Variable forecast for this winter in Northeast Ohio

With November now in the room, one of the for-sure questions on the minds of Northeast Ohioans is whether this winter will mirror last year's generally mild and dry one or mimic the snowy-bitterly cold winter of 2010.

Depending upon who you ask the answer is "yes," "no" or "maybe."

A highly variable outlook is transpiring, scientific weather-watchers are saying, due in no small part to a very weak El Niño in the mid-Pacific.

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Forecasters with National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center say a wavering El Niño, was expected to have developed by now, makes this year's winter outlook less certain than previous years.

"This is one of the most challenging outlooks we've produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center.

"In fact, it stalled out last month, leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific."

When El Niño is present, warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn influence the strength and position of the jet stream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and the U.S., Halpert said.

"This climate pattern gives seasonal forecasters confidence in how the U.S. winter will unfold," he said. "An El Niño watch remains in effect because there's still a window for it to emerge."

Thus, hedging its bets, NOAA expects the winter in Northeast Ohio to have equal chances of being above average in moisture and temperature, below average and average, Halpert said.

"This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations," he said.

"Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance."

Paul Pastelok, administrator for AccuWeather's long-range forecasting office, is more willing to go out on the weather limb, however. But, not too far out.

"We're kind of in the same boat," Pastelok said.

He said the way the winter weather forecast appears to break down for Northeast Ohio is that December won't be all that cold though residents should expect to still see "some shots of cold weather."

"However, January is shaping up to be slightly colder than average and even a bit colder in February," Pastelok said.

In short, these factors will be compared with last year. Or not.

"I did some work using last year's figures to this year's outlook, and I'm thinking that the difference is about 4 to 5 degree below from that encountered last year," Pastelok said. "And that's what people will notice as they heat their homes and dress -- that it is a little colder with a little more snow than they experienced last winter."

What has changed this year, besides a weaker El Niño, is a jet stream that will deviate from last winter's river of upper air that shuttled milder and drier air to the Lower Great Lakes.

"You'll actually have two jet streams: The Southern one that will bring moisture and a Northern one that will bring in blasts of cold air," Pastelok said.

"We can get a blast in November and December but we think it will become more likely in January and February."

Consequently, in terms of moisture, January could be the most active months or storms though systems could arrive virtually anytime, he said.

"If you get these bursts of cold air with a clipper we seem to do well with lake-effect," he said.

Contributing to the prospect of a snowy winter early on are the still largely moderate Lake Erie water temperatures.

Off Fairport Harbor, the water temperature is around 47, more than enough energy to pack a lake-effect punch, Pastelok said.

He also said the locations most likely to see heavy snows this winter likely are the Appalachians to the mid-Atlantic to New England.

And for snow birds who flock to the Southwest, they should pack a heavy sweater and maybe a good umbrella.

"If we were going with a strong El Niño we'd see rain but it's not so strong with perhaps slightly above average rainfall with slightly below average," Pastelok said. "That's why I pick the Carolinas over the Southwest as to which section of the country will likely see the least favorable weather."

As for the trusty, if not always reliable, Old Farmer's Almanac is more closely hugging AccuWeather's long-range winter forecast more than is the one produced by the federal government.

The almanac is calling for a generally cold and dry winter for Northeast Ohio along with a mild, snowy winter for extreme northwest Ohio.

Also like AccuWeather, the Almanac says that for Northeast Ohio, February will see the brunt of winter's wrath with enough lake-effect conditions and general snow showers to keep road crews busy and salt suppliers happy.

And the almanac agrees with AccuWeather that the Carolinas will experience a cold and snowy winter while the Southwest will undergo a cold, wet winter.

"Hopefully it will be cold enough to kill off some of the insect pests that managed to survive last winter," Pastelok said.