Friday, December 31, 2010

"We are told the earth continues to get warmer, yet it’s feeling a lot colder outside.”

And as it does, we may logically conclude so much for global warming and the prediction of snow’s extinction. This probably led Dr Tim Ball, a respected climatologist to comment in his blog:

“Nasty old Mother Nature causes the demise by going about her normal business. As the old advertisement said, it’s not nice to fool with Mother Nature. The Northern Hemisphere winter is already proving once again that global warming is another undelivered government promise.”

Life apparently isn’t that straightforward.

Since 1998, the hottest year in recorded history, there is no statistically significant warming trend. And yet, none of the 24 models used by the IPCC view that as even possible. Simply put, they are at odds with reality. So what do global warmists do? They precisely did what Albert Einstein warned about of science regressing into a religion whenever facts are changed to suit theory instead of the other way round.The result is, you guessed it - all this cooling is due to global warming! This led to Steven Goddard in his blog to observe:

“No matter what the weather did or does, climate scientists blame it on global warming. Every event in nature is now seen as a sign of global warming. If it weren’t for CO2, the weather would be different and somehow better.”

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Last week, there was no let up in the cold conditions in New Delhi. The minimum temperature dropped further in the city to 4.7 degrees Celsius last Wednesday. This is in contrast to last year in December, were minimum temperatures touched only a low of 5.2 degrees during this month.

However, the all-time record for the lowest temperature December was registered in 1945, when it touched 1.1 degrees and that for January is -0.6 degrees recorded on January 16, 1935. In the recent past also near zero degree temperature (0.2 degree Celsius) was recorded on January 8, 2006 where Delhites woke-up surprised to see snow.

Wind, temperature and moisture values have conspired to set up fog to dense fog conditions over parts of northwest India.

Horizontal movement of moist air over a cold surface and the consequent cooling of that air to below its dew point are possible reasons.

NEXT WESTERLY

Clear nights, below-normal temperatures and humidity (ranging between 80 to 90 per cent) only abet these conditions.

It would take another western disturbance, one of which is forecast to enter the northwest in the next couple of days, to upset this pattern.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on weather during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning said that mercury dipped over northwest India after seeing off the last western disturbance.

MERCURY DIPS

The lowest minimum in the plains of the country was 1.0 deg Celsius recorded at Narnaul in Haryana during this period.

Dense fog conditions prevailed over parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and north Rajasthan during morning hours.

The cool and dry weather is expected to prevail over northwest, west, central and east India over the next two days.

Lingering moisture would cause the fog to linger over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, north Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh.

COLD DAY, SNOW

No significant change in night temperatures is expected over northwest and adjoining central India during this period. In fact, cold day conditions would prevail over isolated pockets of Haryana, Punjab, north Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh on Monday, the IMD said.

But forecast valid until Friday said that scattered rain or snow would occur over the western Himalayan region. Scattered rain or thundershowers would also occur over parts of plains of northwest India as the incoming western disturbance establishes its presence.

RAIN CLOUDS

Satellite imagery showed the presence of convective clouds over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, south Arabian Sea and south Bay of Bengal.

Meanwhile, in the south, an easterly wave with an embedded upper air cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay of Bengal has started affecting extreme south peninsular India. A few international models have been indicating the possibility of the circulation strengthening to become a low-pressure area or even a depression.

An IMD forecast valid until Friday (December 31) said that fairly widespread rainfall could occur over parts of south peninsular India. Meanwhile, an IMD agro-advisory bulletin dated December 24 said that the early sown rabi crops like wheat, mustard and gram have reached vegetative/late vegetative stage in Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Bihar.

After the abatement of low temperature conditions and application of irrigation coupled with ideal soil moisture conditions, farmers have been advised to undertake intercultural operations and application of fertilisers.

Severe cold conditions prevailed across north and eastern states of the country during the last week. These had triggered ground frost in some parts.

As there are chances of cold injury in the standing rabi crops in the above region, farmers are advised to apply light irrigation to the standing crops and build up smoke to protect the standing rabi crops from cold/frost injury.

Due to heavy rainfall during early part of December, rice crop have been extensively damaged in Thanjavur, Nagapattinam, Thiruvarur and Cuddalore districts of Tamil Nadu.

Similarly, most of the paddy, sugarcane, banana, pulses and vegetable fields in

Srikakulam, Vizianagaram and Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh got submerged. Farmers have been advised to arrange for drainage facilities.

