Spratt on MLS: Whitecaps’ Miller shedding ‘bust’ label

Despite leaking goals at an alarming rate, the Vancouver Whitecaps find themselves in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race thanks to their offensive output.

And if designated player Kenny Miller continues to play like he has in recent weeks, the Whitecaps could be trending upwards.

Much was expected of Miller when he signed with Vancouver last July. He scored 187 goals for Rangers, Celtic, Wolves and a variety of other teams, and Whitecaps coach Martin Rennie was all too keen to bring Miller aboard.

"We wanted to get a little bit more proactive going forward," Rennie said at Miller’s introductory press conference. "And when the opportunity came up to sign Kenny Miller, we really were excited to do it."

But Miller struggled to meet supporters’ expectations in 2012, notching only two goals in 13 appearances and falling behind rookie Darren Mattocks on the depth chart. There were even rumours in March that Miller would be headed back to the UK.

Contrary to the rumblings, Miller stuck around, and the Whitecaps have been better for it. After recording a goal and an assist in the team’s first three matches in 2013, Miller was felled by a hamstring injury that forced him to miss two months. He’s since come back to quite a different situation.

Mattocks hasn’t been able to reach the heights of his freshman campaign, and seemingly fallen out of favour with Rennie. Rookies Erik Hurtado and Kekuta Manneh have shown flashes, but consistency up front is a lot to ask for from most players straight out of the NCAA. And while Camilo is in the midst of a career year, bagging goals at will, he’s not a typical out-and-out striker.

Enter Miller. The native of Edinburgh finally seems to be breaking out -- two incredible goals last weekend against New England showed off his capabilities, and while one game surely isn’t enough to silence all the doubters, Miller had another strong outing despite not getting on the scoresheet in a Wednesday win over league doormats Chivas USA.

He’s now scored five goals in just seven appearances in 2013, providing some optimism that he can be the go-to man up top.

What can we realistically expect out of Miller? He’s unquestionably been polarizing during his time in Vancouver, but the reality is he’s in pretty good company in terms of his goal scoring numbers, bolstered significantly by his improved play this year. Below is a list of forwards that have come to MLS as designated players, sorted by goals per 90 minutes played.

Player

Games

G

A

Shots

Shots on goal

MIN

G/90

Obafemi Martins

8

4

1

10

6

456

0.79

Danny Koevermans

27

17

3

69

41

1946

0.79

Robbie Keane

39

23

14

117

56

3407

0.61

Andres Mendoza

37

15

2

78

33

2226

0.61

Hamdi Salihi

22

6

0

32

17

945

0.57

Marco Di Vaio

31

15

3

100

42

2499

0.54

Juan Pablo Angel

152

72

15

480

221

12124

0.53

Thierry Henry

76

37

20

232

97

6371

0.52

Claudio Bieler

15

7

1

45

17

1265

0.50

Kenny Miller

20

7

1

25

11

1288

0.49

Though there are issues with the sample size on a few of these players, Miller’s strike rate in terms of goals per minutes played –- a rudimentary measure, admittedly, but a decent marker of a striker’s efficiency -- remains reasonably impressive so far.

Next, let’s take a look at accuracy. Below is a comparison of DP forwards/attackers who’ve come to MLS from another league, sorted by the percentage of their shots that hit the target. Miller again finds himself in good company with this measure, well ahead of current DPs who get far more accolades, such as Marco Di Vaio, Thierry Henry and Claudio Bieler.

Player

Games

G

A

Shots

SOG

MIN

G/90

SOG%

Danny Koevermans

27

17

3

69

41

1946

0.79

59.4

Cuauhtemoc Blanco

62

16

26

111

57

5083

0.28

51.4

Robbie Keane

39

23

14

117

56

3407

0.61

47.9

Guillermo Schelotto

102

33

41

208

97

8182

0.36

46.6

Juan Pablo Angel

152

72

15

480

221

12124

0.53

46.0

Kris Boyd

26

7

1

63

28

1893

0.33

44.4

Kenny Miller

20

7

1

25

11

1288

0.49

44.0

Fabian Castillo

62

10

7

82

36

4027

0.22

43.9

Andres Mendoza

37

15

2

78

33

2226

0.61

42.3

Claudio Lopez

68

13

15

147

62

4966

0.24

42.2

So we’ve established that in terms of raw time spent on the pitch, Miller is good for about a goal every other match, and also that historically he gets his shots on target at a fairly good rate. But what really stands out when looking into the numbers is that Miller is among the best designated players of all time in terms of converting his shots on target into goals.

It’s not a perfect stat by any stretch, as it doesn’t account for shot location, difficulty and a myriad of other factors. Still, it’s a decent basic measure of who’s able to take their chances. For completeness sake, below is the all-time listing of DP forwards/attackers (minimum 1080 minutes - 12 matches) who’ve come from outside MLS, sorted by goals per shots on goal.

Player

G

A

Shots

SOG

G/90

SOG%

G/SOG

Obafemi Martins

4

1

10

6

0.79

60.0

0.667

Kenny Miller

7

1

25

11

0.49

44.0

0.636

Rafael

1

0

7

2

0.27

28.6

0.500

Blaise Nkufo

5

0

15

11

0.48

73.3

0.455

Andres Mendoza

15

2

78

33

0.61

42.3

0.455

Danny Koevermans

17

3

69

41

0.79

59.4

0.415

Claudio Bieler

7

1

45

17

0.50

37.8

0.412

Robbie Keane

23

14

117

56

0.61

47.9

0.411

Thierry Henry

37

20

232

97

0.52

41.8

0.381

Omar Bravo

9

2

60

25

0.38

41.7

0.360

Federico Higuain

9

10

82

25

0.35

30.5

0.360

Marco Di Vaio

15

3

100

42

0.54

42.0

0.357

Hamdi Salihi

6

0

32

17

0.57

53.1

0.353

Guillermo Schelotto

33

41

208

97

0.36

46.6

0.340

Eric Hassli

15

8

134

46

0.37

34.3

0.326

Juan Pablo Angel

72

15

480

221

0.53

46.0

0.326

Fredy Montero

47

34

411

154

0.54

37.5

0.305

Cuauhtemoc Blanco

16

26

111

57

0.28

51.4

0.281

Fabian Castillo

10

7

82

36

0.22

43.9

0.278

Kris Boyd

7

1

63

28

0.33

44.4

0.250

Sherjill MacDonald

4

5

43

16

0.23

37.2

0.250

Jerry Bengtson

3

0

37

14

0.15

37.8

0.214

Claudio Lopez

13

15

147

62

0.24

42.2

0.210

Milton Caraglio

3

2

46

15

0.27

32.6

0.200

Federico Puppo

0

1

3

3

100

Mista

0

1

13

3

23.1

Mustapha Jarju

0

0

14

3

21.4

Now, while the numbers presented look favourable for Miller, it is not to suggest that he’s in the conversation as an elite MLS forward. Any keen observer of the league would place Robbie Keane, Philadelphia’s Jack McInherny, Henry, Di Vaio and several others above him in terms of raw ability.

But what the numbers do show is that for all the talk of being yet another DP bust, Miller has done pretty well to make the most of his opportunities. Again, while his sample size is still rather small to draw any grand conclusions, he’s been decent value for his salary cap hit.

And with the constant unrest among Whitecaps supporters over the constant lineup tinkering, it seems that the decision to play Miller up top should be one of the simpler ones that Rennie has to make in 2013.

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