NFL Standings After Week 13

Due to time constraints I’ll be a bit more brief perhaps on the analysis part, but I wanted to get the current standings posted as per my Tuesday norm. Please note that I am going to pseudo-list AFC teams with 7 losses as alive for now because last week’s games (and the remaining difficult schedule for Jacksonville) make it more likely that the 6th seed is a 9-7 team (I won’t say likely; just more likely) though frankly neither 5-7 is well positioned to win the multi-way tie they would likely be in. But if nothing else they could factor in being a catalyst for another team getting in by changing the tiebreaking dynamics (ie taking a head-to-head out of the equation). Essentially, it appears the AFC could boil down to still having a number of scenarios on the table late in the season, while the NFC is starting to look more orderly except for the East division race. Anyhow, here are the standings starting with the AFC:

The 2 game losing streak more critically Sunday’s loss to Miami puts the Patriots losing the East back into play though my working assumption is they will hold on. However if they lost their remaining game with Buffalo, Jacksonville, or Houston they would concede tiebreaking advantage to Miami at 10-6. The Jets are in worse shape here because they got swept by the Dolphins. As far as the wildcard is concerned Denver is obviously in good shape being 2 games above the fray with only 4 remaining. Jacksonville is a game up and they still only have the 2 losses in conference games but they have a hard finishing schedule with the Dolphins, Colts, and Patriots all remaining. If their only loss is the Colts game (or the Browns game) I think they are safely in, but losing to a team they could be tied with at 10-6 would obviously be more problematic, as most certainly losing two games and dropping to 9-7 would be. Of the 6-6 teams Miami is again in good position winning out would be an 8-4 conference record and involve beating Jacksonville. Baltimore is also in good position also only having 4 conference losses. Pittsburgh has 5 conference losses but replacing a 4 game losing streak with a 4 game winning streak would involve knocking the Ravens and Dolphins behind them. The Jets are in the mix as well with 5 conference losses but don’t have as much control over the teams they are scrapping with. I left the Titans and Texans in the list this week but Tennessee would have a 5-7 conference record, Houston 6-6, and neither can win a tie with Jacksonville (keeping in mind that division ties are paramount) so they are pretty much dead.

Basically this would seem to boil down to the Vikings and Cardinals having their divisions (as obviously does the Saints) so its 4 teams for 3 spots amongst the 3 East teams and Green Bay. Atlanta is alive but needs to win out and get some help. Dallas is still scored #1 in the East because they beat the Eagles in the sole matchup to date, but they have now been swept by the Giants and have a head-to-head loss to the Packers so they could be in serious trouble if they lost the 2nd Eagles game. The Giants are a game behind the other teams but they play Philly this coming Sunday night and that game is huge for them. Everyone in this group has only 2 or 3 conference losses so its going to come down to the remaining head-to-head games and avoiding the dumb loss.

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