2013 NFL Draft Preliminary Thoughts

Some will say this is way too premature. I say that's just silly. I'm a draftnik, you can't make me not think about the Draft at any time of the year.

First of all let's talk Free Agency for 2012

Here are our UFAs.

Victor Butler, OLB (Would they consider him a starter next year and bring him back?)

Kenyon Coleman, DE (doubt he makes this team)

Rudy Carpenter, QB (doubt he makes this team)

Derrick Dockery, OG (50/50 he makes this team)

Mike Jenkins, CB (we all figure he is gone)

Felix Jones, RB (I figure he is gone)

L.P. Ladouceur, LS (May lost out to Huglett this year)

Daniel Loper (doubt he makes this team)

Stephen McGee, QB (Hope he doesn't make this team.)

Kevin Ogletree, WR (playing for a new contract)

John Phillips, TE (50/50 they let him go after this year)

Anthony Spencer, OLB (We already know he is not getting a long term deal at this point.)

C.J. Wilson, CB (doubt he makes this team)

That's 9 players who might make this team in 2012. Of those 9 you can pretty much bet 7 of the players will not be back in 2013.

Here are the RFAs.

Teddy Williams, CB (gone)

Javarris Williams, RB (longshot for PS)

Mana Silva (gone)

Akwasi Owusu Ansah, DB (gone)

Danny McCray, S (could stick)

Orie Lemon, ILB (Could stick)

Clifton Geathers, DE (50/50 he makes this team)

Phil Costa, C (Makes 2012 team, would they bring him back?)

Barry Church, S (Made the team and will get a new deal.)

Rob Calloway, NT (50/50 between he and Brent for the backup NT role)

Mario Butler, CB (made the team IMO, could be brought back)

Baraka Atkins, OLB (gone)

That makes 7 of this list who might make this team. I think at best 3 of them will be brought back in 2013.

That means barring injuries or retirements, we will shuffle about 12 new faces into the deck in 2013.

Because of this I put the 2013 draft needs as follows.

1. Center
2. OLB
3. OG
4. RB
5. WR
6. TE

If Doug Free continues to struggle in any way I will move RT way up my list.

It is my belief that we would probably target OLB in the first round over OL. I expect the Longhorns crowd to start thinking Alex Okafor, and I honestly do not mind this idea if Spencer is not wrapped up and Butler leaves as well. I kind of hope Adrian Hamilton is a diamond in the rough, but I don't mind finding a bookend in the draft either. My early pet cat is Brandon Jenkins of Florida State.

This will not deter me in any way from pimping Barrett Jones of Alabama as our answer in 2013's Draft.

I think it is a weak RB class, so I wouldn't look before round 4, and I would try to find a guy who can be a KR/PR too. Perhaps a Geovani Bernard from UNC.

WR may not be an issue we focus on if Ogletree or the young guns (Beasley, Coale, Harris, and Holmes) come through.

OL is. I would prefer we take Ol with 2 of our first 3 picks and think if we don't it better mean Livings and Bernadeau were all everything for us in 2012.

Would Dallas look for a QB for the future so soon after acquiring Orton as insurance? I think that depends but I can see us drafting one around the 4th to groom as McGee tried to. My early pet there might be Casey Pachall of TCU. We shall see.

-Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU (R-JR)
Will Likely come out. I'm a bit leary of the LSU duo due to the talent on the D-line at LSU, butwith a big year I think Montgomery could go top 10.
-Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU (R-JR)
Little bit less high on him. For starters, I always subtract an inch off college players, so I am skeptical as to how much size Mingo can add to a 6'3 frame. If he can't, add size w/o losing speed, then he's destined to be a situational rusher at best.
-Brandon Jenkins, DE, FSU (SR)
Not nearly as big on him as Hos and SDogo. There was a drop off in production from his Sophomore to his Junior year, and I think that trend will continue. However if he bounces back, he'll easily go top 15 or top 10.
-Bjonern Werner, DE, FSU (JR)
Was productive as a sophomore, needs to prove last year wasn't a fluke. Doubt he comes out unless he has a moster year.
-Jackson Jeffcoat, DE, Texas (JR)
Would love to add him opposite of Ware. Not realistic at all unless we're a pretty bad team, but if we found a way, I'd be estatic. Unlike Werner, I think Jeffcoat comes out if he improves at all off of last season.
-Alex Okefor, DE, Texas (SR)
Would be a nice fall back option, if Spencer leaves and all the big time pass rushers are gone. I don't see him being too much more productive than Spencer, but likely more consistent at the very least.
-Sean Porter, OLB, Texas A&M (SR)
Had a great year playing Von Miller's old spot. Isn't the athlete that Von MIller is, but he has a knack for finding QBs. Playing LB is a plus considering we want an "all-around" player replacing Spencer.
-Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia (R-JR)
Very intriguing prospect. Has 3-4 expierence which is a plus, and had more sacks and more tfl last year than anyone on this list. If he has a similar season, he very well could be the first pass rusher taken.

