Why is it that the 3 MSNBC shows I caught a few minutes of tonight only mentioned the Quinnipiac poll showing her winning with a lesser margin, going with the meme that Obama is closing the gap big-time? None of the shows even mentioned the Survey USA poll.

From Survey USA: [more]

In a Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania today, 04/08/08, two weeks to the vote, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 56% to 38%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WHP-TV Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre. The results are almost identical to a SurveyUSA poll released one month ago. Then, Clinton led by 19. Today, 18. In between, however, in a SurveyUSA tracking poll released last week, Obama had closed to within 12 points. What happened in the past 7 days?

1st: Some of the men who flirted with Obama at the end of March have returned to Clinton. Other men have moved to the sidelines. Last week, Obama led by 7 among men. Men were 46% of likely voters. Today, Clinton leads among men. Men are 42% of likely voters.

2nd: Obama lost ground among voters age 35 to 49. A week ago, he had caught Clinton in this age group. Today, he's down 18. By contrast, there is no movement among voters age 50+. Clinton's lead among voters 50+ is stable across all 3 tracking polls.

3rd: In Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia and which makes up 42% of likely Democratic voters, Clinton had a good week, Obama a bad week. Clinton is above 50% for the first time and Obama is now down by 9 in a region he must win to carry the state. In Southwest PA, which includes Pittsburgh, Clinton polls at 60% for the first time, 25 points atop Obama. Only in West Central PA, which includes Johnstown, has there been consistent movement toward Obama.

4th: Among moderates, Obama lost key ground while Clinton gained ground. Clinton now leads by 24 points, 60% to 36%. Obama also lost ground among Liberals. And while Obama's support fell among Conservatives, so did Clinton's.

5th: Interviewing for SurveyUSA's 04/01/08 release, one week ago, occurred in the middle of Obama's 6-day bus tour through Pennsylvania, which began on 03/28/08. Obama may have benefited a week ago from the media spotlight.

Summary: The complete absence of movement among whites and among women is striking. Among white voters, Clinton polled at 61% in all 3 tracking polls. Among women, Clinton was at 62% a month ago, 62% last week, and 61% today. These two unwavering core constituencies help make Clinton so formidable in the Keystone state.

As expectations go, it's better for Hillary that the big boys not talk too many polls showing her doing really well. If she pulls a 15 point victory--not far from what I expect--she'll make them all eat crow. Not so much if they're expecting it.

even the worst polls for her show a tight race. I think she probably is better off if expectations are lower. The SUSA poll sets the bar pretty high, and it may well be an outlier. However, none of that excuses the failure of the MSN to properly cover the issue.

I have not watched tv news. I watched today for the Petraus hearings and heard the exact same poll being reported, no mention of the poll BTD was talking about. Man, did it annoy me. Needles to say, off they went again.

I don't think it's because they think SUSA is an outlier. They've been pushing the "When Obama arrives in your state, the polls narrow" meme since before February, so they're only going to show the polls that back them up. There is anecdotal evidence that the meme may be true, but there is a lot of evidence that it's bunk, too, and that is especially true in the large states.

The results in CA, MA, OH (remember how Clinton was going to lose there, and big?) etc. have done nothing to dissuade them; in fact, I remember that they didn't mention SUSA's OH polls, either, and then they were shocked, shocked! that Clinton won by 10 points.

They pull the same crap with Gallup's daily tracking poll, actually; when it shows a spike for Obama, they talk about it all day long; when the poll goes back to a dead heat, they barely mention it.

They have a narrative, and the facts they tell are used to back it up.

this poll is consider an outlier, however, don't forget that only the suffolk university poll had Clinton winning in New Hempshire, and that too was dismissed as an outlier. This may actually be good for the senator.

.. for authoritative commentary on opinion polls and polling in general. They track all the major polls, and their analysis is always professional, insightful, and (imo) untainted by any bias. These days I find myself checking their site almost daily to see what's really going on with the polls.

i spent the last 2 weekends in the suburbs of Philly canvassing for Hillary. i covered over 400 houses (100+ per day) and made a few hundred phone calls when my feet hurt too much to go door-to-door.

i'd say that the SUSA poll pretty much confirms what i'm hearing and seeing. i'd just add that about 10 pct of people still seem to be undecided (and those are the ones that i like to find so that i can explain why i'm supporting Hillary.)

roughly, in my (limited) experience with several hundred voters (in 3 different suburbs), i'd say that i found 60 pct for Hillary, 30 pct for Obama, and 10 pct undecided.

i'm not suggesting that Hillary has a 30 pt lead, because i understand that the city is a different story.

to see this report from on the ground. I did some phone banking this past weekend and I got many more undecideds than I expected.

