Every week, chef Doug Robson purchases dozens of cases of avocados for his two Phoenix restaurants, Gallo Blanco and Otro Cafe. Each case includes 48 rough-skinned fruits for a total of nearly 1,000 avocados a week.

Typically, this works out to about $900 spent on avocados between the two popular Mexican restaurants.

But in mid-November, the price of avocados shot up to nearly $100 a case — about double the usual price.

"We had to make some adjustments," Robson said. "People think avocados are cheap, but they're not."

Then his avocado orders stopped arriving altogether. Both restaurants had to tell customers that avocados were no longer on the menu.

In 2017, chef Doug Robson brought back his popular contemporary Mexican restaurant that was once located at the Clarendon Hotel. The new Gallo Blanco is housed in a renovated historic building near downtown Phoenix.(Photo: Tom Tingle/The Republic)

"Due to extreme price fluctuations of 300% increase in avocados, we will not be serving them in our dishes," a Nov. 20 post on the Otro Cafe Instagram stated. "Thank you for understanding. It's not in our control. Cheers."

It's not the first time the price of avocados has skyrocketed suddenly. Last year, he remembers paying more than $100 a case at one point, costing the businesses an additional $4,000 in a single month.

This was, however, the first time he couldn't get his hands on any at all. And it's not likely to be the last.

What's the cause?

The problem, at least this time around, can be traced to where most restaurants source avocados during the winter months.

The California avocado season winds down around the end of September, at which point almost all avocados eaten in the United States begin to come from Mexico. But not just anywhere in Mexico. They come exclusively from Michoacán, which holds an export agreement with the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

In early November, avocado growers in the region went on strike, refusing to pick fruit in protest. According to reports, growers from other parts of the country had been trucking their products into the Michoacán and passing them off as local products to cut into the U.S. export business.

Really sorry about that. We're currently seeing a shortage in avocados from our suppliers, but we hope to have supplies back to normal soon. -Jenn

The strike affected U.S. businesses large and small, from national brands like Chipotle to Phoenix-based restaurant chain Macayo's, which told The Republic its suppliers were unable to provide avocados during mid- and late-November.

Local farmer Bob McClendon sells avocados and other produce to restaurants Valley-wide, including Robson's. While he grows much of the produce he sells on his own farms, some things, including avocados, can't be grown in Arizona and must be purchased from other growers.

Due to the strike, McClendon was unable to purchase any avocados in mid-November and therefore couldn't sell them to Robson and other customers.

"There were basically no avocados for two weeks," McClendon recalled. "The price did go up, as the supply diminished. It's a supply and demand thing.

"There's always some problem down there — in the past, it's been the cartel."

According to McClendon, previous years have seen avocado prices increase when Mexican cartels have extorted avocado growers by demanding farmers pay a percentage of their earnings to the criminal groups. Farmers then would pass on the extra expense to consumers, causing prices to climb suddenly.

"It typically happens several times a year for one reason or another," McClendon says.

Bob McClendon lives in Peoria. He's known for growing organic fruit and vegetables, supplying them to some of Arizona's most lauded chefs.(Photo: Jessee Reiser)

More than avocados

Avocado isn't the only ingredient that makes restaurant owners vulnerable to abrupt and sharp price increases. There are a number of things that can push produce prices to rise or fall.

In another recent example, McClendon points to iceberg lettuce, which rose dramatically in price in the days and weeks after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advised consumers against eating romaine lettuce.

Prices for iceberg, which is typically a cheaper alternative to leaf lettuces like romaine, quadrupled from the usual $20 range per case to a whopping $80 a case.

"(It was) just nuts — it just skyrocketed," McClendon said. "Produce can fluctuate on a day-by-day basis and the poor restaurants have to deal with that. It just narrows their profit margins."

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Is there a solution?

Professor Armin Wiek directs the Sustainable Local Food Economies and Enterprises Lab at Arizona State University. The lab works with local businesses, nonprofits and government to study and support sustainable food economies.

Weik says shortage of supply and the resulting price increases do pose a problem for restaurants, but one that can be addressed by finding more reliable sources for produce. Weik suggests using more local producers.

"I think we need to start thinking even stronger in a hyper-local context," Weik said. "We have been relying for a very long time on international and national supply chains. If we could think about more locally producing, we could maybe have a more reliable supply."

In metro Phoenix, Weik estimates we grow a small percentage of the food consumed here, which leaves our economy "very exposed to price fluctuations."

In addition, he says, the standardization of menus contributes to the problem. Crafting menus that reflect the seasonality of produce would alleviate the need to source ingredients when they are harder to find and thus more expensive.

Restaurants also can engage in more consumer education.

The "idea of one menu" being offered throughout the year at one price doesn't make sense. "I feel this is kind of an outdated model," he said.