Lance Finke

Q4 Will Show Just How Stagnant Apple Earnings Really Are [View article]

@richbar - looks like you have fewer and fewer investment options if you are ignoring share buybacks. More specifically, 254 companies within the SP500 have bought back at least 1% of their shares over the past year. This list includes approx. 50 names that have bought back a higher % than AAPL's 5.8%. So by your logic half the broad market 'only' has buybacks going for it.

'Apple fans don't like to talk about market share and prefer to talk about profit share, whatever that is.'

@author - be careful, implying to investors that profit share doesn't matter doesn't sound like the best investment advise. Profits tend to keep companies in business and the brands you describe 'gaining market share' will be out the smartphone business before the market saturates. Smartphones, like every other commodity product will eventually be produced by a handful of companies. I feel fairly certain Apple 'with it's modest profits' will be producing smartphones long after the also-rans disappear from existance in the marketplace.

Don't worry Mike - I don't expect my comment or anyone elses' to ever influence your stance on Apple. I realize you are trying to keep your cost per comment ratio as low as possible. And writing anything positve on Aapl would certaintly reduce your profit share on SA (whatever that is)

Demographics, Manias And The Short Case For Apple Explained [View article]

Demographics, Manias And The Short Case For Apple Explained [View article]

@Richbar - I've given you credit in the past for accurately predicting a slowdown in Net Inc to around $40/sh annually. But once again, why is it so hard to fathom new products/categories that also leverage the iOS ecosystem? Additional earnings drivers will come unless you fully believe Apple is mailing the next 5 years in and calling it a career. History tends to repeat itself and Apple has proven this time and time again.

Apple Would-Be Shorts: Bide Your Time, Apple's Run Will Be Over Soon Enough [View article]

@glenway - with all do respect, the reason Apple's slide in share price occurred solely from the anticipated and subsequent decline in growth on both the top and bottom line. Once over-weighted institutional hedge funds and large investment management firms speculated growth would stall they reduced their sizeable portfolio weights in AAPLstock.which at the time was 67%. By the time Q1 2013 results were released institutional ownership decreased 3% points (or $17.2 billion in market capitalization) and the stock had dropped 14.9%.

To further to put additional downward pressure on the stock - THEY WERE RIGHT as AAPL reported their first quarterly decline in EPS at -.4% on Jan 23 for the Christmas qtr 2013 (first quarterly negative eps decline in over 10 years!). Stock immediately dropped another 12.9% after that report and experienced additional declines as subsequent quarters only produced moderate top line growth of 11.2%, .9%, and 4.2%. While EPS growth was even further depressed with -18.0%, -19.8% and -4.7% YTY declines.

The only thing that will propel shares higher going forward is a reversal in both top and bottom line growth. Fortunately, Apple has popular product refreshes, a significant buyback program in place, subsidies being put in place in new markets (Japan and India - with hopefully more to come), new products categories coming, the China Mobile boost in product sales, and an increasing growing software/services/acce... business line growing at roughly 25%. Incidentally, to put software/service revenue in perspective the revenue generated from this segment is greater than 75% of the companies in the SP500 on a TTM basis. At some point this service revenue becomes an even more material growth driver in overall Apple revenue growth.

Apple Would-Be Shorts: Bide Your Time, Apple's Run Will Be Over Soon Enough [View article]

Really Michael? incensed? You throw these wild opinionated articles on SA several times a week. They have twisted views of what is really happening in marketplace (with your significantly flawed and pretty charts) and you provide absolutely zero fundamental analysis. You appear to make you investment decisions out of 'hope' and 'spite' (because BBBY got their lunch eaten).

I've read every article and every post to your writing - clearly some commenters have crossed the line but far more individuals have accurately challenged your 'opinions'. (you know the joke, everyone has one? right?) Your rebuttals to quality comments cease to exist but you sure do like to fire back at the ones that make it personal.

Have some class, do some more homework (valuations, financial strength, management effectiveness, EV, etc. ) and please do look for better short opportunities - I promise you their of plenty of good ones out there - and Apple definitely is not one of them.

Apple Would-Be Shorts: Bide Your Time, Apple's Run Will Be Over Soon Enough [View article]

@Tom - the following information ties in well with your article....... #of apps and #of downloads don't tell the whole story.

'According to DSP Adfonic, iOS accounted for over 60% of all ad impressions worldwide on mobile devices during the third quarter of this year. Surprisingly, even though it has a much larger worldwide marketshare of mobile platforms, Android only accounted for around 30% of ad impressions.'

I could take the comments from this string namely from @zip, @glenway, @flux, and @chase and make and make a better article then any article written by this author and Michael Blair combined.

Nearly every industry is eventually commoditized but there is always left with one or two dominant players who reap the majority of the profits. Anyone who thinks Apple will not be the primary benefactor in the smartphone, tablet, wearable device, and probably the living room is blinded by the obvious. The main indicators Apple shareholders need to watch are iPhone unit sales (Q/Q% and Y/Y%) and iPad usage data - until these data points start declining I will not worry about about my position.

Meanwhile, going forward Apple can make leaps into any future category by being vertically and horizontally integrated better than any other company on earth. The market clearly wants a new product category and is expressing their impatience. But as an investor I feel Apple's earnings multiple does not reflect the potential for a new product category so I will be patient, hold common shares, and continue buying long-dated calls to capture silly gains once Apple forces the markets hand.

Completely agree - using a LT Growth Rate forecast where only 9 analysts are willing to go on a limb to project future earnings potential is useless. There is a reason the other 40 (approx.) don't even provide this LT Growth Rate.

Labeling Thomson Reuters as a gold standard in anything is overly generous. Their are many conventions used to determine the 'mean' estimate and which estimates are included or excluded. While 2013-2016 fiscal year forecasts may average -5% I can look at the same estimate database and see very impressive forecasted earnings and revenue momentum. For instance;YTY Quarterly Revenue/Share for next 4 quarters forecasted to grow at 5%, 4.4%, 5.4%, and 11.6%

'I would argue that android is way more customizable, way more empowering and that people who have a taste never move back to IOS'

You can argue all you want. However, this statement is absolutely false. Dozens of surveys have concluded far more android users switch to iOS devices vs. android stealing users from the Apple ecosystem. Clearly you like your charts so why don't you attempt to find one that supports your ridiculous argument.