December 08, 2011

Almost three years out, Udall in good shape for CO-Sen.

Raleigh, N.C. – If Mark Udall had to stand for re-election right now, the freshman senator from Colorado would win handily over either of two major Republicans thrown at him. Udall has a solid 41-31 approval spread, but he improves on that margin in both horseraces. Looking ahead to 2014, Udall leads former Secretary of State and current Rep. Mike Coffman by 14 points (48-34), and ex-Lt. Gov. Jane Norton by 17 (50-33).

Udall has leads of more than 30 points with independents against either potential foe; since they are a sizeable 28% of the electorate, this accounts for much of Udall’s overall leads. He also wins more of the GOP vote than either Republican does of the senator’s Democratic base, pulling 12% of Republicans to Coffman’s 9% of Democrats and 13%/7% versus Norton.

Both Coffman and Norton have net-negative favorability numbers, and neither is particularly well-known for former statewide-elected officials; 57% are unfamiliar with Coffman and 48% with Norton. But Coffman is more popular; 17% see him favorably and 26% unfavorably (-9), versus 16/36 (-20) for Norton.

John Hickenlooper is just barely, by one point on the marign, the second most popular of 37 governors on which PPP has polled this year, after Mississippi’s Haley Barbour. 53% of Coloradans approve and 23% disapprove of their new governor’s job performance, the same +30 spread as when PPP last polled the state in August (54-24). 10% of his party disapproves, but he almost breaks even with Republicans (31-39), and independents mirror the overall electorate.

Udall’s junior colleague Michael Bennet has slipped a little on the approval front, from 44-36 to 38-33. He is still more popular with his base (60-15) than across the aisle (16-55), but in August, 23% of Republicans approved. Bennet has upped his support among independents a bit, from 40-37 to 36-29.

PPP surveyed 793 Colorado voters from December 1st to 4th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 52%Man................................................................. 48%

Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 37%Republican...................................................... 35%Independent/Other.......................................... 28%

Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 15%30 to 45........................................................... 27%46 to 65........................................................... 38%Older than 65.................................................. 20%

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