Saturday, November 21, 2009

New Ipsos Poll: 13-pt Conservative Lead

Ipsos-Reid has a new poll out, more or less confirming the results of the Angus-Reid poll that was released yesterday.So, another Conservative result just below majority territory, and another Liberal result on the brink of annihilation. This 24% confirms that Angus-Reid's 23% was on the mark, and that the Liberals are actually in a worst-ever scenario.

The NDP saw a big bump from 13% to 19%, which is a very strong pre-writ number for them, especially considering the Greens are at 10%.

The Tories aren't as strong as they need to be in a few regions, however. The 37% in British Columbia isn't enough, and neither is the 20% in Quebec. The 31% in Atlantic Canada, while giving them the lead, is not a big result.

The Liberals are doing badly everywhere. British Columbia and the Prairies would put a lot of their MPs in danger, and 29% in Ontario is another bad, bad result. The 24% in Quebec is alright, that is what Dion got, but the 24% in Atlantic Canada is disastrous. However, small sample size there.

The NDP have to be excited with this poll. At 34% in British Columbia, they max out their potential seat gains. The 15% in the Prairies is bad, though, but 21% in Ontario is great. Their Atlantic and Quebec results are enough to keep what they have.

The Bloc should be happy with 38%, confirming Angus's findings that the Bloc is at or better than their 2008 result. The Greens did alright, particularly in Alberta, but the 21% they earned in this poll in Atlantic Canada has to be due to the small sample size.

I had to give the Greens a seat in Atlantic Canada. The Tories are kept out of a majority, but not by the Liberals. The Bloc and the NDP take the credit for that. The Conservatives win 69 seats in the West and North, 57 in Ontario, 9 in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals win 8 seats in the West and North, 31 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 14 in Atlantic Canada.

The NDP wins 18 seats out West, 18 in Ontario, 1 in Quebec, and 6 in Atlantic Canada.

The political picture we're looking at now is that the Tories, Bloc and the NDP are back to 2008 levels. The Liberals, however, are below 2008 levels. If we were headed into an election, the question would be who picks up the two-to-three points the Liberals have lost, and where.

65 comments:

A lot of what this poll says makes sense. The BC results are consistent with the pattern we saw in the NWC by-election and with the fact that provincial polls in BC show the NDP with a big lead. The Ontario numbers also make sense. There are many reasons why Liberals would start moving over to the NDP in that province and the only surprise is that its taken this long. Quebec is exactly like the last election - no surprises.

The sample sizes in the Prairie and Atlantic regions are way too small to draw any conclusions - and quite frankly, having the Green party at 21% in Atlantic makes me wonder if they put the decimal point in the wrong place and it should have been 2.1%. I think Nanos had a poll a few weeks ago that had Greens at ZERO in Atlantic.

Eric, when are you planning to do a new update on our projection now that we have three polls out this week to incorporate?

Also, will you post something about the two BC provincial polls out yesterday?

My usual aim is to post once per weekday and once per weekend. I'm going to keep the projection update for a day without a new poll. So, probably Monday.

As to the BC provincial polls, yes, I will post about it. Since provincial politics aren't the focus of this site and aren't very important in terms of time constraints, I'm planning to save them for a quiet day as well.

The Liberals are hitting the skids like the post-Mulroney PCs. The only people left voting for them are people who can't imagine voting for anything else.

The NDP, a party that stands for something is within a 10 seat switch with the Liberals from becoming the Official opposition.

Polls won't tell that.. That will come as a major surprise in an election campaign as the Reform became the Opposition.

This is playing out very similarly to the unification of the Right.

Next election the CPC gets a majority based on the vote splitting of the left. The NDP does much better than they ever have and become the obvious choice of the thinking Canadian socialist as the Reform party was the choice of the thinking capitalist.

Both The PC and Liberal party's will not be able to overcome the scandals of their past. The Reform party and NDP are scandal free and now with the unions losing sway with the NDP basically grass roots parties.

With viable scandal free options in Quebec ... NDP and CPC the Bloc will wither and Canada will be governed alternatively by the real socialists who make no apologies and a real Capitalist party that likewise believes in their policies.

I sure hope not. I'd rather be governed by Liberals than Socialists any day. The NDP scares me. I've lived life under Mike Harris and Bob Rae. I didn't care for either extreme. I'm a CPC supporter at heart but I want moderation and I want a choice. The NDP is not that choice. That being said I've never voted LPC or NDP federally but I want the choice so that CPC does not become a Mike Harris CPC.

This Ipsos poll seems like one of those rogue polls and the BC/Ontario numbers don't make much sense. Nothing on the ground has caused that shift. Just like when Ipsos recently had the NDP at 13% in BC, that didn't make much sense either.

