Tuesday, November 05, 2013

Endgame: Abbas And The PLO Get Ready To Launch The Third Intifada

It appears the that farce of the so-called peace process is nearing its end. And as you'll see, this is exactly how Abbas and company planned it.

It started with an uptick in Palestinian violence directed against Israelis emanating from the Arab occupied areas of Judea and Samaria, and a corresponding decrease in security cooperation between the IDF and Abbas' security forces in the last several weeks.

At the same time, this was coordinated with a massive outpouring of calls from PLO officials to halt the peace talks and formulate what they called an “overall national strategic revolution”.

Meanwhile, Palestine's unelected dictator Mahmoud Abbas has been blatantly violating the conditions under which the peace negotiations were started. He's been making the rounds in Europe urging EU countries to enact sanctions against Israel and avoid conducting any economic, academic or cultural activity with Israel that might involve East Jerusalem or the Jewish communities in Judea or Samaria, referring to East Jerusalem as "the capitol of our state, Palestine."

In an ominous twist, Abbas called for EU countries to take legal action against their nationals whom have dual citizenship and live in these areas. London-based Al-Quds al-Arabi reported that the PA has demanded of a number of EU countries that the citizens they have currently living in “illegal” communities should be either pressured to leave or be stripped of their citizenship.

As a final move, Saeb Erekat, formerly the right fork of Yasser Arafat's tongue and now the chief Palestinian negotiator 'resigned' (and later retracted his 'resignation') presented Israeli negotiator Tzipi Livni with an ultimatum that is the PLO's final position. It pretty much lines up with what Mahmoud Abbas has always said, that no concessions at all will be made to Israel in any peace settlement.

There was an agreement between the Israelis and Palestinian negotiators to keep the negotiations quiet, but PLO sources have leaked the details, and there's really no surprise here.

The Palestinians are demanding over half of Jerusalem, including control of all of the major Jewish holy sites. They claim all of Judea and Samaria, although they've agreed to consider a land swap of no more than 1.9 percent with Israel in exchange for money and an equivalent amount of Israeli land.That 1.9 percent would essentially be meaningless since it isn't anywhere near the amount of land necessary to incorporate the majority of Jewish communities into Israel. Geographically, it would amount to a defenseless enclave surrounded on two sides by the Palestinians.

The PLO's demands further include the Hula Valley and the Valley of Elah, and the strategic Latrun area, the chokepoint that overlooks the road to Jerusalem and could isolate Jerusalem in the event of war. And They want all of these areas handed over to them judenrein, Jew free. They want full control of all the aquifers in the area, thus retaining the ability to threaten Israel's water supply. And they demand that Israel formally give up any claims under international law to the area by agreeing that these areas are 'occupied territory'.

They refuse, on the other hand, to recognize Israel as a Jewish state,paving the way for further demands later. And they insist not only that all of the convicted terrorists now in Israeli jails be freed, but that all Palestinian refugees be given the right to settle in what's left of Israel.

Six months after Israel creates 500,000 Jewish refugees, retreats to indefensible borders, allows what's left of the country to be swamped by genocidal 'refugees' and redivides Jerusalem, they will receive in exchange a piece of paper signed by an unelected 75-year-old dictator who doesn't even come close to controlling all the Palestinian factions - even his own Fatah.And someone who might very well be overthrown by Hamas if left to his own devices, which would make the agreement even more meaningless than it already is.

The reason Erekat and Shtayyeh 'resigned' according to the PLO is Israel announcing the building of a few homes in the already Jewish neighborhood of Ramat Shlomo in Jerusalem.As most Israelis would confirm, the Ramat Shlomo tenders have unfortunately been been floated before,in 2010 and in the summer of 2012, but not a single home has been built. The announcement was probably a political ploy by Israeli PM Netanyahu to satisfy his coalition, upset over the release of 26 Palestinians convicted of brutal murders in Israeli courts.

Abbas, needless to say, embraced them warmly, referring to them as "our heroic brothers".

The Palestinians are using the announcement of new construction in Ramat Sholmo as evidence of what they're calling Israel’s lack of commitment to the peace process. And they are using this as an excuse to threaten to exit the negotiations, which of course was designed to bring Secretary John Kerry running.

If this sounds somewhat familiar, it's because we've seen this movie before.

This is exactly what happened prior to Arafat's Second Intifada, which also occurred after the breakdown of peace talks but had been planned long before, as nine other than Arafat's former Minister of Information Yassir Rabbo admitted long afterwards. Then, it was General Ariel Sharon's visit to the Temple Mount(where he had a perfect right to be, by the way)that the PLO cited as the cause of hostilities and breaking off negotiations. This time, they're using the Israeli announcement of constructing some homes in Israel's capitol and in Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria as the supposed trigger for something that was planned long ago.

Abbas was Arafat's right hand man during the Second Intifada. Like his predecessor Arafat, Abbas intends to continue the drive to destroy Israel. And Abbas has one thing going for him Arafat lacked - an American president who embraces the Palestinian cause and has almost visceral disdain for Israel.

