Tag: Europe

For 21 weeks now, the Gilets Jaunes have taken to the streets of French cities to protest. It began as a demonstration against high and rising fuel taxes. These tax increases hit families getting children to school and the adults to work, and cut the earnings of the self-employed working from their vans and cars. … Continue reading “Will France cut taxes in response to protests?”

The Italians have joined China’s controversial “New Silk Road” programme, a move that is likely to stoke the ire of Washington. At the weekend, Italian populists handed Donald Trump yet another reason to turn his trade guns on Europe, increasing the risk of a German recession. At a signing ceremony in Rome, Chinese President Xi … Continue reading “Germany will pay the price for Italy’s provocation of Trump”

In 2018, international investors pulled out more than €50 billion from European equities in response to weakening Eurozone economic data, uncertainty over Brexit and concerns about Italian banks. Today, investors’ positioning in Europe is as underweight as it has been since the Eurozone crisis. It is understandable that investors are wary of a potential economic … Continue reading “Panning for gold in murky waters”

Real estate is typically a slow mover in the investment world. It tends not to be affected by the day-to-day rumblings in the equity and bond markets. Nevertheless, change is still afoot in real estate, with both short- and long-term trends affecting how we use properties and how we invest. Real estate is now at … Continue reading “Embracing change in European real estate”

The UK ended February with the question of Brexit still unanswered. The month was dominated by political newsflow as concerns over Brexit were compounded by the resignation of eleven MPs who left the Conservative or Labour parties to form ‘The Independent Group’. A second ‘meaningful vote’ on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal will take … Continue reading “The Brexit deadline looms”

Last year was not a good year for the world motor industry. Passenger car sales fell by 13% in the USA, by 9% in the UK, by 4% in China, by 3% in France and by 0.2% in Germany. In the USA higher interest rates reduced people’s willingness to take out car loans. In China … Continue reading “Car crash in the motor industry?”

European equities had a tough 2018 with the benchmark MSCI Europe index falling 10.6% over the year. Trade wars, reduced support from central banks and slower economic growth were among the factors that saw higher risk assets such as equities fall out of favour. Despite the difficult global backdrop, the eurozone economy continued to expand … Continue reading “Are investors too pessimistic on European shares?”

2018 will be a year that many investors would rather forget. A lucky few will still be looking for an overall gain for the year, but the past few months have proved extremely uncomfortable. What have been the highs and lows of the year? Research by Willis Owen shows that eight sectors delivered a positive … Continue reading “2018: A year to forget”

After the long period of rather calm markets in 2016-17, we predicted that from 2018 onwards, we would see a return towards more normal levels of market volatility. Swings up and down in share prices – even big moves – are normal behaviour for markets. The upside from investing in equity markets is the potential … Continue reading “Fear not – volatility is normal”

The 2019 budget target was unveiled on 27 September 2019, with the government defying the advice of Giovanni Tria, Italy’s Minister of Economy and Finance. Tria had recommended a deficit1 of 1.6% of GDP; however, the target has been set at 2.4% of GDP. Italy is now on a collision course with the European Commission, … Continue reading “Bond vigilantes at the gates in Italy”

At the start of 2018, it looked likely that interest rates could start to rise across Europe, signalling the end of the necessary post-crisis readjustment in the financial sector. However, as is often the case, the themes that drive markets at the start of the year can often be forgotten by the end. As 2018 … Continue reading “Europe’s struggle to break free”

As a deeper and more prolonged trade war is anticipated between the US and China, we have downgraded our global growth expectations and forecast slower growth in both 2018 and 2019. Much of the slowdown can be attributed to the effect of trade wars. Europe and Japan disappoint Two of the world’s most export-oriented economies, … Continue reading “Growth to slow as trade wars escalate”

The most likely candidate for the next ‘Lehman moment’ is in Europe. In some ways the regulatory response that followed in the years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers has been a success. The days of racy balance sheets chasing outsized profits on wafer thin capital are largely over; replaced by a mantra of prudence … Continue reading “Doom Loop”

The Russian stock market remains cheap by Western standards, with people applying a Russian discount for the political risks. The market is dominated by the large oil and gas enterprises including Rosneft, Lukoil, Gazprom and Surgutneftegas, and has done well since 2014. Much of the gain has come from the rise in energy prices increasing … Continue reading “Russian influence on Western markets”