The most likely playoff matchup – Part I, The Top 5

Forgive me for writing yet another speculative piece regarding who the Thunder could/would/should meet in the playoffs depending upon if they grab the such-and-such seed after so-and-so wins or loses but honestly, at this point in the season, the Western Conference from #2 on down is quite literally a giant coin flip based off of who owns the tie-breakers, who the teams are playing (directly influenced by what that team has done against those teams previously) and, of course, what the teams record is going into the last week and a half of the 2010 season so it really does merit further column consideration.

But before we target the Thunder specifically, let’s take a snapshot at the Western Conference standings as they are right now and get a good look at just how wonderfully crazy the playoff positions have shaped up thus far, shall we?

Crazy, huh? I’m not sure I ever remember a season where the second seed and the eighth seed where separated by only 3 games, let alone the second seed and sixth seed being separated by only 1.5 games.

Now then, let’s get down to the nitty gritty and have an honest-to-goodness look at the Thunder’s most likely playoff match-up after we look at who plays whom the rest of the way, how many games the teams have already played and (here’s the hard part) what the outcomes of the remaining games will most likely look like…did I mention all of this can change in one night since there will be seven games in the next ten days that feature two of the bottom seven seeds playing against one another?

First things first, the Los Angeles Lakers are locked in as the #1 seed in the Western Conference with their 55 wins even if they lose all of their remaining games, which is highly unlikely anyway as the Lakers play @Denver, @Minnesota, Portland, Sacramento and an “away” game against the Clippers to close out the season.

The Lakers are 1-2 against the Nuggets, 2-0 against the T-Wolves, 1-1 against the Blazers, 3-0 against the Kings and 2-1 against the Clippers. So at the absolute worst the Lakers go 3-2 the rest of the way, finish with 58 wins and 24 losses and await the team who gets left out of the Western Conference’s musical game of chairs with the song, “No matter how they’ve played of late/no one wants the Lakers for their first round date,” echoing in the background.

Secondly, the Dallas Mavericks own enough tie-breakers to currently sit as the #2 seed in the standings, also with 5 games left to play. The Mavericks will play Memphis, @Portland, @Sacramento, @Clippers and then wrap up the season with a home game against San Antonio.

Dallas is 2-1 against the Grizzlies, 0-3 against the Blazers, 3-0 against the Kings, 2-0 against the Clippers, and 2-1 against the Spurs. So if everything holds true to the season thus far, the Mavs would finish 4-1 the rest of the way and end the season with 54 wins and 28 losses.

Thirdly, the Denver Nuggets are the #3 seed right now because they still, BARELY, own the tie-breaker over the Jazz. But as we all know the Nuggets have been hurting lately without George Karl and Kenyon Martin so it’s going to be pretty hard to get a fair gauge on how they should finish the season from here on out (I may also reveal some Thunder bias regarding the outcomes of teams facing the Thunder that have been split during the regular season, but you know what, you probably should have seen it coming since you’re, you know, reading a Thunder blog…but at least I’m admitting it, right? That’s the first step!).

The Nuggets play @Oklahoma City, then host the Lakers, San Antonio, Memphis and close out the season @Phoenix. Hmmm…

The Nuggets are 1-1 against the Thunder, 2-1 against the Lakers, 2-1 against the Spurs, 2-1 against the Grizzlies and 1-2 against the Suns. And with all of the Nuggets recent troubles without Karl and Martin and with the Thunder playing at home on Wednesday night, I’m going to give them the edge in that toss-up game since the Thunder beat an underhanded Nuggets team at home this season (if it was in Denver I’d have gone the other way) and say that the Nuggets finish 3-2, good for 53 wins and 29 losses.

Fourthly, the Utah Jazz are a tie-breaker away from being higher than the #4 seed they currently occupy and are the true wild card of this bunch because with their schedule, I can easily see them winning four or even five of their next five games to sneak into the #2 seed.

The Jazz host the Thunder then play @Houston, @New Orleans, @Golden State and finish off the season against the Phoenix Suns at home.

The Jazz are 0-3 against the Thunder, 2-1 against the Rockets, 2-1 against the Hornets, 2-0 against the Warriors, and 2-1 against the Suns. See what I mean?

The reason I say I can see them winning all five of these games is because, honestly, it’s almost impossible to win four times against the same team in a single regular season. As much as the Thunder have given the Jazz fits and owned them this year…the Jazz have rarely been 100% against the Thunder and the Thunder won’t be playing at home like they did on New Year’s Eve when they did beat a full-strength Jazz team.

