crisis

Trump’s behavior raises questions of competency

Donald Trump potentially has millions of lives in his hands as the threat of a devastating war with North Korea swiftly escalates.

January 20, 2017

Yet the President of the United States is raising new questions about his temperament, his judgment and his understanding of the resonance of his global voice and the gravity of his role with a wild sequence of insults, inflammatory tweets and bizarre comments.

On Wednesday Trump caused outrage and sparked fears of violent reprisals against Americans and US interests overseas by retweeting graphic anti-Muslim videos by an extreme far right British hate group. Earlier this week he used a racial slur in front of Native American war heroes. He’s attacked global press freedom, after cozying up to autocrats on his recent Asia tour.

August 18 2017

And now there are reports that the President has revived conspiracy theories about former President Barack Obama’s birthplace and is suggesting an “Access Hollywood” video on which he was heard boasting sexually assaulting women, and for which he apologized last year, had been doctored.

In normal times, it would be a concern that the President is conducting himself in a manner so at odds with the decorum and propriety associated for over two centuries with the office he holds.

September 20, 2017

But the sudden escalation of the North Korean crisis, following the Stalinist state’s launch of its most potent ever missile on Tuesday, takes the world across a dangerous threshold.

If diplomacy is unable to defuse the North Korea crisis, or slow its march to the moment when Kim Jong Un can credibly claim to be able to target all of the United States with a nuclear payload, Trump will face one of the most intricate dilemmas of any modern President. Will he live with the threat posed by a mercurial, wildly unpredictable adversary? Or, will he launch what could turn out to be a hugely bloody and destructive war to remove Kim’s nuclear threat?

November 3, 2017

There will be a premium on Trump’s judgment, his capacity to absorb the most serious detail and to make choices that could put many, many lives at risk, and draw the United States into escalating situations in Northeast Asia. Trump would be required to switch from the swaggering, untethered political persona he has been reluctant to drop as President into the role of sober statesman, unifying the nation and US allies — a switch he has rarely achieved so far in his 10 months in power.

On Wednesday, in St. Charles, Missouri, Trump stuck to his preferred name calling, again blasting Kim as “Little Rocket Man” and branding him a “sick puppy” after his White House earlier promised severe new sanctions against Pyongyang. But he didn’t elaborate on his vows to “handle” the situation. (Continued: CNN)

Here’s how Trump could survive — even if we learn the worst

May 11, 2017

Washington is abuzz with what we might call “tipping-point talk” — the idea that this time, really and truly, Republicans are on the verge of breaking with President Trump. The latest revelation stoking that chatter is the New York Times’s report that a memo by former FBI director James B. Comey indicated that Trump privately asked him to quash the probe into former national security adviser Michael Flynn’s Russia ties.

Yes, some Republicans are speaking out more forcefully. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) now says that the scandals enveloping Trump are reaching “Watergate size and scale.” Other top Republicans are now calling for an independent commission or special prosecutor. And many analysts are discussing ways in which the latest Trump revelations — combined with Trump’s alleged demand for Comey’s loyalty — amount to obstruction of justice, a potentially impeachable offense.

April 25, 2017

But even if we do establish clear evidence that Trump obstructed justice, it is easy to discern, based on what we are already seeing, a way that Republicans ensure that Trump survives this.

The wiggle room in proving obstruction of justice could end up meaning that, even if we come a lot closer to establishing that Trump did interfere in the manner reports have indicated, we could still genuinely fall short of proving his clear intent. More cynically, even if that standard is reasonably cleared, Republicans could take refuge in this murkiness and then buttress this position by arguing that we should not re-litigate the election simply due to Democratic sour grapes.

February 3, 2017

Remember, Trump has been assaulting our democracy on multiple fronts since the beginning, and Republicans have mostly looked the other way. There is an unfortunate tendency to cover these various stories as separate from one another, but Trump has abused his power in multiple ways that, ultimately, all trace back to the same autocratic impulse. In addition to the Russia affair, there’s also the unprecedented, middle-finger-brandishing lack of transparency around his tax returns, even as he backs tax reform that would deliver his family a massive windfall ; the laughably substandard ethics arrangement for his businesses and the perpetuation of likely emoluments clause violations; and the continued use of diplomatic business to promote Mar-a-Lago and steer cash into his pockets.

