3

Super Bowl XLVI Gambling: Continued love for Giants may drop line to 2.5

The game began as Pats minus-3.5. I think it was 12 minutes, no joke, before it was Pats minus-3. And for the past two weeks it's been sitting there, for the most part, with books choosing to move the cost of the bet (from New York plus-3, minus-110 to plus-3, minus-120 to plus-3, minus-125), rather than move off the three. This week on my podcast Jay Kornegay, a bookmaker at the Las Vegas Hotel, told me, "I am hoping to wait until the weekend before going to that 2.5."

NBA Handicapping: San Antonio Spurs starting to play better defense

Article discussing San Antonio's recent defensive improvements. Over the last three games, the Spurs have held teams to 73, 91 81 and 91 in regulation (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS). The Spurs play host to Oklahoma City on Saturday. In the first meeting, the Thunder shot 51% from the floor en route to a 108-96 victory.

The Spurs have limited opponents to an average of 86 points and 43.2 field goal shooting after permitting an average of 96.4 points and 46.3 percent in the first 18 games of the season.

Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet Pick: Tom Brady pass attempts UNDER 39.5

I think there is some value with this prop in most game scenarios. The only one that doesn't lend itself to Brady tossing 40 or more passes is if the Giants get up big early and the Patriots are forced to throw the entire game. In any tight game, or if the Pats get the big lead, the likelihood of Brady throwing 40 times is diminished. Just based on the season numbers, Brady threw 40 or more passes in the first three games of the season, then did so just three times over the final 13 games of the regular season and did not in either playoff game. I look for New England to do its best to run the ball as well in order to slow down the Giants’ pass rush.

Super Bowl XLVI Gambling: Public supports the Giants, big bets made on the Patriots

Las Vegas gears up for Super Bowl XLVI weekend. According to LVH oddsmaker Jay Kornegay, 62% of the tickets have come in on the New York Giants but the bigger bets have been on the New England Patriots.

“This creates so much traffic. It’s the biggest and most important week for Las Vegas in my eyes,” he said. “It’s about more than just the game anymore; it’s coming here to experience the whole weekend. From the Hoover Dam to the Strip, everybody benefits.”

“About 62 percent of our tickets are on the Giants so far. But the bigger plays have been on the Patriots,” Kornegay said. “This is the one event that the public, small money outweighs the sharp, big money.”

Super Bowl XLVI Gambling Preview: High scoring affair on the horizon

I’m not in agreement with the recent downward move on the Super Bowl total; now at 54 and even 53 at Pinnacle. While many are pointing out that seven of the last eight Super Bowls lined at 46.5 points or higher have gone under the total, I note that the last three Super Bowls all had at least 47 points scored including last year’s 31-25 Green Bay win over Pittsburgh (a side winner for us). The Saints beat the Colts in 2009 as a touchdown underdog, 31-17 (a side winner for us), but the game finished under the posted total of 56.5 points.

Like that contest, Super Bowl XLVI has two top quarterbacks that are supremely skilled, polished, poised and precise in their passing and play. Going against suspect secondaries on both sides in perfect conditions should result in plenty of big plays in the passing game. The linesmaker is also projecting big passing days by both Eli Manning and Tom Brady, with over/under passing yards posted at 312 and 323 respectively. Both teams will spread the field with their talented receivers and take advantage of two poor pass defenses. Each quarterback is also very comfortable and efficient operating the no-huddle offense. Read more

Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet Pick: Will each team have the lead in the first half?

Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet
Will each team have the lead in the first half?
Recommendation: Yes +105 (Greek)

In what figures to be a back and forth contest from the outset, the plus end of this prop bet is especially attractive. There’s a strong possibility that this game could see each of these teams have the lead in the first two series. It’s interesting to note that six of the eight Patriots away games this season have seen each team have a lead in the first half. That’s quite a contrast from their 10 home games in which only once did both teams have the first half lead. The drastic difference in their home-road performances adds a very positive angle to this play. Super Bowls the last six years have seen this prop have streaky results going 3-0 from 2006-08 and 0-3 from 2009-11. For this prop play, it’s helpful to have a first quarter field goal by one side so the team scores don’t run parallel and the Patriots have had a first quarter field goal in eight of their last 10. Since these offenses are more than capable of responding to a score, this game should see each team have the lead at some point in the first Read more

NBA Handicapping: New York Knicks push pace and find offensive stride

We cashed our Eastern Conference O/U Game of the Month to close out January and followed it up with another 20* O/U Game of the Month winner last night when the Bulls beat the Knicks 105-102. That’s back-to-back top-play 20* Big Drive winners on Knicks games over the total after they pounded the Pistons in their previous game 113-86. Both games went over the posted total by at least 15 points. With Carmelo Anthony out of the lineup, the Knicks pushed the pace in a pair of losses before the last two games, and ‘Melo scored 25 and 26 points in his return the past two games as New York opened up their offense, hit more shots and pushed the pace. The Pistons were the perfect opponent to appease the restless New York fans, and despite yesterday’s loss to the Bulls, New York is a team worth riding over the total with their sub-par defense and more open offense.

Here is my game write-up of the Knicks-Pistons game provided to clients earlier this week. Recent play, insightful information and positive pointspread prognosis led us to another over the total Big Drive winner.

ESPN's Chad Millman did a recent podcast with LVH oddsmaker Jay Kornegay in which they discussed Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bets. Kornegay explains the history of the famous Will There Be Three Straight Scores? prop. He also said a safety and/or overtime are two things the books do not want to occur. Worth a listen.

Sammy P hits the ice with one play circled on his NHL card tonight! Don't miss out on his terrific NHL run! This monster 20* Power Play Total is yours for only $20; a guaranteed winner or his next selection is on the house!

Teddy has delivered back-2-back perfect sweeps, 5-0 over the past two days. His college hoops is scorching hot, riding an 82% run over the past ten days. Cash in on $20 Tuesday with this NIT on ESPN Final Four winner tonight, another right side cash from this red hot capper! This play must produce a profit or you will receive his next report at no additional charge.

Rob Veno has posted +95.08 units of profit since the start of 2013 and for Tuesday College Inisder Tournament action he checks in with a 10* NIT Semifinal Game Best Bet. Rob's play is just $20 and must win or you receive his next CBB report at no additional cost.

Fresh off a perfect 2-0 NBA sweep last night, Ian Cameron and his clients are in the midst of an epic 56-32 run for 64% winning action in the NBA since the start of December all part of a tremendous +17.3 units of profit in the NBA this season. He is ready to deliver more winning action in pro hoops tonight isolating a single rock solid 10* NBA Play Of The Day. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $20 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next hoops report is free.

Ian and his clients have been burning up the NHL ice enjoying a strong 50-36 58% streak banking +12.3 units of profit since the middle of January including cashing in three of his last four NHL plays. He is ready to continue his winning ways on the ice tonight with a rock solid side & total combo in one of tonight's games with his 10* NHL Side & Total 2-Pack. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $20 and it is guaranteed to produce a net profit or his next NHL Hockey report is free.