Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Taking Suggestions...

We're obviously not going to do any polls over Thanksgiving Weekend- you can look forward to the rest of our national and North Carolina surveys to get your poll fix at the start of next week. We will go in the field Monday night though in a couple of states so my questions are what states should we do and what match ups should we poll? At this point I want to focus on states where we can look at a Senate and/or Gubernatorial race in addition to the Presidential contest. When we run out of states with other interesting contests we'll start doing President only polls.

So tell us what states you want to see a poll in and what we should be looking at within those states...and have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Gary Johnson against Bingaman in New Mexico. It's a Presidential swing state which Bush won in '04 and Obama won in '08. But it has a safe feel for Democrats.

It's a place where Johnson has name recognition and is a credible opponent to a popular incumbent. If Johnson can compete in New Mexico then most of the Democratic slate is in danger of being wiped out in 2012. Has a sort of West Virginia dynamic going for it as a barometer for 2012.

Kentucky. It's the only election in 2011 with an incumbent Democrat Governor. In light of Rand Paul's recent double digit victory, how much depth does the Tea Party movement have going forward? There are two announced Republican tickets: businessman/state representative Moffett/Harmon and Senate President/Ag Secretary Williams/Farmer. Do either of these tickets have what it takes to come out victorious? Or should Republicans look for other alternatives in the primary, such as former U.S. Ambassador Cathy Bailey, who's rumored to be considering entering the field.

Maryland - With the era of Ehrlich gone.. How about Cardin vs. Mary Kane or Harford County Executive David Craig. Craig has been a Mayor, Senator, Delegate, and is President of the Maryland Asso. of County Executives..

A few states that may have competitive gov and sen races:WV-Also poll on whether voters want a 2011 or 2012 gov election, Tomblin and Tennant as D's against Capito and Sen. Clark Barnes, who has announced his run Also test Manchin vs Capito for the Senate race

VT-One of the most underpolled states of 2010. 2012 gov, Shumlin vs Auditor Tom Salmon, also potential senate matchups with Sanders vs Douglas, and maybe even a 3 way, if a Dem decided to challenge Sanders

Or, maybe one of the 2011 races. Ya'll haven't polled MS or LA in awhile. Could Childers or Taylor make it competitive in MS? In LA, now that Jindal's oil spill glow has worn off, is he still a lock to win re-election? Test him against Caroline Fayard, who beat expectations in the Lt. Gov race and is the whole Dem bench in LA. Also, test the Dems last remaining statewide offices in these states, the AG's, to see if these states are done with Dems altogether, or if they are willing to keep the kind that sues the Obama admin over HCR.

I second all those who proposed Missouri. It'd be great both because of the Senate race and because of the Gov race. Also, some potential challengers to McCaskill (Talent, Steelman) are well-known enough that the poll would be meaningful.

Same in Massachusetts. People like Capuano, Patrick have enough statewide name recognition for the poll to be valuable.

And I'd love to see a poll of Sherrod Brown's chances in Ohio. (Rep. Jordan looks like he'll run.)

Another vote for Arizona, at the Senate and Presidential levels. I'm particularly interested in the presidential levels because of what we saw in the demographics for 2010.

John McCain won Arizona by about 8.5%. He lost the Hispanic vote 44-56. This year, McCain lost the Hispanic vote by 22-78. He went from losing the Hispanic vote by 12 to losing the Hispanic vote by 56, a 44-point swing. Hispanics made up 14% of the Arizona electorate in 2010.

A 44 point swing among 14% of the electorate is worth 6.16% of the total vote. Therefore, if McCain's 'favorite son' advantage was worth 2.34% or more, a non-Arizonan Republican would lose the presidential race. It would be very interesting to see how President Obama does in a hypothetical matchup against the other named Republican candidates thus far.

