Monday, November 2, 2009

Marriage still close in Maine

Maine voters narrowly favor Question 1, which would reverse the state's law legalizing same sex marriage.

At 51-47 it's within the margin of error but there has been slight movement in support of the question since a PPP poll two weeks ago showed it knotted up at 48.

The measure's fate could be determined by the age composition of the electorate on Tuesday. Senior citizens support it by a 59-40 margin while voters under 30 oppose it 51-48. Last year exit polls showed more voters under 30 turning out for the Presidential election than ones over 65 but we expect seniors to turn out at a much higher rate than younger voters this year, as is often the case in off year elections. If the electorate ends up being younger than we anticipate the fight could be even closer.

Independents support the measure 52-46. There are slightly more Democrats (27%) in favor of it than there are Republicans (22%) opposed to it. Men support it by a 56-42 margin, women are opposed 52-46. It's just going to come down to which side does the better job of getting its people out.

On Question 4, which is the Taxpayers Bill of Rights (TABOR 2), the outcome is more clear. 57% of voters are opposed to it with just 39% in favor. 76% of Democrats, 53% of independents, and even 39% of Republicans say they will vote against it and it's safe to say it has no chance with that level of opposition from the GOP.

"Senior citizens support it by a 59-40 margin while voters under 30 oppose it 51-48."

Support means "want to repeal a same-sex marriage law". A Yes vote is a no vote for same-sex marriage and a No vote is a vote in support of same-sex marriage.

I do not know what the exact wording of this survey question was, but previous polls have been ambiguous (in my opinion) with a "yes" response to the survey question indicating support for gay marriage -- the opposite of what a "yes" vote will mean on election day.

Christie will end COAH . If you don't know what COAH is well it's a mandate requiring all county's to build low income housing. It's forcing towns to build on open space. It's a complete disaster and if you Vote for Christie he﻿ will end it. VOTE CHRISTIE and save you're town