Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Bag 'O Links: Alberta Edition

1. We've known Rob Anders has been asleep on the job for years...though this may be the first literal instance:

Still, I'm sure most who have heard John Duncan speak will have some sympathy for Anders.

2. Alberta Liberal MLA Bridgit Pastoor is heading back to the Tories, as part of the "future considerations" in this spring's Raj Sherman deal.

3. But who can blame Pastoor for jumping ship when the Tories are at 51%, according to a new Environics poll? With the opposition parties all under 20%, the Tories appear poised for a crushing victory on...umm...

4. ...sometime this spring. Yes, Redford has kind of delivered on her "fixed election date" promise, scheduling elections for sometime between March 1st and May 31st this year. Officially, this flexibility has nothing to do with poll numbers, and everything to do with the ability to adapt to unforeseen events, such as a natural disaster or one of Alberta's hockey teams going on an extended playoff run.

I wonder if Pastoor's decision has something to do with a shift in Lethbridge's vote pattern. Some of the polling seems to imply that the provincial numbers are shifting the same way that the federal numbers did, with the Liberal vote collapsing and the NDP surging. After the last federal election, the two Lethbridge seats have to be major NDP targets.

The NDP were under 10% in both Lethbridge seats last election, so I have a hard time seeing them as serious players there.

That said, if you had a shift from the Liberals to the NDP, that would definitely make life easier for the PCs there (even if they bleed a bit to the WRA).

Pastoor is 71, so I can't imagine she's exceedingly concerned about her political future (I wouldn't be shocked if she decides not to run again). She's a former PC so my guess is she genuinely likes Redford and wanted to support her.

The 2008 results should definitely give the NDP pause but I cannot see the party avoiding Lethbridge. An attempt to replicate the rise of their federal counterparts has to be part of the NDPs election strategy.

It was as recent as the 2004 Federal Election when the Liberals pulled more than 20% and the NDP less than 10% (even that was a big improvement for them). Flash to 2011 and suddenly the NDP are pulling almost 30%. This is in a riding that essentially combines the two provincial Lethbridge ridings with Cardston-Taber-Warner, arguably the most conservative riding in Alberta.

If the NDP wants to gain any seats in the next election, their only realistic targets start with a few seats in Edmonton and essentially end with Lethbridge.

Robin - to a certain extent, you're probably right that the NDP should target Lethbridge...after all, they need to expand their base outside of Edmonton, and don't really appear to be in the game in Calgary.

I think they had a strong showing in Medicine Hat federally, so cities like that or Lethbridge make a certain amount of sense to target in the long run.

I don't think they have any chance of winning it next election, but yeah, it's a good place to try out a 2-election strategy.

The NDP result in Medicine Hat, where they pulled 13%, wasn't really anything special. They did better in Red Deer, Fort McMurray-Athabasca, Peace River, and Yellowhead. Lethbridge, as a college town, really isn't comparable to Alberta's other second tier cities.

I'm going to have to disagree with you on that last point. I don't think the NDP will win either of the Lethbridge seats but they certainly have a chance. Those ridings are two of the closest things to battlegrounds that Alberta has and for all we know this election could still end up with some excitement if the Wildrose can rebound and take a chunk of the PC vote.

I'm certainly not surprised by Bridget Pastoor's floor-crossing. She was a Tory during the Lougheed and Getty years and was former Lethbridge MLA Dick Johnston's Constituency Assistant before leaving the PCs. Lethbridge East will be an interesting contest in the next election (assuming that Ms. Pastoor can win the PC nomination). I think the initial Liberal victory in 1993 can be chalked up the then-popular brand, but since I think the Liberals have held the seat on the backs of the popularity of their local MLA - Ken Nicol and Ms. Pastoor. It will be interesting to see if the Libs can win it back in the next election.

As for the NDP in Lethbridge, the federal NDP did really well in Lethbridge in the last federal election (within City limits, of course). The federal vote within the provincial Lethbridge-West constituency for example was around 39%. Pretty good starting point if you ask me.