The American League Championship Series moves back to Texas as the New York Yankees look to win their fourth straight game in the series to advance to the World Series. After winning the first two games of the series, the Houston Astros now find them...more

The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.

Team

Pitcher

Estimate

Edge

NY YANKEES

SEVERINO LUIS

-130

HOUSTON

VERLANDER JUSTIN

-145

-5

Team Trends and Angles

All team trends listed below apply to the current game.

NY YANKEES Team Trends

Description

Win/Loss Record

Over / Under

Current Year

Last 3 Years

Since 1997

Current

Last 3

Since 1997

W-L

Units

W-L

Units

W-L

Units

O-U

O-U

O-U

in all games

98-75

3.25

269-229

2.85

2084-1472

-16.46

88-82

237-244

1645-1770

as an underdog of +100 or higher

21-21

6.75

75-96

-1.8

307-354

24.52

17-24

71-94

303-327

as an underdog of +100 to +150

17-19

1.4

64-82

-7.85

268-309

2.14

15-20

61-80

267-284

as an underdog of +125 to +175

9-7

5.5

26-34

2.05

109-135

17.59

4-12

26-32

116-120

when the money line is +125 to -125

32-40

-9.25

125-118

3.9

546-509

19.45

38-33

119-116

501-513

as a road underdog of +100 or higher

19-18

7.5

55-74

-3.35

251-284

27.63

16-20

53-72

241-269

as a road underdog of +100 to +150

15-16

2.15

46-62

-7.75

218-242

12.6

14-16

44-61

208-232

on the road when the money line is +125 to -125

19-32

-13.3

72-85

-13.3

380-361

13.4

26-24

74-79

342-369

as a road underdog of +125 to +175

9-6

6.5

22-25

5.3

93-113

17.14

4-11

19-26

92-106

in road games

41-45

-4.1

119-129

-8

971-805

-18.65

42-43

118-124

832-874

in the second half of the season

55-40

4.55

146-118

11.75

1141-769

35.38

43-49

117-140

877-959

in October games

7-5

1.95

9-10

-1.6

101-79

0.38

5-7

8-11

73-102

when playing on Friday

11-17

-10.7

38-41

-10.65

303-250

-42.34

16-11

44-31

270-262

when playing with a day off

12-14

-7.25

27-32

-13.05

247-193

-29.28

14-12

31-28

205-217

against AL West opponents

17-21

-12.7

54-51

-10.9

454-352

-58.31

20-18

47-54

371-409

when pitching in night games

65-48

5.35

180-152

6.6

1332-965

-14.91

58-53

163-157

1071-1133

vs. right-handed starters

73-51

6.25

192-155

2.55

1477-1047

-48.02

63-59

164-173

1150-1270

in playoff games

7-4

3.8

7-5

2.75

93-65

10.21

5-6

5-7

63-91

in the league championship series

3-2

1

3-2

1

32-25

1.26

2-3

2-3

22-32

in a playoff game trying to close out a series

1-0

1.8

1-0

1.8

19-16

0.41

0-1

0-1

14-21

when leading in a playoff series

0-0

0

0-0

0

34-25

1.83

0-0

0-0

23-34

after having won 3 of their last 4 games

26-24

-3.5

73-72

-13.1

665-490

-48.56

27-23

68-73

539-573

after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

46-28

10.3

115-86

11.3

973-660

-1.78

44-29

104-93

773-797

after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games

33-25

-1.15

79-68

-4.1

753-522

-32.47

32-25

68-75

590-628

after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games

22-20

-6.05

51-51

-13.55

554-404

-67.69

22-19

47-52

425-488

after shutting out their opponent

4-4

-0.85

10-12

-3.6

120-79

8.88

3-5

10-12

91-99

after allowing 1 run or less

17-15

-1.55

44-42

-5.3

352-235

18.58

16-15

41-43

268-297

after allowing 2 runs or less

34-22

7.75

88-69

10

659-442

26.07

30-25

74-79

493-567

after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games

23-16

4.55

60-42

14.1

421-284

4.29

24-15

54-47

328-347

after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games

13-10

1.65

33-25

7

250-172

-3.02

13-10

26-31

192-212

after allowing 4 runs or less 5 straight games

8-7

-0.6

21-16

4.15

154-107

-4.59

9-6

17-19

114-133

after allowing 4 runs or less 6 straight games

5-4

-0.7

11-11

-1.8

95-64

0.71

6-3

11-10

73-77

after a win by 4 runs or more

25-27

-9.8

57-59

-16.5

559-353

16.13

31-20

54-60

404-472

after 2 or more consecutive home games

44-28

0.65

115-95

-11.65

901-577

4.7

35-36

96-107

665-753

after 3 or more consecutive home games

34-23

-2.7

89-82

-22.45

712-490

-53.16

26-30

78-88

534-621

when his team is off a win

52-45

-5

144-125

-0.7

1220-853

-30.52

49-47

121-141

938-1055

when his team is off 2 or more consecutive wins

31-20

5.5

77-66

-3.3

712-503

-44.38

28-22

64-74

560-606

when his team is off 3 or more consecutive wins

17-13

-0.95

38-38

-11.2

417-289

-20.52

17-12

36-36

320-352

when playing against a team with a winning record

53-35

16.4

138-113

25.8

973-768

20.6

46-40

113-129

795-884

when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season

Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in HOUSTON games 51.6% of the time since 1997. (1482-1390)

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in HOUSTON games 51.1% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (225-215)

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NY YANKEES games 50.8% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (224-217)

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NY YANKEES games 52.1% of the time since 1997. (1513-1391)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in NY YANKEES games 49.7% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (226-229)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in HOUSTON games 51% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (221-212)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in HOUSTON games 52% of the time since 1997. (1243-1146)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in NY YANKEES games 51.7% of the time since 1997. (1283-1198)

Head-to-Head Series History

Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.