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IBM has recently announced that it has introduced a collection of recent enhancements to its XIV Storage equipment Gen3, including aid for a new strong state power (SSD) caching option, that is declared to increase device efficiency by means of up to thrice.

according to IBM, going for the IBM XIV SSD Caching option provides as much as 6TB of fast-read SSD storage to its systems, which is placed between the gadget reminiscence and difficult drives.

here is then used as a fast cache for probably the most commonly accessed information, thus dramatically reducing latency times when in comparison to mechanical storage.

"It comes down to saving purchasers time and cash with extremely productive, without difficulty managed, virtualized, and high-performing storage systems like XIV Gen3," concluded the enterprise’s rep.

apart from IBM XIV SSD Caching, IBM announced the ability to replicate records between previous versions of XIV and XIV Gen3 techniques, so that they can ease information migration and help supply valued clientele flexibility to repurpose their XIV fashions as disaster healing backup methods.

The XIV Storage system Gen3 changed into brought through IBM in the middle of remaining yr as a new generation of storage options designed to lower the entire can charge of possession, and enhance gadget performance by 4 times over the outdated mannequin.

With XIV Gen3, IBM also changed the system's Ethernet-based backplane with a high-efficiency InfiniBand backplane, that multiplied the equipment's interior bandwidth between modules by means of 40 times.

The XIV Storage equipment Gen3, along side its SSD Caching choice, is purchasable right now from IBM, with pricing being provided upon request.

Getting right to the point, I’m skeptical that the pink Hat (RHT) acquisition goes to be significant over the long-time period for IBM’s (IBM) enterprise or share cost. I worry that red Hat may additionally finish up being IBM’s (greater exactly Ginni Rometty’s) “Compaq”, as in Hewlett-Packard’s (NYSE:HPE) questionable buy of that company years in the past.

The argument that the “sum” of IBM + RedHat is more than the particular person ingredients is not above all effective in my opinion. i'm struggling to be mindful the enjoyable cost proposition offered by way of the mixed companies after analyzing the transcript of the analyst convention call that adopted the announcement. peculiarly, the generic concept that the joint expertise stacks by hook or by crook radically alternate the “calculus of the cloud” simply doesn’t make experience to me. for that reason, whereas some analysts have expressed situation over the $34 billion expense tag, my center of attention here is above all on IBM’s know-how arguments and market opportunity arguments used to justify the buy.

As a disclosure, I happened to dispose of my ultimate place in IBM in October of this year, as I began shedding shares a short while after I wrote IBM – A Turning or Sinking Ship in 2017. I additionally worked for IBM years in the past inside the methods administration division, long before the observe “cloud” existed within the terminology of common suggestions technology.

in the sections that observe, any referenced prices are pulled from the searching for Alpha transcript of IBM and purple Hat’s analyst conference call which followed the acquisition announcement, until in any other case noted. I’m additionally attaching the transcript to this report for comfort.

2.0 WHICH CLOUD IS IT

Ginni Rometty notes that “[IBM] will be the undisputed quantity [1] chief in hybrid-cloud….[with the acquisition of] crimson Hat, the realm’s main provider of open-cloud answer[s] and the rising chief within the platform for hybrid-cloud and multi-cloud.” Ms. Rometty, and different participants on the analyst call, use “hybrid-cloud” and “multi-cloud” terminology slightly interchangeably; however, I believe some definition is useful so as to add some precision to our evaluation.

Wikipedia offers a nice, succinct definition of multi-cloud:

Multi-cloud is the use of numerous cloud computing and storage features in a single heterogeneous structure.

We be aware that in a multi-cloud architecture, the clouds will also be public, deepest, or some mixture of both.

And here is IBM’s definition of “hybrid-cloud”:

A hybrid cloud uses a private cloud basis combined with the strategic integration and use of public cloud functions.

So, a hybrid-cloud uses as a minimum one deepest cloud, together with as a minimum one public cloud and as a consequence is exceptionally characterized via a non-public-public architecture. we can then think of a hybrid-cloud as a variety of a multi-cloud.

Multi-Cloud and Hybrid-Cloud Diagram

supply: Yves Sukhu

This difference is a little vital seeing that IBM stresses its potential to specially seize a huge share of the growing to be hybrid-cloud structure market by way of crimson Hat’s technologies.

three.0 QUESTIONABLE ASSUMPTIONS

With our definitions in hand, let’s verify why IBM is doing this deal. personally, the reasons expressed on the analyst name boil right down to an acquisition predicated upon three leading assumptions:

collectively, there is a unique synergy between IBM and pink Hat’s know-how stacks such that the mixture offers robust differentiation within the areas of hybrid-cloud and multi-cloud computing versus competing solutions from the likes of AWS (AMZN), Microsoft Azure (MSFT), Google Compute (GOOG), and so forth.

Hybrid-cloud and multi-cloud computing options will (doubtless) pressure better deal sizes and be greater profitable for IBM, with many enterprise valued clientele just starting to circulate the majority of their applications to heterogeneous cloud architectures.

The hybrid-cloud market goes to be value $1 trillion.

certainly, any flaws in these assumptions would weaken the premise for the deal itself. Let’s examine each and every.

three.1 FIRST ASSUMPTION: whatever OPEN, some thing exciting?

Ginni Rometty presents investors the following consumer requirement as a groundwork for the wedding with pink Hat:

“…The number one aspect [customers are] asserting to us is, hi there, we – these different clouds, they’re proprietary. We want an open solution [with] no lock-in. So circulation it across multiple cloud environments without a lock-in, [that’s] what the two of us do together…after which they are saying, it has acquired to address data security in a multi-cloud environment and then provide us a method to manipulate a multi-cloud atmosphere.”

There are a couple of issues to unpack here. Ms. Rometty means that “other” clouds are proprietary and there is a client requirement for “an open solution”. I don’t exactly remember what she’s getting at here. She implies within the quote that shoppers get “locked in” with (definite) cloud environments; but, as an alternative, these purchasers need to be able to stream their purposes with no trouble from cloud to cloud. i'm scratching my head because what Ms. Rometty’s “consumers” are calling lock-in seems to be regarding their software structure, and not the cloud atmosphere they're operating on. A poorly designed cloud application will be challenging to move no depend what cloud it is running on. The communicate is also true: a neatly-designed cloud application can be effortless(ier) to flow from one cloud to a different. I imagine many readers are established with the conception and expertise of containers, akin to Docker. For readers that may be unfamiliar with the term, I present an easy if somewhat imprecise explanation: containers provide a means to equipment all the “parts” that an software needs to run:

Illustration of Container conception

source: Docker/Datamation

As we see in the illustration above, a container can “include” whatever an utility should operate. In a little bit of an over-simplification, if we need to flow a containerized-utility from one cloud to a different, we just “carry” the container up from its current cloud and drop the container on the new cloud. Readers who may not be common with Docker and its container technology may be interested to notice that it begun as, and is, an open-source utility undertaking; the company also raised capital in late 2017 at a $1+ billion valuation.

So, increasing on the utility of containers:

“traditionally, purposes or workloads frequently needed to be rebuilt earlier than they may well be migrated to a further environment. The answer to here's container technology. in view that containers are remoted from neighboring containers and include every little thing they should run the application, which you could without difficulty movement them to one other [cloud] atmosphere with out compatibility complications.”

supply: Kumina

As this Datamation article notes, “it changed into…the…clients [of cloud services] who demanded that this know-how exist inside public clouds that drove the [container] innovations that now exist.” In different words, users desired a less complicated method to package and movement their purposes between clouds; and that in flip spurred the general public cloud suppliers (AWS, Azure, Google, IBM, and so forth.) to deliver container deployment elements and features.

One ultimate aspect to make about containers is that functions may additionally include several containers, in which case container orchestration utility is used to automate and simplify the management of all these containers. Kubernetes, a further open-source task at the start started at Google, is likely one of the ordinary orchestration techniques (with Docker Swarm for instance of another).

