Well he does assume the conclusion in all his posts. Its clear that Android is doomed in his head, and in the heads of some forum members of AI.

The rest of the world is not that convinced.

The only post worth while from DED since he got here was the one about Samsung's profits not exceeding Apple's. He probably assumed the conclusion there too, but at least the facts were on his side when he concluded his assumption.

It's worth remembering that DED's Android predictions are almost always wrong. This is what happens when you draw a conclusion and then go looking for evidence to support your conclusion, rather than looking at the evidence and then drawing a conclusion based on the evidence.

Can you please provide examples where DED has been wrong about Android?Edited by darthW - 7/29/13 at 11:10am

Hackers' discovery that "most of the Google TV code was reused" for Chromecast, specifically that "the bootloader, kernel, init scripts, binaries, are all from the Google TV," lends credence to a report by the Wall Street Journal that described an Android TV prototype developed under Andy Rubin and shown in private at CES at the beginning of this year.

Why is there a private showing at a public event?

This happens at pretty much all of these trade shows. Companies typically call them "whisper suites". They disclose upcoming roadmaps, etc under NDA for their partners and important customers. This is done at the public events because everyone will be physically in the same location anyway. So the logistics of doing this is much better for everyone involved.

Applications that have been retired by Google, either because of integration with other Google products, or through lack of support:[23]