And Hillary supporters, make no mistake, the "race is over" narrative is having an impact on voters. I spoke to one elderly woman who was solidly for Hillary but figured since she had no chance of winning, what was the point? I spoke to another man who felt strongly that Hillary would make a better president, but he felt like the race just needed to end because he was afraid McCain was gaining too much ground and since she can't win anyways, he should just vote for Barack...

Also, I think that while voters tend to run to her side when the media bashes her, there are also voters who feel really bad when they watch it and they almost just want her out of the race so they can stop feeling guilty when they watch it...I have a friend like this who almost wishes she would just drop out because he doesn't know if he can sit through an entire general election, 4 years of her presidency, or even 8 years of her presidency watching the media bash her day in and day out. It makes him feel bad and ugly, though he is not directly responsible, and people want to avoid that feeling...

I did an hour and a half of calls last night and was surprised by the numbers of undecideds. We need to stay on the phones and knock on the doors for Hillary if we want PA to be a good primary for her. One day at a time.

that MSNBC would choose to focus on a poll that shows Hillary losing ground?

I seem to remember a few months ago when a Mason-Dixon poll that was co-sponsored by MSNBC was ignored because it had Hillary in a statistical lead; they touted a different poll that had Obama within the margin of error.

Several of the comments posted to the Survey USA blog say it's an outlier, but SUSA does seem to paint a reasonable story as to why this happened. I especially think that Obama's 6-day PA bus tour may have temporarily moved the needle. If Clinton wins by 18 and wins or keeps it close elsewhere, she's still on her plan to win this. I still hope and think that Obama will be our nominee, but it does seem that time is on her side. And if she can pull this out, she'll have unbelievable momentum going into November (if the party doesn't self-destruct under Howard Dean's "leadership").

is sticking with the polls that show Hillary and Barack in a dead heat. No mention of SUSA. My opinion, based on their biased coverage (including the loathsome Jack Cafferty still harping on the discredited Hillary "lie" about the hospital story) is that it drives their narrative. Barack is "likable". When people "get to know him", his support increases. That's the story they're pushing, IMO. If voters in PA, NC and other states that have not yet voted in the primaries keep hearing that Obama is closing in on her lead, it may discourage them from going to the polls.

The SurveyUSA poll from a week ago showed a split of 83-17, which is more like the actual results from other states. If today's SurveyUSA's poll is to believed, Obama's support in the African American community dropped 9 points last week.

... that commenters in that discussion dismiss the idea that "Obama's lead is slipping" as spin promoted by the Clinton campaign, while at the same time they do not recognize that the idea that "Clinton's campaign is as good as over" is just spin promoted by the Obama campaign.

... I don't think that data point is worth a hill of beans, frankly. I am not saying that Chuck is necessarily an unreliable reporter, in fact he seems to be one of the better ones, as talking heads go. But just ask yourself:

(1) What are Chuck's personal biases?
(2) Who, within each campaign, actually has the full picture of what they are seeing?
(3) Who did Chuck actually talk to in "both campaigns"?
(4) What was their motivation when they answered his question?

If -- after you have carefully considered all the possible answers to those four questions -- you still believe that Chuck Todd's comment is more reliable than the results of the SUSA poll, then you are certainly a very trusting person, at least where Chuck Todd is concerned. But not necessarily a wise one, IMO.

Unless Todd actually saw numbers, there's little reason to believe that either camp gave him accurate info. Obama's people need to make it look like he's closing the gap so they can push the idea that she should just get out. Clinton's people want to lower expectations so the media doesn't say that a 15 point win is a "disappointment."

divided black vote than in any previous state: several prominent black leaders in Philadelphia have endorsed and actively campaigned for Hillary. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the potential in this. There are also public figures like Ed Rendell, who took the black vote in huge margins during his run for Governor.

Why a woman can say I want a woman for a president, just not this woman, and no one will fault her for saying it? But if an african american says I want an african american as a president, just not this one, what do you think will be the result?

Similarly, you can't really average polls together as the networks like to do. Different polling houses sample in different ways; you have to be careful to look for trends only within the same polling house.

In other words, it's more important to look at "motion" within one house rather than house-to-house variation.

There's a discussion of the seemingly discordant Pennsylvania polls at Pollster.com

Are you surprise that MSNBC is trying to demoralize Clinton supporters, are you surprise that Jack the idiot is still stuck on bashing Clinton, are you surprise that the daily KOs is only showing polls that favor Obama. Well I'm not, these guys have been bashing Clinton from day one. Nothing that is happening now surprises me. The only thing that will surprise me now will be if pundits and commentors actually start reporting the news without bashing Clinton. Maybe I am aiming to high.

I have done a little checking and it looks (if you go back through the polls of past States right before the day) that the USA Survey has been the closest to the actual end result then most any of the other polls.

It's hard to say about PA because I bet it's difficult to get a good grip on the actual number outside of guessing she is ahead at least a little percentage.

