A Scottish court ruled that the suspension of Parliament was unlawful and the uncertainty exacerbated the GBP. The EUR/GBP pair returns to the level of 0.8940 after three consecutive sessions of decline. Returning to the political situation in the UK, one should take into account the forecasts, which set out several worst-case scenarios in the event of the hard version of Brexit at the end of October. Analysts emphasize the high likelihood of riots, rising food prices and shortages of medical supplies. On the other hand, the euro also cannot find support. The German Consumer Price Growth Index is likely to fall by 0.2 percent in August compared with July and grow by 1.4 percent year on year. Additional data indicate a decrease in industrial production in the eurozone in July by 0.4 percent compared with the previous month and by two percent year on year, which is below market expectations.

The sale of the British pound also caused a slight downward correction after recent positive results. Sterling will remain under scrutiny, as political pressure has not subsided, and the issue with Brexit has not been resolved. Now everyone is looking at the events taking place in the political arena of Great Britain during the period of "inaction" of the Parliament, which will begin its work in mid-October, it is expected that the queen will personally deliver a speech. At the same time, we remember that the Bank of England recently ruled out "negative interest rates" and expressed its opinion about the "likelihood of a recession in the country."

After a sharp rally during the previous five trading days and adding almost 150 pips over this period, the AUD/USD pair entered the consolidation phase and fluctuates in a narrow range near 0.6850. Earlier, the National Australia Bank reported that the business confidence index fell to 1 point in August from 4 points in July, and the business conditions index fell to 1 point from 2 points, in such conditions it is difficult for the aussie to continue to press the dollar. In addition, the producer price index in China fell to -0.8% in August year-on-year, which further inhibits growth.

On the other hand, the lack of significant macroeconomic data from the United States did not make it possible for the US dollar index to strengthen and limited losses in the pair. At the moment, the US dollar index shows a small daily gain of 98.38 points. It seems that investors are likely to stand aside and watch, waiting for new events around the trade conflict between the US and China. Earlier today, the White House trade adviser said that "patience is needed regarding trade negotiations between the US and China," but he has not made any statements hinting at progress in the negotiations.

Euro drops to new lows against the pound, but the joy will be short-lived

EUR/GBP fell below a critical level of 0.90. The positive attitude towards the British pound makes the EUR/GBP pair forget about further growth and break through the critical support level of 0.90 in order to move lower to new two-month lows. The euro weakened amid optimism over Brexit and is falling for the third consecutive session in response to an obvious change in sentiment against the British pound. The currency is recovering amid growing optimism, especially after British lawmakers voted to postpone Brexit's deadline and the government did not approve a bill calling for a general election on October 15. Nevertheless, the scenario of a "hard" Brexit without a deal is still under consideration, which means that soon political instability will return to the UK.

What to expect from GBP? The renewed growth momentum is pushing the currency to new heights in the light of recent political events in the UK. Nevertheless, according to forecasts, sterling will remain under pressure, as political uncertainty has not disappeared, and the likelihood of general elections is also high, and this is only a matter of time. On the other hand, the Bank of England remains "silent" in relation to Brexit and its potential consequences. It is worth recalling that at its last meeting, the central bank refused to include the likelihood of a "hard divorce" scenario in its forecasts.

The international broker InstaForex is happy to announce new partnership with Borussia Dortmund. Borussia is a runner-up of Bundesliga 2018-2019 and one of the most renowned World Football clubs. Borussia Dortmund won 8 German Championships, Champions League, Cup Winners' Cup and Intercontinental Cup, 4 German Cups and six German Supercups.

Commenting on the new partnership, Ildar Sharipov, the president and founder of InstaForex said: "At the moment InstaForex is not only a broker but rather an IT company, investing heavily to technology and striving to offer the customers new innovative products on a regular basis. It's well known that IT plays a very significant role in football too, so we're looking not only for a leading team but also for technology enthusiasts in football which are a perfect match to our business philosophy. For these reasons it was a natural choice to align with such a team as Borussia Dortmund. We look forward to working with the club to further develop our respective brands in the markets of Asia and CIS.

Further welcoming of the new partnership is BVB Head of Asia, Suresh Letchmanan who comments: “We are very pleased to have secured Instaforex as a partner of Borussia Dortmund. The partnership with the leading online Forex trading company is a win for all sides - especially the fans in the markets of Asia and CIS who can look forward to many exciting activities with the BVB."

Factory orders from Germany and quarterly national accounts from Switzerland are due on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 1.45 am ET, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs is set to release Swiss GDP data. The economy is forecast to grow 0.2 percent sequentially in the second quarter after expanding 0.6 percent in the first quarter.

