WaPo/ABC poll shows no change in race from before convention

posted at 9:21 am on September 11, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Maybe this will stop the silly post-convention panic among Republicans. When the Washington Post/ABC poll tells you there’s been no convention bump for Barack Obama, you can pretty much take that to the bank. Their latest survey shows the likely-voter split in the presidential race right where we found it a fortnight ago, with Obama up one single point over Mitt Romney — in a sample that favors the Democrats:

Last week’s Democratic National Convention helped President Obama improve his standing against Republican Mitt Romney, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, but did little to reduce voter concern about his handling of the economy.

The survey shows that the race remains close among likely voters, with Obama at 49 percent and Romney at 48 percent, virtually unchanged from a poll taken just before the conventions.

So, the second paragraph actually disproves the first. But the Post tries hard to pretend that no movement among likely voters means improvement for Obama:

But among a wider sample of all registered voters, Obama holds an apparent edge, topping Romney at 50 percent to 44 percent, and has clear advantages on important issues in the campaign when compared with his rival.

We’re less than 60 days out. Registered-voter samples don’t mean much at this stage of the election; it’s likely voters that provide predictive data from surveys. They mean even less when only 26% in the sample are Republicans. The likely voter sample improves that by a point to 27%, but still has a D+6 D/R/I at 33/27/36. The 2010 midterms had a national turnout D/R/I of 35/35/30; the 2008 election was D+7 at 39/32/29. A GOP turnout of 27% would be among the worst ever in a presidential race, if not a record. Since enthusiasm measures in other surveys, notably Gallup’s, show an enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans, I’m not inclined to buy this poll’s likely-voter split as a model for this election.

Also, the internals for Obama even among RVs are hardly cheery. His job approval hasn’t budged since before the conventions. Three weeks ago, it was 47/50, and now it’s 48/50. On the economy, he went from 43/56 to 45/53. Among independents, Obama’s job approval is 45/50 with 37% strongly disapproving. That’s probably why Romney’s beating Obama among likely independent voters by eleven points, 54/43. Obama won independents by eight in 2008 on his way to a seven point victory overall. That’s a 19-point swing among independents.

In other words, the convention had no real impact at all on the race. That’s why I say “I told you so” in my column for The Week:

Gallup conducted a survey of more than 1,000 adults over the two days following the end of the Democratic National Convention to determine which convention had the most impact. In practically every measure, the conventions produced no net change in anticipated voter behavior. After the Republican convention, 40 percent said they’d be more likely to vote for Mitt Romney, while 38 percent said less likely, with 21 percent saying the convention had no real impact at all. For Democrats, the numbers are 43/38/20, respectively. Both sets of numbers are within the 4 percent margin of error, producing a complete wash.

Conventions used to serve the purpose of cutting through the media filters so that undecided voters could see candidates for themselves and decide on their vote. But Gallup’s data on independents shows that such voters were largely unswayed by the conventions. The Democratic convention produced a 39/39 split among unaffiliated voters (half said they were more likely to vote for Obama, and half said less), while the GOP convention had a three-point positive edge, 36/33 — still well within the margin of error. Furthermore, fewer people watched the conventions at length this year, with only 55 percent of Gallup’s respondents saying they’d watched “a great deal” or “some” of the Democratic convention, and 51 percent for the GOP convention. Those are the lowest ratings from Gallup for nominating conventions in 12 years.

The speeches didn’t exactly move the needle, either — at least not those by the nominees. Only 43 percent rated Barack Obama’s speech “excellent” or “good,” just 5 points higher than Mitt Romney’s 38 percent. Both candidates scored a 16 percent combined “poor” or “terrible” rating, while roughly a quarter of respondents didn’t see either speech.

Update: The poll also asks the “better off” question, among RVs only, and only 20% think they’re better off from 4 years ago, while 32% believe they’re worse off, and 47% say no change. Among independents, that’s 19/38/43, perhaps one reason why Romney’s up eleven among independents.

Update II: Since I usually heap scorn on the WaPo/ABC series’ samples, I really should note that the Post has done a terrific job in providing easy access to the raw data breakdowns. They have each question charted, with the cross-tab info easily accessible on each via drop-down boxes. Well done.

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Obama has a six-point edge among all voters based on interviews Friday, the day after the Democratic convention wrapped up. In interviews Saturday and Sunday, the two were about evenly matched among registered voters.

Remember back during the RNC? Obama spent THREE DAYS practically living in Iowa, a state he won handily by almost 10 points. Does he do that if he’s as confident as some on our side seem to be about these numbers? Probably not.

