Nice read and I agree, except maybe that Lee is to be ranked 4th, I think 2nd or 3rd, flip Curry with him and Klay 4th. Klay really could breakput, but he has everything to prove and not much pressure either, as his rise is just a plus that really not many expected when he was drafted.

Fair enough; I admit, I typically value big men higher than guards out of principle most of the time. Lee is rated higher than Thompson, despite being less skilled, because he's a better option at power forward than Thompson is at shooting guard. That's not to say that I'm not a huge Thompson fan or a believer in Klay (I am, on both accounts); I just think his skills are easier to replace than those of Lee. We can find another scorer in the draft or on the free agent market, but another screen-setting 4 with a jumper like Lee (who pulls down 10 rebounds a game, to boot) is more difficult to come by. In fact, after Webber, we didn't get one for going on 15 years.

Anyway, this is awesome stuff. I can tell you put a lot of work into it, nicely done.

About the boards, I think Lee is a good rebounder but not a great one. The fact is, he inflated his career stats a bit during his stint with the Knicks (almost 12 a game in back to back seasons), and our previous inability to find another legit big to pair him with so far in O-Town has kept his numbers artificially high. Keep in mind a few things: the Warriors have had the 5th and 10th fastest pace in the league since Lee joined, which means there are a lot more rebounds available per game. Also, without a second rebounder on the roster, he gets more uncontested defensive rebounds than most bigs in the league (Dwight probably leads in that category every year...).

I think we should look more closely at Total Rebounding Rate, a measure of the percentage of rebounds a player collects whenever on the floor. Its not perfect (see point number two about intra-team competition), but its telling. Among players who got 25+ minutes a game (basically, starter's minutes), Lee was around 30th league wide (at 14.5%, and 15.3% the year before but his ranking was essentially the same). And some of the guys in his range have super-tough team competition for rebounds (for example, Marc Gasol has to share with Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay every game).

For comparison, Bogut was at 18.2% and 17.9% his last two full seasons, which put him about 10th both years. When the season ends, I expect them to each average around 8-9 rebounds a game, and that should get out of the team rebounding cellar.

Anyway, this is awesome stuff. I can tell you put a lot of work into it, nicely done.

About the boards, I think Lee is a good rebounder but not a great one. The fact is, he inflated his career stats a bit during his stint with the Knicks (almost 12 a game in back to back seasons), and our previous inability to find another legit big to pair him with so far in O-Town has kept his numbers artificially high. Keep in mind a few things: the Warriors have had the 5th and 10th fastest pace in the league since Lee joined, which means there are a lot more rebounds available per game. Also, without a second rebounder on the roster, he gets more uncontested defensive rebounds than most bigs in the league (Dwight probably leads in that category every year...).

I think we should look more closely at Total Rebounding Rate, a measure of the percentage of rebounds a player collects whenever on the floor. Its not perfect (see point number two about intra-team competition), but its telling. Among players who got 25+ minutes a game (basically, starter's minutes), Lee was around 30th league wide (at 14.5%, and 15.3% the year before but his ranking was essentially the same). And some of the guys in his range have super-tough team competition for rebounds (for example, Marc Gasol has to share with Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay every game).

For comparison, Bogut was at 18.2% and 17.9% his last two full seasons, which put him about 10th both years. When the season ends, I expect them to each average around 8-9 rebounds a game, and that should get out of the team rebounding cellar.

Well, truth be told, there's a reason I went with total-rebounds instead of rebound-differential Dubs have remained in the basement of that category since Lee's arrival, but I felt that that spoke to the lack of any rebounding help (as you alluded to).

