2017 Baseball Predictions

Last year I made my predictions for the 2016 MLB season, and I did surprisingly well. I picked 3 of 6 division winners, 2 of the 4 wild card teams, and the eventual World Series winner. So, rather than quit while I’m ahead, I thought I’d plunge into making predictions again this year. As with last year, I’m using the computer-based PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus as a guide, although I don’t follow it slavishly. Let’s get started!

AL East

Last year I said, “PECOTA always loves the Rays, but I’ve lived around them long enough to know that PECOTA is wrong.” Perhaps now that I’ve moved away from the Tampa area I’m more nostalgic for them, but I think they will be in contention for the Wild Card (and I predict they will get it). I think this division will be tightly grouped, with even the bottom team being respectable.

AL Central

Expect for the NL Central, this division has the best chance of being a run-away. Adding Encarnacion, having Andrew Miller for a full year, and getting back a number of their injured stars makes the Indians the team to beat.

AL West

Last year I predicted the Rangers would flop, and they ended up with the best record in the AL. But their run differential was paltry which showed they weren’t that strong of a team. I think the standings will show that this year.