How Safe is the Caribbean?

I’ll be honest, that scared me a little. In about 9 months, I am taking my wife and three boys to the Caribbean, and had pondered St Lucia on our itinerary. Can I keep them safe?

Since the incident, there has been a large amount of emotional debate on sailing forums. It’s touched on should you carry guns to defend yourself, to what islands should you avoid. With the high profile homicide all over the news, there will probably be a direct impact of many millions of dollars in tourism revenue for St Lucia, for a country that desperately needs it.

But is it safe?

Well, maybe not. I wanted to find out.

A quick read of blog posts, forums and comments quickly shows that most peoples opinions are based in anecdotal evidence. If they have been trouble free, they think that islands is fine to visit, and vice versa. So, we need some better information.

The data that all those high end news outlets are quoting is the 2011 Global Study on Homicide from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNDOC). Amazingly, these news outlets are reporting homicide rates per 100,000 for the last year that data existed.

That’s bogus.

Let’s take Montserrat, with a worryingly high figure of 19.7 homicides per 100,000 population! Miami in 2011 was 16.8. So you’d be better walking the dark streets of Miami than this topical paradise island?

Well, when you look at the UNDOC data, you’ll see this:

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Montserrat

Rate

12.6

0.0

29.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

22.1

21.6

19.7

Montserrat

Actual

1

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

The first thing we see is that the last data was in 2008, that’s 5 years ago! The second is that the gang-like homicide rate is just due to a single homicide.

But the rate isn’t really that useful, so we need a better measure. First consider what a homicide rate implies. It’s not really a predictor of what crimes are committed against tourists, it’s mostly a (very) coarse measure of the lethal crimes in that country. The first step is to convert rates to absolute numbers. One then has to think of how these might be distributed across the country/island. At first, one might consider using area. That would give a coarse comparison of “what’s your chance of walking into trouble?” But, as sailors, let’s assume we stay (mostly) to the coastline. Many of the countries are islands chains, or strange shapes. This means that their “sailor contact area”, i.e. the coastline, doesn’t correlate well to the area. So, I looked up actual coastline lengths to make a correction for this to give the rates above.

This gives, for Monserrat for example, 0.04 homicides per year per mile of coastline. Now this doesn’t mean that, Trinidad has over 2 murders per mile of coast. It DOES mean that Trinidad is probably more dangerous than the British Virgin Islands. Its a comparative measure.

As the first measure, we score the islands 1-3. A 1 means it’s relatively low homicide rates, a 3 means it’s a little iffy.

Now, unlike other news outlets, we don’t stop here. Most of these homicides are not against tourists, it’s just one factor we can consider.

The Fed’s Advice

“The State Department’s Office of American Citizens Services and Crisis Management (ACS) administers the Consular Information Program, which informs the public of conditions abroad that may affect their safety and security.”

That sounds good. Let’s compare the narrative statements and warnings that the US government gives to its citizens to warn them of potential danger. For example, compare these two:

While Montserrat’s crime rate is relatively low, both petty and violent crimes do occur.

St Kitts: The government is currently working to combat an influx of illegal weapons onto the islands. Violent crime—including murder, petty street crime, automobile break-ins and burglary—continue to occur.

Again, we can give a rating from 1 to 3 based on the frequency of reports. Of course, these are self selected reporting. Where there are more sailors, there will be more reports, but not necessarily more incidents per sailor. But it’s just another data point.

The Safest and Most Dangerous Caribbean Islands

The result is a simple ranking from safest to least, taking a diverse range of data.

Rating Based on Embassy Reports

Rating Based on Homicide Rate

Rating Based on Noonsite Reports

Total Score

Anguilla

1

1

1

3

Cayman Islands

1

1

1

3

Dominica

1

1

1

3

Guadaloupe

1

1

1

3

Montserrat

1

1

1

3

St Martin (French)

1

1

1

3

Turks and Caicos Islands

1

1

1

3

Antigua and Barbuda

2

1

1

4

Barbados

1

2

1

4

Martinique

1

1

2

4

St Kitts

2

1

1

4

St Maartan

2

1

1

4

USVI

1

2

1

4

Bahamas

3

1

1

5

BVI

2

1

2

5

Grenada

1

1

3

5

Dominican Republic

2

3

1

6

Puerto Rico

2

3

2

7

St Lucia

2

2

3

7

St Vincent

2

2

3

7

Trinidad

3

3

3

9

The real data we need is crime committed against sailors per mile of coastline. That would give your your “incidence density.”

We can get this approximation though. Being aware of the “signal vs noise” in our data, we have to squint at this table. The basic conclusion is probably that most Caribbean islands are safe to travel, but if you visit Puerto Rico, St Lucia, St Vincent, Trinidad you should do so with care.

when I was visiting Trinidad as a visitor to a resort off of the beaten path, the owner came to our room the morning after our arrival and said it is best we not stay at his resort due to safety issues. He drove us into a the City and gave our choice of high end global hotels where we would be "safer" in addition found a bodyguard for us to use as a bodyguard/driver. The gentleman was very protective and told us "his people" would kidnap and slit your throat for $200.00 USD...very scary! When we travelled to Tobago, he had his friend who also worked as a bodyguard meet us off of the ferry. As it was, a local person had started a conversation with me regarding real estate during the trip on the ferry. Once off of the ferry, the body guard met us. The same person walked up to me saying we could stay with him at his house. The body guard had a few words with him and the fellow said he meant no harm and was being friendly??!! We arranged for our room at a resort and began touring the next day. We travelled to various villages on the island...every time I stepped out of the vehicle the locals began to approach the vehicle until they say the body guard step out -. At one point on a trip to the far end of the island, we had just driven out of a jungle area when the body guards phone rang...he said it was for me...well, I was as surprised as anyone! It happened to be the "local" from the ferry. He said there was a prime piece of land I should look at ...I told him to give the location to our driver and if we did have an interest we would contact him...he said "no" and said I had to go with him to have a look since it was such a private deal! I told him he could either tell my driver and we would look at it at our own leisure or forget it! He began to say something when the body guard/driver took the phone back and told the local to @#@#@#@#@#! When we arrived back at out resort, the body guard said I was not allowed to leave the condo nor sit on the balcony nor be in the suite alone. The next morning, he was at our door very early telling us he had arranged for a private plan to fly us back to Trinidad since it was not safe to be in Tobago at that time. I should mention, the two other females I was with - one was originally from a nearby island who had lived in Canada for the last 30 years and the 2nd person was married to a person from Trinidad. Beautiful island, fabulous food, fabulous people...except for the few who make the trouble and place these gorgeous islands and fabulous people in a position to not capitalize on the tourism economy the way they could! If they could get their criminals under control, the tourists would flock to the island bringing their dollars to spend which would increase the standard of living for all of the islanders! Very sad...maybe the school systems could teach a version of travel and tourism in the primary grades which could instill the value of "outsiders" contributions...a thought?!

Why isn't Haiti or Cuba listed?? Are they just listing the Windward & Lesser Antilles??? I remember in 2009 the island of Antigua had 10 murders including a couple on their honeymoon that were murdered.

A closer examination of the crime in Trinidad is called for - my understanding from the articles I have read is that almost all murders in Trinidad are related to drugs and gangs and occur in a very limited number of locations - the sorts of places normal people including cruisers don't visit unless of course they too are up to something nefarious

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