A couple (or more) months back someone posted basically that catching carriers was near impossible and I posted a whole bunch of surface group intercepts of carriers from just one PBM game. Do they have better chances to get away because of doctrine as programmed into the game engine, sure. Can they be caught and destroyed, oh yes.

A couple (or more) months back someone posted basically that catching carriers was near impossible and I posted a whole bunch of surface group intercepts of carriers from just one PBM game. Do they have better chances to get away because of doctrine as programmed into the game engine, sure. Can they be caught and destroyed, oh yes.

Like most things in the game it's a matter of what you're willing to pay.

1) Chungking is tucked in nicely. Units upgrading and filling out, Forts working on 8. Supply levels hover near stability, but too low. Once Forts are done this will be a priority. Will leave a strong garrison at Chengtu to guard the input of the yellow road through the mountains, and a 1-stack on the west at Neikiang to allow Resources to flow to Chungking.

2) Moving west we see the last of the road marchers both in the mountains (along with road-severing "guards" camped out in the high country), and two decent-sized stacks heading for the low mountains being pursued west of Kweiyang. At Kunming they will go Strat to rest and get ahead of the pursuit. After that I'm done with railroads in China for several years.

3) The string continues along the roads all the way to Lashio. Supply is rare at waystations like Paoshan. Once everything is to Lashio or better all other bases east will be abandoned. Lashio will have a very storng garrison to guard Mandalay's flank. A frontier fort. Probably some flankers will be put out in rough terrain to hold off encirclement in bad tank country. Coming across, Japan will not capture cheap supplies. If it wants to hit Lashio it will need to bring its own.

4) At Lashio everybody gets on the choo-choo again and goes to a base where the choo-choo does. Either in the Mandalay group, up and over the river, or preps to go to India for garrison relief. At this point most are going to do the last. The Mandalay group is well defended now, and at the limits of its supply carrying capacity, even pre-monsoon.

5) Taung Gyi is strongly held, with more coming. The Japanese stack to the west is 11 LCUs with tanks, now retreating SW. The Chinese corps which was in a block to the SW on the gray road is heading NW to re-block there and sit against the river.

6) NE, near Myitkyina, Chinese LCUs can be seen jumping across the jungle for Kohima, then to Dimapur, then railroad to India.

7) Imphal has 7000 supply now, and is rapidly building a medium-large AF. The dot base on the railroad to its NW is being built as well.

8) The supply sea-road into Chittagong can be seen here, leading from Calcutta, but also Madras and Colombo. Chittagong has a strong garrison.

9) Armor is moving down the coast road for Akyab, to be joined by infantry from Chittagong as well as overland Chinese units seen here. There are unseen Japanese LCUs in the jungle near the river crossing NW of Prome. I think the Allies will win this race for Akyab. Further units are detailed to Cox's Bazaar. Akyab is recieving about 7000 supply now in a vacant base, to be used by the defenders on the way.

10) Port Blair is at Forts 3, and has an AF nearly at 3 as well. It has light patrol and bombers. It has a strong Aussie division in defense, and several engineer units. Supplies are about 23,000 and increasing from Colombo.

Mike and I are in an e-mail exchange I initiated. Several rounds so far; we're coming to some new internal "rules" for the game pacing. Part of my objective in this PBEM is to push into areas not normally discussed, or at least discussed in AARs, with a view to proposing ways to make the PBEM experience better. One was the no-HR stance. Another was the "play the design; play for VPs" stance. And recently it has been about time management and game pace.

Mike has a very busy life; I do not. He committed to 3-5 turns a week and has faithfully kept to that. Recently though I have sensed--and he said once in a transmission e-mail--that he is rushed in doing the turn and not able to get everything done. Very often I get the movie at bedtime Central time, and the turn the next morning around 7AM his time, which suggests he is dashing it off on the way out the door to work. I OTOH have the luxury of an entire morning to look at Tracker and do my side with no time constraints. We all know that AE rewards attention to detail. And I don't think it's fair I have so much more time for my attention.

So I proposed we set a time limit on both sides for turn prep. We both have phones with countdown timers. He proposed two hours and I agreed. I said I could go lower. This morning, after sleeping on it, I added a suggestion that we try pre-scheduled weekend "turn storms" where he would notify me in advance, say on Friday, if he would be free at specific times on a specific weekend day, and we would do as many turns as possible in 45-minute cylces: 30 for the turn, 10 for Tracker, 5 for the replay. I would do the AARs after the storm from archived text files.

