Sugar trend remains down on Brazil crop expectations

General Comments: Futures closed lower after failing to take out the highs of the last couple of days. There is not much new to talk about here so far this week. Futures trends remain down overall and price action has been weak. Many expect production to be higher overall in Brazil due to a record Sugarcane production and better weather now, and countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. The Indian monsoon is good so far this season and this should help with Sugarcane production in the country. Northern areas are in good shape, but southern areas might be too hot and dry and some stress to the Sugarcane is possible in the short term. In addition, industry sources there told wire services this week that planted area is down by about 5% and that overall production would be lower even with very good weather. Less production of Sugar beets is reported from Russia and Ukraine as farmers there elected top plant more grains. Traders will keep an eye on Ethanol demand and see if the production of Ethanol continues to siphon Sugar from the market.

Overnight News: Brazil should be mostly dry and warm this week, but could see colder and wetter weather this weekend. UNICA said that center south Brazil Sugar production is about unchanged from last year. It said that mills favor ethanol production and that the Sugar/Ethanol mix could be 42%/58% this year.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1580 October. Support is at 1570, 1540, and 1510 October, and resistance is at 1620, 1630, and 1650 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 448.00 October. Support is at 457.00, 454.00, and 451.00 October, and resistance is at 465.00, 466.00, and 470.00 October.

General Comments: Futures moved lower as reports of rain were Heard from Texas. Temperatures are much cooler in Texas and rain was reported in central and western parts of the state, including key Cotton producing areas. The rains there are called very beneficial. Conditions in Alabama, Mississippi, and Missouri are below average now, but will see warm temperatures and some showers this week, with most of the precipitation in eastern and southern areas. It is possible that futures can continue to work lower as demand has turned soft and as the weather is getting better. Weather for Cotton appears good in India, Pakistan, and China.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will see some showers today and drier weather later this week and this weekend. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The USDA spot price is now 80.37 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.540 million bales, from 0.540 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 83.00 October . Support is at 84.00, 83.10, and 82.80 October, with resistance of 86.00, 86.50, and 87.00 October.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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