NL WEST

TEAM THAT SHOULD WIN THE DIVISION

The last time the NL West had a repeat champion, the year was 2006 and the club was San Diego, which makes it seem like a very long time ago. The GM of that Padres club was Kevin Towers, who’s looking to do it again with Arizona, which ran away with the 2011 West title after losing 97 games the year before.

The Padres, who finished 23 games ahead of the Diamondbacks in 2010, wound up 25 games behind Arizona in 2011. Meanwhile, the Dodgers had the Cy Young pitcher and the should’ve-been MVP and barely broke .500. The Giants went from their first World Series championship since moving to San Francisco to postseason-free October, ostensibly because they lost the services of a veritable rookie of a catcher.

Now that young Buster Posey’s back behind the plate, the Giants are the popular pick in the NL West, mostly by folks who don’t live in the NL West and have no idea what it’s like to exist in a place where up is down and circular is square and every NL game played in this time zone seems decided by a run. The game’s only run.

In the NL West – the only division besides the all-hail AL East that’s had three winning teams in each of the past two seasons -- four of the five member club have won the division over the last six years. And the only exception played in a World Series as a wild card.

TEAM THAT CAN’T

Given that the Padres have finished fourth or fifth in three of the last four seasons, they might be the most logical choice. But their pitching is still far better than the Rockies, and out here, that’s kinda all that matters.

BEST PITCHER

Even in a division obsessed with great pitching, Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw made this a pretty short debate in 2011, winning 21 games with a majors-best 2.28 ERA and 248 strikeouts. Tim Lincecum’s still got him in Cy Youngs, though, two to one.

X-FACTOR

Order in the McCourt! So now both Southern California clubs in the NL West are having to deal with all sorts of protracted ownership problems that stem from divorce. Just as the Dodgers are still trying to figure out who’s in charge – and the McCourt fallout on the field has been nuclear -- the Padres are unsure about what happens next on high. Difference is, once the Dodgers are sold, the new owners likely aren’t going to scrimp to add talent.

NEXT BEST THING

Out from behind Joey Votto in Cincinnati, new Padres first baseman Yonder Alonso has his golden opportunity to not only play every day, but hit the way he likes in a ballpark built for line-drive hitters like him. And the Giants’ young first baseman, Brandon Belt, may still turn out to be a monster.

BEST LINEUP

Out of habit, you type “Colorado,” but not so fast. Arizona’s put together a solid lineup around do-it-all Justin Upton, returning four players who hit 18 or more homers last year, and both the offense and defense should get a boost with the return of shortstop Stephen Drew from injury. Arizona’s lineup has some Kirk Gibson to it too, as evidenced by 48 come-from-behind wins last year.

BEST ROTATION

San Francisco. 1(a). Los Angeles. 1(b). San Diego.

BEST BULLPEN

Giants again. The one thing the Padres have always had on almost everybody else in baseball was their ‘pen, but you don’t subtract Heath Bell after Mike Adams and expect things to stay hunky-dory, although Petco makes all things pitching possible.

SURPRISE WAITING TO HAPPEN

See last year. And the year before. And the year before that. The Rockies, wrapping up their second decade of existence, are still seeking their first-ever division crown.

DID YOU KNOW?

For all the talk about the Padres playing boring baseball -- and for what it’s worth in the grand scheme -- San Diego is a go-go club in one respect. The Padres had the most stolen bases (170) and the second-best success rate (79.00) in the game in ’11.

Both are 27, both play premier defensive positions and both are Silver Sluggers at those spots. But while Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is the all-around player you build your team around, center fielder Matt Kemp of the Dodgers took things to new, extraordinary heights (.324/39/126). He finished one homer shy of 40-40. Encore?

NL CENTRAL

TEAM THAT SHOULD WIN THE DIVISION

Prince/Albert went to the American League, leaving the NL Central with a sudden and severe power outage and the Cincinnati Reds with opportunity they should need for a second division crown in three years. Could turn out that the guy the Cards really shouldn’t have let get away was Walt Jocketty, who’s got the Reds in a win-now mode, judging from the talent he sent to San Diego to get Mat Latos.

TEAM THAT CAN’T

Of course, it’s the Lastros, who trotted 20 rookies through their lineup last year. But don’t you also have to think the St. Louis Cardinals are about to go from World Series champion to non-contender in only a matter of months, tumbling into the Grand Canyon-sized hole left in the batting order by Albert Pujols, who never played fewer than 143 games in any of his 11 seasons with the Redbirds? Perhaps more importantly, they’ve also lost their genius in Tony LaRussa, replaced by someone (Mike Matheny) who’s never been a skipper at any professional level. Adam Wainright’s coming off Tommy John surgery and Chris Carpenter was shut down about halfway through spring training.

BEST PITCHER

“Best,” in this case, being relative. To find the NL Central pitcher with the lowest ERA last year, you had to go through 13 hurlers in the other two division before arriving at Chicago starter Matt Garza at 3.32. The guy you might least want to face is Milwaukee closer John Axford, who struck out 86 batters in the course of 73.2 innings and 46 saves.

X-FACTOR

As always, the Cubbies, but for entirely different reasons than usual. Theo Epstein has a much bigger job on his hands than he had in Boston – a near-complete clubhouse-cleaning of the Cubs may be necessary -- but things can go from bad to better a lot faster in the NL Central than the AL East.

