Friday, June 10, 2011

FAQ: Why does CR give everything away for free? Because he feels like it ;-)

I'm frequently asked for sources of data, so here is an update to the list ranking economic data. For each indicator I've included a link to the source, and a link to the current graph gallery.

These lists are not exhaustive (I'm sure I've left a few off), and the rankings are not static. As an example, right now initial weekly unemployment claims is ‘B List’ data, but when (if) the expansion takes hold, weekly claims will move unceremoniously to the 'D List'.

I've marked several indicators with '***' indicating I think this data is currently more important than usual. This includes weekly claims and several real estate related releases (delinquency reports, negative equity, vacancy rates).

Some of the lower ranked data is useful as leading indicators. As an example, the Architecture Billings Index is a leading indicator for investment in commercial real estate. And the NMHC apartment survey leads changes in apartment rents and vacancy rates. Also some of the lower ranked data helps forecast some of the more important data.

Note: There has been some research (by Wall Street analysts) about how "surprises" for many of these indicators impact the stock market. In general the ranking is similar to this list, with the employment situation report being #1. Surprisingly (at least to me) investors tend to react more to "surprises" for existing home sales than new home sales, even though the later is far more important from an economic perspective.

And on Existing Home Sales: This was a tough choice. For me, the key to the NAR report is the inventory number - I watch it closely at times (I'd even say that existing home inventory would be 'B List' data right now - if it was more accurate), but the sales number is much less important than inventory. (Note: This summer I expect the NAR to revise down sales and inventory for the last few years).