Tuesday, February 28, 2012

I will breakdown each conference and the team’s who I view
as a “lock” right now, who are likely to dance, and who are still alive but
need to do some work (obviously any team that wins their conference tournament
gets a bid, but in this last bucket I am only including team’s whose record/RPI
could still get them an at-large bid if they play well down the stretch).Teams are also listed in the order I view
their seeding or chances of receiving a bid.

America East:
Stony Brook

This
only auto-bid league will likely come down to Stony Brook vs. Vermont in the
conference tournament.The teams split
their regular season meetings with SB winning by 6 at home on Jan 2, but
Vermont crushing SB at home on Feb 12 by 19.

Atlantic Ten:
Temple

Looking
good: St. Louis, Xavier.The
Billikens are a LOCK to go dancing, while Xavier sits very well on the back of
a few quality OOC wins over Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and to a lesser extent
Purdue and Butler.These two teams face
off this week, a win by Xavier would seal their deal for earning a bid.

UMass
was removed from the “need wins” category after going 1-2 the last week and a
half including a 33pt loss @ Dayton on Saturday.I have maintained thru all these editions the
A10 seems like a 3 bid conference, and I still feel that way – perhaps even
moreso in this edition as what also needs to be considered as I mention below
is there will be conference tournament upsets which will remove some of the
projected at-large bids we forecast here.While Joe Lunardi continues displaying outright “homerism” placing St.
Joseph’s in his “last four out” bucket, I do not see any shot barring at least
a run to the A10 Conference Tournament final for them to receive a bid with an
RPI in the mid 60’s, and 11 losses already.The typical absolute cut-off as far as RPI’s and at-large bids is 60,
and with only one game remaining vs. mid 50s RPI St. Bonaventure, I personally
do not see it happening for the Hawks.

ACC: North Carolina

Looking
good: Duke, Florida State, Virginia

Need
wins: Miami (FL), NC State.With an
RPI around #40 and key wins @ Duke and yesterday over Florida State, Miami (FL)
is almost a lock to receive an at-large, barring a very early exit in the ACC
Tournament.NC State was sitting very
nicely as far as at-large bids goes in the second half of a Feb. 16 game @ Duke
– unfortunately for the Pack they blew a 20pt lead in that game, and have not
recovered since losing 4 straight and putting them at risk of missing the
dance.They currently sit with an RPI
around the imaginary cut-off of #60, but they do host Miami (FL) on Wednesday
in an absolute must-win game.In
addition they likely will need a pair of wins (at least) in the ACC Tournament
to receive legit consideration – their bracket will shape up something like
first round match-up vs. BC/GT, second round vs. UVA/Miami, and potential
semi-final vs. FSU/Duke or UNC loser from this week’s game.

Atlantic Sun:
Belmont

This
league will likely be decided between Belmont and Mercer in the A-Sun
Tourney.Belmont won the pair of regular
season match-ups between these schools, but only by a combined 5pts – and with
the understanding it is very tough to beat a team three times in one season,
the potential conference tournament final could be a good one, and a legit spot
where Mercer could steal this conference’s only bid.

Big 12: Kansas

Looking
good: Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State

Need
wins: Kansas State, Texas.Both of
these teams sit very well in the at-large pecking order as far as RPI goes,
hovering around the mid 20s currently.KST can lock up a bid this week if they can sweep their pair of games, @
A&M and hosting OKST.The major
issue with the Wildcats is their conference record that currently sits at 8-8 –
they at least obviously need 9-9 – if they can get there, and pick up a win or
two in the conference tournament, they will earn a bid as they already have
victories over Alabama, Long Beach State, Missouri twice, and Baylor.Texas made their debut in this analysis last
edition, but went 1-2 in their last 3 – their only win an OT win @ a bad Texas
Tech team.The Horns lack a signature
win, and also clearly need to go at least 9-9 in conference play (which would
be 1-1 to close) to have any shot – they have a chance to solve a lot of their
troubles this Saturday if they could win @ Kansas.What may hold Texas back in their 2-7 mark
vs. the other 5 Big 12 teams listed here, only beating Iowa State and Kansas
State at home.

Big East: Syracuse

Looking
good: Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Cincinnati.The Bearcats move up a level to “looking
good” in this edition as with 10+ conference wins, 20+ overall wins, and an RPI
sub 40 I believe they will receive a bid come Selection Sunday.

