NFL: The 15 Craziest on-Pace Stats so Far in the 2012 Season

The NFL has become a more statistics-driven league in the past decade, as people have become fanatical about fantasy football and pay more attention to box scores today than ever before.

There have been a plethora of huge performances through the first four weeks of the NFL season, but if you are anything like me, looking at those small sample sizes and figuring out a 16-game pace is a fun activity.

With a quarter of the season in the books, it's easy to extrapolate data. Let's take a look at the 15 craziest full-season paces in the NFL thus far.

15. Brandon Weeden: 12 TD, 28 INT

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Weeden has improved over the past few weeks, but he is still on pace for one of the worst rookie seasons by a quarterback in NFL history. His 16-game pace of 28 interceptions would tiePeyton Manning’s rookie record.

The difference between Peyton Manning and Brandon Weeden’s rookie year? Manning threw 26 touchdowns while Weeden is on pace to throw 12.

It is never a good thing when a rookie quarterback is throwing interceptions at such a horrid pace, but it’s even worse when the rookie quarterback turns 29 years old in two weeks and sports the worst QBR in the NFL for an 0-4 franchise.

13. Arian Foster: 412 Rushing Attempts

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The Texans sure are getting their money’s worth out of their bell cow back. Foster’s 16-game pace of 412 rushing attempts would be the second most in NFL history. The NFL record of 416 attempts was set by Larry Johnson in 2006 before his huge decline the following season.

Houston will likely rely on Ben Tate more as the season wears on to keep Foster fresh. But many expected them to take that approach early in the season as well.

If head coach Gary Kubiak cares about the future of their feature back, he should find a way to mix it up. Running backs who carry the ball over 400 times have a bad track record of future success as their bodies seem to wear down quickly.

12. Stevan Ridley: 112 First-Down Runs

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Ridley has been a hot name amongst fantasy owners since the season started, but it’s his ability to find the first-down marker, not the end zone, that should be the focus. His 16-game pace of 112 first down runs would be the most since at least 2002, according to ESPN’s statistics history (2002 is as far back as their data goes).

He has 28 first down runs on only 74 attempts, meaning 37.8 percent of the time he gets the ball, it results in a first down for the Patriots.

11. C.J. Spiller: 164 Carries, 1,364 Yards, 8.3 Ypc

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The most amazing thing about C.J. Spiller’s breakout season so far is his ridiculous 8.3 yards-per-attempt with such a high volume of carries.

Spiller’s current pace of 164 carries with an 8.3 yards-per-attempt would shatter the previous record for running backs with 150 or more carries. Jim Brown holds that record after running for 1,863 yards on only 291 carries, a 6.40 average. That’s nearly a two-yard difference per run.

However, it’s highly unlikely that Spiller will continue to put up these type of gaudy numbers. He’s been nursing a fragile knee and the Bills seem intent on starting Fred Jackson over Spiller now that Jackson has come off injury.

10. Matt Ryan: 44 TD, 8 INT

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The Atlanta Falcons offense has been on fire to start the year, and their quarterback has been a big reason why.

Matt Ryan’s 16-game pace of 44 TD and eight interceptions would only be the third season in NFL history where a QB has 44 or more TDs and single-digit interceptions, the others coming from Tom Brady in 2007 and Aaron Rodgers last year.

If Ryan continues at this pace, he will need to be entered into the “elite” discussion with the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks.

9. Aaron Rodgers: Sacked 64 Times

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The Green Bay Packers can not allow Rodgers to be sacked 64 times this season. He will not make it out alive. The 64 sacks would be the fourth-most in NFL history.

In Week 3 against Seattle this year, Rodgers was sacked eight times in the first half. It appears as though the Packers have found a remedy for Rodgers’ protection problems by using shorter drop steps and more quick-hit routes rather than looking downfield.

It also should be noted that the Packers have played three of the best defenses in football between San Francisco, Chicago and Seattle. It is rather unlikely that Rodgers will continue to be sacked at this pace.

8. Clay Matthews: 28 Sacks

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Coming off a down-year by his standards, many weren’t sure whether or not Clay Matthews would return to be the dominant pass-rusher he showed in his first two seasons.

Those questions have been answered as Matthews has roared out of the gate with seven sacks in his first four games, a 16-game pace of 28 sacks. The 28 sacks would set a single-season NFL record. In fact, it would shatter it. The NFL record for sacks in a season is 22.5, set by Michael Strahan.

The Packers' additions of Nick Perry and Jerel Worthy has undoubtedly helped Matthews, who can no longer be double-teamed on every play. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t be able to approach the sack record as long as he stays healthy.

7. Drew Brees: 764 Pass Attempts

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The Saints' best chance to win is when the ball is in Drew Brees’ hands, but New Orleans can not be this predictable. Seven-hundred and sixty-four pass attempts would smash the previous NFL record of 691 set by Drew Bledsoe in 1994.

Unfortunately, this pace might continue as the Saints defense has been atrocious, forcing the offense into shootouts. The 0-4 Saints would rather play with a lead and be able to nurse the clock with their running game, but their defense has not shown the ability to stop anybody.

This shouldn’t come as too big of a surprise. Drew Brees has led the NFL in pass attempts since the start of the 2008 season by a large margin with 2,655 attempts, 379 more than second-place Eli Manning.

6. Brian Hartline: 100 Receptions, 1,820 Yards

Talk about a coming-out party. Hartline’s 12-catch, 253-yard day on Sunday smashed a variety of Dolphins team records. In fact, it vaulted him to the top of the NFL receiving list in yardage.

It is unlikely that he will continue his current pace of 100 catches for 1,820 yards since his current statistics are inflated due to one breakout performance; however, he will remain a force to watch all year as Ryan Tannehill’s top target.

3. Alfred Morris: 1,504 Rushing Yards

Morris would be the first rookie running back to run for 1,500 yards since Clinton Portis in 2002 (who also ran for Mike Shanahan), and he’d also be the first player drafted out of the top 60 to run for 1,500 yards in his first season.

Not bad for a guy who entered training camp as the third running back on the Redskins' depth chart behind Roy Helu and Evan Royster.

2. Robert Griffin III

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Has there ever been a more impressive debut for a quarterback than what Robert Griffin III has shown over his first four games? Some may argue that Cam Newton’s torrid start to his rookie year was more impressive, but they’d be wrong.

Griffin is not only throwing for a ton of yards, he’s doing it with great efficiency. His 69.4 percent completion percentage is the highest of any player with more than 100 career pass attempts.

How crazy are his statistics thus far? How about this for a breakdown:

4,280 yards would be the most ever by a rookie

103.8 QB rating would be the highest ever by a rookie who started more than 10 games

69.4 percent completion percentage would be highest ever by a rookie

32 combined touchdowns would be second most by a rookie in NFL history

16 rushing touchdowns would be the most by a quarterback in NFL history

Would become the second QB since the AFL-NFL merger to run for 1,000 yards in a season

1. J.J. Watt: 80 Tackles, 30 Sacks, 20 Passes Defended

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Watt has by far been the most impressive player in the NFL through the first four weeks of the season. He doesn’t just look like a young Justin Smith; he looks like he’s already better than Justin Smith ever was.

Watt’s 16-game pace of 30 sacks is astounding, especially considering that he’s playing defensive end in a 3-4 scheme. In a typical 3-4 scheme, the defensive end is not asked to do as much pass rushing but rather occupy blockers and set the edge for the linebackers.

Perhaps Watt’s most unique skill is his innate ability to bat down passes at the line of scrimmage. With his long arms and 6'5" frame, Watt swats passes down before they can even get into the secondary.

It’s unlikely Watt will continue on his current pace, as it would go down as the single greatest defensive season in NFL history, but fans should start watching Watt on a weekly basis as he has become the greatest defensive force in football.