January 8, 2012

75°. Nestor Molina, RHP, White Sox, 1/9/1989 – Molina’s best pitch is a 91-93 mph fastball that he commands very well. With just 16 walks in 130.1 innings in 2011 he’s a pitcher who hits his spots and doesn’t beat himself. He works fastballs low and outside painting the black and uses a sinker to get ground balls and a slider as an out pitch. His 4 seam is an average pitch with plus command, but the sinker is a plus pitch with movement and command. He slid right into the top of the White Sox SP prospect ranks. While he isn’t an Ace type, his pitch mix and command make him a nice bet to fill out the #4 spot in a rotation. His frame is a little small, so workhorse #3 is unlikely, but sometimes pitchers are just better than their peripherals. Molina is one of those guys. ETA 2013.

2) Addison Reed, RHP, Grade B+: The best closer prospect in baseball thanks to superior command of 93-97 MPH fastball and devastating slider. You can make a case to rank him ahead of Molina, if you think Molina will be a reliever.

3) Tyler Saladino, SS, Grade C+: 2010 seventh round pick out of Oral Roberts developed from draft sleeper into solid prospect. Good power for a middle infielder, and has some idea about the strike zone, scouts like his work ethic. Main issue now is if he can stick at shortstop, and I think he has a decent chance to do so.

4) Trayce Thompson, OF, Grade C+: Highest-ceiling bat in system, tapping into his power now and making good progress on defense. Kills lefties but has serious contact problems against right-handed pitching. Struck out 172 times while repeating Low-A. Has the tools to be a star slugger but also carries a high risk of failure.

5) Hector Santiago, LHP, Grade C+: Came out of nowhere to reach the majors (briefly) in 2011 thanks to development of a new screwball to go with 90-95 MPH fastball. Third pitch still needs work and it is unclear if he starts or relieves in the long run, although recent rumors indicate the Sox will continue to start him. Projects as number three/four starter if third pitch develops, or a power relief arm.

SCOUTING REPORT: I came very close to ranking Molina No. 1 overall in the White Sox system. As a Jay, he would have ranked in the six to eight range – which tells you a little bit about the depth of the two systems. Some online publications have referred to Molina as a “control pitcher” which has a negative connotation and implies that his stuff is below average. While the Venezuelan has plus control, his stuff is at least average – if not better. He has an 87-93 mph fastball and a potentially plus splitter that is his out-pitch. He also has a decent slider.

YEAR IN REVIEW: When his breaking ball improved to the point where the Jays organization felt it could be at least MLB average, Molina was moved into the starting rotation for good in 2011. He had a breakout season and reached double-A. The 22-year-old hurler spent the majority of the season in high-A where he posted a 2.45 FIP (2.58 ERA) in 108.1 innings. He showed his outstanding control by posting a walk rate of 1.16 BB/9. Molina also sent a large number of batters back to the dugout shaking their heads (9.55 K/9).

YEAR AHEAD: Molina received five late-season starts in double-A and showed that he was far from over-matched: 0.47 FIP, 0.82 BB/9, 13.50 K/9. He probably needs about half a season at double-A before moving up to triple-A and could be ready for the Majors by the end of the season. Chicago tends to be overly aggressive with some of its pitchers so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Molina in triple-A to begin 2012.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Molina has the makings of a No. 3 starter at the MLB level. The big question for him is his durability. Originally an outfielder, he was moved to the bump permanently in 2008 and has pitched more than 100 innings just once (2011). There is also some concern over his delivery and that, unless it gets smoothed out, he’ll be a high-leverage reliever at the MLB level.

1. Nestor Molina, RHP 01/09/1989 H: 6’1” W: 180 – (Nathaniel’s take) Nestor Molina had a breakout season in 2011, posting unbelievable strikeout-to-walk ratios at both High-A Dunedin (115/14 in 108 1/3 IP) and Double-A New Hampshire (33/2 in 22 IP). Originally a third baseman/outfielder, Molina converted to pitching in 2008, and wasn’t even a starting pitcher until this season, so his huge year caught many by surprise. While Molina’s pure “stuff” isn’t quite as good as his numbers suggest, it’s no slouch, either: he works at 89-94 mph and boasts a very good splitter. Molina will probably start 2012 in either Double-A or Triple-A, but he’s very polished and should end up in Chicago at some point during the season. Don’t be surprised if Chicago initially lets his two pitches work in relief upon his reaching the majors.

Our Video

Our Instinct:We had Molina #3 in our Blue Jays Top 10 and scouted him ourselves. Tom Belmont took the above video of Molina in July, and it’s been used on several notable sites. We love what Molina brings to the table, but as Tom said in his Prospect Instinct|Nestor Molina article, he’s not going to be an ace, nor does he have the body to be a workhorse in the middle. He figures to be a nice fit as a #4, however, as Nathaniel suggested, he could end up in the White Sox bullpen.

Since the White Sox traded Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays, who is in line to become the White Sox closer in 2012?
— Steve, Plainfield, Ill.

Assuming no other trades are made involving the bullpen, Jesse Crain and Matt Thornton would be the leading candidates to start the season. But Addison Reed is one of the major reasons why Santos became expendable.

Reed, who turns 23 just after Christmas, had a 1.26 ERA over 43 games during four Minor League stops last year. He struck out 111 and walked just 14 in 78 1/3 innings, not to mention his 12 strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings with the White Sox. The right-hander definitely stands as the team’s closer of the future, and the organization has no doubt he can handle the role.

