Could the UAE be too hot to live in by 2070?

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Now it’s no secret the ShortList team like our weather updates. In fact, some of you even think we are obsessed with them.

Well here’s a proper long range forecast: The UAE, notably both Dubai and Abu Dhabi, could be too hot to live in after 2070. What?! Yep, that’s just 55 years away, meaning that many of you reading this would see it happen in your lifetime.

This isn’t a BBC long range forecast, but the conclusions of a new scientific study published by Nature Climate Change. According to the authors, Professors Jeremy Pal and Elfaith Elathir, both of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (where all the clever people hang out), this could happen if climate change isn’t dealt with. They argue that unless we seriously start to cut greenhouse gas emissions, then extreme heatwaves – worse than anything on the planet before – would affect Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and coastal cities in Iran.

They have worked on something called “Wet Bulb Temperature(WTB)” – basically it’s a way to combine both the outside temperature and humidity levels. Based on their models, if carbon emissions carry on at the present rate and the globe warms by 4c this century, the WBT would get to above 35c in many Gulf coastal cities. At this level, it can be almost impossible to live because the body can’t cool itself by sweating.

The good news, according to the study, is that if carbon emissions are cut, the WBT will stay below 35C in these areas. If not, actual temperatures of 45C would be regular, and some places like Kuwait City would see temperatures rise to 60C.

Now, we should explain that this is an incredibly complex piece of work, not much of it we actually understand apart from the key bits saying it might all get a bit too hot one day. And it is all based on one temperature model – no doubt other scientists will come forward soon to explain why this theory is flawed. You can read it for yourself here.

On a happier note, we reckon the temperature in Dubai will fall to a super cool 23c in the evenings by this weekend.