Isaac takes aim – look out New Orleans and Biloxi

The track models have all been pointing to the Gulf coast rather than central Florida, this plot of 10 meter wind velocity through August 31st is from WeatherBell’s newly setup HWRF model website by hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue:

The brown colors near the eye indicate sustained wind speeds of 100 to 130 knots (115 to 150 mph). That would make Isaac likely a category 4 hurricane when it makes landfall, with likely higher gusts. The track takes it across the Florida keys, near Ft. Meyers, FL, and onto the Gulf Coast. It is expected to intensify in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico once it clears the west coast of Florida. The turn towards the NNE isn’t forecast to happen until after landfall in the model.

UPDATE:The new forecast for today has lower wind speeds and the track has shifted west to the delta of the Mississippi river:

Here’s a more detailed closeup 4 panel model view for the time Isaac is forecast to make landfall:

And here is the update for today:

Obviously a lot can change, but this bears watching and getting out of the way of. I’ll have updates to this page soon, and an Isaac reference page will be setup on WUWT for keeping track of it.

Rainfall from Isaac looks to be between 10 and 20 inches along its path:

here’s the update for Sunday, about the same, but in the worst place possible:

The median historical damage from this set of analogue storms is $1.6 billion, with an incredibly wide range. Currently the NHC projects Issac to make landfall along the Gulf coast as a category 2 storm. There are 5 historical analogues in the set above with normalized damage ranging $1 billion (Georges, 1998) to $4.4 billion (Gustav, 2008). Category 3 and 4 storms have resulted in much higher damage. I’ll update these numbers as Issac gets closer to the Gulf Coast.

I am not so sure this won’t intensify. The new model tracks are a lot West of the old well away from the mid-Florida coast, giving a long sea track and with many now looking like a direct hit on Lake Pontchartrain which is the worst direction for New Orleans. (if you want to see all the various models you can go to http://spaghettimodels.com/ a kind of one-stop shop for meteorological models in the South East.)
The Gulf of Mexico SSTs are in the mid 80s F which is around average for this time of year and if the wind shear stays favorable this could be a nasty storm.

This is clearly Barack Obama’s doing. He’s trying to get even for the hurricane he claimed George Bush caused. Need proof, look at the timing with the RNC events. Now that Obama is President and has all that power, he likes using it, too. ;-)

It doesn’t look as bad as Katrina. If it shifts to the west of NO then it’s bye-bye for NO. I’ve had great times on Bourbon St there years ago.

The worst track is the one currently forecast with storm surge into Lake Pontchartrain that would really stress the New Orleans flood defenses as will the huge amount of rain – 10 – 20 inches. I think Le Quartier Français will survive as always as it was built by people who thought about flooding and storms. But much of the other more recent areas of New Orleans are below sea level including the newly rebuilt areas of the 9th Ward.

[I had thought it would have been sensible to dig canals between all the flooded 9th Ward houses use the earth that was dug out to raise the houses and then you have water front property above sea level with roads in front and canals behind. The canals would slow and dissipate storm surges protecting the other parts of New Orleans. It would have led to a big jump in land and house values and have brought more builders in. ]

If you live anywhere along the Gulf Coast from near New Orleans, eastward to the Florida Panhandle, you need to really pay attention to Isaac, and where he is headed. His exact track and strength is not yet set in stone, and will likely change several more times over the next couple of days. But make no mistake folks, he has his sights set on the Gulf of Mexico, and he is coming your way if you live in the above mentioned areas.

However, the various computer models (NHC Models), GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, CMC have all been tracking Isaac inland between these areas by next Tuesday or Wednesday. The latest model trends today have been shifting Isaac’s forecast track further west….possibly making landfall in the New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile, Pascagoula areas on Tuesday. This may change.

Isaac has the potential to become at least a Category 3 Hurricane, maybe even stronger, once he enters the central Gulf of Mexico south of the Florida Peninsula. The surface water temperatures over the central Gulf of Mexico are about as warm as they get….mid 80’s to near 90.

Isaac is already a very large cyclone, and may get even bigger in size once he encounters these very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Model forecasts also indicate that the winds aloft will be very light, with little to no shear when Isaac enters this area. Environmental conditions will be nearly ideal for Isaac to potentially explode into a monster of a Hurricane.

Isaac is no joke, and please do not wait until the last minute trying to decide if you are going to prepare for his landfall, if you live in the above mentioned areas.

I hope, I hope, I hope…. Isaac gives the GOP some breathing room to re-think their American taliban Constituional Amendment forced birthing position and the extent they ain’t so far from Akin after all….

SS says:
August 25, 2012 at 6:33 pm
“The Euro model saw this solution four days ago. The GFS has done quite poorly with the evolution of this storm.”

