10 reasons to watch UFC 166

On Saturday, the UFC returns to Houston’s Toyota Center for the third time for UFC 166, which features a trilogy fight between heavyweight champ Cain Velasquez and ex-champ Junior dos Santos, who this past December gave up the belt he won from Velasquez nearly two years ago in Anaheim, Calif.

After suffering a quick knockout loss at UFC on FOX 1, Velasquez rebounded to outstrike and outwrestle a flat-footed dos Santos en route to a decision at UFC 155. In current betting lines for the fight, that performance has earned the American Kickboxing Academy product the status of a 2-to-1 favorite.

Yet the bout’s competitiveness – and a two-year absence from Houston – have driven the event to sellout status. UFC President Dana White recently announced a sellout with $2.5 million in sales. The Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation, which oversees the event, also confirmed a packed house would see the rubber match.

Meanwhile, seven out of eight MMAjunkie.com staffers have picked Velasquez to retain his belt for his second consecutive title defense.

One punch is all it takes to change everything in the heavyweight division. But regardless of the outcome, you might not be seeing the last of this great matchup.

1. Rubber match to end rivalry, or a prelude to a quartet
Champ Cain Velasquez (12-1 MMA, 10-1 UFC) and Junior dos Santos (16-2 MMA, 10-1 UFC) have proven themselves to be a cut above the rest in the heavyweight division, so it’s no surprise that their rubber match hasn’t seen much delay. Saturday’s main event will determine who’s the best in the big-man division right now and likely set the stage for a title defense against Fabricio Werdum or the winner of Josh Barnett vs. Travis Browne. But don’t discount the possibility of another meeting between the top two heavyweights, who are still in the primes of their careers and have plenty of gas left in the tank.

2. Verbal chafing turns physical
It’s been fun watching Roy Nelson (19-8 MMA, 6-4 UFC) and Daniel Cormier (12-0, 1-0 UFC) rub each other the wrong way in interviews, but now Nelson gets the chance to chafe Daniel Cormier for real. After Cormier gave up on getting Texas’ athletic commission to tame Nelson’s shaggy, more-salt-than-pepper beard, we’ll see if it’s as much of a factor as he’s claimed, and whether Nelson even plans to make his facial hair a weapon. Both, after all, are expert grapplers, and no strangers to smothering opponents. But they also have dynamite in their fists, and you can bet they’d rather deliver a knockout that might bring a bonus – and a more definitive comeuppance.

3. DC’s light heavyweight blueprint
Cormier is raring to get a crack at UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones, and he’s announced that win or lose, he’ll be moving to 205 pounds to begin his title quest. In truth, the move is long overdue. Cormier is just as big a threat at light-heavy, and he won’t fight teammate and champ Cain Velasquez. Now, the question is whether Nelson sends him off in high fashion or embarrassment. Might he stay put with the latter? Would a loss for Velasquez present enough of upside to put off the weight cut? Did he ever really want to deprive himself for another reason than he has the tools to slim down safely and has beef with Jones? With the champ’s fight with Glover Teixeira set and Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson II a lock if the belt doesn’t change hands, Cormier faces a long wait and a lot of variables if he changes divisions. And as much fun as dieting is, it’s not very attractive without good reason.

4. Gilbert Melendez looking for another shot, Diego Sanchez trying to steal the show
Although they’re not as vocal as B.J. Penn fans, a fair number of people think ex-Strikeforce kingpin Gilbert Melendez (21-3 MMA, 0-1 UFC) won his April UFC debut opposite then-champ Benson Henderson. And if nothing else, the split-decision call proved Melendez was a half-step away from the top of the division. Although Anthony Pettis officially bridged that gap in August, “El Nino” is poised to take the No. 2 spot behind T.J. Grant in the 155-pound title picture if the champ retains the belt against Josh Thomson in December. Standing in his way is a dangerous matchup against Diego Sanchez (24-5 MMA, 13-5 UFC), whose toughness is matched by his ability to make opponents fight ugly. The eight-year UFC veteran struggled with weight returning to 155 after a second run at 170, so presumably he’ll have the kinks worked out this time around. If he’s able to upset Melendez, he stands to cut the line and get a second crack at UFC gold after a 2009 fight with then-champ Penn went horribly sideways.

