The Korean Peninsula is one of the few areas in the world that have the remnants of the global confrontation between capitalists and communists from the last century. That is, this divided peninsula has yet to overcome the old Cold War. Nevertheless, the Koreas are at risk of being involved in a new one ― between the United States and China, this time around.Already, phrases rampant on media outlets, here and abroad, are becoming reminiscent of the East-West ideological rivalry that ended about three decades ago. Among them are "technological Cold War," "digital Iron Curtain," and "two global economic chains."Business conflicts and trade war nearly invariably lead to political strife and even military confrontation. The U.S. has begun to call Taiwan a country, directly challenging the "one China policy," in which Beijing regards Taipei as just a renegade province. In response, China's state propaganda machine is revisiting its "prideful victory" over America during the Korean War (1950-53). East Asia ― Taiwan, the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula ― is re-emerging as a theater not just for a new Cold War but unfortunately, and not altogether improbably, for another hot war.It's been quite some time that gurus have begun to mention the "Thucydides' Trap" ― when a rising power threatens to displace an existing power, war usually erupts ― first identified by the ancient Greek historian. "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable," Thucydides said. Given that U.S. political leaders, Republicans or Democrats, support President Donald Trump's hostile policy against China, the disastrous trap may be a self-fulfilling prophecy.Chinese President Xi Jinping is promoting the One-Belt, One-Road infrastructure project to realize his "China Dream." As a counterbalance, Trump is pushing for an "India-Pacific" policy as part of his campaign slogan of "Make America Great Again." In the near term, China will be no match for the U.S. in military and cultural ― if not economic ― power, in this and other parts of the world. As the rivalry drags on, however, time might be on China's side.Yun Byung-se, former foreign minister under ousted President Park Geun-hye, once famously said, "South Korea couldn't be happier by being courted by G2." It didn't take long before Koreans knew how naive and/or mistaken, Yun was.Soon after the remark, the Park administration had to allow the U.S. to deploy its Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system on South Korean soil.Economic and other retaliation from China followed and continues even now. Recently, a Chinese Foreign Ministry official told visiting South Korean journalists that Seoul needs to "judge rightly." Depending on the judgment by the South Korean government and businesses, "difficulties might arise in the Seoul-Beijing relationship," the official reportedly said. In Seoul, U.S. Ambassador Harry Harris ― could there be a more fitting symbol of the U.S.-Japan alliance to pressurize Korea than this mustachioed Japanese-American ― urged local IT firms to join the U.S.-led boycott of Huawei, the Chinese tech giant. If Seoul follows Washington, Beijing's retaliation will be beyond imagination. South Korean tech firms, including Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, rely heavily on Chinese importers to buy their shipments of memory chips and other parts and components. If they are put on Beijing's list of "unreliable" companies and individuals, the damage will be all but irrecoverable. The South Korean government and businesses cannot ignore the U.S. demand, not least because of the role America plays in national security for the South and its efforts to denuclearize North Korea. A decade ago, Seoul could depend on Beijing for the economy and on Washington for security. The convenient and straightforward pattern no longer works amid the escalating rivalry between the G2. What should Seoul do? One thing seems inevitable ― there is no easy way out.Most experts call for remaining neutral and ambiguous without taking sides. That may be far easier said than done. Even maintaining neutrality is difficult because each of the G2 views it as favorable to the other. Still, standing right in the middle of the two countries is the best way for now. South Korea is, of course, not alone caught in between G2. Other export-dependent countries, such as Singapore and the EU, are in a similar dilemma. For them, however, the pressure is mainly an economic one, while South Korea has to think of national security, too, because of North Korea and its nuclear threat. Another problem is the efforts to denuclearize the North might be put on the backburner by the G2, further delaying its solution.Currently, there is no magic bullet to avoid the nutcracker status but to cope with the changing situations with diplomatic dexterity and flexibility. The problem is that there are strong doubts about the Moon Jae-in administration's diplomatic ability and willingness. The government's quandary is understandable, but too many people here think the South Korean foreign ministry is "too quiet" amid the global and regional diplomatic whirlwind. If that means prudence and composure, it may be okay. If the seeming lack of activity reflects unfounded optimism or a nonplussed state, nothing can be more serious. We hope the former case will be right.The Moon administration is right to activate a department exclusively responsible for the U.S.-China hegemonic battle, within the foreign ministry. However, that may not be enough. The liberal president needs to reshuffle the foreign ministry by launching a diplomatic "dream team" composed of career diplomats transcending political and ideological differences to include rational conservatives. Conservative opposition parties also need to cooperate with the government in matters of national survival and prosperity.The ongoing U.S.-China feud will not likely end soon but last for years or decades, forcing countries like South Korea to set up a long-term strategy and various tactics according to all kinds of scenarios imaginable. The time is pressed, but the next G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, will be the start of such tests for Moon and his diplomatic team.

Choi Sung-jin is a Korea Times columnist. Contact him at choisj1955@naver.com.