This stock has been one of the most debated stock in recent times. And I know it was cursed, many a year ago, as a stock which has duped many investors of their hard earned money. Yes, We are talking of Teledata Informatics. I had been getting emails from the readers on the prospects of this stock given its rise from Rs. 8 to Rs. 80 and it made me write this post for the benefit of the readers. Let's see what is going on with the company and its stock price and what are the future prospects !

Teledata on Investment Guru BlogJuly 13,2005 This was the day on which I wrote a post on Teledata informatics stating that the stock is a dark horse and should be kept on watchlist. And I know this post drew large number of comments both positive as well as negative from the readers. The stock was then trading at Rs 28 down from its high of Rs. 60. Things changed from bad to worse from then and the stock price plummeted to Rs. 8. However, the situation took a turn and the stock never looked back ! So what's behind the transformation of this stock or will it turn out to be another illusion ? Let's find out.

About TeledataTeledata Informatics Ltd is a global software solutions company providing enterprise-wide solutions for the Marine, Education, Utility and Telecom sectors. With over 2600 employees globally, Teledata is the only company in Asia to offer comprehensive Marine software solutions. The company has a vision to position itslef as a leading technology solutions provider and be among the top 20 global IT companies by 2010.

The StewardThe Chairman Gp. Capt. K. Balasubramanian IAF (Retd.) is a Graduate Mechanical Engineer, M.Sc (Engineering Cranfield -U.K), and an M.B.A from Madurai Kamraj University. He joined the Indian Air Force in the year 1962 as Pilot officer and rose to the rank of Group Captain before his retirement in 1994.He is currently Chairman of the company. He plays a key role in defining the company strategy and in continuously using technology and innovation to maintain its leadership of the industry.

Transformation through Acquisitions

Teledata has been on an aggressive acquisition spree during the last Fiscal year and has acquired as many as 12 companies. In October 2005 the company acquired Picnic Marine, a thailand based company for US$ 27 Mllion.

In Jan., 2006 the company has taken over the majority stake in Hyper Sascom Ltd incorporated in the state of Bihar. Hyper Sascom Limited, Patna is having an agreement with District Computer Centre Society, Patna to provide Computer Education for all students studying in all Rajkiya, Rajkiyakrit, Minorities and other Govt. and Govt. aided high / middle schools of Patna Dist aggregating to 205 Schools. The Student Strength of the school is approx 1.80 lakhs .

In Feb 2006, te company had taken over 60% in SBC Data Systems Ltd, Ireland through its subsidiary. SBC Data Systems Ltd. provides solutions to the transportation and logistics industry. SBC Data Systems Ltd, Ireland is a company having a turnover of USD 7 Million with a profit margin of 30% . The per employee contribution to the company’s profitability is more than the average industry standards.

In March 2006, Teledata had acquired 100% stake in Alpha Soft Services Corporation, USA through its subsidiary. Alpha soft is a 28 Million US $ Company providing high quality IT services in the areas of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Data Warehousing, E-Business and related technologies. Vendor specific technologies include Oracle, PeopleSoft, BEA, IBM, ATG, Informatica, Business Objects, Cognos and Microsoft. The tremendous growth of AlphaSoft has earned it a place on the prestigious Inc. 500, ranking #131 in its first year of eligibility. AlphaSoft also ranked #16 in the San Francisco Business Times’ Top 150 Fastest Growing Private Companies list.

In April,2006 the company acquired 80% in I-Max Networks Limited, London through its subsidiary. I-Max Networks Ltd is a provider of telecommunication carrier services, equipment distributor and an integrated solution provider. The company specializes in IP telephony - VoIP, TDM & Wireless communication. The core business is based on wholesale and retail of International voice traffic and aggregating traffic for Incumbent Local Operators. Their subsidiary Voicetec Systems Ltd caters to the wholesale business. This was a step towards strengthening its presence in the communication sector.

