Reap What You Sow

At a conference this year, some of the world’s most respected wine-makers were warned that without drastic measures, their industry would be plunged into turmoil. Why, then, are European producers so resistant to adaptation?

My father once told me that if a winemaker could make one great vintage in his lifetime, he could die a happy man,” says Jean-René Matignon, of Château Pichon­Longueville. The technical director of one of Bordeaux’s most prestigious wine producers began making wine in 1985 and was fortunate enough to have his first great vintage as soon as 1988. “After that superb year, I said to myself, ‘Well, I could tell my father I had made my one great vintage.’”

As it turned out, that was just the beginning. The company had an even better vintage in 1989, and a great one in 1990, 1995 and 1996. In fact, after almost 25 years at Pichon, Mati­gnon has enjoyed 10 top-quality vintages. “This is something my father would never have dreamed of.”

Matignon’s experience isn’t unique. Winemakers from Rioja to the Rhine and Orvieto to Oregon have been enjoy­ing unparalleled quality and consistency. Global warming, it seems, has been a boon, delivering ideal conditions in many of the world’s established winemaking regions.

Basking under temperate skies, the grapes of Château Pichon-Longueville now regularly produce great vintages.

However, more and more research suggests it may change for the worse, and at a conference in Barcelona this year, viti­culturalists and climate scientists warned that if temperatures continued to increase at the current rate, the wine industry would change beyond recognition.

“As temperatures rise in the hottest wine-producing areas,” says Richard Smart, one of the world’s pre-eminent independ­ent viticulturalists, “it will no longer be possible to grow wine varieties there successfully.” The prognosis isn’t much bet­ter in cooler and moderately warm regions either. Although producers won’t have to stop making wine, says Smart, they will have to make significant changes.

Champagne will be a thing of the past, as will Bordeaux, Burgundy, Chianti, Rioja and just about any other European wine you can think of.

“All of the regional styles will change,” says Smart. For those in Europe that have built up reputations based around regional styles of wine over decades, sometimes centuries, it could be disastrous.

But while there is a growing body of scientific research to support Smart’s predictions, many winemakers are refusing to accept them, believing the claims are exaggerated, that the science on which projections are based fails to comprehend the complexities of viticulture and also underestimates their ability to adapt to changing weather patterns.

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It was the Ancient Greeks who first introduced viniculture to Italy, France and Spain, in around 750 BC, but it took genera­tions of winemakers to establish today’s well-known regional styles. The key to producing the best wine, they found, lay in identifying which varieties performed best in their particular environment.

Despite the range of climates in which grapes can thrive, each variety also requires particular conditions to achieve op­timum ripeness, and it’s this principle that has contributed to the development of Europe’s distinctive regional wine styles. After centuries of experimentation, winemakers found that cabernet sauvignon was best suited to the Bordeaux region, for example, and chardonnay to Burgundy.

“The ideal climate will allow the vine to develop complex­ity and to absorb as much from the soil as it can without get­ting overripe,” explains Alun Griffiths, wine director of Brit­ish fine wine merchant Berry Bros & Rudd. “Which is why the best wines are made at the edges of viticultural possibility, where there is just enough sunshine to get them ripe.

“In other words, if you tried to make Bordeaux wines near­er the equator, where it’s a few degrees warmer, you’d have no trouble getting the grapes ripe, but you wouldn’t have the complexity and finesse that distinguish wines from that re­gion. It’s an incredibly delicate balance.”

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Just as meteorologists have detected these rising tempera­tures, winemakers have experienced changes first-hand. Ar­eas once considered too cool for viticulture, such as England, Belgium, the Netherlands, Canada, southern Tasmania and southern Chile—have also found their wines improving.

According to US climatologist Gregory Jones, a professor of geography at Southern Oregon University, this is a direct result of rising temperatures. His research shows that be­tween 1950 and 1999, average growing season temperatures (AGSTs) in 27 wine regions around the world increased by an average of 1.3°C. So far, this has been a good thing: for every 1°C, vintage ratings by Sotheby’s and The Wine Enthusiast for the same period increased by 10–22 points. Jones attributes this to the influence of AGSTs. “Heat accumulated during the growing season enhances ripening,” he says, “so the high­er the AGST, the better the grapes’ development.”

