This graph shows the historical record over the period 1994-2016, which is the period in which we’ve had a top eight finals system and each team has played 22 home-and-away games. It shows that, for example, only 10% of teams that have lost their first three games have gone on to make the finals in this period. Teams that win one out of their first three make the finals 34.6% of the time.

The graph above includes the 2013 Bombers, who won 14 games but didn’t play finals due to disqualification. It also includes the 2013 Blues, who took the Bombers’ spot in the finals. Some people have asked for a version without the 13 Bombers and Blues, so here it is: