Election night

Live-blogging the mid-terms

MID-TERM elections are never easy for the president's party, but this year's are looking especially bleak for Barack Obama's Democrats. The final predictions are in and the soothsayers expect an outcome in line with the Republican landslide of 1994. Larry Sabato believes the GOP will pick up 55 seats in the House and eight in the Senate. Charlie Cook concurs, expecting a Democratic net loss of 50 to 60 seats in the House, and six to eight seats in the Senate. The statistical Nate Silver delivers some good news for the weary left, calculating a 94% chance the Democrats will hold onto the Senate. But he gives them only a 17% chance to keep the House. And when it comes to state-level races, which may be the more important lot, the story is much the same—19 governorships look set to change parties, with as many as 12 going to the Republicans.

But predictions are difficult, especially when they're about the future, so watch with us (and join us in comments) as the results roll in tonight. The cable news channels are already in a tizzy, but we'll start off slow and pick up pace as more and more states report their results. We begin at the bottom of the page.

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2:00: As we wrap things up, let's go over the results thus far. The Republicans have won at least 60 seats in the House, surpassing their total from 1994. John Boehner is your new speaker. In the Senate, Republicans have gained at least six seats, with close races still to be called in Colorado, Washington and Alaska. Harry Reid and the Democrats retain control of that chamber. In the states, the GOP has picked up at least eight governorships, with results in many states still coming in. So it has been a very good night for the Republicans.

Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see how the tea-party-inspired Republicans work with the dejected and diminished Democrats. There was very little talk of common ground tonight. But the GOP now owns part of the government, which means they own a share of the blame if it doesn't work properly. And the new leader of the House, Mr Boehner, seems more pragmatist than partisan. I am cautiously optimistic.

My colleague will follow shortly with a more extensive overview of the elections and what they mean for the parties and the president. But before we go, I want to thank all those who commented throughout the night. As Harry Reid said in his victory speech, "You are the real winners." (Seriously, he said that.)

1:32: New Yorkers have voted (again) for term limits. When Mike Bloomberg decided to run for a third term two years ago, he persuaded the city council to change the law. But the people have spoken—they want two terms for city office-holders. By the way, Mr Bloomberg, now in his third term, said he would vote for a two-term limit. Apparently, it's not, according to the mayor, "hypocritical at all".

1:30: I was being sarcastic earlier when talking about Harry Reid's win as a possible negative for the Dems. But I think commenter "doctor robert" makes a good case for why Democrats should celebrate the majority leader's victory: "I don't get why everyone wants Reid out as majority leader. Why is he so bad? He's been an excellent political operative for the president, delivering 100% of his caucus on numerous huge votes, becoming a huge part in getting Obama's agenda pushed through. He's quiet and boring and all. But he works magic."

1:19: CNN is talking to a wholly uninterested woman holding a plate of marijuana-based baklava. Either it's getting late, or I've had too much baklava.

1:04: The State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations will continue to be called The State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations, even though no one actually calls it The State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations.

1:01: In regard to Mr Reid's win, Chuck Schumer must be wondering "what if ..."

12:58: California will not legalise marijuana, and South Dakota and Arizona both said No to medical marijuana as well.

12:54: Commenter Navarchos helpfully points out that the Missouri referendum to ban puppy mills looks to be a loser. "So to recap, in Missouri, we literally put puppies on the ballot, and the puppies are losing," Navarchos writes. Missouri puppies and Iowa Supreme Court justices seem to be collateral damage of the tea-party surge. At least Harry Reid made it through the fire.

12:46: Harry Reid wins in Nevada. Good news for Democrats?

12:39: With 75% of the vote in, it looks as though the Iowa Supreme Court justices on the retention ballot are out. It's not fully clear to me the impact this will have on the politics of gay marriage in the Hawkeye State. Terry Branstad, the Republican who was governor for most of my childhood, has defeated the incumbent Chet Culver. Mr Branstad opposes gay marriage, and will appoint the new judges. But the governor's imprimatur is generally the last step of the appointment process. Judges are nominated by a nonpartisan commission on the basis of merit, and the governor generally follows its recommendations. Once appointed, judges periodically face a retention vote, like today's. Meanwhile, Iowans have voted decisively not to have a constitutional convention, which would have opened the door for social conservatives to seek an amendment defining marriage in the traditional way.

