Studying the Future Internet

Since its inception, the Internet has evolved from a purely
technical artefact, in which all creators shared a common goal of
interconnecting computers globally, toward a social phenomenon through a
combination of uses and that evolution continues. The social and economic aspects that
affect the Internet are as complex and interwoven the society and the economy itself. This
complexity is based on the interdependence of disciplines that study changes
in human nature, where economics, political science, humanities, psychology and
law are linked to concepts like privacy, freedom of expression, intellectual
property and social networks but also to topics like education, security, regulation,
private life, communication, business, trust, intangible incentives, to name
but a few. The “real world” users of the internet (i.e. consumers, citizens,
students, politicians, scholars, artists, parents, etc.) constitute a powerful
but also dynamic organism that has to be approached from a broad and holistic
perspective.

In this channel, we present the viewpoints of those who are studying the Future Internet. The aim is to provide access to wider social and economic challenges and trends so that discourse and debate on Future Internet research moves from a purely technological viewpoint to one that is balanced by real socio-economic needs.

For this year's edition, emphasis has been placed on consumer perceptions of broadband speed, on the quality of experience of access services, on consumer affordability, on factors for subscribing and switching between communication service providers and on the transparency of tariff information.

More specifically, the main themes of
the summary are:the different types of telephone access
available to individuals and in the home, Internet access and its quality, penetration of communication service packages, consumer sensitivity to the speed of the
Internet connection,the quality of experience of communication
services, affordability of telephone and Internet services, the transparency of communication service
pricing, factors in switching Internet service
providers and service package providers and television access and means of reception.

Penetration rates of Electronic Communication Services
in the European Union

When broadband and
narrowband access are combined, approximately seven out of ten EU
households have home Internet access (68%). This proportion has increased by four percentage points since the 2012
report. The main
reasons are lack of interest (65%), cost (19%), and that either the respondent
or their household members did not know what the Internet was (7%).

Consumer sensitivity to Internet connection speed

The survey found
that nearly six out of ten respondents (57%) did not know the maximum download speed of their Internet connection.Furthermore,
nearly a quarter of the respondents who knew their download speed said that
their actual Internet download and upload speeds did not match the terms of
their contract.

The price and
technical features of the connection (maximum speed and download capacities)
are the main selection criteria when subscribing to an Internet connection. Overall, slightly
less than half of all respondents would be willing to change their Internet packages
for higher speed or greater downloading capacity (45%), broken down as follows:

29% of the
respondents would only change service provider to get a higher speed connection
for the same price,

5% would only pay more for a faster Internet connection
offered by their current Internet provider and

11% respondents would be willing
to move for either both options.

Quality of experience of communication access services

Slightly
less than three out of ten respondents had been blocked from accessing online
content or applications either often or sometimes while using the Internet from
home (29%). Furthermore, approximately four
in ten respondents (43%) either sometimes or often experienced difficulties
accessing online content and applications from home due to insufficient
Internet speed or downloading capacity.

On the other hand, the proportion of
respondents who reported that access to online content or applications is
sometimes blocked on their mobile phones has slightly increased to 20% from 16% in the previous report. Furthermore, around
four in ten respondents thought their mobile Internet connection provider was
responsible for blocking content (37%) and more than three in ten thought the
application or content provider was responsible (32%). Approaching one in five
respondents believed they were blocked from accessing content due to geographical
copyright restrictions (17%) or by the manufacturer of their mobile phone
(15%).

Affordability

Over half of EU
citizens limit their national and international mobile phone calls because of concerns about cost (respectively 55% and
54%). Around one-third
of EU citizens (34%) use the Internet to make cheap phone calls (using voice
over IP technologies), which is a seven percentage points increase since the
2012 report.

Price transparency and switching service package
providers

Slightly less than
one third of EU citizens disagree that it is easy to compare the terms of service packages (29%), a 3-point increase
since the 2012 Eurobarometer report. More than four in
ten respondents reported that they have considered changing their bundle
provider (42%), a nine percentage point increase since the previous survey (33%).

The Future Internet (FI) promises
much if only in respect of the opportunity which might be available to exploit
all the benefits of the Internet as it is now, but bigger, better, more secure
and more efficient. As the technology develops, more and more potential is
created. Bring users into the picture – as has been seen to be essential on
many occasions in SESERV, not least the workshops in Oxford, Athens and
Brussels, as well as the focus groups described in D2.2 and D3.2 – then there
are benefits to them in various areas, such as access to and the generation of content;
the potential to engage in ad hoc as
well as existing on-line communities; but also to be able to learn about and
effect the environment; all of which will ultimately have an effect on the
network and infrastructures underlying all these activities. In each of these
areas – content, community, the environment, and networks – as we move forward
there will doubtless be risks and challenges that must be addressed (the red
boxes in the figure), though at the same time there will be greater opportunities
especially for inclusion and on-line presence (the green boxes). The challenges
and opportunities are discussed more fully in D2.2. Here, let’s just
summarise SESERV’s recommendations for a way forward.

