The Trib had a piece this weekend about how the Pirates will place some extra focus on their pitchers’ offense this spring. That was a welcome sight to me, because just off the top of my head, that’s definitely been a big weakness for the Pirates – not just pitchers being bad at hitting in general, but far worse than other teams’ pitchers. For a while I’ve figured this was sort of an under-rated problem for the Pirates that they could really benefit from correcting.

The numbers do agree that it’s an issue, although it wasn’t quite as bad as I thought in 2014. Pirates pitchers had the worst strikeout rate in the league, 41.1%, and hit .100/.135/.113, good for 12th out of 15 in the NL in wOBA.

But is it really that big of a deal? As this CBS article pointed out, those numbers accounted for -0.7 WAR. The NL average was about -0.2. The best hitting pitchers in the NL (the Dodgers) posted 1.5 WAR – so if the Pirates were to make that jump all the way up to the best, it would be about a two-win swing. Two wins could be huge – the Pirates lost the NL Central by two games last year – but that’s a best case scenario. It’s not as big of an impact as I initially guessed, and besides, the Pirates’ starting pitching staff is mostly the same this year, adding A.J. Burnett and subtracting Edinson Volquez. Maybe that’s a slight improvement in hitting ability (Volquez was awful) but not much. A little extra BP is not going to turn the likes of Liriano, Morton, and Locke into sluggers.

On the other hand, one area where that group can definitely improve is the sacrifice bunt. Bucs pitchers bunted at a 56.3% success rate (36/64), not good but not far behind the NL average of 60.3%. A mere handful of additional successful bunts would have made them an above average team, so that doesn’t appear to be a place where they left a ton of runs on the table. The same goes for productive outs, a stat measured by Baseball Reference. There just aren’t enough of these opportunities for an improvement to help all that much. Last year the pitchers were 22/84 (22.6%), while league average (for all positions, not just pitchers) was 31%…so getting to that mark would take a grand total of four additional productive outs. Maybe that turns out to be significant in some individual situations, but not in the grand scheme over 162 games. It’s also worth noting that Volquez was the best “productive out producer” at 62%, so replacing him with Burnett (1/9 last year) will likely hurt the cause a bit.

So in the end, this turned out to be a fairly long, number-heavy look at something that doesn’t matter very much. Yes, the Pirates have room to get better when it comes to pitcher’s offense, but a modest improvement probably wouldn’t change things much. I’m glad to hear they are trying to address it, but it isn’t some huge opportunity/market inefficiency they are missing out on, and it probably isn’t even worth subtracting any significant time from legitimate pitching work/preparation.

]]>http://raisethejollyroger.com/2015/02/pirates-pitcher-offense/feed/0Movers and Shakers: NL Offseason Recaphttp://raisethejollyroger.com/2015/02/movers-and-shakers-nl-offseason-recap/
http://raisethejollyroger.com/2015/02/movers-and-shakers-nl-offseason-recap/#commentsThu, 12 Feb 2015 04:29:42 +0000http://raisethejollyroger.com/?p=18003The James Shields signing on Monday was probably the final significant move of this MLB offseason, barring a late trade. Shields was the last big free agent remaining and the start of spring training is just over a week away. With that in mind, here’s a look at how things have shifted in the NL – who’s in and who’s out – along with some quick thoughts.

For “In” I included all new acquisitions listed on a team’s projected lineup/rotation/bullpen on RosterResource.com (a great site – formerly MLBDepthCharts). For “Out” I skimmed the transactions page for any departures that I (arbitrarily) deemed remotely notable.

Still the division favorite, and the addition of Heyward is potentially scary. The pitching staff could suffer a bit with the losses of Miller and Neshek, who was great for them in the bullpen, but they always have the depth to replace guys like that.

Not a lot to like here for the Brew Crew. Lind could be a good addition at first but that’s about it, and shipping Gallardo out for prospects isn’t a great signal to send going into this season, even if it made sense long term. Worth noting that K-Rod is still out there as a FA and could re-sigh.

A disastrous 2014 apparently didn’t motivate the Reds to improve, as they shipped off two big pieces of their rotation and did not add much (for the present) in return. With the resurgence of the Cubs, Cincinnati might be the early favorite to occupy the Central’s basement.

The clear “paper champions” of the offseason. The Cubs added an elite SP, another rotation piece, a very good catcher, a useful OF, and some decent depth. Add that to their young talent that impressed somewhat in 2014, plus some more big time prospects approaching the majors, and they could be legit.

Thoughts on the Central: It looks like the Cards at the top and the Pirates right behind again, with the big question being how much ground the Cubs can make up with their huge winter. The Brewers and Reds still have enough left to compete under a best case scenario, but neither of those teams looks to be getting better.

