As we anticipated, the Republicans have climbed down on making the debt ceiling the key battle line in their plan to impose spending cuts. Good Democrats applauded that move as a sign that Obama had displayed toughness and prevailed.

It’s not quite that simple.

First, if you widen the frame, the budget jockeying is largely kabuki: which team is going to score more points that appeal (or more accurately, can hopefully be spun to appeal) to their base? The reality is that both parties are fully committed to imposing austerity. The only question is whether we get Dem Lite or Republican Hi Test. But rest assured, neither version will be good for ordinary Americans.

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Now it is undeniable that having the Republicans climb down from their “we’ll shoot the economy if that’s what it takes to get our way” stance is a step forward. But this tactical retreat was led by the Kochs, so I would not see this a sudden outburst of Republican temperance.

One way to tell how much the Republican bloodlust has faded (or not) is how hard they fight to delay getting Obama’s new Cabinet members in place, particularly incoming Treasury secretary Jack Lew. Having Lew not in officially as Treasury chief would be at a minimum an inconvenience (any reader input on what an appointee in waiting could do beyond advise informally is very much appreciated). Jack Sessions, the ranking member on the Senate Budget Committee, has said Lew must never be Treasury secretary, but he has not said whether he plans to filibuster the nomination. (Interestingly, filibuster reform, which seemed to be a Democrat priority, or at least was bruited about in December, has not been talked up much lately. If the Senate is going to move forward, it would behoove them to move quickly). Having Lew’s appointment delayed could hamper the Administration’s negotiating efforts.

Let’s put all this Democratic cheering in context: Obama is still eager to get budget cuts and “reform” Medicare and Social Security. We are likely to see those “reforms” given priority because both sides agree on that topic more than they do on how to implement the other elements of austerity, meaning spending cuts versus tax increases, particularly on upper income taxpayers. Obama does not have a strong point of view as to how deep cuts need to be, so long as he can preserve appearances that he is Being Responsible about the deficit and inflicting some pain on the wealthy. That gives him tons of room to sell out ordinary Americans.