Thursday, July 21, 2011

Mississippi voters do not register by Party. When they vote in Primaries, they may choose to vote in either Party Primary. Most white candidates for local races run as Democrats - otherwise they will get no black votes. Black Mississippi voters will just not vote for a Republican - nor do I blame them. As Republicans have tried to take over our state, they have rarely had Republican Primaries. They couldn't afford to fight with each other. Consequently, most Mississippi voters chose the Democratic ballot - even if they were Republicans. That's where all the choices were - in many cases there were no Republican ballots.

This year is different. There are some very healthy Republican Primary races - but they're at the State level. The local races are still mostly Democratic Primaries. So what's a Republican to do? Which ballot do they choose? I'm predicting white voters will choose the Republican ballot in record numbers.

So what will that mean for the Democratic Primaries? The voters will be predominantly blacks and liberal whites. Some conservative white Democratic candidates may be able to convince enough of their friends to vote to eke out a win - but if they have a black opponent, they're in trouble.

Record numbers of black and liberal white Democrats will win Primaries - and in many races, that's the election. People (especially whites) will be shocked by the results - but you won't, now that I've warned you. When people express their shock, just ask them what Primary they voted in.

PS: Johnny Dupree wins the Democratic Primary without breaking a sweat. The General Election? That's a different story.