Jerry Hayes' BlogThe personal blog of Jerry Hayes, former Conservative MP and practicing barristerhttp://jerryhayes.co.uk/
The peculiar case of the Mogg in the night. And why Tory party leadership beauty parades are like Love Island for old people. They all get fucked<p>I know this is the silly season and I enjoy the manufactured stories about skate boarding ferrets, trampolining squirrels and Diane Abbott having a functioning brain rather than a bowl of custard as much as anybody. The Amish Wing of the Tories nowadays avoid the grouse moors and prefer bespoke baby seal clubbing holidays in Nova Scotia. Corbynistas are in a bit of a dilemma though. Normally they would be off to the socialist paradise of Venezuela, but sadly this gloriously successful country has been systematically undermined by Imperialist American running dogs, forcing its benign government to arrest the traitors, spies and saboteurs that make up the press, judiciary and any political opposition.</p>
<p>So apart from the Trump administration making May’s government look strong and stable and the prospect of a world war triggered by two madman with bad hair there isn&#8217;t a lot to write about. Yet there is something bizarre occupying tiny Tory minds. The phenomenon that has become Jacob Rees Mogg. The peculiar case of the Mogg in the night. Now Moggy is a decent old cove and a genuine, rather than manufactured eccentric, unlike Despicable Me impersonator Bozo. Mind you, if someone was brave enough to crack open their sperm banks in 50 years time they would be disappointed. The the tanks would have run dry. These guys don&#8217;t come fecund best. Moggy in the sanctity of a catholic marriage and Bozo like an alley cat on viagra. If the the Tory bible, Conservative Home, is to be believed (it&#8217;s more Old Testament than New filled with lots of old smite) the Bozo joke is wearing thin and they seem to prefer the cut of young Moggy’s jib. Most sentient folk would scream with hysterical laughter at the thought of a Mogg premiership, but remember we are talking about the Conservative Party many of whom don&#8217;t always take their medication and once, when in a floridly Psychotic state, actively considered making Andrea Loathesome their leader.</p>
<p>I haven&#8217;t a clue who will be the next Tory leader. But it will be sooner rather than later. This is the most incompetent government I have ever had the misfortune to witness. At a time when we should be in concessionary mode with the EU, Madame is sending edicts from the top of some Swiss mountain about hardening our position. They just haven&#8217;t got a clue. And the right wing press cheer her on by calling any of us who commit the heresy of not saying that Brexit will bring us a glorious future traitors. Someone pray for us.</p>
<p>I’m probably wrong but I suspect that Madame will be dissuaded from soldiering on until Armageddon in 2019 by her husband Philip. It will then be too late as we would have been cast into the seventh circle of hell by Barnier and his gang of cheese eating surrender monkeys.</p>
<p>The Tory party conference will be a jittery affair. No great cheers for Madame who will be treated with the respect one gives to a family pet which will have to be put down but nobody has the courage to decide precisely when. It will be dominated by the leadership hopefuls beauty parade. A bit like Love Island for old people. Where everyone gets fucked</p>Wed, 09 Aug 2017 08:48:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/08/09/the-peculiar-case-of-the-mogg-in-the-night-and-why-tory-party-leadership-beauty-parades-are-like-love-island-for-old-people-they-all-get-fucked
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/08/09/the-peculiar-case-of-the-mogg-in-the-night-and-why-tory-party-leadership-beauty-parades-are-like-love-island-for-old-people-they-all-get-fuckedPolitics has become a Spectator sport. May has given us a government of all the talons<p>Politics has become a Spectator sport. A balmy summer’s evening with barmy politicians hoovering up large quantities of acceptable bubbly, spitting venom and bile. There was enough malice aforethought to make it a murder scene. Except that in politics you can die a thousand deaths. What doesn&#8217;t kill you makes you stranger.</p>
<p>At this stage I would usually write, ‘if only I was a fly on the wall….’ But I didn&#8217;t need to be. Every wonderful, excruciating and joyously embarrassing detail has been lovingly salacioused into the press. Of course, there were cameos from the arachnidian Priti Patel (God, that woman scares me) and other minor players like Loathesome, Moggy and a few Westminster Disneyland delusionists who honestly believe that one day they will be Prime Minister. Even Madame, like Banquo’s ghost, briefly ectoplasmed an appearance. But the poor thing has a horror of meeting people who are not police and fireman and a suffers from a crippling phobia of journalists. I am told that she was devastated and shed a tear. But only a small one. Not to worry though, she is off on a walking holiday with Philip. What could possibly go wrong?</p>
<p>But all eyes were on the two feuding families the Johnsons and the Davis mob. It would have been like watching that menacing part of Prokofiev’s ballet Romeo and Juliet when the Capulets and the Montagues strut their stuff. But that&#8217;s probably too dignified. More like the rival street gangs the Sharks and the Jets.</p>
<p>My old chum David Davis is the master of the wind up and exudes a genuine charm that Johnson merely fabricates. He know just the right scab to pick and the put down that will send Bozo into a frenzied sulk. Firstly, Davis charmed and kissed sister Rachel. Boasting that he is wooing her back into the Conservative fold. Then he taunts that our Foreign Secretary is a failure. Bozo’s mob then threaten to ‘kick him in the bollocks’. It was all wonderfully grown up. Herogram for Tim Shipman for reporting it all.</p>
<p>Yet it has been a weird week. Not unlike those balloon debates we used to have at school. You had to give a reasoned debate about whom you will chuck out. May has gone but is still clinging onto the the basket with her finger tips. But at the moment it is Hammond whooshing through the air. There has been a concerted and successful effort to smear him. Firstly, the cabinet leak, from more than one source, about his ‘sexist’ remark that driving a train is so easy even women could do it. This shows a terrible lack of judgement. Would you feel comfortable with Patel, Loathesome or Greening driving a packed commuter train? I’d feel safer if Richard Hammond were at the controls.</p>
<p>And then there is the ‘let&#8217;s end austerity and make ourselves popular with public sector workers by chucking them some dosh,’ brigade which is apparently let by my cousin (I doubt whether she realises it) Justin Greening. This is quite bonkers. Have they all forgotten the wage inflation of the sixties and seventies that made us the Sick Man of Europe? Apparently so. And they do so at their peril. So now it is Hammond who is the dead man walking. He is the one oozing common sense. Bizarre.</p>
<p>But the Bozo star appears to be on the wane. Judging by Fraser Nelson’s last piece, the Speccie (or rather the splendid Andrew Neil who has an attic full of Johnsonian broken promises) has taken against him. The gist was that the shagathon that has added to the gaity of political life could become a serious turn off for voters. I am inclined to agree.</p>
<p>Many years ago when I was writing for Punch we had a front page predicting that Davis would one day lead the Conservative party. We were about twenty years out of date. Oh, and have you noticed his uncanny resemblance between Davis and Martin Shaw of the Professionals and Judge Deed?</p>
<p>May is now at her most vulnerable. MP’s are away. Mobiles will be throbbing. She has created a government of all the talons.</p>Sun, 16 Jul 2017 08:41:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/07/16/politics-has-become-a-spectator-sport-may-has-given-us-a-government-of-all-the-talons
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/07/16/politics-has-become-a-spectator-sport-may-has-given-us-a-government-of-all-the-talonsOur West End productions. The Tories Sunset Boulevard meets Springtime with Brexit. Labour Sweeny Todd with McDonnell as the barber and Abbott making the pies <p>If I was Lloyd Webber I would bring back Sunset Boulevard for a brief West End run. And if I was the government chief whip I would require that every Tory MP went to see it provided they didn&#8217;t appear in front of the cameras and say that ‘there are lessons to be learned.’ Because there are.</p>
<p>I am not suggesting that May has just buried her pet monkey (Bozo is still alive after all), shot her screenwriter lover and is just about to be arrested for his murder. But there are resonances with Norma Desmond, once a Hollywood silent screen goddess whose career was destroyed when the public first heard her voice rather than be bewitched by the flash of her eyes and seduced by the warmth of her smile. Well, alright, then let&#8217;s skip the smile bit. Norma was delusional and believed that a return to the silver screen was inevitable. Everyone knew that she was doomed but when she went to visit her old studio she was shown nothing but embarrassed deference for the star that she once was. Nobody had the heart to tell her the truth.</p>
<p>May has murdered the Conservative party. The brand has been trashed and nobody has a clue what it stands for. And the police in the form of the Cabinet are on their way. Only the most devoted and worshipping fans really believed that Miss Desmond would really make a comeback and and transport them back into a sepia past that could never return. And when asked about a comeback she regally hissed, ‘comeback? I have never been away.’</p>
<p>There are a number of headlines that politicians dread. ‘Stricken, dead in the water, fight back, re launch.’ Well, we have had all of these and this morning’s offering is that she is ‘going to be bold’. Now that should send a shiver down your spine. The right wing press lauded her Titanic manifesto as bold. Next we will hear that she is spending the the recess walking in the Welsh hills with Philip. Now that should scare the shit out of everybody.</p>
<p>You know things are bad when Andrea Loathesome, who is being tutored how to walk talk and breathe all at the same time (it&#8217;s not going well) demanded that she be either Home or Foreign Secretary. Normally, this would have people wetting themselves with derision at Number 10 rather than sitting up and listening. But that’s just a comedy side show. The real Broadway production will be the tragi comic musical Springtime with Brexit, broadly based on the Producers where a cynical impresario sets out to put together the most awful, bad taste and unworkable show designed to fail.</p>
<p>But you know things are really bad when professional psychopath and architect of the Brexit win, Dominic Cummings, admits that he may have made a terrible mistake. You don&#8217;t say. And you can&#8217;t run a negotiation when all your your negotiators are singing from different hymn sheets. The Tories have got to act quickly. It&#8217;s careless to wreck your party but unforgivable to wreck your country. Sadly, the Tories are pretty gutless. If May really wants to be bold she should announce her resignation until a new leader if found before the party conference. Then our country might just have a chance of escaping economic oblivion.</p>
<p>But Labour is not much better. They may be bad butchers but they have a terrible history of Stalinist purges. Decent moderate MPs will be deselected within a few months. They know it, but just don&#8217;t want to believe it. Somehow it will all get better. No it bloody won&#8217;t. Unless you guys form a new party Labour is dead as a movement rooted in Parliamentary democracy. And that is bloody scary.</p>
<p>So if you think the Tories have a resonance with Sunset Boulevard then Labour is very much akin to Sweeney Todd. John McDonnell is cutting the throats of those in the barber’s chair and Diane Abbott is downstairs making the pies.</p>
<p>God help us all. Politicians wake up.</p>Sat, 08 Jul 2017 09:03:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/07/08/our-west-end-productions-the-tories-sunset-boulevard-meets-springtime-with-brexit-labour-sweeny-todd-with-mcdonnell-as-the-barber-and-abbott-making-the-pies
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/07/08/our-west-end-productions-the-tories-sunset-boulevard-meets-springtime-with-brexit-labour-sweeny-todd-with-mcdonnell-as-the-barber-and-abbott-making-the-piesStop all this hypocritical crap about grubby and shameful deals. Elections are about bribes and deals. And I think I've seen the future. He's called Gavin<p>Oh, can&#8217;t we all grow up a bit over the <span class="caps">DUP</span> deal? They may be a fairly ghastly bunch, but like the leaders of Scotland and Wales they want to screw as much money out of the government as they can for their own patch. They just have the opportunity. If you’ve got it flaunt it. And if you flaunt it abuse it. Even Gerry Adams had to admit that it was good news that £1bn is on its way to Ulster. And we might just get Stormont and power sharing back on track. It is a condition of payment. Who is daft enough to block that? As Claud Cockburn used to say, there is nothing more effective than a cash bribe.</p>
<p>I spent three happy years in Northern Ireland as a bag carrier in Paddy Mayhew’s team. The truth is we have been bribing them for years. They have a seriously good education system, public housing which is built to a far better specification than over here and if a medium sized town wanted a leisure centre in the nineties, they’d get it. It was one of the price tags of peace. I always got on well with the Ulster Unionists and actually took a member of the <span class="caps">DUP</span> round the Vatican. I even have the odd drink with Ian Paisley junior. But as a culture they are a little odd. But so is the Province. Last year I popped over to appear on Stephen Nolan’s television show. As I was sitting alone in my dressing room bored out of my skull I thought I’d pop into the green room for a drink and have a banter with some of the other guests. Firstly, I’d forgotten that the green rooms over there are dry, which was a terrible shock to the system. Secondly, there was a segment about a comedy play mildly taking the piss out of the bible that a <span class="caps">DUP</span> council had tried to ban. Not that they’d taken the time or trouble to go and see it. From what I’d heard it was all pretty tame stuff with reworked jokes like Moses coming down with the 10 commandments he had negotiated with God and saying the bad news was that adultery was still in. Gentle Two Ronnies stuff. So in I strolled in and sidled up to a kindly old boy. ‘What are you here for?’ ‘That play.’ ‘Can&#8217;t see what the fuss is all about.’ ‘So you think adultery is hilarious do you?’ Needless, to say I slagged him off to a supportive audience. The next morning I was recognised at the airport. To a man and a woman (there must have been about 20 of them) they said how nice it was to see me on Nolan, but how much they disagreed with me over the play. It&#8217;s a very different place.</p>
<p>So is this deal shabby and shameful? No more than any other political deal is. We had to ditch parts of the manifesto when we did deals with the Lib Dems in coalition. And it worked rather well. People, mostly of the Lederhosen persuasion, thought it was a disaster, but compared to today’s clusterfuck omnishambles those were the days of milk and honey. At least the <span class="caps">DUP</span> have buried the toxic rantings of the manifesto and will, with Ruth Davidson and her hit squad give us a fighting chance of realistic Brexit.</p>
<p>So everyone, let&#8217;s cut the hypocritical crap. All elections are about seeking power. All manifestos contain bribes. This deal is neither grubby nor shameful. It’s just practical. How long it will last is another matter. But with Alene Foster’s family history with <span class="caps">PIRA</span> I can&#8217;t see her breaking bread with Corbyn and his mob. This is personal.</p>
<p>In the last few days I have been pondering who should take over from May. Some commentators were saying we should skip a generation, but never made any serious suggestions. But this morning it dawned on me. It’s glaringly obvious. Who has had experience in Number 10? Who is popular with all sides of the party? Who comes from humble beginnings? Who has negotiated a deal that could save the skin of the Tories? Chief Whip, Gavin Williamson. And he has all the powers of patronage and the whips office machinery behind him. He could be formidable.This is early days and I have never even met him. I don&#8217;t even know if he is remotely charismatic. I’ve never even heard him speak. We will see. But I am am going to google William Hill and have a flutter. And don&#8217;t underestimate Green. A good man who did well at the dispatch box yesterday. And that wily old fox Davis comes over well. I could happily vote for any of those three. But buy shares in Williamson. A man to be watched.</p>Tue, 27 Jun 2017 08:31:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/06/27/stop-all-this-hypocritical-crap-about-grubby-and-shameful-deals-elections-are-about-bribes-and-deals-and-i-think-i-ve-seen-the-future-he-s-called-gavin
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/06/27/stop-all-this-hypocritical-crap-about-grubby-and-shameful-deals-elections-are-about-bribes-and-deals-and-i-think-i-ve-seen-the-future-he-s-called-gavinIt's time for a parliamentary revolution. Sovereignty must be restored. A deal with EU is dead. Brexit must be buried<p>An interesting constitutional question. At what stage does parliament have an over riding duty to protect the economy from disaster? I suppose it depends what you are over riding. The result of a general election? Never. A referendum? Perhaps. The irony is that for those, like myself, whose bedrock of political beliefs is founded upon Parliamentary sovereignty, referendums are dangerous sideshows designed to make things easier for weak politicians. Cameron was in a weak position when he promised one on Brexit. God how I miss him.</p>
<p>I wonder how many Tories who were screaming for a deal with the <span class="caps">KIPPERS</span> have any sense of remorse at what whirlwind of destruction they have unleashed? And I wonder how many really want to destroy their constituents jobs, living standards and the hopes and dreams of their children. There will be a day of reckoning. It may be sooner than they think.</p>
<p>At the moment there are sixty hard core Tory MPs. They are in a parallel universe, a different reality from the rest of us. The toothsome Loathesome’s manic optimism borders on the psychotic. The FT is biased. Carney is wrong. And everyone who tries to protect jobs an the economy is a traitor to the people. Matt Paris is quite right in the Times today. There are now just two choices. Remain or get out. The soft options are undeliverable. I had hopes that they could be until yesterday. The easiest settlement was a deal on Eu citizens in the U.K and ours overseas. We couldn&#8217;t even get that right. Juncker sees May as weak and outgunned and will toy with her before she is hounded out. Nothing much will be achieved. But if we can&#8217;t get citizens rights sorted what hope do we have to protect the city of London, free trade and migration? The answer is simple. None. So we will limp on until Juncker goes in November and May September. And in September Merkel either returns triumphant, is defeated or weakened. Whatever happens the dynamics will have changed. The Germans and the French will be running the show. Nothing much will happen in ‘negotiations’ until we have clear leadership and a policy that will not trash the economy. At the moment we have neither. We will just drift as lonely as a cloud until, at best, we have a transitional deal which will last for a generation. A generation where we will have no say in the shaping of Europe when it is at peril. We will become a diplomatic irrelevance, a laughing stock, a tin pot little country pretending to be a leading role on the world stage when we are merely an extra.</p>
