by Patrick Stevens, Special for USA TODAY Sports

by Patrick Stevens, Special for USA TODAY Sports

With Friday done and many borderline NCAA tournament teams done, the once cloudy picture surrounding the final few at-large slots is down to monitoring the handful of possible bid thieves remaining in conference tournaments.

This is the group of teams the Boise States, La Salles, Middle Tennessees, Virginias and others will be keeping an eye on Saturday and potentially even Sunday as well. If any of this group plays its way into the field, either by improving its at-large status or snatching an automatic bid with a conference tournament crown, it means one less slot for current teams on the edge of the field:

Alabama: The Crimson Tide doesn't own a top-50 victory after Kentucky's flameout in the SEC tournament. Alabama might just have to win the league, but a victory over Florida in Saturday's semifinals would give it easily its best result of the season.

Maryland: The Terrapins snagged a second victory over Duke in a four-week span in the ACC quarterfinals, and faces North Carolina in the semifinals. Even one more victory might not be enough for a team whose poor non-conference schedule will act as an anchor.

Massachusetts: The Minutemen secured a fabulous result Friday against Temple, but probably need one more victory to have a realistic shot. That opportunity comes in Brooklyn against Virginia Commonwealth.

Mississippi/Vanderbilt winner: There will be a possible bid snatcher in the SEC championship game. Mississippi's profile improved with a defeat of Missouri, but a triumph over Vanderbilt isn't going to help the Rebels much. Vanderbilt is halfway to an improbable SEC title, which is the only way the Commodores are reaching the field of 68.

Southern Mississippi: The Golden Eagles don't have a top-50 victory and a limited resume, but they do get a third shot at Memphis. Conference USA is one-bid territory if Memphis wins, but Southern Miss could bump the Tigers into the at-large pool.

On the hot seat: Duke

On Friday, one of the main topics of this daily rundown was Minnesota's NCAA hopes in relation to the recency effect.

The basic premise: Just because the Golden Gophers were subpar in the second half of the season, it doesn't mean the first 16 games don't count. And while Minnesota's prospects of a long tournament run are dim, it doesn't mean it is in any danger of getting omitted.

So let's look at how forgetful people became when Duke stumbled against Maryland in the ACC quarterfinals.

This is the same Duke that is ranked No. 1 in the RPI, that played the nation's toughest schedule, that played the nation's toughest nonconference schedule, that went 11-5 on road and neutral courts, has six top-25 wins (only Indiana has more), has nine top-50 wins (only Kansas has more), has no losses to teams outside the top 100 and is 18-1 with the full roster it will take into the postseason.

There aren't four teams with a better profile than that. There won't be four teams with a better profile than that when the regular season is completed when the Big Ten title game goes final on Sunday afternoon.

And that's why you shouldn't expect to see Duke as anything but a No. 1 seed when the bracket is unveiled tomorrow, even if the most recent memory of the Blue Devils was failing to defend a scorching Maryland bunch.

Nightly winners:

Teams that took a step forward on Friday...

Massachusetts: The Minutemen's mundane résumé received a substantial boost when they knocked off Temple in the final game of the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals. With so many other teams fading, UMass could make a push for a six-team A-10 contingent in the field of 68.

Maryland: The Terrapins have plenty more work to do, but have won back-to-back games for the first time since Feb. 2-7 during their stay in the ACC tournament. Maryland's emphatic dismissal of Duke was its second victory over the Blue Devils; alas, with a poor non-conference schedule and only three top-50 victories, there is still much work to be done.

Mississippi: No, the Rebels won't bolster their at-large profile with a victory over Vanderbilt in the SEC semifinals, but everything else came up Mississippi on Friday. The Rebels rallied past Missouri, and saw a plethora of other borderline teams (including Kentucky and Tennessee) flail out of their respective conference tournaments.

Nightly losers:

Teams that took a step back Friday...

Kentucky: The Wildcats' peak in the post-Nerlens Noel era is home triumphs over Florida and Missouri. Their floor? Getting skunked by Vanderbilt in the SEC quarterfinals. Kentucky simply doesn't have a résumé deep enough to warrant an NCAA bid.

Tennessee: The Volunteers weren't quite in "win-and-you're-in-territory," but it's going to be hard to including a team that can hardly beat anyone decent outside of Knoxville. Tennessee lost in the SEC quarterfinals to Alabama to severely damage its NCAA hopes.

Virginia: The Cavaliers really could have used a victory over N.C. State in the ACC quarterfinals, but let's face it: Nothing was going to make Virginia's résumé substantially less wacky. Losing to the Wolfpack on Tobacco Road was a mundane result for the Cavaliers, who weren't particularly competitive. Nonetheless, it's hard to know for sure just how their weird profile will be interpreted.

