UFC on FOX 25 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC on FOX 25 is one of those events that looks perfect for betting. I expect to make a lot of money this weekend from both our Live and Prefight betting tips.

UFC Fight Night Glasgow was a perfect example of how we need to stay disciplined to make a long term profit. While many people were trying to force bets on unpredictable fighters, we kept things tight and ground out a small profit. This is the key to winning long term.

When we encounter an event like UFC Glasgow that is tough for betting, it is important to tighten up. But when we encounter an event that looks ideal for betting, we must bet aggressively to maximize the amount of money we can make.

Please keep checking this article regularly for updates because I’ll be adding more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the fights.

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DO NOT PLACE BETS ON ALL OF OUR PICKS

In the table below we give our pick / prediction for every fight. This is to help you put together teams in Fantasy MMA or enter Pick’em competitions. Please do not bet on these picks. You should only bet on our official VIP Betting Tips that you can find further down this page.

These picks and predictions are based on which fighters we perceive to have the best betting value. This doesn’t necessarily mean we think the fighter we pick has any notable advantage over their opponent.

The results of these picks are not tracked. We share them with the community because some members use them to enter Fantasy MMA and Pick’em competitions.

Gian Villante vs Patrick Cummins Betting Tip and Prediction

Gian Villante is never going to be a safe bet, but this is gambling, and we need to take calculated risks to profit long term.

If this fight stays standing, Villante will win. So the main question we have to ask ourselves when trying to predict the outcome of this fight is:

Will Patrick Cummins be able to take Gian Villante down and keep him there?

Based on my research I don’t believe he can. I’ve watched 6 of Villante’s fights from the last few years, and I am impressed by his takedown defense. I am even more impressed by his ability to defend takedowns even when he is exhausted.

The reason why I believe Villante is a solid bet is quite simple. Patrick Cummins has absolutely no striking defense. I don’t understand how his reflexes are so slow, but he seems utterly incapable of blocking punches. Gian Villante has good striking and KO power. I don’t see how Cummins survives unless he can keep Villante on the ground for prolonged periods of time.

Another thing I want to address is Patrick Cummins’ wrestling…

When he first came to the UFC, he was branded as a high-level wrestler by the UFC marketing machine that wanted us to believe that he could outwrestle Daniel Cormier. Fast forward a few years and the level of wrestling he has shown us inside the Octagon is nowhere near the level of wrestling we were led to believe he was capable of.

If you go back and watch any of Cummins’ fights, you’ll see that he’s very slow at closing the distance and his takedown entries are very high. He has also lost all explosion in his takedown shots and he appears to find it difficult to get in deep and low on his opponent’s hips. I am guessing this is due to having injured knees.

This bet is a bit of a gamble, because it’s always possible that Villante could gas out and lose, but based on what I’ve seen in my research I believe that this bet is a risk worth taking.

Reasons for betting on Gian Villante to beat Patrick Cummins...

Gian Villante has excellent takedown defence having defended 80% of all takedowns across 15 fights under the ZUFFA banner.

Gian Villante still has solid takedown defence, even when he is exhausted.

Patrick Cummins’ reflexes appear to be totally shot. He is very slow and he cannot react to what his opponent is doing.

Patrick Cummins has some of the worst striking defence in the UFC.

Gian Villante has home advantage.

Patrick Cummins has taken a lot of damage in his UFC career because he is extremely easy to hit.

Patrick Cummins is very one dimensional. He has no Plan B and no way to win a fight if he cannot take his opponent down.

Risk factors with betting on Gian Villante to win...

Gian Villante has terrible cardio.

Patrick Cummins is extremely tough.

Patrick Cummins has a high level wrestling pedigree.

Our Betting Tip

Gian Villante to win

Stake

2 Units

[2% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.87
Moneyline = -115
Fractional = 87/100

53%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Gian Villante has a 53% chance of beating Patrick Cummins based on their current odds.

65%

Our Probability

We believe that Gian Villante has a 65% chance of beating Patrick Cummins based on our extensive research and analysis.

Jimmie Rivera vs Thomas Almeida Betting Tip and Prediction

This fight is another one of those situations where we need to take a calculated gamble to profit long term.

Jimmie Rivera is an excellent fighter, but he also has some significant weaknesses that Thomas Almeida can exploit.

If you go and watch any of Rivera’s fights, you’ll see that he’s tentative and many of his strikes fall short. Strikes falling short seem to be a big problem for Rivera, and I guess it’s because he is very small for the Bantamweight division at just 5 ft 4. Rivera’s short, compact frame also means that he’ll be giving up a 4-inch reach advantage to Almeida.

