2013 speculation thread

Maybe we can already start early speculations about next year. What are your thoughts?

I think RBR are favourites once again. In car's performance, I think only McLaren can compete with them, but Macca always manage to threw titles away. But I'm very sure that if a RBR driver wins the title, it'll be Vettel, Webber seems to be vulnerable even against drivers in worse cars. And I think next season is mentally easier for Seb than this season, three titles is the benchmark for great drivers, and Seb has now passed it. Also, he's now the most successful driver with three titles, only Alonso can equal that next year, but not achieve a row of three titles. That can also make Seb more relaxed. But after three titles in a row, is Seb enough motivated to win the fourth?

McLaren can produce a great car but this season showed they can throw away a title they should've won. And they've lost Hamilton. Of course, Button is a champion driver, but I think he needs a dominant car to win the WDC, like he had in '09; there won't be enough mixed conditions races to give him wins. And Perez is a big question mark. I wouldn't be too surprised if he beats Button but neither I'd be surprised if he loses to Jenson. Still, unless Macca produces a dominant car, I think it's almost Checo who should win the WDC for Macca, I just don't believe Jenson can beat other drivers in equal machinery.

Ferrari will probably be one of the front-runners also next year. But i don't think they can produce as RBR and Macca can. That's why they must be flawless all the season and RBR and Macca must fail in designing the car or in the race weekends. And I have similar thoughts also about Lotus than I have about Ferrari. If they do everything perfectly well and others fail, also they can win the titles. But I don't believe Merc will be in title contention next year, they'll hardly win a race.

Anyway, I think it's almost guaranteed the titles will go to those teams. Of other teams, I think Williams will be closest to the top five, but repeating a race win from this year will be a big task. But I believe they can have a few podium finishes. But I'm not too sure Sauber can repeat this season's success. And I predict none of the new teams will still score a point.

- Mercedes to take a big step forward, cue Hamilton fans saying it's all him.
- Alonso takes the WDC in a very good Ferrari as RBR take a small step back
- The big 4 teams gap the mid field more than they have this year as the tyres will be less schitzo
- McLaren to struggle after a strong start

McLaren will suffer a bit from reduced constructors money, paying for customer engines from Mercedes, a relatively unknown quantity in Perez (at least for the first 1/2 season), and lower qualifying performances. They may well go backwards but I hope not.

Red Bull will build another fast car and Vettel will be there or therabouts at the end of the year. Webber won't be quite there despite me wishing he could win a championship before he finishes. They'll win many races and will contend for both championships.

Mercedes will do better than this year. Hamilton will spur Rosberg to do better and the two of them will do ok over the season. Not a championship but some race wins.

Ferrari will suffer another frustrating winter as they try to understand their car and they'll have their work cut out playing catchup through the year. Alonso will have another good season but not a championship I think. Masa will hopefully push Alonso much closer and be a genuine contender for race wins. Some race wins for Ferrari though, definitely.

Lotus Renault will continue their good form and will win more than one race and may well really contend for the championships. Raikkonen will deliver a stellar season before his interest in F1 begins to dwindle again the year after.

Not sure about the rest but I'd love to see a team like Caterham or Marrussia luck into a win at a wet Monaco after 3/4 of the field crashes out. That would be something and just reward for the hours that these teams put in for little reward in terms of results.

At the moment it's only speculation. I just think some drivers can grow a lot, especially Perez.

About who makes the best car; nobody knows, until Q1 in Melbourne.

In fact its easy to place the grid after 2 Winter Testing tracks. You already have a lot of data including qual lap and race pace. This year it was very easy to predict the early season, its all about who develops best in long terms

I just want McLaren and Ferrari to be able to win races on a regular basis again and for vettel not to win the championship. Don't care who does.

That would've been a lot more fun before Hamilton moved to Mercedes. It's a shame we never got a season of Alonso vs Hamilton clear one-on-one duel, now each in their own team.

Alonso vs Button doesn't quite have the same ring to it. But fair enough McLaren vs Ferrari is always a classic rivalry to a point. And 4 Vettel crowns in a row would be boring absolutely, agreed there.

