A number of events in recent weeks cast light on the current intersecting lines of conflict in the Middle East. They reflect a region in flux, in which new bonds are being formed, and old ones torn asunder. … Continue reading →

Jerusalem Post, 14/2 Northern Sinai has long played host to a variety of smuggling networks and jihadi organizations. Since General Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi’s military coup of July 3rd, 2013 in Egypt, however, there has been an exponential increase in attacks … Continue reading →

It should be amusing to Egyptians that while the U.S. aid is a gift, they have to pay for Russian assistance. But then the Egyptians are more suspicious of the Yankees than of Greeks bearing gifts. In addition, since Hamas and Turkey–which support the Muslim Brotherhood and even anti-Egyptian terrorists–have supported revolutionary Islamists against Egypt, the two are in conflict with Egypt.

Since Hamas is at war with both Egypt and Israel, Egypt and Israel have common interests in this conflict. Thus, it may seem Israel’s current situation in the region is worse-off, but there are actually many positive aspects.

Turkey’s situation is unstable too. On the one hand, Turkey has been the main supporter of the rebel, Sunni side in the Syrian civil war. Turkey’s support of the Muslim Brotherhood is considered antagonistic to Saudi Arabia and the military regime in Egypt. It also potentially damages its hopes for business plans with Iran, since support is equally antagonistic to the Shi’a bloc. This has seriously damaged Turkey’s relations with both the Arab and Iranian blocs; Turkey would like to be a bridge among Islamists, but that is making Iran and the Saudi-Egyptian bloc suspicious.

Sunnis and Shi’as are in conflict, and although people may think that the Arab world is obsessed with the Israel-Palestinian conflict, this is not the case. The Arab world (being divided) is less able to do something about the conflict, and it is far less focused on it than it has been over the past few decades.

Saudi Ambassador to Britain Mohammed bin Nawaf bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, who seems to be the Saudi regime’s spokesman, wrote the in the New York Times, “Saudi Arabia Will Go It Alone.”

“Saudi Arabia has been friends with our Western partners for decades…. for almost a century. These are strategic alliances that benefit us both. Recently, these relationships have been tested–principally because of differences over Iran and Syria. We believe that many of the West’s policies on both Iran and Syria risk the stability and security of the Middle East. This is a dangerous gamble, about which we cannot remain silent, and will not stand idly by…. And yet rather than challenging the Syrian and Iranian governments, some of our Western partners have refused to take much-needed action against them.”

The Egypt-Muslim Brotherhood-Hamas conflicts, the Syrian civil war, the conflict between the Shi’a and Sunni blocs (the latter including Saudi Arabia), and Turkish-Arab friction are all signs of this. If the West is willing to keep Asad as dictator of Syria, the Sunni rebels will never accept this, and the Syrian civil war will only be intensified in the coming year.

I hate to say it, but it is almost as if the Obama administration simply wants to keep the supposed “deal” alive until after the 2016 elections, so it can boast a great diplomatic triumph in the Middle East by resolving all problems, only to then let the deal collapse. This could explain why President Obama said there was only a 50-50% chance that the deal would go through. Usually, the president and secretary of state do not talk about the certainty of deals before they are much closer to being completed.

How do we know that the Obama administration Iran deal cannot work? Let me count the ways.

The only countries that have played it right are Canada; Egypt, which is now going to receive American weapons; and Iran itself, which will continue to profit from oil sales while making strategic promises it won’t keep. This is not about Iranian nuclear weapons. It is about the entire region.

Why have Canada, Egypt, and Iran gotten it right? In large part, Canada has ignored the proposed deal, because it doesn’t trust Iran to deliver on any of its promises nor does it believe Iran will change its policy if sanctions end. Iran is not going to change its policy, and Egypt is wisely and cleverly acting in its national interests.

These three countries have simply followed what international diplomacy should be about–the pursuit of national interests, and humanitarian interests when possible. Canada was right, because it was suspicious of radical Islamists, who would push hard to try to get everything and give nothing in return. That it is not a profitable arrangement.

As for Iran, this is precisely about money and defense, not nuclear weapons. Iran wants to get the largest possible amount of money–say 20 billion dollars–but not abandon nuclear weapons completely, knowing Israel cannot attack it.

And Egypt is using its strategic leverage. The military government is in power, and the regime will not allow revolutionary Islamists to attack freely, especially after the last two years’ experience.

For example, revolutionary Islamists do not make concessions. That is not the way they bargain. Islamist Iran will never stop seeking nuclear weapons; it will be patient about it. The real danger to the Iranian regime is economic collapse from sanctions, and the potential gain would be for Iran to achieve its true ambitions–mainly, a Shi’a bloc made of Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq; and the destruction of Israel, which won’t work.

Egypt played it tough and will probably be the only Arab state that has gained anything. Nevertheless, the Egyptians have so lost confidence with the United States that they just signed a 2 million dollar agreement to buy weapons from Russia. This takes the world back almost 60 years, to 1955, when Egypt was a Soviet client and was buying all its arms from the Soviet Union. Egypt then managed to obtain Russian arms deals for money and yet a U.S. arms deal for free!

Why has Canada gained? Because when the arms deal with Iran collapses, Canada will not be holding the bag.

These are not the only problems with the deal. For example, look at the Israel-Palestinian Authority question. They cannot make a deal without Gaza’s involvement. And yet nobody–including the United States and Russia–is going to force Gaza to be included in the peace agreement.

In fact, even the PA will not recognize Israel as a Jewish State, its only precondition.

In an interview, Palestinian leader Farouq Qaddoumi commented:

“… we were enthusiastic supporters of Germany.”

“This was common among the Palestinians, especially since our enemy was Zionism, and we saw that Zionism was hostile to Germany, and vice versa.”

Qaddoumi is honest, at least in mentioning this fact, especially to a news station and when WWII is still referred to as a great patriotic war. At the same time, a main representative of the Muslim Brotherhood in Europe denies that it too was a partner in this alliance, while Iran’s leader refers to Israel as “Nazi.”

I can imagine that the West could agree to Asad staying on in Syria, but I could never agree that the PA will recognize Israel as a Jewish State. It would never do that, even if it were to get a state immediately, because its goal is in fact a state from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean.

Iran wants to lead a Shi’a bloc consisting of Hizballah, Syria, and–if possible–Iraq. The West supposedly thinks that the deal will be to retain Asad. Yet Syrian rebels, supported by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, view this as a betrayal. They will not make a deal that officially keeps Asad in power in Syria.

Also, Iran is now backing the Sunni Hamas, which the Egyptians are suspicious of and view as a threat. Former Muslim Brother hood Muhammad Morsi has just been indicted for getting support from Hamas, Hizballah, Iran.

Meanwhile, Turkey thinks it will be able to play up to Iran because of economic deals between the two. How will Iran be challenged when Turkey is running Syria’s civil war against the Iranian bloc?

Even according to U.S. intelligence (stated foreign policy), Iranian commandos just raided an Iraqi compound in Ashraf that was housing an Iranian dissident group, the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK), kidnapping seven members and killing over fifty.

Does Iran think it can include armed anti-Iranian (Kurdish) dissidents (the PKK) and Syrian dissidents in its bloc? That might put a crimp on billions of dollars in bilateral trade. By the way, the United States had already supposedly promised Iraq that the MEK would be protected, another source of accusations of “cowboy” behavior.

A U.S. official commenting on the Ashraf attack noted, “Iraqi soldiers didn’t get in the way of what was happening at Ashraf.”

I hate to say it, but it is almost as if the Obama administration just wants to keep the supposed “deal” alive until after the 2014 elections. It wants to be able to say, “Do you see what a great diplomatic triumph we achieved in the Middle East, resolving all problems?” only then to let the deal collapse. This is of course the reason President Obama said there is only a 50-50 chance with the Iran deal. Usually, the president and secretary of state do not talk about the certainty of deals before they are much closer to being completed.

