WinningEdge Blog

Wayne Root: Can Denver Shock Carolina in Super Bowl 50?

I was going to save this discussion until later in the week. Hey, WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is widely known as THE KING OF UPSETS because I've won more documented upset calls than any other handicapper in history! Of course I'm going to at least think about the possibility that a Super Bowl underdog can win outright.

But, I've decided to move this up to Monday because NOBODY seems to be talking about Denver having much of a chance. The early line keeps going UP, even though many in the media were initially surprised Carolina was as high as -4.5 or -5 to beat Peyton Manning. As I write this Monday morning Las Vegas time, the line is now -6!

I obviously won't post my Super Bowl selection in a free web article. That isn't fair to paying clients. It's true that I do release underdogs a lot more often than favorites. But, you all know I had Alabama (-10) over Michigan State big back in the college playoffs. That won 38-0. If I see a blowout coming...my clients and I will be betting the blowout.

The point of today's article is to argue with the mindset that Denver has no chance here. A lot of the "square" public has fallen in love with Cam Newton, particularly after he won money for them in the NFC half of the brackets. Many of those same bettors loved New England over Denver...and appear to believe that Peyton Manning was lucky to win that game. They figure there's no way he'll be lucky twice in a row.

I would strongly suggest that you STOP thinking about Peyton Manning when you handicap this game. The Denver Broncos aren't here because of Manning. They're here in spite of Manning. Denver has obviously had a championship caliber defense all season long. That's true whether you're looking at yards-per-play allowed, or high impact plays like sacks and takeaways. You get the sense that Denver got tired of losing to Seattle and learned how to play defense that way (true for both Super Bowl 50 teams actually given the past few seasons).

Denver just won the AFC Championship with its defense. They can win the league championship that way too. Don't forget that John Elway finally broke through to win a Super Bowl in his later years thanks to defense and the running game. He cut down on his high-risk passing approach to swing the percentages in his favor. He's running the franchise now...with another aging quarterback who needs to be a "game manager" rather than a superstar.

Can Denver's defense lead the team to victory as an underdog? They just did it against Tom Brady, who has a lot more postseason experience than Carolina quarterback Cam Newton.

And, that brings me to my second key point. Cam Newton may not be quite ready yet to win a Super Bowl. A lot of star players need to get there and lose before they get there and win. He's definitely an amazing talent having an amazing season. But, he's also the type to get flustered when things aren't going his way. He's more mature now than he was a few years ago. Maybe he's not as mature as he needs to be.

Cam Newton will be dealing with...

*The most pressure he's ever confronted*Possibly the best defense he's seen all season*An unfamiliar stadium known for having a difficult field surface

You want to tell me that Cam Newton's a sure thing to keep his composure amidst all of that?

I'm sure everyone agrees that Newton's "ceiling" is much higher than Manning's right now in terms of impact on this game's scoreboard. But it's also easy to visualize the game getting away from him if things don't go his way in the first half.

Denver can win this game. Denver money will eventually be coming in from Vegas sharps if the line goes up any higher (some starts to come in at the six). If someone tells you that there's no way Denver can win this game...remind them of everyone saying the same thing about the Patriots game two Sundays ago.

Personally, I won't be finalizing my Super Bowl pick until the pointspread has more firmly settled into place this weekend. If I have a PINNACLE play on Denver, it will be because of many of the reasons I just listed. If I lay the points with Carolina, it will be because I'm concerned that Denver's offense may not be able to get anything on the board on what might be a sloppy field. You'll recall that I faded Michigan State because its offense was going to be in so much trouble against Alabama's great defense. A lot of similarities here! You longtime readers know that I want to back underdogs who can score points. I have a few days to decide whether or not Denver's sometimes shaky offense can score points vs. this great Carolina defense in a stadium that's hindered more than a few offenses this season. Click here to check out my Super Bowl and basketball program.

I'll see you again Wednesday to talk about that big UCLA/USC rematch in college basketball. There are a lot of interesting storylines in the Pac 12 this season. And, THAT game will be one of the big February highlights right out of the gate. We'll talk more about the Super Bowl on Friday.

I'm the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the Las Vegas Walk of Fame. That's because I win BIG GAMES in ALL SPORTS and have been doing so for decades. It's time for you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!