12:29: Candy Crowley makes a good point about Pat Toomey's win in Pennsylvania's Senate race. This isn't Arlen Specter or Tom Ridge, moderate Republicans whom the state has embraced in the past. This is a hardcore social and fiscal conservative. His victory speaks to the disillusionment Pennsylvanians currently feel with the Democrats. But I also think it means he will have trouble holding the seat in six years. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Mr Sestak challenge him again.

12:20: Mark Kirk has won the president's old seat. Alexi Giannoulias is just 34 years old, however. Plenty of time to find something else to do. Not too late to run for mayor...

12:13: There must be a Jack Donaghy-"30 Rock" joke that would slot in nicely to the green-jobs industrial-subsides debate.

12:11: Ms Orange, the loopy Mr Matthews clearly took the lead in demanding big leaders with the bold vision to erect rock and metal monuments equal to America's unmatched ambition. But Mr Rendell, a jocular fella, gamely played along on the need to "think big" on infrastructure during a time of unfathomably mammoth deficits. Mr Rendell did make a pitch for "green jobs" industrial policy, which certainly would direct handsome subsidies to certain private partners. MSNBC's owner, General Electric, for example.

12:01: Despite or because of?

12:00: Ted Strickland is out as governor of Ohio, despite nine visits from the president this year.

11:58: The Des Moines Register is reporting that the three Iowa Supreme Court justices on the retention ballot are all currently pulling in about 47% percent of the vote with 54% of precincts reporting. They need to make it to 50% to stay on the bench. The judges, including the chief justice, were the target of a vocal campaign by social conservatives to boot them off the court as payback for the unanimous 2009 decision ruling unconstitutional the ban on gay marriage.

11:56: Mr Blue, I didn't see the Rendell-Matthews chat, but are you being too harsh? Mr Rendell is admittedly a big proponent of infrastructure investment, but he has not been shy about seeking private partners and investment for these projects.

11:55: So Mr Brown, that wily old pol, has read his Sun Tzu. (He was quoting Aristides from ancient Athens just today. We like erudition here at The Economist.) He allowed Meg Whitman to spend enough money to turn off every voter in California, then sat back as her own former housekeeper, an illegal alien, told the state how heartless she had been.

11:53: In California, the secretary of state's website is back up. And now it makes sense to call it for Mr Brown.

11:49: An emotional, tearful speech from the new speaker of the House, John Boehner. I think Democrats will be happy they have this man to work with. It could be a whole lot worse.

11:45: Not well!

11:42: Mr Blue, how are those wonderful activist judges who imposed same-sex marriage on Iowa doing?

11:40: The website of California's secretary of state has crashed. Don't believe anybody who calls these races already.

11:37: Chris Matthews and Ed Rendell, Pennsylvania's governor, are engaged in a poetic pas de deux about the romance of making "stuff" out of concrete and steel. "Replace the smell of decay with the smell of construction!" Mr Matthews demands. These guys really think the ticket to national glory in the information age is the construction of massive public works. They make Rand Paul sound like Einstein.

11:30: Little Rhody has an indy governor. John Robitaille, the Republican candidate, has conceded the tight governor's race to Lincoln Chafee, a former Republican turned independent. He will replace term-limited Republican Don Carcieri. Frank Caprio, the Democratic candidate, undoubtedly lost ground when he suggested Barack Obama "shove it" for not endorsing him last month. The president withheld support in deference to Mr Chafee, who crossed party lines to endorse Mr Obama in 2008.

11:29: He is not extremely liberal measured by voting record, but I think if you define "voice of the base" as "guy who makes liberals feel good every time he opens his mouth", then yeah, it'd probably be Al Franken. But incidentally, according to Mr Poole and Mr Lewis, Russ Feingold was actually much, much more left-wing than Bernie Sanders or anybody else in the Senate. So, not quite as obvious as one would think.

