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Beat the Streak Report: Thursday, May 13

Another sunny day in Streakland, as the day’s Top 6 picks (Ichiro Suzuki, Andre Ethier, Michael Cuddyer, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Adrian Beltre ) each got on base by virtue of a hit, extending the streaks of about 42 percent of our streakers just by themselves.

It might have been the greatest day in the history of ever for our main man and Quebec native John Gartshore, as “cruj” reached a 36-game hitting streak (thanks to Ichiro) on the same day that the Montreal Canadiens defeated Sidney Crosby & Co. in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.

I’m sorry, am I really talking about hockey? Anyway, with a 36-game streak, Gartshore is now 63.2 percent on his way to buying as many pizzas at McDonald’s that he ever could dream of.

Anybody ever thought about picking guys you know aren’t going to play on days you’re having trouble finding a solid pick?

Today, for example, doesn’t offer a lot of options. There are very few games and a lot of aces on the mound. Even the “safe” pick — Ichiro — has very poor numbers in day games…

I’ve thought about picking Nick Swisher, who I think will be out at least today with a biceps strain, just to live and fight another day. He could pinch hit though, which could end my streak. Anyone else ever done that — pick someone you hope will not actually play?

Hey leeung! Too funny… I’ve thought of doing that a million times! I’ve never done it though.. your right.. a guy could pinch it and just finish you off.. this is something I would strongly consider once i got to 25 and higher… if you knew 100% a guy wasn’t playing that day… and it was the day of the # 1 starters.

leeung. ive done that about 10 times in the few years ive played but today doesnt seem to me like a day to do that. there are plenty of good options today. ive got carlos gonzalez who is 4-4 against lannan and hitting .378 against lefties this year

I would like to read some of the bloggers Great Beat the Streak Moments, the sort that lead us to say, “If I win the money, I’ll have to remember this hit.” For instance, sometime last season, in August I believe, I pick Ichiro in a home game against the Orioles (I think). Going into the top of the ninth, he was 0-for-whatever and the Mariners led 3-0. He would bat second in the bottom of the ninth if the Orioles could score three or more runs. Fat chance, huh? They scored five and Ichiro slapped a single into right field. I can’t remember for certain, but I think that streak was ended when I allowed Dragbunt and the Supremes to talk me into Johnny Damon against Roy Halladay (an event which added the following rule to my BTS Bible: Never go against a great pitcher even if he has sucked through the previous handful of starts). Halladay had stunk for weeks, and pitched a one-hitter.
?Professor Pete

Professor Pete – Your memory is too good! I stand guilty as charged as the person who “urged” all to take Damon last Sepetember v. Halladay who then one hit the NYY and Damon did not get the one NYY hit! I will never pick against Halladay again.
My Great Moment – Last year Nats sucked but Cristian Guzman was on a major red hot streak early in the year, so I took him. The Nats were down a few runs and Guzman was hitless. The Nats rallied in the 9th to tie the game that went to extra frames and Guzman singled in the 11th inning to get my streat to double digits.
I did not post before the BTS closed today because of my unlucky streak – I have Ichrio today, Cardinals and Guerrero in HR BTS.

I guess in the battle of sashimi v. McD pizza, sashimi won today. As soon as Jeter and Ichiro got hits, I knew Pujols would come up empty. There is no way the odd makers would allow 3 top easy picks with chunks of streakers to go through. If that was the case, I would have won this yrs ago.

Off topic but what value is Ichiro besides BTS? He rarely ever comes through in clutch situations. I know he hit a rare HR today but he came up short in the 9th. With all the hits that he is getting, couldn’t he just slap one over the infield? I was astonished and had to re-read the MLB article just to be sure when he got his first walk-off of his MLB career. That weekI remember, Melky Cab had like 3 of them. He was getting cream pied left and right.

forcook@aol.com
Please join our group!
Go to Groups on the menu bar a few words to the right of the “Pick of the Day.” When you get to the next screen put in the name – The Bloggers and you can join our group.
Good luck and post your picks with your thoughts of the day. Some days you will look like a genius and other days (hopefully not too many) you will look like the village idiot!
The idea is to have fun. Cards were doomed today as I picked them as a Cub fan this must have been their kiss of death.

cruj crashes and burns – 2 items to note:
1. He spoke to our Grande Amigo, the blog guy. Cruj is now the 2nd leader to go down in flames shortly after talking to him. Don’t answer the phone or his emails if you want your big streak to survive!
2. Cruj just started reading the blog so he did not know about my “sage” advice: Stay away from M.V.P.
M. is Mauer always looks good then has an 0-fer.
V. is Joey Votto – He had “social anxiety disorder” last year and left a game after batting twice without a hit. And about one month later, he struck out in the 1st inning argued with plate umpire and got tossed from the game.
He took down the leader with a streak of about 35 games that day. His replacement batted 6 more times in that game as it went into extra innings. Votto is “El Gato Negro” aka “The Black Cat”
P. is Pujols (see comment on Mauer) Pitchers do not pitch to him. Taking him is an accident waitng to happen to your streak.
D. is for Damon who has burned me more than once!

With regard to speaking to Grande Amigo, if you think that there is about a 75% chance of being correct on any given day, there is about a 70% chance of missing at least one of the next four days. So whether you speak to Grande Amigo or not, odds are that your current streak won’t last the week.

And just as your investment advisor tells you that ‘past performance is not indicative of future results’, the fact that you are on a 32-game streak does not change the fact that you’re 70% likely to miss at least one of the next four picks.

Regarding picking a player on the unofficial DL or loading up 10-days with a player about-to-be-placed-on-the-DL strategies… I look at it this way: The $3Mil is first-come-first-served per the rules; I can’t move forward if my player doesn’t bat.
Here’s a different strategy I often employ when I’m far behind the leaders: Pick a player you are pretty sure will not be the sure-fire 2 picks of the day. For example, today I removed Ichiro & Pujols from my list of picks & went with my 3rd choice. Why? I figure the only way I can jump ahead a chunk of players is to stay away from the obvious, hoping they will fail, but hoping my choice succeeds. It’s just a different strategy and like any strategy in a game of chance — subject to debate & failure.

And wow, did Survivor take a beating today. With a streak of only 4, I will find myself on Page 4 after last game is played tonight. I can’t remember the last time I was so high in the current standings🙂

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