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Rates Manage to Maintain Their Range With Help From The Fed and Stocks

March 23, 2018

Market Summary

Mortgage rates have managed to hold remarkably steady for more than a month now. This is a major departure from the previous trend of 2018 which had seen a fairly relentless move higher. Like last week, there was a threat to that stability again this week as investors braced for the Fed Announcement.

Rates actually revisited their long-term highs, but they didn't break above them. After new Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, investors jumped back in the bond market (higher demand for bonds = lower rates). Stock market weakness associated with trade war fears also created some additional buying demand in bonds.

But just like rates weren't eager to break recent ceilings, they were just as shy about breaking below recent floors. This decreases the incentive for floating one's mortgage rate as opposed to locking--not that the incentive has been very high for the past 6 months anyway.

-Matt Graham, Mortgage News Daily

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

Week in Review

Rates shown below are based on the 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

Beginning Average:

4.53%

Ending Average:

4.55%

Weekly Change:

+0.02%

Yearly Change:

+0.32%

Friday, March 16, 2018 : 4.53% (+0.01%)

Mortgage rates rose modestly today, but many lenders were essentially unchanged compared to yesterday's latest offerings. Moreover, rates ended the week slightly lower compared to last Friday's latest levels. That's no small victory in 2018, despite the fact that it is a small victory in general.

Mortgage rates have been on a tear recently, moving sideways with reckless abandon. Since the middle of February, the "effective rate" (based on actual rate sheet offerings and upfront costs) has held inside a narrow range of 4.52% and 4.58%. This lies in stark contrast to the persistent move higher during the first month and a half of 2018 which saw the same effective rate rise from roughly 4.0% into the 4.5% range.

Mortgage rates rose to the highest levels in more than a week today, but that's the most dramatic way to put it. In terms of outright movement, today was fairly average. It only earns the "highest in a week" distinction due to the incredibly flat trend that persisted from Tuesday through yesterday afternoon. More simply put, most borrowers would still be quoted the same rate as yesterday with the only difference being slightly higher upfront costs (or lower upfront credit, depending on the scenario).

Mortgage rates rose to new 4-year highs this morning as lenders took a defensive stance ahead of the afternoon's Fed Announcement. The caution proved to be warranted, at least at first, as bond markets reacted negatively to the first phase of Fed-related information. Notably, the Fed Announcement itself wasn't the issue. If anything, it was moderately friendly for rates. Instead, it was the Fed's rate hike outlook (released concurrently with the policy announcement) that did the damage. But again, we're talking about underlying bond markets here. Lenders' rate sheets already reflected that damage preemptively.

Mortgage rates continued lower today on a combination of global reaction to yesterday's Fed Announcement and apprehension over new tariffs on China. The Fed Announcement was positive due to Jerome Powell's press conference--an event that happens late enough in the day that overseas markets don't really have a chance to react. Because of that, domestic markets sometimes hold back a little until they can feel out the global reaction.

Mortgage rates were just barely higher in many cases today, although underlying bond markets recovered enough ground by the afternoon to suggest Monday's rates will recoup those losses. The only catch is that other factors can have an effect on bonds between now and then. If bond markets are weaker by Monday morning, this afternoon's strength will be overshadowed. Bottom line here: rates will start Monday with a very slight advantage "all things being equal." Incidentally, the reason we don't see this advantage today is that the bond market gains were small enough and happened late enough in the day that mortgage lenders didn't update their rate sheets.

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.