Sunday, November 18, 2012

Assessing the 2012 Presidential Election

“Women can be emancipated only when she can take part on a large social scale in production and is engaged in domestic work only to an insignificant degree.”
~ Friedrich Engels, The Origin of the Family, Private Property and the State

I have not written in a while, mostly because I was waiting to see how the 2012 elections would pan out in the belief that the huge infusion of super PAC cash would have discernable results that could be dissected and bemoaned. Fortunately, the younger, non-white male coalition that elected Barack Obama in 2008 was able to show up again in 2012 and fend off not only the avalanche of rightwing PAC money, but a truly reactionary Republican pairing of CEO arrogance and Ayn Rand misanthropy. Not to mention a slew of patriarchal Christian nutcases running for the U.S. Senate.

The biggest takeaway was that representative democracy triumphed over campaign cash this time, with the exception of extreme gerrymandering of many House of Representative districts to favor Republicans. Much of the Republican defeat could be attributed to what Paul Ryan refers to as the "urban vote" which realistically includes women, young, African-American, Hispanic and Asian voters. Threats of reducing this vote through intimidation and reduction of early voting only served to increase the determination of the targeted voters to turn out and vote, no matter how unnecessarily difficult the process was.

The Tea Party clown car, the juggernut of the 2010 mid-term elections, ran out of gas or more precisely, the gassy old men at the wheel drove it off a cliff. They did this by making the huge mistake of opening their mouths and letting voters, specifically women, know what they thought about the issues that affect them. The comments they made about rape were quite remarkable for being so far out of mainstream thought even in a society that is as domineeringly patriarchal as this one. Indeed,they revealed a belief system rivalling that of a Taliban-like theocracy. Life of the unborn is sacred to the point that rape can be thought of as God's will. The logic behind this thought was quite well lost on the vast majority of voters and they soundly repudiated them, negating hundreds of millions of dollars of rightwing PAC money in the process.

So where do we go from here? It is obvious that the angry, white male vote is not going to carry the day for the Republicans if more than 40 percent of the electorate actually comes out to vote. Will the Republicans adopt a new line to woo other groups besides the mono-color, mono-sex rainbow they currently pander to? Perhaps an even bigger question is will the Democrats actually reward the people who voted for them?

I feel that although the Big Money Republican donors came up mostly empty this election and the demographic tilt is going to increasingly favor the Democrats, the ability of truly democratic principles to take root in this country will continue to be hampered by the rigid confines of our social and economic system. Indeed, the immediate way forward is full of land mines as a "grand compromise for allowing tax cuts on the wealthy to expire may include more sacrifice for the most vulnerable members of society. Women voters, who had a huge role in deciding this election, may not fully reach equality until traditional gender roles are transformed, no matter which political party is at the reigns.

This election could signal a trend away from the type of government that seeks to keep large segments of its population as second class citizens. Many countries in this hemisphere have recently elected champions of the traditionally under-represented majorities. Or it could be an illusion where the hope for a transformational change of conditions proves to be nothing more than a temporary mirage.

30 comments:

"Much of the Republican defeat could be attributed to what Paul Ryan refers to as the 'urban vote' which realistically includes women, young, African-American, Hispanic and Asian voters."

Don't forget: It was all those Democrat "gifts" that won the "urban vote."

Mitt had to blame someone or something for his failure, and deflect it as far from himself and his poorly-run campaign as was possible.

Certainly, he wasn't talking about the "gifts" that he would have bestowed upon the 1% (2%, 5%,10%)--gifts which garnered their financial support--were he to capture the White House: the repeal of the Affordable Health Care Act, and the dismantling of federal departments that stood in the way of the 1% making more billions in profits or income.

"The comments they made about rape were quite remarkable for being so far out of mainstream thought even in a society that is as domineeringly patriarchal as this one."

Although Obama received a large number of the women's vote, one would've expected a higher number, and perhaps he would have received them, but for his stance on contraception, abortion, and same-sex marriage--the religious Right's cause célèbre.

Pressure on the Right to court evangelicals by attacking women's reproductive rights, and TeaPublicans with Paul Ryan as Mitt's running mate, further shifted the party to the right to accommodate these two factions, a place where the party will remain--as that's where their base and support is--come 2016 and beyond, an intractable position, from which there's neither a retreat nor escape, if the party wishes to retain a large swath of its current base. Their position is summed up in the adage: "If you live by the sword, you die by the sword."

Speaking of the snake swallowing it's tail, we need look no farther than today's Republican party.

"Life of the unborn is sacred to the point that rape can be thought of as God's will."

It's this political extremism--now becoming synonymous with the character of the Republican party--that's making the party more and more unacceptable to many in the electorate, Independents and Republicans alike, and which, as more and more potential voters reject their radical ideology, will ultimate in the demise of the party.

"Will the Republicans adopt a new line to woo other groups besides the mono-color, mono-sex rainbow they currently pander to?"

I don't think the party can. If the Republican party attempts to enlarge its tent, it will force many who're already in the tent to leave and seek political shelter elsewhere, potentially starting that dreaded third party which will compete with the current one, further eroding both its membership and ultimately its political clout.

it wouldn't surprise me if the Tea Party faction of the Republican party venture out on its own in the wake of the "fiscal-cliff" debacle that will bring additional pressure to bear to compromise its values, which is not to compromise at all, but to hold fast to their fiscal-conservative aspirations to reduce the size of government and the debt by any means necessary--disregarding the impact that wholesale, draconian cuts will have on the nation's economy.

"[T]he immediate way forward is full of land mines as a 'grand compromise' for allowing tax cuts on the wealthy to expire may include more sacrifice for the most vulnerable members of society."

If that were to take place, it would take more than the president to make it happen, but Democrats in the Senate as well, as they would absorb as much blame for it as the president.

Talks are currently underway among Democrats to change the 60-vote rule, and threshold, in the Senate to undermine the power of the filibuster, and its impediment to advancing legislation.

Elizabeth Warren and a few other incoming and current senators may be the ones to spearhead this effort. We'll have to wait and see just how successful their efforts will be in a Congress more known for its timidity than its boldness.

"Or it could be an illusion where the hope for a transformational change of conditions proves to be nothing more than a temporary mirage."

Republicans characterized the recent presidential election as one that would destroy the country if President Obama won. And they were right, the nation that they knew and cherished is coming to an end, and a new one is emerging, but the doom and gloom that will attend the transition will impact only those who would like to retain the status quo rather than yield to the "new wind" that's transforming this nation, and indeed the world.

In Myanmar, President Obama reflected on this change, and the need to embrace differences as a blessing rather than a curse, drawing on his own experience and the experience of other blacks in this country that say change is not only possible, but inevitable.

I hope you'll continue to share your thoughts with us here, and with greater frequency.

BD...all excellent points. I kept waiting for someone to point out that Mitt would have doled out plenty of corporate welfare "gifts" to his donors. Karl Rove (mis)spent 400 million dollars and got nothing in return. But those donors certainly wanted something in return, and of course many of the Wall Street banking cartels and other deep pocket special interests will probably still be able to keep many of their subsidies since they play both sides of the fence to hedge their bets.

The Extreme Right definitely lost this battle in the culture war, but they remain regionally strong across the South and parts of the West. I do agree with you that it is inevitable that they and the Tea Party influence (which has cost the Republicans about five senate seats in the last two elections) can only help hasten the demise of the Republican Party.

One thing I am not thankful for this Thanksgiving is the fact that the U.S. has lurched so far to the right over the past three decades that even the re-election of President Obama, while a huge relief, is almost certainly not going to herald the end of the class warfare directed at the working class by the lords of transnational capital. The SE Asian trip, while ostensibly an emotional paen to "freedom and democracy" has some troubling undertones. I will write more about this in the future.

