posted at 5:21 pm on June 20, 2013 by Allahpundit

They’re actually lowballing it, I think, by assuming only 45 safe Democratic votes right now. You’ll lose a couple of Dems on this, but nine? Mark Pryor already did his good deed to impress Arkansas conservatives by voting no on expanded background checks. Joe Manchin doesn’t have to face West Virginians again until 2018. Besides, immigration reform already polls well in general terms and today’s flashy Corker/Hoeven amendment gives fencesitters a way to support the bill while claiming that they held out until there was “real” border security included. Let’s assume that there are really more like 49 Democrats prepared to vote yes, plus the four Republican Gang of Eight-ers, plus Corker and Hoeven, plus the dependable RINOs like Kirk, Murkowski, and Collins. Kelly Ayotte’s already declared her support, and Orrin Hatch made a deal with Schumer during the Judiciary Committee mark-up on visas for high-skilled workers. That’s 60, even by a conservative estimate, and that’s enough to break a filibuster. With that kind of bipartisan political cover, expect a few more Dems to take the plunge — and multiple GOPers along with them.

For some reason, WaPo has Dems Mary Landrieu and Mark Begich as “likely” yeses and Collins as merely a “potential” yes. That seems backwards to me, notwithstanding Collins’s worries about being primaried by tea partiers. But no matter; they’re probably all on board in the end. More from the whip count:

They forgot that Tom Coburn’s also pledged not to seek another term in 2016. Assuming that he’s retiring too, that leaves seven senators who have nothing to lose by voting yes, plus Christie’s appointee from New Jersey who’s all but a cinch to vote yes as well. That’s 68, with 17 still left on the fence to be gotten. Schumer’s said all along that he wants at least 70 votes for the bill in order to apply more pressure to the House. Think he, O, and Reid will be able to shake loose two more votes from those 17? Manchin’s there, as are bluish-staters Pat Toomey, Dean Heller, and Rob Portman. Jon Tester’s showed that he’s not afraid to be a loyal Democrat despite hailing from a red state by voting for expanded background checks and endorsing legalized gay marriage. Honestly wouldn’t surprise me if they ended up with something like 75 votes instead of 70.

Like I said this morning: This is all fine, and possibly even politically beneficial, if you think the House is prepared to resist the Senate pressure and drive a hard bargain. If not, we’ve got big problems. And by the way, if you’re feeling suddenly optimistic about border security because of the big surge in Border Patrol demanded by Corker/Hoeven, go have a look at the graph DrewM posted. The growth area in illegal immigration in the years to come, according to CBO, isn’t people crossing the border illegally and outrunning the BP. It’s people being admitted perfectly legally under a visa and then quietly disappearing once their visa expires. How does extra Border Patrol solve that problem? It doesn’t, but it makes for an awesome talking point when you’re trying to get 70-75 votes in the Senate.

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I’m all for independence and not always voting “the party line,” but in this all important case we must consider any Republican that crosses over to the Democratic side to be a traitor. Pure and simple. Can you say: primary. Can we say: this will be remembered, for years.

And the “rationale” is simple for not going along with the Schumer plan (I’d say the Schumer-Rubio plan, but Rubio is simply to green and immature to have been a major player, he’s been played). Anyway the rationale to not back the Dems is:

Bring on the 600th vote. Vote it through. I’m sure Hannity will celebrate with Rubio. Boehner will shove it through to his great glory.

Do it now. No waiting. It will save our country. It will benefit us all tremendously. If it isn’t pushed through by next week, we will all lose so much. Current citizens will reap rewards. It will make Obamacare stronger. Deficits and debt will disappear. Jobs will fall from the skies. We will be the envy of the earth.

Senors y Senoritas, Ladies and Gentlemen, Peeps and Peepettes, Rulers and Ruled. The time will come when a sovereign people America will outlive its usefulness. Marx, either Groucho or Karl, I can’t remember which, maybe it was both or maybe it was Harpo, once said that in American liberty is the opiate of the people. I say that when a sovereign people America outlives its usefulness and becomes a third world nation , then opium…will be the opiate…Ahh that’s not a bad idea… we are going to need that badly especially when the booze runs out …

And the completely unbiased and bi-partisan panel, has determined to give the grand prize to Marco Rubio for his EARNESTY’S RAINBOW. Now EARNESTY’S RAINBOW is a token of this man’s genius…he told me so himself and repeatedly … that he could change perceptions by calling his plan for knocking down those pesky borders EARNESTY …in other words, he could have been more specific, but rather than allude to an articulation of the mundane, he has come to the conclusion that brevity is the importance of our nation’s shallow first world existence. God damn!

