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is triangle/zone the worst off/def combo or is it? Topic

Posted by terps21234 on 7/28/2013 11:52:00 AM (view original):Allright, All the talk about zone and the averages in def ratings. How do I lose to Cowan whose def. ratings are horrible. ( No offense to Cowan coach) He plays a 3-2 and per def. ratings are low. I took advantage and gave my per players the most distro. If all the talk is true than how did I lose.http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=9705384

even when you are the best team in the country, you can lose to teams that arent that good - its just not that common. in this case, your team was certainly favored, but its not like you should have won 99% of the time or anything even close. both teams were pretty weak offensively and rebounding wise. their team was way worse than yours defensively but your team is not awesome defensively either, and while clearly better, you just dont have the raw offensive talent to consistently make a really bad defense suffer. its just an 80% sim that hit the 20%, type of thing. you are going to lose pretty many games like that over the years! 1 for every 5 you play... and very easily might not have been as big of a favorite as 80%, just throwing that out there, its probably actually closer than that.

I'm not 100% certain that "outside the lane jumpers" exist. Sometimes I think they do, sometimes I think they don't. But I definitely wouldn't analyze any game or gameplan based heavily on the assumption that they do.

To clarify, I'm not saying that PER doesn't impact 2 pt shooting; it does, not massively but it certainly helps. But I'm not certain whether defensive weightings are any different for a guard with high PER shooting a 2 and a guard with no PER and tons of LP and BH shooting a 2.

im pretty confident outside the lane jumpers exist, but, i agree that its not clear whether defensive weightings are any different when guarding a guard taking a 2 point shot of various types.

actually, i was going to say, offensive weightings are clearly different, hence the confidence 2pt jumpers exist - but you know, im not all that confident in that statement, now that i think about it. maybe outside the lane jumpers dont exist? that would be pretty crazy. ive never been able to make sense of the +/- impact on 2pt jumpers, maybe its because they aren't real? just window dressing? i think examining the FTA stats for guards with low 3pta and varying lp/per skills would flesh that out fairly quickly. i feel like i have guards with low lp kill it on FTA, which makes me wonder if you are right, and there just might be "2pt shots for guards". what holds me back is the fact that low lp guards can shoot 2s very effectively. i am guessing if you check the FTA there is a difference in LP and PER based 2pt scoring - which to me is essentially analogous to if 2pt jumpers exist. but now you have me wondering. if only i still had teams, that would be pretty cool to look into. i guess i dont even really need a team but sure makes it more interesting when its your own team :O you should totally check that out though if you have the time & interest!

Posted by terps21234 on 7/28/2013 11:52:00 AM (view original):Allright, All the talk about zone and the averages in def ratings. How do I lose to Cowan whose def. ratings are horrible. ( No offense to Cowan coach) He plays a 3-2 and per def. ratings are low. I took advantage and gave my per players the most distro. If all the talk is true than how did I lose.http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=9705384

even when you are the best team in the country, you can lose to teams that arent that good - its just not that common. in this case, your team was certainly favored, but its not like you should have won 99% of the time or anything even close. both teams were pretty weak offensively and rebounding wise. their team was way worse than yours defensively but your team is not awesome defensively either, and while clearly better, you just dont have the raw offensive talent to consistently make a really bad defense suffer. its just an 80% sim that hit the 20%, type of thing. you are going to lose pretty many games like that over the years! 1 for every 5 you play... and very easily might not have been as big of a favorite as 80%, just throwing that out there, its probably actually closer than that.

TY gillispie1, Yes I know I shouldn't have won 99% of the time. I thought that my offensive was a liability. With his low guards def. ratings, if I had a good 3pt shooter and better rebounding I would of won? Plus he had a 10 point SCP advantage. I know my team ain't that good, but just trying to understand this game. Thanks as usual for the helpful advise

Posted by gillispie1 on 7/30/2013 1:36:00 PM (view original):im pretty confident outside the lane jumpers exist, but, i agree that its not clear whether defensive weightings are any different when guarding a guard taking a 2 point shot of various types.

actually, i was going to say, offensive weightings are clearly different, hence the confidence 2pt jumpers exist - but you know, im not all that confident in that statement, now that i think about it. maybe outside the lane jumpers dont exist? that would be pretty crazy. ive never been able to make sense of the +/- impact on 2pt jumpers, maybe its because they aren't real? just window dressing? i think examining the FTA stats for guards with low 3pta and varying lp/per skills would flesh that out fairly quickly. i feel like i have guards with low lp kill it on FTA, which makes me wonder if you are right, and there just might be "2pt shots for guards". what holds me back is the fact that low lp guards can shoot 2s very effectively. i am guessing if you check the FTA there is a difference in LP and PER based 2pt scoring - which to me is essentially analogous to if 2pt jumpers exist. but now you have me wondering. if only i still had teams, that would be pretty cool to look into. i guess i dont even really need a team but sure makes it more interesting when its your own team :O you should totally check that out though if you have the time & interest!

