It’s slightly more likely that major developed economies will fall into recession by year’s end, according to a new International Monetary Fund report.

But you still may not want to count on it in 2016, as the IMF’s probabilities remain below 25% for the U.S. and under 50% for Japan’s troubled economy.

The IMF on Tuesday released the chart below, showing how it projects a higher probability of recession over a four-quarter horizon for the U.S., the euro area and Japan.

IMF’s World Economic Outlook report

While the chance of the U.S. entering recession in 2016 is between 20% and 25%, that’s still an increase. In October, the IMF put the odds at less than 20% — also looking ahead by about a year at that time — and at less than 15% in an April 2015 estimate.

The latest probabilities are shown via the blue bars, while the October and year-ago forecasts are represented by red and yellow dots, respectively.

The new recession projections have come in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report, which was released on Tuesday. The organization lowered its estimate for global growth, citing market volatility, slowing momentum in developed economies and continued difficulties for emerging markets, as it also highlighted a growing backlash against trade and global ties.

Victor
Reklaitis

Victor Reklaitis is MarketWatch's Money & Politics reporter and is based in Washington, D.C. Follow him on Twitter @VicRek.

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