The independence referendum could go either way - we can't get complacent, says the minister leading the fight for the Union

THE LIBERAL Democrats' Scottish Secretary, Alistair Carmichael, says he and those championing the No vote can't take their consistent lead in the polls for granted as it's "a race that can still be lost."

Despite the No vote having a consistent lead in polls, he believes the SNP can repeat their performance in 2011 when the party came from behind and smashed electoral records with a landslide win.

Carmichael said: “We are not a million miles from that. Labour were wrong to be complacent and we’d be wrong to be complacent.”

The Scottish Secretary is due to brief the UK Cabinet on his worries on Tuesday with a hard message – “the result is not in the bag”.

According to a senior Whitehall source, Carmichael will “put the fear of God” into PM David Cameron.

In an interview at his office in Whitehall, Carmichael also said the high number of “don’t knows” in polling could vote Yes.

The Orkney and Shetland MP added: “It’s still a live debate and still quite possible opinions can change. With the enormous resources the SNP have, they could still win this.”

He went on: “One of the messages I will give to Cabinet next week is that this is a debate that has a long way to run and anything is possible at the end of it. Nobody should take the United Kingdom for granted.

“I want them to understand my concerns about the possibility of a Yes vote. They are genuine. I see this as a race that can still be lost.”

Carmichael said one of the biggest dangers was the “emotional” appeal of nationalism beating rational arguments against independence.

The UK government have released papers attacking SNP claims on currency, defence, pensions and the EU and Nato.

But he worries arguments of the heart could still win over don’t knows – and that those tempted to vote Yes for emotional reasons could make Scotland independent by accident.

He said: “If you know you shouldn’t do something but for an emotional reason you are going to do it anyway, then you won’t admit to pollsters what you are going to do.

“You’ll say you haven’t made your mind up, but know exactly what you are doing but won’t admit it because you are making a judgment that is emotional rather than intellectual.”

Carmichael also admitted the No camp needed to make an “emotional connection to being British”.

Using the London Olympics as an example, he said: “Remember Super Saturday with Greg Rutherford, Jessica Ennis and Mo Farah winning golds? Imagine how it would be if you didn’t have a stake in that?”