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NBA Picks

Back Raptors -7.5 vs. Bucks for NBA Picks

The Toronto Raptors have been crushing the NBA lines, and with Friday’s win over the Indiana Pacers, the Raps proved they can hang with the league’s best. Now that have to deal with the league-worst Milwaukee Bucks.

Gosh, look at that, the Toronto Raptors
just beat the Indiana Pacers. Again. Ho-hum. This time around, it was Toronto
(+1.5 at home) winning 102-94 and improving to 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS this year
against Indiana. And the Raptors did it without two of their best players: Kyle
Lowry (19.9 PER) and Amir Johnson (15.6 PER). I believe that there is what they
call a “statement” game. Here’s the question, though: Was anyone in the NBA
betting public paying attention? And a follow-up: Will they start now?

Seeing as the Raptors (44-32 SU, 45-29-2
ATS) have zero media footprint below the 49th Parallel, and the Pacers are
pretty small-market themselves – not to mention 7-11 SU and 2-16 ATS in their
last 18 games – I’m guessing “No.” And “No.” Despite all the winning, Toronto
has managed to stay undervalued and remain the most profitable team in the
Eastern Conference. But don’t touch that dial, because the Raptors have a very
special challenge lined up for Saturday night. Schlemiel! Schlimazel!
Hasenpfeffer Incorporated!

[gameodds]5/261064/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

We’re
Gonna Do ItThat’s right, it’s everybody’s favorite
last-place team in the NBA, the Milwaukee Bucks (14-62 SU, 34-42 ATS). Our
zany, blue-collar heroes are always getting themselves in trouble; on Friday,
they went to the big city to play the Chicago Bulls, and they got more than
they bargained for in a 102-90 loss, just barely missing the cash as 11.5-point
road dogs. Oh well. Maybe the Bucks didn’t win, but at least they learned the
value of teamwork and friendship.

So that’s another “L” for the Bucks, who have
dropped 12 of their last 13 games to maintain their grip on last place.
However, unless you’re new to betting on the NBA, you’re probably aware that
Milwaukee has been highly profitable of late: 9-2 ATS in February, 10-7 ATS in
March, and… 0-2 ATS in April. Okay, that does spoil the narrative a little. It
also suggests the market may have adjusted to Milwaukee since that excellent
run in February.

King
of KensingtonIf the Bucks have indeed used up all their
betting value, that makes the pick for Saturday’s matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, TSN) a
lot easier. Toronto has opened as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 196 –
not much hesitation from the oddsmakers there, even though we still don’t know
whether Lowry or Johnson will suit up for the Raptors. We do know they made the
trip to Milwaukee, though. We also know Toronto doesn’t have another game until
Wednesday.

So do the Raptors roll the dice on using
Lowry (knee) or Johnson (ankle), or do they give them an extended layoff? Like
I said, we don’t know. Maybe the players won’t even know themselves until
game-time. But we’ve got something of a safety cushion when it comes to betting
the Raptors: Nando de Colo (10.7 PER), who’s had some very good moments since
coming over from the San Antonio Spurs at the trade deadline. De Colo had 10
points and five assists for the Raps in 23 important minutes off the bench
against Indiana.

The Raptors also have Patrick Patterson
(17.0 PER) back in the lineup at power forward, and they’ve got Tyler
Hansbrough (13.3 PER) and Chuck Hayes (10.2 PER) coming off the bench, so
Toronto can absorb Johnson’s lost minutes for now. I’m content to take the
Raptors here on the assumption that Lowry and Johnson aren’t playing. If they
do? That’s like extra gravy on your poutine.