Knicks Morning News (Tuesday, Dec 11 2012)

It will not be the first time the Knicks make the short jaunt to Brooklyn, but that does not take away all of the luster from Tuesday’s rematch at Barclays Center. The Nets swiped a 96-89 overtime win on Nov. 26 on their new home court, and the two weeks â?? and six wins in seven games â?? in between haven’t been enough for the Knicks to completely forget not pulling out that historic game against their outer-borough neighbors.

The Knicks have whipped the Heat twice, won rugged road games in San Antonio and Dallas, and are off to their best 20-game start since the 1995-96 season. They have soared 10 games over .500 for the first time since the end of the 2000-01 season, are the NBA’s…

With Rasheed Wallace and Marcus Camby each battling left-foot pain, the time has never been better to start easing in Amar’e Stoudemire.
Stoudemire is closing in on getting cleared to practice fully with the club. He is expected to make his return sometime this month while Iman Shumpert is…

Fifteen days. That’s all it has been. Fifteen days ago it seemed â?? and sounded â?? like we were staring at a genuine basketball revolution. It seemed â?? and sounded â?? like we had officially rebranded ourselves a two-team town, that the Nets and Knicks were on even footing, co-stars in the refurbished…

LaMarcus Aldridge had 30 points and 12 rebounds to lead the Portland Trail Blazers to a 92-74 victory over the Toronto Raptors on Monday night in a game that was overshadowed by injuries for both sides.

O.J. Mayo scored 19 points and the Dallas Mavericks took control with a 31-3 run in the first half to win their 17th straight regular-season home game against Sacramento with a 119-96 victory over the Kings on Monday night.

The Off the Dribble team was interested in learning about Nets fans now that the team is in Brooklyn. Amy Creedon took Jamie Lohr on a five-hour journey to Section 15 so he could see his favorite team.

Stephen Curry put on a show for his hometown fans Monday night, finishing with 27 points, seven assists and seven rebounds to lead the surging Golden State Warriors to a 104-96 win over the struggling Charlotte Bobcats.

53 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Tuesday, Dec 11 2012)”

This is a great time to be a Knick fan. I am going to sit back and enjoy tonight’s game. I hope for a huge dismantling of the Nets, so that the Knicks are the undisputed kings of the East on Christmas Day.

This is a big stretch for us — we have basically 15 straight days without having to leave NYC – 6 home games and tonight’s game at Barclays. No back-to-backs. If we go 5-2 or 6-1 and then are, say, 21-6 going into the Christmas game against the Lake Show – I think we will at the very least put some big distance between us and the rest of the Atlantic division. Already a 3.5 game lead now.

ephus:
This is a great time to be a Knick fan.I am going to sit back and enjoy tonight’s game.I hope for a huge dismantling of the Nets, so that the Knicks are the undisputed kings of the East on Christmas Day.

Agreed on all counts. With Kidd being on the court this time, and with likely no Lopez for the Nets, I expect this to be a totally different game than the first one.

There are 10 games left in 2012, 6 home and 4 away. I think 8-2 is very realistic, allowing for a split of the 2 games with Brooklyn and the 2 with the Lakers. The other 2 road games are Phoenix and Sacramento, very winnable, and all the other home games are against teams near or below .500 (Cavs, Houston, Chicago, Minn.) with revenge motives against Houston and Chicago.

“Harden shot 45 percent on about two isolation shots per game last season, ranking among the league’s 10 most efficient iso scorers, per Synergy Sports. He’s shooting 25 percent this season on twice as many attempts, a good illustration of the difficulties in transitioning to full-time no. 1 option. “

“Harden shot 45 percent on about two isolation shots per game last season, ranking among the league’s 10 most efficient iso scorers, per Synergy Sports. He’s shooting 25 percent this season on twice as many attempts, a good illustration of the difficulties in transitioning to full-time no. 1 option. ”

Nonononono — stats are always the same no matter what context. I don’t want to hear about your outliers even though seemingly 50% of high usage players who change teams have wildly different #s in their new place/context.

