Can a Viking Conquer Dickerson?

Adrian Peterson piled up yardage in big chunks last time he faced Green Bay, including an 82-yard touchdown run.

When Adrian Peterson lines up against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday with an outside chance at breaking the all-time NFL record for single-season rushing yards, he can draw on a former Packer’s prolific season finale from 2003 for inspiration.

Peterson needs 208 yards to break Eric Dickerson’s 28-year-old record for 2,105 rushing yards in a single season. Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings will face the Packers on Sunday, four weeks after Peterson ran for 210 yards against Green Bay and two weeks after he racked up 212 yards against Chicago St. Louis. But only one man in a similar position to Peterson’s — at least 1,600 rushing yards through 15 games in a 16-game season — did what he’ll need to do Sunday to break the record. Of the 23 prior players in that position, Green Bay’s Ahman Green is the only one to have at least 208 yards rushing in Game 16. He got 218 yards from 20 attempts for the Packers in 2003, in a 31-3 defeat of Denver that included a 98-yard touchdown run by Green. The victory helped seal an unlikely playoff berth for the Packers. Green ran for 222 more yards combined in two playoff games for Green Bay.

Many other players had disappointing finishes after strong starts in their first 15 games. Tony Dorsett gained just 39 yards on 20 carries after starting the 1981 season with 1,607 yards in his first 15 games for Dallas. Another Cowboys back, Emmitt Smith, got just 68 yards on 24 attempts after gaining 1,705 yards in the first 15 games of the 1995 season. And three years ago, Chris Johnson cleared 2,000 yards in the season finale but it took lots of attempts: He needed 36 carries for his 134 yards, for just 3.7 yards per attempt. The typical season finale for players in this category featured 7% fewer attempts than their season average and 13% fewer yards — which, if it applies to Peterson, would mean he’ll finish with 2,002 yards. (He’s already cooled off from a fantastic eight-game run, gaining just 86 yards on 25 carries last week after averaging 164 yards in the prior eight weeks.)

Runners within sight of the all-time record do tend to get lots of chances to break it. In the 14 prior rushing seasons to top 1,850 yards, the 13 rushers — Barry Sanders did it twice — typically got 15% more carries in the season finale than they’d averaged until that point in the season. And they gained 26% more yards in that game than they’d averaged. That bump would leave Peterson with 2,057 yards. Some did even better: In addition to Green, three of the other 14 atop the all-time list reached 200 yards in their last games.

Wherever Peterson finishes, he’ll likely see a drop-off the next season. Such historic performances simply aren’t sustainable. Every one of the 14 seasons atop the all-time list was followed by a decrease in yardage, of at least 11% and more typically, 44%. Most extremely, Terrell Davis played in just 16 more games in his career after carrying 392 times for 2,008 yards in 1998. But 12 of the other 13 seasons were followed by another 1,000-yard season, and an average total of 1,232 yards, even counting Davis’s drop-off. Next season, Peterson is unlikely to challenge the all-time mark — whether its his or Dickerson’s — but he’ll probably still be among the NFL’s elite runners.

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