Saturday ended up winning $54,yesterday lost $62. Will do it again when there is massive amount of games and see. Will stay away from Sundays moving forward due to lower volume of games and line makers doing a better job. May look in tne NBA as well. Will keep everyone updated.

unless i am misunderstanding you... the oddsmakers (IMHO) have done a really, REALLY good job the last few weeks, the lines seem very tight. i suppose it is debatable and i am certainly not a pro.

Yeah, I don't plan on making that many plays, but it's a decent first filter to use as I try to find a few combinations of filters that will provide around 100 picks over a season and that have performed at or around 60% over multiple seasons.

so you are saying you normally bet 100 games a year? if you can hit that type of percentage with that much coverage you should be able to cherry pick em. it has taken me 4 years to firm up what i believe is the best possible way to a good profit and still have fun... bet flat. 60% is big time. congrats.

2013i used to bet on a rating system that is very common (1*, 2*, 3*) and bet accordingly. on about 675 bets (NBA, NFL, NCAAB, NCAAF) i cleared about $700 on the year.

2014i changed to $50-$100 and just did my best to pick 'the one'. and there were a lot of weeks i didn't have a $100 bet. all sports totaled about 590 bets i cleared about $900.

2015i switched to flat betting (this season is still alive for me thru NBA playoffs) and i've placed 545 bets (and probably 120-150 of those bets are other peoples) and have significantly exceeded my previous years totals.

less bets/more money has worked out for me. i hope the trend continues... and this wasn't an anomaly. and yes, i often wonder... was it money management? am i understanding the market better? did i get lucky? probably a combo of it all.

i am on the timberwolves and KState tonight... no write up today (which is actually my favorite part).

unless i am misunderstanding you... the oddsmakers (IMHO) have done a really, REALLY good job the last few weeks, the lines seem very tight. i suppose it is debatable and i am certainly not a pro.

so you are saying you normally bet 100 games a year? if you can hit that type of percentage with that much coverage you should be able to cherry pick em. it has taken me 4 years to firm up what i believe is the best possible way to a good profit and still have fun... bet flat. 60% is big time. congrats.

2013i used to bet on a rating system that is very common (1*, 2*, 3*) and bet accordingly. on about 675 bets (NBA, NFL, NCAAB, NCAAF) i cleared about $700 on the year.

2014i changed to $50-$100 and just did my best to pick 'the one'. and there were a lot of weeks i didn't have a $100 bet. all sports totaled about 590 bets i cleared about $900.

2015i switched to flat betting (this season is still alive for me thru NBA playoffs) and i've placed 545 bets (and probably 120-150 of those bets are other peoples) and have significantly exceeded my previous years totals.

less bets/more money has worked out for me. i hope the trend continues... and this wasn't an anomaly. and yes, i often wonder... was it money management? am i understanding the market better? did i get lucky? probably a combo of it all.

i am on the timberwolves and KState tonight... no write up today (which is actually my favorite part).

Less games line makers have more time to research and make tougher lines, since most college teams play on Saturday, line makes don't have the same amout of time to make the lines. For college bball. Old bookie told me that.

Less games line makers have more time to research and make tougher lines, since most college teams play on Saturday, line makes don't have the same amout of time to make the lines. For college bball. Old bookie told me that.

Or... The later in the season the more data they have and single games have more significance...

Matter of fact, oddsmakers look at kenpom (think outsourcing) because it saves a lot of time - this is a fact, not a guess--I know this.

Kenpom is so good that some books use that as their base, and then make adjustments from there (current form, injuries, amount of prep time for the teams, etc.). The better the outsourced numbers get the easier it is for the oddsmakers adjust for the factors that we (I) use so much... I wish Pomeroy's numbers were not so easy to find and cheap (thanks userpick) as this would force the oddsmakers to work harder forcing and spend more time on the numbers, and less time on the factors I mentioned above...

Last night as an example, few years ago, the Cavs would have been an automatic play for me... James plays 37:30, Love 37:39, Thompson 35:57 and Smith 39:02 vs Clips in the first of a back-to-back off a break; and, the first three did not come off the court for good until there was just 2:39 remaining. Fatigue was going to be a factor--no doubt. But was that figured into the line vs the Pistons last night? I kind of thought so--I was wrong, they lost by 8 as a 9 point fav.

It is changing and I am trying to adapt... I am trying to act more like the book. Oddsmakers capp the number... bettors capp the game.

so you are saying you normally bet 100 games a year? if you can hit that type of percentage with that much coverage you should be able to cherry pick em. it has taken me 4 years to firm up what i believe is the best possible way to a good profit and still have fun... bet flat. 60% is big time. congrats.

Ha! No, I haven't found those trends yet. That is my off season homework, and the numbers are evolving. I've found a few that look promising and that might fit that description, but I have a bit more digging and testing to do before putting money on it. For now I stick pretty much with NCAAF. I hope to expand to other sports, but I haven't made time to build out the spreadsheets yet. Last season, I went 94-64-3 for 57%. If you ignore my early season 1/2 unit garbage plays while I waited on good data to develop, those numbers become 72-42-2 for 63% on my picks. Tailing a few of you gurus probably inched that number up a bit. We probably have different ways of making our picks, but it looks like our learning curves have been similar.

2011 - First season, no clue, but stuck mostly with SEC games, watched a ton of it, and got lucky enough to win despite not know anything about bankroll management. Bets were all over the place, from very small up to 100% of bankroll. Took out all of the money at the end of the season for other uses.

2012 - Same approach as 2011 but blew my bankroll because I wasn't lucky enough that season to overcome non-existent bankroll management. Again, bets were all over the place, from very small up to 100% of bankroll, until I lost one of those 100% of bankroll plays. Quit when I blew my bankroll mid-season.

2013 - Started reading this thread, learned a bit about bankroll management, and started playing with spreadsheets. Mostly flat betting, kept each play below 10% of bankroll, and made a decent ROI on beginning bankroll. Spent a lot of time looking for trends hitting 100% with 10 to 20 occurrences. At end of season, left in original bankroll amount and took out all winnings.

2014 - Made some spreadsheet improvements to save time and run more "what if" scenarios. Stuck with mostly flat betting and kept each play below 10% of bankroll, and made a decent ROI on beginning bankroll. Started shifting focus away from smaller 100% trends to trends with larger sample sizes. At end of season, left in original bankroll amount and took out all winnings.

2015 - More improvements to spreadsheets to save time and run even more "what if" scenarios. Stuck mostly with flat betting and kept each play below 10% of bankroll, and made a nice ROI on beginning bankroll. At end of season, left all of it in bankroll for next season. I want to see if I can grow the bankroll enough so that making a 2x, 3x, or 6x return over a few months will turn into a meaningful amount.

This year, I'm doing some off-season homework now that I have data from the better part of three seasons. I'm testing new filters, discarding old ones, looking for nice trends that have held up over multiple seasons and trying to decide how to best strike a balance between trend success rate versus data sample size (and feeling like I need a class in statistics). For now, I'm leaning toward looking primarily for trends with at least 100 occurrences hitting at or very near 60%, but I also want to see if I can spot a few smaller super-trends that hit at closer to 70% - 80% with at least 50 occurrences (if they hold a fairly tight pattern from week to week).

Kenpom is so good that some books use that as their base, and then make adjustments from there (current form, injuries, amount of prep time for the teams, etc.). The better the outsourced numbers get the easier it is for the oddsmakers adjust for the factors that we (I) use so much... I wish Pomeroy's numbers were not so easy to find and cheap (thanks userpick) as this would force the oddsmakers to work harder forcing and spend more time on the numbers, and less time on the factors I mentioned above...

Thanks for sharing the Kenpom stuff. I just looked that up, and it looks like a GREAT data source to use for spreadsheet data-mining. Maybe I can start that learning curve next season.

