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Turkey’s economy shrank in third quarter amid temporary political turmoil and falling tourism revenues. The contractions on the expenditure side were mirrored by declines on the production side. We revise our growth forecast to 2.1 percent for 2016 ... Подробнее +Turkey’s economy shrank in third quarter amid temporary political turmoil and falling tourism revenues. The contractions on the expenditure side were mirrored by declines on the production side. We revise our growth forecast to 2.1 percent for 2016 because recovery in fourth quarter was weaker than envisaged earlier. Inflation surged by 1.5 pps to 8.5 percent in December. The current account deficit widened in fourth due to worsening services balance. Portfolio outflows from the bond market accelerated in fourth quarter due to domestic and external factors. The banking sector roll-over rate has fallen since June.The rapid Lira depreciation and its likely impact on inflation is leading the Central Bank to increase interest rates. Fiscal policy is providing considerable stimulus to growth. Growth is expected to recover to 2.7 percent in 2017 thanks to improving net exports.This is likely to constrain domestic demand in the near future but have positive effects in the medium-term. Moreover, falling banking sector roll-over rates may limit credit growth.
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