ECONOMIC CHANGE THROUGH DISRUPTIVE THINKING

"A city a year. Why? Because we have no choice." - Paul Musembwa

Economic Change Through Disruptive Thinking

THE WARP INITIATIVE - A CITY A YEAR

Africa has the fastest growing populations on earth. Fast population growth and even faster urbanization has created a housing crisis. To keep up with population growth and urbanization, Uganda has to build the equivalent of a city a year for the next 25 years.

Building these cities responds to a crisis but also fuels unprecedented economic growth and development. WARP is turning Uganda’s housing crisis into an economic growth opportunity.

The Trillion Dollar Economic Growth Opportunity

Shelter Afrique estimates that African urban areas will need 565 million housing units between 2015 and 2030. That is almost 40 million homes a year, easily the world’s biggest housing development opportunity. Uganda’s Vision 2040 calls for the development of 13 cities, each housing almost 3 million people, by 2040. The cost to build these cities will exceed $500 billion and the impact to the economy will be at least $2.5 trillion. WARP contends that meeting Uganda’s housing needs through 2040 is the best and fastest way to propel the country from low to middle income.

TO ACHIEVE A CITY A YEAR, UGANDA SHOULD BUILD 500,000 HOMES A YEAR, EVERY YEAR, FOR THE NEXT 25 YEARS.

A UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY

Uganda is a low-income country that has to grow to into a middle income country. Building 13 cities by 2040 will get it there. However, delivering 13 cities in 24 years is unprecedented for any African country. This work will need bold, disruptive and overly optimistic thinking, and action. WARP is leading the charge to turn this seeming crisis into Uganda’s greatest economic growth opportunity. WARP has secured a mandate from the National Planning Authority to guide government in the delivery these cities.

WARP’s emphasis on universal homeownership will prove an important point:

Housing is the engine of the economy. Homeownership is the fuel.

THE CHALLENGE

Uganda has articulated Vision 2040, an ambitious plan that seeks to elevate it to middle income status. Reaching that goal requires Uganda’s official GDP to grow from $30 billion (or $80 billion PPP) in 2015 to $790 billion in 2040. Vision 2040 cannot be achieved by doing business as usual…

THE SOLUTION

The Solution is to go BIG! WARP is addressing the housing and urbanization challenge at scale. The constraints often blamed for Africa’s inability to adequately house its people have to be ignored or eliminated. WARP will make housing development formal and predictable. Projects following the established template will be hosted on platforms that will attract foreign investment for construction and end-user financing. WARP has developed strategies to address financing, land management and execution…

LET'S EXPORT SOME INFLATION!

A NEXUS BETWEEN THE GLOBAL NORTH AND GLOBAL SOUTH

We live in interesting times. The “Global North” is a group of developed countries with stagnating economies, no population growth, and awash with trillions of dollars of funds seeking yield. The Global North is desperate for inflation. The “Global South” is mostly composed of developing or emerging countries with fast growing populations, rapid urban growth and little capital to meet their growth needs. The Global South is desperate for lots of cheap money.

For centuries the Global North has sought cheap resources from the Global South. Labour, raw materials and recently oil and minerals have been the only “products” of interest. The trade in resources is no longer working. Developing countries want to export value-added products. They want trade, not aid.

And now the nexus. While the Global North is fighting deflation without much success, the Global South is constantly fighting inflation. According to Blackstone, an asset manager with $5.5 trillion under management, over $70 trillion dollars globally are on the sidelines unwilling to invest in negative interest rate instruments. $70 trillion. $70,000 billion. That is a lot of money seeking a return. It is too much money to spend on labour or natural resources.

Vision 2040 is a bold and ambitious plan to transform Uganda from a peasant to a modern and prosperous society. A focus on housing and urban development offers the highest leverage opportunity to achieve Vision 2040 goals.

Building new cities is not only about delivering desperately needed infrastructure. It is the most effective way to achieve universal employment, a critically important objective in a country where 80% of the population is under the age of 30.

WaRP Developments offers its commitment and expertise to the government to help achieve the goals of Vision 2040. With this model homeownership can become the engine of Uganda’s economic growth going forward.

ABOUT

WARP Developments is a Canadian company promoting housing and urban development. WARP’s vision is for homeownership to catalyze economic growth and social stability in the 21st Century.