After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »

September

9/17

Veracruz0

43%

28%

Lobos BUAP1

29%

VER

BUAP

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.6

1.4

Non-shot xG

1.2

1.2

9/17

Toluca3

48%

29%

Querétaro2

23%

TOL

QTO

Adjusted goals

3.2

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.5

1.9

Non-shot xG

1.0

0.6

9/16

Guadalajara1

49%

29%

Pumas UNAM1

22%

GDL

PUM

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.2

0.7

Non-shot xG

1.8

0.2

9/16

Necaxa1

45%

32%

Puebla1

23%

NEC

PUE

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.5

1.7

Non-shot xG

1.3

0.6

9/16

León3

44%

27%

Pachuca1

29%

LEO

PAC

Adjusted goals

3.2

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.3

1.0

Non-shot xG

1.2

1.4

9/16

Monterrey2

59%

25%

Atlas1

16%

MON

ATL

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.6

0.7

Non-shot xG

1.4

0.7

9/16

Cruz Azul2

46%

29%

Santos Laguna1

25%

CAZ

SAN

Adjusted goals

1.7

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.5

0.5

Non-shot xG

1.9

0.7

9/15

Tijuana1

39%

30%

Club América1

31%

TIJ

AME

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.3

1.1

Non-shot xG

1.7

0.6

9/15

Morelia3

30%

29%

Tigres UANL3

41%

MOR

TIG

Adjusted goals

3.2

3.2

Shot-based xG

3.4

1.0

Non-shot xG

1.5

1.1

9/10

Santos Laguna0

45%

27%

Toluca0

28%

SAN

TOL

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.9

0.4

Non-shot xG

1.3

0.6

9/10

Pumas UNAM0

39%

30%

Tijuana2

32%

PUM

TIJ

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.6

Shot-based xG

0.4

1.4

Non-shot xG

1.2

0.7

9/9

Club América2

54%

27%

Veracruz0

20%

AME

VER

Adjusted goals

1.7

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.8

0.8

Non-shot xG

1.4

0.8

9/9

Pachuca1

49%

29%

Guadalajara3

22%

PAC

GDL

Adjusted goals

1.1

3.2

Shot-based xG

0.4

2.5

Non-shot xG

0.6

1.7

9/9

Monterrey1

58%

26%

Necaxa0

15%

MON

NEC

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.7

0.4

Non-shot xG

0.7

0.8

9/9

Lobos BUAP1

39%

28%

Morelia3

33%

BUAP

MOR

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.5

Shot-based xG

1.9

1.2

Non-shot xG

2.0

0.9

9/9

Querétaro1

39%

28%

León2

33%

QTO

LEO

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

0.3

0.5

Non-shot xG

0.5

0.6

9/8

Puebla0

33%

31%

Cruz Azul0

35%

PUE

CAZ

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.3

0.6

Non-shot xG

0.5

0.6

August

8/27

Veracruz1

40%

29%

Pumas UNAM0

31%

VER

PUM

Adjusted goals

0.8

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.5

1.2

Non-shot xG

1.6

1.4

8/27

Toluca2

47%

29%

Puebla1

24%

TOL

PUE

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.9

1.0

Non-shot xG

1.7

0.9

8/26

Guadalajara0

46%

30%

Querétaro0

25%

GDL

QTO

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.5

1.0

Non-shot xG

0.8

1.0

8/26

Necaxa2

41%

31%

Atlas1

28%

NEC

ATL

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.3

0.7

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.6

8/26

Morelia2

35%

30%

Club América0

35%

MOR

AME

Adjusted goals

1.6

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.7

2.5

Non-shot xG

0.4

1.2

8/26

León1

43%

26%

Santos Laguna2

30%

LEO

SAN

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.7

Shot-based xG

1.1

1.0

Non-shot xG

1.6

1.4

8/26

Tigres UANL3

64%

22%

Lobos BUAP2

13%

TIG

BUAP

Adjusted goals

2.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.4

