Wednesday, August 04, 2010

Ok,so Mumbai is getting the required "breather". With 22 mms of rain in Mumbai on Tuesday (vagaries estimated 20 mms), and just less than 10 mms on Wednesday, I anticipate the situation to remain "status Quo" till Saturday.

I had kept the forecast "on hold" in my last blog till Thursday, now why extend till Saturday?

A slight shift in the situation. The low has formed in the bay, and NRL has numbered it 90B, at 19.4N and 86.1E.But, many models doubt its intensification capacity. Infact, only IMD confirms its status growing to "well marked low". Ok, might just deepen to 996 mb from current 1000mb.

But, even if it does go beyond 996 mb, it may take a day or two longer than its normal estimated speed rate.. Might just linger off the coast till Saturday.

Like the previous instance, Kerala and North Karnataka coasts will get winds, bringing in rains till Friday/Saturday, a result of the rush towards the low prior to its inland movement.

Subdued rains this week all over central and northern India. Bihar, Jharkhand and Southern W.Bengal may see an increase in rainfall Friday/Saturday, as the low intensifies.

Thursday thru Saturday for Mumbai: Showers of passing nature, not persistent, with sunny intervals. Day temperature, hitherto around 28c, will creep up to 30/31c. Around 10-15 mms/day.No hindrances !

With 2 months to go, touching the 2500 mms mark (100") should not be difficult for Mumbai Colaba.Like mentioned earlier, the all time record for Colaba stands at

The CPC has continued to put the seawaters surrounding the Philippines for possible tropical cyclogenesis (cyclone formation).

The warm SSTs would combine with areas of weak vertical wind shear to boost the prospects for cyclone formation, it said.

In the latest available forecast, the CPC brought a larger area to both sides of North Pacific – South China Sea to southern Japan – under cyclone watch until August 16.

But a warm pool developing lately over West Equatorial Indian Ocean (Southwest of Sri Lanka) could act as a drag on the cyclogenesis in the West Pacific, forecasts indicated.

Back home, coastal waters along Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh is showing a warming trend, but the warming anomaly has not yet reached Head Bay of Bengal.

FAMILIAR PATTERN

This is why the activity is getting confined to Northwest or adjoining West-central Bay of Bengal where low-pressure areas have sprung up in recent times. The ‘low's instead wheel west-northwest into Central India and further into Gujarat or Northwest India in a pattern that has become all too familiar during the season.

East and Northeast India is left high and dry in this manner, and has showed deficit during the season logging a practically unchanged 21 per cent as on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the next ‘low' in the series to show up over Northwest and adjoining West-central Bay in the next two days. Once again, it would cut a path to west-northwest to roll into Central India before heading into the Gujarat/Rajasthan region.

An upper air cyclonic circulation from the previous ‘low' lay parked over Southeast Rajasthan and adjoining areas on Tuesday. The rain-driving offshore trough ran down from South Gujarat to the Karnataka coast.

A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Konkan, Goa, North Andhra Pradesh and Coastal Karnataka.

Outlook until Friday spoke about the possibility of widespread rain or thundershowers over West Himalayas, Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka.

Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Gujarat, Rajasthan and Interior Karnataka during the next 24 hours and decrease thereafter. But the rains may continue over Rajasthan.