As I have mentioned before, I will be on a panel discussing the post-election unrest in Armenia this weekend. I hope I will meet some of you in New York during the symposium. For those of you who cannot attend, below is an abstract of my talk:

When Armenia erupted in violence earlier this year, many were hesitant to believe reports of deaths and destruction. Few expected violence in a tiny republic that has been harshly affected by an ongoing economic blockade and a recent war with neighboring Azerbaijan.

But the assumption that Armenians are united given their collective experience of oppression was challenged on the streets of Yerevan. With cries for “Justice,” many Armenians in their homeland protested corruption and a perceived conspiracy by government officials, most of whom were from the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Many Armenians in the Diaspora, concerned with their historic homelands image and national security, viewed the movement as one destabilizing Armenia.

While it is correctly argued that many of the protestors hoped to receive personal gain by supporting the opposition, the Levon Ter-Petrosyan team for many others seemed to be a medium to express outrage against unaccountable and unresponsive government. The opposition was the mean and not the end. Conversely, much of the outcry has been expressed in regional hatred, raising the question whether injustice can bring about justice.

More specifically, one wonders whether a government can change without a change in the society. What’s the relationship between institutions and the society? Which one holds the lead in transforming politics and traditions?

I would just like to say that I don’t think any bloggers were hesitant to believe. However, you were reporting unsubstantiated rumors and there was a lot of misinformation going around. Indeed, many such as myself were warning it would end in bloodshed from last year. On the morning I spoke to the BBC’s guy in Tbilisi on the phone and said they’re BOTH preparing for a clash and people are going to die.

Remember, many of us were constantly in among all of this as it happened and remember the hate. I even blogged that the general consensus among us foreign journalists here was that the clashes would happen within a week, and in fact, they did. Nobody listened to us, though, because the local analysts here are usually pretty tame and/or partisan. It’s amazing for me how they can even be taken seriously anymore.

Anyway, the death toll rose to ten months LONG AFTER the incident with two of the dead dying in hospital from wounds received weeks earlier. So, actually, if you reported ten dead on 1 March you were incorrect and it is IMPORTANT to work with figures that are substantiated or hell, why not go with some rumor you hear about the morgues being full of hundreds of dead.

Anyway, I’d also like to add one thing. The size of the rallies 15-30,000 usually hitting a peak of 50-55,000 were pretty much the same as the last presidential election (45,000 attending at Matendaran). What was different was not dissatisfaction with social injustice — hell, like this is a new thing… it’s been here since Levon himself raped the country and banned political parties and closed down media outlets.

What was different was the leadership. Compared to Demirchian in 2003, Levon was charismatic and intellectual and able to lead the core group of 15,000 people he could gather (this was how many people were assembled by the French Embassy on 1 March. Do not believe pro-opposition propaganda about 100,000 as well as their 500,000 in Liberty Square).

It was also the last chance for the radical opposition to stay in the game. While Heritage did show some support they did not join Levon’s movement which was pretty much a bunch of extra-parliamentary political groups whose days were numbered or already over. Levon was their last chance and I’m pretty sure they hoped the West would support a colored revolution in Armenia.

But, as some very significant western journalists said, support they might have had, but it wasn’t enough. There was no critical mass — at least 100,000 on the streets and not 20-30,000 on average. Still, in their favor, of those that they did mobilize, they were committed and dedicated — something you can’t say about government supporters or those behind Demirchian in 2003.

Nevertheless, while those attending the rallies were mostly THE SAME people attending rallies in 2003 and 2004 and I don’t doubt the genuine nature of their protest, it was clear to most of us that this WAS NOT a battle for democracy as shown by Levon’s cynicism in declaring himself the winner with 65 percent when actually, most independent observers believe he received 25-30 percent.

Some might push it to 35 percent, but that’s it.

Instead, what this was was two parts of the same corrupt system fighting for succession to Kocharian. It was a battle between those in power and in control of the wealth with those formerly in power who used to have control of the wealth. It’s why I believe a larger mass of people wanted to have nothing to do with this depressing example of an election here.

What do we need? We need a genuine new pro-democratic force in Armenia along with a government that has no choice but to liberalize and democratize. In a sense, that’s about the only good thing that MIGHT come out of the presidential election and the carnage that followed it.

First of all, I removed my reference to the number of deaths that I reported (since I didn’t mention it in my presentation). I don’t want to concentrate on this but if you really want to debate this further you might want to reread your comment at http://blogian.hayastan.com/2008/03/01/armenia-protest-deaths-rise/ first and we can carry on from there.

I agree with most of your statements though. I’d also suggest, borrowing John Hughes’ words, that the demonstrators had the right message but the wrong person to deliver it. Moreover, I think that the right message was also incorrectly articulated.

Is there, or will there be, a transcript of your session? I’m sure I’m not the only one who couldn’t attend but would like to hear/read all the presentations, and also learn what the general reception was. Thanks!