Problems with the Use of Student Test Scores to Evaluate Teachers Edward Haertel School of Education Stanford University California Educational Research.

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Problems with the Use of Student Test Scores to Evaluate Teachers Edward Haertel School of Education Stanford University California Educational Research."— Presentation transcript:

1
Problems with the Use of Student Test Scores to Evaluate Teachers Edward Haertel School of Education Stanford University California Educational Research Association Anaheim, California December 1, 2011 1

2
2 Economists, statisticians, psychometricians, and policy experts all worked together to write this EPI Briefing Paper, released in August 2010. Thanks to my co-authors for contributing to my own education on this important issue.

3
Framing the Problem Teacher quality is central to student success There is broad consensus that teacher support and evaluation need improvement ◦ Teachers need better support and targeted assistance to identify and remediate deficiencies ◦ Principals are challenged by the sheer number of teachers they must monitor and evaluate ◦ Contracts and labor laws make teacher dismissal difficult 3

5
VAM Logic If prior achievement is “held constant” by building prior-year test scores into a statistical model, then student score gains should reflect teacher effectiveness ◦ The difference between last year’s score and this year’s score represents the “value added” by this year’s teacher 5

6
Two Simplified Assumptions Teaching matters, and some teachers teach better than others There is a stable construct we may refer to as a teacher’s “effectiveness” ◦ that can be estimated from students’ test scores ◦ that can predict future performance 6 Simplified to

7
Two Simplified Assumptions Student achievement is a central goal of schooling Valid tests can measure achievement Achievement is a one-dimensional continuum Brief, inexpensive achievement tests locate students on that continuum 7 Simplified to

12
Logic of the Statistical Model What is a “Teacher Effect”? ◦ Student growth (change in test score) attributable to the teacher ◦ I.e., caused by the teacher 12

13
Logic of the Statistical Model 13 Teacher Effect on One Student Student’s Observed Score Student’s Predicted Score = — “Predicted Score” is Counterfactual – an estimate of what would have been observed with a hypothetical average teacher, all else being equal These (student-level) “Teacher Effects” are averaged up to the classroom level to obtain an overall score for the teacher.

14
Value-Added Models rely on formidable statistical assumptions, unlikely to hold in the real world 14

16
Manipulability It is meaningful to conceive of any student being assigned to any teacher in the comparison set … ◦ without changing any of that student’s pre- enrollment characteristics. ◦ Otherwise, some potential outcomes are undefined, which undermines the logical and statistical basis of the intended causal inference 16

17
No Interference Between Units “Units” here are students. “No Interference” means a student’s end-of-year test score is not affected by which other students were assigned to the same classroom ◦ Closely related to the “Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA) 17

18
Interval Scale Metric Effects for different teachers occur in different regions of the test score scale ◦ Fair comparison requires assuming that “a point is a point is a point,” all along the scale Untenable due to: ◦ Floor and ceiling effects on the test ◦ Failure to test below- (or above-) grade-level content 18

19
Strongly Ignorable Treatment Assignment We must assume that once variables in the model are accounted for, assignment of students to teachers is independent of potential outcomes ◦ In other words, a student with a particular set of background characteristics who is assigned to teacher X is on average no different from all the other students with that same set of background characteristics (with regard to potential end-of-year test score outcomes) 19

20
In or out? District leadership School norms, academic press Quality of school instructional staff Early childhood history; medical history Quality of schooling in prior years Parent involvement Assignment of pupils (to schools, to classes) Peer culture Students’ school attendance histories … 20

22
Controlling for prior-year score is not sufficient Third problem—Different trajectories: students with identical prior-year true scores have different expected growth depending on ◦ individual aptitudes ◦ out-of-school supports for learning ◦ prior instructional histories ◦ variation in summer learning loss 22 Two students’ knowing the same amount of last year’s content is not the same as their being equally well prepared to make sense of this year’s instruction

23
A small digression: Student Growth Percentiles Construction ◦ Each student’s SGP score is the percentile rank of that student’s current-year score within the distribution for students with the same prior-year score 23

24
Student Growth Percentiles Interpretation ◦ How much this student has grown relative to others who began at the “same” (prior-year) starting point Advantages ◦ Invariant under monotone transformations of score scale ◦ Directs attention to distribution of outcomes, versus point estimate 24

25
Is anything really new here? 25 Thanks to Andrew Ho and Katherine Furgol for this graphic

26
Examining the Evidence Stability of “effectiveness” estimates ◦ That first “simplified assumption” Problems with the tests ◦ That second “simplified assumption” Strongly Ignorable Treatment Assignment Professional consensus 26

27
Examining the Evidence Stability of “effectiveness” estimates ◦ That first “simplified assumption” Problems with the tests ◦ That second “simplified assumption” Strongly Ignorable Treatment Assignment Professional consensus 27

