Takahashi made a bold statement at Japanese Nationals. I am not as sure as I once was that Joubert and his three quads will rule the day. Both Takahashi and Lambiel have better presentation, and they will do at least one quad if not two. Right now I think those three have the inside track for the podium.

IMHO we haven't seen enough of Stephane lately to judge the success of his battle with injuries. Even more so with Jeffrey Buttle. At this moment I don't think there will be room on the podium for either Lysacek or Weir.

Takahashi made a bold statement at Japanese Nationals. I am not as sure as I once was that Joubert and his three quads will rule the day. Both Takahashi and Lambiel have better presentation, and they will do at least one quad if not two. Right now I think those three have the inside track for the podium.

IMHO we haven't seen enough of Stephane lately to judge the success of his battle with injuries. Even more so with Jeffrey Buttle. At this moment I don't think there will be room on the podium for either Lysacek or Weir.

JMO.

After viewing some of the Japanese nationals on YouTube - including Takahashi's LP, I couldn't agree with you more. The only question re: Lambiel is how is he injury wise?

So you honestly think a score awarded at Japanese Nationals is a legitimate score? I live to see the day Takahashi scores that like that outside Japan, or even outside Nationals. I could bring up alot of skaters scores from Nationals that were as much or even more ridiculous though. I remember the Italians posting scores at their Nationals last year that would have won the Olympic Gold in a cakewalk, and Belbin/Agosto would have won the gold by a landslide with their Nationals scores.

Anyway even though I am a Lambiel fan I think he has no chance this year. His skating at Swiss Nationals was awful for a World Champion, there just isnt enough time for him to get his act together by Worlds.

I think it will be Joubert winning this year unless he bombs. Takahashi has the inside track on 2nd or 1st if Joubert flames out.
Oda will probably be 3rd. If Lambiel, or even Buttle recover from their injuries enough they could crash the podium though, especialy Lambiel. Lysacek's consistency and determination means he will be there to pick up the pieces if it turns into a "last man standing" sort of thing. No chance at all for Weir or Sandhu this year.

Many of the poor performances at the GPF, including the men's, were due to Russian flu. The GPF has never been a good prognisticator of how things will go at Worlds anway. The GPF comes at the end of a busy early season when skaters have been working the kinks out of their FSs. Sometimes the GPF competitors are tired from the close scheduling of their competitions and the sometimes lengthy travels.

After Nationals and Euros/4CC, the skaters will have two months to polish and refine their programs, with no intervening competitions and hectic traveling. So Worlds will be a whole new ballgame and nobody will be "out of it".

ETA: Nationals scores are indeed inflated, and no one---the ISU judges included---are impressed by them. However, Worlds is being held in Japan this year, so the Japanese men will have home ice advantage. The top men are very close, so any advantage has to be taken seriously.

Lambiel and Weir were not at the GPF though. Well Weir was but only skated the short program, injured himself, and had to withdraw. I dont think Lambiel is in huge trouble, and Weir looks out of it based on the GPF. Their performances this year are not up to what Joubert, a more consistent Takahashi, Oda, or even Lysacek are doing. We are halfway through the season, they need to be skating better then they are now.

ETA: Nationals scores are indeed inflated, and no one---the ISU judges included---are impressed by them. However, Worlds is being held in Japan this year, so the Japanese men will have home ice advantage. The top men are very close, so any advantage has to be taken seriously.

Yeah that is true, I keep forgetting Worlds are in Japan for some reason. I did not really believe the scores at NHK even after seeing the performances, some may disagree with me I know but I couldnt imagine those scores for the same performances anywhere else personaly. Do you think Worlds will be similar to NHK in the advantage the singles contenders can expect in scoring.

Lambiel and Weir were not at the GPF though. Well Weir was but only skated the short program, injured himself, and had to withdraw. I dont think Lambiel is in huge trouble, and Weir looks out of it based on the GPF. Their performances this year are not up to what Joubert, a more consistent Takahashi, Oda, or even Lysacek are doing. We are halfway through the season, they need to be skating better then they are now.

Why does Weir look "out of it" and Lysacek not? From what I have heard, Lysacek has the more serious injury.

I think Lambiel is in trouble if it is his knee that caused him to drop out of his second GP event. If he can't land all his jumps---including the 3A---he is in trouble if Takahashi and Joubert are in top condition.

Why does Weir look "out of it" and Lysacek not? From what I have heard, Lysacek has the more serious injury.

I think Lambiel is in trouble if it is his knee that caused him to drop out of his second GP event. If he can't land all his jumps---including the 3A---he is in trouble if Takahashi and Joubert are in top condition.

By "out of it" I mean out as far as being a serious medal threat at Worlds this year. As for Lysacek vs Weir I think Lysacek has much more of a shot this year becuase his long program consistency over the last 12 months or so has been exceptional. He is regularly scoring in the 150+ range in the long program and skating his best. He has problems in the short but eventualy he will have to do a clean short which in theory should be alot easier to do then a clean long. I am assuming the best and that both recover from their injuries enough to skate at Worlds. Lysacek has just shown much more as far as his consistently strong international performances, and sheer will and determination, and ability to put together a COP-friendly exceptionaly cleanly skated long program. You know that is not bias, I am no Evan fan that is for sure.

Lambiel scored a 133 in the long program at his own Swiss Nationals, that is 13 points lower then he scored at Skate Canada where he had atleast 4 major mistakes in the long program. Jamal Othman beat him on the technical score in the long program. So I agree he is in big trouble and I am very pesstimistic now what to expect from him the rest of this season.

I hear what you are saying and don't disagree with Nationals scores seeming inflated. However, Takahashi is simply way more consistent this year than last, particularly in jumps; he is better in his jumps in that he is only rarely landing up on the toe, AND his footwork is awesome, choreo (in the LP) great, competitive nerves seem very under control, and I could gush on. I'm simply saying that I believe he has arrived competively and is now a serious threat to others including Joubert...but not because of Japanese nationals scores, rather because of how he skated. I would love to see Brian skate lights out with the three quads and I would be delighted if he wins worlds, I just think that as things stand at the moment, he has competition from what might have been unexpected sources for some.

PS - i would love to see Lambiel, Weir, Lysacek skate great without injury too; and if Eman could put down two clean ones, and so one -- meaning there really is a large number of incredibly talented men in the top 12 or so; not all seem in equally fine competitive (physical and mental) state at the moment.

I agree that Lambiel needs to get in better shape or maybe just miss this upcoming Worlds. He shouldn't skate again if the knee injury is still acting up. He has to think long-term - Vancouver 2010 is his big goal.

Also, I agree that both Oda and Takahashi had way inflated scores at NHK, as did Asada on the women's side. It seems like all throughout this season judges are going nuts with Level 4's (remember when they used to be special and hard to find) and scores in general... it's ridiculous! They really NEED to have separate technical and program compontents panels.

I think front-runners for Worlds are Joubert (strong favorite and I'm confident he'll pull off at least 2 quads), Takahashi, Oda, and Lambiel if healthy. I want to still believe in Buttle and I hope he can come back with consistent jumps... **** the quad for now. Weir has been pitiful all season long and is so far from his form of 2 years ago when he was beautiful on the ice and had killer clean jumps. I don't see him being a threat. And Lysacek has been consistent with his LP, but I think he'll only get on the podim again if others in front of him mess up because he's not as dynamic or talented. Also, will introducing a new LP mid-season be good for him? He won't get much practice time with it before Worlds. However, it is a fresh change because I think we're all sick of the same Carmen that he doesn't skate with passion anymore.