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Garry South

The GOP’s Latino problem

First, a history lesson. In three of the last four non-presidential elections, Republicans actually nominated Latinos for statewide office: Ruben Barrales for controller in 1998, Gary Mendoza for insurance commissioner in 2002 and Maldonado for lieutenant governor in 2010. All three were attractive, articulate candidates with compelling personal stories.

But all three went down in flames, receiving an average of only 37.9% of the vote. And there is no indication in postelection analyses that they received any meaningfully higher share of the Latino vote than a white male GOP candidate would have gotten.

In fact, the last Republican Latino statewide officeholder was elected 142 years ago, when Romualdo Pacheco won the lieutenant governorship in 1871, then served several months as governor in 1875.

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Funny… this Latino doesn’t have a problem with the GOP (well, generally, anyway). Why don’t they just admit, what they have is a Mexican problem.

I’m pretty tired of having the problems of illegal Mexicans lumped in with those of us that have our roots in the Carribean and other places that don’t happen to be Mexico. The left is sensational at using language to control an issue, I have to say.

…and if you elect a Latino statewide office holder, you still end up with liberal demonizing of that person in order to hold on to ‘their’ demographic. See Ted Cruz and the reaction his election in Texas has stirred up, to the point he must be branded as not a real Latino by the Democrats and their supporters in the big media.

Bill Whittle made a good point. We can`t beat the progressives when they offer free stuff. We need to offer them better stuff. Instead of a welfare check, lower tax and regulations so jobs are available and they can collect a bigger paycheck. Instead of crappy HUD housing, that same job allows you to buy a real good home of your own and so on and so on.

He also said Romney should have come to the inner cities, take the barbs shot at him and ask the crowd “Is this the best life you can be living right now….” and do what is said above.

I know y’all think I’m nuts, but I think the latest round of amnesty is going to fail. 0bama’s plan was to conjure up the mother of all fecal storms while the House was to be contemplating the gun bill. Shepard Fairey had even made the new pink equal sign that was supposed to be the Left’s logo (which, you will notice, was supposed to be released during House negotiations–oops). The upshot of the fecal storm over the gun bill was to ensure the House uses too much political capital killing the gun bill, and enough House members will feel they have to vote for amnesty to make amends. Since the Senate killed the gun bill, this is much less likely.

Right now, there has been an uptick in border crossings by Mexicans hoping they will be able to forge whatever documentation of long-term residency would be asked for by the amnesty bill. I suspect should amnesty fail, as I think it will, they will leave. There is evidence from the Pew Hispanic Center that the illegals here have already stopped having babies, likely in anticipation of leaving the US for a more prosperous Latin America than the one they left. By 2016, it may not matter what illegal Mexican immigrants who have somehow found ways to vote think of Republicans.

I know y’all think I’m nuts, but I think the latest round of amnesty is going to fail. 0bama’s plan was to conjure up the mother of all fecal storms while the House was to be contemplating the gun bill. Shepard Fairey had even made the new pink equal sign that was supposed to be the Left’s logo (which, you will notice, was supposed to be released during House negotiations–oops). The upshot of the fecal storm over the gun bill was to ensure the House uses too much political capital killing the gun bill, and enough House members will feel they have to vote for amnesty to make amends. Since the Senate killed the gun bill, this is much less likely.

Right now, there has been an uptick in border crossings by Mexicans hoping they will be able to forge whatever documentation of long-term residency would be asked for by the amnesty bill. I suspect should amnesty fail, as I think it will, they will leave. There is evidence from the Pew Hispanic Center that the illegals here have already stopped having babies, likely in anticipation of leaving the US for a more prosperous Latin America than the one they left. By 2016, it may not matter what illegal Mexican immigrants who have somehow found ways to vote think of Republicans.

William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, analyzed the 2012 elections for the AP using census data on eligible voters and turnout, along with November’s exit polling. He estimated total votes for Obama and Romney under a scenario where 2012 turnout rates for all racial groups matched those in 2004. Overall, 2012 voter turnout was roughly 58 percent, down from 62 percent in 2008 and 60 percent in 2004.

