Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (44)

While the popularity of Fateh and President Abbas drops, and while Hamas' popularity improves, popular criticism of crackdown on freedoms increases and opposition to a two-state solution rises

21-23 June 2012

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 21-23 June 2012. This poll was conducted during a military escalation and exchange of rocket fire in the Gaza Strip. The period preceding the poll witnessed the ending of the prisoners' hunger strike and the announcement of the elementary results of the Egyptian presidential elections with reports of a victory of the Muslim Brotherhood candidate MohammadMorsi. The weeks before the conduct of the poll witnessed the signing of an agreement between Fateh and Hamas that allowed the Central Election Commission to begin voter registration in the Gaza Strip and the beginning of consultation to form a reconciliation agreement. It also witnessed the arrest of journalists and the blocking of internet sites by the PA in the West Bank. The journalists were released and sites opened before the conduct of the poll. Finally, this period witnessed the formation of a new government in the West Bank headed by Salam Fayyad. This press release covers Palestinian attitudes regarding the arrest of journalists and blocking of internet sites, reconciliation, prisoners' hunger strike, the performance of the governments of Salam Fayyad and Ismail Haniyeh, the internal balance of power between Fateh and Hamas, and the views of the public on the most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems Palestinians confront today. Total size of the sample is 1200 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

The second quarter of 2012 shows clear improvement in the standing and popularity of Hamas and Ismail Haniyeh, especially in the Gaza Strip, and a decline in the popularity of Fateh and President Abbas. The increased Hamas popularity might be due to the fact that it has allowed the Palestinian election commission to begin voter registration in the Gaza Strip and might reflect optimism about future improvement in the conditions of the Gaza Strip in the aftermath of the victory of the Muslim Brotherhood candidate in the Egyptian presidential elections. The decline in the popularity of Fateh and president Abbas comes in light of widespread popular anger with the PA for the arrest of journalists and the blocking of internet sites. It might also reflect public perception of a reluctance on the part of Abbas to form a reconciliation government despite Hamas' decision to allow the election commission to operate in the Gaza Strip. Furthermore, it is possible that Abbas' reluctance to go to the UN or take the initiative to break the deadlock in the relationship with Israel might in part explain the increase in public dissatisfaction with his performance and the decrease in the percentage of votes he might receive in a new presidential elections. Findings also indicate that the overwhelming majority of the public opposes the arrest of journalists or the blocking of internet sites and view such measures as harming the Palestinian cause in international public opinion. A majority is also pessimistic about the chances to implement the reconciliation agreement and a very small minority is optimistic about the chances of forming a reconciliation government in days or weeks or organizing parliamentary and presidential elections before the end of the year.

Parallel to the decline in the popularity of president Abbas and Fateh, findings show a significant decline in the support for a two-state solution. Findings also show continued majority belief that this solution is no longer practical due to settlement expansion while more than two thirds believe that the chances for establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel in the next five years is slim or non-existent. Despite all this, a majority of about two-thirds opposes a one-state solution. Moreover, a clear majority opposes a unilateral Israeli plan aimed at strengthening the two-state dynamics through cessation of settlement construction in those areas to the east of the separation wall and encouraging settlers in those settlements to the East of the wall to evacuate those settlements.

(1) Arrest of Journalists and Blocking of Internet Sites:

88% oppose and 7% support the arrest of journalists and the blocking of internet sites for the views they express or articles they publish

86% believe that the PA's arrest of journalists and the blocking of websites harm the Palestinian cause

71% indicate that they felt angry when hearing about the PA's arrest of journalists and the blocking of internet sites

67% say that these days they feel they are living in a non democratic political system that crack down on freedoms

We asked the public about its views regarding the arrest of journalists and the blocking of internet sites by the PA, incidents that took place during the weeks that preceded the conduct of the poll: 88% oppose and 7% support the arrest of the journalists and the blocking of sites for the views or articles they publish or post. Moreover, 86% believe such measures as those taken by the PA in the West Bank in arresting journalists or blocking internet sites cause harm to the Palestinian cause in international public opinion. When asked how they felt when they first heard about these measures, 71% said they felt angry and 21% said they felt indifferent and 3% said they felt satisfied. Feeling of anger rises in the West Bank (75%) compared to the Gaza Strip (61%), in cities (73%) compared to refugee camps (55%), among women (75%) compared to men (66%), among those with BA degree (78%) compared to illiterates (59%), among those between the ages of 40 and 50 years old (78%) compared to those whose age is between 18 and 28 (63%), and among supporter of Hamas (83%) compared to supporters of Fateh (64%).

Findings also show that 67% feel as if they are living in an undemocratic system that cracks down on freedoms while only 29% say they feel they live in a democratic system that protects freedoms. 4% say they have no opinion. It is interesting to note that the feeling that one lives in an undemocratic system that cracks down on freedoms is higher in the West Bank (72%) than in the Gaza Strip (58%) despite the fact that a majority in both areas feel that it lives in such a system. The feeling of living in an undemocratic system rises also among non refugees (70%) compared to refugees (63%), among holders of BA degree (66%) compared to illiterates (51%), among those who do not intend to participate in future elections (76%) and those who do not know to whom they intend to vote (70%) and those who intend to vote for third parties, other than Fateh and Hamas, (69%) compared to those who intend to vote for Fateh and Hamas (59% and 61% respectively). When we separate Gaza findings from those of the West Bank, the feeling of living in an undemocratic system increases in the West Bank among those who do not intend to participate in new elections (76%) and among supporters of Hamas (45%) compared to supporters of Fateh (37%). In the Gaza Strip, feeling of living in an undemocratic system rises among supporters of Fateh (73%) and those who will not participate in new elections (51%) compared to supporters of Hamas (20%).

(2) Reconciliation:

71% are dissatisfied with the fact that no parliamentary or presidential elections took place last may

Only 35% believe that Fateh and Hamas will succeed in implementing the reconciliation agreement and 57% believe they will not succeed

Only 12% believe that a reconciliation government will be formed in the coming days or weeks and 47% believe one will eventually be formed but after a long time

Only 12% believe that presidential and parliamentary elections might take place in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip during 2012 and 55% believe it might take place after a year or two or after several years

71% say they are dissatisfied with the fact that presidential and parliamentary elections did not take place last May as originally planned in the reconciliation agreement reached between Fateh and Hamas. 22% say they are satisfied that the elections did not take place. Findings show that 60% blame Fateh and Hamas together for the failure to hold elections last May while 13% blame Hamas, 10% blame Fateh, and 7% blame other parties. In light of the start of voter registration by the Central Election Commission in the Gaza Strip and the start of consultation to form a reconciliation government, only 35% believe that Fateh and Hamas will succeed in implementing the reconciliation agreement and reunify the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 57% say they will not succeed. In fact, 32% believe no reconciliation government will ever be formed, 47% believe it will be formed but only after a long time, and only 12% believe it will be formed in the next days or weeks. Similarly, 20% expect that no election will ever be organized jointly in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in the future while 24% believe it will be organized after many years, 31% say it will be organized after one or two years, and 12% say it might be organized this year.

(3) Domestic Conditions:

Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip stands today at 22% and in the West Bank at 30%

Belief that there is corruption in public institutions in the Gaza Strip stands at 57% and in the PA institutions in the West Bank at 71%

34% say there is press freedom in the Gaza Strip and 21% say there is press freedom in the West Bank

25% say people in the Gaza Strip can these days criticize the authorities without fear and 29% say people in the West Bank can criticize the PA without fear

Perception of safety and security in the West Bank stands at 55% and in the Gaza Strip at 58%

Positive evaluation of the performance of Ismail Haniyeh's government stands at 38% and Fayyad's at 36%

Level of satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas stands at 49%

Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip rises to 22% while 56% say conditions are bad or very bad. In our last poll, three months ago, only 13% said conditions in the Gaza Strip were good or very good and 70% said conditions were bad or very bad. Positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank remains stable at 30% while 37% say conditions are bad or very bad. Positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank stood at 31% three months ago.

71% say there is corruption in the PA institutions in the West Bank while only 57% say there is corruption in the institutions of the dismissed government in the Gaza Strip. Moreover, 21% say there is, and 41% say there is to some extent, press freedom in the West Bank while 34% say there is no press freedom in the West Bank. By contrast, 17% say there is, and 34% say there is to some extent, press freedom in the Gaza Strip while 38% say there is no press freedom in the Gaza Strip. Similarly, 29% of the Palestinian public say people in the West Bank can criticize the authority in the West Bank without fear. By contrast, 25% of the public say people in the Gaza Strip can criticize the authorities in Gaza without fear.

Perception of safety and security in the West Bank reaches 55% and in the Gaza Strip 58%. Three months ago these percentages stood at 47% in the Gaza Strip and 51% in the West Bank. Positive evaluation of the performance of the Haniyeh government stands today at 38% and positive evaluation of the performance of the Fayyad government stands at 36%. These figures are similar to those we obtained three months ago. Findings show that the percentage of Gazans who say they seek immigration to other countries stands at 42%; in the West Bank, the percentage stands at 27%. Three months ago, these figures stood at 45% and 22% respectively.

Percentage of satisfaction with the performance of President Abbas stands at 49% while 49% say they are dissatisfied with his performance. Three months ago, satisfaction with Abbas stood at 55% and dissatisfaction at 43%. Satisfaction with the president's performance in this poll stands at 37% in the Gaza Strip and 56% in the West Bank. In our previous poll, three months ago, satisfaction with Abbas stood at 60% in the West Bank and 48% in the Gaza Strip. The decline in the level of satisfaction with the president's performance might be due to public belief that conditions of freedoms have worsened, the lack of progress in the reconciliation process, and the lack of movement on the Palestinian UN statehood bid.

(4) Presidency and Legislative Elections:

In a new presidential election, Abbas receives 49% and Haniyeh 44% and if the contest is between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former receives 60% and the latter 34%. If the competition was between all three, Barghouti receives 37%, Haniyeh 33%, and Abbas 25%.

In a new parliamentary election, Hamas receives 29%, Fateh 40%, and all third parties combined 12%, and 19% have not decided yet to whom they will vote

With a vote of 53%, Marwan Barghouti is the most preferred candidate for Fateh in a presidential elections in which Abbas does not run, and Saeb Erikat is the most favored, by 17%, if Abbas and Barghouti do not run

If new presidential elections are held today, and only two were nominated, Abbas would receive the vote of 49% and Haniyeh 44% of the vote of those participating. The rate of participation in such election would reach 65%. Three months ago, Abbas received the support of 54% and Haniyeh 42%. In the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 49% and Haniyeh 45% and in the West Bank Abbas receives 50% and Haniyeh 43%. If the presidential elections were between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 60% and the latter would receive 34% of the participants’ votes. The rate of participation in this case would reach 72%. If the presidential elections were between three: Mahmud Abbas,Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Barghouti receives the highest percentage (37%) followed by Haniyeh (33%), and Abbas (25%). The rate of participation in this case would reach 75%. This is the first time that we have asked about possible presidential elections with these three candidates. Support for Barghouti is equal in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip (37% and 38% respectively), but support for Haniyeh is slightly higher in the Gaza Strip compared to the West Bank (35% and 32% respectively), and support for Abbas is slightly higher in the West Bank compared to the Gaza Strip (26% and 22% respectively). Support for Barghouti is higher among men (41%) compared to women (34%) while support for Haniyeh is higher among women (40%) compared to men (26%), and support for Abbas is higher among men (28%) compared to women (21%). Support for Barghouti is also higher among the youth, between the ages of 18 and 28 years old (40%) compared to those over 50 years of age (33%) while support for Haniyeh is higher among those over 50 years of age (38%) compared to those between 18 and 28 years of age (30%).

