— Bringing back Francoeur for next season means the Royals outfield you will see tonight against the Red Sox is the exact same outfield you will see on Opening Day 2012. The Frenchman is going to cash a hefty check, the Royals will certainly tender a contract to Melky Cabrera and there is talk of an Alex Gordon extension. Hell, there’s a decent chance that this is the outfield we will see on Opening Day 2013. This has to be an indictment of Lorenzo Cain. Cain, who is hitting .306/.376/.506 in Omaha, after tonight, has more than 600 plate appearances in his career at the Triple-A level. It would seem he doesn’t have much left to prove.
However, I’ve heard the rumblings… A hole in his swing, the lack of the necessary skill set that would ease a transition from the high minors to the big league level, and so on. I haven’t seen Cain all that much, so I’m not qualified to comment on his skills (or lack thereof). What I can comment on is that it is fairly obvious that the organization doesn’t believe he’s part of the future.

Think about it… We have seen a tremendous influx of young talent. Nearly every position player who was regarded as a prospect and opened the 2011 season in Omaha is with the big club. Except Cain. It’s also worth noting, the Royals were quick to pull the trigger on Kila Ka’aihue earlier this year. I may be reading too much between the lines here, but I’m thinking the Royals regard Cain as another flavor of Hawaiian Punch. Good for Triple-A, not so good in the majors.

— There was a tweet from Greg Schaum that this move says more about the (lack of) development of Wil Myers than anything and I’m inclined to agree. Myers was moved to the outfield in order to fast track his bat to the major leagues. However injuries and a lackluster season (.254/.354/.373 in 348 plate appearances) have pushed his timetable back at least a full year. Most troublesome has been the lack of power development. If Myers repeats Double-A next year, it’s possible he won’t arrive in Kansas City until 2014. Francoeur gives the Royals cover. It’s expensive cover, but it’s still cover.

— I understand that with the season Francoeur is having, he was going to shop for a two year deal. That doesn’t mean the Royals had to give it to him.

He is hitting for a higher slugging percentage, which is nice. But that’s because he’s already set a career high for doubles with 35 while maintaining his home run rate of one long ball roughly every 31 at bats.

Let’s talk about value for a moment. Here are his fWAR values going back to 2006 which was his first full season in the majors.

2006: 1.1
2007: 3.8
2008: -0.8
2009: 0.3
2010: 0.6
2011: 2.3

Yes, this has been quite the rebirth for Francoeur, but we cannot ignore the fact that in his three previous seasons, he posted a 0.1 fWAR. Combined. It is entirely possible that Kevin Seitzer has worked his magic and Frenchy has figured it all out. I suppose. But there’s no evidence to suggest this is the case. His walk rate is a career high at 6.6%, but he’s reached 6.0% three times previously, so this isn’t some sort of crazy development. It’s nice, but not out of the realm of possibility. His contact rate is 80.2%, which is actually lower than either of his two previous seasons where he posted a .309 and .300 on base percentage respectively. His line drive rate of 18.8% is right in line with his career rate.

Overall, he is swinging less, offering at just 53.9% of all pitches. That’s below his career rate of 58.1% and represents the lowest rate of his career. Maybe that’s it… A change in approach have yielded an improvement in results. Because his other rates haven’t moved all that much. (Interesting side note: He’s looking at a called third strike in 20% of all strikeouts. The highest caught looking rate in his career.)

While The Frenchman is having one of his better seasons, the fact that his secondary rate statistics have remained unchanged from the last several years, lead me to believe that the Royals won’t get the kind of production they seem to be counting on over the next two seasons.

— Going by the raw dollars, it looks like the Royals are expecting a pair of 1.5 WAR seasons from Francoeur. Again, I can’t help but feel that’s a shade on the optimistic side, given he’s played six full seasons and has topped that mark only twice (counting this year.) I know the defenders will argue he’s only 27, so he’s at his presumed peak, but I’ll counter with my previous argument that he’s never shown the ability to sustain an above average level of production.

Soon after the extension was announced, Joe Sheehan tweeted that because Francoeur was hitting .316/.352/.623 through May 4 and only .264/.320/.411 since, the Royals basically gave a guy a two year deal on one good month of production. Joel Goldberg countered with the fact Frenchy has hit .308/.369/.503 since July 1, and that should count for something. It’s a sound return volley and it really serves to underscore the fact he’s an extreme streak hitter. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, but if you’re going to live with the steak, you’re going to have to eat dog food every once in a while.