Having
identified the main FI ecosystem stakeholders, the two SESERV
co-ordination work packages engaged with most of them directly and in
discussion (in the figure below, we are specifically interested in those
outlined with red boxes. For more detail, see D2.2 and D3.2 ). In drawing together the discussions, not least from the
focus groups, we came up with recommendations that fall into eight different
categories:

Regulation and public policy: which we’d begun
to discuss with [WeGov]

Project design and development: not least based
on the technology discussions we had early on [Ref] and the focus groups

Internet Data: a leitmotif for societal as well
as economic consideration – who owns what? what happens to it? how is it
protected? etc

Citizenship, Awareness and Education: a theme in
both the Digital Agenda for Europe and Horizon2020: how do we make the FI serve
all?

More bosses should tweet

Richard Branson recently nailed his colours to the mast very much in favour of social networks. From the CEO of the Virgin Group, it is
perhaps no surprise that he claims to be an active participant in social media
because it is important for his business. He recognises, though, that there is
more to it: Embracing social media isn’t just
a bit of fun, it is a vital way to communicate, keep your ear to the ground and
improve your business. (loc cit)

But employers don't play fair...

Some people are a little sceptical about such an approach
though, warning against potentially embarrassing posts to social network sites
that are visible not only to friends, but to work colleagues and managers.
There’s no doubt, though, that if used wisely social media can boost an
applicant’s chances of success. 91% of employers review prospective employees via social
networking sites, 76% using facebook, 53% twitter and 48% LinkedIn; 47% look on
sites after receiving an application and before even talking to the candidate.
A staggering 69% claim to have rejected a candidate on the basis of what they
saw online (inappropriate photos, comments, behaviours and so forth); whilst
almost the same number (68%) hired a candidate on the strength of the
impression created (statistics from Reppler, which contains other useful statistics about on-line activity).

A Study of CEO’s

In his LinkedIn post, Branson referred to a fairly
extensive IBM study of CEO's and their attitudes to social networks. 1,709 CEO's
and senior public sector leaders across 18 industries and 64 countries were
contacted. In summary, the industry leaders agreed a set of three imperatives
for ongoing success:

Empowering employees through values: employees
across organisations are being encouraged to learn from each other and pool
resource and knowledge to help drive innovation. 65% of them saw ethics and
values, as well as 65% a collaborative environment as significant for their
success. Only 58% by comparison highlighted purpose and mission.

Engaging customers as individuals: efforts to
understand customers (see “Commercial exploitation…” below) and involve all
stakeholders in the value chain (see “Sustainability”), respondents underlined
a real need to involve their customers directly. It is just as important to
step up an understanding of individual customer needs as it is to improve response
times to market needs (72% of respondents in each case).

Amplifying innovation with partnerships: now
more than ever, organisations are partnering even with those who previously
would be regarded as competitors, and those from completely different or new
industries. External partnering is seen as a key source of innovation (59% of “outperformers”
recognise this as opposed to 46% of their less successful counterparts).

The push in IBM terms is about “leading through connections”;
underlying it all, though, is participation, which – as outlined below – has both
social and economic implications.

And a socio-economic take

Through the various workshops SESERV organised ( Oxford,
Athens, Brussels) and the associated focus groups reported on in this year’s
deliverables (D1.5, D2.2, and D3.2), we have highlighted the need for all of the FI stakeholders we have identified to be engaged: notwithstanding the
knock-on effects for network operators, there is an increasing drive for
participation: users are driving innovation, typically via non-PC
devices, even around what would previously have been branded as having
little cultural value. Over time, we have seen demonstrated:

Commercial exploitation of social networking sites: On
the one hand, more and more commercially useful information can be gathered
from such socially-focussed engagement on-line (SocIoS, SOCIETIES, the IBM Smart Planet campaign). Our FI presence seeds the commercial innovation the IBM
study emphasised as important. But it is not necessarily the services and
applications assumed for driving the virtuous cycle (link); instead it is to do
with

Participation: Despite perceived trust issues (including privacy and how we actually measure and maintain trust), the WeGov study
showed (among other things) that end-users want
to engage and are willing to
participate at any level. It is such participation and a need for on-line
presence as well as collaboration which are driving progress for the FI (end-users are already participating on their own terms); and at the same time

Sustainability: the
need for collaboration and the beneficial effects on innovation and
sustainability have been recognised for some time. Werbach,Global CEO of Saatchi and Saatchi, highlights transparency (letting people know what’s
important and what’s going on), engagement
(including all relevant parties) and networking
(collaborating with similar and related parties) are essential in moving
forward on sustainability. The Boston Consultancy Group talk along the same lines of the need to involving multiple stakeholders because it is beneficial if not essential for sustainability, and just as the CEO's in the IBM study said, there should be cooperation internally as well as externally across the whole value
chain.

