Poll of eight states: Romney trails other major presidential contenders among conservatives

posted at 6:51 pm on December 20, 2010 by Allahpundit

Actually, that’s overstating it slightly: He does okay in his pop’s home state of Michigan, and he manages to eke past Gingrich for third place in some metrics in Wisconsin, but in the other six — including bellwethers like Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina — he’s fourth out of four. By a country mile, in some cases.

We’ve polled eight states, not including Massachusetts, since the 2010 election ended. Romney has the lowest favorability rating of the Republican top 4 with conservatives in every single one of those states except Michigan, where he probably benefits from his dad having been the Governor. And it’s not like Romney is just slightly less well liked than the others with conservatives- it’s a large gap, particularly when you compare him with Palin or Huckabee. Romney’s average favorability is 58%. Gingrich is next worst at 64%, followed by Huckabee at 73%, and Palin does best at 77%…

And because conservatives make up the lion’s share of Republican primary voters, it should come as no surprise that his issues with them are now leading to poor numbers for him overall in these early snapshots. Of the last eight states we’ve polled Romney has led in only one- Michigan- and even there he could only salvage a tie with Huckabee. Huckabee has led in four states overall with Palin ahead in three and Tim Pawlenty ahead in his home state. Romney’s average performance has been 15% with Gingrich at 16%, Palin at 20%, and Huckabee at 21%.

Palin leads the field among conservatives in all eight states, 22/21 over Huckabee, with Gingrich third at 15 percent and Romney fourth at 14 percent. Check out his numbers in Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina, especially — bearing in mind that as Palin, Huck, and/or Newt start to fade earlier in the primaries, their conservative supporters are likely to consolidate behind whoever’s left in that group of three, making Romney’s task even more difficult.

He’ll look at those numbers and murmur to himself “McCain, McCain, McCain” as a reminder of how powerless grassroots conservatives can be to stop RINOs in a primary, but that analogy doesn’t hold. Partly because of his immigration stance and partly because of his media-friendly sanctimony towards the right, Maverick was even more widely despised by the base than Mitt is, I think, notwithstanding the latter’s health-care apostasy. But he was (more or less) acceptable anyway as a nominee given that (a) there were no conservative rock stars in the field to provide a clear contrast and (b) with Bush’s approval so low and Republicans in such disfavor, a centrist nominee could be sold as the last, best chance to hold the middle and keep the White House. In 2012, by contrast, you’ll have Palin running and (maybe) Pence and a Mike Huckabee who’s much more widely known and who’s spent two years framing himself as a hardline fiscal conservative. And you’ll have a Republican base that’s fresh off a midterm landslide and anxious to go on offense against a weakened Obama, which means they’ll be less willing to settle for a moderate deemed untrustworthy even by some centrists who might otherwise sympathize with him. The GOP hasn’t nominated a “true conservative” since Reagan (Dubya, avatar of “compassionate conservatism,” hardly qualifies despite the left’s demonization of him); many grassroots believers will be thinking, “if not now, when”? Why settle for Bob Dole when you might have a shot to nominate Goldwater?

All Mitt can do, I guess, is (a) hope that Palin’s negatives stay high and scare off GOP fencesitters on the electability question, (b) quietly lobby for GOP primaries in blue states to be winner-take-all instead of proportional, and (c) do whatever he can to make sure that states run closed primaries instead of open ones. I know that last part is counterintuitive — wouldn’t Romney benefit from centrist independents being able to vote for him? — but Democrats are so eager to face Palin in the general that I think PPP’s right about them perpetrating a little “Operation Chaos” of their own. There won’t be any Democratic contest to vote in, so if you’re a liberal who thinks Obama will walk all over Sarahcuda, why not cross over and vote for her in the GOP primary if you’re allowed?

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California has switched to an open primary. But by the time we have ours the nominee has already been selected. Open primaries are ridiculous. Why should anyone but Republicans or Democrats vote for the representative for their own party?

Well, once the FCC votes tomorrow and begins censoring,… oops, I’m sorry, I mean regulating the internet and making sure all the news is balanced, I am sure all of these candidates will from now on trail Obama in the polls.
I am also sure, once the FCC gets the news balanced and makes the internet much freer than it is, we’ll begin to see a lot more balanced stories about the Democrats and Obama and how wonderful the country is doing. Adoring crowds will again flock Dear Leader. No one will dare challenge him.

