Hr 138 the peak gusts were 120mph offshore. NJ/LI/CT/RI/MA coasts seeing 30-35kt gusts. From there the max gusts decrease. From there on the max gusts are: Jersey Shore looking at 30-40kt gusts, Nyc area 35-45kt. LI 35-55kt. Bridgeport comes in with a max gust of 48kts up to 55kts in Groton. RI is 40kts in the N, 55kts in the south. SE MA is 45-55kts, including the Cape, Vineyard and Nantucket.

First of all - the NHC doesnt flip flop with each model suite and for good reason.

Second - your two points are kind of contradictory... You say you refuse to believe it will be anywhere near the coast in the same breath asking why the NHC doesnt change its track closer to the coast? See what I mean?

There is plenty of time here and until the models have some consensus or a better grasp, I see no reason for the NHC to make any significant changes - (not saying they may not need to at a later date)...

my points aren't really contradictory... i believe the NHC model out to sea and not asking them to flip flop, but in here people have been posting fairly consistently that it shows a track along the coast.

so my question was why the contradiction between NHC (and what i believe) vs. what models people are posting here?

The NAVGEM "Rule" states that, given its notorious progressive bias, the NAV can be a barometer (if you will) to what the others end up doing. So, if it is west of it's previous run, so too (often) will be the other global resolution models. IOW, it should almost always be the EASTERN-most model, in any particular suite of model runs.

We use it all the time in winter and, now, it seems to work just as well (in the main) with TC's.

But, like any "rule" (Typhoon Rule, Bering Sea Rule, etc.) it is not 100% (but not too much below) and can mislead.

So, I compare it to its own output from previous, then can anticipate a general move in that direction, from the other models. If a model doesn't adjust per the Rule, then I tend to not trust it. If the model does adjust to the Rule, then I give it more credit.

so the NHC is based purely on ensembles and ensembles are lower resolution?

the models being posted here are based on some more complex details?

The NHC states where they get their forecast ideas from in the Discussion section...

QUOTE

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 34NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017500 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017Later in the forecast period, a northward motion is expected as a mid-level high builds to the east-northeast. Jose is expected to movethrough a break in the subtropical ridge in 3-5 days. The officialtrack forecast is similar to its predecessor and is about in themiddle of the reliable guidance suite.