The main premise which has changed the S&P’s outlook for
Russian economy was the assumption on the oil price movement, S&P analyst Irina Veliyeva
told RBC, adding that the rating agency forecasts an average
price of $55 a barrel for 2015 and $70 per barrel over the next
three years. The forecasts for GDP growth and other key
indicators have been revised as Russia's economy is dependent on
oil prices, Veliyeva said.

Meanwhile, there has been a general tendency of improving
economic forecasts for the Russian economy. Last week, US bank
JPMorgan forecast Russia’s GDP for 2015 would improve from a 5
percent fall to 4 percent. Economists from Russia and the US
agreed last month that the Russian economy had already recovered
from the worst

Inflation in Russia remains high and hit 16.9 percent annualized
in March and 7.4 percent since the beginning of the year,
according to Rosstat data released Monday.

The head of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said
Tuesday she expected inflation to go down to nine percent by next
March.

“We think the scenario of reaching a mid-term target to reach
four percent inflation by 2017 is realistic,” she said.

The Russian ruble, which
is a key indicator for the country’s economy, has been doing
better than Brent crude. Oil has played a much less prominent
role in the ruble’s exchangeratein the first three months of
2015.

The US-based S&P’s forecasts are close to those from Russian
authorities. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development expects
a 2.3 percent GDP growth in 2016 and 2.5 percent growth in
2017/2018.The Central Bank’s forecasts are less optimistic – a
3.5–4 percent decline for 2015 and positive 1–1.6 percent in
2016. Nevertheless, the CBR expects growth of 5.5–6.3 percent in
2017.

Voiding the “Big Three”

Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) is going to move
away from international ratings to Russian
ones.

"We are thinking about gradually moving away from
international ratings and developing our own ratings industry
with Russian agencies," Central Bank Governor Elvira
Nabiullina said at the Russian Bank Association conference on
Tuesday. She also added that the situation in Russia's banking
sector was stable. The CBR expects a rapid decline in inflation
reaching 9 percent in March 2016, Nabiullina said.

Standard and Poor’s cut Russia’s sovereign rating to BB+ in
January, leaving it below investment grade for the first time in
a decade. In February, it downgradedthe
long-term foreign currency ratings of Russian Railways, Gazprom,
VTB and other big Russian companies and banks to a level right
under the non-investment line.