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Overloaded! Crowded airline cabins reach new heights

Bill McGee, Special for USA TODAY
5:03 a.m. EDT June 5, 2013

As airlines pack more and more fliers into planes, the stakes are higher for consumers when flights are cancelled or delayed. Often there is no room for bumped fliers on the next flight.(Photo: Creatas Getty Images/Creatas RF)

Time and again, we've seen that good news for airline CEOs is often not necessarily good news for passengers. Consider the headline of this press release from the industry trade group Airlines for America in March: "U.S. Airlines Achieve 83% Passenger Load Factor, Highest Level Since 1945." A4A called this "efficient utilization of seating capacity" and boasted that more passengers are being boarded on fewer flights.

Airline execs used to speak of achieving "break-even" load factors, i.e., carrying more paying passengers than it costs to operate the flight. Today, however, it's not about breaking even, it's about cramming as many of us as possible into those cabins. And with the busy summer season officially upon us, get ready for what may be the ultimate squeeze.

Stuffed?

In many ways, the dramatic upsurge in the percentage of occupied seats has been one of the most important trend lines in a rapidly changing industry. But it's an issue that is rarely discussed outside airline boardrooms or Wall Street. Over the years I've touched on this topic, such as in 2012 when I asked, "Are airlines withholding seats so you'll pay a premium?" But it's important to put today's airline cabins in historical context.

During World War II, the military requisitioned more than half of the nation's civilian commercial fleet, and non-essential flying was practically eliminated. With the airlines serving as troop carriers, loads shot up to nearly 90% by 1945. (Even so, millions of World War II veterans, like my father, fought overseas without ever boarding a plane.) After the war, average loads slipped back to percentages in the high 50s and low 60s—and remained there for half a century, as Airlines for America statistics indicate.

This cabin squeezing has tremendously accelerated over the last decade. Even deregulation of the airline industry had little effect on loads for more than 15 years; except for one blip during the Korean War, we didn't reach an industry average of 65% until 1994. We hit 70% in 1997, then 75% in 2004. By 2009, loads had surpassed 80% and since then, the factors have been unprecedented:

2009 – 80.4%

2010 – 82.1%

2011 – 82.0%

2012 – 82.8%

It's worth noting that last year's system-wide average breaks down to 81.7% on international flights, but—ouch!—83.2% for domestic service.

Far-reaching effects

The fall-out from these record-setting loads is felt by all passengers, and in myriad ways involving everything from comfort to pricing to safety. Consider:

• Boarding headaches. In 2002, problems due to reservations/ticketing/boarding were the fourth most common category of passenger complaints, according to the DOT. But despite technological advancements, by 2012 such complaints ranked second only to flight problems. Among domestic carriers, last year United Airlines far and away led them all with 774 such complaints, more than four times the 181 complaints lodged against second-place American Airlines.

• Overhead bin shortages. After the industry began charging for first checked bags in the late 2000s, the great Struggle for Bin Space began—but woe to those who are the fifth or sixth or eighth passenger in a given row. Little wonder those boarding delays pile up.

• Uncomfortable seats. Plenty has been written about shrinking airline seats, particularly with some domestic flights offering just 28 inches of seat pitch legroom and 17.5 inches of width. But the virtual elimination of empty middle seats on many routes has only exacerbated such discomfort.

• Higher fares. Sure, the airlines will tell you that fuller planes mean there are more low fares available on each flight. But test out that theory the next time you try to book one of the last few available seats—no matter how far in advance.

These full airplanes also are contributing factors in countless in-flight disputes, and they certainly are systemic contributors to the inexcusable but rising number of air rage incidents. In short, packed airplanes are a key reason—perhaps the key reason—commercial flying has become so unpleasant for so many.

As a former flight operations manager from a time when average loads hovered at about 61%, I don't envy today's dispatchers, aircraft schedulers, crew schedulers and flight operations personnel who now face mini-meltdowns every time a flight faces a lengthy delay or cancellation. It's one thing that there are fewer "spare" aircraft and crews to operate relief flights, but now subsequent flights are often too full to accommodate displaced passengers.

Think about it. Whether it's buses or trains or airplanes, all transportation systems theoretically are designed to accommodate irregular operations, but if every flight is full or nearly full, the accommodation process collapses—and cable news crews are soon filming passengers sleeping on airport terminal floors. When I interviewed industry experts about this for my book Attention All Passengers, many told me the system already had surpassed its breaking point.

And there are other residual effects to consider—some of them quite serious. The lack of an empty middle seat means more and more families and travel companions are separated in the cabin, and flight attendants have told me that increasingly this means children are seated nowhere near their parents or caregivers. What's more, at one time those who wanted to do the right thing by using a child restraint system for kids under 2 could count on an empty airline seat to secure the device, but today the odds are slim that there will be one.

Last month I was on a flight in which a passenger was unable to comply with the exit-row requirements and needed to be moved to another row—only there was no empty seat available, so quite a bit of shuffling was required before we could depart. I've also spoken to safety experts who worry that fuller aircraft are harder to evacuate in life-threatening situations. Of course, the certification process assumes that a plane is fully occupied when egress is evaluated, but real-world scenarios rarely emulate testing, and now the margins of error are thinner than ever.

The most crowded airlines

So which carriers are fuller than others? Here's a rundown of what mainline cabins looked like on U.S. airlines in 2012 (using data from the individual airlines):

89.0% Frontier

86.6% Alaska

85.3% Delta

85.2% Spirit

84.1% US Airways

83.8% JetBlue

83.2% Hawaiian

82.9% United

82.8% American

80.3% Southwest

79.0% Virgin America

Those are unprecedented statistics for the U.S. airline industry, and even the "best" choices for passengers are flights with four out of five seats occupied on average.

At many airlines—including American, United and US Airways—cabins on domestic flights were even more crowded last year. However, statistics indicate the majors' mainline cabins are fuller than their regional carriers' airplanes. Load factors for 2012 indicate American's regional partners were nearly eight points less crowded on average; the regionals were not as full for Alaska, Delta and United as well.

Two key points: Average factors in the mid-to-high 80s mean an awful lot of flights are operating at 100%. And some statistics capture only revenue passengers, so many loads are even higher due to non-revenue travelers such as employees, dependents and deadheading crewmembers (when they can get onboard). As for empty middle seats, each load factor point increase means there is more three-abreast, four-abreast and five-abreast occupancy.

Fighting the crowds

As airplane cabins bulge, here are a few things to keep in mind:

• International routes tend to have lower average load factors than domestic routes, and there are other silver linings as well. Long-haul flights usually are operated by larger aircraft, often widebodies, and overall the seating is more comfortable. And even in economy class there usually is no fee for the first checked bag, so that can help mitigate the cramped overhead bin factor.

• If you're at all concerned about overcrowded seats, visit SeatGuru to compare and contrast cabin comfort.

• Selecting seat assignments is harder than ever with fuller cabins; if you can't choose a seat online, consider employing 19th-century technology by telephoning reservations (I recently did this and scored an aisle seat at no extra charge).

• Boarding late is no longer an option if you don't have a seat assignment or want overhead bin space, so make sure you're prompt to the gate.

Bill McGee, a contributing editor to Consumer Reports and the former editor of Consumer Reports Travel Letter, is an FAA-licensed aircraft dispatcher who worked in airline operations and management for several years. Tell him what you think of his latest column by sending him an e-mail at USATODAY.com at travel@usatoday.com. Include your name, hometown and daytime phone number, and he may use your feedback in a future column.