The California GOP's test in San Diego

By Alexander Burns

06/11/12 04:50 PM EDT

San Diego has long been a kind of Republican green zone in California, even as the state has trended steadily more Democratic. In fact, the city has only elected one Democratic mayor since the 1960s, and she left office two decades ago.

So the upcoming San Diego mayoral runoff — pitting liberal Democratic Rep. Bob Filner against conservative GOP City Councilman Carl DeMaio — is an interesting test case for just how dead Republicans actually are in California. The GOP has lamented its plight on the legislative, congressional and state levels, but in a state of California’s size, there still ought to be major races even a beleaguered out party can win.

The poll, conducted for 10News by SurveyUSA, showed Filner with 46 percent and DeMaio with 43 percent, and the rest undecided. That's within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent. …

According to the new poll, those who voted for Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher are split between the two candidates, while those who cast ballots for District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis prefer Filner by a 2 to 1 margin. Filner also holds an 8-point advantage in support of independents in the poll.

There’ll be a lot of other races to worry about in November, but something to watch in any case …