Monday, December 29, 2008

December 25th, 2008 - birth anniversary of Nargis Anwar, my beloved mother. A tribute to her & my beloved father, Anwar-ud-Din, who left us forever on December 21, 2008. Sunset at Fire Island, Smith Point Park, Long Island, New York, one of his favorite places to visit in 1996.

100 seconds for a lifetime of giving more than 100% of their lives to giving us incredible lives of love. Ami, Abu - as the sunset on your time on earth - you are now free as two birds - seen flying in unison in front of the sun before disappearing from sight, forever.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

There is a lot of discussion going on about the possibility of India attacking Pakistan over the Mumbai events. Even in the best of times two countries considering war as an option is usually a lose lose lose situation for them and the world.

For them to be two nuclear armed countries simply means an even bigger disaster for the whole world. For India to be a predominantly Hindu country, with Hindu extremists tried to come into power, and for Pakistan to be a dominantly Muslim country, with Muslim fanatics trying to take over power, the plot thickens. The possibility of a mushroom cloud rising over many cities in South Asia becomes even greater.

India was attacked, possibly by people from Pakistan. Pakistan denies it, but may also be in denial in itself. Kashmir is the most likely root cause. Should India attack Pakistan over the Mumbai events? Let's view the video.

A Twitter contact of mine, Christine Lu, who happens to be Chinese and affiliated with a Chinese business related organization, had posted a comment on Seesmic arguing against USA/Canada rejecting Chinese made goods.

This is a serious economic and geo-poliical issue. Here is my opinion on that:

Friday, December 12, 2008

The last two weeks have been a blur of activity all over the world. Ranging from the good to the bad and the ugly, everyday we learn not only how flat our world is but how interconnected everything is.

The attacks that took place in the Indian city of Mumbai were just the kind of excitement that we did not need this holiday season. I can understand Kashmiri freedom fighters and their supporters wanting to lash out at India, and its economic centre, saw the Indian occupation of Kashmir and the treatment of the Kashmiri people. I can even understand their frustration that61 years have gone by but the rest of the world does not seem to care about United Nations resolutions calling for the Kashmiri people's right to self-determination.

In the meantime more and more American, and European, investment continues to pour into India. From Bombay to Bangalore one can see India becoming a magnet for international investment as well as outsourcing of jobs from countries like America. Even the Indian film industry, which used to be entertaining, to say the least, has now become a force and is beginning to make its mark felt even in Hollywood and the West.

Perhaps it is for this reason that the Mumbai attackers decided to target tourists and visiting businessmen, whose Dollars and Euros are strengthening India and enabling its to continue its policy of occupation and terrorizing of the Kashmiri people.

However, there is no excuse for the indiscriminate murder of innocent Indian citizens going about their daily lives. I cannot understand how this attack on Mumbai in any way made the Kashmiri issue more important to the rest of the world. Or, how it made the world in any way more sympathetic to Kashmir.

Even if calling attention to the Kashmir issue was their primary goal, one would at least expect some communication from the masterminds or strategic leaders of this kind of attack. One would request them to at least explain their version of a rationale for such mayhem. Even the PLO, when it was successfully hijacking airliners in the 1970s, was communicating to the rest of the world that it was trying to call attention to the plight of the Palestinian people. Of course, as we can see that did not lead to the independence of the Palestinian people from Zionist Israel.

At the same time, carrying out an attack like this when it would obviously lead to severe Indian reaction against Pakistan shows that these terrorist killers were no friends of Pakistan. It would be foolish of us to argue that they did not come from, or have some support in, Pakistan - as my fellow Pakistanis tend to do. At the same time the jingoistic and "let's use this as an excuse to bash Pakistan" tone and tenor of India's words on the issue is not the smartest response either.

One hopes that saner heads prevail on both sides. Not that I am in any way advocating war, but India would be well advised to remember that Pakistan is its nuclear armed, capable and militarily strong neighbor.

Pakistan may not be able to "defeat" India in a conventional war, but any war that takes place because of the circumstances can easily spiral out of control and turn into a nuclear conflagration. In that, neither India nor Pakistan would win. They, and the whole world, would be defeated.

It is for this reason that it is essential for Pakistan and the Kashmiri people to immediately start using more effective tools of communications to call world attention to these issues. We are living in a connected age. Almost everybody has access to the global network, either through computers connected to the Internet or even through SMS on their cell phone.

Services like Twitter, which enable millions of people to have a real time conversation with short messages of 140 characters (called Tweets), are where the current and future battles for hearts and minds of the global audience take place.

In places like these Muslims in general, and Pakistanis in particular, are few and far between. People from, and supporters of, India and Israel are always active in general. They become even more hyperactive when Muslims, or Pakistanis, or Palestinians, carry out these types of murderous attacks we saw in Mumbai, which backfired on all of us.

If you have not already done so, and have Internet connectivity, I invite you to join up Twitter. Follow the conversation and respond to it. The easiest way to start is to go to http://twitter.com/imrananwar ,sign up and use the Follow button. This way you can see what I am saying in response to the attacks on Pakistan.

Then simply by clicking Reply you can join the conversation. In this case not only would your response come tome, but it would go on the "global public timeline" which means it is there for the whole world to see.

As you say interesting and useful things, or have interesting points and counterpoints, more and more people will begin to follow you. That enables you to build relationships as well as open doors of communication with people from all over the world.

Remember, just because you are not in the same room as the person you are responding to, don't lose your sense of decorum no matter how angry they try to make you.

Being abusive, narrow minded, or just plain offensive only ensures that your words reflect poorly on the very country or cause that you are trying to support. Or it will mean more and more people blocking your messages AND opposing whatever you were supporting!

Remember, a conversation is most effective when you are open minded and balanced. Even people with opposing, or somewhat negative opinions of your country or cause, can become more aware of your point of view, or even become supporters. Be opinionated, but be courteous. Be firm, but be open-minded.

That is the most effective way to communicate your point of view, as well as helping educate the rest of the world on what the root cause of the Pakistan and India problem is. In one word, it's Kashmir.

The only way to win that battle of hearts and minds in a global, interconnected, world is through using tweets instead of bullets to win your war. Get online, follow and tweet me!

Saturday, November 22, 2008

I know it's extremely aggravating when people expect you to speak Spanish instead of English in Miami. And, the looney drivers in Miami remind me of driving in Pakistan. But, when you see the colors of the sky and water there - it's easy to see one of the many reasons I love Miami.

Friday, November 21, 2008

In the previous column we were analyzing how the Republican Party and defeated politicians play the blame the media game. Even though President-elect Barack Obama has won the election, there are many months before he can even more into the White House. He is busy putting together his team and trying to arrange for a smooth transition from the current administration.

We are looking forward to seeing capable, strong, respected, intelligent and competent people to get lots of Cabinet and administrative positions. In other words, we are expecting from the Obama administration what we did not have in the Bush administration!

In the meantime, lame duck president George W. Bush cannot seem to wipe the glee of his face in that his disastrous presidency is coming to an end. He still does not seem to understand the serious damage he has done to America, Americans, the world and America's standing in the world. He is just acting as if a juvenile, who had been given the responsibility for managing a dorm for a few weeks, is glad that he can go back to partying and having a good time. Texas ranch, here I come!

His team of incompetent, and sometimes corrupt, officials continues to wreak havoc on the nation and the global economy. Secretary Hank Paulson in particular has been spectacular in his inability, apparent poor judgment and lack of good decision-making. It seems that every time he opens his mouth the stock market will drop 200-500 points. Call that the financial equivalent of Hurricane Katrina, another Bush disaster legacy of rewarding failure and incompetence.

As I have written before, the world faces grave financial crises, which need both liquidity and a return of credit and consumer confidence. Paulson does not seem to know how to provide either one. First he disagreed with the good decisions that were being made by other central bankers around the world. Then he agreed with them and said he would follow them.

Then he announced that the government would use the bailout money from taxpayers to buy bad assets, or bad loans, from banks and financial institutions. In effect, he proposed rewarding poorly managed companies run by greedy and crooked executives, while saddling the taxpayer and the American economy with trillions of dollars in liabilities.

When the market had finally adjusted to this, dumb as it was, idea - he roiled the markets again. He did this, in effect, by saying, oops, that's not what he was planning to do. He then proposed finding some new way to give the money not to the financial institutions that are melting, and could sink the entire global economy with them, but consumers who have high credit card debt.

As was to be expected, the bank stocks that were starting to stabilize took a massive new beating. The entire stock market dropped precipitously again. Thanks, Hank.