I am a Fan of Mitt Romney, I like him, but I don’t think he is electable. He needs to study up on Conservatism and he needs to come out with policy positions. He needs to prove to the public that he can do the job.

Gingrich – picture the couch and Pelosi, game over for Newt, not to mention he divorced his cancer stricken wife, and had an affair when they were dogging Clinton for lying under oath about his affair. Goodbye Newt, shut up and quit reaching across the aisle.

Huckabee? PROGRESSIVE!!!!!!!!!!!!! keep your show on Fox huck, we don’t want you in the public sector.

Sarah is the ONLY one who is consistent with her constitutional conservatism. The only people who tell us she can’t win are the ones who voted for obama, so bring it!!

Allah didn’t have this in his post, but none of the top four candidates are doing well against zero. We’re losing MI, OH, WI, MN, VA–even with Obama somewhat weakened right now. If we’re going to win, we need someone to rise up who’s quite good. I think Pence is now going to run for gov, or at least the news reports are starting to show that, which is sad.

In almost all the polls, she’s more than 10 points behind zero. She’s unelectable right now. It’d take a miracle for her to turn her image around. If we even care about winning, we’re forced with Mittins or Huck or someone to rise up who’s appealing. Otherwise, you’re just asking for a blowout loss to make some point.

I don’t see why this is so surprising, I respect Romney, but he would NEVER get my primary vote for one reason and one reason only — MassCare, RomneyCare.

There was NO data to suggest that MassCare would do what they claimed and many of the claims mirror that of ObamaCare and are proving to be just as unworkable.

I would support Romney for VP, and I would support his inclusion as a cabinet member for a number of posts, but that one issue, RomneyCare, trumps all others and he’s not the person to be in charge when the chance for full repeal comes around.

Allah didn’t have this in his post, but none of the top four candidates are doing well against zero. We’re losing MI, OH, WI, MN, VA–even with Obama somewhat weakened right now.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on December 20, 2010 at 7:11 PM

If Obama is even competitive in Virginia, then it doesn’t matter who we nominate in 2012. McDonnell won the governor’s race by 18 points less than a year after Obama was inaugurated, so how popular do you think he’ll be in that state after another 3 years? There’s no way he’s winning Virginia again.

But he was (more or less) acceptable anyway as a nominee given that (a) there were no conservative rock stars in the field to provide a clear contrast

whixh is why they wantPalin not to run at any and all costs. they don’t really care about huck or Newt because the establishment knows their support is small and local. Palin however has a following all over the country except maybe the NE. If Palin is in it she plays well everywhere and the establishment will have a massive fight on its hands. Which means the STOP PALIN bandwagon is just getting started….

No Romney and no other no one else who ran for the top of the ticket last time around! In what sane world do we say yes to past candidates that have proven they are just like the current crop of GOP leadership that has helped destroy this country. Ruling class / working class or however you want to categorize it, we don`t need this same attitude to keep geting renewed in DC. We need people who are willing to talk the truth about the terrible shape of this country and the policies that have gotten us here. Romney is not one of those unless a poll tells him to say it. His past in Mass. is about all I need to look at and say, NO!If that is not enough his absence in so many issues since 2008 should also be enough. I like the attitude of Palin, DeMint, Pence, and a few others who have shown a willingness to stand up to the party for Conservative values and not a willingness to stand against the party to vote in Progressive policies. I think we have enough of those already, just look at the START TREATY tonight. Not to mention all the other bills the GOP could have actually held up.

In almost all the polls, she’s more than 10 points behind zero. She’s unelectable right now. It’d take a miracle for her to turn her image around. If we even care about winning, we’re forced with Mittins or Huck or someone to rise up who’s appealing. Otherwise, you’re just asking for a blowout loss to make some point.

