DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located
near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 96.8 West. Katia is moving
toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday. The center of Katia will make
landfall in Mexico late tonight or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected prior to landfall,
followed by rapid weakening thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels near and to the
north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and
Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi,
western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through
Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are
possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San
Luis Potosi. This rainfall will likely cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area tonight or early Saturday, with tropical
storm conditions expected to continue within the tropical storm
warning areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Katia will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.