Forex Outlook on Major Currency Pairs

EURUSD
Last week the pair dropped 200 pips, falling below the support line at 1.1750 and then rose to 1.1800. This week Monday, the pair turned lower during Asian session as it was weighed down by the outcome of the disputed referendum on Catalonia independence in Spain. Also, the pair’s slide at the start of this month could be due to growing prospect of another Fed Hike in December.

Further slide is expected following a bearish confirmation pattern. The pair inability to sustain above 1.1800 handle and further selling pressure could lead to extension of the corrective slide.
So targets for this week are the support lines at 1.1800, 1.1750 and 1.1700.

GBPUSD
The pair was on a bullish trend during the month of September, but a bearish correction last week makes it more likely to be bearish this week on the short term. This pair remained firm below the 1.3400 handle with little trade action in the market. With the growing conviction of a possible Fed rate hike in December, the dollar looks stronger against its major counterparts. The Pound now looks to the release of manufacturing PMI prints from the US and UK for some direction.

On the technical side, a clear break through the mentioned hurdle, currently near the 1.3400 handle, should lift the pair back towards an important hurdle near mid-1.3400s marking 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2790-1.3657 up-move.

USDCHF
The pair is currently showing a bullish outlook and is likely to continue its trend this week as EURUSD falls further. USD should gain strongly around the end of October to overcome any indecision. USDCHF remains below the 0.9772 August high and a close above this price would confirm a base market.

Last week, the AUDUSD fell to 0.7799, pushing the 14 day RSI into a bearish region. This is the lowest the pair has been since the middle of July. The Aussie and dollar were both weighed down by different facts such as the unwinding of save haven longs in Gold and Fed’s Yellen Hawkish comments respectively. Fed’s Yellen comments gave the public a hint that the Fed is no longer depend on data to proceed with the hike.

If the Pair fails to hold above the downward slopping weekly 200-MA, a bearish trend will begin. However, there is hope for a positive turn out as retails sales are seen rebounding 0.3% m/m in August and trade surplus has widen from 460M to 875M.

The USDJPY made a remarkable gain in September, taking over 450 pips. What happens with the U.S economy will largely determine what happens to the pair this month. According to analysts at BBH, “USDJPY has advanced to levels that may prove difficult to breach. The MACDs and Slow Stochastic are getting stretched. Initial support is seen around JPY112.00 and then JPY111.50.” A positive USD will see the pair continue to appreciate, while a weakness in the USD may trigger a reversal up to 200pips.

EURUSD
It is a slow week for the EURUSD, as the Japan holiday keeps the majors on a tight angle and the EURUSD kept at the 1.1730 level. There was no high impact news during the weekend that could move the market. Technically, the pair is stuck at 1.1730 below a bearish 20 SMA and technical indicators shows that it is heading south within negative territories. With more downside expected this week, any rallies will offer good opportunities to place a SELL order at a higher price.

The USDCHF gained about 100 pips last week, but started this week on a calm manner. It is currently losing 0.08%, trading at 0.9790. Technically, the pair seems to be on a strong bullish trend and will maintain that trend this week. It has crossed the resistant level at 0.9800 but closed below it on October 6. The daily RSI indicator remains above the 50 mark, which means the pair is ready for further rise in the short term.

USDJPY
The pair made a remarkable gain and hit a high of 113.25, and easily took out the resistant level at 113.43. However, the move was only for a short term, as the price dropped sharply from the high.
Despite consolidating throughout last week, the outlook remains bullish. The short-term consolidation will end if price breaks the supply level at 114.00 (strengthening the existing bullish bias) or drops below the demand level at 111.00 (threatening the current bias).

GBPUSD
The pair has dropped 470 pips in the last 2 weeks and now moving toward the accumulation territory at 1.3050. This week Monday, the pair entered into a corrective level and is exhibiting more strength. Its RSI is bullish and pointing higher, although the pair continues to face fundamental pressure on the correction. Bearish movement is less likely to continue this week as accumulation territories at 1.3000 (a strong level), 1.2950, and 1.2900 are tested, but a significant rally may occur before the week runs out.

A correction occurred on Friday after price went up. The EUR/USD pair started the week with a soft tone amid political jitters affecting the common currency. A bearish Trend was formed close to the resistant level at 1.1870, which prevented further gains. The recent failure near 1.1880 was important since a crucial bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1870 on the 4-hours chart acted as a barrier for buyers. The most important support is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1669 low to 1.1879 high at 1.1770.

Movement above the resistance line at 1.1900 will strengthen the current bias, while movement below the support lines at 1.1750 and 1.1700 will result in a bearish bias. The outlook for the EURUSD is bearish this week.

The pair gained more than 210 pips last week and there is still a buy signal with a bullish confirmation pattern this week. So, further gains are expected. The GBPUSD has been oscillating between 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3657-1.3027 recent slide. It would be very wise to wait for a solid break through the said levels before entering any position. The bullish trend is likely to continue unless the accumulation territories at 1.3150 and 1.3100 are breached.

Recent outlook for the pair indicates a bullish trend in the long-term and bearish in the short-term. The USDJPY fell to a low of 111.69 on Friday but closed just above the 200-DMA level of 111.80. Today the bulls tried to take control of the pair during the Asian session, but the mood is still bearish.

The China’s production price data has a direct bearing on the inflation expectations in the U.S and other countries that partner with China. For example, it is the rebound in the Chinese PPI inflation in July/August 2016 that got the reflation trade going back in July/August 2016. Trumpflation was merely an icing on the cake. So an uptick in the Chinese PPI could lift the USD/JPY pair, however technical studies indicate a minor blip to 111.00 levels is likely in the short-run.

This pair is unpredictably bullish, as no significant movement was seen last week, apart from a 50 pip drop. It is trading within an uptrend channel at 0.9712, last week’s low. There is a short term buying interest, which means the bullish trend will continue for a short while. Key support can be found at 0.8986, January 2015 low. Technical indicators are still pointing to a long term bullish bias. Movement will be determined by what happens to EURUSD; any sign of weakness may maintain the current bullish outlook, otherwise a steady decline can be expected this week.

Last week, the pair climbed higher to test the supply level at 113.50, but later lost about 120 pips on Thursday. If the price continues on its initial up trend, a bullish bias will be formed soon enough since the demand levels from 131.00 to 132.00 will try to impede any further bearish formations. On the downside, the bias will change if price goes below the demand zone at 131.00.

EURUSD
The common currency slides against its US rival, slowly but steadily ever since the day begun. Heading into the US opening the pair is trading a couple of pips above last week's low of 1.1720, with no major driver leading the way, but demand for the greenback, fueled by hopes that the US tax reform is ready to pass the Congress.
The bearish momentum is strong according to the 4 hours chart, as technical indicators keep heading lower, now nearing oversold readings, as the price extends below its moving averages. The immediate support is 1.1720, followed by an intermediate one at 1.1690, en route to the critical 1.1660 level, where the pair bottomed the last two months. A break below this last seems unlikely short-term, but a daily close below the 1.1700 level will surely grant at least a test of the level.

AUDUSD
The greenback trades higher against all of its major rivals, as hopes that the new administration will soon launch the so-long promised tax reform, kept it on demand. Adding to Aussie's weakness where macroeconomic figures coming from China, as the house price index grew in September by 6.3%, below previous 8.3%.

The pair is bearish according to technical readings in the 4 hours chart, as the price is developing right below the 23.6% retracement of its latest decline, after struggling a couple of times with the 38.2% retracement of the same rally during these last few days, also below a modestly bearish 20 SMA.

USDJPY

The 170 pip climb last week reached the supply level at 113.50. The USD/JPY pair gapped higher at the weekly opening as PM's Abe won the snap election that took place over the weekend. The Japanese currency weakened on speculation that the ongoing easing monetary policy bias will persist for longer, with the pair hitting 114.09 before retreating modestly, to spend the rest of the day a handful of pips below the 114.00 level. A break above the level, not likely for today, should result in an extension towards the 115.00 level during the upcoming sessions.

Consolidation occurred from Monday to Wednesday before a sharp drop on Thursday and Friday that formed a Bearish Confirmation Pattern. However, the start of this week saw the USD bulls take a defensive side as Friday’s upbeat US Q3 GDP growth number was offset by the report that Trump might choose Jerome Powell as next Fed Chair. The FOMC decision and NFP report is coming up this week, which will give fresh impetus to the EURUSD.

Meanwhile, today’s German retail sales and U.S. core PCE price index would be eyed for some short term trading signal.

Also, technical indicators clearly seem to point towards extension of the EURUSD near-term bearish slide towards the key 1.1500 psychological mark, with some intermediate support near 1.1555-50 area. On the flip side, any meaningful recovery might now be capped at an important support break-point, now turned strong resistance near the 1.1665-70 region

GBPUSD
The pair has been able to withstand the pressure of a strong US Q3 GDP numbers and was able to defend 100-day SMA support level. As the bulls begin to take profit in response to Trump’s decision to choose a less hawkish candidate, the GBPUSD started to recover from 3-weeks low. It continued its recovery this week Monday as investors begin to anticipate this week’s BoE, FOMC and NFP data for a fresh impetus.

