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Hugh White

The coming war in Asia that nobody wants

The Senkakus issue is likewise a symptom of tensions whose cause lies elsewhere, in China’s growing challenge to America’s long-standing leadership in Asia, and America’s response. In the past few years China has become both markedly stronger and notably more assertive. America has countered with the strategic pivot to Asia. Now, China is pushing back against President Barack Obama’s pivot by targeting Japan in the Senkakus.

The Japanese themselves genuinely fear that China will become even more overbearing as its strength grows, and they depend on America to protect them. But they also worry whether they can rely on Washington as China becomes more formidable. China’s ratcheting pressure over the Senkakus strikes at both these anxieties. …

Where will it end? The risk is that, without a clear circuit-breaker, the escalation will continue until at some point shots are exchanged, and a spiral to war begins that no one can stop. Neither side could win such a war, and it would be devastating not just for them but for the rest of us.

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“Japan, whose population is shrinking, ranks in the top 10 percent of countries by water resources, while China and India, with the opposite demographic trend, will face shortages from 2030, according to a United Nations report in August. Almost half of China’s economy is already based in water-scarce regions, HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) said in a Sept. 12 report.”

When the Japanese run through China, this time, they’ll have free reign. The commies have earned it.

Tom Friedman and the Dems will be the hardest hit. We all know how they love communist China. The commie bastards are the closest thing American lefties have to heaven on Earth – not that any of them would do us all a favor and defect to their wonderland. The idiot dems can’t even stop themselves from publicly wishing that they could turn this nation into another commie wonderland.

I’ve heard for years that China would never risk war with us because their economy is as dependent on us buying their crap as our economy is on their crap. In Corrie ten Boom’s biography about pre-war Holland people were saying the same thing about Germany. War with China is likely a “when” not an “if”.

There is a ticking demographic bomb in China as a result of their one child policy. Through selective abortion there is a glut of young men and a scaricity of women. The Chinese goverment needs to preoccupy these youths and what better way than to manufacture some national emergency and let them spend their energy in regional conflicts.

If China is successful, they win their objectives. If not, at least all these restive young men are not getting involved in counter-revolution activities.

Personally I’m waiting for China to go to war with Russia over resources. Russia, with a fraction of China’s population, can’t defend eastern Russia from a Chinese takeover.

Charlemagne on December 29, 2012 at 7:43 PM

I have wondered alot about that too. China doesn’t seem to be pushing into Siberia or pressuring the Russian Federation in any way. I have asked my Russian family what that’s all about (and why Russia seems so blase about N. Korea having nukes) and they just shrug. I get the feeling that they are fatalistic about a war that will cost the lives of millions and believe the Russian leadership would use all weapons at its disposal to defeat any and all attacks on Russia proper.

Russians are seriously scary people. While I don’t see them wanting to take over the world, I do see them doing anything and everything to defeat an attacker. Nukes, gas, germs whatever it takes. And I believe that everyone else in Asia believes that too. Never forget that Russians as as much Asians as they are Europeans. We could learn alot from them on dealing with our opponents and enemies.

The Japanese themselves genuinely fear that China will become even more overbearing as its strength grows, and they depend on America to protect them. But they also worry whether they can rely on Washington as China becomes more formidable. China’s ratcheting pressure over the Senkakus strikes at both these anxieties.

So don’t be too surprised if the US and Japan go to war with China next year

No. Any war with China won’t take place for a while yet, maybe 5-10 years. Maybe more. The war is, as things are now, inevitable, but China won’t be ready to start it until it feels its military modernization is substantially complete and it isn’t so utterly dependent on its economic ties to the US. So no, not next year.

No one in 431BC really wanted a war

Of course they wanted war, particularly Corinth and other states Athens had bullied, so Sparta declared war.

The push and shove over the islands has been escalating for months.

Actually no, the Senkaku dispute has been going on for many years, this was just a busier year than most because the Japanese government bought the islands to prevent nationalists from getting them.

Where will it end? The risk is that, without a clear circuit-breaker, the escalation will continue until at some point shots are exchanged, and a spiral to war begins that no one can stop.

Huh? How about no. Escalations don’t happen on their own. The escalations have been pathetic so far, with the japanese and chinese just yelling at each other over the radio to leave. Please.

