2011 composite projections update

Please read the version 1.0 post, and the older posts linked from that one, for details on what is and is not included in these projections, how they get generated, and so forth. I don’t mind answering questions, but I’d rather not repeat any answers if they’re already included in previous posts. :-)

Here are the changes since the last version:

* Added projections from the 16th and last provider I’ll be integrating this year. The more projections we have, the wider a range of opinions
get incorporated, and the closer we come to consensus.

* Filtered to include players appearing in six or more projections, rather than eight last time, to represent more players. Keep in mind though that those with fewer projections are typically minor leaguers, and these represent “what if” projections, since the playing time amounts are often unrealistic. So don’t get too excited just yet about those projections for Jesus Montero (right) or Mike Moustakas, since I doubt they’ll see that much playing time!

* Added date of birth on the batting and pitching tabs to help find those all-important Age 27 seasons;

* Added a games by position tab, with MLB and minor league totals from last year, to help determine position eligibility based on different league requirements.

The last steps I need to do in my own prep are to adjust for playing time and roles, that is, starter vs. relief pitcher vs. closer, etc. I encourage everyone to tailor these to fit their own expectations in those regards, but try to not tinker too much with the other numbers except for pro-rating them to match the playing time… otherwise it defeats the purpose of doing these in the first place!

I hope this helps you all in your draft prep. Enjoy!

Thanks,

Cory

Like this:

LikeLoading...

Related

52 Comments

I participated in a mock draft online just for practice. It was for 12 teams and had the positions for C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, 2 Util, 2 SP, 2 RP, 4 P, 5 BN. I was lucky enough to have the first pick and here is the team I drafted in order of the picks I made, plus the overall draft results (* is me). Let me know what you think and if I had a good strategy.

I agree with Cory on drafting Felix too early and the Beltre pick is a definite reach. I love the Valverde pick and you did a solid job with mid to late-round starters (D. Hudson, Shields, De La Rosa). I think power could be an issue as Pujols is really your only 30-plus HR lock. I also don’t like the idea of drafting two pitchers (Johan and Strasburg) who won’t be back until July at the earliest. Even if you have 2 open DL spots, it limits your roster flexibility.

Last week Zach indicated that Cory and Mike are proponents of not drafting a SP until nearly the double digit rounds but the response to Glenn (above) indicates that maybe this philiosophy changes in a H2H league. Could you clarify a bit please?

Also, what are y’all thinking about Ted Lilly. The most recent projections have him approaching 200 IP, a 3.26 ERA, 150+ K, and a WHIP below 1.15. I know these are just projections but these are pretty impressive numbers. Where do you see Lilly as fitting in on a fantasy staff?

Thanks guys for the input.
Cory: Yeah, I know it was a lot, but I thought including everything might provide a better context to understand my picks. It is a H2H league, so there are at least 5-6 slots for SPs in the starting roster. Beltre was more of a choice made out of last resort because a lot of the better 3Bs went by really fast. If drafting a SP in the 2nd round is too early, then when would be the right time?

Zach: I honestly didn’t know Santana and Strasburg wouldn’t be ready until July. Good to know. And yeah, I probably should have focused more on HRs especially in the earlier rounds. I tried to just get good players in each position with balanced stats, but it may be better to have specialists like HR-hitters and base stealers, etc. What would be a good number to shoot for that specialize in each stat category?

Hey guys good job with the projections, must admit though am VERY suprised with the projection you given for Drew Stubbs: only 19HR, 29SB and 252 av . Now he had more homers and steals than that last year, so how do these numbers suggest he’s gonna break out and be the next (mini) Car-Go? Im confused, even if you multiply it up so he plays 162 games, he still only ends up with numbers similar to last year.
Was also wondering the reason for the converative GP for each player, I’ve tried reading through the previous explanations and still can’t really figure that bit out :)
Big Barry
East End, England

Big Barry,
Remember that these aren’t the 411’s projections but averaged projections from multiple sources. If you don’t believe me, look at Edwin Encarnacion and notice he isn’t projected to have 35 homers ;)

would you go offense with your first pick and take one of these guys: Rollins, Weeks, Morales, Pence or Bruce or would you take a pitcher and go with JJohnson,or Ubaldo or Verlander? Also I have a trade proposal from another team offering Votto and Reyes for Dunn and Tulo. Would you do this deal?

Hey guys, love your work! I have 2 questions:
1) Cory, what do you use for replacement level when generating SGP for DH’s.
2) I’m in a keeper league (standard 5X5 roto) and was wondering if you could recommend an OF for me. With 50 keepers off the board, I’m looking at drafting one of the following OF’s at the end of the 1st round (assuming they’re available): Ethier, Pence, Bruce, Markakis, Stubbs, Ellsbury, Stanton, or BJ Upton. Which 2 or 3 do you like the most for 2011?

