Editorial: The party’s over; decision remains

The days immediately following the conclusion of national party conventions are not the best time to analyze a presidential race.

Polling numbers – and even anecdotal evidence such as neighborly conversations – reflect what is commonly called a “bounce” for candidates right after receiving their party nominations. The uptick in polling numbers follows a week of photo ops before adoring fans and non-stop attacks on the political opposition — no surprise there.

This year’s conventions were a bit different, according to Gallup, the granddaddy of all political polls. The conventions don’t draw the interest that they once did, so the bounces have been harder to discern. In his insightful blog “Polling Matters,” Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport reported that polling data showed almost no bounce at all for the GOP ticket of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan following the Republicans’ Tampa convention.

President Barack Obama and Democratic running mate Joe Biden fared a bit better. His national lead in Gallup’s daily tracking polls rose from 47-46 percent to 48-45 following the Democratic convention in Charlotte. Historically, the circus atmosphere of Democratic conventions – think back to Chicago in 1968 – have been more entertaining. This year, even Clint Eastwood was no match for the triple-teaming from Michelle Obama, former President Bill Clinton and the president himself.

Does the post-convention scenario mean the Republicans should hit the panic button? Not really. If bounces from conventions were lasting factors, those calendars that show the faces and terms of past presidents would look different. Political momentum shifts quickly, and that’s never been truer than in this digital age.

And while people these days seem to dig in earlier in support of their favorites, the number of undecided potential voters remains significant. There are nine weeks of unknowns remaining, and Election Day turnout also can be a difference-maker.

After its week in the political spotlight, North Carolina looms an important state in the upcoming vote. It is widely considered among political observers as one of the dozen or so “swing states” that will decide the Electoral College outcome.

Elon University has provided meaningful polling data for the state in recent years. Its numbers have emerged as ones to watch. In Elon’s pre-convention polling, Mitt Romney was leading in the state by a 47-43 percent margin. Six percent of the respondents said they were undecided.

Some people in this area, where the GOP’s supporters are the most vociferous, find the tightness of the statewide numbers hard to fathom, but they often forget that political leanings change noticeably as the focus shifts west into more urbanized regions of the state.

Romney will need to hold to his lead in North Carolina to stand much of a chance – his predicament in other swing states is not nearly as promising.

Page 2 of 2 - Tar Heel voters should pay close attention to the debates and other substantive aspects of the campaign. Their votes will be critical to the nation’s future in what will be an interesting and important election.