No one wants this, but the crisis will not stop by itself.

Foolishness. People don’t act contrary to what they want. Politicians giving tough speeches is not the same as their policy decisions behind closed doors. Maybe you should read about the cuban missile crisis: each escalation was carefully considered. It isn’t like a married couple fighting and saying something in the heat of the moment.

Beijing apparently believes that if it keeps pushing, Washington will persuade Tokyo to make concessions over the disputed islands in order to avoid being dragged into a war with China, which would be a big win for them. Tokyo on the other hand fervently hopes that, faced with firm US support for Japan, China will have no choice but to back down.

Wrong, and foolish. Japan is more than able to fight China and win without US help. Japanese forces are far better quality than Chinese, and in any limited war Japan would have a huge advantage. Also, the US had no power to tell Japan how do act. We can’t even control Israel and Israel is far more dependent on us than Japan is. If we piss off Japan, we lose an important ally and access to important bases like Okinawa. Japan is our best ally in the region. The US is not going to ally any kind of serious pressure to Japan in China’s favor.

Unfortunately, the Chinese seem to see things differently. They believe America will not risk a break with China because America’s economy would suffer so much.

Wrong. China just thinks the US is weak, and Obama is weak. China is not so foolish that it thinks the US economy would suffer “so much”, China merely thinks we are spineless enough that it can use its lobbying powers (by manipulating US businesses that outsource to China, and by calling in all that illegal campaign finance stuff they do) to break US resolve and get us to back down and not intervene. However, thing is, US intervention is irrelevant to the Senkaku dispute. Japan is not Taiwan, it is one of the richest countries in the world, more advanced than China, and doesn’t need the US for this.

For Japan, bowing to Chinese pressure would feel like acknowledging China’s right to push them around, and accepting that America can’t help them.

False. More like Japan would look incredibly weak and submissive to China’s bullying, and would look incapable of defending their national sovereignty without US help. THAT would be the humiliation: that Japan can’t do anything unless the US comes in and does it for them, not that Japan would be accepting that the US is a bad ally. We aren’t. (yet)

And for Beijing, a backdown would mean that instead of proving its growing power, its foray into the Senkakus would simply have demonstrated America’s continued primacy.

Again, no. This is not an American dispute. Japan doesn’t need, and hasn’t asked for, US help on this. If China backs down it means China can’t even take on Japan, let alone America. For a country that has brainwashed its people into thinking that China’s main rival is the US and that China will inevitably replace the US as the dominant global power, backing down to Japan is unacceptable. However, this doesn’t mean China must escalate, either. Again, an actual battle with Japan which results in a loss for China would be devastating to the Chinese government, so China will avoid escalating until it feels very confident that it will win.

Another reason is that Chinese have a deep seated historical resentment against Japan for WW2, rape of nanking, and going back to the Sino-Japanese wars in the late 19th century. Japan really worked China over in the past and so China is extra sensitive to looking weak in regard to Japan.

No US president will go to war with China over Taiwan. We will arm Taiwan and help them but a full conflict with China over Taiwan nowadays? Not going to happen.

iconoclast on December 29, 2012 at 9:16 PM

You bet we will. We have a treaty obligation. We might not put boots on the ground (and we wouldn’t have to) but we would use air and naval power to attack and destroy Chinese submarines, ships, missiles and aircraft. Even if we remain purely defensive, it would still be a war.

Neither side could win such a war, and it would be devastating not just for them but for the rest of us.

I know this guy is taking the ‘morally equivalent’ posture that both sides could start the war…but only one really wants it…and they are the ones most likely to soon conclude they can win it.

They’ve tested Barry’s mettle and found it weak…very weak indeed.

The only reason there won’t be war is because the Japanese will surrender the islands without firing a shot…to buy time to build up their military. Because they know that the US is now incapable and unwilling to protect them any longer.

The Chinese are beginning to realize they can have anything they want…Obama can not and will not stop them. The world changed on November 6th 2012 and now the world will find out exactly what that election meant.

Are you sure we have a defense treaty with Taiwan? As I read the Taiwan Relations Act it sounds like it guarantees that the USA will supply weapons but only view an attack “gravely”. Sounds like an out for even the most aggressive US president (we won’t talk about Obama).