Networked tribes, system disruption and the emerging bazaar of violence. A blog about the future of conflict.

Friday, 15 August 2008

OPEN SOURCE WARFARE: Cyberwar

In less than an hour, I had become an Internet soldier. I didn't receive any calls from Kremlin operatives; nor did I have to buy a Web server or modify my computer in any significant way.Evgeny Morozov, Slate, An Army of Ones and ZeroesHow I became a soldier in the Georgia-Russia Cyberwar.

Cyberwarfare is a form of open source warfare (see Brave New War for a deep exploration of open source warfare) over the Internet fought by groups civilians for reasons of nationalism, revenge, and (worst of all) fun. It's messy, chaotic, and nearly impossible to control. The benefits of an open source cyberwar include:

Deniability. Offensive operations by government computers/personnel against a target nation is an act of war. Actions by civilian vigilantes is not and can be disowned. An inability to point to a an offending organization can make blame difficult to affix: note the speed at which the US tech press was willing to deny a Russian cyberwar against Estonia.

A huge talent pool. Rather than spend money on training a limited number of uniformed personnel (likely poorly), it's possible to draw on a talent pool of hundreds of thousands of participants (from hackers to IT professionals to cybercriminals). Given the rapid decay/turnover in skills, high rates of innovation, high compensation, and the value of real-world expertise, the best people for cyberwarfare don't work (nor will they ever) in the government. The best you can do is rent/entice them for a while.

Access to the best Resources/Weaponry. The best tools for cyberwarfare are developed in the cybercriminal community. They have vast and rapidly growing capabilities: a plethora of botnets, worms, compromised computers within target networks, identity information, etc. Further, these capabilities are cheap to rent.

The Problem
Unfortunately, in the US, there is nothing but confusion over cyberwarfare. The news that the Pentagon will not create a new USAF new Cyber Command added to a recent failed attempt by the US military to define what 'cyber deterrence' means and it becomes evident that the entire concept of 'cyberwar' is yielding little but confusion. Unfortunately, it appears little relief is in sight.

In contrast to failed US efforts, both China and Russia have adopted the OSW approach to cyberwarfare. How did they do it? Simply:

Comments

OPEN SOURCE WARFARE: Cyberwar

In less than an hour, I had become an Internet soldier. I didn't receive any calls from Kremlin operatives; nor did I have to buy a Web server or modify my computer in any significant way.Evgeny Morozov, Slate, An Army of Ones and ZeroesHow I became a soldier in the Georgia-Russia Cyberwar.

Cyberwarfare is a form of open source warfare (see Brave New War for a deep exploration of open source warfare) over the Internet fought by groups civilians for reasons of nationalism, revenge, and (worst of all) fun. It's messy, chaotic, and nearly impossible to control. The benefits of an open source cyberwar include:

Deniability. Offensive operations by government computers/personnel against a target nation is an act of war. Actions by civilian vigilantes is not and can be disowned. An inability to point to a an offending organization can make blame difficult to affix: note the speed at which the US tech press was willing to deny a Russian cyberwar against Estonia.

A huge talent pool. Rather than spend money on training a limited number of uniformed personnel (likely poorly), it's possible to draw on a talent pool of hundreds of thousands of participants (from hackers to IT professionals to cybercriminals). Given the rapid decay/turnover in skills, high rates of innovation, high compensation, and the value of real-world expertise, the best people for cyberwarfare don't work (nor will they ever) in the government. The best you can do is rent/entice them for a while.

Access to the best Resources/Weaponry. The best tools for cyberwarfare are developed in the cybercriminal community. They have vast and rapidly growing capabilities: a plethora of botnets, worms, compromised computers within target networks, identity information, etc. Further, these capabilities are cheap to rent.

The Problem
Unfortunately, in the US, there is nothing but confusion over cyberwarfare. The news that the Pentagon will not create a new USAF new Cyber Command added to a recent failed attempt by the US military to define what 'cyber deterrence' means and it becomes evident that the entire concept of 'cyberwar' is yielding little but confusion. Unfortunately, it appears little relief is in sight.

In contrast to failed US efforts, both China and Russia have adopted the OSW approach to cyberwarfare. How did they do it? Simply:

On Brave New War

G. Gordon Liddy Show (radio)...this is a seminal book in the truest sense of the term.. way ahead of the curve... go out and buy it right now -- G. Gordon Liddy

City JournalRobb has written an important book that every policymaker should read -- Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit)

Small Wars JournalWithout reservation Brave New War is for professional students of irregular warfare and for any citizen who wants to understand emerging trends and the dark potential of 4GW -- Frank Hoffman

Scripps Howard News ServiceA brilliant new book published by terrorism expert John Robb, titled "Brave New War," hit stores last month with virtually no fanfare. It deserves both significant attention and vigorous debate... - Thomas P.M. Barnett

Chet Richards DNIJohn has produced an important book that should help jar the United States and other legacy states out of their Cold War mindset. You can read it in a couple of hours – so you should read it twice...

Washington Times / UPIRobb correctly finds the antidote to 4GW not in Soviet-style state structures such as the Department of Homeland Security, but in decentralization -- William Lind (the father of 4th generation warfare).

Robert PatersonHaving painted a crystal clear picture of how a war of networks is playing out, he comes to an astonishing conclusion that I hope he fills out in his next book.

The Daily DishJohn Robb of Global Guerrillas has written the most important book of the year, Brave New War. - Daily Dish (The Atlantic)

Simulated LaughterWell-written. Brave New War reads more like an action novel than a ponderous policy book. - Adam Elkus

FutureJackedGo buy a copy of this book. Now. If you are low on cash, skip a few lunches and save up the cash. It is worth it. - Michael Flagg

ZenPunditThe second audience is composed of everyone else. Brave New War is simply going to blow them away. - Mark Safranski

Haft of the SpearThere aren’t a lot of books that make me recall a 12-year-old self aching for the next issue of The Invincible Iron Man to hit the shelves. Well done.
- Michael Tanji

Ed ConeHis book posits an Army of Davids -- with the traditional nation state in the role of Goliath. - Ed Cone (Ziff Davis)

Shloky.comThis is the first real text on next generation warfare designed for the general population and it sets the bar high for following acts. It is smart, it is a short read, and it will change your thinking. - Shlok Vaidya

Politics in the ZerosI suggest this is something Lefties need to start thinking about now, as that decentralized world is coming. - Bob Morris