<p>This is what we have come to. This is how serious it is. It&#8217;s time for a revolution. Not the agit prop of McDonnell, but in Parliament. Parliamentary sovereignty must be resumed. The Brexiteers have had their chance and they have failed miserably. Misplaced, delusional optimism is not a policy, it is a religion. Who is going to have the courage in government to say that Brexit is dead and now must be buried? The Parliamentary arithmetic is there. It&#8217;s time to show courage. The hour has cometh but all they do is simper platitudes and give us a hope that is false in every word and deed. I fear for the country I love. And I fear for my children.</p>Sat, 24 Jun 2017 09:00:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/06/24/it-s-time-for-a-parliamentary-revolution-sovereignty-must-be-restored-a-deal-with-eu-is-dead-brexit-must-be-buried
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/06/24/it-s-time-for-a-parliamentary-revolution-sovereignty-must-be-restored-a-deal-with-eu-is-dead-brexit-must-be-buriedAs the May Celeste drifts aimlessly on the currents Bozo, unfit for office and a national disgrace schemes<p>When the Mail online gives George Soros space to write a piece about how Brexit is going to be a catastrophe and Britain will be forced to change its mind, you know that something very unusual is happening. And when the Chancellor slags off his Prime Minister on national television on Sunday and then hints at a soft Brexit at the Mansion House breakfast on Tuesday, you have a feeling that there is going to be a continental Brexit rather than a full English after all.</p>
<p>Then there is Bozo. Unfit for office, lazy, scheming and a national disgrace. If you think May is bloody awful, this thoroughly dishonest tub of lard is in a league of his own. His Eddie Mair interview was typically slap dash and unprepared. He hadn&#8217;t a clue what was in the Queen&#8217;s speech and didn&#8217;t much care. But what I find so ghastly about this pustule on the sphincter of government is his shameless pursuit of Number 10. At any cost. He gets his people to brief against May and take soundings on the back benches. He then denies any plotting and urges his backbenchers to be loyal to her. Now, he has announced that he will not stand for the leadership until 2019. How very generous. But it doesn&#8217;t stop there. He is now briefing against David Davis. &#8216;Too old&#8230;..beaten by Cameron&#8217;, followed by pics of him with two busty girls with DD slogans on their breasts. The sheer hypocrisy of Bozo trying smear Davis with bit of mild sexism is breathtaking. But predictable. Yet I have some very sad news. Bozo&#8217;s seat disappears in boundary changes. If I wasn&#8217;t on the wagon (temporary measure to get beach body fit for hols) I&#8217;d crack open the prosecco.</p>
<p>The sheer mind boggling incompetence of Number 10 is breathtaking. For months we have been treated to little homilies about how the <span class="caps">SNP</span> can&#8217;t veto Brexit. It appears now that they might be able to. Dear God where were the bloody lawyers? Or maybe they did advise and the gruesome twosome kept it under wraps.</p>
<p>The cabinet is out of control. There is no discipline. Enter number 10 and it&#8217;s like the May Celeste. Plates are laid out for a meal and computers hum. But what happened to the crew? There is no sign of human life. Where have they gone?</p>
<p>We just can&#8217;t go on like this. Didn&#8217;t anyone realise that although the <span class="caps">DUP</span> are a pretty cranky bunch they are tough, ruthless and experienced negotiators.Remember the Good Friday Agreement? An accommodation will be reached. Thank heavens they want a soft Brexit.</p>
<p>So what do we Tories who care about our country and are terrified that by some terrible act of criminal negligence we are complicit in putting Corbyn and his bully boys into power? I&#8217;ll repeat what I wrote a couple of weeks ago. She has to be gone by the party conference. There doesn&#8217;t need to be an election. The people are fed up with them. In a sick twist of fate they actually want strong and stable government. Corbyn&#8217;s mob will moan groan and take to the streets, but it will make no difference. Labour are in a hyped up Disneyland of delusion. Corbynistas really do think that they are waiting in the shadows to form a government. The arithmetic isn&#8217;t there unless we make it so.</p>
<p>So what do we do with Madame? A few years ago when David Tennant was playing Doctor Who he was very angry with a female Prime Minister. &#8216;I can destroy you with just four words.&#8217; She looked puzzled. He then whispered to an aide, &#8217;Doesn&#8217;t she look tired?&#8217; That was the end of her.</p>
<p>And Madame does look tired and emotionally drained. Who wouldn&#8217;t after all she has been though? She has a medical condition. Does she have the mental stamina to go though this heavy pounding? Perhaps. Does she want to? I doubt it. But the Tories and the country need leadership. We just don&#8217;t have it. No amount of makeovers and humility will make Madame the leader we all hoped she would be. So make it swift and make it bloodless and for God&#8217;s sake keep the party faithful at arms length. And make it either Damian or David.</p>Thu, 22 Jun 2017 06:55:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/06/22/as-the-may-celeste-drifts-aimlessly-on-the-currents-bozo-unfit-for-office-and-a-national-disgrace-schemes
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/06/22/as-the-may-celeste-drifts-aimlessly-on-the-currents-bozo-unfit-for-office-and-a-national-disgrace-schemesIs Grenfell Tower a metaphor for our divided society?<p>If I hear another politician recite the mantra &#8216;lessons must be learned&#8217; after a tragedy, I will scream. The lesson that has been learned over the years by the political classes is that they have learned nothing at all.</p>
<p>No words can express the horror of the Grenfell Tower conflagration, so I am not going to try. May was right to order a full public inquiry. It must be swift, decisive and if need be, brutal. If there is evidence of corporate manslaughter it must be put in the hands of the <span class="caps">CPS</span>.</p>
<p>What causes me anguish is that someone or some body decided not to install a sprinkler system which would have cost £200,000 and prevented the fire spreading. What causes me rage is that cladding the building cost £3m. It was filled with combustible material that has been banned in the <span class="caps">USA</span> for buildings over 30 feet tall. It would have cost an extra £5000 to install cladding that was safe and stop the spread of fire. Someone is going to have to explain the decision making progress and the advice that was given.</p>
<p>Now let me give you a truly terrifying statistic. There are 2,925 Tower blocks in Britain. Do you know how many have sprinkler systems? Sit down and pour yourself a stiff drink. The answer is eighteen.</p>
<p>We hear about a report reviewing building regulations that the government initiated which a coroner recommended years ago. It hasn&#8217;t come to light. Yet. Let me give give you a clue as to why not. Tower blocks built post 1974 have to have a sprinkler system. Multiply 2,907 by £200,000 and you get £581,400,000. That&#8217;s the cost of ensuring that the tragedy of Grenfell doesn&#8217;t happen any where else. Perhaps ministers and officials were told that the risk of a fire was tiny. Perhaps local authorities and housing associations came to the same conclusions. And did Kensington and Chelsea really ignore warnings of the residents association? Is the leader of the council really saying that residents didn&#8217;t want a sprinkler system? There are going to be some very uncomfortable questions. They must be answered honestly. But how on earth do those people who live in these other blocks feel? How can any of them believe a word of reassurance? From anyone.</p>
<p>In many ways this tragedy appears to be a metaphor for how some perceive Britain. A divided society where the rich live side by side with the poor, but don&#8217;t even notice them. Where the rich want to prettify a grim tower block so they don&#8217;t have to have the indignity of having to have it scar their multi million pound vistas. Where greedy landlords cut costs oblivious to whether the poor huddled masses in their charge live or die. Where government&#8217;s austerity programmes hit the poorest. Where white goods manufacturers ignore calls to make their products safer.</p>
<p>There are seeds of truth in all of of those comments. But the sense of community, compassion and generosity from the richest to the poorest gives me a sense of optimism. There are many many problems in our society. But there is an inherent sense of decency and goodwill which lays deep not just in the in the people of London but of Great Britain. The residents of Grenfell tower had little and now have nothing. All of us must act.</p>
<p>So perhaps Grenfell Tower is a metaphor after all. One of hope for our divided society.</p>Fri, 16 Jun 2017 07:39:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/06/16/is-grenfell-tower-a-metaphor-for-our-divided-society
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/06/16/is-grenfell-tower-a-metaphor-for-our-divided-societyMPs are like Meerkats. They look soft and cuddly but are deadly killers who hunt in packs<p>MP&#8217;s are like Meerkats. They look soft and cuddly, but in reality they are deadly killers who hunt in packs. At the moment all eyes are on the carnage in the Tory party. It won&#8217;t be too long before Labour&#8217;s own bloodbath hits the front pages. Moderates are horrified at Corbyn&#8217;s success. A wipe out would have been the perfect excuse to ventilate him and his ghastly crew. This is now the time for a breakaway. Despite the toothsome smiles, the mea culpa&#8217;s and the cheers they will give Corbyn at the Queen&#8217;s Speech, plotting and unease is bubbling away under the surface. Timing is the key. If they don&#8217;t act soon Momentum will have stuffed the party conference by the end of the year. And an electable Labour Party will turn to dust. The Labour Party has been hijacked. It&#8217;s time to move on.</p>
