Commentary

Apple is dead money for now

Commentary: The fall may be over, but the rise isn’t here yet.

By

BillGunderson

SAN DIEGO (MarketWatch) — Back in November of 2011, I wrote an article about Apple for MarketWatch. At the time, I stated the following: “The bottom line is this, however; there is currently not a cheaper quality growth stock in the entire market.” In other words, I loved the stock.

I based that opinion on three important factors that I always consider before buying a stock. I like stocks with good long-term and short-term relative strength, a compelling valuation, and a strong stock chart. At that time Apple possessed all three of these characteristics.

Apple’s shares
AAPL, -0.03%
were trading at $363.57 back then. By September of 2012, the shares hit a peak of $705, and I continued to hold my shares here at Gunderson Capital Management. At $705 the shares were not as cheap as they once were, the relative performance was stellar, and the chart was obviously hitting new highs, although it was starting to get extended.

Everyone who owned Apple at that point had a profit in the stock. It was getting hard to find much more demand, as most of had already been satiated. The stock finally started to roll over after a meteoric rise.

As a widely held, big winner like Apple begins to roll over, it goes through several stages of distribution. At first, the correction looks like nothing more than a routing pullback within the primary uptrend. The nervous Nellies and short-term traders are the first ones to head for the exit.

In the past, Apple had always recovered after a bout of profit-taking and marched on to new highs. This time was different, however. By early October, the stock broke below its 50-day moving average for the first time in six months. Early profit-taking then started to escalate into some serious selling. I sold my shares on Oct. 8 at $637 per share.

Even though the stock still made sense from a valuation point of view, my other two criteria had been violated. The stock’s relative performance against the 3,200 other stocks that I follow was dropping fast, and it no longer had a healthy stock chart.

In mid-October, the 20-day moving average crossed below the 50-day for the first time in five months. This was its first so-called death cross and now even ardent believers in the stock began to take notice. Early profit-taking had turned into serious selling, and now panic selling was starting to set in.

The stock then proceeded to go almost straight down for almost two months. Full-blown distribution finally hit America’s darling, and $705 became $505 very quickly. I don’t know about you, but I never buy a stock in a downtrend. Even though it was tempting, we first needed to find out where the downtrend would eventually end.

The stock had some support in the $500 area, but after a quick little 90-point bounce, the ugly downtrend resumed. The stock tested $500 again, and it looked like it might hold, but then gapped down again after earnings and finally settled in the $450 area.

All the way down after I sold my shares, I warned listeners of my radio show to avoid the stock. I hope that I saved them some grief.

Now that the stock is $450, isn’t it time to get back in?

Let’s begin with my current valuation of the shares:

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The stock currently still looks good from a valuation point of view. When I extrapolate the current earnings estimates out over the next five years at 13.7% per year and apply a reasonable multiple, I come up with a five-year target price of $853.

Along with the dividend, the stock has 98.7% upside potential, which is very good. It should be noted, however, that the earnings estimates and price target have come down drastically in the last few months. Earnings momentum is finally contracting on the stock — not good.

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