Doing the math

Ã¢â‚¬Å“As to todayÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s game, the old baseball adage is that every team is going to win fifty, and lose fifty, and itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s the other 62 that determine your season.Ã¢â‚¬?

Yes, everyone listening to the game heard Howie Rose say that.

I believe the math needs to be adjusted, and from the new equation you will see how important games are in April and May.

Instead of every team winning and losing 50 games, try 60 games. Even the best team will lose 60 and the worst should win 60. That’s 120 games out of 162. That leaves 42 more games.

But, the truth is to be in contention a team should win at least 90 games. I know the Cardinals won with less last season, but if you check most playoff teams win at least 90 games.

That’s another 30 wins you add to the original 60. That’s 90 wins, 60 losses, leaving 12 games in the balance to decide a pennant. If you want to make 90 wins into 88, go ahead, but the point is the same.

There are roughly 12 to 14 games that can go either way, and these are the games that determine who gets in. That’s why games in April are as important as those in August and September.

So, when your team kicks one away or steals one, that’s important stuff. That’s why when you look at the three games they blew to the Braves earlier matter.

John Delcos enters his third season covering the Mets for The Journal News after eight seasons on the Yankees beat. Prior to coming to New York, John covered the Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Browns and Cleveland Indians.

2 Comments

David

I think this is a very confused post. There are two types of games that “make a difference.”

The first type, relevant in the quotation and in the games will blew against the braves, are the games that actually can go either way. Most games are clearly won or clearly lost, and one play here or there won’t change that.

The majority of this post is talking about the games that differentiate playoff teams from elite teams. Those games, if anything, come out of the games that are blowouts, and our losses to the Braves really won’t affect that.