The invasion of the Ukraine by Russia is sending a ripple effect through out Eastern Europe. With the prospects now for possible cold war starting all over again investors brace for sanctions against Russia. And with the already falling economy of the Ukraine, investors and business are bailing out as fast as they can.

During the next few years, the Ukraine economy will be pushed to its limits. Currently, the Ukraine desperately needs 30 billion in loans to survive, and with ousted former president Viktor Yanukovich having already pulled the country out from the European Union, and the new government wanting nothing to do with Russia, the government will be in dire straits.

The US State department has issued a travel warning urging Americans not to travel to the Ukraine. Tourism is a huge part of Ukraine economy. with hotels, airlines and restaurants depending on tourism. As these businesses cut back, the ripple effect in cities like Kiev, Odessa and Yalta will have devastating consequences on the economy. Just as when the housing market died in the US, the effects were felt world wide. Not only will Ukraine's economy continue to decline, but most of Western Europe's fragile economy will also feel the effects.

One industry that seems to thrive on the situation is the foreign bride market, A Foreign Affair operates four office in the Ukraine. Kenneth Agee the marketing director says, "In the last few weeks we have seen the biggest surge ever on women signing up. Not only have we seen the biggest surge, but we have seen the highest quality of women signing up; doctors, engineers, even some of Ukraine's most beautiful models, With the possibility of war looming over the horizon, American men are looking very desirable." A Foreign Affair 's new member Irina of Kiev says, "America is stable, American men have very good family values. These are important to Ukraine women; we want a good environment to raise our families. With Russian tanks rolling down our streets, I do not see a bright future here for starting a family.

The future does not look good for the Ukraine. Russia has no intention of letting Ukraine have complete independence. Most western Ukrainians have had a strong dislike for Russia for many generations, and will do what ever it takes to resist Russian influence or occupation. This being said, the country will have a long battle and many lines drawn in the sand, from serious economic sanctions to full out war. At this time, it looks like this struggle could go on for a decade or more.

What might interest some of our Ukrainian readers is that over the past weeks, Germany's chancellor Merkel has pushed back quite forcefully against Russia's Putin and his designs in Ukraine.

- Merkel criticized Putin repeatedly, telling him that EU-Ukraine relations were none of his business;

- her party, the CDU, chose Klitschko's party UDAR as official partner;

- German president Gauck (who has to consult the government over such decisions) declined an invitation to the opening ceremony of the Sotchi Olympic Games, citing human rights abuses in Russia and Russia's involvement "in Eastern Europe" as reasons;

- and her foreign secretary, Westerwelle, made a show of support at Maidan sq. in Kiev, alongside opposition leader Klitschko; amusingly, Putin than quipped that Mr Westerwelle (who is gay) only went there because he was attracted by the "hot bodies of the Klitschko brothers". LOL

Ruslana, Ukraine's winner of the 2004 Eurovision Song Contest, has cancelled her concert tour to Belgium. Instead, she joined the ranks of protesters on Kyiv's Independence Square, where DW met the activist."

"Despite the wintry weather, the demonstrators on the Maidan, or Independence Square, in central Kyiv are not going anywhere. Thousands of Ukrainians are sticking it out in the wind and the cold, staying overnight and singing songs while warming themselves at fires burning in steel barrels."

Read a well written NYTimes story why Ukraine's major industrial magnates are split between supporting EU integration and maintaining 'status quo'. Here is just a small part of it:

"On one side you have businessmen like Mr. Poroshenko, whose fortune was estimated by Forbes at $1.6 billion. He is typical of the older money here, people interested more in marketing their assets, whether through initial public offerings or attracting international partners, than grabbing quick profits.

"They were hoping that an affiliation with the European Union and its more stringent protections of property rights would protect their interests. They are also more open to a proposed loan from the International Monetary Fund that would require a reduction in government energy subsidies and structural overhauls, including revamping the judiciary.

"Mr. Poroshenko has been joined by Victor Pinchuk, the billionaire son-in-law of a former president, Leonid Kuchma, who on Wednesday joined several former Ukrainian presidents in signing a letter of support for the demonstrations. Ukraine’s wealthiest man, Rinat Akhmetov, is usually seen as a staunch backer of Mr. Yanukovich. But Mr. Akhmetov’s company, System Capital Management, issued a largely neutral statement saying Ukraine should seek integration with both Russia and Europe."

"Despite the wintry weather, the demonstrators on the Maidan, or Independence Square, in central Kyiv are not going anywhere. Thousands of Ukrainians are sticking it out in the wind and the cold, staying overnight and singing songs while warming themselves at fires burning in steel barrels."
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"Magnifique, mais ca c'est pas la guerre": winter will go on for three months, at least.
If songs would be enough to avoid frozing and/or hypothermia (and white death, eventually), maybe Hitler would have won the war...but...

Well, the Chinese have politely told Mr. Yanukovych that he's already had a $10 billion unpaid loan and this may be the last nail driven to his political coffin.

Chances are slim to none he and his government will survive in their current shape by the 2015 election. Neither will China nor Russia throw good money after bad in order to save Ukraine's thuggish president's dirty political derriere that is already on fire.
Watch and read this, please! http://english.cntv.cn/program/newsupdate/20131206/100085.shtml

"The documents signed today expand our economic cooperation. We have not yet calculated how much this will make up in terms of money, but we made some calculations earlier and saw that the matter is about some $8 billion in investments coming to the Ukrainian economy," Yanukovych said after signing a number of bilateral documents in Beijing on Thursday, quoted by Interfax.

You are out of control; your posts are actually counterproductive. A nervous breakdown is happening right in front of us. Well, this is what happens when someone’s bread income depends on the quantity of posts.

The “Orange” failure was financed by Soros, could you tell us who is financing this anti-democratic nonsense. Under the democracy rule you have to wait for the next election, I thought you are more educated than that.

Out of control ? What makes you think YOU need/can/should 'control' anything and everybody ? A typical VIELIKO-Russian mentality !
Its a voluntary team effort on our part. Getting under the skin of these immature KP = Kremlin Propaganda servants is both a pleasure and a duty.