However, there can be too much of a good thing; too much heat means the grapes’ sugar levels are ready before other desirable elements, such as the colour, acid levels, tan­nins. This is why some winemakers in warmer areas—parts of Spain, Portugal, Italy, Australia, Argentina, California and South Africa—have increasingly faced overripeness and the possibility of unbalanced wines. In California’s Napa Valley, one of the world’s best regions for cabernet sauvignon, up to 55 per cent of winemakers are removing alcohol and adding acid to ensure freshness in their wines.

Subterranean chambers—in which many wines are fermented and stored—could become the only dependable climate for future winemakers.

According to IPCC’s predictions, Jones says, changes in global average annual temperatures will mean that estab­lished wine regions may no longer be suitable for their tra­ditional grape varieties; it may take a change of only 1°C for some areas to become quite unsuitable for their varieties.

The 27 wine regions he analysed will change, on average, by 2°C, and some considerably more.

In Bordeaux, he says, the temperatures will be close to the limits for the red varieties currently grown there and ex­ceed those of the whites. In Rioja, temperatures would be too high for the Tempranillo grape, which dominates the region. “We’re talking about a place such as Burgundy being as warm as Avignon in the south of France, and producers not able to grow pinot noir there any more.”

Richard Smart warns that the implications of a 2°C change are without precedent. “Cabernets produced in Bordeaux, for example, will be like those made in the south of France at present, which doesn’t have anything like the same reputa­tion.” If producers want to maintain quality, he says, they will have no choice but to change their style and find other varie­ties better adapted to the increased temperatures.

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Jones’ work has certainly made a big splash in the media, but many winemakers dispute his observations and challenge his projections.

Château Pichon-Longueville’s Jean-René Matignon points out that producers already have to deal with significant vari­ations in temperature at a very local level. “On a summer’s afternoon, if I go from Pichon to [Château] Latour, which is just across the road, it can be up to two degrees warmer in Latour because it is protected from the wind.” Besides, expo­sure to sunlight during the ripening period is more signifi­cant than temperature, as is a good temperature fluctuation between day and night.

He also disputes Jones’ conclusion that higher tempera­tures are the principal reason for the improvement in quality in recent years, putting much of that down to viticulture. “Winemakers know much more about the management of the vineyard than we did 10 or 15 years ago.” In fact, all the winemakers and some of the climatologists to whom we spoke agreed that temperature projections on their own tell us little about the future viability of traditional wine-growing areas.

According to Hans Schultz, professor of viticulture at the Geisenheim Research Institute in Germany, little is known about the ability of grape varieties to cope in warmer tem­peratures. “All of the research so far only speculates on the upper limits of these varieties,” he says. “So we can easily make assumptions about where it would be possible to grow cabernet sauvignon in new areas. But we don’t [yet] know whether it would still be suitable in Bordeaux.”

Some European winemakers might exercise the option of shifting to other grape varieties to stay in business, but for those who already produce wines in the warmest climates there may be nowhere to turn as the heat goes on. Growing non-traditional grapes in areas made famous for particular styles is problematic too: the vineyards of Rioja—renowned for regional classics made from grapes like Tempranillo, Mazuelo and Graciano—have amassed centuries of knowledge and expertise specific to these varietal-terroir combinations.

Many are also skeptical about Jones’ solution of shifting classic wine styles into areas once considered too cool. The sheer complexity of the climatic influences in winemaking means that it’s unlikely that anyone can produce Bordeaux-style wines in northern France, or Champagne in England. Says Olivier Brun of Mumm, Perrier-Jouet: “It’s easy to look around the world and find regions where the temperature and even the soil might be suitable. But there are a huge number of other variables that influence the local climate and affect the evolution of the grapes and the style of the wine.”

For instance, Champagne’s vines are planted on slopes, which means that the grapes are affected by the way the air circulates around them, while in Bordeaux, where the vines are planted on plains, there is no such effect. Bordeaux also receives 50 per cent more rainfall than Champagne.

“Southern England may be able to produce some very good sparkling wines in future,” says Brun, “but, because of its relative humidity, it could never reproduce the style of Champagne. And for the same reason you will never be able to produce the Bordeaux style in the Loire or Champagne.”

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One of the few producers to have taken more serious adap­tation measures is the Torres family, one of Spain’s biggest and best-known winemakers, which has planted vines in the cooler areas of northern Catalunia near the foothills of the Pyrenees. But few winemakers are willing—or in the position—to take such drastic action. Why would they? For those who have built up a reputation based on the relationship be­tween their vines and their terroir, replanting new varieties or moving their vineyards to cooler regions would effectively mean starting from scratch. Besides, many are enjoying some of their best vintages ever.