Since ARS was the most accurate in the last election (and in the field at the same time as Ipsos), I lean toward their figures and their regionals also make a helluva lot more sense.

"This Ipsos poll seems like one of those rogue polls and the BC/Ontario numbers don't make much sense. Nothing on the ground has caused that shift. Just like when Ipsos recently had the NDP at 13% in BC, that didn't make much sense either."

In fact, there IS something that would cause that shift. Its called the HST. Its about as popular as Osama Bin Laden in BC and the NDP is the only party opposed to it. In the 2006 election the NDP had 29% support in BC. That dipped a bit to 26% in '08 partly because of candidate resignations during the campaign and because the Green party went up a bit. Last week about 20,000 real live VOTERS cast ballot in New Westminster Coquitlam - a riding that was Reform/Tory from 1993 to 2006 and it went NDP in a landslide. It all makes sense and if there is an election in the coming months, the Tories could lose 5 seats to the NDP in BC - and that can be the difference between majority and minority.

I like to think Manitoba NDP. They were basically as far left as made sense.... The way the Federal Liberals under Dion were trying to be.

By having a capitalist / socialist alternative we would not be in a situation where we vote in CPC and get socialist policies or vote in socailist Liberals and get Reform financal policies and the clarity act(thank God for that one).

The socialist / capitialist dance.... Universal medicare a good socialist concept/policy now needs a BIG dose of capitalism to make it sustainable.

As for Mike Harris hatred/fear - did he leave Ontario worse off than Rae or McGuinty will? When Harris/Eves got booted out Ontario was still handing over Billions to keep Canada (Quebec) happy.... nowhere near the failure they are today.

My read on Ontario is that today it is the worst position ever and will be under producing for 5-10 years. Still much better than Quebec or Atlantic Canada where there is no timeline for economic sustainability.

DL - you say that you are from Ontario, I'm from BC. Nobody out here that I come across personally ever talks about the HST in my circles. However, the HST dates back to July and probably is just as unpopular as the carbon tax although nobody talks about the carbon tax anymore either.

The ARS regional numbers make the most sense in BC. With Ipsos, the NDP is just as unlikely to get 13% as it is with 34% (both BC Ipsos figures over the past month or so).

Neither are the Liberals going to get 34% in BC, which they have also relatively recently polled.

For BC, the sample size in both polls is about 140 and anything below a sample size of 300 is still relatively useless.

Regarding the New Westminster Coquitlam by-election, that was mostly a "Fin Donnelly" vote, not an NDP vote, even with the paltry 29.9% turnout. That's the consensus of the BC political punditry.

And NWC was also a riding that the NDP almost managed to keep in 1993 (with Dawn Black) in face of the then Reform onslaught. The New Westminster portion also historically votes heavily NDP.

If you think "no one" in BC is talking about or cares about the HST - perhaps you have some other explanation for why the BC NDP is leading the BC Liberals by anywhere from 8 to 14 points and why Campbell now has a 70% disapproval rating?

You can try to dismiss NWC as being just a personal vote for the candidate. But every party is the sum of its parts and there will be more Fin Donnelly's ready run against Tory deadwood MPs in Bc in the next election.

DL - In November, 2008, before the May, 2009 election, ARS also had the NDP leading by 5 points and that was due to the fallout from the July 1, 2008 carbon tax.

For a few years previously, the Liberals were always ahead by 10 - 20 points.

Granted the same dynamics are at play here, with the Mustel Group showing the same vote that the NDP received in May, 2009, while some Liberal vote has moved over to both the Greens and Tories. People call that vote parking.

The gap with ARS is larger but the same dynamics are at play. Based upon the November, 2008 ARS poll, the trend-lines should begin to reverse in February next year (notwihstanding any Olympic bounce).

Strategically though, Carole James is akin to BC's own version of Sarah Palin with a 33% approval rating by ARS. Several BC NDP constituency associations also want a leadership review. James is on shakey ground and is not seen as a "Premier in waiting".

Campbell is also a negative lightening rod for the Liberals and the sooner he goes the better. He has always had high negative ratings. If he was not at the helm, the Liberals would probably have won by a 65 - 20 seat majority last May.

In a recent ARS poll, Surrey mayor Diane Watts was the top choice for BC premier, with high net positive ratings, while James was way down in 10th position on that list with negative ratings.

Once Campbell departs (the 3rd term thing, ie. Bennett and Doer), look forward toward Premier Diane Watts who also has alot of centre-left support in BC.

Yawn, if anyone is going to be the Sarah Palin of BC it will be a woman like Diane Watts leading BC's version of the Alaska Republican Party - namely the BC Liberals (who are "liberals" in name only).