Need
wins: South Florida, Seton Hall, UConn, West Virginia.Things have cleared themselves up a little
more as far as Big East bids goes, but there is still a lot of work that needs
to be done for these four teams to receive an at-large invite.We did see some sliding amongst these teams
as far as who I see as the most likely to receive a bid as WVU was the “most
likely” in last edition, now they are the “least likely” in my opinion – others
have shifted as well.The first point
that can be made is both West Virginia and UConn will need to win BOTH their
remaining regular season games to have any shot – that would move each to 9-9
in conference play.That feat seems more
likely to be completed by UConn as the Huskies travel to Providence, and host
Pittsburgh – while WVU hosts DePaul but then travels to South Florida in what
will be a massive game for at-large positioning next weekend.Seton Hall only has one regular season game
remaining @ DePaul, a game they also must win to move to 9-9 in conference
play.USF is one of the most interesting
teams I have come across in recent memory as far as this exercise goes – on one
hand they are 11-5 in Big East play – no team has ever not made the dance with
that kind of mark – yet their RPI sits around #70 which would make them one of
the worst teams of all time to receive a bid as far as RPI goes.The Bulls could NO DOUBT seal their fate to
receiving a bid if they can close 2-0 @ Louisville and hosting West Virginia;
1-1 I still think they are positioned nicely; 0-2 may mean some trouble.If the teams on this list can reach .500 in
conference play maybe the safest bet to make would be whichever team goes the
furthest in the Big East Tournament will receive a bid.Right now, barring small conference
tournament upsets, the BE seems like a 8 to 9 bid league – which means 2 to 3
of these teams will make it.Two is probably
the most likely scenario when taking into consideration the likely hood we will
see 3-5 upsets.

Big Sky: Weber
State

The Big
Sky will likely come down to a battle between Weber State and Montana.On Jan 14th WST took down MON
rather easily which is why they hold the current bid in this edition, but the
return game is on Feb 28th @ Montana, with a probable 3rd
meeting in the conference tournament final to determine the automatic bid.

Big South:
UNC-Asheville

UNCA has a 4 game lead in their
conference, so any other team winning this conference tournament would
certainly be an upset but would not steal an at-large bid as the Big South is
definitely a one bid conference.

Big Ten: Ohio
State

Looking
good: Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana

Need
wins: Purdue.The Boilers check in
this week at 19-10/9-7, high 20s RPI – all decent numbers that have been
improving over the last few weeks.Purdue
also picked up a signature win on Saturday, beating Michigan on the road – they
are still only 1-6 vs. ranked teams, but do have decent wins over Temple, Iona
and Miami (FL) earlier in the season.With
games remaining vs. Penn State and @ Indiana, a 2-0 sweep would have them
sitting almost as a lock barring a first round Big Ten Tournament exit – the
key this week has to be at least getting one win moving them to a > .500
conference record.The BT Tourney
bracket for Purdue will shape up something like first round vs. Penn
State/Nebraska, second round vs. Ohio State/Michigan – in almost every scenario
I can imagine they would have to certainly avoid a loss to PSU/Nebraska in that
first round.

Big West: Long
Beach State

If LBST
does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current
at-large pool.The Beach is 14-0 in
conference play, easily plowing through the competition this season – but we
have seen this before, recently from LBST, only to have them lose in the
conference tournament.As talked about
often in this article, it is tough sledding trying to beat teams for the third
time in one season – which they will have to do multiple times to earn their
conference’s auto-bid.

Colonial: Drexel

Looking
good: VCU.The Rams have been
upgraded to this category as they are currently sitting in high 40s RPI wise,
relatively comfortable position for a team with a 25-6 record in one of the top
mid-major conferences around.So long as
they at least reach the conference tournament final I feel they have a very
strong chance at receiving an at-large bid, especially considering they have
won 14 of their last 15 games, and their 3 conference losses have come by a
combined 9 points. George Mason has
been removed from the “need wins” category following a pair of losses in their
last two outings.But, that being said,
Mason is still a very legit contender for winning the conference tournament –
and if they did so, it would be very interesting to see if the selection committee
does indeed give the Colonial three bids.

Conference USA:
Memphis

Need
wins: Southern Mississippi, UCF.SMISS
was downgraded this week from “looking good” to “need wins” after dropping two
of their last 3 to Houston and UTEP.With an RPI in the mid 60s the Golden Eagles will need to win their last
two vs. SMU and @ Marshall, along with making a run to at least the CUSA
Tournament semi-finals to receive legitimate consideration.The Golden Knights are basically on the same
predicament, but a little worse – their RPI is hovering around #80, so I figure
they need to at least beat Memphis again on the road this week, close the
regular season with a win over UAB, and go on a similar run in the conference
tournament.Just a few weeks ago this
looked like a possible 3 bid conference, now it’s looking like 1 is more likely
unless either of these teams gets real hot real fast.

