New Hampshire Primary Source covers breaking and behind-the-scenes news and analysis on the New Hampshire presidential primary and all things political in the Granite State. John DiStaso is the most experienced political writer in New Hampshire and has been writing a weekly column since 1982.

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HOW’D THEY DO? It was substantive, and at times combative. But for anyone just now beginning to tune into the Republican primary contest, Tuesday night’s debate was nothing if not informative.

The way we see it, Donald Trump did nothing to hurt his frontrunner status nationally or in New Hampshire. He may have actually helped himself among establishment-type Republicans with his latest promise not to run as an independent candidate if he does not win the nomination.

The real battle in the debate, as it seems to be overall in New Hampshire, was the jockeying among the others for the all-important position as the prime alternative to Trump.

The confrontation between Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio over immigration kept them in the forefront. Gov. Chris Christie was also strong, separating himself from the lawmakers on the stage with his “eyes glazing over” comment about Sen. Rand Paul and Rubio’s back-and-forth on immigration. And yes, Paul had his second consecutive good showing.

Jeb Bush (finally) had a strong debate, emerging as the only candidate on the stage with the courage to directly take on the frontrunner.

Throughout the campaign, several candidates have complained about Trump and his highly controversial comments, but Bush was the only candidate who tried to hold him accountable on the stage. The question is, did voters recognize it, and will they care?

Christie on Wednesday took the opposite tact, complimenting (opponents might say pandering to) Trump by telling talk show host Laura Ingraham that Trump “sounded like a serious candidate to me last night. Jeb and I must have been hearing a different debate.”

Carly Fiorina and Gov. John Kasich were victimized by a lack of debate “playing time,” as it were, while Ben Carson – well – let’s just say debating is not his strong suit.

DENNEHY’S GRADES. We’ve once again called on veteran Republican strategist Mike Dennehy, who has been uncommitted in the race since the exit of former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, for his independent analysis.

Dennehy’s take: Christie won.

Here’s how he put it:

Chris Christie: A-. “Christie was impressive and won the debate. He had the best line of the night with the “eyes glazing over” during the boring debate banter between the U.S. senators on the stage. He also did a very good job positioning himself as the chief executive who has had to make tough decisions. The question remains: Do voters want that experience?”

Donald Trump: B. “He did remarkably well until the second hour when he went after CNN. He sounded like a whiner. And he looked weak for the first time. He was on track to winning the debate until that point.”

Ted Cruz: B. “Cruz did well, got some good hits in on his opponents and looked solidly conservative. Then, he insisted on interrupting and had to be asked several times to adhere to the rules that he agreed to. He lost some ground with that behavior.”

Carly Fiorina: B. “No one has better answers than Carly Fiorina. She did a good job trying to position herself as the fighter for the voters who are tired of the political class in D.C. But she simply did not get as much air time as the others.

Rand Paul: B. “For the second debate in a row, Rand Paul had a very good debate. But he isn’t able to connect with people. He doesn’t have any real life stories that help connect him to voters, and his personality is cold. That will continue to hold him back.”

Marco Rubio: B -. “Rubio performed well, which is customary for him, but Cruz and Paul laid some major punches on immigration. Rubio will never win a war with Ted Cruz on immigration and he should stop trying. He is looking more and more like the establishment candidate.”

Jeb Bush: C+. “He was feisty and did quite well. He would have done better if he were able to control himself as he was getting attacked by Trump. It is so obvious from his reaction and body language that Trump gets so far under Jeb’s skin that he gets flustered.”

John Kasich: C. “Kasich didn’t get much air time, but when he did, he was selling the bipartisan message. He very clearly is making a play for the left of center vote and left-leaning independents. Not a winning strategy for the Republican nomination.”

Ben Carson: D. “Inconsequential”

WILL THEY ATTACK? The Democrats will debate on Saturday at Saint Anselm College, and we wonder: Will there be any fireworks at all? That’s doubtful.

Bernie Sanders is leading in the Granite State, but as last week’s WMUR/CNN poll showed, virtually six in 10 likely Democratic primary voters believe that Hillary Clinton will win the primary and seven in 10 view her as the Democratic candidate who is most likely to win the general election. On the other hand, several other polls have shown Sanders polling stronger against the Republicans than Clinton.

