2010 fate lies in state legislatures

Most big prizefights have an “undercard” — bouts between lesser-known opponents that precede the main event. The undercard in the 2010 elections is the battle for control of state legislatures — which could determine how congressional lines are drawn for the next decade.

A few legislative seats here, a few legislative seats there will decide which party controls one or both chambers of the legislatures, which will be responsible the following year for mapping districts of their state congressional delegations.

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Both parties know these races are a priority and are pouring resources into key battleground states. Republicans, for example, have a chance to make gains in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Democrats could make gains in Texas.

The first shot in this battle is set to be fired next January, when census figures are released and we find out which states gain congressional seats and which lose them.

Current projections indicate that Texas could pick up three or four seats. A number of other Sun Belt states will each gain one seat. The big losers, continuing a trend that started 50 years ago, will be Rust Belt states such as Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Iowa, which are all projected to lose at least one seat.

Shifting seats from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt has traditionally helped Republicans — though Latino growth in the big winner, Texas, could yield Democratic seats. And control of the legislature in states losing seats will determine who doesn’t get to sit down when the music stops — just like a game of musical chairs at a county fair.

If Democrats retain control of legislatures in some Rust Belt states, it could be Republicans who are left out in the cold.

Most people know that seats have migrated from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt during the past 50 years, but few realize how dramatic this change has been.