The Top 51-60 Returning Big Ten Players

Draftageddon 2017: The Gang Gets In an Argument About Justin Jackson

This is Part V. We are drafting Big Ten players to give you an overview of the guys and dudes around the conference. You come out of it with a four-deep preseason All-Big Ten. We come out of it with very strong opinions on Justin Jackson.

For our fifth Ohio State d-lineman let's try a nose, and at this point which one should be obvious. Landers racked up 7.5 TFLs (tied with Dre'Mont Jones) in his redshirt freshman campaign, and was at +10 on 243 snaps as of The Game preview PFF sent. Unlike Jones, who Wally Pipped the 3-tech job when Tracy Sprinkle was injured in Game 1, Landers had to scrap for equal snaps with standard plugger Michael Hill.

It only took a few games into the season for Ohio State fans to pick the low man in that battle, and after the PSU game PFF had joined them:

Bosa led the Buckeyes with seven pressures, but it is perhaps Landers who is pressing the strongest claim to jump into the starting lineup. Starting defensive tackles Dre’Mont Jones and Michael Hill struggled for the second straight week (longer still for Hill by himself), as Penn State gained 8.2 yards per carry between the tackles, with Jones and Hill frequently backed up into the second level when they faced double teams. After giving up 137 yards between the tackles to Wisconsin last week, the alarm bells are ringing loud and clear in the Ohio State run defense right now, and Landers has been performing well enough to justify a spot in the starting lineup.

Short in stature, Landers uses that to his advantage for leverage and speed. Urban Meyer calls him "twitched-up." Draft Analyst calls him a 2nd or 3rd rounder. I call him the last shot at a surefire disruptive NT.

[Note: this pick was made before we knew Hill would be suspended indefinitely. Not that it matters because Landers is better.]

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Seth: From that last link:

One offensive prospect I’m not impressed with is Jamarco Jones. Rated by some as the number two offensive tackle prospect from the senior class, Jones is short, marginally athletic and won’t get drafted then will have to play guard at the next level.

Please be so.

[After THE JUMP: Time-traveling 2015 guy can’t fathom why the entire Indiana secondary is gone before anyone from the Michigan State defense.]

Crawford, the free safety, broke up seven passes and picked off three more while doing everything from patrolling center field (check out the break he gets on the ball in the clip above) to playing man coverage in the slot. He’s an ideal complement to Marcus Allen, who’s at his best charging into the box.

Mahon has been Penn State’s best lineman for the last two years, and he’s done it while plugging whatever hole they needed filling—he’s lined up at left guard and both tackle spots in his 29 career starts. After a transition period in Joe Moorhead’s new offense, Mahon rounded into form and earned first-team all-conference from PFF despite a late-season injury:

Mahon’s season started off slow, but like much of the rest of the Penn State line he improved significantly after the loss to Michigan. Over the next five weeks no one in the country graded anywhere near his level, as he gave up just three total pressures and posted the highest run grade in the country. Unfortunately he missed the final three games of the season with an undisclosed injury, but his dominant play before getting hurt was more than enough to warrant making the team.

It's a testament to the conference's and Ohio State's defensive end depth that a guy who played ~400 snaps, was all-Big Ten, earned a +16 PFF grade, had 8.5 TFLs, and turned down the NFL draft is still around this late.

As the highlights show, they'll move him around anywhere from 3-tech (his usual job in the rushmen package) to his natural weakside end position, but he's more Taco than Wormley: NFL scouts like his length and strength, projecting him a 3rd or 4th round pick. In a non-insane year this is the best DE in the league.

This is Athlon’s All-Big Ten defensive line. And I’m not convinced the Buckeyes’ best D-lineman isn’t Jalyn Holmes pic.twitter.com/tivTMC9N0r

I mean if you're going to leave him on the board all damn day I'll add that thunder to Wadley's lightning. Scott's been BPA for about four rounds now, rushed for 5.4 YPC last year on Michigan State's offense, and brought it against both Michigan and Ohio State last year.

Scott was basically the only reason MSU scored against OSU with a 61 yard run and 64 yard catch for touchdowns, and afterwards NFL.com Bucky Brooks was all about it:

Scott showed outstanding strength, power and body control running between the tackles on an assortment of power runs from the I-formation. In addition, he displayed soft hands and solid receiving skills as a playmaker in the passing game. He rumbled 64 yards for a score on a dump-off pass, exhibiting surprising speed, quickness and burst for a big man. Considering how rare it is to find a big back with natural running and receiving skills, I'm sure several scouts will compare the sophomore to former Spartan Le'Veon Bell.

He's a 230 pound brick with ballerina feet and is also fast. I mean:

I don't need fancy numbers here, just look at the guy. If you really really want numbers, 186 total yards against M last year, 236 against OSU, PFF ratings above 80 in each game. He's at his best against the best and won't last past day two in the draft next year despite being a tailback. Round 14. GTFO.

