PSU to be underdog in final three games, according to power rating website

October 20, 2011 - Cory Giger

There are many ways to crunch the numbers and come up with a point spread for one team versus another, and the guys who do that in Vegas make millions on being able to come up with accurate indicators.

There's a good website called the Born Power Index (bornpowerindex.com) that assigns each team a power rating and makes it easy to see what a point spread might look like by comparing one team to the power rating of an opponent.

The Born website, which provides a power rating for all college teams as well as high school teams in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, claims to have had a 79.7 percent success rate in picking winners during the 2007-08 season (the most recent year listed). A friend of mine uses it frequently and attests to its ability to pick winners.

Penn State's rating, according to the Born website, is 93.0. So you punch in the Nits vs. their remaining opponents to get a power rating differential. A point spread can then be assigned by giving the home team 3 points.

Penn State's power rating of 93.0 compared to:

Opponent............Rating.......Vs. PSU........PSU's point spread

at Northwestern.....84.5.........-8.5...........-5.5

vs. Illinois.............95.9.........+2.9...........pick 'em

vs. Nebraska........100.5........+7.5...........+4.5

at Ohio State........98.8..........+5.8...........+8.8

at Wisconsin.........123.2........+30.2..........+33.2

The Born Power Index may or may not be the most scientific way to compare teams, and there are other computer formulas such as the Sagarin ratings that do this, as well. But this site does make it easy to see how one team might fare against any other in the country.

As you can see, the Lions would be underdogs in their final three games and a huge underdog at Wisconsin, according to this website. Take it for what it's worth (for entertainment purposes only, of course).