Excellent points, but I'll have to fortify my position respectfully:

First off, to clarify: Lee only had one season under Mike D'Antoni. Off the bat, when one hears "Warriors and Knicks", they may be prone to believing that Lee had nothing but high-paced offenses to feast from, but Lee has played the majority of his career under Larry Brown, Isiah Thomas, and Mark Jackson's slower schemes, rather than the 2 seasons of run-and-gun he had with D'Antoni and Keith Smart. Regardless, Lee turned in 11.7 RPG averages in back-to-back seasons for Zeke and Mike D, so it seems to me that pace (while it may have a little effect on his numbers) doesn't make or break Lee's ability to be a top-tier rebounder.

Also, at 7 seasons in the league, on two different squads, Lee has proven his numbers are anything but hollow or fickle. Troy Murphy had the double-double thing going on here, but once he left Oakland, his rebounding dropped rapidly. Lee has played in two different cities, for 5 different coaches, that run 5 different systems, and the results have been absolutely consistent. His teammates have included Andris Biedrins and Zack Randolph, both of whom have had seasons of over 9.5 RPG. While it's true that Lee's teams have typically been thin on rebounding help, to say that he's never had any backup is a little bit of a misnomer. The way I see it, anybody who puts up 10 or more rebounds per game is among the league's fiercest on the glass; which is why I used that terminology... but maybe I just dole out that term a little more liberally than you other good folks.

On the subject of advanced statistics, the reason Lee fails in Total Rebounding Rate is because of the problem I addressed in his weakness section: he doesn't keep opposing hounds off the glass. Rebounding Rate not only tracks your ability, but it measures your opponents' rebounding as well. Because Lee gets into mano-y-mano rebounding battles with the opposing player's finest glass freak, his Rebounding Rate looks worse than someone who plays center... because 5's typically don't rebound as well as 4's. David Lee may have been 31st among PF's in the league last year, but Shawn Marion (a widely accepted above-average rebounder) was 46th, while Jordan Hill ranked 4th and Lou Amundson ranked 16th. I think we can all agree that Taj Gibson, Drew Gooden, and Jason Maxiell are all decent rebounders (I'd take any of them above Lou Amundson) and they all ranked below Lee. To me, keeping your opposite number off the glass has more to do with team rebounding than personal ability.

And lastly, regarding Bogut vs Lee on the glass, I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest (before Bogut even suits up) that Lee will be his superior in RPG by the season's end. Bogut isn't a slouch on the glass, but his tendency to contest shots limits his ability to collect possessions. Lee, on the other hand, NEVER contests and, thus, is always in position to grab boards.

PS, Raider, you are absolutely one of the most intelligent posters I think I've ever crossed paths with here. I hope you continue to contribute throughout the season; we need guys with your knowledge to have a presence on this place.

Anyway, this is awesome stuff. I can tell you put a lot of work into it, nicely done.

About the boards, I think Lee is a good rebounder but not a great one. The fact is, he inflated his career stats a bit during his stint with the Knicks (almost 12 a game in back to back seasons), and our previous inability to find another legit big to pair him with so far in O-Town has kept his numbers artificially high. Keep in mind a few things: the Warriors have had the 5th and 10th fastest pace in the league since Lee joined, which means there are a lot more rebounds available per game. Also, without a second rebounder on the roster, he gets more uncontested defensive rebounds than most bigs in the league (Dwight probably leads in that category every year...).

I think we should look more closely at Total Rebounding Rate, a measure of the percentage of rebounds a player collects whenever on the floor. Its not perfect (see point number two about intra-team competition), but its telling. Among players who got 25+ minutes a game (basically, starter's minutes), Lee was around 30th league wide (at 14.5%, and 15.3% the year before but his ranking was essentially the same). And some of the guys in his range have super-tough team competition for rebounds (for example, Marc Gasol has to share with Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay every game).

For comparison, Bogut was at 18.2% and 17.9% his last two full seasons, which put him about 10th both years. When the season ends, I expect them to each average around 8-9 rebounds a game, and that should get out of the team rebounding cellar.