In January 2007, it acquired 100% stake in Soltius Pte Ltd, Singapore through its wholly owned subsidiary, Bitech International LLC, Dubai. Headquartered in Singapore, Soltius is a Global IT solutions & Services Company that offers expertise in areas of business solutions and services. With over 800 professionals on board worldwide Soltius focuses on SAP projects and consultancy services. The company’s industry-specific groups generate strategies rooted in a deep understanding of the practices and processes that help identify appropriate business solutions and services for various industries.

In January 2007, Teledata Informatics Ltd had invested USD105 million to acquire majority stake in Singapore headquartered IT distribution major and PC maker - eSys Technologies Pte Ltd. The investment will enable Teledata capitalize on the synergy between Teledata and eSys which would help accelerate the business levels with tremendous prospect.

So one can see that Teledata's business model has been of growth through acquisition. Investment Guru believes that integration of all these business with the business model of the company will be the major factor for Teledata's future growth. After making these smart acquisition the uphill task is to integrate them and make the best use of the synergies available.

Teledata -eSys to set up PC Manufacturing unit in Himachal Pradesh

eSys Technologies is setting up a PC manufacturing unit in Baddi, Himachal Pradesh to be operational in 2007. The installed capacity of the plant would be 1,200,000 units per annum and the total capital investment is expected be around Rs 250 crores.

Impressive growth in Topline and Bottomline

For the Fourth Quarter ending March 2007, the company has posted revenues of Rs. 1572.81 Cr. against Rs. 453.07 Cr. for the respective quarter last year recording a jump of 247%. Net Profit for the above period of Rs. 207.13 Cr. has witnessed a surge of 416% compared to the same quarter last year.

For the Year Ended March 2007, the company posted a Topline of Rs. 3802 Crores and a Net profit of 489 Crores. This shows a sproadic increase in both tipline and bottom line in the last leg of the year.

For the quarter ended March 07, the EPS stood at Rs. 10.53 while the Full Year EPS for 2006-07 stood at Rs. 27.25 If we evaulate the company current stock price on its EPS, Teledata is currently qouting at roughly 3 P/E.

The PE levels makes a case of value buying but this is not new phenomenon for the company. The company's stock has been a laggard for a long time and this is nothing new. What is new is the developments on the acquisition front which have provided the much needed visibility to the company and push to its topline. No doubt the stock is qouting at very attractive levels given the growth trajectory....so what is holding up the stock to attin PE levels comparable to other Good IT stocks ?

Shareholding Pattern- Cause of Concern

Yes, this is the main bone of contention for a shareholder of the company. A general question which arises is that if the company is on a fast growth track and the management sounds so cpnfident of the future growth prospects of the company, why are the promoters holding such a small pie in the company ? Yes, we can see that there is some shift from Mar-06 when the promoter holding was just 4.49 % and now the promoter holding stands at 16.09 %. This is still a low promoter holding for such a fast growing company and raises doubts over the promoters intention. A obvious question that arises is " Are the promoter jacking up the prices through manipulation for their vested interest?" I would not comment on this as I do not have clarity on what is going in promoter's mind. But for sure this is one of my biggest concern for the stock.

Stock Price Movementand Volumes

Though the company started its acquisition spree long back sine October 2005 and most of the acquisitions happened in Year 2006 , the stock price picked up in real terms only after acquisition of Soltius and beame more pronounced with acquisition of Esys. The stock price didn't looked back since then and the stock has undergone series of Upper circuits. The current circuit limit for the stock is 5% and the stock continues to hit the same. Another interesting thing to note is that the stock price rise has come with huge volumes which suggests that there has been a wide circulation of the stock among public holdings as well as active trading is taking place in the stock.

Teledata - Buy , Hold or Sell ?

Well, that's a tough call given the mixed outlook on the company fundamentals. Though the growth delivered by the company specially in the later half of Year 2006-07 is outstanding and augers well for the stock price, the promoter holding which is still at lower levels has left the investors worried about their intentions.

The story which could be percieved as a transformation or turnaround has got grey spots with uncertaintly over promoter's intentions. I beleive the promoter should come up on some forum to reveal their strategy and reasons behind a lower stake in the company.

