I’ll say Andy Murray needed that win more than Roger Federer, but in the end it was the Swiss fighting through when it counted the most. Credit to Federer who beat the Scot 3-6, 6-3, 6-1 in the round robin stage of the London ATP World Finals. The win also clinched the year-end No. 1 ranking for the Swiss.

“It means a lot to have returned to No. 1 and to finish the year again at No. 1,” said Federer. “It was an incredible year for me both on the court and off the court and to be able to break the all-time Grand Slam record and finish the year on top is amazing.”

After a scratchy start Murray seized the upper hand cruising to a first set 6-3 courtesy of a bundle of Federer miscues. But Federer promptly tightened his game turning those errors into winners and relocating his absent first serve. The defensive-minded Murray was left as spectator as Federer ran away with the match.

“These best of three set matches are tough, especially when the best players play each other,” said Federer who improves to 4 wins in 10 tries vs Murray with two straight wins. “Whoever has the momentum, he can swing freely. The other guy has to be careful. That’s why the beginning of sets are crucial. Of course, I had my doubts I was going to come through after having lost so many times in three sets against him. It feels good, but more than that, I think this is more the night to celebrate No. 1 than celebrate the victory over Andy really.”

For Federer the No. 1 ranking was at stake, and he got it done today, but it wasn’t do or die. Federer was all but a lock to secure it after No. 2 Rafael Nadal lost his opening match. Federer also has pocketed plenty of big titles and a win here would be satisfying conclusion to an outstanding year, but a loss won’t keep him up at night during the off season.

I don’t think the same can be said for Murray. The talented Murray has wins over Federer, Nadal, Novak Djokovic and seemingly everyone else who matters, but he just doesn’t have them on a big stage like the Grand Slams or at an event like this in his backyard. And that weight of expectations of him performing and winning on the biggest stages is only going to grow.

“I didn’t play well and I made mistakes,” said Murray who hit eight double faults. “It’s difficult against him, if you miss so many first serves then you put yourself under a lot of pressure. Maybe I made more mistakes than normal, but I just didn’t play well.”

This was a real statement match for Murray and he all but blew it. Fortunately in a round robin format Andy’s still in the title hunt, and a second encounter with Federer may loom Sunday.

In the earlier match Juan Martin Del Potro survived a veritable gagfest with Fernando Verdasco turning away the Spaniard 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(1). DelPo now gets a tasty showdown with Federer on Friday, while Verdasco will hang on to his slim hopes of qualifying against Murray.

Tomorrow, Nadal meets Nikolay Davydenko and Djokovic is dealt Robin Soderling. Davy matches up well with Rafa and we know the Spaniard isn’t in full flight. But I’m picking Nadal. And I think Djokovic wins a tough one with the Swede.

If Federer continues his great play, it’ll be hard to beat me and even harder for me to root against him. But this will be a good test for me, to try and continue rooting for Djokovic despite Fed’s awesome play. I’m being kinda selfish here but what the hay, tennis is for our entertainment, isn’t it?

I actually think Davydenko is gonna win because of confidence. After the Djoker match, he said he was upset he lost because he played well and then he said he’s pretty confident going in against Nadal having beaten him recently. He’s also talking about reaching the semis, something you don’t hear him do too often. Anyways, the Soderling-Djokovic match is kinda of a toss up for me. Soderling looked pretty confident against Nadal and he’s gotta be upset about that loss in Paris. Djokovic could potentially do what he did in Paris, let Sod play his way up then down and just stay with him and take his chances when he needs to. Or he could come out slow and possibly lose. Or he could come out ready to pwn. Either way, I think it’ll depend on Djokovic more than Soderling. I hope Djoker wins but I’m nervous. Sod is the only who hasn’t dropped a set. And this guy is the alternate? Great stuff.

“If you give someone (the) opportunity to dictate, not only on his own service games, but on yours, it’s very difficult to win,” said Murray, who had eight double-faults in the match. “I served so poorly that anyone would have looked good against me tonight.” – Murray

Really -___-
He can’t give credit to the world number 1, 15 time slam champion. This is why I don’t like Murray. There, I said it, I’ve made up my mind, I don’t like Andy Murray.

I had said yesterday in the previous thread – Murray is overrated. Djoke is much better.

As for Murray ending his career without a slam? If Murray doesn’t win one in 2010, that will be a real possibility. Players winning their first slam after 22/23 years of age is rather rare. And most of those have been in older times or at the French.

Now I am curious about DelPo versus Fed. I think Fed should get his revenge, but DelPo has a lot of weapons…

If Davy beats Nadal again, its going to be a real disaster for him. For all the talk about Nadal being such a great player, he has been miserable in the year-end championships every single year he has played – there are no “soft” matches no, no “mercy” draws, and Nadal really gets exposed on these fast courts against top 10 players.

My prediction? Djokovic takes over the No 1 ranking next year, if Fed loses it. Remember, Djoke is a damn good clay court player too, unlike Murray. There’s more uncertainly about DelPo.

1) Will he have a sophmore slump the way Djokovic did after winning his first slam (2009 has been kinda of an ‘eh’ year for Djoker)?

2) Was his loss to Hewitt just a blip or does he need to work on his grass game?

The thing you gotta like about Del Potro is that he’s also good on all surfaces. He reached his first slam semi at the FO, after all. Plus he’s gotten to the QFs of AO and won the USO. Let’s assume, for just a minute, that Nadal and Federer are out of the equation. Unless Murray figures out how to succeed on clay, the number 1 spot will be a battle between Del Po and Djoker. But for all this talk about about Djoker being the next number 1, what about Federer? As of right now, I’m gonna hold off discussing Nadal because I’m not really sure what’s going on with him. I think he’ll either continue declining or get back to his old super self, Nadal isn’t really a player who will just stagnate for a long period of time, he’s gotta go in some direction. So back to Federer, when, where, how, why is he gonna lose the number 1 ranking? Honestly I hate to say it but he’s still in the midst of his prime. He’s in great shape, still motivated (somehow) and still winning the big ones. If Federer keeps bringing out his A game, Djokovic and Del Potro won’t be able to do much. Their A games could maybe beat an A- Federer, but how often will that match up occur? Federer is showing he’s still hungry and both Djokovic and Del Potro have several parts of their games they need to improve before they start beating Federer often enough to take over his ranking.

I agree, Federer’s “A” game is unbeatable, except by Nadal’s “A” game on clay.

