MR. RUSSERT:Insights and analysis from
Ron Brownstein
of the
National Journal
and author of "The
Second Civil War
: How
Extreme Partisanship
has
Paralyzed Washington
and
Polarized America
";
E.J. Dionne
, columnist,
Washington Post
;
Gwen Ifill
of
PBS
' "
Washington Week
" and "
The NewsHour
";
Chuck Todd
,
NBC News
political director;
Byron York
,
White House correspondent
of the
National Review
.

And we continue our celebration of 60 years of
MEET THE PRESS
. This morning, a remarkable look back at the men and women who shaped our history.

But first, what a week for politics. Welcome, all. We'll try to put it all into context and perspective. Let's go right to it. This is the latest poll from the
Democrats
in
Iowa
. Look at this:
Hillary Clinton
, 27;
Barack Obama
, 25;
John Edwards
, 21;
Bill Richardson
, 10.

Chuck Todd
, what does it mean?

MR. CHUCK TODD:Well, we have a very tight race, obviously, in
Iowa
. And I think we're seeing -- you're starting to see particularly the
Clintoncampaign
get very nervous about what's going on in
Iowa
. They're now adding -- they're spending more money there, they're adding more operatives, they've hired more staff. You're starting to see the
national
folks parachute in. I think they're, they're very concerned.

Obama
, the one place where everything has worked well for him has been in
Iowa
. They have a very good staff, a very experienced staff, and it's probably the one place where maybe they trump the
Clintoncampaign
when it comes to being ready for the, for the big,
big show
.

MR. RUSSERT:Ron Brownstein
, why is there such a disparity between the
national
polls and
Iowa
?

MR. RON BROWNSTEIN:Well, because the candidates are better known there. Voters have more exposure to them. They're getting more independent information than they are in the
national
polls and the
states
that are later in the calendar. And
Iowa
traditionally has been a place that has given an opportunity to candidates who aren't necessarily at the top of the
national
polls.

You know, the question -- to me, the disparity that's fascinating is between the Democratic and Republican races in
Iowa
. You have the
Democrats
engaged in this all-out death match with enormous staffs, enormous investments of time, and enormous spending on advertising. On the Republican race, really, you've had
Mitt Romney
almost alone in buying
television advertising
, candidates not really spending nearly as much time as the
Democrats
. And now
Mike Huckabee
moving to take advantage of that vacuum and perhaps try to catapult himself into the race. It's really extraordinary to see the difference in the investment of time and resources between the two parties as well.

MR. RUSSERT:Gwen Ifill
, as a reporter what are you looking for over these next
46 days
to try to make
sense
of this race?

MS. GWEN IFILL:Well, we're looking for all the
little bits
, because right now everything is moving inch by inch. And it all
counts
, obviously, because of the ferocity of the
campaign
. You can see how much it
counts
. So if
John McCain
has decided he's not going to compete anymore in, in
Iowa
, and that he's going to take all of his resources to
New Hampshire
, that
counts
a lot. It
counts
a lot if, if
Mike
,
Mike Huckabee
is enough of a threat to
Romney
that the two of them actually start sparring with each other. Who thought at this stage that
Mike Huckabee
would become a target? It
counts
a lot because you can start to see real unhappiness, almost nastiness, real personal dislike among some of these top-tier candidates to the degree that they're fighting over just edges. They're fighting just for tens of votes.

MR. RUSSERT:Let's take a look at that. This was a
debate
Thursday, and this is how
Senator Obama
responded early on. Let's listen.

SEN. OBAMA:Senator Clinton
, I think, is a capable politician, and I think that she has run a terrific
campaign
. But what the
American people
are looking for right now is straight answers to tough questions, and that is not what we've seen out of
Senator Clinton
on a host of issues. On the issue of driver's licenses or
illegal immigrants
. We saw in the last
debate
that it took not just that
debate
but two more weeks before we could get a clear answer in terms of where her position was.

MR. RUSSERT:E.J. Dionne
, she's a capable politician, phrasing with very fain praise, I would say. Also straight answers to tough questions.
Obama
's trying to frame the election that he is the candidate of candor as opposed to
Senator Clinton
.

MR. DIONNE:You know what strikes me is, I think the
Clinton
and
Obama
campaigns actually agree on how voters are seeing this choice, and I think they agree that there are a lot of voters out there who may have a preference now and could easily
change
it. I think the way people are looking at
Obama
is as somebody who could break with the past. We wouldn't relive the '90s, as he likes to say, meaning we wouldn't relive all the divisiveness of the
Clinton
years nor the
Bush
years. But they're worried about whether he can -- he's experienced enough to be president. With
Clinton
, yes, you have a very capable politician, which was a mixed blessing from
Obama
, but you also have somebody who could take over the government tomorrow morning. She loves to use "ready from day one" as one of her standard lines. And I think there are a lot of
Democrats
who are confused about whether they want the big
change
with
Obama
or the tough experience candidate with
Clinton
. And then you've got
John Edwards
there who speaks to a kind of heart of the
Democratic Party
, particularly sort of the labor wing of the
Democratic Party
. He's kind of fought his way back in with the attacks on Mrs.
Clinton
. We'll see if that can sustain itself.

MR. RUSSERT:It is interesting that
Senator Obama
chose the driver's licenses for immigrants as the way of saying
Senator Clinton
had a
hard time
with that question. Here's what happened to
Senator Obama
at the
CNNdebate
. Let's watch.

SEN. OBAMA:I am not proposing that that's what we do. What I'm saying is that we can't be.... No, no, no. Look, I have already said I, I support the notion that we have to deal with
public safety
and that driver's licenses at the
state
level can make that happen.

MR. WOLF BLITZER:Senator Obama
, yes or no?

SEN. OBAMA:Yes. But...

MR. BLITZER:OK.

SEN. OBAMA:...I, I am going to be fighting for comprehensive
immigration reform
. And we shouldn't pose the question that somehow we can't achieve that. I believe that the
American people
desperately want it. That's what I'm going to be fighting for as president.

MR. BLITZER:Senator
Clinton
:

CLINTON:No.

MR. RUSSERT:Now, no as opposed to
Obama
's difficulty in answering that question. Compare that to
Senator Clinton
's answer two weeks ago. Let's go back to that
debate
.

SEN. CLINTON:What Governor
Spitzer
is trying to do is fill the vacuum left by the failure of this administration to bring about comprehensive
immigration reform
. We know in
New York
we have several million at any one time who are in
New York
illegally. They are undocumented workers. They are driving on our roads. The possibility of them having an accident that harms themselves or others is just a matter of the odds. It's probability. So what Governor
Spitzer
is trying to do is to fill the vacuum.

I just want to add I did not say that it should be done, but I certainly recognize why Governor
Spitzer
is trying to do it.

SEN. CHRIS DODD:Now wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute.

SEN. CLINTON:And we have failed. We have failed.

SEN. DODD:No, no, no, you said, you said yes.

SEN. CLINTON:No.

SEN. DODD:You thought it made
sense
to do it.

SEN. CLINTON:No, I didn't,
Chris
. But the point is what are we going to do with all these
illegal immigrants
who are driving on the roads?

SEN. DODD:Well, that's a, that's a legitimate issue.

RUSSERT:Do you support his plan?

SEN. CLINTON:You know,
Tim
, this is where everybody plays gotcha. It makes a lot of
sense
. What is the governor supposed to do? He is dealing with a serious problem. We have failed, and
George Bush
has failed. Do I think this is the best thing for any governor to do? No. But do I understand the
sense
of, of real desperation, trying to get a handle on this? Remember, in
New York
, we want to know who's in
New York
. We want people to come out of the shadows. He's making an honest effort to do it. We should have passed
immigration reform
.

RUSSERT:Byron York
, what do we learn about
Senator Obama
and
Senator Clinton
about those two performances.

MR. BYRON YORK:Obama
's mistake was absolutely mystifying, and Democratic strategists said to me it's almost as if he'd read her answer from the previous
debate
and thought it was the right thing to say, and he stumbled on it again. She, however, learned finally to say no, although she wasn't asked "Why did you changed your mind and when did you
change your mind
?"
Obama
also made another strange lapse when he got on kind of a high horse about the vote to declare the
Iran
Revolutionary Guard as a
terrorist organization
, said that was a bad idea. And

the moderator said, "Well, you weren't actually there for that vote, were you?" And he said, "Well, no, I wasn't. I was running for president." And that was a mistake. I mean, just mystifying mistakes that he made in this
debate
.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:You know, moving away from their tactical encounter for one second, the, the vote -- the broader point, which I think they both got to, The lesson of
New York
is that it is impossible to deal with this issue of driver's license for
illegal immigrants
, or for that matter almost any issue relating to
immigration
on a piecemeal basis. The only way that you're going to find some sort of consensus about what to do is through a comprehensive solution. I mean, there's -- the, the politics of this become untenable when you have to parcel it apart and try to deal with them one by one.

But I would say, also, in terms of the tactical maneuvering, the most dangerous thing for any politician is to play into a pre-existing storyline. When
Dan Quayle
misspelled potato, I mean, if
Bill Clinton
had misspelled potato, no -- everybody would've said he was tired.
Dan Quayle
, it was like, "He doesn't know how to spell potato." For
Hillary Clinton
, clearly the answer that you just played, played into what is her biggest vulnerability in this race, the
sense
that she may be too political, too evasive, not always telling, you know, the, the -- fudging answers and so forth. So, in that
sense
, her response was very much a clear attempt to shore up that...

MS. IFILL:And for
Barack
...

MR. BROWNSTEIN:...in the second
debate
, and was going to shore up that vulnerability.

MS. IFILL:And for
Barack Obama
,
Ron
, the, the, the pre-existing storyline is that he's not experienced enough. Whenever he does anything that seems to take a shot at
Hillary Clinton
, they come back by saying, "Look how inexperienced he is. If he were a more experienced candidate, he wouldn't be making this mistake, he wouldn't be making this statement." And the problem with this, of
course
, is that nuance is lost. There is a lot of nuance in the
immigration debate
. There are a lot of nuances in a lot of these issues. This is a very issue-rich
debate
, but that gets lost in kind of the back and forth.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:Well...

MR. E.J. DIONNE:You know, that's right, but the -- that's absolutely right. The issue is, why did they both flub the
immigration
issue? And I think the answer is that both of them want to say something that's very difficult to say in this climate, because they are torn politically between two constituencies.
Latino
voters are going to provide
Democrats
with a lot of votes in the next election. They don't want to say something that offends them. They're also worried that some swing, particularly white, voters really are against this driver's license thing. So they're doing this political balancing act.

And then, substantively, as
Gwen
says, makes a lot of
sense
to say, "Well, better to have people on the road having licenses than not," but this is become a kind of passionate ideological issue instead of a practical, how-do-you-solve-this-problem issue. So even though
Byron
's absolutely right,
Obama
should've been better prepared. The fact they both flubbed it reflects a fundamental problem
Democrats
are going to have in dealing with
immigration
.

MR. RUSSERT:John Edwards
, who has been very stern in his criticism of
Hillary Clinton
, continued that at the beginning of the
CNNdebate
. Here's Senator
Edwards
.

FMR. SEN. JOHN EDWARDS:Senator Clinton
says she will end the war. She also says she will continue to keep combat troops in
Iraq
and continue
combat missions
in
Iraq
. She says she will turn up the heat on
George Bush
and the
Republicans
. But when the crucial vote came on stopping
Bush
,
Cheney
and the neocons on
Iran
, she voted with
Bush
and
Cheney
.

And the most important issue is she says she will bring
change
to
Washington
while she continues to defend a system that does not work, that is broken, that is rigged and is corrupt, corrupted against the interest of most
Americans
.

MR. BLITZER:All right.

MR. RUSSERT:This was
Senator Clinton
's response. Let's watch.

SEN. CLINTON:Well, you know, I, I, I respect all of my colleagues on this stage, and, you know, we're
Democrats
and we're trying to nominate the very best person we can to win, and I don't mind taking hits on my record, on issues, but when somebody starts throwing mud, at least we can hope that it's both accurate and not right out of the Republican playbook.

MR. TODD:Well, it's interesting, you know,
Edwards
, he seemed to back off, by the way, as that
debate
went on. I mean, partially, I think he got intimidated by the audience.

MR. RUSSERT:The audience played a big role in this
debate
.

MR. TODD:They, they, they did, and it's, you know, both
Obama
's folks and
Edwards
folks were very, you know, upset about the audience, this or that. The
Clinton
folks not acknowledging anything -- that they had anything to do with it. At the same time, you know, were saying, "Hey, if you can't take it, you know, you could've stood up there, you could've fought back at the moderator, you could've done these things." And, you know, their comment was, "If you're whining about the format, it means you lost the
debate
." And frankly, I mean, I think the
Obama
folks know they had a bad -- they didn't have a good night. The
Edwards
folks had a really bad night. And this is just one night, but if he starts fading too quickly, it -- the, the odd thing here is that's actually not good for
Clinton
.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:Mm-hmm.

MR. TODD:Because the quicker this is a two-person race, the, the better for
Obama
and the more stark -- I mean, because when you go to this whole second choice thing -- and I tell you, polling
Iowa
is a mess, trying to understand it. But when you go to the second choice, when you don't get that threshold and, you know, all this stuff,
Obama
does, right now, a lot better than she does because of this
change
argument, because he is more
change
than she is.

MR. RUSSERT:Ron Brownstein
, yesterday
Robert Novak
had a column with this headline:"
Hill Shills Hint
at '
Bam Slam
," suggesting that there had been information -- scandalous information about
Obama
that agents for
Hillary Clinton
had been passing around, but not using against the
campaign
. The
Clintoncampaign
said absolutely untrue. But it played out all day long.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:Oh, totally. Well, look, we are now in the -- what I call the speak now or forever hold your peace moment for the other Democratic candidates.
Hillary Clinton
has gotten up to 50 percent in the
national
polls, she was way
ahead
in
New Hampshire
, and, beginning in that
debate
in
Philadelphia
a few weeks ago, they have decided they have to make their case. They're going to make it with every opportunity they have. I think I'm a little surprised that the
Obamacampaign
picked up so much on an unsourced
Bob Novak
column.
Bob
is a great reporter; he's been here for a long time. Traditionally source is stronger in the Republican than the
Democratic Party
. And I think it's just a sign of how eager both sides are. I mean, not a leaf will fall in the forest between now and, now and
Iowa
and
New Hampshire
without
Obama
and
Edwards
looking for a way to make this into a contrast with
Hillary Clinton
, because that is ultimately what you have to do against a front-runner. And look, we are seeing --
Richard Ben Cramer
wrote that
classic book
, "
What It Takes
." The primaries, as crazy as they are, ultimately show us what is in the spine of these candidates. And I think this is the time of testing for
Clinton
that she really hasn't had before.

MR. YORK:Novak
did not even write that an agent for
Clinton
had told him that. He simply said it was going around in Democratic circles.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:Right.

MS. IFILL:Yeah, it was...

MR. BROWNSTEIN:More of a
cocktail party
...

MS. IFILL:...you know, the -- one of the more curious pieces we've seen surface. But what made it curious, of
course
, was the ferocity of the response. I think I spent a big part of my turkey shopping day yesterday fielding
phone calls
from the campaigns about this. The
Obama
people say, "Listen, we're just not going to take it, and it's time for us to say, yes, we're not going to take it. There's been whispering campaigns out there about us before, about madrassas, etc., and we're not going to let it pass this time." Of
course
, it's because the stakes are higher. The
Clinton
people say, A, they didn't do it. They use words like "umbrage," "How dare they suggest that
Hillary
would do a thing." And then they go on to say, and get this, "They started it." So there's this kindergarten stuff going back and forth. But it -- but
Ron
is right, what's underneath it is this incredible, bitter, high-stakes battle which I think is just beginning to engage. Forty-five days left? Fasten your seat belts.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:Forty-five day controversies.

MS. IFILL:That's right.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT:At the
debate
, an issue emerged which I thought was interesting -- trade.
Senator Clinton
was asked about the
North American Free Trade Agreement
, which
President Clinton
considers one of the most important achievements of his administration, and this is what she said:

MR. BLITZER:Was
NAFTA
a mistake?

SEN. CLINTON:NAFTA
was a mistake to the extent that it did not deliver on what we had hoped it would.

MR. RUSSERT:That's in stark contrast to what
Senator Clinton
had said. Here she is in '04:"I think, on balance,
NAFTA
has been good for
New York
and
America
."
Ron Brownstein
, you've written in your book, "The
Second Civil War
," about
Bill Clinton
. You interviewed him and talked to him.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT:David Broder
last week talked about what will the roll of
Bill Clinton
be in a
Clinton administration
, two presidents in one house, and how does that work out? And you have an issue like trade here, which there appears to be a disagreement. You had the president jumping in, defending his wife over the last couple weeks, sometimes very vociferously. Tell us about your conversation.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:OK, couple of things. First of all, I think, if you look at
Hillary Clinton
and where she has positioned herself on, on, on a broad array of issues, on domestic issues she has been less willing to challenge conventional wisdom within the
party
than her husband. She has been pulled back by, I think, by the greater partisan tide, whether it's education, trade, entitlements. She is less willing, I think, to sort of push against the
party
consensus, whereas on
foreign policy
she has been willing to take some risks to try to maintain a centrist position for the
general election
.

