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I made some changes in the Wednesday forecast to account for warmer surface temperatures… not too much of a shift, but it could change the plans for a significant amount of Maryland workers.

We’re still looking at 0.1-0.2″ of freezing rain along the northern parts of the rain area before it switches over around the morning rush hour in areas. Hopefully there will be enough normal rain to keep the big freezing rain from causing too much fuss in the major metro and commuter areas.

The strength of the cold air damming will be a big player in determining where the different areas set up. Based on recent guidance and trends, I’ve come up with the following maps depicting the first event (with light precip. totals over most of the region) and for the second event (which will have QPF in the 0.4-0.8″ range for the most part in MD/North VA and 1″+ QPF possible in PA):

Please note the word MOSTLY in the mixed precipitation and rain categories. This indicates that these areas will fluctuate a bit during the events. Some mixed precipitation is also possible in the snow areas (in the 1-2″ contour and maybe even in the southern parts of the 2-4″ contour).

With 8 tornado reports and 41 total storm reports, this is already the biggest severe weather outbreak/event to occur in recorded history on New Years’ Eve. Let’s also not forget about the snow! Some areas in the Northern Plains are forecast to get over a foot of snow from this system.