Pages

Sunday, April 28, 2013

The Odds Are...(Semi-finals)

With less than two weeks until Eurovision itself really kicks off in Malmo, its time to have a look at what the odds are like are there any really good bets out there? Has a bookie failed to keep their site prefectly up to date with the latest Eurovision news? Anything is possible.

Semi Final 1
Semi-Final 1 interestingly contains some songs that are very well positioned for a win or certainly a top 10 finish however it is also characterised by some of the poorest songs in this years contest.

Most interestingly in this market, though Paddy Power have Denmark as the favourite to win the contest outright they think it has a lower probability of winning semi 1. This is certainly an anomaly, though in recent years it is by no means sure that the winner of a semi-final will win the contest outright. For people who are looking for a fairly sure bet this is probably one of the better offers you will find this year.

For people who are super-prudent each way gamblers, it is interesting to note that the top four countries on Paddy Power all are drawn in the first half of semi-final one. Probability would suggest that surely one of the second half will make the top 3. Belarus is 10/1 which would make a fine each way bet as indeed is Serbia (14/1).

For those who like to qualify betting whether to drown their sorrows even if a song does qualify or whether the song is just worth that punt. Croatia seems like the most likely of the lesser songs to qualify for the final so at 8/11 it's a good bet. As a fan I do notice that the odds of any song qualifying are very, very short this year which shows how close a semi-final will be.

Semi Final 2
As keen fans of the contest will know the winner of this years' contest will more than likely come from semi-final 1, however there are still some interesting bets available for fans.

If your a Margaret Berger fan Norway are just 7/4 on Paddy Power, which, given that they are in the last slot in the second semi-final, makes them well worth a bet. Azerbaijan, at 5/1 may also suit the risk taker, particularly given that they are in the graveyard that is the fourth slot in the semi-final.

Semi-final 2 is much harder to call than semi-final 1, so it could go any way. If your not a risk taker, I would not recommend betting on semi 2.

As regards qualification I would say Finland at 1/3 is well worth a short and is fairly undervalued at this price. Switzerland also could just squeeze over the line so at 10/11 it may well be worth a shot.