Coming returned to Ms. Rometty’s factor that consumers don’t want to be “locked in” and in its place want to be in a position to stream applications across distinctive cloud environments, they (consumers) can actually do this these days in the event that they design and deploy their functions as it should be, with containers as an instance of 1 know-how that can also be somewhat positive. She, in fact, makes this very factor mentioning “…[We] were building and we've been very concentrated on hybrid and multi-cloud…in accordance with open technologies. So we’ve constructed on containers, Kubernetes…[and] multi-cloud supervisor became simply introduced final week…” however, let’s be clear: the other essential cloud service providers (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft, and so on.) also offer container and container orchestration functions. accordingly, the IBM Cloud is not merely differentiated on this factor; yet, with the red Hat acquisition, IBM does gain purple Hat OpenShift which presents price-brought functionality developed round Docker and Kubernetes. while there changed into no certain dialogue on the analyst name, possibly IBM believes that its latest container management and cloud administration capabilities should be augmented in such a way by OpenShift as to leapfrog the competition when the usage of the “married” applied sciences for multi-cloud environments. but, if that’s genuine, why now not exceptionally speak concerning the capabilities that the mixed companies could have that should be sophisticated to others?

Frankly, it seems to me that IBM’s current cloud capabilities introduced to OpenShift aren't going to be a enormous “game changer”. first of all, any integration between IBM’s cloud expertise stack and crimson Hat’s will take some time; time which competitors will definitely use to their potential to make sure they aren't left behind. 2d, I’ve already cited that OpenShift is in keeping with Docker and Kubernetes which capability pink Hat’s value-add is constructed across the same core used through many others; but, the competition has and will continue to improve identical value-introduced offerings as neatly. Third, if there changed into some “killer” set of cloud functionalities that the combined stacks would generate, I’d want to believe the organizations would have made that clear; however they haven't (at least no longer yet). Fourth, there's nothing that “ties” OpenShift to the IBM Cloud; believe that purple Hat’s personal OpenShift deployment “choices” page – which I captured presently after the deal announcement – in reality highlights AWS as a deployment platform:

crimson Hat OpenShift Deployment Tiers

source: pink Hat

Now, red Hat also offers OpenStack, based on one other set of open-source applied sciences, which can be used by using groups to construct out their personal deepest clouds and has synergy with Ansible, red Hat’s language for DevOps. OpenStack therefore helps IBM’s initiatives round hybrid-cloud deployments. youngsters, as with OpenShift, I’m not fully convinced that putting this answer under an IBM umbrella is going to result in a particularly differentiated offering, nor to a unexpected acceleration of private cloud adoption among business consumers. First off, IBM already had its own solution stack in this area, IBM Cloud inner most. because IBM expressed such bullish sentiment in regards to the hybrid-cloud market on the analyst call, I’m in reality a bit shocked this particular solution offering turned into not outlined during the name. Assuming the hybrid-cloud enviornment is as “hot” as IBM suggests, one might are expecting that IBM inner most Cloud has been promoting smartly; why not call consideration to the technology then? this is in all probability a delicate factor and could be an improper extrapolation on my part, nevertheless it leads me to wonder if the hybrid-cloud market is as strong as IBM suggests it's, and should be. additionally as the in the past linked article notes, IBM is not by myself with an offering right here, nor have been they “first” to market with one. Microsoft added Azure Stack over a year before IBM introduced its competing answer to market. IBM might argue that Azure Stack, for example, is proprietary whereas their open-supply platform offers clients all of the freedom and benefits that open-source solutions give. It’s a rewarding argument, and it could greater strongly support Ms. Rometty’s remark that purchasers don’t want to be locked-in. in spite of everything, with an open-supply-based mostly private cloud platform, a consumer can alter and prolong it as they want, which without doubt isn't viable to the same extent with a closed solution. it would were helpful if IBM offered some facts points to take into account if a fashion towards open-source exists within the hybrid-cloud market, and chiefly for personal-cloud deployments. within the absence of details, i am left somewhat skeptical that crimson Hat OpenStack is going to materially exchange the “power” of IBM’s hybrid (private/public) cloud offering.

If we tie all of this back to Ms. Rometty’s quote at first of the part, it looks to make stronger that consumer comments round “an open [cloud] answer and not using a lock-in” seem somewhat invalid when for the reason that the applied sciences (e.g. containers, orchestration) which have already evolved to give cloud clients with the application portability that they want. The remark has stronger validity when one considers the architectural possibilities of a non-public cloud inside a hybrid-cloud ambiance; however, as I argue above, there looks to be an absence of information which would indicate purchasers lean towards non-proprietary (e.g. open-source-based mostly) deepest cloud deployments.

To summarize, I don’t (presently) see anything definitely wonderful that emerges through a mixture of both corporations’ cloud stacks. To be reasonable, the companies need time to improve tightly integrated solutions, and IBM is yet to follow the power of its construction organization against crimson Hat’s technologies. however, if I’m appropriate that “there isn't lots to see here” when it comes to the joint stacks, this perception would, of path, without delay undermine Ms. Rometty’s advice that both businesses might be a transparent leader, particularly in hybrid-cloud solutions.

three.2 2d ASSUMPTION: valued clientele are only GETTING started

Ms. Rometty mentions, more than once, that we're getting into a 2nd part of cloud adoption (“chapter 2” as she calls it). in the first part, consumers moved their “easiest” workloads to the cloud with a value-savings focal point. These workloads represented the universal Pareto-rule 20% of client purposes; and thus, 80% of purposes continue to be to be transitioned to the cloud. Ms. Rometty states:

“[Customers have] acquired to circulate [these remaining 80% of applications]. They both ought to rewrite, refactor, come to a decision what goes the place, comfortable the information. These are inhibitors that stop them from going [to the cloud]. So here is most effective going to be performed this move to the eighty%, in case you can circulate data and applications across dissimilar cloud[s], make that transportable…”

She continues…

“however here is an inflection element, and if [customers are] going to get past that and stream the other eighty% which is ready all their strategies and their statistics they want what we’re going to offer collectively, this amazing environment. And so this eighty% is…about…unlocking company price…the common shoppers has a thousand application[s] and the standard client already has 5…that we see some as many as many as sixteen clouds.”

the primary comment, “[customers have] got to move…”, is worth debating. common sense tells us that no longer all functions are always a fine fit for a cloud deployment for any variety of reasons: required dependencies aren't easily replicated in a cloud atmosphere, safety issues, lack of charge-discounts, and so forth. So, purchasers definitely don't have to move the bulk of their functions to a cloud architecture. despite the fact, in all probability Ms. Rometty is enjoying a little bit together with her words, and is asserting with slightly of “dressing” that the trend toward cloud adoption will proceed…which it evidently will.

however, I consider there's room to problem what she says within the following couple of statements. She explains that “[customers] both must rewrite, refactor, make a decision what goes the place…” certainly, IBM and different expertise suppliers will, as they already have, be afforded with opportunities to help customers migrate certain purposes to cloud environments. That’s respectable information for IBM’s very significant service company, and there's rationale to think the capabilities community will improvement a little bit from the pink Hat buy. These opportunities basically certainly grow in scope and salary/income potential to the extent that these purposes are migrated to highly allotted models working on (probably) heterogeneous cloud systems (e.g. multi-cloud). So, I believe Jim Kavanaugh, IBM’s CFO, as it should be stated that “[distributed cloud solutions] accelerates our mix shift to greater price...and is accretive to our gross earnings margin…”

however, there is a counter-argument to agree with here. in preference to rewriting/refactoring current legacy functions, purchasers can also as a substitute decide on “off-the-shelf” options (SaaS or in any other case) which may additionally show to be extra reasonably priced, modern, and simpler to keep. for instance, Salesforce.com (CRM) and Workday (WDAY) certainly didn’t obtain their market penetration as a result of shoppers opted to redesign any homegrown CRM and HR functions respectively. alas, IBM doesn’t discuss the COTS approach and its abilities have an effect on on their projections for growing their cloud linked revenues.

moving to IBM’s declare that multi-cloud environments could be extra customary in the future, as per Ms. Rometty’s commentary that “the regular client already has 5 [clouds]…”, there is some data to backup what the company is asserting right here: a TechRepublic survey from 2017, as an example, mentioned that almost all of companies surveyed had already adopted a hybrid-cloud structure. but, we comprehend that IT tends to circulate in cycles. believe about what came about with the customer-server computing paradigm where “server sprawl” at last gave strategy to server rationalization and a push for homogeneity among systems. Is it not possible that we may also see anything identical with cloud, where clients “wake up” sooner or later and ask themselves why they've 5 clouds after they should be would becould very well be capable of function with 1? agree with one of the crucial leading standards for the Pentagon’s latest $10 billion JEDI cloud task: they are (for the moment) insistent that the project award and linked computing workloads will go/run on a single cloud. As readers may comprehend, IBM is one of the bidders on the mission and formalized their objection to the executive Accountability workplace (GAO) for the requirement of a homogenous cloud environment. Assuming the Pentagon receives its way and is successful with its deployment, if the branch of protection (DOD) can function on a single cloud, then why does a given company need upwards of sixteen clouds (using the “excessive” instance from IBM’s quote)?

The overarching theme right here is that Ms. Rometty’s place that the “remaining” eighty% of legacy customer applications are only ready to be moved into a multi-cloud ambiance has susceptible points. besides the fact that it had been robust, I’m not certain IBM mandatory to spend $34 billion on red Hat to trap these opportunities. I already argued within the previous part that IBM had present capabilities in the equal cloud technology areas where purple Hat operates. If we think about Ms. Rometty’s remark about “rewriting/refactoring”, what does pink Hat present right here that IBM doesn't already have? here is work that sits squarely in the domain of IBM’s capabilities community; a group that may “plug in” purple Hat’s know-how, or any other cloud know-how, the place it makes sense according to consumer necessities.

however, the red Hat acquisition aside, if it seems that multi-cloud architectures at last “reduce” to more convenient, single cloud environments which supply enough robustness and reliability to satisfy most customer requirements, then this “cloud explanation” might have a dramatic have an effect on on IBM’s right-line and backside-line increase forecasts on account that the enterprise is tying each metrics exceptionally to its chance with “high-price” multi-cloud options.

three.3 THIRD ASSUMPTION: IS $1 TRILLION FOR HYBRID-CLOUD functional?

Ms. Rometty asserts that the marketplace for hybrid-clouds will grow to over $1 trillion. She states:

“And to lead within the 2nd chapter, this is going to be about hybrid-cloud. In hybrid-cloud is an rising $1 trillion market…I imply what we did turned into appear and we see a scale of a $1 trillion market…We mentioned to ourselves and perpetually stored asserting: What will we do enhanced to address the wants of our consumers? How do we accelerate our capacity to move after that? And knowing and there’s basically an important point, knowing that Linux is the quickest growing platform accessible. And this simply this year, it grew to become the number one platform each on-prem and within the cloud.”

right through the analyst name, there was no point out of exactly when the marketplace for hybrid cloud is expected to reach $1 trillion in price, nor the CAGR for this certain segment of the average cloud market. I struggled to discover first rate records in aid of IBM’s projection right here, youngsters Market analysis Media offers a forecast of $1 trillion for the whole cloud market by means of 2024. curiously, the Market analysis Media file synopsis highlights the quick growing/high precedence know-how segments in the cloud market, but multi-cloud and hybrid-cloud are not outlined in that context. this article, which was referenced in section 3.1, prices IBM in 2017 as asserting “they expect companies to spend greater than $50 billion a 12 months worldwide beginning [in 2017] to enhance deepest clouds, with the growth fee hitting 15 to 20 p.c a 12 months through 2020.” using these figures as a proxy for the universal hybrid-cloud market, it might without doubt take somewhat a while to attain $1 trillion in complete cost even on the excessive conclusion of the increase latitude.