On the technical side, retracement back below the 1.3100 handle might continue to find strong support at 100-day SMA, currently near the 1.3065 region, which if broken would confirm a bearish break down and accelerate the fall towards the key 1.30 psychological mark.

AUDUSD dropped some pips last week by 1.8 percent due to weaker than expected Aussie inflation data and forced investors to scale back the already low odds of RBA tightening. It is very unlikely that the Central Bank would hike interest rate any time soon.

The AUD/USD is likely to drop below the support offered by the trend line sloping upwards from May low and June low.

Technical studies signal short-term consolidation in the range of 0.7730 to 0.76 before wave of offers push the pair down to 0.7530-0.75 levels.

The pair gained about 200pips last week and breached the resistant level at 1.0000 before closing below it on Friday. The outlook is bullish for this week, but the bullishness will not hold throughout November as EURUSD is expected to rally next month and exert selling pressure on this pair.

Key quotes from Fxstreet: “Keep an eye on the psychologically all-important parity level, for if it were passed, this would open the way towards 1.01-1.0120 (Fibonacci projections) before the resistance levels around 1.0172-1.0193 (Fibonacci projections) and the one at 1.0240 (weekly parabolic).”

The pair made some gains from Monday to Wednesday then declined on Friday. The outlook of the EUR looks bearish and will likely continue till the end of the week. So the support lines at 1.1600, 1.1550 and 1.1500 should be tested, and the resistance lines at 1.1700 and 1.1750 will limit any rallies. However, immediate resistance is now pegged near the 1.1630 region, support-turned-resistance, and any subsequent recovery attempts might now be capped near the 1.1660-65 zones.

USDCHF
The pair had a brief spike down to 0.9948 on Friday but hastily recovered its poise and finished the week at parity, having briefly reached 1.0024.
No further important movement was seen last week, but bullishness was maintained and price closed above the psychological level of 1.0000. Technical indicators are looking positive generally, which makes the outlook for this week bullish. The pair could text the resistant levels at 1.0050, 1.0100 and 1.0150 in the next two weeks.

The pair gained 160 pips last week following Friday’s US jobs report, but ended the week at 1.3075 after testing the distribution territory at 1.3300. There was further price decline, but the accumulation territory at 1.3000 was able to hold. The GBPUSD now has a bearish outlook and in other instances, it is neutral. This week, a break of Fridays low of 1.3038 would see the pair move toward the 1.3023/3000 levels and could head lower to 1.2980.

The pair began the week with a spike to fresh nearly eight-month high at 114.73. Overall, technical indicators remains bullish and favors final break higher and test of next targets at 115.00 (round-figure) and 115.50 (10 Mar high).

Price consolidated last week, but with some bullish effort on Thursday and Friday (in the context of a downtrend). A short-term bullish signal is present, so once the resistance line at 1.1750 is breached, the bias will turn bullish, and with the outlook on EUR pairs being bullish this week, the resistance lines at 1.1800 and 1.1850 may be reached.

GBPUSD

Action is choppy and volatile. The next 2 weeks may see price break the distribution territory at 1.3300 (creating a strong bullish bias); or go below the accumulation territory at 1.3050 (creating a strong bearish bias). Strong directional movements are anticipated on other GBP pairs this week.

USDCHF

The outlook is bullish in the long-term, but becoming bearish in the short-term because price went sideways from Monday to Wednesday then declined on Thursday. Further bearish movement is possible this week, with the next targets being the support levels at 0.9950, 0.9900 and 0.9850, however, movement will be limited as USD will retain some of strength.

EURJPY

A decline tested the demand zone at 131.50 last week, before bouncing 100 pips to test the supply zone at 132.50. Neutrality will remain while price oscillates between the supply zone at 133.00 and the demand zone at 131.50, but a breach will form a directional bias.

GBPJPY

There has been no clear trend for several weeks. October saw a high of 151.38 and a low of 146.93, so the neutral phase will remain until either the supply zone at 151.50 or the demand zone at 146.50 is breached. Meanwhile, strategies that take advantage of short-term swings will thrive.

