Thursday, August 10, 2017

Thanks
to Alex Wallerstein and hisNukemap, we can get a sense of
the impact of a current North Korean nuclear weapon on the United States should
a ballistic missile penetrate U.S. airspace.

The
first thing that you need to know about nuclear weapons is that they can be
detonated in four ways; an air burst where the device is detonated at less than
30 km above the earth's surface, surface burst where the weapon is detonated at
or slightly above the earth's surface, subsurface burst where the detonation
takes place below the surface of the land or water or a high altitude burst
where the weapon is detonated at an altitude above 30 km above the earth's
surface. For a ground burst or low altitude atmospheric burst, there arethree types
of destructive energy created:

1.)
50 percent of the energy is created by the blast itself.

2.)
35 percent of the energy is thermal radiation including infrared, visible,
ultraviolet and soft x-ray.

3.)
15 percent of the energy is nuclear radiation including 5 percent ionizing
radiation made up of neutrons and gamma rays and 10 percent residual nuclear
radiation.

Air
bursts are most likely to be used against ground forces since initial nuclear
radiation is much higher than in a surface burst except in the region around
the surface burst's ground zero. High altitude bursts created ionizing
radiation can be used to disrupt communication and electrical/electronic
networks.

Here
is a graphic showing the chronological development of an air burst:

Obviously,
the yield of a weapon has a significant impact on the damage that results from
a nuclear detonation. The yield of the "Little Boy" atomic bomb
(airburst) dropped on Hiroshima was between 13 and 18 kilotons of TNT withJohn Malik at the Los
Alamos National Laboratorycalculating
the yield at 15 kilotons with an uncertainty range of 20 percent. The
"Fat Man" which was dropped on Nagasaki had a yield of 21 kilotons
with an uncertainty range of 10 percent. Hereis a table showing the total
casualties for both cities:

In
Hiroshima, 95 percent of deaths were because of burns, 30 percent because of
falling debris and 10 percent were caused by other factors. In Nagasaki, 95 percent of
deaths were because of burns, 9 percent because of falling debris, 7 percent
because of flying glass and 7 percent were caused by other factors.

Now, let's look at North Korea's nuclear capabilities. According
to asummary
by Larry Greenmeierat
Scientific American, his calculations suggest that the 2016 North Korean
nuclear test weapon had a yield of between 3.4 to 7 kilotons based on the
amplitude of the seismic waves created by the blast. Accurate estimates
are nearly impossible because Western scientists are not privy to key
information; the depth of the blast and the physical properties of the rock
surrounding the explosion. Other estimates of previous test detonations have
varied widely with Russia's Defense Ministry stating that the blast in 2009 may
have had a yield as high as 15 to 20 kilotons, the same size as the weapons
used at the end of the Second World War. According to theNuclear
Threat Initiative, the September 2016 test had a yield of35
kilotons, more than twice the yields of the January 2016 and February 2013
tests.

Let's
put the other part of the equation into play. According to the Pentagon,
North Korea's latest ICBM tests suggest that the North Koreans now have a
missile with a potential range of10,400
kilometres or 6500 miles. Here is a table showing the distance of
major American cities from North Korea:

Let's
make the following reasonable assumptions:

1.)
North Korea has developed a nuclear weapon with a 15 kiloton yield.

2.)
North Korea has developed a ballistic missile that is capable of reaching a
distance of 10,000 kilometres but for the purposes of this posting, we'll
assume that they are only targeting cities on the west coast. This would
mean that the missile could reach San Francisco, Los Angeles, Portland and
Seattle.

Now,
let's look at the damage that can be done with a 15 kiloton airburst weapon
over the downtown core of each of the four previously mentioned West coast
cities with the following effects radii:

1.)
Los Angeles:

In
total, there would be an estimated 88,540 fatalities and 186,830 injuries.

2.)
San Francisco:

In
total, there would be an estimated 158,050 fatalities and 200,380
injuries.

3.)
Portland:

In
total, there would be an estimated 57,920 fatalities and 95,210 injuries.

4.)
Seattle:

In
total, there would be an estimated 97,800 fatalities and 86,930 injuries.

At the present time, while the odds of a North Korean nuclear weapon actually making it to the North
American coast and being successfully detonated are rather remote, as you can see from this posting, the results of a successful detonation over a densely populated urban area would be rather
sobering. Even worse than a surface or air burst is the prospect of an
atmospheric burst and resulting electromagnetic pulse which would result in
significant destruction of the North American electrical and communications
infrastructure. Either way, it would be a very different future than
we've come to expect. ...and, should the worst case scenario transpire, remember this:

3 comments:

Windblown radiation could kill many.Now that we have 3 electric grids that are tied together, Eastern, Western and Texas grids, it is possible ALL of America could lose power, killing me and most of you.

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About Me

I have been an avid follower of the world's political and economic scene since the great gold rush of 1979 - 1980 when it seemed that the world's economic system was on the verge of collapse. I am most concerned about the mounting level of government debt and the lack of political will to solve the problem. Actions need to be taken sooner rather than later when demographic issues will make solutions far more difficult. As a geoscientist, I am also concerned about the world's energy future; as we reach peak cheap oil, we need to find viable long-term solutions to what will ultimately become a supply-demand imbalance.