Will the U.S. Run a Trade Surplus Again?

Editor's Note: This is an excerpt of an article by Paulsen, chief investment strategist with Wells Capital Management, a unit of Wells Fargo & Co.

Since the exchange value of the U.S. dollar doubled during the first half of the 1980s, the U.S. has continuously run trade deficits during the last 30 years. This economic character has been so prevalent and so pronounced (at its worst, the U.S. trade deficit was about 6% of GDP)...