11:27: Stuart Smalley?

11:26: I guess it was obvious that Bernie Sanders is the leftmost member of the Senate. I was really trying to avoid the cliche of asking "who is the liberal conscience of the Senate?", since that's a stacked question implying more fellow-feeling with Mr Feingold than I want to. But I'll ask now anyway. I don't think it's Bernie Sanders, obscure, from a small state, in practice independent. Without the very prominent Mr Feingold, who is the Democrats' voice-of-the-base in the upper chamber?

11:19: By "crypto" I mean "secretly", so I suppose tonight I should have said "cryptoconservative", unless we're presupposing that Wisconsin is suffering from the kind of self-alienation that normally stays on the coasts...

11:16: According to Jeff Lewis and Keith Poole's rankings, Bernie Sanders is indeed now the most left-wing person in the Senate. Sheldon Whitehouse is next.

11:14: Ms Green, what's cryptoliberal? Wisconsin has fared particularly badly recently, as the state suffered a downturn not just in manufacturing but in the dairy industry. If you want a bite-sized summary, I'd say Wisconsin likes being independent. Russ Feingold's built an identity as an independent reformer. Hard to seem like an outsider after 18 years, though, I suppose.

11:13: Paul Begala just said of both Harry Reid and Sharon Angle that "they were both running against the only person they could beat". This strikes me as not just well put but true, and a good reason for the Democrats to dump Mr Reid even if he survives.

11:10: Mr Red, I'd say with Russ Feingold out, Bernie Sanders is the leftmost member of the Senate, no?

11:06: CNN is giving 53-43 against Meg Whitman in raw exit poll data, and the same (exact) numbers against Carly Fiorina.

11:02: I was right to be guarded about Illinois and Pennysylvania. Both have shifted, against the Democrats, Mr Sestak and Mr Giannoulias. If the Democrats lose Barack Obama's seat and a major swing state in Pennsylvania, neither Harry Reid's survival or a Murkowski write-in win could turn around perceptions of a wipeout.

10:55: Deval Patrick, the Democratic incumbent in Massachusetts, is holding onto his seat. This should please the White House, seeing that he was advised in 2006 by David Axelrod, one of Mr Obama's top advisers, and David Plouffe, Mr Obama's 2008 campaign manager. It wasn't that long ago that Mr Patrick's approval among voters in the state was "wicked" low, but in recent months he headed most polls. He beat Charles Baker, a Republican businessman. Before the campaign, the two men were fairly friendly with each other. Indeed, Mr Patrick asked Mr Baker to be his bipartisan running mate in 2006, but he declined. Mr Patrick also beat Timothy Cahill, a Democrat turned independent, who most likely took some votes away from Mr Baker. Rhode Island also has an interesting three-way contest we're watching.

10:50: Rick Snyder, a Republican, has won the governor's office in Michigan. The self-proclaimed nerd (he does in fact sound like a tuba) is a political novice who promises to encourage investment and entrepreneurship. I wonder what Jennifer Granholm, the term-limited Democrat, will do next. She's become a fixture on news programmes and fervent advocate of green investment. Maybe she's hoping for an appointment in Washington?

10:50: Ms Green, I wish I could help, but here in Iowa we take pride in ignoring Wisconsin. My brief Google consultation was largely fruitless, but I did learn about "Sewer Socialism", so there's that.

10:47: Can someone from the Midwest give me a bite-sized summary of Wisconson's politics? Agrarian conservative with an anemic socialist strain? Cryptoliberal?

10:44: I'm just looking at the Gang of 14, the relatively moderate senators from the 109th Congress. Only four Republicans from that group remain. They are John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe. Is there enough power, will and moderation in that group to counter the resurgent (or insurgent) conservative wing of the Republican Party?

10:43: Civil libertarians, pour a bit of your fine adult beverage on the ground for the great soon-to-be-ex-Senator, Mr Feingold.