FWIW, Mark Dantonio told reporters that Scott was held out of spring practice because he was recovering from post season surgery and had not been "red locked" like everyone else on the team. He's in a contract year and isn't Malik McDowell so I have no doubt he'll put the pedal to the metal.

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Ace: I’m confused. MSU isn’t in the B1G West. You’re not allowed to do this, man.

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BiSB: ROUND 14, PICK 4: DJ Moore, WR (Maryland)

Maryland’s passing offense is just screens to Moore and Moore blocking on screens. [Fuller]

Moore quietly had a solid year last year. At least I think it was quiet. He did it for Maryland, so who actually watched to see. Maybe he was doing it with his hair on fire while screaming “I AM BEING GOOD AT WIDE RECEIVING” at the top of his lungs. The only time I noticed Michigan fans probably noticed him was when he was running unchecked through Michigan’s secondary on that one bizarre end-of-half play.

Either way, he finished with 637 yards and 6 TDs at 15.5 yards per catch. He also carried the ball 11 times and was a really solid kick returner (22.3 yards per return). He shows good body control and elusiveness after the catch. With basically every other Maryland receiver (including 11th year senior Levern Jacobs) gone, Moore will be the primary target for Maryland. And while Maryland is gonna have some quarterback… uh… uncertainty, most of Moore’s production was on short routes and screens like the one above which, given Maryland’s surprisingly competent run game, should still be there.

When a true freshman offensive lineman shows up in June and starts most of the season, best-case scenario is “don’t die.” Bredeson is emphatically alive. So that’s good.

Bredeson struggled last year, but a lot of his issues were mental; assignment, identification, generally knowing where to go, etc. This is to be expected from a true freshman. Physically, though, he was as advertised for the #41 player in the country. When he wasn’t facing Malik McDowell or Florida State’s monsters, he handledhimself quite well. He seems to have the footwork, strength, and agility to project out to one hell of a football player.

The only uncertainty with Bredeson’s path is whether, and how quickly, he can pick up the mental stuff, as well as where his best fit is on the line.

In hindsight, I probably could have just said “go read the Mason Cole stuff from two years ago” and saved some time.

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Brian: ROUND 15, PICK 2: Kekoa Crawford, WR, Michigan

[Fuller and I swear I’m not using just one photographer on purpose today]

Round 15 seems like a good time to start off the random shots in the dark that will comprise large chunks of the rest of the draft. (see also: Ben Bredeson) With Moore off the board your top-producing returning Big Ten WR is Jawuan Harris of Rutgers. Behind him are a couple Penn State guys whose careers are going the wrong direction, a Purdue TE, and kinda-maybe guys leading the line for some deeply questionable passing offenses.

So. Kekoa Crawford. Crawford had his apprentice year behind two NFL-draft bound receivers and now slides into the starting lineup. He is going to start. He is exceedingly likely to be Michigan's #1 WR unless they get a black swan freshman. Michigan has Jim Harbaugh and Pep Hamilton and one of two returning QBs who was any good as a passer last year. Crawford is going to get targeted, especially if he can keep doing this:

Also if he keeps clubberating opposition safeties. Harbaugh's going to get him 80 targets this year just because he loves the way he blocks.

There are (somewhat) more established guys out there but I'd rather gamble on a big season from a good passing offense's #1 than try to pick out which PSU WR is going to be Gesicki's sidekick or whether someone will emerge from the depths.

In a conference sick with linebackers it's quite irrational to take one that hasn't started yet. If you are surprised at this, then welcome new reader, and please help yourself to any of the exquisite Khaleke Hudson tags above.

Here's why I think you guys are gonna be as upset as James Franklin about passing on this guy:

And I know it's declasse to use high school highlights in Draftageddon but DUDE. That was just the Semper Fi game. Go watch the senior highlights. Then visit the junior ones. Now look how many days of August are left before Michigan football (tragically it's most of them).

VIPER Khaleke Hudson. The hype here isn't going to slow one bit after today. Hudson was everywhere on defense, looking like the heavy-hitting player we expected against the run and proving equally formidable in coverage, where he broke up a couple passes and nearly came up with an interception. As is his wont, he came inches away from a blocked punt, too.

He is what they asked Peppers to be: a safety-sized dude who can line up like a 1970s strong safety and still fly up to set the edge of the running game. Plus the other hybrids in the league all have caveats: always injured, just moved from safety, got moved to the Mike, sucks in coverage, contractually bound to play for MSU. Also none of them play for Don Brown.

