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Value Bet System shows you the way

Written by oddsfather
Thursday, 02 December 2010 21:30

We are happy to be able to offer you a Value Bet System that shows you the way.

A quite important part of this knowledge of ours is the Value Bet System (VBS) that we offer to everyone of you! Be smart and get advantage against the Bookies by keeping track of this system. Pure statistics and maths analysis each teams strength and give you a Pick.

Have a look at what Pinnacle Sports writes about this system in this case to predict Final Scores

Value Bet Sytem

The average number of Premiership goals scored and conceded in the 2008/09 season was 47.1 [goals for & against (942)/total teams (20)]. If we divide the number of goals scored by each time by 47.1, we get a measure of 'Attack Strength', so since the Villans scored 54 goals over that season their Attack Strength is 54/47.1= 1.15 showing they scored 15% more goals than average. Dividing the number of goals conceded by 47.1 gives a measure of 'Defence Weakness', so since Wigan conceded 45 their Defence Weakness value is 45/47.1=0.955 shows they had conceded 4.5% less goals than average (1-0.955).

Two other pieces of information are required to complete the statistical picture: the average number of goals scored last season by a home team was 1.4, while for an away team it was 1.08.

To predict the result of Aston Villa vs Wigan, you would start by estimating how many goals Aston Villa would score. They were playing at home, so in an average match we would have expected them to score 1.4. But this isn’t going to be an average match, as no such things exists: over the 2008/09 season they scored 115% of the average number of goals, and so their 'attack strength' was estimated at 1.15. Multiplying up we get 1.4 x 1.15 = 1.61. And their opposition will not be average either: their defence weakness is 0.96, since they conceded only 96% of the average last term we get a total of 1.4 x 1.15 x 0.96 = 1.55 expected goals by Aston Villa.

For Wigan, their baseline is 1.08, the average number of goals scored by an away team. But by the time we adjust this for Villa's attack strength and Wigan's defence weakness, we get 1.06 x 1.15 x 0.96 = 1.17. But, just like no family has 2.4 children, nobody scores 1.17 goals - this is only an expected value, the average if the match were played again and again. But we can use the Poisson distribution to distribute 100% of probability across the possible number of goals, which gives the probability distributions shown in the table:

Team

Expected Goals

0

1

2

3

4

5

Aston Villa

1.55

21.2

32.9

25.5

13.2

5.1

1.6

Wigan

1.17

31.0

36.3

21.2

8.3

2.5

0.6

So, if the match had followed past performance (using only the 2008/09 season as a guide) this model suggests there was a 21.2% probability that Aston Villa won't score at all, and 32.7% (100 - 31.0 -36.3) probability Wigan will get at least 2 goals, even though playing away. To get the probability of an actual result we might assume the goals scored by each team are independent. Therefore the most likely result was a 1-1 draw which has a 12% probability - 0.329*0.363, and you can work out precition for other results in the same way. The actual result was 2-0 to Wigan, a probablity of 0.212*0.212=4.5%.

This is a simple predictive model that doesn’t allow for correlations, such as the widely recognised pitch effect that shows that matches have some tendency to be either high or low scoring. It is also ignores situational factors – club circumstances, game status etc - and subjective evaluation of the change of each team during the transfer window. These are very important areas that in minor league games can gives punters an edge against bookmakers that is very hard to find in major leagues, given the expertise that modern bookmakers like Pinnacle Sports possess. If you want to beat the bookmakers at their own game, it is crucially important to get the best odds available, which will usually be found at Pinnacle.