THE BREAKFAST BRIEFING

Get ready for some fireworks.

No, not the Fourth of July festivities – still a day away – but this week’s deluge of jobs data. ADP figures and weekly jobless claims are due later this morning. The almighty monthly jobs report is coming Friday morning after the holiday.

The spotlight shining on employment data has intensified in recent months, not only for what the numbers say about the state of the economy, but for what they suggest about future Fed policy. A bigger pickup in job growth could push the Fed closer to start winding down its bond-buying program, a prospect Chairman Ben Bernanke has said could start later this year and conclude by mid-2014.

First up is the survey of private-sector job growth, conducted by ADP and forecasting firm Moody’s Analytics. Economists estimate private businesses added 160,000 jobs last month, up from 135,000 jobs a year earlier.

The fact that markets haven’t had big moves this week suggests investors have been waiting for this slew of jobs data to act as the next big catalysts. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note remains perched around 2.5%. Stocks have largely recovered recent losses, although the S&P 500 finished yesterday below its 50-day moving average, a key technical level that had been a great area of support throughout much of the first half of the year, and is now providing resistance to bigger gains.

“Assuming [today] won’t be an exciting day in either direction, Friday’s payroll report will be watched for ammunition in either direction,” says Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at New York brokerage BTIG.

Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, said he expects 145,000 nonfarm payrolls were added last month, down from the 175,000 increase in May. The only way LaVorgna would adjust his payroll forecast, he says, is “if ADP surprises us meaningfully in either direction.”

Stock and bond markets are open for only a half day today and closed Thursday in observance of the Fourth of July. Trading volume is expected to be lower than usual on Wednesday and Friday, which could exaggerate market moves as investors use the data to try to determine what the Fed will do next.

LaVorgna takes a glass-half-full approach to the situation. “A weak number will not necessarily change our view on a September QE tapering,” he says. That’s because weekly jobless claims have consistently averaged below 350,000 over the past three months, a sign of an improving labor market.

“If this continues into the third quarter, we can be confident that any weak employment readings are temporary,” he says.

With trading desks expected to be half empty today and Friday, some investors suggest to take the market action over the remainder of the week with an extra grain of salt and look to the moves next week to confirm recent action.

“Once all of the bodies are back in the game, then we can expect volatility as earnings season begins,” says Kenneth Polcari, director of trading floor operations for O’Neil Securities.

Morning MoneyBeat Daily Factoid: On this day in 1985, the science-fiction hit movie “Back to the Future” was released in movie theaters.

-Steven Russolillo

STOCKS TO WATCH

Mead Johnson Nutrition Co&lt;/strong>. andAbbott Laboratoriesare likely to be under close scrutiny in Wednesday’s abbreviated trading session after the Chinese government went after foreign infant-formula companies for alleged antitrust violations.

MUST READS (LINKS)

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27 More Rules of Fourth of July Wiffle Ball: “It is that time of year, time for Wiffle ball, and not the serious, hard-throwing version—there really is such a version, and it’s frightening—but the family and friends version, played for laughs, and hopefully a few beers, without any bench-clearing brawls. This is the Journal’s second installment of Wiffle ball rules; everyone who read the first installment got a $100 million contract from the Los Angeles Dodgers. So here we go:”