USA TODAY Sports' Paul Myerberg counts down to the start of the college football season team by team from No. 128 to No. 1.

The last time Alabama lost a major bowl, it ran off three of the next four national championships, creating a dynasty nearly unmatched in the history of college football. The last time Oklahoma won a major bowl, on the other hand, the Sooners lost at least three games in each of the next two seasons.

In other words: Let's play this thing by ear.

Trevor Knight threw for 348 yards and four scores in OU's victory against Alabama, completing 72.73% of his attempts and creating an under-the-radar national campaign. In every other game, on the other hand, Knight threw for 478 yards and four touchdowns against four interceptions, completing 52.22% of his attempts.

In short: Let's pump the brakes a little bit.

Oklahoma has been nothing if not consistently dominant, owning the Big 12 Conference since its inception unlike any program has owned any league – on or off of the major-conference landscape – for nearly the duration of Bob Stoops' tenure. Yet the Sooners have lost two or more games in every season since 2005, the Sooners' second-longest such streak since Bud Wilkinson stepped on campus in 1947.

Put another way: Let's be cautiously optimistic.

There's something to be said for a single game, just as there's something to be said for our tendency to carve great meaning out of a 60-minute package. Some Alabama players viewed the Sugar Bowl as a "consolation game." Nick Saban told ESPN.com in July. Oklahoma didn't; Oklahoma won. What that means for 2014 remains up for debate.

Here's what's more meaningful: OU returns 22 seniors, eight starters on defense, a five-game starter under center and only the barest sliver of last year's run game; draws Louisiana Tech, Tulsa and Tennessee in September, and this isn't your father's Tennessee; hosts Kansas State and Baylor, its two primary in-conference competitors, along with the annual Dallas-based tilt against Texas; and lost by 29 points to the Bears the last time out.

LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION:

I'm leaning positive but still not convinced. I think the pieces are here for future success, particularly on offense. But a rough schedule and some in-flux personnel decisions should lead to three losses during the regular season.

2013 RECAP:

In a nutshell: OU closed with the program's happiest three-game stretch in years: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Alabama. The middle game, in Stillwater, was pure bedlam – and vintage Bedlam. But the year was made in New Orleans, with a victory that served to extinguish the pain and anguish of not just a loss to Texas but a rocky showing at Baylor; the first was miserable, while the second cost the Sooners a conference championship. Those two performances stood out among a season of defensive stinginess, though there were some smoke and mirrors involved with the Sooners' tight-fistedness: OU ranked first in the Big 12 in yards allowed per game but sixth in yards per play, for example, and was among the league's worst in limiting explosive gains. Combine these under-the-radar ailments with off-and-on offensive struggles and you have a team worth more than the sum of its parts, which shines well on Bob Stoops and his staff.

High point: Alabama stands out months later, but let's be honest: Oklahoma State should get the nod.

Low point: Texas and Baylor. Only two options, obviously, but it's hard to gauge where each falls on OU's personalized pain spectrum.

Tidbit: Stoops enters his 16th season at OU as the third-longest-tenured coach in the Football Bowl Subdivision. Stoops, along with Iowa's Kirk Ferentz, began his turn in 1999; both trail only Virginia Tech's Frank Beamer, who started in 1987, and Troy's Larry Blakeney, who kicked off his tenure in 1991.

Tidbit (winning edition): Oklahoma has posted just 12 losing seasons in its 119-year history, the fewest of any program with roots earlier than 1950. Up next: Notre Dame, Ohio State, Florida State and Texas with 13 losing seasons, Alabama with 14 losing seasons, and Michigan and Penn State with 17 losing seasons.

Offense: This isn't just Trevor Knight's starting job, his alone after a season of ups and downs, and this isn't just Trevor Knight's offense; it's Trevor Knight's team, period, and with such power comes great responsibility. Let's say one thing with great certainty: If Knight bottles up his performance against Alabama and doles it out against the Sooners' upcoming schedule, this team is going to win the Big 12 and reach the College Football Playoff, while Knight waltzes through Manhattan to collect his Heisman Trophy. The odds of Knight replicating that showing aren't high, obviously, though there's every reason to think he'll provide OU with the sort of consistency sorely lacking for the duration of last season – well, the duration of the regular season, at least.

Oklahoma needs Trevor Knight to harness his best style of play and put inconsistency in the past.(Photo: Mark D. Smith, USA TODAY Sports)

The ceiling is high. Knight is the most balanced quarterback in the Big 12, given not just his increasingly secure work in the passing game but his ability to move the pocket and chains with his legs. His running skills will be in high demand for an offense lacking trustworthy options in the backfield, as we'll discuss below. It's not about living up to expectations as much as managing expectations: Knight's not an All-American – not yet, and perhaps not ever – but he is an all-conference contender who should, if the puzzle falls into place, throw for in the neighborhood of 3,000 yards, toss 20-plus touchdowns, manage his interceptions and add 600 yards on the ground. There's are many reasons why OU is smack-dab in the middle of the championship conversation, but here's one: Knight is going to do a nice job.

