So, the Braves signed Georgia boy Nick Markakis — he went to high school in Woodstock — for four years, $44 million. On its face, I don’t like this deal. On reflection, I don’t like this deal. On a bit more reflection, I’m basically ambivalent.

If you were an Orioles fan, Nick Markakis would have been a massive disappointment to you. The seventh overall pick in the 2003 draft, he debuted in 2006 as something pretty close to the guy he is now: 147 games played, 542 PA, .291/.351/.448 with 16 homers, 2.5 rWAR. He was 22 years old. Then, at 23, he picked up to 23 homers and 4.2 WAR, and at 24, he had the best season of his life, hitting .306 with good defense and accruing 7.4 WAR. But like Carlos Baerga, it turned out that he peaked at 24.

Since then, he’s basically been a two-win player every year (except for a terrible, injury-plagued 2013), with negative defensive marks (good arm, bad range), a good batting average and OBP, and somewhere between 10 and 15 homers. His defense isn’t great but it won’t kill you, his offense isn’t great but in this context it’s above-average, and he stays on the field which gives him positional value.

The free agent math to get to his contract basically goes like this: if you assume that he will be a 2.0 win player in 2015 and 2016, that in the subsequent two years he will lose an average of 0.5 WAR a year due to aging, injuries, and so on, and that it costs $7 million to buy a win on the open market, then:
Year 1: 2.0 * 7 = $14 million
Year 2: 2.0 * 7 = $14 million
Year 3: 1.5 * 7 = $10.5 million
Year 4: 1.0 * 7 = $7 million
Total: $45.5 million

Those are pretty aggressive assumptions, but that’s basically how you get to the number they paid.

There are basically two pressing questions. First, what is his true power? And second, given that he plateaued in his early 20s, is he due for a massive crash in his early 30s (like, say, B.J. Upton)?

The power question is partly tied to his wrist. He had hamate surgery in 2012, and his power has plummeted in the years since: .159 ISO before surgery, .098 ISO after. If you believe that he’ll get some of his power back, then he could be a value buy, but hamates are no joke, and there’s no guarantee that he’ll ever slug .470 again, as he did in 2012. Still, if he can get back to .440, that would be a big help.

The second question is harder to answer, but it’s worth looking at his similarity scores on on baseball-reference. This contract will pay him until he’s 34, and seven of his top ten most similar hitters were out of the league by 35. That isn’t determinate, but it’s a serious concern.

So: why am I anything other than deeply negative about this deal? First, I’ll point to David Lee’s article in the Augusta Chronicle and Martin Gandy’s blog post; both are smart, serious followers of the Braves and they offer much more full-throated defenses than I’m about to. But it basically boils down to this: the Braves badly need warm bodies, and this free agent market is absolutely insane, as evidenced by the $30 million deal given to Billy Butler, an iffy 28-year-old hitter who can’t play defense, or the $57 million deal given to Nelson Cruz, a 34-year old whose low OBP and indifferent defense offset his substantial power. Or, for that matter, the $3.8 million that the Athletics gave Ike Davis, who is the literal definition of a replacement-level player.

Given the scarcity of even average hitters and the Braves’ desperate need for one, Markakis fits the bill. The Braves’ upper minors are a wasteland, which means that league-average players are worth more to the Braves than they are to many other teams, and the Braves are paying this league-average player less per win than those other teams are paying the players that they got. Markakis doesn’t have a lot of upside beyond the player he is now, but if he’s able to remain this player for two more years (per the assumptions above), he’ll be worth this contract and well worth the gamble. That may not be the likeliest-case scenario, but it also may have been the Braves’ best option to fill a major hole in their roster without creating an even bigger hole elsewhere.

Published by

204 comments on “Nick Markakis”

The Markakis deal *might* work out, but obviously the odds are pretty heavily against it. I would have been much happier to see the Braves take some real risks instead of simply making a safe signing like Markakis – for instance, JUp + Gattis to the Mariners for Walker + Ackley + Saunders would’ve made great sense. As it stands, the Braves are likely going to be both mediocre and boring in 2015, and will not have won any great future benefits in terms of young talent and roster flexibility in exchange for that mediocrity.

