Synopsis

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi tells the story of the attack of the CIA Annex in Benghazi, Libya, on September 11, 2012, which killed four Americans. After the invasion, an American Special Ops team is sent to the Annex to protect the lives of those still alive who were caught within the compound.

There are not a lot of first-run releases on this week's list and none that are contenders for Pick of the Week. That's not to say there are no contenders, but they come from catalog releases, TV on DVD, etc. Buster Keaton: The Shorts Collection 1917-1923 on Blu-ray tops that list. However, I'm going with Mustang on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack as the Pick of the Week. The screener arrived late, but it was worth it.
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Gods of Egypt had the best showing among new releases from its Thursday previews; however, best is being used as a relative term, as it only managed $800,000. By comparison, 13 Hours pulled in $900,000 earlier this year. If the film’s reviews hurt its word of mouth, and I can’t imagine they won’t, then we are looking at a domestic total of about $40 million on a $140 million production budget. In fact, it will likely make less during its opening weekend than the $15.3 million reportedly spend on TV ads leading up to its release.
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As anticipated, Ride Along 2 earned first place over the long weekend earning more than it cost to make in just four days. The other two wide releases were less successful. Despite costing more to make, 13 Hours earned less than half Ride Along 2 opened with, while the less said about Norm of the North, the better. Star Wars: The Force Awakens was pushed into third place over the three-day weekend, but it rose to first place on the daily chart on Monday. It is not done yet. The overall, the three-day weekend was up 4.2% from last weekend; however, it was down 18% from last year. This is not surprising, as this weekend last year, American Sniper set the record for biggest January weekend. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $693 million, giving 2016 an early lead over 2015. That lead was cut to 5.9% or $39 million and will likely be cut further next weekend. Hopefully it won't be entirely gone.
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Ride Along 2 started its box office run with $1.26 million in Thursday night previews. This is better than the $1.06 million in previews Ride Along managed and that's a good sign for its weekend total. Maybe it will top the original with $50 million over four days. Or maybe the reviews will kill its legs. We will know more tomorrow when Friday's estimates come in.
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Star Wars: The Force Awakens will finally relinquish its hold on the weekend box office and there are three new releases looking to grab as much of the box office share as they can. Ride Along 2 is the film with the best shot at first place, assuming its reviews don't kill it. The Revenant should have one of the best week-to-week declines, thanks in part to its Awards Season success. 13 Hours looks like a solid top-five film, but not a major hit, while Norm of the North is just hoping not to embarrass itself. This weekend last year, American Sniper expanded wide and set the record for biggest January weekend. That record fell earlier this year, but that's not a lot of comfort for this weekend, as all three new releases combined won't match American Sniper's haul. 2016's winning streak will end at two weeks. Hopefully the upcoming losing streak won't be much longer than that.
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It is a busier weekend next week with three wide releases. However, Ride Along 2 will likely earn more than 13 Hours and Norm of the North will earn combined. As such, it is the clear choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ride Along 2.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two DVDs.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two DVDs.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two DVDs.

Next weekend is a long weekend, but remember, we only are concerned with the three-day, Friday through Sunday box office number.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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2016 will begin the same way 2015 ended, with Star Wars: The Force Awakens on top. In fact, three of the five films that have the best shot at box office success in January are The Force Awakens, The Hateful Eight, and The Revenant, all of which opened in December. There are two true January releases that could also do really well, for this time of year: Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3. The rest of the releases are just hoping to become midlevel hits. Last January, American Sniper dominated earning more than $300 million. Its success could prevent 2016 from being ahead in the year-over-year comparison by the end of the month, but this year does have better depth.
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The shaded area represents the expected performance range for a film, based on its opening weekend box office. 95% of films fall within the shaded area. If a film trends towards the top end of the shaded area, it has good legs compared to the average film; if it trends towards the bottom end of the shaded area, it has poor legs. The predictive area is based on movies from the past 5 years.

Full financial estimates for this film, including domestic and international box office, video sales, video rentals, TV and ancillary revenue
are available through our research services. For more information, please contact us at research@the-numbers.com.