Last month, I analyzed three statistics that, according to statistician Nate Silver, best predicted presidential success for incumbent-party nominees and challengers. Donald Trump got the slight edge in that analysis, but economic statistics in recent weeks moved sharply in Clinton’s favor.

The two major metrics that had been pointing to a Trump victory, at the time, were the ISM manufacturing index--or a survey of confidence at American manufacturing firms--and the unemployment rate, which in September was higher than at the beginning of the year. Since World War Two, there hadn’t been an incumbent party candidate that won the election in a year that the unemployment rate was higher on election day than on January first.

But Clinton had plenty of metrics in her favor, as nearly all the indicators other than the unemployment rate showed a quickly improving economy that was filtering down to average Americans. Here are five charts from Torsten Slock, Chief International Economist at Deutsche Bank, that illustrate this point:

Workers are as Comfortable Quitting Their Jobs as Before the Crisis

Layoffs are Lower Than They’ve Been in 16 Years

Young People Are Finally Feeling the Economic Recovery

The Strong Labor Market is Causing the Share of Workers Outside the Labor Force to Fall

Wages are rising

This last chart is particularly important for understanding the strength of the headwinds Trump overcame. Many metrics are suggesting that Americans wages are broadly rising at a pace that hasn’t been seen in nearly a decade. One example is the data above from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and another was a recent Census Bureau survey showing the fastest wage gains last year since the 1960s. But the increase was recent, and wages had lagged for much of the past eight years, and that likely hurt Clinton.

And given that wages are the most direct interaction most workers have with the economy, it’s not surprising that voters were looking for change.

But what about manufacturing data? Usually the single-best predictor of incumbent-party success is the trend in the ISM index in an election year, according to an analysis by Nate Silver. And if that metric is rising, then Silver found, the candidate of the incumbent party can count on a win. So the ISM readings as of October showing the manufacturing sector was growing seemed to be predicting Clinton would win.

Nonetheless, given the fact that manufacturing employment is so much lower today than it was when Silver started compiling his sample, one could have logically expected that manufacturing relative strength, as slight as it was, would affect the electorate less today than it traditionally has. And with more manufacturing workers on the sidelines than ever, those workers ended up being votes for Trump.

Many Republican observers argued that 2016 was a change election, pointing to statistics that show a large percentage of Americans believing the the country is headed in the wrong direction. It didn’t seem to matter that most Americans, outside those in the manufacturing sector, have fewer economic reasons to believe this.

In the end, when you look at all the charts what you see is the drops were too big and rebounds were too low. And the patience, it appears, for many American had run out.

So while it only became obvious on Tuesday night to most of us a large, and perhaps decisive share of Americans were clamoring for something different at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, a deeper look at the economic data should have told us that a change, like Trump, was coming all along.

]]>http://fortune.com/2016/11/09/donald-trump-president-hillary-clinton/feed/0Donald Trumpchristopherrmatthewsscreen-shot-2016-11-08-at-2-33-38-pmscreen-shot-2016-11-08-at-2-33-49-pmscreen-shot-2016-11-08-at-2-36-12-pmscreen-shot-2016-11-08-at-2-34-41-pmscreen-shot-2016-11-08-at-2-32-57-pmpng-5266-fullWhy Young Men are Turning to Vicodin and Video Games over Workhttp://fortune.com/2016/10/17/work-force-participation-vicodin-and-call-of-duty/
http://fortune.com/2016/10/17/work-force-participation-vicodin-and-call-of-duty/#respondMon, 17 Oct 2016 17:44:24 +0000http://fortune.com/?p=1828985]]>It’s a bit of a stereotype for one generation to complain about the next’s work ethic. But the charge that Americans today are afraid of a hard day’s work may have some evidence to back it up.

Even before the financial crisis, the labor-force participation rate for Americans has been falling. Part of the reason is that the workforce is getting older and an older population means more retirees and fewer workers. But for about twenty years, both younger Americans and workers of prime-age, or those 25 to 54, are joining the workforce at lower rates than they have in generations past.

While the magnitude of the shift is not great--just a few percentage points--it still represents roughly 2 million fewer workers of prime age in the labor force than would be if participation rates remained at their late-90s peak. The causes of this decline in participation then is a very important question for economists to answer: Reversing this trend would not only make the country richer but likely make the lives of these would-be workers and their families far more stable and fulfilling. Survey data shows that men out of the labor force--like unemployed men in the labor force--spend less of their time happy, more of their time stressed, and more of their time sad than men with jobs.

The latest attempt at an answer comes from economist Alan Krueger of Princeton, who presented a paper Friday at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s annual conference on Friday entitled “Where Have all the Workers Gone?” Krueger finds that while 80% of the decline in the overall participation rate can be explained by the aging of the workforce, there are several trends that are forcing down the participation rate of prime age men in particular.

Two of the most interesting explanations? Video games and drugs, in particular opioids. The drugs explanation is derived from the fact 43% that working-age men out of the labor force report poor health at a much larger rate than other men, and that 44% of this group reported taking pain medication on a regular basis. Two-thirds of the medication takers were taking prescription medications, and though we can’t know for sure whether these medications are addictive opioids, it’s likely that a large share are, given the four-fold increase in prescription of these drugs since 1999.

We also don’t know whether these workers are being kept out of work by dependency on drugs, or whether use of these drugs is merely the result of pain that would keep these workers out of of the labor force anyway. But data on social security disability use shows a doubling of growth in use of that program since 2000, suggesting that some workers would perhaps decide to work through whatever pain they have if job opportunities were better.

Another hypothesis for why men are staying out of the workforce is video games. Krueger highlights research that shows that over the past 15 years there is a correlation between young men spending less time in school or at work and the steady improvement in video game technology. What’s more, in the past decade and a half, time spent playing video games by young men not in the labor force nearly doubled.

In addition, surveys show that as technology has improved, so has the enjoyment people report from playing video games. And in theory if the enjoyment derived from video games increases, the compensation from work both in terms of satisfaction and pay would have to improve similarly to prevent people leaving the workforce.

All that may suggest why raising the participation rate of even prime age working men has been tougher in this recovery that people suspected. They’re not only needs to be paying jobs, but better paying ones at a time when wages overall have generally flatlined. For this reason, Krueger suggests policies like raising the earned income tax credit or increasing the minimum wage would be effective ways to increase the incentives for young men to work.

But whatever your policy solution, the trend is clearly a disturbing one that affects both individual Americans and the economy as a whole. Call of Duty, anyone?

]]>http://fortune.com/2016/10/17/work-force-participation-vicodin-and-call-of-duty/feed/0E3 Gaming Conference Begins In Los Angeleschristopherrmatthewslabor-participation-25to54What’s Holding Back the Housing Market? Not Enough Construction Workershttp://fortune.com/2016/09/06/housing-construction-worker-shortage/
http://fortune.com/2016/09/06/housing-construction-worker-shortage/#respondTue, 06 Sep 2016 05:16:38 +0000http://fortune.com/?p=1786419]]>The drumbeat of hammers echoes most mornings through suburban Denver, where Jay Small, the owner of company that frames houses, is building about 1,300 new homes this year.

That’s more than triple what he built a few years ago, when “you couldn’t buy a job” in the residential construction industry, he said.

