Saturday 11.25am – The Brazil You Don't Yet Know

by Rich Hagon

If you're French, it's hard to make a name for yourself when you already have Hall of Famers like Antoine and Olivier Ruel, Raphael Levy, and Gabriel Nassif to contend with. In Brazil, there's a similar situation. While almost everyone has heard of the Big Three – Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa, Carlos Romao, and Willy Edel – there are a stack of talented players waiting to get their chance in the spotlight.

While we won't know which of them will seize the opportunity over the next two days until sometime late Sunday, we can do a spot of crystal ball-gazing, and offer you a few players who might be in the shake-up down the stretch:

Allison Abe, Aristides Camara, Rafael Coqueiro

Allison Abe has been riding high in the global rankings table for several years, but hasn't taken advantage of his Pro Tour invite until Worlds in Rome last year. His breakout performance came just a few weeks ago, when he reached the semi final of Grand Prix Gothenburg.

Aristides Camara was the 'third man' alongside Carlos Romao and Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa in the National Team that so narrowly missed out on Sunday action at Worlds in Rome 2009.

Vagner Casatti has four Pro Tours to his name, with his most notable achievement being part of the National Team that so nearly won the whole thing on US soil in Memphis 2008, before eventually finishing third overall.

Rafael Coqueiro made his Pro Tour debut in Atlanta 2004, a team event, and has made half a dozen appearances on Tour. His standout to date was when finishing inside the top 32 at Worlds in Rome last year.

Luis Guilherme de Michielli, Vagner Casatti, Jonathan Melamed

Like Vagner Casatti, Luis Guilherme de Michielli was part of the 2008 squad in Memphis. He paced the team at that event, finishing a hugely creditable 16th. With six Pro Tours in the last two years, he's someone to watch this weekend.

Jonathan Melamed opened his Pro Tour accound at Worlds 2006 in Paris, and came perilously close to the Top 8 at Pro Tour Austin last year, eventually finishing in 13th place, with a penultimate round loss to Hunter Burton eliminating him from contention.

Guilherme Medeiros Merjan, Pedro Motta, Celso Zampere Junior

Guilherme Medeiros Merjan began the last round of Pro Tour San Juan inside the top 8, needing a win in the final round to crack Sunday action. His final round opponent? Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa. It was an epic encounter, with Paulo fought right to the wire. In the end, of course, it was the eventual winner who advanced, while Merjan had to content himself with a heartbreaking 14th place.

Pedro Motta has played at five Pro Tours, and four of those were World Championships. Those events took him to Sydney in 2002, Berlin in 2003, San Francisco in 2004, and New York in 2007.

Celso Zampere Junior has double digit appearances on the Pro Tour. Undoubtedly his crowning moment to date came when teaming up with fellow standouts Willy Edel and Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa to finish just one match short of the title at Pro Tour Charleston in 2006.

Eduardo Vieira, Carlos Alexandre dos Santos

Also looking to make a run at the Nationals Team are Magic Online standouts Eduardo Vieira and Carlos Alexandre dos Santos. These two currently head the Magic Online Player of the Year Race. While Vieira was already qualified for Nationals, dos Santos – or Batutinha as he is known online – had to try to get through Grinders to reach the start line. You can read about his Nationals Friday on this very website. It's quite a tale...

And finally, we know that there are stars just waiting to be discovered. Here's every single player that's made it to round one of Brazilian Nationals 2010. Good luck to them all!

Saturday, 11.58am – Quite A Grind

by Rich Hagon

You can call them Last Chance Qualifiers. You can call them Grinders. You can call them 'Oh-my-God-I-have-to-win-the-next-five-games-straight', though that isn't as catchy as the first two. Whatever you call them, the facts are these: Winning five straight ain't easy, even when you're battling for the number one ranking on Planet Earth. Who am I referring to? This guy:

This is Carlos Alexandre dos Santos. That's in real life. On Magic Online you can call him Batutinha (if you can pronounce it, that is.) On Magic Online, Batutinha is currently in second place in the Online Player of the Year Race. In real life, Carlos Alexandre is at Brazilian Nationals. And he isn't qualified. And that means Grinders...