Investment guru is of the view that the stock at current levels has still the steam left but it offer a High risk , High return proposition. The short term target for the stock is Rs 100 ( 10 days timeframe) and Investors who are invested should keep a close watch on the volumes. Any reversal in the uptrend should be used as a caution and more than 10% fall should be ideal for taking a stoploss position. For long term perspective we would need to watch how the company delivers going forward and how well does the mangement demonstrates its confidence in the business model of the company. Definitely a dark horse for Long term Investors !

Infosys sends positive wibes, posts 57% YOY rise in Profits The infosys results which were awaited very anxiously by the markets came out to be a morale booster for the markets. Though the results had not thrown any extraordinary surprise, the markets took comfort in the fact that there was no bad news either.

The company reported net profit of Rs 1,144 crore in the fourth quarter versus Rs 983 crore in the previous year, a growth of 16.38%. The net profit included Rs 124 crore of reversal of tax provision.Its revenues increased by 3.2% to Rs 3,772 crore from Rs 3,655 crore, QoQ.

The company has added 34 new clients in Q4 compared to 43 new clients in Q3 and 5992 employees versus 3282 employees in Q4.

As per Indian GAAP, Infosys has predicted an EPS of Rs 80.29 to Rs 81.58 for FY 2008, a growth of 20 - 22%, compared to an EPS of Rs 66.86 in FY 2007. The company had forecast 22.6 - 24.6% growth in revenue for FY 2008, between Rs 17038 crore and Rs 17308 crore. Infosys has considered the rupee-dollar conversion rate at 43.10.

The Board of Directors recommended a final dividend of Rs. 6.50 per share (130% on par value of Rs. 5 per share) for fiscal 2007

Chances of Good listing for Orbit look bleakOrbit Corporation is listing tomorrow on BSE. The company offered 91 Lac shares at Rs. 117 per share with one detachable equity warrant per equity share. The issue was subscribed 3.8 times. The company is in the business of redeveloping existing properties in Mumbai. The shares were offered at a PE of 25. Given the current listing trend for lesser known companies and construction stocks in particular, the listing is not expected to be a good one . Investment Guru expects the stock to list in the range of 115-125 and then settle in the range of 100-115.

ICRA Ltd. to list with fireworks on 13th April,2007The story here is different. ICRA Ltd offered 25.81 Lac shares at Rs. 330 per share. The issue got overwhelming response and was subscribed 73 times with retail portion subscribed by 53 times. You can read more about the company in my earlier post. The stock was priced attractively as compared to its listed peer Crisil and hence the stock is expected to see a good listing. Investment Guru expects the stock to list in the range of Rs. 480 - 520 and then settle in the range of 450-480. Though the stock is a good candidate for long term hold, Investors can opt to book partial listing gains at a price above Rs. 500. Party time for all those who got allotment !
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The Indian markets ended flat yesterday with a positive bias at the end of the session. The current flavour of the markets is the earning season which is going to be kicked off in a major way from Friday with tech bell weather Infosys declaring its results. The coming week would be driven mainly by the results.

Looking Beyond ResultsYes, more than the results, investors are awaiting what Infosys has to say for its outlook on the IT business and how does it moves its guidance numbers for the next year. Investors, of late, have been on the sidelines with news of appreciating rupee against dollar and slow down in US economy creating unceratinty on the prospects of IT companies. Well the market leader is expected to clear the fog and bring clearity on the impact of the above two factors on the performance of IT companies.

Asian markets on a firm groundAsian markets continued to gain backed by positive clues from the US markets and news that Bank of Japan is in no hurry to raise interest rates.Japan's Nikkei was up 14.33 points while Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.42% or 86.01 points.South Korea's Seoul Composite gained 1.12%,Taiwan surged 0.49% and Singapore's Straits Times advanced 0.04%.

Stocks in NewsJet gets "Sahara"Jet Airways is understood to have negotiated a takeover of Air Sahara after hanging it for around nine months. The imapct of the deal would be cleared once the parties finally declare the deal, however, the deal would defintely provide jet with the much needed economies of scale which has become a deciding factor in the competitive aviation sector. Investment guru blog will bring out a post on the post deal scenario soon.