Saturday, July 23, 2011

Edmonton Oilers: Big Moves Foreseen

The Oilers have an excellent developing core of young players with the likes of wingers Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi and of course the most recent addition center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Nevertheless, the Oilers are rather thin down the middle. The signing of Eric Belanger was certainly a step in the right direction. Acquiring a long-term two-way 2C with some size is still a question mark though. Edmonton will likely have to make significant moves if they are to fill that void. But more on that later though.

Another big weakness of this squad last season, was the propensity to give the puck away at an alarming rate. In addition to the team being razor thin on defense (compounded by key loss early of blueliner Ryan Whitney), the Oilers were a very young team last year. So it was no surprise that EDM was one of the worst defensive teams in the league. It should be noted though, some of its worst perpetrators were those that have been with the club for quite a while, such as Ales Hemsky, Sam Gagner, and Gilbert Brule.

This is another reason why Belanger is such an important addition. He plays a smart two-way game, rarely getting out of position or turning the puck over. He has the puck skills to contribute offensively and put in at the very least the TOI of second line center. In the Edmonton though, Belanger will likely be seeing a lot of first line duty along side Ryan Smyth perhaps, who brings back to town size and muscle, giving the top six a much needed gritty element.

A return to health of Shawn Horcoff will undoubtedly help the Oilers deploy a effective two-way third line. Teemu Hartikanen brief stint late in the season could be a precursor of things to come considering he brought a lot of these intangibles mostly missing with the roster last season. Harti plays a smart, physical game and could be another important addition this season. If Ryan Jones can continue to play like he did last season, he should further solidify a third line of Harti-Horc-Jones.

Offensively speaking, the Oilers should be able to markedly raise their goals-for this coming season. If the defense corp stays healthy, especially Whitney, the transition game will naturally improve as well. They'll have dynamic players to feed up front, as Hall and Eberle should be able to build on what were already quite successful rookie seasons. That duo will either make up two-thirds of a first line or second line -- perhaps 1a or 1b to be more accurate.

The big questions marks are Gagner, Paajarvi and the health of Hemsky. Even if one of those three produces for an entire season would, the oilers will be able deploy two legitimate scoring lines, which will provide more difficult match ups for opposing coaches, and help keep the opposing forwards and blueliners honest (which will naturally benefit EDM's defensive game as well). Here is a closer look at each skater on the depth chart:

Left Wing

Center

Right Wing

Smyth,Ryan

Belanger,Eric

Hemsky,Ales

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

L

6'2

192

$6.25

L

5'11

185

$1.75

R

6'0

184

$4.10

GP

G

A

Pts

GP

G

A

Pts

GP

G

A

Pts

82

23

24

47

82

13

27

40

47

14

28

42

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

18:02

14:46

2:57

0:19

17:20

14:02

1:30

1:47

18:16

14:16

3:13

0:47

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

25

1.69%

18

35

71

4.99%

45

36

29

3.37%

18

18

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

33

46

-13

-1

45

29

+16

+11

17

32

-15

+3

Smyth is still a viable top six forward that can play the PP and get 20G. His giveaways are something this team doesn't need more of though. Also eased up on the physical play.

Belanger was an excellent addition to the team. Brings superior faceoff numbers and solid defensive play. In addition, he's still a 40pt guy with top six TOI.

Hemsky is a relatively young at 27, really just entering the prime of his career. Like to see more TkAs. But hits at a higher rate than Smyth!

Hall,Taylor

Gagner,Sam

Eberle,Jordan

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

L

6'1

194

$3.75

R

5'11

191

$2.28

R

6'0

185

$1.16

GP

G

A

Pts

GP

G

A

Pts

GP

G

A

Pts

65

22

20

42

68

15

27

42

69

18

25

43

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

18:12

15:26

2:43

0:01

17:44

14:25

2:56

0:22

17:40

14:27

2:32

0:40

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

48

4.06%

37

27

24

1.99%

29

37

32

2.62%

17

22

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

45

45

+0

-9

33

38

-5

-17

56

41

+15

-12

Hall had an outstanding rookie campaign, played well densively, and with intensity. He was rewarded with tons of TOI. Will be interesting to see if he can raise his TkAs.

Gagner finished another season around the 40 point mark. Still struggles with many fund-amentals including physicality, faceoffs and finishing despite ample opportunity.

Eberle should be able to improve on wonderful rookie year. Only flaw is his size but he plays above it. Already mastering the art of stealing the puck.

Hartikainen,Teemu

Horcoff,Shawn

Paajarvi,Magnus

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

L

6'1

215

$0.88

L

6'1

208

$5.50

L

6'3

200

$1.53

GP

G

A

Pts

GP

G

A

Pts

GP

G

A

Pts

12

3

2

5

47

9

18

27

80

15

19

34

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

17:24

14:48

2:35

0:00

18:41

14:24

2:43

1:33

15:23

13:31

1:50

0:01

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

19

9.09%

6

4

32

3.64%

20

46

22

1.79%

25

16

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

4

5

-1

-3

29

24

+5

-1

25

35

-10

-13

Hartikainen plays a perfect style for the 3rd line. Is physical, can chip in offensively, and is solid defensively. Late season promotion is likely permanent.

