Boeing 787 faces new risk: limits on extended range-sources

March 26, 2013|Reuters

By Andrea Shalal-Esa and Mari Saito

WASHINGTON/TOKYO, March 26 (Reuters) - As Boeing works toregain permission for its 787 Dreamliner to resume flights, thecompany faces what could be a costly new challenge: a temporaryban on some of the long-distance, trans-ocean journeys that thejet was intended to fly.

Aviation experts and government officials say the FederalAviation Administration may shorten the permitted flying time ofthe 787 on certain routes when it approves a revamped batterysystem. The plane was grounded worldwide two months ago afterlithium-ion batteries overheated on two separate aircraft.

Losing extended operations, or ETOPS, would deal a blow toBoeing and its airline customers by limiting use of thefuel-saving jet, designed to lower costs on long-distance routesthat don't require the capacity of the larger Boeing 777. Such aloss could even lead to cancellation of some routes.

"If the FAA approves (only) over-land operations it would bea very damaging blow to the 787 program," said Scott Hamilton,an aviation analyst with Leeham Co in Seattle.

"Depending on how long that restriction remains in place, itwould completely undermine the business case for the airplane,which was to be able to do these long, thin intercontinentalroutes" over water, he said.

Grounding the 787 already has cost Boeing an estimated $450million in lost income and compensation payments to airlines.Further restrictions on the 787's range could send the airlines'claims - and Boeing's costs - higher.

Until it was grounded on Jan. 16, the 787 was permitted tofly routes that ranged as much as three hours away from anairport. Boeing has asked the FAA to extend that range to 5-1/2hours. That change would enable airlines to fly many more routesacross remote areas such as the North Pole.

Now the jet faces the potential temporary loss of its ETOPSapproval or a roll-back to two hours, according to governmentofficials and aviation experts.

"It is completely within expectations for FAA to limit ETOPSfor the 787," one regulatory source in Japan told Reuters. Hesaid that reducing the range to two hours would force Japaneseairlines to fly more circuitous routes, burning up more fuel andcutting efficiency.

A former senior U.S. government official said there was "adistinct possibility" that Boeing could win the battle over FAAflight certification for the battery only to lose permission forextended operations - at least temporarily.

An FAA spokesperson said it was too early to discuss ETOPSapproval since Boeing's battery fix was still being tested.

"It's really premature to talk about what ETOPScertification we would give them right now," said thespokesperson. "We'll be in a better position to answer questionslike that after we get through all this battery testing."

Boeing referred questions to the FAA. During a recent newsconference in Japan, Boeing executives said there had not beenany conversations with regulators about extended rangeoperations. They said the proposed certification plan did notforesee further limitations once the plane was allowed to resumeflight operations.

The issue is heating up as Boeing nears the end of testingthe new battery system, designed to prevent the meltdowns thatoccurred in January. Boeing executives say the FAA could approvethe new battery system within weeks. The first flight test ofthe system took place Monday, and a second, final test flight isexpected in coming days, Boeing spokesman Marc Birtel said.

Analysts and industry executives say any decision to limitthe flying time of the new aircraft would have seriousconsequences.

The change would not rule out all international routes, butsome specific routes, such as Japan Airlines Co's Tokyo-to-Boston flight, might have to be canceled, said theJapanese regulatory source.

The 787's biggest customers so far include All NipponAirways and Japan Airlines, which fly extendedroutes to the United States and Europe, and Qatar Airways. Inthe U.S., United Airlines is the only carrier to havetaken delivery of 787s. The airlines declined requests forcomment on how loss of ETOPS could affect operations.

A step-by-step return to full, extended flight would giveregulators more time to study the effectiveness of Boeing'sbattery fix, and could help the Obama administration prove thatit was making good on Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood'spromise to ensure the plane was "1,000-percent" safe, someexperts said.

It would also address concerns voiced by Japanese aviationregulatory authorities in recent weeks.

Nor is it without precedent. Until the late 1980s, the FAArequired airlines to fly a certain number of hours over landbefore it approved extended-range operations over water orremote areas. It started granting permission for those flightsin tandem with flight certification when engine safety improved.

But the highly electrical nature of the 787 has raised newquestions, said another former U.S. official, noting that theimportance of the lithium-ion batteries for the plane'soperation made it a bigger risk factor than past batteries.

"In the past, if you lost a battery, or a batterymalfunctioned, it wasn't that big of a deal," said that formerU.S. official.

"But if Boeing's battery is needed to start the engine - andthat battery is susceptible to fire - isn't that a turn backcondition? Isn't that something you have to go land at anairport to address? That's the question."