ERS conducts research on USDA's child nutrition programs, including the National School Lunch Program, School Breakfast Program, Child and Adult Care Food Program, Summer Food Service Program, and After-School Snacks and Suppers.

The Food Dollar Series measures annual expenditures by U.S. consumers on domestically produced food and is composed of three primary series. Nominal (current year) and real data are now available from 1993 to 2016.

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In FY 2017, expenditures on USDA’s 15 domestic food and nutrition programs totaled $98.6 billion, 4 percent less than in the previous fiscal year and almost 10 percent less than the historical high of $109.2 billion set in FY 2013.

This report discusses February 2018 USDA forecasts for U.S. agricultural trade in FY2018. Exports are forecast at $139.5 billion in FY2018 and imports are expected to reach $118.5 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $21.0 billion.

The rural population is shrinking due to outmigration of young adults, fewer births, increased mortality among working-age adults, and an aging population. Rural job growth since 2011 has been well below the urban growth rate.

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March 15, 2018 3:00 PM

The Food Assistance Landscape: FY 2017 Report

This report uses preliminary data from USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service to examine trends in U.S. food and nutrition assistance programs through fiscal 2017. It also summarizes two recent ERS reports: one on trends in the prevalence and se...

March 14, 2018 3:00 PM

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: March 2018

The food dollar data series is composed of three primary series—the marketing bill series, the industry group series, and the primary factor series—that shed light on different aspects of the food supply chain. Nominal (current year) and re...

U.S. manufacturing employment has been declining since the 1950s. A better understanding of the factors affecting the survival of rural manufacturing plants may help develop strategies to retain these jobs.

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has undergone economic, social, and demographic transformations over the past 10 to 15 years. Among the poorest regions in the world, it faces major political and economic challenges and low food security.

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This report examines events and policy changes in the livestock sectors of the European Union during the 1990s and their impacts on trade in feedstuffs. Lower grain prices and a declining euro together with several animal disease epidemics resulted in significant increases in the feeding of grains and oilseed meals and a reduction in the feeding of nongrain feed ingredients.

A decline in China's corn exports was expected to be a main effect of that country's accession to the World Trade Organization in December 2001. Instead, China's corn exports continued at a near-record pace during 2002. China has canceled direct export subsidies, but other policies have replaced them, although details of these new measures are not clear. This year's rising international prices have given an added boost to China's corn export program and delayed an expected increase in China's corn imports. In the long run, government policies that encourage exports may prove too costly to continue, and restructuring of China's corn and livestock sectors may reduce the flow of exports.

Although the growing U.S.-Mexico corn trade has changed significantly since the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994, it retains many of its pre-trade-liberalization characteristics. The majority of U.S. corn exports to Mexico still consists of yellow corn, which is primarily used as an ingredient in animal feed. From 1998 to 2002, the United States also exported to Mexico substantial quantities of white corn, which is used to make tortillas, but these exports have since diminished, possibly due to Mexican Government support for domestically produced white corn. The number of agricultural producers in Mexico declined substantially during the 1990s, but the Mexican corn sector still features a large number of small-scale producers, whose efforts are also supplemented by government payments. Broader access to U.S. yellow corn is fostering the expansion of hog and poultry production in Mexico, while Mexico's large flour companies are increasing their role in tortilla production, not only in Mexico but also in the United States.

Many analysts see signs that China's corn market is reaching the turning point in a decade-long cycle. China curtailed corn exports in calendar year 2004 and may begin to import corn during marketing year 2004/05. Reduced Chinese exports are also driving U.S. prices higher. Higher prices and increased shipping rates have kept U.S. corn out of the China market, but growing demand and limited production capacity will eventually make China a net importer of corn. China's reduction in exports will expand opportunities for U.S. exports.

Structural change has been occurring throughout the feed grains sector and has affected commodity markets and price forecasting relationships. Structural changes that have affected feed grains stem from government policy such as the 1996 Farm Act, international trade agreements such as NAFTA, and changing consumer preferences. A statistical test of structural change is provided along with price forecasting models for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. The models provide a framework to forecast season-average, farm-level prices and gauge the consistency of supply, demand, and price forecasts.

The 2002 Farm Act provides for counter-cyclical payments when prices are below specified levels. Producers and policy analysts have a need to forecast counter-cyclical payments to plan for these program benefits/outlays. A futures price forecasting model provides forecasts of the counter-cyclical payment rate for corn in conjunction with forecasts for the season-average price received.

The U.S. feed grain sector, largest of the major U.S. field crops, faces unprecedented demand conditions. The size and speed of the expanding use of corn by the ethanol industry is raising widespread issues throughout U.S. agriculture. Debate is ongoing over the use of grain for fuel instead of for food or feed and the adequacy of future grain supplies. Increased productivity (yield) and additional area from land planted to competing crops, land enrolled in conservation programs, or idled land is expected to provide an increased supply of feed grains. The outlook is for higher feed grain prices, in part, as a result of renewable energy policies and high energy prices, with feed grain prices rising above farm program support levels. During the ongoing farm policy debate, the U.S. feed grain sector faces uncertainty about the future level and type of government support.

A large expansion in ethanol production is underway in the United States. Cellulosic sources of feedstocks for ethanol production hold some promise for the future, but the primary feedstock in the United States currently is corn. Market adjustments to this increased demand extend well beyond the corn sector to supply and demand for other crops, such as soybeans and cotton, as well as to U.S. livestock industries. USDA's long-term projections, augmented by farmers' planting intentions for 2007, are used to illustrate anticipated changes in the agricultural sector.

The byproducts of making ethanol, sweeteners, syrups, and oils used to be considered less valuable than the primary products. But the increased livestock-feed market for such byproducts in the past few years has switched that perception to one of the ethanol industry making grain-based "co-products" that have market value separate from the primary products. Co-products such as dried distiller's grains, corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, corn oil, solubles, and brewer's grains have become economically viable components, along with traditional ingredients (such as corn, soybean meal, and urea), in feed rations.

The past 5 years have seen large increases in trading of corn, soybean, and wheat futures contracts by nontraditional traders, a trend that coincided with historic price increases for these commodities. These events have raised questions about whether changes in the composition of traders participating have contributed to movements in commodity prices beyond the effects of market fundamentals. Evidence suggests the link between futures and cash prices for some commodity markets may have weakened (poor convergence), making it more difficult for traditional traders to use futures markets to manage risk. This report discusses the role and objective of new futures traders compared with those of traditional futures traders and seeks to determine if the composition of traders in futures markets has contributed to convergence problems. Market activity is analyzed by focusing on positions of both traditional and new market traders, price levels, price volatility, and volume and open interest trends. Convergence of futures and cash prices is examined, along with implications and prospects for risk management by market participants. The report also discusses the implications for market performance and the regulatory response of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

China's corn imports are minimal, even though it is using a growing proportion of its corn to produce starch, ethanol, and other industrial products. The corn-processing industry's growth was encouraged by Chinese government policy, but the industry now has excess capacity. Many of the corn-based industrial products are exported. China's price support for corn during 2008/09 increased raw material costs for the industry and slowed its growth.

Growth in corn dry-mill ethanol production has surged in the past several years, simultaneously creating a coproduct-distillers' grains (DDGS). Many in the U.S. feed industry were concerned about the size of this new feed source and whether it could be used entirely by the feed industry, but they also worried about the price discovery process for the product. The authors of this report provide a transparent methodology to estimate U.S. supply and consumption of DDGS. Potential domestic and export use of U.S. DDGS exceeds current production and is likely to exceed future production as ethanol production continues to grow. The authors identify the DDGS price discovery process along with the price relationships of distillers' grains, corn, and soybean meal.

Corn-based dry-mill ethanol production and its coproducts - notably distillers' dried grains with soluble (DDGS) - have surged in recent years. The report estimates the potential substitution of DDGS for corn and soybean meal in livestock feeding and the impact of substitution upon the U.S. feed complex.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service's Crop Production 2011 Summary and January Grain Stocks reports revealed larger than expected corn supplies this month. Feed grain production for 2011/12 is estimated at 323.5 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month as higher estimated corn production more than offset lower sorghum output. Feed grain ending stocks are forecast down 0.3 million tons to 23.8 million tons. Corn production is estimated 48 million bushels higher, with harvested acreage advanced 45,000 acres and the national average yield raised 0.5 bushels per acre. Projected 2011/12 corn ending stocks are lowered 2 million bushels, as a 50-million-bushel increase in exports more than offsets the larger supply. Ending stocks at 6.7 percent of projected usage will be the tightest since 1995/96. The projected season average prices are lowered for corn, sorghum, and barley. Global coarse grain production is up slightly as a sharp reduction in prospects for Argentina is offset by increases for Ukraine and other countries. Reduced Argentine exports and increased imports by China support increased U.S. corn exports. Foreign 2011/12 coarse grain ending stocks are forecast higher this month, up 3 percent from a year.

U.S. 2011/12 corn exports are increased 50 million bushels this month to 1.7 billion as lower production prospects in Argentina reduce competition in global markets. U.S. corn supplies are projected up slightly due to increased imports, but the larger increase in exports leaves ending stocks down. Global corn trade is up, supported by increased imports by the EU. World coarse grain production is forecast lower mostly due to a 4.0- million-ton reduction in projected corn production in Argentina. With world coarse grain use projected nearly unchanged, global ending stocks decline.

World 2011/12 coarse grain production and use are projected higher this month, but the increase in consumption is larger, trimming prospects for ending stocks. Brazil's corn production and exports are increased based on higher area for second-crop corn. Forecast EU corn feed use is increased, offsetting a reduction in expected wheat feeding. U.S. 2011/12 supply-and-use forecasts for feed grains are unchanged this month except for a small increase in oats imports and a corresponding increase in oats ending stocks. Projected ranges for 2011/12 farm prices for all feed grains are adjusted, but the midpoints of the ranges for corn and sorghum are unchanged. The midpoint of the projected price range for barley is lowered 5 cents per bushel and the range for oats is raised 5 cents per bushel.

The U.S. feed grain balance sheet is unchanged from last month. The quarterly Stocks Report confirmed continued tight feed grain supplies as of March 1. The Prospective Plantings report pegged 2012 intended plantings of corn at 95.9 million acres, an increase of 3.9 million acres from 2011.

As of May 6, 71 percent of the U.S. corn crop had been planted, compared with an average of 47 percent in 2007-11 and 32 percent in 2011/12. As of the same date, 32 percent of the expected crop had emerged, compared with an average of 13 percent in 2007-11 and 6 percent last year. Early planting boosts the projected yield for 2012/13 to 166.0 bushels per acre, compared with last year's weather-reduced yield of 147.2. Rapid planting and emergence is also likely to affect supplies during the last quarter of the 2011/12 marketing year, resulting in reduced prospects for the June-August quarter feed and residual disappearance.

The 2012/13 U.S. corn balance sheet is unchanged this month. Corn ethanol use for 2011/12 is projected up 50 million bushels this month to 5,050 million as recent ethanol production data have been stronger than expected. While slowing from its peak in December 2011, ethanol production and use has been partly sustained by ethanol exports, as declining gasoline use and limits to blending ethanol have curbed domestic use.

An early corn harvest-before the August 31 end of the previous marketing year-creates an overlap of supply-and-use data between the old and new marketing years that can alter the patterns of corn use and ending stocks, with implications for official USDA projections and estimates.