We’re looking for a sharper debate than in the past, but nothing that will remotely compare with the Tuesday night and previous Republican rumbles. There seems to be no appetite on the Democratic side for a battle.

For Sanders, the challenge is to continue to build voter confidence that he can be a strong nominee and president, rather than the leader of a movement. For Clinton, the pressure is starting to mount that despite her many visits to the state and many months of organizing, she continues to trail here.

Although Clinton continues to lead in Iowa and nationally, a loss for her in the Granite State, where she has been campaigning on and off for 25 years, will be a huge blow to any hope by her backers that she will wrap up the nomination early in the process.

Former state Sen. Burt Cohen, a Sanders supporter, said Sanders needs to show that he is capable of being a strong commander-in-chief.

Cohen said Republicans are not the only ones concerned by the recent terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino. Democrats are worried, too, he said. But, he said, Donald Trump has “manipulated the fear in the country, and that is something that really can take a toll on our traditional freedoms, and people care very much about that.”

“Hillary’s hawkishness is no secret and people are rightly concerned about that. We don’t want to feed into ISIS. Trump is doing that and giving them what they want. The economy remains Bernie’s strength, but at the moment, people want to hear more about foreign policy,” Cohen said.

Two other top Sanders supporters, former Executive Councilor Dudley Dudley and former New Hampshire AFL-CIO president Mark MacKenzie said Sanders does not have to change anything on Saturday.

Dudley said she is looking for “consistency and for him to carry on espousing the views that he has been espousing for decades, which turned out to be right. It is courageous to be so persistent and consistent.”

Dudley is also looking for Sanders to differentiate himself from Clinton on climate change and to say “how the talks in Paris did not go far enough.”

Dudley is less concerned about Sanders’ need to convince Democrats that he is electable in a general election. She said he has already done that.

MacKenzie said Sanders is “a gentleman” and won’t attack Clinton.

“I think he should just stay the course and be who he is,” MacKenzie said. “People have to acknowledge that he has dragged Hillary Clinton to a place that she would never had been had it not been for his campaign. She is talking about the things that are important to working people and making commitments on those issues.”

Democratic National Committeewoman Kathy Sullivan, a Clinton supporter, does not believe the former secretary of state will change her approach.

“She will continue to talk about the things that matter to everyday voters,” Sullivan said. “The things that keep people awake at night. I don’t think she will go after another Democratic candidate. I think she will remain focused on her policies and proposals.”

THE LAST PRIMARY? Don’t look now, but in less than a month, the defense of the first-in-the-nation status of New Hampshire’s primary will begin in Charleston, South Carolina.

The Republican National Committee will hold its winter meeting Jan. 13-16. The party’s rules committee will meet, and RNC members will be free to bring up the proposed party rules that will ultimately be considered and receive final approval from the 2,135 delegates to the Republican National Convention in that same city in July.

Will there be a proposal brought forward in mid-January to eliminate the leadoff status of the primary?

New Hampshire RNC member Steve Duprey, a former four-time chairman of the state Republican Party, has been watching closely. His vigilance has become more focused since RNC chairman Reince Priebus said in September he no longer believed there should be any “sacred cows as to the primary process or the order” – essentially throwing his support behind the notion of dissing, or dumping, New Hampshire and the other early states.

“It’s just something we ought to look at as a party,” Priebus said, adding, “But I don’t think anyone should get too comfortable.”

Last summer, Texas Republican Party Chairman Tom Mechler tried to introduce a resolution that would have eliminated the 2016 early “carve outs” for Iowa, New Hampshire South Carolina and Nevada. The measure was not recognized, and as a result, those are the only four states currently allowed under RNC rules to hold their nominating contests prior to March 1, 2016.

But conventional wisdom within the party is that about one-third of the 168 RNC members are hostile toward New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada always holding early contests, about one-third support the current process and one-third are ambivalent.

The question is, will the RNC take up the 2020 nominating schedule – and proposals recommending that New Hampshire and the other early states lose their early positions – in less than a month, at the height of the primary frenzy?

Duprey says he simply does not know at this point. Rules proposals have not yet been submitted.

