The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

Two disjunct populations of the Hutton’s Vireo occur in the U.S. One is along the West Coast, the other in the Desert Southwest. Despite these birds’ isolation and physical differences, their habitats are similar: sunny oak woodlands. Audubon's climate model anticipates a 72 percent loss of current summer range by 2080, with some potential expansion east and north during the winter. But given that this vireo is sedentary in its range, it is unlikely that the species will track winter climate change east; the bird would also need an increase in suitable summer climate, something not predicted by the model. Unresolved is the relative apportionment of predicted range shifts for the coastal versus interior subspecies.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.