Yemen - Iraq all over again?

Today, we are being told that both the US and the UK are advising non-essential citizens to leave Yemen. Many reports are being released on the Al-Queda connection and Yemen.
There are also a few all too familiar patterns in the history of Yemen. Strong support for Iraq in the Iraq-Iran gulf war (which did not sit well with Saudi amongst others), IMF program, officially called the PRGF (poverty reduction and growth facilty) aimed at privatizations, increased taxes, mass lay-offs etc. gone wrong and IMF pulling out, vast oil reserves (an estimated 4 billion barrels of oil), strategic position at the eastern end of the Red Sea (and thus the Suez canal), immediately across the water from those pesky Somali "Pirates", on the doorstep of the Strait of Hormuz, vital for Iran's oil exports, not to mention that a "friendly" regime would allow Saudi to bypass the potential threat to its oil exports from Iranian domination of the Strait of Hormuz. etc.
How long before we are told that Yemen has weapons of mass destruction?

Re: Yemen - Iraq all over again?

Germany and France now also joining in the fun. Closed their embassies and non-essential staff is being flown home. Did somebody rattle their cage that bad, or are they just preparing for the next episode in the international soap called "War on Terrorism"?

Re: Yemen - Iraq all over again?

Wouldn't worry much about a direct invasion; they don't have oil. The latest alert probably has far more to do with the Edward Snowden leaks, followed by the discovery that the UK, France and Germany were also checking Internet communications to some extent.

There has to be some excuse for 24/7 surveillance; what better than a massive terrorism scare? If the alert is actually for real, the timing is terribly convenient.

Re: Yemen - Iraq all over again?

The Americans did a study in 2012, estimating the oil reserves in Yemen to be 3 billion barrels. Other studies indicate at least 4 billion, some even higher, not to mention natural gas.Their oil is indeed under the Yemeni sand, and like elsewhere, they will go for it given half a chance. Even if they have to create that chance out of nowhere...

Re: Yemen - Iraq all over again?

Originally Posted by Ephilant

The Americans did a study in 2012, estimating the oil reserves in Yemen to be 3 billion barrels. Other studies indicate at least 4 billion, some even higher, not to mention natural gas.Their oil is indeed under the Yemeni sand, and like elsewhere, they will go for it given half a chance. Even if they have to create that chance out of nowhere...

Re: Yemen - Iraq all over again?

Despite the American sponsored and backed Yemen National National Dialogue declaring drones and the use of them illegal in Yemen, one of them killed another load of people today. Reports speak of 2 cars in the middle of nowhere being blown up by rockets fired from the drone.

Witnesses and local officials in the province of Shabwah said the drone fired at least six missiles at two vehicles in a remote area about 70km north of the provincial capital, Ataq. Both vehicles were destroyed.

"Eye Witnesses" (they do come in handy in the middle of the Yemeni desert) also very conveniently confirmed that some of the charred remains definitely belonged to an Al Queda fighter. So reason enough to hail this is yet another victory in the war against terrorism, but of course no mention that Yemen is the poorest of poor countries in the area, and that any argument with authority may have a lot more to do with the poverty maintained amongst the vast majority of the population, despite the oil and gas dollars rolling in. Instead, anybody who disagrees with the powers that be is accused of acting for personal gain and in order to blackmail the government into freeing jailed relatives...

All in all, in the last 10 days US drones killed over 20 people. Surely, that's no reason to get cheesed off with the Americans, is it?

Re: Yemen - Iraq all over again?

Ephilant, I'm reluctant to claim that you are scare mongering, but I can't help but wonder. Your views on US oil policy seem like those of BvB, stuck in the last Millenium.

You imply that the EIA report on Yemen portends malevolent US intentions, when the reality is that the EIA routinely produces these or similar reports for 217 countries, and what's more, makes them freely available on the web, for everyone to read, in case you didn't notice.

It's similar to the CIA's World Factbook, or an EIU report. 42 of the 217 countries including Yemen are given extra attention with an analysis brief such as the one you cited. A further 26 countries are given the lesser attention of analysis note, and the balance of 149 make up the remainder.

The first and second sentences of the Yemen report you cited make clear that Yemen is important in oil and gas terms because of it's geography rather than geology. I attach a big fat zero of significance to the report you cite. There's nothing remotely unusual or sinister about it. Energy is the business of the EIA for gawd's sake.

Here are the comparable reports for Greece and Ireland neither of which fall into one of the two categories receiving extra attention. Neither does Germany, France, Italy, or Spain for that matter.

Re: Yemen - Iraq all over again?

Yemeni authorities may have foiled a maritime plot. Security officials said that authorities in Yemen had foiled an "audacious plot" by al-Qaida to seize a port using militants in Army uniforms and kidnap and kill foreigners there, according to the NYT and other outlets. And a new round of drone strikes in the southeast region of the country killed seven people. The NYT's Nasser Arrabyee and Alan Cowell: "The depiction of the foiled plot was the first indication of the reasons behind the growing Western concerns for the safety of their nationals. Intercepts of a secret correspondence between Ayman al-Zawahri, the leader of Al Qaeda, and Nasir ul-Wuhayshi, the leader of the Qaeda affiliate in Yemen, inspired deep concern inside the American government about a possible terrorist plot by the group.