Yes, GFS has not performed well for this storm, thankfully! The farther west it tracks the better for my area although as we remember with Charley in 2004, it ain’t over til the fat lady passes by. In addition, we have had lots of rain recently in this area up through Tampa so even just a few more inches all at once may create a huge problem.

The latest track from the NHC has Isaac hitting closer to Pensacola but either way it could be bad, very bad. The trajectory in these models brings the storm surge directly in towards New Orleans and if it’s a Cat 4 storm the chance of a repeat of Katrina will be VERY high. Definitely a serious situation.

“I had thought it would have been sensible to dig canals between all the flooded 9th Ward houses use the earth that was dug out to raise the houses and then you have water front property above sea level with roads in front and canals behind.”

Wouldn’t this be a good time for a geo-engineering experiment? There was a lot of talk at the time of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon leak about the effects of hurricane winds on the spilled oil.

Sadly and despite popular expectations, Nature itself took care of that oil relatively quickly. But knowing that it can, is there time to arrange a small spill to test those earlier predictions? After all, there have been serious proposals for spraying different substances to somehow sap these storms of energy. Since crude oil naturally seeps into the Gulf continuously, why not test and find out what really happens with oil?

Red Lady, what’s that you say, something about MoveOn and Obama controlling a woman’s body.

Why not, they seem successful at controlling a woman’s mind. Your mind. What’s left of it anyway.

“win the election. Go Isaac!”

I told you our Democratic-Socialists would be going down this path. It’s in their genes. It is not a great leap from here to where all the other reds and socialists always wind up.

They root for massive death and destruction because they think they can spin it to their favor. Vote these vermin out. There is no reason to elect a Red or a Socialist for any reason. The Red Lady has made it nice and clear.

“I had thought it would have been sensible to dig canals between all the flooded 9th Ward houses use the earth that was dug out to raise the houses and then you have water front property above sea level with roads in front and canals behind.”

And those canals would drain to … where?

They would be just like the other canals in New Orleans sea level canals between Mississippi and Main Outal Canal perhaps. Once houses are above the water level these canals can fill and empty naturally. Perhaps by letting Mississippi outflow into them it would slow the river flow which is currently so fast that the barrier islands have been eroded away as silt that keeps them has been carried directly out into the Gulf.

PSolar, actually, “analogue” has a first definition that is exactly how Pielke meant it. It is “something that is an analogy to something else.” But I realize it must look funny if you didn’t know that word!

Well, one supposes we’ll see if Obama can really stop the rise of the oceans and stop those terrible storms devastating the land. But it’s only been four years and a month since Berlin. I guess he’ll go to TPC of Louisianna to survey the damage and maybe get a round or two in before the crowds return.

For sure, all the pols will be presssing that big red button this week. “Greyhound bus” Nagel was replaced by one of Mary Landrieu’s clan, Mitch Landrieau. Obama, Jindal and Landrieau along tihe the Czars of DC accompanied by the “Better than Bush” orchastra it will be quite a spectacle. Given the low bar of this years campaign, expect a theme to be played called “we were right to close the Gulf to oil until we get that CO2 under control. Darn W anyway.”

One hopes that folks in LA don’t have short memories. You can rebuild houses under sea level – if you’re alive afterwards.

First (?) serious trike in seven years, and it (more or less) takes aim on the same city?
Will they blame oh!bummer! for not making a bigger effort to control the natural climate, or is it still Bush`s fault?

This is troubling. We have a friend who moved back to NOLA not long after Katrina. I know he has the sense to get out, but I still worry.

I was intitially a bit skeptical when I saw this track because all of the official tracks I could find still had Isaac tracking up the Florida coast into the panhandle, but last night at 11, they had him starting to veer further West. I haven’t checked in yet this morning to see if their official forecasts still have him turning more westerly as this track projects. At least Louisiana has officials at the state level who will get things moving this time around.

We better all be prepared to take some more pain at the gas pumps, too, at this rate. Isaac is going to hit some platforms and some refineries I’m guessing.

As to the Lady in Red, why do her kind only believe in acts of God when they think they can score political points off them?

The levees have been strengthened to some degree. As a Louisiana resident, I hope we don’t have to find out if the work was sufficient. I don’t know if New Orleans and the surrounding coastal area can really be protected from a true Cat 3. The closing of the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (MRGO) should help some, but there are simply too many weak points to protect from a strong storm surge.

Probably, Anthony’s site should not be a political venue. However, I have been misunderstood.
I am a conservative, even more a libertarian.

At the same time I am concerned about the (unchanged) GOP platform to preserve fetal life, over the wishes of the woman (oven). Wickedly, I call it the American taliban, forced birthing movement. The GOP has always had the platform, but, now, clawing back state by state (forced ultrasounds, forced structural changes to clinics, etc.), they are getting closer to:

forcing all women to birth. Fetuses gain rights; women lose ’em.