USDJPY

The view is bullish in the long-term, but bearish in the short-term. After testing the supply level at 114.50, price fell by 100 pips last week and closed below the supply level at 113.50. Should price continue down this week then the demand levels at 113.00 and 112.50 will be reached, but any movement above the supply levels at 114.00, 114.50 and 115.00 will help strengthen the recent bullish bias.

EURJPY
Uncertainties in Germany politics has forced the pair into a bearish formation. Price has been consolidating since the beginning of October (long term view). The pair is no longer on a neutral outlook and investors are beginning to consider a sell position. Short term wise, there is still room for EUR/JPY to fall further.

EURUSD
The Pair gained 200 pips after a bullish signal was generated last week. It tested the resistant line at 1.1850 and then closed at 1.1800 resistant lines on Friday. The EURUSD started this week on a harsh note, as Sunday talks of a coalition Government in German collapsed after the Free Democratic Party pulled out. As a result the EURUSD fell to 1.1722 at the start of today’s Asian session, but was able to regain some of its losses early European session. The signal will remain valid until price falls to 1.6000.

USDJPY
The safe haven yen gained some strength despite the disappointing trade data that was released. So, the pair’s price fall could be as a result of the new tax reform in the US and Markel’s failure to form a new government. This week may see the demand level at 111.50 reached, but there is the possibility of a strong reversal before the end of the week. The fact that the monthly S1 located at the 112.04 level sustained under such heavy pressure indicates an upcoming recovery of the buck, which will tend to reach the 112.62 mark.

Price fell drastically from Monday to Wednesday; it corrected on Thursday and fell again on Friday to close at 0.9883. The correction is likely still in place, and we think the price my hit 0.9963 and fall back to 0.9900.

GBPUSD
The bias is neutral due to a lack of strong direction for the past 4 weeks. After reaching the 1.3250 mark the cable made a sharp turnaround and slipped back to the 1.3180 level. The distribution territory at 1.3300 and accumulation territory at 1.3050 have proven to withstand bearish and bullish pressures recently so the bias will remain until one is breached.
Key Levels: R1- 1.3262, R2- 1.3308, R3- 1.3354. S1- 1.3171, S2- 1.3124, S3- 1.3079

The pair shot up by 210pips last week and closed above the support and resistant line at 1.1900 and 1.1950 respectively. Meanwhile, doubts that the Fed may be able to deliver further interest rate increases, on concerns over stubbornly low inflationary pressure, kept the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and further collaborated to the pair's strong up-move. The outlook on the EURUSD is bullish for December and the resistance level at 1.2000 should be reached next month.

There was further decline on the USDCHF last week, especially Friday when it fell to 0.9785. The pair has dropped about 220 pips this month and 100 of those were lost last week. This has created a confirmation bearish pattern. With the daily momentum indicators pointing increasingly lower, a sustained break of 0.9785/0.9800 would allow a run towards 0.9725/30 and then to 0.9700/05.

Friday’s gain helped the pair reach a price of 1.3359 and this has created a bullish signal. With this ongoing momentum, traders are hoping the pair would push up to the distribution territories at 1.3350, 1.3400, and 1.3450. GBPUSD seems to be unfazed by the ongoing Brexit negotiations that saw UK PM, May in Brussels trying to beat out a deal with Donald Tusk.

The Pair has lost nearly 300p pips since the start of this month as it tested the supply level at 114.50 on November 6. It now targets the supply levels at 111.00, 110.50 and 110.00. Only firm break above 200SMA would sideline bearish threats while return and close above daily cloud top is needed to neutralize and signal higher base formation.

USDJPY
The pair tested the supply level at 114.50 with a drop of about 340 pips in November. This created a bearish confirmation pattern. This week may see an increase in demand which could see the pair trade above 113.10. If this does not happen the technical recovery from 110.84 low could fall apart. The pair is now trading above 112.00 and 0.20 percent increase for the day. There is now focus on US ISM non-manufacturing and a strong employment sub-index, which would help the pair to trade above 113.09. Poor economic data would be a very bad news for the USDJPY since it has already placed one foot backward.

EURUSD
The pair has now moved back closer to previous session's intraday high, around the 1.1870-75 region, as traders now look forward to the final EZ services PMI prints for some short-term trading impetus. Meanwhile, any fresh Brexit headline could lead to some volatility in the EUR/GBP cross and the spillover effect could also influence the pair's movement through the European trading session.
From current levels, any bullish momentum beyond the 1.1900 handle is likely to confront fresh supply near the 1.1920-25 region, marking a short-term descending trend-channel resistance. A sustained move beyond the mentioned hurdle would indicate a bullish break and pave the way for an extension of the pair's upward trajectory.

