Texas poll: Obama 47, Perry 45

posted at 6:50 pm on June 29, 2011 by Allahpundit

This one’s even less convincing than yesterday’s dumb Obama/Palin poll of Alaska, but it’s summertime and the horserace bloggin’ is easy. Fish are jumpin’ and the news cycle is slow:

Only 33% of voters in the state think he should make a bid for the White House compared to 59% opposed to him running. More surprising than that? Perry actually trails Barack Obama 47-45 in a hypothetical match up in the state.

Perry’s trailing Obama certainly has nothing to do with the President being popular. Only 42% of voters in the state like the job he’s doing to 55% who rate him poorly. Texas is a Republican state to begin with him and Obama has a lot more Democrats (14%) who disapprove of him than GOP voters who approve (6%) and beyond that he’s on negative ground with independents at 46/47.

Perry, however, is almost as unpopular. Only 43% of voters approve of him with 52% giving him bad marks. Most striking in Perry’s numbers is a horrible 33/62 standing with independents. He also has 21% of Republicans disapproving of him while only 12% of Democrats cross over to give him good marks. Perry may prove to be a strong Presidential candidate but his numbers in Texas are nothing to write home about.

Palin also supposedly trails Obama by two points. In Texas, which hasn’t voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter was elected in the aftermath of Watergate. (Romney, T-Paw, and Bachmann fare better, each leading Obama by various margins.) Anyone seriously believe that? Even a squish like McCain took Texas by 12 points despite an exit poll showing an almost even split among Republicans, Democrats, and independents. What’s that margin going to look like after four full years of Hopenchange “magic,” with a local boy possibly as the GOP nominee?

On the other hand, Ed Kilgore of TNR noted a few weeks ago that Perry may not be the rock star at home that he is nationally:

On top of it all, persistent doubts about Perry’s competence (and in some quarters, honesty) have made him less than a political powerhouse in his home state of Texas, even as the state’s powerful Republican trend in the last decade, along with an energy-industry-boom, have given him enormous advantages. In 2006, for instance, he only won 39 percent of the general election vote in a peculiar, four-way gubernatorial race (with one independent candidate, the comedic musician and novelist Kinky Friedman, probably taking most of his double-digit-percentage vote from Perry’s Democratic opponent). In 2010, meanwhile, he won by solid margins against his primary challenger, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, and his general election opponent, Houston Mayor Bill White—but this was right at the peak of the Tea Party uprising, which Perry very successfully exploited, and the fact remains that he was vulnerable enough to draw these legitimate challenges in the first place. His relationship with Texas Republicans, moreover, has always been somewhat shaky, as evidenced by the revolt of GOP legislators against a business tax plan Perry pushed through a few years ago, and his rumored frosty relations with his great benefactors, the Bush family. And even his friends in the social conservative wing of the Texas GOP were appalled by his 2007 proposal to require that every sixth-grade girl in Texas be vaccinated for the HPV virus.

All in all, you have to wonder why Texans, including hard-core conservatives, seem less impressed than people in other states with the prospect of a Perry presidential run. Some appear to be stunned at the very idea, treating him as a sort of Chauncey Gardiner figure who has stumbled, through remarkable luck, into the national spotlight.

Can a guy who’s been governor for 10 and a half years really be regarded so poorly by his constituents? Well, the Texas Tribune polled the locals on the GOP presidential field late last month, before Perrymania had taken off. First place was “don’t know” with 14 percent; Palin was next at 12 percent. Rick Perry? Tenth place at just four percent, two points behind … Donald Trump. Hmmmm. (However, 48 percent said they’d vote for the GOP nominee, whoever that may be, versus just 30 percent who said they’d vote for Obama.)

But that was then and this is now. Two more national polls for you to chew on as a gloss on this. First, a Marist poll of tea-party supporters found Perry leading with 20 percent, three points ahead of, er, Mitt Romney. I shall graciously let that result pass without comment. And a new Fox News national poll published within the past hour has Romney on top with 18 percent but Perry in second place with a bullet at 13 percent. Bachmann is third with 11 percent, then Giuliani with 10 and Palin with eight. With a field that wide open, how does RP not run?

Blowback

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Most Republicans disliked Perry in the 2010 Governor election but guess what? He carried the state 55% to 45%. There is absolutely no way in H-E-L-L that Perry loses against Obama in Texas. People here didn’t even hate Bill White and he was still toast.

Let me guess, they conducted the poll in downtown Houston, Austin, or Dallas. Those areas are all tipping purple because so many from the blue states that are sinking are moving here and bringing their dumb ideas with them. The rest of the state is solid red.

Sort of amusing to see two polls come out so close to each other where Sarah can’t win in Alaska and Perry can’t win in Texas.
Yet somehow Obama can win everywhere. Obama? We are really to believe that? We are to believe somehow that the entire country is filled with masochists who just love all the kicks in the face Obama has been giving them the past 3 years?
Any freaking poll that shows Obama winning anywhere except Chicago is suspect to me. I know Americans can be stupid, but just how stupid are we. There is a limit to our stupidlyness!

