We Are One Black Swan Event Away From A Major Market Shift

2018-09-18

This week we look back at the gold market from 2001 onward, alongside the DOW, US Dollar index, and other financial sectors. Societal tensions are reaching new highs between parties. Pair this with uncertainty in the currency markets and you have a recipe for a market shift. We are now just one black swan event away from a major market change. Be ahead of the curve and prepare now.

We Are 1 Black Swan Event Away From A Major Market Shift

Welcome back to gold rural radio. Your weekly recap and outlook on the precious metals markets and the underlying technicals and fundamentals that move those markets. How quickly a week happens and how quickly a few years half and how quickly we forget things and move on with our lives.

But how quickly our emotions can come back to a certain topic and that topic this week is the 9/11 event from 2001. Everybody’s remembering it this week so we will too. We’re going to talk about where gold was at that time. Gold was it to seventy an ounce on that day 271 I think was the bottom. And since that day we have not seen gold at 270. He came back down a couple months later in 2001 and tested that. But it has not been back to that number it’s been in a steady bull market going up from 270 since 2001 and just under seven years later from 2001 gold was above a thousand. So we had a fourfold move in gold after one of the biggest events in world history. So I put that out there because where are we now. We’re sitting at about 1200 Gold’s just above 2200 today on Wednesday. And where are we going from here. Well we could talk about the technicals as we often do on this show and then we could also talk about anything pending that could be another type of 9/11 event that totally changes the world because I think the 9/11 event in 2001 totally changed the mindset of investors to ask themselves if this can happen. What else can happen and if the financial markets are this vulnerable after something like that happens then what. What do you think.

Miles Yeah Robert I think it definitely shows at least the short term vulnerability. And just just how people can react to things. I mean obviously the September 11th attacks you and I were both in college when that happened. I remember that happening I think like the Kennedy assassination for our generation it’s the thing that everybody remembers where they were when it took place. Everybody remembers I was ironically in physics class of all places. I think I was sleeping in that morning because I remember sitting on my couch watching the news with roommates and thinking to myself OK do I need to go out of school and join the military or are we going to war. You know it’s one of those real life shattering earth changing events for everybody. And it was certainly market changing or at least aggressively market driving you know looking back at the time you talk about the lows we put in we had actually put a low in a few months prior in the gold price before that took place. We had popped up it was probably going to continue going lower than that.

It just halted on that day and like you said it never came back down to it again even though 9/11 might not be front and center of your mind on a daily basis. I think that it is playing into the subconscious of a lot of people in the markets and it’s something that you live with and you move forward with and you make decisions based on things that have affected you in the past.

And I think it has played into the markets especially with the price of gold John Tory who who’s not with us this week about loves to talk about the geopolitical and the fundamentals and you look at the relations with the Middle East over that time period. You look at what oil pricing has done over that same time period. I mean I remember back back when when Dawn McAvaney the founder of our company was talking about hundred dollar oil and people told him he was crazy no hundred dollar oil is which we’ve hit just seems like a spit away. Where where we were pushing up to what about 70 bucks on the oil price again right now and it doesn’t show any sign of stopping. So you have these economic drivers you have these political drivers but you can also have these events that take place that drive.