Since everyone seems comfortable with me as the contrarian, I will simply offer this (not particularly likely, but not utterly impossible) scenario for your esteemed consideration. I will attempt to keep the language PG-13 for the overly sensitive among us.

Freeman and Markakis are the only double digit millions on that payroll.

But here’s the thing. You’ve recouped 14.5m per from the JUpton contract. You’ve recouped 15m from moving BJ Upton. And you’re finally out from under the 13.5 mil you’re still paying Dan Uggla this year. So, call it 42-44m per back into your payroll kitty.

And Jason Heyward, beloved hometown hero, will almost certainly be available for the bidding.

@2/the news from a couple days ago about the almost deal with Gattis+BJ to Houston

The fact that the deal didn’t get done makes me very skeptical about Hart. That’s the BJ Upton contract potentially wiped out. The fish was on the hook. You gotta close that deal. I know they don’t all work out–but at some point, if you’re GM, you gotta make it work out.

Call it strike one. (Or strike two, depending on where Hart was on the Johnson extension.)

And yes, Jason Heyward wanted to sign a long term deal but at his cost. If we trade both Uptons and Ugglas $$ comes off the books, we could easily resign him. I have a feeling this will be an offseason of misery and complaining about every deal.

Nori Aoki must be a collective hallucination, a manifestation of many of our desires for an equally-skilled yet much more affordable version of Markakis. Does Aoki not actually exist or something? Is he not sufficiently grindery?

Alex, do the contract value estimates in the post take into account the continually rising value of wins YOY. Are you assuming an average win value of $7m over the next four years, or that $7m is the value for 2015. If the latter, then the contract looks a lot better in the later years when the costs will have risen.

Jay at @10, the number I quoted is a bit higher than most current estimates: you’ll often see numbers like $6 or $6.5 million. But you have to assume a $7 million cost per win in order to get to the number the Braves paid him. The way that $-per-win estimates work is by building in the future costs — so you’re paying X dollars today for Y expected wins over the following N number of seasons.

“According to Baseball-Reference, Simmons generated 5.4 WAR in 2013 and 3.9 in 2014 with his glove alone; Nelson Cruz, who led baseball with 40 homers last year, generated 4.2 WAR with his bat. If we believe those numbers, we accept that the Braves have a player who, before even picking up a bat, generates as much or more value than the sport’s top power hitter.”

5: The fact that the Braves would technically have enough money to pay him doesn’t mean they can “easily” sign him. If Heyward’s (reasonable) contract demand is going to consume 25% of the Braves’ yearly payroll, it just isn’t gonna work.

2: One flaw: a single year of Justin Upton is worth less than Walker, not more. I don’t think that’s insurmountable–send Shae Simmons along, for example, and it’s pretty fair.

16: Well, the Braves aren’t going to send a major-league starter; the point is to strengthen the rotation. Maybe the Mariners don’t need Simmons, but there should be a way to make an Upton-plus-for-Walker swap work, if the Mariners really do want Upton.

@18, We’re upset because our ownership just took much more than what it’s going to cost to sign Heyward from Cobb County taxpayers. To stick us with BJ again and trade Heyward under those circumstances isn’t forgivable. I don’t understand why you’re not upset.

The difficult bit about my SWAG @2 is moving BJ. If they can move BJ, then the money is quite simply there to bring back Heyward if they want to. And the contract would be determined by what sort of 2015 Heyward puts up in STL, and how the market values him going forward.

Aoki isn’t a great player at all. He’s not that much worse than Markakis and probably cheaper. But, honestly, in this market I have no idea. Aoki might command anywhere from $15 to $40 million. I just can’t tell what teams are going to do.

We’re upset because our ownership just took much more than what it’s going to cost to sign Heyward from Cobb County taxpayers. To stick us with BJ again and trade Heyward under those circumstances isn’t forgivable. I don’t understand why you’re not upset.

It never occurred to me that the anger would be this irrational.

