Picking Warren Buffett's Brain: Notes from a Novice

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The richest man in the world — $62 billion and counting. (Photo: CBS/AP)

“Excuse me. Where is the most difficult to reach microphone?”

I was out of breath from running up the steps but had managed to find one of the microphone stands, manned by two headset-wearing volunteers.

More than 10,000 people had waited on the sidewalks overnight to be first in the doors of the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting, and I had made a choice: I would go for the mics instead of the front row.

Given a choice of shaking Warren Buffett’s hand for a five-second photo op or asking him a question, I opted for the latter, and in ten seconds, I’d be sprinting to the corner of the top floor. After all, lunch with Buffett once auctioned off for $620,100, and I’d planned it all out.

These are my notes on what happened and what I learned…

“Can you please radio ahead to put my name on their list until I get there to confirm?” I pleaded, explaining that this was the main reason I had traveled from SF all the way to Omaha, Nebraska.

They smiled: “Sure thing.”

There were 13 mics total and time for approximately six questions from each, for a total of 78 people out of the 31,000 who now packed the Qwest Convention Center like a rock concert. I ended up, only 10 minutes after the doors had opened, number 5 at mic #6. When the spotlight swung over to blind me a few minutes before the lunch break, I was ready to consult the Oracle.

“Good afternoon, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger…” my voice boomed out through the sound system with a half-second delay, making it almost impossible to remember my lines, memorized word-for-word. I continued:

“If you were 30 years old and had no dependents but a full-time job that precluded full-time investing, how would you invest your first million dollars, assuming that you can cover 18 months of expenses with other savings? Thank you in advance for being as specific as possible with asset classes and allocation percentage.”

Buffett let out a small laugh and began. “I’d put it all in a low-cost index fund that tracks the S&P 500 and get back to work…”

[Postscript: Be sure to see some of the great reader answers to this question in the comments after this post.]

An MBA in a Weekend

As several veterans put it to me before the pilgrimage, “it’s like an MBA in a weekend.” I thought this was hyperbole and hero worship, but I would now take it further: I think it’s one weekend that delivers more than most MBAs. Real-world strategies culled from experience? Check. Networking? Big-time check. The only thing the mecca of Buffett seemed to lack was the $100K+ price tag.

Here are my non-linear notes from my exchange with Buffett (B) and Munger (M), as well as the rest of my first Berkshire Hathaway (BH) experience, including conversations in the hallways with some incredible portfolio company managers. Treat each line as a separate observation except for the answers following bolded questions.

Their continued answer to my question:

“…Put it all in a low-cost index fund like a Vanguard 500.” M: “Professionals take croupier profits out of the system. No one will give you this advice [index funds] because no one gets paid for it.” M: “The whole secret of successful investing [full-timers] is non-diversification. If you know nothing –> diversity.” B: “There are situations, for the full-time investor, where it’d be a mistake not to invest 50% of your net worth in one business.” If more aggressive: small stocks and specialized bonds, but no currencies.

Best books to read for investing and life?
—
(B) Chapters 8 and 20 in The Intelligent Investor. (M) Anything by Ben Franklin.

Use the market to serve you, not to instruct you.

What’s being taught in current MBA programs that shouldn’t be?
—
Option pricing, etc. There are only three courses you need: how to value a business, how to think about market fluctuations, and how to communicate well. There is a great desire of the priesthood [in this case, academics] to teach what they know vs. what you need. If you know the bible in four languages, your ego won’t allow you to teach the true essentials, which might be “follow the 10 commandments.”

From CFO of portfolio company on how to select a money manager. Ask: What is your process? How do you make decisions? Given what you’re holding now vs. 3 years ago, can you share an example along those lines? Are you registered with the SEC?

From same CFO: having a short-term focus (2-4 months) or long-term (7 years or so) is good, but intermediate-term is bad (1-2 years). Everyone is looking at information for 1-2 years due to capital gains treatment. Given that I’d be comfortable with a 10% loss in a given year but not 20%, a 55/45 stocks/bonds split with 7-year objectives would be one potential allocation.

Conventional dogma among economists: the stock market is 6 months ahead of the respective economy.

B: “Envy is the worst of the 7 sins. You feel worse and they feel no worse. Gluttony, at least, has some upside.” [said as he opens another box of See’s chocolates]

The letter and goodies waiting in my hotel room upon arriving in Omaha.

B and M have never discussed timing the market, and if they could, they would focus exclusively on S&P 500 futures.

Look for attractively priced businesses, not stocks. Could you remain confident in your choice, in their durable competitive advantage, even if the market were to close for a few years? Imagine that you have a card with room for 20 hole punches, and you can only invest in 20 companies your entire life.

Worry about getting ahead, not galloping ahead.

Purchasing businesses that earn revenue in British Pound Sterling, Euros, or Francs is OK, as those currencies are unlikely to decline vs. $ USD. $ USD will continue to weaken vs. others.

B and M’s job is to retain — not recruit — good managers once they choose an attractive business to purchase. Good management is part of the evaluation of intrinsic value. Chief characteristics: passion, excellent communication skills, and the tendency to always do more than fair share.

If you want to buy or sell a stock, buy or sell it instead of speculating on futures. If you make a call for a cheaper price, the movement will come earlier 4 out of 5 times.

