But progress is likely to come slowly, if at all, with neither side seeming prepared to make the significant compromises necessary to reach the kind of deal envisioned by many outsiders: a Transnistria with a large degree of autonomy, but that remains a part of Moldova.

“Ultimately, there will have to be some sort of compromise,” says Philip Remler, the head of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s mission in Moldova, which is working to end the conflict. “There’s been too much zero-sum thinking on all sides.”

For now, Mr. Remler and the OSCE are focused on confidence-building measures. “There’s very little trust. We’re trying to build that up,” Mr. Remler says.

The authorities in Chisinau and the Transnistrian capital, Tiraspol, are discussing changes to customs arrangements and plans to restart freight rail service that would cross Transnistria into Ukraine.

There have been some signs of progress. Moldovan Prime Minister Vlad Filat traveled to Tiraspol last year to watch a soccer match and met with Transnistrian President Igor Smirnov. The two sides have agreed to restart passenger rail service linking Moldova, Transnistria and Ukraine.

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Emerging Europe Real Time provides sharp analysis and insight into what’s making news in Central and Eastern Europe. Drawing on the expertise of our reporters in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey, the site provides an inside track on economics, politics and business in this emerging part of the European continent.