Evan Silva

Matchups

Matchups: Blount Force

Forward-thinking owners having been eyeing LeGarrette Blount's cakewalk late-season schedule for sometime, and it can't hurt that he's on fire heading in. Blount has amassed 313 yards on his last 60 carries (5.22 YPC) and totaled 272 yards in his last two games. He also set career highs in receptions and receiving yards in Week 12. Against a pathetic Panthers run defense, there are only four backs I'd play over Blount among this week's post-Thursday games: 1) Ray Rice 2) Arian Foster 3) Frank Gore and 4) Matt Forte. ... Josh Freeman was limited in practice this week with a shoulder injury, and it's reasonable to believe the Bucs will err on the side of caution with a run-heavy game plan versus Carolina. Freeman, who didn’t resume throwing until Friday, has shown no signs of breaking out of his funk. In his last four games, Freeman is 117-of-192 (60.9%) for 1,256 yards (6.54 YPA), and a 7:10 TD-to-INT ratio with an 11th turnover on a lost fumble. Freeman is merely a two-QB league option.

Mike Williams South has picked up his play recently, scoring in back-to-back games and clearing 80 yards in both. His mini-hot run figures to end Sunday against Panthers shutdown cornerback Chris Gamble. In the midst of perhaps the finest season of his career, Gamble has allowed just 17-of-40 passes (42.5%) against him to be complete this year, according to Pro Football Focus. The 17 completions have gone for 210 yards (5.25 YPA), and Gamble has been burned for only one touchdown all season. He has consistently shadowed No. 1 wide receivers. ... It's probably going to be a quiet day for the entire Bucs passing attack on Sunday. Dezmon Briscoe and Preston Parker have been complete non-factors of late, and Arrelious Benn actually finished Week 12 with negative yards. Blount is Tampa Bay's only surefire fantasy starter in Week 13.

The Bucs are getting slaughtered in the running game without key front-four starters DT Gerald McCoy (biceps, I.R.) and LE Michael Bennett (groin). In McCoy's five missed games so far, Bears, Packers, Saints, Texans, and Titans backs have torched Tampa for 677 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on 122 carries (5.55 YPC). The Bucs may have single-handedly helped turn around Chris Johnson's season in Week 12. While neither DeAngelo Williams nor Jonathan Stewart can be counted on for more than 15 touches Sunday -- they're averaging 10.8 and 11.7 per game, respectively, both are worth strong flex consideration due to the mouth-watering matchup. ... The Bucs' soft front seven also bodes well for Cam Newton's fantasy outlook because he's averaging nearly eight rushing attempts a week and will continue to be the favorite for red-zone scores in Carolina's backfield. Tampa Bay has surrendered the third-most rushing touchdowns in football.

Newton's target distribution since Carolina's Week 9 bye: Steve Smith 25, Greg Olsen 23, Legedu Naanee 18, Stewart 17, Brandon LaFell 13, Williams 2. ... The targets are there for Olsen, but the production hasn't been with no scores since Week 8 and four consecutive games under 50 yards. Unless a player is nursing an undisclosed injury, these things tend to even out. Unfortunately, this will be a tough matchup for Olsen. Over the past three weeks, Tampa has held Packers, Texans, and Titans tight ends to nine receptions, 104 yards, and one touchdown. It's a per-game average of 34.7 yards on three catches. ... Smith's production has slowed since the bye with Panthers OC Rob Chudzinski stressing the run game more. Whereas Carolina passed on 58.4% of its plays in the first nine games, the percentage has dropped to 51.6% over the last two. The ratio can be heavily impacted by game flow, of course, and the Cam-to-Smiff combo can be at its most lethal off play-action, when defenses are worried about the run. Smith will bounce back soon, and it will be big when he does. ... LaFell played ahead of Naanee for the first time this season in Week 12, but finished with just 46 yards on six targets. LaFell's promotion may have only been temporary, as Naanee missed practice all week with Achilles' tendinitis. LaFell could be a WR3/4 stretch-run asset if he's formally overtaken Naanee, but we need to see it official before he's a confident fantasy option.

Score Prediction: Panthers 24, Bucs 17

Tennessee @ Buffalo

C.J. Spiller failed to break tackles and stutter-stepped at the line in his first start of the season, but he's got a good-looking follow-up matchup. Over the past two weeks, Tennessee's defense has been softened up by Bucs and Falcons big backs LeGarrette Blount (6'0/247), Michael Turner (5'10/244), and Jason Snelling (5'11/234) for 283 yards on 53 touches with a combined 4.46 YPC average. The Titans now rank 22nd against the run. Spiller is unlikely to emerge as a long-term feature back because his game lacks physicality, but he's well worth an RB2/flex start this week. The Bills face San Diego (No. 25 run defense) and Denver (No. 19) in Weeks 14 and 16, so this game may go a long way toward telling whether Spiller can be a bankable fantasy-playoffs option. ... Rookie Johnny White is no threat to Spiller's workload yet, receiving fewer Week 12 carries than waiver pickup Tashard Choice. Choice, who is terrible, lost five and three yards on his two rushing attempts. ... The Bills' wideout injuries have continued to result in an increased role for TE Scott Chandler. A part-timer earlier in the year, Chandler has played 127-of-144 snaps (88.2%) over the last two games, finishing each with at least five receptions. Chandler, used primarily as a slot receiver, is one of my favorite Week 13 breakout candidates. Over their last eight games, the Titans have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends and 563 yards on 46 receptions. It's an average weekly line of nearly 5-71-1 over a sustained stretch. This is an excellent matchup for Chandler.

Here is Ryan Fitzpatrick's target distribution since Buffalo's Week 7 bye: Stevie Johnson 41, David Nelson 29, Chandler 21, Brad Smith 14, Spiller 10, Naaman Roosevelt 7. ... Keep in mind that 13 of Chandler's 21 targets have come in the last two games and he's caught 11 of them. His role is clearly on the rise. ... Roosevelt's impending return from a shoulder injury will cut into Smith's playing time. Smith is not a fluid, natural receiver and is best utilized as a gadget guy. ... Nelson is efficient in the slot, hauling in 18 of the 29 intended passes. While always a fair bet to find pay dirt as a 6-foot-5 red-zone threat, Nelson has cleared 50 yards once in the last eight games and lacks fantasy upside. ... Nelson will likely tangle with Titans top CB Cortland Finnegan for more snaps in this game than Johnson because Finnegan covers the slot when opponents use three- and four-wide sets. The Bills are featuring Johnson in the passing game. ... Fitzpatrick has only one 300-yard game this season and the Titans play even better pass defense than their No. 13 ranking suggests. It's a tough matchup for a weak-armed quarterback.

The Titans don't face a run defense ranked higher than 17th in their next three games, and Chris Johnson is preying on weak opposition. In seven matchups with top-20 run defenses, Johnson has managed just 244 yards on 95 carries (2.57 YPC) with a pathetic 34.9 per-game average. In four games against bottom-five run defenses, Johnson has 455 yards on 87 attempts (5.23 YPC). The Bills rank 22nd in run defense, so this is another favorable matchup. The Titans should also keep the game close or maintain a lead because of their superior defense. Johnson projects to offer plenty of volume. Javon Ringer is averaging seven touches a game over the past month. ... Jared Cook is always a roll of the dice because he's less than a 60% player, but the matchup couldn't be better. In their last nine games, the Bills have yielded 49 receptions for 632 yards and seven touchdowns to tight ends, good for nearly a six-catch, 71-yard weekly average. I like Chandler a bit better than Cook in this particular game, but they're both quality fall-back tight end options.

The Bills are routinely slaughtered by the pass, having allowed an AFC-high 21 passing scores while managing the second fewest sacks in football. Maybe they should have hung onto Aaron Maybin, after all. Unfortunately, the Titans' passing game lacks any threat of explosiveness with Matt Hasselbeck at the helm. Despite favorable matchups with the Falcons (No. 26 pass defense) and Bucs (No. 30), Hasselbeck is just 32-of-59 (54.2%) for 284 yards (4.81 YPA) in his last two games while playing with a sore throwing elbow. This overall lack of passing game production kills the fantasy upside of pass catchers like Nate Washington and Damian Williams. It is perhaps notable that Williams has been targeted by Hasselbeck more often than Washington recently.

