Saturday, 28 December 2013

Britain of the year

George Osborne Named 'Briton Of The Year' By The Times Newspaper

Huffington Post almost faints in astonishment as it reports that 'Boy' George isBritain of 2013for finally getting around to doing his job. That the Guardian chose their Edward Snowden was no surprise. I expect him to have Sponsored by the Guardian advertised on all his clothing.

But George? Man of 2013?

If I'd been asked I'd have said Denis McShane would have been more likely.

George Osborne has been named "Briton of the Year" for setting "the
terms of political debate" with his austerity agenda and being "partly
vindicated" by the onset of economic growth, says the Huffpuff,using all their own air quotes of disbelief.

And the Huffpo is right to point that out. When the Times has to use justifications such as 'partly' and 'setting the terms of the debate' its clear a bit of shoehorning was needed to make the man fit the award. After all you could conceivably say the same about Miliband.

He certainly set the terms of the political debate for 3 months. And he can claim to have been partly vindicated on pretty much anything. Let's say 'foodbank poverty'.

And against, say, Andy Murray who ended the 77 years of Wimbledon hurt or One Direction's Harry Styles, who has probably done as much for the economy as the Chancellor, was Osborne a good choice?

well, they can't give it to Cameron (what has he done apart from not have the coalition fall apart) the economy is on the up and compared to Holland / Merkel Osborne shines (and he does make the nicest wallpaper) it reminds me that economies perform despite those in power, not because of them.

Hilarious reports suggest that Britain is going to catch up with Germany economically, despite having almost no manufacturing industry, comically bad schools and a collapsing infrastructure.I can only assume that we will do this by overtaking the Germans in the production of fairy tales.Theirs are called things like Hansel And Gretel. Ours are called ‘official statistics’, an amazing fantasy world in which crime is down, school standards are up, there is almost no inflation and George Osborne is an economic genius.

At the present time the UK is growing much faster than Germany. Germany is being dragged down by its suppport of the rest of the EU and a high currency. Also its population is in decline.

The UK is making good use of its low currency to grow rapidly, also its population is still growing at quite a lick and is likely to grow faster as an the only improving economy in the EU sucks in more of the EUs unemployed.

As foreigners start to buy into the UKs relative success the currency will gradually rise against the Euro.

All they have done is extrapolate out the curves from where we are today.

The question is will it actually be "good" growth?

I would say no. Nominal GDP might be good but GDP per capita not so good. We might still have relatively high unemployment as we suck in the EU's unemployed. We will probably have to cut back on some benefits and our own people will suffer. Most of all the population will have risen towards 80million with true born Brits making up less than half of the population and with our cities having the kinds of traffic problems you would find in Moscow and Istanbul and no-end of pressure on services that cannot expeand to meet the increased demand because all the immigrants come in at the bottom of the wage scale and won't pay any tax.

In short, if this tiny island does EVER grow to have a GDP as big as Germany it will be a disaster.

As Ryan says, making the GDP total overtake Germany is not hard given (a) unrestricted immigration, to the point where the descendants of the pre-1939 population become a minority in England, and (b) a minor change in the relative value of the pound/Euro.

But is a future in a crowded, expensive, low-wage country with no shared culture or history really something to look forward to?

And, something that is rarely mentioned, there is a large non-monetary reward for being part of an enterprise that makes things --- a pride in their work available to the employees of the German engineering firms, that no amount of burger flipping can ever produce.