Will Obama lose Saudi Arabia?

posted at 10:12 am on March 25, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

The US has long relied on two major alliances in the Middle East to maintain its strength, push for democracy, and supply itself with energy — Israel and Saudi Arabia. Barack Obama has managed to put distance between the US and Israel after a year of bumbling on peace negotiations created even more obstacles to talks than existed when Obama took office, and now Israel finds itself on the brink of war yet again in Gaza. Thanks to the vacillating and contradictory responses to crises sweeping the region, Saudi Arabia may be rethinking its friendship with the US now:

The United States and Saudi Arabia — whose conflicted relationship has survived oil shocks, the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and the U.S. invasion of Iraq — are drifting apart faster than at any time in recent history, according to diplomats, analysts and former U.S. officials.

The breach, punctuated by a series of tense diplomatic incidents in the past two weeks, could have profound implications for the U.S. role in the Middle East, even as President Barack Obama juggles major Arab upheavals from Libya to Yemen.

The Saudi monarchy, which itself has been loathe to introduce democratic reforms, watched with deepening alarm as the White House backed Arab opposition movements and helped nudge from power former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, another long-time U.S. ally, according to U.S. and Arab officials.

That alarm turned to horror when the Obama administration demanded that the Saudi-backed monarchy of Bahrain negotiate with protesters representing the country’s majority Shiite Muslim population. To Saudi Arabia’s Sunni rulers, Bahrain’s Shiites are a proxy for Shiite Iran, its historic adversary.

Who could have predicted this? Well … just about anyone who wondered how the sight of an American President throwing an ally under the bus would look to our other allies in the region. Obama took 16 days to demand Moammar Gaddafi’s ouster, but only waited half of that time to tell Mubarak that he needed to “transition” power immediately. Syrians have filled the streets for ten days and had the Bashar Assad regime fire on them, killing dozens, and yet Barack Obama hasn’t uttered a word about it. Even his PR flacks are taking a “wait and see” attitude, literally:

On Thursday, the White House press secretary, Jay Carney, issued a statementcondemning what he called “the Syrian government’s brutal repression of demonstrations, in particular the violence and killings of civilians at the hands of security forces.”

The Obama administration said that it was watching to see if Mr. Assad would follow through with the promises made Thursday.

He added, “We were, and obviously remain, deeply troubled by the violence and civilian deaths, especially in Dara’a, at the hands of security forces.”

For Mubarak, Obama appeared on television after eight days to issue a thinly-veiled demand for his ouster, and Mubarak hadn’t attacked demonstrators in the streets at that time. Recall that Mubarak had also promised reforms in the remaining seven months of his “presidency,” a pledge that Obama refused to take seriously. Robert Gibbs reinforced the demand for Mubarak’s removal the very next day by saying that “immediately” meant “yesterday.

Contrast that with those nations openly hostile to the US and the West. It took weeks for Obama to even suggest support for Green Revolution protesters in the streets of Tehran in the summer of 2009. Now Obama will trust Bashar Assad on reform where he refused to do so with Hosni Mubarak. Small wonder America’s friends in the region are more than a little non-plussed.

Granted, the Saudi royal family’s absolute rule generates problems of its own, but it also provides one of the few bulwarks to Iranian hegemony in the region. It also controls the flow of oil into markets from where the US imports it, since we refuse to pursue our own resources here at home. That makes them strategically important and the relationship crucial to actual national-security concerns for the US. If Obama loses the Saudis, it will create economic, diplomatic, and military chaos that will take years to correct.

Teke184 – not to get all Glennbeckian here, but if we lose Saudi Arabia and things continue as they are, we really are headed for an all out war of massive proportions.

WashingtonsWake on March 25, 2011 at 10:18 AM

Hence the comment about “fallout of one type or another”.

If Saudi and Jordan fall, I predict another pan-Islamic attack on Israel like we used to see in the 60s and 70s. If that happens, I predict Israel pulls out their nukes and gives a parting gift to the various countries involved.

