'It could get bloody' — Experts forecast 2016 Missouri election

With voting machines still cooling down from Tuesday's election, experts aren't afraid to start talking about 2016.

That's partly because political pundits have already been looking ahead to the 2016 Missouri election. The ballot, which will also feature a presidential election, should also have at least two new names for governor and battles for seats in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.

"It could set a new record for turnout," Greene County Clerk Richard Struckhoff said.

It's expected to most closely resemble the 2008 election, which featured Barack Obama vs. John McCain for president, Jay Nixon vs. Kenny Hulshof for governor, and Roy Blunt vs. Richard Monroe for U.S. representative. To date, that election was Greene County's highest-ever turnout, with 136,665 people voting.

Struckhoff thinks 2016 could be even bigger, with high interest in open races for both president and governor.

The potential presidential names — Clinton, Rubio, Biden, Paul, Christie and others — have been tossed around for years and will continue to be debated. The region's House seat, won again by Billy Long last week, appears to be his if he wants it again in 2016. The same goes for Sen. Roy Blunt, a consistent presence for Missouri.

Where things really get interesting, according to political expert George Connor, is in the Missouri governor's race.

"It could get bloody," he said.

Gov. Jay Nixon will be term-limited, opening the door to candidates on both sides.

One person has already thrown her name in the ring — Republican Catherine Hanaway, former speaker of the House — and two more are widely believed to be on deck.

Current Attorney General Chris Koster, a Democrat, and current Auditor Tom Schweich, a Republican, were expected to be the favorites to face off before Hanaway announced she was running.

That sets up what Connor, a Missouri State University professor who's been covering Missouri politics for about 25 years, sees as the potentially "bloody" primary fight between Schweich and Hanaway.

And Greene County could play an important role in deciding which of those two appears on the November ballot.

Both Schweich and Hanaway are "St. Louis Republicans," Connor said, and neither naturally appeals to the more rural areas of the state. If they split the St. Louis vote, Connor said it could come down to "how they play the smoke-filled rooms."

Also to play an important role as usual will be funding, which Connor described as "who gets the Rex money," referring to St. Louis billionaire Rex Sinquefield. He is well known for throwing millions into Missouri elections.

Connor said Schweich's current role as auditor gives him an advantage, since he's regularly in the public eye.

Another political expert, Brian Calfano, also a Missouri State University professor, says the list of hopefuls should also include current Speaker of the House Tim Jones, a Republican.

And we can't rule out an outsider jumping in, Connor said, particularly someone from the business community who could self-fund a campaign.

He said Missouri's Republican divide isn't really a case of tea party vs. non-tea party, but rather the establishment vs. outsiders.

Even though Missouri continues to lean further right politically, whoever comes out of a potentially crowded Republican primary could face an uphill battle against Koster.

Connor pointed to past gubernatorial races in which a hotly contested primary left a candidate "beat up" and unable to overtake an opponent from another party who had an easier primary.

He said he doesn't expect recent bad press about Koster, namely a New York Times story about his relationship with lobbyists, will hurt him badly two years from now — though his opponent would obviously bring it up.

However, the landscape could change completely if the favorite daughter of the town of Houston, Missouri decides she would like to make her mark in Jefferson City rather than Washington.

Experts have suggested Claire McCaskill could make another run at Missouri's top seat now that she's in the minority in the U.S. Senate.

McCaskill's office offered a statement when questioned about the possibility of her running for governor.

"I love my job as a U.S. senator," McCaskill said. "It's challenging and rewarding, and I have an awful lot of areas in which I can engage and have an impact for Missourians."

Calfano doesn't think a McCaskill gubernatorial campaign is likely.

"I think McCaskill would be unable to reposition herself as a more moderate political figure in time for a successful 2016 run," he said. "For better or worse, she is closely associated with the Affordable Care Act, and she's carried a lot of water for President Obama."