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Hurricane Season

The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season has a 45% chance of being above normal, according to forecasters at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA's) Climate Prediction Center.

This is compared to a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season and only a 20 percent chance of a below normal season.

The forecasters have predicted a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

This year’s likelihood for an above normal season is being linked to three factors; a weak or non-existent El Niño; near or above average sea surface temperatures and an average or weaker than average vertical wind shear.

Although the hurricane season begins on June 1 through to November 30, it is not unusual to have storm or hurricane development outside of this time frame.