WELSH farmers will wake up this morning and wonder whether they have a future.

A watershed report into the future of farming, published yesterday by the Government-appointed Policy Commission, signalled its belief that farm subsidies should be ended within a decade.

More immediately, it could leave tens of thousands of Welsh farming families perilously in debt. Support is to be switched away from food production to the environment: or robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Margaret Beckett, as the caravan-loving Rural Affairs Minister for the UK, she has shown little regard for Britain's farmers since her appointment last year.

Despite fey words of support, she has cast a cold, unemotional eye on an industry which accepts it has to change - but not without dignity.

Today the Daily Post challenges Mrs Beckett to address concerns farmers share about the direction of their industry.If a tenth of subsidies are to be switched into environmental schemes, can Mrs Beckett explain how the farmers who lose out are supposed to survive?

Amid proposals for more farm licensing, regulation, committees and advice, can she assure farmers their incomes will not be swallowed by fees for consultants, civil servants and administrators?

What reassurance can she give Welsh consumers that the switch away from domestic food production will not result in a flood of cheap, low quality foreign imports?

Why does rural ministry Defra pay lipservice to the concept of a devolved government in Wales when, in reality, it rides roughshod over Welsh farming with policies supposedly shaped for England?

Farming provides the bedrock for Wales' rural communities and culture. The two are inseparable. Yesterday's Policy Commission report - ostensibly aimed at England but in reality affecting Wales - attempted to suggest another way: farmers making a living from managing landscapes not livestock.

But behind the jargon of "horizon scanning" and "statistical benchmarking" lay the reality of broken farming businesses and rural depopulation. It is a harsh truth: farmers need public support not to line their pockets but to sustain communities and the countryside.

Contrary to popular opinion, many would even welcome a subsidy-free industry, providing the rest of the world plays by the same rules.

Currently this is not possible. Without support, Welsh farming would collapse and we would all be exposed to global food imports, produced to uncertain welfare and hygiene standards.

For all its image problems, the quality of Welsh food remains amongst the highest in the world. We pay for this reassurance through taxes. But yesterday's report, by Sir Don Curry, proposed cutting back this support and channelling it into environmental work, much of which farmers already do for free.

So, Mrs Beckett, spare a thought for Welsh farmers. Their future lies not just in freemarket economics, but in emotional ties to the land and to their communities: and you can't measure that on a balance sheet.

The recommendations outlined in yesterday's report by the Policy Commission were immediately condemned by farm unions and Welsh politicians.

Bob Parry, President of the Farmers' Union of Wales, said the report was "dangerous" could see Welsh agricultural production halved over the next decade.

Although the Commission was set up to look at future food and farming strategy in England, it also made a sweeping policy recommendation for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, each of which have their own devolved administrations and rural strategies.

The National Assembly published its own Future of Farming strategy last November but one influential farming figure said it was now effectively redundant.

In an unprecedented move the FUW, NFU Cymru, NFU Scotland and the Ulster Farmers' Union joined together to issue a combined statement blasting the Commission for straying into devolved agricultural matters.

The report, authored by Sir Don Curry, former head of the Meat and Livestock Commission, says modern farming is " unsustainable" and urges the UK Government to " dismantle the current regime of price supports and production subsidies as quickly as possible".

Until that happens, it wants the Government to push for increased "modulation" up to 10pc - taking a tenth of direct production subsidies and diverting this money into rural development and environmental schemes.

This is what has caused so much alarm in the devolved administrations. By recommending that the Government increases the modulation rate to 10pc by 2004, the farmers' unions believe the Policy Commission is undermining strategies already drawn up in the devolved regions.

Modulation, which attracts match-funding, was introduced in the UK last year. The rate started at 2.5pc and, under current arrangements, will rise to 4.5pc in 2005/6. The new proposals, claim farm unions, will now take a big chunk away from farmers' pockets when they can least afford it.

Although the scheme is match-funded, farmers doubt the Government's commitment to sustain this and in any case complain the money would simply be channelled into expensive consultancy projects.

"There are already so many consultants giving us advice we are virtually operating on a one-to-one basis with them," said Mr Parry.

In a joint statement issued on behalf of the four farming organisations, he added: "We support increased spending on rural development and the environment, but are completely opposed to this way of paying for it.

"To make such a major recommendation shows a serious failure to understand devolution. In Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, where agriculture plays an even more important role than in England, the Policy Commission has no right to stray into these areas."

The report recommends farmers live in a subsidy-free world and suggests farmers be given help and business advice to negotiate the change.

It suggests ways of helping farmers to collaborate, shorten the food chain and develop "value-added" products.

It also wants to encourage consumers to become more food literate so they are prepared to pay more at the supermarket. Organic farming should also be encouraged and retailers given tax breaks for stocking locally-produced food.

There should be better labelling on food, a reduction in pesticides, and more schemes to encourage healthier eating, the report said.

But Mr Parry said this policy, without intervention from the World Trade Organisation, would simply encourage supermarkets in import food, drive domestic farmers out of business and place Britain at risk from future food shortages.

"These recommendations, if implemented, would change the face of farming forever," he said.

NFU Cymru President Hugh Richards said the Commission's recommendations would disadvantage UK farmers over major trading partners.

He added: "The farming industry is already in a dire state financially, with average farm incomes at only #4,000 a year.

"Modulation would take away money that farmers simply cannot afford to lose.

"We are fully committed to rural development and environmental measures in Wales as can be seen by Tir Gofal, the Welsh agrienvironmental scheme being heavily oversubscribed.

"There is a move towards greater powers for the Welsh Assembly to deal with agricultural matters and this interference undermines our efforts to manage our own agricultural affairs."

Some proposals outlined in the Commission's report have been welcomed by Welsh farm unions. They include planning help for diversification, extra marketing and processing grants, rural enterprise grants, meat import controls.

Peredur Hughes, President-elect of NFU Cymru, said: "It's not all bad news but the modulation proposals, if implemented, would be a body blow to Welsh agriculture."

Last night, Welsh Rural Affairs Carwyn Jones adopted a more cautious approach but sounded a note of alarm over modulation.

He said: "I understand the concern that farmers are likely to have about this. "It will require a great deal of careful consideration, and discussion both within the National

Assembly and with the farming unions and others. It is an issue which needs to be seen in the wider context of CAP reform."

In his report, Sir Don says modern farming has become "dysfunctional" because subsidies have caused the industry to "become detached from the rest of the economy and the environment." In future, farmers must be paid for being custodians of the countryside, he said.

He added: "The countryside has sustained substantial damage as a result of modern farming techniques. It is is not the farmers' fault (and we hope the Government will make this crystal clear, as a first step to regaining their confidence).

"They have been responding to public signals. It is unfair to vilify them if the survival of their business means they cannot go on looking after the environment for free."

Plaid Cymru MP Elfyn Llwyd said he would be raising the issue with ministers.

"This undermines the strategy that has been drawn up by the devolved administrations. I want to know whether this was a misunderstanding by officials about their remit or whether it's simply interference.