Score Prediction: Bills 20, Titans 16

Indianapolis @ New England

Vegas oddsmakers have the Patriots as 20-point favorites in this game, clearly anticipating a big, early lead for New England. It's a matchup that sets up well for BenJarvus Green-Ellis. When the Pats have won by a touchdown or more this season (seven-game sample), BJGE has scored all seven of his TDs and is averaging roughly 72 yards per game. When the Pats lose or win a tight one (four-game sample), Green-Ellis has zero touchdowns with a 40-yard average. He is a good bet to score against Indianapolis, and not just because the Colts rank 31st versus the run. ... Shane Vereen has seen a playing-time bump late in recent blowouts, but that work could just as easily go to Danny Woodhead, Green-Ellis, Kevin Faulk, or Stevan Ridley moving forward. Law Firm is New England's only viable fantasy back in Week 13. ... Tom Brady is the No. 2 overall fantasy quarterback. Start 'em. ... Rob Gronkowski is the No. 1 overall fantasy tight end. Start 'em. ... Wes Welker is the No. 2 overall receiver in standard leagues and No. 1 in PPR. Start him, too.

Aaron Hernandez isn't a tight end -- he's a yoked-up wideout -- and the Colts have been shredded by big, physical receivers all year. This might be Hernandez's best game yet. ... Deion Branch has a less attractive matchup against the Colts' small, quick corners. Branch's mere presence as a starting receiver in an extremely efficient, high-volume passing attack gives him week-to-week fantasy appeal, but he's just a WR3 option. ... Here is Brady's updated target distribution since the Pats' Week 7 bye: Gronkowski 46, Welker 41, Branch 34, Hernandez 28, Chad Ochocinco 8. Don't get cute thinking there are viable fantasy options in New England behind the big four there.

Backfield usage in Indianapolis and club president Bill Polian's recent comments point to Donald Brown sticking as the Colts' feature back going forward. Brown has 50 touches over the past three games, while Delone Carter has 10 (0 in Week 12) and Joseph Addai has received just seven (all in Week 12). According to Pro Football Focus, Brown has also played at least 45 snaps in each of the last three games. Addai returned from his hamstring injury/emergency back role to play 11 downs last Sunday. The Patriots field a top-12 run defense, but the playing time and touches are going to be there for Brown. He has also gained the Colts' trust in blitz pickup and will play in passing situations. Indy figures to have plenty of those playing from behind all day in Foxboro.

Orlovsky hasn't won a start since the 2004 Motor City Bowl. Don't think he will spark Indianapolis' pass catchers in fantasy. ... Here is Orlovsky's target distribution in three appearances as a Colt: Jacob Tamme 6, Reggie Wayne 5, Pierre Garcon 4, Austin Collie 3, Brody Eldridge 2, Brown 1. ... Two blown open-field tackles in the Panthers' secondary led to Wayne's 56-yard touchdown catch last week. It was Wayne's first TD since Week 1. The contract-year wideout has played this season with indifference, and I would bet against the big game being a sign of things to come. ... Desperate fantasy owners can try hoping that pass-heavy comeback mode and the Patriots' porous secondary spur Garcon and Tamme, assuming New England doesn't dominate time of possession. It'd be a risky, if relatively high-upside gamble. Garcon won't be dealing with Chris Gamble as he was last week, and Orlovsky has shown an obvious affinity for Tamme thus far.

Score Prediction: Patriots 42, Colts 17

1:00PM ET Games

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

Forward-thinking owners having been eyeing LeGarrette Blount's cakewalk late-season schedule for sometime, and it can't hurt that he's on fire heading in. Blount has amassed 313 yards on his last 60 carries (5.22 YPC) and totaled 272 yards in his last two games. He also set career highs in receptions and receiving yards in Week 12. Against a pathetic Panthers run defense, there are only four backs I'd play over Blount among this week's post-Thursday games: 1) Ray Rice 2) Arian Foster 3) Frank Gore and 4) Matt Forte. ... Josh Freeman was limited in practice this week with a shoulder injury, and it's reasonable to believe the Bucs will err on the side of caution with a run-heavy game plan versus Carolina. Freeman, who didn’t resume throwing until Friday, has shown no signs of breaking out of his funk. In his last four games, Freeman is 117-of-192 (60.9%) for 1,256 yards (6.54 YPA), and a 7:10 TD-to-INT ratio with an 11th turnover on a lost fumble. Freeman is merely a two-QB league option.

Mike Williams South has picked up his play recently, scoring in back-to-back games and clearing 80 yards in both. His mini-hot run figures to end Sunday against Panthers shutdown cornerback Chris Gamble. In the midst of perhaps the finest season of his career, Gamble has allowed just 17-of-40 passes (42.5%) against him to be complete this year, according to Pro Football Focus. The 17 completions have gone for 210 yards (5.25 YPA), and Gamble has been burned for only one touchdown all season. He has consistently shadowed No. 1 wide receivers. ... It's probably going to be a quiet day for the entire Bucs passing attack on Sunday. Dezmon Briscoe and Preston Parker have been complete non-factors of late, and Arrelious Benn actually finished Week 12 with negative yards. Blount is Tampa Bay's only surefire fantasy starter in Week 13.

The Bucs are getting slaughtered in the running game without key front-four starters DT Gerald McCoy (biceps, I.R.) and LE Michael Bennett (groin). In McCoy's five missed games so far, Bears, Packers, Saints, Texans, and Titans backs have torched Tampa for 677 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on 122 carries (5.55 YPC). The Bucs may have single-handedly helped turn around Chris Johnson's season in Week 12. While neither DeAngelo Williams nor Jonathan Stewart can be counted on for more than 15 touches Sunday -- they're averaging 10.8 and 11.7 per game, respectively, both are worth strong flex consideration due to the mouth-watering matchup. ... The Bucs' soft front seven also bodes well for Cam Newton's fantasy outlook because he's averaging nearly eight rushing attempts a week and will continue to be the favorite for red-zone scores in Carolina's backfield. Tampa Bay has surrendered the third-most rushing touchdowns in football.

Newton's target distribution since Carolina's Week 9 bye: Steve Smith 25, Greg Olsen 23, Legedu Naanee 18, Stewart 17, Brandon LaFell 13, Williams 2. ... The targets are there for Olsen, but the production hasn't been with no scores since Week 8 and four consecutive games under 50 yards. Unless a player is nursing an undisclosed injury, these things tend to even out. Unfortunately, this will be a tough matchup for Olsen. Over the past three weeks, Tampa has held Packers, Texans, and Titans tight ends to nine receptions, 104 yards, and one touchdown. It's a per-game average of 34.7 yards on three catches. ... Smith's production has slowed since the bye with Panthers OC Rob Chudzinski stressing the run game more. Whereas Carolina passed on 58.4% of its plays in the first nine games, the percentage has dropped to 51.6% over the last two. The ratio can be heavily impacted by game flow, of course, and the Cam-to-Smiff combo can be at its most lethal off play-action, when defenses are worried about the run. Smith will bounce back soon, and it will be big when he does. ... LaFell played ahead of Naanee for the first time this season in Week 12, but finished with just 46 yards on six targets. LaFell's promotion may have only been temporary, as Naanee missed practice all week with Achilles' tendinitis. LaFell could be a WR3/4 stretch-run asset if he's formally overtaken Naanee, but we need to see it official before he's a confident fantasy option.

Score Prediction: Panthers 24, Bucs 17

Tennessee @ Buffalo

C.J. Spiller failed to break tackles and stutter-stepped at the line in his first start of the season, but he's got a good-looking follow-up matchup. Over the past two weeks, Tennessee's defense has been softened up by Bucs and Falcons big backs LeGarrette Blount (6'0/247), Michael Turner (5'10/244), and Jason Snelling (5'11/234) for 283 yards on 53 touches with a combined 4.46 YPC average. The Titans now rank 22nd against the run. Spiller is unlikely to emerge as a long-term feature back because his game lacks physicality, but he's well worth an RB2/flex start this week. The Bills face San Diego (No. 25 run defense) and Denver (No. 19) in Weeks 14 and 16, so this game may go a long way toward telling whether Spiller can be a bankable fantasy-playoffs option. ... Rookie Johnny White is no threat to Spiller's workload yet, receiving fewer Week 12 carries than waiver pickup Tashard Choice. Choice, who is terrible, lost five and three yards on his two rushing attempts. ... The Bills' wideout injuries have continued to result in an increased role for TE Scott Chandler. A part-timer earlier in the year, Chandler has played 127-of-144 snaps (88.2%) over the last two games, finishing each with at least five receptions. Chandler, used primarily as a slot receiver, is one of my favorite Week 13 breakout candidates. Over their last eight games, the Titans have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends and 563 yards on 46 receptions. It's an average weekly line of nearly 5-71-1 over a sustained stretch. This is an excellent matchup for Chandler.

