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TC's 2013 Mock Offseason

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If you haven't been around long, then you probably don't know... I try to do one of these "offseason plans" at the end of each season. I usually do a mock free agency along with a mock draft based on the assumption that I get the guys I want in free agency.

A little about my philosophy: In free agency, I want younger talent. I'm looking for guys who are coming off their rookie contract or looking for their 3rd contract at the most... anyone older than 28 has to be a special talent with proven longevity, a good locker room presence, and willing to be a mentor.

In the draft, I use the first 2-4 rounds as an extension of free agency. Any holes I haven't plugged in free agency, I try to address in the first 3 rounds of the draft. After the 3rd round, I'm usually looking for the best player on the board... someone with raw ability who can be groomed to be a starter in the future.

So, let's get started.

The Chiefs have hired offense-minded Andy Reid as their new head coach. John Dorsey is their new General Manager and they've tagged Bob Sutton as their next DC. What we know from this group is that Reid likes an offense built around the pass and enjoys having mobile QBs. We know the Chiefs have a desperate need at the QB position and the #1 pick in the draft.

The scary hire was Bob Sutton. The Chiefs have spent a TON of resources building on the defensive side of the ball. Now, they've hired an offensive HC and a DC who didn't do too well as the DC for the Jets under Mangini. His schemes are bland, no blitzes, poorly designed, and never ranked higher than 16th overall. The Chiefs defense is a unit without a direction and being that Sutton has experience in the Tampa 2 4-3, the 2 gap 3-4, and now the 1 gap 3-4, he seems to be a Defensive Coordinator without a direction as well. This all leads me to believe there won't be too much attention given to the defensive side of the ball.

I COULD be wrong however because Andy Reid has a history of taking CBs and pass-rushing DEs in free agency and the draft. This could be a good thing considering Tyson Jackson is scheduled to make $14m in 2013 and is a prime target to be cut. The Chiefs also have a need at CB depth as well as at Safety. The Chiefs will also need at least one ILB and may also need to bring in another OLB depending on which defensive scheme they settle on. Glenn Dorsey is also scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent.

On the flip side, outside of the QB position, the Chiefs will also be looking at WRs with a decision needing to be made on Dwayne Bowe who's scheduled to be an UFA, evaluations needed on Breaston, Baldwin, McCluster, and the rest of the corp in order to effectively address the situation. There's also a decision that needs to be made in regards to Branden Albert who is scheduled to be an UFA as well. The offensive line has substantial depth, but letting Albert walk may require replacing him with a free agent or with the #1 overall pick. The loss of Ryan Lilja shouldn't do much to hurt the O-line, but the next man up needs to be backed up. The offensive line has always been a priority for Andy Reid and this year should be no different.

So, let's dive into the free agent pool. Top priority: QB
Not too many options here. With the Chiefs perhaps bringing in Sporano as the O-line coach, one has to wonder if Matt Moore gets a chance to come in and compete. Assuming Flacco doesn't hit the free agent market after taking his team to the AFC Championship (so far), the FA talent pool is MUCH shallower than the extremely shallow QB draft class.

Offensive Line: The Sporano connection rears its head again. The Chiefs have concerns about Branden Albert's back and what they can expect from him on a long-term deal. Ryan Clady will be the biggest name scheduled to be an UFA, but there's no way Manning allows one of the best pass protectors in the game to walk. The next big name on the list of UFAs is none other than former top pick by the Dolphins, Jake Long. Long also has injury concerns but may be enticed to come play in KC. Andy Levitre is the top OG scheduled to hit the free agent market. Contract talks have gone nowhere in the past between he and the Bills and may get the chance to hit the open market.

WRs: Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe, and Mike Wallace headline the WR crop this season. With the new offense being pass-heavy, I just don't see Reid allowing Bowe to walk. Bowe will be extended and Dorsey will reel in Greg Jennings. With Baldwin and Breaston filling out #3 and #4, the Chiefs will boast one of the best WR corps in the league and will provide the new QB plenty of weapons with which to destroy his opponent.

TEs: Jared Cook is one of, if not THE most athletic TEs in the league. He has almost ZERO interest in returning to Tennessee and with the new offense centered around the pass in KC, Cook could see this team as a very big opportunity for him to finally break out.