As the law of averages play out though, the cold streaks will prove to last longer than the hot ones. By the time 2013 rolls around, instead of talking about hot months for Francoeur, we could be reduced to discussing hot weeks.

— In Francoeur’s defense, I saw in several quarters where it was argued he was basically a platoon hitter, dreadful against right handed pitching.

Makes sense… Except for the fact it’s not necessarily true.

Granted, he does do worse against righties. That’s normal for a right-handed hitter. Here are his splits for 2011:

Vs LHP – .315/.379/.602
Vs RHP – .266/.314/.421

Many of my colleagues will look at that split and come to the conclusion he can’t hit a right hander. Except the league average right handed batter is hitting only .247/.307/.392 against right handed pitching this year.

I’m sure if The Frenchman sticks around for another 10 years, he will evolve into a platoon type player. However, I don’t see that happening during the life of his contract extension. Granted, he’s doing better this year against right handers than he’s done in quite some time, but like his cumulative stats, he’s not doing that much better where we would sit up and call it an outlier.

There’s definitely a difference in performance base on the handedness of the pitcher, but at this point, it doesn’t warrant a platoon situation.

— I’m extremely frustrated that the Royals didn’t move on Alex Gordon first. Yes, like The Frenchman, Gordon has had some horrible seasons. But realize that Gordon has seen his seasons cut short by injury and be being jerked around by the organization. He has almost 2,000 fewer plate appearances than Francoeur. This year, while Frenchy is playing well, Gordon is having an outstanding all around season.

I know that there has been talk of extension but the Royals want to wait until the end of the season… why is there a double standard here?

— Francoeur doesn’t annoy me as much as my basement dwelling comrades, and I had come to terms with the fact he was most likely going to return for the 2012 season. The extra year and total monetary package seems like the classic Dayton Moore play where he misreads the market and makes too strong of a move. He’s done this time and again in varying degrees. There’s the gross overpayment like he did with Jose Guillen. There’s the over valuing of his guys like we saw with Kyle Davies last winter. And there’s deals where he jumps head first into the trade market without taking the proper temperature like he did when he brought Mike Jacobs to Kansas City.

Moore has also fallen into a trap where he looks at only the last year of numbers and ignores the entire track record. Again, that certainly happened with Jacobs and to a lesser extent with Jose Guillen. He makes the mistake of ultimately paying full price for a player who can’t possibly maintain the level to justify the cost. That’s just a fancy way of saying he buys high.

I’m a fan of The Process and I feel like it’s the proper method to give the Royals the best shot at winning. But we have to realize that even a wildly successful Process will still leave management with holes to fill on the roster. This is where Dayton Moore and the Royals brain trust have failed miserably time and time again.

Now matter how great the minor league system, poor free agent acquisitions or misreading the trade market could completely derail The Process. I had hoped after this winter when the Royals pursued low risk, low cost free agents, that was a signal that GMDM had figured something out regarding how to build his team. It doesn’t feel like any lessons were learned.

Francoeur alone won’t prevent the Royals from winning in the future. Rather he’s a symptom of a much larger problem. One that doesn’t seem to be going away.

I’ll wrap this up by restating that I don’t hate Jeff Francoeur. I think for the money he’s been paid this year, he’s been a good value for the Royals – on and off the field. But there comes a point when you can overpay and cause the value to disappear, and I think that is what has happened in this case. Francoeur has been playing in this league for six seasons and has had a grand total of two good ones. The odds are long he’ll put up two more during his extension.

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Written by LastRoyalsFan about 4 years ago.

Craig, can you explain why all the stat gurus seem to think that it is possible for Gordon to have experienced a ‘rebirth’ and turned the corner but that it could not happen for Francoeur? It seems like this year Seitzer has gotten all three outfielders hitting to their strengths. I don’t understand why the blogosphere seems to think that Gordon’s performance is the real deal while Frenchy’s (and to many Melky’s as well) is only an aberration.

Your opinion seems to be the prevailing wisdom among the KC bloggers and I can’t seem to get why we’re more than willing to give Gordon benefit of the doubt but not the other outfielders.

Written by Jamboslice about 4 years ago.

It’s 13.5 for two years. It’s not breaking the bank. We all expect Moose, Hosmer, Gio and Short Stop Jesus to get better right? Much, much better! Even if he goes back to his norm we will still have alot of production from other spots we aren’t getting this year. Plus, if he doesn’t live up to it they can move on Cain. I don’t understand the hate for this.

Written by Kyle about 4 years ago.

Francoeur has WELL outperformed his contract this season. Based on WAR, he should be getting paid over 10mil, and they are paying 1.5mil. I would see nothing wrong with this signing if the Royals had a manager that would set him at least against tough righties. He doesn’t have to sit against all righties, but when you have an opportunity to give him a day off, you take it. Next season will be key, b/c hopefully they will be competing. Francoeur seems like a good teammate/leader, and you can’t have all 20-25 year old rookies on the team. This team is very young, and could use some players with experience.

I think it was Gordon wanted to wait until the end of the season to discuss extension. From what I have read, he is very interested in staying. The Royals don’t typically do in season extensions, but will do it on occasion. I think I read Soria’s was in season, and Greinke was after the season.

Written by airgoesit about 4 years ago.

I’m much more confident in Frenchy and Gordon right now than I am Moose. Point is, Francoeur should be batting #6 or 7, behind Butler at 5. At that position his numbers and hack-tastic tendencies are fine. The lack of a (threatening) power bat behind Hosmer is (will) holding this club back. ie, the lack of progression (early promotion of) Moose hurts with the cooked spaghetti bats in the 7-9 slots.
Nitpicking, I know, but we’re just not there yet. I hate the amount, but we have money to spend for the next couple years and resigning was a good move. The dude is a well above avg RF and great clubhouse guy which is also important on a young (understatement) team.
-guy who threw up in his mouth when he was initially signed

Isn’t it true that the Royals don’t negotiate contracts with players during the season unless the player initiates it? So it would seem that Frenchy initiated the negotiations while Alex may be content with waiting until the off-season. Extending Jeff first doesn’t bother me that much right now. If we end up not extending Gordon, I’ll be frustrated. But I don’t think the order says anything about the importance of the player. If anything, it makes me think that Alex is getting a bigger pay day (as he should) so the talks may need to wait until the off-season.

On another note, Frenchy has outperformed his contract this year, and I think the reason 2 years, $13.5 million seems like overpaying/too much to Royals fans is that we still remember Gil Meche and Guillen. We are also cheap, so we don’t understand putting up the money it takes to have a successful ball club.

Written by Abh about 4 years ago.

Can’t say I know how the negotiations went, but it would seem to me more in the Royals interest to pay Frenchy something like $8 or $9 million for one year, than 13.5 over two. If he manages a better offer and you are inclined to match it, so be it.

Also, I really hope the braves scouts really like Lorenzo Cain. Or at least some team with AAA pitching and a desire for prospects does.

Written by Abh about 4 years ago.

Oh, and I think airgoesit nailed it: no problem with Francoeur in RF —- as long as he is batting 6th/7th!

When Melky and Frenchy were signed in the off-season, I don’t think anybody thought they would do this well or that they were more than mid-season trade bait.

This signing seems like it has more to do with the success of the outfielders this year – since you can’t reasonable project Cain and Myers doing better than Melky and Frenchy in 2012, you go with major league experience over prospects. Keep in mind, Melky and Frenchy are around 27 – generally considered entering baseball’s prime years. Cain will probably bump Mitch in 2012.

Written by Zack Daddy about 4 years ago.

Great point, LastRoyalsFan! I was going to say the same thing. And, Melky? How ’bout we give Seitzer some credit. Maybe Yost, too.

GONE ARE THE DAYS OF MATTS STAIRS BEING OUR RIGHTFIELDER!

Written by Big Lee about 4 years ago.

Here are Cain’s “major league” numbers from 2010.

2010 Majors .306 43 147 17 45 11 1 1 13 61 9 28 7 1 .348 .415 .763

Isn’t he supposed to be a good defensive player as well?

Written by Zack Daddy about 4 years ago.

P.S. Our lineup is good enough. Our rotation is the problem.

Written by GoDawgGo about 4 years ago.

Craig – long time reader, first time poster. Great job you, Clark and Nick do here.

I’m in agreement with most of the commenters…don’t hate this move, and am hopeful the improved Frenchy season is a trend, not an anomoly. Let’s also consider how young and inexperienced our non-outfielder position players are. Doesn’t it make sense to have sprinkled through out the line-up some seasoned guys, and the fact that Frency is a young seasoned guy, with leadership skills, can’t be overlooked.

Finally, while we al know pitching is the currency of baseball, maybe in the Royals world, our young outfielders can serve as currency. We certainly have a deep group in our minors, which could someday net us something in return.

Written by Steve y about 4 years ago.

I believe Dayton’s mistake was bringing Moose up before he earned it, not keeping Cain down when he had not. I am also defining earning it unfairly, as a combination of both what you have done and your competition has done. By this definition, Hoz was knocking and Kila was stumbling. Gio was knocking, and Getz is too weak with the bat to hold him off. Cain is knocking, but only with the same numbers that Melky has, and major league numbers trump minor leave ones. Moose was not knocking, and Betemit was playing good. We are better off without the Moose mistake, not by making another by bringing Cain before he earns it.

LastRoyalsFan – I tried to address the Gordon/Francoeur difference in the post. This is his first full big league season since 2008, which remember, was an improvement over his rookie year. So if you throw out his 2009 & 2010 seasons (which given the circumstances, I think is fair to do) then you have three consecutive years with steady improvement. Plus, as I mentioned, Gordon has about 2,000 fewer plate appearances than Francoeur.

DanL – You go with experience over prospects if you expect to contend. Do we honestly think they will be contenders next year?

GoDawg – Welcome and thanks for the compliment. I think GMDM will have to dip into his collection of prospects if he’s going to get pitching help. But I don’t think the outfield prospect pool is what we could describe as “deep.” Another reason for this extension.

Jamboslice – I’m not hating on the move. Again, I would have been fine for one year for Francoeur. But my underlying point is giving him a two-year deal is shortsighted and points to issues that will continue to undermine The Process.

Written by Travis about 4 years ago.

That was quite the offensive breakdown that certainly considers merit… but you forgot about the defensive value that he also adds to the team.

Written by Randy about 4 years ago.

I give Dayton a 95% for what he has done in the last year. These same people that are complaining about this decision thought that Frenchy was a complete bum and Melky for that matter. The Royals outfield as it is today is a top 5 outfield and cheap. I think everybody is reading into the Cain thing all wrong. THERE IS NO ROOM right now for Cain thats it. They probably really like him but we have 3 plus outfielders in front of him. An injury will eventually happen to this offense as well. 7 million a year is adequate for Frenchy even if he does regress a little in years to come. “Experts” stop complaining and trust Dayton, I think it is clear he is one of the best.

Written by Randy about 4 years ago.

By the way Craig I read the Blog daily and love it. Keep up the good work.

Written by Clark Fosler about 4 years ago.

Travis – I think we all succomb to the ‘our outfielders all have great arms, therefore they are great defenders’ syndrome. Francouer is basically a league average rightfielder when you consider his arm and range in combination.

Written by Kyle about 4 years ago.

How do you fine contention? Winning World Series? Or putting the team in a situation to win the AL Central? Or getting over .500? I don’t think they are winning the WS next year, but I definitely think they can get over .500 and I think they can contend in the AL Central next year. The offense, defense, and bullpen are set. The rotation has 3 middle of the rotation starters now (Duffy, Hoch, Paulino). Throw in Monty and that’s 4 middle of the rotation starters next year, and two possible #1/2 starters (Duffy and Montgomery) for the future. They don’t have a true #1 or really a great #2, but this is a start.

The FA market doesn’t look great, but that needs to be Moore’s life this offseason. He needs to get a #1 or #2 starter and this team becomes very interesting.

MattB – The way I read the article on the Gordon extension is the player (and agent) approached the Royals to open discussions. They were told to wait.

“They (the Royals) communicated that they want to wait until the season is over and go from there.”

Travis – I’ll echo Clark. Francoeur has a great arm, but his range isn’t anything to write home about.

Randy – Thanks for reading. Let’s bookmark this post and see if we feel the same way about $7 million if Frenchy is putting up a WAR under 1.

Kyle – Contention in the AL Central is .500.

The thought of GMDM attacking the FA market to look for a #1 or #2 starter scares me.

Written by SullivanRoyal about 4 years ago.

Craig, does this statement include all position players?

“Many of my colleagues will look at that split and come to the conclusion he can’t hit a right hander. Except the league average right handed batter is hitting only .247/.307/.392 against right handed pitching this year.”

Can you narrow it down to RH corner outfielders against RH pitching somehow?

Written by Adam about 4 years ago.

Great article, Craig. One of the main reasons I’m for the extension is that while Frenchy’s stats aren’t much different from his career line, the rest of the league has regressed to a point where he’s more valuable offensively. That alone makes me more confident that we’re not buying high on an individual year, but rather taking advantage of a league wide trend and understanding his new value.

Written by airgoesit about 4 years ago.

Well above avg in RF is probably an exaggeration, his zone rating and range factor are poor, but his fielding % is in the top half and he leads in assists. He won a gold glove out there, so he ain’t chopped liver. I’ll retract and call him average, but realistically what’s his replacement value?
With Cliff Lee, this team is a contender for the division next year. With a lightning in a bottle Gil Meche-type acquisition, this can be a .500 team. That’s contending enough for me to maintain a “veteran” presence. The only difference between us and Detroit is Verlander and 2-3 years experience.

Written by Abh about 4 years ago.

eyeball test: perhaps it’s due to overly high expectations (gold glove and all), but I’ve thought from opening day on that Francoeur looks pretty old and slow in RF… until it’s time to use his right arm.

Written by joe about 4 years ago.

This was inevitable lets be honest, I had the high/low at 9M so I guess I should be happy it was only 7M, I think he’s worth 5, maybe, on a good day.

I’m still hoping to find out it’s like 5M per with incentives to 7M and the right to send his ass to Omaha if he tanks.

But why would you lock him up before Gordon? and now you are basically going to have to pay Gordon 9, 10, 11M per right? maybe 12+ since our pay scale seems to be be based on your best season ever, 4 WAR 2011.

Dumb management from a team on a shoe-string budget, who the hell was going to let frenchy start, let alone offer even 5M for a backup.

Written by jim fetterolf about 4 years ago.

Given Frenchy’s current 2.2 fWAR and a total 3 year cost of about $16 million, he only needs to rack up 1.4 fWAR over the rest of the contract to break even at $4.5 million/WAR. Financially, I see very little risk in the deal and two years is hardly a major commitment. Orlando, Prades, Fletcher, Eibner, somebody should be ready in two years to replace him and Cain is available for next year, So Royals should be fine even if Frenchy turns into a platoon player in ’12. Given Jeff’s new approach and conditioning and relatively young age, I don’t consider this year to be an aberration, no more than Melky, who also has a new approach and better conditioning, or Gordon, who also has a new approach. Give Seitzer his props and let’s start demanding that Jeff Suppan be called up. He’s won a bunch of games and has an ERA under 4.00. And C Rob is hitting better than Billy!

“and now you are basically going to have to pay Gordon 9, 10, 11M per right? maybe 12+ since our pay scale seems to be be based on your best season ever, 4 WAR 2011.”

$13.5 million is about 3 WAR over two years, well below Frenchy’s current best season, and Gordon is under control for a couple more years, so won’t get $25 million per year on a long term contract. I expect something more like an upscale version of Billy’s extension, $50-$60 million over five years, maybe $75 mil, back loaded with some late options that can get the Royals out in 3 or 4. That gets Gordon to age 32 when he can get a Jose Guillen contract from someone else, then start decaying.

Written by mike d about 4 years ago.

am i the only one who just relized that all we got for grinke was a light hitting ss and a of in aaa that they dont like anymore!!!! honestly dayton moore has had plenty of time to do something and hasnt!!! dont get me wrong mr.glass is 90% of the problem but daytons trades have been bad!!! time for a change!!!

Written by Ted about 4 years ago.

Mike, you forgot Odorizzi, who might already be our best pitching prospect, and Jeffress, who admittedly looks lost in the sauce. Also, that light hitting SS is good enough with the glove that he can hit his current slash line and still be valuable. And I don’t know where the rumors of KC not liking Cain are coming from, I have not read that anywhere but here, and the guy played fairly well for Milwaukee last season, looked great in Spring Training, and has put up good numbers in Omaha.

Anyway, does someone here know how Fangraphs calculates the baserunning values? I was just looking at the Royals numbers and noticed that Gordon is given a 4.4 for baserunning despite his 62% success rate for stolen bases. I don’t get to watch many games, but I would think he must just fly around the bases and score from first on bloop singles all the time to justify that kind of a positive rating. Also, it seems like his 3.2 UZR in LF is low. Again, though, I don’t get to watch a lot of game.

Written by Kyle about 4 years ago.

Gordon still has 2 more years of arb, right? He could go 4/6/8/10mil over the next 4 years with a 5th year team option very similar to butler. Gordon may end up being better than butler but butler has shown consistency over the last few years.

Odorozzi will probably be up mid season next year. Duffy, Monty, or Odorozzi will become the front of the rotation.

I think they just guess. They have Frenchy rated the worst regular, just behind Billy, and well behind Kila, Treanor, and Perez, even though Frenchy has 19 steals and fairly often gets the hustle double. Gordon is good, may even be the best overall base runner on the team, but I don’t see much difference between him and Frenchy and do see a bunch of difference between Billy and Frenchy.

Defense is about as odd, Hosmer seen as the worst fielding regular at -8.4, compared to Moose at +4.5, second best on the team behind Esky’s +9.2 Melky, since his ankle injury, has fallen to -5, which is reasonable.

Written by ClarkFosler about 4 years ago.

Committing an out on the bases is a bigger penalty than taking an extra base is a bonus. They also consider the more mundane parts of base running (scoring from 2nd on a single, etc). My guess is Frenchy’s poor rating is largely the result of outs made on bases and the fact that he probably has a fairly average rating at best on the standard advancement around the bases on ‘routine’ hits. Gordon’s probably got a better rating in those categories.
It’s important to remember that any Baserunning metric is calculating everything you do on the bases, not just steals.

Written by jim fetterolf about 4 years ago.

“Committing an out on the bases is a bigger penalty than taking an extra base is a bonus.”

Then that may not be right. Better would seem to be looking at net bases advanced, just as we look at net steals. I think I’ld rather have Frenchy thrown out once a month going first to third than have Billy 100% assured of going first to second on a single, then going second to third on the next single, then scoring on the third succeeding single.

“Gordon’s probably got a better rating in those categories.”

Possible, haven’t seen anything to indicate it. To the eyeball they look quite a bit alike.

Martin Manley at the Star is looking at speed and considers Gordon to be the 43rd best Royal all time, Frenchy not in the top 50:

Sigh… Fangraphs doesn’t just “guess.” I would suspect if one really wanted to know the formula, it’s probably somewhere on the site.

Francoeur has made 8 outs on the bases (not counting his 7 caught stealings) the most on the team. Gordon has made only 2 outs on the bases. Clark is right… The “hustle” double doesn’t count as much as making an out.

Once Frenchy signed, everybody wondered about Gordon and Melky. I found Dayton’s comment on Melky odd – not talking contract with him. Makes me wonder if Cain will get plenty of time during his September callup. If Cain is roughly equal to Melky thru the end of the season, maybe Melky will be the odd man out…who knows???

Written by Ted about 4 years ago.

Okay, that makes sense. So making an out is weighted more, Gordon has seven caught stealings to match Francoeur’s, Francoeur has a total of 15 outs, Gordon has only 9. But how do they then weight advancements? My question wasn’t why is Gordon rated higher than Francoeur, but rather how can he be rated so highly with a 62% success rate for stolen bases? He must be scoring from second on singles a lot, or scoring from first on doubles, or advancing on passed balls, or something, because even if outs are weighted more than advancements, with his paltry 62% steals rate he isn’t advancing much in stolen bases to outweigh those outs that are weighted so heavily.

Does that make any sense?

So is scoring weighted more than just advancing, or is taking an extra base always given the same weight? Advancing on a passed ball is nice, but scoring when other players might have been held at third is presumably better. Or is it not?

Basically I am confused how Gordon can be tied for sixth in the baserunning metric without being a more efficient base stealer. Of those with higher ratings, only two — Curtis Granderson and Alexei Ramirez — have worse than an 80% success rate, and they are both at 70%. Alex Rios is tied with Gordon in the baserunning metric and has a 67% success rate. Of those near him, Juan Pierre shares Gordon’s 62% success in stolen base attempts, and is given a 3.7 for baserunning, presumably because he has made at least six more outs on the base paths (13 times caught stealing), but he also has seven more stolen bases.

