Effect of biologics will be felt worldwide by 2017

Biologics will be about 20% of the world pharmaceutical market in three years, according to a study by the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics, part of IMS Health. That amounts to about $220 billion. “Development and production of biologics both branded and generic [biosimilars] is increasingly competitive, with a broad range of players, from small to large pharma companies,” says the study, “The Global Use of Medicines: Outlook Through 2017.”

Biologics’ share of total pharmaceutical sales worldwide

Developed markets (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, and South Korea) will be dominated by brand-name pharmaceuticals in 2017. Meanwhile, generics will dominate emerging markets — China, Brazil, Russia, and India — accounting for 63% of the total share. “While spending on brands in [emerging] markets will continue to grow in absolute terms, their relative share will decline from 31% to 26% by 2017, reflecting more rapid expansion of access to generics compared to the uptake of innovative branded medicines.”

Generics to gain market share

Spending on specialty pharmaceuticals is expected to increase by 30% in developed markets by 2017 and nearly 90% in emerging markets. “Innovative drug launches will be dominated by specialty medicines, reflecting a development pipeline that has an abundance of specialty products at all stages and particularly in the field of oncology.”

Specialty spending through 2017 (in billions)

Source: “The Global Use of Medicines: Outlook Through 2017,” IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics, November 2013

Nonetheless, specialty drugs will be harder to come by in the emerging markets, “with access, particularly to the latest medications, a continuing issue for patients in these countries.”