This copy is for your personal non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies of Toronto Star content for distribution to colleagues, clients or customers, or inquire about permissions/licensing, please go to: www.TorontoStarReprints.com

Notley playing ‘one of the oldest cards in Alberta politics’ to pull out of climate plan

CALGARY—The Alberta NDP’s political future is looking significantly bleaker after a court decision Thursday that put the Trans Mountain pipeline on hold.

The full extent of political fallout from the Federal Court of Appeal’s decision Thursday has yet to be seen, but with the NDP and Premier Rachel Notley facing a looming fight for re-election before the end of May next year, experts agree that delays to the pipeline are the last thing the party needs.

Rachel Notley vowed Thursday that Alberta will pull out of the national climate plan “until the federal government gets its act together.” (JASON FRANSON / The Canadian Press)

“This was one of the worst days, if not the worst day in office for the (Alberta) New Democrats,” said University of Calgary political science professor David Stewart.

Political fortunes in Alberta are often tied to the energy industry, added Mount Royal University policy studies professor Lori Williams. And as Notley is trying to position her party as a driver of the province’s ongoing economic recovery, she’s faced with a situation where she “doesn’t have the levers” to change her current situation other than increasing pressure on other groups.

That’s an ongoing challenge with the pipeline file, Williams said. While Alberta has been pushing for the Trans Mountain to be built, decisions have often been in the courts’ or federal government’s hands.

Article Continued Below

“There’s a lot of unknowns at this stage. We don’t know when, how or even if this is going to get resolved and what that’s going to mean politically,” Williams said.

In a speech Thursday evening, Notley also made a surprising move, vowing that Alberta will pull out of Canada’s national climate plan “until the federal government gets its act together.”

Stewart said that puts an age-old Alberta political tradition into play.

Article Continued Below

“It sets the stage for a defence that in the absence of a pipeline in the next election Notley will have to make, which is to play one of the oldest cards in Alberta politics: western alienation. Blame the federal government.”

Notley’s move to distance herself from Ottawa could offer some leverage in a situation where she’s left with limited options.

Stewart said that considering where things stand now, simply getting the approvals for the pipeline lined up would be a big win that could bolster the NDP — actually getting construction on the pipeline underway is no longer as crucial to its political positioning.

“I wouldn’t have thought earlier this week that approvals would be enough,” he said. “But now approvals would look like a major step forward.”

In the meantime, the NDP is left vulnerable to United Conservative Party criticism.

“(Kenney) is going to question the competence of the NDP government to manage the economy and taxpayer dollars,” she said. “He’s going to have a lot of room to play.”

Notley will be waiting to see whether Ottawa will move to launch an appeal of the court’s decision, and whether the premier moves on the carbon tax in the meantime is something that experts say is still unclear. But part of the justification for the carbon tax was the idea that it provided the “social licence” for getting the pipeline built, which has now been called into question.

“Carbon tax plus no pipeline is a clear indication of failure on a major government priority,” Stewart said.

Mount Royal University political science professor Keith Brownsey said the situation with the pipeline couldn’t come at a worse time for Ottawa.

“The federal government is burdened right now with negotiating with the United States on NAFTA ... and it’s got this mess on its hands,” he said.

As the election approaches, Stewart said this week’s developments are likely to make the province’s political landscape increasingly polarized from this point forward.

“Partiesother than the UCP and New Democrats are not looking terribly relevant — I think it’s going to be either for or against the government,” he said.

Now that Notley has made her move, Williams said that while Albertans shouldn’t necessarily count her and her party out for an election that’s still nine months away, the campaign is bound to be an uphill battle.

“Notley is already facing a steep climb to re-election in the spring, and that hill just got way steeper.”

Madeline Smith is a reporter/photographer with StarMetro Calgary. Follow her on Twitter: @meksmith

More from The Star & Partners

LOADING

Copyright owned or licensed by Toronto Star Newspapers Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or distribution of this content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Toronto Star Newspapers Limited and/or its licensors. To order copies of Toronto Star articles, please go to: www.TorontoStarReprints.com