Thursday

Nov 15, 2018 at 2:00 PMNov 15, 2018 at 2:40 PM

Property owners, motorists, airline passengers and school districts can expect an early hit from Old Man Winter with snow, ice and rain set to cause power outages and travel disruptions over a large portion of the northeastern United States into Friday.

The storm, already producing widespread snow and icy conditions in the Midwest, central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, will strengthen and sweep across the balance of the Northeast states during Thursday afternoon, Thursday night and Friday morning.

Ice to continue to be the most dangerous, damaging part of the storm

As of 11:30 a.m. EST Thursday, more than 500,000 utility customers were without power as a result of the storm, according to poweroutage.us.

People living in or traveling through portions of Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York and New England can expect dangerous driving and walking conditions.

On Wednesday night, up to 0.50 inches of ice accrued on trees, power lines and other elevated surfaces across portions of Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio, resulting in widespread power outages.

During Thursday morning, a heavy amount of ice fell on the Shenandoah and New River valleys of Virginia and caused scores of accidents.

The area of ice will continue to creep slowly northeastward with the storm into Thursday night.

Icy travel will not be limited to bridges, overpasses and areas that do not receive direct sunlight. Any untreated surface can become slippery. Ice may accrue to 0.25- to 0.5.0-of-an-inch-thick on elevated surfaces, such as trees, vehicles and utility lines. Expect lengthy and widespread power outages.

In terms of property damage and power outages, sleet would be less disruptive, but almost as dangerous to drive on as freezing rain.

As winds pick up on the tail end and after the storm departs, more trees and power lines are likely to come down.

First snow of the season from DC to NYC and Boston

Farther to the northeast, some freezing rain is in store, but the storm is likely to bring heavier sleet and snow or a change to rain.

Still, power outages and difficult travel are likely from the northern mid-Atlantic to northern New England.

"Students should still do their homework assignments, but there are likely to be many early dismissals and closures on Thursday and many schools may be delayed or closed on Friday," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek.

"Likewise, many daycare centers in the heart of the snow and ice may be closed," Dombek said.

For much of the northern I-95 corridor of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England, this already has been or will be the first snow and ice of the season.

Airline passengers and motorists can expect enough snow and ice to create a mess from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore; Philadelphia; Newark, New Jersey; New York City; Hartford, Connecticut; Boston; and Portland, Maine; even though a change to rain and flooding in poor drainage areas is forecast. Expect major delays and flight cancellations.

A general 1-3 inches of snow is forecast over the nearby northern and western suburbs of Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia, New York City and Boston.

"The duration and amount of snow and sleet will increase farther north and west of the I-95 swath," according to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams.

"Since it may be snowing at the rate of 1-2 inches per hour near the time of the change to rain near the coast and a change to sleet inland, there is the potential for much heavier snowfall," Abrams said.

A band of very heavy snow has developed and was crawling northward over central Pennsylvania. Within this band snow is falling at the rate of 2 inches per hour. In these conditions, recently plowed, treated or wet roads can become covered with snow in a matter of minutes.

Following a period of snow and sleet, there may be pockets that receive a heavy buildup of freezing rain and run the risk of power outages. Only where more sleet than freeze rain falls might power outages be limited and localized.

"Some of these areas at risk include southeastern Pennsylvania, the valleys of northern New Jersey and part of the lower Hudson Valley of New York," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Dave Samuhel.

"The risk is greatest where there still some leaves on the trees and in heavily-wooded areas," Samuhel said.

There is the potential for 6-12 inches of snow from western Maryland to northwestern Maine; however, sleet and freezing rain may cut down on accumulations. In some areas, it is possible that 1-2 inches of sleet falls on top of the snow. Where there is little or no ice at the height of the storm, some locations may pick up an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 16 inches.

From portions of northern Pennsylvania to northern Maine, it may never change to sleet and rain.

During late Thursday night to Friday, there is the chance of a burst of snow at the tail end of the storm that reaches some areas that changed to ice and rain.

It may be a struggle for some high school and college athletic programs to clear football stadiums and parking areas of snow and ice in time for games scheduled for Friday night and Saturday.

College students who are heading home early for Thanksgiving break may want to delay their trip until later Friday or Saturday when the storm has passed and major roads have been cleared of snow and ice.

Rain to soak mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England

The storm will not bring snow or ice from northeastern North Carolina to southern New Jersey. Any wintry mix will be brief from eastern Long Island, New York, to much of Rhode Island and Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

In eastern North Carolina, expect thunderstorms. With these, there is the potential for localized flooding downpours and gusty winds.

The rain can be heavy enough to cause flooding in poor drainage areas northern North Carolina to southern and eastern Virginia, eastern Maryland, Delaware, much of New Jersey, southeastern New York and southeastern New England.

A brief period of gusty onshore winds can cause sporadic power outages, while above-normal tides can cause minor coastal flooding from Virginia to Maine as the storm advances northeastward later Thursday to Thursday night.

Where leaves have fallen and block storm drains and gutters, flooding will be made worse.

The combination of fallen leaves and rain will make for slippery conditions in lieu of snow.

Break from major storms to follow

In the wake of the storm, the air will not be tremendously cold, but temperatures are forecast to be low enough to prompt bands of lake-effect snow from Friday to Saturday.

Only spotty pockets of snow and rain are forecast from this weekend through Wednesday of next week for Thanksgiving travel concerns.