Updating my US Election Prediction

The website 2016 Presidential Campaign Predictions is doing an admirable job of tracking pundit predictions, and then holding them accountable for (largely) completely missing the mark. The rise of the 24 hour news cycle – and the massive television ‘news hole’ this has created – has definitely rewarded talking heads who have confidence, regardless of their accuracy.

Based on my previous success, when the site’s author called for some visitor predictions I was happy to contribute. You can see me here, among a small group. I’m the only non-American so am representing the rest of the world who, let’s be honest, are wondering exactly WTF is happening over there at the moment.

(That almost turned into a Brexit rant, so moving on.)

I am predicting that Hillary Clinton will win the Presidency, and take the Electoral College vote 369 – 169. (270 are required to win.) It appears my prediction, which is higher than the number of votes President Obama won in 2012, is about average – some are predicting a closer victory, some more of a landslide. No-one on this list is joining Scott Adams and predicting a Trump victory.

Where do I get 369 from?

Electoral College Map. As per convention since 2000, Democrats are Blue and Republicans are Red.

We start with the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ – the states that have voted Democrat in the Presidential elections 6 times in a row, since Hillary’s husband (and ‘First Laddie’ to be) was elected in 1992. There are 242 Electoral Votes ‘in the bag’ there, but if you’re optimistic about their longevity I recommend this article that talks about the ‘Red Wall’ that existed back at the start of 1992 and included those reliably Republican states like California and Vermont.

I then add basically all the swing states, including Florida and Ohio. Call it Ground Game, call it a basket of deplorables, these are all going to Team Clinton. This is the map above, which gives Clinton 343 and Trump 158.

The ‘undecided’ Electoral College Votes in that map are Indiana (11), Arizona (11), Missouri (10), and one of Nebraska’s Congressional Districts (1). Without wanting to be specifically specific (ha!), I’m predicting that Hillary will win two lots of the 11 Votes available here (eg, Arizona + Missouri + NE2) while Trump will manage to win one of the combination.

That takes Donald Trump to 169 Electoral College Votes; and Hillary Clinton wins 369 Electoral College Votes. A margin of 200 is quite a victory – it’s hard to see, even in light of recent polls moving towards Trump a little, how Hillary can lose it from here.