Russian convoy of trucks carrying humanitarian aid for Ukraine stops along a road in the city of Voronezh August 12, 2014.
REUTERS/Nikita Paukov

A mysterious convoy of 280 Russian trucks that have been driving toward the Ukrainian border could lead to outright military conflict, according to a note from Nomura senior political analyst Alastair Newton.

Moscow claims the trucks contain 2,000 tons of supplies including cereals, sugar, baby food, and medical supplies and are part of a Red Cross-endorsed aid mission to war-torn eastern Ukraine. The Red Cross has denied its involvement, however, and there are reports that the trucks are military vehicles painted white with no license plates and that soldiers were seen operating them.

Newton wrote in a Wednesday note that most investors have not recognized how bad this could be:

"Markets appear to take the view that the imminent arrival of a Russian 'humanitarian aid' convoy in eastern Ukraine marks a de-escalation in tensions. In my opinion, as Moscow appears to be acting without co-ordinating appropriately with either Kiev or the Red Cross, which is not only unproven but also potentially dangerously complacent. The convoy may be just what Moscow claims; but - reminiscent of South Ossetia in August 2008 - it may also be designed to try to provoke Kiev into actions which would give Russia a pretext for military intervention."

Kiev and the West warn that the convoy may be a provocation as Russia could send the trucks into Ukraine without inspection — a crucial requirement for the Red Cross to take responsibility for the convoy.

"The Russians and the Ukrainians have not agreed on the first step," Pascal Cuttat, the head of the Red Cross delegation in Moscow, told The Times.

The approach of the convoy presents Kiev with a dilemma.

Ukraine says it fears it could become the focus of tension and conflict once on its soil and provide pretext for a Russian armed incursion. At the same time, Kiev does not want to seem to be blocking aid and providing a moral basis for Kremlin action.

Russia, which sees Russian-speakers in the east under threat from a government it considers chauvinistic, said any suggestion of a link between the convoy and an invasion plan was absurd.

War Zone

The military situation in eastern Ukraine, according to Ukraine.
Ukraine Defense Ministry
A presidential spokesman said that the Ukrainians, at a meeting late on Tuesday night, had agreed to accept the aid for Luhansk region in a bid to prevent "a full-scale invasion" by Russia.

Four months of fighting in the east has produced a humanitarian crisis in parts of eastern Ukraine. People in the main cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, on the border with Russia, are suffering acute shortages of water, food and electricity.

The last few weeks has seen significant government successes against rebels who have abandoned a string of towns under heavy fire. Kiev says rebel leaders, some of whom are Russians and who seek union with Russia, are receiving arms from Moscow, something the Kremlin denies.

U.N. human rights spokeswoman Cecile Pouilly said the estimated death toll had risen to 2,086 as of Aug. 10 from 1,129 on July 26. The figures included Ukrainian soldiers, rebel groups and civilians, but were "very conservative estimates."

"This corresponds to a clear escalating trend," she told Reuters in response to an inquiry.

"Absent more transparency in Moscow and full co-operation with Kiev and the Red Cross, I believe that the Russian aid convoy, no matter how innocent in reality, runs the risk of triggering a dangerously volatile situation once it gets to the border," Newton concludes. "As such, it poses a potential threat to which markets should pay careful attention."