A reshuffling of political representation in favor of the Inland Empire and to the detriment of Los Angeles County could be in order following the 2020 census, according to a new report from a Southern California think tank.

The report from the Rose Institute of State and Local Government at Claremont McKenna College predicts the Inland region and Bay Area will gain state legislative and congressional seats at the expense of the San Gabriel Valley and southeast LA County in the next round of political redistricting, which will redraw Assembly, state Senate and House of Representatives districts to reflect updated population figures.

“Slow growth rates in parts of Los Angeles County means those regions are likely to see their influence reduced in Sacramento and Washington, while relatively high growth rates in the San Francisco Bay Area and the San Bernardino/Riverside County Inland Empire mean those areas are likely to increase their influence after the 2021 redistricting,” institute Fellow Douglas Johnson said in a news release.

The forecast “assumes relatively even Census participation and accuracy across the state,” the news release read. “Areas that are more effective in getting residents to participate in the Census could see gains in representation and federal funding at the expense of areas that lag in Census participation.”

Complicating matters is the prospect of California losing one of its 53 House seats once the census is complete. That could happen if there’s an undercount – a likely scenario, critics say, if the Trump administration is allowed to include a citizenship question on the census that could deter participation by undocumented immigrants.

Riverside and San Bernardino counties – home to more than 4 million – are represented by eight state senators, 14 Assembly members, and 9 House members. Los Angeles County – the nation’s most populated with more than 10 million – has 18 House members, 14 state senators, and 24 Assembly members.

According to the report, these House districts are at greatest risk of dissolving:

The report notes that all four districts are represented by a Latina or Asian-American.

“Traditionally in California, seats held by Latino, African-American, or Asian-American representatives were relatively protected by the Federal Voting Rights Act, with their districts pushing east or west to pick up the population needed – at the expense, in the past, of the Republican-held seats on the edges of Los Angeles County,” the report read.

“But the 2018 Democratic wave essentially swept Republicans out of the County and Orange County is entirely represented by Democrats. Unless Republicans pick up a seat in the area in the 2020 election, California’s lost seat is likely to be a Democratic one.”

Unlikely many states, California redistricting is handled by a 14-member, independent citizens’ commission of five Democrats, five Republicans and four independents or third-party members chosen through an application process that involves the legislature’s leaders and State Auditor Elaine Howle’s office.

The commission will rely on 2020 Census data, as well as public input, in deciding how to draw districts.

Paul Hubler, director of government and community relations for the San Gabriel Valley Council of Governments, said the number of valley representatives is less important than the quality of relationships with those lawmakers.

“We will strongly advocate for ensuring that communities of interest in the San Gabriel Valley remain together,” said Hubler, whose organization represents 30 cities.

The report’s findings “(point) out the importance of the Census and having an accurate Census,” said Paul Granillo, president, and CEO of the Inland Empire Economic Partnership, which seeks to promote the region’s economy.

The Inland region, Granillo said, is growing by 85,000 people annually. “That’s a good-sized city … With that growth should come growth in our political power.”

The Inland Empire Complete Count Committee, an alliance of government and business groups in conjunction with UC Riverside’s Center for Social Innovation, is working to ensure the region’s hard-to-count populations are reached by the census.

The report “shows the potential for realignment in what political power and representation looks like in California,” said Karthick Ramakrishnan, a UCR public policy and political science professor and the committee’s director

“I say ‘potential’ because a lot of it will depend on what the census count looks like,” he added. “If we have a severe undercount problem in the Inland Empire and LA does not, then those gains in representation will not materialize.”

Jeff Horseman got into journalism because he liked to write and stunk at math. He grew up in Vermont and he honed his interviewing skills as a supermarket cashier by asking Bernie Sanders “Paper or plastic?” After graduating from Syracuse University in 1999, Jeff began his journalistic odyssey at The Watertown Daily Times in upstate New York, where he impressed then-U.S. Senate candidate Hillary Clinton so much she called him “John” at the end of an interview. From there, he went to Annapolis, Maryland, where he covered city, county and state government at The Capital newspaper before love and the quest for snowless winters took him in 2007 to Southern California, where he started out covering Temecula for The Press-Enterprise. Today, Jeff writes about Riverside County government and regional politics. Along the way, Jeff has covered wildfires, a tropical storm, 9/11 and the Dec. 2 terror attack in San Bernardino. If you have a question or story idea about politics or the inner workings of government, please let Jeff know. He’ll do his best to answer, even if it involves a little math.