Noonan: Downward Pace of Gold & Silver To Slow – Here’s Why

A look at the charts shows that there is no foreseeable change for gold and silver that has not already been covered in previous articles, and certainly elsewhere, and puts an end to all the pronouncements from so-called experts that PMs would be much higher.

The above introductory comments are edited excerpts from an article* by Michael Noonan (edgetraderplus.com) entitled Gold And Silver – For Elites, All The World’s A Stage, Including China And Russia.

While there is no specific pattern developing in the charts for this article to address, we do point out specific activity points in commentary on the following charts as to the likelihood of how price will respond in the near term.

We state, once again, that we do not listen to what others have to say about the market, but instead, watch what the charts [markets] are saying. The charts do not lie…One qualifier, because there are
many who express disdain for charts, and we have no quarrel with inability or ignorance, is that charts are not like a crystal ball that lets one see into the future. Instead, charts reveal developing market activity as shown in the structure of a bar in its high, low, and close, coupled with volume which form patterns, and these patterns often repeat over and over in any market. It will not be the exact same but often sufficient enough to rhyme.

Another important factor before commenting on this week’s charts is that when you are able to identify chart patterns and know how they develop through empirical observation you are able, in effect, create a set of rules that define how you will trade a specific pattern and, as such, you are taking
control over when and how you will participate in a market and not leaving your decision-making to chance or whim. When you start trading on higher probability outcomes only, your odds for successful results increases dramatically, and your risk exposure decreases.

Comments on the monthly chart demonstrate how the market advertises its intent. Very often, you will not know what a market will do until after the fact, even when trading a specific high probability pattern that offers increased odds for a favorable outcome. This is why it is important to have activity confirm your observations prior to making a decision.

We cannot know how December will unfold, nor should we care, but we can extract a few observations that suggests a slowing of the downward pace. The chart observation may not always lead to a trade, and certainly not from a monthly time frame, but there is a context for what may develop that can eventually lead to a trade on a lower time frame.

Both the monthly and weekly charts on gold below are showing an ability for price to hold support.

Gold: Monthly Chart

Gold: Weekly Chart

The wide range bar lower is an immediate message to stay away from the long side until more favorable activity develops. It has been our choice not to short gold or silver as a stance against the manipulators who are driving price lower. Were this a different market, there were clear signs of weakness leading up to Friday’s sell-off, and we note them on the chart comments.

Since the strong rally higher in mid-November, price bars began overlapping, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers. When you know that from balance, unbalance will follow, and knowing the trend is down, odds are favorable for a short position based upon established rules of engagement. For example:

Note the poor close (mid-range), 5th bar from the right. The location of the close tells you sellers were present – otherwise the close would have been higher – and confirms how
price is struggling and likely to sell-off.

Look to the left and note the activity at the end of October. Price moved down with ease,
and that area is likely to become resistance.

The next 3 TDs move sideways, the closes are not strong, and the second bar from the end closes dead center of the previous 3 days, a form of balance about to become unhinged.

Gold: Daily Chart

The daily is from where potential trades develop. Given that:

the trend was down,

the price was at defined resistance noted from the end of October and

the poor close for the current week,

any sign of a sell-off should trigger a short entry. This is one way to use developing market activity without having to guess or predict what may happen. Odds for a move lower were clearly favorable.

Silver: Monthly Chart

Keeping observations as simple as possible, until there are signs of a turnaround in price activity, silver will continue to sell off, or move sideways, based on the monthly chart below.

Volume is picking up and price is moving sideways within a clear down trend. There is nothing to suggest a change in direction, but the activity as just described warrants a caution flag for a lower move,even though odds favor more of the same. Again, charts are not a crystal ball, but they do send messages, and we see a potential sign of caution for a move lower, even though there is nothing yet to confirm it.

Silver: Weekly Chart

The comments for caution on the weekly chart may be for naught, but that is not the point. The point is to be aware of how activity appears, and then look for signs to confirm or deny, and this is how one sharpens one’s ability to read market activity.

Silver: Daily Chart

The daily chart below does nothing to support the note of caution from above. It may change in the next few trading days, but that is not important. What matters is there is nothing from which to base a trade decision and, therefore, no reason to waste time trying to imagine one.

Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.

As encouraging as the recent rallies in gold and silver may seem, they are still just rallies within a clearly defined down trend. For trading purposes, there is no reason to be long. For buying and holding physical gold and silver, there are too many reasons not to be long. Plan accordingly. Read More »

Whether it is $5,000 or $10,000 per troy ounce for gold – or $100 or $200 for silver – the current distorted pricing will prevail until there is a clear break of the elite’s central banking dominance over the gold and silver markets. Read More »

Earlier this year we said that 2014 could well be a repeat of 2013 in terms of unrealized expectations for much higher gold & silver price levels and over the ensuing months have continued to advise everyone to stay out of the long side of the paper futures market for as long as the trend continued down. That came from an obvious read of the charts. This article looks at what the gold and silver charts are saying today. Read More »

What has been missing during this 3+ year decline in PMs has been what we have pointed to on several occasions, a form of ending action that sends a message that a change in trend is in progress. Last Thursday and Friday’s sharply higher volume and wide ranges lower is the kind of activity that leads to the end of a trend. There is not enough to say it has happened, to be sure, but the end game is starting to step up and be closer to a resolve of ending of the down trend. [Let me explain further.] Read More »

Have gold and silver seen a bottom yet, and is there a turnaround soon in the cards? No, and no…It is still business as usual as gold and silver languish around recent lows. There is no date one can mark on the calendar that points to an end of the Rothschild dominance over Western fiat currencies and their suppression of … Read More »

No one can outguess the elites’ sustainability of power and control over the entire financial system, including their influence over the price of gold, and, as such, this precludes anyone from being able to intelligibly articulate “when” there will be a transition from “down” to “up” in the price of gold and silver. Unfortunately, as things currently stand, the elites continue to win the majority of the battles, and so control the war. Let me explain why that is the case. Read More »

Things just took a turn for the worst, and there is no turnaround in sight. Unless and until demand enters the picture, price will continue lower until it finds demand sufficient to effect a change. For right now, there is no demand apparent. What else can be said. This is like watching a car teetering on the edge of the cliff, waiting to see if/when it falls. The trend is down, and that is all you need to know! Read More »

Time is running out for all the 2014 enthusiasts that are calling for higher prices in gold and silver by year-end. The lessons learned from 2013 have been forgotten as not only are prices not beginning to move higher, they are making new recent lows. Incredibly enough, many of these prognosticators are paid pretty well by their subscribers. Lesson to be learned? Absolutely no one can divine the future. Stop listening to what others are saying, and pay attention to what the charts are saying – and below is a summary of just that. Read More »

This is one of those times where it is best to focus on pictures of the market, over various time frames, to get a better handle on what to expect moving forward, and a look at the charts tells us in no uncertain terms that the end is not yet in sight. Here is our read of what the market is saying, and has been saying for some time. Read More »

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