DL: The Chiefs DL will take a hit this year. Jackson will probably not be here. There's a good chance Dorsey won't have much interest in returning. The defensive side of the ball is going to be the hardest for us to fill out considering that I don't think the Chiefs staff has any idea what defense they want to run yet. I'm going to go out on a limb (where I'm sure I'll be all by myself) and say the Chiefs are going to run a 1-gap 3-4. I realize this is a defense Reid has never run. However, I think this is the defense that the Chiefs are currently best-suited for with Sutton seeing the success Ryan had with it in NY. If the Chiefs run this defense, they have Hali and Houston at DE and Poe inside with DJ at LB. That means they need 3 LBs to fill out the defense. So, there isn't too much need along the DL except for random depth which could be filled by the guys currently on the roster, with late picks in the draft, or free agents after the draft. This defense is the same ran in New York with the Giants AND Jets. Osi Umenyiora is a top pass rushing DE that may hit the FA market. He is 6'3 255 and runs a 4.7 40. Hali is 6'3 270 with a 4.7 40 and Houston is 6'3 258 with a 4.6 40. These guys can handle the position.

LBs: Anthony Spencer, Phillip Wheeler, Shaun Phillips, and Manny Lawson are the top names on the LB FA market. The Cowboys franchised Spencer last season and Phillips is 31. If they can get one of these guys, I think they'll be in good shape.

CBs: Chris Houston, Aqib Talib, Leodis McKelvin, Sean Smith, and Dominique Rogers-Cromartie are the top names of the CB FA class. Chris Houston would be my first choice. Talib will probably go back to NE after they win the Super Bowl. I could see this staff going after Rogers-Cromartie from Philly or maybe Sam Shields from Green Bay even though he'll be a RFA.

S: The Chiefs need a safety who's reliable to put next to Berry in the defensive backfield. Top names on the market are Jairus Byrd, Dashon Goldson, Kenny Phillips, William Moore, Pat Chung, and Loius Delmas. Reid isn't known for spending assets on safeties, so I wouldn't expect much from him at this position. Byrd would be a nice addition, but he'll cost a pretty penny.

The Chiefs replace Branden Albert with a less expensive upgrade in Luke Joekel. They get better value with this pick than if they had decided to take a QB #1 overall. Joekel fits into a line that boasts Jon Asamoah, Rodney Hudson, Andy Levitre, and Eric Winston with depth provided by in Stephenson and Allen.

2nd Round
ILB Alec Ogletree Georgia

Ogletree would look GREAT next to DJ inside. Ogletree is a DJ clone. Great sideline to sideline defender with elite speed. He may not be available here, but if he gets passed the Bengals, I think he'll slide. This pick helps with the LB overhaul done by the organization because of their shift from the 2-gap to a 1-gap 3-4.

3rd Round
3a. OLB Alex Okafor Texas
The Chiefs need one more LB for their overhaul and the OLB out of Texas was the lone bright spot on an underwhelming defense. If Okafor is still available in the 3rd, he could be a a steal for the Chiefs.

3b. (compensation for Carr) WR/QB Denard Robinson Michigan

There are worse things to draft late in the 3rd than a play-making athlete who has played the QB position. No one thought Russell Wilson could win the job at QB either.

4th Round *Traded

5th
DB Tyrann Mathieu

Off the field issues should not scare anyone away from top 5 talent in the 5th round. We need another play-maker in the secondary and you couldn't ask for a better one than the "Honey Badger" in the 5th round. (**may be worth a higher pick as we get closer to the draft)

6th Round
QB Logan Thomas Virginia Tech

I know... off the radar, right? Check this out: 6'6 240lb. Bigger than Big Ben, Joe Flacco, and Cam Newton. Newton runs a 4.58, Thomas a 4.67, and Ben a 4.78. Make no mistake, he's definitely a project. Ranked 108 in comp% and 8th in turnovers with a longer than you'd like throwing motion. He'll probably sit for a year or two to refine his craft before he truly competes to be the starter, but if he puts the pieces together, his talent could make him a star. There are worse ways to spend a 6th round pick.

I know it's probably not "big splash" approach to the QB position all of us want, but there's just no clear-cut answer for the Chiefs at #1 overall. There are injury questions about Albert and a VERY good LT option worth the #1 overall pick. Allowing Albert to walk clears up more space to sign some key free agents. If the Chiefs are able to turn a 4th round pick into two QBs who can come compete for the position, I think that's great value for that pick. Tyrod Taylor is a younger Mike Vick. If a mobile QB is what Reid wants, I think the better option is to go get a Tyrod Taylor or Pat White with a later round draft pick trade than wasting the first pick on Geno Smith. I think there's at LEAST an average, short-term solution in that group of QBs that could afford the Chiefs a different opportunity to fill the position long-term in the future.

