ROCKFORD — Police say a sharp decline in shots-fired incidents this year is the result of key arrests, strategic deployment of officers and use of crime-data analysis.

Gunfire is not common in Heather Vecchione’s Rolling Green neighborhood, where residents have formed an association to help police fight crime. But, as in much of Rockford, it is an occasional issue.

“When you do hear it, it is a very uneasy feeling,” she said. “You don’t know where it’s coming from, you don’t know anything about it. It is very scary. I guess we don’t hear it as often as other neighborhoods do.”

The 470 reports of shots fired last year translates into more than one incident of gunfire daily in the city. But through June 30, confirmed incidents of gunfire are down 30.6 percent to 170, compared with 245 in the same period in 2013.

Police say poverty, lack of education and sparse jobs have played a role in Rockford’s level of crime, violence and gunfire.

They attribute some of the shots-fired decline to crime analysis that directs patrols to the most active crime areas and can sometimes predict, based on trend data, where crime is most likely to occur next.

Lt. Darin Spades said arrests of people suspected in multiple shootings or shots-fired also appear to have played a key role.

“You have very specific people that are out there, a small group of people who can really drive your crime rate and drive your numbers,” he said. “If you are arresting the busy offenders ... you can dramatically affect your crime rate in the right direction.”

Among those recent arrests is Lamarcus “Kool Aid” Bassett, 21. He is a suspect in a June 17 armed robbery and a June 19 drive-by shooting on Royal Avenue. He is scheduled for an arraignment July 17.

Lt. Patrick Hoey said the Violent Crimes Task Force — a collaboration of patrol, investigations and law enforcement intelligence from Rockford, Winnebago County, Loves Park and state and federal agencies — has also been effective. The group targeted gang members for arrest last year and early this year.

“We saw a significant decrease once they started taking off those major players with the Wacos and Moes” street gangs, he said. “All it takes is a small group of violent people to really impact crime in a community. And once those people are targeted and taken off the streets, you can see a significant reduction.”