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Romney is the only one with a sophisticated ground game in Alabama and Mississippi. | AP Photo

Few expect any of the House Republicans in either state to actually lose, but that they’re facing primaries at all speaks to the mind-set of conservative activists picking the GOP presidential favorite.

“There’s such whiplash to Obama that nobody can be too conservative,” said John Ross, a former Alabama GOP executive director. “While some people believe that Romney is going to be the nominee, they also see an opportunity to send a message nationally that we want to go as conservative as we can go. And hes’ still perceived by folks in Alabama as the more moderate of the three.”

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Ross, who worked at the state party for the 2010 crimson tidal wave, said “the momentum from 2010 is carrying forward in this race.”

Matthew McDonald, a Mobile lawyer and veteran Republican strategist, noted that among conservatives there are “a lot of doubts about Romney’s core. “They’re not willing to beat Obama with just anybody. The hate Obama, but they also hate the idea of electing a squishy Republican.”

But Hubbard, the House speaker, said that was changing in the campaign’s final days and that voters were now, as the old saying goes, looking not to send a message but rather to send them a president.

“I think people are turning toward Romney because they really feel like he is our best chance to win in November,” said Hubbard, recalling a University of South Alabama alumni event he attended in Mobile where individuals were approaching him to say they were growing weary of the party’s in-fighting. “I’ve had people say, ‘What in the world are we doing? We’re going to screw it up in November.’ ”

It’s places such as Mobile where Romney will have to perform strongly if he is to pull out a victory Tuesday. His formula in both states is remarkably similar: run well along the less socially conservative Gulf Coast, clean up in the largest city and its heavily GOP suburbs (Birmingham and Jefferson County in Alabama, Jackson and Hinds, Madison and Rankin counties in Mississippi) and pull votes out of the educated population hubs in the northern part of the state (Huntsville in Alabama and DeSoto County, just south of Memphis, in Mississippi).

Old Mississippi hands note that GOP primaries in their state can be won by candidates who win only a handful of counties, provided they’re in vote-rich areas, and point to Sen. Thad Cochran’s initial primary in 1978.

“It’s going to be very difficult for us to win the state on Tuesday,” said Reeves, lowering expectations. “But I feel a lot better about our chances than I did two or three weeks ago.”

Bryant acknowledged that they were “on the edge” and had an “outside chance at winning.”

But the caution establishment figures are taking in trying to balance in nudging voters toward Romney without pushing them was on display in his remarks at the Foxworthy event.

“We have a chance to make history,” the governor said, noting that he believes Romney is going to be the nominee and the next president.

But, he quickly added, “I’m not telling you what to do, I’m telling you what I’m gonna do.”

Mitt Romney has a shot to win both states - polls show him leading or effectively tied in each. But even if the former Massachusetts governor doesn’t take them outright, the apparent resurgence of Newt Gingrich in the Deep South has once again muddled the primary-within-a-primary so that Rick Santorum is going to be denied his wish to get a clean shot at the front-runner.

Let's play the "Expectations" game.

First off Mitt Romney wasn't even suppose to be close in either contest today in Alabama, and Mississippi, so let's establish that fact.

Alabama is to Gingrich as New Hampshire was to Mitt, it's next to Gingrich's home state of Georgia so a defeat by Gingrich would be devastating.

If Mitt Romney can win one of these Southern states then this 2012 Republican primary is over and the pressure for both Gingrich and Santorum to drop out will be great, Charles Krauthammer said this last night.

Romney/Rubio.....................time for Real leadership and Real results........................"no more talk"

Jonathan Martin. What are you doing up so early in the morning? Trying to play at creating momentum with Mitt 720 delegates away from the nomination? Mitt can't get enough delegates before the convention unless someone drops out. And you suggest reasons for Newt and Rick to stay in the race. With 1500 delegates remaining how, explain please, does Mitt get 720 in a couple of Southern states? This a a tongue-in-cheek article, isn't it? A quircky headline on the continuing muddle.

lol.................this is from a tolerant Liberal/progressive............lol

Poor Obamie he's pretty much done. Even the attempts by Obamie's dirty dishonest MSM Super Wolf Pacs to shield him from high gas prices won't work. But boy its funny to watch them try.................their pro-Obama Brown-shirts are really showing now.

Where are the winner take all states? When are Republican voters going to put Mitt consistently across the 50% line? Now is the time for blackmail and bribery. So send in the snoops, Politico, to keep track of those hidden phone calls and dirty tricks. Where is Breitbart when you need a rumor about Gingrich being offered a position on Bain Capital? And Ron Paul finding it his patriotic duty to accept the promise of becoming a Federal Reserve Board Governor? That secret meeting at a Jekyll Island country club - just like 1912?