In fact its easy to place the grid after 2 Winter Testing tracks. You already have a lot of data including qual lap and race pace. This year it was very easy to predict the early season, its all about who develops best in long terms

I think you can only say who won't do well in Oz after the winter tests.

If we go back to the start of the season most of our predictions would have been wrong. Ie look at how quick Merc were the first three races. So given we can't predict very well 6 months in advance, I'm not going to try to make calls even further into the future.

Hi everyone in 2013 I think RBR will have the best car but hopefully it will be close with Ferrari ,Mclaren and lotus and trying not to be bias hopefully Williams ( I am a Williams Fan) could fight for podiums.

Okay, I look at my crystal ball and make a 2013 championship prediction. Before any kind of winter testing. Even before the designs of new cars are completely finished.

1. Vettel (Red Bull). Still up there. Not the kind of drama like in 2010 or 2012 again, but not 2011-style domination either. This time clinches the title with one race in spare.
2. Alonso (Ferrari). The ban of DRS helps Ferrari in qualifying. Alonso can get even to front row on occasion in the dry. But over a season the package again is not special enough to beat Vettel-RBR. Strong second though.
3. Button (McLaren). Improves on his 2012 form, close to 2011-like performance. McLaren starts out strong, but struggles to develop properly, so Jenson doesn’t quite manage to keep up with the first two until the end.
4. Webber (Red Bull). Solid season as usual, including a couple of wins. Narrowly misses beating Jenson by a couple of points.
5. Raikkonen (Lotus). Solid season, but Lotus doesn’t quite have it in them to design the best car to challenge for the title. This time he doesn’t have as smooth season, suffers a couple of DNFs too, so ends up a fine 5th still.
6. Massa (Ferrari). Starts out in a good mood after a positive end to 2012, but inconsistencies hurt his driving again, so ends up down in 6th. Don’t know if Ferrari keeps him for 2014. Depends on Vettel and... Hulkenberg.
7. Perez (McLaren). A season of big swings. Has some great races, has some crashes. He gets even pole positions in answer to critics that he can’t qualify, but has some crap sessions too. Shows promise, becomes more consistent in the second half of 2013, but too late to improve on 7th.
8. Hamilton (Mercedes). Mercedes starts out strongly as usual. Hamilton gets to the front row, gets a couple of podiums. But in-season development pace and tyre-eating hurt them again, so in the end Lewis can’t keep up with the blokes ahead and finishes 8th.
9. Grosjean (Lotus). If he keeps his seat. Less erratic, but still erratic. So he can't match Kimi in the points again, less dramatically this time though.
10. Rosberg (Mercedes). Does his usual strong race in China and gives some competition to Lewis, but loses form badly as the season carries on. Scores barely any points in the end. Still ends up 10th.
11. Hulkenberg (Sauber). As usual starts out slowly in a new team, but in the second half of the season races strongly and collects consistent points. Almost catches Rosberg in the end.
12. Ricciardo (STR). Starts out slowly, but like Vettel in 2008 or Alguersuari in 2011, really hits great form in the second half of the season. The hiring of James Key helps, STR develops a strong car in the end. Hired by Red Bull for 2014.
13. Maldonado (Williams). Less erratic than in 2012, scores points more consistently, which enables him to end up with a higher championship position than in 2012. Doesn’t have the high of a race win though.

Behind that I don’t know, driver line-ups are not completed. But I think in 14th and 15th are the two Force Indias of Di Resta and whoever is alongside him (Alguersuari? Sutil?). 16th is Bottas – solid debut season for Williams. 17th and 18th are the disappointments of the season – Vergne and Gutierrez.

In a way speculating already about 2013 makes more sense than 2014 because the rules will stay the same. OTOH, why speculating if you know not much is going to change between teams, unless one really surprises but that's WAY too early to tell?

Cars will hardly change compared to this season, so don't expect any dramatic changes. McLaren had the fastest car in the last two races, but they lost Hamilton. With Button and Pérez behind the wheel you can't expect them to win the title. Ferrari will probably start rubbish again, like always. Mercedes was miles off the pace and even with Lewis on board they can't suddenly be a titel challenger. Lotus will be Lotus, lack of funds, not capable to fight untill the end. So it will probably be Red Bull again.

Maybe we can already start early speculations about next year. What are your thoughts?

