Texas, Utah, and Arizona have been the mainstays of US Church growth in recent years, largely due to public policies favorable to job creation. California was for many years a leader in Church growth, but very high housing costs and burdensome governmental regulations have led to an exodus of Church members.

^What Ray said. California also is increasingly built on the two-income family model, which is in tension with church teachings (even though members should be respected for their prayerful choices on this matter).

Another consideration about Church growth in California is a high number of immigrants; while Texas and Arizona and Utah all have their share of lets say more Latino emigres, California receives more from East Asia and south Asia, the Middle East and Muslim countries where there are are fewer interactions with Christian dialogues and LDS peoples.I also blame the sick aspects of hip hop culture and economic stresses for church griwth in the Golden State.Just yesterday I was talking to another guy who was releaved to move away from California. I was there for 8 total years, and while there are tons of great members and 7 temples actively performing there, other places seem more prime for growth now

Stake growth was faster than congregational growth in 2016, but congregational growth was higher from 2004 to 2015. In many ways, stakes were simply catching up with congregation in 2016. IIRC, percent growth from 2004 to 2016 was still less than percent congregation growth.

68500 missionaries currently serving. Does anybody remember the number before the surge? It seems like the missionary force keeps dropping numerically.http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865681342/?user=app

Re above post about growth of wards and branches, the totals do not include the large number of groups, which are not included in the CDOL.

They have insufficient leadership numbers and are usually attached to a nearby branch or ward. It would be great to know the approximate number of groups worldwide. A few years ago I heard there were over 20 in the Philippines alone.

Chapman, based on the numbers I've crunched given the birth rates in the late 1990s and early 2000s and the published seminary enrollment stats, we should continue to see a gradual reduction in Missionary numbers over the next few years. It should then start rising again in 2021. My projections show the the Missionary totals will rise above 70,000 again by the end of 2021 or the end of 2022, and they will rise above 80,000 again by the end of 2023.

Specifically, my projections are that it will range from 65,000 to 67,000 for 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 year end reports (with 2020 being the lowest point). Then a small jump at 2021 year end, followed by significantly larger jumps in the 2022 and 2023 year end reports. Then it will pretty much level off at or just above 80,000 from 2023 until around 2025. Then look for big jumps in 2026, 2027, and 2028, hopefully reaching 100,000 by then. Then leveling-off or modest gains through 2033. (Of course, all this assumes fairly consistent youth activity rates and no age policy changes.)

Maybe sister missionary rates have doubled since the age change? Maybe pre-2012 it was 12 percent and now 24 percent for sisters? Not sure if the upsurge has been that dramatic or not.Potentially my family could have a missionary in the field in 2020. We shall see.

Speaking of converts going on missions, what about a potential increases in full time missionaries from boom growth areas like Cote d'Ivoire or even newer growth spots like Mozambique or Kenya? Unlike more economically dynamic countries where most elders and sisters pay for their own costs, perhaps some of these nations will see many missionaries subsidized by faithful members and later take advantage of the Perpetual Education funds. The potential growth is large in this respect.

For the data to fit fairly closely to the most recent missionary numbers, I assumed an increase of the rate of sister missionaries from previously around 12-14% to now around 25-27%, and it seems to fit quite nicely. Chart: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y_MdJautkkxjnMyCzVmNMWDA-BifmkbmJBcH37oavmc/pubchart?oid=1040145117&format=interactive

Clarification: I don't mean that I assumed 25-27% of missionaries are sister missionaries. I meant that I assumed that 25-27% of qualified, active female members serve missions. But that could be way off. My whole point was that previous birth rates predict the current drop in missionaries serving, but we should see a rise in the 2020s.

Just a thought, I was with mission president last night and he said 35% of his missionaries are sisters in the Brisbane Australia Mission. He also said that recent conversations with GA he has had have said that this is getting close now to being the new norm across the church, 65% elders, 35% sisters.

Right, that's what I was hoping to clarify. If about 1 in every 4 eligible YW serves (~25%), and about 1 in every 2 eligible YM serves (~50%), then there would be twice as many Elders as Sisters, which would give you that about a third (~33%) of young missionaries are Sisters and two thirds (~67%) are Elders.

That is great news. Sisters are such a powerful force in the mission field. We need more of them. I also think the experience of a sister's mission will bless families and the church in general for decades to come, in the same way an Elder's mission does. Neat stuff.

Stakes and Districts Discontinued in 2018

About Me

My interest in researching the growth of the LDS Church began in 2002. I began this blog in late 2007 to provide a forum to discuss LDS growth developments and share information. I have also worked for The Cumorah Foundation since 2009 providing research assistance and resource development on LDS growth and missionary work. Since this time I have been interviewed by various media organizations and have co-authored with David Stewart our comprehensive work Reaching the Nations: International Church Growth Almanac: 2014 Edition. I have a masters degree in psychology and a doctorate degree in clinical psychology.