Nothing to rip apart. I doubt they draft an OL in the first even though it would not bother me to see anybody to the right of Tyron Smith replaced. If the team goes 8-8 they'll draft a pass rushing OLB. If they go 6-10 you can best believe they will be looking QB (and I'm a Romo fan). Too many franchise QB's this draft and they arent always there when you need them, also the trend now is draft a QB and throw em out there, not as much money involved. If they make the playoffs and do anything all bets are off. Wild card is Free saw him look shaky footwork and hand wise so far. If a stud OT is there, its a possibility.

I have a feeling that the Cowboys will be most interested in drafting an OLB. I would love to get a blue-chip Center, but I don't know if Garrett believes in drafting certain positions in the 1st, including interior OL.

I just get the feeling that Garrett is an old school by-the-book type, that believes that the following are the top positions in football:

-Brandon Jenkins, DE, FSU (SR)
Not nearly as big on him as Hos and SDogo. There was a drop off in production from his Sophomore to his Junior year, and I think that trend will continue. However if he bounces back, he'll easily go top 15 or top 10.

Done for the season with some foot injury. Most unfortunate for him, but due to being a senior, I think he still declares for the draft, but will be a second day pick at best.

Manwiththeplan;4679565 said:

-Bjonern Werner, DE, FSU (JR)
Was productive as a sophomore, needs to prove last year wasn't a fluke. Doubt he comes out unless he has a moster year.

I know it was Murray State, but he had a 4 sack, 5 TFL game in week 1 (do they count sacks as TFL?), so he's off to a great start.

8/16/12: Carder has been a prolific passer for Western Michigan and was a 2011 Second-Team All-MAC performer as a junior. He lit up Purdue in his bowl game, completing 31-of-57 passes for 439 yards and three touchdowns.

Carder played well against Illinois and Michigan as well. Against Connecticut, he completed 37-of-51 passes for 479 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions, carrying the Broncos to a road win over the Huskies.

Carder completed 66 percent of his passes for 3,873 yards with 31 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 2011. He has a nice arm and is a good decision-maker. His senior season will be more difficult without star wide receiver Jordan White.

Carder completed 63 percent of his throws in 2010 for 3,334 yards with 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He has been extremely efficient for Western Michigan.

If we lose Spencer and with Wares age OLB becomes our #1 need. Not good.

I think we are best off keeping Spencer.

He costs too much and produces too little. Ratliff is entering the same boat.

In the end you have 3 resources to build your roster: draft, free agency and salary cap. You also have to be constantly revitalizing your roster with young players and you have to avoid paying too much salary to older players whose skill and ability tends to rapidly decline once they hit around 30. If you put too much salary investments in such players you will usually have to pay a price somewhere down the line. The only ones who won't are those who can convert older players into high draft picks before they decline - the Patriots and the Eagles. Can you think of an example where the Cowboys did this? The only one that comes to mind is Herschel Walker and we know how that one turned out.

Unless he starts producing 10 sack seasons we can't pay him $9M/yr. He is also getting close to 30 and will soon start to decline. So you may get 2-3 good years out of him before he declines. The problem is Ware will be declining along a similar time curve as they were acquired only two drafts apart from one another. When Ware starts producing only 6-9 sacks per year Spencer's 4-6 sacks per year isn't going to cut it. At that point you'll have wished a higher pick was spent on a high sack player who could be entering his prime as Ware begins to fade. We need to see this path coming to plan for it now by going for Ware's heir apparent now. Ware is entering his 8th season, he has a neck problem that seems to act up every year during the season but this year it started in TC.

Look I wish I could also stick my head in the sand and pretend Ware will get us 15-20 sacks per year for the next 7 years but that is very unlikely to happen based on past history. When he loses just a little burst he could be done as an elite pass rusher. We have to expect this to happen fairly soon and we want his replacement to be on the roster already so that the defense doesn't tank and we don't have to reach in the draft (see Shante Carver, Kavika Pitman, Ebenezer Ekuban).

I agree with Hos 100%. It is time to find Ware a new complementary pass rusher. Giving Spencer a $10M/yr contract is going to come back to bite us in 2 years when he is a JAG, Ware is in decline and there is no one to pick up the pass rush slack.

Now it's just a matter of finding that player who has the requisite size, strength, burst, quickness and pass rushing skill. I would be okay with trading up for this player if need be.