Abstract: E13.00008 : Hubbert's Peak -- A Physicist's View

Author:

Richard McDonald
(none)

Oil, as used in agriculture and transportation, is the lifeblood
of modern
society. It is finite in quantity and will someday be exhausted.
In 1956,
Hubbert proposed a theory of resource production and applied it
successfully
to predict peak U.S. oil production in 1970. Bartlett extended
this work in
publications and lectures on the finite nature of oil and its
production
peak and depletion. Both Hubbert and Bartlett place peak world oil
production at a similar time, essentially now. Central to these
analyses are
estimates of total ``oil in place'' obtained from engineering
studies of oil
reservoirs as this quantity determines the area under the
Hubbert's Peak.
Knowing the production history and the total oil in place allows
us to make
estimates of reserves, and therefore future oil availability. We
will then
examine reserves data for various countries, in particular OPEC
countries,
and see if these data tell us anything about the future
availability of oil.
Finally, we will comment on synthetic oil and the possibility of
carbon-neutral synthetic oil for a sustainable future.

To cite this abstract, use the following reference: http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2011.APR.E13.8