Golfing Ace Jacqueline Gagne Strikes Again

Jacqueline Gagne, the amateur golfer who had 10 holes in one so far this year when I crunched the odds against her feat last month, has done it again. And again, and again, and again. Ms. Gagne says she’s up to 14 aces, all witnessed.

Jacqueline Gagne at the 18th hole of the Pete Dye Challenge Course of the Mission Hills Country Club in Rancho Mirage, Calif. (Photo by Peter A. Hogg)

Her local paper, the Desert Sun of Palm Springs, Calif., which has been chronicling her achievement, wrote about No. 13 recently, and asked readers to write in to a forum titled, “Bona fide or bogus?” Meanwhile, Ms. Gagne has created her own Web site, with the list of her aces (and music and birds chirping in the background).

Using the same method I explained last time around, I crunched the probability of her updated results — 14 aces over 90 rounds, or 360 par-3 holes. And the result has gone from extraordinarily unlikely to, well, even more unlikely. Last time around the lowest probability calculated was on the order of 670 quintillion (or 67 followed by 16 zeroes) to 1 against Ms. Gagne’s feat. With another four aces, you can add roughly another 12 zeroes to that.

David Boyum, co-author of the book “What the Numbers Say” and one of the people I consulted with for the probability calculations, is skeptical. “The odds as calculated are so long that we know either Gagne is lying or she plays golf on par 3 holes that are unusually easy to ace,” Mr. Boyum told me.

Ms. Gagne insists that neither is the case. Some commenters have speculated that her aces came on concave greens, funneling the ball into the hole. But she says none have (“that would be too easy”), and the overall rate of aces on the par-3s on her home course isn’t extraordinary, according to course officials.

She also hit a hole in one while her local ABC affiliate was filming (see video), bolstering her credibility. “Getting the hole in one on camera did relieve some of the stress for awhile, and then came the media,” Ms. Gagne told me. “Everyone wants to get the next one on tape. So the media comes out I hit 30 to 40 balls and hopefully one goes in the cup. My shots have been very close — some roll over the cup, some right at the flag stick. But the second one has not fallen.”

If you’re skeptical, or just curious, you can watch her on camera again soon. She’s scheduled to play a round this week with Harry Smith of “The Early Show” at Metropolis Country Club in White Plains, N.Y., to be aired on CBS.

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