NHL Marketwatch Edition 6 2011-12

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NHL Sports Marketwatch, where the team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace.

Overall Record= 3-2, +1.98 unitsHockey can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The plus odds are a reason that NHL moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win and therefore overvalue winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally win less than 50%, but the plus odds payoff makes it a profitable investment.Recapping Last Week

Last week’s NHL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Nashville Predators, picked up a 3-1 victory at home against the high-flying Washington Capitals. The Predators scored a trio of third period goals in support of star goaltender Pekka Rinne, who turned aside 39 of the 40 shots he faced. With the victory, NHL Marketwatch improves to 3-2 (+1.98 units) on the season.

Toronto Maple Leafs +145 over Tampa Bay Lightning

With the NHL season now in full swing, the Toronto Maple Leafs (11-8-2, 24 pts) invade the St. Pete Times Forum to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning (9-8-2, 20 pts), with the puck being dropped at 7:30 PM ET.

After starting the season a blazing hot 7-2-1, the Leafs have fallen off a bit as of late, going 4-6-1 over their past eleven games. However, led by Phil Kessel (16-13-29) and Joffrey Lupul (10-15-25), the Leafs remain one of the most prolific offense clubs in the league and boast the 8th best goals per game average (2.9) and 4th best power play (21.3%) in the NHL.

Conversely, the Lightning have struggled to keep the puck out of their net all season, ranking 21st overall in opponents’ goals per game (3.1). In addition, their goaltending has been spotty as well, with 42-year-old Dwayne Roloson (6-5-1, 3.16 GAA, .898 SV %) and journeyman Mathieu Garon (3-3-1, 2.80 GAA, .909 SV %) swapping starts seemingly each game.

According to Sports Insights’ NHL Betting Trends, Toronto opened at +132 (Pinnacle) and is currently receiving just 38% of moneyline wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.

Teams

Market %

Sprtsbk.com

BetUS

Carib

WagerWeb

5Dimes

SIA

TORONTOTAMPA

38%
62%

23%
77%

38%
62%

33%
67%

N/A
N/A

46%
54%

45%
55%

The heavy, mostly one-sided public action on Tampa has pushed the moneyline up to +145 on Toronto (Pinnacle).

Despite the lopsided betting, a positive Smart Money play has been triggered on Toronto (+140) by Cata/VegasVic (7-6, 53%, +3.35 units) which has historically been one of the more successful NHL Betting Systems in recent years.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how themoneyline betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

We are fading the home favorite Lightning and going with the upstart Maple Leafs +145 (Pinnacle) to pick up the big road win and keep NHL Marketwatch on the winning track.Games to Watch (3-2, +1.98 units)Toronto Maple Leafs +145