However, Fed is gonna be 29 this year. His true “A” game is gone. Or least he can’t sustain it for 5 sets each over 7 matches. In contrast, Nadal is 5 years younger, Djoke and Murray are 6 years younger, and DelPo is 7 years younger. That Fed is able to withstand the onslaught so far is just amazing, but at some point, age is gonna give. Will it be 2010? Hard to say. But Fed’s peak was 2006, not 2009….

I never said anything about Federer’s peak, I said he’s still in his prime. Maybe the dictionary definition is the same but they’re different to me. Peak is the highest and best level a player can reach and it’s usually really short, a year or 2, sometimes 3. A player’s prime is when he is still in top physical shape and he’s still able to play his best if not as often as before. In Federer’s case, he’s still in his prime years, still the guy to beat, and still a force AND a favorite at the majors.

Reagrding whether or not Federer will still win slams, let’s put it this way: This year he wasn’t at his best all the time yet he reached all slam finals, and the two finals that he lost were 5-setters. So if next year isn’t as good as this year, he’ll still probably make it to two slam finals, at least.

The fact that he’s not only keeping up with his MUCH younger rivals, he’s actually beating them convincingly is a testament to who and what he is: THE GOAT.

Nadal hit an amazing peak last year. So amazing in fact that when I watch him play right now it’s almost like watching somebody else. Do you guy remember RG 2008? The guy was simply unplayable. It was almost scary how good he was at that tournament.

I’m sorry but I just don’t see how he can regain that sort of form again. Nadal’s game is not as big a Federer’s. Federer owns everyshot in the game, while Rafa is more limited (everybody is limited compared to Fed). Fed can change tactics, Rafa can’t, coz ever since he burst on the scene Rafa has always had one tactic: run after everything, hit the forehand and backhand as hard as I can, be agressive when I can. That’s Rafa’s game right there. I bet right now you’re thinking that’s a rather simplistic view of how Nadal plays tennis, or else how did he improve so much from 2005 to 2008? Simple really, he just got better at those three things I mentioned: His movement got better, his groundies got stronger, he became a more agressive by standing closer to the baseline and trying to come forward. But it’s still the same game he’s had since forever. When one of those three pillars is struggling, Rafa loses the kind of form that made him no.1 one day. Right now his movement is off, his groundies aren’t as powerful and he’s forced into being defensive because of that. That’s what has got his game crippled right now. I don’t see how he can get all these things back.

Kimo, I agree with 99.9% of your 3:30am post. The thing is, right now, he’s a very questionable number 2. I’m not saying he doesn’t deserve it, but at this very moment, I don’t think anyone can say Nadal is the second best player in the world. It’s not about regaining the unbeatable form of 2008, it’s about regaining the world number 2 form of 05-07.

federer’s best year so far was 2009.Ask him same and you’ll se he thinks the same thing.He made the outstanding double RG+WIM so for me it’s his best year (not to mention other 2 finals lost in 5 sets and not to mention his win over nadal in his hometown)Plus federer doesnt have a physical play he’s more on the softly -technical side si i’m sure he won’t have “the age thing” in the next 2 or 3 years.

Regarding ranking points – I still don’t get it. Nadal has no davis cup points to defend from last year’s final – he did not play last years final. He has a total of 80 davis cup ranking points, and those are from a tie earlier this year. So he can definitely (and he probably will since its on clay) earn another 150 points in early December.

Sean, could you throw some light on it, since your post is about the No 1 ranking?

If Federer wins another couple of slams in the next couple of years – even the most ardent critics of Federer will have to accept that he is the GOAT.

‘Fed is Goat’, ‘iam it’ & ‘Kimmi’ had some interesting discussions & analysis of Nadal’s path to No.1 many days ago before London kicked off. From that, I gathered that Nadal can only add 40 points from Davis cup. Something to do with if Rafa wins all his matches in DC, then the points replace Monte-Carlo as a 500event. His Monte-Carlo points (180) are already being counted, so should Rafa win DC(220) then the difference between DC & MC is 40, which willl be added to his ranking points. Only one of either DC or MC can be counted for Rafa, but not both coz his other 500events already have more than 220 points.

So even if Fed doesn’t progress any further, Rafa cannot end the year as no1 even if he wins everything else in London to gains a full 1300.

devastatingdjokovic says:
“Was his loss to Hewitt just a blip or does he need to work on his grass game?” re: Del Potro.

Definitely the latter. He just has to work on it…very low bounce on grass, combined with Del.P’s poor footwork means that grass is his natural enemy. Of the giants, I see Cilic having the best chance on grass…and maybe Karlovic if he fires extreme aces throughout the tournament! lol

dd,
re. my post yesterday. i apologise if i was overly harsh. several of your previous posts on that thread sounded aggresive, and i responded to that. but it’s probably just a question of writing style and perception.

FiG, I answered your query regarding the rankings earlier, but it’s stuck in moderation probably due to the links. Hopefully this one works. Put ‘http://’ before ‘www’ to be sure. Apologies to all for the double post it re-appears later on.

———————————————————————–

‘Fed is Goat’, ‘iam it’ & ‘Kimmi’ had some interesting discussions & analysis of Nadal’s path to No.1 many days ago before London kicked off. From that, I gathered that Nadal can only add 40 points from Davis cup. Something to do with if Rafa wins all his matches in DC, then the points replace Monte-Carlo as a 500event. His Monte-Carlo points (180) are already being counted, so should Rafa win DC(220) then the difference between DC & MC is 40, which willl be added to his ranking points. Only one of either DC or MC can be counted for Rafa, but not both coz his other 500events already have more than 220 points.

So even if Fed doesn’t progress any further, Rafa cannot end the year as no1 even if he wins everything else in London to gains a full 1300.

You can follow the background of all this from this thread:
(www.tennis-x.com/xblog/2009-11-12/2641.php/comment-page-2#comment-107249)

As Nadal played Monte Carlo as his 4th 500 series tourney, DC will replace Beijing poinbts if he wins it for his country. Beijing has 180 points, and the max he can add with DC will be 220 points (more 140 pts for 2 wins, he doesn’t get 150, which would be 75 for each victory because he didn’t play the last tie). So he can add a total of 40 points with DC: 80 (right now) + 140 (winning both his ties) – 180 (beijing).

This way even if Federer doesn’t win a single match anymore (finishing with 10550 pts) and Nadal wins all his 4 matches adding 1300 points and wins DC (finishing with 10545 pts) he would be short by 5 points from Federer.

I just notice somthing weird in Federer’s profile at ATP site. There it shows “-” points for Washington tourney as if Fed had commited to play and didn’t show up. I never heard of this, not even in his schedule.