Mike expressed that his biggest worry is that our pace will not allow the game to finish in any sort of reasonable real life time. He proposed going to 2-day cycles. I would prefer not to do this for several game mechanic reasons (carrier battles with reacts being primary.) But I too would like the game to play faster. Three turns a week, which has only happened rarely, is too slow for me to keep focus and flow. While he can't guarantee that there won't be 3-turn weeks--and I fully understand that--he too would like more speed.

Additionally but tangentially, I asked that we revisit the time limit issue on 1/1/43 and again on 1/1/44 given the huge spikes in Allied units needing to be pushed around. I said in effect that the Allies need more time just to stay in the same place in the out years. I think such a re-visit will work.

I'll post when we get a resolution on all this. I just wanted to openly discuss it in case this is an issue in any readers' PBEMs.

1) USN subs have four encounters with IJN units and convoys with no hits. Wakkanai x2, Shikuka, Cam Ranh Bay. Have to keep plugging. So far there have been far fewer surface gun battles than I recall in AI games. Perhaps I need radar and my memory is too rosy. Radar upgrades are now less than a month away. I always waffle on whether to hold subs back at PH for, say, ten days to get into the upgrade rather than send them out on yet another radar-less patrol.

I have also gotten to the point logistically and tactically where I'm comfortable using Midway in its historic role of top-off fueler. I won't put a tender there yet, but outgoing boats will waypoint there to fill up and extend their HI station-keeping. The first two fleet boats will pass through tomorrow.

2) There is no land attack at Singers, but the air press cranks up another notch. Eight large attacks, seven of them bombing, hit the base. The AF is crushed as are a number of supply points, but again the AA takes stiff retribution. I think Mike believes he must take the base on the next try. Failure to do so at the cost of crippled engineers will delay second-phase objectives into April or beyond. To that end, and with his demonstrated meticulous preparation before major attacks, I now expect at least two more days of prep before the attack, which I think will be a Shock. That's my money there on the table, folks. [8D]

3) Palembang also gets three large attacks which damage patrol planes. P. has no CAP at the moment. The bombing is sufficient to prevent fort building. It has been stalled for at least ten days now.

4) The IJA stack is massing in Clark's hex. This base might hold one day (Forts 3, a tiny bit of organic supply), but might not. Its AF is bombed today again.

5) Allies hit back in B-17 strikes on Singkawang's AF, 2 more Oil hits on Samarinda, and harrassment by Banshees on the small garrison at Madang on NG's north coast. A small P-38 sweep on Djambi and another small Banshee stirke on JB's AF do no damage and incur no losses.

6) UNDERDOG continues without apparent detection.

7) Five APDs are sent to Oz to aid in ASW as well as, perhaps, the defense of Java/Sumatra. For underway refueling they are accompanied by five fast xAKs carrying fuel for Sydney. This is the first west-bound Allied convoy of the war. Over forty TFs are now running off-map between UK/Canada/EC and CT.

I would not be quite so quick in abandoning everything east of Lashio.

1. The Chinese redoubt Paoshan/Tsyuyang/Kunming is not necessarily doomed to end up in supply deficit. The airbridge Ledo-Paoshan is a better is better than Ledo-Chengtu. The big differences being shorter range (less operational losses plus all American transport aircraft can make the run) and you can also fly out of other Indian bases into Paoshan.

2. You should look up your reinforcement schedule and note what arrives in the redoubt. Then factor in the ramifications of having lost the arrival location.

3. It is a long ship voyage from from Shanghai to Rangoon. Makes life a lot easier for the IJA if it can just march through the redoubt.

4. Any sort of Chinese garrison in the redoubt threatens to breakout in 1943 towards the sea at Haiphong. Japan needs to be watchful of that because it doesn't get those 4 Vietmin divs in 1943.

Am not saying you should fight to the death in the redoubt but am saying giving it away for free might not be the best decision.

I would not be quite so quick in abandoning everything east of Lashio.

1. The Chinese redoubt Paoshan/Tsyuyang/Kunming is not necessarily doomed to end up in supply deficit. The airbridge Ledo-Paoshan is a better is better than Ledo-Chengtu. The big differences being shorter range (less operational losses plus all American transport aircraft can make the run) and you can also fly out of other Indian bases into Paoshan.

