October 3, 2005 is a day of eclipse. I would like to offer the amateur prediction that whatever storm is forming or will form will begin to be tracked by this date. I would also like to state that I have an gut feeling that this storm will be somewhat overlooked due to the notariety of the last two. The name is so short that it is almost sure to be notorious for one reason or another by the end of the month of october. Stan it is going to be interesting in an odd way.

i think its a littlllele to early for Stan, there was a wave that was being watched but the shear is tearign up, may have to watch it alittle later in the week, but nothing imminent as of now. Lets keep itthat way. Later in the season the cyclones that do form are usually out to sea or weakened by the droping SST's..not this year, the water is stilll warm enough.

--------------------2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Invest is up today 99L He will be Stan and he will give the forecasters nightmares. It has to do with the Solar eclipse on Monday October 3, which will screw up some of the data. The storm will have everyone convinced it is going one direction and will politely turn and go another. It won't do a Charlie or Jeanne or Frances. But it will have everyone wondering, One of the reasons is because we have not had this kind of season in recent past and because the timing is off from the climate making historical models kind of "wrong". That cold front that is forecasted will kind mess things up as well. As for where he will land, that depends on strength and water temperatures by the time it does. ( How is that for being specific? ) I do know we will be contending with screw ups in weather through no fault of the technologists.

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Invest is up today 99L He will be Stan and he will give the forecasters nightmares. It has to do with the Solar eclipse on Monday October 3, which will screw up some of the data. The storm will have everyone convinced it is going one direction and will politely turn and go another. It won't do a Charlie or Jeanne or Frances. But it will have everyone wondering, One of the reasons is because we have not had this kind of season in recent past and because the timing is off from the climate making historical models kind of "wrong". That cold front that is forecasted will kind mess things up as well. As for where he will land, that depends on strength and water temperatures by the time it does. ( How is that for being specific? ) I do know we will be contending with screw ups in weather through no fault of the technologists.

Just curious, what do you base your forecast on? Just a hunch or do you see something in the models that lead you to this conclusion?

I study astronomy as well as weather. There is no real mystery to model interpretation, for anyone who understands that high pressure systems tend to feed into low pressure until it becomes stable. Low pressure such as in a tropical system will move until it comes near a ridge of high pressure. IT willl then follow the ridge of high pressure until it finds the weakest area to pass through. That is all I know about modeling.

As for meterology and astronomy. I know that the moon's gravitational pull on the tides also affects weather as well and that there is an eclipse on or around October the 3rd where the moon, sun and mars and earth, will be lined up in relation to each other and that this will influence weather patterns for extreme differences when comparing them. It remains to be seen if this extremeness will apply to a Tropical storm or hurricane. But that was the original post. It will be interesting to me to see what influence this eclipse does have.

we now have a trackable storm. We also now have our own site meterologists scratching their heads over how this next phase of storms is going to play out. The problem with the weather now is that the climate does not lend clues as to how these systems are going to play against each other. I was looking at a list of storms that were S over at another site and there was only one in 1933 that was S. That is not a lot of climatology information to say what our S storm is going to be like much less how the surrounding systems will be effected.

Don't forget Sebastian in 1995, a central Atlantic storm that fizzled out as it reached the Lesser Antilles. --Clark

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