“In order to meet the government’s 30-bcm target, up to 725 additional wells are needed by 2020 on top of the nearly 700 new wells.

“This will double the amount of investment needed in the base-case drilling plan. The required well number could be larger if well productivity degrades. This is a mammoth task for the Chinese national oil companies.”

Dr Yang added: “The speed of shale development will impact global gas markets. Considering the impact of shale gas production on domestic demand, the 2020 13-bcm ‘gap’ will have to be filled by imports, in particular LNG.