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Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Apparently Tuesday's Intelligence rating was artificial. The show dropped by half to a disastrous 1.2 demo rating in its first airing in the new timeslot, not any better than what Hostages was doing for most of the fall. And just like that, it's done for. With incompatible comedies airing in the first two hours and two legitimate competitors, CBS may now have to move some kind of veteran show into this hour looking forward to next season.

NBC began its January run of The Blacklist at a little over 20% behind the show's fall finale rating after The Voice. We can debate how it performed relative to expectations, but either way it's still not an insignificant accomplishment for NBC to have a 10/9c drama that can hit this rating with an average lead-in. (That average lead-in was a special American Ninja Warrior (1.9).)

The biggest surprise to the positive was Fox's Almost Human, up by multiple tenths for the second straight week. If this show was on the brink of death coming into 2014, it shouldn't be anymore. And Sleepy Hollow was even in its first episode in over a month.

On ABC, it was a case of "Where was this number when I picked it last week?" as The Bachelor took a large post-premiere drop against a lot more broadcast competition. A week after major year-to-year growth for the premiere, this point was down two tenths vs. 2013's second episode. However, Castle was up at 10/9c, perhaps demonstrating that last week's football game affected it a lot more than it affected The Bachelor.

The CBS comedies How I Met Your Mother (3.0), 2 Broke Girls (2.7), Mike and Molly (2.4) and Mom (2.1) all came back atrelatively normal levels, bouncing back from weak showings to end 2013.

FULL TABLE:

Info

Show

Timeslot

True

A18-49

Skew

Last

LeLa

Rank

y2y

TLa

Ty2y

The Bachelor

2.3

37%

-15%

-0.4

n/a

2/2

-8%

-15%

-5%

2.2

Castle

1.9

27%

+12%

+0.2

-0.4

8/12

+0%

+12%

-3%

1.9

ABC:

-8%

-4%

How I Met Your Mother

3.0

44%

+11%

+0.3

n/a

7/13

-23%

+76%

-23%

2.6

2 Broke Girls

2.7

38%

+17%

+0.4

+0.3

2/13

-34%

+108%

-27%

2.2

Mike and Molly

2.4

31%

+9%

+0.2

+0.4

3/8

-31%

+118%

-41%

2.2

Mom

2.2

33%

+16%

+0.3

+0.2

4/13

n/a

+100%

-37%

2.0

Intelligence

1.2

25%

-50%

-1.2

-0.8

2/2

n/a

+20%

-50%

1.2

CBS:

+76%

-37%

American Ninja Warrior Special

1.9

44%

n/a

n/a

n/a

1/1

n/a

+90%

-22%

1.8

The Blacklist

2.5

34%

-22%

-0.7

-1.5

11/11

n/a

+127%

+56%

2.5

NBC:

+103%

-2%

Almost Human

2.0

37%

+11%

+0.2

n/a

3/8

n/a

+11%

-7%

1.8

Sleepy Hollow

2.2

43%

+0%

+0.0

+0.2

9/11

n/a

+175%

+5%

2.1

Fox:

+62%

-1%

Hart of Dixie

0.5

53%

+25%

+0.1

n/a

1/9

-17%

+150%

-23%

0.5

Beauty and the Beast

0.3

54%

+0%

+0.0

+0.1

1/9

n/a

+50%

-25%

0.3

CW:

+100%

-24%

Big5:

+46%

-15%

KEY (click to expand)

A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

21 comments:

