Often Irreverent, Mostly Rational Blog for Fans of the Toronto Blue Jays. One Day, We'll Be Perfect.

Friday, August 24, 2012

Tao's Mammoth Tweet Bag: Your Tweeted Questions, My Blogged Answers

Hello, friends. These have been trying times, haven't they. If this
season has taught us anything, it is that the best laid plans of young,
ninja-like general managers can be torn asunder even faster than they
can be constructed. Castles made of sand, and all that sort of thing.

Which
isn't to say that this season was all for naught. (And there I go,
speaking in the past tense again.) At some point, I'm certain that I'll
be able to whip up my enthusiasm into a frenzy, and show the world I'll
never give up that ship.1 And if you needed something to
raise your spirits, seeing José Bautista drop two bombs in a rehab
outing certainly doesn't hurt, does it?
We'll get through this friends. I swear, we'll live to see the sun shine
on this franchise once more. And now, on to your cards and letters.
First up:

Well, Matt. I feel you, buddy. It's been grim, and the madness just
never seems to stop, does it? When David Cooper goes down with a
shoulder ouchy, and he was your cleanup hitter and one of the few
barely-blinking lights on the roster, you know the season has gone to a
darker place than those spelunking gals in the movie The Descent. Watch
your head for stalagmites. (Or are those stalactites?)

As
for why you should keep watching, I'll just remind you that there's a
chill in the air. Soon it will be fall, and then it will be winter, and
then you'll be staring out your window at snow banks, pining for the
start of Spring Training. We only get six months of baseball in the run
of a year, so tune in and enjoy, because watching a bad baseball team is
still preferable to watching whatever it is that they'll be playing
this winter.

There are few notions that I despise more than the argument that a
team should tank the season. This isn't basketball, where teams
essentially battle for the one meaningful player to enter the league
through the draft each year. If the Jays are as astute in their amateur
scouting as we're led to believe, then the difference between a third
pick or a ninth pick in the draft shouldn't be that significant in the
long run. And besides: Mike Trout might end up being the transcendent
star of the next 20 years, and he was drafted 25th overall.

Now, let's weasel our way back down from the moral high ground for a moment.

In
the new collective bargaining agreement, the top 10 picks in the draft
are protected, meaning that they would not be surrendered to a team
should the Jays meander into the free agent market. (More on that in a
moment.) So, I suppose that it would be best for the team if they
weren't, say, the 19th best franchise in baseball and were forced to
give up the 11th pick in the draft should they sign a free agent.

Does
this mean the team should tank? No, but it also probably means that
they shouldn't go to heroic lengths in the final six weeks of the season
in some valiant run at a .500 record. No need to rush players like J.P.
Arencibia back into action if they're not ready, just to take one
potential roster move.
Speaking of free agents...

@taoofstieb who are 3 FAs uncle Tao wants to see in BJ unis next year, and what are the optimal and realistic terms (not the same thing)
— Luke DeWitt (@whatadewitt) August 23, 2012

The
time is probably right for the Jays to supplement their Major League
roster with some established and experienced players, especially
pitchers. Given the regression of the Jays' pitching corps from the big
leagues down through the higher levels of the system, there's a yawning
gap that has opened in a pretty critical area. Unfortunately, the pool
of available arms is less than impressive.

There's Zack
Greinke at the top of the heap, and I would very much hope that the
Jays at least toss their hat into his ring. I'd think it unlikely that
he'd come to Toronto for a number of reasons - some guys just don't seem
to embrace the idea of living in a foreign land - but the Jays should
certainly see how many sacks of loonies it would take to convince him
otherwise. But make no mistake: Greinke is going to get a contract that
is the other side of reasonable. The Cole Hamels contract (six years, $144
million) should be the starting point of the deal.

There
are some other names that interest me on a certain level, and I think
I've mentioned them before. Brandon McCarthy and Edwin Jackson in
particular strike me as pitchers who could be solid number threes in the
rotation, with some potential as a two. Jake Peavy might be worth a
look, especially if you can get him for three years or less at a decent
number. And lets not forget our own free-agent-to-be, Carlos Villanueva,
who is 29 and looking like he could be a decent back of the rotation
option.

More about pitchers...

@taoofstieb Random question. Do the Jays have any top of the rotation prospect SP's that could be ready for 2013?
— Brown Guy (@devenp) August 23, 2012

Unfortunately, I'd have to say no. There are potential top of the
rotation guys further down the line, and the pitching staff at the lower
Single-A Lansing Lugnuts is certainly one you can dream on. But Justin
Nicolino (20 years old, 2.52 ERA, 112 Ks/18 BBs in 114.1 innings), Noah
Syndergaard (19, 2.88, 109/30, 93.2), and Aaron Sanchez (20, 2.27,
89/49, 83.1) are still at least a year away, and possibly three years
away from truly being relevant to the Jays' big league club. Elsewhere
in the minors, Sean Nolin has had a nice season at High-A Dunedin (2.19
ERA, 90 Ks/20 BBs in 86.1 innings), and recently got the call to
Double-A New Hampshire. At 22, he could be in line to make an appearance
in Toronto as soon as next year.

But as we've seen
this year, there's a lot that can happen - trades and injuries, in
particular - to young pitchers between the time that they sparkle in the
Midwest League and reaching the Majors.

