SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN – On Wednesday. April 4 Crown Weather released its preliminary forecast for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It calls for 14 named storm, seven (7) of those storms becoming Hurricanes and three (3) of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

“I am expecting that the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be about average in terms of activity. One reason for this is due to the fact that we are slowly transitioning from La Nina conditions into either neutral ENSO conditions or a weak El Niño during this summer into this autumn.

“It needs to be pointed out that the forecast for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season is a difficult one due to the fact that it is uncertain whether we will see El Nino conditions form or whether we will see a repeat of last year where we had a failed El Nino and instead we transitioned back into La Nina conditions.

“If the forecasts for El Nino are incorrect and we end up with another La Nina, then we could see a much more active hurricane season than what we are forecasting right now.

“On the other hand, should a full-fledged El Nino develop during the summer, then we could see a very inactive hurricane season with numbers that are much lower than what we are forecasting right now.

“In addition, I am expecting the formation of at least one tropical storm in the western Atlantic during either May or early June. In addition, I also think that we could start out “quick” with tropical storm/hurricane formation from May to August, but then slowdown in activity during September with the hurricane season potentially ending early in October as El Nino strengthens and attempts to make the Atlantic increasingly more unfavorable for development,” Crown Weather said on Wednesday.