China’s Summer Crop Yield to Drop Thanks in Part to Shrinking Planting Area

China’s summer crop yield is set to drop for the first time in six years as a result of a reduction in acreage, unfavorable weather conditions and adjustments in the crop structure, according to analysts. The country’s total crop harvest this summer is estimated at 121.8 million metric tons, according to a report by the CropWatch research team, the country’s leading crop monitoring system…Full Article: ECNS.cn June 2016

Key Points

In May 2016, China had an estimated grains reserve stockpile of 600 million MTs.

By 2020, China’s wheat production is expected to reach 131.9 million MTs on a cultivation area totaling 24.02 million hectares. The country’s total wheat consumption is also expected to reach 126.3 million MTs.

In April 2016, China’s Ministry of Agriculture announced it would increase soybean production at the expense of corn production. The Ministry of Agriculture also noted that soybean production will be promoted on farmland that has historically grown soybeans (e.g. Heilongjiang Province).

From 2015 to 2016, China’s Ministry of Agriculture expects its wheat cultivation area to decrease by 20,000 ha, totaling 24.12 million ha.

In November 2015, China announced plans to cut its corn production by 3.3 million hectares across 13 provinces/regions by the end of 2020. This decline in area will cut production by approximately 25 million MTs. According the Deputy Director of China’s Crop Production Department (under the auspices of the Ministry of Agriculture), the major corn producing regions of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang will see the largest declines in production area, while Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, Guizhou and Yunnan will also be affected somewhat.

In 2015, China harvested summer grain crops on 27.69 million ha of land.

In 2014, China produced 126.2 million MTs of wheat, with Henan Province accounting for 26% of total output, followed by Shandong Province at 18% of total output.

In 2014, China harvested 136.6 million MTs of summer crops (~25% from Henan province). Summer wheat and early-season rice harvests generally begin in late-May and end in early-July.

In 2014 (summer), Henan province (China’s largest by population and a major agriculture producer) carried out cloud-seeding operations (i.e. weather modification to induce rain by dispersing substances into the air) in order to minimize the effects of a drought.