Now, builders can’t buy enough workers to get the job done.

Eight years after the housing bust drove an estimated 30% of construction workers into new fields, homebuilders across the country are struggling to find workers at all levels of experience, according to the National Association of Homebuilders. The association estimates that there are approximately 200,000 unfilled construction jobs in the U.S. – a jump of 81% in the last two years.

The ratio of construction job openings to hiring, as measured by the Department of Labor, is at its highest level since 2007.

“The labor shortage is getting worse as demand is getting stronger,” said John Courson, chief executive of the Home Builders Institute, a national nonprofit that trains workers in the construction field.

The impact is two-fold. Without enough workers, residential construction is trailing demand for homes, dampening the overall economy.

And with labor costs rising, homebuilders are building more expensive homes to maintain their margins, which means they are abandoning the starter home market. That has left entry-level homes in tight supply, shutting out may would-be buyers at a time when mortgage rates are near historic lows.

Nationwide, there are 17% fewer people working in construction than at the market peak, with some states – including Arizona, California, Georgia and Missouri – seeing declines of 20% or more, according to data from the Associated General Contractors of America.

The labor shortage is raising builders’ costs – and workers’ wages – and slowing down construction.

Small, the Denver builder, estimates that he could construct at least 10% more homes this year if he had enough workers. But he remains short-staffed, despite raising pay to levels above what he paid during the housing bubble a decade ago.

“It’s getting to the point where you’re really limited in what you can deliver,” Small said. “We lost so many people in the crash, and we’re just not getting them back.”

The average construction cost of building a single family home is 13.7% higher now than in 2007, even as the total costs of building and selling a house – a figure that includes such items as land costs, financing and marketing – are up just 2.9% over the same period, according to a survey by the National Association of Homebuilders.

The problem is accentuated by strong demand for newly constructed homes, with sales reaching a nine-year high in July.

Private companies say that they are having a hard time attracting workers, and they are often forced to give employees on-the-spot raises to prevent them from going to competitors. Carpenters and electricians are often listed as the most in-demand specialties.

Tony Rader, the vice president of Schwob Building Company, a general contractor in the Dallas area, said his company has started handing out flyers at sporting events, churches and schools in hopes of luring more people into the field.

“The biggest problem I face every day is where are we going to find the people to do the work,” he said, adding that it’s becoming increasingly common for his company and others to turn down projects.

Dallas contractors are fighting over the limited supply of workers as three major mixed-use projects are going up right next to each other on the so-called “$5 billion mile” in Frisco, a northern suburb. Meanwhile, the metropolitan area is adding about 30,000 newly built homes annually.

With fewer workers, contractors are becoming wary of signing new work contracts, especially as many of them include fines for not completing a job by a designated date.

“I’ve got two lawsuits right now where it may cost us mid-six-figures because there’s not enough labor out there to get it done,” said one contractor in the North Dallas area who declined to be identified.

Lawyers in hot residential markets say that it is becoming increasingly common for construction companies to try to negotiate for more time.

“Subcontractors are having a hard time staffing up,” said Edward Allen, a Denver attorney who said he has seen more lawsuits over project delays in the past two years.

Colorado alone will need 30,000 more workers in the construction field in the next six years, a number that does not account for those who will retire, according to a study by the Association of General Contractors.

The state passed a bill last year pledging $10 million over three years to fund free training for plumbers, electricians and carpenters.

Yet Michael Smith, who heads a Denver-based nonprofit that administers the training, said that he can’t fill the seats. High schools are focused on preparing students for college, ignoring those that may be better suited for vocational work. Students may be put off by construction’s reputation as a dangerous, cyclical field, he said.

“We’ve so demonized working with your hands in this country,” he said. “We’ve got a booming economy, and we can’t keep up with the pace of growth.”

Students who go through the four-week program are all but guaranteed a job paying $16 an hour or more immediately, with the possibility of commanding $80,000 or more in annual income after five years without taking on any student debt, he said.

On-the-job training is also a common path for new workers. Eduardo Salcido – a 25-year-old concrete finisher working at a 232-home Toll Brothers subdivision going up in the Denver suburb of Broomfield – said that he received on-site training after entering the construction field as a painter.

He has earned one raise since beginning the training two years ago and is now certified as a semi-skilled finisher.

“The money’s not bad,” he said.

For more on the U.S. housing market, watch Fortune’s video:

Homebuilders are increasingly desperate to bring back in fully skilled laborers such as Greg Lewis, a 43-year old journeyman carpenter in St. Louis. After struggling to find work in 2010, Lewis started making leather goods at home and selling bags, belts and wallets online. He now operates his business fulltime under the name Made Supply Co.

Even though he’s making less than he did in construction, Lewis is not tempted to go back into a field that is marked by job insecurity, he said. His former co-workers have gone on to work in warehouses or a local General Motors plant, and most are choosing not to return to their old jobs even as contractors offer higher wages.

“Guys couldn’t wait around for their next job, and now they don’t want to go back to a field that could turn on them,” he said. “It’s either hot or cold, and you just can’t trust it.”

This week brings the beginning of a new month and a wide range of important economic data, led by Friday’s July employment report. Meanwhile, corporate earnings season is still in high gear, with Procter & Gamble PG and Tesla Motors among the major companies reporting quarterly updates. And, also on Friday, the world’s eyes will turn to Brazil for the Rio de Janeiro Summer Olympics, where athletes will compete for gold and officials will hope to allay the many concerns over the city’s preparedness for the massive event.

Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead.

1. July employment report

On Friday, the Labor Department will release its preliminary figures for July’s employment growth, with the government expected to report an increase of 175,000 new jobs added last month. That bump would keep the country’s unemployment rate steady at 4.9%. In June, the U.S. labor market added a very strong 287,000 jobs, which came after surprisingly weak growth in May. The Labor Department had initially reported job growth of 38,000 positions in May, but later even revised that number down to only 11,000.

2. U.S. economic data

A strong July jobs report could be a boon for the stock market, which is coming off a week of mixed results after the U.S. economy showed weak growth in the second quarter. Aside from the employment report, a raft of new economic data set to be released this week including manufacturing data that is expected to show that sector was steady in June. The Commerce Department is also likely to report that consumer spending increased by 0.3% in June, while the U.S. trade deficit likely ticked upward to $43 billion from $41.1 billion.

Consumer products behemoth Procter & Gamble is expected to report fourth-quarter revenue and profit that beat Wall Street’s predictions on Tuesday. As Fortune reported in a recent magazine feature, the company that makes everything from Tide detergent to Crest toothpaste has been working to cut costs and consolidate its massive stable of consumer brands. On Wednesday, Tesla Motors could post second-quarter losses that are greater than analysts expected, as billionaire founder Elon Musk deals with a range of issues that include the fatal crash of a customer who was using the electric automaker’s Autopilot feature, as well as criticism from shareholders over Musk’s plans to merge Tesla [forutne-stock symbol=”TSLA”] with SolarCity. And, on Thursday, Viacom is expected to report disappointing third-quarter revenue and profit figures. The troubled media giant continues to face a corporate governance battle involving the family of media mogul Sumner Redstone that has weighed on the company’s earnings, while Viacom has also been hurt by disappointing performances at the box office as the company considers selling off a major stake in film studio Paramount Pictures.

The U.K.’s central bank will announce its latest monetary policy decisions on Thursday. Lawmakers have called for further stimulus in the wake of the economic turmoil caused by the U.K.’s historic decision to leave the European Union in June--a move that sent global markets into turmoil and precipitated a decline in the value of the British pound. The Bank of England is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate from its current level of 0.5%.

5. 2016 Summer Olympics

The opening ceremony for the Summer Olympics kicks off in Rio de Janeiro on Friday night, following months (if not years) of concerns that Brazil is not prepared to host the major event amid issues with shoddy infrastructure, security concerns, and fears over the Zika virus (not to mention a Russian doping scandal). Fortune wrote last week about the underwhelming returns for Olympic host cities, who spend billions of dollars to attract athletes and tourists from around the world, only to cede the majority of the games’ revenue to the International Olympic Committee while often being left with no use for brand new buildings and arenas. Meanwhile, ComcastCMCSA is certainly benefitting from the games already, as the telecom giant said earlier this year that its NBCUniversal unit surpassed $1 billion in ad sales around this year’s Olympics.

--Reuters contributed to this article.

]]>http://fortune.com/2016/07/31/week-ahead-news-august-1/feed/0Press Conference Marking Two Years to Go to the Rio 2016 Olympics Opening CeremonyhuddlestontomMay Jobs, Oil, and NBA Finals—5 Things to Watch in the Week Aheadhttp://fortune.com/2016/05/29/week-ahead-news-memorial-day/
http://fortune.com/2016/05/29/week-ahead-news-memorial-day/#respondSun, 29 May 2016 16:55:26 +0000http://fortune.com/?p=1677687]]>Hello friends and Fortune readers.

This week starts a day late thanks to the long Memorial Day weekend, as markets are closed in the U.S. on Monday. Once the markets open again, investors will look to maintain the momentum from last week’s strong stock gains. Potential market-movers this week include Friday’s monthly U.S. employment report, which could shed some light on the Fed’s next moves, as well as an update on European rates. Meanwhile, some of the world’s leading oil producing countries meet to discuss crude prices and the final two teams in the NBA and NHL playoffs begin their respective championship rounds.

Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead.

1. U.S. employment report

The Labor Department will issue the latest monthly employment report on Friday. The data is likely to show another increase of around 160,000 jobs in May, which would put the past month on par with the very modest improvements the labor market made in April. It’s possible, also, that the recent Verizon workers’ strike could negatively affect May’s employment numbers. Two straight months of underwhelming employment gains could be a sign that the hiring pace is beginning to cool down, though May’s unemployment rate is still expected to tick down slightly to 4.9%.

2. U.S. stocks

With markets closed on Monday in the U.S., investors will look for stocks to continue their recent rebound on Tuesday after last week saw the biggest gains in weeks. A week after squeaking out a win to halt a three-week losing streak (despite another losing week for the Dow), the major U.S. indexes posted stronger results last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining more than 360 points, or 2%. The S&P 500 finished the week up 2.2% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.4%. This week, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s jobs report, along with other economic data showing the health of the manufacturing sector as well as consumer spending figures. A surprisingly strong employment report on Friday could stoke investors’ concerns that the Federal Reserve

3. European interest rates

Leaders from the European Central Bank will meet on Thursday in Vienna to discuss monetary policy for the region and recent stimulus programs. Following the meeting, ECB President Mario Draghi will address the public is likely to announce that the central bank will keep the region’s benchmark rates unchanged at zero, while also discussing the ECB’s inflation targets and plans to implement the latest stimulus measures Draghi announced in March.

4. OPEC

On Thursday, member countries from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)--which generates more than 40% of the world’s total crude oil--will meet in Vienna. A potential deal to bolster global oil prices by freezing output fell apart in April over Iran’s refusal to cap its production. The price of crude oil has rebounded from lows below $30-per-barrel earlier this year, but prices still remain down more than 50% from their levels two years ago due to global oversupply.

5. NBA and NHL final series

The fight for hockey’s top prize begins on Memorial Day with a Monday-night matchup of the Pittsburgh Penguins and the San Jose Sharks in the first game of the NHL’s Stanley Cup Finals. Meanwhile, the NBA Finals also begin this week, as LeBron James again looks to bring a championship to Cleveland. Last year’s NBA Finals (between James’ Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors) averaged nearly 20 million viewers per game--the most since Michael Jordan’s last season with the Chicago Bulls. That was good news for Walt Disney DIS, which broadcasts the league’s championship round on its ABC network (as part of a $2.7 billion-per-season contract with the NBA that also includes games on ESPN and Time Warner ‘sTWX TNT). Compare that deal to the NHL’s deal with Comcast’s CMCSA NBCUniversal, which pays a reported $200 million each year to air hockey games, including the Stanley Cup Finals, which averaged roughly 5.5 million viewers per game during last year’s series.

--Reuters contributed to this report.

]]>http://fortune.com/2016/05/29/week-ahead-news-memorial-day/feed/01280-LeBronhuddlestontomStocks, April Jobs, and the Kentucky Derby — 5 Things to Know for the Week Aheadhttp://fortune.com/2016/05/01/week-ahead-news-may-2/
http://fortune.com/2016/05/01/week-ahead-news-may-2/#respondSun, 01 May 2016 19:01:29 +0000http://fortune.com/?p=1642917]]>Hello friends and Fortune readers.

The first week of May brings a report on April’s employment situation that, along with another round of major corporate earnings, could affect whether or not U.S. stocks start off the month on a solid note. Meanwhile, Democratic and Republican voters in Indiana head to the polls for that state’s primary votes and horse racing’s Triple Crown kicks off in Kentucky.

Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead.

1. April jobs

Despite last week’s news that the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in two years in the first quarter, the nation’s labor market has remained resilient. On Friday, the latest monthly employment report from the Labor Department is expected to show that U.S. employers added 200,000 jobs in April, which is slightly lower than March’s gains. The national unemployment rate likely remained unchanged at 5% even.

2. U.S. stocks

The stock market closed lower on Friday, finishing down for the week as tech industry stocks were hit hard by disappointing earnings reports from the likes of AppleAAPL, Microsoft MSFT, TwitterTWTR. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite dropped by 2.7% last week, while both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were down more than 1.2% apiece. Still, despite ending the month on a sour note, April marked the third straight month of gains for U.S. stocks. This week, investors will look for a strong start to May with the monthly jobs report on tap along with quarterly earnings reports from a handful of major companies in the media and pharmaceutical industries.

3. Earnings: Fox, Pfizer, Time Warner

Twenty-First Century Fox FOX reports its third-quarter financial results on Wednesday and the media giant now run by James Murdoch is expected to post a bump in revenue that beats Wall Street’s forecasts following a quarter in which the company’s film division succeeded with hit movies Deadpool and The Revenant. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Pfizer PFE is likely to report slightly better first-quarter sales, thanks to the success of new cancer and arthritis treatments. And, Time Warner TWX is expected to post first-quarter revenue that outpaces analysts’ expectations, while the latest earnings report from DreamWorks Animation DWA will come a week after the company announced its $3.8 billion sale to Comcast’s CMCSA NBCUniversal.