Marco Rubio’s . EARNESTY’S RAINBOW – is a small contribution to a certain degree, since there are over seven billion people in the world today. 315 of them … million live in the United States, which is a very, very small amount compared to those who will be miserable end enslaved and dying elsewhere…Well, I say that you will be on the road to new horizons, for we who live in a society where citizenship is a commodity and a politician can become a TV personality and very wealthy, it’s not easy to conform if you have any morality…I, I, I said that myself many years ago…

But I do want to thank the Political Establishment…I mean the RNC … I mean the DNC and it’s subsidiary the RNC, the organization for the $1,000 in affirmative action latino scholarships they’ve given out…this afternoon they took in over $4,000,000, but they do have expenses for their consultants you know, and I think that I have another appointment. I would like to stay here, but for the sake of brevity I, I must leave. I do want to thank you, and I want to thank Marco Rubio – acting el Presidenta of la Raza Mexiamerica and also Mr. Obama – acting Pharaoh, Peeping Tom … I mean Spy Master … and Drone Commander of the New World Order – and also I want to thank Professor Irwin Corey and again, thank you. …

Far more disturbing to me than amnestying people already here is the MASSIVE increase in legal immigration proposed in this bill. Do we need more people in this country? Really?

The goal of Obama and the Socialist party he heads is to ‘fundamentally transform’ America into a socialist state with an omnipotent central government and fundamentally transforming our demographics is how they plan to do it.

I don’t support amnesty but I’d take it in exchange for stopping all further immigration for a decade or more if not permanently. We need a break to assimilate the invading hordes.

Johanns was dubya’s pet poodle so he’ll vote “yes”. He shut down a major ICE sting operation here in NE that was catching hundreds of illegal packing house workers and preparing to deport them. The amnesty people started whining about splitting up families, Johanns got the sting shut down and managed to finesse the retirement and relocation of the ICE management guys who were running the sting. Shortly after, dubya picked him as Sec of Ag. Someone wrote up a piece on this. Big labor, and Johanns is a snake in the grass. He hides it well.

Correction: (5:31pm) Rubio is too green to have been a major player in the legislation. I idiotically said “to,” I usually let those things slide, but I had a reason to talk more about the too immature point. The greenness you see in Rubio’s (baby) face… he just doesn’t seem to have gravitas, weight, or kind of engrained character. How could Rubio have been behind this bill, when you consider this (my qotd comment yesterday):
The Daily Caller did a piece by Betsy McCaughey showcasing the horrible fine print in the immigration bill: http://dailycaller.com/2013/06/19/senate-immigration-bill-full-of-bad-so-far-ignored-provisions/
There’s talk about all kinds of matters being handed off to “community organizers.” No joke. McCaughey warns: “Outsourcing these functions would permit community activists to rewrite America’s past and principles with a partisan slant.” My comment:

Let us be clear, that’s with a Democratic slant. This bill is a monstrosity, reworking, like Obamacare, the very fabric of govt to support leftist ends. Rubio, and certainly the more mature McCain, should be absolutely ashamed of supporting it.

Sen. Burr (NC), if you vote yes on this thing, primarying you ahead of 2016 will be our #2 agenda item behind retiring Sen. Hagan in 2014. The best cover you Senators can give the House is to barely pass it – if you pass it at all. Let the Dems own this train wreck too.

The fix is in and it’s been in for a while. This is an issue that I was unfortunately right about from the beginning. IT’s going to glide through the house latter this summer. Boner will , at best, allow a vote on some house bill (with stronger border/english language.. provisions) and then reconcile with the senate bill leaving immediate legalization of the illegals intact.

The borders will not be secured. The security promise has been made every few years for 40 years and even though multiple bills have been passed addressing the issue very little has been done.

This is a done deal. The Universities and MSM have succeeded. Along with Obamacare this is going to transform the country into something very different then it’s been for the last century. I’m afraid , in a decade, I’ll be watching the country I was born in burn. Hopefully, from a safe distance.

And by the way, here’s a huge mistake that Romney made in his campaign regarding his “strong” immigration stance. This is very important, actually, because it has a bearing on how Republicans play this issue in the future.

As Romney did on so many other issues (also critically: on gay marriage, and the fallout of that is still being felt today as Romney Eunuchized the Republican stance on that), Romney ran from immigration.

Rommney only was forced to state his position in debate. But Romney managed to get all the fallout from the left on his position, but none of kudos from those who oppose the Mexification of America, and believe me, there is huge huge number that oppose illegal immigration, these are often independent voters, but Romney failed to attract these voters, these voters felt that Romney was no different than O on immigration (or gay marriage), or these voters failed to consider those issues as Romney simply failed to raise awarness of those issues (as with ads!), so these independent voters were more easily taken by the charms of Obama, or they just stayed home (remember the “missing white vote”).

