December 5, 2009

Let’s assume for a moment that Peavy’s strikeout and walk rates mirror his Bill James projection for 2010: 9.08 K/9 and 2.89 BB/9. But instead of his HR/9 average coming in well under 1.00, he gives up roughly one homer per nine frames. That’s about 24 dingers in his projected 215 innings.

“A lot of people are saying that,” Guillen said … “He’s the one in the lineup I have right now. Is he ideal? That’s the only (one) have. But I really like to have someone else out there. Bekcham is a very, very good RBI man. And I don’t want to take the bat away from him, and hoepfully we find someone to take his spot.”

Ozzie knows Kenny’s trying to find one:

“We tried to find one. It’s not easy. We tried looking for one, the one out there is very expensive, and the one is not there, we have to make big trades. We got from now until April to figure out. We got 2 1/2 months until (spring training) starts. Hopefully we find a true leadoff hitter. If not, we’ll see what we can do.”
and
“I’m not going to put the pressure on (Beckham) like he has to carry this ballclub. He’s going to be down there and put him where he feels comfortable. I’m going to try to protect him the best I can but right now, I like what I see when this kid is up with men on base. I’m going to put him in a RBI situation. Him and (Alexei) Ramirez, they love RBIs.”

In 2008, Floyd struck out 6.32 batters per nine innings. In ‘09, his K rate climbed to 7.6 per nine frames. The increase appears to be supported by a drop in contact rate. Opposing batters made contact when swinging at Floyd’s pitches 81.7% of the time in ‘08, but just 77.8% in ‘09 (80-81% MLB average).

Also, his rate of swinging strikes spiked from 8.4% in ‘08 to 9.9% this past year (7.8% average for starting pitchers). Floyd ranked 17th among starters in contact rate and 21st in swinging strike rate.

The soon-to-be 27 year-old also lowered his walk rate a bit, from 3.05 BB/9 in 2008 to 2.75 BB/9 in 2009. Floyd kept the ball on the ground more than in years past, with a 44.3 GB% (41.2% in ‘08). …

Look for Williams to wait as long as possible even though there aren’t many natural leadoff hitters available at a thrifty price. Free agent Coco Crisp remains an option, especially if Williams can move some salary.