Meteorologist Paul Douglas writes about Minnesota weather daily, trying to go beyond the "highs" and "lows" of the weather story to discuss current trends and some of the how's and why's of meteorology. Rarely is our weather dull - every day is a new forecast challenge. Why is the weather doing what it's doing? Is climate change a real concern, and if so, how will my family be affected? Climate is flavoring all weather now, and I'll include links to timely stories that resonate with me.

Friday, August 15, 2014

From Drenched to Dry

From Drenched to DryBy Todd Nelson

"Summer
breeze, makes me feel fine." Ahh, the faint hum of a distant lawn mower
and the occasional buzz of a covert cicada are sounds I wish I could
bottle up now and open during a cold dark January day.

Who
could forget the soaked, mosquito-ladened start to our summer... Good
grief, you could barely go outside without getting eaten alive by those
bloodsucking beasts! June was the wettest on record for the state.
Minneapolis had it's 2nd wettest June on record with 11.36" of rain,
only 0.31" behind the wettest on record set in 1874! Since then, we've
endured 7 weeks of dry weather. In fact, according to the State
Climatology Office, "parts of southern MN have had one of its driest
June 25 to August 12 periods on record! Most of central and southern MN
are nearly 2" to 5" below normal rainfall."

The
weekend appears to be somewhat unsettled with spotty thunder chances
bubbling up during the afternoon/evening hours. However, early next week
could bring a little more relief for lawns and gardens.

We
will dry out just in time for the start of the MN State Fair Thursday.
Mild temps and a hint of summer humidity will be served on a stick late
this week.

1981: Chilly across Minnesota with Tower reporting a low of 33 degrees.

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Average High/Low for MSPAugust 16th
Average High: 81F (Record: 99 in 1988)
Average Low: 62F(Record: 47 in 1962)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times
Sunrise: 6:16am
Sunset: 8:17pm

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Moon Phase for August 16th at Midnight1.2 Days Before First Quarter

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Minneapolis Temp Trend
A
quick glance at the temperature trend below for MSP, guidance suggests
that we hover just above average highs over the next several days with a
slightly warmer trend toward the end of next week. The somewhat less
reliable extended forecast suggests cooler conditions moving in for the
first full week of the MN State Fair.

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2014 Fair Foods
Thanks
to www.MNStateFair.org for a look at the NEW 2014 Fair Foods!! With the
start of the fair quickly approaching, my taste buds are going through withdrawals. I've got my eyes set on the French Toast PB&J at the
Robbinsdale OES Dining Hall!

Great Day for Golf!
Thanks
to my brother-in-law Wade for the image below from the 1st fairway at
Baker National Golf Course. What a stunning day for golf it was on
Friday!

Duluth, MN
Another stunning image from Duluth, MN. Thanks to my good friend Susie Martin for the picture and have a great time!

Saturday Weather Outlook
It'll
be a warm and summery Saturday with temps in the mid 80s across the
central and southern part of the state. Northern MN will be cooler with
highs in the mid/upper 70s as a cool front slides in from Canada. This
front will also kick off a few isolated afternoon showers/storms with
perhaps a few heavy downpours here or there.

Weather Outlook
The
loop below suggests the accumulated precipitation from AM Friday
through PM Sunday. Note that the entire state is not expected to get a
washout, but there could be pockets of heavy rain with any of the spotty
thunderstorms that pop up. Some of the heaviest rain will be found
across South Dakota and perhaps across southern Minnesota.

Dry Weather
No
doubt, the start of our summer was extremely wet! In fact, June was
considered to be the wettest on record for the state. Minneapolis saw
it's 2nd wettest June with 11.36" of rain, the wettest was set in 1874
at 11.67". For the past 7 weeks, we've been extremely dry across much of
the state. Lawn and gardens have been struggling quite a big unless
you've been diligently working on your sprinkler skills. I know my lawn
looks a little stressed/brown and my flowers have looked better.
According to the MN State Climatology Office, parts of central and
southern MN are nearly 2" to 5" below average rainfall from June 25th to
August 12. Parts of southern MN have actually had one of its driest
June 25 - August 12 periods on record!

