Audio 3:37
World remains on track for dangerous climate change

Jake SturmerUpdated
Tue Nov 19 14:40:00 EST 2013

A new report has found the world's carbon dioxide emissions are set to reach 36 billion tonnes for 2013 - an unprecedented level in human history. The Global Carbon Project's latest snapshot of C-O-2 generated from fossil fuels shows the world remains on track for dangerous climate change.

Transcript

ELEANOR HALL: The CSIRO says the world's carbon dioxide emissions are set to reach 36 billion tonnes for 2013. It's calling it an unprecedented level in human history.

The Global Carbon Project's latest snapshot of CO2 generated from fossil fuels, shows the world remains on track for dangerous climate change.

MICHAEL RAUPACH: Based on the projections of the world economy and the relationship between economic activity and carbon emissions, is for a 2.1 per cent growth. In other words we see a continuing increase in carbon emissions.

JAKE STUMER: But the rate of growth is beginning to slow, although different countries are contributing in significantly different ways.

MICHAEL RAUPACH: China growing at near 6 per cent per year, the US at the moment declining at nearly 4 per cent per year, a decline in Europe and rapid growth by seven, nearly eight per cent per year in India.

JAKE STUMER: Scientists like Dr Raupach are stunned at the level of growth from nations like China.

MICHAEL RAUPACH: Seven years ago when we began work on this kind of project, China and the US were about equal. Now seven years later, China has zoomed ahead.

JAKE STUMER: Closer to home, Australia ranks as the 16th largest emitter in the world. But Dr Raupach says the country's emissions haven't increased or decreased this year.

MICHAEL RAUPACH: We are stabilising our emissions. We also have a small tendency for emissions in the energy sector to have decreased. There's been a slight decrease, less than 1 per cent over the last year in the observations.

That's offset by an increase in the emissions from other sectors, particularly fugitive emissions, largely because of the expansions of the coal seam gas industry.

JAKE STUMER: It's not just rapidly developing economies that have seen significant emissions growth. Japan has had a substantial rise as well.

And it's just slashed its emissions reduction target - instead of aiming for a 25 per cent cut of 1990 levels, it's now tentatively aiming for a 4 per cent cut from 2005 levels.

The CSIRO's Dr Pep Canadell says that's not a good sign.

PIP CANADELL: It is not the things you want to hear from the developed world which we need to lead the way for climate change if anything has to happen.

JAKE STUMER: In terms of leadership, Australia's been criticised for a lack of it at the climate change talks in Warsaw. Does Australia need to take a bigger role in tackling future emissions?

PIP CANADELL: Australia, for its population, has a disproportionate effect in global international negotiations and climate negotiations particularly, so it is very important. I think that what Australia does or doesn't do, it does actually have a disproportionate effect.