MacArthur is beating Lonegan in Monmouth University poll

WEST LONG BRANCH – Retired insurance businessman Tom MacArthur holds a double-digit lead over Tea Party favorite Steve Lonegan for the Republican nomination in New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District, according to a Monmouth University Poll released Thursday.

The 3rd District stretches from the banks of the Delaware River in Burlington County to the beaches of the Jersey Shore in Ocean County, crossing the Pine Barrens of both counties in between.

According to the poll, MacArthur, who has the backing of the Republican Party establishment has 46 percent of the vote among likely Republican voters to 35 percent for Lonegan, who was the GOP nominee in the special U.S. Senate election last October against Democrat Cory Booker.

Another 20 percent remain undecided in the June 3 primary election. MacArthur holds leads in the district's two counties. He is polling ahead of Lonegan 47 percent to 33 percent in Burlington County, and 45 percent to 36 percent in Ocean County, according to the poll.

The race has been characterized by particularly nasty attacks and the mudslinging has had an impact on voter opinions of the two candidates, but hasn't provided a clear advantage for either one, according to the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

"Tom MacArthur's credentials as a self-made, conservative businessman who will vote to repeal Obamacare are clearly resonating with Republican voters," said Chris Russell, a spokesman for the MacArthur campaign. "With strong endorsements from Congressman Jon Runyan (the Republican incumbent in the seat who is retiring from public service), the U.S Chamber of Commerce and more than 160 locally elected Republicans across Burlington and Ocean counties, momentum is on our side and the biggest field operation this district has ever seen will ensure we finish strong."

"The conservative candidate wins the GOP primary," said Tim Kelly, a spokesman for the Lonegan campaign. "Recent victories by conservatives in Nebraska and West Virginia reinforce this point. Steve Lonegan is the only conservative in this race and he will win this race."

Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said 1-in-5 Republican voters remain up for grabs in this race.

Although the Monmouth University Polling Institute used "a fairly broad likely voter model," tightening the model actually works to MacArthur's advantage and suggests his victory margin on June 3 could be even bigger in a low turnout race in which, for example, 25,000 voters came out to the polls, Murray said.

For Lonegan to narrow the gap, he needs to continue to raise questions about whether MacArthur is truly committed to repealing Obamacare in order to get Republican turnout as high as possible on June 3, he said.

The Monmouth University poll was conducted by telephone from Monday to Wednesday, sampling 505 registered Republicans who are likely to vote in the 3rd District primary in three weeks. The poll has a 4.4 percent margin of error.