In the book, I had a very interesting conversation with
Bill Clinton
in which he talked about what he did wrong as well as what he did right about trying to reach out beyond the partisan divides that he inherited in 19 -- when he arrived in
1993
. And he offered some very specific advice to the next president about how to try to assemble a broader coalition and really try to reach out to voters who don't necessarily agree with you. Now this, of
course
, is a point of dispute in the Democratic race between
Obama
and
Clinton
, arguing about who could unite the country better.

And what was fascinating about the interview with
Clinton
was his insistence on finding issues where you can work with the other side. Now, that's something that
Hillary Clinton
-- people who disagree with you on nine out of 10 issues, find the 10th one, then you can build a habit of cooperation.
Clinton
has been able to do that in the
Senate
, but on the presidential
campaign
trail -- and I think that this
Obama
thing shows that -- she -- the other side of her has also come out, a very, very tough partisan who responds with a punch when she gets a punch. And I wonder -- the question, I think, for her is which one of these instincts would predominate if she becomes president? Intellectually, I think she agrees with him on the importance of building broad coalitions, but, in her gut, she is a little more of a -- kind of a street fighter in, in her initial response than former
President Clinton
.

MR. YORK:But it's, but it's also how much of a role he will actually have and will he have some sort of power role. And this is something that
Democrats
actually like this idea. I mean,
Republicans
are terrified by it, but
Gallup
recently asked, "Would you like to see
Bill Clinton
play a policy role in a
Hillary Clinton White House
?" And
Democrats
said yes, 75/23;
Republicans
said no, 75/22. The same...

MR. BROWNSTEIN:Byron
,
Byron
, they've been through that experience once, and it really didn't work out that well the other way.

MS. IFILL:And when some...

MR. BROWNSTEIN:And I can't imagine they'd want to go too far in that direction again in reverse.

MS. IFILL:But was
Senator Clinton
part of the poll?

MR. YORK:Yeah.

MS. IFILL:I mean, does she get to, does she get to vote?

MR. TODD:No, you have to ask, I think the way you have to ask it -- look,
Bill Clinton
is a asset in the Democratic primary. OK? That is
crystal clear
, that is why he is going to spend almost as much time in
Iowa
as she is. But in the general, if she's the nominee, they're going to have to say exactly what he's going to do, an exact job description because
Joe Biden
, I think, is the one who says, he goes, "Why would you want to be vice president? He's there." I mean, you know, there is a -- she is married to the vice president or the next -- or the chief of staff, or the secretary of
state
or the
secretary of treasury
.

MR. DIONNE:Did you know -- first of all, I'm glad you mentioned
Joe Biden
. It's probably one mention. He's had a bunch of good debates. But what I wanted to do is talk about the trade issue. People forget
Bill Clinton
finessed the trade issue, too, all the way through the '92 election. If
Bill Clinton
were running now, I think he'd do exactly what
Hillary Clinton
is doing. He didn't really take a firm stand on that until the end of the
campaign
.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:Mm. Mm. Mm.

MR. DIONNE:Trade
is one of those issues that really divides the
Democratic Party
between the old blue-collar, labor-oriented voters who are really angry about the loss of jobs and income, and the upscale Democratic voters who take
free trade
as a matter of principle. This is a hard issue inside the
party
.

MR. RUSSERT:Let's go to the
Republicans
. Here's the latest poll in
Iowa
:
Mitt Romney
, the former governor of
Massachusetts
, 27;
Mike Huckabee
, former governor of
Arkansas
, 18; Mayor
Rudy Giuliani
of
New York
, 16;
Fred Thompson
, 10. The scrutiny of
Huckabee
now intensifies as he moves up in the polls. Thearkansasjournal.com,
Club for Growth
, has been circulating a tape of Mayor
Huckabee
talking to the -- his
state legislature
back in
2003
about taxes. Let's watch.

FMR. GOV. HUCKABEE:Again, let me
state
what I've said privately as well as publicly, but I want to get it on the record again: There's a lot of support for a tax at the wholesale level for tobacco, and that's fine with me.

Others have suggested a surcharge on the
income tax
. That's acceptable. I'm fine with that. Others have suggested perhaps a
sales tax
. That's fine. Yet others have suggested a hybrid that would collect some monies from any one or a combination of those various ideas, and if that's the plan that the
House
and
Senate
agree upon, then you will have nothing but my profound thanks.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:Ooh. Ooh.

MR. RUSSERT:Max Brantley
, who's covered the governor for the
Arkansas Times
, has been a critic of the governor, had a story on salon.com, the headline, "The
Dark Side
of
Mike Huckabee
: The
national
media seems to have a crush on our ex-governor, but here in
Arkansas
, we know better." And he goes on to itemize some of the improprieties he thinks that Governor
Huckabee
of
Arkansas
engaged in.

Byron
, what role will this tape, these kinds of articles, have on the
Huckabee
candidacy?

MR. YORK:When I interviewed him about this around the time of the
Iowastraw poll
, which is what got him going, a lot of these things had not been talked about yet. And he, you know, he makes his case, but I think one thing that you should point out is certainly the
Club for Growth
has been going after him on the issue of taxes, but not all Republican tax activists feel that way. I talked to
Grover Norquist
, who's head of American
tax reform
, and he said, "Well, he signed my pledge.
Ronald Reagan
had raised taxes when he was governor. And as long as he abides by my pledge, it's OK." So not all
Republicans
are attacking him on this tax issue.

