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September 8, 2010

[Now inNepal, there is possibility of two types of coup d'états. The first is regressivecoup d'état, which could be staged by the army. The other is progressive coup d'état, which could be staged by nationalist progressive democrats, who are functioning as second layer leaders or cadres within the major parties. They could stage the political and organizational coup d'état against their ownpartyHeadquarters. If this happens, people could see at least a ray of hope. The third option is disintegration ofNepalinto several smaller nationality/ethnic units. If this option gets accelerated, there would be bloodshed of unprecedented nature and scale. The solution is not several smaller nationality/ethnic units, but a nationality/ethnicity based cooperative federal system. The fourth option isNepalbeing a protectorate either ruled by western powers through a United Nations' mechanism or directly byIndia. Hence, the situation is grave. ]

By Govinda Neupane

Thepolitical partiesare repeating the same wrongful acts and activities as they did in 1950s and 1990s. In those times they were after power-grab and these days they are again after power-play. They ignored people's problems and aspirations completely in the past when they were at the helm; they are doing the same today. As a stake holder of the parliamentary political processes, the UnifiedMaoistparty has been claiming itself as a revolutionary force. This role was played by theCommunist Party of Nepal (UML)in 1990s. The lack of alignment between the form and content is what the Unified Maoist party is sick of today. Similarly, the CPN (UML) is a party that represents the interests of middle class people. Still, it declares it is the party of proletariats. While theNepali Congress, at best, is a centre-right party, but it profusely declares itself a socialist party. Hence, all three parties have been suffering from ideological illusion. Their philosophical lenses are working no more, however, they pretend their lenses are all right. The major Nepali political parties are in crisis in that their approaches and practices are totally detached from the ideology they love to talk about. The other smaller parties are also in the same condition or if we find some of them alright, still their roles may not have much impact in the larger political amphitheater of the nation.

All the main leaders want power-grab, the high office of thePrime Minister. There is total irresponsibility towards the people from their part. Two of the leaders representing two major parties are contesting an election which has failed to produce result for 7th times in a row. The third largest party knows nothing other than hatching political conspiracies to get the highest seat of the state power. This time 'consensus' is theirmantrato cover their ill intent. They want to sit on the driver's seat whatever way they could. The Madhesi parties, notorious for their splits and doubtful practices, are at the bidding place and the bidders are bidding for their votes. Therefore, the political circus, which stands worst in the history ofNepal, has been going on and on. The end result of the collective political behavior of the political actors has been confined to petty interests of the political lead-actors or if I ma – the villains or their parties. Similar to their ideological chit-chats, the nation and the people are simply means to attain power and prosperity for them.

Over Reactive Civil Societies:

The civil societies ofNepal- the social forces also are overly reactive. They are just reacting to both issues and non issues. Coming to street has become the order of the day. There are several "forced closures" of market, transport, industries and educational institutions as and when a small section wishes so. Stone throwing crowd could be seen all overNepal. Bewildered with all sets of chaos and anarchies, the indigenous people in some areas have started to demand greater role including a nominally federated state system. The demand of Limbuvan autonomous state is an example.

Thelaw and ordersituation has been deteriorating continuously. People are feeling insecure as criminals could strike anytime. Their lives and properties are in danger. The criminals have a field day. The crime graphs including the daring cases of rubbery, abduction and killings are increasing leaps and bounds. Particularly, the central Madhes is seeing such anarchies regularly. The people in Madhes are the worst affected lot. A Tim, Dick or Harry comes with a gun, loots a few, kills a few and disappears. Madhesis – the peoples of Madhes, are living in a desperate situation where the state becomes an onlooker. The parties and the leaders, who claim to represent Madhes and Madhesi people, are busy making their fortune inKathmandu. Moreover, the people all overNepalhave become virtually powerless and they have grown pessimists. There is the other side of the coin. Therefore, there are chances that the patience of people dries out and a situation of total anarchy pervades the country.

The youths all overNepalare getting escape route in the form of foreign employment. Skilled or unskilled, rural or urban, male or female and healthy or not so much aspire for going out, particularly in Gulf countries, Malaysia, South Korea , Japan, USA, UK and Australia. This large scale labour force migration has been helping the national economy breathing as remittance income is 22% of annual GDP of Nepal. However, in the absence of youths and their vigor, vision and spirit, societal as well as political changes have suffered much.

Nearly 2/3 Nepalese Below Poverty Line:

The gap between the rich and poor has been widening. The recentOxfordreport says that there is a large majority of people under poverty line (Multidimensional Poverty Index Poor 64.7%). The national wealth is mostly under the control of a few super rich families. The economic contradiction has been fierce. The strikes in industries, though ignited by political aspirants have reflected the workers' desire for a better life.

At macroeconomic level, the situation is fast approaching to full-fledged characteristics of a failed state. The legislature is unable to pass the annual budget as there is constant fight among the major political parties in the parliament. The Balance of Payment is unbelievingly negative. The foreign currency reserve has been decreasing. Trade deficit is alarmingly high. The growth rate of economy is nominal. Nobody knows exactly what the rate of unemployment/underemployment is in the country. No new macro development projects, which could add wealth to national economy and provide infrastructural foundation, offer employment, were implemented during these past several years. Prices of essential commodities are skyrocketing. Corruption, nepotism, favoritism, malpractices and black-marketing have become regular features.