I suspect that if Campbell quits there will be a fratricidal war between the Tory/Reform and federal Liberal factions of the BC Liberal party - and given how weak the Liberals have become in BC, I expect the Reform element to win out and install some right-wing crank as the new leader. If they go for someone more middle of the road, that person will be another Ernie Eves who will bumble along until inevitable defeat. By 2013, it will be TIME FOR A CHANGE in BC.

The results for the NDP in BC makes sense to me, it was the last 13% Natl result that seemed silly.

At this rate the NDP could play Reform to the Libs' PCs, but they should remember that Reform had the advantage of regional concentration to outdo the PCs in seats. To overcome the PCs even before the merger period, Reform had to rebrand itself from the top down in addition to the grassroots support. The Libs still have regional concentration and more money.(In addition to still being supported more)

The NDP won't be successful if they exceed the Liberals only by the latter falling under 17%.

Side-note: The Liberals have three big provincial governments who are looking a bit unpopular right now. Probably not helping, if anything.

And could you please stop commenting on BC? You're always way off the mark, its a bit embarrasing. Do you even have any background in this province? You're commenting on how people on the ground feel, I can tell you anon is totally correct.

Carol James is a joke and if there was ever a chance of her becoming premier people would vote strategically to block her. I don't even know if she will hold on to the leadership.

And people are mad at Campbell for DISHONESTY, not the HST. Its the fact that he didn't tell anyone about it for an entire election campaign.

While the Tories won the last two by big margins last year when they won the province 44-26%, if the gap between the Tories and NDP narrows (as current polls indicate) to something like 38%-31%, then they are in play - both were relatively close in '04 and '06 and have some history of being NDP leaning in the past.

As for Carol James, you can scream and yell all you want but despite what I would admit was a weak campaign strategy last spring, she came within 3% of winning the election!!

DL - 4 of the 5 ridings that you have listed have had either major or minor demographic shifts to the right inclusive of the Albertan/Ontario retiree phenomenon. One must have some detailed geographic/economic knowledge of the ridings to come to that understanding.

As for your top 5 NDP picks, why have they all been acclaimed (meaning no candidate interest - no contests) with NO-NAME candidates? (Unlike well-known Fin Donnelly in NWC).

1. Surrey North - Jasbir Sandhu, who runs a small restaurant in the White Rock/South Surrey area; (certainly not a Penny Priddy)

2. Vancouver Island North - perennial candidate Catherine Bell, elected once and then defeated;

3. Kamloops - Michael Crawford, another perennial candidate. The NDP went on a 2 month candidate search in an attempt to get someone else but no one else was interested.

4. Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission - David Murray, CUPE member who works for the Port Coquitlam parks;

5. Nanaimo Alberni - Zeni Maartman, another retread candidate.

The point is that NO ONE else wanted to stand for these NDP nominations, likely because of the probability of a lost cause.

As for Carole James, when NDP constituency associations are requesting a leadership review, that speaks volumes. Anyway, when Gordo Campbell leaves, the Liberal negative optics will likely leave with him.

Tell you what. You take Carole James and trade her for Andrea Horwath. Then Carole James can lead the ONDP to victory. ;)

I'm not sure what you mean about Surrey North being more "market-friendly" these days. Its just about the poorest riding in BC and the two provincial ridings that make it up went over 70% NDP and are the two most NDP ridings in the whole province. Cadman's widow (you know, the one who accused the leader of her own party of tryng to bribe her late husband) barely won last time against a very weak last minute NDP candidate and with Tories having an 18 point lead over the NDP across the province. By all accounts she has been a totally invisible MP and she will be flushed down the toilet next time.

YOu can talk all you want about demographic changes - but anyways you slice it if the popular vote across BC goes from an 18 point Tory lead to about 6 point Tory lead over the NDP - seats will change hands. Two weeks ago people were going on about "demographic changes" in New Westminster-Coquitlam that were going to pave the way to a Tory win - then brain dead woman they ran got crushed like a cockroach that got stomped on on the sidewalk.

You can delude yourself into thinking that Campbell just has to retire and all the posuion will go with him, but that;'s what Tories thought when Mulroney quit in 1993 - and then his successor Kim Campbell got 2 seats. Whoever comes after Campbell for the BC Liberals will be another Kim Campbell or Ujjal Dosanjh.

"I'm not sure what you mean about Surrey North being more "market-friendly" these days."

The successful mayor has demonstrated to people that the solution to poverty and crime isn't backwards NDP style economic policy from the 90's but instead robust land development and low taxes.