The Braves didn’t take whatever they “took” from Cobb County taxpayers to pay payroll in 2015-16. They took whatever they took in order to build a new stadium. They’re not going to dump the money they secured to build the new stadium in 2015 payroll. They’re going to use it (and a lot more, from some magical as of yet defined place) to build the stadium and the surrounding infrastructure. At that point, if that is successful, they may very well take the new money streams generated by parking and year long rents in the stadium/mallpark area and add that back into 2017 and beyond’s payroll. (Or they may just pocket it for Liberty.)

Regardless, the new stadium financing has absolutely nothing to do with whether they could extend Jason Heyward in 2015 or 2016. It’s just not the same money.

Actually most of the anger has come loudly and repetitively from just a few posters. I think most here are leveled headed about it, it’s just that the few who are most opposed to the offseason so far are posting prolifically and are drowning out the rational debate at times.

It’s become a bit tiresome honestly. I enjoy the rational debate and try and just page down the rest.

Matt (Northern VA) Hey Keith, the only explanations I can think of for Atlanta’s signing of Markakis is that: 1. they intend to trade Bethancourt and start Gattis at Catcher; 2. they have inside information that the DH is coming to the NL faster than people believe; or 3. they are going to trade Justin Upton (potentially big mistake) or Evan Gattis. So two questions: Which seems most likely to you? If the answer is #3, what is an appropriate return for Upton? Thanks!

Klaw (1:03 PM) Number 3. I don’t think they get much more for Upton than they got for Heyward, maybe even a tick less.

Danny (Brooklyn, NY) Some at Fangraphs believe that the Mariners would trade Taijuan Walker for Justin Upton. Thoughts?

Klaw (1:35 PM) I believe they would. His value has dropped dramatically in the last year.

Cindy (NC) What has caused Taijuan Walker’s value to decrease so much in the last year?

Klaw (1:43 PM) Delivery changes, shoulder issues, mediocre performance. And he left the AFL with some questions about how/why.

Let’s see, in this thread Sam mentioned Heyward. Then csg mentioned Heyward. Then Anon21 mentioned Heyward. (None of these people are on the record as being very upset about the Jason Heyward trade.) Then csg mentioned Heyward again, and essentially asked those of us who are still smarting from the move what for? Then Adam R responded. Then Johnny and Dusty and Sam and Smitty got real smug about how we go on and on about Heyward.

But yes, congratulations all around for identifying the problem.

Edit: Forgot to mention Dan @15 but since it was actually hilarious I think it’s okay if it stands apart.

Edward, really dude? Over the past several threads you have personally been responsible for 6999 of the posts about Heyward. All someone had to do was just say something slightly less than fawning and you’d deluge everyone with every metric in the book.

I’m just perplexed that Sam was perplexed at how deep the cult of Jason has been ingrained in some of y’all.

My confusion was over the cause, not the depth. I simply never considered the idea that people thought the money secured to build a new stadium would be spent on players prior to the stadium breaking ground.

“Andrelton Simmons could suddenly turn into a high-average, high-OBP player and become one of the best all-around shortstops we’ve seen in years. Freddie Freeman could turn from an excellent young player into a superstar — Joey Votto in his prime. Chris Johnson could hit again. B.J. Upton could … I don’t know … yell “LOOK OUT FOR THAT OPEN MANHOLE COVER” when walking with some of the good players.”

@42, I think it does. I think the Gattis to LF talk is to make teams think we’re not trying to trade him. He’s a butcher out there. Hard to be sold on Bethancourt as an everyday catcher just yet. He may turn out to be Henry Blanco.

I think when John Hart said there “endless possibilities” he was being honest. I think somewhere in the Braves offices there is a “war room” with a giant, two-wall spanning flow chart of “what we do if X.” One node is “offer Lester what we can, see if he takes the hometown deal.” “If YES, trade Mike Minor to unload BJ Upton.” “If NO, pursue packaging Gattis+BJUpton.” Etc. The “dominoes” metaphor is a bit stretched most of the time, but I do there there are seven, eight, nine different paths the Braves have sketched out, and some of them require seeing what other teams do and what those moves do to their competition’s needs and willingness to trade young cost controlled talent.

