Statistic du jour is ‘0’: The number of trade deals the EU is going to sign today.

Transport updates: Don’t forget roads and Schuman station are closed from noon today for the EU leaders summit. In better news: temporary pre-check structures at Brussels Airport are being dismantled.

ECB is expected to hold interest rates steady at its board meeting today.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM TONIGHT’S SUMMIT: This summit is a debacle before it even starts. The EU-Canada CETA deal will be the lead trade drama, but that debate is saved for Friday. Today’s trade problem is the unresolved Dutch referendum on the Ukraine association agreement. The discussion on Russia will also be a slug-fest over Aleppo concerns and the lack of good news from the Minsk agreement summit Wednesday. (At a late night press conference after the Wednesday summit concluded, Angela Merkel and François Hollande said they do not exclude additional sanctions against Russia over Moscow’s military involvement in the Syrian civil war: http://politi.co/2e2QsBV). Theresa May’s first summit will tell us nothing positive on Brexit (but she will rule out a second referendum, the Guardian reports) and the refugee situation is not as good as the Commission is spinning.

The logistics: Political parties meet in the morning, arrival interviews will take place in the early afternoon, and leaders will meet from 4 p.m. It’s migration up first, then over dinner the leaders will tackle Russia, Brexit and the Dutch referendum. Council President Donald Tusk will close the dinner with a presentation on new working methods for the leaders summits.

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EU SHOULD DO MORE ON SYRIA, INFLUENCERS SAY: The POLITICO Transatlantic Caucus polled ambassadors, senior advisers from the Brussels institutions and MEPs ahead of the summit. Almost half said the EU should take a more proactive role to secure peace, while more than two-thirds argued that the worst of the migration crisis was yet to come. Participants were particularly pessimistic about Europe’s relationship with Russia, with 66 percent saying that it will never normalize as long as President Vladimir Putin remains in charge. The full results: http://politi.co/2evJ8hj

MAY PRESENTS A UNITED BREXIT FRONT: Britain’s PM will attend the summit with agreement in her cabinet to restrict immigration. “TheresaMay has quietly won cabinet agreement to end the free movement of labor from the European Union. After agreeing to the need for new restrictions at a meeting of her Brexit cabinet committee last week, the prime minister committed to the introduction of a ‘targeted visa system’ for foreign workers on Tuesday.” Tom McTague: http://politi.co/2e2Uuu7

MATTEO RENZI’S SUMMIT: Two out of three main topics of discussion are the Italian prime minister’s requests — Russia and migration compacts — but he may live to regret it as both topics are headed in a negative direction. In the case of the migration compacts, we are beginning to see that the EU can be just as unreliable as a third party in the deal. For example, in the EU-Turkey deal, it is Greek judges who are often not allowing migrants to be returned.

RENZI SLAYS HIS OWN BRAND OF POLITICS IN US UNIVERSITY SPEECH: During an hour-long speech to Johns Hopkins University students in Washington D.C. Wednesday, Renzi urged his audience to “help us to surpass the politics of 140 characters.” He warned of the dangers of nationalism and isolationism driving populist movements in America and Europe, leading to what he described as “verbal violence.” Patrick Kelley: http://bit.ly/2elt1Ha

#Really? That’s the same Renzi who often says “I answer you in a tweet” before spelling out an answer meant to fit 140 characters, and the same Renzi who blasted his predecessor Enrico Letta with hashtags meant to annoy him in his final weeks in office (such as #enricostaycalm). http://bit.ly/2e9gGGH

COUNCIL’S NEWEST MEMBER: Former MEP Andrej Plenković was sworn in as his country’s prime minister last night. http://bit.ly/2eSrGqk

EUROGROUP — DIJSSELBLOEM TAKES DOWN STIGLITZ: Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem has taken aim at Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz for claiming “the EU will collapse if we keep pursuing our present policy on the common currency.” Dijsselbloem provided several examples including Sweden, Denmark, Czech Republic and Slovakia as proof “it is not the common currency but rather national economic circumstances and institutions that make the difference when it comes to limiting the build-up of financial imbalances.” http://politi.co/2emYBkq

COMMISSION TRADE POWERS UNDER THREAT: Alongside competition enforcement, the ability to do trade deals on behalf of the EU was the European Commission’s core executive power. That’s now in question, much like the trade deals the institution has been negotiating. Christian Oliver, Hans von der Burchard and Simon Marks. http://politi.co/2eS1uMB

CETA CIRCUS LATEST …

Socialist and Liberal party groups are applying pressure on Brelgium, say diplomats, while the European Commission is directly engaging with the Wallonia representation to the EU. Those diplomats Playbook spoke to say the problem in this debate is not the text of the deal, or what additional declarations are or are not appended to it — it’s purely political.

