Grimm Cancelled Or Renewed – TV By The Numbers by zap2it.comhttp://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com
Sun, 18 Feb 2018 05:25:28 +0000enhourly1http://wordpress.com/http://s2.wp.com/i/buttonw-com.pngGrimm Cancelled Or Renewed – TV By The Numbers by zap2it.comhttp://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com
Cancel Bear vs. NBC, week 33: Final predictions for ‘Timeless,’ ‘Chicago Fire’ and 9 othershttp://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/cancel-bear-vs-nbc-week-33-final-predictions-for-timeless-chicago-fire-and-9-others/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/cancel-bear-vs-nbc-week-33-final-predictions-for-timeless-chicago-fire-and-9-others/#commentsTue, 09 May 2017 14:42:29 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=507498The broadcast networks announce their 2017-18 schedules the week of May 15, so it’s time for the Bear’s last predictions for renewal or cancellation. Nearly every series still in limbo will know its fate by the end of this week.

Renewal chances for the 11 undecided NBC shows are below. The Bear still thinks “Timeless” will find a way onto the schedule, though maybe not by much. All four “Chicago” shows are good bets, none better than “Chicago Fire.”

After opening as a tossup last week, “Great News” downgrades to a likely cancellation. “Trial & Error” has a slightly better chance but still looks like it will be one and done. The Status column will update as more decisions are made.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Ratings for “Trial & Error” were not terrible during its compressed six-week run. They were also not especially good, falling a little on the wrong side of the 1.0 line.

“Taken,” meanwhile, is just above that mark for the season, but hasn’t been for an individual episode in a month. Both have been tossups for a while, but it’s time for the Bear to make a call, and the Bear believes both will be gone by season’s end.

NBC is attempting to rebuild its comedy brand with “Superstore” and “The Good Place” as foundational pieces. Neither one is what you’d call a hit, with “The Good Place” slightly above and “Superstore” a little below NBC’s scripted average for the season. The network can’t carry an even lower-rated show into next season. (The same fate may befall “Great News” as well. It’s a tossup as it’s only been on for a week, but the Bear will make an up-or-down call next week.)

“Taken” may have a slightly better chance, but it has largely squandered its plum time period retaining only about 43 percent of its “Voice” lead-in. (The 10 episodes of “Timeless” that aired after “The Voice” fared somewhat better, holding onto about 53 percent of the lead-in audience.) That pushes it down to likely cancellation.

Key:

DSW

Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing

sure bet to be canceled by May 2017

likely to be canceled by May 2017

tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017

likely to be renewed by May 2017

sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

]]>http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/cancel-bear-vs-nbc-week-32-verdicts-on-trial-error-and-taken-are-not-good/feed/2trial-and-error-renew-cancel-wk-32tvbnrickCancel Bear vs. NBC, week 31: ‘Timeless’ will get more time, ‘Taken’ still in limbohttp://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/cancel-bear-vs-nbc-week-31-timeless-will-get-more-time-taken-still-in-limbo/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/cancel-bear-vs-nbc-week-31-timeless-will-get-more-time-taken-still-in-limbo/#commentsTue, 25 Apr 2017 14:38:42 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=507000NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 31 of the 2016-17 season look at the relative merits of two shows that shared a time period this season.

This is a tale of two shows that mostly squandered a prime timeslot, of two of the bigger question marks heading into the final few weeks of the 2016-17 TV season, of whether a network can reasonably keep one or both shows on the air.

It’s tempting to look at “Timeless” and “Taken” as an either-or situation, since both occupied the post-“Voice” spot on Mondays this season. But it doesn’t have to be a zero-sum game.

On numbers alone, “Timeless” is in slightly better shape, but only slightly — it may end the season a little over a tenth of a point in front of “Taken.” “Taken,” meanwhile, has the advantage of being produced in-house by Universal Television. The Bear’s maxim is that all other things being equal, a show owned by the studio affiliated with its network is more likely to return than one from an outside supplier.

So where does that leave these two? The Bear is bumping up “Timeless” to a likely renewal, on gut feeling as much as anything. “Taken” is staying at a tossup for one more week.

It has been a weird season of TV, and the Bear wouldn’t be overly surprised if both shows — or neither of them — come back next year.

Key:

DSW

Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing

sure bet to be canceled by May 2017

likely to be canceled by May 2017

tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017

likely to be renewed by May 2017

sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

“The Blacklist” returns from hiatus this week to take over for its likely one-and-done spinoff, “The Blacklist: Redemption.” The parent show likely won’t suffer the same fate — it’s getting bumped up to a likely renewal.