The Cons control all but 1 of the 4 Surrey seats and they've steadily been making inroads into the heavy ethnic populations present in the city.

In fact, based on public polling alone amongst which party is most popular amongst immigrants one would expect the Conservatives to do quite well in this riding.

For the last time, provincial NDP numbers don't translate to federal numbers! Its a 2 party system going to a 3 party system.

"anyways you slice it if the popular vote across BC goes from an 18 point Tory lead to about 6 point Tory lead over the NDP - seats will change hands."

You should know better than that. Support doesn't increase evenly across all ridings - in fact one would expect the ridings where the NDP were the LEAST popular to show the biggest gains, as they had the most room for growth. The ridings where they were the MOST popular should see less growth because NDP sentiment was probably already maxed out.

"New Westminster-Coquitlam"

Wow, the NDP won a riding they won last time. And the Tory candidate lost 3 points of the '08 total. I thought you were just arguing the Tories would lose 12 points across the province !

"Whoever comes after Campbell for the BC Liberals will be another Kim Campbell or Ujjal Dosanjh."

That's fine. Now is the time for the Conservative party to rise and repeal the HST and Carbon Tax.

Once there is a non-Liberal alternative support for the NDP will drop significantly. They'll no longer get the protest vote and nobody believes they're against taxes (even though they claim to be anti HST/Carbon Tax).

Plus the enviro types will flock to the GREENS because of the NDP's horrible enviro record (anti-carbon tax position).

The HST is seems to be a valid and fair tax that will have the least negative impact on economic growth. Right now it it is very unpopular and if an election were held the NDP (who never saw a tax or a public service they didn't like) would win. They wouldn't revoke the HST or would and would double income tax... which once again would be unpopular.

BUT by the time the next election rolls around in 3 years.... I can almost guarantee you the HST will not be a negative issue, if it is an issue at all.

Majority governments give the government the chance to do things that are correct long term solutions that will be initially unpopular.

That's nonsense. We supposedly live in a democracy. Campbell should have had the HST in his platform in the Spring and campaigned on it and then if he won, he would have had a mandate. Why bother having elections at all if you think that we really need a benevolent dictatorship that will do unpopular things that are good in the long run (and that is debatable)?

Not be too sure that no one will care about the HST in 2013. Mulroney brought in the GST in 1990 and three years later, Canadians were still pissed off enough to reduce his party to TWO SEATS.

DL - The federal NDP vote share in BC has been consistently shrinking from 33% in the '60's and 70's and from 35%+ in the '80's (when the Trudeau Liberal brand was an anethma to the BC voter).

Over the last three elections it has gone down from 29% to 26%, and will likely continue to remain in the mid-20% range. With the Nova Scotia provincial NDP now about to raise their HST rate by 2% (!!!), you can bank on that.

Surrey North - Surrey North has traditional NDP demographics. In fact, after Vancouver East it has the second lowest over-all average income level.

But that's where the difference ends. Surrey North elected Reform/Canadian Alliance MP's since 1993 and it has a bit of a populist bent.

The "Cadman" name still has powerful resonance within the riding, and Dona Cadman is viewed by her constituents as an "Independent" conservative MP, as opposed to a Conservative MP.

And based upon the positive press that she has received in the local Surrey newspapers over the past year, Cadman apparently is also a good constituency MP.

During the 2008 election, Cadman was burdened with negative provincial and local press in terms of both the Harper matter as well as not appearing at all candidates meetings.

The Harper matter is now long forgotten and had that never been the case, I'd wager that the Cadman-NDP spread would have been greater.

The NDP has nominated, by acclamation, a no-name candidate who runs a small restaurant in the White Rock South Surrey area.

If the NDP wanted to nominate their own "Fin Donnelly" in Surrey North, that should have been poll-topping Surrey councillor and long-time New Democrat Judy Villeneuve who also resides in the riding.

But nobody else of any stature was willing to step forward for the NDP.

BTW, Judy Villenueve was so impressed with Surrey mayor Diane Watts that she decided to join her Surrey First municipal party in 2008. Imagine that! ;)

DL - Further regarding Surrey North, you stated on the Election Prediction Project:

"... a number of formidable candidates are lining up for the [NDP] nomination."

NOT!

You further stated:

"[Cadman] is rumoured to not like the job and to be planning to quit."

Actually, the NDP candidate in Surrey North is considered a top notch candidate - Jasbir Sandhu is not a "convenience store owner" (guess what? not all Indo-Canadians run convenience stores). He owns a restaurant and also works for the Justice Institute of BC. He was also the lead activist trying to get the government to apologize over the disgraceful Komagata Maru incident in 1913 when a boat load of immigrants from India was turned away from Vancouver by racist officials.

