10 Tech Predictions For 2013: Apple TVs, Win 8 Flop And More

Here's the thing about predictions: They're always fun to make (and to read) and no one ever remembers a year later what they were, so there's basically no reason not to whip out the crystal ball and start forecasting.

And so, over the transom this morning comes a list of 10 predictions for 2013 from Berenberg Capital Markets technology hardware analyst Adnaan Ahmad. His report goes on at length about each prediction; here's a short version:

"Scale is important, given the R&D needed to invest in next-generation technologies, integration and processes," Ahmad writes. "However, the bigger issue is that Apple and Samsung are also important captive vendors. Apple has its A series chips, which it deploys on the iPad and iPhone. We think that this could also shift to its Mac line-up in the next 24 months."

He adds that the patent battles between Samsung and Apple "are leading to a rethink in the foundry relationship between the two vendors." He thinks Apple has given the nod to Taiwan Semiconductor to start building out of capacity to take over production of Apple's processors. That leaves Samsung "with a gaping hole in capacity to fill, given that Apple ships 150-200 million iPhones and 60-80 million iPads annually and that the Samsung chips which go into its own products only account for 35% of capacity currently."

Ergo, he sees Samsung both expanding its role as a contract chip maker and also moving more aggressively into selling components beyond memory chips to device makers.

Prediction #2: Intel licenses ARM’s Cortex technology.

The analyst sees this as good news for ARM, but not so good for Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom, ST-Ericsson and Nvidia.

"Intel has made a huge bet to ramp up capital spend and R&D in order to introduce tri-gate technology on 2x and 1x process nodes in the next two years, in order to 'leap' ahead of the ARM ecosystem and join the tablet and smartphone/post-PC world party on equal (if not better) power consumption/efficiency terms," he writes. But the analyst notes that Intel is not seeing volume sales of its mobile phone processors, despite announcing adoption of the chip from a variety of handset makers.

His view is that Intel is losing the architecture battle to ARM - and that Intel now has three choices. It can stay on the current path, and try to catch up with ARM. It can license the ARM platform and compete with fabless players like Qualcomm, Nvidia and Broadcom. Or it can become a foundry.

"The issue with all three of these strategies is that the margin structure of a monopoly in the PC world will be no longer," he writes. "Margins are likely to fall by at least 1,500-2,000bp as it shifts to any of these models. The other concern is if Intel were to switch to ARM’s technology, would its manufacturing advantage erode, given that its whole process and tools are based on x86 technologies?"

Prediction #3: Samsung goes captive in modems.

In Ahmad's view, that would be good for Samsung (remember, they have capacity to fill assuming they lose Apple's processor business) but not so good for the likes of Qualcomm, Broadcom, ST-Ericsson, Via and Intel.

Prediction #4: Apple launches a MacBook Air with iOS functionality.

This would good for ARM, he says, but not so good for Intel or AMD; such a move would likely be accompanied by a shift away from Intel processors in Macs to ARM processors.

"Given that 85-90% of Apple’s revenues are based on the iOS operating system (iPhone, iPad and iPod), it has to make business sense for the company at some point to shift its iOS to its MacBook range," he writes. "We think it is highly likely that Apple will start this shift in 2013 with an iOS version of the MacBook Air. That is not to say that it will not continue to support an OSX version, but we feel that Apple – a company that prides itself on simplicity – will in the mid-term want to consolidate onto a single platform: i.e. Apple will aim to merge both operating system environments over time. Recent management changes at Apple – i.e. iOS and OSX are now under one executive and there is now a team focused on semiconductors – point to this potential."

He sees this as positive for the telcos, less so for Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia-Siemens, ZTE and Alcatel- Lucent.

"We predict that 2013 will bring further exits and/or consolidation in the industry," he writes. "We have always thought that the Chinese should acquire Nokia Siemens Networks or Alcatel-Lucent assets for their installed base, customer relationships and most importantly services/maintenance expertise. The issues here are a) political/security concerns on such deals, and b) whether or not Asian vendors have learnt from the BenQ-Siemens debacle – i.e. if Asian vendors acquire these assets, they would want cash-in from the acquired parties and government-backed guarantees that they can reduce headcount drastically."

That would be good for Huawei, not so good for Cisco, Hewlett-Packard and Juniper.

"IBM has been working with Huawei since its inception, on management consultancy and more recently branding and marketing projects. We think the next step between the two will be the start of the downfall of Cisco’s and Juniper’s margin structure."

"With most handset vendors globally either losing money or only slightly breaking even, the future is not bright. Apple and Samsung account for ~50% of smartphone volumes and over 100% of industry profits," he writes. " We expect the weak to become weaker."

"We think that it is inevitable that Apple launches a tailored, low-cost iPhone in 2013 to address the burgeoning mass market opportunity. We note that there are over 150 million subscribers in Europe on pre-paid contracts whom Apple is not really addressing today," he writes. "The issue that Apple faces is one of growth. Given that the high-end is a maximum 20-25% of the market and that Apple’s global smartphone share is in the 15-20% range, it can only grow by another 5% in this market category unless it prices its existing product cheaper (read lower margins) or develops a completely new tailored solution."

Prediction #9: Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 stutter.

That would clearly be bad for Microsoft, Nokia, HTC and PC makers, but good for Apple and Google.

Not much explanation required here: the early signs are not that positive for either Windows 8 or Windows Phone 8. Writes Ahmad: "We think the recent departure of Steven Sinofsky (Microsoft’s software guru) has to be related with early disappointment at the acceptance of this platform."

Prediction #10: Apple launches smart TVs in the 2013 second half.

That would be good for Apple and ARM, not so good for Sony, Sharp, LG, Panasonic, Vizio and other TV makers.

Ahmad thinks the key question is how Apple will differentiate from other TV makers. "It can obviously implement some of its differentiated design characteristics to the TV, but the latest Samsung, LG and even Sony TVs are very appealing," he writes. "So differentiation could come through a combination of hardware, software and services – i.e. the existing iOS subscriber base is obviously the targeted initial market for such a product, but to gain lots of traction, a subscription-based services model with differentiated or unique to user/adjusted to user/à la carte content is the way to go."

On that score he sees several factors in Apple favor: Disney CEO Robert Iger is on the Apple board, "and potentially understands how Apple can gain access to favorable content deals," he writes. And he adds that "cable and media companies are starting to feel some pressure from services like Netflix and other digital distribution channels."

After a long career at Barron's, I joined Forbes as San Francisco bureau chief in December 2010. I've been writing about technology and investing for more than 25 years. With the Tech Trade, I've picked up where I left off when I was writing the Tech Trader Daily blog at Bar...