III. World Population Growth

Transcription

1 III. World Population Growth Population dynamics are one of the key factors to consider when thinking about development. In the past 50 years the world has experienced an unprecedented increase in population growth (see Figure 3.1). Do you know why? Grouping Countries by Their Level of Development A "natural population increase" occurs when the birth rate is higher than the death rate. While a country's population growth rate depends on the natural increase and on migration, global population growth is determined exclusively by the natural increase. Around the world, death rates gradually decreased in the late 19th and the 20th centuries, with death rates in developing countries plummeting after World War II thanks to the spread of modern medicine that allowed control of infectious diseases. In much of the developing world the decline in death rates preceded the decline in birth rates by 20 years or more (see Figure 3.2), resulting in record-high rates of population growth of 3 percent or even 4 percent a year. Since the 1960s birth rates have also been declining rapidly in most developing countries except those in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. This decrease in birth rates in the developing world is even more rapid than that characteristic of Europe and the United States in the 19th century. Page 1 of 5

2 Today's low-income countries still have the world s highest birth rates (see Map 3.1), although women tend to have fewer children than before. The reasons for lower fertility are varied, but most are related to developing countries' economic growth and development (see Figure 3.3; see also Chapters 4, 7, 8). Parents choose to have smaller families when health conditions improve because they no longer have to fear that many of their babies might die, and when they do not have to rely on their children to work on the family farm or business or to take care of them in their old age. In addition, more parents are sending their daughters to school, which is important because women with basic education tend to produce healthier children and smaller families. More women now have opportunities to work outside the home, so they are starting their families later and having fewer children. On top of all that, access to modern contraceptives for family planning is improving, making it easier for parents to control the number and spacing of their children. Page 2 of 5

3 Lower fertility rate does not immediately lead to lower birth rate and lower population growth rate if a country has a larger proportion of men and women in their reproductive years than before. Population growth caused by more women giving birth even though each has the same number of or fewer children is called "population momentum." Population momentum is particularly significant in developing countries that had the highest fertility rates 20 to 30 years ago. The decline in birth rates over the past few decades has lowered population growth rates in developing countries despite a continuing decline in death rates. Population growth is even Page 3 of 5

4 slower in developed countries (Figure 3.4). Stabilizing birth rates and increasing death rates (the latter being a result of aging populations; see Chapter 8) have already led to a natural population decrease in Italy and Germany. Japan and Spain are expected to follow soon (see birth rates and death rates in Data Table 1). The formerly socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe present a major exception to the broad similarity of demographic trends in developed and developing countries. The rapid decline in death rates that occurred in the 1950s and 1960s slowed down in the 1970s and 1980s. In the 1990s death rates actually increased in Russia and some other transition countries, including Belarus, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine. In the late 1990s death rates in these middle-income countries exceeded the average death rate for low-income countries and approached the rates in Sub-Saharan Africa. This dramatic and historically unprecedented reversal in mortality trends is primarily explained by higher adult male mortality: among older men mainly because of the increase in cardiovascular disease, among younger men because of more accidents, suicides, and murders. Many of these factors can be related to stress and substance abuse (heavy drinking and smoking), which in turn can be linked to the increased unemployment, worsening living conditions, and greater economic uncertainty that have accompanied the transition. But rapid economic reforms have not necessarily been detrimental to people's health in all transition countries. For example, in the Czech Republic the death rate has continued to decline (see Figure 3.5), while in Hungary and Poland it has held steady. Page 4 of 5

5 Birth rates in the transition countries of Europe have dropped sharply in the past 5 to 10 years, just as the death rates were on the increase. The reasons for that drop are different from those in most developing countries: they are believed to be closely associated with a lower quality of life and the uncertainties caused by the social and economic crisis of transition. As a result fertility rates in these countries are now far below the "replacement level" (the level at which population size would become stable, considered to be slightly more than two children per family) and lower than those in most developed countries (see Figure 3.3). Because of these unusual demographic trends increasing death rates combined with dropping birth rates many of the transition countries of Europe have already experienced natural decreases in population. On the global scale, falling fertility rates already have decreased the population growth rate-- from more than 2.0 percent to 1.5 percent a year over the past 30 years. Experts expect this trend to continue, so that by the end of this century the world s population will stabilize at 9 to 10 billion people. But in the meantime, in absolute numbers it is still growing faster than ever before by about 230,000 people a day. This is happening because of the larger-than-ever population base -- in 2000 there were about 6 billion people on earth, about twice as many as in The projected increase of the world s population from the current 6 billion to 9-10 billion at the end of the century will be attributable almost entirely to population growth in developing countries. Thus the share of developing countries in the world s population is expected to increase from the current 84 percent to 88 percent or more. Rapid growth of the developing countries population, particularly in the next 50 years, poses many economic, social, and environmental challenges, not only for these countries but also for the entire global community. Whether these additional billions of people get access to adequate education and health services, are able to find gainful employment, and manage to avoid poverty and hunger will be critical for the possibility of global sustainable development. Page 5 of 5