This reach disadvantage could be a critical deciding factor in this matchup because Rivera tends to get hit a lot when he enters into Boxing range. Close range is where Almeida tends to be the most dangerous and his reach advantage will make it easier for him to land big strikes on Rivera from positions where Rivera cannot counter. Thomas Almeida is also one of those fighters who can fight very long, and the reach advantage will amplify this deadly weapon.

I do like how Rivera does an excellent job of using footwork and feints to keep his opponent’s guessing, but he doesn’t land that many strikes and the ones he does land don’t have that much power on them. In contrast, Almeida lands a very high volume of strikes per round, and he also does a good job of cutting off the Octagon while trying to drown his opponent’s in pressure. Almeida lands around 30% more strikes per round, so he should be able to win if he can avoid getting taken down or finished.

I believe that Almeida will use his pressure and chaotic style of fighting to draw Rivera into wild exchanges and when that happens, I see Almeida being the fighter who inflicts more damage. I don’t personally believe Rivera has the power to hurt Almeida and while I wouldn’t be at all if he surprised if he proved me wrong, based on what I’ve seen in his past few fights, I am not at all concerned with his punching power.

The big risk in betting on Thomas Almeida to beat Jimmie Rivera is Almeida’s lack of takedown defense, but I don’t believe that this will play a huge part in this fight because Almeida does a great job of scrambling back to his feet, and Rivera doesn’t use his wrestling that much.

The main reason why I believe Almeida is a good bet is that he can put Rivera in positions where Rivera will feel very uncomfortable.

Almeida does a great job of throwing strikes at weird angles that you don’t see coming, and he also circles out of danger and moves in a way that enables him to generate an incredible amount of force when he springs forward with an attack. His approach to striking is very similar to Dominick Cruz’s, in that he uses footwork to move in weird patterns before stepping off at weird angles to catch his opponent’s cold. Cruz is the master of this style of fighting, but Almeida also does an excellent job of springing forward and landing devastating power strikes from very awkward and unpredictable angles.

Almeida’s style may look chaotic, but he is a brilliant tactician. If you go back and watch any of his recent fights, you’ll see that he tries to draw his opponent’s into chaotic exchanges so that he can land his unorthodox strikes from angles that his opponent’s never see coming.

Almeida thrives in chaotic exchanges, and I don’t believe Rivera will have that much success when the leather starts to fly. Based on what I’ve seen he’s too small, and he doesn’t hit hard enough to keep Almeida at bay.

This is a bit of a gamble, but at the current odds I do believe that win or lose Almeida is a great value bet.

Reasons for betting on Thomas Almeida to beat Jimmie Rivera...

Jimmie Rivera is very small for the division at just 5 ft 4, which means Thomas Almeida will have a significant size and reach advantage of 4 inches.

Jimmie Rivera is tentative.

Thomas Almeida lands 30% more strikes per round.

Jimmie Rivera gets hit a lot in Boxing range. This is the range in which Almeida thrives. Almeida can land a significant amount of damage in Boxing range.

Jimmie Rivera lacks the power in his hands to back Almeida up.

Thomas Almeida fights very long, which will amplify the size and reach advantage that he has over Jimmie Rivera.

Thomas Almeida does a great job of moving in weird patterns so that he can uncork attacks from unorthodox angles that his opponent’s don’t see coming.

Almeida can remain calm in moments of chaos. This enables him to recover very quickly when he gets hurt or if he exerts a lot of energy going for a finish. Based on what I’ve seen in his past fights it’s very unlikely that he would ever suffer from an Adrenaline Dump. His cardio is excellent.

Thomas Almeida will force Jimmie Rivera to engage. When this happens I believe Almeida will be the fighter who does the most damage.

Most of the punches that Rivera throws fall short or they don’t land with that much power.

Thomas Almeida throws a very wide range of strikes. He does a great job of throwing punches, kicks, knees and elbows from a wide variety of different positions and angles.

Thomas Almeida does a good job of scrambling back to his feet when he gets taken down.

Risk factors with betting on Thomas Almeida to win...

Jimmie Rivera will have home advantage.

Jimmie Rivera has excellent footwork, feints and technical striking.

Jimmie Rivera has strong wrestling. If he turns up with cardio for 3 rounds and a wrestling heavy gameplan he should be able to beat Almeida relatively easily.

Our Betting Tip

Thomas Almeida to win

Stake

2 Units

[2% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.65
Moneyline = +165
Fractional = 33/20

38%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Thomas Almeida has a 38% chance of beating Jimmie Rivera based on their current odds.

