Few modern Latin-American lead- ers have been as provocative as Hugo Chávez, or have harbored such grandi- ose dreams. His loyal constituency is Venezuelàs poor, who represent some eighty per cent of the country's twenty- four million people. Chávez's popularity rating is now at fifty-six per cent-less than it once was, but still impressive, es- pecially since poverty, unemployment, and violent crime in Venezuela are at record levels. In the last two and a half years, more than two hundred thou- sand members of the upper and middle classes have emigrated to the United States, Australia, and Western Europe, taking their money with them. Around eight billion dollars was removed from the country last year. Chávez blames the corruption and negligence of past gov- ernments for Venezuela's problems, and he begs for time by quoting Bolívar: "Stand firm and firmer still; have pa- tience, and more patience." Chávez acts like a man who is on the campaign trail, which, in a sense, he is. He has called, and won, eight referen- dums. These have allowed him to de- sign a new constitution and to secure an extended term in office for himselt His present mandate expires in 2007, but he can be reëlected for a six-year period. Previously, Venezuela's Presidents were limited to a single, five-year term. He also has a new Supreme Court and a unicameral National Assembly that, since he abolished the old Senate, is stacked with his allies. Chávez has given Venezuela's armed forces an unprece- dented role in his government, handing out key posts to senIor officers. Chávez's enemies say that he is be- coming a dictatorial caudillo like Juan Perón or Fidel Castro. He is Castro's closest ally in the Western Hemisphere. He irked Washington by making a friendly visit to Saddam Hussein a year ago, and by prohibiting U.S. drug- surveillance flights over Venezuelàs ter- ritory: He opposes the $1.3-billion pro- gram, consisting mainly of military aid, to combat the drug trade in neighbor- ing Colombia, both because he thinks the program will lead to a wider war, with more refugees coming into Vene- zuela, and because he doesn't think the United States should be involved. Last year, Venezuela was the United States' No.2 foreign supplier of crude oil and petroleum products. The state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, has six refineries in the United States, and it owns Citgo, which has the franchise for nearly fourteen thousand American gas stations. Chávez was instrumental in OPEC's decision to cut back production in 2000, driving up fuel prices and provid- ing twenty-one billion dollars in extra revenues for Venezuela, which is the third -largest oil producer in the organi- zation' after Saudi Arabia and Iran. Dennis Jett, who was the U.S. Am- bassador to Peru from 1996 to 1999, calls Chávez "the greatest threat to de- mocracy in Latin America, "With the pos- sible exception of the FARC"-the Revo- lutionary Armed Forces of Colombia guerrilla group. Earlier this year, U.S. diplomats in Caracas leaked word to several reporters that, under certain un- specified conditions, Washington might green-light a coup against Chávez. But that sort of rhetoric has died down. Despite all his inflammatory language, Chávez has not actually done much to alter Venezuela's economy, and he has encouraged foreign investment and made overtures to American leaders. He has visited the U.S. seven times to meet with businessmen, newspaper edi- tors, and politicians. The elections that brought him to power are generally re- garded as having been fair, there are --- no political prisoners in Venezuela, the press is not curtailed-it lampoons Chávez regularly-and opposition po- litical parties operate freely: It is diffi- cult for the Bush Administration to act against him. "The bottom line is that we don't have a policy in Venezuela," a former diplomat in Bush père's govern- ment said to me. "Hell, we don't have a policy in Latin America. The policy is not to have a policy; because we don't know how to rein Chávez in without breaking the crockery: And he sort of car- ries the crockery closet around "With him." C hávez is a mestizo Creole-just as Simón Bolívar was, despite the many portraits that depict him as a white man. Chávez's features are a dark- copper color and as thick as clay; he has protruding, sensuous lips and deep-set eyes under a heavy brow. His hair is black and kinky. He is a burly man of medium height, with a long, hatchet- shaped nose and a massive chin and ja Chavez is physically demonstrative and seems to have a nearly photographic memory, flattering people he has met only once by remembering their names and- personal details. He is also an in- veterate, and not always tactful, prank- ster. In May, when he met Vladimir Putin in Moscow, he adopted a mock karate stance before shaking Putin's Ir 1) Ifl -.=: . . . rn -.. ::..:- 'f" ;,,' J :; . -.. . - :'.: .;; i I - ' L : 1\ .J AGI=>&-1 IRq . , \ -OJ ô -===-=-.; -5' ,___ 'Üð t-.1 , "The school could certainly use more hall monitors like you, Peterson. "