An interesting news item related to this financial crisis is that opinionated, big mouth, gold and daring movie producer Michael Moore (who had done great exposes on Bush, 9/11, the war on terror, the US auto industry, US health-care, etc.) has announced that he will be making another movie.

This time he will follow up to his previous successes with a movie exposing the games and players that made up the current financial mess. Hopefully, he will expose their endgame as being something that America and the world cannot afford to play.

News reports still continue to comment on how major American corporations, financial institutions, and insurance companies that have their hands stretched out asking for taxpayer bailout still continue to shamelessly spend money on unbelievable expenses.

AIG is the worst culprit of them all. There have been documented cases of more than one expensive, unnecessary and in your face lavish events that this company has continued to hold for its executives.

This company is getting some of the biggest handouts in corporate, financial and global history, already exceeding the $100 billion, yet its executives are dining out on $400 steakhouse dinners, staying in two-storey resort bungalows - while having massage and spa treatment instead of attending the so-called necessary conference costing nearly half a million Dollars! I wonder where I can apply for one of these jobs. I love steak, my shoulders are tight and I sure could use some R&R at taxpayer expense.

I have to give credit to my fellow media professional, the respected TV anchor, Lou Dobbs of CNN for not letting go of the story - despite the bold-faced explanations of the AIG CEO on the lame Larry King Show.

There is one story, however, that I do not think anyone is investigating at least now. It would be so great if CNN, the New York Times or the Washington Post - all the great American institutions - would spend some resources on investigating, in-depth, the major stock trades that took place during the last few months.

I do not have any proof to level a formal complaint or accusation, yet. But, I have a hunch that all was not as it appeared.

I hope that future historians, investigators, and congressional committees will investigate what I am going to say in more depth. I wonder, no, I ask: Was the stock market being manipulated by M/s Paulson, Bush officials and their cronies? What do you think?

While it seems hard to imagine, I do not put it past the friends of evil genius Karl Rove to let the United States economy fall into a new great depression.

Students of the Great Depression and its causes, including Secretary Paulson, and Karl Rove, know that it can take four years or more for an economy to come back from a giant depression.

That means, conceivably it is possible to sabotage an Obama presidency even before he takes office! They could do this while setting the stage for the economy to still be in bad shape when the Republicans make the next bid for the White House in 2012.

I hope I am wrong, but American politicians have been guilty of far worse crimes, against their own people.

Imran Anwar is a New York and Miami based Pakistani-American entrepreneur, Internet pioneer, inventor, writer and TV personality. He can be reached through his web site http://imran.com and imran@imran.com. You can follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/imrananwar

Friday, November 14, 2008

The historic election of president-elect Barack Obama is complete. Jockeying has begun for positions in the new Cabinet and the new administration - which will take oath of office in early 2009. Democrats who have worked hard for Obama's success are lining up.

On the Republican side, the blame game continues on who was responsible for the disastrous showing of the Republican Party in the recent elections. Not only did a relative newcomer to politics, but an African-American on top of that, manage to beat a far more established political rival John McCain, Democrats also increased their significant majority in Congress and now even the Senate. It’s going to be a difficult 2-4 years for the Republicans.

While the Republicans are still licking their wounds, they are still not an agreement on whether the defeated vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin was an asset or a serious liability.

There are some who admit that Sarah Palin was a terrible selection. Even the unofficial mouthpiece of the Republican Party, and the ultra-right-wing as well as neo-con movements of the United States, Fox News Channel, had one of its reporters rattling off a litany of Sarah Palin weaknesses.

Of course this was done after the election. This included apparently amazing, and downright scary, facts like the candidate for vice president of the United States, one heartbeat away from the presidency if the physically challenged John McCain was to die while in office, could not name the three countries that make up North America! Canada is to the North of us Americans, and Mexico is to the South. She did not know that! She did not know that Africa is a continent and not a country. The list goes on.

What is even more shocking than such an apparent moron being a major political party's candidate is that some people still do not seem to have learned a lesson from this defeat. It appears that some part of the Republican Party still does not get it. There are people who are already positioning Palin for a presidential run in 2012. They seem to think that extreme right-wing ultraconservative bible thumping hockey mom small town Christian mentality is what America needs. Heaven forbid!

These people are quite clear in their thinking that she was a great candidate who was simply defeated because the media did not like her. Blaming the media is nothing new, as we know in all countries. Most parties and candidates do it, especially if they are falling behind or defeated.

However, even as a writer who worked for a newspaper (Jang Group & MAG Weekly) in Pakistan that was constantly attacked by the left and right asking for greater coverage than the other side, I find the Republican Party's blaming the media laughable.

I am all for being fair and balanced, for real, unlike just as a dumb slogan, and giving equal coverage to all parties - especially at the start of the race.

The media's job is not to be a mouthpiece of either party, nor should it try to influence people in one way or the other, when the choice is between two equally strong candidates.

But, it is ridiculous to assume that the media should be giving equal coverage, or writing equal number of "positive stories" if one candidate is running an awesome campaign and the other just cannot seem to get his foot out of his mouth.

Another amazing thing that is happening now, post-election, is that the same Sarah Palin who was unavailable to do any interviews, or take any press conferences except with carefully chosen friendly journalists, is now all over the media.

One of my favourite TV anchors is Campbell Brown over at CNN. She is bright, beautiful and bold. That is why it is great to see her run a show called "No Bias No Bull". In a recent episode I loved it when she declared that during the elections they could not get Sarah Palin to speak to them and now, post-election, Palin does not ever seem to "shut up!"

Suddenly the same Republican Party that was attacking the media elite, while not making its candidates available to speak to them, is actively courting the media.

John McCain made his first TV appearance after losing the election on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno". To his credit McCain has been a gentleman in defeat. He has been gracious and even funny. He told Jay Leno that after losing the election he has been sleeping like a baby. He sleeps for two hours, wakes up crying and goes back to sleep.

In the meantime Sarah Palin, who was calling Barack Obama a socialist, is now gushing with praise and kind words for him and his family. The same man that she was trying to label a terrorist-friend is one she is suggesting should be selecting opponent republicans to be members of his Cabinet. Nice try.

Only time will tell if the Republican Party will continue down this destructive path of courting the ultra-right-wing, fundamentalist Christian, extreme elements of American society.

I, for one, am hoping that the American public and the American media will continue to keep an eye on what and how the Democrats do in the next two years. If it looks like they are foolishly squandering the historic opportunity that American voters gave them, it would be an opportunity for the Republican Party to find its footing, and its place in history again. But that cannot be done just by playing the blame-the-media game.

As a member of the media, I also feel it is our responsibility, to now report accurately, fairly and with an eye to the future. America, and the world, stand together on the brink of disaster but with great and bright future days still within sight. It is up to us to work together to make that brighter future a reality.

[Continued...]---Imran Anwar is a New York and Miami based Pakistani-American entrepreneur, Internet pioneer, inventor, writer and TV personality. He can be reached through his web site http://imran.com and imran@imran.com . You can follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/imrananwar

Imran Anwar at 10:54pm November 12A full moon here was making stars less visible but a short while ago I was enjoying looking at Orion's Belt. Good thing stars are not like men, or that waist would be expanding. Wait a second, the universe is expanding. Does that mean Orion's belt and waist are also expanding. OK, I give up. Back to seeing stars. LOL

Imran Anwar at 9:38pm November 12I just saw in my Inbox but didn't read yet an article (summary appeared to be suggesting he ran a No Drama campaign but to get people to do their best he may want to mix things up.)

Jose Outtellect Guzman III at 9:40pm November 12Obama will do whatever illuminati tells him to.

Steven Alexander at 9:43pm November 12"illuminati"?

Jose Outtellect Guzman III at 9:48pm November 12Illuminati it's in the dictionary. Small group of wealthy individuals. Who own all the land, oil, gold, knowledge, information, corporations, media,resources, etc. Your rockefellers, buffets, murdochs,gates, etc.

Imran Anwar at 9:49pm November 12I think supporters of current "administration" and Bush and Palin-2012 want dark forces (like Cheney), voices in the President's head (preferably Jesus now starts calling next Republican instead of Bush), and obliterati (bomb anyone to divert attention from domestic issues).

Imran Anwar at 11:09pm November 12Not until they get rid of the cancer of unions (which enable people barely qualified to flip burgers to make $100K) they can't be saved and I don't want my tax money going to bail them out.