It appears the Phils are finally starting to commit to a much-needed rebuild. About time.

Thoughts on the East: Nats should run away with it easily. The Marlins and Mets have interesting talent but don’t really appear to be complete teams yet. The Phillies are still a mess and the Braves look like a mess now as well.

The champs won’t look too different this year, although the Panda is obviously a big loss. Don’t forget they won it all despite some big injuries (Pagan, Cain), so they could possibly return even stronger.

Serious rebuilding time for the Snakes. They became one of Pittsburgh’s most hated teams in 2014 and Pirate fans probably won’t mind seeing them go through what looks to be a brutal season.

Thoughts on the West: Much like the Central, there are two established contenders and an upstart former afterthought looking to make noise after a huge winter. The difference is that the other two teams in the division look absolutely awful.

—

What do you think…who’s better, who’s worse, who could improve/regress for other reasons beyond offseason moves?

]]>http://raisethejollyroger.com/2015/02/movers-and-shakers-nl-offseason-recap/feed/0Travis Snider traded to Orioleshttp://raisethejollyroger.com/2015/01/travis-snider-traded-to-orioles/
http://raisethejollyroger.com/2015/01/travis-snider-traded-to-orioles/#commentsWed, 28 Jan 2015 04:36:10 +0000http://raisethejollyroger.com/?p=17985The Pirates sent Travis Snider to Baltimore in exchange for pitching prospect Stephen Tarpley and another player to be named later on Tuesday night. Just when it was looking like the Bucs were done making moves for the winter, Neal Huntington struck again…although this one is a bit of a head scratcher so far.

Even though there hadn’t been any rumors leading up to this, it shouldn’t be surprising that Snider was on the trading block. Even after Snider started down the stretch last season when he got hot, Gregory Polanco figured to be the new full-time right fielder. Both are left handed, so a platoon or semi-platoon situation wasn’t really in play. Snider was slated to be the 4th OF, and after he finally showed that he could produce in 2014, that was fine. He was due to make $2.1 million and is under control (arbitration) through 2016.

The puzzling thing about this is the fact that the Pirates, a team looking to contend in the upcoming season, dumped him for prospects (rumor has it the other PTBNL will be a “similar” player). Tarpley is a perfectly interesting guy to acquire – he’s not one of the O’s best prospects (you wouldn’t expect that in exchange for Snider) but the young lefty was a 3rd round pick in 2013 and did fine in his first two years of pro ball. This trade could easily be justified from a pure long term value standpoint, and a few years ago it would have been a no brainer for a rebuilding team. But this is a move that makes the Pirates worse in the short term.

Not a whole lot worse, to be fair. All of the good vibes around Snider mostly come from one half season, and the Pirates may have an equivalent or better replacement for his role ready to go in Andrew Lambo. Maybe it’s finally time for Lambo to get a chance – that’s long overdue, and as a lefty power hitter, he profiles somewhat similar to Snider. Even beyond Lambo, it’s not as if they are starved for extra outfielders. Jose Tabata is still around (even though he’s not on the roster, they can safely stash him in the minors thanks to his bad contract). Corey Hart can probably still handle RF if needed, and if Jung-Ho Kang can play third occasionally, Josh Harrison can slide to the outfield. There’s also the possibility of another move to compensate – finding 4th OF’s is not the hardest thing in the world. So my best guess at the Pirates’ thought process here is that they can replace him easily, save a little money, and add some pitching for the future.

The biggest key to this working out is Gregory Polanco stepping up and producing – there’s no safety net for him now. Snider was something of a lightning rod for controversy during his tenure here. Most didn’t like the trade to bring him in (ironically, Brad Lincoln was re-acquired by the Pirates this offseason). Then people (myself included) wanted him out before last year, then especially wanted him out when Polanco was tearing up the minors. Eventually, I think most came to appreciate Snider as he did provide that late season safety net for Polanco. His best moments as a Pirate weren’t limited to just that, though. All the best to him in Baltimore.

]]>http://raisethejollyroger.com/2015/01/travis-snider-traded-to-orioles/feed/2The Kang Showhttp://raisethejollyroger.com/2015/01/the-kang-show/
http://raisethejollyroger.com/2015/01/the-kang-show/#commentsSun, 18 Jan 2015 07:22:57 +0000http://raisethejollyroger.com/?p=17976Jung-ho Kang (pronounced GAHNG) is officially a Pirate, as Friday’s announcement (plus a few reports earlier in the week) ended a couple weeks of speculation. Once the Pirates won the bidding for the negotiating rights, it wasn’t so much a question of if they would sign him, but for how much and how they would expect him to fit in. We have a better idea of that now: Kang’s contract is for $11M over four years, plus a team option for a fifth year ($5.5M with a $1M buyout). That’s far less than he was reportedly seeking (around 4-5M per year), and in the end this didn’t really turn out to be the enormous financial commitment on the part of the Pirates that some thought it might be: $17M over four years if the option is bought out, $12M of that going to Kang (the rest being the posting fee going to his old Korean club). This could turn out to be an incredible bargain, reasonable value, or wasted money, but if it ends up being wasted money, it is by no means a crippling amount.

