Iowa Democrats are convinced they can flip the Republican-controlled state House on Nov. 6, with a path to victory running through the suburbs around the state’s largest cities.

Republicans wave off that idea. In the final weeks before the election, they're highlighting what they see as the strength of their candidates and a winning strategy for picking up seats.

"I absolutely never take elections for granted, but I feel really good about this year's crop of candidates," said House Speaker Linda Upmeyer, a Clear Lake Republican. "I feel good about the election."

In the Des Moines suburb of Ankeny, Democrat Heather Matson is also feeling good. She's spending her days organizing an Iowa House campaign race against Rep. Kevin Koester, an Ankeny Republican who’s held his district seat for nearly a decade.

In some ways, Matson’s bid for the district is a long shot. She unsuccessfully challenged Koester in 2016, when he won re-election with more than 52 percent of the vote against three candidates.

Matson thinks 2018 will be different, and not just because Democrats could soon have more registered voters in the district.

“It’s more of a feeling that voters are overall frustrated with what’s going on at the Capitol," she said.

Democrats' hope: Enthusiasm

Democrats must secure 10 new seats to overtake the GOP's 59-member majority. Even reducing the GOP lead could also give the minority party more voting leverage on future legislation.

Democrats say their confidence comes from voter registration shifts in areas — some nestled around Des Moines and Cedar Rapids — that have been trending blue in recent elections. They're also hopeful an exodus of Republican incumbents will create more competitive races. They note inroads with voter turnout in recent special election races.

The minority party also insists they’re just more riled up.

They gave Donald Trump some of the credit — or blame — for their energy.

But Democrats also say the Iowa Senate, which Republicans flipped in 2016, has inspired them.

The 2016 election brought a GOP trifecta to the Iowa Legislature — the first in nearly two decades.

Jennifer Konfrst, a second-time Democratic candidate seeking an open district seat in the Windsor Heights area outside of Des Moines, said there's a theme emerging from her door-knocking.

“Some voters I've talked with feel that having one party in control of everything has not been beneficial for the state," she said.

Iowa Democrats have 95 candidates — a mix of incumbents and challengers — running for seats in the 100-member chamber, the most in at least 30 years. Republicans will have 78.

Republicans' plan: Build on majority

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Speaker of the House Linda L. Upmeyer gavels in the 2017 session of the 87th General Assembly of the Iowa House of Representatives Monday, Jan. 9, 2017, at the Iowa Statehouse in Des Moines, Iowa. Upmeyer's family health insurance plan costs the state $19,788 a year. She pays $240 a year in premiums.(Photo11: Rodney White/The Register)

Iowa Republicans, who have controlled the House since 2011, aren't buying the hype. They note Iowa Democrats failed to flip any special election races after the 2016 election.

Upmeyer said GOP-led policies in Iowa on education, health care and tax cuts give the party a winning message on the campaign trail. She added that Koester, the Ankeny Republican, and other suburban GOP lawmakers have long succeeded among voters with shifting party affiliations. Those same legislators have received more votes than national Republicans like Trump and U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst.

“They've worked hard, historically, for their constituents, and I don't think their constituents believe there's any reason to make changes there," Upmeyer said.

Republicans also see the possibility to pad their majority in the House.

That hope runs through districts like the one in Fort Dodge, where longtime Democratic Rep. Helen Miller announced her retirement earlier this year.

Ann Meyer, the Republican candidate and a longtime nurse, believes she's positioned to win against Democrat and physician Megan Srinivas. Meyer has focused her campaign on health care. Srinivas has also made the issue a central topic of her campaign. Meyer estimates she's knocked on thousands of doors, too.

"I feel like I'm in a good position," she said. "I don't feel like I have it wrapped it up, by any means, and I plan to continue to work hard."

National implications

The future control of Iowa's statehouse has received some national attention, a trend around the country that probably won't go away after the 2018 election. Former President Barack Obama has publiclyendorsed a handful of Democratic candidates for state House and Senate in Iowa.

Separately, national Democratic-leaning organizations have announced support for some House and Senate candidates in Iowa. Presidential hopefuls visiting the first-in-the-nation caucus state have also scheduled events with state-level candidates.

It's a pattern that shows the growing political weight of statehouses, said Greg Shufeldt, an assistant professor of political science at Butler University in Indianapolis. He said Iowa is one of 34 states around the country, as of September, where one party has complete a government control. Republicans hold 26 of those capitols.

"With increasing gridlock and growing dissatisfaction with the job that Congress is doing, and the level of polarization that we're seeing in Washington, more and more action is happening to the states," Shufeldt said. "It's increasing the attention that is getting placed on state government and the battle for control of state legislatures."

In the end, statehouse races could come down to how people feel about Trump. The president won Iowa by roughly 9 percentage points in 2016, after the state had voted for Obama twice. Iowa Republicans have often stood behind Trump, even amid a growing trade war that the president has led against China.

LeAnn Hughes, a Republican businesswoman trying to unseat Democratic Rep. Charlie McConkey in a district covering Council Bluffs, says she gets a lot of feedback about the president when she's out door-knocking. It's all positive, she said, with a focus on the growing economy and the federal tax cuts.

"The exciting things that the president is getting done right now is one of the things that I hear all the time," she said. "I think it's absolutely going to come down to what the president has accomplished."

Key races to watch

House District 43: Covers parts of Windsor Heights, Clive and West Des Moines outside of Des Moines. Democrat Jennifer Konfrst, a two-time candidate, is up against Republican Michael Boal and Libertarian Chad Brewbaker. Former President Barack Obama endorsed Konfrst. The seat is being vacated by House Majority Leader Chris Hagenow, a Republican now seeking election in a more heavily Republican district next door. Hagenow insists the move wasn’t politically motivated.

House District 42: Covers parts of West Des Moines and Cumming, outside of Des Moines. Democrat Kristin Sunde is challenging Rep. Peter Cownie, who was elected in 2008. Obama endorsed Sunde.

House District 67: Covers parts of Cedar Rapids, Hiawatha, Marion and Robins, in the Cedar Rapids area. Democrat Eric Gjerde is challenging Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, who was first elected to the seat in 2016. Obama endorsed Gjerde.

House District 38: Covers parts of Ankeny and Saylorville, outside of Des Moines. Heather Matson is challenging Rep. Kevin Koester, who was elected in 2008. It's her second attempt at unseating Koester.

House District 39: Covers parts of Jefferson Township, Johnston, Grimes and Urbandale, north of Des Moines. Democrat Karin Derry is challenging Rep. Jake Highfill, one of the youngest lawmakers in the chamber. He was elected to his seat in 2012.