Friday, June 20, 2008

Israel Alone

Two articles, one by Allison Kaplan Sommer and Lisa Goldman at Pajamas Media and the other by Caroline Glick at the Jerusalem Post, underscore the exorbitant price that Olmert is now willing to pay for a handful of international legitimacy. It's a telling reminder of just how well the campaign to marginalize what a French ambassador called a "shitty little country" has fared. To gain but a little diplomatic leverage Israel must now mortgage its future.

Caroline describes the unilateral concessions that Olmert has made to Hamas; concessions to deep that even the State Department and the UN are aghast.

Israel's decision to embrace Hamas is so outrageous that even the US State Department apparently hasn't had a chance to get its bearings. Reacting to the news on Wednesday, State Department deputy spokesman Tom Casey said, "Saying you've got a loaded gun to my head but you're not going to fire today is far different from taking the gun down, locking it up, and saying you're not going to use it again." The agreement "hardly takes Hamas out of the terrorism business," Casey added.

The "cease-fire" with Hamas also has direct implications for Judea and Samaria. If Hamas holds its fire for six months, then Israel will be obliged to end its counter-terror operations in Judea and Samaria. That is, if Hamas keeps its powder dry until January, Israel will effectively enable it to assert its control over Judea and Samaria and so place Iran in control of the outskirts of Jerusalem, Kfar Saba, Afula and Netanya.

If the US was aghast at the Olmert-Livni-Barak-Yishai government's capitulation to Hamas, UN officials are aghast at its second asset drop. This week the government conducted its second round of negotiations toward the surrender of the Golan Heights to Syria. Speaking of the surrender talks to a group of Israeli diplomats, Terje Roed-Larsen, the UN Secretary General's Special Envoy for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559, condemned the move, arguing just by holding the negotiations, "Israel has given Syria a huge gift, without thus far receiving anything in exchange."

Giving its enemies gifts without receiving recompense was exactly what Olmert hoped to achieve. The perverted logic behind this strategy is ably explained by Allison Kaplan Sommer.

No one knows exactly when the ceasefire will be violated - whether it is a matter of days, weeks, or months: when the first missile will crack the silence and represent the opening gun to what is expected to be a major military operation in Gaza. The pessimism is based on bitter experience - the Palestinian record on honoring ceasefire agreements is poor, to put it mildly.

So if no one believes it will last, why bother? The overriding reasoning of the Israeli leaders behind the agreement to it is to show that their side everything possible has done to avoid bloodshed - so that when the war in Gaza - which is viewed as inevitable, occurs - the world will know that Israel did all it could.

That, in all its pathetic absurdity, is all that Olmert hopes to purchase at the certain cost of Israeli blood: a baring of the neck to the dagger so that when the "inevitable, occurs - the world will know that Israel did all it could". It's what the Peace Lobby calls 'confidence building'. But the confidence it builds is entirely of the wrong sort. Caroline Glick describes the almost gloating tone in which these pitiful offerings have been received by countries as distant as Iran.

No doubt buoyed by the government's strategic incapacitation, Iran mockingly told the Europeans that it will be happy to consider their European-American offer to build Iran nuclear reactors and normalize relations with it - so long as it is understood that they will accept their largesse while continuing their uranium enrichment activities.

Ironically, even the Peace Lobby is probably convinced that Israel's abject concessions are only likely to increase the likelihood of war. In fact the entire point of its abjection is to eke out whatever sympathy the International Community may deign to give at the moment the thundering freight train of Mars hits Israel. And yet the fact that surrender will increase the perils of war cannot undo the Pavlovian reflex to grovel and grovel yet again.

But in this last, Olmert will have probably have miscalculated . He will get weakness and he will reap war, but Israel will get no sympathy. Sympathy in this hard world is another word for admiration; sympathy was what European diplomats felt when Israel's armies defeated the combined Arab armies in 1967. Then the shitty little country wasn't so shitty. Besides, they bought Mirage fighters from the French and that always counts for something. Today what retreat and capitulation will bring from the capitals of the Old World is contempt.

There is always the danger, when electing appeasers into office, of assuming that when they go too far and overstep, the public will rise up and regain their senses. But that is to forget that each concession they provide the foe increases the cost of recovery until finally sheer hopelessness overcomes indignation. The familiar drama of Britain's recovery from the blunders of Munich often makes us forget that had Britain not been rescued by the America and Hitler's foolish attack into Russia, not even their Finest Hour could have save them from the blessings of Peace In Our Time.

84 Comments:

It's an obvious, relatively undestructive way to avoid getting ourselves into the mutual annihilation game. But again, the Left won't let it happen.

They'll continue to make noises which generally indicate they want the problem solved, but objectively they'll block anything that threatens to solve it. And this leads us to the problem that "expanded deterrence" can never solve. One of the sources of danger is us. Our self-destructing, self-loathing attitudes are exempt from expanded deterrence.

The drama in Israel would seem to be a case in point. However. Minds can change. If Israel follows the Left's proscriptions to letter, to stop only when the logical conclusion is plainly written and legible to all, maybe we can lance this festering nonsense from our collective psyche once and for all.

Communism wasn't defeated with nuclear weapons. It was defeated when its objective results were plain to see by all. Here's hoping for a silver lining.

The familiar drama of Britain's recovery from the blunders of Munich often makes us forget that had Britain not been rescued by the America and Hitler's foolish attack into Russia, not even their Finest Hour could have save them from the blessings of Peace In Our Time.

Yeah, but Hezbollah isn't the Wehrmacht. The Israelis have taken the Golan heights before, and with far inferior technology than what they have today.

It isn't fair that some Israeli soldiers will lose their lives because the Left cannot currently see what it is plain to those who look, but life is never fair.

Secretary Rice at the UN yesterday - blathering on about Mugabe and how the security council is "demanding" an end to political violence .... something so refreshing about the honesty of Hamas - story just up in Haaretz - they have no intention of stopping their arms smuggling (as per the "truce" agreement)- and are willing to say just that

Israel may be a dead nation. When you've lost the will to survive you don't.