“Harden shot 45 percent on about two isolation shots per game last season, ranking among the league’s 10 most efficient iso scorers, per Synergy Sports. He’s shooting 25 percent this season on twice as many attempts, a good illustration of the difficulties in transitioning to full-time no. 1 option. ”

James Harden is a laughably bad isolation player. He’s incredible in the pick and roll or working off the ball in space, but you can’t just give him the ball and ask him to create offense. He would also seriously benefit from not having to go up against the opponent’s best wing defender every night, elite defenders have just made him look crappy.

As far as the Rockets, I’m pretty sure Morey was fully aware that this team wasn’t going to win 50 games, but it is funny that so many statistical models loved the Rockets. Of 4 main guys (Harden, Parsons, Lin, and Asik) Only Parsons had played even half a season’s worth of minutes as a starter, and every single one of those guys underwent drastic changes in their role when moving to the Rockets. Asik went from someone who only shot on putbacks and open dunks to someone who is being asked to run the pick and roll all the time. Lin went from undisputed top option on a team perfectly designed to run point guard pick and rolls to an off the ball player on a team with bigs who can’t catch a pass on the move consistently. Harden went from a third option coming off the bench next to 2 elite shot creators to the only good option on a mediocre team where he is getting full attention from the defense. Parsons is the only one who kept the same role and he’s the only player who’s stats have actually improved since last year, even though you would expect young players like Asik, Harden, and Lin to improve, not get worse.

I’d like to point out that Harden increased his FGA/48 by 40% while seeing a 15% reduction in PPS. He’s still loads more efficient than the average SG, and if he reduces his turnover rate, he’ll return to his status as an elite player. As it stands, he’s still a fantastic SG in a SG-weak league.

Hell, at a usage that high, only seven players can even muster a league average (.532) TS% (add Melo, Pierce and Wade to the list – http://bkref.com/tiny/IM8c0).

Of those players, do you know how many are averaging at least 5 assists/36?

Just LeBron and Harden.

It’s bizarre to me that so many people on this site insist that Harden’s play so far with the Rockets has “exposed” him as anything other than an elite scorer/legit #1 option/max-contract value player.

Hell, at a usage that high, only seven players can even muster a league average (.532) TS% (add Melo, Pierce and Wade to the list – http://bkref.com/tiny/IM8c0).

Of those players, do you know how many are averaging at least 5 assists/36?

Just LeBron and Harden.

It’s bizarre to me that so many people on this site insist that Harden’s play so far with the Rockets has “exposed” him as anything other than an elite scorer/legit #1 option/max-contract value player.

Oh yeah, and of all the players listed, Harden is the youngest and his supporting cast is BY FAR the worst.

Hardly “total feast or famine”, and in any case, some variation should probably be expected from a player so young, playing as the #1 option for the 1st time, on a roster filled with shit players or role players (or both!). Every other player I’ve mentioned has other all-NBA and/or surefire Hall of Famers playing with them. Harden has nothing even remotely close.

15 of Melo’s 18 games are between 11-30, that’s the reliability you want from your high usage superstar (admittedly without any spectacular statistical games thus far). only 6 of Harden’s 19 games are between 11-30, hence total feast or famine.

Nick C.:
Ah the joys of reading the board as posters look to use data and other arguments to reinforce their pre-existing beliefs and then post endlessly on it. (not you guys specifically just the concept)

Of course I can’t make up my mind which of you is “righter”. lol

averages can be deceptive in some cases, reliability is better for a main usage player. a wide variance like Harden has thus far is better for a sixth man type like JR Smith, where if he’s off, the coach can just sit him (not that Woodson usually does).

Hell, at a usage that high, only seven players can even muster a league average (.532) TS% (add Melo, Pierce and Wade to the list – http://bkref.com/tiny/IM8c0).

It’s bizarre to me that so many people on this site insist that Harden’s play so far with the Rockets has “exposed” him as anything other than an elite scorer/legit #1 option/max-contract value player.