Must be frustrating to be a fan of Murray’s. His “push” defensive tennis game only can take his so far. He was never a true #2. Nadal could not defend pts at Wimbledon. Only reason Murray reached #2 in the first place. As soon as Nadal was back, BOOM – Murray back to 3 or 4 (where he belongs).

All 3 – Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic can transition to offense when needed. One reason why they all have won grand slams. Murray’s game, while consistent, still lacks offensive fire power during big moments in matches. His finesse style shots break down and errors creep in. Too much thinking. Just hit the ball and be bold and confident.

I think that Murray has a great potential.
He is talented, he has a reale good touch but he has choose a completely wrong coach.

It all begin when he won a few match against the ‘FedEx’. His defensive play has granted him some wins but they have learned to manage it.

He is not Nadal. He is not ‘The best of what he do’. Throwing the ball on the other side of the net is not e enough. I like the old-style Murray. Aggressive and with the will of control over the match.

Djoker is the one who can, at the moment, sit on the throne with Rafa and Federer.

Federer said after his loss to Murray in Dubai 2008 that Murray was too defensive – and everyone started criticising Federer! Now fed has been proved right. Nearly 18 months later, Murray has yet to win a slam, while Federer has won three more since then (and been in 3 other finals!).

Murray needs to shed his extreme arrogance. Djokovic did that and it has shown results.

Also watch out for Cilic next year. If he boosts his mental side up a notch, he is another player with lots of weapons and atheleticism. And he is young.

Not good news for Nadal…..

I had said this earlier also – not every record get broken, or broken soon. Look at Margaret Court’s 24 singles slams set in 1974. Steffi came close at 22, but it seems unlikely that that record will ever be broken, or at least anytime soon.

I think Federer winning 17 or 18 slams will be something like that on the men’s side….. I am sure Federer has that in mind. Whether he reaches there is an open question. Imagine Federer reaching 18 slams before Tiger Woods (Nicklaus has 18 in Golf!).

BTW, Tiger Woods has won 2 slams in the last 3 years. Agreed, he had knee surgery, but that takes away only one of those 3 years….

Nadal’s points can’t count towards his year end ranking for everyone who was asking:

The points accumulated in the four ties within the previous 52 weeks can become part of a player’s 500 category if:

1. Player has not more than three 500 results within the previous 52 weeks and Davis Cup result(s) is better than lowest best other.
2. Player has four 500 results within the previous 52 weeks and Davis Cup result(s) is better than the lowest 500. Also, 500 0-pointers cannot be replaced.

Nadal only has 3 500 results, but they are all better than 150 points.

as promised, i am here to congratulate federer achieving another milestone in his life, adding one more year to his history of year-end No. 1 ranking.
he has just been awarded the ATP award and he briefly spoke about how it all started at the Masters Cup, etc. Nice to reminisce history.

my hello to j., sar, duro, margot, DD, madmax, contador, Daniel, Skor, MMT, and all good ol’ regulars. i will be here for an hour and so this morning, and share a few things if you happen to be around.
Go Dj !

i think Gordo presented the scenarios of qualification to the knock-out round. i am not sure if he took into account the head-to-head matchup, which comes into play before the count of number of sets won/lost, if 2 players tie with 1-2 W/L.

i may have overlooked something because i did not have to master this. it appears that if murray and delPo tie, which is unlikely, murray advances because he beat delPo.

Dj gets double break point in the 3rd game, 1st set.
Sod saves the first with a big serve. Dj’s return go out.
Sod wins next 3 points with the same fashion.
Dj could not return any of the three serves and have a play.
Sod leads 2-1.

the pattern so far is Sod serving big an earning free points. whenever there is a rally, dj wins point. Sod has won only 1 or 2 points whenever there was rally.
dj is serving not that great. he holds, 2-2, but losing 2 points due to unforced errors.

by the 5th game, Sod is playing better groundies, with patience and controlled aggression.
He holds in love, 3-2.
errors have started creeping into Dj, despite playing safe, i.e. playing high percentage shots and not going deep.

With everyone exploring the “what if ” scenarios from the Djoker winning everything and Nadal losing everything, enabling him to replace the Spaniard as #2, to Nadal winning the rest of these matches and the Davis Cup and Fed not winning another match this year, placing Nadal 5 points behind Fed at year end, I thought I would post a much more likely scenario -

By not winning a set the other day Nadal is in real danger of not advancing, and his recent play makes me think that not only is he an underdog against Djokovic, but Davydenko may even be more than he can handle.

But lets say he wins one more round robin match but does not advance, yet he collects the maximum 40 points from the Davis Cup – this will give him 9445 points at year end.

Federer is back on a mission. Should he win the next round against Del Potro, the semi and then the final in London he will then have a whopping 11,750 points – 2,305 points ahead of Nadal, and at least that much against Djokovic, who under the above scenario could only get a maximum of 8,910 were he to lose to Federer in the London final.

If Federer should win the Barclay’s tournament he will have that confidence factor going. There is no reason to believe that he will not have another decent run at the Australian Open (he is currently 110 – 0 in Grand Slam matches prior to the semis, dating back 5 1/2 years) where he is defending runner-up points.

Meanwhile Nadal is defending the 2,000 points he received for winning the Australian Open.

If Djokovic wants to make his move he could very well be number 2 within 9 weeks, but I believe Federer is going to be holding onto the #1 spot at least until the US hard court season Masters begin in March.

Because Federer is only defending semi-final points in Doha, Indian Wells and Miami, and becasue he has 2 free tournaments to play where he can gain points without defending any he is poised for a long run at the top… should he win this tournament.

In his quest to be on top longer that any other #1 he is currently in 4th place – 10 weeks behind Jimmy Connors, 12 weeks behind Ivan Lendl and 30 weeks behind Pete Sampras. Overtaking Jimmy and Ivan is a real possibility.

6th game.
Sod is taking advantage of Dj’s cautious approach. Sod is more confident and going for his shots whenever he gets short balls.
in the long run, it may work in Dj’s benefit but not sure.
Two wild drop shots from Dj.
Dj looks shaky and is forced to deuce.
he holds, 3-3, barely avoiding a break point.

Sod is holding much more easily, a love game to go 4-3 (1st set), serving big and hitting powerful forehands.
Dj is committing too many easy errors and he looks uncertain at this point. His defense has not been that good so far.

9th game begins with Dj winning 1st point, but Sod replies with an ace, followed by another nonreturnable serve, but makes an error in next. Sod plays next 2 points sort of 1-2 punch. he holds by losing 2 points, 5-4.
Sod is looking dangerously good.