I think RBR are favourites once again. In car's performance, I think only McLaren can compete with them, but Macca always manage to threw titles away. But I'm very sure that if a RBR driver wins the title, it'll be Vettel, Webber seems to be vulnerable even against drivers in worse cars. And I think next season is mentally easier for Seb than this season, three titles is the benchmark for great drivers, and Seb has now passed it. Also, he's now the most successful driver with three titles, only Alonso can equal that next year, but not achieve a row of three titles. That can also make Seb more relaxed. But after three titles in a row, is Seb enough motivated to win the fourth?

McLaren can produce a great car but this season showed they can throw away a title they should've won. And they've lost Hamilton. Of course, Button is a champion driver, but I think he needs a dominant car to win the WDC, like he had in '09; there won't be enough mixed conditions races to give him wins. And Perez is a big question mark. I wouldn't be too surprised if he beats Button but neither I'd be surprised if he loses to Jenson. Still, unless Macca produces a dominant car, I think it's almost Checo who should win the WDC for Macca, I just don't believe Jenson can beat other drivers in equal machinery.

Ferrari will probably be one of the front-runners also next year. But i don't think they can produce as RBR and Macca can. That's why they must be flawless all the season and RBR and Macca must fail in designing the car or in the race weekends. And I have similar thoughts also about Lotus than I have about Ferrari. If they do everything perfectly well and others fail, also they can win the titles. But I don't believe Merc will be in title contention next year, they'll hardly win a race.

Anyway, I think it's almost guaranteed the titles will go to those teams. Of other teams, I think Williams will be closest to the top five, but repeating a race win from this year will be a big task. But I believe they can have a few podium finishes. But I'm not too sure Sauber can repeat this season's success. And I predict none of the new teams will still score a point.

Anyway, my three title favourites are:

1. Vettel2. Alonso3. Räikkönen

Thanks for that summary of 2012. Now how about some speculation of 2013? Or is it really going to be the same again?

McLaren will suffer a bit from reduced constructors money, paying for customer engines from Mercedes, a relatively unknown quantity in Perez (at least for the first 1/2 season), and lower qualifying performances. They may well go backwards but I hope not.

Red Bull will build another fast car and Vettel will be there or therabouts at the end of the year. Webber won't be quite there despite me wishing he could win a championship before he finishes. They'll win many races and will contend for both championships.

Mercedes will do better than this year. Hamilton will spur Rosberg to do better and the two of them will do ok over the season. Not a championship but some race wins.

Ferrari will suffer another frustrating winter as they try to understand their car and they'll have their work cut out playing catchup through the year. Alonso will have another good season but not a championship I think. Masa will hopefully push Alonso much closer and be a genuine contender for race wins. Some race wins for Ferrari though, definitely.

Lotus Renault will continue their good form and will win more than one race and may well really contend for the championships. Raikkonen will deliver a stellar season before his interest in F1 begins to dwindle again the year after.

Not sure about the rest but I'd love to see a team like Caterham or Marrussia luck into a win at a wet Monaco after 3/4 of the field crashes out. That would be something and just reward for the hours that these teams put in for little reward in terms of results.

It's a good job they've added new revenue streams like all those lovely MP4-12C's they're selling... probably makes up for finishing 1 place lower in WCC.

Red bull will be strong from the start and win it at a canter, with no ebd to compensate for next season. Ferrari to be roughly the same performance wise but Massa will be stronger, leading to a slight fall in alonso's stock. Lotus take another little step and be more consistently at the front. Mercedes qualify well but fall back every race, mclaren the opposite. Button and hamilton crash into each other a lot. Sauber to be complete dogs, force India the same as usual, Williams to finish second in the wcc

In fact its easy to place the grid after 2 Winter Testing tracks. You already have a lot of data including qual lap and race pace. This year it was very easy to predict the early season, its all about who develops best in long terms

I think it's gonna be between Alonso and Kimi, with Alonso taking the title by few points. Nobody will be sure really who of them was better.
Hamilton will do a really good job at Mercedes but won't be able to fight for the championship. But yeah, I think he'll win races and get a lot of praise.
Perez to melt and Button to suffer from tire issues all year long but he may win a couple of races though.
RBR won't be bad, but I think they'll be slightly behind Ferrari and Lotus and on par with Mercedes (Hamilton will beat them anyway).
Alguersuari at FI will prove a lot of people wrong and if he ends up at Lotus, he'll finish right behind both Kimi and Alonso.

