209,

-REN – Long-term buy on this small oil stock priced @ $0.50,

-OAS – Long-term buy on this small oil stock priced @ $11,

-If we lose 1913
on the S&P, I'll start scaling into some SDS. The first level of support on the S&P
would be at 1913. Below that it would be
1867 and then 1800. On the upside, if
the S&P gets over 1995, we’ll be headed for 2033.

-If the DXD gets
over 24.14, it will be time to start shorting the DOW.

-If the FAZ gets
over 13.40, it will be time to start shorting the financials.

I’m currently light – but did
begin some buying this week:

-ADBE – SOLD –
Iron Condor – Oct @ 75 / 77.5 to 90 / 92.5,

-GOOGL – BUY –
Call Debit Spread – Oct @ 705 / 715,

oBUY – Call Debit Spread – Oct @ 650 / 660,

oBUY – Call Debit Spread – Oct @ 680 / 690,

-LL – SOLD – Iron
Condor – Oct @ 12 / 13 to 18 / 19,

-NFLX – BUY –
Calls – Oct @ 100,

oBUY – Calls – Oct @ 105,

oBUY – Calls – Oct @ 110,

oBUY – Calls – Oct @ 120,

-RUT – BUY –
Butterfly – Nov @ 1080 / 1160 / 1230,

-SPX:

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1915 / 1920 to 2005 /
2010,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct2 @ 1850 / 1855 to 2015 /
2020,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct2 @ 1895 / 1900 to 2060 / 2065,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct @ 1894 / 1900 to 2025 /
2030,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1800 / 1805 to 2050 /
2055,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1825 / 1830 to 2070 / 2075,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1880 / 1885 to 2120 / 2125,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct5 @ 1860 / 1865 to 2090 /
2095,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct5 @ 1780 / 1785 to 2070 /
2075,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Nov1 @ 1850 / 1855 to 2085 / 2090.

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts
and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:

Expressed thoughts proffered within
the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of
noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources
and those he interviews. You
can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>
.

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at:
<rfc@culbertsons.com>
to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be
reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference
<rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual
stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a
Twitter follower - "taylorpamm"
is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action -
teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he
gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

Views expressed are provided for
information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer,
an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of,
or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are
not registered and licensed brokers. This
message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is
intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute
an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice
can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering
document. Past performance
is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important
disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not
an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF
Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF
FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN
INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING
HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT
SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF
INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS
MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance
can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or
her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have
total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single
advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of
diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary
market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is
expected to develop.

All material presented herein is
believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions
expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or
the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

Sunday, September 20, 2015

“Recent global economic developments may restrain activity, and are
likely to put further downward pressure on inflation.”

Dear Ms. Yellen:

With that
single sentence you said: ‘We are not going to raise rates, regardless of how
great we tell you the U.S. economy is’.And what I heard was: ‘The economic data that you’re releasing is solely
there to make me feel good’.In reality,
your actions clearly tell me that the economy it is NOT as great as you have lead
me to believe.

Yes Ms.
Yellen, both you and the President have thrown strong U.S. economic data in my
face for years: GDP improving 2.3%, U3 Unemployment 5.1%, and 0% Inflation.This has led me to believe that the U.S.
economy was roaring back, and stronger than ever.Your marketing plan worked like a charm.But now you’re telling me: ‘April Fools –
this economy isn’t even strong enough to raise interest rates by a measly 0.25%’.

So I am to assume
that if you removed ALL of the FED’s monetary accommodation (including your
ongoing bond and MBS buying and let rates float) that our economy would go
right down the toilet – yes? So the fundamental
reality is that your monetary policy and your direct participation in the
financial markets (coupled with allowing leverage to expand) are the primary
factors improving the economic data. And
by removing those elements, this economy suddenly stinks like 5-day old fish.

Ms. Yellen, I think your press
conference was one of the purest examples of outright lying and deception I've
seen in a long time. The good news is
that the world was watching.I think you
and the rest of the FED have lost every ounce of credibility you may have had,
and were exposed as public shills to the stock market.All of the press corps left that room with
the same feeling: ‘Janet Yellen has been lying to us for months’. You
had your shot, and you took a pass.

All of this new talk about
raising rates in October or December is now just pure speculation – just what
you claimed you were trying to avoid via FED ‘transparency’.In fact, one of your members actually predicts
that in the next year interest rates will go ‘negative’.So we have gone from raising rates to: negative
rates, more QE, bail-in's, forced Treasury note buying, and retirement account
seizures – all in the blink of an eye.The
Bank of International Settlements (to which you belong), reported this week that
‘you engineered the bubble, and therefore you will also engineer the upcoming
crash.’

I can hear your next
speech now.You should start with: “Come
with me if you want to live.”You should
end with: “I’ll be back.”And what I
will remember is: “Hasta la vista, baby.”

The Market:

We are experiencing the death
of an era.We’ve seen the rise of
China's manufacturing economy, and a tech era that took us from dial up Internet
connections to fiber optics to cars that drive themselves.Not to be outdone, we’ve seen the world’s central
banks create money and contort monetary policy in order to smooth-out business
cycles.Even our business leaders were successful
in convincing gullible Americans that off-shoring and sending manufacturing to
China, Vietnam, Mexico, and Pakistan was good for us because they could do the
labor and we would be the brains.

