September 08, 2011

Manchin leads 2012 foes by at least 16 points

Raleigh, N.C. – Joe Manchin has only gotten more popular as he settles into the Senate. With 59% of his constituents approving and only 26% disapproving, he is tied for the fifth most popular of 87 current senators on which PPP has polled. That is up from 52-32 in January and 55-31 in April. Manchin continues to accomplish something few other figures do: popularity across the board. He is at 55-28 with independents and even 46-36 with the GOP, both his best yet. He is also improving slightly with his own party, now at 68-20. Since Democrats are 55% of the electorate, 11 of the 26 points of disapproval come from his own party.

But while Democrats are not overwhelmingly supportive of Manchin, they mostly come around when he is matched against potential challengers for a full term. In three matchups, he earns 74% to 84% of Democrats—41% to 46% of the vote without even counting Republicans and independents. Only Rep. Shelley Moore Capito wins double-digit crossover support, at 17%. But Manchin still leads her 52-36 overall because he also wins a fifth of Republicans. Capito is the only contender who wins the independent vote, but only 42-39.

Though John Raese has said he will not run, Manchin would almost quadruple his margin over last fall’s opponent if the two dueled again. In November, Manchin won by only ten points, but he would now attract 62% to Raese’s 23%, because Raese would only win the GOP vote 47-31, and lose independents, 52-29. It is a similar situation against freshman Rep. David McKinley, who trails 60-24.

“Initially Senator Joe Manchin’s approval numbers weren’t as strong as those of Governor Joe Manchin,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But he’s headed in that direction now and it will make him very difficult to defeat for a full term in the Senate.”

PPP surveyed 708 likely West Virginia voters from September 1st to 4th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof David McKinley?Favorable........................................................ 23%Unfavorable .................................................... 25%Not sure .......................................................... 52%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof John Raese?Favorable........................................................ 27%Unfavorable .................................................... 43%Not sure .......................................................... 30%

Q5 If the candidates for Senate next year wereDemocrat Joe Manchin and RepublicanShelley Moore Capito, who would you vote for?Joe Manchin.......... 52%Shelley MooreCapito....................36%Undecided............. 13%

Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year wereDemocrat Joe Manchin and Republican DavidMcKinley, who would you vote for?Joe Manchin.......... 60%David McKinley ..... 24%Undecided............. 16%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year wereDemocrat Joe Manchin and Republican JohnRaese, who would you vote for?Joe Manchin.......... 62%John Raese........... 23%Undecided............. 14%

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?John McCain................................................... 49%Barack Obama................................................ 40%Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 11%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 53%Man................................................................. 47%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 55%Republican...................................................... 36%Independent/Other.......................................... 9%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 8%30 to 45........................................................... 18%46 to 65........................................................... 45%Older than 65.................................................. 29%

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