MER readers will remember last month's long article titled 'TARGET
IRAN', as well as a number of other warning articles this year and
last. The situation in the region, already now so inflamed primarily
because of U.S. and Israeli policies, is approaching the conflagration
point. Depending on complex political and military considerations an
Israeli attack, which at this point in history would have to have U.S.
help and approval no matter what Washington says in public, could come
at any time.

The Americans are putting fierce pressure on the two as yet
uncontrolled 'axis of evil' countries -- Iran and North Korea -- to
'comply or else'. Indeed, it should be remembered that the very
phrase 'axis of evil' came from a super-hawkish Zionist speech writer
who then went on to co-author a frightening book with non other than
the 'Prince of Darkness' of himself, Richard Perle, titled An End To Evil.

Last month no less than the Council on Foreign Relations in New York
issued a public appeal to Washington to reign in the Israelis and
prevent an attack on Iran. This would not have been done, especially
at this time, without serious fears that the clock was now ticking. Now
this further very public warning from the Arab establishment speaking
through the Saudi owned London paper Al Hayat.

The likelihood is the Bush Administration will block the Israelis from
a strike before the November election. But should the fortunes of Bush
and the neocons look not so good after the upcoming Republican
convention the political calculations could change, both in Washington
and in Sharon's Israel. Indeed, it appears Sharon is racing ahead to
create a new 'national unity' government with Shimon Peres as deputy
Prime Minister and Foreign Minister more because of the ominous war
clouds on the horizon than because of his chicanerous and disingenuous
'Gaza withdrawal'.

Israeli Attack On Iran To Stir
Explosive Autumn: Report

Sharon could order a military strike at Iran, setting the region into flames, Arab diplomats said

CAIRO,
August 4 (IslamOnline.net) - Israel could launch a massive strike at
Iran's nuclear facilities in autumn, creating an explosive situation in
the region with a possible fierce response from Tehran, Arab diplomats
have expected according to a leading Arabic-language newspaper.

"Exploiting the
November US presidential elections and the European concerns, Israeli
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon could order a strike at Iran's nuclear
facilities,similar
to the ones Israelis executed in 1981 against Iraq's nuclear weapons
program", the diplomats were quoted by the London-based newspaper Al Hayat on Wednesday, August 4.

Iran's continued
development of its nuclear program, Israeli plans to block it and the
US-European decision not to allow the Islamic Republic to join the
nuclear club "would bring in a coming explosive autumn to the Middle
East," the sources added.

The revelation came two days after The Sunday Times
quoted Israeli officials as saying that Israeli Air Force has completed
military preparations for a "preemptive" strike at Iran's Bushehr
nuclear facility and will attack if Russia supplies Tehran with rods
for enriching uranium.

The rods,
currently stored at a Russian port, are expected to be delivered late
next year after a dispute over financial terms is resolved, the British
paper reported.

Military sources
had said the raid would be carried out by long-range F-15I jets,
overflying Turkey, with simultaneous operations by commandos on the
ground.

Two-way Response

As
Israeli officials have said they will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear
weapons, Iran warned of a disastrous retaliation that will "wipe Israel
off the face of earth, in the words of the public relations head of the
Revolutionary Guards, Commander Seyed Masood Jazayeri on July 26.

Al Hayat,
a London-based respectable newspaper, said such a retaliation "could
swing the decision-making balance in the hardliners' favor".

The daily quoted experts as saying that Iran has two fields for response to an Israeli attack: Iraq and southern Lebanon.

Tehran, experts
expected, could move Iraqi Shiite groups to launch attacks against US
occupation forces, already facing a hellish situation amid a bubbling
cauldron of chaos and anarchy in the war-scarred country. They can also
provide these groups with human and logistic support.

The Islamic
Republic could also use Southern Lebanon, controlled by the Lebanese
resistance movement Hizbullah which can not stand neutral regarding an
Israeli attack on Iran.

However, experts
said it will be hard for the resistance group to open a large-scale
military showdown with Israel for "imbalance of power and fears this
could spill over to a Syrian-Israeli confrontation".

The Hizbullah
fighters have forced Israel to end 22 years of occupation of southern
Lebanon in May, 2000. But Israeli army still seize the strategic Shebaa
Farms there.

Israel's chief of
military intelligence, Major General Aharon Ze'evi-Farkash, reportedly
told the Cabinet on Sunday, August 1, that Iran has supplied hundreds
of Iranian-made missiles to Hizbullah, which can hit all of northern
Israel and territory as far south as Tel Aviv, in addition to several
dozen missiles that can reach the southern city of Beersheva.

Britain's Sunday Timesthis
week quoted Israeli sources as saying that Israel is worried that a
preemptive strike against Iran could provoke "a ferocious response,"
including attacks against Jewish and Israeli targets abroad, as well as
Lebanese-based rocket attacks on northern Israel.

American Fears

The
Arab diplomats said the United States, facing a hard brewing time in
Iraq, seeks to escalate international pressures on Iran without use of
force, which Washington fears could flare up the Iraq situation in
consequence.

It is none of US
President George W. Bush's interests to push American forces into a
confrontation with Iran, the diplomats said.

"Bush is in the
midst of presidential elections, in which he seeks to dissipate fears
of voters seeking to hold him into account for deciding to go to war
against the Iraqi regime on basis of misleading or unreliable
intelligence," said the diplomats.

They also
expressed relief over European efforts to defuse tension over Iran's
nuclear program by encouraging Tehran to be " flexible and transparent
to avoid international isolation or a military action".

"France, Britain
and Germany still believe diplomatic efforts have not been exhausted
yet, and channels of international laws should be first adopted away
from military option," the diplomats added.

US diplomats have
been reportedly working with European allies to bring the Iranian
problem to the United Nations Security Council in hopes of imposing
economic sanctions.

A report issued
earlier this month by the Council on Foreign Relations asserted that
the US should not let Israel act unilaterally against Iran.

The report,
authored by former national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and
former Central Intelligence Agency chief Robert Gates, said: "Given the
potential threat that Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons could pose,
the full range of alternatives - including military options - for
confronting Tehran must be examined. Yet the use of military force
would be extremely problematic, given the dispersal of Iran's program
at sites throughout the country and their proximity to urban centers."

Iran insists it
only wants atomic energy. And so far, its nuclear program is in
compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Israel, India and
Pakistan are the only countries with nuclear facilities that have not
signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which was initiated in 1968
to stop the spread of nuclear weapons through inspections and sanctions.

It is widely
known that U.S. intelligence agencies routinely omit Israel from
semiannual reports to Congress identifying countries developing weapons
of mass destruction to protect the country from any economic or
military sanctions.