Pages

Tuesday, 19 October 2010

CSR D-Day

On Wednesday, I will be posting as much analysis and info as I can on this thread. I'll link to any good articles and comment throughout the day. I hope you all join me on the comments section to share your first impressions and add any bits I miss.

I'll make a little prediction first though.

The drip, drip, drip of bad news has prepared the public well for the CSR. It has been unremitting since May. I'll have a little bet that on Wednesday, each horrific slash to the welfare system will be accompanied by some kind of "sweetener". On first impressions, Gideon will make you think "Oh, actually, that wasn't so bad".

If I were George though, I'd have some pretty decent plans for growth in the CSR and I'd hope to pull a few surprise rabbits out of my hat that everyone would love. I'd be hoping that after the months of bad news, any kind of "good stuff" would make the headlines over the cuts we already know about.

I'd hazard a guess that it will only be when independent think tanks start to unravel the figures and give their opinion, that we'll realise just how mean George has attempted to be.

54 comments:

Sorry, comments thread wasn't working, so I had to repost. Here are the two comments that had already been posted:

Blackburne said :

Obviously I won't be able to post during the day, because some of us work. I agree that it's quite possible that the cuts won't be as bad as the leaks imply. Not all bad news so far, taking child benefit off higher-rate taxpayers won't bother most people.I hope he clamps down on anyone cheating the system, and brings in some sort of qualification (10 years' contributions?) before being able to claim anything. :)Blackburne

Eoin said :

I still can’t get my photo thing sorted sue :)

ps... do you have a ball park figure in terms of % as to how big you think cuts will be?

Eoin - I honestly haven't a clue any more. It looks like some departments will be practically wiped out with cuts of 60-80%, such as university/HE funding and social housing. I do think GO will have some good news he's been holding back. Do you still think he'll cut less than he said

Above are the departments that we know quite a bit regarding the detail of their proposed cuts. These departments cost £424bn annually. If leaked details regarding Education etc.. are to be believed as well as cuts to post 16yr old’s benefits etc.. then the total in omentary terms of savings from these departments is c. £21.4bn or in onetary terms 5%.

@Sue..........Quite right that primary and secondary, ( with reservations ) education will be largely left unscathed. But, IMO, we really need to examine the value of HE in its present form, of course in the sciences there has been progress, but this obsession with targets and dubious exam systems, ( multi choice...bloody ridiculous )To me it is an area that needs to justify every penny, or change radically.

@Mike...........www.biomedcentral.com/1472-6920/9/52.........Evidence of gender bias in true-false-abstain medical exams.Medical School University of Nottingham 2009.Men are far more successful in exams involving risk...........There are other examples, but I studied engineering in the 60s and questions required an answer with an explanation, we certainly weren't given options.

Ken: Mulitple choice was being used by Nuffield in the late 60s and 70s I think, from my memories of dim and distant past.Well constructed multple choice questions are a good test and not easy.Over used and in a simplistic form they are less challenging of course and have been criticised in the current Edexcel GCSE Science, rightly in my view as too easy.

One problem regarding exams, the exams boards are compteting with each other. Schools comapred by exam results. Schools therefore choose easiest exams. Exam board make more money.This is the problem with the market economy in education.

I think the idea that schools are set to escape cuts is a bit of a myth. Many schools have been cutting staff numbers for the last 6 months. There were lots of stories in the local paper about teachers retiring but there were almost no ads recruiting new teachers to replace them. Most schools have also stopped using supply teachers prefering instead to use cheaper unqualfied cover supervisors or dinner ladies to cover for absent staff.

Good multiple choice papers would have accounted for random guessing.I am no fan of 100% multiple choice papers, but they do serve a purpose in testing, in my subject at least. As with all methods, there will be good and bad design. It all depends on what you're trying to assess.

Multiple choice questions can work. If the pass marks are well above 25%, it eliminates the chance of random guessing getting you through.Probability theory folks.Multiple choice also eliminates the possibility of the examiners falling into the 'read-my-mind' method of testing. Fill the gap;My car's crap because it's too _____A student writes 'FRENCH'Is that answer right or wrong?I have a French car and believe me I've said that a lot.Much better would be;Choose the correct answer;My car's crap because it's too _____A)olden B)age C)old D)elderly

So, here are some early leaks. If there's actually anything left to announce by tomorrow, I'll be amazed.

