An 8-game Season

4 Teams Are Tied For The Afc East Lead. Who Will Win?

No, we're not going to take 'em one game at a time. Why should we? That's coaches' stuff. You want to know how this 5-and-3 logjam in the AFC East is going to unfold, and you want to know right now.

You need to do a little homework first. Check out the head-to-heads (No. 1 NFL tiebreaker) in case any or all of the following finish the regular season with identical records -- New England, Buffalo, the New York Jets and the Dolphins. Then go to the division records (No. 2 breaker) and conference records (No. 3).

Next, examine the games each club has in the second half of the season. Everyone plays four at home and four on the road. There will be no edge there.

When you've done that, go figure. And remember: All four of these teams have injuries and they certainly will have others in the next eight games, so factor in team depth.

This is a gloriously tight race with the amazing Jets, who might have the least overall individual talent, in surprising position to win it all.

They are 1-0 against Miami and New England and, at 3-0, they hold the only undefeated record within the division.

"Everyone is stacked up like club sandwiches. It's whoever plays the best from here on in who survives," says Jets coach Bill Parcells, who knows a little something about putting together a second-half stretch run.

In 1986, when he coached the New York Giants, Parcells was 6-2 at the midway point and 8-0 in the second half. On the way to winning the NFC East, he beat Washington, Denver and San Francisco in consecutive weeks -- the three teams he would beat in the playoffs, which ended with victory over the Broncos in Super Bowl XXI.

One of the beauties of this 1998 second-half race is that the four contenders are quite different in makeup and philosophy:

Dolphins

Coach Jimmy Johnson has an excellent run defense and a gambling pass defense that makes big plays and gets burned for big plays. He also has an aging quarterback in Dan Marino, who lacks scrambling ability but who, with time to throw, still is capable of pulling a game out in the fourth quarter, even without top-quality receivers.

Head to head, the Dolphins are 1-0 over the Patriots, 0-1 with the Jets and 1-1 with Buffalo.

Their next two games, against Indianapolis and Carolina, should leave them at 7-3. But, from there, it's a mixed bag. They play the Jets at home, where they've beaten them four in a row. But they also must play Super Bowl champion Denver (at home) and hit the road to play the Patriots, where they have lost the last three. There also is a 2,800-mile road trip to Oakland, where they lost in 1996 and won in 1997.

A lot depends on how well the Dolphins perform without left tackle Richmond Webb, who is out with injury at least six weeks. This could mean more two-tight end formations to help Webb's replacement with blocking, both on the pass and the run.

Bills

Quarterback Doug Flutie is the best story in the NFL, coming out of the Canadian Football League to help Buffalo to five straight wins after an 0-3 start.

This is a strong defense with a top-drawer front four that includes defensive tackle Ted Washington and defensive ends Bruce Smith and Phil Hansen; an excellent young linebacker in John Holecek; and a top strong safety in Henry Jones.

The running game doesn't dominate top opponents, but the offense has done a good job of not turning over the ball and Flutie makes plays inexperienced quarterbacks never see developing.

Buffalo has split with Miami and still has two games each with the Jets and Pats. There are "gimme" games against Indianapolis, New Orleans and Cincinnati -- though the Bengals had a strong game last week against Denver.

Buffalo has beaten the Jets six games in a row, but they've lost their last three and five of their last six to the Patriots.

Jets

The Jets are playing well because of quarterback Vinny Testaverde. They paid millions to acquire Parcells' former running back with the Patriots, Curtis Martin, but he's not dominating. The club is built on preparation, timely passing and defensive coordinator Bill Belichick's highly disciplined schemes.

They're going to have to reverse some bad history against the Patriots and at Pro Player Stadium in order win their first-ever division title.

The travel schedule isn't bad -- Bills, Dolphins, Colts and Oilers. They get Seattle at home on Dec. 6, but those indoor Seahawks might not enjoy the blustery New Jersey weather or playing in a trench game.

Patriots

Coach Pete Carroll's Pats, already hurt by a flock of receiver injuries, must play Atlanta, Miami, Buffalo and San Francisco at home and are on the road to Buffalo, Pittsburgh, St. Louis and the Jets.

That Rams game is the only "gimme" on the schedule. Everything else is going to be tough.

But before you write off the Patriots, think about the intangibles that go into winning a division. Despite the difficulty New England faces in the second half of the season, it is a veteran team that has been to a Super Bowl and which played its best ball at the end of the 1997 season, beating Miami three times in six weeks, topping Jacksonville on the road and falling in overtime to Pittsburgh.

If coaching means anything, give that edge to the Dolphins and Jets. Both Johnson and Parcells have won two Super Bowl games. Wade Phillips of the Bills was defensive coordinator of the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XXIV, though he may not want to remind people of that. San Francisco won 55-10 in the biggest rout in the game's history.