The driven life: One wag pointed out to Playbook that with every red traffic light in Brussels turned into a “STOP CETA” image, leaders and top diplomats literally could have seen this CETA problem coming … if they drove themselves around, that is.

Reality check: This is the man — Belgian Foreign Minister Didier Reynders — on whom Europe is counting to save the CETA deal. Here is Reynders showing his love for Canada: http://bit.ly/2esB5Rp. Here he is promoting some beautiful and potentially tariff-free lace on Belgian television in 2015. Oh, and he’s in blackface. PIC: http://bit.ly/2ekJxr8

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WHY CAMERON LOST THE BREXIT REFERENDUM, BY HIS ADVISER: Daniel Korski was present for many of the key arguments in the two years leading up to Britain’s vote to leave the EU. Here, in an 8,000 word article, the longest POLITICO Europe has published, Korski explains what went wrong. He suggests we look at the deep underlying trends in the EU and the U.K. rather than any 2016 tactics to explain the Brexit referendum result.

The EU’s errors: Institutions riddled with internal contradictions had become increasingly distant from voters. Korski also pins blame on the appointment/election of Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and how the British handled their attempt to block his nomination.

On the UK side: “Over many years, the British public were treated to nothing but the negative: story after story — many exaggerated, some invented, others all too true — of the EU’s failings. Nobody in power spoke of the positive things Europe provided … We did nothing to change the way Britons felt about the EU.” On practical issues like allowing 16- and 17 year-olds and long-term expats the right to vote, Cameron eventually realized he made a big mistake by barring them.

On political alliances: “One of [Cameron’s] proudest achievements was pulling the Conservative Party out of the European People’s Party, the main center-right grouping in the European Parliament.”

On the 2016 campaign: “The biggest problem facing the campaign was the failure of Labour to pull its weight.”

Assessment of other people’s officials: The “sherpas” advising national leaders are two-faced hypocrites who obstructed Cameron’s efforts at a reform deal.

Assessment of UK sherpa Ivan Rogers: “Ivan’s scorn for the right of the Tory Party seemed only rivaled by his hatred of the European leaders and officials who, in his view, hadn’t grasped they were heading for a fall.

Assessment of the final reform deal: Substantial but too complex to sell to voters.

“Most saw the talks as a nuisance to be dealt with (Merkel), dangerous to Europe (Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel), or damaging to their political careers (French President François Hollande). Italy’s Matteo Renzi looked like an ally and could always be relied on to voice criticisms of the EU. But while he might rail against the consensus in Council meetings, he usually folded quickly and agreed to whatever text had been prepared the day before.”

The migration myth: “We failed to find any evidence of communities under pressure that would satisfy the European Commission” that the U.K. was actually suffering from unmanageable migration pressures.

Biggest mistake: “Our failure to deliver the kind of deal we — and especially the media — had given the impression was possible. From the moment Cameron promised a referendum we should have built up the case for European cooperation, preparing the electoral battlefield we would eventually have to fight on. We didn’t. And so a better organized, more passionate adversary won.”

