CAMPAIGN PROMISES WITH NO PRICE TAGS ATTACHED

The four major contenders for San Diego mayor are making a lot of them ahead of the Nov. 19 special election to replace disgraced former Mayor Bob Filner. They’ve pledged to repair streets and build new fire stations. They’ve promised to create thousands of new jobs. And they say they’ll hire more police officers and give raises to veteran cops.

Those big-ticket promises sound great in TV commercials and campaign mailers, but the reality is the city is just now emerging from a decade-long fiscal crisis and spending pledges by mayoral candidates are being met with skepticism. As Filner discovered after taking office last December, the city simply doesn’t have the money to fund major initiatives.

That hasn’t stopped the candidates — former City Attorney Michael Aguirre, City Councilman David Alvarez, City Councilman Kevin Faulconer and Qualcomm executive Nathan Fletcher — from dreaming big. They’ve promised programs and projects that would, at a minimum, cost hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars yet have been vague about where they’ll find the money to pay for them.

Republican consultant John Dadian, who isn’t involved in the race, said it’s up to voters to judge whether they think the promises are attainable and if the candidate can be trusted to follow through.

“Does the public take (campaign promises) with a grain of salt or do they take them seriously?” Dadian said. “I’m assuming they’ve done their homework and know that the things they’re promising are doable. Once the mayor is elected … if he doesn’t address the things he promised during the campaign, that’s when the public and the media need to hold his feet to the fire.”

Former Mayor Jerry Sanders promised to turn the city’s finances around and reduce the city’s then-$840 million infrastructure backlog. He succeeded on the first to a large degree but not on the second as he scaled back ambitious plans in the face of a national recession. The backlog is now widely estimated at beyond $1 billion.

Filner left a trail of broken promises when he resigned Aug. 30 amid a sexual harassment scandal. He pledged to increase funding for infrastructure projects but actually reduced spending in that category. Other promises to install solar panels on all city buildings, implement a zoning ordinance for medical marijuana dispensaries, increase city planning efforts and expand port business all went unfulfilled because of his early departure.

Carl Luna, a political science professor at Mesa College, said campaign promises provide a shorthand to voters about where a candidate stands and often that’s about all they’re worth.

“Campaign promises indicate a direction you would go if you weren’t constrained by fiscal and political realities,” Luna said. “Once you get in, it’s like with any relationship, promises are made at the outset with good intentions, but then you have to bend to the realities. Voters don’t really hold politicians all that accountable over the long haul for promises met.”

While many of Filner’s troubles were self-inflicted, he acknowledged shortly after taking office that the promises he campaigned on would have to be put on hold or scaled back because of a lack of money. He had to close a $40 million deficit in the city’s $1.2 billion operating budget but was able to put a down payment on some promises by funding homeless shelters and increasing pay for city workers.

In all likelihood, the next mayor will follow a similar path by inching forward on his top priorities rather than making a giant leap. That reality hasn’t been reflected on the campaign trail.

Faulconer, a Republican, and Fletcher, a Democrat, have attached specific numbers and timelines to their plans but, like Alvarez, another Democrat, they haven’t been as clear on how to pay for it. Aguirre, also a Democrat, has been cautious about promising spending in light of the city’s finances.

• Alvarez has promised in his “Blueprint for San Diego” plan to invest more in infrastructure, increase pay for police officers, construct new fire stations to address lagging response times and build more affordable housing. He hasn’t provided many specifics but said he would explore new funding sources, including a possible voter-approved bond, and dedicate a to-be-determined portion of new city revenue toward projects.

“The choice is clear,” Alvarez in announcing his plans. “Voters can choose to support piecemeal pledges and promises. Or they can choose to support my comprehensive, inclusive and specific plan for real change and growth.”

• Faulconer has pledged to spend $900 million on infrastructure projects over the next five years, create 2,500 summer jobs for at-risk youth by 2015 and increase the take-home pay for police officers. He also pledged to put 50 percent of all new city revenues toward infrastructure.

“It takes a mayor that has the political will to get it done in an era of competing priorities and that’s what I’m going to do,” Faulconer said of his promises.

• Fletcher has as promised to add 160 officers to the Police Department by 2016, help create 130,000 jobs by 2020 and fund infrastructure needs. Fletcher hasn’t indicated how he would pay for his plans other than to say his budget proposal would reflect those priorities.

“We need to move swiftly on repairing and rebuilding our great city if we want to ensure that San Diego can move forward and give future generations a truly great city,” Fletcher said.

• Aguirre is the only major candidate who has consistently highlighted the city’s fiscal woes during the campaign. He points to the city’s $2.3 billion pension deficit and says the increasing annual payments will limit the ability to spend elsewhere.

His proposed solutions, however, would face a tough road at City Hall. He said the city should underfund the pension system and put that money toward roads. He’s also said he would negotiate with unions to eliminate retroactive pension benefits granted in 2002. As city attorney, Aguirre unsuccessfully sought to roll back the benefits through litigation.

The candidates’ funding ideas reside on shaky ground. A public vote on bonds as Alvarez proposes is unpredictable, especially given voters rejected a 2010 sales-tax increase. Setting aside new tax revenue for projects as Alvarez and Faulconer want appeals to some as a wise investment, but there’s no guarantee revenues will soar high enough in any given year to provide substantial funding.

The suggestion by Fletcher that the new mayor will be able to prioritize his initiatives in a future budget is true but ignores the fact that much of city spending is already set in stone. More than half of the city’s $1.2 billion operating budget is consumed by the police and fire departments, a $641 million sum that would only increase under each candidate’s plans. The rest is spent on parks, libraries, planning, street repairs and debt payments.

In the end, the wiggle room left for the mayor to put his stamp on the budget could be a few million dollars unless there’s a major revenue surge.

The first major update on next year’s budget projections will come from interim Mayor Todd Gloria later this month.