8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Population Population over 16 Mobile users Smartphones PCs Global population (bn) Growth to 2020 2015 The world in 2020 By 2020 perhaps 5bn people on earth will have a smartphone Source: World Bank, GSMA, Apple, Google, a16z

9 An iPhone 6 CPU has 625 times more transistors than a 1995 Pentium. iPhone 6 launch weekend: Apple sold ~25x more CPU transistors than were in all the PCs on Earth in 1995. Everyone gets a pocket supercomputer. Source: Apple, Intel, a16z

12 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Least developed countries Developing Developed World 500MB mobile data as % per capita gross national income* 2013 2014 Though data is still expensive at the margin Access to affordable data (and power) is the largest remaining barrier for new users, not the price of the device * Prepaid handset-based plan. Source: ITU

13 Every corporation ‘Every home and every desk’ Every pocket The first universal tech product Mobile completes a journey from one computer on earth to a computer in every pocket

15 Mainframes 100k Workstations 10m PCs 1.5bn Mobile 5bn+ Mobile is the new tech ecosystem Tech moves forward by going from one ecosystem to the next, and each new ecosystem is a change in scale. Mobile has the scale of everyone on earth Source: a16z

17 Tech moves in ecosystems. Each ecosystem is the centre of innovation and investment for that generation. The ‘PC’ ecosystem played that role for 30 years: now the ‘mobile’ ecosystem takes over.

18 What does ‘mobile’ mean? These are ‘PCs’, but not ‘personal computers’: they’re the product of the PC ecosystem. The same proliferation will happen around ‘mobile’ Source: Google18

19 Hardware innovation centres on ARM and smartphones Software shifts to a native touch UX Secure, sandboxed software model iOS & Android operating systems ‘Mobile’ is an ecosystem, not a screen size The change isn’t screen size or keyboards – those are all just options. The change is the shift to a new ecosystem with 10x the scale

23 Our grandparents could count their electric motors. Our parents could count the things they owned with a chip inside. We can count our connected devices. Our children…

24 ‘A computer shouldn’t ask anything it could work out’ Sensors profoundly change what a computer can know Every new sensor creates new businesses Sensors everywhere, data everywhere Smartphone components and sensors drive a step change in data

25 New systems, not just new products Ubiquitous connectivity and sensors enable fundamentally new approaches Operating efficiency Know exactly how the product is operating all the time Product design Knowing exactly how a product operates enables new designs System design Understanding everything in a system enables a new system

28 Fundamental reduction in mechanical complexity Different supply chain, manufacturing structure Change who can make cars, and how Electric Each city will reach an different equilibrium point Fewer cars Who owns on-demand fleets? What kinds of cars do they choose? On-demand Rocket fuel for on-demand – far more supply, lower costs (driver, insurance, parking) New vehicle types, ownership structures – and new real estate models Autonomous Smartphones with wheels Three ways to think about cars, if you’re a software company

34 A tool for real work: the Friden Adding Machine “Electronic data processing systems did not come about for the purpose of replacing any type of office equipment. There will always be a place for the machine based on mechanical and electro-mechanical principles.” Source: National Office Machine Dealers Association, 1957

39 And work changes. A thousand VPs today… When we say ‘real work’, do we mean what the business needs, or the tools we have now? Download data from business systems – SAP/Salesforce/Oracle (or a really big Excel file) Make charts in Excel, copy charts into PowerPoint & write bullets Email PPT to 20 stakeholders “I need a PC, mouse and keyboard to do my job” But actually, your job isn’t to make PowerPoints And that PowerPoint should be a SaaS dashboard with live data and a Slack channel

40 Tools follow workflows, then reshape them First you make the new tools fit into the old way of working. Over time, the work changes to fit the new tools 10x better data 10x less typing 10x better data 10x less typing

41 Cloud, AI and mobile devices drive new tools and new workflows. Unbundling & rebundling of business tasks. New connective tissue for the enterprise.

45 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2013 2014 2015 ‘What’s your most important device for accessing the internet?’ (UK, summer 2015) Desktop Laptop Tablet Smartphone And now we move to mobile Devices based on the new ecosystem are already overtaking the old one Source: Ofcom

47 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Mobile share of US ‘Black Friday’ ecommerce Share of traffic Share of sales Ecommerce is shifting Mobile can now be over half of ecommerce traffic and a third of revenue Source: IBM

48 Only at home 8% Mainly at home 16% Both at home and outside 66% Mainly out of home 9% Only out of home 1% Where do you use the internet on your phone? (UK, 2014) Mobile doesn’t mean ‘mobile’ People don’t use the internet on their phone when they’re mobile – they use it everywhere 40-50% of all smartphone traffic happens on wifi* Source: Ofcom, *Facebook, *Cisco

50 Mobile means richer, not limited The smartphone is now a more capable and sophisticated internet platform than the PC Personal Touch Sensors Cameras Location Payment Social integration Security And much easier to use…

51 Mobile is not a sub-set of the Internet anymore. Mobile becomes the Internet – the main way that most people go online. Saying ‘mobile internet’ = saying ‘color tv’.

52 Mobile’s multiplier effect Increase in sophistication and complexity of mobile is as important as the increase in scale ! Vastly bigger opportunity = 3-4x more smartphones than PCs Used everywhere Used much more Used in more sophisticated ways

62 A smartphone OS isn’t a neutral platform Smartphones are internet platforms. On PC you built for web: on mobile you build for the OS. Interaction moves down the stack from apps and the browser into the OS itself. And Apple and Google keep changing things for everyone. Source: Apple, Google

63 And more platforms from maps and social New discovery, engagement and user acquisition models. Moving up the stack. Baidu Maps (screenshots) and WeChat have achieved this in China – Facebook and others trying to follow. Car services Hotels Local services Source: Baidu

64 More and more platform experimentation Huge scale opportunities and low entry costs mean endless experiments. New interaction, content and interaction models all the time. How to get usage, and who to send (or sell) it to? Keyboards ‘AI’ chat bots SnapChat Source: Riffsy, Facebook, Snapchat

69 Web Smartphone apps Messaging? Maps? Now? Siri? Bots? Notifications? Looking for a 3rd run-time, with acquisition We unbundled the web into apps – now we try to unbundle or rebundle again, creating new ways to provide services, generally focused on new ways to acquire users