DL - Jasbir Sandhu is NOT a top notch candidate. He's a 20-year member of the NDP who owns My Village Restaurant in the White Rock-South Surrey area. Apparently he also works part time as an instructor.

NOBODY has ever heard of him.

BTW, the leftish Georgia Straight is not distributed in Surrey North.

By your definition, Rachid Arab, the 2008 NDP candidate was also top notch! He was also a long time NDP member and was managing engineer at an aerospace company. Nobody ever heard of him either.

"a piece of trailer park trash like Dona Cadman"

If that's going to be the NDP campaign emphasis in Surrey North, Dona Cadman has already won!

Obviously from your little temper tantrum, you are scared shitless than Cadman will be one of a bunch of Tories from BC who will be flushed down the toilet next election. The trend in BC is clear, 3% NDP margin in NWC in 2008 became a 14% margin just like that two weeks ago - and it will only get worse as fury about the HST mounts and people take it out on the nearest available scapegoat - FEDERAL TORIES.

Surrey North is a very low income riding - there is a reason why each provincial seat in it went NDP by a 3-1 margin over the provincial equivalent of the federal Tories.

We can argue all day about what might or might not happen in the next election - but there is a very clear correlation in BC that the richer a riding is, the more likely it is to vote Tory and the poorer it is the more likely it is to vote NDP. I predict the NDP will win Surrey North and won't even be particularly close, probably by about 4,000 votes.

DL - Port Coquitlam is the working class part of the Tri-Cities and elected provincial NDP MLA Mike Farnworth by a very wide margin. Yet federally, Tory James Moore won virtually every poll within the same boundaries.

Your hypothesis is broken right there.

Again, the NWC by-election was mostly a "Fin Donnelly" vote. Had the NDP selected one of the other two candidates, the spread would have been much closer. It could even have been a Tory win.

BTW, when the voting public is made aware of the NDP's true intentions, such as the Nova Scota NDP's embarkment on raising their HST by 2% and raising other taxes, any anti-HST rants will fall upon deaf ears.

In any event, the anti-HST sentiment in BC is focused upon Victoria, not Ottawa.

As an aside, the federal NDP ran very poor campaigns in BC in 2006 and 2008 and nothing seems to change that outlook. OTOH, the Tories have run very effective BC specific campaigns, esp. on the airwaves.

My prediction - Surrey North will be held by Dona Cadman with an increased margin. You can bank on it.

DL: A little off topic but I really truly wish our governments would stop apologizing for wrongs, far in the past. Yes the "Komagata Maru incident in 1913 when a boat load of immigrants from India was turned away from Vancouver by "racist" officials." may well have been racist by today's standards. It certainly wasn't viewed that way in 1913, almost a century ago. We can not address every wrong ever done to an individual or group. We also should assess right and wrong in the context of what was acceptable practice for the era in which these things occurred. The past is past and can't be undone. None of the current Parliament was born when this incident took place and the small percentage of Canadians who were alive in 1913 were so young that they certainly had no say in the matter. It is time to move on and build the nation of Canada, with Canadians of all backgrounds realizing that when they come here they leave their country of origin behind. Please don't think I am asking immigrants to abandon either their culture or their religion. However their country should be Canada. There shouldn't be Tamils demonstrating on the streets of Toronto about a war in Siri Lanka. They are Canadians now first and foremost. I feel the same way about Canadians of Italian decent holding seats in Italy's parliament, or Stephane Dion holding dual French and Canadian citizenship and running to be our PM. A multi cultural Canada fine, a multi-national Canada, no.

The NDP doesn't have to promise to scrap the HST if it takes power federally. People are pissed off and all the NDP has to do is say "SEND THEM A MESSAGE"! and show how you feel. Voters do that all the time. A vote is a chance to express yourself on an issue.

That being said, the most likely scenario is that the next federal budget will contain enabling legislation for the HST. If the government falls on the budget then the enabling legislation is void and the NDP can campaign saying that if they win the election, they will not reintroduce it and that they will let the HST die on the vine and then Campbell and McGuinty can go into a corner and sulk!

"There shouldn't be Tamils demonstrating on the streets of Toronto about a war in Siri Lanka."

I agree and I might add that I'm Jewish and wish my "co-religionists" would shut up about Israel and stop trying to import the Middle East conflict to Canada as well. Israel can fight its own battles and I for one am oblivious about what happens to it. I only care about Canada!

