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Friday, October 12, 2012

Rios-Alvarado: Keys to the Fight

﻿One of the most anticipated action fights of 2012 takes
place this weekend between former lightweight titlist Brandon Rios (30-0-1, 22
KOs) and undefeated junior welterweight Mike Alvarado (33-0, 23 KOs). Both
fighters look to win by applying pressure and landing power shots, but which
one will wind up victorious? Read here for the keys to the fight. My prediction
will be at the end of the article.

1. Weight.

Much has been made of Brandon Rios'
trouble in making the lightweight limit over the last 12 months, with Rios
losing his title on the scales prior to facing John Murray and coming in
overweight against Richard Abril. Now, officially moving up to junior
welterweight, will Rios be the same destructive force at the new weight in which he was at lightweight?

There are opposing viewpoints as to how
Rios will perform at 140 lbs. One perspective posits that Rios has had an advantage
in his last fights in that he was bigger than were his opponents; thus, his punches
had more force than his foes were used to facing. The antithetical view
advocates that Rios was killing himself to such an extent just to make the
lightweight limit that he was weight-drained and zapped of energy. In this
scenario, the best Brandon Rios failed to emerge during these fights. This
second opinion is the one which I espouse. In his last few fights, Rios' legs
looked terrible and his agility was far from his best. I believe that at 140 he
will be a more dynamic fighter.

Nevertheless, it's one thing to face a
generic 140-pound fighter for a first major foray in the division, it's an
entirely different proposition to square off against someone like Alvarado, who
is a large junior welterweight and is very physical. Can Rios' special chin
handle Alvarado's power punches? Will Rios' sharp body attack lead to the same
winning formula that he had at lightweight? Will his power be diminished or enhanced at junior welterweight? I'm of the belief that the extra weight
will help Rios but is that still enough to beat Alvarado?

2. Combat Experience.

To me, it's clear that Rios has the
more impressive names on his resume. I believe that Anthony Peterson and Miguel
Acosta are better fighters than anyone whom Alvarado has faced. Alvarado's best
victories were against Mauricio Herrera, a crafty and aggressive fighter with
only average power, and Breidis Prescott, an accurate puncher who fades as
fights progress. These were perfectly suitable opponents and good names, but
Rios has defeated a tougher slate of foes.

This edge in experience is particularly
important in this fight because the match will most likely devolve into a bloody ring war.
Despite Alvarado's claim that he will try and box Rios, both fighters are much
more comfortable in close quarters, trading power shots. Alvarado is not an
effective fighter when he backs up. He might box for a few rounds, but
ultimately he will hold his ground against Rios; standing and trading
is his best opportunity to impose his will on the fight.

Here is where the unknown comes into
play. Rios has been in ring wars with top prospects, champions and challengers.
Alvarado has persevered against lesser guys. Most notably, he needed a
last-round knockout to earn a win over Prescott. His comeback against Prescott
was impressive, but again, it's Breidis Prescott! For a fighter with designs on
reaching the top of the junior welterweight division, Alvarado shouldn't be
going life-and-death with a fighter like Breidis Prescott. Of course, Rios had his own struggles with
Richard Abril; however, I attribute that performance to Rios' inability to
fight at lightweight anymore. Perhaps I am being too charitable to Rios, but
that's how I see it. Rios has thrived at a high level and it's unclear whether Alvarado can win a war against a top fighter.

3. What happens in the first three
rounds?

Rios, like many pressure fighters, is a
notorious slow starter. Alvarado begins fights energetically but not
necessarily effectively. I don't expect the fight to be won in the first three
rounds, but it can definitely be lost there. Although both fighters will be
gunning for the knockout, it's certainly possible that the bout will go to the
scorecards. I'm not sure that Rios can afford to give up more than a few early
rounds.

Alvarado can sometimes personify
ineffective aggression. He looks active, he throws hard shots but he often
misses. Rios should be there to hit but even slight head movement can give
Alvarado problems. It's imperative for Alvarado to put rounds in the bank early
in the fight. If that means shortening up his shots to land, then that's the
direction he needs to take.

4. Precision.

I think the biggest difference between
the two fighters is that Rios' accuracy is superior. Although both boxers excel
at inside fighting, Rios' shots are shorter and, I believe, cause more damage.
Alvarado's punches from the outside, specifically his straight right hand and
left hook, often miss their mark. His best punches are his left and right
uppercuts on the inside. Rios is much more economical with his punches. He
doesn't flail as much as Alvarado does and he waits until he is in range to throw.
In addition, he is a committed body puncher while Alvarado can resort to head
hunting.

Accuracy, I believe, will be the
biggest determinant of the fight. Both fighters will stand in front of each
other and trade. Rios' shots are just a little bit better, they hit their mark
more often and they will get there faster.

5. Skin

Both fighters can get marked up but
Alvarado has gotten cut badly in prior fights. Although this isn't the most
tactically challenging/interesting aspect to discuss in this fight, it could
prove to be crucial. Both fighters have such a healthy disdain for defense;
they will get hit repeatedly with hard bombs throughout the fight. Obviously,
they are both tough guys who pride themselves on their respective ring styles.
However, all the machismo in the world can't save skin from opening up. It's a
very real possibility that this fight ends on cuts.

Prediction:

I think Alvarado wins the first few
rounds on activity as he uses his jab and some rudimentary movement to
temporary flummox Rios. By the middle rounds, Rios closes the distance and the
two trade punches as the fight progresses. There will be several round-of-the
year candidates with both fighters unloading their power shots in a vicious
display of boxing at its most beautifully savage. Ultimately, I think that the
shorter and quicker shots of Rios will get the better of Alvarado. I don't see
Alvarado's skin holding up throughout the fight. His face will cut up from Rios's
offensive assault and I think he won't make it to the final bell; the
referee will prohibit Alvarado from continuing.