Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Window on Eurasia: Crimea Shows Russia Can Absorb South Osetia Now without Worrying about West, Amelina Says

Paul
Goble

Staunton, September 17 – Russia can
annex South Osetia without worrying about the reaction of the West, Yana
Amelina says, but it must do so in the near future or both Russia and South
Osetia will face “quite dangerous geopolitical explosions” in the Caucasus
given the reordering of power relations in that region.

She said that most Osetians have
long wanted this and that “now many Osetian politicians and activists in North
and South Osetia, including those who earlier supported the development and
strengthening of independence consider that a suitable moment [for
re-unification] has come and that the issue must be resolved.”

Amelina argued as she has often over
the past several years that the Osetians would benefit because their “divided”
people would be reunited, their security issues would finally and completely be
addressed, and they would see their economy boom because of its inclusion in
the larger Russian market.

At the same time, she said, Russians
now would welcome such a move. “After the return of Crimea,” she said,
questions like “’but what will the West say’” have lost their importance. “The patriotic wave which has swept over all
of Russia with the Crimean events clearly testifies that the inclusion of the
Republic of South Osetia would be received in a
positive way.”

But Amelina warned that there is only a narrow window for
Russia to act.“If in the foreseeable
future reunification does not take place, then South Osetia will encounter sufficiently
dangerous geopolitical challenges” and those challenges will inevitably affect
the Russian Federation as well.

Given that in her words “small states” like Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Georgia “objectively do not have the geopolitical, human,
material and moral resources needed for full-scale development,” it is “obvious”
that outside powers are going to play an increasing role there. Russia must
take the lead, she says, and annex South Osetia.