No war on Lebanon or Iran or Hezbollah but preliminary moves towards a Saudi-Israeli relationship

“It is not a question of war against Hezbollah, Iran or Lebanon, it is a preliminary preparation for an overt Saudi Arabia and Israel relationship”. This is what a decision maker related to the Israeli-Arab-Iran struggle said.

In Yemen, Hezbollah was never present with large numbers: a few dozen advisors were in the country to offer training and shared their long experience gathered during many years of war against Israel and in Syria. Those who formed the Hezbollah special forces were present in Yemen to teach Zaydi Houthi how to defend themselves against the US led coalition and the Saudi continuous aggression. It is the duty of Muslims to defend those oppressed (Mustad’afeen) in the same way that the Imam Khomeini supported the Lebanese during the 1982 Israeli invasion. Iran’s religious duty dictated its obligation to support Iraq against the occupation forces in 2003 and supported the Afghan resistance as well. “Today Yemeni are being exterminated and the world is watching, impotent and numb, allowing Saudi Arabia to destroy the country and kill.”

However, today there is less need for Hezbollah expertise in Yemen. The resistance has acquireded enough experience and training, fighting in a different environment than Lebanon, Syria or Iraq. There is no need for Hezbollah to stay in Yemen or in Iraq where the “Islamic State” group (ISIS) has been defeated and expelled from every Iraqi city. Today the Iraqis have enough men, advance equipment and huge experience to stand against any danger. Therefore there is no need any more for Iran or Hezbollah or even for the US forces to remain in Mesopotamia.

As for Syria, the source believes that “Hezbollah is in the Levant by the request of the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to fight rejectionist Takfiri, and terrorism. With the city of Albu Kamal under Syria Army control, ISIS has lost the last city in Syria though it still exists east of the Euphrates, in al-Badiya (Syrian Steppe) and in a few pockets on the Syrian southern borders. There are still thousands of al-Qaeda in Idlib and around al-Hajar al-Aswad and the south of Syria. Therefore, it is only by direct request from the Syrian President that Hezbollah can stay or leave the country. No matter how loud the US, the Israelis and the Arabs scream, Hezbollah’s presence in Syria is linked to the Syrian government and to no one else”.

For Lebanon, the Prime Minister Saad Hariri has been liberated from his Saudi Arabia golden jail and is expected to return to Lebanon in the coming hours. According to the source “there is no Arab war against Iran in the region or an Israeli war against Lebanon. That doesn’t mean Hezbollah can go home and cease any preparation for a possible future war.

The return of Hariri is obviously linked to a Saudi agenda where he will ask Hezbollah to pull out of Syria, Yemen and Iraq and put down its weapons. It should be noted that Hezbollah supported Hariri’s freedom because he was illegally detained by Saudi Arabia and because he is the Prime Minister of Lebanon. Saudi Arabia cannot be allowed to deal with the Lebanon as if it were a Saudi province. And for Hariri it is illusory to believe he is returning to Lebanon as a hero to dictate Saudi policy, that he can implement Saudi Arabia’s wishes, and that he can achieve what the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia failed to obtain. If indeed he insists on the Saudi agenda, he can return home to Saudi Arabia this time as a defeated former Prime Minister. Saudi Arabia’s vision of the Middle East simply doesn’t apply to the multi-ethnicity and conviviality in Lebanon between all religions and the various political groups and their representations”.

It is therefore not a question of Iran or the weapon reserves of Hezbollah or its regional military intervention. The war in Syria was won by the “Axis of the Resistance” and the other side (US, EU, Qatar, Jordan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia) has failed to change the regime, to destroy the multi-ethnic culture in Syria, and to tie the hands of the extremists. It is simply a question of Saudi Arabia preparing a wider, overt relationship with Israel.

Saudi Arabia is acting as if it needs this scenario to cover up its future relationship with Israel. Every day, we see Saudi academics, writers and even officials using the excuse “fighting Iran, the common enemy” to justify the forthcoming relationship with Israel In point of fact Israeli public opinion is ready to welcome Saudi Arabia, and vice versa.

This new Saudi project is clear and won’t fool the Arab in the street. The Arab countries have promised to establish an official relationship with Israel in exchange for the heads of Hezbollah and Iran on a plate. In return the US and Israel promised to engage positively with the Israeli-Arab conflict.

This is no solution for the Israeli-Arab conflict, and Trump can certainly not fulfil his promises. Israel won’t give up to the Arabs what it is getting for free (the relationship with the Gulf countries). Those running to establish ties with Tel Aviv are coming of their own free will in order to use Israel as a bridge to the US. On the other hand, even the new US-Saudi-Israel alliance will be unable to deliver those heads of Iran and Hezbollah without engulfing the region in a global war. Are these countries ready for such a war where the costs outweigh the benefits?

Published by Elijah J Magnier

Veteran War Zone Correspondent and Senior Political Risk Analyst with over 35 years' experience covering the Middle East and acquiring in-depth experience, robust contacts and political knowledge in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan and Syria. Specialised in terrorism and counter-terrorism, intelligence, political assessments, strategic planning and thorough insight in political networks in the region.
Covered on the ground the Israeli invasion to Lebanon (1st war 1982), the Iraq-Iran war, the Lebanese civil war, the Gulf war (1991), the war in the former Yugoslavia (1992-1996), the US invasion to Iraq (2003 to date), the second war in Lebanon (2006), the war in Libya and Syria (2011 to date). Lived for many years in Lebanon, Bosnia, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria.
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