However, Asche doesn’t have a history of leg injuries that have hindered his development. I don’t think anyone doubts that Gillies has the talent to succeed. The problem is that he can’t stay healthy when he gets on the field. If he shows that he can stay healthy for an entire season, his stock will rise like crazy. He hasn’t shown that ability yet and therefore the skepticism is warranted.

The big difference here is in the similar looking AB and equal G. Asche’s number is small, because he spent the other part of his season excelling at Clearwater, following a double jump from Williamsport. Gillies number is small, because he was hurt, yet again. Most of the lost time was to a concussion. That can’t really be his fault, although possibly his hearing problems contributed to the collision. His recovery from the concussion was unusually slow. Also, he ended the season with more leg woes. If he had stayed healthy, Gillies likely was our starting CF part of last season and we would be looking forward to a full year of him patrolling CF in PHilly, this season, with Worley still our #4 starter. Unfortunately, it was several years ago that Gillies first set foot in Reading’s stadium. Since then, he has been defined more by injury than by baseball success. He played less than half a season last year and that was a giant improvement for him.

Thank you for making this point, it is closer to a year and a half, but if we are going to handicap Ruf for his age (which we should) then we need to acknowledge that while not old for his level Gillies isn’t young anymore. For all the talk of Brown not being good he is only a year older than Gillies .

I voted for Tocci. Even though he is a long way away from the majors, he has star potential (as others have previously noted). Aumont, Defratus, Greene, Watson were others I considered. I don’t get the love for Gillies. I think his likely outcome, IF he stays healthy, is a 4th outfielder. And that’s if he stays healthy.

Honestly, I voted for Tocci previously, as well as Gillies. I have never been this wishy-washy with my rankings (i.e. like Tocci one day more; prefer Gillies the next). Either way, I think Gillies production last year was better than I expected. And pre-injuries, I liked what I saw of him in Phillies Spring Training. We’ll see. I like them both. A lot.

I’m not saying he doesn’t have the potential to be a very good player- but ‘star potential’ might be a bit much without much power. I take a list and I look at it as a trade- which guy wouldn’t I trade for one of the others. From that list it’s Aumont for me.

This is 100% correct. I voted for Tocci here, but there certainly is not hint at present that his upside is more than Revere, because there is no credible hint of power to come. Tocci is this high on potential, largely because of speed, athleticism, defense, and trusting the scouts that he will learn to hit for average as he becomes older and more age appropriate for the league he is in. He almost held his own in GCL, which is an accomplishment at 16. Really, all the choices here are flawed in some way. I may need to promote Aumont up the list as my next pick.

I agree—I find it very believeable that if Aumont was with a team like Detroit and was thrown in the closer role that he could have insanely good numbers. Not saying he would but with his stuff it could happen. I don’t see that for anybody else at the highest level this year.

Voted for Aumont over Tocci but expect I’ll be voting for Aumont again at #11. I also like Gillies potential but he’s needs to have a healthy season before I can justify ranking him above a few others who are still out there.

I went with Watson here. It was between him and Tocci. With two plus-pitches, I figure Watson has about the same chance of fulfilling his ceiling as a No. 1-2 starter than Tocci does to add the power needed to be an All-Star CF. And given the choice, I’d take the stud starting pitcher over the CF.

Especially since Tocci’s best tools are unlikely to change: speed and arm (which also translates to his defense). I still think that without power he could be a near All-Star level player.
Since a growth spurt could possibly mess with any of current tools I suppose he might have more risk than 19yr old with a similar profile.

I think it takes a really huge dose of optimistic dreaming and the big rosy-lens glasses to see Watson as a potential #1 starter. That is the old ‘he’s a #1 draft pick and we don’t know enough about him yet to lower his ceiling below infinity’ approach. Of course, we also don’t know enough about him to raise his floor above ‘guy who fails to reach AAA’.

I would echo Atown here, Watson’s ceiling is likely #3 starter, there is room for him to be a #2, I would view him similarly to Biddle. That isn’t to say that you shouldn’t be excited about him, throwing a potential #1 on a minor league pitcher should be reserved for the elite (the only ones off the top of my head are Bundy, Fernandez, Cole, Tallion, Walker, with some argument for Bradley and Wheeler).

