I am a MA/MBA candidate at the Lauder Institute and the Wharton School of Business. I focus on Russian politics, economics, and demography but also write more generally about Eastern Europe. Please note that all opinions expressed here are mine and mine alone and that I do not speak in an official capacity for Lauder, Wharton, Forbes or any other organization.
I do my best to inject hard numbers (and flashy Excel charts) into conversations and debates that are too frequently driven by anecdotes. In addition to Forbes I've written for True/Slant, INOSMI, Salon, the National Interest, The Moscow Times, Russia Magazine, the Washington Post, and Quartz.
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The opening of the trial of a Russian female punk band for an unsanctioned performance in Moscow’s Christ the Savior Cathedral in which they called on the Virgin Mary to drive away Putin is more than a travesty of justice. It is also an ominous hint that Putin now faces real political opposition in Russia, and may seek to defend himself with the help of a new authoritarian ideology…

As Russian observers have pointed out, they appealed to the Virgin, not to Satan, and although their song was unusual and not in keeping with the solemn setting, there was nothing about it that was prohibited. In fact, the message that the band was trying to convey was a fundamentally important one — that there is something anti-religious about the Russian Orthodox hierarchy’s subservience to Putin

This all sounds plausible enough. After all, it’s not hard to imagine why people would support the young, female rock musicians in their struggle against a brutal, corrupt, cynical, and increasing unpopular system. But what do Russians themselves think about Pussy Riot? Do they think their persecution is a “travesty of justice?” Do they see the young women of the punk rock art collective as blameless victims of a rapacious authoritarianism?

Well, thankfully, the Levada Center just released a new poll on Russians’ opinions of Pussy Riot, and it has some very interesting findings. First of all Russians do seem to genuinely think that the proposed punishment of anywhere between 2 and 7 years in prison is excessive and unfair. In July of 2012 only 33% of respondents said that this punishment was “adequate,” a figure significantly lower than the previous figures of 47% in April and 46% in March.

But thinking that punishment is “excessive” is very different from thinking that Pussy Riot shouldn’t be punished at all. What do Russians think should happen to the members of Pussy Riot? What do they think is appropriate punishment for the “punk prayer” that they delivered in the Cathedral of Christ the Savior? Well, the answer might disappoint you:

5%(!) of Russians think that the members of Pussy Riot don’t deserve any punishment at all. Five percent! The plurality of Russians apprently think that the appropriate punishment is forced labor. Forced labor! Does that sound like a society that is united in its support of the beleaguered punk rockers and that is greatly outraged over the Kremlin’s trampling on freedom of speech?

Now please don’t blame me for drawing attention to it, but doesn’t the information above seriously complicate the emerging narrative that the prosecution of Pussy Riot isn’t only a travesty of justice (it would seem quite obvious that it is a travesty of justice) but that it is deeply unpopular? Doesn’t the fact that Russians overwhelmingly support some kind of draconian punishment for the members of Pussy Riot do a lot to explain why the trial is, in fact, continuing?

Additionally, while it might seem plausible that the Orthodox Church has a PR nightmare on its hands, most Russians don’t appear to be particularly perturbed by its actions:

I personally find the Pussy Riot prosecution to be appalling and unjustifiable, but the world at large doesn’t appear particularly troubled about my personal opinion on this (or any other) issue. What really matters, what will determine the trial’s impact on Russia and its future development, is what Russians themselves think. And when you glance at the polling data, the Pussy Riot trial isn’t nearly as insane and self-defeating a decision as it might appear at first glance. Can Putin and his ilk overplay their hand? Absolutely. If they push for the maximum possible punishment, this could very easily blow up in their faces. But based on polling evidence, the court could force the members of Pussy Riot to do mandatory labor and the public would see this as a satisfying outcome.

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This is pretty much the worst response possible. Some infamous “Russian” vodka is bottled in Latvia actually. But if it makes it feel like your helping, go ahead and boycott something you know nothing about.

