An election to decide on her replacement will be held on May 9, and it could see profound changes in South Korean foreign policy.

According to opinion polls, the most likely person to be elected president is opposition leader Moon Jae-in, of the liberal Democratic Party of Korea. A civil rights lawyer (and former Special Forces paratrooper during his military service), Moon was the campaign manager and chief of staff for his friend and political mentor, former president Roh Mu-hyun (February 2003 to March 2004 and May 2004 to February 2008).

A year after he left office, Roh died by jumping off a mountain cliff; his brother was indicted for corruption, and he and other members of his family had been under investigation.

A broad mandate

Moon’s potential mandate will encompass his calls for reform of conglomerates, known in South Korea as chaebol. The head of the biggest of these conglomerates Lee Jae-yong was arrested in February for allegedly paying millions of dollars in bribes to Park’s friend and key player in the scandal Choi Soon-sil, who is also in custody.

Moon will need to address the nation’s worsening economic inequality, as well as employment insecurity and subsequent cost-of-living pressures that lay behind the public outrage and mass demonstrations which led to Park’s ousting.

In foreign affairs, Moon may seek to renegotiate the deal made by Park’s government at the end of 2015 with Japan, which promised compensation payments for the wartime abuse of Korean women as sex slaves (euphemistically known as “comfort women”). The deal is already under strain, as Japan’s ambassador to South Korea was recalled in February over a statue commemorating the sex slaves being placed outside the Japanese consulate in Busan. Similar statues have since appeared in other cities around the world.

Regional implications

Under the oppressive rule of its authoritarian leader Kim Jong-un, North Korea would certainly exploit Moon’s ambivalent position on THAAD. Along with a rowdy anti-THAAD protest movement in South Korea, Kim could press for him to withdraw it as a precondition for any chance of resuming improved relations.

China has already taken a hostile posture towards South Korea over THAAD. Various products and services from the country, including highly popular television dramas and tours by K-pop performers have been banned; boycotts by Chinese tourists are being encouraged; and stores run in China by the chaebol Lotte have been closed for “safety inspections”. South Korea has protested these actions to the World Trade Organization.

Moon is thus already under immense pressure from China, which poses a dire threat to any prospect of the economic recovery he hopes to restore. Should he become president, Moon will certainly head off promptly to Beijing in an attempt to assuage China’s concerns.

North Korean concerns

On his first trip to Asia – covering Japan, South Korea and China – North Korea’s missile threat was US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s dominant concern. Tillerson declared in Tokyo and Seoul that past US policy towards North Korea had failed, and a “new approach” was needed.

But despite US President Donald Trump’s recent condemnation of North Korea “acting very, very badly”, his administration is confronted with the same dilemma faced by all others since armistice was declared in the Korean War in 1953.

Any military action to punish North Korea risks escalation into a massively destructive war that could engulf South Korea and Japan, and threaten the stability of the Asia-Pacific region and the global economy. While the DPRK would face its own destruction in such a scenario, it has long calculated that the US would not risk such an escalation.

A withdrawal of THAAD from South Korea would be a clear strategic gain for North Korea, China, and Russia. To compensate, the United States would have no alternative but to deploy it to Japan, something Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would be more than happy with.

Beyond her own personal humiliation, the ramifications of Park’s fall are already reverberating from domestic South Korean politics into the fraught geopolitics of Northeast Asia.

Craig Mark does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

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