Pattern Recognition

Nothing seems to be happening with the “ultimate deal” (the Trump peace plan) but that is to be expected with the up-coming mid-term elections. If Trump wins “bigly” taking both the house and senate he will have destroyed the Democratic Party. His strategy of divisiveness and confusion seems to be working and he has chalked up big wins with the appointment of SCOTUS and the negation of the Meuller investigation and “Stormy”. The wobbles in the stock market effecting assets values will do little to harm his core constituents. With a reasonable win under his belt we can expect the peace process to proceed. Both Trump’s backers and his opponent’s backers are Jewish billionaires with seemingly different agendas.

The big picture emerging in the Middle East is that we have an Israel-America-Saudi Alliance supported (at least in part) by other Sunni states (Egypt, Jordan etc) versus Syria-Russia-Iran-Hezbolla (a Shiite alliance). Of course allegiances are complex and often shifting (cf. Turkey). If Israel is “removed” from the equation by making peace with the Sunnis then expect either regime change or war with Iran. In order to “make peace” the Palestinian problem needs to be neutralized.

Peace is being negotiated by Kushner (Trumps son-in law) with his aide Greenblat, both are Jewish and pro-Israel and no Muslim representative is on the team. Meanwhile the Palestinians are being starved of funds in the lead up to the “peace process”.

According to Robert Fisk, one of two of the Western World's best journalists on Middle Eastern affairs, the Donald's big beautiful peace deal with the Palestinians came down to the Saudi's bank rolling a buyout of Palestinian land. The question is whether MbS (the prince) and his father are in agreement with this proposal. It seems that the father of MbS refused and pushed for the original Saudi package which hinged on two States with the 1967 borders dividing the two.

However, after the recent fiasco in Saudi with the journalist it seems that a Saudi Coup is "imminent" as the Crown Prince's uncle arrives to oust "toxic" MbS.[1] We obviously do not know what is going on behind the scenes but recent actions have put MbS in an intolerable position and he already has many internal enemies in the Royal family. Perhaps this reckless, cruel and precipitate action was orchestrated deliberately to damage MbS? Either that or he is incredibly stupid and arrogant. Who knows? What we can say is that everything can change in a moment.

Details of the plan that have “leaked” are (according to Fisk) as follows;

For the drip-feed of detail which is emerging about the Trump-Kushner “ultimate deal” in Israeli newspapers – the venerable Haaretz in the lead – is that Palestinians will have to “abandon East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestine”, that Israel will withdraw from a handful of villages east and north of Jerusalem – the measly Abu Dis among them – to create a Potemkin “capital”, but will remain forever in the Old City. That a Palestinian state will be completely demilitarised (so much for “security”), but that every Jewish colony constructed illegally on Arab land – for Jews and Jews only – will remain, and that Israel will control the entire Jordan Valley. Right of return? Forget it....All this nonsense depends on the largesse of Saudi Arabia – whose bungling crown prince appears to be arguing with his kingly father, who does not want to abandon the original Saudi initiative for a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital – and the feebleness of King Abdullah of Jordan, whose country’s IMF-imposed financial suffering has provoked unprecedented riots and the fall of his government, and the support of Egypt’s field marshal/president who will supposedly be happy to impose law and financial benefits on the Egyptian-Gaza border. Oh yes, and there will be no real contact between Gaza and the West Bank. Hamas has been forgotten, it seems…..no East Jerusalem, no end to colonisation, no recognition of the right to return, no state, no future. Just cash.[2]

It is unlikely that the Palestinians will give up their desire for their own state for a “fist full of dollars” even if Gaza can be turned into a “new Dubai” (or Singapore). We shall see what happens, perhaps starvation of funds and humiliation is intended to provoke an all out war that will justify further expulsions. Who knows? Everything in the Middle East is up for grabs and things can change very rapidly.