We’re less than 60 days out. Registered-voter samples don’t mean much at this stage of the election; it’s likely voters that provide predictive data from surveys. They mean even less when only 26% in the sample are Republicans. The likely voter sample improves that by a point to 27%, but still has a D+6 D/R/I at 33/27/36. The 2010 midterms had a national turnout D/R/I of 35/35/30; the 2008 election was D+7 at 39/32/29. A GOP turnout of 27% would be among the worst ever in a presidential race, if not a record. Since enthusiasm measures in other surveys, notably Gallup’s, show an enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans, I’m not inclined to buy this poll’s likely-voter split as a model for this election.

In other words, with an accurate sample of the electorate, Romney’s not only leading but is doing so probably well outside the margin of error. So can we stop with the panic here, people? A convention bump is not a new development. And we’ve known for months that these poll samples are heavily skewed toward the Dems(Rasmussen and a couple others excepted).

I’ll say it for the 100th time. If we show up and vote on November 6, we win. It’s that simple.

Folks, the reality on the ground is not going to change in the eyes of the majority of voters. The reality on the gorund is that we have very bad economy, very bad unemployment, very bad economic growth, insane debt, $ 4 a gallon of gas, very high food prices, and of course Obama utterly failed record. No amount of empty rhetoric speeches and stages photo-ops are going to change this reality on the ground and hence Obama is going to lose the elections.

Truly amazing that in poll after poll, Romney and Obama get equal portions of their partisan vote and Romney leads the remaining group (Independents) by double digits and yet Obama magically leads the poll.

Given this still trying to figure out how Obama leads Rasmussen by 5.

The good news is that all lf these pollsters will have to have a come to Jesus moment in the last 2 weeks of the campaign, forcing them to fix their samples and showing HUGE momentum to Romney. This knife cuts both ways.

WTF is right. We’ll see. What is amazing is that people think that is within the realm of possibility, that only 14% are indies…that right there should raise eyebrows. In fact, the Justice Department should be investigating how the polling organizations are trying to discourage Republican vote, but that will never happen.

The good news is that all lf these pollsters will have to have a come to Jesus moment in the last 2 weeks of the campaign, forcing them to fix their samples and showing HUGE momentum to Romney. This knife cuts both ways.

mitchellvii on September 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM

And more people pay attention to polls these days. I think the one thing that will come out of this cycle is that the public will have an even better bead on the connection between the Democrat Media and the pollsters. It should drive down news ratings even further.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows President Obama attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

Today’s data suggests that the president’s convention bounce has started to fade. See daily tracking history. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 49% and Romney 47%. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either candidate but express a preference for one of them in a follow-up question.

So Obama’s already lost 2 points off of his Rasmussen lead thanks to Friday being dropped from the rolling average. Just wait til Saturday and Sunday get dropped as well. Like I said, chill out people!

I know I was moved by how the Democrat convention was so successful in messaging….first they told us “we belong to the government”…..that was inspiring…then we heard about abortions, more abortions and we heard from the future of the DNC…Sandra Fluke….Ahh then the democrats voted against God, after they had been voting for gay marriage….That was inspirational ….Bill Clinton told us…he is Bill Clinton and Barack Obama is just Barack Obama,he is no Bill Clinton…and then on Thursday mr. Obama gave us a Jimmy Carter speech…..and Friday was the jobs report….

Now someone explain to me how those events…are game changers in Obama’s favor….

I say it for the bad ones, I’ll say it for the good ones: Pay no attention to the polls. The good ones will make you lazy and the bad ones will depress you. Not only do we have the WH to take over, but we also have to keep the House and take the Senate. That’s going to require more than just reading polls and going from good feelings to rotten feelings. we need energy, and the constant focusing on the horse race can really sap a lot of that energy. On to Nov.

If you re-weight the WaPo poll to equal numbers of dems and GOP (ala 2010, 2004, etc.), then the poll changes to 51.2% Romney vs 48.8% Obama among likely voters. Further, if the GOP voters were as enthusiastic about Romney as the dem voters are about Obama, Romney would be up another point.

The bottom line is that those of us at the center and to the right have it within ourselves to deliver this country into or from another four years of Obama. Don’t get cocky, don’t despair, do get to work.

That states that in any complex environment, the simplest most obvious answer is usually correct. Obama is a terrible President. He will lose.

mitchellvii on September 11, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Well you can’t apply that here. The environment isn’t complex, it’s pretty damn simple, the economy sucks. What’s been made complex is the answer or solution, and Romney’s added to that complexity with his remarks during and after the marxists met in Charlotte.

Drudge shows an article from the Houston Chronicle, stating how accurate (or not) the FINAL polls were in 2008. Unfortunately, they don’t tell us how far off the polls were 60 DAYS away from the election.

