We are about one month from training camp, and the Edmonton Oilers are a fairly predictable organization. Can we identify the 23-man opening night roster from here? Let’s give it a try.

THE EDMONTON OILERS 2016-17 (F)

C Connor McDavid, 19. Generational talent delivered ridiculous results when healthy. If he plays 82 games, I think the Oilers make the playoffs. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.

L Milan Lucic, 28. Big man has averaged 53 points over his last three seasons and is a solid possession player. Oilers spent so much gold in pursuit of the next Lucic, finally grabbed the original Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.

C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 23. If Chiarelli sees him as David Krejci West—and he should—Nuge should be be here for the rest of the decade. Needs a comeback season. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.

R Jordan Eberle, 26. Scored at a 30-goal clip a year ago and should be able to hit that number in the coming season. The Oilers badly need him healthy and productive. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.

L Benoit Pouliot, 29. Underrated player, his aggressive forecheck and smart play give the Oilers a bona fide sortie buster. Could score 25 with McDavid. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.

C-R Leon Draisaitl, 20. Posted 51 points and finished No. 2 in team scoring a year ago. Many wonder how much his play will be impacted by the loss of Hall. That is a key question in the coming season. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.

R Nail Yakupov, 22. His eight goals last season will hopefully be his career nadir. The young winger needs to be productive from the early going, and the Oilers need to put him in a position to succeed. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.

L Patrick Maroon, 28. Big man had a gigantic impact after coming over at the deadline. We should temper our expectations (he scored at a 40-goal clip as an Oiler) but a bona fide addition. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.

C Mark Letestu, 31. A very important player for multiple reasons. There are observers who diss Letestu for his lack of 5×5 offense, but he is a swiss army knife C who can help in all kinds of ways. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.

R Zack Kassian, 25. Rugged winger has enough skill to contribute and is somewhat unique among RWs on the current Oilers roster (very physical, enforcer). Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.

R Iiro Pakarinen, 24. Young physical winger pushed past all of the high draft picks in the minors to win the day with new coach Todd McLellan. Utility forward has a job in the NHL. Chances of Making the Oilers: 90%.

L Matt Hendricks, 35. Role players who survive in the NHL until 35 are damned hard workers who have sacrificed. Hendricks is such a player. Chances of Making the Oilers: 90%.

R Jesse Puljujarvi, 18. He is big (6.04, 203), fast and skilled—and his best hockey a year ago came in the spring (10, 4-5-9 in Finnish playoffs) and International tournaments. Chances of Making the Oilers: 80%.

C Anton Lander, 25. Lander could help this roster enormously by filling a checking role while chiming in some offense. He should be up for this role, needs a strong response to 15-16. Chances of Making the Oilers: 75%.

C Jujhar Khaira, 22. He is in a very good spot entering training camp. Khaira is in a position to push several forwards (Lander, Hendricks) and may end up as a regular on the 4line by season’s end. Chances of Making the Oilers: 34%.

L-R Taylor Beck, 25. Interesting addition, he has size (6.02, 203) and enough skill (NHL: 87, 11-12-23) to suggest he could be productive in a support role. Can play either wing. Chances of Making the Oilers: 12%.

C-L Drake Caggiula, 22. A very good chance he sees NHL time in the coming year. Opening night? Probably needs an injury up the depth chart to make it. NHLE: 22-22-44. Chances of Making the Oilers: 10%.

R Tyler Pitlick, 24. Oilers signed him for a reason, and there is a substantial amount of uncertainty at his position. Has to separate himself from Pakarinen. Chances of Making the Oilers: 7%.

R Patrick Russell, 23. A real long shot—new pro, speed a concern—but he has size and is physical so has a chance. Chances of Making the Oilers: 1%.

R Anton Slepyshev, 22. 1 percent. Makes the list because there are many elements Edmonton looks for in a player—size, speed and skill. He did not show enough offense last year, and that is a concern. Chances of Making the Oilers: 1%.

THE EDMONTON OILERS 2016-17 (D)

LD Oscar Klefbom, 23. He is an outstanding young defender who has responded very well to the heavy work on Edmonton’s backline. Injury the only concern, and it is a worry. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.

RD Adam Larsson, 23. A capable young blue, effective in defending sorties. A pressure situation for the young man as he enters his first year in Edmonton. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.

LD Andrej Sekera, 30. Strong debut season for the Oilers (30 points, effective play) included some adventurous partners. Hopefully the Oilers settle in a capable partner this year. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.

RD Mark Fayne, 29. Defense-first blue struggled in his first season under Todd McLellan—even spending a week in Bakersfield. Returned and played effectively. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.

LD Brandon Davidson, 24. A strong debut season has his career trajectory on a much higher arc than most expected. We don’t know what he can’t do. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.

LD Darnell Nurse, 21. Big, strong, fast, rambunctious. I will never understand why the Oilers didn’t send him down after 20 games. Development is still important at 20. Chances of Making the Oilers: 90%.

LD Jordan Oesterle, 24. Oesterle is a fast train who can push the offense, and is learning the defensive game. Isn’t waiver eligible but showed well last season in his NHL chance. Chances of Making the Oilers: 50%.

LD David Musil, 23. 12 percent. Musil is my No. 2 choice for 7D if there is an internal solution. He has one big advantage—because he requires waivers, Edmonton may keep him if the club values him in a big way. As you may recall, Brandon Davidson was the No. 8 defender last fall when the season began. Chances of Making the Oilers: 30%.

LD Griffin Reinhart, 22. Reinhart will need to blow the doors off to make the opening night roster, but imo he will play the second half of the season as a regular. I remain uncertain about the actual gap between Reinhart and Darnell Nurse, but the cap bonus has a major impact on GR’s odds. Chances of Making the Oilers: 27%.

LD Mark Fraser, 29. I think this is probably a Bakersfield signing, but you never know and Edmonton clearly wants an intimidating aspect to the defense during the 2016-17 season. Chances of Making the Oilers: 2%.

LD Dillon Simpson, 23. His two AHL seasons have seen steady progress and Simpson arrives at this training camp healthy (unless I have missed something). He is 6.02, 197, so would be one of PCs smaller defenders should he make the roster. Chances of Making the Oilers: 1%.

THE EDMONTON OILERS 2016-17 (G)

Cam Talbot, 29. De facto No. 1 and the Oilers passed on the opportunity to find someone to push him. From December through season’s end he was strong—Edmonton could make a playoff push with above average goaltending. Chances of Making the Oilers: 100%.

Jonas Gustavsson, 31. Oilers free agent signing at this position remains a small mystery. His .908SP last year trailed NHL average (.915) by some margin, and Peter Chiarelli had other options. There is no connection between the two men that I know (Gustavsson signed with Boston in October a year ago) and I don’t think this player will hold the backup job all year. Chances of Making the Oilers: 50%.

Laurent Brossoit, 23. Two straight strong seasons in the AHL have him knocking at the door, despite a wobbly performance in his NHL audition a year ago (he had one brilliant game, four poor ones). I think the Oilers love him, and my latest proof is the man chosen to challenge his NHL path. Chances of Making the Oilers: 50%.

OILERS PROJECTED TRAINING CAMP ROSTER

G Cam Talbot—No. 1 goalie at the NHL level, no competition for the position.

G Jonas Gustavsson—No. 2 goalie going into camp, doubt he retains role for the entire year.

30 Responses to "RIESEN TO BELIEVE"

– Great post LT! Coming up with exact figures like 27% of making roster makes me chuckle: it’s like those real-estate condo ads you see: “A 9.13% RETURN ANNUALLY”. Becasue you know, that .13% shows they really did their homework!

– Still hold hope another D becomes available, to keep Nurse and Griff on the farm. We be like:

Klef-Larsson
Sek-bona-fide top-4
Davidson-Fayne

– Then you have Fayne who can move up or out in trade, Davidson up, and kids on farm fighting

kinger_OIL:
– Great post LT!Coming up with exact figures like 27% of making roster makes me chuckle: it’s like those real-estate condo ads you see: “A 9.13% RETURN ANNUALLY”.Becasue you know, that .13% shows they really did their homework!

