In brief

The re-imposition of US sanctions, in August and November 2018, will enforce the need for a less open economy, while fears of regime-threatening widespread unrest as economic conditions worsen are likely to lead to tighter social conditions. Given their long-standing opposition to the US, the hardliners will strengthen their grip over the economy. Economic activity will suffer from severe tight financial conditions, and efforts at unifying the dual currencies are likely to fail.