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So there are literally 10-13 other teams in the National League that would love nothing more than to have Mike Leake on their team as he would improve all but two rotations in the league.

If Mike Leake is the guy that people are complaining about, Reds fans have gotten spoiled and too quickly forgotten who the Reds' 'ace' was during the previous 10 years. Leake would have been the Reds' best pitcher in some of those years, or very close to it. He's essentially a league average pitcher pitching as the fifth starter and that's not good enough? Yikes.

And for good measure, I expanded that stat to the AL where we find:

68, 77, 68, 61, 92, 71, 73, 55, 80, 103, 84, 95, 89, 74

So Leake was better than 25 of the other 29 fifth starters in the league this year, and some by a great deal. And the thing is, his peripherals were better than his actual ERA, which this is based on, so one should expect at least marginal improvement next season (his HR/FB rate will almost assuredly improve).

But a guy who is league average at the fifth spot, who can also field his position, hit and run the bases isn't good enough? I really can't fathom what it is exactly people expect.

If the Reds want to move Chapman to the rotation and trade Bailey or Leake, I'm OK with that. In fact, that's been my preference. But I don't *want* to trade either guy. If either is traded, I actually want to trade Bailey because I think he has a higher trade value at the moment and I don't think he's that much better than Leake (unless he replicates the last few games going forward, but I am skeptical of that).

Either way, if Mike Leake is the worst thing people have to worry about in the rotation, then I surmise it's not prudent to want to make changes to the rotation unless it's because Chapman is getting moved there.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: Offseason Priorities

If Walt was able to flip Leake in a deal for a legitimate OF upgrade he would be my hero.

"Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

Re: Offseason Priorities

He's one arm injury away from being the #4 starter, where I'm sure his numbers compare less favorably.

You can never have too much starting pitching. Never settle for mediocrity anywhere in the rotation when you can have better.

His park-adjusted ERA is just a hair under league average, which includes all starters. So being a 4th starter is still pretty suitable to his talents.

The Reds don't need another starting pitcher. They had the best ERA in baseball this year. You're trying to insinuate there's a problem where none exists. That's not "settling" but rather recognition of a club strength. Naturally any team that has to use its 5th starter in the playoffs might have a drop-off. But clubs shouldn't invest extra resources into a 5th starter they don't have on that premise alone.

In this case, it just so happens the Reds do have a natural upgrade (Chapman) if they elect to pursue it. And I hope they do because Chapman could be a game-changer. That said, if they elect to keep Chapman in the pen, there's no reason to invest resources through trade or free agency to a position where there are no actual weaknesses. And no, I do not consider a league-average pitcher as a 5th starter to be a weakness.

Last edited by Brutus; 10-14-2012 at 02:16 AM.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: Offseason Priorities

He's one arm injury away from being the #4 starter, where I'm sure his numbers compare less favorably.

You can never have too much starting pitching. Never settle for mediocrity anywhere in the rotation when you can have better.

I don't think we have the luxury as a mid market team to sign another pitcher and stash away Mike Leake as insurance. We have one of the best staffs in baseball. Just be glad Luke Hudson isn't being rushed out there every five days.

Re: Offseason Priorities

2. Do they sell high on some guys who had good seasons, such as Bailey? Chapman? 2 guys who often have arm fatigue but survived this season intact.

3. How long will it take Hamilton to get to the major leagues or will he? Will he succeed or flop at the major league level?

4. Short term fix or long term fix in CF? And how do you acquire someone? What are the options?

5. Are you okay with Frazier at 3B? Or do you want an upgrade?

6. Are you okay with Ludwick in LF? Or do you want an upgrade?

7. Chapman, rotation or Closer? Cingrani......is he a starter option or bullpen option?

Lots of questions. I hope they don't stand pat this offseason. Already have a postseason team. Let's improve it to make it a leading contender.