The much more interesting thing is the role he will play on the team and what the Pirates can reasonably expect from him. Much was made of Kang’s comments at the Seoul airport, just before he left for the U.S.,when he nodded if asked if he thought he could put up better numbers than Jordy Mercer. As many others have said, this shouldn’t be a big deal – he was basically prompted in to saying that, he obviously isn’t going to aspire to be a benchwarmer, and it certainly didn’t come across as a “throwing down the gauntlet” sort of comment — and it appears that most have realized that, even though some media wanted to run with it for a day or so. Anyway, to start out, Kang is going to be a benchwarmer. Mercer proved to be a very steady shortstop last year and the Pirates should be – and are – glad to have him as their starter there. They are obviously set at second and third as well. Initially, Kang’s role will be strengthening the bench and infield depth – something that has been a priority this offseason (Sean Rodriguez, Corey Hart, etc.) and should help the club in 2015. There are questions about his defense but he is apparently versatile enough to play second and third, in addition to his main position at short. As long as he is somewhere in between “completely terrible” and “no different from his KBO self”, he should be just fine as a power bat off the bench and a fill-in for Mercer, Walker, and Harrison should any of them get hurt, struggle, or just need a day off. Neal Huntington was fairly adamant that he won’t be going to the minors – which I was surprised to hear him state right away, especially if it isn’t stipulated in his contract (which it apparently is not).

What happens beyond that initial “feeling-out” phase (2015) will undoubtedly depend on what Kang shows he can do, which is basically a complete mystery. There isn’t much point to trying to figure out if he’s the planned Neil Walker replacement after this year, or if a move to first for Walker is in play, or something else. Those discussions will certainly happen if Kang proves he can handle the majors, but he has to do that first. And while I trust that the Pirates did a good job with their scouting and research before making such an unprecedented investment, there’s no way to know for sure if Kang will do that. He’s the first KBO position player to make this transition, and we’ve heard plenty about how the ballparks are small and the pitching is bad over there. You would think that, even with a huge difference, arguably the best player there could hold his own in MLB, but there are so many factors in play (in addition to the change in pitching and the ballpark, there’s the matter of adjusting to living in a foreign country, taking on a bench role after being a star player for years, and having the baseball reputation of an entire country largely on your shoulders) … it’s not hard to envision him flaming out. But of course, the other side of the spectrum is the vast potential Kang offers if he can make the adjustment. If he can end up being a ~20 homer guy with OK on-base% and defense, that would be a huge win for the Pirates, regardless of where he ends up playing or who he ends up taking over for. With all the positional flexibility they currently have with basically all of their infielders, they should be able to choose from any number of options depending on who holds up and who doesn’t. Remember, while everyone’s high on Mercer and Harrison right now, that’s pretty much all built on one year, and while we all love Neil Walker, his durability has and will continue to come into question, as will his cost.

Other random notes on Kang:

He’ll train with his old Korean team, the Nexen Heroes, in Arizona from now until the start of Pirates camp in Bradenton next month. Korean teams typically train in AZ/FL at this time of year.

Kang will wear #27 for the Bucs. 16 was his old number but he won’t be taking that from Nick Leyva.

Kang is the first position player to come over from the KBO, but there was one pitcher who did it: Hyun-jin Ryu of the Dodgers. That’s worked out pretty well for them. Ryu is a friend of Kang’s and shared some thoughts on him here, naturally predicting success. Back in the KBO, the last time the two faced each other, Kang homered.

In other Pirate news, it’s the fun time of year where arbitration salaries are negotiated. Most arb-eligible Bucs were able to reach an agreement: Mark Melancon, Josh Harrison, Chris Stewart, Antonio Bastardo, Francisco Cervelli, Jared Hughes, Travis Snider, Sean Rodriguez, and Tony Watson. The amounts for each are listed here – adding them up, they fall reasonably close to the projections. There were three players that did not reach an agreement: Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, and Vance Worley. The exchanged figures are here – the differences are $1M for Walker and less for the other two. In isolation, this isn’t a big deal, but going to an arb “trial” to determine a player’s salary is something the Pirates have generally stayed away from and could create (or increase) tension between the player and the front office – especially in the cases of Walker (who is still looking for an extension that might never come) and Alvarez (being forced to switch positions, at least somewhat against his will).

]]>http://raisethejollyroger.com/2015/01/the-kang-show/feed/0Bastardo in the bullpenhttp://raisethejollyroger.com/2014/12/bastardo-in-the-bullpen/
http://raisethejollyroger.com/2014/12/bastardo-in-the-bullpen/#commentsThu, 11 Dec 2014 05:24:35 +0000http://raisethejollyroger.com/?p=17948After agreeing to bring Francisco Liriano back, the Pirates’ main offseason to-do list had two major items left: bullpen help and right handed first baseman. They didn’t waste much time addressing the bullpen, trading for Antonio Bastardo on Wednesday. Joely Rodriguez will head to the Phillies in exchange.

Bastardo is essentially a replacement / improvement over Justin Wilson, who was traded to the Yankees for Francisco Cervelli. Bastardo’s a lefty, and having watched him with the Phillies from time to time, I assumed he was a LOOGY type (lefty one out guy – the sort of guy that generally only comes in to face one or two key batters). That isn’t actually the case – he’s pitched quite a bit against right handers as well and doesn’t really have an extreme split. Still, looking at his slider, which can be impressive and comes from a sharp angle, he still seems like an ideal guy to face a tough lefty bat late in a game. The fact that he can get right handers out probably made him more attractive to the Pirates (they were also interested in him at the trade deadline), since Clint Hurdle doesn’t seem to be too fond of bringing in relievers for individual matchups one out at a time. Bastardo gives Hurdle a second lefty in addition to Tony Watson, and that’s a good thing since Watson’s left handedness isn’t really used situationally…he’s generally locked in to the setup role regardless of who is coming to bat. Bastardo will probably slot into more of a middle-to-late inning role and can be deployed depending on when big lefty bats are due up.

The Pirates only control Bastardo for 2014, and they’ll pay him pretty well for a middle reliever – he will make more than $2 million (it’ll be his third arb year). So that’s a slight downside when you compare him against the cheap and controllable Wilson, but Bastardo brings more experience and consistency to the table (and you won’t find many Pittsburghers complaining about the Pirates spending a little more). They are fairly similar in that they both walk more than you’d like, but they also strike out a bunch. For the short term, though, Bastardo looks like a worthwhile pickup to shore up the pen. He’s reliably posted FIP’s around 3.00 for the last several years, he’ll strike out well over a batter per inning, and he’s more versatile than the typical lefty reliever.

As for Joely Rodriguez, this move would’ve been frowned upon much more a year ago when his prospect stock was a lot higher. A down season in Altoona this year after being added to the 40-man roster has him sort of forgotten now, and even when he was doing well in the low minors, he wasn’t striking many guys out. He did have a nice fall season in Arizona but he isn’t all that high on the prospect radar anymore and while you never know how he’ll end up, I don’t think many will lose sleep over this trade. It makes sense for the Phillies, though – seems like they have finally realized that it’s time to rebuild.

The best way to describe Rodriguez, I think, is as a version of Josh Harrison before his breakout 2014 season. Rodriguez’s offensive numbers (.225 career hitter, .670 OPS) aren’t going to wow anybody, but they aren’t terrible and his value comes from his versatility – he has played all over the field and can fill in virtually anywhere in a pinch. (Most of his playing time has come at 2B or SS, but he has played every position with the Rays except pitcher and catcher.) He also hits better against lefties (career .746 OPS vs LHP, .611 vs RHP). The Pirates have acquired a number of fringy utilityman types over the past couple of months, but Rodriguez is actually one that I think most people would actively welcome on to a major league bench.

Speaking of the bench…

To make room for Rodriguez on the 40-man roster, the #Pirates have designated first baseman Gaby Sanchez for assignment.

Both halves of the 2014 first base platoon are now gone – Ike Davis was DFA’d last week and then traded to the A’s for some extra international bonus pool money. This was pretty much expected – I figured the Pirates would hand Pedro Alvarez the first base job, and it looks like that’s what they’re doing. And I’m mostly OK with that. But despite Andrew McCutchen‘s wishes, and despite the fact that the Pirates don’t face a whole lot of left handed pitching in the NL Central, they’d be wise to pair Pedro at first with someone who can actually hit lefties. Gaby wasn’t going to be that guy anymore. Though he still managed to muster an OK .746 OPS against LHP in 2014, that isn’t good enough when it’s the one thing you’re on the team to do. He isn’t a defensive wizard, he was horrid against righties (who he inevitably still racks up some PA’s against), and he was going to get a little expensive for such meager production. It really shouldn’t be too difficult for the Pirates to find similar production in such a limited, specialized role in the form of something cheaper, and/or in the form of someone who can also add something else to the team.

