250,000 Could Die Early From Breathing in China’s Cities, Study Finds

Improved data has made it possible to better calculate how many people could die early deaths in China as a result of air pollution, researchers say. The results are grim.

According to a fresh analysis conducted by Peking University and the activist group Greenpeace, more than 250,000 people living in the country’s major cities could die prematurely as the result of the Middle Kingdom’s smog-ridden skies.

In what the researchers describe as a first, the study is based on data reflecting levels of small particulate matter known as PM 2.5 that the government began more widely reporting for certain cities in 2013.

The study looked at China’s major cities, specifically the country’s 31 provincial capitals. It concluded that an average of 90 out of every 100,000 people living in such cities could die prematurely following prolonged exposure to the levels of particulate matter pollution recorded in 2013.

Still, Peking University professor Pan Xiaochuan, who led the study, said that at least by certain indicators, the country’s air doesn’t consist of quite the same sickening morass of pollutants it used to be. For example, he said, levels of sulfur dioxide – which can cause various respiratory problems, particularly for the asthmatic – have dropped in cities.

“On the whole, air quality has had some improvement,” he said, though he said given limited PM 2.5 data availability for past years, it wasn’t possible to determine whether such pollutants – which experts say are most damaging to human health – had intensified or waned.

China’s government last year declared a “war” on pollution, a year after releasing more ambitious targets for PM2.5 reduction in several regions. For example, in Beijing -- whose high levels of air pollution recently prompted the mayor himself to call the city “unlivable” -- concentrations are targeted for around 25% reduction by 2017. The city is surrounded by some of the city’s highest levels of haze, thanks in part to its proximity to Hebei province, home to seven cities with the country’s dirtiest skies.

Greenpeace staffer Fang Yuan said he is “cautiously optimistic” that such targets can be reached, adding that Beijing’s PM2.5 levels dropped 4% compared with last year, thanks in part to stricter traffic controls and efforts to reduce coal consumption. However, he said, even if the city reduces PM2.5 levels to meet national targets by 2017, such levels will still be too high for recommended breathing levels.