Those successes over a three period period seemed to indicate that the barrier was coming down on a more regular occasion. But history still proves that breaking 4-minutes in the mile is still an exclusionary cause for high school boys, and few possess the ability to even try.

No high school boy broke the barrier in 2018, even though Brentwood High School graduate Brodey Hasty certainly came really, really close. The Tennessee native was just .06 seconds shy from accomplishing the feat for the fourth straight year.

And this track and field season brings a little more uncertainty.

No high school boy returns this indoor season with an effort from 2018 even remotely close to that mark. And when looking ahead to the outdoor season, just one boy was within five seconds of 4-minutes in 2018.

So this all begs the question: What will it take? What, exactly, does it take to break 4?

For one, it certainly takes speed.

When Alan Webb became the first athlete since the 1960s to break 4-minutes over the indoor season, he was capable of running sub-1:49 in the 800.

But Webb also was inserted into a professional field that could push him. In the top four times ever recorded over the indoor season, all four boys were racing against professionals.

Webb would first break the barrier in 2001 at the New Balance Games with a time of 3:59.86. Fifteen years later, Hunter would do the same, setting the indoor national record with a time of 3:57.81.

But as Webb proved later in the 2001 season with his 1:47.74 800m, his speed made a huge difference. Hunter had the same wheels. He eventually ran 1:48.64 in the 800m in the spring of 2016.

event

athlete

class

mile time

800

1K

MIllrose Games

Drew Hunter

2016

3:57.81

NA

NA

NB Games

Alan Webb

2001

3:59.86

NA

NA

Millrose Games

Brodey Hasty

2018

4:00.05

1:54.30

2:27.25

NB Games

David Principe

2017

4:00.97

NA

2:27.86

- - -

Hasty and Principe, however, did not have that same pick-up.

Both athletes failed to break 1:52 for 800m over the outdoor season. Hasty would go on to earn a personal best of 1:52.98 at Brooks PR that June, while Principe would log a best of 1:53.75 in high school.

More athletes have broken 4-minutes over the outdoor season, though. And as times indicate, there is a heavy correlation with 800m and mile time.

event

athlete

class

time

800m

Pre Classic

Alan Webb

2001

3:53.43

1:47.74

Adidas Grand Prix

Lukas Verzbicas

2011

3:59.71

NA

Pre Classic

Drew Hunter

2016

3:58.86

1:48.64

Fes. of Miles

Reed Brown

2017

3:59.30

1:51.01

Fes. of Miles

Grant Fisher

2015

3:59.38

NA

Or. Twilight

Matthew Maton

2015

3:59.38

1:51.81

Nike Twilight

Michael Slagowski

2016

3:59.53

1:48.36

- - -

As you can see, every single athlete who has broken four minutes in the mile in high school has run faster than 1:52 in the 800m.

While Maton and Brown utilized their aerobic engine to get them to sub-4, Slagowski had more raw speed -- which made up for a lack of endurance.

Brown went on to the University of Oregon in 2018 and broke four minutes twice over the indoor season, lowering his personal best to 3:57.23. His personal best of 3:39.56 in the 1500m for Oregon also equates to 3:57.06 in the mile.

This brings us to the current crop of athletes.

2019 Indoor Candidates

athlete

class

time

800m

1K

Sam Affolder

2019

4:10.97

NA

2:29.48

Ryan Oosting

2019

4:11.78

NA

NA

Nick Foster

2019

4:14.36c

1:56.01

NA

Matthew Payamps

2019

4:15.90

NA

2:29.61

- - -

Of last year's junior class, Loudoun Valley's Affolder would be the most inclined to go after the mark in 2019 -- he's the top returner in the 1500m, 1600m and mile. He also could become the second athlete from Loudoun Valley to accomplish the feat, which would be a first.

But to do so, Affolder will have to improve his speed. Last outdoor season, Virginia's two-time cross country champion produced an open 800m best of 1:54.13.

I've included Payamps as a flier, mostly because he ran 4:08.32 for the full mile outdoors and split 1:52.51 for the open 800m in 2018. While he's just the eighth fastest indoor returner in the mile, he jumped ahead of his peers after the spring season.

Each athlete both recorded 1K efforts of 2:29, which equates out to a 4-minutes flat, however, speed will always make the difference in the final 609 meters of the full mile.

Foster is the top returning miler from the outdoor season, though his indoor time is converted from 1600m. And then there's Oosting, who should have the fitness required but does he have the speed? If wants to go after the mark he'll have to race less.

Last year, the Massachusetts native raced eight times at the distance indoors. Oosting does, however, have the fastest returning 3K from last year with his 8:29.43 from New Balance Nationals Indoor. He went 8:28.22 at the same distance outdoors. He also split 1:54.32 in the open 800m in May.

2019 Outdoor Candidates

athlete

class

mile time

800m

Nick Foster

2019

4:05.50

1:53.38

Dan Maton

2019

4:08.13

1:50.79

Matthew Payamps

2019

4:08.32

1:52.51

Drew Bosley

2019

4:08.82

NA

Sean Dolan

2019

4:08.86

1:50.74

Cole Hocker

2019

4:09.48c

1:55.15

Easton Allred

2020

4:09.49

NA

Jake Renfree

2019

4:09.55c

1:53.19

- - -

In my mind, there should be two athletes primed for attempts at sub-4 in 2019 and potentially one or two more wildcards.

Based on history and potential, Camas (WA) High School senior Dan Maton seems like the best bet to be the fastest miler in 2019 and could grab an invitation to the Prefontaine Classic.

His brother, Matthew, accomplished the feat in 2015, and Dan is coming off a year where he almost broke 1:50 in the 800m at the USA Junior Championships. He doesn't have the engine like his brother -- Matthew went 14:45.00 for 5K in his senior year in cross country while Dan's best this fall was 15:40 -- but like Slagowski before him, perhaps Maton can overcome it with raw power.

Before Slagowski broke 4-minutes in the mile twice as a senior in 2015, he ran 4:08.28 in his junior season at Brooks PR.

We also have to consider the speed of Nick Foster.

The Ann Arbor Pioneer senior and Michigan senior had the fastest junior mile of 2018 and has the potential to cut down his 800m from a year ago. Foster may lack Maton's out right speed, but his aerobic threshold is higher -- he recored a best of 15:03.10 for 5K from his senior season in cross country.

Beyond those two athletes, Dolan enters with a lot of potential, while Hocker could be a surprise pick considering his outstanding fall.

If nothing else, the sub-4 watch this track and field season will be interesting, and it will take shape soon enough.