Horizon: Valparaiso

The
Horizon is traditionally a one bid conference and there isn’t any reason to
think that will change this year.This
league is extremely competitive with not much difference between the top 8
teams – so the tournament is sure to be exciting – and would not surprise me
one bit if Valpo or even Cleveland State did not cut the nets down.I have placed action on Wisconsin-Green Bay
to win the Horizon tournament at 50/1 odds.

Ivy: Harvard

If HAR
does not win their conference during the regular season (remember the Ivy
League does not have a conference tournament) they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding
to the pool of current at-large teams.HAR has gone 3-2 in their last 5 league games, which places them in a
tie in the loss column for the top spot with Penn.Those two teams do not play again this year
after splitting the regular season pair of contests – a playoff, similar to
what we saw last season, could be in the cards again for the Ivy auto-bid.

MAAC: Iona

If IONA
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of
current at-large teams.The Gaels are a
very dangerous team, make no mistake about it.On the season they are 24-6, and 5 of their 6 losses were by single
digits (including a 1pt loss to Purdue in their opener).Of the teams right behind them in the
conference standings they did lose once to Loyola Maryland (#2 seed), and
Manhattan (#3 seed) – oddly that may bode well for them during Championship
Week.

MAC: Akron

If
AKRON does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus
adding to the pool of current at-large teams.Akron maintains a 2gm lead with 2 to play, and they reside in the
tougher East division of the MAC that has 5 of 6 teams above .500 in league
play.Although Akron will be the
favorite to win the conference tournament, I feel four teams have a legit shot
at cutting the nets down (Akron, Ohio, Buffalo, Kent State) – so the auto-bid
for this league is not a certainty at this point.

MEAC: Norfolk
State

Although
Savannah State has overtaken Norfolk State in the standings currently, and has
a better RPI, I am going to leave NS as my projected auto-bid winner based on
their win over SS earlier in the season in the team’s only meeting.

Missouri Valley:
Wichita State

Looking
good: Creighton.The Blue Jays are
back on the “looking good” line after closing the season with four straight
wins including the big bracket-busters victory over Long Beach State.With an RPI in the high 30s, as long as
Creighton picks up a couple of wins in the MVC Tournament they will solidify
their spot amongst the Field of 68.

Mountain West:
UNLV

Looking
good: New Mexico, San Diego State

Need
wins: Colorado State.Wyoming has
been removed from this list following their loss to Colorado State last week
which moved them to losing 4 of 5, and a below .500 in MWC play which certainly
doesn’t bode well for receiving an at-large.Then when you consider there are 3 teams that are close to locks to make
the field, getting four teams for this conference may be a stretch let alone
five.For now we will leave CSU but they
are on the brink of elimination, and must beat UNLV & Air Force to close
their regular season at the very least to remain in the next edition before
Championship Week.

Northeast: LIU
Brooklyn

LIUB
has grabbed my projected auto-bid from the NE based on their overtaking of
Wagner in the standings, and the fact Long Island already beat Wagner twice
this season.Similar other examples
discussed above, the potential third meeting could have a bid on the line – and
it is tough to beat a team three times in one season.

Ohio Valley:
Murray State

If MSU
does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current
at-large pool.Murray State has been
playing very well since seeing their bid for an undefeated season come to an
end 2.5 weeks ago – 5 straight wins and covers.Win or lose in the OVC Tourney they will be dancing, and they hope to at
least make the second weekend of action – and are a real threat to do so,
especially with a favorable draw or an upset or two in their bracket.

Pac 12: California

Looking good: Arizona,
Washington.Not much has occurred to
separate these teams since the last edition, but these three teams will be in
the field.California appears to be the
best team using the eye test, and some of the #’s as their RPI has been
climbing steadily in recent weeks settling in the mid 20s today.Arizona and Washington will both also be
dancing, probably being first round favorites seed wise come Selection Sunday.

Need
wins: Oregon, Colorado, Stanford.Oregon
has clearly taken a step above Colorado and Stanford in the past three games,
going 2-1 in road games including a win over Stanford.With the Ducks closing with a pair of home
games vs. Colorado and Utah, they appear to be in solid shape to be dancing as
the 4th Pac 12 team.Colorado
and Stanford both have work to do – I like the Buffs resume more than
Stanford’s, even considering Stanford does have a pair of nice OOC wins – but
the Cardinal win over Colorado last week may be the final nail in the Colorado
coffin.Both these teams have an
opportunity to improve their positioning this week as Colorado faces both
Oregon schools on the road, while Stanford hosts Cal to close the season.Both teams need to win those games to remain
in the next edition – they are teetering right now on the brink of elimination
barring a run in the Pac 12 Tourney.COLO figures to be the #5 seed which would set up a bracket facing USC
in first round, then a big QF match-up with likely Oregon or possibly
Arizona.Stanford on the other hand
figures to likely fall to the #7 seed (assumes a loss to Cal in season finale)
which would have them likely facing Arizona State in first round, then Cal or
Washington in second.I think a safe
assumption for both teams is win out, and must win AT LEAST TWO in Pac 12
tournament to keep their hopes alive.