Think about this for a second: Mike Vick, Tyrod Taylor, Geno Smith, Pat White, Josh Freeman, Jason Campbell, Logan Thomas, E.J. Manual, and Donovan McNabb could all be available to the Chiefs by way of draft, trade, or free agent signing this winter. All of them possess similar attributes. Think about what each of those QBs may cost compared to what they'd bring to the Chiefs and honestly assess which QB presents the greatest value. I'm sorry, but I look at that group of QBs and I just don't see one name that separates himself from the rest of the pack. So why would Geno Smith be worth the #1 overall pick when you could have any of the other guys for MUCH less.

From NFL Analysis
Smith was one of the game's hottest quarterback prospects after a sizzling early-season run saw him put up ridiculous numbers directing the Mountaineers' high-powered attack. Smith dazzled scouts with his arm strength, accuracy and touch while displaying exceptional poise in the pocket. However, Smith faltered down the stretch against the tougher defenses of the Big 12; scouts started to have concerns about his ability to find his secondary options in the route progression when opponents take away his primary receiver with blanket coverage. He struggled to consistently identify the open receiver in games against Oklahoma, Kansas State and Texas Tech, a trend that continued in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl against Syracuse. Although Smith completed 66.7 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and zero interceptions, he was sacked three times and repeatedly looked confused when the Orange took away his No. 1 option. As a result, Syracuse blew out West Virginia, 38-14.Plan for success: To capitalize on Smith's outstanding skills as a quick-rhythm pocket passer, an NFL offensive coordinator would be wise to incorporate several spread concepts. Bubble screens, slants and various seam throws are staples of the Mountaineers' offensive package, so using those routes as a foundation should help make Smith comfortable. In addition, the utilization of a play-action vertical passing game from the shotgun would create the big-play opportunities that Smith feasted on while directing Dana Holgorsen's offense.Pro comparison:Jason Campbell

From CBS
Clearly his statistics have been inflated by coach Dana Holgorsen's high-octane passing attack, but make no mistake Smith is blessed with some intriguing traits that helped him shred a talented Clemson defense with 401 passing yards and six touchdown tosses -- each of which eclipsed Orange Bowl records.
Despite his gaudy statistics, there are some warts to Smith's game. He takes virtually every snap from shotgun, is inconsistent with his set-up and delivery, often throwing off his back foot and has only average accuracy, at this time, on deeper throws -- especially those that require touch.
Against the notoriously leaky secondaries of the Big 12 conference, Smith is eye-popping statistics this season, perhaps earning himself all-conference, All-American and perhaps even Heisman consideration, but he does have mechanical issues to work on.

From NFL Analysis
Smith was one of the game's hottest quarterback prospects after a sizzling early-season run saw him put up ridiculous numbers directing the Mountaineers' high-powered attack. Smith dazzled scouts with his arm strength, accuracy and touch while displaying exceptional poise in the pocket. However, Smith faltered down the stretch against the tougher defenses of the Big 12; scouts started to have concerns about his ability to find his secondary options in the route progression when opponents take away his primary receiver with blanket coverage. He struggled to consistently identify the open receiver in games against Oklahoma, Kansas State and Texas Tech, a trend that continued in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl against Syracuse. Although Smith completed 66.7 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and zero interceptions, he was sacked three times and repeatedly looked confused when the Orange took away his No. 1 option. As a result, Syracuse blew out West Virginia, 38-14.Plan for success: To capitalize on Smith's outstanding skills as a quick-rhythm pocket passer, an NFL offensive coordinator would be wise to incorporate several spread concepts. Bubble screens, slants and various seam throws are staples of the Mountaineers' offensive package, so using those routes as a foundation should help make Smith comfortable. In addition, the utilization of a play-action vertical passing game from the shotgun would create the big-play opportunities that Smith feasted on while directing Dana Holgorsen's offense.Pro comparison:Jason Campbell

From CBS
Clearly his statistics have been inflated by coach Dana Holgorsen's high-octane passing attack, but make no mistake Smith is blessed with some intriguing traits that helped him shred a talented Clemson defense with 401 passing yards and six touchdown tosses -- each of which eclipsed Orange Bowl records.
Despite his gaudy statistics, there are some warts to Smith's game. He takes virtually every snap from shotgun, is inconsistent with his set-up and delivery, often throwing off his back foot and has only average accuracy, at this time, on deeper throws -- especially those that require touch.
Against the notoriously leaky secondaries of the Big 12 conference, Smith is eye-popping statistics this season, perhaps earning himself all-conference, All-American and perhaps even Heisman consideration, but he does have mechanical issues to work on.

