It's a private poll for a group with an interest in the outcome of the race, but CU is also an established force on the right.

"In a state where John McCain won by a mere 4,000 votes in 2008, it is clear that the tide has shifted decisively toward the Republican column in 2012," said CU President David Bossie. "Missourians say 'show me' the results, and it's clear the Obama-McCaskill team’s failed liberal policies have taken the country and Missouri in the wrong direction.”

Most polls so far have showed McCaskill ahead, but by varying degrees, in a red state where she has had political difficulties. Akin supporters hope that his seek-forgiveness approach, combined with her weaknesses, can make the race close.

If it is, some outside groups that ditched the race may be tempted to come back in.