June 4,
2008: The Pakistani peace deal with the pro-Taliban
tribes (particularly with warlord Baitullah Mehsud in South Waziristan, on the
Afghan border) is stumbling over the details. Mehsud refuses to stop sending fighters
into Afghanistan. The Pakistani government can't sign a deal that explicitly allows
this, so Mehsud is being asked to agree to behave, then do what he likes. Mehsud
does not want to lie about such an important item, so negotiations continue. So
does a feud between Mehsud and nearby tribal leader Maulvi Nazir, who worked
with the army last year to expel several hundred foreign al Qaeda members (and
killing over a hundred in the process). Mehsud believes Nazir was wrong to treat the al Qaeda
men (who had turned to banditry and were abusing members of Nazirs tribe) as he
did. But for Mehsud, Nazir's biggest sin was cooperating with the army. Welcome to tribal politics on the frontier.

Meanwhile,
many militants are not waiting for the treaty to be finished, and are putting
on masks and attacking "un-Islamic" activities, like the sale of videos and
music. Dozens of shops and stalls have been burned down recently. The Pakistani
government wants peace along the border, but this peace deal with the tribes is
increasingly seen as a misleading stop-gap. Al Qaeda is setting up shop under
the protection of the pro-Taliban tribes, and the Pakistani government sees
itself being blamed for any terrorist activity traced back to this new al Qaeda
sanctuary. Somehow, the peace deal has to be put together in such a way that
the Pakistani government has plausible deniability when this new terrorist
sanctuary becomes active.

June 3,
2008: Indian counter-terrorism experts
are trying to figure out why recent al Qaeda messages (from leaders to
followers) have dropped references to Hinduism (the ancient religion of 80
percent of Indians). For decades, al Qaeda propaganda had specifically referred
to Christians, Jews and Hindus as the enemies of Islam, and the targets of al
Qaeda attacks. It's also noted that al Qaeda has not made a big effort to put
people into India.

June 2,
2008: In Pakistan's capital, a suicide
bomb went off in front of the Danish embassy, killing eight and wounding over
30. Four of the dead were Pakistani security personnel, the rest civilians. The
attack was apparently in retaliation for anti-terrorist cartoons published in
Denmark last February, which many Islamic radicals consider anti-Moslem. Thus
al Qaeda was believed responsible for this attack, although no one took credit
for it (apparently so as to not interfere with the ongoing peace negotiations
between the Taliban tribes along the Afghan border, and the Pakistani
government.) This was the first terror attack (outside the tribal areas) in two
months.

June 1,
2008: A roadside bomb went off in
northwest Pakistan, killing three civilians. It's unclear exactly who the
target was.

May 31,
2008: In southwest Pakistan
(Baluchistan), violence between Baluchi (one of the smaller minorities in
Pakistan) tribesmen and migrants from Punjab (the largest minority in Pakistan)
left nine dead, many more wounded and much property destroyed. Most of the
victims are Punjabis. The Baluchis are very territorial, and hostile to "outsiders."
But people from Punjab (45 percent of the population) and Sind (14 percent) are
better educated and possess technical skills lacking among the Baluchis (3.5
percent of the population), and must be brought in to do work requiring
technical skills.

May 30,
2008: Indian Moslems are becoming
increasingly vocal in denouncing Islamic terrorism. While Islamic radicalism
has its fans in India, most Moslems there are not interested, and, more
importantly, not intimidated by Islamic terrorists. Police have received a lot
of cooperation from the Moslem community in hunting down Islamic terrorists, and
Moslem clergy are encouraging more such cooperation.

May 28,
2008: Near the Afghan border in
Pakistan, a pickup truck full of pro-Taliban tribesmen and ammunition exploded,
killing six and wounding two. At first it was believed to be another U.S. Hellfire
missile attack, as a Predator UAV had been seen in the area. But the survivors
revealed that a grenade had gotten loose in the truck, exploded, and detonated other
explosives.

May 27,
2008: The U.S. has imposed financial
sanctions on Lashkar e Toiba (LeT), the principal Islamic terrorist
organization operating out of Pakistan, and in Indian Kashmir. Some al Qaeda
terrorists captured by the United States have been trained in LeT camps.

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