Do you happen to know who is financing this bizarre campaign in Moscow media ?

"Moscow's propaganda campaign against the demonstrations in Kiev is often bizarre (see Children's toilet TV show drawn into Ukraine row), and now the Rossiya 24 news channel has turned to Vadim Zavodchenkov, a senior forecaster at the Fobos Weather Centre, for a climatic insight.

"Not for the first time has a sharp deterioration in the political climate in Ukraine coincided with the change in the seasons," he says, noting the 2004 Orange Revolution also started as winter set in."

It seems that General Frost works in Ukraine against Russia's interests again.
BTW, have you noticed the Kremlin-paid Russia-Direct ads on the Economist's website? It costs a FORTUNE, as the Economist is among the most expensive advertising venues. Putin must be really desperate.

I was right, out of control! You should know that TE is not the venue to do it. Who reads TE in Ukraine, 0.0001%? Providing free alcohol to masses will definitely do it; then you can control them with your little finger. Maybe even Soros will increase the dough.

Yanukovych is in Sochi inspecting Putin's Olympic Palace and sharing his dinner. Will Putin offer him a deal he cannot refuse ? Either way, Putin has painted himself into a corner. The world has learned a new lesson from Ukraine's opposition.

Depending on what has actually transpired at the long meeting with Putin in Sochi, Yanukovych may well be dethroned. The protests will continue, the government has been paralised and Yanukovych faces only bad choices.

It seems that General Frost works in Ukraine against Russia's interests again.
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"Against"? Let's talk about it in three months' time (even two...)..."Berkut" are an excess of zeal...
Poor boys...for what all of this?

Why buy Horilka if you have vodka (and beer, and...)?
Send any surplus (if you still have any at home -and it's doubtful, seeing what you write-) to the poor boys in Maidan: they badly need it (heating, y'know...)...
Or maybe Femen group will fit more, who knows...

Either way, Putin has painted himself into a corner. The world has learned a new lesson from Ukraine's opposition.
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Putin is not in a corner: he's sittin' on the riverbank...
Either the "orange revolution 2.0" will fail or not (and if not, Ukrainian economy will go nuts in a matter of months due to flood of foreign custom-free goods, outgunning of national productions and massive closing of firms), he will win. Without shooting a shell.
THe second way is just longer (and more painful)...

I think the romance of leaderless rebellion brewed on the idea of magical deliverance from evil rulers through euro integration, which is how I would summarize events in Kiev, has made many observers blind to the very simple truth. Ukraine is a society combining utterly different cultures that have been united into one polity relatively recently. While for one part of the country the values of modern Western civilization may look like an appealing choice, for the other, and I should add, very sizeable part of Ukraine these largely hedonistic values don’t look appealing at all. They have more affinity to traditional Orthodox values shared by many Slavic people, including Russians, Belarusians, Serbs, Bulgarians etc.
The point I am trying to make is very simple. Any revolution that tries to take power under the banners of a European choice is bound to lead to “a clash of civilizations” in Ukraine with Western and Eastern parts of the country fighting a bitter and senseless civil war. Any sensible politician who wants to wrestle Ukraine from thugs without losing half of its territory should find a different in kind rallying point for the protest movement. Moreover, the time for action must be such as to make that action legitimate. Presidential elections of 2015 will provide ample opportunities to legitimately contest powers that be. It must be done under the slogans that can be widely supported by the entire population regardless of their language or geography. It must also be done by a person/party who is capable to speak successfully to both East and West. The task of the opposition, therefore, should be to find/create that person/party and to formulate that kind of a unifying message between now and 2015. I am more than confident that the vast majority of Ukrainians will respond enthusiastically to a very simple message of bringing robber barons to justice, eliminating corruption in police, creating just and simple rules for economic life, protecting economically disadvantaged, etc.

Those "many Slavic people, including Russians" voted for Yanukovich in 2010 hardly can be described as civilized or even related to any kind of civilization. Also, if they are "Russians", they aren't Slavs by default.

The Slavs are an Indo-European ethno-linguistic group living in Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, North Asia and Central Asia, who speak the Indo-European Slavic languages, and share, to varying degrees, certain cultural traits and historical backgrounds. From the early 6th century they spread to inhabit most of Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Europe.[27] In addition to their main population center in Europe, some East Slavs (Russians) also settled later in Siberia[28] and Central Asia.[29] Part of all Slavic ethnicities emigrated to other parts of the world.[30][31] Over half of Europe's territory is inhabited by Slavic-speaking communities.[32] The worldwide population of people of Slavic descent is close to 350 million, making Slavs among the largest panethnicities in the world.
Modern nations and ethnic groups called by the ethnonym Slavs are considerably diverse both genetically and culturally, and relations between them – even within the individual ethnic groups themselves – are varied, ranging from a sense of connection to feelings of mutual hostility.[33]
Present-day Slavic people are classified into East Slavic (chiefly Belarusians, Russians and Ukrainians), West Slavic (chiefly Czechs, Poles, Slovaks and Wends, or Sorbs), and South Slavic (chiefly Bosniaks, Bulgarians, Croats, Macedonians, Montenegrins, Serbs and Slovenes).[34] For a more comprehensive list, see the ethnocultural subdivisions.
Unquote

The point is not to be more or less hedonistic. Everybody likes to have good times ("live like in Paris" -for those who don't know the "banlieues"...-...), orthodox values or not. The point is: a full-speed economic "integration" -without "compensation"- now as now is bad for Ukraine, whatever can happen tomorrow morning to Yanukovich. And the great satisfaction to get rid of him would not make easier to survive the surefire hardship this "integration" will carry, for at least a decade (as the "joy" -not so widely shared- to see the end of USSR did not compensate at all the doldrums of 90es for the russians -all the way round: go with the "nostalghia" blues...and the same thing could happen in "Kyiv"-).
Beware...

The strong anti-Yanukovych rhetoric of the article seems meant to cover how weak its argument really is:
- we have here protesters who want to overthrow democratically elected leaders
- we have here an EU that is repeating its errors in Yugoslavia and is again trying to drive wedges between countries that historically have been closely connected. Unfortunately for Brussels might makes right.