– Still hold hope another D becomes available, to keep Nurse and Griff on the farm. We be like:

Klef-Larsson
Sek-bona-fide top-4
Davidson-Fayne

– Then you have Fayne who can move up or out in trade, Davidson up, and kids on farm fighting

Haha. I actually sat in several seminars (I have been blessed) about setting pricing. There is a whole thing that makes $9.99 more enticing than $10. Strangest damned thing. 🙂

Sleppy turning the corner and moving up the lineup would solve so much. A bit of a Russian Pitlick until then but I’d put money on him doing it before any of the other tweeners including the ones we expect to make the team ahead of him.

Yak playing with McDavid would solve another problem but Ebs on that top line is too sexy I’m sure. It’s a shame though because it renders Yak useless….again.

Today I will be in a vegetative state in front of the TV. Far too much to watch. Hip (Many tears will flow I’m sure), Eskies, Olympics and UFC 202 should be enough to keep me busy. Enjoy the weekend Lowtidians. The smell of hockey is in the air.

Since it is Draisaitl’s contract year, I wouldn’t be surprised if they just threw him on the 3rd line for sheltered minutes.

This coming season appears to be another evaluation season where Chiarelli & Tmac see what they’ve got. Evident by the fact that they didn’t sign a middle six RW or 3rd line C. He also didn’t get a top 4 RHD that can run a PP, which I expect him to accomplish next off season.

For 2017/18 I’m expecting a lot of things to fall into place and a playoff roster to take shape. Nuge will be turning 25 and will likely be entering his prime. Draisaitl will have fully adjusted to the rigors of the NHL schedule, will have had more experience, and will be given more responsibility. Puljujarvi will earn a top 6 spot on the roster (he may very well come out ahead of Yak in the middle of this coming season).

Pouliot & Yak are likely the odd guys out to be traded prior to that season (ideally packaged together for a top 4 RHD who can run a PP). I don’t see Yak beating out Puljujarvi or Eberle, and Drai will likely push Pouliot down to the 3rd line where he is too expensive for such a role (also complementary middle six wingers will be easy to replace). A package including Pouliot & Yak would be the least detrimental to the top 6 (the alternative being to trade Nuge which I’m against).

Assuming we trade for the PP 2nd pairing RHD, the next optimal move imo is to sign a veteran RH 3rd line center to anchor the line and support the AHLers that the Slepyshevs, Caggulias and so on who will get call ups.

Someone will earn a 3rd line RW or LW job out of Khaira, Caggulia, Slepyshev, Pitlick, Pakarinen or Lander. It’s possible two players could, but I’d like to sign or trade for an experienced middle six winger who can move up in case of an injury.

Maroon & Kassian will likely be pushed down the line up to the 4th line if we sign a middle six winger and someone with a more offensive upside from the AHL (Caggulia/Khaira/Pitlick/Slepy) pushes the other one down. That’s a pretty expensive 4th line, I’d expect one of them to be gone. Fully possible one of them earns the 3rd line role (assuming Tmac is after three scoring lines).

(Confession: I mentally substitute “It was Marchant in ’97” for “It was back in ol’ ’72” in the opening lines of “Fireworks”. If the Oilers ever win another cup, that 1997 overtime winner against Dallas might be supplanted as my favourite moment as an Oilers fan. Might.)

We needed a minute munching shut down D which is why Hamonic was an attractive option during last season. As for trading Taylor Hall and bringing in Milan Lucic, it was a major culture shift for the better.

I’m guessing it will be easier to find that PP specialist during the mass shuffling that the expansion draft is bound to create, so I don’t entirely mind this measured approach. By the way there is reason to be optimistic about Larsson, him being close in age to Klefbomb and both being Swedes. They will make an excellent shut down pairing.

If one has McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins to quarterback two power play units, and Larsson, Klefbom, Davidson, and Sekera from which to chose one D on each unit…all of whom have a decent shot and excellent passing skills…then it is entirely on the coaching if the power play is ineffective.

[…] Never Tell Me The Odds: With training camp just over a month away, Lowetide gives out some odds for each player in the organization when it comes to making the team out of camp. The core group is pretty well surrounded, but some of the depth players and end of roster options might surprise you. […]