At the end of 2011, almost all European countries were on track towards their Kyoto targets for 2008–2012. The EU‑15 is on track towards this 8 % reduction target, compared to base-year levels under the Kyoto Protocol.
Projections from EU Member States indicate that their emissions outside the EU ETS will be lower than their national targets set under the Climate and Energy Package. Total EU emissions are projected to fall slightly until 2020. With the current set of national domestic measures in place, Member States are expected to reach a level in 2020 which is 19 % below 1990 levels and close to the 20 % reduction target.

Key messages

At the end of 2011, almost all European countries were on track towards their Kyoto targets for 2008–2012. The EU‑15 is on track towards this 8 % reduction target, compared to base-year levels under the Kyoto Protocol.

Projections from EU Member States indicate that their emissions outside the EU ETS will be lower than their national targets set under the Climate and Energy Package. Total EU emissions are projected to fall slightly until 2020. With the current set of national domestic measures in place, Member States are expected to reach a level in 2020 which is 19 % below 1990 levels and close to the 20 % reduction target.

What progress is made towards the greenhouse gas emissions targets by the EU?

Absolute and relative gaps between average 2008–2011 non‑ETS emissions and Kyoto target for non‑ETS sectors

Note: * 'EU‑15 (no over achievement)' corresponds to the situation of the EU‑15 where all surplus Kyoto units from target over achievement in the EU‑15 are not taken into account, to reflect the possibility that Member States with a surplus could use any remaining allowances for their own purposes and not necessarily make them available to compensate for Member States with a shortfall.
Subsequent to the effect of allocation of allowances to the EU ETS, the target and annual emissions are those of the sectors not covered by the EU ETS. The target for non-ETS sectors corresponds to the difference between the initial permissible emissions and the amount of allowances allocated under the EU ETS.
A positive value indicates a country for which average 2008–2011 non‑ETS emissions were lower than the annual target.
The assessment is based on average 2008–2011 emissions and the planned use of flexible mechanisms, as well as the expected effect of LULUCF activities.
EU‑15 values are the sum of the gaps/surplus for the 15 EU Member States party to Burden-Sharing Agreement.
For Croatia, Iceland and Switzerland, total emissions are used as they have currently no installations under the EU ETS.

Actual progress of the EU‑15 towards its burden-sharing target in absolute and relative terms

Note:The X-axis (0 % line) corresponds to the achievement of the EU-15 reduction target under the Kyoto Protocol (– 8 % compared to base-year emissions).
Positive values correspond to contributions to the achievement of the EU-15 Kyoto target, while negative values represent shortfalls.
The difference between target and GHG emissions concerns the sectors not covered by the EU ETS, which represent the right emissions and target to consider for the assessment of actual progress towards Kyoto targets.

Projected gaps between 2020 GHG emissions and national targets in sectors not covered by the EU ETS

Note:Progress calculated based on domestic emissions only, without accounting for possible use of flexibility options. The 2020 targets and 2005 non‑ETS emissions are all consistent with 2013–2020 ETS scope, i.e. they take into account the extension of the ETS scope in 2013 and the unilateral inclusion of installation in 2008–2012. Relative gaps are calculated as a ratio between the difference (projected non‑ETS 2020 emissions – estimates of 2020 targets under the ESD) and EEA estimates of 2005 non‑ETS emissions consistent with 2013–2020 ETS scope

Twenty-five EU Member States (all except Cyprus and Malta), Croatia, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland have individual GHG reduction targets under the KP. The EU‑15, i.e. the 15 pre-2004 EU Member States, has a common target to be achieved collectively under the 'burden-sharing agreement'. This agreement sets differentiated emission reduction targets for each EU‑15 Member State.

At the end of 2011, almost all European countries were on track towards their Kyoto targets for 2008–2012. The EU‑15 is on track towards this 8 % reduction target, compared to base-year levels under the KP. The combined performance of all EU‑15 Member States resulted in an overachievement of approximately 211 Mt CO2-equivalent per year (a quantity which represents 4.9 % of the EU‑15's base year emissions).

