CHART: Measuring The Impact Of Neymar's Injury On Brazil's Chances To Win The World Cup

Brazil is still the heavy favourite to win the World Cup. But thanks to Neymar’s injury, the home team is now more likely to lose one of their final games than win both according to Nate Silver’s World Cup model.

If Brazil was at full strength for their final two matches, they would have had a 54% chance to win the World Cup. But with Neymar out of the tournament and Thiago Silva suspended for the semifinals match, Brazil’s chances are down to less than 50-50.

The injury to Argentina’s attacking midfielder Angel di Maria, who will miss the semifinals match against Netherlands, may actually be more damaging than Neymar’s injury.