Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Angels - Signed Hillenbrand

Los Angeles Angels - Signed 1B Shea Hillenbrand to a 1-year contract.

A wonderful $6.5 million with a vesting option for 2008. If you ignore that Hillenbrand can’t field at 3B, can’t hit well enough to be a 1B, is a worse hitter than the Yankees got for $50,000 in the Rule 5 draft, he’s not particularly skilled at any aspect of the hitting, he isn’t fast, he will make $6.5 million, the Angels have other 1B options, he doesn’t like gay people, he doesn’t seem to like many straight people, and seems to think he’s a star player, and he spent half the season being unable to hit NL pitchers, this is a really good signing.

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When a signing this bad occurs, I always want to know what was going on inside of the GM who made the deal's head: what possesed them to do such a thing? My guess is a walrus dancing to a monkey playing the jug here.

This totally seals the deal. The Angels are now favorites -- not just in the West, not just in the AL, not even for the World Series: They will emerge victorious from the Universal Playoffs, to be held on the planet Xylon-23 near Betelgeuse. It's guaranteed. I'm calling it: Angels 4, Zipstorn Qwglitzists 1.

BTFers have always hated Shea; I've liked him since he dissed Theo Epstein so memorably. I think those Zips projections are way low; he's only 31 and has a lifetime 774 OPS including his first lousy season. If he plays regularly, I'd expect him to get .295/.340/.460, which is well worth $6.5mm for a 1 year contract in today's market.

Well crap, I have to admit, I thought the Angels would have a better offseason than this. They still have all those prospects to trade, but it sure seems like Stoneman is going to sit on his hands. I really feel the A's have dodged a bullet so far. So far, because, man, that's a load of prospects they still have.

And yeah, I'm not sure why calling somebody a faggot makes them admirable. It's not Theo's fault he was born with a natural intelligence that allowed him to see Hillenbrand was not all that and a cupcake. As somebody fortunate to be born wothout such a defect, Shea should have more patience.

When a signing this bad occurs, I always want to know what was going on inside of the GM who made the deal's head: what possesed them to do such a thing? My guess is a walrus dancing to a monkey playing the jug here.

They will emerge victorious from the Universal Playoffs, to be held on the planet Xylon-23 near Betelgeuse. It's guaranteed. I'm calling it: Angels 4, Zipstorn Qwglitzists 1.

Wrong on several levels. First, Hillenbrand will lead the Angels to LAST PLACE. He'll hit .280 with 17 homers and knock in 80-90 runs, and Scioscia and Hatcher will go on and on about how much he's added to the lineup and protecting Vlad. He'll also use up more than 600 AB and hit into 30 double plays. And they'll scratch their heads and wonder why they are second to last in runs scored. And then they'll probably think they could do better if only they had more hitters like Shea. Its gonna be a sh**storm of a season.

Oh, and 2007 will feature something from me that I've never done before in my life. Root for a Red Sox pitcher to get an Angel hitter out. Just wait for the first time the Sox bring Donnelly in to face Hillenbrand.

I think those Zips projections are way low; he's only 31 and has a lifetime 774 OPS including his first lousy season. If he plays regularly, I'd expect him to get .295/.340/.460, which is well worth $6.5mm for a 1 year contract in today's market.

Except for half a year in SF, Angel's stadium is the least favorable hitting home park he's played
last four seasons:
.280/.314/.468 (Bos/Ari)
.310/.348/.464 (Arizona)
.291/.343/.449 (Toronto)
.277/.313/.451 (Tor/SF)

He's reached an .800 OPS just once, I think your projection is as unreasonably high as Zips may be low.
My guess is he'll hit midway between the Zips' projection and your's

When a signing this bad occurs, I always want to know what was going on inside of the GM who made the deal's head: what possesed them to do such a thing?

It seems to me that GMs value certainty a lot more than people here do. I don't know if Stoneman has access to project systems or not, but if he did, he might conclude that there's a 75% shot that Hillenbrand will put up a .274/.327/.408 line, or said another way that he should be able to do so. If he looks at a McPherson projection, Stoneman reasons that McPherson could put up a .263/.323/.503 line. He has data that tells him Hillenbrand has almost always done that well in the majors, and that McPherson has yet too.