That's great information and I agree with 32, you are a nice addition to this forum

I also don't think Lee is a great rebounder, but he is very good and the thing is that he is a good player in the team concept. He fits in and scores smartly, being a plus to the team in being a winning one now, at least I think. He also has to prove that he can be a major piece on a winning team, as his teams have always been rather bad.

He is a top ten PF and to me, if he doesn't help the team win or at least it looks that way, he is very tradeable and should get very good value in return.

We may disagree a bit on how good Lee is on the boards, but I think we all agree that he's a positive asset for the team. He and Brandon Rush were my two favorite players last year because they seemed to bring their A game each and every night. I could see both of them getting major minutes for a legit title contender.

Well, seeing as we're getting some good discussion about Lee, how about we discuss him in tandem with his backup: Mr. Carl Landry. My scouting report for Landry:

32 wrote:PF - 5 - Carl Landry

Strengths (+) - Warriors fans will recognize Carl Landry as the player Ike Diogu should have turned into: a stocky, old school power forward with a 1970's skill-set and a dragon-esque wingspan. Landry is an extremely educated player from inside 6 feet, who knows how to score in a myriad of ways; he can sink it with contact, has a Monta Ellis spin from the triple threat, can use glass or net it straight, hides the ball well inside, and bullies the opposition every moment he's on the floor. He has a solid midrange that will reach out to 15 feet. Effort is never an issue, nor is character; Landry is an excellent locker room guy and a solid influence on young players. A supremely talented low-post option, Landry doesn't pass out of the low block because he doesn't have to. He can score in multiple coverage and is easily among the league's best bench power forwards. An asset on the offensive glass, Landry gives his team extra possessions and is furiously quick off of two feet for unblockable put-backs. A career 6th man, Landry is starter-quality without the egocentric urge to rock the boat when it comes to his coach's rotations.

Weaknesses (-) - Landry has a reputation as a bit of a foul machine and is anemic on the defensive end. While he isn't quite the red carpet that David Lee is, the two of them may combine to be the least efficient defensive tandem at power forward in the league. As mentioned above, Landry does not look to pass (ever) and has averaged a shade under twice as many turnovers as assists on his career. A below-average rebounder whose RP35 average on his life amounts to 7.1 - which puts him on the same level as Chris Bosh as far as useless 4's on the glass. Landry typically averages as many defensive rebounds as offensive rebounds, which would be great if he hauled down 14 a night, but as it stands, the results translate into a general lack of enthusiasm on the defensive glass. The bottom line is that Landry's contributions are entirely located on one side of the floor.

Strengths (+) - Barnes is a tremendous shot-creater with the ball in his hands. He can score from a variety of spots on the floor and could possibly provide Golden State with their first true isolation option since the departure of Monta Ellis. He's already a plus forward out of the face-up position and possesses a Maggette-esque combination of strength and quickness (doesn't quite have the explosiveness though). A match-up problem for other teams, Barnes is wet from the perimeter, scores inside with contact, runs the floor, fills lanes, and seems to be equally adept at working from the corner, the elbow, and the top. Defensively, Barnes looks for rebounds in his direction and has a knack for the baseline block on the weak side. He's also a solid, if unspectacular, ball handler who can initiate the offense in small spurts. Overall, his offense is his main course and it looks to resemble a very early model of Paul Pierce. His ceiling is extremely high; the rest is up to Barnes to add.

Weaknesses (-) - As mentioned above, Harrison Barnes is not supremely athletic in small spurts; his first step doesn't leave anybody in the dust and he has yet to finish above anybody (his size) on the drive. His most pressing offensive improvement needs to be the addition of a low-post game; while Barnes has already flashed a nifty fadeaway, he enters into it from a spin off the dribble. He's strong enough to bully opposing 3's if he can just figure out how to do it. Barnes is also a step slow, defensively. His man sneaks around him without the rock because Barnes tends to eye the ball-handler. HB's rebounding and defense is average at best. Barnes is also a bit shot-happy and Warriors fans must hope his tunnel vision clears up by the regular season.