-17,000 jobs will go in the armed forces-25,000 in the Ministry of Defence-BBC licence fee frozen for 6 years-Over 14,250 jobs lost at Ministry of Justice "front line is where the brunt of the cuts will be made”

-Social Housing budget to be cut by "More than 50%" The National Housing Federation said it had been told housing was likely to be one of the biggest losers in the Spending Review - with "doomsday" cuts anticipated which will see affordable housebuilding virtually grind to a halt.

The federation, which represents England's housing associations, warned 50% cuts would "effectively shut the door on an entire generation of families on lower incomes by withdrawing billions of pounds worth of funding for affordable housing schemes".

It also claimed more than 360,000 jobs would be lost in the construction industry every year if cuts on the scale being proposed were introduced."

I don't know quite what to make of the last part of that quote - 360,000 jobs lost in construction EVERY YEAR??? Where on earth did that figure come from?? If it's anywhere near true it's disastrous.

Sue.....He said something similar about Gordon's 10p tax rate cock-up, Humphries says that sort of thing, you expect that sort of insightfulness from a man earning a million quid a year plus a final salary pension scheme, paid for, of course, by us. :-)

Humphries was certainly no friend of Labour when they were in power. I do worry that he's right about this though, it's something I've felt since long before the election. Maggie would never had allowed the gaffs and poor planning, the missed details and anomalies that we've seen from the coalition so far. At a time of such great change and hardship, it would be reassuring to know that they'd thought things through

Sue.....Well they've had enough time to prepare the main stuff, detail is always timeconsuming and, of course, where the devil lies. I would counsel a degree of caution, but it's a tough call, too many conflicting interests and a fundamental difference in strategy (cut slow vs cut fast)don't make it any easier.

Home office down by 6% a year or 24%Reduction of legal aid bill, courts to close.

Banks - Bonuses offensive. Regulation overhauled, Bank of England now in charge. "Keep Britain competitive for financial services"All banks to implement code of practise on taxation.900 million to go to tackling fraud in tax evasion. Aim to collect 7 billion in fraud

Benefit cheat clampdown.Welfare - Pension age will go to 66 by 2020, 4 years earlier than plannedPublic Service pensions - Must be a rise in contributions, lower paid protected, highest earners pay more, wait until next spring for details.1.8 billion in savings a year by 2014/15MPs pensions to change too.

Welfare - Universal credit to replace all out of work benefits. Introduced over 2 parliaments, 2 Billion to fund it. DWP savings - Time limit jobseekers 1 yearCouncil tax reduction of 10%DLA reduced in care Pension credit linited for 4 yearsTax credits frozen for three yearsWorking Tax Credit now 24 hoursCap on benefits no-one will receive more than the average workerSavings of 7 billion a year (on top of the 11 billion already announced)Child element of CTC however increased by £30 in 2011/12 and then £50 in 2012/13No further changes to child benefit, but those families with a higher rate taxpayer will lose child benefit.Free eye test, bus passes, TV licences & winter fuel allowances untouched.Cold weather payments will be made permanent

NHS - commitment to ring fence NHS honoured. Spending will go up (remember however that this is on an ageing population and increased demand, not necessarily on funding what will be needed)

"Chief Constable of Greater Manchester Police Peter Fahy - who speaks on workforce issues for the Association of Chief Police Officers - tells BBC News the cuts to policing are broadly in line with expectations. He says the cuts will affect front-line policing and there is "no question" there will be fewer police officers after four years."

Carl Emmergson from the IFS on live now - the measures that are newly announced hit lower earners hardest, but using announcements made by Labour, overall spending plans hit the richer harder, he says.

Also many education support services to school age children ( I am one of them) are not funded byt the schools budget but from the local LEA.These are bound to be hit, thus damaging prospects of vulnerable in society.