Well what’s wrong with my commenting today. I don’t have FB account but just wanted to say that Stoli is Latvian made. Russian grain and style perhaps, but distilled and bottled in Latvia. Has been since early Soviet days. This kind of boycott is typical of people who think they want to help a situation, but really deep down just want to hurt ordinary Russians. Because of their own ignorance and intolerance they don’t even understand they are just hurting Americans and Europeans, and Russia will never care. It’s very much reflective much western policy towards Russia, and it’s sad and sick.

You need a better translator. What you call “forced labor” is, in fact, known in English as “community service”. Those 29% are the people who think that swearing in a cathedral is not a good thing, but does not merit much more than a severe frown and slap on a wrist. Not all Russians are religious fanatics.

And 1967 Rolling Stones trial? Really? Did you just compare a political performance with recreational drug use? Those girls tried to make a difference, however misguided their methods.

And “принудительный” means “compulsory” or “forced.” Russia’s entire criminal justice system is an absolutely vicious and merciless one from top to bototm, and the punishments meted out for even minor offenses can be horrific. When Russians say they want the members of Pussy Riot to do “принудительные работы” I think they have some pretty tough treatment in mind, not simply picking up a few pieces of litter from the Garden Ring in the way Americans and Westerners would expect.

Part of the problem is that that question in the original survey is rather unfortunately worded – legally speaking, обязательные работы are indeed along the lines of “picking up a few pieces of litter from the Garden Ring,” while “принудительные работы” are a significantly harsher punishment, the kind of compulsory labor that can take you away from your home and job (but does not include confinement from society – I think there is a Gaidai short where the main character is doing this sort of labor, if you’re familiar). Of course, what the average Russian thinks of when s/he hears these two phrases is more important for the survey than legal meanings. Unfortunately, I’m not a native speaker (are you?), and I don’t know the answer to that. Speculatively, I’d guess that that 29% of people in favor of forced labor have a pretty broad spectrum of labor in mind.

Thanks for the comment – I won’t we confused for a native speaker (that’s an understatement) but when I heard “принудительные” *I* certainly thought of exceedingly harsh treatment. I would tentatively agree with you that those 29% of respondents had a relatively broad spectrum of opinion, but what I think is the most important takeaway is that an extremely small percentage of respondents (5%) thought that the members of Pussy Riot didn’t deserve any punishment at all. I frankly think that’s nothing short terrifying, and it’s certainly a very different image than the one presented in a lot of media accounts (which seem to suggest near-universal disgust at the very idea of even having a trial)

Excuse me, Mark Adomanis, but you know nothing about Russia’s criminal justice system. Absolutely vicious and merciless ? Really ? Where did you get that ? If we compare the punishments meted out by USA and Russia, you will notice a big difference: Simple murder USA Death penalty, 25 to 50 years Russia 15-20 years

Assaults USA 3-20 years Russia 2-10 years

Thefts USA 1-20 years Russia 1-10 years

etc.

So which criminal justice system is more merciless. The russian criminal system is a vestige of Soviet Union one when the society actually believed that everyone deserved the 2d chance.

And don´t tell me, please, about gulags which had been abolished after Stalin´s death in 1953 and condemned by the proper successor of Stalin.

And in the case of Pusy Riots´s trial, they debate about the 6-month-in-jail punishment, not 7 years, which equally is very harsh in my opinion.

But the thing is Pusy Riots wouldn´t be prosecuted at all if they wouldn´t have crossed the area destined for priests.

Russia´s orthodox church is very conservative one. Many of its rules are dictated by the Old Testament, they are more close to Judaism than to the Catholicism. And if you check the Old Testamen, the prist area where the first priest Aaron performed his rituals was prohibited for simple folk. The punishment for crossing it would be immediate death. So what Pusy Riots did is considered very grave religious offence.

I am agnostic myself, but I studied Bible, so I know something about the orthodox christianity. It doesn´t mean I am agree with this, but this is what millions of people believe and you must respect it. If you would do what Pusy Riots did in Israel in some temple, I very doubt that you would get out in one piece from that.

PS. I am Russian but working abroad, so I am not brain-washed by Putin.