I'd rather they not partner with any publishers and see them just do a limited box order for people who preorder. Maybe do 20-50k extra box copies for the future and let everyone else get it digitally. It's already going to get plenty of free marketing on the internet. I don't think it needs to be on shelves in retail stores. Cut out the publishers completely.

If they partner with a publisher, the publisher will probably still get 50% or more of the game for manufacturing, marketing, and shelving the game. That would be ridiculous imo.

Originally Posted by TheSisko
There are more than 42,000 old school RPG fans in the world. How else would you explain the numbers increasing? New fans being born?

The good news is that even if not one single person buys the game once it's completed, it's still a better deal than getting $2M from a publisher.

Sure I was just trying to make a point that lots people are probably sitting on their money and waiting to see if this turns out well or crashes and burns. My guess is that another 50,000 people will buy the game when it's released.

Originally Posted by TheSisko
Your pessimism is unwarranted, "Wasteland 2" isn't going to be a no-budget indie game or an obscure release that no one will notice.

I'd be surprised if it didn't sell at least 500K copies in a short amount of time. Witcher 1 sold 400K copies in 2011, 4 years after its release.

Sure but the Witcher is a realtime action RPG with stellar graphixxxx(for it's time) and quicktime event based combat. WL2 is a turnbased topdown partybased rpg with graphics that will most likely be considered dated by the masses.

Originally Posted by Lemonhead
Sure but the Witcher is a realtime action RPG with stellar graphixxxx(for it's time) and quicktime event based combat. WL2 is a turnbased topdown partybased rpg with graphics that will most likely be considered dated by the masses.

It's also 4 years old, translated from Polish and released by a small European developer.

What do you base your estimate on? Do you have data on recent high-profile turn-based RPGs with well known developers working on them selling very poorly?
Hardcore strategy games from Paradox Interactive like the Hearts of Iron and Europa Universalis series sell several 100K's and I can't imagine that Wasteland 2 will have less appeal than such games.

I mean really, 50K is extremely poor sales. Only a completely abysmal game that was ripped to shreds by critics before release or an indie game from an unknown developer would sell such low numbers.

Originally Posted by Lemonhead
I'm not basing the estimate on anything. Just a guess. Chill.

What are you basing your numbers on?

What numbers? That 50K is abysmal sales? I'm basing it on the fact that I've never heard of a game by a professional studio selling that poorly. It's simply very difficult to imagine that Wasteland 2 will be one of the worst-selling games of all time, especially considering the media attention it's bound to attract at release.

Originally Posted by TheSisko
What numbers? That 50K is abysmal sales? I'm basing it on the fact that I've never heard of a game by a professional studio selling that poorly. It's simply very difficult to imagine that Wasteland 2 will be one of the worst-selling games of all time, especially considering the media attention it's bound to attract at release.

It will also attract a lof of older gamers, people who usually have some moral and will buy it instead of just pirating it.

The Wasteland 2 Kickstarter is now at $2.34M while Double Fine was at $2.5M with 5 days left. Only a 7% difference.

The Double Fine Kickstarter accelerated to roughly twice the average funding rate the final 4 days and again twice that for the final 24 hours. It will be interesting to see if Wasteland 2 follows the same pattern. If it does, we should end up at just over $3M.

Originally Posted by TheSisko
What numbers? That 50K is abysmal sales? I'm basing it on the fact that I've never heard of a game by a professional studio selling that poorly. It's simply very difficult to imagine that Wasteland 2 will be one of the worst-selling games of all time, especially considering the media attention it's bound to attract at release.

Well, on the other hand 2D indie RPG games like Spiderwebs or Eschalon regularly sell in the <10000 unit range, afaik. So it's really hard to say. And, while these developers are seasoned pros, it is not a full studio that will do this, but a relatively small team, and not all physically located at the same place.
Still, I also expect it to do well, it's created a nice Hype already that should help it along.

I'm curious about the hype effect too. The people that are pumped on the game right now, will they still be pumped in 2 years? What if it takes 3? Also, let's say that Wasteland uses an engine that is already a year or two old. That means it'll be up to 5 years old on release. What effect will that have on new purchasers? I remember Might and Magic 8 tanked in sales compared to 7 and part of this was aged-engine related. Kickstarter basically means that a game will come close to breaking even, even if nobody buys it after release. However, that would be considered a disappointing failure by anyone who devoted 2+ years of their lives developing such a thing.

It's why I didn't back any of the kickstarters yet. It would have to be a game that I'm really excited about seeing get made. Wasteland 2 isn't that game, though I'm a potential customer at release.

Originally Posted by crpgnut
I'm curious about the hype effect too. The people that are pumped on the game right now, will they still be pumped in 2 years?

That is irrelevant, the people who are hyped right now have already paid for the game. Just being the 2nd big Kickstarter-funded game will ensure its eventual launch will be hyped and publicized.

Originally Posted by crpgnut
Also, let's say that Wasteland uses an engine that is already a year or two old. That means it'll be up to 5 years old on release.
What effect will that have on new purchasers? I remember Might and Magic 8 tanked in sales compared to 7 and part of this was aged-engine related.

I wasn't aware that any game could launch with a cutting edge engine. All games have development cycles. Many niche (not indie) games have lower budgets than Wasteland 2 will have and don't have cutting-edge graphics, yet sell plenty of copies.

Originally Posted by TheSisko
That is irrelevant, the people who are hyped right now have already paid for the game. Just being the 2nd big Kickstarter-funded game will ensure its eventual launch will be hyped and publicized.

I wasn't aware that any game could launch with a cutting edge engine. All games have development cycles. Many niche (not indie) games have lower budgets than Wasteland 2 will have and don't have cutting-edge graphics, yet sell plenty of copies.

Not irrelevant at all. See, word of mouth helps to generate sales. The purchasers that are hyped now, will they still be talking up the game two years from now? This a question that can't be answered yet, just asked.

Crysis seemed cutting edge to me. However, I get your point. I think they need to choose carefully if they decide to go with a pre-made engine. Some engines age better than others, as I noted about MM8. Fortunately, the whole graphics scene is moving much slower than in the past, so they might be safe.

I'll bet it will get strong word-of-mouth, if no reason other than original supporters will be keen to see their choice ratified - it's human nature.

The graphics simply won't be cutting edge or anywhere close to it, so I can't see that as an issue. It won't appeal to must-be-better-than-Crysis fans but the target market who weren't prepared to Kickstart will still buy it. Ultimately, while I'm sure inXile would like the sales to support future developments, it doesn't matter as much as usual because the development has already been paid. They'll be disappointed if they they don't make some nice money but assuming they don't disappoint the original pledgers, they can always go back to Kickstarter again.