While the Tories say they are ring fencing the NHS, it is effectively being cut as insufficient costs to keep up with health inflationary costs.

This is because of the bankers made a mess in a greedy, capitalist system and ordinary, hardworking are being asked to pay. It is at the very least immoral.

Pam, it's all very depressing. This was Osbornes last chance in the limelight, his last chance to pin it all on Labour.From today, he will be judged on outcomes and his plans are a mess. From now on the narrative is unremitting - job losses, homelessness, wards closing. I have no idea what the polls will do short term, but I know for sure where they'll be at in 6 months.

Sue: Have had to leave UKPR else I be permanenlty on the step. Am amazed at somepositive repsonses.In real term the NHS will be hit as will education.I teach sick children so am involved closely with both NHS and education, and we are not funded by school budget.

@Sue.........We will never agree on the reason behind all this, but I don't think that the end of the world is nigh. We have to get back to the problem, viewed from there the solution was always going to be tough....we have to be realistic, and also fair on the nation as a whole, unfortunately this nation is divided, your side, and my side, I'm optimistic about the future now, you aren't. I have just been visited by an American friend who said he wished that they had someone with the guts to do what Osborne has just done, that is, to tackle the problem rather than skirt round it.

I know, Eoin panics!! Don't fret.He was predicting the cuts announced wouldn't be nearly this big too. He's built Osborne up to be some kind of genius, but just like the budget, most of what he announced was smoke and mirrors. It'll all come crashing down soon enough and from now on, every single day, every job lost, every drop in growth will be down to him. Most of it now will be down to how the media report everything. It'll take a few weeks for it all to be digested, cogitated and spat back out, but spit it they will. My big fear was that he would actually stick to Labour spending plans and do the decent thing, but he hasn't (though of course it would have been better for the country if he had)The big elephant in the room is that Tories are FURIOUS over the defence budget, really furious. There will be and endless drip drip about useless aircraft carriers with no aircraft and harrowing stories of squaddies on the dole.

It's that age old question Ken - will what's good for business be good for the country?I think we'd both agree that to meet the OBR targets, GO needs at least a dollop of goodwill from business in return - they need to invest, take on staff and up manufacturing and exports. I'd be interested to know (genuine question) if your friend would be prepared to give up a hefty slice of his profits to ensure that we really were "all in it together"

Would he take on extra staff? Train them where the training budget had been slashed, invest in new plant machinery? Or would he just be glad his profits were now secure?

(I think perhaps an honest answer to that question is unlikely unless your friend is a saint ;) )

This from the Telegraph. A gloomy view of today's markets, not altogether fair. They are obviously not happy with Mr O

David Frost, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said: "Now that the Spending Review is complete, our message to Government is that it is now time for a clear strategy for growth – which in turn will give companies, and especially small and medium-sized enterprises, the confidence to invest."He said businesses and government had to work together to deliver a real year for growth in 2011. "This is the only way that the private sector will be able to take up the slack," he said.This was echoed by John Walker, chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses. He said: "The small business community continues to have a vital part to play in driving a credible recovery and taking on new members of staff to help tackle unemployment, so it is now vital the Government puts a small business programme for growth into action immediately."He said small firms were at tipping point and lacked the confidence to take on the 500,000 people that will be made redundant as a result of these cuts.

@Sue.........I'm sure that my friend would be only too happy to share a profit at the moment, he came over here to try to raise money for his business.....having failed in the US, so, if you've got access to $10 mil, sing out, I'm on the case as well. As an afterthought...Dragons Den ? :-)

Wikio

Gadget

Followers

About Me

I have a rare form of Crohn's Disease. I was diagnosed 21 years ago and have had many operations to remove strictures (narrowings in my bowel that grow like tumours) I suffer daily pain, often vomiting, malnourished and weak. I take mega-strong medications every day including chemo-style immuno-suppressants, opiates and anti-sickness injections. Sometimes I am fed into my central vein by tube, other times I can enjoy a nice meal out. I have children that I often can't look after and a husband who often looks after me.
Our lives are disrupted daily by the misery of a chronic condition.