Here is Ryan Fitzpatrick's target distribution since Buffalo's Week 7 bye: Stevie Johnson 41, David Nelson 29, Chandler 21, Brad Smith 14, Spiller 10, Naaman Roosevelt 7. ... Keep in mind that 13 of Chandler's 21 targets have come in the last two games and he's caught 11 of them. His role is clearly on the rise. ... Roosevelt's impending return from a shoulder injury will cut into Smith's playing time. Smith is not a fluid, natural receiver and is best utilized as a gadget guy. ... Nelson is efficient in the slot, hauling in 18 of the 29 intended passes. While always a fair bet to find pay dirt as a 6-foot-5 red-zone threat, Nelson has cleared 50 yards once in the last eight games and lacks fantasy upside. ... Nelson will likely tangle with Titans top CB Cortland Finnegan for more snaps in this game than Johnson because Finnegan covers the slot when opponents use three- and four-wide sets. The Bills are featuring Johnson in the passing game. ... Fitzpatrick has only one 300-yard game this season and the Titans play even better pass defense than their No. 13 ranking suggests. It's a tough matchup for a weak-armed quarterback.

The Titans don't face a run defense ranked higher than 17th in their next three games, and Chris Johnson is preying on weak opposition. In seven matchups with top-20 run defenses, Johnson has managed just 244 yards on 95 carries (2.57 YPC) with a pathetic 34.9 per-game average. In four games against bottom-five run defenses, Johnson has 455 yards on 87 attempts (5.23 YPC). The Bills rank 22nd in run defense, so this is another favorable matchup. The Titans should also keep the game close or maintain a lead because of their superior defense. Johnson projects to offer plenty of volume. Javon Ringer is averaging seven touches a game over the past month. ... Jared Cook is always a roll of the dice because he's less than a 60% player, but the matchup couldn't be better. In their last nine games, the Bills have yielded 49 receptions for 632 yards and seven touchdowns to tight ends, good for nearly a six-catch, 71-yard weekly average. I like Chandler a bit better than Cook in this particular game, but they're both quality fall-back tight end options.

The Bills are routinely slaughtered by the pass, having allowed an AFC-high 21 passing scores while managing the second fewest sacks in football. Maybe they should have hung onto Aaron Maybin, after all. Unfortunately, the Titans' passing game lacks any threat of explosiveness with Matt Hasselbeck at the helm. Despite favorable matchups with the Falcons (No. 26 pass defense) and Bucs (No. 30), Hasselbeck is just 32-of-59 (54.2%) for 284 yards (4.81 YPA) in his last two games while playing with a sore throwing elbow. This overall lack of passing game production kills the fantasy upside of pass catchers like Nate Washington and Damian Williams. It is perhaps notable that Williams has been targeted by Hasselbeck more often than Washington recently.

Score Prediction: Bills 20, Titans 16

Indianapolis @ New England

Vegas oddsmakers have the Patriots as 20-point favorites in this game, clearly anticipating a big, early lead for New England. It's a matchup that sets up well for BenJarvus Green-Ellis. When the Pats have won by a touchdown or more this season (seven-game sample), BJGE has scored all seven of his TDs and is averaging roughly 72 yards per game. When the Pats lose or win a tight one (four-game sample), Green-Ellis has zero touchdowns with a 40-yard average. He is a good bet to score against Indianapolis, and not just because the Colts rank 31st versus the run. ... Shane Vereen has seen a playing-time bump late in recent blowouts, but that work could just as easily go to Danny Woodhead, Green-Ellis, Kevin Faulk, or Stevan Ridley moving forward. Law Firm is New England's only viable fantasy back in Week 13. ... Tom Brady is the No. 2 overall fantasy quarterback. Start 'em. ... Rob Gronkowski is the No. 1 overall fantasy tight end. Start 'em. ... Wes Welker is the No. 2 overall receiver in standard leagues and No. 1 in PPR. Start him, too.

Aaron Hernandez isn't a tight end -- he's a yoked-up wideout -- and the Colts have been shredded by big, physical receivers all year. This might be Hernandez's best game yet. ... Deion Branch has a less attractive matchup against the Colts' small, quick corners. Branch's mere presence as a starting receiver in an extremely efficient, high-volume passing attack gives him week-to-week fantasy appeal, but he's just a WR3 option. ... Here is Brady's updated target distribution since the Pats' Week 7 bye: Gronkowski 46, Welker 41, Branch 34, Hernandez 28, Chad Ochocinco 8. Don't get cute thinking there are viable fantasy options in New England behind the big four there.

Backfield usage in Indianapolis and club president Bill Polian's recent comments point to Donald Brown sticking as the Colts' feature back going forward. Brown has 50 touches over the past three games, while Delone Carter has 10 (0 in Week 12) and Joseph Addai has received just seven (all in Week 12). According to Pro Football Focus, Brown has also played at least 45 snaps in each of the last three games. Addai returned from his hamstring injury/emergency back role to play 11 downs last Sunday. The Patriots field a top-12 run defense, but the playing time and touches are going to be there for Brown. He has also gained the Colts' trust in blitz pickup and will play in passing situations. Indy figures to have plenty of those playing from behind all day in Foxboro.

Orlovsky hasn't won a start since the 2004 Motor City Bowl. Don't think he will spark Indianapolis' pass catchers in fantasy. ... Here is Orlovsky's target distribution in three appearances as a Colt: Jacob Tamme 6, Reggie Wayne 5, Pierre Garcon 4, Austin Collie 3, Brody Eldridge 2, Brown 1. ... Two blown open-field tackles in the Panthers' secondary led to Wayne's 56-yard touchdown catch last week. It was Wayne's first TD since Week 1. The contract-year wideout has played this season with indifference, and I would bet against the big game being a sign of things to come. ... Desperate fantasy owners can try hoping that pass-heavy comeback mode and the Patriots' porous secondary spur Garcon and Tamme, assuming New England doesn't dominate time of possession. It'd be a risky, if relatively high-upside gamble. Garcon won't be dealing with Chris Gamble as he was last week, and Orlovsky has shown an obvious affinity for Tamme thus far.

Score Prediction: Patriots 42, Colts 17

Oakland @ Miami

Darren McFadden will miss a fifth consecutive game with a mid-foot sprain, leaving Michael Bush to take on his toughest matchup to date. In their last seven games, the Dolphins have allowed 532 yards on 152 carries (3.50 YPC) to enemy tailbacks, none of whom has scored. Bush can counter with heavy volume, of course. He's averaging 29 touches for 148 yards per start and has scored a touchdown in four straight. Bush is more of a high-end RB2 than top-five option this week, but he's still a must-start. Workloads like his are near impossible to come by. ... Brandon Myers and Kevin Boss are rotating at tight end, and neither has cleared receiving 40 yards since the season's first month. There's no fantasy value here. ... Raiders FB Marcel Reece has an extraordinary skill set as a 6-foot-3, 240-pound former college wide receiver. He ran 4.42 at the 2008 Washington Pro Day, with an impressive 9-foot-6 broad jump. The fact that Reece led the Raiders in Week 12 receiving (5-92) had more to do with the fact that Oakland was incredibly short-handed at wideout than Reece's emerging role, however. He's much more valuable in real life than fantasy football.

Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford's foot injuries have stripped Oakland's big-play ability, leading to a slowdown in Carson Palmer's production after his fast start as a Raider. Moore is tentatively due back this week, but got in little practice time and is officially a game-time decision. As the Raiders' flanker, Moore will likely spend most of this game in Dolphins LCB Vontae Davis' coverage. Davis held Dez Bryant to 35 yards on three catches in Week 12. It's a good week to wait and see on Moore, make him "prove" he's healthy, and possibly start him as a WR3 in a potential Week 14 shootout against the Packers. ... Ford, like McFadden, is believed to be targeting the Green Bay game to return from his foot sprain. Heyward-Bey will start at split end, but has not cleared 45 yards since Week 7 and would be a weak WR3 option, particularly if Moore plays. ... Miami's No. 24 pass-defense ranking suggests Palmer has a favorable matchup, but I'd be hard pressed to consider Palmer more than a high-end QB2 until his supporting cast returns at full strength.

