Thursday, November 19, 2015

Staunton, November 19 – Events of
recent days may have obscured what is the most important development of all:
Vladimir Putin appears to be preparing for a Russian military strike against
Saudi Arabia and Qatar, a move that would dramatically worsen the situation in
the Middle East and send oil prices soaring, according to Andrey Illarionov.

He argues that Russia’s bombing of
targets in Syria, Putink’s success at the G20, “the de facto paralysis of NATO,”
Russia’s acquisition of France as an ally, US intelligence sharing with Russia,
and proposals for restructuring of Ukraine’s debt distract the world’s
attention from Moscow’s preparations for such attacks (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=564C7EF0D54B2).

The Moscow analyst says that “the
vigilance of the West has been weakened” by this series of events, thus opening
the way for Moscow to carry out a strategic operation that it has been hoping
to launch against “military, infrastructure and energy sites in Saudi Arabia
and Qatar.”

As he typically does, Illarionov
presents a careful listing of the evidence he has for his conclusion which if
true would highlight some of the dangers involved of including Moscow in any
alliance to fight international terrorism because such attacks would almost
certainly provoke more of it.

Illarionov calls attention to 15
indicators or steps he suggests show that Putin is planning for such attacks:

1.Moscow
knew that terrorist shot down the plane over Sinai “at a minimum on the third
day after” it occurred.

2.But
the Russian authorities did not announce that they knew until “after the
conclusion of the G20 summit in Antalya in order to “avoid a practically
inevitable discussion in that event of the nature of the possible Russian
response to the terrorist action.”

3.However,
“in order not to lose time,” Moscow announced that it was a terrorist act as
soon as the Antalya summit was over.

4.The
FSB immediately then put out details that it had not been prepared to release
earlier.

5.Putin
said that Russia would do whatever it took “to find and punish the criminals”
regardless of when they acted or where they are now.

6.The
Kremlin leader said that he had tasked all of Russia’s force structures to come
up with a plan that would deal with all those involved.

7.Putin
declared that Russia “will act in correspondence with Article 51 of the UN
Charter which recognizes the right of states to self-defense,” thus cloaking himself
in international law for a possible act on particular states.

8.Already
at Antalya, Putin had said that it was necessary to strike at those who “finance
terrorist activities,” a group of countries which include Saudi Arabia and
Qatar.

9.The
FSB announced in an unprecedented move that it was offering a 50 million US
dollar reward to anyone who could provide evidence about the terrorist acts and
these links, an amount certainly guaranteed to lead some to provide what they
see as evidence of Saudi or Qatar complicity.

10.Such
attacks would be unthinkable, of course, if the US acted in defense of those
countries; but that is unlikely. On the one hand, the US is less dependent on
oil from there than it was; and on the other, President Barack Obama, compared
to his predecessors, is less willing to act in that way.

11.“The
Kremlin’s conviction that the current US Administration is hardly likely to
support Saudi Arabia has been essentially strengthened by the refusal of the US
and the UK to support not only Saudi Arabia or Ukraine but even France, a
member of NATO, in its assessment of the Paris terrorist actions as an act of
war and consequently to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter.”

12.This
refusal contrasts sharply with what happened after September 11, 2001, and
prompted French President Francois Hollande to go to Moscow and seek an
alliance with Putin.

13.“The
vigilance of the West has been weakened as well by the changes at first glance
of the Kremlin’s course,” including the bombing of ISIS targets in Syria and a
more positive stance on restructuring Ukraine’s foreign debt, changes that have
been amplified by “a massive propaganda campaign of the Kremlin and the Putinintern.”

14.Consequently,
“in the near future, Saudi Arabia (and possibly Qatar) could be declared
sponsors of international terrorism and thus one way or another involved in the
deaths of hundreds of Russian citizens. Invoking Article 51 of the UN Charger,
the Kremlin could carry out an operation of revenge.”

15.The consequences of such attacks on oil prices are
obvious, and the refusal of the US and the UK to invoke Article 5 of the NATO
Charter for the defense of France marks the de facto paralysis of this organization
and in essence an open invitation to the carrying out of new aggression against
its other members.”