But as summer drags on and the presidential campaign heats up, we may be seeing opposite as well. Voters’ thoughts about the economy, or at least about its future, look like they may be tied tightly to their personal politics.

This latest WSJ/NBC poll asked what seems a very straightforward question: “During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?” And the overall answer was hardly revelatory: 27% said it would get better, 25% said it would get worse and 45% said it would stay the same. Pretty close to a split overall.

But slice the results along different political and demographic lines and the numbers look very different. In short, voter blocs that tend to lean toward President Obama feel much better about the future of the economy than those that favor presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney.

Click for the full chart.

Among Mr. Obama’s more supportive demographic slices, 51% of African Americans believe the economy will get better in the next 12 months, while only 8% expect it to get worse. Among Hispanics, 37% expect the economy to improve, while 14% think it will decline. Voters who describe themselves as politically “liberal” see a better future – 43% expect the economy to get better. And those who support Mr. Obama see a sunnier year ahead, 44% expect the economy to be better in a year compared to 7% who believe it will be worse.

On the side of the political spectrum, the economic horizon is decidedly more gloomy. White voters, who lean as a group toward Mr. Romney, are expecting a tougher year ahead, with 29% saying the economy will be worse and 22% saying it will be better. Self-described “conservatives” believe things will be worse next July: 40% say it will decline in the next 12 months, compared with 15% who believe it will be better. And 42% of Romney supporters say the economy will be in worse shape, while only 10% believe it will be better.

One may look at those numbers and think, well, maybe economic optimists tend to be Obama supporters, while economic pessimists favor Mr. Romney. But there are reasons to doubt that theory.

First, consider the tea party and the Occupy movement. Supporters of those two groups both say they dislike the state and direction of the economy, yet on this question they fall neatly in line with where you’d expect. A full 40% of supporters of the left-leaning Occupy movement, expect the economy to improve in the next year, while 11% expect it to worse. Remember, that’s 40% of a group predicated on inherent injustices in the economic system. Meanwhile, among the more conservative tea partiers, 45% expect the economy to get worse, while only 11% think it will get better.

A map of the most recent U.S. county unemployment figures seems to drive the point home.

A lot of states and counties in the middle of the country have very low unemployment – starting in Texas up through Kansas, Nebraska and the Dakotas and over through Montana and Utah. In an election that’s supposed to be about the economy, those states are the backbone of Mr. Romney’s support. Meanwhile, California, Oregon and Washington, where there is a lot of red, are all considered to be pretty safely in Mr. Obama’s column.

You can see a similar divide using Patchwork Nation county types. The most Republican-leaning type, the socially conservative Evangelical Epicenters, feel the most dour about the future of the economy – 33% expect it to get worse next year, while 25% believe it will get better. The most Democratic county type, the big city Industrial Metropolis counties, are the most cheerful: 43% expect improvement in the economy in the next year and only 15% see a dip.

The kicker? Both those places have suffered more than the nation as a whole in the economic troubles, but Industrial Metros have a higher unemployment rate (9.5%) than the Evangelical Epicenters (8.7%).

Of course, the way one feels about the economy, and particularly the economy’s future, may not be directly tied to the current unemployment rate, but one wouldn’t expect there to be an inverse relationship between the two things. Moreover, the other numbers outlined indicate the economic outlook divide has strong ties to political preference.

All of this is something to keep in mind in the coming weeks as analysts discuss the impact of the economy in the presidential campaign. Yes, in 2012 it’s still “the economy, stupid.” It usually is. But how do people understand the economy?

Years of hard times and a bumpy recovery have made the future harder to see clearly. For now, partisan predilections seem to be playing a large role in the economic road voters see ahead. And, minus a major shift, those views will likely harden as the election draws closer and the political atmosphere grows more partisan.

Below, WSJ reporters break down the latest numbers from the WSJ/NBC poll that reveal President Obama’s greatest weakness:

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