August 10, 2000 
Even though the first half of the Atlantic hurricane season was
quiet, experts at NOAA are
still calling for slightly above average numbers and intensity
of storms during the remainder of the season, according to the
updated hurricane season outlook released today. (Click image
for larger view of Hurricane Alberto taken by NOAA's satellite
on August 9, 2000. Note: this is a very large file.)

"The fact there were no
storms during the months of June and July is not unusual and
has little bearing on the remainder of the season. In fact, September
is the peak of Atlantic hurricane activity," said NOAA's
National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield. "What
matters is getting the public prepared for the storms that make
landfall." Mayfield said that 14 of the last 60 hurricane
seasons have had no activity during the months of June and July.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 to November 30.

Analysis by a group of NOAA
scientists shows that overall activity should be slightly higher
than average due to remaining weak La
Niña conditions and the global weather patterns that
control conditions over the tropical Atlantic. However, the season
will likely not be quite as active as either the 1998 or 1999
seasons. La Niña is the cooling of sea surface temperatures
in the central Pacific. This cooling results in atmospheric conditions
over the tropical Atlantic that are conducive to tropical storm
development.

An above average Atlantic hurricane
season is characterized by at least two of the following three:
a) at least eleven tropical storms, b) seven or more of which
typically become hurricanes, and c) three or more of which become
major hurricanes (maximum sustained winds over 110 mph, Category
3 on the Saffir
Simpson Hurricane Scale).

Dr. Chris Landsea, of NOAA's
Hurricane Research Division reporting for the group, noted
additional factors suggesting an active season. "The structure
and location of the African jet stream is poised to provide energy
to developing tropical systems as they move westward from the
African coast. Also favorable are low surface air pressure across
the Atlantic and Caribbean and a moist unstable atmosphere over
the tropical Atlantic."

According to agency scientists,
the 2000 season is expected to feature several Cape Verde storms,
which move westward from the coast of Africa and pose a significant
threat to the Caribbean islands and the coastal United States.
The U.S. experiences an average of one-to-two hurricane strikes
each year.

The first hurricane of the
Atlantic season, Alberto, is expected to continue moving over
the North Atlantic and pass well East of Bermuda. Ships at sea
should continue monitoring the progress of this storm.