If new legislative elections are held today with the participation of all factions, 70% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 29% say they would vote for Hamas and 40% say they would vote for Fateh, 12% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 19% are undecided. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands in this poll at 31% and in the West Bank at 27%. Vote for Fateh in the Gaza Strip stands in this poll at 39% and in the West Bank at 41%. These results indicate a decline in Fateh's popularity in the Gaza Strip by seven percentage points and an increase in the popularity of Hamas in the Gaza Strip by 4 percentage points. When we asked the public about its expectations regarding the outcome of the parliamentary and presidential elections, 41% said they expect Fateh to win, 23% expected Hamas to win, 20% expected other parties to win, and 16% said they do not know.

In a question about the favored Fateh candidate to replace Abbas as a president, assuming Abbas would not run, a majority of 53% selectedMarwan Barghouti, followed by Saeb Erekat and Abu Mahir Ghnaim (3% each). Mahmoud Aloul, Nasir al Qidwa, and Ahmad Qurie’ received 2% each, Azzam al Ahmad, Jibril al Rojoub, and Salim al Za'noun received 1% each. When we asked the public to select a candidate from a list that did not include Marwan Barghouti, a large part of the vote went to Saeb Erikat (17%) followed by Abu Mahir Ghnaim (9%), Mahmud alAloul and Nasir al Qidwa (8% each), Azzam al Ahmad (5%), Jibril al Rojoub and Ahmad Qurie' (4%), and finally Salim al Za'noun (2%).

(5) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:

47% select ending occupation and building a Palestinian state based on the 1967 lines with East Jerusalem as a capital is the most vital national priority and 30% say the most vital priority is to obtain the right of return

Selected by 27%, continued occupation and settlement activities is the most serious problem confronting Palestinians today followed by the spread of poverty and unemployment, selected by 26%, and the absence of national unity, selected by 24%

47% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital. By contrast, 30% believe the first most vital goal should be to obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages, 15% believe that it should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings, and 8% believe that the first and most vital goal should be to establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians.

The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today is the continuation of occupation and settlement activities in the eyes of 27% of the public while 26% believe the most serious problem is the spread of poverty and unemployment, 24% say it is the absence of national unity due to the West Bank-Gaza Strip split, 15% believe the most serious problem is corruption in some public institutions, and 8% believe it is the siege and the closure of the Gaza border crossings.

(6) The Peace Process:

49% support and 49% oppose the two-state solution and 55% believe such a solution is no longer practical due to continued settlement expansion. But 65% oppose a one-state solution.

35% believe that an Israeli unilateral plan to stop settlement construction in those settlements located to the east of the separation wall and in Palestinian neighborhoods in East Jerusalem and to help settlers relocate outside those settlements is good for Palestinians and 59% believe it is bad for them. 69% believe that the chances for implementing this plan by the Netanyahu government is slim to non-existent.

51% support the Saudi peace initiative and 45% oppose it

43% support and 55% oppose recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people after reaching a peace agreement that resolves all issues of the conflict.

Findings show a significant decline in the level of support for the two-state solution from 57% in March 2010 to 49% in this poll. Opposition to this solution stands at 49% compared to 41% in the previous poll. Findings also show that a majority of 55% believes that the two-state solution is no longer practical due to expanded settlement construction while only 39% believe the two state solution remains viable because settlements can be dismantled or evacuated once an agreement is reached. Despite the belief of the majority that the two-state solution is no longer practical, only 31% support the alternative solution known as the one-state solution, one in which Palestinians and Jews enjoy equality. Opposition to the one-state solution reaches 65% in this poll.