The analysis also used population projections to estimate the shares of eligible voters by race group through 2030. The numbers are supplemented with material from the Pew Research Center and George Mason University associate professor Michael McDonald, a leader in the field of voter turnout who separately reviewed aggregate turnout levels across states, as well as AP interviews with the Census Bureau and other experts. The bureau is scheduled to release data on voter turnout in May.

Overall, the findings represent a tipping point for blacks, who for much of America’s history were disenfranchised and then effectively barred from voting until passage of the Voting Rights Act in 1965.

But the numbers also offer a cautionary note to both Democrats and Republicans after Obama won in November with a historically low percentage of white supporters. While Latinos are now the biggest driver of U.S. population growth, they still trail whites and blacks in turnout and electoral share, because many of the Hispanics in the country are children or noncitizens.

In recent weeks, Republican leaders have urged a “year-round effort” to engage black and other minority voters, describing a grim future if their party does not expand its core support beyond white males.

The 2012 data suggest Romney was a particularly weak GOP candidate, unable to motivate white voters let alone attract significant black or Latino support. Obama’s personal appeal and the slowly improving economy helped overcome doubts and spur record levels of minority voters in a way that may not be easily replicated for Democrats soon.

Romney would have erased Obama’s nearly 5 million-vote victory margin and narrowly won the popular vote if voters had turned out as they did in 2004, according to Frey’s analysis. Then, white turnout was slightly higher and black voting lower.

More significantly, the battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida and Colorado would have tipped in favor of Romney, handing him the presidency if the outcome of other states remained the same.

“The 2012 turnout is a milestone for blacks and a huge potential turning point,” said Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University who has written extensively on black politicians. “What it suggests is that there is an `Obama effect’ where people were motivated to support Barack Obama. But it also means that black turnout may not always be higher, if future races aren’t as salient.”

This sounds plausible. It might be helpful if you to provide some stats on Carribean-conservative voting patterns.

Right now, there has been an uptick in border crossings by Mexicans hoping they will be able to forge whatever documentation of long-term residency would be asked for by the amnesty bill. I suspect should amnesty fail, as I think it will, they will leave. There is evidence from the Pew Hispanic Center that the illegals here have already stopped having babies, likely in anticipation of leaving the US for a more prosperous Latin America than the one they left. By 2016, it may not matter what illegal Mexican immigrants who have somehow found ways to vote think of Republicans.

Sekhmet on April 28, 2013 at 10:58 AM

If you’re not full of crap you will provide empirical data supporting your statements. Otherwise you’re lying.

That’s the more honest of the statements, compared with the title of the post/story.

People from Hispanic/Latin cultures expect a heavier government presence in their lives (read, “more stuff from the government”) that the as-yet GOP voter in general finds tolerable.

The “culture” aspect to most — on average, certainly not all individuals but the article is declaring “Latino’s” as a block, so I’m addressing them here as a block — is that they are accustomed and have supported for generations now Socialism if not Communism.

So they arrive in the US or are IN the US already for generations insisting on that same top-down-heavy government happening in the US as they or their grandparents or “Community” knew it to be from whence their cultural norms were established…and reinforced.

These “GOP spokespersons” (such as Rubio who makes many of these allegations, that “the GOP must” be in-sync with “Latinos” and “minorities” by which he means Blacks) are the problem themselves: they’re IN the GOP for purposes of Liberalizing the GOP farther into being another version of the DNC.

Funny… this Latino doesn’t have a problem with the GOP (well, generally, anyway). Why don’t they just admit, what they have is a Mexican problem.

I’m pretty tired of having the problems of illegal Mexicans lumped in with those of us that have our roots in the Carribean and other places that don’t happen to be Mexico. The left is sensational at using language to control an issue, I have to say.

princetrumpet on April 28, 2013 at 10:19 AM

Interesting. I agree, based on what I’ve experienced and see in the West.

Central America — as also Asia — have and continue to create most of the illegality as to immigration, next up is the Middle East (though that is traditionally also known as “Asia”).

The “Mexican problem” is actually a lot of people from other Central American countries — AND people from Asia and Middle East — who use Mexico combined in with Mexicans to continue to engage in illegal immigration to the US.

Even a decade ago or so, it was found that “over one-third of Mexico’s adult population” was in the US and many of them, illegally.