MOSCOW, June 9 (RIA Novosti)

09.06.2009

Pyongyang engages in dangerous but calculated game /
Belarusian officials say there have not been bans on milk
exports to Russia / Court bailiffs to auction off Telenor's
Vimpelcom stock / Government must help people with more than
just money

Vremya Novostei

Pyongyang engages in dangerous but calculated game

The current unheard-of worsening of the situation on the
Korean Peninsula is not happening by chance. North Korea is
pursuing a thought-out strategy decided on at the end of 2008.
Pyongyang seems to have concluded that six years of talks have
failed to allow it to implement its strategic priorities.

In 2005, when all parties agreed on a formula of "peace
and aid for nuclear renunciation," the North Korea leaders
hoped for U.S. recognition, firm security guarantees, peace
with South Korea, and economic aid. Instead, in exchange for
real steps to wind up nuclear programs, including the
decommissioning of the nuclear reactor, North Korea was fed up
with promises, and its authorities came to the conclusion that
the West's true purpose was to change the regime.

North Korea is playing a dangerous but calculated game and
is unlikely to let the situation get out of hand. It is
prepared to exist as a "besieged fortress" as long as it can.
It is also braced for sanctions - their seriousness will
determine Pyongyang's response, up to and including suspension
of UN membership.

After upping the ante and "taming" newcomers in
Washington, Pyongyang will evidently "agree mercifully" to
talks. But its bargaining position will be more aggressive than
before. North Korea will not renounce its status as a nuclear
power. The issue of abandoning nuclear weapons there is
currently off the agenda. The most that can be expected is the
curtailment of its nuclear and perhaps rocket programs provided
Pyongyang gets fair compensation. It is not economic aid,
although construction of a nuclear power plant is sure to be
one of the terms. North Korea will demand real, verifiable and
irreversible steps from the U.S. to guarantee North Korea's
security.

Pyongyang's tension-building will sooner or later force
Washington to seek a compromise. But a two-way agreement will
be short-lived unless reinforced by international guarantees
obtained in six-way negotiations, creating a new system of
peace and security on the Korean Peninsula.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta

Belarusian officials say there have not been bans on milk
exports to Russia

While the mass media dazzle with experts' comments on a
ban on the export of Belarusian dairy products to Russia,
official Minsk prefers to pretend that nothing has happened.

According to Valentina Kachan, the chief sanitary
inspector of Belarus, companies that planned to export dairy
products to Russia had been issued the necessary permits.

"The 500 types of dairy products mentioned [in the press]
are hardly ever exported to Russia," she said.

Leonid Zaiko, head of Belarusian analytical center
Strategiya, said nobody wants to be the bearer of bad news.

"Only degenerates and Mr. Kudrin speak badly about the
Belarusian economy," he said, referring to Russian Finance
Minister Alexei Kudrin, who was criticized by President
Alexander Lukashenko for recently doubting the country's
economic sustainability.

Zaiko said there was nevertheless a serious problem, since
"all 118 regions in Belarus have dairy plants, which make
direct payments to farms that represent 30% of the country's
population."

"Forced cuts in production have dramatically affected
their financial situation," he said.

The analyst noted that over 80% of Belarusian dairy
exports go to Russia, earning the country $1 billion last year.

Zaiko said it was completely logical for Russians to
strive to protect their market, especially since Belarus
increased milk and dairy exports to Russia by 37% in January
and February 2009 compared to 22% last year.

"This looks like expansionism," he said, adding that milk
production was more profitable than oil refining, which
explains why Russia does not want to allow Belarus to seize its
dairy market.

"According to my calculations, one liter of milk can earn
as much as $1 in Russia, while one liter of gasoline brings
only 70 cents," Zaiko said.

Kommersant, Gazeta.ru

Court bailiffs to auction off Telenor's Vimpelcom stock

Russia's Federal Bailiff Service (FSSP) said on Monday it
had prepared documents to auction off a 26.6% stake in Russian
mobile firm VimpelCom held by Norway's telecommunications giant
Telenor.