Its spiritual descendant, “Blindspot,” however, is headed the other direction. Its fortunes have faded too much this season to make it a likely return.

“The Blacklist” has suffered this season, falling by about 26 percent vs. last season. It’s in the bottom third of NBC’s dramas in terms of ratings. And yet, given how important the show was in the network’s rebuild in recent years, the Bear believes it will get at least one more run.

“Blindspot’s” fall has been even steeper. After spending a full season following “The Voice” in 2015-16, the show was left to fend for itself on Wednesdays this season. The result: A dizzying 43 percent decline and ratings lower than “The Mysteries of Laura” had in the same spot a year ago.

“Blindspot” is cut from the same procedural-with-deep-backstory cloth as “The Blacklist” and got a similar launch in the valuable post-“Voice” slot. But “The Blacklist” has been more valuable to NBC for a longer period of time, so their fortunes diverge here. “The Blacklist” is likely to return in 2017-18, and “Blindspot” is not.

Key:

DSW

Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing

sure bet to be canceled by May 2017

likely to be canceled by May 2017

tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017

likely to be renewed by May 2017

sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

The Bear is clearing out tossup predictions as the season winds down. Sorry, “The Blacklist: Redemption” and “Emerald City” — you’re downgraded to likely cancellations.

NBC waited at least a year too long to try a “Blacklist” spinoff. The bloom has faded for the original show, and “Redemption” has barely kept itself above replacement level thus far during its run.

“Emerald City” didn’t do too badly in its Friday spot, but it’s also a show NBC spent two years dickering with — including scrapping it entirely at one point before reversing course — before finally scheduling it this fall. NBC will probably play the “it was intended as a limited series” card (it was, to be fair, marketed as such) and let it go.

Key:

DSW

Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing

sure bet to be canceled by May 2017

likely to be canceled by May 2017

tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017

likely to be renewed by May 2017

sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

]]>http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/cancel-bear-vs-nbc-week-28-the-blacklist-redemption-and-emerald-city-will-be-one-and-done/feed/2blacklist-redemption-renew-cancel-wk-29tvbnrickCancel Bear vs. NBC, week 28: ‘Powerless’ is living down to its titlehttp://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/cancel-bear-vs-nbc-week-28-powerless-is-living-down-to-its-title/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/cancel-bear-vs-nbc-week-28-powerless-is-living-down-to-its-title/#commentsTue, 04 Apr 2017 14:35:54 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=506355NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 28 of the 2016-17 season don’t like the chances for a freshman series.

“Powerless” is an apt title for the show it represents — everyday humans in a world where superheroes exist and are forever wrecking city blocks. It’s also a really, really easy punchline.

The show hasn’t done much of anything for NBC on Thursdays. Its season-low 0.5 rating last week was worse than reruns of “Trial & Error” (which is no smash) in the past couple weeks. It’s just a touch above replacement level, and even while NBC is in rebuild mode with its comedies, that’s not going to cut it.

“Powerless” is downgraded to a likely cancellation.

Key:

DSW

Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing

sure bet to be canceled by May 2017

likely to be canceled by May 2017

tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017

likely to be renewed by May 2017

sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

“Grimm” comes to an end Friday, after six seasons of not having to look over its shoulder for the Bear all that often. It was a solid performer on Friday nights for most of its run.

And now that it’s leaving, NBC’s future on the night could be — wait for it — rather grim.

Friday shows tend to be viewed by a somewhat older audience, and the overall circulation on the night is generally lower than on other weeknights. Still, ABC and CBS have found stability and success there with shows like “Last Man Standing,” “Shark Tank,” “Hawaii Five-0” and “Blue Bloods.” NBC had the same with “Grimm” and was wise to park it on Friday for all but a handful of its 123 episodes.

It’s going to be tough to replicate that longevity in the future. The broadcast business is in decline, as we all know, and the Peak TV era makes it harder for any new show to get a foothold on any night. One thing the Friday stalwarts have in common is they’re all holdovers from the pre-streaming era that locked in loyal audiences years ago.

All shows end, and “Grimm’s” declines last season and this suggest it’s closing out at the right time. But unless it moves a show with “Chicago” in its title to Fridays next season, NBC will likely look back wistfully on the 0.8 rating “Grimm” has put up this season.

Key:

DSW

Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing

sure bet to be canceled by May 2017

likely to be canceled by May 2017

tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017

likely to be renewed by May 2017

sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

The Bear had “Shades of Blue” rated as a tossup for renewal in the early going, wanting to see how it performed over a longer sample. NBC had no such reservations, renewing the show two weeks into its second season.