The gaps (absolute and relative) between the average non ETS emissions and Kyoto target for non ETS in the period 2008-2011 is presented in Figure 1.

Aggregated average non-ETS emissions from EU‑15 Member States from 2008 to 2011, without the use of carbon sinks and flexible mechanisms, were lower than the relevant EU‑15 target by 71.5 Mt CO2-eq. per year, which represents 1.7 % of total EU‑15 base‑year emissions. Carbon sink activities are expected to contribute towards an additional emission reduction of 58 Mt CO2-equivalent per year (1.4 % of EU‑15 base‑year emissions). The use of the KP's flexible mechanisms by ten EU‑15 Member States is expected to increase the overall emission budget by 84 Mt CO2‑equivalent per year (2.0 % of EU‑15 base‑year emissions). However, to ensure that EU-15 reaches its common target, all Member States must achieve their respective burden-sharing target as the excess Kyoto units resulting from overachievement by some countries might not be available to the EU-15 for achieving compliance.

Figure 2 presents the actual progress of the EU-15 in absolute and relative terms, highlighting the share of non ETS emissions, the use of flexible mechanisms and the use of carbon sink activities and international emission credits.

Projected progress towards 2020 targets

The 2020 unilateral 20% GHG reduction target corresponds to a 14% decrease in GHG emissions between 2005 and 2020. This target was divided into two sub-targets: a 21% reduction target for emissions covered by the EU-ETS and a 10% reduction target for the remaining non-ETS emissions. The Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) established the national emission targets not covered by EU ETS.

Projections from EU Member States indicate that their emissions outside the EU ETS will be lower than their national targets set under the Climate and Energy Package. Total EU emissions are projected to fall slightly until 2020.

With the current set of national domestic measures in place, Member States are expected to reach a level in 2020 which is 19 % below 1990 levels and close to the 20 % reduction target.

At national level, projections show that thirteen Member States could achieve their individual 2020 targets in the sectors not covered by the EU ETS with the current set of domestic policies and measures. Eight additional Member States would achieve their target through the implementation of additional measures. The remaining six Member States would not achieve their targets through domestic emission reductions alone, even if the currently planned measures were to be implemented. These Member States could still meet their national 2020 targets through the use of flexibility options provided by the ESD, whereby transfers of annual emissions allocations between years and between Member States are allowed, as well as the limited use of project-based credits from two of the KP flexible mechanisms, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and the Joint Implementation (JI).

Figure 3 provides the projected gaps between 2020 GHG emissions and national targets in non ETS-sectors.

Indicator specification and metadata

Indicator definition

This indicator illustrates the projected trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in relation to the EU and Member State targets, using existing policies and measures and/or additional policies and/or use of Kyoto mechanisms. The greenhouse gases are those covered by the Kyoto Protocol (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, HFCs and PFCs), weighed by their respective global warming potential, aggregated and presented in CO2-equivalent units.

Units

Million tonnes in CO2-equivalent

Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

Climate change is one of our greatest environmental, social and economic threats. The warming of the climate system is unequivocal, says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Observations show increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. It is very likely that most of the warming can be attributed to the emissions of greenhouse gases by human activities. Efforts to reduce or limit the effects of climate change are focused on limiting the emissions of all greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol.

The Kyoto Protocol requires the EC (consisting of the 15 Member States of before May 2004) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 8% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012. Most of the 10 new Member States have the same target. The target for Hungary and Poland is -6% while Cyprus and Malta are no Annex-I Parties to the UNFCCC and thus have no target.

In 2007, the EU committed to a unilateral 20% GHG reduction target, which corresponds to a 14% decrease in GHG emissions between 2005 and 2020. The EU Climate and Energy Package adopted in 2009 sets a legislative framework to achieve this objective in a two-fold way: a 21% reduction of emissions covered under the EU ETS compared to 2005 levels, to be achieved across the whole EU, and an effort to reduce emissions not covered by the EU ETS by about 10% compared to 2005 levels, shared between the EU 27 Member States through differentiated national GHG targets under the Effort Sharing Decision.

