JD’s NFL Week 12 Weekend picks

November 27, 2009

T.O.N.Y is not responsible for your betting blunders...

Another tough weekend ahead—I only like a few games this weekend and just use simple logic– a lot of money was laid down on Thanksgiving, and Vegas, regardless of how they did yesterday compensates for this by toying with the weekend games. When this happens, always look for trap lines during the weekend as the book looks to rebound from Thursday. A lot of money was put on Denver as the spread went from -7 to -4.5 at one point, and since Denver won…

**9-8** Overall (Oakland shoulda covered yesterday)

Picks after the jump!

Arizona @ Tennessee– 4:15 pm

I like Arizona to rebound against Vince Young and the Titans. The Titans have been flying on cloud 9 and have anointed Vince Young as the second coming, but the reality is that Arizona has something to really play for while the Titans are running on emotion. I like the Cardinals to put up 24+ points and handle their business on the road. Arizona in a feeble NFC West needs only a few more wins to secure a spot and then make a run, and for this reason if given the points I suggest taking them. Arizona is more than due for a win as long as the Cardinal D can limit the run to around 100-120 yards, the Cards should put up more points.

Pick: Arizona +3

Indi @ Houston—1:00 pm

This is a divisional game that is always remarkably close where the score is separated by just a few points. The average gambler would look at these statistics and say that Houston will play them close like always, but the time has come when Houston has come to the realization that they are a sub .500 team and are in the same division as the Colts, but aren’t in the same league if you get me. 3 points is more than enough for Peyton alone to cover. This game will not be close because the Texans are on short rest and played hard on Monday night only to suffer a demoralizing victory that sealed their season. I do not believe they are mature enough to come back and play Indy well especially since they aren’t the dominant home team they were a season ago. The first half will be close, but then Peyton will do his thing because he is remarkable and makes any wager put on his team seem like it always has a chance because of his ability to go down the field like no other QB in NFL history.

Pick: Colts -3

Monday Night Game: Patriots @ Saints

The Saints have not lost this year but this will be a real test against an all around football team. This is the type of situation that good teams relish: the opportunity to hand an undefeated team their first loss. The Pats get to put the Saints in their place and Beli-dick and company simply love these games. Due to experience in big games, advantage goes to the Patriots. Gotta take the Pats getting the points even though the Saints had a hell of a run…standing ovaa,eyyy!

Pick: Patriots +3

FYI- im ont a little football skid…after starting off 5-0 on hockey ive tumbled but im looking to bounce back! Lets get it folks…