I don’t really know if Rodriguez is meant to be Sanchez’s “replacement” – to me he looks like more of a Clint Barmes replacement, or a Harrison replacement now that Harrison is the full time 3B. (If some of the other infield acquisitions didn’t already signal the end of the Barmes era, this almost surely does.) He’s more of a middle infielder and profiles as a guy that will be giving Harrison, Mercer, and especially Neil Walker the occasional day off (particularly for Walker against lefties), plus giving Hurdle a lot of versatility off the bench. I suppose the Pirates could use him as Pedro’s 1B platoon partner, or maybe just not call it a platoon and only play him there, say, half the time against lefties. But there should be room for Rodriguez and another better, more specialized right handed bat on the bench.

In other news…

The Pirates are reportedly “prioritizing”Francisco Liriano above other free agent SP’s. That’s good news to me. As I’ve already said a couple times, they need to – and almost certainly will – spend money on pitching now, and Liriano is probably the best guy they’ll be able to get.

I would like to see the Pirates make another move or two to improve the bench, and I suppose the bullpen as well. But the big ticket items are the starting pitchers. There hasn’t been much activity on the market yet for those – most of the action has been surrounding position players, where the Pirates don’t have a lot of need (besides catcher, which they already sort of addressed). So at least hold your whining until some decent pitchers start going off the market. And nothing is dumber than the “Why aren’t they even in RUMORS with some of these guys?” complaints. A lot of these signings come out of nowhere. And when the Pirates do get involved with rumors for someone and miss out (like this past trade deadline), that just brings more complaints. It’s honestly comical.

Remember Gorkys Hernandez? I don’t blame you if you don’t, but he was the all-defense/no-offense outfield prospect acquired as part of the Nate McLouth trade, then traded away for…Gaby Sanchez. The Pirates signed him back to a minor league deal today (along with two others). It’s almost certainly a meaningless move – just a tad ironic on the same day they dumped Sanchez.

PirateFest will be held December 13-14. It’s free, unless you want autographs (they’re still free for kids). Details here.

It was pretty clear that Davis wasn’t going to stick around. If the plan is to play Pedro Alvarez at first – which it clearly is at this point – there was no point in keeping both Alvarez and Davis, who fill the same role and would both be somewhat expensive in 2015 compared to their mediocre offensive production in 2014. Now, it’s worth noting that you can make a very reasonable argument for keeping Davis over Alvarez, if you like on-base percentage more than large home run totals (which, again, is quite reasonable). That simply wasn’t going to happen, though – Pedro has the flashier upside, he is more entrenched in the organization (as the Pirates “guy”), and even though Davis was statistically passable this year (104 OPS+), I think most would agree that he felt like a disappointment and wasn’t what the Pirates were looking for as a middle-of-the-order hitter.

So I don’t really have an issue with choosing Pedro over Davis, but just taking a glance at the list above, it’s fairly depressing. There’s just a lot of “filler” there – guys that were claimed off waivers for seemingly no reason, Triple-A depth, guys that you’d really hope the Pirates aren’t planning on putting in the majors. Now, obviously the roster is going to look a little depleted with free agents departing, there is plenty of time to shore things up, and every team has to acquire guys like that. Still, you wonder about the depth of the organization a little bit, or at least about some individual decisions. For example, the Pirates left outfielder Mel Rojas unprotected for the Rule 5 draft, while they easily could have dumped a number of guys (Elmore? Guilmet? Roe? Scahill? Florimon? Decker?) on that roster without losing a wink of sleep. Rojas was eligible for the draft last year and wasn’t taken, and he isn’t a can’t miss prospect or anything like that (he projects as a 4th OF at this point), but he had a nice year in the upper minors this season and a team could easily hide him on a major league bench all season to steal him away. (Heck, if the Brewers could do it with a rookie ball pitcher, a team like the Astros can do it with a guy putting up decent AAA numbers.) What’s the point of keeping a guy like Jaff Decker instead? Or why not keep Davis around a little longer and at least try to trade him for something, as most speculated they would? I’m not really sure. This may be (and probably is) a long rant about something that ultimately won’t matter, but it seems strange to me.

Other news, notes, and thoughts from the past few days…

Brad Lincoln is back, on a minor league deal. I guess the Pirates win the Travis Snider trade after all. Lincoln bombed with the Jays and then the Phillies after being traded away, but he was showing more promise as a reliever and those teams seemed to be steering him back to starting. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of him becoming a useful reliever again – can’t hurt to give him a shot.

