Al-Monitor: U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran is from 2010, experts say

Laura Rozen clears up the cloud of confusion over Ehud Barak’s comments last week implying that a new U.S. intelligence assessment on Iran that shares Israel’s assessment of Iran’s nuclear program had been released:

Several American former officials told Al-Monitor Thursday that they believed what Israeli officials may have been briefed on is not an NIE, but a smaller, more focused report on certain aspects of Iran’s nuclear program.

Non-proliferation analysts speculated that the new U.S. report could focus on one of the categories of continuing research activities listed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in its November 2011 report on Iran.

However, “carrying on scattered research activities does not amount to a full-fledged restart of an integrated weapons program,” Greg Thielmann, a former US intelligence analyst and senior fellow at the Arms Control Association, wrote in an ACA Iran Nuclear Threat Assessment brief (.pdf).