As some of you may know, I have a source of long standing with whom I have a sort of frenemy relationship with who works in the Palestinian Authority's infrastructure, so I had a tip from him that this was likely coming, and that it would happen shortly after the second batch of Palestinian terrorists was released by Israel. There was no problem as far as this person was concerned, since he or she sees it going off without a hitch mo matter what.

Abbas plans to proceed on several fronts. He will ramp up the violence in Judea and Samaria, publicly blame the Israelis for destroying the peace process and threaten to walk away from it. This has already brought U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry back to the region, where Abbas will demand further concessions from the Israelis when Kerry meets with him.

At the same time Abbas is going to attempt to consolidate his leadership over the divergent Palestinian factions. In this,he has the aid of the EU. The execrable Caroline Ashton, European Union foreign policy chief is working with Abbas to try and get the unity agreement he signed with the genocidal Hamas back in 2012 firmed up in the name of 'Palestinian unity'. And given the state of Hamas nowadays with the al-Sissi regime in Egypt shutting down the tunnels to Gaza and enforcing a strict blockade, they might just go along with it,figuring they can always depose the aging Abbas later.

Needless to say, no one in the Obama Administration has uttered a peep about Mahmoud Abbas dealing with an officially named terrorist group..not back in 2012 when Abbas and Hamas PM Ismail Haniyeh were paling around and not now.

From the standpoint of Mahmoud Abbas, this is a win-win. The ultimatum Erekat gave the Israelis is not a serious offer in the least,and it was never intended to be, since Abbas knows that no government in Israel could accept it. Like his predecessor Yasser Arafat, Abbas has no notion of peace. He intends to continue the drive to destroy Israel. And Abbas has one thing going for him Arafat lacked - an American president who embraces the Palestinian cause and has almost visceral disdain for Israel.

If Kerry - or rather, President Obama - is able to twist Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu's arm and gain further leverage for Abbas, all well and good. He'll pocket his gains, obtain additional prestige with the Palestinians at no cost to him whatsoever and reinforce his control over the situation.

If Netanyahu refuses, Abbas has his built in excuse for dropping negotiations, for which the Israelis can be conveniently blamed, the same way Arafat used Arik Sharon's trip to the Temple Mount. He can then ramp up intifada #3, make sure there are plenty of 'bleeders' to capture the world press, and use it as a springboard to go to the UN and have them unilaterally declare Palestinian statehood along the 'pre 67 lines...with President Obama's support.

Another idea my source said is being discussed in ramping up the intifada and then appealing to the Obama Administration to 'end the senseless violence' the Palestinians will have started and impose a settlement. Abbas can offer to go along with whatever the Americans decide - since he already knows in advance President Obama will give him pretty much whatever he wants, and only the 'unreasonable' Israelis will refuse, since they're the only ones losing anything.

I would love to know exactly what President Obama is threatening Israel with in order to get them to knuckle under, but it really doesn't matter. President Obama came into office saying he wanted to 'create daylight' between the U.S. and Israel, and that's what he intends regardless.

Any promises President Obama makes to PM Netanyahu are pretty much worthless and always have been. So there's not much of an upside in Israel continuing to cooperate in their own destruction.Whatever President Obama is threatening them with, he's going to do eventually anyway. It's simply who he is and who he's always been.

What Israel does have is the classic recourse in dealing with blackmail.

There's an old story about the Hollywood actor Errol Flynn, who was approached by a blackmailer who had photos of him enjoying himself in a hotel room with a famous actress. When he was shown the photos, Flynn's response was an enthusiastic 'Gee, these are great! Can you get me copies?' The blackmailer left in disgust without receiving a dime.

Blackmail only works as long as the blackmailer has the power of secrecy.Remove the secrecy and the blackmailer becomes powerless.

Instead of keeping things quiet and making noises about 'strategic considerations' Netanyahu needs to remember that most of the American people support Israel, and so does most of Congress, especially with midterms coming up.

If nothing else, Netanyahu still retains the ability to talk a good game most of the time. Israel publicizing exactly what the Palestinians are doing and giving clear reasons for Israel curtailing the talks would not endear them to the president or people like Tom Friedman over at the New York Times, but then nothing Israel does short of national suicide is going to do that. But making a clear case to the American people and congress would at least partially neutralize the ability of President Obama to carry out whatever threats he's been using.

Barack Obama doesn't have to run for election again, but a number of members of his party do, and the last thing most of them want right now is more baggage to deal with, especially given the debacle of ObamaCare. A presidential diktat freezing arms sales or pushing anti-Israel measures in the UN would definitely do that.

In any event, there's not much choice. Israel has been walking a tightrope with President Obama and playing for time, and it was never going to work. In fact, their efforts to accommodate him have only made things worse.

Now is the time Israel to openly chart a new course and rely on its friends and allies here in America to counteract the animus from the White House. By doing so, Israel actually stands a better chance of winning then by simply waiting for the ax to fall.

And ironically, an Israeli rejection at this point might actually send a message to Abbas that if he really wants peace, it's available...but not solely on his terms. He might even feel the need to make a few concessions to Israel in order to obtain it.