On the nationalism front,Nepalhas been in the weakest position after the war against the British colonizer (1814-1816). This fact also has been rightly pointed out by Pashupati Sumsher Rana and Baburam Bhattarai in their television appearances. They were unanimously comparing today's situation with that of aforementioned period. When Nepalese are so much divided, it is only natural that the foreign powers start meddling. Not only big countries likeUSAor big neighbors likeIndiaorChina, but also small European countries likeNorwaytry to diktat. The resources they provide and their nationals who are international professionals and hold high offices inNepalare the instruments of their meddling. Together,India,European Union,USAand United Nations are over stepping on Nepali sovereign rights in an unprecedented manner. These over stepping, meddling and interferences have contributed immensely to the making ofNepala strong candidate for failed state. Now, survival as a nation and as a people has become the first and foremost concern for all of the Nepalese citizens.

Grave Situation:

The situation is too gloomy. The nation is too fragile. The people are too weak. This mess is what the 'big' political leaders and their party machines have created. Their lust for power, money and luxury is the main cause of this sad situation. The problem is that we do not have any strong and organized progressive political force to take initiative and start doing something to generate synergy for a rapid political change. Hence,Nepalis virtually at the stage of either power take-over by the regressive forces or fragmentation of its territory to deferent nationality/ethnic units or losing its sovereign national status. Alternatively, the process could be reversed if nationalists (do not equate to royalist), leftists and democrats within all major parties rebel against their Headquarters. If the rebels could take control of their parties or form separate parties and create a united front with other like minded parties, they could keepNepalunited. This endeavor offers hope to people, creates positive environment to reverse the fate of being failed state and opens up new horizon to move forward.

Now inNepal, there is possibility of two types of coup d'états. The first is regressive coup d'état, which could be staged by the army. The other is progressive coup d'état, which could be staged by nationalist progressive democrats, who are functioning as second layer leaders or cadres within the major parties. They could stage the political and organizational coup d'état against their own party Headquarters. If this happens, people could see at least a ray of hope. The third option is disintegration ofNepalinto several smaller nationality/ethnic units. If this option gets accelerated, there would be bloodshed of unprecedented nature and scale. The solution is not several smaller nationality/ethnic units, but a nationality/ethnicity based cooperative federal system. The fourth option isNepalbeing a protectorate either ruled by western powers through a United Nations' mechanism or directly byIndia. Hence, the situation is grave.

No Many Choices Upfront:

We have not many choices available. Therefore, all who loveNepalshould be alert, active and organized to challenge theBhasmashurs(Hindu mythical personage who destroyed himself by putting hand on his own head). Defeating or sidelining them, at least, makes space available to initiate the process of societal transformation and national renewal. Therefore, all patriotic, progressive and democratic Nepali political and social activists should contribute most meaningfully to make sure that our beloved motherland overcomes weaknesses, acquires strengths and starts shining. Strategically, only "people power" movements could realize this goal. The "People power" movements could include but not limited to mass information initiatives, political awareness campaigns, cultural programs, diplomatic lobbying, literary works, pro-Nepal internet information endeavors/campaign/networking, dissemination of well-researched facts/truths and direct actions including demonstrations. Let us create the sound of thousands ofVuvuzelaaiming to energize the grassroots and encourage the pro-people, pro-Nepal activists. A person or a group or a mass of large number of people, individually or collectively, could contribute in these "People Power" movements. Hence, wherever we are, this is our duty to organize or participate in these movements and contribute positively whichever way we could. Long LiveNepal!

*( The author is a socio-political thinker. His book ‘Nepalko Jatiya Prasna’ – (Ethnic Issues ofNepal), an acclaimed book of the late 1990s made him one of the pragmatist writers of the contemporaryNepal. The book deals with the ethnic issues, the disadvantaged majority folks’ issues of the country. He has discussed some crucial issues for socio-economic development of the country.)

Comment(s)

----------Forwarded message ----------

From: Subarno Pande

Date: Fri, Sep 10, 2010 at 6:31 AM

Subject: Re: AN ANATOMY OF CURRENT NEPAL’S CURRENT CRISIS: BHUTAN IS NO BETTER

To: The Himalayan Voice

Nepal must be made a HinduRepublic having good relationship with India.Even small country like Bhutankicked out from its southern districts some 1, 70,000 Hindu Bhutanese who are now languishing in UN camps inIndiaandNepal. And we asIndiaand Indian people, are shameless doing nothing about it. Shame on us !!

WhileBhutan, a tiny Himalayan country, can do this; how can we talk of counteringPakistanorChinaor be a global power likeUSA? All Indian should unitedly do something about it or we as a nation have no right to live after ditching our brothers and sisters inBhutan, Bangladesh,Pakistan,Srilanka,Malaysia, etc.