I disagree. Obviously he’ll need to develop but how many kids his age have 2 plus (or maybe 1 plus and 1 near plus) pitches? Maybe our definition of #1 is different, but to me a #1 pretty much means one of the 30 best SPs. It’s a lofty position to reach but I think Watson has enough projection left that it can’t be ruled out already.

If that’s the threshold, then I can see not calling Watson a potential #1. But that seems like a pretty arbitrary cutoff point to me. I don’t know that I would call Cain a #1 even by my definition, but Hamels I would for sure.

OK, no matter the definition of what is a 1 and what is a 2 … if Watson’s ceiling is Cain or Grienke, and Tocci’s ceiling is (and I’m just projecting here) Austin Jackson or Andrew McCutchen, I’ll take the pitcher.

There is set number of pitchers that can be called true #1s. It has nothing to do with arbitrary rankings. It has to do with your ability. If you have two plus plus pitches, a good 3rd pitch, and plus plus command, you are going to probably be a #1, starter. If there are 35 guys that have that going for them, then there are 35 #1s.
I do not believe Watson has set his ceiling yet. He very well could be a #1. He already has a plus curve a good fastball and plus control for a HS pitcher. Who’s to say he won’t add velocity and get plus command

I compiled a list and got 9 name with ~5 more on the fringe for a variety of reasons (Cain, Grienke, Halladay, Sale, Sabathia). The only one who is outside the traditional definition is Dickey who has one 80 grade pitch that is near historic (to be fair though a knuckleball is a changeup and breaking ball all rolled up into one).

The other thing you need is plus plus makeup and durability to go along with the stuff. That and you need the consistency to always look like that, it can’t just be flashes.

Tocci. All of the guys left, that are in full-season ball, are not projected as regulars or starting pitchers. Of the ss guys, Tocci and Watson probably have the most upside. I took the position player.
In the last thread, the argument that Aumont should be in the top 10, if Ethan Martin is in the top 10, made me rethink my placement of the two players. Aumont does have closer stuff, so if you believe Martin may wind up in the bullpen, why not Aumont over Martin?

Doesn’t Inciarte provide us with the paradigm to not rank Ruf, JDF and Aumont? Whatever your cup of tea VOR is correct IMO you cannot have Martin above JDF or Aumont. Well I guess you could but I wouldn’t. And if you are going to have those guys available what about Rosenberg?

My list doesn’t include those guys because in my mind they have graduated to the big club. having those guys in the vote kind of muddies the water.

I need to double check service time with Rosenberg but he is certainly eligible as is Diekman who should be on the voting list soon. Making the big leagues is not the end of development and just because you are there does not make you necessarily better. You rank Martin much better than Aumont if you think there is hope that Martin can be a starter, because even as a #4 starter he has more value. Also expect some discussion on Inciarte towards the back of this list. He will be judged as a speedy defensive first center fielder who hasn’t played above A ball, the fact that he is in the majors is irrelevant. The goal is to make an impact at the show, not just getting there (except for the player or anyone tied to the emotional success of a player where making it is a big deal and awesome experience)

I agree. I think Inciarte was taken in case the CF trade did not happen. Given that his skill set is almost the same as Revere, Jiwan James (who could have been lost in Rule5) and Gillies, I cannot see why the Phillies would use a roster spot for such redundancy. Given the CF depth, I do not see much benefit in ‘stashing’ him for 2013 and looking to develop him further for a brighter future.

The only way this guy makes the team is if the Phils feel they need Ruf’s bat and he really can’t play LF and they feel he needs a full time defensive/pinch runner late game replacement. They would have to keep him over someone else already penciled in for the roster so the chances of this occuring are very slim.

Interesting. I love Rosenberg and think he is at worst a great long reliever candidate and, at best, a very serious dark horse breakout candidate for the number 5/6 starter role. He has a huge arm – as in 98 mph heater arm – but he is 27 which for me makes it sort of hard to rank him as a prospect, although I guess technically he is since he will still be a rookie next year. Personally, i would be fine is Lannan pitched in long relief and Rosenberg served as fifth starter. I think Lannan has the inside track but the Phillies are smart enough to be flexible with the back end of the rotation – it is and should be a competition all year long; best man gets the ball.