What a plain primitive nonsense. What a case of historic BULL-s. "Closely connected" by centuries of serfdom, decades of GULAGS, millions of victims of HOLODOMOR, etc. etc.
Some paid agents will write any BULL-S for THREE rubles.
Some need to spill their ignorance for the world to see.

I thought mud throwing was not part of a discourse here at the Economist. Concerning Mr Didomyk’s version of history where Ukraine is a conquered nation, I have to disagree. Ukrainians have always been part and parcel of a larger story called differently at different times as the Kiev Rus, the Russian Empire, and the USSR. Atrocities committed by the Bolsheviks, including Golodomor, affected not only Ukraine. They hit Cossacks of Kuban and Don, nomads of Kazakhstan and peasants of Volga. As to serfdom suffered by all Ukrainians, that is not entirely true either. Shortly after unification with Russia, all Ukrainian Cossack leaders became nobles (dvoriane), many settled in St. Petersburg and became part of Russian aristocracy, rank and file Ukrainian Cossacks remained free people fighting in many military campaigns as irregular cavalry; the Zaporozhian host joined Russian military efforts during many wars and eventually became a famous Kuban Host. As to the serfs, well, those who had been serfs under the Polish Republic (Rzeczpospolita) remained serfs under the Russian Empire. Please read Vyacheslav Lypynsky for a different interpretation of the history of Ukraine. It is a much more refreshing read compared to Mykhailo Hrushevsky.

Well, Lithuania was in a commonwealth with Poland for a few centuries, a Lithuanian prince became a Polish king and started the Jagiellonian dynasty there. Many Lithuanians became Polish aristocracy and so ion, and so forth.
Times change and, now, Ukraine's time has come, and there's nothing that can reverse the process. Ukraine has no future with Russia, at least with the current Putinland.

Mr. Polishchuk, mud throwing sometimes sticks less than condescending tone of your post and that of your reply. Being armed with facts is of course impressive upon first glance. However, as you yourself state, your facts are just as subjective as those of any of us, depedent on which history book we borrow them from. The bottom line is people in Ukraine want to feel like people- and a pro-Russian climate will never offer them such a luxury. Living in the West, it's easy for us to look from up-high and and say what should be done- surviving in the Ukrainian everyday life- like what those demostrators have to do everyday of their lives -gives them the right to choose what is being done.
I'll leave you with this- if you truly believe in the viability of your scenario for Ukrainians come 2015- then you know absolutely nothing about Ukraine or the mentality of it's people.

"Ukrainians have always been part and parcel of a larger story called differently at different times..."

Of course, every nation in history, under any rule, has been part of a larger story. The issue is how is that story presented and what exactly is meant under various historic terms. I am not going to be drawn into debate which history book is better except to say that Hrushevsky's contribution to history has not been surpassed so far. Nor is there any use in diverging this discussion by arguing where the Kremlin-ordered and implemented HOLODOMOR had the largest impact. Lazar Kaganovich, Stalin's right hand man, is responsible for the death of millions, irrespective of their nationalities. And GULAGS, Russia's original 'invention' operated for decades before Hitler's Buchenwald or Auschwitz, managed to swallow millions of all known nationalities.

I stand by my objections to the poster 'guest-lomswmm' criticism about ".. drive wedges between countries that historically have been closely connected".
First, anyone who wants to voice his opinion about the recent events in Yugoslavia must at the very least understand that Yugoslavia, as a state, had been a purely artificial post WWI creation with no common denominator. One needs to acknowledge that national, cultural, religious and linguistic differences were at the roots of animosity and violence between the former state components. To talk about the West 'driving wedges' between the Serbs, Croats, Slovenians and Bosnians, after several years of violent clashes and outright 'cleansing', is to be politically blind or deliberately misrepresenting the realities.

Second, to apply the same 'driving wedges' concept to the post-Soviet realities that define relationships of the now independent states, both in Europe and Asia, with Putin's Russia, is equally misleading at best. To use a stronger term, the 'wedge theory' is a deliberate revision of history of the last 22 years. The so-called "historic connection" of all former Soviet republics with Russia had ONE, and only one, denominator: colonial conquests. Imperial Russian conquest of the Caucasus and down to today's Iran, followed by the conquests of largely nomadic peoples of Central Asia, was Moscow's priority. It was comparable to Moscow's drive both south into Ukraine and Moldova, and west into central Europe occupying the Baltic nations, as well as the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and with it most of Ukrainian lands west of the Dnieper.

One needs to be naïve not to understand that Russia itself has driven a HUGE HISTORIC WEDGE between itself and ALL its neighbours. That's why Russia has no friends and allies (except for Abkhasia and South Ossetia). And with his current blackmail policies Putin continues to drive that wedge even deeper.

Russia is a unique phenomenon, as one of TE columnists described it "a dinosaur put on jet-powered roller blades". Its ethnic Russian population keeps dwindling dramatically, there's hardly any diaspora except for south-eastern Ukraine, its xenophobic society displays mentality of a besieged fortress with paralysing inability to introduce any significant reforms to modernise itself and its rulers still live in the Soviet era.
This combination of variables will lead it to either significant modernisation making it a normal, market-driven economy or a kind of military coup d'etat and external conflict.
It's also funny to read how many Russian idiots write that the West will go bankrupt and other garbage like that.
In recessionary periods in the western, market-driven economies production falls and demand for raw material and energy commodities falls significantly leaving export and resource-driven economies like Russian, Canadian or Australian almost dead in the water. Where will Russia sell and for how much its gas, oil and other commodities if the West goes bust? What will China do with its junk? Many people don't understand that global markets do exist and globalisation has gone way beyond a point of no return whether Russia and China like it or not.

Make your mind up, please; Plato, or Socrates?
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Socrates as reported by Plato (Socrates by himself, as far as I know, never systemitized his theories, and hardly wrote a line about them: what we know comes almost all through plato)

P.S. I said that before, and I will repeat again : Britain, with its anti-EU and anti-Eastern European immigration hysteria, is playing into the hands of Kremlin. indeed, why bother integrating into economic and political community, where you are going to be treated as a second class citizen?

