2010-11-11 16:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day2010-11-11 16:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?2010-11-11 16:00:30 [Message] darris -> Chat: Good, and how are you?2010-11-11 16:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine and dandy2010-11-11 16:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that sure was a wake up call you posted over at TT on the muni's2010-11-11 16:01:14 [Message] darris -> Chat: Little trend line break in the MCO today. CSCO did not seem to bother the nya common stocks though2010-11-11 16:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nah...after all...CSCO IS still a secondary stock 2010-11-11 16:01:46 [Message] darris -> Chat: Boy I sure am glad Randy organizes the data like he does!!!2010-11-11 16:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he's amazing2010-11-11 16:02:15 [Message] darris -> Chat: Every data set updated with component changes every day. wow2010-11-11 16:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a wealth of data not found anywhere I would surmise2010-11-11 16:02:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and he worked long and very hard in getting it2010-11-11 16:02:38 [Message] darris -> Chat: I think Lowry's does something like that. big bucks though2010-11-11 16:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know that Lowry's doesn't have the wealth that Randy does2010-11-11 16:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can start with the Bonds and it took them until 2008 to get the commons2010-11-11 16:03:44 [Message] darris -> Chat: I can not believe the second day in a row of the bond cefs getting slaughtered 1.45% again2010-11-11 16:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that was only because Tom made them to 2010-11-11 16:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CEF's?2010-11-11 16:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the muni's2010-11-11 16:04:42 [Message] darris -> Chat: The Bond CEFs!!! the Muni's are a good portion of the total, and they were probably killed again today2010-11-11 16:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we'll see how it looks tomorrow2010-11-11 16:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not worried at this juncture2010-11-11 16:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??2010-11-11 16:05:23 [Message] darris -> Chat: 30/240 breadth on the Bond cefs two days in a row2010-11-11 16:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we'll have to see how it looks on the chart2010-11-11 16:05:54 [Message] darris -> Chat: Let's get going and look at the MCO break today. thanks2010-11-11 16:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you keep a chart of the bons or just the data??2010-11-11 16:06:48 [Message] darris -> Chat: I probably do, but I do not think it is exactly like you post. I just see the price index chart dropping very sharply, and a bit different than we have seen for a year now2010-11-11 16:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...well we'll see if we've broken trend or not2010-11-11 16:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our making new all time highs last week2010-11-11 16:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would take a dismal week, in total, to even test the line2010-11-11 16:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always interesting when I upload the information on the weekends2010-11-11 16:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I never know what I'm going to see2010-11-11 16:08:04 [Message] darris -> Chat: 217/856 is the breadth totals for the week on the bond cefs so far2010-11-11 16:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't sound bad - it's all relative, I guess2010-11-11 16:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else...let me get DP up and we'll get started2010-11-11 16:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: inside range day on the NYA2010-11-11 16:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know if there's predictive value or not given that we're not trending lower2010-11-11 16:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after bouncing higher on Wednesday off the zero line, the CO NYSE breadth MCO is back to zero again2010-11-11 16:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we remain neutral near term2010-11-11 16:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this bouncing effect in and around the MCO zero line is giving us a horizontal shelf pattern on the NYSE breadth MCSUM2010-11-11 16:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then...no break in trend as yet2010-11-11 16:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remains higher2010-11-11 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the CO MCO components still well above their zero line suggesting this nothing but a correction2010-11-11 16:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chart wise2010-11-11 16:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have now fully snapped back to the April highs break out line2010-11-11 16:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so far...the test has been quite successful2010-11-11 16:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even with the added nudge from CSCO2010-11-11 16:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, by the way, has been a fairly weak stock for months now2010-11-11 16:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that, I'm kinda surprised at the way people are crying the blues with today's collapse2010-11-11 16:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...things like this tend to happen (news driven events) when the market is in need of a correction2010-11-11 16:14:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and knowing that the NASDAQ Open 10 was "overbought"2010-11-11 16:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sure we'll see later on that we've taken care of that in quick order2010-11-11 16:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after snapping back up to its zero line yesterday2010-11-11 16:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO continued lower today2010-11-11 16:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and putting ruler to monitor2010-11-11 16:17:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we are now testing the longer term rising bottoms line from the May lows2010-11-11 16:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last time when we tested this line we held 2010-11-11 16:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will this time be different?2010-11-11 16:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: history suggests that we're certainly due for a break2010-11-11 16:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this time around we have a bit of added incentive for a break2010-11-11 16:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in that we have already broken the rising trend line on the NYSE breadth MCSUM last month2010-11-11 16:19:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have now snapped back to this break of trend2010-11-11 16:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also weren't able to move above the October highs on the MCSUM2010-11-11 16:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this may be a better chance for this extension of the short term trend to ease off a little2010-11-11 16:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, of course, would be highly beneficial for the market longer term2010-11-11 16:20:25 [Message] doc -> Chat: Also still having a heck of a time clearing the "brother" mcsum gap resistance I lobbied for last month2010-11-11 16:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like a runner walking up a hill instead of racing up it2010-11-11 16:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...you have lobbied hard and strong 2010-11-11 16:21:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: I noticed the annotation this week for the NASDAQ version2010-11-11 16:21:04 [Message] doc -> Chat: thanks2010-11-11 16:21:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: you left it out for the nyse version2010-11-11 16:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a problem...2010-11-11 16:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..half is OK?2010-11-11 16:21:51 [Message] doc -> Chat: Sure2010-11-11 16:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can't make the charts too busy2010-11-11 16:22:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: This recent top on mcsum also came right at the variant downtrend line I posted last month2010-11-11 16:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have to be able to convey thoughts without being too overwhelming..2010-11-11 16:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...yes...2010-11-11 16:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we breakdown here...I will adjust the line to "fit"2010-11-11 16:22:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: Only using the March April tops2010-11-11 16:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you know why the line is placed as it is2010-11-11 16:23:16 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes you told me2010-11-11 16:23:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: It goes back to earlier peaks2010-11-11 16:23:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: not seen on the chart2010-11-11 16:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer and stronger line is the preferred 2010-11-11 16:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes2010-11-11 16:23:38 [Message] doc -> Chat: agree2010-11-11 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term2010-11-11 16:24:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need to see if the NYSE breadth MCO will once again hold the -25 level2010-11-11 16:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and change this snapback idea to that of a more prolonged correctional period2010-11-11 16:24:40 [Message] doc -> Chat: what do you make of the drop below zero, snapback to zero and than down even further today?2010-11-11 16:25:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: and only a simple pattern with no texture above zero this go around2010-11-11 16:26:23 [Message] doc -> Chat: and to my ruler on the monitor, the mco did break the uptrend line by just a bit.2010-11-11 16:26:47 [Message] doc -> Chat: only about 3-4 points though2010-11-11 16:27:10 [Message] doc -> Chat: what do you think Lew?2010-11-11 16:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know if splitting hairs is helpful on a trendline break 2010-11-11 16:27:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm with you, Doc2010-11-11 16:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...remember that two weeks ago we also broke below the rising trendline on the MCO2010-11-11 16:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not an exact science here, but we do the best we can2010-11-11 16:28:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: true, what about the patterns i mentioned above though2010-11-11 16:28:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the back testing bothers me most for the bullish case, Doc2010-11-11 16:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what do I think?2010-11-11 16:28:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: what do you make of the drop below zero, snapback to zero and than down even further today?2010-11-11 16:29:11 [Message] doc -> Chat: and only a simple pattern with no texture above zero this go around2010-11-11 16:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think that it could be a bearish sign....especially with the way the MCSUM is acting here2010-11-11 16:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it could be a cycle low2010-11-11 16:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be part of the snapback2010-11-11 16:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be a pause to refresh2010-11-11 16:29:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: there is a 2.5cycle low due Friday or Monday2010-11-11 16:29:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at October2010-11-11 16:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did we not do the very same thing?2010-11-11 16:29:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thks Doc-great to know2010-11-11 16:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: broke below the zero line2010-11-11 16:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapped back2010-11-11 16:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then tested the -25 level before moving back above zero2010-11-11 16:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: context2010-11-11 16:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: perspective2010-11-11 16:30:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: okay another quick question2010-11-11 16:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO measures the rate speed in which two EMA's are moving either to or towards each other2010-11-11 16:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be unreasonable to look for the market to constantly keeping its foot on the accelerator2010-11-11 16:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will have to lift that foot from time to time just to avoid cramping2010-11-11 16:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be different this time2010-11-11 16:31:58 [Message] doc -> Chat: The divergent low of July was broken in August and nothing happened. Is it now still important to stay above one of those mco lows and if so which one?2010-11-11 16:32:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lord knows we've been talking about a rest for over 2 months now2010-11-11 16:32:36 [Message] doc -> Chat: talking only about the mco here2010-11-11 16:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking2010-11-11 16:33:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: July -53. August -67 and change2010-11-11 16:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that only the NYSE CO and composite broke below the July lows2010-11-11 16:34:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes, maybe that was the hook2010-11-11 16:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would still be looking at the divergent lows of July...2010-11-11 16:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more to the point2010-11-11 16:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be looking to see HOW we break down here2010-11-11 16:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will it be quick and neat or with texture?2010-11-11 16:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest2010-11-11 16:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're dealing with a whole different animal right now than what we've had to work with in the past2010-11-11 16:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there is a tremendous amount of liquidity that is messing things up as to any complexity we will see going forward2010-11-11 16:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm being very flexible here2010-11-11 16:36:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and watching the pulse as it directly relates to the chart action2010-11-11 16:36:14 [Message] doc -> Chat: I think that Darris has some info on this that a 5:1 negative breadth day tomor would take the mco to -55 and break the July divergent lows2010-11-11 16:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I'll take his word for it2010-11-11 16:36:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: by a hair split2010-11-11 16:36:50 [Message] darris -> Chat: That is correct 500/2500 put into the formula for tomorrow will yield -55 mco2010-11-11 16:37:08 [Message] doc -> Chat: not saying that it's going to happen2010-11-11 16:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...well we'll have to cross that bridge if we get to it2010-11-11 16:37:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: just being aware is useful info2010-11-11 16:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you for that2010-11-11 16:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no change for the MCO on Friday would be a +1062010-11-11 16:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback for Friday is +13182010-11-11 16:38:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for the bulls, the EMA's are against them now2010-11-11 16:38:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: are you more worried tomor if we simply break -252010-11-11 16:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems that it wouldn't take as much as 5:1 negative to get there...but it is what it is2010-11-11 16:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not worried2010-11-11 16:39:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know many are worried but I don't know why at this juncture2010-11-11 16:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every little fracture is causing a large amount of angst here2010-11-11 16:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it happens...we'll deal with it2010-11-11 16:39:58 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Can this be a wave 4 started. Some stories about sovereign debt troubles in Europe resurfaced this week. E.g. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6AA212201011112010-11-11 16:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds, however, suggest that we are not in a position to really worry about it as yet2010-11-11 16:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was one of the ideas from last week Tonny2010-11-11 16:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that wave 3 had topped2010-11-11 16:40:47 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: The sovereign debt issues in Europe was what got us down in May I believe.2010-11-11 16:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the closing of the gap in the NASDAQ2010-11-11 16:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem to be a good idea for now2010-11-11 16:41:47 [Message] doc -> Chat: Well I'm open to adding longs on a dip into Monday, but I'd like to see the mco back above zero and the mcsum to break the second gap resistance. Tight stops as you suggested are in order though.2010-11-11 16:41:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: structurally, however, I wouldn't expect too much more 2010-11-11 16:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this market is clearly "overbought" on several levels2010-11-11 16:42:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also continues to maintain a wall of worry2010-11-11 16:42:36 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: What would be the minimum retracement of a wave 4?2010-11-11 16:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would not discount this2010-11-11 16:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: .236 then .3822010-11-11 16:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it really depends, though, on the degree of trend2010-11-11 16:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do know is that we continue to be in a third wave structure of one degree or the other2010-11-11 16:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we break...2010-11-11 16:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's say the -25 level on the MCO2010-11-11 16:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain in this third wave structure2010-11-11 16:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would watch the rhythm of the market 2010-11-11 16:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's pulse2010-11-11 16:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it's tired2010-11-11 16:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it would like a rest2010-11-11 16:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like a addict on crystal meth2010-11-11 16:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will it be able to?2010-11-11 16:44:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is the question at hand2010-11-11 16:44:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or will it get another fix2010-11-11 16:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FED continues to manufacture the meth2010-11-11 16:45:22 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: 2010-11-11 16:45:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sadly2010-11-11 16:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and ALL of the financial classes are snorting away2010-11-11 16:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both here and abroad2010-11-11 16:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the emerging markets!2010-11-11 16:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at gold!2010-11-11 16:46:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SILVER!2010-11-11 16:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we see some sort of rest in the metals2010-11-11 16:46:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly unlikely that we're not going to see any kind of correction in the US markets2010-11-11 16:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that has been the rhythm of the last few months2010-11-11 16:47:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like a meth addict when his supply runs out2010-11-11 16:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can be sure the markets will also crash2010-11-11 16:47:24 [Message] darris -> Chat: 38% retracement on the spx is 1140 ish, and 24% 1175.2010-11-11 16:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until then2010-11-11 16:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just can't see a retracement below 1195 for now2010-11-11 16:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price structure is just too strong2010-11-11 16:48:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would take something major to change this abruptly2010-11-11 16:48:34 [Message] darris -> Chat: The Euro has been discounted for the Europena soverign debt issues in the head lines. 650 pips worth from recent high to low. This occurred at the Jan 2010 high before the spx dropped 10%2010-11-11 16:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and each and every price structure is as unique as the other2010-11-11 16:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: granted...we don't discount this kind of action2010-11-11 16:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's nice information2010-11-11 16:49:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it didn't do much today when the Euro crashed over night, did it?2010-11-11 16:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all this talk of a collapse last night...and nothing2010-11-11 16:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact2010-11-11 16:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold was up today, as well as, the dollar2010-11-11 16:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember we talked about resistance at the previous highs was probably all we were going to see?2010-11-11 16:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we closed there today2010-11-11 16:51:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but intraday...we had a sharp reversal right at those highs2010-11-11 16:51:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: worry...worry..worry...so much worry2010-11-11 16:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next we'll start hearing about a dollar carry trade2010-11-11 16:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you watch2010-11-11 16:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before that it was "currency wars"2010-11-11 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still2010-11-11 16:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have broken above the April highs by and large2010-11-11 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all we've done is seen our obligatory snapback to that same line 2010-11-11 16:52:51 [Message] darris -> Chat: That is why I pointed out what happened leading into the Jan 2010 correction. the Euro decline was already in full force. The point is to be Alert on what ever you are trading just in case. Every day a few weeks ago the spx was moving opposite the Dollar, and then last Friday it stopped. Currencies may or may not have any immediate bearing on equities. The Dollar or Euro moves with metals sometimes, but this move up this week was not consistent with the Dollar rising.2010-11-11 16:53:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no, it wasn't 2010-11-11 16:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means2010-11-11 16:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess2010-11-11 16:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that all this talk about inversion would also be something to be alert about...but it doesn't always happen2010-11-11 16:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold and the dollar up today2010-11-11 16:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how can that be? 2010-11-11 16:54:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: problems in Europe suit both2010-11-11 16:54:54 [Message] darris -> Chat: Unless you are trading every commodity and equities all at the same time you really do not have to worry about anything else other than what YOUR current exposure is. the rest is a distraction by the CNBC cheer leaders2010-11-11 16:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you2010-11-11 16:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and money flow knows everything we know...and more2010-11-11 16:55:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it moves in bigger amounts2010-11-11 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me upload a combo chart for a second2010-11-11 16:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/goldcombo.png2010-11-11 16:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only currency that isn't devaluating right now is the good old Swiss Franc2010-11-11 16:58:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...any threats of war will NOT solve the problems2010-11-11 16:59:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problems lie with all of the Reserve Banks2010-11-11 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they are just as guilty when it comes to making their currency cheaper so that their assets will seem to grow in value2010-11-11 16:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all media rubbish2010-11-11 16:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pay no mind2010-11-11 17:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the media is always looking for excuses so that they can keep their...ummm...superiority (?) 2010-11-11 17:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the right word...2010-11-11 17:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch money2010-11-11 17:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will tell us when things are not going well2010-11-11 17:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there will always be something to talk about2010-11-11 17:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe it's because I've heard all of this garbage before2010-11-11 17:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shrug2010-11-11 17:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being around these vipers for 40 years and you tend to hear the same things you've heard before2010-11-11 17:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the pretty much the same outcomes2010-11-11 17:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the markets duty to keep everyone from fully capitalizing on the trend2010-11-11 17:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where or how this money comes from is secondary to the the fact that it's there for fuel2010-11-11 17:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day...it will come back to bite us2010-11-11 17:03:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until that day...we take it day by day2010-11-11 17:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who really know me2010-11-11 17:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am usually the very first to share when things are starting to change (or I like to think so)2010-11-11 17:04:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and usually2010-11-11 17:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when I notice these things2010-11-11 17:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I get many disbelievers2010-11-11 17:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the way it goes2010-11-11 17:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now2010-11-11 17:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I see nothing to disturb the uptrend2010-11-11 17:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price does not lead breadth2010-11-11 17:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth leads price2010-11-11 17:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will exit well before we make an important turn (look at Muni's)2010-11-11 17:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has before...and more than likely...it will again2010-11-11 17:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: faith2010-11-11 17:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: personally...I either laugh or curse what I hear on the business channels2010-11-11 17:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and lately...it's like...I don't know where these people get their credentials to spew out the amount of garbage I keep hearing2010-11-11 17:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you see how the full court press this week on how the FED is so evil with this repurchase program?2010-11-11 17:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from the left....2010-11-11 17:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from the right2010-11-11 17:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nobody likes it2010-11-11 17:07:39 [Message] doc -> Chat: charts?2010-11-11 17:07:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not saying its a good thing2010-11-11 17:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: charts? 2010-11-11 17:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what charts?2010-11-11 17:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol2010-11-11 17:07:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: lol2010-11-11 17:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK....I get the message2010-11-11 17:08:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: we don't need no stinking charts2010-11-11 17:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will shut up now2010-11-11 17:08:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: lol 2010-11-11 17:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no more philosophical talk2010-11-11 17:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry2010-11-11 17:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line2010-11-11 17:08:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: np2010-11-11 17:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone PLEASE take a deep breath here2010-11-11 17:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the amount of anxiety over the last two months has been unprecedented2010-11-11 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I realize all your concerns2010-11-11 17:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I FEEL all of your concerns2010-11-11 17:09:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we must remain neutral here2010-11-11 17:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the internals start to breakdown2010-11-11 17:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can worry2010-11-11 17:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until then2010-11-11 17:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's something to acknowledge...but we can't trade on it2010-11-11 17:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I'm moving on now2010-11-11 17:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: btw2010-11-11 17:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the dollar2010-11-11 17:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's do or die for the bulls...right here...right now2010-11-11 17:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they don't hold these levels2010-11-11 17:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next stop will be 722010-11-11 17:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Lew2010-11-11 17:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: irregular flat close to completion on the Dollar 2010-11-11 17:11:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, does look like2010-11-11 17:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more importantly2010-11-11 17:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it FEELS