Can a guy who’s been governor for 10 and a half years really be regarded so poorly by his constituents?

He sure can, and while I do believe the numbers are off, Perry is not popular at all here in Texas. There just hasn’t been anyone credible to run against his elections, otherwise we’d have booted him out long ago.

Perry losing Texas, Palin can’t win Alaska, Bachmann not sure what state she is in….
Ladies and Gentlemen it is time to call on a true outsider, one who has the conservative principals intact, unspoiled by affiliations with the AIP, crackpots, and Rino texans.
Let the call go forth “Hal Jordan it is time!”

Look, Perry fatigue is pretty common in Texas right now, but despite that, he beat the “exciting, fresh, dynamic” mayor of Houston by 10 points in 2010. And another thing, Obama won Bexar, Travis, Harris, and Dallas counties (San Antonio, Austin, Houston, Dallas) in 2008 and still lost Texas by 12 points. Obama will likely not carry those four counties again in 2012 and he has to if he has any remote shot of winning Texas. So, suspect does not begin to describe this poll.

Polls at this stage of the cycle are only “Cute”, not very meaningful. Yeah, Perry’s a squish, has some baggage. Field is young, all horses aren’t at the gate yet. Surprise candidate in the wings? Surprise, shocking news headline awaiting any and all contenders? Who knows? “Only the Shadow knows” and he ain’t talking.

I live in Austin — famously the most liberal part of Texas — and Perry is even more popular than that here. How do the polls get so skewed? Sorry to sound conspiracist, but I think someone is paying good money to try and discredit the governor. No one thinks he’s perfect, but he certainly isn’t “hated” like that. Obama on the other hand…

I well remember the flood of manufactured media polls telling us how wonderful Slick was after it leaked he was boinking the hired help (and boldly lectured / lied to the country about it) and during the impeachment proceedings.

Now I want you to listen to me, because I’m only going to say this once… the Old media are scared excrementless.

If anything, this is a reflection of a real sense of mild dissatisfaction amongst conservatives in the state, and a clear representation of the hatred liberals in Texas have for the governor.

As to dissatisfaction, it has more to do with lingering concerns from his earlier years, not so much recent stuff, and his inability to measure up to a Reagan-esque profile (not many could, true).

There’s some vague, undefinable aspect of Perry that doesn’t sit well. With GWB, you may not have liked him, or you might have disagreed, but there was never any doubt about his conviction. Sure, he was a political animal, but you knew deep down that he was making the calls the best he could and for good reasons.

Perry doesn’t come off that way (fairly or unfairly). He comes off in kind of the same way that Mitt Romney did in ’08, minus the flip-flop baggage. A kind of too-good-looking, slippery character, but in Parry’s case, with the impression of a six-shooter on his hip instead of Romney’s New Englandish quasi-elitism (By the way, I voted for Romney in ’07 and he was the first candidate I ever gave money to). To illustrate, Perry is known as Governor Good-Hair to several local conservative radio hosts. His business tax mentioned above was a BIG deal, and was part of the impetus that Republican Senator Dan Patrick, one of the most influential conservatives in Texas, got into politics to begin with.

All that said, the poll is not representative of November 2012. IF Perry runs, and IF he gets the nomination, he will win Texas by 10 points minimum, likely 20. I will say, however, that there is much more enthusiasm outside the state than here inside it. In that vague aspect, the poll is illuminative.

His business tax mentioned above was a BIG deal, and was part of the impetus that Republican Senator Dan Patrick, one of the most influential conservatives in Texas, got into politics to begin with.

All that said, the poll is not representative of November 2012.
jtkerch79 on June 29, 2011 at 7:16 PM

I’d say that was a pretty spot on analysis. Dan Patrick is thinking of running for KBH’s seat which would be great! He was mad this morning because the GOP house didn’t bring the sanctuary bill to a vote and it’s dead now. That wasn’t Perry’s fault, it was the speaker’s fault. But I digress.

I live here in TX and while I have my issues with Perry there is no way in He!! I would vote for Obama! I suspect that is the same for most Texans. This is one very big sham, really, how can they put swill like this out?

Sort of amusing to see two polls come out so close to each other where Sarah can’t win in Alaska and Perry can’t win in Texas.
Yet somehow Obama can win everywhere. Obama? We are really to believe that? We are to believe somehow that the entire country is filled with masochists who just love all the kicks in the face Obama has been giving them the past 3 years?
Any freaking poll that shows Obama winning anywhere except Chicago is suspect to me. I know Americans can be stupid, but just how stupid are we. There is a limit to our stupidlyness!

How about you just school me on how to not sound like a victim? Is there a way to legitimately express my idea or no? If there is a certain phraseology I can use in the future that doesn’t offend your sensibilities, I’ll try to accomodate you.