The Federal Liberals could also run against the HST especially if the Government falls over it. Ontario would go Liberal red, at least enough to reduce the the CPC to a weak minority. The HST was not IMO something that was well thought out by Harper. Another of his missteps. Especially in ON where is it going to raise the price of gasoline, electricity, natural gas, heating oil, and water by 8%. People will be head hunting when they get their bills. The HST will add more than a hundred dollars a month to to what consumers pay for those necessary commodities. I can't think they'll be happy. The hardest hit as always who will see only a small reduction in income tax and receive none of the low income tax credits. There will be a rebellion.

Listen, Layton's "Im running to be PM" line worked very well last time. The NDP entered the campaign at 13% in the polls and finished at 18%. More people see Layton as PM material than see Iggy as PM material - so why not!

The federal Liberals are in a tough place on the GST since Ignatieff is already on record promising that he will not do anything to impede it from being implemented.

The Liberal jalopy is now going to be in the repair shop for a good year, i expect that you will see the Libs go back to the old Dion model of abstaining on everything in exchange for nothing until they can't ake it any more.

Based upon what CTV is reporting, we now might not see an election for another year, meaning that Liberals will either book off sick, be out of town, or abstain from voting on monetary bills or matters of confidence.

"Donolo has squelched all election speculation, predicting to Liberals there'll be no national vote for at least seven months and possibly more than a year."

"Donolo has been warning Liberals not to expect a quick turnaround, to keep in mind that they're "playing the long game" and it will take some months to pay off."

Did Joe Clarke think he'd lose on his budget? Did anyone think Trudeau would come back from the scrap heap? Not many. Things can change in politics in a blink of an eye. IF the LPC sees that the HST is greatly unpopular in BC and ON then why not change your position and defeat it? It called political opportunism. It is what Iggy has lacked until now. Sure the NDP has been against the HST from the beginning. Would the Block support the CPC? Maybe if Quebec got some retro-active billions for opting for the HST years ago. Those of you who are NDP fans, I don't see your dreams coming true. The memories of Bob (I'm a Liberal) Rae are still strong in Ontario. Just as BC took decades to elect another NDP government after Barrett was defeated so it is in ON. The NDP will have to moderate its policies much more and get rid of Layton before it has a chance of becoming a threat to the LPC. Layton is one of the most grating politicians to come along in a long, long, time. Worse than David Peterson in Ontario.

Voters also know that the NDP are regional also rans and are no where near contention for even opposition status

This is extremely delusional thinking. The federal Liberals are no little more than a party of Toronto and Vancouver these days with a few hold overs in a few other areas like parts of Montreal and parts of Atlantic Canada. They are far more a regional rump than Reform or even the BQ could claim to be. The fact that the Liberals were total also rans in the most recent by-elections shows that this old saw is little more than a pinning for a past era. We are approaching a tipping point in Canadian politics. If the Liberals under Ignatieff start to lose even a few more points we will start to see a steady and growing slide to the NDP. The only thing the Liberals have to say for themselves these days are that they are not the Conservatives and are they're alternative. If however the polls start to show this as little more than fantasy then voters who actually do want an alternative to the Conservatives will start looking towards the NDP as that alternative. The NDP does not even have to tie the Liberals. All that has to happen is that that gap get close, a few points between the two, and that will start a trickle that will eventual dump the entire Liberal leaky bucket.

Anonymous: I'm not a Liberal. I am a Conservative. My wife who voted NDP for many years thinks the same of Layton as I do. So do the people I associate with. He's a camera seeking, Prima Donna. His whole approach seems scripted. I just strongly dislike him as person and wouldn't shake his hand if he stood next to me in an elevator. I would shake Ed Broadbent's hand or Audry McLaughin's hand but not Laytons'

Anonymous: I'm not Liberal. I am a Conservative. My wife who used to vote NDP shares my view of Layton. So do the people I associate with and they vote for all three parties. Layton is a Prima Donna. I've strongly disliked him since was on Toronto Council.

Dion was less popular than his party in Quebec. Him leaving, which I don't see would hurt the party. BTW there is some question as to authenisicity of Dion's wife post.

The Liberal party has a fortress in Montreal made up allophone and anglophone ridings. I would suspect that if some of those riding were ever to switch they might go CPC rather than NDP. Iggy is bad, but give him some time and a little luck. He could be a Stockwell Day or a Stephen Harper. We don't know yet. I don't see a great hunger in Canada for a socialist alternative. Any realignment of parties on the left almost certainly would have the NDP joining the LPC, not the other way around. The NDP is currently at the upper end of its range. If it breaks into mid twenties I'd have to rethink my position. Otherwise its dreaming from the right and the left. I'm a centre right Conservative. I want a centrist alternative should the CPC stray too far to the right.