Opposition to the two-state solution increases in the Gaza Strip (54%) compared to the West Bank (46%), among those who oppose the peace process (62%) compared to those who support the peace process (43%), among refugees (53%) compared to non refugees (46%), among holders of BA degree (56%) compared to illiterates (33%), among students (61%) compared to laborers, merchants, and retirees (40%, 40%, and 20% respectively), among those who work in the public sector (54%) compared to those who work in the private sector (42%), among those whose age is between 18 and 28 years (58%) compared to those whose age is over 50 years (34%), among supporters of Hamas and those who do not wish to participate in future elections (62% and 56% respectively) compared to supporters of Fateh, those who would vote for third parties and those who have not decided yet to whom they will vote (35%, 41%, and 46% respectively).

Support for the one-state solution is higher in the West Bank (36%) compared to the Gaza Strip (23%), in refugee camps (35%) compared to residents of cities (31%), among those who define themselves as somewhat religious (33%) compared to those who define themselves as religious (29%), among supporters of the peace process (34%) compared to those who oppose the peace process (23%), and among those who say they will not participate in new elections (36%) and supporters of Fateh (33%) compared to supporters of Hamas (26%).

We asked the public about its views regarding an Israeli plan calling for unilateral steps that would stop construction in those settlements located to the east of the separation wall and in Arab neighborhoods in East Jerusalem and encouraging settlers to evacuate those settlements while keeping the Israeli army in those areas. Findings show that 59% view the plan as bad for Palestinians while 35% view it as good for Palestinians. Yet, a big majority (70%) believe the chances that the Netanyahu government will implement such a plan are slim or non-existent. Perception that the plan is good for Palestinians increases in cities and villages (36% each) compared to refugee camps (27%), among supporters of the peace process (41%) compared to those who oppose the peace process (27%), among holders of BA degree (35%) compared to illiterates (27%), among those whose age is between 18 and 28 years (37%) compared those whose age is over 50 years (26%), among those who use the internet on daily basis (39%) compared to those who use the internet once a month (28%), and among supporters of Fateh (41%) compared to supporters of Hamas (25%).

Findings show that a majority of 51% supports and 45% oppose the Arab (or Saudi) peace initiative which calls for Arab recognition of Israel and for normalization of relations with it in return for its withdrawal from the occupied territories and the establishment of a Palestinian state. On the other hand, 55% oppose and 43% support recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people after all issues of the conflict have been resolved. Findings also show that 68% believe that the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the next five years to be slim to non-existent while 30% believe the chances to be medium or high. A majority of 54% believe that the inclusion of Kadima in the coalition government of Netanyahu means the government will be less willing to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians while only 12% believe that the government will be more willing to do so. 26% believe that the addition of Kadima to Netanyahu government will have no impact on its peace policies.

Findings also show that about three quarters (74%) of the Palestinian public are worried that they or members of their family will be hurt by Israelis or that their land will be confiscated or home demolished. Moreover, the level of perceived threat regarding the aspirations of Israel in the long run is very high. 62% of Palestinians think that Israel’s long term goals is to extend its borders to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel its Arab citizens, and 19% think the goal is to annex the West Bank while denying political rights to the Palestinians. Only 17% think Israel’s aspiration in the long run is to withdraw from part or all of the territories occupied in 1967.

(7) Palestinian Options in the confrontation with Israeli occupation:

Largest percentage (73%) supports going to the UN in order to obtain an international recognition of the Palestinian state and 58% support a unilateral declaration of statehood.

57% support a non violent popular resistance and only 37% support an armed intifada.

39% support and 55% oppose the dissolution of the PA.

Half of the public is satisfied and the other half is dissatisfied with the performance of the PA leadership in its efforts to obtain an international recognition of Palestinian statehood.

56% believe that the Palestinian leadership is still trying to obtain an international recognition of Palestinian statehood and 39% believe that the leadership has abandoned that goal.

We asked the public about its views regarding six options that Palestinians have in their relations with Israel in the absence of negotiations. Findings show that the public supports three of these options and opposes the other three. The highest support (73%) goes to the option of turning to the UN for international recognition of Palestinian statehood followed by a unilateral declaration of statehood (58%), and a non violent popular resistance (57%). By contrast, only 37% supported going back to an armed intifada, 39% supported dissolving the PA, and 26% supported abandoning the two-state solution in favor of a one-state solution.

