Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2011 Top Prospect List Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.

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2. Jenrry Mejia | RHP | Age – 21 | Grade – B/B+ … Grade sorta reflects the very real possibility he ends up in the bullpen…as a starter, I think I’d rate him over Flores.

3. Matt Harvey | RHP | Age – 22 | Grade – B … I like him…could be a B+ by next year. I lay out the mechanical overhaul undergone by Harvey since his high school days in his report.

4. Reese Havens | SS/2b | Age – 24 | Grade – B- … Health, health, health. He’s a really good hitter when he plays. He just needs to play more often. Not surprisingly, he’s starting the 2011 season on the DL with an oblique injury.

5. Cory Vaughn | RF | Age – 22 | Grade – B- … I’m ranking him maybe four spots higher than I’d like to…he has serious question marks, especially in his ability to make contact, which hasn’t been that big an issue for him thus far. But I am intrigued by his combination of power and speed.

*Ike Davis, Fernando Martinez, Jon Niese, Ruben Tejada, Josh Thole, and Chris Carter are no longer considered prospects based on the criteria set forth for these lists.

Wilmer Flores bounced back from a down 2009 season and got his development back on track. His power more than doubled in output, he made slightly more contact, and his walks took a sharp turn upward. He’s nowhere close to the hitter he needs to be, but his performance was a big improvement over what we saw in 2009.

It’s easy to forget — since he’s been around for a while now — that Flores turned 19 just last August.

He has terrific size, but he’s much more of a pure hitter than a masher. He keeps a very short swing and can spoil pitches in an effort to extend at bats. He has tremendously quick hands, and uses them to slash line drives to all fields.

However, you need more than quick hands to hit for power. For sufficient power, you have to incorporate into your swing your entire lower body and hips. You have to allow the ball to travel deep into your hitting zone just prior to unloading on it rather than looking to achieve extension early by just throwing your hands at the ball.

These were areas where Flores made progress. He started trusting the speed of his hands to catch up to even good fastballs that were fast approaching home plate. Below you can see Flores the ball travel into his hitting zone before unloading on it:

He got his lower body a little more involved in his swing as well, though I think he can do more there. It’s actually difficult to evaluate Flores’ use of his lower body because he’s constantly changing his stride into foot plant.

As Flores continues to make progress offensively, his defense continues to fall behind as he slides down the positional spectrum. It would be ideal if Flores could shift to third base where his soft hands and strong arm would play, but his lack of foot speed and very limited range would make it difficult. So it would appear Flores’ most likely destination is either first base or a corner outfield spot.

Even with the eventual move, Flores’ bat is expected to play at the position. He’s already an extremely advanced hitter for his age and should easily hit for average. Now it’s about being a little more selective than he is, which hopefully will be followed the eventual power breakthrough. Remember, power is typically the last thing hitters develop.

Flores did struggle a bit with his mid-season promotion to the Florida State League in 2010, so it’s important that he be able to conquer that level this year.

Best Case Outcome – All Star first baseman, but you really have to dream on him.

More Likely Outcome – Above average everyday first baseman who hits for a high average and gets on base at a solid rate, while sporting good, but not great power.

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