kirk minihane

No need to jump the gun on another David Ortiz contract

And now we're back in the tall grass with David Ortiz and his never-ending quest for respect and another contract. A return to the weeds.

The debate is endless, really, and we get lost in all the stuff that doesn't matter and forget the one thing that does. We can talk and write and tweet and argue all the usual angles for the usual reasons -- Ortiz as diva; Ortiz has reached the "pay him no matter what" status; Ortiz does this every year and will do it again next year; Ortiz as the greatest DH and "clutch" hitter in history; Ortiz as fan favorite; Ortiz as spoiled, entitled, out of touch jerk; Jon Lester will take less money than he would make on the open market to stay (as did Dustin Pedroia); and Ortiz has his hand out all the time. It's all essentially meaningless.

All that matters is this: The Red Sox shouldn't give Ortiz a contract extension right now because it would make zero business sense. Everything else is just background noise.

I'm still waiting to hear a solid case for handing over $15 million bucks to Oritz -- who will turn 39 a month after the end of the season, not exactly an age where one expects terrific production to continue -- 14 months before the start of the 2015 season.

Columnists and fans have really, really tried to talk us into it, right? Here's what I've heard so far: Oritz is the exception to the rule. Sure, Ben Cherington hasn't moved an inch from the philosophy of discipline he has been preaching since the Dodgers' trade, and sure, that philosophy has only led to a World Series title, a loaded farm system and some serious payroll flexibility over the next couple of years -- but this is Big Papi we're talking about! Or so the argument goes.

I expect and understand that from the fans. They should of course love Ortiz, this is a guy who has won three World Series and is coming off maybe the best October in the history of the sport. Plus, he's lovable and has become part of the city and all the charity work. I get it, I really do.

That doesn't excuse the media, who are climbing over each other to try and tell us why Ortiz should get more money. Look, I think John Tomase is the best columnist in Boston. That drives some people crazy, which is really to Tomase's credit -- there is nothing, nothing, worse than agreeing with a columnist all the time.

So maybe it's OK that I found his column in Wednesday's Herald -- "David Ortiz well worth price" -- to be almost completely wrong from soup to nuts. It's well-written as always, but there are a couple of points that don't pass the test. Here's a couple:

"The same people who have no problem with the Red Sox blowing untold millions on the likes of Carl Crawford or Josh Beckett or Daisuke Matsuzaka suddenly become hawkish comptrollers at the mere concept of paying Ortiz."

Who, exactly, doesn't have a problem with those deals? Maybe he means at the time of the contracts, but it's still a reach. All three were younger than Ortiz, and two (Crawford and Matsuzaka) were free agents. There was competition for services -- Ortiz is locked up and closing in on his fifth decade on the planet. This is why the "Ortiz makes less than Mike Napoli" argument doesn't work. Napoli was a free agent. If Ortiz had decided to sign a deal that ended in 2013, he'd have more money right now. But he instead elected for a little security (and a hell of a deal for a DH, one that he has absolutely earned to date).

Tomase, Part II:

"Let’s play a little game. Since signing a four-year, $52 million extension in 2006, Ortiz has made roughly $95 million. Had he signed a seven-year, $95 million deal before the 2007 season, that contract would go down as one of the most team-friendly in history. Any money he makes going forward he already has earned."

That's not how you want your organization to do business. Just pay Ortiz because he out-performed his previous deals? Again, I'll buy that if he's 28 years old and there's a chance he could sign somewhere else. Should the Patriots rip up Tom Brady's contract and give him $35 million a year? If Ortiz has a subpar (or injury-filled, not impossible given his age and history) 2014 he should make $15 million in 2015 because he didn't make enough money in 2011?

There's no risk to not signing Ortiz, which is of course why it shouldn't be done. This is a fascinating test case for the Sox -- ownership probably wants to sign him, and it wouldn't be a payroll choker by any stretch, but it would fail the discipline test. If Ortiz has another monster season, guess what happens? The Red Sox will sign him for a lot of money. He wants to be here and the Red Sox want him here. Might even be a little more than they would have to pay him today, but the odds are against Ortiz duplicating the last few years.

The prediction here is the Red Sox cave in and give Ortiz the extra year. John Henry wants to keep Big Papi happy, so that means $15 million for 2015 and hope that he continues to do things that no other player has done at his age in the post-Balco era.

That $15 million will give Ortiz, finally, the respect he craves. At least for a year. And then we'll return to the tall grass again.

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