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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

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23 comments:

I just witnessed a ~600k property be sold in less than 30 days in my neck of the woods, before the first price reduction, at roughly the same price it was worth last July (I’ve been keeping track closely, hoping for one to jump in with a lowball offer).

I’m getting to the conclusion that you can defy market trends if you have a very desirable home, in an outstanding location, and you stage it professionally. Bummer.

Where’s the realtor that keeps saying “each home is its own entity?” I always thought that was real-estate-seller mumbo-jumbo, but that fact keeps hitting me in the face!

Here is some information I am dying to see, but haven’t found anywhere:
– historical trend data on the use of 30 year fixed, option ARM, 100% finance, no-doc, average % of down-payment and other mortgages types for the Seattle area.
– Trend data for the percentage of accepted offers that fail to close for the Seattle area.
– Trend data for the percentage of mortgage applications that are declined for the Seattle area

Maybe it’s just not possible to find this kind of data, but I just don’t feel that the standard inventory and sales stats give us a full picture of how different (or out of ballance) our market is to the past.

One of the things that happened during the boom is that among all the hype and hysteria, buyers came to believe that everything was valuable and will continue to increase in value. The idea that you had to get in while you could drove prices up in every segment of the market. The market became homogenized into one big expensive thing which is not accurate.
After the boom, when the buyers pull back, the market forces that shape pricing can go back to work. Properties on loud streets, north facing hillsides, next door to Fred Meyers, etc..are not selling in 2 hours with multiple offers any more. Go Figure. Those prices are going to soften up a lot faster, and sit on the market a lot longer than the primo properties that every one wants. Even in a particular neighborhood there is the concept of location within location. Certain properties are going to rock the market no matter what the market is doing.

I’d like to hear who people are using for financing and representation in Real Estate. I’d like to know specific names of who, what they did that earned their business going forward into 2008-9, and why they will use them again. I want to hear of some actual Agents that earned their 3% and 6% commissions and give some credit where credit is do. We already know about the Red Fin people and MLS 4 Owner people.

**But who are the 6% people that still earn your business? Knowing what you know now about 500 Realty and Red Fin who still gets to keep YOUR money? ** Who are the Mtg reps that pick up their phone on each call? We are adding to our lender page and want to hear about some stellar performers.

Hi Alex, I think we are somewhere between Jan 2007 prices and fall 2007 prices, depending on the geographic area and quality of the property. For example, Greenlake, house not condo analysis:

Greenlake is always strong, if the property is what the majority of buyers want in that area: OWC, 1000+ sq feet on main level, 4000+ sq foot lot, quiet street. Buyers will often prefer Grandma’s house in dated condition to a slicked up house redone, but not redone in good period detailing. Those houses can sit a longer time too, and the seller just doesn’t get a clue as to ‘why’ ….

So many of the houses that are sitting, not selling, have teeny formal living spaces, teeny little bedrooms, on a teeny little lot. Add a low-ceiling basement, and on or too-close to a busy street, and you have the formula for this-won’t-sell-at-peak-pricing-because-it-just-isn’t-worth-it!!

If you are a seller, and your property isn’t selling, ask yourself this:

A column on the right similar to the inventory numbers that shows more of the changing stats that are often discussed would be great. The monthly median price in value and yoy or mom change, numbers of foreclosures, and CSHPI updates. Though this info usually makes it in through postings and comments, it would be pretty cool to see stable reference points on the front page like the inventory numbers currently provide. Woof!

“”Agree with couger. Maybe ask the spammers to buy banner advertising instead of trying to drum up business in every helpful “comment.”””

Probably someone is clicking on said spammers’ sites, making it worthwhile for them to advertise here.
I agree, charge people who are advertising or remove any comments they make that smell like advertising.

That’s going to be a tough call. When is someone contributing to the discourse and when is someone promoting themselves?
I like to think that I contribute to the discourse without promoting myself, and at this point I’ve feel welcomed into this odd community of bubbleistas, but I also realize that because I’m an agent I am wearing a target even though I take positions contrary to the “official realtor” line.
Am I a spammer simply because I have a link to my website if you click my name ?

I was dying to bid on it myself – but I believe in Prophet Tim (for all sorts of selfish reasons), so I was waiting for a couple price reductions first. Apparently, whoever bid on the house doesn’t believe in the Holy Bubble :)

My thinking: this is ~590k as of last July (see comps). So given general market uncertainty, and given this is an above-average house (high-end houses take more heat on downturns), a good price for today is ~550-560.

That all said, there’s some chance the winning offer was a lowball – I’m hoping it was, so it will set a good comp for the next one that comes up in the neighborhood.

Re: Alex’s “house”-
There are very few nearby true comparables, based on similar in location, size, year built, style, etc..
18960 131st PL NE sold in September for 575,000, and 20019 135th Ave NE sold a few weeks ago for 589,990, but that house is 400 square foot larger…the home in question was only on the market for about two weeks, so we won’t know for a while what it actually sold for.
Just because one person overpaid doesn’t necessarily mean that other people in Woodinville are doing the same, but what it does mean is that not a lot of Woodinville homes of this vintage and size have sold over the last six months. I did not check on homes currently for sale there.

Being that the basic premis of the blog is that now in not the time to buy… I’d like to see a little more on what to do in order to be ready to buy when the time is right.

For instance, some info on how to hold onto your down payment in the face of mounting inflation.

As some of the press articles have suggested, inflation is speeding up allowing homes prices in dollars to keep from appearing to drop (as much). How are those on this forum, who want to keep their down payment in one piece, doing it? How are they avoiding risk while beating inflation?