May 17, 2016

Mrs. Clinton generally leads Mr. Trump by less in online surveys. On balance, though, Mr. Trump has about 2.5 more points in live-interview polls. He’s actually earning a smaller share of the vote in online surveys than in the live-interview polls — the exact opposite of what one might expect if he were being hurt by social desirability bias in live-interview polls.

So what’s going on? The main difference between the online and live-interview polls is there are vastly more undecided voters in the online surveys. In the live-interview surveys, there are correspondingly more supporters of Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump, with Mrs. Clinton apparently gaining slightly more ground....

Mr. Trump recently offered a taste of his coming line of attack on the campaign trail in Oregon, where he praised Mr. Sanders for highlighting Mrs. Clinton’s ties to the country’s largest financial institutions. “She’s totally controlled by Wall Street,” Mr. Trump said, echoing a Sanders rallying cry.

Roger J. Stone Jr., a longtime adviser to Mr. Trump, said he expected the presumptive Republican nominee to grow aggressive on the banks. “Who’s been tougher on bankers than Donald Trump?” asked Mr. Stone, suggesting Mr. Trump could appeal to some of Mr. Sanders’s supporters. “He’s taken them to the cleaners. I think he has a healthy skepticism and deep knowledge of bankers and how they operate. He’s going to be tough on Wall Street.” Mr. Trump has said that “the hedge fund guys are getting away with murder.”

19 comments:

Never Trumpers should look at these numbers. He's getting these numbers depite a huge contingent of Repubs saying they wont vote for him. if those same peopel threw their votes behind him, what would his numbers look like?

This is an exciting election. I think Trump should come out and say he will take public financing, you know, the way Obama lied and said he was going to, but mean it. Let Hillary twist on a spit over the flames of angry Bernie supporters when she says, "Sorry kids, but the grown ups that I sold out to say I can't!"

This proves Betteridge's law of headlines. That is, "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."

By comparing actual primary voting results with online and traditional polls, we know traditional polling is mainly accurate and online polling significantly overstates Trump's support. A drought of expensive, traditional polling since Trump secured the nomination means he now falsely looks more competitive. The "social desirability" theory plays into the feelings journalists likely have towards Trump, but there is virtually zero polling or voting evidence to support it. Are the Trump supporters you know shy about their support?

In truth, the dynamics of the race have not suddenly changed in Trump's favor. Hillary's lead is still there, but there is plenty of time for Trump to turn that around.

@ sinz52 You are free to have all the problems with Trump you wish, but I must take a small exception to your bullet points. 1. Trump is not an ignoramus. He's a smart guy who has held his own in the business world with his winners outnumbering his losers. Here is his position page. It is not all encompassing, but a good start. One does not need to have nuts and bolts knowledge of issues to set goals and objectives. Can Jeff Immelt of GE design and build a jet engine? No, but he knows how to put together an organization that can. That's what CEOs do.2. What proof do you have that he is unprincipled? Sure he changes some positions and he adapts to his audience. If you read Scott Adams you will see that he is convinced that these are signifiers of Trump understanding the principles of persuasion. Again a job CEOs do.3. See his position page. I see nothing that is vaguely fascist there. Because you don't agree with him does not mean his ideas are "looney-tunes".4. What appeals has he made to bigots, etc.? Some of his supporters may fit your description, but no more so than the looney lefties that support Bernie and Hillary. Hillary actually puts totalitarian tactics into use (see the NV convention reference on this blog).

You don't like the guy. Okay. I can buy that. I do not doubt that your dislike is visceral. You bullet points certainly indicate that your dislike is not rational.

Republicans should own the crony capitalism issue. Given that that is half Sander's message and all of the realistic part, many Sanders supporters should be ripe for the picking. As for Sanders' other issues and the possibility of him backing Trump, that would be in response to the non-Republican aspects of The Donald.

Trump has indeed taken banks to the cleaners. Four bankruptcies is one way to do that.

I wonder what banker would agree to enter a room in which Donald Trump sat, wanting to make a "deal." We might know a bit more about Trump's own credit worthiness, if he released his last ten years' tax returns.

In-person interviews are too costly to use with large sample sizes; also, it's difficult to obtain representative samples to begin with and impossible if/when too many in the sample decline to be interviewed.

And, yes, considering that Trump and his supporters have been derided as racist, bigoted, ignorant (etc.) it's surely possible that some who will vote for Trump can be expected not to reveal that in an interview.

Do you know the outcome of the bankruptcies? Who took how big a hair cut? Were the conditions satisfactory to both sides? You do realize that it is likely that Trump took the biggest hit on his bankruptcies since he was in the equity position. It is unlikely the banks got taken to the cleaners. In fact "In New York, Donald Trump’s bankruptcy history is limited to the Plaza, where in 1993 he surrendered a 49 percent stake and control of the hotel’s operations to Citibank and five other lenders, as part of a bankruptcy plan approved in court." (From The Real Deal 4/29/16 by Will Parker). Ouch!

Since those bankruptcies you mention Trump has continued to complete projects most likely financed by the banks. Certainly it's not the Feds.

Tax returns. A straw man. Unless one is a CPA who specializes in real estate it is unlikely the average guy will be able to decipher them.