I hope that Isaac gives the GOP time to rethink this position because, all of the big issues we should be focusing upon, this issue terrifies undecided/independent women voters:

These are not Dem slime ads. Sadly, as crude as Akin has seemed, he *is* the future of the GOP vis a vis women’s rights.

I just hope there is some serious hustling within the GOP. Rare — but legal — would be fine. But sending women back to the 1950’s, to back alleys, is not going to win them an election.

I hope the GOP uses this day to figure out its position on back alley abortions, its position as a stand-in for the taliban in America, forcing all women, all the time, to comply with their view of morality.

I will remind “Lady in Red” that several of the supposed “Republican” women in that commercial are long-time voting and registered democrats. At least one, and maybe others, is deeply involved in democrat and socially extremely liberal issues and causes.

“Republican” women? Seems not.

It is like the democrat activist who deliberately registered at a Catholic College in Washington DC at a rate of over 20,000.00 dollars tuition per year for her law degree, while living downtown in the most expensive city in the country, so she could protest that Catholic University’s religious doctrine of not providing free abortions to their students. As 48 million potential taxpayers could have told you, a greater death toll in history than anyone but Stalin and Mao, the costs of your obsession and lies about abortion is immense.

And, like the 7 million false Obama Facebook “likes”, their false CAGW doctrines, their false economic doctrines, the biased and bigoted racial doctrines of the left, these lies by the democrat party continue as they intrude into religion and religious issues.

I believe in science, facts, repeatable experiments. I believe in truth. I believe in limited govt. I believe in conservation and respect for the environment, picking up beer cans and “taking out what you brought in.”

I believe in babies and dogs and cats. I believe that calves and baby lambs and goats and pigs should be treated with love and respect.

I do not believe that American women should be turned into birthing ovens, without rights. Abortion is a tough decision, but it’s a decision between a woman and her doctor, just like many other medical decisions. That is all.

(Hell, I ponder the sadness of the SPCA murder of all the love and life-filled cats and puppies — who don’t want to die.)

If turning the clock back to the 1950’s is really what the GOP wants, sobeit. If Isaac is not about a God-sent respite to rethink, ok. ….Lady in Red

This isn’t the thread for any of the above. There are plenty of political blogs out there, including one of mine, to beat your collective chests on about what colour your political stripe is. For the RNC and Tampa, ISAAC may turn out to be a blessing. The web is full of chatter right now about a violent “occupy” for Tampa and the convention, that if happens as is being called for, will make the US politcal system moot. ISAAC might just help prevent a much worse storm.

Back to ISAAC and the NHC… I wonder if there is a renewed emphasis for NOAA to make their predictions on increased numbers of named storms come true. As we noticed last year, their seems to be an interest in pouncing on depressions and giving them names as soon as possible – Joyce being the latest example of a minor dust-up that dissipated almost as fast as NOAA posted a name for it.
There also seems to be an urgency in ISAAC NHC discussions to want to call it a hurricane as soon as possible. Maybe this is instrumental in US emergency management strategies, don’t know, but they seem intent on finding any evidence of a 65knot wind in order to declare it, however fleeting.

I’ve lived on the Gulf Coast for over 50 years, and hunkered down through any number of hurricanes. The hysteria that precedes them, as a general rule, far outweighs the actual damage.

Katrina was a devastating storm, crushing Mississippi and Louisiana, just like Camille 35 years before. There is no indication yet that Isaac will acquire the type of energy of a small powerful wind storm like Camille, or a large powerful water storm like Katrina.

Frequently more people die in the evacuation or the aftermath than in the storm. Remember, the levies broke in New Orleans AFTER Katrina passed. People should follow the official posture which is run from water, and shelter from wind. The storm surge of a typical category 1 or 2 hurricane is 5 to 8 feet or so and in a very small localized area, especially when compared to the large size of the storm viewed from space. The lack of power and the disruption from moving everything inside for protection, picking up limbs, cutting and removing trees, and taking everything back outside, lasts for a day to a week again over a relatively small area. Inland tornadoes, generally small (albeit devastating) and local flooding from rain are an issue.

There is no reason to panic or over-analyze this storm. Watch it, prepare for it, and be ready to pitch in for the cleanup.

If you go to Weather Underground, they use 6 models and show the average position/track from the six. But if you click on the map with the individual models you see that four of them track much closer to New Orleans and the other two are outliers. As I recall, the UKMET is not a very good model anyway. So several of the best models track it further west as does a good european model that does not want its forecasts used or linked to other webpages but will give it on their own website and release the occasional track to the Weather channel.

So it looks like it will go further west. Hopefully if it stays moving fast it can’t intensify much.