"The Dog Days of Summer
occur roughly from July 3 to August 11 timed with the appearance of the
"Dog Star" Sirius. The 2014 "Dog Days" have been characterized by a
long stretch of dry weather and generally mild temperatures. The last
seven weeks have been dry. In fact, from June 25 to August 12 most of
central and southern Minnesota was from two to five inches short of
normal. As of August 12, the Drought Monitor shows that a small area of
south central Minnesota has been categorized as "Abnormally Dry"."

Minnesota Drought Monitor
According
to the U.S. Drought Monitor, due to the recent dry weather, a little
sliver of southern MN has once again been put back into "Abnormally Dry"
conditions. However, the rest of the state is drought free.

Here's a blurb from the U.S. Drought Monitor about our recent dry weather:

"However,
in areas that missed the heavier precipitation, some areas of abnormal
dryness were introduced, specifically in western Nebraska, western South
Dakota, southwestern Wisconsin, north-central Iowa and adjacent
Minnesota, and north-central Missouri. These areas generally received
well under half of normal rainfall since mid-July, and 60-day shortages
of 2 to almost 4 inches affect north-central Missouri, north-central
Iowa and adjacent Minnesota, and southwestern Wisconsin."

National Weather Outlook
Looking
at the national weather from PM Friday through PM Sunday, note the next
bubble of high pressure sliding into the Great Lakes Region. This is
will help to push most of the heavier rainfall potential from the
Dakotas into Iowa. This has been a fairly common occurrence over the
last several weeks with most of Minnesota missing out of some of the
heaviest rainfall potential. These high pressure bubbles tend to bring a
glancing blow of slightly cooler than normal temperatures. You'll
notice a slightly cooler/less humid air mass moving in by Sunday.

Precipitation Outlook
According
to NOAA's HPC, the 3 day precipitation outlook suggests the heaviest
precipitation across the Midwest bypassing Minnesota by way of the
Dakotas to Iowa and eventually down into the Ohio Valley. Thanks to an
area of high pressure sliding into the Great Lakes Region, most of the
heavy rainfall potential will be blocked from making it into the Upper
Mississippi Valley through much of the weeend.

I See Russia!
Thanks
to my good friend and colleague, Bryan Karrick for the image below who
is on an amazing trip across Alaska. Here's a more recent photo from
Wasilla, AK where you can actually see Russia! Thanks Bryan! Have a
great time!

Heavy Rain in Florida
Thanks
to my good friend Bay Scroggins for the image below out of Doral, FL
where heavy rain fell earlier this week. Interestingly, there were a
number of significant rainfall records last week from the Ohio Valley to
the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.

Significant Rainfall Past 7 Days
There
were several rainfall records last week as a slow moving storm system
crossed through the eastern half of the country. Note all the big red
blobs, which indicate near 5" of rain or more.

Here are some of the more impressive rainfall records from the last several days.

The Landscape of a Comet
Here's an interesting look at a comet from close range.

"On
August 6th, Europe's Rosetta spacecraft rendezvoused with Comet
67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko and began to fly alongside it. Seven days
later, mission scientists released this spectacular view of the comet's
double-lobed core. A closer look reveals many interesting features:
While the comet's head (in the top half of the image) is scored with
parallel linear features, the neck is peppered with boulders resting on a
smooth underlying terrain. In comparison, the comet's body (lower half
of the image) is jagged and dimpled by crater-like depressions. Now
imagine this magnificent landscape ruptured by dozens of geysers spewing
dust and gas into space. Future pictures may show exactly that. Rosetta
will follow this comet for more than a year as it approaches the sun.
In 2015, if not sooner, solar heating will activate the comet's icy
core, creating a riot of activity the likes of which no spacecraft has
ever seen before. Stay tuned for that."

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About Me

Welcome to my weather blog. Every day I sift through hundreds of stories, maps, graphics and meteorological web sites, trying to capture some of the most interesting weather nuggets, the stories behind the forecast. I'll link to stories and share some of the web sites I use.
I'm still passionate about the weather, have been ever since Tropical Storm Agnes flooded my home in Lancaster, PA in 1972. I've started 5 weather-related companies. "EarthWatch" created the world's first 3-D weather graphics for TV stations - Steven Spielberg used our software in "Jurassic Park" and "Twister". My last company, "Digital Cyclone", personalized weather for cell phones. "My-Cast" was launched in 2001 and is still going strong on iPhone, Android and Blackberry. I sold DCI to Garmin in 2007 so I could focus on my latest venture: WeatherNation.
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Twitter name: pdouglasweather