Storm Activity

FEATURED ARTICLES ABOUT STORM ACTIVITY - PAGE 2

Compared with last year's frenzied July, this one should be a picnic. While it's no guarantee the entire hurricane season will be calm, this month might see one or two named storms, which would be normal, forecasters said. Last July saw five named storms, including three hurricanes, the most active on record. It helped make 2005 the busiest year on record, with 28 storms, including 15 hurricanes. What's different this year: Strong upper-level winds are inhibiting tropical systems from forming, said Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist for The Weather Underground, a weather-tracking Web site.

With everyone from athletes to university presidents and oil company executives demanding top salaries, it's refreshing to see someone of experience accept the job for the challenge, not the money. That's what seems to motivate Bill Proenza, who takes over as National Hurricane Center director at a time when the nation is expected to undergo a prolonged period of storm activity. The job is exhausting and stressful, with long work hours, constant media attention and the pressure to keep a fickle public alert but calm.

It's mid-August and South Florida has yet to contend with a major tropical storm. Expert forecasters have lowered their predictions for this year's storm activity. Ocean temperatures are cooler and wind shear is stronger than last year. What does all that add up to? A dangerous situation, because many South Floridians may believe it's time to breathe easy and take hurricane preparations off their radar. The ghosts of August hurricanes Andrew and Katrina pack a powerful message: Wake up, people!

The badly polluted water spewing out of Lake Okeechobee and into household faucets, spotlighted in Neil Santaniello's recent article, underscores the critical need for restoring America's Everglades. Lake Okeechobee is today a murky, coffee-colored mess filled with harmful sediments thanks to Big Sugar continuing to dump its polluted water into the lake. Last year's devastating hurricanes complicated any effort at keeping pollutants out of the lake. All of this could have been avoided had state and federal authorities moved deliberately with Everglades restoration efforts.

Next year likely would be busy again because the Atlantic and Caribbean still have abnormally warm waters, the main ingredient that fuels storm activity, says professor William Gray in Wednesday's front-page article, "who admits his initial forecast for the past season was overinflated." Research meteorologist Stanley Goldberg, in the same front-page article, said that it's possible this year was part of a lull that might continue for another year, or a "cycle within a cycle." They might as well say that they are not sure, that they guess that various weather phenomena may or may not take place.

Town commissioners tentatively approved a $3.99 per $1,000 tax rate, but Mayor Oliver Parker says it will probably be reduced. Last year's rate, and the rate for the previous two years, was $3.85 per $1,000. Parker says commissioners usually set it higher and then lower it during budget hearings in September. He says that probably will happen this year, too. "This is the third year in a row we've done this," Parker said. Parker said commissioners set the rate higher initially, in case a hurricane hits during August -- one of the peak months for storm activity -- requiring unexpected costs for the city.

A noted hurricane predictor has more bad news for Andrew-weary South Florida. "We`ll have a more active hurricane year next year," said William Gray, a Colorado State University professor of atmospheric sciences. "I know the people in South Florida won`t want to hear this." Gray, who predicts storm activity but not where storms will hit, said next year should be busier than this year because the Pacific Ocean is cooling a bit, upper stratospheric winds are shifting to more favorable conditions, and a drought in Africa should end. Earlier this month, Gray updated his annual forecast to predict that this year would be slower than normal, but the tropics and subtropics -- especially those between latitudes 25 degrees north and 30 degrees north -- would get more storms than last year, when they had none.

Don't count on El Nino to hold down the number of hurricanes this season. Although NASA satellites detected the return of the warm-water phenomenon to the Pacific coast of South America last week, it may be too little, too late to put a damper on tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. Researchers say other indicators, including projected West African rainfall, wind patterns and Atlantic sea surface temperatures, still point toward a busier than average year. At Friday's closing session of the Governor's Hurricane Conference in Tampa, atmospheric scientist Bill Gray stuck with his earlier forecast that 11 named storms, including seven hurricanes, would develop in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean between now and Nov. 30. Three of the storms are predicted to be intense, with winds greater than 110 mph. Gray, a prominent Colorado State University professor who has issued annual forecasts since 1985, considered raising his storm totals, despite El Nino, before deciding to stand pat. "El Nino is only one factor," Gray said.

Now that the 2005 hurricane season has come to a close, I have to wonder if preparing a disaster plan is a priority for Parkland. Having survived boil-water orders, downed traffic signals, blocked roads, residents without power for weeks and no effective means of communication throughout the city, there should be an effort under way now to be proactive in planning for the next disaster. The city should not be dependent upon the Federal Emergency Management Agency to take care of its residents.

Is it global warming? No one knows for sure, but there's mounting evidence that climate change may be contributing to more active and intense hurricane seasons. This season, there have already been 12 named storms, two more than in an entire "normal" season. But "normal" may have to be redefined. Both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and noted hurricane expert William Gray predict a "hyperactive" season, with 20 or more named storms before it ends in November. Moreover, this season had more early-season storms than any other and is only the second time two major hurricanes had formed by the end of July.