NEXT BEST THING

This may sound familiar. Now the Cubs’ general manager, Jed Hoyer already has one of his cornerstones in Anthony Rizzo, the can’t-miss kid who basically missed with the Padres and gets a do-over. Oh, is that dude going to love Wrigley.

BEST LINEUP

Preposterously enough, it actually might be the Cardinals, who’ve got a batting order full of veterans who’ve been around and around. But good luck keeping the likes of Rafael Furcal, Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman out there on a daily basis.

BEST ROTATION

Pitching in the hittin’est ballpark in the NL, the Reds went for pitching in a big way, adding the 6-foot-5 Latos to Johnny Cueto, Brandon Arroyo, Mike Leake and possibly flamethrower Aroldis Chapman. The big question now is how the easily disrupted Latos will handle it when flies that were cans-of-corn at Petco go plunk in the Ohio River. Milwaukee has three 200-inning guys – Yovani Gallardo, Shawn Marcum and Randy Wolf – and a former Cy Young in Zack Greinke.

BEST BULLPEN

Milwaukee, though let’s give a special nod to All-Star closer Joel Hanrahan, an All-Star pick who posted 40 saves (and 1.83 ERA) with the Pirates. Thus, he and Heath Bell became two of just nine pitchers in major league history who hit the 40-save mark with teams losing 90 or more games.

SURPRISE WAITING TO HAPPEN

In the most unlikely event that Pittsburgh can post a winning record – or, heck, even win 80 games – the Pirates would provide a fitting 20th anniversary celebration of the last time they did it.

DID YOU KNOW?

The entries in the “Sausage Races” at Miller Park run under a gag order, disallowed by the team to be interviewed before or after. “The sausages don’t talk,” Brewers vice president Tyler Barnes told the New York Times. “It’s one of the basic rules of racing meat.”

Joey Votto, 1B, Reds. Even without Pujols and Fielder, the last two league MVP’s are still in the NL Central. While he travels from park to park with the stigma of a failed drug test during last postseason, Ryan Braun also could find out that life is much, much more difficult without the shield provided by Prince Fielder. Votto’s a certifiable force, even more effective on the road than he is at Great American Ball Park, which makes no sense whatsoever. Except that Votto’s that good.

NL EAST

TEAM THAT SHOULD WIN THE DIVISION

Ooh, tough call. How about the same franchise that’s won every NL East title since the end of 2006, the Phillies? In doing so, the Phillies have gotten better every regular season, winning 89, 92, 93, 97 and 102 games – in that order. Even with the unavailability of Chase Utley at the season’s outset and Ryan Howard’s tenuous tendon, the well-armed Phils remain a team in their own division, if not their own league.

TEAM THAT CAN’T

Mets. It would be beyond Amazin’ if New York even manages to avert a drop to the cellar, what with the Marlins and Nats on the rise. The Mets are still trying to recover not only from the injury of Johan Santana, but from their dealings with another kind of pitch man, Bernie Madoff.

BEST PITCHER

Consider it completely lacking in objectivity – and way too high an expectation, considering he’s still less than two years removed from Tommy John surgery – to pencil in “Stephen Strasburg” here. Especially in a division that still has Roy Halladay (see below) as one – and still the best -- of its many aces. A total of 133 home runs were struck last season at Citizens Bank Park. Only three came off Halladay, who had the same number of complete games at home last year.

X-FACTOR

Los Pescados. Even when they were a low-budget team playing in a football stadium, waiting out monsoons on a regular basis, the Florida Marlins went to World Series and won them. Now living under a roof and adorned in all their Skittles-colored glory, the Marlins are the buzz of baseball, well-paid and well-motivated by feisty, shoot-from-the-lip manager Ozzie Guillen.

NEXT BEST THING

Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Marlins. While all the fuss is about Bryce Harper and whether he’ll be in the Washington lineup before the end of the season, Stanton’s already batting cleanup for the Fish, and the 34 homers he struck last year were only a hint of what’s to come. Formerly better known as “Mike,” the tight-end-sized Stanton also answers to “Bigfoot.”

BEST LINEUP

For sheer excitement, the razzle-dazzle Marlins look built for both speed and power, the desired result when you boost your payroll from $57 million to more than $100 million.

BEST ROTATION

Where do the Phillies think they are, the NL West? Playing home games in one of the best hitters’ parks in the game, the Phillies recorded a team earned-run average of 3.02, a 2.86 among their starters. Ridiculous.

BEST BULLPEN

The Marlins snagged Heath Bell, the Phillies brought in Jonathan Papelbon and the Nationals got Brad Lidge. But the Braves have the most wicked lefty-righty combo at the back end in Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel, plus another sensational southpaw in Eric O’Flaherty.

SURPRISE WAITING TO HAPPEN

Well, the Nationals haven’t finished a season with a winning record since they were the 2003 Montreal Expos, and that certainly could change in 2012.

DID YOU KNOW?

Despite those two World Series titles, the Marlins are yet to win their first East Division title.

Hanley Ramirez, 3B, Marlins. Scary to think Jose Reyes isn’t even the most talented all-around guy on the left side of his own infield, but Ramirez is an MVP-type player if he has his head on right. An especially big “if” in that he’s been forced to play third to make room for Reyes at short.