Naveen Patnaik gained handsomely from breaking with the BJP. It is time Nitish Kumar showed the same daring.

The Nitish Kumar-Bharatiya Janata Party shadow-boxing appears to have faded into the backdrop — at least for now. For close to a fortnight, the Bihar Chief Minister and his political partner sparred and warred, giving the impression that the relationship was going over the precipice. But just as the audience braced itself for the final, heart-stopping moment, when Mr. Kumar was expected to do a Naveen Patnaik on his ally of 14 years, he stopped, weighed the situation and pulled back from the brink.

To anyone familiar with the Nitish-BJP chapter of Bihar's political history, the tepid ending is hardly likely to have come as a surprise. This is not the first time Mr. Kumar has fulminated against the BJP, nor will it be the last time he does so. The Janata Dal (U) has long been a candidate for exiting the National Democratic Alliance, and seemed close to following Mr. Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal ahead of the 2009 general elections. But that did not happen. Mr. Kumar stayed on to fight another battle, and presumably will fight many more battles — unless it dawns on him that sometimes a single dramatic decision can achieve what a lifetime of laboured steps cannot.

Of course, the Bihar and Orissa circumstances are far from being identical. Caste and class composition variations aside, the Bihar Chief Minister is made very differently from his Orissa counterpart. The western-educated, elitist Patnaik showed stunning daring in breaking up with the BJP, his partner in the State and at the Centre since 1998. Forget that the bravado was at odds with his affable, mild-mannered nature. To most people incredulously watching Mr. Patnaik in superhero-style action, he seemed intent on political suicide. No one who studied the electoral map of Orissa could find any reason for him to win as outrightly as he eventually did.

What obviously gave him confidence was his own incredible track record. Mr. Patnaik's is a dazzling, if somewhat under-recognised, story. The genial son of Kalinga warrior Biju Patnaik entered politics to instant success and stardom, which was surprising considering his English-speaking, affluent background. But remarkably, he never once tasted failure in the years thereafter. Between 1998 and 2009, he won two State elections in a row, besides picking up the majority of seats in three consecutive elections to the Lok Sabha.

Mr. Patnaik did achieve all of this in partnership with the BJP. However, unlike in Bihar, where the BJP was a force on its own, the party in Orissa owed its all to Mr. Patnaik. Consider the BJP's electoral record prior to the alliance: No seats at all in the 1984, 1989, 1991 and 1996 Lok Sabha elections, and negligible presence in the Assembly during the same period. Once the alliance was in place, the BJP's fortunes soared skyward: Of the 9 Lok Sabha seats allotted to it under the 9-12 seat-sharing formula, it won 7 in 1998, all 9 in 1999 and again 7 in 2004. Of the 63 Assembly seats allotted to it under the 63-84 formula, the BJP won 38 in 2000 and 32 in 2004. The BJP's vote share increased in the Lok Sabha from 9.5 per cent in 1991 to 19.30 per cent in 2004. In the Assembly, it went up from 3.56 per cent in 1990 to 17.11 per cent in 2004.

Mr. Patnaik deduced, and correctly too, that without the BJD propping it, the BJP would slide back to its pre-alliance status. In May 2009, as Mr. Patnaik wrapped up his twin victories in the Lok Sabha and the Assembly elections, his former partner crashed to zero seats in the Lok Sabha and just seven in the Assembly.

In retrospect, the Chief Minister clearly knew what he was doing. Yet at that time there was little in the statistics to suggest a gargantuan BJD victory. In a triangular contest, it is a given that the advantage rests with the party with the largest share of votes. In Orissa, this distinction was held by the outwardly down and out Congress. When Mr. Patnaik gave the BJP the heave-ho, this is what he was faced with. In the Lok Sabha: BJP-19.30 per cent; BJD-30.02 per cent and the Congress-40.43 per cent. In the Assembly: BJP-17.11 per cent; BJD-27.36 per cent and the Congress-34.82 per cent. A certain addition to the BJD's vote share consequent to the BJP's departure made sense. But no one could have reckoned that the BJD would increase its vote share by 7 percentage points in the Lok Sabha (37. 2 per cent) and by over 11 percentage points in the Assembly (38.86 per cent).

