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Projections for Sam Shields's Next Contract Are All Over the Board

With the start of free agency now approximately a month away, there's no consensus as to the size of contract Green Bay Packers cornerback Sam Shields might receive, at least from those projections published in the media.

Average per year predictions range from as little as $3.5 million to as much as $8.5 million for a player perhaps thought to be Packers' highest priority among their 17 unrestricted free agents this offseason.

On the high end of the contract forecasts, Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette talked to a scout this past week that felt Shields could command a figure as high as the $8.5 million previously mentioned.

A number like that would put Shields on par with fellow Packers cornerback Tramon Williams, who's entering the final year of a four-year contract in 2014, averaging $8.25 million per season that ranks eighth in the NFL, according to Spotrac.com.

Among the lower-end projections is an article from Jason Fitzgerald of OvertheCap.com.

"(Shields) would likely be looking at a deal similar to that of Kyle Arrington who earned $4 million a season from New England," writes Fitzgerald. "His bottom figure should be Tramaine Brock of the 49ers whose contract has a base value of $3.5 million a year."

The low-end projection for Shields might be perhaps too low, but Fitzgerald does have a method behind his madness.

While the top-paid cornerbacks in the NFL such as Darelle Revis, Champ Bailey and Brandon Carr have contracts averaging in excess of $10 million per season, the market softened significantly for cornerbacks in free agency last year with no player receiving a contact that averaged in excess of $6 million annually.

From Dougherty's article:

Last year, the four cornerbacks to come out of free agency with the highest-paying contracts were Philadelphia’s Cary Williams ($5.7 million average), Kansas City’s Sean Smith ($5.5 million), New Orleans’ Keenan Lewis ($5.11 million) and San Diego’s Derek Cox ($5 million). Their guaranteed money ranged from $5.75 million to $7.65 million.

So where will the contract for Shields fall? Probably somewhere between the high and low projections suggested earlier but erring toward the bigger side.

What can't be ruled out, however, is the Packers using either the franchise or transition tag on Shields, a possibility both parties––Shields and the Packers––would probably like to avoid.

At first blush, the projected franchise-tag figure for cornerbacks of $11.26 million (as estimated by CBSSports.com) looks to be exorbitant. But it's also a number that is wiped off the books after only one year.

Shields' agent Drew Rosenhaus, who's known for driving a hard bargain, must tread a fine line between trying to get top dollar for his client and getting fair market value.

If Shields and Rosenhaus insist on contract that's going to pay the cornerback in a range nearing $10 million per season instead of negotiating in good faith, they risk getting slapped with the franchise tag or transition tag that potentially only delays Shields' ability to ink a long-term deal.

Furthermore, if the Packers would seriously consider paying Shields a contract averaging nearly $8.5 million, would an extra $2.75 for just one year under the franchise tag be a breaking point for them? That point is debatable, but it's probably not out of the question.

Until free agency actually begins, the Packers have exclusive negotiating rights with Shields until March 8. While talks may be ongoing, there's likely to be a face-to-face meeting at the NFL Combine less than two weeks away when agents and all NFL teams are in the same city at the same time.

Just 26 years old, Shields could be a centerpiece for the Packers defense to build around for years to come, but they also have to fit his contract within a salary-cap structure that's already eaten up in large part by quarterback Aaron Rodgers and linebacker Clay Matthews.

The Packers currently have plenty of space available, but it will be eaten up quickly when they start to re-sign other members of their free agent class or extend players such as wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.

Brian Carriveau is the author of the book "It's Just a Game: Big League Drama in Small Town America," and editor of Cheesehead TV's "Pro Football Draft Preview." To contact Brian, email [email protected].

When one says that someone is strictly a cover corner and then says people are dreamin about him being a centerpiece of the defense because he is said cover corner that is implying that cover corner is bad.

Yeah, he's not just a cover corner-his tackling will never be considered great but it's a lot better than it used to be (even in '13), he's average at worst in that category and I'll gladly take that along with his cover skills.

Do you ever post anything positive or, for that matter, insightful, Arlo? How bad must your life be that you can't even enjoy something that exists solely to entertain? Didn't your mama ever tell you that if you have nothing nice to say, don't say anything at all? Geez, Kyle, quit being a Negative Nancy and lighten up.

Not only is he a "cover corner" who you are not afraid to put on any WR but he makes "big plays", some of his best picks have been in the play offs since his rookie year and when he makes a pick he has an opportunity to take it to the house. Who in their right mind wouldn't accept "average tackling" under those circumstances. Add to that he is just 26 and has years of starting experience to boot. Get serious.

I was going to point that out too. You beat me to it... Sanders is widely considered one of the best CB in NFL history and his tackling was never more than ordinary. Simply put, tackling, especially in the running game is NOT what CB are paid to do. If they are great at it, it certainly adds to their value. But its hardly worthy mentioning in Shields case, since he made a dramatic improvement in that area in '13.

