Divining Iran's intentions

November 24, 2004

On Monday, the flimsy deal that Britain, France and Germany struck with Iran to blunt its nuclear ambitions took effect. So how did Iran spend its last few days before it was to suspend all uranium enrichment activities?

On Friday came reports that Iran was busily exploiting the interim period to produce significant quantities of a uranium gas that, when fed into centrifuges, can make fissile material for nuclear bombs. On Monday, International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei confirmed that Iran had produced the gas.

Last week, Secretary of State Colin Powell said that intelligence suggested Tehran has been "working hard" to develop a missile to deliver a nuclear warhead. "I have seen some information that would suggest that they have been actively working on delivery systems to deliver" a warhead, Powell told reporters. That assertion drew criticism from some officials who said that it was uncorroborated information.

Then there were assertions by an Iranian dissident group that Iran had a secret enrichment site and had acquired blueprints for an atomic bomb from the infamous black market network run by Pakistani nuclear outlaw A.Q. Khan, whose clients included North Korea and Libya.

Does that sound like a nation likely to shelve its nuclear ambitions for long?

It sounds like a country that wants to see how much it can extract from Europe while hoping to find ways to continue to develop its bombmaking capacity, probably in secret. The best estimates say it will be early 2007 before Iran could build a nuclear bomb. Once Iran, a major sponsor of terror, has a single bomb, the world becomes a far more dangerous place.

The European deal--a temporary suspension of enrichment while more bargaining commences--has already deflected the U.S.-led impetus to confront Iran at the IAEA's meeting this week. That's the meeting where officials will discuss the agency's most recent report on Iran. The report lauds the Iranians for some cooperation but also notes that the agency is "not yet in a position to conclude that there are no undeclared nuclear materials or activities in Iran."

A diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear ambitions is preferable to a forced solution. If this freeze is to be even marginally effective, however, the Europeans have to set a deadline for a comprehensive deal and the IAEA must get unfettered access to investigate Iran's nuclear capabilities. There are plenty of signs and omens about what Iran's up to. You don't need a crystal ball.