Boston's Finals chances aren't far behind Toronto's, or even Cleveland's surprisingly low 37.9 percent, for that matter. Also worth noting is the enormous drop off after the top three--despite being only 1.5 games back of the Celtics in the standings at the moment, Basketball-Reference doesn't project the Heat (or anybody else) as a serious contender to win the Eastern Conference.

The C's have a very difficult schedule from here on out, but they've also been playing spectacular ball of late. They haven't lost at home since January 6, going from sub-.500 (9-10) at the TD Garden to 23-10 in the last two months.

On the morning of January 22, Boston was just 22-21. Since that day its 17-5, the third-best record in the NBA behind only the Warriors (18-2) and Spurs (17-4). In that time, the Raptors are 15-5 and the Cavs are 15-7.

As far as the title goes, Basketball-Reference actually gives San Antonio (39.3 percent) the best shot, slightly better than Golden State (36.2 percent). And how about that 2.7-percent possibility of the Celtics winning the whole thing? FiveThirtyEight.com has a similar calculation, setting the number at an even three percent (although it doesn't use decimals).