MR. RUSSERT:Mm.

MS. IFILL:Is anybody else having a flashback, kind of a little acid flashback to
1991
? That same headline could've been written, "The
Dark Side
of
Bill Clinton
:
America
has a crush on our ex-governor, but we know better." We had a lot of that. What is it about
Arkansas
?

MR. RUSSERT:And
Mike Huckabee
is from
Hope
,
Arkansas
.

MR. TODD:Yeah.

MS. IFILL:Hope,
Arkansas
.

MR. DIONNE:Yes, yes.

MR. RUSSERT:The same town as
Bill Clinton
.
Mitt Romney
has now jumped on
Mike Huckabee
's position on
immigration
.
Huckabee
had a program in the
state
where scholarships were given to illegal, the children of
illegal immigrants
."
Romney
, seeking to protect his narrowing lead in
Iowa
, assailed" "
Huckabee
and
Rudy Giuliani
over supporting tuition breaks and broader sanctuary for
illegal immigrants
" on "their children. `Giving a better deal to the children of
illegal aliens
than we give to
U.S.
citizens from surrounding
states
is simply not fair and not right.'"

Huckabee
responded:"
Mitt Romney
would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn, since he had illegals there." A story about Guatemalans working on
Mitt Romney
's lawn service.

"
Rudy Giuliani
returned criticism from" "
Romney
by charging" "the former
Massachusetts governor
`probably has the worst record on
illegal immigration
.'
Giuliani
asserted that the number of
illegal immigrants
`expanded dramatically' while
Romney
was governor."

Chuck
, all these candidates trying to position themselves on
immigration
, but the fact is
Romney
and
Giuliani
, as governor and mayor, did have so-called sanctuary cities in their
state
, and had much more "progressive" records on
immigration
than they're now letting on to.

MR. TODD:Well, I think this is -- they were -- they're prisoners of being on the coast, you know.
Immigration
really is a geographic divide in this country, not a ideological divide. I mean, it is, you know, if you -- if you're on the coast you're a little more open to this idea that, you know, sometimes you can't just legislate, you can't just deport people, what are you going to do? And, and
Romney
being a guy from
Massachusetts
,
Giuliani
being a guy from
New York
, that's it. But it's interesting, you know,
Fred Thompson
's first basically major issue ad is on
immigration
. He hasn't really had to vote on it. He got to be an observer over these last three or four years. So it allows him to be the tougher-on-
immigration
guy. He comes across more, more authentic about it because he is -- got that
Southern accent
down, and I think that's playing well in
Iowa
. He's running it on
Fox News
nationally, which is a way to appeal to
national Republican
primary voters. So it is, it is a huge divide in the
party
, and yet because the front-runners all have a flawed, flawed stance on it, it's probably
Thompson
's lone opening. You know, we hadn't really mentioned him here, but it is his lone opening in this race.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:Well, you know, I mean, we, we -- you've seen the reverse on -- in, in some Democratic primaries on issues like guns, where the candidates, in competition with each other, get pulled away from the center to the left. Certainly there is an
arms race
among
Republicans
to be the toughest on
immigration
. And even someone like
Rudy Giuliani
, talking about "sanctuary cities," which in his case amounts to a policy in
New York City
that said if you bring a child into

an
emergency room
, we're not going to ask you your
legal status
. You know, you kind of wonder how he hasn't pushed back and said, "Well, would you rather that child go into the school with a fever that hasn't been diagnosed and sit next to your son or daughter in second grade?" The
party
is taking, I think, a very calculated risk here. Obviously, there's a lot of -- there was a lot of backlash in '07 against comprehensive
immigration reform
. There is still majority support, in polling, for a comprehensive approach that would, that would include a combination of tougher enforcement and a pathway to legalization. And there is also the issue of what will happen with
Hispanic
voters. The Republican vote declined from 40 percent in
2004
to 30 percent in
2006
. At 30 percent there are a number of
states
they would consider safe that would be at risk in a
general election
. So the
party
is taking a very calculated gamble as they all tumble over each other to respond to what is very clearly a real sentiment for
Republicans
.

MS. IFILL:And for every moment that you're not talking -- that you're talking about
immigration
, you're not talking about
Iran
, you're not talking about
Pakistan
, you're not talking about
Iraq
.

MR. TODD:Is that a bad thing?

MS. IFILL:And that is -- that's not a bad thing to the
Republican Party
, which is why -- which is part of what's going on.

MR. YORK:Do you -- do you know what's amazing? In
town meeting
with, with
John McCain
in
Iowa
, and, of
course
, somebody always brings up
immigration
. And he almost jumped down the guy's throat. He said, "I got the message. I got the message." And the message is we have to secure the borders first. So even the man who was really associated with comprehensive
immigration reform
has backed off.

MR. DIONNE:You know, when you hear
Giuliani
and
Romney
, in particular, on some of these issues,
immigration
notably, the words that come to mind are flip, flop, flip, flop. And you're seeing this on a lot of issues. Very interesting difference between governors and presidential candidates. In, in both these debates, you've seen governors like
Huckabee
and
Bill Richardson
take the practical approach.
Richardson
said, "Yeah, I gave driver's licenses. It made
sense
."
Huckabee
says, "Isn't it better to educate these kids so that they can move on?" What you have with
Giuliani
and
Romney
is they're trying to move away from the positions they took when they actually had to run a city or a
state
, and they're trying to be ideological. And I think
YouTube
is their biggest enemy right now, because everybody's going to be able to see these changes in position over and over again if they want to.