These are my speculations, which could be 100% or 0% regarding accuracy.

I think it's gonna be between Alonso and Kimi, with Alonso taking the title by few points. Nobody will be sure really who of them was better. Hamilton will do a really good job at Mercedes but won't be able to fight for the championship. But yeah, I think he'll win races and get a lot of praise. Perez to melt and Button to suffer from tire issues all year long but he may win a couple of races though. RBR won't be bad, but I think they'll be slightly behind Ferrari and Lotus and on par with Mercedes (Hamilton will beat them anyway). Alguersuari at FI will prove a lot of people wrong and if he ends up at Lotus, he'll finish right behind both Kimi and Alonso.

These are my speculations, which could be 100% or 0% regarding accuracy.

Where do I have to sign?

My head tells me it's going to be another 2011 unless McLaren improves a lot and Pérez is better than it seems. I'd love to be wrong.

Even if either of Ferrari, Mclaren or Mercedes have a strong car, here are my predictions :

-> Massa will match Alonso in the first half of the season, causing some discomfort for team Alonso. Things will start to get tricky in Ferrari around halfway mark of the season
-> Hamilton will find that Rosberg is no slouch and is as quick as him if not better in qualifying. Things will be very close but Hamilton will have the edge on Sundays.
-> Perez will struggle against Button for 4-5 races, after which he will regularly start beating him and take charge of the Mclaren team

In all of this, Vettel will start to take a big lead in the championship with only Raikkonen giving him close company, since both of these drivers will definitely be decisively better than their teammates next year. I predict a one sided championship battle between Vettel and Raikkonen with Seb taking his 4th crown.

It's a good job they've added new revenue streams like all those lovely MP4-12C's they're selling... probably makes up for finishing 1 place lower in WCC.

Revenue is irrelevant. The margin on them is the key and they are not a volume manufacturer. In terms of cash flow, I wouldn't be surprised if that money is reinvested in their automotive division on product decelopment rather all diverted into F1.

I don´t see any reason, why Mercedes should do better in 2013...is this wishfull thinking of the Hamilton-fans?

Because you are uninformed on what Mercedes are doing and what matters to you is negativity towards Hamilton as your posts say...Mercedes have said they are building a top team of engineers and more resources will go to F1 team so there's everything positive for a better 2013 than 2012...I guess it's better to have a dig at Hamilton and his fans...

"Brawn thinks Mercedes' form this season has been affected by a mid-season restructure, the benefits of which are taking some time to come through the system.

"I always believe a successful race car is less about some dramatic new design and more about how you've gone about achieving that design and then maintained the development of that design," he said.

It is about having the team function really well, so the ideas are flowing and the developments are flowing and then the car is maintaining its competitiveness.

"We had a pretty good winter, we started the first half of the season pretty strongly.

"The problem we had was we knew the process we had wasn't strong enough over time.

"We decided to restructure the aero group both in terms of facilities and personnel and that has an impact. If you do it over a winter it upsets the car then, but then if you do it over the summer it affects the development."

"What we've lacked, however, is overall performance. We haven't worked enough on parameters like aerodynamics and engine mapping."This is also because we've gone through deep restructuring, especially in the aerodynamics sector, also by moving from 50 per cent scale models to 60 per cent, which requires different technologies."We have invested heavily in the future, in the meantime paying heavily for it in the second half of the season, where a few tenths make a big difference."

Because you are uninformed on what Mercedes are doing and what matters to you is negativity towards Hamilton as your posts say...Mercedes have said they are building a top team of engineers and more resources will go to F1 team so there's everything positive for a better 2013 than 2012...I guess it's better to have a dig at Hamilton and his fans...

Lotus turned out the be the surprise after their pre-season pace was confirmed as pretty genuine at seasons start. With the tech regs remaining pretty static for 2013, which teams if any do you think will be the positive and negative surprise of 2013?(I didn't what to start a new thread as I felt this falls under 2013 speculation. Or perhaps I should and creat my first poll ).