It’s incontrovertible that President Trump’s surprise ban on transgender people in the military has nothing to do with costs, military effectiveness, or any other factual basis. It’s also been well-observed that the ban is a political act, both to shore up Trump’s religious right base and to force Democrats in Rust Belt states to take potentially unpopular political positions.

But why transgender people in the military? Why this issue?

Actually, the closer you look at this odious and deplorable act, the more political sense it makes, the less surprising it is—and the more worrisome that it will turn out to be a win for Republicans. Above all, it is an attempt to split the T apart from the LGBT.

The dangerous fact is, the American public does not feel the same way about trans people as they do about gay people.

On what has, lamentably, become the defining issue of transgender equality—bathroom use—the American public is equally divided. Only 41 percent of Americans believe that trans people should be able to use the restroom corresponding to the gender identity, while 46 percent say they should be required to use the restroom corresponding to their birth sex.