The war with Hizbollah two summers ago was a golden opportunity to give Iran a bloody nose. The initial condemnation of Israel's response to rocket attack was pro forma; in fact there was a glee in much of the Arab world that the mighty Israeli military would take on those rock throwing primitive proxies of Iran. In a matter of days that glee reversed itself. Hizbollah held up well, ancient anti-Israeli sentiment kicked in, and there was delight in seeing Israel whipped. And they were whipped. The last day of the war as many rockets landed on Israeli soil as had on any day of the war.

This happened because of the cowardice of the leadership, or so I thought. The only way to prevent the launching of small rockets is to take land. That would have meant a massive movement of troops on the ground, that would have meant many dead soldiers. The leadership couldn't face that, so they bombed. So safe, and they lost. Thank the Lord for Condi Rice. If she hadn't arranged a capitulation Israel would have been defeated on the ground. In three more days --or three more weeks, whatever-- there would have been pictures of Israeli soldiers streaming back to the boarder, not even dragging their rifles, but running; defeated, totally demoralized by lack of leadership.

Or so I thought. The leadership had been so bad I expected that in a matter of days Olmert would be hanging from a lamp post, and the Israelis would be back to forming a warrior government. Didn't happen. He hung on. It may be that the Israelis, after so many decades of contempt from so much of the world, have simply lost their belief that they deserve to exist. Perhaps they're all just waiting for the moment when they all start their new Diaspora.

And Olmert's present "strategy"? He's an old man. He just wants to live another day. And at the end of that day there will be no battle --after Israel has shown "it's done all it can do." There will merely be a new capitulation.

They have an odd form of govt that guarantees that the leaders of the country are from different political parties and that minor political parties have an influence far beyond their ability to garner votes at the ballot box. Their govts fall on a regular basis. This happens in an orderly fashion but it really makes it hard for a govt to make difficult decisions and to lead for the long term.

The 2006 war is a prime example. The govt was led by a PM who had no military experience and a defense minister from another party who also had no military experience. The third important leader was the military chief of staff who was an air force general who didn't have much idea of the value of a land attack. It was a perfect storm of incompetence that caused the poor results.

There were other failures as well but I believe that with good leadership Israel could have come out much better in that war. There's no reason that Israel shouldn't have been prepared to go all in to hurt greatly or destroy Hez. Instead they did the minimum and the few gains they did make are eroding.

There are also many things that Israel could have been doing to stop the rocket fire from Gaza so that Hamas would be begging for a cease-fire rather than the current situation.

I think some are reading WAY too much into this. I don't see a problem for Israel here. It can break the agreement whenever it chooses. In fact, that's exactly the prescription needed. If I was advising the Israeli gov, I'd advocate exactly that. Keep signing on to these and keep breaking them mercilessly whenever it's convenient.

Utopia Parkway said...The govt was led by a PM who had no military experience and a defense minister from another party who also had no military experience. The third important leader was the military chief of staff who was an air force general who didn't have much idea of the value of a land attack.

So? You don't need military experience to turn to your Generals and say "Here's a sword. Win this war for me." Do not spare the men who fight.

Mətušélaḥ said...I think some are reading WAY too much into this. I don't see a problem for Israel here. It can break the agreement whenever it chooses. In fact, that's exactly the prescription needed. If I was advising the Israeli gov, I'd advocate exactly that. Keep signing on to these and keep breaking them mercilessly whenever it's convenient.

Oh, you mean "Hudna." If you can't beat 'em, join 'em, eh?

No thanks. The West has moved to higher and better forms of strategy than Hudna. Israel isn't making this pact so it can break it, it's making the pact to prove that Hamas is incapable of being dealt with even in the "best case" situations.

If Olmert is still in his position, and still making deals with the devil, then I must conclude it is because a majority of Israeli's want him to do so.

Therefore, I conclude that the nation of warriors is not any more and it's just a matter of time until a whole bunch of ex-Israeli's come knocking on our doors asking for asylum because between Hizbollah and Hamas, they've given away everything they had built up, including their safety and security.

That's alright, though. Maybe they'll make good Americans if we can just keep the Olmert/appeasers out.

Many people said the same thing when Gaza was abandoned. Sadly, while the play in Gaza was obvious to some as a brilliant strategy, the strategist was felled with a coma, and an incompetent, not knowing or comprehending the nature of the game, took over.

So now, we see the same game being played, again. One of the great strategists disciples must have sat the incompetent PM down, explained the game to him. Assume that the various game scenarios were played out.

Israel wins in every case, as long as the game is played properly to finality. The danger is not having the testicular fortitude to see this game to its conclusion.

First case: Hamas and the 'palis' do violate the cease fire. This is a guaranteed certainty. Their hatred of jews is such that they cannot contain themselves, even when it is in their best interests to do so. Israel must document this clearly, and specifically, and take appropriate action. This action will need to be brutal and swift. Israel must turn a deaf ear to the condemnation that will inevitably occur from the collective world that despises it so.

At the end of the action, Israel will need to demand that the UN resettle the 'palis', as the UNRWA and related agencies of the UN only perpetuate the problem. Israel and the US, and other freedom loving nations must demand that the UNRWA be disbanded, as they would have aided the 'palis' in their effort against a member country and democracy. Israel must file complaints in the International Criminal Court against all the leaders of the terrorist groups, and demand that they be brought to account for their crimes specifically of targeting non-combatant populations.

Israel wins, enemy is demoralized, and devastated. Only Israel cannot stop this game midway through, and change its tactics. It must play it out to finality, including the requisite legal/political theatre. Failure to do so would be a loss for Israel, and would demoralize those who wish to defend that great land.

Second case: The 'palis' beat their swords into plowshares. This has got a snowball's chance in hell of actually occuring. If they become civilized people in the next 6 months, then how is this a loss? A peaceful neighbor?

Again, the game must be played out to finality. It must not be exited or altered before the goal is achieved.

