For a guy who has played none of them (and I'm hoping someone hasn't already asked this), which is the best one to start out with IYO?

I would personally go against Lard's recommendation and go on the opposite way of Nocturne. It is good but I think it is bit too frustrating. It's one of those games every encounter can kill you and most bosses certainly will kill you.Aside from that I think Nocturne has a lot of good things in its favor, but for someone starting in the series I'd recommend P3/P4 or even Digital Devil Saga (which I have only played a little but seemed much easier to get into than Nocturne).

I wouldn't go so far as to say every encounter can kill you, but if you're under leveled and don't have the right demons it can happen. I'm playing on hard mode right now and there have been plenty of random battles that I turn auto on and don't have to worry about dying. Digital Devil Saga can be just as unforgiving as Nocturne IMO.

Yeah, Persona 3 or 4, or even Persona 2 are the best places to start, IMO. Persona 2 doesn't have the greatest gameplay, but it does introduce you to demon negotiations, and I personally found its story very impressive.

Granted, I started with the first SMT game in the series. I still liked it a lot, but I don't recommend doing it unless you're stubborn. It's a very unkind game...

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For a guy who has played none of them (and I'm hoping someone hasn't already asked this), which is the best one to start out with IYO?

I would personally go against Lard's recommendation and go on the opposite way of Nocturne. It is good but I think it is bit too frustrating. It's one of those games every encounter can kill you and most bosses certainly will kill you.Aside from that I think Nocturne has a lot of good things in its favor, but for someone starting in the series I'd recommend P3/P4 or even Digital Devil Saga (which I have only played a little but seemed much easier to get into than Nocturne).

I wouldn't go so far as to say every encounter can kill you, but if you're under leveled and don't have the right demons it can happen. I'm playing on hard mode right now and there have been plenty of random battles that I turn auto on and don't have to worry about dying. Digital Devil Saga can be just as unforgiving as Nocturne IMO.

I found DDS much, much easier than Nocturne, and especially less frustrating in the dungeons, having said that I would probably say Persona 3 or 4 would be an easier game for a beginner to SMT.

I just beat the final boss in Persona 4: The Golden today (jap version) and comparing to the orignal PS2 version I think this one is leagues better. There are many things that make it better in my opinion but one that clearly sticks out and I assume a lot of people here will love is the option to choose which skills will carry over in a persona fusion.

This is so much better than having to go back and for waiting for that random selection you wanted in the first place. Aside from that many new places to go, social links, personas, better resolution. Of course it is still the same game but I think these changes surely justify the price of admission.

I still haven't beat the optional dungeon, but considering I didn't do it in my PS2 run I thought I could give my thoughts on the game already. A good thing is that in this version you don't need to be on a 2nd run to go into the dungeon. To make it perfect for me only if it were to have an episode like "The Answer from P3" but still, I cannot believe I'm having even more fun this second time then the first.

I just beat the final boss in Persona 4: The Golden today (jap version) and comparing to the orignal PS2 version I think this one is leagues better. There are many things that make it better in my opinion but one that clearly sticks out and I assume a lot of people here will love is the option to choose which skills will carry over in a persona fusion.

They finally added that to a game that isn't Devil Survivor?! It's about time. I always thought it was silly that we couldn't do this in the first place. If I'm going to sit there wasting a half hour going back and forth trying to get the exact skills I want, why I shouldn't I be able to choose them?