2015 Measles Outbreak

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Projected Cases for Different Vaccination Rates

These scenario projections were modeled using a serial interval of 14 days, a basic reproductive number of 15, and an MMR vaccination effectiveness rate of 95%. Effective reproductive number was calculated using these three initial parameters under 5 different vaccination scenarios. Projected incidence was modeled via the IDEA (Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment) method; the decay factor was estimated using real data from the ongoing 2015 Disneyland measles outbreak.