1.9

Non-shot xG

2.3

0.5

8/26

Cruz Azul1

36%

30%

Monterrey1

35%

CAZ

MON

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.3

2.2

Non-shot xG

0.4

1.1

8/25

Tijuana2

37%

29%

Pachuca1

34%

TIJ

PAC

Adjusted goals

1.7

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.6

0.2

Non-shot xG

1.1

0.6

8/23

Monterrey4

53%

27%

Toluca1

20%

MON

TOL

Adjusted goals

3.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.8

0.7

Non-shot xG

1.8

0.9

8/23

Necaxa1

35%

33%

Cruz Azul1

33%

NEC

CAZ

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.7

1.4

Non-shot xG

0.9

1.0

8/23

Santos Laguna1

45%

28%

Guadalajara1

27%

SAN

GDL

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.7

1.2

Non-shot xG

2.5

0.7

8/23

Puebla0

39%

28%

León1

32%

PUE

LEO

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.7

1.1

Non-shot xG

1.3

1.1

8/23

Club América2

34%

30%

Tigres UANL2

36%

AME

TIG

Adjusted goals

2.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

2.1

1.8

Non-shot xG

1.2

1.2

8/22

Pumas UNAM1

44%

29%

Morelia2

27%

PUM

MOR

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

0.9

0.7

Non-shot xG

1.3

0.9

8/22

Querétaro1

42%

30%

Tijuana3

28%

QTO

TIJ

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.5

Shot-based xG

0.7

1.8

Non-shot xG

1.0

1.1

8/22

Atlas1

53%

26%

Lobos BUAP1

21%

ATL

BUAP

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.8

Shot-based xG

0.7

2.4

Non-shot xG

0.8

2.0

8/22

Pachuca4

51%

28%

Veracruz1

21%

PAC

VER

Adjusted goals

4.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.3

0.7

Non-shot xG

1.7

1.3

8/20

Toluca0

48%

30%

Necaxa0

23%

TOL

NEC

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.6

1.0

Non-shot xG

1.1

1.7

8/19

Guadalajara0

47%

30%

Puebla1

24%

GDL

PUE

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.8

Shot-based xG

0.9

0.4

Non-shot xG

0.8

0.8

8/19

León1

33%

27%

Monterrey2

40%

LEO

MON

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.3

0.7

Non-shot xG

1.4

1.5

8/19

Veracruz1

42%

29%

Querétaro1

29%

VER

QTO

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.5

0.9

Non-shot xG

0.4

1.4

8/19

Tigres UANL2

58%

26%

Pumas UNAM0

16%

TIG

PUM

Adjusted goals

1.9

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.2

1.0

Non-shot xG

1.7

0.7

8/19

Lobos BUAP2

31%

29%

Club América3

40%

BUAP

AME

Adjusted goals

—

—

Shot-based xG

—

—

Non-shot xG

—

—

8/19

Cruz Azul2

46%

29%

Atlas1

24%

CAZ

ATL

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.1

0.5

Non-shot xG

1.3

1.1

8/18

Tijuana2

39%

28%

Santos Laguna0

33%

TIJ

SAN

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.6

1.5

Non-shot xG

0.8

1.8

8/18

Morelia1

38%

30%

Pachuca2

32%

MOR

PAC

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

0.7

1.7

Non-shot xG

1.3

1.2

8/13

Santos Laguna2

52%

27%

Veracruz3

22%

SAN

VER

Adjusted goals

2.1

3.2

Shot-based xG

1.5

1.0

Non-shot xG

1.4

0.9

8/13

Pumas UNAM2

49%

26%

Lobos BUAP0

25%

PUM

BUAP

Adjusted goals

1.3

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.5

0.6

Non-shot xG

0.8

0.7

8/12

Necaxa0

43%

29%

León3

28%

NEC

LEO

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.2

Shot-based xG

1.0

1.5

Non-shot xG

2.2

1.3

8/12

Pachuca2

32%

30%

Tigres UANL1

39%

PAC

TIG

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.3

1.7

Non-shot xG

1.1

1.0

8/12

Monterrey4

49%

29%

