And in the meantime, Nintendo is going to have to fight a growing market of Apple iPhone/iPod touch/iPad and Google Android mobile games, which should continue to improve and continue to take market share.

Nintendo said the 3DS would ship in Japan next Feb. 26, missing the holiday season, we learn via a research note from Lazard Capital's Colin Sebastian. (It will launch in North America and Europe in March.)

As a result, Nintendo slashed its guidance, Sebastian notes.

Nintendo now only expects to sell 23.5 million DS devices this fiscal year, down from its previous estimate of 30 million. (Nintendo's fiscal year ends in March.) Nintendo also trimmed its Wii sales forecast to 17.5 million devices, down from 18 million.

"More important for Nintendo, as smartphones and connected tablets gain share in the casual and handheld game market, the 3DS will offer consumers a unique and differentiated experience combined with Nintendo’s historically strong first-party software lineup (e.g., Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, etc.)," Sebastian writes.

"Nonetheless, we continue to believe that the iPhone and Android devices will continue to gain market share in handheld gaming."