Petroleum Report: EIA Projects Crude Lower, Natgas Higher in 2014

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its January 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook and includes projections for softer crude and gasoline prices while natural gas spot prices are expected to rise. Click here for the Monitor's report and text highlights...

Crude Oil --

February 2014 WTI crude oil opened this morning at $93.96 , now 50 cents on the day at $92.46. Resistance lies at $98.68 and $103.34. A violation of those levels would make $105.00 bulls next target. Next support is at $92.06 and below that, $91.25. A violation of these levels would suggest downside potential to April 15's low at $85.61.

U.S. crude inventories fell 7.0 million barrels to 360.6 million barrels -- now 0.6 million barrels below year-ago.

February 2014 Brent crude oil futures opened today at $107.45 and chopped lower through the day down 20 cents at mid-afternoon. Next support lies at $106.60. A move below those levels would suggest downside potential below $105.00. A violation of $109.78 would suggest upside potential to $112.95.

The WTI/Brent crude spread widened 78 cents on the week to $13.49 at the open, with Brent on top.

Home Heat --

Residential heating oil 2 cents lower on the week to $4.02/gallon.

Wholesale heating 15 cents lower on the week at $3.07/gallon.

Residential propane firmed 3 cents to $2.83/gallon.

Wholesale propane 1/2 cent lower to $1.68 3/4/gallon.

Fuels --

Gasoline and highway diesel higher, farm diesel softens.

The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline increased less than one cent to remain at $3.33 per gallon as of January 6, 2014, three cents higher than last year at this time. Prices increased in all regions of the nation except the Midwest, where the price declined four cents to $3.22 per gallon. The largest increase came on the East Coast, where the price was up three cents to $3.44 per gallon. Both the Rocky Mountain and West Coast prices gained two cents, to $3.12 per gallon and $3.55 per gallon, respectively, and the Gulf Coast price was $3.12 per gallon, a penny higher than last week, according to EIA.

The national average diesel fuel price increased one cent to $3.91 per gallon, less than a penny lower than last year at this time. Prices increased in all regions of the nation, with the East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Rocky Mountain prices all gaining one cent, to $3.95 per gallon, $3.80 per gallon, and $3.90 per gallon, respectively. The West Coast average rose nearly a cent, but remained at $4.03 per gallon, while the Midwest price increased only fractionally, and remained at $3.89 per gallon, according to EIA.

Farm Diesel softened 1/2 cent on the week, currently at $3.33. This week's lowest farm diesel was reported in the state of Indiana at $2.83/gallon with the high mark in South Dakota at $3.55.

Your Inputs Monitor issued an alert today for growers in Indiana to top off spring coverage on farm diesel to 50% covered. Other areas are advised to check local pricing, however, if your appetite for risk will allow it, we recommended holding for another week to see if the chart puts in a hook, signaling a regionwide buying opportunity. Click here for the alert...

Propane --

U.S. propane stocks fell by 3.5 million barrels to end at 42.4 million barrels last week, 23.1 million barrels (35.3%) lower than a year ago. Gulf Coast regional inventories dropped by 2.1 million barrels and Midwest inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels. Rocky Mountain/West Coast and East Coast inventories both dropped by less than 0.1 million barrels. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 8.5% of total propane inventories, according to EIA.

LP moved a penny higher in this week's Inputs Monitor Index to $2.01/gallon. The lowest priced LP in our index is in Wisconsin at $1.66 while the high mark is at $3.04 in Indiana.

Distillate --

The national distillate supply gained 5.8 million barrels to 125.0 -- now 5.8 million barrels behind year-ago.