Currently, we most likely only have an idea of 3 of our 8 everyday starters come next season at a certainty. Those being:

Freeman 1B
Simmons SS
Markakis RF

C, 2B, 3B, LF, and CF are completely up in the air at this point on who will be there from day to day. I have no issue with the debating if certain signings are the right moves, or what type of trades we should be looking for as the winter progresses as long as everybody respects each other. The thing is, we have no idea what the actual makeup of this team’s everyday players is going to look like come spring training.

I, for one, would love to see us maximize our lineup potential. We are a not a big budget team and shouldn’t play like one. I would have no issue at all if by the end of winter we had 4 to 5 everyday starters and were platooning 3 to 4 other positions depending on Left or Right handed pitching. One obvious position is catcher for platooning. It is the reason it makes sense to either move Gattis to LF or trade him. Due to no DH in the NL, it makes no sense to have one of your best offensive weapons in a spot that is only going to give you 110 to 120 games a year tops.

I do not mention pitching here because I have a feeling the Braves will be just fine in that department.

Basically, the Braves finished in the bottom 10 in the MLB as a team in AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. I have no issue with us trading away home run hitters and 1 year of a hometown favorite if we can replace that with more OBP and less strikeouts whether it be through an everyday player or two platoon players and keep a strong pitching staff or make it stronger in the process.

Pretty much the blunt of all this rant is we have no idea if we will be a winning team or losing team next year. We will have to wait and see. We should reserve judgement on those arguments.

We were a losing team last year with Heyward, J. Upton, and Gattis. Why does anybody think keeping them around would change that fact? To be honest, they can even trade Freeman, who is my favorite player, if it makes the team better. I just know I watched a team play with no heart the last month of the season last year. I do not want to watch that again. Why not see if a change in faces and philosophy can do us some good?

The fact that we kept Fredi is mind-boggling to me. Much more so than the Heyward trade. The only rational reason has to be that we’re not going to put together much of team next year, so might as well let Fredi take the fall.

It’s hard to argue with you at this point as I agree that we would appear to have gotten no better or worse so far, but there is still a lot of time left between now and the start of spring training. There are plenty of moves that could be made or not made.

For one, I would have never thought we would have been a losing team last year, and it happened. So, who is to say that the opposite cannot be just as true? Stranger things have happened. I will reserve some optimism for the upcoming season until I see just how our team plays early on next season with whoever we do end up fielding as players.

Everyone has to admit, it is pretty exciting having no idea what our starting team could look like next year at this point.

I forgot to factor in the Fredi situation in the platoon thought process. Maybe, he will decide to stop playing the hot hand and actually stick to traditional platoon knowledge and play right handed and left handed match ups properly.

FWIW I haven’t minded the Heyward back and forth. I mean, I willfully read a season and a half’s worth of debate regarding no one’s favorite player Yunel Escobar being traded for AAG. And a multi-day, multi-thread accountant fight.

@54, Seriously. This is also nothing compared to the debate over Fredi’s basic competency at the start of his tenure.

We don’t have to talk about it, but I think the idea that the Braves don’t know what kind of windfall they’re in for, re: the stadium, right now, is beyond naive. You would think investing more in the team now could pay greater dividends down the road. But we know that’s not how ownership views the team. I don’t see how any of this is even debatable.

Yeah, I don’t know what else we’re supposed to be discussing. It’s the hot stove league time of year.

More generally, the move to Cobb puts an end date to my fandom in its current form — I won’t be going to nearly as many games, and my attachment will lessen. It was my hope that the team would try as hard as they reasonably could to contend in the interim, that another banner of some sort could be hoisted downtown, but the decisions being made lead me to doubt that that will be the case. It’s frustrating to witness.

I’m on record, but I don’t really understand the big grievance about moving the stadium from Summerhill/Mechanicsville, twelve miles north to Cobb Galleria/Cumberland. I understand folks who live within walking distance there in Grant Park finding it an inconvenience, and I get Cobby-Cobbs being butt hurt over the tax base boondoggle of it all, but as an Atlantan who doesn’t live in Grant Park or Cobb County, it makes little to no difference to me where the stadium is located. It’s 7.5 miles away from me either way.

