Rainfall totals for February 2012 ranged from just under one inch near the I-44 corridor to around three inches elsewhere. Locations across northern Osage, western Pawnee, and eastern Kay Counties received up to around 200% of the normal rainfall in February, while the remainder of the eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas was well below normal, only receiving 25% to 75% of the normal rainfall for February

According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey (OCS) for February 2012, northeast OK ranked as the 36th wettest, east central OK ranked as the 27th driest, and southeast OK ranked as the 28th driest February since records began in 1921.

Winter (December-January-February) 2011-12

Tulsa: Winter 2011-12 was the 6th warmest (43.9°F, tied with 1933-34; since 1905-06), the 30th driest (3.67"; since 1888-89), and the 10th least snowy (1.7"; since 1900-01) Winter on record.

Fort Smith: Winter 2011-12 was the 4th warmest (46.1°F; since 1882-83), the 33rd wettest (10.04"; since 1882-83), and the 40th least snowy (2.0", tied with 1888, 1996, 2007; since 1883-84) Winter on record.

According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey (OCS) for Winter 2011-12, northeast OK ranked as the 11th driest, east central OK ranked as the 10th wettest, and southeast OK ranked as the 6th wettest Winter since records began in 1921.

Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for March 2012 (issued February 29, 2012) indicates a strongly enhanced chance for above normal temperatures across northeast OK and northwest AR, and an enhanced chance of above normal temperatures for southeast OK. This outlook also indicates equal chances for above, near, and below median precipitation for the entire area. This outlook was based primarily on short-term dynamic computer models with La Niña and Madden-Julian (MJO) impacts considered.

For the 3-month period March-April-May 2012, CPC is forecasting an enhanced chance for above average temperatures and equal chances for above, near, and below median precipitation across all of eastern OK and northwest AR (outlook issued February 16, 2012). This outlook is based on dynamic computer models and is consistent with a La Niña pattern plus a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO).

According to CPC, weak La Niña conditions remained in place at the end of February. La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific are likely to become neutral by May, though atmospheric impacts may linger a little longer.