Mandryk: Leadership cruise may turn into a rather wild ride

With yesterday’s announcement that Justice Minister Gord Wyant is now in the Saskatchewan Party leadership race and with fourth leadership hopeful Ken Cheveldayoff about to confirm Saskatchewan’s worst-kept secret Monday, the Sask. Party’s leader ship is very close to setting sail.

So far it’s a four-person cruise, with Wyant and Cheveldayoff joining already-declared candidates Tina Beaudry-Mellor and Jeremy Harrison. But even if there are not a couple more, don’t expect this leadership race to be the pleasant, cosy, tropical cruise Premier Brad Wall envisioned when he launched it by resigning.

Health Minister Jim Reiter surprised many this week by announcing he would not be in the race. The absence of him and Energy/Economy Minister Dustin Duncan is a loss.

One big prohibitor is that $25,000 entry fee — the same as the federal Conservative race and nearly six times the required $4,000 for the concurrent Saskatchewan NDP race.

Federal Conservative MP Brad Trost may love seeing his named dropped as a serious candidate to become Saskatchewan’s next premier, but he still hasn’t got his deposit back from the federal Conservative leadership race and would likely have to forego his MP pay to run. He is out.

Finance Minister Kevin Doherty seems to be the candidate most people still see as on the fence. Friday’s release of the first quarter update of the 2017-18 budget should offer some indication which way he is leaning. The guess is that he is leaning towards running, but having blown the $300 million contingency fund (as per Friday’s first-quarter update) may not be the ideal launching point. It may depend on whether Doherty feels he has enough caucus support to reach a broad spectrum of Sask. Part voters.

Also in play for Doherty is whether Alanna Koch, Premier Brad Wall’s deputy minister, is in. Koch remains the most intriguing prospect — especially given her potential to plug former Grant Devine executive assistants who are still running the province through executive council, or back-roomers in the Sask. Party who have never strayed far from Brad Wall’s ear. Given her appearances at recent Sask. Party golf tournament fundraisers (bad form for the province’s most senior bureaucrat) she still has to be seen as a distinct possibility.

Then there is not-so-delicate matter of who wants to engage in what may be a surprisingly nasty affair and how nasty they may be.

Wyant’s launch teaser with a guy getting on a motorcycle was slick enough to be Netflix’s promo for a reboot of Marvel Comic’s Ghost Rider. Many rightly found the clever work of Harris Greenway Communications (as in Teri Harris, former key Wall advisor) endearing, but others saw it as slick and pretentious — criticism that seemed more directed at the candidate than the ad itself.

Even before the entry of Cheveldayoff — who will be a serious contender because of his broad contacts across the province and sizeable war chest — there has been grumblings about candidates no longer using money raised through constituency associations. This would give Cheveldayoff an advantage because of past fund raising.

Moments after Doherty released his first-quarter update, pretty much suggesting his government doesn’t yet have a handle of 2017-18 debt, Beaudry-Mellor issued a press release stating “it is important for government to develop a long-term financial plan that accounts for critical multi-year investments, fluctuations in revenue, and basic, day-to-day necessities, the same way taxpayers do.” Harmless maybe, but it did seem a rather passive aggressive shot over Doherty’s bow.

Harrison launched the heaviest broadside, by calling Thursday for greater transparency and accountability rules for governing MLAs and saying he likely would have fired Bill Boyd. But of particular pertinence in Harrison’ 10-point disclosure plan is the intention to require candidates to reveal interests in numbered companies. This would effect Doherty, Cheveldayoff and especially Wyant, who has sizeable assets.

Pleasant leadership cruise? Such contests seldom are. And while it might not be immediately apparent, expect Sask. Party leadership race to be a bumpier ride than most thought it would.

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