The better the Commissioners Office does with the arbitrator in the Alex Rodriguez case, the worse the Yankees’ 2014 team will probably be.

Think of it this way: If Fredric Horowitz honors all or most of the 211-game suspension imposed by Bud Selig, then all or most of Rodriguez’s salary will vanish from the books for the 2014 season. That provides essentially the only way for the Yankees to get under $189 million for next season, but not by so much they could afford to address their remaining problems well.

But if the arbitrator goes light on A-Rod — and the lightest would probably be 50 games — then most of his salary would remain on the 2014 books and there would be just about no way the Yankees could get under $189 million. And once that is a reality, they may as well spend what they have to in order to, say, land Masahiro Tanaka (if he is ever posted) and sign perhaps Fernando Rodney to close.

Because as one member of the organization said to me, “We either have to be under $189 million or up over $200 million or more. Think how dumb it would look if we worked for a few years to get under $189 million and we didn’t and we were at like $192 million and just missed. Either we go under or way over.”

Let’s do some math to see if we can make this clearer:

At this moment, the Yankees are at roughly $209 million if you count the not yet official contracts of Brian Roberts and Matt Thornton; the approximately $11 million each team is assessed for items such as insurance and pension; the approximately $15 million their arbitration cases will cost; and the $5 million or so each team budgets for in-season call-ups and bonuses reached.

If you subtract all of A-Rod’s charge toward the 2014 cap ($27.5 million), then the Yanks would be at $181.5 million. If they get to that point, they almost certainly will follow through and go for the $189 million goal — and what they believe will be about $100 million in savings the next three years.

But that means just $8.5 million in wiggle room to add a starter, late-game reliever and righty-swinging bat that can help Kelly Johnson at third in Rodriguez’s absence. That promotes smaller moves such as (my speculation here) gambling the health-challenged Scott Baker can help the rotation and Andrew Bailey can help the pen, and that the near-minimum wage Eduardo Nunez can be a third-base complement to Johnson.

The Yankees could find some more dough. Perhaps a suitor would take some $3 million of the $6.5 million owed Ichiro Suzuki. The Yanks can go with Austin Romine or J.R. Murphy as the backup catcher and deal Francisco Cervelli, though that would save only roughly $500,000 — the difference between the expected salaries of Cervelli or Romine/Murphy.

To save more, the Yankees would have to do cut-your-nose-to-spite-your-face maneuvers. Maybe Alfonso Soriano (who counts $4 million toward the tax payroll) would waive his no-trade clause, but the Yankees would lose one of their few meaningful righty bats. Brett Gardner (due about $5 million via arbitration) definitely has a market, but with age in the outfield he has great value to the Yanks, as well.

Decision in January

So, you see, even this late into the offseason, why the Yanks would want clarity as soon as possible on just what they owe A-Rod. And when will they know that?

Reply briefs in the arbitration are due Saturday, and so resolution before January remains unlikely. My guess would be Jan. 3 or Jan. 13. Here is why: The Hall of Fame announcement is Wednesday, Jan. 8 and both the Commissioners Office and the Players Association would probably ask Horowitz to be respectful not to overwhelm such a special moment with a Rodriguez announcement.

Jan. 3 is a Friday, so it would give an entire weekend and a few days into the following week to get through the initial waves of Rodriguez coverage. However, since Rodriguez almost certainly will then amp up his court cases, the safest route not to trample on the Hall would be to wait until the Monday after the new members are announced before Horowitz issues his ruling. That would be Jan. 13.

Time for Tanaka

And this is where Tanaka and A-Rod cross. The new posting policy is bad for the Yankees because under the old system huge posting fees to win exclusive negotiating rights were not counted toward the luxury tax and artificially lowered the salary for the player, which is taxed. The posting fee is lower now and any team willing to pay the top offer (which for Tanaka would be $20 million) can negotiate with the righty, which will greatly increase his salary — six years at $120 million or more is now possible or at least $20 million annually toward the luxury-tax payroll.