Since y’all are on the topic of the new stadium, does anybody know the specific layout of the field? I do not care about the shopping aspect. I am talking about the actual field makeup.

The reason I ask is because this could come into play with what type of team Hart and the rest of the front office build over the next few years. Obviously, they are thinking pitching which makes me think this is not going to be a hitters park.

This leads me to believe we start focusing on one big stat which is OBP.

I could see us fielding a team where our HR leader is sitting around 20 per year such as Freeman and everyone else is in that 10-15 HR a season range with hopefully very good OBP. I would love to watch games with manufactured runs. The wait for a HR to win the game method has become quite old over the past few years.

@4 That’s a silly thing to hold against Hart. From what I hear Houston wanted no part of BUpton, that was just what Hart told them it would have taken for them to get Gattis. I don’t see how that’s a strike on Hart that they didn’t go for it.

Kind of interesting that the Markakis signing reminds me a lot of BJ Surhoff. Markakis’ career stats over 9 years are .290 .358 .435 .793. Surhoff also came from Baltimore and his career stats over 19 years were .282 .332 .413 .745. That’s pretty much what I’m expecting from Markakis next year. As I said, not great, but I can live with it.

It looks to me like Marta will go just inside I-285 and then there will be shuttle service over to the ballpark. I know this is similar to the way things are at the Ted. On the map it looks like Marta might deliver to the edge of the “circulator area” which I think might be some kind of people mover. At this point I am willing to wait and see whether they do it right or screw it up before I pass judgement. Hopefully they will have learned from the “train to shuttle bus” nightmare at the Ted that it is the wrong way to do it. The article might only mention the shuttle but the map says “CCT/MARTA”.

@4, 62 – Not knowing at all what the details of that deal were, or what other deals may be being worked on involving the players that would have been involved in that deal, or knowing who proposed that deal and who backed out of it, saying “I know they don’t all work out–but at some point, if you’re GM, you gotta make it work out. Call it strike one” is definitively… what did you call it? Garbage analysis.

It’s not like MARTA doesn’t want to increase its service routes, especially in a potentially high-volume direction like Northwest. It’s that Cobb County has refused to let MARTA in and continues to do so. Specific reasons for that would cross the no politics line, so I’ll just say it’s because Cobb Co. is the actual devil, and the Braves team that I’ve personally invested a crap load of time and money in over the last half decade made a massive, opaque, ethically suspect, tax-payer-screwing deal with it. That and the fact that suburban ball park building AND suburban shopping mall building went out of style in the 90s (incidentally the same time that the braves brain-trust’s baseball philosophy did) are the reasons why I’m personally opposed to the new Atlanta (sic) Braves Field at Gargantuan Shopping Mall Park. I hope it’s a huge cash cow for our owners who will reinvest literally none of it in the local community.

I called it trash analysis, but I wasn’t trying to coin a phrase, so “garbage analysis” works just as well.

The facts here seem irrecoverable for now, although, as I indicated in @66, the impression I got was that a discussion about moving BJ Upton with Evan Gattis to Houston didn’t die until after it had gained some traction. It’s possible I read the piece entirely wrong, in which case you can definitely take what I said and throw it in the garbage. Anyway does anyone know?

At the same time, anyone in charge of the Braves 25-man roster right now has got to get rid of BJ Upton–not at any cost, but at any reasonable cost. Every time something almost works out but then doesn’t get done there are bound to be extenuating circumstances, even very reasonable extenuating circumstances–the Braves would eat too much of the contract, the players we’d get back wouldn’t be good enough, we’d have to package a piece we’re not interested in packaging, etc.

But when the buck stops with you, you only get so many excuses, reasonable or no, for failing to accomplish clear mission objectives.

So, as I said in @4, that report makes me skeptical of Hart.

What part of that is garbage? Or do you just bear me a grudge?–in which case, get over it. I really like what you write here.

I have no grudge against you. I once fought on your side during the Great Heyward Wars of the 2014 Season. I just think it’s silly to start counting strikes on Hart because of things we can’t possibly know about deals that didn’t (or haven’t yet) happened.

