If you’re a liberal, you quadrennially reconcile yourself to the fact that the GOP is going to win the White House. Again. Republicans are just better than Democrats at scoring points with snark — think John Kerry windsurfing, or Mike Dukakis in that goddamn tank. They’re also adept at whipping up patriotic fear and fervor, whether it’s using 9/11 as a campaign prop or casting Barack Obama’s candidacy as an exercise in self-indulgence. And at crucial moments — like the 2000 Florida recount — the Republicans seem to simply will themselves to victory.

This time, though, there’s actually reason for optimism. Never mind the fact that this past week’s Republican National Convention demonstrated the GOP’s mastery of the darker political arts, or that Gallup shows John McCain with a post-convention lead over Obama, 49 percent to 44 percent. The RNC also featured McCain’s formal, foolhardy declaration of war on the press — the same press, by the way, that made him a political superstar. Now the press seems inclined to fire back. And if this dynamic continues over the next two months — and the election is as close as everyone expects it to be — it could be the factor that makes Obama president.

An opportunity lost
Absent McCain’s decision to demonize the press, the RNC would have been a home run. Take the cynically brilliant way that the Republicans spun Hurricane Gustav. By suspending the big speeches of September 1, the convention’s first day, the GOP transformed Gustav from a dangerous reminder of past Republican failures (Hurricane Katrina, anyone?) into an inspiring example of selfless leadership that perfectly fit McCain’s campaign slogan, “Country First.” (Granted, ignoring Gustav was never really an option; the showiness surrounding the sacrifice of that first evening felt pretty political; and there actually was plenty of partisanship on display that evening — e.g., Laura Bush noting that all the governors saving the Gulf Coast from Gustav just happened to be Republicans. Still, it was a lucky break.)

And Gustav didn’t just reinforce McCain’s master narrative. It also made it easier for him and the rest of the GOP to distance themselves from President Bush. Thanks to the weather gods, the president and his debilitating unfavorable ratings never made it to Minnesota. Bush restricted himself to a video address on September 2, thereby de-emphasizing his central role in the party and avoiding any awkward reprise of 2000’s infamous Bush-McCain hug. And all this, in turn, made it easier for McCain — who, according to Congressional Quarterly, voted with the president 95 percent of the time this past year — to cast himself as an Obama-esque agent of change when he accepted the nomination two days later. (The party faithful got the message, too; when I chatted with one California delegate in the Fox News tent, she answered every reference I made to the president with this riposte: he’s not running. That’s a tough point to debate.)

RIP, Straight Talk Express
So why — with everything going so swimmingly — did McCain decide to pick a fight with the press?

Rise of the political bogeyman The Republicans appear headed to a second straight national pummeling, which will leave it marginalized in the federal government and an increasing number of state houses. Many party faithful are already noting the need for the GOP to move back toward the moderate center to survive. But the conservatives with microphones are heading down a very different path — and their followers, who now dominate the Republican Party, are going right with them.

Travels with Sarah Apparently, the idea of Palin as the Queen Esther for our time has made it to New Hampshire.

Sarah, get your AK-47 Ever since John McCain selected Sarah Palin to be his running mate, she has been the focus of the campaign.

Rallying cries Though the press focuses on organization, tactics, and fundraising, campaigns are won by unifying ideas.

Five alive After a historically long pre-caucus campaign, the 2008 race for the presidency is finally in gear in Iowa.

If words could kill Those of us who make our living by writing know that words are among the most powerful tools in human society.

Sarah Palin, Inc. Confused commenters have no clue as to the opportunities that await Palin — because few understand the extraordinary, multi-billion-dollar marketplace that has developed for movement conservatives.

McCain still able Until the past week or so, the press had pretty much written off John McCain’s chances of gaining the GOP nomination.

Offa my couch, Larroquette In a video posted to his Web site, former Rolling Stone Ringo Starr has lovingly warned his fans to stop sending him fan mail.

BULLY FOR BU! | March 12, 2010 After six years at the Phoenix , I recently got my first pre-emptive libel threat. It came, most unexpectedly, from an investigative reporter. And beyond the fact that this struck me as a blatant attempt at intimidation, it demonstrated how tricky journalism's new, collaboration-driven future could be.

STOP THE QUINN-SANITY! | March 03, 2010 The year is still young, but when the time comes to look back at 2010's media lowlights, the embarrassing demise of Sally Quinn's Washington Post column, "The Party," will almost certainly rank near the top of the list.

RIGHT CLICK | February 19, 2010 Back in February 2007, a few months after a political neophyte named Deval Patrick cruised to victory in the Massachusetts governor's race with help from a political blog named Blue Mass Group (BMG) — which whipped up pro-Patrick sentiment while aggressively rebutting the governor-to-be's critics — I sized up a recent conservative entry in the local blogosphere.

RANSOM NOTES | February 12, 2010 While reporting from Afghanistan two years ago, David Rohde became, for the second time in his career, an unwilling participant rather than an observer. On October 29, 1995, Rohde had been arrested by Bosnian Serbs. And then in November 2008, Rohde and two Afghan colleagues were en route to an interview with a Taliban commander when they were kidnapped.

POOR RECEPTION | February 08, 2010 The right loves to rant against the "liberal-media elite," but there's one key media sector where the conservative id reigns supreme: talk radio.