Public Advocate Holds 44-Point Edge Against Joe Lhota in Race for Mayor of New York

Democrat Bill de Blasio holds a commanding 44 percentage-point lead over Republican
Joe Lhota
in the race for New York City mayor, underscoring the GOP nominee's failure to gain any traction during the past three weeks, a poll from The Wall Street Journal-NBC 4 New York-Marist showed Thursday.

ENLARGE

Democratic nominee for New York Mayor Bill de Blasio speaks to the media following an appearance Tuesday.
Getty Images

ENLARGE

Mr. de Blasio, the city's public advocate, leads Mr. Lhota, a former deputy mayor and budget director in Rudy Giuliani's administration, 67% to 23% among likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot. None of the 13 other candidates on the Nov. 5 ballot has any significant support, and 7% of voters said they are undecided.

Fewer than one in 10 likely voters reported they might vote differently on Election Day, signaling the enormity of the challenge facing Mr. Lhota as he scrambles to persuade an electorate that appears poised to give the keys to Gracie Mansion to a Democrat for the first time in 20 years. The new mayor succeeds
Michael Bloomberg
on New Year's Day.

"It's about as lopsided as you can envision," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "Lhota is not a force at this point."

The poll raises questions about the effectiveness of Mr. Lhota's campaign because not much has changed since the last WSJ-NBC-Marist poll was released on Sept. 18, shortly after the primary. At that point, Mr. de Blasio was ahead by 43 percentage points.

Mr. Lhota has described Mr. de Blasio's lead as "extraordinary," likening it this week to the "Grand Canyon," but he has repeatedly predicted that his standing will improve once he has an opportunity to debate his opponent. The candidates have three scheduled debates, the first of which is on Tuesday.

The racial gap in the race is staggering. Among likely voters who are black, Mr. de Blasio leads Mr. Lhota, 89% to 4%, and among Latino voters he leads 76% to 14%. Among white likely voters, 57% support Mr. de Blasio, while 33% back Mr. Lhota.

Mr. de Blasio is leading in nearly every demographic, including among women (69% to 22%); men (65% to 24%); Catholics (61% to 31%); Jews (61% to 26%); and Protestants (77% to 14%). Mr. de Blasio leads in every borough in the city, with the narrowest margin being 39 percentage points in Queens and Staten Island.

The single demographic in which Mr. Lhota boasts a slight lead is white Catholics, with 47% backing him and 45% supporting Mr. de Blasio.

While Democrats outnumber Republicans by six to one in the city, the GOP mayoral nominee has won the last five races by attracting a significant number of Democratic voters and unaffiliated voters. The poll showed Mr. Lhota has the support of 13% of Democrats, compared with 82% for Mr. de Blasio. Among unaffiliated voters, Mr. de Blasio has the backing of 58%, compared with 21% for Mr. Lhota.

A spokesman for Mr. de Blasio declined to comment on the poll results. A spokeswoman for Mr. Lhota did not have an immediate comment.

The poll showed Mr. Lhota has a major image problem. Among registered voters, 43% said they have an unfavorable impression of him, 32% said they have a positive view and a quarter said they have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. Conversely, 65% of registered voters have a favorable impression of Mr. de Blasio, while 23% have an unfavorable one. The poll found 12% have never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

During the past few weeks, there was talk on the campaign trail about Mr. de Blasio's honeymoon in Cuba and his backing of the Sandinistas in Nicaragua. More than seven in 10 registered voters said those issues make no difference to them.

Mr. Lhota has sought to distance himself from Republicans in Washington, D.C., saying the shutdown of the federal government was a disgrace. But the poll showed 40% of registered voters think Mr. Lhota is not independent from the national GOP. Among those who believe his stance on issues is tethered to the national Republicans, 39% are less likely to support him.

Since the last poll three weeks ago, there has been a slight increase in the proportion of voters who say Mr. de Blasio would do a better job keeping crime down. The gap is now 52% to 31% in Mr. de Blasio's favor, compared with 44% to 35% in September.

Among registered voters, more than six in 10 voters believe Mr. de Blasio is better able to improve city schools, make the city more affordable and unite the city. The poll found 49% of voters believe Mr. de Blasio is better able to handle the city's finances, compared with 33% who believe Mr. Lhota is.

About two thirds of voters say they want the next mayor to move the city in a different direction from the Bloomberg era. Mr. de Blasio has long argued he offers the biggest break from the Bloomberg administration.

The poll of 1,305 adults—including 969 registered voters and 495 likely voters—was taken between Sunday and Tuesday. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for likely voters and plus or minus 3.1 percentage points for registered voters.

One has to wonder when the goose that lays the golden egg in NY decides to fly away. Wonder what millions of dead beat takers in NY will say if it turns out De Blasio is the one that finally guts and then kills that goose.

De Blasio will be the new Lindsey when people look back at his time as mayor. If you believe his campaign promises there is no doubt that the City's finances will suffer. But then again I will only be an observer as I moved out of NYC many years ago. It will be interesting if De Blasio chases more taxpaying New Yorkers out of the City.

I may move out if he is elected. What a joke and travesty that he is in such a commanding lead. God help us over-taxed souls who who work hard and live clean lives. He's a modern day, race bating Karl Marx. Wow!

Get ready New Yorkers! Bill DeBlasio is a true socialist who supported the brutal Communist Government of Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua during the late '80s. I have a brother in law who was severely tortured by one of Daniel's political thugs (Tomas Borge) for simply refusing to hand over his cattle ranch to the Sandinistas. Look for New York to become more like Detroit during the next decade.

