2009 July - The Leading Edge

Oslo, Norway: A meeting of climate scientists, government officials and dignitaries involved in work of climate assessment and policy met to discuss COP15, the meeting coming up in Copenhagen. They illustrate in the meeting that even if there is an agreement, it will still result ultimately in a likely temperature increased of 4.5C (8.1F).

Earliest potential for ice free Arctic.

The Government of Norway posted a panel discussion on YouTube in July, 2009 from a meeting that occurred in April.

A NASA model shows the potential for an ice free Arctic as early as 2013. Though this is not expected, it is possible. Current ice-free Arctic projections fall in a range of 2013-2030. Many variables exist in the deterioration of the Arctic ice and recent evidence leans toward the 2013 date rather than further out toward the 2030 date. It is important to remember this is a non linear process. Global warming does not happen in straight lines. The result of losing the summer ice will increase Arctic Amplification and is expected to increase the rate at which global warming occurs.

Robert Corell

Robert (Bob) Corell (who led the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment,
ACIA) spoke on projections pertaining to the positions being
considered for COP15. Corell, and other scientists had reviewed the proposals by governments around the world in order to ascertain the resulting increase in CO2 based on the proposals, if agreed upon at COP15. The results were revealing in that even if the COP15 was successful, the CO2 increase would still reach 700ppm and result in a warming of 4.5C (8.1F), as indicated by the models.

This amount of increase is expected to severely impact latitudinal shift and produce extraordinary changes in human capacity to produce food. When on considers existing infrastructure weighed against rising demand and decreasing capacity, one begins to understand the dilemma.

These changes directly impact global security and reduce economic capacity. Conversely, in order to cope with the problem we must endeavor to maintain economic capacity while directing action efficiently and effectively toward mitigation and adaptation. It becomes increasingly clear that an 'every nation for itself'
paradigm will result in a global disaster of extraordinary proportion
when compared to the relative luxury of the 20th century. The degree of global coordination and cooperation is intrinsically tied to the fate of our immediate and near future in this unfolding century.