M on charities/nonprofits: if you donate to a group with strong political leanings, you tend to make lots of dumb charitable gifts.

B: Most things I want do not come from the expenditure of money. I have what I need. We do virtually nothing we don’t want to do. Associating with wonderful people is about as good as it gets. Never trade reputation for money.

Berkshire Hathaway (BH) is now targeting companies with a 50B+ market capitalization (market cap) — there are fewer options, the companies are less profitable, and more is required to move the % needle [% growth in BH stock] for shareholders.

M on CEO compensation: If you’re in a job you’d pay to have and are an exemplar for the rest of the organization, there is a lot to be said for paying yourself little. B: “If you rise high enough in American business, you have a moral obligation to take less pay.

“Pair trading” — long and short two stocks in the same industry to hedge losses (BP + Chevron, etc.). Useful in 60’s; less useful now.

“If you were 30 years old and had no dependents but a full-time job that precluded full-time investing, how would you invest your first million dollars, assuming that you can cover 18 months of expenses with other savings? Thank you in advance for being as specific as possible with asset classes and allocation percentage.”

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Comment Rules: Remember what Fonzie was like? Cool. That’s how we’re gonna be — cool. Critical is fine, but if you’re rude, we’ll delete your stuff. Please do not put your URL in the comment text and please use your PERSONAL name or initials and not your business name, as the latter comes off like spam. Have fun and thanks for adding to the conversation! (Thanks to Brian Oberkirch for the inspiration)

How long have you been investing Tim? I didn’t know you were remotely interested in doing so. Do you see yourself ever starting up again or do you have enough momentum (from BodyQuick and book sales) and familiarity with investment to forgo the process? Thank you in advance for being as specific as possible:)

Based on your assumptions and including an average life expectancy of 85 years, you’re talking about a 55 year investment horizon.

If you can stomach the ups and downs, I would go with an all equity portfolio, but instead of going simply with the S&P 500, I would go with a globally diversified basket of low cost, tax efficient index and/or asset class funds.

I would include the entire US stock market (all capitalizations), the entire International developed market (all capitalizations), and the entire International emerging market (again, all capitalizations). I would also add some income producing real estate in the form of a well diversified, low cost REIT index fund.

This can be accomplished with Vanguard funds, ETFs or other flavors of investment.

You can further increase your expected returns over time by tilting your exposures more heavily to small cap and value companies.

Check out http://www.dfaus.com for further data on this approach. They advocate taking the risks that you’re compensated for, and I incorporate this approach in my work with clients.

Once your target allocation among the chosen funds had been determined, I would rebalance back to your target allocation when any single asset class deviated 20% from it’s target. There is meaningful data supporting this rebalancing trigger. You could also rebalance with additional savings which is a much more tax efficient approach and will reduce your capital gains realization. Rebalancing forces you to buy more of the relatively less expensive asset class in a classic “buy low” discipline.

That’s about it. Buy when you have money and only sell when you need the money, but not before.

Great notes. Irrelevant as it may be, couldn’t help noticing even the richest man in the world uses Times New Roman in corporate letters. Maybe he got so rich not from investing, but by never hiring designers and other “non-essential” services? 😉

I would invest it all in a startup biodiesel company that had a brilliant idea to turn the sludge from wastewater treatment plants into renewable fuel. A million is about enough to build a plant and secure the contracts, then sell out to a larger company for a huge profit.

Btw, as much kudos is obviously due to Warren, it’s very hard for me to value advice from a person who doesn’t follow it themselves. Aside from the simple minded “invest in index funds and get back to work” (for 4 hours per week?), he has many great messages if you read deeper into his philosophy. I’ve read several Buffett interviews that were priceless.

On productive alternative side of things, what do you guys think about investing directly into hard assets and private financial instruments where there aren’t all kinds of hands in the cookie jar to dilute your returns?

The commenter Russ Thornton has it mostly right. The missing component is asset allocation because its specific to your risk tolerance. Overall, equity and equity like instruments are what you want. David Swenson has a pretty good book on this.

One further point though. A basic tenet of professional investing is to manage your liabilities by managing your assets. i.e. if you are a professional money manager it makes little sense to invest only in the S&P due to the very high correlation of performance/wages. Ditto for company share options. Taking it further one should analyse one’s costs in terms of exposure to various asset classes and then find a way to hedge if possible. i.e. if you commute a lot and drive a hummer then oil futures may not be a bad idea to remove the risk of price increases. This idea can be applied usefully in some instances depending on your personal circumstances.

As a new multi-millionaire with an engineer mind, after lengthy research I chose ifa.com for their low-fee access to DFA funds, which are essentially index funds with some academic magic at the edges to maximize returns. Instead of bullshit “how much risk can you handle?” quesitons, they boil it down to the number of years your liquidity horizon is. Check out their site, check out their charts – if you chose them, you’ll sleep well at night.

Lazy Portfolios. Google that, else the concept is similar to that described in David Swensen’s “Unconventional Success.” The engine is the S&P (and foreign equiv.), but the bonds and rebalancing give you an edge over pure equities.

Answer: Man… I guess that would TOTALLY depend on what you wanted your next 55 years to look like… Wouldn’t it?

