第10章 新しいRANベンダーの情勢

第11章 結論：ネットワークはソフトウェアへ動く

図表リスト

目次

Abstract

About the report

The biggest challenge for mobile operators in this decade is to narrow the
gulf that has opened up between data demand and available wireless capacity,
with mobile traffic set to rise by 35 times by 2018, while the revenues
generated from that data could rise by just 2.5%.

This makes it vital for mobile operators to slash the costs of delivering data
while charging more for their services, by adding value or devising new
applications. Both those critical challenges will require a complete rethink
of current approaches to the access network. The two main trends will be the
deconstruction of the macrocell, to support highly distributed and Cloud RANs;
and the adoption of public access small cells in large numbers, to add
capacity indoors and outdoors.

This report analyzes and forecasts both those key trends in depth for the
period 2012 to 2018, including important elements like Carrier Wi-Fi, smart
antennas, HetNet developments and adoption of LTE-Advanced features. It is
based on Maravedis-Rethink's ongoing tracking of the top 100 4G operators in
the world, in its MOSA

The result is a detailed examination of the technologies carriers will deploy
in their new radio networks in the period to 2018, and the business benefits
they expect to gain. There is in-depth quantitative and qualitative analysis
of operator strategies and the technologies available to them, particularly in
the most disruptive elements of the new network - metrocells, distributed base
stations, software programmable BTS, and the beginnings of the software
defined network.

There is also analysis of the patterns of deployment in terms of spectrum
bands; TDD and FDD modes; cell site size; antenna type; and which LTE-A
capabilities will gain prominence. Based on all this analysis, the report
provides market sizes, market share calculations and forecasts for small cell
and macrocell equipment.

Executive Summary

The 'perfect storm' which faces mobile operators round the world is well
documented. It can be summarized as:

Exploding data and signaling volumes

Declining voice and messaging revenue

Stagnant or declining ARPU

Declining revenue per Mbyte

Just to stand still, operators need to invest in networks which can support
the data volumes and user experience demanded by users, but cannot be certain
these will guarantee higher ARPUs and profits, when much of the usage is
over-the-top.

Without a radical new approach to how networks are built and planned,
operators will continue to see a divergence between data growth - which will
increase by about 35 times between 2013 and 2018 - and revenue growth (only
2.5% in the same period, if the current network topologies and services were
retained).

This report examines the ways in which a radical new way of building the
mobile network will help narrow the gap between traffic and revenue, and how
that will shake up the supplier rankings.

The new RAN

Hallmarks of the new RAN will include:

Increasing deconstruction of the base station to distribute processing
effort efficiently and reduce cost

Smaller and smaller cells, to maximize capacity by moving it closer to the
user

Multiple layers of base stations within each macrocell, often using
different frequencies and air interfaces within one cell to deliver more
capacity

Extensive offload of macro network data to Wi-Fi and other technologies

These add up to two key and related trends - the distributed network and the
small cell. The logical extension of these trends will be two radical network
designs which will be fully enabled by LTE-Advanced - the heterogeneous
network (HetNet) and the Cloud RAN. Both of these will be firmly on the
cellcos' roadmaps from late 2013 with the beginnings of LTE-Advanced upgrades.

The 100 mobile operators tracked by Maravedis-Rethink's MOSA (Mobile Operator
Strategy Analysis) service are targeting an average reduction of over
one-third (35%) in their cost per Gbyte by deploying the new topologies,
compared to what they expected using conventional techniques. As small cells,
distributed RAN and HetNet are rolled out widely, the cost of delivering a
gigabyte of data can be reduced from almost $40 on a traditionally planned LTE
network (or almost $70 on HSPA) to $26.

Small cells:

Small cells are central to the new thinking of the mobile broadband RAN, but
many challenges must be overcome before metrocell deployment becomes
mainstream. However, there will be significant growth in small cell deployment
for public access, both indoors and outdoors. In the early phase, this will be
driven by a few pioneers like Softbank Mobile in Japan and SK Telecom in Korea
but by 2018 metrocells will be a standard element of carrier build-outs,
thanks to lower prices and more robust standards.

An important decision for operators is whether small cells will be primarily
deployed indoors, to boost public access capacity and coverage in large
buildings and venues, or outdoors, where the class 'lamppost' model comes into
play - creating a layer of metrocells close to the ground, typically mounted
on street furniture or low buildings. In the first wave the emphasis is on
indoor cells, because the majority of heavy mobile data usage takes place
indoors and site planning is simpler. By 2018, however, outdoor cells will
account for 60% of the market.

