Siena: Latimer Has Slim Lead In Senate Race

Democratic Senate candidate George Latimer, a state assemblyman, held a slim 3 percentage-point lead over Republican Bob Cohen for an open Westchester County seat, a Siena College poll today found.

Latimer had a 44 percent to 41 percent lead over Cohen, the poll found. With a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points, the race is essentially a dead heat heading into the November election.

“It won’t be surprising if this stays close until the end,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement.

The poll results confirm that the battle to succeed retiring Sen. Suzi Oppenheimer, D-Mamaroneck, will be among the top races in New York as Republicans seek to maintain their Senate majority.

Republicans hold a 33-29 seat majority, and both parties have been spending heavily in the suburban district, where Democrats outnumber Republican by 10 percent.

Siena College, based near Albany, is polling top Senate races and released its first two today. In a Monroe County race, Republican Sean Hanna, an assemblyman, led Democrat Ted O’Brien, a county legislator, 47 percent to 39 percent, Siena said,

The poll found that Latimer, of Rye, and Cohen both had strong support within their party. Cohen led 43 percent to 34 percent among independents.

Cohen, of Scarsdale, led among men by five percentage point, and Latimer had an 11-percentage-point lead among women. Latimer is pro-choice.

The poll found that the new district, which was redrawn this year by Senate Republicans, may aid Cohen. He lost to Oppenheimer by 730 votes in 2010.

Latimer had a 12-percentage-point lead in the part of the 37th District that remains unchanged; Cohen led by 9 percentage points in the new parts of the district, which stretches across lower and mid-Westchester.

Jobs and property taxes are the top issues for voters in the district, Siena said. The ads from the candidates have focused largely on those two issues. Westchester ranks first in the nation in property taxes.

The poll found that voters overall had a negative view of the Senate, by a margin of 51 percent to 35 percent. And they were evenly divided on whether they want Democrats or Republicans to hold the majority.

The poll also showed how the district is ideologically divided. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney had the support of 48 percent of voters and a 14-percentage-point lead among independents. President Obama had 47 percent of the overall voter support in the district.

Voters gave Cohen higher marks on the issue of property taxes, fiscal issues and job creation. But Latimer led on health care and education.

The poll was conducted Sept. 27 through Oct. 1 in telephone calls to 438 likely voters.