30
30 % of Teachers Whose Effectiveness Ratings Change … By at least 1 decile By at least 2 deciles By at least 3 deciles Across models* 56-80%12-33%0-14% Across courses* 85-100%54-92%39-54% Across years* 74-93%45-63%19-41% *Depending on the model

31
31 One Extreme Case: An English language arts teacher Comprehensive high school Not a beginning teacher White Teaching English I Estimates control for: ◦ Prior achievement ◦ Demographics ◦ School fixed effect

32
Teacher “effectiveness” bounces around from one year to the next Value-added estimates are extremely noisy. Consider classification of teachers into 5 categories (A-F) in two consecutive years. 32 Grade in first year: A F Grade in second year: FDCBA FDCBA Average across 5 Florida districts. Grades A-F correspond to quintiles 1-5. Source: Sass (2008). Thanks to Jesse Rothstein for the original version of this slide.

33
Many teachers indicated as effective or ineffective in one year are not for others 27% of “A” teachers one year get D or F next year. 45% get C or lower. 30% of “F” teachers one year get A or B next year. 51% get C or better. 33 Grade in first year: A F Grade in second year: FDCBA FDCBA Average across 5 Florida districts. Grades A-F correspond to quintiles 1-5. Source: Sass (2008). Thanks to Jesse Rothstein for the original version of this slide.

34
Examining the Evidence Stability of “effectiveness” estimates ◦ That first “simplified assumption” Problems with the tests ◦ That second “simplified assumption” Strongly Ignorable Treatment Assignment Professional consensus 34

39
9 th Grade English- Language Arts 9RC2.8 Expository Critique: Evaluate the credibility of an author’s argument or defense of a claim by critiquing the relationship between generalizations and evidence, the comprehensiveness of evidence, and the way in which the author’s intent affects the structure and tone of the text (e.g., in professional journals, editorials, political speeches, primary source material). 39

43
High School Biology BI6.f Students know at each link in a food web some energy is stored in newly made structures but much energy is dissipated into the environment as heat. This dissipation may be represented in an energy pyramid. 43

45
Problems With Tests Will Persist 45 PARCC and SBAC assessments aligned to the CCSS should be better than most existing state assessments, but not good enough to solve these problems ◦ Content standards are not all to blame ◦ Testing limitations arise due to (1) costs of some alternative item formats; (2) inevitable differences between teaching to the test and teaching to the standards; (3) technical challenges in measuring some key skills

46
Examining the Evidence Stability of “effectiveness” estimates ◦ That first “simplified assumption” Problems with the tests ◦ That second “simplified assumption” Strongly Ignorable Treatment Assignment Professional consensus 46

49
Does Non-Random Assignment Matter? A falsification test Logically, future teachers cannot influence past achievement Thus, if a model predicts significant effects of current-year teachers on prior-year test scores, then it is flawed or based on flawed assumptions 49

50
Falsification Test Findings Rothstein (2010) examined three VAM specifications using a large data set and found “large ‘effects’ of fifth grade teachers on fourth grade test score gains.” ◦ In addition to North Carolina, similar results have been found in Texas and Florida, as well as in San Diego and in New York City 50

51
Falsification Test Findings Briggs & Domingue (2011) applied Rothstein’s test to LAUSD teacher data analyzed by Richard Buddin for the LA Times ◦ For Reading, ‘effects’ from next year’s teachers were about the same as from this year’s teachers ◦ For Math, ‘effects’ from next year’s teachers were about 2/3 to 3/4 as large as from this year’s teachers 51

52
Examining the Evidence Stability of “effectiveness” estimates ◦ That first “simplified assumption” Problems with the tests ◦ That second “simplified assumption” Strongly Ignorable Treatment Assignment Professional consensus 52

53
Professional Consensus We do not think that their analyses are estimating causal quantities, except under extreme and unrealistic assumptions. – Donald Rubin 53

54
Professional Consensus The research base is currently insufficient to support the use of VAM for high-stakes decisions about individual teachers or schools. – Researchers from RAND Corp. 54

55
Professional Consensus VAM estimates of teacher effectiveness that are based on data for a single class of students should not used to make operational decisions because such estimates are far too unstable to be considered fair or reliable. – 2009 Letter Report from the Board on Testing and Assessment, National Research Council 55

56
Unintended Effects Narrowing of curriculum and instruction ◦ What doesn’t get tested doesn’t get taught Instructional focus on students expected to make the largest or most rapid gains ◦ Student winners and losers will depend on details of the model used Erosion of teacher collegial support and cooperation 56

58
Unintended Effects 58 “The most pernicious effect of these [test- based accountability] systems is to cause teachers to resent the children who don’t score well.” —Anonymous teacher, in a workshop many years ago

59
59 Thank you This PowerPoint will soon be available at http://www.stanford.edu/~haertel, under “Selected Presentations”http://www.stanford.edu/~haertel