Fantasy Mailbag

The Stanton Waiting Game

Question: I was just offered Stanton, Quintana for Seager, Ozuna. How long for Stanton?

Answer: The length of time Stanton is out should not matter in this deal. The upside in it is worth the risk in waiting out Stanton’s return.

Question: It seems like in our league people are hoarding pitching, lots of hitters on the wire. I jumped at Webster the other day and dropped Bartolo. Bad move. I like having Bart as a two-start streamer and he got snagged up immediately. So that was the fantasy disappointment from yesterday.

My question: In this style of league, I like to get around 6-8 starts per week from my SPs. For this next period, I have A.J. Burnett for two starts, Yu Darvish for one, CC Sabathia for what should be two, and each of these pitchers gets one start: Edwin Jackson, Jorge de la Rosa, Jeremy Hellickson, Dan Straily, and Francisco Liriano. Not sure which one to give that start to. So I'm looking at 6 to 7 starts if I use 5 SPs... but what about if I get six starts from 4 SPs and used Rafael Soriano and Rafael Betancourt at the same time. Both have 7 games next week... What makes more sense? And why does it make more sense?

Answer: Regarding the first part of your question, unless the pitchers are all even or close, I tend to go with the ability of the pitcher over the matchup unless the matchup is extremely good or bad. I would go with Samardzjia over all of those pitchers easily based on ability. The possible exception is Hellickson, but he has struggled of late, and his matchup next week against the Red Sox isn't a good one.

For part two, it's generally better to go with a starting pitcher over a relief pitcher in head-to-head or points leagues. However, a solid closer can be better than a middle-of-the-road starting pitcher. I think I'd use Shark over Betancourt next week if it doesn't impact your start limit.

Question: What is your take on Didi Gregorius? He has to fall back to earth, right? I'm in a 5x5 (OBP), 14-team mixed league. I have Stephen Drew, and he is finally starting to show a pulse. ROS Gregorius or Drew?

Answer: Drew, if he stays healthy, but that’s the biggest “if” in the world.

Question: I need to pick up a starter with Halladay on the DL. My pitching is excellent except for ERA, thanks to Halladay and Dickey. Looking for a starter to lower my ERA. Tommy Milone, Jaime Garcia, Patrick Corbin, and Kyle Lohse are on the waiver wire (shallow league). We have a 1400-inning limit, so I wouldn't start this guy every time. Garcia, Corbin, and Milone have great home split advantages. Who do you think I should snag, considering I'm dropping an irrelevant middle reliever whom I don't have room to start?

Question: Maybe this is a bad question because it is too general, bt what type of SP should I be targeting if I am looking to trade Starling Marte for a SP? 5x5 10-team league with OBP instead of BA. I need ERA/WHIP help bad.

Answer: Aim high, since Marte is playing at his peak level. Try Price, and work your way down from there. A 6.24 ERA and velo concerns might scare someone enough, and his worst baseball is behind him.

Question: 10-team mixed keeper league. I have Kemp in the final year as a keeper and need catching help. I can trade Kemp, Hosmer, and Niese for Gomez, Mauer and Dickey. Gomez would be a first-year keeper (up to 5 years) 14-round pick.

Answer: That's not a bad deal at all. I believe a decent bit in Gomez, and Mauer is a beast, so he'll help your C issues. I say go for it.

Question: Standard 12-team H2H league, been offered Adrian Beltre for Matt Kemp. My 3B is Pedro Alvarez. Is this selling low on Kemp or good value, as he doesn't look like he's driving the ball, and his one homer was barely a homer.

Answer: It might selling a touch low on Kemp, but I loved Beltre coming into the season, and I haven't really changed that.

Question: Was hoping you can help me make a decision I have been going back and forth on. I am in a 12-team Y! H2H 23-roster league. Pitching is always scarce, as everyone uses limited bench spots on offense to compete in the counting pitching categories. I have been holding Teheran since draft day and don't know whether I should jump ship, and if I do, if it should be for Gyorko or Hector Santiago.

Teheran would go into this pool of talent (or lack thereof). Best available SPs are Feldman, Volquez, Hefner, Corriea, Ubaldo, Pettibone, Phelps. Ihate sending you guys my full team but think it may add some context.

Answer: I like Pettibone a bit. Wrote him up for the annual. He's far from a stud, but he's a workhorse who will give ya quality IP.

Question: At what point in the season do you start to make trades or changes in your roster? One month in, two months, etc.?

I have several DL players and others off to slower starts that has me in the bottom half of the standings. In my head, I know my team can improve, but the results have not matched up. So, how long is too long to wait for these "corrections" on performance before you start to actively shop for players to improve?

Answer: We're now out of April, so it is OK to entertain moves to fix categories. Saves and home runs are the two I would focus on first, as the others are a bit easier to make up.

Question: In my 15-team roto keeper league, Colby Lewis is available on the waiver wire. I could probably pick him up for $3-5 (maybe less) in FAAB this week ($100 budget). The problem is, I have Greinke, Beachy, and Madsen already filling up 3 of my 4 bench spots. Should I drop Marco Estrada or Jarrod Parker (I know you said to give him time on the podcast) to pick up Lewis? We have an innings-pitched limit, so I can afford to have an injured player in my lineup and just catch up on innings later. A pitching staff of Greinke, Minor, Fister, Beachy, Lewis, and Estrada/Parker sounds pretty good for the second half of the season.

I have Adam Eaton ($2) on my minor-league bench. When he gets back, I will already need to cut either Michael Brantley or Chris Carter, so there really aren't any offensive players I can cut.

Answer: I like Lewis, but that seems like a lot of risk/spec that you're then counting on. I'd probably pass.

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One thought though: I'm not sure how helpful it is to know that, when looking to trade a guy for a pitcher, you should start with the ace that is/was putting up bad numbers and work your way down. Those obvious "buy low" guys seem more like exceptions. I think a more useful answer would be where to stop working your way down before you are losing value.

Now, that depends on league, team needs, etc., but it's a much more interesting answer, in my most humble opinion.

Relative to the first question, I play in a league in a similar league in which pitching is hoarded. It is a 12-team mixed league with seven starting pitchers. Last year, the top pitcher was worth 23 points/start, the top closer was worth 25 points/wk (we overvalue saves), the 120th best pitcher (Mike Fiers) was worth 15 points/start, and the 25th best closer (Aceves) was worth 16 points/wk. Even Ervin Santana or Ivan Nova or Josh Beckett were worth 12-13 points/start. In a two start week, these bastions of mediocre starting pitching were worth as much as the NL Cy Young winner in a one start week, on average. And a weak closer was better than a mediocre starter.

We hoard starting pitching to maximize two-start opportunities. If your league hoards starting pitching, maybe there are similar advantages.