Hi i am it, bummer – Soderling just took the first set. I think he played just that little bit better in the first set – at least Djoko’s serve was getting a little better towards the end of the third set. Anyhow, I don’t have time to chat as I’m getting ready for work, but I just wanted to say “hi” and wish you well; I know you’re probably really happy about another Fed milestone. Hope all is going well with your work! :)

J., Dj has to go for his shots before Sod pulls trigger, but also he has to engage Sod in rallies, a delicate and tricky balance to achieve. like you said, if his serve continues to improve, he should do fine.

I see it’s Sod’s day today; I am not surprised as I think Dj’s season has been incredibly long, but especially this tail end of it, with 3 titles in 4 events. No excuses though; he should’ve still been able to push through this. But I am not as sad as I might be had he not come back up to great form near the end of this year.

OK, Gordo, i am gonna stop live-commentary, except maybe on crucial stage.
———
like right here,
3rd game, Dj faces a break point and cannot get his 1st serve in.
Dj gets broken with a poor volley. 1-2.
looks like Sod is gonna win in straight, make Dj look like the rafa of the other day.

Gordo- great point about Fed’s chances of remaining at #1.
He has 1500 points up at AO. I think we can safely assume he will keep 1000 of those. With a massive lead, and with Nadal and Djoke protecting a ton of clay points, Fed should definitely be safe till the spring, more likely till the French. Then HE will have a lot to defend- but he’s such a GS semifinal lock, that it just doesn’t feel quite as dangerous.

Watching a bit of this match I think is more good news for Fed fans: Soderling has legitimately become another major obstacle for Nadal and Djokovic (and maybe Murray?) but much less so for Fed. And let’s not forget, Roddick showed last year that HE is up for taking out Djokovic AND Murray.

So the H2Hs are breaking Fed’s way again: players who have a great shot at Fed are probably only the top 5. Players who can knock out those top 5 include not just each other, but Soderling, Roddick, Tsonga, Cilic, Monfils…
With Nadal slumping and Fed looking better against Murray, this could actually be setting up as a great year for Federer… of course, last year it seemed the opposite and look what happened. But, to be a partisan here, lets enjoy the thought.

(Although I really do hope Nadal gets back on form, as I LOVE the RIvalry).

On a different note, Fed was supposed to have cup cake draws with Soderling in the 4th round in wimbledon and the 3rd (?) in US open? I am sure lot of people would re-consider that view. Robin might have done real damage at these 2 events, if he had anyone other than Roger.

Poor Djokovic – this is a major collapse. If they wind up in a tie break to determine who advances Soderling will automatically get through – even if he loses the next match in straight sets he will be 4-2 and there would be no way two of Djokovic, Davydenko or Nadal could be ahead of him!

In an unlikely unpredicted scenario, ROBIN SODERLING qualifies FIRST among all eight players for the semis!!

Congrats to Sod. Ice-cold blood flowing in the veins. unbelievable. Djoko lost the plot. I really expected a competitive 2nd set, even though Sod seemed to be in control in the 1st set. He would have closed it in 6-4 had it not been for his poor net play.

Friday is the d-day for Djoko vs Rafa. Rafa gotta win in straights vs. Davy to give himself a better chance.

Gordo, “Poor Djokovic – this is a major collapse.”
That must be humiliating to go down like that without giving a fight, except it is strategical, which is just a fanciful conspiracy theory for a fan to console with.
Strategical: Save some energy today and play better against rafa.
but i don’t think anybody does that.

What a sorry showing for Djokovic in that 2nd set. His body ran out of gas. He doesn’t want this tournament. It shows. Maybe Nadal will sneak into the semis with a win over Daveydenko tonight and Djokovic in a couple days.

Maybe Djokovic should scale back on his schedule and save energy for big tourneys like this instead of hosting inconsequential tournaments in his home land.

What a disappointment he was today. Soderling is a good player and deserves the win but in no way has the talent of Djokovic. A strong rested Djokovic would have taken him down is straight sets.

“Novak needs to hire more people to his camp. Someone to help him handle the weight of being a favorite at an elite event.”

More people? I’m already embarrassed for him because of how many people he already has on his camp. I mean, sheesh, Federer has gone for years with no coach and only his immediate family (if they can make it) and his physio tranier in his box. Most of the time it’s just Mirka by his side. Djoko has him Mom, Dad, Vajda, Martin and three or four other people I don’t know who appafently help him with every aspect of his game. That’s too much advice if you ask me. He’s breaking down his game into too many separate components. Why can’t he just hire one coach for the entire package just like everybody else. His camp is almost like a tennis management consulting team. Tennis is not that complicated.

Cindy- no doubt Djoko’s schedule was too much this year. But it was even tougher because he went deep (Quarters at least) in pretty much everything he entered. Next year, he should rejig it, but it was useful this year to get him into shape and find his game again.

People should back off a bit though. I don’t think it was a dud match. The first set was very close. Only the second set did Sod run away with it. And Sod is a poweful force.

And we forget the thriller versus Davydenko? That was one of the best matches of the event so far imo. But of course it’s easy to forget because it was 2 days ago. Sheesh Sean. Novak can handle “elite events”. He just won the last masters.

Good for Soderling – quite often the alternate has a “happy to be included” attitude but this Swede is tearing through the field and yes – all those who said over the past year that Federer had the easy draw because Soderling was in his quarter or half should revisit that. Maybe the other players should be thankful that it was Federer and not them who were facing the Swede.

Soderling has already won $360,000 in London – his second biggest payday tournament after Roland Garros. If he wins his semi final match it WILL be his biggest payday.

As for the upcoming match – an in-form Davydenko against a tired looking Nadal on a hard surface?

Uh-oh!

Not only has Davydenko not lost to Nadal in their last 3 matches on a hard surface, Nadal has not won a set off of the Russian!

How ironic if the two #1s on January 1 of this year – Nestor/Zimonjic and Nadal both fail to get to the semi-finals of the year end tourney!

The Djokovic career is consistent in this exact way: flattering only to deceive. Just as soon as he gets his considerable talent harnessed to make some great showing by winning bi events, he inexplicably turns around with a dud effort which comes out of nowhere. The jury is still out on whether or not he has the mental requirements to reach and stay #1.

The scheduling would appear to have some merit, but you’d have to apply it to everyone in the Top 5. It makes sense those Top 5 guys would come to a year end event like this with a lot more tennis fatigue in their legs than someone like Soderling, who’s relatively fresh in comparison to the others. Federer and Murray had long 3 Setters her already – after having been through a very active year; Del Potro looks like his year of getting his first Major is still hampering him now; Davydenko and Nadal spent part of the year on the shelf with injuries and have had to find their way back. So maybe it’s not surprising to see a guy like Soderling do well when all the others are either fatigued now or have had to work their way back from the sidelines.

