The Blind Squirrel Draft Game

At the end of the NFL season, ESPN Page 2 Tuesday Morning Quarterback writer, Gregg Easterbrook does his review of media NFL predictions and basically comes to the conclusion that most predictions are garbage. I enjoy reading TMQ, if only because Easterbrook makes me feel less verbose.

Much to my surprise, I ended up being a part of this year’s “TMQ’s annual Bad Predictions Review:”

AOL Fanhouse ran an incredible meta-forecast with 17 separate sets of predictions. None had New Orleans winning the Super Bowl; none had Indianapolis reaching the Super Bowl; 10 of the 32 Super Bowl entrants forecast by AOL Fanhouse failed to make the playoffs; Houston sports-radio figure Stephanie Stradley forecast a Super Bowl of Steelers over Giants, and neither made the playoffs; former Associated Press NFL writer Dave Goldberg forecast the Colts to miss the playoffs.

I find this funny on a few different levels. Though I have been a guest on various Houston sports radio programs, I would only describe myself as a “Houston sports-radio figure” in my dreams. Also, my predictions ended up being pretty good on the conference level according to this list from The Big Lead that ranked the preseason predictions 8th out of 72. (My conference predictions also won my buddy Robert some money in his conference prediction pool. Nice.)

I think most predictions are a bunch of garbage because even if you had perfect information at that point in time, there are so much that is unpredictable as far as injuries, player development, etc. A lot of this preseason stuff is reader driven. Editors want you to make predictions on stuff because readers like arguing about it, so you make your prediction.

Stephanie Stradley – Houston, TX, US: Seems to me that during draft time of year, there is so much information out there on incoming players that it reduces the players to stereotypes and caricatures. That draftniks have to say something good and something bad just to keep their bases covered in case a player does well or doesn’t. Did you ever hear something about yourself in the draft process that really made you shake your head? What was the oddest thing you were asked or asked to do?

James Casey (12:58:52 PM): I would always shake my head when I heard people say that I couldn’t block. It wasn’t that I couldn’t block. I just wasn’t asked to at Rice with the way our offense operated. I don’t think the Texans coaches would’ve played me at fullback if I couldn’t block. During the draft process, I wasn’t asked anything crazy because I think they thought I was an older, more mature guy.

If you talk to just about any player about the combine process, they will tell you stories of bizarre things that were said about them that they have no idea where those things came from. And once something ends up on some draft site, that becomes part of the book on that player until he proves it differently on the NFL level.

To me, whether a player succeeds or fails on the next level has a lot to do with fit with the team, opportunity, and injury, along with their abilities, maturity and drive. There are so few players who are so good that they can survive a dysfunctional team. Andre Johnson is one of the few. You make the Pro Bowl twice with David Carr as your quarterback, you are an impressive human being.

One reason why there are so many busts at the top of the draft is that a number of those teams drafting so high are drafting high because they are bad organizations. That getting drafted at the bottom of the first round can be a great place for a good player to go because they typically are going to a good team, and that team will likely want to get a first round player some playing time.

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The Blind Squirrel Draft Game

It is really funny reading draft sites after the fact. I pulled this example out in the comments before, but this is a good one:

Compares To: REGGIE WHITE-ex-Philadelphia/Green Bay … To compare a player to White is something that can not be done without much consideration. But the more you see Okoye on game films, the more convinced you become that he will not only have a long, fruitful career, but will continue to grow both physically and mentally. He has such great fire and plays with the relentless pace that made White the measuring stick for all other defensive linemen. He has the low center of gravity to play over the head of the center, the speed and explosion to shoot the gaps and the quickness to even move out and attack on the edge. Okoye is The NFL Draft Report’s top-rated player for the 2007 draft.

This is what was said at the time about Amobi Okoye from a very read draft site. To put Reggie White on a player is very high praise, but c’mon, White was insanely good. And Okoye, is still not even old enough as Reggie White was when White entered the league. We don’t know what Okoye’s career is going to end up like, but Reggie White????!

I think that at this time of year, there tends to be a bias towards how amazing all these drafted players will be and sort of discounting experienced players who have already shown a bit what they can do.

I try to stay pretty skeptical of all draft talk. And then after the draft, try to figure out why the Texans drafted the players they did. Usually, it is pretty easy to see the reasoning.

Anyway, if you want to play The Blind Squirrel Draft Game, go to NFL Draft Scout, type in a year and a name, and find funny quotes about players. Please leave that in a comment here, with the link. There will be no prizes other than the applause and praise from other fans.

Oh, and of course, this post wouldn’t be complete without this fabulous YouTube (with apologies to commenter “Scotty the Menace”):