District by district - Hawaii

Here’s a loss that would sting for national Democrats and President Obama.

Rep.
Charles Djou (R-Hawaii), who won a special election this past May with
less than 40 percent of the vote, currently leads Democrat Colleen
Hanabusa 45 percent to 41, with 12 percent of likely voters undecided,
according to The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

After
Hanabusa and ex-Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii) split the Democratic vote in
May, paving the way for Djou’s victory, Democrats were supposed to have
a fairly easy time taking this district back in the fall. But Djou is
proving to be a good candidate, and his favorables are above 60 percent
in an overwhelmingly Democratic district.

Djou has a solid
lead among male voters, but only leads by one point among females.
Hanabusa’s strength is among younger voters — she gets 60 percent of
their support — while voters aged 35-54 break for Djou. Voters 55 and
older are evenly split — 43 percent for Hanabusa and 43 percent for
Djou.

Obama also isn’t helping Hanabusa, even with his solid
approval numbers in the district. This is one of just two districts
where the president’s approval is net positive, with 64 percent of all
likely voters approving of the president. Among independents, Obama’s
approval is 57 percent.

A loss for Democrats here, in Obama’s home district and state, wouldn’t be a good omen for the party on election night.

And the party is spending to make sure that doesn’t happen. The DCCC has invested about $410,000 in this district.

The
Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 406 likely voters via the
telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.