This indicator supports the EEA's annual report on greenhouse gas emission trends and projections, and the Commission's annual assessment of the actual and projected progress of Member States and the Community towards fulfilling their emission reduction commitments. These assessments also summarize any progress on Community policies and measures resulting from the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP).

The Commission's Progress Report towards achieving the Kyoto objectives in the EU and the individual Member States is required under the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism (Council Decision 280/2004/EC concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community GHG emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol).

Scientific references

Policy context and targets

Context description

The indicator is aimed to support the Commission's annual progress assessment of the EU and the Member States reduction of emissions towards achieving the Kyoto Protocol target under the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism (Council Decision 280/2004/EC)

Targets

For the EU-15 Member States, the targets are those set out in Council Decision 2002/358EC in which Member States agreed that some countries be allowed to increase their emissions, within limits, provided these are offset by reductions in others.

The EU-15 Kyoto Protocol target for 2008-2012 is a reduction of 8 % from 1990 levels for the basket of six greenhouse gases. For the new Member States, the candidate countries and other EEA member countries, the targets are included in the Kyoto Protocol.

Overview of national Kyoto targets (reduction from base year levels):

Kyoto Target 2008-2012

Austria

-13%

Belgium

-7.5%

Bulgaria

-8.0%

Croatia

-5.0%

Czech Republic

-8.0%

Cyprus

-

Denmark

-21.0%

Estonia

-8.0%

Finland

0%

France

0%

Germany

-21.0%

Greece

+25.0%

Hungary

-6.0%

Iceland

-10.0%

Ireland

+13.0%

Italy

-8.0%

Latvia

-8.0%

Liechtenstein

-8.0%

Lithuania

-8.0%

Luxembourg

-28.0%

Malta

-

Netherlands

-6.0%

Norway

1.0%

Poland

-6.0%

Portugal

+27.0%

Romania

-8.0%

Slovakia

-8.0%

Slovenia

-8.0%

Spain

+15.0%

Sweden

+4.0%

Turkey

-

United Kingdom

-12.5%

15 old EU Member States (EU15)

-8.0%

In 2007, the EU committed to a unilateral 20% GHG reduction target, which corresponds to a 14% decrease in GHG emissions between 2005 and 2020. The EU Climate and Energy Package adopted in 2009 sets a legislative framework to achieve this objective in a two-fold way: a 21% reduction of emissions covered under the EU ETS compared to 2005 levels, to be achieved across the whole EU, and an effort to reduce emissions not covered by the EU ETS by about 10% compared to 2005 levels, shared between the EU 27 Member States through differentiated national GHG targets under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD).

Related policy documents

Council Decision (2002/358/EC) of 25 April 2002 concerning the approval, on behalf of the European Community, of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the joint fulfilment of commitments thereunder.

Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the effort of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Community’s greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020

Decision No 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 February 2004 concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol

Methodology for gap filling

Methodology references

Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe
This EEA report presents an assessment of the current progress of EU Member States, EU candidate countries and other EEA member countries towards their respective targets under the Kyoto Protocol and the Effort Sharing Decision. This is based on their past greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 and the projected greenhouse gas emissions of these countries by 2020, derived from data and related information they provided to the European Commission.

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

The methodology proposed consists in simple additions of data reported by Member States. However, uncertainty arises from the following:

projections can be subject to updates which might not be reflected in the assessment if these updates were recently made;

the projections taken into account are fully consistent with MS submissions under the Monitoring Mechanism. However, other sets of projections with different data might have been published by countries (e.g. national allocation plans, national communications to UNFCCC).

Data sets uncertainty

Uncertainties in the projections of GHG emissions can be significant but have not been assessed. Several countries carry out sensitivity anaylses on their projections.