Imran Anwar at 8:22pm November 12Thanks, Ziana. It's CLEAR to me that you can SEE THROUGH my humor. LOL. Of course, I enjoy your POURING on the compliments into my JUG sized ears - hopefully without my getting GLASSY-EYED. I know you are TWISTED. But, are you twisted enough to want to be the PRETZEL that a certain President choked on? LOL.

Ziana Bethune at 8:55pm November 12ROFLMAO! Uh...maybe I'm twisted enough to be the President that the pretzel fell prey to. lol. :) If you're nuts enough to prey to pretzels, that is. *Groan.*

Seema Kalia at 10:17pm November 12GAWD. This is so transparent.

Imran Anwar at 10:48pm November 12I can see clearly now.

---

From Frank:re: Redistribution of wealth in simple terms

Give it some SERIOUS thought! Not far off.

Today on my way to lunch I passed a homeless guy witha sign that read 'Vote Obama, I need the money.' I laughed.

Once in the restaurant my server had on a 'Obama 08' tie,

again I laughed as he had given away his politicalpreference--just imagine the coincidence.

When the bill came I decided not to tip the server andexplained to him that I was exploring the Obama redistribution

of wealth concept. He stood there in disbelief while I told him

that I was going to redistribute his tip to someone whoI deemed more in need--the homeless guy outside. Theserver angrily stormed from my sight.

I went outside, gave the homeless guy $10 and told him tothank the server inside as I've decided he could use themoney more. The homeless guy was grateful.

At the end of my rather unscientific redistribution experiment I realized the homeless guy was grateful for the money he did not

earn, but the waiter was pretty angry that I gave away the money

he did earn even though the actual recipient deserved money more.

I guess redistribution of wealth is an easier thing to swallow in concept than in practical application.

OR IS IT...REDISTRIBUTION OF SOMEONE ELSE'SWEALTH IS A GREAT IDEA.....

Imran AnwarNovember 4 at 1:14amFrank, I am no Democrat, supported McCain in 2000 and proudly voted Obama in 2008. I am hoping my fellow Americans will vote to make history tomorrow. McCain's already history unless my countrymen are racist at heart and give false info to pollsters.

Imran

Frank ProfetaNovember 4 at 10:29amImranThere is much more at stake than the Presidency, don't forget about the supreme court, appx 2-3 justices. I just woke up, I'm our in Phoenix for another week. Weather is great out here.FrankSent via Facebook Mobile

Imran AnwarNovember 5 at 1:50amI'm glad the rednecks racists bigots Bush lovers were defeated by great Americans. Looking forward to people staying engaged in politics and elections n throwing Dems out if they do bad things.

Bush now officially the used toilet paper of American history.Sent via Facebook Mobile

Frank ProfetaNovember 5 at 8:55amImranI wouldn't call McCain supporters, "rednecks racists bigots Bush lovers," we are all great Americans and participated in a very intense campaign for many months. This kind of talk is what divides America, not unites America. You might want to reconsider your comments.

Imran AnwarNovember 5 at 12:35pmHahaha, Frank. Really - now as losers even the bigots and racists and other regular Republicans like you yourself are all great Americans but your beloved Sarah Palin said Obama supporters were not real Americans or America loving. LOL

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

---"It will be interesting to see if the moderating qualities of the office temper Obama’s views or empower his ego. http://formykountry.com.via Twitter - 12:12am - 3 Comments

---And I commented following that.

Imran Anwar at 12:28am November 11

Ego is a good thing, if connected to a hunger to leave a positive mark. It is a terrible thing when it is an "I am right and the decider in chief though I don't know what to do, let me ask Cheney who to bomb next."

---

John followed up with:

John Adams at 1:00am November 11

What I have seen so far I fear is the ego of Obama will just be to big for him to really do what is best for America.

I hear General Franks on Fox news state that Obama will change his views on Iran after he is briefed. When asked are you sure he responded he will or their will be an uprising of the people.

---to which I had to respond.

Dear John,

Thanks, I needed a good laugh.

Good source, Fox News, to get the views of the general who "managed" the hunt for Bin Laden in 2001 (still going great I hear), the "mission accomplished" in Iraq in 2003 (not so sure we found WMDs he said he was sure we would find). He's the same guy who endorsed George W. Bush (true War Zero) in 2004 after retiring and becoming a security consultant - gee I wonder where he makes his money.

Glad you rely on reliable and obviously objective sources to worry about Obama's ego. Last time I checked, it was not Obama who claimed to talk to God and be doing Jesus' work on the planet. LOL.

BTW, "according to Time magazine, on November 21, 2003, Tommy Franks said that in the event of another terrorist attack, American Constitutional liberties might be discarded by popular demand in favor of a military state."

Let's talk in 2 years and see how Obama is doing and how Franks' consulting gigs are going selling fear and 'security' solutions.

He's just another Giuliani but in a military cut suit, cashing in his accidental place in history with businesses cashing in on the fear they monger while sucking up to George W. Bush, easily the worst President in this country in 100 years.

If the Dems screw up, we throw them out in 2 years, and Obama can go in four years if he is not a good President. But, even with both hands tied behind his back, duct tape over his mouth, three injections of morphine, codeine and heroin in him, Obama would be smarter and more lucid that George Bush on his best day.

And, to the good old General, I say, "Tommy boy, Frankly, in General, you don't know a damn thing about what you're talking about now."

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

There are dark clouds on the horizon, as the damp chill of an early November rain looms over Washington DC. It is unlikely that anyone awake at this dawn hour will see even a single ray of light of sunshine. Yet, Washington, DC, as well as all the United States of America are bathed in a warm glow and bright light. It is the sunshine of a new day, a new dawn, a new era, and a new chapter in the history of a great nation renewed.

To paraphrase a recent advertisement, published by CNN in The New York Times and other reputed newspapers, the United States, as well as the rest of the world, were caught in a magical moment on the night of November 4, 2008, as the US elections came to a close.

The past was leaving, but still threatened to continue into our future. The future beckoned, the hope of a new day, but the dawn had not yet arrived and could still elude us. For a brief moment in time, you, I, the United States, as well as the whole world, were caught in a moment of curiosity, wonder, concern as well as sheer, innocent, daring hope.

Yesterday the nation stood at a crossroads, the brink of expanding disaster or a new beginning. As the election results came in, it became obvious that Hope had won the day. The past was going to be sent far into the past. In that brief period of time, between the end of polling in the United States, Senator McCain conceding defeat and President-elect Barack Hussein Obama giving his victory speech, many amazing things happened which many of us had not expected to see for a long time.

Americans themselves appeared to close the door on the jingoistic, brutal and bullying faux but failing empire that George W. Bush and his henchmen had tried to build over the last eight years. Americans of all colors, ages, races, religions, ethnicities and backgrounds came out in larger numbers to vote than at any time in the recent history. They also found that they had made a dream come true surprisingly quicker than they themselves had expected.

Dr. Martin Luther King, the black slain civil rights leader, was killed for his preaching equality for whites and blacks. His amazing "I Have A Dream" speech is known to all Americans, and I urge readers of this column to read, or even better, to hear it for themselves. (It is easily available on the Internet). Many Americans can even quote words from that speech. But few had believed it possible that they would see parts of Dr. King's dream come true in such a real and shining manner.

Americans found their country once again beginning to be the bright beacon of light, hope, equality, justice, greatness and ideals that the rest of the world looks up to. Above all, Americans themselves woke up to realize that from being a good, yet imperfect, country overnight they had matured into a renewed nation, achieving greatness again, surprising themselves and the world in unison.

Let there be no delusions. We have not suddenly achieved some racial-nirvana, some miracle of overnight solutions to eons old human emotions. The results from various states, and parts of the country, including so-called redneck areas, show that despite the massive failure of George W. Bush, and his friends, voting for a black man was still too much for the Bush-supporting people to do.

No society in the world, at least in our lifetimes, can achieve the Utopian ideals of having no racism at all. However, with this vote Americans resoundingly proved that if there is any country in the world that can come close to living up to its own ideals, and the ideals of most human beings, it is the great nation of United States of America.

The country that had a history of slavery, abuse and even murder of black people today elected its president who is not only black, but is the son of a Kenyan immigrant, raised by a single mother, with an extended family of Africans, Christians and Muslims. And they did not install this man by some technical election, or by some narrow margin. They did so in such a resounding manner that there was no doubt left in anyone's mind. It was clear. America had come back to its rightful place on the world stage - as a nation to be respected, admired, looked up to and - perhaps one day soon - loved again.

The irony is that this next to impossible election of Barack Obama was made possible by the disaster that was George W. Bush. It was hastened by the brink of disaster faced by the United States as well as rest of the world. Yet, the challenges that Barack Obama faces on taking the oath of office will make his getting elected seem like a walk in the park.

