OLYMPIA -- Full-time student enrollment in Washington’s basic education system is expected to pass the million mark within three years.

There are currently more than 990,000 students enrolled full-time in kindergarten through 12th grade across Washington state. The number of students in the K-12 system is expected to increase by between 2,800 and 4,500 annually for the next three years, according to the Washington Caseload Forecast Council.

The forecast council counts enrollment based on a full-time student equivalent, meaning that half-day kindergarten or other part-time students count as a fraction in the council's calculations.

The council adopted its November forecast Friday in Olympia. The document will act as a pillar for the governor’s December budget.

One of the topics in this biennium’s budget decisions will be funding for Washington’s basic education system following the McCleary court decision in which the state Supreme Court ruled that government has not been adequately funding K-12 education.

Increased state expenditures per pupil are tied to gains in long-term student success, particularly in the earlier grades, according to research presented by the Washington State Institute for Public Policy earlier this week in Olympia.

The institute looked at percent change in spending per pupil as related to success rates, said Annie Pennucci, a researcher with the WSIPP.

“There’s evidence that increased expenditures in the early grades can have positive impacts,” she said.

More students in an already underfunded system means Washington is looking at an increased need for education support.

However, the climb in enrollment is not as rapid as it has been in the past and comes after a period of decline. Enrollment in K-12 education dropped from the 2010-11 to the 2011-12 school year due to less movement of students into the state, less transfers from private to public schools and policy changes that reduced off-campus alternative learning options, according to the forecast council.

In the long run, enrollment increases will likely continue to slow as today’s infants and toddlers reach school age because Washington’s birth rate stuttered in 2009 after about a decade of rising annual rates.

Though K-12 full-time enrollment is inching toward a million, that is not the only factor coming into play with the November forecast. The council looks at a variety of information and, in the end, the Washington Legislature sees some savings when Friday’s forecast is compared to previous predictions, according to the Washington Office of Financial Management.

OFM Director Stan Marshburn said Friday that caseload adjustments for the current biennium will save about $75 million.

The forecast council provides numbers that the OFM uses to calculate dollar amounts in savings or additional costs. The trends in this forecast show overall savings, but it is not easy nailing down precise numbers, Marshburn said.

“It’s a little harder to estimate what the exact savings is because we are projecting out into the future and our benchmark has not been as concrete,” he said.

Sen. Jim Hargrove, D-Hoquiam and council chair, cited policy changes as a key piece of the savings. These include changes made in the prison system and in foster care.

Policy changes during the last couple legislative sessions have reduced the adult inmate caseload for the Department of Corrections, and that caseload is expected to remain below 2009 levels during the next three years.

Among these changes was SB-6204, which implemented the swift and certain approach for the Washington DOC. Hargrove originally sponsored the bill.

Swift and certain took effect in June. Under the new policy, low-risk offenders – such as those arrested for some drug and alcohol related crimes – are automatically placed in jail for one to three days before being released, according to the DOC. Because this sets a firm time limit on their length of stay in a county jail bed, the state expects to save costs in bed space.

Separate policy changes resulted in a drop to the state’s foster care caseload forecast. An increased focus on not sending children to out-of-home care along with speeding up the adoption process for kids who are in the system have resulted in a steadily decreasing caseload since 2007. At the beginning of 2007, the caseload for Washington licensed foster care reached nearly 8,000 children. By 2015, that number is expected to drop to about 5,700.

“To a certain extent, we have resized government a bit with our policy changes,” Hargrove said Friday.

The forecast council will meet again in March. The March forecast will allow for updates or additions in the state’s supplemental budget.