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Boulder County seeing average summer, for better or worse

Influence of western wildfires a 'new normal' on Front Range

By Charlie Brennan

Staff Writer

Posted:
08/05/2018 10:00:00 AM MDT

The sun sets over an area partially burned by the Carr Fire as it spreads toward the town of Lewiston near Redding, Calif. That's just one of numerous fires burning across the western United States, creating a frequent haze caused by particulates in the air that are reaching Colorado and the Front Range, also frequently giving Boulder County's sunsets a crimson hue. (Mark Ralston / AFP)

As the dog days take hold, Boulder County's summer stands as average in several ways, and that is both good news and bad news.

The positive news is that, as it relates to temperatures and moisture, statistically, the area has seen nothing too remarkable. Sure it's been hot at times, but not too much more so than usual. And the rain that has fallen has been within a few drops of normal.

However, the crisp mountain air and brilliant sunshine that draw so many to these climes have been muted in recent days by particulates in the smoke that is spreading across the western United States, including the massive Carr Fire in Shasta County, Calif., the sixth largest wildfire in that state's history.

He offered for comparison Labor Day of 2017, which he said was "considerably worse than what we have now."

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But he added, "The trends show that we can expect more of these events" in an era when megafires are more common and the length of the fire season is increasing. "So you could call this the new normal."

Unusually sensitive people were advised to consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion in the middle part of the day.

Gabriele Pfister, an atmospheric chemist for the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, said, "In general, when you talk about the wildfires, we are not being burned down in Boulder or on the Front Range. But if you look the rest of the western U.S., it is just like any of the last years have been shaping up."

She noted that fires have been part of the natural life cycle of the environment since long before humans were here to be imperiled by them.

However, she said, "It is getting hotter and statistically, we have bigger, more intense fires that start sooner, and last later in the year."

As Pfister was speaking, NCAR scientists, along with partners from the University of Colorado and Colorado State University, were conducting flights out of Boise, Idaho, in a study of the particulates in wildfire smoke plumes, and their impact on both air quality, and longer-term climate change.

Wildfires have not menaced Boulder County directly, she noted, and that may be in part because there has been typical rainfall. But a lot of it is also a matter of luck.

"Knock on wood," said Pfister. "And I do have a wooden table that I can knock on."

Even without fires in our backyard, she said, "We need to pay attention. It is not healthy. I notice that it impacts me and my breathing. It's not to be taken lightly."

Boulder meteorologist Matt Kelsch said Boulder has seen 28 90-degree days through the end of July, and the past 30-year average shows that 21 would have been typical, through that date. The area is likely to see 10 more through August and September.

The hottest day so far has been the 98 degrees that was registered on June 28, the only record high set this summer in Boulder. In fact, Boulder came within 1 degree of a record low on July 1, when the low was 46, and again on Tuesday, when the recorded low was 48.

June in Boulder saw 1.82 inches of precipitation, and July produced 1.84 inches, both nearly precisely the average of 1.87 inches for each month.

"In fact," Kelsch said in an email, "the 2018 total through the end of July was 13.78 inches, which is almost exactly the 30-year average (January-July) of 13.69" inches.

The average precipitation for August in Boulder is 1.74 inches.

Kelsch, in his weather blog, said the week ahead shows very hot weather in the west, including western Colorado, average to slightly cooler temperatures on the high plains; the Front Range is likely to be mostly warm and dry, with possibly one or two brief periods of cooler air moving through.

Monday is expected to reach 80 degrees, with no significant precipitation in in the short-term forecast.

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