“That must be humiliating to go down like that without giving a fight, except it is strategical, which is just a fanciful conspiracy theory for a fan to console with.
Strategical: Save some energy today and play better against rafa.
but i don’t think anybody does that.”

Yeah, strategy, if it at all comes in to mind, would only come after qualifying for the semis…coz if Rafa straight-sets Davy tonight, then Djoko will be in real danger of going out ‘coz he’ll drop to position3. Sod on the other hand can afford to be ‘strategical’ against Davy on Friday if he thinks he would save energy for his semi. But only if push comes to shove…a man got his pride!

kinda fee sorry for davydenko – he’s the invisible man as always. he also has a good shot of beating nadal tonight.

looks like my thoughts of a fed/soderling final might be coming true. their last match at the US open was very interesting – fed destroyed him in the first 2 sets and then soderling came alive and almost forced a fifth.

Come nadal is time to shoot people’s mouths and beat davydenko tonight ..its funny to see how quickly people forgot that he holds 6 GS tittles …and just cause he is going through a tough slump ..a lot of people are saying that his career over..

True, but Soderling has also had his share of injuries in the 2nd half of the season, so also had to work his way back.He withdrew during a match in Legg Mason500 USO series due to elbow injury, & consequently pulled out of Rogers cup in Montreal masters. On returning to Cincinnatti, he was bundled out in rnd1, (possibly due to lack of match-practise, or still effects of elbow injury or simply outplayed). He then played in Davis Cup & Asia before his elbow injury flared up again which forced him to withdraw from Stolkhom250 where he was seeded#1..the same injury forced him to withdraw pull out of Valencia500.

My point is that he’s not as ‘fresh’ as might be thought ‘coz just from the USO series till noww, he’s had to withdraw 3 tournys and a retire in one due to the same injury. Same to Verdasco, he hasn’t gone through the surgery yet, but from time to time, his foot bothers him. All eight of them are in the same scenario, either tired, injured or working their way back after lay-off.

imo, only Djokovic can legitimately use the ‘tired’ excuse ‘coz he’s been in virtually all semis & finals after the USO break…and he’s not had to withdraw from tournaments through the year. He’s the only one who’s had a ‘full’ season, so to speak.

But a week’s break between Paris & London coupled with a day’s break in between 3set matches, is quite enough. These are after-all high calibre Olympic-level professional athletes who’s bodies are specifically trained & conditioned to deal with this sort of thing.

Djoko had a really bad day in the office. That’s all. I was surprised by how easily he gave up…or so it seems to me as the viewer. He did rise after Sod went up 2 breaks but it was too little too late ‘coz Sod also raised his game even further.

Hopefully, he’ll rise to the occasion on Friday. Somehow, he fights for every point against Rafa…it’s that thing that happens when anyone plays either Fed or Rafa….everyone wants a piece of a big scalp.

DD, what fatigue? He played a three setter two days ago. That’s almost like a straight set win in a major. I don’t see why he would be fatigued.

It wasn’t his fitness that let him down, it’s his state of mind. He started to look frustrated by the third game of the first set just because Soderling held serve twice. That’s just silly. If he wan’t to fulfill his potential he has to stay and focus and not let himself get bothered by stuff that isn’t that bothering.

I’m with you. Nadal can rebound. Nadal is mentally the strongest player on the planet. Both Daveydenko and Djokovic won Master’s titles recently. Nadal is over due. I’m still thinking Nadal will win the whole thing but Federer is still world #1. A fitting end to a great year for both players.

Federer will probably remain #1 until the FO or Wimbledon where he has 4000 total pts to defend and Nadal has 180. That will be crunch time for the 2010 campaign.

correction@ 1:01pm: “My point is that he’s not as ‘fresh’ as might be thought ‘coz just from the USO series till now”

More of, he’s possibly frash, but has also had his share of injuries thus also working his way back. Just like Rafa, he’s definitely fresh after a long summer hiatus, but still needs to build-up his game. Obviously, I’m not comparing Sod’s injury to Rafa, ‘coz Rafa’s was much more serious, but the fact is that the Sod too has had to withdraw from a couple of tournaments.

Maybe if Djokovic beats Nadal and gets another little boost, he’ll go on to win the title after all. Tennis fans are so quick to jump all over a player after 1 match. It’s like the previous 11 never happened.

Why the shock? Djokovic has virtualy zero high profile victories in his recent run. A pathetic Nadal, and a completely out of sorts Federer.

The only suprise to me is that he managed to beat Davydenko, or rather, Davydenko managed to lose it once again by falling apart.

Soderling would have clearly beaten Djokovic in Paris had the preassure not crippled him. Waterboy remains waterboy, this YEC is Fed’s it seems, noone is playing well enough apart from Soderling, who can beat anyone but Fed.

Nadal will beat the Russian choker tonight and set up a sweet match vs Djokovic on friday, to decide the future SF loser.

DD @1:18pm, true….but that is all part of the fun with tennis :) When it’s one of your favoured players on the receiving end of that 1 match, we defend even the indefensible & come up with all types of excuses…otherwise, dissect & psycho-analyse each racket swing & facial expression of the fallen opposition….& culminate with “he doesn’t play like before, he is finished!” lol…untill the next tournament where the vicious cycle begins again. I love/hate tennis!

You’re right that “records are made to be broken” is a cliche that doesn’t always hold true. In baseball, to give one example, there are records that no one even talks about (most wins by a pitcher to name one) because the idea of them ever being broken is completely absurd.

I think it’s possible Roger could set the bar so high in terms of Slam titles and Wimbledons won that the records may never be broken as well. But I think you’re setting the bar too low for Fed! 18? Try 20 or 21 if he’s really planning to play as long as he says he is.

“Just a quick question: Has it ever happend at the YEC that someone beats an opponent in the RR stage but loses to him in the final?”

Yes. Fed beat Nalbandian in 2005 TMC on RR but lost to him in finals. I came across it while checking the RR format. It was one where RR is best-pf-3 while finals a 5setter. It went all the way in the finals.

“You’re right that “records are made to be broken” is a cliche that doesn’t always hold true. In baseball, to give one example, there are records that no one even talks about (most wins by a pitcher to name one) because the idea of them ever being broken is completely absurd”

I agree, and there are such records in Tennis, for example, Jimmy Connor’s 108 (or is it 109?) titles. Not even THE FED with his incredible winning pace can match that.

