The files listed below as "data" contain the observations (projections and realizations) that we use to construct the error statistics. The observations for projections are dated at the date forecast, not the date when the forecasts were made. The projections are for the SPF (denoted SPFfor) and the benchmark models, as described in the narrative of the files of error statistics (Indirect Autoregressive: denoted IARfor; No-Change: denoted NCfor; Direct Autoregressive: denoted DARfor; and Direct Autoregressive with Monthly Information: denoted DARMfor). Each column of the projections corresponds to a different forecast horizon, starting with the one-step-ahead projections (denoted _Step1) and ending with the five-step-ahead horizon (denoted _Step5). The realizations are denoted Realiz1, Realiz2,...,Realiz5. They are described (along with any data transformations) in the corresponding narrative section of the PDF and TXT files. To compute a forecast error, subtract a forecast at the horizon of your choice from your choice of the realization located in the same row.