People are now taking The Donald somewhat at his word, at least for the time being.

But even with this latest turn, the notion that the Trumpster is simply not that interested in being president of the world’s greatest superpower – with all the boredom that entails – makes you wonder whether he will last the next four years.

Add to that his age, and the fact that a good portion of Americans must wish somebody would take a shot at him, and this makes for an ideal forecasting topic.

What are the chances that Donald Trump will complete his first term as president of the United States?

With a new leadership contest in which Owen Smith takes on Corbyn for the leadership title, the possibility of the flat-capping wearing hard leftist cementing his control over the party seems to provide Labour MPs with a good opportunity to leave.

But will a split happen under the leadership of Corbyn, and before the next general election?

The result mostly crept up on the political, media and corporate establishments (not to mention the bookies), who had thought that Britons would cleave to the perceived safety of the status quo, even as polls in the week prior to the vote signalled otherwise.

Since the outcome was revealed on June 23rd many have predicted that it could be undone by legal or political shenanigans. The lawyer David Allen Green has even claimed that Article 50, the legal mechanism for Britain quitting the EU, might never be invoked.

All of which leaves an obvious question: After the referendum result, is Britain actually going to trigger Article 50 and leave the EU? And will it do it by 2020, the year the next general election is scheduled for?