More talks on Iran to start in Istanbul

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attends a Security Council meeting regarding the situation in the Middle East at United Nations Headquarters, Monday, March 12, 2012. Source: AP

Discussions between Iran and members of the UN Security Council are set to begin again. Is there any indication things will change this time around?

The next round of talks between Iran and the permanent members
of the UN Security Council plus Germany, the "P5+1" are scheduled to
take place on April 14 in Istanbul. The parties are already publicly
formulating their negotiating positions.

"Iran must fulfill its international obligations, including
the complete suspension of uranium enrichment as per multiple UN Security
Council resolutions," said White House Press Secretary Jay Carney. He
continued: "The regime in Tehran must take the verifiable decision to
forgo pursuit of a nuclear weapon."

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has already outlined the
steps that Iran could take to prove the peaceful nature of its nuclear program.
These include removing all highly enriched uranium from the country, halting
enrichment above the level of 20%, and opening up its nuclear facilities to the
IAEA for inspection.

Moscow’s view is similar, but not identical.

Last week Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the
approach adopted by the P5+1 several years ago implies that as soon as Iran
convinces all parties of its exclusively peaceful intentions through IAEA
verification, it will be vested with all the rights of a nuclear member of the
IAEA. He added that in such case all sanctions on Iran should be lifted.

Naturally, Moscow is opposed to Iran becoming a nuclear power
and would like to see proof that it is not seeking to do so. However, it
acknowledges Iran's right to conduct nuclear research in accordance with IAEA
rules. In this context, enrichment could be carried out under the supervision
of international inspectors. But Moscow has made clear its view that sanctions
on Iran have been exhausted, and that any potential strike against Iran would
be blocked by the UN Security Council. Its position is shared by Beijing.

Meanwhile, Tehran has announced its terms of compromise. In the
words of Fereydoon Abbasi, director of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization,
Tehran may halt uranium enrichment at 20 percent after it accumulates
sufficient fuel for its nuclear reactors. "As soon as we obtain the amount
of fuel we need, we will stop producing it and may even start enriching only to
a level of 3.5 percent," Abbasi said. At the same time, he stressed that
the West's demand for an immediate halt to all uranium enrichment was out of
the question.

It should be kept in mind that over the years Iran has acquired
around 2,000 tons of 20 percent enriched uranium from Argentina. This uranium
was used both for research purposes and for radiation therapy (the country has
roughly 800,000 cancer patients).

Iran's position is laid out in further detail in an article for
the Boston
Globe by
Hussein Mousavian, Tehran's former chief negotiator in nuclear matters. In Mousavian’s
opinion, a breakthrough in the nine-year talks can only be achieved by
acknowledging Iran's "lawful right to a nuclear program" and waiving
the demand for a suspension of uranium enrichment. For their part, the
"mediators" should receive an absolute guarantee that Iran is not
pursuing a nuclear weapon and an opportunity to "clarify ambiguities in
its nuclear program in accordance with the requirements of the International
Atomic Energy Agency."

"It is already too late to demand that Iran cease its
enrichment program," writes Mousavian, "because it mastered the
technology and reached breakout capability in 2002, and continues to improve
its work in this field."

Given that Mousavian has also stated that sanctions against
Tehran and attempts to change the regime should be stopped, it can be assumed
that this article in an influential American newspaper was not the impromptu
act of a retired diplomat. By recognizing Iran's right to enrich uranium in
exchange for wider inspections, the six-nation group could reach a compromise.
But to achieve this will require more than just another round of talks.

"The meeting has been preceded by an unprecedented flaring of
tempers, and clearly the first task is for all sides to cool off. Obama is
obviously keen to avert another war. Tehran, too, has no interest in further
aggravating the standoff," said Gennady Evstafiev, a veteran of Russian's
Foreign Intelligence Service, with knowledge of the problems of
non-proliferation. "The summit in Istanbul could see a positive
result."