Ernesto, have you come out as a white man anywhere on your blog yet? You've intentionally switched your ethnic persona -- kind of like gender bending, only without the heavy eyeliner and hairspray. Mortified by the Angry White Man motif, disassociation is your only way out...I feel ya, I feel ya, but you should Come Out.

"Will the Republicans adopt a new line to woo other groups besides the mono-color, mono-sex rainbow they currently pander to?"

I predict the right will converge their efforts through these channels:

1. Working intensely at the state level. With no hope of sway at the executive level, they will work diligently to upend state laws. Look at the way anti-choice efforts are picking up momentum in the South...they are effectively chipping away at abortion rights, one state at a time.

2. Finding a minority to symbolize and emphasize their "Christian values." Concrete Christian beliefs are integral to the Republican message, so they already have fundamentalists hooked, but now they know they NEED minorities to stay alive. They'll find a figurehead who seems relatable on different levels, like a Catholic Mexican-American.

3. Using churches to mount a more active base at the local level. Though tax-exempt churches are not supposed to support or oppose candidates, the IRS has only revoked one church's tax-exempt status for its involvement in politics over the course of the last 60 years. My polling place is a CRC church...fundamentalist churches are synonymous with local government 'round here. It's an effective route to swell their party.

Going forward, liberals need to not only play defense at the state and local levels, but also beef up their offense. And yes, that means me and you. I need to press my township to change my polling location from a Republican-y church to the willing and able university up the street.

"T]hey remain regionally strong across the South and parts of the West."

For now.

Texas is trending blue, and by 2016 will be all blue, or a battleground purple, such is the growth of the Latino community there.

As an aside: When I picked up my Thanksgiving turkey, the Mexican-American chef said this:

"I didn't vote for Obama because he was black, I voted for him because he wasn't white."

We laughed for a time, as I told him that I might share his story with others.

"[T]he U.S. has lurched so far to the right over the past three decades that even the re-election of President Obama ... is almost certainly not going to herald the end of the class warfare directed at the working class by the lords of transnational capital."

This is why we must show these "lords" who's really in charge, who the real bosses are.

The founder and owner of Papa John's Pizzas, John Schnatter, has found this out, as well as an owner of several Denny's in New York state.

As long as the people have the power to choose where they spend their money, they can shape outcomes, and impact decisions that were initially made with autocratic verve, and from a place of greed and disregard for the little man.

We saw this, too, when Bank of America raised certain banking fees, and the ensuing public push-back.

Capital has always despised labor, almost from the inception of this nation--and certainly during its industrial age when the likes of Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Morgan, and Carnegie ruled with impunity for a time, and with an iron fist.

For all their power, and money, I still believe that that power and money can be met with an equal resolve by workers, since workers are consumers, too.

All that's needed is solidarity, and a united front.

It was not money alone that saw the reelection of President Obama, as he was well outspent by the opposition, but a "united front," one determined to outwork, and out-perform the competition.

Carmelita, have we met before? I am honored by your apparent gift to me of white male privilege and I will try to wear it well and uphold the virtue and high standards of white maleness. It will be interesting to see if others allow me to. But for now I will carry myself with the same regal demeanor and air of entitlement that the very whitest of white males display. Thank you!

Your list of attack plans for Republicans seem to me to be on point. Look what has gone down here in Michigan. But let's face it, all they are doing is energizing the Democratic base and their efforts shall backfire, as they did on the national level this year. Snyder's popularity is down to 28 percent.

I am worried that the power grab of gerrymandering will be followed by the power grab of changing the electoral college rules in blue states. Republicans love trying to rig the game.

"For all their power, and money, I still believe that that power and money can be met with an equal resolve by workers, since workers are consumers, too."

BD, bingo! Game over if we get together and bridge the petty bickering that has always afflicted the working classes. We own THEM even more than they own the government. That is real power and we need to use it, because they are coming for what's left of the social contract right now.

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