Patriot: Bucknell

SEC: Kentucky

Looking
good: Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama

Need
wins: Mississippi State.Alabama has
jumped from the “need wins” group up to “looking good” based on going 3-0 over
the last week and a half, 6-2 in their last 8, an RPI in the low 20s, and OOC
wins over Wichita State, Purdue and VCU.The Tide still has work to do, a 2-0 close to the regular season with
wins over Auburn and Ole Miss would nearly lock them into a spot.Both Ole Miss and Arkansas were removed from
this edition as we kind of forecasted happening last time we published, while
Mississippi State has fallen from “looking good” to “need wins” based on losing
5 straight, a sub .500 conference record, double digit losses, and an RPI that
continues to plummet now sitting in the low 80s.Not only do they need wins, but they need ‘em
fast and furious to keep their faint hopes alive.At the very least the Bulldogs need to close
the year with wins @ South Carolina and home vs. Arkansas, and pick up one and
most likely two conference tourney wins – they will likely face
ARK/MISS/AUB/UGA in first round, then either Florida or Kentucky in Rd2.

Southern: Davidson

If DAV
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of
current at-large teams.Davidson could
have helped themselves out huge had they beat Wichita State at home during
bracket-busters, but with that loss it is unlikely they would receive a bid
should they lose in their conference tournament.

Southland: Texas-Arlington

Similar
to Long Beach State UTA has not lost a conference game this season – and that
may NOT bode well come conference tournament time – we shall see.

SWAC: Mississippi
Valley State

Similar
to Long Beach State and UTA, MSVS has not lost a conference game this season –
and that may NOT bode well come conference tournament time – we shall see.

Summit: Oral
Roberts

OR has
plowed thru the Summit League during the regular season only losing one game,
but they may be in for a battle should they face South Dakota State in the
conference tourney, whom they lost to by 15 earlier in the season.

Sun Belt: Middle
Tennessee State

If MTSU
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of
current at-large teams.

West Coast: St.
Mary’s

Looking
good: Gonzaga

Those
two teams are near locks to
be in the field, so if anyone else was to win the conference tournament that
would likely take away a bid from the current at-large pool.

Need
wins: BYU.The Cougars were swept by
St. Mary’s this year, but they did pick up a home win over Gonzaga which will
help their case.BYU is positioned
pretty strongly with a top 40 RPI, but an early exit from the WCC Tournament
could be fatal.

WAC: Nevada

If NEV
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of
current at-large teams.

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31

LOOKING GOOD: 27

Currently I project 58
of the 68 bids are
earned.

NEED WINS: 17
TEAMS I LISTED FOR 10 REMAINING SPOTS

If thereare upsets in
the a handful of conference tournaments the at-large spots will be reduced – so
the ten “open” spots I listed here are likely to be less, almost a 100%
certainty.So this time around I have
listed these teams in order, keeping in mind the most likely scenario only
sends the top 6 or 7 from this list because small conference tournament upsets
will steal auto-bids for some teams, and hence they will be forced into the
at-large pool:

Let’s first revisit the biggest differences from the 2/16
edition to see where we both stand on the pair I pointed out from this blog 10
days ago:

Illinois: Lunardi had the Illini in
the field 10 days ago, I did not.Today
Lunardi does not have them included, and I still do not.Looks like a check mark for me.

VCU:
Lunardi did not even list VCU in his first 8 teams out 10 days ago, I had the
Rams in.Today Lunardi has the Rams as
first four out, while I still have them in the field.Looks like another check mark for me.

