One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors:
Plato

Sunday, April 03, 2011

Politicians do not call elections unless they think they can win

An obvious statement I know but one that needs to made because of all of the BS we saw leading up to this election.

Many in the chattering classes were on Mr. Ignatieff because of his desire to have an election. They pointed to the public polls and stating he had no chance so why force one now?

The obvious answer is he believes he can win and he is proving that by his performance this past week. He knows that the Conservatives are vulnerable in a number of fronts and that their expressed desire to not have an election was genuine. In politics it is generally a good idea to force your opponent to do something they do not want to do.

As the last week has demonstrated all of the reports in the media on how Mr. Harper wanted this election and how he maneuvered the opposition into bringing him down to force one was unadulterated bunk. Mr. Harper is not performing like someone who wanted to be campaigning. Quite the opposite is true. Many have noted that he does not seem to be campaigning to win. That is not true, of course he is campaigning to win. The problem is he did not want this election and he was not ready for it.

Of course, these men did not come to their decisions at random, they did seek out data and one source of that data in internal polling. Political parties poll to assist in their decision making and as a result they ask many questions the media do not think of or just refuse to ask. The "desire for change" question happens to be one that we used to see all of the time but has now disappeared from the media polls.

Armed with this data, the knowledge of the progress of their election planning processes and some political instinct the two party leaders determined whether they could win an election. Mr. Ignatieff believed he could and Mr. Harper could very well believe the same thing. We saw the result in Week one.

Are they correct in their beliefs. That question will be answered on May 2.