My Blago verdict guesses

Matthew Dietrich

Monday

Jun 27, 2011 at 12:01 AMJun 27, 2011 at 7:20 AM

As I write this, we are maybe hour away from hearing the jury's verdict on 18 of the 20 counts against our former governor. The jury has told Judge James Zagel it is intractably deadlocked on two of the counts. There have been all kinds of theories floated over the two weeks that the jury has been deliberating. A lot of, me included, thought that since this case was presented so much more swiftly and with fewer distracting details than in the first trial, this jury would finish its deliberations much more quickly than the 14 days it took the first jury to deadlock on all but one count. Today would have been the 10th day of deliberations, so that theory didn't work out.

Following a trial like this, you have to remember that we know a lot more than the jury does. We hear all the arguments between the lawyers and we know what has been kept out of the trial. Even considering that, I can't see Rod Blagojevich going 18-for-18 on a full acquittal.

I will be greatly disappointed -- as a citizen, not as a Blagojevich critic -- if there are not convictions pertaining to the Children's Hospital, the horse track bill and the attempts to squeeze road contractors for political donations. Based solely on what we heard in court testimony to the jury, I don't know how any reasonable person could conclude that these episodes were anything but shakedowns.

I think there will be convictions on some of the counts pertaining to those incidents.

I also think Blago clearly was shopping the Senate seat to find himself the best deal. One of my favorite moments of Blago's testimony was when he told the jury that the $15 million he wanted the Obama camp to get from Warren Buffett and Bill Gates for a 501c3 charity would not be for Blago's salary. The 501c3 wouldn't even pay him. He wanted the $15 million to get health care for the people.

If I were on the jury, that line alone was enough for a conviction.

That said, I think the selling-the-Senate-seat charges are the most likely acquittals this afternoon. Because Blago was arrested when he was, money never changed hands, so I can see jurors reasonably arguing that there's reasonable doubt about his intentions. I think that stretches the benefit of the doubt to astronomical proportions, but I would not be mad at any jury member who harbors such doubt.

I've been annoyed ever since Blagojevich's arrest that the national press focuses solely on the Senate seat charges. Sure, that's what got him arrested and that's the sexiest of the charges. They are also the charges that paint Blagojevich most clearly as, generally, a real loser. Obama was a star and he was jealous. His self-awareness was so thin that he could not see that no one in Washington, aware of his record and the federal investigation of his administration, had any interest in having him there. He had squandered $400,000 on clothes and wanted money for his kids' education. He was bored being governor and never went to work. His ego was so great and his intelligence so shallow that had his wife surfing the Web finding the salary of the ambassador to India.

You listen to those wiretap conversations and think, "What an all-around loser."

The more outrageous actions to me are the ones that showed his general approach to being governor. Those are the shakedown charges. I won't be surprised or all that disappointed if prosecutors come up empty on the Senate seat charges. As a citizen of Illinois who lived under Blagojevich's so-called governance, I'll be angry if he gets acquittals on those charges.

We'll know shortly.

As I write this, we are maybe hour away from hearing the jury's verdict on 18 of the 20 counts against our former governor. The jury has told Judge James Zagel it is intractably deadlocked on two of the counts. There have been all kinds of theories floated over the two weeks that the jury has been deliberating. A lot of, me included, thought that since this case was presented so much more swiftly and with fewer distracting details than in the first trial, this jury would finish its deliberations much more quickly than the 14 days it took the first jury to deadlock on all but one count. Today would have been the 10th day of deliberations, so that theory didn't work out.

Following a trial like this, you have to remember that we know a lot more than the jury does. We hear all the arguments between the lawyers and we know what has been kept out of the trial. Even considering that, I can't see Rod Blagojevich going 18-for-18 on a full acquittal.

I will be greatly disappointed -- as a citizen, not as a Blagojevich critic -- if there are not convictions pertaining to the Children's Hospital, the horse track bill and the attempts to squeeze road contractors for political donations. Based solely on what we heard in court testimony to the jury, I don't know how any reasonable person could conclude that these episodes were anything but shakedowns.

I think there will be convictions on some of the counts pertaining to those incidents.

I also think Blago clearly was shopping the Senate seat to find himself the best deal. One of my favorite moments of Blago's testimony was when he told the jury that the $15 million he wanted the Obama camp to get from Warren Buffett and Bill Gates for a 501c3 charity would not be for Blago's salary. The 501c3 wouldn't even pay him. He wanted the $15 million to get health care for the people.

If I were on the jury, that line alone was enough for a conviction.

That said, I think the selling-the-Senate-seat charges are the most likely acquittals this afternoon. Because Blago was arrested when he was, money never changed hands, so I can see jurors reasonably arguing that there's reasonable doubt about his intentions. I think that stretches the benefit of the doubt to astronomical proportions, but I would not be mad at any jury member who harbors such doubt.

I've been annoyed ever since Blagojevich's arrest that the national press focuses solely on the Senate seat charges. Sure, that's what got him arrested and that's the sexiest of the charges. They are also the charges that paint Blagojevich most clearly as, generally, a real loser. Obama was a star and he was jealous. His self-awareness was so thin that he could not see that no one in Washington, aware of his record and the federal investigation of his administration, had any interest in having him there. He had squandered $400,000 on clothes and wanted money for his kids' education. He was bored being governor and never went to work. His ego was so great and his intelligence so shallow that had his wife surfing the Web finding the salary of the ambassador to India.

You listen to those wiretap conversations and think, "What an all-around loser."

The more outrageous actions to me are the ones that showed his general approach to being governor. Those are the shakedown charges. I won't be surprised or all that disappointed if prosecutors come up empty on the Senate seat charges. As a citizen of Illinois who lived under Blagojevich's so-called governance, I'll be angry if he gets acquittals on those charges.

We'll know shortly.

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