EUR/USD: if there is a rebound, it will be short-lived, the decline will continue

After a slight rebound, the EUR/USD pair may resume falling, as the trend is still in a downward direction. Resistance is expected at a psychologically significant level of 1.1000, followed by 1.1027, then 1.050, at which EUR/USD held in mid-August. A potential rebound, if any, will be temporary. Although the situation in the German political arena encourages the euro's growth, Italy has not yet formed a government, and in Germany, the key parties have agreed only on fundamental principles and still need to agree on many details. Moreover, the economic situation in the eurozone remains alarming. Markit purchasing managers' final indices for the manufacturing sector show that prospects remain bleak.

How low can the euro go? This question after the Friday crash worries many traders. Most likely, the market will see a temporary recovery. The chancellor of the ruling CDU party, Angela Merkel, won the local elections in Saxony. In other regions, fears of the victory of extremists from the Alternative German State (AfD) also did not materialize. These results will help stabilize the shaky coalition and strengthen the role of Merkel as a guarantor of stability on the continent. There is another reason for the rebound. US President Donald Trump, although he introduced new duties, recalled that high-level talks should be held at the end of this month in Washington. Until recently, the relative lull in the trade war stimulated the growth of the dollar, now the dollar will experience downward pressure. In addition, the escalation of the trade war means better prospects for German manufacturers, which depend on exports to China.

EUR/USD: Should the Fed soften the blow or refuse to play along with Trump?

The EUR/USD pair is still stuck in the range of 1.1050-1.11150 and so far has not found a reason to exit this side trend.

The day before, former head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley voiced what many probably thought, but did not dare to say out loud.

"If the re-election of Donald Trump in 2020 poses a threat to the US economy, then the Fed should stop being apolitical and indulge the head of the White House," said the former vice president of FOMC.

One of the reasons for the slowdown in US GDP, indeed, is the trade war between Washington and Beijing, which adversely affects investment and exports. Tariffs are a heavy burden on US citizens. The question is, why then should the Fed follow the lead of a person who is pushing the country to the abyss?

According to W. Dudley, attempts by the regulator to protect the US economy from the negative effects of a trade war may not only be ineffective, but will worsen the situation even more.

"What if easing monetary policy would only provoke the US president, allowing him to further escalate the trade conflict and increase the risk of recession?" he said.

D. Trump raises old and introduces new tariffs, putting pressure on the Fed, urging it to cut the interest rate by 1% and to revive the quantitative easing (QE) program. He does all this in order to win the trade war, which harms the US economy. This is the truth that people refuse to listen. However, as you know, he will not get away from it. Another round of escalation of trade tension has led to a decrease in the differential yield of ten- and two-year US government bonds to -5.3 basis points for the first time since March 2007. At the same time, the spread between ten-year and three-month bonds fell to -51.4 basis points. Thus, the chances of a recession in the United States are growing by leaps and bounds, and there is no need to look for the culprit.

Most of all, Trump' statement at the G7 summit on a phone call from the representatives of China regarding the resumption of trade negotiations seems to have surprised the Chinese themselves. So far, Beijing has not given any confirmation of the conversation. The trade war continues, the risks of a slowdown and recession in the US economy increases, and the USD index is growing.

The reasons for the greenback's strengthening primarily lies in the weaknesses of its main competitors. At the same time, Washington's fears of currency interventions with the aim of weakening the US currency are holding back EUR/USD bears from taking action. Neither the deterioration of the political situation in Italy, nor the decrease in German GDP by 0.1% in April-June in quarterly terms led to a breakthrough of support at 1.1050-1.1065 for the EUR/USD pair. It is possible that market participants decided to wait for the release of data on US GDP for the second quarter, as well as the August release on European inflation, which will be released this week.

On July 28, 2019, InstaForex organized a partnership event in Singapore at the world famous Marina Bay Sands Hotel.

The guests took part in a unique educational seminar dedicated to the latest developments of the broker, as well as got acquainted with new opportunities for partnership activities in the framework of cooperation with the company. The meeting was carried out to a high standard. The speakers of the summit were the Top managers of the company. After they delivered their presentations, they encouraged guests to active participation in the discussion of topical issues.

The meeting ended with a visit to one of the main attractions of Singapore – a nature park Gardens by the Bay where guests enjoyed the beauty of exotic nature and musical light show - Garden Rhapsody. InstaForex partners could be easily distinguished by branded rucksacks with the company's logo – one of the pleasant surprises along with other gifts carefully prepared by the company.

After a walk in the park, the summit participants spent the evening in Rise, one of the most luxurious restaurants in Singapore, where they tasted the national cuisine of many countries. At dinner, there was a family atmosphere which made everyone feel like a part of big Instaforex community.

