Projections

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As always, Sporting News' weekly Field of 68 is a projection of what the NCAA Tournament selection committee would do based on what's happened so far this season.

Note: Automatic bids, listed in parenthesis, are given tot he team with the fewest conference losses (through Sunday's games). In the case of ties, the designation is given to the team with the best Pomeroy rating. RPI numbers are from CBSSports.com.

Florida. 29-2, 18-0 SEC. Rankings: RPI 2, Pomeroy 3. Last week: 1 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 6-2. Need to know: Like Arizona and Wichita State, the Gators are locked into the top seed line. Should they avoid a loss and win the SEC tournament, they’re likely to be the No. 1 overall seed.

Arizona. 28-3, 15-3 Pac 12. Rankings: RPI 1, Pomeroy 1. Last week: 1 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 10-2. Need to know: The Wildcats will be a No. 1 seed, though the loss at Oregon might knock them from the No. 1 overall seed. Not a big deal. Their resume is stellar, and they’ve adjusted to the potentially devastating Brandon Ashley injury.

Villanova. 28-3, 16-2 Big East. Rankings: RPI 4, Pomeroy 6. Last week: 2 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-3. Need to know: The Wildcats rise up to this fourth spot by virtue of being the only contender for the last No. 1 seed not to trip in the final weeks. Even with the two blowout losses to Creighton, though, they have an excellent resume — 15 top 100 wins and a solid SOS (RPI 23).

Wisconsin. 25-6, 12-6 Big Ten. Rankings: RPI 6, Pomeroy 12. Last week: 1 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 7-3. Need to know: The loss at Nebraska knocks the Badgers out of the fourth No. 1 seed for now, but should Villanova lose the Big East tournament and Wisconsin win the Big 10 tournament, things could change. Also, the Badgers are 7-3 vs. RPI top 50, but 12-4 against the RPI top 70. Lots of quality wins on the resume.

Kansas. 23-8, 14-4 Big 12. Rankings: RPI 3, Pomeroy 8. Last week: 2 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 12-7. Need to know: The Jayhawks’ collection of victories, in and out of the rugged Big 12, is beyond reproach — 16 top 100 wins, including a neutral-court Duke kicker — but they’ve lost eight times, including four of their past six road games. Even if they win the Big 12 tournament, a No. 1 seed seems like a stretch at this point.

Michigan. 23-7, 15-3 Big Ten. Rankings: RPI 9, Pomeroy 10. Last week: 3 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 8-5. Need to know: Michigan won what many considered to be the best conference in the country by three full games. That will carry weight with the committee, more than enough to get past the seven overall losses (yes, even the Charlotte one).

Syracuse. 27-4, 13-4 ACC. Rankings: RPI 10, Pomeroy 11. Last week: 2 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 6-2. Need to know: The home loss to Georgia Tech takes the Orange out of the No. 1 seed conversation. That win at Florida State was big, though, and with a solid ACC tournament performance, they could wind up on the No. 2 seed line.

Virginia. 25-6, 16-2 ACC. Rankings: RPI 12, Pomeroy 5. Last week: 2 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-4. Need to know: The Cavaliers were a long shot for the No. 1 seed before the loss at Maryland to end the regular season. It’s not going to happen now, but a spot on the next line down is still a real possibility.

Duke. 24-7, 13-5 ACC. Rankings: RPI 8, Pomeroy 7. Last week: 3 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 6-4. Need to know: Duke has three losses to teams that won’t even turn on the TV on Selection Sunday (Notre Dame and Clemson, plus Wake Forest last week). Even should the Blue Devils win the ACC tournament, that might not be enough for a No. 2 seed.

Louisville. 24-5, 13-3 AAC. Rankings: RPI 22, Pomeroy 2. Last week: 5 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 6-5. Need to know: Because of their horrid noncon schedule — best win was against Southern Miss — winning at SMU and beating UConn at home was absolutely essential to hopes of getting a high seed. The Cardinals did that, though this No. 3 seed likely is their ceiling, unless more crazy happens in other conference tournaments.

San Diego State. 27-3, 16-2 Mountain West. Rankings: RPI 14, Pomeroy 23. Last week: 3 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-2. Need to know: The Aztecs added their third RPI top 50 win this week, a home comeback victory against New Mexico, to go with a neutral court win vs. Creighton and one on the road at Kansas. There’s not much depth, though — 20 of the 27 wins are against teams with an RPI worse than 100.

Cincinnati. 26-5, 15-3 AAC. Rankings: RPI 15, Pomeroy 18. Last week: 4 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 7-5. Need to know: The Bearcats are one of only five teams without a loss to any team with an RPI worse than 50, and that matters. A No. 3 seed is still possible.

Creighton. 24-6, 14-4 Big East. Rankings: RPI 7, Pomeroy 9. Last week: 3 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 6-3. Need to know: Maybe the Bluejays were just trying to help their new league with the recent losses to Big East bubble teams Xavier and Georgetown. With 13 top 100 wins, they won’t fall below a four seed.

Iowa State. 23-7, 11-7 Big 12. Rankings: RPI 11, Pomeroy 28. Last week: 4 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 9-6. Need to know: The nonconference wins against Michigan and Iowa will play an important role in the selection committee’s discussions about the Cyclones. They have a solid SOS (RPI 14) and the loss at West Virginia is the only one to a team that isn’t an at-large lock.

Michigan State. 23-8, 12-6 Big Ten. Rankings: RPI 24, Pomeroy 16. Last week: 4 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 6-4. Need to know: The Spartans haven’t won back-to-back games since mid-January. I know, injuries and such, but there’s just too much inconsistency for this team to land anything higher than a four seed.

North Carolina. 23-8, 13-5 ACC. Rankings: RPI 21, Pomeroy 22. Last week: 4 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 5-4. Need to know: The winning streak ended at 12 games with a loss at Duke. No shame there. This squad could make a long tournament run, but losses to Belmont, UAB and Wake Forest means they’ll likely have to start from a four or five seed.

Oklahoma. 23-8, 12-6 Big 12. Rankings: RPI 20, Pomeroy 27. Last week: 6 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 8-5. Need to know: The Sooners are the No. 2 seed in the Big 12 tournament, and a good showing could mean jumping up a few seed lines. With zero noncon wins against RPI top 75 teams, though, there’s a ceiling.

Texas. 22-9, 11-7 Big 12. Rankings: RPI 32, Pomeroy 41. Last week: 5 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 7-8. Need to know: The loss at Texas Tech to end the regular season was unfortunate, but Texas still has a very solid resume, and that noncon win at North Carolina looks better every day.

VCU. 24-7, 12-4 Atlantic 10. Rankings: RPI 13, Pomeroy 15. Last week: 7 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-4. Need to know: The computer numbers are excellent, and the win Saturday against Saint Louis was impressive, but VCU is just 9-6 against RPI top 100 teams. Hard to see that getting rewarded with a seed on the four line.

Ohio State. 23-8, 10-8 Big Ten. Rankings: RPI 23, Pomeroy 14. Last week: 8 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 5-4. Need to know: The roller coaster year continued right to the end. In their final three games, the Buckeyes lost at Penn State and Indiana, then beat Michigan State at home. Yep.

New Mexico. 24-6, 15-3 Mountain West. Rankings: RPI 16, Pomeroy 31. Last week: 6 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-3. Need to know: The Lobos let a big lead at San Diego State slip away this weekend. With it went any shot of a top-five seed; not enough quality wins.

UCLA. 23-8, 12-6 Pac-12. Rankings: RPI 27, Pomeroy 29. Last week: 5 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 5-4. Need to know: That loss at Washington State (RPI 212) almost certainly cost the Bruins their shot at a top-four seed.

Iowa. 20-11, 9-9 Big Ten. Rankings: RPI 49, Pomeroy 17. Last week: 5 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-8. Need to know: The Hawkeyes have just two wins in 10 games against RPI top 25 teams and have lost five of six games heading into the Big Ten tournament. They’re still locked into an at-large berth, but their seed will be much different than it would have been a few weeks ago.

Kentucky. 22-9, 12-6 SEC. Rankings: RPI 19, Pomeroy 24. Last week: 7 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-5. Need to know: The Wildcats completely collapsed at South Carolina, placing an unwanted spotlight on their less-than-stellar resume. The 2-5 record vs. RPI top 50 teams (2-5 vs. Pom top 50, too) is pretty anemic. They’re not in danger of missing the tournament, but they’re not a threat to steal a top-five seed, either.

Memphis. 23-8, 12-6 AAC. Rankings: RPI 29, Pomeroy 38. Last week: 8 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 5-7. Need to know: As the selection committee tries to figure out the AAC teams, it won’t help that Memphis was swept by both Cincinnati and Connecticut.

Massachusetts. 23-7, 10-6 Atlantic 10. Rankings: RPI 17, Pomeroy 49. Last week: 8 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 6-3. Need to know: The Minutemen still have eight nonconference wins against teams in the RPI top 100, and that will keep them solidly in the at-large field.

Baylor. 21-10, 9-9 Big 12. Rankings: RPI 34, Pomeroy 32. Last week: 10 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 8-8. Need to know: The Bears erased all doubt this week, beating Iowa State at home by double digits and beating Kansas State on the road, where the Wildcats almost never lose. A good Big 12 showing possibly gets them into the 6-7 seed range.

Oklahoma State. 20-11, 8-10 Big 12. Rankings: RPI 40, Pomeroy 19. Last week: 9 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 5-10. Need to know: Since Marcus Smart returned, the Cowboys have beaten Kansas and Kansas State and taken Iowa State to overtime on the road. They’re getting into the tournament, despite the sub-.500 conference record.

George Washington. 23-7, 11-5 Atlantic 10. Rankings: RPI 30, Pomeroy 40. Last week: 9 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-5. Need to know: The neutral-court win against Creighton in December anchors GW’s resume, along with a home win against VCU. Aside from those two, a 6-2 mark against RPI 50-100 teams is solid, too.

Oregon. 20-8, 8-8 Pac 12. Rankings: RPI 25, Pomeroy 25. Last week: 11 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-5. Need to know: The Ducks locked up their at-large bid with wins against Arizona State and Arizona this week.

Kansas State. 20-11, 10-8 Big 12. Rankings: RPI 47, Pomeroy 45. Last week: 7 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 7-7. Need to know: The Wildcats stumbled into the Big 12 tournament, getting blown out at Oklahoma State and losing at home to Baylor. They’ll make the tournament easily but won’t get a good seed.

SMU. 23-8, 12-6 AAC. Rankings: RPI 45, Pomeroy 26. Last week: 7 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-5. Need to know: The Mustangs aren’t in danger of missing the tournament, but losing to Louisville and Memphis hurt any chances of getting above the 8/9 game.

Arizona State. 21-10, 10-8 Pac 12. Rankings: RPI 37, Pomeroy 36. Last week: 8 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-6. Need to know: If the Sun Devils were trying to make Selection Sunday a nervous day, they succeeded by losing at Oregon and at Oregon State last week.

Xavier. 20-9, 10-6 Big East. Rankings: RPI 48, Pomeroy 44. Last week: 9 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-5. Need to know: Two weeks ago, the Musketeers beat St. John’s and Creighton. Last week, they lost to Seton Hall and Villanova. It would be best not to depart the Big East tournament after just one game.

Stanford. 19-11, 10-8 Pac-12. Rankings: RPI 43, Pomeroy 42. Last week: 9 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-8. Need to know: Stanford is closing in on the first NCAA bid of coach Johnny Dawkins’ tenure with the team, but losing three in a row didn’t help. At least the Cardinal escaped with a home win against Utah in the finale.

Pittsburgh. 22-7, 10-6 ACC. Rankings: RPI 46, Pomeroy 20. Last week: 10 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 1-6. Need to know: The absolute best element of Pitt’s resume is that the Panthers don’t have a truly bad loss (at home to N.C. State wasn’t great, though). Other than that? Nada. Bupkis. At least they avoided a damaging loss at Clemson on Saturday.

Colorado. 21-10, 10-8 Pac-12. Rankings: RPI 31, Pomeroy 56. Last week: 10 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 5-7. Need to know: The win at Stanford was just Colorado’s second road win since Spencer Dinwiddie’s injury, a huge step in the right direction.

Dayton. 20-9, 10-6 Atlantic 10. Rankings: RPI 39, Pomeroy 51. Last week: on the bubble. Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-5. Need to know: The Flyers have been impressive lately; they’ve won nine of their past 10, including wins against Saint Louis, Massachusetts and George Washington. That’s how you secure a bid.

Nebraska. 19-11, 11-7 Big Ten. Rankings: RPI 41, Pomeroy 47. Last week: on the bubble. Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-7. Need to know: The Cornhuskers have won seven of eight, including wins against Michigan State and Wisconsin. No truth to the rumor that the term “Nebrasketball” will help their at-large chances, though.

Gonzaga. 26-6, 15-3 West Coast. Rankings: RPI 26, Pomeroy 21. Last week: 11 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 1-4. Need to know: The Bulldogs have more losses to RPI 150+ teams (two) than wins vs. RPI top 50 teams (one). They are in serious danger of missing an at-large bid, even in this year with a weak bubble. Winning the WCC Tournament, of course, would make this all academic.

Tennessee. 18-11, 9-7 SEC. Rankings: RPI 44, Pomeroy 13. Last week: 12 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-5 Need to know: Tennessee’s resume is hanging on nonconference wins against Xavier and Virginia that look better now than they did a few weeks ago, and crushing Missouri, another bubble team, in the regular-season finale certainly didn’t hurt.

Arkansas. 21-10, 10-8 SEC. Rankings: RPI 62, Pomeroy 55. Last week: 10 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-3. Need to know: The Razorbacks’s six-game winning streak ended with an embarrassing 25-point loss at Alabama in the finale. Still, they should be OK. Should be.

Saint Joseph's. 21-9, 11-5 Atlantic 10. Rankings: RPI 42, Pomeroy 59. Last week: 11 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-5. Need to know: The Hawks didn’t do anything in the nonconference portion of the schedule (best win is Vermont), but wins against VCU and UMass, combined with the overall weakness of the bubble, should be enough. Losing at home to La Salle in the finale didn’t help any, though.

Providence. 20-11, 10-8 Big East. Rankings: RPI 54, Pomeroy 53. Last week: 12 seed. Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-6. Need to know: They beat Marquette in double-overtime of a must-win game, then lost at Creighton in the finale. No shame there. The Big East Tournament opener against St. John’s is just huge, though.