P1 Registration for 2014 – Preview

(Updated 27 Mar 2013) Come mid July this year, the Primary One registration madness will start once again. This year’s Exercise would be for children born in 2007, the year of the Pig.

The birthrate for 2007 was 39490, vs 2006 which was 38317. There was an increase of 1173 babies.

This might prompt MOE to increase the number of places offered for Primary One in 2014, but it depends very much on many other factors such as the number of PR children or children of Singaporeans returning home who are eligible for Primary School next year. MOE has yet to release information about available places, new schools, and the actual dates for the registration.

Given the competition for places in popular schools in recent years, parents would do well to register their children in Phases 1 or 2A, if the situation allows. Parents who cannot enjoy this privilege will have to go through the nail-biting, later stages of the Exercise.

KiasuParents.com has analysed the last 6 years (2006-2012) of P1 registration exercises, and we will be sharing some insights into the trends that we observed. This is purely a statistical analysis, not taking into account exigent circumstances and other information not publicly released. The intent is to provide parents with information that allows them to evaluate their chances of getting into specific schools, and knowing what suitable alternatives they may have if they find it is too risky to bet on getting into popular schools. Parents should practise caution when using this information.

The Balloting Risk is averaged over a maximum of 7 years. New schools with shorter histories are also listed, but averaged over the number of years they existed.

Risk values range from 0.00 to 1.00, normalised against the school with the highest risk of balloting in each Phase. The new index takes into account 3 factors

The distance bucket for which balloting is required. Balloting within 1km would be weighted higher than balloting within 1-2km or beyond 2km

The recency of balloting. Balloting that occurred more recently are weighted higher than balloting that occurred earlier. This is linearly scaled.

The intensity of the competition reflected by the level of over-subscription (as seen in the APP value of our charts). So balloting that occurred with higher levels of over-subscription will be weighted higher.

In short,

0.00 => No balloting of any sort has occurred at that Phase in any year for the school

1.00 => School with the highest risk of balloting (or cut-off) at that Phase

Any value between 0.00 and 1.00 implies that some form of balloting has occurred. The higher the index, the higher the risk of balloting within 1km of the school.

We have also marked the schools with colors to make things easier to read.

Uncolored => No risk of balloting at any distance

High risk of balloting beyond 2km

High risk of balloting between 1km to 2km

High risk of balloting within 1km

Obviously, parents should avoid schools with high risks of balloting, and go for those which are near their homes and with much lower risks. As an example, referring to the table below, if you stay in Ang Mo Kio, and if you are not already in Phase 2B of CHIJ St Nicholas, you should NOT try your luck in Phase 2C for CHIJ St Nicholas if you are outside of 1km. Even if you are within 1km, the odds could be against you, especially if you are a PR, and not a Singaporean.

Instead, you might wish to consider going for Teck Ghee Primary School in Phase 2C. It has a very low risk of balloting in Phase 2C, but it gets quite hot in Phase 2CS when all those that tried but failed to get into SNGS start looking for alternatives, leading to some risk of balloting in Phase 2CS. Mayflower and Ang Mo Kio Primary schools are also good alternatives for Phase 2C if you are looking for a stress-free P1 registration.