Even fatter

A Methodist Healthcare Ministries-funded study on the avalanche of obesity facing Bexar County and Texas over the next 30 years (like we need any more obesity) was intended in part to raise support for new legislation. They want more money for school health programs, a serious look at whether to allow food stamps to be used at farmer’s markets, incentives for on-the-job health programs and much more.

The report by state demographer Karl Eschbach predicts that the percentage of obese adults in Bexar County will rise from 30 percent to 42.7 percent during that period. The entire state will rise from just under 29 percent to 42.6 percent.

Obviously a lot can happen between now and then. That’s the hope of Eschbach and those who produced the report, which is based on a federal telephone survey called the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. And there’s some evidence that the BRFSS seriously underestimates obesity, relying on people to be honest and accurate about their height and weight. More comprehensive studies using actual physical exams have found obesity rates higher than the BRFSS.

So the problem could be even worse than what Eschbach predicts. And he admits as much, saying his predictions were conservative. “We deliberately did not want to cry wolf,” he said.