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Banjo Hitter: The Age of PECOTA

Who is the best player in baseball for each age group? PECOTA projections came out today, so let’s use the projected WARP totals for 2018 as our main guide while also leaving a little room for subjectivity when it seems necessary.

No teenager played in the majors last season, Julio Urias in 2016 was the only teenager to play in the majors during the past five seasons, and Bryce Harper in 2012 was the only teenage hitter to log at least 250 plate appearances in the majors during the past 20 seasons. So, for the age-19 spot I relied partly on BP’s just-released top 101 prospects list and partly on PECOTA. Both methods gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a slight edge over Fernando Tatis Jr. (Note: I’ve never written a sentence that made me feel older.)

This was an easy one. Ronald Acuna is the best prospect in baseball and PECOTA loves him too, already projecting the toolsy outfielder as an average big-league regular with 20-homer power and 20-steal speed if the Braves give him an extended opportunity this season. Acuna’s top three same-age comparable players are Byron Buxton, Mike Trout, and … Delmon Young. That really shows the whole spectrum of outcomes for a 20-year-old uber-prospect, but keep in mind that “Delmon Young” is forever going to ruin otherwise promising sets of comps for excellent prospects. That is his legacy.

This might be the trickiest age, because it’s the sweet spot featuring both elite-level prospects (Victor Robles, Gleyber Torres, Eloy Jimenez, Brendan Rodgers) and former stud prospects who’ve already impressed in brief big-league stints (Ozzie Albies, Rafael Devers, Julio Urias). Last season Urias snagged the age-20 spot, but then he blew out his arm. PECOTA still likes him a lot long term, but it’s hard to justify Urias as the best 21-year-old when he might not even pitch again until midseason. PECOTA sees Albies as the clear choice for 2018 value alone, projecting him as a three-WARP second baseman following a debut in which he hit .286/.354/.456 with eight steals in 57 games.

Honorable mention: PECOTA also likes Devers a lot, and he out-ranked Albies on last year’s top 101 before a similarly impressive 58-game debut, so there’s certainly an argument for the Red Sox third baseman here. Robles (Nationals), Torres (Yankees), and Jimenez (White Sox) rank second, third, and sixth on this year’s top 101, respectively, and among 21-year-old prospects PECOTA is also fond of Luis Urias (Padres) and Luiz Gohara (Braves).

Last season I picked Cody Bellinger as the best 21-year-old, but not before a bunch of debate stemming from zero of the candidates having any big-league experience, ultimately trusting PECOTA’s view that he was the most ready to make an impact in the majors. There is no longer any debate, as Bellinger hit .267/.352/.581 with 39 homers in 132 games to make his first All-Star team, win Rookie of the Year, and finish top 10 in the MVP balloting. His top same-age comp is now Giancarlo Stanton, so suffice it to say that PECOTA is still deeply in love.

Another repeat winner in his age group, Carlos Correa reached full-on superstar status last season and PECOTA projects him as one of MLB’s top 10 players for 2018. He’s on a Hall of Fame path. Shohei Ohtani hasn’t even started his MLB career yet, but PECOTA is a big believer. Not only does Ohtani project as a front-line starting pitcher, with a sub-3.50 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning, his hitting projection includes a .460 slugging percentage. I’ll stick with Correa’s established track record, but if Ohtani comes anywhere near his projections as a rookie there might actually be a debate for the age-24 spot next season.

“Nearly impossible” is how I described choosing between Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor for the age-23 spot last season and it hasn’t gotten any easier. Seager narrowly edged Lindor in WARP last season, 5.7 to 5.2, but PECOTA gives Lindor a slight edge for 2018 thanks to a better defensive projection and a belief that his power breakthrough last season is largely here to stay. I truly think this is a toss-up. Last season I trusted PECOTA and went with Sesger, so I’ll trust the projections again and go with Lindor, by the slimmest of margins.

Last season Bryce Harper joined Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Ken Griffey Jr. as the only players in the past 50 years to have multiple 1.000 OPS seasons through age 24, and now for his age-25 season PECOTA projects Harper as the third-best hitter in baseball behind only Mike Trout and Joey Votto. There is a ton of star power in this age group, and if you’re particularly fond of elite defense there’s even an argument to be made for someone other than Harper in this spot, but given what he’s already accomplished and what PECOTA expects from his bat in 2018 he’s still the choice here.

PECOTA projects Mike Trout as the best player in baseball. Again. He’s projected to lead MLB in slugging percentage and True Average while ranking second to Joey Votto in on-base percentage, all while playing a solid center field and swiping 20-plus bases at a great rate. Trout owns two MVP awards, deserves at least two or three more, and has been the best player in the world since he was 20. He joins Mickey Mantle as the only position players since 1950 to surpass 50 career WARP through age 25, and if he matches PECOTA’s projection for this season he’ll have topped 60 career WARP through age 26.

There’s no doubt that Coors Field inflates Nolan Arenado‘s raw numbers, because it inflates everyone’s raw numbers. He’s a career .314 hitter with a .958 OPS at home, compared to .264 with a .790 OPS on the road. Of course, he has an .850 OPS on the road during the past three seasons and PECOTA is designed specifically to contextualize performances that occur in extreme environments, projecting Arenado as the fifth-best hitter and the third-best defender among all third basemen. Arenado is a legitimate star and the easy choice for the top spot here, but after that it gets pretty tricky.

Both reigning MVP winners are in the age-28 group, and PECOTA is no help in determining whether Jose Altuve or Giancarlo Stanton should get the honors here because they’re projected to have identical WARP in 2018. I’ll go with Stanton, in part because he had a higher WARP last season and in part because Altuve already won a slightly more important thing just a few months ago.

So far every “best” pick has been a position player, with very few reasonable arguments to even be made in favor of pitchers, but that changes in a big way once we get this close to 30. PECOTA absolutely loves Chris Sale, projecting him for the best ERA in baseball despite pitching in the American League and calling Fenway Park home.

This is similar to Mike Trout topping Kris Bryant and Aaron Judge for the age-26 crown. Paul Goldschmidt is an incredible player, producing at an MVP level nearly every season, and PECOTA projects him as one of the five most valuable position players in baseball for 2018. He is not, however, Clayton Kershaw. PECOTA sees Kershaw leading the National League in ERA for the sixth time in the past eight seasons—he also finished 13 innings short of a seventh ERA title—and the projected 2.54 mark would actually be his worst since 2010.

To celebrate the launch of the 2018 PECOTA projections, we’re offering 18% off new subscriptions and extensions of existing subscriptions. To take advantage of the limited-time offer, pick a subscription and enter the discount code “PECOTA18” at checkout.

I have always had a problem with PECOTA among all the projection systems and Nolan Arenado is all the evidence I need to see that nothing has changed. Of course he hits better at HOME. How many players do not hit better in their home ball park whether that park is Coors or Fenway or the Bandbox in the Bronx and to even suggest that he is not the gold standard at 3rd is difficult to fathom.

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