Crews expect arctic blast in Upstate before end of season

Thursday

Nov 29, 2012 at 12:01 AMNov 30, 2012 at 1:34 AM

The holidays aren't the only season fast approaching. Residents soon might contend with snow, sleet and wintry weather — and an arctic weather pattern could mean a greater chance for all three in the coming months.

By KIM KIMZEYkim.kimzey@shj.com

The holidays aren't the only season fast approaching. Residents soon might contend with snow, sleet and wintry weather — and an arctic weather pattern could mean a greater chance for all three in the coming months.To prepare for such hazards, about 70 first responders and others attended the Spartanburg County Office of Emergency Management's annual winter weather workshop on Thursday on the campus of Spartanburg Community College. Employees with local schools, 911 dispatchers, utilities and public safety agencies were among the attendees.Spartanburg County Emergency Management Coordinator Doug Bryson said officials are encouraging people to begin making preparations for inclement weather that could occur in coming months — even as temperatures this weekend are expected near 70 degrees.“That's really the focus that we will be taking, particularly in an ice storm,” Bryson said. “We just ask people to be aware and don't be fooled by warm, sunny conditions today, because in a moment's notice we can have anything from tornadoes to ice and snow storms.”Bryson recommends that people have a weather alert radio to hear warnings from the National Weather Service, develop a plan in case they need to relocate after a severe storm, and ensure they have water, food and other basic necessities in case of a power outage.Bryson had been in his current position about four months when the ice storm hit in December 2005. That storm left more than 700,000 Duke Energy customers in the Carolinas without power — many of them for several days.“That (ice storm) was an eye-opening experience … It was a real wake-up call across the county,” Bryson said. “All of our county agencies and first responders learned a great deal of lessons from that.”Bryson is confident they are better prepared to deal with a similar situation now.That could be put to the test this winter.Larry Gabric, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service's office at the Greenville-Spartanburg International Airport, said at the workshop that predictions indicate this year might be different than last year's mild winter.

The Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service is predicting a normal jet stream pattern, “but there's one more wildcard that's very, very difficult to forecast, this is the arctic oscillation,” Gabric said.Arctic oscillation has produced big winter storms in recent years, he said. The weather pattern has positive and negative phases, and the latter pushes cold air into the United States from Canada, Gabric said.“Overall, it looks like we're going to have an average to slightly greater opportunity for winter events passing nearby to us this year, as opposed to last year when we had basically nothing,” Gabric said. “There's more potential this year for storm systems creating messy mixturesof rain, snow, freezing rain.”The National Weather Service, Gabric said, issues winter storm outlooks in the Upstate when there is a 30 percent confidence of winter weather. A winter storm watch is issued with 50 percent confidence, and a winter storm warning or advisory is issued with 80 percent confidence. Advisories and warnings are issued 12 to 24 hours in advance, depending on the inches of expected snowfall.Derrec Becker, public information director of the S.C. Emergency Management Division, told attendees that a weather radio is “your best first and sometimes only line of defense.”Becker said the agency is updating its website, www.scemd.org, and is aggressively using social media to get the word out about weather emergencies.Social media is another means of communicating emergency and safety information, he said.