The goal of this game is either to demonstrate that the 'palis' are completely incapable of living and acting peacefully, or even in their own best interests, or to have them magically forget their culture and history of violence, and become a peaceloving and beneficial neighbor overnight.

I am worried about the game. Because it is being played by a corrupt and incompetent PM. Who may, no, will likely make a mistake in running the game. And will be more interested in CYA than in fixing his mistake.

The game in Gaza was the same. But Sharon was felled with a stroke, and game play went to someone who was ill equipped to capitalize upon the games features.

Israel needs a new PM now. As in within a week or two, to make sure that the game is properly played. Not a lefty clueless peacenik. A PM with a set of brass cahones that can deal with the stress and strain of the game.

This game can be the end game. It just needs to be played right. The current leadership doesn't appear to be capable of doing this. That is my concern.

It is frustrating to live in a time when two great nations, one very tiny, and the other very large and powerful, have such irrational self-hatred and and unwillingness to be warriors and defend not just themselves, but all of human civilization.

The Left and the seductions of hedonism have eroded out our cores. Until we recover a sense of our spiritual identities, we will not be able to impose our will on the Ummah.

Forget about the leaders. It's really about the people. We are supposed to be the lions who stand on solid rock.

Excuse me, I have had quite enough of the Michael Ledeens of this world bashing the U.S. State Department.

It is Israel that waged an indecisive war against Hezboallah in 2006.

It is Israel that allows itself to be bombarded by Hamas.

It is Israel that refuses real world training of its IDF, once the pride of the Middle East. I suspect today that the Iraqi 1st Infantry Division, trained by the Americans, could give the Golani Brigade a very hard time of it in an urban setting.

And most damning, it is Israel, that is a democracy and gets the kind of government it deserves. Two years after the humiliation of Lebanon, and the government of fixers is still in power.

What does the United States owe an Israel that will not mind its own store?

The Caroline Glicks of this world have been attacking Condi Rice for her diplomacy in the Middle East. I ask you, what responsibility does this Administration have toward an Israel whose body politic has no apparent backbone. That will tolerate continued bombardment of her own citizens in towns like Sderot?

Compare the performance of the IDF with the United States Army and Marine Corps. There's simply no comparison. We found what was wrong in Iraq, corrected it, and reformed. As a result, we took down Al Qaeda's premier fighting force and have annihilated bin Laden's best men. The Israeli performance in 2006 is pathetic in comparison to our own. And I see no signs that the Government has taken the requisite emergency training to reform the IDF Ground Forces from the bottom up and prepare them for a general regional war.

The Israelis have grown soft and weak. Our diplomacy is based on that proposition: that today's Israel is not the Israel of 1967 and 1973-the Israel of Heroes. That's what no one seems to get here.

Israel will be worth defending again when Israel earns her way back into respect. There's only one way to earn that respect: on the battlefield!

That's the only thing the Iranians, the Hezboallim, and our friends in Hamas understand.

I agree that the Israelis have only themselves to blame for most of what has happened recently. They are a democracy and the majority of Israelis would give away everything but their own abode and their car to obtain a peace agreement. Any peace agreement.

Having sad that, I can also say that US Middle-East policy is on a roller coaster ride. The President says one thing, the State Department does another.

The US, and the other members of the Quartet, has been pushing Israel to sign a peace agreement with parties who do not want peace. They want a time-out so they can re-group, re-arm and continue the fight.

The fairy tale about the Palestinian Authority being the part of peace as opposed to Hamas. Rice just came out with some kind words for Hamas.

How delicious. A dry run of the Iran bombing raid over Greece, while at the same time the Egyptians have been roped in to 'a binding peace agreement'. They're starving, remember? Then Tom Casey hams it up.

It's win win for Israel - if Hamas breaks, their toast, if it doesn't break, Israel has stopped the rockets.

Everybody knows that Hamas will do the scorpion - it's in its nature, it has a death wish.

This is Israel's drive to the coast. The end game, a gambit - Queen to g8.

Gorgeous, almost as orgasmic as watching the left cozy up to the Head Hackers.

section9 said...Excuse me, I have had quite enough of the Michael Ledeens of this world bashing the U.S. State Department.

The US state dept is world of Arab Loving retards...

section9 said...It is Israel that waged an indecisive war against Hezboallah in 2006.

Let's see... Israel cost southern lebanon 30 years of development, 3 billion, over 1000 dead including how many hezbollah? exposed to the world iran's forward position...

so was it "indecisive"? look at the WORLD's support for israel attacking lebanon! the world, including the MANY sunni arab states SUPPORTED israel's actions...

summer of 2006 actually was a great learning opportunity for the USA and Israel on learning Iran's abilities.

section9 said...It is Israel that allows itself to be bombarded by Hamas.

Yes and if you took a trip back in time you will find that israel USED to be hauled up in the UN for bull dozing an empty house sitting on a tunnel in rafah, now Israel can launch jets and missiles hits without a PEEP from anyone, over 350 hamas "terrorists" have been taken out....

Is it a good situation for israel to allow rockets to be shoot at? nope, is israel doing nothing?

section9 said...It is Israel that refuses real world training of its IDF, once the pride of the Middle East. I suspect today that the Iraqi 1st Infantry Division, trained by the Americans, could give the Golani Brigade a very hard time of it in an urban setting.

you'd be mistaken, you forget that it was the IDF that helped the USA train for urban combat in iraq...

you forget how the IDF goes into jenin, gaza ON A DAILY BASIS and takes out specific terrorists without losing a man.

section9 said...And most damning, it is Israel, that is a democracy and gets the kind of government it deserves. Two years after the humiliation of Lebanon, and the government of fixers is still in power.

Humiliation? your buying into the what Israel wants it's enemies to believe... Hezbollah's chief rat actually stated that if he had KNOWN what israel would have done he'd not done the kidnapping...

What is funny is how people who dont have a clue, like yourself, seem to think they understand Israel and the arabs.

Hezbollah BEFORE the summer war, threatened to burn half of israel with it's rockets...

