The fifth and final IRONMAN regional championship of the year kicks off Sunday in Frankfurt, Germany. As it has done since its inception, this midsummer classic promises to deliver an amazing show.

by Michael Lovato

Multiple IRONMAN champions toe the line on both women’s and men’s sides at Sunday's Mainova IRONMAN European Championship, as the battle to earn a share of the $150,000, 4000 KPR points and the highly coveted automatic Kona qualification commences. In typical fashion, this race has drawn a host of talented and race-proven athletes. While the battle of the top Germans typically takes center stage in Frankfurt, it’s normal for a few top foreigners to vie for the title.

It’s impossible to look past last year’s winner, former IRONMAN world champion Sebastian Kienle, as the favorite. The confident German races with the belief that only two races truly matter: Frankfurt and Kona. A regular visitor to the podium for each race, Kienle has what it takes to deliver big.

Other Germans who will force him to execute his best include last year’s second-place male, Andi Boecherer; 2016 Kona third place finisher Patrick Lange; and double IRONMAN 70.3 world champion Michael Raelert.

Four-time IRONAMN winner Patrik Nilsson (SWE) is a top contender, as is Jeff Symonds (CAN), and James Cunnama (RSA)—all of whom have won multiple IRONMAN titles. Other contenders include Clemente Alonso-Mckernan (ESP), Cyril Viennot (FRA), and Bas Diederen (NED).

Kienle ... has worked so hard to convert himself into one of the world’s most complete athletes that I don’t believe he will show a single weakness on the day.

The race starts in the calm waters of the Langener Waldsee, just outside downtown Frankfurt. Water temperatures have always been borderline wetsuit legal for the professional field, so times vary dramatically across the single-loop swim course. After approximately 1500m, athletes will face a short beach run before diving in to tackle the closing 2300m.

Last year Kienle lost only four minutes to the fastest swimmers, and this allowed him to ride right to the front of the field and enjoy the company and accountability of other strong cyclists. Kienle will attempt to duplicate that outcome again this year. But with one of the quickest swims in the field, Andi Boecherer will waste no time getting to the front and attempting to create an insurmountable gap between himself and his dangerous countrymen. Both Kienle and Patrick Lange have run PR’s that exceed his own, so coming off the bike within two to four minutes of these guys will not be a desirable scenario.

Without a doubt, Marko Albert (EST) will lead the charge out of the swim, and he will exit the water with Boecherer and a nice gap to the other contenders. Once onto the bike, I expect two or three larger packs to form. With over sixty male professionals in the field, and a relatively fast course, it will be difficult to see much separation until the guys hit the challenging climb of Bad Vilbel.

There is no question that to win the race in Frankfurt will require an aggressive bike ride, one that is fast from the outset, and one that is backed up by a sub 2:45 marathon. Weather conditions are projected to be fast on race day, and that should further encourage athletes to race hard from the gun.

We will all be experiencing a bit of deja vu as we will again see the dynamic duo of Kienle and Boecherer link up later on in the bike ride (which has been shortened to 177km this year due to construction on the race route). Those two will enter T2 together, after each lighting into sub-4:05 bike splits. The question will remain who has saved enough energy to hold off the hard charging Patrick Lange, one of only a few IRONMAN athletes to have ever notched sub 2:40 marathon splits.

Others who have a shot at running their way into the top five include speedsters Michael Raelert, James Cunnama, and Jeff Symonds. Each of those athletes have shown world class foot speed, and each has the tenacity to fight deep into the marathon to squeeze out a couple more minutes, or even seconds.

I predict the three-way battle for German dominance to go once again to Sebastian Kienle. He has worked so hard to convert himself into one of the world’s most complete athletes that I don’t believe he will show a single weakness on the day, and he will run a 2:43 marathon as a means to serve notice to his competitors that he ready to again be top German (winner) in Kona.

Throughout the course of the day, I think we will lose sight of the foreign competitors, with so much focus on the race up front. But later in the day, we’ll see Frenchman Cyril Viennot come through with an incredibly fast marathon to steal second place in the closing kilometer.

Fighting hard to hold the podium, we’ll see Boecherer overextend himself just a tad in the early stages of the marathon, and that will be just enough to allow Lange the chance to run through to third, with Boecherer holding strong for fourth. Fifth place will go to a resurgent James Cunnama, one of the sport’s hardest working and most underrated athletes.

The women’s race has fewer clear-cut favorites, as the collective female elite have be scattered across the European summer racing calendar, with other proven talents sitting out the 2017 season while on maternity leave.

I predict that Liz Lyles, whose run PR is a smoking 2:59, will be able to eliminate her disadvantage at T2, while running her way to victory—taking her second career IRONMAN regional championship title.

A careful examination of the field shows a few women immediately rising to the top of the list of likely candidates for the win. Included are double IRONMAN champ and 2016 Kona fourth-place finisher Anja Beranek (GER); recent IRONMAN Lanzarote winner, Lucy Charles (GBR), last year’s runner up Katja Konschak (GER); four-time IRONMAN winner (USA) Liz Lyles; and recent IRONMAN Asia-Pacific champion Sarah Crowley (AUS). If Corinne Abraham (GBR) toes the line a week after her second-place finish at IRONMAN Austria, it’s likely she’ll be a contender for at least some of the day before unavoidable fatigue catches her up.

The race will see much more separation from the outset as the women enter Langener Waldsee. The 26-person field will leave much more room between competitors as the women tackle the single lap swim. Their pace will likely be set by the likes of Lucy Charles, but Beranek and Laurel Wassner (USA) should not be too far behind.

Once on the bike, athletes such as Beranek, Charles, Crowley, and Diana Riesler (GER) will begin to assert their dominance. Riding hard will be a wise tactic, since Liz Lyles has been known to put together devastating bike-run combos en route to each of her four IRONMAN titles.

Possible threats to the top five will also come from the likes of Dimity-Lee Duke (AUS), Magali Tissyere (CAN), and last year’s fourth-place finisher Natascha Schmitt (GER).

Coming off her first IRONMAN win only six weeks ago, Lucy Charles will have high confidence she can get it done again, especially knowing the Frankfurt course is dramatically faster than that which she dominated back in May. She will be locked in a head-to-head battle all day long with Beranek, whose primary advantage comes from being buoyed by the local crowds, as German fans will always rally particularly hard for the local heroes.

Beranek and Charles will be focused too closely on one another, and their front-running battles will steal just enough power from their late-day strength. And I predict that Liz Lyles, whose run PR is a smoking 2:59, will be able to eliminate her disadvantage at T2, while running her way to victory—taking her second career IRONMAN regional championship title.

Lucy Charles will fight valiantly to hold onto second place, after spending much of the day up front. Third place will go to Anja Beranek, who’s hard fought battle will earn her a PR, enough points to qualify for Kona, and the glory of being top German.

Closing out the top five will be Sarah Crowley, who will be carrying just a bit too much fatigue from her victory at the IRONMAN Asia-Pacific Championship Cairns, only four weeks ago. Fifth place will go to Natascha Schmitt.

Michael Lovato is an IRONMAN Live host, IRONMAN Certified Coach, and father. He lives in Boulder, Colo. with his family.