Republican TV ads could signal battle finally underway in Indiana

September 30, 2008|By TROY KEHOE WSBT-TV Reporter

SOUTH BEND Â? The race for the White House could heat up again in Indiana. Republicans are about to take their campaign to the airwaves of Indiana for the first time in years, and some say that makes it official: this year Indiana will be a battleground state.

GOP candidate John McCain's campaign has been running national ads for months. There's a good chance you've seen one.

But, new ads tailored directly to Hoosiers hit the air in markets across Indiana on Tuesday. Some say that means the fight for the state's 11 electoral votes is officially underway. The ads, purchased by the Republican National Committee, will be the first run in Indiana on behalf of a GOP presidential candidate since former Sen. Bob Dole took to the airwaves in 1996.

Indiana hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential election since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won a landslide election over Republican Barry Goldwater in 1964. Since then, pundits and candidates alike have considered the state a reliable red state.

Over the last 8 years, that's been hammered home even harder. President George W. Bush carried Indiana by 21 percentage points in 2004 Â? an increase from his 16 percentage point Hoosier win in 2000. Sen. McCain will undoubtedly benefit from a strong Republican Party organization in the state that's helped other candidates over the last 44 years carry Indiana.

But the majority of the state's Congressional seats are now Democratic, and some experts believe Democrats are gaining when it comes to fundraising and organization. Barack Obama's home state of Illinois, where he is a wildly popular Senator, is also right next door.

Add it all together, and some are beginning to ask a new historic question: Is Indiana about to turn from red to blue?

Obama has been running ads across Indiana and Michigan for more than 3 months, at times, blanketing the airwaves. The ads have hit on everything from Iraq to Wall Street, and, until now, there's been little localized response from McCain.

But in nearly every television market across the state Â? including South Bend Â? that began to change on Tuesday.

McCain's first ad aimed directly at Hoosiers is titled "worse." It focuses on the recent meltdown on Wall Street and the country's economic crisis, claiming Obama's plan to address the situation will "make things worse."

Obama's Indiana campaign says the attack ad means only one thing. "It's proof that the Republicans are seeing this race just like we are: that this is a battleground state," said Obama's Indiana Campaign Spokesman Jonathan Swain. "This is a tight, tight race. And, it's certainly within Barack Obama's reach." But, in a state that's voted for a Republican for president for half a century, is that jumping too far, too soon?

Indiana University-South Bend Political Science Professor Elizabeth Bennion says, it's not that much of a stretch. "It really signals that the McCain campaign has decided that it must, in fact, defend Indiana. The RNC targets states very carefully, and closely. And if they didn't think there would be anything to be gained here by spending their dollars here, they wouldn't do it. So, I think this suggests that they are a bit worried," she said.

But does that mean Indiana is now a full blown battleground state? "I think it does," said Bennion. "Resources are incredibly valuable in a presidential campaign. So, if the campaign plans to devote resources here in Indiana, they clearly see Indiana as a swing state."

But Indiana State Republican Party Spokesman Jay Kenworthy says that's not necessarily true. "Barack Obama has spent millions of dollars in Indiana on a very negative campaign. By our count he has 6 negative ads that are running, or have run in the state, plus negatives mail pieces and that sort of thing. To sit back and allow that to happen in a vacuum with no response could have led to troublesome results for us," Kenworthy said.

And to back that up, Kenworthy cites similar ad buys in other states.

The $750,000 the RNC spent for Indiana ads is actually part of a much larger $5 million dollar ad campaign that will run for the next 8 days in 6 battleground states, including Ohio, Michigan and Florida. But that money is just a drop in the bucket when compared to Obama's ads.

His campaign has already spent twice that amount Â? more than $1.5 million — for ads in Indiana over the last 3 months alone. Add that to the $6 million Obama spent to advertise in Indiana during the primary, and his financial advantage is 10 to 1.

Or, consider the sunshine state. One report anticipates Obama's campaign spending up to $39 million to court Florida voters alone. And there's plenty more where that came from.

"We don't see any reason why we wouldn't continue to utilize all those resources," said Swain when asked about the possibility of new ad buys in all of the "swing" states, including Indiana. "We certainly think we have a shot here."

But, why the sudden change from a state so mired in tradition?

"Obama is turning out new voters," said Bennion. "[He's] turning out young voters, formerly disenfranchised voters, voters who don't tend to go to the polls in high numbers on election day. That makes it much more difficult to rely on the history of what normal voters do."

Then, there are the polls.

Some showed McCain with wide leads early in the race. But, lately, many have showed the gap narrowing. "I think several things have changed since those first calculations," said Bennion. "First, voters are saying they generally thought Obama did better in that first presidential debate. And second, the poll results themselves show McCain and Obama very tight, and some people are seeing that Obama may be gaining momentum."

"The reason Indiana is a red state is that Hoosier voters have a certain set of values. And they want to see those values reflected in their president," he said.

But Swain says there's already at least one issue trumping all others. "Hoosiers are concerned about the economy. The main reason this state is in play is because Hoosiers want to see this country headed in a new direction," Swain said.

Again, Bennion agrees. In light of the events on Wall Street over the last few weeks, she says the race for Hoosier votes will hinge largely on which candidate's message of economic change resonates the most. "The focus on the economy now strengthens Obama's candidacy, and it means McCain will have to defend here in Indiana," she said. "I think it also raises the odds that we'll see candidates on the ground here this fall."

Even so, neither campaign would commit to that.

"We certainly anticipate that both [Obama] and Senator Biden would be back in the state. I don't have any specifics, though," said Swain.

"There is a chance that [McCain] or [Palin] or both of them might stop by [Indiana], but there's nothing in the hopper right now," said Kenworthy.