Monday, March 14, 2011

Looking Ahead To 2011 - Derek Jeter

Coming off one of the best seasons of his career and in the final year of his contract, Derek Jeter had the worst season of his career, dropping from a line of .334/.406/.465 in 2009 to a line of .270/.340/.370. It was obviously not realistic to expect a repeat of 2009 in 2010, as you can see by looking at Jeter’s projections heading into 2010.

Jeter’s average projection called for a line of .304/.372/.426 over 629 PA, which would have been worth around 34 runs above a replacement level SS. Instead he ended up being worth about fourteen runs worse than that. It’s easy to forget that Jeter actually had a very good April, hitting .330/.354/.521. From May 1 through September 13 he hit a miserable .247/.323/.338 before finishing the year on a relative hot streak of .347/.435/.389 (fueled by a BABIP of .439).

Jeter set a major league record by hitting 1200 ground balls in 2010. Actually, that may be a slight exaggeration, but he did hit 65.7% of his balls on the ground, which is 5.7% higher than he had done in any point in his career (data only available from 2002 on). Ground balls aren’t necessarily a horrible thing, since they’re slightly more likely to be hits than fly balls, but in Jeter’s case it just didn’t work out, whether it was due to him hitting weaker grounders or just having an exceedingly bad string of luck.

If you compare his batted ball data for 2009 and 2010, you can see a pretty clear difference.

Year

GB

FB

LD

IFFB

2009

309

123

110

1

2010

364

101

89

2

As a rough rule of thumb, here’s the average outcome for each type of batted ball from 2000-2010.

Type

out%

1b%

2b%

3b%

hr%

GB

73.1%

21.8%

1.8%

0.1%

0.0%

FB

72.5%

5.8%

8.3%

1.2%

11.5%

LD

26.9%

51.6%

17.6%

1.5%

2.3%

IFFB

97.0%

1.7%

5.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Batted ball data isn’t perfect, because it’s based on subjective assignment by people, so keep that in mind. We also need to be aware that different types of hitters will have different results with their batted balls. A Jorge Posada ground ball is not as likely to be a hit as a Brett Gardner ground ball, a Ramiro Pena fly ball is not as likely to be a hit as an Alex Rodriguez fly ball, etc.,

If we look at Jeter’s actual BABIP compared to an expected BABIP for 2009-2010 using the league average rates for each type of batted ball, here’s what it looks like.

Year

BABIP

xBABIP

2009

.368

.324

2010

.307

.302

This tells me we should expect Jeter to be closer to 2010 than 2009, but I think most of us already knew that.

The raw numbers tell us something, but they’re still kind of limited. Another thing I wondered about was if Jeter’s actual distribution of where he was hitting the ball was meaningfully different.

The biggest takeaway from this chart for me is that Jeter has never done well on balls hit to the infield, at least not since 2007. Of course that’s true of anyone, since it’s just infield singles and ground outs. The primary problem in 2010 was that he had so many more of them, which again is something I think anyone who watched him in 2010 intuitively knew already. Basically, if Jeter’s going to be better in 2011, he probably has to stop hitting so many freaking grounders. We’ll see if the changes that Kevin Long and Jeter have been working on with reducing his stride help with that.

That’s still not granular enough for me, so here’s how Jeter’s balls in play have been fielded by each position over the past four seasons.

Pos

2007

2008

2009

2010

P

5.3%

5.7%

6.3%

6.9%

C

0.5%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

1B

3.8%

3.4%

4.7%

5.2%

2B

11.9%

14.6%

12.3%

15.2%

3B

10.3%

14.4%

10.4%

12.1%

SS

18.5%

16.6%

19.5%

20.7%

LF

11.4%

5.5%

9.4%

6.4%

CF

19.6%

17.6%

17.0%

15.0%

RF

18.7%

22.1%

20.2%

18.1%

Left

21.6%

19.9%

19.8%

18.5%

Middle

55.9%

54.6%

55.3%

58.2%

Right

22.5%

25.4%

24.9%

23.3%

Left is just 3B and LF, middle is C, P, 2B, SS, CF and right is 1B and RF. This table tells me that Jeter was not able to pull the ball as frequently in 2010 as he had in prior seasons, although he wasn’t that far off from what he did in 2007.

Here’s how the projections see Jeter doing in 2011.

