Armstrong Has Big Lead Over Schneider in North Dakota House Race, Candidates About Even on in-State Contributions

U.S. House candidates Democrat Mac Schneider, left, and Republican Kelly Armstrong debate on Saturday, May 5, 2018, during the North Dakota Newspaper Association's annual convention at the Radisson Hotel in Bismarck.David Samson / The Forum

Republican state Senator Kelly Armstrong has a strong fundraising lead over former state Senator Mac Schneider in the first report each candidate has filed in North Dakota’s U.S. House race.

Both candidates have been active for about the same amount of time.

Armstrong officially announced his campaign on February 22nd. Schneider announced his on March 6.

That’s going to drive up the cost of everything the campaigns need, from advertising to staff.

Schneider needs to raise big money to look like a convincing opponent to Armstrong. If he can’t, it’s hard to see a path to victory for him. You could argue that Schneider could ride in on Heitkamp’s coat tails, but North Dakotans are ballot splitters. Voting for one candidate does not mean they’ll vote for another, as evidenced by Heitkamp and Cramer both winning on the 2012 ballot.

Geographically, the candidates are about even in terms of where the money is coming from: