To be confused about the measles epidemic in Wales?

I've started seeing some comments on news articles about the epidemic, that there are nowhere near as many actual confirmed cases of measles as were originally reported; many lab samples have returned a negative result for measles, and that the poor man who died from measles had an inconclusive post mortem, and apparently didn't have measles after all.I don't doubt measles can have serious complications and is very unpleasant, before anyone thinks I don't understand that.Has anyone on mn been affected by this current outbreak that can give us an idea what the situation is for them? If many of these people who originally were thought to have measles turned out not to, then what did they have?There is clearly an outbreak of something, but it doesn't seem to be just measles.

But that is my point. Presumably the doctors are sending off samples from people with suspected measles, so suffering with measles-like symptoms. Of the 850 samples that were sent off, only 370 of them were confirmed as measles. The rest had something else. What did the rest have?

It is true that Wales includes both lab confirmed and doctor diagnosed cases in the figures (England is lab confirmed only). It is wrong to assume that the difference between lab confirmed and total figure means the others were negative - many have simply not been tested at all.

This method of counting is not new for this outbreak, nor does it make a measles outbreak any less dangerous.

The doctors are more likely to send a sample for "suspect" cases ie to rule it out so yes low figures for that would be expected. My understanding of the man who died is that they are not certain if measles contributed to his death not whether he had them.

The man who died did have a confirmed case of measles - the postmortum hasn't yet been able to say if this was the cause of his death.There have been cases in dds school, and many cases at the local comp.

I don't think it's a huge conspiracy, I'm just confused as to why more people in the epidemic have got an illness with measles-like symptoms, than have actually got measles, and yet that isn't a concern to anyone?If the level of confirmed measles in the lab samples is proportionate to the dr diagnosed cases, they have a lot of people infected with something, but not measles. Surely that is worth some investigation?

No. If a patient hasn't been tested, then it doesn't mean that they haven't got the doctor diagnosed disease. And if it looks like measles and it's happening in a patient in an area with an known outbreak, then chances are it's measles.

I have been unable to locate a figure of 'not measles' amongst those that have been tested. So there is no evidence on which to make an assumption that many cases were not measles. And until there is, it will have to remain speculation.

But what is clear is that there has been the largest outbreak for some years. That is in itself a concern, irrespective of precise number of cases.

They would have had some kind of viral rash and a mother who watches the news! Dd is always getting viral rashes.

Two weeks ago she got the proper scary non-blanching pin prick bruises one so despite being incredibly healthy was admitted to hospital. We still don't know what caused it but as the paediatrician put it 5 hours after admission (whilst watching her happily ride a tricycle at full speed around the playroom) "the one thing we do know is that it isn't meningitis or septacemia - by now she'd be in intensive care if it was".

In the whole of 2011 there were only 19 cases of measles across Wales, so 27 new cases in Swansea over the past week alone is still very serious.

Furthermore, whilst numbers are dropping in Swansea they are rising elsewhere in Wales (32 last week).

The BBC are reporting that the pace of the epidemic has meant that numbers have had to be based on GP diagnosis rather than lab confirmation, and that 30% of those diagnosed by their GP may actually have had a different type of rash.

OP - my DC get a rash almost every time they get a cold, I really don't think that there is anything worrying or sinister going on.

I have taken dd to the doctor about some rash or other 6 or 7 times in her life. Plus there have been loads more rashes I was happy were nothing. She is just 3 so probably a rash every 3 months. Plus the eczema which is there all the time. She has never been really ill.

Some kids get lots and lots of rashes. Some don't so their parents think a rash is more serious than it generally is. Dd is practically never sick so I tend to worry if she is. If you have a "sicky" child then the odd vomit doesn't worry you at all.

No, not worried, because they have not said how many cases have been referred to labs.

Can anyone link figures showing how many cases were referred to labs, and how many of those were found not to be measles?

Not being tested is not the same as not having measles, and unless we know the number of tests found not to show measles, there is no way to know the accuracy or otherwise of doctor diagnoses or the headline figures.