Prospects Will Break Your Heart

The Mid-Season Top 50 Prospects

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Before you dive into the list, a few explanations about the construction that might prove beneficial. Prospects currently playing at the major-league level were not eligible for this list. I also didn’t follow standard guidelines for rookie eligibility; rather, if a prospect has logged significant playing time at the highest level—be it the commonly recognized 50 innings for a pitcher, 130 at-bats for a hitter, or just under those magic plateaus—I made a judgment call as to whether or not his inclusion would add to the product. This list is about prospects, not major-league players masquerading as prospects because they fall just short of such recognized classifications. If a player has sipped a form of major-league coffee over the course of two seasons, he won’t be included on this list. These are all prospects currently playing in the minors, and only four players on the list have major-league experience of any kind. Because it’s a mid-season list and not the more comprehensive offseason production, I wanted the focus to be on the talent in the minors and not on those still wearing the label despite playing under the bright lights in the big parks.

Reason for Inclusion in Top 10: Buxton has the most exciting tool collection in the minors, which is why he ranks ahead of Taveras as the premier prospect in the game. The beauty of Buxton is the impact potential he has in all phases of the game, as the 19-year-old can go 1-for-5 at the plate but still patrol big swaths of real estate in center field and use his elite speed as a weapon on the bases. One scout source suggested his floor was Torii Hunter, which should be some indication just how high the ultimate ceiling could be. This is a special talent. You buy tickets to watch this kid play.

Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; likely to remain top prospect in the game.

Reason for Inclusion in Top 10: Taveras is the most gifted offensive talent on this list, and multiple sources have put an elite grade on his hit tool, suggesting that he has batting titles in his future. The 21-year-old will eventually settle in as a middle-of-the-order hitter at the highest level, where he should develop into a perennial all-star and possible MVP candidate if everything clicks……and it will click.

Reason for Inclusion in Top 10: The 20-year-old crushed in Double-A and earned a promotion to Pawtucket this June, making him the youngest player on the circuit. Bogaerts is a natural hitter who hasn’t even found his power stroke yet, and several sources think he could eventually develop into a .300 hitter with 30 bombs. Given the fact that he can stick at shortstop in the short term, Bogaerts has a chance to be one of the most rare commodities at the major-league level: a middle-of-the-order bat at a premium position, under team control for a very long time.

Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; likely to remain number three until major-league promotion.

Reason for Inclusion in Top Ten: Lindor is a highly instinctual player with Gold Glove caliber defensive skills at shortstop, and enough offensive potential to be more than just a down-the-lineup hitter. His advanced feel for the game and chops with the glove are going to propel him to the major leagues faster than people might realize, and I wouldn’t be surprised if more offensive upside reveals itself several years down the line, after his wizardry at shortstop is already firmly established at the highest level.

Prospect Trajectory: Down; Lindor has reached his highest point; will remain in top tier, but likely to drop given crop of offensive talent on the rise in the minors.

Reason for Inclusion in Top 10: I can’t speak for everybody, but Bradley’s command woes in his debut campaign hurt his stock when I was putting together the 101, and after watching him this spring and reading several reports on him in the last few months, I realize now that I was foolish to discount the profile and the raw stuff because of a bad stretch of control. The body, the makeup, the arsenal, the potential all suggested a top of the rotation ceiling when he was drafted, and that hasn’t changed much now that the 20-year-old is shoving it in Double-A. Given his overall profile, I’m not sure a healthy Bundy would rank higher. The title of top arm belongs to Bradley without an asterisk.

Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; likely to remain in the debate for top arm in the minors until major league promotion.

Reason for Inclusion in Top 10: Sano has been climbing up prospect lists since he first signed with the Twins as a 16-year-old, and after an offensive explosion in the Florida State League, the 20-year-old is now among the top prospects in the game. The backbone of his game is the enormous raw power, which most scouts feel comfortable throwing an elite grade on. The hit tool is still a question mark, as is his defensive profile, but both the bat and the glove have received positive reviews in 2013, a good sign that Sano might offer more than just prodigious power.

