Sunday, April 29, 2012

Added few interesting stocks into trend following report, Apple, Google, Microsoft + few solar companies. Check it out. Currently the longer term trend is not favoring bulls. Apple would have long signal only above 654, so there could be more down ahead. Exxon got long signal and will stay above 85.3 and there could be some opportunities

The backtesting and forward testing results have been proven to be quite reliable.

I have seen arguments that the average volume has been low, but I cannot see any point in that since the volume seems to be decent.

Dax risk indicator has became quite high. Previously when this indicator has climbed above 70, there hasn't been much room for the upside. It is still expected that Dax could touch 7000 before consolidating.

3 month's biggest gainer is Man (+20,3%) while the biggest loser is Metro (-20%). At the same time Dax is up +4%.

Currently the correlation between the stocks and index is lowering, which is a good for stock picking and diversifying. Nowadays diversifying doesn't help in a downtrends, but fortunately uptrends still offer great opportunities.

If you read between the lines, the current short term trend seems to be up (for a while...).

In a technical perspective, it looks like Dax is trying to touch 7000 or Fibonacci 6974 (78,6%). There is also intermediate declining trend line abobe 7000, thus judging bigger trend. Currently the longer term uptrend still holds confirmed with a touch to major rising trend line and major support at 6544. Additionally short term declining trend lines for Dax and RSI were broken upside. RSI and MACD are also showing some strength.

The variation between stocks has diverged lately, thus giving good stock picking opportunities.

Correlation between index and stocks has been quite high and recently lowering a little bit. I hope it will lower more. If the correlation is very high, it is somehow alerting, because usually correlation rises near or during downtrends.

Risk indicator is already quite high, so there could be 1-3 days consolidation ahead.

Oversold condition easened, but we need to watch this careful.

Trading performance has been quite pleasant lately even the increased positions has caused more volatility.

Dax is flirting with Fibonacci level 6544. So, watch out careful if it breaks and thus making the October high at 6435 act as a short term downside target. RSI and MACD are still pointing the way down.

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