Corn/soybeans getting better vs. freeze risk

Corn and soybeans continue to march towards maturity with improving yield
potential, as rains the past few weeks and moderate temps have allowed the crop
to continue to improve in yield potential. Pro Ag yield models continue to
reach toward new highs, with corn yields now estimated over 161 bu/acre, and
soybeans stretching towards 43.6 bu/acre. These are once again running to new
high yield potential as we move closer to maturity.

The only problem is we also are running out of time to reach maturity, as the
normal frost dates loom for a crop that was late in getting planted, is getting
less GDD's than normal, and is running into fall and normal freeze dates with
temps mostly running below normal. That is not a good combination, especially
for states in northern/frost susceptible areas. It is a collision course that
the record yield potential, late developing crop is running towards its first
frost date. It is inevitable as late as the corn crop is that at least some of
it will be lost to frost damage. The only question at this point is, how much
will be lost of our 161 bu/acre corn crop? Will it be 1 bu/acre? 2 bu? 5 Bu?
Or >5 bu/acre lost to frost?

The discussion centers around corn, as corn is the crop least able to adjust to
the lateness of the crop. It will be a shame that the crop looks so good, but
is so late, and some of that great looking crop will just simply be disked down.
How much? What yield will be lost to low test weight on harvestable acres?
These are important questions for now. Pro Ag would suggest with a normal frost
date that 2-4 bu/acre national yields will be lost due to freeze damage. A very
early freeze might do more damage (double???), while a late freeze could drop
the damage to 1 bu/acre or so. But there will be yield lost (northern ND/MN
will take a miracle to make grain?).

Soybeans could be a different story, as with normal frost dates most of the
soybeans may yet reach maturity. Soybeans are a crop that seems able to adjust
the plant for the day length, and certainly days are getting shorter now as we
move forward in time. There may be some yield potential that the plant gives
up, but more than likely most if not virtually all of the soybeans could be
harvestable crop. That could mean soybeans might be more likely to have record
or near record large crops this year, especially given the timely rains thus far
in August that most of the country has participated in. With little heat damage
in places like the Delta, HRW wheat country, and southern corn belt areas (where
heat usually reduces yield potential), it could be surprising how good soybean
yields might be nationally.

While outside markets have dominated recent market movement, overall soybeans
seems to be losing ground to corn. Perhaps the corn is more threatened by the
freeze potential??? While outside markets equally affect corn and soybeans,
corn may find more support through the frost season, while soybeans might be
clear of potential damage by mid to late September. Look for soybeans to come
under more pressure than corn as we move through the frost threatened time
period.