There was something in the verdict for other followers to take note. Mr. Patnaik's personal popularity, his clean image and the absence of a credible rival in the Congress were all points in his favour. But these still did not satisfactorily explain the size of his victory. The gap between victory and landslide was explained by only one thing. His decisive action post-Kandhamal anti-Christian killings. When he broke up with the BJP, he became a hero for more than just the Christian community.

It is possible to question the Chief Minister's motives. After all, he cohabited with the BJP for over a decade, and showed no particular remorse at the time of the Gujarat 2002 anti-Muslim pogrom. But whatever Mr. Patnaik's reasons for dumping the BJP, the important thing is that he carried conviction with his people. Unlike Mr. Kumar, whose mood swings vis-à-vis the BJP have been showcased for all to see, Mr. Patnaik exhibited no theatrics while in a relationship with the BJP. But once he decided he had had enough, he despatched the BJP in a swift, surgical operation that at once unsettled his opponents and raised his profile among his voters. In the public perception, he was a leader willing to stake his career for a principle.

History offers proof that fortune favours the brave. M.G. Ramachandran, Indira Gandhi, V.P. Singh, and even Lalu Prasad, all reached iconic heights because they dared to walk their own individual paths. Will Mr. Kumar eventually pick up the courage to shed the Hindutva baggage and be his own man? His past tells us that he will not but there is enough in his present to suggest that he can and he must.

Mr. Kumar appears not able to forget that he has reached where he has after a long, bitter struggle marked by setbacks and failures. Rewind to 1990. Between Mr. Prasad and Mr. Kumar, the latter was the smart one. Armed with an engineering degree and already an MP, Mr. Kumar was friend and adviser to Mr. Prasad during the 1990 Bihar Assembly election which launched Mr. Prasad's extraordinary career. But, as it often happens in politics, the disciple completely outperformed the guru. Mr. Prasad's impish charm and riveting rustic act brought him a fan following so huge that there was no longer any need for Mr. Kumar. Frustrated, Mr. Kumar took his Samata Party (later JD-U) to the BJP's door, entirely unmindful of the Janata Dal's secular-liberal moorings.

Formed in 1996, the Samata-BJP alliance achieved a fair degree of success in the 1996 and 1998 Lok Sabha elections, securing 24 and 30 seats out of a total of 52 from Bihar. In 1999, the alliance hit the jackpot with 41 seats.

But in the Assembly, the alliance was not so fortunate, resulting in a long and tiring wait for Mr. Kumar, who wanted nothing more than the chief ministerial chair. This happened in 2000 but humiliatingly for Mr. Kumar, he was in office for all of nine days, not being able to prove his majority. Around this time, Mr. Kumar's opponents began to joke about his jinxed fate. An aide of Mr. Prasad would fondly tell journalists that he had read Mr. Kumar's horoscope and he saw no sign of fame or fortune there. Indeed, the high office eluded Mr. Kumar even after the landmark February 2005 election, which saw the Lalu-Rabri Devi twosome exit the scene after holding sway for 15 long years.

Mr. Kumar's dream finally came true in October 2005. He became Chief Minister and with that came name, fame and fortune — all in ample measure and for the very deserved reason that under his helmsmanship Bihar emerged from the dark to show signs of hope. Honour upon honour followed — television “man of the year” awards and high approval ratings. With Mr. Kumar manoeuvring to forge a new coalition of the OBCs, the Most Backward Classes and sections of Dalits and Muslims, the JD(U)-BJP alliance swept the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. A post-poll survey by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies placed Mr. Kumar right on top with the highest approval rating for any Chief Minister.

There can be no better time than this for Mr. Kumar to act. He can either do a Naveen Patnaik and trigger a vote consolidation in his favour — even the BJP's forward caste voters will likely vote for him in the event of a BJP-JD(U) rupture — or he can sit and make his little caste calculations and forever continue his attack-and-retreat charade.

Correction

The twelfth paragraph in the above article says that the Samata-BJP alliance achieved success in the 1996 and 1998 Lok Sabha elections, securing 24 and 30 seats out of a total of 52 from Bihar. It should have been 54 seats from Bihar.

