Solar companies are shaking out just like car and computer companies before them.
Dozens of automobile manufacturers shook out to a handful of major ones;
Tesla is the first new one in decades.
So many computer hardware and software companies went under or were bought
by bigger ones that it would take a very long blog post to list them all;
I could name a dozen or two off the top of my head.
There’s a shakeout going on right now among mobile phone manufacturers:
even mighty Nokia is sinking.
The solar industry is going through that same normal shakeout phase.
Will electric utilities be next?

In 2009, after Spain’s market collapsed and the world faced a
crippling financial crisis, GTM Research predicted a shake-out in
the manufacturing sector. But unexpected growth in global demand,
particularly in European markets, helped keep many producers afloat.

Then, in 2010 and 2011, we saw a surge of new manufacturing capacity
— much of it driven by China — that created the
structural oversupply faced by the industry today. As illustrated by
the growing list of deceased solar companies and acquisitions, the
delayed shake-out in the industry is now well underway.

This morning at the GTM Solar Summit, Shayle Kann, vice president of
research, shared his outlook on consolidation, module prices, and
the shifting global demand through 2016. Here are four charts from
his presentation that provide a glimpse of what the world may look
like in the next three years.

In 2010, when the period of irrational growth began in solar
manufacturing, there were 357 active module producers.

By the end of this year, that number will be down to 145. And in
2016, it will drop below 100. (So if you’re at a conference talking
to a person involved in manufacturing, there’s a good chance he or
she might be out of a job or working for a different firm the next
time you see them.)

He then predicts that solar PV panel prices may actually rise
briefly due to fewer manufacturers.
However, as he notes, demand will keep going up.
And demand combined with economies of scale may make prices continue down
with
Moore’s Law.
I think his installed capacity graph is way too conservative,
because he doesn’t go back far enough, which would reveal that
2010 growth is not an anomaly, it’s
a steady continuation of the
previous decade (well, except in Georgia).
We shall see what happens in the next few years.

One thing’s for certain:
a few bankruptcies are not a problem for the world’s fastest-growing
industry.
They are merely a symptom of any industry growing that fast.
Solar panels will continue to spread, ever-faster,
and
electric utilities need to adapt
or soon their big utility shakeout will start, too.
The utility shakeout may look more like an increase
in companies, as many solar installers and vendors move in to
handle distributed solar power
if the incumbents won’t do it.
That’s my speculation, and again we’ll see.

2012 was a historic year for the U.S. solar industry. There were
3,313 megawatts (MW) of photovoltaic (PV) capacity installed
throughout the year, which represents 76% growth over 2011’s record
deployment totals. The fourth quarter of 2012 was also the largest
quarter on record as 1,300 MW came online, driven in part by
unprecedented installation levels in the residential and utility
markets. SEIA and GTM Research forecast that the market will
continue to grow at a steady clip with over 4,200 MW of PV and 940
MW of concentrating solar power (CSP) expected to come online in
2013. (All data from SEIA/GTM Research “U.S. Solar Market
Insight 2012 Year-In-Review” unless otherwise noted.)

Erdrich Umformtechnik to invest $39 million in Laurens County, Deal
reports

Gov. Nathan Deal announced today that Erdrich Umformtechnik GmbH &
Co.KG (Erdrich), a German-based automotive supplier, will construct
a state-of-the-art metal stamping facility in Dublin in Laurens
County. The company will create 178 jobs and invest $39 million in
the construction of this plant.

“Automotive industry suppliers find in Georgia the logistics
infrastructure, skilled workforce and overall business environment
necessary for them to compete globally while meeting the needs of
their customers,” Deal said. “I am also encouraged to
see yet another German company call Georgia home, indicating even
further that our efforts to build and foster international
relationships are yielding positive results. Georgia proudly
welcomes Erdrich to our state.”

Erdrich is a midsized family-owned company that produces complex
metal parts and subassemblies for the automotive industry, and has
been in the metal stamping business for more than 50 years. The
company has two plants in Germany, one in the Czech Republic and
another in China that supplies parts to other automotive supplier
companies as well to BMW, Mercedes and Volkswagen.

“Following an extensive multistate search for the right U.S.
business location for our company, we were delighted to find the
right fit in Dublin, Georgia,” said CEO Georg Erdrich.
“This very pro-business community met our requirements with
respect to logistics to our customers, access for our suppliers,
operating costs, workforce and quality of life. The economic
development leadership at the state and local level worked closely
with us to make our decision based on confidence in the data, the
business analysis and the leadership.”

So apparently at least one locality in Georgia is capable of attracting
this kind of industry.

AT&T is upgrading DSL service and requires more than a full day,
until 8AM Sunday, to do it.

So I happened to wake up and wanted to check something online.
No DSL service. (Yes, I rebooted the DSL modem.)
Determined the modem was working and the problem was beyond it in
AT&T’s network.
Thought maybe there’s a tree down on the line.

Called AT&T. Message said “high speed” Internet technical support
hours are 6AM to 11PM, so please call back then for best service.
Excuse me?
The Internet is supposed to shut down overnight?

Mayor Dave Bing is apparently working on a radical plan that would bulldoze a quarter of the city — some of the most desolate areas — and return it to farmland, the way it was before the automobile. Any residents still there would be relocated to stronger neighborhoods.

“The obsession with growth is sadly a very American thing. Across the US, there’s an assumption that all development is good, that if communities are growing they are successful. If they’re shrinking, they’re failing.”

Actually, building more subdivisions just increases the deficit between
tax revenues collected and cost of services provided.

Perman concludes:

Welcome to the future. Why does it look so much like 1910 instead of 2010?

Perhaps because 1910 had railroads for mass transit and cities were still
dense and close to existing services?