2. You should look up your reinforcement schedule and note what arrives in the redoubt. Then factor in the ramifications of having lost the arrival location.

3. It is a long ship voyage from from Shanghai to Rangoon. Makes life a lot easier for the IJA if it can just march through the redoubt.

4. Any sort of Chinese garrison in the redoubt threatens to breakout in 1943 towards the sea at Haiphong. Japan needs to be watchful of that because it doesn't get those 4 Vietmin divs in 1943.

Am not saying you should fight to the death in the redoubt but am saying giving it away for free might not be the best decision.

Alfred

By all means even if/when the Chungking plain is lost it is worthwhile holding the road to Burma as Alfred notes. However difficult it will be to hold, it will be waaay more difficult to retake it. And in IJ hands it provides a very easy route to Burma for Japanese troops.

I would not be quite so quick in abandoning everything east of Lashio.

1. The Chinese redoubt Paoshan/Tsyuyang/Kunming is not necessarily doomed to end up in supply deficit. The airbridge Ledo-Paoshan is a better is better than Ledo-Chengtu. The big differences being shorter range (less operational losses plus all American transport aircraft can make the run) and you can also fly out of other Indian bases into Paoshan.

2. You should look up your reinforcement schedule and note what arrives in the redoubt. Then factor in the ramifications of having lost the arrival location.

3. It is a long ship voyage from from Shanghai to Rangoon. Makes life a lot easier for the IJA if it can just march through the redoubt.

4. Any sort of Chinese garrison in the redoubt threatens to breakout in 1943 towards the sea at Haiphong. Japan needs to be watchful of that because it doesn't get those 4 Vietmin divs in 1943.

Am not saying you should fight to the death in the redoubt but am saying giving it away for free might not be the best decision.

Alfred

Excellent points, Alfred. I have a corps and an HQ at Paoshan holding it while the Chinese horde passes. I could easily stop some of the latter horde. I have not looked at the arrival queue.

I had intended to move south into northern Indo-China in late 1942 if possible. I have never much accounted for the Vietnamese militia-type reinforcments; I probably should look at what's in them.

My general, very general, idea in western China is to throw chairs and tables in front of him if he wants to come that way, but not to tie down so much Chinese force that I sacrifice the main objective, which is to get China nearer to supply and to relieve the Indian Army to fight. Ledo right now is, of course, a non-factor with 18k supply and three very weak transport units. That will change. Your points about destination I had not considered. I was thinking Chengtu in a "traditional" manner to help Chungking build/survive the supply deficit which will come when the fuel runs out--which is pretty soon. The flow from Lanchow is blocked many times over.

Mike also slept on it and decided that he does not want to use a time limit right now. His feeling is the economy management in the early game is too important and time consuming to be held to a set time period per turn.

He also said he has played 2-day turns in previous PBEM and knows there are severe trade-offs. He is not advocating for this now, but wanted to offer it if I am feeling constrained by the game's pace. It's really the only way to markedly accelerate given his schedule doesn't have flex.

We are re-jiggering turn expectations during the week to better fit his schedule. And we will try to do some weekend multi-flips to accelerate, and plan for them in a more formal and proactive manner. Many weekends, even without multis, he will get a turn in both days.

ORIGINAL: witpqs By all means even if/when the Chungking plain is lost it is worthwhile holding the road to Burma as Alfred notes. However difficult it will be to hold, it will be waaay more difficult to retake it. And in IJ hands it provides a very easy route to Burma for Japanese troops.

I'm unclear how much supply Japan can effectively pull into and through the low mountains around Paoshan. I have tried to set up defenses in the Himalayas west of Chengtu, but Paoshan is the way I'd come if I were him. Can he operate and fight, say, 6-7 divisions at and past Paoshan towards Lashio?

ORIGINAL: witpqs By all means even if/when the Chungking plain is lost it is worthwhile holding the road to Burma as Alfred notes. However difficult it will be to hold, it will be waaay more difficult to retake it. And in IJ hands it provides a very easy route to Burma for Japanese troops.

I'm unclear how much supply Japan can effectively pull into and through the low mountains around Paoshan. I have tried to set up defenses in the Himalayas west of Chengtu, but Paoshan is the way I'd come if I were him. Can he operate and fight, say, 6-7 divisions at and past Paoshan towards Lashio?

