I haven´t seen any poll from MS either. Even in 2004 and 2006 there were hardly any polls from that state ...

Well, I know who I'm calling as the winner, but w/o even one poll, it's hard to make a percentage.

Well, you'll just have to start at the Bush/Kerry numbers, and adjust based on changes in the perceived African American turnout (I'd guess that moves the needle towards Barbour) and Eaves' conservatism (which may be a plus OR a negative, depending on how you look at things).

--Kerry was a terrible candidate for Mississippi. Eaves will do much better among whites in Mississippi than Kerry did.--There is a black candidate, Gary Anderson, running for Insurance Commissioner who has a legit chance of winning. He would be the first African-American to ever hold statewide office in Mississippi. He's done a great job campaigning and ought to keep black turnout high, and could end up having some (small) coattails on the rest of the ticket.--Barbour promised the fundies he'd never let casinos move onto land and then he did. They have not forgiven him for that and many are buying into Eaves's pro-Jesus pro-family stances. Eaves is putting together a bizarre coalition of liberals, blacks, and fundamentalist Christians that may not win, but will at least surprise some people across the country.

If I'm shown as having been active here recently it's either because I've been using the gallery, because I've been using the search engine looking up something from way back, or because I've been reading the most excellent UK by-elections thread again.