As the Rockies nose-dived in September, general manager Dan O'Dowd admitted the team has to draft better.This winter has been a painful reminder of missed picks, continuing Thursday as the Rockies traded pitcher Greg Reynolds, the No. 2 overall selection in 2006, to the Rangers for minor-league first baseman Chad Tracy, son of manager Jim Tracy."This was in Greg's best interes...

I'm re-posting Michael T.'s comment from the earlier version of this column on the Reynolds trade as it is very informative. It was bad enough to grind on the miss with Evan Longoria but the added context of "what could have been" is even worse and may continue to this day.

Dan O'Dowd admitted the team has to draft better??? In other news, the Captain of the Titanic was quoted posthumously as saying they could have done a better job of navigating around the iceberg...

Michael T's post:

I remember the Rockies saying there is only one third-base and with Atkins and Stewart in the fold, they had no room for Evan Longoria.

Yet the Rockies chose the big-bodied Reynolds over Pac-10 star Tim Lincecum, whom the Rockies must have thought was going to break down due to his smallish frame and wild delivery. Pedro Martinez was slight of build too and the Dodgers had similar concerns. The Rockies and Dodgers can now commiserate on those decisions.

To be honest, I would have passed on Lincecum too, so I'm just as guilty. The guy I was salivating over was Clayton Kershaw, who looks like he has the body and game to last for close to two decades and quite possibly end up in Cooperstown.

Reynolds was not seen as a potential top-of-the-rotation guy but the Rockies took him anyway. Stanford turns out some pretty nice quarterbacks once in a while in the Elway's and Luck's but starting pitchers of theirs usually bomb, with the exceptions being Mike Mussina and to a far lesser degree, Jeremy Guthrie.

The Rockies with Kershaw, Chacin and Pomeranz to build around with De La Rosa, Nicasio too, with Chad Bettis coming and Alex White still a prospect despite his horrible debut season? That's pretty desirable.

Think Lincecum or Longoria would look good in Denver.

You can't blow the second overall pick in a year with elite talent.

The Rockies may have made another regrettable mistake in 2011, passing on star prep bat Josh Bell, who said he wouldn't sign, but did with, of all teams, Pittsburgh. The Rockies chose a pitcher, Tyler Anderson, who they compared to Jeff Francis, who had one standout season and is considered journeyman quality.

Close the chapter on Reynolds. Nevertheless, he was not the reach that some people are claiming with 20/20 hindsight. He shot up the board that spring and he fit the profile the Rockies were looking for: big and durable with a heavy sinker. Go back and find the scout rankings. He was right there with the top pitchers, and only Longoria and Andrew Miller were considered to be better at that pick. Also, look at all the misses up and down the board. The Rox now have the 13th pick in Tyler Colvin--a bust in Chicago.

It turned out Reynolds was not durable and his reinvention as a finesse pitcher isn't adequate to be a dominant starter. He can probably still be an effective pitcher, but he has three good innings followed by a meltdown (much like Clayton Mortensen). When the wheels fall off, you need to figure out a way to minimize the damage.

You can't blame any team for passing on Lincicum--he was a blown-out arm waiting to happen and that's why team after team looked elsewhere. Good for him that he has proved to be the exception so far. I was surprised to hear O'Dowd admit that he should have taken Longoria. I thought it was pretty defensible to take a pitcher after having drafted Stewart, Nelson and Tulo in successive first rounds. I'm not buying the "should have drafted Kershaw" line, however. He was clearly behind Miller and Reynolds on draft day and was thought to be only the second-best high school pitcher behind Kyle Drabek.

In the end it doesn't matter because you make your pick and hope for the best, even if it's a guy like Longoria or Lincicum. Reynolds was a bust just like many others at the top of the '06 draft, and when you get a string of busts the team will suffer immensely and the GM will lose his job unless it is followed up with a string of successes. Rex Brothers is a good start, but if Matzek, Wheeler and Kyle Parker don't work out, O'Dowd will be pounding the pavement.