Saturday, 4 June 2016

RBI Policy Key to Upward Movement : Markets Next Week : 04 June 2016

It was another week of gains for the Sensex and the Nifty. Both the indices managed to gain for the second successive week, taking total gains to 6 per cent in 2-weeks.Most of the global markets were also up this week.

Buying interest was once again restricted to select stocks. Among the Sensex stocks, Hindalco and Axis Bank saw good buying during the week.

Idea Cellular came in for some heavy selling pressure on Friday, with the stock losing as much as 10 per cent. There were reports that Providence was planning to sell a stake in the company.

Shares in Hindustan Unilever also saw good buying support after the FMCG major said that it will split its food and refreshment business into two.

Pharma stocks were weak after Sun Pharma posted a poor set of results. Most companies from the space saw some selling pressure.

Next week global markets, including India would react to the US jobs data. The US Jobs data which showed addition of just 38,000 jobs was not a good figure. This may lead to the US Fed pausing on interest rate hikes in the month of June.

Indian markets may see mild selling pressure on Monday as weakish jobs data, points to weak economy.

All eyes would also be on the Reserve Bank of India to see what it does at its policy meet on Tuesday. A cut in interest rates by the country's central bank would be a surprise. The RBI is largely expected to keep policy rates on hold at its monetary policy meet.

Inflation has already been edging up and a fuel price increase may add to the problem, which would be on the mind of RBI policy makers. It would be good to see what the RBI's guidance on inflation would be. A hawkish tone by the Reserve Bank of India may lead to more selling pressure in the Indian markets, particularly banking stocks.

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