In the weeks leading up to Corbyn’s surprise entry, online campaigns were launched to find a better candidate – Lisa Nandy and Keir Starmer for example. Neither took the bait and Corbyn filled the vacuum.

Corbyn only got on the ballot paper after a Twitterstorm from members and supporters, demanding a wider range of views at a time when the party was locked in introspection following the disastrous General Election. In lending him some nominations, mainstream MPs terribly misjudged the mood of the grassroots.

Immediately, a challenge on core Labour values presented itself, with George Osborne timing his welfare cuts bill to maximum, divisive effect. When the three mainstream candidates abstained, it seemed to legitimise a frequent charge that MPs had lost touch with basic Labour aims and values, and were more concerned with positioning than principle. From that moment on, Corbyn was dominant.

One might think Corbyn’s numerous opponents would have learnt something but, on the basis of this leadership contest, that isn’t the case. With all due respect to Owen Smith and Angela Eagle, who on earth decided they were the best alternatives?

However it looks like Labour MPs are making all the same mistakes. It appears that they are going to overwhelmingly nominate Smith, despite him being unscrutinised and never mentioned by anyone as a future leader until a few days ago.

As with Corbyn’s 2015 rivals, issues could be his undoing. Though Smith is defining himself as a left-winger, who loyally served under Corbyn, his profile tells a different story.

It is a stone-cold certainty that these historic positions will be thrown at him during the contest by opponents and the media. Fairly or not, he will be labelled a ‘Blairite’ – a toxic term amongst Labourites that resulted in Liz Kendall (arguably a better candidate) getting just 4% last year.

In the next few days, those divisions will rise to the fore, regardless of the leadership contest. MPs are due to vote on renewing the Trident nuclear deterrant, and Smith will be one of the rebels voting against Corbyn, alongside the Tory government. He even said today that he’d be prepared to fire a nuclear weapon if necessary.

Then there is Smith’s big new position – to campaign for a second EU referendum. In two or three years, that could look like smart politics but right now it looks opportunistic and anti-democratic. Given the MPs’ disregard for Corbyn’s huge mandate, one can almost hear Andrew Neil’s line of questioning – “What exactly is it you hate about democracy?”

Therein lies the problem. Smith is unknown and undefined. In some cases that can be an asset when a party is in the mood for change – see David Cameron’s leadership campaign in 2005. Here though, it is more likely to increase focus on all his negatives and Smith will be unable to produce a record to defend himself.

The rebels will have been buoyed by more terrible poll news for Corbyn in head-to-heads with Theresa May, proving their central argument that he is unelectable. But what happens to that argument when, in a few weeks, polls show Smith and/or Eagle faring no better or even worse? That is precisely what happened in last year’s contest.

The job of reclaiming the party is huge and requires a big beast to spearhead it. Yet, in keeping with previous contests, they just aren’t interested.

Alan Johnson would be perfect, just as he would have been a superior pick to Ed Miliband and Gordon Brown, only to sit on his hands. Chuka Umunna has shown no interest since withdrawing from last year’s contest – one he may well have won if prepared to face down press intrusion. It is bizarre that Tom Watson ceded responsibility to Angela Eagle – whom he thrashed in the deputy race.

Whilst I remain open-minded and loathe to have a big bet on the contest, as I’m awaiting for clarifications of rules and runners, my instinct is increasingly that Corbyn will win or should at least start at shorter odds than 1.92. Hence this morning’s advice on Twitter.

In addition to the imminent contest, I’m having a few big-priced plays on the Next Labour Leader market. If Corbyn remains leader, these bets still stand and presumably the question won’t come up for a couple of years at least. During that time, new faces will rise.

The trio that interest me are Lisa Nandy, Stephen Kinnock and Clive Lewis. The case for the first pair was laid out earlier, and Lewis has since entered my calculations.

The new Shadow Defence Secretary, who served in Afghanistan, would be perfectly poised to succeed Corbyn if the Left does inherit the party. He’s articulate, thoughtful and will become a regular face on TV now he’s in the Shadow Cabinet.

If Corbyn wins, Lewis could be a bridge to mainstream MPs and end up being a unity candidate. On first impressions, he seems infinitely more electable than Corbyn or John McDonnell!

Unfortunately there is only limited liquidity on this market, so I can’t really offer specific trading advice. I’ve been taking around 26.0 for Lewis and 70.0 for Nandy and Kinnock.

As the Brexit fallout continues to reverberate through British politics, the Labour Party stands on the brink of a destructive, potentially life-threatening civil war. On the latest count, 21 Shadow Cabinet members have resigned and a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn seems certain to trigger a leadership contest.

Considering the PM has said he wants a replacement in place by October, punters are taking a remarkable leap of faith in the power of the Labour rebels. Corbyn has made it clear he will stand in any subsequent leadership contest and, on the basis of polls conducted prior the EU referendum, will likely win it. It is only nine months since he won an enormous mandate from Labour members with 60% of the vote.

Whichever way these markets pan out, the race for Next Labour Leader will remain a fascinating, wide-open heat. Whilst there are obvious front-runners right now, if Corbyn hangs on for a year or two several more could enter the fray. At least the following ten are worthy of close inspection.