Thursday, October 15, 2015

NCAAF 2015: BIG 12 & CONFERENCE USA BREAKDOWN THROUGH WEEK SIX

Once per week I will be taking a deeper dive on two
conferences using my SBPI (SportsBoss Power Index) as a basis.

In the second installment I will be breaking down the Big 12
& CUSA conferences; the Big 12 as a whole ranks 6th (worst of
the Power 5 conferences & lower than the Independents too) according to
SBPI while CUSA checks in at 10th which is the 2nd worst
conference ranking in the country only ahead of the Sun Belt.

Let’s start with the Big 12 (teams sorted based on
strength/rank):

RECORDS

Team

SBPI

Rank

Overall

Conf

WEST VIRGINIA

249.0

6

3-2

0-2

TCU

246.4

9

6-0

3-0

OKLAHOMA STATE

220.1

22

6-0

3-0

OKLAHOMA

203.2

33

4-1

1-1

BAYLOR

202.9

36

5-0

2-0

KANSAS STATE

185.8

51

3-2

0-2

TEXAS TECH

171.1

67

4-2

1-2

IOWA STATE

145.9

89

2-3

1-1

TEXAS

128.7

99

2-4

1-2

KANSAS

73.6

124

0-5

0-2

The Big 12 basically has four tiers of teams according to
current SBPI rankings:

·Tier One: West Virginia, TCU, Oklahoma State,
Oklahoma & Baylor

·Tier Two: Kansas State & Texas Tech

·Tier Three: Iowa State & Texas

·Tier Four: Kansas

Their tier analysis isn’t as clear cut compared to some
other conferences we have seen but I think many believe the winner of the
conference will be one of the five teams in Tier One – whoever that may be.

Taking my analysis a step further I have input my current
SBPI POWER RATING (not shown here but correlates directly to the SBPI rating
shown above) & played out the season for each team – the margin my SBPI
POWER RATING calculates directly relates to an estimated “win percentage” for
each game.Based on those calculations
here are the projected end of year standings (sorted by same method above, SBPI
rating which shows the impact SOS & YTD record has):

PROJECTION

OVERALL

CONFERENCE

Team

WINS

LOSSES

WINS

LOSSES

WEST VIRGINIA

8.7

3.3

5.7

3.3

TCU

10.4

1.6

7.4

1.6

OKLAHOMA STATE

10.3

1.7

7.3

1.7

OKLAHOMA

8.2

3.8

5.2

3.8

BAYLOR

8.7

3.3

5.7

3.3

KANSAS STATE

7.2

4.8

4.2

4.8

TEXAS TECH

6.6

5.4

3.6

5.4

IOWA STATE

3.4

8.6

2.4

6.6

TEXAS

3.8

8.2

2.8

6.2

KANSAS

0.2

11.8

0.2

8.8

We see despite West Virginia rating favorably in the SBPI
currently they are projected to finish 4th in the conference
(rounding to second decimal place has OU at 5.74 wins vs. West Virginia at
5.71).

Let’s look at that matrix now sorted by the final conference
standings:

PROJECTION

OVERALL

CONFERENCE

Team

WINS

LOSSES

WINS

LOSSES

TCU

10.4

1.6

7.4

1.6

OKLAHOMA STATE

10.3

1.7

7.3

1.7

BAYLOR

8.7

3.3

5.7

3.3

WEST VIRGINIA

8.7

3.3

5.7

3.3

OKLAHOMA

8.2

3.8

5.2

3.8

KANSAS STATE

7.2

4.8

4.2

4.8

TEXAS TECH

6.6

5.4

3.6

5.4

TEXAS

3.8

8.2

2.8

6.2

IOWA STATE

3.4

8.6

2.4

6.6

KANSAS

0.2

11.8

0.2

8.8

TCU is our projected Big 12 winner narrowly edging out
Oklahoma State by 0.13 wins.Prior to
the season we projected Oklahoma State as a surprise Big 12 winner largely
based on their schedule where they face TCU, Baylor & Oklahoma at
home.The conference champion will be
determined in November when the main combatants face off against each other in
a round robin – it’s very interesting almost all these games take place in the
month of November, making next month must watch TV in the Big 12.Oklahoma State has just two remaining road
games: Texas Tech (perhaps a tougher test than many expected during the summer)
& Iowa State (which the Cowboys know all to well about how tough the trip
to Ames can be: see the 2011 loss when OKST was ranked #2 in country; also this
year’s trip to ISU comes between hosting TCU & Baylor – can you say
sandwich?); if the ‘Boys can get through those two games without a loss it’s
all there for their taking.TCU, the
current projected winner, also has a trip to Ames (up next) along with road
games at Oklahoma State & Oklahoma, neither of which will be easy.Baylor is probably surprising to many,
projecting them in 3rd place with three losses & well behind the
top two – so let’s take a more detailed look at the Bears.Baylor still has road games against Kansas
State (never ever easy, ask TCU), Oklahoma State & a revenge-minded TCU –
multiple losses there is likely in my opinion (the SBPI model projects their
record for those three games as 0.95-2.05, or 1-2 rounded); toss in home games
against WVU, OU & Texas and their schedule is not easy, especially with a
defense that ranks in the bottom half of FBS football (yes they have put up
insane numbers offensively but to date they have faced the 117th
ranked schedule in FBS – very easy to date so how will they respond when the
opponents get A LOT tougher in conference play?).For those reasons I do not see Baylor being a
legitimate threat to win the conference despite many (all?) of my peers having
the Bears ranked in the top handful of teams currently.

