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Need advice, pls- offense vs defense Topic

I was hoping some of the more experienced SIMBallers could give me some guidance on what a player means to a team when you weigh his offense vs his defense.

For example, I have a '94 Bip Roberts on a team, plugging him in at 3B (out of position, so no stats). Here's his offense and defense at 3B so far for me:

Offense

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

K

SB

CS

Avg.

OBP

Slg.

84

309

51

94

17

3

0

46

24

41

16

3

.304

.357

.379

Defense

--

GP

GS

-Inn.-

E

Throw
Err.

PO

-A-

DP

Good

Poor

Fld %

3B

66

66

595.0

14

--5--

56

141

11

---0---

--10-

.934

Is there any way to figure how much he's costing me defensively, and how would the net effect compare to a lesser offensive player with better defense like, say, 1916 Mike Mowrey, who has A/B- (.965/3.16) defenive rating. Below are his actual production numbers combined with normalized stats, based on 162 games:

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

K

SB

CS

Avg.

OBP

Slg.

--

523

60

132

27

5

1

63

55

73

16

22

.252

.333

.339

I used Mowrey because he is comparable in salary at $3.87m to Bip's $3.92m

Can anyone help quanitfy the differential between Bip's better offensive production offset by atrocious fielding vs Mowrey's weaker offense but very good defense? Much thanks in advance.

IDK if this is an accurate way to judge this subject, but if you double Bip's defensive numbers to a full season, he would have 28 Errors and 20 (-) plays, or 48 outs given away. Mowrey doesn't have a performance history to look at fielding numbers, but a sampling of A/B- thirdbasemen with a similar number of PAs shows that an estimate would be about 10 Errors and a net of a couple of (-) plays, or 12 outs given away. That's a differential 36 more outs given away for Bip. If you flipped those number into offensive terms, and either deducted 36 hits from Bip or added 36 hits to Mowrey, it seems the overall value scale tips toward Mowrey-- that would be about a 70 point swing in Avg., without accounting for any run production.

Off the top of my head, I'd take Mowrey in a second. But let's see the math...

Based on OL performance (.317/.368/.381) Bip projects a defensive adjusted line of .285/.339/.341 at 3B. Your slash line and defense has him worse than OL history, so let's go with my numbers as optimistic.

There is no performance history on Mowrey, but given his era and that that he is right handed, I'm guess he projects to be .232/.313/.323. I know you have gotten better numbers from him, so lets use mine with the caveat that they are pessimistic. We can use '54 Yost's fielding stats as a substitute. By my calculations Mowrey's defensive adjusted line is: .250/.329/.350 at 3B.

Color me surprised-- The numbers are close and I'd consider Roberts over Mowrey. But I think considering
1) My methodology is conservative on defensive adjustment
2) My offensive projection on Bip was optimstic compared to your league results.
3) My projection on Mowrey was pessimistic based on your results.
4) Their projected defensive adjusted OPS is about the same
5) Mowrey will save about $300K worth of pitches over Roberts.
I'd still take Mowrey.

However, for the same money please note there are much better options at 3rd. '95 Boggs, '98 Loretta top my list, but I'm sure there are 50 or more options that better fit the bill.

I've currently got a 67 Pete Rose at 2B and 67 Clete Boyer at SS - both are horrible defensively at those positions - but I feel their offensive presence makes up for it. I'm sure you'll find owners that both agree with me and adamantly disagree - i think in the end though you have to go with what's better for you and what you prefer.

If you're ok with extending a few innings for some extra offense then go with Roberts.

This asks the proverbial question....would you rather have Roberts go 4 for 4 and have 4 balls go between his legs or would you rather have him go 0 for 4 with no miscues. Well.... depends. I look at the 5 teams I have going right now and I come up with an average slugging percentage of .421 for me and .378 against me. Giving my baserunners approximately a 20 percent higher chance of scoring than my opponents. So I would take the first scenario in a second. On my teams I would need a 5 to 4 ratio of miscues to hits/w. if I were doing the calculations. The higher the slugging around guys on base, the more run production. It can be clearly seen on your team rankings page that teams with the same OBP with plus .040 slugging numbers score about 20 percent more per runner. So.......for my teams I'd always take Bip Roberts. Check your slugging ratio that may not be the case for you. zubinsum is right people always underestimate defense...but.....for the life of me I don't understand why people have this love affair with slap hitters and underestimate slugging as well.

I think it depends on the stadium you choose as well. If you're in a +single stadium, having infielders with good range could take some of those away - while also allowing your "poor hitter" to get a few extra hits

In my experience defense is relatively stable, in other words there is less chance of drastic swings in his performance. If a SS is rated A/B you will pretty much see him play consistently at that defensive rating regardless of the variables. If that same SS is a .260 hitter he may hit .280 or .220, (of course with all the variables thrown in, home park, RH or LH batter etc.) For these reasons I normally defer to the better defensive player. And of course using a better bat with terrible defensive ratings and seeing the unearned runs allowed when you scan your box scores may result in the need for strong blood pressure medication.