Agree on JDF, Aumont, Ruf. They will be playing in CBP this summer. I have a hard time reading about what Tocci will be like while I look at a good defensive catcher slip out of the top ten. If he doesn’t belong, neither does Tocci. The old proximity versus potential argument goes on.

I agree that at low Minors the preference is toward position players. Tocci has the potential to be a star player. Not saying he will be or that road is not long, but I think that he has to be considered a Top 10 prospect.

I was happy the Phillies tried to move Aumont to a starting pitcher. His pitch arsenal is certainly diverse enough to be a starting pitcher, his frame appeared sufficient, and the Mariners either were protecting him on innings or trying to aggressively promote him as a reliever. His ‘upside’ would likely have been #2 and with control (unlikely to happen) possibly #1.

Unfortunately it did not work out as Aumont could not harness his control and spiraled even further out of his element. I doubt the adversity was beneficial but hopefully he can make progress as a stud reliever.

Watson here. Similar reasons to what other have stated. I look at Tocci as almost equal in value, even after accounting for potential injury. Quite close and so I do the trade calculation many on here do. Tocci might turn out to be a 3-4 tool CF (I really don’t care about “hit for average” as a tool, but “hit” includes discipline which implies walks – I don’t know that the concensus is that he will necessarily do that…I personally think he will so I consider him a 4 tool CF). Based on what we’ve read about him, (and trying to be reasonable in my assessment of these type of “kids”), Watson is a guy who might have the stuff to be a #3 starter. IMO it’s easier to project that based on scouting than to project Tocci achieving a true “hit” tool.

I would easily take a MLB regular #3 starter over a MLB regular 4 tool CF. And so in the end, I do the injury flameout consideration, which I think everyone will agree is kinda hard to put a value on with no “recurring type” injury history to speak of, (Watson has diabetes, which I consider to be a controllable medical condition, Tocci had that little “issue” last year that is hard to talk about without cringing). For me, the flame-out potential makes the two players very close, but Watson is just a little bit higher in my estimation. Either way, Tocci is likely winning #10 here.

Agree with basically everything you wrote here, and voted Watson for the same reason. I’ll be eager to see what Tocci does this year, but he’s still so, so young. We’re talking about a teenager with fewer than 150 PAs.

I’m eager to see him play–where do we think he’ll go? Lakewood on the Domingo Santana plan?

Ruben on Ethan Martin yesterday in philly.com:’ “His command was very good with us, I guess he had had some issues with throwing his breaking ball for strikes, and I guess he had stopped throwing it for a while. But he came and threw for us, and it’s an above-average Major League breaking ball. Hopefully he stays with it and continues to master it. “He’s got good stuff. He’s got four pitches. When he came to us, his delivery was good. He threw the ball pretty darn well, and hopefully he continues that progress.”

That sounds like the other reports I have seen. He is fairly athletic and was a shortstop prospect as well out of high school, the delivery is pretty good and repeatable. The problem as RAJ said is once he can’t locate the breaking ball he becomes fastball dependent, starts overthrowing it and then can’t find the strike zone at all. Normally when RAJ says something I take it with a huge grain of salt but this matches other sources (BA, BP, and others). Definitely looks like they think he will be starter

I always weigh ceiling and floor on each vote. A stud closer is a pretty good ceiling for a prospect, and I think Aumont’s floor is pretty high. He’s going to spend the next few years as at least a part time major leaguer. Even if he stinks, teams are going to keep giving him chances because of his stuff. I like the ceilings on Tocci and Watson, but their floors are so, so low that I can’t put them ahead of Aumont.

For me, if Aumont is anything less than a lights out closer he has so little value i will then go upside. I went with mean Larry Greene and will continue to until he wins a spot. Part of this is the fact i am just not confident Aumont will put it ALL together to be a closer. Sure, he will probably be a 7th/8th inning guy but even that is no guarantee if he puts a couple of those crazy multiple walk games in a row. Also, Gillies needs to show me a full season of no injuries or he stays really low in my rankings. That’s just my 1 and a 1/2 cents..