According to my analysis here I project the 10-2 TCU Horned
Frogs to win the Big 12 – but if it plays out like that, and a 2 loss team wins
the conference (which is entirely possible with the strength of teams at the
top and tough obscure road games outside Kansas) they will likely be left out
of the CFB Playoff once again, even in a year where a 2 loss team has a very
good shot at making it.

Next up let’s move to Conference USA and start with the “stronger”
of the two divisions: the seven team East which is ranked 14th of
the 16 divisions in FBS football (teams sorted based on strength/rank):

RECORDS

Team

SBPI

Rank

Overall

Conf

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

189.7

48

2-4

1-1

WESTERN KENTUCKY

168.5

68

5-1

3-0

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

149.5

87

3-3

1-1

MARSHALL

130.6

97

5-1

2-0

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

126.8

101

1-4

1-1

CHARLOTTE

103.1

113

2-3

0-2

OLD DOMINION

85.0

118

2-3

0-1

The CUSA East can be broken into three tiers according to
current SBPI ratings:

Here are the projected standings derived from following same
procedure discussed above (sorted based on SBPI rank):

PROJECTION

OVERALL

CONFERENCE

Team

WINS

LOSSES

WINS

LOSSES

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

6.6

5.4

5.6

2.4

WESTERN KENTUCKY

9.0

3.0

6.9

1.1

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

6.4

5.6

4.4

3.6

MARSHALL

7.7

4.3

4.7

3.3

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

3.6

8.4

3.6

4.4

CHARLOTTE

4.3

7.7

2.2

5.8

OLD DOMINION

3.9

8.1

1.9

6.1

Similar to the Big 12 we can see the impact SOS has on the
projected standings; Middle Tennessee is currently ranked as the best team in
this conference
however they also are forecasted to finish in 2nd place in their division
& with the 3rd highest win total in their conference – showing
how key SOS is, as we all know but it’s also interesting to see that phenomenon
layered into a quantitative analysis.

With that in mind let’s now look at that matrix sorted by
the final division standings:

PROJECTION

OVERALL

CONFERENCE

Team

WINS

LOSSES

WINS

LOSSES

WESTERN KENTUCKY

9.0

3.0

6.9

1.1

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

6.6

5.4

5.6

2.4

MARSHALL

7.7

4.3

4.7

3.3

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

6.4

5.6

4.4

3.6

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

3.6

8.4

3.6

4.4

CHARLOTTE

4.3

7.7

2.2

5.8

OLD DOMINION

3.9

8.1

1.9

6.1

Our projected winner of the East is Western Kentucky; a team
that many college football fans would likely agree appears to be the best team
in this division & likely the best team in the conference as a whole.WKU blew out MTSU last week 58-28 exposing
the one blatant weakness of the Blue Raiders – their pass defense.That result further supports the idea they
are in fact the best team in this division, while for MTSU is was partially the
fact it was a terrible matchup for them.WKU has three remaining road games on their conference slate: North
Texas (the worst team in FBS football according to SBPI), Old Dominion (ranked
118th in FBS and the worst team in this division) & Florida
International – which is a big reason it’s unlikely they are caught &
likely make their first appearance in the CUSA Championship Game.

Shifting to the weakest division in FBS football, the West
division of Conference USA, here is a matrix breakdown of those six teams:

RECORDS

Team

SBPI

Rank

Overall

Conf

LOUISIANA TECH

185.3

53

4-2

2-1

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

150.5

86

3-3

1-1

RICE

130.3

98

3-3

2-1

UTSA

124.7

102

1-5

1-1

UTEP

89.9

117

2-4

0-2

NORTH TEXAS

50.5

128

0-5

0-2

CUSA East tier analysis:

·Tier One: Louisiana Tech

·Tier Two: Southern Mississippi, Rice & UTSA

·Tier Three: UTEP & North Texas

Looking at those SBPI rankings it’s clear why it’s the worst
division in college football: no teams ranked in Top 50, just one in the Top
85, and it’s home to the worst team in college football North Texas who was
BLOWN OUT AT HOME 66-7 to not Alabama, nor TCU – PORTLAND STATE this past
Saturday!Yikes.

Here are the projected standings derived from following same
procedure discussed above (sorted based on SBPI rank):

PROJECTION

OVERALL

CONFERENCE

Team

WINS

LOSSES

WINS

LOSSES

LOUISIANA TECH

8.1

3.9

5.9

2.1

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

6.9

5.1

4.9

3.1

RICE

6.1

5.9

4.6

3.4

UTSA

4.1

7.9

4.1

3.9

UTEP

4.0

8.0

2.0

6.0

NORTH TEXAS

0.6

11.4

0.6

7.4

Based on the SBPI ratings shown in the first matrix of this
East division breakdown it comes as no surprise Louisiana Tech is the projected
winner; the 1.0 wins margin may seem narrow – however considering they face
Southern Mississippi at home in their final game of the regular season there is
little to no chance they do not represent the East in the Conference USA
Championship Game.

I currently project The CUSA Championship Game to feature
9-3 Western Kentucky vs. 8-4 Louisiana Tech with the winner likely receiving a
bid to the Liberty Bowl.Those teams
already played this year, on September 10 (Wk2) with the Hilltoppers coming out
a 41-38 winner at home; if the two meet again the game is played at the team
with the better conference record (with WKU having the tiebreaker between these
two teams due to the head to head win) so it’s likely they would face off again
in Bowling Green & I would give the slight edge today to Louisiana Tech as
the Bulldogs want revenge for their early season head to head loss & to
make up for last year’s tough loss to Marshall in the championship game.

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