Friday, December 24, 2010

Wind convergence is near the NE parts of Srilanka. But clouds are visible near ten degree latitude in the Bay. The clouds may be dragged along the [resultant] motion of winds towars W-NWly direction and clouds will be entering North Ramanathapuram coast, Pudukottai, Thanjavur, Thiruvarur, Nagapattinam coast from NE ly direction. [24.12.2010 /1412 hrs IST]

Minimum temperatures have looked up by 2 to 4 deg Celsius over parts of Haryana, Punjab, north Rajasthan and Gujarat ahead of arrival of a fresh western disturbance with its warming anomaly upfront.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Thursday said that the remaining parts of northwest, central and adjoining east India saw lesser warming due to the fading proximity factor.

LOWEST MERCURY

The lowest minimum temperature of 3.3 deg C during the last 24 hours ending Thursday morning in the plains of the country was recorded at Narnaul in Haryana. The incoming feeble western disturbance would affect western Himalayan region on Friday.

The IMD expects to see further rise in minimum temperatures by 1 to 2 deg Celsius over many parts of northwest, central and adjoining east India on Friday.

Isolated rain or snow may occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand on Friday.

COLDER WINDS

But minimum temperatures will look down after the western disturbance moves out to the east, making the way clear for colder nortwesterly winds to fill the plains. Meanwhile, in the south, an easterly wave is expected to affect parts of south peninsular India from Friday.

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS

Satellite cloud imagery on Thursday afternoon showed the presence of rain-bearing clouds over parts of north Kashmir, south Bay of Bengal, southeast Arabian Sea and south Andaman Sea.

Isolated rainfall has already been reported over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the 24 hours as the easterly wave drifted in from the southeast Bay of Bengal. The weather was largely dry over the remaining parts of the country during this period.

An outlook valid until Sunday said that dry weather would prevail over the plains of northwest, west, central and east India.

Scattered rain or thundershowers are expected to occur over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Isolated rain or thundershowers has been forecast over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep. But rainfall may scale up over Tamil Nadu from Friday onwards, the IMD said.

According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the major weather system to look forward to is a deep trough expected to arrive over southwest Rajasthan and adjoining Gujarat during next week.

A few international weather models have been forecasting possibility of scattered rains for parts of central and northwest India as the deep trough ploughs its way into the east and interacts with monsoon easterlies from the south.

Upper level Easterlies blowing from Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal to Arabian sea over penninsular India is becoming westerlies and blowing from Arabian Sea to Bay over NW and adjoining western parts of India. This will considerably resist minimum temperature going further down in Gujarat, Rajastan and some NW parts of India. Perphaps presence of Fog in these regions will be reduced at least partially.

Northern Hemi sphere Equitorial Trough [NHET] line which is well below 8 degree North; that is below Indian latitude. The spurts in the trough line may bring light to moderate rainfall over SE coast of Tamilnadu. The Sun will start its NORTHERLY movement from tomorrow [23 DEC] onwards. Usually during this transition period there happens to be more earth quake or Tsunami.

However weather will be taking a turn when Earth comes close to Sun by (147 million KM) on 3 Jan.

Dawn of the New Year may herald a burst of isolated to scattered showers over parts of northwest India and adjoining central India.

Interactive Rain

This will come about as a westerly system digs in deep to the south across the northwest Gujarat-southwest Rajasthan early next week.

Interaction of the westerlies and the monsoon easterlies across the peninsula is shown as setting off a trail of rains from this region propagating in a north-northeast direction.

The whole of the peninsular west, most of central India and parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar expected to slip under a wet cover during the course of the period, according to international models.

Coincidentally, this would also be the time around when a likely low-pressure area/depression in the Bay of Bengal could hit north Sri Lanka and southeast coast of Tamil Nadu in the immediate neighbourhood, these models aver.

Easterly Wave

The system is expected to break away from a concurrent easterly wave, one of which is already affecting southern peninsular India, an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. During the 24 hours ending Monday morning, the prevailing easterly wave brought fairly widespread rainfall over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, while it was scattered over Tamil Nadu.

Mercury Falls

An INSAT imagery in the afternoon showed the presence of rain-bearing clouds over parts of Nicobar Islands, South Bay of Bengal, Southeast Arabian Sea and South Andaman Sea.

Meanwhile, northwest India is expected to come under the influence of passing western disturbances as early as from this Wednesday.

An IMD outlook on Monday said that a feeble western disturbance may affect the western Himalayan region on Wednesday and Thursday.

Cool northwesterly winds are currently blowing across the Indo-Gangetic plains. Minimum temperatures have fallen by 1 to 2 deg Celsius over some parts of northwest and central India over the past 24 hours.

The lowest minimum recorded overnight in the plains of northwest India has dipped relative to the previous day to 0.6 deg Celsius at Adampur in Punjab.

Frost Watch

A weather warning issued by the IMD retained the outlook for night temperatures to probe 4 deg Celsius and even lower.

