Saturday, November 21, 2009

2010 Top Prospect List: #20 Byron Wiley, of

Byron Wiley is beginning to emerge as a legitimate prospect. His ascension up the ladder has been driven largely by his offensive game, which is defined by his ability to control the strike zone. While he has admittedly been somewhat old for his level of competition, his performance level is still strong. Wiley has the rare and potentially valuable combination of tools and skills. He provides good athleticism, but also understands how to translate his athleticism into offensive production. Wiley has a true understanding of how to hit, which led Dayton manager Todd Benzinger to call him a "flat out pure hitter." Wiley controls the strike zone well and maximizes the number of times he forces a consequence to the At Bat on a hitter's pitch.

While he's still raw and needs to prove himself against more advanced competition, Wiley is certainly trending in the right direction early in his professional career. If he continues to progress and develop, then he will prove to be a steal for the Reds, who selected him out of Kansas State in the 2008 draft.

Collegiate Career

Byron Wiley played for three years at Kansas State University. He joined K-State out of Tomball High School where he was a four year letterman, was first team all-state, and ranked as the third best player in Texas in 2005 by Texas Baseball News.

In 2006 as a freshman, Wiley started 44 out of 48 games and posted a slash line of .297/.425/.483/.908 with 5 homers and a 31/30 K/BB ratio. He also swiped 7 bases in 10 attempts. A stellar collegiate debut. His best game that season was his 3-for-6 performance against South Dakota which included 2 homeruns and 4 RBI. He finished up that season with 10 multi-hit games and 5 multi-RBI games.

He turned in quite an encore performance during his sophomore year, posting a .366/.494/.526/1.020 slash line with 7 homers and a 46/43 K/BB ratio. He was better across the board, including on the bases where he swiped 14 bases in 15 attempts. He played in 55 games, starting 54 of them in centerfield for the Wildcats. He led the team in hits (71), batting average (.366), RBI (44), runs (42), home runs (7), walks (43), and on-base percentage (.494). He ranked fourth in the Big 12 and 27th in the nation in walks, while his OBP of .494 was tops in the league. During the season, he had an 8-game hitting streak, 22 multi-hit games, and 12 multiple-RBI games. It was a tour de force type offensive performance for Wiley.

Unfortunately for Wiley, but perhaps fortunately for the Reds, his junior year was a complete disappointment. His level of performance dropped to .227/.342/.297/.639 with 1 homerun and a 51/20 K/BB ratio. He swiped 5 bases in 6 attempts.

Wiley credits his time at K-State with "helping him mature as a player and as a person." He continues to identify strongly with the school, even going so far as to have Wildcat slogans written on the knobs of his bats during his 2009 season in Dayton. The slogans include "Wiley the Wildcat" and "E.M.A.W." (Every Man a Wildcat).

Draft Position

Perhaps a bit surprisingly, Wiley agreed to turn pro after the Reds selected him 659th overall in the 22nd round of the 2008 draft. Given his stellar first two collegiate seasons, it was realistic to expect him to return to K-State for his senior season in the hopes of rebuilding his draft value and improving his bargaining position.

Fortunately for the Reds, Wiley did decide to turn pro after his lackluster junior year. Upon doing so, he immediately set out to return to his previous level of performance and prove his worth to his new organization.

Professional Career

The Reds sent Wiley to the rookie Pioneer League after he agreed to terms in 2008. In what was remaining of the 2008 season, Wiley ripped the cover off the ball. He produced to a tune of .328/.427/.635/1.062 in 137 ABs. He swiped 3 bases in 4 attempts, put up 27 extra base hits (17 2b, 5 3b, and 5 HRs), and a 49/24 K/BB ratio. His BABIP was rather high at .476, but his line drive rate was a robust 22% so the luck component wasn't quite as significant a factor as it might appear at first blush. He was squaring the ball up well and driving it with authority.

For the 2009 season, the Reds moved Wiley up to low-A Dayton, where Wiley continued producing at a good clip. His power numbers decreased, but his .275/.395/.461 slash line once again demonstrated that he has some of the best on-base skills in the entire system. His BABIP (.363) and line drive (15%) rate both regressed, which resulted in the decrease in his batting average (.275).

Wiley's best game of the season took place in early July, when he cranked three home runs against West Michigan. He joined Wily Mo Pena and Juan Francisco in the record books as the only three Dayton Dragons to hit three homers in a single game. This type of big game performance from Wiley may speak to additional, untapped power potential.

Interestingly enough, Wiley scuffled a bit at home and performed very well on the road. For Dayton, he hit .233/353/.406, while on the road he hit .312/.430/.510. Dayton isn't known as a pitcher's park, so the disparity probably isn't indicative of anything truly noteworthy, but still warrants a mention.

