Tuesday, January 1, 2013

8 For '13: Commodities ETFs For 2013

New York, Jan.1, hot stock picks .- With 2012 in the books, it is fair to say it was a mixed year for commodities exchange-traded products. Due to the European sovereign debt crisis, slowing growth and demand in the emerging world and persistent concerns about the U.S. recovery, commodities were an "on again, off again" asset class in 2012.

With no plan to avert the fiscal cliff in place, but ample signs that the Chinese economy is recovering, 2013 could be another mixed bag for commodities ETFs and ETNs. Here are the commodities plays to keep an eye on in the new year. In no particular order.

iPath DJ-UBS Cotton TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: BAL[FREE Stock Trend Analysis]) How the mighty have fallen. BAL was flirting with $120 in early 2011, but the ETN will head into early 2013 below $50. That caps a dour run that saw BAL plunge almost 13 percent in 2012 as cotton futures were hammered due to a supply glut.

Arguably, the worst for cotton futures is already priced in. However, what may not be priced in is an expected 11 percent decline in production for the 2013 marketing season, Barron's reported.

Farmers devoting less acreage to cotton should help BAL from the supply side, but increased demand is what the ETN really needs to move higher in 2013. The U.S. is a major cotton exporter, but cotton demand, as is the case with so many other commodities, is held hostage by China. China has recently stepped back into the cotton market in a significant way, but BAL could be supported by increased imports by other major cotton consumers such as Turkey.

iPath DJ-UBS Coffee TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: JO) Like BAL, JO was doomed by a 2012 supply glut, but this one was far worse. JO plunged nearly 43 percent as arabica coffee futures tumbled 37 percent making coffee one of the worst-performing soft commodities in 2012. Improved supplies from Brazil, which grows about one-third of the world's coffee, and Vietnam have also weighed on prices.

Like cotton, coffee closed 2012 well off its 2011 average price. With Brazil forecasting a sizable coffee crop and soft commodities under significant pressure, JO's 2013 upside could be limited to sporadic technical bounces.

Guggenheim Timber ETF (NYSE: CUT) If the Guggenheim Timber ETF is to be viewed as a play on a recovering U.S. housing market, which the ETF has been deemed in the past, then this fund was a disappointment in 2012. CUT gained 23.6 percent, but that is peanuts compared to the 78.1 percent returned by the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund (NYSE: ITB).

There are several key factors to remember about CUT and they can give investors some feel for how the ETF will perform in the new year. First, timber futures have historically been as an inflation hedge, but CUT is an equity-based fund, not a futures play. Second, CUT's exposure to the U.S. housing market is somewhat limited because U.S. stocks account for less than 38 percent of this ETF's weight.

Finally, CUT is home to paper stocks such as Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) and International Paper (NYSE: IP) and that diminishes the fund's housing exposure as well. All that said, CUT's mixed geographic and sub-sector lineup does make the fund a direct avenue for playing a global economic recovery. A move to $21 could represent a new breakout for this ETF.

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) It would be almost impossible to build this list without GLD, the world's second-largest ETF by assets. Despite a 2.1 percent drop in December, gold futures rose about seven percent in 2012, extending the yellow metal's winning streak to 12 years.

Gold has its detractors and that group would likely point to one or all of three reasons why 2013 could be the year the gold bubble finally bursts. Some would say that gold's failure to take out its 2011 highs around $1,900 an ounce is a bearish sign. Some might argue that the sheer length of the metal's annual streak is getting long in the tooth. Others might note that gold futures and ETFs closed 2012 well below the highs notched leading up to the Federal Reserve's third quantitative easing announcement in September.

Of course, global central banks are running the printing presses hot and heavy and that should be supportive of gold in 2013. Gold is coming off a good year in 2012, but traders expected more. With that in mind, either Chinese and Indian demand and/or safe-haven buying to start 2013 will have to work in gold's favor or the winning streak could prove vulnerable.

iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) Silver prices and SLV itself enjoyed solid 2012 performances, though silver bulls may be left with a bad taste in their mouths because SLV was trading around $34 in October only to close the year barely above $29.