3 World Population Growth Why is world population growing faster than ever before? Population dynamics are one of the key factors to consider when thinking about development. In the past years the world

World Population Ageing 195-25 IV. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF THE OLDER POPULATION A. AGE COMPOSITION Older populations themselves are ageing A notable aspect of the global ageing process is the progressive

Part Burden of disease:. Broad cause composition 0 5. The age distribution of burden of disease 6. Leading causes of burden of disease 7. The disease and injury burden for women 6 8. The growing burden

Russia s Mortality Crisis WILL WE EVER LEARN? PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 127 Vladimir Popov New Economic School (Moscow) We do not hear about it often, but the phenomenon is truly unprecedented: the

Global Demographic Trends and their Implications for Employment BACKGROUND RESEARCH PAPER David Lam and Murray Leibbrandt Submitted to the High Level Panel on the Post-2015 Development Agenda This paper

Statistical bulletin National Life Tables, United Kingdom: 2012 2014 Trends for the UK and constituent countries in the average number of years people will live beyond their current age measured by "period

Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations Secretariat Replacement Migration United Nations ST/ESA/SER.A/206 Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs

Short Analytical Web Note 3/2015 This analytical web-note contains an extensive update of the main demographic trends for the EU and a labour-market supplement which outlines the potential consequences

OECD - Paris, 8 April 2015 Development aid stable in 2014 but flows to poorest countries still falling Key aid totals in 2014 Detailed summary In 2014, net official development assistance (ODA) flows from

Skills Worksheet Critical Thinking ANALOGIES In the space provided, write the letter of the pair of terms or phrases that best complete the analogy shown. An analogy is a relationship between two pairs

PRESS KIT Pan-European opinion poll on occupational safety and health Results across 36 European countries Press kit Conducted by Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute at the request of the European Agency

FACT SHEET THE TOP TEN CAUSES OF DEATH THE TEN LEADING CAUSES OF DEATH BY BROAD INCOME GROUP 2002 High-income countries Deaths in millions % of deaths Coronary heart 1.34 17.1 Stroke and other s 0.77 9.8

Brochure More information from http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/2876228/ Electricity, Gas and Water: The European Market Report 2014 Description: The combined European annual demand for electricity,

Introduction INSURANCE GUIDELINES 2015 valid from 01.01.15 till 31.12.15 These guidelines summarise the levels of cover provided by an insurance policy held by SCI with AXA Winterthur, an insurance company

Annual report 2009: the state of the drugs problem in Europe International Conference: New trends in drug use: facts and solutions, Parliament of the Republic of Vilnius - 5 November 2009 Dagmar Hedrich

Statistical Data on Women Entrepreneurs in Europe September 2014 Enterprise and Industry EUROPEAN COMMISSION Directorate-General for Enterprise and Industry Directorate D SMEs and Entrepreneurship Unit

JAPAN Past trends The total fertility rate in Japan fell from 2.75 births per women in 195-1955 to 2.8 births in 1955-196. Total fertility remained at the near-replacement level between 196 and 1975, and

What is an intergenerational report? An intergenerational report assesses the long term sustainability of Commonwealth finances. It examines the impact of current policies and trends, including population

. European Union (a) Past trends The total fertility rate in the 15 countries that presently constitute the European Union was on a rising curve until 196-65, when it attained 2.69 births per woman. Since

Definitions and methodology CO1.2: at birth at birth is the average number of years a newborn can expect to live if he or she experienced the age-specific mortality rates prevalent in a particular year.

Australian Population & Migration Research Centre Vol. 2 No. 2 March/April 2014 THE DEMOGRAPHIC FACTS OF AGEING IN AUSTRALIA: PATTERNS OF GROWTH By Graeme Hugo POLICY BRIEF It is well recognized that population

Business Intelligence Software : Europe, 2002 (Executive Summary) Executive Summary Publication Date: 9 January 2004 Authors Fabrizio Biscotti Colleen Graham This document has been published to the following

Tanzania: Population, Reproductive Health & Development Photo credits: IFAD / Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman and USAID. Hosted by the Government Population Planning Section President s s Office,

IMMIGRATION TO AND EMIGRATION FROM GERMANY IN THE LAST FEW YEARS Bernd Geiss* Germany, Destination for Migrants Germany is in the middle of Europe and has common borders with nine countries. Therefore,

14 Economic Development and the Risk of Global Climate Change Who is primarily responsible for creating the risk of global climate change? 78 Since the industrial revolution, economic development has been

Term 1 Assignment AP European History To Incoming Sophomores Enrolled in AP European History for the 2015-2016 Year: This course is probably different than any you have completed thus far in your educational

Ending CHILD MARRIAGE Progress and prospects UNICEF/BANA213-182/Kiron The current situation Worldwide, more than 7 million women alive today were married before their 18th birthday. More than one in three