Yes, that's a Sovereigns of Lost Alara, and a Mythic Conscription, and yes, Batutinha won that one. But he didn't win the match. In round two, he was finished. Still, there's a reason they call them Grinders...

As you can see, fourteen Grinders took place during Friday action. Five of them were ready to go as soon as the doors opened at 9am. That's 160 players, competing for five slots in Nationals in five rounds of single elimination. Having lost in round two, Batutinha slotted into Grinder Number Nine (a bit like Mambo Number Five, only different.)

Now it was all business. Knowing that this really was the last chance of the last chances, Batutinha beat Dread vine, and Naya, and Bant, to stand at 3-0. Round four – the semi-final – saw him in deep trouble. He mulliganed to five in the opener, and got run over by Vampires in short order. His comeback was measured and assured, and even a large Tendrils of Corruption couldn't stop him reaching the final. Now just one man stood between him and a seat in the main event. One man, and a frog...

In the final, Batutinha faced Matheus Akio Yamagiura, and this time it was the dreaded Mythic Conscription mirror match. To tip the scales in his favor, Yamagiura called on the curse of the frog. Each round, he had written the name of his opponent, and then 'fed' the name to his frog, thus cursing his opponent to certain death. Whilst scientific studies into the veracity of this plan remain at the planning stage, anecdotal evidence through four rounds was that it was working just fine, thanks for asking.

So now it was just one game to go, for all the proverbial marbles. At the last, the frog turned on its master (possibly), with Yamagiura forced to begin with a chronic five card hand of four land and Eldrazi Conscription. Would one of the best players in the world on Magic Online let him off the hook? He would not. Lotus Cobra.... Jace, the Mind Sculptor.... Linvala, Keeper of Silence....bounce, attack....bounce, attack....

Carlos says Good Game. Or, as Batutinha would put it...gg.

Saturday, 12.13pm – Last Chance Qualifiers

by Rich Hagon

We have one particular story to tell of the Last Chance Qualifiers, featuring one of the world's finest Magic Online talents. More of that later. For now, here's your chance to pore over all the decks that managed to go 5-0 and claim a spot at Nationals itself. While Mythic Conscription is certainly in evidence, there were many routes into the main event, including a super-fun Kiln Fiend deck.

Feature Match: Round Two - Celso Zampere Junior versus Vagner Casatti

by Rich Hagon

Over twelve rounds, you can't afford many losses. When tiebreaks could be crucial, you really don't want those losses to come early. Which is why this round two match has so much riding on it, since both Zampere and Casatti lost their opener. One will – barring an unlikely draw – fall to 0-2, and it's a long walk back from there.

Casatti finished third with his teammates at Worlds in Memphis 2008, while Zampere came even closer, falling just one match short of the title alongside storied teammates Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa and Willy Edel.

A second Savage Lands looked to rectify the situation, but the early game seemed to belong to Casatti, who brought Elspeth, Knight-Errant to the battlefield, complete with a seriously large (deckbox size) 1/1 Soldier token, which sent the nearby judge scurrying for alternatives.

A second Sprouting Thrinax completed the turn for Zampere, who was looking for burn off the top to finish things. The Thrinaxes were complicating things for Casatti. Grave Titan could make more men, but Zampere could get six tokens, whilst killing the Grave Titan. Not a good deal, and Casatti passed.

Casatti feels good about life.

Putrid Leech didn't alter much, and neither did a third Spreading Seas, although it did remove the threat of Raging Ravine. This time, Casatti sent the Grave Titan, raising his Zombie collection to four. Following the expected double block from Zampere, Casatti showed Path to Exile, ensuring that his Titan would live, and granting Zampere only three Saprolings. Three 1/1 Saprolings, and four 2/2 Zombies are not the same, in case you were wondering...

When Casatti ripped another Blightning, Casatti was forced to use a Doom Blade on a Saproling, and fell to just one life. He activated a Creeping Tar Pit, knowing that he needed to make the game short if he was to avoid a faceful of fiery death. In came the unblockable 3/2, together with one Zombie and the Grave Titan, promptly adding to Casatti's undead army. Now it was 12-1 in favor of Zampere, but Casatti was heading towards lethal. Titan, Tar Pit, five Zombies all piled into the red zone.

Things still weren't great for Zampere, who found Casatti using Esper Charm to force a double discard during his upkeep. Jace, the Mind Sculptor quickly went into Fateseal mode, and Casatti ran out his third Baneslayer Angel of the game. That was enough. Even three Maelstrom Pulse couldn't deal with the onslaught, and Casatti could breathe a sigh of relief, while Zampere would begin the marathon task of turning an 0-2 start into a Top 8 appearance.

Celso Zampere Junior 0 – 2 Vagner Casatti

Saturday, 1.32pm – Metagame Breakdown

by Rich Hagon

Well, all the signs were there yesterday – Mythic Conscription is out in force here at Brazilian Nationals. 26 of the 134 players have elected to give +10+10 to one of their creatures on a regular basis, making up round about 20% of the field. There's a rival for top spot however, with Jund equalling the Mythic deck in popularity.

Next up come three streamlined strategies. Nine players have opted for Mono-Red, which might turn out to be a fine metagame choice this weekend. Lots of players are quietly fearing the turn one Goblin Guide. Also using Mountain s, but paired with some Green, come the nine players running Valakut Ramp. Just behind these two comes White Weenie, in the form of the Soul Sisters deck made famous by Conley Woods. It doesn't necessarily look like much, but it really has legs.

Rounding out the field are a motley collection, including UG Tokens, UG Polymorph, Turbo Fog, Turbo Land, and Dredvine, all with a lone pilot each.

Complete Metagame Breakdown:

Mythic Conscription

26

Jund

26

UW Control

16

Naya Shaman

13

Valakut Ramp

9

Mono Red

9

White Weenie

8

Fauna Bant

5

GWB

4

Esper Control

4

Pyromancer's Ascension

3

UGR Destructive Force

2

Eldrazi

2

Grixis

2

UG Turboland

1

Dredvine

1

Turbo Fog

1

UG Polymorph

1

UG Tokens

Feature Match: Round Three - Francisco Braga versus Elton Fior

by Rich Hagon

Looking to make it 3-0 in the opening Standard salvos were a pair of legitimate contenders. Francisco Braga came to prominence when winning the Grand Prix Buenos Aires in the nearby country of Argentina. Elton Fior, meanwhile, has a Pro Tour best of 19th, achieved on debut at Worlds 2004 in San Francisco.

Braga opened with Smoldering Spires, not without reluctance, and Teetering Peaks turn two with similar lack of excitement. Fior had a turn one play in the shape of Basilisk Collar, but there was no sign of anything for it to equip in the early game. Braga's Goblin Guide was the first creature of the match, but it had arrived on turn four, incredibly. And then it didn't even have the good manners to attack!

Elton Fior

Fior reached four mana, and converted that into Vengevine, attacking for four, like well-behaved Haste monsters should. Braga attacked with his Goblin Guide, then laid a second copy after combat. Reader, I was confused....

A second Vengevine joined the battlefield, and both wasted no time in turning sideways. At end of turn, Braga let off a volley of Lightning Bolts, dealing six, before attempting a Forked Bolt, something that's definitely not allowed. He untapped, cast Ball Lightning, and then used the correct Sorcery window for the Forked Bolt. By either:

Hell's Thunder dropped Fior to eight, with the threat of four more through the air still to come. With Braga at fourteen, he needed to get the job done fast. In came Vengevine and the Bloodbraid Elf, with Goblin Guide trading for the 3/2. Fauna Shaman completed the turn for Fior, who must have feared enough burn to finish him in the four cards across the table.

