The meaning and meaninglessness of MLA endorsements

The final round of the PC leadership race got its first endorsement switch Monday when Doug Elniski moved from Ted Morton to Alison Redford. (Superseded, of course, by the Morton and Orman getting behind Gary Mar).

What does that mean for Redford, in Elniski’s Edmonton-Calder riding where the Calgary ex-justice minster got only 40 votes (five per cent) last weekend? Consider this: the guy Elniski endorsed there got 34 votes.

My analysis of the party voting results shows that many Tory MLAs had virtually no success to drive or enlist PC members to their preferred candidate.

So what value does an MLA endorsement mean on the ground?

Depends on which MLA we’re talking about. In some cases, MLAs prove to be strong salespeople, or all riding coattails of a regionally popular candidate. In others, they show weak organizational skills and/or prove that it’s tough to sell an unpopular product.

MORTON Team Supportin’ Morton numbered 10 MLAs. Only two of them, Evan Berger (Livingstone-Macleod) and George Groeneveld (Highwood) saw their ridings go Morton, and neither were able to convince more than half their local Tories to vote for their man. But given that a Mar supporter’s Little Bow also went Morton, this could have been a regional dynamic with little credit due for the MLAs.

Heck, Morton himself only scored 32 per cent of in his own Foothills-Rocky View.

Up north, Morton’s organizers were downright chuffed that Edmoton MLAs Peter Sandhu (Manning), David Xiao (McClung) and Carl Benito (Mill Woods) were Mortonites — hoping that would even help with their respective South Asian, Chinese and Filipino communities in the 403. All second-place finishes in those ridings. St. Albert didn’t take a shining to Morton despite any exhortations from MLA Ken Allred; he won 66 of 770 voters there, behind Horner, Mar and fellow red-in-her-name Redford.

REDFORD She won a bunch of ridings in Calgary. The one held by her lone supporter, Art Johnston (C-Hays), wasn’t one of them. He proved party votes aren’t his bag when he lost his own nomination to a newcomer.

GRIFFITHS The effect of Kyle Fawcett’s power brokerage in Calgary-North Hill? A mighty 10 votes, at least more than Horner’s eight. But not counting Fawcett’s own vote, and maybe his spouse”s…

HORNER First, his lone Calgary supporter Lindsay Blackett (C-North West) must have hurt when “24” showed up as Horner’s votes in his riding. Dead last, only 2.3 per cent of North West voters. That’s a message. On the other hand, that was the third-best result for Horner anywhere in Cowtown; Calgary-West was tops with, ahem, 31. Advance Education Minister Guy Weadick did a bit better to deliver a runner-up’s 85 votes in Lethbridge-West, and then there’s Len Mitzel in Cypress Hills-Medicine Hat turned 22 votes for Horner, five more than Orman’s low-water mark.

The gasps at Tory results HQ were audible at the 1,089 votes Ray Danyluk delivered for Horner in Lac La Biche-St. Paul, although he was apparently expecting to get double as many to polls. Most other endorsers in the north were good deliveryfolk for Horner, most notably Ken Kowalski, who after 32 years serving Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock must have won a few followers.

Like for Stelmach, the northerners were able to deliver, mostly majorities rather than pluralities. But in central Alberta Horner can’t be as happy with his lieutenants. Luke Ouellette (Innisfail-Sylvan Lake) brought in pickup cabfuls of supporters to Stelmach in 2006, but only managed to get 45 per cent of voters to pick Horner on the first ballot.

Drumheller-Stettler went 100-91 for Mar over Horner, despite the fact that Jack Hayden was a Horner-er. The numbers here stunned me. Hayden is not only a household name in any rural riding as minister of agriculture (and before that infrastructure), but he was also rural chairman for Ed Stelmch in the 2006 election, before becoming an MLA. During that race, the former head of rural council alliance AAMD&C toured the countryside with Stelmach, telling rural folk this was their last chance to elect a premier before redistricting watered down their voices. The fact that Hayden couldn’t even crack triple digits here doesn’t seem to bode well for either himself nor Horner, harvest season or no harvest season.

And for those who guessed Ed Stelmach secretly pulled for his former deputy premier: Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville saw a three-vote margin for Horner over Mar.

MAR With nearly half the caucus in his corral, I won’t go over all of them. Just the outliers.

In Calgary, only two supporters may have lifted him to a majority: Len Webber (C-Foothills), and Teresa Woo-Paw (C-Mackay) although the latter riding was Mar’s own from 1993 to 2008, and that’s gotta matter. (Similarly, Rick Orman was the former MLA for C-Montrose, where he won convincingly.)

Two of his allies didn’t help notch riding wins for him: Alana Delong (C-Bow) and Children’s Services Minister Yvonne Fritz (C-Cross). Power to party operators: her constit president Josh Traptow, claimed he won the poll for Redford and will do so again.

Energy Minister Ron Liepert‘s C-West riding was a Mar pluarlity —40 per cent to Redford’s 39 per cent. For the Tory backroom veteran who was Jim Dinning’s chief caucus-herder in 2006, that’s not too hot. Then again, the numbers in 2006 for Dinning weren’t Danyluk-sized either, but I seem to recall they were good in C-West. Also worth noting this is Rob Anders country, and his fave Morton wound up way back in third.

In what they call in Quebec les regions, his apparent power players were George Vanderburg (Whitecourt-Ste. Anne), Arno Doerksen (Strathmore-Brooks) and George Rogers (Leduc-Beaumont-Devon), whose eyes I recall bugging out back in 2006 when a Stelmach drubbing was inflicted on that Dinning supporter’s turf. Strong majorities in all three.

Surprised that Intergovermental Affairs Minister Iris Evans couldn’t bring in more for Mar in Sherwood Park, where it’s been rumoured he may run if elected. A plurality in a riding where Horner, Orman, and Redford also tallied triple digits. Also a bit surprised with Finance Minister Lloyd Snelgrove, who bucked the rural trend, went with Mar and still doubled the Horner votes in Vermilion-Lloydminster, the riding next to Stelmach’s.

In Edmonton, while Thomas Lukaszuk (E-Castle Downs) and Naresh Bhardwaj (E-Ellerslie) saw healthy majorities, there is only one name truly worth mentioned when it comes to vote-getting in the capital.

Education Minister Dave Hancock (E-Whitemud) has one of Alberta’s most populous ridings, but as a Tory executive going back to the 1992 leadership race, there is perhaps no truer believer in party politics than him. One in four votes from Edmonton came from his riding, and there are 18 ridings in Edmonton. That’s an MLA you want in your corner.

Comments

We encourage all readers to share their views on our articles and blog posts. We are committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion, so we ask you to avoid personal attacks, and please keep your comments relevant and respectful. If you encounter a comment that is abusive, click the "X" in the upper right corner of the comment box to report spam or abuse. We are using Facebook commenting. Visit our FAQ page for more information.