After their fluky three-game win streak, the Dolphins' close Thanksgiving loss to Dallas provided an accurate glimpse of what to expect from Miami's skill players in the weeks ahead. Brandon Marshall racked up a team-high ten targets, while Brian Hartline was a distant second with five. Reggie Bush got 19 touches to Daniel Thomas' seven. Game flow can heavily impact usage and production, but on a weekly basis there are only two Dolphins worth consideration in standard fantasy leagues: Marshall and Bush. ... Marshall knows Raiders DBs Stanford Routt, Michael Huff, and Tyvon Branch well from their time together in the AFC West. In his last five meetings with Oakland, Marshall has posted rock-solid stat lines of 7-73-1, 5-67-1, 4-84, 5-82, and 6-67. It's an average of over five catches for 75 yards a game. He's a WR2. ... It's not breaking news that quarterbacks struggle when pressured, but Matt Moore gets more rattled than most. In four matchups this year with teams that rank in the top ten in sacks, Moore is 74-of-116 (63.8%) for 832 yards (7.17 YPA), three touchdowns, and six turnovers with seven fumbles. In his four other games, Moore is 64-of-103 (62.1%) for 775 yards (7.52 YPA) with six scores and three turnovers. He's fumbled twice, losing neither. Oakland ranks fifth in sacks, so if the trend holds Moore will struggle on Sunday. ... The Raiders can be beaten on the ground, where they rank 27th in rush defense and surrender a league-high 5.28 yards per carry. I'm not a long-term believer in Bush, but he has a plus Week 13 matchup and is the heavy favorite for touches in Miami's backfield.

Score Prediction: Raiders 23, Dolphins 17

Kansas City @ Chicago

Oakland was lucky to face turnover-prone Caleb Hanie in last week's game against the Bears, because Chicago's defense was stifling and it is becoming a trend. Over the last three games, opposing running backs have managed just 194 yards and one touchdown on 60 carries (3.23 YPC) against the Bears. Meanwhile, the Kansas City backfield has devolved into a three-way mess of ineffectiveness, suddenly led by Thomas Jones. That's right, the washed-up 33-year-old leads the Chiefs in carries over the past two games, and Dexter McCluster is second. Jackie Battle is third in line for rushing attempts and has all of two receptions since Week 5. It's hard to imagine using any of the three in a difficult matchup when none of them is a safe bet to exceed ten touches. For all of his PPR potential, McCluster has three catches over the past two weeks.

The Bears' run defense has come on lately, but their pass defense has been smothering for a more sustained stretch despite being matched up with one of the tougher pass-offense schedules in football. Over its last six games, Chicago has limited quarterbacks to 153-of-262 passing (58.4%) for 1,663 yards (6.35 YPA), five touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. The Chiefs are trying to be secretive about their Week 13 starting quarterback, but whomever it is will likely struggle. ... While Steve Breaston and Jonathan Baldwin's fantasy values have gone by the wayside since Matt Cassel's year-ending injury, Dwayne Bowe has done well to stay relevant with seven receptions a game. The first read on a heavy majority of Kansas City passing plays, Bowe will be a WR3 if Tyler Palko starts and a borderline WR2 if a stronger-armed Kyle Orton gets the nod.

The Bears made some tweaks to their post-Jay Cutler offense in Week 12, utilizing Matt Forte on perimeter run plays and Marion Barber as the primary inside ball carrier. Forte finished with "only" 18 touches in large part because of Hanie's three first-half picks. By the third quarter, the Bears were trailing 18-7, and Hanie threw 21 of his 36 passes in second-half comeback mode. Forte capitalized in PPR leagues with six receptions, but the carry total (12) was not a sign of things to come. While Barber's role has undoubtedly grown, expect Forte to approach 25-30 touches in Sunday's matchup with Kansas City's 26th-ranked run defense. The Bears will do their best to prevent Hanie from throwing so often going forward, and Forte will be the offensive centerpiece. ... Barber remains a TD-heavy league flex option only, but did show some spark with 63 yards on 10 rushing attempts in Week 12, including a 21-yard burst. Despite several short-yardage carries that lower his average, Barber has racked up a respectable 198 yards and three touchdowns on his last 48 runs (4.13 YPC). Barber will stay involved as a candidate for 8-11 touches per week.

The Bears again started Roy Williams over Johnny Knox against Oakland, but Knox was clearly Hanie's preferred option. Knox's ten targets tied Forte for the team lead, and according to Pro Football Focus, he played 56-of-70 snaps (80.0%). Knox showed his big-play ability on a 29-yard touchdown in the second quarter and a fourth-quarter 81-yard bomb to set up Kellen Davis' nine-yard score. The rubs are that Knox's playing time may have been inflated due to comeback mode, and Hanie is an unreliable passer. Upside isn't an issue, but Knox is a dice-roll WR3. ... Rather predictably, Bears slot receiver Earl Bennett has been rendered a non-factor in old college pal Cutler's absence. Hanie targeted Bennett only four times against the Raiders, and the two hooked up once for five yards. ... Hanie's garbage time-influenced Week 12 fantasy statistics don't look bad. He's got a big arm and might run faster in a straight line than Cutler. But the Bears are working against fantasy owners in that they want to minimize Hanie's impact on games. If you're starting Hanie in a fantasy league, you're essentially betting that Chicago will fall behind early.

Score Prediction: Bears 24, Chiefs 14

Denver @ Minnesota

These were the words of NFL Network's Mike Mayock on the Broncos' offense during an SI.com podcast this week: "It's forcing coordinators to make phone calls to their buddies in the college level to say, 'How do we deal with this?' ... It's forcing coordinators to completely rip up game plans and change the way they look at things in today's NFL. ... All 53 players on that roster believe in Tim Tebow. Until teams figure it out and shut him down, count me in. I believe in Tim Tebow." On a personal note, I'm unaware of a more intelligent, well-rounded football analyst than Mike Mayock. And in my fantasy league, I will be starting Tebow for a seventh straight week when he heads to Minnesota. ... The Vikings' defense poses an intriguing matchup for Tebow because it can stop the run but has no prayer against the pass. Decimated by injuries, Minnesota has lost top safety Husain Abdullah (concussion) and No. 1 corner Antoine Winfield (collarbone) to I.R. Promising CB Chris Cook remains out indefinitely on suspension, while third safety Tyrell Johnson (hamstring) joined Abdullah and Winfield on the shelf for good this week. NFL front sevens still haven't figured out how to stop Tebow's running game, and he's now facing easily the worst pass defense he's seen in 2011. In terms of fantasy scoring, this could be Tebow's biggest game yet.

Here is Tebow's target distribution on the season: Eric Decker 36, Eddie Royal 30, Demaryius Thomas 22, Matt Willis 11, Daniel Fells 9. ... Royal was spotted in a walking boot at the club facility this week and may not play. Royal's absence would likely thrust Thomas into the starting lineup. Decker has been the lone viable Denver wideout from a fantasy perspective, but Thomas offers difference-making talent and qualifies as a Week 13 sleeper. Facing an awful Minnesota secondary and a front seven that will cheat toward the line to halt Tebow and Willis McGahee, Broncos receivers are going to be open on Sunday. ... The Vikings have a top-nine run defense, so the matchup is not working in McGahee's favor this week. The promising news long term is that McGahee is clearly recovered from his previous hand and hamstring maladies, racking up 117 yards on 23 carries (5.09 YPC) in Week 12 at San Diego. If you have high-volume running backs with better matchups, use them, but McGahee can certainly make for a respectable flex.

Toby Gerhart's Week 12 start went about as well as it could have for a back with below-average run skills against Atlanta's top-two rush defense. Gerhart was held to two yards or fewer on 12-of-17 carries. More troubling, he was stuffed on 3-of-4 short-yardage runs, including a would-be touchdown plunge on fourth-and-one in the fourth quarter. The good news is that Gerhart goes from facing the NFL's No. 2 run defense to the 19th-ranked unit. He should approach 20 touches and will remain a solid bet to find pay dirt. ... Since Adrian Peterson went down at the end of the first quarter in Week 11, Percy Harvin has received 20 touches in seven quarters, taking them for 169 yards and two scores. Harvin came oh-so-close to a four-TD game in Week 12, getting tackled at the Falcons' one after a 20-yard reception, caught by the shoestring at the end of a 104-yard return, and narrowly missing out on a rushing score before Gerhart was thrown for a loss. Harvin is a slot receiver and Champ Bailey covers outside receivers, so he should avoid Denver's top cornerback for most of this game. A potential every-snap player for the first time this season following Michael Jenkins' year-ending knee injury, Harvin will be a high-upside WR2 in this game.

With Broncos edge rushers Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil on an all-out rampage, the Vikings will struggle to keep Christian Ponder upright in Week 13. Dumervil and Miller have combined for 11 sacks over the past five games, and adversaries LT Charlie Johnson and RT Phil Loadholt are not up to the task. Pro Football Focus has graded Loadholt as the league's third-poorest right tackle in pass protection. Johnson ranks 28th among 37 qualifying left tackles. Ponder should have ample opportunities to put his athleticism to use, but he'll have little time in the pocket. His matchup will improve if Miller (thumb surgery) does not play. ... Jenkins' loss leaves Devin Aromashodu and Greg Camarillo as Ponder's top two perimeter targets. Camarillo is too slow to separate outside, and Aromashodu has nine receptions on the year. If Bailey stays at his usual left corner position, he will spend most of this game covering Aromashodu. ... Visanthe Shiancoe and rookie Kyle Rudolph have been eating away at each other's production all season. They would be worth a look this week and beyond if they could morph into one tight end's body.

