First, they are (under Article 50) principally about separation. Yes, transition arrangements may be covered and a future relationship sketched out. But that new future relationship will be negotiated in detail, at a later date and concluded under different EU laws and possibly fresh negotiators. That’s also why any transition will be essentially on a status quo basis.

Second, phase one and two can run concurrently. The key test is that the EU27 will judge if sufficient progress is made on phase one issues before opening phase two. Michel Barnier explicitly reiterated this point in evidence before the House of Lords Committee on July 11. He affirmed: “I am in favour of parallel negotiations, but parallels do not start at the same point.” If the UK demonstrates sufficient progress — not necessarily a final agreement — then the parallel can be opened up.

The third essential element of the negotiations is a recognition of power realities. Every step has been driven and shaped by the EU27, who have a clear strategic intent and excellent administrative resources. The British also have a fine civil service; but their leaders appear not to have a clear end goal, which makes the UK a weaker player at the table. The fundamentals of power will remain even when the dreams of departure have faded."

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23rd May 2019

SABRE Awards EMEA 2019: Grayling wins Public Affairs Consultancy of the Year

Grayling was named Public Affairs Consultancy of the Year at the SABRE Awards EMEA 2019 gala event in London. The international network, with 31 offices across 22 European countries, was honoured for...