Eurobarometer Monitoring the social impact of the crisis: public perceptions in the European Union (wave 6) REPORT Fieldwork: December 2011 Publication: April 2012 This survey has been requested by Directorate-General

Street Smart: Demographics and Trends in Motor Vehicle Accident Mortality In British Columbia, 1988 to 2000 by David Baxter 3-Year Moving Average Age Specific Motor Vehicle Accident Death Rates British

The Development of Self-Employment in Russia Theodore February 2001 PONARS Policy Memo 186 University of Arizona Despite the important economic, social, and political roles the self-employed can potentially

TRENDS IN WORLD OLIVE OIL CONSUMPTION World consumption of olive oil increased 1.8 fold in volume between 1990/00 and 2015/16. As can be seen from Chart 1, this upward movement has been located primarily

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike License. Your use of this material constitutes acceptance of that license and the conditions of use of materials on this

Statistical Bulletin National Life Tables, United Kingdom, 2011-2013 Coverage: UK Date: 25 September 2014 Geographical Area: Country Theme: Population Key Points A newborn baby boy could expect to live

Munich Re Economic Research May 2014 Premium growth is again slowly gathering momentum After a rather restrained 2013 (according to partly preliminary data), we expect growth in global primary insurance

New South Wales State and Regional Population Projections 21-251 251 24 Release TRANSPORT AND POPULATION DATA CENTRE THE TRANSPORT AND POPULATION DATA CENTRE (TPDC) The TPDC is located in the NSW Department

Mortgage protection Free cover (Only available if you have applied for a Decreasing Mortgage Cover Plan or a Level Protection Plan). At Zurich, we understand the importance of financial protection when

1. TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION This chapter provides a brief overview of global and regional patterns and trends in international migration since 199. It also describes selected characteristics of

Retirement Research Series Your Future by Design Health, money, retirement: The different needs of men and women This research report is one of several reports in the Your Future by Design Retirement Research

Hungary is the 48th on the global economic freedom ranking According to the latest index on economic freedom prepared by the Wall Street Journal and the Heritage Foundation (Index of Economic Freedom),

Register ID: 092682012915-24 PostEurop position paper on the ERGP consultation on the implementation of the Universal Service in the postal sector in view of the market developments Brussels, 14 November

75/2015-27 April 2015 Labour Force Survey 2014 Almost 10 million part-time workers in the EU would have preferred to work more Two-thirds were women Among the 44.1 million persons in the European Union

The spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy measures in major developed countries on developing countries Tatiana Fic National Institute of Economic and Social Research Objective The objective

Education 2009 Adult Education Survey 2006, European comparison Adults in the Nordic countries actively participate in education and training Persons aged 25 to 64 who live in the Nordic countries (Finland,

Fact sheet: The need for mitigation United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Along with adaptation, mitigation is one of the two central approaches in the international climate change process.

?? Directorate-General for Communication PUBLIC OPINION MONITORING UNIT 2014 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS DESK RESEARCH Brussels, April 2015 Profile of voters and abstainees in the European elections 2014 INTRODUCTION...

ERASMUS+ MASTER LOANS Erasmus+ Master Loan: opening up access to more affordable lending for cross-border studies The Erasmus+ programme makes it possible for students who want to take a full Masters level

March 2010 Population Policy brief The rapid growth of the world s population is a subject that receives too little political and public attention. It currently stands at 6.8 billion, up from 2.5 billion

Marriage rates Definitions and methodology SF3.1: Marriage and divorce rates The crude marriage rate is the number of marriages formed each year as a ratio to 1 000 people. This measure disregards other

Highlights on health in Hungary 2005 Highlights on health give an overview of a country s health status, describing recent data on mortality, morbidity and exposure to key risk factors along with trends

Health at a Glance: Europe 2014 (joint publication of the OECD and the European Commission) Released on December 3, 2014 http://www.oecd.org/health/health-at-a-glance-europe-23056088.htm Table of Contents

You re One in Seven Billion! We ve all heard the expression, You re one in a million!. With the ever-growing number of people on the planet, it might be more accurate to say, You re one in seven billion!

Q&A on methodology on HIV estimates 09 Understanding the latest estimates of the 2008 Report on the global AIDS epidemic Part one: The data 1. What data do UNAIDS and WHO base their HIV prevalence estimates

Undergraduate Degree Completion by Age 25 to 29 for Those Who Enter College 1947 to 2002 About half of those who start higher education have completed a bachelor's degree by the ages of 25 to 29 years.

European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction UPDATED 28. 5. 2013 PERSPECTIVES ON DRUGS Trends in heroin use in Europe: what do treatment demand data tell us? The current number of problem opioid

Homelessness: A silent killer A research briefing on mortality amongst homeless people December 2011 Homelessness: A silent killer 2 Homelessness: A silent killer December 2011 Summary This briefing draws