Cameron Bolsters Bid to Oust Brown in Debate Poll Win

Conservative Party leader David Cameron, Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and Prime Minister Gordon Brown take part in the third and final leaders' debate, at the University of Birmingham, yesterday. Photographers: Jeff Overs/BBC-WPA Pool/Getty Images

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Conservative leader David Cameron
won the final debate of the U.K. election campaign, three
instant-reaction polls showed, gaining momentum in his bid to
oust Prime Minister Gordon Brown in the May 6 vote.

Cameron did best among the undecided last night in the
candidates’ last chance to rally their bases and persuade
wavering voters, according to a ComRes Ltd. survey. Before the
debate, Brown was running third in a three-way race behind
Cameron and Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg, polls showed.

“Labour would like this campaign to be over now,” said
Steven Fielding, director of the Centre for British Politics at
Nottingham University. “Their fight really is just to avoid
humiliation. After last night, Brown has no platform left to
campaign on.”

Forecasts point to a so-called hung Parliament, with the
Conservatives having the most seats, though short of a majority.
That prospect may unsettle investors concerned that a divided
government would be too weak to fix Britain’s record budget
deficit.

The pound weakened 0.2 percent to $1.5292 as of 4:25 p.m.
in London. Sterling has fallen about 5 percent against the
dollar so far this year as the opinion polls pointed
increasingly to a hung Parliament as the most likely outcome.

Cameron’s central message in the 90-minute event in
Birmingham, central England, was that 13 years of Labour rule
had left Britain struggling to recover from its longest
recession and the highest unemployment in 16 years.

‘Clean Break’

“If you vote Labour, you’re going to get more of the
same,” Cameron said. “If you vote Conservative on Thursday,
you can have a new fresh government, making a clean break.”

Brown countered by describing himself as the most able
steward of a recovering economy.

“They are not ready for government because they have not
thought through their policies,” Brown said of his rivals. “We
are desperate to get this country through the recession and into
the recovery.”

A YouGov Plc poll for The Sun newspaper released before the
debate showed Conservative support unchanged from the previous
day at 34 percent, while the Liberal Democrats fell 3 points to
28 percent and Labour was unchanged at 27 percent. YouGov
questioned 1,623 voters April 28 and yesterday.

That would give the Conservatives 268 lawmakers, 58 short
of a majority in the 650-seat House of Commons, Labour 261 and
Clegg’s party 90, according to the seat calculator on the U.K.
Polling Report website.

‘Two-Horse Race’

Clegg, campaigning today in Leicester, central England,
said the election was boiling down to a “two-horse race”
between his party and the Conservatives.

Business Secretary Peter Mandelson told reporters the race
was “still wide open” as he joined the prime minister for a
poster launch in Birmingham. “I would say that a third or
quarter of the electorate have yet to finally make up their
minds,” he said.

Brown’s predecessor, Tony Blair, a three-time election
winner, lent Labour his support today, visiting the Harrow West
electoral district in northwest London. He said he didn’t think
the party will come in third. “Labour’s got every chance of
succeeding,” he told reporters.

In the 2005 election, Labour had an 18-point lead over the
Conservatives in the district. If they were to lose it, it would
suggest they were on course to lose close to half their 345
seats.

Instant Polls

In the final encounter last night, 41 percent of 1,151
viewers questioned immediately after the debate said Cameron
performed best, according to a YouGov poll. Clegg was called the
winner by 32 percent and 25 percent favored Brown.

Of the 2,372 voters questioned for the ComRes instant poll,
35 percent thought Cameron won and 33 percent saw Clegg as the
winner, with 26 percent for Brown. Cameron took 43 percent of
undecided voters compared to 34 percent for Brown and 23 percent
for Clegg.

Another poll by ICM Ltd. for the Guardian had Cameron at 35
percent, Brown at 29 percent and Clegg at 27 percent.

“Cameron was very strong at looking assured and looking
like he knew what he was doing,” said Justin Fisher, professor
of politics at London’s Brunel University.

During the debate, Brown and Cameron clashed over the
timing of cuts in government spending.

‘In Jeopardy’

“I do fear an emergency Tory budget in a few weeks time
putting the very work that we’ve done to secure the recovery in
jeopardy,” Brown said, referring to the Conservatives’ pledge
to announce revised spending plans within 50 days of winning
power.

Labour “confuse the economy with the government,” Cameron
said. “What we’re saying is save government waste to put money
back in people’s pockets. Gordon’s argument in a way is ‘Let me
go on wasting your money so I can put your taxes up next
year.’”

“Cameron knew Brown would go on his record as an
experienced leader in the economic crisis so he sought to lay
the blame for the economic malaise at Labour’s door,” said
Andrew Russell, who teaches politics at the University of
Manchester.

The deficit, which at more than 11 percent of gross
domestic product is the largest in the Group of Seven, has been
a dominant theme of the campaign.

The British economy grew in the first quarter at 0.2
percent, half the pace of the previous three months, and
unemployment is at a 16-year high. Gross domestic product
contracted for six straight quarters through September 2009.