Friday, March 18, 2011

Northstar picked up another 11 inches on top Wednesday morning with the last band of heavy snow that pushed through. That brought the storm total to 31 inches, the 7 day total to 46 inches, and the season total to 513 inches. Northstar only averages 350 inches a season so we are now at 147% of the annual snowfall average and winter is far from over.

We had a break Thursday and the next storm is ready to dive in this afternoon. This storm will be a much colder storm with a drier & fluffier snow. The main storm pushes into the Tahoe basin around noon and the heavy snow should last through tonight. With the cold air with this storm and moist flow behind the front I would expect snowshowers to last into Saturday. Total liquid by Saturday is 1-1.25 inches. That is less than the last storm but with colder temps and higher snow ratios we will do pretty good. Looking for 12-18 inches in the Village and 18-24 inches on the mountain by Saturday evening.

The main upper low responsible for spinning the storm in today will move down the coast slowly over the weekend. This will keep snow showers going off and on Saturday and Sunday with several more inches possible. Then the main low pushes in another wave of heavy snow Sunday afternoon into Monday and then the main low pushes through Monday night. This second part of the storm looks a little more impressive with liquid amounts of 2-2.25 inches. That would bring another 1-2 feet in the Village and 2-3 feet on the mountain by Tuesday. By Tuesday morning we should have 4 day totals of around 2-3 feet in the Village and 3-5 feet on the mountain.

If you thought that was the end you are wrong. The next storm dives in on Wednesday as another cold low dives down from the Gulf of Alaska. This storm is being shown by most models as slowing as it approaches and then slowly push inland Wednesday-Saturday next week. Looking at snow totals this far out is sketchy but models have enough liquid to bring around 3-4 feet on the mountain. We could have 6-9 feet by next Saturday with another storm ready to move in next Sunday.

With the ridge sitting out in the Central Pacific over the next 10 days we will continue to have a trough along the West coast with cold storms diving in and below average temps. Long-range models show a possible break the last few days of the month before more storms possible into the first week of April. Looking at teleconnections they look more favorable for storms as we go out 2 weeks. MJO is also circling around and strengthening so we could have one more blast of big storms in the beginning of April. Stay tuned......BA