Another argument for the Franchise Tag is it gives them one more year to evaluate House, Hayward and Hyde; Tramon comes off the books and it's easier to make a decision on if Shields is worth long term dollars.

Agreed. It also gives them another year to see if Shields is really worth a high dollar contact. Interesting (and a bit disappointing) that Williams, but not Shields, was making plays at the end of the year.

Dallas, yo, not to mention he essentially shut down Antonio Brown-who was one of the most prolific WRs in the League-and Jeffrey/Marshall; can't fault him for SF, as he was injured, though THAT could be an issue as he's missed a handful of games in each of the past 2 years.

Except the Pack don't exactly have the cap space next year to sign him to an $11M 1-year deal-$26M and possibly about $3.3M more with the cap increase for '14 and they have 17 FAs to sign, including the only player on their team whose ever started a game at center and a bunch of draft picks.

Shields, EDS, and Flynn won't come cheap, then there's Quarless, Pickett, Jolly, and perhaps Kuhn and/or Neal and/or Lattimore. Then there are the Rookie contracts (not just draft picks either) as well as TT's keenness for saving a few mil in cap room for emergencies.

Jolly and Finley are done in the NFL, there is no reason to mention them. Shields and EDS are they only ones who are important to resign. Maybe you can add Neal to that list. Out of them all, Shields is the only FA who is not an average or below football player, he will cost 6-8 mil per year. EDS, Jones and Neal will cost ~3 mil per, and Flynn, Pickett, Quarless and Kuhn can have ~1 mil per. The rest can take veterans minimum or they can walk.

Matt Flynn is going to be very cheap. He'll probably get the veterans minimum and be happy about it considering he's bombed out of 3 teams in 2 years.

EDS is going to be pretty cheap as well considering he's not that great of a center. The only reason we'll resign him is because we don't have another center on the roster who's actually played in the NFL. No one is going to be throwing tons of money at EDS with Alex Mack on the open market.

Quarless might fetch some money somewhere, perhaps with McAdoo in NY, but Pickett, Jolly, and Kuhn aren't going to be expensive.

Jolly's career isn't over, not by a long shot; Finley's may be but even that isn't resolved yet. I would consider Flynn quite important considering what happened this season, unless they want to spend a relatively high draft pick on a QB when there are other issues to be addressed.

A bad as our safeties are we desparately need 2 good cover guys on the outside or we will get killed. Right now Tramon and Shields are key pieces to this defense. I have very little confidence that House will ever amount to much, Bush sucks in coverage, Hyde is too slow and Hayward needs to get back on the field. Gotta pay Shields or we will pay a big price down the road I'm afraid.

My guess all along was about 7 mill a year for Shields. We'll say $7.25 mill over 4 years, so 4 years $29 mill. Very fair contract for both sides. Would love to see us counter that deal by restructuring Tramon's deal. Maybe down to around $4.5 mill/yr for Tramon, but extend him another 2-3 yrs. Our CBs would set for the next 3 yrs w/ Tramon &amp; Shields manning the perimiter &amp; Hayward holding down the slot.

Restructure Tramon, free up $ and give Shields in the $5.5-$6 range...should be a fair realistic number. If Tramon refuses, cut him. We can't afford both at full price so if you have to choose, it's a no brainer. Then,,how about cutting Butnett also. If after 4 years he's getting worse, why not? We can sign Pollard with $ saved. .Draft Ha Ha or Prior in the first....with Hayward and Hyde, DB's should be solid. Then TT wakes u and says "I like our guys" keep drafting badly, unearth those ace steeet guys and have Dom and that crack staff continue to "develop"

How can we take you seriously if you can't spell. Take some extra time to get your point across or go back to first grade. You are worse than those teenage girls when texting. maybe you are drunk off that same flavored crap that they drink and call beer. Go pack

How can we take you serious when you say 5.5 to 6M range? Tramon's contract will be the starting point for the Packers and Shields will be looking to exceed it. 9 to 10M is the likely number that will be agreed on.

Who gives a shit what you take seriously? In your "opinion" you actually believe Shields body of work equals what Revis has accomplished? After '10 Williams looked like might, he hasn't and will be restructured. Shields is good not the best and will be paid accordingly

Easy with the name calling bobby brown (listen to the frank zappa tune). Save your gm skills for your fantasy league. Nobody cares. In a few weeks we will find out what the nfl thinks of shields when he signs. In the meantime we can all agree that he is the one free agent that we cannot lose right now. He should be happy the pack gave him a shot in the first place but he has the biggest scumbag agent in football. He could ruin it for both parties.

Dude, seriously Darrell Revis' contract is 16M Per. How in any universe is paying Shields 9M anywhere near that astronomical number? You need to check some facts before you act like you know what your talkin about! Tramon is getting a little over 8M and Shields discusstions will start in that neighborhood.

