Larry Hartstein

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The Seahawks begin their Super Bowl defense Thursday by entertaining fellow championship contender Green Bay in a standalone showcase (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC). Seattle has been a consistently dominant home team in the Pete Carroll era, covering 24 of 35 games (68.6 percent) at raucous CenturyLink Field. Seattle has covered in those games, including losses, by an average of 5.9 points.

The Line: Seahawks -6, Total: 46

Line movement: The LVH opened this game Seattle -5 back in April, and while the number bounced between 5 and 5.5 through August, it crept up to 6 at a few Las Vegas venues two days before the game.

This total opened at 44.5 or 45 across Vegas and shot up to 46 or 46.5. It could be a reaction to the preseason, when refs strictly enforced illegal contact and defensive holding – exactly the kind of calls that make Seattle’s Legion of Boom less effective. For updated Las Vegas lines, see our live odds page .

Trends that matter: The UNDER is 5-0 in Seattle’s last five home games and 7-0 in Seattle’s last seven games vs. NFC foes … Green Bay is 59-36-1 ATS (62.1 percent) alltime with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

Rookie under the gun: Corey Linsley, a fifth-round pick out of Ohio State, will start at center for Green Bay due to JC Tretter’s injury. He’ll be responsible for setting up protections – a tall order with the 12th Man in full roar. If Linsley doesn’t bark out calls quickly enough, the Packers’ no-huddle offense won’t work.

Seahawks to manhandle Packers? Jordy Nelson says he expects the refs to ease up on the ticky-tack penalties; how this game is called will have a dramatic effect. If the refs let Richard Sherman and Co. mug Green Bay’s receivers, Rodgers won’t be able to overcome it. The Packers need to get a few calls to give them room to operate.

Eddie Lacy the X-factor: Coach Pete Carroll is concerned about what Lacy brings to Green Bay, with good reason. Lacy provides a hammer the Packers long have lacked.

“He will not go down easily,” Carroll told reporters. “They also have him in on third down and they don’t mind throwing it to him. He’s an obvious element now. He’s a big deal."

The Seahawks have a quick defense that's not overly big. Lacy could wear them down if Green Bay sticks with it.

Weather: It will be 74 and clear at gametime, with winds at 7 mph. See wunderground.com for the latest forecast.

The Linemakers’ lean: While it takes some gumption to bet against Seattle at home, Green Bay has been a fine play on the road under McCarthy, with a 25-20-1 ATS mark since 2009, and 41-27-1 since his tenure began in 2006. Sure, that doesn't match the Seahawks' 25-10 cash rate at home under Pete Carroll, but value trumps trends in our book, and we see value in the Packers +6.

We're also looking at the OVER, as we have the league's best QB on one side of the field, and the sixth-best (Russell Wilson) up against the 27th-ranked defense, according to The Linemakers' Kenny White.