Game 2013.143: Tigers at Royals

82-60, first place, 5.5 games ahead of the Indians (violation of agreement, currently under review).

We need a replacement for the “good game” cliche. Let’s go with well-played loss. Losing 4-3 gives the Royals the series edge at 8-7 and drops Detroit’s record to 15-21 in one-run games.

Duffy didn’t throw enough strikes for the Tigers to hit, and apparently their bats rusted quickly (5 hits overall on the night). When you insist on allowing Royals to reach, you can expect some stress from KC’s smartball attack, which might result in either a gutsy win or a gutsy loss. One oops that Salvador Perez put into the left field stands made it a gutsy loss for Verlander, who didn’t pitch badly at all. Big fail for the Tigers was Torii “No Plate Discipline” Hunter, who crapped out on two big runners-on opportunities, to bookend Fielder’s popout with the bases loaded against Wade Davis. Verlander and the pen kept it close. Put this one down on the hitters, yesterday’s heroes.

In the bottom of the first, Brayan Pena overthrew the throw back to the mound. Fortunately, Ramon Santiago was backing up the play. I was as confused as everyone on the field when baserunner Emilio Bonifacio, who had been on first base, walked back to the KC dugout after sliding into second. Apparently the play was ruled a “caught stealing.” I’ll have to look that one up. Oh, there it is, under “Perez, Salvador.” Really – great job, Brayan.

Speaking of great jobs, the gem was Fielder to Pena to nail Lough at the plate. Perfection. That calls to mind a play from Friday that didn’t get enough recognition, another play at the plate involving another good stop from Fielder but a high throw that a leaping Avila turned into an out. A play like that makes up for a bowl of strikeouts. A small bowl. Which wouldn’t include the terrible swing at ball four from Holland in last night’s game. Very bad at a very bad time, and this from a guy who knows the strike zone. But back to defense last night: Fielder was sharp (everyone was) on a 3-6-1 beauty, and Santiago turned a flashy play at SS worthy of Iglesias, albeit with less fanfare.

Nick Castellanos’s “first MLB hit” will be overturned as an error on 1B Eric Hosmer.

Looking over my stats on the starters from yesterday yielded a few interesting things, in combination with things I already know:

1. There’s a kind of “Pythagorean record” for pitchers you can derive from it.

SANCHEZ should be 14-9, is 13-7

VERLANDER should be 14-12, is 12-10 (not including last night)

FISTER should be 13-9, is 12-7

SCHERZER should be 21-4, is 19-2

PORCELLO should be 15-9, is 11-8

“Should be” is a rather simple take on leaving with a lead or a deficit. But everything is pretty close to actual… except for Porcello. I think I’ve been too hard on Rick. The bullpen has allowed more of his runners to score, I suspect, and both bats and bullpen have let him down at an above-average rate. I hereby declare Porcello to be Best Fifth Starter In The AL Or Portions Thereof.

2. Fister is the king of both lack of run support and squandering what support he gets.

3. The Tigers bullpen sure does give up a lot of runs, and most of them are their own. They were also 14-21 last time I checked, which speaks for itself.

4. The Tigers starters sure don’t leave the game down in the score very often, and give the hitters some credit there.

I don’t have numbers to prove it, but I believe that defense has actually become a strength of the Detroit Tigers, Don’t tell them I said that.

Tuiasosopo’s strikeout rate is beginning to reach the Red Zone, or should we say Avila Zone. Martinez and Infante are outstanding on an outstanding team at avoiding the strikeout.

6 Tigers regulars are above-average in line drive %. Tops is Jackson at 29%. Cabrera, Dirks (very good news), Fielder, Martinez, and Infante are also there. Kelly is even closer to the bottom than he used to be at 18%.

22% of all baserunners present score when Cabrera is at the plate. Tuiasosopo is next at 18%. Well below league average at 10% and less are Santiago, Dirks, and Iglesias.

The unchallenged king of the GIDP is Martinez – 19% of opps. Meanwhile, all the Tigers left fielders are excellent at avoiding it.

Scoring after reaching base is partly a function of who bats behind you, but Jackson’s 48% is still outstanding. Pena looks like he can really chugalug for a catcher, but the numbers tell a different story. 19%.

Only Cabrera, Tuiasosopo, and Fielder hit home runs at above league-average rate. Cabrera is, in fact, the only truly outstanding power supply on the team, giving the lie to the idea of Detroit as a team of bashers. Solid in the gap power/doubles department, though – too bad some of them are hard-pressed to leg out a double.

It’s hard to accumulate a lot of net positive or negative WPA over the course of a season. Cabrera’s 6.5 is astounding. In terms of consistent game-changing hitting, added all up, there’s been Cabrera, Fielder, and Peralta, and essentially no one else (lots of Tigers on the plus side, however). Dirks -2.2 is equally astounding. Boesched? Oh yeah.

Who are the best hitters, at bat by at bat? RE24 might not tell the WHOLE story, but it doesn’t lie. Here’s best to worst (for the season, mind you – the numbers pile up and obscure more recent trends we are well aware of):

Friday night was a blip in what has been an offensive funk that started with the blanking by Cleveland last Sunday. The Tigers this season have tended to snap out of such week-long funks after, well, a week. Here’s hoping they do, because it’s the Al Central crown or nothing. There’s not gonna be a wild card from this division.

judpma

September 9, 2013 at 2:04 am

now watch KC lay down for three with the Indians and come back and spank the Pussycats again!

Latest Comments

Coleman http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=12413132&categoryid=2521705
On the other hand, Verlander is "confident" and "ready to go," so there's that.

Smoking Loon Good article, Kevin.
Did anyone else have the thought last year that perhaps the biggest problem with Verlander was... predictability? He

Kevin in Dallas Neither does this story.
http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2015/02/detroit_tigers_bring_back_righ_1.html

Kevin in Dallas This picture does not instill a whole bunch of confidence.
http://www.mlive.com/tigers/#/0

Coleman Check out this one: http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2015/02/report_relief_pitcher_joba_cha.html#incart_more_sports
He shaved the beard! And looks like he dropped a few pounds too.

StorminNorman$ http://m.tigers.mlb.com/news/article/110232762/joba-chamberlain-signs-with-detroit-tigers
low price, potential high yield... or maybe not. Whatever the case, Joba certainly said all the right things.

Jim EggersUSMC I concur K in D, am hoping for a good but not great season from JV. Seemed to me he

StorminNorman$ Great info/research Kevin! One point to clarify and factor into the analysis: JV did make $20M last year, but

Coleman Verlander had core muscle surgery last January. Could it be, at his age, and with the type of pitcher he

Jim EggersUSMC I am sorry to hear that, was looking forward to your blunt and accurate reports... as far as next year