Inside Every Playhttp://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com
Analyzing events within Boston sportsSun, 13 Apr 2014 16:30:46 +0000en-UShourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.5Red Sox: batting order may explain early offensive struggleshttp://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/04/13/home/red-sox-batting-order-may-explain-early-offensive-struggles/
http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/04/13/home/red-sox-batting-order-may-explain-early-offensive-struggles/#commentsSun, 13 Apr 2014 16:28:04 +0000http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/?p=693Last year, the Red Sox had one of the strongest lineups in the league thanks to the consistency at top of the order. It had Ellsbury leading off, and depending on the night, Victorino and Nava hitting either two or five, Pedroia hitting two or three, Ortiz three or four, and Napoli four or five.

All these players had very high OBP and were very tough on opposing pitchers. This year, the top of the lineup has failed to find any consistency because nobody has been able to fill the role left behind by Ellsbury since his departure during free agency.

During spring training, many expected Victorino to be the lead off hitter. He did it in the past and said he was comfortable with it. His ability to get on base and his speed on the base paths is an asset in the role. Unfortunately, he has since gone down with an injury and is currently out of the lineup.

Farrell then hoped that Nava would be able to fill the role. Nava had a breakout season last year, posting a .382 OBP and an OWAR of 3.4. Early this year, he has not had the same success. He has just 5 hits in 35 total at bats and does not look comfortable at the plate. He should move down the order, at least temporarily, until he finds some consistency—because it doesn’t make sense to have a guy with worst OBP in the lineup to be at the top of the order.

The Red Sox have recently put Johnny Gomes in the leadoff position. Gomes has a reputation for being tough on pitchers, but with a lifetime batting average of .244, he’s not the guy I would want getting the most at bats.

They have even tried Grady Sizemore, who leads the team in OBP, HR and is second in BA. But in three games in the leadoff role, Sizemore has gone 0-8 with a walk.

A big part of the reason why they Red Sox are 17 in the league in runs, 15 in OPS, and 9 in OBP is because they cannot find this consistency at the top of the order. Each time somebody new shifts into the leadoff spot, it shifts the whole line-up around. This could explain the Red Sox’s abysmal .190 batting average with runners in scoring position. Also, the more new players moves into the leadoff role and struggle, the more it shatters their confidence. Consistency starts at the top, and the longer it takes for the Red Sox to find their leadoff hitter; the longer fans will continue to see them struggle to score runs.

]]>http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/04/13/home/red-sox-batting-order-may-explain-early-offensive-struggles/feed/0Revis signing makes Patriot’s defense elitehttp://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/03/13/home/revis-signing-makes-patriots-into-super-bowl-favorites/
http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/03/13/home/revis-signing-makes-patriots-into-super-bowl-favorites/#commentsThu, 13 Mar 2014 04:34:28 +0000http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/?p=685In terms of points per game, the Patriots had the 10th best defense in the league last season—a superstar away from becoming elite. Just hours ago, the Patriots signed that superstar, cornerback Darrelle Revis, to a contract worth one-year, $12 million.

Revis, despite tearing his ACL two-years ago, is still considered the NFL’s best cornerback. Elite cornerbacks are rare. There are only a handful of players that can line up against an opponents best wide receiver and completely take them out of the game. Former Patriots cornerback Aqib Talib, when healthy, was one of those guys. And these players can really make a difference.

To get an idea of how much of an impact Revis will have, look at Talib’s best games as a Patriot. During weeks 1-6 last year, the Patriots defense allowed an average of just 16 points per game, which would have been good enough for third lowest in the league. During that time, Talib was matched up against some of the best receivers and shut them down, holding Julio Jones, A.J. Green, and Jimmy Graham to a combined 6 catches for 62 yards in consecutive weeks.

And Revis is better, more consistent, and healthier than Talib. According to Pro Football Focus, which uses advanced metrics to ranked the top players, Revis was the second best coverage cornerback to Richard Sherman and the best overall cornerback in the league last season, despite coming off an injury.

Great corners like Revis are very important for a defense. The NFL has become a passing league and to have a good ‘number one’ cornerback who can take out an opposing teams best receiver single handedly can make all the difference. Without an elite corner, teams have to put either and extra defender on an opponents best receiver or give them extra safety attention, which opens up weakness in other areas. With Revis, teams do not have to. Revis usually dominates when put against a teams best defender in single coverage, which is why opposing receivers are said to be on “Revis Island”. This allows the defense to be able to focus more on stopping the run or other receivers, giving an opposing offense less options.

The Patriots were able to get this type of skill set at great value. They could have put the franchise tag on Talib and paid him $200,000 less this season then what they are paying Revis—even though Revis is a superior coverage corner with little health risk. They also could have traded for Revis and paid him $4 million more than they are paying him right now. Since they are paying relatively little for arguably the best cornerback in the league, it still allows them to go out and possibly sign another free agent.

With the addition of Revis, and Wilfork and Mayo coming back from injury, the Patriot’s defense should make the jump from slightly above-average to Super Bowl caliber. Darrelle Revis was exactly the signing the Patriots needed to ensure they could once again compete for a championship.

]]>http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/03/13/home/revis-signing-makes-patriots-into-super-bowl-favorites/feed/0Rivalry renewed: New-look Yankees should contend with Red Sox for AL East titlehttp://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/03/08/home/rivalry-renewed-new-look-yankees-should-contend-with-red-sox-for-al-east-title/
http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/03/08/home/rivalry-renewed-new-look-yankees-should-contend-with-red-sox-for-al-east-title/#commentsSun, 09 Mar 2014 03:10:26 +0000http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/?p=678The Yankees had a down year last year. Plagued by injuries, they finished the 2013 season 12 games behind the Red Sox and out of the playoffs. GM Brian Cashman and the Yankees had a big offseason, giving their roster a new look so they can get back on top. Despite not signing Robinson Cano, they spent an estimated $465 million on signing big-named free agents like Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Masahiro Tanaka, and Carlos Beltran.

Here’s how this ‘new’ Yankee’s team looks:

Catching:

The Yankees upgraded at catcher this offseason by signing Brian McCann. Although McCann is a bit of a defensive liability, he is one of the best hitters in the league. Despite injuries, the seven-time All-star ranks first among catchers in home runs and RBIs since 2006. He could very well hit 40 homeruns in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees do not have much depth behind McCann. Their backup, Cervelli, has below-average talent. He had just 53 AB last year and should not be expected to be much of a contribution. The Yankees better hope that McCann can stay healthy and can catch 120+ games this season.

Infield:

Right now, the Yankees infield is a mess. Their four projected starters: Roberts, Johnson, Jeter and Teixeira combined for just 747 AB all of last season. Although injury prone and aged, given a full season, all of these player have potential to make a substantial impact in the Yankees order. Teixeira and Johnson have above average power and should both hit around 30 home runs. Jeter is a future hall of famer who hit .316 just two seasons ago. Roberts has always been an above average second baseman when healthy, who has a great knack of getting on base throughout his career.

They also have a lot of depth within the infield. Nunez, in Jeter and A-rods absence, hit .260 in over 300 AB last season. Brendan Ryan was a starter for most of his career in Seattle and St. Louis and is an above average fielder.

Outfield:

The Yankee’s strength is their outfield. They have five outfielders that could be stars on any team. When healthy, Ellsbury is the best leadoff man in the major leagues. Last season, he hit .298 with a .355 OBP. He is also a threat on the base paths, generating 52 stolen bases last year and has a career stolen base percentage of 84 percent.

Beltran is also very productive when healthy. He hit just under .300 with 24 home runs last year, and should thrive in the Yankee’s small ballpark. Gardner is a solid hitter with good speed as well. Soriano is a strong middle-of-the lineup bat who will likely playing DH. He should hit around 30 home runs next season. And Suzuki, despite his age, is a solid all around hitter and great defender who will provide tremendous depth in the outfield for the Yankees. Overall, the combination of speed and power in the outfield will make them a nightmare to opposing pitching.

Starting Pitching:

The Yankees have a pretty good starting rotation heading into the 2014 season. They upgraded this offseason getting Masahiro Tanaka from Japan. He is a top of a rotation starter with a 91-95 mph fastball, above average slider, great changeup and strong accuracy. The Yankees hope he can become their Yu Darvish (Texas’ ace from Japan) and stabilize their rotation.

Before Sabathia lost velocity on his fastball last season, he was a Cy Young candidate every single year. Now he’s more and a number two starter at best. Kuroda was probably the Yankees best starter last season providing stability and consistency in the rotation. Nova and Pineda are both young pitchers who have shown top of the rotation potential, but also have stretches of mediocrity. David Phelps will add depth as a sixths starter or in the case of an injury if needed.

Relief Pitching:

The Yankees got great production out of their top relievers last season, but a big part of that was because of Mariano Rivera. Now that Rivera has retired, the Yankees have some holes. Robertson, who did a great job last year as the set-up man, will move into the closers role. He should get about 40 saves this season. But behind him, the Yankees have some serious questions. Their next best reliever is probably Matt Thornton, a reliever who didn’t even make the Red Sox post season roster. Shawn Kelly, their next guy, is a solid arm who averages well over a strikeout an inning and could emerge as the teams set-up man. However, for the Yankees to be productive, they will probably need to pick up another solid reliever—because their bullpen in thin without Rivera.

Conclusion:

Assuming the Yankees sign another reliever, they should be around an 88-90 win team this coming season. They made a lot of improvements over the offseason, but they have a lot of question marks. If they stay healthy and if their aging veterans like Jeter, Teixeira, Sabathia, Roberts, or Beltran can be productive, they should win 90-95 games and compete for a World Series. But if they don’t, they will struggle to be .500.

On Sunday, Ryan Dempster announced that he was not going to pitch this upcoming season.

Dempster, who was in the final year of his two-year, $26 million deal said “I just feel given where I’m at with my health, how I feel personally, I just feel it’s in the best interest of both myself and the organization to not play this year.”

Dempster cited that he had a bone spur and disk issue in his neck that may have prevented him from being a dominant force on the mound.

Either way, this couldn’t have come at a better time for the Red Sox. Before Dempster announced his leave of absence, the team had a surplus of starting pitching. Not only did they have six capable big league starters, but four players in the minors (Workman, Britton, De La Rosa, and Webster) who all have major league starter potential.

Dempster, who moved to the bullpen during the playoffs (along with Dubront), likely would have been odd man out anyway.

So Demspster made a decision that best helped the team. He felt that he was not prepared to pitch at a high level this season, took accountability, and decided to leave $13.25 million on the table to either prepare for next season or retire.

Now the Red Sox have $13.25 million extra to potentially pick up a backup middle infielder or relief pitcher (or for a blockbuster deal at the deadline) for extra depth.

However, they lost a guy that manager John Farell says “provided a leadership role with his example – the way he went out and worked.”

This leadership, professionalism, and accountability were shown Sunday when Dempster decided to forgo $13.25 million and sit out a season he felt unprepared to play.

]]>http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/02/17/home/red-sox-dempsters-leaving-shows-true-professionalism/feed/0Patriots: How they can free up cap money to sign star free agentshttp://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/02/10/home/patriots-how-they-can-free-up-cap-money-to-sign-star-free-agents/
http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/02/10/home/patriots-how-they-can-free-up-cap-money-to-sign-star-free-agents/#commentsMon, 10 Feb 2014 05:44:15 +0000http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/?p=663The Patriot’s do not have a lot of money to work with this offseason.

According to ESPN Boston’s projections, they have a $4.1 million rollover from 2013 and currently have $123.8 million tied up in their roster (plus or minus about $2 million after the draft). With NFL salary cap projections set at about $126-130 million and the Patriots current rollover, they would have about $7-10 million to spend on new players as stands.

That number can and should change, which can be done in two ways: restructuring contracts and releasing players.

The first way to do this is by restructuring Vince Wilfork’s deal. He is currently due $11.6 Million on the books for next season. After being injured for most of last year, he does not have a lot of leverage in negotiations. It may be in Wilfork’s best interest to restructure his deal if he wishes to stay in New England. If they release him, they would get $8 Million back to use on other potential free agents. And since they played without Wilfork for most of the season, they learned how to win without him.

Despite this, the Patriots want Wilfork back because he is one of the premier Defensive Tackles in the league and a game changer. Expect both sides to work together and get a deal done that will save the Patriots $1-3 million this season.

If Wilfork restructures his deal, look to release Tommy Kelly in favor of Chris Jones, Joe Vallano, and Sealver Siliga who all exceeded expectations in the absence of Kelly and Wilfork. Those three players are all also due under $600 thousand this seasons. Kelly’s cap hit would be over $2.6 million (more than the three of them combined) and cutting him would save the team $2.15 million. Although he is a proven veteran, with the Patriots depth at Defensive Tackle, Kelly is not needed.

Another Nose Tackle, Isaac Sopoaga, is a player they should look to release. They signed him to fill up room in the middle when Wilfork went down. Unfortunately, he ended up being a huge bust. He is due $3.5 million this year, and if he is cut, it will save the Patriots $2.5 million. For a guy who would see very limited playing time this season, this would be an easy way to save money.

Adrian Wilson is another guy who is in a similar situation. The Patriots signed him last year with hopes he would emerge as the hard-hitting safety they have been looking for since Rodney Harrison, but early in the pre-season, fans saw this wasn’t going to be the case. He barely made it out of the preseason, and ended up spending the regular season on injured reserve. It is very unlikely he comes back next year—and if they cut him, they will save almost $1.2 million.

Another move would be to cut Dan Connolly. According to the Bleacher Report, this is almost a no-brainer. Connolly is due almost $4 million dollars this next season, despite his average performance. The Patriots have a lot of offensive line depth, and with Volmer coming back, Cannon playing strong, and the draft coming up, I would not be surprised to see Connolly get cut pending Ryan Wendell’s situation. This would save the Patriots $3 million towards the cap.

The Patriots could also save a couple million by restructuring Logan Mankins and Stephen Gostkowski’s giant contracts. Both players were pro-bowlers last season, so they have little incentive to take less money in 2014. However, if the Patriots were to extend their deals and backload their contracts, they could save maybe $2 million on this season books, so expect the Patriots to do so.

The Patriots will also save money by cutting guys come draft time and picking up undrafted free agents (with rookie contracts of $420 thousand) to fill in the role. For example, it would be unlikely to see guys like D.J. Williams left on the roster come next season. The Patriots should be able to find another $1 million though this method.

And finally, the Patriots can save money depending on their offseason plans. If they plan to sign one of the many big named free agent safeties on the market like Donte Whitner, Chris Clemons, Jarius Byrd, or T.J Ward, they could release Gregory to free up some money to make the deals.

In a perfect world, the Patriots should be looking at around $22-24 million they can spend on free agents. NESN also did a similar estimate stating the Patriots should have about $15-30 million to spend. They may be entitled to more if the NFL lets them free (or partially free) of Hernandez’s $8 million of dead cap space. As I’ve mentioned in my previous articles ( Why the Patriots need to re-sign Aqib Talib and Re-signing Edelman is a must for Patriots) most of the money should be spent on Talib and Edelman, or a player with similar value. They also need to find another center or interior lineman. After those contracts, they should still have a little money left over. In my next article, I will tell you how I think the Patriots should allocate the rest of that money. But given that figure, let me know how you would spend it in the comments below.

]]>http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/02/10/home/patriots-how-they-can-free-up-cap-money-to-sign-star-free-agents/feed/0Re-signing Edelman is a must for Patriotshttp://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/02/03/home/re-signing-edelman-is-a-must-for-patriots/
http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/02/03/home/re-signing-edelman-is-a-must-for-patriots/#commentsMon, 03 Feb 2014 05:22:43 +0000http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/?p=658Coming into this season, the Patriots lost three of their best four receivers: Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, and Brandon Lloyd. Their fourth receiver, Rob Gronkowski, was out for most of the season. Yet, the Patriot’s offense managed to average over 27 points per game and finish with a 12-4 record.

The biggest reason for this (besides maybe Tom Brady) is Julian Edelman.

Edelman does not get nearly enough credit for the work he has done in New England this year.

He played in all 16 games, made a huge impact, and when Brady needed to make a play, he threw the ball to him.

Edelman finished the year with 105 catches for over 1000 yards and six touchdowns. He was easily Brady’s most trusted receiver. He had very few drops, and was great at getting yards after the catch. The guy was Brady’s security blanket.

The second closest was Amendola, who caught a respectable 65 percent of the passes that went his way.

But other than that, the Patriots had Gronkowski, Dobson, and Thompkins, who caught just 58, 50 and 46 percent of the balls thrown in their direction.

Edelman was able to mask the lack of talent on this receiving core by his marvelous play. Without him, Brady completion percentage would have been under 58 percent (and probably lower because Edelman still caught a lot of balls despite being covered by the best receiver) and would have had easily had his worst season of his career.

Edelman also played his best in the close games, where other Patriot’s receivers consistently struggled.

Here are the eight games where the Patriots where the margin of victory for the Patriots was within a touchdown:

Week

Catches

Yards

Touchdowns

Margin of Victory

1 BUF

7

79

2

2

2 NYJ

13

78

0

3

4 ATL

7

118

0

7

6 NO

5

57

0

3

11 DEN

9

110

2

3

12 HOU

9

101

0

3

13 CLE

6

64

1

1

Some of the numbers don’t jump off the board, but he was making key third down catches in each one of these games that continued drives and allowed the Patriots to score. He also put up consistent numbers, and never shined away from the spotlight

In each of these games, it was the will of Brady and Edelman who helped this team to victory. Suppose New England did not have Edelman’s production, they could have easily gone 8-8.

Not only that, without Edelman, the opposing teams best corner would have covered Amendola, whose 54 catches was a product of Edelman ability to take coverage away from him.

The Patriots would have not been successful without Edelman this past year, and will not be successful this coming year without Edelman or a top-tier receiver that Brady can trust.

If the Patriots decide to let Edelman go, they better be looking to acquire Boldin or Decker from free agency—because outside of a healthy Gronkowski, this team has no playmakers on the receiving end.

]]>http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/02/03/home/re-signing-edelman-is-a-must-for-patriots/feed/0Why the Patriots need to re-sign Talibhttp://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/01/27/home/why-the-patriots-need-to-re-sign-talib/
http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/01/27/home/why-the-patriots-need-to-re-sign-talib/#commentsMon, 27 Jan 2014 14:05:17 +0000http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/?p=652The NFL has become a passing league. No question. The days of “ground and pound” and “defense wins championships” is now behind us. Without a talented quarterback with a good receiving core, it is nearly impossible to be competitive in the NFL.

Due to the growth of the passing offense, top defenses have to rely on being able to make the quarterback’s job difficult. The best and easiest way of doing this is taking away the quarterbacks best receiver and forcing him to beat you in other ways. But, there are only a few cornerbacks that are talented enough to do this. One of those guys is a healthy Aqib Talib. And if the Patriots want a top-teir defense, they need to resign this guy.

Before Talib suffered his hip injury in week 6, he was easily the Patriots MVP. Through the first six weeks of the season, New England held opponents to an average of just 16 points per game. Talib was a big reason for this. He began his hot streak with two interceptions against New York in week two, when the Patriots held them to just 10 points. Then in the following week, held his guy to just 34 yards catching yards and an interception. Then, in the three weeks after, he held Julio Jones, A.J. Green, and Jimmy Graham to a combined 6 catches for 62 yard.

From weeks three through six, he took on four top-10 talent receivers and completely shut them down. When healthy, he could be the best cornerback in the league (take that Richard Sherman!).

These guys are so hard to come by. Normally, these receivers dominate when left in single coverage against a corner—Talib cherishes these match-ups. And when you can rely on a guy to shut down the opposing team’s best target, it allows your safeties and linebackers to shift the focus on stopping the run or other players. A talent like Talib can take an average defense, and make it a great one.

Some people have questioned Talib’s attitude, believing it inhibits his ability to be a good teammate, role model or professional. But all signs show that he left that in Tampa when he was traded to New England last year. In fact, a lot of the players in the secondary said that they Talib has become a great role model.

Logan Ryan, speaking to WEEI mentions, “[Talib] has meant a lot. Watching him each and every day, the way he practices, he’s a tremendous competitor, even in practice. He doesn’t like to lose in anything. He goes first in every drill. And to see how he works, you can definitely tell how much fun he has.”

Talib himself has noticed this change since he has been in New England. “It’s totally different here,” Talib said. “It’s big games after big games. It’s Monday nights after Sunday nights, playoffs. Tom Brady is walking around here. There are countless people and media in the locker room. This is the NFL right here.”

Talib has become a good citizen and teammate since joining New England, and in his year and a quarter here, there is no reason to think that this will not change.

People have also looked at Talib’s health and found it a concern. He has missed at least one week every year he has been in the NFL. But, because of his upside, the Patriots should take the risk. When Talib is healthy, the Patriots easily will have a top-tier, Super Bowl caliber defense next year.

]]>http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/01/27/home/why-the-patriots-need-to-re-sign-talib/feed/0Patriots: analyzing why they lost to Denverhttp://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/01/20/home/patriots-analyzing-why-they-lost-to-denver/
http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/2014/01/20/home/patriots-analyzing-why-they-lost-to-denver/#commentsMon, 20 Jan 2014 18:25:31 +0000http://insideeveryplay.bangordailynews.com/?p=645On paper, the Patriots played the Broncos pretty well. They held Denver’s number one ranked offense to just 26 points and two touchdowns, but they were unable to capitalize on important aspects that would have helped them win the game.

Three days ago, I wrote in order to beat Denver, the Patriots would have to pressure Manning, force him to throw outside the numbers, not give up big plays, and control the clock. They did okay (not a great job) forcing him to throw outside the numbers and not giving up big plays, but they did a horrible job of putting pressure on Peyton Manning and controlling the tempo of this game.

Manning had all kinds of time behind his offensive line, allowing him to go 32-43 with two Touchdowns and no interceptions in the game.

The Patriots did okay forcing Manning to throw outside the numbers, but they did give him a lot of easy throws that allowed the Broncos receivers to get some yards after the catch. Overall, outside of the screens, they did well forcing Manning to throw downfield, and was probably not a reason why they lost.

They didn’t do a great job not giving up big plays. They gave up over five plays of 20 plus yards. One of those came on a key second and twenty on the opening drive of third quarter that impeded the Patriots momentum. But when they did give up big plays, they remained resiliant and often held the Broncos to a field goal. Once again, they did well enough containing Manning to prevent him from taking advantage of them after they gave up a big play.

The Patriots did however do a poor job at controlling the clock and getting pressure on Manning, which was a major reason why they lost.

Manning was getting all kinds of time in the pocket, which allowed him to find the open receiver. The Patriots did not have a single sack in the game. They were unable to make Manning rush his throws and make mistakes. The Broncos did not have a single turnover in the game and Manning completed just under three quarters of his passes.

On a day where the Patriots were facing four pro-bowl caliber receivers without their best cornerback for most of the game, they needed a better pass rush to get Manning off the field in order to have any chance to win.

The Patriots also did a poor job at controlling the clock. Right out of the gate, the Patriots were never able to establish the run against the Broncos. Credit Terrance Knighton and the Broncos front, who manhandled the Patriots run blockers. But because they could not establish the run, they were too one-dimensional and struggled to get first downs early in the game.

The Patriots could never find their rhythm against the Broncos until it was too late. Going into the fourth quarter, the Patriots had just three points. Although the offense was terrific in the final quarter, it took them all game to be able to string together long scoring drives.

The Broncos dominated the game clock possessing the ball for over 35 minutes, allowing them to control the tempo of this game.

On a normal day, the Patriots probably could have won if they held the Broncos to just 26 points, but yesterday they couldn’t. This was because they couldn’t establish any consistant offensive rhythm until it was too late and because they couldn’t get pressure on Manning to force him to make mistakes. Therefore, the Broncos controlled the clock and ultimately the game—which is why they are going to the Super Bowl.

Because of this, Denver has only lost three games this year. Three out of the five lowest point totals from the Denver offense were during those losses. So the key to victory is stopping Payton Manning and their high-powered offense, and scoring on every opportunity possible.

The Patriots have already beat the Broncos once this season—here’s how they can do it again:

1. Force Manning to throw outside the numbers

If you give Payton Manning the middle of the field, he will dominate the game. He is one of the NFL’s most accurate passers off all time, so if the Patriots give him the short pass right in front of him, they won’t be able to get him off the field.

To have any chance against Manning, they will have to take away the easy throws and force him outside. Although he is still dangerously accurate, he doesn’t have the same arm strength as he used to.

This is how they were able to stop Manning in their last meeting. They forced him outside and he completed under 53 percent of his passes in that game. Now, the weather was a lot worse in that game than it will be Sunday, but the same game plan should be applied. The only chance to get Manning off the field is to make him make a mistake. The only chance that will happen is by forcing longer throws outside the numbers by taking away his inside options. If the the Patriots do this effectively, they can force turnovers or have the Broncos use up the downs.

2. Put pressure on the Quarterback

Once again, in order to beat Peyton Manning, the Patriots will have to make Manning’s life difficult. By getting to the quarterback, it will make Manning to have to force throws and hopefully make a mistake. Otherwise, if Manning has time to allow his all-star cast of receivers to get open, the Broncos will score a lot of points.

3. Do not give up big plays

This is probably the most important thing the Patriots will have to do. If the Patriots give up plays for big yardage, it does one of two things: first, it gives the Broncos an opportunity to score in bunches (where they won’t be stopped), and it opens up the field for more short, easy completions for Manning. If the Patriots end up playing the to stop the deep ball, Manning will just tear them up on short passes, eat up the time of possession and tire the defense.

The Patriots cannot get defensive against the Broncos, because that’s when Manning finds a way to win.

4. Use the Clock effectively

The Patriots offense showed a great improvement since the beginning of the season. The biggest reason for this is because they became very good at controlling the tempo. If they do this by running a lot of plays and not allowing Manning to get in control of the game, they will have a very good chance. This means they must not get three-and-outs and turnovers.

The Patriots must generate first downs, find a rhythm and control the tempo. If the Broncos score quickly, do not allow their offense to get on the field right after.

When San Diego held Denver to just 20 points during the regular season, it was because they dominated the clock—almost doubling the Broncos time of possession. The Patriots offense could be the best defense against the Broncos by controlling the tempo of the game and not allowing Denver to get comfortable.

The Patriots ran for 234 yards and six touchdowns against the Colt’s on Saturday night.

They took what the Colts gave them. The Colts had the 26th ranked rushing defense this year, and the balanced Patriots made them pay. The Patriots offensive line pushed the Colts around, making openings that allowed the backs to average over five yards per carry.

The run really helped the Patriots achieve their game plan. It allowed them to slow things down, eat up the clock, score in the red zone (where they went 5-6) and not turn the ball over. Because of this, they generated 23 first downs and 43 points.

In the big picture, the Patriots once again showed they can win without Tom Brady playing too much of a role. Brady only threw 25 passes and did not throw a single touchdown, but the Patriots as a team scored six.

The Defense did not play too bad either. They held the Colts to under 400 total yards and forced Luck to throw four interceptions. Jamie Collins, in particular, had a great game. Not only did he have an interception, but he also made a couple great tackles on second efforts that stopped the Colts from getting into the open field and gaining momentum.

Saturday was a great all around win for the Patriots. If they can continue to play like they did, they will be hard to stop this postseason.