Bottom Line:
However, the role of the public's socio-environmental sensitivities to low carbon energy technologies and their responses to energy deployments does not receive much serious attention in planning decarbonisation pathways to 2050.The scenarios represent risk aversion (DREAD) which avoids deployment of potentially unsafe large-scale technology, local protectionism (NIMBY) that constrains systems to their existing spatial footprint, and environmental awareness (ECO) where protection of natural resources is paramount.Very different solutions for all three sets of constraints are identified; some seem slightly implausible (DREAD) and all show increased cost (especially in ECO).

ABSTRACTLow carbon energy technologies are not deployed in a social vacuum; there are a variety of complex ways in which people understand and engage with these technologies and the changing energy system overall. However, the role of the public's socio-environmental sensitivities to low carbon energy technologies and their responses to energy deployments does not receive much serious attention in planning decarbonisation pathways to 2050. Resistance to certain resources and technologies based on particular socio-environmental sensitivities would alter the portfolio of options available which could shape how the energy system achieves decarbonisation (the decarbonisation pathway) as well as affecting the cost and achievability of decarbonisation. Thus, this paper presents a series of three modelled scenarios which illustrate the way that a variety of socio-environmental sensitivities could impact the development of the energy system and the decarbonisation pathway. The scenarios represent risk aversion (DREAD) which avoids deployment of potentially unsafe large-scale technology, local protectionism (NIMBY) that constrains systems to their existing spatial footprint, and environmental awareness (ECO) where protection of natural resources is paramount. Very different solutions for all three sets of constraints are identified; some seem slightly implausible (DREAD) and all show increased cost (especially in ECO).

Mentions:
In all scenarios, including the LC scenario, there is a general trend for increasing need to reduce demand over time, reflecting the generally increasing cost of the supply mix, which is in turn driven by the increasing carbon constraint. Yet, for all three socio-environmental scenarios, the additional constraints on the system arising from the limits placed on key technologies cause some level of increased demand reduction across different sectors of the energy system (such as industry residential, and transport). The varying level of demand reduction depends in part on the relative costs of demand reduction and decarbonising power generation. As an example, the demand reduction in residential electricity and gas (Figures 4 and 5) shows an increasing trend over time as well as increased demand reductions in the socio-environmental scenarios.

Mentions:
In all scenarios, including the LC scenario, there is a general trend for increasing need to reduce demand over time, reflecting the generally increasing cost of the supply mix, which is in turn driven by the increasing carbon constraint. Yet, for all three socio-environmental scenarios, the additional constraints on the system arising from the limits placed on key technologies cause some level of increased demand reduction across different sectors of the energy system (such as industry residential, and transport). The varying level of demand reduction depends in part on the relative costs of demand reduction and decarbonising power generation. As an example, the demand reduction in residential electricity and gas (Figures 4 and 5) shows an increasing trend over time as well as increased demand reductions in the socio-environmental scenarios.

Bottom Line:
However, the role of the public's socio-environmental sensitivities to low carbon energy technologies and their responses to energy deployments does not receive much serious attention in planning decarbonisation pathways to 2050.The scenarios represent risk aversion (DREAD) which avoids deployment of potentially unsafe large-scale technology, local protectionism (NIMBY) that constrains systems to their existing spatial footprint, and environmental awareness (ECO) where protection of natural resources is paramount.Very different solutions for all three sets of constraints are identified; some seem slightly implausible (DREAD) and all show increased cost (especially in ECO).

ABSTRACTLow carbon energy technologies are not deployed in a social vacuum; there are a variety of complex ways in which people understand and engage with these technologies and the changing energy system overall. However, the role of the public's socio-environmental sensitivities to low carbon energy technologies and their responses to energy deployments does not receive much serious attention in planning decarbonisation pathways to 2050. Resistance to certain resources and technologies based on particular socio-environmental sensitivities would alter the portfolio of options available which could shape how the energy system achieves decarbonisation (the decarbonisation pathway) as well as affecting the cost and achievability of decarbonisation. Thus, this paper presents a series of three modelled scenarios which illustrate the way that a variety of socio-environmental sensitivities could impact the development of the energy system and the decarbonisation pathway. The scenarios represent risk aversion (DREAD) which avoids deployment of potentially unsafe large-scale technology, local protectionism (NIMBY) that constrains systems to their existing spatial footprint, and environmental awareness (ECO) where protection of natural resources is paramount. Very different solutions for all three sets of constraints are identified; some seem slightly implausible (DREAD) and all show increased cost (especially in ECO).