Hotpot – was a local recommendation engine that allowed people to rate restaurants, hotels etc. and share them with friends. Loading google.com/hotpot now gives an Error 502 page, and as Google explained,[24] the project has moved to the Google Places service.
Google Checkout – online payment processing service provided by Google aimed at simplifying the process of paying for online purchases. Webmasters can choose to implement Google Checkout as a form of payment. Merged into Google Wallet.
Aardvark – Social search utility which allows people to ask and answer questions within their social networks. It uses people's claimed expertise to match askers with good answerers.
Google Answers – Online knowledge market offered by Google that allowed users to post bounties for well researched answers to their queries. Discontinued on November 28, 2006; still accessible (as read-only).
Google Apps Standard Edition - Free. On December 6, 2012, Google discontinued the Google apps standard edition, which was previously downgraded with features like maximum 10 users.[25]
Audio Ads – Radio advertising program for US businesses. Rolled out on May 15, 2007 through the AdWords interface. Discontinued on February 12, 2009.
Google Base – Google submission database that enabled content owners to submit content, have it hosted and made searchable. Information within the database was organized using attributes.
Blogger Web Comments (Firefox only) – Displays related comments from other Blogger users.
Google Building Maker – web based building and editing tool to create 3D buildings for Google Earth. Retired on June 4, 2013.
Google Docs – Integrated in Google Drive.
Google Browser Sync (Firefox) – allowed users of Mozilla Firefox to synchronize their web browser settings across multiple computers via the Internet. Discontinued in June 2008. Google Chrome has similar functionality built-in.
Google Buzz – social networking service integrated with Gmail service allowing users to share updates, photos, videos, and more at once. It let users make conversations about things they found interesting. It was released on February 9, 2010. Discontinued by end of 2011.[26]
Catalogs – Search engine for over 6,600 print catalogs, acquired through optical character recognition. Discontinued January 2009.
City Tours – overlay to Maps that shows interesting tours within a city
AdWords#Google Click-to-Call – allowed a user speak directly over the phone, for free, to businesses he/she finds on Google search results pages. Discontinued in 2007.
Google Code Search – Search engine for programming code found on the Internet. Shut down on January 15, 2012.[27]
Dashboard Widgets for Mac (Mac OS X Dashboard Widgets) – Collection of mini-applications including Gmail, Blogger and Search History.
Google Deskbar – desktop bar with a built-in mini browser. Replaced by a similar feature in Google Desktop. Discontinued as of May 8, 2006.
Desktop (Mac OS X, Windows 2000 SP3+, XP, Vista, 7, Linux): Desktop search application that indexes emails, documents, music, photos, chats, Web history and other files. It allows the installation of Google Gadgets.
Google Dictionary – it was first introduced as part of Google Translate, it then became a standalone service that allowed searching of words and phrases from over 22 languages.
Google Directory – Collection of links arranged into hierarchical subcategories. The links and their categorization were from the Open Directory Project, but were sorted using PageRank. It was closed on July 20, 2011.
Dodgeball – Social networking service for mobile phones. Users could text their location to the service, which would then notify them of crushes, friends, friends' friends and interesting venues nearby. Development ceased on January 14, 2009; discontinued over the next few months; replaced by Google Latitude.
Google Fast Flip – Online news aggregator that mimics the experience of flicking through a newspaper or magazine, allowing visual search of stories in manner similar to microfiche.
Free Search – free code to embed site/web search into a user's website. Discontinued; replaced by Google Custom Search.
Google Friend Connect – an online service that allowed website and blog owners to add social features to their websites. Discontinued on March 1, 2012, and replaced by Google+'s pages and off-site Page badges.[28]
Google Health – allows a user to store, manage and share all of his/her health and wellness information in one central place. Development ceased June 24, 2011; accessible until January 1, 2012; data available for download until January 1, 2013.
Gears (Google Chrome, Firefox, Internet Explorer and Safari): A browser plug-in that enables development of off-line browser applications.
GOOG-411 –Google's directory assistance service, which can be used free of charge from any telephone in the US and Canada. Discontinued as of November 12, 2010.
Hello – allowed a user to send images across the Internet and publish them to his/her blog(s). Discontinued on May 15, 2008.
Google Image Labeler – game that induces participants to submit valid descriptions (labels) of images in the web, in order to later improve Image Search.
Google Insights for Search – Google Insights for Search was a service by Google similar to Google Trends, providing insights into the search terms people have been entering into the Google search engine. Google Insights for Search has been discontinued since September 27, 2012 by Google and Now Google Insights has merged in Google Trends.
Google Labs – allows users to test and demonstrate new Google products.
Jaiku – Jaiku is a social networking, micro-blogging and lifestreaming service comparable to Twitter.
Joga Bonito – Soccer community site, similar to services such as MySpace, in that each member had a profile, and could join groups based on shared interests. The service allowed a user to meet other fans, create games and clubs, access athletes from Nike, and watch and upload video clips and photos.
Google Lively – 3D animated chat program launched on July 9, 2008 and closed December 31, 2008.[29] (Windows XP, Vista)
Knol – service that enabled subject experts and other users to write authoritative articles related to various topics. Content were not accessible after October 1, 2012.[30]
Local – Local listings service, before it was integrated with mapping. The merged service was then called Google Local, which was further renamed to Google Maps due to popular demand. Google Local still exists, but only for Google Mobile Search.
Marratech e-Meeting – Web conferencing software, used internally by Google's employees. Google acquired the software from creator Marratech on April 19, 2007. Discontinued on February 19, 2010.
Mashup Editor – (deprecated as of January 14, 2009) Web Mashup creation with publishing facilities, syntax highlighting, debugging.
Meebo – Create a profile and advertise on the network. Discontinued on June 6, 2013
Google Mini – Reduced capacity, lower cost version of the Google Search Appliance.
MK-14 – 4U rack mounted server for Google Radio Automation system. Google Inc. has sold its Google Radio Automation business to WideOrbit Inc.[31]
Google Music Trends – Music ranking of songs played with iTunes, Winamp, Windows Media Player and Yahoo Music. Trends were generated by Google Talk's "share your music status" feature.
Notebook – web clipping application for saving online research. It is no longer supported by Google, and was replaced with Google Docs. The tool permits users to clip text, images, and links from pages while browsing, save them online, access them from any computer, and share them with others. Google stopped development on Notebook and no longer accepts sign-ups. While old users can still access their notebooks, newcomers are offered to try other services such as Google Docs and Google Bookmarks.[32]
Google Pack – Collection of applications – some Google-created (including Google Earth, Google Desktop, Picasa, Google Talk, and Google Chrome), some not. (Supported Windows XP, Vista, 7)
Google Page Creator – webpage-publishing program, which can be used to create pages and to host them on Google's servers. However, to focus on another Google Webpage-publishing service called Google Sites, new sign-ups are no longer accepted since 2008. And all existing content on Page Creator has been transferred to Google Sites in 2009.
Personalized Search – Search results personalization, now fully merged with Google Accounts and Web History.
Photos Screensaver – Slideshow screensaver as part of Google Pack, which displays images sourced from a hard disk, or through RSS and Atom Web feeds.
Picnik – online photo editor. Most features and effects have been moved the Google+ photo manager. Closed on April 19, 2012.[33]
Google PowerMeter – free energy monitoring tool that allows you to view your home's energy consumption from anywhere online. Discontinued September 16, 2011.
Public Service Search – Non-commercial organization service, which included Google Site Search, traffic reports and unlimited search queries. Discontinued in February 2007; replaced by Google Custom Search.
Google Reader – web-based news aggregator, capable of reading Atom and RSS feeds. It let users search, import and subscribe to feeds. The service also embedded audio enclosures in the page. Reader retired on July 1, 2013.[34]
Real Estate – Real estate listings in Google Maps, launched in July 2009 and discontinued February 10, 2011.[35]
Rebang (Google China) – Google China's search trend site, similar to Google Zeitgeist. As of 2010, part of Google Labs.[36][37]
Related Links – automatically brought fresh, dynamic and interesting content links to any website. Webmasters could place these units on their site to provide visitors with links to useful information related to the site's content, including relevant videos, news, searches, and pages. Discontinued on April 30, 2007.
Google Ride Finder – Taxi, limousine and shuttle search service, using real time position of vehicles in 14 US cities. Used the Google Maps interface and cooperated with any car service that wished to participate. Discontinued as of October 2009.
Google Refine – Tool for data cleansing and processing. It is now independent from Google.
SearchMash – Search engine to "test innovative user interfaces." Aside from its privacy policy and terms of service, no Google branding existed on the site. Discontinued on November 24, 2008.
Google SearchWiki
Send to Phone – Enabled a user to send links and other information from Firefox to his/her phone through text message. Discontinued as of August 28, 2008; replaced by Google Chrome to Phone.
Google Sets – Generates a list of items when users enter a few examples. For example, entering "Green, Purple, Red" emits the list "Green, Purple, Red, Blue, Black, White, Yellow, Orange, Brown." Described in its 2003 patent filing by creators Simon Tong and Jeff Dean as “an inside peek at how Google groups keywords by concept,” it was discontinued in mid-2011.[38]
Shared Stuff – web page sharing system, incorporating a share bookmarklet to share pages, and a page to view the most popular shared items. Pages could also be shared through third party applications, such as Delicious or Facebook. Discontinued on March 30, 2009.
Google Sidewiki – browser sidebar and service that allows contributing and reading helpful information alongside any web page; went online on September 23, 2009.
Slide.com
SMS – mobile phone short message service offered by Google in several countries, including the USA, Japan, Canada, India, Pakistan and China and formerly the UK, Germany and Spain. It allows search queries to be sent as a text message. The results were sent as a reply, with no premium charge for the service. It was turned off May 10, 2013.[39]
Spreadsheets – Spreadsheet management application, before it was integrated with Writely to form Google Docs & Spreadsheets. It was announced on 6 June 2006.
Squared – creates tables of information about a subject from unstructured data. Discontinued as of Sep' 2011.
Google Talk – Desktop instant messaging service that provided both text and voice communication. Replaced May 15, 2013 by Google Hangouts.
TV Ads – Method to place advertising on TV networks. Launched in 2007, the product was discontinued on August 30, 2012,[40] with all remaining active campaigns ending December 16, 2012.[41]
University Search – Listings for search engines for university websites.
U.S. Government Search – Search engine and Personalized Homepage that exclusively draws from sites with a .gov TLD.
Video Player (Mac OS X, Windows 2000, XP): Standalone desktop application that allows viewing videos from Google Video.
Google Video Marketplace
Voice Search – automated voice system for searching the Web using the telephone. Now called Google Voice Local Search, it is currently integrated on the Google Mobile web site.
Web Accelerator – application that used various caching technologies to increase load speed of web pages. It supported Windows 2000 SP3+, XP, and Vista, but is no longer available for download.
Writely – web-based word processor created by software company Upstartle, who were acquired by Google on March 9, 2006. On October 10, 2006, Writely was merged into Google Docs & Spreadsheets.
Google X – Re-designed Google search homepage. It appeared in Google Labs, but was removed the following day for undisclosed reasons. It consisted of the traditional Google search bar, but it was made to look like the Dock user interface feature of Apple's Mac OS X operating system.[42] Google did not release any official statement as to why the project was shut down.
Google Wave – Online communication and Collaborative real-time editor tool using richly formatted text, photos, videos, maps, and more. Development ceased on August 4, 2010. This product support is no longer available [turned off completely on April 30, 2012 by Google].[30]
Google Cloud Connect - Plugin to help people work in the cloud by automatically saving Microsoft Word files from Windows PCs to Google Drive. Shutdown April 30.[43]