Seems like some people could move to the Philippines and live off of some low risk interest somewhere. Others would just be getting started on their quest for 1 billion dollars and their next move would look totally different.

I would probably be looking for a business to buy or… I guess do what WB said. Throw it in my S&P500 index fund and get back to work…

Thanks for passing along the notes for us that couldn’t be at the meeting. I live in Omaha, so I don’t have a lot of excuse but I didn’t have tickets. I will next year my family just bought some brk.b shares.

To your ?: Buffett gave you an initial answer about the Vanguard 500, but if you look at his later response, it is clear that what he really means is put it in businesses that earn in the top valued currencies right now. I think his comment about the Vanguard is until you can figure out which business to buy. And by get back to work I think he means looking for which business to buy. Thats all he ever does.

Loving my life with the use of a VA. Amazing things happen when you don’t have any excuse not to start something you have been wanting to. When there is no limitation to the amount of time you have, based on the availability of VA’s and when there is no limit to the amount of expertise you can get for the ideas that need it it is like twin turbochargers have been added to the engine of your life. I will soon be asking you to comment on my book, what is the best way to do this?

I first learned about your book while writing my business plan along the shores of Lake Atilan in Guatemala. Upon returning home, I tried many of the techniques from my extensively highlighted book. Most of them failed….so far. “Test and test, again” right? However, i still reference it constantly and so far have found the beginnings of success in wholesaling…

Last summer I worked in Thailand (learned a few Muai Thai boxing techniques) but I am not quite ready for the aboard experience while trying to get this business flowing so….

This summer I am putting my ninja motorcycle in storage and traveling around the US as a tour guide for international travelers. It’ll be a “test in lifestyle design” to see if I can fulfill P.O.s from my blackberry. Wish me luck!

If you ever make it to AZ in the wintertime, feel free to drop me a line and I will take you to the track, my treat.

I find it interesting that WB is continually talking about the negative effect that the fees incurred by investing thru an advisor or hedge fund since from what I have read about Buffett’s beginnings in the investment advice/management world started with Buffett charging a 2% asset based fee and a percentage of the gains annually.. (Can anyone “hedge fund”??)

Of course, maybe he learned his lesson BUT, it is reported that he collected “hedge fund” type fees in his earlier years..

WRT how I would invest, I think that unless you’re willing to get knee deep in investing and doing lots of reading, you have to go with an index fund. Many mutual funds judge their performance and manager alpha vs. indices and a majority of the actively managed funds lag indices. If the majority of professional managers with their resources cannot beat their benchmark, how could you do it consistently and hold down a full time job? (even if it were only 4 hrs a week?) Index funds is the answer and they’re cheap to boot. (The Fidelity Spartan 500 index fund has an expense ratio of only 0.10%)

Well, this definitely settles it. I have to get me some BRK-B and make the pilgrimage.

As far as the investing advice, you’re a young guy and don’t strike me as risk adverse. I would definitely look at heavily investing in foreign stock index funds. I personally hold about 10% in foreign emerging markets small caps and I’m about your age.

The 80/20 principle applies to investing as well. 20% of investors/traders take 80% of the profits. The Index fund advice is great for the masses, but a little more effort yields better results. Here’s where my money is:

1. Mutual funds with an excellent track record and reasonable fees. Many financial websites can sort funds by 5 and 10 year performance. Make sure you look at a fund on a chart to get a feel for its volatility.

2. An active investor can smoke the averages by using a discount broker and a stock screen, but most people can’t do it. Why? They can’t stick to the plan.

Asset allocation is a very personal thing. If you get more aggressive than your risk tolerance, you will bail, probably near the bottom of the market.

The best thing anyone can read on personal finance and investing is a little book written in pieces from the 1920’s to 1940’s titled “The Richest Man In Babylon” by George S. Clason. It’s a great set of stories set in ancient Babylon – which makes it a fun read – teaching savings, how to get out of debt, and how to invest. The investment strategy, when you really look at it, is very similar to Buffett’s strategy of buying into a good business and holding it. The book is fun, an easy read, and you can pick one up at any bookstore for $7. I recommend it to everyone I meet who talks to me about finances.

After reading the book “The Collapse of the Dollar”, I have put over 50% of my portfolio into physical gold and silver buillion. As our currency continues to lose value, oil and metals will continue to soar.

The response to your question confirms my belief on investing. Unless you can devote a significant amount of time you should just go with index funds. Your time and energy are more profitable earning a larger income. This is especially true if you use it to start a successful business.

I would stay away from it for the simple reasons that these hard assets and private placements can be hard to get rid of. Valuations can be tough and often, only qualified buyers are eligible to purchase. The upside to having many hands in the cookie jar is that valuation is more standardized and buyers and sellers are easy to come by.

What about Phil Town’s Rule #1? I’m about halfway through it. Is anyone using this method, based on Buffett’s own “rule” and other strategies from his professor? Tim, I think you said you read it – is anyone using this strategy with success?

Speaking as an actual 2 year MBA (not the weekend kind) who studied mostly the stuff Buffet was saying they should focus on (communications, valuation and market movement), here’s my idea for your first million that you don’t want to use to start a new business with.

Go 60/40 with the 60 being a low cost EAFE type fund and the 40 being S&P 500 tracking index. You diversify away everything you don’t know and you get some edge on a falling dollar with the EAFE. If you were inclined, you could add a Wilshire Completion Index type fund to the mix, but I don’t see the point of screwing around with smaller companies in smaller proportions. More risk, more return. But your first million (or fraction thereof), you put into a nice stable, growth option. When you have a second million (or fraction thereof), then you have some money to risk, with a higher risk tolerance.

Of course, this all comes down to your individual risk tolerance. If you have no tolerance for risk, 100% to government bonds. If you have nothing but risk tolerance, you plunk your mil as a venture capitalist. Somewhere in between, lies most people.

I became extremely confident in my personal investing strategy after reading “The Intelligent Asset Allocator” by William Bernstein. The title of the book is a mild retort to “The Intelligent Investor,” which informed Buffett’s career. (although Buffett’s answer to you indicates to me that he would probably agree with most of what Bernstein says)

The highlights:
-Pick an asset allocation and stick to it. There are some rules of thumb about asset allocation, but he most important thing is to stick to the allocation plan you pick at the outset.

– Rebalance periodically – every two years or so you should buy and sell so that your portfolio matches your target allocation. If you don’t change your asset allocation, you will get a boost in returns from rebalancing. This is why sticking to your chosen asset allocation for the long haul is so important.

Short answer:
25% in a US market-wide (not just S&P500) index fund.
25% in actively managed international funds (equal parts EU/Russia, East Asia, Latin America).
25% in actively managed international bond fund.
25% in US money market/savings.
When picking funds, pick the ones with the best 1, 3, and 5-year returns AFTER annual expenses, with the same manager through the last 3-5 years.

Details:
For the most consistent returns you need to diversify intelligently; buying a random collection of 500 stocks of roughly the same size that mostly track the US economy is easy but too risky for the simple reason that few investors like to see their portfolio tank for 2-3 years in a row, and hence will end up selling out at the bottom. And by the way, the S&P500 is equivalent to an actively managed fund; companies are selected and dropped based on a set of financial criteria.
So basically, for the most stable returns, invest in a set of assets that do not go up or down at the same time. That means you need international as well as US exposure, and debt (bonds/money mkt) as well as stocks.

Love your blog, but what a wasted opportunity! The answer to your question is in every single Warren Buffet book ever published! That’s why he chuckled.

You should have asked us what question to ask him.

Yes, use low-cost index funds if you don’t have time to do research… you can’t take time out of your hectic 4-hour work week schedule to find time to invest? 😉

Other advice from his books:

1) EVERYBODY can be an investor. Pick an industry, learn it VERY well, and only invest in what you know well. Buffet invests in boots, bricks, insurance, and food.

2) Get to know the management of a company before investing anything in it.

3) You can have a pretty diversified portfolio, even if you only own 10 stocks.

If I were you, I’d put the majority of that cash into something like a Vanguard index. Then pick some industry to learn well, network with the management of several companies, and invest in the ones that sound the most competent.

Keep an eye on those with a corporate culture of training and retaining talent: recruiting is a sign of a poorly run company.

Avoid like the plague any company that did a “cost cutting initiative.” As Buffet says, no good businessman should suddenly decide to cut costs, any more than he should suddenly decide to start breathing!

“If you were 30 years old and had no dependents but a full-time job that precluded full-time investing, how would you invest your first million dollars, assuming that you can cover 18 months of expenses with other savings? Thank you in advance for being as specific as possible with asset classes and allocation percentage.”

HERE’S WHAT I WOULD DO:

1. I would take 90% of my investable assets and lock them up in safe, low-risk investments with the objective of earning 8%-10% per year. (This could be easily Outsourced to the right people)

2. Take the remaining 10% and Outsource to a company that uses computer Automation to Swing Trade the S&P eMini Futures. Average return is about 6.9% a Month…

And there you have it…the secret to the man’s success. He invests in what he know, and he invests through an easily repeatable vehicle without fail. While I’d like to be a stock-picking mogul, I simply don’t have the time for the required research. Buffett’s answer if perfect for people like me because I can invest it and forget – and then get on with life. Now, if I just had a million to invest!

Unreal story! You gave me a $10,000+ life experience through this posting. Thanks so much for sharing this with us!

For someone so risk seeking in your personal life, I’m surprised at your risk tolerance rate of 10%. From reading your blog, it seems like you live your life experiences with a 50% risk tolerance rate.

Depends on why you invested in the business in the first place. If you were speculating then probably only 5% is enough to make you jump ship but if you bought because you saw long-term growth then have faith in why you originally bought in.

Apple is a good example. Beginning of the year they topped $200/share. A month or 2 later and it bottomed at $119/share. Today…its back up to $185/share and I personally believe they’ll be mid $200 a year from now.

In the same way Tim has helped us all break free of the adage “you’ll be broke unless you work a good job 40 hours per week for 40 years”… I work to help people break free of the adage you just quoted.

