Tropical Storm Andrea hits Florida

Tropical Storm Andrea made landfall near 5:40 pm EDT in the Big Bend region of Florida as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Andrea had a busy day Thursday in Florida, dumping heavy rains, spawning ten tornadoes, and bringing a storm surge of up to 4.5' to the coast. While the Hurricane Hunters did measure sustained winds of 65 mph over the ocean shortly before landfall, very few land stations recorded sustained winds in excess of tropical storm force, 39 mph. Here are some of the higher winds measured at coastal stations:

A personal weather station at Bald Point State Park near Apalachicola had sustained winds of 46 mph at 10 am EDT. Cedar Key had sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 50 mph, at 3:43 pm EDT. Punta Gorda had sustained winds of 37, gusting to 58, at 1:04 pm EDT.St. Petersburg topped out at 34 mph, gusting to 48 mph, at 10:23 am EDT.

Two sets of tornadic rain bands moved through West Florida on Thursday, one between 2 am and 5 am, and the other between 10 am and 3 pm, spawning a total of five suspected tornadoes. The first band produced two EF-0 tornadoes: one with 75 mph winds that hit Myakka City, damaging 3 homes and 10 other buildings, and one with 80 mph winds that cut throughout the heart of Sun City, causing minor damage. NWS damage surveys will be occurring Friday in Fort Myers, Venice, Clearwater, and Gulfport to check out the damage swaths of the other three suspected tornadoes.

The Florida East Coast was hit by five suspected tornadoes. Only one caused an injury, a tornado that hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT. Two other tornadoes were reported in Broward and Palm Beach Counties, and two more were reported in coastal areas near the Georgia border.

Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Andrea at 1pm EDT Thursday, June 6, 2013. At the time, Andrea had top winds of 60 mph and was 5.7 hours away from landfall in Florida's Big Bend. Image credit: NASA.

The Atlantic hurricane season is getting longerAndrea's formation in June continues a pattern of an unusually large number of early-season Atlantic named storms we've seen in recent years. Climatologically, June is the second quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, behind November. During the period 1870 - 2012, we averaged one named storm every two years in June, and 0.7 named storms per year during May and June. In the nineteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been fifteen June named storms (if we include 2013's Tropical Storm Andrea.) June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled (there were seventeen May storms in the 75-year period 1870 - 1994, compared to 6 in the 19-year period 1995 - 2013.) Some of this difference can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season (May - June) and late season (November - December) Atlantic tropical storms. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin looked at the reasons for this in a 2008 paper titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high." He found that hurricane season for both the period 1950-2007 and 1980-2007 got longer by 5 to 10 days per decade (see my blog post on the paper.)

Invest 92L in the Central Atlantic headed towards the Lesser AntillesSatellite images show that a large and unusually well-organized tropical wave for so early in the season has developed in the Central Atlantic, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. The wave has a modest degree of spin and heavy thunderstorms. NHC designated this system 92L Thursday afternoon. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots is ripping up the thunderstorms in 92L as they form, though, and wind shear is predicted to increase to 30 - 40 knots Thursday night through Monday, making development unlikely. The wave will likely bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on Sunday night.

Quoting Lizziebeth10:Another Charleston report. I braved the storm and drove to work this morning in a driving drizzle. Never seen rain fall quite like that - definitely a drizzle, but instead of gently falling straight down, it had a slanted trajectory. Storm damage was limited to a few leaves down on the back patio.

LOL, this really made me laugh ;) It was much the same over here in the Summerville area, we barely got any wind and not much more rain than your typical rainstorm. Not even a single overnight warning on the weather radio!

I do, however, feel for those who got absolutely drenched in Florida and had to deal with those tornadoes yesterday. Thankfully, that was not the case for us!

Quoting sar2401:Yeah, I know what you mean. SE Alabama is about as far as you can get from a desert...well, except for the armadillos. I have no idea how they managed to make it all the way here, but I shot 11 of them my first year here. They were digging holes big enough to use for a fish pond.

Armadillos were common along the Gulf Coast when I was a kid in the early 80s.

That was around the same time a few were spotted up off the coastal gulf areas, at least by the late 80s.

Now they are invading parts well north into the middle south, except the tallest peaks.

There's much to read about their exceptional spread, faster than most mammals were thought to spread.

A warming climate is most-likely the main cause. The spread of blackberries on abandoned farms (1.5 million acres worth around NEA/NWG/Chatt.TN) may also be a driver of their movement, according to a few articles I read. But when you go from a mean of 37 in the winter to 45 in the winter over two decades, you will have some new visitors.

6z GFS is showing a possible tropical cyclone in mid-June developing over the northwestern Caribbean, then crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and moving across the Gulf of Mexico, and finally making landfall between Mexico and southernmost Texas.

Another Charleston report. I braved the storm and drove to work this morning in a driving drizzle. Never seen rain fall quite like that - definitely a drizzle, but instead of gently falling straight down, it had a slanted trajectory. Storm damage was limited to a few leaves down on the back patio. I even got up (slightly) early this morning in hopes of seeing an "eye" of sorts, but alas, it was all cloudy and I think the eye was further inland or further along, if there was indeed even one to be seen.

Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A very nice 68 degrees here with a cool breeze.

TS Andrea goes through Florida and most still have power. A couple of small storms go through and then some simple rain and we lose electric after dinner. It didn't come back on until after 1:30 this morning. sigh.

CSU identified the 1961, 1996, 2005, 2007 and 2011 hurricane seasons as possible analog years for 2013. So let us analyse these years to determine what sort of trends that obtained in these seasons and may also occur this year.

1. They were all extremely active years with an average of 17-9-5 (ACE 164).

2. They all featured active Cape Verde seasons with an average of 6.6 named storms forming south of 20 north and east of the Caribbean.

3. They all got off to very rapid starts with and average of 3.6 named storms before August 1st.

4. They featured 16.0 named storm days, 6.25 hurricane days and 2.0 major hurricane days south of 23.5 north and east of 75 west before August 1st which is a strong indicator of an active season.

5. An average of 1.0 major hurricanes per year made landfall in the US in those years.

6. An average of 1.8 major hurricanes per year tracked through the Caribbean.

7. An average of 1.6 category 5 hurricanes formed in those years.

8. An average of 3.2 named storms affected the eastern Caribbean.

All named storms in the analog years of 1961, 1996, 2005, 2007 and 2011

All named storms in the analog years of 1961, 1996, 2005, 2007 and 2011 before August 1st.

Based on this analysis, I believe that the following factors are possible in 2013:

1. A rapid start to the season with 3 - 5 named storms pre-August 1st.

2. Pre-August 1st named storm days south of 23.5 north and east of 75 west.

3. A high chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall in the US.

4. Multiple major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

5. Between 7 - 10 named storms originating from the deep tropics east of the Caribbean.

6. A high chance of at least 1 category 5 hurricane given the warm SST's.

7. A high probability of between 2 - 4 tropical cyclones hitting the eastern Caribbean.

8. The high impact areas being the eastern and northern Caribbean and the US east coast with the highest impact probability centered around Florida.

9. My prediction for the season issued in early April stands at 15 - 19 named storms, 6 - 10 hurricanes and 3 - 5 major hurricanes.

In NE Florida, we got some good rains and twigs with green leaves are down. One power flicker...but Not the 38 mph winds forecast nor the impressive flooding. I fear the early out that some of us took in the face of those predictions and the scary radar images, may be the first cry wolf of this season.

Quoting BahaHurican: I'm just glad we didn't get more heavy downpours dumping on us the last couple days... we prolly picked up 20-25 inches of rain in the last ten days, and considerably more on the eastern end of New Providence. I haven't been checking totals for the other NW Bahamas islands, but I'd expect their totals have been similar.

Which is one reason why I am not looking at the potential for 92L to head our way anytime soon...

Yeah.. Good think good ole shear will kill it before it comes anywhere near here.

Well I wouldn't write 92L off...It might pull a "K" on us..wait to find favorable conditions near he U.S..but struggled in the Atlantic due to the same thing 92L is facing..The CMC does show a low off Florida in 10 days..

Right now in Central North Carolina, it's pouring. My area is under flash flood warning and is one county to west of tornado watch. However, the winds are not showing up here so it just feel like what heavy rainstorms do here and not a tropical storm. Andrea's center should be right over us by now.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICALSTORM ANDREA...LOCATED INLAND OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...ISLOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDSARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOWCHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEASFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

&&HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BEFOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

Quoting FIUStormChaser:Considering that my new house is in a flood zone In an area decimated by Hurricane Andrew I'm not liking that Bermuda High.You guys can't seem to dry out. Is the an abundance of water on the island?

I'm just glad we didn't get more heavy downpours dumping on us the last couple days... we prolly picked up 20-25 inches of rain in the last ten days, and considerably more on the eastern end of New Providence. I haven't been checking totals for the other NW Bahamas islands, but I'd expect their totals have been similar.

Which is one reason why I am not looking at the potential for 92L to head our way anytime soon...

Quoting BahaHurican: I [+1] this, not because I like it, but because I think you are right. My only hope is that this early setting up of the high is going to change in July and give us a setup with more troughing between Bermuda and the east coast.

Not actually expecting it, though...

Considering that my new house is in a flood zone In an area decimated by Hurricane Andrew I'm not liking that Bermuda High.You guys can't seem to dry out. Is the an abundance of water on the island?

I feel like this will be a bad year for you, the Carribean, the Gulf, and me here in Florida :/. That ridging will not be nice to us.

I [+1] this, not because I like it, but because I think you are right. My only hope is that this early setting up of the high is going to change in July and give us a setup with more troughing between Bermuda and the east coast.

Looks like Andrea is making the transition to a post-tropical storm. There may be some slight strengthening later on due to baroclinical processes, but that won't happen atm. Heavy rain and tornadoes remain the main threats with the wind threat dying down for now. Anyone on the east coast needs to keep on paying attention to Andrea.

I've been super busy this whole week so I haven't been able to blog about Andrea or 92L, something I'll do tomorrow.