The stake was seized under a court order in March as part
of a long-running dispute between Telenor and Russia's Alfa
Group, the two main shareholders in VimpelCom, over the
operator's move into the Ukrainian market. Each party has filed
several lawsuits in the past few years.

Following the latest lawsuit filed by Farimex, which is
registered in the British Virgin Islands and holds 0.002% of
VimpelCom's stock, Russia's Eighth Arbitration Appeals Court in
late February ordered Telenor to pay $1.73 billion to VimpelCom.

On June 3, the Moscow Arbitration Court turned down a
Telenor request on suspending case proceedings pending a
court-of-appeals verdict.

Natalia Selivanova, head of the FSSP press service,
declined to say whether the service had hired a broker to sell
the VimpelCom stake.

On Wednesday, the Tyumen-based West Siberian Appeals Court
is to examine a Telenor appeal regarding the $1.73 billion
payment. Lawyers said case proceedings would be terminated if
the appeals court verdict were overruled, and that the
Norwegian company could contact the Supreme Arbitration Court
if it lost the case.

"The Supreme Arbitration Court is the only option left for
Telenor," Lidings Law Firm partner Andrei Zelenin said. "The
main hope is the Supreme Arbitration Court in Moscow," Telenor
Russia spokeswoman Anna Ivanova-Galitsina said.

Court bailiffs will be able to auction off the 26.6% stake
pending a trial. It takes the Supreme Arbitration Court
Presidium three to four months to examine any specific case
after receiving the appeal, said Maxim Kulkov, a partner with
the Russian international law firm, Goltsblat BLP.

Telenor could sue Russia if the FSSP auctions off the
disputed VimpelCom stake. Under the 1998 Russian-Norwegian
inter-governmental agreement on mutual investment protection,
any foreign investor has the right to contact the Arbitration
Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce (SCC), after
sustaining losses.

Vladimir Khvalei, a partner with Baker & McKenzie, an
international law firm, said it would be difficult to prove
that Telenor did not get a fair trial in Russia.

Vedomosti

Government must help people with more than just money

Most Russians are prepared to study. According to a poll
conducted by SuperJob.ru, 35% of respondents were willing to
learn a new profession or trade, and 29% would appreciate
learning a related profession.

The Russian government has drafted an impressive
employment program, with 23.3 billion rubles ($750 million) to
be allocated for fighting and preventing unemployment. The
regions are to contribute another 2 billion rubles to the
program.

However, the government should give more than just money
in this situation. When it approved the unemployment relief
program, it stipulated the appropriation of 43.7 billion rubles
($1.4 billion), but cuts in financing are not necessarily bad.
What matters is the efficiency of spending money.

A recent report by the Regional Development Ministry shows
that the bulk of allocations (19.6 billion rubles, or nearly
80%) will be spent on public works that should embrace 1.1
million people. Indeed, assuming that spending on their
organization will be minimal, each participant will receive
approximately 17,900 rubles, or a little bit more than the
country's average wage.

The government also plans to issue 2.65 billion rubles
($85 million, or 55,000 rubles per person) to 48,200 jobless to
start their own businesses, and another 771 million rubles ($25
million, 50,000 rubles per person) to relocate 15,442 jobless
to their new places of employment.

And lastly, under the government's advanced training
programs, 2 billion rubles ($64.35 million) will be issued for
training more than 200,000 people, or as much as 10,000 rubles
per capita, which is enough to attend a basic accounting course.

This is all very good, but in today's situation it is
necessary to talk not just about numbers. The government could
allocate smaller sums if it guaranteed that people could start
their businesses fearlessly.

If the conditions of work were changed for small companies
and the economy in general, and the law-enforcement agencies
were told to reduce their money-collecting activity, the people
would immediately feel these positive changes and find their
own way to take out loans or learn new professions - but only
on the condition that their efforts will not be in vain.