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There was a stretch of time where Super Bowls were somewhat easy to handicap.
There were plenty of handicappers with streaks of picking x number of Super
Bowls in a row correctly, including yours truly. But that was at a time when
there were some very big differences between the AFC and the NFC with each
taking turns being superior to the other. The NFC had a long stretch where it
always seemed to be on top.

That was then, this is now. The NFL over the last decade has achieved it's
goal of parity. Heck, once upon a time it was possible to find multiple solid
selections week to week during the regular season. Now more than ever,
handicapping the NFL on a week to week basis is almost impossible.
Any
handicapper having a "great" NFL season is doing so with a great deal of luck.
There are no "bad" NFL lines. There is no "inside information". Those things
existed once upon a time. Not in 2011.

This is only magnified with the Super Bowl, the single most popular sports
betting event of the year. No bettor is going to find an "edge", betting on the
side or the total of the Super Bowl. The lines are correct. All that can
possibly be known about both of these teams is known. It's out there. These two
teams are very similar in make up.

Both have very good QB's that can move around in the pocket and take off if
they have to. Both have some great targets to get the ball to. Both have had
their problems running the ball. Both have had their offensive problems at times
this year and both have tremendous defenses. Both coaches have proven
themselves. Perhaps Tomlin has an edge having been to and won a Super Bowl
already.

In fact if you're looking for any edge at all, and it could be a big one, it
would have to be Super Bowl experience. The Steelers have it from the coach on
down. The Packers don't. Packers coach Mike McCarthy has never been to the Super
Bowl. Not as a coach. Not even as a spectator. There are only two players on the
Packers roster who have been to the big game. There are 28 players on the
Steelers, 15 starters and 13 backups who have Super Bowl experience.

In many of the Super Bowl blowouts of yesteryear, it was the team with the
Super Bowl experience on top. Makes sense as well. Often times this game is won
or lost in the preparation stages. How the team handles the layoff, how the team
handles the media, and so forth. Often times the inexperienced team was just
happy to be there. So if you're looking for any edge to hang your hat on, there
it is. The problem with that edge, if it exists, is that you would be guessing,
going in, that it will be a factor. It may, it may not. The Saints won last
year, having never been to the game before.

Professional sports bettors will focus on prop bets on Super Bowl Sunday.
There, you WILL find mistakes in the lines. Many of them. Aside from mistakes by
oddsmakers, professional bettors will also look to take advantage of mistakes
the general public makes when they bet on props. The public loves to bet on
anything that involves scoring or success by a team or individual. They'll bet
on players to have x receptions or more. They'll bet on a QB to have xxx number
of passing yards or TD passes. They'll often do so to the point that it forces
the sportsbook to move the lines so much that it creates tremendous value on the
other side of those props. Make a chart and track the line moves on props.
You'll likely find some good wagers, going opposite those moves. Might even find
some middles and scalps.

As far as the game itself, these two teams have almost identical yards per
point numbers, with both being very good defensively. Both have great turnover
margin numbers with the Steelers at +16 and the Packers at +13. They both
outscored their opponents on average by a score of 25-15. They both average
about 4 yards per rush and 12 yards per pass completion. The biggest
difference statistically looks to be in rushing defense where the Steelers are
#1 in the NFL at 62 yards per game and the Packers are #11 at 108.

But remember, the Packers have had trouble running the ball all year long.
The have a pass first offense. What doesn't show up in the stats are the short
passes that are just as effective as a run, ala Peyton Manning and the Colts.

A strong case can be made for either team, so that's what we'll do.....

The Steelers: In making a case for the Steelers to win this game, we'd focus
on the rushing game and the experience angle. The team figures to be better
prepared and figures to handle the Super Bowl and all that comes with it, better
than the team with just about zero experience. Aside from the experience,
football games are won and lost in the trenches, particularly with how well a
team can run the ball and stop the run. The Steelers do both, better than their
opponent. Success with the running game for the Steelers opens up the passing
game. In this scenario, expect huge games from Rashard Mendenhall and Ben
Roethlisberger as well as the Steelers secondary as the Packers get desperate.
If this scenario plays out, a double digit Steelers win is likely.

The Packers: The case for the Packers lies with QB Aaron Rodgers and a
Packers offense that is built for speed. Who needs a running game when you have
5 receivers to choose from with at least one or two of them open every play?
Playing inside in Dallas, with the roof closed, should be a big edge for the
Packers speedy receivers. The Packers were just 2-2 in domes this year but
outscored their opponents 99-51 and played one full half without Rodgers due to
a concussion. If the Packers can slow down Mendenhall and the pass rush can keep
Roethlisberger on his toes and rushed then it could be a big day for the Packers
secondary.

Which scenario is it going to be? Flip a coin. This game will be decided by
things you can't predict. An unsung hero who has the game of his life. A huge
turnover at a key juncture that creates a momentum run that steam rolls. A big
special teams play, etc. etc.

From a hunch standpoint, it seems as though it may just be Aaron Rodgers
time. He has emerged as one of the top QB's in the game today after sitting
behind Brett Favre for years. He is on the verge of "Super Star Status". All
that's missing, is a Super Bowl ring. If the lack of a running game was a
factor, they wouldn't ne here in the first place. Fact is, they have a running
game. It just doesn't show up in the stats. To find their running game, you'd
have to create a new stat category for short passes.

Everything is in place for the Packers to do well here. They should be able
to move the ball on this fast surface. Rodgers should find open receivers all
day long. After all, they have already moved the ball against some pretty good
defensive units here in the playoffs under much worse playing conditions.
Defensively they are every bit as good as the Steelers.

This is not a Key Release, but we won't wimp out and not take a stand one way
or the other. We're going to go ahead and take the Packers here in a game that
should be close most of the way.

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