What Merrimack needs to get into the NCAA tournament

While there are still multiple scenarios in play — too many to list all of the particulars of how Merrimack could qualify — there seem to be three results that ALL must play out on Saturday in order for Merrimack to have a chance at the NCAA tournament:

If ALL of those results play out, there are still multiple scenarios. Some sees Merrimack get in, while others don’t. And right now, with so many to flip back and forth, it’s hard to get anything definite than what’s listed above.

I will say there are scenarios where the result of the remaining games can all go one way or the other and there are ways for Merrimack to get in. There are no scenarios that I can find that gets Merrimack a tourney spot without ALL of the above three scenarios playing out.

But, if all three scenarios above play out and Western Michigan wins the CCHA Championship, I’d peg Merrimack at having an 80-85% chance of getting into the tournament (with RIT, Colgate, Union and Western Michigan all winning).

Be sure to check back here throughout the evening and night on Saturday while we update you on other results around the country and provide analysis on how it impacts the Warriors.

What was the full scenario, Tom? I can’t find one that works with Air Force beating RIT unless Harvard beats Union, which would eliminate Merrimack by virtue of Harvard getting an auto-bid and cutting the at-large bids from 15 to 14.

Merrimack would be T-14th with Michigan State and lose the tie-breaker.

@Chapter11 – you don’t HAVE to root for BC, but there may be scenarios later in the night where BC winning either helps or is a must. Will be updating the blog throughout the night tonight.

I don’t know if I can do it. I suppose if Merrimack *absolutely* needs it I could bring myself to cheer for BC … but I won’t feel good about it. Thanks for all these updates here and on Twitter, by the way. I’ve never checked/stalked one person’s tweets so religiously as I have this weekend.

No worries … in the top scenario, it would be a 4-way tie for 14th and Merrimack would finish 16th. … Same scenario in the bottom.

I’ll keep trying but I don’t see a scenario where Air Force wins the AHA title and Merrimack gets in. But, we won’t know for sure until later tonight once we start to see those results. There are literally still thousands of possible scenarios in play.

We thought originally that last night, there was only ONE where Merrimack qualified, and that’s not correct. So things change almost by the minute as we see results from games and current score projects. Things got whacky last night because no one thought BG would beat Michigan. They didn’t, but while they were winning and I was running possibilities with BG winning, others came to light.

Tom G

Mike – Sorry to perseverate here – If Maine beats BC, and the games play out below we end up in a three way tie for 14th but win the tie breaker with Michigan state

That would result in a 3-way tie (Merrimack, Northern Michigan, Michigan State) but Merrimack finishes last in the 3-way tie-breaker, meaning they would finish 14th.

A 1-on-1 comparison between Michigan State and Merrimack, Merrimack would win. But the 3-way ties are broken differently and Michigan State has a better RPI (exactly how ties are broken isn’t clear, but has been ascertained through studying history, expertise, etc.) … So traditionally speaking, that scenario would have Merrimack out of the tournament. But like I said, the committee could set a new precedent at any given time, but throughout history, that is how they have broken those 3-way ties.