Now that we’re seeing the
world dipping into recession (Canada was the latest to report 2 negative GDP
quarters in a row), we are shouldered with too many resources, factories, and people.
Banks are shackled with too much toxic paper, and over $70 TRILLION worth of questionable
derivatives.

Factually:

-The OECD cut its
2015 global growth forecast to 3%. It
expects Chinese growth to slow from 7.4% in 2014 to 6.7% in 2015.

-Inflation across
the Eurozone weakened to 0.1% in August.

-Standard &
Poor’s lowered its credit rating on Japan.

-Hewlett
Packard is laying-off 30,000 workers, and offshoring more of it’s engineering.

-FedEx
(after missing earnings estimates) announced that it will be raising its rates
by 5% in January.

-Industrial
production fell worse than expected – with auto parts seeing their largest drop
since 2011.

-But
the news that woke me up was GE’s Jeff Immelt (the ‘Chair’ of President Obama's
Council on Jobs and Competitiveness) announced that GE will begin shipping more
jobs overseas.

As you can tell by now,
the world is running on empty. Everywhere you look, economies are either
failing, or being propped up by life support. I don't for a minute think
that this is some kind of ‘buy on the hip’ philosophy.This is a structural change we're facing, total
exhaustion, a period that has ‘run its course’.I tend to think that we're staring down the barrel of a long, protracted
economic fade, and that no matter what they throw at it, it has to find its equilibrium
– and that will be a painful process.

Until our FED comes out
with their next scheme to try and prop up our economy – the ‘top’ is in.We are starting to move sideways and down. Yes, we will bounce, but then we will fade
away again – each time a bit lower.

How can I be sure? Because Ms. Yellen didn’t raise rates.She didn't even continue the propaganda that
the ‘U.S. alone is strong enough to begin rate normalization’. Now, when people look at the Empire State
Manufacturing Report coming in at MINUS 15, or the Philly Fed reporting a MINUS
6, they will start to understand that the recovery is indeed nothing more than illusion.
I suggest that investors will be more
critical of company earnings, and begin to question some of the abject fraud erroneously
labeled as ‘aggressive accounting procedures’. Investors were okay with the fraud as long as
the FED was on board.Now, they won't be
so inclined.

Volatility will ‘rule the
roost’. Banksters want asset prices
rising so they can create even more toxic derivatives using fictionalized assets
as collateral. Investors are beginning
to fear that the FED can't make it happen any more. The upcoming ‘tug-of-war’ will be impressive
to say the least. I think it's prudent to learn about inverse ETF's,
going short, and how to purchase put options – if you haven't done so already!

TIPS:

In terms of Indexes:

-DOW - 16,385: We
broke thru and closed below our 16,400 support level – so I’m showing 16,200 as
the floor for the coming week. Once bond
yields rise in the fall – the equity markets will again be the place for
capital – but next week is still touch-n-go.

-NDX – 4,827: We’re
at short-term support,
with 4,200 as a broader low support area. This index is extremely volatile so expect
action.

-SPX – 1,958: We
are returning to the days of a high volatility range bound market between 1,920
and 2,000.

-RUT – 1,163: Of
all of the indices, the Russell is the measure for the broadest flow of
capital. The Russell looks relatively STRONG compared to the other
indices, and actually long-term bullish. A drop to 1,160 is possible and then a run
higher to the end of the week.

Recommendations:

-Goldman Sachs (GS): SOLD SEPT $192.5 / 195 Call Credit Spread

-American Express (AXP): SELL Call Credit Spread

-Tesla (TSLA): SOLD 237.5 / 240 Put Credit Spread

-Amazon (AMZN): SELL Put Credit
Spread

-REN – Long-term buy on this small oil stock priced @ $0.50

-OAS – Long-term buy on this small oil stock priced @ $11

I’m currently a little light – but holding:

-RUT – SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct 1090 / 1100 to 1250 / 1260,

-SPX:

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1895 / 1900 to 2055 / 2060,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1905 / 1910 to 2055 / 2060,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1915 / 1920 to 2170 / 2175,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1925 / 1930 to 2170 / 2175,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct2 @ 1850 / 1855 to 2060 / 2065,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct2 @ 1895 / 1900 to 2060 / 2065,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1825 / 1830 to 2070 / 2075,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1880 / 1885 to 2120 / 2125,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Oct5 @ 1860 / 1865 to 2200 / 2205,

oSOLD – Iron Condor – Nov1 @ 1850 / 1855 to 2085 / 2090.

To
follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com
to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

Please
be safe out there!

Disclaimer:

Expressed
thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly
economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author,
R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews. You can learn more and get your free
subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please
write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any
reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in
complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If
you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts -
please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If
you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel
free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

Views
expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be
construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and
is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other
firms or associations. Mr.
Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information
that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or
entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any
alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied
by a prospectus or similar offering document. Past performance is not indicative of
future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end
of each article.

Note:
Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents
only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST
RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER
VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE
INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT
TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES,
AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN
ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative
investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a
substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund
and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts;
the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could
mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no
secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and
none is expected to develop.

All
material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to
its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior
notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any
funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

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