Bhutan Assessment 2008

The peaceful Himalayan
Kingdom of Bhutan was rocked by a series of explosions between 11.10am
and 2.10pm at four different locations, all in the South Western region
of the country, including one in the capital Thimpu, on January 20,
2008. While no loss of life was reported, a woman sustained splinter
injuries.

While the low-intensity
explosions constitute no significant threat to the country’s security,
they are disturbing, particularly in the context of a country that is
currently making its transition from monarchy to parliamentary democracy
– the first general elections, to choose 47 candidates for Bhutan’s
National Assembly, the lower House of Parliament, will be held on March
24, 2008. Two parties — the Druk Phuensum Tshogpa (DPT, Bhutan Harmony
Party) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) — will contest the elections
that will formally end absolute monarchy in the country.

The first blast occurred
at 11:10am near the vegetable market in Samste. The second blast took
place at 11:45am in Thimpu town. At 1:20pm, a third blast occurred near
the gate of the Tala Guest House at Gedu in the Chukha District. At
2:10pm the fourth blast occurred at Dagapela in the Dagana District,
where a second device, which failed to explode, was found in the same
area. While there was no injury to any person or damage to property
in the blasts in Samtse and Dagapela, one woman suffered splinter injuries
in the blast at Gedu. The explosion in the Thimpu town shattered the
window panes of buildings. In an e-mail declaration, the newly formed
United Revolutionary Front of Bhutan (URFB) claimed responsibility for
these blasts. The declaration, credited to URFB’s ‘commander-in-chief’
Karma, stated that the group was formed on April 12, 2007.

Meanwhile, the Royal Bhutanese
Police (RBP) claimed that any one of the three Nepal-based organizations
could have been responsible for the attacks: the Bhutan Tiger Force,
the Bhutan Maoist Party and the Communist Party of Bhutan. Open source
information, however, indicates that all these groups are, in fact,
a single organisation – the Bhutan Communist Party (Marxist-Leninist-Maoist)
[BCP (MLM)] of which Bhutan Tiger Force (BTF) is the armed wing.

These explosions have occurred
after more than a year since the last blasts in the country. On December
2, 2006, four persons, including three Indian nationals, were injured
in a bomb blast in Phuntsholing town. No one claimed responsibility
for the attack. Although the disruptive forces failed to carry out any
violent action in 2007, there were a few attempts which were successfully
foiled by the security forces:

August 10: RBP personnel
prevented a blast by detecting an explosive device in a five-storey
building opposite Kuenga Hotel in Phuntsholing.

May 28: An improvised explosive
device was discovered below a culvert about four kilometres from Phuntsholing
on the Phuntsholing-Thimpu highway.

April 23: A bomb, believed
to have been planted by anti-monarchy rebels, was recovered and subsequently
defused near a bridge in Phuntsholing, approximately 180 kilometres
south of the capital Thimpu, and close to the Indian border. The BTF
and the hitherto unknown Bhutan Revolutionary Youth claimed responsibility
for planting the device. The RBP, however, blamed the BTF for planting
the explosive device.

The BCP (MLM) was reportedly
formed in the United Nations Refugee Camps in eastern Nepal and is largely
comprised of Bhutanese refugees of Nepali origin. The BCP (MLM) brought
out its first Press Release, signed by ‘Vikalpa’ as ‘general secretary’
through the Website of the Communist Party of Nepal- Maoist (CPN-Maoist)
on April 22, 2003. After its formation in Nepal, the group has reportedly
strengthened bases inside Bhutan. The group has youth, peasant and student
wings that have begun distributing pamphlets and posters even in urban
centres like Thimpu, Paro and Haa.

Banned by the Bhutanese
Government, the BCP (MLM) has close ties with the CPN-Maoist. The major
demands of the BCP (MLM) include the early repatriation of the refugees
to Bhutan and the declaration of Bhutan as a ‘sovereign democracy’.
The URFB has a similar set of demands.

On May 25, 2007, RBP personnel
arrested 30 people, including three students, who had joined the BCP
(MLM), in Samtse District. During the Court proceedings in the cases
registered against these persons, it was observed that the accused had
been in touch with cadres of the CPN-Maoist. The Police stated that
the accused were engaged in seditious meetings, held in Katarey and
Ugyentse, to recruit more people and collect donations to finance subversive
activities. Their plans were to create awareness of the communist ideology
and provide training in arms and explosives to start an armed rebellion
against the Government, to disrupt the peace and stability and the democratisation
process taking place in the country. The accused were also allegedly
providing support to the Ngolops (Bhutanese refugees of Nepali origin
residing in Nepal) in their seditious activities against the State.

