Tuesday, February 04, 2014

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for December. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for November. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

Year over year, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 11 percent in December 2013 compared to December 2012. This change represents the 22nd consecutive monthly year-over-year increase in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, decreased by 0.1 percent in December 2013 compared to November 2013.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 9.9 percent in December 2013 compared to December 2012 and 0.2 percent month over month compared to November 2013. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that January 2014 home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase 10.2 percent year over year from January 2013. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to dip 0.8 percent from December 2013 to January 2014.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was down seasonally 0.1% in December, and is up 11.0% over the last year. This index is not seasonally adjusted, and the month-to-month changes will be negative for a few months.

The index is off 18.0% from the peak - and is up 21.8% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012.

The second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for twenty two consecutive months suggesting house prices bottomed early in 2012 on a national basis (the bump in 2010 was related to the tax credit).

This is a smaller year-over-year gain than in October or November, and I expect the year-over-year price increases to slow in the coming months.