Yeah, it could make all the sense in the world for MARTA to go to the new ballpark (and it does BTW), but it won’t matter unless Cobb County lets MARTA into the county, which right now has about as much chance of happening as me being named President of the United States this very second. Now, give it a year or two of the new ballpark being open and the resulting traffic disaster and it’s possible Cobb’s position could start to soften a bit, but right now, it’s a non-starter for them. (And as was previously stated, the reasons are myriad and political.)

Since the stadium is literally right on the county borders it would seem like a station just south of the 75/285 exchange would still be pretty darn useful. I don’t think Cobb could do much to stop that either.

It’d be a 10+ year project anyways. Maybe my kids will get to enjoy it.

I’m surprised the Michael Kohn deal isn’t being talked about more here. A pitcher with major league success but with control issues is a huge get for McDowell and Co. We’re really building our bullpen on the cheap. That Walden deal is looking better by the day.

I haven’t weighed on this, and after all the conversation, I’ll make it very brief: I do think the Markakis deal is directly associated with the Heyward deal (obviously because Heyward’s departure created the need for Markakis). The Braves became convinced that Heyward was not going to become a superstar, because they may have gladly paid him $20MM per plus if he was the superstar some think he is. By signing Markakis, the Braves are signifying that they feel like Markakis is a similar player to Heyward (less range), but will cost $10MM per less. I think that’s a very fair statement for the organization to make, and I’m comfortable with the deal.

We’re evaluating a painting before it’s complete. What we do with BUpton/JUpton/Gattis is going to make or break the offseason. As of right now, I’m pretty happy with Heyward/Walden for Markakis/Miller/Jenkins and a salary wash.

Here’s a stupid question. Should we go after Jedd Gyorko? He sucked tremendously last year and is tied to the Padres in a long-term deal that they may be regretting. He had plantar fasciitis last year, which may partly explain why he was so terrible. And we badly need a second baseman, and the Padres are even poorer than we are.

I suspect Cobb will be perfectly happy with MARTA bus shuttles running from Fulton to WFF on game days. Their arguments have never been about keeping people with enough money to go to baseball games for fun out of their precious territory.

Everyone wants to play moneyball – if you have a good young player then the obvious thing to do is give him a long deal that maximizes team control. That’s would everyone wants, right? Up until the point where you realize that the young player actually sucks and now you have him for 7 more years.

I’m worried about Sam, guys – I think he might need neck surgery too after performing the gymnastics required to continue to defend the Markakis deal in light of his impending operation.

Seriously though, all I can do is laugh at the fact that we paid 4/$44 for a guy who wouldn’t be worth that even without requiring major neck surgery as his first act on the team. Either the medical staff is incompetent or upper management is. Possibly both. Maybe we could trade for Ruben Amaro as GM? Is Steve Philips still available?

@60, if it’s going to be a pitchers’ park, power should be more important than OBP compared to a neutral park, not less. If a park reduces the chance of all hits by 5% or whatever, it reduces the number of times you string together two or three hits to score a run by a lot more than it reduces the number of homers, so homers should wind up being responsible for more of your total runs.

I guess this assumes that all kinds of hits are affected similarly (which might result from factors affecting how easily batters see the ball) as opposed to homers more than other hits (which might result from unusually shallow or deep fences). It’d be interesting to check this by seeing what % of runs result from homers in extreme hitters’ parks and extreme pitchers’ parks.

Oh yes…the bestowing of Jason Heyward’s non-retired jersey number to a player who actually plays for the Atlanta Braves is surely a massive outrage! I mean, I’m so mad about it I can hardly see straight! What kind of morally bankrupt…nay, outright evil person would take a number that is available on their baseball team and give it to a new player who actually plays for that baseball team??? I know Heyward didn’t do nearly enough to warrant retirment of his number, but surely a yearlong grace period where we could all mourn his loss, have candlelight vigils and wear black armbands with the number 22 on them would’ve been appropriate! Jesus, our front office is nothing but a bunch of cold, heartless bastards! I haven’t even raised the flag at my house back to full mast yet!

