Guest columnist: Planning for the inevitability of Asheville’s growth

There has been much recent discussion about the growth of Asheville and Buncombe County, a great deal of it fixated upon the most obvious signs of what we typically call “growth”— traffic, construction, jobs, housing, etc.

But the idea that Asheville has ever been a quaint mountain town during most of our lifetimes is misleading. In the 1920s, Buncombe’s population grew 53 percent, to nearly 100,000 people. The number of new residents that decade exceeded even its increase in population from 2000 to 2010. With a 2016 county population of 256,000 and a metropolitan area population of 452,000, Asheville and Buncombe County long ago ceased being a small town. The Census Bureau estimates that Buncombe’s population has grown 7.5 percent since 2010, and with North Carolina’s Office of Budget and Management expecting another 64,000 new residents by 2036, it is inevitable that Buncombe will continue to grow in population.

Buncombe and other urban counties have become islands of growth often surrounded by rural counties declining in population. In fact, almost half of North Carolina’s counties (47) have lost population since 2010, including 12 of the state’s 25 mountain counties. Many of WNC’s residents drive to Asheville for their employment, shopping, entertainment, and health care. The Census Bureau estimated in 2014 that over 46,000 workers alone commuted into Buncombe each day, a number that has risen substantially this century.

This is why growth is a regional issue and must be recognized as such for planning. For another example, see Asheville’s much-maligned intersection of Sweeten Creek and Mills Gap. According to the North Carolina Department of Transportation, traffic here increased 39 percent from 2002 to 2014. Because this bottleneck is within city limits, one might easily say it’s an Asheville problem. But just 1,500 feet to the east, Asheville’s city limits end and unincorporated Buncombe County begins, and many motorists who travel through the intersection live outside city limits. Additionally, six miles to the south are manufacturing and distribution facilities in Henderson County which send large trucks through the intersection. And the two roads are maintained by NCDOT. So whose problem is it?

Interstate 26 is a lesson in how the symptoms of “growth” sometimes aren’t even local in origin. With traffic up as much as 26 percent since 2002, it is a river of commerce and motorists flowing to and from other states, including South Carolina (whose population has grown even faster than North Carolina’s). Charleston’s port set a record for tonnage in 2016, and I-26 carries much of that freight leaving for the Midwest. Expansion of the Panama Canal will increase the amount of tractor trailers along area interstate highways. And it’s not just trucks — just one hour from Asheville are the Great Smoky Mountains, America’s most visited national park which set a record for visitation in 2016.

Asheville itself will continue to be a popular destination appealing to two huge generations of traveling Americans — Millennials and Baby Boomers, both of whom value unique experiences over more “stuff.” With its location in the Southeast and its range of assets, Asheville has always been viewed as a desirable location for visitation and relocation. You may scorn tourism, but research firm Oxford Economics estimates Buncombe’s visitor economy accounted for 18 percent of property taxes and 43 percent of sales taxes last year.

In-migration of residents is keeping Buncombe from losing population even as the region ages, and the increase in senior citizens will emerge as a major growth issue. A fifth of Buncombe’s residents are now over 64 years old, a figure expected to increase to 25 percent in the next 15 years. In the remainder of Asheville’s metro area, the proportion of residents ages 65 + will be as much as 36 percent by 2032. Our residents will increasingly be older, more educated, people of color, and from out of state (in 2013, 47 percent of Buncombe’s residents were born outside North Carolina). We live in a highly mobile society, and many new arrivals will be people who could live anywhere — just as they always have been. Asheville will grow while many communities struggle to retain and attract residents to replenish their population, something that comes with its own set of challenges.

You can rage against the prospect of Asheville’s growth, but it’s impossible to deny its inevitability. That growth will have more than one facet and different forces behind it. Planning for and managing growth is vital to protect the region’s beauty, provide inclusive opportunities for area residents, and grow the economy. This can and must be done deliberately. Hope is not a strategy.

Chris Cavanaugh is president and founder of Magellan Strategy Group and a 22-year resident of Buncombe County.