As a longtime reader (and occasional writer) of trend prediction stories, I’ve learned two things over the last 25 years.

Most of them get almost everything wrong. (Funny, though – there’s no retroactive punishment for that, it seems.)

Those that do hit a couple of bull’s eyes usually follow the old rule that trends in specific industries tend to follow larger changes in the business, social and political climate.

So with rule number two in mind, here are five predictions for changes that we might see in the world of wine, beer and spirits over the next 12 months, backed up by the observations of those who know more than I do.

1. The craft beer movement is finally pausing to catch its breath. In 2013, growth by volume was a torrid 18 percent. By mid-year 2016, that number had slowed to 8 percent, and now it’s down to 5 percent, according to the Brewers Assocation, which keeps tabs on the craft beer industry. “The beer world is highly competitive, and there is certainly a mixed bag in terms of performance,” said Bart Watson, chief economist for the Brewers Association. “Some breweries are continuing to grow, whereas others are having to evolve their position and nurture new opportunities to ensure they keep pace.” There’s also evidence that the beer giants’ counter-punching tactics, such as faux-craft beer, are beginning to have an effect. My prediction: This year the industry will be in a no-growth holding pattern.

2. In the wine world, magnums are getting more popular. “Rosés and house reds in 1.5-liter measures are proving particularly popular for weddings and parties, where a big celebration warrants big bottles,” reports The Drinks Business. I think the magnum trend also emanates from increasing wine knowledge among consumers. Wines in magnums take longer to reach their optimum drinking age, and the added volume coupled with time in bottle increases the intensity and quality of the vino in most cases.

Burned out wine bottles sit on a rack at the fire damaged Signorello Estate winery after an out of control wildfire moved through the area on October 9, 2017 in Napa, California. Tens of thousands of acres and hundreds of homes and businesses have burned in widespread wildfires that are burning in Napa and Sonoma counties. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

3. Fires and climate issues will have an effect on wine quality. The wines of Napa and Sonoma will undoubtedly be affected by the widespread fires that occurred there right around harvest last year. The effects of smoke taint and interrupted fermentation will become apparent when barrel tasting begins. And in South America, weather changes have severely affected the volume of grape harvest over the last two years. Argentina’s production, for example, was down 25 percent in 2016, an El Nino year, compared to 2015. 2017 brought similar results. When yield goes down, quality and intensity usually go up. So do prices. We will see.

5. Cocktails will get lighter, too. After several years of manly cocktails new and old (Manhattans, barrel-aged Negronis and an endless slew of wild new rum and gin concoctions), we’ll back off the spirits and opt for mixed drinks that are less intoxicating. “Wine- and Champagne-based cocktails that are easier to pair with meals will gain popularity next year,” said Brian Van Flandern, a mixologist who has created cocktails for Thomas Keller and Geoffrey Zakarian. He said that Champagne cocktails are “ideally suited to foods and are a great way to start a meal.”

Paul D. Hodgins is a freelancer who previously worked at the Orange County Register since 1993. He spent more than two decades as the Register’s theater critic, and for eight years he wrote about dance as well. Hodgins has also written for American Theatre, Variety, The Sondheim Review and Backstage West. Hodgins has also been active as an educator and scholar. He was the music director of the dance department at The University of California, Irvine from 1985-92 and served in similar positions at Eastern Michigan University, Vancouver’s Simon Fraser University and the Banff Centre for the Arts. His book about relationships between music and choreography, 'Music, Movement and Metaphor,' was published in 1992. Since 2001, Hodgins has taught arts and entertainment journalism at California State University, Fullerton. Hodgins holds a doctorate in musical composition and theory from the University of Southern California. He lives in Huntington Beach.