The unresolved issue of
Ngolops remains a critical problem for Bhutan. Over 105,000 Bhutanese
refugees reside in seven camps in the eastern Districts of Nepal since
the ethnic exodus that followed the implementation of Bhutan’s Citizenship
Act of 1985 and the subsequent nation-wide Census of 1988. The Bhutan
Government has tended to resist all repatriation because most of the
refugees are of Nepali origin, and this is seen as creating a 'demographic
imbalance' in some areas of the thinly-populated country, as well as
a threat to the Monarchy. While growing international pressure has forced
Bhutan to accept the idea of repatriation of some refugees, non-Bhutanese
and Bhutanese with criminal and subversive records will certainly be
excluded, accounting for a sizeable and potentially volatile chunk of
the refugee population. Bhutan also fears that the repatriated groups
may be 'infected' by the Nepalese Maoists. The Bhutanese Home Secretary,
Dasho Penden Wangchuk, stated on September 23, 2006, that the growing
nexus between people in the camps in eastern Nepal, the Maoists and
Indian Left Wing Extremists would have far-reaching impact on the region’s
security. Wangchuk noted: "It is a confirmed fact that there is today
a growing nexus between Maoists and the people in the camps in eastern
Nepal … We also have information confirming radical elements from the
camps in Nepal having received armed training from the Maoists."

Meanwhile, there are reports
that almost half of the Bhutanese refugees living in Nepal have opted
for a new life in the United States (US) and have applied for resettlement
in the US, after the US Government’s decision to offer a new home and
life to the refugees who were evicted from Bhutan because of their Nepali
origin. The first batch of refugees was scheduled to arrive in the US
in January 2008. Other countries like Canada, Australia and Denmark
have also offered resettlement in their respective countries. 'It is
our hope that in 2008 more than 13,000 refugees will be resettled from
Nepal,' said the American Ambassador to Nepal, Nancy J. Powell, in a
statement issued by the US Embassy in Kathmandu on January 16, 2008.

However, the BTF has opposed
this ‘third country settlement’. On December 13, 2007, the BTF shot
at and injured a refugee, identified as Subba, at Beldangi I camp near
Sangam Chowk in Damak, Nepal. Two others, C. L. Thapa and D. B. Moktan,
who were with Subba escaped the shooting. Later, claiming responsibility
for the attack, the BCP (MLM) ‘chairman’ Surya declared: "The resettlement
in America was a plan to obstruct the repatriation of the Bhutanese
to their homeland and this action (shooting) was carried to foil the
resettlement." He also warned that "Anyone supporting and advocating
for the third country resettlement would face similar consequence (sic)."
Earlier, on June 7, 2007, the BTF warned the refugees not to support
third country settlement. The group reportedly pasted pamphlets and
posters in the Jhapa and Morang camps in Nepal, which declared that
resettling refugees in third countries was against the refugee's movement
of respectful return to their country and was meant to ‘brush aside’
the existence of refugees. These acts seeking to disrupt third country
settlement and whipping up sentiments underlines the BCP-MLM’s devisive
agenda and their principal worry about the prospective loss of their
cadres – since Ngolops provide the recruiting base for the radical group.

Amidst all this, Bhutan
remains en route to democracy. Elections to the 47-member National Assembly
(Lower House of Parliament), to effect the transition to parliamentary
democracy from the existing monarchy, are scheduled to be held on March
24, 2008. Earlier, on December 31, 2007, the country voted for 15 of
the 20-member Nation Council (Upper House of Parliament). Two new political
parties formed in 2007 are in the fray. The DPT is believed to be the
frontrunner but expects a strong challenge from the PDP. Both the parties
draw their leaders from the bureaucracy and other professional groups.
The country's first elected Prime Minister is expected to assume office
a day after the elections, Chief Election Commissioner Kunzang Wangdi
disclosed. Under a Draft Constitution, the King will remain as head
of State after the vote. However, the Parliament will have the power
to impeach the 27-year-old monarch, Jigme Keshar Namgyal Wangchuck,
by a two-thirds vote.

Bhutan has largely persisted
as the only fortunate exception in an otherwise violence-torn South
Asia. It remains to be seen whether the ‘land of the thunder dragon’
will continue to abide in peace after the transition to democracy and
the incursions of the incipient Maoist movement into this ‘last Shangrila’.