I like the Patriots in this game for number of reasons besides the fact that I am a huge fan.

1. The Houston running game vs. Patriots D. A lot of houston backers will cite the running game as being able to have its way vs. Pats. Granted, this will be the best O-line that the Pats face this year. Pats backers will cite pats have been good against the run. So even though pats have been good against the run, they haven't faced a running team like the Texans - best in the league. The Patriots should be able to stop run or at least the Texans run game won't be the reason why Houston wins this game, if they in fact win, because the Patriots are going to force HOU to throw to win.

Additionally, Patriots give up around 100 yds a game. Towards the top and only give up 3.9 / per attempt. Take out the Buffalo game where they got gashed by Fred Jackson/Spiller and You have a top 5 run D. Spiller/Jackson/Buffalo always score vs. Pats.

Finally, HOU line banged up and haven't been as affective recently due to injuries to RT, T, Guards, NT, Tight ends and others.

2. Patriots weakness this year (disregarding the let down game vs. Arizona) is that they come out to leads in the 1H and they hang on for dear life in the 2half mostly in the 4th Q. This happened vs. Baltimore most notably. Even though Pats probably won that game. The D play calling changes to prevent D and the Offensive play calling becomes too conservative with an emphasis on running the ball and eating clock. The Buffalo game was the last instance of this. Since the Buffalo game and the acquisition of Talib, The patriots have changed up their philosophies on both sides of the ball. On offense they have kept their foot on the gas pedal and put an emphasis on finishing the game and on Defense they have started to mix more blitzes in.

What this all boils down to is that they are going to put the game in Schuab's hands. He hasn't been asked to do this all year. The times that he has had to throw to keep HOU in the game have resulted in close games (Detroit, Jacksonville). Schuab has the ability to throw as we have seen in the past; however, he is a little like Romo when forced to throw. A gunslinger but does make mistakes. Prior to HOU changing offensive philosophy from focus on run to focus on pass he through 27 picks between 2009-2010. In 2011 they switched to run first and he limited his picks because he was just being asked to manage the game. This year 1/3 of his interceptions have come in the games that he has had to throw (Jax / Det). Patriots have been either best or 2nd best in league with takeaways.

4. Patriots are at home and need the game more. Texans, even if they lose still have the top spot in the AFC due to having more wins. If Texans beat the Pats they can still beat the Ravens and win the AFC.

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