More than 40 people from all corners of Asia came to the meeting in Singapore.

InstaForex thanks every partner who has visited the Singapore summit. We will be pleased to see you at our next events.

Whoever said anything about Donald Trump's tweets, but the White House owner still managed to bring the markets out of balance. High volatility was observed in the USD/JPY pair. In a short time, quotes managed to go back and forth. Demand for the defensive yen is increasing on Tuesday, as it is difficult for investors and traders to believe in the words of the US president, who announced that there was a call from China. Beijing aggressively calls him to the negotiating table. In addition, the facts indicate the opposite. A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said he did not know what Trump was talking about. If the fact of the call is not confirmed and China does not make concessions (which is unlikely), one should not hope for a recovery of USD/JPY.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch calls attempts to raise the dollar in conjunction with the yen an opportunity to sell. According to the forecasts of currency strategists, the pair will stay in the region of 105 until the end of the current quarter, and by the end of the year it will fall to the level of 101.

American statistics now look good, but do not flatter yourself about its invulnerability and impenetrable immunity. The global trends, from which the negative blows, will do their job. Banking analysts estimate the chance of a recession in the United States before the end of this year 1 to 3. At the same time, the BAML analytical model signals that the likelihood of such a scenario has increased to 20%.

The recession in the global economy is becoming increasingly apparent. New statistical data is expected to continue to support fears about the consequences of a trade war, the end and edge of which is not visible. It is worth noting that Trump regularly plays with the emotions of market participants and with China, included. The analyst community believes that Beijing is ready to tolerate and wait for the US presidential election in 2020 in the hope that Trump will not win.

Decrease in the USD/JPY quotes should ensure the Fed rate cut and preservation of soft rhetoric. An additional driver promises to be the stock market. In the second half of the year, the peak on it will finally form, and control will pass to the "bears". According to banking analysts, in the context of a trade war and a global recession, easing the Fed's policy is unlikely to ensure a steady increase in risk appetite

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On Thursday, the British currency jumped sharply up. Such a change of mood was facilitated by the statements of the German Chancellor. According to Angela Merkel, Britain still has time to make a deal with the European Union. These comments were perceived by the market as the willpower of politicians aimed at breaking the impasse of Brexit.

Such a violent reaction of market participants can be understood. Due to difficulties with Brexit, pound positioning is too skewed towards sales. Therefore, a small, or even controversial, positive regarding the possible conclusion of an agreement with Brussels sets sterling in motion.

After an unexpectedly strong increase in the British currency, strategists began to think about the correction of the market.

"There is probably the potential for the development of a correction," wrote Credit Agricole SA.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will soon meet with various EU leaders to discuss the possibility of a deal. Not the fact that everyone will be as friendly as Germany.

Although French President Emmanuel Macron softened the rhetoric after Angela Merkel, there were still notes of disagreement in his comments. Macron opposed the demands of the UK to reconsider the country's exit from the EU, saying that this is "not an option."

Some strategists drew attention to the fact that the French leader, speaking about the prospects for resolving the border issue with Northern Ireland, noted that in 30 days the parties would not be able to agree on a deal that would be fundamentally different from Theresa May's deal. Macron also made clear that a border decision should ensure that Northern Ireland remains in a single market with the European Union.

Pound buyers have revived, but there is no guarantee that a compromise will be found. The chances of London and Brussels to reach a "workable solution" on the Irish miserable border, which should prevent the growth of the pound.

Gold at the crossroads: there are plenty of reasons for a correction, but no less in favor of growth

Gold froze at a crossroads. Apparently, speculators who push prices higher, and consumers who want to buy cheaper metals, decided to take a break.

Since the beginning of this year, gold has risen by almost 19% in price, breaking the psychologically important mark of $1,500 per ounce. The last time this level was observed was in April 2013.

The main reason for the growth of quotes was the fear of investors about the global recession, which forces them to shift capital to safe haven assets. It is assumed that if the concerns of market participants begin to be confirmed, the rally of precious metals will continue.

"Rising prices to a six-year high is primarily due to bonds, and it is extremely important for investors to monitor changes in their yield in order to understand what will be the dynamics," said Oax Hansen of Saxo Bank.

The decrease in bond yields in the world has already led to the fact that sovereign bonds with a total volume of almost $16 trillion give a negative percentage.

The jump in the cost of precious metals was also caused by expectations that the Fed, the ECB and other central banks would stimulate economic growth in various ways. The easing of monetary policy tends to lower interest rates and increase the investment attractiveness of gold.

A sharp rise in prices carries the risks of an equally sharp decline, analysts warn.