It doesn't matter, the search itself is Google's revenue stream. They show adds, and make revenue.

I guess a lot of people click on sponsored links. I never click on the paid ads. But I know a lot of people do because I make a decent profit from Google with my Adsense pages, although they probably make more money selling my profile to their advertisers based on my search habits than I make from them with Adsense.

Either way iOS Google app with voice is head and shoulders above Siri, at least for search.

LG talks about interest in Android but is still in paid partnership with Microsoft to advertise the last gasping breath of that platform. And while it looks like Windows Mobile is nearly dead, Microsoft will likely devote as much marketing noise as it can to debut Windows Mobile 7 at the end of 2010, further giving Android the distraction of additional hydra heads to lop off.

With intense competition emerging between RIM, Palm, Bada, Symabian, Maemo, Windows Mobile, and Android, Apple will be best able to benefit from the strength between the iPhone, iPod, iTunes, and the new tablet.

This sets up why Android is far more likely to fail rather than to prosper or reach critical mass in 2010.

"Let me say what I really think"
"I think Google is a fantastic company on many levels, ranging from its commitment to supporting open, interoperable software development to its core business model that effectively churns out free (well, ad-supported) services that almost always work well and are quite reliable. I use Google’s services every day. I earn some money from Google AdSense from the properties that publish my articles. While I think the tech media sometimes gives Google a free pass in some areas where it deserves scrutiny, Google’s track record in playing fair, in supporting the environment, in treating its employees well, in not immediately selling out in human rights issues to gain access to China, and many other areas is much better than most of its peers.

As for Android, while I see lots of obvious problems that I think the media is ignoring or glossing over in their simplistic desire to write up a compelling underdog piece, I have never described Google’s smartphone plans as being a competitor or threat to the iPhone. My first article on the subject presented that the rumored “gPhone” was not going to be a hardware competitor to the iPhone at all, but rather a software platform that would target Windows Mobile. I was completely right."Many AI readers would disagree with DED.

Then there's this:
"In October 2007, I printed the Great Google GPhone Myth, taking apart the idea that Google would be directly competing against the iPhone, and describing that Google was really working on a free alternative to Windows Mobile as a conduit for getting its search and related services on a broader variety of mobiles. Google’s services were already on the iPhone.

In November, Google played its hand: it had organized a consortium of companies called the Open Handset Alliance to develop open standards for mobiles. The first product from the group would be Android, a mobile operating system built on the Linux kernel.

Google wasn’t getting into the phone handset business at all; it was only making sure that its mobile search products would not risk being marginalized by the threat of Windows Mobile on phones in the same way Microsoft had been working to leverage its PC monopoly to push Google search off the Windows desktop.So DED really didn't think that Android targeted Apple afterall. Again some AI members would have an issue with that. To be clear I would not be one of them. I actually agree with Daniel.http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2008/08/25/will-googles-android-play-dos-to-apples-iphone/

Talking about something he absolutely got right he nailed this one several years ago:

"After having proven itself unable to compete in web search and advertising, Microsoft has acquired technology from a company with management problems and has launched a wildly hailed attempt to catch up to Google using a dishonest campaign targeting the government. . .
Now, ill equipped to catch up, Microsoft is using its well equipped lobbyists to attack Google using government interference in lieu of competing against it in the marketplace. Ten years ago, Microsoft was defending its own monopoly to the government, although Microsoft’s monopoly was not legitimately won in the market as Google’s, but was instead massed together through shady business practices and competition suppression."http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2009/08/31/how-microsoft-got-bing-and-why-it-is-failing-to-matter/

If anyone is interested later I can link to DED articles that ended up pretty darn accurate too. It's not as tho he always misses and in at least his older articles he was right far more often than he was wrong. I still very often agree with his core ideas, just often disagree with how far he'll go and the tenuous links and claims he'll use in trying to prove them to everyone else. He's OK tho. It's the way he's chosen to make a living and he is pretty good at it.Edited by Gatorguy - 7/29/13 at 12:15pm

It's worth remembering that DED's Android predictions are almost always wrong. This is what happens when you draw a conclusion and then go looking for evidence to support your conclusion, rather than looking at the evidence and then drawing a conclusion based on the evidence.

WOW, RichL, I did read the article, the whole thing and guess what....you were Wrong!! Daniel actually made a bunch of very valid points back then that are very obvious today. And NO, he is not perfect like many Android fans I have met. But the majority of his article back in 2009 was very correct.