One of the interesting elements of United States elections is the significant time period between the results of elections and the new government taking over. In most circumstances it is a good thing – as it allows for a smoother transition from one administration to the next. However, in today's serious geo-political and socio-economic meltdown situations, Barack Obama faces a new dilemma.

On the one hand he cannot be overly aggressive in pushing for his own policies while lame-duck George W. Bush is still in office. On the other hand, he cannot simply wait for 2 months for the situation to get worse, or the wrong policies or "solutions" from being applied or tested - by an administration already having seen itself rejected to the dustbin of history.

The major challenge that President-elect Barack Obama is sure to face is the issue of unrealistic expectations.

Being able to inspire people to believe that solutions are possible, being able to suggest that change is coming and getting people out to vote are far easier than solving the actual problems in some miraculously short timeframe. On top of that, as can be seen in any country where the party comes back into power after a long time, it's supporters (jialas), power players and constituents expect to be rewarded for their support. The thing that can save Obama from this problem is the huge turnout in the elections and the very broad range of people who swept him into power. That makes it easier for him to resist the pressure or blackmail tactics of any particular constituent or support group.

An additional challenge that he and his Administration will face is that there are no easy solutions to the problems that are faced by the United States economy, as well as the global economy. Nor is it very easy to get out of the war in Iraq - if that is what people expect to be a short and easy fix to all problems.

Another thing to keep in mind is that one of Obama's strengths is his ability to think coolly and rationally about issues, analyze the situation, make a decision and communicate his plan. The problem is that it can also lead to analysis paralysis, especially for a relatively young, inexperienced, new leader.

It is possible for Obama to also try to please as many people as he can and end up displeasing a lot more. Even worse, being someone who appears to want to be liked by everybody, it is possible that he may want to tiptoe around some of the tough decisions that need to be made. That, in my humble opinion, would be a disaster.

The biggest strength, the biggest advantage, the biggest opportunity that Obama can leverage is the huge mandate he was given in this landslide victory. It is for this reason that his first 100 days will be far more important in real terms than in the usual symbolic terms that they are looked at for new presidents.

If he's smart, and a man of action, he will find a strategic way to have Congress, with its Democrat majority further strengthened in this election, influence and force George W. Bush's outgoing administration to embark on the path that Obama would like to follow. This would enable him to get the ball rolling even before his inauguration, avoid the impression of imposing himself before he assumes office and also save him from any blame that can come about from George Bush and his team still screwing things up.

Another advantage I see is that this clear mandate, given to a visionary leader with the ability to inspire his nation, is just the right shot in the arm needed by the US consumer, business and stock markets.

As I have written in these pages before, there are serious threats to the United States and global economies, but the biggest threat is a crisis of confidence. Obama's ascension to power is sure to help revive that confidence.

As I write these lines at 5 AM on November 5 in Washington DC, I am confident that, barring any external economic events, an economic resurgence, including a stock market rebound, shall start soon. More credit will start becoming available, thawing the economic freeze that had left Main Street shuddering and Wall Street with pneumonia. I even hope that a recovery and expansion may be on the horizon as happened when the last great American President Bill Clinton came into office replacing another weak economy under another weak Bush.

So, economic recovery will be of paramount importance to Americans and the whole world. The weak economy is what helped Obama get elected, but the biggest challenges before, during and even after an economic recovery will be foreign affairs and undoing the damage done by the Bush Administration.

My advice to President Barack Obama would be to therefore embark on aggressive efforts to resolve the Middle East and Palestinian, as well as the Kashmir issues. I would also encourage him to immediately start dialogue with Iran and other countries that George W. Bush was busy burning un-built bridges with.

But Obama has to do so in a friendly yet firm manner. It is time for America to assume its place as leader of the free world, willing, able and ready to use its power and influence to do good and effect real positive change around the world and achieving things that no past American President had the willingness or courage to do. That is the audacity of my hope for President Barack Obama.

---

Imran Anwar is a New York and Miami based Pakistani-American entrepreneur, Internet pioneer, inventor, writer and TV personality. He can be reached through his web site http://imran.com and imran@imran.com

Monday, November 03, 2008

The United States won victory in World War II, but 50 years later it was the vanquished Germany and Japan that won the economic war. The United States won the Cold War, but even fewer years later it is Communist China, and a Resurgent Russia, that are growing economies and global political players again.

The world today stands on the brink of an economic disaster of historic and global proportions. The United States today stands on the precipice, also on the brink of an economic meltdown but also with a historic opportunity. On November 4 Americans will elect their new president for the next four years. At no time in modern history has this election been of greater importance to the American people, as well as citizens of the world.

The clearly disastrous and mismanaged administration of George W. Bush will also be a factor. Under this most unpopular president in modern history, and the most reviled American leader in the world, America went from being the sole, respected, superpower in a unipolar world to one of the most despised, jingoistic, aggressive, yet weakened and threatened countries in the world.

The choice today that the American voters will make is actually one of historic importance and significance for everybody. The choice American voters will make shall determine whether America continues to pursue the same failed economic, foreign and domestic policies of George W. Bush or embark on a new road to peace and prosperity worldwide.

Americans have to choose between two candidates for our next President.

The Republican Party candidate is Senator John McCain, a man in his 70s, with health issues and a mixed bag of experience, respect, scandal and lack of personal ethics in his past. The Democratic Party candidate, Barack Hussein Obama, is the son of the Kenyan Muslim immigrant, a black male, born and raised in poor circumstances. He also has possibly the worst name any candidate could have to run for election in the United States in a post 9/11 America (with its fear and dislike for Muslims with names like Saddam Hussein and Osama)!

In general it has been seen that any election held during the time of economic crisis, especially one as serious as the current one, will most likely lead to the defeat of the incumbent party. Add to that the unpopularity of the current president and you would almost think the Democrats have it made. However, the unique, and interesting, twist in this election was the breakdown of several historic barriers.

Democrats set the agenda, and the new standard, when their final two candidates were Senator Hillary Clinton, a woman, and Senator Barack Obama, a black man. In effect, the Democrats knew they were going to make history through the first ever nomination of either a woman or a black man to be a major party candidate for president.

The entire Republican field, meanwhile, as usual, was comprised of the same good old white men's club.

After a bitter, and tough, primary election fight Obama won over Hillary Clinton. A lot of Democrats were hoping for the "dream ticket", in which Obama and Hillary Clinton would be the presidential and vice presidential candidates respectively. However, the bad blood between the two of them was too much to overcome until recently. Obama made a wise choice anyway - by selecting the experienced and well-liked Senator Joseph Biden to be his running mate as vice president.

On the Republican side, after many ups and downs Senator John McCain prevailed over many smarter and more desirable candidates. He waited to announce his running mate until after Senator Obama had announced his VP. One of the things John McCain likes to claim, and at one time had been, was a maverick. However, in this particular case he chose Sarah Palin, the poorly vetted, little-known governor of a sparsely populated state of Alaska, to be his VP. (She was recently found guilty of ethics violations, her underage daughter is pregnant out of wedlock, her husband belonged to an anti-America organization, but no one seemed to notice!).

In the end, America and American voters have to choose between two men and their running mates.

John McCain was relying on his non-stop support for the Iraq war, and his having been a "war hero", as a prisoner of war in the Vietnam War, as his strengths as a candidate. Running as a Republican candidate, which also espouses Conservative values, he of course would not like people to remember his adulterous background, his dumping his first wife as she was being disfigured by cancer, going on to marry a rich woman who makes her money from a booze distribution business. He wants people to ignore his getting involved with the well-known crook Charles Keating, and helping protect Keating while his fraud brought about a massive financial crisis 20 years ago.

Very few people also seem to remember that McCain was Fourth from the bottom of his class of almost 900 students. He was shot down as an air force pilot not because he was being a hero but because he was just not a good pilot. His poor piloting destroyed at least 4 planes that he was flying! Of course, Americans should honor him for having being a prisoner of war, and a decorated war hero. But, by that token, people should also have elected Senator John Kerry as president in 2004. We know that did not happen.

But the biggest thing, the alignment of external factors beyond John McCain's control, which may doom his run for the White House ended up being something he had the least knowledge, confidence, and ideas on - the economy.

He was literally giving speeches declaring that the fundamentals of the American economy were sound and everything was fine - on the same day that Lehman Brothers, the large respected bank, collapsed and the economic meltdown began. Even during the three presidential debates with Senator Obama, Senator McCain has had no particular ideas, or proposals, other than a mantra of anti-democratic party rhetoric and trying to label his opponent through words of fear and innuendo.