DL "If the government falls on the budget then the enabling legislation is void and the NDP can campaign saying that if they win the election, they will not reintroduce it and that they will let the HST die on the vine and then Campbell and McGuinty can go into a corner and sulk!"----------------------------So what provincial programs would the NDP suggest the province cut?

Would they increase transfer payments in lieu of the HST gains and HST signing bonuses?

As they head into taking over from Liberals as the government in waiting they just can't complain and pay for the social programs with magic dust.

The Liberals actually increased their vote share by 3% from '06. The difference being Dion.

"The Liberal party has a fortress in Montreal ... they might go CPC rather than NDP."

Liberals have a fortress on the west end only. But then there's the french ridings and the ever increasing immigrant population.

On the east end the NDP's by-election results show them moving into second place, and Mulcair's results in Outremont show the NDP doing well with immigrants.

Now the NDP have a former liberal MP from Gatineau, Françoise Boivin who lost in '06, ran in '08 for the NDP and increased their vote share by 16 points! And is poised to re-take the seat from the Bloc next election.

The NDP has essentially converted two overwhelmingly Liberal fortress ridings into their turf.

I don't see why it cannot happen elsewhere.

"Iggy is bad, but give him some time and a little luck. He could be a Stockwell Day or a Stephen Harper. We don't know yet."

The majority of Canadians, except for some big city elites, cannot relate to the guy and they don't like him. His numbers are terrible, put a fork in him he's done.

"I don't see a great hunger in Canada for a socialist alternative. Any realignment of parties on the left almost certainly would have the NDP joining the LPC, not the other way around. The NDP is currently at the upper end of its range."

Parties don't have a range. Some are destroyed forever. Some are created and form government quickly. All the forces point to the decline of the LPC and the ascension of the NDP. A lot of people don't see it as a Socialist vote by the way, but as an anti-Harper protest vote.

"I'm a centre right Conservative. I want a centrist alternative should the CPC stray too far to the right."

Is that supposed to mean your analysis is based on what you WANT to happen, as opposed to what you think WILL happen?

"The Liberals actually increased their vote share by 3% from '06. The difference being Dion."

Proof? Or was it that the sponsorship scandal was beginning to fade?

Agree about west end Montreal and the remainder. Mulclair is an anomaly. So is Boivan.

"The majority of Canadians, except for some big city elites, cannot relate to the guy and they don't like him. His numbers are terrible, put a fork in him he's done."

Same thing was said about Harper. He couldn't break into ON. He couldn't win in the East, he couldn't win in Quebec. Harper now is doing all of the above. Iggy is one year in. Don't count your chickens yet. I hope he is done and that Harper gets his majority. I don't believe you can predict what will happens politics a month from now let alone a year from now.

"Parties don't have a range. Some are destroyed forever. Some are created and form government quickly. All the forces point to the decline of the LPC and the ascension of the NDP. A lot of people don't see it as a Socialist vote by the way, but as an anti-Harper protest vote."

Parties do have ranges. The CPC 's upper range is the low forties. Unless the opposition does something incredibly stupid like the coalition, it will be tough for Harper to poll above that. If the LPC joined the NDP or vice versa that would change. The LPC is at the very low end of its range. It's called the core vote. That's where the LPC is now. What evidence do you have of an historic realignment? The NDP formed the official opposition in ON, ahead of the Progressive Conservatives, then formed the government. Did that mean the end of the PC's? Hardly they came back and formed the official opposition and then a two term government. The NDP is back as the third party with little hope of forming a government. I believe that your thesis that parties come and go is based on your Western experience. Indeed in BC, Alberta and now Saskatchewan that has been the case. The PC 's did disappear at the Federal level but so did Reform. The two parties essentially reunited under a slightly different name. Canada has has a long history of Conservative and Liberal parties. Why will this change?

No, my views are based on my forty-five years of observing politics. They may be wrong. Unlike you I attach no certitude to my pronouncements.

I think you would like to see a two party system return to Canada because you believe in such a system the right would almost always triumph. Be careful what you wish for. Canada could not take the ups and downs that BC has gone through as it alternates between right and left.

My point is that every election is unpredictable. No one would have predicted that brand new parties like Reform and the BQ would break the mould of Canadian politics. Back during the long years of Liberal hegemony in Quebec, who would have ever believed that the day would come when the federal Liberals would be almost non-existent in francophone Quebec.

There are other examples of once great parties getting wiped out. The Union Nationale went from being the government in Quebec in 1970 to having zero seats in 1973. The Saskatchewan Liberals went from being in power in 1971 to being wiped off the map in 1978. The federal Tories went from 211 seats in 1984 to having 2 seats in 1993. There is no rule engraved in stone that says that the Liberal party has to exist or be a major party in Canada. When they dropped to 36% in 2004 we were told that was their floor and that they could never go lower, then they dropped to 30% in 2006, then we were told that they could never go any lower than that and book, 26% in 2008. Now people tell us that 26% is the Liberal floor, but then out come polls showing them at 23% or 24%. The Liberals have got to learn that they need to earn peoples votes and they can't just take for granted that people will vote for them out of tribal loyalty.

