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Cameron Hurst , Chief Investment Officer

Equium Capital Management

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Market. There are better markets in the world than Canada right now. His global strategy allocation strategy looks at where he wants to be invested. The oil patch is really struggling and there is a major capital flight out of there. People are saying the GDP is quite strong, so of course we have the Bank of Canada with back to back hikes. He would take the other side of the argument and would support the idea that there is a policy error underway right now. The Bank of Canada has seen a huge rally in the Cdn$, which takes the air out of exports. A 2nd hike in rates would be a mistake. The stronger Cdn$ makes it a great time to buy foreign assets right now. France and India both look great to him. The US has some good pockets as well.

Today is the launch of their new Iphone. It is possible there is a two-tiered approach happening. It is a very high price for a new phone, the A8+, and the X, which is new. If you set the price point of X at a higher level, there are a couple of things that can happen by splitting that market and fitting it into 2 pools. There is the classic trade of selling Apple once it reaches the product launch. How do they defend the new product. Maybe they are coming up with a strategy where this is early technology with augmented reality. If they can produce the X version at a very high price point by demonstrating the power of the technologies that they have, but ultimately they are probably going to work out a few kinks, needing more powerful processors to get it humming. They can then get that into a mass model, maybe at a later stage. If they can just show any number of different commercial applications, there is a big addressable market. If they can show that it may maintain the multiple, get the product launched at a more reasonable price point, it is possible they can skate along a pretty thin line.

This stock has really done well. It has been a great performer this year, relative to tech and relative to the market. It’s an easy one to look at and think they’ve got so much going for them. They’ve got the services they are building out and trying to get revenue to $50 billion by 2020, so they are diversifying. Has great momentum. He would be cautious. The multiple is getting pretty full. He would hold it into this product launch and then assess it in a day or 2, and see how they do.

They became a much more diversified company than they used to be. Then they are going to bricks and mortar grocers. His company’s research has done a really good analysis and you are in for a bumpy road. Their whole MO now is to lean it up, take the price down, and ultimately invest in the franchise which gives them a point-of-sale and a whole bunch of infrastructure that they needed and wanted. But to beat out Kroger, Safeway and Target, they are going to price competitively, and those guys are going to have a really tough time. This is going to take some time as they have some pretty fierce competition in the grocery space. It is probably a little pricey right now, but the model and the franchise is absolutely stellar.

He likes this because it is a domestically focused franchise, good at what they do, and great capital levels. Regulations are taking a softer tone now which helps. Where you have to be cautious on this is the yield curve. Right now, if you look at the spread between the 10 year and the 3-month Treasury yields, it gives you a reasonable proxy for a net interest margin improvement or shrinkage, and this is ultimately going to be a little tough for this company. However, he doesn’t see a lot else to worry about.

(A Top Pick April 6/17. Down 15%.) This one hasn’t been as positive as he would like. It turned after the 1st quarter earnings. The 1st shot across the bow was the cable guys talking about cord cutting, and then ultimately ad spending team and a little bit weaker than what he was expecting.

This has an interesting trajectory right now. It’s been a very volatile stock. Their recent earnings were a beat. He has some pretty cautious perspectives on OEMs, but the parts have held in OK. The chart shows a lot of volatility, and that doesn’t check his box. It’s in a subsector that he is comfortable with, but the volatility is too much. There are safer places to be.

(A Top Pick April 6/17. Up 22%.) They are doing everything right. They are still only 5% of global ads spending. Phenomenal ad growth and have a long way to go. Had a great run, but definitely have more avenues to continue to grow on.

This has a 4% yield, and any time a normal equity gets up into that high yielding category, people want to ask questions, especially when the fundamentals are coming under pressure. They went through a portfolio rationalization and really turned the ship around. Sold off a bunch of businesses and focused in on some of the core parts. Where do they go from here? He doesn’t see any strong drivers to get this going. There are greener pastures than this one.

About 50% of its franchises are based in hepatitis C. You really have to be careful, because this franchise is slowing. They have 2 prospective years of negative earnings growth, which is a huge headwind. Value this on its long-term cash flows. There are 2 things to consider. 1.) How sustainable are they. If that continues, then you have a leg to stand on. 2.) If you have falling rates, that is good for valuation. The problem is, we are probably going to have flat to rising rates, and Pharma M&A is a bit of a dice roll. He doesn’t buy into the story, and would prefer the Spdr S&P Biotech ETF (XBI-N). You could be a little more conservative using the iShares D J Medical Devices ETF (IHI-N).

In Q1 there was a lot of positive momentum behind the stock. However, the bloom has now come off that rose a little. Technically it has broken down. You have to climb through a couple of major resistance levels if you want to reclaim and then ultimately set higher highs. Kind of a single digit grower and ultimately, they have a pretty tough row. He would prefer something else.

(A Top Pick April 6/17. Up 10%.) This is in the machinery space. It has done pretty well. Pulled back a little, and he continues to be very positive on it. They do a lot of HVAC work, energy efficiency and consumption management and water flow.

Defence is expensive. This ETF is aerospace and defence. If you want to be more precise, Raytheon (RTN-N) is a good way, which is focused on cyber defence, missile defence, has the most international sales exposure. He likes the theme of defence spending. You take out some of the idiosyncratic risks by buying this one.

He really likes that this is well diversified. Each bucket tends to work pretty well. They have a huge consumer brand. He really likes the stability and cash flow that devices can provide. A high single digit grower, not shooting the lights out, but that is what he likes. He is positive on this.

Getting to the point where it is very expensive in the context of semiconductors and technology. The semiconductors as a group have broken. Tech has gone on to make new highs. If you have been invested in the stock, and made some good money, he would have been out of this a while ago. He would lock in profits at this time.

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