"The aggregate gold volume in ETFs is steadily growing and has reached 77.4 million ounces, which is the highest for six years. Previous similar bursts of speculative demand caused a serious correction of quotations," O. Hansen said.

In addition, fears of a global recession may also be exaggerated: now markets are most likely driven by emotions. Recent macroeconomic data for the United States were positive and the reduction of interest rates by the world central bank is aimed at maintaining economic growth.

Reducing tensions in Washington and Beijing's trade relations could also serve as a reason for a short, albeit sharp, price correction.

Another negative point for gold may be the expected decline in demand for jewelry in India due to an increase in import duties in the country from 10% to 12.5%, as well as a change in ETF positions, which will respond to the sale of precious metals in response to a restoration of risk appetite .

In case the Fed comes with a surprise - not to continue to lower the interest rate - a correction in gold prices is also possible.

"We expect the Fed to disappoint the market without lowering interest rates in the coming months, and profit taking will ultimately trigger the end of the gold rally. In the event of a pullback, the $1,350 mark per ounce is likely to become a new level of support," representatives of the Fitch rating agency said.

However, there are plenty of factors in favor of the growth of quotes.

According to Deutsche Bank analysts, the main drivers of gold price growth will be real interest rates, stock risk premium, US dollar, as well as purchases of precious metals by central banks.

According to the forecast of Deutsche Bank, the price of gold will be $1,575 per ounce in the next year and a half, and under certain conditions it can reach $1,700.

"Gold is an extremely profitable investment amid the easing of monetary policy by the leading central banks of the world," said Mark Mebius, founder of the Mobius Capital Partners investment fund.

"The long-term prospect of gold – up, up and only up, because the money supply in the world will grow, grow and grow again. Therefore, I believe that gold should be bought at any price," he said.

Last week, the EUR/USD pair was a step away from updating its annual low and found a local trough at 1.1065.

A decrease in the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan to its lowest level over the past seven months somewhat cooled the outburst of the "bears" in EUR/USD. However, this did not force them to abandon their plans.

The weakness of the European economy, the focus of the European Central Bank (ECB) on easing monetary policy, as well as increasing political risks in the region make the euro currency vulnerable. You should not be surprised then at the increase in the chances of its decline by the end of this month to $1.1. A week ago, the derivatives market estimated the likelihood of such a scenario to be realized at more than 16%, while now these chances are 49%.

Obviously, the policy of American protectionism has a more devastating effect on China and the eurozone than on the United States. This is evidenced by the fact that an industry from the eurozone had plummet into an abyss, and the fall of 0.1% of German GDP in the second quarter. Bloomberg analysts predict a further decline in German purchasing managers' indices in August, which increases the risks of a technical recession in the largest currency bloc economy. The divergence of economic growth between the EU and the US is well traced in the dynamics of such an indicator as the index of economic surprises. This fact does not allow the bulls to sleep peacefully for the euro.

If last year investors still had hope that the eurozone would get on its feet and begin to accelerate, then this year it seems that they will be disappointed. The United States still looks like an island of stability in the ocean of world recession.

The "bearish" factor for the euro is also the deterioration of the political landscape in the EU. In Italy, a split in the ruling coalition allowed the country's deputy prime minister, Matteo Salvini, to initiate a motion of no confidence in the head of government, Giuseppe Conte. Early Parliamentary elections loomed on the horizon, and the flight of investors from the Italian debt market was reflected in the increase in the differential yield of local and German government bonds.

On the contrary, the greenback is doing well. Of course, the USD index rally complicates the life of US exporters and helps reduce corporate profits, but this is an objective process. When rates on government bonds in the United States are higher than in other countries, and the US economy looks better, the dollar, it would seem, is doomed to strengthen.

However, there is a fly in the ointment - US President Donald Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's actions and, as a result, a possible reduction in the rate of federal funds by the end of this year from 2.25% to 1.75%. However, it is unlikely that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole, will want to signal a cut in interest rates by 50 basis points at once in September. As for the minutes of the July meeting, it can show the arguments of dissenters who opposed for the FOMC members to ease monetary policy. It is assumed that this will support the EUR/USD bears. In such conditions, the continuation of the fall of the main currency pair seems quite logical.

The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5,2 percent in July, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - unchanged from the previous month and in line with expectations.

The Australian economy added 41,100 jobs last month, far surpassing expectations for a gain of 14,000 jobs following the increase of 500 jobs in June.

The participation rate was 66.1 percent, exceeding estimates for 66.0 - which would have been unchanged from the previous month.