They (the Boston Consultancy Group) point to an ambiguity of perceptions, with “novice
practitioners” focused solely on environmental and regulatory factors, whereas
those with “more knowledge about sustainability” consider social, economic and
political impacts as an “an integral part of value creation” requiring
collaboration across the entire value chain. In exactly the same way, Branson’s call for CEO’s to exploit the power of social
media reflects what has become increasingly clear during SESERV-initiated FISE
conversations: the Future Internet must be based on technology that supports
the creation and future growth of online communities. Industry will benefit
from mining such socially-focused activity; and infrastructure providers will
have no choice but to meet the resource challenges head on.

Source: SESERV User-Centricity Survey (29 of 55 total respondents reported using tools to engage with users). Chart created by Anne-Marie Oostveen.

The SESERV project surveyed future internet projects, and asked them to identify the methods they used to understand their users and uses of the technology they are developing. As you can see in the above chart, while traditional methods such as questionnaires, focus groups, and interviews were mentioned by about 1/3 of respondents, a wide variety of other tools and techniques were also reported, ranging from user diaries, to eye-tracking studies, to stimuli including comic strips and theatre.

The wide variety of techniques suggests that user-centric approaches to design are an important part of the FI ecosystem, but that no single technique dominates for doing so. It also suggests that there would be potential interest in workshops on methods for engaging users using some of the most innovative techniques.

82% of EU citizens who have broadband
Internet access at home are unwilling to pay more for a faster Internet
connection

Slightly more than half of EU citizens (58%) do not
know what their maximum download speed is (58%).

Slightly less than half of respondents (46%) sometimes
experience difficulties accessing online content and applications due to
insufficient speed or capacity, but only 8% reported experiencing these
inconveniences often.

Only 14% of EU citizens would be willing to pay more for a
faster Internet connection. Among those
who would pay more, 39% want to be able to upload or share content.Respondents who are willing to pay
more for an Internet connection with a higher speed or downloading data
capacity are more likely to have encountered difficulties accessing online
content. Indeed, among those respondents who were unwilling to pay more for a
faster Internet connection, over half (57%) report never experiencing
difficulty accessing content due to limited speed. By contrast, more than six
out of ten respondents who would be willing to pay more experienced
difficulties accessing content (62%). The more the respondents are willing to
pay the more frequently they experienced problems. Nearly three respondents out
of ten (29%) willing to pay 33% or more experienced frequently difficulties
whereas they are 15% of those who are willing to pay up to 15% more.On average, more than eight out of ten EU citizens
would not be prepared to pay more for an Internet connection with a higher
speed or a greater downloading capacity (82%). Most of these citizens would
only be willing to pay up to 15% more (11%).

A quarter of EU citizens have experienced blocking of
online content when surfing the Internet from home (26%). Those
respondents who are not prepared to pay more have most likely less experience
with blocking of online content, compared with those who would pay more for a
faster connection (26% and 35%, respectively). However, there is a different
pattern among respondents who are ready to pay more. Those respondents who are
ready to pay up to 15% more, or between 16 and 33% more, are more likely to
have experienced blocking of online content than those who are willing to pay
more than 33% more for higher speed (35% and 34% vs. 26%).Most
experiences of blocking appear to relate to Internet users trying to access
multimedia resources. The most common activity interrupted by blocking was
watching videos (33%), followed by listening to music (21%), downloading free
video content (19%) and watching live events (17%). Filtering whilst playing
online games (17%), downloading free audio content (15%) and watching
television (13%) were also mentioned by a substantial proportion of
respondents. Only one in twenty (6%) respondents reported having experienced blocking
whilst trying to make Internet phone calls, although this may reflect the
relatively low incidence of Internet phone calls.

One
in five users of mobile Internet has experienced blocking of content (20%), a
figure five percentage points lower than the levels of blocking experienced
when surfing from home.

Half of EU citizens are not aware that network operators
and service providers may monitor the content they access (49%).