Résumé worth dissecting: Boise State

The Broncos won five of six to close the regular season, doing their part to leave an impression by handling Colorado State and San Diego State on back-to-back Saturdays, then lost to San Diego State in the Mountain West quarterfinals. Based on overall profile, Boise State should slide into the field before fellow mid-major bubblers Saint Mary's and Middle Tennessee, which also lost in their conference tournaments. Still, the Broncos are vulnerable, and the decision about their inclusion could be interpreted as a judgment on some of their Mountain West brethren considering those solid home conference wins are the foundation of much of their résumé.

On deck:

Albany at Vermont (11:30 a.m. ET, ESPN2): The host Catamounts look for their second consecutive America East title in the first of several one-bid league championship games on the day.

Memphis vs. Southern Mississippi (11:30 a.m. ET, CBS): Bubblers will be rooting for Memphis to close out a 19-0 season against Conference USA foes and prevent the conference from snagging a second bid.

Alabama vs. Florida (1 p.m. ET, ABC): The Crimson Tide's postseason hopes rest on winning at least once more, and that might not even be enough. But upending the Gators would be a huge get for Anthony Grant's team.

Maryland vs. North Carolina (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ACC Network): The Terrapins are NIT fodder with a loss, but would have three-quarters of a Tobacco Road sweep heading into the ACC title game (possibly against N.C. State) with a victory.

Mississippi vs. Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC): The winner stays alive in the chase to spoil what could easily become the Florida Invitational.

Prairie View A&M vs. Southern (4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): Southern is the top seed in the SWAC. Prairie View is 14-18. Only one of these teams has a chance to avoid a trip to Dayton with a win. You can probably guess which.

Morgan State vs. North Carolina A&T (5 p.m. ET, ESPNU): The upset-ravaged MEAC tournament comes to a close in Norfolk. Fifth-seeded Morgan State won the regular-season meeting on A&T's home floor.

Kansas vs. Kansas State (6 p.m. ET, ESPN): Are the Jayhawks capable of landing a No. 1 seed? The only way that answer is yes is if they complete a three-game sweep of their Sunflower State rivals in the Big 12 final.

New Mexico at UNLV (6 p.m. ET, CBS): The Mountain West title comes down to the Lobos and the Rebels, who split two regular-season games. UNLV has the home-court edge in Round Three.

Akron vs. Ohio (6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): The top two teams in the Mid-American Conference meet in Cleveland. Akron won the 2009 and 2011 MAC titles, while Ohio captured the league in 2010 and 2012.

Louisville vs. Syracuse (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): The week-long nostalgia for the Big East of the past comes to an end as the Cardinals look to pin down a conference tournament title while facing one of the league's traditional powers.

Northwestern State vs. Stephen F. Austin (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): The top two teams in the Southland meet to determine an automatic bid. Beware Stephen F. Austin's miserly defense, one of the nation's best.

Montana vs. Weber State (9 p.m. ET, ESPNU): The Grizzlies and Wildcats have combined for seven of the eight spots in the Big Sky title game over the last four years. Weber State, however, hasn't won the title since 2007, and the game will be played on Montana's home court.

Pacific vs. UC Irvine (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): Bob Thomason, who led Pacific to victories in the NCAA tournament in 2004 and 2005, is retiring at season's end and can go out as a conference champion if the Tigers win the Big West final.

Oregon vs. UCLA (11 p.m. ET, ESPN): Come for Pac-12 regular-season champ UCLA's up-tempo pace, stay for Bill Walton's withering criticism. One subplot of note: Jordan Adams, the Bruins' second-leading scorer, broke his right foot on the final play of Friday's victory over Arizona and is done for the season.

New Mexico State vs. Texas-Arlington (11:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU): New Mexico State looks to close out its third Western Athletic title in four years in the last of three conference title games played in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Stat of the day:

Maryland wants no part of joining one of the rarest groups of teams in college basketball: Those who have defeated Duke twice in a season and still missed the NCAA tournament.

The Terrapins defeated Duke in College Park in February and in Friday's ACC quarterfinals, but still can't expect to be in the tournament field at this stage. The only teams to defeat a Mike Krzyzewski-coached Duke team twice and still not earn an NCAA invitation were 2005 Maryland, 1995 Clemson, 1995 N.C. State, 1983 Wake Forest and 1982 Maryland.

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About our bracketologist: Patrick Stevens is USA TODAY Sports' bracket specialist for the 2013 NCAA tournament. He has covered college sports and projected the NCAA tournament field for more than a decade for various publications, including The Washington Times. Don't like his projections? Tweet him @D1scourse.