No Romney and no other no one else who ran for the top of the ticket last time around! In what sane world do we say yes to past candidates that have proven they are just like the current crop of GOP leadership that has helped destroy this country. Ruling class / working class or however you want to categorize it, we don`t need this same attitude to keep geting renewed in DC. We need people who are willing to talk the truth about the terrible shape of this country and the policies that have gotten us here. Romney is not one of those unless a poll tells him to say it. His past in Mass. is about all I need to look at and say, NO!If that is not enough his absence in so many issues since 2008 should also be enough. I like the attitude of Palin, DeMint, Pence, and a few others who have shown a willingness to stand up to the party for Conservative values and not a willingness to stand against the party to vote in Progressive policies. I think we have enough of those already, just look at the START TREATY tonight. Not to mention all the other bills the GOP could have actually held up.

ROFL….. Palin is the only vetted GOP candidate on the field. She is at her low water mark. well she hit her low water mark in July of 2009. Since then she has increased her standing. With daily attacks on her from the left and the GOp establishment.

the rest of the candidates have not even been engaged yet by the voters. How many Danials “let’s declare a truce” moments are at there with the other candidates.

the only person that can beat Obama is Palin. a no-name “blank slate” candidate will not win, will allow the MSM to paint them however they want. They will lose in mondale like fashion.

There won’t be any Democratic contest to vote in, so if you’re a liberal who thinks Obama will walk all over Sarahcuda, why not cross over and vote for her in the GOP primary if you’re allowed?

Nobody on the left listens to me when I say Palin will be able to convincing pivot to the center and beat Obama. By pivot to center, I’m only saying closer to the center than our socialist president. I’m not saying she is going to become Olympia Snowe. She will still keep 99% of the base. I doubt anyone likes the 1% she’ll lose.

With everything that has already been thrown at her, I shudder to think how nasty they are going to get!

bluemarlin on December 20, 2010 at 7:44 PM

I’m hoping the establishment goes totally batshi! insane nasty on her. She will win in a landslide if they do. Or if they take the Wallace appraoch and not engage her, she wins in a walk. From my POV the only way they stand a chance of defeating Palin is to engage her on the issues. they can’t do that because that will paint them as the moderate liberals they are. I really don’t see a path to victory for the establishment if Palin enters the race. they make it personal she wins (or Obama wins by them posioning the waters so to speak), they ignore her she wins, they engage her and they expose themselves as liberals RINOs that hate Reagan.

I suppose they could try to run a caniddate to the right of her but that will just make her appear non extreme. I really think their attacks on Palin has created Palin. If the GOp establishment would have engaged her early instead of the distain and personal attacks they might have been able to blunt her rise. But they didn’t. the Mitt club started the personal attacks the wekk before the election in 2008 and they continues to this day.

Notwithstanding the legions here who don’t want to hear it, if Palin is the nominee, IMHO independents will live with four more years coupled with a Republican controlled Congress in place as a check. That’s not good enough to repeal Obamacare and other monstrosities.

I’d feel much better if the poll said – Pence, Palin, Jindal, Christie or some combination of people.

Interesting note – I was walking past my coworker today and he was talking about Christie saying he’s going to be the next president and about three people went – oh hell yeah. Considering I’m in Minnesota – that’s pretty good.

You could be absolutely right, we can talk all we want about how stupid we think the GOP is and RINOish etc.. etc.. They have had many years to perfect the delivery and mold the narrative, the behind the scenes players should not be underestimated at all!

I don’t understand these “No retreads” comments. Nixon was a retread. Reagan was a retread. Bush the Elder, Dole and McCain were all retreads. It’s what Republicans do.

This poll confirms what we’ve been seeing and it’s bad news. Conservatives need Romney to look like a legitimate candidate that the establishment can rally around, thereby starving Huck and the second tier candidates of money. Romney as the banner carrier of the establishment is our besst chance to get Palin nominated, so we really can’t afford him to collapse like this.

churchill995 on December 20, 2010 at 7:41 PM
besser tot als rot on December 20, 2010 at 7:45 PM

I don’t know who you guys would go for, but without Pence, a true conservative, who’s not a retread, is hard. Thune might be the best of the worst in this instance. He did beat Daschle, helped Noem, ran unopposed, and looks good, which matters a lot in a general election. Thune did make a Paul Ryan argument on the tax deal. Thune/Rubio would be a good looking ticket at least.

neither is a RINO with a GOP congress. The only way Obamacare will get repealed and these socialists laws replaced is if we elect a true conservative to the WH. Palin is the only conservative in the mix at the moment.

neither is a RINO with a GOP congress. The only way Obamacare will get repealed and these socialists laws replaced is if we elect a true conservative to the WH. Palin is the only conservative in the mix at the moment.

