The Thesis

The analyst's bullishness is justified largely by Amazon’s advertising business, which he now values at $75 billion against a previous forecast of $50 billion. (See Nowak's track record here.)

Morgan Stanley is betting on a larger-than-expected addressable market in trade spend from consumer packaged brands and manufacturers, amounting to $55 billion and driving 5-percent and 12-percent increases in 2018 and 2019 ad revenue estimates, respectively. Amazon could also tap into another $123 billion in U.S. trade spend over time, Nowak said.

In the meantime, though, the ad boosts are seen to translate to a 54-percent compound annual growth rate for Amazon’s sponsored product revenue between 2016 and 2019.