Pages

Thursday, April 6, 2017

'Something should happen'

Few notes on the latest developments concerning Trump Administration's policy on Syria

Some serious strikes will take
place against the Assad regime soon in order to signal that Trump is serious about
Syria and that he is different from his predecessor and will respond
differently when he is challenged. Trump needs to send a strong message in this
regard, because the North Koreans, Iranian and the Russians are watching closely.

The “something” that “should happen," to borrow Trump's own words, will have to be serious enough to curtail Assad’s ability to launch new
airstrikes or major military operations against the rebels. If the Administration
wants the regime to start taking peace talks seriously, its ability to launch
major offensives must be curtailed. Still, the operations at this stage will
not be meant to undermine the stability of the regime.

On the political level, talks
will be held with the Russians and other international player over the next few
weeks to revamp and intensify ongoing peace-talks. The administration and its allies
will insist on Assad’s eventual departure, but contrary to speculations and
assertions, the removal of Assad does not amount to regime change. Also, the different
international and regional parties will now have to agree on how to move forward
with the fight against ISIS and on what Syria will look like post-Assad.

Framing the situation in terms of
regime change is neither accurate nor helpful at this stage, and will give
anti-war movement as well as the Russians, the Iranians and other regime-supporters
fodder for their campaign to waylay the administration’s plans. This is about bringing
peace to Syria and about ending the suffering of the Syrian people – a step
that clearly requires the removal of the “few bad hombres” who are responsible
for it. That these “bad hombres” should include Assad and some of his adviser and generals
and not only the heads of ISIS and Al-Qaeda should not come as a surprise to
anyone. After all, the former bear responsibility for the overwhelming majority
of death and destruction in Syria.

Getting the Russians on board this
scenario will not be easy; Obama was not able to do it, not that he pursued as seriously
as he needed to. Still, a Russian OK, no matter how reluctant, is not impossible
to obtain. The Russians might be willing to show more flexibility at this stage
in regard to Syria realizing that this might translate into future American flexibility
in regard to the situation in Ukraine and could lead to an easing if not downright
removal of sanctions. Indeed, if the Russians want Trump to be able to deliver
on these issues, they cannot allow him to fail on a test that he has now
embraced so publicly and forcefully. The situation in Syria now has become a
test of the credibility and character of both Putin and Trump. If Putin cannot work
with Trump to resolve this conflict, after the latter spent the last few months
sending him a billion positive signals at tremendous and continuingly increasing
political cost at home, then, the message Putin will be sending to American
officials of all stripes and standings is that he is not a person with whom one
can do any business, and that he is indeed engaged in warfare against America.

Be that as it may, Trump has
transformed the conflict in Syria into a test of his leadership and resolve in
particular, and he seems to have done so willfully. This might be a cynical exercise
of wagging the dog in an attempt to put the Russia Scandal and all controversies
surrounding his business interests and nepotism behind him. But that’s exactly
why he would need to show results, and soon. This situation cannot be handled
in the same way the wiretapping accusations against Obama and the leak accusations
against Rice were. Mere noise will not be sufficient here. The stakes are very
high, he himself made sure that they are, and has left himself little wiggle room
in this regard. Failure to produce results will cost Mr. Trump many valuable
allies at home and abroad, ensuring that all investigations into his affairs
will be pursued with greater vigor and more bipartisan support.

Go ahead, patronize me!

About Ammar

I am a Syrian-American Author and Blogger, and I currently work as a political analyst at Alhurra. The Delirica is a blog that relates my personal views and takes on current developments which do not necessarily reflect those espoused by any institution with which I am affiliated. My most recent publication is titled “The Irreverent Activist” and is available on Amazon.

The Delirica

Throughout the years, I have operated a variety of political, intellectual and artistic blogs in both Arabic and English. However, I am currently relying on The Delirica as my main personal online outlet for political analysis in English. All my previous online writings in English can be accessed at Ammar.World, The Daily Digest of Global Delirium and related sites. Arabic readers should refer to Hartaqah.