Notwithstanding the legions here who don’t want to hear it, if Palin is the nominee, IMHO independents will live with four more years coupled with a Republican controlled Congress in place as a check. That’s not good enough to repeal Obamacare and other monstrosities.

churchill995 on December 20, 2010 at 7:53 PM

You may be correct but let me say one thing. I deal with many people in the North East, Manhattan and CT that lean Conservative for the most part and hated Palin as soon as she was named. Heck, my wife was not fan of Palin either but both have come around on their own to liking her. SO, stranger things have happened and I would not bet the farm that independents will all do as you say. It is still a long way off and hopefully many debates before the decision must be made. I am willing to wait before I make a final call.

Tell me? Do we always know two years out who is actually going to win an election that has not even officially begun yet? If so, then citing a person being at 10 points behind makes sense… otherwise its really not telling us much.

And ten points is no insurmountable margin, it can be overcome, once you know the election begins and said candidate begins to focus on that aspect of their agenda.

A. Maybe I’m wrong, but as a follower of allahpundit Palin posts since the beginning I have to chuckle at how I think it chaps him a bit to have to throw these posts up which pretty much say the nomination process looks very Palin-friendly at this point.

B. For those worried about Palin needing to improve her favorability, be seen as “serious,” etc- isn’t that often a byproduct of the primary process? When candidates stand on a stage with 2-5 opponents, the “serious” candidates usually demonstrate their poise, knowlege and preparation. The “lightweights” (actual or based on perception) get outshone and drop back in the pack.

I think the “unserious” label would fall away pretty quickly if (for example) Palin came in first in half the Super Tuesday primaries.

There won’t be any Democratic contest to vote in, so if you’re a liberal who thinks Obama will walk all over Sarahcuda, why not cross over and vote for her in the GOP primary if you’re allowed?

AP, you seriously believe Democrats are itching to match Palin against Obama in the 2012 election? I personally do not believe they are ready to roll that dice.

They will do their best to have the GOP nominate a so-called “electable centrist” (similar to McCain) and then run a scorched earth campaign that will make Palin appear reasonable in comparison. This will ensure the GOP base remains depressed, probably spurring a third-party conservative run, and ensure an Obama re-election.

The GOP base is sick and tired of the lack of leadership from our RINO overlords that always claim to be much wiser and frankly… the likely nomination of Palin should be the least of their worries.

If Palin is seen as the Cinderella candidate people will flock to her…..

unseen on December 20, 2010 at 7:57 PM

Bluemarlin’s analysis I though was on target. Behind the scene establishment types still have the puppet strings. They could sabotage a Palin win like a Ted Kennedy working with the Russians to thwart Reagen.

neither is a RINO with a GOP congress. The only way Obamacare will get repealed and these socialists laws replaced is if we elect a true conservative to the WH. Palin is the only conservative in the mix at the moment.

unseen on December 20, 2010 at 7:59 PM

To believe only Palin would repeal Obamacare is delusional. Characterizing everyone else as a RINO is delusional.

I think you are beating a dead horse here. If you go back and see most of the posts about retreads, the people are generally talking the top of the ticket. At least that is always what I have said. End of day, you will not get Palin classified as a retread, hence, beating the dead horse.

It is a sad state of affairs that the only person in the public arena with enough balls to kick over several Federal Buildings, and the inclination to do it, in order to save the Union, is a lady from Alaska.

I agree that we need someone other than one of these four, but I’d rather lose with Palin than win with another big government conservative liberal like Huck or Mitt.

besser tot als rot on December 20, 2010 at 7:45 PM

I’d rather win with whomever is the nominee, whether they were my pick of not. We simply cannot afford to have Obama for another for years. SCOTUS alone is enough scare me. Ginsberg will probably leave before 2012 guaranteeing another Communist on the bench. We’ve been lucky with our five, but anything could happen with another four years. Would Ocare be repealed with someone like Mitt or Huck? I don’t know, but I do know there is no way it will be repealed if the One is re-elected. Ocare is the on-ramp to the Socialist autobahn.