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First take: Did Alibaba IPO mark a top for stocks?

There's an old saying on Wall Street that nobody rings a bell at a market top. But the eight Alibaba customers that rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange last Friday -- the day the Chinese

There's an old saying on Wall Street that nobody rings a bell at a market top. But the eight Alibaba customers who rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange last Friday — the day the Chinese e-commerce giant became a public company and sold more than 320 million shares of stock to BABA-crazed investors amid great fanfare and hype — might have done just that.

It could be just a crazy coincidence. Or just another one of those unexplainable, inexplicably bad weeks on Wall Street (the broad market has tumbled 2.2% this week, including a messy 1.6% wipeout Thursday). Or just a blip, a fleeting bout of profit-taking, a brief detour to higher highs for the 5½-year-old Wall Street bull.

But BABA-mania could, in hindsight, also be remembered as the day the bull died.

There is one Wall Street statistic — amid a sea of statistics — that is indisputable: The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index peaked last Friday morning, just hours before Alibaba's energetic and charismatic top executive, Jack Ma, sold the first share of the coveted stock at a 36% premium to its $68 offering price. Alibaba shares popped 38% to $93.89 on its first day of trading. But like the U.S. stock market, BABA also peaked during the day last Friday at $99.70. And after Thursday's nearly 2% slide to $88.92, it's now nearly 11% below Friday's tippy-top price.

Too much hype on Wall Street, too much fawning over a single stock, even one with the alleged pedigree of Ma's $219.2-billion-baby Alibaba, and too much greed can easily be interpreted as a warning sign. It can be signaling that things are as good as they can get, that the rocket fuel known as irrational exuberance has been spent. In short, that the market's best days, at least for the time being, are behind it.

"People waited in line to buy Alibaba because they think CEO Jack Ma is the smartest man in the world," says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro. "Hey, everybody — the guy you think is the smartest man in the world thinks it's a good time to sell stocks. And you want to buy? Really?"

Still, Luskin doesn't think the Alibaba-all-the-time storyline caused a market top. Instead, he says the booming-BABA narrative "signaled that a correction was long overdue."

Founder and Executive Chairman of Alibaba Group Jack Ma rings a bell to celebrate as the Alibaba stock goes live during the company's initial price offering at the New York Stock Exchange on Sept. 19.(Photo: Andrew Burton, Getty Images)

In the pecking order of stock market tops, there are short-term tops. And "THE" top. And right now Wall Street is vigorously debating what kind, if any, Friday's latest market peak turns out to be.

Luskin, for one, doesn't think Alibaba marks a major top, the one that leads to a full-fledged bear-market drop of 20% or more.

"The bears have been (wrongly) calling tops in the bull market since it began," Yardeni tells USA TODAY. "One day, it will end. But calling a top based on a big IPO is probably the weakest argument the bears have made so far."

While the market isn't cheap, corporate earnings are still growing solidly, which should keep the bull alive, Yardeni says. Still, the S&P 500 took out his year-end price target of 2014 on Friday.

"That may be the top for this year, but the market should move sideways with some volatility over the rest of the year before resuming its climb next year," Yardeni predicts.

But stocks, Doll points out, have also been hurt this week by signs of slowing growth in Europe and China, as well as rising geopolitical risks around the globe. Is that enough to spawn a short-term top? "Yessir," says Doll.

But bull markets "don't die," Doll argues. "Bull markets end when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to punish inflation or you get an exogenous shock, like a 30% rise in the price of oil overnight. Bulls don't end from old age or high valuations."

History, however, will let everybody on Wall Street and Main Street know if this bull ended on the day of the the biggest IPO the world has ever seen.

Media and fans of Alibaba Group wait outside the New York Stock Exchange on Sept. 19 while executives of the company leave the building after the company's initial public offering.(Photo: Andrew Burton, Getty Images)