60%

Our Probability

We believe that Thomas Almeida has a 60% chance of beating Jimmie Rivera based on our extensive research and analysis.

Chris Weidman vs Kelvin Gastelum Betting Tip and Prediction

I don’t usually tip prop bets because the betting limits are usually very small, but I’ve just managed to bet £500 on Gastelum vs Weidman to finish INSIDE the distance, which means the betting limits on this particular prop appear to be very high compared to usual.

Based on my research I feel like this fight is 50 / 50. There are only two ways that it could play out…

We’re either going to see Chris Weidman expose Gastelum’s weak takedown defense and extremely low-level ground game and submit him or TKO him with ground and pound in either round 1 or 2.

Or…

We’re going to see Kelvin Gastelum weather the early storm and take over later on in the fight when Weidman starts to get tired. Weidman has gassed out by the 3rd round in his last 3 fights, so I don’t see him being able to survive 25 minutes without Gastelum getting a TKO finish.

Which scenario will play out is extremely difficult to predict based on the information we have to work with, but no matter who wins, I see this fight ending inside the distance.

Reasons for betting on this fight to end inside the distance...

Chris Weidman no longer has the cardio to keep up with Kelvin Gastelum for 25 minutes.

Kelvin Gastelum has no takedown defence. It is extremely unlikely he will be able to stop Weidman from taking him down in the first few rounds.

Kelvin Gastelum has an extremely low level ground game. He consistently makes very big mistakes on the ground that will cost him against a high level grappler like Weidman.

Chris Weidman is a two time NCAA Div 1 all American. He should be able to take Kelvin Gastelum down relatively easily.

Chris Weidman has a huge size advantage over Kelvin Gastelum.

Chris Weidman is a Renzo Gracie Black Belt in BJJ.

Kelvin Gastelum does an excellent job of drowning his opponent’s with a pressure based Boxing style.

Kelvin Gastelum is very aggressive and fights at a high pace. He will not give Weidman a chance to recover if Weidman starts to get tired.

Chris Weidman has declined significantly since USADA came into effect.

Risk factors with betting on this fight to end inside the distance...

Weidman and Gastelum are both extremely tough.

Anything can happen in MMA.

Our Betting Tip

Fight DOES NOT go the distance

Stake

3.5 Units

[3.5% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.53
Moneyline = -189
Fractional = 53/100

65%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that this fight has a 65% chance of finishing inside the distance based on their current odds.

80%

Our Probability

We believe that this fight has an 80% chance of finishing inside the distance based on our extensive research and analysis.

3 Comments

I am also a member of Furys fight picks and find the contrast in bets interesting, i love your super detailed breakdowns of the fights, i have followed your analysis of the Weidman/Gastelum comments in your chat room, and see you may have already come to the conclusion, that it is a 60/40 bet in favour of Weidman and you may indeed pass on this one, Luca Fury is however confident that Gastelum will win and that is his Final paid pick in this match up. He normally wagers around £15-£20K per bet so he must be reasonably confident, it would be interesting to know how you come to a 60/40 conclusion as like you i believe Weidman has not faded, in fact he was Winning the Mousasi fight until Dan Miragliotta made his mistake in calling Accidental Illegal knees’s from Mousasi therby stopping the fight. I think he would have gone on to win that fight but we will never really know. Certainly when you look up the official Judges score card it was Weidman 10-9 for round 1. he was dominating Romero until the knee and made a mistake with the wheel Kick in the Rockhold fight, would you let me know your thoughts if you have time. I did make a tidy profit from your live bets is UFC Glasgow on Calvillo, many thanks, kind regards, Tony.

Your SUMMARY:
Weidman mounted Belford, Mousasi with higher level than Gastelum on the ground and Weidman has decent ground and pound.

Weidman is a longer fighter making the Sub easier and is a Renzo Gracie Black Belt with NCAA DIV1 wrestling skills
Weidman has been supplementing his training at Serra Longo camp with John Danaher, these trainers must know he needs to work on his cardio with a 5 rounder as his next fight or look to finish the fight inside 2 rounds.

Weidman has 10-12 minutes to mount Gastelum who has low 63 percent TDD (average at best) and Gastelum has no ground game, Weidman must know he needs an early finish and must Sub or G&P, him.

Weidman still is the bigger fighter 6’2″ against 5’9″ boxer with no ground game.

Look at Gastelum record and look at the most talented fighter in his career that he actually beat, Jake Ellenberger ! ?