I asked Braga about those curiously sluggish Goblin Guide s. Just mistakes. Braga hasn't played for a while, but it turns out that Red Deck Wins can be pretty forgiving. With or without attacking for two on turn one, he's still 3-0. Now, what is there in M11 that has Haste?....

Francisco Braga 2 – 0 Elton Fior

Saturday, 2.28pm – A Moment with the Sponsors

by Rich Hagon

If you look at pictures of major Magic events, it won't have escaped your notice that the best players all seem to be wearing branded attire, designed to showcase the wares of their assorted sponsors. The shirts of starcitygames.com, channelfireball.com, and tcgplayer.com amongst others are a fixture on the tournament scene.

Here in Brazil, a new website has recently launched, and the intrepid intrepidiers (which is presumably what intrepid people are) have sponsored virtually everything and everyone that moves. Letscollect.com.br is a new venture designed to increase the flow of magical cards around the country, and indeed the world. But what to do when one of the biggest names in the game already has a sponsorship deal with a rival?

Simple. You talk to the other party, and negotiate a plan whereby a hybrid shirt can be created. From the front, it looks like this:

From the back, the joint sponsorship is plain for all to see.

And just who is it that gets this special one-of-a-kind treatment? No surprises, it's Pro Tour San Juan champion Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa!

Saturday, 3.15pm – But I Don't...Oh wait. Yes I do.

by Rich Hagon

I'm rarely lost for words. Given what I do for a living, that's probably a good thing. Yesterday, I was lost for words. Standing outside the main hall, waiting to watch some more quality LCQ action, one Andre Pijamar came up to me. Here's Andre, clutching a bag of goodies.

Andre Pijamar with something very strange.

My eyesight isn't that great at the best of times. While it was clear that there were mana symbols involved, it was tough to tell exactly what was lurking in that little plastic bag. Time for a closer look.

Hmm. Still not entirely sure what I was dealing with, I asked Andre to explain. It turns out that his Mum, Fatima, is a big fan of sewing. Andre, meanwhile, is a big fan of the work we do on Coverage around the world. Looking for a new project, Fatima went to work, sewing these five mana symbols, before Andre presented them to me as a gift.

Sewing and Magic. Seriously.

Like I said, I was lost for words. The thing is, they're clearly awesome, and unique, which makes them super-awesome. Nonetheless, I wasn't sure what I was going to do with them. They didn't seem to have any immediate practical use. As a set of screwdrivers? No. Alternative light source? Clearly not. Midnight snack? Dubious at best. And besides, then they'd be gone. No, I needed to find something worthwhile and permanent to do with them.

As my mind raced, Andre provided one small caveat to his gift. 'We didn't actually get permission to use the mana symbols. We won't get into trouble, will we?' he smiled.

And then, inspiration struck. From this event forward, the five Magic mana symbol Sewy Things (suggestions welcome) will be travelling with me all over the world, and then they will take up residence on the most exclusive personalised laptop in the Coverage room.

Ta da!

Andre, Fatima, many thanks!

Saturday, 4.35pm – Photo Essay

by Rich Hagon

This is what day one of Brazilian Nationals looks like. Actually, scrap that. This is what the day BEFORE day one of Brazilian Nationals looks like.

Over 160 players were ready and waiting at 9am to start the Last Chance Qualifiers, and they were pretty happy to be here.

Of course, if you've been thoughtful enough to qualify in advance, that means you get to reap the rewards, like sitting in the shade on a blisteringly hot day, meeting your friends from around the country.

Then it's time to work out the final cards for your deck. I don't speak Portugese, but Mago de Centelhas Astuto spells 'Combo' in any language.

The players spilled out of the venue to take over almost the entire street, creating an astonishing Magic Street Party vibe that could only happen right here in the nation of Carnival.

Bulging trade folders were much in evidence. Here in Brazil, Magic is very much about Trading, with players stocking their folders with useful Commons and Uncommons to help ensure that everyone who wants to play four Bloodbraid Elf (and who doesn't?) will have the chance to do so.

