Tuesday, April 25, 2017

You might remember that throughout much of the long campaign leading up to the 2014 independence referendum, TNS was one of the group of No-friendly pollsters, before sensationally swinging in the opposite direction just before polling day. That dramatic reversal survived into the post-referendum period, with a TNS poll in the autumn of 2015 putting Yes in the outright lead. Now, incomprehensibly, and in total contradiction of the vast bulk of polling evidence from other firms, TNS has returned to its old ways by showing a very large No lead.

This is by some distance the worst poll for Yes from any firm since September 2014. The previous low was Yes 43%, No 57% from YouGov.

The ever-reliable buffoons who insist that "only the last poll we set eyes upon matters" will inevitably lose all sense of perspective over this, but those of us who are a little more level-headed will recognise an indisputable fact here - that this poll can't possibly negate the much more favourable polls we've seen for Yes over the last few days, for the simple reason that it was conducted earlier. TNS polls are always way out of date by the time that we see them, and this one is no exception - fieldwork started in late March and concluded two weeks ago, which dates it well before the Panelbase and Survation polls. The majority of interviews also took place before BMG found a virtual 50/50 tie. So the verdict from those three online pollsters is clear enough - they are more up-to-date, and they do not corroborate the findings of TNS.

That's not to say that if a more recent TNS poll had been conducted, it would necessarily have produced a healthier result for Yes. TNS traditionally use a distinctive face-to-face data collection method, and that could largely explain why they've suddenly bolted off in a different direction from other firms (assuming this isn't an outright rogue poll, which always has to be considered a possibility when the numbers are this unexpected). And yet it seems highly unlikely that the new No-friendly trend is going to be seen across all non-online polls, because as recently as early March, a telephone poll from Ipsos-Mori put Yes in a slight outright lead - a better result, ironically, than has been seen in any online poll so far this year. It's going to take time to make sense of what's happening, because at the moment there's just no comprehensible pattern in any of this. The BMG, Survation and Ipsos-Mori numbers are simply not reconcilable with TNS - the standard 3% margin of error can't explain such a big divergence.

You would have to say that the balance of probability is that Yes are trailing at the moment, but whether they are trailing by 20% as TNS say, or by 2% as BMG say, or whether the truth is somewhere in between those extremes, is anyone's guess. We mustn't forget just how absurdly far adrift Leave were in most telephone polls before pulling off victory in the EU referendum last June - so it's perfectly possible that online polls are more accurate these days.

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SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 45.7% (-1.1)No 54.3% (+1.1)

(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each firm that has reported at least once within the last three months. The firms included in the current sample are Panelbase, BMG, Ipsos-Mori, YouGov, TNS and Survation.)

Without being the tiniest bit complacent I'm not that worried by the seeming stubbornness of the pro Indy figure to rise substantially up from indyref 1 - yet.

It's all in that 'yet': the divisions between unionism = right wing repressive and on the other hand independence = social democratic progressive are just beginning to come out clearly.

As they become clearer and as we campaign more, I feel sure there'll be a dramatic shift in the polls.

Far from being predictors - in many ways pollsters(and the media who cheerlead short term advantage for unionism) are actually stuck in the past. Big changes are stirring and are likely to surprise once really underway. But those who rely on the polls will be the last to know and the least able to adapt.

Interestingly enough, if you take the most and least yes friendly polls of late and average out the no lead, you get a 10% no lead - same as on referendum day, which is probably where we are as the SNP and mini SNPs have done nothing - absolutely nothing - to convince the Scottish population to their cause other than moan and abuse their power.

... as you say, James "too early to call" .... your Poll of Polls certainly points to the fact that the "45%" YES vote is holding firm. It would appear once YES, stay YES .... now, how do we convert just 10% of the NO vote ? ... crack that one and we've got the prize !! .....great analysis . enjoyable reading

You can't, not without losing some of your existing support. No voters are driven by different things. They want to see a plan, they want to see realism, they want to see the end of the villification of the centre-right. Yet if you give them any of these things you lose a chunk of the people you have already. So you can never reach the magic 50%+1 required.

Given you post repeatedly under different names and impersonate other commenters, I don't think you get to point fingers. But self-awareness does not seem to be one of your strengths.

Seriously. Go talk to someone. Get hold of a friend or a relative. Sit them down and show them the stuff you are posting. The insane post sprees. The swearing. The rage. You make up about 40% of all the posts on this website, probably more, although most of them are just the same stuff, posted endlessly.

You keep copies of posts saved on your computer so you can repost them over and over again. Does that sound like it's what a healthy person does to you? Really?

Go talk to someone. I have to assume you have people who care about you in real life, and this cannot be good for your health, physical, mental or otherwise.

I've said this before. GWC is just an idiot winding people up for his own amusement. Why he bothers, I don't know, but some people get off on being a dick on the internet. You are something more serious, and I doubt anyone here wants to see you hurt either yourself or someone else.

Who are the idiots then? Not me I sussed the Tartan Tories out late sixties. Con merchants and anti English fascists. Not one of you Nat si idiots will have the courage to condemn the Tartan Tory Thatcherite policies. All of you dain whit ye are tellt by the politburo. Ye are merr right wing than the Blairites....My fair city of Glesga is being butchered with Nat si cuts. Beggars on every corner and the toffs are rakin in ra dosh courtesy of Nat si policies.Get it right up ye scumbags.

Mick obviously has serious issues, and you are winding him up and making him worse for your own sick amusement. You're no better than someone who makes fun of disabled kids. Mick's rants are getting worse, and his insane post sprees are mainly in response to you constantly poking at him on this site.