Delabar's had a really nice run in the 11 games since he was acquired by
the Jays. I like the fact that he throws in the mid-to-upper 90's with a
delivery that doesn't look overly strenuous. "Easy cheese", as Uncle
Tabby would call it.

The output that you get from
bullpen arms varies wildly from year to year, so I'm not about to get
out the anointing oils and declare Delabar a back-of-the-pen fixture
quite yet. But there's something interesting there, and I don't mind
having the extra arms around. In case, you know, 20 guys go down with
injuries next year as well.

To start the season, assuming good health for both, I'd think it's
almost certain that this team comes north with Janssen as the closer,
and Santos as one of the late-inning bullpen arms. Which isn't to say
that they end the season with those roles. Heck, I wouldn't even put
much of a bet on them keeping those respective roles through the end of
April.

Well,
first off, I'd hope that these Quantum Leap abilities would be
accompanied by Scott Bakula's strong jaw line. That man is handsome,
right?

I'm sure that people have their own list of bad
trades that they'd undo - feel free to leave them in the comments! - but
there's no trade that I can think of that damaged the team in the long
term more than the David Wells - Mike Sirotka deal. Wells was coming off
what was thought to be a pretty good season back then (20 wins, though
with a 4.11 ERA), and it seems as though the Jays could have turned him
into something more than nothing.

Sirotka never threw a
single pitch for the Blue Jays, and the hole in the rotation created by
this something-for-nothing deal led the Jays to rely on a rogues
gallery of middling starters in the ensuing years. Remember Steve
Parris? Or Chris Michalak? Fun times.

Oh, it's so hard to pick a favourite, isn't it? There are a number of
games from the more recent editions of the Jays that have been pretty
great, but three games from the past actually stand out in my memory.

August 8, 1998 - Jays defeat A's 6-5:
Believe it or not, this was the first game I attended in person, and I
still remember the experience vividly. It was Ed Sprague's return to the
Jays after being traded to Oakland, and one play in particular always
stood out for me: A plastic bag blew onto the field, and before time was
called, Sprague took several steps away from his position to grab it.
Seeing this, José Canseco - who had just reclaimed his number 33 jersey
after Sprague's departure - bolted for third. Though he was thrown out
in the process, I always appreciated Canseco's awareness in trying to
take advantage of the situation.

Canseco made up for
the out by hitting a long bomb later that afternoon, and scoring the
winning run in the 10th - we didn't call them walk-offs then, did we -
on a Mark Dalesandro single. Shawn Green also homered, on one of the
prettiest swings I've ever seen. A lovely, arcing shot that landed just
over the maple leaf that adorned the wall in the outfield corners.

Notably,
this was the first and last time that I'd see Dave Stieb pitch. In the
midst of his comeback season, Stieb threw 1.1 innings of relief that
afternoon, taking the ball from starter Pat Hentgen.

April 22, 2000 - Jays defeat Yankees 8-2 - A complete game thrown by Kelvim Escobar against the Yankees and David Cone in an 8-2 victory on. I had great seats behind the Jays' dugout, and Tony Batista homered.

June 29, 2001 - Jays defeat Red Sox 8-4
- Another game with a great vantage point, just behind the In the
Action seats behind home plate. I yelled "Vamenos El Toro!" to Raul
Mondesi, who winked at me, then hit a grand slam off Bryce Florie. The
Jays wore the T-Bird. Tim Wakefield started for the Red Sox, and this
was probably the best view of a knuckleballer I'll ever have.

And with that fit of nostalgia behind us, let's look ahead...

@taoofstieb which 51s callup has impressed you the most? And a followup: are there any you'd like to see on the Jays fulltime in 2013?
— Mark (@thejockocracy) August 23, 2012

I really like Moises Sierra. He doesn't always look pretty - he moves
like an old pickup bouncing dangerously on a bumpy road - but he looks
as though he has the skills to stick as a bench player next year. He
hasn't been overwhelmed by the pitching (.817 OPS in 55 PAs), though
you'd like to see him take a few more walks.

From the
pitching side, Aaron Loup's really been something else, hasn't he? For a
guy who Jays fans barely knew a few months ago, he's now one of the
most appreciated arms in the bullpen. I can discern this from the fact
that when he gets the call, my Twitter feed doesn't blow up with
exasperation. I've already pencilled him in as a LOOGY for 2013.

Nope. If he were, it would be either Rajai Davis or Moises Sierra, as
I'm pretty confident that Anthony Gose is going to get another year of
seasoning in Triple-A. But both of those players seem more suited to a
bench role, and if there is a decent bat on either the trade or free
agent market, you'd have to presume that would be a spot to put them.
Maybe Melky Cabrera could start his image rehabilitation in Toronto?

Okay,
you've all had enough. I hope this Twitter Mail Baggy thing leaves you
in a better mood than when you arrive. Now go have fun, and enjoy the
waning days of the season.

---

1. Somewhat rambling and non-sensical, you say? Actually, just a reference to one of my all-time favourite comedy records, Eddie Lawrence's "The Old Philosopher". I suggest you take a listen. It might just lift your spirits.

With the BoSox making the big dump, I'd guess it's likely Greinke is going to get a fat payday to play in beantown sadly. If the Jays get anything, it'll have to be through trade or lower tier FA's. Boston is going to suck up all the good ones.