Much excitement was caused as one of two things happened. Either, the world's first all-male topless Magic Cheerleading squad arrived, or the army ran by on exercise. One of these is more likely than the other.

Next door to the Hall of Games, a phrase that is infinitely more alluring in Portugese than in English ('Salon de Jogos'), is the main store for Sao Paulo. It's a pretty impressive building in its own right, and has facilities that many stores around the world would envy. In addition to significant gameplay space, you can read the Magic novels....

...buy all sorts of Magic-related goodness....

...and afford yourself the luxury of one of the most important things in any Magic player's life – Snacks!

Back at the Salon, there was still time to make a few final amendments before embarking on the last of the Last Chance Qualifiers.

While dealer tables may be a common sight at Grand Prix and Pro Tours, that isn't the way here in Brazil. As a result, you see groups of people clustered around the back of cars, cars which seem to contain a mysteriously large quantity of Magic sleeves...

The evening winding down, you might think players would be getting ready to tuck themselves up in bed ahead of the main event. Not a bit of it. The crowd just got bigger. And noisier. Much, much noisier. Make no mistake, this was a serious Magic party, and it was just getting started...

Saturday, 5:53 p.m. – Drafting with Allison Abe

by Rich Hagon

The semi finalist from Grand Prix Gothenburg navigated his way to a reasonable 2-1 opening in Standard, but now finds himself seated two downstream from multiple Pro Tour finalist Willy Edel, and the talented Lucas Berthoud. Still, as Gothenburg showed, Abe knows his M11, so this should be interesting.

That meant that Abe was still looking to cement a second color in the third and decisive pack. Thankfully, pack three delivered once again. Following an easy first pick Aether Adept, Abe found green coming from his right. Llanowar Elves and Birds of Paradise would help towards his Yavimaya Wurm or Harbor Serpents, while he added a second Yavimaya Wurm and then a Spined Wurm with his next two picks. Double Giant Spider, and suddenly things were really looking up. As the packs faded away, it looked as if he'd bought himself a fighting chance of at least a 2-1 draft.

Abe tries to regroup after pack one

Meanwhile, Willy Edel had settled into blue-black, with a typical mix of few creatures and many spells, including plenty of Gravedigger/Aether Adept/Call To Mind/Diabolic Tutor action, potentially leading to a Sword of Vengeance. Of the three big names at the table, however, Lucas Berthoud looked to have done the best. Opening up on Fireball and Steel Overseer, he had quickly cornered the RW market in that part of the table, and was looking super-aggressive with many efficient flyers and quality removal.

He would be hard to stop.

Feature Match Round 4 – Allison Abe vs. Willy Edel

by Rich Hagon

Sitting at 2-1, both these fine players would be looking to a strong draft showing. For twice Pro Tour finalist Edel, this was his first M11 draft. Abe had rather more practice, having reached the semi final of the hotly-contested Grand Prix Gothenburg just a few weeks ago.

Edel attacked once more with the Specter, dropping Abe to just three life, before using Diabolic Tutor for any card in his library. 'Island?' asked Abe. Edel flipped over the blue mana producer.

As it must, the Juggernaut powered in. Abe also had Giant Spider, but Edel was ready. Ice Cage for the Spider meant the Liliana's Specter could attack once again. Now at just one life, Abe faced the death of the unwanted card draw, namely Sign in Blood. Throughout the match, it seemed that Edel had all the answers.

Allison Abe 0 – 2 Willy Edel.

Saturday, 7:05 p.m. – Paulo in Peril!

by Rich Hagon

Coming into the event as one of the leading contenders, not only for this National Championship, but for Player of the Year as well, it's been a frustrating day for Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa. With six Pro Tour top 8s to his name, including the memorable victory earlier this year in San Juan, PV is no stranger to the mtg spotlight, but now, in round five, he is under the closest scrutiny, right on the verge of elimination. What's been going wrong?

