BetBright STATZONE: Saturday ITV Racing (16th Feb 2019)

Welcome to the BetBright STATZONE, where we give you the stats and you make the decisions!

So, with the equine flu situation now behind us it’s full steam as the racing is back……………and back with a bang!

Yes, we might have lost some decent race last weekend but the BHA have acted quickly to get some of the main contests – like the Denman Chase and Betfair Hurdle – added to Saturday’s Ascot card and the ITV cameras will now be taking in a stonking 10 races across the afternoon!

So, another huge day on the horse racing front this weekend as the ITV cameras will now be heading to Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton this Saturday, plus they are also taking in the Red Mills Chase from Gowran Park over in Ireland.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on STATZONE with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get cracking!

ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (ATR/ITV)

16/16 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
14/16 – Had run within the last 7 weeks
13/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
13/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Won last time out
10/16 – Irish bred
9/16 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
9/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (2 winners)
8/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Winners that went onto finish 5th or better in the RSA Chase
7/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill

Note: The 2005 & 2006 – Run at Lingfield Park

STATZONE VERDICT: The 150-rated TOP VILLE BEN has certainly impressed in winning his last two races at Hexham and Wetherby so looks worth supporting until the bubble bursts. He won those two races by a combined total of 59 lengths and despite being 8lbs higher here and up significantly in grade he’s clearly a much-improved horse this season. Of the rest, Paul Nicholls has won this race in 2013 and 2018 so his Coup De Pinceau can’t be discounted if running, while recent winners Mister Malarky and Now McGinty are others to respect.

Only 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Won 1 or 2 chase races previously
7/8 – Finished 5th or better last time out
7/8 – Aged 8 or older
7/8 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
6/8 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
5/8 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
5/8 – Aged in double-figures
4/8 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/8 – Irish bred
3/8 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
3/8 – Winning distance head or shorter
2/8 – Won last time out
2/8 – Winning Favourites
5 of the last 6 winners carried 11-0 or more
REGAL ENCORE won the race in 2018

STATZONE VERDICT: With 5 of the last 6 winners carrying 11-0 or more then this could be a significant trend that a lot will have to overcome. Last year’s winner – REGAL ENCORE (e/w) – could also line-up and with 11st 3lbs to carry ticks that already mentioned weight stat. Yes, at 11 year-old he’s not getting any younger but has only had two races since taking this 12 months ago, plus is also only 2lbs higher. We’ve also had horses aged in double-figures winning 5 of the last 8 runnings of this so his advancing years might actually be a plus. Of the rest, course and distance winner Black Corton is feared but is now five races without a win so needs to bounce back. Former Gold Cup winner Coneygree is also in the race but at 12 years-old is clearly the force of old. With a light weight the 9 year-old Calipto might do best of the rest, hailing from the Venetia Williams yard that won this in 2017.

2.45 – Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

13/15 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
13/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
12/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/15 – Rated 150+
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Aged 8 or younger
11/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
9/15 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
9/15 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
6/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
5/15 – French bred
4/15 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
3/15 – Returned a double-figure price
3/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/15 – Won by the Pipe stable
6 of the last 12 winners were aged 7 years-old
The average SP in the last 12 runnings is 10/3

STATZONE VERDICT: Moved from the lost Newbury card of last weekend but with the change of venue then no Native River, which is a shame – he’ll head straight to Cheltenham now. So, not a great renewal and really if the current ratings are anything to go by then the King George VI Chase winner, CLAN DES OBEAUX, should be taking this with a fair amount of ease. He’s rated 173, which is 14lbs higher than the likes of Terrefort, while at just 7 years-old here could be even more to come from this Paul Nicholls-trained chaser – he’ll be looking to give the yard their ninth success in the race. Ballyhill and Thomas Patrick make up the four runners, but being rated 143 and 145 have a lot of ground to make-up on the selection if official ratings are to be trusted.

3.20 –Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

16/16 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight
15/16 – Aged 7 or younger
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/16 – Rated 130 or higher
13/16 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
13/16 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
13/16 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
13/16 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
13/16 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/16 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
11/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
8/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/16 – Irish bred
8/16 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
7/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Aged 5 years-old (including 7 of last 10)
6/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/16 – Trained by Gary Moore
2/16 – Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/16 – Owned by JP McManus
1/16 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
21 of the last 22 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 14/1

STATZONE VERDICT: The Nigel Twiston-Davies team have won this in 2014 and 2017 so their Al Dancer, who has been very impressive this season, is sure to be popular. This 6 year-old has won all three of his starts this term and was hugely impressive when winning at Cheltenham back in December. He’s up 12lbs for that though and does have two significant trends to overcome. All of the last 16 winners carried 11st 7lbs or less, while 13 of the last 16 had run in the last 8 weeks – he falls down on both. Getaway Trump is another that’s going to be popular, being he’s from the Paul Nicholls yard and has also done well this season. However, with 11st 9lbs it won’t be easy and he’s also up 4lbs from his last run. He did, however, run the promising Champ to 2 ½ lengths that day and with the winner looking very useful he’s still not one to dismiss lightly. The consistent Lisp should go well for the Alan King yard, but it won’t be easy with 11st 12lbs to carry and having to give weight away all-round. So, the answer here could be the Nick Gifford runner – DIDTHEYLEAVEYOUOUTTO (e/w). This 6 year-old ticks a lot of the main stats and gets in with 11st 6lbs. Yes, he flopped on Boxing Day at Kempton, but the track might not have suited that day. The move to Ascot for this race also looks in his favour as he’s 2-from-2 here at the Berkshire track, while Barry Geraghty is an obvious bonus in the saddle too. Finally, he’s owned by JP McManus, who loves to target this race – he’s won it in 2010 and 2013. Of the rest, the Gary Moore pair of DISTINGO (e/w) and AR MEST (e/w) are others to note. The yard has won this prize three times since 2007 and both get in with light weights, especially the last-named who has just 10st 7lbs to carry and also a 10lb claiming jockey riding!

3.55 – Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y ITV4

16/16 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
15/16 – Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
14/16 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
14/16 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
13/16 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
12/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
12/16 – Favourites placed
12/16 – Officially rated 157 or higher
11/16 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
11/16 – Favourites that won
7/16 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
7/16 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/16 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
5/16 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (1 winner, Cue Card) later that year
5/16 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
5/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
10 of the last 12 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Waiting Patiently won the race in 2018

Note: The 2005 & 2006 – Run at Lingfield Park

STATZONE VERDICT: This looks the race of the afternoon at Ascot for me. Yes, only six runners but a top contest that sees some big names on show. We can expect the improving Aso to make a bold bid from the front but I suspect he’ll become a sitting duck and set the race up for something else. Having said that, the Paul Nicholls runner – Cyrname – also likes to race up with the pace and he was an impressive scorer here last time out over this trip. He’s certainly going the right way and if either of these two are allowed to get easy leads then would be dangerous. Fox Norton rarely runs a bad race and he’ll be pleased his old rival Altior isn’t in the race. He’s finished in the top two in 10 of his last 11 races so rarely lets his supporters down and it should be more of the same here – he’ll go well. Politologue was a fair fourth in the King George last time out over 3m but the drop back to 2m5f looks in his favour after not quite seeing out that trip over Christmas. He’s also a course and distance winner so we know the track suits. He’s very closely-matched with Fox Norton, but I feel both will be playing second fiddle to the winner of this race last year – WAITING PATIENTLY. This 8 year-old was still very much in the hunt in the King George on Boxing Day until hampered and eventually unseating jockey Brian Hughes. You can never tell as it came at the 9th fence and they still had a way to go but my feeling is that he’d have got a lot nearer to the winner (if not won the race) than Politologue did in fourth. He landed this race by 2 ¾ lengths last year, beating the classy Cue Card and I’ll take him to follow-up and become the first back-to-back winner of this prize since Riverside Theatre (2011/12). The consistent Charbel makes up the six and is certainly no back-number either.

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4)

2.25 – William Hill Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV4

15/16 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/16 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
11/16 – Rated 145 or higher
11/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
10/16 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
10/16 – Aged 8 or younger
9/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
8/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle (no winners)
7/16 – Had run at Haydock before
6/16 – French-bred
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
1/16 – Winning favourites
1/16 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival

Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 – Run at Kempton Park

STATZONE VERDICT: The Jamie Snowden-trained SCORPION SID won easily by 18 lengths over this course and distance back in December and with the expected improvement gets the nod here. Yes, he’s in a better race but we know the track suits and that was also only his second run over fences. Of the rest, the danger can come from the Sue Smith runner – The Paddy Pie. The yard have won this race twice since 2011 and this very consistent 6 year-old, who won well last time out at Sedgefield, gets in here with only 10st 7lbs to carry.

16/16 – UK-based trained winners
16/16 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
14/16 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
13/16 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
13/16 – Aged 10 or younger
12/16 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
12/16 – Aged 9 or younger
12/16 – Rated 135 or higher
11/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Finished in the top two last time out
10/16 – Carried 11-0 or less
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Unplaced favourites
7/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
6/16 – Irish-bred winners
4/16 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
4/16 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/16 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/16 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Venetia Williams
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1

