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Does a leadership spill 'clear the air'?

Simon Crean called on a leadership spill, but Kevin Rudd opted not to run.

AAP: Lukas Coch

Simon Crean became the Federal Government's 'air freshener' last Thursday.

"We needed clear air," he said. "We needed to bring these matters to a head."

But will the leadership spill give Labor the clear air it needs to sell its message? Or will the subsequent resignations of competent, senior ministers contribute to its demise?

"There are not many cases where a public fight over leadership entrenches a government," says adjunct professor John Nethercote from the Australian Catholic University.

"Leadership spills (or major ministerial reshuffles) are usually symbols of disillusion and disarray, or a government losing control of itself."

Political analysts say the feud between Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard has things in common with the factional divide between John Gorton and William McMahon in the 1960s and 70s, after the disappearance of Harold Holt.

"The air was far from clear after McMahon took over as prime minister from Gorton," says Australian National University professor John Wanna.

"It was quite divisive and there was a long period of destabilisation before and after. The Coalition was ultimately defeated [after 23 years of conservative rule] by [Gough] Whitlam in 1972.

"The big difference with Rudd is the method of undermining. Normally challengers don't come back again and again, certainly not in an election year.

"So this sort of situation isn't good for a government. Disunity is death."

There have been exceptions: Paul Keating won an "unwinnable" election after wresting the prime ministership from Bob Hawke.

But successful spills are more common in Opposition.

Leaders such as Gough Whitlam and Tony Abbott took control of their parties after winning tight partyroom ballots.

Loss of talent

Last Thursday's aborted leadership coup claimed four senior ministers - and four other office holders - in 24 hours. Parallels are hard to find.

A plane crash in Canberra killed three ministers in 1940 and contributed to the demise of the Menzies government, while nearly 100 years ago several ministers quit the government of Billy Hughes over a disagreement about conscription. It led to the downfall of Labor.