The personal blog of Peter Lee a.k.a. "China Hand"... Life is a comedy to those who think, a tragedy to those who feel, and an open book to those who read. You are welcome to contact China Matters at the address chinamatters --a-- prlee.org or follow me on twitter @chinahand.

Monday, December 09, 2013

Should the US Play Solomon and Split the Senkakus?

I have grown pretty tired of hearing about the
Senkakus.I have a feeling I’m not
alone.

As far as I can see, Taiwan has the strongest claim to the
Senkakus, by geography, geology, history, and propinquity.Japan grabbed the Senkakus in 1895, lost them
in World War II, then got them back from the U.S. Occupation as a
sloppily-executed, legally dubious afterthought.But it’s got ‘em.The PRC, by speaking for Taiwan under the
one-China policy, is in OK shape as a matter of logic and equity, but hampered
by the fact that nobody wants to see big, bad China get a win at Japan’s
expense.

The Senkakus have turned into an American headache.

Japan makes an issue of the Senkakus to goad the PRC and use
the ensuing uproar to justify Japan’s emergence as a full-fledged regional
military power.

The PRC, IMHO, uses the issue to goad Japan and deepen the
wedge between the United States and an increasingly independent Japan, thereby
encouraging the United States to shift away from Japan and towards China in
order to sustain U.S. clout.

So the United States is on a cleft stick as far as the
Senkakus are concerned.

I don’t think the Obama administration, as suggested by
Shisaku’s Michael Cucek, is interested in coming down on Japan’s side and
confirming Japanese sovereignty over the Senkakus at China’s expense.Beyond the unpleasant prospect of having the
PRC really, really mad at us, the PRC will make the United States pay for its
decision, probably by punishing Japan in ways that reveal the limits of
American power to protect it—like the anti-Japanese economic warfare of 2012—and
marginalizes the US in Asia.

My suggestion:the
United States, as the responsible hyperpower always sedulously concerned with
regional peace and stability, should propose that the Senkakus be split between
Japan and the PRC.

There are, to my understanding five uninhabited islands and three
barren rocks.Total eight things.I suggest each side get four things on
opposite sides of a line.That gives the
United States the ability to unambiguously support Japanese sovereignty over
here, and Chinese sovereignty over there. Here's one possibility.

Like that red line? Took me less than two minutes.

Bear in mind that the Japanese government is contemplating a similar 50/50 split in an effort to resolve its endless dispute with Russia over the Northern Islands.

The Japanese would be angry with us, but so would the
Chinese.But it’s better to be hated as
high-handed imperial lawgivers than resented as handwringing bystanders.

As to the immense fishery and energy resources supposedly
contained in the sea surrounding the islands, forget about efficient joint
development.What’s on this side of the
line is yours, on that side mine.Let
each side plunder the resources until the fish are gone, the basins are
exhausted, and there is no reason to pretend to be interested in these
ridiculous rocks.

I think this initiative is not for the ostentatiously
cerebral President Obama.It’s a job for
diplomatic blunderbuss Joe Biden or gaffe-guru John Kerry, maybe pontificating
at some confab at the Center for a New American Security, standing in front of
a big map of the Senkakus and making a sweeping gesture.

Little does he realize he is holding an uncapped marker in
his hand, creating a bold and highly suggestive line splitting the eight islets
and rocks.The assembled politicians,
pundits, and diplomats step back with an involuntary gasp of astonished awe…