In the end, Iran (hezbollah) with all the BILLIONS spent on bunkers, launchers, troops and training killed 44 israelis (13 of whom were arabs) by shooting 10,000 rockets thus proving their complete impotence as a true fighting force. So in the end, Iran spends another 4 billion and provides hezbollah with 40,000 rockets, new bunkers and weapons (in complete violation of the UN ceasefire that hezbollah begged for. And what do they do? they attack their fellow lebanese...

impotence What does the United States owe an Israel that will not mind its own store?

shhh.. dont read the reports of what israel did in syria last year... shhh dont want your head to implode... shhh dont read about what israel has done with it's economy, it's actual democracy.... shhh dont read and learn....

Section 9....The Caroline Glicks of this world have been attacking Condi Rice for her diplomacy in the Middle East. I ask you, what responsibility does this Administration have toward an Israel whose body politic has no apparent backbone. That will tolerate continued bombardment of her own citizens in towns like Sderot?

Condi's position, at the direction of POTUS has been disgusting. Under Bush, the USA has changed policy and advocated a Palio state for the 1st time... As a reaction to no real chances of peace with the arabs, israel (which you say has no backbone) has just announced another 40,000 homes in Jerusalem.... No backbone? arabs fire rockets? Jews BUILD HOMES...

section 9...Compare the performance of the IDF with the United States Army and Marine Corps. There's simply no comparison. We found what was wrong in Iraq, corrected it, and reformed. As a result, we took down Al Qaeda's premier fighting force and have annihilated bin Laden's best men. The Israeli performance in 2006 is pathetic in comparison to our own. And I see no signs that the Government has taken the requisite emergency training to reform the IDF Ground Forces from the bottom up and prepare them for a general regional war.

you are blind....

section 9 ...The Israelis have grown soft and weak. Our diplomacy is based on that proposition: that today's Israel is not the Israel of 1967 and 1973-the Israel of Heroes. That's what no one seems to get here.

you are deluded.....

section 9....Israel will be worth defending again when Israel earns her way back into respect. There's only one way to earn that respect: on the battlefield!

Might i suggest you take a trip to southern lebanon? take a drive to gaza?

Israel hits terrorists riding bikes.... Israel CAN do a hiroshima if it needs to...

section 9/...That's the only thing the Iranians, the Hezboallim, and our friends in Hamas understand.

i agree...

however hamas is not going to destroy israel, Iran could actually try to.

section9 said... Excuse me, I have had quite enough of the Michael Ledeens of this world bashing the U.S. State Department.

Well, after reading well into Douglas Feith's account of the runup to the Iraqi regime change, it seems quite clear that the State Department - along with the CIA - considers itself exempt from policy set by an elected Executive. So both agencies exert themselves from time to time in opposition to that Executive, and play loose cannon with foreign affairs. And both richly deserve whatever light Michael Ledeen can shine on their malfeasances.

The Israeli media is more leftist than ours. Their political scientists and lawyers are mostly lefties. The old left of the kibbutz movement were pragmatists but their grand children live in the cities and consider themselves to be citizens of the "world". But the professional military is hard nosed. Israelis are now waiting for the next election. The Israeli military built an experimental town in the south near Beersheva to train assault troops in urban warfare. They use some interesting electronics for gaining quick intel. The leftist parties cut the defense budget because that is part of the leftist ideology. What we can learn here is that leftism can cause people to ignore obvious threats to ones family and friends. If the reader can have a conversation with a typical Israeli professor you will see what I am getting at.

Fred: The Left and the seductions of hedonism have eroded out our cores. Until we recover a sense of our spiritual identities, we will not be able to impose our will on the Ummah.

Not spiritual identity - that is my business - but civic identity as a citizen of a sovereign nation-state founded on principles in which I believe and am prepared to defend against any threat. That’s too turgid for a sound bite but the talented can shorten it up.

I think this is more than a semantic quibble. Obviously we have both spiritual life and material life but the civic identity is disappearing as globalization transforms nation-states into economic states. Fairly large body of work describing this transformation (Empire by Hardt and Negri).

B. Hussein is trying to propagate the mime that he is already president (resitance is futile so just give up and let him win). The MSM seems quite happy to follow suite. However I think Hussein is being a little too clever.

His prime failure mode is for the nation to collectively realize that he's not the messiah but merely a crypto-marxist. So long as he is perceived as this totally new utopian force for change then the scales will remain on many people's eyes. The trick is to get people to think to the next step, i.e. What happens after Hussein has been elected President? Going through that thought process should break the hypnotic spell for most people.

What surprises me about this election - aside from everything - is the strength of the hero-worship in the general population. When Caroline Kennedy resurrected Camelot, I internally smirked because I was sure that would be the Kiss of Death. Americans too cynical to re-enter the Magic Kingdom.

Boy, did I miscall that one.

Or not. The general population has yet to vote.

I would much rather be dissecting this guy as a politician rather than as a god.

"What we need in America, especially in the African-American community, is a moral agenda that is tied to a concrete agenda for building and rebuilding our communities," he said. "We have moved beyond the clarion call stage that was needed during the civil rights movement. Now, like Nelson Mandela in South Africa, we must move into a building stage. We must invest our energy and resources in a massive rebuilding effort and invent new mechanisms to strengthen and hasten this community-building effort.

"We have no shortage of moral fervor," said Obama. "We have some wonderful preachers in town--preachers who continue to inspire me--preachers who are magnificent at articulating a vision of the world as it should be. In every church on Sunday in the African-American community we have this moral fervor; we have energy to burn.

"But as soon as church lets out, the energy dissipates. We must find ways to channel all this energy into community building. The biggest failure of the civil rights movement was in failing to translate this energy, this moral fervor, into creating lasting institutions and organizational structures." ---"Three major doubts have been raised," he said. The first is whether in today's political environment--with its emphasis on media and money--a grass-roots movement can even be created. Will people still answer the call of participatory politics?

Barack Obama has worked on political reform more than any other issue.