If all five starters remain healthy – likewise with the top three backups – this is the best offensive line in the Big 12. There's that caveat, however, and it's important to remember: Oklahoma's top seven or eight cogs in the rotation are extremely solid, experienced and dependable, but I don't know how far the Sooners can dip into reserve before running out of answers. Let's stay positive and believe the line has no health issues; if so, Knight is going to stay clean, the young receiver corps will have time to operate and the extremely raw backfield ample room to roam. In addition to the three full-time starters back in the fold – Adam Shead at left guard, Daryl Williams at right tackle and Tyrus Thompson at left tackle – center Ty Darlington and right guard Nila Kasitati bring extensive experience to the table; Kasitati made seven starts on the strong side a season ago. As long as the Sooners aren't crippled by injuries, this group is going to get the job done.

While awaiting a ruling on Dorial Green-Beckham's eligibility, OU will move forward with a receiver corps spearheaded by junior Sterling Shepard (51 receptions for 603 yards), the only reliable commodity among a unit long on talent but surprisingly short on proven production. While Shepard's going to deliver – he's an all-conference pick – OU desperately needs assistance from junior Durron Neal (13 for 176), who has yet to near any expectations, and redshirt freshman K.J. Young, the projected starter in the slot. Generally speaking, the Sooners need help from youngsters: Young and true freshman Jordan Smallwood are inside, sophomore Derrick Woods – he of the big grab against Alabama – will be Shepard's backup and rookies Nick Basquine, Dannon Cavil and Jeffery Mead are likely to grab spots in the rotation.

Keep an eye on the tight ends, where Blake Bell is poised to serve as the passing game's most obvious wildcard – and Taylor McNamara, his running mate at the position, a very valuable weapon. If the offseason is any indication, Bell could be one of the great surprises in the Big 12. That might be needed: OU could stand to incorporate its tight ends back into the passing game, something this staff hasn't been able to do since James Hanna's final season in 2011.

Defense: Let's spend a few words praising second-year line coach Jerry Montgomery, who arrived with a touch of fanfare last winter and quickly remade OU's underachieving front into one of the most intimidating in the Big 12. This is why programs make staffing changes on a position level: The hope and prayer is that a newcomer, like a Montgomery, steps into the fold, identifies issues, makes changes and identifies solutions – check, check and check, basically, and the best may yet to come. Along with Montgomery, OU returns the wide majority of last year's strong rotation, creating a scenario where this year's unit makes a similarly impactful stride upon last year's already impressive breakthrough. The line is vintage; the defense as a whole, in fact, might be a classic.

The line will also benefit hugely from the return of tackle Jordan Phillips, who anchored the interior of the Sooners' run defense before suffering a season-ending injury four games into the season. While the defense successfully schemed around Phillips' absence through Big 12 play, his ability to control the point of attack will yield a far stronger down-by-down showing along the front seven. His return also gives OU the flexibility to use Chuka Ndulue inside and out, perhaps moving the senior to the edges in one variation on the 3-4 set. The line's most acclaimed starter is junior end Charles Tapper (49 tackles, 5.5 sacks), a surefire all-conference pick who will bookend the line with the combination of Ndulue, Matt Dimon and D.J. Ward. Add in as many as four solid reserves – counting Quincy Russell, who was a disappointment last fall – and you have the makings of an elite defensive front.

There's enough depth for OU to feel comfortable moving Geneo Grissom (41 tackles, 4.0 sacks) up from end to outside linebacker, giving this defense yet another edge-rushing, havoc-causing weapon on the outside. Let's just play with a hypothetical, if you don't mind: OU puts Grissom, Eric Striker (50 tackles, 6.5 sacks) and Tapper in the same general vicinity on a given passing down, leading various offensive linemen, quarterbacks and coaches to suddenly contract flu-like symptoms. With Grissom in the fold, Striker a potential All-American, sophomore Dominique Alexander (80 tackles) set for a huge step forward, Jordan Evans set for an increased role and JUCO transfer Devonte Bond an impactful addition to the pass rush, OU might have the depth and experience needed to roll without Frank Shannon, who was suspended for the season on Aug. 11. It'll put pressure on Evans to deliver in his spot, but the Sooners can surround the sophomore with some major star power.