Once Bahrain and Yemen topple to the mobs…does anyone think for one tiny moment that the House of Saud will not vaporize seemingly overnight?

Whilst the West dithered and dickered over how many moderate Moslems there are across the globe, with the Obamatrons blathering about how racist such a thought could be, the “religion of peace” is well into building its new caliphate…one mob at a time…and we watch it happen and refuse to admit that we are in deep doggy doo doo.

If the history of this era is told honestly, Obama will go down as one of the most damaging Presidents in all of history. I’ve written elsewhere that the main pillars of isolationism seem to be a) That we don’t need allies, b) That other nations are better off without us, and c) We have no enemies in the world.

Saudi Arabia will put paid to pillar (a), but at a terrible price to us and to the world. Are you ready for $9/gallon gasoline? Are you ready for the Moslem world to explode in ravenous bloodlust? Are you ready for China to be Saudi Arabia’s new best friend? Because that’s where we’re going, and the only thing that can stop it is irrational faith on the part of Saudi Arabia.

This only makes sense if you view it as an attempt to take down the United States of America. Snubbing our close ally Britain, cutting off our ally in Mubarak, stopping US drilling in the Gulf of Mexico while promoting Brazilian off shore drilling (which we’ll buy thus transferring more American wealth to other nations), ticking off the largest exporter of oil (under my plan, electricity rates will necessarily skyrocket) and getting us into a vague war with Libya. Oh, and cheapening the dollar too. Jimmy Carter may have been a well meaning fool, but I never questioned his commitment to America, while he was president. The Whine, I do question whether or not he has it out for the US. Not just unAmerican, but anti-American.

Obama wants to destroy America, and damaging our reasonably good relationship with Saudi Arabia furthers that goal. Moreover, that would help Iran and the radical jihadist movement, so Obama gets a two-fer.

It also controls the flow of oil into markets from where the US imports it, since we refuse to pursue our own resources here at home. That makes them strategically important and the relationship crucial to actual national-security concerns for the US.

Boy, it would be great if SA and the Russkies could become BFF and form a monopoly. What could be better for energy seekers?

Isn’t this just an extension of the Left’s “hate America first” attitude? Their theory is, we’re Americans, we care about America, we can change it, let’s hate America so we can change it. So this is “hate America’s allies”. What other explanation could there be?

Pres. WTF will have hell to pay when energy prices skyrocket and cost of living soars. Just hope if it happens, it happens before Nov 2012.

petefrt on March 25, 2011 at 10:31 AM

Since the Middle East “protests” are up to 3 governments tossed and are active across the remainder of the region, I can see this accelerating throughout 2011.

The Libya situation was enough to send gas above $4 / gallon in many areas before Japan took it in the shorts from the quake and tsunamis. If another major oil-producing country, ESPECIALLY Saudi, goes into turmoil, we’ll see $6 / gallon gas overnight, if not higher.

Obama has managed to create at least 3 scenarios which could destroy our relationship with the Saudis.

1. The protests that have hit other Arab countries hit Saudi Arabia in earnest. As we’ve seen, at a certain point, it becomes impossible to control the protesters. Even the Saudi monarchy could fall in the face of persistent protests, and their likely response to those protests. If Saudi shoots a few dozen demonstrators, will they get the same treatment form us that Syria is getting? Or will they get the treatment Libya is getting?

2. The new power structure in the Middle East could favor Iran to the point that they are able to force the Saudis to pull away from us. Or they could just invade – you think Obama would really put more boots on the ground to help them?

3. The Saudis may think that America is a fickle partner and throw their lot in with China or Russia, whose money and support comes with no annoying lectures about democracy.