I will plug my nose as I vote the Republican ticket (Obama made me change from a life-long dem to a registered independent). And then I will fight tooth and toenail to keep nosy guvmnt carpet baggers out of my bedroom, womb, and pew, and any other private medical, spiritual belief, or coupling decision I make, whether others think those decisions are my right or not to make. It especially rankles me when a man, not of my immediate family, tries to tell me what to do regarding those private decisions. If elected, and Mitt and Paul try to do that, I will be as disappointed in them as I am in Obama. And I am DEEPLY disappointed in Obama.

Do we need to force both parties to rid themselves of private decision planks, from light bulbs to sexual positions? We may have to so they will focus on the economy and putting the federal government back to what it was originally designed to do. It certainly did not come into my great-great grandmother’s bedroom, pew, or sick room to tell her what to do. Hell, not too long ago we pledged allegiance to the flag and just the flag, not someone’s concept of being “under God” like we now do.

If I have to, I will throw some tea into the Boston harbor in the middle of that hurricane!!!!!

On Geo Sat it looks like it doesn’t have a chance to regain much energy, a lot like Irene last fall.

Irene was a coast crawling rain maker (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092011_Irene.pdf ) Isaac once it clears Cuba has a long track over warm water with upper level winds that will allow development. If you look instead at GOES East Infrared imagery http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-rb.html – you will see the sudden upsurge in infrared as the convection is starting to increase in the Florida Straits (all that latent heat being released). It is better to prepare for a Cat 5 and get a Cat 1, than have a hurricane party and have to fight for survival. Anyone from Tallahassee to Lafayette needs to watch this storm carefully. It is not small – the center of circulation is currently just North of Cuba but the leading edge squall lines are already up to Orlando and the central Florida East coast.

For those interested the actual energy removed from the ocean and released as latent heat by cloud rain formation by one hurricane in one day is “equivalent to 200 times the world-wide electrical generating capacity”. This is by far the engine and main energy of a hurricane. But there is also the kinetic energy generated per day again taken from the ocean heat – “This is equivalent to about half the world-wide electrical generating capacity”
From NOAA FAQ at: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D7.html

I’ve been watching these storms since the early 50s. My prediction is the eye of the storm (or center, if there is no eye) will come ashore just east of Mobile Bay. BUT, the tracking has been moving steadily west over the last few days. If this continues happening it’s bad news for New Orleans. Any other predictions as to where the eye of the storm will cross from you experts?

I am still clueless and confused as to why we as an ” Intelligent ” species refuses to learn from past disasters and without fail will rebuild in the very same place natural disasters tend to strike. I like to think that I have a level of compassion that is comparable or higher then most but in these cases I am really starting to believe that a Darwin approach should prevail or at the very least if you choose to be stupid please don’t make me financially responsible for your poor choices.

I’ve been watching these storms since the early 50s. My prediction is the eye of the storm (or center, if there is no eye) will come ashore just east of Mobile Bay. BUT, the tracking has been moving steadily west over the last few days. If this continues happening it’s bad news for New Orleans. Any other predictions as to where the eye of the storm will cross from you experts?

I am not an expert – just someone who is living in the line of fire ;-) so I tend to watch carefully. But if you look at these web pages:

seven years ago the 1st storm I followed became Katrina on my then new snail-pace dial up net……
after 3 net=free years I sign up for mobile tortoise broadband and started by following a storm that had not yet become 9 and is now Isaac.!!!!! deja voodoo as they might say ..
glad I live in N. Ireland…on a drumlin… waiting for the next ice-age.!!!!

“I had thought it would have been sensible to dig canals between all the flooded 9th Ward houses use the earth that was dug out to raise the houses and then you have water front property above sea level with roads in front and canals behind. The canals would slow and dissipate storm surges protecting the other parts of New Orleans. It would have led to a big jump in land and house values and have brought more builders in. ”

-You just made a good description of how it is done in Florida.
And to your credit…is Fla real estate successful? Oh yeah.

My farm is in a geographical niche never hit by a hurricane according to local lore, but over the mountains they have struck. Devastation is hard to categorize since hits occurred miles apart by distinct hurricanes years apart.
Best of luck to all at landfall from wind & with the ensuing rain. Issac in the Bible came to his aged parents & means “he laughs” – hope it’s lighthearted this time.

Lady,
Have a cup of coffee… and rethink your screed.
This is an inappropriate venue for abortion discussions other than to acknowledge that, regardless of how a child was/is conceived, the child is the blameless innocent.
MtK

I don’t *care* if the Repubs lose the election. Hell, I don’t care if they all die in Tampa, in Isaac.

They may do what they wish.

My (silent) prayer was merely that the damn ole men (and women?) re-thunk the GOP position about forcing women to birth, about a damn Const. Amendment (or clawing back women’s rights, state by state).

*I* just re-thunk. I *do* care if Republicans, libertarians to come, lose. I fear it is likely to happen. The issue won’t be CAGW, or the economy, or the debt. It will be the fear by independents of the GOP need to control women’s bodies….. that small govt, real science, is only important when it is the other guy’s (gun control NOT abortion) agenda.