No the argument is that he’s a max player but not that he was the Thunder’s best player last year or that he was going to simply continue to put up a 67 TS% as a main option. You’re also just kind of glossing over the fact that Harden’s turnovers have gone quite a bit, lowering his efficiency even more since last year. Furthermore, he’s by far the worst defender out of all of those guys. Melo at his worst is about what Harden gives you on average.

Jon is also right about Harden being kind of all or nothing. He has an incredible 30+ point game on like a 70 TS% then follows it up with a game where he was more turnovers than field goals made. Out of his last 10 games, Harden has had a TS% of under 50% in 4 games. Not a lovely ratio, especially since he had more turnovers than made field goals in 3 of those games. You would hope your star doesn’t switch from amazing to pathetic from game to game, and it makes his average pretty misleading. He’s had 3 games the entire year within roughly 5% of his 58% average TS%. Kobe has had 9 games within 5% of his 61 TS%. Melo has had 10 games within 5% of his 57 TS%

Juany8: No the argument is that he’s a max player but not that he was the Thunder’s best player last year or that he was going to simply continue to put up a 67 TS% as a main option. You’re also just kind of glossing over the fact that Harden’s turnovers have gone quite a bit, lowering his efficiency even more since last year. Furthermore, he’s by far the worst defender out of all of those guys. Melo at his worst is about what Harden gives you on average.

Jon is also right about Harden being kind of all or nothing. He has an incredible 30+ point game on like a 70 TS% then follows it up with a game where he was more turnovers than field goals made. Out of his last 10 games, Harden has had a TS% of under 50% in 4 games. Not a lovely ratio, especially since he had more turnovers than made field goals in 3 of those games. You would hope your star doesn’t switch from amazing to pathetic from game to game, and it makes his average pretty misleading. He’s had 3 games the entire year within roughly 5% of his 58% average TS%. Kobe has had 9 games within 5% of his 61 TS%. Melo has had 10 games within 5% of his 57 TS%

The “he’ll remain at .670 TS% as the main option” bullshit is just an absurd straw man. Only two players in NBA history have ever cracked .650 TS% on a usage above 28% (Andrian Dantley and Amar’e Stoudemire). I don’t even think THCJ is delusional enough to have suggested that.

What was clear last year with his shockingly good scoring effeciency and (eye test!) obvious talent, and what has been proven true this year, is that James Harden is absolutely good enough to be the #1 scoring option and max level player on an NBA team. (cont.)

Indeed, not a single other player who isn’t playing with other all-stars or HOF-caliber players can come close to putting up the numbers he has, and nit-picking over standard deviations (when we’re talking about a 20-game sample, from a 23-year old player who has JUST taken on this new, more difficult role) is ridiculous. Does he have good games and bad? Of course, he is the sun, moon and stars of the Houston offense and, as you have pointed out, is far and away the focus of every team’s defensive game plan. Is his defense spectacular? Nope, and neither was Carmelo’s until, what, this year, his 9th in the league?

Not only does James Harden’s season speak VERY well for his continued excellence given his expected improvement over seasons to come and the (hopeful) addition of better talent to Houston’ roster, his play RIGHT NOW is putting him in the upper echelon of NBA scorers, right up there with (if not *quite* equal to) the other elite wings of the league.

In light of the fact that that we’re comparing a 23 year-old who just played his first 20 games as a team’s first option with a 5-time All-star like Melo who is in his 9th season as being a team’s first option, and you guys have to split hairs over the standard deviations in their game scores so far in order to argue that Harden isn’t on that level… speaks pretty damn well for Harden.

Totally agreed. I don’t really know how many players have different production when they move teams/contexts. Well, make that “didn’t know”.

So I took a few minutes and did the following analysis. I went to the NBA transaction website and took note of every significant player move this past offseason (significance determined solely by me, but I think it’s a reasonable list). Then I compared their WP48 so far this season (~25% of season played) to their 2 year average WP48 (weighted by minutes). So here goes. For reference:

A difference in WP48 of 0.05 = difference between the prototypical “average” WP48 player like Andres Biedrins (WP48 0.100) and Al Horford (0.155).