While all this was happening John McCain was also losing one of his core constituencies, independent and fiscally conservative Democratic leaning voters. He lost them by chasing after and begging for the support of the very same people he had called "agents of intolerance" in his previous attempts at the White House. He went out of his way to cater to the needs, and demands, of the neo-Conservative, fundamentalist, right wing Christian and evangelical groups.

The more radically right he went, the shriller his attacks on Senator Obama became. The final nail in that coffin of the so-called original John McCain came with his selection of Sarah Palin to be his running mate. Initially seen as a breath of fresh air, the young, attractive, confident, well-spoken former beauty queen shook things up - especially in the core base of the Republican Party.

However, in just a few weeks, thanks to mismanagement, to saying the most ridiculous and foolish things during TV interviews, unsuccessfully trying to label her opponents as socialists or communists, she has ensured that she is now showing up in surveys as costing John McCain several percentage points of support among likely voters.

Senator Obama, on the other hand, despite belonging to the usually very disorganized Democratic Party, has run one of the most successful, and best managed campaigns of modern elections. He and his supporters have rewritten the book on fundraising, raising awareness, getting voters involved, staying on message, and exciting the electorate.

Despite coming from humble beginnings, Obama attended the prestigious Columbia and Harvard universities. He has been an excellent orator and came as a breath of fresh air to the American voter. Despite his having much lesser experience in politics, he literally burst on the scene in the 2004 elections, as a speaker at the Democratic National Convention. Most people expected him to one day be a national level candidate, perhaps 12-16 years. However, the historic opportunity came sooner than expected. First he got elected to the Senate and within two years he is within touching distance from the White House.

He has been able to focus on the economy and also on his best-known policy stand, which was his firm opposition to the war in Iraq. With his charisma, his speeches, his ideas, he was able to inspire great supporters and major respected adviser to join him. He was able to excite the electorate like few candidates have since Bill Clinton. He was able to raise money directly from the people, enabling him and his party to spread their message of hope, change, and a new beginning. This was like magic for the masses who were sick of George W. Bush and his policies. His campaign made McCain's supporting Bush 90% of the time a major issue. In essence, they have made McCain's candidacy a continuation of the Bush campaign. They have made the election a referendum on Bush – a man so unpopular even his own party candidates for any state or national seat have not invited him to even be in the same city as them!

Will this be a referendum on Bush? Will it be a victory of hope over status quo? Will it be the dawn of a new era or the same old same old?

While we wait for voting to begin, and the results to come in, we have nothing but polls, surveys and interviews with people who have gone for early voting. (Several American states allow people to vote early). By almost all polls it almost appears that the die has been cast. A huge, historic, unprecedented level of early voters has turned out. The vast majority of them are said to be voting for Obama for President. However, as they say, it ain't done till it's done.

There are many things that can go wrong during this election.

Polls can be wrong, especially in this case. The reason is that many people may claim that they will vote for the black candidate, but being racist at heart, will actually vote for the white candidate on election day. Another factor can be overconfidence by Obama supporters, who may decide not to go to vote because they will think they have already won the election.

Voting machine errors, especially in the new kinds of electronic machines being used in some states, also have people concerned. Fraud is a real possibility, as has been seen with so-called mis-calibrated voting machines. Even in areas not using electronic voting machines, who can forget the disaster that was Florida voting George W. Bush into power in 2000, because of poorly punched paper ballots. The fear of "hanging chads" still hangs over democratic heads.

In essence, America faces a choice. On the one hand it faces economic ruin and a disastrous war in Iraq continuing for years to come and more of the same by John McCain. On the other hand it faces overcoming its biggest challenges, including a history of slavery and racism. Most analysts and polls suggest that America is ready to make a historic decision. Most expect Obama to become the first black president of the United States and lead this country to a great destiny.

Brink Of Disaster or Verge Of Destiny? Which choice will the American voters make? It will become known to us in 24 hours. Stay tuned.

--

Imran Anwar is a New York and Miami based Pakistani-American entrepreneur, Internet pioneer, investor, writer and TV personality. He can be reached through his web site http://imran.com and imran@imran.com

Saturday, November 01, 2008

I have always found it interesting the way politics and show business have mixed in recent years not just in Pakistan but also in America.

In the good old days, for example, when John F. Kennedy was President of the United States, the tendency was for politicians to have secret affairs with movie stars. Over the years the relationship between movie stars, TV actors, show business personalities and political leaders became more open.

It started with politicians getting married to show business personalities and eventually to movie actors entering politics and running for office.

One would have assumed that developing or so-called Third World countries like Pakistan were more likely to have movie stars, cashing in on their popularity and name recognition, become successful politicians. One would also have assumed that a supposedly more educated country, or society, like the United States would be less likely to allow such cashing in of fame and celebrity, especially at the national leadership level.

So it is interesting and ironic to see that in Pakistan, in general, movie stars, or even renowned celebrities (who also happened to be great people), like cricketer Imran Khan, were not truly able to make a successful transition to politics at the highest level and at the highest office.

Sure, respected and popular people like the late actor Muhammad Ali, did run for seats in parliament. Cricketer Sarfraz Nawaz, with his relationship to a movie star, also made a play for a seat in an Assembly seat.

Maybe there are a few other examples. But I do not recall anyone who was able to make a serious play for the highest office in the land, whether Prime Minister or President of Pakistan.

In the United States, on the other hand, the same forces of celebrity, fame, name and face recognition, as well as hero worship were at work - but surprisingly at a much higher level.

One does not have to see too far back into recent history to see how quickly American politics moved from having a president having an affair with a movie star (like JFK and Marilyn Monroe) to actually electing Ronald Reagan as president of the most powerful nation on earth.

On top of that, the same Ronald Reagan, that many people claimed to despise during his presidency, considering him nothing more than a talking head, all recognize that he ended up being one of the most powerful American presidents ever.

To this day almost every single American candidate for the presidency, especially from the Conservative or Republican side, has always gone above and beyond to prove how much like Ronald Reagan he or she is; even if they themselves had nothing in common with Ronald Reagan, or even having been closer to a movie studio than a visit to Universal Studios theme parks!

This hero worship was also apparent when Arnold Schwarzenegger, also known as The Terminator, was elected "governator" of California. The reason this is important to note is that California is more than just one of 50 states in the United States. Even as a stand-alone economy it would count as the 12th largest country/economy in the world. And Schwarzenegger is still running that state. So, quite clearly it is more than just a temporary bout of celebrity worship that puts and keeps people like him in office in America.

Of course, there are other cases of movie stars dabbling in a political activity, but more as activists than as candidates. Some of them do this even at great personal cost.

After all it is the public that gives them their wealth, fame and career, and the public can take it away. That is why I have such immense respect for showbiz personalities like George Clooney, Sean Penn, and others, like Oliver Stone. They have boldly spoken out against George W. Bush and his idiotic policies which have turned a global superpower like America almost into a Third World country, on the brink of economic ruin.

Who can forget the lovely, and talented, Dixie Chicks, a wonderful trio of singers from Texas, who apologized to the world for the idiotic Bush being from their state and country, USA. They lost Millions of Dollars in record sales for their bold action from the rednecks that used to buy their CDs.

One also has to acknowledge some of these movie stars and even their producers who not only speak their opinions boldly, they even put their money where their mouth is. Oliver Stone's latest movie, "W" is a clear attack on Bush and exposing his inner circle of crooks and cronies. I plan to watch that movie after the elections.

Most recent examples of such personal and business risk-taking in movies include the movie Syriana, in which George Clooney exposed the evil so-called foreign policy that the oil companies and Washington use to control regimes in the Middle East.

I am surprised that more Americans, more Pakistanis and more Muslims/Arabs have not seen that movie. If you haven't already done so, I strongly urge you to rent and view it on DVD. Your viewing it will not help the producer make his money back, but it will give you a great appreciation for such creative people who risked their personal, financial and career assets on the line for their beliefs and to speak the truth.

Coming back to the topic of politicians and their connection to movie stars or showbiz, by the time you read these lines a new president will already have been elected in the United States.

I wish I could predict right now the words I will be saying on November 4 while covering the US presidential elections for Geo TV and MAG. But one of the interesting things to see will be what role, if any, movie stars' supporting presidential candidates will have had.

John McCain appears to be on the losing track. But, I do not trust the American masses to look beyond Barack Obama's race and skin color, as well as Muslim sounding name, to elect him president.

