Sergei MARKOV, director of the Institute of Political Studies (Russian
Academy of Sciences), predicts that the Communist Party of the Russian
Federation (KPRF) is going to win parliamentary elections in December 2003.

Talking to a Trud correspondent, Markov noted that the inertial scenario of
the Russian political situation's development pre-supposed a stable social
situation that would enable the United Russia party to obtain the majority of
all State Duma seats. However, this scenario may fail to come true. This can be
explained by several factors.

The political elite has failed in its efforts to establish a normal party of
power, Markov stressed. Meanwhile United Russia isn't a very attractive-looking
organization in this respect, he added. The United Russia party has so far
failed to suggest any clear-cut election campaign concept.

Markov, who has connections in the Kremlin's corridors of power, considers
this to be the party's main mistake. Second, an effective and comprehensive
economic growth policy hasn't been drafted either. Moreover, economic growth
rates tend to subside at a time when United Russia says that it's responsible
for all nationwide developments.

The Government is almost completely controlled by big-league oligarchic
monopolies, Markov believes. At the same time, small businesses and medium-size
companies lack any favorable conditions for their development, he added.

The political science expert draws attention to the fact that nationwide
strikes are now picking up momentum. These strikes are being caused by
persisting wage arrears, the crisis of the housing and municipal-utilities
reform, as well as by those unpredictable consequences of the projected power
industry reform and corrupt local authorities. In the obtaining situation, the
KPRF has better chances of winning parliamentary elections because it can unite
all protest-minded and opposition voters.