Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA – Daily Update 17 January 2018 06:00 UTC

The African Risk Capacity monitors tropical cyclone activity in the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) and relies on Africa RiskView, a disaster risk modelling platform that uses satellite-based and other geo-information to forecast wind speed and storm surge height and estimate population affected and economic loss. These modelled losses are the underlying basis of the insurance policies issued by the ARC Insurance Company Limited, the financial affiliate of the ARC Agency, which pools risk across the continent.

Name

Event Number

Naming Date

Current Position

Current Wind Speed

BERGUITTA

06

13/01/18

–18.3S 59.8E

120 km/h

Forecasts

Population Affected

The following maps shows the actual and forecast (dotted line) cyclone track, as well as the forecast peak wind speed at the time of reporting (see map title):

The following map shows the forecast peak surge depth at the time of reporting:

NB: It is important to note that these maps are based on forecasts, which will be updated as soon as the next update on the cyclone track is released.

Based on the forecasts presented under the previous tabs, Africa RiskView calculates the potential number of people affected by the tropical cyclone. The table below shows the number of people affected (by different categories of wind speed). It is important to note that these are forecast-based and thus subject to change as soon as the next update on the cyclone track is released: