Systematic Analysis of Professional and College Team Sports and Players

Saturday, December 7, 2013

2013 Conference USA Championship Game

The C-USA game has the Marshall Thundering Herd facing the Rice Owls. So here is the
analysis of the game using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.Marshall is currently 9-3 playing against an "easier" strength of
schedule as compare to the "league" average, meaning that Marshall's strength of schedule is between one and two standard deviations greater than the "league" average strength of schedule. Marshall's best
victory of the season was against currently ranked #22 East Carolina. The Thundering Herd's worst loss was to currently ranked #74 Ohio. As of last weekend, Marshall was ranked #10 overall in
terms of overall production, with the #9 ranked most productive offense and
the #23 ranked most productive defense.

The Rice Owls are currently 9-3 playing against an "average"
strength of schedule as compare to the "league" average. The Owls best win was a 18-14 over
currently ranked #60 Florida Atlantic. The Owls worst defeat was to currently ranked #35 North Texas. The Owls are currently ranked as
the #44 ranked team in overall production and has the #61 ranked offense
and the #33 defense.

In terms of the model that I use to rank NCAA FBS teams, Marshall has the advantage over Rice on both sides of the ball, and thus look for Marshall to win this game.