PC sales drop in fourth quarter of 2012 for the first time in five years

IDC also reports that HP is still the world's top PC vendor.

Call it a point for the people who argue we're moving into a "post-PC world:" new data from analysis firm IDC shows the fourth quarter of 2012 “marked the first time in more than five years that the PC market has seen a year-on-year decline during the holiday season.”

IDC reported Thursday that despite the launch of Windows 8, worldwide PC shipments hit nearly 90 million units. That's 6.4 percent lower than what they were at the same time in 2011.

"Although the third quarter was focused on the clearing of Windows 7 inventory, preliminary research indicates the clearance did not significantly boost the uptake of Windows 8 systems in Q4," said Jay Chou, senior research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, in a statement.

"Lost in the shuffle to promote a touch-centric PC, vendors have not forcefully stressed other features that promote a more secure, reliable, and efficient user experience. As Windows 8 matures, and other corresponding variables such as Ultrabook pricing continue to drop, hopefully the PC market can see a reset in both messaging and demand in 2013."

Of the PCs that did sell, HP retained its top spot as the world’s number one PC vendor. The company notably hit its first year-over-year growth in Asia/Pacific in four quarters.

I was at court all day today (jury duty) and saw more laptops than tablets and a ton of smartphones. Professionals are not ready to give up their PC. They just don't need to be upgraded as often and it's an already saturated market. I'd bet dollars to doughnuts most tablet owners also own a PC or Mac.

Considering the ridiculous prices being asked for touch laptops and Ultrabooks and the lack of interest in Win 8 and touch on the PC, it's not surprising sales are down. Traditional laptops don't offer anything more than they did 2 years ago, so why upgrade? I'd buy a traditional laptop if it had something new to offer, like SSD and platter HD combo in the $400-500 range.

The iPad 1 didn't get upgraded to iOS 6 and the fragmentation of Android is terrible, so I'm in no hurry to buy a tablet either. If the Windows Store didn't suck so hard I'd consider an Atom based model. At least it wouldn't be obsolete in 2 years.

If a customer has a choice of iOS or Android which they probably are familiar with or Windows 8, some customers may be electing to go with what they know instead of something new.

Long term Microsoft may have big problems with Windows if they cannot get a foothold in the phone market and get folks exposed to thier ecosystem. Unlike years past folks have a real alternative even to forego PC's altogether

Just to be clear, this is the same PC business HP decided they wanted to get rid of 18 months ago (and then changed their mind about), right?

Came in to post the same thing. Apparently #1 or #2 wasn't good enough for Leo Apotheker and the board since HP weren't making Apple-like margins on their PC products. The mind boggles...

It's part of what new CEO's do. They restructure, downsize, or sell off. That way it takes years before anyone gets wind if its any good. He chose to restructure and sell off, refocus on the more profitable areas while the sale of the hardware division would give a lot of cash and profit so he could show how great he is. He then bought a British company for way overpriced to cement himself in place and make sure things won't get figured out until years after he was gone with a few boatloads of money.

If a customer has a choice of iOS or Android which they probably are familiar with or Windows 8, some customers may be electing to go with what they know instead of something new.

Long term Microsoft may have big problems with Windows if they cannot get a foothold in the phone market and get folks exposed to thier ecosystem. Unlike years past folks have a real alternative even to forego PC's altogether

Bigger more pixel dense monitors could do that but nobody is putting a fire under anyone's butt

"Call it a point for the people who argue we're moving into a "post-PC world:" "

No, it's simply a point that it's a mature market. If you want to convince any of us that we're moving into a "post-PC world" then give us some numbers that show that the percentage of people who use PCs is going down.

I do not understand why tech writers are not willing to say that that PC sales are dropping because the new version of Windows is effing terrible. I mean, they just will not say it. It's always some other explanation, like tablets, when PCs have been climbing steadily during their entire rise.

So Win8 comes out, and wham PC sales actually drop, and nobody is willing to state the obvious.

With Windows 8 coming out, I held off on buying any laptops and tablets last year for our business as I was anticipating a bunch of interesting new form factors. I was quite disappointed that so much traditional stuff hit the market and so little interesting stuff did. Yes, there were plenty of product announcements. But our local stores didn't get anything interesting in.I am very reluctant to purchase new form factors without seeing them first.Right at the end of 2012 I broke down and purchased (ordered online) a handful of devices so I could check them out (Sony Vaio Duo, MS Surface RT, Fujitsu Q702 hybrid, Samsung Ativ, Dell XPS 10 Tablet, Dell Latitude 10 Tablet).I was also planning to purchase some sort of new Windows 8 tablet or hybrid tablet for myself personally. Same thing though - nothing hit the market that I wanted. Hopefully things will improve over the next few months.Maybe there are others out there that are in a holding pattern when it comes to laptops and tablets for similar reasons.

