The Faith Factor 2008 vs. 2004 — Exit Polls

“”We worship an awesome God in the blue states,” Barack Obama declared during his 2004 Democratic convention keynote. Thunderous applause greeted that line, in part because Democrats felt frustrated that they’d been unfairly cast as a secular or even anti-religion party, and by the political dominance of religious conservatives.”

The Rise of the Religious Left. But clearly Obama still did not get the evangelical votes.

1.How Many Obamagelicals Are There? – It might seem farfetched that a socialist-terror-lovin’-pro-abortion candidate like Obama could win any evangelical Christians but he’s been courting them fervently since he began his presidential run. The key the 40% of evangelicals who call themselves “moderate” or “liberal.” Point of reference: John Kerry won 21% of white evangelicals, Gore 18%. Bill Clinton in 1996 won 26%.

2. Will Palin Turn Out the “Religious Right”? — By picking Sarah Palin, John McCain gambled that she’d be able to rev up the evangelical “base.” Even as her popularity has fallen generally, evangelicals still love her (some even believing she was sent to battle the anti-Christ.) Assuming most conservative evangelicals vote for McCain, the second question is: how many will show up? Point of reference: white evangelicals accounted for 23% of the electorate in 2004.

3. Do Midwestern Evangelicals Split With Their Brethren? — Recent polls have showed Obama trailing badly among evangelicals in Florida and Colorado but doing quite well with them in Michigan, Ohio and

Pennsylvania. If he succeeds there, he may have tapped into regional differences in style, theology and politics and launch a new era in faith-and-politics punditry, in which we no longer talk about “the evangelical vote” as a geographically uniform phenomenon.4. Will Catholics Ignore Their Bishops? – The overall Catholic vote has gone with the popular vote winner every election since 1968. Catholic Bishops have been urging Catholic voters to vote for pro-life candidates but a majority of Catholic voters are now pro-choice so it remains to be seen what influence the church will have. (Obama is also winning with the 100-year-old-nuns bloc) Another factor in Obama’s favor: a higher percentage of the Catholic vote will be Latino this year. Last election, George W. Bush won the Catholic 52%-46%.

5. Can Obama Finally Bowl a Strike With Skeptical White Catholics? – During the primaries, Obama did poorly with white Catholics, often working class ethnics or their offspring. Remember his feeble attempt to curry favor through bowling? They tend to be culturally conservative and haven’t voted for a Democrat since 1996. On the other hand, they’re especially concerned about the economy this year, and Joe Biden has been trying to bond with them as a fellow “cultural Catholics.” Point of reference: In 2004, Bush won 56% of white Catholics, Kerry 43%.

6. Will Whitebread Protestants Back the Black Guy? – Recent polls show Democrats gaining with a group that had leaned Republican for most of the past few decades – Mainline Protestants. It appears that while Sarah Palin energized evangelicals, she may have alienated some Mainliners. In 2004, they went for President George W. Bush 54%-46%.

7. Will Latino Protestants Vote Their Values or the Pocketbook? – One positive trend for Obama will likely be the shift of Latinos from the Republican side, where they resided in 2004, to the Democrats. The hidden religious story: most of the shift is driven by Latino Protestants. Many are evangelical and liked Bush’s Christian faith and his conservative positions on social issues (gay marriage, abortion) but have shifted to Obama because of the economy and concerns about immigration.

8. How Will the Kinda-Sorta Religious Vote? – In recent elections, the most religious you were, the more likely you were to vote Republican. This is known as the God Gap, which will still certainly exist. But watch for two things: among weekly churchoers how big is McCain’s margin? Bush won that group 61%-39% Second, Kerry last time beat Bush among more occasional churchgoers 53%-47%. Will Obama increase that margin?