How about switching the focus on more constructive events like the fact that this week Kyiv is hosting the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Ministerial Council and that the Secr.-General Lamberto Zanniyer was given assurances of Foreign Affairs Minister Leonid Kozhara that Ukraine respects the right to peaceful protests and that incidents that excessive force will be investigated. Germany's Foreign Minister Westerwelle, who is in Kyiv to attend the CSCE, spent his first day meeting with Vitali Klitschko and Arseniy Yatsenyuk and walking among the opposition supporters on the Independence Sqare . The high level of interest to the meeting forced the organizers to split foreign photographers and cameramen into groups letting them one by one into the meeting rooms. Opposition leaders Klichko and Yatseniuk held a meeting with Westerwelle behind closed doors, that lasted almost an hour. Westerwelle openly stated that the doors of the EU remains open to Ukraine. "Ukraine must be on board in Europe. We share a common history, common culture, common values. We want you to be our partners" .

Of course, don't expect any Russian media to report this. Instead, some faithful Kremlin-paid '3-rubel servant' will most likely comment on Putin's 'friendship' with Frau Merkel.

Of course, don't expect any Russian media to report this. Instead, some faithful Kremlin-paid '3-rubel servant' will most likely comment on Putin's 'friendship' with Frau Merkel.
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Oh, look at this...Russia Today has given the news just 5 minutes ago...
Or maybe I have overlooked the other editions of the news...

"NEW YORK (AP) — Dozens of current or former Russian diplomats and their spouses enjoyed luxury vacations and spent tens of thousands of dollars on concert tickets, fine clothing and helicopter rides as they lied about their incomes to get the U.S. government to pay their health care bills with money meant for the poor, federal prosecutors said Thursday.

The diplomats were among 49 individuals charged in a complaint unsealed in federal court in Manhattan, though no arrests were made and only 11 of the diplomats and their spouses remained in the United States. The complaint said Medicaid, a health care program for the poor, lost about $1.5 million in the scheme since 2004."

Surely, these Russian diplomats must be following the same practice in every
country, don't they ?

I expected you to highlight this news item:
"NEW YORK (AP) — Dozens of current or former Russian diplomats and their spouses enjoyed luxury vacations and spent tens of thousands of dollars on concert tickets, fine clothing and helicopter rides as they lied about their incomes to get the U.S. government to pay their health care bills with money meant for the poor, federal prosecutors said Thursday.
The diplomats were among 49 individuals charged in a complaint unsealed in federal court in Manhattan, though no arrests were made and only 11 of the diplomats and their spouses remained in the United States. The complaint said Medicaid, a health care program for the poor, lost about $1.5 million in the scheme since 2004."
Surely, these Russian diplomats must be following the same practice in every
country, don't they ?
So the russian diplomats (whose wages and pensions should be known by CIA, unless CIA is a bunch of professionally unfit nerds) have fooled the dreadful IRT and stole a big bheap of good cold cash to the genial USA treasury...And then they say russians are a bunch of backward drunken stalinist barbaric fools...
Never undervalue the enemy...

It actually looked rather civil, and the cops stood their ground pretty well. The scoop tram driver was pretty meticulous in shoving cops' own barricades onto them very gradually and without causing any harm to them. It looked almost hilarious.

BTW, it was Yanukovych and his Putin-sponsored Donbas Mafia who stole two consecutive elections and, now, have to face the wrath of their own citizens. Everything happens for a reason and the level of determination must have reached a point of no return if 350 to 500 thousand citizens demonstrate against their government at significantly subzero temperatures facing brutality of riot police.

Perhaps Mr. Yanukovych would try to listen to his constituents. If he doesn't bring enough money from China to prevent a rapid devaluation of the Hryvnia before the 2015 election he'll likely bring about Ukraine's default on its sovereign debt, a government crisis an possibly early elections both parliamentary and presidential. I suspect that neither Russia nor China will extend $160 billion handout to a thug whose credibility hovers around the absolute (Kelvin) ZERO.

YuriyMoscow, you idjut. You obviously can't read Ukrainian because Ukrainska Pravda has already pointed out this bulldozer in the video was commandeered by a group of provocateurs in the pay of the Yanukovych regime - specifically, Korchinsky and his UNSO. Funnily, he hasn't been arrested but 9 innocent Ukrainians peacefully protesting have been arrested and beaten mercilessly while handcuffed to the ground, a method of beating they learned from the beloved OMON of YuriyMoscow's Russia.http://www.euronews.com/2013/12/04/ukrainian-police-filmed-beating-anti-...
The authorities have pictures of the bulldozed drivers and team (the provocateurs) and they are not arrested. Innocent people are however beaten.
YuriyMoscow go back to your KGB police state in Putinstan. You laugh at Ukraine's opposition. Huh, look at Russia's opposition: Zhirinovsky, Zyuganov - boy these men are true Russian intellectuals, as intelligent as the Economist's own little YuriyMoscow who believes Russia's true values are embodied in the barbaric Lubyanka and the KGB poisoner Putin.

I also amazed by the fact that the actual Ukranian President in the Soviet times was a robber whose "qualification" was to steal fur hats from the "pinguins" ("pinguins" in slang - people who sat at the toilets while the future Ukranian President fastly stealing their hats..;)) Amazing fact that he is now..President of Ukraine.

It is pretty much as Pablo Escobar was a President of Columbia..

BUT at the same time I do not have any kind of respect to the actual leaders of the Ukranian opposition. Really lier's faces..with very dangerous national mood (especially "the Bull").

May be it is time to establish parlamentary republic (ONLY via peaceful way) and to give reins of power to you actual prime minister Mr. Azarov. He is quite smart and wise prime minister, I think.

Who on Earth has given you the right to dictate what the Ukrainians have to do? Just ask your compatriots and the Putin kleptocracy at the Kremlin to keep their dirty bear paws of this country.
Russia's imperial arrogance has no limits, but I'm happy to witness as it started blowing straight into Russia's political leaders' crooked faces. I envision much more to come from the direction none of us is now expecting. Russia keeps overplaying its hand and will be eventually called.

