American public perceptions about Iraq

Much has changed in the year or more since the US began its
military action in Iraq. But one thing has changed very little: the
beliefs in the American public that just before the war, Saddam
Hussein's Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda and
had weapons of mass destruction. These beliefs have been evidenced
in numerous polls conducted by other organizations, as well as by
PIPA/Knowledge Networks.

College Park, MD: According to a new PIPA/Knowledge Networks
poll, a majority of Americans (57%) continue to believe that before
the war Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda,
including 20% who believe that Iraq was directly involved in the
September 11 attacks. Forty-five percent believe that evidence that
Iraq was supporting al Qaeda has been found. Sixty percent believe
that just before the war Iraq either had weapons of mass
destruction (38%) or a major program for developing them (22%).

Despite statements by Richard Clarke, David Kay, Hans Blix and
others, few Americans perceive most experts as saying the contrary.
Only 15% said they are hearing experts mostly agree Iraq was not
providing substantial support to al Qaeda, while 82% either said
that experts mostly agree Iraq was providing substantial support
(47%) or experts are evenly divided on the question (35%). Only 34%
said they thought most experts believe Iraq did not have WMD, while
65% said most experts say Iraq did have them (30%) or that experts
are divided on the question (35%).

Not surprisingly, perceptions of what experts are saying are
highly correlated with beliefs about prewar Iraq, which in turn are
highly correlated with support for the decision to go to war.

Perhaps most relevant politically, perceptions of what the
experts are saying are also highly correlated with intentions to
vote for the President in the upcoming election. Among those who
perceived experts as saying that Iraq had WMD, 72% said they would
vote for Bush and 23% said they would vote for Kerry, while among
those who perceived experts as saying that Iraq did not have WMD,
23% said they would vote for Bush and 74% for Kerry.

Among those who perceived experts as saying that Iraq had
supported al Qaeda, 62% said they would vote for Bush and 36% said
they would vote for Kerry. Among those who perceived experts as
saying that Iraq was not supporting al Qaeda, just 13% said they
would vote for Bush and 85% for Kerry.

Steven Kull, director of PIPA, comments: "These correlations do
not establish what is causal. However, multivariate regression
analyses suggest that changes in perceptions of what experts are
saying could have some impact on the public s beliefs, attitudes
about the war, and even voting in the presidential election."

Beliefs about prewar Iraq appear to be also sustained by
perceptions of claims by the Bush administration. Fifty-six percent
said it was their impression that the Bush administration is
claiming the US has found clear evidence that Saddam Hussein was
working closely with al Qaeda, and 38% perceived the administration
saying the US has found clear evidence that just before the war,
Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.

Interestingly, varying perceptions of US troop fatalities does
not appear to have much impact. Asked to estimate the number of US
troop fatalities in Iraq, the median estimate was fairly accurate
at 500. However, estimates varied widely, providing the opportunity
to assess attitudes among those with high estimates as compared to
those with low estimates. In fact, there were no significant
differences between these groups when it came to support for the
war or intention to vote for the President.

On the other hand, a factor that did appear to be strikingly
influential was perceptions of world public opinion on the war with
Iraq. Despite polling showing that the majority of world public
opinion is opposed to the US war with Iraq, only 41% were aware
that this is the case. A 59% majority was unaware of this, with 21%
saying that a majority of world public opinion favored the US
having gone to war, and 38% saying views are evenly balanced.

Among those who knew that world public opinion opposed the US
going to war with Iraq, only 25% thought that going to war was the
right decision. Among the group that thought world public opinion
was about evenly balanced, 70% said going to war was the right
decision, and among those who perceived world public opinion as
favoring the war, 88% said going to war the right decision.

Steven Kull comments, Americans have always been quite concerned
about the international legitimacy of using military force, as
during the run-up to the war when they very much wanted UN
approval. It may be that when Americans are aware that world public
opinion is critical this weakens their perception of the
international legitimacy of the decision to go to war, brings back
memories of the Vietnam experience and softens support for the
decision to go to war.

Perceptions of world public opinion are also related to voting
intentions. Among those who are aware that world public opinion is
critical of the war, only 22% said they intended to vote for
President Bush s reelection (Kerry: 75%). Among those who thought
world public opinion was about evenly balanced, Bush received
support from a modest majority--53%, with 40% preferring Kerry. In
the group that perceived world public opinion as favoring the war,
71% said they intended to vote for the president and only 25% said
they would vote for Kerry.

Steven Kull comments, "Here too these correlations do not
establish what is causal. However multivariate regression analyses
suggest that changes in perceptions of world public opinion could
have some impact on voting behavior in the presidential
election.

The poll was conducted with a nationwide sample of 1,311
respondents from March 16- 22. The margin of error was plus or
minus 2.8%-4.5%, depending on whether the question was administered
to all or part of the sample. A full report and the questionnaire
can be found at www.pipa.org. The poll was fielded by Knowledge
Networks using its nationwide panel, which is randomly selected
from the entire adult population and subsequently provided internet
access. For more information about this methodology, go to
www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp.

In Unreliable Sources, authors Martin Lee and Norman Solomon
noted that "when a research team from the communications department
of the University of Massachusetts surveyed public opinion and
correlated it with knowledge of basic facts about US policy in the
region, they drew some sobering conclusions: The more television
people watched, the fewer facts they knew; and the less people knew
in terms of basic facts, the more likely they were to back the Bush
administration."

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