Horcoff missed significant time with knee and foot injuries. If over those, he'll again be a solid 3rd line center. Good but not exceptional in all areas of the game.

Paajarvi had a so so rookie campaign. Skill is there -- confidence still forming. Would help if he played with more focus or intensity away from puck -- has the size.

Eager,Ben

Brule,Gilbert

Jones,Ryan

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

L

6'2

235

$1.10

R

5'11

186

$1.85

L

6'1

205

$1.50

GP

G

A

Pts

GP

G

A

Pts

GP

G

A

Pts

68

7

10

17

41

7

2

9

81

18

7

25

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

10:38

10:28

0:06

0:03

13:47

12:21

1:16

0:09

13:50

10:52

0:50

2:07

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

87

12.03%

28

120

95

16.80%

16

41

152

13.56%

57

34

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

21

26

-5

+4

9

29

-20

-7

38

33

+5

-5

Eager is an effective fourth line forward playing a physical style without hurting the team defensively. Just needs to keep his focus to not hurt team with bad PIMs.

Brule tends to always go for the hit yet doesn't come out of it with the puck. Balancing his huge hit totals with more focus on TkAs may help his overall game.

Jones is a physical winger that learned how to score at the NHL level without much in terms of PP time. He's ready to graduate to the 3rd line permanently.

Omark,Linus

Green,Josh

Hordichuk,Darcy

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

L

5'10

174

$0.88

L

6'3

218

$0.58

L

6'1

211

$0.83

GP

G

A

Pts

GP

G

A

Pts

GP

G

A

Pts

51

5

22

27

12

0

0

0

64

1

4

5

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

15:21

12:42

2:38

0:00

10:00

9:21

0:00

0:38

5:04

5:03

0:00

0:00

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

13

1.66%

19

26

11

9.16%

1

6

116

35.76%

4

76

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

33

35

-2

-16

3

0

+3

5

6

-1

-1

Omark needs to win a top six job to be a full-time NHLer. Needs to take another step this season in production either with EDM or another team in the NHL.

Green is an adequate reserve player pick up.

Hordichuk is a responsible energy forward who is terrific in the lockerroom and can play a regular fourth line shift when called upon.

Left Defense

Right Defense

Whitney,Ryan

Gilbert,Tom

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

L

6'3

210

$4.00

R

6'3

206

$4.00

GP

G

A

Pts

GP

G

A

Pts

35

2

25

27

79

6

20

26

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

25:20

18:19

4:19

2:42

24:30

18:09

2:59

3:21

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

29

3.27%

67

33

69

3.56%

172

32

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

20

41

-21

13

43

87

-44

-14

Whitney was re-establishing himself as point producing blueliner when disaster struck (ankle). Best d-man on team, will help PP and transition game that will translate into more wins.

Gilbert has played well when paired with Whitney. Is a giveaway machine but would benefit from a more potent EDM forecheck, thus reducing TOI spent in defensive zone.

Smid,Ladislav

Barker,Cam

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

L

6'3

226

$2.25

L

6'3

215

$2.25

GP

G

A

Pts

GP

G

A

Pts

78

0

10

10

52

1

4

5

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

20:16

16:50

0:45

2:40

16:24

14:10

1:22

0:50

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

145

9.17%

118

85

68

7.97%

61

34

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

19

59

-40

-10

6

5

+1

-10

Smid is a big, physical d-man that was able to remain healthy. Injuries to others meant an increased workload (esp on PK), hence the brutal TkA-GvA differential. Limited abilities though.

Barker's best year: 2007-08 playing ~18 mins/GP, hitting ~40 pts on 12th best CHI PP. In MIN, not same PP TOI; invisible in transition game; some physicality but overall, too uninvolved.

Peckham,Theo

Sutton,Andy

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

L

6'2

234

$1.08

L

6'6

245

$2.13

GP

G

A

Pts

GP

G

A

Pts

71

3

10

13

39

0

4

4

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

18:35

15:58

0:06

2:31

14:45

12:16

0:05

2:23

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

196

14.85%

123

198

62

10.78%

87

87

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

30

67

-37

-5

5

14

-9

1

Peckham would benefit from reduced workload -- would have fewer turnovers against other team's third and fourth line. Highly physical, he's a useful crease clearing presence.

Sutton is a depth d-man with a huge frame and the willingness to use it. His lack of mobility requires carefull deployment; candidate to sit out games when facing faster opponents.

Chorney,Taylor

Petry,Jeff

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

Shot

Ht

Wt

CapHit

L

6'0

193

$0.74

R

6'3

196

$1.00

GP

G

A

Pts

GP

G

A

Pts

12

1

3

4

35

1

4

5

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

TOI

ES TOI

PP TOI

SH TOI

15:59

13:30

1:49

0:39

20:22

16:54

2:11

1:16

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

Hits

Hits/Min

BkS

PIM

13

6.78%

17

4

48

6.73%

49

10

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

TkA

GvA

Dif

+/-

4

11

-7

-5

16

32

-16

-12

Chorney got a headstart on Petry; went pro 3 seasons ago, but was passed by the latter this season. Didn't get the games nor TOI as prior season. Needs to rebound or could become perma-depth.