411 people,
Doesn’t Pedro Alvarez this year = Chris Davis circa 2009 = not worth the risk? The draft position, low avg but power potential, rookie-ness are all comparable. Aren’t these comparable players? How can we draft this guy knowing what happened with Davis?
I remember calling the 411 satellite radio show in ’09 which led into a discussion with special guest Joe Sheehan, and Sheehan predicted Chris Davis’ demise. Makes me wonder what Sheehan thinks of Alvarez too.
Thanks for your opinions,
-Mike from NH

love the work and would appreciate more podcasts pre season – focussing on key comparisons, risks etc

As this year we are drafting before you preview show I have a quick question for you. roto 5*5 with every position except extra CI, MI and 4OF not 3.

I have kept Zimmerman, King Felix, Jose Bautista and brandon Phillips and have the first draft pick. The highest rated players not kept are Nelson Cruz and Shin soo choo. They appear closely matched but I am erring on the side of Choo going for steals and average over power. What do you think? (I thought of going 1b but only Morneau, Dunn and Konerko are left and think they would all be a reach)

Yeah, in a H2H points league, pitching tends to be a bit more important than usual as the scoring tends to favor pitching. Although I’d still look for bargain pitchers, you might want to take a pitcher or two within the first 6 or so rounds in that format.

As for Ted Lilly, I’m a big fan of the guy. Those projections are probably overly optimistic but he’s always posted a strong K/BB ratio and has pitched to a sub-1.25 WHIP for four straight years now…a solid #3 SP in standard mixed leagues.
*************************************************
Glenn,

Depends on the league format but in a standard 12 teamer I try to aim for around 250 HRs and 140 SBs. That should put you in good shape.
*********************************************
Aubrey,

My picks would be Hanley, Bautista, Reyes, Santana. Upton for a 2 is a bit pricey for my taste.
*******************************************
G,

1. I’d go with Kelly Johnson…above average power at a thin position. I don’t like Strasburg at that price considering his health status and I think you could get McCann back in the draft if you wanted.

2. Yeah, I’d let both Reyes and Pedroia go. McCutchen is the obvious choice among that group.
*********************************************
Dmenz,

Although I’d usually choose the hitter, in this case I have to go with Johnson. He’s just the most valuable player of that group and you already have a very solid core of hitters.

As for the trade offer, it’s a very tempting one but I think I’d pass. Reyes’ health status going forward is my main concern, and though Votto is a definite upgrade over Dunn, I’d MUCH rather have Tulo than Reyes. Also, you’re actually losing power by going from Dunn to Votto so the only negative is the drop in batting average. I’ll take the hit if it means holding onto Tulo.

I like all of those guys with the exception of Markakis but if I had to pick three it would be Pence (ultra-consistent), Bruce (power upside and a couple seasons under his belt) and Ellsbury (injury risk but proven fantasy stud). Stubbs and Stanton are also great options so tough to pick.
**********************************************
Dmenz,

I like the power and though AVG could be a problem, at least you balanced Dunn, Alvarez and Upton with Tulo and Ichiro. Weakest link is saves as Thornton and Francisco aren’t guaranteed jobs and Broxton could be on thin ice to start the season. But overall, solid team.
*********************************************
Mike,

Interesting point. I’ve set it aside to be discussed on a future podcast and you make a convincing argument! For now, one thing I can say is that Alvarez’s Minor League track record with respect to K/BB rate is a little more impressive than Davis’ which leads me to think that Pedro has a legit chance to improve in that area with more big league experience.
**********************************************
Tim,

Choo and Cruz are very close…on Mock Draft Central, Choo is on average the #7 OF while Cruz is ranked #9. I’d also lean towards Choo. Cruz clearly has more power upside but he’s proven to be a bit injury-prone and is an extremely streaky hitter. I’d rather go with the more consistent Choo and his higher AVG.

Hi Guys, absolutely loved the Over/Underrated show! Of course, now you have me salivating for more! I don’t remember anyone really discussing guys like Logan Morrison, Ryan Raburn, or Gordan Beckham. Morrison may be blocked from playing time this year, Raburn could be a real start, in my opinion, and I still have faith that Beckham will not be the next Alex Gordon-alike. I was planning on targeting all three of these guys in my ten team mixed H2H league in which I kept Hanley, King Felix, Bautista, J. Upton, and M. Holliday. Do these guys constitute pickups within the first five rounds after my keepers?

Hey guys! Man it’s great to be back when I start to see baseball highlights all over tv again. I’m pumped this year, and I just found out I have the 5th pick in my 12 team H2H non keeper. I was wondering if you think CarGon is too early to swipe at the 5th pick. I know he wont be there on the return trip to me and I’d really like to have him. My other option is to take Tulo to sure-up a thin position. I’m in a tough spot here, I feel like after Pujols, Hanley, Miggy that everyone is a reach for me and doesnt deserve the 5th pick.

You said I should keep Hanley, Reyes, Bautista, Santana, but in my previous message I put that i had Adrian Gonzalez (3rd rd) to keep as well. So since Upton is out which four should I keep? I’m guessing it’s between Reyes (4th) and Santana (21st). Given I’ve got Hanley at SS already and catcher is weak I’m thinking Santana.

Do you think Martin is going to have a comeback type of a year now that hes with the Yankees and appears to be somewhat healthy? Do you think any of these guys are better options are catcher? Jaso, Buck, Y.Molina, Ruiz, Pierzynski?

Those guys are all on the waiver wire and even though I know the season hasn’t even started yet I’m always keeping tabs on the wire.

Do you think Martin is going to have a comeback type of a year now that hes with the Yankees and appears to be somewhat healthy? Do you think any of these guys are better options at catcher? Jaso, Buck, Y.Molina, Ruiz, Pierzynski?

Those guys are all on the waiver wire and even though I know the season hasn’t even started yet I’m always keeping tabs on the wire.

Hello Zach,
I post a question on MArch 1st. I was seeking for the best keepers in my roster. (3 Keepers, Min 1 pitcher 1 batter)
We use mock draft central to get the ADP for the players, in order to place them on a round pos, and soem other rules apply too.
The keepers you suggested were: Cruz, McCutchen, Price.
It happens that after aplying the rules of our league and ADP of MDC, this 3 player are 5 rounders, so because of that, i will get them in round 3, 4 and 5, instead of 5, 4, 10 (respectively) as it were in last post.
Would you still select this 3 players?
My other options are: Ubaldo Rd 4, Marcum Rd 12, Rivera Rd 6, D Hudson Rd 13, K Johnson Rd 12, V-Mart Rd 3.
Now i’m not so sure about Cruz on Rd 3, and Price at Rd 5 as this are their actual values. I’m not getting a bargain on neither of them.
Thanks a lot for your advice!!!

411 Masterminds,
Cheers for the feed back earlier. I have a thought for u to talk me out of please.. I am keeping Kelly Johnson, McCutchen, Stanton, Alvarez and Price, all at low pick value. I know catcher is a shallow position so thinking to use my last keeper pick on McCann for pick 4. Looking at ur mock draft Mauer ( who I want, went in our 1st round last yr) went at pick 23. My league is only a 12 team league and Siano picked McCann in the second round. I have pick 11 in 1st round and pick 2 in 2nd round so hope to grab Joe there. I was going to hold McCann incase I missed Joe and if I did catch Joe, Use McCann as a bargaining chip to fill any holes I may have from the draft. head to head point league, 26 man rosters…
Cheers,
G

Thanks for the feedback above. I believe N Feliz will end up in the rotation to start the year. Around what round (standard 12 team 5X5 roto) wound you put him in if this were the case? Or, rather than a round per se, what tier of starters would you group him with?

I’d go with Soto. Nathan for a 9 is solid value but considering his health situation, there’s a good chance you can get him back for around that price on draft day. Personally, I’m very high on Nathan but most owners will be reluctant to use a pre-round 9 pick to take him.
************************************************
Malik,

The way I look at it is to ask myself “Are these guys top-100 players?” (50 keepers + 50 players taken in first five rounds.) Beckham is close and when we add in the keeper factor and the 2B factor, I’d say yes, he’s worth targeting that early. As for the other two, forget it. I like Morrison (own him in my NL-only league) but he’s nowhere near a top-100 keeper. He’ll hit for a solid AVG but his power is still a work in progress. I’d be shocked if he surpasses 15 home runs this year. And it’s not like he plays in a favorable park. Raburn would also be a no. A red hot finish to last season padded his stats and he strikes out too much to post a high AVG. I see his upside as .275-25-85…and that’s being generous. Is an outfielder who puts up these numbers a top-100 pick? Nope.
************************************************
Ed,

I’m cautiously optimistic about Martin. Hopefully, the change of scenery does help. We’ve seen what he’s capable of so based on his upside alone I’d much rather have him than any of those waiver wire guys.
*********************************************
mfridzon,

Keeping McCann for a 4th rounder is fine but I’m not so sure I’d be targeting Mauer as well, particularly if there are more attractive options available at other positions. You’re already addressing position scarcity by keeping McCann, so I think going after Mauer might be going a little overboard. Who’s to say that you’ll be able to get fair value in a McCann trade. Maybe the other owners in your league value position scarcity less than you do. Keep McCann and keep your options open on draft day.
*************************************************
Ross,

Yes, Wagner is retired but was for some reason on this list anyway!
***********************************************
Hank,

Out of courtesy to the various sources, I don’t think Cory has ever shared that information.
*****************************************
dallin,

A lot of great choices here but I’d lean towards M-Cab, Votto and D. Hudson with Rasmus a close fourth and Choo also very tempting.
***********************************************
csmorash,

I actually think Feliz will stay in the closer role but if he does become a starter I’d slot him into the Wandy Rodriguez/Ryan Dempster/John Danks level…in other words, solid #3 SP in mixed leagues. Personally, however, I’d stay away unless it’s a keeper league. It’ll likely take him some time to adjust and his draft day price will simply be too high thanks to all the hoopla surrounding this story. Burning an early-round pick on him could prove to be a mistake. There’s just too much risk involved.

Whats up guys,
Just last night I had my NFBC satellite draft (15 teams). I won’t crowd your post with the results, but I’ll leave the link to the draft board below. I’m looking for some feedback as to how I did. I feel like I got some really good value in the draft. I’m never one to pay for pitching or saves as I chase them every year so you’ll see that I didn’t put much of an investment into them, unless of course they came at good value.

I had the 7th pick in the draft and my strategy was to take players with power, speed and up side on the front end and then just go value after that.

My draft was done after the Zack Greinke and Chase Utley news broke so as you can imagine they fell in the draft. Oddly enough they both ended up on my team. Check out where I drafted them and let me know if I did Team Fantasy 411 good. My team name is O’s before Bro’s.

Hey Zach, have Freddy Freeman in my minor league system and see he is raking this spring. How do I approach drafting at 1B/CI this year. Do you think he’ll put up good enough power numbers to warrant a CI spot, if so presumably I can disregard filling that spot in the draft and just draft a fill-in right at the end. Or would it be safer to draft a decent CI, and if Freddy starts to rake at the big league level then to make a trade. Thanks.

I’m in a 10 team keeper league with the deadline this Monday to submit my keepers. I’m down to Utley or Cliff Lee for my final spot. Who would you take with the recent news on Chase? It just seems with each new report, the prognosis sounds grimmer and surgery becomes more likely meaning 2 months on the DL.

Thanks Zach, Siano and Cory for your opinions on Alvarez vs Chris Davis. My eyes were opened a little as to the difference between the two players, and now I don’t see Alvarez as a supremely overrated fantasy player anymore, but relatively fair value at that draft position. If I’m in desperate need of a 3B by then in my draft, and I really hope I’m not, then I won’t be devastated banking in Alvarez.
-Mike in NH

I wouldn’t be too concerned about Rasmus’ rocky relationship with LaRussa. If he produces, he’ll play. I think those projections are dead on. He’s a solid third outfielder in standard 12 teamers with some upside.
**************************************************
amigos,

At this time, I’d feel a little more comfortable with Freeman at utility than at CI. Some very solid first basemen (Adam LaRoche types) can be had in the latter rounds so I’d actually draft one of those guys to hold the fort down for Freeman and then if Freeman blossoms you’ll just have added depth from which to make a trade.
*********************************************
sobesurfer,

Yeah, I have to agree with you on that one. I’m scared to death of Utley right now and Lee is a legit ace.

Hi Guys,
Just tried to download your compo s/sheet and it cannoy find the document?!? I know I accessed this since it has been posted but any ideas why i can do so now. It invaluable to my preps for the league over here in the uk.
Any guidance would be great.

See the note on top of the latest blog post. We’ve been having a ton of technical problems while upgrading our blog software. Terrible timing I know. Hopefully you saved it when you were able to access it. These issues should be sorted out soon but maybe not in time for your draft.

I’d like Cory and Mike to comment on Erick Aybar versus Elvis Andrus. I can’t for the life of me figure out why Andrus is so much more valuable than Aybar. Aybar is projected to lead off for the Angels and now has Pujols and Morales to drive him in.

The composites have Andrus who stole 30 bags last year and has been increasing his totals progressively, regressing to 17 stolen bases, yet aging guys like Victorino, are expected to increase by 12?

It seems like with Aybar you’ll have a solid late round option who will score plenty of runs with the guys behind him driving him in, potentially steal 35 bags, with a .275 average and potential 10 to 12 homers. Maybe I’m crazy, I’d love the guy on the show to tell me I’m not.

Meta

The following are trademarks or service marks of Major League Baseball entities and may be used only with permission of Major League Baseball Properties, Inc. or the relevant Major League Baseball entity: Major League, Major League Baseball, MLB, the silhouetted batter logo, World Series, National League, American League, Division Series, League Championship Series, All-Star Game, and the names, nicknames, logos, uniform designs, color combinations, and slogans designating the Major League Baseball clubs and entities, and their respective mascots, events and exhibitions.