To get more of that so-called redneck vote out in his own support, the Republican's latest rally brought out Arnold Schwarzenegger to root for John McCain the white candidate.

On the other hand Barack Obama is no slouch in the celebrity endorsement department either. Not only does he have the support of movie stars like Mark Wahlberg, several of the above-mentioned celebrities, Oprah Winfrey, as well as having his own star power - he also has the charisma of Bill Clinton now apparently on his side. That does not even count the increasing number of renowned Republicans like non-movie star but multi-star General Colin Powell endorsing Obama.

And, in another illustration of how things can go full circle, Bill Clinton's "boring" vice president, and democratic party candidate in 2000, Al Gore, has gone from being almost the President of the United States to almost being a "movie star" himself - with his very popular documentary on global warming. As you can imagine, Al Gore is also rooting for Barack Obama.

We will wait and see which candidate's ideas, personal magnetism, or movie star support wins this election. So we have to ask the "VOTER, VOTER, IN THE HALL; WHO'S THE BRIGHTEST STAR OF ALL?"

We'll find out on November 4, but stay tuned and follow my coverage on GEO TV November 3-5, 2008, live from Washington, DC!

--Imran Anwar is a New York and Miami based Pakistani-American entrepreneur, Internet pioneer, inventor, writer and TV personality. He can be reached through his web site http://imran.com and imran@imran.com

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

In the previous column we discussed why the current economic crisis appears far worse than it actually is. Yes, grave dangers exist if the world’s economies are mismanaged. But, so far, it appears that all major governments understand the global implications and are working together to stave off global ruin.

It is for this reason that I argue this may be the best time in the world to start investing, to take advantage of the huge opportunities and bargains that surround us, before everyone else does. This is especially true of younger generations, young families, and dynamic people who can afford to take a long term view more than someone close to retirement or already retired (unless they have significant amounts available to invest).

I believe the recession, though painful, will be short lived and will end soon into the Presidency of the new American President. This is especially true if history is any indicator. A Bush in the White House always leads this country into war and economic ruin, and his exit always leads to a historic economic recovery and the opportunity to create great wealth. I can hardly wait for Inauguration Day, 2009!

I also believe we will not have a global Great Depression version 2 between now and then.

There are several reasons for this. One is that most of the world governments and nations had learned several lessons from that historic crash of 1929 - which is referred to as The Great Depression. (I am not sure what was so "great" about it). In that particular crash, the then American administration had made many bad moves. That included not responding, not responding in time, then responding in a parochial, inward looking, protectionist way and doing too little too late.

You are not hearing me say that George W. Bush or his team of incompetent henchmen have done anything right. However, because we live in the Internet age, and most of world economies are so tightly intertwined, in general most of the developed world's governments are working in unison to avoid a global meltdown, even while they recognize a recession is already underway.

How to minimize its damage, and to prevent it from turning into a domino effect - that brings the planet to its knees - is what they are fighting for. Bush and his team, and even Presidential candidate Senator John McCain, showed their cluelessness on the economy. At 9 AM one day McCain was saying the economy was strong. Two hours later he was saying the country (America) was in a grave crisis, as if a sudden earthquake had just taken place.

Then Bush’s Treasury Secretary Paulson said there were specific steps that would be just plain wrong – like the government taking equity stakes in American banks in exchange for large sums of capital. But, when the British, Europeans and Japanese governments did exactly that and saved their economies, literally a day later he was doing the same thing. So much for having any competent person in the White House team! (Maybe Bush can now say, "You're doing a heckuva job Pauly"?)

But, regardless of how incompetent these people are, fortunately they are not the only ones who have a stake in saving the American economy from imploding.

There are countries with huge amounts of United States dollars stashed away in their banks. This includes countries like China. Even the Chinese Communist government, regardless of how disdainfully it may think of the United States, is smart enough to know that the greatest source of its wealth in recent years has been from manufacturing cheap goods that the American market just cannot get enough of buying.

Also, as few people realize, an American meltdown, of its economy or its currency, will also mean financial ruin for China in several ways. China’s growing working middle class depends on feeding the American consumption beast for it to survive and grow itself.

On top of that, over the least few years, despite participating in a world economy, and benefiting from capitalism and open markets, China has always manipulated its own currency to ensure its goods do not become too expensive to export. As a result, for several years, America has had a huge trade deficit with China, leading, effectively, to America owing China a lot of money.

Now its policy of protecting its own currency is coming back to bite China. That is because China is possibly the biggest non-American holder of huge reserves of Dollars. A crash of the Dollar can effectively wipe out China’s current economic wealth.

America, just like Pakistan right now, is hardly in a position to turn down economic support from any quarter. Sure, it'll be a shameful and sad day for the United States to go begging to China. The one remaining superpower in both military and economic terms, before George W. Bush came into office, would actually now be dependent on a communist country like China to help save it's capitalist society!

China, previously the source of cheap socks and itty-bitty cheap plastic toys could be and, I would say also for its own self-interest, has to be America’s economic savior.I also see this as a huge opportunity for Middle Eastern countries, also slush in Dollars and Petro-Dollars, to offer their help but leverage it to increase opportunities for their businesses. But, sadly, I have not seen much strategic exploitation of that of any significance. Sure, we have the occasional deal worth Billions (e.g. when a financially suffering chip-maker AMD has sold off a majority stake to ATIC of Abu Dhabi, an investment arm wholly-owned by the government of Abu Dhabi.

But, I do not see a concerted, strategic and financial effort on the part of Middle-Eastern, or Muslim, investors and entrepreneurs to exploit opportunities as I see Indian and Israeli companies doing. I can imagine us crying in 20 years about how not only do the Jews control Hollywood and the media but then how Indians and Israelis control Silicon Valley.

Yes, I do see that Arabs have started buying up real estate, the one business they understand well here in America (being among the biggest buyers of casinos and other entertainment properties also). But, can they leverage this to help establish a foothold for Arabs and Muslims in things like Venture Capital and other next-generation financial industries? Sadly, it does not appear that is even a goal for them. It seems real estate is already, correctly, being targeted for massive investments but not much else.

It is for this reason that I am quite confident that huge opportunities exist for Pakistani, Middle-Eastern and Muslim investors to benefit, not just from real estate, but also from many other opportunities to buy financial, corporate and technology company assets at bargain prices.

Even though, like everyone else, I took significant hits in the stock market during the last several months, I have actually increased my holdings, especially in stocks of Citibank, as well as Apple. I have also bought stocks of others, like Amazon, Pepsi-Cola, etc. that also got hammered a few days ago. But, the greatest upside I still see in the stock market is in companies like Apple, as well as other battered financial stocks.

Last but not least expensive desirable real estate is going to become even more expensive and more desirable as the market turns around, which is sure to do in the coming days. This will be true especially in the United States when my fellow Americans are smart enough to change the direction this country is headed in. It will happen even sooner if they elect a candidate who is not simply going to continue George W. Bush's policies of economic disaster. We will find out on November 4.

But, don’t lose sight of the huge opportunity for real estate that exists in other markets too.

Major American institutions have created funds of several Billion Dollars to start buying real estate in countries including India. Thanks to the self-destructive tendencies of my fellow Pakistanis, people hardly consider Pakistan as a safe haven for their money (much less their bodies!), but as real estate investment takes off, there will also be a trickle-down or trickle-sideways (osmosis?) effect on Pakistani real estate prices.

I have been making my best efforts to interest American investors in also including Pakistan in the list of places that they invest in – but so far it has been a losing battle. I am hopeful in the new Administration in America (and some improvement in Pakistan's war on terrorists) that the USA will feel a greater need to invest in Pakistan. But, similar huge opportunities exist for Pakistanis of means to invest in real estate in the United States and I am seeing that a lot more from clients that I advise on doing business in the USA.

All in all, I am not just hopeful, but certain, that the current recession will be a short one, though not without short-term pain. I am positive that savvy investors are going to start putting their money, and their instincts, to work before everyone else jumps back on the bandwagon. I am working to do that, and hope you will too!