To clarify, when I say private investments, I’m talking more about financial instruments and assets that have predictable income so that you know you are making x% per year and there’s no need to try to buy and sell at a right price. These can often be 12% – 25% annualized… I’m not talking about speculative, risky private placements. No need for valuations or qualified buyers. Just a simple asset a la the Kiyosaki definition: something that regularly brings income. I’ve helped hundreds of people do this over the past 6 years.

@Aaron
Great read! I interviewed the author of that book, John Rubino, on my internet radio show last month. I respect him a lot because he accurately predicted the outcome of the housing bubble to a “T” back in 2003. He knows his stuff, and you can’t build wealth investing in any market if you don’t understand what’s happening to the money being used (i.e. inflation / currency debasement).

Firstly, I would learn to read and understand financial statements. This won’t take a lot of time. Then…

20% precious metals (gold/silver/platinum)

40% Cash flow real estate with at least 15%+ annual ROI – preferably apartment buildings in central areas of a a major city. Hard times bring people out of their large houses in the suburbs and into apartments/condos closer to their work ( $4 gas :-O )… Find one with 15%+ annualized ROI, and keep it forever.

10% Misc debt instruments – such as private mortgage notes at a low LTV (low risk), these are abundant right now.

20% HIGH RISK investments – such as the pre-IPOs and/or private placements you now have access to since you’re a quasi-celebrity and an “accredited investor” by nature of your net worth. There’s no shortage of high risk investments, be creative. Don’t put more than 5% to 10% of your portfolio in any single high risk investment.

So the gold is a good hedge against hyperinflation, silver has good upside because its used in most electronic equipment and the Indian and Chinese people who are getting jobs will be buying PCs/ipods/etc, cash flow real estate should speak for itself (no speculation or perfect timing required), equipment debt instruments is a good way to lock in a return from the growth of alternative energy, the state of the mortgage market leaves plenty of opportunity to write or buy private mortgage notes, and high risk investments are fun, exciting, and sometimes pay off massively.

The key difference with my plan is that it is not based on “beating the market”, timing anything perfectly, or surrendering my money to other people for them to invest it outside of my understanding. My plan is based on understanding financial statements and investing for income… basically a guaranteed return.

Each year the World Wealth Report is published showing that the world’s wealthiest people hold about around 50% of their wealth in real estate and/or alternative assets. This figure is even understated because it is based on a survey of Merrill Lynch clients.

Any investment plan that puts more than 50% into public securities markets is one that runs contrary to what real wealthy people actually do.

Jeff

p.s. If this 30 year old guy (from your question) traveled internationally as much as you do, he’d literally open a world of possibilities. Once he understands financial statements, debt instruments, and cash flow real estate, he’d find opportunities even more abundant outside of the U.S.

How would I invest 1 million, given that I have 18 months living expenses already taken care of?

I’d immediately hire a (cheap but competent) market research company to test out 3-5 ideas I have for small businesses. Whichever one they came back and said would be more likely to be successful I’d spend the remaining hundreds of thousands building.

Any of the ideas I had them test would, of course, be easily autopiloted. No reason to make myself work more.

Investing, to me, seems like giving away your money, crossing your fingers, and hoping the market obeys your better interests. I’d rather have that money building something tangible that I can direct and control. If it fails, it fails for a reason, rather than some random fluctuation.

As I mentioned in an earlier comment, the book “The Richest Man in Babylon” takes a similar approach to investing as Buffett. Earlier I mentioned the book, but since it appears you’re looking for a specific answer, I’ll give you mine which will be based substantially on the book I mentioned. What industries do you understand? What industries do you have an interest in that you could research and comprehend? Focus on one or two industries and find companies being run by someone with successful experience in that industry; invest in those few companies as directly as you can. Don’t take your money out. Personally, I would also put some money – perhaps 15-20% – into metals, particularly silver at the moment, but also buy gold on a “dip”. Industries I’d buy into? Renewable energy like solar and wind. Vertical axis windmills are looking promising to me. Larger real estate development companies with experience in urban development/re-development are probably a good long-term bet with higher gas prices, and they might be a bargain right now. Whatever you do, buy for the long term.

1. You are an accredited investor.
2. Your businesses will continue to run themselves and create cash flow income for you.
3. This $1 million is true risk capital.

That being said, I am a investment advisor. I create portfolios for clients in both traditional asset classes (stocks, bonds, cash, and real estate) and non-traditional asset classes (raw materials, energy, metals, and currencies). This provides a mix of investments that are uncorrelated to one another.

Without getting into specific investment vehicles, an asset allocation will look something like this:

The goal is to produce an absolute return. For my clients, I am not interested in having the following conversation, “The market was down 40% this year, Mr. Jones, but we only lost 18%. We did a great job!” No. A loss is a loss. By setting up a portfolio for absolute return, not relative returns, your chances of forwarding the ball every year is much greater.

Remember, a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to get back to even. Don’t lose.

@ Allison:
“If you ever make it to AZ in the wintertime, feel free to drop me a line and I will take you to the track, my treat.”

If Tim were TRULY adventurous he’d come out here in June and July….only tourists come here in winter. 🙂

@ Everyone asking “what courses can I take”….for communications, it is my opinion that most folks do OK in verbal communications, but fail miserably in written communications. To that end, I suggest:

“On Writing Well” by William K. Zissner
“The Elements of Style” by Strunk and White

If you can digest and, more importantly, apply these books, your written communication skills will improve dramatically. Both are available at Amazon.com or your typical chain bookstore, but you can likely find them in second-hand bookstores at a fraction of the price, or borrow them from your local library.