Another factor with significant impact on the pattern of investment in
metrocells is the urban/rural mix in a carrier's base. Metrocells are a
heavily urban phenomenon throughout the study period, as their primary role is
to supplement capacity in the most congested areas, and their secondary remit
is to deliver differentiators - personalized services, improved quality of
experience - where there is the largest number of high value consumers.

All this activity will create a market worth $13bn a year at its value peak in
2016-2017. After this, although deployment units will continue to rise,
intense price pressure will drive down overall CAPEX investment in metrocells.

The new macrocell:

The importance of the small cell should not imply that the traditional cell is
going away. Growth in macrocells will be slow compared to that in small cells,
but will continue and will be stimulated by the rise of new base station form
factors to address larger sites. These will start with the commonly deployed
remote radio head (RRH) and evolve towards integrated antenna/radio units such
as Ericsson's AIR. Baseband processing is separated, in these examples, and
actual site equipment gets smaller, cheaper and lower power.

However, there is significant investment in virtualized baseband processing
units - initially on or near the site, but later on remote servers and in the
cloud (Cloud-RAN). This means that numbers of deployments to macro sites
remain high throughout the period - though in decline after 2016 - but the
shape of the equipment is very different. A significant proportion of CAPEX
will go on replacing traditional base stations with the new designs, to
accommodate easier migration to LTE, LTE-Advanced and new frequency bands.

Today, the operator checklist for the macrocell is:

Multimode, multiband base stations

Software programmable to accommodate the different options

Can support alternative energy sources

Have radio heads remote from the baseband, but tight integration of radio
and antenna

Support active antennas

Can be flexibly incorporated into HetNets

Can be mounted in a variety of locations from towers to roofs to lamp poles

Baseband processing can be carried out in a distributed fashion or in the
cloud

Intelligent traffic management is supported from the edge to the core

Each of these elements and trends is analyzed in the report.

Emerging RAN technologies

Small cells are not the only technology which, though in their infancy in
2013, have the potential to disrupt the way RANs are planned and deployed. The
report also analyzes other key trends which will change the shape of the radio
network by 2018. The most disruptive, but widely accepted by operators, are
Cloud-RAN and various smart antenna technologies, particularly advanced MIMO
and, on the horizon AAS.

From 2013, LTE-Advanced features will start to affect the pattern of the new
RAN too. LTE-Advanced is not a 'big bang' upgrade, but a diverse menu of
enhancements, most optional - some of which are well on the way to commercial
availability, but others which will never be deployed at all. The report
analyzes which options will be critical to new network design and which will
be ignored by operators.

Apart from higher data rates, carrier aggregation and SON features (such as
automatic neighbor relations based on the X2 standard) emerge as the features
most important, in the 3-year timeframe, to a successful network in terms of
performance and business model.

Base station vendors are starting to launch equipment which can support at
least some elements of Release 10, most commonly CA and advanced MIMO. Some of
the capabilities will be stimulated particularly by the move to small cells,
especially eICIC and SON features.

By 2018, carrier aggregation, eICIC, CoMP and 4x4 MIMO will be almost
universal in new base stations (88% or above); LTE Broadcast will be commonly
deployed (75% of cells). Other features will be less prevalent because they
apply to more specialist use cases, as with LTE Relay, or there is significant
carrier caution, as in 8x8 MIMO. Release 11 features are starting to become
mainstream from 2017 and are present in almost 60% of new base stations
shipped in 2018.

RAN vendor landscape

The new shape of the radio network will force vendors to respond with their
most radical portfolio revamps in years, and their success in doing so will
determine the supplier landscape of 2018 - which could be significantly
different from that of the 3G world. Smaller players will either be acquired
(as Ubiquisys already has been by Cisco) or find major partners to bring their
innovations to the required scale. Ericsson, the slowest to embrace the small
cell trend, may well seek a partner or acquisition, for instance. The biggest
shake-up is likely to be triggered by the entry of Cisco into the access
network, with its own small cells and its strategic purchases of RAN
technologies like those of Ubiquisys and Intucell.

Small cells are having a disruptive effect on traditional vendor business
models by importing consumer-grade economics and new supply chains into their
markets.

Maravedis-Rethink analyzes vendors against a set of metrics in its Imago
rankings system. In the metrocell ranking, we find that Alcatel-Lucent and
Samsung are best placed to build market share in public access metrocells,
though Ubiquisys rates most highly for product innovation.

Full vendor SWOT assessments are included for each major OEM in the report.

The final disruption to the base station market will come when telecoms
follows the PC model - commoditized hardware, standardized protocols, and
functionality added and modified in software. This sounds radical in a base
station equipment market which is still worth billions of dollars a year, but
by 2018, it will be very real.