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Bharat Dynamics IPO Review

Bharat Dynamicsis one of the leading defense PSUs in India engaged in the manufacture of Surface to Air missiles (SAMs), Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGMs), underwater weapons, launchers, countermeasures and test equipment. It is the sole manufacturer in India for SAMs, torpedoes, ATGMs (Source: F&S Report). It is also the sole supplier of SAMs and ATGMs to the Indian armed forces (Source: F&S Report).

Additionally, it is also engaged in the business of refurbishment and life extension of missiles manufactured. It is also the codevelopment partner with the DRDO for the next generation of ATGMs and SAMs. It is a wholly-owned GoI company headquartered in Hyderabad and under the administrative control of the MoD, GoI and were conferred the ‘Mini-ratna (Category -1)’ status by the Department of Public Enterprises, GoI. Founded in 1970, it has over four decades of experience in manufacturing missiles and countermeasures and its allied equipment.

IPO Dates & Price Band:

IPO Open: 13-March-2018

IPO Close: 15-March-2018

IPO Size: Approx Rs.960 Crore (Approx)

Face Value: Rs.10 Per Equity Share

Price Band: Rs.413 to 428 Per Share

Listing on: BSE & NSE

Retail Portion: 35%

Equity: 22,451,953 Shares

Retail & Employee Discount: Rs.10

IPO Market Lot:

Shares: Apply for 35 Shares (Minimum Lot Size)

Amount: Rs.14,630 (For Retail & Employee)

Amount: Rs.14,980 (For QIB & HNI)

IPO Allotment & Listing:

Basis of Allotment: 20-March-2018

Refunds: 21-March-2018

Credit to demat accounts: 22-March-2018

Listing: 23-March-2018

Company Promoters:

President of India

Government of India

IPO Registrar:

Alankit Assignments Ltd

IPO Lead Managers:

IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Ltd

SBI Capital Markets Ltd

Yes Securities (India) Ltd

Economic Trends & Growth Outlook

The Central Statistics Organization and the Indian Monetary Fund forecasts India to be one of the fastest growing economy for the 2017-18 fiscal period. The Government of India forecasts the economy to grow at 7.1% during the same year. The growth is among the strongest of the G-20 nations.

Foreign Development Investment (FDI) rates have increased in sectors like defense, insurance, and other sectors. As a result FDI has jumped from $ 36 Billion in 2013-14 to $ 60 Billion in 2016-17. Under the ambit of the ‘Make in India’ initiative, investment procedure, license applications, declarations and other processes has been streamlined to boost investor confidence. Applications for permits have been digitized, and a new uniform tax regime (Goods & Services Tax) has been implemented to reduce complexity in taxation.

The Indian Defence Market – Macro Outlook

The Indian defense market is in a state of transition, as a result of new policies promulgated by the government. The Indian Armed Forces have not been able to spend the entire defense budget allocated, owing to straitjacketed procurement procedures and inherent delays; and the gap between allocated and actual defense spending has been increasing over the years. Frost & Sullivan expects the underspend in defense to decrease during the forecast period, as the government modifies policies to simplify procurement. Reduced underspending will drive defense budgets and the market will expand to $68.7 billion, recording a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.52 %, or $79.17 billion at a CAGR of 8.04 % depending on the government’s ability to simplify procurement through policy initiatives.

BDL is primarily dependent on a single customer, the Indian armed forces through the Ministry of Defence, Government of India (“MoD”). A decline or reprioritization of the Indian defence budget,the reduction in their orders, termination of contracts or failure to succeed in tendering projects and deviations in the short term and long term policies of the MoD or the Indian armed forces in the future will have a material adverse impact on its business, financial condition, and results of operations, growth prospects and cash flows.

As a result of national security concerns, certain information in relation to its business and operations is classified as ‘secret and confidential’ pursuant to which BDL have not disclosed such information in this DRHP nor provided such information to the BRLMs and other intermediaries and advisors involved in this Offer.

Its business operation is based out of three units in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. The loss of, or shutdown of, its operations at any of its units in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh will have a material adverse effect on its business, financial condition and results of operations.

BDL’s future growth and expansion are limited by its production capacities, the requirements of the MoD and the locations at which we operate.

BDL’s agreements, memorandums of understanding and non-disclosure agreements with various business partners may not yield the benefits we expect.

BDL derive its revenues from the MoD contracts on the achievement of certain milestones. Its contracts with the MoD are subject to termination.

Imposition of liquidated damages and invocation of performance bank guarantees / indemnity bonds by its customers could impact its results of operations and BDL may face potential liabilities from lawsuits and claims by customers in the future.

BDL is subject to a number of procurement rules and regulations of the MoD, Government regulations and other rules and regulations. Its business and its reputation could be adversely affected if BDL fail to comply with applicable rules.

Its business could be adversely affected by an adverse outcome of an audit by the Comptroller Auditor General of India (“CAG”).

The CAG and its current and past statutory auditors have qualified and made certain observations in their audit report on its financial statements in recent financial years.

There are outstanding legal and tax proceedings involving the Company. Any adverse decision in such proceedings may expose us to liabilities or penalties and may adversely affect its business,financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.

BDL has had a negative net cash flows in the past and may continue to have negative cash flows in the future.

Financials:

Total Income of 2016-17 INR 51,980.7 Millions
Total Income of 6M 2017-18 INR 21,902.51 Millions
Earnings per Share (EPS) INR.21.57**
Earnings per Share (EPS) 6M INR.7.21**
Equity Capital as on 30.9.2017 INR 916.41 Million
Equity Capital after the IPO: INR.
Upper Price Band/last EPS: 19.84**
Book Value of the Share As on September 30, 2017 INR 88.96**
**NAV adjusted for bonus shares in the ratio of 1:1
Upper offer price/Book Value Ratio: 4.81

It has no direct listed peers to compare with in India. In India BEL, Cochin Shipyard, L&T, M&M, Tata Power, Reliance Defense etc. are working on defense projects but their main revenue comes from another sector.

If we compare BDL to some exact peers in theUnitedStates – Lockheed Martin P/E 25, Rockwell Collins P/E 27, Northrop Grumman P/E 26, Raytheon P/E 28. BDL is asking same as international peers. Looks like it is fully priced.

Grey Market premium

Current GMP is Rs.4/- and Kostak is Rs.250/-

Conclusion:

BDL share is offered to retail investors at Rs. 418 ( net of retail discount) PE of 18.43 on Estimated EPS for the current year. So the IPO is very very reasonably priced. Yet due to varied factors Grey market lacks any fancy for this IPO and at the time of listing, Wishes of Grey market prevails.

So Listing Gains may not be significant. yet one should APPLY this IPO for solid Medium to long Term Gains.

DISCLAIMER

No financial information whatsoever published anywhere here should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, or as advice to do so in any way whatsoever. All matter published here is purely for educational and information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for making investment decisions. Readers must consult a qualified financial advisor before making any actual investment decisions, based on information published here.