The irony is that the picture posted for this segment has two groups it really pisses off: Conservatives and Al Qaeda. And now with the Middle East in flames, I am sure al qaeda sends that picture around as a recruiting tool, when Obama thought he was being a new era US Pres. It would be funny if it was not going to lead to more al qaeda terrorists which I am sure right now it is doing

It also controls the flow of oil into markets from where the US imports it, since we refuse to pursue our own resources here at home. That makes them strategically important and the relationship crucial to actual national-security concerns for the US.
Boy, it would be great if SA and the Russkies could become BFF and form a monopoly. What could be better for energy seekers?

a capella on March 25, 2011 at 10:29 AM

Not going to happen. Russia does not and has not ever gotten along with Muslims in their “states” and or foreign nations, like the Afghan War.

Russians are far too greedy to play nice with anyone or anything they can compete with.

Name 1 prominent and legit country (GDP, political stability) that Russia has had long standing ties with… you wont. They either dominate or isolate – that is the Russian Doctrine.

Well this eternal knot, and pit in my stomach sure is great for losing weight…but it’s not good on the stress levels.

My God, did America really deserve this idiot? Really??? If so, and 52% bought Obama’s crap….I’ve got some great stuff to get rid of anything that ails you. Oh sure it’s just dirt, and twigs in a bottle, but 52% are stupid enough to buy it. Right???

If the history of this era is told honestly, Obama will go down as one of the most damaging Presidents in all of history.

njcommuter on March 25, 2011 at 10:24 AM

It’ll never happen, because 99.9% of all “historians” in the US are Democrats, and 99.9% of all “historians” in the rest of the world are liberals.

They’ve never written honest accounts of how terrible FDR really was, have covered up for JFK, and have admitted embellishing LBJ’s “legacy” for decades at his Presidential Library. They have pretty much all given Clinton a pass as well.

Russians are far too greedy to play nice with anyone or anything they can compete with.

Name 1 prominent and legit country (GDP, political stability) that Russia has had long standing ties with… you wont. They either dominate or isolate – that is the Russian Doctrine.

Odie1941 on March 25, 2011 at 10:38 AM

I’m inclined to agree with you, but let me ask: Has there ever been a time in the past when Russia had the same opportunity to extort the west based on a scarce commodity they control? This is the new Russia, and in the heart of every good capitalist, lies the desire to monopolize. Putin appears to have mastered the art of crony-capitalism well, and he has old scores to settle.

Hey, Arabs, do you still like the BHØ now that he has expanded American military action in north Africa with no plan to end hostilities, no exit strategy and no concrete set of goals?
.
Just be glad of this: you don’t have to put up with this “stool” every day like we do.

Granted, the Saudi royal family’s absolute rule generates problems of its own, but it also provides one of the few bulwarks to Iranian hegemony in the region.

“There stands Abdullah, like a stonewall.”

It is rather fanciful to think of Saudi arms as a bulwark of anything other than lies and evil.
They finance 4/5ths of the Jihad in the world but they sell teh Precious, so that is ignored. You get what you deserve when you compare the costs of your Towers, people and Military and find it an acceptable exchange for no interruptions in oil supply.

The House of Saud made its bed in the desert with fanatical Wahabbists a century and more ago. Always was support to the House of Saud promised… until the House of Saud is needed no longer, that is. It isn’t just America’s reaction in Egypt, Libya and non-reaction in Iran, Syria, Tunisia and Jordan, although that does play its role. No, that support to the fanatics was always on the promise of terror abroad, security at home.

It doesn’t work that way.

Terror is a threat to all Nations due to its nature, that being of savage man making war to his own whims and desires.

Now with a younger generation that is out of work, not allowed to work, and able to get their hands on lovely western technology like video cellphones, the brittleness of the Wahabbi doctrine to technology is shown. They don’t like it that boys and girls can chat amongst themselves doing as they wish with no one to oversee them. Yes they detest America, but the victims will always and ever be first at home when this regime starts to falter. Wild-eyed Islamists are starting to see the world change before their eyes into something never promised them and the only thing they can think of is to bring it all down.

Just like the Left who sees their lust for a doctrine responsible for 10’s of millions dead being ushered out by free people able to disintermediate government. Disintermediate clerics. Disintermediate even the Great Firewall of China. They all want a world that is forever stopped so they can have their ‘perfect’ time… a time that never was, never came and will only cause catastrophe not utopia.