While a state law ensures that the New Hampshire primary will be held at least seven days ahead of any similar election, the political parties control the allocation of delegates. And the Republican Party in the current cycle has promised to punish any state that jumps ahead of the current calendar by withholding 90 percent of its national convention delegates. The Democratic Party in the current cycle would withhold 50 percent of the delegates of any rogue state.

The party could also exert other pressures to keep candidates out of states that do not follow the RNC’s schedule, such as banning them from debates.

That includes preventing candidates from putting their names on the New Hampshire ballot, if the state tried to go forward with an unauthorized primary, by providing that any candidate who does so forfeits all delegates, earned nationally, not just in New Hampshire. It's known in RNC circles as the "nuclear option."

As part of Duprey’s personal “protect the primary” effort, he will, as he has in past cycles, host at least 10 members of the RNC who are skeptical or undecided about the primary from Feb. 6 to 9. He is organizing hotel and dining arrangements for them – and is paying for them out of his own pocket. He is renting SUVs and sending them to three days of worth of candidates’ events.

The idea, he said, is to show them how it’s done in New Hampshire and why the state should not lose its leadoff status.

THE TRUMP FACTOR. Will Trump unwittingly fuel efforts to “undo” the New Hampshire primary?

Two decades ago, when Patrick Buchanan won the 1996 New Hampshire Primary by a single percentage point over Bob Dole, the fallout against the state was intense. It was the second consecutive primary in which Buchanan had upset the establishment apple cart.

Four years earlier, Buchanan received almost 40 percent of the vote against sitting President George H.W. Bush, weakening the incumbent, and, many say, sending him on his way to a general election loss to Bill Clinton.

The primary was under attack for the next several years, but survived, thanks to a bipartisan effort of leaders of both parties, including Duprey.

If Trump wins the 2016 primary, will it weaken the case of Duprey and other state GOP leaders that the NH primary should maintain its first-in-the-nation status? That remains to be seen, but you can bet there are few, if any, Trump supporters in the RNC establishment.

Still, as one top Republican pointed out, if someone wants to “blame” New Hampshire for Trump’s success, there is plenty of blame to go around.“He is,” this Republican noted, “leading just about everywhere. And besides, what honestly could be done? If they did anything, it would just feed into the passion for Trump.”

25 MORE FOR RAND. Rand Paul will be endorsed Thursday by 25 Republican activists, bring the number of its New Hampshire “ground troops” to 425.

Campaign senior adviser Mike Biundo said: “With 425 endorsements, Rand Paul continues to pick up steam in the Granite State. This adds to Tuesday's momentous debate performance where Rand commanded the stage, drew stark contrasts and showed clarity on foreign policy. Rand proved he's the only candidate willing to hold the line on all spending. There's one true fiscal conservative in this race. That's Rand Paul."

CHRISTIE BUS TOUR. On the heels of a string of key New Hampshire endorsements, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on Saturday will begin a four-day bus tour and will be joined by two governors who are backing his candidacy.

Govs. Paul LePage of Maine and Bob Hogan of Maryland will be along for part of the ride.

Christie will begin the tour on Saturday at 11 a.m. at Al’s Automotive, Exeter. The bus will then head to Derry, where Christie and LePage will visit The Halligan Tavern at 1:15 p.m. They will then go to Nashua for a town hall at the Lurgio Middle School at 5 p.m.

On Sunday, Christie and Hogan will visit Billy’s Sports Bar, Manchester, at noon, and then hold a town hall meeting at the Peterborough Town House at 5 p.m.

Christie on Monday at 9 a.m. will visit the Hollis Pharmacy and General Store, and at 2 p.m. will hold a veterans town hall at the Pelham Veterans of Foreign Wars Post. He will hold another town hall meeting at the Whipple Memorial Town Hall in New London at 6 p.m.

On Tuesday, Dec. 22, Christie’s bus will head to the Seacoast for events that have yet to be announced.

Christie, by the way, has emailed his New Jersey supporters asking them to come to New Hampshire for “a weekend of voter contact.”

“Transportation, accommodations, and food will be provided by the campaign and there is no cost to join,” the campaign wrote. “We look forward to an incredible weekend together.”

CARSON RETURNS. Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson will make his first visit to New Hampshire in exactly a month on Sunday and Monday. Carson has scheduled five stops, including two town hall meetings at local colleges.

