UofSC analysis: Immigration, abortion lead social media conversations

Immigration and abortion dominate public social media conversations on the key issues
in the 2020 race for the presidency both in South Carolina and nationally, according
to a new analysis by researchers at the University of South Carolina. Other hot button
issues such as climate change, tariffs and gun control lag far behind in public social
media posts.

The Social Media Insights Lab at the College of Information and Communications used
artificial intelligence-powered software to analyze a database of more than 70 million
social media mentions nationally – including nearly 300,000 in South Carolina – between
January 1 and June 17. The survey included public comments on Twitter, YouTube, Instagram,
Reddit, blogs, forums and reviews. (See graphics 1 and 2 at end of article.)

“We’re talking about a massive sample size,” says Insights Lab manager Kaitlyn Park. “What those 70 million mentions showed us was that issues here are largely reflective
of issues nationwide, meaning South Carolina might not be that different from the
rest of the country.”

Immigration captured the largest share of voice among the issues with 41 percent of
the comments in South Carolina and 40 percent nationally. Abortion was second with
31 percent in South Carolina and 27 percent nationally. (See graphics 3 and 4.)

The lab’s software can categorize recurring topics in conversations through a feature
known as “drivers of opinion.” The breakdown of South Carolina’s 120,000 immigration
mentions showed that social media users expressed:

Generally positive expressions regarding immigration accounted for just 2 percent
of the conversation in South Carolina and 3 percent nationally. (See graphic 5.)

Spikes in conversation coincided with immigration-related news events and statements
from President Trump. The lab found that the president’s @realDonaldTrump Twitter
account, which now has more than 61 million followers, was the lead influencer driving
debate around the issue nationally. (See graphic 6.)

“What struck me is how the ‘drivers of opinion’ mirror Trump points,” says Charles Bierbauer, a former CNN White House correspondent and South Carolina professor emeritus. “The
Democrats are simply being outshouted.”

Randy Covington, a faculty member in the School of Journalism and Mass Communications who directs
the Insights Lab, says the findings suggest immigration may be a challenge for Democrats
hoping to go head-to-head with Trump in 2020.

“Our analysis shows immigration continues to be a winning issue for President Trump,”
Covington says. “Democrats who do not address the issue or try to sidestep it do so
at their peril.”

While immigration had the highest post volume throughout most of 2019, abortion temporarily
surpassed it around the time that several states enacted bills restricting abortion
services.

Graphs reflecting conversation volume for both South Carolina and the U.S. illustrate
a dramatic spike in mid-May following the passage of Alabama’s Human Life Protection
Act, a near-total ban on abortion. At their highest point, national mentions topped
1.5 million in a single day.

“We saw a lot of anger from South Carolinians on both sides of the issue,” Park says.
“One surprising finding when looking at the state was that there were more negative
comments about restricting abortion than about the practice itself.”

The lab analyzed more than 19 million national mentions regarding abortion – including
90,000 in South Carolina – to gauge public sentiment. It found little variation between
the two populations. Palmetto State conversations expressed:

Neutral news mentions or content from advocacy groups, which was not tabulated since
it did not come from individuals, accounted for 21 percent in South Carolina and 19
percent nationwide.

These findings come just days before the Planned Parenthood Action Fund’s candidate
forum in Columbia. Eleven of the 19 Democratic presidential hopefuls are slated to
attend Saturday’s event on South Carolina’s campus to discuss their positions on abortion
rights and reproductive health care.

Planned Parenthood is a polarizing topic on social media. The lab found that about
half of all mentions of the reproductive health care organization expressed negative
sentiment, both in South Carolina and nationally.

Of the other issues studied, climate change was the third most-discussed with a 15
percent share of voice in South Carolina and 17 percent nationally, followed by tariffs
with eight percent in the state and 10 percent nationally. Gun control had the lowest
share of the conversation with five percent in the state and six percent nationally.

This study is the second in a series of South Carolina Insights reports that analyze
social media conversations on relevant topics. The first report examined more than 23 million mentions and found that Pete Buttigieg had the largest
positive sentiment on social media — both in South Carolina and the nation— among
the leading candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Though there were more total posts related to the topic of immigration, conversations
about the topic of abortion saw the most growth in May after Alabama passed a near-total
abortion ban, the “Human Life Protection Act.” South Carolina closely mirrors the
nation as a whole when looking at topics of conversation related to political issues.
The early spike in conversation related to immigration coincided with President Donald
Trump’s address to the United States about border security.

The national comparison for volume of conversation mirrors South Carolina. Like South
Carolina, conversations related to immigration and abortion were the main topics of
conversation, followed by climate change, tariffs and gun control.

South Carolinians spoke about topics related to abortion more than the nation (31
percent vs. 27 percent).

Climate change, tariffs and gun control occupy less of the national conversation.

President Donald Trump was the main influencer in conversations related to immigration.
President Trump’s language on this issue is prevalent in the South Carolina word cloud
for all content sources.

President Donald Trump was the main influencer in conversations related to immigration.

Housed in South Carolina’s School of Journalism and Mass Communications, the Social
Media Insights Lab uses Crimson Hexagon software to generate, visualize and interpret
data on everything from consumer sentiment to crisis response. Since its launch in
January 2019, the lab has enhanced the university’s research efforts and raised its
profile as a thought-leader in social media analytics.