Liberals once ruled the UK and then got supplanted by Labour. The Christian Democrats of Italy and the LDP of Japan and PRI of Mexico are other parties that are just like the Canadian Liberals in terms of seeing themselves as "natural parties of government" and having this smug sense of entitlement. History shows that once these parties lose power - they fall apart like a house of cards because the only thing that ever held them together was being in power and being able to dole out patronage.

"Liberals once ruled the UK and then got supplanted by Labour. The Christian Democrats of Italy and the LDP of Japan and PRI of Mexico are other parties that are just like the Canadian Liberals in terms of seeing themselves as "natural parties of government" and having this smug sense of entitlement. History shows that once these parties lose power - they fall apart like a house of cards because the only thing that ever held them together was being in power and being able to dole out patronage."

Every party you mention with the exception of the Liberals in Britain is still a mainstream party quite capable of being returned to power. The Liberals in Britain withered away during the Great Depression didn't they.

I'm not saying it is impossible for the LPC to become a third place party. Indeed I can see senarios where that happens but as I said before not J. Layton is replaced as your leader. I do think that it is unlikely that the NDP replaces the LPC as one of the major parties though.

Provincial politics particularly in the west, have seen the rise and fall of political parties. Again Quebec saw dramatic changes that produced a realignment of voting intentions. The rise of the PQ made the Union Nationale redundant. There is a right wing segment of Quebec voters that exists to this day and it was these voters who made up the bilk of Mario Dumont's party.

The Reform party was but a flaming match before it was reabsorbed into the CPC.

What significant event can you see leading to the demise of the LPC? Or do you see it withering away? And what will propel the NDP forward to governing party status?

Look at the years (1963 - 1979) and (1980 - 1984) the CPC spent in the political wilderness yet they maintained their standing as the main alternative to the Liberals. Anything can happen and you are free to hope for NDP ascendancy. You have yet to convince me that it is likely.

Its clear that the Liberals are increasingly being reduced to just being a regional party that represents the Greater Toronto Area and non-francophone Montreal and that about it - plus a few vestigial seats in rural parts of Atlantic Canada. Of course they MIGHT turn it around. Anything is possible.

BTW: The Liberals in the UK didn't fall into third place during the Depression, it actually happened in the 20s largely as a result of a serious of divisive leadership quarrels and not being able to deal with the rise of the Labour party. Read the book The Strange Death of Liberal England and you can learn all about it. Its quite entertaining.

Of course it is possible. Just not likely. Not to be trite but if the Bloc ran candidates outside of Quebec they might elect a few because Duceppe presents very well in the English debates. It's possible that the Bloc if they dropped their separatist policy could also supplant the Liberals.

Sorry but i'm going to have to give you a history lesson. Parties do indeed come and go at the federal level. In fact the following is a list of parties that have once held seats in the HOC. What is their "range"? Fact is the only range that exists is 0 seats or all of 'em. Everything else is just a projection.

Apologies for continuing to correct you, its not exactly good form after a point.

"It's called the core vote. That's where the LPC is now. What evidence do you have of an historic realignment?"

See above list of parties that once held seats and no longer exist. Parties come and go, core votes don't exist. There comes a point where nobody is willing to pay a $10,000 deposit to run as a candidate for a losing party.

"I believe that your thesis that parties come and go is based on your Western experience."

Not all of those parties listed are Western and remember those are only the ones that once held seats, not all the ones that ran in elections and failed to win.

"Canada has has a long history of Conservative and Liberal parties. Why will this change?"

Conservative and Liberal are philosophies that can be represented through any electoral vehicle, it doesn't need to have the name "Liberal Party of Canada" to do so. Heck, one day the NDP might grow into a Liberal party as opposed to a social democratic one.

"No, my views are based on my forty-five years of observing politics. They may be wrong. Unlike you I attach no certitude to my pronouncements."

Again with this bizzare statement. Utterly bizzare! And yet you make no effort to explain it.

We all share our views, our analysis, our projections of what will happen in the future.

Nobody is offering guaranties. Nobody is any more or less certain than anyone else.

"I think you would like to see a two party system return to Canada because you believe in such a system the right would almost always triumph."

This has been discussed by Harper strategists, the belief amongst them is that Australia shows in a polarized left-right environment the right wins 65% of the time.

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