By Tridivesh Singh Maini

US and Pakistan Mending Bilateral Ties

Both the US and Pakistan seem to be in damage control mode, and they
have been making efforts to send a clear message — that while they have
significant differences on important strategic issues, neither side can allow
the relationship to drift any further.

Before Pakistan Foreign Secretary Tehmina Janjua met with officials
in the Trump Administration during her visit to Washington on March 7-8, 2018, some
significant remarks were made by senior US officials in the context of
bilateral ties between Pakistan and US, as well as the role of Pakistan in
regional stability (specifically in the context of Afghanistan).

On March 5, the US Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Alice
Well stated: “We’re certainly not
walking away from Pakistan. There will be very intensive dialogue through both
our military and our civilian channels to discuss how we can work together … Pakistan
has an important role to play in helping to stabilise Afghanistan.”

There were also some
words of appreciation for Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts. While
addressing the US Senate Arms Committee, the Director of Defense Intelligence
Agency (DIA) Lt Gen Robert
P Ashley said: “These efforts of
Islamabad have had some success in reducing violence from militant, sectarian,
terrorist, and separatist groups, but Pakistan will look to the United States
and the Afghan government for support against anti-Pakistan fighters in
Afghanistan.”

These statements came
days after Lisa Curtis, the US National Security Council’s senior
director for South and Central Asia visited Pakistan and engaged with Pakistani officials
including Tehmina Janjua as well as Interior Minister Ahsan Iqbal.

The main aim of Curtis’
visit was to do stock taking of the bilateral relationship which has been going
downhill over the past few months. First, the US suspended military aid to
Pakistan, and then it had played a key role in getting Pakistan on the grey list
of the international financial watchdog Financial Action Task Force, whose primary job is to keep a close watch on
regulations pertaining to money laundering and terrorist financing. While
initially Saudi
Arabia and China were not
willing to support a motion which sought to put Pakistan on the grey list, US
pressure helped.

In January, the US
President tweeted: “The United States has
foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15
years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our
leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in
Afghanistan, with little help. No more!”

Four days later, over USD 1 billion
of military aid to Pakistan was suspended, including over USD 255 million
in foreign military funding, and USD 900 million
in Coalition Support Funds to Pakistan. US officials however stated that
this was a temporary measure, and if Pakistan took tangible steps against
terror groups, the US would reconsider its decision. Curtis during her visit urged Pakistan to take steps against terror
groups (including the Haqqani network), and flagged US concerns regarding the shortcomings
in Pakistan’s anti-terrorist
financing controls.

The US statements regarding Pakistan’s relevance in the context of
Afghanistan should be read in view of Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani’s
decision to get Taliban on board. Pakistan had welcomed this decision. Pakistan’s
National Security Advisor Nasser Janjua in his meeting with Afghan Ambassador to Pakistan Omar Zakhilwal stated
: “Peace in Afghanistan is essential for peace in Pakistan. Pakistan believes
in a vision of common and shared future with the people of Afghanistan; that is
why Pakistan has all along supported efforts for political reconciliation
under... peace initiatives.”

US engagement with Pakistan should be welcomed by New Delhi,
as it will ensure that Washington has leverage to push Pakistan to act against
the terrorist groups targeting India.

During Foreign Secretary Tehmina
Janjua’s visit, both sides reiterated the need for continuous engagement and the
importance of a sound bilateral relationship. During her visit, the Foreign
Secretary met with senior US officials including the US Deputy Secretary of
State John Sullivan at the State Department and Deputy National Security
Advisor Dr. Nadia Schadlow at the White House. She also had discussions with
South Asia experts at the US Institute of Peace. Tehmina
Janjua stated that both countries share a
very important relationship, which is not restricted to any one issue: “Our
bilateral relationship is not just about Afghanistan, we have a history of
cooperation in several fields, and we have asked the United States to restart
the structured strategic dialogue.”

She also spoke about the need for
deepening dialogue between Pakistan-US at all levels, and the importance of
regional stability especially peace in Afghanistan. The decision to appoint a
new Pakistani envoy to the US was also taken during the Foreign Secretary’s
trip. The Pakistan government appointed investment banking expert and special
assistant to the Prime Minister, Ali
Jahangir Siddiqui, as Pakistan’s
ambassador to the US. By appointing a non-career diplomat who is relatively
young and who has worked so closely with the PM, Pakistan would like to signal
that it wants to infuse fresh thinking and greater urgency so as to put the relationship
back on track.

Both Islamabad and
Washington will not slam the door on their relationship. First, the US would
not want to lose leverage over Islamabad given its important geopolitical
location. There are sections on both sides which do have a strong comfort level
and have developed strong ties over the years. During his visit to the US in
February 2018, Ahsan
Iqbal had cited the
geopolitical relevance of Pakistan, arguing that it was imperative for both to
work jointly in Afghanistan.

Second, Pakistan too
realizes that overdependence upon China will not help. It would like to keep a
working relationship with US. There is an increasing discomfort with China’s
increasing clout in the economic and political sphere, through the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor. This has
been expressed not just by the country’s business
community, but senior politicians as well. Interestingly, Pakistan’s ties with Russia which have improved are driven not just by anti-US sentiment, as has been argued, but also to give Pakistan options beyond China.

Ghani’s decision to
engage with the Taliban is also important. In such a situation, the US would
want Pakistan to cooperate and play a positive role in regional stability.
While the Pakistan army will not give in very easily, continuous pressure from
Washington along with Beijing (which also has economic interests in
Afghanistan) may help.

India will be watching
this closely. US engagement with Pakistan should be welcomed by New Delhi, as
it will ensure that Washington has leverage to push Pakistan to act against the
terrorist groups targeting India — Jamaat-ud-Dawah (JuD), LeT (Lashkar-e-Taiba)
and Jaish-e-Mohammed. Currently, Pakistan has been in denial with regard to the
activities of these groups and has not taken any concrete steps against them.
JuD Chief, and mastermind of the Mumbai terror attacks, Hafiz Saeed will in
fact be putting up candidates in the 2018 general election under the banner of
the Milli
Muslim League (MML) Party.
Saeed was put under house
arrest in January 2017 due to external
pressure (the US had put a bounty of USD 10 million on Saeed), but was released
in November 2017. The Pakistan army may provide support to MML in the general
election to weaken the PML-N.

In conclusion, Washington’s
engagement with Pakistan is important, and will be watched closely. It remains
to be seen whether President Trump keeps sustained pressure on Pakistan to act
against terrorist groups, and whether Washington can effectively use both the
carrot and the stick. If Washington can get Pakistan (specifically its army) to
alter its approach towards its neighbors, the biggest beneficiary will be South
Asia.