January 21, 2009

Scientific Consensus

So I’ve seen many examples before of incredible scientific consensus around the FACT that global warming is man-made. Anyone who’s looked at a report by the major scientific bodies of every or any country could figure it out. Or just check out the most recent IPCC report which is really a collection of the climate scientists’ literature from around the world. Somehow, too many people can’t figure it out and look for ways personally and politically to cut emissions and help solve the problem. Instead we get delay and denial. Now having had the unfortunate chore of arguing with far too many climate change skeptics, I’m pretty sure that nothing I say or show them absent the planet being engulfed in flames would convince them otherwise. Therefore, the best course of action is to ignore them and ram legislation down their throats.

However, every once in awhile I see something that’s worth posting just to reiterate how far into the sand climate change skeptics have dug their heads. Here’s a report below on a survey of over 3,000 scientists. 2 questions were asked. One was whether or not man is warming the climate. Two was whether man is the primary driver of this warming. 90% of scientists agreed with question one, and 82% with question two. Of course when the survey was broken down, it was found that climate scientists(yeah the ones who would know what they’re talking about), agree with these statements to the token of 97%! Amusingly only 47% of petroleum geologists think so. I wonder why? The article couldn’t figure out why only 64% of meteorologists agree. The funny thing is this made me laugh, because whenever I see global warming deniers on tv bringing on a “scientist” to refute the consensus, a lot of the time it’s a meteorologist. What is it with these guys? There’s even one named JC Watts on wordpress who gets a lot of “hawt posts” where he tries to deny man made global warming and make it look like he has a clue what he’s talking about. Too many drink his kool-aide. So anyways, the only thing I took away from this post is that meteorologists need to get paid less. Or just stick to their fields. Enjoy the article. (link is here: http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/01/19/eco.globalwarmingsurvey/index.html )

Human-induced global warming is real, according to a recent U.S. survey based on the opinions of 3,146 scientists. However there remains divisions between climatologists and scientists from other areas of earth sciences as to the extent of human responsibility.

A survey of more than 3,000 scientists found that the vast majority believe humans cause global warming.

Against a backdrop of harsh winter weather across much of North America and Europe, the concept of rising global temperatures might seem incongruous.

However the results of the investigation conducted at the end of 2008 reveal that vast majority of the Earth scientists surveyed agree that in the past 200-plus years, mean global temperatures have been rising and that human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures.

The study released today was conducted by academics from the University of Illinois, who used an online questionnaire of nine questions. The scientists approached were listed in the 2007 edition of the American Geological Institute’s Directory of Geoscience Departments.

Two questions were key: Have mean global temperatures risen compared to pre-1800s levels, and has human activity been a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures?

About 90 percent of the scientists agreed with the first question and 82 percent the second.

The strongest consensus on the causes of global warming came from climatologists who are active in climate research, with 97 percent agreeing humans play a role.

Petroleum geologists and meteorologists were among the biggest doubters, with only 47 percent and 64 percent, respectively, believing in human involvement.

“The petroleum geologist response is not too surprising, but the meteorologists’ is very interesting,” said Peter Doran associate professor of earth and environmental sciences at the University of Illinois at Chicago, and one of the survey’s authors.

“Most members of the public think meteorologists know climate, but most of them actually study very short-term phenomenon.”

However, Doran was not surprised by the near-unanimous agreement by climatologists.

“They’re the ones who study and publish on climate science. So I guess the take-home message is, the more you know about the field of climate science, the more you’re likely to believe in global warming and humankind’s contribution to it.

“The debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes,” said Doran