I guess at this point I should be asking why this guy has a
job, right?J

Now let’s examine the biggest differences between the two of
us where things stand today:

Big East:
Lunardi has WVU solidly in his bracket, not even amongst the last four in while
I have WVU as the clear-cut 10th best team in the Big East and hence
not making the dance.Even though I
currently list 9 teams from the Big East receiving bids, I think that # winds
up being 8 as UConn will be pushed out after conference tournament upsets next
week; Lunardi currently has UConn as comfortably in his bracket as a 10 seed –
I just do not understand that, I know they have a great RPI but they are 7-9 in
conference play and if they do not AT LEAST win both their last two contests of
the regular season they are more than likely OUT – so to have them in so
comfortably is mind boggling.Lastly,
USF, I have them in the field right now pretty comfortably, while Lunardi has
them just missing – and again, to stress the point, his “first four out” is
more likely the “4th to 8th teams out” because as team’s
lose in conference tournaments his “first four out” bucket will only slide
further down the list when team’s he currently projects as in lose.USF is a bit of a conundrum as they do have a
terrible RPI for a team with their record playing in a power conference, but at
the end of the day if they go 12-6 or better in the Big East, unbalanced
schedule or not, they will get a bid in my opinion.

Northwestern &
Mississippi State: I have neither coming close to making the dance at
this point, and to be fair he has both barely sneaking in playing those
“play-in” games on Tuesday night.At the
end of the day team’s he has listed in those games almost certainly will slide
off the bracket after upsets, so we most likely will wind up agreeing that
these two teams will miss out – but nevertheless, for now we both are assuming
there are no upsets, and he still lists both while I list neither.

VCU: as
discussed above, I still list them as in the Field of 68, while Lunardi has at
least upgraded the Rams to his “first four out” bucket.Time will tell, but a conference like the
Colonial with three very solid clubs in my opinion deserves and will get two
bids – keep in mind Mason is still alive in the sense they have a legit shot at
winning the conference tourney.If that
was to happen I would give the other to either Drexel or VCU if they played in
the Final vs. Mason, if neither made it I would give it to Drexel.If neither makes the semifinals of the
conference tourney I may adjust and not give out two bids to this conference.

Oregon: I
feel pretty good about Oregon; they pass my eye test for sure as I have watched
quite a few of their games recently including last night @ Oregon State.20 wins, 11 in Pac 12 – yeah they could use a
boost to an RPI that sits around #70, but let’s see how rest of season and
tourney plays out.Lunardi has them
pretty safely OUT of the tournament right now as they reside in his “next four
out” bucket that at the end of the day is probably a 2 seed in the NIT – that
how far off they will be from making the cut.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Something that may not be known as far as my clients and my website goes is I am a MASSIVE GOLF FAN - golf is actually my favorite sport, right along with college football. But since it is such a tough sport to handicap, I do not post plays for golf - but with this tourney being bracket format, and since I do a few pools with friends, here are my picks - sorry being posted a little late, but this is what I had this morning:

Saturday, February 18, 2012

I will breakdown each conference and the team’s who I view
as a “lock” right now, who are likely to dance, and who are still alive but
need to do some work (obviously any team that wins their conference tournament
gets a bid, but in this last bucket I am only including team’s whose record/RPI
could still get them an at-large bid if they play well down the stretch).Teams are also listed in the order I view
their seeding or chances of receiving a bid.

America East:
Stony Brook

Atlantic Ten:
Temple

Looking
good: St. Louis, Xavier

Need
wins: UMass. The Minutemen went 1-1
this past week, and have an RPI hovering around #70 – not good for chances of
an at-large to be frank.But with an
18-7/7-4 record they are still alive.With games remaining vs. Temple & Xavier, the opportunity is there
for big wins – they most likely need at least a split in those and to win their
other two to have a legit shot barring a big run in the A-10 Tourney.LaSalle, losers of 3 straight with an RPI
around #85 has been removed as a potential at-large recipient.The A-10 appears to be a 3 bid league, with a
fourth an unlikely option.

ACC: North
Carolina

Looking
good: Duke, Florida State, Virginia

Need
wins: Miami (FL), NC State.Miami didn’t
do themselves any favors this past week losing a pair of games to UNC and
Florida State.But with an RPI of #42,
and a key win @ Duke they are still alive for an at-large – though a
potentially tough closing schedule may be tough to navigate through 4-1, which
is what I think they need to be in a good position heading into the ACC
Tourney.NC State could have nearly
sealed a bid last night had they not blown a 20pt second half lead @ Duke.Even with that loss they are still in
position to grab an at-large, but need a signature win as they so far have gone
0-5 vs. ranked teams.Home games with
Florida State and North Carolina in their next two will give them a chance to
achieve that big win – get one of those, and go 2-1 in their remaining three
and they will be well positioned.

Atlantic Sun:
Belmont

This
league will likely be decided between Belmont and Mercer in the A-Sun
Tourney.These two teams played earlier
in the year, way earlier in the year on December 3rd and Belmont won
by 4 on their home floor.The return
trip is the last game of the regular season, Feb. 25th at Mercer,
and a likely third meeting in the conference tournament final will be the
determining factor.

