U.S. floor coverings sales (shipments minus exports plus imports) continue to increase in dollars and square feet, according to Catalina Research’s first quarter report. Manufacturer dollar sales are estimated to have increased by 4 percent in the first quarter of 2013, and volume sales could have increased by 2 percent.

Growth is accelerating with the increase in the first quarter of 2013 estimated to be more than three times the level in Q1 2012.

The builder market led industry gains with about a 26 percent increase in housing starts in the first quarter of 2013. This continues the sharp gains in the new home market that surged in the second half of 2012.

An increase in the average size of new single family homes and multi-family housing units in Q4 2012 is indicating stronger growth potential in the builder market this year. Builder purchases may also be moving upmarket as the value of the average new housing units sold rises. Average prices rose by about 8 percent in the first quarter of 2013.

Rising existing home prices are also giving a boost to the residential replacement market. Household floor covering spending is growing about 4 percent annually. Replacement sales are being aided by the 8 percent to 9 percent increase in existing home sales over the past year. Non-mover replacement purchases, however, have remained sluggish.

In the first quarter of 2013, hard surface flooring is estimated to have accounted for 48.7 percent of total dollar sales and 44 percent of total square foot sales. This is up from 46.7 percent and 42.4 percent, respectively, in the first quarter of 2012. Manufacturer hard surface flooring sales are estimated to have increased by 8.3 percent in dollars and 5.8 percent in square feet over this period.
Meanwhile, reported Catalina, carpet and area rug sales were flat in dollars and could have declined by about 1 percent in square feet. The weakness in soft surface sales is centered in wall-to-wall carpet lines. Conversely, area rug sales continue to grow. Hard surface flooring lines are expected to make additional inroads over the entire year as a recovering housing market pushes overall industry growth to levels not seen since the mid-2000s.