It is a HOOEY what you've just answered instead of an itelligent reply re possibility to establish parlamentary republic in Ukraine and candidature of the actual Ukranian prime minister.

If your compatriots continue to follow a-m kind of behaviour, instead of President - "Fur Hat "Pinguine" - Robber (or Vitya - the Professor) you will elect the Boxer or the Rabbit or the Bull who will finally bring Ukraine total economic collapse.

Well, anything will make the Ukrainians and their homeland better off than the current kleptocracy. I do know that Mr. Yanukovych is a lowly thug with two criminal conviction, one for what you've described twice and the second for an assault and a participation in a gang rape.

I think that Mr. Klitschko is rapidly maturing as a politician and stands fair chances to become Ukraine's next president.

I believe Ukraine has little to gain from the EU association agreement in its current form. Most experts would agree with this somber assessment as well. Conditions of the association would suffocate Ukraine’s resource intensive industry as well as Ukraine’s gradually recovering agriculture. There are many bad examples to learn from: the Baltic States, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia etc.
However, I think most of the protesters don’t care about real arguments for or against the so-called euro integration. They are sick and tired of their current rulers, many of whom are nothing more than former thugs with just a veneer of civility. Many, if not most, Ukrainians want to chase them out of power. Many think getting closer to EU can help achieve that goal. That is a naïve miscalculation, though.
Ukraine has to sort out its existential problems on its own without drawing external powers in the civil conflict. Otherwise it will become an object of a fight, or a theater of a proxy war. There are many contemporary examples of ostensibly good foreign intentions gone terribly wrong, Libya and Syria being the freshest of them. If Ukrainians are not careful they may see the following dusted-off scenario being applied to them now: (1.a.) Engineer continued street protests fueled by any source of dissatisfaction (e.g., from ungodly Femen to high spirited intellectuals to brawny nationalists), as long as it adds to the escalation of tensions in society; (1.b.) add violence; (2) add “correct” news coverage and internet buzz; (3) mix in public encouragement from the West; (4) nudge on hapless opposition to create/exacerbate political crisis; (5) manage regime change.
Most likely, this kind of scenario was readied by the opposition for 2015, when Ukraine was supposed to have its highly contested presidential elections. Somehow, the start signal went off too early. Either way, the results of this kind of scenarios in bitterly split societies can be horrible: a prolonged civil strife or war. The question is, then, whether Ukraine really needs this kind of a future? Or, maybe, the opposition needs to pause for a moment and come up with another sort of goals, something constructive, something that would consolidate the vast majority of the Ukrainian society in its fight for a better life, things like getting rid of criminals in politics, eradicating corruption, fighting large scale economic crimes, building a lawful society based on Orthodox values etc.

Notwithstanding the validity of many points you've made your faith in a modern society based on (the) Orthodox values is a bit of a pipe dream not to say, not to say bigotry. Not all Ukrainians share your Orthodox or any other religious values and they have their rights to the freedom of conscience. What about other religions and atheists?

What is going on on the streets of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities cannot be explained by any conspiracy theory; people are simply fed up with the rule of thieves called KLEPTOCRACY, double standards and Russia's bullying. They want to live better lives and the present political balance of power cannot meet their expectations. Once democracy failed during the rigged both presidential and parliamentary elections people took to the streets. It was possible to break the spines of Soviet puppets in Poland in 1980-1981, so why won't it be possible in Ukraine? Ukrainians love freedom too.

BTW, democracy is a process, always a painstaking one, not a gift from the High Heavens. There's no democracy in Ukraine, as the whole process was hijacked by the Kremlin-paid thugs. I spoke with many officially sent by the Canadian government, fluent in Ukrainian observers of both Ukrainian elections and a lot of what I'm writing about is largely based on their direct experience.

To quote: "..something constructive, something that would consolidate the vast majority of the Ukrainian society in its fight for a better life, things like getting rid of criminals in politics, eradicating corruption, fighting large scale economic crimes, building a lawful society ..."

Well, you have just about summarised what the opposition is fighting for.
So, what's the problem ? Why can't Yanukovych and his government agree to implement it right away ?

I would have to repeat what I have written in response to Mr Didomyk’s comments. Would Observer48 want to physically experience the real revolution which he/she so vehemently preaches here? Ukrainians, in their collective memory, know all too well what it actually means: inevitable bloodshed and devastation. Is that what he/she means by a painstaking process of democracy? Let’s assume revolution is a part of the so-called painstaking process, but will the catharsis lead to inevitable progress? Why not just going to elections in 2015 and electing a better president? It is hard to imagine the current rulers, as bad as they are, can dupe the entire nation. Isn’t it how you normally solve problems with unpopular governments in U.S. or Europe?
Apparently, Ukraine must purify itself now, even if it means carrying out a coup d’état. Who cares if the new rulers are going to be seen as illegitimate by half of Ukraine? Who cares if Ukraine’s East will split from Kiev? That is not important. Why? Well, because nothing can stop the invincible and inevitable march of democracy that suits so much our enlightened advisers: Drang nach Osten!

Don't agree with many of your points. You sometimes need to corner the thugs to get rid of them, but it's always better to leave them an escape route than "fight to kill".
Yanukovych heads for another term, and he won't hesitate to pull off every dirty trick in his arsenal to steal the election again.
Look, most of the former Soviet bloc countries got rid of the Soviet-ordained puppet governments while not of all former communist party members. It took, however, a lot of people going peacefully to the streets and demonstrating their determination for change. It's not different in Ukraine this time.
Nobody in human history hasn't given up power voluntarily unless forced by law or preferably peaceful revolution if the law is broken or wilfully circumvented.

Has Russia so far, in its entire history, created a "lawful society based on Orthodox values"? For all its numerous sins, including very destructive atheism (which I also personally resent), the EU still resembles "lawful society" far more than Putinite Russia.