This column is an attempt to provide a running narrative of the Middle East. It will tell the news behind the news, including what the mainstream media has missed, especially because of its lack of knowledge of history.

Obama Says Iran-Israel Nuke Deal Is Only a 50/50 Chance

It is amazing that even though this is a low-probability, it has been talked about for a year. It has been the speculative centerpiece of the Obama administration (like its domestic centerpiece the Obamacare website. It is not just that the talk about this deal causes disruption in all foreign policy, but also that if it isn’t realized the administration will look like fools.

Second, who has been an ally 75 years and who has been an agent of state terrorism?! Vice President Joe Biden said, “The U.S. should make sure the Iranians don’t violate the agreement and build nuclear weapons.” Why is the United States going to do something like bombing them?

By the way, does anyone know how much money the cutting of sanctions is going to yield Iran? According to sources, it is at least 20 billion dollars. How many billion pieces of silver is the West going to get for possibly letting Iran get nuclear weapons?

Pakistan/Afghanistan

Hagel Visits Pakistan

U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel visited Pakistan last week, with Afghanistan’s stalled peace process the main agenda item–given the strained relations between Washington and Islamabad.

In Washington, Obama had previously told Karzai to make friends with the Taliban. Why if you want to make friends do you keep fighting them? Karzai said openly that he was angry; he would rather push the United States out of Afghanistan–than end with his head put up on a pole. No wonder Karzai says he no longer trusts the United States.

Islamic Parties in Pakistan Are Blocking NATO Supplies

If you think that the U.S. supports “moderate” Islamists, look again. In fact, anyone who wants to know can read in the newspaper that support for Islamism is like Gresham’s law. In other words, as a coinage “bad Islamism drives out relatively moderate Islamism.”

Tarek Heggy said, “Egypt now needs to reexamine its relations with the U.S. …Nations with honor do not accept aid that is provided in such a manner… this aid benefits the U.S. much more than it benefits Egypt.”

He isn’t exaggerating. He views the United States as acting like “cowboys.” First the U.S. supported Gamal Nasser, then Sadat, then Mubarak, then the Muslim Brotherhood–giving no perception or care of Egyptian interests. Now the United States doesn’t care if the military regime runs the country.

Supposedly, Abbas rejected any Israeli presence and offered a 10-year American presence, and it seems that Kerry agreed. This is absolutely ludicrous. This shows how easily the U.S. concedes on Israel’s strategic presence.

Does anyone think that the Palestinian Authority is going to hold the territory against daily attacks from Hamas and Fatah radicals? Do they believe that they are going to cede one inch of this territory? Do you believe that they’re going to collaborate secretly on attacks? Do you believe that they are not going to be overthrown before that from attacks?

The PA says there will be no agreement with Israel without more prisoner releases. Are we going to see Kerry demand this? Is the United States going to guarantee, at the possible cost of war, Palestinian stability? Has anyone in the White House studied Middle East history? Or is Israel going to have to defend against cross-border attacks, because–believe it or not–there are going to be attempts and successes.

Who’s Leading the Syrian Rebels?

Not long ago, Secretary of State John Kerry said “moderates” were leaders of the Syrian rebellion. Now, it is admitted that the Islamist fighters are actually stealing warehouses on the Turkish-Syrian border. The Free Syrian Army’s leadership has been taken over. This “moderate” force has no connection. The power is with the Islamic front, not the Free Syrian army.

In the latest development, the U.S. military officers had to admit that the leaders of the Free Syrian army had to flee back into Turkey.

You can imagine why the Syrian Rebel Islamists don’t like or trust the “moderates.” These moderates are officers who defected from the Syrian army. While they may be professional military men, they are former men of Asad. You see, the U.S. and Britain are supporting the last people that are really moderate or may be susceptible to the Islamists. These are people from a regime that was killing them and fighting them for years.

Jerusalem Post, 26/10: A suicide bombing this week at Egyptian Military Intelligence headquarters in the city of Ismailiya has been claimed by Ansar Beit al Maqdis. This organization is a Salafi Jihadi group with links to organizations of a similar … Continue reading →

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