Polls: Hoffman leads in New York 23

Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has taken the lead over Democrat Bill Owens according to the two most recent public polls in Tuesday’s closely-watched New York special election, continuing his month-long surge in the contentious House contest.

But the polls differ on the size of Hoffman’s lead, and on whether Republican Dede Scozzafava’s endorsement of Owens Sunday could push him over the top in the final 24 hours.

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Scozzafava abruptly announced Saturday that she was dropping out of the race and endorsed Owens the next day. The state assemblywoman’s name, however, will remain on the ballot.

A Siena Research Institute poll, conducted on Sunday, shows Hoffman emerging as the frontrunner in the wake of Scozzafava’s withdrawal, but Owens remains within striking distance. Hoffman leads Owens by five points, 41 to 36 percent with six percent going to Scozzafava. But the number of undecided voters doubled from nine percent in last week’s survey to 18 percent, giving Owens the opportunity to win over disaffected Scozzafava supporters.

In Scozzafava’s regional base in St. Lawrence, Jefferson and Lewis counties, where she led in polls throughout the campaign, Hoffman is now tied with Owens at 36 percent, with 19 percent undecided.

“The majority of Scozzafava’s supporters have gone to neither Hoffman nor Owens, but rather into the undecided column, which has doubled since Scozzafava ended her candidacy,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “Whichever campaign succeeds in convincing the undecided voters and then getting them to the polls tomorrow, will likely be looking at a victory tomorrow night.”

Inside the numbers, there’s a lot for Hoffman to be encouraged about. He is the only candidate of the three to have a net favorable rating, with 47 percent of districtwide voters viewing him favorably, while only 33 percent view him unfavorably. For the first time in the Siena poll, Owens has a net unfavorable rating, with 37 percent viewing him favorably and 38 percent unfavorably.

Hoffman, however, has lost ground with independent voters since last week’s Siena survey, and they now favor Owens 43 to 37 percent after leaning towards Hoffman in last week’s survey. But the third-party candidate has consolidated his support among Republicans, winning 63 percent of GOP voters.

A poll released Sunday evening by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling is even more encouraging for Hoffman, showing him with a commanding 17-point lead over Owens, 51 to 34 percent with Scozzafava retaining 13 percent. The poll, which surveyed 1,747 likely voters on October 31 and November 1—the most tumultuous period of the campaign—reported its findings in three stages: before Scozzafava withdrew from the race Saturday, after she withdrew but before she endorsed Owens, and after her Owens endorsement Sunday.

The PPP poll found Owens making up little ground, even after winning Scozzafava’s endorsement. Before she suspended her campaign, Hoffman led Owens by 18 points, and then by 14 points after she threw her support to the Democrat.

According to PPP, Hoffman holds large leads among both Republicans and independents: 71 percent of Republicans are backing him, and he holds a 52 to 30 percent lead over Owens among Independents.

One of the biggest differences between the two polls is the ideological makeup of the respondents. In its screen of likely voters, PPP expects next Tuesday’s electorate will be dominated by conservatives. President Obama only held a 39 percent approval rating among all respondents, with likely voters saying they voted for John McCain 51 to 43 percent. In the 2008 presidential election, Obama won the district with 52 percent of the vote.