Scott Brown can run in New Hampshire ... and lose

A lot of New Hampshire citizens object to former Massachusetts U.S. Sen. Scott Brown moving to New Hampshire to possibly compete for one of New Hampshire's seats in the U.S Senate. They call him a carpetbagger and frame it as somehow offensive.

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seacoastonline.com

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Posted Jan. 3, 2014 at 2:00 AM

Posted Jan. 3, 2014 at 2:00 AM

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To the Editor:

A lot of New Hampshire citizens object to former Massachusetts U.S. Sen. Scott Brown moving to New Hampshire to possibly compete for one of New Hampshire's seats in the U.S Senate. They call him a carpetbagger and frame it as somehow offensive.

I'm a lifelong Democrat. Even though Scott Brown is a Republican, I have no problem with him trying to compete for public office; it's his legal right. If he wants to enjoy all the prerequisites of citizenship, then more power to him. I just think that in his case it would be ridiculous. No matter how he would like to phrase it, it would represent an open admission of his own political weakness. Here's why:

He's won only one U.S. Senate race, and that was against a weak opponent whose smile can pucker a lemon, Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley. Coakley has little in the way of personal charisma; Brown has more. Then, after Massachusetts residents had a chance to observe him in office, he lost his re-election bid to a newcomer easily painted as extremist, Massachusetts U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, someone who has tremendous personal charisma. Brown has less. Following that — and this is the crowning folly within the context of a potentially renewed Scott Brown political career — Brown had another chance to run for an open U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts (vacated when Secretary of State John Kerry was appointed to his current office), and he declined. No matter what he might say about that, if he chooses to compete against New Hampshire's U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, that decision will be interpreted as him choosing to not run for the Senate seat in Massachusetts because he knew he'd lose.

It's a reasonable assumption. If Scott Brown wants to be a senator so much that he might compete in New Hampshire, then why didn't he run for the office in Massachusetts when he last had the chance? He might say that it's because he wanted a rest from politics, but career politicians don't take breaks from politics when their health and their chances are good and the next elective office they seek is not an ascension. We can be fairly confident that the next office Brown seeks won't be an ascension because that would leave only the presidency, and he shouldn't be considering that based on the strength of one Senate victory followed by a re-election defeat and his declension to fight for an open seat.

It's fair to assume that Brown chose to not run for Senate when he last had the chance because he assumed that Massachusetts voters, the people who know him best and watched him up close, would prefer a Democrat. It had to have been a strategic calculation: Two losses in a row, and — kerplunk! — Brown's political career would be over, so he stayed out. That election's victor, Massachusetts U.S. Sen. Ed Markey (then a congressman), openly boasted in his campaign ads on television that he had the courage to stand up to the National Rifle Association. It looks like Scott Brown didn't have the courage to stand up to him.

If Brown wants to run against Shaheen, there's also strong opposition among New Hampshire Republicans to his potential candidacy. He supported an assault rifle ban. That's practically a killer before he gets out of the gate when gun issues are so important to Republicans. If he wins the GOP nomination, party enthusiasm will be muted.

Scott Brown's motives are too transparent: Massachusetts voters didn't want him again so he's looking for an easier way. He's office-shopping in New Hampshire. That's a little bit offensive because it looks like he thinks we're unsophisticated hicks. It's the definition of carpetbagging, but never mind anyway.

Sen. Brown's potential candidacy is hardly a threat to Sen. Shaheen's career, though it's still the biggest one New Hampshire Republicans have yet to produce. As far as I'm concerned, he's welcome to compete, carpetbagger or not. Maybe one day, a career Democrat will move into the state and try the same thing, and we'll see how it turns out then.