Sophomore cornerback Zack Sanchez (46 tackles, 2 interceptions) has, in the span of one year, gone from question mark to sure thing to one of the Big 12's best cornerbacks. His rapid growth makes the specter of replacing Aaron Colvin's impact far less daunting than one could have imagined; Sanchez, though still not at his full potential, is a solid stopper for the Sooners' pass defense. Where the staff goes on the other side will dictate the rest of the secondary: OU could chose senior Julian Wilson, which seems safe, but that'd lead to a hole at nickel back; in turn, that could lead the Sooners to move strong safety Quentin Hayes (75 tackles) to nickel; in turn, that'd leave a few untested underclassmen battling for two open spots along the back end.

Now, nickel back is a huge role in this scheme – OU is essentially a 3-4 defense that leans so heavily on a fifth defensive back as to be a 4-2-5, counting the hybrid outside linebacker, and relies on speed and aggressiveness everywhere outside the three-man front. So you can sense a willingness to roll with the best option opposite of Sanchez, which would be Wilson, and no compunction about shifting Hayes down to nickel back at the expense of using sophomores Ahmad Thomas and Hatari Byrd at safety. At the same time, the unit will have one primary task on its plate: Stop Baylor. Can this group get it done? It might pay to have faith in what Mike Stoops will do with his secondary.

Special teams: Punter Jed Barnett seemed to turn a corner midway through last season, making that position less and less of a concern, and OU has to feel nothing but the most extreme confidence in kicker Michael Hunnicutt's ability to produce at an All-American clip. The looming concern is the return game, which loses a star in Jalen Saunders and a capable option in Roy Finch.

POSITION(S) TO WATCH:

Running back: Joe Mixon won't play for OU as a true freshman, robbing the Sooners of a five-star recruit clearly pegged for a major role in the running game. Josh Heupel and this offense will instead move forward with the least experienced backfield of Stoops' tenure with the program, a heaping mix of youth, talent and utter rawness that stands as the offense's largest question mark. In this case, even slight experience comes in handy: Keith Ford (134 yards) must be viewed as the Sooners' best option thanks to his off-and-on production a season ago, when he flashed terrific ability but struggled with the details of the position – ball security, most notably. He's joined by another sophomore, Alex Ross, who earned a single carry in the opener against Louisiana-Monroe, drew a flag and then spent the rest of his rookie campaign in the doghouse. Another pair of sophomores, David Smith and Daniel Brooks, could take advantage of the wide-open depth chart to move into vastly increased roles; Brooks, the smallest option the roster, seems best fit in a change-of-pace spot. Finally, there's the other rookie: Samaje Perine didn't draw Mixon's acclaim but will be asked to contribute from the start. Oklahoma's lack of backfield experience is concerning.

GAME(S) TO WATCH:

Baylor: Texas looms, as always, and it's a tone-setting game as the rivalry enters a Mack Brown-less era. But the Big 12 comes down to OU and Baylor, with the Bears traveling to Norman on Nov. 8. Here's the best news of all: OU hosts Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma State. You can't ask for a kinder road to the playoff, all things considered.

SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION:

In a nutshell: The team that beat Alabama will beat every team on this schedule and play its way into the College Football Playoff. Now let's see if Oklahoma can bottle the Sugar Bowl and parcel it out, violently, during the course of the regular season. Here's the question, and it's a big one: What is Oklahoma? Is it the team that weathered Kansas State, shattered Oklahoma State and bullied Alabama? Is it the team that laid an egg against Texas, couldn't sniff Baylor and had issues, for much of the year, with moving the football and stopping the run? It's a new year, yes, but the same issues remain: OU is still searching not just for the perfect game – we've seen that already – but the perfect games.

I doubt this team's ability to be perfect, though I clearly don't question the Sooners' ability to win the Big 12 and challenge for a spot among the top four heading into the postseason. There are four personnel concerns: one, the totally inexperienced backfield; two, the unproven receiver corps, outside of Shepard; three, the return game; and four – and this might be a bit of a stretch – Knight's production at quarterback. The latter, as noted, shouldn't be a major concern. The red flags are those skill players surrounding Knight, and whether or not the youngsters step forward and surround their quarterback with the weapons he needs to be successful at an all-conference clip.

It's all about balance. The offense needs to even out the run and the pass, with Knight perhaps the central figure in both areas. The defense must get tougher from tackle to tackle against the run, a task made easier by Phillips' return from injury. The secondary needs to come together before Baylor, obviously, if not be ready to handle Jake Waters and Kansas State in October. Does this team have what it takes? There's no doubt. But I have my doubts, generally speaking, about whether or not this team truly deserves the preseason acclaim built off a single win in January. The Big 12 championship goes through Baylor.

Dream season: Oklahoma wins every game by two or more scores to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff.