This Internet Blog attempts to exhibit the most meaningful Sentiment Indicators that we believe affect the performance of the market in different time frames; most are Contrarian extremes suggesting that the majority has adopted a certain trend fully at the point at which it is about to reverse. Included are also comments about the Indicators and any other facts or ideas that are pertinent to market action. To Post comments, just click on "comments" and write away.

Monday, May 11, 2015

Just when I take my usual two week vacation - to the real Casinos in Lake Tahoe- the market starts to get frisky (aka Volatile). Last week saw three big down days, followed by the Invisible Hand huge rally on Friday. Longer term, the DJIA (30) has been on a tear for 3 1/2 years with nary a major correction. As a technical analyst I prefer to look at charts, rather than listen to talking heads disagreeing on what economic event caused the action. What we used to call looking at photos of the markets (before High Freqs started PhotoShopping them) now show a tightening or coil in the price ranges, although Bullishly breaking to new highs - even without the Fed (??).

As some of you readers know I have been writing a sentiment blog since 2004, based on the Indicators I studied for my Chartered Market Technician designation. After halting my journalistic efforts on the Examiner.com and Marina Times, I started popping the column up on Facebook. Kindly, none of my family and friends have complained or delisted me (defriended??), but I decided to stop Spamming everyone and encouraging interested persons to check out my Monday blog: http://mktsentiment.blogspot.com/, or even sign up for it. The column will resume after my return from vaca!

I've used it to try to boil down what I consider recent meaningful research (Barron's, Mauldin, et.al.), as well as the above Sentiment Indicators, such as put/call ratios, newsletter opinions, etc.
The extremes last week (not many from the prior week) were a Bullish reading from the AAII (Individual Investor) where - as you can see below- Bulls and Bears were tied. Margin interest hit new highs (low interest rates could be dangerous), while Futures Traders (COT) smart money is shorting Oil and gold, but long stocks (SPX).
Here are the numbers:

Date>

5/8/2015

5/1/2015

Indices:

DJIA

18191

18024

NAZ

5003

5005

SPX

2116

2108

WklyVolume (Bshs).

naz/ny….

9.8/3.9

10.0/4.3

Specul.Ratio
hi=bullish

2.51

2.33

Sentiment:

put/call-CBOE

65

66

VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8

12.9

12.7

Advance/Dec-NYSE..

1379/1851

1046/2180

Weekly Net:

-472

-1134

Cumulative:

167766

168238

Weekly

NYSE hi/low…

162/153

220/91

New Hi's/Low's

Nasdaq h/l

181/197

258/180

McClellan

Oscillator

-10

-27

McClellanSum

.+750/-1000

305

488

Newsletter

Inv.Intel -Bull

52.5

57.4

Surveys-Tues

Bear:-5yrs

13.9

13.9

Wed.

AAII
-Bull

27.1

30.8

Bear

26.8

22

COT:SPX w/w

large/small (net)k

10k/(26k)

11k/(17k)

COT:gold comm.hedg

long-short.000

(74k)

(107k)

COT:OIL comm.hedg

long-short.

(328k)

(320k)

US$-WSJ

85.3

85.8

CEOinsider

selling

40:1

NA

off.&bd b/s.vs.

10% holder b/s

.160/40

.160/40

3-box rev

Bullish%-

65

68

US equity -ICI

Fund Flows

WeekDelay

(7.3B)

MMF flows

Change in $B

8.6B

(5.9B)

MargDebt- top (300M)

monthly

MARCH

476Bnh

ETF:mthlyEqty/

Int'l/Bond-$B

MARCH

1268/472/318

2-yr
Tsy Yield: Inflation

0.58%

0.60%

TIP (ETF)

Inflation

113.25

113.89

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