10:42: Russ Feingold is now gone. Who takes his place as the leftmost member of the Senate?

10:40: Speaking of MSNBC's substantive flavour, a few minutes ago Rachel Maddow and Eric Cantor, a Republican congressman from Virginia, were debating the semantics of tax policy. She claims the extension of a prior cut with an expiration date is a second cut. He says if rates stay the same, there is no cut. I score this one for Mr Cantor. Ms Maddow is right, however, that raising taxes would reduce the deficit, and that refusing to raise taxes implies the need to cut spending. Mr Cantor was smoothly evasive about which cuts he prefers, but he was smiling and pleasant throughout the exchange. Ms Maddow came off like a logic-chopping collegiate debater desperate to make it to the quarterfinals. She then passed off to Lawrence O'Donnell who continued to harangue the genial Mr Cantor like a district attorney exasperated by an unfriendly witness. Which is just to say that the MSNBC crew is a pretty peevish bunch about now.

10:37: Uh, I just got a call from a campaign operative in Georgia who wanted to tell me about his new running regiment. Neither the time nor the place, pal.

10:33: I think Michelle Bachmann has no business having a job, but most of her constituents seem to think she does, as do most of Keith Olbermann's fans in regard to the anchor. If we started running down the list of opinion-news anchors who shouldn't be on the air...or even entire networks...

10:31: I think Keith Olberman just called Michele Bachmann a "hypno-toad". Can that be right? This man has no business having a job, much less as a news anchor.

10:27: I can't help but notice a spirited, if slightly ugly, argument about actual policy between MSNBC and Eric Cantor right now. While everyone else is gaming winners and losers, they are talking about the deficit. Bravi.

10:24: Again on the Risk board: Tom Barrett loses the governor's race in Wisconsin, freeing him up to run for sheriff.

10:22: MSNBC's Chris Matthews says he is "physically thrilled" and "overwhelmed" by claims of American exceptionalism. Just in case you were worried it is exclusively a conservative phenomenon.

10:07: Republican Tom Corbett will be moving into the governor's mansion in Pennsylvania. This is a hit for the Democrats. Not ony is the position returning to the GOP after eight years, it gives the Republicans a comfy seat at the redistricting table. Pennsylvania is expected to lose a congressional district.

10:00: Speaking to CNN's Wolf Blitzer, Rand Paul argued that a tax increase could bring about a second Great Depression, and that anyone who proposes one is not fit to be making political decisions. When Mr Blitzer followed up by asking about tax increases limited to those making over $250,000 per year, Mr Paul answered with a touching paean to social solidarity. "We all are interconnected," he said. "There is no rich, there is no middle, there is no poor," Mr Paul maintained, but then immediately scratched his denial of the existence of a class structure with the clarification that "we all either work for rich people or sell stuff to rich people," and thus increasing tax rates for the rich hurts us all. I think this line of argument could use a little work.

9:59: My impression so far, with Sestak, Bennet and Giannoulias looking OK in early polls, and Manchin and Coons through, is that the Republicans are going to underperform expectations in the Senate, but may overperform in the House. How to explain it? The obvious explanation seems to be that people don't like incumbents but they like their own incumbent, and Senate incumbents, being better known, are even more "my own incumbent" than House members are. So generic votes are going for Republicans, but personalised votes favour the status quo, and thus the Democrats' big Senate majority.

9:56: Sorry to see Chet Edwards leave the House. He might be a good statewide candidate next time around...(rapidly rescrambling mental game of Risk).

9:52: Waiting to test the hypothesis that "the tea party stops at the Colorado River".

9:48: I snicker at that poll.

9:47: Mr Black, I don't so much mind the ritual "America is great". I do mind the fake running against those nonexistent hordes who don't think America is great. According to Pew, one of the few researchers to ask such a screamingly obvious question, 85% of Americans have a favourable view of America.

9:39: If the exit polls in California are right, Prop 19 (the initiative to legalise cannabis) did NOT draw the young to the polls in unusual numbers. Or perhaps they're too stoned to show up early, and will still make it. If they don't, Prop 19 will probably go down.

