Tuesday, 2 September 2014

Decline of the Church of England – Update 2001-2012

A year ago I applied the Limited Enthusiasm Model church
growth to the decline of the Church of England, based on its published
attendance figures 2001-2011 [1]. Since then Statistics for Mission 2012 has
been published by the C of E with various updates to figures [2]. This blog
aims to analyse the revised C of E data, using the Limited Enthusiasm Model,
and see how the predictions have changed.

Recap on Results

In the 2001-2011 analysis I presented two scenarios: an
optimistic one, which suggests the C of E starts growing again in the future,
about 2030; and a pessimistic one, where the C of E declines slowly to
extinction. Attendance data alone is not sufficient to distinguish between the
two scenarios; however the underlying cause of the change is the production of
enthusiasts, those responsible for conversion and recruitment. If enthusiasts
are slowly growing then the optimistic scenarios is more likely, if the are declining
then extinction is the more probable result.

Of course it is very hard to count enthusiasts, but it may
be possible to measure their other by-products, such as an increase in
spiritual activities, community engagement and the like. There are examples of
such things in the church, though it is not clear if there are enough.

However the latest findings from the C of E, and some
further investigations of the model, suggest caution in thinking there are
optimistic scenarios. So what has changed?

1. Attendance 2012

Firstly there is now an extra data point for 2012. This time
the Church has decided to revise its way of calculating the “All-Age Weekly
Attendance”. This has lead to a downward revision of the numbers since 2008.
For data fitting to work the measure of attendance used has to be consistent throughout the whole
of 2001-2012. However this is easily corrected and the result is no change at
all. Both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios survive

2. Different Measures of Attendance & Membership

The second potentially confounding factor is that the Church
computes different measures of “size”. For example there are membership
figures, which are the electoral role, not updated every year. Membership tends to lag attendance in
declining churches [3], so not an ideal measure.

There is also adult
attendance, Sunday attendance, Easter attendance, highest weekly attendance, usual
Sunday attendance and, new in the 2012 report, worshipping community! Confusing? Well there is no simple answer to
the question “how many people attend church”. There are regulars and occasionals,
but even regulars go on holiday, so
on an average count would not give a full a 100% return. Occasional could be anything from once a month to once a year! So
multiple measures are needed.

To a modeller it pays to look at all measures, they are measures
of slightly different communities. But the Limited Enthusiasm Model can be
applied to any type of community, as long as the data is consistently measured
over time. The data-fitting is looking for curvatureover time. The right sort of slowing down curvature could
indicate growing enthusiasts and a bounce back. So the measure of attendance issue does not change
the results.

3. Leaving Rates

This time Statistics for Mission has estimated the number
leaving the church, and the number joining. The latter will include those born
into the church, and new converts. The reported numbers are not fully consistent as
even with death rates they suggest the church is growing, which it is not. But it
is likely a number of the “joiners” did so only occasionally, so may not get
measured in the All-Age Weekly Attendance figure I am using. All the same extra
data is always welcome!

The really interesting result is that the report suggests
the leaving rate for the C of E is about 1.25%, significantly lower than I had been using,
which was 5%. This sounds like good news, but for my scenarios it is bad news.

It is bad because it means to get an annual 1% annual
decline rate there must be less conversions than I had estimated, thus less
enthusiasts generated, which pushes the church further below the extinction
threshold than I had previously thought. In short there are few optimistic scenarios where
the C of E survives. Extinction due to lack of conversions is its likely fate.

A low leaving rate is also bad news as there is less
leverage to bring about an improvement. There is less scope to improve
retention.

Maybe their figures are wrong. I need to see the same
estimates for a few more years to be convinced.

4. Birth and Death Rates

The report also estimates the number of deaths in the
church, significantly higher than the national figure, a reflection of the
older age profile of the church. By the same token the birth rate in the church
will be lower than the national average. In some parishes the birth rate is
zero; the biological clock has ticked too far!