Strengths (+) - Ezeli is an NBA ready enforcer. Pound for pound, he's the strongest player on the Golden State roster. Broad shouldered and cannon-armed, Ezeli is a physical, tenacious defender who looks for the block as often as the board. He's got veteran level footwork and hustles on every play. A potential starting center, Festus Ezeli uses his wide body as well as anybody taken in the 2012 draft by boxing his man out and using Garnett style wraps and locks as soon as the shot goes up. Offensively, Ezeli is already a thunderous finisher and has displayed a powerful post game in limited touches. Surprisingly, he's also hit jumpers out to 15 feet. He's also been an effective rebounder in terms of rebounding rate; a testament to his fundamental rebounding and team based box outs.

Weaknesses (-) - Typical rookie big men issues: Ezeli doesn't do much offensively, still has to figure out how to expand himself on screens, and picks up a bit too many fouls. It'd be nice to see him improve his rebounding and, fundamentally, he's inept at handling or passing the ball at this stage. The anti-Carl Landry, Ezeli is not in the game for any sort of offense and keeps to his role as the hard-fouling, smash-mouthed enforcer.

Strengths (+) - A top notch vocal leader and glue guy, Green's value is best described in terms of the team, rather than individual numbers. He understands spacing and knows where to be at all times. He's a smart defender who doesn't reach, moves his feet, and uses the defender's right to space as his biggest weapon. His shooting is above-average and should eventually open up the middle when he becomes a rotation player. He doesn't need to be the man; he's only concerned with winning. Green can rebound better than any current Warrior wing and looks to mix it up on the glass rather than leak out. Overall, Green will be a career sub, but his value is not to be diminished just because he doesn't seek out flashy plays or numbers.

Weaknesses (-) - Green is athletically handicapped and quite possibly in over his head at the NBA level. He isn't quick enough to be a 3 and at 6'7" is undersized for a 4. He's a step slow, doesn't have the cleverness offensively to ever be an isolation option, and can't defend the elite class of NBA scorers. Green is best described as solid but unspectacular and that label may limit his potential as far as where he can go at the pro level.

Again, for the benefit of those without League Pass who haven't seen our newest additions play live, here are my scouting reports for them. I'll update these with the regular roster before the start of the season. Here's what kind of players the Warriors acquired:

32 wrote:2013 OFFSEASON GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS SCOUTING REPORTS

SF - 9 - ANDRE IGUODALA

STRENGTHS (+): Iguodala is among the league's preeminent lockdown perimeter defenders. Long enough to play the 3, quick enough to guard points, strong enough to stay with 4's; Iguodala is the rare breed of player who can neutralize any perimeter star and frustrate offensive players into inefficient nights. He trails only Avery Bradley and Tony Allen, in terms of perimeter lock-down guys, but his strength gives him an added dimension that neither of them have. Against smaller players, Iguodala uses his tremendous reach to keep a hand in his man's face, denies the ball well, and has A+ footwork, keeping himself between his man and the basket. He has quick hands and good instincts, equally effective playing the passing lanes as he is at poking the ball loose. Against a bigger player, Iguodala does well giving just enough contact to knock his man off-balance without committing a foul. He has excellent equilibrium and lowers his frame on post players, along with using tie-ups and good positioning to keep his man off the glass. Rebounding-wise, Iguodala hits the defensive boards with the immediate intention of starting the break, either as a lane-filler or by himself pushing the rock. His handles are top-notch for a non-point guard and he finds teammates better in the open floor than he does in a half court setting. Iggy prefers to play the game fast because he capitalizes extremely well on opponents' mistakes. With the ball in his hands, Iguodala is a top 5 playmaker for his position; his improved jumper has made him a plus pick-and-roll option, where before teams could go under screens and deny him the drive, they now have to respect his jumper. He's good at finding the open man in a halfcourt setting; penetrates and kicks, skips passes, and throws lobs when the situation calls for it. When it comes to finishing, few have the pure tools that Iguodala has; he not only elevates with an elite leaping ability, but he seems to hang in the air and finishes at the rim or off the glass with a feathery touch. In an ideal situation, Iguodala is a secondary ball-handler and a third or fourth offensive option; within those parameters, no one is better than Iguodala. He is perhaps the most talented and highly skilled glue guy in the entire NBA.