Ha! No, I haven't found those trends yet. That is my off season homework, and the numbers are evolving. I've found a few that look promising and that might fit that description, but I have a bit more digging and testing to do before putting money on it. For now I stick pretty much with NCAAF. I hope to expand to other sports, but I haven't made time to build out the spreadsheets yet. Last season, I went 94-64-3 for 57%. If you ignore my early season 1/2 unit garbage plays while I waited on good data to develop, those numbers become 72-42-2 for 63% on my picks. Tailing a few of you gurus probably inched that number up a bit. We probably have different ways of making our picks, but it looks like our learning curves have been similar.

2011 - First season, no clue, but stuck mostly with SEC games, watched a ton of it, and got lucky enough to win despite not know anything about bankroll management. Bets were all over the place, from very small up to 100% of bankroll. Took out all of the money at the end of the season for other uses.

2012 - Same approach as 2011 but blew my bankroll because I wasn't lucky enough that season to overcome non-existent bankroll management. Again, bets were all over the place, from very small up to 100% of bankroll, until I lost one of those 100% of bankroll plays. Quit when I blew my bankroll mid-season.

2013 - Started reading this thread, learned a bit about bankroll management, and started playing with spreadsheets. Mostly flat betting, kept each play below 10% of bankroll, and made a decent ROI on beginning bankroll. Spent a lot of time looking for trends hitting 100% with 10 to 20 occurrences. At end of season, left in original bankroll amount and took out all winnings.

2014 - Made some spreadsheet improvements to save time and run more "what if" scenarios. Stuck with mostly flat betting and kept each play below 10% of bankroll, and made a decent ROI on beginning bankroll. Started shifting focus away from smaller 100% trends to trends with larger sample sizes. At end of season, left in original bankroll amount and took out all winnings.

2015 - More improvements to spreadsheets to save time and run even more "what if" scenarios. Stuck mostly with flat betting and kept each play below 10% of bankroll, and made a nice ROI on beginning bankroll. At end of season, left all of it in bankroll for next season. I want to see if I can grow the bankroll enough so that making a 2x, 3x, or 6x return over a few months will turn into a meaningful amount.

This year, I'm doing some off-season homework now that I have data from the better part of three seasons. I'm testing new filters, discarding old ones, looking for nice trends that have held up over multiple seasons and trying to decide how to best strike a balance between trend success rate versus data sample size (and feeling like I need a class in statistics). For now, I'm leaning toward looking primarily for trends with at least 100 occurrences hitting at or very near 60%, but I also want to see if I can spot a few smaller super-trends that hit at closer to 70% - 80% with at least 50 occurrences (if they hold a fairly tight pattern from week to week).

interesting stuff... my problem with trends by the time it is established and reliable, odds makers move and adjust. cracks me up when i see stats people post... so&so team is 15-2 ATS when scoring 80 or more in the previous game but losing by 7 points or more. if the effort to dig those numbers where put into a combination of the marketplace, situational factors, techinical aspects and reading players twitter feeds--it would pay off much better--in my opinion, of course.

you and i have one thing in common for sure... we keep up with our results!

KenPom is awesome. Gotyacovered does a great job of finding mismatches on KenPom. I enjoy your write ups

the funny part about kenpom... i've used it religiously for quite a while and never clicked on the subscribe button b/c i assumed it would be pricey... one day UP sends me a screen shot... i ask him where he got it... kenpom. he had a subscription... it was only $20/year

its fun, i truly enjoy it... and it beats the hell out of gambling on stocks

just like everything else... if you want to be successful--it takes the most priceless element of our lives--time.

first things first... they have a coach... i like avery johnson, i have a coach envy.

they have won (as an underdog) vs clemson, notre dame, wichita st, lsu and florida. wildcats are playing sans poythres(sp?) and willis so the depth is not there... on top of that ulis and murray played (a total of) 87 mins vs aggies and they are playing their 3rd game in 6 days... does that sound like a team that is going to go out and beat a grinding, well coached team by 14 points? doesnt to me.

