Undocumented immigration in Texas falls to its lowest level since the 1980s

The number of new immigrants entering Texas illegally each year has dropped to its lowest point in the last two decades while the number leaving the state continues to rise.

The number of undocumented immigrants entering Texas has plummeted to its lowest point in more than two decades thanks to the nation's wounded economy and beefed-up border security, according to a new demographic study by the New York-based Center for Migration Studies.

But that number dropped to just 55,000 in 2010 — a level last seen in the 1980s, according to the organization's estimates, published last week in the journal International Migration Review.

The report — which also tracked similar trends at the national level — comes as lawmakers in Washington wrestle with controversial proposals for immigration reform, with Texas politicians, including Republican U.S. Sens. John Cornyn and Ted Cruz, emerging as some of the loudest voices against them.

“The undocumented population coming in is smaller than it has been in years, and the number leaving are larger than the numbers coming in,” said study co-author Robert Warren, former demographer for U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Services. “We are in a sustained period of net zero growth that might bode well for the immigration reform debate.”

Warren's study mirrors others that have charted declines in the nation's population of illegal immigrants over the past four years. But it's among the first to offer empirical data on the more than 1.6 million undocumented residents believed to have left the country since 2007, the last time the immigration debate reared its head in Washington.

Using census statistics, the study estimates that about half of those leaving the United States chose to do so on their own.

In Texas — home to a still sizable undocumented population of 1.6 million, the nation's second largest — enforcement actions accounted for a greater share, 35 percent, of the 227,000 to leave the state since 2007.

But even here, more than 103,000, or 45 percent, left without any push from the government.

Previous reports, relying primarily on anecdotal evidence, cited declines in the nation's economy for sending thousands of immigrants packing to their home countries.

But, Warren noted in an interview last week, the number of undocumented immigrants leaving the U.S. has continued to rise, even as the economy has shown signs of recovery.

“We haven't seen any change,” said Pia M. Orrenius, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve in Dallas, who has studied the hiring of undocumented workers. “The construction industry is turning around, but hiring activity is just still at a low level.”

What these statistics may mean for the ongoing immigration debate in Washington remains to be seen.

Kristian Ramos, a Democratic strategist focused on immigration issues, said Republican lawmakers, who have threatened to block any reform proposal that doesn't include more spending on border security, ought to take into consideration the successes suggested by Warren's findings.

Since 2007, the number of undocumented residents removed by authorities has increased by nearly 40 percent, according to the report.

“These numbers show that the border has already become more secure over the past five years,” Ramos said. “I don't think you'll ever again see the level of migration into this country that we had in the past.”

“The way this has all been presented is that the immigration wave is over and we don't have to worry about it anymore,” he said. “But as the economy continues to improve, the pressure to immigrate illegally will almost certainly become more attractive.”