94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94LThe latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.

Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the AzoresHurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.

Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

You guys want to know where 94L will go? You guys heaved been doing it all wrong it's so easy. If you want to know where he will go, why don't you just ask him for yourself. Anybody has 94L cell number or Facebook so we could personally tell us where he wants to go. Only he knows and he's keeping it a secret. LOL

check out the steering and several models the last few days I do believe showed the WSW movement before the islands

I see the high is pressing pretty far south right now, but 94L would have to make up a bit of ground before being forced WSW by that steering flow. Let's look at what happens during that time. The high is pressing south at 0 hours, but remember we have a front advancing eastward over the SE United States, and the effect of advancing fronts on the ridges to their east is usually to amplify them and move them more poleward. The GFS shows that this will happen within the next 48-60 hours and result in the pressure from the high easing as 94L nears the Caribbean, thereby allowing a west or WNW movement.

Quoting j2008:Are we seriously talking about wheither an invest with a 20% chance will beat out the invest with a 70% chance? I will bet my rediculous portion of crow that 94L will by far easily make it to TD and TS before 95L. 94L has way better organization, all it needs is a little more convection and we have TD 9. JMO though.

Quoting louisianaweatherguy:95L has quite a little circulation going with it...

As does all the current convection along the Gulf Coast caused by all the shortwave troughs being spun off by the stalled front to the north. If you look at the latest IR, the Gulf convection is almost far enough south to begin merging with 95L.

Quoting SLU:Very strong agreement from most of the models even 5 days out which is rare. Add the EURO to the mix and it too ends up south of Jamaica in 5 days. The UKMET is the only one of the respectable models that goes north of the Caribbean ... only just.

the fact that the two top best models are showing a Caribbean track (GFS and EURO)is also a reason for my model showing what it does

Quoting louisianaweatherguy:hmmm... the race for Isaac... lol in my opinion I think 95L will get it because of how close it is to land and looking at the spin it's gained over the last several frames....

kinda has me worried a lil

Yeah everyone is so preoccupied with an invest out in the Atlantic we could have a developing system right on our doorstep

No not another Fredrick.I remember him well was 13 at the time and was scared to death.I pray wherever one goes that everyone will be prepared this year.As the saying goes it only takes one to make for a bad season.

Are we seriously talking about wheither an invest with a 20% chance will beat out the invest with a 70% chance? I will bet my rediculous portion of crow that 94L will by far easily make it to TD and TS before 95L. 94L has way better organization, all it needs is a little more convection and we have TD 9. JMO though.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:Its possible one of those things happen, but not both. If this goes to the Caribbean, it will be weak, at least until it gets to the Gulf/far west Caribbean. If it is to become a major quickly like he suggests it has to go north.

I was think maybe you are right track I was following on the lines of the GFS and the TVCN and I only put the intensity that high due to what the SHIPS was showing that is all there is no bias to it

Quoting HurricaneDean07:Im to the point where Im ignoring anyone that doesn't have something "Decent" to say...basically, wunderkid is about to meet my ignore list...

dude look this is decent I am curently thinking that I am wrong with my model but I am not being bias with it track was just due to the GFS and TVCN and intensity was due to the SHIPS I don't think this will play out exactly like this and I don't think intensity will be this high ok