000
AXUS73 KUNR 081456
DGTUNR
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
800 AM MDT THU DEC 8 2016
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...
SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN OCTOBER
AND NOVEMBER HAVE REINTRODUCED AREAS OF SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. SOME OF
THESE AREAS HAVE EXPERIENCED THESE CONDITIONS SINCE MAY. RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES HAVE CAUSED THE GROUND TO FREEZE; THEREFORE, ANY
MELTING SNOW WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME IMPROVING SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DROUGHT PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WINTER.
SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN SOUTH DAKOTA INCLUDE WESTERN
HARDING, NORTHWESTERN BUTTE, MOST OF CUSTER, NORTHERN FALL RIVER,
NORTHERN OGLALA LAKOTA, EASTERN PENNINGTON, SOUTHEASTERN MEADE,
SOUTHWESTERN HAAKON, AND WESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES. SEVERE (D2)
DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVER MOST OF WESTON COUNTY, FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CROOK, AND A SMALL AREA OF EAST-CENTRAL CAMPBELL COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. MODERATE (D1) DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVERED THE
REST OF CROOK, WESTON, AND EASTERN CAMPBELL COUNTIES IN WYOMING. IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, MODERATE (D1) DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVERED THE
REST OF HARDING, BUTTE, CUSTER, FALL RIVER, OGLALA LAKOTA, JACKSON,
HAAKON, PENNINGTON, AND MEADE COUNTIES AS WELL AS MOST OF PERKINS,
WESTERN ZIEBACH, LAWRENCE, NORTHWESTERN BENNETT, AND WESTERN
MELLETTE COUNTIES. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) CONDITIONS COVERED THE REST
OF THE AREA.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
* THE LONG TERM DRYNESS HAS REDUCED FORAGE, WITH MOST PASTURE
CONDITIONS RATED BETWEEN POOR AND GOOD.
* STOCK PONDS AND DUGOUTS ARE LOW, WHICH CONTINUES TO LIMIT WATER
FOR CATTLE AND OTHER ANIMALS.
* DRY FUELS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SEVERAL WILDFIRES THIS YEAR.
* THE RECENT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF SNOW
COVER IN SOME AREAS HAVE CAUSED THE GROUND TO FREEZE DEEPER THAN
USUAL FOR DECEMBER.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF 2016 HAVE BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE. RAINFALL HAS
VARIED WITH MAY AND JUNE BEING EXTREMELY DRY, SPOTTY AREAS OF BELOW-
AND ABOVE-AVERAGE RAINFALL IN JULY, AVERAGE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE AMOUNTS
IN AUGUST, NEAR-AVERAGE IN SEPTEMBER, AND BELOW-AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION IN OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC OCEAN HAVE BEEN BELOW AVERAGE, INDICATING WEAK LA NINA
CONDITIONS. THE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) SUGGESTS LA NINA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FEBRUARY. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS LA NINA WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED, WITH ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS FAVORED FOR THE SPRING.
THE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER IS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
THE WINTER OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY INDICATES A GREATER
CHANCE FOR BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION. FOR DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY, AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S WITH AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TEENS. AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME IS AROUND AN INCH
ON THE PLAINS WITH TWO TO THREE INCHES IN THE BLACK HILLS AND BEAR
LODGE MOUNTAINS.
NEXT ISSUANCE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN JANUARY, UNLESS
CONDITIONS CHANGE SOONER.
&&
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA`S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL
INFORMATION, UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA), STATE
AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS, AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA-LINCOLN. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM THE NWS AND FEDERAL AVIATION
ADMINISTRATION OBSERVING SITES, STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES, UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, BUREAU OF
RECLAMATION, AND THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT...
MELISSA SMITH
SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
300 EAST SIGNAL DRIVE
RAPID CITY SOUTH DAKOTA 57701
605-341-9271
MELISSA.SMITH@NOAA.GOV
RELATED WEB SITES...
U.S. DROUGHT PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
SOUTH DAKOTA CLIMATE AND WEATHER INFORMATION...
HTTP://CLIMATE.SDSTATE.EDU/CLIMATE_SITE/CLIMATE.HTM
WYOMING WATER AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...
HTTP://WWW.WRDS.UWYO.EDU/
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
RIVER AND RESERVOIR INFORMATION
NWS - HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS
USGS - HTTP://WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER
USBR - HTTP://WWW.USBR.GOV/GP/LAKES_RESERVOIRS
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
BLACK HILLS FIRE RESTRICTIONS...
HTTP://BLACKHILLSFIRERESTRICTIONS.COM
$$