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In working with several clients of mine, I’ve become intimately familiar with the $10M plus market place in Manhattan. I predict the $10M plus market place will offer buyers great opportunities through 2019.

Why? In 2012 developers started building luxury buildings; the high cost of land and development somewhat forced developers’ hand into the luxe market to make numbers work. An unprecedented re-sale at 15 Central Park West topped $80 million started the ultra-luxury race at One57 and in Manhattan everyone chased the money. The market took off and developers followed and the funnel of buyers seemed unending.

20/20 hindsight shows us that the top of the market was early 2016. Cracks started though in 2014 when oil prices dropped, the US dollar strengthened, Manhattan’s prices shot through the roof and BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) growth faltered. Looking for better returns global buyers turned to other markets including San Francisco and the Los Angeles area. This market continues to adjust here.

Today (Jan 28, 2019) in Manhattan there are 600+/- active homes priced above $10 Million:8% of all active listings on the market. As a comparison in 2014, $10M+ sales represented only 1-2% of Manhattan properties. We have a high-inventory issue.

Newly signed $10 Million+ contracts currently average approximately 19 per month, meaning there’s a 30-month supply of $10 million+ homes in Manhattan. Uber-luxe homes which sold in Jan 2019, were discounted from 7-30% off their last asks.

This summer, a luxury family home in Scarsdale, NY sold for $1.75 million. On the surface, such a sale is hardly remarkable. In fact, perhaps the most unremarkable part of the sale is that the buyer’s Chinese nationality drew little attention. Even a year or two ago, the sale of a non-Manhattan luxury home to a foreign investor would have been unusual. Today, it’s increasingly commonplace. The Shanghai-based investor who purchased the Scarsdale home (and immediately rented it out to a local family) is one of hundreds of Chinese investors who are increasingly investing in real estate not just in Manhattan, but also in New York’s boroughs and suburbs.

In the last year, Chinese buyers have replaced Russian buyers as the primary real estate buyers in New York– and this trend is expected to continue throughout 2015. Given current international market fluctuations and Russia’s continued economic struggles, this news may come as little surprise to many of you.

Since last year, Ukrainian turmoil, economic sanctions against Russia and a progressively worsening economy have slowed down Russian purchases in New York real estate, said Marlen Kruzhkov, an attorney with Gusrae Kaplan Nusbaum who advises many investors from former Soviet Union countries.

Chinese buyers, on the other hand, are eagerly pulling savings from their home country and investing overseas, and New York real estate has been a prime target for these investments. The recent stock market crash, including the late August drop of 8.46% in a single day for the Chinese exchange – capping off a 32% drop between June and July, according to Bloomberg data – has only enhanced the trend.

In the year ending in March 2015, for the first time, Chinese buyers exceeded all other buyers in terms of unit purchases and dollar volume, purchasing $28.6 billion worth of U.S. property, according to National Association of Realtors. In particular, they have been finding their safe heaven in New York real estate.

“New York is an international market. They feel that the market is very transparent, very conservative and they feel very comfortable in coming to the U.S. and to buy real estate in New York,” said Emily Zhu, director of marketing for Advantage America EB-5 Group, who works with many Chinese developers and investors in the U.S.

As the Scarsdale purchase reflects, Manhattan is no longer the only target for foreign investors, who have been seeking better prices and yields in the other boroughs. “A lot of Chinese buyers are starting to accept places others than Manhattan,” Ms. Zhu said.

For instance, Chinese developer New Empire Real Estate (NERE) is currently building on Park Slope’s Fourth Avenue and “there are a float of Chinese buyers that buy even before the development is constructed; there are a lot of pre-sales,” said Ms. Zhu, who represents the developer.

After the stock market turmoil, “some Chinese investors will want even more to diversify their assets in order to own something that is tangible rather that intangible,” Ms. Zhu said.

Things have changed for Russian buyers. “The economy is contracting terribly and the situation is getting progressively worse,” said Mr. Kruzhkov. As a result, he added, “The nature of purchasers has changed. There are less people buying.”

In particular, small and medium-sized Russian investors seem to have disappeared altogether from the New York City real estate market.

Only the wealthiest are still around, but they have changed their targets.

“In the last 6 months, they have been investing in different things, they are not necessarily buying apartments. They are investing more in development projects or pre-existing income producing buildings, more commercial or mixed-use,” properties said Mr. Kruzhkov.

For example, one of his Russian clients recently sold a Manhattan apartment for almost $25 million. He immediately re-invested in a development project.

A major flow of foreign capital into New York’s development market – especially as Chinese markets continue to cool – is a trend to watch in the coming months.

With 78 Active luxury condominium and Penthouse listings priced at or above $20 million in Manhattan as of March 18th, 2014 I wanted to explore and share New York’s Top 10 Active Sales by price. All of the top 10 are either on or near Central Park. The highest asking price is $100 million with lowest of the top 10 being priced at $60 million. As a reference point, in 2008 when the market crashed, $43 million was about the highest price being paid for New York’s top properties. Today Read more…

In the last weeks both Jonathan Miller (on Curbed) and Urban Digs reported and provided data to support what buyers and sellers alike are finding in the Manhattan luxury condo and luxury loft market; inventory is at seven-year lows and competition among buyers for new apartments that hit the market is super high. Multiple bids are back, especially in the $2-5 Million price point, and buyers in areas like Tribeca, Greenwich Village, the West Village and on the Upper West Side are feeling the heat. While the entry level market is very competitive downtown, pricing still needs to be on-target otherwise buyers are moving onto the next best property.

Check out these graphs created by Jonathan of Miller Samuel and Noah of Urban Digs. They say a picture is worth a thousand words. These graphs take things from ‘broker-speak’ to reality.

Over 26 years ago I packed two bags and moved to New York from Switzerland. Sometimes when you have been somewhere for so long, you learn to see what you see and forget what you saw when you first set foot in the city of your dreams. That’s what is so beautiful about this video by Andrew Clancy. As a newcomer to Manhattan, he shot his vision of our great city. Read more…

In this recently posted photo gallery by Forbes (click link) ranked the top 11 cities that the super rich (HNWI) are choosing to buy in. London ranked #1 with New York luxury real estate coming in at #2.

With a growing personal network of global brokers that I have met and know, it’s becoming evident to me how Read more…