August crop forecasts tend to underestimate

Trying to forecast final production when the crop is still growing is like shooting at a fast-moving target.

Statistics Canada planned to release its first projection of Canada’s 2017 crop on Aug. 31, after this column was written. We’ll have full same-day coverage on our website and also in next week’s paper.

The forecast, which is an assessment of production potential as of July, is based on a farmer survey in late July and early August.