I agree with you completely, Gdansk. My worry is not about Ukraine becoming part of Russia. That is a farfetched conclusion, in my mind. My worry is that Ukraine is driven to a bloody civil war, just like in former Yugoslavia. Conditions are ripe for that to happen. People hate the thugs in power and want them gone. However, if the change of guard happens through a coup d’état the new rulers will not be legitimate in the eyes of many Ukrainians, and yes, Russia might help them make that case. In other words, it will not be the velvet or orange or rose revolution to which we grew so accustomed. It will be a bloody and devastating civil war. East can marshal 500,000 on the streets just as easily as did Kiev and the West. Then what?

East can marshal 500,000 on the streets...
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No, East can't. About dozen thousand terrified pensioners and hired lumpenproletariat is their maximum. None of them would fight for anything, except for the bottle of cheap vodka in the store.

I don't claim to be an expert, but don't think civil war is inevitable. I don't think the many thousands who have yet again come out into the streets are driven by hatred. I think it is a far nobler sense of dignity, a sense that no politician, power broker or coterie have the right to decide their fate and the fate of their grandchildren for them. I think ordinary Ukrainians are thinking long-term, while Yanukovych is thinking short-term.

I think Yanukovych's terrible mistake was not so much that he deceived anyone in the EU. His terrible mistake was that he deceived ordinary Ukrainians. The anger of these people is justified. I think they understand democracy a lot better than Yanukovych.

And when I say Ukrainians, I mean all the citizens of Ukraine, regardless of geographic location, language or religious beliefs. I think the division of Ukraine into two groups, east and west, is false. I don't think everyone protesting is pro-EU. You don't have to be especially pro-EU to fear becoming overly dependent on a powerful neighbour with imperialistic traditions in the north.

I'm not overly optimistic about the current political crisis. I'm very wary of police/militia provocations. But Ukraine in no way resembles Yugoslavia. I think tragedies , such as Holodomor, may unite Ukrainians

Oh... You even will not beleive, what are our feelings, feelings of Ukrainian people when we read so articles. Journalist who did write this opus, you are welcome to live in Ukraine and work in Ukraine. When your personal incom will be on 90 from Ukraine economy, you will write so words: "Terrible terrorists try to make new one revolution in Ukraine".
We dont need EU. We even dont WTO. We will be happy, when you (US and EU) will just forget obout us. We whantn't you to be here.
Denis.
Kiev, Ukraine.
Sorry for my terrible English.

That west-east dividing is a common mistake, it's a forged stereotype imposed by the Moscow propaganda. All the regions of Ukraine are predominately Ukrainian excepting Crimea. The Russian speaking population is concentrated in the several big cities at the south, the Ukrainian speaking population is dispersed everywhere in countryside, so those "Russian" cities looks like the islands in the sea of Ukrainians. You can't divide the country having the Ukrainian majority everywhere. All the northern Ukraine from west to east is Ukrainian completely, for 92-98%.

92-98% of the wrong information re number of the Russian population in Ukraine.

In Ukraine only Russians represent almost 30-35%! of the whole Ukranian population (citizens).

And do not forget that Russian speaking population* in Ukraine is almost 90 % (except from Lviv and Lvivska oblast but I suspect that they also speak quite good in Russian when they come to work or travel in Russia )...
*Under Russian speaking population I meant citizens who know Russian language at the due level or some kind of "Spanglish" ;)) or "Surgik".

P.s. West and East of Ukraine were always divided even before the USSR times..

@inshort
in your previous comment you calculated Russian population in Ukraine 8! or 10! times less than even in your actual "data"..But I don't undrestand why you refer to 2001 year..Now is 2013!
I suspect that people who visited Ukraine perfectly know that:
Russian speaking population* in Ukraine is almost 90 % (except from Lviv and Lvivska oblast but I suspect that they also speak quite good in Russian when they come to work or travel in Russia )...
*Under Russian speaking population I meant citizens who know Russian language at the due level or some kind of "Spanglish" ;)) or "Surgik".

More plain B_U_L_L from Moscow.
This man is blind to realities, he does not understand that speaking another language is not synonymous with being a foreign national. Generations had to learn Russian as a state language. That didn't change nobody from being a Ukrainian, or a Tatar, a Latvian or a Georgian. Or even a Pole or a German.
That imperial Russian mentality can make some people blind.

Here is part of a very recent assessment of Russian stagnant economy which is unable to keep up with the country's own needs, let alone engage in any external 'help':

"The investment-led growth model laid out by President Vladimir Putin after he took office for a third term last year hasn’t materialized, with weaker domestic demand hurting profits at companies including OAO AvtoVAZ. GDP growth had slowed every quarter since Putin won a third Kremlin term in March 2012, with senior officials including Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warning Russia’s export-driven economic model neared exhaustion.

“There is still little evidence of a much-needed shift away from an excessive reliance on consumer spending and towards greater investment,” Neil Shearing, chief economist for emerging markets at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, said in an e-mailed note. “An increase in private investment is unlikely without structural reforms to the financial sector and the business environment. These remain off the table for now.”http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-12/russian-gdp-expands-less-than-f...

That's exactly the case plus:
1. Russia has been running rapidly-growing budgetary deficits for the fourth year now and the current year's deficit is swelling fast due to the high cost of its financing (over 7% per year while the US and Japanese ones are financed at close to zero interest rates);
2. Russian international trade positive balance is eaten up almost entirely by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation's open market operations performed in order to keep stable foreign exchange rates of the ruble that cost from $700 million to $1 billion PER DAY in selling US dollars or their equivalents and buying the falling ruble, and that melts away roughly 50% of all Russia's foreign currency reserves. Now Elvira Nabiullina considers the introduction of wider spreads in order to conserve Russia's foreign currency reserves, but the ruble exchange rates will become significantly more volatile and, as a result, Russia's stock markets may be sent into tailspins more often than now;
3. Annual net outflow of private investment capital is conservatively estimated by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at $70 billion to $150 billion starting in 2007;
4. The Sochi Olympics final bill, now estimated at over $70 billion, may reach with all externalities $100 billion or more.
These four contributing factors are just the tips of four out of many icebergs lurking and waiting for the Russian Titanic with Putin at the helm. I'm flabbergasted by Putin and his kleptocracy's carelessness. He keeps antagonising all possible trade and political partners of Russia, so in case of trouble any external help or even positive cooperation will became a pipe dream.

