Networked tribes, system disruption and the emerging bazaar of violence. A blog about the future of conflict.

Thursday, 26 August 2004

UPDATE: HALLIBURTON TARGETING

As nation-states continue their drive to become more efficient, they increasingly resort to private corporations to provide critical services. These services are core to the US reconstruction and security effort in Iraq. However, because these services are market-based, they offer global guerrillas substantial leverage for disruption (see Target: Halliburton for more). A proven methodology at work in Iraq and Saudi Arabia is to target employees of "Halliburton" companies providing this support. These attacks have drained both countries of needed expertise, radically increased costs (increased security, insurance, etc. have drained billions), driven away new investment (as well as market participants), and trashed operational tempo. The interesting aspect of this is how few real casualties are required to destabilize a market. The attached graph demonstrates the low level of fatalities that have been inflicted on "Halliburton" employees and how little real effort it takes global guerrillas to inflict damage through the use of these new tactics. In fact, the total number of fatalities has even declined over the last four months. The reasons for this include:

A shift to hostage taking. The media attention gained through hostage dramas has made simple assaults less effective in comparison. Numerous corporate withdrawals in exchange for the release of employees held hostage have reinforced this.

More and smarter security. Secure enclaves, guarded convoys, and more have reduced the number of fatalities. However, this has been done at huge expense to both efficiency and tempo. This has reduced the number of fatalities from private security companies (and reflects the bulk of the decline).

Fewer targets. In general, Halliburton targeting has been a success. Many companies have withdrawn their employees from Iraq or ceased operations in the country. Reconstruction is proceeding at a snail's pace. The current rate of attacks can be seen as a maintenance effort to ensure the continuation of market destabilization.

Comments

UPDATE: HALLIBURTON TARGETING

As nation-states continue their drive to become more efficient, they increasingly resort to private corporations to provide critical services. These services are core to the US reconstruction and security effort in Iraq. However, because these services are market-based, they offer global guerrillas substantial leverage for disruption (see Target: Halliburton for more). A proven methodology at work in Iraq and Saudi Arabia is to target employees of "Halliburton" companies providing this support. These attacks have drained both countries of needed expertise, radically increased costs (increased security, insurance, etc. have drained billions), driven away new investment (as well as market participants), and trashed operational tempo. The interesting aspect of this is how few real casualties are required to destabilize a market. The attached graph demonstrates the low level of fatalities that have been inflicted on "Halliburton" employees and how little real effort it takes global guerrillas to inflict damage through the use of these new tactics. In fact, the total number of fatalities has even declined over the last four months. The reasons for this include:

A shift to hostage taking. The media attention gained through hostage dramas has made simple assaults less effective in comparison. Numerous corporate withdrawals in exchange for the release of employees held hostage have reinforced this.

More and smarter security. Secure enclaves, guarded convoys, and more have reduced the number of fatalities. However, this has been done at huge expense to both efficiency and tempo. This has reduced the number of fatalities from private security companies (and reflects the bulk of the decline).

Fewer targets. In general, Halliburton targeting has been a success. Many companies have withdrawn their employees from Iraq or ceased operations in the country. Reconstruction is proceeding at a snail's pace. The current rate of attacks can be seen as a maintenance effort to ensure the continuation of market destabilization.

On Brave New War

G. Gordon Liddy Show (radio)...this is a seminal book in the truest sense of the term.. way ahead of the curve... go out and buy it right now -- G. Gordon Liddy

City JournalRobb has written an important book that every policymaker should read -- Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit)

Small Wars JournalWithout reservation Brave New War is for professional students of irregular warfare and for any citizen who wants to understand emerging trends and the dark potential of 4GW -- Frank Hoffman

Scripps Howard News ServiceA brilliant new book published by terrorism expert John Robb, titled "Brave New War," hit stores last month with virtually no fanfare. It deserves both significant attention and vigorous debate... - Thomas P.M. Barnett

Chet Richards DNIJohn has produced an important book that should help jar the United States and other legacy states out of their Cold War mindset. You can read it in a couple of hours – so you should read it twice...

Washington Times / UPIRobb correctly finds the antidote to 4GW not in Soviet-style state structures such as the Department of Homeland Security, but in decentralization -- William Lind (the father of 4th generation warfare).

Robert PatersonHaving painted a crystal clear picture of how a war of networks is playing out, he comes to an astonishing conclusion that I hope he fills out in his next book.

The Daily DishJohn Robb of Global Guerrillas has written the most important book of the year, Brave New War. - Daily Dish (The Atlantic)

Simulated LaughterWell-written. Brave New War reads more like an action novel than a ponderous policy book. - Adam Elkus

FutureJackedGo buy a copy of this book. Now. If you are low on cash, skip a few lunches and save up the cash. It is worth it. - Michael Flagg

ZenPunditThe second audience is composed of everyone else. Brave New War is simply going to blow them away. - Mark Safranski

Haft of the SpearThere aren’t a lot of books that make me recall a 12-year-old self aching for the next issue of The Invincible Iron Man to hit the shelves. Well done.
- Michael Tanji

Ed ConeHis book posits an Army of Davids -- with the traditional nation state in the role of Goliath. - Ed Cone (Ziff Davis)

Shloky.comThis is the first real text on next generation warfare designed for the general population and it sets the bar high for following acts. It is smart, it is a short read, and it will change your thinking. - Shlok Vaidya

Politics in the ZerosI suggest this is something Lefties need to start thinking about now, as that decentralized world is coming. - Bob Morris