Synopsis

In The Pirates! Band of Misfits, Hugh Grant stars in his first animated role as the luxuriantly bearded Pirate Captain - a boundlessly enthusiastic, if somewhat less-than-successful, terror of the High Seas. With a rag-tag crew at his side, and seemingly blind to the impossible odds stacked against him, the Captain has one dream: to beat his bitter rivals Black Bellamy and Cutlass Liz to the much coveted Pirate Of The Year Award. It's a quest that takes our heroes from the shores of exotic Blood Island to the foggy streets of Victorian London. Along the way they battle a diabolical queen and team up with a haplessly smitten young scientist, but never lose sight of what a pirate loves best: adventure!

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Animated Feature Film, which is surprisingly competitive this year, especially compared to most years. There is a Pixar film nominated, but it isn't the overwhelming favorite. In fact, all five films have a legitimate shot at winning, although there are some with better chances than others.
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The Oscar nominations were announced this morning, and there's certainly a lot to talk about. There are some nominations that should surprise no one. For instance, Lincoln led the way with twelve nominations, and it has been seen as the major contender for a long time. However, there were also a few surprise nominations and some major snubs. Here are the list of nominations, and some reactions.
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There are only a few days left till Christmas and we are officially in the panic zone for gift shopping. This week we have our final installment of our annual Holiday Gift Guide. Part I dealt with first run releases, Part II dealt with TV on DVD releases, Part III dealt with limited releases, foreign titles, and classics. This week, we deal with some music, books, games, as well as releases from the first three parts that I forgot the first time around. As always, there are quite a few in that last category. (I also use this time to burn off some releases that arrived late. This way I can get through all of the late reviews quicker than normal and actually have enough time to celebrate Christmas.)
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There were a ton of new releases on this week's DVD sales chart with four in the top five and nine in the top eleven. We have a new number one release, The Lucky One, with 515,000 units sold and $7.70 million in revenue generated during its first week of release. This is a solid opening for a midlevel hit.
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We are clearly in TV on DVD season on the home market as there are five TV on DVD releases among the top six selling releases, with Battleship being the only first run release to break up the TV on DVD dominance. There are many such releases that are contenders for Pick of the Week: Boardwalk Empire: Season Two on Blu-ray, Homeland: Season One on Blu-ray, Once Upon a Time: Season One on Blu-ray, and The Walking Dead: Season Two on Blu-ray. However, in the end I went with The Pirates! Band of Misfits on 3D Combo Pack as the Pick of the Week. Meanwhile, Monsieur Lazhar on DVD or Blu-ray earns a rarely awarded Puck of the Week.
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The Pirates! Band of Misfits is the latest film from Aardman Animations, a studio that has created many wonderful films like the Wallace & Gromit franchise. However, only one film of theirs, Chicken Run, has reach $100 million domestically while this film barely made more than $30 million theatrically. It made more than $25 million in the U.K. alone, despite that market being five or six times smaller. So is the film "too British" to find an audience here? Or was it a matter of bad marketing? Or were the critics just too kind to the movie?
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Men in Black 3 held on extremely well during its second weekend of release on the international scene earning an easy first place with $78.67 million on 20,554 screens in 90 markets for a total of $275.17 million internationally. This is already more than Men in Black 2 made during its entire run. Worldwide the film has $386.25 million, which is higher than the high end of the film's reported budgets. It's on track to reach between $500 million and $600 million worldwide, which is enough to put it on track to earn a profit sometime on the film's home market run. Amazingly, the film actually held on well in China, where it was down less than 30% to $15.4 million on 5,200 screens over the weekend for a total of $51 million after two. Perhaps it will reach the century mark there. In Germany, it grew by 3% to $5.32 million on 742 screens over the weekend for a total of $13.44 million. It also grew by 3% in the U.K., but fell to third place with $4.69 million on 533 screens over the weekend for a total of $12.30 million after two. In Britain, it was the Jubilee Holiday, so that explains the growth.
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There is one wide release this week, Dark Shadows, plus a busy slate of limited releases. However, the only film most people are talking about is The Avengers. There is a chance that by the end of business this weekend, it will be the biggest hit of the year, overtaking The Hunger Games. Even if Dark Shadows makes $50 million over the weekend, it will be a mere footnote at the box office compared to The Avengers' sophomore stint. Dark Shadows probably won't match the combined openings of last year's two wide releases, Bridemaids and Priest 3D (about $41 million), but it could be close. However, since there are some that are predicting The Avengers will earn more than last year's top five earned (about $110 million), 2012 should easily walk away with the win.
