On another forum, a member posted this interesting take on the latest events:

mel wrote:An interesting take on it from the guardians comments section, no idea if its correct, suppose we'll find out sooner than later

Interesting post in the comments of the Guardian yesterday:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legislation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

The point is that if the government does not now trigger article 50, then unfortunately, the electorate will try to remove them and God help us, it will be UKIP in charge (the far right in other words).

Brexit will cause a lot of pain - the results of Brext were obvious before the referendum, but alas either the remain campaign were not vocal enough about them, or else the people who voted leave just didn't hear the message (or ignored it).

It is no surprise that there is now talk of needing a general election before the end of the year - although I don't know if they will call one (there is nothing so far as I am aware that says a general election has to be called when a PM stands down).

There are huge problems now for all MPs - whether the MP was in the leave or remain camp, then they will be expected to vote as directed in the referendum by the people they represent. If they don't then they may not be re-elected.

If the electorate have any sense then they should hold the MPs who were in favour of leaving accountable for the promises and statements made during the referendum, but alas we will not know whether those promises will be kept until after the election (if one is held).

Should the government trigger the Article 50 exit from the EU?

They have a clear mandate to do so, so YES it is political suicide by any leader to do so, but also it is political suicide not to.

If they don't it leads to an even longer period of uncertainty for all concerned - the EU will not be happy and might instead decide to throw the UK out. In any case, I can't see the EU being very open to friendly negotiations on trade deals.

It is just a shame that no-one thought to discuss these issues before the referendum. I was fairly vocal about them, but alas the out voters all just concentrated on immigration and would rather just cross their fingers that everything would turn out ok.

If Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK so that they can remain as part of the EU, then I don't blame them as their electorate were clearly in favour of remaining.

What needs to be addressed now is all of the uncertainty and ill-feeling across the country. We need to work together to take the country forward and ensure that the country does not turn into a Fascist regime where immigrants are targeted and harassed. The quicker we do so, the better for us all.

There is one thing becoming very clear. The Brexiteers lied to win the referendum. Obvious from their backtracking on promises now they realise they've won and can't honour their promises.

That bus or wagon, whatever it was, which said use the EU membership fees for the NHS, for example. We can now look forward to hundreds of millions if not billions more for the NHS. Can't we??? If this does not happen, and the government is run by anyone connected to Vote Leave, they will be held to the promise by everyone in this country and if it does not happen they ought to be banned from office and imprisoned for lying to obtain public office and interfering with democratic process. Since several of them (Boris included) have made it clear they won't abide or be bound by it, the evidence is there. If lies like this are allowed, the vote is invalid anyway.

No, the new government will be run as a right wing ideological exercise unless the country mobilises to put a firm grip on the politicians, and they will probably consider themselves free to do so in the absence of any effective opposition anyway.

vanpeebles wrote:To be fair politicians have a history of lying to get votes

My point exactly.

I voted remain, after nearly being persuaded to vote leave by friends and family, so I can see this from all sides (I agreed and disagreed with things said by both sides).

However, I'm in danger of sounding like a sore loser, so having said my bit I will leave the subject alone now (especially as it's in a QL chat area as opposed to off-topic area). Besides there's a small moutain of QL PD software to wade through which is infinitely more interesting than politics

vanpeebles wrote:To be fair politicians have a history of lying to get votes

I voted remain, after nearly being persuaded to vote leave by friends and family, so I can see this from all sides (I agreed and disagreed with things said by both sides).

Me too - I was a remainer in what felt like a sea of leavers. It's a very complex situation, and personally I'm not sure it's something that people should even be voting on, in this kind of way at least.

But that again is another conversation, I think. It's done now, we have to figure out the best way forwards for now and maybe my daughter's generation will undo this at some point in the future

robsoft wrote:But that again is another conversation, I think. It's done now, we have to figure out the best way forwards for now and maybe my daughter's generation will undo this at some point in the future