It’s not exactly another Super Tuesday, but the next big presidential primary contests will take place in Indiana this Tuesday, as Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the respective frontrunners for the GOP and Democratic party, look to strengthen their positions with the number of state primary votes dwindling ahead of this summers national conventions.

5. Kentucky Derby

On Saturday, horse racing fans will gather at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. for the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby, which marks the first of three legs of the sport’s American Triple Crown. In fact, last year’s Derby winner, American Pharoah, went on to win the Triple Crown, becoming only the 12th horse ever to do so and the first since 1978. The winner of this year’s Kentucky Derby is slated to receive a roughly $2 million purse for its owners, who will also likely reap multi-million-dollar rewards in future stud fees for the winner.

--Reuters contributed to this article.

]]>http://fortune.com/2016/05/01/week-ahead-news-may-2/feed/02015 Kentucky DerbyhuddlestontomHere’s Why You Should Be Happy the Unemployment Rate Is Risinghttp://fortune.com/2016/04/01/unemployment-rate-rising-jobs/
http://fortune.com/2016/04/01/unemployment-rate-rising-jobs/#respondFri, 01 Apr 2016 16:25:40 +0000http://fortune.com/?p=1610282]]>The U.S. economy had another great month in February, at least when it comes to adding jobs.

American employers added 215,000 positions to their payrolls last month, bringing the average job increase for the year to more than 200,000 per month, or more than double what is needed to keep up with the growth of the population.

At the same time, though, the unemployment rate actually went up, from 4.9% to 5.0%. So what’s the deal?

First, the unemployment rate and the headline new jobs numbers are actually derived by two separate surveys. The unemployment rate is derived from a survey of households, and the new jobs figure is derived from a survey of businesses and other employers, commonly called the establishment survey. The establishment survey is much more comprehensive and therefore more trusted by economists and investors. But since it doesn’t poll actual workers, you can’t use it to figure out what percentage of the workforce is unemployed.

But the survey of households actually showed even higher job growth, 246,000, than the survey of businesses. So why did the unemployment rate rise? It’s because an even larger number of people, 396,000, joined the labor force than found jobs. And the growth of the labor force is accelerating:

This is great news for the U.S. economy. A topic of intense debate among economists is what the size of the labor force would be absent the effects of the great recession. The labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of people 16 and older who are part of the labor force, has been trending down for nearly twenty years:

The conventional wisdom in the economics community is that the labor force participation rate would have continued to decline even if the great recession never occurred, because as the nation ages the share of retired workers would grow. But just how much of the decline is due to natural forces and how much is because the economy is still weak and unable to provide good-paying jobs is open for debate.

But the recent uptick in the participation rate is evidence that this trend might just be partially reversible. And that’s a good thing because the more people can and want to work, the richer the country will be, and the more tax revenue will be available to fund programs to boost growth further and to care for those who are unable to work.

For Fed chair Janet Yellen, determining what the actual potential of the U.S. labor force is critical. It’s the Fed’s mandate to promote maximum employment while keeping inflation low and steady. But what is maximum employment? These numbers indicate that as the labor market improves, more folks are re-joining a labor market that they fled because they thought there simply weren’t jobs for them. If Yellen and her Fed colleagues determine that there are millions more such workers out there, it would justify keeping interest rates low for a long time.

On the other hand, measures of inflation have been creeping up slowly along with the labor force participation rate. “Since early 2015, wage inflation has risen by about 0.6% and annual job growth has slowed by about 0.4%,” Jim Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist & Economist at Wells Capital Management points out in an email. “This may simply be a coincidence, but more likely higher labor costs are impacting the pace of job creation.”

If Paulsen is right that higher labor costs will soon slow job growth, than the labor market may already be at full capacity, and the Fed would be wise to continue raising interest rates soon.

Markets open again on Monday following a three-day holiday weekend and a week of moderate losses that put an end to U.S. stocks’ five-week winning streak. This week, investors will have their eyes on what should be another strong monthly jobs report--on Friday, April 1 (no April Fool’s!)--as well as upcoming comments from Fed chair Janet Yellen and a series of economic data reports. Meanwhile, world leaders will gather in Washington, D.C. to discuss the threat of nuclear terrorism and sports fans look ahead to this coming weekend, when the remaining few college basketball teams battle it out for a shot at March Madness glory.

Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead.

1. March jobs report

The national unemployment rate is likely to remain steady for another month, as Friday’s monthly employment report from the Labor Department is expected to show an increase of roughly 205,000 jobs in March. Those gains would follow February’s gains of 242,000 jobs while holding the unemployment rate at its eight-year low of 4.9%.

2. Fed’s Yellen speaks

Investors will be watching on Tuesday, when Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen delivers a speech at an Economic Club of New York event. Yellen’s remarks could offer some hints regarding the central bank’s plans for future interest rate hikes. Some leaders within the Fed have recently advocated against Yellen’s dovish stance, arguing in favor of more immediate hikes. Also of interest to investors this week will be the release of additional economic data, including consumer spending data, on Monday, while the Institute for Supply Management will report its national manufacturing index on Friday.

How investors react to Yellen’s remarks, along with the new economic data and monthly employment numbers, will likely decide whether or not U.S. stocks are able to rebound from last week’s moderate declines, which halted what had been a five-week winning streak.

3. Nuclear Security Summit

Dozens of world leaders will gather in Washington, D.C. starting Thursday to discuss nuclear terrorism prevention, as President Barack Obama and the U.S. State Department host the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit. Obama will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the summit, as the two leaders intend to discuss cooperation, especially with regard to keeping tabs on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, as well as other areas where the two countries have had disagreements recently, including cybersecurity.

4. Earnings: BlackBerry, Carnival

Most major corporations have already reported their latest quarterly earnings, but a handful of companies of some interest to investors will post new quarterly figures this week. Carnival CUK, the world’s largest cruise ship operator, reports first-quarter results on Wednesday. Investors will be interested to hear if the company has any updates to its 2016 forecast as well as Carnival’s recently announced plans to launch the first cruises to Cuba in decades. On Friday, BlackBerry BBRY is likely to post more losses when it reports fourth-quarter results. After years of losing out in the smartphone market to rivals such as Apple’s AAPL iPhone and Android GOOG phones, BlackBerry’s software revenue has seen improvement, but not enough to offset declining legacy fees. However, the company’s new Priv smartphone runs on Android software and launched in several countries last quarter.

The remaining four teams in both the men’s and women’s NCAA tournaments will be decided heading into this coming weekend. The men’s Final Four takes place in Houston over the weekend, with the women’s final games to be played in Indianapolis. Every year, March Madness generates more than $1 billion in advertising revenue, while more than $9 billion in bets were expected to be placed on this year’s tournament.

Wall Street stock futures are facing another bloodbath this morning after China’s stock market plummeted 7% in less than half an hour in a rapidly curtailed trading session (see story here for more). European markets are broadly down by around 3%. Crude oil prices fell to a new 12-year low on fears over Chinese demand, before recovering some poise at just over $33 a barrel.

Today’s must-read story is from Fortune‘s Shawn Tully and it looks at why investors in Apple AAPL are concerned about the tech giant’s future, which has caused the company’s shares to dip more than 20% over the past six months.

Here’s what else you need to know today.