He aspires to be to political reform what Bono is to fighting disease in Africa. He’s spent much of his career talking about how much he believes in public financing.

In January 2007, he told Larry King that the public-financing system works.

In February 2007, he challenged Republicans to limit their spending and vowed to do so along with them if he were the nominee.

In February 2008, he said he would aggressively pursue spending limits. He answered a Midwest Democracy Network questionnaire by reminding everyone that he has been a longtime advocate of the public-financing system.

A couple of weeks ago I noticed that something akin to the Children's pop-up book had become my preferred form of political discourse. Then last week I saw a foreign policy guru talk of the "Winnie the Pooh" test for U.S. Security policy. I tried to find validation in this but there was none. First, "Winnie the Pooh" ain't exactly "Cat in the Hat." And I always thought there might be some scatological reference in there I don't know pooh. Besides, it was a Clinton Guy talking and who can believe them?

After 9/11 I thought it was all going to be epic poetry but the Democrats wore me down. But that's OK. I can't do epic poetry anyway. OK, the pop-up book thing needs work, too.

Look, "Occupation", you can look at Israel's performance in Southern Lebanon and see "nothing's wrong here" and pretend that all is well.

You're living in a fool's paradise.

The IDF walked right into a trap, sent there by a feckless, indecisive Olmert Government that could not decide between war and peace.

If Israel did so well, why is Hezboallah back in business with more missiles, more missile emplacements, and just as many troops? The evidence suggests that Israel didn't do so well.

Contrast the hideously poor performance of the IDF with our own performance in Anbar, Diyala, and Nineveh province. We adjusted to our enemy and destroyed him. The Israelis underestimated their enemy and were suprised by him.

No amount of bitching about the U.S. State Department will alter this reality. At present, Israel has chosen a path of appeasement. This will remain in place until the Olmert Government falls.

Iran threatens Israel precisely because the Ayatollahs perceive that Israel is led by weak and indecisive men. They also believe that Israel has gone soft. I pray this is not true. If it is, we can't graft backbone onto that society.

Much as I would like to support "Occupation's" optimistic point of view over the performance of Israel's military the past year or so, to me the facts on the ground support the reality of section9's response.

Israel seems to be schizophrenic in that their airforce is up to speed, up to date, and able to take out Syrian nuclear installations.

On the other hand, their ground forces are capable of ramming through a bunch of rock-throwing Palestinians routinely to blow up this shack or that shanty, and that's about it.

I'm not sure who's responsible for their predator drones that zero in and kill terrorists in cars, but those guys and gals seem to also have their act together.

Israel's excursion into Lebanon was a failure and a humiliation. The fact that the Israeli people have not removed the politicians responsible for that failure and humiliation is even scarier. I still want Israel as an ally, but is the time coming when we'll see pictures of them being taken captive by a boatload of Persians without firing and shot, and then paraded around in Kruschev-looking suits on Al-Jazeera while Olmert agrees to whatever insane demands are being put to him to get them back?

The video showed an insurgent who had escaped attack and hid in a courtyard a few feet from a grazing mule. It then showed Apache helicopter fire killing the insurgent, while the mule was left grazing beside the corpse.

What you're also forgetting is that Christian Lebanese gave shelter to retreating Hezzbbollah forces, both politically and physically. For Israel to move any further would have meant taking out Christian villages.

That said, there's no question that on a tactical level, Halutz and some of the lesser army commanders performed on a subpar level, but these fellows are now gone, and Olmert hasn't a long time at his position either.

Oh, Methuselah - you're so cute when you're playing pink, dumb and coy.

The difference is that we're still after bin Laden - he's a dead man walking, he has *not* re-armed, he has lost support among fellow Muslims, he doesn't have blue UN Smurfs watching benevolently over his actions, and - most importantly - he hasn't done it again.

In other words, even if he is not dead, which he very well could be, we've caused him a lot of pain and grief and misery and embarrassment. Which I just can't see that Olmert and/or Israel has caused Hizbollah.

I would compare the performance of the IDF infantry efforts in Southern Lebanon against the entrenched Hizb'allah forces, to a certain extent, with how our forces had to suck it up against the entrenched German positions on Omaha Beach or the Marines against an even more entrenched enemy at Iwo Jima.

Ground fighting is ugly and messy. That's why infantrymen are called Grunts. The Israeli political leadership and military leadership were not up to their historical standards. To do what had to be done, one had to do two things:

1. Pretty much ignore the world press. Tell it that fighting a war is ugly business and to STFU.

2. Accept the fact that bombing from the air is not always going to cut it. Put your head down. Tell the boys it's not an easy task and that they will be bloodied, but that they would bloody the enemy even more.

"Ground fighting is ugly and messy. That's why infantrymen are called Grunts."

Fred, you're behind the times. Thermal and x-ray scatter radiation can tell you exactly where the enemy is lying in wait. Israel has these technologies and instead sent its boys on house-to-house clearing missions when the obvious solution would have been to clear the hideouts with artillery. It was an idiotic performance from every which perspective one cares to look at.

Tora Bora was "thoroughly planned"? According to what expert are you quoting?

I'm pretty sure that I've read in a couple of different places that a major problem with Tora Bora is that the American troops were depending upon untrained, unvetted Afghan fighters who broke and ran and allowed bin Laden to escape through where they were supposed to be holding the line.

Relying on Afghans to have your back at that early stage of the game does *not* sound like very "thorough" planning to me. It's almost as insane as pushing into Hizbollah territory and being in a position to take the whole deck of cards, and then retreating.

I have to believe your riposte was just hurted feelings and you didn't logically and scientifically mean to compare the two occasions.

"Relying on Afghans to have your back at that early stage of the game does *not* sound like very "thorough" planning to me."

Nevertheless, that was the plan. They had many days weeks and months at it, and that was what they came up with. Now compare that with the Israeli situation, where the only real directive was that of placating Doc Rice.

