The world faces 10 risk factors in 2020: China’s top think tank

Source:Global Times Published: 2020/5/24 12:48:36

A trader works at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, the United States, on Aug. 14, 2019. U.S. stocks closed remarkably lower on Wednesday, as persisting fears over an imminent recession struck a blow to the already-dampened investor sentiment. The Dow plunged 800.49 points, or 3.05 percent to 25,479.42, marking the largest daily decline of the year so far. The S&P 500 decreased 85.72 points, or 2.93 percent, to 2,840.60. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 242.42 points, or 3.02 percent, to 7,773.94. Photo:Xinhua

Global economic slump and rising international trade and technology conflict are the potential risks facing the world in 2020 amid the raging coronavirus pandemic, according to a report issued by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a major government think tank.

In the report released on Saturday, CASS predicted the top10 risks that may have a major negative impact on the world.

These 10 risk factors include global economy recession, escalation of international trade conflict, risks of political and even military confrontation between China and the US over the Taiwan question and the South China Sea, arms race triggered by US government's abolishing "The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty," new round of turmoil in the Middle East, tussle between India and Pakistan, rising tension on the Korean Peninsula, global social unrest, supply crisis in international crude oil market; and instability in Britain and the European Union caused by UK's exit from EU.

The Report pointed out that the Sino-US relations are shifting from "half competition and half cooperation" to the current strategic rivalry between the two superpowers.

From the perspective of the international political system, the changes are rooted in the structural changes in the relations between China and the US, which reshapes the US' perception of the so-called "threats from China".

It predicted that with the US presidential election drawing nearer now, and no matter which political party in US takes the White House, the US' general trend of comprehensively containing China in economic, political, security, and ideological fields is unlikely to change.

It also predicted that in 2020, the world economy will struggle in a quagmire. The strategic competition between the US and China will not be eased by the signing of the phase-one trade agreement between the two, and the global economy will enter an era of ultra-low interest rates.

The escalation of friction in the field of science and technology may lead to the restructuring of value chains and technological development paths between Chinese and US technology companies, which is likely to bring about changes in the global value chain and the world's scientific and technological research and development landscape.