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Thursday, September 29, 2016

India avenges terror attacks with surgical strike. Now, what next?

Finally, the long-awaited avenging of
the Uri attack has taken place. Remember the the buzz on the social
media a few days ago? See my previous post.

The day's excitement, which began with
the news that the Prime Minister had cancelled a meeting to discuss
the status of the Most Favoured Nation status of Pakistan, has lasted
right up to the end of the day.

Instead of the meeting on the MFN
status, the PM chaired a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security
Affairs. At that time it was also announced that there were will be a
rare joint press conference by the MoD and MEA. There was immediate
speculation on what is going to be announced.

The announcement of the “surgical
operation” came at that press briefing by the DGMO Lt Gen Ranbir
Singh. (Surgical strike is a military operation aimed at hitting
their targets precisely with little or no collateral damage to
surrounding areas.) He said that the Indian troops crossed the Line
of Control and destroyed several launch pads. Many terrorists died,
and there were no casualties on the Indian side. When journalists
wanted to ask questions, it was announced that the officials won't
take any questions, and the press meet ended.

Officials seem to have briefed
journalists off the record; and through the afternoon a number of
details of the operation filtered out. At least 38 terrorists were
killed. Seven launch pads were destroyed. The troops went up to 6 km
inside the Pak-occupied Kashmir. And the operation began around 12.30
am and lated till around 4.30 am. In the night, more details of the
operation are emerging.

Pak reaction

Interestingly, Pakistan in its
reaction, said the Indian claim was a lie. “There was no surgical
strike. It was just a cross-border shelling in which two Pakistani
soldiers died,” is the gist of that reaction.

In a way that shows their “guilt”.
Because if they didn't have anything to hide, they would have reacted
saying, “India, without any provocation crossed the LoC, smashed
infrastructure resulting in many deaths.” Nothing of that sort.

In these days of rapid information
dissemination, it's difficult to hide anything. And wonder if the
people of Pakistan will believe their government's reaction that
nothing actually happened.

More surgical strikes?

I don't think there will be any
immediate major retaliation by the Pakistan defence forces. Because,
Pakistan isn't even saying that India conducted surgical strikes. So,
for what should they retaliate?

But Pakistan, terming last night
incident as only s cross-border shelling, says they will not brook any
further aggression. That is significant. Because, that is like a
warning to India. “Once it's okay, We will look the other way. But
if you are going to make this a habit, don't think we will keep
quiet,” That seems to be what they are meaning.

It will be naive on India's part to
assume that Pakistan will not hit back. That is why Indian defence
forces are at maximum alert; ready to take on even any surprise
retaliation.

The government sources are saying that this will
not be a one-off surgical strike. There will be a sustained bid to end
the cross-border infiltration and the terror that is flowing into
Jammu and Kashmir.

That means there is a change from in our policy from being a passive witness to an active combatant. It is only natural that there is such a change, as the moralistic high ground based on peace hasn't exactly brought
about any tranquility at all. It is only being seen as a weakness,
and capitalised on.

But in the long run, military strikes
can't actually solve any political or social issue. It can neutralize
a combative situation, and create a climate for a civilian agreement.
That's what Prime Minister Narendra Modi should finally aim at –
end this decades-old problem once and for all, using all means,
military and civilian.

3 comments:

Nice analysis. I welcome the fact that Indian Government has changed its policy from being a passive witness to an active combatant. But we will never know the real truth regarding military operations. India says they killed many terrorists and there was no casualty in their side. Pakistan says they killed many Indian soldiers and also captured live an Indian soldier by the name of Chandu Babulal Chohan.

Similar information from both sides. All our aircrafts returned to base safely.

Yes, SG. In military combat situations, all the facts will never come out. In addition to partial facts, there will also be cooked-up information.

Pakistan also should realise that the original Kashmir problem, has now metamorphosed into a different issue altogether, influenced by various geo-political developments that have happened in the past decade, especially 9/11, and subsequent events in Middle East.