The fate of the EU and its impact on the U.S.

Friday, November 18, 2011 - 04:44

The Euro zone is still trying to dig itself out of its financial mess and prevent more countries, like Spain and Italy, from sinking into a black hole. At a panel discussion called, The Finance Crisis: Lessons Learned from Canada and the Way Forward, at the Canadian Embassy in Washington, D.C., Robert Rubin, former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, sat down with Chrystia Freeland and told her how he thinks the EU crisis could end and what impact it could have on the U.S.

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-- -- -- -- Why it's. You or you on the likelihood. That. The negative way to put the question okay. Lucrative it is it is enormously complicated. Ask him certain. A lot of people a lot of news in my view my in my view and simple. -- form. If that policy -- in Europe but behind the curve from day one. And there are rigid notions seem to -- -- that it was so universal recognition -- was almost truly insolvent. But they would try to buy a couple years. More benign environment. To me that seems. Really don't like it worked because -- markets -- -- is trying to buy time inquiry could be running ahead of you. And I think it has policy makers ever since. -- moment. For one -- in my view it that I think that the real structural changes that. Substantively probably would be and become quite a way beyond political ability of your to do right now and therefore I think. The most likely alternative to Havoc and chaos. It is well if you -- to disasters. Differences. Is is sort of a muddling through scenario. And it involved ECB and you assess and involve finding the right down the disparity in growth in some countries are going to be possible to do is certainly involved -- -- in the banks and I think. Cap -- and probably greater -- those yet acknowledge. Involved usual list of many other factors. -- great firewall around Spain and Italy. And all of that is extremely difficult so to -- I think doable. The politics around -- that are extremely difficult that was gonna come down to political well. And my own view. Uses. The probabilities. Are likely somewhat better. That despite all the immense difficulties of this. That they lined up. We're in the way through this so will be linked the -- volatile completely content they have real risk of going off the road. And only regret it there's I think -- alternative. -- so around us and I think it it if there were coming up against that it does Clinton see how are in the filter is you get. I these sort of get them back. But there's certainly -- some certainty and -- groups that at some point you go up against the clip you miscalculate and you have an unhappy ending. It's your uncertainty. Is. You know. Curious thing is I think it. Significant may be very significant. But it is curious to me. That there's some days when he let our work in the fluctuates very substantially. In relationship to. Happening in Europe and other days when it seemed to kind of shrug it off. But let's get -- getting on the moon the immediate mark though the local agencies -- TrueCrypt it. I -- -- -- would be the if you're continued to have difficulty. That obviously adverse effect on global demand -- appointed global demand anyway because of our problems. And so I think it's really very significant I was trying to couple of weeks ago. And of this -- you have. It was split screen if you will with a number of emerging market and -- very well and you're United States can have great to vote. Maybe that's right and if anybody Colombo that China but. I think when you consider the effects of global movement to replace it certainly it is psychological contagion. And here and our markets. And it is it contagion via. The banking system. Hopefully. The bank uses outside your. We don't know that. You might get enough to. It could be groups. And in the wider this thing get in Europe. In the war that affect an institution there also global demand there if economic news Europe and great will be effective field. And -- really pro Spain Italy they don't build effective our programs in Italy. And I think it's very hard predict. Where you have to guess it was pretty real.

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