>> Friday, January 23, 2009

Take a peek at the video above...I delve into some of the modeling for next week in there.

We will indeed enjoy some fantastic weather today with lots of sun and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s here in the Piedmont. Enjoy!

A cold front will swing into the region later tonight. That front will spread clouds in later this evening, and a few showers are possible from after midnight tonight into early tomorrow morning. Some sun will then try to work back in tomorrow afternoon.

Chilly weather settles back in for Sunday with highs back into the 40s again.

Like I have been discussing, we will be in a very complex split flow pattern next week. The timing and nature of precip chances is always hard to nail down in these types of patterns. However, a lot of the modeling this morning has come back around to the ideas I have been discussing here.

It looks like we will have a good chance of some precip Tuesday into Tuesday night next week....maybe as early as Monday night in spots. There remains the potential that we could have a cold air damming scenario unfold, depending on the exact placement and orientation of an area of high pressure off to our north. It is still WAY to early for any confidence with this type of weather pattern, but I still think there is some potential for wintry precip in portions of the Piedmont sometime around Tuesday.

It might wind up being a cold rain, or it could be an icy scenario. Time will tell....

>> Thursday, January 22, 2009

Above is the latest edition of the Carolina Weather video. In it, I take a detailed look at the European model's solution for next week.

Another cold morning out there with temps in the upper teens to lower 20s in many spots. IN locations that still have some snow on the ground, black ice remains a concern this morning. So use caution.

Highs today will rebound into the mid to upper 40s with a sunny sky. Some spots might even touch 50. Tomorrow will be even milder with highs well up into the 50s to around 60 in spots.

A cold front will drop through here early Saturday and bring with it a chance of a few showers. However, rain amounts look very light. Behind that front, we will settle back into chilly weather for Sunday and I believe much of next week.

At this juncture, I think the GFS remains lost regarding next week's weather pattern. We are heading into a split flow pattern, and that often means lots of challenges in the forecast. Next week looks no different.

A big upper air low in the Southwest US looks to occasionally spit out pieces of energy that eventually bring precip chances into the Carolinas. Understand, we will not have a handle on the specifics of these precip chances until we are very close to the time they will occur. That is just the nature of this pattern.

But, as it stands now, I expect one wave of precip to move through around Tuesday. Again, details are and will remain uncertain for a while, but I do still think we will have to monitor for the possibility of some wintry weather in the Piedmont...mainly from ice. Stay tuned on that one.

And, we do have a winner from our snow contest back in December. We actually had three people who were all very close to being correct. The three closest were:

'Brad D' had a forecast of January 22'T' had a forecast of January 18'Junior Weather Man,'aka Brian C, had a forecast of the night of January 18 into January 19.

>> Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Back to a normal schedule today, so above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

We are undergoing a pattern change from one that features a big west coast ridge and east coast trough to a split flow pattern. We are entering a pattern where the computer models are notorious for struggling, even more so than normal.

The general idea is cold today and tonight with moderation kicking in for a couple of days tomorrow and Friday. Highs today will only be in the upper 30s in many spots, with lows tonight in the upper teens to lower 20s.

However, we will see mid to upper 40s to even some lower 50s tomorrow and then 50s everywhere Friday. In fact, some spots could hit 60 Friday afternoon.

Then, the forecast confidence crashes. Generally speaking, I expect a cold front to move through Friday night into Saturday. That front will then stall out somewhere over the Southeast and generally hang out there somewhere in the region into next week.

Occasionally, disturbances will ride along that front and bring precip chances, but timing those out will be very challenging. If that front stays to our south, we could have some run-ins with wintry precip. However, if that front lifts back to our north, the precip would be rain.

See the video for some more details....

Again, I want to give a big thank you to everyone for checking out my blog and video. And a big thank you to everyone who watches us on News 14 Carolina and for all who sent us in pictures and reports. Best I can tell, we received somewhere between 1000 and 1500 emails yesterday, and we appreciate each and every one of them. Thank you!

And, it looks like the Charlotte Airport officially recorded a trace of snowfall yesterday. So that means we have a winner in our little snow contest from back at the end of December! I will look back at all of the forecasts and see who that winner is today or tomorrow.

Looks like a final uptick in snow will kick through Cleveland, Gaston, and Meck counties within the next hour or so. Snow will then taper off in the Charlotte region by mid-morning.

Total accumulation from the eastern side of the Charlotte metro on up through Randolph, Alamance, and SE Guilford counties 2-4" is all continues the way it looks now. RDU could see upwards of 5 or 6" before all is said and done.

