risk management

Referring to the weight of Investment to country’s GDP, with rapid development of economy globalization and information technologies, the theories of the Investment appraisal and project cost control have become hot research topic in the field of Management science. Based on reading and studying of a large number of research references , looking into fine chemical industry in a current competing market environment, by referring to the systematic and complete methodologies in foreign Investment companies, adequating to the real domestic situation, deeply demonstration and researching on following themes have done , e.g. phase definition over the whole project life, investment appraisal at beginning ,risk Management, Economic criteria analysis, clean production/ investment, project cost control etc. The main contents of this thesis are as follows:1. Referring to the theories of”project management, investment appraisal”and the systematic methodologies in foreign investment companies, deeply studied themes of”investment-decision shall orientate future, reduction of risk shall start as prevention and Economic criteria analysis (IRR, NPV, PB)”, Well explained the relationship among main steps at beginning of project feasibility study. i.e. Environment analysis– risk management– control parameters selection for project– economy analysis for project.2. Referring to the theory of”participating factors of cost control”, deeply studied the it’s influential and methodologies of cost control over whole phases.3.Referring to the theory of”clean production/ Eco-product development strategy”, demonstrated the relationship between sustainable development and investment.4. The application project in fine chemical investment was carried out, and the demonstrated theories and methods were verified. Good practical effects were obtained..

In a two-echelon supply chain which consists of a downstream retailer and an upstream manufacturer, faced with the uncertainty of market demand, the retailer make ordering decisions after forecasting the real market demand with noisy demand information that he (or she) observes, which will influence the upstream manufacturer’s wholesale price decision-making. The market demand fluctuation and information noises will lead to performance (profit) fluctuations both individually and globly in the supply chain via the retailer’s ordering-decision. The process of “exogenous risks have effects on the retailer’s ordering-decision and then have effects on performance variance of the upstream manufacturer” is named risk transmission in supply chains in this paper.Firstly, this paper tries to build a game model between the node firms (a retailer and a manufacturer) in a supply chain with a wholesale price contract under the condition that demand fluctuation and information noises are uniformly distributed. Further, with the quilibrium, it studies how exogenous risks (demand fluctuations and information noises) are transmitted in the supply chain (i.e., how do exogenous risks (demand risk and information risk) affect the variance of node firms’profits) and discusses the impacts of those exogenous risks on (demand risk and information risk) on their expected profits. Secondly, this paper builds a three-stage game model between an upstream supplier and a downstream manufacturer in a supply chain with a wholesale price contract when futures trading are available, so as to describe how the manufacturer and the supplier strategically interact. Further, via analyzing the equilibrium, it studies the impacts of the change in the futures price on the transmission of demand risk (variance) in supply chains (i.e. how the futures price affects node firms’profit variances and expectations).The results show that,(1) due to interaction of the “judgment effect” and the “decision effect”, those exogenous risks (demand risk and information risk) have different effects on the retailer’s variance and expectation of its profit under different demand observations;(2)the manufacturer’s variance of profit increases in the magnitude of the demand fluctuations and decreases in that of information noises, whereas the manufacturer expected performance will be kept unchanged, which implies that those exogenous risks (demand risk and information risk) are transmitted to manufacturer vai the retailer’s strategic ordering (3) in the presence of futures market, the supplier’s variance of profit increases in the change of the futures price and it results in higher profit risk that the supplier bears when the futures price rises,which implies the manufacturer’s ordering-decision makes the exogenous risk (demand risk) transmit to the supplier,the change in the futures price can be used for supply chain managers as an indicator for foreseeing how their profitability and risk are going to change.

Super vacuoles technology has made great achievements in the world and has made sport in water achieved ultra high speed “flight”. At present, Russia has successfully developed the speed of100m/s “storm” super vacuoles torpedo; The United States, Germany, France and other countries are doing the research on Basic and application of the cavitation drag reduction technology. China recently launched in super vacuoles of Basic research technique.There is a big gap between China and foreign countries no matter in technology or research methods, because our country began to do some research on super vacuoles technology is very late. And it will lead to enormous risk because the variability of project plans, technical uncertainty, imperfect communication, test method selection, test equipment differences, costs, competition of external environment, staff mobility, etc may not be achieve. How to forecast risk, analyze risk, control and avoid risks on Management is the difficulties and focus of achieving the project Management of super vacuoles technology.This study views the project of super vacuoles technology as a whole and make a combination of R&D project between the project risk management theory and the actual status of super vacuoles technology, and then establishe a risk management system of super vacuoles technology research and development. By using the risk identification method, we make the risk of super vacuoles technology R&D projects into five major categories:schedule risk, the test risk, thchnical risk, cost risk, personnel risk. And then analyze the main risk factors of each category of the five major risks. Moreover, on this basis, we build a risk analysis sysetm of Ⅱ level hierarchical structure by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Finally, through identifying the importance of various risk factors and deep researching of risk management and risk prevention, we give prevention stategies to deal with the five major categories of risk. This research not only can reduce the risk of super vacuoles technology R&D projects, but also provide a theoretical basis for similar projects and practical application of reference.

On July 21, 2005, People’s bank of China announced that China would implement a regulated, managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and in reference to a package of currencies. With the exchange rate reform development, exchange rate fluctuation becomes very great, the exchange rate of the Renminbi against the U.S. dollar climbed a new high of 7.9732 yuan to one dollar on July 31, 2006. Accordingly, foreign exchange riskManagement become very significant, in this paper, exchange rate volatility will be measured in a manner of empirical study on HSBC bank.With the opening of economy and finance of our country, domestic commercial banks are facing a more prosperous foreign market and competition becomes more serious, especially the competition from the foreign banks. Foreign business of domestic commercial banks involves transnational settlements and has the feature of valuing in foreign currencies, which make the risks more complex and more concealing. Foreign businesses of our commercial bank increased quickly, but risk Management is still at a weak stage. The measure of exchange rate volatility and risk management of foreign businesses has strategic meanings.In chapter one, background and bound of this thesis is presented. In chapter two, it reviews the general theories of the foreign business risk and risk management of commercial bank. Chapter three and four are the keystone. Author applies the ARCH/GARCH model to measure Hongkong dollar exchange rate volatility risk in chapter three. In chapter four, author focuses on foreign exchange risk management and discusses a lot of methods including foreign exchange swap,foreign currency futures, forward foreign exchange contract and foreign exchange option.

In the recent years, especially around year of 2001 when a series of company scandal was disclosed, the activities on legislation and study about Internal Control System have drawn the society’s attention. COSO activity made great contribution. Internal control—Internal Framework was issued in 1992 by COSO and was partly revised in 1994. It has became the worldwide authority document on Internal Control System, and it also has been recognized by international enact standard of audit organization and supervise of bank and other bodies. In Sep of 2004, a Frame Integrate of Enterpriser risk Management, issued by COSO draws extensive attentions. Although, a Frame Integrate of Enterpriser risk Management didn’t replace A Frame integrate of Internal Control System, but it covered a Frame integrate of Internal Control System. The Frame Integrate of Enterpriser risk Management covers more issues than Internal Control System since it expanded and detailed Internal Control System. It is the concept more closely concerning risk management.It is clear that china’s healthcare gained rapid progress including Medical workers (there are 300 thousand different Medical institutions and 5.49million medial workers). Meanwhile the medical services have to be regulated because disputes between medical staff and patients was increase by 30% each year, and it seriously threaten the development of healthy cause. Medical staff and patients dispute has become a bottleneck of medical institutional reform; therefore, medical institutions were challenged by issues on risk management.Medical risk control has become complete after long-term researches on big hospital in Hong Kong and in overseas. It can be effective to avoid unskillful and faulty medical or surgical treatment and improve quality of medical service. In the United States, medical organizations established complete medical risk control system through protracted researches. The key issue of the system in USA is to actively seek problems and solve the problems and keep improving. This article tries to study medical risk control and introduce the concepts from newly issued Enterprise Risk Management—Internal Framework.Exploring the medical risk control issues will use the theory of internal control and the Enterprise Risk Management—Internal Framework which is promulgated in 2004 by COSO. Meanwhile the China’s present situations in medical circles will be considered as important part. Medical risk exists at different circles of medical operations, as medical risk is uncertain and has serious ill effects therefore is high-level risk. The result would be serious if we don’t take effective measures to manage medical risk. Medical risk not only threatens patients’Health and hospitals’reputation but also bearing on Social and national Economic order stability and the well-being and Health of t he people. Therefore, management of medical risk should make joint efforts from society, governments and hospitals.

