N.B.A. Game of the Week: Warriors at Cavaliers

Every week, The New York Times will choose one essential game to watch, highlighting hot teams, winning and losing streaks and statistical intrigue in the N.B.A.

Golden State at Cleveland, Monday, 8 p.m. Eastern, TNT

The Cleveland Cavaliers traveled to San Antonio on Thursday to take on the Spurs and almost came away with a win. After the first quarter, they had a promising 32-20 lead. But the Spurs, who have an 11-game winning streak through Sunday, opened the fourth quarter with a 13-2 run to take an 85-77 lead, going on to win, 99-95.

Nevertheless, Cleveland has to feel pretty good about its progress. The loss to the Spurs was its only defeat during a six-game trip, and the Cavaliers have won nine of their last 10 games through Sunday. In those 10 games, Cleveland has the best net rating in the league (a combination of offensive and defensive efficiency) behind the Spurs and the Los Angeles Clippers, almost all against less impressive opponents. (The Clippers have also won nine of their last 10 games through Sunday.)

Since Kyrie Irving returned, things are clicking in Cleveland, and it is hard to imagine that any team in the Eastern Conference could prevent the Cavaliers from returning to the N.B.A. finals.

The Cavaliers, the Spurs and the Golden State Warriors are widely considered the most likely title contenders. And despite Golden State’s record start (the team started the season with 24 straight wins), the Warriors have been a touch worse than the other two teams in their last 1o games through Sunday.

In those games, the Warriors did not rank within the top 10 in defensive efficiency, even though the team once had the top-ranked defense in the league. It would be easy to blame injuries, which have hampered Golden State. Stephen Curry has been struggling with a shin contusion, and he has donned soccer-style shin guards instead of sitting for the four weeks that the team’s medical staff said the bruise needed to heal. Harrison Barnes sat out a month with an ankle sprain, and Festus Ezeli and Leandro Barbosa also recently returned from injuries.

But the Warriors have looked vulnerable, even with a full roster. Against a bad Denver Nuggets team on Wednesday, Golden State had a heap of trouble on defense, letting mediocre players like Darrell Arthur, Will Barton and Gary Harris rack up double-digit points against them. They also sent the Nuggets star Danilo Gallinari to the line far too often, where he made 17 of 19 free throws. The Warriors were outrebounded, 49-39, and allowed Denver to grab 13 offensive rebounds, opportunities that the Nuggets did not waste. And Curry had eight turnovers, including an error late in the game that allowed Denver to get away with a win.

At times this season, the Warriors have felt less cohesive than in 2014-15: Even as the star power of players like Curry and Draymond Green has increased, the team has sometimes seemed to rely more on highlight-reel heroics than on chemistry. That may have something to do with injuries, but it might also be related to the absence of Coach Steve Kerr, who has been missing from the sideline the entire season. Kerr is now traveling with the team, which suggests that he may return soon; that might help the Warriors double down on the defensive end.

And yet, it is foolish to worry too much over Golden State, which has still lost only four games, although Saturday’s 113-95 loss to the Detroit Pistons was Golden State’s second defeat in three games. Still, the Warriors have shown no decline on the offensive end. Their shooting in January has been nearly as good as in any other month this season, and it is still the best scoring team in the league. The team’s turnover problems remain worrying, but there is no substantial difference between this squad and last season’s championship team.

Except, that is, for its improving competitors. Skeptics of the Warriors’ success over the past few seasons have relied on an old idea, that shooting alone cannot win championships. Golden State proved that wrong in thrilling fashion in June. But the Warriors have always felt like a high-flying act, one perhaps a touch less reliable than the inside-outside attacks of Cleveland and San Antonio.

The Warriors do not face the Spurs, the team most would peg as Golden State’s most serious competition, until Jan. 25. But the Cavaliers, having just lost so narrowly in San Antonio, serve as an excellent proxy to test Golden State. At the start of the season, it was impossible to imagine a team better than these Warriors. But a loss in Cleveland on Monday night might suggest that, as of now, they are not even the second best team in the league.