Anywhere across the state this morning, it is best to stay home and off the roadways if you can. Temps are dropping through the 20s in many instances, and driving conditions will continue to deteriorate.

Light to moderate snow is occurring in much of North Carolina this morning. It will gradually taper off from west to east, but it will be a slow process.

Temps have dropped into the mid to upper 20s in the Triad viewing area with upper 20s to lower 30s for the Charlotte region.

Any snow that falls will accumulate, including on roadways. I think the roads are going to get pretty treacherous this morning as any water will freeze on untreated roads, and snow will only add to that problem as it accumulated.

>> Monday, January 19, 2009

I do not have any real changes to my ideas from early this morning. I am still not as confident as I would like to be at this late stage in the game, but so it goes with winter weather around this part of the country.

I continue to mention that this storm system has high bust potential. Some folks are going to be happy....some folks will wind up disappointed.

I will continue to go with a general 2-5" accumulation potential from around Gaston county up through the Charlotte metro, the Triad, and the Triangle. Like discussed earlier, and in the video below, the amounts are really entirely dependent on where a potential band of heavy snow set up tonight. Locations that remain under that band will likely see more than what I have mentioned. On the other hand, there will be some places that will undoubtedly see less than that...locations that do not make it under the band of heavier snow might struggle to see a dusting.

It remains a fluid situation, but the likely heaviest corridor of snow in my opinion could run from close to Charlotte up to the Triangle, clipping through portions of the Triad region.

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for tonight for the Charlotte metro up through the southern half of the Triad viewing area and the RDU area.

The NWS is hoisting a Winter Weather Advisory from Cleveland county up through the foothills and the immediate Triad itself for a general 1-2" snowfall. However, it is in this region that a Piedmont trough as well as upslope flow could wind up enhancing some snow totals. Some of these counties could of course be upgraded later tonight if heavier snow does develop up that way.

This is the time where you put the model charts away and simply watch radar, satellite, and observational trends.

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. The entire video focuses on out storm system tonight and tomorrow. Give it a look....

The American computer models (GFS and NAM) finally adjusted back to the European model's solution for tonight into tomorrow. The result is a much higher confidence in accumulating snow here in North Carolina.

Through the day, a rain drops or snow flakes are possible in the northern part of the state, but this will not be a big deal. The big deal arrives tonight.

Here is my thinking as of now (7am)...

A snow/rain mixture moves in by this evening into the Piedmont. As cold air rushes in at the surface and aloft, the mix turns over to all snow later this evening, and the snow continues tonight into tomorrow morning.

There will likely be what we call a deformation zone set itself up somewhere in the state, which will result in a band of heavy snow. Locations under that band will likely wind up with at least 4 or 5 inches of snow, probably more in spots. However, locations that do not get under that band of heavier snow could wind up being lucky to see a dusting.

At this point, for the Charlotte region up through the southern half of the Triad viewing region, I am going with a general 2-5" accumulation tonight into tomorrow morning. However, as discussed above, some will inevitably see less than that while some will likely see more.

The computer models will likely not handle the QPF (amount of precip) very will with this type of dynamic system, and the snow ratios will likely be higher than normal (a standard snow ratio is 10:1...i.e. 0.10" of rain = 1 inch of snow. This time around, the ratio could be more like 15:1 or 20:1). This only complicates the forecast.

I will try to keep the blog updated with any changes in my thinking as the day unfolds. And of course, as the event unfolds tonight, keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina on television for comprehensive and up to the minute coverage.

>> Sunday, January 18, 2009

Another quick post here. The 12z European continues to show a nice little snowfall for the Piedmont of North Carolina Monday night into Tuesday. In general, the GFS and NAM have not been in great agreement with that scenario, but the latest NAM (18z) seems to be trending in the direction of the Euro.

That snow chance is with the second of two disturbances that will pivot through our region. The first one could bring some passing snow showers or flurries in the Piedmont regions (especially the northern Piedmont) tomorrow.

Stay tuned. I don't have a lot of confidence in any one scenario at this point. I will be at work early tomorrow morning and will pour over all of the latest data then.

So, while there is nothing to be confident about right now, snow fans, at least you have a shot...

Some mainly light precip will move through today. Could be some sleet pellets or snow flakes mixed in with the rain drops. This has caused lots of problems up in the mountains, but it should not be a big deal in the Piedmont.

Lots of upper level energy will cruise overhead over the next few days, and there is a chance of some passing snow showers or flurries at times tomorrow and especially into Tuesday.

GFS takes our system late in the week well north of us...Euro still show winter weather potential with it.

Just wanted to post a quick update prior to leaving for church. Have a great Sunday...