The Cardinals traded Shelby Miller to Atlanta for Jason Heyward. Sigh. This is the sort of deal that may look fair on the surface, but you just know it’s going to turn out great for the Cards. Heyward is a beast that, while he has disappointed a bit recently, could easily turn into an elite corner OF in an instant. And he’s only under contract for one year, but I’d expect the Cards to extend him if he does well with them. Meanwhile, while Miller is a promising young arm, he was one of the Pirates’ favorite pitchers to hit against.

Giancarlo Stanton‘s new contract is just…whoa. After simply getting over the absurdity of the number (and it’s not totally absurd in the current MLB environment…just absurd when thinking about day to day money for us “normal” people), it’s natural to think about how, say, Andrew McCutchen‘s contract compares. It doesn’t – Cutch’s deal is an absolute steal for the Pirates at this point. The conversation will certainly steer to how the Pirates are getting away with being cheap and how much money Cutch will eventually make when he hits FA in 2018, but take a moment to realize how huge it was for the Pirates to get that current contract done early. Without an extension, Cutch would be about to enter his final season before FA, and if you though the Martin thing was a mess this year…woof.

After all the drama that unfolded last offseason, and a pretty rough 2014 season in Philly, A.J. Burnett is back with the Pirates. Talk about some surprising Friday afternoon news – this came completely out of nowhere.

Burnett’s deal is for one year and $8.5 million. He had a $12.75 million player option for 2015 with the Phillies and turned that down. Both AJ and his agent made it very clear that Pittsburgh was the only place he wanted to play – he did not negotiate with any other teams. He’s established (for real this time) that this is going to be his final season in baseball- so this sets up to be a farewell tour of sorts – but also one last shot at a ring. Think about that for a minute – a guy turning down a hefty amount of money to come to Pittsburgh for a shot at a winner.

Sure, it sounds kind of cheesy, but when you consider that he left $4.25 million on the table – and went further away from his family (his main stated reason for choosing Philly a year ago) – to come to the Pirates…AJ is sincere here. He did an interview with 93.7 The Fan shortly after the announcement and I’d recommend giving it a listen . That link also has an interview with Clint Hurdle as well, and Clint’s as convincing as ever. Listening to those, you just sort of get a sense that this is going to work out. There are no concerns here from an emotional standpoint, and in fact, bringing Burnett back to the clubhouse could infuse some important leadership (especially if/when Russell Martin departs). We already saw what looked like a tangible impact the first time around, and you can bet that the team will be happy to have him back.

Of course, there’s also the much more important matter of AJ’s actual pitching ability. It wasn’t a good season for him in Philly: he led the league in losses, earned runs allowed, and walks. Hardly an ideal trifecta. A lot of that can be explained away somewhat, though: he was one of only three NL pitchers to make all 34 starts and he pitched for a terrible Philly team with little run support, bad defense, and a hitter-friendly ballpark. That won’t help the counting stats.

Still, those factors don’t explain an increase in walk rate, a decrease in strikeout rate, and a decrease in ground ball rate – the three things that were most crucial to his success as a Pirate. One thing that may partially explain it – besides some simple regression from two really good seasons as a Pirate – is the hernia that he pitched through all year. That was taken care of with surgery after the season and hopefully shouldn’t be an issue going forward.

And while those three numbers trended in the wrong direction this year, they still weren’t bad – his xFIP was a very respectable 3.95 (4.14 FIP), so the 4.59 ERA shouldn’t have been quite so high. If he can just replicate that again over roughly 200 innings, that would be well worth an investment of $8.5 million and would be a welcome boost to a rotation that needed (and still needs) some help. Then you can throw in the fact that Ray Searage is a magician, plus Burnett’s more comfortable in Pittsburgh, and it just generally seems more likely that he’d pitch better while playing for a contending team rather than a miserable Phillies squad.

Really, I would say the Pirates are just looking for innings here, and despite his age, AJ is about as reliable as it gets in terms of being able to chew them up. He isn’t (at least I really hope he isn’t) being brought in to be an ace (or co-ace with Gerrit Cole). He is beyond that point of his career, but he is still a useful major league pitcher. $8.5 million is terrific value for a guy that can pitch about 200 slightly above average innings. It shouldn’t preclude the Pirates from continuing to spend on pitching. The rotation now currently looks something like this: Cole, Burnett, Worley, Locke, ???? (with Morton and Taillon unavailable early in the year). If they can get Liriano back, that would look a lot better. Volquez instead of Liriano – well, it might be acceptable but I’d like to see more quality at the top than that. Now I’m hoping for one quality, expensive arm – maybe something that would be widely considered a #2 guy – and then a cheap reclamation project to throw in as depth.