FWIW, Israel had no excuse not to have a full and complete plan to vanquish Hez. The provocation that started the war was not the first of its kind. Hez had made previous unsuccessful attempts to kidnap soldiers along the border. Naz had made plenty of statements that he would continue to attempt to kidnap soldiers because it was the only way he could achieve the return of Lebanese held by Israel. Hez had fired rockets into Israel on numerous occasions since the 2000 withdrawal.

Israel too had recognized that Hez had all these rockets in Lebanon and I remember reading various statements by Israeli generals that they would know how to neutralize those rockets when given the chance. There had been threats made that Israel would send Leb back twenty years if they dared attack Israel and these threats were repeated in the first few days of the war. They were only partly carried out.

The events that started the war were predictable and there should have been a carefully planned response.

I assumed at the time that Israel did have a complete plan on the shelf to attack Hez and do it grave harm. I can't understand why they wouldn't have such a plan and I can't understand why if they did have one it wasn't followed.

Today Hez is reported to have 40000 short and medium range rockets. What will Israel do on the day they start firing those rockets? I'm not sure but I hope they have a plan to vanquish Hez at that time. If the 2006 war had ended differently maybe those rockets wouldn't be pointed at Israel today.

The negotiations to exchange the two kidnapped soldiers for Leb prisoners held in Israel is reported to be at an advanced stage. It's hard to view this as a success for Israel, not to mention what was the point of the war if Israel was going to negotiate for their release anyway.

This article also reports on an unhappiness and malaise in Israel today over their predicament of bad leadership.

People miss that the great threat to Israel is not Hamas or Hez or even Iran. It is another oil embargo. All the talk of shitty little Hez, Hamas skirmishes doesn't erase the true existiential threats of demographics, pariah status, and being choked to death if oil is cut off.

In 1973, Israel still had dozens of nations that were it's allies, and the US, only getting 30% of it's oil in imports was able to keep Israel alive through:

1. Supply oil even though we got embargoed in consequence.2. Provide resupply, including critically needed ECM equipment and anti-tank rounds.3. Nixon was willing to risk the lives of Americans to go to DEFCON 2 and face down the Soviets from joining with Egyptian Forces.

Now? We have 70% dependence on imports so Israel might be out of luck and as Wretchard says:

...the exorbitant price that Olmert is now willing to pay for a handful of international legitimacy. It's a telling reminder of just how well the campaign to marginalize what a French ambassador called a "shitty little country" has fared. To gain but a little diplomatic leverage Israel must now mortgage its future.

Israel did some incredibly arrogant and ham-handed things after 1973. It began aggressive colonization of occupied territory, claimed control of the water, electricity, and legal system in the West Bank and Gaza. It was using Army snipers for shooting Israeli-Arabs during labor strikes. The Pals during early protests were whipped and beaten.The arrogant attitude of Israel, its support of Apartheid S Africa and providing security and weapons to dictators went down badly until Israel was down to just one country which it had cultivated assiduously for decades. That country, the USA, then suffered a big loss of credibility and prestige as others saw it's Congress basically bribed by wealthy Zionists and not to be trusted because it was just Israel's UN rubberstamp and money-dispensing Golem.

Then the Left in the USA began to become disaffected with Israel, joining the paleocons....and of course suffered further when the citizenry slowly began realizing that terrorism has more to do with upper and middle class Arabs hating us for our uncritical support of what Israel wants, not hating us for our "freedoms". And that powerful Jews were most influential in getting us into Iraq.

The situation is that Israel has lost all international support except for the US and it is unlikely to recoup any of it anytime soon as Zionist Settlements continue to spread into the West Bank. And within the US, a growing portion of voters resent Jewish wealth and lack of loyalty to the US, wars on Christian expression started by Jewish lawsuits, AIPAC control of Congress, our eroding position overseas from being seen as Israel's puppet. Christian Zionists begin to wonder what the alliance with real Zionists is worth when Jewish leftists detest every other belief Christian Zionists have.And the disproportionate role of Jews in Wall Street scandals, social engineering schemes that use courts to bypass democratic votes really hurts. As does Jewish transnationalism expressed in globalism and saying International Law replaces US law and voter's choices.

So Israel must finally desperately fight its marginalization. The US is a declining power, economically, a debtor nation rife with decay and ossified institutions....with each year less and less likely to want to see Americans killed to defend a foreign country or suffer economic collapse in a catastrophic oil embargo.

Time is not on Israel's side. It must end right of return, abandon most it's colonies, and draw up Final Borders.

I'm not even sure in 10-20 years, that the US would accept millions of Jewish refugees if Israel fell. It depends on whether or not the American public views the last 50 years or so of Jewish litigation, leftist organizations, dominant role in media and finance as a good or bad net thing...

I assumed at the time that Israel did have a complete plan on the shelf to attack Hez and do it grave harm. I can't understand why they wouldn't have such a plan and I can't understand why if they did have one it wasn't followed.

Israel did have a plan...

however the number of israeli deaths due to hezbollah's 10,000 rockets was less than on suicide bomber (39). A massive ground invasion of tens of thousands of troops with the prediction of thousands of idf deaths was not justified. Nor would the world allow it. Recall if you can, israel send warnings and leaflets to the southern lebonese to get out before coming in and still israel was scolded how disproportionate her response was....

you cant have it both ways...

sure i'd love to see israel bomb the shit out of OCCUPIED hezbollah strong holds but the fact was israel went out of their way NOT to cause civilian deaths

just look at gaza, 4000 rockets and what 5 deaths? the world calls the rockets homemade and calls israel's stopping oil shipments (when under attack) as a crime...

sorry the world demands jews to bleed before they can punch back....

hezbollah with all their rockets sucked at killing jews... thus Israel was not allowed to really attack

30 days of fighting? If israel fought like hezbollah or hamas they would kill 10,000 in a day,,,

I see C4 has crawled out from his klan summer camp long enough to post!

cedarford said...People miss that the great threat to Israel is not Hamas or Hez or even Iran.

