Volatile Pierce County Council member Pam Roach has been on the outs with fellow Republicans in the Legislature, and now with colleagues on the council. She has run for a lot of offices, however, and came close in a 1992 U.S. House race. less

Volatile Pierce County Council member Pam Roach has been on the outs with fellow Republicans in the Legislature, and now with colleagues on the council. She has run for a lot of offices, however, and came close ... more

Photo: Mike Urban/Seattle Post-Intelligencer

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State Republican Chair Susan Hutchison: She has potential as a candidate to succeed GOP U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert, or could play a vital referee's role in keeping down the field of Republican hopefuls. A predecessor as Republican chair, Jennifer Dunn, went on to a successful career in Congress. less

State Republican Chair Susan Hutchison: She has potential as a candidate to succeed GOP U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert, or could play a vital referee's role in keeping down the field of Republican hopefuls. A ... more

Photo: P-I File

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State Sen. Joe Fain, R-47 (left), from southeast King County, has built a strong reputation in the Legislature and would be a formidable Republican candidate to succeed Reichert. But Fain's legislative seat is up in 2018. less

State Sen. Joe Fain, R-47 (left), from southeast King County, has built a strong reputation in the Legislature and would be a formidable Republican candidate to succeed Reichert. But Fain's legislative seat ... more

Photo: Scott Eklund, Seattle Post-Intelligencer

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With three near-misses in statewide races, state Sen. Dino Rossi would be a strong Republican contender for the 8th District congressional seat of Reichert, R-Wash.

With three near-misses in statewide races, state Sen. Dino Rossi would be a strong Republican contender for the 8th District congressional seat of Reichert, R-Wash.

Photo: Elliot Suhr, Seattlepi.com

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Issaquah pediatrician Dr. Kim Schrier is one of 9 Democrats already in the field for the seat of retiring Republican U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert.

Issaquah pediatrician Dr. Kim Schrier is one of 9 Democrats already in the field for the seat of retiring Republican U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert.

Photo: Photo Courtesy Of Kim Schrier

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Connelly: Will logjam of Democrats help GOP hold Reichert's House seat?

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The Washington "top two" primary election could just dash Democrats' high hopes in 2018 for targeting and capturing the 8th District Congressional seat of retiring Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Wash.

A clue: Nine Democratic challengers have already announced against Reichert, at least four of them serious in addition to the dogs and cats. Such a big field has the potential not just to splinter the vote, but yield sawdust.

An astute young Seattle activist, Derek Richards, laid out the scenario on Facebook: "Prediction: 18 Democrats run and two Republicans run, the two Republicans make the top two primary after 18 Democrats split the vote."

We're very early in the 2018 race. The 8th District is, however, tricky terrain. It includes southeast King County, parts of northwest Pierce County, and crosses the Cascades -- right through the Jolly Mountain fire -- to take in Kittitas and Chelan counties. Hillary Clinton narrowly carried the district in 2016. She sure didn't win east of the Cascade Crest.

Our political parties yowled, but partisan primaries went extinct in Washington a few years ago. The top two vote getters in the primary move on to the general election, even if their political affiliations are the same.

The result has sometimes been an echo rather than a choice. Two Democrats, Pramila Jayapal and Brady Walkinshaw, faced off last November in the heavily Democratic 7th District in the race to succeed Congressman-for-life Jim McDermott.

In the conservative 4th District of Central Washington, voters have twice faced the general election choice of establishment Republican Dan Newhouse and ultra-right Tea Party activist Clint Didier. The establishment has prevailed, narrowly in 2014 after airing TV ads depicting Didier as an absolute kook.

Party discipline will be a big deal next year.

Democratic State Chair Tina Podlodowski is already asking bucks for something called the "Flip the 8th Organizing Academies" building a base for the hotly contested seat.

A far more urgent task will be to winnow the field of Democrats, either by gentle, persuasive talk or by financial pressure.

It sure wasn't pretty, but the Dems in 2000 united behind Snohomish County Councilman Rick Larsen when the 2nd District seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jack Metcalf came over. State Rep. Jeff Morris, he of independent reputation, was bumped.

Similarly, in 2010, Republican leaders made clear their preference for state Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler as their candidate to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Brian Baird. She got the bucks. "Bumpees" were not happy.

The Republicans tend to be better disciplined.

They have the potential of a consensus candidate, or maybe two, unless an obnoxious outlier -- e.g. tempestuous Pierce County Councilwoman Pam Roach -- chooses to make the race. Roach was barely clipped a quarter-century ago when she ran against Jennifer Dunn in a U.S. House GOP primary.

The dangers for the Democrats: 1) There will be too many of them; 2) they will spend too much time out-of-district campaigning in Seattle; 3) they will start taking outlandish positions, pursuing endorsements in such venues as the playpen politics of the King County Democratic Party.

This has happened. Democrats were aced in the race for a promising California seat in Congress. Voters had the choice of two Republicans.

So, the first clue in following the contest to succeed Dave Reichert: Watch to see who gets bumped. Alas, the Washington Open Meetings Act does not cover venues where the bumping will take place.

Columnist Joel Connelly has written about politics for the P-I since 1973.