"If anyone is interested later I can link to DED articles that ended up pretty darn accurate too. It's not as tho he always misses and in at least his older articles he was right more often than he was wrong. I often agree with his core ideas, just often disagree with how far he'll go and the tenuous links and claims he'll use in trying to prove them to everyone else. He's OK tho. It's the way he's chosen to make a living and he is pretty good at it."

I am sure even Daniel will admit that he is not a seer of the future. Only wall street anal....yst claim that. LOL But what he does is show the past items and make a strong case for what is going on. I am sure he was not at any Apple board meeting with Schmitt there, but he clearly pointed out how google phones jumped to looking like the iPhone, very quickly. Just saying.

One last thing, try comparing DED with most Android fans or wall street anal...ysts etc. One does his best to present facts the rest post what they would like to see. A big difference.

Yeah and Amazon barely makes money either. Giving things away is not a profitable business model but what a boon for consumers!

The very best of socialism. Amazon employs thousands, generates business for thousands of companies who employ thousands and provide and awesome almost-at-cost service to consumers while trickling up meager profits to rich investors who contribute nothing.

Amazon does turn a profit, and their strategy doesn't conflict with what they tell their shareholders. You regard them as socialists based on their margins? I wonder if you even understand the term.

Well he does assume the conclusion in all his posts. Its clear that Android is doomed in his head, and in the heads of some forum members of AI.

The rest of the world is not that convinced.

The only post worth while from DED since he got here was the one about Samsung's profits not exceeding Apple's. He probably assumed the conclusion there too, but at least the facts were on his side when he concluded his assumption.

Hmmmm, I guess you would say that Microsoft is doing great too??? Cause they have not crashed yet??? Maybe we could say that the Titanic was not sinking, it was floating low in the water, then it disappeared, right??

Daniel is trying to look at past history over a period of time and make good guesses about a future direction. He does not say Android will disappear, just that Google may not be supporting it in the future. Gee - I wonder how the world might take that statement, if its ever made in public....... Android is DEAD, Google just announces it will not support any more updates..... Gee...

Interesting article and a good read for those not already aware of the details. Again, a bit long and wordy however for those of us that do already know.

I think it's clear that Android is being de-emphasised by Google lately, but I don't think the author really proves his case that its "on the way out." I find it to be more speculative and suggestive than based on any hard facts.

Rubin's ouster doesn't have to be about anything but the Motorola acquisition for example. ......
As for the premise, or the 'trigger' if you will for the whole piece, which is the apparent decision to use Chrome in the living room instead of Android,....

In short, there are other explanations for most of the main points here and .....

Edit: I guess I should add that even if Google is moving away from Android, it doesn't come close to really proving it's main assertion that the reason for this are the issues with intellectual property.

So what you are saying is that even if all these points are true, it is remotely possible that something else will happen. Yes. And its true that you can stand out in the rain in Florida and NOT get hit by lightening...... But...... its a pretty lame idea believe that you will not get hit.... the first time,,,, the third time..... when ever. I tend to bet on Android dying if Google openly admits that its not going to support it any more. Samsung might keep it around for a year or two, but with new items not working with it, It will die an eventual death.

Google simply has too much of their reputation tied up with Android to consider abandoning it. That makes no sense. If Samsung were to ditch Android for Tizen their sales would plummet if it did not allow access to Google Play store. They both need each other and tensions might get a little strained at times I don't see a divorce imminent. Of course if Samsung figures out a way to get 100% compatibility with Android apps and services that still run at native speed then I can see them ditching it and doing something similar to Amazon and their app store. But I hear lots of complaints about Amazon apps getting updates far slower. Take Modern War for example which is available for iOS, Android, and the Amazon version of Android as well. This is one of the top 10 earners weekly and has been for a long while. Both the iOS and Android versions of Modern War get very frequent updates, often every other week, but the Amazon version is far behind which puts players at a massive disadvantage.

I think Google may change things up a bit and perhaps tighten the rules a little, but I don't think they would consider shutting down Android completely anytime soon. They may be losing money on it but the backlash and bad PR they would suffer from such a move would be far larger.

Bionic is Google's replacement standard C library for Android, which replaces the GPL-licensed code in Linux to avoid entangling Android software in GPL-related licensing issues. It's also optimized for running on lower end devices than the mainstream version of Linux aimed at PCs and servers.

The license issue doesn't really apply. Glibc is LGPL, not GPL.
However, glibc is massive in size (especially with locale support compiled in).

