The Polling Report for November 4, 2018

CNN issues its final election “forecasts” of the midterm election campaign. And it is a pretty wide range that tells you pretty much nothing.

House forecast: Democrats will win 226 seats (and the House majority) while Republicans will win just 209 seats. A Democratic win of 203 seats and 262 seats is within the margin of error.

Senate forecast: Republicans will hold 52 seats (and maintain control of the Senate) next Congress while Democrats will hold just 48. Anything between Republicans holding 48 seats and 56 seats is within the margin of error.

A new CBS News poll finds that 93% of voters in battleground congressional districts say their vote in this midterm election matters just as much, if not more, than in a presidential race. In fact, 34% of Democrats say this year’s election matters more than a presidential one, while just 16% of Republicans agree.

“That seven-point margin, which is in line with other polls taken in the past two weeks, puts Democrats roughly within range of what they probably will need in the overall national vote for the House to capture a majority from the Republicans, based on calculations from previous midterm campaigns.”