No matter which data aggregator you rely on, OPEC’s 11 out of the 14 members who have signed up to oil production cuts are delivering on their promise of a gradual 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) reduction.

In fact, an aggregation of projections from Bloomberg, S&P Global Platts, OPEC secondary-sources and the International Energy Agency (IEA) point to the cartel’s compliance actually being as high as 106% of their target.

The collective pledge of a 1.8 million bpd cut inked with 10 non-OPEC producers, including Russia, all the way up to March 2018, is not quite there yet simply, because the non-OPEC participants’ compliance languishes in the region of 86%.

Undeterred, the Saudi lowering of output continues. OPEC’s largest producer cut its production down to 9.93 million bpd in May, down 40,000 bpd April, according to S&P Global Platts; that’s way better than Riyadh’s quota allocation of 10.058 million bpd under the OPEC and non-OPEC agreement of 25 May.

Furthermore, Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih has said he will consider the need for deeper output cuts in July. “If for some reason we need to do more, we will consider to do more including [an] extension, and bigger cuts. Nothing is off the table but today nothing is on the table either."

Of course, given high inventories and rising US production – few view the move as having the desired impact on oil benchmarks, as both Brent and West Texas Intermediate have dabbled with a technically bearish market in the past few weeks.

There is another subtle point here – OPEC is visibly fretting about losing market share. According to ClipperData, a vessel tracking outfit, US imports from Saudi Arabia averaged around 1.1 million bpd in April and May, down from 1.34 million bpd. However, ClipperData believes there has now been a “fairly widespread rebound” in June cargo loading.

Along with the Saudis, ClipperData finds loadings from United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Angola to be rising as well. It can only mean one thing – the cartel is once again getting spooked about its market share. If non-OPEC takes up OPEC's oil market share the pressure on crude prices will actually aggravate.