The important thing, friends: science, science, science. THAT is why you are here. *Science* is important and, if it becomes important for women to become mere ovens, it is *also* important to stop the killing at the SPCA. Kill to eat. No more. ….Lady in Red

It does appear to be drawing a bead on the New Orleans area which has suffered enough recently. And as you raise the GOP convention at Tampa; I wonder how much time a sitting president should spend personally dealing with the aftermath of a national disaster? a week or so?

It does appear to be drawing a bead on the New Orleans area which has suffered enough recently. And as you raise the GOP convention at Tampa; I wonder how much time a sitting president should spend personally dealing with the aftermath of a national disaster? a week or so?
————————
I’m an Englishman. I leave such questions to Americans.

The fresh water reservoirs and aquifers of central and southern Florida are largely dependent on replenishment from hurricanes and the torrential rains they bring. While hurricanes are ‘bad’ for the people that live in their paths, the 12 inches to 24 inches of rain they can bring are ‘good’ for Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades and all of ther denizens. These fresh water reservoirs are heavily drawn on for the southern Florida cities potable water supplies as well. A 12″ – 24″ deluge is needed…..

Steve says:
August 26, 2012 at 9:33 am
Jeff D @ 8:40am — They keep rebuilding there because the entire US economy relies on there being a port city at the end of the river, and the spot where NOLA sits is the best place to put one.

I read that when a bridge across the river was built at New Orleans, the city deliberately made it with a low clearance so ocean-going ships couldn’t bypass it and offload upstream. Maybe, if the storm knocks down the bridge, it should be rebuilt higher. Maybe it should be rebuild higher anyway.

She’s been a regular poster here for at least a year, unlike some of her critics.
Initially, she only made a one-sentence comment, in the context of a comment of others about the effect of the storm on the convention.

Isaac has been fighting dry air, wind shear and land interaction for the past week. Still, it is a very large circulation and has a lot of potential. Conditions will likely be quite good for strengthening in the Gulf and it will have about 65 hours to do so, which is plenty of time. I expect that Isaac will make landfall as a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. This will put an end to the long and unusual drought of major hurricanes crossing the US coast.

Despite this record setting major hurricane drought, the usual voices will proclaim Isaac an example of climate change and how things are getting worse. The reality is that hurricanes like this have always happened and always will, but usually a lot more often than they have lately.

No matter where it hits, it will be a disaster. The people impacted and the people responding will need our prayers and support.

(Lady in Red…What rights do women lose when they are pregnant? When my wife was pregnant…she seemed to gain a lot more rights!)

” I expect that Isaac will make landfall as a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. This will put an end to the long and unusual drought of major hurricanes crossing the US coast. ”

Well, we could get a pool going. Presently its having all kinds of trouble becoming even a cat 1. Winds speeds appear to have dropped some and its a ways off from being a cat 1 yet. NHC keeps trying to call the leading edge a protypical eyewall, but at the moment this is still just one big sloppy cyclone.. Cenrre of the low is just sw of Key West. Pretty slow moving at the moment. Put me down for a flimsy Cat 1 by the time it reaches the gulf coast. :)

I don’t like the latest computer prediction at all. That would push the surge westward along the coast, gathering strength until it piled up on the delta. We are talking a twenty foot surge. It’s a worst case scenario.

I was on holiday in New England when Katrina came in. I remember watching Weather Channel each night (I am from the UK!), and for most of the week beforehand, it was forecast to come ashore north of Miami as a run of the mill Category 2 or 3 storm.

At the last moment it veered south and just skirted over the Keys. It was only then that New Orleans was threatened,as it would otherwise have blown itself out over land, and, from memory, they only had a couple of days warning by then.

Lady in Red says:
August 26, 2012 at 6:58 am
I believe in science, facts, repeatable experiments. I believe in truth. I believe in limited govt. I believe in conservation and respect for the environment, picking up beer cans and “taking out what you brought in.”

I believe in babies and dogs and cats. I believe that calves and baby lambs and goats and pigs should be treated with love and respect…….

__________________________-

But, do you believe that all human beings have a right to live, even if a doctor and a child’s parent wants to kill a pre-born human being?

Framing the argument is a misused skill used by more than just the radical left wing environmentalists behind CAGW.

The right to kill other human beings is not an easy prerogative to give up, but changing what is the truth is not such an option.

Then respect the science. If it has achieved the stage of development where outside of a female’s body it is a living viable child with the rights afforded such, then this should be recognized. The difference between dough and a loaf of bread is not whether it has been removed from the oven. “Inside or outside” should not be the sole quantifier as to whether something is a child, at that stage “disposal” should be limited to birthing (induced labor and/or c-section at mother’s request allowable) with the mother signing away parental rights and freed of parental responsibilities. Also, as medicine’s ability to successfully nurture “preemies” has increased, the “age of recognition” can be adjusted younger to reflect this.

