Monday, June 22, 2015

I have a piece out tomorrow on NATO's growing credibility-capability crisis. But I also wanted to post this piece in order to point out the specific vulnerabilities faced by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

While a Russian attack on the Baltics would likely center around a semi-covert campaign in the vein of Russia's Eastern Ukraine operations, this is my (very, very basic) illustration (using Google Maps) of the Baltic states vulnerability to a Russian invasion. It is based on my assessment of Russia's military build-up in its Kaliningrad exclave, and Russia's pre-existing military capabilities in its western military district. In the event of a Russian invasion of one or more of the Baltic states, NATO's rapid reaction forces would face rapid encirclement and compression. Reliant on Airborne units, and lacking a significant rapid-deployment heavy weapons capability, NATO would risk being locked against the Baltic Sea. To counter this threat, NATO must urgently boost its combined arms presence in Poland. This would enable NATO forces to encircle Kaliningrad and reinforce NATO units in the Baltics before they were overrun. Please note, I don't mean to play 'war games' with this piece. I just want to point out the obvious vulnerabilities that we face. President Putin must be more effectively deterred.

Please check out links for my previous commentary on Russia: found here.

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Anbari tribes are increasingly (and collectively) gravitating towards IS. This is very, very bad news. I predicted (back in February) that this would occur if the US failed to support those tribes against IS/Iran. President Obama's policy in the Middle East, as I've noted before, is an unmitigated disaster. He's ceding the Middle East to Iran, to IS, and to unmitigated chaos. Oh... and he's inviting a nuclear arms race.

Monday, June 1, 2015

Just wanted to pen a quick
piece on how FIFA’s establishment ‘leaders’ – like Jack Warner and Sepp Blatter
etc. - are reacting to the indictments issued last week. In my opinion, these
individuals are human
skunks. Their stench has long been nauseating. And yet, because they've
been allowed to operate without judicial challenge until now, their arrogance
has become defining. They believe themselves to be untouchable. Case in
point... Mr. Warner has released a YouTube sermon that blames
his indictment on U.S. anger at losing the 2022 World Cup to Qatar. In his
weird video (with soundtrack overlay...), Warner advised
the FBI to, “Take your losses like a man, and go.”

Of course, as I noted last
week, ''hosting the World Cup in Qatar is like hosting the Super Bowl
on a middle school soccer field built by slaves. That is, if
that soccer field was based in the searing heat of California's Death Valley.
And was surrounded by religious fanatics shouting at women and those bringing
alcohol to the game.'' While Qatar's unsuitability for the World Cup has
always been unambiguous (watch the
video below), Warner and co. are refusing to show any remorse for
their malfeasance. In return, investigators will
simply redouble their scrutiny of FIFA dealings. Expect special attention towards the$1.58
billionin marketing
income that FIFA received from the 2014 World Cup.

Nevertheless,
the arrogance
of FIFA leaders reflects their utter unworthiness for the critical roles with
which they're entrusted. Amusingly, this
truth is encapsulated by the song with which Warner overlays his
sermon. It's the theme tune to "Inception''. A movie about a reality
built upon dreams. It suits FIFA officials perfectly.