Jeffrey Rubin

Former Chief Economist, CIBC World Markets

Jeff Rubin has been the top-ranked economist in Canadian financial markets for more than a decade. Throughout his career, Mr. Rubin's work has often been the subject of national headlines and has been instrumental in raising key issues to the national spotlight. Abroad, he is best known for his work on global energy markets, and he has become internationally recognized for his prescient calls on oil prices and their economic impacts.

Mr. Rubin stepped down as Chief Economist at CIBC World Markets (a position he held since 1992), to devote his time exclusively to speaking and writing on economic issues. His internationally bestselling book, Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller, published by Random House in the US and Canada and Virgin Books in the UK, has now been published in over 15 countries and in seven different languages. The book recently won Canada’s National Business Book Award and was a runner-up for the Financial Times Business Book of the Year Award.

Mr. Rubin’s opinions have been widely reported in the international media. He wrote a widely followed national column in the Globe and Mail, “Ahead of the Curve,” and he has been a fixture on network coverage of the federal budget and other key economic events for almost two decades. He has also made numerous television appearances on ABC, CBS, CNN and CNBC. His opinions and insights have appeared on the front page of the New York Times, as well as in the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, USA Today, Financial Times, BusinessWeek, Newsweek and the Economist.

On the podium, Jeff Rubin is a provocative speaker who brings unparalleled experience, insight and candor to his presentations. Whether speaking about the current economic climate or the impact of energy scarcity and rising oil prices on globalization, he paints a compelling picture of the future--exploring what the new global economy will look like and what it will mean for all of us.

Big Oil is discovering that blindly chasing production growth through developing ever more costly reserves isn't contributing to the bottom line. Maybe that's a message Canada's oil sands producers need to be listening to as well.

How the world has changed for Canada's farmers in 2013. The hottest sector of the country's real estate market is, you guessed it, farmland. The price of farmland in Canada has outpaced both residential and commercial real estate, gaining an average of 12 percent over the last five years. In some hotspots, such as southwestern Ontario, the price-per-acre has been going up by as much as 50 percent a year. Even pension plans and hedge funds have become players in the pursuit of prime agricultural land, interest that is only sending prices that much higher.

The U.S. military has targets picked out in Syria and President Obama is trying to convince Congress that America needs to intervene. If the U.S. does go ahead with tactical strikes against the Assad regime, oil markets will be caught in the middle. Any significant reduction in exports will be felt in the rest of the world.

Canadian drivers may think that TransCanada's Energy East pipeline, which will allow Alberta to ramp up oil sands production while boosting the flow of oil to eastern Canada, will translate into lower pump prices. Think again.

The grim news is that we've gone from bad to worse when it comes to how we move oil around North America. With oil prices now back in triple-digit territory, there is, at least, a glimmer of hope. The same high prices that are spurring producers to load crude on to train cars are about to, once again, curb our appetite for the fuel.

We don't have to risk the destruction of one of the world's most spectacular environments to get full value from our oil sands resource. Of course, we have to put refineries in environments that can best handle them and not in areas that can't. The recent proposal to build a refinery in Kitimat is an example of building one in the wrong place. That's why I'm saying no to the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline and yes to a more sustainable future for the Great Bear region.

Without pipeline access to the Gulf, or to the Pacific to supply Chinese customers, Canadian oil producers get what Midwest refineries will give them. And that's a huge discount to what the rest of the world will pay. If Canadian oil exporters can't get to world prices through the proposed Keystone XL pipeline to the Gulf of Mexico, they must find another route for their oil to flow.

Peak oil as it turns out isn't about supply but rather demand. It is a concept rooted more in economics than geology. It doesn't matter if there are billions of barrels of oil waiting to be tapped from oil sands or oil shales if the prices to extract them are beyond our economies' capacity to pay.

The IEA warned that unless OPEC could increase production by at least 1.5 million barrels a day, world oil demand is going to surpass available supply during the second half of the year. If there is not enough supply to match the global economy's consumption, world oil prices have only one direction to go.

Just like water doesn't flow uphill, oil can't be expected to flow in ways that defy price gravity. Basic economics says Canadian oil will ultimately flow to where it gets its greatest return. And that isn't to already near full storage tanks in Cushing.

Will timely releases from strategic oil reserves become the new kid on the block in the Obama administration's economic tool kit? But Washington may soon discover strategic oil reserves are a very dangerous instrument to use.