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China is the world’s largest auto market, with 28.03 million vehicles sold last year, a boost in demand of 13.7 percent vs. 2015 sales numbers. The nation has already done a lot to incentivize manufacturers to develop and sell new EVs, including allowing foreign automakers to create a third joint venture with local automakers (a standard requirement for doing business in the country for auto OEMs) so long as it’s dedicated to the creation of EVs exclusively.

CO2 emissions from EVs are substantially lower than their fossil-fuel-guzzling cousins. And since most of us prefer swallowing our air without having to chew it first, the appeal is as easy to understand as Cameron Diaz in a bikini.

Here’s an excellent chart which you can go and play around with which shows vehicle emissions. The yellow are the EVs (click the chart):

This news has tree-hugging beardies everywhere rejoicing because they will, once and for all, get rid of all those ghastly baby-seal-murdering bastard oil and gas executives.

Two Things Worth Thinking About Here

If EVs take over the planet, prevent air pollution, cease the destruction of the short-eared owl’s habitat, and cure halitosis, surely more electricity will be required, no?

And secondly, if the internal combustion engine is going to prop up landfills, then what exactly goes into making these EVs? Because being a simple guy I couldn’t help stop and do simple math. That is: if car (a) being satan’s transport (diesel, of course) is replaced with car (b) the unicorn rainbow (EV), surely there will be massive demand for all the stuff that makes up car (b).

So let’s tackle point number one.

Which is really to ask the question that Al Gore’s tribe never ask.

What is the main source of power for electric vehicles?

Is it?

Rainbows

Unicorn poop

Fossil fuels

Here’s a hint from the U.S.

And from China:

And there’s your problem. Government agents have no clue what they’re talking about. We can all switch to EVs but all we’re doing is swapping out fossil fuels from our gas tanks for fossil fuels at our power stations.

Who wants a nuke powered EV?

Beardies will be horrified by the fact that over in China is where things are headed.

Though I can bet you this: Those Kardashian-watching, collagen-infested Californian rainbow lovers will be truly horrified if you explain to them that when they plug their Tesla into the power socket, it’s effectively getting 20% from truly deadly nuclear and in fact 88% of that power comes from filthy fossil fuels.

As for those fiendish Chinese, they understand that to move from air you chew to air you breathe they have to reduce the amount of coal they burn. Nuclear is the answer and so voila, nuke-fired cars.

There is more, though, and this brings me to point number 2. In order to get yourself a decent Duracell car, you need the darned battery to last long enough. Batteries being quite simply stored fuel.

Now, don’t tell Al Gore but when you build an EV and the attendant batteries to move the thing you need a lot of cobalt. There are other metals, but the typical EV needs about 15kg of cobalt, and so today I’m picking on cobalt. Here’s what a cobalt mine looks like. Shhh, they’re an environmental shocker!

And guess who has all the cobalt in the world?

These guys:

And who’s in charge?

Mostly these guys.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not against EVs, and I’m all for technological innovation. But when the narrative is so blind to realities, I realise – after my heart palpitations have subsided – that this is a good thing (even better than Cameron Diaz in a bikini).

You see, without rainbows and unicorn narratives paraded by men with strong jaws and the government agents with their tiny teflon-coated brains along with a bottomless pit of government money, we’d have a much more difficult time finding disconnected markets and mis-priced assets.

Right now the popular narrative is that if you’re an oil and gas executive, you made your money by pumping poison into the ozone layer and beating tramps to death with bay seal pups… and who the hell wants to invest in that?

If – on the other hand – you’re an executive producing batteries for “clean cars”… well, you may as well just be knighted right here and now. Chicken breasts we all know come from the supermarket shelf so it stands to reason cobalt, lithium, molybdenum all come from a similar supermarket shelf, across the street from Whole Foods’s and Tescos.

As I keep trying to educate my kids, there are just a few key things to remember in life:

Focus on the facts and ignore the noise, and

Don’t pee in the bath.

Which brings me neatly to the question for this weeks World Out of Whack:

When the narrative is wide of the mark what do you do?

I chase the momentum of the popular narrative

I buy the logic no matter how unpopular

I have tried but seem to always get whipsawed

Something else (comment on the blog)

– Chris

“To question The Obvious and the given is an essential element of the maxim ‘de omnius dubitandum’ [All is to be doubted].” — Cristopher Hitchens

Author: Capitalist ExploitsCapitalist Exploits is a team of globe-trotting professionals dedicated to seeking out and investing into unique, undiscovered, and profitable opportunities worldwide. This could be an asymmetric trading opportunity in the global currency markets, seeding a tech startup in Israel, or co-investing into a bespoke private equity deal in Ghana!
Our team lives and spends time in several different countries, on several different continents. Although we all come from different cultural backgrounds and parts of this great ball of dirt hurtling through space, in today’s world this matters little, as our values and mission are all aligned.