Ultimately, the decision to liberalize visas for Turkish nationals is supposed to be merit-based. However, there are concerns that the decision might become politicized. The EU member states would garner economic benefits from the freer movement for Turkish nationals. The fear that Turkish nationals would violate the terms of visa-free travel lacks evidentiary support. A greater recognition of this reality is likely to enhance Turkey’s confidence in the EU’s credibility. In turn, this would motivate the Turkish government to implement its end of the deal with greater conviction, especially the part that requires Turkey to combat irregular transit migration of third-country nationals to the EU.

* Kemal Kirişci is the TÜSİAD senior fellow and director of the Center on the United States and Europe’s Turkey Project at Brookings, with an expertise in Turkish foreign policy and migration studies. Sinan Ekim is a recent graduate of the London School of Economics and a research assistant at the Istanbul Policy Centre, working on the Institute’s Global Turkey in Europe and Project on the Middle East and Arab Springs projects.