Big 12: Kansas

Looking
good: Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State

Need
wins: Kansas State, Texas.KState
did themselves no favors this past week blowing a double digit lead in Austin,
and losing to cross-town rival Kansas on Big Monday.The Wildcats do have wins over Alabama, Long
Beach State and Missouri so far which places them with a very strong profile –
but a 6-7 conference record needs to be improved to improve their chances for
an at-large.State needs at least a 3-2
finish to their conference schedule, and maybe even 4-1 depending on how they
do in their conference tourney.With
their next 3 vs. teams I view as tourney teams (Baylor, Missouri, Iowa State),
and the first two of those on the road, picking up a win @ Baylor or @ Missouri
may be critical.The Longhorns, new to
this week’s edition, have reeled off 4 straight wins to get them in the
discussion, especially with a rising RPI of #39, even though they lack a
signature win.With a favorable closing
schedule, if they could finish up 4-1 that would put them at 21-10/11-7, in
very good position.

Big East: Syracuse

Looking
good: Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame

Need
wins: West Virginia, UConn, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, South Florida.This Big East this season is down from what
it has recently been, but in a way that only makes it much tougher to decipher
between these “bubble teams.”When
comparing these 5 teams there is not much difference in their overall profiles,
but there are big differences in certain aspects such as RPI, conference
record, and key wins.I currently
stacked them as I estimate their chances of receiving an at-large bid,
including adding USF to this edition as even though they are 16-10 overall,
they are 9-4 in conference play and no Big East team has even been left out of
the dance if they have been better than .500 in conference play – even at .500
there may have been a few that were left out, if that.But in the new age of unbalanced schedules,
which has led to USF playing doubles vs. BE bottom-dwellers Pitt, Providence
and Villanova, definitely a .500 plus record will be needed for them to have
any shot at a bid – target 11-7, 12-6 would get them a bid in my opinion for
certain.The Big East Tournament, always
one of the best sporting events of the year, will be absolutely critical for
all these teams – so for now we will just leave this conference as such without
dissecting each team any more, and as the games and weeks pass hopefully we get
a clearer picture of the pecking order.

Big Sky: Weber
State

Like
the Atlantic Sun discussed above, the Big Sky will likely come down to a battle
between Weber State and Montana.On Jan
14th WST took down Montana rather easily which is why they hold the
current bid in this edition, but the return game is on Feb 25th @
Montana, with a likely 3rd meeting in the conference tournament
final to determine the automatic bid.

Big South:
UNC-Asheville

Big Ten: Ohio
State

Looking
good: Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana

Need
wins: Purdue.What a difference a
week can make when projecting at-large spots for the Big Ten.Last week Purdue was stacked last of the
three with Illinois & Minnesota; this week they are the only remaining
team.Illinois has now lost 7 of 8, most
likely eliminating any realistic shot they have at the big dance, and likely
putting Bruce Weber’s job on the line.Minnesota does have a nice road win @ Indiana, but currently sitting at
5-8 in the conference, #65 in the RPI, and no OOC wins to speak of has likely
eliminated them from a potential at-large, of course barring any deep run in
the Big Ten Tourney.Purdue checks in
this week at 17-9/7-6, #46 RPI – all decent numbers, but not great.The Boilers are 0-6 vs. ranked teams, but do
have decent wins over Temple, Iona and Miami (FL) earlier in the season.They close the season with 3 of 5 at home, and
3 of 5 vs. ranked teams – so the chances for big wins are there, the only
question is can they take advantage?

Big West: Long
Beach State

If LBST
does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current
at-large pool.

Colonial: Drexel

Need
wins: VCU, George Mason.Both these
squads continue winning games, and have impressive records, however all 3
schools including VCU still have RPI’s in the 80s, which means it’s unlikely
all 3 will get an invite. VCU is
currently 2-3 vs. Top 100 teams, including a win over USF – they will face #64
RPI Northern Iowa in bracket-busters over the weekend.Drexel is 3-2 vs. Top 100 schools with wins
over Princeton, VCU and George Mason.The
Dragons will face fellow NCAA bubble team Cleveland State on the road in
bracket-busters this weekend which will be a critical contest for the at-large chances
of both teams.Also keep in mind Drexel
did beat both VCU and George Mason in the team’s only regular season meetings
(both were at home however).George
Mason is 2-3 vs. Top 100 squads beating Bucknell and just this week taking down
VCU on a 3 at the buzzer.With all that
data I have changed the conference champ to Drexel for now since they are 2-0
vs. their competition for a bid, realizing the Colonial Tournament will be
immensely important for all involved – and if someone else was to win the
conference tourney 100% not all three of these schools would receive a bid.