Guadalajara1

22%

MON

GDL

Adjusted goals

4.2

1.1

Shot-based xG

3.4

0.8

Non-shot xG

2.0

0.5

8/12

Cruz Azul0

47%

28%

Toluca0

25%

CAZ

TOL

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.7

0.1

Non-shot xG

1.2

0.6

8/12

Querétaro2

41%

30%

Morelia1

30%

QTO

MOR

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.7

1.2

Non-shot xG

1.4

0.7

8/11

Atlas0

42%

29%

Club América1

29%

ATL

AME

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.4

1.3

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.7

8/11

Puebla1

41%

29%

Tijuana1

30%

PUE

TIJ

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.9

1.2

Non-shot xG

1.2

0.6

8/6

Veracruz2

42%

29%

Puebla0

29%

VER

PUE

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.8

0.5

Non-shot xG

0.8

1.4

8/6

Toluca3

42%

29%

Atlas2

29%

TOL

ATL

Adjusted goals

3.2

2.1

Shot-based xG

2.6

0.8

Non-shot xG

1.4

1.1

8/5

Guadalajara2

47%

32%

Necaxa2

21%

GDL

NEC

Adjusted goals

2.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.4

1.0

Non-shot xG

1.5

0.7

8/5

Club América2

49%

28%

Pumas UNAM1

24%

AME

PUM

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.4

0.8

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.8

8/5

León2

38%

28%

Cruz Azul2

34%

LEO

CAZ

Adjusted goals

2.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.1

1.2

Non-shot xG

1.3

1.5

8/5

Tigres UANL1

63%

24%

Querétaro1

13%

TIG

QTO

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.4

1.2

Non-shot xG

1.6

0.4

8/5

Lobos BUAP3

31%

29%

Pachuca2

40%

BUAP

PAC

Adjusted goals

—

—

Shot-based xG

—

—

Non-shot xG

—

—

8/4

Tijuana0

36%

30%

Monterrey3

33%

TIJ

MON

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.9

Shot-based xG

0.6

2.7

Non-shot xG

1.3

1.4

8/4

Morelia1

38%

28%

Santos Laguna1

33%

MOR

SAN

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.8

0.6

Non-shot xG

2.3

1.2

July

7/30

Santos Laguna1

32%

28%

Tigres UANL1

40%

SAN

TIG

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.8

1.0

Non-shot xG

1.2

1.0

7/30

Toluca3

44%

28%

León1

28%

TOL

LEO

Adjusted goals

3.2

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.6

1.9

Non-shot xG

1.0

1.2

7/29

Necaxa1

41%

31%

Tijuana0

28%

NEC

TIJ

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.9

0.5

Non-shot xG

0.9

1.0

7/29

Pachuca0

46%

29%

Club América2

24%

PAC

AME

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.6

0.7

Non-shot xG

1.8

0.8

7/29

Monterrey1

57%

26%

Veracruz0

17%

MON

VER

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.7

0.2

Non-shot xG

0.6

0.8

7/29

Cruz Azul1

45%

30%

Guadalajara1

25%

CAZ

GDL

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.3

0.5

Non-shot xG

0.7

0.5

7/29

Querétaro0

54%

26%

Lobos BUAP4

19%

QTO

BUAP

Adjusted goals

0.0

3.7

Shot-based xG

1.4

1.0

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.8

7/28

Atlas2

49%

27%

Pumas UNAM1

24%

ATL

PUM

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.9

1.2

Non-shot xG

1.6

0.9

7/28

Puebla1

42%

29%

Morelia1

29%

PUE

MOR

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.7

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.3

1.1

7/23

Veracruz0

40%

31%

Necaxa2

28%

VER

NEC

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.6

0.9

Non-shot xG

2.2

0.6

7/23

Pumas UNAM1

36%

28%

Pachuca0

36%

PUM

PAC

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.5

0.7

Non-shot xG

0.8

0.9

7/22

Guadalajara0

47%

29%

Toluca0

24%

GDL

TOL

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.6

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.0

0.8

7/22

León0

45%

28%

Atlas3

27%

LEO

ATL

Adjusted goals

0.0

3.2

Shot-based xG

2.0

1.7

Non-shot xG

1.6

0.8

7/22

Tigres UANL5

59%

26%

Puebla0

16%

TIG

PUE

Adjusted goals

5.3

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.0

1.3

Non-shot xG

0.9

1.0

7/22

Lobos BUAP2

27%

27%

Santos Laguna2

46%

BUAP

SAN

Adjusted goals

—

—

Shot-based xG

—

—

Non-shot xG

—

—

7/22

Club América0

50%

27%

Querétaro1

23%

AME

QTO

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.8

1.1

Non-shot xG

1.0

0.4

7/21

Tijuana0

42%

30%

Cruz Azul2

29%

TIJ

CAZ

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.8

Shot-based xG

0.8

1.9

Non-shot xG

0.8

1.1

7/21

Morelia0

36%

29%

Monterrey0

35%

MOR

MON

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.3

1.6

Non-shot xG

0.6

1.1

See all&blacktriangledown;

Team rating

avg. simulated season

avg. simulated season

end-of-season probabilities

team

spi

off.

def.

W

D

L

goal diff.

proj. pts.pts.

make playoffs

win clausura

Monterrey23 pts

55.7

1.5

1.1

11.0

4.1

1.8

+18

37

>99%

27%

Tigres UANL13 pts

52.3

1.5

1.2

6.9

6.5

3.6

+10

27

84%

15%

Cruz Azul15 pts

46.4

1.2

1.1

6.3

8.4

2.3

+6

27

85%

11%

Club América17 pts

46.1

1.3

1.3

8.1

4.3

4.7

+5

28

89%

10%

Toluca16 pts

41.9

1.2

1.3

6.9

6.2

3.8

+2

27

81%

7%

Tijuana14 pts

43.2

1.2

1.2

6.8

4.4

5.8

+1

25

64%

6%

León13 pts

43.8

1.3

1.4

7.0

3.2

6.7

+1

24

60%

5%

Morelia13 pts

41.6

1.2

1.4

5.7

6.4

4.9

+2

23

53%

4%

Necaxa13 pts

38.7

1.0

1.2

5.7

6.4

5.0

-1

23

49%

3%

Guadalajara9 pts

41.7

1.1

1.2

3.8

8.4

4.8

-2

20

21%

2%

Pachuca9 pts

42.0

1.3

1.5

5.8

2.2

9.0

-4

20

19%

2%

Santos Laguna8 pts

43.2

1.3

1.4

4.2

7.2

5.6

-2

20

21%

2%

Atlas7 pts

39.9

1.2

1.4

5.1

3.6

8.2

-1

19

19%

2%

Lobos BUAP11 pts

36.6

1.2

1.6

5.3

4.2

7.5

-3

20

23%

1%

Querétaro9 pts

37.0

1.1

1.5

4.5

5.3

7.1

-7

19

13%

<1%

Puebla7 pts

36.9

1.0

1.4

3.6

6.3

7.0

-9

17

6%

<1%

Veracruz10 pts

33.6

0.9

1.4

4.9

3.3

8.8

-9

18

9%

<1%

Pumas UNAM7 pts

36.1

1.1

1.5

4.3

3.3

9.4

-7

16

5%

<1%

Forecast from

season

The top two teams from each group qualify for the knockout phase.The third-place team from each group qualifies for the Europa League knockout phase.The third-place finisher from each group in the Champions League — eight teams total — will join the Europa League in the round of 32.The top six teams from each conference — 12 teams total — make the MLS playoffs. The top two teams from each conference receive a first-round bye.The top eight teams at the end of the regular season make the Liga MX playoffs.The top four teams at the end of the regular season make the NWSL playoffs.Three teams are promoted, and four teams are relegated. Depending on the league standings, playoffs for the final promotion and relegation spots may be necessary.Four teams — based on overall performance during the last four seasons — are relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the second-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom two teams are automatically relegated, and the third-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the next two bottom teams will enter a playoff against teams from the lower division to determine if they are relegated.