STATZONE VERDICT: A lot of old staying faces in the line-up here, including last year’s winner, Yala Enki. This Venetia Williams-trained 9 year-old was an easy 54 length winner 12 months ago, but it’s worth pointing out that came on heavy ground, that’s he’s unlikely to get here. He’s also 10lbs higher in the ratings so even though jockey Hugh Nugent takes off 7lbs he’s still 3lbs higher that last year too. Having said that, he seems to like it at Haydock, with form figures that read 5-3-1-4-1, so he’s still likely to be right in the mix. 12 of the last 16 winners were aged 9 or younger, so that’s a negative for Bishops Road, Carole’s Destrier, Vieux Lion Rouge, Robinsfirth and Wakanda. The consistent Impulsive Star was a nice winner of the Classic Chase at Warwick last time out but is up 6lbs for that so more is needed. The Pipe (Vieux Lion Rouge, 2017 winner) and Twiston-Davies (Ballyoptic and Ballyarthur) yards are both well-represented with two runners each, but the two I like there are RED INFANTRY and THE TWO AMIGOS. The first-named was a fair fifth in the Peter March here last time – only beaten 6 lengths. He’s off the same mark but the step up in trip looks to be in his favour. He’s a CD winner at the track and the first-time blinkers are also an interesting addition. The Two Amigos is an improving young staying chaser that won the Sussex National last time at Plumpton and should have more to come. He’s not the biggest but does seem to have a lot of stamina with his recent wins coming over 3m6f and 3m4f. He’s up 8lbs for the last of those wins, but if you include his point-to-point successes then he heads here having won 8 of this last 10 races!

WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4)

1.45 Betway Heedyourhunch Handicap Chase 2m ITV4

Only 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
3/4 – Carried 10-5 or less in weight
3/4 – Aged 8 or younger
2/4 – Winning favourites
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 27% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Gary Moore is just 1 from 14 with his chasers at the track

STATZONE VERDICT: Admiral’s Secret has won three of his last five starts but after refusing to race last time out at Haydock then a certainly amount of risk is attached to his chance. On a plus, he’s a proven CD winner at the track and gets in here with a very low weight (10st 5lbs) – maybe a play in-running? So, the safer bet looks to be the Harry Whittington-trained BIGMARTRE. This 8 year-old made a good impression back in 2017 and even though he’s not progressed as many thought he’s still been going okay. He was 7th in the JLT Novices’ Chase at the Festival but there were signs last time out at Ludlow (4th of 9) that he’s running back into form. He’s down a pound for that run, while the slightly better ground this time will help. He’s also had a small break (2 months) and certainly looks a horse that has more to offer than recent runs suggest. Of the rest, the 12 year-old Gino Trail will be a lot better for his recent return run, but was still a fine second that day and despite his advancing years is showing no signs of letting-up just yet. He can make a bold bid from the front and can go well.

3.00 – Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV4

15/15 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
14/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/15 – Priced 10/3 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
13/15 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
12/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
11/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/15 – Rated 155 or higher
9/15 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
8/15 – Winning favourites
8/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Raced at Sandown last time out
4/15 – Trained by Alan King
1/15 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)

STATZONE VERDICT: This is a race the Alan King team like to do well in – they’ve won it three times since 2011, including for the last two years. So, their runner this year – SCEAU ROYAL gets the nod. This 7 year-old returns to hurdles after last being seen running last of four in the Tingle Creek over fences so will find this company a lot more to his liking. Prior to that run he’d won his previous four races. Add in that he’s a proven CD winner at the track and was also a fine third in this race in 2017 then he seems to have a lot going for him. Of the rest, course winners Unison and Jolly’s Cracked It command respect as we know the track suits, while the Nicholls runner Grand Sancy ran well to be second in the Tolworth Hurdle last time and is also proven here at the track. He did look to have a hard race that day though, so it remains to be seen if that’s left it’s mark. The ratings suggest Vision Des Flos might be the danger though – he was a gallant runner-up to Buveur D’Air last time, albeit the winner won with a lot up it’s sleeve, but should find this company a lot more to his liking.

GOWRAN PARK TRENDS (ITV4)

2.30 – Red Mills Chase (Grade 2) 2m4f ITV4

10/10 – Had won over at least 2m4f (Chase) before
10/10 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
9/10 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Aged 8 or younger
7/10 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
6/10 – Rated 150 or lower
6/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Raced at Thurles last time out
3/10 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/10 – Ridden by Paul Townend

STATZONE VERDICT: No Presenting Percy, who was entered in the race earlier in the week and only 4 runners now. Of the quartet Killultagh Vic and MONALEE look the ones to focus on. Edwulf is capable on his day and the winner of the Unibet Irish Gold Cup last season, but hasn’t won since and not an easy horse to catch right. Anibale Fly simply doesn’t win enough for me and another tilt and the Grand National, a race he finished fourth in last season, looks his main target. Mullins does well with his chasers at the track and has won this race three times since 2010 so his Killultagh Vic will be popular with Ruby Walsh riding too. A recent third here to Presenting Percy was a solid run – only beaten 1 ½ lengths – and with that rival now a non-runner then he sets a good standard if running to that level again. However, at two years his younger Monalee might have more to come. Last season’s RSA Chase runner-up returned with a solid second in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas and should be starting to hit peak form now. He’s engaged in both the Ryanair and the Gold Cup at the Festival so he can take another step forward to heading for one of those engagements by landing this.