Friday, March 21, 2014

Yes we are in the midst of one of the best times of the sporting year - MARCH MADNESS - but for those that are more interested in the NBA here is my latest update to performance & ratings.

OFFENSE

DEFENSE

TOTAL

Team

SUM

RANK

SUM

RANK

SUM

RANK

Minnesota

37

4

47

8

84

1

L.A.
Clippers

30

1

55

11

85

2

Oklahoma
City

50

7

43

6

93

3

Portland

32

2

61

16

93

3

Houston

36

3

59

14

95

5

San
Antonio

66

15

36

3

102

6

Toronto

49

6

53

10

102

6

Golden
State

66

15

39

4

105

8

Indiana

73

21

32

1

105

8

Memphis

60

13

45

7

105

8

Charlotte

68

20

39

4

107

11

Chicago

74

23

33

2

107

11

Cleveland

67

19

55

11

122

13

Phoenix

50

7

72

19

122

13

Sacramento

50

7

72

19

122

13

Detroit

55

12

69

18

124

16

Washington

73

21

51

9

124

16

Denver

53

11

75

23

128

18

Miami

66

15

63

17

129

19

Dallas

50

7

80

25

130

20

Atlanta

74

23

58

13

132

21

New
Orleans

44

5

90

29

134

22

Brooklyn

63

14

72

19

135

23

New
York

66

15

79

24

145

24

Orlando

85

29

60

15

145

24

Boston

83

28

72

19

155

26

L.A.
Lakers

78

26

81

26

159

27

Utah

77

25

88

27

165

28

Milwaukee

78

26

93

30

171

29

Philadelphia

107

30

88

27

195

30

Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team
down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the
highest correlation to team success.One
aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL
ratings that are best when higher.We
can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or
under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could
produce more or less points. Last key
item of note is these ratings weight each stat equally, where below in my
projected wins & power ratings they are properly weighted to their impact
based on statistical testing.Using an
equal weight for each statistic can add a lot of value to your handicapping
efforts when properly applied.

Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the
Performance Rankings as a base:

HOME

ROAD

Power Rating

Power Rating

L.A. Clippers

117.0

113.0

Miami

116.9

112.9

Golden State

114.9

111.9

San Antonio

115.4

111.9

Oklahoma City

115.7

111.7

Indiana

114.9

110.9

Dallas

113.9

110.9

Toronto

113.5

110.5

Phoenix

113.5

110.5

Houston

114.5

110.5

Minnesota

112.8

110.3

Memphis

113.3

110.3

Washington

111.0

108.5

Portland

112.0

108.5

New York

110.5

108.5

Detroit

110.3

108.3

Brooklyn

111.3

108.3

Chicago

110.8

107.8

Charlotte

110.2

107.7

New Orleans

109.6

107.6

Atlanta

110.4

107.4

Denver

109.6

107.1

Sacramento

109.0

107.0

Cleveland

107.9

105.9

Boston

107.9

105.9

Orlando

106.7

104.7

Milwaukee

106.2

104.2

Utah

105.5

103.5

L.A. Lakers

104.8

102.8

Philadelphia

102.0

100.0

These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when
handicapping nightly matchups.

Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical
buckets: SU to date, ATS to date, SU projected wins at season’s end &
current SOS:

Win %

ATS Win %

Projected Wins

Current SOS

Wins

RANK

Wins

RANK

Wins

RANK

SOS

RANK

L.A. Clippers

0.696

5

0.574

4

57.57

4

0.507

14

Miami

0.697

4

0.453

24

57.30

5

0.544

5

Golden State

0.629

8

0.493

16

51.99

7

0.540

7

San Antonio

0.761

1

0.522

10

61.11

1

0.572

1

Oklahoma City

0.735

2

0.552

5

59.20

2

0.566

2

Indiana

0.735

2

0.507

14

58.90

3

0.544

5

Dallas

0.594

10

0.551

6

49.21

9

0.529

9

Toronto

0.567

12

0.606

2

47.19

12

0.516

11

Phoenix

0.574

11

0.657

1

47.22

11

0.524

10

Houston

0.662

6

0.530

8

53.34

6

0.556

3

Minnesota

0.507

16

0.493

16

42.64

16

0.508

13

Memphis

0.597

9

0.477

18

48.71

10

0.531

8

Washington

0.515

15

0.522

10

42.98

15

0.495

17

Portland

0.652

7

0.536

7

51.97

8

0.549

4

New York

0.412

20

0.441

27

35.45

20

0.469

23

Detroit

0.373

23

0.424

28

32.40

22

0.461

26

Brooklyn

0.530

14

0.530

8

43.16

14

0.505

15

Chicago

0.559

13

0.500

15

44.83

13

0.511

12

Charlotte

0.478

17

0.591

3

39.20

17

0.489

18

New Orleans

0.403

21

0.444

26

33.89

21

0.479

21

Atlanta

0.470

18

0.462

21

38.21

18

0.488

20

Denver

0.456

19

0.456

23

37.25

19

0.489

18

Sacramento

0.353

24

0.470

19

29.46

24

0.470

22

Cleveland

0.377

22

0.464

20

30.86

23

0.462

25

Boston

0.333

25

0.515

13

27.65

25

0.452

27

Orlando

0.275

28

0.418

29

23.38

28

0.434

28

Milwaukee

0.188

30

0.449

25

16.30

30

0.410

30

Utah

0.319

27

0.462

21

25.23

27

0.468

24

L.A. Lakers

0.328

26

0.515

12

25.59

26

0.503

16

Philadelphia

0.221

29

0.382

30

17.91

29

0.418

29

This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years at
projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings but
also the actual wins teams will finish with come the end of the regular season
(and they only get more accurate the deeper into the season we get).Based on these projections the playoffs would
set up like this; in addition I have included all teams in each conference that
have a chance at reaching playoffs.Lastly, to give a better representation of estimated final record I use
where each team is currently record wise and simply apply my projected winning
% for each team based on my performance ratings to their remaining schedule:

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The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.