Yeah, this def doesn't soun like a number 1 pick, an honestly to me not even a first rounder. We don't need to waste our pick in the next Jasin Campbell. I'd rather stick with Cassel another year (which I don't really want to do) vs waste our puck on a qb that lock onto his number 1 receiver and can't go thru his progressions. I hope we get the qb right regardless of who we take and from where.

132 posts in this thread... mostly about Geno Smith and after having read most of the posts, both good and bad on Smith, I'm pretty confident that Smith won't be the selection if the Chiefs hold onto the #1 pick. If we armchair GMs can find this many problems with Geno Smith, I'm confident that the Chiefs franchise have enough resources to logically surmise that Geno Smith is NOT worth the #1 overall pick... no matter how bad we need a QB.

As our GM Dorsey said when he was asked about a QB #1 overall a couple days ago, "I think there comes too steep of a price." I take two things away from this statement:

1. Dorsey seems to acknowledge the fact that team do, indeed reach in the draft to fill glaring holes on their teams as Ryfo suggests. Although I didn't acknowledge the point Ryfo was trying to make, it was well received. I realize teams reach to fill needs. I saw it first hand when Pioli took Jackson #3 overall and then again when he took Baldwin with the anticipation of replacing Bowe and then again when he took Poe just this last year... I get it. However...

2. The second thing I took away from Dorsey's statement was that he understands the point that I was trying to make... and it's that even if a player happens to fill a need, there is a point where a player becomes too expensive. In the draft, picks are the currency... in free agency, it's money and cap space. Just because a player fills a need in free agency, it doesn't mean you spend the majority of your resources on that player.

You need to find the best way to utilize your resources and spending 75% of your draft value on a player who doesn't deserve it is an EXTREMELY poor investment. The Chiefs have roughly 4000 points to spend in the draft and if they pick 1st, they'll spend 3000 of those points on whoever they take plus $4M in cap space each year... How ANYONE can think Geno Smith is worth that kind of investment is just mind-boggling to me.

A player of Andrew Luck's caliber is worth that kind of investment, but there is a dramatic difference in what is expected from Andrew Luck and what is expected from Geno Smith. Ask yourself if you honestly think the return on investment will be the same for the Chiefs with Geno Smith as it will be for Indy and Andrew Luck. If you don't think Smith offers Andrew Luck upside, why on earth would you spend the same amount for a lesser player? It doesn't make sense.

However, if you desperately need a QB (like the Chiefs do), but there isn't one worth the price at #1, it would make more sense to find a way work yourself into a position where taking a QB is worth the investment. It's like buying a car. Once you've spent the money, it's spent. Players, like cars, are depreciating assets. They may not lose half their value as soon as they put their cleats on, but they have a limited shelf life. Just like vehicles, you need your players to be worth the investment AND serve the purpose for which you pay a premium. If your purpose is strictly gas mileage, a Chevy Volt would be your best option... the problem is that we only have Corollas to choose from. We don't need to pay the price of a $40k Chevy Volt (Andrew Luck) if we're only going to get the benefits of an $18k Toyota Corolla (Geno Smith).

That's a HORRIBLE purchase. The Chiefs need to find a place in the draft where they're paying the price of what the players are worth. What the good teams in the league do, is pay a price of LESS than what the players are worth and maximize their assets. Is it any wonder that a team like the Chiefs who consistently over pay in the draft is one of the worst teams in the league? Now, at least half the fan base is advocating that the team keep overpaying for a guy like Geno Smith as if filling the QB position will somehow lead this franchise out of the darkness instead of good, sound, business and economic principals coupled with heavy investment in the scouting department.

At some point, people need to understand that success isn't delivered by players as much as it is delivered by scouting, sound economic principals, and good coaching. I think that for the first time since Vermeil, this team has a good coaching staff.

Clark Hunt seems to be a very successful business man. Hopefully, we'll start applying some of those principals to the Kansas City Chiefs franchise, because for the last 10-12 years, this franchise has been run into the ground... not by the Matt Cassells and Larry Johnsons of the world, but by the Carl Petersons and Scott Piolis who made poor business decisions including poor investments (Larry Johnson, Matt Cassell), poor draft picks (Sylvester Morris, Ryan Sims, Tyson Jackson), and poor trades (Scott Fujita and Matt Cassell) just to name a few. As great as some of the players have been for the Chiefs over the tenures of the last 2 GMs (including a couple good QBs), the fact remains that the Chiefs haven't seen a Super Bowl in 50 years.

It's not about the players... it's about the front office and coaching staff maximizing the value of their assets and providing a clear and successful direction for the franchise as a whole.

Mock Draft 1.1

Trade 2nd round pick to Minnesota who target the best QB available for picks 52 and 83 (3rd rd).

Trade pick 52 to the Eagles for QB Nick Foles.

Draft:

1st Round
LT Luke Joekel Texas A&M
The Chiefs replace Branden Albert with a less expensive upgrade in Luke Joekel. They get better value with this pick than if they had decided to take a QB #1 overall. Joekel fits into a line that boasts Jon Asamoah, Rodney Hudson, Andy Levitre, and Eric Winston with depth provided by in Stephenson and Allen.

3rd Round
LB Khaseem Greene Rutgers
He's a play-making, game changing LB who was also the back-to-back Big East defensive Player of the year. Greene had arguably the best junior and senior seasons of ANY Big East player. It's unknown as to which flavor of the 3-4 defense we'll be running, but it's a pretty good bet that we'll need LB help no matter what. One Derrick Johnson, one of the great values Greene offers is his versatility and ability to be extremely useful in ANY type of defensive scheme.

3rd Round
3a. (from Vikings)
QB Tyler Bray Tennessee
Tyler Bray is arguably the most talented QB in the 2013 crop. He's foregoing his senior year at Tennessee where he would probably be better served in his development. Bray is a great draft-and-develop prospect who would probably benefit greatly from sitting for a couple seasons to learn Andy Reid's system. The only problem I see with this pick is that Bray is as close to a statue in the pocket as there could possibly be and there haven't been too many of those drafted by Reid. But this is MY mock and I think Bray could be a good pick for the Chiefs if they can protect him.

3c. (compensation for Carr)
S Bacarri Rambo Georgia
The Chiefs need some stability next to Eric Berry. Rambo is a ball-hawking FS that would fit perfectly next to Berry... and let's be honest... that's a badass football name.

4th Round
RB Marcus Lattimore South Carolina
The Chiefs have decent depth behind Charles and this pick is probably superfluous, but c'mon... the best running back in this class is still on the board in the 4th round. There's very little downside to this selection. Yes, he's a risk having had 2 knee surgeries in the past 2 seasons. Gotta couple names for you though: Willis McGahee and Frank Gore. Both of those guys were in the same boat and have had pretty successful NFL careers. I wouldn't consider this player too much of an injury risk considering the circumstances that occurred to cause his injury. Lattimore is 6'0, 232 lbs and could essentially give the Chiefs a Jamaal Charles/Adrian Peterson 1-2 punch for the foreseeable future. Talk about a change of pace back. Can you imagine taking a beating from Lattimore for 6 to 8 plays and then chasing Charles 40 yards and then getting hit in the mouth from Lattimore the next play? ...wow.

5th
DB Tyrann Mathieu LSU (Sat out a year)
Off the field issues should not scare anyone away from top 5 talent in the 5th round. We need another play-maker in the secondary and you couldn't ask for a better one than the "Honey Badger" in the 5th round. (**may be worth a higher pick as we get closer to the draft)

6th Round
WR Ryan Swope Texas A&M
Swope has been A&M's go-to receiver when the Aggies have needed plays to be made. The kid has great hands, runs great routes, and is a fast-twitch player. The small, white WR will undoubtedly draw Wes Welker comparisons. Andy Reid's offense has a serious dependency on great route-runners with good hands... check and check.

7th Round
WR Marquise Goodwin Texas
Olympic athlete with elite speed and play-making ability. Sounds like a good WR option to throw in the mix at WR, KR, and PR.

Assuming the players are available, I really like the first 6 picks. The Chiefs will have a gluttony of WRs if they re-sign Dwayne Bowe, so I could be persuaded to take other players in the 6th and 7th rounds. I just think that when you get that deep in the draft, finding play-makers should be the priority and not necessarily trying to find players to plug holes.