SummaryThe telecom market in Japan is approaching saturation, but we expect mobile data to expand further at a 1.2% CAGR between 2012 and 2017. By the end of 2012, all four mobile operators had started deploying LTE. Pay-TV, broadband Internet and VoIP are also growing.

Key FindingsThe telecom market in Japan is rapidly approaching saturation, with growth stemming from a structural shift. After overtaking mobile voice as the largest segment in 2010 with revenue of $39.35bn, mobile data has grown steadily, and we expect it to expand further at a 1.2% CAGR between 2012 and 2017, when it will register more than one-third of the entire market value. By the end of 2012, all four mobile operators started deploying LTE, with more than $6bn (¥500bn) earmarked for the construction and expansion of LTE networks. The strengthening of network capacity and the substantial size of the mobile data opportunity have already lured considerable interest in developing high-bandwidth apps for smartphones and tablets. The increasing bundling of pay-TV with broadband Internet is expected to drive each to grow at rates of 3.2% and 3.6%, respectively. Riding on a CAGR of 7.1%, fixed VoIP is set to surpass circuit-switched voice revenue toward the end of 2017. The total market size in US dollar terms will decline at a CAGR of -1.2% due to a strengthening yen. However, in local currency terms, we expect the market to actually expand by 2.1%.

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