Prospect Trajectory: Down; the Double-A test is upon Sano, and given his age and exploitable weaknesses at the plate, his stock could slip if he struggles to make consistent contact. Given his offensive potential and adjustment potential, he isn’t likely to fall too far down the list.

Reason for Inclusion in Top 10: Yelich makes a Sanoian jump up the list despite missing time to injury and not setting the stat sheet on fire in his Double-A debut. He was underrated by us coming into the season, an error I put on myself because I was more concerned with positional value than the quality of the hit tool. Yelich has a beautiful swing, one that is both efficient and powerful, and he absolutely rakes against right-handed pitching. His bat is going to play at the highest level, and the line-drive pop of the present will eventually turn into over-the-fence power as he continues to mature.

Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; Yelich won’t be long for the minors, and is unlikely to rise or fall much before he finds himself in the major league mix.

Reason for Inclusion in Top 10: Gausman felt the wrath of major-league bats in his brief five-start stay on the scene, but the LSU product has all the characteristics of a successful starter, including a plus-plus fastball and execution of a plus changeup. His control needs to turn into command to find sustainable success at the highest level, but the 22-year-old’s return trip to the minors should be brief and his long-term outlook in the majors should be bright.

Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; Gausman will most likely finish the season on the major-league roster and lose eligibility for the 2014 BP 101.

Reason for Inclusion in the Top 10: The 20-year-old owns an electric plus-plus fastball, a cutter he can throw in the low 90s (I’ve seen it up to 93 mph), and a sharp vertical curveball, but the command can come and go, the changeup is a below average offering, and the curveball, despite the depth, is very inconsistent. The statistical results are there, but more minor league seasoning is required of the future frontline starter before he is ready to assume that reality.

Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; while it is conceivable that the promotion of his peers above him on this list will allow Walker to move up a few spots next offseason, he is unlikely to leap into the top five and eclipse Bradley as the top arm in the minors.

Reason for Inclusion in Top 10: After finishing the ’12 season by absolutely shoving it in three Double-A starts, Taillon has picked up where he left off and continues to flash the top of the rotation upside that made him the top arm in the 2010 draft class. The plus-plus fastball/curveball combo is going to carry the 21-year-old to the highest level, but continued refinement of his changeup and fastball command could make him an impact arm, a player that could form a potent one-two punch with Gerrit Cole atop the Pirates rotation.

Prospect Trajectory: Down; Taillon is one of the best young arms in the minors and maintains a high ceiling, but the developmental struggles of a 21-year-old in the high minors could push him down the list a few spots by next offseason.

Prospect Trajectory: Down; in a prospect world where offensive production is king, the brilliant defensive profile of Hedges will get overlooked; simply put, Hedges could emerge as an elite defender with an average bat, which will make him a more valuable major league player than he is a minor league prospect. I have no problem being this high on Hedges.

Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; Castellanos should see significant time at the major-league level in 2014, and despite swinging a good stick in Triple-A, is unlikely to climb much higher as a prospect.

Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; has elite potential as a closer; near top of the rotation upside as a starter; higher risk in rotation; unlikely to jump much higher because of questions about future role.

Prospect Trajectory: Down; Sanchez was underrated coming into the year at no. 47, and somehow feels overrated at the mid-season point; mixed reviews of Sanchez’s 2013 performance; high upside but equally high risk; bat is very good; positional home is still subject of debate.

Prospect Trajectory: Up; Soler’s power is legit, and as he matures at the plate, he will continue to tap into the tool in game action; lacks elite upside, but could jump up the list if the power plays. People love power.

Prospect Trajectory: Up; difficult task to rank players without any professional experience; 1:1 candidate with the stuff to take a huge leap in the rankings if the production matches the pre-draft reports; low starting point on list because of questions about future role.

Prospect Trajectory: Up; mid-season status effected by lost developmental time; served suspension for using a naturally growing non-drug; has offensive upside to mash his way up the list with a strong second half.