A. Making Chromecast from. Chrome os would be needlessly complicated when they could strip down google tv which is built on ANDROID.

B. I Highly doubt they would let one man influence one of the world's largest acquisitions for a fleeting idea that wasnt thought out. No one has 12.5 billion to throw away... Motorola has a portfolio of 24,500 patents and patent applications that instantly bolsters Google's strength in the IP war

To help you understand:apple sued samsung, visa versa, Microsoft sued htc etc etc but no one is suing Microsoft, why? Because they hang their patents out for everyone to see and it was a brilliant move to make a public library of their thousands of patents to avoid such litigation. They saved millions this way.

This article is based on some truth and some apple fan boy garbage. I would love to read an android vs apple article that is not biased. I wont hold my breath.

Android won't be going anywhere, not while chrome os is in the background k ground anyway. I wouldn't buy a chrome os phone though, if that happened I might actually get an iPhone.

Google is certain to reaffirm its commitments to Android whenever necessary, but the writing on the wall appears very clear: Android's days appear to be numbered at Google.

While Google's mouth may say "commitment to Android," Google's commitment to nearly everything they have done outside of it's search business is public knowledge: Google doesn't stay committed to anything... Google is like an ADD child and likely to become bored with its new "shiny" diversion. Android and chrome -- no exception. As the article explains; first the updates get fewer per year then they begin to miss their release dates... The "Chrome" project will be similar.

The whole OS thing has cost Google dearly. Not just in money and as a distraction of management from their cash cow, but has permanently cost Google many business partners, most notably Apple. The Android experiment has even caused some once-friendly companies to actively undercut Google's ability to collect search-engine user data while also going head-to-head against Google in replacing Google's apps on non-android phones and tablets.

"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge

The thing about all these Google products is the fact that Google are an advert company specialising in software.

Apple are a hardware company specialising in design.

With those maps Apple are only waking up to the fact that software design makes or breaks a product.

Apple had woke up to the fact Google can't be trusted with Apple's customer's data. The less Google sees, the better. The less Google apps on your iDevice, the better.

In addition, Google deliberately went into competition to Apple with Apple's core product categories. Apple does not need to show its competitor's name in apps on Apple's home screen. Marginalize your competition. Diminish their strength. Compete with them on their home turf in advertising dollars. Give no quarter.

"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge

Andy Rubin has been moved to a separate team where he manages no one. He's in google purgatory. He's on his way out the door. It's all about Chrome now which it should've been in the first place.

I'm trying to think of a major pet tech product that wasn't already a core product surviving the managing executive getting the axe. Core meaning generating a significant percentage of the company profit.

Android won't suffer the same fate as Palm or Newton since its a major product line but expect all the new initiatives to be Chrome based and Android withers on the vine.

Allard got nuked by Sinofski and courier never even saw the light of day. These kinds of examples are common and you can judge the future of a product based on which exec got what.

Giving Android to the rival Chrome exec was like giving Rubin's daughter to Cinderella's evil step mom to raise.

"its" vs. "it's"; "desert" vs. "dessert".

As much as I'd love for this to be true, I think it may be too great a leap from the evidence presented to the conclusion drawn. It seems like there might be some rebranding at work and possibly weeding the code garden a little, but is that the same as dumping Android?

Wouldn't it be cool if Google decided not to develop their own OS outside of whatever they need to operate their core web offerings like Gmail et al, made nice with Apple and the two got together on Siri's search options and map source data?

I like the tone of the above article better, even if it is pretty old. Also, it takes into consideration the fact that we are here in the world of local applications, and the path to a web-based, (or perhaps thin client,) computing paradigm is not entirely certain. We are starting to see hesitant movements in this direction, but they are anything but robust. I think there are monumental issues with this evolutionary shift, and it isn't going to happen overnight. It's all well and good to run simplified text editing or basic photo editing software in a browser, but these things aren't going to replace, so much as compliment, traditional (local) applications until the frameworks are much more mature, and capable (think Java applet or HTML5... how do these, as yet, address themselves to robust programs?) I think if Android is replaced with a Chrome web-based paradigm, it will not happen far out of step with iOS being replaced with something similar. That is, the benefits of web-based applications will have to be self-evident and superior before we will see this transition taking place on a global, OS, scale. When will that be?

Eventually, you'd have to guess. Instant updates, hardware-independent services/apps, instant synchronization, portability... there are many benefits once the detriments are worked out (looking at you, ISPs.) Some of those hurdles are anything but simple, however. I would say don't hold your breath just yet.

This is a key point IMHO. Google has always been about the web and web apps. A browser based OS such as Chrome makes much more sense as "their" OS, than a thick client OS (whether that be native or Java/Dalvik) ever did.

The TV is the perfect platform for web apps. There are hundreds of millions of TVs that can serve as a monitor for serving up web apps. The TV is usually in a fixed place with wifi access. So spending $35 to make your TV a computer makes a lot of sense. I've always been of the opinion that web apps were stupid and inferior to a real computer. I'm changing my stance with regard to TVs. This is a brilliant strategic move on Google's part. Everyone already owns a $1,000-$2,000 monitor. For $35 you can make it a ChromeOS PC.

The article misses the mark. I don't think Google is ditching Android. I think they want to create a new TV platform and chromeOS is a better tool than Android. That doesn't mean ChromeOS is suddenly the preferred OS for mobile. I think AI called this one wrong.

EDIT: My comment isn't really about this article in particular, it's more in response to a recurring theme I've picked up on in Daniel's writing.

It must be rough to base a career off the reputation of being an Apple apologist. Sure there's advantages like getting chummy with Apple executives and people inside the company, but can it really be worth forcing yourself to believe crazy, wrong things? I'd hate myself if my ideology made me believe that everything Apple's competitors do is either incompetent, inferior, or malicious. Especially when Google, for example, is doing so many cool things. Maybe Daniel is not aware of this, but it is possible to love Apple and entertain critical thoughts about them. And just because they make great products doesn't mean others can't too.

The TV is the perfect platform for web apps.
...
This is a brilliant strategic move on Google's part. Everyone already owns a $1,000-$2,000 monitor. For $35 you can make it a ChromeOS PC.

This would be brilliant if true. Unfortunately not so much. Chromebooks aren't $200 because of the display. Even the dual core exynos 5 is sluggish at times running webapps.

Good webapp performance requires more CPU and RAM than lives inside $35 stick computers at the moment. The chromecast appears to me to have optimized hardware for video playback which is cool and all but a $50 roku is still hugely a much better deal.

For presentations it might be cool. But only with better cast support from office apps on android and iOS.

"Apple had woke up to the fact Google can't be trusted with Apple's customer's data. " I think that t long term, Apple want 100% of the advert money. Nothing comes cheap and getting nearer nothing from adverts was not making shareholders happy. I also now sense that some of Jobs anger centres round the fact that you can't easily hide NSA stuff in Android.

The death of Android is something I'd certainly like to see. Not because I dislike Android OS or even Google that badly. I'd like to see the death of Android destroy the hedge funds who have leveraged Android to hold down Apple's share price and who continually claim that Apple has no future growth due to Android. It would really put those greedy hedge funds in a quandary. I naturally blame Google for unleashing a free OS on the smartphone world for the sake of trying to destroy Apple's iPhone empire when they really didn't need to do it that way. Google could have licensed Android to a number of companies for a fair price and at least had some control over it.

It's just totally ridiculous to see a hundred companies churning out Android devices without the least bit of control each trying to undercut the other in price and quality. Google should have stuck to the search engine and ad business and left the smartphone business to others. The world doesn't need hundreds of models of smartphones. I honestly don't see what Google is getting out of Android. Is Android even delivering ads to consumers that well?

The death of Android is something I'd certainly like to see. Not because I dislike Android OS or even Google that badly. I'd like to see the death of Android destroy the hedge funds who have leveraged Android to hold down Apple's share price and who continually claim that Apple has no future growth due to Android. It would really put those greedy hedge funds in a quandary. I naturally blame Google for unleashing a free OS on the smartphone world for the sake of trying to destroy Apple's iPhone empire when they really didn't need to do it that way. Google could have licensed Android to a number of companies for a fair price and at least had some control over it.

It's just totally ridiculous to see a hundred companies churning out Android devices without the least bit of control each trying to undercut the other in price and quality. Google should have stuck to the search engine and ad business and left the smartphone business to others. The world doesn't need hundreds of models of smartphones. I honestly don't see what Google is getting out of Android. Is Android even delivering ads to consumers that well?

On the contrary: I see Google reining Android in, making it a more "closed platform." My evidence? Purchasing Motorola, beginning to offer "pure" experiences on Samsung, HTC, etc phones.

Dream on, author. Android isn't going away. But it is evolving. My prediction, within 3 years Android phones be sold by only Motorola. Samsung will go with Tizen and the others will either develop their own OS or fade away.

