Oscar Watch looks to break down the different categories for the 2014 Academy Awards. We’ll do our best to give you the inside track for your Oscar pools. Above: Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle.

Who Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

I know what you’re probably thinking . . . “Matt, you’re in love with JLaw, of course you’d give her the Academy Award!” If she were being nominated for her Catching Fire performance, or if there was someone who really, I mean REALLY, blew me away in the Supporting Actress category, then I’d say, yes, you’re proclamation would carry some weight. The fact of the matter is that Jennifer Lawrence is really damn good in American Hustle. She simply fades into the role of Rosalyn, Christan Bale’s unpredictable New York housewife. While she’s very good in the “science oven” scene where she nags at Bale’s character with that smug and chirpy voice; it’s probably the lunch scene with her new beau Pete where she laments her fear of change where she really hits it out of the park.

On everyone else . . .

Sally Hawkins: For Hawkins, since I haven’t seen her performance, I can only go off of what I’ve heard and read, which is that though she is well respected by her peers, this is a case of where the nomination itself is the reward. Having been passed over for her lead performance in the 2008 film Happy-Go-Lucky, many feel this nomination is an overdue mulligan from The Academy.

June Squibb: Squibb is a funny and overbearing wife in Nebraska, almost too funny at times. In fact in one scene involving speaking about deceased relatives as she stands over their graves, she goes a little over the top by flashing a headstone and taunting the person in it. Could it have been a convention of the screen writing and not the actress? Could be, but even still, I can’t help but feel she has a bunch of Betty White-like moments in the film–creating laughs by having an old white lady saying raunchy things. It’s humor derived from a convention more than a performance; good enough to get you nominated, but not Oscar worthy.

Julia Roberts: Though the former Oscar winner has a juicy role as Meryl Streep’s daughter in August: Osage County, that’s about all Roberts has going for her in this race. Before the season August was seen a potentially powerful Oscar contender. After opening to mixed/lukewarm reviews from critics, only a pair of actress nominations remain for the film. Roberts is probably bringing up the rear on this one so it’s good that she’s got a statue to comfort her already.

Lupita Nyong’o: Supporting actress is really a two horse race between Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong’o. I’ve talked about JLaw’s performance already and Nyong’o’s is as good if not better. You would be hard pressed to not to feel a deep sense of pain for the suffering her character goes through in 12 Years a Slave. As the fast picking cotton slave, Nyong’o’s Patsey is a shining star and favorite to master Edwin Epps, which puts her in many difficult situations–including one that is literally hard to watch. Nyong’o’s got a Screen Actors Guild (SAG) award in her back pocket so her performance in the film is being recognized by her peers.

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Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Conventional wisdom might tell you that the chances The Academy would award someone so young acting Oscars in back to back years is slim to none. When you take into account that the last person to do so was Tom Hanks (Philadelphia in ‘93 & Forrest Gump in ‘94) and that no one has ever done it across acting categories, it’s a pretty bold prediction. Hell, at first blush I knew this would be a major hurdle for her awards chances. But here’s where I think it’s very plausible . . .

As I mentioned previously, the is race between Nyong’o and Lawrence. They both have really great performances and on any given day you probably could pick one over the other. Calling that a wash and throwing that out, we now have to look at everything else.

The big award that Nyong’o has going for her is that she won the SAG award for her category–which could portend that The Academy acting branch is behind her. However, Lawrence has two awards to Nyong’o’s to lone one: a Golden Globe and a BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts). I don’t believe in the Globes, but in the awards race they do account for something. The bigger award for Lawrence here is her BAFTA win. This could be a signal that the British block of Academy voters (a subset of the acting branch) could throw their weight behind her.

Moving on to broader speaking terms, American Hustle is a film that has more mass appeal than 12 Years a Slave. I sincerely hope the rumors of Academy members not watching 12 Years due to it being a ‘difficult watch’ are quite frankly that–rumors; but if they’re not then more voters will have seen Lawrence’s role than Nyong’o’s. More viewers should equate to more votes.

Finally, while it’s not generally a category that’s prone to race discrimination (Octavia Spencer, Mo’Nique, Jennifer Hudson, and Whoopi Goldberg have all won the award; Spencer, Mo’Nique, and Hudson within the last ten years), you never know when it could rear it’s ugly head. Remember now, we’re talking about group of people who are predominantly older and white. In a tight race between an African-American actress and a caucasian actress can we say with a 100% certainty that race won’t be a factor? I hope to God it won’t, but when you’re analyzing the system you have to take things like this into account.

With great performances for Nyong’o and Lawrence, Lawrence’s two awards wins to Nyong’o’s one, mass appeal of American Hustle vs 12 Years, and the ugly head of racism rearing its ugly head; that is why I think a second Oscar, and back to back, win for Jennifer Lawrence is very possible.

What are you thoughts on our best supporting actress prediction? Give us your thoughts on the category in the comments.