The four moves that the Edmonton Oilers must make to contend for the 2013 playoffs

Bring in a new goalie, acquire a d-man, draft the top forward, use Horcoff/Belanger as checkers

There’s been a ton of talk since the season ended about what moves the Edmonton Oilers need to make to compete next year.

I’ve been given the issues some thought myself and have come to focus on four moves: parting with Nikolai Khabibulin; acquiring as good an NHL ready defenceman as the Oilers can find; drafting the top forward in the entry draft; and making the assignment of Shawn Horcoff and Eric Belanger to the third and fourth lines permanent.

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1. Bring veteran goalies who can compete for the top job with Devan Dubnyk.

All this indicates that Dubnyk should definitely be in contention for the starting role, but that the Oilers would also be prudent to hedge their bets and bring in one or two promising but unheralded veteran goalies to challenge Dubnyk for the starter’s job.

Perhaps Yann Danis, who did so well in Oklahoma City this season, can be one of those veterans, but the Oilers would be wise to bring in another to take Khabibulin’s place. The Oilers need to stage a competition for the starter’s job and Khabibulin has proven he’s not up to that job at this point. Perhaps he can catch on with another NHL team that has a set starting goalie and only needs a back-up.

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2. Sign or trade for as strong a defenceman as you can get.

Contrary to popular belief, the Oilers have enough talent to have at least an average top four d-man unit. With Jeff Petry and Ladi Smid in the top pairing, the Oilers have two defencemen heading into their primes who have already played strong hockey against strong competition, the definition of a useful top-pairing NHL d-man.

On the second pairing, Nick Schultz was an adequate replacement for Tom Gilbert, while Ryan Whitney has shown in the past he can get the job done.

If Whitney isn’t asked to play the toughest competition, and if can stay as healthy as he was in the final weeks of the season, he can help the Oilers win.

Of course, with injuries to others and his own lingering health issues, it’s unlikely that the Oilers won’t need major reinforcements this year at some point on the blueline.

For that reason, management must make a major push to bring in one more d-man who can play in the Top Four, maybe a free agent like Justin Schultz, maybe the top veteran free agent from Europe, maybe some other vet in a trade.

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3. Make the safest bet you can with the first overall pick

Go with the odds in the draft and take the best forward, which is almost certainly Nail Yakupov, with the first overall pick.

The odds are about twice as good that a team will hit a home run by drafting a forward than drafting a defenceman with the top pick. It is simply that much easier to identify and project elite scoring talent than it is to identify and project elite defensive talent.

No doubt a few of the excellent young defensive prospects in this year’s draft will become elite NHL defenceman, but it’s difficult to tell which defender that might be: Ryan Murray or Morgan Rielly or Mat Dumba or Jacob Trouba or Griffin Reinhart. A few of them will be great, but a few will be busts.

Yakupov? It’s much more likely he will pan out. As CHED’s Bob Stauffer points out repeatedly on Oilers Now, there’s been few surer things in the NHL draft in the past decade than the very top forward prospect out of the Ontario Hockey League.

With the top pick, the Oilers are lucky. They don’t have to make a riskier bet on a d-man. They can go with far more of a sure thing in Yakupov.

In the end, if the Oilers still need an elite defenceman in a few years, it’s a much better bet to draft Yakupov and trade one of the team’s top young forwards for a veteran d-man than it is to draft an 18-year-oldd-man and hope he develops into the new Drew Doughty.

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4. Make Horcoff and Belander’s assignments to the checking lines permanent

Make it clear to Shawn Horcoff and Eric Belanger they are the third and fourth line centres heading into next season, expected to do all the worst, nastiest jobs, and do them with relish. Horcoff’s play dropped off last season. In 2o10-11, he helped create 3.5 scoring chances per game at even strength, while making mistakes on about 1.5 against. This past year, however, he only chipped in on 3.0 chances per game, while making mistakes on 2.0 per game.

So he was less effective both on offence and on defence. From watching him, it looked to me like he lost a bit of flexibility and dexterity on the attack, meaning that when he was in a tight spot he was less likely to make a good play. I see him as a third-line checker, a guy who plays as many tough minutes as you can find against tough competition, taking tons of own zone faceoffs.

this will also free up the easier minutes, especially at home where the Oilers get the last change, for fellow centres Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Sam Gagner (or Taylor Hall, if he’s tried out at centre).

Belanger, meanwhile, was utterly ineffective in a third line role last season, but did much better in the final 25 games of the year when he was shifted back to play on the fourth line and help kill penalties.

Belanger can do just fine in the old Marty Reasoner role. He can help the Oilers win in that role. So play him there.

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