All that way I'm not sure. However, if he can capture Kunming and beyond, all the way ot the Burma border, then he will have quite nicely secured the China front from any relief at least to the point it will be hell to open it up later. And, it's not (in my mind) so much Japan getting supplies through that route as much as it is them getting units through there. Whatever can be spared would simply be marched through. And, because there would be no Chinese units left in China (save Lanchow and north) to oppose them, that would be all but required garrisons. If you keep significant forces in place along that road then when the Chungking plain falls he will still have to keep troops in China to prevent your troops on that road from reasserting themselves. Without that need, all those troops will be in Burma blocking the Allied advance.

In terms of Chinese units, the problems you have are more about the overall quality of the troops and equipment. Until kicked up by sufficient combat, experience is much lower than most IJ units; leaders are generally poor and certainly lesser than most IJ leaders; morale starts out quite terrible and takes time to improve; the squads are poorly equipped (anti-hard and anti-soft); they are at best modestly equipped with heavy weapons. Add to that the supply situation which steadily worsens and, hugely, the constant aerial pounding that the IJ will deliver. So you will need to keep more troop strength on the road to hold it than you might think if not for all those disadvantages.

ORIGINAL: witpqs By all means even if/when the Chungking plain is lost it is worthwhile holding the road to Burma as Alfred notes. However difficult it will be to hold, it will be waaay more difficult to retake it. And in IJ hands it provides a very easy route to Burma for Japanese troops.

I'm unclear how much supply Japan can effectively pull into and through the low mountains around Paoshan. I have tried to set up defenses in the Himalayas west of Chengtu, but Paoshan is the way I'd come if I were him. Can he operate and fight, say, 6-7 divisions at and past Paoshan towards Lashio?

All that way I'm not sure. However, if he can capture Kunming and beyond, all the way ot the Burma border, then he will have quite nicely secured the China front from any relief at least to the point it will be hell to open it up later. And, it's not (in my mind) so much Japan getting supplies through that route as much as it is them getting units through there. Whatever can be spared would simply be marched through. And, because there would be no Chinese units left in China (save Lanchow and north) to oppose them, that would be all but required garrisons. If you keep significant forces in place along that road then when the Chungking plain falls he will still have to keep troops in China to prevent your troops on that road from reasserting themselves. Without that need, all those troops will be in Burma blocking the Allied advance.

In terms of Chinese units, the problems you have are more about the overall quality of the troops and equipment. Until kicked up by sufficient combat, experience is much lower than most IJ units; leaders are generally poor and certainly lesser than most IJ leaders; morale starts out quite terrible and takes time to improve; the squads are poorly equipped (anti-hard and anti-soft); they are at best modestly equipped with heavy weapons. Add to that the supply situation which steadily worsens and, hugely, the constant aerial pounding that the IJ will deliver. So you will need to keep more troop strength on the road to hold it than you might think if not for all those disadvantages.

Many good points.

If he gets through, takes down Lashio, and comes into Burma that way I've got problems. Lashio is intended to be the stopper, and has good terrain and rail supply to Mandalay. The monsoon is a kicker though. (But for him too. He's already commented that malaria is eating him up.) My strategy right now is to get to 1/1/43 and re-assess. I ain't never tried this, ossifer! Honest!

There are a good number of 50s Chinese leaders in Land, which is my fulcrum. I've swapped a dozen or so so far, mostly in Chungking. I can live with 50s. And you are very correct about the lack of AT and heavy wepaons in general. The Chinese corps makes up for it by being huge, eventually. Most of them are under 50% TOE now. I have Chungking, and some of Mandalay, on Replacements=on and nobody else. Tracker tells me I need 41,500 squads to fully outfit the Chinese army. So, what they need, if I can get them to 1943, is help from the Allies in arty and engineers. And air cover of course.

Also, to extend on what I said to Alfred, I hope that by the time Japan could break past Lashio the situation in Burma will have moved south, and they would emerge from the mouintains well north of their supply bases. And by then I would have decent 4E support in the theater and could pound them as they are pounding my Chinese now. Not to mention Indian armor released from garrison duty by Chinese visitors.

1) After one last Sally work-over Clark is attacked by a large stack. Forts are knocked down from 3 to 2, and then very favorable odds are achieved by Japan. The starving defenders mostly retreat, but thousands die or are captured. The only consolation is that the battle took as long as it did and tied down such a large host. Japan loses few men, but there is moderate disabling. The recovery and march to Bataan might take a week. Bataan has more troops, a little armor, a little arty, Forts 4, and no supplies.

