With massive changes to the Oilers’ blue line personnel, it seemed like an appropriate time to reflect on the job they’ve done so far this season.

Personally, I like scoring chances as a metric, because it’s a larger sample than goals for and against and not as dependent on goaltender quality on either side. Unfortunately, it’s hard to break down scoring chances by defence pairings, so that won’t work for what I have in mind.

The chart below uses a Corsi ratio. The number in the box indicates how many shots (including blocked and missed shots) the opposition manages at even-strength for every 100 Oilers’ shots. A low number means that a certain defence pairing has out-shot the opposition, while a high number means they’ve been out-shot by the opposition.

Take Sheldon Souray and Tom Gilbert as an example. Their combined number (88) means that for every 100 shots the Oilers have managed with them on the ice, the opposition has only managed 88 shots, which is extremely good. All combinations together for more than 100 total shots are listed below.

Souray

Visnovsky

Gilbert

Smid

Grebeshkov

Staios

Strudwick

Chorney

Total (Ratio)

Sheldon Souray

88

126

96

Lubomir Visnovsky

100

89

105

116

97

Tom Gilbert

88

124

129

172

109

Ladislav Smid

100

148

117

Denis Grebeshkov

89

124

116

182

122

Steve Staios

126

148

116

128

126

Jason Strudwick

105

129

182

128

179

151

Taylor Chorney

116

172

179

152

(thanks to Vic Ferrari's timeonice.com for the numbers on the chart)

Looking at that chart, I see three distinct groups.

At the top end of the scale are Sheldon Souray and Lubomir Visnovsky, the Oilers most expensive and best defencemen. Souray’s now finished for the season with a hand infection and Visnovsky will be plying his trade in Anaheim, so the dive for five got a substantial boost in the last few days. I rate Visnovsky ahead of Souray because even though his total number is a hair lower, he’s also been condemned to spend time with both Chorney and Strudwick – more on those two in a moment. Meanwhile, Souray has been excellent with Tom Gilbert and poor with Steve Staios, indicating that while he’s a good defenceman who can help he can’t single-handedly carry a pairing.

In the middle are four players of varying ability. Based on what they’ve done with different partners, right now I’d rate them in order as Gilbert, Grebeshkov, Smid, Staios. Gilbert’s had a bad season but has matched well with Souray; I imagine we’ll see his stock plummet as he lines up beside inferior partners for the rest of the season. Grebeshkov’s performance has been quite good when paired with Visnovsky, poor with Gilbert and Staios, and utterly atrocious with Strudwick. Smid has had the benefit of mostly playing with Visnovsky, where he’s looked okay (but not great in comparison to Visnovsky’s other partners) and with Staios, where he’s looked lost. Finally, Steve Staios has fallen into an elevator shaft when on the ice with anyone other than Grebeshkov, with whom he has only looked moderately bad.

At the bottom end of the spectrum are a pair of matching boat anchors: Jason Strudwick and Taylor Chorney. Chorney at least has youth on his side; he isn’t an NHL defenceman at this point and I highly doubt he’ll be one next year, but it’s conceivable he could someday turn into a power play specialist who can survive on the third pairing. Right now, every player who plays with him sees his numbers drop off sharply.

Unlike Chorney, Strudwick has age as an enemy; he’s in decline at this stage of his career and should not get another NHL contract. He’s a millstone around the neck of any player he partners with, and the fact that his opponents manage 151 shots for every 100 the Oilers take is simply inexcusable, especially given that the coaching staff has taken some pains to keep him away from good opponents.

This situation bodes well in the Oilers continued quest to be the worst team in the National Hockey League: both of their best defenceman are finished for the year, the surviving members of the top-six (Gilbert and Smid) have lost their best partners and have been poor without those players (and Smid may be done anyway), and two of the worst defenceman in the NHL today will get regular minutes for the rest of the year.

Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer.
He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report.
He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.

Jonathan - Is it possible to re-do that chart with the players we currently have to work with? Especially now with Souray, Smid, Visnovsky and Grebs out of the picture. Or is this something your anger management therapist would discourage you from doing?

I'm with you on the quality of chances factor. On it's own this doesnt tell us a lot, if you factor in the plus minus at even strength it might tell you something. Sure Staios's numbers look pretty bad when you consider the number of chances given up but what if the other team isnt scoring on those chances? Souray and Vis were giving up the fewest chances but what if there were a larger portion of goals scored on those chances?

Out of curiosity, is there any reason to believe that there's a significant difference in quality of chance given up?

I've heard this tossed around before but I've never seen any explanation for it; it seems improbable to me that a guy who gives up a lot of scoring chances is especially good at limiting really high quality scoring chances, or that a guy who gives up very few scoring chances only gives up the real juicy ones.

In any case, we have a strong indication that this isn't so, because Corsi (which just counts shots, period) and scoring chances (only counting realistic chances to score) line up very closely. It seems highly improbable that there's a wider gap between 'scoring chances' and Grade AAA scoring chances.

"Out of curiosity, is there any reason to believe that there's a significant difference in quality of chance given up?"

