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Forecasts call for wetter, warmer winter

Raindrops fall on a parking lot covered with rain. Heavy rains caused the cancellation of the second day of the French and Indian War Encampment on Sunday, April 19, 2015, at Fort Toulouse-Fort Jackson in Wetumpka. (Photo: Shannon Heupel/Advertiser)Buy Photo

Conditions off the coast of South America could lead to meteorological mayhem in Alabama.

El Niño conditions, the warming of equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America, are going on now and are expected to strengthen through the winter, according to forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The South generally sees milder and wetter winters during El Niño events.

There’s a 90 percent chance El Niño will strengthen through the winter, and an 80 percent chance it will strengthen through the upcoming spring, said Jason Davis, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s office in Birmingham.

Forecasts predict El Niño is expected to be the strongest since the winter of 1997-1998. The winter of ‘97-98 was the second warmest in the country overall and the seventh wettest since 1895, NWS data shows.

So what does that mean locally? Don’t let your guard down, said Ernie Baggett, director of the Autauga County Emergency Management Agency.

“We are most concerned about warmer air being in place through the winter,” he said. “There will be periods when colder air will move through the region and clash with that warmer air. That could lead to severe thunderstorms and tornado outbreaks.

“So we could easily see December tornadoes, January tornadoes. All this during the time of year when people aren’t geared to be expecting severe weather.”

History backs up his concerns.

Weather data shows that in January of 1998, Mobile received 16.92 inches of rain, a monthly total record. On Feb. 22-23, 1998 a tornado outbreak in Central Florida spawned several powerful twisters, including an EF4. The storms caused $60 million in damages, destroyed 800 homes and killed 42 people, NWS data shows.

“People need to be aware that if El Niño strengthens as expected, we could have a very unsettled winter as far as the weather goes,” Baggett said. “We could have prolonged periods of heavy rains. Along with storms, we could see increased chances of wide spread river flooding, because of the heavy rains.”