@129 – It’s about 129th on the list of affronts – only merits mentioning because it’s so completely tone deaf. Plenty of fans are thrilled to see the second coming of Jeff Francouer gone from the team and replaced by a good ol’ hometown boy, plenty others are majorly sad about it and will now get one more reminder of who could’ve been in RF everytime Markakis turns to chase down a double that dropped behind him.

So honest question: Would you rather have an actual Major Leaguer wear the number or have it soiled by a crappy AAAA minor leaguer? Also, were they honestly supposed to not give Markakis No. 22 when he asked for it and it was available because a couple fans can’t bear the sight of it on anybody but Heyward?

There is a beautiful stretch of road out here where you can really open up a machine. Rural, straight, visibility, nothing but pine plantations. Even graded just right. I’ve been known to touch about that driving home in my toyota under the right conditions. On the beltway? Um, no.

Did many of you guys watch the Oregon game last night? As they noted on Game Day, playing your conference championship game on Friday night at 9 pm when your conference is arguably not getting the national respect it deserves and a quarterback is the front runner for the Heisman but needs exposure, is not the best of moves.

As NoVa native and still a frequent visitor, two things have been true since my youth – an empty Beltway in the middle of the night and a fast car/motorcycle is a strong temptation, and it’s just dumb as hell to speed in Virginia.

My mind can’t get past this one insane train of thought that goes against the whole reason for calling up Bethancourt: Gattis is a solid (or passable) catcher and Bethancourt has the speed to be a decent left fielder.

Apart from that piece of Harteasoning, Bethancourt’s only redeeming trait seems to be that he’s fabulous defensively behind the dish. Take that away, and I’m not even sure if you have a lifelong minor leaguer. Bethancourt at C + Gattis in LF will probably be better than Gattis at C + Bethancourt in LF and if you’re picking the latter, you may as well just go Gattis at C + anyone else in LF.

You’ve laid out why it won’t happen, and you’re absolutely right, but it’s funny to me. I think the defensive gap would be much wider in left, just from how he runs and how his tools came together behind the dish last year.

With the emphasis on pitch-framing and range, I can’t imagine you’d be getting the most out of Gattis in left. He’d be a middle of the pack hitter in left, and likely the worst fielding left-fielder in the game.

P.S. “funny to me” is not my back-handed way of saying they should do it.

You’ve made the argument for trading him. Some team with thoughts of competing might find a lot of value 3 or 4 years of a masher at the DH spot, and might find themselves with a couple of good, well-rounded, but less masherly young players who are either blocked by a star, or replaceable by a lesser player already under that teams control.

If you can turn Evan, a masher without a suitable position, into two quality everyday players, with similar team control, who, while not as good with a stick as Gattis, can both hit AND field, and do that playing in a position we presently run out an automatic out (CF, 2B, 3B) you have to consider it seriously.

I think he has a suitable position, he just needs to DH a couple times a week. I know they love that he’s cost-controlled, but he’d be worth a lot to an AL-team. If they believe Bethancourt is the future, I’m not sure he’s worth much to the Braves.

I avoid the four-letter sports network like the plague, and I never watch “coach press conferences,” but I happened to be getting my haircut today and they had that on the TV. Man, did that guy come across as a loon. Not quite the “did someone forget to give this guy lithium today?” loon that ended up at the bar next to me at lunch, but major goof.

Conflicted Department:
Why is it that I’m sorta rooting for FSU in this game? What’s wrong with me?

Didn’t catch the UF press conference, but I don’t mind seeing a major rival changing coaches all the time. It won’t have quite the negative recruiting effect it had on Tennessee, which doesn’t have as many top players inside its state, but it’ll hurt a bit, especially if that guy doesn’t win immediately.

#143/147
One of my favorite things in the world to do is drive from Philly to NYC via NJ Turnpike in the middle of the night. Very little traffic & you can just blaze your way to the Lincoln Tunnel. Of course, I’m usually playing “Nebraska” or “Darkness on the Edge of Town” for the full effect.

#159
Right, it’s probably more of an anti-OSU thing. And though it’s fairly rare that Tech ever plays a game this big, it’s still tough for a UGA grad to actually root for them, even if they’re playing the Criminoles.

