Peace plans reduced

Tuesday

Oct 2, 2012 at 12:01 AMOct 2, 2012 at 11:22 AM

KABUL, Afghanistan - With the surge of U.S. troops over and the Taliban still a potent threat, U.S. generals and civilian officials acknowledge that they have all but written off what was once one of the cornerstones of their strategy to end the war here: battering the Taliban into a peace deal.

KABUL, Afghanistan — With the surge of U.S. troops over and the Taliban still a potent threat, U.S. generals and civilian officials acknowledge that they have all but written off what was once one of the cornerstones of their strategy to end the war here: battering the Taliban into a peace deal.

The once-ambitious U.S. plans for ending the war are being replaced by the far more modest goal of setting the stage for the Afghans to work out a deal among themselves in the years after most Western forces depart — and to ensure Pakistan is on board with any eventual settlement. Military and diplomatic officials here and in Washington said that despite attempts to engage directly with Taliban leaders this year, they now expect that any significant progress will come only after 2014, once the bulk of NATO troops have left.

“I don’t see it happening in the next couple years,” said a senior coalition officer. He and a number of other officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the talks.“ It’s a very resilient enemy, and I’m not going to tell you it’s not,” the officer said. “It will be a constant battle, and it will be for years.”

The failure to broker meaningful talks with the Taliban underscores the fragility of the gains claimed during the surge of troops ordered by President Barack Obama in 2009. The 30,000 extra troops won back territory held by the Taliban but, by nearly all estimates, failed to deal a crippling blow.

Among U.S. commanding generals here, from Stanley McChrystal and David Petraeus to today’s John Allen, it has been an oft-repeated mantra that the U.S. is not going to kill its way out of Afghanistan. They said that the Afghanistan war, like most insurgencies, could end only with a negotiation.

Now, U.S. officials say they have reduced their goals further — to patiently laying the groundwork for eventual peace talks after they leave.

With the end of this year’s fighting season, the Taliban have weathered the biggest push the U.S.-led coalition is going to make against them. A third of all U.S. forces have left, and more of the 68,000 remaining may leave next year, with the goal that only a residual force of trainers and special operations troops will remain by the end of 2014.