@Patrick – You’re one of the scarce few investment advisors I’ve seen that readily admits that mathematically hitting a target return requires ridiculously large gains to get back on track from losses. Kudos to you 😀

@Russ and others — for the best, 4HWW-esque way to achieve mean variance optimized portfolios with lowest investment costs and purest index funds (read: DFA > Vanguard) check out AssetBuilder.com. You could beat 80-90% of professional money managers in 15 minutes a year via one of their portfolios.

I may not be Buffet, but with a $million, invest in commercial Real Estate. More money is made and held in RE than all other investment classes combined. Fantastic tax benefits, monthly cashflow to live on and continued appreciation(don’t listen to the news, many RE assett classes are still appreciating). Combine that with 1031 exchanges and you can leapfrog your wealth every few years.

Apartment buildings and self storage units in growing areas would be my choice. Areas like South East Texas, Louisville KY, Alabama, Arkansas. Many of these areas have stable/growing populations and Real Estate prices haven’t inflated beyond their value as in California and much of the Coastal areas. It is not uncommon to get a 14% Cash on Cash return within the 1st year. On top of that, you can use a value-add strategy to force appreciation (improving the building, raising rents, back charging utilities etc..) this makes your CAP rates and value higher with the stroke of a pen.

@Jeff,
You hit it on the head about apartment building in city centers. People ask me if my RE business is hurting because of the housing slump. I just laugh and tell them that all my rents went up and my cashflow has never been better!

Seriously Tim, when are you going to blog something about commercial RE? People have been living the 4-hour work week on RE cashflows since the beginning of time, wouldn’t you agree?

Hey Tim, didn’t see you there … but, Warren was kind enough to invite ‘international visitors’ (which I qualified for even though I live in the US … nice, huh?) to get a t-shirt signed. He was exhausted by the time I got to him, though.

Heard your question but already knew that he would sidestep MOST of your question. His Index Fund advice is fine for the novice, but if you are going to become rich – well, not you & I exactly, others – then you need to cast your investing net wider:

individual stocks; RE; businesses; etc. and you are going to need to apply some leverage (money, time, and knowledge/talent) …

Gather enormous amounts of data, it is easy enough to do with any OTS software. Then create a simple algorithm (“filter” is a less intimidating word) to extract gains. You will not predict the stock market, but can achieve positive gains 60% of the time (i am around 65%). Might not sound impressive, but trading often will make it compound.

The beautiful part? Once the “filter” is set up, all you need to do is put in orders every night. I am a mechanical engineer with a demanding job at a product design consultancy, and I am up 67.7% since Jan 22… and its all automated.

@Nate, I blogged about forced appreciation in commercial RE on April 28th – FYI.

I think the difference between stories of real estate riches and stories of winning stock market strategies is that the RE stories are abundant. Meet 100 real-world millionaires and most of them made it in RE or business, and all of them keep growing a substantial portion of it in RE.

Stock market strategy stories tend to be theoretical examples that haven’t played out yet, stories of savings (rather than investment returns), stories of short term winnings (almost like “I can beat the craps table”), or stories of massive success like Warren Buffett that are difficult to replicate.

Many people discard RE success stories because they group RE investors with the people who flipped houses during the housing bubble. Those weren’t RE investors, they were same people who jumped into the DOT COM crash of 2000. As the dust has settled, many of the world’s wealthiest people are avid RE investors… as it always has been and always will be.

It seems like a BS question. If you have a million by the time you are 30, you are very close to being set for life. Work until you make it 2 million, then even at a measly 6% gain, you can live comfortable at $120k /year for life, not touching the principal. Or, you could continue to work and save and sweeten the deal even more (depending on how much it takes to make you comfortable).

It seems like a waste of time question that Warren saw right through and gave you a waste of time (Albeit very insightful and very correct) answer.

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Hi Josh,

I can see where you’re coming from, but please realize that the question never focused on the income derived from the investment.

No matter how much money I or anyone else has, I think economic resources should be put in areas of high yield rather than low yield for positive contribution (choosing sectors, economies, markets with a moral compass).

Putting cash in the bank might be safe, and preserving capital is often the first priority, but all things equal, I think putting capital to work in positive ways — while hedging risk — is almost a moral obligation.

You’ve asked a question that will give you an infinite variety of answers, even from the Oracle of Omaha.

Find an investment style that fits your personality, then backtest that strategy over long & varied starting/ending periods to see if you can stomach the maximum drop (“drawdown”). And stick with it…forever. No one can predict the market, you never know if you’re about to buy before a big dip.

It’s true that growth stocks outperform a helluvalot of other asset classes over the long haul.

But, someone who put all their money in the S&P500 index on 1/3/2000 lost about -50% (by October 2002) and is still losing money eight years later! Most might throw in the towel at that low point, when they should have been adding. The pain of losing is alot stronger than the hope of winning.

It’s subjective, but maybe the best time to start that type of strategy is when the markets are overwhelmed with bad news, fear & loathing? Or add a little bit at a time? (Dollar cost averaging).

