That's because it's never enough to look only at a president's or any politician's approval ratings and overall poll numbers. You never know the full story until you see the numbers for his or her chief opponents.

Of course, this is not an election year and the Democrats don't even have a clear frontrunner for their 2020 nomination. But thanks to the just ended shutdown battle, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer have emerged more than ever as the two most noticeable Trump opponents.

It is Schumer and Pelosi who have led the most visual and verbal counterattack against the White House during this shutdown drama. Just to put the binary choice into 2018 terms, the shutdown had two basic rallying cries on the social media battleground. Democrat supporters and anti-Trumpers tagged their posts with the #TrumpShutdown hashtag, while Republicans and pro-Trumpers countered with #SchumerShutdown. Both of those hashtags were among the top trending topics on Twitter over the weekend.

The second factor just coming to the surface is the better-than-expected early positive effect from the tax reform law. The congressional Republicans are already starting to poll better on the shoulders of all the news of bonuses, raises and increased corporate investments in America. This is all happening before the lower tax withholding rates take effect in February and millions of Americans will potentially see a noticeable increase in their paychecks.

This doesn't mean Trump has slammed the Democrats into submission. His unpopularity is real and remains an inviting reason for dozens of potentially more popular opponents to enter the fray against him. But for now, Trump is lucky enough that his key opponents are named Pelosi and Schumer.

To put it in Mark Twain's terms, news of Donald Trump's political demise has been greatly exaggerated … again. But exaggerated takes on the president's poll numbers are the result of an incomplete look at the available data. Until more of the pundits take a more educated look at the full story, Trump will continue to surprise the "experts."