...Potential flooding later this week in the North Bay and SantaCruz Mountains due to Atmospheric River Event...A late season storm system with unseasonably high moisturecontent will bring periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, tothe San Francisco Bay Area and Monterey Bay Area later this week.Light rain is forecast to develop in the North Bay by Thursdayafternoon. Rainfall is then expected to spread south across therest of the San Francisco Bay Area and into the Monterey Bay Arealate Thursday and Thursday night. Rainfall intensity throughThursday night is expected to be light to moderate.Rainfall intensity is forecast to increase on Friday and rainrates could be heavy at times by Friday afternoon. Periods ofheavy rain are then possible through Friday night and into earlySaturday morning. Rainfall is expected to taper off by middaySaturday. Rainfall totals from late Thursday through middaySaturday are forecast to range from 2 to 4 inches across the NorthBay, except 4 to 6 inches in the North Bay Mountains. Rainfalltotals forecast for the Santa Cruz Mountains are also in the 4 to6 inch range. Local amounts of more than 6 inches are possible inthe wettest locations of the North Bay Mountains and Santa CruzMountains.Based on current rainfall projections, mainstem rivers such as theRussian River and Napa River are forecast to see significantrises late this week and into the weekend, but remain well withintheir banks. However, smaller rivers and streams could flood,especially if heavy rain rates persist across a watershed longerthan anticipated. Flooding would be most likely in low lying andflood prone areas. In addition, heavy rain rates across the NorthBay burn scars could trigger flash flooding or mudslide/debrisflows across and downstream from the burn scars. Outside of theburn scars, widespread landslides are not expected from thisevent. This is because there has been a sufficiently long periodof time since the last rain event for drying to occur. However,localized landslides or rockslides may still be possible outsideof burn scar areas, especially in areas of steep terrain.Persons living near rivers and streams or other flood prone areasshould be alert for the possibility of flooding during thisAtmospheric River event late in the week. Flood watches may beissued once forecast confidence concerning rainfall amountsincreases, especially if subsequent forecast models indicatehigher rainfall totals or more intense rain rates. Please staytuned to bulletins from NWS, NWS social media (NWSBayArea), orfrom other sources of local weather information.