Greg Hinz On Politics

AFSCME poll finds Rauner job rating slipping fast

As contract negotiations between the Rauner administration and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees union continue to heat up, a new poll out today shows that Gov. Bruce Rauner's job approval rating has taken a pretty big hit and the union retains a lot of public support.

I'd take it all with a teaspoon of salt, given that the poll was commissioned by AFSCME with Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, a respected but Democratic-leaning firm. But if the numbers are even close—and I've heard of one survey from a disinterested party with similar numbers—it ought to cause the governor at least a little heartburn.

The biggest finding is that Rauner's favorability rating has gone south in the last year or so.

In April 2015, Anzalone gave Rauner a 47 percent favorable rating to 36 percent unfavorable, a net plus 11. But in the new survey of 600 likely voters conducted July 6 to 10, those numbers now have more than flipped, with just 38 percent of voters having a positive opinion of the governor and 50 percent unfavorable. That's a minus 14, with "very unfavorable" leaping from 24 percent to 37 percent.

Rauner's job approval rating has slipped, too.

On April 2015, it was 45 percent to 35 percent positive, with 13 percent undecided or not answering. Now it's 35 percent positive to 60 percent negative, with the share of those giving the GOP governor a poor mark in this usually Democratic state nearly doubling, from 23 percent to 41 percent.

Interestingly, the share of those siding with Rauner as opposed to employee unions such as AFSCME hasn't changed much. The pro-union side moved from 51 percent to 54 percent, the pro-Rauner side from 33 percent to 30 percent.

A third source who often polls for Republicans, Greg Durham at We Ask America, says it hasn't surveyed on Rauner recently, but when it asked in June who is to blame for state budget woes, far more mentioned House Speaker Mike Madigan, 55 percent, than Rauner, 34 percent.

It also came as the union and governor continue to be at loggerheads over a proposed new contract. Earlier in the week, Trey Childress, the state's chief operating officer, sent agency directors a memo warning of a possible strike by Sept. 1 and saying such an action could lose workers thousands of dollars each month and possibly violate state law.

AFSCME says it's Rauner who's being unreasonable, pushing for a wage freeze and higher health care premiums that also would cost workers thousands of dollars a year.