September 22, 2016

What does India think?

What does India think? This is a question that those of
us who work on policy issues outside of government are often expected to
answer. A country as big and diverse as India is naturally home to a wide
variety of views. Often, we tend to reflect the positions of our peers, or what
we read and see in the media. It is also easy and tempting to let one’s
personal biases come in the way of any assessment of the mood of the nation.

For this reason, the recently-released public opinion
survey by the Pew Research Center is important. Unlike most surveys, Pew
conducts face-to-face interviews with some 2500 people from across India each
year. This makes their results a much more accurate reflection of Indian public
sentiment than, say, spot polls conducted online or surveys done only in major
metropolitan centres. For example, unlike many others, Pew accurately predicted
Narendra Modi’s landslide electoral victory in 2014.

Quality surveys are important because they help policy
elites in New Delhi and elsewhere escape their little bubbles and transcend
short-term, media-driven narratives. What, then, can we discern from the latest
Pew survey? In my mind, five results are particularly surprising or noteworthy.

First, Prime Minister Modi’s popularity remains very high
at 81%. But what is more unexpected is that a far higher number of Indians
think the state of the Indian economy is good: 80% compared to 74% in 2015 and
64% in 2014. Additionally, far more Indians believe that the country is moving
in the right direction: 65% this year compared to 56% in 2015 and 36% in 2014.
Despite all the justifiable frustrations with the pace of change among many
commentators, the government should be heartened by these findings – although
they should not lead to complacency.

The second surprise concerns the popularity of political
parties and their leaders. Public views of BJP and Congress are generally
favourable. 80% have a favourable view of BJP in contrast to 16% who do not,
while 67% like Congress compared to 29% who do not. But the numbers for the
insurgent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are far less encouraging, with 47% in favour
and 32% against.

The high unfavourability rating for AAP is particularly
surprising given that the majority of Indians have never been governed by the
party, and that it is supposed to represent a breath of fresh air in Indian
politics. Moreover, the public appeal of Arvind Kejriwal has declined sharply
since last year to 50%, compared to 63% for Rahul Gandhi and 81% for Modi. This
suggests there are limitations to AAP’s brand of protest politics.

Third, while the Indian public has a high opinion of
Modi’s handling of most policies – both domestic and foreign – they are
particularly dissatisfied with his handling of Pakistan, with 50% disapproving
of his approach towards that country. Presumably, such dissatisfaction has
increased over the past few months since the Pew poll was conducted, particularly
following the Uri attack. However, some of the dissatisfaction might have been
mitigated by the prime minister’s mention of Balochistan in his Independence
Day speech, and the signal that sends.

Fourth, while public opinion is generally wary of China,
perspectives are sharply divided along partisan lines. For example, 54% of BJP
supporters are concerned about China’s support for Pakistan, compared to just
44% of Congress supporters. Similarly 48% of BJP backers worry about India’s
territorial dispute with China, compared to only 39% of those supporting
Congress. This suggests that forging a national consensus on India’s China
policy could be challenging in the coming years.

Finally, it is noteworthy that Indians seem conflicted
about the country’s global role. The survey reveals that average Indians are
very much in favour of defence spending (63%) and greater involvement in the
international economy (52%), and they believe overwhelmingly that India is
playing a bigger role on the world stage (68%). However, they do not yet
believe that Indian power should be used to “help other countries deal with
their problems” (23%). But perhaps these views – both pride and caution about a
greater international role – are normal for a rising power such as India.