Thursday, September 06, 2007

25 Random Stats That Probably Don't Mean Much

1. Ryan Zimmerman has batted third in every single game this year and has started at third in all but one.

2. The team's righties have a .296 on-base percentage against right-handed pitching. The Nats are 'led' by Austin Kearns' .336 and lagged by Nook Logan's .278. (Maybe he should go back to switch-hitting!?)

3. The Nationals have hit 21 more homers on the road than at RFK. Of the regulars, Church (barely), Belliard (barely), Zimmerman and Young are the only ones with slugging average above .400 at RFK. On the road, only Lopez, Schneider, Belliard and Logan are below that mark.

4. Nationals lead-off batters have a .300 on-base percentage, the lowest in the league, .042 points below league average.

5. Nationals pitchers have hit for a .105/ .136/ .136 (AVE/ OBP/ SLG) line this year. Their average is worst in the league, their slugging and on-base next-to-worst. They're fourth worst in successful sacrifices.

6. Despite Tony Batista's heroics, Nationals PHers are dead last in batting average, thanks to the combined 3 for 41 efforts to Bobby Fick and Beverly D'Angelo Jimenez. They're fourth in plate appearances, so they've had plenty of opportunity to suck.

7. After a first-pitch strike, the Nationals bat .216/ .259/ .322 as a team.

8. After a first-pitch ball, the Nationals bat .279/ .388/ .429 as a team.

9. On the first pitch, they hit .327/ .330/ .504 as a team.

10. They put the first pitch in play 11% of the time. Dmitri Young leads the team with doing it, batting .455 in 89 plate appearances with five homers. Robert Fick (3 H in 20 PA) and Wily Mo (2H in 14 PA) should give it up.

11. The Nationals have stolen 119 fewer bases than the NY Mets and have been caught 18 times fewer.

12. Ryan Zimmerman has 7 fewer stolen bases than last year. He also has 7 fewer caught stealings than last year. Good for him.

13. Felipe Lopez has 20 fewer stolen bases than last year. He also has 3 fewer caught stealings than last year. Bad for him.

14. Only St. Louis has grounded into more double plays than the Nationals have. They're led by Ryan Zimmerman's 25. Brian Schneider has 14. Despite being a bench player, Robert Fick has 7.

15. Despite having a seemingly never-ending 1st inning scoreless streak to start the season, they now have scored in the first in 33 games. That's the same number of games as they've scored in the 3rd, 5th, and 8th innings. Despite the improvement, they've still been outscored in the first, 82-57.

16. In wins, Nationals pitchers have a 2.90 ERA. If that sounds impressive, it's not. League average is 2.67, and the Nationals are fourth-worst in the league.

17. In losses, Nationals pitchers have a 5.85 ERA. If that sounds terrible, it's not. League average is 6.20 and the Nationals have the 5th best ERA in the league.

18. Nationals Starting pitchers have a 5.01 ERA. If that sounds impressive, you're an idiot. It's third worst, and the league average SP has a 4.59 ERA.

19. Nationals Starting pitchers have the fewest innings pitched in the league, nearly 100 fewer than the league leaders. Conversely, Nationals relievers have pitched the most innings, 3.54 in an average game. The average NL team gets an extra out per game, the equivalent of having an extra arm in the pen over the course of a season.

20. Nationals pitchers have struck out the fewest batters in the league. You know how much importance I place on pitchers' ability to strike batters out. But that can be overcome as long as they don't walk anyone or give up homers.

21. Nationals pitchers have the fourth most walks in the league. Crap.

22. Despite playing in a cavern, Nationals pitchers have the 5th most homers allowed. Double crap. All four teams ahead of them (Phi, Cin, AZ, Hou) play in good parks to hit homers. They're "led" by Matt Chico's 14 allowed RFK homers. Mike Bacsik and Jason Simontacchi have combined to allow 15 at RFK in just 9 more innings combined than Chico. On the other end, Saul Rivera has pitched 41 homerless RFK innings this year.

23. Every Nats pitcher who has appeared in a road game has allowed a homer and only Houston has allowed more total road homers. (call that the pujols effect)

24. The Nationals are one of three teams (ATL and FLA) who don't have a complete game. They are tied for 6th in shutouts though.

25. The Nationals have only let a pitcher pitch to a batter after 100 pitches 43 times, the lowest total in the league and roughly 80 times fewer than the average team. It's with good reason. Batters hit .343/ .465/ .571 off the Nats in that situation, the worst OPS allowed in the league. Matt Chico and Tim Redding lead the team in opportunities. Redding was successful (.100 .250 .100), Chico not (.455 .538 .727).

If Fick is 3 for 20 (.150) on first pitches he puts in play and hits .223 in his other at bats, is that even a statistically significant difference? Not that he doesn't suck either way.

To me the most telling bit of information I've picked up about his presence on this team was last year when Bowden's assistant threw out the first pitch on her 50th birthday and she came out to the mound wearing a Fick jersey.

Sheesh...of course Fick has had a disasterous year. He won't be back. His career is probably over. but I don't see where he cost us a ton of games (if any) and it was critical to have a functional glove early in the season (if not now) to replace da meat hook in late innings. Plus, I'll argue again, that with a rookie manager and bleak prospects it's important for the team's psyche to have guys in the clubhouse who know (and embrace) their role with their chins up.

This team could easily have become a complete trainwreck (ie, orioles) and I'd like to think (in my pollyannish mind) that guys like Fick helped keep things loose. I'd love to hear manny's take on it.

jj: Since the average major leaguer has a better batting average when putting the first ball in play than overall, Fick's failure is magnified. Although it's not that 3 to 4 extra hits would make his stats that much better.

Those homer and ERA stats are very, very scary. Even with the benefit of RFK, we've given up the 5th most bombs and our starters allow 5 runs per 9?? They better hire a team chiropractor next year for the whiplash our pitchers will have watching their stuff get drilled.

A tough first season in The Plan, but at least we have good leadership for a better future.

In looking at Sports Illustrated March 2007 Baseball Issue, Stan Kasten was quoted as saying (about his strategy of bringing in many low-priced hurlers to compete for jobs): "Every year one or two surprises emerge. I know it's going to happen."

In contrast, O's VP Jim Duquette was quated as saying: "If you don't think this team is vastly different and vastly improved, you're crazy."