They're calling it the orange crush: The possibility that Jack Layton will emerge from this election with more momentum and moral authority than anyone...

WATERLOO, Ont. — In football, they call it the Hail Mary pass. Throw the ball long, hope the receiver grabs it and watch him cross into the end zone for the game-winning touchdown.

In this election, Conservative leader Stephen Harper is staking his own political future on a long pass he threw on Day 1 of the campaign.

As he emerged from Rideau Hall on March 26 to announce the launch of the campaign, he spoke in stark terms and defined what victory means on May 2: Only a Tory majority would suffice.

Otherwise, the opposition parties — a "reckless coalition" of "arch-centralists and Quebec sovereignists" — would take power following the election and ruin Canada's economy.

"The outcome of this election will impact each and every Canadian with a job to find or a job to keep; a home to buy or a mortgage to pay; a retirement to fund or a business to build," he said.

His message was clear: Trust me with a majority or watch Canada dissolve into chaos.

The gamble carries tremendous personal consequences for Harper. If voters hold him to another minority, he will be a wounded leader whose credibility is in tatters and whose future is in question.

After four elections as Conservative leader, the verdict will be clear: Many Canadians simply don't trust him with the power of a majority government.

If he wins a majority, history will treat him kindly as a Conservative success story — the man who united the political right, and then won three elections (2006, 2008 and 2011).

With a majority, he will have a full four-year mandate with which to govern the nation — more than enough time to make long-lasting change in areas such as tax policy, the justice system and foreign affairs.

Moreover, if he governs well in majority and the once-mighty Liberal party is left in ruins by next week's election, it's highly possible he would lead his party again in the 2015 campaign.

If that happens, and he wins again, Harper would go down in history as one of the country's longest serving prime ministers.

In short, depending on what voters decide Monday, Harper could be on his way to political greatness, or a bitter end to five years in power.

When the election results are counted, it will quickly become clear if Harper's strategy paid off.

Did he outfox his political rivals by putting them on the defensive over the coalition and by offering fatigued voters the promise of a four-year holiday from electoral games in Ottawa?

Or did he commit the biggest political blunder of his career? The unexpected surge in popularity of the NDP suggests that Harper may have miscalculated by drawing so much attention to the possibility of a coalition.

What if voters are running into the arms of Jack Layton precisely because they actually like the prospect of a coalition government — something they might not have been thinking, were it not for Harper?

On every day of the election, Harper has campaigned like a man possessed by one thought. At every stop — in the backyards of family homes used as backdrops for policy pledges, on manufacturing plant floors and in community centre gyms used for Conservative party rallies — Harper has hammered away at his core message.

The opposition parties are plotting to form a coalition, he has alleged, despite their denials.

"A sea of troubles is lapping at our shores," he has told his audiences, warning this is not the time for people to experiment with a coalition.

"Disaster in the Pacific, chaos in the Middle East, debt problems in Europe and all kinds of challenges — some very serious challenges — south of our border. Canada is the closest thing the world has to an island of stability and security. And we've got to keep it that way."

The only answer? A "strong, stable, national majority Conservative government." The phrase passed through Harper's lips hundreds of times.

So what if Harper doesn't get his wish, returning to Ottawa instead with a minority?

He will be under immense pressure to change his March 22 budget to make it acceptable to at least one of the opposition parties.

However, he has ruled that out, declaring there will be no compromises.

If he doesn't budge, that means one of two things will occur in the coming weeks: Either one of the opposition parties — exhausted by the campaign — will flip-flop and support the very budget they opposed last month, or they will also stand firm and defeat the government on a budget vote.

What happens then is anybody's guess. Would there be an election? Or would Gov.-Gen David Johnston invite the opposition leader — Layton or Michael Ignatieff — to form a government and try to gain the confidence of the House of Commons?

In either scenario, it's far from certain Harper will stick around to battle his opponents. In fact, it's widely expected he would resign, prompting a leadership race.

Of course, the thing about gambling is that sometimes the risk pays off. And if the Hail Mary pass works on Monday, Canadians can count on Harper to govern confidently with a majority — like a man who knows he's the boss.

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