Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – May 15, 2011):

The cancellation and renewal calls for ABC shows otherwise all went as predicted.

With that the Index bids the 2010-11 ABC season adieu, there will be no more ABC Renew / Cancel posts until September, but expect a general post in the next couple weeks on some potential changes for next season’s Renew / Cancel Index.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

After premiering to strong ratings in the Fall of 2009 its ratings declined during the Fall, and fell substantially in the Spring after a mid-season hiatus.

Returning in January 2011, the show’s ratings stayed in the 1.7-2.1 adults 18-49 ratings range, neither trending decisively up or down.

ABC also canceled Brothers & Sisters. Based on ratings this also shouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone, but some people (:coughROBERTcough:) were caught up in the where there’s smoke about another season, there must be fire nonsense. Apparently the actors and producers weren’t into a shortened season on a reduced budget.

Update 1: Mr. Sunshine also canceled. Also in the completely unsurprising department Off the Map, No Ordinary Family and Detroit 1-8-7 were canceled too.

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I think Happy Endings has a slightly better chance of renewal than Mr. Sunshine, but no combination of their individual renewal or cancellation would surprise me. Brothers & Sisters has hung around at the bottom of the “toss up” range for quite some time, but I lean just a bit on the plus side for its renewal chances.

For those who’d like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I’ll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – May 8, 2011):

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – May 1, 2011):

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This is the last week for “regular” Renew/Cancel Index posts. Next week Robert and I make our final predictions for every undecided show “Oddsmakers” style, so I figured I’d also look at just the last six weeks of show ratings in a separate short term “6 Week” Index. In many cases it shows us nothing different than the longer term Index (since 1/3/11), but a few shows stand out.

Brothers & Sisters moves from the bottom edge of the “toss up” range into the “more likely to be cancelled than renewed” range.

With last week’s uptick, Happy Endings average ratings move to the upper edge of the “toss up” range.

With just one episode in the last week following a new Modern Family (and 3 following repeats), Mr. Sunshine’s short term Index looks bleak. I’m keeping it as a “toss up” only because its overall ratings average is still quite strong.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – April 24, 2011):

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ABC’s going to renew a freshman drama, and it won’t be just to save face, as Body of Proof ratings have held up just fine, particularly for a 10pm show, and it’s likely to be renewed.

Happy Endings ratings continue to fall, hitting a 1.8 and a 1.6 for adults 18-49 last week in the Wednesday 10pm hour. It will hold in the “toss up” range for only another week, unless there’s a miracle rebound, before slipping into the “likely to be cancelled” range.

The only chance that Better With Youhas for renewal is an expanded ABC comedy block, plus terrible ABC comedy pilots (which is anybody’s guess).

Brothers & Sisters is holding at the bottom edge of the of the “toss up” range. ABC’s new Mr. Sunshine still looks like a toss up for renewal. V is just outside the “toss up” range for renewal.

Off the Map, Detroit 1-8-7 and No Ordinary Family are certain to be cancelled at the end of the season.

I’d expect the apocalypse before I’d expect Desperate Housewives to not be renewed.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – April 17, 2011):

–Happy Endings started with a 2.8 adults 18-49 rating last Wednesday at 9:30pm and followed it with a 2.3 rating at 10pm. ABC’s doubling up HE this week, running two new episodes on the 10pm hour. Holding a 2.3 rating at 10pm likely means renewal on ABC, but further declines will put the show in jeopardy.

Last Tuesday, I wondered if Better With Youstill had a small chance at renewal. After last week’s 1.5 adults 18-49 rating on its return, what little chance it had seems to be gone.

Brothers & Sisters continues to drift towards the “more likely to be cancelled than renewed” range, it’s at the very bottom of the “toss up” range. ABC’s new Mr. Sunshine still looks like a toss up for renewal. Even off the air, V continues to edge closer to the “toss up” range as the rest of ABC’s scripted show ratings slide.

Off the Map, Detroit 1-8-7 and No Ordinary Family are certain to be cancelled at the end of the season.

I’d expect the apocalypse before I’d expect Desperate Housewives to not be renewed.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – April 10, 2011):

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It’s been six weeks since we’ve seen a new episode of ABC’s freshman sitcom Better With You. It returns with a new episode this Wednesday.

Does Better With You still have a chance at a renewal?

Perhaps a very tiny one, but two things need to happen to save it, and together they may be a double bank shot into the side pocket:

Better With You’s adults 18-49 ratings need to recover to over a 2.0. It finished its early spring run with a 1.7 rating. That’s not going to cut it.

ABC needs to add more comedy time to its schedule next Fall. Paul Lee has publicly stated he’d like to do that, and ABC’s woeful record with new dramas would seem to tilt them in that direction, but that’s still a fairly big change for the network.

