Thursday 7 June 2012 10.56 EDT
First published on Thursday 7 June 2012 10.56 EDT

Non-goalscoring number nines

Stéphane Guivarc'h perfected the role for France in 1998, Luca Toni did something similar for Italy in 2006, and even Spain at the last World Cup is a decent example – Fernando Torres finished goalless, and David Villa found the net only when he'd started wide on the left.

International football hasn't been a fertile ground for false nines, but various centre-forwards contribute more to their team with link-up and hold-up play than goalscoring prowess. Russia's Aleksandr Kerzhakov is a fine example – always moving towards the channels, dragging centre-backs away and making space for the runs of Andrey Arshavin, Alan Dzagoev and Roman Shirokov. Robin van Persie enjoyed an incredible season for Arsenal in front of goal, but he will move towards play and tee up Wesley Sneijder, who outscored van Persie at the World Cup.

Hélder Postiga's job is to set up Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani, and Sweden's forward (Johan Elmander or Markus Rosenberg) will be pushing the opposition back and making room for Zlatan Ibrahimovic in his deep-lying role. Even the Czech Republic's Milan Baros, formerly a head-down poacher, has improved his all-round game and will look to bring wide forwards Vaclav Pilar and Jan Rezek into play.

Of the established nations, few strikers have been assured of their place. Germany have Miroslav Klose or Mario Gómez, Holland experimented with Van Persie wide and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar up front, Karim Benzema had a challenge from Olivier Giroud, England may start Andy Carroll or Danny Welbeck, Spain have a three-way choice between Torres, Fernando Llorente and Álvaro Negredo. A couple of goalless games will see supporters calling for a change up front, but the side's coach might be entirely content with the all-round work of the centre-forward, despite the lack of goals.

Little variety in formations

The 2010 World Cup was fascinating from a tactical point of view, because various non-European countries eschewed a four-man defence in favour of a back three. There was variety with those systems, too – New Zealand's defensive 3-4-3 contributed to their status as the only unbeaten side in the competition, whereas Chile's energetic 3-3-1-3 under Marcelo Bielsa sealed their status as the neutrals' choice. Elsewhere, there was North Korea's ultra-defensive 5-1-2-1-1 that frustrated Brazil for long periods, Mexico's tremendously exciting flexible three/four-man defence, while Uruguay used a different formation in almost every match.

At this tournament, 15 of the 16 nations will start with a back four. The only possible exception is Italy – perhaps inevitably, given the popularity of a three-man defence across Serie A: 17 of the 20 sides played that system at least once in 2011-12, with Udinese, Napoli and Juventus doing so most successfully. However, centre-back Andrea Barzagli's injury is a huge blow to coach Cesare Prandelli's hopes of playing an effective back three. Most international coaches fear they don't have enough time on the training ground to try something different at the back, but Barzagli's existing relationship in a 3-5-2 with Juventus team-mates Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini gave Prandelli a distinct advantage.

With Barzagli out, Daniele De Rossi could drop into the backline, a position he occasionally played for Roma under Luis Enrique. Chiellini says that won't be a problem – "De Rossi played his first game as a centre-back against Juventus, and he was the best player on the pitch" – but it's not perfect, and in turn weakens the Azzurri midfield. Happily, even if Prandelli decides against a back three, he'll choose a midfield diamond, which is also likely to be unique in the competition.

Formational diversity will otherwise rely on movement. Russia's two wide players, Arshavin and Dzagoev, move quickly into the centre of the pitch from a 4-3-3, making the system more like a Christmas Tree, 4-3-2-1. Spain, meanwhile, perfect the art of dropping a midfielder into the defence and pushing the full-backs forward, turning a rough 4-3-3 into a 3-4-3. At the World Cup it was generally Sergio Busquets who did that, but in recent friendlies it has been Xabi Alonso to aid his long-range passing, although he looks uncomfortable on the rare occasions possession is lost, meaning he becomes the primary central defender.

Reactive football

Don't expect to see much pressing. Spain will close down well and Germany have become a more proactive side in the past couple of years. Aside from the two favourites, Russia and Ukraine are both energetic without the ball. But 2012 has been the year of reactive football, and the two European club finals were won by organised, counter-attacking sides, Chelsea and Atlético Madrid. They overcame Bayern Munich and Athletic Bilbao respectively, teams that recorded huge possession figures. In domestic leagues there was a similar pattern – Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund didn't dominate possession like Barcelona and Bayern, but were far better at transitions. These are isolated incidents, and the pattern is so far coincidental rather than conclusive – but international coaches will have been inspired.

Don't expect a goalfest

Looking at it another way, how many world class centre-backs will be on show at this tournament? Europe's best three over the past two seasons are non-European (Thiago Silva), haven't qualified (Vincent Kompany) or might not start (Mats Hummels). The four favourites – Spain, Holland, Germany and France – would all point to their defence as the weakest area of the team. But this probably won't result in a goalfest – coaches know their defensive weaknesses, and will therefore protect their backlines with very deep midfields.

Exciting substitutes

With most coaches looking for positional discipline from their wide players and intelligent, considered link-up play from their strikers, each country's bright new hope looks set to be omitted from the starting XI. For exciting, mazy dribbles, we'll have to look to the bench. Greece, for example, will have Ioannis Fetfatzidis – a 5ft 5in right-winger who runs directly with the ball, has tremendous upper body strength and cuts inside from the right on to his left foot. Inevitably, he's the 'Greek Messi'. Doing something similar from the other flank is Holland's Luciano Narsingh. Holland will have other, more established substitutes – Rafael van der Vaart, Luuk de Jong and Dirk Kuyt – but Narsingh's directness makes him the ideal supersub.

Portugal's young Benfica striker Nelson Oliveira is behind Postiga and Hugo Almeida in the pecking order, but offers more pace, better movement and probably a bigger goal threat, too. Italy's Fabio Borini and Sebastian Giovinco offer great pace and penetration, while England have Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Ireland have James McClean.

From the favourites, Germany's options will be Mario Götze, Marco Reus and André Schürrle, Spain have will have Cesc Fábregas, Pedro Rodríguez and Jesús Navas, and France have Hatem Ben Arfa, Jérémy Ménez and Mathieu Valbuena. All will be more direct than the player they replace. It's disappointing that so many exciting youngsters will start on the bench – but it means tactical substitutions and intelligent use of the 23-man squads will be crucial.