Seeing signs of a marginal threat so might as well start a thread. I would expect to see a general risk area at the least from SPC soon.

Not sure why they didn't add it with today's update... tomorrow's update should most likely add a 5% "See Text" region and it wouldn't surprise me if a small slight risk is needed near I-95. There's marginal LI/CAPE, some bulk shear, and a relatively moist squall line moving through, supporting locally heavy/strong thunderstorms.

Not sure why they didn't add it with today's update... tomorrow's update should most likely add a 5% "See Text" region and it wouldn't surprise me if a small slight risk is needed near I-95. There's marginal LI/CAPE, some bulk shear, and a relatively moist squall line moving through, supporting locally heavy/strong thunderstorms.

Which part of 1-95? I'm not good enough at reading these models yet to be able to figure it out myself.

These are my thoughts on the severe potential at this time. I'm testing out a different method for severe wx forecasting this year, with the two categories on the map below:

QUOTE

Category A - Isolated Risk: Category A risks represent isolated thunderstorm activity across the risk zone, where most places often stay dry but some of the thunderstorms may end up locally strong or severe. This zone also represents scattered or widespread rain/thunderstorm activity but only with a few locally strong/severe storms.Category B - Scattered Risk: Category B risks represent scattered thunderstorm activity across the risk zone, where some but not many storms end up reaching severe criteria. This risk category is issued for any of the following potentials: Isolated tornado risk, low to moderate hail/wind risk.

WOW!! I hope I'll see a thunderstorm here in Laconia,NH-Friday is my last day on vacation. Last year I received 1 inch of snow on my last day on vacation. I just remembered, my last big thunderstorm was in Laconia NH in September 2011.

Severe Weather Threat has decreased slightly for the Northeast/Middle Atlantic. But has increased for FL. Cannot completely dismiss the severe weather for the Northeast/Middle Atlantic because the strong forcing along the cold front will combine with the 500-1000J/Kg and create a few line segments (if 0-6km shear is SLIGHTLY higher than projected) if not than multicells will produce and isolated wind damage. The dry mid levels/widespread T/td spreads at the sfc will create a wind damage threat.

Florida- Increasing LLJ and storms intersecting warm front could create a few tornadoes.

Severe Wx threat is increasing for the Northeast and Mid Atlantic based off recent sfc obs and radar. Still going to be an isolated threat but vis sat imagery is showing continued sfc heating with stronger mid level winds increasing over the region favoring the organization of small scale line segments. More information here : Severe Wx Threat Increasing

looks like some small cells starting to pop just west of here. Had pretty much full sun all day. DPs are so low though which is not helping. Shear is starting to increse and instability weak but better than I thought it would be.

looks like some small cells starting to pop just west of here. Had pretty much full sun all day. DPs are so low though which is not helping. Shear is starting to increse and instability weak but better than I thought it would be.