What if the UK had voted to Remain?

The prime minister David Cameron hangs on to power by a thread after Britain has voted to remain in the European Union. To the frustration of millions, a late swing back to the status quo has settled the EU debate for a generation, but bitter division between Conservatives remains. The debate, which was defined by the shrill campaigning style of the Leave campaign and the lacklustre, essay-crisis approach of Remain has divided homes and offices. As the markets rise on the news, Britain’s immediate future once more looks stable and outward-facing, but a period of Tory introspection awaits.

Project Fear stalled during the campaign, which came close to a Brexit victory in the penultimate week. Whether it was the late swing to the status quo, the tragic killing of Jo Cox, or the Remain campaign finding another gear both in debates and in a string of media stories, for those backing Remain there is only quiet relief. The passion was always on the Brexit side in this campaign, and there is no evidence that the anti-EU, anti-migrant sentiments stirred up in the referendum will subside.

Nigel Farage and Ukip are strengthened

Passions, whipped up by Nigel Farage and others, are running high. Mr Farage is likely to remain a vocal spokesperson for a radically different future, and it is likely that Ukip popularity will increase. The establishment has won, the experts have been narrowly vindicated, but the deep fractures in society revealed during the referendum remain.

The European Union will be buoyed by the news, taking it as a vote of confidence in an institution that even the strongest Remain campaigners were critical about. The European Project should not plow on at full steam, but try to learn the lessons of a reluctant vote to stay. It seems unlikely that they will do so. For the unemployed youth of Spain and Greece, the lack of Brexit will suggest that there is no escape from the European Union, a body which must urgently come together to make good on the promises of a brighter future made during the campaign. From youth unemployment to the migrant crisis, the European Union must now earn the trust that British voters have placed in it.

Britain must now have an honest, serious conversation about the economic divides that caused so many to reject the advice of economists, politicians and experts. More than that, there is finally time to assess the death of Jo Cox, unconstrained by the divisions and bias of the referendum. Did rhetoric and the political climate contribute to a febrile atmosphere of hatred? It is time for cooler heads to consider the arguments.

David Cameron clings on

With the Chilcot report on the horizon, focus will return to the Labour Party. Eclipsed by the turmoil within the Conservatives, Jeremy Corbyn has had a relatively easy ride during the referendum. The report will split the hard left from the centrist New Labour fraction of the Labour party. Jeremy Corbyn will now come under pressure to find a unifying tone. Neither party leader seems capable of maintaining unity, but the Conservatives are more likely to fall back into line behind Cameron both because of inherent discipline and Cameron’s ability to shape the futures of individual careers while he remains in office.

This is the third "no change" referendum during Cameron’s time in power. His legacy as a conservative prime minister who maintained the status quo is now assured. Britain’s continued membership of the European Union is a failure of the largely hostile press to shape public opinion, and also means that the bogey man of the EU remains. We still share power with bureaucrats in Brussels, but this referendum has brought us no further towards European integration. It was a fight between two different shades of euroscepticism, and as such will not result in a warmer relationship between Britons and the EU.

A Britain more at ease with Europe

Radical transformation of the European Union seems unlikely, as does a breakout of Europhilia within the United Kingdom. Perhaps the best we can hope for is that this referendum result will set us a little more at ease with Europe. Having had the chance to leave, we have begrudgingly decided that staying is what works for us. If we can learn to live and work together, we may now begin to achieve the prosperity, peace, and human flourishing that the Union was built to achieve.