From his first year to his second year, Wiley improved his BB% from 15.0% to 16.3% and cut his strike out rate down from 28.8% to 24.5% against a more advanced level of competition.

Wiley has performed well so far in his professional career, but the case could be made that a polished college hitter should be having success against rookie league and low-A ball pitching. And, that's certainly a valid point, but good production is still good production. At the very least, Wiley deserves a bit of credit for performing like he "should." The 2010 season should bring more advanced pitching and more of a challenge for Wiley, but so far he has more than held his own as a professional.

Swing Mechanics and Plate Approach

Wiley doesn't have a long and lean body type like so many young prospects, but rather he is solidly put together with a strong lower half. His body type could portend more power to come as he continues to mature physically and hone his swing, but it could also lead to reduced speed if he continues to add weight to his lower half.

At the plate, Wiley uses a quiet approach and slightly wider than shoulder width stance. His shoulders are level and his hand position is high. His hands start up by his left ear and he hits with a high back elbow. He uses a small bat waggle to keep loose while waiting for the pitch. When the pitch is delivered, Wiley utilizes a very small stride. He does more than just lift his front foot up and place it right back down, but he doesn't advance his lead foot forward very much. The stride is important for two reasons: 1) to "cock the hips" and 2) to transfer the weight forward to meet the pitch. The hips are a significant source of power in the baseball swing. Typically, they are cocked during the stride, as the front hip tends to rotate inwards to build up energy to unleash during the swing. In addition, the stride starts the weight transfer during the swing.

At times, a wide stance can limit a hitter's ability to cock his hips and generate power in his swing. However, it can certainly be done, as evidenced by two all time great hitters with very wide stances, namely Joe DiMaggio and Albert Pujols. At this point, it isn't looking like a concern for Wiley, but perhaps bears watching.

As Wiley makes his stride, his weight transfers forward and he draws his hands back into the hitting position. Once he front foot hits the ground, he begins to fire his hips, which both generates power and clears the way for his swing, allowing him to drop the head of the bat on the ball. Wiley has smooth, fluid swing that is fairly level, but has just a touch of uppercut. He generates good bat speed and gets good extension through the zone. He maintains good balance throughout the swing and hits off a solid foundation. He finishes his swing by letting his top hand come off the bat, utilizing a one-handed follow through. You can see that his swing has the potential to get too long at times, which could hinder his ability to make consistent contact. Overall, Wiley has a nice, advanced approach at the plate and a nice, smooth swing to go with it. This combination allows him to both work the pitcher for a pitch he likes and gives him the potential to actually do something with that pitch when he gets it.

Here is a look at Wiley in action for K-State:

One thing that Wiley will need to work on his two strike approach. As a late count hitter, Wiley will see far more 2-strike counts than those aggressive, early-count hitters like Juan Pierre or Willy Taveras. In a perfect world, Wiley will continue to work deep into the count, which will enable him to be selective and draw walks, but also improve his two strike approach to cut down on the strikeouts. If he can shorten up in two-strike situations, he might be able to get quicker to the ball and limit the times that he fails to put the ball in play.

Wiley isn't likely to develop into a true power hitter, so shortening up in 2-strike situations will likely provide more benefits (putting the ball in play to give himself a chance for a hit) than detriments (reducing his power and his chances for a homer). Wiley already reaps significant production benefits from his late count approach, but refining his 2-strike approach to cut down on strike outs would make him more effective at the plate and improve his chances for success against more advanced pitching.

Defense and Positional Value

At this point, Wiley's skills in the field lag behind his skills at the plate. The Reds have utilized Wiley primarily in the corner outfield spots. He spent a great deal of time in center at the collegiate level, but has played 93 games in right, 36 in left, and only 2 in center during his professional career. Given the number of quality centerfielders currently in the Reds system, Wiley's best chances are likely in a corner slot.

Despite his good over athleticism and speed, Wiley still hasn't managed to turn his defensive tools into above average defense. In 2009, minorleaguesplits.com rated him as 2 runs below average in left and 1 run above average in right. There is likely room for improvement, as Wiley's footspeed and athleticism give him the tools necessary to play a solid outfield. More experience should enable him to improve his positioning and reads on fly balls.

Conclusion

Overall, Wiley is an intriguing prospect. He's flashing the best on-base skills of anyone in the system outside of Yonder Alonso. When you pair his good athleticism with his plus on-base skills, you have the makings of a solid prospect. Questions still abound about Wiley, namely whether he can find success against more advanced pitching, increase his power output while maintaining a reasonable strikeout rate, and improve his defensive game. Even so, he possesses arguably the most important skill in baseball, the ability to get on base, and has the athletic skill to give him a relatively high development ceiling. Next year will be a big test for Wiley and will provide an important data point for his career trajectory, but for now he checks in at #20 on the list.