Score Prediction: Broncos 21, Vikings 20

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

I discussed it in my Week 10 matchups column, and it held true in the first Bengals-Steelers battle earlier this year: Cincy defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has Ben Roethlisberger's number. In their past six meetings, Zimmer has held Big Ben to a 4:4 TD-to-INT ratio on 118-of-194 passing (60.8%) for 1,357 yards (6.99 YPA). The per-game yardage average is 226.2. Roethlisberger could bust the funk at any moment, but last Sunday night's effort against Kansas City (193 yards) provided little reason for optimism. Consider Big Ben a QB2 in Week 13. ... Rashard Mendenhall has essentially lost his passing-game role to Mewelde Moore and Isaac Redman, which especially stings when he's not toting the rock 20 times per game. Mendenhall hasn't exceeded 17 carries since Week 6 and will likely need a goal-line touchdown to finish Week 13 as a worthwhile fantasy start. The Bengals' top-five run defense allows the third-fewest yards per carry (3.52) in football.

A picture of consistency, Antonio Brown has cleared 80 yards and/or scored a touchdown in five straight games. Here is Big Ben's target distribution over that span: Brown 37, Mike Wallace 36, Heath Miller 26, Emmanuel Sanders 19, Jerricho Cotchery 13, Mendenhall 13, Hines Ward 9. ... Brown's increasing role and Wallace's failure to exceed 70 yards since Week 7 have concerned some "60 Minutes" owners, but Wallace has in no way slowed down in terms of on-field performance, and has actually seen more targets than Brown in the Steelers' past two games. In coverage, Cincinnati's pass defense is significantly less imposing with top CB Leon Hall on injured reserve. FS Chris Crocker is coming off what is believed to be a subluxed (temporarily dislocated) right shoulder. Wallace is going to catch fire soon, and you don't want to be late to that dance. ... Miller's targets, on the other hand, have dipped in four consecutive games along with his yardage totals. He's only a TE2 going forward. ... Sanders and Ward are rotating sub-package wideouts playing in three- and four-receiver formations. Sanders played 29-of-66 snaps (43.9%) in Week 12, according to Pro Football Focus. Ward was in for 17 downs (25.8%). These players are not fantasy options.

Cedric Benson is coming off his best game since the first month of the season, but he's lined up to be shut down in Sunday's matchup with Pittsburgh's No. 6 run defense. In seven career games against the Steelers, Benson has managed 315 yards on 94 carries (3.35 YPC). Further hurting Benson's chances is the fact that SS Troy Polamalu has been medically cleared from his Week 12 concussion symptoms. After missing practice time with a foot injury, Benson is not playable in fantasy leagues this week. ... Andy Dalton threw two touchdown passes in the aforementioned Week 10 game, but Pittsburgh's defense was at less than full strength. Top edge rusher LaMarr Woodley, who had nine sacks in the season's first eight games, is back from his four-week hamstring injury and will be bookended by a healthy James Harrison. It's going to be very tough sledding for the entire Cincinnati offense this Sunday.

The 42.5-point over/under on this game seems awfully high. Jermaine Gresham will likely spend the day on the line blocking, and Pittsburgh held Jerome Simpson catch-less on four targets in Week 10. Simpson is easy to eliminate from the Bengals' offense with physical man coverage. Barring an absolutely mammoth effort from A.J. Green, Cincinnati will struggle to put points on the board. ... Green reconfirmed himself as an every-week fantasy starter by torching Browns top corner Joe Haden for 110 yards in Week 12. Fully recovered from his previously hyperextended knee, Green is the No. 11 overall receiver in fantasy points per game and should be in lineups at Heinz Field.

Score Prediction: Steelers 17, Bengals 13

Atlanta @ Houston

It would be foolhardy to say with confidence that T.J. Yates will play effectively enough for Andre Johnson to maintain WR1 value the rest of the way. What we can say confidently is that Johnson should be open against Atlanta. LCB Brent Grimes, easily the Falcons' top cover corner, will miss 2-4 weeks after knee surgery, and nickel back Kelvin Hayden is out at least one more game with a dislocated toe. RCB Dunta Robinson is having a horrible year. Atlanta will be minus at least two of its top three cornerbacks while selling out to stop the run with eight defenders in the box. Even before Grimes' multi-week loss, the Falcons were playing bottom-eight pass defense. Johnson should have plenty of playmaking opportunities on Sunday. ... In terms of arm strength, athleticism, and a willingness to throw downfield, Yates is an upgrade on Matt Leinart. Whereas everything Leinart did was deliberate, long, and slow, Yates possesses a lightning-quick release, plays with more aggressiveness, and puts superior zip on the football. In Week 12, the NFL.com Gamebook characterized all 13 of Leinart's attempts as "pass short," with 11 intended for running backs or tight ends. Leinart did not complete a single pass to Johnson, targeting him once. The rookie Yates came off the bench to target Johnson three times, hooking up twice for 22 yards.

Here was Yates' Week 12 target distribution: Owen Daniels 6, Johnson 3, Arian Foster 2, Jacoby Jones 2, James Casey 1, Kevin Walter 0. ... The early target stats seem to bode well for Daniels, but I'd still find him difficult to trust in an extremely run-heavy offense where he can get stuck on the line blocking for long stretches. Daniels hasn't hit pay dirt since Week 4 and has been under 40 yards in three straight games. ... Jones and Walter remain fantasy non-factors as secondary options in an offense that skews heavily toward the run. ... The Texans entered Week 12 planning to get Ben Tate "12-15 carries" against the Jags, Gary Kubiak told CBS last Sunday morning. Unfortunately, game flow didn't allow for it as an in-game quarterback change and solid effort from Jacksonville's defense slowed ball movement. Tate will have a bigger role going forward than his five Week 12 carries suggest, but he needs favorable matchups and big Texans leads to prove fantasy viable. ... The Falcons are No. 2 against the run, but Arian Foster is matchup-proof as a nearly 30 touch-per-game back and the centerpiece of his offense. Since returning from his early-season hamstring injury, he is averaging over 27 touches for 154 yards per game.

The Julio Jones situation is tricky because Falcons OC Mike Mularkey heaped post-game praise on the rookie despite a catch-less Week 12 effort. "He obviously didn't get many chances," said Mularkey. "We were emphasizing 'take what the defense is giving you' and that's been important. Matt (Ryan) did that. ... Julio really helped block in the run game. He helped with some of the coverages by getting other guys open. ... He'll have his numbers and his day." The Falcons don't seem to be concerned with Jones' health, and he'll have a better Week 13 matchup than Roddy White. The Texans will likely try to take away White with top CB Johnathan Joseph, leaving a combo of Kareem Jackson and Jason Allen on Julio. Playing in a passing-friendly environment beneath Reliant Stadium's retractable roof, I like Jones' chances of a bounce-back game. ... The Texans began allowing Joseph to shadow opposing No. 1 receivers in Week 4. Here is how the opponents have fared since: Mike Wallace 4-77, Mike Williams South 2-43, Denarius Moore 0-0, Greg Little 2-33, Nate Washington 1-10, Mike Thomas 3-24 and 2-11. Anquan Boldin has been the outlier with an 8-132 line in Week 6. Houston hasn't allowed a touchdown to a No. 1 wideout in its last eight games, and over that span has permitted just 330 yards on 22 receptions to top receivers. It's a weekly average of under three catches for 42 yards. This is a concern for White.

With much improved safety play, Houston's No. 2 pass defense has been similarly suffocating against tight ends. Jared Cook is the only player at the position to have scored on the Texans since Week 4, and during that span tight ends have managed 26 receptions for 246 yards against Houston. It's an average of just over three catches for 30 yards per game. On paper at least, this week sets up extremely well for Jones. White and Tony Gonzalez may have quiet days. ... Michael Turner turns 30 in ten weeks and is second in the NFL in carries. He has led the league in rushing attempts in two of the past three seasons. Turner showed up on the Week 13 injury report with a groin ailment, which should not be surprising considering the wear and tear on his aging body. I'm inclined to believe Turner will struggle against Houston's top-four run defense. Jason Snelling is next in line for carries. ... Matt Ryan has picked up his production recently by torching the pass defenses of Minnesota (No. 29 ranking), New Orleans (No. 27), and Indianapolis (No. 18) in three of the past four weeks. The Texans are a different animal, especially with FS Danieal Manning back from his leg injury. Gregg Rosenthal and Chris Wesseling have Ryan ranked 11th among fantasy quarterbacks for Week 13, and that's right where I'd have him, too. I'd play Tim Tebow over Matt Ryan, for sure.

