Good Wednesday, folks. It’s another gorgeous, albeit chillier, weather day taking shape across the bluegrass state. This stuff is about to be replaced by some ugly weather as a couple of systems roll across the state late this week through the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

Temps out there today will generally be in the low and middle 50s for highs as skies stay very nice. A few high clouds will move in this afternoon and those are streaming well ahead of our big storm system for the end of the week.

The remnants of a Pacific hurricane are crossing Mexico and will move into Texas later tonight. From there, this storm comes together and moves through the deep south. From there, the storm turns the corner and up the east coast on Friday. That puts Kentucky in the windy and chilly sector of the storm, with plenty of rain.

The NAM shows this massive system very well…

Gusty winds and chilly temps will accompany the rains. Highs on Friday may stay in the 40s…

Once that system moves to our northeast, another potent system dives in from the northwest and keeps rounds of chilly showers cranking this weekend into early next week…

That’s some ugly weather for our part of the world, but that’s to be expected with such a major amplification of the jet stream…

I will hook you up with another update or two later today. Make it a good one and take care.

I think us more eastern and southeasthern folks could have a lot more snow this winter for sure and may even be more favored for above average season than others farther west and north on here. What are your thoughts so far Jimbo? I know you love snow and we were very cheated last year!

All the models, even the great Euro, are in agreement it stays on the coast. When all models agree then confidence is pretty high on what it’s going to do. It’s only three days out and that’s when models are pretty accurate.

The climate prediction has us and the eastern part of US in a cold ridge for the most part of winter and the west will be above average temp wise. This what Chris has been talking about the last few weeks he was seeing the same thing in which favors more snow chances here in the Ohio valley. Have a good day!

That trough over the northeast seems to be blocked by a high pressure to the east in the north Atlantic. And a ridge is developing in the central plains. The Ohio Valley is on the eastern edge of the western ridge. This is a perfect set up for a major storm along the east coast or inland or wherever. I read this off just looking at the twelve hour water vapor loop and studying the Ventusky temperature and wind currents at all levels of the atmosphere. Not weather models.

Looking at some of the early winter forecasts most forecasters are making there predictions on a weak-El-Nino central based or basin wide with low solar activity with Storm tracks to the south riding up the east coast..Sounds good for Ky if we can get the cold air..Looking at some of the data i would guess Ky is on the fence when it comes to El-Nino’s..Of course a weak El-Nino central based would favor Ky one would think..I’m guessing this is the year somebody in the lower Ohio valley or Tenn. valley receives 1 major ice storm..Just a guess but will be interesting to see how a weak El-Nino central based plays out..

ENSO hasn’t shown up yet at this time. We are still in an ENSO-neutral phase. The same phase we were in late past winter and that awful spring we had and the crappy summer we just experience. Right now though it’s a nice Autumn day and the foliage is beginning to get pretty.

There are El Nino conditions that are present. In order for there to be an El Nino that is no longer neutral, according to the Oceanic Nino Index, it takes 5 consecutive 3-month overlapping averages of SST’s at least 0.5 degrees Celsius. Last week’s departure from average was 0.9″ Celsius in the Nino 3.4 regikon