Trends in Ground Transportation to and from Airport Reflect Nationwide Mobility Shift

NREL Study Focuses on Growing Use and Impacts of Ride-Hailing Services

June 12, 2018

Recent studies indicate that both air travel and the use of ride-hailing services
such as Uber and Lyft are on the rise in cities around the world. Global demand for
air travel is expected to double by 2035, and new airport infrastructure investments
and modernization upgrades—costing tens of billions of dollars—are anticipated.

"For the first time in many years, if not decades, passenger transportation and aviation
systems are on the frontline of innovation in moving more people faster, cheaper,
and better—fueled in part by greater convenience and increased choices, among other
things," said Josh Sperling, NREL urban futures and energy nexus engineer. "We can
observe and track these transitions through shifts in revenue streams at airports,
with implications for the future of ride-hailing, parking, and car rental services
in cities, as well as the physical infrastructure supporting each sector."

"The revenue data associated with major transportation hubs, such as airports, signal
critical shifts in the adoption of new mobility options, such ride-hailing to and
from airports, as opposed to using personal vehicles," Sperling added. "The increasing
use of ride-hailing services has major implications for transportation, energy use,
revenues, and future infrastructure."

The use of ride-hailing service companies, also referred to as transportation network
companies (TNCs), continues to grow—comprising up to 18% of all passenger ground transportation
to and from airports.

Percentage of passengers using ride-hailing services when traveling to/from four major
U.S. airports

Additionally, the need for airport parking no longer directly reflects growth in the
number of airport passengers. Rather, parking revenues per passenger peaked about
12 to 24 months after the introduction of TNCs, and steadily declined thereafter.
Initial findings from the four airports considered in the study show an annualized
declining rate range of 3% to 7%.

"Continuing this trend would mean that airport parking demand could be cut in half
in about 14 years," said Alejandro Henao, a postdoctoral researcher at NREL. "While
this can be viewed as a declining revenue base, it could also enable airport growth
without additional parking infrastructure investments, freeing up airport property
for other uses. It also allows for new revenue streams—airports implementing a TNC
fee for ride-hailing pick-ups and drop-offs are seeing an uptick, with Denver and
San Francisco earning upwards of $600,000 to $2 million a month in new service-fee
revenue."

Looking to the Future

The trends observed from airport data provide an early glance into the rapid adoption
of new mobility services. Airport revenue streams shed light on transportation mode
shifts in urban areas and provide insight into future demand for parking infrastructure.

Total parking revenue has peaked, and growth in parking demand is not tracking with
growth in air travel, with ride-hailing being a major contributor to the shift. As
a result, curb demand, rather than parking demand, is a factor in accommodating increased
air travel.