"Yemeni security officials said part of the militant operation included a plan to take control of the Canadian-run Mina al-Dhaba oil terminal in the Mukallah region on the Arabian Sea in the southeast of the country. The officials did not say how the plot had been disrupted. The plan would have involved many Qaeda operatives wearing Yemeni Army uniforms to seize the port and then attack, kill or kidnap foreigners working there, the officials said. It was not clear if the disruption of the purported plan was linked to a spate of recent American drone strikes. The security officials said the latest attack hit members of a Bedouin tribe some 40 miles west of Attaq in the south-eastern Shabwah area. It was the fifth known American strike in the last two weeks, part of an intensified campaign to disrupt the suspected plots that led to the embassy closings." Read the NYT story here.

But has the U.S. lost Yemen? Princeton's Gregory Johnsen, writing on FP, says so. Despite American drones firing missiles into Yemen - at least 75 in all that have brought the death toll to at least 600 - al-Qaida's franchise on the Arabian Peninsula - AQAP - continues to recruit more members, growing from about 300 in 2009 to "well over a thousand" today. Johnsen: "Part of the U.S. approach to fighting AQAP is based on what worked for the United States in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where drone strikes have decimated what is often called al Qaeda's core (though as al Qaeda's strength moves back toward the Arab world, analysts will need to start rethinking old categories). Unfortunately, not all lessons are transportable. This means that the United States is fighting the al Qaeda that was, instead of the al Qaeda that is." Read the rest here.

MILITARY EVACUATES U.S. EMBASSY IN YEMEN; DRONE KILLS SEVEN. In a sign of growing concern that a terrorist attack may be imminent, the State Department on Tuesday evacuated 50 to 100 non-essential government personnel from Yemen due to an "extremely high" security threat level, the Associated Press reports. A suspected U.S. drone reportedly killed seven alleged al-Qaida members in Yemen Tuesday. British authorities also withdrew diplomatic staff from Sana, the country's capital. The State Department strongly urged U.S. citizens in Yemen to leave immediately. Meanwhile, the BBC reports that Yemeni officials said that they had prevented a possible terrorist attack targeting the country's ports and oil pipelines. Read more

AL-QAIDA WON THIS ROUND—SO FAR. Has bin Laden's successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri, learned anything? The senior al-Qaida leader discussed operational matters with the head of Yemen-based al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, The New York Timesreported. Not only is it very unusual that a senior, Pakistan-based Qaida leader would discuss operational matters—including the timing for an attack—with affiliates, but U.S. officials were "stunned" the group spoke knowing the conversation would be picked up by intercepts. Perhaps Zawahiri has learned a little too much, National Journal's Sara Sorcher writes. Now more than ever, terrorists can know for sure that the U.S. is tracking their electronic communications. They used them anyway— to their advantage. Read more

As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

Re: Yemen - Iraq all over again?

Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu

No-one is entitled to their own facts.

Petty that didn't apply to the "weapons of mass destruction" scam, it could have saved a lot of innocent lives then, and many more to come, for the whole current mess in the region is a direct result of that "fact"...

With all due respect Count, I have personal, first hand experience with US foreign policy when it comes to "protecting their interests". 9 years of it (1981-1988), capped by the downing of flight IR655 by USS Vincennes in July 1988. As a result of that war crime (here's one of the mainy fabricated facts you are so set against: the crew on USS Vincennes were the only ones of all the many ships and aircraft in the area who very conveniently didn't hear the broadcast from Bandar Abbas air traffic control) in the Strait of Hormuz, me and my crew spend days fishing bits and pieces of human bodies out of the Strait. Not something I'll forget in a hurry, and not an experience that will allow me to start trusting US policies. Any country that thinks it has the right to interfere in the politics or economy of another country is, simply by claiming that right, wrong from the outset. No matter what facts ("our interest") they fabricate. Everybody is indeed entitled to their own opinion, but nobody, not even the US, is entitled to force their opinion on others, be it by fabricating facts or creating scenarios to manipulate opinion and justify the unjustifiable. When I read/see/hear American foreign policy, I know, from experience, that I'm looking at a pack of lies. And with all that, I do of course not even mention the US support and subsequent tolerance of the Greek Junta, just because it suited them...
It doesn't justify going blowing up marathon runners in Boston or other crimes like that, far from it. The US foreign policies do however create a very fertile recruiting ground for recruiting the nutters who will do stuff like the Boston bombing. The US policies provide them with the reason, that is a fact, the only fact.

Nothing illustrates the wrong-headedness of the US’ drone programme better than the story of Jaber Salim, a Yemeni scholar known for denouncing al-Qaeda. Jaber’s family always worried he would be targeted by militants, in revenge for his strong denunciations of their actions. But in the end it was a US drone strike in Hadramout last August which ended his life. Jaber was a natural ally for the US in Yemen - yet as a result of the drone programme, he is instead being used as a recruitment tool for extremists.

This is only one of the many examples of how US foreign policy is the maker of it's own problems. Flight IR655 is another one. If you want to know why Iranians dig their heels in when it comes to not standing to attention when Uncle Sam says so (How dare they!), there is one of many very good reasons. The SAVAK is another one, as is Saddam Hussein, once a very important American puppet. The Americans may have forgotten because it ain't on TV any longer, the Iranians haven't forgotten. A few million deaths later, it's etched in their memory for ever. That is the difference. Same with the Iraqi's, Afghani's, Yemeni's, and every body else who has been/is being pushed around by US foreign policy.
It would be a very good thing if the American people would simply start thinking a little about things instead of watching the sound and light shows over Bagdad and Tripoli on CNN (in between the important bits like Sex in the City, Oprah and Dr Phil of course), and instead ask a very simple question: "What if somebody did this to us, what would I do?". The answer to that is enough reason to revise the policy, or should be.

In a nutshell, the problem is that US foreign polices look at what they can do others for, rather than what they can do for others. Modern day history gives many, many instances of this, backed up by many, many deaths...