May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Republican U.S. Senator Scott Brown
of Massachusetts and presumed challenger Elizabeth Warren are
locked in a virtual tie in a race analysts say offers Democrats
one of their best chances of picking up a Senate seat in
November’s election.

A Suffolk University/WHDH-TV survey of likely general
election voters released last night shows Brown with 48 percent
support and Warren with 47 percent. The pollsters in a statement
termed the race a ”dead heat,” given the survey’s margin of
error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. A comparable
February poll showed Brown ahead by 9 points, 49 percent to 40
percent.

“In both the February and May polls, Brown has fallen
short of the coveted 50 percent mark for an incumbent, while
Elizabeth Warren has converted some undecided voters since
February,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk
University Political Research Center in Boston. “This leaves
both campaigns no choice but to spend tens of millions of
dollars in an all-out war to woo the 5 percent of voters who
will decide this election.”

Brown, winner of a special election in January 2010 for the
seat Democrat Edward Kennedy had held before his death in August
2009, is seeking a full six-year term.

Consumer Protection

Warren, a Harvard University law professor, served as an
adviser to President Barack Obama and helped set up the Consumer
Financial Protection Bureau created by 2010 Dodd-Frank financial
regulation law. Republican senators made clear they would block
Warren’s appointment to head the bureau, and Obama named someone
else to the post. In her campaign, Warren has stressed her
commitment to consumer protections.

Independent political analysts Charlie Cook and Stuart
Rothenberg, both based in Washington, rate Brown, 52, as one of
two most vulnerable Republican senators on the ballot this year,
with Dean Heller of Nevada the other. Democrats, who control the
100-member Senate with 53 votes, are defending 23 seats to 10
for the Republicans this year.

Brown has a 58 percent favorable rating in the Suffolk poll
-- up from 52 percent in February -- while his unfavorable
rating remained at 28 percent.

Warren is viewed favorably by 43 percent, up from 35
percent in February. Her unfavorable rating grew to 33 percent,
from 28 percent in February.

Heritage Question

Warren, 62, has faced recent questions about her background
after reports that she claimed Native American heritage in
directories of law professors. She said family members told her
that she had Native American blood.

One issue is whether she received an advantage in landing
her professorship at Harvard and other schools by claiming to be
a minority. The Associated Press reported that officials of the
schools that hired her said her ancestry either didn’t come up
or wasn’t considered.

In the poll, 49 percent said they believe Warren is telling
the truth about having Native American blood, while 28 percent
said she isn’t. Asked whether they viewed the flap as a
significant story, 69 percent said they didn’t while 27 percent
said they did.

“Brown will have to make the case for why he deserves to
be re-elected, rather than suggesting that Warren is not fit to
be the U.S. senator,” Paleologos said. “And a winning strategy
for Warren would be twofold. She should expand the middle-class
theme across the Massachusetts political landscape, and she
should court undecided voters, who in two polls have shown
reluctance to pull the trigger for Scott Brown.”

Primary Vote

Brown’s campaign entered April with almost $15 million in
the bank, while Warren’s had $11 million.

Employees in the securities and investment industry and
their families have been the biggest source of donations to
Brown, giving him $2 million, according to the Center for
Responsive Politics, a Washington-based research group that
analyzes campaign donations.

In the poll, those surveyed disagreed with claims that a
vote for Brown was a vote for Wall Street, 55 percent to 33
percent.

The survey also found Obama leading presumptive Republican
presidential nominee Mitt Romney, a former Massachusetts
governor, 59 percent to 34 percent. No Republican candidate for
the White House has carried Massachusetts since then-President
Ronald Reagan in his 1984 re-election win.