Friday, October 17, 2008

As I sit writing these lines in New York, on this October day, fall weather is upon us. The view outside my window is a curious mixture of an early (native) "Indian Summer", as well as autumn. Much of the shrubbery in my backyard nature preserve has already turned red, with some shades of green and orange adding a magical glow in the reflected light of the setting sun. A few trees have changed color to shades of golden and red, though most have simply taken the dreary shortcut to demise and desolation - from bright, shiny, green to dull, dry and dead - their leaves falling off at the slightest breeze. A chill is in the air at night, and careless people, or countries, can catch cold. At this stage in history, as America is sneezing, the rest of the world is catching flu this time. Pakistan is facing an economic pneumonia on top of that. Once again "mareez ko dawa kay saath saath dua kee bhee zaroorat hai". ("The patient needs medicine alongside lots of prayers"). In this case, whether Pakistanis get "ilm" (knowledge) from China or not, we are desperately seeking economic medicine (read Cash) from China. Ironically, in this Pakistan is not alone. Facing the winter of (voter) discontent, and an economy shedding more jobs than a tree in New England, America is facing its own economic autumn, and looking for a Chinese ((Spring) Roll?) dough! {Sorry for the triple bad pun!}.

It is interesting how the weather in the Northeast (of America) right now is symbolic of the state of the United States of America - as a nation, as a global superpower, and as a nation whose economy is still facing serious meltdown. Of course, the United States is not alone, as the rest of the world is also in the midst of the potential total economic meltdown.

On the one hand, the roller coaster moves of the New York Stock Exchange in particular, and others around the world in general, could easily give a run for the money to any adventure ride that Disney or Six Flags can offer. On the other hand, just like the falling leaves and desolation of winter are always followed by the spring of new opportunities, this is absolutely the most incredible buying opportunity for anyone with a bit of money to invest.

Sure, I have no guarantee that the market has hit bottom yet. But there is no way that I can believe that we are not already touching the lower extremes of the fluctuations of 2008. I am no economic adviser or investment guru, but I strongly feel that a strong recovery will start in 2009.

Thus, a historic buying opportunity actually exists in almost every segment of the market, especially in America. For example, if I had $1 million to spare, I would most definitely start buying up stocks in financial institutions like Citibank, Bank of America and others. America and other world governments just cannot afford to let such big banks go under. The US government is already an equity investor in them, and will continue to be as needed. The opportunity for others to step in is huge.

I also consider technology stocks to be the forerunners of the next economic upturn in America. This includes lots of new companies that are being created by entrepreneurs as well as existing innovative companies.

So, I would invest a large sum of money in the stocks of Apple, which appears to be firing on all cylinders. This includes a huge sales opportunity in the Christmas buying season for its latest and greatest models of the iPod music player, which commands almost 75% of the MP3 music player market here. Then they have the hottest gadget of the year, the iPhone3G (which has already sold Ten Million units). Add to that the rapidly growing market share of the Apple laptop and desktop computers, which was raising revenues, profits, market share and respect for the company - even before the launch of the sexy and truly exciting new line of laptops, this week.

But, these are not the only companies or stocks that are desirable. I dare say almost anything (which has sound fundamentals, and a strong market presence) that is off more than 35 to 40% off its highs from last year is a huge buying opportunity.

If I had $1-5 million to invest, or if I were an institutional investor (or a large organization with a large bank account earning next to nothing in the bank), I would be targeting the huge opportunity that now exists in real estate.

Yes, there had been a bubble. Yes, we may have not seen the bottom. Yes, things will go down a bit at least until through part of next year. But, very few of us can be sure we can perfectly time the market and only buy at the lowest possible point.

Even with some downside potential, some significant short term volatility, there are significant long term opportunities to buy excellent pieces of property now, while they are depressed, and sell them at a profit when the market turns around in the next year and more.

Of course, I would not encourage anybody to invest in real estate indiscriminately or without significant research. I would not suggest betting your last Dollar or Rupee on it, if you don’t have financial cushion for one year.

My opinion, and it's only an opinion, not financial advice, is that there are special or particular kinds of real estate that are always going to be the first ones to recover. What I am talking about going after initially are the types of land and properties always in high demand, regardless of the kind of market we are in.

In particular, having spent a significant part of my life living on or facing the water, I have always been partial to waterfront property, especially if it happens to be bay front or oceanfront. In that sense, possibly the state of Florida offers the best opportunity to invest in waterfront or oceanfront real estate, including condos, that can be purchased at great bargains. Other places to look include Las Vegas and even California, where the next technology boom will again take place in 2 years.

The reason I would personally not jump into the condo market right now is because there is still a possible great risk of a builder or a building going into foreclosure, because many of its homeowners go into foreclosure.

On the other hand houses, standalone, or single-family homes as they are called, especially if they are on the water, or facing the ocean or come with any kind of lifestyle element are great investment opportunities. They are very desirable to those with disposable income, or those who will have disposable income more than others or before the rest of the market, so they would be great investments when the market is down about one third from its peak.

The way the market and many current investors, including small investors, in the stock market are responding is as if the Great Depression of 1929 is upon us again. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

Yes, there is a risk that the United States, and the rest of the world, could go into a painful recession, which could last a long time. But, even at its worst, it's not going to be anything like the Great Depression of 1929.

This is not some Version 2.0 of that great depression, when it took the stock market in America nearly 25 years to recover to pre-crash levels because no one knew what to do.

We are living in a very interdependent and very communicative world. We are now citizens of the World far more than any time in history. The speed of communications and the rapid response of citizens to their governments’ actions and inactions ensure that even incompetent leaders in any capital, Washington or Islamabad, Delhi or London, are quickly questioned and challenged.

That makes it far more likely that by design or by accident, coordinated problem solving approaches come from around the globe, all meant to save the world from falling into total financial ruin. That has started happening. Even Communist countries are following Capitalist policies, while hubs of Capitalism like America are literally “nationalizing” banks (actually a "recapitalizing" in exchange for equity stakes, with a potential upside), and injecting liquidity into the markets at a shocking but needed rate.

Just like the end of George H. W. Bush’s lame Presidency and Bill Clinton’s ascendance to power saw a bad recession turn into the biggest economic opportunity for everyone, nearly 16 years ago, I foresee the end of the George W. Bush’s absolutely disastrous and embarrassing Presidency as the start of a massive recovery in 2009.

Are you going to be ready to take advantage of it when it happens soon? Let me know.

To Be Continued

Imran Anwar is a New York and Miami based Pakistani-American entrepreneur, Internet pioneer, investor, writer and TV personality. He is not a financial adviser and doesn't even play one on TV. He can be reached through his web site http://imran.com and imran@imran.com

Monday, October 06, 2008

I think it was not too long ago when I had written about the way the American Democratic Party could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, much like Pakistan could find a way to destroy any opportunity to promote itself.

Quite frankly, I was quite aghast at the prospect of the Pakistan People’s Party, cashing in on the death of late Benazir Bhutto, electing Asif Ali Zardari as President of Pakistan. I am not even sure it could be called electing him, as it was more like confirming instructions given to them by the party, and not their own minds and consciences. (Talk about figments of my imagination).

It was my stubborn belief in thinking “I’d rather have a crooked elected leader than a crooked incompetent dictator,” that I continued to cling to, and, sad to say, still do. But, if events of the last few weeks, and most recent days are any indication, Pakistan has provided, and continues to provide, all kinds of reasons to the world to show how bad Democracy can be, in the hands of the wrong people.

I was in Islamabad for the oath-taking of Mr. Zardari. I will not even bore readers with a rehash of the weirdness of the whole event. It was painful to see a person like him take “oath” of office of President, and that too from a “Chief Justice” that by his own previous policies was considered to be not even legal.

Then to have the repulsive, even despicable, behavior of the PPP workers, who were chanting Bhutto and PPP slogans, during the national anthem on that surreal yet historic moment. I know they have no sense, but have they no shame either, is what I thought?

Then to see more PPP jialas and jialis actually phalang-ing the gates to the supposedly most-secure civilian location in the country was too funny even for words.

I recall some American journalists asking me how could it be possible that some totally unidentified, thuggish people claiming to be PPP workers actually climb over the walls to get into an event unhindered, where almost the entire civilian and military top brass were present? All I could do was give a “What can I tell you,” shrug to hide my embarrassment and amazement. I bet AlQaeda was watching that video clip. (The same pathetic and shameless “Party above Pakistan” mentality was displayed by Zardari supporters, in New York, this week).

Anyway, as if that was not enough, for the Government of Pakistan to actually give a seat and joint press conference opportunity to a puppet from next door, Hamid Karzai, who barely rules over his own palace’s dining room, was just one more moment of amazement.

I did tell my friends and listeners that it was not by accident, but by design, that Zardari had Karzai there. The whole idea was to have a distraction, and to find an additional tool, on top of Mr. Zardari’s obvious deflection of EVERY single important question asked of him.

I was still scratching my head wondering if this whole charade of “elections” was worth the country suffering or Benazir being murdered in very mysterious circumstances, as I flew back to New York. (Don’t even get me started on telling you the stories of having flown PIA, the national flag carrier -, OK, OK, if you insist, maybe in a subsequent article in these pages.)