2) In better war news, the Allies shift patrol tactics a bit, sending some Cats out at night. In the past this has not paid dividends, but tonight strong datums are registered on ASW TFs in the Makassar Strait. The Dutch navy takes advantage.

3) The RAF manages to sneak a fully-outfitted Hurricane squadron into Palembang--16 healthy planes. This is like ten pounds of Godiva chocolate to a starving sorority girl. When the raids come they are met with a fight:

Japanese aircraft G4M1 Betty x 22

Allied aircraft Hurricane IIb Trop x 13

Japanese aircraft losses G4M1 Betty: 3 destroyed

No Allied losses

Airbase hits 1 Runway hits 6

Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 26

Allied aircraft Hurricane IIb Trop x 12

Japanese aircraft losses A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses Hurricane IIb Trop: 3 destroyed

4) At Singers the attacks have multiple foci. Air field, port, and even one City target by Marys. (no hits.) (Yesterday Japan got one hit on the shipyard; it will be left for them to fix. [:)]) More damage, lots and lots of destroyed and damaged bombers. The port raids seem to always target the resident HDML and MLs and not unloading merchants. The City attack is too slight to create a trend, but if they continue tomorrow I might have to readjust my assault prediction. Blowing up the LI would take forever, and it's not what's keeping Singers on its feet.

5) The Allies attack the retreating 11-stack in Burma, both with Chinese bombers and AVG strafers. The IJA fighters succeed in breaking up all attacks, but the Oscars are working overtime and I hope for some ops losses. One Zero is lost as well.

6) B-17s visit Kendari's AF in a break from Oil, as well as Malaca's AF (light damage):

Iīm a bit intrigued by 2-day turns. Seems like many players doesnīt like the idea. Yet I have seen many that tried it and canīt consider anything else after that. I can see how it certainly presents some problems but I canīt help thinking how nice it would be to actually go twice as fast! It would certainly make it easier to actually complete the game within a reasonable timeframe without having to do a crazy amount of turns.

ORIGINAL: witpqs By all means even if/when the Chungking plain is lost it is worthwhile holding the road to Burma as Alfred notes. However difficult it will be to hold, it will be waaay more difficult to retake it. And in IJ hands it provides a very easy route to Burma for Japanese troops.

I'm unclear how much supply Japan can effectively pull into and through the low mountains around Paoshan. I have tried to set up defenses in the Himalayas west of Chengtu, but Paoshan is the way I'd come if I were him. Can he operate and fight, say, 6-7 divisions at and past Paoshan towards Lashio?

Yes, he can. Takes a while to get supply here, but when it builds up and units are in the field, I've had no problems so far.

Iīm a bit intrigued by 2-day turns. Seems like many players doesnīt like the idea. Yet I have seen many that tried it and canīt consider anything else after that. I can see how it certainly presents some problems but I canīt help thinking how nice it would be to actually go twice as fast! It would certainly make it easier to actually complete the game within a reasonable timeframe without having to do a crazy amount of turns.

I've played a whole game untill 1945 using the 2-days-turns way against Rader... believe me: it's a whole new way of playin. Imagine how complicated is to manage a naval battle or a CVs operation in a two-days turn... It's fun anyway

Iīm a bit intrigued by 2-day turns. Seems like many players doesnīt like the idea. Yet I have seen many that tried it and canīt consider anything else after that. I can see how it certainly presents some problems but I canīt help thinking how nice it would be to actually go twice as fast! It would certainly make it easier to actually complete the game within a reasonable timeframe without having to do a crazy amount of turns.

I've played the AI in 1-, 2-, and 3-day turns. Most games I have started in 1s, then shifted to multis in low activity periods, then back to 1s for invasions.

In 1942 I think the risks are lower for the Allies. The formations are smaller, fewer carrier battles, and opposed invasions are rare. Later on there is far more chance of very large carrier battles being snakebit by bad Day 1 reacts. It's hard to watch five carriers go up in flames on Day 2 and not have been able to retreat them. And opposed landings, with the auto-shock rules, can go south in a hurry if the first phase shock attack gets shredded and you continue to unload onto a burning beach on Day 2. In a 1-day you can stop the TFs unloading and rest the beach survivors and usually recover the operation.

