OVERVIEW: On these big days you need to have a key horse or two and stick to it. That key for me today is Summering (15-1) in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. She did nothing wrong in two wins at Del Mar but then she got trapped at Santa Anita and had nowhere to go in the Surfer Girl, finishing third. I think she’s worth a shot. The main question today, like with all of the races on the grass, is the condition of the turf course. It has been raining for the last two days and the course won’t be firm. So whether she takes to the course will be a key as much as anything. Will the Euros have a bigger shot today on the turf? There are two schools of thought: 1) they have run on softer before; 2) they might have been sent to the States to run on firmer ground. We’ll see.

FIFTH RACE (Juvenile Turf Sprint): 1. #11 Queen of Bermuda, 2. #2 Soldier’s Call, 3. #6 Moonlight Romance, 4. #5 Bulletin. LONG SHOT: #4 Stillwater Cove.This race was added by the Breeders’ Cup this year and it certainly came up tough with American and Euros plus males and females entered. There are six fillies in the body of the race. I went with QUEEN OF BERMUDA because jockey Flavien Prat should have some insight to the Euros and she looks like she can track the pace from the outside.

SEVENTH RACE (Juvenile Fillies): 1. #1 Reflect, 2. #10 Bellafina, 3. #2 Serengeti Empress, 4. #4 Restless Rider. LONG SHOT: #3 Vibrance.I wanted to pick BELLAFINA but in looking at the workout times since her last race, I wasn’t impressed. Maybe she has topped out but I hope not for Southern California trainer Simon Callaghan. VIBRANCE is an interesting long shot as she finished second to Bellafina at Santa Anita.

EIGHTH RACE (Juvenile Turf): 1. #6 Henley’s Joy, 2. #5 Line of Duty, 3. #2 Uncle Benny, 4. #14 Anthony Van Dyck. LONG SHOT: #13 Marie’s Diamond.OK, in the interest of honesty, Jeff Bloom, who owns Henley’s Joy, and I are friends, but I really like this 2-year-old. He tries every time and again the condition of the course will be the key. Internet reports are that he looks good and has trained good. LINE OF DUTY seems to be the wise guy horse and ANTHONY VAN DYCK seems to be the top hope from Europe, but he drew the No. 14 post. Ouch.

11TH RACE (Turf Classic, Grade I): 1. Beach Patrol, 2. Arklow, 3. Synchrony, 4. Deauville. LONG SHOT: Camelot Kitten.
Beach Patrol got beat in the last 100 yards of the BC Turf at Del Mar. That race has produced five next out winners from eight starters. Chad Brown will bring back a fit horse.

12TH RACE (Kentucky Derby, Grade I): 1. Mendelssohn, 2. My Boy Jack, 3. Justify, 4. Bolt d’Oro. LONG SHOT: Good Magic.
Does Europe get its first Derby winner? Mendelssohn is a superstar. He cost $3 million at auction and he’s up to $1.9 million earned. I know he’s coming out of the UAE Derby in Dubai on a track that might have had a speed bias, but he destroyed that field in his first try on the dirt. He also comes out of one of the most productive 2-year-old stakes races last year as a he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf which has produced numerous winners.I think he’s the real deal. My pick after the Louisiana Derby would have been My Boy Jack, that move Kent Desormeaux mad was Azeri-like, but trainer Keith Desormeaux felt he had to win the Lexington to have enough points to get into this race so he ran and won. I think Desormeaux will make a similar wide sweeping turn here and it could be a moneymaker if My Boy Jack has something left. Justify and Bolt d’Oro are the best in the West. They will both be forwardly placed early in the race and question is do they want to go this far. As for any other horse, this seems like a deep crop and I wouldn’t talk people off of most any horse. BTW, Good Magic, the BC Juvenile winner at Del Mar, is listed at 12-1 on the morning-line. If he’s that high I might have rethink my wagering.

Preview: Check the track conditions because rain is forecast for Friday and Derby Day on Saturday. Races might come off the turf so check the changes. I handicapped just the stakes races. For the other you are on your own but check out West Coast jockeys who get mounts in other races.

10TH RACE (Edgewood, Grade III): 1. Altea, 2. Rushing Fall, 3. Beyond Blame, 4. Daddy Is a Legend. LONG SHOT: Figarella’s Queen.Rushing Fall (4-5) is a monster and should win but I’ll go with the longer price of the uncoupled Chad Brown entry. Rushing Fall is entered against the boys on Saturday in case it comes down in buckets Friday, but I think she’ll run here.

