Features

BALANCED MUMBAI, EXPERIENCED GUJARAT START AS FAVORITES

Mumbai Indians and Gujarat Lions again start as favourites for this year’s Indian Premier League title. While Mumbai have the highest impact bowling unit and the second-highest impact batting unit, Gujarat have an experienced squad that comprises big-match prowess and a strong Indian contingent. Ravindra Jadeja and Dwayne Bravo’s absence from the first part of the tournament might make the journey a little more arduous for Gujarat, but even in their absence, they should make it through to the playoff stages.

Kolkata Knight Riders and Sunrisers Hyderabad are the two other teams that are favourites for the playoffs. Kolkata have a strong bowling unit but are also the second-weakest batting unit in the tournament (after Delhi Daredevils) while Hyderabad possess the second-strongest bowling unit and also the most consistent side coming into IPL 2017 after Mumbai.

Royal Challengers Bangalore are the dark horse for this year’s IPL. They are by far the strongest batting unit coming into IPL 2017, but are also the most inconsistent (along with Delhi). They do not make the top four as they rely more on individual brilliance as opposed to a combined team effort (they have a few high impact players but others bring the overall team impact down). Without Kohli, though, their chances of landing a spot in the playoffs drop considerably. There is a direct cause and effect relationship between Kohli and Royal Challengers Bangalore.

Rising Pune Supergiants‘ batting might cause a few upsets. They have a strong overseas contingent too.

Delhi Daredevils and Kings XI Punjab will find it tough to compete with the other teams in the tournament. While Delhi has the weakest batting unit, Punjab has the weakest bowling unit and are also amongst the two most inconsistent teams in the tournament.

Customary disclaimer: This is what would happen if all teams played to potential – which never happens to-a-T, of course. But, given the substantial sample size of matches in IPL, our past IPL predictive analysis (Impact Index has correctly predicted 17 of the 24 semi-finalists of the previous six editions of the IPL. Thus, the forecast success ratio in getting projected semi-finalists right is 71%) suggests that not even the seemingly volatile T20 format of the game is beyond the scope of such analysis – as most teams seem to play closer to their impact (and perhaps, potential) cumulatively.

This is how our Impact table stands before IPL 2017.

Team

Overall Impact

Batting Impact

Bowling Impact

Runs Tally Impact

Strike Rate Impact

Pressure Impact

Chasing Impact

Wickets Tally Impact

Economy Impact

Failure Rate (in %)

Form Impact (Since 2015)

Mumbai Indians

100

95

100

85

25

92

58

93

100

41

100

Gujarat Lions

91

92

90

89

14

83

50

93

82

45

82

Kolkata Knight Riders

86

85

96

84

13

100

67

100

82

46

84

Sunrisers Hyderabad

85

91

97

89

13

67

58

100

92

42

89

Royal Challengers Bangalore

78

100

91

100

100

83

100

92

100

47

79

Rising Pune Supergiants

76

88

80

89

13

83

50

94

77

44

79

Kings XI Punjab

71

88

73

90

17

83

50

81

59

47

71

Delhi Daredevils

66

68

92

72

14

83

67

100

82

44

72

Note: 1) All impact parameters (apart from failure rate) are expressed on a scale of 0 to 100, with the maximum (100) assigned to the highest impact team in that parameter. All other teams are scaled relative to that. 2) Data includes all T20s (international and domestic), with higher weightage to international performances 3) Numbers are based on the 20 players most likely to be fielded by each franchise

MUMBAI INDIANS

Strengths:
1) The best bowling and the second-best batting unit (after Bangalore) in the tournament
2) Comebacks of Lasith Malinga and Lendl Simmons whose services were missed last year, due to injury
3) Ability to restrict opposition batsmen amongst the best in the tournament
4) Big-Match players

Uncapped Indian player(s) to watch out for: Jitesh Sharma and Krishnappa Gowtham

Interesting Impact fact: Lasith Malinga is the highest impact fast bowler (min. 60 matches) in the history of T20 cricket.

Rohit Sharma: Can he make Mumbai Indians the most successful IPL franchise by lifting the trophy this year?

GUJARAT LIONS

Strengths:.
1) Best Big-Match prowess
2) Strong Indian contingent

Weaknesses:
1) Batting can succumb while chasing
2) Scoring at a high run-rate
3) Indifferent lead up to the tournament for their highest impact batsman—Suresh Raina
4) Ravindra Jadeja and Dwayne Bravo’s unavailability for the start of the tournament. Without them, Gujarat Lions come in as the fourth-highest impact team of the tournament (after Mumbai Indians, Kolkata Knight Riders and Sunrisers Hyderabad)

Interesting Impact fact: Only AB de Villiers and David Warner have scored a higher proportion of runs at a Strike Rate Impact higher than Chris Lynn in domestic T20s since 2015.

Gautam Gambhir: Arrested his T20 batting slide with solid performances in the IPL last season. Can he & Uthappa hit a rich vein of form again?

SUNRISERS HYDERABAD

Strengths:

1) Their progress is dependent on their bowling force — only Mumbai Indians have a higher impact bowling attack in the tournament
2) They are an in-form team; Form Impact is second only to that of Mumbai Indians’

Weaknesses:
1) Barring David Warner, they have a sluggish batting line-up
2) Indifferent form of Shikhar Dhawan leading up to the tournament
3) Managing Mustafizur Rahman’s workload a huge concern

1) Propensity to score big runs
2) Presence of good quality all-rounders like Ben Stokes, Daniel Christian, Rajat Bhatia make them a potential threat in the tournament
3) Emergence of Adam Zampa as a top quality T20 bowler

Interesting Impact fact: In T20Is, Ben Stokes has been poor. In fact, he barely manages to be a genuine all-rounder and has a pretty high failure rate of 60%. In domestic T20s ,though, he has been a genuine match-winner with a high impact performance once every four matches and a failure rate of only 30%.

Ben Stokes: Andrew Flintoff IPL version 2.0? RPS will hope not.

KINGS XI PUNJAB

Strengths:
1) Ability to score big runs. Second-best in this regard in the tournament after Royal Challengers Bangalore
2) High impact foreign batting contingent

Weaknesses:
1) Weakest bowling unit. Least restrictive
2) Most inconsistent team along with Royal Challengers Bangalore
3) Poor Form (lowest Form Impact amongst all teams)