Egyptian precedent, which surprised the world, is lesson in humility about guessing the future in the Middle East.

The unrest that toppled the autocracy of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia is
threatening to do more of the same in Hosni Mubarak’s Egypt. Literally
overnight, one of our few diplomatic assets in the Middle East – the cold but
stable peace with Cairo – is now dangerously fragile. Will the domino effect
spread? Will Jordan, the only other neighboring Arab country with whom we have
signed a peace treaty (in October 1994), soon be engulfed in its own popular
uprising?

Skeptics doubt it. True, on the past few Fridays since the Jasmine
Revolution ousted Ben Ali, thousands of Jordan’s mosque-goers have taken to the
streets after prayers in protest of high prices and other economic grievances,
while security forces have basically stood by, watching without attempting to
disperse them. Nevertheless, unlike Egypt, where Mubarak has been singled
out for ousting, frustration in Jordan has been vented primarily against the
government.

Even though it is widely known that King Abdullah II and a
small group of his advisers make the real decisions, disgruntled Jordanians have
been allowed to blow off steam in a semblance of free speech and assembly while
refraining from directly criticizing the king, an act punishable by
law.

Also, Abdullah has been sagaciously responsive. On Tuesday, the king
moved to defuse the potentially explosive situation by sacking Prime Minister
Samir Rifai. Rifai was sworn into office just over a month ago after last year’s
controversial November 9 election. A paltry 53-percent voter turnout was
attributed to a boycott by the Islamic Action Front – Jordan’s powerful Islamist
party, affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood – and general
apathy.

DESPITE HOPE of change when the Western-educated Abdullah, 49,
became king in 1999 after his father’s passing, gerrymandering and favoritism
continue to give disproportionate representation to sparsely populated rural
areas, to the detriment of cities, where most of Jordan’s approximately six
million people live. The setup favors tribal candidates, who generally support
government policies, over liberal and Islamic opposition politicians
concentrated in urban areas. A vote cast in Amman, for instance, carries only a
fourth of the weight of one cast in the dusty, rural town of Ma’an.

Now,
the king, reluctantly persuaded by the scenes in Tunisia and Egypt, seems
serious about reform. He told Marouf Bakhit, a former ambassador to Israel
tapped by the king to replace Rifai as prime minister, that his main task would
be to “take quick, concrete and practical steps to launch a genuine political
reform process.”

The move also seemed to represent partial acquiescence
to a demand made earlier this week by the Islamic Action Front that the present
government resign and that an electoral law be amended to facilitate a
democratically elected prime minister. The Front’s secretary-general Hamzeh
Mansur made it clear during a meeting with the government that “there is no
comparison between Egypt and Jordan. The people there demand a regime change,
but here we ask for political reforms and an elected
government.”

Abdullah is now faced with tough choices. Instituting true
electoral reforms would pit him against his political allies, reluctant to give
up their privileged status. It would also risk bringing Islamists to power, just
as the 2006 Palestinian elections brought Hamas to power on the other side of
the Jordan River.

If, on the other hand, Abdullah attempts to present
lofty-sounding reforms with no real content, he might soon face the type of
turmoil currently rocking Egypt. Jordanians, like their Egyptian and
Tunisian brothers, are fed up with the corruption that seems to pervade those
close to Abdullah’s regime. Al-Jazeera, on the offensive against autocratic Arab
leaders like Abdullah, is helping to fan the flames of dissent. Meanwhile, the
disenfranchised masses of Palestinians, including hundreds of thousands living
in Jordanian refugee camps, have so far remained quiet on the whole. If they
were to mobilize against Abdullah, it would have grave
consequences.

There are a lot of wild cards in Abdullah’s deck. The
Egyptian precedent, which surprised the world – experts no less than everyone
else – is a lesson in humility about guessing the future in the Middle East.

Sites Of Interest

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