Very eventful night:- Excellent night for Almost Human which hits high since timeslot premiere rating, does better than FOX's scripted average and looks better than ever for a renewal. Sleepy Hollow's modest performance for its own standards also makes it look better. Very very happy about this one.- Sleepy Hollow did well, but it's a bit disappointing that it's not higher considering how high it was in early fall and that yesterday didn't have to compete with the voice- No effect at all from the absence of the voice on the CBS Monday comedies. I think those are unimpressive numbers. I am happy The Crazy Ones scored higher than Mom and Mike and Molly last week. - Intelligence is dead. This is so sad. I really like the show. CBS will not solve this slot with a new show. The lead-in is horrible and incompatible and the competition is absolutely brutal. They will need to move an establishes show here IMO. They should move NCIS-LA here. I think that's what they should have done already, letting Intelligence remain on Tuesdays. Oh well. Poor Josh and Megan. I am really sad about this one- Ninja Warrior, for a filler, did amazing numbers. It's better than basically everything else on NBC, which is kind of sad, really.- The Blacklist did amazing regardless of how people spin the numbers. The whole point of exposing a new show to a lead-in is so that it can grow its own audience while taking advantage of the big lead-in. Of course the numbers would always be inflated by the big lead-in but what matters is that the standalone numbers are still pretty healthy!- ABC and the CW were uneventful for the most part, while the Bachelor hitting a series low against so little competition is surprising and potentially problematic for ABC (especially considering it has yet to face the olympics and later the voice!!)

Almost Human did great. With all the networks in originals, I expected it falls to around 1.5. And it raised. If it can keep it up, it could actually be in contention. But I seriously doubt it - goes on hiatus, then returns against Olympics and The Voice after it. Though, if Reilly is serious about year-round programming ... maybe it can get summer 2015 timeslot.

Intelligence quite opposite. I wouldn't blink at 40% loss of demo (weaker and less compatible lead-in + stronger and more cross-over competition + usual 2nd episode drop). And I said I expect it going Golden Boy trajectory anyway. But this embarrassment is Hostages trajectory, and good news only for The Good Wife. I hope CBS now realizes it's futile to put new shows against resiliant Castle and whichever Voice-fueled NBC drama in the slot. Perhaps next fall they'll move NCIS: LA (96 episodes after this season) to Mon 10 PM and give NCIS: New Orleans (or whatever procedural) strong and compatible NCIS lead-in?

I agree, I have no ideas for CBS at this point. Intelligence should have kept on Tuesdays and LA should have gone here as I was saying all along. The only option is Under the Dome but I think that's a short-sighted measure as it would be a huge step back in terms of summer penetration, not to mention the media blowback it would cause. I guess they can do Unforgettable but it will be only a stop-gap as you were saying.

I disagree that CBS should have left H50 on Mondays. It was clearly a weak option at this time last year. Two failures doesn't mean the move was bad, it means audiences don't like the new shows. Moving H50 to Fridays was one of the better moves this season. I expect CBS to move an older drama to Monday nights (NCIS: LA) and use NCIS to its advantage (the new NCIS series?).

Yeah the last few questions have made me realise that Spot is very good at setting lines and the good run I had early on was mainly down to luck. Also, with your recent bad luck I'm tempted to scrap my own opinions and just do the opposite of what you guess.

Yep, he's always ~spot on~! If it was anyone else running this game, and he was just a player, there'd be no competition for him! :) But that's also what makes the game so fun. I'm almost always divided between Under or Over because of the lines he sets.

Oh, and you should go up very easily doing that. 0 out of 4 since the year began! lol :D

I'm inclined to believe that the earth is officially salted when it comes to Mondays @ 10, and CBS is going to be in for quite a few struggles for awhile, if they ever course correct. That said, Intelligence also just wasn't all that...intelligent.

Astonishing drop for Intelligence. This was no place for a procedural. To a lesser extent, that Batchelor drop is a shocker - would've been shock of the week most weeks, but this time it's not even shock of the night.

Almost Human getting these numbers *should* end the idea that XF is coming back; I always thought that AH was the show most likely to need an XF cancellation to get renewed itself, and it's now *well* clear of recent XF numbers. Guessing that's a low in True for SH?

CBS made a huge unforced error by not letting Intelligence stay on Tuesday, and now they are paying the price. Another freshman drama dead in the water. The sad part is, if they quick pulled tonight's NCIS: LA episode and repeat last night's episode, they might get over 2.0. That's how unwatched yesterday's episode was. CBS's main problem the past few years is their reluctance to support newbies, and no time slot encapsulates that better than Tuesdays at 9. Why LA is still leading out of CBS's strongest drama four-and-a-half years on when they are shuffling deck chairs at 10 PM is beyond me.