<p>But the turmoil that will erupt in Labour is a story for another day. May is a triumph of the mortician&#8217;s art. There only only three people she can really trust are Damian Green, Stephen Parkinson, and her husband Philip. They will tell her when to depart with the minimum of humiliation. Real power lies with Graham Brady, who has emerged as a big beast, and the two Gavins who have rebooted the Maybot into humility mode. It&#8217;s a holding operation. Nothing more. The Cabinet despise each other, but her even more. Ignore the gibberings of loyalty and support from the meerkats. They are just sniffing the air for personal opportunity. They don&#8217;t want an early election and neither do the people.</p>
<p>There is a golden rule in politics that as soon as a Prime Minister falls out with her Chancellor over policy it&#8217;s curtains. Hammond will never forgive her. He is in alliance with Ruth Davidson. Both will get a more sensible Brexit. And Davidson has her shock troops in Scotland. Don&#8217;t think that they will slavishly follow the Westminster whip. They won&#8217;t.</p>
<p>What has to be done is put down the destructive demands of the Amish wing with their puritanical demands over Brexit. They must be crushed. They destroyed Major, Cameron and May with their swivel eyed views. It&#8217;s pointless parroting the line about obeying the voice of the people on 23 June. The people have spoken again and they don&#8217;t much care for a negotiating position which will screw their jobs and living standards.</p>
<p>But what is our negotiating position? At the moment I haven&#8217;t a clue, save that the article 50 letter and white paper have been reduced to chip paper. And who is Barnier negotiating with? May is not going to be there for too much longer. Who is calling the shots now? The answer is Hammond. He will take the lead role. You can almost smell the burning rubber of the multiple U turns which will be performed. Poor Theresa. There is nothing more humiliating than a politician eating her own words. This is going to be a banquet.</p>
<p>In many ways the electorate got it right. They are not keen on more grammar schools, the dementia tax and getting rid of free lunches at primary schools. And they are not going to get them.</p>
<p>But we must stop patronising the young. We have been cynically counting on them not to vote. Well, they did. They have an appetite for it. This is good news. Corbyn gave them hope. It may have been a very cynical false hope, but hope nevertheless. It&#8217;s time for a Minister for the young. I&#8217;m not suggesting votes for sixteen year olds. But the Tories ignore the young at their peril. We must give them hope that is deliverable.</p>
<p>This afternoon May starts talks with the <span class="caps">DUP</span>. Well, good luck matey. It will be a very weird experience. Northern Ireland is a strange place. Everything is looked at through the prism of betrayals, territorial rights, flags and cultural identity. And there is a primal mistrust of perfidious Albion. By all means bribe them with cash and investment. We&#8217;ve been doing it for years. But she must be even handed. Introducing legislation to ban Sinn Fein MPs from their allowances and cutting off political donations from abroad would derail the peace process. The Republican community is nervous. We must give them a real future that is not a present which is often an ever recurring past.</p>Tue, 13 Jun 2017 08:18:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/06/13/mps-are-like-meerkats-they-look-soft-and-cuddly-but-are-deadly-killers-who-hunt-in-packs
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/06/13/mps-are-like-meerkats-they-look-soft-and-cuddly-but-are-deadly-killers-who-hunt-in-packsSelling your soul to the DUP is an abomination. Leviticus means Leviticus. Time for a deal with Farron. The price. A referendum<p>Selling your soul to the devil is unwise, even for a politician. But to sell your soul to the <span class="caps">DUP</span> is an abomination. A word that they are rather proud of. It is the first step on the escalator to eternal political damnation. If you thought that the <span class="caps">KIPPERS</span> were an odd ball bunch of fruit cakes you ain&#8217;t seen nothing yet. They were merely gifted amateurs. Fire up the horse and trap as we are heading back to the eighteenth century.</p>
If you think that there are a few right wing nutters on the Tory benches I can assure you they look quite sane when compered to Arlene Foster and her clutch of bigots, homophobes and creationists. One thing is sure. Leviticus means Leviticus.
<p>I can understand May wanting to cling onto her Premiership with the illusion that this little covern of self righteous piousdom will deliver Brexit. Insanity. The EU negotiators will spot a weakness and exploit it. Northern Ireland wants to be treated as a special case rather than as a basket case. But if Northern Ireland has special treatment, what about London and Scotland? A mess. And undeliverable.</p>
<p>I am beginning to wonder if May is real and not some sort of Stepford granny. The last survivor of a failed <span class="caps">CIA</span> cyber experiment to frighten children into obedience. That speech on the steps of Number 10 yesterday was from a parallel universe. Does she honestly believe that she can deliver? Anything?<br />
She has chosen to ally herself with a band of nutters, political assassins and those obsessed with betrayal. And then there is the <span class="caps">DUP</span>.</p>
<p>I was wrong yesterday. She will be gone in days. The recess is looming like a toxic black cloud. The knives are out. There will be rumour and counter rumour, briefing and counter rumour. Rather than take a knife to her cabinet as planned they will take one to her. It will be like Murder on the Orient Express. They will all want a crack at it. All over, done and dusted by the party conference. Another coronation. But what of the Kingdom? May took us into an election where the Tories were cock of the walk and Labour facing extinction. She will never be forgiven for breathing new life into them. She is presiding over a shambles. It is even time to bring back Gove. But once the blood has been cleared from the streets a deal with have to be done. With the Lib Dems. The price will be high but not unaffordable. A referendum on access to the single market. It is the only way the country can buy it way out of this mess.</p>Sat, 10 Jun 2017 08:43:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/06/10/selling-your-soul-to-the-dup-is-an-abomination-leviticus-means-leviticus-time-for-a-deal-with-farron-the-price-a-referendum
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/06/10/selling-your-soul-to-the-dup-is-an-abomination-leviticus-means-leviticus-time-for-a-deal-with-farron-the-price-a-referendumIf you are going to run an election on the cult of personality it's a good idea to have one<p>If you are going to run an election on the cult of personality it&#8217;s a good idea to have a personality. Some of us warned that this was a misguided election and fraught with danger. And some of us warned that Corbyn would do far better than the polls suggested. But I certainly didn&#8217;t think for one moment that we would be in a worse position than we started this foolish fiasco. I am not sure whether May can survive this. Her authority is haemorrhaging. She has no mandate to speak of. The Lords will have fun and games with Brexit. And the Eurocrats will delight in her humiliation. Well at least &#8216;strong and stable&#8217; has been replaced by &#8216;fuck up means fuck up&#8217;.</p>
<p>It won&#8217;t be long before the recriminations start. Crosby will need to clear his reputation. Winning elections is his business. Prepare for a bloodbath in the Sundays. The gruesome twosome will be much diminished and we might just have some collective decision making for a change. Although, as we will be propped up by the ghastly <span class="caps">DUP</span>, I just wonder what can fly in the Queen&#8217;s speech. Not a lot. Five years of doing bugger all is not exactly something to sell to the electorate. Oh, one thing you can be sure of, May will never be allowed to fight another election.</p>
<p>At least I got two predictions right. Ruth Davidson would give Sturgeon a bloody nose. And the Lib Dems would gain some seats. Ruth is a human whirlwind as well as a very human being. She is now in a very powerful position. She has saved May&#8217;s bacon. Anything she wants for Scotland she will get. If only she was leading the Conservatives. It&#8217;s a pipe dream, but she would be wonderful. Like May, Sturgeon&#8217;s authority is draining away. Forget about another referendum. It&#8217;s dead in the water. The union is safe. God bless Queen Ruth.</p>
<p>So let&#8217;s see whose tanks are on May&#8217;s lawn. Davis and Fallon will be giving interviews all over the weekend. Bozo will stay at the FO. She needs him onside.</p>
<p>The other interesting thing about the election is that the Tory press were ignored by the punters. Perhaps proprietors might appreciate that they don&#8217;t have as much influence as they think. No, of course they won&#8217;t. But the Mail will start gunning for May, the Telegraph will fall out of love and the Speccy will become very sniffy. It really is the beginning of the end for her. Six months tops.</p>
<p>I remember asking Merlyn Rees (former Labour Home Secretary) how he and Callaghan kept their minority government afloat. &#8216;Me and Jim just toured the tearoom and bars and asked the boys what they wanted.&#8217; So if you see a white van outside Number 10 you can be assured that it contains the pork barrel. Cash will be thrown at Ulster like confetti. And Brexit? I suspect that the end is nigh.</p>Fri, 09 Jun 2017 10:54:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/06/09/if-you-are-going-to-run-an-election-on-the-cult-of-personality-it-s-a-good-idea-to-have-one
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/06/09/if-you-are-going-to-run-an-election-on-the-cult-of-personality-it-s-a-good-idea-to-have-oneThe car crash election. Herewith the roadkill<p>God, what an election. Only fifty days? It seems like an eternity in purgatory. I&#8217;ve hated every moment. Vile abuse from trolls on all sides, coupled with debilitating incompetence. It&#8217;s a little late in the day to chain the awful Diane Abbott to the bedpost in the attic like a mad and incontinent aunt. The damage has been done. She has been found out as serially dim, arrogant and even unfitted to be in a bathroom cabinet. And let&#8217;s be balanced. Karen Bradley&#8217;s interview with Piers Morgan was cringeworthy. You underestimate Piers at your peril. He can be as much of an attack dog as Andrew Neil. Both had brilliant elections. My favourite comment from Andrew was to Tim Farron. &#8217;You&#8217;re a populist but not very popular.&#8217; And poor old Tim. I rather like him. A decent enough fellow, but somehow he came over as a cross between a Sunday school teacher and an under fifteen football team manager. However, I just don&#8217;t believe the polls. I have a bottle of champagne on the Lib Dems will gaining a few seats.</p>
<p>So what will happen tomorrow? Tricky one. I&#8217;d be amazed if Madame didn&#8217;t win. But I hope it&#8217;s a working majority and that the Tory benches are not stuffed full of yapping, nodding dogs who would kill, cook and eat their grannies for a job. Brexit is going to be bloody difficult. So we want enquiring minds challenging the executive to get the best possible deal for us. I won&#8217;t hold my breath.</p>
<p>So who are the winners and losers? Amber Rudd (would she let Bojo drive her home now?) has had a good war. I don&#8217;t quite buy that she will be a shoe in for Chancellor just yet, but she is going to be a powerful figure. Good. She is one of the few members of Cabinet with emotional intelligence. Hammond has pissed off the gruesome twosome, so if it&#8217;s a working majority he will be off. Boris is the tricky one. If she has a good majority she can offer him Leader of the House which he would turn down. But madame&#8217;s position will not be as strong as it was. Is it worth the risk of having him with time on his hands when the wheels fall off the Brexit negotiations? I suspect he will hang on. Just. Truss? Dead meat. Bradley? Might survive. But what&#8217;s the point? Loathesome? Dead meat. Fox? Will probably hang on. Not as bad as he is billed. And the big beasts? Rudd, Davis, Damian Green, Fallon. And watch out for Gummer. As bright as a button. Hunt? A good man who will be probably be given something else. The others? I really don&#8217;t care, with the exception of David Liddington. He might just get a promotion. His problem is that he is far too sensible and pragmatic.</p>
<p>So the result? Mmm. Tricky. My instincts are a Tory majority of between forty and seventy. We will see. And if it&#8217;s Corbyn? Well, I will expect a knock on the door at 5am on Saturday with a warrant for my arrest signed by John McDonnell ordering me to appear before the People&#8217;s court, trial and summary execution.</p>Thu, 08 Jun 2017 13:51:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/06/08/the-car-crash-election-herewith-the-roadkill
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/06/08/the-car-crash-election-herewith-the-roadkillThe the sky is black with Mayan chickens coming home to roost. The big beasts must clip the wings of Timothy and Hill<p>Those of us who warned that calling an election may not have been an act of political genius see ominous black clouds billowing over the horizon. It is not a thunderstorm. It is not the seven horsemen of the apocalypse popping out for a pint. The sky is blackening with Mayan chickens coming home to roost.</p>
<p>The coronation has been cancelled, the dainty sandwiches are curling at the ends, the beer is going flat and the bunting in tatters. Tomorrow will be crunch day. The first opinion polls since the wickedness of Manchester will be pawed over. If there is not a marked improvement there is a distinct possibility of a Corbyn government. Writing, let alone reading those words, fills me with a primal sense of dread. Yet all we comfortable middle classes do is float around in our cosy little echo chamber of, &#8216;well, of course she&#8217;ll win&#8230;&#8230;.er&#8230;..won&#8217;t she?&#8217;</p>
<p>I hope that the polling nose dive may stir the Remainers to abandon their guilty little secret of wanting to vote Lib Dem. Farron has been surprisingly hopeless. Maybe stay at homers will be encouraged to get out and vote. Some of us warned that Corbyn, despite his many faults, has a sense of innocence and decency about him. He has had a great campaign. Mobbed by adoring fans. Surrounded by bright eyed youngsters. If I was Lynton Crosby I would focus on his team. Bill boards of Abbott, &#8216;your next Home Secretary.&#8217; Thornberry, &#8216;your next Foreign Secretary.&#8217; And that nasty old man McDonnell. Well I&#8217;d just have him depicted with horns and cloven feet, drawing up lists of who will be shot after the revolution. In fact, anyold holiday snap will do. Whatever happens, and I predict a smallish May majority, there will be two consequences. Corbyn will be cemented in place as the eternal leader and moderate Labour will form a new party. This will be very dangerous for the Conservatives. Ah, yes, the C word will come back into fashion. The kid&#8217;s chemistry set experiment of Mayan adoration is making an eggy gas smell and is in danger of blowing up. They won&#8217;t try that little wheeze for a while.</p>
<p>But May is not so much damaged goods as just shown to be mortal. The party will demand changes. The big beasts of Fallon, Davis, Green and McLoughlin will exert more of an influence. She will be told that the wings of Timothy and Hill must be clipped. That there must be more of a collegiate approach. That there must be more consultation. Perhaps even make Davis deputy prime minister. It&#8217;s a bit like Thatcher before the fall. Ministers were queuing up to tell her that she should be in listening mode, more collegiate and less arrogant. She just slipped them the birdie. The end was swift and bloody.</p>
<p>I do hope May listens. She is basically a decent person with good instincts. I am told that when she relaxes with friends she can be warm. I suspect that there is an inherent shyness and insecurity which gives the impression of glacial indifference to others. That her dread of getting it wrong makes her look stilted and awkward. It&#8217;s time she became more relaxed in her own skin.</p>
<p>We can&#8217;t afford any more mistakes. This election has become interesting. And utterly terrifying.</p>Sat, 27 May 2017 08:26:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/05/27/the-the-sky-is-black-with-mayan-chickens-coming-home-to-roost-the-big-beasts-must-clip-the-wings-of-timothy-and-hill
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/05/27/the-the-sky-is-black-with-mayan-chickens-coming-home-to-roost-the-big-beasts-must-clip-the-wings-of-timothy-and-hillThe knuckle draggers hate May's manifesto. Splendid. You can't teach an old dogma new tricks, just send it to the vet<p>Like the overwhelming majority of the voting public I haven&#8217;t read the Conservative or for that matter, any, election manifesto. They are window dressing. The various bribes and threats will be spun to destruction by all sides of whatever the argument is. Which is basically, Corbyn is dangerously crap and May dully adequate. That&#8217;s probably a little unkind, but it&#8217;s mood music and flavour that counts. This election is about leadership and nothing else.</p>
<p>I do feel a bit sorry for the press. Weeks of being corralled into soulless factories. Rehearsed and reheated questions. With North Korean applause from ministers desperate to keep their shared mid range family saloons and wide eyed Teenage Tory Mutants whom one day might just make it to the heady heights of the Parish Council.</p>
<p>Another reason a try and avoid reading manifestos is because it&#8217;s far more fruitful to see what is on offer through the eyes of the media. It&#8217;s a waste of time reading the fine print, because unless there is a hidden pledge to put to the sword the first male born child, it&#8217;s contents are not going adorn the Mail or the Sun. But the Mayan manifesto, or the bits of it that have surfaced, is rather cheering. I don&#8217;t mean in policy terms, but in mood music. The knuckle draggers of the right are very confused. Cavemen brains can only take so much detail before they have to go out into the jungle and kill tea for the lady wife. They have a simple test. Would St Margaret have approved? Is May one of us? Is she sound? And the poor dears just can&#8217;t work it out. They are horrified at what they think is statism by stealth. Caps on energy prices? That&#8217;s anti business. Let the market rip. Interfere in people&#8217;s lives? Let them fuck it up. It&#8217;s not a matter for government. One permanent secretary told me that he thought she was a Heathite. And now the press have coined the phrase, Red Tory. Both very wide of the mark.</p>
<p>I just don&#8217;t think you can pigeon hole May. What I found most enlightening about her latest speech is that she condemned looking at issues though the prism of an ism. You can&#8217;t teach and old dogma new tricks, so put it quietly and respectfully to sleep. To my mind this is proper political pragmatism. Many more people than we think find things more of a struggle than we middle classes are aware of. They work hard. They love their kids. They respect their partners. But still somehow they manage to be screwed by someone. Usually a faceless entity. The Philip Greenian doctrine of company management. Banks who make it more and more difficult to get a mortgage. Pay day loans at deeply immoral rates of interests. Crap schools. And energy companies who just take the piss as well as your money. What May is saying is, &#8216;I get it. Trust me and I will fight for you.&#8217; People resonate with that. It is a powerful message if it is sincere. And I believe that she is.</p>
<p>Well, she has had her wobbly weekend. Lynton Crosby will be making it brutally clear that the party must stay on message and stop going into panic and self doubt the moment there is the first whiff of cordite. So forget the manifesto. It&#8217;s served its purpose and is yesterday&#8217;s chip paper. Back to the message. Leadership, leadership, leadership.</p>
<p>Oh, and thank you Pippa. The tabloids are far more interested in your bum then they are about opinion polls. With a bit of luck Harry will announce his engagement to whomsoever he is currently shagging and Katie Price might just have another divorce,/marriage/visit to rehab or a baby. Probably the bloody lot.</p>Sun, 21 May 2017 05:39:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/05/21/the-knuckle-draggers-hate-may-s-manifesto-splendid-you-can-t-teach-an-old-dogma-new-tricks-just-send-it-to-the-vet
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/05/21/the-knuckle-draggers-hate-may-s-manifesto-splendid-you-can-t-teach-an-old-dogma-new-tricks-just-send-it-to-the-vetThe scandal that undermines our once great system of justice<p>I never blog on cases, but today I must break my rule. Yesterday I discovered a scandalous state of affairs which could have led to an innocent man going to jail for a substantial period of time. I will not name the defendant nor the court for obvious reasons. In forty years of practice at the bar this shook my faith in what was once the finest and fairest justice system in the world. Read this and weep. And mourn for British justice.</p>
<p>Yesterday I was sent to the Crown Court to offer no evidence in a firearms case. I had been instructed some weeks ago as Prosecution counsel. Let me give you a thumbnail sketch. Last year the police searched a van. In this van was a tool box and in this tool box were founds guns and ammunition. This comprised of an 8mm blank firing pistol converted to be a lethal weapon. An empty magazine belonging to that hand gun. A Glock self loading hand gun. The magazine from this handgun contained two live rounds. And three further live rounds were found in a knotted bag. It goes without saying that the possession of these items is a very serious offence and carries a minimum sentence of five years for the guns and a consecutive sentence for the ammunition. Anyone convicted potentially faces a sentence of imprisonment of seven years upwards.</p>
<p>The guns and ammunition were forensically examined. The laboratory gave the police what is called a Streamlined Forensic Report (<span class="caps">SFR</span>). It came to this conclusion, &#8216;a match exists between the defendant and the sample&#8217;. In other words the defendant&#8217;s <span class="caps">DNA</span> was found on one of the magazines.</p>
<p>This was served on the <span class="caps">CPS</span> and duly uploaded onto the digital case system, effectively serving this on the court and the defence. An <span class="caps">SFR</span> is precisely that, and both prosecution and defence are entitled to see the full report. But very often it is taken at face value. As there was no other evidence the <span class="caps">CPS</span> reviewing lawyer wanted further information. He asked for more information. Was there a mixed profile? How strong was the <span class="caps">DNA</span>? He received obfuscation from the lab. &#8216;The <span class="caps">SFR</span> provided indicated that a number of results were subject to progress.&#8217; But the lawyer was dogged in his determination and finally received this bombshell. &#8216;The lab confirms due to confusion they have never compared mixed profiles against the defendant.&#8217; They also stated that &#8216;progress means there are no additional findings&#8217;. Then came this chilling line. &#8216;The lab refused to elaborate any further&#8230;&#8230;&#8217;</p>
<p>The reviewing lawyer reported the following,&#8216;I am concerned that the language used in the <span class="caps">SFR</span> appears to assert positive and ongoing actions when they are clearly negative. I have requested the <span class="caps">OIC</span> to obtain an email from the forensic officer confirming the phone communication and what is implied in the <span class="caps">SFR</span>&#8230;..he confirmed that the report was misleading.&#8217;</p>
<p>The <span class="caps">CPS</span>, underfunded, overworked and creaking at the seams comes in for a lot of criticism. In this case the reviewing lawyer deserves a herogram.</p>
<p>Yesterday when I offered no evidence I explained to the judge in detail what had happened. I will never forget the look of horror on his face. There will be a thorough judicial investigation.</p>
<p>And yesterday <span class="caps">SKY</span> <span class="caps">NEWS</span> reported that a private forensic laboratory had &#8216;manipulated data.&#8217; What the hell is happening? I will tell you. In 2010 the government announced that the national forensic service (the <span class="caps">FSS</span>) was to be closed down and forensic analysis would be privatised. Let me be clear that the <span class="caps">FSS</span> has had its fair share of cock ups. But the government announcement prompted horror from professionals. The National Audit Office warned, &#8216;this could spark a crisis within the justice system.&#8217; They were right. Soon the court of appeal will be swamped. Will someone, somewhere listen? I won&#8217;t hold my breath.</p>Wed, 10 May 2017 07:09:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/05/10/the-scandal-that-undermines-our-once-great-system-of-justice
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/05/10/the-scandal-that-undermines-our-once-great-system-of-justiceThe two parties have become a bunch of cults. But the country is worshiping at the court of Good Queen Tess<p>Dear God another month to go. How much more can a sentient being take? Oh, I forgot. This is a aimed at voters. It is strange how the two parties have turned into cults. The Corbynistas genuinely worship him. He has come down from the mountain with his slab of granite and ten democratically curated composite motions. The trouble is that they are the playbook from another forgotten and rejected era. Big business bad, workers good. Anyone earning over £80,000 is rich, so tax them until their pips squeak. Tell that to hardworking head teachers and doctors. It is all wonderful worthy stuff. The sort of fluffy, warm, dreamy idealism that Swampy and his chums would debate hanging from their trees the night before laying in front of bulldozers. The trick in politics, if you want to win, is not just to make yourself feel great but to make those you want to vote for you feel even better.</p>
<p>But it would be foolish to deny the genuine affection that Corbyn&#8217;s followers have for him. For the first time in years they have been given a voice. The sneering middle classes, the Westminster effete, the once rulers of the galaxy have been cast into eternal darkness. In short, Labour enthusiasts are having fun. &#8216;People are listening to us&#8217;, they cry in misty eyed disbelief. &#8216;If it wasn&#8217;t for the wicked, biased, enemy of the people, the Tory bloody media led by the fascist <span class="caps">BBC</span>, our message would get across.&#8217; What they don&#8217;t seem to have realised is that their message has got across and people don&#8217;t much care for it.</p>
<p>In times of crisis the British like strength. They didn&#8217;t love Thatcher. But they believed she could sort out our mess. She was humourless, had a voice that could curdle cream and wasn&#8217;t particularly bright. But she surrounded herself with intelligent people who could translate her instincts into policy. And her instincts were mostly in tune with the public. Most important of all she transcended party. She had a direct line to the public. Her party was merely the apparatus for getting her message through. And for a while it was very effective. But when trust transformed into worship and worship demanded loyalty, disobedience led to punishment. And the realisation that she was a mere mortal after all.</p>
<p>I am not trying to make too much of a comparison between May and Thatcher. They are both very different people. Although I don&#8217;t know May at all, despite her clankyness and horror of the media her instincts tend to be right and I detect a genuine sense of warmth. Tonight on the One Show we will see her with her husband Philip. My advice is to forget the slogans the petty party politics and show the real May, which I suspect is far softer than we think.</p>
<p>But back to the campaign. The Crosby playbook is breathtakingly simple. Find the strengths of your candidate and bang over the message over and over again. Then some more. Be relentless. Keep every spokesman on message. Allow no dissent. So far it has worked very well. This has become a Presidential campaign. The Conservative Party is merely the structure for getting her elected. The interminable Strong and Stable may drive us scribblers insane, but it is effective. What is the Labour message in a sound bite? None of us have a clue. Who Cares Wins might work. But it&#8217;s too late. Nobody is listening. It&#8217;s worship at the court of Good Queen Tess.</p>
<p>And the Lib Dems? Farron has been a disappointment. His message of attracting the 48 per cent is not translating into the polls; yet. His personal campaigning skills are not as effective on the media as I expected. But anecdotally I am utterly convinced that they will do much better than the pollsters think. Iain Dale is right to predict that the Tory majority will not be a landslide but about seventy. We will see.</p>
<p>So when will May&#8217;s wobbly Thursday be? To find the answer look at where she is most vulnerable. Answering probing questions. She will survive the Question Time approach, although expect a small bounce for Corbyn and Farron. But if I was Crosby I would be particularly concerned about Andrew Neil. He is far more forensic than Paxo ever was. He interviews like a top barrister cross examines, with the golden rule of never ask a question unless you know the answer. Stable and Strong sound bites won&#8217;t work here. She really needs a day of someone playing the role of Neil roughing her up.</p>
<p>It is now the Theresa May show. All Tories will have to remain on message. They must be like the Borg (Star Trek) collective hive. They have one thought, one direction, one personality. &#8216;You will be assimilated. Resistance is futile.&#8217; And for heaven&#8217;s sake keep Bozo in the attic. He is like Roger Rabbit. He can&#8217;t help himself from saying or doing something really, really stupid. On the other hand release him for just one day. Just to break up the boredom.</p>Tue, 09 May 2017 08:46:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/05/09/the-two-parties-have-become-a-bunch-of-cults-but-the-country-is-worshiping-at-the-court-of-good-queen-tess
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/05/09/the-two-parties-have-become-a-bunch-of-cults-but-the-country-is-worshiping-at-the-court-of-good-queen-tessJuncker is an old drunk. On power. Before breakfast. He is alienating member states and Remainers like me<p>This is an election of slogans. When May duck walked her way into another factory surrounded by a kinder of blue rosetted star struck adolescents, some jaded hack remarked that she might as well wear a fur coat and sing Rule Britannia. That rather confused the penned and irritable scribblers fantasising about their first three pints of Doom Bar, and a collective question mark bubble appeared. &#8216;Song and sable you twats&#8217;, to universal groans.</p>
<p>But yesterday was the turn of Diane Abbott who slogan now appears to be, &#8216;fuck it up means fuck it up&#8217;. And she did us proud. She has all the grasp for detail that Edward Scissorhands had for chopsticks. Well, at least her car crash was with a Ferrari. Labour high command ( not so much on dope as a bunch of them) are in a state of strong non stable non government. Seamus has issued an internal memo, &#8217; for God&#8217;s sake (not that we believe in her) don&#8217;t let her sing (by &#8216;her&#8217; we don&#8217;t wish to make her gender binary nor offend the trans community).</p>
<p>Whist this is a great start for the Tories, the noises off from Brussels are strident to the point of insulting. The spinning of the Downing Street dinner was pretty disgraceful and wholly counter productive. But to tell us that May will not be allowed to lead negotiations is both wrong and stupid. Thatcher, May and Blair led negotiations in the past. What has changed? The 27 will not be happy about this. They are being sidelined. Juncker is a drunk; on power. And he starts before breakfast.</p>
<p>Doesn&#8217;t this foolish man realise that he is alienating Remainers like me? Doesn&#8217;t he appreciate that this is all meat and drink for the carpet biting separatists? He is delivering Theresa May the coronation she wants. What a foolish old man.</p>Wed, 03 May 2017 14:31:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/05/03/juncker-is-an-old-drunk-on-power-before-breakfast-he-is-alienating-member-states-and-remainers-like-me
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/05/03/juncker-is-an-old-drunk-on-power-before-breakfast-he-is-alienating-member-states-and-remainers-like-meIf the Tory campaign slogan to the middle classes is, 'Labour will kill you whilst we will merely fuck you' there could be trouble <p>I have a deep gut feeling that this election is not going to play out the way Theresa May wants it to. &#8216;Hah,&#8217; you smirk, &#8216;look at the opinion polls, Corbyn is toast, even the Samaritans hang up on him&#8217;. Well, maybe. I don&#8217;t for one moment think that Corbyn will win, but he will do much better than we think. All elections are won on the middle ground and they will desert him in droves. But although Corbyn is a disaster at the dispatch box, he is in his comfort zone at the big rallies of besotted, love struck, damp gussetted disciples. They will harangue the wicked press and the fascist <span class="caps">BBC</span>, burn effigies of Murdoch and pray for the day when the war monger Blair gets his own personal Nuremberg. May is not in her comfort zone on the stump. To be honest I am not really sure where her comfort zone is. She doesn&#8217;t have the easy charm of Cameron and is so wooden she might as well be called the Cuprinol Kid. And she would be mad to think that the press can be kept at bay. Pity the poor bloody electorate who have got weeks of this guff and counter guff.</p>
<p>Corbyn&#8217; s advantage is that he has nothing to lose. For him, to quote the Blair campaign song, &#8216;things can only get better&#8217;. Madam has taken a gamble drawn up exclusively with her two elves. If it goes wrong, if her new mandate is corrupted by a Lib Dem surge, as I suspect it will be, she faces danger from her cabinet and back benches. When things go wobbly (every election does) it will be interesting to see when Bozo goes off message. I promise you, he will. Kong of Sulk island will soon be thumping his chest.</p>
<p>What is interesting is the mechanics of it all. After a fork of lightening, a crash of thunder and a terrifying storm, striding out of the gothic gloom with only his cloven hooves shimmering in the moonlight, is the brash, brazen and brilliant Lynton Crosby. His rule is simple. I&#8217;ll give you the best chance of winning this election, just follow my instructions to the letter. He makes Josh Lymon look like a mild mannered introvert. He will have a professional working relationship with May. It will certainly not be the blokish banter he had with Cameron. Somehow I just can&#8217;t imagine him coming out with the sort of remark he made about Cameron after the 2015 victory, &quot;Christ, I could suck the guy&#8217;s cock&#8217;. It is not going to be a barrel load of laughs.</p>
<p>The real tension will be his relationship with the gruesome twosome, Fi and Nick. They see themselves as gatekeepers to the sacred blue flame of St Theresa. They are used to being in control. They will find it hard to take orders. But they have never run an election campaign. They would be wise to bite their tongues. Not that they will. When the polls start to slide they will do what Tories are so good at; panic. Their relationship with Crosby is going to be fraught if not toxic. Let&#8217;s revisit this is a month.</p>
<p>One of the difficulties May has is what is defining shape of what the mandate she wants from us. &#8216;Give me the tools and I will finish the job?&#8217; Well, she is blessed with Boris, Loathsome, Grayling and Truss. And will it make our negotiations with Brussels that much stronger? I still am not entirely sure anymore. The Trump bombshell that the EU will get a trade deal before us is a serious psychological blow. But in reality the final Trump position on world trade hasn&#8217;t yet been formed. He still needs to appoint hundreds of negotiators. A friend of mine was in DC recently trying to negotiate a trade deal. He was in discussions with three different teams.Hopeless? So all is not lost yet. But this could be the <span class="caps">TTIP</span> of the iceberg if the globalisers prevail in the West Wing.</p>
<p>The European Parliament&#8217;s statement that article 50 is not irrevocable is a real and present danger for the Brexiteers and May. It is meat and drink for Farron who could wipe out 27 Tory marginals and heaven knows how many Labour ones.</p>
<p>Now for my gut feeling. It tends to be right, but obviously not infallible. I felt that I was going to win in 1983 and 1992. I felt that Cameron would have a majority in 2015. My emotions got the better of me in the referendum because my gut feeling was that we remainers were in trouble, but I was stupid enough to delude myself with what I wanted to believe. Indulge me. Go to your pub, club and mates and ask three simple questions. &#8216;Was the election necessary? What do you think of Corbyn? Who will you vote for?&#8217; None of this is very scientific, but so far I haven&#8217;t met anyone, including Tory backbenchers, who think that this election was necessary nor a good idea. As for their views on Corbyn? So far everyone everyone has just rolled their eyes. The really interesting answer was about voting intentions. I am now talking about committed Tories and Labour supporters who have voted for them all their lives. Their answers so far have been unanimous. Two words. Liberal Democrats. Things may change. But with the biggest fall in consumer spending in seven years, wage stagnation, and a real chance that the Conservative campaign slogan to the middle classes might be, &#8216;Labour will kill you whereas we will merely fuck you&#8217;, anything might happen.</p>Sat, 22 Apr 2017 13:41:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/04/22/if-the-tory-campaign-slogan-to-the-middle-classes-is-labour-will-kill-you-whilst-we-will-merely-fuck-you-there-could-be-trouble
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/04/22/if-the-tory-campaign-slogan-to-the-middle-classes-is-labour-will-kill-you-whilst-we-will-merely-fuck-you-there-could-be-troubleBeware the words of Francis Pym in 1983, 'landslides, on the whole, do not produce successful governments'.<p>I can&#8217;t quite work out whether May is a political genius or as mad as a box of frogs for calling a snap general election. But she certainly has courage. Despite her 20 point lead in the opinion polls over Labour this election is risky. Not that Corbyn is going to get anywhere near winning. He will be running for cover rather than office. But as most news coverage till now has been fixated on Brexit, the failings of the <span class="caps">NHS</span> and education are now going to come to the fore. I wonder whether some extra cash will be found before Parliament is dissolved. Actually, I don&#8217;t wonder at all. I smell the scent of fudge wafting from Number 11.</p>