If the argument comes from a libertarian and/or equality standpoint, then acknowledge the currently-unalterable biology that makes females the carrier of offspring and also that both a male and a female are involved. For what starts as an act of mutual consent, the male should also have rights. If he does not desire offspring then he should be able to demand termination. If the female wishes to continue then he shall have neither parental rights nor responsibilities, as he has already decided he will not be a parent to the resulting child. Likewise he may decide a pregnancy will continue, at least unto the “age of recognition” stage mentioned above, provided he will assume all parental rights and responsibilities. He would of course assume all further related costs.

Until technology advances to where artificial and/or non-human wombs are usable equivalent alternatives, policy should recognize human females as the only carrier of human offspring and the practical consequences thereof, for both males and females.

I’ve been watching the satellite loops. Its a strange storm. You think you can see the center of the rotation and then a few frames later the center seems to have jumped a fair distance to the W NW. Almost like a tornado cycling and back building but this one rebuilds to the leading edge.

Caleb says:
August 26, 2012 at 12:51 pmI don’t like the latest computer prediction at all. That would push the surge westward along the coast, gathering strength until it piled up on the delta. We are talking a twenty foot surge. It’s a worst case scenario. I hope everyone’s prayers keep that storm weak.

Caleb,
I agree. If Isaac gets organized and forms an ‘eye’ in the next 24 hours, it will have several days to strengthen further before any land fall.

After devastation, during extended periods without electricity or heating when people huddle together such as post-hurricane, there are notable spikes in pregnancies, mainly “unintended”. During long rebuilding periods after natural disasters, many decide “it’s not the right time”. So they are not entirely unrelated.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H…AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT… MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY…AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO.

I am tired, however, about wanting to sacrifice women to a fetus. Yep. Science says it can be viable, earlier and earlier. Do I care? Nope? Minimize pain and suffering. Just like killing calves, for veal.

The pups and kitties we gas at the SPCA are “beyond viable,” living breathing things.

We are part of nature — just like Isaac. We need to stand in awe of that.

But we don’t need a “belief” about a “sout” unshared by the animals we gas and butcher, which is, apparently, ok’ed by God, to turn women into ovens, according to the GOP American taliban.

Some folk “believe” stoning women to death in the public square shouting Allah Akbar is fine.

Some believe women should be ovens to their fetuses. It’s ok.

I do not want my, country, The United States of America, turned into an anti-woman taliban.
If the GOP wants to go there it *is* ok. Today, however, I still have the right to walk. So do millions of other voters — who should, I think, be voting GOP, except for this issue.

And, this “silly” issue, long a part of the GOP platform, just bubbling to the surface now, will cost Romney the election. Yep. The GOP has some time to rethink the platform — rare, but ALWAYS legal — or lose. ….Lady in Red

LIR sez: “I believe in science, facts, repeatable experiments. I believe in truth. I believe in limited govt.
I do not believe that American women should be turned into birthing ovens, without rights.
imposing govt morality on women’s medical decisions. Your “beliefs” should be private, between you and *your* God. This isn’t science.
The important thing, friends: science, science, science. THAT is why you are here. *Science* is important.”

The scientific answer is that life begins at conception.
This is what we learned in middle school. Like begets like. We also learned the principles of living things versus non-living things.

Some have obfuscated this fact of science for their political motives, such as fighting against conservatives by portraying them as uneducated cavemen barbarians, and accusing conservatives of wanting to take all women and turn them into breeding machines. Or, alternately, wanting to instill a “theocracy” in the U.S.

If life does not begin at conception, then the burden for updating and revising the scientific view is upon The Lady in Red, with a revolutionary idea equivalent to Galileo declaring the earth revolves around the sun, and not vice versa:

Two questions follow that:
At what point in development does human life begin, if not at conception?

What is the thing until it is human? It is growing, has its own DNA, and so on. What is the name for this new phenomenon when it is in between conception and the point where this distinctly DNA-guided growing thing becomes homo sapiens?

[And now, either hilarity ensues, or vitriol and name-calling ensues – like discussing the lack of man-made global warming with some Al Gore-instructed college kid .]

And, Lady in Red, are we about to get a rant about “overpopulation” next, and how we educated westerners need to go to the dark corners of the world and promote birth control, lest “they” crowd our planet and ruin the good thing we have going on?

[Let’d keep to the topic, please. No more abortion discussion. ~dbs, mod.]

@geran, I assume that what strength Isaac will have probably depends on how slowly he goes over the open Gulf. The water out there is supposed to be very warm and he could pick up a lot of strength from that if he spends enough time over it.

Also, the track of this storm makes it more potentially dangerous than Katrina because it’s coming in at the right angle to push all of its storm surge straight into Lake Ponchetrain, something Katrina wasn’t quite perfect for although it was more than bad enough. That could still change though.

