Series Prediction: Heat in 5

If you were a full-fledged Heat fan in the late 1990s, you might. The 1999 series, in particular, is a particularly troubling precedent. That season was shortened by a lockout, to 50 games. The Knicks had talent, but had struggled to find themselves — in part, because they had new pieces (Latrell Sprewell, Marcus Camby). The Heat, with Jordan gone from the Bulls, was deemed elite, having captured a No. 1 seed.

And you remember what Allan Houston did.

This will be different, however.

First, it’s seven games, not five, a series length less prone to produce an upset.

And this time, the talent disparity is more significant.

Carmelo Anthony is a great scorer. He is nowhere near LeBron James’ equal as an all-around player, however. Provided that James plays as he has for the previous four months — and there’s no reason to believe he won’t — he will affect the game in many more ways than Anthony can. There are inherent conflicts on the Knicks roster (Tyson Chandler and Amare Stoudemire don’t fit particularly well) and they can’t exploit a potential Miami weakness (point guard play). They couldn’t exploit the latter even with Jeremy Lin; instead, they got dominated.

Can Anthony — with hot shooting from the likes of J.R. Smith and Steve Novak — steal a game or two?

Sure.

But the Knicks, unlike the Sixers or Magic, will have the Heat’s attention, from the start.

And that’s usually what is about for the Heat: attention.

When the Heat is focused, it can find a level few other teams can reach.