NEW DELHI: Contrary to a view inspired by late Raj fiction, the
British valued India as much as they held Indians in contempt. The
British Empire on the subcontinent owed far more to the man who saved it
around the world, the Duke of Wellington, than to Robert Clive, who has
got excessive credit from history. Clive defeated a tottering,
self-indulgent Nawab of Bengal; Wellington buried Scindia's
ambitions at Assaye and destroyed Tipu Sultan at Seringapatnam. They
were the two most powerful Indian princes of the 19th century, perhaps
the only ones who could have checked the British. Indians, said
Wellington, were "the most mischievous, deceitful race of people
... I have not yet met with a Hindoo who had one good quality and the
Mussalmans are worse than they are". At least he was secular in his
prejudice.

When the British Raj was on its deathbed, its great champion
Winston Churchill sneered that Indians would never be able to understand
democracy. He thought that they would be a disaster and come running
back to Mother England. I shall spare you the precise quotations; we
don't want you to get unnecessarily angry on a day when there is so
much else to digest. He was not alone. In 1967, the Times of London, now
the pipsqueak of a fading power rather than a thunderer of the empire,
wrote the obituary of Indian democracy. It survived.

However, there was a growing view that the 15th general election
would leave behind just the kind of mess Churchill predicted. The Indian
voter has just proved once again that those who underestimate India do
not understand India.

The most important result of this election is that the elimination
of regional parties from national space has begun.

This was the message in north, south, east and west where Congress
expanded its space at the cost of both friends and foes. Chandrababu
Naidu will survive to fight another election, but the votaries of
Telangana have probably been marginalized out of reckoning. Congress did
better than Sharad Pawar, grew in Punjab, hammered the left, aborted
Mayawati's national ambitions and checked Mulayam Singh Yadav. In
fact, Mulayam Singh Yadav may face the humiliation of being the unwanted
guest at the party for a second time, since Congress can now afford to
sniff at the support he offers. The two regional powers that triumphed,
Nitish Kumar and Naveen Patnaik, won because of their individual
qualities rather than because of the parties they lead. Congress and the
BJP, between them, will occupy two thirds of the seats in the next Lok
Sabha. This is the real game-changer because the next general elections
will be a straight contest between these two parties in most of India.

This election was a successful base camp for a much higher ascent.
The true Congress summit is the achievement of a single-party majority
in the Lok Sabha after the next general election. When this peak was
outlined against a still bleak horizon during the Panchmarhi resolution
years ago, it seemed a thrust too high, but its moment has come. Just as
it did in this election, it will seek to grow at the expense of either
ally or enemy. Congress already had candidates in 14 seats in Tamil
Nadu; the next time, it might contest all 39. It will pressure Sharad
Pawar to merge into the parent party or perish. Mamata Banerjee in
Bengal might be more resistant, because she knows that she cannot
dominate Congress as much as she can her own party, and total power can
be very alluring. But Congress can live with a variation or two, as long
as Mamata does not through self-inflicted wounds to revive the left in
Bengal. In any case, there are great pickings elsewhere for Congress.

It will, of course, hope to exploit the anti-incumbency factor in
the BJP states in the north, particularly if the BJP goes into disarray
after its second collapse from high expectations. The last time Congress
had a majority on its own was under Rajiv Gandhi.

The restoration will be in the hands of the son, Rahul Gandhi, who
has earned his political legitimacy in this election. Sonia
Gandhi's role as leader of the party will ebb as the pace of
transition speeds up. It is highly likely that at some point there may
even be a transition in government, with Manmohan Singh making way for
Rahul Gandhi. Manmohan Singh has already done more than anyone expected
for the party, and he might prefer the comfort of retirement since he
has had a serious heart attack.

Will the BJP, suffering from a second unexpected defeat, be able to
resurrect its fortunes and face an aggressive Congress? Some things are
apparent. It will need to choose the person who can lead the party into
the next general election without much delay.

The BJP realized that development and governance were the decisive
issues. But although its leader L.K. Advani tried to define the party
around modern needs, he was tripped by the rhetoric of those who thought
that the country still wanted to hear the war cry of social conflict.
The swivel moment of the campaign came when Varun Gandhi, in a flurry of
immaturity, revived every toxic memory that Advani wanted the electorate
to forget. He compounded the mistake by glorying in its aftermath. BJP
leaders realized the danger. The Madhya Pradesh party publicly asked
Varun Gandhi to remain in UP, and not bother about the neighboring
state. But the leadership merely distanced itself from the young man,
when it should have disowned him.

This is the major lesson for the next leader of the party: India
wants peace with prosperity because Indians realize that prosperity
cannot come without peace. Narendra Modi may be a powerful and effective
leader in Gujarat, but the stamp of one defect will always mar his
future. He can be a successful No. 2 at the national level, but will
remain a divisive No. 1.

We have also just witnessed the last election of the older
generation. Youth is not just arithmetic; you have to be young in your
outlook, and be able to identify with the aspirations of those seeking a
profitable place in the international economy, as much as the poor who
feel that they are being marginalized in the domestic economy. It is
difficult to span both edges of this challenge, but no one said that
public life was easy.

Defeat can be a moment of transition, unless you succumb to
despair.

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