How? I'll be happy to try. I'll use the rest of my Rivier season to experiment

Posted by terps21234 on 7/28/2013 11:52:00 AM (view original):Allright, All the talk about zone and the averages in def ratings. How do I lose to Cowan whose def. ratings are horrible. ( No offense to Cowan coach) He plays a 3-2 and per def. ratings are low. I took advantage and gave my per players the most distro. If all the talk is true than how did I lose.http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=9705384

even when you are the best team in the country, you can lose to teams that arent that good - its just not that common. in this case, your team was certainly favored, but its not like you should have won 99% of the time or anything even close. both teams were pretty weak offensively and rebounding wise. their team was way worse than yours defensively but your team is not awesome defensively either, and while clearly better, you just dont have the raw offensive talent to consistently make a really bad defense suffer. its just an 80% sim that hit the 20%, type of thing. you are going to lose pretty many games like that over the years! 1 for every 5 you play... and very easily might not have been as big of a favorite as 80%, just throwing that out there, its probably actually closer than that.

TY gillispie1, Yes I know I shouldn't have won 99% of the time. I thought that my offensive was a liability. With his low guards def. ratings, if I had a good 3pt shooter and better rebounding I would of won? Plus he had a 10 point SCP advantage. I know my team ain't that good, but just trying to understand this game. Thanks as usual for the helpful advise

if you had a good 3pt shooter and better rebounding, would you have won? i wouldnt think about it like that. the best team doesnt always win, it doesnt matter how much better you are. keep in mind with only like 50 shots per side, theres still a LOT of randomness in the results. what you want to look for is success across a season or across a number of seasons, as a way to determine the success of an approach. ive lost the 1v64 matchup before in the NT and it certainly wasnt my team or the way i coached that team. it was simply hitting that 1% on a 99% chance to win, just like sometimes at the casino, a guy will hit on roulette picking a single number, even though its a 1/38 chance or whatever.

anyway, if you had those things, you definitely would have been more likely to win. having a strong 3 point shooter is about the best single player you can have on most teams, especially in the lower divisions. if you added one really strong 3 point shooter to your team, and played your current team, the team with the shooter could win as much as 4 out of 5 of those games. its that important! if you aren't familiar with team planning or my comments on the marginal value of offensive and defensive and other abilities, id read up on that, i think i covered it decently in the interview i did (as coach_billyg).

Posted by gillispie1 on 7/30/2013 1:36:00 PM (view original):im pretty confident outside the lane jumpers exist, but, i agree that its not clear whether defensive weightings are any different when guarding a guard taking a 2 point shot of various types.

actually, i was going to say, offensive weightings are clearly different, hence the confidence 2pt jumpers exist - but you know, im not all that confident in that statement, now that i think about it. maybe outside the lane jumpers dont exist? that would be pretty crazy. ive never been able to make sense of the +/- impact on 2pt jumpers, maybe its because they aren't real? just window dressing? i think examining the FTA stats for guards with low 3pta and varying lp/per skills would flesh that out fairly quickly. i feel like i have guards with low lp kill it on FTA, which makes me wonder if you are right, and there just might be "2pt shots for guards". what holds me back is the fact that low lp guards can shoot 2s very effectively. i am guessing if you check the FTA there is a difference in LP and PER based 2pt scoring - which to me is essentially analogous to if 2pt jumpers exist. but now you have me wondering. if only i still had teams, that would be pretty cool to look into. i guess i dont even really need a team but sure makes it more interesting when its your own team :O you should totally check that out though if you have the time & interest!

Hupp leads my team in FTA and has a LP of 1 and PER of 50. Moody has the least of FTA amoungst starters and has a LP of 9 and PER of 71.(125 shots, 102 3pt, 18 FTA) I play Hupp at -2 and Moody at +1. Gillispie1, should I set their 3pt freq. setting to the same. That'll have something to do with their FTA right? Now Titus has 21 LP and 69 PER and I have him at +1, he has 46 shots, 25 3pt, and 16 FTA. He has almost as many FTA as Moody, who is a starter, and plays 15 more minutes. So does LP help take more 2pt shots or FTA?