MR. RUSSERT:Mayor
Giulianiahead
in the
national
polls.
Mitt Romney
, as we showed you,
ahead
in
Iowa
,
ahead
in
New Hampshire
.
Giuliani
's
ahead
in
national
polls. A couple interesting developments over the last few weeks for
Rudy Giuliani
. Here's how his home city
Daily News
in
New York
played the story:"
Lies Cons
on
Rudy
's Watch.
Bernard Kerik
lied, schemed and sold out the city -- all under the nose of his mentor and pal,
presidential candidateRudy Giuliani
.

"That is the stark portrait painted in the 16-count indictment unsealed in
White Plains Federal Court
almost exactly one year before
Election Day2008
."

And then the mayor responded this way:"
Bernie Kerik
worked for me while I was mayor of
New York City
. There were mistakes made with
Bernie Kerik
. But what's the ultimate result for

the people of
New York City
? The ultimate result was a 74 percent reduction in shootings, and a 60 percent reduction in crime. Sure, there were issues, but if I have the same degree of success and failure as president of the
United States
, this country will be in great shape." Does that settle it,
Byron
?

MR. YORK:It, it does not settle it. Although, I mean, he actually has a point. I mean, he, he says, "look, I appointed thousands and thousands of people." And his
campaign
aides said to me, you know, "If you've got someone you've appointed and he's doing a bad job and he's not showing up, he's -- then you worry about him." They felt that
Bernie Kerik
did a great job. But it's, it's not going to go away.

MS. IFILL:Do they really think that's going to work?

MR. YORK:Well, it's, it's, it's one guy. I think obviously where he went too far was, was pushing him for
homeland security
.

MS. IFILL:More than one guy.

MR. DIONNE:He was one of the closest aides he had. I mean, one of the funny things the
Daily News
reported is they named the prison after
Bernie Kerik
. Of
course
, now he's recently been indicated they've taken his name off the prison.

MR. RUSSERT:I think that you have to -- I agree that people appoint a lot of people. When it's a guy who was this
close to you
, you have to ask a lot of questions, which is why
Time magazine
this week has an enormous story on this. I think this is the first time something out of Mayor
Giuliani
's record has really gotten traction in the
national
discussion.

MR. DIONNE:Yeah. And the fact, I think, it is a reminder that if he is the nominee, we -- time will begin again, the morning after. We will begin to explore the
New York
record and
debate
it and discuss it in a way that we haven't so far.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:Can I make one other point about
Giuliani
? Fascinating to me that -- the contrast between the two races. If you look at
Gallup
polling in mid-April,
Rudy Giuliani
was at 38 and
Hillary Clinton
was at 37 nationally. Today she is at 48 nationally; he is at 28. The Democratic race has consolidated around a single candidate and a single question, really. Do you want
Hillary Clinton
as the nominee, I think, is the driving question. The Republican race continues to fragment. I mean, we really -- it is extraordinary to be this late into the season and not have a single Republican candidate at 30 percent, not have a clear indication of whether the winner of
Iowa
will be able to -- whether
Romney
or certainly if it's
Huckabee
somehow -- will be able to translate that into
states
down the road. It really is a very fluid and almost unprecedentedly open situation on the Republican side.

But you could argue that
Republicans
are also asking that same question -- "Do you want
Hillary Clinton
to be president?" -- and using it to their advantage.

MS. IFILL:Well, it's interesting, you know, I think the Republican race, you know, you're seeing now
Giuliani
's made the decision to spend more resources now in
Iowa
, because
Iowa
's, oddly,
wide open
as we've noted, you know...

MR. TODD:Yeah.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:...we've noted because there's -- I think it's turned into two races: the race for first between
Romney
and
Huckabee
and then the race for third. Because the candidate that finishes fourth, which will be possibly
Giuliani
, possibly
Fred Thompson
,
John McCain
's now apparently withdrawing, which I think's actually going to be a
big mistake
for him in the long run. But you have that, too, so the candidate that finishes third, you know,
Giuliani
could pull a
Michael Dukakis
here. If you remember, when
Dukakis
finished third in the
Iowa caucuses
, it was a victory."Hey, look, the
Northeasterner
came in here and, and was the top non-
Midwesterner
in the, in the field." So
Giuliani
can say "I came in late and used" -- and you could see how he could benefit, particularly if
Huckabee
won
New Hampshire
-- excuse me -- won
Iowa
and then
Giuliani
could use it to leapfrog...

MR. TODD:Just one very quick qualification. The history of
Iowa
influencing what comes next is much less consistent than the history of
New Hampshire
. So that it's just something to keep in mind.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:Five days, though.

MR. TODD:It, it, it can...

MR. BROWNSTEIN:Five days.

MR. TODD:It can -- it can affect it, but is not --
New Hampshire
is a
big deal
always.
Iowa
, it goes back and forth.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:But how much of this race has already changed? Think of what
Chuck
just said. It's a race between
Romney
and
Huckabee
.
Huckabee
's name wouldn't have been mentioned on a panel like this two months ago. That's remarkable.

MR. DIONNE:Right.

MR. TODD:But if
Huckabee
still comes in fifth in
New Hampshire
five days later, did the tree, did the tree really fall in the forest, or, you know, did we...

MR. BROWNSTEIN:But how it affects first and second, though...

MR. TODD:I mean, we'll see. We'll see.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:...and we know that it could -- because there's no way
Romney
could lose
Iowa
and win
New Hampshire
. I say no way, I mean, I'm sure anything's possible. But that is what, what makes this Republican race so nuts.

MR. TODD:Byron
, what's your
sense
of the Republican race right now?