The pickup merits a mild eyebrow raise for its speed, but it’s not a huge surprise. Shorter-run series tend to have lower ratings thresholds — 10 weeks at or slightly below a 1.0 in adults 18-49 is an easier pill to swallow than 22 weeks at that level — and NBC likely wants to stay in business with Jennifer Lopez.

The Bear will get his NBC sustenance elsewhere come spring.

Key:

DSW

Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing

sure bet to be canceled by May 2017

likely to be canceled by May 2017

tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017

likely to be renewed by May 2017

sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Note: Because of Nielsen delays, averages for Sunday shows are through March 5. March 12 ratings will be factored in next week.

After two episodes, ratings for “Taken” are trailing those of “Timeless” after two episodes. Taking into account fall vs. spring, the difference — 1.4 thus far for “Taken” compared to 1.6 for “Timeless” two weeks in — isn’t that big. But it’s worth watching in the coming weeks.

If the two shows end up roughly equal in the ratings, and if NBC opts to take only one of them next season, the smart money would be on “Taken.” It’s owned by NBCUniversal where “Timeless” is not. But that’s predicated on “Taken” finding some stability for the remainder of the season.

“Taken’s” week 2 drop is cause for concern — enough for the Bear to scale back from likely renewal to tossup for now. It could earn that extra bear face back with some consistency post-daylight saving. But it’s not there yet.

Key:

DSW

Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing

sure bet to be canceled by May 2017

likely to be canceled by May 2017

tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017

likely to be renewed by May 2017

sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

No network TV franchise has lasted more than one season after extending itself past three related shows. The early returns on “Chicago Justice” suggest all four of Dick Wolf’s Windy City shows may be back next year.

There’s only been one four-show franchise in recent history: “Law & Order” pulled it off in 2004-05 with the original show, “SVU,” “Criminal Intent” and “Trial by Jury.” The latter was one and done after not measuring up to the ratings of the other three.

It’s early yet, but in its first two episodes “Chicago Justice” has shown to be of a piece ratings-wise with its Chicago brethren. Its 1.4 rating Sunday, away from the three-part crossover that launched it, is a good early sign that viewers will follow it to its regular home. For those reasons it’s starting life as a likely renewal.

Key:

DSW

Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing

sure bet to be canceled by May 2017

likely to be canceled by May 2017

tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017

likely to be renewed by May 2017

sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

]]>http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/cancel-bear-vs-nbc-week-24-chicago-justice-starts-on-solid-footing/feed/0chicago-justice-renew-cancel-wk-24tvbnrickCancel Bear vs. NBC, week 23: ‘The Blacklist: Redemption’ is going to need helphttp://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/cancel-bear-vs-nbc-week-23-the-blacklist-redemption-is-going-to-need-help/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/cancel-bear-vs-nbc-week-23-the-blacklist-redemption-is-going-to-need-help/#commentsTue, 28 Feb 2017 15:48:19 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=505173NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 23 of the 2016-17 season are not very high on a new addition to the lineup.

The numbers for “The Blacklist: Redemption don’t paint a very redemptive picture with its premiere. Like a number of new 10 p.m. dramas before it this season, the show put up a sub-1.0 rating for its first episode.

That’s 24 percent below the average for “Redemption’s” parent show, “The Blacklist” — which is itself down 26 percent vs. last season.

Those are not numbers NBC wants to hear when it’s trying to expand a franchise. The network’s wish to do so (and the small sample size) leaves “Redemption” as a tossup after week 1. But it’s on a very short leash.

Key:

DSW

Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing

sure bet to be canceled by May 2017

likely to be canceled by May 2017

tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017

likely to be renewed by May 2017

sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Show 1: Produced by Warner Bros., Season 2 average 1.1 in adults 18-49, 38 episodes after Season 2.

Show 2: Produced by Warner Bros., Season 2 average 1.1, 45 episodes after Season 2.

Show 2, you have probably surmised from the headline, is “Blindspot.” Show 1 is the series it replaced in the 8 p.m. Wednesday spot this season, “The Mysteries of Laura.”

“Blindspot” was renewed very early last season on the strength of its first eight episodes, after which it declined considerably. Its ratings profile now is basically identical to that of “Laura” last season, with the exception of that episode count. “Blindspot” will have two full seasons under its belt by May.

Will that be enough for Warner Bros. and NBC to make a deal for a third season? It’s a coin flip at this point. But if the show keeps missing that 1.0 mark, it’s likely headed for the same fate as “Laura.”

Key:

DSW

Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing

sure bet to be canceled by May 2017

likely to be canceled by May 2017

tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017

likely to be renewed by May 2017

sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.