In doing some research (some being the operative term) of the Detroit Tigers’ leap from 72 wins one year to the World Series the next, I remembered that one of the key players in that leap was a centerfielder who did not get a shot at regular playing time until he was twenty-five years old.

Curtis Granderson had methodically worked his way up the minor league ladder after being drafted by the Tigers in 2002. A short season in A ball, followed by 127 games in High A, then 123 in AA and another 111 in AAA as a 24 year old. He got into 47 big league games in 2005, hitting .272/.314/.494 with 43 strikeouts in 174 plate appearances. The strikeouts were no surprise, as Granderson had fanned 129 times in his 111 AAA games and over 90 times in both his High A and AA seasons. By the way, Granderson had also raked in the minors, posted a career line of .300/.382/.494 in 413 minor league contests.

Although he was not quite a rookie in 2006, Curtis was basically a first year player when he played 159 games in 2006. Sure, he led the league in strikeouts (174), but Granderson also hit 19 home runs, 31 doubles and 9 triples. His OPS+ was bascially a league average 98 and, as we all know, he would explode in 2007: hitting 38 doubles, 23 triples, 23 home runs and stealing 26 bases (in 27 attempts).

Okay, Lorenzo Cain is not going to be Curtis Granderson.

That said, they do have some historical similarities. Cain will turn 26 next April and, like Granderson, will not be considered ‘young’ should he get his first shot at regular playing time. Like Granderson, the Royals’ centerfielder in waiting has received a moderate amount of major league seasoning, hitting .302/.343/.402 in 181 major league plate appearances, with 32 strikeouts. Like Granderson, Lorenzo has raked in the minors: .295/.368/.430 in 712 minor league games and struck out a lot (575 times in 3,107 plate appearances). Without question, Lorenzo Cain is not going to exhibit the type of power that Granderson does. In essence, Cain’s upside may be as a ‘poor man’s Curtis Granderson’, which is not a bad thing at all.

This little snippet is not really to advocate ditching Melky Cabrera in favor of Cain or to persuade anyone that Cain is going to be an All-Star like Granderson. It simply points out that not every player has to come up at age 22 to have potential and not every high strikeout centerfielder is destined for major league failure. More than anything, I just thought the similarities in age and track record were worth noting.

xxx

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Take a look at Austin Jackson as a comp. It’s pretty interesting how similar they are. Jackson is about 10 months younger, but their minor league statistics are awfully close. They’ll both pop you the occasional homer, steal some bases, strike out a ton and play very good defense. I think there’s more power for Cain to grow into as he’s a little bit bigger, but I see some big time comparable skills there.

Good comparison…
Since Cain would replace Melky’s quality contribution, Cain might not have as big an impact on team success as Granderson did.
But Cain might have some intangibles – my occasionally look at Omaha’s roster in 2011 made me think their season-long success was on Cain’s back. Moose and Hoz left early, CRob leveled off and got injured at playoff time, Gio left late in the season. Cain might have that quality that makes those around him better like a good point guard in basketball.

Written by Christian about 4 years ago.

@ DanL-Very good point made and I think that says a lot about the character of Cain as being a winner and leader which this team is looking for in a player not only to be good but to make those around him better, I love Mitch Maier but I think Cain will be a huge upgrade and give us an even better outfield next year with the 3 vets and Cain coming along. Most kinda overlook it but i think our success is due to leadership that the Royals teams of the past havnt had since the 80’s Go Royals 2012 because this will be the last year the Royals and their talent will be under the radar still so take the AL by surprise !!!

Written by jim fetterolf about 4 years ago.

“Okay, Lorenzo Cain is not going to be Curtis Granderson.”

But may be better or may be worse. Cain has possibilities and is followed in the system by other good, and younger prospects, so I think either he or Melky gets traded this winter. Depends on who brings a better return. Cain’s range will play better at the K but Melky’s offensive production will be tough to replace. I don’t see the Royals bringing Cain up as a 4th OF, more likely Dyson with his better speed and defense, so if neither Melky nor Cain get traded, unlikely, Cain starts next year at Omaha again as insurance. There are teams with excess pitching that could use Melky, San Francisco and Oakland two obvious ones, so he’s most likely to be moved.

Written by Kyle about 4 years ago.

I definitely want to see Cain in CF to start the year. His range might save as many runs as we “lose” with Melky not in the lineup. Quotes, b/c I don’t think Melky can repeat his 2011 numbers. Cain has had an impressive minor league career, and has shown (in limited time) that he can handle MLB.

If the Royals can bring in 2 front of the rotation starters between trades and FA, this team will compete in 2012. The FA list is short, but there is some quality there. Who knows what the trade market can offer.

