Vote on account in January, polls may be in March-April

NEW DELHI: The fractious 15th Lok Sabha, marked by UPA-opposition clashes over cases of corruption in high places like 2G, Commonwealth Games and Coalgate, will meet for the last time in mid or end-January to pass a vote on account, clearing the way for Lok Sabha elections by late March or early April.

Sources said the government is planning to take the vote on account next month, with January 13-17 being seen as a likely window. Polls can be held by late March or early April. The 2004 and 2009, elections were held between mid-April and mid-May.

The move to be done with the vote on account and set the stage for the next Lok Sabha polls comes in the backdrop of an increasingly dysfunctional Parliament and feverish lobbying for a no-trust motion submitted by six Congress MPs.

A sense of uncertainty and the perception that Congress's rout in four north Indian states has left the embattled Manmohan Singh government further enfeebled, encouraging the Seemandhra MPs to defy the party authority.

The assembly poll results rattled Congress and a review meeting on Monday saw functionaries point to high inflation â€” seen to be the Centre's failing â€” as an important reason for the debacle. Congress chief Sonia Gandhi is learnt to have agreed with the assessment

The no-confidence motion could not be taken up by Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar due to lack of order in the House, but it continued to be intensely discussed with political parties weighing the merits of supporting the motion.

While Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee ruled out supporting the no-confidence move, Biju Janata Dal's 14 MPs will support the motion when the admission of the motion is considered.

As of now, the motion does not have the backing of 50 MPs that are required to rise in support when the Speaker seeks the opinion of the House and Congress managers are going all out to ensure that the move fizzles out.

YSR Congress leader Jaganmohan Reddy also met several leaders, including Banerjee, to seek support for the no-trust motion submitted by Congress MPs from the non-Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh.

Banerjee told Reddy she did not see merit in a no-confidence motion as Congress would survive the vote with the support of outside allies like SP and BSP leaders Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati who have always bailed out the UPA.

Reddy did manage to get Yadav to submit an adjournment motion on Telangana on Tuesday but most leaders do not believe the SP chief will back a no-trust, particularly after the Muzaffarnagar riots.

Given reports of intense polarization on religious lines in western UP and BJP leader Narendra Modi's forays into Uttar Pradesh, the SP boss is unlikely to attract the charge that he weakened "secular forces" at the Centre.

But though the government is not considering curtailing the winter session, it seems clear that not much business is likely to be transacted going by current trends. The final session of the current Lok Sabha is likely to be convened ahead of the usual mid-February date so that elections can be called any time thereafter.

The 2009 Lok Sabha elections were held from April 16 to May 13 and the results were declared on May 16. In 2004, the results were declared on May 13 after elections were held from April 20 to May 10.

Government floor managers have so far been unable to persuade the Congress MPs who submitted the motion for a no-trust vote to withdraw their initiative. The MPs, driven by constituency concerns, have also been encouraged by the uncertainty and flux following the assembly polls.