Offense

projection

PA

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

BR

BR/650

BRAA

BRAR

BABIP

bill_james

703

641

101

189

31

2

13

68

17

6

62

.295

.357

.410

.342

91

84

7

32

.337

fans

674

618

95

179

27

2

12

72

16

5

56

.290

.358

.398

.340

83

80

3

27

.327

cairo

699

624

99

181

29

2

13

70

15

5

63

.290

.361

.405

.342

88

82

5

30

.322

marcel

641

575

87

163

25

2

12

59

17

5

54

.283

.348

.397

.332

77

78

1

24

.317

oliver

656

587

77

166

24

2

11

65

14

5

56

.283

.349

.387

.329

76

76

-1

22

.319

pecota

710

631

85

177

27

2

12

70

19

6

62

.281

.349

.387

.329

84

76

0

25

.316

zips

648

582

82

163

24

3

12

58

17

5

54

.280

.346

.393

.330

77

77

0

23

.311

average*

671

600

86

170

26

2

12

64

16

5

58

.283

.351

.394

.332

80

78

1

24

.317

2010

739

663

111

179

30

3

10

67

18

5

63

.270

.340

.370

.319

82

72

-5

20

.307

wOBA:Weighted on-base average (does not include SB/CS)BR:Linear weights batting runsBR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PABRAA: BR above an average player in projected playing time (adjusted for park, but not for position)BRAR: BR above a replacement level player (adjusted for park and position)2010: Un-adjusted 2010 performance
*average does not include bill_james or fans

Kind of grim. The projections do think Jeter will be better in 2011, but only by about 5 runs or so.

CAIRO likes him more than most of the other projections. Here are his percentile forecasts.

cairo %

PA

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

BR

BR/650

BRAA

BRAR

BABIP

80%

734

655

109

197

33

3

16

78

18

6

70

.301

.378

.431

.361

102

90

14

40

.330

65%

713

636

104

188

31

2

14

74

16

6

66

.295

.369

.418

.352

94

86

10

35

.326

Baseline

699

624

99

181

29

2

13

70

15

5

63

.290

.361

.405

.342

88

82

5

30

.322

35%

629

562

82

154

22

1

9

57

11

3

51

.274

.335

.366

.314

67

69

-7

15

.311

20%

559

499

67

129

17

0

6

46

7

1

41

.258

.309

.327

.285

49

57

-17

3

.299

To be honest, until I see something that makes me think differently, I have to assume Jeter’s going to be closer to that 35% forecast, which is around what he did in 2010.

Defense

Jeter won his fifth Gold Glove in 2010, which should tell you all you need to know about his defense. Either that, or it tells you how useless the Gold Glove awards are.

Player

Jeter, Derek

Pos

SS

year

G

Inn

DRS

zRS

uRS

tRS

avg

rARM

2006

150

1292

-18

-5

-7

-5

-9

0

2007

155

1318

-23

-20

-18

-22

-21

0

2008

148

1258

-9

3

0

0

-2

0

2009

150

1260

2

-3

6

4

2

0

2010

151

1285

-13

-18

-7

-12

-12

0

avg

151

1283

-12

-9

-5

-7

-8

0

w_avg

151

1278

-10

-9

-3

-7

-7

0

DRS: Defensive runs saved compared to average using John Dewan’s plus/minus systemzRS: Runs saved compared to average using Chris Dial’s zone rating systemuRS: Runs saved compared to average using UZRtRS: Runs saved compared to average using Total ZonerARM: Runs saved with arm compared to average (OF only)avg: average from 2006-2010w_avg: weighted average from 2006-2010 (5/4/3/2/1 weight)

You need to remember that when you’re looking at these numbers, they are comparing Jeter to his fellow shortstops. He just doesn’t compare well to his peers in any of the defensive metrics. We also need to remember what these numbers are telling us. They’re not saying Jeter misses two or three plays a game. An average of -7 for the season means Jeter’s missing something like one play every four weeks.

Like I’ve said before, when all the metrics basically say the same thing, I am willing to trust them. The thing is, it’s possible Jeter may actually be even worse than these numbers show, as Colin Wyers has done some research that shows a possible range bias by the people who track defense. I have no idea how much worse that might make Jeter, but I’d also assume if he becomes that obviously bad he won’t be playing shortstop full-time.

Base Running

Year

ga_opps

ga_r

aa_opps

aa_r

ha_opps

ha_r

oa_opps

oa_r

total_opps

total_r

2007

38

0

58

1

56

3

462

0

614

3

2008

35

0

54

1

58

1

389

-1

536

1

2009

42

0

77

-1

65

1

554

-1

738

-1

2010

38

-1

54

1

63

0

498

1

653

2

Proj

39

0

61

0

62

1

489

0

651

1

ga_opps: opportunities to advance on groundersga_r: run value of advances on groundersaa_opps: opportunites to advance on air outsaa_r: run value of advances on air outsha_opps: opportunites to advance on hitsha_r: run value of advances on hitsoa_opps: opportunites to adance on other (wild pitches, passed balls, etc.,)oa_r: run value of advances on othertotal_opps: ga + aa + ha + ao opportunitiestotal_r: total run value of non-SB base running, compared to average

Between his SB and non-SB base running, Jeter’s still an asset, although that’s less likely to hold true as he ages.

We’ll be hearing about Jeter’s run at 3000 hits for the first few months of the season, which is bizarre since it happened on June 5th of last season. But to humor those who don’t realize it, Jeter should probably be close to getting his 3000th hit by the second week of June. June 7 through 9 is a three game home series with Boston, and that seems like a good time for it to happen (for the second time).