I think it’s possible that by the time Fed is done playing that that Connors record you mention will be the only men’s tennis record still held by an American, unless you count total U.S. Championships won (open and amateur era). Bill Tilden and Richards Sears, I believe, each won 7 so that will not likely be “broken” by Fed, although he has a decent chance of tying it.

Expected tank in the second,after losing tight first set.It’s better to tank and try beating Nadal in straights,and be a little bit fresher for semis than playing another long 3 setter,and be totally spent against Fed or Murray when the real thing starts.But he could still go out if Davy wins both of his matches in straights,but it’s less likely.

But we’re so quick to write someone off after a loss. This is Djoko’s second loss in what 13 matches? Do people forget Fed lost in the first round in Paris?

After Nadal lost, people said his career is over; he’ll never get back to number 1.

After Murray lost, people said he’ll never win a slam, he’s too passive etc.

Now, after Djoko’s lost, people say he doesn’t have the mentality to reach number 1, he has too many coaches, etc, etc.

Come on! These guys ALL ROCK! Nadal will be winning again, so will Murray. All three of them will win at least another (or for Murray a first slam). Djoko has shown that he’s mentally focused. He’s just physically spent. I could see this loss coming a mile away! He was exhuasted in the final at the French. He’s won 3 of the last 4 events, and reached the semis of Shanghai and the USO and the final at Cincy. He’s taken virtually no time off. He was *bound* to lose.

And Soderling is an awesome indoor hardcourt player!

The season is too long. But players will have to adjust their schedules accordingly, and I hope to see both Nadal and Djoko schedule a bit differently next year.

Cindy_Brady Says:
>Federer will probably remain #1 until the FO or Wimbledon where
>he has 4000 total pts to defend and Nadal has 180. That will be
>crunch time for the 2010 campaign.

yes, but nadal is defending 4100 points from rome, monte carlo, indian wells, barcelona and madrid in that same time frame. this is, of course, in addition to the 2000 from the aussie open and 180 from the FO.

aside from the three slams, federer is defending 2260 points. so total for nadal 6280 and total for federer 7460. and right now, nadal looks moe vulnerable than federer.

First of all :Congratulations for all Fedfans”, as i have just said this young guys (so hipped up by journalist) are too emotional and inconsistent.
It´s surprising how people changes his comments about Roger,Where´s the UK. KING?Hope people will finish with the neverending critics about Roger. No doubt.
None of this guys will ever been the genious that Roger is or have his charisma.

jane: hi! Murray and Djko, bah! Sean put a hex on both I think. Yippee am off to O2 tomorrow, will see Andy and Fed, I guess, also going Friday afternoon so might see Djko too. Andy and Djko better win that’s all I can say! Will give you a wave. A friend has got us all tickets for the VIP box….oooer, I’ve gone all posh…never been in one of them b4…
kimmi: good for your Fed! At least you were pleased either way.
i am it: nice to see you, even if our time zones didn’t correspond.

Funny how every year when certain players lose in the fall, fans advise: He will have to adjust his schedule next year.

Guys, this is not the first year tennis has gone into November. This is not the first year as a pro for any of the top men on tour. They know the drill.
They chase money and points.
We will hear the same comments next year, guaranteed.

wwoowww..i really believe nadal shouldnt even play DC ..cause his confidence on court is gone…he needs a break..even if it is only for a month..the way he is playing right now is just lame ….horrible set..nadal looks so discourage. i think davy has a chance against soderling and novak should win easly against nadal unless he plays the way he did the last set against soderling..so would see what happens ..

Whoa, Nadal is lost out there. This is the worst he’s been beat on since, ummm, 2 months ago at the US Open. What the heck has happened to him? His first few tournaments after the injury he played really good- even with a stomach tear. He seems like he’s getting worse with each match. WTF, WTF?

nadal is not running like he used to ,not chasing every single point like it is the last one. his physic changed completely. his shots has no power ..he is on a horrible slump…and mentally well no confidence at all..even his forehand (which is his bread and butter) is shaky adding that he already has a weak serve..poor nadal ..i really feel for this kid..i gotta say it he got me watching tennis again ..i just got tired tired of watching roger win them all with no competition .. i hope nadal can regroup and start the 2010 season with a different mentality a wining mentality that is.

This first set is the lowest and most abysmal level at which Nadal has ever played tennis. I cannot recall worse than this. He cannot read opponent, cannot make the right selection of shot, cannot find range, serves miserably, and too slow to make a move to respond. It appears that suddenly he has forgotten to play tennis. It is unfortunate to lose match after match in straight sets. However, as Nadal has the history of making comebacks, it would be premature to forecast his future on hard court and in general. Davydenko’s straight set win over Nadal puts a huge burden on Djokovic to beat Nadal in straight set, and partially leaves Djokovic’s destiny at Soderling’s mercy. An interesting is unfolding in Group B.

@ contador “rafa is just fine mentally”
i dont think so ..he breaks serve and then he cant even hold his own serve making silly errors…vintage rafa never did that. every time he broke serve the set was pretty much won by him

Ah, pretty much the exact same scoreline as Djok’s match, except reversed. That makes total sense. Rafa often starts slow and works his way into a match; Djoko often starts well and can go off form as the match progresses.

Well, kudos to Soda and Davy for the upsets, although they aren’t shocking or anything… I could see either one of these two in the final.

I hope Novak can win his next match, but on the other hand, I feel sad that Rafa is just not playing his best right now.

sar I just saw your post; I don’t think it makes too much difference? I don’t really expect much here from Djoko. If he makes the semis I’ll be happy with that. Others were saying he’s the favorite, but I always said Fed/Murray were, and Djoko maybe third. Although I am starting to think Soda, or Davy!

Nadal’s a fighter, so he’ll give Djok a fight as been there mentioned. I don’t know what’ll happen at this point.

I am interested to see if JMDP can play Fed like at the USO? If so, that could be a great match. And even the Murray/Verdasco Valencia final wasn’t an easy win for Murray, so you never know what’ll happen there.

But as others have said, this is a very open event. Now I am beginning to think Murray, Fed and Soda are the top faves.

“Others were saying he’s (Djoko) the favorite, but I always said Fed/Murray were, and Djoko maybe third.”

jane, what I and others said was Djoko was the fave with the form coming in, but also there was a question, can he win it though ? Being the fave does not mean that you can always win.. though there is a great chance of doing just that. federer was a fave at US Open but did not win it..so is nadal at Roland garros.

