Ioke

ExpandCollapse

Nimbostratus

WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 01C WARNING NR 39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 291200Z AUG TO 031200Z SEP 2006.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
390 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. STY 01C IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. STY 01C
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
COAMPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, EGRR, TCLAPS, AND WBAR
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMICS AID.
C. STY 01C IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36
AND THEN WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A PARTIAL 290718Z QUIKSCAT
PASS AND A 290807Z SSMI PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
E. AFTER TAU 72, STY 01C WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND.
THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE MID-LATITUDE WAVE TRAIN ACROSS KOREA AND
JAPAN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, AND THUS THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK FOR STY 01C.
THE INTENSITY OF STY 01C IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 IN AN
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

ExpandCollapse

Cumulonimbus

" Whole island evacuated as super typhoon makes final approach by Sean Batty Earlier in the week we said that ex hurricane Ioke, which is now a super typhoon could be heading towards the tiny Mid-Pacific island of Wake. We expect the storm to smash into Wake later this afternoon.

The island is home to a U.S Air Force base, which has around 200 personnel based at it. U.S authorities evacuated the entire island of people on Monday afternoon and flying them to the safe haven of Hawaii.

The decision was taken after forecast from the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) showed that the storms eye would cross directly over the island.

It will also bring a surge of water up to 30ft (9.1 metres) in height which could submerge many parts of the 2.5 square mile island, where the highest point is around 18ft, bringing devastation to the island.

According to a NWS forecaster, Ioke is currently ranked the fifth-strongest storm ever seen in the Central Pacific, and is the first Category 5 storm in the region since 1994.
The typhoon is one of the longest-sustained storms in world history, having stayed at Category 4 for a week. Current winds in this monster are whipping round at a steady speed of 155mph, while gusts have been reported in excess of an astonishing 190mph.

The island saw another devastating typhoon nearly 40 years ago. "Sarah" roared through with winds just as strong. National Weather Service accounts say torrential rains battered the island. Buildings were ripped apart.

The water went right across Wake Island and, for a short time, it was submerged.

Those brought to safety aren't sure what will be left when Ioke's gone but grateful to be far from the path of the typhoon."