ABC’s last rookie drama hope of the season, Body of Proof premiered well with a 3.1 adults 18-49 rating, but fell to a 2.0 rating following Desperate Housewives on the following Sunday before recovering to a 2.4 rating last week. That’s still good enough for renewal on the drama challenged ABC, but as usual, the third week of a new show’s ratings is the most useful for determining future ratings trends. Stay tuned.

Brothers & Sisters is still hanging on to the bottom of the “toss up” range between renewal and cancellation. ABC’s new Mr. Sunshine still looks like a toss up for renewal. Even off the air, V continues to edge closer to the “toss up” range as the rest of ABC’s scripted show ratings slide.

Off the Map, Detroit 1-8-7 and No Ordinary Family are certain to be cancelled at the end of the season.

I’d expect the apocalypse before I’d expect Desperate Housewives to not be renewed.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – April 3, 2011):

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ABC’s last rookie drama hope of the season, Body of Proof premiered well with a 3.1 adults 18-49 rating, but fell to a 2.0 rating following Desperate Housewives on Sunday. Those two results are divergent enough and the comparison apples to oranges enough to make the handicapping difficult today. The next few weeks of ratings results will tell the tale, but for now the show’s looking more likely to be renewed than cancelled.

Brothers & Sisters is still hanging on to the bottom of the “toss up” range between renewal and cancellation. ABC’s new Mr. Sunshine still looks like a toss up for renewal. V is just outside of the “toss up” range.

Better With You is more likely to be cancelled than renewed. What? Why? It’s average is much higher than its latest ratings, and its latest ratings are in the “likely to be cancelled” range.

Off the Map, Detroit 1-8-7 and No Ordinary Family are certain to be cancelled at the end of the season.

I’d expect the apocalypse before I’d expect Desperate Housewives to not be renewed. Lots of fans comments that ABC is scheduling DH to depress its ratings as some sort of bargaining tactic with the stars over their salaries. That’s just so much nonsense.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-March 27, 2011):

–Brothers & Sisters is still hanging on to the bottom of the “toss up” range between renewal and cancellation. ABC’s new Mr. Sunshine still looks like a toss up for renewal. V is just outside of the “toss up” range.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-March 20, 2011):

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It’s hardly the most original of headlines, and I could have written this post anytime in the last several weeks, but it’s clear that far from being the new hit drama ABC so desperately needs, Off The Map isn’t even going to make it to a second season and will be cancelled after it finishes its run this season. ABC’s last chance for a rookie drama survivor this season is Body of Proof, premiering next Tuesday.

Brothers & Sisters is still hanging on to the bottom of the “toss up” range between renewal and cancellation. ABC’s new Mr. Sunshine still looks like a toss up for renewal.

V and Better With You are both more likely to be cancelled than renewed.

Detroit 1-8-7 and No Ordinary Family are certain to be cancelled at the end of the season.

I’d expect the apocalypse before I’d expect Desperate Housewives to not be renewed.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-March 13, 2011):

This spring, with V averaging an even lower 1.9 rating, is no longer one of ABC’s rookies, and ABC has a new entertainment president not tied to the decisions of the past, it’s unlikely that V catches whatever break it caught last season. The Visitors should have their bags packed.

Which drama might get the face saving “We didn’t cancel ALL our rookie dramas” renewal this season? Maybe none, but the only ones still in the running are Off The Map (unlikely), or the upcoming Body Of Proof (not yet aired).

Brothers & Sisters is hanging on to the bottom of the “toss up” range between renewal and cancellation.

ABC’s new Mr. Sunshine still looks like a toss up for renewal, but Better With You will need to catch a big break to escape cancellation.

Detroit 1-8-7 and No Ordinary Family are certain to be cancelled at the end of the season. Off The Map is more likely to be cancelled than renewed.

I’d expect the apocalypse before I’d expect Desperate Housewives to not be renewed.

ABC’s last chance for a hit drama this season looks to be Body of Proof, premiering in March.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-March 6, 2011):

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Two weeks ago, the ratings for Brothers & Sisters put it out of the “toss up” range and into the “more likely to be cancelled than renewed” range. Two weeks of slight ratings improvement, and it’s back at the bottom end of the “toss up” range. Such is the ebb and flow of ratings and the future prospects they dictate. B&S is likely to ride that toss up/more likely to be cancelled range until we get the final word, no later than mid-May.

ABC’s new Mr. Sunshine will certainly get the nod over Better With You in an either/or situation, it’s at the top of the toss up range with its recent ratings, and BWY is well below it.

Detroit 1-8-7 and No Ordinary Family are certain to be cancelled at the end of the season. Both V and Off The Map are more likely to be cancelled than renewed.

I’d expect the apocalypse before I’d expect Desperate Housewives to not be renewed.

ABC’s last chance for a hit drama this season looks to be Body of Proof, premiering in March.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.