A good place to start could be reading the chapter on Mutual Funds in O’Neil’s “How To Make Money In Stocks”. Good luck!

You should invest it in real estate. The S&P is not a bad option, it will give you about 11% per year as long as you can hold it five years or more (there is some volatility). But investing a million dollars in real estate can give you a REALIZED monthly income of $10,000 in less than a year. And you don’t have to do it yourself, you can invest passively through partnerships with lead investors. Thats $10,000 actual cash you can spend while still building equity, appreciation, great tax benefits, etc in the property. Stock market can’t touch that.

Finally someone said it! This is exactly what I would do. I would then take the $10,000 per month cashflow and put it into covered calls at anywhere between 2-4% per month upfront cash flow again. You could then use that cash to buy more properties.

Nothing to do with Warren Buffet or investing, just wanted to say that I like your new photos. The one where you’re standing on your head, arms out to your sides, makes me smile. (Needed a smile today, got it, thanks!)

Most of the stock investments that are being proposed in this thread are “invest in index funds” “the majority of mutual funds do not beat the market!” Well, while that may be true, with $1 million, an investor can afford private managers to manage the money through separately managed or unified managed accounts, where there are many managers that beat the market on a consistent basis on a net basis. Any advisor who simply puts someone in index funds is just plain lazy.

The 4-Hour Work Week is about outsourcing work to those who can do the work competently. Does an advocate of the 4-Hour Work Week want to sit in front of the computer pouring over stocks and mutual funds? No. Rather pay a competent advisor/manager. Investments can be monitored on a regular basis via email communication, phone conversation, and quarterly investment meetings. Essentially hiring a Chief Investment Officer (CIO).

Oh, and yes, part of the $1 million should be put in direct real estate investments such as residential and commerical via syndicate deals. REITs take away too many of the tax and leverage advantages of real estate.

Hey Tim, I was at the meeting as well and I remember that question, I thought it was a good one.

But I would suggest not listening to any of these guys here, like Warren Buffett said when he answered your question, “don’t listen to people who benefit from your decisions.” He said it differently but that was the jist.

Buffett doesn’t listen to brokers, or financial advisors. Be an independent thinker. Learn from the best and only the best, and apply it. Keep going to the meetings and be an independent thinker and you will succeed.

Definitely not a waste of time question. Substitute age 30 with age 65 and Warren’s answer would’ve been the same.

Think about this…

Beside it being highly out of his character, why did Warren not say “put it all in Berkshire Hathaway stock”? Even despite the fact we know that this is one strategy for the “know nothing” investor to outperform the market over the long-term?

My interpretation of “put it all in a low-cost index fund” is as much a philosophical one as it is a practical one. As a “know nothing” investor, you add no value to the system, and so there is no reason why you should expect to outperform the market. This is Warren’s rebuttal of the “something for nothing” argument if you will…

He then dangles a big fat carrot in front of you: “There are situations, for the full-time investor, where it’d be a mistake not to invest 50% of your net worth in one business.”

What “situations”?

IOW, if you want to know how to outperform the market, go find out. Add value to the system. Do the research. Learn how to value a business. Learn how to think about market fluctuations. Learn how to communicate well. Read “The Intelligent Investor”. Become a “know something” investor.

@Brian
Thanks for offering that book for free. I prefer reading things in paper-form and certainly people could also check “The Richest Man in Babylon” out from a library rather than buying it. Your site does look interesting. I would argue that using predefined allocations for assets is not the best way to handle investing. Each person’s goals are different, and I also think that what made sense in 1985, 1995, or 2005 doesn’t necessarily make sense now. Investing in Microsoft in 1985 might have made a lot of sense; there was plenty of growth opportunity and you could buy into the company at a very small price. The same applies to General Electric or Proctor & Gamble. They made sense once, and if you’d bought early-on they would be great to own now (dividends, etc.), but it makes no sense to jump in now. The same applies to asset classes. Each point in history is different. Each person is at a different point in life. I believe the principles in “The Richest Man in Babylon” are sound, and that the lack of recommendation of any specific allocation makes it more timeless.

Last year I earned a 115% return.
The year before about the same.
In the last 5 years I have never had returns below 40%.
At 38 I have been retired for 7 years and haven’t bought a single stock in about 20 years. And never will.

This is how I grew about 100K into several million sitting mostly at home:

Even though I am behind in my personal investment strategies due to poor choices and life challenges I know that Mr. Buffett’s sage advice makes sense and will take the advice and put it to action when able.

I think my personal moral obligation is to earn income at level that lets me live a lifestyle congruent to how I want my present and future to look like. Example: a family, lots of travel and learning, and freedom to be with the people I love and add contribution with more time and resources to help others in my own special way.

I read a great book called “All Your Worth” that doesn’t speak of investments purse. It’s for the set of people like me who are still learning how to spend wisely. Most people in credit burdened America don’t have a spending plan. I know you speak of how to spend in your own way in your book by focusing on your dreams and making choices that help facilitate say a trip to Costa Rica or Argentina.