When asked about the performance of the Palestinian leadership in its efforts to obtain an international recognition of Palestinian statehood, half of the public indicated satisfaction with these efforts while the other half indicated dissatisfaction. When asked whether it thought the PA leadership has abandoned such efforts or is still seeking international recognition of Palestinian statehood, a majority of 56% indicated that it believes that the PA is still continuing its efforts while 39% indicated that it has abandoned them. Dissatisfaction with the performance of the leadership in its efforts to obtain international recognition of Palestinian statehood increases among those who oppose the peace process (61%) compared to those who support the peace process (41%), among holders of BA degree (55%) compared to illiterates (37%), among professionals (67%) and merchants (60%) compared to employees (50%) students (47%) housewives (45%), and laborers (37%), among those who work in the private sector (54%) compared to those who work in the public sector (45%), and among supporters of Hamas (60%) and those who do not intend to participate in future elections (55%) compared to supporters of Fateh (33%). Similarly, belief that the PA leadership is continuing its efforts to obtain international recognition of Palestinian statehood increases among supporters of the peace process (63%) compared to those who oppose the peace process (40%), among Fateh supporters (73%) compared to Hamas supporters (46%) and those who will not participate in new elections (47%).

59% are satisfied and 40% dissatisfied with the size of public participation in solidarity activities with the prisoners in Israeli jails during their hunger strike and 42% believe conditions of prison will improve after the strike,

72% see benefits in Arab and Muslim visits to Jerusalem these days

49% believe that Arab revolutions will have a positive impact on the Palestinian cause in the next year or two.

27% say that they would vote for a Salafi party and 63% say they would not vote for such a party.

40% believe that the results of the Egyptian presidential elections, and the victory of Mohammad Morsi, will serve the Palestinian cause while 33% believe it will not.

Prisoners' Hunger Strike: Findings show that 59% are satisfied and 40% are dissatisfied with the size of public participation in solidarity activities with the prisoners in Israeli jails during their hunger strike. When asked if they personally participated in solidarity activities, 35% said yes and 65% said no. When asked about their expectations, now after the hunger strike, regarding the future conditions of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, 42% said conditions of Palestinian prisoners will improve, 15% said conditions will worsen, and 41% said conditions will not change.

Visiting Jerusalem: In light of the recent talk about the benefits or harm that might be generated by visits to Jerusalem by Arabs and Muslims, we asked the public what it thought: 72% indicated that they believe it will benefit the Palestinians while 25% indicated the opposite.

Arab Spring: Findings show that half of the public (49%) believes that Arab revolutions will have a positive impact on the Palestinian cause in the next year or two and 23% believe they will have a negative impact while 25% say they will have no impact, positive or negative.

A Salafi Party in Palestine: Given the surprising size of the electoral victory of the Salfists in the Egyptian elections, with their Nour party receiving about 25% of the popular vote, we asked the Palestinian public about its possible electoral behavior if a Salafi party were to be established in Palestine: 27% said that it would vote for such a party if established and 63% said they would not vote for one. Willingness to vote for a Salafi party increases in the Gaza Strip (36%) compared to the West Bank (22%), in cities (29%) compared to refugee camps (19%), among women (30%) compared to men (24%), among the religious (35%) compared to the somewhat religious (20%), among refugees (32%), compared to non refugees (22%), among those who use the internet only once a month (34%) compared to those who use it every day (26%), and among Hamas supporters (46%) compared to supporters of Fateh (20%).

Egyptian elections: After the initial announcement of the Egyptian election results, 40% believe that these results will serve the Palestinian cause while 33% believe it will not. 22% said they do not know. When asked to tell us who they think won the Egyptian elections, 64% said it was the Muslim Brothers' candidate Mohammad Morsi while 20% thought it was General Shafiq and 15% said they did not know...Full Report