A better future

"I hope that the findings will encourage improved education around the links between major sporting events and peaks in domestic violence and greater awareness of the risk."

Domestic violence rates rose by an average of 30 percent each time
England won or lost their games during the 2010 World Cup, but draws had
little impact on the statistics.

Those are the key findings of research carried out by statistician
Professor Allan Brimicombe and BBC News journalist Rebecca Cafe and
published in the October issue of Significance, the magazine of
The Royal Statistical Society and the American Statistical Association.

As a consequence of this and previous research, Professor Brimicombe
believes there is a strong case for schools to educate pupils of the
dangers of domestic violence, event organisers should promote
initiatives that tackle domestic violence and that police forces should
prepare themselves for peaks in domestic violence around major sporting
events.

“Domestic violence is widespread, accounting for 15 percent of all
violent crimes and 35 percent of murders in the UK,” explains Professor
Brimicombe, from the Centre for Geo-Information Studies at the
University of East London.

“It is a crime that is estimated to affect some 30 percent of women and
17 percent of men at some point in their lives.”

The researchers based their findings on statistics provided by 33 of the
39 police forces in England, which between them cover 77 percent of the
country’s population.

The data, for the period covering the 2010 World Cup and the same period
in 2009, was obtained under the Freedom of Information Act 2000, which
enables members of the public to request official information from
public bodies.

The figures showed that when England drew 1-1 against the USA, domestic
violence fell by 1.9 percent and when England drew 0-0 against Algeria
it rose by 0.1 percent.

However when England won its game against Slovenia 1-0, domestic
violence rose by 27.7 percent. And England’s exit from the World Cup,
after losing 4-1 to Germany, was accompanied by a 31.5 percent rise in
domestic violence.

The research aimed to test the validity of an analysis carried out by
the Home Office that showed that domestic violence had risen during the
2006 World Cup. “Major sporting events do not cause domestic violence,
as perpetrators are responsible for their actions,” said the analysis,
“but the levels of alcohol consumption linked to the highly charged
emotional nature of those events seems to increase the prevalence of
such incidents.”

Professor Brimicombe concludes that the Home Office findings were right
in some respects but fell short in their analysis in other respects.

Professor Brimicombe explains: “Our research shows that increased levels
of domestic violence are associated with national football matches, but
only if there is a definite win or lose result. The failing of the
earlier Home Office analysis was that it ignored the outcome of the
match, which as we have seen is crucial.

“The percentage differences that we found are so great that we believe
we have established a strong case for linking wins and losses, but not
draws, to increased domestic violence.

“I hope that the findings will encourage improved education around the
links between major sporting events and peaks in domestic violence and
greater awareness of the risk.

“And I would applaud initiatives like the recent beer mat campaign
highlighting the dangers of domestic violence, run by the London Borough
of Newham and Metropolitan Police during the 2012 Olympics.”