Given the split in the LP vote it would appear that on these figures. Michael D would make up the 2% on McGuiness on Finlay transfers, and while Crowley might push Bertie ahead, transfers from McGuiness would most likely make the final count a run off between Norris and Higgins (my money on Norris on those figures, although you wouldn’t know for sure where those FF transfers would go).

Party origin of the first preferences (below) is interesting, with Norris most popular among LP, then OTH supporters. Surprisingly, he is as popular among SF voters as FG, although it should be rememebred that there is a FG option on the ballot here, and no SF one.

Michael D comes second to Norris ahead of Fergus Finlay among LP voters, although one presumes if everyone’s favourite Galway socialist (sorry Eamon!) is the LP candidate and Norris doesn’t make the ballot Higgins would be the front runner. One can’t however rule out Norris being nominated by another party, particularly as we’ll have a new Oireachtas when the nomination process kicks off. If FG couldn’t get a good candidate together and LP wouldn’t nominate Norris, it would not be surprising to see them take the opportunity to bask in the reflective glory….

Some will be shocked at 12% supporting Bertie, but I’m not. He still has his supporters, and he was canny enough to get out while he could.

Like this:

Related

8 Responses

I’m not sure that’s a fully cogent analysis or maybe I am just misreading it. Are you suggesting internal transfers between party candidates? It’s a single seater, there will only be one candidate per party. Crowley and Bertie will no more be transferring to each other than Higgins and Finlay will. It’s one or other, not both, in each case. Anyway, apologies if I am misreading something.

What is interesting is the party strengths on these figures: FF 22, FG 13, LAB 21, IND 27. The FG blip could be down to the other parties having double the choice with two possible candidates. Would be interesting if they had included Bruton as well.

Sorry if I wasn’t clear – it was more that as the poll was taken with a virtual ballot paper with multiple candidates, I was conducting a thought experiment as to how it would pan out if ppl had the choice (I don’t really think they’ll run multiple candidates!).

In reality, Norris probably won’t be on the ballot, arguably making the poll an unusually academic exercise, but the only way to try and find some indications in it are to assume the selection process makes similar choices as voters might (which they should if they’re trying to win). On that basis, LP choose Higgins (as more electable on this poll), FF do the same with Ahern (more contentious), and presumably the voters move pretty much the same way they would have as above.

Agree re Bruton (I presume you mean the elder) but its interesting that of the 35% saying they’d vote FG in this poll (I presume its the same survey as the one released a few days ago) only 18% say they are definite, and if that soft for GE, could be softer for Presidential with a strong Indo.

Also think that both Bertie and Crowley have a strong personal vote that might not ‘transfer’ (in either sense!) to one another.

Yes. And yet ….. given SF have (very rapidly) grown from about 7% to 14%, we can assume I think that a large section of their support aren’t really that interested in 1916, or even in some cases the national question in 2011 – they are angry with the political class and see SF as the strongest statement against that class available to them. It might be interesting as to what this might mean for lower SF preferences

@RepublicanSocialist – For me that result confirms a view that Sinn Féin are the most socially liberal party in Ireland and genuinely left wing and radical on social issues. I have seen this come through on a few polls and occasions. However, whilst I know the modern, urban, leftie SF may fit this category it doesn’t gel with the more conservative, dare I say Catholic, traditionalists of the old guard. I imagined a split would emerge at some stage between urban Marxists types and traditional rural conservatives. I know a few dissidents who fall into the latter category and were uncomfortable with the increasingly liberal social policies but it is not something I have seen on any more widespread level. Be interested in your thoughts, whether such a split has happened quietly or at all or if not where have the old guard gone? Were the traditionalists always socially ‘progressive’, seems unlikely perhaps?

[…] what does us tell us? The only other poll by a reputable company on this election was last January, before the GE, when RedC did a survey. On that occasion, 83% expressed an opinion, and so the […]

[…] what does us tell us? The only other poll by a reputable company on this election was last January, before the GE, when RedC did a survey. On that occasion, 83% expressed an opinion, and so the […]

[…] and reckon FG will be the most brutal in pulling us out of it. This opinion gets some weight from a Presidential poll taken before the GE, when RedC found that, if Mairead McGuinness ran for FG against Norris, Bertie, Crowley, Michael D […]