This could trigger ground frost in isolated pockets of Punjab, Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh and north Rajasthan during the nights of Tuesday and Wednesday.

No significant change in minimum temperatures is expected over northwest and central India on Tuesday and Wednesday, given the calming influence of an incoming western disturbance.

But mist or shallow fog may over parts of Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in the early morning hours thanks to the moisture feed embedded in the westerly system.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

NEM 2010 has again going to revive over Coramendal coast. Today [19.12.2010 / Sunday :about 2100 hrs it started raining moderately in coastal areas of Villupuram, Cuddalore and Puducherry districts. The convective cloud development is legitimately visible. More over the SST is also relatively higher in the "near shore areas" of SW bay & adjoing SE bay.

Friday, December 17, 2010

This has to be one of the most recognizable song lyrics out there during every Christmas season. White Christmas was actually written in 1940 by an Irving Berlin for the 1942 movie "Holiday Inn" starring Bing Crosby and Fred Astaire.

Songs often reflect the times. As seen from the graph, the period 1920-45 was a period the globe experienced warming at a scale matching those seen during 1977-2000. In fact the warmest year for USA remains 1934 and then only 1998 according to NASA data. A snow covered Christmas Day was a rarity then and Irving Berlin captured within the lyrics the nostalgia when snow was more common, perhaps explaining the sheer magnetism the song holds.

The planet undergoes a warm-cool oscillation on an average, every 25-30 years, correlating significantly with a climatic phenomenon called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as seen in the graph. Living almost in a quarter of a century within the same cycle will tend to prompt almost anybody to forget what it meant living in an opposite cycle.

As was the case of Irving Berlin in the 40s, it was also the same at turn of the millennium, wherein almost two decades of warming made most forget that a global cooling mode is next to come as part of earth’s natural climatic variability. An article in the UK’s Independent newspaper with a dateline 20 March 2000 best illustrated this popular fallacy when it predicted snow will become extinct:

"According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event. Children just aren't going to know what snow is”

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Japanese researchers have maintained the outlook for the prevailing La Nina to peak over the next few months and last into early 2012 even as peer models from around the globe are less assertive.

The monsoon-friendly event might be long-lasting and persist till early 2012, the latest update from the Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC), an affiliate of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, said.

The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services and the Australian Bureau for Meteorology have stopped short of taking a call beyond the northern hemisphere spring for La Nina to continue.

Associated with this strong La Nina event, surface air temperature over many parts of the globe is expected to look down during the 2010-11 winter.

But South-East North America may experience warmer-than-normal winter. Parts of North-East Asia (including Japan) also might have warmer-than-normal winter.

Above-normal precipitation is likely over Australia, South Africa, North-East Brazil and South Asian countries, the RIGC said in its outlook.

WARM ANOMALY

December, January and February could witness cooler-than-normal climes in India except West Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir and the northeastern States where temperatures could rise to slightly above normal.

The warmth is attributed to a cascading impact from across the border, with West Asia, Pakistan and Afghanistan expected to witness warmer than normal winter.

The RIGC also supported the outlook for possibility of above-normal summer showers for southern peninsula early next year. A similar trend could be evident to a lesser extent over parts of East and West India.

The causative upper air cyclonic circulation persisted over South Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood.

Dry but cool northwesterly winds are prevailing over North-West and Central India. Cloud-free skies have caused minimum temperatures to fall by 2 to 3 degree Celsius over many parts of Central and East India.

Actual minimum temperatures recorded ranged between 4 to 8 degree Celsius over many parts of North-West and Central India.

The lowest recorded minimum temperature in the plains of North-West India during this period was 3 degree Celsius at Narnaul (Haryana).

Forecast valid until Saturday spoke about the possibility of scattered rain or thundershowers over extreme South Peninsular India.

A feeble western disturbance is expected to cause light precipitation over Jammu and Kashmir from Wednesday onwards.

Mainly dry weather would prevail over plains of North-West, West, Central and East India.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts saw the possibility of accentuation of a trough from the seas to the south of Sri Lanka from Saturday onwards.

It is shown as propagating itself a little to the north to impact Sri Lanka and extreme South Indian peninsula.

Scattered rains are indicated for Coastal Tamil Nadu as well as for the South-West Coast (Kerala and Karnataka) during the week ending December 22, according to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction.

The fact that no significant weather system is affecting the country for the time being has allowed dry and cold air to filter into the plains of Northwest, Central and even Peninsular India.

An update by the Noida-based National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said that a feeble western disturbance sat over the northern parts of the country on Sunday.

FOG LIKELY

The system will get a move away to the east by Monday, and may set up fog to shallow fog conditions over the plains of Northwest India mainly during the morning hours.

Another western disturbance is likely to affect the northern parts of the country from later in the week, around Thursday, the NCMRWF said. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was in agreement with this.