The only positive for the Yankees is how long it took for MLB and Japan to reach agreement on a new posting system and now this delay as Rakuten decides whether to post Tanaka. If this all had gone smoothly and Tanaka was posted on Nov. 1 or even Dec. 1, there would be the standard one-month period to reach an agreement and there would have been no way for the Yankees to know how much of A-Rod’s salary they were obligated to in 2014.

Now, if Tanaka is to be posted, it will almost certainly come within the month the Yankees know for certain about Rodriguez, which would allow them to make more of an informed decision how much they could offer the righty. Some Yankees officials have believed for a while Rakuten will not post Tanaka under this new system that pays Japanese teams considerably less to post their best players. If that is the case — with or without Rodriguez’s money — the Yanks will scramble. Because they have shown no affinity for the top three starters available (Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana). In that scenario, they might have to use Gardner and prospects in a trade to try to land someone such as Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey.

Which option would be best for the Yankees?

Here come the crystal balls...Lets see...the Yankees haven't finalized the 2014 roster and they already bought the championship or they will stink up the league. They have lost players that cost money to replace, but when they go out and replace these guys some of you start the whining $$$$$ who cares if they go over 189 and get spanked..they were ready to put up the 20 million and a new contract for Tanaka right?....just put a good team on the field next year.

They will be going over the luxury threshold as they always overspend and try to buy championships. Shame on all you yankit fans for supporting this. It's ruining the great game of baseball. Stop being selfish frontrunners, show some nuts and demand a cap!

How can a $200 million team be this bad! So many holes from an accumulation of bad contract decisions and they still don't have a dominant starting pitcher or dominant closer, not to mention holes in the infield and injury returning players that present an accumulation of risks. With so many returning injured players you have to wonder what this team is going to look like mid season. All of this is a sum total of bad decisions over the years and a terrible farm system. NY sports in general is hard to watch these days.

Yanks really did well this off season with McCann, Beltran, Soriano, Ellsbury to start the lineup signing Brian Roberts at 2b even can use Soriano at 2b..Keeping Gardner was good, our lineup is better than Boston when healthy, now its time to buy pitching to help Sabathia, Nova ,Kuroda, i'll propose Ubaldo Jimenez and if we gonna spend Arod's money get Cliff Lee and invite Johan Santana to spring training as our Freddy Garcia backup type. Get Fernando Rodney to close, keep Robertson as 8th inning relief we ready.

@Getta Lyfe Lets look back and see how many years the Yankees actually didn't and really don't use the farm system. Yes they pulled 8-9 guys out of it over the years that were fantastic players, but overall they have used it for trade development.

@USMCBXBomber Hey bomber, YOU DON'T GET IT. It's attitudes like yours that got them to sign A-Rod in the first place. They would have been way better off today if they never showed him the money to begin with. EVER.

@Pete Lincoln Not any better then last years team?? Beltran, Ellsburry, McCann, K. Johnson, and Brian Roberts. Replacing Overbay, J.Nix, Youkilis, Cano and Stewart. Lost one big bat and gained three. Plus they added more speed on the bases and in the field.

@Pete Lincoln Pete I am not a Yankee fan but I think that they will be a playoff team with the additions they have made to date. Ellsbury, McCann & Beltran will transform that lineup. You will have Tex back and Soriano was a monster after he was acquired last year. Sabbathia will not be anywhere near as bad as he was last year and Nova has great stuff that he is now harnessing. Pineda is fully healthy and was an outstanding pitcher before getting hurt. Most pitchers these days coming back from Tommy John throw better than before. Kuroda was still throwing hard at year end. He just got tired. The bullpen needs shoring up. If they get Tanaka, watch out.

@King JJimenez? are you sure you wanna sign on for 5-6 yrs at 18-20 million of a pitcher whose mechanics are so bad that little league recently passed on a chance to have him give clinics to youngsters?