IIP signals: 8 core industries expand by 1.8% in Nov

The recovery in industrial growth in October may turn out to be an aberration as eight core industries witnessed a slow growth of 1.8 per cent in November against the eight-month high of 6.5 per cent seen in the previous month.

Growth of eight core industries, which have a weight of 37.9 per cent in the overall index of industrial production (IIP), stood at 7.8 per cent in November 2011.

Industrial output has been constantly low in the financial year till September. However, in October, it witnessed a robust growth of 8.2 per cent.

Official data released on Monday showed that production of natural gas, coal and cement contracted in November year-on-year. Also, growth rates of electricity generation and expansion in output of steel and petroleum refinery products saw a decline. Natural gas production fell 15.2 per cent in November against a contraction of 14.9 per cent in October.

It has been in the negative zone for over a year now.

Coal production declined 4.4 per cent in November against the robust growth of 10.9 per cent in October. Cement production witnessed a marginal contraction of 0.2 per cent against the growth of 6.8 per cent in October. Refinery products saw a decline in growth to 6.6 per cent from 20.3 per cent in the previous month, while electricity production expanded by a less rate of 2.3 per cent in November from 5.6 per cent in October.

Growth in fertilisers and crude oil recovered somewhat as these expanded by five per cent and 0.8 per cent against two per cent and minus 0.4 per cent in October, respectively.

The cumulative expansion of the eight industries -- crude oil, natural gas, cement, coal, electricity, steel, petroleum refinery products and fertilisers -- was down at 3.5 per cent in April-November against 4.8 per cent in the corresponding period last year.

Indian economy grew 5.4 per cent in the first half and the finance ministry's hope of economy delivering 5.7-5.9 per cent growth for the entire fiscal might be belied if industrial growth does not sustain the recovery shown in October.

It should also be noted that there is no one-to-one correlation with eight core industries and industrial growth. For instance, core sector industries grew five per cent in September, but industrial production contracted 0.4 per cent.