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Monday, July 7, 2014

By Patricia McBroom There
is no fresh water flowing out of the Delta on this early July day in
summer and hasn't been since May, new data is showing. The only
water surging in and out are the salty tides, which continually
threaten fish and fresh water pumps serving people throughout the
state.

This
is the apparent condition of the Delta, according to state-of-the-art
flow monitors operated by the USGS in four locations near Rio Vista
and Brannon State Park (among others), where fresh water meets salty
and becomes brackish.

Official estimates of outflow, however, calculate that about 4,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) of fresh water is flowing into the Bay –
admittedly low, but not zero, which would have important implications
for managing water in this drought. State-generated outflow estimates
are not based on the above USGS monitors, though it has been obvious
for at least a year that there is a significant difference in dry
years between the two methods of calculating flow.

Small Differences Matter During Drought

In
wetter years, a small disparity such as 3,000-4,000 cfs would not
amount to much. This year is different. Drought is taking a huge
toll in both northern and southern parts of the state. In the
usually wet north, streams and rivers are near dry. The meager
snowpack in the northern Sierras hit its runoff peak in April, not
July, as usual. Ground water tables are sinking, not just in the San
Joaquin Valley, but in some northern counties as well. Farmers
throughout the state with junior rights have been ordered to stop
diverting water for their thirsty crops.

Under
these conditions, sales of water from north to south – normal at
this time of year –become problematic, even when the sellers are
willing. And the condition of the Delta, through which the transfer
waters must flow, is critical.

Suits Aims to Stop Transfers

Hoping
to stop water transfers of 175,000 acre feet, approved by the U.S.
Bureau of Reclamation this spring, two environmental organizations have filed suit in federal court. They requested an expedited hearing to halt the transfers that are scheduled to begin this month. Plaintiffs charge that the Bureau did not do
a proper environmental analysis before approving the transfers, and
the flow monitors maintained by the USGS in the Delta are
poised to play a staring role in the case.

“Their
totals (measuring delta outflow) have been near zero since May,”
said Thomas Cannon, a biostatistician whose work is cited in the lawsuit by the California Sportfishing Protection Alliance and
AquAlliance. I've never seen it this salty up here,” said Cannon
on a recent day in the Delta, waving his arm toward the docks at
Brannon State Park. Based
on his analysis, the suit charges that the dayflow method used by
State and Federal water officials “grossly overestimates actual
Delta outflow” during dry years.

If
the outflow is truly as low as the USGS monitors indicate, it means
that salt water is constantly threatening to move up the estuary and
that a number of fish species, including the iconic longfin and delta
smelt, are at risk of being carried into the export pumps which carry
water to the south of the State.

Accuracy of USGS Monitors Challenged

Difference,
however, does not establish worth. The man in charge of water
operations for the State Water Project in California's Department of
Water Resources, John Lehigh, challenges the idea that USGS monitors
are more accurate than state estimates. “I have seen no evidence that would lead me to conclude that this
estimate of outflow (using USGS monitors) is more accurate than the
one used now.” said Lehigh. He added that if someone thinks he has
a better way to measure outflow, that person should bring the issue
to the attention of the State Water Board. So far, no one has done
that, he said.

Lehigh
also questioned whether the monitors located in the lower Delta,
closer to the Bay, can truly detect outflow in the presence of tidal
flux. Outflow in drought conditions (3,000 cfs, for example) is
miniscule compared to the huge tides (150,000 cfs or more) that
daily wash in and out of the lower delta.

Science panel Validates New Outflow Estimates

Apparently,
USGS scientists have been able to account for the tides, because a report to the Delta Science Program in February demonstrated that
last year's salinity levels in the Delta matched the USGS outflow
meters. Not so the estimates used by the state (called NDOI for Net
Delta Outflow Index), which judged outflow to be more than twice as
high as the USGS monitors in the fall of 2013. “The NDOI estimates appeared to be clearly incorrect,” said the science program's final report (page 15) released in May. The report went on to say that Delta outflow did not meet minimum standards last year and questioned why the better outflow measures are not being used now. For this blog, a member of the expert outflow science panel, retired USGS engineer Pete Smith, calculated the difference between the two measurements for May and June this year (see graph).