Score Prediction: Texans 21, Falcons 18

NY Jets @ Washington

The Jets have been squelching opposing ground attacks since a slow start, but they'll be missing a difference-making front-seven component in D.C. LE Mike DeVito, whom Pro Football Focus grades as the NFL's No. 2 overall 3-4 end in run defense, is sidelined by a left MCL injury. Roy Helu carries risk because he plays in a Mike Shanahan backfield, but Shanny was emphatic this week when announcing Helu as the Skins' bell-cow back. "He's our starter for sure," Shanahan said. "We felt he was ready." Added Rex Grossman of Helu's hurdling, 28-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter at Seattle, "It was one of the most impressive runs I've ever seen." Helu has now racked up 354 yards on his last 73 carries (4.85 YPC) and quietly ranks eighth in the NFL in receptions among running backs. Helu owners are sitting on a potential PPR goldmine, and DeVito's absence makes the rookie more attractive in standard leagues. With a legitimate shot at 30 touches against the Jets, Helu is a strong RB2 regardless of format. ... Grossman is coming off a 314-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Seahawks. History says Grossman is bound to go back in the tank shortly after good games, and it will probably happen this week considering the matchup. The Jets' No. 7 pass defense has allowed the second-fewest touchdown throws in the league while holding opponents to the fourth-lowest completion percentage. In order to stay competitive Sunday, the Skins need to lean heavily on Helu and minimize Grossman's impact.

Santana Moss (hand) resumed his normal role in Week 12, playing 58-of-73 (79.5%) snaps and tying for the team lead in targets. Moss figures to get the Darrelle Revis treatment on Sunday, but he'll face the injury-sacked secondaries of New England (No. 32 rank), the Giants (No. 26), and Minnesota (No. 29) during the fantasy playoffs. ... Assuming Revis shadows Moss, Fred Davis should be open more often than any Skins pass catcher against New York. Over their last five games, the Jets have yielded 335 yards and three touchdowns on 30 receptions to tight ends, good for a six-catch, 67-yard weekly average. The Jets' safeties, particularly SS Eric Smith, are vulnerable in coverage. ... After a monster (7-115-1) game in Week 11, Jabar Gaffney stayed afloat in Moss' return with five catches for 72 yards at Seattle. The journeyman's week-to-week target and yardage totals will likely continue to decrease, however, and it's conceivable that Gaffney will see plenty of Revis this week when Moss moves to the slot on passing downs. ... Situational deep threat Anthony Armstrong's 50-yard touchdown in Week 12 was a complete fluke in that he was in for just three of the Skins' 73 offensive snaps. Armstrong isn't a viable sleeper.

Mark Sanchez torched a pathetic Bills defense for four Week 12 red-zone touchdowns, finishing with 180 yards. Whereas Buffalo ranks 22nd versus the pass and has allowed the most passing scores in the AFC, Washington fields a top-ten pass defense and has permitted the NFC's third-fewest passing TDs. Also tied for the NFC lead in sacks, the Skins bring considerably more down-to-down heat than the Bills. Sanchez is a QB2 in this matchup. ... Sanchez's target distribution since the Jets' Week 8 bye: Santonio Holmes 32, Plaxico Burress 29, Dustin Keller 27, Jeremy Kerley 13, Joe McKnight 11. ... Holmes isn't heavily targeted as most "No. 1 receivers" are, which at least partially explains his disappointing production. He will square off primarily with Redskins LCB DeAngelo Hall in this game, giving Holmes a favorable matchup. Hall has been beaten like a drum all season. ... Josh Wilson is the Redskins' top defensive back in coverage, but Burress (6'5/232) has a significant size advantage on the 5-foot-9, 192-pound right corner. Picking it up in terms of catch and yardage totals recently, Plax is a viable WR3 against the Redskins and a solid bet to score. Among NFL wide receivers, only Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson, Eric Decker, Greg Jennings, and Wes Welker have found pay dirt with more frequency than Burress this season.

Running the best he has all year behind an offensive line stepping up of late, Shonn Greene has amassed 366 yards on his last 72 rushing attempts (5.08 YPC). Unfortunately, Jets playcaller Brian Schottenheimer's fondness for throwing in scoring position has kept Greene out of the end zone since Week 5. Greene will continue to be an RB2/flex only against a hit-or-miss Redskins run defense. ... The Jets are unlikely to enjoy much overall passing success on Sunday, and the matchup is difficult enough to keep Keller in the low-end TE1 range despite his two-score Week 12. In its last five games, Washington has surrendered 291 yards and three touchdowns on 20 catches to tight ends. It's a mediocre average of four catches for 58 yards per game. ... I recall seeing some hype for McKnight leading up last Sunday's tilt with Buffalo. McKnight is a change-up back behind Greene, and isn't even guaranteed that role when LaDainian Tomlinson (knee) returns. McKnight would need injuries to both Greene and L.T. in order to be a serious fantasy option.

Score Prediction: Redskins 20, Jets 17

4:05PM ET Game

Baltimore @ Cleveland

The Ravens return from a ten-day layoff after their Thanksgiving Har-Bowl win to face a Browns team they'll face twice in the next month. Offensively, the greatest benefactors from the extended rest period project to be linemen and Ray Rice. Rice has racked up 18 or more touches in 8-of-11 games, so he should emerge from the time off with fresh legs. Now down run-plugging SLB Scott Fujita (hand, I.R.) and shuffling linebackers to compensate, Cleveland has been lit up for 764 yards and five touchdowns on 150 carries (5.09 YPC) by tailbacks over the past five games. Owners should be excited that Rice gets this matchup twice in the final four fantasy weeks. Rice's other remaining opponents are the Colts (No. 31 run defense) and Chargers (No. 25), so it's likely that he'll be on many championship rosters. ... Ed Dickson has come crashing back to Earth after his 10-79-2 game in Week 10, finishing with 21 yards in Week 11 and 15 yards in Week 12. There are much better TE2s out there. (Scott Chandler and Jacob Tamme immediately come to mind.)

This is a game Baltimore should control on the ground, limiting Joe Flacco's impact. Flacco set back-to-back season lows in pass attempts in Weeks 11 and 12, so it seems clear the Ravens were already making an effort to balance their offense after Flacco got on pace for the sixth-most pass attempts in NFL history during the first nine games. Also not working in Flacco's favor are the facts that Cleveland ranks No. 1 in pass defense and is allowing just one passing touchdown per game. Flacco is mid-range QB2 material. ... Last season, Anquan Boldin lit up then-Browns CB Eric Wright for 142 yards and three touchdowns in Week 3. Joe Haden covered Boldin during the Ravens' Week 16 game in Cleveland, and Haden bottled up Baltimore's top wideout for 15 scoreless yards on two catches. I like Torrey Smith's chances of out-producing Boldin on Sunday.

The Ravens rank third the league in total defense and are top five against both the run and pass. Only the Texans and 49ers have allowed fewer points. You will be hard pressed to find a fantasy starter on the Browns' roster this week. ... The Ravens have had something of a stranglehold on opposing No. 1 wide receivers, holding Santonio Holmes (3-33), Larry Fitzgerald (3-98), Sidney Rice (2-14), Michael Crabtree (6-54), and Mike Wallace (4-68-1) to an average of under four catches for 54 yards and one combined touchdown since the season's first month. Greg Little isn't as good as any of the above. ... Behind Little, Josh Cribbs, Mohamed Massaquoi, Ben Watson, Evan Moore, and Jordan Norwood serve only to cancel each other out from fantasy consideration. ... Peyton Hillis returned from his hamstring injury in Week 12 to manage 61 yards on 21 touches. Montario Hardesty (calf) is due back this week to siphon away work, and Hillis simply hasn't been the same player since his early-to-midseason surge in 2010. Over his last seven games, Hillis has 324 rushing yards on 97 carries (3.34 YPC) and two touchdowns. Perhaps Hillis will be a fantasy option in Week 15 at Arizona, but he's got the Ravens twice (No. 3 run defense) and Steelers (No. 6) in three of the next four weeks. Hillis' chances of serious stretch-run fantasy relevance are slim.

