Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Brian McCann: is he worth $17 million for each of the next five years?

The deed seems to be done. Supposedly the New York Yankees have signed free agent catcher Brian McCann for $17 million for each of the next five years; that's $85 million total. McCann inspired me to develop a new criteria I hadn't realized existed and which McCann immediately failed:

I don't know how this was determined or what to do with it but I thought I'd share in case it's relevant like best first basemen at fooling the umpire by leaving the base early on a close force out of the batter. What a disgrace. Eliminate the primordial catcher and determine strikes by hitting a fixed target like a bull's eye. Geez.

My general view is that you don't want one of your better hitters to be your catcher because you will over pay for a player who will get hurt or will be rested to prevent him from being hurt even more than he is rested. I think that the optimal thing is to have two catchers of about equal value and have them split the catching duties.

Here are the catchers to simply play enough to qualify for leadership in averages, which is only 502 plate appearances (PA) in order by OPS+:

2011

2012

2013

Avila

Posey

Mauer

Santana

Mauer

Posey

Molina

Molina

Santana

McCann

Montero

Molina

Montero

Santana

Lucroy

Wieters

Pierzynski

Perez

Suzuki

Ellis

Martin

Buck

Wieters

Pierzynski

Olivo

Wieters

No more than nine in any season and only three qualified each of the three seasons:
Yadier Molina StL
Carlos Santana Cle
Matt Wieters Bal

McCann only in 2011. In 2012 McCann was injured and lousy. In 2013 McCann was less injured and less lousy. That's what the New York Yankees will be paying $17 million for each of the next five years.

Hall of Fame third baseman George Brett qualified for BA in 1980 with 515 PA in only 117 games. That helped him get credited with a .390 BA. It's a pretty low threshold and look how few catchers can do it over a three year period: only three. The Yankees will be lucky if McCann catches 120 games in any of the next five $17 million seasons. At DH or first base McCann would be ridiculously overpaid.

The Yankees were also probably doing what they do best in these situations: bidding against themselves. How many other teams, if any, would not have noticed that McCann was trending down and that he will 30 in 2014?

OPS+

Age

Catcher

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

29

McCann

143

99

135

119

124

122

87

115

30

Molina

70

53

85

96

100

84

124

137

131

26

Avila

78

142

99

87

26

Posey

133

116

171

138

30

Mauer

107

144

118

134

171

140

102

140

144

27

Santana

126

121

137

27

Lucroy

90

132

114

23

Perez

105

30

Martin

101

116

108

88

86

95

91

100

27

Wieters

90

110

107

88

29

Montero

113

102

121

123

83

Money in millions

Age

Catcher

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

29

McCann

6.7

11.5

12.0

17.0

17.0

17.0

17.0

17.0

30

Molina

5.3

7.0

14.0

15.0

15.0

14.0

14.0

26

Avila

0.4

0.5

3.0

26

Posey

0.6

0.6

8.0

12.5

16.5

20.0

21.4

21.4

21.4

21.4

21.4

30

Mauer

23.0

23.0

23.0

23.0

23.0

23.0

23.0

23.0

27

Santana

0.4

0.5

0.5

3.5

6.0

8.3

27

Lucroy

0.4

0.5

0.8

2.0

3.0

4.0

23

Perez

0.8

1.0

1.5

1.8

2.0

30

Martin

4.0

7.5

6.5

8.5

27

Wieters

0.4

0.5

5.5

29

Montero

3.2

5.9

10

10

12.2

14

14

Maybe Joe Mauer didn't give Minnesota as much of a home town discount as people thought. Both Mauer and Buster Posey will be making plenty for many years. McCann will continue to be paid more than Yadier Molina. Who thinks that makes sense? Mauer will move to first base in 2014 because of general wear and tear from catching plus a concussion, which ended his 2013 season on August 19.

To top it off it's my understanding that the Yankees gave McCann a complete no trade clause so they won't even be able to dump him after a couple of years in a sort of Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder you take my unwanted overpaid player and I'll take yours and somehow that will make sense.

At least former Yankee manager and current Baltimore manager Buck Showalter can relax. It doesn't look like the Yankees will be going after his catcher Matt Wieters any time soon as Showalter had feared if Alex Rodriguez loses his suspension appeal and his salary does not count against the Yankee team payroll.