1. Uber to settle over privacy violations

After more than a year of investigating Uber’s privacy practices, New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman is reportedly expected on Thursday to announce a settlement over the ride-hailing app’s use of its “God View” tool to access customers’ usage history without permission. The tool reveals an aerial view of all Uber drivers and their passengers in a specific area. Under the settlement, Uber will pay fines worth $20,000 for its failure to immediately report unauthorized third-party access to the information, according to Buzzfeed.

2. Walgreens earnings

The country’s biggest drugstore chain operator, Walgreens Boots Alliance WBA, is expected to report first-quarter sales below Wall Street's estimates. The company is still waiting for regulators to approve a planned $9.4 billion acquisition of smaller rival Rite Aid after the Federal Trade Commission requested additional information from the companies last month. Investors will be interested in hearing any updates on the deal’s outlook for regulatory approval.

3. Constellation Brands earnings

The alcoholic beverage company reports third-quarter results today after raising its full-year profit forecast in October. Constellation Brands STZ, which makes Corona and Modelo beers along with a variety of wines and spirits, has said it saw strong sales of its Mexican beer brands in the most recent quarter, while the strong U.S. dollar helped with production costs in Mexico.

4. Weekly jobless claims

The U.S. Labor Department is expected to report a dip in the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week. The number of new jobless claims likely fell by 12,000 last week to 275,000--a total that falls well below the benchmark level of 300,000 and reflects a steadily improving job market.

5. NYC’s first medical marijuana dispensary opens

Roughly a year-and-a-half after state lawmakers enacted a law allowing for the sale and regulation of medical marijuana, the first medical pot dispensary is opening in New York City on Thursday. Operated by Columbia Care, the dispensary is located on 14th St. near Manhattan’s Union Square and it will serve patients who are eligible under New York’s strict medical marijuana regulations. State laws require that patients seeking certification to buy medical marijuana must suffer from a handful of severe, sometimes debilitating, diseases that include cancer, AIDS and multiple sclerosis.

-- Reuters contributed to this article.

]]>http://fortune.com/2016/01/07/top-business-news-january-7/feed/0Inside A Walgreen Co. Store Ahead Of EarnshuddlestontomHow Spain Wound Up with One of The Worst Job Markets in the Worldhttp://fortune.com/2015/12/01/spain-job-market/
http://fortune.com/2015/12/01/spain-job-market/#respondTue, 01 Dec 2015 18:30:31 +0000http://fortune.com/?p=1451891]]>Soon after Spain's December 20 national elections, the next Prime Minister will have to deal with one of the country's great recurring problems: how to stop Fernando de Zavala Carvajal from leaving.

De Zavala had built a fairly impressive resume by 2012. A Spaniard by nationality and fluent in English from attending high school in the U.S., De Zavala held internships at Ernst & Young, JPMorgan, and L'Or?al while studying economics at Madrid's Universidad Carlos III.

And so, despite Spain's economic crisis, he was confident that he would find a job when he returned to Madrid after finishing college at New Zealand's University of Otago. But after interviewing with 14 companies--many multiple times--all he got was a bank that said it wanted to hire him but couldn't say when, where, or in what job, and an engineering firm that said it would have a job for him ... in six months.

"I just wanted to do something," says De Zavala, 26. "You can imagine that my self esteem was not very high."

So De Zavala got on a plane to Shanghai, where he'd been offered an unpaid internship at the local branch of the Spanish Chamber of Commerce.

A two-track economy

It's perhaps little surprise that Spain's unemployment rate shot up after its real estate bubble popped in 2008. But the slowness of its return to normal levels and the rates of youth and long-term unemployment have been persistent thorns in Spain’s side. Despite its status as one of the fastest growing EU economies, Spain’s unemployment rate is 21.6%, the highest in the EU after Greece, and 47.7% of Spaniards under 25 in the job market (i.e. not studying) are jobless.

A good part of those problems can be blamed on one thing: Spain's bizarre labor contracts.

“Spain can brag of having the worst labor market on the planet,” says Javier D?az-Gim?nez, professor of economics at IESE Business School. “It's very hard to find labor markets that have been able to break the 20% unemployment barrier three times in the last 30 years.”

For economists like D?az-Gim?nez, the causes are as obvious as they are intractable. Historically, Spanish workers have had open-ended labor contracts that are very rigid and very generous when it comes to layoffs. Under the dictatorship of Francisco Franco, laid off workers received 60 days of pay for each year worked; today, even after a host of labor market reforms, they still get 33 days per year (or 20 if the employer is losing money).

Such labor rules have helped create an economy that is less than dynamic, to put it nicely. And so, to give companies some flexibility without angering unions and workers, Spain’s government liberalized the use of temporary contracts in 1984. Lasting a maximum of two years (after which the employee has to move on or be hired permanently), the contracts offer little protection, low layoff payouts, and usually dismal pay.

The two-track labor market, or “duality,” has split Spanish workers into castes and has created a system where companies have little motivation to bring on young people--or anyone, really--as permanent employees. It also encourages employers to create precarious, one-off jobs and discourages them from investing in training, because such employees are temporary. So far this year, almost 92% of the 15.4 million labor contracts signed in Spain have been temporary; about one in four contracts are for seven days or less.

The system also creates a volatile market where employers dump their temporary employees at the first sign of economic downturn. That's why Spain's unemployment has spiked much more than other European countries, says Marcel Jansen, a professor of economics at the Universidad Aut?noma de Madrid. "Duality is one of the main causes of the dismal performance of the Spanish labor market."

Spain’s labor market has also skewed its economy toward industries that are best served by temps, says Jos? Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, deputy director of the Foundation of Applied Economic Studies (FEDEA). It is no surprise that tourism and construction--both heavy users of temp workers--have long been star industries in Spain. Almost one in four employed Spaniards are on temporary contracts, 10 points higher than the EU average and higher than every EU country but Poland.

The single contract

In 2009, D?az-Gim?nez and Jansen were among a group promoting labor market reform through what was known as the Manifesto of the 100 Economists. The central idea was to end labor market "duality" by all but eliminating temporary contracts and putting every worker on the same unified contract. This contract would offer workers more protection than the temporary contracts but less layoff money than the current long-term agreements, maybe 10-12 days per year worked, says D?az-Gim?nez.

The idea seems to be gaining political traction. The economic guru of the upstart Ciudadanos party, Luis Garicano, signed the Manifesto. And the party--which will likely have great influence in Spain’s parliament after the December elections--has a single contract in its economic platform.

Meanwhile, political parties are beginning to pay attention to Spain’s other giant labor problem--the need to train and aid the 2.1 million people who, according to Jansen, have been unemployed for over two years and lack marketable skills.

“Clearly, this is a system of labor relations that is completely dysfunctional, that must be radically reformed,” says D?az-Gim?nez. “[But] it will be really difficult to change unless we get a truly reformist political party that has weight in parliament.”

Home in Shanghai

About six months after leaving Spain, De Zavala got a call from the engineering firm he'd interviewed with. They wanted to offer him a job at a processing plant two hours from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for about EUR1,800 ($1,900) a month.

But it was too late. After his internship at the Spanish Chamber of Commerce ended, he’d found an account manager job at a Shanghai-based Internet startup, which paid him more.

A few months later, he and a friend founded IntuuChina, a relocation firm that matches young people with internships and jobs in China. So far, they have placed 286 people, 35% of whom are from Spain.

"I think the best move I did was to move," he says, lamenting the state of his home country. "They haven't been flexible, they haven't been able to adapt to give young people a chance. In the long term, it will mean Spanish companies are outdated and extremely boring to work with."

That failure has at least had one positive effect, according to De Zavala.

"The positive side is that there's been a boom in entrepreneurship in my generation," he says. "That's the silver lining in this whole sad story."

]]>http://fortune.com/2015/12/01/spain-job-market/feed/0Spanish Job Center Ahead Of Employment FiguresimountJust How Bad is the Job Market Anyway?http://fortune.com/2015/11/05/unemployment-rate-interest-rate-janet-yellen/
http://fortune.com/2015/11/05/unemployment-rate-interest-rate-janet-yellen/#respondThu, 05 Nov 2015 19:43:54 +0000http://fortune.com/?p=1409634]]>Friday’s jobs report could very well be one of the most consequential since the runup to the 2012 election.

That’s because it will be one of the few remaining data points that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee will have before they decide whether or not to begin the process of raising interest rates at their upcoming meeting December 15th and 16th.

Friday’s report will follow the disappointing numbers released earlier this month, when the Labor Department estimated that the U.S. economy added just 142,000 new jobs, below expectations of at least 200,000. The report also revised down previous month’s estimates, meaning that the U.S. has added, on average, 198,000 jobs per month versus 2014’s rate of 240,000. Another lackluster reading could throw a wrench in Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s increasingly apparent desire to begin the rate hike process next month.

So what do economist think will happen tomorrow?

The consensus estimate is 182,000 new jobs, reflecting the fact that economists expect job growth to slow somewhat as the unemployment rate and labor market slack continues to shrink. If job growth and revisions to previous months surpass this number, expect the market to continue to cautiously lean towards predicting a December rate hike.

What about wage growth?

Here’s where things get a little bit more complicated. The Federal Reserve is basing the argument for a rate hike on something called the Phillips Curve, which says that as the unemployment rate falls, wages should rise as workers become more scarce. The increase in worker pay should then filter through to the rest of the economy, causing prices to rise. This theory is why the Fed is thinking about raising rates even as inflation has consistently fallen below its 2% annual target, because the central bank believes it needs to get ahead of rising inflation that a falling unemployment rate will cause.

The problem is, we’re just not seeing any evidence or faster wage growth or inflation. And if tomorrow’s job report shows no signs of real wage growth (which is what economists predict it won’t), the Fed’s case for a rate hike will start to look more faith-based than empirically driven.

And it could mean there’s a lot more labor-market slack than a 5.1% unemployment rate would imply

In 2014, 12 per cent -- close to one in eight -- of US men between the ages of 25 and 54 were neither in work nor looking for it. This was very close to the Italian ratio and far higher than in other members of the group of seven leading high-income countries: in the UK, it was 8 per cent; in Germany and France 7 per cent; and in Japan a mere 4 per cent.

Even as the official unemployment rate has fallen, the labor participation rate even for workers in their prime has remained frustratingly low. Why exactly these absent workers are waiting on the wings is a bit of a mystery. Wolf posits several possible explanations -- the relatively high cost of childcare in the United States, higher participation rates for older workers relative to Europe, and the lack of affordable housing in the most economically vibrant cities in the United States.

Whatever the reason for the elevated slack in the U.S. labor market, one obvious solution would be faster economic, productivity, and wage growth. The presidential race under way shows how differently the Republican and Democratic parties would seek to achieve these goals. But after 8 years of central bank stimulus, it’s become pretty obvious that Janet Yellen can’t do it all on her own.

Wall Street stock futures are higher despite Federal Reserve board chairwoman Janet Yellen signalling late Wednesday that an interest rate hike in December is on the cards. The dollar touched a three-month high against the euro earlier as the markets digested the news, while crude oil futures have sagged since a report showing U.S. oil stocks rose again last week.

Today’s must-read story is from Fortune‘s Clifton Leaf and it looks at how institutional investors are becoming more and more likely to listen to activist investors like Bill Ackman, Carl Icahn, and Nelson Peltz in order to get a better idea of how they think a company can improve.

Here’s what else you need to know to start the day.

1. Ripple effects from Metrojet bomb

U.S. and U.K. officials now suspect that a terrorist bomb was responsible for the crash of a Russian airliner in Egypt at the weekend. The U.K., the Netherlands and others have banned all arrivals from the resort of Sharm-el-Sheikh, where the bomb is suspeted to have been brought on board. The news is a body blow to the tourist industry that is vital to Egypt’s economy. It’s also a setback for President Vladimir Putin, whose intervention in the Syrian appears to have been the trigger for the attack.

2. Disney earnings

The “Mouse House” will report its fourth-quarter and full-year results this afternoon and Walt Disney DIS is expected to fall short of analysts’ revenue estimates after declining subscriber totals forced the media giant to lower its cable networks’ profit forecast over the summer. Much like some of its rivals, Disney will likely need to rely on especially strong results in other business sectors -- such as movies and theme parks -- to help balance out its struggling cable business.

3. Kraft Heinz reports

Investors will be interested to hear about the progress of the high-profile merger of two companies which, together, own so many iconic brands -- from Heinz ketchup and Kraft macaroni to Oscar Mayer and Philadelphia cream cheese. The Kraft Heinz KHC merger completed over the summer and the company then moved forward with plans to cut costs and jobs in order to save at least $1.5 billion annually by 2017, so investors will want to hear about how effective cost-cutting measures have been so far. Sales at both the Kraft and Heinz divisions dipped in the second quarter and there is some concern that the company could be hurt by the strong U.S. dollar in emerging markets.

4. Weekly jobless claims

The Labor Department is expected to report that the number of Americans who filed applications for unemployment benefits last week increased by 2,000 claims, to 262,000. The total number of weekly claims has remained relatively low for several months and has stayed below the benchmark level of 300,000 for much of the year.

5. Adidas turns a corner

German sportswear company Adidas seems to be waking up from its long U.S. nightmare. The company raised its profit and revenue outlook for the year Thursday after announcing better-than-expected results for the third quarter which drove its shares up 5.5% to a new 18-month high.

-- Reuters contributed to this post.

]]>http://fortune.com/2015/11/05/5-things-disney/feed/0Metrojet Crash Sinai Russia 2015huddlestontomTo Lure Applicants, Employers Are Talking Up Benefits, 401ks in Job Adshttp://fortune.com/2015/11/03/job-postings-benefits-401k/
http://fortune.com/2015/11/03/job-postings-benefits-401k/#respondTue, 03 Nov 2015 19:42:22 +0000http://fortune.com/?p=1405228]]>As the labor market in the U.S. tightens, employers have turned to perks like paid time off, maternity leave, and signing bonuses--rather than higher wages in some instances--as the carrots they dangle to attract new talent.

According to data from job search engine Indeed, mention of “benefits” in employment ads in the United States has spiked in the last two years or so.

Employers are “seeing the challenge of attracting interest in jobs,” says Tara Sinclair, an associate professor of economics at George Washington University and Indeed’s chief economist. “It’s a conscious move on [their] part to make the job more attractive.” Touting benefits is a “careful” and “measured” way for companies to give their vacancies more appeal, she says. It’s not as big a commitment as--say--increasing wages in a noticeable way.

