Taking
data from www.pro-football-reference.com, I have created a much
better system that more accurately values each pick in the NFL draft,
similar to the work done by Chase Stuart. Pro-Football-Reference uses
a metric called Career Approximate Value (CAV) that allows one to
compare players across seasons and positions. It is not meant as the
ultimate NFL statistic. It is useful for comparing large groups of
players across time and positions, which is exactly the objective
here. Using data from 1980 through 2005, I analyzed each overall
draft pick from 1 to 224 (the 32nd pick of the 7th
round in today’s draft). I found the mean, median, and standard
deviation of the CAV for each pick from those 25 years, creating one
set of data that represented the historical value of each pick. I
then found the mean, median and standard deviation for this new
dataset to determine the expected value of a normal draft pick. I
then used that normal pick to standardize my data, finding the
percentage value over average, or Career Approximate Value Over
Average (CAVOA), for every pick in the draft.

For
example, the first overall pick, historically, has had a mean CAV of
66.7. The standard draft pick had a mean CAV of 15.03. . Thus the
first overall pick was 443.39% more valuable than the standard pick.
Using this method, I found the CAVOA of every pick in the draft, and
then regressed it against overall pick number. The regression
equation was with an R2 of 0.91599. The R2 means that the variance
in overall pick number explains 91.599% of the variance in CAVOA.
Using this equation, I found the expected CAVOA for every pick in the
draft.

The
CAVOA is the comparative value of each pick versus the normal pick
and is based off of real, historical, on-field performance. This
non-arbitrary statistic is a massive improvement over the old draft
chart. To compare my system with the old one, I transformed the old
system into a percentage over average as well. The results are below.

The old
system massively over values the earliest picks and significantly
undervalues mid-to-late round picks. The regression line is clearly a
better predictor of future value than the old chart.