WTF Rule 4.01
3) The final standings of each group shall be determined by the first of the following
methods that apply:

a) Greatest number of wins;

b) Greatest number of matches played;

c) Head-to-head results if only 2 players are tied,

d) If 3 players are tied, then:

i) If 3 players each have one win, a player having played less than all 3 matches is automatically eliminated and the player advancing to the single elimination competition is the winner of the match-up of the 2 players tied with 1-2 records; or

ii) Highest percentage of sets won; or

iii) Highest percentage of games won.

iv) If (i), (ii) or (iii) produce 1 superior player (first place), or 1 inferior
player (third place), and the 2 remaining players are tied, the tie between those 2 players shall be broken by head-to-head record.

4) If ties still exist after the above procedures, the ATP shall make the final determination.

contador says:
“great finish by davy. way to make the missus happy! $$$$ :-)”

Lol. The missus was grinning from ear to ear…though she also went through micro-heart attacks.

Some of those rallies were so long that even Rafa, the king of rallies, had to take long breathers and bend for 30 or so seconds when they ended. wow! I need an immediate replay of that second set….mind-boggling angles created bx Davy with Rafa making some crazy returns. :))

Rafa’s motivation to win the nest round: Bag in those 200points which will be necessary next year as he begins to defend titles in the early season. The difference between #2 & #3 might be so narrow…all points are necessary. My popcorns are ready for Friday’s racquet-fight. With Rafa’s level of play in that 2nd set, he cannot be under-estimated. Hopefully Djoko’s having a good rest and plenty of massage…he’ll need the energy.

“However, as Nadal has the history of making comebacks, it would be premature to forecast his future on hard court and in general.”

I don’t wanna beat on any player when he’s down, especially Rafa, but what the hell are you talking about? History of comebacks? when? how? From 2005 to May 2009, Nadal was going nowhere but up. He was imrpoving in every aspect of the game. His loss of at Roland Garros and what followed it is the first setback of Rafa’s career. Ever.

So no, he doesn’t have a history of comebacks, simply because he doesn’t have a history of setbacks.

I know many of you are optimistic about his chances next year, because after all this is a 6 time slam champion, and the first one in history to hold slam titles on three different surfaces (Fed achieved the same thing by winning Wimbledon this year). So one can’t write him off, or can he?

I, for one, started writing Nadal off after I’ve seen his performances at Montreal, Cincy and the US Open. I posted back then that I don’t see him winning another slam outside of his beloved Philippe Chatrier, if that.

Of course, I got a lot of “you’re crazy” remarks, but I stand by what I said back then. I don’t see Rafa coming back like Fed did this year. Why? Because his primordial game is a defensive game. Sure he can attack when his game is on, but defence is his forte. Now when a defender can’t defend, what can he do? Pretty much nothing. His performance will deteriorate according to his deteriorating defensive skills. That’s not the case with Fed. Fed’s primordial game is an attacking game. In Wimbledon 2003, he Serve-and-volleyed around 80% of the time. Does that sound like the Fed of 2004 to 2009? Hell no. So what happened? Courts got slower, and Fed adapted his game to suit slower surfaces. He had the luxury of making such a decision because the attacker can always tone it down a notch. Even Pete Sampras, who is the poster child of agressive tennis, stayed back when playing on clay. Sure he wasn’t as good, but that has more to do with the way he was taught how to play tennis in the USA. There are barely any clay courts in the US at all, so defensive skills are not honed as they should be (can you spell James Blake?). In Europe, almost all players grow up on clay courts. They learn how to defend first then they build their games according to their different styles. So when Fed had to defend more than what he did in 2003, he just got back to basics. When an attacker is not playing well, when his strokes are falling short, when his serve is off, he’ll have to defend coz he won’t get the upper hand with a 1-2 punch. But when a defender doesn’t play well, there’s nothing he can do. What you get is what happened today with Rafa.

Now Rafa and his camp have made a concious decision not to let what happened to his knees happend again. Fair enough. But the downside is that the fearsome Rafa of Summer 2008 is history.

First TMS, you want to win all. But more importantly, the prize money you get from one win is something that is still huge for Soderling, he’s not exactly super rich from tennis yet. And there’s the matter of 200 points which is not a bad deal either. Not to mention if he loses in 2 sets he has to play Federer in SF, and he certainly doesn’t want that.

Btw, one more thing. I love watching Davy play tennis. I never regarded him as a mere jouneyman. Sure, he’s got as much charisma on court as a sack of potatoes, but boy!!! Is his game efficient or what!! He knows how to defend, how to attack, he relishes hitting the ball down the line. Oh, and if you think his volleys are crap, you should have seen him two years ago. LOL.

I get your point Kimmi – usually we think the fave will win it. But of course it doesn’t always pan out that way. I just never thought of his as the fave to begin with as I figured he’d run out of gas physically and/or mentally given the run he’d been on. That’s why I think form doesn’t alway equal fave, and I used the example of Murray being the form player leading into the AO, but then being one of the first top guys to go out.

“But as others have said, this is a very open event. Now I am beginning to think Murray, Fed and Soda are the top faves.”

I think the only top fave at this point is Sod…simply based on the fact that he’s already qualified. There’s the very real possibility that Fed goes out tomorrow should he lose in straight sets. Should Murray win in straights, I think Fed must win at least a set to give himself a chance. I don’t see Murray losing to ‘Dasco…he’s said he wants to win it in straights, otherwise, he’ll have to wait to see how Fed & Del.P game goes.

been there: i was ‘channelling’ mrs. davy’s agony, when thinking he would choke, and her relief when he won. now, if she would give me a call to go shopping! i’m waiting …

also confused: the rr rules are confusing. it’s like, who’s on first?

yes indeed, about friday’s matches!! the way rafa played that first set, nole woulda had to really try hard NOT to win. but….good points about rafa’s motivation, been there. and no, never counting rafa out.

not sure what to think about nolee. did not get to watch that match. surely, he will come out fighting. ??? why blow a perfectly good opportunity to improve the rafa/nole h2h?

Sean – I agree about Soderling sending Roddick a thank you present. He has already banked 400 ranking points he would not have had and these points do not fall off until next November. This will help Robin Soderling in terms of seeding for the entire 2010 season minus the season ending event.

With Rafa eliminated he can at best enter next season 1105 points behind Federer (Nadal wins vs. Nole and Federer doesn’t advance). This puts Roger in a good spot to hold #1 through Indian Wells and/or Miami. Connors and Lendl’s total weeks at #1 will both likely be marks Roger exceeds at the start of the clay court season.