The published version of the Limited Enthusiasm Model was
not designed to handle this situation – my interest at that time was modelling
revival not decline! So I am busy revising the model. But it does mean the C of
E is even further below the extinction threshold as it needs to produce even
more conversions to make up for its higher death rate and lower biological
transmission.

5. Contact with Outside Community

Sadly the most optimistic scenarios in my models, the ones
where declining churches turn around, usually come about because the community
the church has contact with is growing. Unfortunately this is almost certainly
the reverse of the current situation. I suspect the growth is in the communities
with no church contact.

It is certainly true that there is growth in the non-Christian
community. More people in the 2011 census declared themselves non-Christian
compared with 2001. But that should not be assumed to mean they are out of
contact with the church, or less likely to be converted and join the church. If
the church contacts them at least they will know they are not a Christian
rather than just assuming it for cultural reasons as in the past! They may be more likely to
convert.

More telling is that the C of E is now too small to contact
all the UK population. There are communities, especially rural ones, with no parish churches at all. Additionally there is some evidence that the majority of
parishes do not engage in any widespread form of evangelism or witness. What
takes place only touches a small part of the wider community [4].

Again I need to revise my models to include the growth of
secular, hostile and disconnected communities. But, however it is modelled, it will put the C of E even further below the extinction threshold.

Conclusion

It is difficult to give a positive or optimistic view of the
future of the Church of England on the basis of the published data and my
models.Although extinction is a
few generations away that is little comfort for a church called to take the gospel to the ends of
the Earth and make disciples of all nations. The Kingdom is meant to grow!

But as I said, my models were born in the need to understand
revival. Ultimately there is no hope of sustained growth for any church unless it
has a God given revival, an outpouring of the Holy Spirit.The challenge I leave to any reading
this blog is not what you will do to tackle church decline, but will you take
revival seriously? Will you prayer for revival? Will you convince other
Christians of the need forrevival? Will you go on praying for the Holy Spirit to come until you
are an enthusiast, the type of revived Christian who will sacrifice all to
proclaim the gospel, and make converts and disciples for Jesus? Our optimism is in the promises, purpose and power of Jesus Christ!

References

[1] The Decline of the Church of England, Church Growth
Modelling Blog, October 2013

[4] Take a random sample of parishes and it is likely you
will find an absence of any sort of evangelism course such as Alpha,
Christianity Explored, Start and the like. Likewise community engagement
projects are either small scale or absent.

As well as the lack of contact between church and community, I fear the church is not as
bold as it was compared with say the late 1980s. Back then we had Marches for
Jesus through the streets of Britain. I think most Christians, even
Evangelicals, would be too embarrassed to do this now. Hopefully I am wrong.

2 comments:

John, Thank you for this extremely useful piece of work. I am an ordained Church of England Non-Stipendiary Priest, and although in retirement I know (as I feel you will) that God has called me again to return to ministry as an unpaid priest to a parish in Devon. I have been pondering over the Church of England's report which came out recently 'Resourcing Ministerial Education in the Church of England'. I have concluded that for all the effort the authors of the report made they have overlooked one extremely important point. It is, as you rightly say, that the reversal of the decline will truly only take place where congregations, enthused by the Holy Spirit, go out in that same spirit to communities, places of work etc. so that their living faith is 'caught' by others.I have been reflecting at length as to what form the particular parish's act of mission might take and you have affirmed my own thoughts and feelings. I feel the Holy Spirit is empowering me in this and that I was led to your blog as an affirmation.Thank you again.God bless you and your work

Hi George. Thank you for your helpful feedback. It is always nice to know that my work has encouraged someone in ministry. That is the main reason I do church growth modelling, to help people realise that despite the decline there are things they can do, with God's help, that will see church grow and reach people for Jesus Christ. The results show that small things make a big difference, and with the Holy Spirit there are big things available! I hope and pray you will see a move of the Spirit where you are and that you see Him make many enthusiasts. God bless. John