There’s of course plenty of irony with Burnett coming back given what happened a year ago. He turned down (reportedly) $12 million from the Pirates to take $15 million in Philly. The Pirates were crushed for not offering him more and going with the cheaper Edinson Volquez instead. Now he’s turning down $12.75 million in Philly to take $8.5 million in Pittsburgh, and the Pirates are welcoming him back despite Volquez having a better season (on the surface). It remains to be seen what will happen with Volquez now, but I am satisfied with going after Burnett instead – as we discussed before the Wild Card game, there were a lot of smoke and mirrors in Eddie’s numbers this season and while what he did was great, I wouldn’t be thrilled with giving him big $ for multiple years. Burnett is more of a known quantity and the one year deal carries minimal risk. The Pirates should still be pursuing more pitching, but this surprising move should help the cause.

]]>http://raisethejollyroger.com/2014/11/hes-back/feed/9No repeat for Cutchhttp://raisethejollyroger.com/2014/11/no-repeat-for-cutch/
http://raisethejollyroger.com/2014/11/no-repeat-for-cutch/#commentsFri, 14 Nov 2014 05:39:44 +0000http://raisethejollyroger.com/?p=17920I didn’t expect Andrew McCutchen to win the NL MVP — I think it’s pretty darn tough to make a good argument for him over Clayton Kershaw, who won it along with the Cy Young award. Kershaw became the first pitcher to win the NL MVP since Bob Gibson, so that gives you an idea of how rare it is – and how awesome Kershaw was. I don’t buy the logic that a pitcher can’t be MVP because they only play one out of every five days. They obviously have a much larger impact in the games they do play in, and a pitcher that logs a lot of innings ends up having just as much of an impact in the long run. Kershaw faced more batters this season than McCutchen had plate appearances. If anything, I think pitchers should probably be considered more often. They have the Cy Young award to themselves, of course, but that alone should not change MVP voting logic the way things are currently set up.

Anyway, Kershaw was tremendous and deserved to win. But I was pretty surprised to see McCutchen come in third, not second – Giancarlo Stanton took second. Stanton’s a ridiculously awesome power hitter, of course, and he was neck and neck with Cutch when you look at overall offense. Cutch had the edge in OPS, AVG, OBP, and wRC+, while Stanton had the edge in SLG, HR’s, and RBI’s. The reality of it is that OPS and wRC+ should win out over HR and RBI totals, but the BBWAA apparently isn’t at that point yet. Stanton was close enough to Cutch that this is hardly a total outrage or anything, but I’d say McCutchen was the best hitter in the league.

Defense, baserunning, and mysterious other factors also play into this, though. Cutch was admittedly well below average defensively, but Stanton isn’t a defensive standout and certainly doesn’t add nearly as much value as McCutchen on the bases. And while I personally don’t think it should be a factor, many voters tend to like a player that made the playoffs, which Cutch obviously did and Stanton did not. Still, the “narrative” that weighed so heavily in McCutchen’s favor this year must not have helped him out this time around, now that everyone knew about him and the Pirates weren’t a storybook team anymore – plus he had a supporting cast that attracted some star power in Josh Harrison and Russell Martin. Stanton led a Miami team to a surprisingly not awful season, and he was basically THE guy there. So you can sort of see why some would have been swayed in that direction.

You can examine the full voting results here. The one standout vote is from David Cameron of Fangraphs, who placed Cutch sixth, penalizing him mainly for defense and his numbers with men on base. I am a big fan of Cameron’s and while I obviously disagree with the emphasis he places on those areas, I can at least respect the logic and explanation. In the end, something like this is not worth getting upset about (especially when Cutch has already won one!), it just makes for an interesting debate. Even for the stat nerds, it isn’t always as simple as just picking the guy with the best WAR (which is Cutch, among position players).

It was good to see Josh Harrison make his way onto the results page, finishing 9th with a number of votes in the 6-10 range and one 4th place vote. Russell Martin finished 13th. The Pirates were well represented, as they should have been. It’s pretty amazing to look back at Josh freaking Harrison, the 25th man going into the season, and Russ Martin, a much-maligned FA signing two years ago, and see them getting MVP votes. But McCutchen finishing near the top of this list yet again is just something to marvel at – he’s now ended up as the third, first, and second best position player in the voting the past three years. He was also a notch above Mike Trout, the AL MVP, and was better than his own 2013 season, when he of course won NL MVP. As I’ve said numerous times, I don’t think a segment Pirate fans truly appreciate how spectacular he has been over this three year stretch of MVP-finalist seasons.

The Pirates may have already found their Russell Martin replacement, even though Russ isn’t officially gone yet. On Wednesday night they acquired catcher Francisco Cervelli from the Yankees, and sent Justin Wilson to New York in exchange.

