Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Five ACC teams are in the NCAA Tournament this week, based on the RPI.

Duke, despite losing by 27 to Clemson, remains No. 1 (see a flaw yet in the computer programming?) while UNC drops two spots to No. 6 because it beat two average teams at home.

Clemson (8), Wake Forest (14) and Florida State (19) are also enjoying the high life of the RPI.

Virginia Tech (40), Miami (41) and Boston College (49) lead the bubble watch with Maryland (68) squarely on the outside with Virginia (100), N.C. State (115) and Georgia Tech (157) — henceforth referred to as the ACC's "Three Bad Teams."

Before the Noles pop any champagne to celebrate their first NCAA appearance since 1998, take a look at that closing schedule.

Tonight's game against Virginia is the last against the TBT and should push the Noles to 6-3 in the ACC. Then there's the little matter of the other two wins.

That's three nos, three maybes and a probably. Can you see FSU's heart breaking yet? That's one maybe.

As for the bubble teams, the Hokies (40) are 5-3 in the ACC with two more dates with the TBT but home dates with Duke and UNC. Since VT couldn't beat Seton Hall or even anyone of any substance outside the ACC, it needs to upset a Blue to get to 9-7 and make sure the committee can't ignore them.

Miami (41) all but dotted the "i" in its bid until a 16-point meltdown cost the Canes back-to-back wins over Wake and Duke.

The good news for Miami, which is 4-6, is it finishes with TBT in succession. The bad news is it must beat either UNC (on Sunday in a potential letdown game for the Heels), win at FSU (unlikely) or at home to BC (probably).

Then there's BC (49), which has the trump card — a win over UNC — but 8-8 and a win at UNC isn't enough (ask Maryland). The Eagles, 6-4, close with two-thirds of the TBT which should get them to eight wins. But where will the ninth come from?

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About this blog

David Scott has been with the Observer for 28 years and has written about ACC, SEC and other college sports in the Charlotte region. He covers Wake Forest, South Carolina and college soccer for the Observer and (Raleigh) News & Observer.

J.P. Giglio covers the ACC for the News & Observer, where he has worked since 1997, and the Observer.

Andrew Carter covers the North Carolina Tar Heels for the Observer and News & Observer.

Laura Keeley covers the Duke Blue Devils for the Observer and News & Observer. Follow her on Twitter.

Chip Alexander covers the Carolina Hurricanes and college football for the News & Observer, where he has worked since 1979, and the Observer.

Luke DeCock has worked for The News & Observer since 2000. He covered the Carolina Hurricanes and the NHL before becoming a sports columnist for the Observer and News & Observer in August 2008.

Tim Crothers is an author and former senior writer at Sports Illustrated who is joining the sports staff to write a regular column during the rest of the college basketball season.