Regarding yr qn:
“If you were 30 years old and had no dependents but a full-time job that precluded full-time investing, how would you invest your first million dollars, assuming that you can cover 18 months of expenses with other savings? Thank you in advance for being as specific as possible with asset classes and allocation percentage.”
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A general line of approach may be:

1) Invest in nothing for first six months. Just read up on the investment books, from the basics to the advanced kind (i.e. options/CFD trading/real estate etc). Read up on the best investors/traders.

2) Decide on a few suitable investing/trading methods and start testing using the first 100K for the next 6-12 months. During this period, decide whether which asset/method is most appropriate for you, in terms of psychology, charactor and knowledge.

3) Once you find your most suitable method, you can start to commit the rest of the cash to the chosen investment method. For some, the most suitable method may include passive investing and/or find work in vocations that you like.

Personally, if your given scenario happens, I would commit 90% to equities (active investing) and 10% to cash (for unforseen accidents or investment opportunities). And if I am unemployed, I may find a job in my desired line of work if I find jobless life too boring.

tim, tim, tim! what would you do if you were 25 year old with no dependents, a full time job, didnt want to pay advisor commisions for the next 50 years, how would you invest your first $AUD 125,000. Ps i want to double my money asap so i can go build a house in prague, with my 30 yr old missus.

Tim and All-
I have been a student of Buffet and Munger for years. I’m going to offer you all some of the greatest life hacks for free…

1. Do exactly what they suggest and do not be tricked into deviating from their financial advice. Do not overthink their words. They are simple to understand and meant to be so. Do not listen to “interpretations” by people trying to sell you on their services or method guaranteeing “better returns”.

2. Read “Poor Charlie’s Almanack”.

3. Figure out what you would do for free early, and try to spend your life doing that.

No one in these posts have referenced item number TWO – In my opinion this was the key component to WB’s advice – If you made $1M USD after tax cash by the age 30 then why would you bet on anything other than what you had been doing in the past to generate more money? Follow what you know works for you to make more money AND invest your extra cash into solid performing known index funds and you will always come out ahead.

If you look at WB and the portfolio companies he adds to BH, this simple concept in his advice has served him well.

I would invest in an under-performing commercial real estate property (a business).

WIth the right type of project you should be able to make routinely 25% to 40% return on your investment and create powerful streams of income.

1. Leverage, 1 M (down payment) will buy you at least 5 Million in assets (you can’t do that with securities)

OR buy with all cash, for a significant discount on the property.

2. Forced Appreciation, With basic improvements and briging in new tenancts (done by brokers or property managers) you control the increase in value of your investment (you don’t have this control in the stock market)

3. The asset while more time intensive than securities, is managed by professionals and requires and generates stable streams of monthly income.

4. Tax advantages of retal income and depreciation of the property. These items reduce and defer tax liability.

5. Insurance. Even if the business burns up your ivestment dollars are covered. (not a chance that you can insure your S&P 500 index funds agains loss)

we can’t follow Buffet’s advices, he plays in a different league. He doesn’t buy stocks, he buys the whole company. To buy an index fund (etf) and forget? impossible for we little guy if you don’t have a risk management system and entry-exit rules that proved to work in the last 20 years. otherwise fear and greed , investor’s worst enemies, will destroy you as you see 30% of your investments wiped off in the next bear market. Protect your investment, you must do that, your broker won’t, it’s not his job. cash IS an asset during bear market.

eliminate the middle man..that’s why I love IFs and WBs advice. Anyone know the safest way to invest US$ on international trading floors other than iShares? Good god Brazil’s been doing great (EWZ)..I predict Argentina will be next..one word my commodity-loving friends: soybeans

If I had a million dollars to invest I wouldn’t need a full time job and I could then spend my time focused on investing. Heck with a return 2-5 % above inflation one can travel the world and live like a king. If this is the case anything from CDs to index funds, preferably allocated in strong currencies, will do.

Hey Tim, I just finished reading your book today and it’s awesome! As far as how I would invest my first $1mil

I would invest 80% in stocks (this includes options), short term and intermediate bonds borrow against the interest on the bonds once matured, FX (Foreign Exchange), precious metals (i.e. invest in gold, silver, platinum and palladium) as a financial hedge, open an SEP or a 401(b) if owing a small business.

of the 80% this would be my breakdown:

5% in stocks, bonds and fx
15% in metals
10% in futures
15% in SEP or 401(b)
20% in RE (Real Estate, raw land or flipping)

10% in to a Vanguard CRT (Charitable Remainder Trust) (min. 100/mo to charities that are listed on their page to a max. of $500/mo last time I talked to Vanguard )

Remaining 10% I would spend traveling, skydiving, and playing volleyball (and hopefully play on the Association of Volleyball Professionals (AVP)) with a nick name of “Mini-me” since most of the guys avg. about 6’2.” (I’m 5’9″)

My wife sent to me this link, and when I read what Mr. Buffett has to say to achieve success If you have money to invest and a job. It was clear to me that my own ideas and strategies are not far off from achieving success.
I’m developing a company that basically is what Mr.Buffett’s strategy its all about, and while he mentions to put everything on S&P 500 I have a strategy that changes accordingly to different markets. It might sound like a hedge fund but is actually an anti-hedge fund.

I believe the strategy is sound and now that I know that Warren Buffett endorses such a idea I’m more excited to start my strategy.