Indeed collects its data, which runs through the end of September, by running word searches on the millions of job ads it pulls from all corners of the Internet.

The percentage of job postings that mention the word “benefits” overall is nearly back to pre-recession highs, while more specific perk-related terms like “bonus” and “401(k)” have surpassed 2007 levels. In fact, the share of job ads that mention “bonus” has more than doubled since January 2014, from 7% to 15% in September.

Sinclair attributes the jump in “401(k),” in part, to employers’ efforts to attract job candidates and to the shift towards 401(k) plans from retirement programs like pensions over the past decade.

The portion of job postings that advertise benefits related to insurance, healthcare, and health have also been on the rise.

This trend doesn’t mean that employers are paying bigger bonuses or improving their benefit packages. They’re just making more of an emphasis on such offerings. The focus on benefits is indicative of the strengthening bargaining power of employees, and that tightening, according to Sinclair, could be a precursor to real wage growth.

Wall Street stock futures are treading water ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on whether or not to raise interest rates, expected later Thursday. The dollar is weaker against the euro on speculation that it will choose not to hike, while crude oil futures are comfortably above $46.50 a barrel after a surprisingly large drawdown in U.S. petroleum stocks.

1. Fed’s moment of truth

The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day economic policy meeting today and Fed chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference this afternoon, which means everyone will be watching closely to see if the central bank finally issues the first official interest rate hike in the U.S. since 2006. Earlier this summer, most economists agreed that the long-awaited rate hike would come in September, but several turbulent weeks for global markets have cast doubt on the timing of the Fed’s decision.

2. Massive earthquake rocks Chile

A huge earthquake off the coast of Chile has killed five people and caused a million to evacuate their homes as the country issued tsunami warnings. The country is the world’s largest producer of copper, and prices for the metal have risen after two of the biggest producers in the country suspended operations.

3. Housing and unemployment data

Most of today’s market movement will likely be reserved for reactions to the Fed’s interest rate decision, whatever that may be, but there will also be some economic reports to watch. The Labor Department will reveal the number of Americans who filed for unemployment benefits last week after the number held steady at 275,000 claims the previous week. Also, the Commerce Department is expected to report that housing starts fell to 1.17 million units in August, down from an eight-year high of 1.21 million units the previous month. Meanwhile, building permits likely increased to 1.16 million units in the month from 1.13 million in July.

4. Adobe Systems earnings

The Photoshop-maker reports third-quarter financial results today and Adobe ADBE is expected to show profit that slightly outpaces Wall Street’s forecasts. Investors will be interested to see if Adobe was able to build on subscriber growth with its Creative Suite 6 as the company moves toward web-based subscriptions for its software.

5. Rite Aid earnings

Drugstore chain Rite Aid RAD is expected to report second-quarter profit that top analysts’ estimates when the company reports quarterly earnings today. Rite Aid lowered its full-year profit forecast earlier this summer in the wake of disappointing first-quarter results.

-- Reuters contributed to this report.

]]>http://fortune.com/2015/09/17/5-things-fed-meeting/feed/0U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet YellenhuddlestontomWhy low unemployment is bad news for UPS and Fedexhttp://fortune.com/2015/09/16/low-unemployment-seasonal-hiring/
http://fortune.com/2015/09/16/low-unemployment-seasonal-hiring/#respondWed, 16 Sep 2015 18:43:51 +0000http://fortune.com/?p=1311419]]>The unemployment rate has hit a seven-year low of 5.1%. While that’s good news for the working public, it’s bad news for major retailers looking to hire for the holidays.

As e-commerce continues to gain traction, the number of warehouse workers have also increased substantially, rising to 680,500 workers in July from less than 500,000 in 2005.

That’s putting pressure on finding new workers and even prompting many to start raising pay, according to the WSJ:

Starting warehouse wages, which have been stagnant for years, have been rising by about $1.50 to $3 an hour to attract workers in some markets, according to logistics staffing firm ProLogistix. The firm said that in this holiday season, temporary jobs--especially at e-commerce companies--start in a range of between about $11 and $13.50 an hour, up from between about $9 and $11, though it varies significantly by region.

Wall Street stock futures are set to open higher bouncing back from the underwhelming response to Apple’s new product event Wednesday. More weak data from China have encouraged hopes that the Federal Reserve won’t hike interest rates in September, although many in the market are now arguing it would be better for sentiment to get the first rate hike in nine years over and done with. Crude oil futures are struggling below $45 a barrel in anticipation of more evidence of ample U.S. inventories.

Today’s must-read story is from Fortune‘s Roger Parloff and it is an in-depth look at the incredible story behind billionaire activist investor Bill Ackman’s years-long quest to take down nutrition and supplements company Herbalife HLF.

Here’s what else you need to know today.

1. Weekly jobless claims

In its latest report on weekly jobless claims, U.S. Labor Department is expected to reveal a decrease in the number of Americas who filed new applications for unemployment benefits last week. The number of new claims filed has remained below 300,000 -- the benchmark typically associated with an improving employment landscape -- for more than 20 straight weeks.

2. Russian troops join the combat in Syria

Russian troops have begun participating in military operations in Syria, in support of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, according to Reuters sources in Lebanon. The move adds another dimension to the bitter four year-old conflict that is the main source of the refugee crisis overwhelming Europe and Syria’s neighbors. Russia’s Foreign Ministry has confirmed reports that there are now an increased number of military advisors in Syria, while U.S. officials claim that Russia has sent two tank landing ships and additional cargo aircraft to the country this week.

3. Lululemon hopes earnings are upward-facing

Yogawear and other athletic apparel retailer Lululemon LULU reports its latest quarterly figures today and the Vancouver-based company is expected to report increased second-quarter revenue. The company, which is expanding in Asia and Europe, has seen the benefits of improved online sales along with a popular line of men’s clothing-- both of which have helped the company in the face of the weakened Canadian dollar.

4. More Canadian retailers

Canadian department store chain Hudson’s Bay HBC also reports earnings today, as does the country’s largest discount retailer, Dollarama DOL. Hudson’s Bay -- which also owns Lord & Taylor and Saks 5th Avenue -- is expected to report a bump in second-quarter sales, thanks to strong online revenue and the rapid expansion efforts of Saks’ Off 5th outlets in the U.S. Dollarama is expected to report stronger second-quarter profit as the stores saw an increase in spending per individual consumer.

5. Fallon looks to Trump Colbert

The late-night television wars start to heat up tonight, as Jimmy Fallon and NBC’s Tonight Show welcome firebrand Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump for an appearance that is likely to result in huge ratings for the show. Rival talk show host Stephen Colbert hosted his first episode of The Late Show on CBS CBS earlier this week, easily trumping the competition in the ratings with a premiere episode featuring actor George Clooney and Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush. There should be plenty of jostling for big political guests in the lead-up to next year’s election, particularly with the amount of money in advertising spending on late-night talk shows on the rise recently. Next week, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton will drop byThe Tonight Show to chat with Fallon.

-- Reuters contributed to this report.

]]>http://fortune.com/2015/09/10/russians-in-syria-and-jobless-claims-5-things-to-know-today/feed/0LululemonhuddlestontomThe number of job openings in America just hit a new recordhttp://fortune.com/2015/09/09/job-openings-record/
http://fortune.com/2015/09/09/job-openings-record/#respondWed, 09 Sep 2015 16:35:47 +0000http://fortune.com/?p=1295596]]>After last week’s disappointing jobs report, there’s some good news on the employment front.

The U.S. government has been tracking job openings since December 2000 as part of its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, commonly known as JOLTS. July’s job opening numbers were well above economists’ average estimate of 5.29 million, and up 3.9% after holding steading at 3.6% for the three preceding months.

While all the openings are good news for job seekers, there was some mediocre data in the Labor Department’s report as well. Despite all the available jobs, employers aren’t hiring new people. Hiring fell to 4.98 million in July from 5.18 million in June. Separations, meaning those people leaving their jobs whether by quitting or layoffs, also fell, hitting 4.72 million in July compared to 4.91 million in June. The quits rate, which signals how confident people are to leave their job for another, held steady at 1.9% for the fourth month.

]]>http://fortune.com/2015/09/09/job-openings-record/feed/0Job Seekers Attend Job Fair In San FranciscolorenzettifortuneJobless rate falls to lowest since the recovery beganhttp://fortune.com/2015/09/04/unemployment-rate-jobs/
http://fortune.com/2015/09/04/unemployment-rate-jobs/#respondFri, 04 Sep 2015 13:21:56 +0000http://fortune.com/?p=1287363]]>The U.S. economy added 173,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment fell to 5.1%, according to a report released Friday by the Labor Department.

The total number of new non-farm payroll jobs was about 50,000 lower than economists had expected, but that was tempered by the fact that estimates for job gains in June and July were revised up by a total of 44,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate, now at 5.1%, is now at the lowest rate since April of 2008, well before the beginning of the economic recovery. While that sounds like great news, much of that decline can be blamed on the fact that the labor force participation rate, or the ratio of folks in the labor market to Americans over the age of 16, remains at levels not seen since the late 1970s, before women began entering the job market in force.

Another reason for concern: the report shows no sign that workers are getting a significant raise. Average hourly earnings have increased just 2.2% over the past year, while there’s evidence that much of these increases are being captured by more elite workers. As Daniel Alpert, Managing Partner of NY investment bank Westwood Capital tweeted:

#BLS Production and non-supervisory worker wages up 0.23% M/M whilst all workers up 0.31%. Again, wage gains accruing to top 15% of workers.

In other words, this jobs report doesn’t tell us much about the economy we didn’t already now. We’re still adding a healthy number of jobs each month, but we’re still seeing no signs of the strong wage growth that would both move the economy back towards 2% inflation, or spur the kind of above-trend economic growth that we once saw following recessions.

Wall Street stock futures are higher in the absence of headwinds from China’s closed markets and in the hope that the ECB will offer some comforting prospects of more monetary stimulus that could help sustain the global economy even as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates. Crude oil futures are also higher at $46.33 a barrel, while the dollar is mainly flat.

Today’s must-read stories are from Fortune‘s Kristen Bellstrom and Dan Primack, who each weighed in on recent reactions to the news of Yahoo YHOO CEO Marissa Mayer’s pregnancy. Even with the ongoing push for companies to adopt improved parental leave policies, Primack points out that no one should judge CEOs like Mayer and Facebook’s FB Mark Zuckerberg for working while they or their significant others are expecting, while Bellstrom agrees but also notes that Mayer should make it clear that she understands that not all working parents are able to take only limited leave to accommodate the birth of a child.

Here’s what else you need to know today.

1. China stages huge military parade – and sends its navy to patrol the Alaskan coast

China held a gigantic military parade to mark the end of its war with Japan in 1945, in a show of strength that was also a statement of intent on challenging U.S. military supremacy in the Far East and Pacific. Beijing unveiled a new ballistic missile capable of destroying aircraft carriers and also sent its warships to patrol the Bering Sea off Alaska, underlining its fast-growing capacity to project force beyond its borders. Read more about Xi Jinping’s huge pageant here.

2. European Central Bank meeting

At today’s ECB policy-setting meeting, the central bank is expected to keep interest rates steady as it cuts its inflation forecast amid slumping commodity prices, particularly crude oil, along with volatile global markets that have been spooked by China’s struggling economy. The markets will be watching the meeting closely for ECB President Mario Draghi’s thoughts on prospects for economic growth in China as well as hints on the possibility of further quantitative easing to stimulate the eurozone economy.

3. U.S. economic data

The Commerce Department will release data that is expected to show the international trade deficit fell to $42.4 billion in July from $43.8 billion the previous month. July exports increased for the first time in three months, which could be a positive signal for further improved economic growth in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the U.S. Labor Department is expected to report that the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week increased by 4,000, to 275,000 claims, from the previous week.

4. Campbell’s earnings easy to swallow?

Campbell Soup CPB reports its fourth-quarter results this morning. The maker of foods ranging from iconic soups to Pepperidge Farm baked goods reduced its long-term sales growth forecast earlier this summer due to consumers’ shift away from packaged, processed foods. Investors will be interested to hear about the results of Campbell’s aggressive cost-cutting measures, which have included layoffs.

5. Medtronic results

The medical device maker reports first-quarter earnings today and the results are expected to meet Wall Street’s forecasts following strong sales of the company’s cardiac, vascular, and minimally invasive products. Medtronic MDT moved its headquarters out of the U.S. and into Ireland last year as part of its $50 billion acquisition of Irish firm Covidien and today’s results will offer investors another look at how that deal has held up, including the amount of Medtronic’s cost savings and the effect of currency headwinds.

-- Reuters contributed to this report.

]]>http://fortune.com/2015/09/03/5-things-ecb/feed/0China Holds Military Parade To Commemorate End Of World War II In AsiahuddlestontomU.S. economy adds 223K jobs in June as unemployment dips to 5.3%http://fortune.com/2015/07/02/june-2015-jobs-report-unemployment/
http://fortune.com/2015/07/02/june-2015-jobs-report-unemployment/#respondThu, 02 Jul 2015 13:06:25 +0000http://fortune.com/?p=1199763]]>The United States labor market put in a tepid performance in June, with the addition of only 223,000 jobs, according to a report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday.

That was short of analysts’ exceptions, which put estimates for June job growth in the 225,000 to 230,000 territory.

According to the household survey, unemployment declined to a seven-year low of 5.3% in June, after inching up to 5.5% in May.

Though the jobs report’s top line numbers were not too bad, a closely-watched sub-indicator didn’t show such good news: hourly wages remained flat in June. That stagnation could delay a long-awaited hike in interest rates. After the May jobs report showed that wages had increased by 8 cents per hour, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said at a press conference June 17 that “wage increases are still running at a low level, but there have been some tentative signs that wage growth is picking up.”

Thursday’s report--released a day early because of the observation of the July 4th holiday on Friday--also showed that labor force participation dipped by 432,000 or 0.3% in June after an increase of similar size in May. The share of Americans participating in the labor market fell back from 62.9% in May to 62.6%–its lowest since 1977.

The number of long-term unemployed who’ve been without a job for 27 weeks or more declined by 381,000 to 2.1 million in June. Over the past 12 months that figure--which currently makes up 25.8% of the unemployed--has decreased by nearly 1 million.