Nearly 50% say they won’t vote for Modi govt again

In what could be a warning signal for the Narendra Modi government in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, an opinion poll conducted in 19 states claimed that nearly half of the voters do not see merit in giving the BJP-led dispensation another shot in power.

The survey covering 19 states also claimed Congress chief Rahul Gandhi has managed to close the gap between his principal rival Modi on the popularity chart, riding on improved ratings among Dalits, Adivasis, middle-aged people and elderly.

Poll-bound Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh may also give jitters to the BJP where Congress is perceived to have a clear edge while in Bihar, the BJP-JD(U) combine is well ahead of RJD-Congress combine.

The 'Mood of the Nation' (MOTN) survey, conducted by CSDS-Lokniti for ABP News between April 28 and May 17, claimed that 47% of the 15,859 respondents were of the opinion that the Modi government "does not merit another opportunity" to govern the country. Only 39% thought it deserves a second innings in power.

These numbers for the NDA are "about as bad" as those that had been recorded for the UPA in July 2013, nine months before the 2014 polls.

While anti-Modi government sentiment was "especially strong" among the minorities with three-fourths of Muslims, three-fifths of Christians and well over half the Sikhs who do not wish to see a BJP return, the survey also “rather unexpectedly” found a sizeable section of Hindu voters carrying anti-government sentiment.

"Dalits and Adivasis, who have also been victims of violence and atrocities, were found to be most vociferous in their opposition to the government at 55% and 43% respectively. Dominant OBC communities are also quite opposed (42%) to the present government," it claimed.

In the voting choice of people, BJP has lost two percentage points from 34% recorded in the January round of survey and the latest round was "indicative of a declining trend, one that the BJP has been unable to stem". The May 2017 survey had shown 39% of the voters supporting BJP.

Dissatisfaction with the overall performance of the Modi government also continues to rise -- it has gone up from 27% in May 2017 to 40% in January 2018 to 47% now.

The analysis also showed South India continues to be the region where BJP fares the worst, as it is projected to securing only about 18% votes in the five southern states put together. This is basically due to TDP, which is "doing far better" in Andhra Pradesh pulling out of the NDA.

The news from the north also is not cheerful for the BJP, currently, only about 39% of the voters in this region are supporting the BJP/NDA compared to 45% in January.

The survey also indicated that Dalits and Adivasis have not only shifted their vote preference but their prime ministerial preference as well. Gandhi, who was the Prime Minister choice of 18% Dalits and 27% Adivasis in January, is now the choice of 25% Dalits and 30% Adivasis while Modi sees his favourability drop from 35% to 25% among Dalits and from 42% to 37% among Adivasis.

Nationally, the gap between Modi and Rahul, which was 17% points in January 2018 is now down to just 10 points. As of today, Narendra Modi is the spontaneous preference of 34% of voters and Gandhi of 24%. "Modi for the first time has dropped below his favourability level of 2014 when he was the PM choice of 36% voters. Preference for Rahul Gandhi, on the other hand, has climbed by 8 points since 2014," it said.

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