Potential third-party candidates face uphill battle to win, but they could be game-changers

Ron Paul, Michael Bloomberg and Donald Trump are all possibilities for those looking for a third-party candidate in 2012. But polls show they'd have a tough time gaining support. (AP Photos)

If you’re so sick of the current GOP field you’re asking Santa for a third-party candidate this Christmas, don’t get your hopes up–the possibility of such a candidate succeeding in the general election seems remote at this point.

The three candidates who seem to be the most likely third-party candidates at this point–Ron Paul, Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg–would have an uphill battle if they were to decide to run as third-party candidates, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll. Though the three are well-known and each has toyed with the possibility of running, the poll reveals that only Bloomberg has a positive favorability rating among Americans overall.

Trump seems to elicit the strongest emotions from Americans, as he has the highest percentage of people viewing him both favorably and unfavorably, 40 and 48 percent, respectively. But that’s the widest negative favorable-unfavorable gap of all the candidates. And he’s the best-known of all three–only 12 percent of Americans said they had no opinion on the business mogul and host of popular reality show The Apprentice–meaning Trump has less wiggle room to convince people he’s not a bad guy.

However, Republicans overwhelmingly view Trump positively, with 53 percent saying they think of him favorably and only 36 percent viewing him unfavorably. Independents are split, though leaning negative, as 41 percent view Trump favorably and 46 percent view him unfavorably. .

Paul is also viewed more negatively by Americans overall, with 32 percent viewing him favorably and 35 percent viewing him unfavorably. He does better, however, among Republicans, 43 percent of whom view him favorably compared to 35 percent viewing him unfavorably.

Independents, interestingly enough, are essentially split on the Texas congressman–31 percent think of him positively, with 30 percent viewing him negatively. And despite Paul’s frequent appearances at debates and in the news due to his run for president, one-third of Americans still have no opinion about him.

But a third-party run by Paul could badly damage Mitt Romney’s general election chances. The ABC/Post poll found Romney tied with President Obama in a two-way race but trailing by 10 percentage points in a three-way contest featuring Paul.

Likewise, Trump’s strong approval rating among Republicans indicates that support he garnered would come heavily from the GOP nominee.

Bloomberg has more potential to take support from both major parties. He is the only possible third-party candidate who is viewed more positively than negatively. Thirty percent of Americans polled view him favorably, with 26 percent viewing him negatively. But Republicans are split on the New York City mayor, with 28 percent viewing him favorably and 26 percent viewing him negatively.

Among Independents, though, Bloomberg has the most positive favorable-unfavorable ratio of all the possible candidates, with 30 percent viewing him favorably and 23 percent viewing him unfavorably.

Although it’s clear that all three would have some difficulty launching a third-party campaign, a large majority of Americans seem to be looking for an alternative. Sixty-one percent of respondents have a favorable opinion of a third-party candidate running for president, with only a third of Americans declining the option.