Former BusinessInsider writer Dan Frommer has put together a compelling infographic over at his new blog SplatF that explains pretty clearly why those who were expecting an iPhone 5 on Tuesday weren’t thinking so rationally:

He finishes off with a key bit of analysis:

Most people are on 2-year mobile contracts and don’t upgrade every year. Apple is designing with that in mind. And there are a few key things that might go into Apple’s next radical iPhone redesign that aren’t quite ready or mainstream: NFC technology and 4G LTE.