Lack of Weather Events in 2012

Click the graphic to enlarge. According to the Storm Prediction Center, there was a record low in the number of tornado and severe weather watches issued for 2012. Since moving into their Norman, OK office in 1997, there has never been as few watches as this year’s 697. 2012 will also finish with nearly 400 less tornado reports than the 7 year average. According to NOAA’s NCDC, 2012 will finish nearly 140 less than the 1991-2010 average. Global accumlated tropical cyclone energy remains at historic lows and this is the longest period of time the U.S. has ever gone without a major hurricane hit (Category 3 and above). 2012 had 88 global tropical cyclones, 46 made hurricane strength, 21 major (96 knots +)

This is good news in a sense of less lives and property loss, that is the positive side of the low events. But I’m ready for a good thunderstorm but not feeling optimistic about 2013 severe storm season

Masters comment that “unparalleled in American history during 2012″ is absolutely laughable. Sandy was expensive because it hit a very high populated/high value area – it was a minimal hurricane. That area was a swamp 75 years ago when we had bigger storms that hit that same area. Check out the hurricanes of ’38 and ’44: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_Jersey_hurricanes Both had much stronger winds than Sandy. We haven’t had a major hurricane hit the U.S. in 7 years, the longest stretch EVER. It was a lean year for tornadoes and floods. We had a below average year for major snowstorms.

This statement from Dr. Chris Landsea is on the website of the National Hurricane Center (note point #3):

Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point.
No individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change.
The recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.

Regarding your link…several of the “events” he cites are moderate tornado-severe weather events that occur every year. What’s significant is the overall lack of tornadoes (we didn’t have a single one in W. Michigan in 2012) and severe t-storms. We had only 3 severe thunderstorm warnings for Kent County. All three were partial county warnings and for marginally severe winds. The “non-winter” is not a costly “event”. We save money when it’s mild in winter instead of when we have extended Arctic cold. We didn’t have a major U.S. ice storm. Sandy was a minimal hurricane at best (there’s a question of the technical structure and whether it was better described as a hybrid storm, due to the wind also being a function of the strong high to the north), made worst because it came onshore within two hours of the high tide of a full moon and that so many people ignored the warnings. Wildfires are mostly set, intentionally or not, by humans. The drought was not as severe as the droughts in the 1930s and 1950s: http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/screenhunter_365-dec-28-22-48.jpg?w=640&h=535 (Palmer Drought Index).

Sandy is going to rank right up there in terms of dollar damage. It hit a very populated area, but it wasn’t anywhere near the strongest storm in terms of wind or rainfall. In terms of loss of life, the Galveston Hurricane killed nearly 10,000 people in 1900. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane

Check out what’s in the Sandy relief bill – which is TWICE as big as the ENTIRE YEARLY BUDGET of the WHOLE STATE OF NEW JERSEY! It includes money for fisheries in Alaska! Two-thirds of the relief won’t be spent for over two years!

Exactly, Mike – and in terms of “weather” (severe storms, tornadoes, strong hurricanes by wind speed, ice storms, snow storms), this year had few weather “events”.

The title of the article was a little more specific to our area. I usually write about West Michigan weather. It’s true that there are always weather events (the March 2 tornado outbreak in IN and KY and (minimal for winds) Hurricane Sandy – but overall, we didn’t get a lot of hurricanes hitting the U.S. or very strong tornadoes thru the late spring and summer.

I thought with GW we were going to see more events causing more death and destruction. I think places of higher education will need to approach the government for more money to conduct studies to see why.

Most people think of storms as weather events…and it was a lean year for storms…for tornadoes, for severe t-storms, for major hurricanes (intensity – remember Sandy was a minimal hurricane or hybrid), for big snowstorms and for ice storms.

I’m wondering whether you can predict when we’ll be able to see the northern lights this winter? I don’t know if this classifies as a weather “event,” but I’d like to make a point of showing our kids if possible! Thoughts? Thanks

Hi Jane. It’s hard to predict an aurora down here (we’re closer to the Equator than we are to the North Pole, believe it or not. Even when things seem to come together, there’s no guarantee that the aurora will be seen here. We usually look for a solar event called a Coronal Mass Ejection. If a strong CME is aimed at Earth, and it happens to be night (dark – we have more dark hours in winter than in summer, but it’s cloudier in winter, too), then we might see an aurora. I work inside downtown, so I rely on someone that sees an aurora to let us know on the blog. You can also go to http://www.spaceweather.com and look on the left side for the Kp index. If it’s up to a 5, there’s a chance you can see the aurora (mainly to the north in a dark place. When that number reaches a 7 or 8, then we have a good chance of a decent auroral display.

I admire your commitment to not bicker and “go at it” with others on here; however, when you type what you just did above, it makes no sense. What “good work”? When people disagree with you in life, you can’t always take that route…