Being an eternal optimist, I decided to ignore all the above observations and give this new government in my original homeland, Pakistan, a chance, to prove me wrong in thinking I was wrong about democracy in Pakistan.

Yes, yes, I know I am using a double negative. But, if I can’t openly disagree with myself, who else can I disagree with! (LOL)

During this time, as you have read my previous columns, my fellow American politicians were not really doing much to make me feel more confident in the kind of democracy that is practiced in my American homeland.

In America I was crying for 8 years at history’s biggest moron, George W. Bush, as President. Pakistan decided to go one up, and elect a President with admitted mental problems.

It was not enough to have to see Bush stealing one election, incompetently watching 9/11 happen, letting Bin Laden continue to roam the wild lands, start a wrong war in Iraq, meltdown the American economy, help oil buddies and Hailburton make Bilion$ in profit with VP Dick Cheney pulling the strings – while melting down America’s global goodwill.

I then had to see Pakistanis elect a man called Mr. Ten Percent to President, riding on the dupatta­ -tails of his murdered wife, having his shameless supporters dishonor the national anthem at nothing less than the Presidential oath taking.

How much worse could it get, I wondered. After all, Mr. Bush is only in office a few more months. Zardari sahib and his jialas will finally settle down from the indigestion of getting more than they can handle, somewhat like a starving man coming to a dinner buffet at The Village restaurant in Lahore and eating until finally full, or sick.

No, my fellow Americans, especially the Republicans, had to shove the mindless, inane, hypocritical, almost comical, highly-ridiculed Sarah Palin as the VP candidate under 700-year old John McCain. You already read my opinion on her. By the way, I read somewhere that McCain was bottom of his class in his student days (something like #894 out of 899 students) making him even more scarily similar to George Bush.

So, I am thinking, OK, this is not so bad. My Pakistani President only embarrassed me by being elected, actually taking oath, breaking signed agreements he has, going back on his word, mismanaging the relationship with China, and others, and so on. Bush and then McCain-Palin, as candidates, means the Republicans have embarrassed me as an American even more.

Phew, at least things can’t get worse or more embarrassing for Pakistan, I assumed.

I said to myself, “I mean, what else could go wrong?”

Part 2: Welcome To The World Of Barafee’s Law ™

By Imran Anwar

In the previous column, I had been discussing about how my two homelands, America and Pakistan compete to amaze and embarrass me with their politicians. First we had the moronic George W. Bush for President here, TWICE.

Then Pakistanis elected a man called Mr. Ten Percent and having medical records showing mental problems. (Well, at least, as they say, "paagal hai, baywaqoof naheen", {'He's crazy, but he ain't stupid!'}).

Then the Republicans among my fellow Americans selected John McCain (aged 72 or something) and Sarah Palin (with an IQ of about 72, which is a step up from Bush) as their nominees for elections in 2008. And, I said to myself, “That’s got to be it. How much worse could it get?!”

Darn! Spoke too soon. As if to prove Murphy’s Law applies to politicians and Pakistan’s reputation Mr. Zardari actually showed up in New York.

This led to my version of Murphy’s Law, which I will call Barafee’s Law. This is based on a new recipe for the sweetmeat (Barfee) and ice (Baraf).

My newly announced Barafee’s Law basically states that “If there is any opportunity to embarrass and harm Pakistan’s interests and reputation, our “sweet” politicians (or worse, Presidents), trying to be “cool” will use it to the fullest.”

I had always squirmed seeing how Dictator Musharaff used to “visually undress” well known celebrities, like Angelina Jolie, if they showed up in Islamabad.Mr. Zardari did one better. He made President Dictator Musharaff look like a refined gentleman.

He came to New York, found himself in the same room as the ridiculed and reviled Sarah Palin, and started hitting on her (flirting, pathetically trying to seduce), again, and again, and again.

That is not done, even in a socially liberated (read, very azaad khayal) country like America, where 50% marriages end in divorce, where secret affairs are also common, where dating is a social norm, where the American “conservative” VP candidate Sarah Palin’s own underage daughter is pregnant out of wedlock. There is one thing no one does, at least publicly – and that is to hit on (to try to charm or seduce) a married woman.

Yes, it happens, but it is highly frowned upon.

Doing so publicly is considered nothing less than despicable, and the lowest of lows. It is not to be done, period. It is especially not to be done in public and, especially, especially, especially not as a head of State of an ISLAMIC Republic.

Yes, it is not done especially as a “grieving widower” whose own wife was murdered supposedly by terrorists (or some other conspiracy that can well be imagined after seeing such behavior).

It seems like Mr. Zardari would get along just fine with the notorious American ex-movie-actor football-star thug O. J. Simpson, who got away with killing his wife and who still claims to be “searching for her real killers”!

But, I digress.

I am not perfect. Far from it.

Yes, I am “Happily Single” (see http://happilysingle.net ) and will never claim to be “mukkamal kanwara” like a well known Playboy cricketer of the same name as me did many years ago.I am not a paragon of virtue. I am not without sin. I am most definitely no moral authority. So, believe me, I am not thumping some faux morality Bible on Asif Zardari’s head (skull!).

I am human, and I have said words without thinking in meetings or conferences. I am certain I must have made more than my share of inappropriate remarks (Sorry anyone who was hurt!!)

But, I am also not the President of my country. And, even after making some accidental, or shamelessly deliberate inappropriate comment, and realizing my mistake, I (and almost no one) has gone on to keep making the same remarks embarrassing the speaker and recipient of the Barafee (being cool and being extra ‘sweet’) gift.

Mr. Zardari left no doubt in anyone’s mind that while he was making speeches about working to avenge his wife’s killing by improving Pakistan and its future, in fact, he is nothing more than an out of control aging desi-Playboy who does not have any sense of decorum.

By making his comments to Sarah Palin, in full view of cameras, political operatives, Pakistan-haters, he showed he was not using his head for thinking but had something else in mind. He embarrassed Pakistan, Pakistanis, and the memory of the late Benazir Bhutto. Maybe he was missing her too much. (I am reminded of a Country Music song from some years ago. It was titled “Honey, I Miss You {But My Aim’s Getting Better!}”).

We had always been taught to “Win Friends And Influence People”, by our thoughts and actions, as I had been reading since I was a pre-teen going to St. Paul’s English High School in Saddar, Karachi.

It appeared Mr. Zardari was hell-bent on publicly making a fool of himself and doing maximum harm to Pakistani interests just to get a japhee (hug) from a married woman, who could one day (Khuda na Khasta) become VP or President of the USA.

I am serious. Sarah Palin’s candidacy is a joke but it can be a bigger joke for Pakistan.

Do a Google search for “Tina Fey As Sarah Palin On Saturday Night Live” or use http://tinyurl.com/IMRAN-MAG-TinaFey-SarahPalin to see how she is perceived. This woman herself was the biggest laughing stock in the world – until Mr. Zardari showed up in town, and in her tow, and apparently under her 'sehr' (magic).

We have a serious national crisis in Pakistan, with terrorists intent on destroying the country (and killing its leaders). Obama and McCain both now consider Pakistan, not Afghanistan, the new front in their war on terror. They have their eyes on Pakistan’s nuclear assets, and terrorism statistics. President Zardari is more interested in Sarah Palin’s vital statistics.

She is highly unpopular even among educated and sensible women who supported Hilary Clinton, and there is a good likelihood that McCain-Palin will be an election disaster. But, by making comments about her popularity, Zardari has interjected himself, in a manner destructive to Pakistan, as officially supporting Republican candidates.

It was a lose-lose proposition, and Mr. Zardari not only took it, he played his cards on the same bad bet over and over. If Obama is elected President, his handlers may think Pakistan supported Republicans just because of the Pakistani President having several repeated moments of “tharak”. If McCain-Palin are elected by some remote chance, they will surely not have a high opinion of Pakistan.

With what face can a Pakistani President panting to hug a married VP candidate go to her boss and demand that the US administration not shoot missiles into Pakistan?

All Palin has to do is flash her eye-lids and maybe we will exchange giving them access to all Pakistan’s tactical assets in exchange for a glimpse of her strategic assets.

Is that what our nation’s reputation in the world has come to? Mr. Zardari wrote the book on it… “How to lose friends and be despised by people.”

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The writer is a New York and Miami based Pakistani-American entrepreneur, Internet pioneer, writer and TV personality. He can be reached through his web site http://imran.com .