Similarly, it would be interesting to see how Kyl does. He won 53-44 in 2006, taking home over 40% of the Hispanic vote. If he were to see a matching swing among Hispanic voters as McCain did, Kyl would be in for a real nailbiter.

It's not state-specific, but another thing I'd like to see asked would be what happens if one of the Big Four Republicans (Palin, Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich) opts out of running. My guess is that Palin's support would trend toward Huckabee, Huckabee's would trend toward Gingrich, Romney's would trend toward Gingrich, and Gingrich's would split between Huckabee and Romney. But that's highly speculative.

I like the suggestions already made, but what about Texas and Arizona, both for the Senate races and for the presidential race, and Tennessee, at least for the Senate race? Also, what about Georgia for the presidential race? I can't imagine anyone else will be polling them. It's certainly harder for the Senate races, because it's not at all clear whom the Democrats will nominate, but it'd still be interesting to see how the incumbents do against a generic Democrat.

Why can't you poll Indiana? Obama won it in 2008 but seems like he'd be unlikely to win it again in 2012, and there's a Senate race in the offing with Lugar. I'd still rather see Arizona, but Indiana doesn't seem like a bad option on the face of it.

Indiana requires automated polling to at least be introduced by a live interviewer, which adds considerable additional expense. Since our public polling is pro bono, and no one's paying us to do it, we dip into our profits to be able to provide it for you all.

Please poll Chris Christie against Obama in New Jersey. If the numbers prove to be bad for Obama, it would suggest Obama would indeed have a problem against a well-known Republican figure in some blue states

Top picks definitely should be Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, and Florida. Colorado has no Sen or Gov race, but I think it's going to be the firewall for Obama's reelection, along with New Hampshire. Obama can lose OH, FL, VA, IN, and NC and still win if he carries Colorado and New Hampshire (in addition to states he won by larger margins). If he loses Colorado, he's probably lost the states that were closer and therefore the election.

MISSOURI - McCaskill is going to be vulnerable, but would make a good bellweather for the 2006 Senate class (McCaskill's race in MO is probably a good average of Tester in MT and Webb in VA). Gov. Nixon should be in good shape for reelection, especially compared to McCaskill. It was the closest state in the 2008 presidential race, so it would be interesting to see how much things have changed for Obama since then.

INDIANA - Lugar is going to get teabagged; why not be the first pollster to call it? You could do the same in Maine, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah! Half the Republicans in Class 1 will get teabagged out of their primaries. Gov race should be interesting, as would seeing how poorly Obama does now compared to 2008. Can't see Daniels winning the tea-fueled GOP Sen primary either, so test multiple people.

OHIO - Sen Brown is a solid progressive in a swing state and will be very vulnerable. Ohio would be THE best gauge of Obama's reelection chances.

FLORIDA - Nelson will be a huge target, and Florida is a critical state in presidential races.

I highly suggest conducting senatorial election polling in key battleground states such as Michigan, Ohio, and North Dakota due to the incumbents winning by large margins in 2006 and because those were states in which Republicans scored victories in the 2010 midterm elections.

New Mexico: Gary Johnson vs. Jeff Bingaman. Johnson has awkwardly been extremely politically active as of late, and I doubt he's running for President, so that scenario seems more likely.

Texas - With Kay Bailey retiring, do the Dems have a shot here? Bill White? There have also been whispers Debra Medina, failed Gubernatorial candidate, will give this one a shot. Good state for GOP nomination as well.

How about the ones that are red & swing states with Dem senators such as North Dakota (which hasn't been polled lately), Ohio, Missouri, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania? With the 2012 election campaigns on the horizon it seems quite reasonable.

It would be interesting to see the generic ballot question being broken down into more specific categories. For example, have a question like "Considering only Social Issues like Abortion, Gay Marriage, etc., which party best represents your views" and ask those kind of questions for other things like the economy or foreign policy.

We're knee-deep in generic ballot polls, but very few people have looked into which particular issues boost a party up and which issues pull a party down with the general public.