Instead of going to the expense of having an election, why don't we just do it by who Ras has ahead on the day we would otherwise have one. If we had an election where the results differed from Ras's numbers, it would be due to Dem fraud anyway. So we could at once save money and have an "honest" election. Cool!

They show things happening before they manifest themselves in an election. If the incumbent President had approval ratings in the 30s, then that would be evidence that he isn't up to the job and that the usual challenger would defeat him handily. Maybe he would spare himself the embarrassment of being trounced in an election.

Think of how unpopular such senators as Rick Santorum was in 2006 and Blanche Lincoln was in 2010.

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At this point in 1980, Carter lead Reagan by about 18 points.

1. That says much more about Ronald Reagan than about Ronald Reagan than about Jimmy Carter. Ronald Reagan was known as "the Great Communicator" for convincing people that he was right for the time.

2. Nobody could have predicted the Iranian hostage situation that slowly dragged down support for the President.

3. Jimmy Carter had won the Presidency in 1976 by putting together a Democratic coalition that included a large number of southern white people who are best described as the sorts who voted for George Wallace in 1968. Carter won a bunch of states that have never since voted for any Democratic nominee for President -- Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina. Carter won as a 'good 'ol boy" against a weak d@mnyankee incumbent who still won the "Rockefeller Republicans" . Reagan won those over while keeping the Rockefeller Republicans.

4. Generational change then favored Republicans about as it now favors Democrats. In 1980 the youngest voters were no longer Baby Boomers; they were Generation X which has shown itself one of the most conservative generations ever. They were much more conservative on economic issues and law-and-order than the generations that had the bulk of WWII, Korea, and Vietnam-era veterans. The generation then more conservative than Generation X was the Lost Generation born in the 19th Century. Elections are won on margins.

5. Presidential politics have practically inverted the reality of 1976. Jimmy Carter is the last Democratic President to have won despite losing California, Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, New Hampshire, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut, and New Jersey. If anything President Obama has done much to put together most parts of the Eisenhower coalition. Tellingly, Barack Obama won only one state (North Carolina) that Dwight Eisenhower ever lost.

6. The Romney-Reagan analogy is ludicrous. Mitt Romney is a trimming opportunist who has changed his views not so much to fit changing reality (which one would excuse) instead of someone who like Reagan convinced people that his austere conservatism would solve big problems. Mitt Romney has changed his tune as he finds a different audience, which is far less effective.

7. President Barack Obama is probably best described as a left-wing version of Ronald Reagan. If you thought that Ronald Reagan was the Great Communicator, then wait until you meet Barack Obama.

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Obama's only chance to be in the White House in February of next year is as a visitor.

Only in the event of

(1) a breaking scandal -- which would already manifest itself in polls because there would be indications in secretiveness and inexplicable eccentricities of policy-making

(2) a sudden economic meltdown for which there is no apparent cause -- as there is no speculative boom about to go bust that can devalue the assets of home owners or people recently snookered into buying securities

(3) a military or diplomatic debacle -- except that the President is very cautious, and he cooperates well with the armed forces and the intelligence agencies

(4) bungled treatment of a natural disaster -- just think of Hurricane Katrina. Except that President Obama has well treated tornado outbreaks for which there is no advanced warning.

Wise people do not bet on long-shots unless they see a huge bargain -- let's say a race horse that is given 100-1 chances that are really 20-1. I see the President having roughly 50-50 chances now in six of states (Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia) different enough that there is no appeal that wins them all without cutting into overall support for the President. Basically a model based on exact 50-50 chances in those states alone gives the President 63 chances in 64 of winning re-election. Something must change drastically for Mitt Romney to have a better chance.

Truly the gay marriage announcement has doomed Obama's hopes of re-election. Witness his seven po--- uh, one point statistically insignificant gain on Romney in Gallup's tracker.

It's almost as if the announcement will have a negligible effect!

The homophobes were never going to vote for President Obama anyway. But that said, President Obama consolidated some support that he might never have otherwise gotten.

In a narrow election something inconvenient but necessary can work. LGBT rights has become a positive issue in a bunch of states best described as moderate-to-liberal... Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, maybe Indiana and Florida...

GROW UP, AMERICA!

God really did make Adam and Steve and still loves them in knowledge of what they do with each other if He made them gay.

Truly the gay marriage announcement has doomed Obama's hopes of re-election. Witness his seven po--- uh, one point statistically insignificant gain on Romney in Gallup's tracker.

It's almost as if the announcement will have a negligible effect!

The homophobes were never going to vote for President Obama anyway. But that said, President Obama consolidated some support that he might never have otherwise gotten.

In a narrow election something inconvenient but necessary can work. LGBT rights has become a positive issue in a bunch of states best described as moderate-to-liberal... Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, maybe Indiana and Florida...

GROW UP, AMERICA!

God really did make Adam and Steve and still loves them in knowledge of what they do with each other if He made them gay.

This might not directly effect politics, but the HIV/AIDS issue used to be a big concern in the gay community, but it seems in the past decade or so, with modern medicine and examples such as Magic Johnson surviving and living long lives, the threat of HIV is no longer an issue, at least it is no longer discussed as a medical threat in mainstream news. In addition sodomy laws are no longer criminalized. Anyone can justify two men or two women living together and getting financial benefits. But the act of two men having anal intercourse can be painful, not as natural as vaginal insemination, and medically dangerous to those people exposed to STD's and HIV. I doubt the USA will have an HIV outbreak like Africa, but I think Americans fear infection and death. Any media coverage of HIV outbreaks in the USA would decrease support for gay marriage.