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2014 Election Preview: New Mexico

The Land of Enchantment used to be a swing state, but in the Obama era it has taken strong turn towards the Democrats, who currently hold 2 out of 3 House seats and both Senate seats. However, Gov. Susanna Martinez (R) has shown the ability to govern in this hostile environment and she is a possible contender for the 2016 presidential election. But before that, she needs to win her reelection race in November. Here’s the situation:

Governor: Despite leading a state that voted heavily for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Governor Susanna Martinez (R) is in pretty good shape for reelection. Her Democratic rivals include NM Attorney General Gary King, State Sen. Linda Lopez, State Sen. Howie Morales, former Farm Service Agency head Lawrence Rael, and businessman Alan Webber. King is the favorite to win the nomination, but polls show him losing to Martinez in the November election. While according to pollster PPP the race has tightened, Martinez still has a solid fundraising advantage and I’d like to see more surveys before declaring this race competitive. Until then, this race remains Likely Republican.

Senate: Freshman Senator Tom Udall (D) is up for reelection and so far it looks like he’s good for another term. His two Republican rivals, former ADA David Clements and businessman Allen Weh, trail him by over 20 percentage points in last month’s PPP poll. Despite Gov. Martinez’s success New Mexico remains solidly Democratic and despite this year’s anti-Democrat environment, it doesn’t look like that’ll be enough to put Udall in serious danger. This race is Safe Democrat.