Big problems for PV

'I know this sounds like a typical complaint, but I've been having mana problems' lamented the Level 8 Pro. 'My three Standard matches were all broadly favorable – two Mythic, and a Naya. But, I'd keep three land hands, and then just stay there. It's been like that all day.'

For most normal players, that's where we'd leave it – bemoaning our mana problems. Paulo, always ready to look to himself for answers first, pondered ruefully, 'Maybe I should have played an extra land. I'm at 26, maybe that wasn't enough.'

Complex, but not for Paulo

At 1-2, his attention turned to draft, and he put together a tasty-looking blue-white affair with lots of efficient flyers, an Honor of the Pure, quick white weenie ground beaters, and capped off by a Frost Titan. Did it feel like a 3-0 deck?

'Yeah, pretty much. It felt really good, but I played another good red-black deck in round four. Mana issues again, though. Very frustrating.'

Luiz Ricardo De Lima

Now in round five, Paulo found himself facing elimination at the hands of one Luiz Ricardo De Lima, who can't have imagined the feature match area would be coming his way at 1-3. An incredibly complicated battlefield featured Luiz with double Angel's Feather, double Ajani's Mantra, and a Serra Ascendant, which was perilously close to the Magic thirty life mark. Still, PV took care of business, and dodged the final bullet for at least one more round.

Feature Match Round 6 – Marcio Almeida vs. Eduardo Dos Santos Vieira

by Rich Hagon

I'm pretty excited about this sixth round matchup. While Marcio Almeida is having his best run at Nationals, having a Grand Prix day two appearance to his name, his opponent is cutting a swathe through the virtual world. Eduardo Dos Santos Vieira currently heads the Online Player of the Year standings, with the nickname 'L1XO'. Now the two face off in real life to head for the second draft at a very healthy 5-1.

Marcio Almeida up against an Online powerhouse

Almeida led out with Squadron Hawk, finding one more recruit for the cause. Assault Griffin was the first offering from Vieira, who had two Islands, a Plains, and a potentially useful Mystifying Maze. Almeida found his second color with a Mountain. A classic 'you can't really block' moment followed, as two Squadron Hawk, with mana untapped, ran into a theoretically stronger Assault Griffin, with no mana untapped. Vieira was never going to risk a trick, so two damage came through.

Vieira bolstered his board position with Water Servant, making Almeida's Goblin Piker from the previous turn look rather flimsy. Arc Runner was rather more powerful, and again Vieira elected to take the damage, now down to twelve.

After Vieira had launched a decent attack, Almeida sent his Goblin Piker to work. Pointlessly, as it turned out, since Mystifying Maze was ready. When Almeida looked to send his new Ajani Pridemate to the air with Mighty Leap, in order to block Vieira's Assault Griffin, the Magic Online pacesetter was ready again, this time with Unsummon. So far, almost everything Almeida had played had just one toughness, and he was down to six, facing mounting pressure, despite a glut of cards in hand.

Having won the opener off a mulligan to six, Vieira watched as Almeida began the second with just five cards. Still, he had turn two Squadron Hawk to pull back one of those two cards. We had seen from game one that early beats would be the key for Almeida's low-toughness deck, so a turn two Blinding Mage for Vieira was bad news, as was the no third land that followed. About the only positive Almeida could take was that his deck was set up to function nicely off little mana, with Silvercoat Lion and Ajani's Pridemate on successive turns, still with no third mana.

On Magic Online, Almeida could hope for an epic series of misclicks. Or the doorbell to ring. Or the internet to collapse. None of these things would happen here. A super-unfortunate Unsummon left him looking at an almost empty board. Foresee from Vieira merely rubbed salt into the wounds. Moments later, Almeida extended the hand.

Marcio Almeida 0 – 2 Eduardo Dos Santos Vieira

Saturday, 9:39 p.m. – At The Halfway Mark

by Rich Hagon

Six rounds of Brazilian Nationals have gone. Six remain, before we embark upon a Top 8 that will showcase Standard. Earlier in the day, we highlighted a group of players who might be in the thick of things come tomorrow evening. Let's check in with that group, and see how they've fared to date:

Starting at the bottom, it's a big shock to say that the 2002 World Champion, Carlos Romao, is gone from the event. He endured a 1-4 pounding, but took it with his customary grace and good humor.

At six points, with a 2-4 record, neither 2009 Worlds Team menber Aristides Camara nor Pro Tour finalist Celso Zampere Jnr can realistically make Top 8.

Allison Abe, Aristides Camara, Rafael Coqueiro

That brings us to the 3-3 brigade. In part, their chances may depend on tiebreaks, since it's possible that 9-3 may make it in for some, but not others. Vagner Casatti sits on this mark, alongside Jonathan Melamed, Guilherme Medeiros Merjan, and Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa, battling back from a 1-3 hole. To show you what we mean about the tiebreaks, however, Melamed is in 50th place (63.8%), while da Rosa is way back in 78th place (44.4%), which may well be too much ground to make up, even with a 6-0 run.

Grand Prix Gothenburg semi finalist Allison Abe is at 4-2, as is longtime player Pedro Motta, and double Pro Tour runner-up Willy Edel. Edel did a fine job of his first ever M11 draft, but will need to step up to the plate again if he's to mount a challenge before returning to Standard.

Pacing our group of putative contenders are Rafael Coqueiro and Luiz Guilherme de Michielli, both at 5-1. Michielli made the top 16 of Worlds in 2008, while Coqueiro has a top 32 finish from Worlds in Rome last year.

Guilherme Medeiros Merjan, Pedro Motta, Celso Zampere Junior

However, two players remain undefeated, and you can read about their round seven clash to maintain a perfect record tomorrow. Rafael Mendonca has quite a story to tell, and we'll be telling it to you very shortly, while Eduardo Lopes is hitting the heights for the first time.

And beware...L1X0, the Magic Online sensation, is closing fast at 5-1.

Still, plenty can change over the next six rounds. Three draft, three Standard...Let's do it all again!

Saturday, 10:15 p.m. – The Power of Prediction

by Rich Hagon

So yesterday, as you do, I'm walking around the venue, looking for some red hot story action. I sit down between two people I don't know, and the first gestures to his friend and says,' This guy is gonna make top 8.'

Now, I hear this line a lot. Generally, there are two possibilities. First, their friend is super-good, and does indeed have a chance of top 8. That said, they're saying it almost to defy Fate, knowing full well that you can be amazing, but still fall well short of the line. Just ask any Pro. The second possibility is that their friend is super-bad, and has less chance of making the top 8 than Iran has of winning the Eurovision Song Contest. Or maybe less than that.

In this case, my source was most insistent. 'No, seriously, do you want to take his picture now to save some time later?' At this point, I roll up my proverbial sleeves, grab the notebook, and start piecing together what's going on here. The thing is, I can't lose. If his friend turns out to be super-good, I have a heads-up. If he's hideous, well, then I can mock them savagely. Here are the two gentlemen in question:

On the right is Nicolas Damian, he of the 'my friend' comments. On the left is Rafael Mendonca, the beneficiary of said pressure. Time to find out whether they're for real or not.

'Oh no, I really mean it' says Damian, grinning ever more widely. It turns out that Mendonca has form, as they say. Top 8 in 2003. Top 8 in 2005. Top 8 in 2006. Top 8 in 2009. In 2007, he missed the top 8 by one round, being defeated in the final round of Swiss by – clearly – Nicolas Damian. Now comes the kicker.

You may be wondering why I don't know anything about Mendonca. After all, I have all the Brazilian teams in my database going back to the dawn of time. He hasn't made the team, ever. Four times he's reached the quarter final, and four times that's as far as he's gone. Three players in the team, four players in the team, it doesn't matter, he loses anyway.

So, here we are at the halfway mark in the 2010 running of Nationals. How do the two friends stand?