The results of the contests from InstaForex are summed up and the winners of the five regular stages are determined. Today we are ready to name the winners of the InstaForex Sniper, One Million Option, FX-1 Rally, and Lucky Trader. We salute our champions, welcome ones seeking victory, and wish luck to all participants!

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China's industrial production and retail sales grew at weaker pace in July, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday.

Industrial output growth eased to 4.8 percent in July from 6.3 percent in June. Output was forecast to expand 6 percent.

Likewise, growth in retail sales slowed to 7.6 percent from 9.8 percent a month ago. This was the weakest growth in three months. The expected pace of growth was 8.6 percent.

During January to July period, fixed asset investment logged an annual growth of 5.7 percent compared to 5.8 percent increase in January to June. The rate was forecast to remain unchanged at 5.8 percent.

The bonus amount that you can get in August has been increased to $2,000. This way, we would like to mark the achievements of InstaForex brand ambassador Viswanathan Anand who took 2nd place in super tournament in Paris on Auпust 1, where almost the entire top of the chess world has gathered.

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Australia's business conditions weakened in July reflecting the decrease across most industries, while confidence edged higher, survey data from the National Australia Bank showed Tuesday.

The business conditions index fell 2 points to +2 in July driven by a decline in the employment sub-indicator.

Meanwhile, the business confidence index rose to +4 from +2 a month ago, driven by an improvement across industries. Sentiment remained highest in mining.

The NAB said the business sector has lost significant momentum since early 2018 and forward looking indicators do not point to an improvement in the near term. The lift in confidence following the election appears to have faded with little impact on actual conditions.

According to NAB, both the cut to interest rates and boost to tax rebates is yet to feed into the business sector and that the weakness in the second quarter has persisted into the third quarter.

"With a significant loss of momentum in activity, and inflation indicators remaining weak, the survey points to the need to the need for further stimulus in the economy," Alan Oster, NAB Group chief economist, said.

"Indeed, we expect a further easing in interest rates from the RBA and think that some greater fiscal support will be needed from the government to kickstart growth," Oster added.

Last week, the United States announced the introduction of new tariffs on Chinese imports, in response to which China has allowed its national currency to fall to record lows.

Washington's reaction was not slow. The US administration has officially recognized China as a currency manipulator.

"The goal of China's devaluation of the national currency is to gain an unfair competitive advantage in international trade," the US Treasury said.

China has rejected all the accusations against it.

"This stigma is completely inconsistent with the criteria set by the US Treasury for countries engaged in manipulating the exchange rate. Action from the United States is a one-sided and protectionist act that seriously violates international standards. This will have a serious impact on the global economy," according to a statement from the People's Bank of China.

According to analysts, the decision of the US Ministry of Finance to classify China as currency manipulators could lead to the outbreak of a currency war between the two countries.

"The implications of China's recognition of the currency manipulator could be colossal. The United States may use this decision as a pretext for introducing additional unilateral prohibitive duties. This will lead to the closure of all imports from China, " warns professor of Cornell University Esvar Prasad.

It is assumed that if Donald Trump feels that the US economy will slow down against the backdrop of current events, the possibility of conducting currency interventions with the aim of weakening the dollar will again be on the agenda.

Serious pressure on the greenback is currently being exerted by recent expectations that the Fed will aggressively weaken monetary policy.

The probability of a federal funds rate cut by 25 basis points at the September meeting is now estimated at more than 75%. It is noteworthy that a week ago the chances of an additional round of rate cuts were only 60%.

"The US central bank seems to be held hostage by markets for which the expectation of cheap money is the only argument in favor of growth," Raiffeisenbank analysts said.

"There is another important factor - the pressure from the US president, who desperately needs economic growth to be re-elected for a second term and who has been raining tweets on the Fed for more than a year, calling the leadership of the US central bank incompetent and demanding a weaker dollar to win the trade war with China," said MUFG economist Chris Rupkey.

Citigroup believes that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates in an attempt to smooth out the impact of the global GDP slowdown on the US economy, the monetary policy created by protectionism will not solve the problems.

According to Judy Shelton, who was recently nominated by D. Trump as an official of the FOMC, monetary stimulation is more effective for manipulating currencies than for accelerating economic growth. This is again an argument in favor of the fact that by increasing tariffs on Chinese imports, the owner of the White House provokes an escalation of not only trade, but also currency war.

Apparently, the head of the US administration decided to raise rates at the same time both in discussions with the Federal Reserve and with Beijing.

However, for strong EUR/USD growth, just wanting to weaken the greenback is clearly not enough, and buying the euro should be considered only in the event of breaking resistance at 1.133 and 1.137, while a return to support at 1.1175 and 1.112 will create the prerequisites for opening shorts.