It's Always a Numbers Game for Boras, Agent to the Stars

By TYLER KEPNER

Published: December 7, 2008

As baseball's most influential agent, Scott Boras immerses himself in numbers. In his company's headquarters in Newport Beach, Calif., he has a room full of computers equipped with data from every game since 1871. Numbers flow freely from him in conversation -- statistics, ages, contract terms.

With the baseball world descending on Las Vegas this weekend for the start of the winter meetings on Monday, Boras does not want to hear about the effects of the recession on baseball. As he seeks teams for a dazzling group of free agents including Manny Ram?z, Mark Teixeira, Derek Lowe and Oliver P?z, Boras has one relevant number in mind: $6.5 billion.

That is the amount of revenue baseball generated in 2008, a record for the industry. To Boras -- and other agents still waiting for teams to make their usual lucrative offers -- there is still plenty of money to go around.

''Even if, hypothetically, attendance is down and the revenues go from $6.5 billion to $6 billion, the fact remains that players last year received $3 billion in salaries,'' Boras said Friday, adding that a large part of the players' share had expired because of free agency.

''If the industry is making $6 billion and the players make $3 billion, you still have 50 percent to the players and 50 percent to the owners.''

Boras's history suggests reason for optimism. He does not always get the contracts he seeks, but he has made enough staggering winter deals -- for Alex Rodriguez, Barry Zito, Kevin Brown and Magglio Ord?, among others -- that it is never wise to doubt him.

While teams that rely heavily on credit to finance long-term contracts are acting more frugally this off-season, others have more cash to spend. Boras's guiding principle is that it takes only one team to set the market, and he offered a hint of that theory when asked his opinion about the effects of the overall economy on baseball.

''I think there are 30 economies in baseball,'' Boras said, referring to the 30 major league teams, and adding later: ''We know baseball had record revenues, and the profits that are in the barn for many owners are extraordinary. There are clubs that run their business appropriately, and we all know it's good business to have good players.''

In recent years, Boras has found a willing partner in the Detroit Tigers, who parlayed the signing of three clients -- Ord?, Kenny Rogers and Iv?Rodr?ez -- into an unlikely American League pennant in 2006. The Tigers ranked second in payroll last season, at $138.6 million, but their attendance could dip sharply in 2009 because of the economy in Michigan.

Still, the teams directly above and below the Tigers were the Yankees, at $209 million, and the Mets, at $138.2 million. They are moving into new stadiums and have their own cable networks; in theory, they will have plenty of room in their budgets for free agents.

The Yankees have at least some degree of interest in the three most prominent free agents -- Teixeira, Ram?z and C. C. Sabathia, who is scheduled to meet with General Manager Brian Cashman this weekend. Boras said many teams were waiting for those players to sign, explaining the stalled market.

''There may be as many as seven or eight clubs after each one of those players,'' Boras said. ''Those clubs are waiting for those players, and they're not pursuing the next players in line. So you have as many as 12 or 14 teams locked up, looking at those players and not making a decision until those players make their decisions. If those players sign with another team, those clubs may have a great deal of money to allocate.''

Yet even the Yankees showed last week that they have limits to the amount they are willing to risk. As much as they value compensatory draft picks, they did not offer salary arbitration to outfielder Bobby Abreu for fear he would be unable to find an appealing deal on the free-agent market and accept their offer.

In most years, Abreu would have widespread appeal; despite declining defensive skills, he has six successive seasons of 100 runs batted in, an active streak matched only by Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols. But the Yankees surveyed the landscape and chose not to risk an offer.

Abreu is not represented by Boras. His agent is Peter Greenberg, who negotiated a six-year, $137.5 million contract for Johan Santana with the Mets before last season. That was a record for a pitcher, but the Yankees' offer to Sabathia -- six years, $140 million -- would top it.

If the Yankees can persuade Sabathia and his agent, Greg Genske, to take it, the deal will be one of the first signs that at least some players are unaffected by the economy. The way Boras sees it, Sabathia will have plenty of company among satisfied players by the time spring training begins.

PHOTOS: Scott Boras, above and near left, represents a dazzling group of baseball free agents. In 2004, he negotiated a lucrative deal for Iván Rodríguez, far left, with the Tigers. (PHOTOGRAPHS BY LENNY IGNELZI/ASSOCIATED PRESSCARLOS OSORIO/ASSOCIATED PRESS)