11TH RACE (Kentucky Oaks, Grade I): 1. Midnight Bisou, 2. Rayya, 3. Classy Act, 4. Monomoy Girl. LONG SHOT: Wonder Gadot.This is a tough race for me because Midnight Bisou (5-2) is owned in part by Oceanside’s Jeff Bloom, one of my best friends in the sport and I guarantee a lot of people in the industry are pulling for Jeff and his group. And with good reason, the 3-year-old filly is two noses away from being undefeated. She lost twice to the Bob Baffert-trained Dream Tree, who is injured and out of this race. Midnight Bisou’s last race was visually impressive as jockey Mike Smith let her loop the field on the turn. She didn’t beat much but it was the way she did it. Look for a similar style in this race and if it rains, she has a victory on a wet/fast track at Santa Anita. Rayya, at 12-1 on the morning-line, is the filly to watch. She just finished second to Mendlessohn, who is one of the favorites in the Derby, in the UAE Derby. She came from off the pace on a speed-favoring track. She is in the Bob Baffert barn and is adding Lasix for the first time, a move Baffert is 30 percent with. Classy Act (15-1) has a second over this track and horses coming from the Fair Grounds have been tearing it up across the country since the end of that meet. Monomoy Girl (2-1) is favored, but that post (No. 14) is horrible.

RACE 12 (Grade I Kentucky Derby): 1. #12 Sonneteer (50-1), 2. #8 Hence (15-1), 3. #18 Gormley (15-1), 4. #19 Practical Joke (20-1). Long shot: #9 Irap (20-1).
The Derby preps this year have been confounding to say the least and what kind of track there will be today just adds another hard factor to handicap. So in a wide open year why not go with a long shot? Sonneteer is still a maiden, but maybe the richest maiden in the country. His two come-from-behind runs at Oaklawn Park just might set him up for today’s 1 1/4-mile race. I know this much Keith Desormeaux knows how to train and his horses love the mud. Jockey Kent Desormeaux will have to give a way better ride than he did last time in the Arkansas Derby. I thought he waited too long. Hence comes out of the Sunland Derby, which has proven to be a productive race. Florent Geroux can ride and I know Steve Asmussen can train. Gormley is the best in the West and Practical Joke maybe a “wise guy” horse.

Preview: There is a rollover of $139,275 in the Single Six wager and there is also rain in the forecast so don’t expect the turf races to stay on the green.

Race 6: #8 Teenertown Prince (6-1)
This 3-year-old drops to his lowest level ever and comes out of a key race that has produced three next out winners. Trainer Forest Kaelin is 29% with horses off a 46- to 90-day layoff and he gets Calvin Borel to ride. The sire Speightstown gets 21% winners on a wet track.

Race 9: #12 Takeittotheedge (8-1)
Our Eyes: This 3-year-old is making his second race start off the layoff and look who he lost to in some of his past races: Cupid, Forevamo and Nyquist. Trainer Dale Romans is 23% with beaten favorites. Faces several he lost to in return and could like the mud as sire Broken Vow is 18% on off-tracks.

Preview: Several riders, including leading jockey Flavien Prat. It could be a big day for jockey Rafael Bejarano, who has missed several weekend days to ride for trainer Bob Baffert.

Well, couldn’t catch a break Friday as in almost all the dirt races we had the lead at the head of the stretch, but the horses went backwards from there. You have to remember the track gets worked on Fridays after mornings workouts. According to several people, the track was playing slow and deep on the card.

This first-time starter from the Jerry Hollendorfer barn has a couple of good works over the track and it isn’t often you get a price like this on The Dorf. The sire Hard Spun is 10% first time out and Hollendorfer is 28% first time out.

Jockey Rafael Bejarano had a choice of four horses in this race and chooses this Peter Eurton-trained filly. She has a couple of good works coming into the race and Eurton is 24% with horses off a 61 to 180-day layoff and he’s 26% with Bejarano.

This filly had all kinds of trouble in her last at Churchill Downs and now trainer Victoria Oliver, who is 2-1-1-0 at the meet, ships her west. Jockey Drayden Van Dyke, who won for Oliver earlier in the meet, gets on.