The House of Saud has choices ahead, hard choices.

They can feebly try to stop religious fervor or, finally, realize that they have been the fools and start to disintermediate the clerics from government. That might mean some clerics getting sudden lead poisoning or losing a head here and there, but the message would be clear and stark. It wouldn’t work, of course, but the first government to crack this way, internally, will start the project… and all the Islamists already have their petty factions and groups and see each other as the most vile of heretics that they just have to work with. Temporarily. When that temporarily part ends, then things get really nasty in the ME for all concerned.

Obama will not defend anything that brings peace nor stability.

He will not support human liberty as primary in all things and the basis for sound and just government by creating an equitable society.

He can’t think that way. He has walked away from supporting individual liberty… and soon, very soon, that will begin its Great Boomerang which no one, absolutely no one, will see coming. Be prepared to help it. It needs you when all seems darkest… just before it goes pitch black… as you will be there to keep the light. Then things really get interesting.

He never fails to display his contempt for the American people (with the exception of his union pals and creeps like Calypso Louie, Ayers, etc.). Our Constitution is an annoyance to him and something to be circumvented or ignored whenever possible.

His first foreign policy blunder or intentional act was to insult the UK and to purposely attempt to disgrace another traditional, stalwart ally, Israel.

It’s unlikely that the Saudis are surprised by Duh Won’s behavior although they may have expected to find him to be easily manipulated. Instead, the entire world has to deal with an abject fool who doesn’t give a toss about much unless it’s a subject or activity that amuses him – like basketball, golf and vacations with the girls.

Wake up America. We need to make sure we send the dangerous man back to south side Chicago where he can organize soup kitchens for old people. I would put up with even Hillary Clinton before I would give this guy four more years to bring this country down.

Granted, the Saudi royal family’s absolute rule generates problems of its own, but it also provides one of the few bulwarks to Iranian hegemony in the region. It also controls the flow of oil into markets from where the US imports it, since we refuse to pursue our own resources here at home. That makes them strategically important and the relationship crucial to actual national-security concerns for the US.

Ed, you are an idiot. By this logic, we should never have supported any democratic revolutions in the Middle East. Also by this logic, we should never have invaded Iraq, as Saddam was providing a significant counterweight to Iran, and with him toppled, Iran’s been strengthened. Yet, I’m sure you supported Iraq’s invasion wholeheartedly, and defended a war based on a lie because a Republican President started it. You take any opportunity to deride the President, including endorsing a strained alliance with a tyrannical dictatorship that opposes freedom of expression, oppresses its women, and kills innocent civilians. You’re pathetic.

BTW, “pursuing our own (oil) resources” at home translates to multinational oil companies drilling for oil and selling it on the world market to the highest bidder, just like any other oil that’s retrieved anywhere else in the world! This belief that if we just “tapped our own resources” we would make ourselves less dependent on foreign oil is BULLSHIT! OPEC will ALWAYS hold influence over the price of oil. Tapping resources here would have little to no effect on the overall price. Again, you’re an idiot.

It’ll never happen, because 99.9% of all “historians” in the US are Democrats, and 99.9% of all “historians” in the rest of the world are liberals.

They’ve never written honest accounts of how terrible FDR really was, have covered up for JFK, and have admitted embellishing LBJ’s “legacy” for decades at his Presidential Library. They have pretty much all given Clinton a pass as well.

Del Dolemonte on March 25, 2011 at 10:40 AM

True. True. And with these new “history books”, the introductory wisdom of Andrea Mitchell —the bonus—
prefacing this, said, textbook. With an emphasis
on the very first, most astounding intellect, plus a charisma no one thought possible, our one and only first black president. He has been the most admired, sea-scape photo beauty, ever. Plus, did you know, he was the supreme editor of the Harvard Law Review……it was too much, I am now going to wet my pants.

This belief that if we just “tapped our own resources” we would make ourselves less dependent on foreign oil is BULLSHIT! OPEC will ALWAYS hold influence over the price of oil. Tapping resources here would have little to no effect on the overall price. Again, you’re an idiot.