WEAKNESSES (-): While his range has steadily improved over the course of his career, Iguodala's kryptonite is and has always been his jumper. Despite being a perennially low-30's three-point shooter, Iguodala jacks up 2-3 every night. The most haunting thing about his game is his abysmal free throw shooting, which (unlike most players) has actually gotten worse overtime. In a good year, Iggy will shoot 70% from the line; the past 2 seasons, he's been under 62%. Iguodala is typically a net-gain in the pick-and-roll department, but he has a knack for throwing a bounce pass between a split screen that usually results in a giveaway. His turnovers are a bit of a red-flag, as he averages 2.5 on his career without the usage rate of a point guard. Iguodala has also become more passive throughout his time in the NBA, leading teams to surrender him the outside areas because (a) he can't hit shots from out there and (b) often times, he won't even take them. For a guy with his physical gifts, Iguodala should get to the line more often, but hasn't yet found a way to do so. And, as with his percentage from the line and overall shots from the field, Iggy's free throw attempts are in heavy decline from as recent as 4 years ago.

STRENGTHS (+): O'Neal's best skill throughout his entire NBA career has been his ability to guard the rim. Unlike Bogut or Ezeli, who use their bodies to ward off potential drivers and stay grounded for the box-out, O'Neal hunts for swats inside the paint and leaves his feet quite often in search of volleyball spikes into the first row. He has top notch instincts that jive with his body and position; he doesn't go for pump fakes or head swings, he isn't concerned with bigs who want to step out and shoot jump shots; O'Neal is only interested in thumping close range attempts and making opponents think twice before bringing the ball into the paint. In a backup role that lasted 55 games last season amid an average of 18 minutes per night, O'Neal was still able to block 3 or more shots five times last year (including one 7 block game against Dallas). In year 17, he proved he was still a defensive force capable of anchoring a team inside. Offensively, O'Neal is no longer the athletic stud that made him such a thunderous finisher at the rim and he never did acquire a pet jump shot to compliment his post skills, but he makes the routine plays; he can lay the ball up from either side, he finishes through contact, and he looks to get defenders in the air with the intention of finding his way to the free throw line (where he shoots a respectable percentage typically in the mid-70's). An average rebounder, Jermaine is at his best when he doesn't have to play a surplus of heavy minutes and can contribute as a team's defensive stud off the bench.

WEAKNESSES (-): O'Neal fancies himself as an offensive option and he's better suited to be purely a finisher. His back-to-the-basket game has gotten savvy over time, but he relied heavily on his athleticism to finish inside and where once was a thunderous dunker who put people on posters is now a grounded veteran that shoots a surplus of free throws because teams would rather foul him than let him get going. He adds nothing to the pick-and-roll game because he can't shoot from further than 8 feet out and he doesn't roll as quickly as he used to. Jermaine is also an absolute black hole inside the paint whose assist-to-turnover ratio is in the negative on his career. His tendency to leave his feet on defense gives him the usually shot-blocker gripes: loses track of his man on help defense, surrenders rebounds in search of swats, doesn't come out of the paint and allows smaller players to tee off from mid to close range. All that being said, Jermaine's most frustrating weakness is his brittle body that has failed him over the course of his NBA career: just when a team is ready to put responsibility on his shoulders, something breaks. It remains to be seen just how well Jermaine will perform outside of the regenerative team in Phoenix that resurrected a player who looked, in Boston, like he was ready to wash out of the game. With tempered expectations, O'Neal will be an asset, but those who begin to buy into the hype once he puts up a block party or slams it on another center will be frustrated when he disappears the following week.