Remember Mr. Rendell won the Governorship against Casey there with just a few densely populated counties in Philly and Pittsburgh. It's also hard to say what effect Casey has had on giving Obama a bump in the race. In any case, Hillary has to give a lot of thanks to Mr. Rendell... he has been really working hard to deliver the State for her... I've seen him on talk show after talk show and he's really impressive no matter what questions get thrown at him.

I also think that some of the major polling companies are not being totally honest at how they arrive at their numbers. It's very easy to weight a poll with certain demographic numbers.

In any case, Hillary needs to keep the pressure on with a string of visits across the State leading up to the Primary. She needs to carry the State with, at least, a 10+ point margin to give her any major momentum going forward...

I say heard because I was in the den on my PC and did not see it. But, she talks about her childhood spending time in the house on Lake Winola (near Scranton)and having a outdoor shower. She talks of the family warmness and the love for Pinochle. People in Penna understand the fun of playing cards and Pinochle was a family card game. It was a warm fuzzy type.

He also thought an ad w/ Mayor Nutter was ruined by Nutter opening with something like "I know you're wondering why I'm sticking with Hillary." Tried to say Nutter was insulting black voters by implying they were all for Obama.

Well, in interviews Nutter has said that he gets asked all the time by some of his black constituents why he isn't backing Obama.

Dan? Get a grip!

Obama vastly outspending Clinton in PA. I say she should use some of the money to make inroads in Indiana.

It was personal. Like she was sitting in our LR and talking to the neighborhood and was one of us. BHO was in front of a steel plant and unless you are in Pittsburgh, it makes a connection but it does not make a personal connection. Talking about summers on the lake & playing cards with the family brings back a lot of wonderful memories to people in the area. Talking about creating jobs and standing in front of a steel plant is not the good time feeling we are looking for.

we say here in PA, she is going to kick his a** up one side of the street and down the other.

These pols and pundits that are calling her to withdraw are totally out of it. Or else they know he is going to limp into the convention badly bruised after PA, W Va, Ky, Indiana, and Puerto Rico deliver strong showings for her.

Here in PA we have a closed primary. Last month I gave 5 Republicans voter registration forms so they could register as Democrats. They do not like McCain and Obama, but they really like Hillary and want to vote for her.

More bad news for Obama - they will vote for McCain in the fall however.

This convinces me that she can deliver PA for the Democrats but he cannot.

Same here. I have 4 Republican friends who changed to vote for Hillary in the primary and the GE. And I have more who did not change but want her for the GE. And this is a state where people do not do that for a one time fluke just to skew up the votes. They take their voting seriously, speaking for NE PA and most of the state. They are not caught up in a frenzy and their minds are made up already. When talking to people, one of the first things they note is how the media is beating up so much on Hillary. So I would love a nice trounce to BHO just to show what the media is doing for her. I think it can happen but a win is a win.

Olberman, being on MSNBC ala the Obama Network means that you can say any cockamamie thing you want to say and no one will ever call you on it. So long as they praise the "one" and chastise the "fem" they'll do just fine with their demographic.

I first paid attention when Zogby had Obama winning California by double digits the day before. SUSA had Clinton winning by about 10. She did ultimately win there by about that much.

So, that was similar to PA's situation. SUSA has been said to be the most accurate during these primaries. I just really doubt that ALL the other polls are off while just SUSA is right, though. So, I go with those who guess between 7-15.

Quinnipiac had one out a day or so earlier? At any rate, Wall Street Journal highlighted the portion showing a couple of days ago that Clinton was leading McCain in 3 of 4 big states, whereas Obama was losing to him.

The oddest report was Rasmussen's when he was 50-41 the other day over Clinton -- BUT they also reported that about 56% of Clinton supporters said it was possible they'd not vote for Obama in Nov.
Rasmussen said that was a troubling number. I guess so.

...actually has a pretty good feel for PA, based on their previous polling of state contests there.
In addition to Q and Ras showing it as a 5-6 point race, Strategic Vision has it at 5 points today, and of course as mentioned before, Chuck Todd is saying both campaigns' internal polling has it at single digits.
I think there will be more polls out tomorrow--if they all show tightening or stability, SUSA will look more like an outlier.
Next week we'll have debates, and of course if there's any negative story thrown at either candidate it may move the needle a bit.

what the polls say, they are all over the place. Look at New Hampshire. The media basically reports on the polls that over time have the most credibility. There was very little to no coverage of the poll that had Obama up by 2 points. But does it really matter, all that counts is when the voters vote. I think the expectation game is in the past now, HRC has to win and win big to make any meaningful delegate pickups. If she wins by 0-10 points it isn't good, but if she wins by the 15-18 point margin this poll suggests then there's hope. No need to get to riled over the meaningless polls.