Mystery About Saddam Distresses U.s. Military

April 05, 2003|By GREG MILLER and BOB DROGIN Special to the Daily Press

WASHINGTON — With U.S. forces poised for a dangerous assault on Baghdad, Iraq, military and other officials say there is a distressing lack of intelligence on the whereabouts of Saddam Hussein, his inner circle and the regime's suspected stores of banned weapons.

Saddam's appearance Friday on Iraqi television underscored the level of uncertainty, providing the first credible indication that he might have survived airstrikes some believed had killed him at the outset of the war.

That attack raised hopes that the war might end before it had fully begun, or at least that U.S. intelligence might have a good bead on the Iraqi dictator. But officials said intelligence out of Baghdad since that attack largely has dried up, despite expectations that the enormous military pressure bearing down on Saddam's regime would prompt a wave of defections and a flood of information by this point in the war.

Pentagon officials this week expressed concern that intelligence on the Iraqi leadership is "weak" despite the daring work of CIA informants and operatives inside the capital city.

One senior Pentagon official struck a blind pose -- eyes closed, arms extended -- when asked about the quality of intelligence war planners are getting.

"Nobody can tell us where anybody is," the official said. "Nobody can tell us what buildings they're in so that we can bomb them. I'd call that weak."

Intelligence officials dispute that characterization, but acknowledge they have had limited success in locating Saddam and other high-interest officials inside Baghdad. They also stressed it is an exceedingly difficult assignment.

The spy community's most sensitive information is coming from a small number -- perhaps a dozen or fewer -- of Iraqi informants operating inside Baghdad on behalf of the CIA and the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency.

The operatives were sent into Baghdad before the war started with high-speed communications gear that enables them to send sensitive information through encoded satellite transmissions and other means to CIA and DIA officers positioned elsewhere in the country, according to an intelligence official familiar with the operation.

The operatives scavenge for information on the whereabouts of the Iraqi leadership, serve as spotters at key locations in the city where Saddam and other members of his inner circle might surface, and have directed U.S. airstrikes on a number of key targets.

Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, praised the work of the operatives, saying, "The assets we have (in Baghdad) in regard to military targets have been excellent."

But he and others acknowledged that reliable, specific information on Saddam, his two powerful sons, Uday and Qusay, and others in the senior leadership has been scant to nonexistent.

"We've been making every effort," Roberts said. "But it's easier said than done. His modus operandi is that he's constantly on the move, using doubles," and relying on layers of security to prevent outsiders from getting close to him.

Indeed, the best piece of intelligence produced so far -- the tip that led to the initial strike on Saddam -- came from Iraqi sources who subsequently were whisked out of the city to safety, several officials said. The officials added that it is not clear whether or when the operatives would be reinserted.

Intelligence officials described the Baghdad assignments as perhaps the most dangerous missions under CIA control. They said the effort has emphasized intelligence collection, and several denied published reports that the United States has paramilitary teams hunting Saddam inside Baghdad or engaged in assassination operations.

One U.S. official familiar with the latest intelligence on Iraq said there are indications there was a crackdown within Saddam's regime following the first strike and that some members of his inner security ring were killed.

Outside Baghdad, CIA case officers and members of its paramilitary Special Activities Division have been linking up with Iraqi tribal leaders. Former agency officials said it is almost certain these operatives are doling out cash much the way they did in Afghanistan.

"I'm sure we've got guys with 80-pound rucksacks full of $100 bills," said a former CIA station chief. "I'm sure we're buying up some folks."

Another former CIA officer with extensive experience in Iraq said Sunni tribes "are heavily represented in the security establishment" in Baghdad, and securing their loyalties could help coax forces close to Saddam to sit out the end of the war.

But other officials said the tribal leaders are just as likely to side with Saddam, if they feel he can survive, and pocket whatever CIA money they get.