Blacklist's fall was semi-disappointing. I know the lead-in effect is tough to measure, but losing almost a quarter of the audience is not a sign of strength. What NBC can hang its hat on is the Blacklist tends to have the highest DVR numbers imaginable. A lot of people will probably catch up the next couple of days.

I believe people creates some unrealistic expectations for The Blacklist. Remember that the show normal level PRE-FALL FINALE BOUNCE was around a 2.9/3.1. I don't think you should look at the 3.2 as the benchmark - 3.0 sounds way more accurate to me. Loosing basically 0.5 while loosing its monstrous lead-in is a huge accomplishment.

True was quite furious with the shows last night, particularly the 8pm. The CBS comedies all but Mom hitting True lows (except for the Mike and Molly episode in the sea of repeats nights) sounds right to me though, they should have bounced upwards with the voice out of the picture and they didn't.

I agree with you concerning X-Factor. There are multiples uses FOX can have for Almost Human now. Personally, I would keep it on Mondays right where it is while focusing on relaunching Wednesdays and Thursdays. Fridays after Bones is another option. Moving it to the Wednesday/Thursday relaunch plan is another option. Renewing it as spackle for when a new drama fails is another option. I don't see how cancellation suits them. Maybe... just maybe if Rake is a big hit they can away with it but I don't see how that benefits them. I have to say though that the biggest mystery FOX wise to me right now is what will air on the Monday at 8pm slot after Almost Human ends its 13 episode order. I am shocked there is no more chatter about this!

Mondays at 10pm slot is quite possibly the worst slot for any network not named NBC to launch a new drama, possibly seconded only by Thursdays at 8 and Sundays at 9 and 10, but even those are semi debatable. That's why I cringe with the idea of ABC moving Castle. They would find themselves in the same situation as CBS is.

They should have left Intelligence after NCIS to begin with and moved LA, I was saying that all along. As for H50, while it was under-performing early last fall and late last spring, I think its under-performance was exaggerated. The show bled from having a lot of compatibility with Revolution which was by then quite a strong option but during Winter and early spring/late fall it was pulling low 2s which was the normal performance for any CBS drama at the time anyway. The slow hasn't been properly recognized as one of the hardest slots currently on TV and H50 suffered a lot from a perception that it was a problem with the show instead of with the slot. The fact that it is so strong (for a Friday) certainly suggests that our perception was wrong last year. I am not saying the move shouldn't have happened, it certainly worked very well for Friday, but I am saying maybe there were other options.Moving CSI to Fridays at 9, keeping H50 Mondays at 10 and launching Hostages/Intelligence at Wednesdays at 10 following Minds lead-in and against limited drama competition would certainly be one that I think would have led to an overall higher result for CBS, for example (this isn't even how I would schedule, just giving an example)

Yeah, you're right about Almost Human. I thought it had more than 13 episodes, but nope, that's it. 24 premieres the first week of May, but what are they going to put there for the two months or so after AH finishes? For a network that typically has such limited real estate, particularly considering their ridiculous comedy merry-go-round and Bones' move to Fridays, having a black hole on their schedule like this is very peculiar.

They could extend Almost Human's episode order. Frankly, that's just what makes the most sense. But I think it's tricky because Almost Human is producing somewhere between its 11th and its 13th episode as we speak (last week's episode was the 10th produced episode, since FOX is airing them out of order). So that means that FOX is cutting it pretty close by not announcing an episode extension yet. It's possible it was extended and we aren't aware of it, but I find it very odd, especially because the TCAs would have been the perfect time to announce it.

Also, Kevin Reilly is on the record saying that Enlisted had to go to Fridays because they had no room for it elsewhere. It would look very bad to then have a black hole on the schedule for that long.

I am also curious concerning what will become of the Tuesday and Monday 8pm timeslots in the summer once Gang Related and 24 take over. I always assumed FOX would pair both but since they aren't, I wonder what will take the 8pm slots. Wayward Pines and something else?

There are a few realty shows Fox could put on Mondays if AH runs out of eps: Kitchen Nightmares and Hotel Hell come to mind (though I'm pretty sure now that Hotel Hell is getting "The Moment of Truth" treatment by getting a second season renewal but not coming back).