If he does end up seriously hurting either himself or someone around him because of your goading, I hope James helps the authorities find you and deal with you in the manner you deserve.

You don't give a flying crap about Nat-sis or politics or anything else. You're just pissing about on someone's website because you think it's funny.

Or it would just be far, far easier for you to stop your pitiful petulant WHINING.

Since nobody other than spineless cowards and far-right BritNats seem to have a problem with my posts. Mmmkay?

Your faux concern for my health hardly convinces when the sum total of your post is absolutely nothing whatsoever of substance.

Let me speak again more plainly since you seem to be the kind of pompous right-wing twat immune to reason and oblivious to how they are coming across.

I don't give a flying fuck what you think.

Got it petal?

I can't actually make it any more explicit, short of producing an actual picture of a tory dipshit like yourself with your head lodged firmly up his arse, shouting cluelessly up that arse and mistaking your own wet farts for rumbles of affirmation.

You simply don't have the intellectual heft to come up with anything better than pitiful pointless whining if we're being honest. You're just a fuckwit and you'll always be a fuckwit. That's how you cut through the dross since even your insults are flaccid, weak and unoriginal.

As dimwitted and cowardly as you've already proven yourself to be you save the 'best' for last with a craven half-arsed apologia for one of the most odious pieces of shit ever to grace James Blog.

You don't get to wind-up anyone on here for your own amusement by using racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs. Whether posted Anonymously or as GWC2 makes no difference to me.

You're still a coward and I'll still call out racist, homophobic, bigotry every single time.

If you don't like it then by all means fuck the fuck off since I have been posting on here far longer than a chickenshit like yourself.

Despite your pompous and ignorant assumptions to the contrary there is absolutely nobody jumping in to save your blushes here.

Nor is there any sign whatsoever of you or GWC2 being any more popular than a fart in a spacesuit on this scottish independence polling blog.

You are self-evidently a waste of time desperately trying (and failing) to convince others that they are when they actually contribute to this blog and you contribute nothing at all.

I simply don't care if a cowardly far-right turd like you hurts yourself or is indeed projecting you own manifest neuroses on others.

Imagine being so far gone and so breathtakingly ignorant that you think providing evidence, keeping news articles and linking proof of what someone says is "unhealthy".

Then imagine claiming that posting on a blog and contributing to it regularly (on that actual blog mind) is also 'unhealthy'.

The only thing left is to whine about is the length of posts. Which is almost certainly coming if the cowardly tory continues on their futile quest to convince themselves they aren't a complete fucking waste of everyone's time on this blog.

I expect the first two posts must have made the far-right fool furious and shaking with rage.

What with them expressing actual humanity and evoking human empathy in those capable of experiencing it. Unlike the Anonymous tory twit / GWC2.

We're just trying to help you Mick. You desperately need to come out the closet, as a nutcase. Only then can you secure the medical assistance you so desperately need i.e. padded cell and electric shock therapy. Now and again James can pop in to visit you with some good polling news to cheer you up. Could take a while though! :0)

The Jock Nat sis said they would top up any cuts and eradicate foodbanks. You need money to do this but the Nat sis will not raise the money. ..........Meanwhile the Jock rich are raking in the dosh........ Cannae blame the English any merr fash bhoys..... Put yer hauns in yer pockets and pay up.

Imagine being SO abjectly terrified of your country running its own affairs that you'd vote for this.

Tens Of Thousands Of British Schoolchildren Will Go Hungry This Summer

A report from the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Hunger says up to 3 million children could be at risk of going hungry this summer. Teachers told BuzzFeed News they had stepped in to feed hungry children.

Wonder what the Unionist trolls think will happen to people's opinions when the full impact of Brexit and reverting to World Trade Organisation tariff hits?

Scotland obviously has a large swathe of rural industry presently voting No, some of them will never change. But they and the poor will be hardest hit, as suddenly their trade is massively more expensive and their margins squeezed even more.

Not to mention the impact inflation will have on consumers spending habits. I.e. people will have less money to spend on food and drink. There is already a credit bubble with the Bank of England now being forced to act to prevent another asset bubble burst.

As the economy get's worse, do you lot really think people will still be turned off by independence?

An economy that was working 'OK' will now be in the doldrums and all because of a vote that was outwith Scotland's hands and all because of decisions that was outwith Scotland's hands.

Do you realise people will say 'Well what have we got to lose with independence?' The BBC said we would be worse off with an Indy Scotland yet they never even mentioned we would be worse off in an Brexit UK....

The time is slowly ticking, the tories might win a few seats off the SNP, but the SNP will still be the largest party, probably 3rd biggest in the UK.

The 2nd Indy ref is sitting in the bag, primed and ready for the moment when the recession hits and people start looking for options.

They aren't at the moment, credit cards and general apathy hold the day, but anger will build and resentment of being lied to will overcome any apathy.

Last I heard Nicola speak about it she said they would seek full membership of it. She has obviously been assured of a couple of veto's etc, obviously assuming but I can't see her saying as such without having the ammo to fire back at unionists who seek to belittle Scotland's membership.

It's funny really, this snap election will bring to the fore the complete choice that you speak of between an internationalist social democratic outlook v a neoliberal, tax haven that the UK want's to become

I can assure you we are two separate people. But what I'm.wondering is this - are Mick and GWC the same person? I think Mick's invented a persona to keep him busy. Maybe he doesn't even realise it himself. Scary shit!

It is just the simple rolling average that most simple people can understand notwithstanding errors in tactical answers to telephone polling. Some phoned are not the full shilling and are traditionally Unionist pensioners who are not for this world and may die before the next referendum. The more of these old Unionists that die will be a bonus for our greater cause.