July brings warmer weather, higher cooling costs

06/12/2013

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Several climate indices suggest warmer than normal temperatures can be expected across portions of the Desert Southwest, southern Plains, Great Basin, and south-central Rockies during the month of July. Parts of the Southeast may also see temperatures above normal during this time period. Monthly cooling degree day surpluses of between 30 and 90 are projected throughout these regions of the country during July. As a result, energy costs with respect to cooling will also likely be higher than normal across these areas.

Latest long-range model forecasts currently indicate that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will likely cycle between positive and negative phases over the next month or two. This type of pattern generally leads to temperatures that are closer to normal throughout the Northeast, Midwest, and Great Lakes and this is what is predicated for these areas in July. There are some indications that parts of the upper Midwest and northern Plains could even be slightly cooler than normal, but this was not fully bought into at this time.

As for the ENSO phase, it remains neutral and climate models continue to suggest that this will persist through summer months. Currently, there are no signs of El Nino or La Nina across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.