like it2010-11-11 17:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the news2010-11-11 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the EURO, etc.2010-11-11 17:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's what I've learned over the years2010-11-11 17:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: changes in the direction in the majority of trends are done with a whimper and not with a blast2010-11-11 17:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving back above the zero line on Wednesday2010-11-11 17:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO moved to lower lows today2010-11-11 17:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this continues to occur right as the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is right up against the magical +500 level2010-11-11 17:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO components remain above zero 2010-11-11 17:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're still in a correction in an uptrend 2010-11-11 17:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even if we sell off tomorrow2010-11-11 17:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely2010-11-11 17:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many of the MCO components will find support in and around their zero lines2010-11-11 17:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means2010-11-11 17:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll then see a day or two bounce2010-11-11 17:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that happens2010-11-11 17:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THEN we can make plans on how to possible make some money on that2010-11-11 17:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again2010-11-11 17:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind2010-11-11 17:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that even if we do continue to see the speed of the A/D trend continue to slow2010-11-11 17:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM's are high enough...the distance between the 19 and 39 day EMA's... are still wide enough that we're likely not to see too much in the way of price deterioration2010-11-11 17:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just not a reasonable expectation2010-11-11 17:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at today2010-11-11 17:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: terrible open2010-11-11 17:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ down...what...45 points?2010-11-11 17:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we close down 232010-11-11 17:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and much of the decline...as was the expectation...took place in the first 1/2 hour2010-11-11 17:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hit and run2010-11-11 17:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take a while before a trending move to the downside can even be considered2010-11-11 17:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the only quirk being2010-11-11 17:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: somebody making another keystroke error2010-11-11 17:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as technicians...we can't anticipate that2010-11-11 17:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we shouldn't in the future either2010-11-11 17:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like they say..."stuff happens" from time to time2010-11-11 17:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shrug2010-11-11 17:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are you aware that the NDX is 6% above its April highs now?2010-11-11 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many sellers do you think are out there now that we have moved above a point of resistance as we have?2010-11-11 17:20:07 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: At the time of the May 6 decline the NYSE Composite components were already well below the zero line. Could that not explain the sudden decline?2010-11-11 17:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a weakening effect2010-11-11 17:20:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's a good point2010-11-11 17:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact2010-11-11 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were already showing trend decay for a month before May decline took place2010-11-11 17:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not now2010-11-11 17:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these things take time to develop2010-11-11 17:21:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know how many times the market has proved this point to us in these chats2010-11-11 17:21:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: we are at a critical point here. look at the oex mco. right at the uptrend line, below last two lows in Oct and challenging the early October lows.2010-11-11 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway2010-11-11 17:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO is now back to its zero line again2010-11-11 17:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control2010-11-11 17:22:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: it better bounce tomor2010-11-11 17:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or?2010-11-11 17:22:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: another notch in the deterioration of the internals2010-11-11 17:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can say that everyday2010-11-11 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right?2010-11-11 17:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's always going to be deterioration after a thrust2010-11-11 17:23:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: sure. just analytical here. we are overdue for a breather. nice to see it come up with the tools we review, that's all.2010-11-11 17:23:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: maybe we can buy lower2010-11-11 17:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...but saying it "better"...well..we're really not a critical point here2010-11-11 17:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I bought today2010-11-11 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you see my Core's post?2010-11-11 17:24:23 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes, housing2010-11-11 17:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: surprised?2010-11-11 17:25:03 [Message] doc -> Chat: haven't really had a chance to look into it2010-11-11 17:25:15 [Message] doc -> Chat: what prompted you to allocate there?2010-11-11 17:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we "better" bounce tomorrow...why would I even chance it?2010-11-11 17:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2010-11-11 17:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the chart is very similar to the XLF2010-11-11 17:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the REIT A/D line looks constructive2010-11-11 17:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus2010-11-11 17:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one wants to own housing2010-11-11 17:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus2010-11-11 17:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm getting indications that the spring is going to see home price not only stabilize but rise2010-11-11 17:26:36 [Message] doc -> Chat: wasn't price leading REIT ad line?2010-11-11 17:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the sense of urgency to own becomes more widespread2010-11-11 17:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bit2010-11-11 17:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they're constructive2010-11-11 17:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not perfect2010-11-11 17:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm working under the assumption that those sectors that lagged the advance, will now see their turn 2010-11-11 17:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example2010-11-11 17:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: out of the defensive issues like we saw on Tuesday 2010-11-11 17:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is always looking for areas of undervaluation2010-11-11 17:28:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the financials and housing fit that bill2010-11-11 17:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...2010-11-11 17:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether or not I get a good return or not...that I'm not sure2010-11-11 17:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'll take 10%2010-11-11 17:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...at $16 a share2010-11-11 17:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is only 2 points2010-11-11 17:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better than less than 1% in cash2010-11-11 17:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/xhb111110.png2010-11-11 17:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bullish configuration on the EMA's2010-11-11 17:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: RSI remains above 50 meaning that the bulls are in control2010-11-11 17:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the ratio to the SPX...it broke out, snapped back...and now moving higher2010-11-11 17:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thorn comes with the ADX2010-11-11 17:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'll take the risk...with a tight stop2010-11-11 17:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: daily volume pattern is bullish2010-11-11 17:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rising on up days2010-11-11 17:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: decreasing on down days2010-11-11 17:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...we'll see how it goes2010-11-11 17:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I waited a little longer on this one just to be sure2010-11-11 17:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the action today suggested that we're going to see higher highs after the snapback to 162010-11-11 17:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe I'll get a test of the April highs?2010-11-11 17:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shrug2010-11-11 17:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward2010-11-11 17:33:11 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: It did not get all the way back to 16 yet. 2010-11-11 17:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO is dead neutral right now2010-11-11 17:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rule is...2010-11-11 17:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a snapback is either to OR towards the line of the breakout2010-11-11 17:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you always will see me say this2010-11-11 17:34:03 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK 2010-11-11 17:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether it gets there, or close to, or beyond, is fully dependent on the internals of the market2010-11-11 17:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are they friendly or hostile2010-11-11 17:34:19 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: How do you know which one it is?2010-11-11 17:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now, they remain friendly2010-11-11 17:34:41 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: friendly or hostile?2010-11-11 17:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh - easy peasy2010-11-11 17:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's the internals...being either above or below MCSUM zero line2010-11-11 17:35:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's a price pattern2010-11-11 17:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it strictly depends on daily volume flows2010-11-11 17:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: never make this any more difficult than it is2010-11-11 17:35:50 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK, I see Thanks!2010-11-11 17:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problems today is that we have too much information to work with2010-11-11 17:36:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: FWIW, the SPX mcsum is stuck at the top of the summation gap resistance. funny how the market moves.2010-11-11 17:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it can confuse us as technicians2010-11-11 17:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which one is better...etc.2010-11-11 17:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it always is amazing ow that happens, isn't it Doc?2010-11-11 17:36:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes2010-11-11 17:36:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also are moving sideways just below the +1000 level2010-11-11 17:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which one is more important?2010-11-11 17:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the answer...they both are2010-11-11 17:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one is based on one set of ideas2010-11-11 17:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other on the nuance of the tool itself2010-11-11 17:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we break down here2010-11-11 17:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where do you think we should see our first support in the SPX breadth MCSUM?2010-11-11 17:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep it simple2010-11-11 17:38:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: let me look2010-11-11 17:38:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where was our prior support??2010-11-11 17:39:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: I'm on a 3 year of oex2010-11-11 17:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look closer 2010-11-11 17:39:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: 7502010-11-11 17:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why?2010-11-11 17:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you don't have to list them all2010-11-11 17:39:51 [Message] doc -> Chat: prev resistance earlier2010-11-11 17:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and snapback support - there you go2010-11-11 17:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: simple2010-11-11 17:39:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: rule of 250s2010-11-11 17:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go (I like that)2010-11-11 17:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until we break below this level2010-11-11 17:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's to worry?2010-11-11 17:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll worry when we get there2010-11-11 17:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM as high as it is right now2010-11-11 17:40:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: the market is in a default bear market, you should always worry2010-11-11 17:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any intraday decline is highly likely to be absorbed2010-11-11 17:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is2010-11-11 17:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when the bear is drowning in the lake2010-11-11 17:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the lake recedes2010-11-11 17:41:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bear is either a good swimmer, or he'll drown2010-11-11 17:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again2010-11-11 17:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I ask everyone to take a simple look at this and apply a 19 day and 39 day EMA to any price chart2010-11-11 17:42:13 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: the 750 level on OEX MCSUM is also where the trendline of the rising bottoms sit2010-11-11 17:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you've done this long enough2010-11-11 17:42:39 [Message] doc -> Chat: and check out the mco tonny2010-11-11 17:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know that the price action will tend to trend in the path of least resistance until these two EMA's move close together2010-11-11 17:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes2010-11-11 17:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX and OEX have been joined at the hip for some time now2010-11-11 17:43:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market IS in sync here2010-11-11 17:43:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: subtle differences2010-11-11 17:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is another reason why that the bears have a lot of work to do here just to break these lines of defense by the bulls2010-11-11 17:43:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: the oex mco has broken below the late oct lows2010-11-11 17:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it has2010-11-11 17:44:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nas 5 and 10 don't look that safe to me, twt2010-11-11 17:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it could be problematic because of the nice looking double top price structure2010-11-11 17:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Dow breadth MCO is testing its October lows now2010-11-11 17:44:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind2010-11-11 17:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that during strongly trending moves2010-11-11 17:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need is minimal extremes to provide a bottom2010-11-11 17:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like in October2010-11-11 17:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like the +250 and -250 levels in the MCSUM2010-11-11 17:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll just have to see if the snapback holds or not2010-11-11 17:46:10 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes but the long term uptrend line is clearly broken2010-11-11 17:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know by Tuesday2010-11-11 17:46:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes2010-11-11 17:46:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the level of the Dow breadth MCSUM is...2010-11-11 17:46:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: nosebleed2010-11-11 17:46:57 [Message] doc -> Chat: peaked and turning down like the April top2010-11-11 17:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what happened to the XLU price pattern (as a recent example) after it started to decline from its nosebleed territory?2010-11-11 17:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2010-11-11 17:47:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wish we can put that April top behind us2010-11-11 17:47:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can't even compare the two2010-11-11 17:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the MCO 2010-11-11 17:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can you really compare the two periods (April and now)?2010-11-11 17:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MID price pattern looks like its about to breakout to the upside2010-11-11 17:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback complete2010-11-11 17:49:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: On all these mco charts, there is one unifying theme that suggests a degree of caution. That is the very simple and short lived pattern above the zero line this go around.2010-11-11 17:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line test on the MID breadth MCO2010-11-11 17:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have a better caution2010-11-11 17:50:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't like the way we broke out to new highs last week...just to see an equal and opposite effect this week2010-11-11 17:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I still don't have a sell here2010-11-11 17:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's another "shot" if anything2010-11-11 17:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm fully aware of what you're sharing here2010-11-11 17:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we get a sell2010-11-11 17:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just something to respect...but not fixate on in anticipation that this time will, indeed, be different2010-11-11 17:51:21 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: What did you not like about the break out last week? Sorry, did not get that2010-11-11 17:51:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the Dow breadth MCO2010-11-11 17:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw a contracting back and forth movement in the MCO within the zero line for 2-3 weeks2010-11-11 17:52:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the breakout from this congestion period should have seen good follow through with fresh money2010-11-11 17:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we didn't get that2010-11-11 17:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we did get was an equal an opposite move which basically nullifies this breakout2010-11-11 17:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...granted2010-11-11 17:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CSCO is in the Dow2010-11-11 17:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (why it is makes no sense to me...but it is what it is)2010-11-11 17:53:20 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Thanks 2010-11-11 17:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this could put on thumb on the data2010-11-11 17:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is why it's important that we look at the broadest range to work with2010-11-11 17:53:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: but you see the same simple mco structure in all of the charts, not only the dow2010-11-11 17:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we do that2010-11-11 17:54:04 [Message] darris -> Chat: Cisco in the Dow because GM or one of the banks in the 2008 crash had to be taken out. 2010-11-11 17:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the Dow moved above the October highs2010-11-11 17:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCO only tested those highs2010-11-11 17:54:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: april highs2010-11-11 17:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and has not broken below the previous range...it's a matter of amplitude2010-11-11 17:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...2010-11-11 17:54:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but why a NASDAQ stock?2010-11-11 17:54:48 [Message] doc -> Chat: spx broke above2010-11-11 17:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tell me2010-11-11 17:54:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what have any of the NASDAQ stocks done for the Dow over the last 10 years?2010-11-11 17:55:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing2010-11-11 17:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero2010-11-11 17:55:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: NASDAQ also broke above that day2010-11-11 17:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they just trend sideways to down2010-11-11 17:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sigh2010-11-11 17:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: play it the way you want2010-11-11 17:55:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: aapl would be "a bit" different than csco, lol2010-11-11 17:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have no sell signals here2010-11-11 17:56:05 [Message] doc -> Chat: All I'm saying is that the concern you shared with us for the dow applies to the nasdaq and spx breakout as well.2010-11-11 17:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...but AAPL IS the economy2010-11-11 17:56:15 [Message] doc -> Chat: It wasn't only csco2010-11-11 17:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I understand Doc2010-11-11 17:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term2010-11-11 17:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just watch the -25 level on the TM and the RA data2010-11-11 17:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we break2010-11-11 17:57:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll then see a snapback to the zero line2010-11-11 17:57:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we break2010-11-11 17:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that might mean something to the price action2010-11-11 17:57:48 [Message] doc -> Chat: or its just the Hurst 2.5 wk low2010-11-11 17:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now...it's a hold2010-11-11 17:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whatever2010-11-11 17:57:55 [Message] doc -> Chat: lol 2010-11-11 17:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't care2010-11-11 17:58:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol2010-11-11 17:58:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah right2010-11-11 17:58:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going have fun going over this transcript tomorrow 2010-11-11 17:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Dow volume Oscillators are now neutral2010-11-11 17:59:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's with the rest are neutral2010-11-11 17:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now getting close to neutral2010-11-11 17:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we're neutral...one side is about to take control2010-11-11 18:00:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that it's likely to see a bounce off the zero line first2010-11-11 18:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would suspect that we're going to have an up close tomorrow2010-11-11 18:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .892010-11-11 18:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .892010-11-11 18:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (yawn - neutral)2010-11-11 18:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 55 day SMA is in nosebleed territory2010-11-11 18:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher than April now2010-11-11 18:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.122010-11-11 18:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was over 2.00 earlier today2010-11-11 18:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...2010-11-11 18:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10, however, is at .942010-11-11 18:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice job!2010-11-11 18:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.072010-11-11 18:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .932010-11-11 18:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...2010-11-11 18:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not "overbought" anymore2010-11-11 18:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sentiment is skittish2010-11-11 18:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: smells like a bottom2010-11-11 18:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what do I know!?!?2010-11-11 18:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2010-11-11 18:03:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another day like today...and that would set a good floor2010-11-11 18:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now2010-11-11 18:04:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: Futures down for now2010-11-11 18:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best option is that we have finished a snapback to the previous breakout area2010-11-11 18:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have the futures really meant anything until Europe opens of late?2010-11-11 18:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember2010-11-11 18:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Europe holds the cards here2010-11-11 18:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our dollar so cheap2010-11-11 18:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're the buyers here2010-11-11 18:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until...they stop2010-11-11 18:05:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: Close to the lows of today already, FWIW2010-11-11 18:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good2010-11-11 18:05:09 [Message] darris -> Chat: Well we have the low side being taken care of this evening in the futures markets as we are 2 pts above the recent lows, or ES 1203.75 and that is about 1207 cash2010-11-11 18:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that should put a scare in2010-11-11 18:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see2010-11-11 18:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing...2010-11-11 18:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1207?2010-11-11 18:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a test2010-11-11 18:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of it is follow through with Asia2010-11-11 18:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how things look in the morning2010-11-11 18:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?2010-11-11 18:06:36 [Message] doc -> Chat: Thanks for the road map, Fib. Clearly laid out and reasonable. Let's see where the money flow leads from here.2010-11-11 18:06:44 [Message] darris -> Chat: It was mainly the Nikkei morning session close, but you are right to gauge what Europe does, as Asia is minor compared to Europe as far as ES moves go2010-11-11 18:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tonny...you need to get some sleep!2010-11-11 18:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also of note2010-11-11 18:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that China's economy seems to be picking up2010-11-11 18:07:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: Most of the real moves start 3-5AM CST2010-11-11 18:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it's getting its business from is debatable2010-11-11 18:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they are the engine here2010-11-11 18:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes2010-11-11 18:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1:00 on the Pacific coast is when I see things start to move...after the FTSE opens at midnight2010-11-11 18:08:15 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: sure 2010-11-11 18:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when do you sleep anyway?2010-11-11 18:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol2010-11-11 18:08:44 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: sure 2010-11-11 18:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what is it now...after 2?2010-11-11 18:08:58 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: It is 3 AM2010-11-11 18:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol2010-11-11 18:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...thanks for staying up with us!2010-11-11 18:09:19 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: My pleasure2010-11-11 18:09:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you only trade the US markets then?2010-11-11 18:09:33 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Yes2010-11-11 18:09:47 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I sleep late tomorrow2010-11-11 18:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...so you can sleep in the mornings...nice life!2010-11-11 18:09:57 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I work from home2010-11-11 18:10:12 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Not too busy2010-11-11 18:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...well...I appreciate your views from the other side of the pond...thanks2010-11-11 18:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sure we all do2010-11-11 18:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK....anything else?2010-11-11 18:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's see if we can make it through the weekend without getting broadsided2010-11-11 18:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend2010-11-11 18:11:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: you too 2010-11-11 18:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Tuesday2010-11-11 18:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night2010-11-11 18:11:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto2010-11-11 18:11:38 [Message] darris -> Chat: Have a good evening, and weekend. Thanks for the review tonight.

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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