And IDC's Bob O'Donnell believes that will dictate pricing. For both Microsoft-branded Surface RT and other Windows RT products from companies like Asus and Dell.

The 32GB iPad (currently $599) has a big bull's eye on its back, O'Donnell told me yesterday. For both Surface and RT devices from Microsoft partners. And throw Windows 8 Pro devices based on Intel's power-efficient system-on-a-chip, aka Atom, into that mix too, said O'Donnell.

Remember, RT tablets use power-frugal ARM chips and come with a version of Windows 8 that is not compatible with older Windows software. Windows 8 Pro tablets, on the other hand, are powered by Intel chips and can run the millions of older Windows programs out there.

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The only product lines that won't compete directly with the iPad are high-end tablets (and tabletlike devices) based on Intel's fast Core i series chips used in ultrabooks, said O'Donnell. They will be priced in the $899 to $999 ballpark, he said.

And that will include Microsoft's Surface Pro tablet coming out in early 2013.

And what about that rumored $199 Microsoft Surface tablet that theoretically would compete with Google's $199 Nexus 7?

For guidance, I have been told repeatedly by Microsoft that "suggested retail pricing...is expected to be competitive with a comparable ARM tablet or Intel Ultrabook-class PC." (The same statement Microsoft made in June when it launched Surface.)

And I was told yesterday by someone familiar with Microsoft's Surface strategy that "comparable" does not apply to a 7-inch tablet, like the Nexus 7. Comparable products are 10-inch class tablets with the latest versions of Android from a first-tier player like Samsung.

So, that means theoretically that Surface RT and other RT products could compete with a low-end 10-inch class Wi-Fi-only Android product from Samsung, for example.

Whatever the case, all of the low-end 10-inch class Android tablets from top-tier vendors, like the $399 Samsung Galaxy Tab 2, are competing with the $399 iPad 2.

But $199? I'll leave that to readers to speculate (e.g., $199 with a monthly Microsoft subscription), but I don't see any new 10-inch $199 tablets from Samsung, Motorola, or Asus.

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About the author

Brooke Crothers writes about mobile computer systems, including laptops, tablets, smartphones: how they define the computing experience and the hardware that makes them tick. He has served as an editor at large at CNET News and a contributing reporter to The New York Times' Bits and Technology sections. His interest in things small began when living in Tokyo in a very small apartment for a very long time.
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