Forecast: It’ll be cold, but finally above zero

Issued April 9, 2018: Covering the period from April 11 to April 18, 2018

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies so far this growing season (Sept. 1 to April 4). Across most of agricultural Manitoba, most regions are near to slightly below normal, with a few spotty locations moderately below normal — the two exceptions being the southeastern and far northwestern regions, which have seen moderately high to very high amounts of precipitation. Photo:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

If you like lots of sunshine and don’t mind April temperatures closer to those usually found in February, then the last week has been perfect for you! If you are tired of the cold weather, then take heart — there are some signs of mild weather coming, it just might take a little while longer.

Cold high pressure once again dominated our weather last week, allowing for some record-breaking temperatures. The cold weather did, for the most part, keep the main storm track to our south across the Dakotas. The question for this forecast period is whether that storm track will remain to our south as a major storm system is forecast to move inland from the Pacific late this week.

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To begin this forecast period, a weak area of low pressure is forecast to slide across southern and central Manitoba, bringing with it clouds and a dusting of light snow. Temperatures should moderate ahead of this system with highs making it above freezing. Cold arctic high pressure will once again push southward behind this low, bringing a return to sunny skies on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will continue on the cool side with daytime highs struggling to make it to the freezing mark and overnight lows dropping into the -15 C range.

The big weather story starts late on Friday and into the weekend. The weather models show a strong storm system coming in off the Pacific, then intensifying as it tracks eastwards across the northern states. The latest model runs have been trending southward with this system, which would keep the precipitation south of the border. As usual, we need to keep an eye on the system as it has the potential to bring upward of 20-30 cm of snow.

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Next week looks to be milder as another area of low pressure moves in off the Pacific and tracks through the Dakotas. This low will help to pull milder air into our region on Monday, with daytime highs expected to be around +8 C. It now looks like most of the precipitation from this system will once again stay to our south. Looking further ahead, the models are not showing any new pushes of cold arctic air, which means we should continue to see our temperatures moderate toward seasonable values.