I did hesitate to post, and by the way the 11 ticks up are more likely for the overweight rating from Morgan Stanley (they’re saying the SP could be x 5 its current price by 2020).

I don’t mean to play ‘censor’, more encouraging folk to create a new thread for R / L etc. There are few subjects that have caused so much division in this country in many decades. By all means though create a thread for healthy discussion debate - but not on this one, otherwise it will literally take hours to find anything SP related:}

@ash6666"…The problem with that is that it gives everyone free rein to talk about anything and everything getting further and further away …"

i hear you, Ash. But everyone on this HUR’s must be presumed to be adult and mature and given ‘free rein’ within relevance, decency and respect. The hallmark of the ‘class’ site is to disciplline ourselves to keep it within those bounds and avoid the personal calumny, abuse and intemperance which typifies some BBs. As Albi1 said, it will not end well without that restraint on each our part.

Albi1, I am not insensible to where the majority thoughts lie - and you are too modest, your post deserves all the ‘Likes’ on its own merit. However, it is just that I would much prefer it if we can audit our writing behaviour to keep it temperate, polite and relevant, because I feel very uneasy when we have to tell others what they can and cannot write (about). To be worthy of this BB one must be able to make that unselfish judgement to keep it relevant and free of acrimony and personal abuse.
Kr,A. - LLV

I think Albi had the best idea, have a separate thread for discussions about non-HUR subjects.
We have a decent bunch of people here who may well enjoy talking about all sorts of subjects from Brexit to travel to sports to…

I go on one sport forum which has a “Lounge” where the sport itself is forbidden!

It was interesting to read the Morgan Stanley report which highlighted the four events that could have a significant positive effect on Hurricane’s share price.

Assuming these events are successful, which no doubt they will be, there is a fifth event that could have a greater effect on the share price than all the other four events put together.

I’m absolutely certain that potential predators are now looking very closely at how Hurricane will develop in the coming weeks and months. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if a hostile bid was made for Hurricane at any time. A lot of the hard work has been done or is already in progress. The EPS is up and running. The FPSO in on site. The drilling of the Warwick Deep is in progress.

The three main events to ensure the future progress of Hurricane came unexpectedly. Kerogen bought into Hurricane when the share price and poo were at rock bottom. A shed load of cash was raised to bring Lancaster into production. The Spirit involvement came out of the blue.

My favourite company to make a bid is B P. I can’t see B P sitting idly by as Hurricane go from strength to strength in their own backyard without doing anything.

Could flow for a few months then tail off…hopefully not.
Could get taken out at similar levels such as many others Itheca, Faroe etc …hopefully not.
There are still many “hopefully not” still in this company.

Each step de-risk’s the HUR business and proves up the resource, hopefully the price moves upward with the news {& oil) flow over coming months rewarding long term holders.

Lets not forget the Morgan Stanley also contains a 17p bear case valuation, in addition to the £3.47

“But I suspect that the bid will not be for the company but for the oil proved to flow i.e. at the moment just Lancaster. That will then provide the money for the other”

OK, but BP have already contracted to buy oil for a specified period and I understand that they are open to continuing to buy for as long as the price suits them - re. Lancaster. It seems GWA is the game changing point, 6 months from now?

One of the reasons I reckon B P is my favourite oil company to take over Hurricane is that David Jenkins, Senior Independent Non Executive Director on Hurricane’s B o D is a former Chief geologist at B P.

The following is a copy and paste from Hurricane’s web site of Mr Jenkins’ track record with B P. It makes impressive reading:-

Dr David Jenkins
ARC
NC
RC
Senior Independent Non-Executive Director

David has spent over 50 years working in the oil and gas industry. He was at BP for the first 37 years, where he held the positions of Chief Geologist in 1979, General Manager, Exploration in 1984 and then Chief Executive, Technology for 10 years from 1987. He retired at the end of 1998 with the position of Chief Technology Advisor for the BP Group.

Following his retirement from BP, David held a variety of advisory and board positions, including nine years on the board of BHP Billiton, and was a member of the advisory board of Riverstone Holdings.

Does seem to be the most likely move doesn’t it? I suspect there may be other interested parties but this could already be a done deal with BP informally waiting on the results of data for all we know. I would hope if they do move in we achieve a decent price - or would our shares automatically become BP shares? I’m not quite sure how it might work in that scenario.

I could also see Hurricane continuing as an exploration company but retaining a share in Rona Ridge in an alternative scenario … Many possibilities here.

Both buyer and seller need to be comfortable that they have a decent deal, so that means either waiting until the field is producing and the data is available to predict the likely life or a deal based on the amount actually produced and paid during production

The apparent technical barrier at 57p has been broken. I am expecting first oil on 30th May, it could be a couple of days later. We know that first commercial oil will be after the 72 hour test and then HURs contract with Bluewater officially starts. Production afaik will not stop after the 72 hour test, therefore I am expecting the 72 hour test to commence this weekend either on Saturday 25th or Sunday 26th. I hope the oil worker on the neighbouring platform will again post shots of flaring this weekend which will confirm the 72 hour test has started. Share price into the 60`s next week but there will be constant profit taking as the share price gradually moves north.
IMHO

Well, so much can change in one day! Useful article covering the many various causes behind the significant drop in oil prices today on the market which naturally impacted Hurricane’s SP. Overall though it’s worth skipping to the last sentence to note that PoO has risen considerably to date this year.

Even with the price of Brent Crude at less than $70.00 a barrel it’s reassuring to know that the EPS on Lancaster continues to be extremely profitable. ( see Q2 2019 Corporate Presentation Page 14.)

Such are the ups and downs of investing in an oil company. One thing that can be said about Hurricane is that it’s not a boring share to be invested in. But it’s much more interesting when the price of oil is on the up.