Halfway home on '98 forecast

"Surprisingly good" is the verdict on my late 1997
prognostication of what 1998 would bring to Internet commerce. Quite a few predictions were right, a handful dead wrong, and for the rest, the year's still young enough to recover.

July 13, 19984:00 AM PDT

"Surprisingly good" is the verdict on my late 1997
prognostication of what 1998 would bring to Internet commerce. Quite a few
predictions were right, a handful dead wrong, and for the rest, the year's
still young enough to recover.

But let's first talk about several trends we missed: "Portal" became the detestable
buzzword of choice. Yahoo's purchase of ViaWeb to host Web
storefronts will have a major impact, as could GeoCities' effort to let merchants set up storefronts in its virtual
neighborhoods. Online auctions are taking hold not just among consumers,
but businesses too, though business
auctions are less visible because they're on extranets.

Now let's go to the predictions, scored overall as 17 right, 7 wrong, and 12
undecided:

ISP/telco: As predicted, AT&T got into the acquisition business with
its pending bid for cable giant
TCI, and Sprint bought 30
percent of ISP EarthLink Network Sprint, linking their Net
operations. Two former Baby Bells are merging, SBC and Ameritech. But ISP
Verio opted for an IPO rather than selling to a telco.
Score: 3 right, 1 wrong.

Security: Yes, merger mania is the main game in network security, and
firewall firms were popular purchases. Trusted Information Systems sold to Network Associates, which also added Secure Networks to its
security stable. Though virtual private networks (VPNs) are topical, they
have produced no acquisitions. As network and security management converge,
Cisco continued its security play in buying intrusion detection firm WheelGroup, while security firm Check Pointbought IP networker MetaInfo. So
far, 3Com is still sitting out the security dance. Score: 3 right, 3 wrong.

Intrusion detection: As predicted, this is where the action is in Internet security.
Internet Security Systems went public, WheelGroup sold to Cisco, Security
Dynamics acquired Intrusion
Detection, and
Network Associates bought Haystack Lab's technology. Network Associates
just sued ISS over patents, so this market is now mainstream. Score: 1 right.

Subscriptions: Few publishers are charging for content, though many
would like to. Microsoft's Slate e-zine
finally did the subscription
thing, but Cowles New Media's Media Daily news service tried, then backed off. Score: 1 right.