Personally, I'd say he's pretty interesting already. He's a good athlete who already understands how to translate his tools into baseball specific skills. In fact, he seems like he could be a nice, happy medium between guys like Danny Dorn, who are high on hitting skills, but low on athletic ability, and guys like Billy Hamilton, who are long on raw tools, but low on baseball specific skills.

I'm not entirely sure how much more power he'll need to develop. To me, if you can hit for average, you need to pair it with on base skills or power. An empty batting average isn't worth much in my book. Still, Wiley already has the on base skills to go with a nice hit tool. Even so, power is usually the last tool to develop and his 3 homer game shows that he can drive the ball with authority, so there is still some power projection left in him.

As for his positional value, obviously his prospect value would be higher if he could play a solid centerfield. However, his specific value to the organization isn't really impacted by having to play a corner spot, as that's where he would end up anyway. Realistically speaking, he wouldn't be able to beat out Drew Stubbs, Chris Dickerson, or Chris Heisey for the centerfield job anyway. So, regardless of his ability (or lack thereof) to play center, he would be destined for a corner spot. At this point, an inability to play center would hurt his trade value more than his unique value to the organization.

Obviously, 2010 will be a key data point on Wiley, but I like what he's done in both his collegiate and professional career thus far.

It's an interesting question, to be sure. Under the MLB system, he couldn't have entered the draft after his sophomore season, so that wouldn't have been an option for him. You can enter the draft right after high school, but if you attend college then you are not draft eligible again until after your junior and senior years.

If, instead of having a down junior year, he followed up his sophomore year with a junior year that rivaled his sophomore year in terms of performance level, then I'd say he'd be a legitimate option in the first 5-6 rounds.

On the other hand, if he went back to K-State after his down junior year and proceeded to hit like he did as a sophomore during his senior year, then he would probably would have rebuilt his value enough to land in the top 10-12 rounds.

Outside of the down year as a junior, the only other potential question that might have devalued his collegiate performance is the level of competition. K-State isn't an elite baseball school, so there may have been questions about the caliber of pitching he faced. Even so, that type of production is impressive irrespective of the level of competition.

Anyway, he's an intriguing player who is certainly looking right now like a great value pick for the Reds.

Ideally, I'd get a new post up every other day, but more realistically it will be two to three a week. It just depends on what kind of time I have, as they do take quite a bit of time to write up. Unfortunately, the posts tend to go in spurts, but I'm trying to do a few each week.

Thanks for the reply. I wasn't aware of that rule regarding draft eligibility. If he can continue to improve, and with a plethora of corner outfields (or potential corner outfielders) in our farm system, do you see Wiley as trade material? Or do you see a role for him in the Reds' organization in the future? Or...is it just way too early to make any such call?

At this point, it's a bit too early. Wiley still has some work to do before we can start slotting him in as a projected starter. He also needs to prove himself against more advanced competition. Until that happens, his trade value isn't very high.

Still, I do think there are real reasons for optimism. First, his on-base skills look pretty ridiculous. Remarkably enough, as both a freshman and sophomore, his OBP was exactly .128 points higher than his batting average. If you can get your OBP up to .100 points higher than your batting average, then you have done something really impressive. Wiley's .128 is ridiculous.

And, fortunately, he continued that trend in professional ball. For Billings in 2008, Wiley was at .099. For Dayton in 2009, he was up to .120. So, regardless of the level of competition, Wiley excels at getting on-base, which is the most important skill a hitter can have.

In addition, I do like his hit tool. He has a nice, fundamentally sound swing. So, he's not going to get the bat knocked out of his hands, which is important because it's difficult to maintain a high OBP if pitchers aren't afraid to challenge you. If they can get away with grooving fastballs, then they won't throw pitches outside of the zone or borderline pitches on the corners.

Still, at this point, it's guarded optimism. Wiley does need to demonstrate his skills against more advanced competition. As a college prospect, he should be holding his own against rookie league and low-A ball pitching. The real test will come against high-A and double-A pitching. If he passes those tests, then we can start thinking about his future role with the team. He's got a bit of work to do first.

Are you Byron Wiley's brother? If so, wish him well for me. I'm expecting good things out of him in the future, as he's an intriguing offensive prospect with a nice skill set.

As for K-State's schedule, you're right that they do face some top notch baseball programs (i.e. Nebraska, Texas, Witcha State, etc). I didn't intend to imply that they were facing cupcakes. Still, whether the quality of their opponents matches up to the schedules of Stanford, Cal State Fullerton, LSU, FSU, Miami, etc. etc. is somewhat arguable.

thanks. and yea hes my brother he just went back up to kansas. but no the reds just wanted him to mainly work on his defense and lower his strikeout count. in my perspective i think he's too selective but its working for him but sometimes he needs to jump on the first pitch

Thanks for the update. It sounds like you have a lot of knowledge of the game and probably kick around hitting with your brother quite a bit. I wonder if his selectivity is a conscious decision or just the way he's always done things. Part me of thinks a hitter's approach at the plate is more of an in-born trait than a learned skill. Still, I do wonder what his approach is at the plate on a pitch-by-pitch basis.

Does he go up there and look for his favorite pitch in his favorite location on the first pitch? Swing if he gets it and pass if he doesn't? Then, on pitch two use the same approach if it's 1-0, but get less selective if it's 0-1? Is it more of a feel approach or a thinking approach?

Plate discipline is an interesting issue, to be sure. There IS something of a fine line between impressive patience and being too passive. A large part of what makes him such an intriguing prospect (in my book, anyway) is his ability to control the strike zone. I'm not sure I'd want to see him sacrifice very much of that simply to cut down on strikeouts.

To a certain extent, strikeouts and walks go hand in hand. To state the obvious, you can't draw a walk without seeing at least 4 pitches and can't strikeout without seeing at least 3. So, each is largely the domain of the late count hitter. Given the value of getting on-base and drawing walks, I'm more than willing to take a few strikeouts to get them.

In addition, there are quite a few obvious benefits to working counts. The stats tip heavily in favor of the hitter when he works the count in his favor and heavily against him when the pitcher gets ahead in the count. So, there are significant advantages to maximizing the number of times you hit in a hitter's count.

If he can increase his power output by getting more aggressive, then it may well be worth it. That could well happen, as sometimes the first pitch is the best one you get. On the other hand, I wouldn't want to see him get more aggressive simply to cut down on the strikeouts.

Anyway, he's definitely an intriguing hitter and I'm expecting him to take it up a notch in 2010. I'm a bit surprised that his 2010 level will be determined by his performance in spring training. I was expecting him to head to high-A with a quick promotion if he played well. Still, nice to see the Reds are open minded on the proper spot for him.

no problem. what i have tend to notice is that pitchers know he will take the first pitch so they make sure they will get first pitch strike which is usually a fastball. then they will pitch him away or all offspeed after that but his hitting has increased alot and its starting to get where it doesnt matter what they throw. my dad taught us to hit away and when they come inside make em pay.

Yeah, that's a good point. The point of the patient approach is to battle for a good pitch. Of course, if the first pitch is a grooved fastball, then you need to jump on it. Not doing so would cross the line from patient to too passive and put him behind in the count too often. Hopefully, he takes your Dad's advice in 2010 and starts depositing more of those inside pitches in the rightfield bleachers!

I'm really hoping to see Wiley skip High-A. Hopefully, he comes out in shape and hitting well in spring training. The combination of his age and plate discipline make him a good candidate for that move. But it will also depend on the organizational depth chart - I haven't really went over it completely, but I think it looks promising.

As for Wiley, I'd love to see him in double-A...if he's ready. Maybe I'm overrating him, but I like Wiley a lot. His on-base skills are ridiculously good and I really do think he's got more power potential in his bat.

Still, Double-A is a big step up, so he might be better off splitting the season between high-A and double-A. But, if he's ready for it, throw him out there and see what he can do.

I haven't broken down the organizational depth chart either, but I don't think there's really anyone at double-A who should block his path.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see if he takes a step forward in 2010. I've got fairly high hopes, so hopefully he does.

Wiley wasn't going to build his draft value if he went back to college his senior year. Most seniors aren't drafted high because they have no other choice but to sign, and after that pathetic year he had...he would have had to tear it up.

I still contend that if Wiley returned to K-State for his senior year and put up production in line with his freshman and sophomore seasons, then he would have been drafted much higher than the 22nd round.

Draft position is driven largely by performance, tools, and skills. You're right in that he would have had no choice to sign, but that is actually an advantage for the team that drafts him and likely makes him a more desirable draft pick.

Draft eligible seniors have less bargaining power and less leverage to use in negotiations. That's a benefit to the drafting organization, as they can likely sign the player for less than if he could return to college.

A reason why Bryce Harper may ultimately sign for more than Stephen Strasburg is that Harper is so young that he has a lot of options and, thus, a lot of leverage.

Yeah, that is my understanding as well. Seniors just have less bargaining power. The option of returning to school for your senior year gives juniors more leverage. No option is as attractive if a college senior elects not to sign.

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Blessed (or is it cursed) to be a Reds fan. I've loved baseball as long as I can remember. Played it until they told me I couldn't anymore. Now, always thinking on it.
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