Month: November 2013

The Housing Market And The World Economy Is Being Held Together With Tape, The Central Bankers Are Manipulating Everything So The People Don’t Realize What Is Going On

A mass shooting took place in a mall in NJ. These types of mass shootings will increase to push the Governments agenda forward. The Government needs to disarm the American people and the only way to do this is to make the American people push for gun control. The mass shootings are also used to train the population for martial law, military style police, listen to the police, do what they say and everything will be ok. The housing market and the world economy is being held together with tape at this point, but the central bankers are continually manipulating everything so the people don’t realize what is going on. http://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2OwE0n-jpA

Don’t let them tell you ‘this is normal for Sept’. The ‘oh-crap’ moment is now in the can. Going forward, “Existing Sales” volume will disappoint on a YoY basis for several quarters. There is no way around it…

Existing Sales is terribly backward looking and you can’t change history no matter how hard certain parties try.

‘House Prices’ have already fallen sharply post-surge and continue to weaken — prices are set at contract but not recorded until “closing” — simply awaiting printing by lagging surveys.

Contrary to ‘New’ Home Sales, Existing Sales are where the Fed’s go-go juice really showed up thanks to the Twist/QE 3, 4 increase in “purchasing power” beginning in Q4 2011 and the new-era “investor” rush to market in mid-2012. This is evident in the demand divergence between the two series. As such, the “post-surge” housing market “demand collapse” will be much more evident in this series than it was by the 27% MoM drop in New Home Sales in July.

In short, over the next few months we will see the two series quickly “converge” — Existing Sales weaken considerably to be more in-line with the weak builder demand — reflecting conditions more akin to the “hangover” period following the sunset of the Homebuyer Tax Credit.

Along with this comes lower YoY Existing and New Sales volume along with down trending MoM house prices as far out as July 2014, at which point house prices have a good shot at being negative YoY as well.

Sept Pending Home Sales Low-lights

1) US Pendings Fell 21.1% MoM on an NSA basis (down more not including last month’s revision), the most on record for any Sept since Sept 2001…that’s a terrible period to comp against.

2) On a YoY basis Pendings were down 4.3% on a daily basis (Sept 2013 had 1 extra business day YoY). And remember, in Sept demand was still being pulled forward due to rates and fear of Gov’t shutdown.

3) Levels of Sept Pendings virtually ensure Oct through April Existing Sales” are lower YoY. A year ago volume outperformed (muted seasonality) in winter & spring, as new-era “investors” all dove in at the same time. This year the market will underperform (heavier than normal seasonality) due to the stimulus “hangover”. This delta will produce meaningful YoY Existing Sales declines especially through April 2014.