Romney ran no ads on the illegal immigration menace. He could of, and possibly have won the election. Republicans have to stand firm, that will win votes, but backing into a hole and trying to do a disappearing act like Romney did will lose votes, big time.

We actually need to keep this issue alive to help win future elections. This is the opposite of what rinos like Graham say. If we become like the Dems on this, we lose a sharp distinctive point that wins many independents for us. Otherwise we are just more like mush, and these voters are more likely to go with the “good feelings” of the Dems, or to be swayed by other issues where they differ from us, like conceivably abortion. Make immigration an issue that works for us.

I know Rubio didn’t write any of the legislation since he’s not that smart imo. This was written by outside supporters, i.e. LaRaza and other supporters from Mexico & their Lawyers with Reid as their guide.

Rubio was/is the front man, salesman. Hooked up with Zuckerberg that ran the ads for him.

Translation: Even if every Republican Senator and Congressmen votes for immigration reform, the Hispanic community, Mexicans and those of other countries, WILL NEVER VOTE REPUBLICAN. AND THATS THAT.

El_Terrible on June 20, 2013 at 6:37 PM

Exactly. It’s the pinnacle of insanity to think that the new immigrants are going to vote for us simply because we bend over backwards to pander to them.

Firstly, they know we don’t want it, and they know we would be just pandering. Instead, they will be laughing at us, as they call all their family members and friends in Mexico to come join them now with the liberalized policy and the border still unsecured. And the future immigrants will know a third amnesty will come, before the law is made such that any Mexican can come freely and be a citizen.

We are just going to legalize a huge number of voters that will vote against us. Absolutely insane. Don’t do it. Or we are done.

I hate HATE my Senators. Republicans have a SUPER majority in this state and we are stuck with Senators like Corker and Alexander.

Me too. Of course I think we should just call them both Senators Schumer. If you look at R governor and statehouse–they scuttle conservative legislation, expanded Medicare and embraced Common Core. Blue state governing.

The Only Relevant Issue In The Immigration Debate: What Is Good For The Country And Her Citizens? (UPDATED)

Resist We Much on June 20, 2013 at 6:53 PM

Wow, that contains a lot of examples of the results of the insanity that Congress is contemplating.

This is the bottom line from your comments:

When deciding whether immigration should be reformed, the primary issue should never be the ‘poor people living in the shadows’ or the illegals that are in line for deportation even though they have children are citizens. The supreme issue should be whether immigration reform is good for ALL American CITIZENS. American citizens did not cause illegals to have to ‘live in the shadows.’ Criminaliens made that decision when they chose to break our laws. American citizens are not responsible for the separation of families. Criminaliens are because they made the decision to either enter the country or overstay their visas.

Finally, and I’m looking at you Lindsey Graham, demanding border security first – as 4 out of 5 Americans do – and strict rules on immigration is not ‘racist.’ It is the birthright of American citizens to decide what happens to their country.

Americans are angry that immigrants, who have broken our immigration laws, are placed on a pedestal while the importance of citizenship and the welfare of natural-born Americans are diminished and the borders and culture is erased by those that have self-serving purposes.

*******************************************************************

I know that Wisdom is sorely lacking in D.C., but what is sad is that common sense is also.

So, one can only hope that Ann Coulter gets her wish and the GOP ceases to be; they’ve been dead to me since 2006.

I believe if this passes it will be a wish come true.

I suspect that there are some in the GOP, if the party self exterminates, that have been working for its demise, and would gladly become members of the sole major party remaining, because they have far more in common with that party than the base of the Republican Party. Its just that they’ve been able to get more personal political mileage out of claiming to be Republicans than if they had been Dems in the first place.

His Reno office staff says that calls are overwhelmingly against the amnesty bill.

We’ll see if he represents American citizen constituents or foreign invaders.

Boggles my mind why the GOP can’t proudly stand up and loudly say, “I stand for American citizens. I stand for immigrants who respect our laws and patiently wait in line, then come in the front door. I stand for the 23 million unemployed Americans. I value American citizenship too much to reward those who are trying to steal it.

And I am a forgiving person. I am all for a true amnesty — no jail time, no fines, no mass deportations — just go home on your own and take your children with you, or if you can stay here and live off your friends and legal relatives with NO GOVERNMENT BENEFITS – go ahead, until you commit a deportable crime”

And I am a forgiving person. I am all for a true amnesty — no jail time, no fines, no mass deportations — just go home on your own and take your children with you, or if you can stay here and live off your friends and legal relatives with NO JOB, NO DRIVER LICENSE, NO ACCESS TO FREE HEALTHCARE, NO ACCESS TO FREE EDUCATION, NO GOVERNMENT BENEFITS, NO NOTHING – go ahead, until you commit a deportable crime. And if you use our free emergency rooms, you get an escorted bus trip home the day after being discharged (with a free bag lunch!!).”