9:34: Mr Rubio notes that sometimes people snicker at his odes to American greatness. I am one of them. I snicker in the same way I snickered at Ricky Henderson for this moment. They're both largely right, but enough already.

9:34: Marco Rubio bravely jumps on the American exceptionalism bandwagon, calling these United States "a place without equal in the history of all mankind." Mr Rubio says he knows that this is so because he has "seen it with my own eyes." Since it's hard to believe his ocular dataset is historically and internationally comprehensive, what he seems to mean is: you can tell America's better than Cuba just by looking. True.

9:33: Mr Rubio's speech is definitely a stump speech. I can't bear to watch it any longer. Any stats on independent voters? Did they all vote Republican? It seems so.

9:32: Is it me or is Marco Rubio giving a stump speech, not a victory speech?

9:32: If I am not mistaken, Marco Rubio began his victory speech by saying, in so many words, that God wanted him to win.

9:31: It'll be a while before the results from Alaska come in, and we'll have commentary on that race tomorrow. But in the meantime, I offer a note to the beleaguered Democrats around the country: whatever else happens, tomorrow morning Sarah Palin will wake up with a reduced national status. The Palin-backed candidates are being presented as tea-party candidates rather than Palin picks, and until she decides about the 2012 race, her role will be relatively muted.

9:30: Still waiting to see who will be Illinois's next senator. Will Mark Kirk eke out a victory? An equally pressing question is weighing on me. For the vast majority of his campaign, Alexi Giannoulias inexplicably wore his hair in a front flip (the kind favoured by barhoppers in diagonally striped shirts). In the final weeks of the campaign, he brought out his secret weapon, a side part. Who convinced him that he should look like a grown-up? What brought the change? Why so late?

9:27: Rand Paul's victory speech was characteristically thick with libertarian rhetoric, but I think most significant was his strong emphasis on balancing the budget and his repeated insistence that government is not the font of prosperity or a source of jobs. I expect Mr Paul to be an intellectual leader of Washington's incoming tea-party faction, and if this speech is any indication, the prospects of anything resembling a second demand-side stimulus are quite dead.

9:25: Mr Blue, I had a bit of a say about whether America really is the "freest country in the world" a few months ago. (Spoiler alert: it's not)

9:22: No surprise in North Dakota—John Hoeven, the Republican governor, has won his state's Senate contest. Byron Dorgan, a Democrat, is retiring. It was hard to find a suitable Democrat to succeed him. Mr Hoeven, in contrast, has been immensely popular, presiding over an economic boom even as the rest of the country suffered. In Washington he will probably uphold North Dakotans' favourite philosophy: the federal government should leave North Dakota alone…except when it's handing out money for infrastructure, say, or ag. In 2005 North Dakota received $1.68 of federal spending for every tax dollar it paid, according to the Tax Foundation.

9:21: The prize for least suspenseful race has to go to Charles Schumer. Kristen Gillibrand gets honourable mention, though she has to run again in two years, when she is bound to face fiercer competition. If things don't go well for Harry Reid, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Mr Schumer could well succeed him as majority leader.

9:20: Pop champagne, Speaker Boehner. CNN has just called the House for the Republicans.

9:18: So Andrew Cuomo will be governor of New York—hardly a surprise. He already has something like 600 pages of policy ready for implementation according to Jay Jacobs, head of the New York State Democratic Party. Meanwhile, Jimmy McMillan, head of, and possibly only member of, the "Rent is 2 Damn High Party", is getting to ready to "drop" an album.

9:16: A triumphant Rand Paul says that "America is the greatest, richest, freest country ever known to man." Sounds like somebody didn't read his Michael Kinsley today.

9:15: And let's not forget, I write from New York, that I will be denied the joys of living in a state governed by tea-party-endorsed, baseball-bat-wielding, porn-forwarding Carl Paladino.

9:10: Rand Paul's acceptance speech is pretty tame. No references to Aqua Buddha and he hasn't stomped on his wife's head yet.

