Fast-Track Trade Bill’s Path in Congress Gets Bumpier

Opposition from the Senate’s top Democrat to the White House’s trade agenda has highlighted a broader reality: The quest for new overseas deals has a diminishing number of friends in Congress.

In the 12 years since the legislature last granted a president special trade powers, Capitol Hill has changed significantly. Republicans, especially many tea-party-backed newcomers, are increasingly leery on the trade front and reluctant to grant President Barack Obama negotiating powers known as fast track. The Senate also has lost many of its strongest pro-trade voices, and another—Max Baucus (D., Mont.)—is leaving the Senate.

And within his own party, Mr. Obama may have to rally support without backup either from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who announced his opposition last week, or Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the top Democrat in the House, who has expressed reservations.

Political obstacles in Washington are threatening to derail two sets of trade negotiations—the near-complete talks with Asian-Pacific nations, including Japan, and early-stage ones with the European Union.

“If the president is going to go after something that’s this politically difficult, he’s got to use a 2-by-4,” said Bill Brock, former U.S. trade representative in the Reagan administration.

Smooth passage of overseas trade negotiations has depended for decades on fast-track powers. The authority allows an administration to submit trade deals to Congress for an up-or-down vote, without amendments, and it can reassure U.S. negotiating partners of broad Washington support.

The previous fast-track bill, in 2002, passed the House by three votes. That authority expired in 2007, but a bill introduced in January would reauthorize fast-track status for global trade negotiations for four years.

Mr. Obama’s top trade adviser, Michael Froman, acknowledged the legislative challenges. “When I’m in town and Congress is in town, I’m spending basically every day up there, and have been for months,” Mr. Froman said.

In 2002, 27 of 222 House Republicans voted “no” on whether to give President George W. Bush fast-track authority. This time, some 60 House Republicans might oppose the legislation, according to estimates from two people following the matter.

Republicans have traditionally backed trade measures, trumpeting what they say are broad benefits to business and the economy, while Democrats have tended to be more cautious, amid warnings from key union backers that expanded trade can mean jobs are shipped overseas.

House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) has asked for the support of at least 50 House Democrats to move a bill to the floor, suggesting he is concerned about broad defections in his party.

Trade votes are usually easier in the Senate, but Mr. Reid’s move to break with Mr. Obama last week showed that more Democrats are cooling to the legislation. Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island are among at least seven Senate Democrats who oppose fast-track power and hold seats that once belonged to lawmakers who voted in favor.

“The trade model isn’t working,” said Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D., Ohio), who confronted Mr. Obama at a Tuesday meeting with House Democrats about the process for approving trade deals. She is urging a “pro-American” trade policy that would make sure “we have more exports going out than imports coming in.”

The Democratic skeptics are joined by a growing number of Republicans wary of international entanglements, including newer lawmakers like Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky.

The current House attitude toward fast track is similar to when President Bill Clinton, in 1998, failed to win renewal in an election year amid opposition from recently elected Republicans and Democrats not afraid to break with the president.

“My guess is you’re going to see a pretty weird coalition at the end of the day” on fast track if it passes, said Wisconsin Rep. Ron Kind, who leads the House’s New Democrats group, which supports fast track.

Often the business community can kick in last-minute support to help push through contentious trade legislation. David Thomas, vice president for trade policy at the Business Roundtable, said, “We think there’s a window of opportunity in the first six months of this year” for passing fast track.