During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.

To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.

The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

Many think that in the post-GFC world it’s all about extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus, so cycles are old hat and investors don’t need to watch them. That’s just not true.

The chart shows how market corrections cluster around cyclical slowdowns, one of which is taking place right now. The shaded areas mark off periods of decelerating economic growth.

That’s why, in late August with the markets ramping up in the face of our slowdown call, we said the risk of market corrections was high. Today, with growth set to slow further, we cannot offer a green light just yet.

During the interview, ECRI evidence of the current slowdown is discussed, including analysis of GDP, GDI and GDPplus.