The Proof is in the People

Forecasting the next big thing on the web seems to be the sport of the season these days. Each quarter, new companies launch and put themselves at the mercy of the blogosphere and the press with the hopes of being the next media darling.

But is being a media darling a good indicator of how well a new business will do? Not necessarily. During a recent meeting at Newsvine, Nick Hanauer said something to the team which I believe deserves some further thought:

“Almost every time a great idea is first presented, people tend to reject it.”

It sounds counterintuitive, but it’s often times true. An entrepreneur who always thinks along the lines of everyone else will produce a product or service just like everyone else’s. That’s usually a bad thing.

So it is with raised brow that I watch the plucking of the Gather.com feathers by seeminglyeverysingletechpundit on the interweb. I had never really checked out Gather before two weeks ago when a couple of reporters asked me about the company, but this week seems to be the week to pass judgement on them. I think the site, just like all sites, has a mix of good and bad, but the only way to determine if it will be successful in the end is to see how fast they react to their users and how nimble they are at running their business. I think a lot of the press and blogosphere are just expressing doubt about whether having 46 people on staff helps or hurts this objective.

Even though Newsvine is not a competitor of Gather, I do admit that I feel very fortunate (and humbled) to have most of the press, the blogosphere, and the public writing so positively about us right now. I’d like to think it’s because we have the beginnings of a great new way to get your news, and that we’re all nice people over here, but you never know. I think the Gather team is probably a bunch of nice people as well, but for some reason, people aren’t taking too kindly to what they’re presenting. My advice to Gather is to not let the cynics get you too low and not let the praise get you too high. We are in a constant state of improvement over here, regardless of the weather, and I think that’s the only thing that matters for any company moving forward.

I also feel very fortunate to have a company of five right now. We may hire a couple/few more people over the next several months, but the small footprint lets us improve the site daily and operate with minimal overhead. We have so many plans for new features… it’s just that none of them require blowing the staff out to old media proportions.

Those are words I may very well eat (and eat happily), but as of now, it behooves us, and any pre-money company to stay as small as possible until there are necessary reasons to spend more capital. Now, Gather may have found those reasons and others just aren’t smart enough to see them yet, or they’re just aggressively developing their company and aiming really high. Both of those can turn out quite well.

As for us, we’re just going to keep learning from our users and admitting we only know half of what we think we know. The moment you think you understand everything about the market you’re entering is the moment you exit it.

I’d like to close with a quote from an e-mail we received just a few hours ago from a Newsvine user:

“What if we want to contribute our ad earnings back to the site once the ads start appearing?”

It’s this sort of customer sentiment and goodwill that keeps us going every day. We realize there will eventually be bumps in the road with media coverage of Newsvine, but the only measuring stick we’re paying attention to right now is user opinion. We think we’re on to something, and to us, the proof is in the people.

I am surprised that I like Newsvine so much, since I tend to be a late adopter of technology trends. It’s very intuitive, makes categories readily accessible, etc. My only qualm is that when you go to the Seed Newsvine page via the JavaScript browser button, the page resizes itself. It took me awhile, but I finally figured out the URL scheme to pass along a “seeded” link to the regular Seed a Link page (via 1-click on my blog) without JS. To me, it makes sense that these two would be the same page, but I’m sure you guys know best.

I wish there was a place to see all the seeds in any given category. I really want to see what people are posting at any given time in real time. Is there anyway to do this? Kinda like digg has a digg spy. Its the best way to find hidden stories.

Um, yes it is. User-generated newsblog content with revenue sharing, plus tagging and rating of news sources? Both are in the social news category, competing for the same users as Digg and Slashdot, and to a lesser extent Inform.com and Topix. You should be glad of such market validation.

Paul: Yes, I suppose we all are in the “web site” category as well, which really makes things look bleak considering the competition from eBay, Amazon, Google, and Hampster Dance.

As human beings, our instinct is to constantly try and make sense of the world around us by placing new things alongside the old things we are already familiar with. When we see something new, we are quick to draw as many comparisons as possible so as to decrease our anxiety of the unknown.

You are free to consider sites like Newsvine competitors of whatever other sites you’d like. If a person has X number of minutes to use the internet every day, every site is competing for that attention. We don’t, however, view Gather, Digg, Slashdot, or any of the other sites you mention as competitors. If anything, it’s more like the CNN.com’s of the world we’re trying to improve upon.

Mike, that CNN comparison sounds as good as any, since we’re all making it up as we go along. Of course, everyone’s a unique snowflake if they want to be. Nevertheless, it’s going to become increasingly hard to escape blogger characterisations of the “news aggregator” or “social news” sector, or “News 2.0” as Michael Arrington christened it. Like the content of the sites themselves, the power to bestow labels is in the hands of the users.

I just wanted to make clear that our approach is neither to create a new category, nor join a “newish” category currently inhabited by early adopter and techie types. It’s to take a very old and enormously higher trafficked category (point and click mainstream news) and inject it with the new life that it so needs.

But, can you name one company who achieved greatness without becoming a media darling? The press isn’t there when that great idea is first presented. They come in later, when companies go through the public scrutiny that filters out so many well-intended companies from that level of greatness.

Just like to point out that Newsvine will indeed succed possibly though you need to stop aiming the product and changes based around the views been given to you. Yes to some extent but you have stated you want this site to be the masses and in no way is the membership of newsvine for the masses yet. The views and opnions given are justified and i indeed love the site but for and newsvine to get your overall aim at a site for the masses where they click the green button as well as the blue E then you need to start broadaning the user range and getting the masses into the site… If you manage this then yes newsvine will still be great but it will also achieve the aims of the company and no matter how successful a company is to the outside it will never have the same feeling as realising you have reached your own goals….

I totally agree with everything that’s been said. Though I’m only 15 years old I desperately want to create something thatw ill permanently leave my mark on the web, but negative criticism always bugs me. I realize I have to take it anyway, but I can’t help wondering if everyone feels the same way, no matter how much positive backup I receive.

As web designers and developers we have to just keep on building, and improving on current technologies. There’s always going to be a new language to learn, program to master, site to build, it’s just a matter of having the drive to accomplish everything

I am a big fan of newsvine but I don’t understand the whole money aspect of it. Why would I want to write a post on newsvine itself instead of writting it on my own blogs and then seeding that link. I would drop the whole ad share revenue aspect of the site and focus on what it is that makes newsvine so great. Just my two cents but from talking to other newsvine users…they tend to agree.

Nine: We think it’s great that most people don’t put the revenue-generating aspect at the tops of their list, because frankly, if you’re looking to make a million dollars by posting an article a week, you’re going to be disappointed. Newsvine is first and foremost a place to read, write, and interact with the news. The only reason we offer revenue-sharing is that where users add value to Newsvine, we’d like to give some of that value back in return.

Also keep in mind that people who already maintain active blogs are but a small slice of who we expect to see on the site everyday. If you already maintain a blog, the utility in using the “writing” aspect of the Vine is obviously a bit lower, but not everyone fits into this category.

Greetings Mike. I stumbled upon your website, thought I would point something out. I have never been to Gather.com or Newsvine.com prior to this. When I went to newsvine I did not see an “About” page that tells me what the company/service is about. Perhaps you don’t intend to put it until beta testing is finished but I think it would be a good idea for those who stumble upon it like myself. I signed up anyways just to see. :)