It's iran

cedarford said... It is another oil embargo. All the talk of shitty little Hez, Hamas skirmishes doesn't erase the true existiential threats of demographics, pariah status, and being choked to death if oil is cut off.

at $140 a barrel there is no shortage anywhere in the world that will sell oil. embargo? what was that price of oil in 1973?

cedarford said...In 1973, Israel still had dozens of nations that were it's allies

and today, 35 years later Israel has MORE nations than ever in her history that support her whereas in 1973 if israel farted wrong it would be land her infront of a UN that approved the zionism is racism canard....

times have changed, sadly C4 is living in 1973 still

C4 said: 30% of it's oil in imports was able to keep Israel alive through:1. Supply oil even though we got embargoed in consequence.2. Provide resupply, including critically needed ECM equipment and anti-tank rounds.3. Nixon was willing to risk the lives of Americans to go to DEFCON 2 and face down the Soviets from joining with Egyptian Forces.

so true...

now the soviets are gone and 35 years later israel has much of it's own domestic weapons production.

c4: Now? We have 70% dependence on imports so Israel might be out of luck and as Wretchard says:

...the exorbitant price that Olmert is now willing to pay for a handful of international legitimacy. It's a telling reminder of just how well the campaign to marginalize what a French ambassador called a "shitty little country" has fared. To gain but a little diplomatic leverage Israel must now mortgage its future.

nicely taken out of context...

Israel when it comes to HAMAS let's look at your words "All the talk of shitty little Hez, Hamas skirmishes doesn't erase the true existiential threats of demographics" the agreement that Israel has walked into with hamas is NOT an existiential agreement.....

c4: Israel did some incredibly arrogant and ham-handed things after 1973. It began aggressive colonization of occupied territory

excuse me, it's disputed territory or liberated to be exact...

c4: claimed control of the water, electricity, and legal system in the West Bank and Gaza.

you mean the electric and water systems that they infact BUILT?

are you referring to the legal system that jordan abandoned?

this was not done in a vacuum... after all the arabs had the west bank and gaza for decades and never created a palestinian state...

c4: It was using Army snipers for shooting Israeli-Arabs during labor strikes.

labor strikes or violent rioting?

c4: The Pals during early protests were whipped and beaten.

and in jordan, egypt and syria they were murdered.. but alias what is wrong with beating and whipping those with fire bombs and guns attacking you? i know c4 your a saint and when they riot and fire bomb your family you just sit and sing kumbaya....The arrogant attitude of Israel, its support of

c4: Apartheid S Africa and providing security and weapons

got to throw in the apartheid thingy... yep the big bad israelis sold weapons to the africaners so what?

c4: to dictators went down badly until Israel was down to just one country which it had cultivated assiduously for decades. That country, the USA, then suffered a big loss of credibility and prestige as others saw it's Congress basically bribed by wealthy Zionists and not to be trusted because it was just Israel's UN rubberstamp and money-dispensing Golem.

nice except for the small fact that israel, unlike any other nation in the world has zero'd out it's economic aid at their own request and the military increase is only because the arabs & persians are waging war... now you want to talk cash?

israel used to get about 3 billion TOTAL a year thruout the 80's...

america spends about 110 billion a year on natoamerica gives the arabs (egypt, jordan and palestinians) over 4 billion a year

america's aid to israel actually is quite small and in the end over 70% of that aid is spent in america buying those mobil homes for jews to live in that you hate so much

c4: Then the Left in the USA began to become disaffected with Israel, joining the paleocons....and of course suffered further when the citizenry slowly began realizing that terrorism has more to do with upper and middle class Arabs hating us for our uncritical support of what Israel wants, not hating us for our "freedoms".

ah.... the islamic world hates us for israel...

israel that takes up less than .9/650th of the middle east, where israel has 20% arab population that is overwhelmingly peaceful, israel is the root of all evil?

And what does israel want?

israel wants a 2 state solution and has offered as much...

Israel has withdrawn from lebanon (UN certified) and Gaza and what have the palios and arabs done? they have declared war....

even now, israel has offered 97% of the west bank, land swaps, 1/2 of jerusalem and still you argue that israel is land grabbing and growing...

israel has returned 99.99% of all disputed lands...

do you remember the sinai?

RETURNED

GAZA

RETURNED

LEBANON RETURNED

West Bank? UNDER FATAH CONTROL

the areas of land that are in dispute are less than 20 square miles...

c4: And that powerful Jews were most influential in getting us into Iraq.

c4: The situation is that Israel has lost all international support except for the US and it is unlikely to recoup any of it anytime soon as Zionist Settlements continue to spread into the West Bank.

wrong... the world INCLUDING MANY SUNNI arab nations are opening trade and development with israel and as for your "zionist settlements spreading" again, within an area of 20 square miles big fucking deal

c4: And within the US, a growing portion of voters resent Jewish wealth and lack of loyalty to the US,

yawn....

c4: wars on Christian expression started by Jewish lawsuits,

it's the joooos

c4: AIPAC control of Congress

we are everywhere, btw if we are so powerful why are you not arrested, beaten and whipped?

c4, our eroding position overseas from being seen as Israel's puppet. Christian Zionists begin to wonder what the alliance with real Zionists is worth when Jewish leftists detest every other belief Christian Zionists have.

yawn................

c4: And the disproportionate role of Jews in Wall Street scandals, social engineering schemes that use courts to bypass democratic votes really hurts.

the jooos are coming the jooos are coming

c4: As does Jewish transnationalism expressed in globalism and saying International Law replaces US law and voter's choices.

do you spend all your time at aryan nation or just your afternoons?

c4: Time is not on Israel's side. It must end right of return, abandon most it's colonies, and draw up Final Borders.

sorry israel has the right, just as every other nation to accept citizens, it's already given up "most" of it's settlements that it is going to and you are correct, draw it's own borders

c4: I'm not even sure in 10-20 years, that the US would accept millions of Jewish refugees if Israel fell.

this is why we dont listen to you and will continue to keep israel strong...

c4:It depends on whether or not the American public views the last 50 years or so of Jewish litigation, leftist organizations, dominant role in media and finance as a good or bad net thing...

america failed back during ww2 to save jews that landed on her shore that numbered in the thousands, not millions and this was BEFORE all the crap you stated

so again c4 thanks for your visit, please get some prozac or better why not just go check your closet and under your bed, i hear there are jooos hiding there

Barak as Tootsie:Ehud Barak ---"As a young commando, Ehud Barak placed a woman's wig on his head, squeezed into high heels and stuffed an oversized purse with explosives as he set off on a derring-do -- and ultimately successful -- mission to eliminate a Palestinian terrorist cell in Beirut."