Yea, Larry Greene really……. Nothing wrong with projectable power especially if he sticks in Left. I think our main difference is confidence in Aumont. I won’t rank a reliever i don’t think can put it all together over a guy who is thought to have 80 power. That is just me but i also don’t see how my opinion is so far from reality.

Given what we are paying Adams, I’d hardly say a reliever other than a lights-out closer has little value. Papelbon is a little less than lights out as a closer and you are looking at $50 million there. Even if Aumont turns out as nothing more than a 7th inning reliever in the Phillies scheme of things, that is still $2-3 mill/yr. of value. I think he can be more than that. People who rank prospects tend to really downgrade even excellent prospect relievers, but GMs continue to pay them on a par with #3/4 starters.

Never said they did. I said they often get $2-3 mill. #3 starters often get $6,8,even10 mill. But you didn;t address that non-lights-out-closer-relievers like Adams or mediocre closers don’t get a hefty pile of cash, because in reality they do.

I have to apologize for my post the other day. I was 95% frustrated with this Free AEC stuff as I was catching up the last weeks worth of comments and 5% frustrated with this polling. The reality is it is nobody’s fault but my own that I allow the Free AEC stuff to bother me and as a few of you said in response to my post, everyone is entitled to their own opinion. I appreciate the kind words many of you shared and I will continue to share what tidbits I can contribute this summer. This is a wonderful site and the majority of you are great baseball fans with good, passionate opinions that I enjoy hearing. I hate that there are a few commenters that levy either personal attacks on others or just throw out nonsense (Free AEC) that adds no value, but I shouldn’t let it take away from all the great contributions of the rest of you. So one big apology to pp.com and glad to see y’all are finally voting Tocci :).

Glad you reconsidered.. Don’t let anything get you down on this site. We are just sitting around rating marginal prospects from a rather weak system. No pressure. words are just words.. your idea may be as valuable as any other. I like Aumont next maybe..

I see 110 people were up last night and all 110 of them voted for Austin Wright and zero voted for Tocci. It is really pathetic, how much time someone would spend, harassing a WordPress minor league baseball internet site.

Interesting discussion here about value of closers and then separately the issue of age of some of the Phils prospects.

I went Tocci again of course as I heavily weigh the upside argument, ie, would you rather have the next potential Mike Trout or the next potential Jonathan Papelbon? Trout is a tough one to get via trade or free agency, whereas a top notch closer much tougher. Having said that, if this team is willing to pay a closer $13M a year, I sure would see big value in Aumont being able to replace Papelbon when his contract is up and save approx $10M a year for that role. I think when it comes to relievers maybe we should value the true closer a bit more and the next level down a bit less even.

As for age, it really is amazing to me that some are so critical of Dom and at the same time so complementary of Ruf. I have no idea what Ruf is going to do this year, or in his career, but while I’m skeptical I’m very excited to watch it unfold. As for Brown, I really feel like a breakout year is a possibility. He should be well over the hump with his wrist, I think the pressure on him to perform is much less than it had been in previous years, he’s had time to work with his swing change, and it just seems like if he can stay healthy this year we may see big things. Would be quite the lift to this organization if Brown developed into a legit everyday RF and Ruf the same in LF.

Ben Revere was a 2.4 WAR player last year, Papelbon was a 1.6 WAR player. Madson was a 1.5 WAR player in his best years.
Even if Tocci never gains any power, he has more upside than any of these relievers. Even the closers.

I think a healthy Madson would have been invaluable last year in the eighth inning. Pure conjecture but at least 10 more wins. The staff was miserable in the 8th. Hopefully Adams gets it done –if not one one of the young arms will be in position to make or break the season. Love the stuff from Aumont and Diekman. Just need to get it done.

“I think a healthy Madson would have been invaluable last year in the eighth inning. Pure conjecture but at least 10 more wins.”

You can’t be serious?