December 7, 2011

… Molina’s best pitch an 89-93 mph fastball that he command very well. With just 16 walks in 130.1 innings in 2011 he’s a pitcher who hits his spots and doesn’t beat himself. He works fastballs low and outside painting the black and uses a sinker to get ground balls and a slider as an out pitch.

His 4 seam is an average pitch with plus command but the sinker is a plus pitch with movement and command.

The slider is average but he commands that pitch as well.

He has a changeup but it’s not a major offering despite his feel for it. It could continue to develop and give him a 4th offering in time. …

Prior to 2011, Molina had made just 77 career appearances, four of which were starts. Toronto had their sights set on giving him a chance to start, assigning him to the high Class A Dunedin rotation. He flourished in the move, throwing 130 innings between Dunedin and Double-A New Hampshire while striking out more than a batter per inning and walking about one per nine. Molina has above-average command of a fastball that ranges from 88-93 mph. He originally tried to turn his slurvy breaking ball into a slider, but he has shifted to using a curveball now. Molina has a legitimate out-pitch in his splitter, and he also shows feel for a straight changeup. His secondary stuff doesn’t jump off the page, but his fastball command helps it play up. He profiles nicely in the back of a rotation and will likely make his big league debut in 2012.

Molina has a solid 90-94 MPH fastball and keeps it low in the zone, picking up grounders. He also has a very good splitter. His slider is still a work-in-progress according to scouts, but his delivery adds deception and helps his stuff play up. His statistics last year were simply spectacular, and it is unusual to see a relief-to-starting conversion turn out this positively. He wasn’t some old guy tricking people; he was just 22 last year. If anything, Molina still doesn’t get the respect he deserves as a prospect. I currently have him rated as a Grade B+ prospect.

Molina features an intriguing four-pitch mix with an advanced feel for pitching. He’ll throw his fastball in the 89-92 mph range and complements it with a slider and a changeup. His best pitch, though, might be his splitter, a true plus offering with a ton of deception. Some have said he might be better-suited to be a top-flight bullpen/setup guy, but his stuff and command say he’ll get more time to start.

The return is exciting. Molina was given a B+ ranking from John Sickels, who rated him the second-best prospect in the Jays’ organization. In 130.1 innings between High-A and Double-A last year, Molina struck out 148 batters against a mere 16 walks. At 23 next year, he might only need a little more seasoning at Double-A before he can join the big leagues.

If he stays a starter, Molina will only need to be worth about as much as Paul Maholm has been worth over the last six years (13.2 WAR) in order to surpass Santos’ absolute value. Paul Maholm never had a minor league K/BB rate like Molina’s and was never a top-two prospect for the Pirates, but it’s still possible that Molina as a starter doesn’t achieve those heights.

“Nestor Molina is a guy that has a 90-96 mph fastball that bores in on right-hand hitters, that keeps the ball down in the strikezone, can hit outside corner, inside corner, take it upstairs if he needs to. His secondary stuff…he has a swing-and-miss type split that drops off the table, his slider is a plus slider, and his changeup is equally as effective. He obviously has a four-pitch mix. He walked (16) guys in a 130-some odd innings and is in winter league right now and pitching with the same success.”

… The 6-foot-1, 180-pound Molina spent most of the season with Dunedin, going 10-3 with a 2.58 ERA (31 ER/108.1 IP), 16 walks and 115 strikeouts in 21 games (18 starts). He was named to the Florida State League mid and postseason All-Star Teams.

A native of Valencia, Venezuela, Molina made his final five starts with New Hampshire, where he was 2-0 with a 0.41 ERA (1 ER/22.0 IP), two walks and 33 strikeouts. He finished the season with a streak of 16.0 consecutive scoreless IP over his final four outings.

Molina is 27-7 with a 2.21 ERA (72 ER/292.2 IP) and 277 strikeouts in 103 games (27 starts) over six seasons in the Blue Jays minor-league system. He was signed by Toronto as a free agent on April 2, 2006 and spent the 2006-07 seasons as an outfielder/third baseman before being converted to a pitcher. …

2) Nestor Molina, RHP, Grade B+: Ranking the Blue Jays pitching prospects is quite difficult. Although Molina hasn’t received as much press as some of the other guys, his performance was impeccable, I think his stuff is underrated, and he’ll get to the majors sooner than the others. Despite his season, he is still underrated by a lot of people.

and

Molina [ranking] is both stats and scouting reports. I think the scouting reports that are out there are underrating his stuff. But we will see.

Q: What is Nestor Molina’s stuff? He is making double a look very easy.

A: It’s all solid: fastball, slider, changeup, occasional curveball. Not sure you’d call any of his offerings a plus pitch, but he mixes them well and moves the ball around the strike zone. Not the sexiest scouting report, but that’s the type of guy who winds up in the big leagues.

“I would hope that we give him a little bit more seasoning, but he’s got the kind of ability that, there are certain guys that will force his way onto major league rosters. When you look at a young pitcher, you look at what kind of stuff he has, what kind of composure he has, and his ability to command the strike zone, and this guy does it in a way that very few do so. I’m not going to say that he can’t, and he won’t.”

I like the trade from what I hear so far. Molina’s stats are impeccable. And Addison Reed can take over.