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NCAAF Picks

Week 11 College Football Picks: Idaho Will Be Ticket Casher At Texas State

Sun Belt Conference teams Idaho and Texas State are heading in opposite directions entering Saturday's game in San Marcos. Ride the hot and fade the cold: lay the TD with the Vandals on college football odds.

Texas State hosts Idaho on Saturday in a Sun Belt Conference showdown in San Marcos. The Vandals look to become bowl eligible for the first time under coach Paul Petrino and first for the program since 2009. Texas State, on the other hand, would likely choose for the 2016 season to be over if given the chance. First-year head coach Everett Withers started his tenure off with a bang, winning Week 1 at Ohio. That has turned out to be the peak of the Bobcats' season considering they have dropped six straight in college football picks against FBS competition.

Idaho QB Matt Linehan has passed for more 200 yards in each of the last four games, all of which the Vandals cashed for their backers. Also, Linehan has lead the Vandals offense very efficiently, as outside of the Appalachian State game the Vandals have only turned the ball over once in the past three games. Why take out the App State game? Because comparing the Mountaineers' defense to what Idaho will face in Texas State’s defensive unit is useless. The difference in caliber of athletes as well as production on the field is miles apart. The Vandals should be able to move the ball at will against one of the worst defensive units in all of FBS.

Texas State came into the season with big question marks on the defensive side of the ball. The Bobcats 40 points per game and a whopping 6.4 yards per play. Many expected Tyler Jones and the Texas State offense would be able to pick up some of the slack, but not only has that not happened the Bobcats have gotten worse offensively. Jones has regressed as a passer in comparison to his 2015 campaign. He has not eclipsed the 200-yard mark in any of the Bobcats' past three games. The Bobcats are not running down the clock in a four-minute offense, either. In fact, they are mostly trying to air it out to get back into the game as they are usually playing from behind.

The inept offense from Texas State combined with a lack of defensive prowess makes TSU a prime fade candidate from this point on on college football odds. Idaho is as motivated as the Vandals have been in recent history and can lock up bowl eligibility with a win. Idaho favored by a touchdown is too cheap, and I recommend a bet on the Vandals as short road chalk.