Adomanis is brilliant (as almost always):
"I’m not sure why people insist on seeing Ukraine as some sort of alluring prize to be won. The simple fact is that it is an economic basket case with a GDP per capita less than half of Russia’s (!) and a swiftly declining population. Since 1992 Russia, whose demographics are habitually described in utterly apocalyptic terms, has lost about 4.8 million people. Ukraine, despite having a population about a third the size of Russia’s, has cumulatively lost 6.7 million. Ukraine’s demographic decline is thus not only proportionally more severe than Russia’s, it is actually worse in absolute terms. Why taking a country like that into the fold would be a boon is a complete mystery to me.
If the citizens of Ukraine want to be in Europe then they should be in Europe. But the idea that Ukraine is the secret to some geopolitical great game is anachronistic nonsense. An objective look at the numbers tells you that Ukraine is not an asset but a major liability, a country that is likely to need massive infusions of resources just to stay on its feet. In fact, you could make a compelling case that by bringing Ukraine into the fold Russia would actually be weakening its power-projection capabilities, since it would then be responsibly for directly subsidizing the inefficient and ineffective Ukrainian economy."
Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/12/03/would-absorbing-ukra...

So why on Earth does Russia keeps bullying all former Soviet republics or even invading them (Chechnya, Dagestan and Georgia)?
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So...
1999, Chechens (or at least, mostly chechen people people guided by cechen "prime minister" Basaev. so under his responsability) invaded Dagestan (part of russian federation). The rest was obvious...
2008, Georgian forces gunned Russian forces legally deployed in South Ossetia (and some hundred ossetian civilians, just to accept). The rest was obvious, again (and Russian stopped before occupying Tbilisi too, while Georgian army virtually no more existed)...
Who started bullying who?

And what is the truth then?
When you see a provocation, the last thing to do is to fall in it like a fool. So, either Basaev and Saakashvily were bullies, or they were fools. Or both.
Take your pick...

Putin and Russia are the losers at the end of the day as the Chechen civil war and terrorism cost Russia many times more than the oil revenue from Chechnya, while Georgia is now an associated EU member.

Russia was forced to totally withdraw from all Georgian territories leaving the oil and gas corridor between the Caspian area and Turkey under full Georgian control that is detrimental to a potential Gazprom's monopoly on the EU NG markets. Some Russian land force conscript soldiers in Georgia were too drunk to fight while Ukrainian-made SA missiles sent to the ground, on shortcut routes, quite a few Russian aircraft.

Your Marxist/Hegelian logic is overwhelming, but history will write the last chapters to the Soviet/Russian aggression and occupation of those countries. Have a good voyage on your Russian Titanic with Putin at her helm!

Putin and Russia are the losers at the end of the day as the Chechen civil war and terrorism cost Russia many times more than the oil revenue from Chechnya, while Georgia is now an associated EU member.
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The value of Chechnya (and Dagestan) for Russia is surely not (only) the not excessive oil resources of the coutry (-es), but the position as an outopost keeping the would-be "caucasian emirate" (very "democratic", indeed: sharia for all!) in the land of dreams. Better some more expenses today than the wahabite rule in Astrakhan (or in Volgograd) tomorrow...
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Russia was forced to totally withdraw from all Georgian territories leaving the oil and gas corridor between the Caspian area and Turkey under full Georgian control that is detrimental to a potential Gazprom's monopoly on the EU NG markets. Some Russian land force conscript soldiers in Georgia were too drunk to fight while Ukrainian-made SA missiles sent to the ground, on shortcut routes, quite a few Russian aircraft.
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Russians retreated from properly georgian lands, to avoid a long, uncertain and costly war (something like Irak, y'know...), holding their forces in two friendly regions (which depend on them for their survival, not only economic, but even physical), from wich they can cut the famous "corridor" at their will (if the game get though, but I think it's unlikely: Sakashvily has left and gone away...). The "drunkyes" russian soldiers have had not so much to fight, since US-trained and -funded georgian army is evaporated in less than a week (from the generals going down by hierarchical scale), and many of the russian planes gunned down have been hit by "friendly fire" (fog of war, y'know...IFF not always works well..)...
And this was the war, and the others are tales...

I don't know where has your Georgian "intel" come from, but the reality was quite different. The only point I can in part agree was the total lack of strategy demonstrated by the Georgian armed forces. Russia withdrew from Georgia very reluctantly facing severe international sanctions and possible Georgian resistance movement was the last of Putin or Medvedev's worries.
The "friendly" fire downing Russian aircraft if true (my info is different and most shot-downs was done by Ukrainian SA missiles provided by Polish arms merchants) speaks to Russian strategic and tactical incompetence.
The war was limited, nevertheless it took over 20% of Russian land forces to invade that small 4.5 million country (now, imagine Ukraine with 46 million or Poland with 38 million).
As far as the future of Russia in its current shape is concerned I'm a pessimist. It'll either have to make a U-turn or face a slow and painful demographic death.

I believe that from the rhetorics used by several of our commentators we can clearly see who they work for. The language of Soviet propaganda bulletins, the Russian language of intimidation and provocation.

Russia has got nothing to offer Ukraine but short-term fixes and long-term dependency.

Exactly, with the exception of corruption, nepotism and cronyism. BTW, perhaps Russia wants to go to the dogs in Ukraine's company. What a display of altruism!
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Ukraine will go to the dogs in splendid isolation, if Yanukovich plays the fool again and start courting EU again, or however IF Ukraine keeps dreaming about an Euro-Marshall Plan the EU has neither the money nor the will for...Russia has played its last card, has seen in its pokets and has made its last bid: take it or leave it. And sad to say, nobody will offer a dime more than so much...

There is good reason why the EU losers are so sore to the HUMILIATING CRASH of their make believe "eastern partnership" program pushed by Poland and Sweden - the EU losers are on verge of collapsing during this cold winter with natural gas reserves 5 years low and Russia GAZPROM ready to cash in on the EU stupidity.

The fact that GAZPROM laughs all the way to the bank despite the EU chest thumping about "gas independence from Russia" while scores of poles develop very low life expectancy during the cold seasons drives the EU crazy :

Russian gas group Gazprom reported a 5 per cent rise in first-quarter net profit, reflecting a recovery in gas exports to Europe.

