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Is There Anything Dumber than MLB Draft Instant Analysis?

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June 8, 2012

June 8, 2012
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It’s stupid when people try to pick winners and losers from the NBA and NFL drafts, and those players will be in camp and on the team from day one. It’s even stupider when people try to analyze the MLB Draft, which has 40-plus rounds and contains players who probably sniff the big leagues for another three years, at least.

Guys don’t just get drafted and come up to the majors in baseball, unless you’re Bryce Harper or Stephen Strasburg. It doesn’t happen. When somebody like Keith Law tries to tell me that the Red Sox drafted their shortstop of the future, I want to slap him in the face for being a hack. For all Law knows, that “shortstop of the future” could hit .220 over the next four seasons in the minors, never really pan out and make a career for himself as a locksmith’s apprentice.

It’s just such nonsense. As much as we don’t know anything about the other sports, we really don’t know anything about baseball prospects. There are the rare can’t miss guys, and then there is everybody else. Oh, the Sox took a guy in the 12th round? Well that means no more than if they had taken that guy in the 20th round. People succeed from every round in the baseball draft – that’s why there are so many of them.

To act like we have any idea how these 18-21 year old kids are going to pan out when they have about nine levels of minor league ball to fight through is preposterous. The first overall pick was some 17-year-old named Carlos Correa from Puerto Rico. Does anyone have any idea if that guy is literally ever going to even play in the big leagues? Of course not! Daniel Nava plays in the big leagues, for Christ’s sake, and Rocco Baldelli is out of baseball!

I feel like I could write an MLB draft analysis column – and I don’t even really watch college baseball – and provide as much insight as someone like Law. Oh, the Yankees drafted a third baseman somewhere in the first 10 rounds, as one of their 53 picks over that span? Perfect. “So and so is projected a work in progress at the plate who could develop power over time. The Yankees love his defense and potentially see him as the third baseman of the future.”

Look at that! I’m a scout! Somebody sign me up! Or, just shoot me an email and I’ll personally come down to your hometown and tell you how your kid of any age projects at the next level for a nominal fee. You think little Johnny has a chance to be the centerfielder for the Astros in 2030? Well let me see…he runs well, but he’s going to have to work on his arm strength. I see that he can’t quite hit the ball off the tee yet, but with a swing like his, it’s only a matter of time before he starts driving it into the gaps. I could definitely see him becoming a 30-30 guy in the bigs, if everything stays the course.

Of the first 32 picks in the 2010 draft, I’ve heard of exactly three of them: Bryce Harper, Drew Pomeranz and Chris Sale. That means the other 29 are still trying to figure it out. The No. 1 pitching prospect in all of baseball heading into last season was eighth round pick Matt Moore of the Rays. I wonder if Keith Law projected him to be an ace, or just saw him as a guy with “plus-fastball who could be a middle-of-the-rotation guy in a few years if he works on his command.”

Hey Keith – if I added 20 miles per hour to my fastball, worked on my command, added a curveball and wasn’t an overall bad pitcher, how do you think I would project?