Election News

February 19, 2019

I'm running for president. I am asking you to join me today as part of an unprecedented and historic grassroots campaign that will begin with at least 1 million people from across the country. Say you're in: https://t.co/KOTx0WZqRfpic.twitter.com/T1TLH0rm26

Sanders 2016 campaign, where he finished runner-up to Hillary Clinton, helped push the party to the left. The question will be whether he can stand out in a much larger 2020 field that will include a number of ideologically similar Democrats.

February 18, 2019

The 'Road to 270' calculator is now available below the 2020 Electoral College Map. The feature uses your forecast to determine the number of winning combinations* available for each party, as well as any possible 269-269 ties. As you change your map, the number of combinations automatically updates.

For example, this map reflects the nine locations decided by a 3% or less popular vote margin in 2016.

There are a pretty even number of paths to 270 electoral votes. However, if you give Florida to the GOP, the number of Democratic options becomes much more limited -- with several states becoming must wins.

A combinations detail page is also available; it allows you to look at the specific paths available based on your map. This page is also interactive, letting you further narrow down the possibilities.

* To keep things manageable, undecided states are assumed to be decided from most to fewest electoral votes. For a very simple example, let's say a party has 251 electoral votes, with PA (20) and NH (4) remaining to be decided. Since PA alone will get the party to 270, that is the only winning combination. In this case, winning or losing NH doesn't matter in terms of reaching 270, and so PA + NH is not displayed. See this article for more information on this tool.

February 15, 2019

Former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld is exploring a primary challenge against President Trump. Weld announced the launch of an exploratory committee at a New Hampshire breakfast on Friday morning.

"It is time for all people of good will to take a stand and plant a flag...It's for this reason that I have today established an Exploratory Committee to pursue the possibility for my running for the Presidency of the United States as a Republican in the 2020 election." pic.twitter.com/LUrsyyo1fP

Weld served two terms as Massachusetts governor during the 1990's. More recently, he was the Libertarian Party's vice-presidential nominee in 2016. On the ballot with Gary Johnson, the Party received over 3% of the nationwide vote. This was the best 3rd party performance since Ross Perot in 1996.

Challenging an Incumbent

It remains to be seen how much traction Weld will get or if he proceeds with a campaign. However, it is worth noting that the history of serious incumbent primary challenges in the modern era is not a good one - either for the challenger or the sitting president. A strong primary challenge highlights fractures in a party, and often weakens the incumbent in the general election. We saw this most recently in 1992, where George H.W. Bush fended off Pat Buchanan, but lost the general election to Bill Clinton. Interestingly, that situation is somewhat the mirror of today. Trump represents the now-ascendant populist wing of the party, while someone like Weld would potentially appeal to the type of GOP championed by the Bushes.

In 1976 and 1980, presidents Ford and Carter faced serious primary challenges. Both prevailed but were defeated in the general election. Another type of situation occurred in 1968, where President Johnson faced a challenge from Sen. Eugene McCarthy, who ran on an anti-Vietnam War platform. McCarthy's strong early showing caused Johnson to abandon his re-election effort. Ultimately, McCarthy didn't win the nomination and Republican Richard Nixon was elected in November of that year.

February 14, 2019

Politico reports that President Trump's advisers are focusing their efforts on three of the declared 2020 Democratic presidential contenders. Senators Cory Booker (NJ), Kamala Harris (CA) and Elizabeth Warren (MA) are seen by the campaign as the most viable candidates at this point.

The advisers believe the list of Democrats in the race will grow significantly before summer and expect that their target list will evolve over time. Trump himself believes former Vice-President Joe Biden would be the most formidable general election rival.

Overall, there are 9 Democrats in the 2020 field. We've got 25 names on our list of prospective and announced candidates.

February 10, 2019

There are 17 Democratic women in the U.S. Senate. With her announcement Sunday, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar becomes the 4th of those to join the 2020 presidential race. She follows Kamala Harris (CA), Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) and Elizabeth Warren (MA). Warren officially joined the race on Saturday. There are now nine* Democrats seeking the party's nomination.

Interestingly, of all the Democrats that may run in 2020, none are from a state that was as closely-contested as Minnesota in 2016. Hillary Clinton prevailed here by just 1.5% over Donald Trump, as it nearly joined the blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that powered Trump's win. On the other hand, Minnesota has not voted for a GOP nominee since Richard Nixon in 1972, the longest such state single-party streak^ in the nation. The Cook Political Report has started the state as Leans Democratic in 2020.

* Including two that have formed exploratory committees; one step short of a formal announcement.

^ Washington, D.C. has had 3 electoral votes since 1964. It has never voted Republican. Curious about your state's streak? See our Same Since Electoral Maps.

February 7, 2019

After Woodall's announcement; Bourdeaux indicated she would run again in in 2020. The race is again likely to be closely-contested. As the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes, "the race to represent the 7th District, which includes portions of Gwinnett and Forsyth County, was the closest congressional race in the country last year. Once lily white and deeply conservative, it’s now at the center of the demographic shifts that have transformed Atlanta’s wealthy suburbs into political battlegrounds."

February 1, 2019

11 states, as well as Nebraska's 2nd district were decided by less than a 5% popular vote margin in 2016. There are 64 possible ties based on that group of locations. An additional seven locations were decided by approximately 5-10% that year.

Use the tool to look at what ties are possible based on any combination* of these 19 locations. Over time, we'll update the locations in the tie finder as needed based on how the 2020 race evolves.

In this random example, there are five possible tie combinations:

If no nominee reaches 270 electoral votes, the presidency is decided by the U.S. House of Representatives, with each state receiving a single vote, regardless of the size of its delegation. The GOP currently holds a 26-22 lead across the 50 states, with two ties. This would favor that party in a 269 tie scenario. However, that is not set in stone, as any tie in the 2020 presidential election would be broken in January, 2021, by the House members elected that November.

Booker, who will be 50 in April, has been in the U.S. Senate for about six years. He won a special election in October, 2013 to complete the term of Frank Lautenberg, who had died earlier that year. In 2014, he was elected to a full six-year term. Prior to serving in the Senate, Booker was a two-term mayor of Newark.

Booker is the 6th Democrat to formally join the 2020 field, with another three having formed exploratory committees, a step just short of an official announcement.

January 30, 2019

The Washington Examiner reports "top Republicans in Texas are sounding the alarm about 2020, warning President Trump could lose the usually reliably red state unless he devotes resources and attention to it typically reserved for electoral battlegrounds."

Texas hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since Jimmy Carter won here by about 3% in 1976. Trump won the state by nine points in 2016. While not particularly close, it was the smallest GOP margin since Bob Dole's five point win here in 1996.

Could Trump win reelection if he were to lose Texas and its 38 electoral votes? Probably not, unless this was strictly a regional issue and he was able to offset it by building upon his 2016 realignment of the electoral map. That year, he flipped Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, states that hadn't voted Democratic in a generation. In addition, he narrowly lost Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine's at-large electoral votes.

In the scenario below, we assume a loss in Texas correlates with a similar outcome in Arizona, making the entire Southwestern part of the country Democratic in 2020. However, Trump is able to offset this by carrying all his other 2016 states and winning Minnesota. This would leave the election to be decided - or perhaps end in a 269-269 tie - by the six electoral votes available in Maine and New Hampshire.

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