TIPS FOR THE 2015 GRAND NATIONAL

We have plenty of tips for the big race…

Who Will Win?

Who will win the 2015 Crabbies Grand National? It’s the question we’re all asking, and without the aid of a crystal ball or a time machine we’re all forced to study the form, statistics and trends to help us find the winner.

Last year I predicted big runs from Balthazar King and Double Seven, who finished second and third behind Pineau De Re and I should point out that they were 33/1 and 40/1 respectively when I first tipped them. So those who took the early price made a few quid and hopefully I will be able to do the same again this year.

Grand National winners, and those who place, generally fall into certain trends. I look at those trends and rule out those who don’t quite fit the criteria although I always tip one or two crazy outsiders who have the potential to defy the odds.

Age

Weight

Only 2 winners have carried 11st 3lb or more in the last 20 years.

Experience

Runners with previous Aintree experience usually do well.

NIGHT IN MILAN

Has returned a win or a place in 13 of his 18 chase starts, a solid and consistent jumper who frequently carries more than he has been given for the Grand National and the right age statistically so could be there or thereabouts on the day.

40/1

ALVARADO

Finished a worthy 4th in the 2014 National, despite initially not even making the cut. Could do very well in 2015 as he will carry an ideal weight, is experienced over the fences, has previously placed and is the statistically the right age.

20/1

BALTHAZAR KING

Second in the 2014 Grand National and based on that performance you’d expect him to go close again. Raised a few pounds by the handicapper for the 2015 renewal but that shouldn’t be a major concern for this smart chaser. Despite the short odds each-way punters could still see a profit if they back the King.

12/1

SOLL

Ran in the 2013 Grand National to finish 7th so can get around the fences and go the distance. Moved from Jo Hughes to David Pipe in 2014 and has had two runs under his new trainer both of which he has won at Exeter and Newbury in February 2015 so on form and with a very decent weight, this could be his year.

16/1

More Tips

You don’t have to follow our tips, below you can see which horses other pundits are tipping for the big race.

STEVE MULLINGTON

SPRING HEELED
GODSMEJUDGE
PINEAU DE RE
NIGHT IN MILAN

NO TIPS YET

NO MORE TIPS YET
NO MORE TIPS YET
NO MORE TIPS YET
NO MORE TIPS YET

Finding A Winner

Here you can read a little more about how we narrow down the field of runners to find a potential winner. That’s not to say that finding the winner is easy, the race still remains one of the most open contests in sport. But with the application of statistics and trends we can discount runners who don’t fit into the historical winners profile. Usually this leaves use with a shortlist of 10 or fewer horses who have the ‘right stuff’ to win at Aintree.

Use the tabs above to find out what you should be looking for.

Don’t forget that Paddy Power are paying five places on each way bets plus a £20 free bet for new customers – click here.

Age

The first criteria is the Runners age. The Aintree Grand National fences require a level of maturity from the horses that usually comes with age and experience. So first off, eliminate all of those horses that are younger than nine or older than 11 years of age. In the last 20 years 17 of the winners have come from that age group.

Weight

The handicap system is designed to give every horse a fair crack at winning the race, good horses will carry more weight than those perceived to have less ability, historically horses carrying over 11 stone 3 pounds have struggled to overcome this handicap. Only two horse in the last 20 years have managed it, they were Neptune Collonges in 2012 and Don’t Push It in 2010.

In fact, 14 of the last 20 winners have weighed between 10-06 and 11-01 so bare that in mind when you’re trying to reduce your selections.

Aintree Factor

It really does help if the horse you have backed has previously run and done well at Aintree, preferably over the Grand National Fences. So whether they’ve run the race in the past or taken part in the Becher Chase or the Topham Chase, if they’ve successfully navigated the course and finished the race then it proves they have the jumping ability to make it around again.

Form

When it comes to form, you need to look closely at how a horse has been preforming for the last couple of seasons. Those who constantly fall, unseat their riders or refuse need to be taken out of the equation. The 2014 winner, Pineau De Re had only fallen once in the two years prior to his big win and had never pulled up, refused or unseated his jockey at any point in his entire career.

Battlegroup, on the other hand, had Refused and Pulled-Up twice in his three races immediately prior to the National. So it was no surprise when he refused to race in the 2014 Grand National. He planted his feet at the starting line and wouldn’t budge! A huge disappointed for all his backers and with just a little research you can avoid backing weaker prospects like him.