Carson on Sunday will hold town halls at Keene State College at 1 p.m. and Nashua Community College at 4:15 p.m.

On Monday at 10 a.m., Carson will speak at a national security forum hosted by the nonprofit Americans for Peace, Prosperity and Security at the University of New Hampshire’s Manchester campus, followed by a tour of the Dyn company, Manchester, at 12:30 p.m.

At 7 p.m., Carson and his wife, Candy, will host a “Christmas Celebration” at the Capitol Center for the Arts in Concord, featuring music by Candy Carson and several local artists.

BUSH PUSH: THREE DAYS, 8 TOWN HALLS. The Bush push is on. We reported in our weekly “Look Ahead” on Monday that Jeb Bush will return to the state on Saturday to hold four town halls in a single day.

(Update: Bush had originally planned five town halls on Saturday but postponed a town hall in Dover out of respect for the family of fallen U.S. Army Ranger Cpl. Andrew Aimesbury, whose funeral is set for Saturday at 11 a.m.)

The Bush campaign told us on Wednesday that he will return on Monday for a town hall at the Alton American Legion Post 72 at 6 p.m. On Tuesday, he will hold town halls at the White Mountains Community College in Berlin at 1:30 p.m. and the Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 816 in Littleton at 6 p.m.

60 FOR #50BY30. Ahead of Saturday’s Democratic debate, the progressive nonprofit NextGen Climate New Hampshire will unveil the names of more than 60 New Hampshire state officials and grassroots leaders who have signed onto its “#50by30” pledge, supporting the goal of moving the country to at least 50 percent clean, renewable energy by 2030.

The list includes all 10 Democratic state senators, executive councilors Colin Van Ostern and Chris Pappas and most of the Democratic leaders of the state House.

The group cited a study by Virginia-based ICF International that showed moving to clean energy will create 8,000 new jobs in New Hampshire by 2030 and an additional 15,000 new jobs by 2050.

"All three Democratic presidential candidates have produced detailed plans to transition to a clean energy economy,” NextGen Climate New Hampshire state director Mike Padmore said. “Now, it's time for them to debate the merits of each plan, and Saturday night’s debate is a perfect opportunity.”

To view all 60 officials and activists who support the program, click here.

GRAHAM SIGNS ON. Lindsey Graham is the latest presidential candidate to agree to appear at the state Republican Party’s First-in-the-Nation Town Hall on Jan. 23 at the Radisson Hotel in Nashua, joining Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul and Rick Santorum.

Graham said in a statement: "I am looking forward to participating in yet another town hall meeting in New Hampshire. The Granite State plays a unique and critical role in determining the person best suited to become president. My message of keeping American secure through strength has become a mantra for Republicans because of the forum the first-in-the-nation primary has offered me."

78 FOR CLINTON. Hillary Clinton’s campaign on Monday rolled out the names of 78 New Hampshire House members who are endorsing her. For a look at the names, click here.

CONSERVATIVE OF THE YEAR. The conservative advocacy group Americans for Prosperity on Tuesday named Tom Thomson of Orford its 2015 “Conservative of the Year.” AFP-NH state director Greg Moore said Thomson, who is the group’s honorary chairman, “a giant in leading the conservative reform and the fight for lower taxes for years. There was simply no more worthy choice.”

Thomson, the son of the late Gov. Meldrim Thomson, has been the leading advocate of the traditional “Pledge” against broadbased sales or income taxes, originated by his father.

The group also released its 2014 legislative agenda, which includes ending Medicaid Expansion, eliminating the state Certificate of Need board, reforming tax laws that affect limited liability corporations and rebating renewable portfolio standard funds to ratepayers.

REISCHE FOR CONNOLLY. Democratic candidate for governor Mark Connolly has been rolling out an endorsement a day lately. His latest backer is well-respected longtime activist Alan Reische, the former campaign finance chairman for Govs. Maggie Hassan and John Lynch.

FIRE FIGHTERS FOR ANDRU. Democratic District 2 Executive Council candidate Andru Volinsky picked up his first major endorsement on Wednesday. The Professional Fire Fighters of New Hampshire backed him as “a strong voice for fire fighters and paramedics in our state.” Union president David Lang said that as an executive councilor, Volinsky “will bring passion and vision” to the post and will be “a strong supporter of public safety."

