Glass half full and playoff math

With an odd week off for Canes hockey until Friday and me being a bit behind on writing after trying reasonably successfully to pull in the last of the “Midterms” articles, my tentative plan is to save the Monday Coffee Shop post until Tuesday.

Today’s Daily Cup of Joe is two parts. The first part will make a legitimate case (in my opinion anyway) for the glass being half full for the Carolina Hurricanes right now despite it not feeling that way after three straight losses. The second part is not horrible but is a little less sunny since it takes an honest look at the current playoff outlook. You pick what you want for Canes content today. 🙂

Disclaimer

Before I break into the argument for ‘glass half full’, I think it is importantly to make it clear that I am not saying that everything is rosy right now. The three-game losing streak is poorly-timed, a waste of the end of the busy home stretch and extra damaging because the losses came to Metropolitan Division opponents. Burning through nearly all of the busy home stretch with a 5-4-2 record is also not good.

But it’s still half full

But per a conversation that I had on Twitter shortly after Sunday’s loss, success for the 2017-18 season is nearly 100 percent about making or not making the playoffs.

As of right now, the Carolina Hurricanes are tied for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Let me say that again…As of right now, the Carolina Hurricanes are currently tied for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference after 60 games.

Put aside whatever feelings you have about the current losing trend and any reservations you have because of the team’s inconsistency or whatever else for a second. Had I told you in early October that the Hurricanes would be tied for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference after 60 games, would you have taken that? Or would you rather have rolled the dice hoping for better? I would optimistically have hoped for slightly (not significantly) better, but I would have taken that over the risk of instead being worse off by risking it.

And sure, the current trend is not incredibly positive, but if nothing else, the 2017-18 season (#CanesCoaster!!!!!!!!) has very clearly showed that the fortunes for the Hurricanes can and will change instantly over and over.

If I net out where the Canes are right now, they are still looking for the one reasonably extended hot streak that pushes them over the hump and into the playoffs.

The other thing that the Hurricanes playoff hopes have going for them is the fact that the other teams competing for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot have actually been struggling just as much as the Hurricanes of late. As of right now, it is a three team race between the Hurricanes, Islanders and Blue Jackets. In their past 10 games, the Hurricanes are now 4-4-2 which does not stand out as impressive. The Islanders are 4-5-1 in their past 10 games, and the Blue Jackets are even worse at 2-6-2. Believe it or not, the Hurricanes are playing at least as well as the teams that it must beat for a playoff spot despite their struggles.

No doubt, the Hurricanes need to right the ship and find a higher gear if they are to make the NHL playoffs. But the current feeling that it is impossible is not even close to accurate.

Updated playoff math

For those who just need hope that good things are still possible heading into the four-day layoff, this is where you get off. What follows is not horribly negative, but it does offer a dose of reality that has been impacted by the team’s recent struggles.

When I looked at the Eastern Conference playoff race exactly one week ago, I broke the chase into three categories. I had the Washington Capitals in their own tier in the playoffs, and a second tier of the Pittsburgh Penguins, Philadelphia Flyers and New Jersey Devils as “Trying to Join the Capitals.” The Penguins have sprinted ahead and both the Flyers and Devils are now up six points on the Hurricanes with a game in hand. Things can change still with a quarter of the season left, but for the sake of analysis right now simplest is to consider those three teams playoff teams and to focus on the final playoff spot.

Previously, I had the remaining four Metropolitan Division teams lumped into a third category. One positive development is that the New York Rangers have continued to sputter and are now five points back and going the wrong direction with only two wins in their last 10 games. By no means are the Rangers so far back that they are eliminated, but simplest given the current standings is to consider the last wild card slot to be a three-team race between the Hurricanes, Islanders and Blue Jackets. As noted above, both of the other teams are struggling about as much as the Canes if you look at the past 10 games.

More detailed math might tilt the numbers slightly and I could make a case for one team being slightly better than the other two, but at the end of the day, one of these teams must get hot and push ahead. With none of them playing well, giving each an equal chance seems as reasonable as any other math. So that suggests that the Hurricanes chances of making the playoffs right now are about 33 percent. I actually think that is about right. I believe the Hurricanes’ chance of being the team that figures it out and pulls ahead is as good as the Islanders’ or Blue Jackets’ chances.

In an article just before the home stretch that started on January 30, I wrote an article entitled, “Five ‘ifs’ for a Carolina Hurricanes playoff berth.” The second ‘if’ was “If the Carolina Hurricanes can find one bigger (5 games or more) winning streak.” That is not the only way, but with 22 games left, I think that will very likely be a key ingredient for whichever of the three teams do ultimately win the final playoff spot for the Eastern Conference.

What say you Caniacs?

1) Honest answer, had you in early October been offered the opportunity to fast forward to game #60 and have the Hurricanes tied for the final playoff spot, would you have taken it?

2) Using simple math, I pegged the playoff chances at 33 percent likely as an even three-team race between the Hurricanes, Blue Jackets and Islanders. Would go with higher, lower or the same?

Go Canes!

13 Comments

powerless
on February 19, 2018 at 8:36 am

I just read Larry Fishers column on “the Hockeywriters”.He is predicting 40 trades that might happen between now and the deadline. The title is, “NHL Trade Deadline Predictions: 40 Potential Deals “. It is a very interesting article.Trades number 15 and 16 involve the Canes and Montreal and Canes and Ottawa respectively. In these two deals, we get all our needs met. Wow! He really thought things through. It would cost us, but I think it would be worth it.

