Shale gas and Turkmenistan | June 6, 2010

Shale gas is natural gas produced from shale. Shale gas has become an increasingly more important source of natural gas in the United States over the past decade, and interest has spread to potential gas shales in Canada, Europe, Asia, and Australia.

Some analysts expect that shale gas will greatly expand worldwide energy supply. A study by the Baker Institute of Public Policy at Rice University concluded that increased shale gas production in the US and Canada could help prevent Russia and Persian Gulf countries from dictating higher prices for the gas it exports to European countries. The Obama administration in the US believes that increased shale gas development will help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

It’s all very nice and beautiful, however it takes time to learn technology and develop gas fields. After some time America’s shale gas revolution will definitely spread into Canada, Europe and Asia.

Demand and supply will add some pepper to this game. Companies and countries will run economics; is it cheaper to import gas from Turkmenistan, or is it cheaper to invest billions to produce gas from shale formations? It all takes time and considerations.
How much of the demand can be met by shale gas and how soon?
50% of demand? Then Turkmen gas is still in the game, aint it?

The truth is; we all want miracles, but the real world works based on realities and economics. Only time will tell if we’re wrong about building East-West pipeline (which I think is a great project), there’s no need to assume that Ashgabat cannot run economics. Too frequently it was proven that Turkmenistan is right.

Well, I agree that shale gas is a game changer. However, again we cannot assume the game will change in one year, and 100% of gas will be produced by importers themselves.

There’s a lot Turkmenistan should have done to prevent dependency on natural gas only; like building more universities and investing in human capital. We will probably see how exporting governments will react with diversification of economies. Again, not totally and not so fast.