Of course there isn't... though it has been used to prop up some pretty insane arguments in the past i.e. Brodeur didn't face many shots, but the ones he did were high quality or the plethora of defences given to Khabibulin after he signed with Edmonton.

And Smid is out for the season as well now, giving the Oilers Tom Gilbert, Ray Whitney and not much else. 30th should just about be a lock now, as you have to figue Giguere has at least a couple of steals left in him.

I checked out the bit on Corsi numbers and I see a huge problem with trying to judge the defencemen on your team by it. Offensive defencemen will almost alway be better than defensive defencemen.

If Souray and Vishnovsky come out on the ice when the Oilers get a faceoff in the offensive zone they're much more likely to be on for a shot for. Conversely if Staios and Strudwick are sent out in the defensive zone they're much more likely to be on for a shot against.

The stats look interesting but in the end they're pretty easily explained.

"I checked out the bit on Corsi numbers and I see a huge problem with trying to judge the defencemen on your team by it. Offensive defencemen will almost alway be better than defensive defencemen.

If Souray and Vishnovsky come out on the ice when the Oilers get a faceoff in the offensive zone they're much more likely to be on for a shot for. Conversely if Staios and Strudwick are sent out in the defensive zone they're much more likely to be on for a shot against.

The stats look interesting but in the end they're pretty easily explained."

Not really Bruce.

Offensive Dmen may have more on the corsi for side, but at the same token they'd give up more on the corsi agaisnt side.

Your point about faceoffs is valid though and does have an impact, though not necessarily with this group here.

The number in () represents whether they had more Off zone draws (positive number) or Def zone draws (negative number).

Visnovsky started out in the bad end more than the good end, but blew Strudwick out of the water. In reality, if you are within +/-30 afte this many games you are close enough to an even split for arguments sake. The only big outlier is Chorney, but I'd love to see the number of icings he's been on the ice for, I suspect it would be rather high.

Wouldn't it be more likely that Lubo and Souray would get paired with a better forward group than a third pairing who might be stuck with moops like Stortini.

You'd suspect that, but Desjardins' QualTeam tells us that Souray and Gilbert were at the bottom end (below Staios and Strudwick and everyone else) and that Smid/Visnovsky were at the top.

It's something to take into account, especially for Gilbert, who is far, far worse than anyone else. These aren't supposed to be stand alone numbers: they're meant to be looked at in context with where players are starting, who they're playing with and who they're playing against. Although even then there's no excuse for being outshot 150 to 100.

Desjardin's rating numbers are just weighted plus/minus numbers (they don't include QualComp, QualTeam or ZoneStart). The reason they're worse is because while a goalie making one lucky save or missing one stoppable shot has a big impact, while Corsi has a far greater sample size and is less prone to that sort of error.

Additionally, like everything else, theyre as dependant on context as Corsi - moreso, actually, since percentage factors which influence plus/minus need to be adjusted for.

For everyone asking, I don't have time to break down Whitney's numbers with certain defence partners (which was the biggest thing I was trying to do above) but his overall ratio is 100 shots to 117 opposition shots.

He played tough opposition with middling teammates, and had a 49.7% zone-start rate.

He's never been especially outstanding by this metric because despite his offence and utility on the power play he's a bit of a mess in his own end (at least, every time I've seen him) and he doesn't use his size near as much as he should.

While everyone needs to understand that stats don't tell the whole story (~where have we heard that before?~) these numbers are resonably good indicators that prove what most of us already knew; if you were doing an office pool you'd pick Visnovsky ahead of Strudwick. I'm the kind of guy that likes to see it quantified like this, but I imagine many others will find a reason to pick it apart. Props, JW; I like the thought that went into this.

Although I'm roughly as confident in Steve Tambellini's management skills as I am in Bre-X stock, I'm hoping they find a balance.

Every team needs the puck-moving guys, and every team needs the guys they can send out in their own end with 1:00 left on the clock. Sometimes they're the same guy, but usually it's a balance between the two.

For next year,though, I don't think it matters: I'm all but 100% convinced they're going scorched earth on us.

I dont understand the bit about offensive Dmen having more on the against side, how does that make sense?

The other problem I see with these numbers is that it is just a ratio not actual numbers, correct? Doesnt that mean that there could be a wide skew if say Grebs and Struds only had a dozen shifts together. Fewer chances have a larger impact on the number. So if they end up playing together 3 teams over the course of the season and end up giving up 5 chances against and only 3 for you get a number thats going to look much worse than if they had played together 30 times and given up 2 more chances a game then they got.

Jonathan - Is it possible to re-do that chart with the players we currently have to work with? Especially now with Souray, Smid, Visnovsky and Grebs out of the picture. Or is this something your anger management therapist would discourage you from doing?

I bet Whitney's numbers would make him look like the second coming of Paul Coffee. Playing on any other team than the Oilers this season and being put on that list will make you look like a stud.

Corsi analysis is the best relative assessment I have ever seen. Given the uniform save percentage of goalies around the league of approximately .92 for most quality goalies it means one additional goal for each Corsi increase of 10 shots. If Souray is at 96 and Strudwick is at 146 thats about 5 more goals against Strudwick vs. Souray for every 100 shots by the Oilers. YIKES