need some more? you have the two slowest tempo'd teams in the SEC (13th & 14th via kenpom) so you are going to see a grinder... i dont think you will see a double digit lead the whole game... you have the #47 and #29 defenses in the country. if they are going to give you 10% of the points they expect to be scored... take em. i have a +13.5 ticket in pocket. this is also one of those settings in which the under makes so much sense and is so obvious, i may bet the over.

lookin' at the hogs... name the most desperate team in the SEC: LSU. if we were at LSU, its an auto fade--but we arent. they beat us at home by two and we had 24 fouls (yah that is a twenty four) resulting in sending them to the line over 30 times. trey thompson fouled out at 19th min mark, miles played 8 mins with 4 fouls and durham had 4 fouls for at least 20 mins...

so you have a young, desperate team, on the road, on the bubble, doesnt play good def, runs the ball (#1 in tempo) cant shoot from the FT line (10th in conf), cant shoot the tre... you also have the 10th and 11th teams in conf on defensive efficiency... and the 3rd and 6th team in offensive efficiency.

i love the hogs -2 in this situation, problem is, i am seeing -4 on my book.

i also, LOVE the over in this situation, i could hit with 3-4 mins to play. hogs will put up 85-90 and the young tigers will be right on their tail.

i have the over ticket in pocket... holding out for the side to get better--it may not.

first things first... they have a coach... i like avery johnson, i have a coach envy.

they have won (as an underdog) vs clemson, notre dame, wichita st, lsu and florida. wildcats are playing sans poythres(sp?) and willis so the depth is not there... on top of that ulis and murray played (a total of) 87 mins vs aggies and they are playing their 3rd game in 6 days... does that sound like a team that is going to go out and beat a grinding, well coached team by 14 points? doesnt to me.

need some more? you have the two slowest tempo'd teams in the SEC (13th & 14th via kenpom) so you are going to see a grinder... i dont think you will see a double digit lead the whole game... you have the #47 and #29 defenses in the country. if they are going to give you 10% of the points they expect to be scored... take em. i have a +13.5 ticket in pocket. this is also one of those settings in which the under makes so much sense and is so obvious, i may bet the over.

lookin' at the hogs... name the most desperate team in the SEC: LSU. if we were at LSU, its an auto fade--but we arent. they beat us at home by two and we had 24 fouls (yah that is a twenty four) resulting in sending them to the line over 30 times. trey thompson fouled out at 19th min mark, miles played 8 mins with 4 fouls and durham had 4 fouls for at least 20 mins...

so you have a young, desperate team, on the road, on the bubble, doesnt play good def, runs the ball (#1 in tempo) cant shoot from the FT line (10th in conf), cant shoot the tre... you also have the 10th and 11th teams in conf on defensive efficiency... and the 3rd and 6th team in offensive efficiency.

i love the hogs -2 in this situation, problem is, i am seeing -4 on my book.

i also, LOVE the over in this situation, i could hit with 3-4 mins to play. hogs will put up 85-90 and the young tigers will be right on their tail.

i have the over ticket in pocket... holding out for the side to get better--it may not.

welp, not a great night. i really nailed that Bama game... like ive said before, the more obvious a bet is... go the other way.

zona hasn't been on the road since 2/6 and have had an entire week off... might see a slow start getting the home crowd involved (?) then wildcats will be suckin' that thin air in the 2nd half. Last season buffs lost by 20+ so there is a revenge aspect.

Kenpom reveals colorado gets to the line more and 3pt% and frequency is higher. Colorado is also #1 off rebounding team (note not in conf-in nation).

Arizona is in a tough schedule spot, as noted above, but also bc they have the Utes Saturday.

In short, you have a very experienced team with some tactical and scheduling advantages and lookin' to avenge that 20+ point defeat in this game last year. I think Colorado is a live dog.