Written by jim fetterolf about 4 years ago.

What I hear on Cain is that, while fast, he doesn’t take good routes and has a Melky-esque arm. As for offense, Melky was amazingly consistent over the year, didn’t go more than two games without a hit, and is hitting his prime years. Cain was good at Omaha, but no Giavotella or Robinson with the bat.

As for SPs, we may pick up one from Oakland or SF, but it probably takes Butler and a couple of prospects to get anyone better than Master Chen or Paulino. I think best is to develop in-house. Hoch seems to get it, Duffy will be much better next year, if Paulino can keep the walks down he’s solid, and we have quite a bit of competition for the last two slots, even if Master Chen gets away. I would trade Melky and some second level prospects for Trevor Cahill, but not Monty or JaKKKKe or Dwyer, so I don’t think the deal gets done.

Written by Hassler about 4 years ago.

I hate that everyone is always so hot to trade Melky. Want to compete next year by trading best player next to Gordon. Or we could, oh I dont know…….keep him? Yeahhhhhh. Good Game.

Since Melky plays a position that we have a reasonable replacement for in Cain, and the fact Melky has trade value coming off a very strong season, he is the best trade piece for a quality starting pitcher.

Written by Clark Fosler about 4 years ago.

Jim – I believe early this year, the organization thought Cain could use some more time to refine his routes due to his relative late start in playing baseball. I don’t think his routes were necessarily bad, just inexperienced. Everything I have heard and seen since then leads me to believe that Cain is a well above average defensive centerfielder.

Written by kcghost about 4 years ago.

Hard to imagine Cain having as good a year as Melky just had but then it was real hard to believe Melky would have that kind of year either.

If Cain isn’t really good enough to be our CFer we will have come up on the short end of the Greinke trade: A SS who can’t hit (.633 career OPS), a CF who isn’t good enough to play, a reliever who can’t throw strikes, and a SP who was great at High A, but terrible at AA.

Written by jim fetterolf about 4 years ago.

“Everything I have heard and seen since then leads me to believe that Cain is a well above average defensive centerfielder.”

Perhaps, as he does have very good speed, but not as much as Dyson, who does get good reads and routes and has a superior arm. Before Melky dinged up his toe and ankle he was about an average CF, holding around -2 on fld, so Cain is likely a defensive upgrade over Melky. Just a matter of guessing whether he turns into Savior Perez with the bat or Johnny Giavotella, the range for rookies coming up this last year.

“If Cain isn’t really good enough to be our CFer we will have come up on the short end of the Greinke trade”

We traded a ten win pitcher who wanted out for one of the best defensive SS I’ve ever seen, so that’s a win right there. Esky’s bat is improving and career OPS is a pretty worthless average for a 2nd year player. Last half of the season he wasn’t hurting us with the bat and has been improving.

Cain also looks to be a win, just going to have a hard time displacing the Melk Man, who had an exceptional offensive year.

Odorizzi wasn’t terrible at Springdale, he just wasn’t as dominant. That often comes from concentration on secondary pitches in a tougher league and in a hitter’s ballpark.

On Jeffress, in hindsight, I think we see why Milwaukee threw him in, the 2nd coming of the Farns. So we hope he can turn into the 2nd coming of Felipe Paulino.

Written by Abh about 4 years ago.

Melk-man is a switch hitter, therein lies his real value… a dying art!

Written by Clark Fosler about 4 years ago.

Abh – I was thinking about that the other day as well: what has happened to all the switch-hitters? You would have thought with the advent of so many relief specialists that baseball would have spawned a greater number of switchhitters to combat it, but it doesn’t seem so.

It would be interesting to research the number of switchitters today versus say 20 years ago to see if they really have decreased…it sure seems like it.

Jim/KCGhost – I think Odorizzi is the key to whether the Greinke trade is a ‘win or loss’ for the Royals. Of course should Cain get traded or Melky traded and Cain performs, the return in either of those trades could swing it some, too.

Written by jim fetterolf about 4 years ago.

JaKKKKe could be, along with Esky, a major part of the Royal’s future. I’ve heard that he is a long-tosser, like Montgomery, and that the organization has screwed with his long-time training program. As for the trade, Royals already have won it and probably resign Zack when he goes FA. Royals got a great haul and in previous years three of the four would have been with the club all of ’11. Just a tribute to the organizational improvement that Cain couldn’t make the big club and Jeffress couldn’t stay and become the new Kyle Farnsworth. Odorizzi was always a couple of years away, so will be a bonus if he gets to the bigs.