April 12, 2008

The Santa Anita Pick 6 Ticket

by Luckbox

After a few days of handicapping, the picks are in. BG and I have put together a ticket we believe has a great chance of bringing in a payday. Interestingly, we were on the same page in almost every race. That doesn't always happen. We're hoping that means we're locked in and not that we're both idiots.

Both of us used the early program to handicap. That means we were not influenced by the morning lines created by some random handicapper who may or may not know what he's doing. In some cases, that meant we didn't like the morning line favorite at all and in others, we were all over a horse that will likely bring us a good price. That's how you find Pick 6 tickets with big payoffs.

So without further ado, the picks:

Race 6: 7f Clm500002 Switzerland, 7 Sorcerers Spell, 9 Hit and Hope

BG and I were in agreement that Sorcerer's Spell and Hit and Hope are the top choices in this race. After getting through the whole card, we had enough in our budget to add another horse and it was Switzerland just ahead of the 8 horse, Exceeding.

RESULTS: It's over before it begins. The last horse we left off was Exceeding. He was actually my Dad's favorite in this race, but was just left off the ticket by BG and I. Hit and Hope ran up front most of the way, but faded. The favorite, Switzerland, was never a factor. Socerers Spell ran one of the worst races I've seen in awhile. Started well behind the pack. And I mean WELL. Was forced to unwind really early and came around the turn 12-15 wide. No one can win running a race like that. Very disappointing.

Race 7: 1m Md Sp Wt 50K1 Colgan's Chip, 5 Sun Lightning

Once again, BG and I locked in on the same two horses. We had some discussion about adding a third horse here, perhaps the 4, Express Rail, the 6, Star Nicholas, or the 11 Tote's Humdinger, but we like our choices.

RESULTS: Photo Finish. Colgan's Chip was the even money favorite (as expected) and ran wire-to-wire. A late charge came from Tote's Humdinger (a horse I liked, but not enough to include), but it appears as though we hit this race. Small consolation since we missed the first. We're still alive for a small 5 for 6 payoff.

As you can see, we selected 6 different horses from the 11 horses in the field. Although that may suggest a lack of confidence in our picks, it actually has more to do with the unique nature of the field. Okay, maybe not. This is a field full of horses with a chance to win this race. If we had to back just one, BG and I are fully behind Beyond Loaded.

RESULTS: Our top choice only got up for fourth, but our next two choices finished first and second. It ended up being an easier race than we thought. We even had the show horse on our ticket. We're now 2 for 3. I'd have rather had the 6 horse win with longer odds, but we'll take the 7 horse at 9/2.

Expect Banner Lodge to be heavily bet. He's the 8/5 morning line favorite and there's a lot of reasons to like this horse. The price, however, should be found on Informed. This is the kind of horse that could help us to a heftier Pick 6 payoff. Due to budget contraints, we left off the 7, Stella Mark and the 12, Cherokee Tear.

RESULTS: Well, hopefully my dad put some money down on Stella Mark. Stella is my niece's name. She paid $33.40 to win. And she eliminated any chance we had at a consolation payoff. The best we did was to get Gregorian Bay up to third. Banner Lodge was the heavy favorite, ran near the front most of the way, and ran out of steam. Informed hung around, but didn't have it at the end either.

Once again, BG and I were in agreement. It's Tiz West or Ez Dreamer. The last horse we added to the entire ticket was Capture the Call. This race didn't present many more horses we considered.

RESULTS: Well, it was Tiz West. Ran a great race tracking the leader the whole way before making a move just at the top of the stretch. Strong race. Our 2nd choice finished third. Too bad we're not still alive to our single in the 11th.

Race 11: 5 1/2f Md 320002 Mr. Elroy

This is it. It's the single. Frankly, there weren't very many other ways to go in this race. Maybe we would have included the 14, Last Black Lion, but, frankly, in order to get in under our budget, this made the most sense. Mr. Elroy should win this race.

RESULTS: Mr. Elroy won it as expected. A little scary, but he won it going away. That made us 4 for 6 for the day, which doesn't pay the bills. Unfortunately, we actually liked the 8 horse back in the 6th race, but didn't have the budget for him. And in the 9th race, well, I fault myself. Not only is the horse named after my niece, but she was my personal second choice, and I didn't push for her on the ticket. We were close, but it doesn't pay the bills. Thanks for investing. We'll try again soon.