Last info I have found (about an hour ago) Isaac is not even an official hurricane–only wind speeds of 60 kph. The predictions are that it will intensify, but it will need a lot more “global warming”.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012/

...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST MOVES THE CENTER OF ISAAC ACROSS THE LOWER
FL KEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND WNWWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE
BANDS MOVING WNWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL. THERE HAS BEEN WEAK
ROTATION INDICATED IN SEVERAL CELLS APPROACHING THE SERN FL
COAST...AND BANDS TO THE NORTH HAVE DISPLAYED OCCASIONAL LEWP
STRUCTURES. VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS
BETWEEN ADJACENT BANDS WHICH MAY PERMIT LOCALIZED ZONES OF STRONGER
DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. 12Z AREA RAOBS AND CURRENT
VAD WIND PROFILES AT KMFL AND KBYX INDICATE 45-50 KT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL WHICH IS RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH
IN THE LOWEST 1 KM OF 35 KT/250 M2/S2 RESPECTIVELY...WHICH WILL
PROMOTE SMALL SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS
THAT DEVELOP.

I guess that without the incredible power of global warming Isaac would have been a light rain storm. Key West was hit a little. They had some gusts to 70 mph, maybe. The mainland received light rain. /sarc off

My guess is that it does no make landfall in the US as a major hurricane.

At the moment TS Isaac (it never was a hurricane) is static or dying. As of the 8pm update, even the NHC has no clue what its going to do. The rotational center is presently located approx 60 mi west of Key West and there’s not much water left in it, compared to earlier.

Isaac was considerably less than expected, from Key West to Miami. Let’s give the Herald a big round of applause for not sensationalizing Isaac and for reporting what happened. According to the Herald, Isaac was not a hurricane and even the warning was down graded to tropical storm.

As for other news outlets, their headlines give the impression that south Florida was devastated.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA…INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS…LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN…AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
COAST AND FROM TARPON SPRINGS SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
* FLORIDA KEYS…INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
(…)

“A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
COAST…”

Sebastian Inlet? That is way north of Fort Pierce and almost to Melbourne. That is about 200 miles from the light rain that fell in Miami. I guess Tropical Storm Warnings are very, very broad. (Sebastian Inlet is great for surfing. Maybe that’s what they were thinking about.)

Go to the Miami Herald and watch the girls gleefully waiting for Isaac in a northerly key.

‘“We always have people get injured or killed post-storm,” Broward Emergency Operations Director Chuck Lanza said Sunday afternoon, urging people to stay inside.

CAUTION ADVISED

He reminded pedestrians to keep clear of puddles and motorists to be extra cautious on the soaked and debris-strewn roadways. “If you can stay home and do things around the house, that’s the best idea,” he advised Sunday afternoon, once Isaac had passed with no immediate reports of extreme flooding or severe damage.’

Yep, watch out for those puddles. In Florida, you must assume that every body of water contains alligators. Y’all be careful now, Ya’ heah? /sarc off

We truly live in an age of hysteria. (Here I am referring to the other news outlets, not the Miami Herald.)

A few days ago, I read (I think on Tom Nelson’s site) something about the hurricane missing the RNC by Big Joe B. I think he said it would go to the west of it and so far, he’s looking like he was right.

Jeff D says:
August 26, 2012 at 8:40 am
“I am still clueless and confused as to why we as an ” Intelligent ” species refuses to learn from past disasters and without fail will rebuild in the very same place natural disasters tend to strike.”

New Orleans is a treasure trove of history. For that reason, it is almost unique in the US.

“I think it was Mark Twain that called it one of the four unique cities in the U.S.
The others: San Francisco, Boston, and San Antonio.”

Sounds about right to me. Leaving Bourbon Street to the young tourists, there is the Crescent City which was built on a crescent ridge along the Mississippi. That ridge does not flood and was not flooded by Katrina. It contains a treasure trove of architecture from the 1700s and some institutions, such as a convent, that have been in continuous operation. When you encounter some Cajun kid running a fish stand, you know that you are not entirely in the US any longer. It is a very rich city that rewards extended exploration.

To Lady in Red,
Isaac has not been born yet as a hurricane. It is still in the fetal tropical storm stage. When it becomes a hurricane sometime in the third trimester around Monday night, we will be able to talk about your issues. Until then Isaac is still a fetus, so now let’s keep on topic about the gulf coast and the impact this baby will have on it.

So far Isaac has never been a hurricane, only a tropical storm. Yet according to the BBC it has lashed and pounded and wreaked havoc. God knows what it would have done if had been a Hurricane. I think they have a standard print block and they just substituted the correct “Tropical Storm” for the word Hurricane.