America is sitting on top of a super massive 200 billion barrel Oil Field that could potentially make America Energy Independent and until now has largely gone unnoticed. Thanks to new technology the Bakken Formation in North Dakota could boost America’s Oil reserves by an incredible 10 times, giving western economies the trump card against OPEC’s short squeeze on oil supply and making Iranian and Venezuelan threats of disrupted supply irrelevant

The US has long relied on two major alliances in the Middle East to maintain its strength, push for democracy, and supply itself with energy — Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Ed, you can’t be serious with that statement. When has either state pushed for democracy in the region? We maintain their military strength… not the other way around. As far as energy supplies, you do have a point with Saudi Arabia but if your logic is correct then Chavez is a bigger ally than the Saudis… You yourself supported the military action which removed the main bulwark against Iran.

We’re all very aware that one has no basis for ones opinions, when they have to start out, and end their opinion with name calling. It’s merely a way to try and tear down the target of ones vitriol, from beginning to end. I’ve read what you posted. You’ve cited no proof, links or otherwise to prove what you’re saying is true. Yet you think everyone should hone in on YOUR words, because they came from YOU, and according to you, Ed and everyone else is an idiot.

You’ve only proven yourself to be a mindless drone of the liberal ilk.

When is it not paranoid to conclude that Mr. Obama is purposefully tearing down America?

Mason on March 25, 2011 at 11:09 AM

Many of us agree. Some call for impeachment. Some call for the birth certificate fiasco, or even S.S. numbers, which apparently, he has numerous numbers, here, and about. Either one of these scenarios works out great. The biggest riot this country has ever seen. Wha-la. Does anyone remember what was supposed to happen if OJ was convicted? Everyone was prepared. Burn down houses, businesses, cars. Watts riots to the x-factor. He is now tempting people by his total disregard, partying, vacationing, playing golf, basketball odds, no face-to-face on the dilemma in the middle-east…..It is like, doing everything in his power to deliberately ignore and snub the utmost priorities. Catch me if you can. The middle east is in flames, he is above all of this. But it is not so. They’ve actually thought this all out, brilliantly. Cry,if you dare care.

BTW, “pursuing our own (oil) resources” at home translates to multinational oil companies drilling for oil and selling it on the world market to the highest bidder, just like any other oil that’s retrieved anywhere else in the world! This belief that if we just “tapped our own resources” we would make ourselves less dependent on foreign oil is BULLSHIT! OPEC will ALWAYS hold influence over the price of oil. Tapping resources here would have little to no effect on the overall price. Again, you’re an idiot.

underceij on March 25, 2011 at 11:04 AM

Astonishing: Drilling here and now will not incrementally lessen our dependence on foreign oil. Thank you for clearing that up for us.

The other day I picked up my child from school. He said something that really struck me. “Mom, it seems really strange that people are calling everyone racist. Somebody said something about some girl’s hair and she freaked out and started screaming “Racist!” I didn’t know what that word was until after Obama took the presidency”.

I have wondered if anyone else had made that connection?
That is all these wars are about Tribal dominance, I think O is Sunni and they believe the Shea are also infidels, Egypt I think is predominately Sunni, while Iran is Shea, if you just notice what countries O is favorable too I think you have your answer.

I honestly think Obama sees high energy prices as a feature, not a bug. And the sooner, the better; as that gives more time for the anger to fade before the next election, as the high prices become the new normal. Also, in theory, should make more people dependant on the Feds for hand-outs. Sadly, a reasonable assumption on his part, at least based on the way voters forget things so quickly, election-wise.

Tapping resources here would have little to no effect on the overall price.

Wrong. Oil is “fungible”, meaning once it gets to market, no matter if it comes from Saudi, Iran, Canada or anywhere else, it goes for the market price. What influences market price? Supply and demand.

