Near term (today-tonight)... tc Humberto over the wrn Atlantic near 28n77.5w continues to slowly push north-northwest while fairly deep northeast flow up to around 3-5 km affects our region. Best moisture is over the far south and eastern zones (pwats 1.9-2 inches), with low level convergence and a couple of rain bands on the outer parts of Humberto rotating through the southeast parts of the forecast area. Latest radar shows isolated to scattered showers over the marine waters, and narrow bands of showers pushing into northeast FL, generally fading past Highway 301. Best chances of rain today will be for the southeast zones with a forecast of 40-60 percent coastal northeast Florida and 20-40 percent for inland northeast Florida and only 20 percent for southeast where moisture is just enough to support a couple of lone showers by the aftn. Chance of T-storms is fairly low given relatively weak instability with SBCAPE under 2000 j/kg. Max temps today near 90 inland, and mid 80s at the coast due to more cloudiness and shower activity. Winds today will increase to 15-20 mph with a few gusts up to 30 mph, especially for northeast Florida and coastal southeast Georgia. For the time being, appears winds stay just below wind advy criteria but will be monitored. For tonight...we continue to advertise a chance of showers for the coastal counties but as the low level wind field backs, some drier air will filter in and the prospects for showers will diminish for the inland areas of northeast Florida. Lows may dip to near 70 over inland southeast Georgia but rest of the area expected to have lows from 72 to 78 deg.

Short term...Monday through Wednesday...

Low level ridging will continue to sit over southeastern Continental U.S. And Humberto will continue to move further out into the Atlantic, keeping northeasterly winds in place across the area. At the upper levels, a ridge of high pressure will remain off to our west, with a trough axis stretching across the northern Gulf waters, and another ul trough over the northeastern Continental U.S.. relatively light will prevail aloft, but with a northerly component to the winds throughout much of the atmospheric column, we'll see a drier air mass work its way south into the area. Model precipitable water values below 1.5" dig into southeast Georgia and NE Florida Monday night. Expect mostly dry conditions with 20-40% chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms along the coast. Temperatures will peak in the mid 90s Monday and Tuesday, lower 90s on Wednesday. Lows will be mostly in the low 70s.

Long term...Thursday through sun...

Deep layer ridging will slowly push eastward through the end of the work week. By Thursday-Friday, this high pressure to our north may set up a wedge pattern with an air mass from the Appalachian Mountains moving down into S Georgia. Pops will be low through the long term, with 20-40% chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms, again mostly along the coast. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs in the mid-upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

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Aviation...

Periods of MVFR cigs are expected for the tafs through this morning, with lowest chance of MVFR at gnv. A few showers are to be expected for sgj...crg...vqq and jax. Lower chances for jax and ssi...and MVFR vsby possible. Breezy northeast winds at sgj early this morning...but winds will pick up again by mid morning from the northeast at about 15g25kt. Some improvement in clouds expected after about 20z-21z today into this evening but still a threat of MVFR cigs for sgj into Sunday night due to north-northeast flow over the Atlantic waters.

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Marine...

Winds and seas remain very hazardous for small boaters with solid Small Craft Advisory in place. Northeast winds 20-25 kt and some occasional gusts up to 35 kt expected through tonight and early Monday. Winds and seas may decrease a bit on Tuesday-Tuesday night but we see winds increasing again late Wed through Thu as high pressure ridge builds north of the area and winds pick up again to near 20 kt and seas upwards of 5-8 feet. Swells from Humberto should continue to affect area waters at least through late this coming week.

Rip currents: high risk of rip currents expected in the rough surf conditions and surf/breakers of 5-7 ft range along the northeast Florida coast and high surf advisor in effect, with 4-6 ft surf expected along the southeast Georgia coast. Elevated water levels expected along the St Johns River basin/Atlc coast during time of high tide with departures around 1 ft above predicted tide levels but this will continue to remain just below minor flood levels.

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Fire weather...

Borderline high dispersion indices are anticipated this afternoon across inland portions of southeast GA, with more widespread dispersion indices in the 75-85 range expected tomorrow. Moderate north- northeasterly transport winds are forecast both days, but winds will lower on Tuesday. Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds through Monday, then drier air will begin to move in on Tuesday. The drier air and higher winds will not occur at the same time, so no red flag conditions are forecast.

Am...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for waters from Altamaha Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida from 20 to 60 nm- waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida from 20 to 60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Monday for coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach Florida out 20 nm- coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida out 20 nm-coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida out 20 nm.