Weather Forecasts: Why Some Are Just Myths

Ever wonder why some forecasts are spot-on while others leave you confused? Let’s take a look at different forecasts and investigate how accurate (or inaccurate) they are.

Credit: cosmik.debris via Flickr

Nowcasting

Nowcasting is the process of predicting the weather between the current time and about 6-7 hours ahead. Nowcasting allows people to plan one-day trips and Know Before™ severe weather strikes and ruins your fun, or even worse, puts you in harms way. This forecast is based on satellite, radar, and observational data so it allows meteorologists to predict the weather very accurately with a small margin of error. WeatherBug uses real-time data from the largest weather observation network in the world (ours!) for our nowcast forecast. Our scientists have found that having more updated weather data increased the accuracy of our nowcast by 25% when compared to other weather sources!

Credit: WeatherBug for Android

7 – 10 Day Forecasting

This type of forecast is determined through algorithms that attempt to get as close to the actual weather as possible. The accuracy of this forecast is still very good but given that it predicts so far into the future, there are bound to be variables that were not accounted for or could not be accurately predicted, leading to some minor deviations. Weather changes frequently so WeatherBug updates our 10 day forecast multiple times daily so you have the most reliable forecast to plan your lives!

Credit: WeatherBug for Android

30 Day Climate Forecast

This is a forecast that is trend-based, historical view of a given time period. This forecast is made to give people the most general sense of what to expect when they are planning some activity like a wedding. For this type of forecast, meteorologists look at long-term trends based on known triggers like El Nino, ocean currents and long wave oscillation.

45 Day (inaccurate) Forecasting

Confused as to why some weather companies do this? So are we. – Credit: maartmeester via Flickr

Some companies claim to have a 45 day forecast that they say is reliable. This is not possible… do not be fooled. The reason for this is the sheer amount of variables that have to be inputted and accounted for. Another reason is that the variance in weather just becomes too high to predict accurately. You’re better off looking at 30 Day Climate Forecasts!

Download WeatherBug (it’s free!) for your smartphone today to get the fastest alerts and the most accurate & reliable forecasts to Know Before™: