Prospects for L-Band, IoT & M2M Markets

Prospects for L-Band, IoT & M2M Markets. The comprehensive in-depth analysis of key trends and drivers, market forecasts in revenue and terminals by vertical, geographic and application segment.| Published September 2017

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An expert analysis of the mobile satellite industry, assessing key trends and drivers in this market characterized by both a number of growth opportunities and challenges for key players. It includes a complete analysis of the MSS value chain, including ten-year forecasts for MSS terminals & revenues broken down by main market segments.

Highlights of the report

The MSS market will grow from 4.3 million terminals in 2016 to more than 12 million terminals by 2026. M2M/IoT devices will have a significant share in this subscriber growth, while their contribution to operators’ revenues should be more limited. MSS wholesale revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.2% between 2016 and 2026, driven by MSS aero broadband demand, M2M/IoT applications and other services increasingly addressing lower-end segments and emerging regions, such as the promising small boats segment.

The diversification and improvement in MSS products should be enabled by recent and upcoming MSS systems including Iridium NEXT (under deployment), Inmarsat’s I-6 (expected in 2020), Thuraya’s next generation constellation (planned for 2020 but no satellite yet ordered) and a new generation of hybrid networks from Globalstar and Ligado Networks. These systems should allow for new, higher data-rate services, and will combine with new ground solutions and terminals.

Increasing competition from VSAT mobile solutions, due to more efficient equipment and lower capacity costs, is expected to weigh on MSS’s market share in the high-end, high-ARPU markets. MSS operators will thus have to review their positioning and address new segments less addressable by VSAT solutions, such as smaller classes of ships, aircraft, not to mention potential upsides related to connected cars and IoT.

The global IoT market, including terrestrial IoT, should experience exponential growth in the coming years; MSS operators are reinforcing their positions in the segment, with the number of M2M/IoT terminals reaching over 20% growth in just the first half of 2017. Moreover, about ten constellation projects targeting IoT are currently under consideration by start-ups, intending to benefit from the momentum in the sector.