Important Senate primaries on tap today

Voters in Florida and Arizona are heading to the polls today to decide who will do battle for senate seats in each state. In Florida, Marco Rubio’s entrance into the race after dropping out of the presidential contest removed any drama from the Republican primary and improved the party’s chances to retain the seat. The question here is who will be his opponent. Democrats Alan Grayson and Patrick Murphy are the front-runners, with Murphy leading by 8 in a limited number of Florida primary polls. If the polls are accurate, that will be a good thing for Democrats as Grayson’s firebrand persona probably wouldn’t fare as well in the general against Rubio.

Arizona’s Senate race presents a different scenario. The Democratic challenger is known – U.S Congressman Ann Kirkpatrick will be the nominee. It’s the fate of the incumbent that is in doubt. Much has been made of John McCain’s travails with his base. Will he survive to meet Kirkpatrick in the general? Arizona primary polling has been even more scarce, surprisingly, than Florida. The only poll I can find was a Public Policy Polling survey done back in May. That poll put McCain ahead by 13, but his numbers did not instill much confidence.

John McCain has a negative approval rating with Republican primary voters, and is at pretty serious risk of losing nomination for another term. Only 35% of GOP voters approve of the job McCain is doing to 50% who disapprove. He’s in particularly poor standing with conservative voters. Among ‘somewhat conservative’ voters his approval spread is 33/52, and among ‘very conservative’ voters it drops all the way down to 18/67.

McCain is polling at only 39% in the Republican primary field.

My hunch is that McCain’s chances have improved since the poll was taken, but he remains vulnerable to a primary election upset. If McCain does lose, Democrats stand to benefit. Kirkpatrick will have an easier time scoring the takeover against McCain’s main primary opponent, Arizona State Senator Kelli Ward, than against McCain himself.

Both Arizona and Florida are pivotal in the Senate version of The Battle for Capitol Hill. With the balance of power up in the air, Republicans likely must hold both these seats to retain their majority.