An uptrend from Monday to Wednesday (in the context of a downtrend) briefly breached the 0.9850 level before closing below it. No meaningful rallies will occur while EURUSD is able to showcase its strength, so the rally simply proved a good opportunity to sell short at a better price before price plummeted on Friday and put more emphasis on the ongoing bearish outlook. Further bearish movement is expected this week.

GBPUSD
The GBPUSD has been bullish since November 14 even though it moved slowly. It grabbed over 400 pips in that month and tested the distribution level at 1.3549. On Monday, the pair had a rather volatile session. The failed attempt to reach a Brexit deal between the UK and EU triggered a short selloff in the GBP, which dragged the pair back to the 1.3400 handle. Investors now look forward to the UK service PMI report and US ISM non-manufacturing PMIs prints for some fresh impetus.

Last week saw the pair lose more ground leaving risk of more declines on the table. It moved briefly below the support line at 1.1750 and then closed above it on Friday. The EURUSD might be weaker this week with resistant level at 1.1850, where a cut through it will open the door for more upside toward 1.1900 levels. Support lies at the 1.1750 level and any break below it will see it move to 1.1700 level. The support lines at 1.1700 and 1.1650 may be tested this week subject to strong selling pressure.

Last week Friday, the pair reached an early European high at 1.3529 in reaction to the news of a Brexit breakthrough. This surge was followed with a heavy sell as traders took profit causing the pair to fall to a low of 1.3353. After the NFP report was released, the pair moved up to 1.3432 and 1.3399. The bullish bias look very week due to the events that occurred last week.

Movement below the accumulation territory at 1.3250 will result in a bearish signal being generated, but movement above the distribution territory at 1.3550 will strengthen the recent bullish signal, which we are likely to see this week.

The US wage data may have been disappointing, but the pair hit a 4 week high in early Asia session on Friday. This move could also have been inspired by the news of a Brexit breakthrough. The pair rose to 113.63 November 14 high. Friday’s released data showed that the NFP added 228,000 jobs in November, while hourly wage rose 2.5%.

There is speculation that the BOJ is likely to cut its ETF purchases soon, and this could strengthen the Yen. This week, the pair remains neutral, but a test of 113.80 would not be surprising. The supply levels at 114.00 and 114.50 are also targeted.

Last week Friday, the pair stalled its bullish trajectory near the 0.9975/80 region and lost some of its gains after a mixed US jobs data. Traders were forced to take some profits off the table and this added more pressure on the pair to slow down. It moved the resistance level at 0.9950 last week and then closing below it on Friday. The pair looks strong and set to continue its positive run this week. The resistance levels at 1.0000 and 1.0050 may be tested this week, but a fall remains highly likely due to possible strength in CHF

The pair is still very weak despite the latest Brexit news that a next phase will commence. However, this can only happen as from march next year, sparking a selling pressure on the pair. Also an attempted uptick in the dollar made the GBPUSD register some losses.

Technically, the pair continues to find strong buying interest near the 1.3300 handle and hence, traders are likely to wait for a decisive break through the mentioned support before positioning for any subsequent weakness. Movement towards the accumulation territories at 1.3300 and 1.3250 will help strengthen that view, but movement above the distribution territories at 1.3450 and 1.3500 will pull it back.

EURUSD
The pair ended the week with minor losses after jumping beyond the 1.1800 on Friday. This week, it managed to catch some fresh bids and bounced back above mid-1.1700s. The USD faces pressure from the news of a possible Government shut down if the spending limit is now extended beyond December 22. This has created an opportunity for the support lines at 1.1700 and 1.1650 to be tested this week. Selling pressure is possible throughout December.

Traders now look forward to the final Euro-zone CPI print, due for release during European trading session, for some fresh impetus ahead of this week's important US macro data - final GDP growth figures, durable goods orders and core PCE price index

USDJPY
Last week the Pair made unpredictable movements, but started to move down on Wednesday before closing above the demand level at 112.50. The USJPY seems to be on a neutral ground which can only end once the price breaches either the demand level at 111.50 or the support level at 112.50. This might not occur this month.

GBPJPYing at this pair from a short term view, it looks bearish, while on the long term it is neutral. The pair has lost more than 200 pips so far. Demand levels at 149.00 and 148.50 are now being targeted. The GBPJPY could reach these targets this week.

