History shows little chance of AU upset

Saturday

Nov 29, 2008 at 12:01 AM

By Adam JonesStaff Writer

TUSCALOOSA | The Iron Bowl. Rivalry game. Anything goes.Throw out the records.Except — don’t. In fact, dust them off. The record books for this in-state blood feud point decidedly to a Crimson Tide victory today, and there isn’t much in the records for hopeful Auburn fans seeking an upset.If the Auburn Tigers manage to beat Alabama today, it would be one of the biggest upsets since the series restarted in 1948. The chasm between the two teams’ records entering the game is one of the widest in the series, and the bulk of upsets in the annual game come when the teams are much more evenly matched before kickoff.“In the profession of being a pundit, you never like to say so-and-so has no chance, but we’re close to it here,” said Paul Finebaum, longtime sports columnist and sports radio host. “You can almost get up on a soapbox and say, ‘Auburn has no chance to win this game’ and probably live to tell about it.“Outside of the lunatic-fringe Auburn fan, you can’t find anyone who believes this game is going to go the other way.”History backs that up, and the bad news for Auburn fans rolls on.In the four previous games when one of the teams is ranked first in the Associated Press college football poll — 1957, 1961, 1973 and 1979 — the No. 1 team won.Want more good news, Tide fans?In three of those games the loser was unranked, as Auburn is heading into today’s game. In each of those games, the unranked team not only lost, but also was on the wrong end of some of the most lopsided victories in the series.In 1957, Auburn, 9-0, came to Legion Field in Birmingham and beat Alabama, 2-6-1, 40 to nothing. In 1961, undefeated Alabama returned the favor by whipping a 6-3 Auburn team 34 to zero. In 1973, another undefeated Alabama rolled up 35 points while a 6-4 Auburn team mustered — you guessed it — no points.So if those records people are urged to toss for this game are any guide, this year’s Iron Bowl should be a big, possibly shutout, win for Alabama.Tiger hopeWhere can Auburn fans find hope in sorting through the records? There isn’t much, but upsets do happen.Of course, what defines an upset victory is subjective. A lot goes into deciphering which team is favored to win: weather, injuries, quality of other opponents, momentum in the games running up to the rivalry and, more recently, home-field advantage.However, based on which team had a better record coming into the game, there have been 15 “upsets” out of 60 games since 1948, meaning a team with fewer wins than its rival about one out of every four games.Still, 10 of those games barely count as upsets. In those games, the losing team came in having won less than 20 percent more of its games than the upset winner. And, in fact, some aren’t remembered as upsets since, as previously noted, a won-loss record isn’t the best way to measure a team.“People have wondered why are there so few upsets in the Iron Bowl, and my own theory — and I don’t think I’ll win a Nobel Prize for this — unlike another game, you’re just not going to look past this game,” Finebaum said. “But I do think if Alabama had not lost six in a row [to Auburn], you could see them looking past this game.”There are some upsets with similarities to this year’s game. The 2002 game stands out, since an unranked Auburn team came to Tuscaloosa to face a top-10 Alabama team that year.In 2002, the Tide was ranked ninth. Auburn’s offensive backfield was rocked with injuries, but off-field issues, such as the UA head coach flirting with another job, hung over the game.Auburn came out of Bryant-Denny Stadium a 10-point winner, and upheld the lone statistic Auburn fans can pin their hopes on: The Tigers have never lost in Tuscaloosa.That year was also only the second time an unranked team beat a top-10 team in the series. The other was in 1985, when unranked Alabama toppled seventh-ranked Auburn on a last-minute field goal.But even though a quarter of the 60 games in the modern series are technically upsets, not all are created equal.There are five upsets in the series in which one team came into the game having won at least 20 percent more of its games than its rival. Two of those, a 1989 Auburn win and a 1990 Alabama win, are still minor upsets despite the disparity. In all three years, the upset winner was a solid team.The big threeWhich brings the story to the three greatest upsets in the series. In all, a team with a mediocre or losing record before the game took down its rival, as Auburn hopes for today.It’s debatable which is greatest, but based on the records entering the game, the 1949 game is tops.Alabama crushed Auburn 55-0 in 1948, the first year of the renewal and still the largest margin of victory in the series. Auburn was in the midst of a woeful decade in 1949, and at 1-4-3, came in winners of just 31 percent of their games. Prognosticators of the era thought the Tide would dominate the series for years to come.And although some of Alabama’s earlier glory had faded, the Tide was a respectable program and entered 6-2-1, winners of 72 percent of their games. Auburn won 14-13 that year.The next biggest upset came in 2001. Auburn had won 78 percent of their games, while Alabama won 44 percent of theirs. The Tigers, 7-2, needed to beat either Alabama or LSU in the last two games of the season to make it to Atlanta for the Southeastern Conference championship game.Alabama came into Jordan-Hare Stadium for the 2001 Iron Bowl at 4-5 with no quality wins to hang their hat upon. In what should have been an Auburn victory, Alabama came out with a 31-7 thumping.Just behind both is the 1984 Iron Bowl. Auburn had won 73 percent of their games, while Alabama had won 40 percent.Auburn was 8-3 before the game. Alabama was 4-6, having racked up its first losing season in 27 years. Auburn was ranked 11th, while Alabama fell out of the polls after losing the first two games of the season.Playing for pride, Alabama beat Auburn 17-15.Anecdotally, at least, for most fans it’s probably the greatest upset in the series.“Perceptively, 1984 is an interesting point to remember,” Finebaum said. “I don’t remember the point spread, but as shocking at it was, the gulf between the two teams wasn’t as dramatic [as this year.] Still, very few people gave Alabama a chance.”Nothing comparesIn each of the three biggest upsets, the loser had problems before kickoff. By comparison, this year’s Alabama squad has shown few flaws.The 1984 Auburn squad had high hopes, but stumbled out of the gate, losing its first two games and another mid-season matchup to Florida. Even though it would have clinched a conference title with a win, it wasn’t the powerhouse it was billed to be preseason.In 2001, Auburn and Alabama ended with the same record, 7-5, and had the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorists attacks not pushed back football games across the nation to the last week of the season, the two teams likely would have met with more evenly matched records.In 1949, Auburn was bad, but Alabama wasn’t ranked either.None of the past upsets provide a blueprint for an Auburn victory today. They simply don’t compare.Though 2002 and 1985 stand out as an unranked team beating its top-10 rival, neither are synonyms to this fall.The 2002 Auburn upset, based on records, wasn’t monumental. At 9-2, Alabama’s was only two games better than Auburn, 7-4. In 1985, Auburn, 8-2, was only a half game better than its rival, 7-2-1, before the game.And the four times when a team with a losing record entering the game won — 1949, 1951, 1984 and 2001 — none came when the supposed favorite was in the top 10, much less ranked first. In 1951, a 4-6 Alabama team toppled a 5-4 Auburn squad.This year, the chasm is wider between the rivals. Undefeated Alabama has won 55 percent more games, the sixth widest difference in winning percentage in the modern series. The 1949 upset game is the 10th-widest gap.This season, the distance between Alabama and Auburn is comparable only to the three times a No. 1 team creamed its unranked rival.“The easiest answer in all of football to why there are so few upsets is that if you connect history through every game, the better team usually wins,” Finebaum said.So, for Auburn, maybe throwing out the records is a good idea.

Reach Adam Jones at adam.jones@tuscaloosanews.com or 205-722-0230.

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