ORIGINAL: witpqs By all means even if/when the Chungking plain is lost it is worthwhile holding the road to Burma as Alfred notes. However difficult it will be to hold, it will be waaay more difficult to retake it. And in IJ hands it provides a very easy route to Burma for Japanese troops.

I'm unclear how much supply Japan can effectively pull into and through the low mountains around Paoshan. I have tried to set up defenses in the Himalayas west of Chengtu, but Paoshan is the way I'd come if I were him. Can he operate and fight, say, 6-7 divisions at and past Paoshan towards Lashio?

Yes, he can. Takes a while to get supply here, but when it builds up and units are in the field, I've had no problems so far.

Iīm a bit intrigued by 2-day turns. Seems like many players doesnīt like the idea. Yet I have seen many that tried it and canīt consider anything else after that. I can see how it certainly presents some problems but I canīt help thinking how nice it would be to actually go twice as fast! It would certainly make it easier to actually complete the game within a reasonable timeframe without having to do a crazy amount of turns.

I've played a whole game untill 1945 using the 2-days-turns way against Rader... believe me: it's a whole new way of playin. Imagine how complicated is to manage a naval battle or a CVs operation in a two-days turn... It's fun anyway

I think most of the pros and cons apply to the naval pieces of the game more than Air or Land. The react rules are so infuriating sometimes. That said, the pace is tremendously appealling. I wish there were ways to have the 2-days but affect the execution in granular ways. But there aren't.

2. You should look up your reinforcement schedule and note what arrives in the redoubt. Then factor in the ramifications of having lost the arrival location.

Looked in Tracker at this. There are relatively few new LCUs onto the board for China in the out years. I don't recall any in 1942. Some in 1943, and some which arrive at bases already long gone to Japan. In the Paoshan and vicinity bases the numbers are only a handful--4-5. And some of those are three years from now. Still a good point for me to look at the queues more closely. And Paoshan in particular may be a good place to make a medium stand.

Strange day. Lots of sound and fury signifying . . . something? The hair on my neck is standing up a little.

1) Oh, my, the sub attacks! Oh, my, the lack of results! Six Allied attacks, from west of Tinian, to the Sea of Japan, to the Makassar Strait, to near Kwajalein. Bupkis. Dutch, American, misses, duds, the whole thing. BUT . . .

One attack, near Kwajalein. Hmm.

ASW attack near Kwajalein Island at 133,115

Japanese Ships DD Wakaba AO Toho Maru AO Kokuyo Maru

Allied Ships SS Triton SS Triton launches 2 torpedoes at DD Wakaba

AOs make any player sit up a little. More often than not we smell carriers. So I go smiffing around in the reports and see . . . "SS S-28 detects Japanese Torpedo Bomber at 138,118 near Maloelap" Holy correlation, Batman!

What if, let's just say, the second hit UNDERDOG's TF got, when the sub was seen by a Dauntless, was correctly interpreted by Mr. CV Admiral-san sititng at Truk as the first foray of the USN CVs since Pearl Harbor? That hit was post-dogleg, and showed a true course to the objective. A run there from Truk would be a full KB fuel-load, plus some for loiter.

Thin? Maybe. But that's how intel works. Pieces and parts. I have no hard "Intel" intel from the text file on CV movements, but that's not abnormal.

What to do? Right now the Cvs are in a 0-hex Follow of the landing force. The base force is in its own TF and ordered to stand off to the east. The Replenishment TF is far behind the carriers, at least three days. And it's only two carriers, not four. I have a couple of days to ponder and watch for hints. But it might be prudent to let the landing force go it alone. It's a regiment-plus, not a lot if they get jumped.

2) The IJN itself has 3-4 sub attacks with no hits either. The R-boat is back south of Singers in shallow water and is attacked by the good RN ASW boys. The French navy gets into the act off Sydney, hitting the duty I-boat twice for minor bruises.

3) Marys get another small xAKL at Singers. The bombing continues, the IJA 2E forces keep taking lumps. Japan does not attack. Forts go to 9% of 4. AV increases about 15 points.

4) A lot of action in the water just north of Ambon. A reinforcing landing of a Raiding unit begins; the CD roughs it up a good bit. Subs hit two TFs north but miss. At Kendari two very large xAP and AMC are unloading. (xAP Buenos Aires Maru, AMC Akagi Maru) These are division-carriers; Kendari is going to be a "feeder" base for lateral expansion in the southern DEI I think. Vindicators and Hudsons do their best to hurt these ships, but are ineffective at that range and with poor training. Several are lost.

