Sunday, January 26, 2014

From his early days in "Cat on a Hot Tin Roof" and "The Hustler", to his iconic roles in "Cool Hand Luke", Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid" and "The Sting", through his crowd favorites "The Towering Inferno" and "Slap Shot", all the way to his later roles in "Color of Money", "Road to Perdition" and "Cars", Paul Newman remained one of Cinema's singular icons for decades.

He also used his celebrity to draw attention to causes that were important to him and through his Newman's Own charity raised over 400 Million Dollars (and counting).

A lot of people will tell you that whoever wins the Directors Guild award tonight will go on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. I think no matter what happens, "12 Years a Slave" will win Best Picture. Here's why. Even though I think Alfonso Cuarón will win the DGA tonight for "Gravity", I think it is too far behind to catch up to "12 Years". Same goes for "American Hustle". Here's my rationale. First off, here's how I think DGA will go...

1. Alfonso Cuarón for “Gravity”

2. Steve McQueen for “12 Years a Slave”

3. David O. Russell for “American Hustle”

4. Martin Scorsese for “The Wolf of Wall Street”

5. Paul Greengrass for “Captain Phillips”

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if anyone wins tonight, other than Paul Greengrass. In the end though, "Gravity" will take it.

Next Saturday the Writers Guild (WGA) will announce their winners, which I predict will go to "Her" and "Wolf of Wall Street". That following Friday the ACE Eddies will be announced where I predict "American Hustle" and "Gravity" will win. This will be the point in the race where the three front runner are almost at a complete three-way tie. That only leaves two events left for the Awards Season, the BAFTA's and the Film Independent Spirit Awards. "12 Years a Slave" will win both of them. It will come down to the last minute, but in the end, "12 Years a Slave" will be your Best Picture of the Year, because IT IS the Best Picture of the Year!

Also being awarded tonight is the Best Director award for documentaries, and I predict "The Act of Killing" will continue to dominate the category. It's available to watch now on Netflix right now, by the way, as are three other Academy Award nominated Docs from this year.

1. Joshua Oppenheimer for “The Act of Killing”

2. Jehane Noujaim for “The Square”

3. Zachary Heinzerling for “Cutie and the
Boxer”

4. Sarah Polley for “Stories We Tell”

5. Lucy Walker for “The Crash Reel”

What do you think? Leave your comments below or tweet me @FiveStarFlicks

Friday, January 24, 2014

This year
marks only the fourth time since 2000 that the Screen Actors Guild (SAG),
Producers Guild (PGA) and LIKELY the Directors Guild (DGA) will award three
different movies with their top prize. “American Hustle” won the SAG Ensemble
award to much fanfare this year, only to be shut out by the “tie heard round the
world” at the PGA’s, where “Gravity” and “12 years a Slave” split the prize. If
history is any indicator, this weekend’s winner at the Directors Guild will be
in great shape for a Best Picture Oscar win. Here’s the full breakdown of the
last three times the guilds were split three different ways, and how the
Writers Guild (WGA) and Editors Guild (ACE) may play a role.

“Million
Dollar Baby” went on to win Best Director and Best Picture Oscars. DGA predicted Best Picture winner.

So if you
weren’t keeping track, here’s the breakdown…

DGA predicted the Best Picture Oscar winner 2
out of 3 times (67%).

PGA, WGA and ACE predicted the Best Picture
Oscar 1 out of 3 times (33%).

SAG never went on to predict the Best Picture
Oscar winner (0 out of 3, 0%).

If “Gravity”
or “12 Years a Slave” go on to win the DGA as predicted, they will be in a very
good position to take the Oscar come March. “American Hustle” on the other
hand, with only SAG under its belt, will officially fall to third place, after
starting out in front initially.

OR… The DGA
throws a wrinkle into the whole thing and goes with Martin Scorsese and “The
Wolf of Wall Street, making it truly the most wide open race this century! Not going
to happen, but I can always hope.

Here’s the
full grid of all 5 Guilds, from 2000 all the way up until this year’s awards…

BEST PICTURE WINNER

SAG

WINNER

PGA

WINNER

DGA

WINNER

WGA

WINNER

ACE

WINNER

# OF

FILMS

Gladiator (2000)

N (Traffic)

W

N (Crouching Tiger,

Hidden Dragon)

NA (You Can Count On Me
& Traffic)

W (+Almost Famous)

5

A Beautiful Mind (2001)

N (Gosford Park)

N (Moulin Rouge!)

W

W (+Gosford Park)

N (Blackhawk Down

+Moulin Rouge!)

4

Chicago (2002)

W

W

W

N (The Hours

+Bowling for Columbine)

W (+Gangs of New York)

4

Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)

W

W

W

N (American Splendor

+Lost in Translation)

W (+Pirates of the
Caribbean)

4

Million Dollar Baby (2004)

N (Sideways)

N (The Aviator)

W

N (Sideways +Eternal
Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)

N (The Aviator

+Ray)

5

Crash (2005)

W

N (Brokeback Mountain)

N (Brokeback

Mountain)

W (+Brokeback Mountain)

W (+Walk the Line)

3

The Departed (2006)

N (Little Miss Sunshine)

N (Little Miss Sunshine)

W

W (+Little Miss Sunshine)

W (Tied w/ Babel

+Dreamgirls)

4

No Country For Old Men (2007)

W

W

W

W (+Juno)

N (The Bourne Ultimatum

+Sweeney Todd)

4

Slumdog Millionaire (2008)

W

W

W

W (+Milk)

W (+Wall-E)

3

The Hurt Locker (2009)

N (Inglorious Basterds)

W

W

W (+Up In The Air)

W (+The Hangover)

4

The King's Speech 2010)

W

W

W

NA (Inception &

The Social Network)

N (The Social Network

+Alice in Wonderland)

4

The Artist (2011)

N (The Help)

W

W

NA (Midnight in Paris
& The Descendants)

W (+The Descendants)

4

Argo (2012)

W

W

W

W (+Zero Dark Thirty)

W (+Silver Linings
Playbook)

3

??? (2013)

American Hustle

Gravity &

12 Years a Slave

???

???

???

WON

7 WINS

9 WINS

11 WINS

7 WINS

9 WINS

NOMINATED

13 NOMS

13 NOMS

13 NOMS

10 NOMS

13 NOMS

WINNING PERCENT

54% WIN

69% WIN

85% WIN

54% WIN

69% WIN

NOMINATED PERCENT

100% NOM

100% NOM

100% NOM

77% NOM

100% NOM

What do you
think? Leave your comments below or tweet me @FiveStarFlicks