North America, Western Europe and Japan will lead global advertising spending growth in 2015 for the first time in nine years, as marketers moderate their expectations for growth in emerging markets, according to new projections from ZenithOptimedia.

Worries of a slowdown in China’s economy contributed to a global market rout in late August, which has prompted advertisers to pull back slightly on their spending in China. ZenithOptimedia expects ad spending in China to rise 7.8% this year. While that’s double the global ad market’s growth rate, it’s not as robust as the 10.5% increase China experienced last year.

With a slowdown in China and with Brazil’s and Russia’s economies in recession, ZenithOptimedia notes that mature markets will contribute more to global ad spending growth this year than so-called rising markets for the first time since 2006.

However, rising markets — which refers to all markets outside of North America, Western Europe and Japan — will again lead market growth in 2016. ZenithOptimedia projects rising markets’ share of ad spending to increase from 37.4% this year to 38.8% in 2017.

By medium, mobile advertising continues to power growth in the global ad market and will account for 12.4% of ad spending this year, ZenithOptimedia projects. While desktop advertising continues to increase, the medium will lose market share for the first time this year. Desktop advertising is expected to account for 19.4% of ad spending this year, down from 19.8% last year, according to ZenithOptimedia.