Thank God. I was beginning to think America was as dumb as a box of rocks. Above 8% unemployment. No Keystone Pipeline. High gas prices. Higher heating costs. Higher taxes. Less freedom. An assault on the constitution and our God given rights all for free birth control? It seemed unbelievable and now I see it was.

Generic comgressional polls are excrement. There is no such thing as a national congressional vote. State/district polls are the only ones that mean anything.

Bat Chain Puller on September 11, 2012 at 9:43 AM

And they are only worth watching in districts or states that might flip. After New York City reaches 51% of the vote for dems, it doesn’t magically carry over to Upstate. Another device to try to drive R turnout down.

Laura Ingraham, and Joe Scarborough are the biggest cheerleaders for Obama I have ever seen. I think both of them really need to shut the hell up.

I saw Ingraham saying Fox this morning that if Romney doesn’t want people like her to freak out, that he should start winning these polls. I couldn’t believe my ears. That woman has completely lost her marbles and her mind. Joe Scarborough is just an imbecile.

Maybe this will stop the silly post-convention panic among Republicans.

Meh. HA and TH bloggers post most every poll, skewed or not. And have been since last November. You folks need to get to the substance and avoid the lib-biased polls. Or, better yet, Ed, have a ‘beer summit’ with AP. That’ll certainly straighten some of the bunched panties on this site.

What has your Auntie Sekhmet been saying? Wait until Thursday drops off the rolling average, Wait until Thursday drops off the polling average, and again, wait for Thursday to drop off the rolling average. And as usual, I am right. Numbers are dropping back to Earth, and the Eeyores can chill now.

I saw Ingraham saying Fox this morning that if Romney doesn’t want people like her to freak out, that he should start winning these polls. I couldn’t believe my ears. That woman has completely lost her marbles and her mind. Joe Scarborough is just an imbecile.

Chudi on September 11, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Ingraham is the perfect substitute host for O’Reilly. Like him, she is more interested in promoting herself and getting attention than she is about winning this or any other election. Supporting Romney and opposing Obama isn’t edgy enough. So she thought she’d shake things up by bashing Romney and the GOP.

What has your Auntie Sekhmet been saying? Wait until Thursday drops off the rolling average, Wait until Thursday drops off the polling average, and again, wait for Thursday to drop off the rolling average. And as usual, I am right. Numbers are dropping back to Earth, and the Eeyores can chill now.

Sekhmet on September 11, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Thanks Auntie! Could we have some crybaby concern troll pie and ice cream with that?

“I saw Ingraham saying Fox this morning that if Romney doesn’t want people like her to freak out, that he should start winning these polls. I couldn’t believe my ears. That woman has completely lost her marbles and her mind. Joe Scarborough is just an imbecile.”

You may not believe it, but there is a portion of the public that wants to back a winner and will vote for the likely victor. If Obama looks inevitable, as he does on intrade, it makes a difference in the perceptions of the candidates.

Whether he loses by 1 pt or 3 pts, Romney looks like a loser, and his campaign feels like a losing proposition (especially with that memo out yesterday).

Question- Does Real Clear Politics just take these polls at face value without examining their internals? Anyone know?

BettyRuth on September 11, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Yes. They do not care what the cross tabs are. As long as a pollster is pseudo-credible (or in Pew’s case, simply a pollster), RCP includes the poll.

That is why many times you need to look at the RCP average with a huge grain of salt. Between awful pollsters like PPP, Pew and Quinnipiac, the polls are always skewed about 2 points towards Democrats (and PPP comes out with ridiculous polls at an hourly rate).

You may not believe it, but there is a portion of the public that wants to back a winner and will vote for the likely victor. If Obama looks inevitable, as he does on intrade, it makes a difference in the perceptions of the candidates.

Whether he loses by 1 pt or 3 pts, Romney looks like a loser, and his campaign feels like a losing proposition (especially with that memo out yesterday).

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Got intrade’s numbers on Incumbent Dem President re-elections? They weren’t around for any? I’m shocked.

You may not believe it, but there is a portion of the public that wants to back a winner and will vote for the likely victor. If Obama looks inevitable, as he does on intrade, it makes a difference in the perceptions of the candidates.

Whether he loses by 1 pt or 3 pts, Romney looks like a loser, and his campaign feels like a losing proposition (especially with that memo out yesterday).

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 9:56 AM

If there’s any candidate in this race who epitomizes “loser”, it’s Barack Obama. His whole campaign is geared toward people who considering themselves victims or dependents.

You may not believe it, but there is a portion of the public that wants to back a winner and will vote for the likely victor. If Obama looks inevitable, as he does on intrade, it makes a difference in the perceptions of the candidates.

Whether he loses by 1 pt or 3 pts, Romney looks like a loser, and his campaign feels like a losing proposition (especially with that memo out yesterday).

