N.J. Assembly Republicans promise aggressive challenge to Democrats in November

By Matt Friedman, NJ Advance Media

TRENTON — With the primaries over and the general election season upon us, state Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick has a big challenge.

Bramnick (R-Union) wants to be Assembly speaker. That means in November — when all 80 Assembly seats at the top of the ballot — he’ll need to flip at least nine Democratic-held seats to win Republicans a majority in the lower house for the first time since Democrats took over in 2002.

He’ll have to do that in what’s expected to be a low-turnout election in a state with 700,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. With a legislative district map that was drawn by Democrats, and with a Republican governor who will likely be mounting a GOP presidential primary bid and whose New Jersey approval rating — at least right now — is in the 30s. Not to mention Democrats’ two-to-one fundraising advantage.

But Bramnick says he’s up to the challenge.

“I’m going to be very, very aggressive as to the failures of the Democratic Legislature,” he said. “I’m going need a little help from (the media) pointing out that they’ve been in charge for 13 years. That’s the only request I make.”

According to Bramnick, if he can reach voters with his message, he should be able to win.

“The public opinion poll of the Legislature, which is run by Democrast, is low,” he said. “They surely haven’t controlled spending. They surely haven’t reduced taxes. They’ve made us one of the most expensive places to live in the country. How do you not give the Republicans an opportunity for two years to show that they could do better?”

And Bramnick says he’s not shying away from making as much use as he can of Christie, who on Monday night headlined a $5,000 per head fundraiser for the Republican Assembly PAC at Bramnick’s Westfield home.

“He stands for affordability. He stands for letting people keep their own money and limited government,” Bramnick said. “And I think most people in New Jersey know it’s too expensive to live here, the taxes are too high, and the only reason the Democrats haven’t increased taxes is he’s got a veto pen, and we’ve defended the governor and he’s got no overrides.”

While Christie will likely be busy, Bramnick said that “he’s agreed, wherever I need him, he’s there.”

Political prognosticators, however, don’t see much chance of an upset. The vast majority of legislative districts in the state are safe for one party or the other.

“Most political observers are expecting the Democrats to retain control, largely because the map of the 40 legislative districts favors the Democrats,” said Rider University political science professor Ben Dworkin. “However — and this is important; we’ve seen moments when the legislative map is not as important. Issues arise. Leaders emerge who can galvanize voters.”

But, Dworkin added, “It doesn’t appear that there’s any issue.”

There are expected to be three particularly competitive races for six Assembly seats — four currently held by Democrats and two by Republicans.

In District 1 — which includes parts of Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland Counties — Assemblyman Bob Andrzejczak (D-Cape May) is running with Democrat Bruce Land against Assemblyman Sam Fiocchi (R-Cumberland) and Republican Cumberland County Freeholder Jim Sauro.

In District 2 in Atlantic County, Assemblyman Vincent Mazzeo (D-Atlantic) is running with Democratic Freeholder Colin Bell against Assemblyman Chris Brown (R-Atlantic) and Republican Freeholder Will Pauls.

A couple more districts, such as south Jersey’s District 7 and central Jersey’s Districts 11, 14 and 18 could potentially be competitive as well.

Michael Muller, who runs the Democratic Assembly reelection effort, said he’s optimistic that Democrats will not just retain their majority, but build on it.

“It’s a little bit like Groundhog Day,” Muller said, referring to Republicans’ strategies for winning back the Legislature. “In 2003, it was vote no to the Jim McGreevey Democrats. In 2007, it was vote no to the Corzine Democrats. In 2011 it was ‘let’s give Chris Christie a Republican legislature.’ It seems like Jon Bramnick is going back to an old story and hasn’t learned the lesson that these elections are determined by residents who choose local representatives.”

Despite Christie’s unpopularity, Muller said these elections turn on local issues, especially in such a low turnout year.

In 2013, when Christie was on the ballot and won a landslide reelection victory and all 120 seats in the Assembly and Senate were up as well, Republicans didn’t gain a single seat.

“I don’t think the governor plays a large role. They put the governor on network TV in 2011 to try to be the great closer in these races,” he said. “The truth of the matter is these are going to be electorate with what we would call higher information. They’re voters who participate in virtually every election. You can’t throw a fast ball by them.”

But, Muller added, “if they want to run with Chris Christie, we welcome it.”