MR. RUSSERT:Well, in, in
Iowa
,
Mitt Romney
has aired commercials 5,000 times, and
Rudy Giuliani
has aired commercials zero times. My
sense
is that it's, it's still quite fluid. In the latest
University of Iowa
poll, 70 percent of the people who said they were for
Mitt Romney
said they might
change
their mind and support somebody else. Sixty percent of the people who supported
Giuliani
did, 50 percent of
Thompson
, 53 percent of
Huckabee
. Everybody says they might
change
their mind. So my
sense
is right now is the polls even in
Iowa
just don't matter.

MR. YORK:But if
Romney
did win
Iowa
and did win
New Hampshire
...

MR. RUSSERT:Mm.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:...then what happens?

MR. RUSSERT:That's, that's very, very strong momentum. You know, you talk to
Giuliani
and he has a strategy in which he kind of sort of
counts
backwards from
February 5th
and the
Florida
primary, the big, big primaries, and now is moving into
Iowa
to try to do better than expected. But if, if a single candidate wins
Iowa
and then
New Hampshire
--
Romney
has done very strongly in, in
South Carolina
in the last couple of weeks -- that momentum is going to be very hard to stop.

MR. YORK:Gerald Ford
, the last Republican I believe to win, as a sitting president, to win both
Iowa
and
New Hampshire
.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:And the calendar really -- and you know, it's weird. The Democratic calendar's actually a little spread out in January, where there's a gap, a, I think, major gap, that'll happen between
New Hampshire
and
South Carolina
with a big fight. Not on the Republican side because of
Michigan
and because it's so -- boy, that momentum's going to be stopped. I think the
Giuliani
people know it, which is why you're seeing them now coming to
Iowa
, and you're seeing them...

MR. TODD:It's hard to wait.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:And they know it, and they have to -- they don't have to win either
state
, but they need to come really close.

MR. TODD:Oh...

MR. DIONNE:And it's hard to wait until the end of January to begin winning races. The question, will you still be seen as viable that far into the process if you have not been able to break through and actually win something earlier. I think that's a very high-risk strategy, and, as you say, the
Giuliani
people...

MR. BROWNSTEIN:He's also...

MR. DIONNE:...have shown signs of reconsidering it.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:Giuliani
has also been playing harder in
New Hampshire
, and that's a pretty good
state
for him potentially because a lot of libertarian kind of
Republicans
won't mind his pro- choice position so much, and, obviously,
McCain
is playing for everything up there, and there are signs of a mini
McCain
surge. And I think there's some certainty in the Republican race, you know, reflects the fact a lot of
Republicans
keep looking and say, "Who looks like a president in this lot? That is what we're choosing." I think that's allowed
McCain
to have a new life in the -- in this place.

MR. DIONNE:And the volatility. If
Hillary Clinton
wins
Iowa
, people assume that, well, that's the race, because
Obama
and
Edwards
will have a
hard time
. If
Obama
won
Iowa
, then what happens in
New Hampshire
? Those independents can vote in either primary.

MR. RUSSERT:Exactly right.

MR. TODD:Will they go to the Democratic primary excited about
Obama
, or will they stay with the Republican and be excited by
John McCain
or
Ron Paul
or
Rudy Giuliani
.

MR. RUSSERT:What I feel...

MR. DIONNE:It sounds like a cliche, but the truth is that this all comes down in both parties to who wins this fight over
change
, and that's what
Hillary Clinton
and
Barack Obama
are fighting about, and
John Edwards
as well. And that's what's happening on, on the other side, as well. I mean, when, when, when Mayor
Giuliani
comes out and says "I changed
New York
," that
counts
for something.
Republicans
are as unhappy with the way things are as they were before. That's why flip-flopping is such a dangerous charge in a race like this, because people want somebody who believes something and is consistent about it. I don't remember it being such an equivalent issue for both parties, and perhaps it's because there's no incumbent seeking office.

MS. IFILL:And because
George Bush
is at 32 percent in the polls...

MR. DIONNE:That's right. Right.

MR. TODD:...and
change
is a really big word. And you what's funny about what you said,
Tim
, whatever anybody calls
Hillary Clinton
at a
John McCain
meeting, the
McCaincampaign
is really rooting for
Hillary
to win
Iowa
because they want some of those independents to come into the Republican primary. And they're more likely to if the Democratic race looks over.

MR. DIONNE:Ten seconds.

MR. RUSSERT:Well, now, I, I was just going to say that I think
McCain
, this
McCain
/
New Hampshire
thing, he needs a spark in
Iowa
, and he might be making a mistake. But...

MR. TODD:To be continued. Thank you all.

MR. RUSSERT:We'll be right back and look back at the 60-year history of
MEET THE PRESS
, the longest- running
television program
in history.

A look back at our 60-year history on
MEET THE PRESS
after this station break.

MR. RUSSERT:And we are back. Every president since
John F. Kennedy
has appeared on
MEET THE PRESS
, and so have nearly a dozen
vice presidents
, 15 secretaries of defense, every secretary of
state
since
John Foster Dulles
, and leaders from around the world -- presidents,
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, dictators, premiers and
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from nearly 40 countries. Most interesting to me has been the number of parents and children who have appeared on
MEET THE PRESS
over the past six decades -- the
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, the
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,
Nehru
and
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, the
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, the
Hoffas
, the
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;
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,
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and
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.
Kennedy
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and
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;
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and
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.

MR. RUSSERT:For 60 years, in more than 3,000 programs,
Americans
have watched newsmakers make their case right here on
MEET THE PRESS
. Let's watch.

There are very few things in life that are permanent, particular in television.
MEET THE PRESS
has been on the air for more than a half century, 60 years, six decades.

(
1949
) I'm one of those persons that doesn't believe that a political
party
ought to just be a rallying ground for anybody that wants to get under the tent. I'm of the opinion that a political
party
ought to stand for something.