Conference USA:
Memphis

Looking
good: Southern Mississippi

Need
wins: UCF.The Golden Knights do
have a nice OOC win over UConn, and have taken down Memphis during conference
play.And even with the close loss @ USM
on this past Saturday their RPI jumped from #62 to #55 – more wins are needed,
most likely they need to close 4-1 or better which would put them at 21-8/11-5
heading into their conference tournament.

Horizon: Valparaiso

The
Horizon is traditionally a one bid conference and there isn’t any reason to
think that will change this year.With
CSU losing 3 straight they have been replaced by Valparaiso in my
projections.Valpo has now taken the lead in the conference
standings, has risen ahead of CSU in the RPI, and has also beat CSU twice this
season.Both squads will be a part of
the bracket-busters games as CSU will host Drexel, while Valparaiso will travel
to the West Coast for a matchup with Loyola Marymount.Can Valpo accomplish the tough task of beating
CSU for a third time in the conference tourney?Keep in mind this league is extremely competitive with not much
difference between the top 8 teams – so the tournament is sure to be exciting,
probably not winding up with a VALPO/CSU Final, and likely resulting in the
only bid offered to the Horizon.

Ivy: Harvard

If HAR
does not win their conference during the regular season (remember the Ivy
League does not have a conference tournament) they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding
to the pool of current at-large teams.HAR lost their first Ivy League game this past weekend, and thus only
holds a one game lead in the loss column over Yale and Penn – two teams they
will play again this year, but both are at home.Still very likely HAR wins the auto-bid from
the Ivy.

MAAC: Iona

If IONA
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of
current at-large teams.

MAC: Akron

If
AKRON does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus
adding to the pool of current at-large teams.This week I have replaced Ohio with Akron as the Bobcats have struggled
of late in conference play and have fallen 3 games behind Akron in the loss
column.It remains very unlikely this
league gets more than one bid, with the current crop of teams thinking at-large
from this conference having RPI’s in the 80s at best.

MEAC: Norfolk
State

Missouri Valley:
Wichita State

Need
wins: Creighton.The Blue Jays have
fallen from a lock to be in the field to the “need wins” grouping after
dropping three straight, the last of which was a blow-out home loss to Wichita
State.While the Shockers now appear to
be the class of the MVC, Creighton is still touting a #28 RPI with wins over
WSU and San Diego State.This week’s
bracket-buster game hosting Long Beach State is very critical to Creighton’s at
large-prospects as a loss there could be the final death blow without a MVC
Tournament Title.

Mountain West:
UNLV

Looking
good: New Mexico, San Diego State

Need
wins: Colorado State, Wyoming.I
frankly do not think either of these teams has much of a shot at receiving an
at-large, but I will keep them on the list for at least one more week – the
loser of their matchup this weekend in Colorado Springs will be removed for
certain however.Both teams have HUGE
games this coming week besides their head to head matchup as CSU faces New
Mexico at home, while Wyoming goes to San Diego State.Both teams need wins, and BIG wins in a hurry
to remain in the conversation.

Northeast: LIU
Brooklyn

LIUB
has grabbed my projected auto-bid from the NE based on their overtaking of
Wagner in the standings, and the fact Long Island already beat Wagner twice
this season.Similar to CSU/VALPO
discussed above, the potential third meeting could have a bid on the line – and
it is tough to beat a team three times in one season.

Ohio Valley:
Murray State

If MSU
does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current
at-large pool.Murray State finally saw
their undefeated season come to an end, but they have bounced back nicely with
a pair of wins and covers – prior to these two covers they were really
struggling ATS wise as no question the pressure of the undefeated record was impacting
their performance.Without the pressure
of a potentially undefeated season look for them to close the regular season
and conference tournament strongly, and hope for a good seed and draw to make
some real noise come mid March.

Pac 12: California

Looking good: Arizona,
Washington.The Pac 12 this season is
very similar to the Big East, minus the top teams.The top 3 teams seem to be Cal, Arizona and
Washington and all appear to be in decent shape as far as receiving a bid
goes.Cal has really taken control of
the conference in recent weeks, winning 3 straight and 8 of 10, climbing to #37
in the latest RPI.Arizona also appears
to be peaking at the right time winning 5 straight and 6 of 7, likely locking
in their bid although their seeding may be lower than some expect with an RPI
close to #70.Washington may be playing
the best of the three teams right now, if that is possible seeing how well ARI
and CAL are playing, as the Huskies have won 7 of 8 and 10 of 12.These teams will be spending the rest of
their regular seasons jockeying to improve their seeding.

