christopher price

Breaking down the AFC playoff picture

With the post-Thanksgiving stretch starting this week -- and the Patriots having put enough separation between themselves and the rest of the AFC East to start talking about possible division-clinching games -- it’s not too early to take a look at the AFC playoff picture. With that in mind, if the postseason started today, here’s how things would look:

1. Texans (10-1). Houston is in the driver’s seat in the conference playoff race, having won 10 of its last 11, and would currently gain one of the two first-round byes. The Texans have been pushed to the limit the last two weeks -- they’ve barely survived a pair of overtime contests, posting narrow wins over the Jaguars and Lions. A relatively young Houston team did get some postseason experience last year with a win over the Bengals and a competitive contest against the Ravens in Baltimore, but in the current group of playoff aspirants, no team has less of a postseason resume than the Texans. It will be interesting to see how they respond as a group if/when Houston hits the road in January. Regardless, the Colts will play a huge role in determining Houston’s playoff fate -- Indy will play the Texans twice over the last five games, including the last regular-season game of the year at Lucas Oil Stadium. (The thought of Patriots fans rooting for the Colts on that last day would be interesting.)

Remaining schedule:

Dec. 2 at Tennessee (4-6)

Dec. 10 at New England (8-3)

Dec. 16 vs. Indianapolis (6-4)

Dec. 23 vs. Minnesota (6-4)

Dec. 30 at Indianapolis (6-4)

2. Ravens (8-2). Even with some serious injuries, Baltimore is clinging to the No. 2 spot and a first-round bye as the stretch run begins. But the Ravens have a tough toad down the stretch, with games against the Steelers, Broncos, Giants and Redskins. If Baltimore stumbles and the Patriots continue to win, New England has an excellent shot at overtaking the Ravens for the second spot. However, when it comes to a possible head-to-head matchup with the Patriots for the No. 2 seed, the Ravens hold the trump card because of their Sept. 23 win over New England. (For a complete look at the tiebreaking procedure, click HERE.)

3. Patriots (8-3). The Patriots fundamentally wrapped up the division with Thursday’s win over the Jets (it would take a collapse of epic proportions for them not to see free AFC East swag in their locker sometime over the next three weeks), and could still land one of the top two seeds. New England has some cupcakes left on the schedule (a home game against the Dolphins and a road game against the woeful Jags stick out in that department), but back-to-back games with the Texans (Dec. 10) and 49ers (Dec. 16) will got a long way toward gauging how successful this team can ultimately be. New England needs some help, but can still make that No. 2 seed. As it stands right now, the Patriots would host a first-round wild card game against the No. 6 Steelers.

Remaining schedule:

Dec. 2 at Miami (4-6)

Dec. 10 vs. Houston (10-1)

Dec. 16 vs. San Francisco (7-2)

Dec. 23 at Jacksonville (1-9)

Dec. 30 vs. Miami (4-6)

4. Broncos (7-3). If the postseason opened today, Denver would face the No. 5 Colts in a wild-card contest in Denver, and how flat-out fantastic would a playoff game between Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck be? The Broncos have a very easy schedule the rest of the way -- only two teams on their schedule (the Buccaneers and Ravens) have records over .500, and the combined record of their remaining opponents is 21-39. If the Patriots stumble at all down the stretch, Denver could sneak past them down the stretch for the No. 3 seed.

Remaining schedule:

Nov. 25 at Kansas City (1-9)

Dec. 2 vs. Tampa Bay (6-4)

Dec. 6 at Oakland (3-7)

Dec. 16 at Baltimore (8-2)

Dec. 23 vs. Cleveland (2-8)

Dec. 30 vs. Kansas City (1-9)

5. Colts (6-4). Indy has been a very nice story over the course of the first 10 games, but will be tested down the stretch with a pair of games against the Texans. This week, it will be interesting to see how the Colts respond to the 59-24 beatdown they received at the hands of the Patriots last week, as they host a feisty Bills team that had shown a lot of positives over the last few weeks. Has the clock struck midnight on the AFC’s most likely Cinderella team, or can they continue their remarkable run?

Remaining schedule:

Nov. 25 vs. Buffalo (4-6)

Dec. 2 at Detroit (4-7)

Dec. 9 vs. Tennessee (4-6)

Dec. 16 at Houston (10-1)

Dec. 23 at Kansas City (1-9)

Dec. 30 vs. Houston (10-1)

6. Steelers (6-4). Pittsburgh is not playing its best football right now. The Steelers lost to the Ravens at home, and barely beat the woeful Chiefs. Pittsburgh is down to its third-string quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger is expected to be back for a Week 13 game with Baltimore), and still has dates with the Ravens, Bengals and the occasionally erratic Cowboys. With one game left against Cincinnati and the Steelers holding a one-game lead on the Bengals in the AFC North race, Pittsburgh could feel the heat from Cincinnati if it stumbles down the stretch.

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