Argentina Trade May 2017

Argentina: Export growth continues to soften in May

June 23, 2017

In May, exports expanded a meager 0.8% from the same month last year, which followed April’s revised 1.8% increase (previously reported: +1.7 year-on-year). Exports grew on the back of higher prices, despite a reduction in overall export volumes. As for the different product categories, exports industrial manufactures and fuels and energy grew, more than offsetting a drop in exports of agricultural manufactures and primary products. As for the main export markets, exports to the MERCOSUR countries expanded healthily, while exports to the European Union, NAFTA, China, Chile, Maghreb and Egypt fell. On a monthly basis, exports grew 1.7% in seasonally adjusted terms in May, strongly contrasting the revised 4.4% contraction in April (previously reported: -6.8% year-on-year).

Imports jumped 24.0% annually in May, above April’s 13.8% expansion. The trade balance therefore worsened from a USD 485 million surplus in May 2016 to a USD 642 million deficit in May 2017. In the 12 months up to May, the trade balance posted an accumulated shortfall of USD 0.3 billion, which contrasted the USD 0.9 billion surplus recorded in the 12 months till April.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect exports to expand 6.9% in 2017 and they see imports increasing 10.0%, thus pushing the trade balance to a USD 0.5 billion surplus. For 2018, the panel expects exports to increase 6.5% and imports to expand 8.1%, with a trade deficit of USD 0.5 billion.

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Argentina Trade Chart

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.

According to the National Statistics Institute (INDEC), consumer prices in the greater Buenos Aires capital area rose 3.4% in December compared to the previous month, which was significantly above November’s 1.2% rise.