Xi’s economic planners may for the first time emphasize “population policies” over gross domestic product in the country’s next development blueprint, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. The focus sets the stage for a host of rule changes regarding health, pensions, social welfare and possibly lifting the caps on children some families can have, the person said.

About 1.5 million couples had applied for a second child under the new policy as of May, according to the National Health and Family Planning Commission. That lagged official projections of an additional 2 million new births annually.

The results have fueled calls for a more dramatic approach as Xi finishes the country’s next five-year plan, a Stalinist holdover of China’s old command economy. The plan was expected to be discussed with Communist Party elders earlier this month before approval at party meetings in October.

China must boost births now from about 16 million per year to 24 million per year to have the work force in 2050 stabilize at about its current level. The difference with new report is that the change discussion is being attributed to Chinese president Xi.

This number is close to the global warning of a low fertility trap, which could result in an ageing population and a labor shortage. Experts are calling on the government to fully lift all restrictions to have a second child, and the sooner the better, along with adjusting the family planning policy even more.

Stanford analysis of working age (15-64) population in 2050 based on 2008 UN medium projection. This is before the recent China policy shift which is boosting births by 1 million per year from about 15.5 million per year.

China's child policies now will determine if China has 1.3 billion in 2050 or 1.65 billion

If population policies in China boost child births from 15 million to 23 million for the next 20 years then the China would have 160 million more working age people in 2050. This would prevent a drop of 110 million and perhaps increase the working age population by 5%. Working age population now is about 970 million.

Other ways to deal with the shrinking working age populations would be to increase retirement ages from 64 to say 74. This would keep the working age population stable in the face of 15% drop in overall population in the 15-64 range.

China also has a lower number of people in the urban areas in more productive jobs today. China is also boosting its more productive college educated workforce.

The overall economic impact would be effected by
* how many working age population
* when do people retired
* how urbanized - China will go from 50% to 70-80% in 2050
* how educated and productive is the workforce
* how much automation and efficiency is there