Complicated pattern for the High Country next 5 days….Periods of Light Snowfall expected over the Upper Elevations through Monday….Turning Colder again early next week…..

Wednesday January 23, 2013

Posted at 9:01 am by Howard

What happened to the models!!

Early yesterday AM confidence was increasing…now it has collapsed as they all going their own ways on handling the next 5 days.

Again…The forecast models have gone their own way in trying to handle the energy over the eastern pacific. The upshot is the Euro model has gone a lot drier as compared to the last couple of days for QPF. However, they may now be actually under-done.

Looking at the the eastern pacific sat picts, there is a lot of subtropical moisture to the SSW of Mammoth that is left behind from a circulation center that has since dissipated. An approaching splitting short wave is drawing it NEward into the sierra. This moisture is going to move up and over the Sierra, later today and especially tonight and early Thursday. The higher elevations mainly above 8000 is going to get some light snowfall, possibly some 2 to 4 inches at the village and between 4 and 6 inches at and above 9K. This will occur, mainly tonight and there may be an additional 2 inches up there Thursday. Then there is the portion of the split off circulation center that “may” lift NE and wrap some slight snowfall back up and around from NV into the Sierra Friday/Ngt. This is just a slight chance.

Then we have the kicker wave coming in late Saturday PM into Sunday followed by a cold inside slider early Monday morning. What a &^%$#! Mess!!