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Expectations for The Avengers were high, record-breakingly high among some people. However, as high as they were, reality was higher. Records were not just broken, but destroyed beyond recognition. The overall box office was in the top five combined biggest weekends with $258 million, which was 134% higher than last weekend. 134%. It was 55% higher than the same weekend last year. Like I've said before, this kind of year-over-year change usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays. The victory erases all of the losses from April, and then some, giving 2012 a $500 million lead over 2011 at $3.58 billion to $3.08 billion. This is an amazing start for the summer and with with roughly 25 million people seeing movies this weekend, upcoming films got a ton of free publicity and added hype.
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If someone were to describe the box office this weekend in just one word, that one word would be, "Yuck". Only one of the four wide releases matched expectations, and that was the film that was expected to do the worst. Think Like a Man easily repeated on top of the chart, despite falling nearly 50%. The overall box office fell 18% from last weekend to $110 million, which was 30% lower than the same weekend last year. Declines like this usually only happen due to a misalignment in holidays. Year-to-date, 2012 is still ahead of 2011, but the lead has shrunk to 14% at $3.29 billion to $2.88 billion. Fortunately, The Avengers is on track to break records, so 2012 should get back to its winning ways very soon.
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This weekend's four new wide releases were no match for Think Like a Man, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, with the comedy's 46% weekend-to-weekend drop-off and $18 million gross still putting it almost $7 million ahead of the next-best finisher. That movie, The Pirates! Band of Misfits, also comes from the Sony stable, although it is projected to be very narrowly at the head of a pack of movies that will earn around $11 million, and could actually end up anywhere between second and fifth when the final numbers come in on Monday. The other movies in the hunt for the (not very) coveted runners-up position include new release The Five-Year Engagement and two returning films: The Lucky One and The Hunger Games (which will end the weekend with over $370 million).
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Titanic 3D had an insane second weekend on re-release on the international chart earning $98.90 million on 10,066 screens in 69 markets for totals of $157.15 million internationally and $201.87 million worldwide. Its complete total is now $2.04 billion, which is a stunning figure. The majority of the film's weekend haul came from China, where it broke records with $67 million, which broke Transformers: Dark of the Moon's record opening weekend in that market. The film remained in top spot in Russia with $3.15 million on 972 screens for a total of $10.34 million after two. Its total in the U.K. rose to $12.68 million after two weeks of release, including $2.87 million on 429 screens this past weekend. At this point, I can imagine studio heads looking at every film that earned more than $300 million and trying to figure out if they can be converted to 3D or not. If it only costs $18 million to convert a film and it can make $200 million worldwide, it's an easy way to make money. Of course, it's also an easy way to over-saturate the market to the point of no return.
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Wrath of the Titans is really struggling domestically, but it could mitigate some of the losses here with its box office numbers internationally. This weekend it added $42.1 million on 13,070 screens in 61 markets for a total of $151.6 million. Its best market of the weekend was Russia, where it earned $4.09 million on 1,116 screens over the weekend for a total of $19.55 million after two. It has yet to open in Japan, and if it can get to $300 million worldwide, it should break even very early in the film's home market run.
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In a reversal of what happened domestically, Wrath of the Titans won the race on the international chart with an estimated $78 million in 60 markets. This includes some powerhouse results, like $12.66 million on 1,164 screens in Russia, which is more than The Hunger Games has made in two weeks. However, Russia tends to reward fantasy films over most other genres. It also did very well in Mexico ($5.09 million on 1,494 screens) and in Brazil ($4.05 million on 517). On the other hand, it struggled in the U.K. placing second with $3.52 million 466 screens. That's a weaker opening than it had here, given the relative size of the two markets. With a production budget of $150 million, it will likely need close to $400 million to break even before the home market. Anything more than $300 million will be enough to cover expenses, eventually, but probably won't be enough to greenlight a third installment in the franchise.
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There's good news / bad news going forward into April. First the good news, aside from one week where we saw a minor dip, March was fantastic. There were a number of films beating expectations and the overall the month was even stronger than predicted. As of this weekend, the box office is now 20% higher than the same pace last year. The bad news? That winning streak will certainly come to an end in April. Last year, there was one film that reached $200 million, Fast Five, plus two others that reached $100 million, Hop and Rio. Granted, due to the shifting calendar, Hop is actually being compared to the last weekend in March, so this April only needs one $200 million hit and a $150 million hit to keep pace. But even so, there's almost no chance that will happen. In fact, there's a chance that we might not have one film topping $100 million this year. Only three films have a real shot at this milestone: American Reunion, Five-Year Engagement, and Titanic 3D. And quite frankly, only the first one has a 50/50 chance of getting there. We will likely see 2012 shed some of its lead over 2011, but it should still end the month with a solid year-over-year lead.
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Full financial estimates for this film, including domestic and international box office, video sales, video rentals, TV and ancillary revenue
are available through our research services. For more information, please contact us at research@the-numbers.com.