Indeed the polls confirmed that the economy (meaning the downturn) was far and away the number one issue. The polls also made it clear, for example this Mustel survey on page 2 and this Angus Reid poll on page 10, that the Campbell Liberals were seen as those best able to deal with the economy.

It seems to TC that the shoe may now be on the other foot. The deteriorating economy could cause permanent political damage to his government. This downturn remains in its relatively early stages. Its full political consequences have yet to reveal themselves. When they do, don't count on Campbell being able to maintain a public image of economic competence, even if there is a strong economic recovery by 2013.

The Green Vote

A key error made by the NDP, although it probably did not have a material impact on the outcome, was their decision to oppose the carbon tax. TC discussed this earlier. The NDP faces potential negative consequences in the longer term because there is a large small 'g' green vote in BC that will continue to matter one way or another. TC did some analysis of the Green Party vote and discovered that, like NDP voters have done in federal elections, many Greens cast a strategic ballot this time, voting for their second choice in close races. The evidence for this can be seen by comparing the average Green vote to the margin between the top two parties, (in almost all cases the top two finishers were either Liberal or NDP).

This table tells the tale:

Margin

Average Green Vote

0 to 10%

6.9%

10 to 20%

7.25%

20 to 30%

8.6%

30% +

9.1%

The closer the race, the smaller the Green vote. While there was considerable variation, the correlation evident in the table can mean only one thing. The second choices of Green voters matter a great deal - something for the NDP to ponder in the future in BC and elsewhere.