Thursday, 30 October 2008

Update - linking the Democratic campaigns

A very interesting update to the observation we made yesterday on how the various Democratic campaigns were linking together in this election. Perhaps I was a little hard on Kay Hagan...

1) The fact that John McCain took public campaign finance means that there are very strict rules about how the different campaign committees are allowed link together - and with activists obviously at a premium, it is easy to see where that vast majority of volunteers want to put their time: with Obama.

2) North Carolina is a state that has historically voted Democratic at State level - by distancing themselves very consciously from the Presidential campaigns. Even with Bill Clinton, the kind of local level Democratic support that appeared on stage with Obama at yesterday's Raleigh rally (some 30+ local representatives) was unheard of in the State in any previous General Election. In fact, the joint literature going out at the moment is the first time such a Democratic campaign has been run in the State's history. Everyone wants a piece of the Obama magic...

3) ...Far from riding on Obama's coattails, however, Kay Hagan (Democratic Senate candidate) polls very well in a very different Democratic constituency - rural voters - and is actually improving Obama's numbers outside of NC's urban areas.

It will be interesting to see how it pans out... FiveThirtyEight has the polls incredibly tight (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-raleigh-north-carolina.html#comments\)