Trump’s Iran crisis endangered America’s role in the...

1of4Indian Shiite Muslims trample on a banner with a portrait of U.S. President Donald Trump during a protest against the recent U.S. attack that killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, near the U.S. embassy in New Delhi, India, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2020. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)Photo: Altaf Qadri, STF / Associated Press

2of4Syrian demonstrators burn the US flag as they gather in the central Saadallah al-Jabiri square in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on January 7, 2020, to mourn and condemn the death of Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani, and nine others in a US air strike in Baghdad. (Photo by - / AFP) (Photo by -/AFP via Getty Images)Photo: -, Contributor / AFP via Getty Images

3of4TOPSHOT - Iranian mourners gather during the final stage of funeral processions for slain top general Qasem Soleimani, in his hometown Kerman on January 7, 2020. - Soleimani was killed outside Baghdad airport on January 3 in a drone strike ordered by US President Donald Trump, ratcheting up tensions with arch-enemy Iran which has vowed "severe revenge". The assassination of the 62-year-old heightened international concern about a new war in the volatile, oil-rich Middle East and rattled financial markets. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP) (Photo by ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)Photo: ATTA KENARE, Contributor / AFP via Getty Images

4of4Coffins of Gen. Qassem Soleimani and others who were killed in Iraq by a U.S. drone strike, are carried on a truck surrounded by mourners during a funeral procession, in the city of Kerman, Iran, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2020. The leader of Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened on Tuesday to "set ablaze" places supported by the United States over the killing of a top Iranian general in a U.S. airstrike last week, sparking cries from the crowd of supporters of "Death to Israel!" (Erfan Kouchari/Tasnim News Agency via AP)Photo: Erfan Kouchari, STR / Associated Press

Peace, prosperity and global domination are part of the same package, and as the ancient Romans and the British imperials would tell you, it is very fragile.

The crisis in the Mideast, created by a president who trades on unpredictability and unilateralism, threatens not only energy prices and the global economy, but the global dominance previous U.S. leaders spent a century building.

Unless cooler heads prevail, we could see the kind of once-in-a-generation geopolitical transformation that may seem unimaginable but will seem logical in retrospect.

Economic, political and military power have always gone hand-in-hand, nudged by diplomacy or enforced with violence. In modern history, the strongest nation has always practiced the best diplomacy and possessed the biggest purse.

When the world is dominated by a single superpower, or maybe two in a standoff, the prevailing peace allows people to grow crops, build structures and expand businesses. They create wealth and improve their lives through a strong economy.

Rome dominated Europe, North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean between 27 BC and 180 AD in a period called Pax Romana. There were small wars and rebellions, but Roman rule over a third of the world’s population lead to widespread trade, peace and development.

A Chinese empire dominated Asia at the time, creating Pax Sinica. The peace during this period allowed the Silk Road to flourish, creating a global trading system. But the Roman and Han empires collapsed when abusive and corrupt rulers took over, and less powerful nations banded together against them. The economic Crisis of the Third Century followed.

Pax Britannica emerged in 1815, after Great Britain defeated Napoleon. Britain ruled the seas and established colonies around the world, until an anarchist assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir presumptive to the throne of the Austro-Hungarian empire, in 1914. World War I ended Pax Britannica and the Great Depression followed.

Pax Americana arose from World War II, leading to the greatest period of peace and economic development in world history. The U.S. helped create the current systems for currencies and trade because we were the wealthiest and most powerful nation in the world with many allies.

President Donald Trump is putting Pax Americana at risk. Every time he threatens an ally with economic or military punishment, every time he throws out a trade deal, every time he makes a threat he cannot carry out, he makes other nations question the wisdom of allying with us.

The Romans would warn us that the barbarians are at the gate.

By re-imposing sanctions on Iran, Trump angered our allies and gave Iranian leaders no reason to trust the United States to respect any agreement. By killing Qassem Soleimani —an enormously popular general in Iran —Trump has unified the Shia Muslim world against the United States.

The Iraqi parliament’s Shia majority has voted to kick U.S troops out. Our enemies are lining up to take our place.

Iranian officials are more than happy to send more troops to protect Iraq from ISIS. They just wrapped up four days of naval drills in the Gulf of Oman with China and Russia, two repressive regimes committed to ending Pax Americana.

Minutes after reading the riot act to the U.S. ambassador, Iraq’s prime minister welcomed into his office the Chinese ambassador, who condemned the U.S. airstrike. The Washington Post reports that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu spoke with the Iranian armed forces chief of staff, Mohammad Bagheri, about next steps.

Russian President Vladimir Putin invited German Chancellor Angela Merkel to Moscow to discuss how to convince Trump to back down, then he flew to Syria. The European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has urged both Iran and the United States to return to the nuclear deal.

Meanwhile, the Taliban are gaining ground in Afghanistan, North Korea is threatening renewed weapons tests, and a Somali militia has killed three Americans and wounded two more in Kenya. Our enemies see opportunity in the chaos.

Trump’s reckless actions on international trade, global institutions and the Middle East are alienating the nations that allowed Pax Americana to prevail. He is permiting Russia and China to expand their influence and undermine a system they consider a check on their ambitions.

Under Trump, the economy has grown thanks to irresponsible tax cuts, generous central bankers, and massive stock buybacks. But those tricks won’t override geopolitical instability that breeds uncertainty and discourages business people from investing, hiring or expanding.

To spur economic growth, Trump must lead the world, not fight it. We need open markets, predictable policies and a preponderance of peace, which can only come from strong alliances. The current confrontation has implications far beyond Iran.

Chris Tomlinson has written commentary on business, energy and economics for the Houston Chronicle since 2014. Before joining the Chronicle, he spent 20 years with The Associated Press reporting on politics, conflicts and economics from more than 30 countries in Africa, the Middle East and Europe. He’s also the author of the New York Times bestseller Tomlinson Hill, and he produced the award-winning documentary film by the same name. Both examine the history and consequences of race, politics and economics in Texas.