Motorists who divert to the Pattullo Bridge to avoid the $3 toll on the Port Mann probably aren’t saving as much as they think.

Todd Litman, founder and executive director of the Victoria Transport Policy Institute, maintains that besides fixed driving costs — such as insurance and annual depreciation — of operating a vehicle, the average Metro Vancouver driver is also facing 20 to 30 cents per kilometre in marginal costs on gas, oil, tire wear and mileage-based depreciation.

This means a driver who travels five kilometres out of the way to avoid the toll may only save about $1.50.

And, depending on the route, they may find themselves spending more time on the road or tied up in gridlock, which would cost them more in terms of time.

The B.C. transportation ministry’s rule of thumb is that personal travel time is valued at 25 to 50 per cent of prevailing wage rates, multiplied by hours saved. There are many variables — including car size, fuel consumption and time of day. An additional 11 minutes on the road, for instance, could cost a driver who earns $30 an hour between $1.38 and $2.75 for their time.

“We’re not saying people are bad. People are being rational based on what they know and their situation,” Litman said. “If somebody does take that extra-long trip to save a buck, that’s because that’s what they value.”

About a third of all motorists would happily drive out of their way to avoid a toll, Litman estimates, while another third would be willing to pay a substantial amount — such as $15 per hour saved — to get to their destination without added congestion. The remaining third are somewhere in the middle.

Yet the justification for roadway expansion projects is based on reducing congestion because motorists value their time. The provincial government, for instance, touted the new 10-lane Port Mann Bridge and Highway 1 widening project as saving motorists time on the road.

“That’s been the justification for spending millions and billions on roadway construction,” he said. “But are you willing to pay the costs?”

The Golden Ears Bridge is expected to continue losing up to $45 million a year because fewer people than projected are driving the tolled span. And Surrey and New Westminster transportation planners have argued that more drivers have diverted to the aging Pattullo Bridge since half-price tolls were slapped on the Port Mann in December 2012 and increased to $3 per crossing this month.

TransLink, which is responsible for the Pattullo, and Transportation Investment Corp., which oversees the Port Mann, say they don’t expect to release updated traffic numbers until next month. But Surrey transportation engineer Jaime Boan said the car numbers appear to be consistent with those of 2012, which saw about a five-per-cent increase in vehicles crossing the Pattullo on a daily basis. Tolls can help recover the costs of construction. But Litman noted that even modest tolls, such as those on the Golden Ears Bridge, are enough to stop motorists from using the crossing.

Early Tuesday afternoon, for instance, a driver who chose to take the Pattullo Bridge from 152nd Street and 101st Avenue to Hastings and Boundary needed 30 minutes to travel the 25-kilometre route, according to Google Maps. If they took the Port Mann, they could have shaved 10 minutes off the trip, which was just 0.3 km shorter.

By avoiding the toll, the driver would have saved $3, but because the Pattullo route took 10 minutes longer, the time value was $1.25 to $2.50.

“It’s kind of understandable why some people are willing to drive to save on tolls because they are saving a buck or two, but it demonstrates the justification for building 10 lanes on that bridge ... it’s way overbuilt,” Litman said.

“The optimum supply would have been six lanes, and the smart thing would have been to apply the toll before they built it.

“People want the additional roadway capacity, but when we ask ‘Are you willing to pay for it?’ they say, ‘Oh, I will find another way around.’ The Golden Ears Bridge is a poster child for this.”

Litman said part of the problem is the provincial government’s policy of looking at projects individually, and not taking into account that if one bridge is tolled, people will take a longer route and end up in more congestion.

According to a recent study, Congested and Nowhere to Go: Congestion, Road Infrastructure, and Road Pricing in Metro Vancouver, the region could see another 700,000 people vying for road space by 2041.

“It is a challenge because anytime you have congestion, whether it’s road congestion or parking congestion, the smart thing to do is apply some sort of fee, but it is politically difficult,” Litman said.

“Tolling should be rationalized, it should be applied so it’s reducing congestion on the whole road system, and not shifting congestion from one place to another.

“Roads and parking facilities are never really free. The choice is paying directly or indirectly. When they say, ‘I don’t want a tolled road,’ they’re saying they want some other tax increase to pay for this. You’re forced to pay for it even if you don’t use it. It’s more fair and efficient to pay those tolls or parking fees because then you have an incentive to ration your consumption.”

TIC spokesman Greg Johnson said drivers tend to make daily decisions as to whether they want to save time or money on their commute, and that choice of routes can change day-to-day. He noted experience in other jurisdictions such as Florida and Texas suggests diversion is likely to be temporary and will subside after a few months once drivers have tried all the routes and options available to them.

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