Friday, March 10, 2017

Moscow Media Outlets Reprise for Belarus Themes They Used Prior to Russian Intervention in Ukraine

Paul
Goble

Staunton, March 9 – Russian
propaganda outlets are employing exactly the same thematics they did before
Moscow intervened in Ukraine, insisting that Belarusians are being led by
anti-Russian nationalists who represent the only game in town even though they
would much prefer to be part of the Russian Federation, according to a survey
by Vadim Dovnar.

Denis Ivashin, editor of the
Belarusian site InformNapalm, argues that this is part and parcel of a Russian
effort to suggest that Belarus is now “a failed state” and that Russians must
be ready to take action to save the situation just as Moscow did in the case of
Ukraine three years ago.

Another Belarusian commentator,
Severin Kvyatkovsky says that “Russia in principle needs a week and dependent
Belarus” not only in the event of a conflict with the West but in general:
Moscow doesn’t want “strong independent neighbors. Therefor the Russian
Federation will use any means and situations to achieve its goals.”

And Viktor Martinovich, a Belarusian
writer adds, that in his view, Moscow’s current propaganda effort has two
audiences: the Belarusian which is being told that it must not move toward the
West and the Russian which is being reminded that Moscow may have to take
action to prevent that from happening.

In a comment to Kseniya Kirillova of
RFE/RL, Belarusian security analyst Andrey Savitsky puts the Russian propaganda
effort in the context of the Gerasimov Doctrine, a reference to the ideas of
General Valery Gerasimov about hybrid war. (On his doctrine, see vpk-news.ru/articles/14632; for Savitsky’s words, see ru.krymr.com/a/28357521.html.)

According to Savitsky, Moscow is not
only using propaganda but active measures to “expand its influence in various
spheres in the first instance in the security services, bureaucratic apparatus
and even among certain NGOs and opposition groups”both directly and via false flag operations,
something that further confuses the situation and makes it more explosive.