By official estimates, fresh water outflow from the Delta is about 4,000 cfs; USGS monitors show that outflow to the
Bay vacillated between minus 6,000 cfs and plus 6,000 but the average for May and June was close to zero.Graph by Pete Smith

The same disparity that was evident in 2013 showed up again this year. NDOI estimates were way higher than outflow as measured by USGS monitors. Whereas California officials believe outflow in the Delta is around 4,000 cfs this summer, the actual figure measured where the Delta meets the Bay is about zero. In light of these findings, the State Water Board will be looking at "possible changes in determining outflow," said SWRCB engineer Rick Satkowski.

Delta Smelt Not in Normal Habitat

So
what does this complicated science all mean?

One
possibility is that famous Delta fish species – the delta smelt and
longfin smelt– could go extinct this year. Smelt follow a salt
line called the X2 because they prefer brackish water. Normally the
smelt are in Suisun Bay by the end of June, but this year they seem
to be still swimming around in the central Delta, near Brannon. In
addition to using possibly inaccurate measures of outflow (thus not
releasing sufficient water from the reservoirs), the State has also
relaxed its salinity standards this summer, bringing the X2 boundary
further upstream. This means the precious few smelt that are left
after years of decline are now directly in line of the pumps that
take water south.

“This
year, the only delta smelt anyone's been able to find are in the
Delta,” said Michael Jackson, an environmental lawyer who has filed
public trust suits against the State in past years, but is not
involved in this one.

Four USGS stations monitor outflow where Delta water enters the Bay;
official outflow monitors are located further upstream toward Sacramento
and where rivers enter the Delta.

“Because
there is no outflow, the only flow will be toward the pumps. Since
transport goes right through the area where the last smelt are, it
seems like we have put a tremendous amount of money and pain into
preserving the fish, only to end up exterminating the species this
year.” Jackson said there is nothing in the Bureau of Reclamation's environmental report on water transfers that recognizes the threat to
delta smelt.

Northern Communities also at Risk

Nor
is there anything that recognizes the danger to communities, farms or
ecology in California's north, said Barbara Vlamis of AquAlliance, one of the
plaintiffs. She said that the Bureau has simply asserted that no
environmental harm will be done to northern areas selling the water,
calling the assessment a “cheap and shoddy version of NEPA”
(National Environmental Policy Act).

“Why
are we selling water out of the north when the area will be rationing
this summer? By percentage of normal precipitation, the north has
been hit harder this year than the south,” said Vlamis.

(Bureau
officials have been making “temporary” one-time transfer
decisions for years, thereby obviating the need for a full-scale
environmental analysis on any one of them. The environmental suit is
challenging this practice.)

Salt Levels Due to Affect Pumps

Another
thing zero flow means is that salt contamination of pumps that bring
water to people in Contra Costa County, as well as southern parts of
the State, will climb throughout the dry summer months. When salt
rises too high, however, the Contra Costa Water District can dilute
it with fresh water from Los Vaqueros Reservoir, so there is no
imminent threat to urban areas. Too much salty water in the southern Delta
could, however, stop the water transfers regardless of the outcome of
the pending legal case.

Who
gets the water – if it goes through – is unknown. Buyers and
sellers are anonymous until contracts are written. But if history
and rumor are any guides, most of the water is destined to reach
Westlands, the wealthy corporate farmers in Kern County, known far
and wide for their political muscle in bending state and Federal
policies to their private needs. And that's a shame. It is bad
enough that these toxic lands, which release selenium into the
waterways, get watered in wet years. It's a travesty when they get
to use water during a drought like this – water that is critically
needed to save the ecosystem and hold the salt at bay for the rest of
us.

About Me

Journalist/anthropologist; author of two books, former science and magazine writer with the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Published "The Third Sex," on women adapting to formerly all-male career roles in the financial districts of New York and San Francisco in 1986 with wide reviews.
As professor, taught courses on women and work at UC Berkeley, Mills College, Rutgers University and Diablo Valley College. Affiliated with the California Studies Association at UC Berkeley.