Chinese Economic developed so quickly nowadays, the varioussupporting program development take more and more important role inChinese infrastructure construction. Environmental infrastructureconstruction project also take a very important role in infrastructureconstruction and also need various channels to support it. In today’ssociety development stage, the fund on Environmental infrastructureconstruction project is really limited; just because of this reason thefinancing channel for the Environmental infrastructure constructionproject development quickly. BOT (build-operate-transfer) financingmodel effect the Chinese research deeply, but still many filed need to beexplored. This paper focuses on the protection mode of BOT projectfinancing risk Management. This paper presented a real case, based on theevaluation result of this case put forward the risk countermeasures andsuggestion. This paper first introduced in BOT mode of financing riskmanagement methods, summarized how to environmental BOTconstruction project financing risk identification. Based on the BOTproject financing risk analysis and evaluation, various comparativeanalysis and risk evaluation were founded. In the next step, the paperintroduce the application VAR method and real option method in BOTproject. After this paper introduce BOT project financing risk Management strategy, mainly focus on the analysis of environmentalinfrastructure construction countermeasure. This paper use huge part oftext and many chart to introduce the risk in Lanzhou Yantan sewagetreatment plant project, and do further research on each identified riskfactor. Then use the risk evaluation of the general steps to constructproject financing risk evaluation model, at the same time, we suggest tochoose a fixed contract, insurance and other methods to control economicand legal risk. BOT project financing risk is not limited to these threeaspects, budget overruns and delays are equally important, so we mustalso manage the risk. These risk solutions mainly signed by the detailedconstruction contract signing protocol, energy supply, set up a fundescrow account, seek policy support of the government and other ways toavoid. Finally, in the construction of environmental infrastructure projectfinancing, the importance of risk Management is obviously, some riskcontrol in the reasonable suggestions are based on two principles, one isrisk allocation and the other is risk share.

Affordable housing project is a major strategic project for the livelihood of the fundamental means to resolve the current housing difficulties of low-income families in China. Public rental housing is put forward for the “sandwich class” which not covered by our current housing security policies, how to speed up the development of public rental housing construction project is one of the most important task to improve China’s housing security system. The main bottleneck of affordable housing development projects is the lack of funds, it is the same for the development of public rental housing construction project, there are two issues:how to solve the lack of construction funds and how to fully mobilize Social capital to participate in public rental housing construction project, the answer of these two issues is the key to the objective of36million sets of towns’affordable housing projects during China’s12five. Public rental housing is a quasi-public goods, the development and construction funds comes mainly from the government’s financial input, the government’s financial capital is not enough for the huge capital needs of the public rental housing construction project in China. The main problem solved in this paper is how to explore new financing models to improve the enthusiasm of Social capital in the construction of public rental housing.This paper first summarizes the Basic theoretical point of view of domestic and foreign scholars for the financing of affordable housing projects, combined with the financing status of China’s public rental housing, summarizes the major financing channels for public rental housing construction project in China:financial resources of central and local arrangements, loans of financial institutions, corporate bonds and notes issued in accordance with the regulations, the added income housing funds and loans, land net income, rental funds from public rental housing and ancillary facilities, SocialInvestment and other funds. Then, this paper analyzes the problems and main reasons of public rental housing finance, this section lies the foundation for the next question to solve.Secondly, combined with the advantage of BOT financing mode, from the nature of public rental housing, Environmental and Economic conditions, social capital strength and other considerations, this paper analyzes the feasibility of using BOT financing mode in the public rental housing construction projects. Combined with the main problems of public rental housing construction financing, this paper puts forward the need to develop public rental housing BOT model.Finally, on the basis of related research, this paper puts forward the specific framework, the main participants, the design of the main contract and the operational processes of using BOT financing mode in the public rental housing construction projects. Then, combined with risk Management thinking, this paper analyzes the main risks and risk-sharing measures of China’s public rental housing BOT projects, and ultimately this paper gives the countermeasures and suggestions for the development of public rental housing BOT projects.

