Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the third quarter of 2011 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter) according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.3 percent. The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 22, 2011. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected accelerations in PCE and in nonresidential fixed investment and a smaller decrease in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a larger decrease in private inventory investment.

Original post: The biggest report of the day by far: At 8:30 AM Q3 GDP comes out.

Consensus estimates are for 2.5% right now, which is well up from 1.3% in the previous quarter.

More importantly, estimates have been nicely ticking up day in and day out throughout the last few weeks, as the data has come in better than expected (although several analysts gave their estimates a shave after yesterday's durable goods).