Petry had succesful first pro year, promoted from AHL half way thru and got big TOI. Like Gilbert, RHS, good frame but not physical. Candidate to replace Barker in Top 4 sooner than later.

Back to how the roster might change both before training camp and before the 20012 trade deadline. I suspect both Ales Hemsky and Sam Gagner will be dealt, likely in separate transactions, ultimately returning a young top two center and young top six defenseman.

The timing is tough to predict, but I would start to keep to an ear out in early August, after which point the remaining big NHL RFAs will have had their hearings or will have come to terms. These signings or trades could unleash a domino effect around the league positively impacting the efforts of GM Steve Tambellini to get the best return for his key trading chips.

I suspect Linus Omark maybe filler, thrown into one of the deals to make it work for both sides. And after at least one of these deals are done, I also think EDM will sign one of the remaining UFAs forwards to play on the third or fourth line, perhaps someone like winger Brad Winchester who can play 10 to 12 minutes a night and score the odd goal as well. Here is the current roster and how I see it possibly re-aligning:

Smyth -Belanger - Hemsky* / Paajarvi

Hall - Gagner* / RNH" / X1- Eberle

Hartikanen - Horcoff - Paajarvi^ / Jones

Eager - Brule - Jones^ / Hordichuk

Hordichuk^, Omark*, Lander

Whitney - Gilbert

Smid - Barker"

Peckham - Sutton" / X2

Chorney, Petry^

Dubnyk

Khabibulin

Legend:

* trade bait

X1 is Hemsky's trade return

X2 is Gagner's trade return

^ promotion" demotion(RNH to WHL after first 9 games)

Below are lists of players from which one or two may find their way onto the Oilers roster by next March or possibly even by this September. And its important to note, these are not meant to be one to one proposals, but rather a guide to possible prime components in the aforementioned deals:

Ales Hemsky Deal Targets

NYR C Artem Anisimov
NYR C Derek Stepan

NYI C Josh Bailey

TOR C Nazem Kadri

MTL C Lars Eller

BOS C Tyler Seguin

CBJ C Ryan Johansen

VAN C Cody Hodgson

NSH C Colin Wilson

Obviously, certain players from the list above, such as Tyler Seguin, would require the stars to align. The Oilers would also need to put something else very valuable on the table (bundling strategy) -- ie, EDM's 2012 first round pick -- in addition to Hemsky, to get a player like Seguin. And I don't believe that is out of the question considering the time maybe right to actively mold the roster as part of the building strategy. This contrasts with just acquiring the best player available via the draft.

The NYR could be a more ideal trading partner though, as they are likely only a key player (Hemsky) away from deploying a Stanley Cup caliber roster. They also own the rights to a couple of young centers (Artem Anismov and Derek Stepan) that may be a better second line fit in EDM.

As for Sam Gagner, the return may not be as dynamic, but nonetheless, should be of considerable importance since it could be to the all important blueline. Management needs to fill out the roster with the missing elements both among the current defense corp and the blueline prospect pool. Here are some of the players that I believe may be of interest:

Sam Gagner Deal Targets

TOR D Cody Franson

TOR D Keith Aulie

WPG D Zach Bogosian

FLA D Erik Gudbranson

OTT D David Rundblad

OTT D Jared Cowen

BUF D Brayden McNabb

CHI D Dylan Olsen

PHX D Brandon Gormley

MIN D Jonas Brodin

NSH D Jon Blum

NSH D Ryan Ellis
NSH D Roman Josi

Overall, EDM is a team on the rise. It is my opinion, the next step for GM Tambellini is to go beyond simply drafting the BPA (best player available) and rather, actively seek the pieces that will round out the roster not only for today but also for the long-term future. Relying solely on the draft for core components can easily lead to a disparate mix of assets that never collectively take the next step(s) in becoming a playoff winner. For recent examples, one just needs to look at either the Columbus Blue Jackets or the (former) Atlanta Thrashers.

Fortunately for Edmonton, the franchise has a long tradition of winning, including five Stanley Cups. Their may be no Wayne Gretzky propelling this version of the Oilers. Keep in mind though, it took tinkering by former GM Glen Sather to get even a Gretzky led team to the promise land. In addition, once the foundation was laid, there was more winning to come even after the Gretzky era abruptly ended in in Edmonton.

The lesson to be learned is that a team must be built by assembling a core group that is strong down the middle, along the blueline and in goal. And then rounding out the roster with supplementary pieces that compliment the core group. This is a job not for the faint of heart though. Bold steps will be required to finish what has already been started.

1 comment:

LOL Franson or Aulie for Sam (no upside) Gagner....then you want a 20 year old Nazem Kadri for an aging always injured 27 year old Ales Hemsky, (he's only played 69 games in last 2 seasons) and has never completed a full 82 games. Only once he had 81 games and that was 2005-06......... must be smoking the wrong tobacco