Friday, July 29, 2016

Missouri:Mason-Dixon has released the second survey out of the Show-Me state this week. Unlike the previous Survey USA poll, this one was in the field during the interregnum between conventions. The Survey USA poll overlapped with the last couple of days of the Republican convention in Cleveland. That timing may or may not have had an effect, but the differences between the two polls is remarkably stark. A +10 for Trump and now a +1 for Clinton establishes quite a range. But split the difference and it the polls collectively fit in the context of the rest of the polling in Missouri. It is a Lean Trump state, but one where Clinton's numbers are more stable than Trump's. The variation in the Trump number is the driving force behind the fluctuations in the race in the state.

The addition does shift Missouri slightly -- up one cell -- in the Electoral College Spectrum and pushed the Show-Me state onto the Watch List below.

New Hampshire:
FHQ will preface its comments on the new InsideSources survey of New Hampshire by saying that Donald Trump has not led in any 2016 polls in the Granite state. That said, either the nine point advantage the New York businessman has in the poll is a signal of a sea change in the race in New Hampshire or it is an outlier. The hunch here is that it is the latter, but as always, time and additional polling will tell that tale.

The poll does have the effect of reducing Clinton's overall advantage in the state by about half and taking the Granite state off the Watch List. The change on the Spectrum below is minor though not without significance. The atypical Trump advantage in this poll shifts New Hampshire out of the troika it had been a part of with Pennsylvania and Virginia and now aligns it more with Iowa.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Iowa and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, Iowa, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1

State

Switch

Alaska

from Lean Trump

to Toss Up Trump

Arizona

from Toss Up Trump

to Toss Up Clinton

Arkansas

from Strong Trump

to Lean Trump

Missouri

from Lean Trump

to Toss Up Trump

New Jersey

from Strong Clinton

to Lean Clinton

Pennsylvania

from Toss Up Clinton

to Lean Clinton

South Carolina

from Lean Trump

to Strong Trump

Tennessee

from Lean Trump

to Strong Trump

Utah

from Toss Up Trump

to Lean Trump

Virginia

from Toss Up Clinton

to Lean Clinton

1Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.