EU citizens generally oppose
monitoring by service providers. 85% of respondents agreed that service
providers should inform before monitoring for any reason. They also largely oppose to
monitoring of traffic for marketing reasons. 87% of respondents agreed that
service providers should request authorisation before monitoring for marketing
purposes.

A large majority of EU citizens (86%)
would want to be told if any of their personal data was lost, stolen or altered
in any way. 72% would want to be told under any circumstances, but 14% of
citizens would only want to know if they were at risk of financial harm.

Awareness of content monitoring by
network operators and service providers is fairly limited. Fewer than half of
EU citizens (43%) are aware of this practice.

Citizens in all Member States widely
agreed that service providers should inform customers before monitoring their
traffic data and communications.

Two-thirds of households have Internet access (64%). Among households without an Internet connection, the
top reason given for not having one is that all household members are
disinterested in accessing the Internet (63%). These figures relay an increase
of four percentage points since spring 2011. Cost, as an explanation, has
decreased in importance, down to only 18%, compared with 21% in the previous
survey. The changes in the reasons may reflect the more widespread levels of
Internet access

Broadband growth stalls for
the first time

Only a very small proportion
of households in Europe have narrowband Internet

Access to the Internet
continues to increase but at a slower rate

Price is the most important factor when subscribing to the
Internet. Nearly half noted cost as their first
consideration (45%) followed by maximum download speed (13%), the fact that the
Internet subscription is part of a bundle (12%) and the customer service
offered (7%). No other factor was cited by more than 5% of respondents as their
first consideration.Among those respondents who correctly
stated the maximum download speed in their contract, two-thirds (67%) agreed
that the speed matched the terms of their contracts. Four
out of ten EU citizens experience difficulties accessing online content and
applications due to insufficient speed or capacity (42%). However, only 8%
claim that such difficulties are experienced often.

Slightly fewer than half of
households buy bundled communications services (43%). The most commonly cited aspect of bundled services is
the convenience of a single invoice (43%), followed by the perception that they
are cheaper than paying for each service separately (31%).

Only a third of respondents have
considered changing Internet Service providers (33%) or bundle providers (33%). Most households (62%) have not
considered changing their Internet provider

Telephone access is nearly universal
(98%) among EU households.

There has been no shift in the types of
telephone access across the EU since spring 2011 or winter 2009. Most
households have both fixed and mobile access (62%) and this EU average has
remained stable.

Making phone calls via the Internet has remained broadly stable since spring
2011 (27%, down from 28%). Internet telephony is most popular in NMS12, where
32% of households use it on average.

Most mobile phone users limit their
calls with their mobile phones because they are worried about communication
charges (63%).

Identify the key drivers and opportunities for the
development of the European Internet industry, its growth and competitiveness;

Estimate the potential future economic contributions of
the European Internet industry;

Estimate the economic impacts of the Future Internet PPP
and its potential successor; and

Identify, assess and address the future barriers to
competitiveness of the European Internet industry.

There's a useful executive summary and factsheet for those who want the elevator pitch. I could not help observing the final take away remark in the factsheet about the FI-PPP:

Under ideal conditions, effects unleashed by the FI PPP could contribute up to €28 billion per year to the EU economy, corresponding to 0.24% of EU GDP, while the projected effects of the FI PPP+ could be even higher

"Under ideal conditions" seems to be a key phrase and interesting optimistic headline. Digging more deeply you can find that the study made various model runs with different assumptions about the success of FI PPP. The headline GDP contribution is based on the assumption "....that FI-Ware and all use cases are completely successful". On p82 you will find the impact for FI-PPP should they be partially successful. Here two important conclusions are revealed. First,
the degree of success of the infrastructure activities (FI-Ware) and of the use cases
both determine the overall macroeconomic impact of FI PPP. Second, the size of the
GDP effect depends much more on the success of the use cases than on the success of
the infrastructure related activities. In numbers, if the Core Platform is not successful and all the use cases are the contribution to GDP will be €24 bn. This will no doubt be a significant point for debate

Data protection and the legal frameworks to support it are an urgent concern of the Future Internet’s user base. Legal expert Aleksandra Kuczerawy tells us the critical areas to look out for, and how to prepare for the legal advances now developing.

The workshop will take place in Brussels on June 20, 2012, right before the Digital Agenda Assembly. Participation is open and free-of-charge. Take the opportunity and register on-line.

