Tropical Storm LOWELL (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 09 2008
LOWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION...THE MOST RECENT OF WHICH BEGAN AROUND 1400 UTC.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT BUT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT SINCE CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED TO
WEAKEN. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...INDICATIVE OF STABLE AIR...TO THE WEST OF LOWELL.
THIS...COUPLED WITH SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT AS TO WHETHER LOWELL WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT
REACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LOWELL
WEAKENING JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE
BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SINCE THE INTENSITY PROBABILITIES STILL
INDICATE A 26 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LOWELL WILL BE A TROPICAL STORM
AT LANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AFTER CROSSING THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHAT'S
LEFT OF LOWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. FORECAST
POINTS ARE GIVEN THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE
CYCLONE CAN SURVIVE THAT LONG.
LOWELL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED BURSTS OF CONVECTION...BUT A 12-18 HOUR AVERAGE
YIELDS 320/03. LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. IN FACT...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES
SUGGEST A NORTHWARD MOTION MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN. TRACK MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE
FASTEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE UKMET...ACTUALLY SHOWS LOWELL
REACHING BAJA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS
MODEL...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE BUT
IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 20.9N 113.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 21.7N 113.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 22.8N 112.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 23.9N 111.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 25.2N 110.6W 25 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W 20 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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