Bengaluru: By 2021, more members of the global population will be using mobile phones (5.5 billion) than bank accounts (5.4 billion), running water (5.3 billion), or landlines (2.9 billion), according to the 11th annual Cisco Visual Networking Index™ (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast (2016 to 2021). Strong growth in mobile users, smartphones and Internet of Things (IoT) connections as well as network speed improvements and mobile video consumption are projected to increase mobile data traffic seven-fold over the next five years.

By 2021, Cisco projects mobile data traffic will achieve the following milestones:

• Mobile data traffic to represent 20 percent of total IP traffic—up from just 8 percent of total IP traffic in 2016

• Machine-to-machine (M2M) connections will represent 29 percent (3.3 billion) of total mobile connections—up from 5 percent (780 million) in 2016. M2M will be the fastest growing mobile connection type as global IoT applications continue to gain traction in consumer and business environments

• 4G will support 58 percent of total mobile connections by 2021—up from 26 percent in 2016, and will account for 79 percent of total mobile data traffic

• The total number of smartphones (including phablets) will be over 50 percent of global devices and connections (6.2 billion)—up from 3.6 billion in 2016

The explosion of mobile applications and adoption of mobile connectivity by end users is fueling the growth of 4G, soon to be followed by 5G growth. Cisco and other industry experts anticipate large-scale deployments of 5G infrastructures to begin by 2020. Mobile carriers will need the innovative speed, low latency, and dynamic provisioning capabilities that 5G networks are expected to deliver not just increasing subscriber demands, but also new services trends across mobile, residential, and business markets. Cisco forecasts that 5G will account for 1.5 percent of total mobile data traffic by 2021, and will generate 4.7 times more traffic than the average 4G connection and 10.7 times more traffic than the average 3G connection.

“With the proliferation of IoT, live mobile video, augmented and virtual reality applications, and more innovative experiences for consumer and business users alike, 5G technology will have significant relevance not just for mobility but rather for networking as a whole,” said Doug Webster, Vice President of Service Provider Marketing at Cisco. “As a result, broader and more extensive architectural transformations involving programmability and automation will also be needed to support the capabilities 5G enables, and to address not just today’s demands but also the extensive possibilities on the horizon.”

“As India leaps towards a digital economy, 2016 alone saw a huge growth in mobile traffic – by 76% from last year and, by 2021 consumer mobile traffic will grow 7.4-fold at a CAGR of 49% y-o-y. Much of this growth will be fueled by massive consumer adoption of smartphones, IoT, smart devices and use of machine-to-machine connections with an estimated 1,380 million mobile-connected devices by 2021. As the Internet of Everything gains momentum, we are clearly headed towards a new era in Internet communications, with M2M connections predicted to increase 17-fold at a CAGR of 76% y-o-y. The way we use connectivity in devices today will change businesses, government, healthcare, agriculture, manufacturing, retail, transportation and other key industries.”

• Wi-Fi traffic from both mobile devices and Wi-Fi-only devices, together, will account for almost half (49 percent) of total IP traffic by 2020, up from 42 percent in 2015.

6. Regional mobile data traffic growth (2016 – 2021)

1. The Middle East and Africa will have 12-fold growth

(2016: 7.3 exabytes/year; 2021: 88.4 exabytes/year)

2. Asia-Pacific will have 7-fold growth

(2016: 37.3 exabytes/year; 2021: 274.2 exabytes/year)

3. Latin America will have 6-fold growth

(2016: 5.4 exabytes/year; 2021: 34.8 exabytes/year)

4. Central and Eastern Europe will have 6-fold growth

(2016: 11.1 exabytes/year; 2021: 63.0 exabytes/year)

5. Western Europe will have 6-fold growth

(2016: 8.8 exabytes/year; 2021: 50.3 exabytes/year)

6. North America will have 5-fold growth

(2016: 16.9 exabytes/year; 2021: 76.8 exabytes/year)

Cisco Mobile VNI Forecast Methodology

The Cisco® VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast (2016 2021) relies upon independent analyst forecasts and real-world mobile data usage studies. Upon this foundation are layered Cisco’s own estimates for mobile application adoption, minutes of use and transmission speeds. Key enablers such as mobile broadband speed and device computing power are also factored into Cisco mobile VNI projections and findings. A detailed methodology description is included in the complete report (see link below).

• For more information about Cisco’s service provider news and activities visit the SP360 Blog or follow us on Twitter @CiscoVNI.

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