As we work to bring even more value to our audience, we’ve made important changes for those who receive Ad Age with our compliments. As of November 15, 2016 we will no longer be offering full digital access to AdAge.com. However, we will continue to send you our industry-leading print issues focused on providing you with what you need to know to succeed.

If you’d like to continue your unlimited access to AdAge.com, we invite you to become a paid subscriber. Get the news, insights and tools that help you stay on top of what’s next.

Wide Open Spaces: Rural America awaits a surge of retirees.

If you thought the dream of life on Golden Pond died in the
'80s, think again. Boomers are making retirement plans and, based
the results of a Gallup poll of the over-50 set, a majority of them
would like to settle down in a small town or rural area.

By 2005, Americans aged 50 to 59 will number 35 million - an
increase of 140 percent in just ten years. No one can say for
certain what the percentage of moving boomers will be; conservative
estimates put the number at 4.5 percent, consistent with mobility
rates of previously retired generations. But some researchers
suggest the number may be as high as 38 percent. Richard Reeder, an
economist with the Economic Research Service in the U.S. Department
of Agriculture (USDA), says such predictions aren't outlandish,
considering the fact that today's retirees have more income,
independence, and motivation for migrating than those of the
past.

But even if 77 million boomers don't pick up and go at
unprecedented rates, the total retirement pie is still so large
that even a small slice of movers could be quite filling.

And hundreds of rural counties out there stand a good chance of
getting a seat at the table.Increasingly, retirees moving out of
state are going from large metro areas to smaller-size communities
or rural regions, a trend that is expected to continue. Retirees
most likely to move tend to be younger, since mobility is highest
in the early years of retirement. Most interstate migrants today
are in their mid-60s, but with more and more workers choosing early
retirement, the median age could drop slightly in coming years. The
rural-bound are also likely to be highly educated, experts say. At
least 30.2 percent of Americans aged 60 to 64 in 2010 will have a
bachelor's degree or higher, compared to 19.7 percent of those 60
to 64 today, according to the Census Bureau. Movers are also likely
to be married and white.

But above all, the boomer movers will be wealthy. The first wave
to retire will show an increase in the number of dual-career
couples. As a result, their retirement income will come from a
multitude of sources. They'll also have benefited from the real
estate boom of the '70s and '80s and a surging '90s economy.
Boomers with money to spend today are already having an impact on
rural communities by purchasing vacation homes that can be
converted into retirement homes 10 to 15 years down the road.

Back to the land

So just where in the boonies can we expect to see a growing
population of wealthy, married, educated, young-ish retirees?
William Frey, demographer for the Milken Institute in Santa Monica,
California, says that states in the "new" West will lead the nation
in elderly migrants to rural areas, beginning en masse around 2010.
Topping Frey's list of states with the highest percentage growth of
people 65 and older from 2000 to 2025 are Utah, Alaska, Idaho,
Wyoming, and Colorado - states with relatively small populations,
lots of rural space, mild climates, and natural beauty. Southern
states are predicted to grow as well, but slower than in the West:
Georgia, the highest-ranking Southern state, is trailed by Texas,
North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida.

Boomers won't mind leaving Metropolis for Main Street, Reeder
says, because they've identified with rural areas ever since their
hippie days, when many grew fond of hiking, mountain biking,
skiing, and camping - activities they still participate in in large
numbers. In addition, this generation has traveled more for work
and education in their lifetime than previous generations, which
means they've been exposed to more places. Rarely do people move to
a place that was previously unknown to them.

While states like Florida and Arizona will continue to draw
hordes of seniors in the coming years, many movers will be looking
off the beaten path for that undiscovered oasis, and counties like
Skagit, Washington, are counting on it. Skagit is one of 190 rural
counties labeled a Retirement Destination County by the USDA. These
counties, located mainly in the South and West, experienced a 15
percent or more in-migration rate of persons 60 and older from 1980
to 1990. Total population in those counties also grew more than 16
percent, outpacing both the metro and non-metro averages, according
to Reeder. Of course, seniors did not account for all of the
increase. But the oldest cohort, those 65 and older, did experience
the highest percentage of growth - 31.5 percent. The younger
population grew as well: The cohort of 18-to-34-year-olds grew by 7
percent; 35-to-64-year-olds by 27.8 percent.

The young and the old rely heavily upon one another in such
communities. The elderly residents are consumers of goods and
services, including housing, food, entertainment, and health
services, and the young are the workers servicing those needs. An
influx of retirees to an area creates a mix of jobs, from a few
highly skilled medical jobs to the more abundant, unskilled retail
jobs.

Still, those unskilled jobs can help to increase the income of
the unemployed or underemployed. Skagit County outpaced both the
nation and Washington state in percent increase of new jobs in the
service sector from 1993 to 1996 (up 116 percent). It also added a
greater percentage of retail establishments (nearly 106 percent
growth) than either the state or the nation during the same time.
In addition to bringing new jobs and businesses to town, retirement
counties are also able to keep existing businesses open. This is
due in part to retirees' declining mobility, which increases the
likelihood of spending locally.

Most boomers will have to settle for dreams of quiet nights with
fireflies and cicadas for at least another ten years. But rural
counties should plan to be ready when the retirees come
knocking.