We’re not feeling any better about the economy

At least that’s what the Siena Research Institute found in its latest survey of consumer sentiment, the results of which were released this morning.

“Right now by three to one, New Yorkers continue to say that their financial landscape has eroded over the last year,” said Don Levy, the institute’s director, in a statement accompanying the survey’s release. “And when asked to look forward, only twenty-eight percent think that they will have a better next year.

“Worse yet is their prediction for the overall economy: fifty-four percent predict one bad year and fifty-one percent see five lean years,” Levy added. “It all translates into little willingness to spend and for now, little chance that consumer spending will trumpet a recovery.”

Overall confidence among New Yorkers fell three points to 65.6 in February, which is eight points below the national average. Upstate fared even worse, falling 1.9 points to 60.2 in February, while downstate, although its 4.0-point fall was greater, still posted an index reading of 68.9. The numbers are based on a survey conducted nationally by the University of Michigan, with the index equal to 100 in the base year of 1966, when we apparently were feeling much better about things economic.

The survey also looks at consumers’ buying plans, and here there was some good news.

“With spring around the corner and the eight thousand dollar incentive for new buyers, home buying is the highest we’ve seen in a year and a half,” Levy said. “But cars and trucks have dropped two points, the lowest since the early fall.

“With gas prices on the rise, once again more New Yorkers are cringing as they pull up to the pumps and watch those fill-up numbers climb,” he added. “And few see any relief at the grocery store. Nearly two-thirds of all consumers and over three-quarters of low income residents, feel a hardship there.”

3 Responses

Well of course people feel negativity – the media constantly harps on bad news whenever it gets a chance. Since when did we become a nation of helpless alarmists ??

Recessions in the US happen every 6-7 years on average, and isn’t a permanent condition. But these polls don’t take into account that most poll-takers just don’t grasp the big picture. Instead, they harken back to whatever dire headline they most recently heard.

Is the media even on our side here ?? Would it matter, seeing how most people don’t know US economic history ?

I know many actively seeking work. Very few jobs available. Lay-offs continue and it seems that local, county governments and school districts may join the lay-off employers out of necessity due to loss of tax base or tax income!

Economic history? I’ve lived it since early 1950s. It is much more than a brief recession this time around. While NOT a depression there seems to be a change in many people’s outlook and spending habits.

No, people are NOT avoiding all spending but many are revising and re-prioritizing their discretionary income. More people are reducing spending and reducing debt.

The cycles in other countries come and go, but some are far worse off, percentage-of-unemployed-wise than is the USA. Spain is a prime example.

We have spent hundreds of billions of dollars to “bail out” business YET the everyday citizen has received little benefit from this massive expenditure. This is NOT a political statement, it is an economic one!

There is a fundamental flaw in the economic picture – too much money has been used for less than optimal results. I see large financial firms, some of which received “TARP” funds doling out bonuses that are NOT justified – except in their own corporate minds!

Such payouts should be made for stellar work that results in growth to a business’ revenue and it should be at measured and quantifiable goals. US business has often become too top heavy and money, THAT ALWAYS originates with consumers, is grossly under-utilized to broaden a business’ revenue sources. Such actions starve new development. Such wastrel use of available funds also throttles initiative and expansion.

Yes, the US is an economic engine, BUT others are arising and will soon displace the US business as leaders of new growth and ventures SIMPLY because US business is too preoccupied with short-term growth and personal aggrandizement at the expense of long-term viability.

Just review how few US companies have significantly grown their revenue streams the past three years. Consumers CAN ONLY power a recovery if: 1, they are confident, 2, they are currently employed at more than subsistence wages, 3, they have expectations of continued employment, 4, goods and services are sold at affordable prices, 5, durable goods, big-ticket items, automobiles and homes need to be reasonable in cost coupled with available financing at non-usurious rates, and 6, business must realize the economy is a large circle with many twists, turns and detours as well as speed bumps!

I contend that until such conditions are met that the economy will still just trudge along. Furthermore, any growth needs to be real growth, not one-time fixes such as the stimulus funds that created very little new jobs – AT least not as yet – IF ever!

With all due respect, there is a lot more to our Nation’s economic history than the era which Baby Boomers have lived through.

The point which I was trying to address was simply that, in this internet-dominated era, its much easier for media to create a universally omminous perception. Purposeful or not, all of these readily-available messages are taken as “fact” by a public, which is not nearly as knowledgable as a “free, educated” populace should be. Mass-media thrives on the absolute misery of humanity, no other way to describe it. And we eat it up.

There is no doubt that the economic downturn is real, it is merciless and it doesn’t discriminate. Don’t get me wrong, I am just looking through a psycho-social lense here. Have very little respect for what seems to pass as “journalism” today. Just irresponsible blather these days.

I like this one, you summed it up precisely:

“….US business is too preoccupied with short-term growth and personal aggrandizement at the expense of long-term viability.”

This describes the self-indulgent ‘Boomer-generation perfectly, and indicates their willful-ignorance of what their parents went through. Alas, they failed to recognize lessons, which means the ‘Boomers are the last generation who will have a better standard of living than the previous generation.