Prospect Trajectory: Down; overrated coming into the year because of elite speed and defensive potential at premium spot; bat has big question marks and could continue to drop him down the list as the season progresses.

Prospect Trajectory: Up; 17-year-old position prospect in a full-season league; developmental ebbs and flows, but first-division potential because of plus defensive skills at a premium position and offensive upside; could develop into top tier prospect.

Prospect Trajectory: Up; Urias is a 16-year-old lefty missing more than a bat an inning at the full-season level; his ultimate upside is still very abstract, but his prospect star is very much on the rise.

Prospect Trajectory: Up; the 20-year-old keeps raking at the plate; questions about long-term defensive home could prevent massive leap, but the bat could put him in the discussion for a much higher tier.

Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; was underrated on offseason list; Osuna is a mature arm despite being only 18 years old, and the production should keep him in his current prospect range; lack of projection and a high maintenance body could prevent him from jumping into the rarified air of the top tier of arms in the minors.

Prospect Trajectory: Up; most likely still an underrated prospect; questions about ultimate role add risk to a higher ranking; has no. 2 starter upside and a floor of a late-innings bullpen arm; strong second half and improved command could lead to huge offseason jump up the list.

Prospect Trajectory: Up; Butler’s first half pushed him into the Top 50 mix, and a strong second half will push him even further heading into 2014. The stuff is very legit, and the 22-year-old could find himself in Double-A before the end of the season.

Prospect Trajectory: Up; will continue to climb prospect lists; plus raw stuff and feel for pitching; listed above several other promising prospects because of combination of age/production/projection.

Major League ETA: 2016

*You can make a case for 25-plus prospects on the back third of the list, and I spent the better part of three weeks polling scouts and player development sources to listen to those cases. As a subjective exercise, favoritism and familiarity are heavy players in the opinion, and recent on-the-field production can certainly help tilt a close race in favor of one player over another. I could toy with the list for the rest of the month and not find consensus or comfort in the process or the product, but eventually you have to make a decision and slap it down on the table.

Jason, do you subscribe to the general BP position that health is a skill, or at least a tool? If so, I'm a bit surprised that Oscar Taveras remains as high as #2, as he is showing some disturbing signs of a deficiency in that particular tool. Still a brilliant offensive prospect, but you can't get at-bats while you're on the disabled list...

Strange to see no Rangers, especially considering how loaded their farm system is (albiet at low levels). Not shocked he fell, but no consideration for Olt considering it is now looking like his early season struggles were due to vision problems?

I think the dry eye was certainly a factor, but Olt isn't going to be a great hitter. I like the bat, but his value is in the power potential and the defensive profile. I think he has 25+ home run potential, but his game will always feature a lot of swing and miss.

Jason, first of all, thank you for putting this together! You, Zach, and the others do terrific work here. BP is my favorite source for prospect-following.

I'm curious about Joc Pederson (currently slashing .294/.378/.500 with 11 HR's and 21 SB's). He's mashing in AA as a 21 year-old (showing that his Cal league numbers weren't a mirage), and playing an up the middle defensive position. Why isn't he ranked more highly? It seems like he should be somewhere around the Wong/Marisnick/Cecchini group.

I'd rank him much higher if I thought he was likely to stay up-the-middle at the highest level. In the end, I think its a LF profile, which is fine, but it also puts more pressure on the bat. Top 101 guy, but not Top 50 ( for me).

Jason what questions do you have about Franco's long-term defense at 3rd? From everything I've read he's going to be solid defensively despite his lack of running speed. Also surprised to see Tocci in the top 75, don't we need to see him grow into even a little bit of power before ranking that high?

Franco has slow feet; great hands, but slow feet. I'm not sure what that body looks like in 3-5 years, either. I think its a 1B profile in the end, but the bat is real.

Tocci belonged in the Top 50 discussion. He's 17 and in a full-season league. He is struggling, which is natural, but he's not overwhelmed by the competition and that speaks to his skill-set and makeup. I like him a lot.

How is this for a "What about this guy?" query: Cesar Puello ... He has a .338/.406/.616 line in AA. He turned 22 in April and really seems to be having the type of year I thought he might be capable of, combining HR power with speed. Thoughts?