My answers:
1. Yes. Replace Jacoby. It certainly can't hurt after watching this team struggle in the postseason.
2. I could see Walt trying to upgrade the starting rotation, even with how good it was. I was really impressed with Bailey the last month or so. And he stayed healthy all season, but will he in the future? He has been fragile in the past. Sell high on him now? He's up for a contract soon. Can they afford him? I'm 50/50 on trading him. They could consider Chapman for the rotation. And Hoover spent more than 50% of his time in the Braves minors as a starter, while never having an e.r.a. over 3.50. And Cingrani and Corcino are on the cusp. And Chapman has the often arm fatigue thingie. Trade him before he become damaged goods? Hmmmm.

3. I'm really excited about Billy Hamilton, but I'm afraid I'm expecting too much of him as a major leaguer.

4. I guess they have to do a short term fix in CF/leadoff if they believe Hamilton is going to deliver in the future. Cheap trade for Dejesus might work. Or a trade for Soo if you think Bruce can handle CF, which most people don't.

5. Frazier's late season slump concerns me. Has the scouting report finally caught up to him or just late season fatigue/slump? I might consider upgrading 3B if the right offer came along. With the usual injuries during the season, it's not like Frazier wouldn't still get to play alot at some position if he remained a utility/backup type player.

6. I'd like them to pursue a better option than Ludwick for awhile and if it doesn't happen, try and re-sign him. I'm concerned about getting Votto more pitches to hit and he needs someone better than Ludwick hitting behind him.

7. I see alot of options and directions they could go with the starting rotation. But only to improve it. Bailey coming due for a big contract. Latos due down the road. Can they afford all these guys? Sell high on Bailey? Sell high on Chapman? Hoover, Cingrani, Corcino in the wings? My answer. I'd be patient and stand pat unless a true upgrade fell into their laps via trade offer. Another season should only see improvement from Bailey, Chapman, etc. And if someone in the rotation goes down for awhile next season, you get to audition potential replacements then. And Cingrani and Corcino will certainly be in triple A next year showing you what they got. Alot of answers should start to come forth in 2013. Hopefully guys continue to stay healthy.

"I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

"Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

Re: Offseason Priorities

I have no idea of how he plays CF but what are people's thoughts on trading for Parra from Arizona? He's young, supposedly available, plays a great LF and has the top of the order OBP chops we need.

Any merit to the idea?

He's one of my top targets. The D-Backs are supposedly interested in Gregorious as a SS of the future candidate. Maybe something like Did and Arredondo for Parra could work. Arredodno would give them an arm for the middle of the pen and would balance the money a bit. I'd prefer not to deal Didi, but I think he's the team's top trade possibility. Parra would add a lefty bat who can contribute against RHP and could platoon with Stubbs or Heisey with the other dealt away.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

Re: Offseason Priorities

I have not read this entire thread so I apologize if this has already been discussed but how soon could Billy Hamilton be prepared to take over as the full time CF? Could he be the guy by the All Star break? I think the easiest way and probably quickest way to help this offense is find guys capable of getting on base in front of Votto. And if Hamilton can be that guy sooner rather than later we can use resources like Gregorious to help fill other areas of weakness.

Re: Offseason Priorities

Originally Posted by kbrake

I have not read this entire thread so I apologize if this has already been discussed but how soon could Billy Hamilton be prepared to take over as the full time CF? Could he be the guy by the All Star break? I think the easiest way and probably quickest way to help this offense is find guys capable of getting on base in front of Votto. And if Hamilton can be that guy sooner rather than later we can use resources like Gregorious to help fill other areas of weakness.

I think that is one of the key questions of the off-season and performance in the AFL may dictate which way the Reds go. I'd love to see Hamilton on opening day with one of Heisey or Stubbs as a fall back and the other shipped off for something else. If that was possible, I'd keep Didi. After CF, SS and 3B look like the 2 biggest questions to me. A Lefty hitting IF who can handle SS and provide an alternative to Frazier and especially Cozart would be very valuable. IMO, SS would be more productive on offense and defense with a tandem of Didi and Cozart than it would with either player by himself. It would also be an option (not a great one) if Frazier's late season troubles carry over into 2013.

If Hamilton looks like he's farther away than June, I think the team needs to make a move of some type. The Stubbs/Heisey combo needs to be upgraded. IMO, that involves a LH bat who can play CF added to the mix with one of those players moved out to make room

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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