A difference in WP48 of 0.075 = difference between an average PG like Devin Harris (0.095) and Tony Parker (0.171)

A difference in WP48 of 0.100 = difference between Kobe Bryant (0.193) and Jamal Crawford (0.094).

OK so my analysis of my analysis:
Players are FAR more likely to have greatly differing production as measured by WP48 when they change teams than they are to continue their previous production. Out of the 20 players listed, only 6 had production within a WP48 of 0.050 of their previous 2 year average. Out of the 20 players, some were better and some were worse on their new team (10 were +, 10 were (-)).

WP48 in the 2 year pre-trade samples were reasonably consistent with some obvious exceptions (Blatche).

Obviously the post-trade sample size is small, and guys like OJ Mayo and Jason Kidd won’t keep shooting 90% from 3 point range. Dwight Howard supposedly is still injured. But this whole thing where players don’t change productions when they change teams? Where did that come from? Is there any evidence of that?

The Honorable Cock Jowles:
I’d like to point out that Harden increased his FGA/48 by 40% while seeing a 15% reduction in PPS. He’s still loads more efficient than the average SG, and if he reduces his turnover rate, he’ll return to his status as an elite player. As it stands, he’s still a fantastic SG in a SG-weak league.

And yet Carmelo Anthony has a higher points per possession and he has nothing to do with Knicks success according to you.

flossy: Oh yeah, and of all the players listed, Harden is the youngest and his supporting cast is BY FAR the worst.

You are off script here Flossy. Supporting cast does not matter.

While there are certain limitations in Hardens game as a No.1 that Durant, Bryant, Melo and James don’t have that limits his ability to impact a game when teams change strategy, Harden will probably go down as the best screen and roll scoring guard of all time.

Hes so good at it he has to be a No.1, even if his inability to do much else in the half-court.

Melo, for example, has really high ppp in isolation, post-ups, pick and rollballhandler, and spot-ups. To me, you want a No. 1 who can score Ina variety of ways depending on what the defense will give.

That’s probably the biggest reason Melo is so much more consistent than Harden, though I don’t think there is anyone in the league better at one shot creation play than Harden in PnR, and that has a ton of value.

Frank: Sample size is definitely too small, but why do you think only 6 out of 20 had WP48 even in the same neighborhood as they did pre-trade?
That sort of tells me context matters. Teammates matter. System matters.
I’ll keep an eye on this throughout the year, and maybe add in other all-in-one metrics as well.

Yep, i want to point out that PER, for all its flaws, has been constant for James Harden and Kevin Martin from last season to this one.

It tells us that Harden is still a star and Kevin Martin is still a very good player. Meanwhile, WP48 thinks Harden is doing poorly and Kevin Martin suddenly has improved its game at the age of 29.

So if you want to predict how a players is going to adapt to your team, it seems that PER accounts for a wider change of roles than WP48.

ruruland: You are off script here Flossy. Supporting cast does not matter.

I don’t know what you’re trying to say or if you even agree/disagree with me, but please don’t lump me in with the dogmatic Berri acolytes who disavow any interaction effects. I have plenty of opinions of my own without having to defend what THCJ claims or defend ludicrous straw man arguments like Harden’s TS% wouldn’t change *at all* regardless of his role.

The ultimate point is that Harden’s performance so far this season, if it demonstrates anything, should put firmly to rest any questions about whether he’s fit to be a team’s #1 scorer. Whether or not he’s quite on Melo’s level (and again, one is a 23 year-old in a new role and the other is a finished product in his prime), the fact that this is even a conversation should put to rest any doubts about whether Harden is an elite scoring guard or worthy of a max deal. He very obviously is, and will be for a long time. The people who trawl every Rockets box score looking to find evidence of Harden being “exposed” or who claim that a mix of good and bad games in a sample size of 20 means anything are kidding themselves. Kid’s 23, he’s averaging 23 and 5 per 36 with excellent efficiency on a team where nobody has to defend anyone but him. There’s really no argument here.

For what it’s worth, I don’t consider pointing out that a guy is wildly erratic to be “nitpicking.”Being able to deliver night in and night out is a big factor in a guy’s “value.”

Hell yes it’s nitpicking, are you kidding? Harden’s played 20 games in a new role at the age of 23 on a team with a shit supporting cast, and these arbitrary game score cut-offs are really supposed to be damning? Not only is he in a situation where a high degree of variance could be expected, but I’m not going to sit here an pretend like the difference between game scores of 9 and 11 or 18 and 21 or whatever are that meaningful when you’re taking a bigger picture view of what is, by anyone’s standards and under any circumstances, an excellent season so far.

ruruland:
Except, I think you’re understating the guys around him a bit.

Parsons is a stud. The other guys aren’t totally atrocious, especially if Lin found his shot. 120 last night in regulation without Harden.

Eh, Parson’s is basically a league average SF if you ask me. Lin has played like hot garbage, Asik is a defensive beast but is pretty incompetent offensively (especially in PnR, which as you note is Harden’s bread and butter) and the less said about the rest of their roster, the better. Toney Douglas might actually be one of their better players, which tells you about as much as you need to know. And as we all remember, the Knicks hung a 20 point loss on the Heat without Melo, so I’m not putting too much stock in last night’s game against SA (though it would be nice if Jeremy Lin returned from the dead).

Yeah, offensively Harden is an absolute stud especially given he’s 23. There have only been 37 individual seasons in NBA history in which a player has averaged (per-36) 22pts, 5 assists, and TS 57, and there isn’t any player on that list that wasn’t a great great player:

ruruland:
Except, I think you’re understating the guys around him a bit.

Parsons is a stud. The other guys aren’t totally atrocious, especially if Lin found his shot. 120 last night in regulation without Harden.

I wouldn’t say stud but maybe a semi-stud in the making. He has a ways to go but Danny Granger type player I think so. I have followed the guy since H.S. and think he is a nice young piece but needs to shoot better and keep developing his body. He is a late bloomer but improved every year of high school(growth spurt helped) and every year of college.

Flossy, if your argument is that Harden is a very nice offensive player who’s only going to continue to grow and improve then I agree with you. At the same time, while he is getting close in offense to the other top wing scorers in the league, he’s not close to there on defense, and he is the most one dimensional of all the elite scorers with the ball in his hands. Ruru is right, if you trap Harden’s pick and roll and take the ball out of his hands, that’s it for both him and the Houston offense. If Melo’s post ups are fronted hard and it’s difficult to give him the ball in space, there are a lot of other ways he can be effective with the ball in his hands. Harden is just a lot more effective off the ball, your primary option can’t be consistently having games where he has more turnovers than field goal attempts (3 in the last 10 is not a small percentage, 3 in 82 might be too fucking high)

However Flossy, you should understand that when people argue that Harden is being “exposed”, it’s because more than one person on this board (and the general statistics community) has been calling Harden the clear best cut SG in the league, and almost everyone said the Thunder would be noticeably worse after trading Harden for Martin. Instead they’re arguably better, despite getting zero production from 2 lottery picks they got for Harden in the next 2 years (Lamb and Toronto’s pick) and nothing from their very talented first round pick this year (Perry Jones).

So I agree with your assessment of Harden as one of the top scoring wings in the league, but his efficiency from last year did get “exposed” in the sense that it gave very little indication of what would happen this year. Now obviously you understood that it would change, but that actually means you knew Harden would be “exposed” by THCJ/Berri’s definition.

The Honorable Cock Jowles: I don’t disavow interaction effects. I just think they’re much smaller than ruruland and co. would like to think.

You know I’ve never gotten a clear answer from you on this, but what exactly do you think assists are then? When Chris Paul gets an assist, doesn’t that mean he was credited for value when his teammate made a shot? Me and Ruruland are basically saying that the concept of assists are valuable but that the box score measure is a laughably stupid and invalid stat for what it claims to measure. You can’t put a value on assists and then say you think interaction effects are really small. Just like with your positional adjustment, Berri entirely admits that there are heavy interaction effects in basketball, doesn’t understand basketball (or logic really) well enough to realize what he’s admitted to, and then tries to account for those interaction effects in the most childish way possible.

Assists are crap, and the PG-SG-SF-PF-C positional model for basketball responsibilities is crap. For someone who wants to fight against the conventional fan wisdom, you use a lot of data only a casual fan would find meaningful.

Are you saying that you think that he is erratic, but we should not point it out because, on average, he’s been very good? If so, I couldn’t disagree more. Consistency is important. If on the other hand, you are trying to say that he hasn’t been erratic, your manipulation of statistics is, in this particular case, ridiculous. He has been bouncing up and down like a yo-yo. Stars don’t regularly swing between scoring 40 points and scoring in single digits.

johnno: Are you saying that you think that he is erratic, but we should not point it out because, on average, he’s been very good? If so, I couldn’t disagree more. Consistency is important. If on the other hand, you are trying to say that he hasn’t been erratic, your manipulation of statistics is, in this particular case, ridiculous. He has been bouncing up and down like a yo-yo. Stars don’t regularly swing between scoring 40 points and scoring in single digits.

It’s kind of interesting to note that the Rockets are about 2.8 points per 100 possessions better with him on the bench:

10 games above 0.585
4 games against teams above 500
6 games against teams below 500.

So yes Harden has been very bipolar. Either he shooting in elite range or shooting below average to terrible. I guessing its related to dealing with elite Long defenders more, but I’m not going to research that.

Again based on eye test, I don’t believe Harden has elite quickness to crossover or blow by his man. What he does very well is the PNR and then euro step to basket. He also does this in transition also. He does this low to high show the ball move which leads the defender to try to strip the ball. This leads to contact and many foul calls. Both his bad shooting nights and good shooting he seem to be able to get double digit FT attempts. So what happens during his bad shooting night? Obvious you cannot get foul call all the time so he just not finishing at the rim. One thing is for sure he doesn’t stop trying. I believe in OKC game got his shot block like 8 times, but continues to try the same move. To me the question is will he develop a counter move. Does the shoot always have to be at the rim or can he developed some kind of tear drop or pull up in the 3ft – 9ft range.

One other thing he does have ability to find cutter when he does Euro step to the rim. But with the scorer mentality he does look for his own shot majority of the time.

johnno: Are you saying that you think that he is erratic, but we should not point it out because, on average, he’s been very good?If so, I couldn’t disagree more.Consistency is important.If on the other hand, you are trying to say that he hasn’t been erratic, your manipulation of statistics is, in this particular case, ridiculous.He has been bouncing up and down like a yo-yo. Stars don’t regularly swing between scoring 40 points and scoring in single digits.

Agree with this, Harden’s average is literally less meaningful than guys like Kobe and Carmelo who actually tend to play around the level of their average. If someone plays 20 games, scores 2 points in ten games and 18 the other ten, you don’t say he averaged 10 points per game and act like that means anything. Almost half his games have been outright bad in terms of scoring, that doesn’t disappear just because the good games were incredible.

Think this has something to do with the Houston coaches not having any idea how to utilize Lin and Harden properly (why not stagger their minutes?!?!?! Toney Douglas has been ok recently but he was the worst player in the league not too long ago) It would be like if instead of trying to maybe separate Chandler and Amar’e a bit to have an excellent roll man in at all times and to allow them both to play stretches where they are best, Woody decided that Amar’e was ONLY going to play when Melo and Chandler are in the game. And that instead of making Amar’e spot up outside the paint, he was going to stand Chandler outside and hope his mid range game improved over the summer. Fucking mind blowing, not to mention Harden plays so many minutes that On/off numbers just aren’t as meaningful

I think I’m a little lower on Harden than you guys, I think the lack of flexibility in his game makes him miscast as a go-to guy (but an incredible sixth man), not to mention the defensive deficiencies become more apparent in the bigger roll. I know he’s still 23 and new to the role of go-to guy, but that cuts two ways: he has less wear and tear on his body from previous seasons, and the league hasn’t focused on stopping him as a primary option for as long.