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Consumer inflation data is a focal point for the Federal Reserve and the capital markets. Accordingly, market participants will be keeping a close eye on the release of the November Consumer Price Index on Wednesday.

Consumer Price Index for November (Wednesday, December 12, at 8:30 a.m. ET)

Why it's important

The Federal Reserve keys off the PCE Price Index in discerning inflation trends, yet the market still reacts to the CPI data as a potential driver of monetary policy.

The PCE Price Index was up 2.0% year/year in October, unchanged from September, while the core PCE Price Index was up 1.8%, versus 1.9% in September.

Federal Reserve officials are watching inflation trends and inflation expectations carefully to help dictate the course of their monetary policy.

According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, there is a 76.6% probability of a rate hike at the December FOMC meeting.

Consumer inflation provides some insight on economic potential given the spending activity that flows out of real income (i.e. adjusted for inflation).

Consumer inflation trends in the U.S. have global implications as foreign markets move to adjust for the impact of inflation, or lack thereof, on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the U.S. consumer's spending power.

Market participants recognize headline inflation should see some relief from the plunge in crude prices, so there is great interest in seeing what core inflation, which excludes food and energy, will look like.

Inflation trends help drive long-term interest rates, which have been moving up this year and have created some disruption for the stock market.

A closer look

For the 12-month period ending in October, the all items index was up 2.5% before seasonal adjustment versus 2.3% in September.

For the 12-month period ending in October, the index for all items, excluding food and energy (i.e. core CPI), was up 2.1%, versus 2.2% in September.

The Numbers:

Wed., Dec. 12

Time of Release

Briefing.com Consensus

Prior

CPI

8:30 ET

0.0%

0.3%

Core CPI

8:30 ET

0.2%

0.2%

What's in play?

Treasuries

Government Bond ETFs

1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY)

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF)

iShares 3-7 year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI)

20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF (SCHO)

Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF)

ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT)

Currencies

USD/JPY

EUR/USD

PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP)

PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish ETF (UDN)

Index ETFs

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)

iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)

S&P futures

Fed funds futures

Consumer inflation data is a focal point for the Federal Reserve and the capital markets. Accordingly, market participants will be keeping a close