Monday, October 19, 2015

2014 vs 2015 Steamtown Marathon Qualification Analysis

Up next is a race I've heard a lot about, and looking at pictures looks absolutely beautiful. Small race, with just over 2200 finishers; it has a high rate of qualification!

This year's numbers look very similar to last year.

AG Group

2014 Qualifiers

2014 AG Total

Percentage

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

50

320

15.63%

50

338

14.79%

F35-39

32

170

18.82%

42

179

23.46%

F40-44

32

171

18.71%

35

171

20.47%

F45-49

45

155

29.03%

42

143

29.37%

F50-54

15

77

19.48%

18

80

22.50%

F55-59

5

28

17.86%

7

39

17.95%

F60-64

4

13

30.77%

5

13

38.46%

F65-69

0

3

0.00%

2

7

28.57%

F70-74

1

1

100.00%

0

2

0.00%

F75-59

0

1

0.00%

0

1

0.00%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

M18-34

53

328

16.16%

28

273

10.26%

M35-39

26

184

14.13%

34

161

21.12%

M40-44

33

189

17.46%

25

226

11.06%

M45-49

44

192

22.92%

50

204

24.51%

M50-54

35

160

21.88%

34

161

21.12%

M55-59

26

104

25.00%

32

132

24.24%

M60-64

22

55

40.00%

20

62

32.26%

M65-59

5

18

27.78%

4

17

23.53%

M70-74

2

10

20.00%

0

7

0.00%

M75-59

1

4

25.00%

1

3

33.33%

M80+

0

1

0.00%

0

1

0.00%

Totals

431

2184

19.73%

429

2220

19.32%

Number of finishers nearly identical as well as the qualification numbers. The rate is slightly down, 0.41%.

The overall margin distribution:

Margin

2014

Percentage

2015

Percentage

<1 minute

23

5.34%

25

5.83%

1-2 minutes

29

6.73%

37

8.62%

2-3 minutes

26

6.03%

27

6.29%

3-4 minutes

28

6.50%

38

8.86%

4-5 minutes

20

4.64%

12

2.80%

5-10 minutes

101

23.43%

84

19.58%

10-20 minutes

107

24.83%

106

24.71%

20> minutes

97

22.51%

100

23.31%

Totals

431

429

Percentage of qualifiers in the under 5 minutes range is actually significantly up this year. 2014, under 5 minute group, heretofore referred to as the Squeaker Pack was 29.23%. In 2015, the Squeaker Pack was 32.40% of the Boston Qualifier total.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out on the overall number. This is one of the smaller feeders with nearly identical qualification total, so I'm not expecting a drastic difference, however looking at the margin breakdown, it may not be as insignificant as I initially thought.

Bonus for the margin data junkies (if an AG is missing, it means no qualifications either year):

AG

Year

< 1 min

1 - 2 min

2 - 3 min

3 - 4 min

4 - 5 min

5 - 10 min

10 - 20 min

20 > min

F18-34

STEAM2014

4.0%

2.0%

10.0%

10.0%

8.0%

24.0%

22.0%

20.0%

F18-34

STEAM2015

4.0%

10.0%

6.0%

2.0%

6.0%

18.0%

18.0%

36.0%

F35-39

STEAM2014

3.1%

18.8%

3.1%

6.3%

3.1%

21.9%

28.1%

15.6%

F35-39

STEAM2015

2.4%

9.5%

9.5%

11.9%

2.4%

16.7%

26.2%

21.4%

F40-44

STEAM2014

9.4%

9.4%

3.1%

0.0%

0.0%

37.5%

25.0%

15.6%

F40-44

STEAM2015

2.9%

22.9%

8.6%

5.7%

0.0%

11.4%

31.4%

17.1%

F45-49

STEAM2014

6.7%

4.4%

2.2%

6.7%

6.7%

20.0%

35.6%

17.8%

F45-49

STEAM2015

2.4%

9.5%

0.0%

7.1%

4.8%

14.3%

26.2%

35.7%

F50-54

STEAM2014

13.3%

13.3%

0.0%

6.7%

0.0%

33.3%

26.7%

6.7%

F50-54

STEAM2015

5.6%

0.0%

5.6%

5.6%

0.0%

22.2%

33.3%

27.8%

F55-59

STEAM2014

0.0%

0.0%

40.0%

0.0%

0.0%

20.0%

0.0%

40.0%

F55-59

STEAM2015

0.0%

14.3%

14.3%

0.0%

0.0%

42.9%

28.6%

0.0%

F60-64

STEAM2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

25.0%

0.0%

75.0%

F60-64

STEAM2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

20.0%

40.0%

F65-69

STEAM2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

F65-69

STEAM2015

50.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

50.0%

F70-74

STEAM2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

F70-74

STEAM2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

M18-34

STEAM2014

3.8%

5.7%

5.7%

1.9%

5.7%

24.5%

26.4%

26.4%

M18-34

STEAM2015

10.7%

10.7%

10.7%

14.3%

0.0%

25.0%

25.0%

3.6%

M35-39

STEAM2014

7.7%

3.8%

11.5%

11.5%

0.0%

30.8%

30.8%

3.8%

M35-39

STEAM2015

14.7%

5.9%

2.9%

11.8%

2.9%

35.3%

23.5%

2.9%

M40-44

STEAM2014

12.1%

6.1%

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

30.3%

15.2%

27.3%

M40-44

STEAM2015

8.0%

8.0%

20.0%

20.0%

0.0%

16.0%

16.0%

12.0%

M45-49

STEAM2014

2.3%

11.4%

9.1%

9.1%

6.8%

13.6%

22.7%

25.0%

M45-49

STEAM2015

4.0%

4.0%

4.0%

6.0%

0.0%

26.0%

30.0%

26.0%

M50-54

STEAM2014

8.6%

8.6%

11.4%

5.7%

8.6%

14.3%

22.9%

20.0%

M50-54

STEAM2015

11.8%

8.8%

5.9%

11.8%

2.9%

11.8%

23.5%

23.5%

M55-59

STEAM2014

0.0%

3.8%

0.0%

19.2%

7.7%

23.1%

11.5%

34.6%

M55-59

STEAM2015

3.1%

6.3%

6.3%

9.4%

9.4%

18.8%

18.8%

28.1%

M60-64

STEAM2014

0.0%

0.0%

4.5%

4.5%

0.0%

22.7%

31.8%

36.4%

M60-64

STEAM2015

5.0%

5.0%

0.0%

10.0%

5.0%

15.0%

35.0%

25.0%

M65-59

STEAM2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

40.0%

M65-59

STEAM2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

25.0%

0.0%

75.0%

M70-74

STEAM2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

50.0%

50.0%

M70-74

STEAM2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

M75-79

STEAM2014

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

100.00%

M75-79

STEAM2015

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

100.00%

Chicago according to the data I'm seeing has 46000 finishers and is my next race it process. That is going to be an interesting one to look at. I haven't yet started the process of grabbing results, though I've started setting up how I need to grab it and it's many pages even at the max result set of 1000. Shouldn't result in too much extra work as it's all just setting up the parsing process however, just want to note that it's a lot of data and I'm hoping by the end of the week I'll have it done. We'll see! October is really jam packed with feeder races!