Best approach to get Detroit Tigers' Miguel Cabrera out: Don't start him off with a strike -- or a ball

Miguel Cabrera hits a three-run home run Wednesday afternoon in the third inning off John Danks.AP Photo

CHICAGO -- Pitchers should be very leery of falling behind in the count against Miguel Cabrera. But they probably shouldn't throw him a first-pitch strike either.

Cabrera hit a first-pitch fastball from left-hander John Danks in the third inning for a three-run home run Wednesday afternoon in a 6-4 win over the Chicago White Sox.

"He was quick on it," Tigers manager Jim Leyland said. "He just fired his hands. It looked like a cutter. I
don't know if it was for sure, but it looked like it. He just pulled his
hands in, and they were like lightning through the zone. He's
remarkable."

Cabrera is hitting .487 (38-for-78) with 12 home runs, 34 RBIs and a 1.474 OPS this season when he puts the first pitch in play.

Those numbers, simply put, are ridiculous.

"Pitchers are trained to get ahead in the count and throw that
first-pitch strike," Torii Hunter said. "With Miggy, you want to get ahead so you can play
with him a little bit, but he won't allow it."

Leyland said that Cabrera sometimes just knows what's coming.

"He's one of those guys that's got that extra sense," Leyland said. "He smells what they're trying to do to him. To me, it looked like he was looking for that pitch (from Danks)."

So pitchers should throw Cabrera a ball, right? If he's hitting almost .500 with power when he swings at the first pitch, then something out of the strike zone seems like a good idea.

"If every instinct you have is wrong," Jerry once told George on a Seinfeld episode, "then the opposite would have to be right."

But the opposite approach fails against Cabrera as well.

Cabrera is hitting .360 (50-for-139) with 12 home runs and 34 RBIs with a 1.248 OPS in at-bats in which he gets ahead 1-0 in the count. Those numbers aren't too far off from his overall season numbers (.360, 1.144 OPS), which means at-bats that start with ball one are about average for Cabrera.

Of course, those overall numbers have Cabrera in contention for his second consecutive Triple Crown. And they surpass the numbers he had at this point last season, when he went on to win the Triple Crown.

Besides, as Hunter pointed out, a pitcher can throw a pitch out of the strike zone to Cabrera -- a "ball" -- and still pay the ultimate price.

"Some of those pitches are balls," Hunter said. "He's hitting balls out of the park. Low
and in, low and away, up and away, up and in. … Pitchers are not throwing strikes down the
middle. They're throwing balls, and he's still hitting them. Tip your
cap."

So, what's the best approach to deal with Cabrera? He's hitting just .180 in at-bats after falling behind 0-2, so getting two strikes on him seems like a great idea. But pitchers rarely get 0-2 counts against Cabrera. That's happened just 92 times this season.

Besides, as we established earlier, the guy hits almost .500 when he puts the first pitch in play. (In addition to that, Cabrera is hitting above .400 with an OPS above 1.100 when he puts the 0-1 pitch in play.) Throwing two strikes to Cabrera ends with him doing damage much more often than it ends with him falling behind 0-2.

In the end, there is only one surefire to make sure Cabrera doesn't drive in a run: Throw him a ball. Make sure it's way out of the strike zone.