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On another down day for stocks, it's clear that the mood of 2014's stock market is quite different than 2013's.

Several articles in recent days seem to have anticipated Monday's 179-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a 1.09% decline which represents the largest one-day percentage drop in the index since last September.

The Dow, after generating a 26.5% return last year, is down almost 2% in the new year.

Fortune

His argument is simple but powerful. Share-price growth in the past two years have far exceeded earnings growth, which in turn has pushed up price-to-earnings valuations to unsustainable levels.

"The explosion in prices relative to earnings has driven the S&P price-to-earnings ratio from 14.5 to 18.9," wrote Tully. "The average P/E since 1928 stands at 16, which means that investors' enthusiasm for stocks has transformed a bargain into a relative extravagance signaling danger ahead.

Added Tully, "Even the bravest bulls wouldn't argue prices will continue to far outpace the earnings that must eventually justify those prices."

"What streak am I talking about, exactly?," asks Sommer. "On Dec. 31, 2011, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index closed at 1,257.60. On the first trading day of 2012, it rose at the opening bell and never dropped below that level all year long. And on Dec. 31, 2012, it closed at 1,426.19 and, again, for all of 2013, never fell into negative territory.

"Now that the streak is over, it's not a terrible environment for the stock market, but conditions have changed and risk may be rising," Sommer writes.

But while stocks are down for the new year, the price of a
popular gold ETF,
gld -1.0486689970422156%SPDR Gold TrustU.S.: NYSE Arca110.4
-1.17-1.0486689970422156%
/Date(1481335200007-0600)/
Volume (Delayed 15m)
:
10319073AFTER HOURS110.59
0.190.1721014492753623%
Volume (Delayed 15m)
:
188624
P/E Ratio
N/AMarket Cap
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/ARev. per Employee
N/AMore quote details and news »gldinYour ValueYour ChangeShort position
(GLD) a good proxy for the metal, has risen a few percentage points in January after falling 26% last year.

The move up in gold has inspired a spate of bullish articles on gold, though most of the writers tend to be gold bugs.

In an article for Minyanville, Chris Vermeulen, the founder of TheGoldAndOilGuy newsletter, makes a technical case for why gold and the companies that mine it can head higher this year.

"Since 2011, I have been a very dormant gold trader. Why? Because the price and technical indicators topped out and confirmed a massive consolidation or bear market was in motion," Vermeulen writes. "With gold and gold stocks about to start a new bull market, it is time to get back to trading gold and gold stocks."

The problem with this thinking is that there are a number of powerful non-technical arguments for why gold doesn't seem any better of an investment today than it did a year ago.

Gold-related investments generally don't perform well when the economy is in the midst of an economic recover, the dollar is holding its value, and inflation is mild.