Ten years of someone in office will always wane their popularity. That only explains why non Texans are more enthused about Perry than us Texans. The other explanation about this poll has been covered.

By the way, are there actually conservative ideas or candidates that you support and occasionally argue for? If so, could you point me to a post or two so I can try and see what common ground we share? I’m just wondering, because all I every see you do here is complain about Palin and her supporters.

I’d say that was a pretty spot on analysis. Dan Patrick is thinking of running for KBH’s seat which would be great! He was mad this morning because the GOP house didn’t bring the sanctuary bill to a vote and it’s dead now. That wasn’t Perry’s fault, it was the speaker’s fault. But I digress.

TxAnn56 on June 29, 2011 at 7:23 PM

They didn’t get the TSA fondling bill either and I am rather upset at that. I blame Dewhurst for that. I was actually impressed Perry added it to the special session, but he probably knew it wouldn’t pass. Would love to see Dan Patrick run for senate – was hoping he would would have run for governor in 2010 but it was probably too soon as he is not too well known outside Houston area yet.

I’m a Texas Republican who is not a Perry fan, and I’d rather he didn’t run for president. But to argue that he’d lose this state against Obama is impossible to believe — at least without a clearer understanding of the breakdown of those polled and at least one other poll that shows a similar result.

They didn’t get the TSA fondling bill either and I am rather upset at that. I blame Dewhurst for that. I was actually impressed Perry added it to the special session, but he probably knew it wouldn’t pass. Would love to see Dan Patrick run for senate – was hoping he would would have run for governor in 2010 but it was probably too soon as he is not too well known outside Houston area yet.

Corsair on June 29, 2011 at 7:37 PM

From what I hear, Joe Strauss (Tx house speaker) said that the TSA bill was a publicity stunt by Perry. There’s no love lost between those two. Re; the sanctuary city bill, HEB and some other cheap labor groups twisted some arms. Disgusting. I think Dan could win and he’d be another DeMint that conservatives need.

By the way, are there actually conservative ideas or candidates that you support and occasionally argue for? If so, could you point me to a post or two so I can try and see what common ground we share? I’m just wondering, because all I every see you do here is complain about Palin and her supporters.

Kataklysmic on June 29, 2011 at 7:35 PM

Bradky? Conservative? Bwhahahahaha… Bradky wants the Republicans to morph into the party of his secret idol, the one and only Chicago Jesus.

Bradky? Conservative? Bwhahahahaha… Bradky wants the Republicans to morph into the party of his secret idol, the one and only Chicago Jesus.

pseudoforce on June 29, 2011 at 7:48 PM

You know that is how it has always seemed reading his comments, but then I could swear I have read poists by him and others saying he was a conservative, etc., etc. If he’s a conservative, I’ve certainly never seen any evidence of it.

You know that is how it has always seemed reading his comments, but then I could swear I have read poists by him and others saying he was a conservative, etc., etc. If he’s a conservative, I’ve certainly never seen any evidence of it.

Kataklysmic on June 29, 2011 at 7:57 PM

Bradky’s a moderate who does what moderates do best: piss on conservatives.

This must be in two Vitenams, flag on Mars Sheila Jackson Lee’s district. Those idiots would vote for a peanut butter sandwich if it promised more welfare.
Now, 38% of new jobs came out of Texas. It is a fine state, but I think that is in spite of Rick Perry. He talks a good game, but he’s all hat, no cattle.

From what I hear, Joe Strauss (Tx house speaker) said that the TSA bill was a publicity stunt by Perry. There’s no love lost between those two. Re; the sanctuary city bill, HEB and some other cheap labor groups twisted some arms. Disgusting. I think Dan could win and he’d be another DeMint that conservatives need.

TxAnn56 on June 29, 2011 at 7:48 PM

Lots of email was forwarded to me by a friend from TX. You’d be surprised at how many rabbis were ranting about how Christians were after Strauss because he was Jewish. Now while my friend is Jewish he is solidly Texan and very solidly conservative.

The world according to AP – Generate comments and traffic by posting an inherently flawed survey that bashes the most frequent and loyal blog followers. Advertisers are happy, Ed is happy and the rest can go to…..

PS. The sky is falling and it is caused by manmade global warming – so says chicken little, so it must be so. Right AP?.

Everybody here has a “story” about Perry. Like the time he was convoying up 35 headin home and got stopped by a cop who spread a story about how much of an a-hole he was. And other stories about his snubbing other good folks. Believe me, Perry will do fine here.

Not quite a “figurehead” but we do have the “weak executive” type of government here… left over from Reconstruction. The Lt. Gov. has the legislative power. The governor’s power lies mostly with appointments and, of course, the ability to call special session. That being noted, Perry, after 10 years, has appointed just about everyone who matters in this state, so he has clout.