Asia-Pacific - Risk Forecast Q1/2018

In Asia, several conflicts of a regional scope are expected to define the security agenda during the first quarter of 2018.

Although rapprochement between North and South Korea has paved the way for calm Winter Olympics, Pyongyang’s weapon programme will likely continue to be a source of strong tensions after the end of the Paralympics, particularly with Japan and the United States. The absence of a comprehensive agreement concerning the future status of the Rohingya will have further fatal consequences on both sides of the border between Myanmar and Bangladesh. Despite recent military action against jihadist groups on the Philippines, the potential for armed clashes and terrorist attacks remains high during the coming months, particularly on the Mindanao island group.

In particular the conflict on the Korean Peninsula remains key to regional security considerations due to the significant risk of spontaneous escalations.