What mat and WiO cannot see, or, refuse to see, stubbornly refuse to admit, is the inflitration of Jews into wheat farming all across our great nation. This, this is the woeful untold story of our times.

I call bullshit. I'm remembering both Bush and Rice treading water furiously, with her on a plane flying around the world for a week or two where the press couldn't get at her, giving the Israeli's time to do their thing.

The Israeli's absolutely had the White House's backing on their efforts ... and chose to retreat. In the "world", who else matters? You're telling me that either Russia or China gives a tinker's damn what happens to a bunch of terrorists in Beirut? And if Europe's left screams and squalls and tantrums, so what? They got nothing. Neither does Canada. And don't even talk to me about Indonesia, South America, or Africa. EVERYone in point of fact ignores the UN any more.

I cannot believe that Israel chose to give up its security in exchange for a perceived popularity contest. That is just ... bullshit.

Hdgreene: Here is an attempt at explaining the Winnie the Pooh test for SECSTATE.

When I was at the Pentagon my boss had a framed item on his wall that featured Winnie the Pooh. It said that each morning Christopher Robin walked down the stairs dragging his teddy bear doll Winnie the Pooh by one of the doll’s hind legs. And so Winnie went down the stairs on his head each morning, bump, bump, bump. And Winnie was pretty sure that he could figure out a better way to get down the stairs if he could just stop bumping long enough to be able to give it some thought.

That describes the SECSTATE job quite well, especially in regards to the Middle East. You have to go down the stairs on your head, bump, bump, bump and you can’t stop bumping along long enough to figure out a better way – in fact you are not supposed to.

So for SECSTATE the Dems want someone like Warren Christopher Robin, who will just bump along, talking fruitlessly to Hamas, Hezbolah, Syria, and Iran - doing it the wrong way because it is what expected of him and not stopping bumping long enough to realize that it’s all a waste of time.

Or as Peggy Noonan put it about John Kerry: “On foreign policy he would surround himself with bright people, and they would study each problem very carefully and then they would do nothing, because the only reasonable thing to do would be what the Republicans would do, and they can’t do that.”

Whenever I worry about the fate of Israel or the Jews, I turn to the posts of C-fudd and find them welcome and comforting. He consistently reminds us all why Jews have survived for 4000 years - because their enemies are such always such crew of pathetic ignoramuses and losers. In the "Thinking the Unthinkable" thread, for instance, he came out with his usual pompous flatulence that fools some into thinking he has actual knowledge, and was soon torn apart by someone who actully knew what he was talking about. To say nothing of Israel's Arab enemies, who although they outnumber Israel 50 to 1, have boundless oil wealth, and laughingly acoording to C-fudd have more "heart and courage" have been unable to anything but get their sorry butts kicked by Israel for 60 years.

C'mon, Fudd, tell us how much "heart and courage" it takes to use your people as human shields by launching rockets from residential areas or to send retarded teenage kids out as suicide bombers. That's C-fudd's idea of heart and courage.

Four bolts snapped and a wheel blew, hitting Blake in the face and tearing it apart. He does not remember anything about the accident — he tells the story as it was told to him later — but the damage was so devastating that others could see part of his brain.

“The cool part is that I know I’ve got one now,” he said Friday, smiling.

Oh, one thing I want to put on the record is that I had my great seal before Sen. Obama had his great seal. His is based on the President's seal and mine based on the Great Seal of the State of Ohio. Now I'm sure there is an old law on the books against tampering with the seal, back when it was a hanging offense. So I really resent Barack Obama sparking this controversy since it will probably be me who gets hung.

RWE, thank you for the explanation on the Poohism. I had conceived a children's pop-up book covering the subject at hand but started reading the comments and got all confused! In my telling someone got their head stuck in the honey pot and I can't tell who it is. A former Clinton Secretary of State, you say? Or maybe the future National Security Advisor? In fact, make it a job requirement. Insert head into honey pot. Proceed to Protect America.

Iran is not finished yet. At Natanz and Isfahan they are redoubling their efforts to get the ultimate weapon of terror. The war is not over. Iran may have lost in Iraq, but now the war enters its most lethal phase.

We can thank Jimmy Carter and Andrew White for this folly. The butcher's bill is not done yet.

We'd better hurry up and destroy what they are building at Natanz and Isfahan. Even if we "sign on the dotted line" that security and alliance pact with Iraq, it is all but certain that a President Obonga will not strike the Iranian nuke facilities. Just the other day he recanted an earlier statement that all options would be on the table. Now, he has taken the military option off the table. He has announced to Iran that they have just won the negotiation with him - without firing a shot and without even meeting face to face.

Israel does not have enough of the air assets to do the job on the nuclear facilities. They do not have the stealth bomber, for example. They did do an amazing job of disabling the Syrian air defenses when they bombed the Syrian nuclear facility. But you can be sure the Iranians and their Russian advisers have worked hard to fix at least some of those holes.

I think a most overlooked question in all of this involves the Russians. Why do they want a nuclear-armed Iran? Why did they want a nuclear-armed Syria? Or Iraq? And, most of all, why does Russia want to see Israel wiped out by their proxies in the Middle East and in Iran? HOW is Israel any kind of threat to Russia that it would aid these countries in their desire to wipe out the Jewish state?

The connection between Iraq and nuclear weapons (and Syria via Saddam) is France (and China via North Korea). As far as Iran goes, what they got they got from the Pakis, not the Russians. And the Pakis got what they got from Canada and the Europeans.