9:07: MSNBC calls the House for the Republicans. Chris Matthews thinks John Boehner will have an easy time of it. If that's true—and if Mitch McConnell does as well—we'll know how much of the tea-party rhetoric was just rhetoric.

8:52: Speaking of Mr Manchin's marksmanship, the Volokh Conspiracy's David Kopel observes that the election results so far bode well for 2nd amendment enthusiasts.

8:49: Speaking of which, Alan Grayson just lost, and the House just got a little less crazy.

8:46: While we fixate on the Senate, since we know senators' names better, district after district is being called against Democratic incumbents.

8:41: Mr Manchin's win in West Virginia is, as I mentioned, no win for the climate, but a big emotional lift for the Democrats.

8:38: Joe Manchin wins in West Virginia. I guess we'll be seeing a lot more candidates shoot legislation they disagree with in 2012.

8:38: I should add that the two Arkansas Senate events I covered seemed synecdochic: Mr Boozman stood on a stage at a rally/fundraiser packed with paying supporters, told a story about playing Razorback football and insulted Barack Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. Ms Lincoln visited a dental-care van in rural Arkansas and toured an elementary school with an audience of a couple of teachers and a couple of journalists.

8:35: John Boozman wins in Arkansas. Shame. Blanche Lincoln did what a senator was supposed to do: she repped her district well. Arkansas is an agricultural state and she's the first Arkansan Senator to head the Ag Committee. If she sometimes seemed a bit schizophrenic in her voting patterns, well, Arkansas was the lone blue holdout in the South. It was a conservative Democratic state, and the operative word there is "was": most of its House seats will swing red this time too.

8:35: I can't believe I'm defending Ms O'Donnell, but Mr Red, I can't agree that the race should have been unlosable. Delaware has three counties, the northernmost of which is basically a suburb of Philadelphia, the southernmost of which is for weekenders from DC, with the middle being military and chicken farms. I think Mr Blue's point below is astute as anyone is going to get tonight.

8:34: Mr Red, You expect Ms O'Donnell to become an ex-vice president?

8:30: Not to fixate too long on Ms O'Donnell, lest I prove you right Mr Purple, but she lost what should have been an unlosable race and made a fool of herself doing so. She is now best associated with the words "masturbation" and "witch" and the creepiest political slogan of recent years, "I'm you." She has Dan Quayle's future, I not only hope but expect.

8:22: With respect to Mr Black, Ms O'Donnell isn't going anywhere. This was her third run for Senate; there may well be another, and if not, a commentator's post on FOX and some lucrative speaking gigs await. We'll see her again.

8:20: If I could press a button, and eliminate the most annoying faults of my friends and family, I wouldn't do it because the most irksome trait is so often a delightful and lovable trait in another guise. Republicans should think of Christine O'Donnell losing a Senate seat her primary opponent would have easily won in a similar light. Ms O'Donnell's primary win and subsequent defeat is a manifestation of the same groundswell of conservative enthusiasm without which the GOP would not now be sitting so pretty. The world in which Mike Castle is about to become a senator is not a world in which the Republicans are about to take the House.

8:20: While driving to downtown Austin to watch the results with the Texas Tribune, I was contemplating my own question, and came up with the following: 1) Texas was never much of a battleground, although it's not as heavily Republican as the national media makes it out to be; 2) as colourful as he usually is, Rick Perry seemed to figure that the race was his to lose, and only spent a little bit of time campaigning, and none with editorial boards or on the debate platform; 3) although Texas has enough tea-partiers to stock the nation's cupboards, they're accepted as a mainstream part of the political discourse, and raise no eyebrows. Takeaways for other states? If you're trying to elide all-out upsets, encourage plenty of colour and commotion at the margins.

8:12: So Richard Blumenthal has subdued pretend-wrestling impresario Linda McMahon in Connecticut. I have to admit I'm disappointed. The pro-wrestling concept "kayfabe" (google it!) is illuminating when applied to politics, and a victory for Mrs McMahon would have made a good hook for a blog post expanding on this thought. Alas.

8:10: What are the odds that Marco Rubio, who won tonight, is the next Republican vice-president?

8:07: Karl Rove on Fox: It pains him to say it of Christine O'Donnell, but "This is a candidate who is right on the issues but mishandled questions from the press." That press, damn them.

8:05: According to Fox, the weird Vietnam-liar-versus-wrestling-executive race goes the Dems' way in Connecticut.

8:00: I'm not a senator either. Turns out Christine O'Donnell is a lot like me. Her 15 minutes are over.

7:57: Kentucky's 3rd district goes for John Yarmuth, a Democrat. Ben Chandler, another vulnerable Democrat in the state, is also leading. Nate Silver sees it as "a sign that tonight might not be an apocalypse for Democrats." So they have that going for them, which is nice.

7:47: FOX tells us that even if Joe Manchin holds the Democratic seat in West Virginia, he'll vote against any energy/climate bill that's bad for West Virginia. Any bill worth the name "climate bill" will be bad for coal-heavy West Virginia. I think this one is literally lose-lose for the most important domestic piece of legislation sitting around for the next Congress to act on.

7:42: NCSL's StateVote chart, which tracks the composition of state legislatures, calls the Mississippi and Louisiana legislatures for the Dems. This matters immensely for redistricting purposes, and as red as those states are at the national and federal levels, old habits die hard on the state levels. It will be interesting to see whether these local races flip as dramatically as the national ones. My sense is they won't.

7:37: Here is my favourite real-or-fake headline of the night, from the Globe: "Kitty Dukakis's visits to Hingham polls annoy some residents."

7:35: My biggest 2010 election disappointment: how did Texas turn out to be one of the duller states?

7:31: I think it's safe to say that Mr Paul's likely win in Kentucky is a victory for Aqua Buddhists everywhere.

7:29: Rand Paul is projected to win Kentucky's Senate race. Matthew Yglesias of the liberal Center for American Progress quips: "It's been too long since we had a senator willing to stand up to the tyranny of the Civil Rights Act." It's going to be a long night for liberals, it seems.

7:25: MSNBC wins for weirdest backdrop and graphics. It looks like leftovers from the set of TRON. And whatever anchor I just watched said, "You know, we don't often associate social conservatives with the tea party," making me think the anchors are also extras from TRON.

7:20: So far, my biggest election night surprise is that I spent an hour watching Glenn Beck and found it delightful. Anyone want to call their favourite upsets in the comments?

7:16: In Indiana. Brad Ellsworth, the Democratic candidate, had waged a tough, short campaign. When Mr Bayh announced his retirement, it seemed that Democrats might be able hang on to the seat. Mr Coats, a Washington veteran and former lobbyist, is rather dull. Mr Ellsworth has moderate bona fides, including a strong pro-life record and an endorsement from the National Rifle Association. But these weren't enough, apparently, to overcome the Republican tide. In 2008 Barack Obama was able to win votes in not only Indiana's centre cities but its suburbs, too. Mr Ellsworth wasn't able to replicate his success.

I tried watching CNN but after a 20 minute debate over whether this election is a referendum on the president, filled with intelligent comments like "it is" and "it's not," I just switched to local news and decided to follow everything else online.

In a completely unscientific observation, I voted in the Indiana 9th District today around noon. I go to Indiana University and voted in a precinct that contains almost all of the Greek houses, several of the dorms, and numerous student apartments. The woman working there told me almost no one had come by to vote and she hoped to have one person on each page of her voter registration book (each page contains about 12 names) before the end of the day. There were still six hours left for students to cast ballots but it seemed unlikely, especially given the lack of enthusiasm about voting around campus. I don't believe Monroe County has begun to report yet, but if Baron Hill can't get students to turn out in the most liberal town in the district, I can't see him having much of a chance.

@Purple: Louisiana and Mississippi aren't voting for state legislators today. That's next year. And many Democrats in both states make it a point of pride to be fairly independent of the party establishment, even in redistricting. Louisiana's Speaker of the House is even a Republican despite the Democratic majority.