I gave Adam a bunch of crap for picking Jackson last year because I thought he was just a guy who got what his offensive line gave him and only produced big numbers because he got a high volume of carries. Last year Northwestern had a crappy offensive line (68th in adjusted line yards, 115th in stuff rate), one that wasn’t helped by facing defenses loading the box to slow Jackson. Jackson earned his 1524 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Northwestern RB Justin Jackson leads all returning running backs this year in yards after contact.

That wasn’t a product of volume; Jackson rushed for 3.6 YAC/carry, a hair better than the 3.3 posted by Saquon Barkley. As QB Clayton Thorson got competent late in the year, Jackson’s efficiency took off, and he ended the season with a monster 224-yard game against Pitt. Northwestern should start all seniors and juniors on the offensive line, including top returner Tommy Doles, so hopefully Jackson will get some more room to run. When he gets a crack, he’s a dangerous open-field runner, and his shiftiness makes up for a lack of overwhelming power. His durability is a proven asset, too; in a conference with a lot of platoons, Jackson is Northwestern’s unquestioned workhorse.

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Adam:

BiSB: I mean, Justin Jackson is... fine. There are at least three remaining backs I would prefer, but he's fine, and he's been productive. This isn't "Mitch Leidner is a first round talent" over-hyping. It's more "Emmitt > Barry."

One thing to be concerned about: Jackson has registered 933 touches over the last three seasons. That's a LOT. That's way more than LeVeon Bell or Derrick Henry had in their entire careers. It's above Mike Hart's per-season rate by more than 40 touches. Another season like last season would put him at 1266, which would be only 81 touches short of the all-time NCAA record. That's a lot of wear and tear.

Ace: I’d be concerned drafting him as an NFL team. He’s definitely got a lot of miles. The effects of that usually show up farther down the road than college, though.

Seth: My concern with JJ is he was his same average self last year until Northwestern went to an all-Austin Carr offense. Via Bill C they ran on just 51% of standard downs, 110th in the country. He points out Jackson had 4.1 YPC in their first five games running into stacked boxes, then 4.8 and 6.3 in the next and next-next five as the passing game took prominence. Now remove Austin Carr again...

Brian: Justin Jackson is a guy. He's not a dude.

Ace: I’m not necessarily arguing here but (1) that Pitt tape and (2) we all said that about Jordan Howard after watching his UAB tape and boy howdy were we wrong. Sometimes you have to trust production when it becomes this consistent, and he’s done it in a tough environment.

I honestly didn’t expect to draft Jackson for what should be obvious reasons but after watching video of him, Weber, and the Minnesota/Maryland duos, I liked him the most as a runner.

Seth: I concede the Pitt tape. Not the long run at the beginning. That thing he did to the Pitt safety. What was that? It was like "Here's a bunch of knees—nope you can't have them!"

Brian: "The Gang Gets In An Argument About Justin Jackson" was this season's most obvious episode

Ace: Indeed. Semi-related fun fact: according to pro-football-reference, Northwestern’s last OL to go in the draft was Zach Strief in 2006. That was the year I graduated high school.

Seth: Northwestern bashing isn't as fun as Rutgers bashing because they're self-aware. Also they should have beaten Brady Hoke like 4 times.

Sure it's a little biased, but if you told me the vast majority of the talent in the conference was from UM, OSU, PSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin, would that shock you? Maybe Iowa is an outlier a bit, but it's not like you can look at MSU and see a bunch of top talent.

I love this feature, so not complaining too much here. But I guees the question becomes is this "drafting a fantasy team" or "drafting who you think the best players are"? Because even if every B1G QB sucks besides Speight and Peters, you shouldn't draft Peters if this is a fantasy draft.

I love this feature, so not complaining too much here. But I guees the question becomes is this "drafting a fantasy team" or "drafting who you think the best players are"? Because even if every B1G QB sucks besides Speight and Peters, you shouldn't draft Peters if this is a fantasy draft.

Also, I think y'all are looking at Justin Jackson unfairly. If he were wearing a Michigan jersey putting up those numbers with that workload, he'd be getting praise on the level of A-Train and Mike Hart. C'mon man! Show JJ some love.

Iowa has the best offensive line in the conference because Ferentz is the best offensive line coach in the conference, and they will squander it playing ultra-conservative Ferentz ball. Also the sun will be yellow and rise in the east.

Here is an inconvenient fact...that Dantoni seems to know and secure better RBs than we do. Bell and Scott are monsters. And when recruiting Scott one could see he'd be another Bell. Our rbs are ok, but I prefer Dantoni rbs. For an elite program we have underperformed at RB the past few decades. Hopefully Harbaugh changes this

Seriously nobody doubts how good LJ Scott is. But nobody wanted to bet that he is going to use up any more of a finite number of carries in his career running behind this OL in a season with nothing to play for. He is an interesting contrast with Justin Jackson who will presumably do more with his Northwestern degree than whatever he can provide for the team that drafts him