March Madness: Sweet 16 Predictions

Last week, I pointed out that the underdogs ruled the first two rounds of the Big Dance in the past two years. There was no three-peat in 2007, as the dogs were caged and the favorites dominated 21-10-1 against the spread (ATS) in round one.

first round

Of those 10 dogs that did bark, five won outright: Winthrop, Purdue, UNLV, Kentucky, and VCU.

The top two seeds in each region also rebounded this year in opening-round action. The chalks were a combined 5-2-1 versus the oddsmakers compared to a dismal 2-13-1 ATS mark in the previous two years.

Bottom line: You made some serious money if you rode the chalks last Thursday and Friday, going 21-10-1 ATS.

second round

But in round two action, the dogs struck back with a vengeance and went 9-6-1 ATS, with four of those puppies (Butler, UNLV, USC, and Vanderbilt) winning outright to earn a ticket to the Sweet 16. And the No. 1 seeds were 2-2 in Vegas, while the No. 2 seeds were 1-3 ATS.

Ironically, this second-round pattern was a near-identical match to the 2006 tournament results when the underdogs were 9-7 ATS with five outright upsets. And a year ago, the top two seeds were a combined 4-4 versus the number.

To surmise: Round one showed a reversal of recent trends as the chalks took their revenge, while round two stayed true to form with the puppies barking loud and strong. What does history tell us about this weekend’s action?

In last year’s Sweet 16, the favorites were a disappointing 3-5 ATS, and only one underdog, LSU, won outright. In the Elite Eight, the favorites were 0-4 ATS and all four puppies won outright.

Clearly the dogs were barking all the way to the bank last season, but will history repeat itself this week? We shall see.

2007 sweet 16 predictions

Now, without further delay, let’s get to my Sweet 16 freebies. In 2006-07, I closed the football season on a 17-8-1 run with my free picks at AskMen.com, and last week, I gave you a 4-0 sweep with Michigan State, Louisville, North Texas, and Winthrop.

Note: In all fairness, I must point out that later in the week I switched my free pick from North Texas to Memphis on my daily video at BrandonLang.com and lost that play.

Let’s keep the mojo going with three more solid selections, which include a pair of — you guessed it — underdogs.

(5) Tennessee +4 vs. (1) Ohio State

First off, Ohio State has about as much business playing in this game as you, me and three chumps from the local recreation center do. If it weren’t for four incredibly lucky breaks that occurred in a matter of seconds in Saturday’s second-round overtime game against Xavier — including the missed Musketeers’ free throw that would’ve iced the game and a subsequent error by Xavier’s coach, who decided not to foul before Ohio State’s OT-causing miracle three-pointer — the Buckeyes would’ve been the first No. 1 seed to fall and Greg Oden would’ve spent this week interviewing agents.

If you don’t think Ohio State got ridiculously lucky against Xavier, just look at the line the oddsmakers hung on this game. Ohio State is a No. 1 seed and owns the nation’s second-longest winning streak (19), and while teams like Kansas, Georgetown and North Carolina are heavy favorites this week, the Buckeyes are laying a very small number. Of course, that’s because the guys in Vegas are aware that it’s just a matter of time before the sixth and final team from the overrated Big Ten is bounced from this Big Dance.

Who does Brandon pick for this matchup, and what’s the deal between Butler and Florida?