Just my .02

Google has proved itself in the last few years not to be shy about abandoning projects in the face of widespread consumer and developer dismay - Orkut, Wave, Reader, iGoogle to come soon - the list appears to be escalating in terms of usage numbers and popularity.

This is one aspect in which Mountain View seems to parallel Steve Jobs philosophy to the letter - deciding when it's time to kill, time to die...

All I know is if I were an Android-only developer, I'd cover all my bases by investing in other platforms - JavaME especially, since it is the closest relation to Android, and would benefit from a mass exodus of Java developers should Android suddenly bow out of the scene. A look up the software stack to Chrome and HTML5 would not go awry either, if that's where Google is headed.

It depends on which country you are in which platform you develop on. Those flat world sales and great US sales translate to IOS sales becoming even more non existent in some markets. That plastic iPhone is obviously hoping to reverse some of that .

EDIT: My comment isn't really about this article in particular, it's more in response to a recurring theme I've picked up on in Daniel's writing.

It must be rough to base a career off the reputation of being an Apple apologist. Sure there's advantages like getting chummy with Apple executives and people inside the company, but can it really be worth forcing yourself to believe crazy, wrong things? I'd hate myself if my ideology made me believe that everything Apple's competitors do is either incompetent, inferior, or malicious. Especially when Google, for example, is doing so many cool things. Maybe Daniel is not aware of this, but it is possible to love Apple and entertain critical thoughts about them. And just because they make great products doesn't mean others can't too.

Daniel Eran Dilger has been writing about Apple and has been pro-Apple wayyyy before Google appeared above the horizon as a major player. Just go rummage around in RoughlyDrafted.com and go back as far as you can to see the perspective, the big picture he brings to the computing landscape, from an era that predates the current mobile "post-PC" era which is still in its infancy. I'm glad that I did, because it revealed to me where the real "crazy, wrong" beliefs emanate from, and it's certainly not DED.

Do the names Paul Thurott, Rob Enderle, John Dvorak, Dan Lyons, Jack Schofield among a host of other anti-Apple "analysts" of yore ring a bell? Well go and read their analyses and predictions over the last decade or two and compare them not only to DED's but to what has actually transpired with the benefit of hindsight. In that era Wintel was their darling, and now it's Android and Samsung. Common denominator? Apple's competition. You have a lot of catch-up reading to do before you appreciate the meaning of "crazy wrong beliefs", dude...

As for Google, once upon a time they had a hardware partner that had all the chops they could have asked for in that department, but they chose to duplicate efforts by diving into their partner's markets unannounced, much to their displeasure, and even while their erstwhile CEO was sitting on their BFF's board of directors.

Be that as it may, the thing is, the web is Google's core competency and this shows glaringly when you compare their web software chops like Maps, Mail, Chrome and Search to half-baked hardware efforts like Android, Google TV, Nexus Q etc. DED just calls it as he sees it. Yes, the truth is bitter atimes, most times actually, but that's why they're known as the Hard Facts.

Daniel Eran Dilger has been writing about Apple and has been pro-Apple wayyyy before Google appeared above the horizon as a major player. Just go rummage around in RoughlyDrafted.com and go back as far as you can to see the perspective, the big picture he brings to the computing landscape, from an era that predates the current mobile "post-PC" era which is still in its infancy. I'm glad that I did, because it revealed to me where the real "crazy, wrong" beliefs emanate from, and it's certainly not DED.

Be that as it may, the thing is, the web is Google's core competency and this shows glaringly when you compare their web software chops like Maps, Mail, Chrome and Search to half-baked hardware efforts like Android, Google TV, Nexus Q etc. DED just calls it as he sees it. Yes, the truth is bitter atimes, most times actually, but that's why they're known as the Hard Facts.

This is what Daniel Eran Dilger really thinks about Google, in his own words and from less than 48 months ago:

"I think Google is a fantastic company on many levels, ranging from its commitment to supporting open, interoperable software development to its core business model that effectively churns out free (well, ad-supported) services that almost always work well and are quite reliable. I use Google’s services every day. I earn some money from Google AdSense from the properties that publish my articles. While I think the tech media sometimes gives Google a free pass in some areas where it deserves scrutiny, Google’s track record in playing fair, in supporting the environment, in treating its employees well, in not immediately selling out in human rights issues to gain access to China, and many other areas is much better than most of its peers."