The cold, post-Cold War truth about Putin's — er, Medvedev's Moscow? It doesn't matter as much it used to. But if Obama's got his wits about him next week, he'll pretend like it does.

When President Obama lands in Moscow in a few days, expect plenty of official fanfare and plenty of cable-news coverage, but do not expect much in the way of important results. If anything, next week's summit will remind us how genuinely marginal Russia has become in global affairs, despite the recent surge in Western fears to the contrary (alas, it turns out that today we are not all Georgians). Yes, the Obama administration has spoken expansively of hitting the "reset" button in this relationship, but, frankly, to what great end?

A survey of the global landscape does not indicate that America needs any particularly special relationship with Russia:

• Does Washington need Moscow's help on the whole Afghanistan-Pakistan front? It could certainly use Moscow's forbearance on basing and transit rights. So sorta, but not really.

• How about on Iran? Sure, but China arguably has more pull there as Tehran's biggest oil and gas importer.

• Moving swiftly down the list... Russia still technically participates in the Six-Party Talks on North Korea. And if we have any more of those, I'm sure the Kremlin will send somebody. But only because they have to.

• Then there's the lingering issues on Georgia (too many Russian troops left behind, renewed fighting?)...

• ...and the persistent carping about America's planned missile-defense system in eastern Europe...

• ...and the usual intrigue over pipelines long planned but never built....

• Oh, and we need a new nuclear weapons reduction treaty to replace the one that'll run out in December.

Did I forget anything big? I mean, other than stuff we can't do anything about, like dead Russian journalists and Vladimir Putin's firm belief that Russia can't survive without him?

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Because when this former expert (masters in Soviet Studies, 1986) on the former Soviet Union racks and stacks all these issues, it's looking like a hill of beans compared to everything else Obama's got going on in this world. Indeed, it makes me wonder why our president even bothers going all the way to Moscow in the first place to speak with Putin's puppet president, Dmitry Medvedev.

Why not go first to Beijing? Or to New Delhi or Brasilia? Of the so-called BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China), Russia is clearly the long-term runt of the litter, offering energy, some transit opportunities (it's still a big country), and, when you come right down to it, not much else. It's only because we don't have much of any strategic relationship with Moscow that Obama even uses the word "reset." Russia's foreign minister says overcoming the legacy of the Cold War "will take time"? Duh.

Believe you me, Obama's got zero chance of losing his re-election bid in 2012 over not "standing up" to the Russians. Putin barely cracks our top-ten list of international bad boys nowadays, and his "resurgent Russia" defense budget doesn't even match our increase (!) since 9/11. And unlike Beijing's masters, Russia doesn't possess vast holdings of U.S. Treasuries. Indeed, the Russian economy is deeply overleveraged, much like our own.

So why make this special effort with Russia? Habit, I suppose. Obama's term(s) will definitely overlap with a major restructuring of global affairs, although that will come overwhelmingly in economic matters versus security issues, meaning — again — that Russia is the least crucial of the BRICs for Obama to engage. But because the Russian portfolio is crammed full of non-economic issues, it also provides Obama with a cleanable plate, meaning he might be able to set a more positive initial tone next week before tackling the more intransigent economic issues with the BRIC's other members. Compared to restarting the WTO's "Doha Development Round," cutting another strategic arms deal with Moscow is low-hanging fruit.

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If that's Obama's ambition (and there's something to be said for engineering first-year diplomatic victories amidst all this financial capitulation), here's a list of things to keep in mind when attempting deals with our Russian friends:

1. Moscow Is Masquerading as a Representative Government

Yes, Putin's regime feeds the populace a steady diet of anti-American propaganda, but let's not flatter ourselves here, because it's all this former KGB officer knows how to do. In general, we remain liked among the people, certainly no worse than in Europe. But to justify his increasingly authoritarian rule, Putin needs to market a firm enemy image — namely, the West, led by America, seeking to marginalize Russia even more than history already has. But mistake none of this for true ideology, because Putin's regime is nothing more than an aggressive business monopoly — all id, no ideology.

2. They're Done with the USSR Jigsaw Puzzle

Russia has already given up the Baltics and virtually all of eastern Europe (save tiny Kaliningrad) to the EU/NATO integration machine, and has additionally allowed all of its remaining former Soviet republics to enter into "partnership for peace" agreements with its former enemy alliance (Russia technically remains a partner as well). That means each of 15 "republics" that once made up the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics is now either an actual NATO member or a partner state (not bad for 20 years after the Berlin Wall came down). But reflecting Moscow's recent Georgia intervention, the Kremlin has drawn a firm line around its immediate bordering regions — specifically Ukraine and the Caucasus. Unless Europe is willing to ditch NATO and develop some new, overarching security organization, as Moscow has called for, its eastward progression has logically ended. Accept that, and move on.

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3. Russia Is Suffering from Stunning Demographic Decline

The average lifespan of Russian men continues to plummet, and Russian couples simply are having nowhere near enough babies to maintain the population. As a result, Russia is predicted to decline from roughly 140 million to somewhere in the range of 105-110 million by mid-century, or a drop approaching one-fifth (!) of the current population. Meanwhile, America will grow by a third. We are countries heading into vastly different futures, so we should expect Russia to exhibit an old man's perspective on international affairs: persistently crabby, taking disputes too personally, inconsistently belligerent with the world at large, and myopically concerned with its own front lawn — meaning the Caucasus. So, for all your wannabe Cold Warriors, get jacked while you can about Russian military cooperation with Hugo Chavez and so on, because the future is not bright for the still decaying Russian military.

4. Want Integration? Ditch NATO and Lead with the EU

Dmitry Trenin, my favorite Russian analyst on Russian affairs (and, yes, you should always go with the natives whenever possible), recently reminded us that the EU began as a relatively simple coal-and-steel agreement among long-time enemies. With Russian energy companies moving aggressively downstream (in a business sense) into European refineries and retail outlets, there seems a clear opportunity to engage Moscow along similar lines. Or we can continue trying to outflank them with pipe dreams like the Nabucco line that connects Europe with Central Asia while bypassing Russia. Me? I always prefer acceding to somebody's greed rather than inflaming their fears.

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5. The Russians Are Losing Central Asia to the Chinese, Not the Americans

During my grand tour with Central Command boss Admiral Fox Fallon in late 2007, I got the same analysis from every American embassy we toured: While the Central Asian governments are all turning into "mini-me" clones of Putin's harsh regime, their economies are all slowly turning Chinese. So, yes, celebrate the fact that Team Obama just out-bribed the Kremlin to keep our crucial air base in Kyrgyzstan (for another year), but don't confuse this "great game" with the investment and insider hardball being quietly — and successfully — played by Beijing.

6. The Kremlin Loves Arms Control

For the Russians, it's like the ignored ex-husband who gets to haul his ex-wife into court about some child-custody violation: there's no chance in hell they're getting back together again or that he'll ever be important in her life again, but for just that moment, he gets to yank her chain some and remind her that he still walks the planet. Much more important than reducing the small number of nuclear weapons that the U.S. and Russia now possess (down from tens of thousands each to now just several thousand each) would be some movement on a cybersecurity deal that linked the two of us with China. Most of the cyberattacks that American government installations (and electrical grids, and...) suffer each year emanate from Russia and China. Our side is proposing more cooperation among law-enforcement agencies, but Moscow prefers the more traditional route of "offensive" arms limitations. Nothing too useful is likely to come of such talks — we're too far apart — but we should pursue them anyway to keep the dialogue going on this all-important issue.

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7. Putin Is Russia's Andrew Jackson

Like Jackson, Putin got his start in national security, has a huge chip on his shoulder about the dominant superpower of the age (Jackson hated Britain), likes to reward his friends and punish his enemies with vehemence (Jackson's "spoils" system), and has few qualms about waging massively destructive warfare against weaker border peoples (for Putin, Chechnya and Georgia; for Jackson, the Seminoles [as appointed governor] and Cherokee [the]). Putin also mirrors Jackson's disdain for the judiciary and his laser-like focus on elevating his nation through the exploitation of basic commodities (Putin has oil and gas, Jackson had cotton). Though "King Andrew" was remembered for ushering in the "age of democracy," his ruling style was anything but, right down to his naming his successor (his so-called third term). Putin may seem unbearable by today's standards, but realize that he justifies his harsh rule as a necessary recovery from Boris Yeltsin's "anything goes" reign. Eventually, Russia moves past needing such men, just like we did.

8. The Georgian War Has Gone Predictably Personal

Putin hates Mikhail Saakashvilli almost as much as John McCain pretended to like him. And now Georgia's hot-headed president has returned the favor. Don't expect any possibility of rapprochement between the two states until Saakashvilli is voted out of office (if he allows that). Also don't expect Russia to ever return Abkhazia or South Ossetia to Georgia. That child-custody battle will go on for decades, so if you're looking for progress in our bilateral relations, look somewhere else.

9. Ultimately, Russia Turns Westward

The quiet, untold story of the last two decades is how China has rapidly replaced Russia as the economic force of interior Asia. Russia may not feel European in its heart, but over the years, it'll find itself so hemmed in by Chinese economic interests that it'll have no choice but to throw its lot in with Europe and North America (as the Arctic north opens up with global warming). So be patient with Russia's current penchant for casting itself as one of the great champions of a post-American world. It's just another phase in its pathetic post-Soviet recovery.

10. The Regime Is 18 Years Old — Literally and Figuratively

We've seen this time and time again: After the liberating revolution — be it political or economic — a single ruling party dominates the regime for several decades, only allowing opposition parties to finally win once a broad and aging middle class rose up to demand such change, either quietly or angrily (see Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, soon Malaysia). On that scale of development, Russia's only a late teenager, and not too surprisingly, it behaves like one, demanding levels of attention and respect unwarranted by its behavior. My advice to Obama? Treat Moscow like a big deal, understanding all along that it isn't and won't be one any time soon.

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