christopher price

One Scout's Breakdown of Patriots-Saints: New England has to keep Drew Brees sidelined

FOXBORO -- The Patriots return to Foxboro to meet the Saints Sunday afternoon, a game that presents a serious challenge to a New England team looking to get back on track after suffering its first loss of the season.

When it comes to New Orleans, quarterback Drew Brees has a number of elite offensive options at his disposal, including tight end Jimmy Graham (37 catches, a league-best 593 yards, six touchdowns), wide receiver Marques Colston (23 catches, 313 yards, one touchdown) and running backs Darren Sproles (411 total yards from scrimmage, 26 receptions) and Pierre Thomas (48 carries, 137 rushing yards). The group is in the top 10 in passing yards per game (326.8, second in the NFL), total offense (405 yards per game, fourth in the NFL) and points per game (26.8, ninth in the league).

In this edition of “Scout’s Take,” one NFC scout who has watched both the Patriots and Saints takes a look at some of the points of emphasis for New England heading into Sunday’s game. (Per usual, we have the scout’s statements in italics, with our notes underneath.)

”You stop Drew Brees and that offense by keeping them off the field. Expect the Patriots to try and utilize the same game plan they did the other week against the Falcons. The Saints have tough matchups and cause you to defend the field vertically and horizontally. You have to slow down routes by getting hands on receivers, and you have to squeeze throwing lanes on Brees.”

Think of the old game plans New England used to try to slow down Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and the rest of the Colts a decade or so ago: lengthy, sustained drives with lots of slowdown offense. There’s no Ty Law or Richard Seymour hanging around, but the basic philosophies are still the same. The Patriots have to play good complementary football -- put together those same sorts of drives they had when they were successful against Manning -- to keep Brees off the field as long as possible, and play physical defense against the New Orleans offense, particularly Jimmy Graham and the Saints’ two impressive pass-catching running backs in Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas. Hit the two backs before they get out of the backfield and into their routes, and assign double coverage (Aqib Talib and some help?) on Graham.

”The Patriots have to make up for loss of Vince Wilfork by committee and scheme. But it’s hard to replace all the things he does -- he’s the rock on a young defense.”

For the rest of the season, New England has to try to create a sustainable defensive front without Wilfork, a big challenge. Without Wilfork, the Patriots will lean on a variety of options up front, a group that will include young defensive tackles like Joe Vellano and Chris Jones. The duo had their moments last week against the Bengals but were a mixed bag at best. Going forward, two things will be worth watching. One, how much they can get out of Tommy Kelly. The veteran was hobbled in the late stages of the loss to Cincinnati and was not at practice when the Patriots took the field on Wednesday. Without Wilfork, Kelly will serve as the unquestioned leader of the defensive tackle group. And two, what sort of impact could Andre Neblett have this weekend after the former Panthers nose tackle was signed on Wednesday.

”If you’re the Patriots, there’s no need to panic on offense. They have one loss, but the addition of Gronkowski and keeping Danny Amendola healthy will help some of their offensive woes.”

New England certainly would welcome Gronkowski back with open arms -- according to ESPN Stats & Information, since the start of 2010, the Patriots offense averages a touchdown every 18 plays with Gronkowski on the field. When he’s off the field, that ratio drops to one touchdown every 28 plays. The return of Gronkowski also would provide a colossal boost in the red zone, an area that’s been a huge problem for the New England offense in 2013. The big tight end has caught 32 red zone touchdowns since he was drafted in 2010, the most by any player in the NFL in that span. Meanwhile, the 2013 Patriots are the second-worst team in the league when it comes to scoring touchdowns in the red zone -- they have six touchdowns in 17 trips inside the 20. The 35.3 rate is 31st overall, leading only the woeful Jags (33.3 percent). It’s also worth mentioning that the Patriots could have a winnable matchup when it comes to the ground game -- the Saints have allowed an average of 5.4 yards per carry, the worst total in the league. They’re also middle of the pack when it comes to just about every other run defense metric.

”The Patriots are the example of a well-coached team with fringe talent in some areas. Right now, they can effectively coach their way to wins by being efficient and not beating themselves. They are vulnerable if teams have better people where they are weak, and those teams can use the scheme to exploit New England’s weaknesses.”

Despite the offseason losses, as well as some of the struggles they’ve endured on offense since the start of the season, the Patriots clearly are still thought of as one of the more dangerous teams in the NFL, particularly when you consider the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady combination. At the same time, it’s clear there are some vulnerabilities opponents have been able to exploit. In the short term, the New England coaching staff needs to worry about minimizing those issues against a high-powered offense like the Saints. Countering with some longer, sustained drives on offense and finding a way to slow down an impressive passing game ultimately will go a long way toward securing a win this weekend for New England.

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