STRENGTHS (+): Douglas is a nasty on-ball pest in the mold of Muggsy Bogues; a tremendously quick, irritating sticky defender who causes a lot of mistakes with his buzzing hands and in-your-face style of defense against ball-handlers. Douglas is lightening fast, has a huge wingspan for his size, and improves team defense by barking out orders and direction when he's on that end of the floor. It was no coincidence that both Houston and Sacramento ran more when Douglas was in the lineup. A vocal leader on both ends with decent handles, Douglas is also a nuts-on outside shooter and gives Golden State another weapon to run with. He's a tremendous gunner from the catch and off-the-dribble whose also learning to knock down points curling off screens as well. With a lead late in the game, a lineup of Bogut, Speights, Iguodala, Thompson, and Douglas can absolutely shut down an offense and squeeze the life out of an opposition.

WEAKNESSES (-): Douglas is not a natural point guard and his playmaking skills are below average. Because of this (and his lack of size - 6'2"), he cannot be used to put Curry off the ball with the same efficiency as Jarrett Jack. Douglas is also a poor scorer inside of the 3-point line; he's a career 36% beyond the arc, but only 40% overall, due to the fact that he doesn't finish well around the rim and is a poor decision-maker (which also hinders his passing). On the offensive end, Douglas is little more than a spot-up 3-point shooter. He can't orchestrate an offense, can't read the defense, and - for a guy with his speed and handles - doesn't get to the line as often as he should. Thus far into his career, Douglas is little more than a specialist who looks like he'll always be a backup.

STRENGTHS (+): Mo Speights is an ideal pick-and-pop big. He's enormous (height of Lee, weight of Bogut), he's mean, he's nasty, and he knocks down the 16-foot jumper like absolute clockwork. A natural scorer, Speights can score from both a back-to-the-basket stance or as a shooter off the catch. Speights has a pet hook shot out of the post, uses three different pump-fakes (including an Al Jefferson long-arm ball show), and can get buckets underhanded after leaning his frame into his opposite number. Overshadowing his underrated post game is Speights' jump shot; a top-notch weapon for his position that doesn't quite reach 3-point range, but is wet from anywhere inside the line and reaches 80% at the free throw line. He's a wide-bodied screen setter who lays down a better pick than anyone in Golden State not named Andrew Bogut and has the ability to knock down his J consistently even when he catches the rock off a bad pass (aka, out of rhythm). Despite his assist numbers not reflecting it, Mo is a smart passer who moves the ball well from his spot and doesn't throw the ball away very often (same career assists and Landry with 0.5 less turnovers). On defense, Speights has steadily improved over his NBA career, though he's not the shot-blocker scouts believed he would be out of college. A superior rebounder to any Warrior backup last year, Speights hits the offensive glass well and goes back up off of two feet without being deterred by heavy contact. His width gives him the ability to play center. Most exciting of all is Speights' mean streak, making him a bona fide candidate to be another Warrior enforcer alongside Ezeli and Bogut.

WEAKNESSES (-): Speights' position is a bit of a mystery; he's not quite quick enough to efficiently defend the 4, but he's also not tall enough to play most centers. Offensively, Speights is limited by his lack of handles, so defenders tend to crowd him out of the face-up knowing that he's not great when he puts the ball on the floor. He's Landry-like insofar as his scoring is what makes him an asset and when his jumper is cold, Speights doesn't have much value on the floor. Conditioning is a minor issue; he fatigues quickly and hasn't played more more than 64 games in 3 of his 5 NBA seasons. He's also a bit of a glory-hog; Speights played 5 less minutes than Landry last year, but took more shot attempts per game. While Mo hustles on defense, the fact that he doesn't get his ass off the ground limits his ability to block shots.