Gazprom said its profit rose to 381bn roubles ($11.4bn) for the period from January to March, up from 361.4bn roubles a year ago.

Net sales of gas to Europe stood at 428bn roubles – 11 per cent up on a year ago. Volumes also increased 6 per cent to 45.4bn cubic metres."

But what drives the EU bonkers is the possibility that the Ukraine kleptomaniacs again will try to steal Russia gas bound to EU and there will be gas delivery problems due to the Ukraine non reliance as a gas transport country.

This is the main reason why EU want to take over the dilapidate soviet era Ukraine gas transport system by inviting the Ukraine oligachs to get reacher while selling the Ukraine people infrastructure for their own enrichment, much what the orange gaz princess and orange mafia mamasita Yulia Tymochenko become most famous with.

The rest Ukraine people can eat crap, much what they had when the orange mafia stole the 2004 elections and by command of their US maters confronted Russia. In result the Ukraine GDP slumped by 14.8% and the Ukraine industrial production fall by 25%, Ukraine experienced HUGE emigration as the Ukraine people run en masse abroad to clean toilets in order to be able feed their starving families strangled by the orange holodomor. Ukraine become known as cheap sex tourism destination for the western owners of the orange mafia full of children alcoholics and prostitutes.

The ONLY democratically elected government in the Ukraine history - the one of President Yanukovych understands well the ramification of the EU regulations which will lead to Ukraine to sever its relationship with Russia. Namely the E Ukraine industry which produces 80% of the Ukraine GDP is tightly integrated with Russia, what means the Ukraine GDP will suffer HUGE downturn and Ukraine will collapse in depression from the third recession in four years Ukraine find itself currently, if Ukraine loses Russia as a partner.

No wonder only 38% in E Ukraine wishes to have close relationships with the EU, and there are buss loads of people arriving from E Ukraine to Kiev to support their President Yanukovych, while the paid W Ukraine traitors whine in powerless rage and make angry noises for laughs, heh, heh, heh :D

But funniest of all is the retarded numbers game plaid by the EUlosers. They claim that majority (51%) of Ukraine are supporting the EU FTA and AA, what means we shall see tens in millions of people rally all over the country in support of their "EU dream".

Instead there are several thousands of drunkards, hooligans and west paid saboteurs who make angry noises and disturb the order in the Ukraine capital.

If some believe the EU propaganda HALF MILLION protested in Kiev what is less than 1/5 of the Kiev population of 2.7 million - not even 20% of the Kiev population alone, and this idiots come from all the W Ukraine.

How does this relate to Russia? Can your pigsty's KGB government leave Ukraine to Ukrainians? Russia doesn't have any business in Ukraine. Period. What we see there its just a beginning of a huge U-turn that will eventually leave Russia inhaling Ukraine's exhaust gasses (mostly methane spiced with not so savoury flavour).

"he EU losers are on verge of collapsing during this cold winter "
LOL, I am yet to see that. The only reason that EU is dependent on Russian gas is that it is so damn cheap. Like realy cheap. Truly, we don't care really how much it costs. It is still so cheap. And it is cheap because it works totally other way round - it is Russia so dependant on gas exports since it has nothing else to offer on the world market. No one want's its crap.

Yes, and Gazprom gets only $205 to $207 per 1000 cm at the entry into the Schengen zone. The difference to $370 on average are the EU taxes and levies, so the reverse stream to Ukraine costs the EU next to nothing.

It's why the US is about to sign a free trade agreement with the EU (US NG trading between $110 and $150 per 1000 cm at Henry Hub with the cost of liquefaction, shipment and regasification of $35 to $70 on top, will be able to match Gazprom's EU zone entry prices).

What we see there its just a beginning of a huge U-turn that will eventually leave Russia inhaling Ukraine's exhaust gasses (mostly methane spiced with not so savoury flavour).
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What we see is a lot of ukrainian people repeating the mistake of a lot of russian people in 1980-90es: chanting "west will help us", while the west (GB, Poland, Sweden, US...) has is own agenda, and "help ukrainians" has no space in it...
Guess WHO will inhale exhaust gasses (and in a decade's time maybe will come out with an ukrainian version of Putin)?
Oh, when will they all learn...

Yes, and Gazprom gets only $205 to $207 per 1000 cm at the entry into the Schengen zone. The difference to $370 on average are the EU taxes and levies, so the reverse stream to Ukraine costs the EU next to nothing.
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The EU get the taxes and levies (from who? Russians or europeans?). But it's not EU who pays for the gas (or sells the gas to "Kyiv"): it's Germany (or german firms, and if they sell russian gas for less than they pay for it, they have to sooth their stakeolders' angst, sooner or later: why in the hell we have to get losses for the pretty face of Kyiv?).

And your point is?
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I thoght it was clear. However, here is the drawing picture:
1)in 1990es the russians were ready to get rid of communism, like now ukrainians are ready to get rid from Yanukovich.
2) Russians were ready to do it (regardless of the fact that Gorby started some reforms, definitely closed the Gulags, got off "Afghan", etc.) because THEY THOUGHT the westy will help them to live well (or however, not so bad) after that. "America will help us", they said, thinking to some "Marshall Plan". And so the ukrainians think now.
3) Russians di dot get virtally nothing they were waiting for, and what they got was ill managed (advisors...), with a frightfully high price tag ("shock therapy") and given in the wrong way ("Eeat and shut up" politics, etc.). And of couse, with no guarantee against corruption (oligarchs and not only them). And this (or even worse) will happen with Ukrainians (no compensation, no PAC funds -that's not yet membership, after all-, custom-free invasion of western finished goods, etc.).
4) the above mentioned process carried to the "sudden" end of honeymoon between "new" Russia and the west (Putin). And this will happen in Ukraine too (especially in the east, but i would not bet the west will not follow -or at least the center and the sout from "Kyiv" to Odessa-). To Yanukovich will succeed "Eltsinyuk", and then "Putinenko". What will remain to west? "Lviv"? Big deal...