The Trump Trick: How to Make Iran Look Like It Is Complying with U.S. Demands

Iran will be loath to rock the boat with an increased tempo in its usual regional meddling and support for terrorism.

With President Trump’s decision last week to lay down a red line on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and at the same time slap more onerous nonnuclear sanctions on Iran, its clerical establishment has vowed a “severe response.” But while Tehran’s rhetoric has been threatening, its riposte is likely to be restrained due to three inconvenient realities: the Iranians need the JCPOA more than Washington; the United States has limited equities in Iran; and Iran is overextended in the region.