I don't think so. As far as BJP is concerned, it is having a huge vote-bank in Bihar.

from:
the shreyas raj

Posted on: Sep 6, 2010 at 15:04 IST

Vidya's wishes has been passed off, as a research article here. The Kandhamal disturbance was never an issue in Orissa; Naveen's image as a clean and able administrator won him the election, even though he developed cold-feet and went the minority appeasement way after the riots. How come no one talks about the murder of the Swami by Christian goons and the conversion of tribals either by force or allurement ?

Is it because it is inconvenient for The Hindu's pro-Left, pro- minority leanings ? If Kandhamal was the deciding factor, then how did Modi win from Gujarat, twice, after the 2002 riots ?

Is The Hindu saying that Oriya people are secular and Gujaratis are communal ?

Please do research with an open-mind and publish the truth, however inconvenient it may be.

from:
Arun

Posted on: Jul 5, 2010 at 23:09 IST

This kind of blatantly partisan political advocacy passing of as journalism is shocking though this particular analyst is fairly well known as an Congress apologist and for her vitriolic venomous writing against BJP.

After the demise of Biju Patnaik,a reluctant Naveen Patnaik catapulted himself to politics predominantly due to the persuasion of BJP stalwarts Advani/Vajpayee.Even half-informed political pundit would know that BJD rode piggyback on Vajpayee/BJP popularity to win in 1998/2004.BJP was always a strong force to reckon with in Western and parts of Urban Orisa.Infact BJP made strategic blunder by ceding space to BJD type formation given that it was poised to usurp the complete opposition space in 1998/1999.It had swept three by-eleections that just preceded the formation of BJD including a prestigious one in Bhubaneshswar.

from:
Prasanna

Posted on: Jul 5, 2010 at 17:08 IST

Agree with sheela. it's author's wishlist and far from reality. Given Hindu's leanings, it's no wonder such stuff makes it to front page.

from:
sivagiri

Posted on: Jul 5, 2010 at 04:50 IST

I would like to lodge a complaint that the Hindu routinely does not publish my comments. Hindu itself uses the press freedom provided by the government of India, does not want to provide the same freedom to the readers, just because they provide meaningful, but sometimes contrarian arguments to its opinion makers. If the authors write with conviction, then they should be able to debate folks who have alternate opinion. This clearly proves that, the Hindu itself does not have confidence on its authors in defending their opinons/positions.

There have been more than 7-8 comments I have sent on various issues ,in the past few months, and none have been published in the website. I am Saddened, by this denial of free speech done by Hindu to its readers, in the name of moderation.

from:
Raj

Posted on: Jul 5, 2010 at 00:26 IST

The author of this article seems to be at great pains to make Nitish Kumar take a suicidal decision. If Nitish Kumar could agree upon some sort of seat adjustment with the Congress, he could take the risk. As of now, RJD plus LJP, is a force to reckon with. And BJP surely is much stronger in Bihar compared to Orissa. So, the old adage, slow and steady wins the race, could be the wise decision for the time being. But Nitish could weaken himself if he does not assert himself when the BJP is bent on bringing Narendra Modi and Varun Gandhi to Bihar. This will spoil the secular image of Nitish Kumar and hence the Minority and anti-fundmentalist votes.

from:
T. Nishaant

Posted on: Jul 4, 2010 at 22:36 IST

Good article.

from:
K.V. Seetharamaiah

Posted on: Jul 4, 2010 at 21:18 IST

The writer seems to be Nitish and Patanaik supporter and in the process lost sight of factsand BJP is insignificant factor in politics.

Bihar is different from Orissa.More over real reasons for failure of BJP retaining power are:

BJP doesnot have Media support which is one of the causes of their failure to win elections.

Secondly, BJP supporters by and large giving lip service without going to Voting Booth.

If BJP can work on these 2 issues BJP doesnot need Nitin or Patnaik to remain in power.

from:
D.A.Eswar

Posted on: Jul 4, 2010 at 19:36 IST

Vidya, research is one thing and real politics is another. When in 2004 people were saying that BJP is gonna come back, it didnt happen. In 2009 when stats represented that Congress gonna have impact of anti incumbancy then congress gullp other suppoting parties. Recently congress fought civic polls in WB alone and all researchers told that it will have impact to vote count of TMC and results gave those reserchers zero marks. Sites like CNN-IBN presents manuclated data in 2009 LS elctions and all results were againt their verdict still they were able to claim that they predicted best in Exit poll. Its not pure mathematics and politicians know the ground reality. They know that BJP is now even stronger that last LS election. Its unfortunate that CM of Orissa escaped his responsibility to protect the people when riots happened. Hindu maintain that Patniak is of no fault but Modi in gujrat is all culprit of 2002 riots. Ask yurself Why rajiv gandhi or congress should not blamed on this paper having communalized on the basis of riligion first. Then moved to communalized the society on the basis of caste, language, ethnic difference but cant be called as communal but BJP asking same constitution rights for everyone is communal. I recently visited a marriage of muslim community and suprised to see their backwardness, ask yourself why congress didnt able to do anything for them. Dont you think that you have lived you calling india a poor country and still supporting congress for looting poorest of poor indians. If hindu and you maintained that development should not be part of India and only congress rule this country for benefits of few corporate class to recharge their leaders back accounts in swiss backs then one day you regret for being anti nation. We now want development and Nitish has done great job with BJP (who is also doing great job in its ruling states too). and this coalation is best for people of Bihar otherwise Lalu and cogress take them back to what they were 10 years ago.

from:
Rahul Bansal

Posted on: Jul 4, 2010 at 18:12 IST

both nitish kumar and bjp fully aware about the consequenses if they broke their alliance. Now Mr.Kumar is suffering critisism for the ill-distribution of funds to the kosi victims. Political scene has changed as it was in last week. Now BJP passed the ball to Kumar's as the former called Mody to campaign in Bihar. So the trailer is over, wait for the movie

from:
hari kumar

Posted on: Jul 4, 2010 at 17:39 IST

Why should Nitish break-up with the BJP? Is speaking up for the Hindus a crime? BJP is the only nationalist,patriotic party in this country. Hinduism and hindus are in great danger from the external and internal forces. Tme for the hindus to unite and vote for the BJP.

from:
Raj Balakrishnan

Posted on: Jul 4, 2010 at 16:14 IST

Leaving aside the fact that this is football season,politics and democracy have become something akin to a modern sporting event.The ultimate point/purpose seems to be "winning".Democray was always SUPPOSED to be about principles and offering a choice to the people.Sadly,that is no longer the case(even in sports I might add!!!).
What is sadder though is this encouragement being given to Nitish Kumar to dump a communal ally.Some wrongs cannot be "righted" and when he chose to keep quiet during Gujarat, him and his partymen lost all right to swim to the high moral ground.Any parting of ways would be purely opportunistic and worthy of no respect from absolutely anyone,including the voter.Such opportunism is more dangerous than the outright communal intentions of organisations like the Bajrang Dal,RSS etc.Nitish Kumar,like his colleagues in Bihar,other states,all across India and indeed the entire world have turned into "professional" politicians and that,is truly lamentable.

from:
Sarat Rao

Posted on: Jul 4, 2010 at 15:08 IST

Excellent article by Ms Vidya Subramaniam. It would be a smart political move for Mr Nitish Kumar to jettison the BJP. However this separation from the BJP would potentially open the doors for a rapproachment with his erstwhile colleagues Mr Lalu Yadav and Mr Ram Vilas Paswan. This would consolidate the OBC and the minority vote and ensure a sweep on the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections for the troika. The upper caste votes would be split between the Congress and the BJP leaving the socialists to romp home in UP and influence the next Lok Sabha election through the third front.