MR. HUBERT HUMPHREY:(
1950
) We may have to use lumberjack tactics, bare-knuckle tactics. If those are the only kind of tactics the communists understand, then those are the tactics we will use.

MS. ELEANOR ROOSEVELT:People all across the country can make an appointment on Sunday morning, sit in their chair and have a cup of coffee and learn quite a bit about their leaders and their government.

MR. RUSSERT:We have a situation now with
Cuba
where Mr.
Khrushchev
is threatening if we take any action. We don't know exactly what action would bring about this rain of rockets.

PRES. JOHN F. KENNEDY:Mr.
Nixon
has a
Dixie
speech, and he has a northern speech. I have made the same speech in all the places that I've been.

PRES. RICHARD NIXON:Honesty and candor has been restored in government.

PRES. GERALD FORD:Neither I nor the
American people
would support the sending of an American team to
Moscow
with
Soviet invasion
troops in
Afghanistan
.

PRES. JIMMY CARTER:I don't have an ideology. I think ideology is a scare word.

PRES. RONALD REAGAN:I do not approve of arms for hostages.

PRES. GEORGE H.W. BUSH:I don't think there's ever been a president of either
party
and any philosophy that didn't think that he should've gotten a better press.

PRES. BILL CLINTON:A war of choice or a war of necessity? It's a war of necessity.

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prime ministers
and
kings
--
MEET THE PRESS
is a real window to the world.

MR. RUSSERT:(
1959
) I am not communism. I am not agree with communism.

PRES. FIDEL CASTRO:(
1958
) We do not recognize the
communist regime
on the mainland. We consider them bandits.

MADAME CHIANG KAI-SHEK:(
1969
) A strong
Israel
is not only the best guarantee for peace, but is the best incentive for peace.

MS. GOLDA MEIR:(
1976
) My aim and the aim of my organization and the aim of my people is to establish our democratic
Palestinian state
, where
Jews
, Christians and Muslims can live in equality and friendship.

MR. YASSER ARAFAT:(
1973
) As far as we are concerned, we are not the toys of any country, including the
United States
.

SHAH OF IRAN:(
1985
) If peace is achieved, if there is progress towards it in my lifetime, it will be the crowning achievement of my life.

KING HUSSEIN OF JORDAN:(
2004
) The attack on
America
was an attack on us, too, because we stand for the same things.

PRIME MINISTER TONY BLAIR:Debates, investigations, partisanship --
Washington
is a tough town with some tough players, and they aren't shy about making their positions known.

MR. RUSSERT:(
1961
) I wonder whether or not you would enjoy being investigated for the pure
sense
of power to investigate.

MR. JIMMY HOFFA:(
1998
) There's going to be a war.

MR. JAMES CARVILLE:(
1998
) A war between whom?

MR. RUSSERT:(
1998
) Between the friends of the president and the
independent counsel
. That's exactly who it's between.

MR. CARVILLE:(
1995
) It's inconceivable to me that this president would deliberately refuse to negotiate and deliberately prefer to just have the whole system break down.

MR. AARON BROUSSARD:MEET THE PRESS
has a unique role in
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, a vital role in democracy in wartime, peacetime and times of
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MR. RUSSERT:(
1951
) We're not attacking
Korea
, but we were pledged to the establishment of a free and independent
Korea
. And we responded, and the whole
American people
was for it.

MR. THOMAS DEWEY:(
1971
) This war can be ended, and it should be ended now.

SEN. JOHN KERRY:(
1979
) Everything that I did during the war was to try to bring it to a close.

MS. JANE FONDA:(
1991
) It's never been the American policy to go after a single individual or try to kill anyone.

GEN. NORMAN SCHWARZKOPF:(
2001
) We thought it was an accident, a strange accident. And then on the drive to
Capitol Hill
, we heard about the second plane. So then we knew, of
course
, it was a
terrorist attack
.

MS. LAURA BUSH:(
2001
) I remember stopping -- I didn't have a lot of time to stop and think, I just remember saying to myself this is something that -- this is something much worse than we've ever experienced before.

MR. RUDY GIULIANI:(
2003
) I don't think it's likely to unfold that way,
Tim
, because I really do believe we will be greeted as liberators.

VICE PRES. DICK CHENEY:I view
MEET THE PRESS
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March 2006
) There's a lot of concern that the judgments made about the war before we went in have just proven not to be correct. We were told we'd be greeted as liberators, that there would not be a long, protracted, bloody insurrection. How could we have been so wrong?

(
April 2006
)
John McCain
, thanks for joining us and sharing your views.

I haven't had so much fun since my last interrogation.

SEN. JOHN McCAIN:I believe I have to be aggressive, but I also have to be civil. And, if I can always remember that, I will have fulfilled my role as moderator in the proud tradition of
Martha Rountree
and
Larry Spivak
and the 60 years of
MEET THE PRESS
.

MR. RUSSERT:Miss Martha Rountree
, moderator of
MEET THE PRESS
.

ANNOUNCER:Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to another session of
MEET THE PRESS
.

MR. RUSSERT:During this week of
Thanksgiving
, let our troops know we're thinking about them through the
Pentagon
's
America Supports You
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Anniversary
celebration continues on our
Web site
. Senator
Ted Kennedy
, who has the longest tenure on
MEET THE PRESS
, first appearing here 45 years ago, and the reporters with the most appearances,
David Broder
and
Robert Novak
, they all share their memories of
MEET THE PRESS
. You can also view a
slide show
of the important
MEET THE PRESS
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MR. RUSSERT:That's all for today. We'll be back next week. If it's Sunday, it's
MEET THE PRESS
. And if
Boston College
can beat
Clemson
in
Happy Valley
, the
Bills
-- get ready
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Happy Thanksgiving
. Tonight on