Thant Myint-U
, a former UN official, Fellow of Trinity College, Cambridge, and author of 'Where China meets India' , tells
Shobhan Saxena
why suddenly Burma has become important for Asia's two emerging powers
The subtitle of your new book says "Burma and the new crossroads of Asia" . What are these crossroads and where does your country sit on it?

For thousands of years, Indian and Chinese civilizations have been separated not only by the Himalayas and Tibet, but also by the vast and virtually impassable lands that once existed between Bengal and the Yangtze valley.

Burma and the adjacent highlands have traditionally been a barrier to interaction between what is now South and East Asia. It's this basic geography that is now being overturned. A series of massive infrastructure projects, new railways and highways , will very soon bring China into much greater and direct contact with the Bay of Bengal than ever before. Its impact will be as profound as the opening of the Suez Canal.

But India and China do not see eye to eye on many issues. How will that affect your country?

Nothing will be more important for my country's future than its relationship with India and China. Burma's top asset is not its natural gas or teak or gems but its position in between Asia's two great civilizations . There is today the real potential for Burma to become a new and dynamic crossroads, and this would be wonderful thing not just for the people of Burma, for India and China as well. But this would require a changed Burma, one that ends its armed conflicts and becomes more open and better governed. If this doesn't happen , and Burma remains impoverished and unstable, it could instead become a source of ever increasing tension and perhaps even conflict between Asia's biggest rising powers. Progress in Burma is important for the entire region.

China has been very active economically in Burma, but the West has almost abandoned it. Is the West responsible for pushing Burma into China's arms?

Western sanctions and boycotts have been wholly counterproductive. For over a quarter-century Burma's military regime sought to isolate itself from the rest of the world. Sanctions have only helped to strengthen that isolation, reinforce xenophobic mentalities, prevent the emergence of an independent middle class, and as a result severely weaken the chances for sustainable democratic change. Western sanctions have also created a vacuum, one that China has been eager to fill. For any poor country, being next to the world's greatest industrial revolution should be an advantageous thing, but in the absence of other investment, other economic interaction, it's led to an extremely imbalanced relationship. A backlash is not impossible and this would be a tragedy for everyone.

But India too is showing more interest in Burma's gas fields and other business opportunities than its transition to democracy...

A genuine and sustainable transition to democracy is not going to come about because of foreign support, from India or anywhere else. There have been several successful democratic transitions in Asia, for example in South Korea and in Indonesia . None came about through the mix of economic embargoes , aid cut-offs and megaphone diplomacy that some governments have tried against Burma for decades. There is nothing wrong with India looking for business opportunities there. What Burma needs is not an exploitative relationship, or investments that fuel corruption or destroy the environment. But what it absolutely does need is the sort of trade and investment will help create jobs, raise incomes, build new skills and transfer technology.

Will Aung San Suu Kyi be able to mobilize people against the military junta?

There is no more military junta. It was dissolved and most of its members retired. What's surprising are the actions of the new president, who has moved more vigorously down a reformist path than any would have imagined, placing poverty reduction at the centre of his policies, moving to overhaul the economy, declaring war on corruption, and even reaching out to the opposition, including Suu Kyi. The momentum is positive, but it can be reversed. The next few months may be the most important time in Burmese politics since the days of Lord Mountbatten.

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