Lionel Jospin Leads Left to Stunning
Victory

Socialists Poll More Than RPR-UDF
Combined

by Ric Erickson

Paris:- Sunday, 1. June 1997:- Within minutes
after 20:00, state TV France 2 announced the first
estimates in today's nationwide voting in the second and
deciding round of elections for the next National
Assembly.

The parties of the left, the French Socialist Party
and the French Communist Party, together gained a
commanding majority.

Three hours after polls closed, definitive results
from 478 polling stations out of 577, gives conservative
paries a total of 201 seats, the socialist and leftist
parties have 276 seats, and the ultra-right-wing Front
National party, one seat. Estimates give the left about a
90-seat majority over the right.

Jubilation in the
Socialist Camp

Scenes on TV from the headquarters' of the various
winning candidates of the left, showed supporters
receiving the news with giddy enthusiasm, as if France
had won the World Cup.

After the initial estimates, TV coverage settled down
to featuring a parade of talking heads from all parties,
with many speakers for the conservative parties making
better speeches than they gave while campaigning. All the
same,
the voting is over and so is the campaigning, as some of
them were reminded by the winners.

No conservatives were volunteering to offer an
explanation of why voters had turned against them after
four years in power.

In fact, the voting results showed that voters were
not happy with the recent leaders of the last four years,
and despite the imminent prospect of Communists being in
the government, had refused to be frightened by the
prospect. Disregarding scare tactics, the voters
massively rejected the overwhelming former conservative
majority.

In doing so, the Socialist leader, Lionel Jospin;
proved once and for all that he is an effective campaign
leader. Shown on TV at the moment of the announcement of
the initial estimates, he merely raised his eyebrows when
he heard the number and let a slight smile pass quickly
cross his lips.

Since former Prime Minister Alain Juppé's
abandonment of the race for the head of the cabinet early
in the week, substitute conservative campaign leader
Philippe Sequin played catch-up with passion and
determination - but it was already too late. An ardent
supporter and practitioner of the democratic process, he
was always worth listening to for his
convictions.

Score of the Ultra-Right Front
National

Recent polls showed the ultra-right-wing Front
National getting about 15 percent of the vote, but the
actual results were meager with the Front National
managing only to get Jean-Marie Le Chavallier of Toulon re-elected to the National
Assembly.

This graphic of an early assembly seat
esitmate, was unchanged hours later. Notice that the
'reds' are on the left.

It is obvious that the FN received many votes in the
first round of the national elections a week ago -
essentially in contests which counted for little other
than advertisements of discontent.

Nevertheless, as a 'talking head' on TV after results
were announced, the leader of the Front National,
Jean-Marie Le Pen, continued to repeat his major campaign
themes.

Major losers were FN number two Bruno Megrét,
handily beaten by about 10 points, and Mr. Le Pen's
daughter, who was also beaten in a three-way race at
Mantes in Yvelines. She was leading after the first round
and in the polls, but the Socialist candidate carried the
day, with 40 percent of the vote against her 24
percent.

Voting Conditions: Weather On Sunday

TV weather news only shows the future and not the past
and I saw no weather reports today. The recent brilliant
weather turned cloudy and windy overnight, but if
anything, probably increased the likelihood of
balloting.

Mayor of Paris Re-elected to National
Assembly

Jean Tiberi, RPR, was returned to national office
as representative of the Quartier Latin - Paris' 2nd
voting district - after an extremely hard-fought and
emotional campaign. The Paris Mayor has been the subject
of considerable local criticism, and it was thought his
position at the Hôtel de Ville would lack authority
in the case of a national-level
rejection.

President Jacques Chirac gave a short
speech on TV early in the week.

The Last Polls

Officially unofficial and illegal for publication in
France, the last polls showed the probable results as
being too close for a prediction of the eventual winner,
given their usual plus-minus three percent margin for
error.

Analysts will not doubt have month's worth of work in
front of them to decipher these tea leaves. Did the
partial late publication of polls change voters
intentions, or not?

The End of the Campaign

Watching the results, polling district by district, I
am struck by the generally handy majorities of the
winners. Where scores are close, they are on the order of
53 to 47, a healthy five-point difference. Although I am
not going to watch all 565-odd separate results, I doubt
there will be any 50.5 to 49.5 scores.

Philippe
Seguin, called in to lead the conservatives at the last
minute, talked non-stop for a week but failed to stop the
march of the left.

French Election Web Sites

For minute details about the National French
elections, the numbers will be found at one or more of
the web sites below.

There are some details I would like to know such as
the rate of abstention. It doesn't look like TV is going
to furnish it, and I doubt very much that I can get
access to the Web myself tonight.