Where the action is: Saturday's NCAAF line moves

The odds are jumping all over the NCAAF Week 6 board, especially in Big Ten matchups. We talk with sportsbooks about the biggest line adjustments, betting trends and where the odds will end up come kickoff Saturday.

Early money came in strong on Miami and forced books to jump right over the dead number of -5 and go straight to -6. That massive move didn’t stop the action on the Hurricanes and some books have gone as high as a touchdown on this ACC contest.

“With over 90 percent of the action on the Hurricanes, we reluctantly went to Miami -7 in hopes of seeing some kind of buyback as well as stopping our bettors from just hammering Miami because our liability on this game is significant,” Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag, tells Covers. “But there’s no question, our sharper players are going to take the seven in this game.”

The status of Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez has shrunk this Big Ten line. Martinez is going to miss Saturday’s home game, leaving the Huskers to go with redshirt freshman Tommy Armstrong Jr. under center.

“Even if (Martinez) played, he would be playing hurt,” Aron Black of Bet365.com, tells Covers. “Turf toe is not an easy thing to just ignore. Action has liked Illinois plus the points since release and with the recent news the total has gone to a low of 59.5 and back to 60 but is still getting played Over.”

Surprisingly, bettors are siding with the Panthers against the defending national champs. Alabama’s defense has lost a bit of its luster and the early action isn’t sold on the Tide covering this massive pointspread.

“With this spread in the 50s, we can move this game as aggressively as we want without worrying about it landing,” says Stewart.

Michigan is coming off a bye after two less-than-impressive outings versus Akron and UConn, failing to cover the spread in both contests. Minnesota had its undefeated streak snapped at home to Iowa last weekend, a game in which the betting public was all over the underdog Hawkeyes.

“Action has been on Minnesota plus the points before moves, but Michigan is a banker for the weekend on a lot of parlay tickets,” says Black.

Sharp money swayed this line Wednesday, coming in hard on the home underdog and forcing this line to move a point. The sharps have been pounding Indiana while the public is balancing that action with money on PSU, making this a Sharps-vs.-Squares Big Ten battle.

“With 75 percent of the action backing Penn State, we might consider going back to +4 but at this point we want to write more Penn State tickets because we respect the Indiana side,” says Stewart.

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1* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The chances for the Browns to avoid the infamy of 0-16 are rapidly dwindling. They are just four games left, but realistically there's probably only two shots where they have a legit chance to win, Dec 24th vs. San Diego and here. This week they are coming off a bye and hosting Cincinnati. I'll recommend to take the points.

It's not as if the Browns haven't been competitive. In fact, they actually outgained the Giants two weeks ago in a 27-13 loss. That game really swung on a defensive score by the G-Men. Despite what the final scores might indicate, they've been competitive in four of the last five games. That doesn't even include close losses to Baltimore, Miami and Tennessee earlier in the year. Robert Griffin III, out since Week 1, is expected to be back this week as the starting QB. Coming off a bye and still motivated to avoid NFL history ('08 Lions only 0-16 team in history), the Browns are a solid value this week. Consider that the "lookahead" line for this game was only +3.5.

The Bengals turned in one of their best performances of the year last week, routing Philadelphia 32-14. But it's "too little, too late" here as a 4-7-1 SU record is probably too big of a hole to climb out of. Even if they were to win out, I'm not sure the Bengals would get into the playoffs. The offense is without WR AJ Green and unlike LW, this is a road game. So far this year, the Bengals are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS away from home. After being darlings at the betting window LY, Cincy is just 3-8-1 ATS overall in 2016. With Browns HC Hue Jackson being the Bengals former OC, might there be a little sympathy on the sidelines? Not sure, but Cleveland is also due to erase an 0-4 SU/ATS slide in this AFC North rivalry. 1* Cleveland

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