Need
wins: Oregon, Colorado, Stanford.These
three teams are very close to each other as far as resume goes – a key to
determining the order of chances they have at grabbing an at-large will be the
round robin they still have to play vs. each other – all 3 teams sit at 1-1
right now vs. the other two.None of the
three teams has beaten Cal, but Colorado and Stanford will get another chance
(OREG is 0-2 already).Both Oregon and
Colorado are 2-1 vs. ARI & WAS, while STAN is 0-2.But the reason STAN gets to remain on the
list is they are the only one of the three with any OOC wins to even mention,
beating NC State and Colorado State earlier in the season.Look for at least one of these teams to be
removed either next edition or the one that follows.

Patriot: Bucknell

SEC: Kentucky

Looking
good: Florida, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State

Need
wins: Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas.Similar
to the Pac 12 that has three teams in the “need wins” group, these three
schools will still play a round robin amongst themselves which will start to
weed out the contenders from the pretenders.Alabama is still sitting the best of this group, and it’s almost to the
point the other two schools will be removed.ALA has an RPI of #35, has beaten both the other schools listed here,
and also picked up OOC wins over Wichita State, Purdue and VCU.Both Ole Miss and Arkansas need to close
extremely strong and play well in the SEC Tournament, which seems unlikely at
this point; but they still remain on the list with at least a shot at winning
enough games to receive consideration.

Southern: Davidson

If DAV
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of
current at-large teams.Davidson hosts
Wichita State in bracket-busters this weekend, which will be a very big
opportunity for them to bolster their resume if an at-large bid was the only
option.

Southland: Texas-Arlington

SWAC: Mississippi
Valley State

Summit: Oral
Roberts

If OR
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of
current at-large teams.OR hosts Akron
at 2pm tomorrow in bracket-busters play.

Sun Belt: Middle
Tennessee State

If MTSU
does not win their conference tournament they would still be aliveto receive a
bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

West Coast: St.
Mary’s

Looking
good: Gonzaga

Those
two teams are near locks to
be in the field, so if anyone else was to win the conference tournament that
would likely take away a bid from the current at-large pool.

Need
wins: BYU.The Cougars continue to
play well of late including picking up an OOC win @ Virginia Tech a few weeks
ago.Unfortunately they were swept by
St. Mary’s this year, but they did pick up a home win over Gonzaga which will
help their case.The Cougars were not
invited to partake in bracket-busters, so they will have to rely on St. Mary’s
winning @ Murray State, and to a lesser extent Loyola Marymount taking down
Horizon foe Valpo.

WAC: Nevada

If NEV
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of
current at-large teams.Nevada travels
to Iona tomorrow in bracket-busters play, and that would be a very nice win for
the Wolfpack to post on their resume.

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31

LOOKING GOOD: 25

Currently I project 56
of the 68 bids are
earned.

NEED WINS: 24
TEAMS I LISTED FOR 12 REMAINING SPOTS

Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference
Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS
from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use
an at-large bid on themselves.We are
likely to see at least three of those instances, so essentially we have about 26
teams jockeying for position to earn ~9 spots.

Here are the 12
teams I currently believe will get a bid (in no order):

Illinois – not even on list of “need wins”Illinois
– IN (last four IN)

Xavier – IN Xavier
– first four out

Texas – first four outTexas
– IN

VCU – IN VCU
– not listed

Oregon – IN Oregon
– next four out

The biggest differences appear to be:

Illinois, who he has
as playing in one of the #12 seed play-in games vs. me just removing the Illini
from consideration.Illinois has 10
losses, is 5-8 in conference, has an RPI around #60, and has lost 7 of 8 games
– how he can still have them in the dance I do not understand.I feel I am correct with Illinois.

VCU, who I have in the field, is not listed anywhere on the
sheet of Mr. Mid-Major himself, even his top 16 bubble teams.With the three CAA teams (Drexel, VCU and
George Mason) all having very solid seasons in the W/L column, and the success
of this league in the past as far as NCAA Tournament wins goes, I find it hard
to believe two of these teams will not get an invite.I feel Joe is missing the boat here on VCU or
George Mason getting a bid – really comes down to my feeling 2 of those 3 will
get a bid so long as one of the three wins the conference tournament – and if
two face each other in the conference tournament final those two will get bids.

The rest of the differences were very close calls as you can
see, and with so much of the season still to play there will be lots of changes
to those current projections.We can
re-address down the road.

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.