000
FXUS63 KDLH 122008
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
308 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018
For the rest of the afternoon, the stratocumulus cloud field that
has developed from the International Border to the Twin Ports south
over northwest Wisconsin will persist along with gusty northwest
winds, with gusts up to around 30 mph. The boundary layer has mixed
above the 900 mb level, mixing down some stronger winds, which are
expected to weaken by the late evening as the boundary layer
decouples. The stratocu field should linger through the evening
hours as a mid-level shortwave dives southward over the eastern
portions of the region. While the lift associated with the shortwave
is progged to be weak, it should still support chances of lake
effect snow showers over the Lake Superior snowbelt region, thanks
to persistent northerly 1000-850 mb layer flow, and favorable delta-
Ts per the RAP/NAM/GFS models. Delta-T values should drop into the
15 to 20 degree range as the 850 mb level temperatures become
colder. Snowfall amounts should be fairly light, between a few
tenths of an inch up to an inch and a half along the Gogebic Range.
Some flurries will be possible over the Minnesota Arrowhead tonight,
but no accumulation is anticipated. Overnight lows should drop into
the single digits by International Falls to the middle teens over
northwest Wisconsin where cloud cover will linger.
Small chances of lake effect snow will linger through the morning
hours Tuesday before diminishing by the afternoon as surface high
pressure approaches from the northwest. Despite the high currently
situated over southwest Manitoba Canada, it will be a very slow
moving high and is not expected to pass by to our southwest until
Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures should be in the 30s across the
Northland, with upper 30s over the west due to more abundant
sunshine and lower 30s over the east where clouds will linger.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018
Quiet with no organized systems expected. The only caveat to that is
the 12Z GFS brings a system through Iowa next Tuesday which could
send a precip shield north to the southern portions of our CWA. This
is one solution from the suite of deterministic models trying to
forecast what happens with a deep long wave trough moving into the
PacNW, so some caution is exercised in any solution regarding this
feature.
The forecast leading up to this system is largely dry and warmer.
Friday morning may be cool with single digit temperatures under
a good radiational cooling night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018
VFR conditions expected through the 18z TAF period. North to
northwest flow will persist through the morning hours Tuesday as
we remain between high pressure, located over southeast
Saskatchewan, and low pressure over lower Michigan. Winds could
gust up to 20 kts today as we remain within the tight surface
pressure gradient between the high and low. Some stratocumulus
clouds are anticipated today, with SCT to BKN ceilings between 4
to 5 kft, as higher relative humidity air moves southward.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 14 34 18 39 / 0 0 0 0
INL 9 37 17 38 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 13 36 17 41 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 17 32 15 41 / 10 0 0 0
ASX 18 31 17 39 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...JTS