Sunday, December 13, 2009

The Globes sometimes throw in really interesting critical darlings that don't have much of a shot at Oscar (like Mulholland Drive or Eastern Promises) and sometimes they latch on to brand new movies that nobody cares about the next day (The Great Debaters) so, really, who the hell knows?!? Which is why I'm just tossing up my hands and predicting The Last Station. But honestly it feels like there's about 12 pictures that might be nominated. You could even see The Road surprising (they have a documented thing for Viggo) The reason I'm ignoring Avatar is that it just barely started screening. I don't know when the HFPA starting voting but the BFCA ballots, for example, were due on Saturday, roughly 36 hours after the first Avatar screenings... at least here in NYC. And based on when the online reports starting pouring in I suspect LA wasn't able to see Avatar much earlier. I know for certain from speaking to critics from various voting bodies that some of them had to turn in ballots before Avatar had ever screened.

Best Picture Comedy/Musical

(500) Days of Summer

It's Complicated

Julie & Julia

Nine

A Serious Man

There are several ways this could go. I'm not sure why I'm ignoring The Proposal, The Hangover or In the Loop. Must my predictions make sense? Back off! I wanted to throw caution to the wind and stick Sherlock Holmes in there but I couldn't decide what to spurn. It is brand new and they're sometimes totally in-the-moment. I'm really rooting for (500) Days to win attention outside of indie type prizes and if it's going to it starts here. I'm still surprised it didn't blossom into a bigger hit with the public.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

Clint Eastwood, Invictus

Rob Marshall, Nine

Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

They like "name" directors so I'm throwing Eastwood in even though I'm (foolishly) not predicting Invictus for a spot on their BP list.

Best Actress, Drama

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Carey Mulligan, An Education

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Hilary Swank, Amelia

I'm throwing Swank in instead of Abbie Cornish (Bright Star) because I'm a masochist and sometimes the Globes truly punish me for loving them as I do. It's like they're continually daring me to break up with them. Think of all those years they stayed devoted to my other nemesis the Zeéeeee!

there's probably only room for one of these guys... which?

Best Actor, Drama

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

George Clooney, Up in the Air

Colin Firth, A Single Man

Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Tobey Maguire, Brothers

I suspect there'll be one big surprise here. So I went with Maguire in Brothers since I did see a gazillion HFPA voters fawning all over him at a Brothers event. I'm rooting for rising dependable thespians like Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker or Sam Rockwell in Moon to surprise here but I suspect the Globes obvious preference for household names means that we'll hear one of these three names called: Tobey, Viggo (The Road) or Johnny (Public Enemies) when the nominations are announced tomorrow. Am I crazy?

Best Actress, Comedy

Marion Cotillard, Nine

Zooey Deschanel, (500) Days of Summer

Michelle Pfeiffer, Chéri

Meryl Streep, It's Complicated

Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Common wisdom has it that the Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy Globe has been narrowed down to a double dose of La Streep, "Luisa Contini", and a certain resurgent romcom queen leaving very little room -- 1 spot actually -- for anyone else. So the Globes are going to have to choose between big stars of the moment like Amy Adams or indie darlings like Zooey or fall back on old favorites like a Sarah Jessica Parker or a Michelle Pfeiffer. At this point nobody is really talking about Chéri but it might (very tentative might) not be wise to count Pfeiffer out, even without the schmoozing factor that can help you secure a Globe nod. "Why?" You ask wisely in an already crowded field "One reason" I respond. "Globe history."

There was a time where she could do no wrong with them: she was nominated six consecutive times for Best Actress (1989-1994) a feat that, as far as I recall, has never been matched. Not even by Meryl Streep (who has far more nominations in total --23!-- but not consecutively for best actress in a motion picture). On the other hand: They passed Michelle over when she really needed them for White Oleander (2002) in favor of a totally throwaway performance (Cameron Diaz in Gangs of New York) so 1994 may well be ancient history for which they have no nostalgia whatsoever. To make a long story short: I'm being silly and guessing that they ignore Bullock (who they can nominate elsewhere in drama) and go for a former flame. Hooray, wishful thinking!

Best Actor Comedy

Bradley Cooper, The Hangover

Matt Damon, The Informant!

Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine

Robert Downey Jr., Sherlock Holmes

Joseph Gordon-Levitt, (500) Days of Summer

I'm sure I'm forgetting someone. Why else would this one seem so easy?

Best Supporting Actress

Mariah Carey, Precious

Penélope Cruz, Nine

Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

Julianne Moore, A Single Man

Mo'Nique, Precious

I know, I know... but it would be rather like the Globes to embrace a huge pop star that Oscar won't go for so I'm saying the surprise is Carey in Precious. Look, unlike many prognosticators I don't care too much about my success ratio. I'm way more interested in teasing out the 'what if' possibilities. And they've previously nominated Beyoncé, Courtney Love and Madonna so why not risk it?

Best Supporting Actor

Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated

Matt Damon, Invictus

Alfred Molina, An Education

Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

If there's a surprise omission here I think we might see, or rather, not see Alfred Molina. We've been taking his candidacy for granted. The Globes might say we've overestimated his Oscar chances. I also wonder if they might shove Baldwin into the lead actor comedy category.

Still more...

Screenplay: An Education, Inglourious Basterds, The Last Station, Precious, Up in the AirAnimated Feature:Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Ponyo, UpSong: "Weary Kind" Crazy Heart, "I See in Color" Precious, "Cinema Italiano" Nine, "Take it All" Nine, "All is Love" Where the Wild Things AreScore:Avatar, Coco Avant Chanel, The Informant!, The Princess and the Frog, Up

Those final ones are all kind of tossed off. Predicting is exhausting and tomorrow it's obsolete anyway. Stay tuned.

More would be Globe prophets...And the Winner Is... predicts a shutout for The HangoverOscars Latin predicts... Ryan Reynolds for The Proposal (!)Abzee predicts... Michelle Pfeiffer for ChériCrumb by Crumb sees snubs for both Precious and An Education in Best Picture

if you're forgetting somebody must be Michael Stuhlbar for A Serious Man.

I know Hangover was a huge hit and all, but several others have failed to be nominated being much bigger stars with movies that while not that big of a hit were hit enough: Jack Black and Nacho Libre, Mike Myers and Austin Powers, Ben Stiller in Mary or Tropic Thunder, and many more.

The tend to nominate a lot of critical darlings from comedies in the Best Actor category, their support for broad comedies with not that much critical support are usually in the Best Actress category: SJP in Family Stone, Goldie in the one with Susan Sarandon, Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls...I can only recall two times when this didn't happen: SJP in the Sex movie and Reese in Alabama.

A lot of people are predicting Cooper for Hangover and Reynolds for Proposal, but I'll bet they got with Stuhlbarg before they go with Cooper.

Also, taking Sandra off both lists is just silly. Put her a least in Comedy, you might be Pfeiffer's biggest supporter, but Sandra will get in before she does.

I'm thinking that Kidman could get in for Nine. Not only because they loved her but also cause she's playing a star in Nine. Yes, I saw the movie and no she didn't deserve the nomination but remember last year in the supporting actor category there were 3 WTF's?!

You're predicting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Screenplay for An Education but not Best Picture? It's not like the Globes haven't embraced six nominees in this category before, and I think its chances are better than The Last Station's. It's also more typically Globesy than The Hurt Locker.

really, now. 0 nominations for The Lovely Bones?! Nathaniel, be objective! :) they love Peter Jackson. he was even nominated for King Kong. and lately more and more people have come to cheer the movie (Sasha Stone, Kris Tapley, etc).

Not even Stanley Tucci? a 2 time GG winner?

Not Saoirse Ronan? cause they were the 1st among the very few to nominate her for Atonement before the big Oscar break.

having diane kruger announcing the nominees with john krasinki and justin timberlake probably means she's nominated in supporting..or maybe it means Inglorious will have a shit load of nominations..either one..

Bestes Drama01. Up in the Air02. The Hurt Locker03. Inglorious Basterds04. Precious05. Invictus06. The Messenger07. An Education08. The Road09. Bright Star10. A Single Man11. Brothers12. Avatar13. The Lovely Bones14. Amelia15. The White Ribbon16. Stae Of Play

Beste Komödie / Musical01. Nine02. The Last Station03. A Serious Man04. It´s Complicated05. (500) DAYS OF SUMMER06. The Informant!07. Julie & Julia08. Hangover09. Brüno10. The Men Who Stare at Goats

Someone else mentioned that the Globes can sometimes categorize oddly. That "Crazy Heart" is like "Walk the Line" and might be considered in the musical/comedy section, and that "Up in the Air" might also be in comedy (like "Juno") rather than Drama.

IF SO - then you've got Bridges and Clooney in Comedy/Musical. Add Joseph Gordon Levitt, Daniel Day Lewis and one other (I'd guess Ryan Reynolds). Then there's plenty of room in Drama for all sorts of picks.

And Best Supporting Actress has looked kind of dull for weeks. Maybe the Globes might go either more European (Melanie Laurent, Diane Kruger in IB) or name/sexy, like Emily Blunt in "Sunshine Cleaning" or Rosamund Pike in "An Education" or Maggie Gyllenhaal in "Crazy Heart".

Adam Sandler for "Funny People?" None of Judd Apatow's movies have gotten Golden Globe love. Zero. Do you really feel like they're going to acknowledge what has been his worst-reviewed film?

@Nathaniel...I know you didn't acknowledge it, but I agree with you about the omission of Woody Harrelson in supporting for "The Messenger." It's the "Frozen River," "Half Nelson" thing all over again. He'll probably be nominated for nominated for an Oscar, but the film is just too small for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. Sharp predictions for the most part.