<p>The real winners will be the Lib Dems. They have turned this election into an opportunity to sink a hard Brexit. They have been doing very well in by elections and Farron is a formidable campaigner. If I was a Tory in a seat where the Lib Dems have come second I would be worried. If I was in a seat which was taken from them at the last election I would be terrified. This could be the beginning of a Lib Dem revival. They could take the soft Labour vote and the One Nation Tory wobblers. They won&#8217;t win power, but the prospect of a Tory Lib Dem coalition is not entirely a fantasy.</p>
<p>May has sensibly set out her stall in an almost Trumpian attack on the Westminster bubble. Parliament is divided, the nation is not. Let the people speak. Farron&#8217;s <span class="caps">USP</span> is simple. This is your chance to have another say on Brexit. We are the party of reasonableness and tolerance. We will heal a divided nation. Both positions have their attractions.</p>
<p>And what about Labour? Those with marginal seats will be traumatised. They will experience a Zombie election. They will not mention Corbyn and will turn down any visits from him. He will be a nightmare in any debate. Or will he? People have such low expectations of him all he needs to do is not fall over and he will have gone up in people&#8217;s estimation. And his basic sense of decency might just shine through. On the other hand he is surrounded by some dangerous fuck wits. The downside of Labour being humiliated and trounced is that they will re group and might just pick an electable leader. But that will be a problem for another day. And <span class="caps">UKIP</span>? It&#8217;s wipe out time.</p>
<p>I wonder what Osborne will do. This is a serious problem for him. His rivals will accuse him of forsaking his constituents. It will gain traction. He could lose. But if he doesn&#8217;t stand all hopes of the leadership evaporates. But May is most likely to remain in Number 10 with a fresh mandate. So what is the point of him staying on and risking another humiliation? I would be surprised if he stands again.</p>
<p>And let us not forget Bozo. Whatever one thinks think of this ghastly narcissistic little tit, he is a brilliant campaigner. But if May wins, his leadership dreams will also come to an end. A May mandate would also allow her to get rid of the dead wood in her cabinet. A fresh start. Strong leadership. A sense of purpose. And a strengthened negotiating position with Brussels. Perhaps she is not so mad after all. But the words of Francis Pym during the 1983 election will hang like a toxic cloud over this one. &#8216;Landslides don&#8217;t, on the whole, produce successful governments.&#8217; He was right. And sacked</p>Tue, 18 Apr 2017 11:59:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/04/18/beware-the-words-of-francis-pym-in-1983-landslides-on-the-whole-do-not-produce-successful-governments
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/04/18/beware-the-words-of-francis-pym-in-1983-landslides-on-the-whole-do-not-produce-successful-governmentsWhy Michael Howard's impeccable logic made me proud to be a knuckle dragging Xenophobic little Englander<p>I find all this fake news rather discombobulating. How can I tell what I read and see is true? Peter Hitchens and Simon Heffer demand we return to imperial measurements. Nigel Farage nearly joins the mile high club with a hard core porn star and £400 per hour hooker. Donald Trump threatens to bomb North Korea. Michael Howard wants to send gunboats to Spain. And Noel Edmonds of Deal or No Deal is to be our chief negotiator with the EU. What do I believe?</p>
<p>I suspect that Bozo is so fat because he is having to eat so many of his own words. Remember his promise that doing a deal with the EU would be a doddle? He Gove and Loathesome all crowed that the referendum was about taking back control. They should have told us that this referred to Spain taking back control of Gibraltar. Oh, and don&#8217;t forget the Elgin Marbles. The Greeks will want to take back control of those too; to sell to the Germans.</p>
<p>And why shouldn&#8217;t we take back control of Calais? And the Norwegians take back control of most of England. Oh, and the Italians will want to take back control of Londinium. But they will at least build a wall to keep the <span class="caps">SNP</span> at bay.</p>
<p>Apart from divide our normally tolerant little nation Brexit has opened up a Pandora&#8217;s box of petty squabbles with Johnny Foreigner. They will remember every little slight, invasion and condescension across the ages. This is pay back time. We are going to get a right royal Wopping, as Mr.Fromage might say when he eventually comes up for air.</p>
<p>Watching Michael Howard on the television last night brought a spring to the Step of every red blooded Englishman. To the strains of land of hope and glory he invoked Margaret Thatcher, the Falklands and that filthy Dago language; Spanish. Dear God it made me proud to be a Xenophobic little Englander. And his logic is faultless. If the bloody wogs threaten Gib we bloody well show them what for. We go to war. Never mind that Spain is a fellow member of <span class="caps">NATO</span>. Of course it means that under our treaty obligations we will have to join the Spaniards and go to war against ourselves. And by Jingo, we&#8217;ll win! That&#8217;ll show &#8217;em. What a tragedy that Howard never became Prime Minister. The world would have been a safer place.</p>
<p>Then there is the impeccable logic of Trump. That mad little fat kid Kim Wrong Un had better watch his mouth and his nukes. If the Chinese don&#8217;t sort out this mess in their own back yard I&#8217;ll bomb em myself. Personally. From Air Force One. It will be beautiful. I am real smart.</p>
<p>I really do hope that Trump puts that little bit of foreign policy back in the cereal box or fortune cookie where he found it.</p>
<p>So that just leaves us with Noel Edmonds as our chief trade negotiator. Out of all the other news this is the most sane. It must be true.</p>Mon, 03 Apr 2017 09:21:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/04/03/why-michael-howard-s-impeccable-logic-made-me-proud-to-be-a-knuckle-dragging-xenophobic-little-englander
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/04/03/why-michael-howard-s-impeccable-logic-made-me-proud-to-be-a-knuckle-dragging-xenophobic-little-englanderThe future may not be ginger but don't underestimate the Lib Dems<p>The tectonic plates of British politics are not quite moving, but are beginning to wobble. Brexit bestrides the political world like a colossus and like that mighty statue is quite capable of tipping gallons of burning pitch onto ships that are foolish enough to sail between its legs. Before we leave the EU, bloodied bruised and with third degree burns there will be many political deaths. At the moment Queen Theresa (Rees Mogg&#8217;s morning Gloriana) dominates the opinion polls. And Labour? The patient is in a coma. The death rattle is wheezing in its throat and the priest (Humanist of course) is ready to administer the last lefts. And the family sits round the bed hoping a favourable will reading . Poor Corbyn is like the Roadrunner who has ran over the cliff and still running on air. The worst poll ratings since the craft was invented. Although they would be more accurate if they studied sheep&#8217;s entrails. Unthinkably, a large percentage of Labour supporters actually think May is a better leader. Rumours are rife at Westminster that Corbyn knows that the game is up and after the May elections will bow out. People who should know better are predicting that someone sensible and electable like Keir Starmer will replace him. Utter bollocks. Labour is no longer a party that aspires to power but inspires the Swampies and Tamponistas who think it is enough to spend the day on social media screaming abuse at Tory and Blairite scum. Their problem is deciding who is worse. So they will get the gothic McDonnell or one of those well scrubbed harridans who think that a glottal stop is where you alight to get to Islington.</p>
<p>While Labour is haemorrhaging members, the Lib Dems are scooping them up. While Labour is losing by elections they are winning them. Whilst Labour has lost the City, donors and anyone with the brain structure more sophisticated than a marsupial, the donors are lining up for them. And in May there are the local and Scottish elections. I would be amazed if the Lib Dems didn&#8217;t scoop an extra hundred seats. Perhaps more. Ruth Davison will almost wipe Labour out and give Sturgeon a bloody nose.</p>
<p>So does this mean that I have looked at the future and seen that it is ginger? Not quite. I like Tim Farron. He&#8217;s like Jeremy Thorpe without the shagging. A very good campaigner. The trouble is that his party have always been a thoroughly dishonest shower. They&#8217;d offer missionaries to the cannibals for a cheap vote. The irony is that they may pick up the young people&#8217;s vote. Of course, they cynically fucked students over a few years ago. But now the young have seen their futures destroyed by the new hordes of Teenage Mutant Tories who, if they win a landslide at the next General election, will probably advocate the slaughter of the first born to reduce the deficit. Tim won&#8217;t be Prime Minister or Leader of the Opposition, but he will be a force to be reckoned with.</p>
<p>The trouble with this scenario is that Labour have a visceral hatred of the Lib Dems. You know the history, so I won&#8217;t bore you with it. But what alternative to they have? A friend of mine is a professor of Darwinian biology. We were talking about politics the other day. He smiled. &#8216;You do realise that the history of evolutionary survival rests on two important truths? Elitism and extinction&#8217;. Labour back benchers would be wise to take that advice to heart. If they don&#8217;t, a few might be sighted in Lochness. But nobody would believe it. Labour backbenchers were just folklore.</p>Sun, 02 Apr 2017 14:48:00 +0000http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/04/02/the-future-may-not-be-ginger-but-don-t-underestimate-the-lib-dems
http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2017/04/02/the-future-may-not-be-ginger-but-don-t-underestimate-the-lib-dems