In the time backdrop of Economic globalization, market dynamics, and requirement personality, as a new logistics model, the virtual logistics enterprises can integrate the external logistics services, and make themselves have the ability to adapt the market demand of integrated logistics services, so as to realize the rapid response to market opportunities. At the same time, because of the unique organization, Management and the complex internal and external environment, it is objectively decided that, with any of the other forms of organization, virtual logistics Enterprise has its inherent flaws and kinds of inherent risks.This paper treats virtual logistics Enterprise in the risk as the study object. Virtual Logistics Enterprise risk refers to the feasibility in the course of its operation, due to the uncertainty factors of internal and external system, that affect the normal operation and deviation from the intended target, which can bring damage. The research work mainly from the three aspects: First, a comprehensive risk identification of system, dividing the risk of virtual logistics enterprises into the market risks, the ability risk, manage risk, the risk of moral hazard, strategic risk, and analysis the risk factors’causes and the aftereffect. Second, select specific indexes of virtual logistics enterprises risk, given the risk evaluation index system, build the risk assessment model based on BP neural networks, so as to analyze the risk of virtual logistics enterprises. Thirdly, expatiate on various aspects of risk Management method, that use to feedback and correct the implementation of the risk Management process.Through the study of these three aspects, the paper tries to establish the theoretical framework of virtual logistics enterprise risk management, for providing ways and examples for the virtual logistics enterprises risk identification, assessment, control.

Tobacco materials are guarantee foundation of normal production, Management andconstruction of tobacco enterprises, along with the increasing Investment of tobaccoengineering construction, demands of tobacco materials are also expanded further. As thecarrier, materials purchase, contracts can directly determine the quality, effectiveness andefficiency of tobacco material purchase, etc. To enhance the risk control of tobacco materialspurchase contract Management is not only the demand of market economy and tobaccosystem reform situation, but also the requirement of improving their risk Management level.Research on risk management for contract of tobacco materials Purchase can prevent tobaccomaterials purchase contract risks and promote the legality and profit ability of it.Based on contract management of tobacco materials Purchase and risk management, thisPaper chose risk management for contract of tobacco materials Purchase as research Point.Firstly it will recognize and analyze risks of tobacco materials Purchase contract meticulouslyfrom organization’s management level, specific business process level just as before signing,signing process, reveal the deficiency may exited of internal control of contract management.Then summarize risk points, establish risk evaluation index system of tobacco materialspurchase contract management, combine both qualitative and quantitative characteristic ofanalytic hierarchy process, through calculate to determine the weights of various risk factors,and sort identified risks, provides a scientific evaluation method and quantitative index forjudge of tobacco materials contract risks. Finally puts forward measures to prevent contractrisks of the tobacco material purchase Business process, control of the organization, andmanagement system, promote that we should fully exert the internal control function andpromote contract management and perfect the internal control.

With the seriously fluctuating of the global commodity prices，interest rates andexchange rates，enterprices produce motives and needs of risk avoding.Because of thedual characters that are leverage effect and low transaction cost of derivatives，whichcan be used to avoid the risk，the using of derivatives in enterprises in the world hasbeen rapid increasing in the past20years. With the deepening of financialglobalization trends，financial derivatives as a widely used risk Management tools areincreasingly being used in China’s listed banks. In recent years，China’s listed banks thesize of the use of financial derivatives has accounted for the proportion of its totalassets to12.5percent，on the use of financial derivatives，risk Management is likely toaffect the performance of China’s listed banks.First this article summarized the results of the domestic and foreign research，andthen learn from the results of research， analysis the factors of impacting theperformance of China’s listed banks，and detailed analysis of the use of derivativesfor performance means of financing for listed bank by lowing finance cost，locking theinvstment returns of the futurs，reducing the expected revenue，imprrving the structureof the income，decision-making，thereby affecting listed bank performance. Again，analysis the current situation and problems of China’s listed banks use the derivatives.Finally，uses the data of reguler financial reports2006-2010medium-term of the listedbanking industy.By using Panel data model，which studies by Eviews6.0. The results of reseachshow that using of derivatives for listed bank can enhancing the ROA and FPS，but theEPS did not pass the test of significance.Finally，based on the theory analysisi and empirical tests，the paper put forwardsome suggestion about the actual situation in China.Mading a perfect China’s financialderivatives market to enhance the efficiency of China’s listed banks risk managment，improving China’s listed banks financial derivatives transactions accountingmeasurement and disclosure system，strengthening of China’s listed banks use financialderivatives for risk Management, improving the ability of financial derivatives pricing,attention to cultivating human resources policy recommendations.