Giving a job to Hillenbrand allows him to check off a line on his off-season punch list. If Hillenbrand goes out and hits .275 with 18 homers and 75 RBI, that looks pretty good, and if the team isn't scoring enough runs, he has to figure out a way during the season to get more production than that.

Handing a job to Kotchman or McPherson again isn't comforting enough to check anything off. It looks like the same hole that was there last year. In his mind, he believes he has every reason to believe that Kotchman or McPherson will fail again. So, at mid-season, not only does he have to go out and find someone better than .275/18/75, he has lost that level of production for half a year.

There's also the PR side of it. I'll bet the papers and talk shows in Anaheim like the move, and if he did nothing but wait for Kotchman and McPherson to perform as they're capable, he'd be roasted.

I'm not saying that this is good reasoning, but I think it addresses the question raised by Astro Bonilla.

I think that makes you person #3 on this planet that fits in that category, behind his wife Jessica and his personal sports psychologist, Doug Gardner.

she's his wife and he gets paid by hillenbrand - what's your excuse?

too much coffee man is talking about the "proven commodity" principle: so and so has been there, he knows what it takes, et cetera. and it's a huge, huge reason why many of these signings have occurred.

Those two four-armed pitchers for the Reticulans only look good because their AAA affiliate on planet Lovetron played very unfavorably to hitters last year. The effect of ion storms isn't news, or at least it shouldn't be, and I was hoping CHONE would adjust for that.

Great, great analysis of why this stuff occurs. That said, McPherson can hit sort of adequtely against righties, and Stoneman's not stupid, whatever we may think of this signing--so why isn't he finding a lefty masher/ph who can play first base 30-40 games a year?

As my other posts have indicated, I'm not much of a Shea Hillenbrand fan, but I do think that ZiPS is being too hard on him. He's played in "hitters' parks" for almost his whole career, but that doesn't much matter if he doesn't hit any better in them.

Home: 1718 PA, 287/320/447
Away: 1820 PA, 286/329/450

Actually, he was much better at home with Arizona and much better on the road with Boston. In his year and a half in Toronto, his numbers were fairly equivalent at home and away.

Though it's a small sample, Angel Stadium has been his best hitting environment:
57 PA, 389/421/722

He won't come close to matching that, but his career 773 OPS is probably a better estimate than the 735 projected by ZiPS.

I don't like Hillenbrand as a person at all. But I don't get all the hate for him as a hitter. He's not good compared to elite hitters. But he's not that bad either. Medium power, slightly below average OBP, but decent average (he got a lot of rallies going for the Jays the last few years). The DP definitely are definitely something that isn't mentioned much that he is bad at. He's durable too. And considering this market....(however, I do like Craig Wilson and Josh Phelps alot better though...why did the Jays let go of Josh Phelps years ago again?). But there are tons of guys who can hit in this range, fringy MLB players that may make less, but have they really put together those types of numbers for seasons and years at a time? There past experience says no. (guys like Kotchman, Pena, etc. etc.). I guess sometimes its worth it to take a flier on them if they have more upside. But anyway, the guy still eats spam and lives in a trailer I've heard. And he thinks he's one of the top 10 players in baseball.

Arom, what is the relationship between Donnely and Hilenbrand? I think when/if he plays in Toront this year, he'll get booed. But all the other guys, Catalanatto, Speier, will be cheered very muchly.

But I guess if Hillenbrand ever wants to hit more than middling power in a year, he'll have to be playing in a very hitters friendly planet, hopefully with little gravity so the ball just float into space forever. But unfortunately it ain't happening.

It's just hard to figure out what it is about Hillenbrand that makes his perceived value so much higher than that of, say, Eric Hinske. I mean honestly, look at those two players. Hinske and Hillenbrand both play the same positions, and at about the same level of ability. They both make outs at about the same rate and hit for about the same amount of power. Hinske strikes out more, but Hillenbrand grounds into more double plays so pick your poison. I think Hinske is a better baserunner although neither one is fast.

OPS+ Hinske 100, Hillenbrand 99.
EqA Hinske .261, Hillenbrand .259

Hinske is by all accounts a good teammate who's willing to sacrifice his ego for the good of the team (learned two new positions in the last two years with the Jays and didn't complain when he was designated to a utility role). Hillenbrand is by all accounts a jackass who thinks he's an all-star and publicly complains about his playing time on a regular basis.

Yet, it seems like Hillenbrand is always a much sought after player by GM's while Hinske is thought of like a minor leaguer. What am I missing?

He's not good compared to elite hitters. But he's not that bad either.

He's a 1B, a .773 OPS from your 1B is definately below average (whether you use mean or median)- and it's not like he brings anyhing else with him- leadership (no) defense (not really), baserunning (gag), little thngs? (yeah right).

Satchel Paige didn't die--he's still pitching, and for the Aldebaran ß Ham Eater-Fighters (they offer more money than Brian Sabean). Which is why they win it every year, and they're favorites to win it again next year.

I'm telling you, Hillenbrand tips the scales in favor of the Angels. Also, Zipstorn has already clinched the Brinthian league with 2.3 space months left in the season -- they're pretty strong, and they'll practically have home field advantage playing on Xylon-23. I'm expecting the Eater-Fighters be overwhelmed by the crowds consisting almost entirely of 30-armed Zipstornians in sound-amplifying, oxygenless bubbles. Between that, and the gravity change, they're going to have trouble.

Satchel Paige didn't die--he's still pitching, and for the Aldebaran ß Ham Eater-Fighters (they offer more money than Brian Sabean). Which is why they win it every year, and they're favorites to win it again next year.

Interesting that Hillenbrand will make $4M more than Millar next year. Is Hillenbrand better in any way?

I don't think so. I find Millar a bit annoying, but I don't detest him like Hillenbrand, and I think Millar is more willing to fit into a role where he might play a lot or might be a part timer, depending on how other players turn out. The only thing Hillenbrand probably is better at is 3rd base defense, but only because I'd expect Millar to be really bad if forced to play there all the time, and Hillenbrand is bad enough that he should never play 3rd base anyway.

That kind of argument is like asking who'd be worse as a catcher, David Ortiz or Travis Hafner? Answer is you don't ever play either one there.

So, no, as a 1B/DH, Millar is better in every way. Its very sad when the Orioles are making smarter decisions than your team is.

By OPS+, Millar has been the better hitter two out of the last three years, and generally has been since the start of their respective careers, mostly because he's never put up a catastrophic OBP. HIllenbrand is a few years younger. As to their difference, my grasp on the specifics of their abilities couldn't be classified as strong, but the consensus seems to be that they're both butchers, but thaat maybe Hillenbrand is slightly less of a butcher.

I think they break out about equal. Given that Hillenbrand is a slavering ####### while Millar is just a doofus, I'd take Millar. But I wouldn't be terribly happy with either one.

How so? They appear to be about even defensively, and I can't see an argument for Hillenbrand as the better hitter. Hillenbrand certainly doesn't have any clear advantage as a leader or baserunner.

For $2.5M, Millar is actually a pretty useful player, if used correctly. That is, as a backup 1b/dh/rf/ph who gets ~400 PAs. A guy like that on your bench is very valuable. Unfortunately for the Orioles, he's pretty useless as the fulltime 1b. Hillenbrand could be similarly useful IF (a) he was getting only a couple million, and (b) he was on a team that didn't already have 2-3 better options for that role.

Hillenbrand isn't much on the bases either. But we do happen to have a pile of boulders in the stadium. We can use them to pinch run, and when Hillenbrand feels slighted and goes Guillen, we can DFA him out of town.

I think Hillenbrand's reputation is better ability wise for him to command a better contract than Millar. Interesting though, Millar is probably a better player what with equal power and much better OBP numbers.

Looks like ZIPS 2007 projection is more a reflection on Hillenbrand's popularity, rather than his hitting ability. But it won't bother me one iota if he actually puts up this .735 number and the Angels miss the AL playoffs by one game.

It's a mean projection, kwarren. No, the other kind of mean :) Hillenbrand is going to be 31, so I suspect that he stands an excellent chance of falling off the cliff, as well as a decent chance of of not seeing his performance drop off at all. One of the other of those things is probably going to come closer to happening than his projection.

A quick Marcel on Hillenbrand puts him at a 782 OPS. His "Marcel PF" (I love making stuff up) is about 102, so that translates to about a 767 neutral OPS. The Marcel PF of Anaheim is about 96, so that becomes a 736 Anaheim OPS.