As for Rafa, I feel bad seeing this. He did get a break back in the 2nd set, but he is clearly not playing at the level he did for 2008 and through Rome 2009. Djokovic gets an Ochen Harasho (no Cyrillic characters). My guess is Soderling will go 3-0 with Novak also advancing one way or another. I think Roger goes 3-0 and Murray goes 2-1 to come through on the other side.

Nadal’s career has always been on the ascent. Until the middle of this year.

Nadal had never lost at Roland Garros. Ever. So it was a huge shock. He’s in unknown psychological territory, because no one had ever been able to hurt him in his favorite court.

Nadal is a modernized version of Borg, perhaps the greatest defensive player in tennis (prior to Nadal’s arrival). And what happened to Borg? He burned out early, because playing that kind of attrition tennis required the expenditure of so much mental energy.

And Borg played in the relatively slow-paced era of serve-and-volley tennis with wooden rackets. He did not have to deal with 6’6” power baseliners who hit forehands faster and harder than players used to serve. To play like Borg in this day and age requires so much more fitness and speed than in Borg’s time. There’s a reason, after all, that Nadal spends so much time injured.

It’s ultimately more than a human body can take, no matter if the spirit is willing. And though Nadal is mentally extremely tough, the spirit will start giving out, just a little bit, if he has to keep up this way of playing with 100% concentration on every point, and running down every ball. And once that little bit is gone, your opponents are going to be all over you.

Nadal’s career is already better than Borg’s in one very important respect–he won a hard-court slam. He’ll always be excellent on clay. And with a little luck he could end up with nine or ten Grand Slams, surely at least he can win the French Open a couple more times and tie Borg’s record there.

But to suggest that just because Federer can make a comeback in midcareer, others can, is a dangerously broad generalization that overlooks how special a player Federer is.

His enormous arsenal of shots, and ability to deploy them, are matched by very few in the history of the sport. He can compensate for loss of mobility by employing different tactics and cutting points short in various ways, and because his serve is so good, and he can anticipate the ball so well, he doesn’t have to do as much running.

As scary as it sounds, I think the Federer of 2004-2007 was using something like 50% of his game. He didn’t need any more to beat his opponents. He could just floor them with a stream of winners.

Now he’s older and not quite as fleet of foot as he used to be, so he’s having to be more canny and use maybe 65% or so of his game.

As Kimo points out, he used to play serve and volley. His idols were Becker, Edberg, and Sampras–the great serve-and-volley players of modern times.

He abandoned that strategy because courts were slowing down and racket technology made it easier to hit passing shots. And his baseline game became so good that he could rely almost exclusively on it.

Now, in order to adapt to the challenges of the younger generation, he is coming full circle and returning to a style closer to how he played in his youth, supplemented by his years of experience. Now he can pick his moment to attack more carefully, and because he’s so good at the baseline, he can set up his approaches much more skillfully, so that he doesn’t get passed as often. I would call this more aggressive style, which is not quite classical serve-and-volley, the true all-court game.

So it’s not that Federer is playing a totally different way, he’s actually returning to his core game, but with the benefit of his years of experience.

If Nadal were to attempt to adapt himself in this way, he would be picking up a totally foreign way of playing, not returning to his core game. And I just don’t think he can do it, at least not well enough to be totally dominant.

Thanks david. Good work for you have done there for group B. Tough job for Djoko. What I am also thinking, it could be even tougher now soderling is already qualified..he might not give his all with davydenko.

Friends and foes,
this is my last post for 2 months. i could not pass this one because it was too tempting, as it involved interpreting rules, application, and some numbers. If I am right, the story goes as follows:
Standings Current
Group A
1. Fed 2-0 matches (M), 4-2 sets (S), 32-22 games (G)
2. Murray 1-1 (M), 3-3 (S), 25-26 (G)
3. DePo 1-1 (M), 3-3 (S), 27-31 (G)
4. Verdi 0-2 (M), 2-4 (S), 28-33 (G)

Future Standings
Group A
. Fed 2-1 (M), 5-4 (S)
. Muzza 2-1 (M), 5-4 (S)
. JMDP 2-1 (M), 5-4 (S)
If we have 3-way tie, number of Games won decides the top standing, which would likely be Fed, and the 2nd standing is decided by head-to-head record, which would be Muzza. Regardless if Fed wins or loses against DePo, he will keep the top spot as long as he wins 1 set and he is ahead in number of games won.

Sod just needs 1 set to keep the top spot, and this allows Dj to reach the semi as long as Dj beats Rafa, regardless of number of sets because once the Sod’s top spot is decided based on number of match wins and sets, the rest becomes a 2-way tie and is decided by head-to-head record, which Dj has over Davy.
So, j., Sar, Duro, DD and all Dj fans, if you want to see your guy through, pray that Sod wins a set (or beats Davy), along with Dj beats Rafa.

Good luck to all of you, whoever you are rooting for.
Love you all ! Good bye for a while!

Steve and Kimo- really interesting analyses. I hope you’re wrong, I’m a Fed fan but I love Rafa and love their big matches. All summer I assumed Rafa would come back. But after what, four, five months back? Things don’t look good. You’re right that Rafa’s never had a setback like this, which really makes it a guess that he CAN’T come back from this. He has been adapting his game. If this is the lowest he’s going to get- its still a pretty good base to build from. So… hopeful, but not completely optimistic.
Steve- you’re explanation of Roger’s evolution was pretty interesting.
thanks.

3 – If Federer loses and Murray loses Both Federer and Delkpo will be 2-1 and Murray and Verdasco 1-2.

DelPo qualifies in first and Fed in second due to Head-to-Head

4 – If Federe wins and Murray wins

Federer qualifies firts and Murray in second.

So, Murray or Delpo basically have to win to secure their place unless scenario 2.A happens when it will come down to games won/lost. If they both lose they must win a set and hope for the game won/lost percentage.

“If this is the lowest he’s going to get- its still a pretty good base to build from. So… hopeful, but not completely optimistic.”

I didn’t mean to suggest he’s done. Nadal will be around for a while, probably the next four years or so. Not totally dominant, but he’ll be near the top. Like I said in another post, he’s still #2. Not exactly a bad place to be.

And I still would pick him as the favorite in any clay-court tournament. Like I said, he’ll end with nine, maybe ten Slams, which isn’t a bad haul.

Tennis would be poorer without him, certainly, and he’s had a great rivalry with Federer. And he’s ambitious and very hard-working, so he’s not going to disappear unless he really can’t physically play.