Score Prediction: Ravens 20, Browns 13

4:15PM ET Games

Dallas @ Arizona

Arizona's pass defense rank has "risen" to No. 25 by preying on an injured Michael Vick in Week 10 and two matchups with the Rams over the past month. Mixed in was Michael Crabtree's 120-yard, seven-catch shredding of Patrick Peterson. This is one of the league's worst pass defenses, and Dallas' passing game enters the contest hitting on all cylinders. Since Week 8, Tony Romo is 87-of-128 (68.0%) for 1,067 yards (8.34 YPA), ten touchdowns, and two turnovers. Romo is the No. 5 fantasy quarterback over that span. For Week 13, here is how I personally would rank the top-five QB plays: 1) Aaron Rodgers 2) Drew Brees 3) Tom Brady 4) Tony Romo 5) Cam Newton. ... Both Dez Bryant and Laurent Robinson have incredibly favorable matchups as well. Bryant figures to draw Peterson while Robinson takes on A.J. Jefferson on the outside and Michael Adams when Robinson moves inside to the slot. Robinson has played well enough lately to earn high-end WR2 status against a bad defense. Bryant is a WR1 until Miles Austin (hamstring) returns. Shake off Bryant's scoreless 3-35 Thanksgiving stat line against Vontae Davis and use him on Sunday.

Jason Witten's production has been down with Robinson and Bryant beating DBs to death on the perimeter, but Witten has warranted an every-week start by ranking fourth among tight ends in fantasy points. Witten is in the "second tier" of tight ends behind Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. ... DeMarco Murray is averaging 24 touches a game since taking over as the Cowboys' lead back in Week 7. Felix Jones has seven touches combined since returning from his high ankle sprain two games ago. The workload isn't a problem, and this is a good opportunity for Murray to rediscover the end zone after a two-game lull. The Cardinals have permitted the fifth-most rushing touchdowns in the league so far. ... Jones is worth picking up in all leagues as a late-season lottery ticket in the event of a Murray injury. Jones would take over as the Dallas' clear-cut feature back in that scenario, and the Cowboys face the Giants (No. 24 run defense), Bucs (No. 30), and Eagles (No. 15 and falling after Thursday night) during the fantasy playoffs.

The Cardinals finally get back Kevin Kolb from foot and toe injuries, but it won't matter if he plays as poorly as he did in the season's first half. You're starting Larry Fitzgerald because you believe he will find a way to make big plays. The QB situation is working against all of Arizona's receivers. ... Despite starting every game, Andre Roberts averaged 19 yards a week in Kolb's seven starts earlier this year, going catch-less in two of them. Roberts is only a slightly worse fantasy option than Early Doucet against Dallas' No. 14 pass defense. Production in the passing game is unlikely to support more than one Cardinals receiver in fantasy leagues this week. Dallas is a top-seven team in sacks, and Kolb reverts to his shell under pressure. ... The Cowboys' run defense has been up and down all season, opening the year shutting down ground games, then tanking around midseason. They've picked it up lately, but ultimately it's a Jekyll & Hyde unit and not tough enough to consider sitting Beanie Wells. Confirming his knee is as healthy as it's going to get, Wells has 257 yards on his last 34 carries (7.56 YPC) while regaining must-start status.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 24, Cardinals 17

Green Bay @ NY Giants

Pack-Giants has a 52.5-point over/under, a close second for highest of Week 13 behind Saints-Lions. New York's defense was a sieve in last Monday night's loss to New Orleans, surrendering a whopping 582 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns, and is now playing on a short week without RE Osi Umenyiora (ankle). The Packers are on a long week after their Thanksgiving win. Aaron Rodgers will light it up. ... After a brief slump and minor knee injury, Greg Jennings re-found his groove with five catches for 74 yards and a touchdown in Week 12. Jennings is headed for his third top-eight fantasy receiver finish in the past four years. ... After scoring five TDs in his prior three games, Jordy Nelson hit a bump in the road with a 4-26-0 line on Thanksgiving. He'll see single coverage for the entirety of Sunday's game and will be a good bet to find the end zone again. ... The Giants are getting destroyed by tight ends, and the trend held Monday as Jimmy Graham went off for 84 yards and two scores. In its last four games, the G-Men have allowed five touchdowns and 33 receptions for 395 yards players at Jermichael Finley's position. It's a weekly average of over eight catches for 99 yards. Finley won't have a better matchup the rest of the way.

Capitalizing on Rodgers' pretty play-action fake, James Jones got behind the Detroit defense for a 65-yard touchdown on Thanksgiving, giving him five scores on the season. He only played 26-of-64 snaps (40.6%). Jones has been maddeningly inconsistent because his weekly target and snap totals are so low. He'll remain a dice roll against the Giants. ... The Packers' three-back committee gets a tasty matchup against New York's No. 24 run defense, though no member offers much week-to-week fantasy upside because it's a timeshare. James Starks is the best bet for yards and snaps. Ryan Grant's feet are stuck in cement. John Kuhn vultures most everything at the stripe.

Brandon Jacobs' role as a feature back has translated to 70 touches over the past month, but tentative tip-toeing has prevented him from capitalizing on Ahmad Bradshaw's (foot) absence. Jacobs is averaging 3.11 yards per carry on the season and almost certainly won't be a Giant in 2012 with a $4.4 million salary coming due. The Packers can be run on (4.88 YPC allowed), but often prevent opponents from doing so because they grab big, early leads and force teams to play from behind. Only the Bears and 49ers have been run against less frequently this season. Jacobs will need a touchdown to save his fantasy day. He's just a flex option in this game, and perhaps not even that if Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) plays after returning to Friday’s practice. Bradshaw could be available for a limited role off the bench. ... Eli Manning has cooled off since his red-hot start to the season, but New York's defensive collapse is working in his favor. He wound up throwing for 406 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints in large part because of New Orleans' monster lead. A similar scenario is conceivable versus Green Bay.

Victor Cruz is averaging six catches for nearly 105 yards per game since Week 2. He has seven touchdowns in his last nine games. Cruz's fantasy value was already solidified, and his role has been too with Mario Manningham (knee) in danger of missing the season's remainder. Green Bay's defense has atoned by leading the NFL in turnovers, but ranks 31st against the pass. In a projected shootout, Cruz is a top-ten fantasy wideout for Week 13. ... With Manningham out in Week 12, Ramses Barden played in all three-receiver sets but was targeted only four times. Eli doesn't seem to trust Barden yet, but he's worth grabbing in 14-team leagues because Mario may not return anytime soon. ... Continuing to take a backseat in the passing game with injuries on the Giants' O-Line, bulky TE Jake Ballard hasn't cleared 50 yards or scored in the last three weeks. Ballard can be dropped from fantasy rosters. ... Keep an eye on updates heading into Sunday morning, but the Giants expect Hakeem Nicks (concussion, ribs) to play Sunday after he received medical clearance early in the week. Nicks remains a low-end WR1 coming off a seven-catch, 87-yard game last Monday night.

Score Prediction: Packers 34, Giants 26

St. Louis @ San Francisco

Frank Gore hasn't found pay dirt since Week 8, but things are looking up heading into Sunday's matchup with St. Louis' last-ranked run defense. Gore's legs should be as fresh as they've been all year after a 10-day layoff following the Niners' Thanksgiving night loss, and difference-making rookie lead blocker Bruce Miller is returning from a concussion. Pro Football Focus has graded Miller as the NFL's fourth-best blocking fullback in the league this season, behind Jed Collins (Saints), Jim Kleinsasser (Vikings), and Vonta Leach (Ravens). Over the last three weeks, the Rams have been ransacked for 406 yards and two touchdowns on 73 carries (5.56 YPC). ... The 49ers have shown no signs of increasing Kendall Hunter's role enough for him to be a Week 13 flex option, despite the mouth-watering matchup. Hunter received five touches on Thanksgiving.

The Rams are arguably even weaker versus the pass than the run considering the sorry state of their secondary, but the combination of Alex Smith's below-average talent and San Francisco's run-heavy mindset keeps Smith off the QB1 radar. He's got one multiple-touchdown game since Week 5, and hasn't hit 300 yards in his last 16 starts. ... Michael Crabtree should still be open enough to qualify as a high-end WR3. Crabtree lit up St. Louis for 10 catches, 183 yards, and two touchdowns in two games last season, when the Rams' pass defense was in much better shape. Crabtree will dominate targets among 49ers wideouts with Braylon Edwards (shoulder, knee) unlikely to play. ... Vernon Davis will set a personal low for yards since the Mike Martz era this season, but has a touchdown in two of his last three games with the lone outlier coming against a Ravens defense that hasn't let a tight end score all year. Davis is still the No. 9 overall fantasy tight end.