So I honestly think the Jazz will finish the season 5-0, ending up with 55 wins and 27 losses. Of course if the Thunder go in and beat the Jazz tomorrow night at Utah…well, then we’ll have even more tie-breaker fun, won’t we?

Fifthly, the Phoenix Suns have little hope of jumping higher than the fourth seed despite their spot as the #5 seed because they have no hope of winning their division, even with five games remaining.

The Suns face the Spurs, then play @Oklahoma City, Houston, Denver and @Utah.

The Suns are 1-1 against the Spurs, 1-1 against the Thunder, 3-0 against the Rockets, 2-1 against the Nuggets and 1-2 against the Jazz. Honestly, the Suns could do anything the rest of the way and at this point, it wouldn’t surprise me. They can win out or they could go 1-4 or 2-3 and I wouldn’t be shocked. I’ll say the Suns beat the Nuggets, the Rockets and even the Spurs but fall to the Thunder (BIAS ALERT) since the game is in OKC and lose to the Jazz, finishing with 53 wins and 29 losses.

As of right now, that would mean that the standings would look like:

1. Lakers
2. Jazz
3. Mavs
4. Suns
5. Nuggets

That means the Thunder would need to win at least five of the next six to move ahead of the #4 seeded Suns and the #5 seeded Nuggets, and since I currently have them losing to Utah, but beating the Nuggets and the Suns at home, that would mean that they’d only have to beat Golden State and Portland on the road (the latter being a giant ouch) and Memphis at home to accomplish this feat…or, you know, make me eat my words and beat the Jazz in Salt Lake City.

To find out if they will…tune in to tomorrow’s article for Part II, The Bottom 3.

our bench is going to have to be huge tonight. utah's is streaky at best even though brewer can go off from time to time. serge and nick are going to have a hell of a time tonight. let's hope harden decides its time to go for 20+ again and maynor continues his clutch playing

Lakers and Denver are the only two i'd rather not play but who cares got to go through everyone to get to the big show anyway. If Bynum is out Lakers are hurting. Home court would be nice. I they beat Utah tommorow I will be impressed!

Dallas, Phoenix, Denver and Utah are all top 12 on offensive efficiency and specifically eFG%. On defense the Jazz are 10th on defensive efficiency and 11th on defensive eFG%, the other 3 are worse on both though only by a little except for the Sun's overall defensive mark. They are all offensively biased, two by a little, two by a lot.

Dallas, Phoenix, Denver and Utah all have proven PGs, proven at leading a team. Of the 4 Phoenix probably has the least proven Coach.

Is the Coach or the PG more important? The Coach is the easy answer and is on the defensive side but I think the PG is pretty darn important to how the offense actually runs and what it gets overall and in those decisive moments.

The Star is obviously very important too. Utah is probably the least dependent on one guy.

Any team that is going to make the final four or win it all will probably need to be pretty strong on at least two of the three of PG, Star and Coach.

The Thunder are very close to having the highest % of points from their big 3 in the league. I was tempted to say that suggests you can't afford to have one of these 3 have a bad series but Westbrook has been off shooting the last 10 games and the bench has surged to more than replace the loss. I guess they probably can afford Westbrook or Green being off. No substitute for Durant being at least ok or really on though.

Makes sense. I wouldn't be unhappy with either Dallas or Phoenix, to be honest. I'd like to avoid Denver or Utah.

I just can't see us winning a series if Kevin Durant performs the way he's performed against Dallas this season. Maybe it's a random thing. Everything else about the matchup, which you go into, is positive.

justin :Nobody on our roster can defend Dirk Nowitzki, either.The Suns are the team I’d want to face in the first round. I think our style of defense works best on a team like that, and it’s the only team ahead of us in the standings that I feel Kevin Durant will be able to score on without any trouble (not to mention Russ). Amar’e will score a lot of points, sure, but nobody else really scares me on that roster. I’d rather face Steve Nash than Deron Williams. Jerry Sloan will play Williams 40+ minutes a game in the playoffs, Nash won’t get more than 35.

I prefer Dallas even though we cant guard Dirk one on one

why?

Caron Butler looks ordinary even against the slumping Thabo . . .

Did Jason Terry play Saturday? He's a 6-2 two guard going up against Harden or Thabo - they use their length to give him fits - which is easy because he's mainly a jumpshooter . . .

Westbrook struggles against any decent penetrating point guard - he has more of a chance in a series agaisnt jumpshooter Kidd . . .

I’d rather get Utah, the Thunder has shown that it can dominate Utah and they’re not on fire anymore… The problem would be playing in SLC, but it’s not as bad as playing in Denver, so we’re fine here.The Suns scare me the most, to be honest… they’re crazy hot and Stoudemire and Nash are back to their best, and that’s scary considering how badly the last few games have been defensively.

fools gold with Utah . . .

Okur, Korver, and AK have been out for one or multiple games with us . . . I don't think we have played them once with all three of those guys playing . . . I dont like that matchup at all . . .

The Suns are the team I'd want to face in the first round. I think our style of defense works best on a team like that, and it's the only team ahead of us in the standings that I feel Kevin Durant will be able to score on without any trouble (not to mention Russ). Amar'e will score a lot of points, sure, but nobody else really scares me on that roster. I'd rather face Steve Nash than Deron Williams. Jerry Sloan will play Williams 40+ minutes a game in the playoffs, Nash won't get more than 35.

And he was poor at the overall efficiency level against Dallas last season too even though he shot an alright FG% then. It is still small samples but it might be more than just Marion. Carlisle might have some good ideas about defending Durant. Last season it was some combo of ball denial and shot denial.

This season Durant is well above his average overall efficiency against the Suns and Jazz and well below his average against the Lakers. Last season he was strong against the Lakers and about average against the Jazz and Suns. A lot of it is probably random variation but some of it is related to personnel and strategy change. Artest might have made a difference. More games would help tell.

The utah game is critical indeed. They will be fired up after the loss at the ford center which they said (i think) it was the worst loss of the season. AK47 is a good defender and has the ability to give KD trouble. D-Will will kill Russ (Russ will kill him too) and we have to put thabo on him what makes me always angry for some reason.

Serge Ibaka said that Amare is the most difficult guy to defend for him... and that says something.

Scouring around for Utah Jazz info I found the Jazz blog network to be atypically thin. Again reminded about how great things are in OKC - especially with Royce and Co. According to the SLC local paper's blog though some there seem to think we'd be good for them in the playoffs.

Phoenix is hot but look who they have played since their streak started: NOR, UTH, POR, @GSW, NYK, @MIN, @CHI, @NJN, @DET. The home wins over Utah and Portland were impressive, but the rest of that run was a cake walk. Then they lose @MIL who lost Bogut for most of the game.

I'd rather get Utah, the Thunder has shown that it can dominate Utah and they're not on fire anymore... The problem would be playing in SLC, but it's not as bad as playing in Denver, so we're fine here.

The Suns scare me the most, to be honest... they're crazy hot and Stoudemire and Nash are back to their best, and that's scary considering how badly the last few games have been defensively.

also division winner gets a top 4 seed, but not necessarily home court advantage(that is record based) So it is possible with the slide dallas is on that they could end up the 4 seed and not have home court against the 5 seed.

We pretty much have to sweep the 3 division games to win the division. 1st tiebreaker for division is head to head, we have the tiebreaker over utah, a win against denver ties us with them at 2-2. A win over portland ties us with them at 2-2. The 2nd tiebreaker is record within the division, denver is 11-4 now, if we beat them they are 11-5, we are 9-4 so beating portland and utah also gives us the tiebreaker with them. Beating utah and denver puts them even in the loss column with us.

We also could win it if denver or utah lose a few games, but id rather just go and win the division by controlling our own destiny.

I used to like AK. I loved when he dunked over people and the person that got dunked on would have this look on their face like "Holy Crap! I just got dunked on by a skinny white dude with a stupid hair cut."

Those highlights were always fun.

And I agree. The Utah game is very critical. Hopefully Scotty gets the boys focused and we play some defense like we did at the beginning of the season and and keep a similar offensive efficiency. I'd love to blow them out and give the rest of the west a little pause about facing us in the 1st round.

Man ... I just realized that I have been reading more about the Thunder than OU recruiting or spring football practice reports. Weird. Its almost like there are two distinct and separate seasons now.

Phoenix is hot. Dallas and Denver are looking ragged. Utah is somewhere in the middle.

It's really difficult to account for all the different variables since these teams play each other a lot to close out the season. The important game to me in all of this is @Portland. Unless we really take care of business and beat some of the tough teams on this home stretch, that game might be the difference between round one against the Lakers or round one against the Jazz.

This whole picture will be much clearer after the Utah game. If we beat Utah, I think you can start talking about really getting into the mix for the division. If we lose to Utah, Portland's got the Clippers the next day and we'll have a dogfight at the bottom with San Antonio already holding the tie breaker on us.