One issue know-how leaders seem to be chiefly first rate at is developing with very giant numbers when describing their complete addressable market (TAM). Admittedly, I’m not bound if IBM’s estimate is realistic here or not since…who in reality knows right now how huge the hybrid-cloud market could turn into? In aid of IBM’s forecast, the prior to now mentioned article notes that “earlier [in 2017], IDC analysts launched a survey that indicated that very nearly eighty p.c of significant organizations with 1,000 or extra personnel have already got a hybrid cloud approach in area. additionally, 51.4 percent are the use of each public and personal cloud infrastructures, and 29.2 p.c expect to do the equal in the subsequent yr.” These metrics are positive to support IBM’s argument, however they might even be interpreted to indicate that the majority large shoppers have already got a hybrid-cloud in location, and for that reason new hybrid-cloud deployments may basically reduce relocating ahead. further, if we bear in mind the discussion in part three.2 around valued clientele choosing COTS/SaaS purposes, as neatly as the chance that single cloud architectures might sooner or later set up themselves because the dominant model, then it’s conceivable that a $1 trillion hybrid-cloud market may no longer materialize.

four.0 CONCLUSION

“Whoa” became supposedly Steve Ballmer’s (former Microsoft CEO) reaction upon listening to concerning the IBM-purple Hat deal. in all probability that single word ultimate describes the existing sentiment of many others.

The main thrust of what I’ve presented listed here is that i am nevertheless struggling to have in mind what key technologies IBM gets with pink Hat that they didn’t already have, and why they felt they needed to spend 1/3 of their market cap on a corporation that is just producing a couple of hundred million in cloud solution revenue (although their growth fee is excessive). nonetheless, the “math” doesn’t add up for me, besides the fact that children most likely it'll in time as IBM and crimson Hat better clarify their exciting price proposition.

Readers may rightfully point out that I’ve disregarded the potentialities for red Hat Linux and their middleware stack under IBM in my analysis. In regard to the latter, I think IBM’s possession of red Hat’s middleware stack is likely to create some confusion, as a minimum in the brief time period. IBM and pink Hat will certainly ought to work out the way to place WebSphere versus JBoss. And as different authors have advised, pink Hat enterprise Linux (RHEL) may at last supplant AIX as IBM’s de facto UNIX distribution. The connected migration work would possibly power a good quantity of know-how and help services. Ms. Rometty mentioned in one of the prior to now mentioned rates that Linux is the quickest becoming working device in the cloud and on-premise. but, notice that she did not say that RHEL is the fastest transforming into Linux distribution. To that conclusion, there is a few records suggesting that Ubuntu is growing quicker in the enterprise Linux section. devoid of greater information from IBM and pink Hat, it’s in fact reasonably difficult to quantify the have an impact on of crimson Hat’s Linux and JBoss product units to IBM over the lengthy-time period.

As mentioned, I are expecting that IBM and red Hat will deliver better clarity on the strategic price-add of the 2 groups as we flow into 2019, and the way they intend to mix their stacks to more desirable compete against the likes of AWS, Microsoft, and Google. i'm hoping they do; as a result of evidently traders will ship the stock lower (than it already is) if most develop into satisfied the sum of the groups lacks incremental price. Yet, while IBM/red Hat provide further details to the market, as I’ve outlined herein there are a few counter-arguments which undermine the assumptions that this deal is based upon. in my opinion, the calculus of the cloud stays the equal in the meanwhile.

aiding documents

ibm_redhat_acquisition_transcript.pdf

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks outlined, and no plans to initiate any positions within the subsequent 72 hours.

I wrote this text myself, and it expresses my own opinions. i'm not receiving compensation for it (apart from from seeking Alpha). I have no company relationship with any business whose inventory is mentioned in this article.

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