All of these — taken along with the alleged interference in ongoing probes — add up to a level of autocratic, above-the-law contempt for our democracy that is larger than the sum of its parts. And Republicans have effectively shrugged off most of it for as long as possible. So it’s plausible that even if obstruction of justice were reasonably well established, they’d find a way to evade taking it to its logical conclusion. (Source: Washington Post)

Lynton Crosby, Australian strategist, hired by Tories to boost political fortunes

Stephen Harper is going Down Under to come up on top.

With polls suggesting the Conservatives are struggling in third place, the party has reached out to Lynton Crosby, a top Australian political campaign strategist who has been credited with securing victories for British Prime Minister David Cameron and other right-leaning leaders.

Crosby, known as the “Wizard of Oz” for his string of political successes, is working with the Tories as their campaign tries to regain momentum after a series of negative headlines.

But the exact role he will play is unclear. Conservative campaign spokesman Kory Teneycke would only say that “Crosby is somebody that pretty much everyone in our organization has known for a long time, we’ve had a lot of cross-pollination over the years with our friends in Australia and also the U.K.”

Teneycke wouldn’t get into details, but denied Crosby was running the campaign, adding, however, “he’s been around for a very long time and continues to be around.”

2011-2015

Crosby is widely acknowledged for playing a key role in the surprising majority victory of Cameron’s Conservative Party in Britain this year. He was also the national campaign director for the successful campaigns of former Australia prime minister John Howard in 1998 and 2001 and was behind the winning London mayoral campaigns of Boris Johnson in 2008 and 2012.

He has been described as the Australian Karl Rove, after the key adviser to former U.S president George W. Bush. According to a Guardian profile of him, Crosby employs the strategy of wedge politics — finding an issue that can be exploited to split off an opponent’s traditional supporters. (Source: CBC News)

Harper must walk political tightrope in PQ’s Quebec

Blamed by some in his own party for adopting policies that helped reawaken the Quebec independence movement, Prime Minister Stephen Harper now finds himself walking a political tightrope as he prepares to face the demands of a fresh Parti Quebecois government.

“He’s in charge and he’s got to figure it out. So we’re in for great fun and games,” said veteran Quebec Conservative organizer Peter White. “But it isn’t the end of Canada.”

For months, White has argued that Harper and his small team of Quebec MPs were angering a large majority in the province by adopting unpopular policies and decisions in areas such as language, law and order, and the environment.

But despite the fact there are only five Quebec Tory MPs in Ottawa, White has also said Harper could tackle the problem by raising his public profile in Quebec and explaining his policies more.

“Quebecers came very close to saying ‘Yes’ last time (in the 1995 referendum on sovereignty) and things were not nearly as bad then as they are today in terms of the emotion of the thing,” White said Tuesday. (Source: Postmedia)

Greek Debt Crisis at a Critical Point

In the European currency war, Germany has the biggest arsenal and the strongest interest in forestalling the collapse of the euro. So why is it playing Hamlet: “To lead or not to lead?”

September 2011

To ponder and waver is not the old German way. Today, Germany is about as aggressive as a pussy cat, but pundits and politicos from the U.S. to Greece have blamed its dithering for rising market volatility and the mounting costs of the debt crisis. The 50% haircut on Greek bonds decreed at last week’s EU summit should have been imposed a year ago. Athens was insolvent even then. So it is always too little, too late. Whenever the Berlin-backed European Union rescue brigades and the European Central Bank close one breach, the markets attack on another flank. They will do so again, and the euro will remain in peril. Greece simply cannot grow enough to service its debt.

As the euro burns, Mrs. Merkel fiddles mixed messages. In Berlin the chancellor preaches generosity, dispatching German taxpayers’ funds to Athens. But in Brussels she stalls, demanding ever-more austerity and market reforms before relenting at the last minute. The euro rises, then drops again.

Mrs. Merkel’s latest volley—that any Greek referendum on the terms of a rescue package by the EU and the International Monetary Fund would decide whether Greece keeps the euro at all—sent markets roiling this week.

Ontario’s Greek Crisis

Yet the unraveling of Euroland would hit Germany the hardest. The neue deutschemark would shoot up, while the nouveau franc and the nuova lira would nosedive. And so would Germany’s exports, now an astounding 47% of its gross domestic product, two-thirds of which stay within the EU.