RICE CONFIRMED. Attorney Emily Gray Rice of the Bernstein Shur firm on Tuesday night was unanimously confirmed by the U.S. Senate as the U.S. Attorney for New Hampshire.

U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who had recommended her nomination, said, “Her credentials ensured that her nomination was considered by the Senate quickly and without controversy.”

U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte also praised Rice as “a respected attorney with a long history of leadership in the New Hampshire Bar.”

POLITICS AND POLLING. The political website Real Clear Politics is hosting the first segment of a three-part series on politics and polling Thursday night at the Radisson Hotel in downtown Manchester from 6 to 8 p.m.

Entitled “Powering the Road to 2016,” the discussion will feature state leaders, policy analysis and pollsters as well as journalists discussing survey data and how policy issues, such as energy and immigration, are driving the political debate.

The event will be moderated by Carl Cannon, Washington Bureau Chief of Real Clear Politics. Among the guests will be Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas, U.S. Rep. Frank Guinta, state Senate Majority Leader Jeb Bradley, Republican National Committeewoman Juliana Bergeron and Democratic National Committeeman Bill Shaheen.

LAMBERT DISAPPOINTED. Gary Lambert, a former state senator, congressional candidate and retired Colonel in the U.S. Marine Reserves, has written to Gov. Maggie Hassan asking for an explanation of her absence from the New Hampshire Air National Guard’s holiday event.

As we wrote last week, a spokesman for the governor said it was an “inadvertent error” that she did not attend. The governor’s office informed the chiefs of staff for the state Senate and New Hampshire House that she was out of state from the date of the event, Dec. 6, through Dec. 8.

Lambert said the stated reason “does not stand up to basic scrutiny” because “this an event that your staff must have heard about well in advance.”

Lambert called the decision “shameful” and requested that the governor office make public “all correspondence your office has had with the New Hampshire Air National Guard regarding your invitation to the holiday event.”

(Thursday evening, Dec. 17, update)

The governor’s office on Thursday responded to Lambert with a letter written by legal counsel Mary Ann Dempsey.

“While I understand your disappointment that the governor did not attend this particular event,” she wrote, “please know that the governor attends as many National Guard events as possible and recognizes the important of supporting our service men and women and their families throughout the entire year. The governor was in-state the morning of the holiday event, but as a result of an inadvertent error, the event was declined and did not make it onto the governor’s schedule.”

The Hassan campaign told New Hampshire Primary Source that Hassan attended a Democratic Governors Association event in New York City the evening of Sunday, Dec. 6, but confirmed there was no conflict earlier in the day with the Guard holiday party.

Hassan also held campaign fundraisers in New York on Monday and Tuesday, Dec. 7 and 8, the campaign said.

There were also campaign fundraisers in NYC Mon and Tues which will all be released in our regular end of month travel letter.

One of several emails released by the governor’s office shows that on Dec. 1, her director of scheduling, Alexis Gipson, told the Guard’s Lt. Col. William Davis that Hassan “has a commitment in a different part of the state which will conflict, and, unfortunately, I will not be able to move or cancel that commitment.”

Gipson said a letter would be sent to the event on behalf of the governor.

Meanwhile, Thursday, the Hassan campaign released a comment from former state Rep. and Lt. Col. David Huot, a retired New Hampshire Air National Guard officer.

Huot said Hassan “has a long record of fighting to maintain our obligations to our service members, veterans, and their families, and she is a strong commander-in-chief of the New Hampshire National Guard. As a veteran of the Air National Guard, I'm extremely disappointed to see the Guard's holiday event turned into a political football with these blatantly partisan attacks clearly engineered by Kelly Ayotte's allies. I urge Sen. Ayotte to tell the New Hampshire Republicans to stop using the New Hampshire National Guard as a way of scoring cheap political points."

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY VAULT. Check out WMUR political reporters Adam Sexton’s great series of “look backs” at past New Hampshire primaries by clicking here to go to his New Hampshire Primary Vault page on WMUR.com. This week’s featured spot focuses on Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign with former Obama state co-chairman Ned Helms.