“Also, the corn market is benefiting from the fact that U.S. corn is cheap enough. China getting blasted by the White House Economic Council Larry Kudlow for being the ones to delay a solution has not helped beans action. China is asking who speaks for the U.S. government? No one knows,” Scoville says.

He adds, “No movement with China, but it looks like a deal could come together with Mexico. Still pretty quiet for us here, but people starting to think that grains and soybeans have or will be seeing a bottom.”

On Thursday, the USDA released its Weekly Export Sales Report showing strong demand for corn and soybeans.

Corn = 1.415 million metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 500,000 and 1,000,000 mt.

“It looks like some good-sized short covering coming into the pit,” Scoville says.

The trade got worse-than-expected condition ratings last night, especially corn, and that seems to be the big point in the market today, Scoville says.

“The weather has been less than perfect so an uneven crop is appearing. Trade problems have taken a back seat to the weather for now, and why not? We have dropped a whole lot in the last month to six weeks because of Trump and his tariffs. The tariffs will limit upside, but these prices should start to attract new demand,” Scoville says.

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Monday’s grain market review

On Monday, the CME Group’s soybean market jumps on global trade talk.

At the close, September corn futures finished ½¢ higher at $3.41¾; December futures finished ½¢ higher at $3.55¼.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.65 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 10 points higher.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says the farm markets are up on a rumor of trade negotiations.

“Grains are having a nice relief rally today led by the soybean market with rumors that China-U.S. trade negotiations are in sight. Also, lower crop ratings are expected in today’s report, which would confirm the corn and bean crop could be as large as trade estimates,” Roose says.

“Today, we have had a small bounce back, but this story is far from over,” Shellady says.

Shellady says it’s important to keep in mind that the trade tariffs with China have done some real damage.

“We’ve gone from one-year highs in the soybean market to 10-year lows. We’re seeing a 22% hit in farm revenue value for bean farmers, an 18% hit in corn, although China does not import corn. That roughly equates to $20 billion,” Shellady says.

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