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Off-shore money pouring in on Miami Dolphins as favorite to land Peyton Manning

Where will Peyton Manning play in 2012? Right now, about 24 hours after he was waived by the Colts, the answer is anyone’s guess.

But off-shore, money is pouring in on the Dolphins.

Not only do two prominent off-shore gambling sites (Bovada.lv and Sportsbook.com) currently have the Dolphins as the favorite to land Manning, but their odds have improved astronomically over the past month – and especially over the last 24 hours. Sports books alter their odds based on the way the public is betting. Since the odds continue to drop, it means bettors view the Dolphins as a likely landing spot for Manning (We don’t necessarily condone off-shore gambling, but the odds are a good reflection of what the general public believes will happen).

To wit:

On February 6, Bovada had the Dolphins at 3:1 odds to land Manning – behind Arizona (2:1) and Washington (5:2) – and 35:1 odds to win the 2013 Super Bowl. At the time, Bovada sportsbook manager Kevin Bradley wrote:

“With Peyton Manning’s situation, it has made setting next year’s Super Bowl Odds very difficult and a reason you will see teams like Arizona and Miami at lower odds than what they would be in case Manning signs there. As for the Colts, even though there is a slim chance he stays they are at 50-1 but if he does leave will shoot up to around 100-1 and if stays would drop down to around 15-1. Just goes to show the importance of a guy like Peyton.”

A month later, on March 7, Bovada has the Dolphins as the leader in the clubhouse at 2:1 odds to land Manning. And they took their 2013 Super Bowl odds off the board until the Manning situation is settled. As Bradley writes this time:

“There is no way to properly offer this until Peyton Manning is signed with his new team, as he would make such a huge difference in odds not only for his new team but every team in that division, conference and realistically the whole NFL. This is probably the player that will impact a team’s odds the most in any sport since LeBron James signed with the Heat.”

Sportsbook, meanwhile, is adjusting its Dolphins odds like crazy this week. On March 2, the Dolphins were listed as the leader for Manning at +225 (meaning you win $225 for every $100 you spend). Yesterday, the odds first increased to +250, then almost immediately dropped to +175. Currently the Dolphins are at +125, which is darn close to being even-money (and at this point, it’s not even a good value bet). The next closest team is Arizona, at +350.

And Sportsbook isn’t shying away from futures bets right now. When the sun came up today, the Dolphins had +3000 odds to win the 2013 Super Bowl (you win $3,000 for every $100 you bet). By 9 a.m., those odds had dropped to +2000. By 10 a.m., it dropped even more, to +1500.

So as of right now, Sportsbook.com has the Dolphins as the eighth-likeliest team to win next year’s Super Bowl, behind the Packers, Saints, Patriots, Texans, Ravens, Eagles and Steelers. The Dolphins’ odds to win the AFC also increased from +1500 to +1000 today.

Think about that for a second – a team that went 6-10 last year, has made the playoffs once in the last decade, just fired its coach, has Matt Moore and Pat Devlin as its only quarterbacks under contract and has holes to fill at right tackle, pass rusher and cornerback, is currently ranked as the eighth-likeliest team to win next year’s Super Bowl.