No, please no. We need a center with NFL experience. EDS is important, but is not a necessity. Tretter hasn't played a snap in the NFL. He was a tight end his first two years and LOT his last 20 games for Cornell. I would only roll the dice on Tretter at C if EDS wants north of $3.75m per year, depending on guaranteed money. Can't we have a year where only one O-line spot is weak? Last year LOT and ROT were well below average.

Didn't say we don't need him...he's the only FA we really do need. Point is, his body of work so far is not worthy of top tier $. Wouldn't let him walk if ultimately $7m became the number, but franchising him or anywhere in the $10m range is crazy. Now I see why you're cranky. Ray and Frank are your heroes. Put the Nehru jacket and beads back on an just chill old timer!

Hey bobby, I didn't say shields is worth $10m. I said we will find out what the nfl thinks he's worth. Your price is probably right on but his agent is drew and is always trying to get twice what his players are worth. I can't wait till that scumbag agent is gone. I am not cranky, I am not an oldtimer,(I had to look up nehru and that was funny) and you need to listen to bobby brown because that is funny and was a shout out to you. That being said I am going to go smoke a joint and forget about couch gm's. Peace, go pack!

Hey bobby, I didn't say shields is worth $10m. I said we will find out what the nfl thinks he's worth. Your price is probably right on but his agent is drew and is always trying to get twice what his players are worth. I can't wait till that scumbag agent is gone. I am not cranky, I am not an oldtimer,(I had to look up nehru and that was funny) and you need to listen to bobby brown by Zappa because that is funny and was a shout out to you. That being said I am going to go smoke a joint and forget about couch gm's. Peace, go pack!

I read a scout/agent say Shields is probably in line for upwards of 8.5M. I figure Tramon's contract is a good starting point (8.25M). Packers are well known to reward their own, so the 8.5M is pretty close to what I originally guessed which was 9M or a little more.

There's always the possibility that somebody will way overpay for Shields and we lose him. Given that Rosenhaus is his agent that is not a far-fetched possibility. Our defense would go from bad to really really bad very quickly if we had to play a clown like House on the outside. Just hope we can get a deal done before he hits the open market.

House is not a "clown". He just took a step or 2 back. This is only his what -- 2nd or 3rd season actually playing? Which camp was it where he challenged for the starting CB outside of Tramon but was injured on a (expletive) punt cover? He's the only physical CB that we have outside of Tramon. Losing Shields would be huge but not the end. Either way,this year's draft,our organization needs to HIT way more than MISS.

After the Asomugha debacle you would think teams would be careful about huge contracts. Every fan base wanted him and now he's not even in the NFL anymore. Tag Sammy and sign EDS, let the rest test the market. Keep Flynn as cheap as you can, he already made his money thanks to the seachickens.

EDS should be back. I think he is a TT guy. You don't hear his name too much good or bad meaning he's not a pro bowler yet but he's consistant and doesn't make mistakes all the time. Rodgers will make sure he's back because he doesn't want his hands under a fourth butt in as many years.

Gotta love how all the 'homers' shift with the wind. We'll see how much you all defend SS when he signs elsewhere on March 12th. You pitiful homers will immediately trash him like you did all the rest who "dared" to leave GB for better opportunities.

You're a fool if you think SS will take a reduced contract to stay in GB.

I was thinking alot about the shields situation and it recently occurred to me that players like shields need to get off their high horses... I'm tired of teams shelling out money for"potentially" dominant players. As of yet ss has proven to be a slightly above average corner. Expecting a top tier contract without earning it is unrealistic and should not be entertained. And also a very simple solution exists. If he thinks he has so much potential offer a performance based contract. I really think that it is an under used tool and that all contracts in the NFL should be structured that way... It protects both parties and gives the player motivation to perform well over the years. Example of a contract would be paying a pedestrian 4.5 mil a year and offering bonuses based on on field performance and milestones. Like offerings 2mil dollar bonus if he gets 5 interceptions and an extra 2mil for 7total interceptions and something similar for passes defended.

I dont mind resigning shields. But I definitely dont want to over pay him he's not worth a top corner contract, but he's valuable to the packers so thats the only reason why I see he'll get a pretty good contract. I hope its a reasonable deal but dont break the bank and id hope he improves his game after getting his new deal.

I think Shields will get north of $8M per from another team offering guaranty money that will exceed $12M. My guess is TT saves face with fans by continuing negotiations right up until he signs elsewhere. But, I think TT will little more than a casual observer.

OTOH, if the market will be as soft as some think it will be for Shields, and he ends up signing for under $7M. I could see TT offering a three year $20M deal with $10M guaranteed. I do not expect that to happen, but, who knows?

The Packers once paid a mediocrity named AJ Hawk nearly $11 million in one season---2011, and offered a DT, BJ Raji, a joke figure of $8 million a year to make 17 tackles, with zero sacks. There's no reason why Shields' shouldn't get his due. $7-8 million over five seasons, at least. Stop low-balling the man.

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