USDJPY displayed shows little concern over the Bank of Japan BoJ’s stance on interest rates. The BoJ kept interest rates steady, thereby maintaining status-quo. Yen in question moved to the 133.20 level, but later turned higher for the third consecutive session and surged back above mid-11300s in the final session.

However, the USDJPY draws some fresh buying interest from the BOJ Governor’s remark to consider additional easing measures on inflation maintenance toward 2 percent target. The USD on the other hand did not put up much of a fight to stall the pair’s upward trajectory despite subdued US dollar price action.

Traders will now look up to the US GDP growth figures for the third quarter and the Philly Fed Manufacturing index to be released later today.

Last week the Euro suffered from the disappointing EU CPI which supports the view that markets remain under positioned long term relative to the markets overwhelming bullish sentiment. The EURUSD is eyeing the 1.2000 level and a breakthrough could trigger a correction toward 1.1900. The overweight short-term speculators and fast money positioning suggests the market could be susceptible to an early 2018 squeeze lower.

Despite Friday's mixed results from the US monthly jobs report, a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, amid growing expectations for a March Fed rate hike move, underpinned the greenback demand and contributed towards capping the pair below the 1.3600 handle.

Traders now look forward to the release of UK Halifax HPI data and Fedspeak for some fresh trading impetus. The key focus, however, would be on this week's US inflation figures, which along with other important macro releases would help investors determine the pair's next leg of directional move

USDJPY
On Friday the pair reached 113.30 and then consolidated above 113.00 for the balance of the session.
A short-term “buy” signal was generated on Friday that makes further gains possible. The chart remains flat on the long term, so there might be further sideways trade within the broad 112/114 range, which might be reached this week. However, there exists the risk of a large pullback on JPY pairs.

The pair broke above the 153 handle on Friday followed by a Strong bullish Activity last week. The 153 level has been an important price for the pair. Since this level was previously breached, although pulled back to 152, the market could see more upside movement above 153. We could also expect to see a bearish correction if the price pushes higher than 163.

After a bearish start to last week, a climb of 270 pips tested the resistance line at 1.2200. That resistance line remains under siege with price possibly gaining another 150 pips this week as the outlook on EUR pairs is generally bullish.

The protracted consolidation finally ended with the bullish breakout last week where price climbed 200 pips on Friday alone. That move is expected to continue this week so targets are the distribution territories at 1.3750 and 1.3800.

The bullish efforts from Monday to Wednesday almost reached the resistance level at 0.9850 before dropping 170 pips to close below the resistance level at 0.9700 on Friday and generate a bearish signal. The outlook is bearish this week due to CHF strength and a strong EURUSD.

There was a 214 pip slide last week after several unsuccessful attempts to break the demand level at 111.00. With the bearish outlook and a Bearish Confirmation Pattern present, further decline is probable - likely targets being the demand levels at 110.50, 110.00, and 109.50.

A decline of 310 pips from Monday to Wednesday consolidated on Thursday and bounced upwards on Friday. The general bias is bullish, although the pullback that occurred the first few days of last week appears to be offering a good opportunity to buy long at better prices, thus allowing the supply zones at 152.50, 153,00 and 153.50 to be targeted this week.

EURUSD
The pair made a limited run toward higher prices last week. Last week’s consolidation kept movement between the resistance line at 1.2300, whereby a cut through would expose the 1.2400 level. Support line lies at 1.2200 and a lower move would open door to the 1.2050 level. The EURUSD is bullish and pointing higher this week.

AUDUSD is still trading at close to 0.8000, after reaching a Friday high of 0.8038 but then turning lower, under pressure from sales of AUDJPY. A late US selloff saw it close on session lows at 0.7985. The longer term uptrend remains firmly intact, although the daily charts warn of a correction, with the appearance of some bearish divergence and a long upper wick forming on the daily candle. It is a fairly light data calendar this week and a long w/e in Australia on Friday so external factors will drive price action. Right now a neutral stance seems best.

The Pair had a good time last week as it hit a new post Brexit high at 1.3944, but fell shortly after to 1.3838. Sterling has now climbed to about 400pips since January 11. A very strong selling pressure would see the pair overturn its bullish bias. The 4 hour momentum indicators are now turning lower, while the longer term charts still generally look positive, but Cable remains volatile so caution is warranted. Buying dips seems to be the theme still, but, with a relatively tight SL placed back below 1.3800.

The pair saw a shallow rally last week, and this gave traders a good opportunity to go short. It is very possible that the pair will decline further this week due to the US Government shutdown, which will affect the USD negatively. Therefore, the demand levels at 110.50, 110.00 and 109.50 may be reached.