Competitive Races Fuel Fundraising in the House, with Democrats Having an Edge

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Democratic challengers running against 24 vulnerable Republicans raised an average of $1.2 million through June 30, according to reports filed in late July with the Federal Election Commission. This is a strong financial position for these challengers at this time of the year, potentially more meaningful than the $2.2 million raised so far by the incumbents against whom they are running. At the same time, Democratic candidates are holding a substantial advantage in fundraising for the 40 open seats races up for election this fall (17 held by Democrats and 23 by Republicans). These numbers suggest that Democrats may be in a strong position to make gains in the general election, but it is too early from the financial records to foresee the 30 seat swing that it would take to change majority party control of the chamber. (See table 1 for data covering 2004-2016 House candidates through June 30th. See table 2 for a list of the main candidates in each of the 37 competitive districts, together with their financial summaries.)

When interpreting what these reports might mean for the political horse race, it is important to remember that the candidates will not be the only spenders in the competitive races. The National Republican Congressional Committee is currently in a stronger financial position than its Democratic counterpart (see CFI’s report on the party committees released 8/10/16.). As in past years, we also expect to see significant spending by non-party organization in these key races.

Challengers and Incumbents

Not since 2008 have there been so few challengers raising money to unseat incumbent candidates, 578 as of June 30th. This is down from 914 in 2010. The drop-off is greater for Republican challengers, who number 288 in 2016, compared to 344 in 2014, 347 in 2012, and 695 in 2010 (when the Republicans were in a minority). With only a few Democratic-held districts considered competitive in 2016, Republican challengers have raised an average of $111,988 through June 30, the lowest figure in 12 years. In comparison, Democratic challengers have reported, on average, $240,669 in total net receipts. This was more than the average Democratic challengers had raised in any year since 2004, and 15% more than in 2014. To put this partisan gap in challenger fundraising into perspective: only one Republican challenger has managed to raise over $1 million in individual contributions (excluding self-financing) compared to 14 Democrats.

As is true in many years, Republican incumbents ($1.3 million) have raised more than Democrats ($1.1 million), but this year the GOP is facing a larger number of serious challenges to their seats. The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report and The Cook Political Report identify 31 competitive Republican held house seats, with seven being open seats, compared to only six competitive Democratic-held seats three of which are for open seats.

Unitemized contributions from donors who gave $200 or less have remained fairly steady, with the percentages in the low teens for challengers and well below 10% for the incumbents. Of the 29 challengers who have reportedly raised more than $100,000 in unitemized contributions, only five were Republicans. The strongest of the small-donor candidates is Timothy Canovas (D-FL), whose insurgent campaign is against the embattled incumbent and former DNC Chair, Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D). Canova, who was endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, reported over $1.7 million in small contributions leading into Florida’s August primary.

Open Seats

Like Democratic challengers, Democrats running for open seats are out-pacing Republican fundraising. On average, Democrats vying for open seats raised $635,418 through June 30, compared to $368,158 for the Republicans. Although Republican fundraising for open seats is consistent with years past (average net receipts 2004-2014: $379,559), this year Democrats running for open seats have almost doubled their historical fundraising figures (average net receipts 2004-2014: $388,499). When isolating fundraising in competitive races for open seats, the fundraising gap between Republicans and Democrats becomes even more exaggerated, with competitive Democrats raising an average of $1 million, while their Republican opponents managed to raise only half that.

Democratic candidates for open seats are also digging into their own pockets at historically high rates, with 34% of total funds coming from candidate contributions and loans, compared to 14% in 2014 and 16% in 2012. However, the Democratic self-funding average is deceptive. David Trone in Maryland’s 8th Congressional Districts spent more than $13 million of his own money in his unsuccessful primary. Republicans are also self-funding at high levels (34%), but this is historically consistent with Republicans running for open seats in past years (32% in 2014 and 29% in 2012).

The Campaign Finance Institute is the nation's pre-eminent think tank for objective, non-partisan research on money in politics in U.S. federal and state elections. CFI's original work is published in scholarly journals as well as in forms regularly used by the media and policy making community. Statements made in its reports do not necessarily reflect the views of CFI's Trustees or financial supporters.