momagri, movement for a world agricultural organization, is a think tank chaired by Christian Pèes.It brings together, managers from the agricultural world and important people from external perspectives, such as health, development, strategy and defense. Its objective is to promote regulationof agricultural markets by creating new evaluation tools, such as economic models and indicators,and by drawing up proposals for an agricultural and international food policy.

For the third consecutive harvest, the global grain supply proves to be inadequate against the demand pressure generated by major consumer centers. In the Black Sea Area, the harvest is over and the outlook is not as promising as it was in 2011––in Russia the 2012 wheat crop is estimated at 71,7 million tons, against 94.2 million tons in 2011. In the United States, corn prices are rising due to this summer’s drought.

In addition, various experts estimate that global grain reserves continue to shrink, principally affecting large exporting zones. Conversely, net importing nations are known to be currently building up large stocks, in order to secure agricultural commodity supplies.

In this current tight context, the early 2013 outlook could lead to higher and more volatile agricultural prices, as a result of the combination of three key factors:

- Agricultural prices are extremely responsive to any imbalance between supply and demand, and therein lies the specific nature of agricultural markets;
- Low global stock levels and their concentration in some geographical zones (especially in China, where, according to various experts, half of global corn reserves might be stocked) are significantly restricting their role of shock-absorber against price hyper-volatility;
- Finally, tensions recorded on physical markets, combined with governments’ low margin of manoeuver in terms of market regulation through stocks, might lead to a rush by speculators in futures markets.

Confronted with tensions that might be generated by the current situation, the international community must come together and adopt mechanisms to contain the threats of hyper-volatility, and thus effectively fight the food insecurity it generates.

For FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva and French President François Hollande, the idea of building up national food stocks has become all the more relevant. In September, the two leaders stressed the value of a reserve policy to fight price volatility and prevent future food crises. However, such policy must be implemented within a global governance system to endure tomorrow’s food sovereignty for each and all.