More extraordinary twists in the DSK affair grip France—and create fresh agonies in the Socialist Party

LESS than two months ago Dominique Strauss-Kahn, favourite in the polls for next year's French presidential election, was locked up in a New York jail and on suicide watch, after his arrest on charges of attempted rape and sexual assault. Now, just as the French had faced up to his disqualification from public life, the case against the former IMF boss seems close to collapse. A Manhattan judge's decision on July 1st to free DSK, as he is known, from house arrest, amid doubts about the credibility of his accuser, has again knocked France sideways.

The latest episode in this torrid saga involving power, money, sex, politics and transatlantic incomprehension came from revelations about the plaintiff, a hotel maid. The district attorney's office in New York catalogued a devastating string of lies: on her application for asylum, on her tax return, to the housing authorities, to a grand jury and, repeatedly, to the prosecutors, including over what happened in the hotel after the alleged assault on May 14th. A report in the New York Times claims she made a phone call to a jailed man a day later, in which she discussed potential financial gain; he and others had deposited some $100,000 into her bank account over the past two years.

Such revelations leave the accuser's credibility in tatters, whether or not her account of what took place in the hotel room is true. The maid's lawyer, Kenneth Thompson, insists that “she has never once changed a single thing” in her story of the sexual assault. And DNA evidence suggests that a sexual encounter did indeed take place. Yet the case still looks likely to fall apart. It could even be dismissed ahead of Mr Strauss-Kahn's next scheduled court appearance on July 18th.

For the French, stunned yet again by the DSK affair, the most pressing question is whether he might be able to revive his political career, and even his presidential hopes. Recent history suggests that nobody is disqualified forever from French politics—Alain Juppé, now foreign minister, was once convicted of political corruption. On paper, nominations for the Socialist presidential primary are due to close on July 13th. But various party leaders, including Martine Aubry, the Socialists' boss and herself a candidate, have made clear that this timetable could be stretched.

The French are divided over a possible comeback. At best, 49% want him to have a political future, with 45% against. At worst, 54% say they do not want him to run in the Socialist primary. The French were indignant over the “perp walk”, which they regard as a humiliating breach of the presumption of innocence (see article). There is sympathy for a man some thought destined for the presidency being brought down by an aggressive American judicial system. DSK's friends on the left sounded triumphant at the collapsing case. Bernard-Henri Lévy, a celebrity intellectual, this week called his treatment “obscene” and “pornographic”. Even the French media, which had pronounced his political death, now talk of a possible resurrection.

Moreover, conspiracy theories are flying around yet again. One Socialist deputy says that “something does not quite add up” in the link between Accor, the French group that owns the Sofitel hotel in New York, where the alleged assault took place and which said the maid was “completely satisfactory”, and security contacts in the Elysée Palace. Claude Guéant, the interior minister, described as “odious” the idea that such contacts constituted anything other than communication of the facts. Accor also denies claims of interference. But from the start, 57% of the French public has seen DSK's arrest as part of a plot, so denials are unlikely to quell rumours. In April, in a discussion about dirty tricks with Libération, a leftist newspaper, Mr Strauss-Kahn even speculated about a scenario in which “a woman [that he had supposedly raped] in a car park would be promised €500,000 to invent such a story.”

Sympathy for DSK has, however, to be set against distaste at the wider revelations about his way of life. Polls suggest that women and older voters have the biggest reservations. Many French voters who find ostentatious wealth obnoxious have been taken aback to see DSK flaunt his fabulous riches. They also know that the collapse of the case does not prove there was no sexual encounter. Mr Strauss-Kahn's lawyers have stated only that there was “no element of forcible compulsion”. This week the maid sued the New York Post for reporting that she was a prostitute. Whatever the nature of the encounter, one French left-wing editor, Laurent Joffrin, puts it well: “you do not take such risks when one seeks the highest office”.

More troubling still, Mr Strauss-Kahn faces charges for attempted rape in France. This week Tristane Banon, a writer, filed a lawsuit against him for an alleged assault in 2003. She did not press charges at the time, partly on the advice of her mother, a Socialist politician. Under French law, she can sue for attempted rape up to ten years after the event (though only three years after a sexual assault). Mr Strauss-Kahn's arrest has emboldened many women besides Ms Banon to break France's code of silence over sexual assault. Many talk of a “before and after DSK”. Calls to a rape hotline jumped nearly 30% following his arrest. Georges Tron, a minister, lost his job in late May after two former employees accused him of sexual assault following foot-massage sessions, charges that he denies.

The Socialist Party is in a fix. Its leaders are publicly leaving the door open to DSK. But they had turned the page and inherited most of his poll lead over Mr Sarkozy. Ms Aubry has said that she will “go all the way”. François Hollande, the front-runner, is also unlikely to drop out. “I don't think DSK can return, even if he wants to, which itself isn't clear,” says a Socialist insider. And if he does not run, it is not obvious that he would be an asset to the campaign of any other Socialist candidate either. Mr Strauss-Kahn may be close to escaping the clutches of the American justice system, but the attempted rape case going before French investigators has hardly started.