Ryder | 4 local legislative races to watch

It is one of the few Tennessee counties in which most of the legislative delegation is Democratic. The Shelby delegation has three Democrats and two Republicans in the Senate, and 10 Democrats and four Republicans in the House.

Republicans currently hold lopsided majorities in both houses of the Tennessee General Assembly: 28-5 in the Senate and 73-26 in the House. These numbers are not likely to change significantly in November.

Because the Shelby delegation is heavily Democratic, it is often at odds with the heavily Republican majority in Nashville. Our blue island has very few bridges to the majority.

That makes the legislative races important to the future of Shelby County. There are a few key contests to watch.

Rep. Mark White in District 83, Rep. Jim Coley in District 97, and Sen. Brian Kelsey in District 31, all face Democratic newcomers. Voters in all three east Memphis districts tilt Republican, but Democrats hope their August enthusiasm will continue in November and trickle down to the legislative level.

In District 97, Coley, a former government teacher, faces bartender Allan Creasy. The district spans Bartlett and East Memphis.

In largely east Memphis District 83, incumbent Republican White faces Democrat Danielle Schonbaum, manager of continuous improvement at the Greater Memphis Alliance for a Competitive Workforce.

Kelsey, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, faces another newcomer: Democrat Gabby Salinas. Salinas is a medical researcher at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, where she was also treated for cancer as a child.

Republicans have their own pick-up opportunity in District 96. This is the Cordova seat the Democrats won in 2016 when Dwayne Thompson defeated Steve McManus 14,150 to 13,785. Republicans viewed this as an upset and hoped to reverse the situation with a strong candidate.

Scott McCormick, the District 96 Republican nominee, previously served on the Shelby County School Board and the Memphis City Council and as director of the Memphis Botanic Garden and appears to be that strong candidate.

Nationally and locally, Democrats are running cookie-cutter campaigns. They are using good social media presence emphasizing the local connections of their candidates. Their candidates are telling compelling personal stories. They are all running heavily on three issues: gun control, expanded healthcare, and abortion.

Local Republicans are running as incumbents (except for McCormick) and defending the record of the General Assembly on these issues, and emphasizing their support for human trafficking legislation, gun rights, and fiscal responsibility.

Regardless of which issues the candidate emphasizes, it is difficult to reach voters at the state legislative level. Such campaigns do not generate enough in contributions to buy airtime in an expensive media market like Memphis. Instead, the candidates must rely on old-fashioned door-to-door campaigning, along with newer internet-based campaigning. The campaigns require a combination of social media and shoe leather.

Even so, the result is likely to depend very heavily on partisan turnout in November. Because it is harder for voters to get specific information about legislative candidates, party identification plays a bigger role in the legislative choice. Turnout by party will largely determine the results of these races.

If, in these East Memphis district, Republicans turn out the vote, then they should prevail. If Republicans stay at home and Democrats surge, then Shelby County could have an even more lopsided delegation in Nashville.

If that happens, the Shelby delegation is likely to find itself increasingly isolated on their island. The few remaining bridges to the majority would become one lane.

John Ryder is a Memphis attorney, with Harris Shelton, who serves as Chairman of the Republican National Lawyers Association. He previously served as General Counsel to the Republican National Committee. He can be reached at ryderontheriver@gmail.com.