India is the fastest growing source of illegal immigrants in the
US (the number rose 43 percent between 2009 and 2014) and ranks fourth on the
list of the largest sources of illegal immigrants after Mexico, El Salvador and
Guatemala.

There are
currently around half a million illegal Indian immigrants in the US and
Trump wants the host country to accept the people his administration would
deport. This can have a severe negative impact on India.

It is not just
illegal immigrants that Trump is targeting. He would like to make legal
immigration into the country more difficult as well, according to a report
by Vox.

Remittances from
the US is an important source of foreign exchange for India. The US is
currently second only to Saudi Arabia as the biggest source of foreign
inward remittances. Remittances also make up to 4 percent of our GDP. This
will be dented if migration from India to the US reduces significantly.

#
IMPACT ON OUR BPO INDUSTRY

India’s
BPO industry could also bear the brunt of Trump’s strong anti-outsourcing
stance. He has proposed a 15 percent tax on American companies outsourcing
their work.

#
IMPACT ON GLOBAL TRADE

Another
worrying aspect of a Trump Presidency is the possible weakening of global
trade. He has proposed, at various times, differing tariff structures on
imports coming into America. For instance, he has proposed a 35 percent tax
on automobile imports from Mexico.

The US is an
extremely important partner in trade for India. Indian exports to the US
stood at $44.8 billion in 2015 while imports from the US was close to
$21.4 billion.

A tariff of the
kind Trump proposes will end up hurting India’s export-based domestic
industries.

TRUMP can turn out to be GOOD for India ...Reasons we
shouldnt worry ...A Different take !

#1:Outsourcing.

Trump has talked
about bringing back jobs, and one sector where India has been taking away jobs from America
is software services.

But Indian IT is already in the throes of a
major shift, with automation and not labour arbitrage becoming key to
growth. This means Indian IT was anyway going to reduce hiring
of lower-level competencies.

Under Obama, Indian IT has weathered a steep hike in H1B
visa fees. Under Trump, India IT may have to create more jobs
onshore in America, hiring a lot locally.

Once the Indian majors get the optics of local hiring
right, IT will grow again. Trump, moreover, is going to emphasise tech
even more, having indicated more investments in areas like cyber security. This is going to increase
demand for IT manpower, not reduce it. India will benefit ultimately.

#2:
Pharma diatribe.

Trump said
“we’ve got to get our drug industry back. Our drug industry has been
disastrous. They’re leaving left and right. They supply our drugs, but
they don’t make them here, to a large extent. And the other thing we have
to do is create new bidding procedures for the drug industry because
they’re getting away with murder. Pharma has a lot of lobbies and a lot of
lobbyists and a lot of power and there’s very little bidding on drugs.
We’re the largest buyer of drugs in the world and yet we don’t bid
properly and we’re going to start bidding and we’re going to save billions
of dollars over a period of time.”

Taking
the statement as a whole, it seems that Trump may emphasise bringing down drug
prices rather than merely focus on bringing back pharma manufacture back to the
US. He is committed to dumping Obamacare, the costly medical insurance scheme.

This means he
has to focus on lowering drug costs, and this means he has to tame the
pharma lobby – which is what he hinted at.

Obtaining drugs
for medicare will be subject to bidding pressures to bring down prices,
and in this scenario, generics will have a larger role to play.

Can India, one of the world’s biggest sources of
generics, be left out of this process?

#3:
Defence.

Trump
talked about bringing down defence production costs, against through more
effective bidding procedures.

While
this will limit the US defence industry’s ability to gouge profits out of
defence budgets, the resultant cost cuts can also benefit India as we become one of the major defence
equipment markets for American companies.

This
will improve our leverage with a Trump administration, since we will be
buying American goods and creating local jobs. And we could also be
manufacturing in India some of the components of defence
equipment as part of set-offs.

#4:
Geopolitics.

Trump’s softer
approach to Russia is good news for India’s own efforts to contain China.

The Obama
administration’s sanctions against Russia and Vladimir Putin for the
latter’s aggressive policies towards former Soviet republics has pushed
this traditional Indian ally closer into the Dragon’s
embrace.

If Trump
reverses this at least partially, it will drive a wedge between Russia and
China, improving India’s geopolitical options in Asia.

As for Pakistan, no US
administration can afford to reduce it to a complete pariah as India would like, but Trump is unlikely to give
it as much of a free pass on Islamist terrorism as Obama had given it. India should not be unhappy with this shift in
emphasis, even though deterring Pakistan will remain our job.

#5: US revival and growth.

Trump
did not talk much about his plans for stimulating the US economy, but
there is talk of a $1
trillion investment in public infrastructure, which cannot but increase demand for imports from the rest
of the globe.

The
shift of stimulus from monetary to fiscal policy is good for the world, as
it will boost demand. The Fed’s zero-interest rate policy helped Wall
Street more than the Main Street, as speculators made billions. The shift
to fiscal stimulus may mean higher inflation, but it will get the US
economy moving faster. There is only so much cheap money can do.

For
much of the last decade, China was the world’s main growth engine; 2017
could see the US taking over. That is good for everybody, including India.

India should formulate a totally pragmatic
approach for dealing with Trump. This would be different than the typical
ideological approaches Indians have tended to use in international
affairs. In other words, do not pigeon hole Trump into Left/Right
categories. Understand his top priorities as president, and make concrete
deals that are free of lofty ideologies.

# On BHALUCHISTAN / Pakistan

India’s most important diplomatic offensive
should be on Baluchistan. Convince Trump that a game changer would be to
free Baluchistan from Pakistan by supporting the Baluchi freedom movement.
This will involve US military intervention. And it will change the map of
the region forever.

Afghanistan
will get access to the sea via Baluchistan, and the US will no longer have
to suck up to Pakistan for supplying its troops. Afghans will love this
freedom from the Pakis.

So
will the other Central Asian “stan” countries that are presently
landlocked. A potential new sea access for Russia will also be a
negotiating card to deal with Putin. Pakistan will lose its geostrategic
positioning, a card it has played very skillfully for too long.

For
its part, India should offer military help in
Afghanistan, but only if USA guarantee’s an independent Baluchistan. This
will be a win-win deal of a kind that is right up Trump’s alley. Russia
may decide to join. A clandestine or indirect role for Israel should also
be discussed. As a side benefit, this might also open a new door in
negotiating with Iran, given its strategic interests concerning
Baluchistan.

# Diplomatic Officials

Senior
Indian military officials should lead
strategic discussions with Trump.

India should avoid sending the standard team
of Indian diplomats because Americans
appreciate clear-cut, no-nonsense dealmakers rather than woolly-headed
poets or ideologues.

This pragmatism
will be even more applicable in dealing with Trump.

India should also consider appointing some
ex-military person as its ambassador to the USA. This US relationship
should be a top priority for Ajit Doval.

# On H1B visas

Issues
like H1B visa are important, no doubt.

But
corporate India and corporate America are already
closely aligned on this.

Trump
will listen to corporate America. That is a good channel to use.

# On International institutions

The US’
trade deficit with India is nowhere close to the deficit with China ($23
billion as against $367 billion in 2015).

Given the fact
that Trump will most likely flout WTO
rules and try to apply selective trade barriers, India
should seize any opportunity to strike good trade deals with the US.

India should
also expect Trump to significantly shake up the status quo in established
global institutions and should take advantage of such a situation.

Maybe Trump will
disrupt the G20/G7, the NSG, the UNSC, climate change agreements, etc. The
onus would be on New Delhi to bargain for a more favourable position in
these international institutions.