In North Carolina, where President Obama was starting to open a lead over Republican presidential candidate Romney, the two are now tied according to recent polls, with each candidate’s lead falling within the margin of error. Until the end of the summer, North Carolina was considered a red or red-leaning state, and the fact that Obama was pulling ahead there marked the lowest point for Romney.

But Romney appears to be improving his numbers this week. A nationwide poll of the National Journal, which back on September 21 showed Obama as leading Romney by 50 to 43 percent, now says the two are tied. The average gap between the two candidates in all the current polls is 3.2 percent for Obama, still within the margin of error.

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This means that a decisive performance by Romney in Wednesday night’s first debate with Obama would make a difference in the outcome of the November election.

The debate topic will be domestic policy, where Obama is vulnerable on many different fronts. If Romney will manage to rattle his opponent’s cage a little, he could help his own cause considerably.

The National Journal poll results also reveal an advantage for Romney nationwide in terms of the composition of the likely voters who favor him.

Romney has the support of 55% of White voters. And while he scores poorly among voters ages 18-29, he leads Obama in all the other age groups, including—most crucially—voters age 65 or older. Despite the fear of older voters that vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan will take away their Medicare and Social Security, as the Democrats have been telling them, older Americans surveyed in this poll favor the Romney ticket by 48 to 47 points.

Women like Obama by 7 points more than Romney, while men prefer Romney by 8 points.

The entire Black population of the United States prefers Obama (98%). but will African Americans show up at the polls with the same enthusiasm they showed back in 2008?

To judge by the almost visceral rage some White voters are showing against Obama, we can expect more angry Whites than supportive Blacks come election day.

In the swing states, Obama is still doing better than his rival, but not as he has done a week ago. In Florida his support is down to just 2 points. Obama’s lead in Virginia also hovers around 2 points. But Ohio is probably lost to the Republicans, barring a massive shift, possibly following tonight’s debate.

Yori Yanover has been a working journalist since age 17, before he enlisted and worked for Ba'Machane Nachal. Since then he has worked for Israel Shelanu, the US supplement of Yedioth, JCN18.com, USAJewish.com, Lubavitch News Service, Arutz 7 (as DJ on the high seas), and the Grand Street News. He has published Dancing and Crying, a colorful and intimate portrait of the last two years in the life of the late Lubavitch Rebbe, (in Hebrew), and
two fun books in English: The Cabalist's Daughter: A Novel of Practical Messianic Redemption, and How Would God REALLY Vote.

5 COMMENTS

While the NJ poll has Obama and Romney tied, 8 other polls released since Sunday have Obama ahead.

And Obama does not need NC. Romney does.

Obama has led in the last 12 Virginia polls, the last 15 Ohio polls (no Republican has ever gotten elected without Ohio), the last 7 Florida polls, 12 of the last 13 Colorado polls (the exception being the Republican leaning Rasmussen poll that doesn't call cell phones), the last 8 Wisconsin polls, the last 8 Michigan polls, and every Pennsylvania poll since February.

Charlie — You're stating the obvious, but I'm trying to see if Romney has a path to 270 from his base of 191-193 delegates. The fact is that nationally he is inside the margin of error with Obama, and the same is true for all the swing states (Ohio is no longer considered a swing state, it's been upgraded to leaning-Democrat).

The fact is, if Romney does not score big tonight, he won't be able to fix it, because of early voting. But if he manages to embarrass Obama in the debate (not an easy task) without embarrassing himself (also not easy), he has the electoral foundation for a win.

He can't do it without Florida, though, and if he goes against the Dream Act tonight — he can kiss Florida good bye.

I have to tell you, I don't want Obama to win a second term. I've been vacillating back and forth over it, and while I still don't see myself voting Republican (never have in my life), I feel betrayed by Obama on too many levels to want him to win.

"I'm trying to see if Romney has a path to 270 from his base of 191-193 delegates"

He does, but it is a very narrow path. Only once in the past five Presidential elections has a Republican won a clear electoral college majority, and that was with only 286 EV — the electoral college clearly favors the Democrats.