What is the crucial role of Saudi? They have adjusted their rate of production to mitigate oil price spikes and priced oil in dollars, both of which have been to our advantage. This is why we put up with their funding jihadists and wahabist islamic doctrine around the globe. We need them, and they know it. Of course, we could drill here to mitigate the oil price, but no, Gaia wouldn’t like that.

Our part-time president insulted King Abdulla in his inept mistreatment of Mubarak, causing this breach. Pissing off a king has bad consequences, which we will be experiencing very soon.

Hey, who’s up for massive price spikes and a nuclear arms race in the middle east?

This belief that if we just “tapped our own resources” we would make ourselves less dependent on foreign oil is BULLSHIT! OPEC will ALWAYS hold influence over the price of oil. Tapping resources here would have little to no effect on the overall price. Again, you’re an idiot.

underceij on March 25, 2011 at 11:04 AM

Ed, don’t let that ban hammer out of your sight. I might just pick it up myself and whack this guy.

To his non-point, oil is a fungible resource as a commodity, but it is also a strategic resource. If things in the world are relatively calm and the flow of oil unimpeded, then the marketplace will work just fine. When the fighting starts, oil is more important than bullets.

Yes, I’ve noticed this as well. In addition to being sympathetic to the Muslim world in general he seems to favor Sunni populations. As you noted in your earlier post this should not be surprising for those who have done their research. I’ve often wondered about Donald Warden’s (Khalid al Mansour) involvement with BO’s inexplicable academic success, educational funding etc. Warden is a “financial” adviser to the house of Saud as well as a raving, anti-semitic lunatic.

Little Bammie’s calculus here is simple; he hates America and all that we are, so he will try to alienate and weaken our traditional allies and empower our traditional enemies. Bottom-up, top-down, inside-out, foreign-domestic, domestic-foreign.

Yes, I’ve noticed this as well. In addition to being sympathetic to the Muslim world in general he seems to favor Sunni populations. As you noted in your earlier post this should not be surprising for those who have done their research. I’ve often wondered about Donald Warden’s (Khalid al Mansour) involvement with BO’s inexplicable academic success, educational funding etc. Warden is a “financial” adviser to the house of Saud as well as a raving, anti-semitic lunatic.

Cody1991 on March 25, 2011 at 12:01 PM

Well, not so much. The sunnis have been screaming for us to move against Iran for quite a while. O-barry, of course couldn’t be bothered to even give verbal support to the Iranian rebels, much less do anything of note to address Iranian aggression.

I agree, Key West, Obama is “the Destroyer” (quotation marks are deliberate). Every time I see this picture, it makes my skin crawl.

Perhaps we’re already seeing Divine Intervention but not recognizing it. Divine Intervention often doesn’t appear as something good and wonderful, but rather bad and terrible that later leads us to the good and wonderful. (Old Testament is full of examples.)

With all that’s going on in my personal life and in my beloved country, faith in God is what gets me through each day, sometimes minute by minute.

The only difference between the two parties is in which part of the river they raft. The Dems are in the class 5 rapids heading for the mother of all waterfalls while the Pubs are meandering along outside the rapids to the same mother of all waterfalls. A pox on both their houses.

Something else to watch, as Syria deals with it’s protests, there has been an escalation against Israel. Losing Assad would be a strategic catastrophy for Iran, so expect that as Syria feels endangered, aggression against Israel will increase. Iran will play every card to preserve Syria.

But didn’t Obama tell us that when a dictator cozies up with terrorists, and when the people protest against him, and he fires on his own people, he loses legitimacy?

So, we have to push Assad out of Syria, right?

And we have to do the same for Iran…get rid of the Amadinnerjacket guy, right?

So…we’ve a plan for that, of course….right?

He is the smartest President we’ve ever had, if I recall all the glowing press and media reports back in 2008 and 2009…right?

coldwarrior on March 25, 2011 at 12:53 PM

That only applies when the country in question is an American ally, like Egypt used to be. Wait until the Muslim Brotherhood remakes it into the Islamic Republic of Egypt. Wait until Samantha Powers uses “R2P” on Israel.