These are places where colder polar northwesterly winds have been blowing from across the Northwest border.

The rest of West and Central India have continental westerlies as prevailing winds, steered around the West Madhya Pradesh-Mumbai area and into the Arabian Sea, bringing down the minimum temperatures in the process.

A seasonal IMD outlook had earlier said that moisture incursion, persistent clouding and rainfall had dented maximum temperatures and ratcheted up minimum temperatures over Northwest and adjoining Central India.

The setting in of northerlies/northwesterlies in the lower levels over the northern plains, which are generally responsible for advection of cold and dry continental air from the North, was also delayed in this manner.

COLD SNAP

But the mean temperatures for December are expected to remain slightly below normal.

The experimental extended range forecasts of IMD for the month also indicate higher (60-90 per cent) probability of below normal maximum and minimum temperatures over the plains.

Other global centres have also predicted high probability of below normal temperatures during this winter, the IMD said.

In this context, it cited the probabilistic forecast by ECMWF, which indicated a high probability of below normal temperatures during the three months period of December 2010 to February 2011.

LA NINA OUTLOOK

The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services quoted some international models as saying that prevailing La Nina conditions in the East Pacific could persist into the summer of 2011.

Historically, there are more multi-year La Nina episodes than El Nino episodes, but other than support from a few model runs, there is no consensus for a multi-year La Nina at this time, it said.

Consequently, La Nina is anticipated to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring, with no particular outcome favoured thereafter.

The Regional Institute for Global Climate in Tokyo is already on record with a prediction for La Nina to extend into early 2012.

Back home, an IMD forecast for Northwest, West, Central and East India said that mainly dry weather would prevail over these regions until Wednesday.

MERCURY DIP

A gradual fall in minimum temperatures is to be expected over northwest, central and adjoining east India during the following three days from colder northwesterly winds. Continental westerlies may reduce the chill effect for West India.

As for South India, the last 24 hours ending Sunday morning saw scattered rainfall over Kerala, Lakshadweep, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

An Insat cloud imagery on Sunday showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Southeast Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.

The scattered rain and thundershower activity may continue over Kerala, Coastal and South Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep for the rest of the week as westerlies blow in across the Arabian Sea.

Not perfect, no treaty, not binding, fails to establish a firm date for negotiators to reach a conclusion on a new climate treaty, but a deal has been struck. The agreement says that developing countries will have to take "nationally appropriate actions" to curb their emissions by 2020. Hence, developing nations don't have to take targeted emission cuts like their developed counterparts. And the developed countries need not have any legally binding commitments. A compromise to accommodate everyone (almost everyone, except for Bolvia) ......The deal made a grab for the lower hanging fruits and includes a Green Climate Fund that would give $133 billion a year in aid to poor nations by 2020, measures to protect tropical forests and ways to share clean energy technologies. These are sops to the developing countries for their part in the compromise. The only problem is that the details in operationalizing these measures are still not finalized.

For several years now, we sceptics have bemusedly eyed a phenomenon known as “The Gore Effect”, in veneration of Global Warming’s High Priest and US ex-Vice President, Al Gore. It describes almost a seemingly causal relationship of temperature decrease whenever global warming or when a global warming event is held. The Gore Effect" has rather a long and uniquely entertaining history. In simple terms, it strikes the warmists whenever and wherever they gather as if Mother Nature herself is mocking their climate hysteria.

Cancún has a tropical climate, specifically a tropical wet and dry climate with little temperature differences between seasons, but pronounced rainy seasons. The city is warm year-round, and moderated by onshore trade winds, with an annual mean temperature of 27.1 °C (80.8 °F). This placed the odds stacked heavily against a Gore Effect strike Cancun. And yet, it didn’t fail us. For six consecutive days during the Cancun Meet, temperatures hit a 100 year low!

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

The low expectations of the Cancun UNFCC, COP 16 however misleads as it gives an impression that almost nothing will materialize as tangible outcomes. Judging from the first week proceedings, we climate sceptics are being forced to radically revise this faulty perception. With all humility we confess, we were wrong, so wrong. Never in our wildest imagination did we expect Cancun would set the ball rolling for the quicker end of this global warming scam.

Three developments in particular triggered our revision of perception. The most significant setback to climate alarmists was Japan’s refusal to extend their Kyoto commitments. The Guardian reported “The forthrightness of the statement took people by surprise, said one British official". Soon after Japan’s stunner came UN climate chief Christiana Figueres' clarification that Japan is only one of three countries among the 36 signatories that's opposed to extending their emission targets under the pact. She announced the others being Canada and Russia! The flood gates are now open to dump Kyoto! If this is not the beginning of the end of this scam what is?