USC has dropped 3 outta 4... You have to go back a month to find a road win, and that was against a rival--before that the only other win (on the road) was Washington St 1/28. They follow this game up with the Utes (on the road) Sunday. USC is young and on the road playing a team that has #1 turnover percentage, played a MUCH tougher schedule, beaten Oregon, Cal and Utah (better teams that USC) and playing their final two home games (playing UCLA Saturday) so should be a max effort from the seniors. Think we gotta (another) live dog here... Stanford ticket in pocket.

late afternoon add:

usually dont get to look at the card this late in the day, but i did today... maybe its a good omen.

lookin' at providence...

there's some strange line movement going on with this one. they are both ranked back to back in 4 offensive categories and within 2 on 3 others; and ranked within 2 on 3 defensive categories... offensive eff they are 2-3 and def eff they are 2-3. kenpom grades them out very even... providence has dropped 4 games since 2/4--one in double OT. BUT, i dont think this is a skid, but have beaten a pretty good slate of teams on the road (nova, butler, georgetown, creighton). Seton hall beat them already this year but prov shot 30% from the field, 20% from the arch and was 23-31` from the charity stripe... the pirates shot 48%, 23% and went 20-24 from the line. providence spotted them 10 after the first half.

providence has had a tougher conf schedule 58th compared to seton hall's 67th rank. providence has a leg up on them (been there, done that) so there is more pressure on the pirates AND they have xavier saturday (adds to the pressure tonight).

if nothing else... both of em need it... so you have to assume its gonna be a tight game... gimmie the 5.

both of em need it... so you have to assume its gonna be a tight game.

The next couple of weeks ought to liven this thread up a little. I didn pretty good over the conference tourneys. It seems though when I start posting I start losing. I also wait till last second usually to lock in wagers.

“It’s every kid’s dream from Ohio to go to Ohio State, play at the Schottenstein and beat them on their home court. You ask anyone growing up, most of the time they’re Ohio State fans for the most part. They don’t get recruited by Ohio State. Guys take that as a chip on their shoulder and if they get to go there and get an opportunity to play, it’s definitely an added incentive to your mindset.”

needless to say... the zips are pumped. they have 10 players on the roster from ohio... and toss in the fact that the buckeyes cant hit a free throw if their life depended on it... 280 in the nation... and i am pulling the trigger at +5.

“It’s every kid’s dream from Ohio to go to Ohio State, play at the Schottenstein and beat them on their home court. You ask anyone growing up, most of the time they’re Ohio State fans for the most part. They don’t get recruited by Ohio State. Guys take that as a chip on their shoulder and if they get to go there and get an opportunity to play, it’s definitely an added incentive to your mindset.”

needless to say... the zips are pumped. they have 10 players on the roster from ohio... and toss in the fact that the buckeyes cant hit a free throw if their life depended on it... 280 in the nation... and i am pulling the trigger at +5.

The Zips shoot 8-12 from the line in regulation, missing five more FT's in OT AND get zero points in five minutes (OT) and only scored 1 point. 💩

USC has exceeded expectations all year, no doubt. they will push it... #19 in the nation in getting shots off 15.4 seconds into the clock (kenpom) and this style will not fit well against a team that grinds. providence defense is #262 (kenpom) in the time it takes to find a shot. providence WILL slow it down with ball pressure on the perimeter in man and zone. should lead to USC taking bad shots while trying to push it... not a good thing. thats enough for my financial convictions, but need more? not one player for southern cal has a tourney win on any level and has 2 soph and 1 freshman starting. i have a -2 ticket in pocket looking to bounce back after that hot mess of a "basketball" game last night.

will be as close to a home crowd as your gonna get in the tourney... CS Bakersfield is a team just happy to be there and as of late - on the road against opponents far lesser than this (-35 at Saint Marys, -16 at Arizona State) they dont have size the reg season competition to prepare them for the sooners. -14.5 in pocket.

i dont want to even talk about last night... trojans had no idea what they were doing and with :21 sec left - no way it should have been a 1 possession game in favor of USC.... AND providence was losing by 1

I was 10-3 for the tournament until the UK loss and now I am likely going to lose the UALR game barring a huge comeback for a back door cover. Thinking about taking Utah tonight vs gonzaga but I like Gonzaga and want to root for them so i think I'll pass.