Rival Rallies Fuel Lebanon Tensions

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened to wage “open war” against Israel in retaliation for top military chief Imad Mugniyah’s death in a car explosion on Tuesday.

Although Israel has denied responsibility, some observers have suggested Mugniyah's assassination bears the signature of the Israeli secret services.

Israel has strengthened security measures at home and at its institutions abroad.

Mugniyah’s funeral on Thursday coincided with rallies marking the third anniversary of the assassination of former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri. Syria is believed to be behind Hariri’s death, as he had pushed to limit Syria's influence in Lebanese affairs.

Thousands of troops were deployed to prevent clashes between the pro-Syrian Hezbollah sympathizers and the anti-Syrian Hariri mourners.

Lebanon has had no president or functioning parliament since November. The chances of that situation being resolved diminished with the December assassination of Brigadier General Francois Hajj, who was tipped to become Lebanese army chief, and the shooting of rioting Shiite youths in January.

Many commentators compared the most recent violence to the incidents that led to the Lebanese Civil War, with a Middle East Times reporter writing that the country “stands to erupt into uncontrollable violence at the slightest clash.”

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has threatened to retaliate against Israel, which it accuses of the assassination of top military chief Imad Mugniyah. Nasrallah made his threat during Mugniyah’s funeral, which coincided with rallies commemorating former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri, slain three years ago.

Thousands of troops were deployed to prevent clashes between anti-Syrian marchers and pro-Syrian Mugniyah mourners. Tensions between political factions have been rising, and the country has had no president since November.

Tensions are running high in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, as the pro-West government and the pro-Syria, Hezbollah-led opposition have been toughening up their rhetoric. There have been reports of street fights in the past weeks.

Lebanese MP and pro-government party leader Walid Jumblatt said Thursday that Hezbollah is a “totalitarian party” and that there was no place for it in the governing coalition. Jumblatt said that either Hezbollah or Syria is responsible for the assassinations of Brigadier General Francois Hajj and Major Wissam Eid.

Lebanon “stands to erupt into uncontrollable violence at the slightest clash,” wrote Sana Abdallah, Middle East Times staff writer. The Lebanese army killed several rioting Shiite youths in January. In December, Brigadier General Francois Hajj died in a car blast. He was to succeed General Michel Suleiman as commander of the Lebanese military after the latter became president.

Israel has reinforced security along its border with Lebanon and alerted its institutions abroad to the increased likelihood of kidnappings and attacks against Israeli targets. The tightening of security comes after Hezbollah’s leader vowed Thursday to avenge the killing of military chief Imad Mugniyah, who died in a car blast Tuesday.

Mohamad Bazzi, former Middle East bureau chief for Newsday, said in an interview for the Council on Foreign Relations that General Hajj was most likely killed by Fatah al-Islam operatives for leading a campaign against the group in a Palestinian refugee camp. Hajj had no known anti-Syrian connections. Bazzi said that the general’s assassination in December may push Lebanon’s rival factions toward reaching a quick compromise.

During his term as prime minister, Rafik Hariri helped build the Lebanese economy and educational system, according to an article in Al-Hayat, a pan-Arab daily. “Whenever an airplane lands at or takes off from Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut, the achievements of the Lebanese giant are recalled,” Al-Hayat writes. Rafik was murdered for pushing for Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, the article states.

One of Hezbollah’s most senior figures, Imad Mugniyah was “the most wanted terrorist in the world before Osama bin Laden came onto intelligence radar screens.” Very little is known about him, but American security forces credit him with masterminding every major terrorist operation executed by Hezbollah in the last quarter-century.

“Some consider Mughniyah to have been the Bin Laden before there was a Bin Laden,” writes Scott MacLeod in Time’s Middle East blog. Former CIA officer Robert Baer called him “the most dangerous terrorist we’ve ever faced.” MacLeod says that the possibility of Iranian or Syrian involvement in the assassination should not be ruled out.

Hezbollah emerged in 1982 as a response to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. It is a Shia militia group that has grown to become a major political force in Lebanon, with a significant presence in the Beirut parliament and close links to Iran and Syria. The Council on Foreign Relations presents a comprehensive overview of the group, which currently consists of “several thousand militants and activists,” according to U.S. government estimates.

The Lebanese Civil War began on the morning of April 13, 1975, with a drive-by shooting that killed four of the congregation at a church in east Beirut. Initially the fighting was between Christian, Muslim, and Palestinian groups, but the conflict grew as Israel and Syria became involved.

The war claimed the lives of 150,000 people, and crippled the Lebanese economy. Beirut, once the "Paris of the Middle East" and a vibrant tourist destination, was left in ruins. A timeline for the Lebanese Civil War is illustrated with photographs for each significant event on this blog.

The 15-year conflict was, according to the BBC, both a civil and a regional war. It left Lebanon "firmly under Syria's thumb, and with a southern strip of territory occupied by Israel as a buffer zone." Iran got involved by proxy: it helped create Hezbollah to fight Israel and protect Lebanese Shiites. Israel withdrew from Lebanon in 2000. Syria left in 2005 in the wake of the protests that followed the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

Israel became involved in the civil war because of the presence of the PLO in southern Lebanon, from where the Palestinian organization launched attacks on Israeli territory. In turn, the Israeli action encouraged the further involvement of Syria, which feared the spread of Israel's influence northwards. The Lebanese-American Association gives an account of the war, drawing on U.S. historical sources.