COUNCIL — SLOVAKS PRESSURE MEPs AHEAD OF BUDGET VOTE: The Slovak presidency stepped outside the bounds of institutional etiquette Wednesday by issuing a press release after a closed-door meeting with MEPs, demanding they “face reality” ahead of the vote next week on their 2017 budget position. “The amendments currently being discussed by the Parliament go completely into the opposite direction [to that suggested by the Commission and Council] … This neither reflects current needs nor respects the [EU’s seven-year financing] agreement.” Quentin Ariès and Maïa De La Baume have more: http://politi.co/2e8msIq

PARLIAMENT — MESSERSCHMIDT FIRED FROM PARTY LEADERSHIP: Kristian Thulesen Dahl, the leader of the Danish People’s Party, fired Morten Messerschmidt from the party’s leadership. There were also new revelations about potential misuse of EU funds by Messerschmidt. Harry Cooper http://politi.co/2e8hsDB

WORLD’S WEIRDEST INVITATION — WE HOPE YOU FEEL SPECIAL MICHELLE OBAMA! The Liberal ALDE group has decided to ask Parliament President Martin Schulz — via a press release — if he is willing to invite Michelle Obama to the Parliament to speak during International Women’s Day 2017. http://bit.ly/2drIzDc

What they said: “We feel her message is universal and urgent, and it would be an honor to welcome Mrs. Obama to the European Parliament.”

What they meant: “We don’t know her, but we think it might go viral and we want in on the action.”

Pro tip: When asking a favor from someone you admire, don’t do it via a press release.

FOCUS ON ROMANIA …

Luminiţa Odobescu, Romania’s permanent representative to the EU, sat down with Playbook to discuss her plans for Romania’s 2019 presidency of the Council of Ministers: “We have started our internal preparation … A task force was set up … Next week in Bucharest there will be a public event and debate on the presidency… It won’t be very easy because we have lots of fights on the table (especially Brexit).”

Odobescu also wants to make use of PM Dacian Cioloș, a former European commissioner, while he’s still in office: “He knows Brussels very well.” More broadly, she pitched Romania as the most pro-EU country in Europe: “There are no Euroskeptic parties, we trust Brussels in general … It’s part of our history, it’s part of our culture.”

Did you know? POLITICO has two Romanian journalists on staff: Carmen Paun (focused on health) and Anca Gurza (energy and climate). PIC http://politi.co/2ekLGmC

Five kids? You’re a hero! That’s according to a law passed by the Romanian senate, which gives mothers with three children or more a monthly payment for the rest of their lives and awards a medal to the ones with five children or more. The law still needs to pass the parliament’s chamber of deputies. http://bit.ly/2diOdMU

CZECH REPUBLIC— PROPAGANDA SUMMIT: From today to Saturday, the European Values think tank is hosting an event at the Ministry of Interior of the Czech Republic in Prague looking at Russian disinformation operations, with speakers including NATO Military Committee Chairman Petr Pavel and Czech Interior Minister Milan Chovanec.

For a while, it felt like a normal, well-ordered debate. Trump opened stronger than in the first two. Restrained and coherent, with zingers like “we have no country if we have no border.” Clinton repeated her long list of complaints about how Trump treats others and concluded: We’ve seen “that’s who Donald is. Now it is up to us to show who we are.”

But any new ideas or lines from Clinton were overshadowed by Trump’s break with 240 years of American tradition over accepting the election result. “I will keep you in suspense” is all Trump would offer after being repeatedly pressed to answer if he would accept the election result. He claimed “millions of people” are falsely registered to vote and that Clinton should not have been allowed to run as a candidate.

US 2016 fact du jour: For the first time in American history, there are now 200 million people registered to vote. http://politi.co/2dqTWve

Spotted: Steve Hilton late Tuesday afternoon wearing a “Love Me Love My Bike” t-shirt outside the fitness room at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas — he’s in the city to do presidential debate analysis for FOX.

BRUSSELS CORNER …

New café in the EU quarter: “The Office” at Rue d’Arlon 80 is spacious and full of plants (and not in Place de Luxembourg, which is itself a welcome change).

Seventh edition of the European Conference on Public Communication: It’s fully booked but most of the conference is webstreamed. http://bit.ly/2e7L69x; #Europcom

UberEATS is launching in Brussels as competition to Deliveroo, via a dedicated UberEATS app. It’s the fourth European city to have the service. Apparently the last smallest order was a donut.

APPOINTED: François Arbault has joined the team of the Commission’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier. Kris Dekeyser and Maria Velentza become directors in the Commission’s competition department, while Johannes Luchner becomes a director in the humanitarian aid department.

SPOTTED: Lord Jonathan Hill on the street outside his old European Commission department, DG FISMA.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT Harry Cooper and Zoya Sheftalovich.

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