A frequent battle cry of silver bulls is that half of silver demand comes from industrial consumers and that should support the white metal in a global economic recovery. However, that factoid is often not enough to get silver past its reputation as one of the market's most manipulated commodities. That is to say what silver gives, it can take that away and more in breathtaking fashion.

The Fed's plans to pump $45 billion in Treasuries into the monetary system on a monthly basis starting in January can be seen as a boon to silver prices because of the potential inflationary pressures monetary easing builds.

Additionally, the gold/silver ratio is currently in the area of 55:1, meaning it takes 55 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. That is well above the historical norm of 16:1, but some analysts are saying two years of depressed silver prices relative to gold represents a buying opportunity.

Some of the most bullish assessments of silver call for prices doubling, tripling or even quadrupling from current levels. Anything is possible, but do not bet on that level of price appreciation in 2013. A move by SLV into the $40s is not out of the realm of possibility, a move to the $60s much less so.

ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (NYSE: PALL) Often treated as an afterthought relative to gold, silver and platinum, palladium is coming off a decent 2012 in which PALL added just over seven percent. Questions concerning palladium's 2013 are actually quite easy to answer.

First, it must be noted that the metal is an essential ingredient in the production of catalytic converters for automobiles produced in China and the U.S., the world's two largest auto markets. That means global auto demand must remain robust in order to brighten palladium's prospects.

Second, there is an international component to palladium production that makes the metal highly volatile. Russia, which is rarely forthright about its palladium output and stocks, is the world's largest producer of the metal. South Africa, which traders learned in 2012 is vulnerable to labor strife, is the second-largest palladium producer.

An ideal scenario for palladium bulls would be for Russian and South African headlines to be quiet in 2013 because production news out of those countries often leads to increased volatility on both sides of the palladium trade. In a perfect world, auto demand would lift the metal. Beyond international risks and auto demand, the big question surrounding palladium is how much of the expected 2013 shortfall is already priced in?

iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: JJC) Copper futures jumped 6.1 percent in 2012 and closed at their highest levels in two weeks during the New Years Eve trading session. Perhaps more than any other metal, Dr. Copper's price action is driven by an 800-pound gorilla known as China. The good news for copper bulls is that the recent spate of economic data out of the world's second-largest economy indicates a turnaround is in the works.

There is some risk to the long copper/JJC thesis. For starters, China has been accused of stockpiling copper, leading some observers to believe the country's copper consumption is not as high as copper bulls would like to believe. Even if conspiracy theories are found to be untrue, there is no debating that 2013 will be the first year in four that copper output outpaces demand.

United States 12 Month Oil Fund (NYSE: USL) The United States 12 Month Oil Fund differs from its more popular counterpart, the United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) in that USL tracks a basket of 12 months of West Texas Intermediate futures contracts while USO tracks the front month contract. What may sound like a slight difference to those not familiar with oil trading is actually quite significant. In 2012, USL lost 8.8 percent, but USO was off 12.4 percent.

That says USL is the better bet for the less active trader and for those looking to avoid the potential for increased volatility at the hands of contango. As for what USL, USO and related fare might have in store in 2013, the International Energy Agency recently increased its 2013 demand outlook by 110,000 barrels per day to 90.5 million barrels per day.

Oil could be a vexing proposition for investors in 2013. On one hand, China's economy is recovering and demand there could slightly increase. However, if the U.S. goes over the fiscal cliff and into another recession, oil prices and ETFs like USL will be repudiated. It is simple math. Even if China's November consumption level of 10.5 million barrels per day remained constant through the year, that is still a far cry from the roughly 19 million barrels per day the U.S. consumes.

Remember this about oil futures ETFs: Oil futures themselves were lower by 7.1 percent in 2012, but USL, USO and the PowerShares DB Oil ETF (NYSE: DBO) all lost more than that.

Bogle wrote a letter to the editor. Here's an excerpt: Citing Benjamin Graham as the first "hedged fund" operator is an especially unfortunate example. "The trick," Mr. Rice writes, was Graham's "clever way to make money . . . whether it [the market] continued to rise, or started to fall." ...

One of my pet peeves is the way that insiders -- whether corporate CEOs, hedge fund managers, or elected politicos -- capture compensation (or credit) for normal cyclical gains they had little or nothing to do with.

This is the approach favored by the Crony Capitalists — those people pretending to be free market participants, and who merely pretend to be creating value. They are taking credit for structural successes that would have occurred with or without them. What they are actually doing is capturing value, not creating it — and then transferring it from its true owners (shareholders/investors) to themselves.

This is wrong; it is legalized theft.

If you want to see a good example of how CEOs transfer shareholder wealth to themselves, a good place to start is Roger Lowenstein’s 2004 book, Origins of the Crash: The Great Bubble and Its Undoing. The section on CEO compensation is astounding; these guys were essentially getting wildly overcompensated for being CEOs during a bull market. The prime example was the CEO of Heinz, who gave himself (with the tacit approval of his Board ofCrony Directors) a $90 million bonus. And this was back in the early 1990s, when $90 million was real money.

Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs Asset Management announced that it would launch a new mutual fund that — apparently — will bring the joy of hedge fund investing to the masses. For as little as $1,000, the Multi-Manager Alternatives Fund (GMAMX) allows mom-and-pop investors to put their life savings into some of Wall Street’s riskiest and most expensive products. This “fund of funds” will, according to its prospectus, let investors gain exposure to the trading strategies of hedge funds...

Big public pension funds reaped strong returns from their hedge fund portfolios in 2012, with most of them handily surpassing their own benchmarks and well-used industry indexes. The hedge fund portfolios, for the most part, achieved close to what chief investment officers wanted, despite a 1,500-basis-point difference between the best and worst performers, according toPensions & Investments' analysis of the returns of 19 hedge fund portfolios from 17 U.S. public retirement plans with aggregate hedge fund assets of $60.7 billion.

Something must be in the water over at 399 Park Avenue, where Daniel Loeb's hedge fund Third Point is headquartered. His Third Point Ultra fund has already gained 12.42 percent this year through the 13th of March, according to data from HSBC’s Private Bank.

The portfolio added 3.3 percent alone between March 1 and March 13. By comparison, hedge funds have returned about 4 percent year-to-date, according to HSBC.

The roughly $1.7 billion Ultra portfolio is a levered version of the firm’s flagship Offshore fund, which manages about $5.7 billion and has gained 8.5 percent over the same period. ...

After taking a cursory look at the recent 13-Fs filed by hedge funds, it became apparent that hedge funds were scaling back their exposures to gold. George Soros was among the big names that unloaded his position. According to Goldman Sachs' new Hedge Fund Trend Monitor report, hedge funds in aggregate scaled back big time.

Despite low turnover, hedge funds notably reduced holdings of underperforming long-time favorites Apple and gold while raising allocations to rallying Financials. For the first time in three years AAPL was not the top stock in our VIP list, instead ranking as the third most frequent top-10 holding... Continue to read.

10 Publicly Traded Hedge Funds That Pay a DividendInvesting in publicly traded hedge funds is a great way for an investor to see returns through capital appreciation and dividend payments in the financial sector. When it comes to investing, many think of the process as a choice between growth and value stocks; you’re either taking on risk in search of capital appreciation, or you’re seeking out stable sources of current income through dividend payments. Luckily, Wall Street has many investment options and investors don’t have to make a clear-cut choice between capital gains and dividends. There are a lot of misunderstandings about dividend stocks out there; make sure you’re investing for the right reasons, check out 5 Common Misconceptions About Dividend Investing.... Continue.

Hedge Funds Love These 3 Outperforming Semiconductor Stocks ...Do you like to follow the buying trends of smart money investors? We ran a screen to find semiconductor stocks currently in favor by hedge fund managers. We began by screening the semiconductor industry for stocks that are rallying above their 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating that these stocks have strong upward momentum.We then screened for those with bullish sentiment from institutional investors, with significant net institutional purchases over the last quarter representing at least 5% of share float.... Continue.

10 REITs Absolutely Adored By Hedge FundsAfter identifying the most popular stocks among hedge funds (see our full Top 10 here) according to their third-quarter 13F filings, we have decided to break down the top 10 REIT stocks that hedge funds love. The REIT industry, notably specialized REITs in hospitality and healthcare, should see positive growth from a rise in job growth and expansion due to freeing up of the credit markets. Our list includes 400 hedge funds and prominent investors that are required by the SEC to disclose their public equity holdings quarterly. In descending order, we have outlined the most-loved REIT stocks based on the aggregate number of funds owning each....Continue.

Apple Stock Hit by Panic Selling: 'Someone Yelled Fire'(Yahoo) Forget the "fiscal cliff." The real panic on Wall Street is over Apple's stock. Nearly every mutual and hedge fund has piled into Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) during its spectacular rise over the past few years. Now, these same funds are scrambling for the exits as the stock goes through an equally spectacular decline. Apple plunged to a six-month low Thursday as funds rushed to take profits on the stock before it's too late. Shares are now off 25 percent since late September-shortly after the iPhone 5 launch and a month before the iPad Mini introduction. The stock, once up 74 percent on the year, is still up 30 percent for 2012. That's why Wall Street is getting out while it can....

Billionaire George Soros’s Latest Stock Picks (InsiderMonkey) George Soros is best known for the fortune he made shorting the British pound in 1992, but he currently invests a considerable amount of money in equities and so is required to report many of his long positions in 13F filings. We’ve gone through the 13F for the third quarter of the year and compared Soros’s holdings at the end of September to three months earlier. Read on for our impression of his moves and compare them to what he's bought and sold before. AIG. American International Group, Inc. (NYSE::AIG) became Soros’s largest 13F equity holding during the third quarter with a position of over 15 million shares being reported in the filing. A number of value investors have been getting into the insurer over the course of the year, and at a P/B ratio of 0.5 it certainly looks cheap compared to the book value of its equity. We also like its earnings multiples- it trades at 9 times forward earnings estimates- and revenue was up strongly in the third quarter compared to the same period in 2011. Fellow billionaire Dan Loeb had initiated a position during the second quarter of 2012 and we think that it still looks like a good buy for investors....

Duke Energy CEO Jim Rogers still facing issues as tough year nears an end (BizJournals) In late 2011, Jim Rogers seemed almost golden. He was about to close his last big merger deal. He was poised to take a corporate chairmanship tailored to his penchants for energy policy and reshaping the utility-business model. He was ready to bask in the spotlight of a national convention he’d helped bring to Charlotte. But by late 2012, it’s evident things have not gone so well. “It has been a year of challenges,” the Duke Energy Corp. chief executive concedes. “Nothing in life is perfect.” Dan Fogel, associate director of the Wake Forest University Business School’s Center for Energy, ...

Argo unveils emerging markets hedge fund (InvestmentWeek) Argo Group has launched an emerging markets hedge fund investing in bonds and currencies from a universe of over 40 emerging market countries. The Argo Local Markets fund aims to hold between 20 and 30 positions and has been launched with an initial $7m of seed capital. It will offer investors weekly liquidity and has a mandate to take on moderate leverage. Argo chief executive Kyriakos Rialas said: "The case for investing in emerging markets is compelling....

Argentina's President Is Making Great Political Theater Out Of Paul Singer Seizing The Country's Naval Ship(BusinessInsider) Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is turning her feud with hedge fund manager Paul Singer into a political rallying cry in Argentina. The President has refused to pay Singer's firm Elliott Management the $1.3 billion it owes the fund after it defaulted in 2010. de Kirchner says it's because Singer was given multiple chances (in 2005 and 2010) to restructure, like other hedge funds did, and take a haircut to recoup at least a portion of their losses. Singer, needless to say, did not. Instead, he decided to capture one of Argentina's naval vessels as collateral, and got Ghana to give him an order to detain the ARA Libertad last month....

Tom Steyer New InvestmentsFARALLON CAPITAL Hedge fund billionaire into politics (DailyDemocrat) Hedge-fund billionaire Tom Steyer staked millions of his own money to take on big oil and then to close a corporate-tax loophole costing California $1billion a year -- and won both times. Ever heard of him? Don't worry, you will. With his latest behind-the-scenes win at the polls as the man who stared down big business by standing up for Proposition 39, this Stanford MBA and top Obama fundraiser has become an out-of-nowhere big-time political player in California. So what does Tom Steyer want now? "I am an enormous lover of California and to the extent that I see something wrong, I will be involved in trying to fix it," Steyer, 55, said Monday. "What form that takes, I don't have a fixed idea."...

Hedge Fund News: David Tepper Value ...Billionaire David Tepper's Latest Stock Picks (InsiderMonkey) Appaloosa Management is a value hedge fund managed by billionaire David Tepper (whose name might sound familiar to any recent attendees of Carnegie Mellon’s Tepper School of Business). The fund has an estimated $16 billion under management. We have gone through Appaloosa’s 13F for the third quarter of 2012 and picked out... Continue to read.

This Hedge Fund Returned Nearly 25% Last Quarter Artis Capital Management was a top performing hedge fund during the third quarter. Coming in with the fourth best Q3 performance, the fund’s picks had a weighted average return of 25.5% during the first half of the year, and returned 24.6% for the third quarter, boosting the fund’s year to date performance to 56.4%. Artis Capital was founded in 2001 and is a San Francisco-based hedge fund with a focus on public technology companies.... Read more.

More ETFs Play Hedge Fund CopycatWhat if you could emulate the actions of the most successful hedge fund managers for a fraction of what they cost? Two ETFs that debuted this summer are trying to do that by using public filings to replicate their portfolios. And a third, which launched early this month, promises to add another hedge fund dimension to ETF copycats by adopting what its sponsor calls the only true market-neutral strategy in the lot. Researchers have been trying to emulate hedge fund strategies since the 1990s ... Read more

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BMW and Pininfarina are two of the most tradition-swathed names in the motoring world. Each is a byword for cutting-edge technology, style, dynamics and aesthetics. With the BMW Pininfarina Gran Lusso Coupé, the two

time-honoured companies are unveiling the outcome of their first collaboration at the Concorso d’Eleganza Villa d’Este 2013. The BMW Pininfarina Gran Lusso Coupé is a one-off and represents the exclusive interpretation of a luxurious BMW Coupé as seen through the eyes of Pininfarina.

The precious metals have been weak again in May with gold falling 4.4% despite this weeks’ recovery. Silver is down 7% and platinum by 2.6%. Palladium has recovered from recent weakness and those who accumulated on weakness are set for the best month since November after it surged 6.6% in May.

Weakness in gold and silver is leading to robust demand internationally as store of value buyers accumulate gold and silver on this dip. This is particularly the case in Asia where premiums remain robust and supply demand imbalances remain. ...

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The future of work is the work itself, not where and when the work takes place. Workplace flexibility programs are already catching on and will soon become standardized as more millennials enter the workplace. All workers, not just millennials,want freedom and flexibility and some are even quitting their jobs to becoming freelancers in order to gain that freedom. oDesk.com has 3.3 million registered freelancers, and Intuit predicts that by 2020, 40% of Americans will be freelancers. When it comes to working from home, 13.4 million people (9.4% of all American workers) work from home at least one day per week compared to just 9.2 million in 1997 according to one Census Bureau.

Russia is funding research into powering its airplanes with solar energy. The airline industry is being hurt by high fuel prices, and solar-powered planes would not only be cheaper but also would remove a major source of carbon pollution that contributes to global warming.

Investors have picked over the ETF universe in search of any kind of yield in an extremely low-rate market for bonds. As a result, ETFs tracking many traditional high-yield sectors have been bid up to expensive levels, but there are still places investors can go for income without paying nosebleed valuations. “Unfortunately, valuations [for dividends, high-yield junk bonds, MLPs, and REITs] are approaching sky high levels in many instances as more investors fall in love with these products ... Continue.

U.S. manufacturing growth picked up in March as new orders increased and hiring quickened, closing out the best quarter for the sector in two years, a survey showed on Monday. Financial data firm Markit said its U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 54.6 last month from 54.3 in February. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Output increased, though the rate of growth slipped to 56.6 from 57.3 in February...