I saw Ingraham saying Fox this morning that if Romney doesn’t want people like her to freak out, that he should start winning these polls. I couldn’t believe my ears. That woman has completely lost her marbles and her mind. Joe Scarborough is just an imbecile.

Chudi on September 11, 2012 at 9:48 AM

I saw that too- made me really question her intelligence. It was almost as if she’d be O.K., with an eventual loss, just make her happy NOW with a good poll.

That’s probably why Romney’s beating Obama among likely independent voters by eleven points, 54/43. Obama won independents by eight in 2008 on his way to a seven point victory overall. That’s a 19-point swing among independents.

I think this is where O is going to get hammered. By hammered, I mean hammered

A while back, a lot of people used to say homes needed to be a lot more affordable, a cliche lamentation. Democrat politicians started calling government homes “Affordable homes” and ruined the word.

Recently we have been clamoring for polls of likely voters. Likely voters are people who get off their bum on election day, rain or shine, and whether or not they like their candidates or are wild about them and go make a choice.

Your town clerk can tell who the likely voters are, and in your state the dems and the gop have access to this info. Likely voters, turn out for school board elections and primaries and congressional year elections. Their names are on lists.

The new way for pollsters to call their registered voters Likely voters, is they just ask them, are you likely to vote? Now they can call their registered voter poll…a popularity poll of adults…Likely voters.

In order for the Romney campaign to get the true info, they are phoning themselves. Phoning the real likely voters.

You can be part of it, you will phone real Likely voters and help find our voters. Contact your GOP victory office today. You can go to the Mitt Website, and look for your state under states and click the button to volunteer. Maybe you feel scared right now, but click the buttons and read what it says. Then you sign up, it is not anonymous, you need to make an account for yourself, and someone will email you and get you involved.

The voters are anxious to vote, and they are getting antsy, and the media is playing with your mind. If you volunteer you will meet nice people like yourself, and bide the time working hard, instead of worrying about the future of the country. Our voters are chomping at the bit to get to the polls, and the media wants to discourage you. Don’t listen to the whiners, many of them care more about being right about predicting something bad, than helping the country recover, and they swim in the media fishbowl in d.c. which is icky.

You may not believe it, but there is a portion of the public that wants to back a winner and will vote for the likely victor. If Obama looks inevitable, as he does on intrade, it makes a difference in the perceptions of the candidates.

Whether he loses by 1 pt or 3 pts, Romney looks like a loser, and his campaign feels like a losing proposition (especially with that memo out yesterday).

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Check volume along with price on InTrade for both Romney and 0bama. Someone is snapping up 0bama shares as soon as they are sold, while Romney’s volume looks a lot more like other inTrade bets. Looks like our stimulus money is going to some paid InTrade users.

You may not believe it, but there is a portion of the public that wants to back a winner and will vote for the likely victor. If Obama looks inevitable, as he does on intrade, it makes a difference in the perceptions of the candidates.

Whether he loses by 1 pt or 3 pts, Romney looks like a loser, and his campaign feels like a losing proposition (especially with that memo out yesterday).

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 9:56 AM

That’s about the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard; Especially given that that’s how we got stuck with Obama last year. Hope and change and all. I doubt if the independents and cons who fell for that crap last time are going to fall for it again.

“I saw Ingraham saying Fox this morning that if Romney doesn’t want people like her to freak out, that he should start winning these polls. I couldn’t believe my ears. That woman has completely lost her marbles and her mind. Joe Scarborough is just an imbecile.”

You may not believe it, but there is a portion of the public that wants to back a winner and will vote for the likely victor. If Obama looks inevitable, as he does on intrade, it makes a difference in the perceptions of the candidates.

Whether he loses by 1 pt or 3 pts, Romney looks like a loser, and his campaign feels like a losing proposition (especially with that memo out yesterday).

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Seriously one trick ponies are more interesting than the drivel you spout.

You may not believe it, but there is a portion of the public that wants to back a winner and will vote for the likely victor. If Obama looks inevitable, as he does on intrade, it makes a difference in the perceptions of the candidates.

“If there’s any candidate in this race who epitomizes “loser”, it’s Barack Obama. His whole campaign is geared toward people who considering themselves victims or dependents.”

There are a good number of people out there (I’m one of them) who will vote against Obama, but are 100% certain that Obama will win. Every single poll that asks “who do you think will win the election” gets an overwhelming response for Obama.

In order to change that perception/narrative, Romney does have to lead in a few polls.

Check volume along with price on InTrade for both Romney and 0bama. Someone is snapping up 0bama shares as soon as they are sold, while Romney’s volume looks a lot more like other inTrade bets. Looks like our stimulus money is going to some paid InTrade users.