On the Speaker

Aleksandra is a legal researcher in the Interdisciplinary Research Center for Law and ICT (ICRI) at the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven. She joined ICRI in November 2007. She was a part of the study team conducting the independent study on indicators for media pluralism in the European member states, commissioned by the European Commission (DG INFSO). She also conducted research in the area of Spatial Data Infrustructures (SDI) while working on access and licensing protocols in the eContentplus OneGeology Europe project. Currently she conducts research in the field of privacy and identity management in new technologies. She works on the European Project PrimeLife (Privacy and Identity Management in Europe for Life). Lately she has expanded her research field to legal aspects of User Generated Content (UGC) in the European Project SocIoS (Exploiting Social Networks for Building the Future Internet of Services) where she is working on privacy aspects as well as liability of Internet Intermediaries. Moreover, Aleksandra is an assistent editor of the International Ecyclopeadia of Law (IEL) - Cyber Law.

IDC looks at the growing market segments of the Future Internet, and how the social and economic context of its “Information Society Index” applies to its industry stakeholders. The analysis and forecast will set a context for much of the discussion throughout the day.

The workshop will take place in Brussels on June 20, 2012, right before the Digital Agenda Assembly. Participation is open and free-of-charge. Take the opportunity and register on-line.

On the Speaker

Stephen Minton is a Vice President and analyst at IDC covering global ICT markets. He manages IDC’s industry-standard Worldwide Black Book research, which tracks ICT spending in 54 countries. In this role, he co-ordinates IDC’s global IT spending research and analysis, helping IT organisations around the world with their planning, resource allocation and competitive analysis initiatives. Additionally, he is responsible for the IDC Information Society Index, which benchmarks countries according to IT and Internet socio-economic impact and penetration.

Stephen is the author of papers which focus on globalisation and the spread of technology into emerging markets, and is a regular speaker at major international events and conferences on the subject of macro-level ICT trends. In 2002, he addressed the United Nations in New York, speaking to UN ambassadors on the subject of the Information Society. He is regularly quoted for his views on ICT market trends by major media publications, and has featured on CNBC and Bloomberg television.

Stephen previously worked with Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) in a marketing role. Originally from Hartlepool in the North of England, he graduated from the University of Salford in 1995. He has also worked in the field of consumer market research with Millward Brown International. He moved from IDC’s UK office to the United States in 2001, where he spent ten years in Massachusetts before returning to the UK in 2011. He currently lives with his wife and two daughters in Hartlepool, England.

The Network of Excellence Internet Science is currently inviting applications from early career researchers for the first Summer School to be held in Oxford from 12-18 August 2012.

The theme of the summer school is "Internet Privacy and Identity, Trust and Reputation Mechanisms," with sub-themes addressing online identity and ACTA/SOPA/CISPA.

Academic Programme

The principal aim of the programme is to promote interdisciplinary discussion of issues related to Internet Science among early career researchers (advanced PhD students and those in the first four years of their research career) engaged in research related to Internet privacy and identity, trust and reputation mechanisms. Daily activities will be structured around morning lectures and afternoon discussions aimed at developing participants’ thinking on a range of issues central to the Internet. Participants will have the opportunity to discuss their research with faculty and other early career researchers. A range of social events will provide informal opportunities for continued discussions and networking among participants.

The summer school will draw upon the strengths of the Network of Excellence in Internet Science (described below) and will involve participation of many of its members, in addition to colleagues from partner institutions.

Benefits of participation

Participants will meet and work with a diverse group of their peers, a considerable benefit for researchers who may not have large academic peer groups in their own departments. Additionally, participants will:

Contribute to ongoing discussions of research and issues related to Internet Science

Attend lectures from renowned experts and participate in multi-disciplinary discussions

Engage in academic and professional networking

Research areas

We welcome applications from early career researchers in any discipline whose work in the field of Internet research engages with the theme of the summer school and reflects the disciplinary base of the Network of Excellence in Internet Science, as described below.

About the Network of Excellence in Internet Science

The Network of Excellence in Internet Science aims to develop an integrated and interdisciplinary scientific understanding of Internet networks and their co-evolution with society. The network is composed of over thirty research institutions across Europe from a variety of disciplines including physics, sociology, game theory, economics, political sciences, network engineering, computation, complexity, networking, security, mathematics, humanities, and law, as well as other relevant social and life sciences. Its main objective is to enable an open and productive dialogue between all disciplines that study Internet systems from any technological or humanistic perspective, and which in turn are being transformed by continuous advances in Internet functionality.

Fees and activities

Delegate fees are £900 and this includes 7 nights’ en suite accommodation at Queen’s College, daily breakfast, lunch (including one BBQ) and refreshments, and two evening college dinners. Summer school participants will have an opportunity to take part in Oxford social activities.

Applications must be submitted by 5p.m. (GMT) on Friday, June 1st. We will notify successful applicants by Friday, June 15.