I’m somewhat pessimistic about Jeter going forward, because even if his offense gets better his defense is almost certainly going to get worse. It doesn’t mean I dislike him. If I was him I’d play until they ripped the uniform off my back. It’ll be up to the Yankees to figure out how they want to handle the scenario where Jeter begins actively hurting the team if/when it manifests itself. I don’t think that will happen in 2011, but I’m positive it will happen before he retires.

I’m somewhat pessimistic about Jeter going forward, because even if his offense gets better his defense is almost certainly going to get worse.

I’m cautiously optimistic, about the bat at least. If Jeter’s problem has been loss of quickness, the changes being implemented should help. If it is batspeed through the hitting zone, we’re in trouble. Long seems to know what he’s doing, and seems to think it is the former. No, we won’t see 2009 again - at least not without a fluky-high BABIP - but I think we can still get a productive hitter.

“An average of -7 for the season means Jeter’s missing something like one play every four weeks.”

That’s interesting, because I’m certain that we all point out missed plays on Jeter’s part far more frequently than that. Like practically every game.

“To be honest, until I see something that makes me think differently, I have to assume Jeter’s going to be closer to that 35% forecast, which is around what he did in 2010.”

That may be, but I’m curious as to why the baseline projection doesn’t represent your best estimate of a player’s performance. Or at least your best estimate not taking into account any subjective considerations. In Jeter’s case, I would trust the projections as an estimate of what to expect from Derek assuming he continues on the path he’s been on over the last several years. However, I would probably adjust that estimate UPWARD based on the work he’s doing to shorten his stride.

In the balls in play by fielder table I think you made a mistake in the 2010 column—everything else should be 0%, and shortstop 100%.

Kidding aside, where did you get this data? All season long last year I was dying to be able to proclaim that Jeter led the league by a mile in groundouts to shortstop on the first pitch—don’t know if your data breaks it down by count, but this is the first time I’ve seen a breakout like this of ball in play by fielder.

Regarding the possible range bias - wouldn’t this affect all shortstops equally? Unless the bias is specifically aimed at Jeter, since the stat is comparing all players at a position wouldn’t system wide bias disappear?

[15] I believe the idea is that if Bad Shortstop A’s range is bad, the observers, seeing him not even try at a ball, will score it a non-fieldable chance instead of taking into account that Average Shortstop B would have gotten to that same ball.

That should be invisible. I would have thought he misses a play an average SS makes more like once a week, judging from the local commentariat reaction at least.

It could be confirmation bias, or the fact that he’s not getting dinged as much as he should for plays he’s missing.

Kidding aside, where did you get this data? All season long last year I was dying to be able to proclaim that Jeter led the league by a mile in groundouts to shortstop on the first pitch—don’t know if your data breaks it down by count, but this is the first time I’ve seen a breakout like this of ball in play by fielder.

Retrosheet’s play by play data.

Regarding the possible range bias - wouldn’t this affect all shortstops equally? Unless the bias is specifically aimed at Jeter, since the stat is comparing all players at a position wouldn’t system wide bias disappear?

No. Where range bias would appear would be on chances deemed as fieldable. In theory every shortstop should have the same zone, but it may be that Jeter’s lack of range is causing whomever is recording his defensive stats to not necessarily be marking down all the missed plays that a player with greater range would be getting to.

Don’t the recorders have a grid of the field where they mark down the place an average SS would field a particular chance? I’d naively expect that to quite limit bias. Hmm, they have to estimate the speed of the ball too, and maybe a little about how it bounces, and the field conditions and grass vs. turf.

Where range bias would appear would be on chances deemed as fieldable.

To add on to that, the idea that I think guys like Mike Fast, Colin Wyers, and others are looking it, has to do with cameras. That is, the camera focuses on where the ball is, and generally has very narrow view of the field. Often meaning that there aren’t any reference points. So two balls hit in exactly the same place up the middle, but the 2nd base bag isn’t in the camera view. Jeter doesn’t enter the picture in one, so the stringer marks it as unfieldable (close to the 2B bag). Tulo gets in the picture and the ball just goes under his glove, so it is put in a zone much closer to where the SS ends up. Jeter gets no or a very small negative, Tulo gets a much larger negative. Field F/X will (theoretcially) fix this.

Basically, I feel that Jeter’s projection is high because I think the peripherals of his 2009 performance indicate a fair amount of good fortune. Because 2009 is almost 30% of his 2011 projection, if it was in fact more luck than skill, he’ll project higher than he should.

Kind of like with Cano and Swisher in reverse, where I think their 2008s are suppressing their projections.

[27] You usually adjust for “no fire” based on observing “inappropriate smiling when team is losing” or “slumped shoulders while lazily jogging after a ball you booted” and cross tabbing it with DominicanFx data.

Live on espNESN for folks like myself who don’t live in the NY area and wait until right before the season to purchase mlb(dot)tv. 7PM EST/4PM PST start. Considering who is starting, I vote a gamechatter complaintchatter is in order.