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Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure (FUMAPEX ) Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure (FUMAPEX ) Alexander Baklanov, Danish Meteorological Institute, and the FUMAPEX consortium Workshop on Real time air pollution data exchange and forecast in Europe EEA, Copenhagen, 7-8 April 2005

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METEOROLOGICAL ADVANCES AND SYSTEMS FOR URBAN AIR QUALITY FORECASTING Modern numerical weather prediction (NWP) and meso- meteorological models (MetM) able to resolve urban-scale processes are considered to be the main tools in future urban air pollution (UAP) forecasting because they allow for sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution and can trace back the linkages between sources and impacts. Improved urban meteorology and suggested nesting MetM-UAP integrated strategy are discussed. This work is realised as a part of the activities within the EC FUMAPEX project.

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Two levels of the integration strategy: Off-line integration of Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure models for urban air pollution forecast and emergency preparedness, which is the FUMAPEX aim. On-line integration of meso-scale meteorological models and atmospheric aerosol & chemical transport models (CTM) with consideration of the feedbacks of air pollution (e.g. urban aerosols) on meteorological processes and urban climate. This direction is developed at DMI and considered in the new COST Action 728. This will lead to a new generation of models for chemical weather forecasting.

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5FP EC project FUMAPEX: Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure 22 teams from 10 European countries are involved Project objectives: (i) the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, (ii) the connection of NWP models to urban air quality (UAQ) and population exposure (PE) models, (iii) the building of improved Urban Air Quality Information and Forecasting Systems (UAQIFS), and (iv) their application in cities in various European climates. http://fumapex.dmi.dk

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Extended FUMAPEX scheme of the UAQIFS including feedbacks Improvements of meteorological forecasts (NWP) in urban areas, interfaces and integration with UAP and population exposure models following the off-line or on-line integration

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Why we need to build the European integration strategy? European mesoscale MetM/NWP communities: ECMWF HIRLAM COSMO ALADIN/AROME UM --------- WRF MM5 RAMS European CTM/ADMs: a big number problem oriented not harmonised (??) ….. NWP models are not primarily developed for CTM/ADMs and there is no tradition for strong co-operation between the groups for meso/local-scale the conventional concepts of meso- and urban-scale AQ forecasting need revision along the lines of integration of MetM and CTM US example (The models 3, WRF-Chem) A number of European models … A universal modelling system (like ECMWF in EU or WRF-Chem in US) ??? an open integrated system with fixed architecture (module interface structure)