But the deal for "Thursday Night Football" — despite its
high ratings and ad revenue — may not actually be worth it,
according to Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne.

"We estimate CBS has lost over $200 million from this
contract over the last two seasons (direct ad [revenues] less
rights fees and production
costs)," Swinburne and his team wrote in a
note published on Monday before the announcement of the new deal.

They continued: "These losses, for the network or networks that
secure the rights, will only balloon, in our view — reaching
~$170 million in 2016 and growing from there."

CBS paid around $37.5 million per game to the NFL under its
earlier deal. With the new deal, this comes out to around
$45 million a game, which is what Morgan Stanley expected under
its new assumptions for losses related to this package in
2016.

Based off of Swinburne's analysis, CBS and NBC will
lose $21.5 million per broadcast for a total decline of $107.5
million for each network next year.

CBS and NBC will each air five games this upcoming season.

Morgan
Stanley

Swinburne also argues that not only is the "Thursday Night
Football" package losing the networks money, but replacing it
with a normal primetime show could produce serious savings.

He factored in the average ratings for a CBS
show, advertising revenues for CBS on shows with
similar ratings, licensing, and retransmission revenue and
subtracted the average cost of creating a prime-time show.

"We estimate CBS could take nearly $200 million in losses
[from the current 'TNF' deal] and (while reducing ad sales) turn
them into positive net income," said the note. "Said differently,
for the losses to be equivalent to the new TNF package in 2016,
the cost against those revenues would have to be ~$230 million or
roughly $9-10 million per hour."

Even building a programming block around the football lineup and
being able to move more programming to the second half of the
year had little to no impact on increasing profitability for CBS,
according to the note.

Swinburne also broke down the impact on the bottom line for every
possible media partner and found that the "TNF" package
would lose every firm money.

Of course, the NFL still produces some of the biggest ratings of
any televised event and is a coveted property among
broadcasters. But, at least according to Morgan Stanley's
analysis, CBS and NBC will probably lose money on this
deal.