So this means Russ is gone for sure?

Not officially, but pretty much, yeah. Jon Heyman says otherwise, but I don’t think anyone really believes that. There’s little doubt that the Pirates made this move because they know they won’t be able to win the Martin sweepstakes. Let’s be real – we basically knew this already. I will reserve judgement on how upset we should be about that until we find out what he signs for (and/or what the Pirates offered), but if the terms are anything like the numbers that were tossed around recently (5 years, $75 million-plus), that simply wasn’t going to happen in Pittsburgh.

If you are the eternal optimist, Cervelli is cheap and could profile as a backup or trade bait if the Pirates somehow are still able to land Martin, but it looks like their intentions are clear here. Martin is gone unless he has a massive change of heart and opts to come back for a hefty discount. It’s time to move on, and spend a lot of that money that was saved up for Russ on some much-needed quality starting pitching.

OK.. [Grumble.] Tell me about this Cervelli guy.

The thing that made the Martin situation extremely frustrating was the lack of other options available to the Pirates, either internally or externally. Cervelli looks like a pretty decent, creative solution – probably about as good as they were going to get. The rest of the free agent market is terrible and you aren’t going to find teams looking to trade good everyday catchers…

So he’s not a good everyday catcher, then.

“Every day” is the key part of that statement. The 28 year old has been in the majors for 7 years but has appeared in just 250 games. Injuries have been a big problem, and he was also suspended 50 games after the Biogenesis mess last year. But – from what he has done in that somewhat limited big league time – he looks like a useful catcher. Not Russ Martin useful, but not bad – and a lot better than anything else the Pirates were going to find.

Can he hit?

His offensive numbers are decent: .278/.348/.381 career line, and over the last two years (both in injury/suspension shortened seasons) he posted OBP’s of .377 and .370. He’s not going to be a middle of the order hitter but he doesn’t look like someone that will totally weigh down the bottom of the lineup. I’ll gladly take a .350-ish OBP from a catcher – obviously it’s going to be a downgrade from Martin’s sensational 2014 season at the plate, but that was a huge outlier for him…in 2013, he posted a .327 OBP.

Martin also gets a lot of praise for game calling and staff-handling, and if you take Brandon McCarthy‘s word for it, Cervelli has that covered. McCarthy is well known as one of the game’s better minds and had a lot of success after coming over to the Yankees in a mid season trade – and he’s now a free agent and a potential Pirate target. Check out this tweet from him and the one above it, posted shortly after news of the trade broke.

Is he the starter?

Barring any other acquisitions, I think he should be. Chris Stewart will likely stick around as a backup, to help keep the ex-Yankee theme and the pitch-framing theme going. (I’m fine with Stewart as a backup, by the way, especially if he finds a way to get on base close to as much as he did this year, though that’s admittedly unlikely.) There won’t be as much as a playing time split — Stewart will play more, which, again, is fine with me. Durability is a huge concern with Cervelli – probably the only thing you can really hold against him at this point. Any more injuries, and that’s where Tony Sanchez will likely come in. Elias Diaz is probably at least a year away.

The financial situation:

Cervelli is eligible for his first year of arbitration, which means the Pirates control him for three years at a very reasonable price. So, yeah, they’re saving a ton of money at catcher here. It’s a downgrade, but it might not be quite as big of one as we feared…and IF that saved money is wisely invested in quality pitching, I will be satisfied with this strategy.

Justin Wilson to New York:

Most Pirate fans aren’t going to be upset to see Wilson go after he had a rough season in 2014. Personally I’m not thrilled about selling very low on a lefty with tremendous stuff, but a few factors outweigh that enough to make me OK with it. First, Wilson’s a reliever. When you have a chance to trade a reliever for something useful, you do it. Their marginal value is small and they are less predictable than any other position. I also like Cervelli enough that I don’t mind trading away something moderately notable for him – if he turns out to be a serviceable everyday catcher, which I think is reasonable possible, that’s pretty valuable.

So while I don’t mind the decision to move him, I would not be surprised to see him have more seasons like his much better 2013, and possibly go beyond that and become a dominant power reliever in the late innings for the Yanks.

TL; DR:

Yes, this basically means Russ is as good as gone. I like Cervelli, though he’s still relatively unproven and has not shown to be durable at all. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Wilson bounce back and do well for the Yankees, but I have no problem with trading him. A Cervelli/Stewart combo won’t replace Russ, but it should be adequate, especially defensively. This also frees up a lot of money for much needed pitching without totally sabotaging the 2014 catching situation. If the Pirates spend their “Martin money” on pitching, I am on board with this.