Roberts' foe begins to close gap

Less than a week before primary day, Kansas Republican Sen. Pat Roberts is still ahead, but he has a real race on his hands against a tea party challenger the establishment had largely written off months ago.

The three-term incumbent is losing ground in polls, as he spends big on the airwaves to fight off the image of a Washington insider who lives in suburban Virginia and stays with campaign donors during his infrequent visits back home. Meanwhile, Milton Wolf, a radiologist who had never run for office, is inching closer, despite being wrapped up in a scandal after posting X-rays of deceased patients on Facebook.

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The latest automated poll conducted by SurveyUSA has Roberts up by 20 points — narrower than his 33-point edge a month ago. Although Roberts still holds a solid lead, in the aftermath of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s shocking primary defeat, even a 20-point gap isn’t enough to comfort establishment Republicans when the trend line is moving in Wolf’s favor.

“It’s definitely closer than we expected,” said one GOP operative close to the race on Roberts’ side.

Except for Wolf’s scandal, the conditions are favorable for an upset: Tea party groups who fell short in the Mississippi Senate race are turning their attention toward Kansas; Roberts, who has worked in Washington for 47 years (including time as a congressional staffer), is facing reelection in a cycle in which the anti-Washington sentiment is much stronger; and although Roberts took his challenger seriously, the establishment didn’t consider Wolf a major threat and didn’t come out on Roberts’ behalf as it did for Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran.

In the final days before the Aug. 5 primary, Roberts’ campaign is focusing its line of attack on reminding voters in TV and radio ads that Wolf shared X-rays of his patients on his Facebook page. Wolf is completely ignoring the X-ray scandal and is instead touting his outsider label while hitting Roberts on his longevity in D.C.

Roberts has poured about $1.5 million into radio and TV buys since June – about $250,000 of which has been spent in the final two weeks, according to media trackers. And only two groups — the American Hospital Association and the National Rifle Association — together have spent an additional $250,000 supporting the incumbent, according to Federal Election Commission reports.

“Roberts’ increased attacks and draining of available primary dollars is not the behavior of a confident campaign,” said Jamestown Associates’ Jason Miller, who is working for Wolf. “This is a campaign that’s freaking out. … Roberts’ lack of Kansas residency and liberal voting record aren’t problems that money can solve.”

Wolf has spent about $400,000 on ads, and his biggest supporter — the Senate Conservatives Fund and its affiliated super PAC — have spent about $550,000 on ads and other independent expenditures on the challenger’s behalf.

Last week brought news that a state medical board is investigating Wolf’s conduct in the X-ray scandal, which included a Facebook post in which he said a man decapitated by gunfire resembled an alien in the movie “Terminator.” But some on Roberts’ side have questioned whether they should have tried to save that story for closer to the primary, when voters would be paying closer attention. The initial story outlining how Wolf posted the X-rays of dead patients broke in February.

“They rolled out the X-ray ethics issue far too early and should have sat on that for a few more months,” said the pro-Roberts operative.

But other establishment Republicans said the X-ray attack defined Wolf before he could define himself — and potentially denied him the backing of the Club for Growth.

“There’s never a right answer for that kind of thing,” said Brian Walsh, a GOP consultant and former NRSC staffer. “But it definitely prevented Wolf from gaining momentum early on.”