5) Banshees hit Madang again in a Port strike after coastwatchers, drunk no doubt, report a ship in port for the Nth time. It's a "whiskey sighting." Banshees going away in a week or so, so they are risk-able. Still, coastwatchers, no T-shirts for you.

6) The only ground action is another Allied bombardment at Ambon, now on two IJA LCUs. Minor losses. I'm proud of the Ambon boys. They won't last much longer, but they gave some bloodly noses.

What to do? Right now the Cvs are in a 0-hex Follow of the landing force. The base force is in its own TF and ordered to stand off to the east. The Replenishment TF is far behind the carriers, at least three days. And it's only two carriers, not four. I have a couple of days to ponder and watch for hints. But it might be prudent to let the landing force go it alone. It's a regiment-plus, not a lot if they get jumped.

Simulation or reality?

Vice Admiral Fletcher decides to withdraw air cover for the landing force

"Towards evening on 8 August, Vice Admiral Fletcher decided to withdraw the three carriers, the battleship, six cruisers and sixteen destroyers from the vicinity of Guadalcanal. Despite Rear Admiral Turner's protest at Fletcher's withdrawal of air protection for the amphibious force, Vice Admiral Ghormley felt that he should not interfere. He appreciated that Fletcher's decision to withdraw the covering warships before all marines had been landed with their equipment on a hostile shore would leave the amphibious force without air cover and dangerously exposed, but he accepted Fletcher's explanation that there was an urgent need to retire and refuel the ships of his covering force.

Fletcher had received no reports of approaching Japanese naval ships from reconnaissance aircraft, and he took the decision to withdraw a large portion of his covering force in the belief that the landing force was under no immediate threat from the Japanese Navy. Fletcher's belief was based on communication failure and turned out to be ill founded. A powerful Japanese naval force, under the command of Vice Admiral Gunichi Mikawa, was steaming towards Guadalcanal at the very moment that Fletcher's aircraft carriers and their escort warships were withdrawing.

My best estimate is he could be in launch range in three days, more likely four. If he's coming.

I could pull the carriers back to five Follow, and still CAP the landing force. Or I could have everyone orbit to the east and try to wait him out, but I have no search over the objective. Or, I could send the carriers home, but the landing force has some cruisers I'd rather not lose. Or, I could send everyone home.

1) The CD at Ambon is neutered by response fire. More Raiding Regiment troops come ashore. The attack takes forts to 1, but the Dutch garrison holds again, and responds with a bombardment which can't be good for tired, wet men just off the boats.

If the pattern holds, this attack will pause for 1-2 days, then will succeed on the next try.

2) Japan begins landing at unoccupied Sorong. A good move to develop air power and recon in NG, and take the next step to secure the minor oil sources of the region.

3) I-157, also operating in shallow water south of Singers, takes out xAKL Tatung with gunfire as she returns from dropping a load at Singers. The RN ASW TF is north two hexes. It is bombed and strafed by Marys. No damage, one Mary destroyed.

4) Countless raids on Singers. Over a score of damaged bombers, about three destroyed. Marys also bomb the port, trying to get the other unloading xAKL, but miss it and/or target the ML nearby. The AA is very rough on Marys at 100 feet. Anns do a combo port/city attack, hit nothing. This is odd to me. City attacks on LI would make as much sense as going after end-use supplies at the airfield, and the Betty/Sally effort could do some damage to the LI if that trade-off were made. Anns won't.

5) Chinese and British bombers hit the air field at Chinag Mai in an effort to expand the operating theater. One Sally is destroyed and minor damage recorded. Won't make a habit of this. In a similar vein, the B-17s return to Brunei after almost two months and find little CAP. No damage, but I want Japan to think no base is safe until the Forts are pushed out of range.

6) Dud torpedoes in the Sea of Japan. Keep plugging. But this water is a Resource highway. Subs on the eastern side of Hokkaido have seen virtually no traffic.

7) 8 Hurricanes defend a 30 Oscar sweep at Palembang with no losses to either. The last two days Palembang has gotten in some fort building as the bombers have shifted to Singers.

8) Still considering UNDERDOG with a preference to moving the carriers back to Follow=5 as well as standing off to the east. I can replenish there perhaps easier than he can keep the KB to the east. What I wouldn't give for some search planes at Baker or Canton.