Question to put out there...is Michelle Monaghan officially done? I keep expecting her name to pop up somewhere, not because she was great, but because it's so manufactured for underdog awards traction. I guess the lack of recognition at the Indie Spirits was a death knell.

I'm thinking that the big surprise will be the performance of The Road. TWC and the HFPA have a long history and they love them some Viggo. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he made it into Best Actor-Drama and the movie got a Best Picture nomination.

Where's Woody Harrelson? I know that there was category confusion before, but at Gold Derby, Tom O'Neil wrote that he is now in supporting again where he belongs.

Also, if you don't want to put in Sandra Bullock, what about Renee Zellweger in My One and Only. I think that's a lot more plausible than Michelle Pfeiffer, who I think they're over.

I also agree with Agustin. If Diane Kruger is helping announce the awards, I bet she's going to be a nominee. The same with John Krasinski if you were also predicting their television nominees. They might even throw in her boyfriend Pacey while they're at it too.

as much as I hate to say it.I also think Renee has a better chance than Pfieffer...plus if Bradley Cooper gets nominated,they'd most probably want her there too...all the press and publicity they'd get!

Why isn't anyone talking about Natalie Portman in "Brothers" for Supporting Actress? I know the film's reception was mixed, but she received plenty of critical praise and she has a good history with the Globes (she beat out Cate Blanchett, Meryl Streep, Virginia Madsen, and Laura Linney back in 04) and we know how they are about their stars. I'd say she could get in over Moore (who I think is less of a safe bet than people think) or even Kendrick (if she splits votes with Farmiga)

anon -- that's a good point (Renée and Bradley) which i hadn't even thought of.

travis -- maybe because it's a lead role? i dunno. i think it's SO weird that they decided to campaign her for supporting. the categories are really weird this year what with the Marion Cotillard thing and this and every film, even the funny ones, marked as dramas.

It would be nice if Whip It got some love at the Globes. The Globes may think that Drew Barrymore's Grey Gardens honors will be enough though. I love Meryl,but I hope she does not get nominated for It's Complicated. That 5th spot really should go to Ellen Page or Michelle Pfeiffer. Those two had performances that are getting badly snubbed this award season. Sad :(

I also think Robert DeNiro can get in for Everybody's Fine in the comedy category because...he's Robert DeNiro

...and I hope you're wrong about Hilary Swank. I might throw up if she's nominated in Lead Actress Drama. Surely they've forgotten about that film already like the rest of the world? Maybe Saoirse Ronan or Abbie Cornish will take her place?

An Education almost feels like Rachel Getting Married in that if the voting bodies connect with the screenplay, they're signing onto love for the whole film--the direction, the supporting actors, the picture itself. Otherwise, I think that we'll see a lot of groups ONLY recognize Mulligan.

Either you JUST love Mulligan or you love the whole film. It's all about whether or not you buy the ending.

I read at least one report that the HFPA had an early screening of "Avatar" in L.A. on the 8th, specifically to give their voters a chance to see it before ballots were turned in. If that is the case, is that enough to put "Avatar" in the Drama mix? And would that give us a chance to watch a Cameron/Bigelow showdown (inebriated division)?

I put together globe comedy/musical predicts for actor/actress in the past week, and actress to me seems super easy - room for A surprisee as you mentioned, but other than that....

But you seem to think the actor comedy race is easy ---- I think they could go ga-ga for The Proposal and throw Reynolds in since I think there will be double Bullock - and I could even see Sacha Baron Cohen or Woody Harrelson for Zobmie Land. Both names I'm sure they'd like to have on the guest list.

Great predictions as always, Nathaniel. You're always my first stop during Oscar season. I don't know how The Last Station will do, and I don't think that 500 Days of Summer will be embraced quite so much (or at all, actually). In Best Comedy Actor, you did forget about one likely nominee - Michael Stulhbarg for "A Serious Man." Our predictions only match up in one category, and that's Best Supporting Actress. I'm excited for Tuesday - I'll be back to read your thoughts. My predictions are here: http://movieswithabe.com/search/label/Golden%20Globes

I did the same thing with An Education: Actress, Supporting, Screenplay. It felt right to me... it's just not BIG enough for best pic. And there are lots of other big, international, and/or "important" pictures.

But I may be biased because I wasn't a huge fan of the film. I guess I'm in the "only love Mulligan" group. I didn't like the ending. And then the whole thing just didn't stick with me much. I found it well done, but pretty standard and unmemorable.

Actually, I think I liked the directing most out of everything. More visually beautiful than films like this usually are, and very well paced. And obviously the performances were great. So I'd actually like to see Scherfig recognized, if anyone.

I totally agree on the Mariah nomination. I agree on the big stars/actors from hits being nominated. But I do not see Alfred Molina being nominated. HFPA nominated Tom Cruise last year. I expect Jake Gylenhaal or Steve Martin to take that slot.

But for the GG-Comedy Actor, you are not forgetting anyone. Michael Stuhlbarg doesn't exist for HFPA voters. :)