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Breakout star Segura unlikely to repeat 2013 success

Jean Segura of the Milwaukee Brewers has been one of this season's breakout fantasy stars, producing first-round stats at a fraction of the cost. But he may have trouble carrying over his success into 2014.

It is not often that a player comes out of nowhere to rank among the top stars in the game. It's less often that the player manages to sustain that performance across multiple seasons.

Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout broke the mold over the past two years -- though he had always been considered an elite prospect. But another player has risen to an unexpected elite level in 2013.

Jean Segura of the Milwaukee Brewers is currently hitting .310 with 12 home runs and 36 stolen bases. That's good enough to earn $32 in Rotisserie value, ranking him eighth among all major league batters. That's equivalent to a first-round draft pick in most fantasy leagues.

The question now is, can he sustain that into 2014?

The 23-year-old shortstop was scouted as having moderate pop and excellent speed.

He was a top prospect in the Angels system and a key component of the deal that brought Zack Greinke to Anaheim last summer.

He batted .264 after the trade but a .343 September may have presaged how 2013 would begin.

Segura landed the full-time shortstop job by hitting .367 with five stolen bases in March, then proceeded to tear it up in April and May. By June 1, he had amassed eight home runs, 15 stolen bases and a .354 batting average.

But there were early signs that the stats might be exceeding his skill.

During his early surge, Segura posted a .380 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). That level is about 50 points higher than the upper limits of sustainability and 80 points higher than he had posted in 2012.

His home run-to-fly ball (HR/FB) ratio was a lofty 20%, a level reserved for baseball's top power hitters.

Segura continued padding his numbers through June, wrapping up the first half with 11 homers and 24 steals. But his batting average started to slip, as he hit only .277 that month.

Since July 1, Segura has been a far less productive hitter.

In 159 at-bats, he's hit just one home run and his HR/FB rate has dropped to 3%. He is still stealing bases – 12 in the past six weeks – despite an on-base average that is 46 points lower than his first half level.

Segura has batted .277 during this time and his BABIP has regressed to .330. His expected average – based on his skills profile – has been only .256.

We often say that the true test of a young player's short-term potential is how he performs after the scouting reports circulate and the opposition has had a chance to adjust. Unless Segura experiences a late surge – a sign that he, too, can adjust – the odds are low for a strong 2014 follow-up.

The track record of the fantasy community is to overvalue current season performance. That means Segura's pre-draft value next spring may be somewhat inflated.

He may be earning first-round value now, but odds are his true value in 2014 will be closer to the third or fourth round.

Ron Shandler is the founder of BaseballHQ.com, a USA TODAY Sports Media Group property