9. Will Jews Schlep to Republican Side? – This only really matters in

Florida, and even there it doesn’t matter as much as you’d think (Jews made up 5% of the electorate there in 2004). Early polls had Obama struggling among Jews – in part because of fears about his former church’s connections to Louis Farrakhan — but more recently he’s caught up, possibly because Jews fear that Sarah Palin is an extreme evangelical. Or possibly the Sarah Silverman factor. Jews reportedly went about 75%-25% for Kerry.10. Will the GOP Become the ROP? – Will Republicans become the Religiously Oriented Party? In 2004, white evangelicals made up 36% of Bush voters.
Will that go up or down? If it becomes an even more dominant force within the party, how will that shape either the way McCain governs if he wins or, if he loses, how the Republicans re-invent themselves.

He also improved among white Catholics, according to the early exit polls. Bush got 56%-43% As of now, McCain lead by just 51%-49% This was despite an aggressive push by more than 50 Bishops to encourage Catholics to focus on abortion as the central issue.

He man real gainst among Evangelicals. Evangelicals and Born Again Christians made up a greater portion of the electorate this year than last election but that didn’t all accrue to McCain’s benefit, as predict. Obama improved slightly on a national level, getting 25% compared to Kerry’s 21%

But far more important, he made significant progress in the pivotal rustbelt states that won him the election. For instance, evangelicals flooded the polls in Ohio and Obama significantly improved on Kerry’s showing.

He attracted more Mainline Protestants — Though shifting toward the center in recent years, mainline Protestants — once a core of the Republican party — – still went for the Republicans in 2004. The exit polls didn’t ask specifically about mainline Protestants but it appears Obama improved slightly with this group.

He energized the lightly religious. Though secular voters already voted Democratic, they did so by an even bigger margin this year. Even more important, a quarter of the electorate says they go to worship services but only a few times a year. Kerry won that group with 54%-45%. Obama won 61%-38%

The rap on Obama during the primaries was that he couldn’t win because he struggled with Catholics. Apparently, he got past that. Early exit polls indicate he won 54% of the Catholic vote compared to 45% for John McCain….

Obama seems to have made far more progress with Born Again Christians in rust belt states than in the South. Based on preliminary exit polls: Florida: 78%-20% (McCain-Obama) Virginia: 78%-21% Ohio: 70%-29% Indiana: 66%-32%

One thing that puzzles me about these numbers: Obama’s progress among Catholics is with those who don’t attend mass weekly. But among Protestants, he improved among those who do attend weekly. One possible theory: abortion. Mass-attending Catholics are more likely…

and all cannot disregard the influence they do also have on others too.

According to a poll in the 1990s, about one in five Christians in the United States claims to be a Baptist The Baptists number over 110 million worldwide in more than 220,000 congregations, and are considered the largest world communion of evangelical Protestants, with an estimated 38 million members in North America.[4] Large populations of Baptists also exist in Asia, Africa and Latin America, notably in India (2.4 million), Nigeria (2.5 million), Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) (1.9 million), and Brazil (1.7 million).[5]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baptist

I HAVE MADE HUNDREDS OF POST ON DIFFERENT SUBJECTS AND STILL RELIGION IS THE MAIN POST MOST PEOPLE DO READ. 80 PERCENT OF MY READERS PREFER TO READ THE RELIGIOUS POST FIRSTLY TOO.. THIS IS THE REALITY MANY BULLIES, BASHERS, LIBERALS , CANNOT SEE OR FACE .
.
My top 2 most read past posts on all 5 of my wordpress sites were about Sarah Palin firstly, Rev Todd Bentley secondly , and both are Pentecostals now too..

and next the most popular are the general Christian topics, such as the bad Christian Missionary Alliance Church, are the thirdly most popular read ones.

the Secular posts of mine are all in the bottom ten percent .. in reality few bother to read them..

and as per the supposed need of any separation of the church and state that is a clear demonic rule now too that cannot ever be enforced in reality ..any man or women who separates his political life from religion tends to have no morals.. and that is what the devil likes,

[…] November 1, 2008 in Christian Life | Tags: Bible, Christians, Church of Jesus Christ, cult, Jehovah Wittnesses, Mormons, Seventh Day adventists It is all very simple, ”The true Church of Jesus Christ”, the Mormons do not read and practice the New Testament firstly.. they rather seem listen and practice their elders lies, false teachings over the Bible, since they do not read or practice the Bible but use the false book of Mormon as their main guide instead. The Mormons always show their unacceptable Bible ignorance to anyone who reads and knows the Bible too. . Don’t bother to deny it for I have a Mormon elder as a neighbor and he he even changes his doctrines from day to day cause their doctrines are not fixed on the Bible but on mere sinful men.. do first see what real Christians do believe and where they differ from the Mormons.. in almost everything and do see now why too.. Mormons are in the same bad cult as Jehovah Wittnesses, Seventh Day adventists now as well. As far as the US presidential elections every Mormon it seems wants to believe that Mormonism won’t be a problem . Think again. Mormon Mitt Romney’s Evangelical Problem is unsurpassable.. the right wing evangelicals will never, never support him for in their eyes rightfully Mormons are not even Christians, they are a cult, a sect, false prophets. What they do not need is to elect another anti Christ.. Romney is a Mormon, a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (LDS). Even the Catholics do not belive the Mormons are Christians.. Mormonism was never an issue when Orrin Hatch ran for president, but Hatch was never talked up with even a smidgen of the seriousness that accompanies the Massachusetts governor. We live in a political era in which, thanks largely to Republicans, candidates are virtually required to talk openly about their religious views. There is no way a Republican, especially in a GOP primary, can avoid the issue–if for no other reason than the press and the real Christians won’t let them. It’s understandable that political observers want to naively think Romney’s religion wouldn’t be a problem. Dream on…Romney’s obstacle is the evangelical base–a voting bloc that now makes up 30 percent of the Republican electorate and that wields particular influence in primary states like South Carolina and Virginia.” Mormons were not like us, they are not Christian”. Just as it is hard to overestimate the importance of evangelicalism in the modern Republican Party, it is nearly impossible to overemphasize the problem evangelicals have with Mormonism. It is a fixable and forever as well. To the evangelicals, Mormonism isn’t just another religion. It’s a cult. “A stronghold of Satan”. They will not even accept Romney as vice-president, never mind a President. While the Mormons themselves do believe that they are the fully realized strain of Christianity–hence the “latter-day saints.” They acknowledge extra-biblical works of scripture (such as the Book of Mormon and the Doctrine and Covenants), follow a series of prophets who claim to have received divine revelations, and teach that God inhabits an actual physical body. This is all blasphemy to evangelicals; and rightfully they argue that “the Bible explicitly warns against adding to or detracting from its teaching” and refer to the revelations as “realistic deception[s] by the Devil himself. “Most evangelicals still regard Mormonism as a cult,” “Evangelical Christians consider Mormonism a threat in a way that Catholicism and even Judaism are not. The LDS Church, they charge, has perverted Christian teachings to create a false religion. To be tolerant of Mormonism is to put evangelical Christianity at risk. And to put a Mormon in the White House would be to place a stamp of approval on that faith. 50 million Southern Baptists alone have been particularly vocal about labeling the LDS Church a “cult.” and declared that Utah was “a stronghold of Satan.” “evangelicals are regularly instructed as to why Mormonism is a cult.” That is just the start of how the evangelical Christians feel rightfully about the Mormons still too. Even Republican Charles Colson reminded his radio listeners that “while Mormons share some beliefs with Christians, they are not Christians.” “I respect Mormons and work with them,” he said, “but we can’t gloss over our fundamental differences.” One longtime political observer put it this way: “Publicly, it’s not an issue. Privately, it’s a big damn issue.” When Evangelicals are asked if “Would you be more or less likely to vote for Mitt Romney as a Mormon, and since some Mormons believe in polygamy?” The main answer still is never! For the Christians there is a already a sure and a much better option , one of their own. Yes the modern GOP’s reliance on evangelical voters and its elevation of personal religiosity will doom the chances of this candidate. Or, to put it in evangelical terms, it might be easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for Mitt Romney to win any of the Republican nominations. All as simple now as that too. now you should see my post about Faith based polling results with regard to Obama now too.. https://postedat.wordpress.com/2008/11/05/the-faith-factor-2008-vs-2004-exit-polls/ […]