You know what, screw it. Is there a place that records how often players advance on the base paths?

Written by jim fetterolf about 4 years ago.

“Clark is right… The “hustle” double doesn’t count as much as making an out.”

*sigh* I disagree with that.

“Francoeur has made 8 outs on the bases (not counting his 7 caught stealings) the most on the team.”

And how many extra bases has his speed and aggression created? He is +12 on net steals, 12 extra bases created. “8 outs” is meaningless without the rest of the information, “X number of extra bases taken”. I doubt fangraphs is able to quantify that yet, so their Bsr is limited in value. If you think Billy a better base runner than Frenchy, it is a free country, but I think that shows that sabre is still very weak on both Bsr and Fld. You did notice how Billy ranks among all-time Royals? That comes much closer to the eyeballs.

Ted – Baseball reference has a category called extra bases taken. It records the number of times a player advances two or more bases on a single or three bases on a double.

Jim – Wasn’t stating my opinion on your “hustle” double. I was talking about it in reference to the base running metric. The outs weigh more heavily than a “hustle” double when they calculate their number. Fact.

I also wasn’t aware I made the claim that Billy was a better base runner than Francoeur.

Written by Clark Fosler about 4 years ago.

Bill James’ annual handbook has had a base running section for many Yeats now, where they do quantify extra bases taken, outs made, pct of times scored from second on a single, from first on doubles, etc. My guess is that Fangraphs DOES have access to such data.

Jim, I believe the theory is that getting thrown out on the bases is more damaging to an inning, on average, than getting an extra base is valuable. Basically, while your chances of scoring from first are less than scoring from second, they are better than scoring from the bench after being thrown out. Hence, the greater penalty.

Ted, when you think about it, stolen bases occur on a fairly small pct of times on base. I imagine it is quite possible that Gordon’s ability to score from first or second, take the extra base without making an out might well overwhelm his mundane SB pct simply because of the greater number of occurrences ( regardless of what Jim’s eye test is telling us)

Written by Kyle about 4 years ago.

Anytime a baserunning stat shows Billy Butler better than ANYONE there is an issue with that stat. Billy is the SLOWEST baseball player I have ever seen. He may run just as hard as everyone else, but he just can’t move as fast. HAHA. Billy makes more outs at first on GIDP, than anyone, does that hurt his baserunning stat? He hasn’t been as bad this year, but it still happens with his style of play.

Written by Ted about 4 years ago.

Craig: thanks for the info.

Written by Clark Fosler about 4 years ago.

Kyle, Butler’s GIDP do not apply to his base running stats, they effect his wOBA, which plays into his overall offensive WAR. My guess is that Billy, while never one to take an extra base, also has not made many outs on the bases.

Written by Clark Fosler about 4 years ago.

I think many of us are looking for a base running metric to do more than it was designed to do. Turning a single into a double also gives a player a boost in his offensive stats. In fact, stolen bases and caught stealings from what I can tell are not included at all in Fangraphs BSR as they are already accounted for in other stat measures that are used for WAR calcs.
Use it for what it is, not for an all encompassing definition of steals, grit, advancement and speed.

Written by Ted about 4 years ago.

Clark: My question is, what is the baserunning metric. What is the formula that Fangraphs uses? I cannot find a definition or formula on their website, and without knowing how the weight specific events, I just don’t feel comfortable with it.

Ignoring that Gordon is among the best in baseball according to Fangraphs, now, like others, I am confused as to why Gordon’s rating (4.4) is so much better than Francoeur’s (-3.3). I looked at the stats at BR, and in many categories Frenchy is more efficient on the base paths than Gordon: SB% (73% vs 65%); pickoffs (3 vs 4); extra base taken percent — how often a player advances more than one base on a single or more than two on a double (44% vs 39%). Gordon does have Francoeur in two categories though: outs on the base paths (2 vs 8); and bases taken — bases advanced on fly balls, passed balls, balks, wild pitches and defensive indifference (27 vs 14, though baseball reference does not tell us how many opportunities each player has had).

Those outs on bases must be weighted very heavily. I just don’t understand the metric because other than the six extra outs on bases, Francoeur appears to be about as efficient a base runner as Gordon, yet his rating is 7.7 points fewer.