Some aren’t yet convinced that the recent increases in temperature are part of a permanent trend, particularly as 2007 produced the coolest summer in Europe since the early 1990s. Even those who acknowledge the reality of glo­bal warming believe they’ll cope. “I’m not convinced that climate change is going to end production in Bordeaux or Champagne,” says Brun. “If you look at the past, we’ve had some years with enormous levels of sugar and we still pro­duced good quality wine.”

If temperatures do continue to rise, many producers be­lieve they have or will develop the viticultural techniques to ensure their continued success. Ernst Loosen, who took over his father’s riesling vineyards in the Rhine and Mosel valleys in Germany in 1988, has also been making wine on the US west coast in the Columbia Valley, Washington State, since 1999. The experience, he says, has taught him how to use viticultural techniques to grow a cool-climate variety in a hotter climate.

“I have no doubt that when it comes down to it, the wine-makers who have the most skill in the vineyard are still going to be able to make good quality wine,” he says.

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Perhaps the most significant steps towards adaptation will be those taken by regulating bodies in Europe, which are now talking about following the lead of French regulators who, in late 2006, reversed hundreds of years of tradition by allowing farmers to irrigate their vines.

It is clear that most European producers would prefer to ex­periment in the vineyard than relocate it, but Jones cautions against tradition for tradition’s sake. “We can’t afford to be sen­timental,” he says. “There is a social construct that we have to­day that makes people think we’re steadfast and that Burgundy will always be Burgundy and so on. But we have to adapt and work with the opportunities that arise. Who knows—we may find that in 30 years, the Puget Sound in Washington State is producing better pinot noirs than Burgundy!”

Seeds of change

It seems that Europe’s farmers have already begun adapting to climate change. Generally speaking, there is a north–south divide, with those in northern regions enjoying higher yields from increased temperatures, while those in the south are beginning to suffer from higher temperatures and increased periods of drought.

So far the biggest changes have been seen in cereal crops in northern Europe. In Scandinavia and the UK, for example, high-yielding silage maize has replaced traditional dairy-fodder crops such as whole-crop cereals and fodder beet. And in Belgium, grain maize—used to feed pigs and other non-ruminant livestock—accounted for 20 per cent of total cereal land in 2006, compared with virtually zero in 1961. Yields of the same crop have increased by 250 per cent.

However, increased winter rainfall of up to 30 per cent has forced farmers in low-lying coastal regions of Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium to modify their drainage systems, and in some cases abandon cultivation altogether. There is also evidence that the same phenomenon has increased levels of nitrate and phosphorus leaching and could be responsible for up to 40 per cent of such agricultural pollution.

While there have been some increases in yields in southern Europe, agronomists say that the biggest changes are yet to come. Says Jørgen E. Olesen, professor of agroecology and environment at the University of Aarhus, Denmark: “There is no doubt that drought will be the biggest factor in countries such as Spain, Greece and Italy, in some parts of France and parts of the Balkans, which already rely on irrigation to cultivate certain crops. It’s not so much the general changes in temperature and rainfall that will be the problem, but the extreme events.”

Spain and Greece already use 80 per cent of their fresh water for irrigation, Olesen points out. “As we see more droughts, water will become more precious, and it wouldn’t be worth irrigating cereals and other cheap commodity crops.” In this case, he says, farmers are likely to switch from irrigated, spring and summer cropping of maize and soya bean, for example, to dry-land or rain-fed winter crops such as wheat. “The problem here is that the yields will be substantially lower.”

Fruits and vegetables commonly associated with the Mediterranean—aubergines, courgettes, tomatoes, peaches—will be grown further north as Spain and Italy become increasingly hot and dry. But Olesen doubts that these crops will reach northern regions, as has been suggested. “It all depends on how much the climate changes, but I’m not sure we will see such a dramatic shift. It’s more likely that the farmers in the north will benefit from higher yields of those crops they are already growing and from being able to plant higher yielding crops such as maize.”

In the swings and roundabouts of climate change, northern land masses like Great Britain—an historically marginal producer of wine and a range of other temperate horticultural products—could expect to pick up the slack from Mediterranean countries.