With Francis not sharing a ton of information and the team being a non-playoff hockey team from a small market with minimal local in-depth coverage, this is where I think the broader hockey media usually gets things wrong.

Francis has not said it yet, but I strongly believe Martin Necas is more or less untouchable. He is not there yet, but he projects to be exactly the dynamic offensive center that the team needs, and based on his WJC play, he is now making top 10 (in entire NHL) prospect lists. Couple that with Francis’ commitment to building from within, and he is pretty much untouchable.

I think any other prospect is available for the right deal, but I think seeing if a writer just includes Necas like another interchangeable prospect is a good screen for the next week to see if he/she really has a good understanding of the Canes situation or if he/she just felt the need to come up with interesting trade stuff for each and every team.

We get Alex Galchenyuk and Andrew Shaw from Montreal in return for Josh Jooris, Nicholas Roy, Julien Gauthier, and our 2018 first round pick (lottery protected or deferred until 2019). We get Mike Hoffman and Johnny Oduya from Ottawa. They get Marcus Kruger, Martin Necas, and Jake Bean.

I would not do either of those trades. He has us giving up too much in both imo. I would not trade Bean or Necas. I would not take Shaw as a return, he can’t help us because he’s out for 6 weeks. I wouldn’t give up that much for a return of Hoffman and Oduya period. Oduya is 36 years old and his contract expires at the end of the season and Hoffman by himself is not worth Bean and Necas. IMO. I would rather try to trade Faulk and/or Rask and I would take our past first round draft picks off the board completely. Throw in prospects like Saarela/Zykov/McKeown over Necas/Gauthier/Bean.

Completely agree. I think Necas and Bean should be off the table period unless you’re talking a John Tavares level return; and even then I wouldn’t want to give up Necas.

Personally I’m not too high on Galchenyuk; sure he has potential but he’s currently sitting at 12g/22a/34p for the season and a -27. Aho, Turbo, Skinner, Staal, and Lindholm all have better numbers at significantly better +/-s; Skinner being the closest at -15. Shaw has been out with a lower body injury and is still questionable on when he will return; that doesn’t help our win-now mentality. My only interest from Montreal would be Patches.

I won’t even touch on the second trade as its ridiculousness has already been discussed…

I like live_free_or_die’s suggestion lower down in doing a shake up of our core. Figure out what true hockey trades we have available using everyone but Aho, TT, Slavin, Pesce, and Hanifin; I might consider adding Staal to this list too.

1/ I would have 100% taken it. As painful as it is to watch us flounder opportunities this season, we are right there in the hunt in late-Feb and are more likely moderate buyers than definite sellers at the deadline. We still haven’t had the extended run of very good hockey, though you can almost feel us buzzing right now; these last few games have been generally good hockey except the puck just hasn’t gone in. I feel like out best hockey is still to come.

2/ I think it’s a little higher but directionally correct. We have a 1/3 chance when the field is us, CBJ, and NYI, but I’d add in a few extra percentage points to factor in a PHI stumble given their goaltending situation. I’m very impressed with NJD, especially Taylor Hall and Hischier, and think they’re in; PHI isn’t out of the woods yet.

1. Yeah, as much as the current trend is painful to watch, still having a reasonable payoff shot in late February is as good as we could have hoped for. If a roster update can be made between now and the Pit game to pad those odds a bit we can’t complain (well, ew an always complain, that’s life).
2. 33% is pretty accurate.

I’d take the first deal (with Mon), but would not trade Nichas for Hoffman, Johnny is getting old.

Too much of the same. The team needed this last stretch to make some noise, and they barely achieved mediocre hockey. Had it not been for other teams struggles, we’d be well back. The net result is good for us, but is it really? We just lost to all our divisional opponents in this last stretch.

We don’t need to go irrational or trade everyone, but we need to shake up the core by trading someone. If I were GMRF, the only players off limits should be Aho, Turbo, Slavin, Pesce, Hanifin, Necas and Bean. Everyone else should be on the table for discussion to get a sense of what pure hockey trades look like. Depending on the offers, take the best one and make one move to shake up the core.

1. Honest answer is that I would have taken it. Also honest is to say not like this. This season was the perfect scenario we would have all hoped for at the beginning of the season with the Metro division coming back to the field. Under that scenario and our expectations for an improved Canes team, we would have all thought we would be sitting 3rd in the Metro right now. The fact that we aren’t is disturbing and suggests something major needs to change. I see no sustainable improvement in the Canes game. Same dominant SOG advantage and inability to score. Same need for the goalie to be perfect for us to have a chance. Been watching the same thing for 9 years.

2. I think our odds are lower. We just finished the most favorable part of the schedule and didnt take advantage. Gets much harder from hear playing better teams, who are amping up the intensity, and not as favorable home/away split.

1. I’d take it. At least if we haven’t had a 5+ game win streak to push us up in the playoffs, we haven’t had a 0for October, or a 14 game losing streak that kills all hope early.
2. 25% We have the tools, but we score 7 in a game and they torpedo that lineup to go back to non scoring(and give the hot scoring call up under 5 minutes in a game).