Thursday, October 15, 2015

2014 vs 2015 Portland Marathon Qualifier Results

So far, and I know it's early, but compared to last year's BQ qualification window, everything is trending down. Portland is no different. I don't know if weather was a factor but total finishers are down, as well as the percentage of qualifiers. 2014 had 6383 finishers. 2015 had 5678. This also translated to qualifiers: 420 vs 345, a decrease of 17.9%.

AG Group

2014 Qualifiers

2014 AG Total

Percentage

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

96

1418

6.77%

65

1258

5.17%

F35-39

28

536

5.22%

22

463

4.75%

F40-44

32

479

6.68%

22

400

5.50%

F45-49

27

343

7.87%

26

316

8.23%

F50-54

20

240

8.33%

21

225

9.33%

F55-59

10

166

6.02%

11

138

7.97%

F60-64

8

77

10.39%

4

78

5.13%

F65-69

4

30

13.33%

2

38

5.26%

F70-74

2

12

16.67%

1

16

6.25%

F75-59

0

5

0.00%

0

5

0.00%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

M18-34

57

1038

5.49%

54

918

5.88%

M35-39

19

462

4.11%

24

435

5.52%

M40-44

23

479

4.80%

21

427

4.92%

M45-49

31

393

7.89%

24

306

7.84%

M50-54

20

289

6.92%

19

255

7.45%

M55-59

14

185

7.57%

17

174

9.77%

M60-64

20

130

15.38%

8

118

6.78%

M65-59

8

57

14.04%

4

63

6.35%

M70-74

1

32

3.13%

0

32

0.00%

M75-59

0

9

0.00%

0

9

0.00%

M80+

0

3

0.00%

0

4

0.00%

Totals

420

6383

6.85%

345

5678

5.10%

And this race is a little different with the margins. We don't see a shift towards qualifying with more margin. In fact, the margin of under 5 minutes is actually higher in 2015 than 2014.

Margin

2014

Percentage

2015

Percentage

<1 minute

33

6.38%

22

7.86%

1-2 minutes

23

4.35%

15

5.48%

2-3 minutes

27

6.96%

24

6.43%

3-4 minutes

30

6.96%

24

7.14%

4-5 minutes

17

4.64%

16

4.05%

5-10 minutes

110

20.00%

69

26.19%

10-20 minutes

99

31.59%

109

23.57%

20> minutes

81

19.13%

66

19.29%

Totals

420

345

Bonus Data, margin breakdowns percentages by age group.

AG

Year

< 1 min

1 - 2 min

2 - 3 min

3 - 4 min

4 - 5 min

5 - 10 min

10 - 20 min

20 > min

F18-34

PDL2014

7.3%

4.2%

7.3%

6.3%

3.1%

33.3%

19.8%

18.8%

F18-34

PDL2015

6.2%

3.1%

7.7%

9.2%

10.8%

20.0%

21.5%

21.5%

F35-39

PDL2014

0.0%

0.0%

7.1%

10.7%

3.6%

28.6%

35.7%

14.3%

F35-39

PDL2015

0.0%

0.0%

13.6%

4.5%

0.0%

13.6%

40.9%

27.3%

F40-44

PDL2014

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

12.5%

6.3%

21.9%

18.8%

12.5%

F40-44

PDL2015

9.1%

0.0%

22.7%

4.5%

4.5%

13.6%

27.3%

18.2%

F45-49

PDL2014

14.8%

11.1%

3.7%

3.7%

11.1%

14.8%

25.9%

14.8%

F45-49

PDL2015

0.0%

3.8%

0.0%

0.0%

3.8%

34.6%

34.6%

23.1%

F50-54

PDL2014

5.0%

0.0%

10.0%

0.0%

0.0%

20.0%

35.0%

30.0%

F50-54

PDL2015

0.0%

14.3%

4.8%

9.5%

0.0%

28.6%

33.3%

9.5%

F55-59

PDL2014

10.0%

0.0%

30.0%

0.0%

0.0%

30.0%

10.0%

20.0%

F55-59

PDL2015

0.0%

0.0%

9.1%

18.2%

0.0%

9.1%

36.4%

27.3%

F60-64

PDL2014

0.0%

12.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

37.5%

25.0%

25.0%

F60-64

PDL2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

25.0%

50.0%

25.0%

F65-69

PDL2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

75.0%

0.0%

25.0%

F65-69

PDL2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

50.0%

50.0%

F70-74

PDL2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

F70-74

PDL2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

M18-34

PDL2014

5.3%

5.3%

3.5%

7.0%

5.3%

35.1%

26.3%

12.3%

M18-34

PDL2015

14.8%

9.3%

3.7%

9.3%

1.9%

25.9%

27.8%

7.4%

M35-39

PDL2014

15.8%

5.3%

5.3%

10.5%

0.0%

10.5%

36.8%

15.8%

M35-39

PDL2015

4.2%

0.0%

4.2%

12.5%

8.3%

29.2%

37.5%

4.2%

M40-44

PDL2014

4.3%

8.7%

0.0%

4.3%

4.3%

21.7%

39.1%

17.4%

M40-44

PDL2015

9.5%

4.8%

0.0%

4.8%

9.5%

19.0%

38.1%

14.3%

M45-49

PDL2014

16.1%

6.5%

6.5%

16.1%

3.2%

19.4%

12.9%

19.4%

M45-49

PDL2015

8.3%

4.2%

4.2%

8.3%

0.0%

12.5%

41.7%

20.8%

M50-54

PDL2014

0.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

30.0%

25.0%

15.0%

M50-54

PDL2015

5.3%

5.3%

10.5%

5.3%

10.5%

10.5%

15.8%

36.8%

M55-59

PDL2014

14.3%

0.0%

0.0%

7.1%

21.4%

14.3%

7.1%

35.7%

M55-59

PDL2015

0.0%

5.9%

17.6%

0.0%

0.0%

11.8%

47.1%

17.6%

M60-64

PDL2014

5.0%

5.0%

10.0%

10.0%

0.0%

20.0%

15.0%

35.0%

M60-64

PDL2015

12.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

12.5%

37.5%

37.5%

M65-59

PDL2014

12.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

12.5%

37.5%

37.5%

M65-59

PDL2015

25.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

25.0%

50.0%

M70-74

PDL2014

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

M70-74

PDL2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Next post I will do the running totals - but it's clear from the above that the cutoff trend thus far is down.