I’ve never rooted for Ohio State in my life. But I hope they jump the Criminoles. And I sincerly hope Jameis Winston blows out a knee and never plays another down. He’s the poster boy for horrible entitled pampered jocks.

Local and University police departments cover for athlete transgressions in every college town in America, including Atlanta, Tallahassee, Athens, and Columbus.

Rooting against Winston for his transgressions is one thing, but then giving money and publicly supporting institutions that foster and continue to maintain systemic control over local justice is entirely ironic. For example, here are some links to the 2002 charges against 4 UGA football players indicted in a gang-rape case against a college aged girl:

“Tiffany Williams alleges that in 2002, she was gang-raped by several members of the University of Georgia football and basketball teams. The athletes, Tony Cole, Brandon Williams and Steven Thomas, were indicted but not convicted of criminal charges. While they were suspended from their respective teams (after or near the end of their college careers), the university did not levy other sanctions against them because by the time judicial hearings were held, the athletes were no longer enrolled. Williams brought charges under Title IX against the University of Georgia, the University of Georgia Athletic Association, and a number of individuals including the University President, the UGAA President, and the coach of the men’s basketball team. A district court granted the individual and institutional defendants’ motion to dismiss. But, last year, a three-judge panel of the Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals partially reversed the district court, ordering it to reconsider plaintiff’s Title IX claims against UGA and the UGAA.”

Say what you want about Winston and the complete joke that is the Tallahassee PD, but please realize that this is the rule, not the exception.

I’m not an Ohio State apologist and honestly I would rather they didn’t get in, but based on winning their conference championship against a top 15 team, I would put them in. They have one more win than the other 2 schools and conference championships are supposed to be an important factor. Definitely huge controversy and a reason there will be a push for 8 teams, but the final spot is a coin toss.

Well that to me is sort of the story here – it’s clear we haven’t reached Peak Football yet. Even with Tuesday and Wednesday being the only night it’s not on, there is still room for growth. I don’t anticipate the 4 team playoff to last long.

Drew can hit a little, the problem is that he’s even more injury-prone than his brother J.D. As DOB pointed out on Twitter, he has played 86 games or fewer in three of his last four seasons. He just never stays on the field.

The more I think about it, the more I think TCU and Baylor deserved what they got. The non conference schedule for both teams ranked among the worst in the nation. If you’re not going to play a conference championship game, it would be wise to play a few decent out of conference games. Buffalo, Northwestern State, and Samford just won’t cut it. Interesting that both teams and Alabama played West Virginia.

The B12 was prohibited by the NCAA from having a championship game. It’s the only major conference where every team plays each other. You don’t have teams like Mizzou who don’t play anyone and then show up at a championship game.

Stephen Drew really makes sense if the Braves are planning on keeping Peraza in the Minors until June-ish. He traditionally hit RHP well and would start at 2b until Peraza is ready, in a platoon with Gosselin. From June on, he could be platoon partner with CJ. MLBTR predicts a 1 year/7MM contract, and the Braves should pass on that price. A 1/4MM with incentives sounds fair.

ububba – you are to be blamed for your Tech Hate. Pretty sure that’s part of the Plan. Btw, please put a beatdown on Petrino and the boys.

Only three sent to NY (Amari, Gordon and Mariotta). Actually prefer this to sending everybody who had a great year.

UF made a good hire. Dammit.

Surprised that Spurrier is coming back. Anybody know what the have coming back? In all the Old Ball Coach victory lap, everyone forgot to really look at what SC lost.

Pretty obvious that the Committee’s main mistake was to publish their rankings for the three (or whatever) weeks. Doubt we’d have this bitching if they’d just released the final selection. As it is, they kind of established parameters of this ongoing debate.

Too bad for five and six (and I hate that OSU and the Evil One got in) but there’d be a lot less angst if Sunday was the day they announced. Sure there’d be some after the fact knashing of teeth, but that’s a lot better than setting themselves up to show some inconsistentcies that can be endlessly debated.

If you let Teheran eat innings the first few months and stick with the plan to provide an extra day of rest whenever possible, you're less likely to end up in a position where you may need to limit the younger arms down the stretch