If the Phillies had Kimbrel and Chapman in their pen in 2012 to go along with Papelbon they would not have won more than an additional three games. The length of their extra inning losses would simply have been longer.

“I think a healthy Madson would have been invaluable last year in the eighth inning. Pure conjecture but at least 10 more wins.”

You can’t be serious?

If the Phillies had Kimbrel and Chapman in their pen in 2012 to go along with Papelbon they would not have won more than an additional three games. The length of their extra inning losses would simply have been longer.

Another way to measure players value is by salary. Top closers make between $8-12M while elite position players and aces make $25M. I think legitimate #3 starters make about $10M which certainly can be debated.

Given those estimates I put the value of a consistent closer similar to that of a #3 starter. However, I will agree that projecting failed starters as ‘consistent’ closers seems unlikely. The variability of most relievers from year to year seems to confirm this risk.

If Martin cannot make it as a starter, will he have enough control on two plus pitches to become a stud closer? Once we bump down to top setup guys the cost appears to be about $5M which would be more along the lines of a #4 starter. Certainly some value there but again reliever consistency is tough to find.

I would like to see a comparison of team WARs (+ replacement team wins) to actual team wins across MLB year-by-year. Such a study could be part of a broader analysis of when WAR is useful and when it is not.

Honestly, there are a group of player – Tocci, Aumont, Gillies, Watson, Greene, Wright – who you could easily argue belong in the tenth spot – I find it amusing that people are so passionate about this when there are so many question marks surrounding each of these players – all have upside. As i view there are tiers of prospects with this team – these guys are in the third tier.

Buddy, I enjoy reading your contributions to the site, and I am glad that you have reconsidered. I think, overall, we discount quality relief pitching, but then go get journeymen and pay them a lot of money. So, a relief prospect has to have a little value, I would think. How about you?e

I can see it both ways. I tend to give significant value to Aumont and Giles because I believe both can and will be closers in the big leagues someday, with Giles being the better of the two. I think pitchers with that capability have good value.

For me the next group down is DeFratus, Diekman, and Simon, who I don’t believe will be closers but could end up being decent setup relievers, which carry much less value than a closer due to salary differences.

The last group is the group that I give almost no value to, which would include guys like Schwimer, Herndon, and Cloyd, who I believe are either long men or mop up middle relief type roles and are more than easily replaceable through free agency and non-tenders at very low financial cost.

The one wildcard to me was Bonilla, as his stuff would put him in the first group in my opinion, but some people questioned whether he would have the right makeup and maturity to be able to handle late inning pressure situations. Having said that, he had alot of time to mature and grow up if you believe what you hear and I for one would be willing to give an arm like that some more time to grow up.

What did LGJr do so wrong last year that he is getting no love here at #10…our first pick a few years ago who had a good year last year and is still in lf as opposed to being moved to 1b…I like Tocci too and probably have him too low at 15 but LGJr was drafted that high for a reason.

I am still skeptical of LGJ because although his batting average and OBP look good, he struck out in 25.7% of his at bats and he had a BABIP of .378. Lots of strikeouts and good fortune on balls in play is usually not a recipe for sustainable success. Finally, he didn’t show a ton of power in games. I know it is a tough ballpark to hit in and generally a tough hitters’ league, but nothing about what he did really stands out to me. I’m probably being too harsh, but I do think he did a few things wrong last year and that has hurt his value.

I’m still encouraged by his ability to draw walks. Enough that I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for now with the power part of his game. He’s not in my personal top 10 but he’s not far from it and I still have pretty high expectations for him next season.

Good timing Matt.
Tocci just barely got back the lead. He was 10 behind when I started a post response.
I had Tocci very high in my rankings but can agree that Wright could be pretty high n after earning pticher of his league honors. I do not think he currently projects into the Top10 but all these guys are high risks.
We are discussing players who all have significant hurdles and risks to overcome. Phillies own Dom Brown was a Top5 prospect in all of baseball. What is his current value?

Have followed this site for about a year but never commented before……I’d really like to thank you for all the work and effort you put into this. So many of the posts reflect people who are interested and informed. Keep up the great work!