I saw something a bit weird this morning when I first turned to the satellite views for IR AVN. The center of circulation was Southeast of the eastern Cuban coast, and there was another point of circulation to the Northwest of Cuba, which looked like it was spinning up. With the half hour animation it appears that the low pressure centers of the two lows joined, the northerly system spun up through some transfer of angular momentum, and, within a half our the center was at the northwest point and the southern point turned chaotic. Is there an archive of the satellite views at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml ? I’d like to review this.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED NORTH OF JUPITER INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA…INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS…LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN…AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST AND FROM TARPON SPRINGS SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
* FLORIDA KEYS…INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
(…)
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT…
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY…AND APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…
AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…
335 KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
38 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH HAS RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED AT OPA
LOCKA AIRPORT NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA.

Looks like Isaac is aimed at the Ozarks. As the drought there is eased the hand wringers will talk about too much rain. They will talk about how many names we have used up without mentioning how many names were wasted on marginal storms (Helene and Joyce recently).

Looks like Isaac is aimed at the Ozarks. As the drought there is eased the hand wringers will talk about too much rain. They will talk about how many names we have used up without mentioning how many names were wasted on marginal storms (Helene and Joyce recently).

The rules currently in use mean that Helen and Joyce will remain in the list and will be reused in six or seven years time. The names are ‘retired’ by the WMO loosely based on cost and lives lost.

For Atlantic hurricanes, there is a list of names for each of six years. In other words, one list is repeated every seventh year. The only time that there is a change is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for obvious reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames_history.shtml

But there is a lot of debate on whether it makes sense to name a ‘fish storm’ that only briefly makes hurricane strength and that is only observed by satellite. This is usually because various groups start ‘a book’ on how many storms hurricanes etc in each season; rather like the current ‘excitement’ about forecasting the September extent of arctic ice. The difference for those in states that are in the hurricane firing line is that insurers look for excuses to raise rates and ‘an active year’ even though made up of 90% fish storms can raise rates.

Helene had a plane make 40 knot wind measurement a few hours before hitting Mexico. A named storm with no future potential whatsoever. Joyce had no measurements, just a satellite estimate of 35 knots. Perhaps the forecasters could be forgiven since they though it would intensify further. But it died immediately. Both “storms” lasted less than 6 hours.

Just reviewed the latest from the NHC. I also went back to the graphics archives and watched the development of the projected tracks for this storm as well as the wind projections. It seems that the Issac tends not to live up to it’s billing — and it is worth noting that it has never been a hurricane, at least not yet. Perhaps it will strengthen to a Cat 1, but even officially, there is currently only a one-in-ten chance that it will reach Cat 2 of 96 mph. The people at NHC know that they are likely to incur the wrath of HQ if they fail to follow the party line about more intense and more frequent storms being caused by AGW, so they keep their estimates on the high side. And of course, the media could turn a tropic depression into the greatest threat to life-as-we-know-it in human history. I do not see where anyone is served by the exaggeration and alarmism and the folks at NHC lose credibility.

This comment from the MiamiHerald just about sums up the attitude towards the Herald as well as the effects of the storm.

“khill444444 • 17 hours ago −
↓

This massive storm is a menace. I just had a palm frond blow off one of my trees, slightly injuring a frog on my walkway. I and the frog thank for for your thoughts and prayers during this difficult time. I will be sending this to Phil Ferro at Channel 7, who obviously needs to put this on the news immediately.”

True Nanook, they will send out the “hurricane hunter” and tell them to keep flying until they find a 74 mph wind or run out of fuel whichever comes first. Or Isaac makes it to hurricane, they will have to look for a cat 2 wind. It won’t matter if it’s one dropsonde in one sector.

What a disgusting string of hateful tirades. Your repeated use of the such an offensive term, much more offensive than ‘denier’, suggests that you’re far less interested in persuading than you are in insulting.

I saw something a bit weird this morning when I first turned to the satellite views for IR AVN. The center of circulation was Southeast of the eastern Cuban coast, and there was another point of circulation to the Northwest of Cuba, which looked like it was spinning up. With the half hour animation it appears that the low pressure centers of the two lows joined, the northerly system spun up through some transfer of angular momentum, and, within a half our the center was at the northwest point and the southern point turned chaotic. Is there an archive of the satellite views at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml ? I’d like to review this.

It’s all Greek to me but the discussion over at flhurricane.com may have covered what you saw.

I saw something a bit weird this morning when I first turned to the satellite views for IR AVN. The center of circulation was Southeast of the eastern Cuban coast, and there was another point of circulation to the Northwest of Cuba, which looked like it was spinning up. With the half hour animation it appears that the low pressure centers of the two lows joined, the northerly system spun up through some transfer of angular momentum, and, within a half our the center was at the northwest point and the southern point turned chaotic. Is there an archive of the satellite views at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml ? I’d like to review this.

It’s all Greek to me but the discussion over at flhurricane.com may have covered what you saw.