Election Confusion

Like it or not, the Elections of 2008 are closer than we think, and we have less time than we think to choose the next President and Congress of the United States of America. Because so much is
at stake, such as the makeup of the Supreme Court (and there has been an
undeniable change there), we have to shake ourselves out of all weariness,
pessimism, indifference or cynicism, and get to work on informing ourselves
about the process and the candidates.

For the first time since 1928, neither an incumbent president nor an incumbent
vice president is running for his party s nomination. This election, for both
parties, is an open contest. An ABC poll revealed that 65% of Americans said,
back in February, that they were already "following closely" the Presidential
race.

The large number of states holding early primary elections could compress the
nomination campaign season down to just a few weeks long. In the 2000 election
cycle, by early February only about 2% of nominating convention delegates had
been selected. However 2008 will see over 40% of the delegates chosen by early
February. In fact, February 5 is being called "Super Duper" (or "Tsunami")
Tuesday. We will very likely know the Presidential nominees by the end of that
day.

Between now and then, therefore, how do we figure out what candidate to back in
the primary elections?

Obviously, the positions of both the candidate and his or her party have to be
examined closely. (See www.votinginfo.org
for more information.) Some positions, like support for abortion, contradict the
meaning of public service so profoundly that, from a moral dimension, they
disqualify a candidate.

Among candidates who have generally acceptable positions, one needs to consider
a number of other factors. What is the "electability" of the candidate; that is,
how much momentum, money, and manpower does the candidate have to wage his or
her campaign? How is the candidate doing in the polls, particularly polls among
likely voters, and polls that match the candidate against likely opponents?

Another important question is what kinds of issues, positions, or
characteristics of the candidate will be likely to either attract or repel
voters who may not be thinking of the same issues that we find important.

In addition, what kind of coalitions can the candidate build? How does the
candidate appeal to various segments of the population - such as Hispanics and
Blacks, for example? In what states does the candidate have strength? There are
certain combinations of key states that are critical to winning a Presidential
race, and candidates need to be evaluated on their ability to carry those
states.