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2013: The Year of the Pitcher? Not Really

Is 2013 shaping up as the year of the pitcher? Based on the number of shutouts and 10 strikeout games, it would sure seem so. However, those headline events might be a little misleading.

Shutouts and Double-Digit Strikeout Games, First 24 Games, 1917-2013

Note: Based on composite of all events over each MLB team’s first 24 games.
Source: baseball-reference.com

Each team’s first 24 games in 2013 have yielded more double-digit strikeout performances and shutouts than any season since at least 1917. On a per-team basis, those figures still rank first and eighth, respectively, out of 97 campaigns. And yet, the major league ERA of 3.93 in April was actually a shade higher than the first month of the previous two seasons.

April Pitching Rates: ERA, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, 1996 to 2013

Note: Includes games in March and April.
Source: fangraphs.com

If April is foreshadowing a special year for pitchers, the honor will belong to the relievers. In the first month of 2013, starters pitched to an ERA of 4.07, while relief pitchers checked in at 3.67. Although relievers have regularly outperformed starters in the early going, the bullpen’s over 20% share of pitching WAR posted in April represents a significant increase over the past four seasons, albeit a return to normal levels before then.

April ERA: Relievers vs. Starters, 1996 to 2013

Note: Includes games in March and April.
Source: fangraphs.com

Relief Pitchers’ April WAR and IP Contributions, 1996 to 2013

Note: Includes games in March and April.
Source: fangraphs.com

Because high profile performances garner a disproportionate amount of attention, it might seem as if MLB is embarking upon a “year of the pitcher”. However, the first month of the season really suggests baseball is in the midst of a pitching-dominated era, and not so much poised for abnormal year of mound excellence.

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[…] more hits (despite inducing fewer ground balls) and home runs, while striking out fewer, which, in the current climate, is perhaps the most meaningful bellwether. If these trends continue, statistical models suggest […]