from:
Prabhudas

Posted on: Jul 4, 2010 at 13:00 IST

THis authior and the newspaper seems to be fishing in troubledwater,when the issue has already died done. It appears this authir wishes to separate BJP and Janata Dal. it is wishful thinking borne out of furstration of long association of these two parties This newspaper supports Communists which is being thrown into Bay of Bengal, no articles on the sad status and diminsihing role of Communists

from:
Bala

Posted on: Jul 4, 2010 at 11:59 IST

You can't take away the credit away from BJP for the good governance in Bihar. The situation is Bihar is much different from Orissa. In Orissa their is monopoly of Mr. Patnaik over the tribal votebank. BJP has nothing much to do their. Orissa is already in a very able hand. What do you want? Do you want Bihar, again going into the wretch hands of Lalu-Paswan-Congress trio who did all to make this state the worst? BJP and JD(U) have been long time partners, these kinds of gimmicks are played to garner votes. They will no tear apart easily.

from:
Shekhar Sengar

Posted on: Jul 4, 2010 at 10:09 IST

All contents in this article clearly saying BJP is a sinking ship. supports from different parties are in continuous swing. Lack of clear cut agenda in bjp is the main factor for its decline. a face and a clear agenda is must this time.

from:
Vinayak

Posted on: Jul 4, 2010 at 03:19 IST

The problem with BJP is it trusts its allies and the agony is its trusted allies ditch them for personal gains. BJD won in 2009 not because people are happy with Naveen's performance, its just because of lack of firm opposition in congress and totally under prepared BJP. The only smart move by Naveen and team is not to give BJP any time to prepare for the elections. If BJP had enough time, Naveen would have barely made it to half way mark or even may land up short of it. Naveen is aware of this and thats the reason he hasn't broken the ties with BJP immediately after Kandhamal. This would have made Hindus angry vote against him and poor BJP followed its alliance dharma and stuck to him even when Naveen was supporting christian missionaries. This is BJP's another mistake. If Naveen is so right as per the author, let us see how he performs in 2014 with the triangular fight in place.

from:
kaspcm

Posted on: Jul 4, 2010 at 01:55 IST

'The Hindu' editorials' value is degrading very fast day-by-day. Its editorials seem to be focussed on useless issues and not on the real needs and focus of the nation.

from:
Ravi T

Posted on: Jul 3, 2010 at 22:03 IST

I would advise reader Sheela to go the Election Commission website and check out the results for herself. In 1989, the BJP had 8 Lok Sabha seats to the Congress' four. In 1991, the BJP had five Lok Sabha seats to the Congress' one seat. The BJP's vote share in this election was 16 per cent which is by no means minimal. In 1996, when the BJP and the Samata fought in an alliance, the BJP won 18 Lok Sabha seats for 20.54 per cent to the Samata Party's six seats for 14.45 per cent. The BJP picked up 21 Assembly seats for 8.41 per cent in its birth year of 1980 -- which is again not a small achievement. In the 1990 Assembly election, the BJP won 39 sests for 11. 61 per cent and in the 1995 Assembly election, it beat the Congress to the second spot with 41 seats for 12.96 per cent. Between them, the CPI and the CPI had 29 Assembly seats for 7.92 per cent in 1990 and 32 Assembly seats for 6. 20 per cent in 1995. The Samata Party won seven seats for 7 per cent in the 1995 Assembly election which it fought on its own. It should be clear from this that "in those days" the BJP did not come a "distant fourth". As for the details about Lalu's election, the point of my article was not to explain how he got elected. But to say that he became Chief Minister and went on to achieve great heights in contrast to Nitish who had to struggle to get where he has.

from:
Vidya Subrahmaniam

Posted on: Jul 3, 2010 at 18:27 IST

As stated in the article, Yes it is advisable for Nitish to walk out because BJP is growing in the name of Nitish Kumar also. Sooner or later they are going to be a threat to Nitish's JDU. They might either ask for a bigger share base or the CM. Any place where BJP would set to rule they would bring in a communal divide and would set it such that they are saviours of people. They would visionise to establish such in Bihar. In the case of Nitish, He has the name, the fame and right now in his peak to fight against any may that be RJD,Congress,BJP or Ram Vilas Pawan. It is true he might lose a lot because of caste votes,yet he can predict himself to be a single leader amongst this group in terms of vote shares. Even if he loses the caste votes he might get a few from their share because of his development. So it is perfect for Mr.Nitish to walk out of the alliance as History says and establish himself alone and promote his brand name rather than a BJP allied party. This daring act will definitely prove in the elections and even if he fails he can later get back with BJP as BJP would also not prefer sitting in the back bench and banging the benches. It is the right time for a perfect decision.
VIVEK A