Great! New York will finally end the great nightmare it has lived through, lo these many decades. They will soon enter a golden era of broad, sunlit uplands, leaving behind the rampant crime, chaotic finances and depression level economics of the last Republican terms.

Truth is, New York is bored. Well fed ennui has heralded some of the great inscrutable tumults of history. I predict they soon find their lives far more, um, interesting.

Every so often NYC needs to remind itself why left wing policies are terrible for the city. The last generation voted for Dinkins, then watched as crime soared and business declined. After 3 great mayors in a row, where crime has steadily declined and business has returned, the fools need to be reminded of what stupidity looks like. NYC has some of the world's most successful people. Unfortunately, they are a small minority and each only has 1 vote, as is the case with the majority, who vote for the most statist candidate they can find.

De Blasio has a lot of support from the Unions. He is a bit too liberal for me, and I tend to be moderate to liberal. NYC is basically a Democratic City and it is just returning back to its Democratic roots. I live in New York, but in suburbs.

The sad thing is that there are people who remember the Lindsey years with fondness. They recall it as being exciting, and that if things went wrong, it was the fault of those other groups who would not cooperate with Lindsey's vision. Since the bill did not come due immediately, and they have no conception of economics, they see de Blasio as the second coming.

This Clinton Democrat stuff is just some political tripe to win over the more moderate voters. Nothing in DeBlasio's background, or in his positions, says Clinton Democrat. He ran to the left of everyone else. He said to a group of businessmen that he was a fiscal conservative, but withdrew that almost immediately - sorry, I was only pandering. Raising taxes and expanding programs are not fiscal conservatism. He has the support of the unions, which means that he will give them the raises they want, and not ask for increases in health or retirement contributions.

Three (supposedly) Chinese curses, in increasing order of severity:1. May you live in interesting times. Translation: may your life become tumultous.2. May you come to the attention of powerful authorities. Modern trans: a politicized IRS or regulator will audit political enemies.3. May you find what you are looking for. NYC trans: deBlasio will demoralize the NYPD to appease his base, crime will soar, wealthy and investment will find flight to CT NJ and FL. NYC will become nostalgic for Big Gulp Bloomberg.

Indeed. Bloomberg was/is a flaming idiot, but with a string of strong, more conservative mayors, New Yorkers have enjoyed a much safer and better functioning city for the last several years. With a hard left turn, this guy will be a one-term wonder once New Yorkers see what they get...

{if you can't even win the full trust of lefties like 'The Paula Dowling Account', you know you're in for a ride...}

The problem is that de Blasio likely won't affect only NYC but also the entire tri-state region. The last thing holding the entire rotten edifice together is the financial industry, without whose revenue the finances of not only NYC but also the surrounding tax and spend regimes will crater. You might not like them but without finance, NYC is toast. I fear deBlasio stands a good chance of causing major rethinking among those companies about staying in NYC. I love NYC and hope I'm wrong but this guy is a dangerous demogogue.

I rarely use this term to describe someone from the left, but De Blasio is genuinely a Marxist. His assumption is that all he has to do is raise taxes and redistribute income, and life will be grand. Like most (all?) attempts to do this, it will fail, and will cost NY for decades. The productive don't continue to support the unproductive for long, and people who can leave typically do.

In addition, his arrogance will likely undermine any opportunity for compromise and negotiation.

Geez too liberal for you?? Geez.NYC is basically a democratic city?? Thats a bit of an understatement.....

1- die hard socialists who basically live off the entitlement housing and benefits or are somehow connected to the disability-poverty industrial complex.2- limousine liberals that want the middle class to pay for their hired help's benefits and healthcare and schools while sending own kids to private.3- young yupppies who know nothing and don't really have a vested interest in anything and vote democrat and pay taxes into the system until they realize they can't afford to raise a family and move to the suburbs.

I'm a center minded, leaning to the right a bit....and felt that Bloomberg's savvy, financial / pro-business mindset along with his strong stance on crime (stop and frisk) is what stopped our city from going down the tubes during the great economic recession from this past decade.

I don't agree with his stance on limiting soda drink size or his ban on cigar smoking in the Parks etc (petty stuff)......but on the big issues, he was quite good. He's done lots also with Governors Island renovation, watering down the power of the corrupt City Unions and lots of other good things that rarely get reported in mainstream press. I firmly believe that he will go down as one of our better mayors.

I loved Giuliani and agree with you that Republicans is what saved our city from continued downfall. God help us with De Blasio. He's a complete loser.

I agree with Steven. The people who vote for the Marxist will get what they deserve. The people who vote for the Republican will get much worse than they deserve. We should have more compassion, as we also hope for compassion for those of us who didn't vote for the Marxist President.

I'm a die-hard NY'r.....paid my taxes....lived a relatively clean life....worked hard....paid for my own education....and have worked in the financial / technology industry for over 34 years.

I totally agree with you that he is a Marxist who should not be given a chance to run this great City. We have had middle of the road Republicans in office since the early 90's.

I agree with everything you say except the comment "you get what you deserve". That sort of statement just gives the De Blasio's fodder for their canon and feeds into their small, mindedness. We are all Americans and having right smack in the middle of 9/11 including working right next to the Pit for seven years......I find your last comment mean spirited and small minded. Sorry guy.

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