'Waitress moms' are turning on to Romney. Mitt is moving in the swing states

As we head towards the second presidential debate, liberals across America need to adjust to the idea that Mitt Romney might just win this thing. Hippies had better start stockpiling medical Marijuana. Peaceniks, brace yourselves for the draft! And as for the Occupy crowd – you kids might want to try looking for a job. Come January 2013, Wall Street will be occupying you…

USA Today reports that Romney is now 5 points in the lead among likely voters in the swing states. He leads 12 points among men and draws even (48 to 48 per cent) among women. The reason for the change is Romney's performance in the first debate, which drew a record audience. USA Today speculates that women – particularly blue collar, “waitress moms” – ignored the contest until October and are only now paying attention. Democratic pollster Celinda Lake puts it this way: “Women went into the debate actively disliking Romney, and they came out thinking he might understand their lives and might be able to get something done for them.” The debate redefined Mitt Romney as a political entity.

And the turnaround has happened because Romney has reassured the swing voter that while he is a traditional Republican, he isn’t crazy. A lot was written about his humour and authority in the first debate, but equally important was his pledge to protect Social Security, Medicare and financial regulation. There were enough verbal cues in there to keep the Tea Party on side, but the rest of country was reassured to see a more centrist brand of Republican – someone who would look at home in the country club, RINO stable of Dwight Eisenhower or George HW Bush.

Two things have reinforced that image in the last week. First, Romney pledged not to pursue federal anti-abortion legislation. This actually isn’t the huge u-turn that some have made it out to be (the pro-life campaign is largely local now rather than national) but it does defuse a lot of the culture war fuss that Obama was making during his convention. It makes it harder to portray Romney as an antediluvian conservative who would swap sex ed classes for chastity belts.

Second, Paul Ryan won the vice presidential debate just by turning up. Biden’s giggling theatrics were bullying, distracting and unpopular. The radical liberals loved it – the waitress moms did not. Simply by being polite and mature, Ryan cemented the ticket’s image as reasonable. That’s all the voters are looking for this season: a reasonable alternative to Barack Obama. It’s only a pity that it’s taken until October to discover that it was the Republican nominee all along.

Accepting the momentum in these numbers, Romney doesn’t need a knockout blow to win Tuesday night’s debate. He simply has to duck and jab, just like Paul Ryan did, and score a draw. The debate is Romney’s to lose. Given all the rumours flying around that Obama is going to be “aggressive,” Mitt should let the Prez be as aggressive as he wants. It certainly didn’t work for Biden.