my gut feeling is that's exactly what he needs to do.. and you know i have GREAT respect for maia's mma offensive (chain)wrestling

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One of the reasons (not the only one, but one of them) that Maia's chain wrestling is so good is that he can ALWAYS ride it out and attempt to complete the TD. Meaning most guys in MMA when they change levels and start trying to take someone down (esp against the cage) will stop the pursuit if they feel themselves getting off balance or in a spot where they might be the one that ends up on their back. Counter-wrestling in MMA is probably the thing that's improved the most as a whole over the last 10-15 years. Generally, NOBODY wants to end up on their back in an MMA fight. Not strikers for sure, and not grapplers either really. Maia's guard and overall grappling game are at a level where he is the rare exception that absolutely doesn't care if he ends up on his back. There's numerous reasons. His guard is obviously elite. His ability to sweep is elite. His overall grappling game from any position is elite. He's in that top tier .0000001% of MMA fighters with his grappling game. The other reason is that his striking ISN'T that good. So pretty much anyone that would end up with top position on him is just going to be looking to get the hell up and strike some more.

I'm not gona gif hunt, but I've seen Maia multiple times get stuffed on his initial TD attempt to the point where the other guy has actually managed to disengage and has broken contact and Maia is on his knees facing him and Maia STILL pursues the TD. Almost everyone else in MMA resets at that point and gives up on that attempt.

I see Maia getting ahold of a single, Woodley stuffing it, and when Maia tries to drag Woodley to the mat a scramble ensuing where Maia eventually gets what he wants. It might not happen on the first TD attempt or the second, but I think it does happen. Maybe Woodley blasts Maia with a big shot first, but I like Maia by sub here.

Was really hoping for +150 or so on Knight and I was planning to go big. Moreso because I love his style than how I actually cap the fight.

EZ is right though, have to play Lamas at these odds. Massive step up in competition and clear path to victory with his wrestling. Hopefully this Luca guy or whatever is name is ends up on Lamas and we get a massive odds shift.