from:
A VIVEK

Posted on: Jul 3, 2010 at 17:20 IST

The author is missing the caste angle. If Nitish breaks up with BJP, he will lose the votes of Brahmin and affluent sections. These sections will gravitate towards the Congress sensing the BJP is too weak to do well as they are devoid of support from other sections. It will lead to Congress doing much better and the rout of BJP. Not a good scenario for Nitish if he fails to get a clear majority.

from:
Raghu Srirangam

Posted on: Jul 3, 2010 at 16:50 IST

I just could not understand why the writer has such instance animosity with BJP. Go to Bihar, see how BJP and JD(U) have worked together for prosperity of Bihar which was five years ago totally entangled by the Jungle-Raaj of Lalu (with the support of Congress). BJP has done a great job their. You cant take away their credit and put that entirely on Nitish Kumar.Moreover JD(U) is totally dependent on BJP for upper caste voters(Bhumihars, Rajputs, Baniyas).
Instead of these petty political manoeuvers we readers would like to see more about the growing inflation and news related to Bhopal, nuclear liability bill.

from:
Shekhar Sengar

Posted on: Jul 3, 2010 at 16:36 IST

A very ill-researched article which loses sight of the fact that neither Lalu was projected as a claimant to the Chief Minister's post "during" 1990 assembly elections nor Nitish his "advisor" even though he might have been a close friend at that time. The Janata Dal did not get a majority in the elections though it emerged as the single largest party. Lalu and Nitish were both members of the Parliament and cooling their heels in Delhi. A voting of the Legislature Party was held for deciding the CM. Since the OBCs had only recently began asserting themselves, the party's senior leaders, including the now inactive George Fernandes, decided to field Lalu as "one of the nominees". The other was former CM and veteran socialist Ram Sundar Das, the same old man who entered Lok Sabha last year by defeating Ram Vilas Paswan. Victory of Das was being considered certain, though the entire episode was making the then Prime Minister Chandrashekhar feeling neglected. He was of the view that he should have been asked for advice. So he air-dropped his own nominee, Raghunath Jha, with the clear intention of spoiling the show. The intense caste polarisation of those times saw all Maithil Brahmin MLAs, who had earlier decided to support Das, voting in favour of Jha which allowed Lalu to win by default. Kumar was a greenhorn at that time, nay, even by the time Samata Party was formed under the leadership of George Fernances. That is the reason why for long Samata Party had to play second fiddle to the BJP, which contrary to what the reader says, was "not" "a force on its own" in Bihar, as claimed by the author. In those days, if Janata Dal used to be the largest party, the Congress which was in opposition came close second, followed by the Left Front. BJP came a distant fourth. When an article appears in an esteemed daily like The Hindu, we readers expect something well-researched even if not insightful. Such slovenliness makes jarring reading.

from:
sheela

Posted on: Jul 3, 2010 at 15:26 IST

Its a compelling article. I agree with author's judgement, but in politcs you have to walk extra miles before you take such a bold decision...if not handled carefully can be a disaster.

from:
Niranjan

Posted on: Jul 3, 2010 at 14:52 IST

Good article but the fact of the matter is if Nitish Kumar does the same as Naveen Patnaik did of dumping BJP, Nitish would fail since first there were no Kandhamal type of incident, second BJP is much stronger in Bihar unlike Orissa. Thirdly BJP has got a good state level leadership in Bihar than Orissa. People in Orissa was so affected by Kandhamal incidents, they gave overwhelming support to Naveen Patnaik. In Bihar if Nitish dumps BJP he would face fight from three opponents, Congress, Lalu & Paswan, BJP. There are other reasons as well. Unlike BJD, JDU has got national ambition as well and some presence in other states like Jharkhand etc. They need the alliance with BJP in all these places which BJD does not need. Unable to understand why the author wants Nitish to loose power.

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