5. Shawn Jordan‘s breakaway opportunity
Heavyweight prospects are hard to come by, and after a bad slip against Cheick Kongo, Shawn Jordan (15-4 MMA, 3-1 UFC) is on a roll with two straight wins against Mike Russow and Pat Barry. Onetime title challenger Gabriel Gonzaga (15-7 MMA, 10-6 UFC) is just the kind of win he needs to get to the next level in the division. Right now, it’s tough seeing him get past the division’s top five, but he’s only 28 years old. At heavyweight, there’s not much time to develop talent, so he’ll have to move fast. But he can provide some depth to a top-heavy class.

6. Expensive welterweights on the ropes
Signing former Bellator middleweight champion Hector Lombard (32-4-1 MMA, 1-2 UFC) came at a steep price tag for the UFC, who, according to the Viacom-owned promotion’s CEO, Bjorn Rebney, shelled out $700,000 for the fighter. We’ll have to take him at his word, as salary figures for his debut weren’t made public, and payouts for his next two fights also remain a mystery. But it’s safe to say that Lombard isn’t cheap, and he’s been an unstable investment for such a highly touted prospect. If unsuccessful against ex-Strikeforce welterweight champ Nate Marquardt (32-12-2 MMA, 10-5 UFC) in his first drop to 170, Lombard is looking at a 1-3 record inside the octagon, and that doesn’t bode well for his future. Veteran Marquardt isn’t exactly economical, either, and in losing his past two fights under the Zuffa banner, he’s on shaky ground. The loser of this fight could very well be sent packing.

7. Future contender at women’s bantamweight
Ex-Strikeforce champ Sarah Kaufman (16-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC) has suffered setbacks in her road back to gold, losing to Marloes Coenen and current UFC champ Ronda Rousey. Still, she’s considered one of the best women in the world at 135 pounds, and could fight back into title contention. Unfortunately, her octagon debut was pushed back when opponent Sara McMann was forced to withdraw from UFC Fight Night 27. But two months later, she returns with a new charge: Jessica Eye (10-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC). The former Bellator fighter was one of the biggest women in the 125-pound class before moving to bantamweight, and she has but one loss on her resume. This past December, she wowed the MMA world by choking out now ex-Bellator champ Zoila Gurgel. She now takes a big step up against Kaufman, and the bout’s winner could be in the running for the No. 2 spot behind injured title contender Cat Zingano.

8. Sotiropoulos’ last shot
In 2010, “The Ultimate Fighter 5″ veteran George Sotiropoulos (14-5 MMA, 7-3 UFC) was just about the hottest thing in the lightweight division. If he had bested Dennis Siver at UFC 127, he would have won eight straight in the octagon and might have earned a title eliminator. Instead, he lost a decision. He could have recovered from such a setback, but back-to-back knockout losses all but erased his hard-earned momentum. Against Strikeforce vet K.J. Noons (11-7 MMA, 0-1 UFC), he gets what is likely to be his last chance to prove he belongs in the octagon.

9. Time to get touchy, Fili
The ranks of Team Alpha Male’s UFC representatives are about to grow by one. Andre Fili (12-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) adds to the powerhouse camp’s presence at featherweight, where he’s won 12 of 13 bouts with his sole loss coming via injury. When he faces Jeremy Larsen (8-4 MMA, 0-2 UFC), who’s 0-2 in the octagon, “Touchy” Fili gets a chance to put the team back on the winning track after a much-publicized UFC winning streak came to an end. He might not be the next Chad Mendes, but rarely does an Alpha Male put on a dull fight.

10. Shooto champ Horiguchi tries to end Japanese slumpHatsu Hioki debuted in the UFC with a tremendous amount of hype as a former Shooto champion and top-ranked featherweight. Although he showed promise, winning his first two bouts, he faltered badly and lost his next three, becoming the latest Japanese import to disappoint in the octagon. Kyogi Horiguchi (11-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is a former Shooto champ at 132 pounds and aims to reverse that trend. Standing in his way is Dustin Pague (11-8 MMA, 1-4 UFC) , who gets a last chance to reverse his fortune after three straight losses.