We knew the Washington Capitals wouldn’t coast to another Presidents’ Trophy. We knew that this regular season would be a greater challenge than in seasons past. Some of us even thought that was perhaps for the best. (It is not.) But with the Caps barely above .500 one month into the season, there is increased chatter about Barry Trotz being on the proverbial hot seat.

While Trotz is making some confounding choices in lineup and deployment, those choices follow the same pattern that has led him to four very successful seasons as head coach: deliberate game pace, limited usage of young players, high leveraging of veterans. The difference between previous seasons and now is simple: the Caps roster is not as good as it used to be. Trotz’s decisions certainly exacerbate the problem, but it’s obvious that he has not been given the ingredients to win big this year.

In this week’s snapshot, we examine our ingredients to see which are making the pizza so bad that we need to drench it in garlic butter just to mask the taste.

Being in the bottom third in almost every even-strength stat and second place in the least reliable stat means – and I’ll put this as bluntly as I can – the Caps are not going to make the playoffs. But there are reasons to hope for improvement: a world-class goalie, injuries to Niskanen and Burakovsky, the toughness of the schedule so far, a penalty kill that should progress based on underlying numbers, and the alluring possibility that a small sample size is distorting the data. We’ll have a lot more on this topic once we hit the twenty-game threshold, but for now I’ll say that I am pessimistic about the team as it currently stands.

The Caps have 12 games remaining this month with only four on the road. Their opponents include some of the league’s dregs – Buffalo, Arizona, Colorado – but also the reigning Stanley Cup champions (Pittsburgh), the best player in the world’s team (Edmonton), and the most offensively potent team in the league (Toronto). I expect improvement by Thanksgiving, but maybe not a lot.

Now here’s where stuff gets wacky. When that supposed top line plays with the team’s supposed top defensive pairing (John Carlson and Brooks Orpik), the Caps take just one shot attempt in five (21.4 SA%). Granted, that’s only been 15 minutes of play and 42 total shot attempts by either team, but that’s still a disaster. In Ovi-Kuzy-DSP’s defense, they are on the right side of 50 percent when they’re lucky enough not to be deployed with Orpik and Carlson.

And that’s pretty much true for everyone. Above is an impromptu visualization of how Caps forwards (at left) have done when out with certain defensemen (at top), color-coded (green is good, red is bad) for your convenience.Turns out that only the Backstrom line gets good results with Orpik-Carlson, and everyone is a mess when on the ice with Taylor Chorney. But Dmitry Orlov’s been solid, Christian Djoos has been a genuine delight, and Madison Bowey has shown real potential since separating from Orpik (44.1 SA% together, 51.3 SA% for Bowey apart from Orpik). That’s super important. It suggests that the Caps’ young talent is viable, and that it is the holdovers (Orpik and Chorney particularly) that are dragging the rest down.

Brooks Orpik‘s increased ice time in his age-37 year is one reason for his dreary numbers, but it’s not the only one. Orpik is also starting a bigger share of his shifts in the defensive zone (35 percent, up from 28 percent), he’s facing tougher competition by every metric (average offense, defense ice time, etc.). If MacLellan and Trotz’s intention was to use Orpik to bring stability to a younger Caps defensive corps, the precise opposite is occurring.

Another stark disappointment has been Brett Connolly, who had a terrible start to his season (37.7 SA%) even before suffering a concussion last week. With the third line clicking in its current incarnation, perhaps Connolly can help out the flagging fourth line. (I hope Matt Niskanen, upon his own return from injury, has a similar rebirth.)

Speaking of: Matt Niskanen‘s injury (he’s missed nine games now) is important. For Barry Trotz, the injury is an excuse for a mediocre October and all the unfortunate-but-necessary lineup decisions (such as Orpik’s increased role). For Brian MacLellan, the injury exposes how thin his blue line became after losing Karl Alzner, Nate Schmidt, and Kevin Shattenkirk over the summer (and thereby losing whatever fungibility there was in the last year of John Carlson’s contract.) Whatever happens or does not happen, Niskanen will be used as either an explanation or excuse.

That third line currently includes Chandler Stephenson, who is playing quite well but is enjoying outsized luck (125.4 PDO, the sum of on-ice shooting and saving percentages). He’s been on the ice for 35 opponent shots but zero opponent goals. He’s been on the ice for 27 Caps shots and 6 Caps goals. That can’t last long.

Let’s not let Jay Beagle escape our notice. Beagle’s playing slightly fewer minutes against slightly lesser opponents this season, but his numbers are tumbling anyway. He’s always pulled up the rear in the shot-attempt stack ranking, but his 44.2 percent of attempts and 40.9 percent of expected goals is extraordinarily execrable, even in Jay’s workaday role. Beagle’s never been a possession stud, but his bad numbers have been tolerable because of low minutes and tough competition. It may not stay tolerable for long.

Not included in the snapshot are Anthony Peluso, Liam O’Brien, and Tyler Graovac – none of whom have been outstanding in their limited ice time. The same can’t be said of Nathan Walker (58.9 percent of shot attempts, 78.9 percent of goals in under 50 minutes of 5-on-5 play), whose absence from gameday rosters remains baffling.

Up near the top of the lineup, it behooves us to note that Nick Backstrom and TJ Oshie are playing excellently even when they’re playing with John Carlson and Brooks Orpik. They really struggle only when out with Taylor Chorney (just 18 minutes so far), which isn’t unreasonable.

One reason why analysts like Andre Burakovsky is his individual shot rate. Burakovsky attempts shots at a rate higher than a lot of comparable players and near the best among Caps players who aren’t the founding member of Putin Team. Before his injury, Burakovsky’s rate dropped only a little (14.3 attempts per 60 minutes, down from 15.8 last season), but his accuracy dropped a bit further (41.4 of those attempts are on net, down from 48.5 last season), as Pat mentioned in the last snapshot. I still think Burakovsky’s got a bright future if he’s given the chance, but I worry for his accuracy particularly given the nature of his last two injuries – to each of his hands.

I’ve got a lot to say about Tom Wilson (58.6 goals-for percentage, 105.4 PDO). It’s way too much for a snapshot bullet, but maybe I’ll tide you over with this: Wilson’s all-situation shooting percentage this season is 13.3 (2 goals on 15 shots). In the rest of his NHL career it has been 6.3 percent. That’s the very concise way of saying what I’ll soon use 1,500 words to say: Two-goal Tom is not a goal scorer and he will never become one.

Glossary

GP. Games played.

TOI. Time on ice. The amount of time that player played during 5v5.

SA%. Shot-attempt percentage, a measurement for puck possession. The share of shot attempts that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.

Rel SA%. The percentage difference of shot attempts the Caps had when the player on the ice as opposed to when the player is on the bench.

GF%. Goals-for percentage. The share of goals that the player’s team got while he was on the ice.

PDO. (A meaningless acronym.) The sum of the player’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goalies’ on-ice save percentage. Above 100 means the player is getting fortunate results that may be reflected in goal%.