I do not understand why tech writers are not willing to say that that PC sales are dropping because the new version of Windows is effing terrible. I mean, they just will not say it. It's always some other explanation, like tablets, when PCs have been climbing steadily during their entire rise.

So Win8 comes out, and wham PC sales actually drop, and nobody is willing to state the obvious.

I do not understand why tech writers are not willing to say that that PC sales are dropping because the new version of Windows is effing terrible. I mean, they just will not say it. It's always some other explanation, like tablets, when PCs have been climbing steadily during their entire rise.

So Win8 comes out, and wham PC sales actually drop, and nobody is willing to state the obvious.

I know, right! Given everyone in the whole world hates it and it offers absolutely no improvements in performance, security or features, how is it not, like, totally obvious?!

"Call it a point for the people who argue we're moving into a "post-PC world:" "

No, it's simply a point that it's a mature market. If you want to convince any of us that we're moving into a "post-PC world" then give us some numbers that show that the percentage of people who use PCs is going down.

You're absolutely right. Auto sales (another mature market) do the same thing during recessions: you don't upgrade when what you have does the job well-enough. The recession, combined with the lack of need for faster hardware to run newer applications, means that for many people there just isn't a compelling reason to buy a new PC.

I know, right! Given everyone in the whole world hates it and it offers absolutely no improvements in performance, security or features, how is it not, like, totally obvious?!

I don't hate it. It does perform better in my experience. It works great on touch screen devices.Does it make sense for a traditional Windows 7 desktop user to upgrade at this point - no. Does it make sense for alot of these newer devices - hell yes!

I'm more surprised that during the past five years PC sales didn't already go down during the fourth quarter, with the recession and all. Maybe it just took a while to hit? Did sales go down during the other three quarters in the past five years?

So hang on, it's the 'first time in 5 years' that it's happened. You mean it's happened before? And it recovered?

Certainly this time it's doomed, for sure.

Wait a minute, 5 years ago? Isn't that when Vista came out? So the only two times in recent history that PC sales have declined year over year were at the debuts of Windows Vista and Windows 8? That's probably a comparison that Microsoft doesn't want people making...

Windows 8 is so unfriendly to my clients that my sales of Windows 7 are higher than ever. Sadly, the choices for Win7 system is getting sparse. Meanwhile, Apple continues to price itself out of reasonable

So hang on, it's the 'first time in 5 years' that it's happened. You mean it's happened before? And it recovered?

Certainly this time it's doomed, for sure.

Wait a minute, 5 years ago? Isn't that when Vista came out? So the only two times in recent history that PC sales have declined year over year were at the debuts of Windows Vista and Windows 8? That's probably a comparison that Microsoft doesn't want people making...

Vista was released almost 6 years ago, in January to consumers (i.e. after Q4), so try again

Wait a minute, 5 years ago? Isn't that when Vista came out? So the only two times in recent history that PC sales have declined year over year were at the debuts of Windows Vista and Windows 8? That's probably a comparison that Microsoft doesn't want people making...

Vista was released almost 6 years ago, in January to consumers (i.e. after Q4), so try again

But the fallout was pretty extensive, and may well have lasted in the following Q4, as people decided to wait until the next OS update to upgrade their PCs. I'm just speculating here, though. Does anyone have any better explanation for the last time there was a year-over-year decline?

Wait a minute, 5 years ago? Isn't that when Vista came out? So the only two times in recent history that PC sales have declined year over year were at the debuts of Windows Vista and Windows 8? That's probably a comparison that Microsoft doesn't want people making...

Vista was released almost 6 years ago, in January to consumers (i.e. after Q4), so try again

But the fallout was pretty extensive, and may well have lasted in the following Q4, as people decided to wait until the next OS update to upgrade their PCs. I'm just speculating here, though. Does anyone have any better explanation for the last time there was a year-over-year decline?

True, but I would imagine there would have been a sharp decline in the previous quarters too. I don't have the data so I can't verify that. Your point may well be true.

Regardless I think most consumers buy a new PC because they want a new PC, regardless of the OS, and other market factors would be the major influence on numbers, not the OS running on the boxes.

The usual techie segment of the PC-using population is in full denial that the general public might not want to deal with the confusing, miserable hassle of maintaining PCs anymore now that smartphones and tablets do what they want but better. I don't know why it's impossible for these people to acknowledge what's happening around them, and no amount of hard figures will convince them that, yes we really are in a post-PC world.

