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Wisconsin Exit Poll Highlights

10:03 p.m. | Updated The Times’s polling unit is parsing the exit polls in Wisconsin, looking for clues about the electorate and suggestions of what the recall results might portend for November. This post will be updated as we crunch more numbers.

Generic Support for Recall Efforts
While turnout has been reported to be high, a majority of voters on Tuesday may not have been entirely supportive of the recall election at all. Nearly 6 in 10 Wisconsin voters said that recall elections were appropriate only for official misconduct, and another 1 in 10 said they were never appropriate, according to early exit poll results. About 3 in 10 voters said recall elections were appropriate for any reason.

Those who support recall elections for any reason overwhelmingly expressed support for Tom Barrett, while those who said recalls were never appropriate backed Gov. Scott Walker. Among those who said official misconduct was appropriate to prompt a recall, about two-thirds supported Mr. Walker, while nearly a third supported Mr. Barrett.

Democrats, younger voters, union households and those with post-graduate degrees were more likely to say that recalls are appropriate for any reason; Republicans, Tea Party supporters and those who approved of Mr. Walker’s handling of collective bargaining were more likely to say recalls should be held only for official misconduct. —Allison Kopicki

Opposition to Tea Party and Government

Voters in Tuesday’s recall election are somewhat more opposed to the Tea Party movement than voters in 2010 were, but most nonetheless say, as in 2010, that government “is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.”

Nearly 4 in 10 voters in preliminary exit polls say they support the Tea Party movement, about as many oppose it, and a quarter are neutral. While support for the political movement has held steady from two years ago, opposition is up somewhat from 2010, according to these results.

But voters’ antipathy toward increased government involvement in 2010 is echoed in Tuesday’s results. Two years ago, 41 percent said government “should do more to solve problems,” while 56 percent said it was doing too many things better left to others. Voters on Tuesday felt similarly. —Dalia Sussman

Did Money Talk?

The millions of dollars spent in recent weeks by both political parties for advertising, campaign signs and get-out-the-vote efforts may not actually have changed anyone’s mind about whom to vote for in Tuesday’s recall election.

According to early results from surveys of voters leaving the polls on Tuesday, nearly 9 out of 10 Wisconsin voters said their minds were made up about whom to vote for before May 1. Whether all that money results in larger turnout for either of the candidates remains to be seen until vote counts are in after the polls close.

Most Wisconsin voters indicated that they were satisfied with their respective candidates on Tuesday. Nearly three-quarters of voters said their vote on Tuesday was cast mainly for their candidate. About a quarter said their vote was mainly against their candidate’s opponent.

But the extra campaign in the middle of an election year has done little to sway anyone’s thoughts about the two political parties. Half of voters said they had an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, and half said the same about the Republican Party – sentiments that are relatively unchanged from two years ago, according to the 2010 exit poll results. —Allison Kopicki

Labor Turnout Up Early

Preliminary exit poll results indicate an uptick in turnout among voters from union households – something Democrats were hoping for in their effort to oust Gov. Scott Walker on Tuesday.

But whether that holds as voters continue to head to the polls, and whether it is enough to give Mayor Tom Barrett of Milwaukee the edge, are open questions at this point.

About a third of voters in preliminary exit poll results say they or someone in their household belong to a labor union. That is an increase from 2010 and 2008, when 26 percent of voters in each of those elections were from a union household.

High union turnout is crucial for the Democrats. In 2010, 63 percent of voters in union households supported Mr. Barrett, compared with 37 percent for Mr. Walker.

On the issue that has the unions fired up – the changes in state law that limited collective bargaining rights for most of the state’s public workers – voters are closely divided, with about as many approving of it as disapproving. Voters in Tuesday’s recall election are also closely split in their views of how Mr. Walker handled the issue.

Voters, however, are somewhat more apt to express a favorable opinion of unions for government workers than an unfavorable one. —Dalia Sussman

Voters Would Re-Elect Obama

Wisconsin voters who turned out for the recall election on Tuesday said they would vote to re-elect President Obama to the White House if the voting were taking place today, according to early exit poll results.

Mr. Obama also bested his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, on the question of who would do a better job of improving the economy.

And Mr. Obama did better among the Wisconsin voters on the question of who would do a better job of helping the middle class, according to the survey.

The early exit poll results suggest that the electorate that turned out on Tuesday may be more like the one that showed up in 2008, when Mr. Obama won the state over Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona.

But the fact that Wisconsin voters tilted toward Mr. Obama does not necessarily mean that Tom Barrett will emerge victorious. Polling in recent weeks has shown Gov. Scott Walker leading even as voters said they preferred keeping Mr. Obama in office.

That may reflect a queasiness with recall elections. A large majority of the voters who turned out on Tuesday said recall elections are only appropriate when incumbents are accused of official misconduct. —Michael D. Shear

Few Voters Say Finances Have Improved

As voters exited the polls in Wisconsin on Tuesday, only about 2 in 10 said their family’s financial situation had improved since two years ago, when Gov. Scott Walker was elected.

Nearly 4 in 10 said their situation had grown worse, and more than 4 in 10 said their finances had stayed the same.

While Wisconsin’s unemployment level is lower than the national rate and median income is slightly above the national level, the Badger State has experienced its share of recession woes.

In April, one out of every 547 housing units was in foreclosure in Wisconsin, giving it the 10th highest foreclosure rate in the country, according to RealtyTrac, a company that tracks foreclosures. The state ranked 18th in personal bankruptcies in 2011, according to data from the American Bankruptcy Institute.

Nearly 3 in 10 younger voters said that they were better off, compared with about one in eight voters over the age of 45. Not surprisingly, more high-income voters were positive about their finances: about 3 in 10 voters making more than $100,000 said their situations had improved, compared with about one in 10 among those making less than $50,000. —Allison Kopicki

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