Is Steven Jackson wearing down? S-Jax is fourth among active tailbacks in rush attempts, and all three players ahead of him (LaDanian Tomlinson, Thomas Jones, Ricky Williams) are late-career role players. S-Jax has managed 106 yards on his last 32 carries (3.31 YPC), and the average is likely to take another dip in Sunday's matchup with San Francisco's top-ranked run defense. The 49ers still haven't allowed a rushing touchdown all season, and S-Jax's passing-game role under struggling first-year OC Josh McDaniels hasn't been big enough to compensate when Jackson isn't scoring or racking up big rushing totals. He's a low-end flex option this week. ... Brandon Lloyd is the lone St. Louis pass catcher worth a fantasy start, and he's solidified himself as a borderline WR1 by ranking sixth among wideouts in fantasy scoring over the past five weeks. Lloyd never plays in the slot, so he'll avoid 49ers top CB Carlos Rogers for the vast majority of Week 13 snaps. Lloyd will spend most of this game in RCB Tarell Brown's coverage.

Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Rams 10

Sunday Night Football

Detroit @ New Orleans

The 53.5-point over/under on Lions-Saints is the highest of Week 13, so fire up your players in this one. ... Suspended DT Ndamukong Suh's presence was so vital to the Lions' defense because not only did he explode through gaps to pancake passers, he drew constant double teams and opened rushing lanes for pals Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Corey Williams, Lawrence Jackson, and Willie Young. Detroit will be easier -- perhaps significantly easier -- to pile up points and yards against until Suh returns. Drew Brees is scalding hot with a 15:3 TD-to-turnover ratio over his last five games. Detroit will also be without playmaking FS Louis Delmas, who suffered a multi-week knee injury on Thanksgiving. ... The Lions are not positioned well to stop the Saints' No. 1-ranked passing attack. Marques Colston is averaging 84.8 yards in his last six games and is a borderline WR1 in this matchup. ... Delmas' absence may particularly be felt in coverage of Jimmy Graham. With 84 yards and two touchdowns in last Monday night's stomping of the Giants, Graham is again pushing Rob Gronkowski for No. 1 overall fantasy tight end honors. Gronkowski is averaging 13.9 fantasy points per game. Graham is at 13.1. There is a large gap behind them with Tony Gonzalez (9.5), Jason Witten (9.2), and Antonio Gates (8.8) rounding out the top five.

Lance Moore is worth a WR3 look due to this game's high-scoring projection, but owners have to be prepared for clunkers. Moore has been held to 50 yards or fewer in 7-of-10 appearances, and his week-to-week playing time and targets are unpredictable. ... Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson have been all but weeded out of the offense. Meachem is catch-less in two of the last three games. Henderson hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 2, and is averaging 17 yards a week over the past two months. ... Coming off a bye, the Saints' Week 12 backfield distribution may not have painted an accurate picture because New Orleans jumped out to a 21-3 first-quarter lead. Mark Ingram broke off his 35-yard touchdown in fourth-quarter garbage time. Pierre Thomas scored his TD from 12 yards out in the fourth to give the Saints a 42-17 lead. Ultimately, this is going to remain a three-headed monster. Darren Sproles is the best weekly bet for total yardage. Thomas is essentially a designated screen-play back, doing most of his damage between the twenties with some red-zone opportunities sprinkled in lightly. Ingram has been underutilized. He is a volume runner who would excel on 20 carries a game, but the Saints aren't going to give him that. Ingram's workload increases when New Orleans gets into keep-the-lead mode early. All of the above have favorable Week 13 matchups against the Lions' Suh-less, 23rd-ranked run defense.

Having shed his gloves and practicing without a splint on his previously broken right index finger, Matthew Stafford is set up for a fast fantasy finish. Three of his next four games will be played indoors, and the upcoming two are against bottom-six pass defenses (No. 27 Saints, No. 29 Vikings). Stafford is a top-five fantasy quarterback play in this projected high-scoring affair. ... The Saints' secondary strength is LCB Jabari Greer, who will square off with Calvin Johnson on the majority of snaps. It will be interesting to see how often blitz-happy DC Gregg Williams leaves Greer on an island. Greer (5'11/180) gives up six inches and 56 pounds to Megatron (6'5/236). ... Here is Stafford's target distribution since the Lions' Week 9 bye: Johnson 35, Nate Burleson 23, Brandon Pettigrew 21, Titus Young 15, Maurice Morris 13, Tony Scheffler 12, Kevin Smith 9. ... Though Burleson has ultimately been more productive than Pettigrew of late, the two have resumed rendering each other hit-or-miss options while vying for over-the-middle targets. Neither Burleson nor Pettigrew would be a poor Week 13 fantasy play, but they're not great ones, either.

Young has received three targets in each of the past two games since a fluky nine-target Week 10, when Stafford attempted a franchise-record 63 throws. Young offers big-play ability, but he doesn't get the rock enough for fantasy reliability. ... Kevin Smith is due back from his ankle injury, which clearly proved a mild sprain as opposed to the high variety. While there is reason to be wary of Smith because of all the confusion, ultimately the ailment was a minor tweak. Smith needs to be reinserted into fantasy lineups as a legit candidate for 20-plus touches in a shootout and plus matchup. The Saints allow over five yards a carry on the ground, the third-highest rate in football, and Smith will be an every-down back capable of capitalizing in a major way if Detroit falls behind early. He is an enormous upgrade on Maurice Morris as a check-down target because Smith has some change-of-direction skills and at least a prayer of making the first defender miss in the open field. Morris lacks that.

Score Prediction: Saints 38, Lions 31

Monday Night Football

San Diego @ Jacksonville

For better or worse, the Jags are throwing the fate of their franchise behind Blaine Gabbert after ex-coach Jack Del Rio benched the rookie in Week 12. GM Gene Smith, who traded up to draft Gabbert this past April, was signed to a three-year extension on Tuesday. Interim coach Mel Tucker followed up by naming Gabbert his Week 13 starter. Luke McCown wouldn't have saved Jacksonville's last-ranked passing offense, but Gabbert certainly isn't the immediate answer. He will continue to struggle against San Diego's top-nine pass defense. ... It's not uncommon for NFL teams to surge briefly after in-season coaching change. We've seen it before with Jim Haslett in the post-Scott Linehan era, and Jason Garrett's finish after Wade Phillips' 2010 firing. If it's going to happen in Jacksonville, it will almost certainly be because of Maurice Jones-Drew. Enjoying perhaps the best season of any running back in the league considering his situation, Jones-Drew ranks eighth at his position in fantasy scoring and has a favorable enough schedule to stay hot. MJD will finish the season facing San Diego (No. 25 run defense), Tampa Bay (No. 30), and Tennessee (No. 22) in three of his final four games. Expect 25-plus touches on Monday night.

Philip Rivers' lofty recent fantasy stats were not matching his poor on-field play, and more often than not in that kind of scenario the box scores begin catching up to the performance. Especially when the offense suddenly stops facing large deficits. Such was the case in last week's 16-13 loss to Denver, supposedly a passer-friendly matchup. Rivers still threw 36 times, but averaged a year-low 5.2 yards per attempt and took three more sacks behind an injury-wrecked offensive line. The matchup is again favorable, on paper, against a Jacksonville defense that has lost both starting cornerbacks to injured reserve over the past month. This is probably going to be another relatively close game, however, and not one that forces Rivers to flirt with 40 pass attempts. He's a low-end QB1 on Monday Night Football. ... Vincent Jackson has swapped mammoth efforts with clunkers week by week. He is now coming off a slow game, and "due" for a big one after getting shut down yet again by Champ Bailey in Week 12. V-Jax an elite fantasy receiver play in this one.

Antonio Gates' forty time is probably closer to 5.0 than 4.5 at this stage of his career, but he is finding the end zone with frequency. Working in Gates' Week 13 favor is the fact that the Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points in the league to tight ends. Start 'em. ... Malcom Floyd will return to the starting lineup on Monday night, moving Vincent Brown into a situational/third receiver role. Brown is no longer start-able in fantasy football, and Floyd would have to show he's capable of playing four full quarters unscathed before becoming a serious WR3 candidate. Floyd has battled a multitude of lower-body injuries this season, often leaving games early after first-half setbacks. He's in prove-it mode. ... Ryan Mathews is San Diego's feature back when healthy, and that notion was reinforced when he racked up 142 yards on a team-high 23 touches in Week 12 against Denver. Mike Tolbert got the rock 14 times, managing 63 yards. Off the injury report this week, Mathews is a high-end RB2 in Monday night's matchup with Jacksonville. Run-plugging Jags NT Terrance Knighton (ankle) is not expected to play, and Mathews has 279 yards on his last 57 carries, good for a crisp average of 4.89 yards per tote. Tolbert is a low-end flex option.