I do not understand why tech writers are not willing to say that that PC sales are dropping because the new version of Windows is effing terrible. I mean, they just will not say it. It's always some other explanation, like tablets, when PCs have been climbing steadily during their entire rise.

So Win8 comes out, and wham PC sales actually drop, and nobody is willing to state the obvious.

2012 sales were way down long before Win8 came out, which only affected the last couple of months. Meanwhile, Win8 licenses are selling at the same clip as Win7 licenses did, despite the market declining to 2010 levels. That strongly implies that people are actively choosing Win8, and doing so in droves.

Does this just count OEM sales, or do they attempt to aggregate components sales as well? I don't think that the market of those who build computers for themselves instead of getting OEM systems could be very small.

Makes sense. 5 years ago everyone wanted to replace their dektops with shiny new notebooks. Now the desktops and notebooks are largely unchanged (for the vast majority that use them for media management, productivity, and communication). New sales are driven by new segments where people may not already have something. Makes sense that instead of spending that $500-1000 on a new desktop/notebook they spend it on something they may not already have like a tablet, ereader, or other portable device.

It's not that people aren't buying personal tech, it's that they are buying different classes of devices that they might not already own. No doubt the big OEMs are well aware of this, hence the glut of new tablets and other mobile-fied offerings.

Does this just count OEM sales, or do they attempt to aggregate components sales as well? I don't think that the market of those who build computers for themselves instead of getting OEM systems could be very small.

It is exceedingly small now. Unfortunately. Which is why there are only a fraction of the motherboard venders that there were six years ago. That market has caved in badly.

The usual techie segment of the PC-using population is in full denial that the general public might not want to deal with the confusing, miserable hassle of maintaining PCs anymore now that smartphones and tablets do what they want but better. I don't know why it's impossible for these people to acknowledge what's happening around them, and no amount of hard figures will convince them that, yes we really are in a post-PC world.

Except that iPads and smartphones can't perform all business tasks. So, tablets and smartphones to this point have only augmented PC's. Now, with Windows 8, a business user can have a tablet hybrid of some sort that can do everything.

And, from a corporate perspective... PC's are easy to maintain. iPads and smartphones are a pain in the ass to maintain. We might be entering an era where PC's are not the dominant primary device, but PC's are not going anywhere either. They will continue to be the most efficient tool for many people for years to come.

Wait a minute, 5 years ago? Isn't that when Vista came out? So the only two times in recent history that PC sales have declined year over year were at the debuts of Windows Vista and Windows 8? That's probably a comparison that Microsoft doesn't want people making...

Vista was released almost 6 years ago, in January to consumers (i.e. after Q4), so try again

But the fallout was pretty extensive, and may well have lasted in the following Q4, as people decided to wait until the next OS update to upgrade their PCs. I'm just speculating here, though. Does anyone have any better explanation for the last time there was a year-over-year decline?

True, but I would imagine there would have been a sharp decline in the previous quarters too. I don't have the data so I can't verify that. Your point may well be true.

Regardless I think most consumers buy a new PC because they want a new PC, regardless of the OS, and other market factors would be the major influence on numbers, not the OS running on the boxes.

The previous quarters don't matter as in this article they are comparing this xmas quarter to the previous years quarter. So, five years ago on the year when Vista was released xmas sales of PCs dropped compared to the previous years xmas sales, like now. So it looks like win8 pc was very unpopular xmas gift, like Vista was.

A 10 year old XP era machine can still do everything the average user needs (surf the web, etc.), thus less people need to upgrade or replace old hardware as it hasn't stopped being functional. (Unless it is being used as a high end gaming PC/design/etc.)

Just to be clear, this is the same PC business HP decided they wanted to get rid of 18 months ago (and then changed their mind about), right?

Came in to post the same thing. Apparently #1 or #2 wasn't good enough for Leo Apotheker and the board since HP weren't making Apple-like margins on their PC products. The mind boggles...

Just because HP's PC business is big does not make it a good thing to own. To answer that question you would have to know how much money it makes from PCs (likely less than Apple's Mac business), what the PROFIT growth prospects are like (probably modest), what buyers are willing to pay for the business, and whether there is a viable alternative place to invest the proceeds from any sale. None of us know the answers to these questions. Apotheker thought it wasn't worth owning, the board disagreed.

A 10 year old XP era machine can still do everything the average user needs (surf the web, etc.), thus less people need to upgrade or replace old hardware as it hasn't stopped being functional. (Unless it is being used as a high end gaming PC/design/etc.)

True, but why did the actual downturn in demand take 10 years to occur? That's the interesting question people are discussing here.