Essendon looking for some calm before the storm

With their federal court case next week promising to plunge Essendon into OJ Simpson/Oscar Pistorious territory (OK, I’m exaggerating slightly – it’s going to be broadcast on the ABC while we’re all busy at work), the Bombers face one of their oldest rivals in an encounter that should shore up a finals spot. In theory, anyway. The Tigers remain a mathematical chance of playing in September too, though that’s a little like saying that Vince Vaughn remains a mathematical chance of playing the title role in the next Batman film. (Although, crazily, he could be in the next series of True Detective. Who does he think he is, Matthew McConaughey?)

The Tigers have pieced together a previously-unimaginable string of five consecutive wins. In truth they should have beaten GWS, West Coast, Brisbane and St Kilda, but their round 17 triumph over Port at least gave a glimpse of what might have been had they not started the season with such all-encompassing calamity. It’s actually Richmond’s longest winning streak since 2000, when an artist by the name of Sisqo was making his distinctive mark on the charts and Aaron Fiora, Ezra Poyas and Royce Vardy felt like the future. If you find a more tenuous link to the Thong Song this week, I’d be very surprised.

Home sweet home

Last week against the Roos, Geelong failed to win the clearances, inside-50s and the contested possessions, but they still took the game by 32 points and remain a chance of securing a top-two spot heading towards finals time. Chris Scott’s side has often won comfortably without being the dominant Geelong we’ve known in seasons past, but let’s also look at their four defeats this year for some clues:

Round six – 40-point loss to Port Adelaide (away)

Round nine – 32-point loss to Fremantle (away)

Round 11 – 110-point loss to Sydney (away)

Round 14 – 40-point loss to Gold Coast (away)

So yes, they’ve been flogged by a couple of in-form interstate sides on road trips but they’re also yet to drop a game in Melbourne or on their turf at Simmonds Stadium. The laws of probability tell us they’ll do enough to get the four points against Freo, but the prospect of an interstate final looms as an intriguing subplot and maybe a source of some discomfort for Scott and co.

Somewhat surprisingly, Dockers skipper Matthew Pavlich will take his place against the Cats despite twice failing concussion tests in the wake of Fremantle’s clash with Carlton last weekend, from which Pavlich was subbed out. “Well, he failed his Cogstate [measure of cognition]; we retested it today, and he passed. So from here, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t play, as long as he doesn’t become symptomatic later in the week,” said Freo coach Ross Lyon on Wednesday, rather disconcertingly bringing to mind the old Lysenkoist tradition of redoing the experiment until you get the result you’re after.

That incident against the Blues came 12 days after Pavlich had also suffered a concussion against St Kilda, but Lyon maintains that his star has been treated with the utmost care. “I think we’re world’s best practice, he said, “We’re very good, the AFL.”

Bonus: this match will be coming to you live via the Guardian goal-by-goal live blog.

Sydney will continue to make life miserable for Port

Poor John Butcher. First he was faced with the harsh reality of heading back to the SANFL to work on his notoriously shaky kicking at goal (with mixed results to say the least), now he’s joined Jack Redden and three other team-mates in being quarantined from Port Adelaide’s training base after falling victim to viral meningitis. In the wake of their loss to Collingwood last week, Port’s slide out of top four contention has them feeling just as sick, and even at home they won’t be relishing the prospect of taking on Sydney while they’re so short on form and confidence.

Adelaide Oval was a veritable fortress for Port in the first half of the year but two weeks back even lowly Melbourne pushed them to the brink of defeat and a fortnight before that a middling Essendon side knocked them off. While they were riding high it was hard not to love the Power, and even if they should lose this one they’ll retain fifth spot, but a season that initially promised a shot at the ultimate glory is slowly fading. Port’s hope this week is that they can stand firm at home and climb back into the top four on the back of a Freo defeat at Geelong. Having to rely on other results going their way is not what they’d have hoped for six weeks back.

The Hunger Games, finals edition

For the neutral observer, the AFL ladder currently presents a pleasing range of possibilities heading towards September. All top five teams sit within two games of one another and their current positions represent a pretty accurate hierarchy of Premiership favouritism. Below them in spots six to 10, North Melbourne, Essendon, Collingwood and the Suns sit level for wins, with Adelaide one game adrift. All are capable of a week two finals upset, keeping things at least theoretically interesting.

Within the cluster of sides fighting for eighth, the Pies, Crows and Suns all have a tough task this week. Collingwood prevailed in a crunch home game against Port last week, but their voyage to Patersons and a clash with Adam Simpson’s enigmatic West Coast side is a tricky assignment. Adelaide also hit the road and take on a Brisbane outfit that is much better than its 15th place suggests, particularly in defence. Rounding out the group, the Suns must also pack an overnight bag to take on Carlton at Etihad.

The best and worst of the rest

The Giants have unquestionably benefited from media apathy in their dire season, so it’ll come as no great shock if North Melbourne leave them and Spotless Stadium in a mess on Saturday. The margin of Hawthorn’s likely victory over Melbourne will depend on which Dees side shows up; the spirited triers who have stayed in touch most weeks this year, or the exasperating rabble who have occasionally reverted to the bad old ways of the past half-decade. St Kilda will roll on the Lenny Hayes appreciation tour on Sunday, but the Bulldogs should be good enough to spoil the party.

In draft watch news, here’s a hypothetical to depress/entice the supporters of both Melbourne and St Kilda: if the Saints do manage to beat the Dogs this weekend or, failing that, the Tigers the week after, plus the Dees go down to GWS next weekend, Melbourne will take the wooden spoon. It’s a race to the bottom and how great would that be for Paul Roos; generous helpings of praise for stemming the tide of shame but also the bonus of scooping the best under-18 in the land? Be afraid, Saints fans, be very afraid.