DATE=12/21/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=ISRAEL / MILITARY
NUMBER=5-45075
BYLINE=MEREDITH BUEL
DATELINE=TEL AVIV
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: A new study says the balance of military power
between Israel and Syria enables Israeli leaders to
take calculated risks as they conduct negotiations on
a peace treaty between the two nations. The study
says Israel has an historic opportunity to make peace
with its neighbors. Correspondent Meredith Buel has
details from Tel Aviv.
TEXT: An annual report on the balance of military
power in the Middle East from the Jaffee Center for
Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, says Israel
has sufficient superiority in the region to agree to
significant concessions to make peace with its
neighbors.
The chairman of the Jaffee Center, Professor Shai
Feldman, says this year's study leads researchers to
two major conclusions involving the recently renewed
peace talks between Israel and Syria.
// FELDMAN ACT //
Essentially, Israel's overall strategic
situation provides it with a window of
opportunity to pursue the peace process. And
the second, which is really a subsidiary to it,
is that the specific balance of military forces
between Israel and Syria allows the Israeli
government to take calculated risks in
conducting the peace negotiations with Syria.
// END ACT //
The report says Syria's military forces have
considerably weakened in recent years in the air, on
land, and at sea.
The report concludes these weaknesses have resulted in
a decline in Syria's ability to launch an attack on
Israel and contributed to the Syrian government's
decision to resume political negotiations.
Professor Feldman of Tel Aviv University says the end
of the Cold War and the breakup of the Soviet Union
led to significant changes in the balance of military
power in the Middle East.
// FELDMAN ACT #2 //
There is no replacement for the Soviet Union as
an arms supplier in the terms that the Soviet
Union supplied massive quantities of arms to
Arab countries. And there is no substitute for
the Soviet Union as a prime guarantor of Arab
regimes to the same extent that the Soviet Union
was able to guarantee the regime in Damascus.
And therefore, the Syrians could know if they
start a war and it goes badly the Soviets could
intervene on their behalf and save the regime.
The Soviet Union is no longer there and there
has been no substitute for the Soviet role in
the region.
// END ACT //
/// BEGIN OPT ///
Mr. Feldman says there are still concerns about Iran
and Iraq trying to develop weapons of mass
destruction, but he says these efforts are not likely
to affect the balance of military power over the next
few years.
/// FELDMAN ACT #3 // OPT ACT ///
In the realm of ballistic missiles, in the realm
of chemical weapons, in the realm of nuclear
programs, these efforts have not developed as
rapidly as people feared they would a few years
ago. Therefore, one has to say particularly in
terms of the ability to develop massive
capabilities in ballistic missiles or in nuclear
programs that the overall equation has not yet
turned against Israel and the window is still
open.
// END ACT // END OPT //
Mr. Feldman says the opportunity for Israel to make
peace with its neighbors will only be open for a
limited period of time.
// FELDMAN ACT #4 //
For now the region remains stable. There are no
serious threats, no serious threats to Israel's
survival and security and consequently the
bottom line is that we have a window of
opportunity there. The window of opportunity is
not measured in weeks or months. It is probably
measured in a few years. It is not going to
remain indefinitely open and so it provides
Israel with both an opportunity but also a sense
of urgency to try to exploit that window as long
as it remains open.
// END ACT //
Mr. Feldman warned that countries falling behind
Israel could resort to other military responses such
as purchasing surface-to-surface missiles, trying to
obtain weapons of mass destruction, and supporting
terrorism.
But he says because of the current balance of power in
the Middle East, Israel now has a chance to resolve
peacefully the conflict with its Arab neighbors.
(SIGNED)
NEB/MB/GE/RAE
21-Dec-1999 11:16 AM EDT (21-Dec-1999 1616 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
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