ABC's Election Analyst blogs on the wonderful world of Australian Elections.

Western Australia Elections and Politics

November 06, 2014

Last week I wrote a post on turnout at NSW by-elections and made a number of observations on factors that influence by-election turnout. You can read the post here.

A clear difference existed in turnout between city and country electorates. Turnout is higher at by-elections in country electorates compared to city electorates, the difference even more marked compared to inner-city electorates.

The main reason for this difference is the absence of absent voting at by-elections. At general election voters can cast ballots outside of their home electorate, a facility not normally available at by-elections. At general elections the rate of absent voting is much higher in city electorates, so the consequence of its absence at by-elections is lower turnout in city by-elections.

Electoral authorities also find it easier to publicise by-elections in country electorates through local media in regional towns and cities, where in metropolitan areas it is much harder to target a message to a particular electorate.

After my post, long-time Western Australian election observer Jeremy Buxton sent me a table turnouts for WA by-elections. The conclusions from WA by-elections is very similar to those from NSW.

October 10, 2014

Over the next two weeks we will get an interesting measure of the local electoral mood in two states and the Northern Territory.

Next weekend, Saturday 18 October, voters in the northern Darwin seat of Casuarina and the south-west WA seat of Vasse go to the polls. I've published a profile for the Casuarina by-election at this link and the Vasse by-election via this link. I will be providing a full results coverage for both by-elections at those links from 6pm local times on 18 October, that is 7:30pm then 9pm eastern time.

The following weekend, 25 October, NSW voters in the neighbouring lower Hunter seats of Newcastle and Charlestown go to the polls in by-elections caused by the resignation of the sitting Liberal MPs. Both were elected in traditionally safe Labor seats at the Coalition's landslide win in 2011, and both resigned after ICAC hearings revealed they had taken illegal cash donations from developers.

May 27, 2013

Time for an update of my election calender to cover the full cycle of state polls to follow September's federal election.

You will note there is a long gap between the NSW and Queensland elections in March 2015 and the next Federal election in late 2016, assuming no double dissolution. If there was going to be a political debate started by the states on the GST, you would expect it to begin after March 2015.

March 15, 2013

Today the WA Electoral Commission will finalise the first preference counts for all ballot papers on hand in each lower house electorate.

There are a few hundred absent votes for the state to be included today, as well as a small number of provisional votes, rarely more than about 20 per electorate. There may be a small number of overseas votes received later today and these will be added to the count on Saturday morning.

Barring the handful of votes to be added, it appears that the Liberal party has retained Eyre by 130 votes, and Labor had retained Midland by 53 votes and Collie-Preston by just 19 votes.

Once the first preferences are finalised, the WAEC will start the formal distribution of preferences. This count excludes candidates succesively starting with the lowest polling candidate. The Commission will distribute the closest contests first, including confirmation of the results in Eyre, Midland and Collie-Preston.

March 13, 2013

With polls indicating that the Coalition is clear favourite to win this year's Federal election, attention is turning to the September's second contest, the battle for control of the Senate.

Senate numbers will be crucial in determining how the Coalition governs. Having committed itself to repealing the Gillard government's carbon price legislation, the Coalition can only do so by getting the numbers in the Senate.

Three paths are open for the Coalition to achieve repeal.

The first is to convince Labor to accept a Coalition House mandate and vote to repeal the legislation.

A second is to achieve control of the Senate through the half-Senate election, or to at least a change to the composition of the cross-benches to avoid having to negotiate with Labor or the Greens.

The third option, and one more difficult for the longer-term stability of an Abbot government, is to obtain a trigger allowing the deadlock provisions of the Constitution to be invoked with the calling of a double dissolution election.

Let me deal with the second option, a change in the Senate numbers.

The Coalition is highly unlikely to gain enough Senate seats to achieve control of the Senate in its own right.

However, if the election can change the composition of the Senate cross-bench, then the Abbott government could achieve its goal of repealing the carbon price legislation, and also find itself a negotiation path on other legislation that avoids having to deal with the Greens and Labor.

A state that is crucial to Coalition hopes of achieving this outcome is Western Australia, where last weekend's state election indicates that the Nationals or a small right-of-centre party could be elected at the expense of the Greens and deliver a critical vote in the Coalition's quest for senate control.