Out of curiousity, what separates Bradley at #5 from the pack of Syndergaard, Sanchez and Guerreri in the low 20s? ETA to the show? Seems they all have the frontline starter upside and are relatively similar prospects (age, size, stuff etc), but I'm just curious what makes Bradley stand out more and why he's the closest to being called up to the big club.

I think he has a better combination of now stuff and arsenal projection, and based on every report I've ever read--and in my own personal experiences watching the player and listening to the player discuss pitching --his work ethic and makeup are elite. All three of the arms you listed could get there, but they aren't on his level yet. Syndregaard gaining quickly, though.

Both are high-ceiling prospects, so yes, both could find their way onto the 101 with strong second half performances. The scouting is already there. I've seen both of them a bunch and I think they both are going to hit, especially Guzman.

He was close, but he didn't make it because I liked a few more players more than I liked him. I disagree that if he moves to 2B he's an all-star, but I do think he develops into a quality major leaguer. I like the bat.

What odds at this point would you give for Lance McCullers managing to avoid the bullpen as an eventual destination? What's changed, if anything, about his profile to better suggest that he's a plausible starter?

He's been solid, but I wouldn't say that he's been excellent. I think he ends up in a 7th inning role eventually, but perhaps he can carve out a role in the back of a rotation. That's a good player, but not really a top 101 type.

I wouldn't rank him number one, but it's difficult to take a player raking at the major league level and compare him with players still in the minors. It's impossible to remove that knowledge from the equation.

Curious if Kyle Gibson (player from my favorite team) missed the list due to his impending MLB start on Friday or because he just missed. He is getting to be a bit of a senior citizen on these prospect lists.

Also, I am super-nervous that Buxton is being overhyped. Also excited that he might not be.

What does it mean to be the "best" prospect? Would you rather have Buxton or Taveras?

Taveras is a 21-year old in AAA, and he's put up a 320/376/517 line as a professional so far. I can't think of any reason to ever rate a player in High-A above that. It seems totally detached from the reality that these players are being prepared to play Major League Baseball.

I am glad to see all of the high ceiling prospects at the top of this list. It bodes well for MLB's future. But to say that any 19 year old in A-ball has a ~floor~ of multiple All-Star appearances and a 16+ year career is a bit absurd. I hope he's the next Willie Mays, but there have been way too many next-Willie Mays to suggest that any prospect is a sure thing.

It does if you understand what I mean by trajectory. His previous ranking doesn't influence the trajectory, which is a projection of his future rank as it relates to next off-season's 101. Cecchini didn't enter the year as a top 101 prospect, but thanks to an explosive first half, he finds himself ranked #39. However, I am suggesting that his trajectory will be trending down going forward. The trajectory is the will be and not the was.

Bundy's injury seems like it might be serious enough to knock him off this list completely. ("Bundy will be examined by both team orthopaedic surgeon Dr. John H. Wilckens and Dr. James Andrews.") Meyer's shoulder seems like it might become a major concern as well.

Dylan Bundy (elbow) is headed to see Dr. James Andrews after being examined by Dr. John Wilckens on Tuesday.
Orioles manager Buck Showalter wouldn't offer what Tuesday's diagnosis was other than to say "there's some potential for some good things and some potential for some things we'll have to continue to work at." The young right-hander was originally diagnosed with tightness in his right flexor mass, though it's not clear after Monday's setback if he might be dealing with something more serious.

Mike Olt, ranked number 30 on the top 101 list going into the sesaon, is amnog a handful of players from the front half of that list who neither moved onto the majors nor retained their status as a top 50 prospect. Olt, of course, had a disasterously bad start to the season, although it was later explained as being due to vision issues. Since returning in early June he has looked a lot like Mike Olt looks (plenty of power, some swing and miss) yet he apparently wasn't considered for inclusion on this list. Just how much has Olt hurt his prospect status this season with his performance, or is more about his age and lack of obvious path to the majors