Rosenthal On Hamilton, Hart, Pagan, Indians

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports spoke with agents and rival executives about where Josh Hamilton might land and the Nationals, Phillies, Mariners, and Orioles often came up in conversation. The Phillies would appear to be a stretch for both financial and baseball reasons, but two industry sources say the club is quietly checking in on him. It was reported earlier this week that the O's are targeting Hamilton but Rosenthal would be surprised if owner Peter Angelos, who emphasizes that his GMs find him players with a history of good conduct, can be talked into it. Here's more from Rosenthal..

The Brewers are discussing a new deal with first baseman/right fielder Corey Hart. The 30-year-old is seeking a three-year extension but the Brewers might prefer to give him two more years while increasing his 2013 salary. Hart is under contract for one more season at $10MM.

Giants GM Brian Sabean expressed confidence that the team would re-sign free agents Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro, and Jeremy Affeldt. Meanwhile, sources say that other teams are more aggressive than the Giants on Pagan right now.

while they’d be very left handed with Hamilton, his splits against LHP for his career are still pretty respectable (.280/.327/.481 – .808 OPS vs .959 OPS against RHP). Also, Utley’s career numbers vs. LHP are pretty close to what he’s done vs. RHP (.856 OPS vs. .886 OPS). Howard’s numbers vs. LHP are terrible, though – .739 OPS and K’s once every 2.5 ABs or so. He has a career 1.005 OPS vs. RHP.

Yeah, I agree. Never understood why a lefty-heavy lineup would be so bad anyway. I believe most pitchers in the MLB are right-handed anyway and the focus should be on value, not trying to balance your lineup with righties and lefties. But the Phils are much more balanced than they used to be.

I smell a RAJ special here, going with a contract that has a team option with large buyout (a la Lee and Howard). Thinking he throws a 4/110M offer w/5th year team option ($10M buyout). 25/25/25/25 w/25/10 option.

Hamilton played 89 games in 09, 133 in 10, 121 in 11 and 148 in 12. Granted, he killed it when he was healthy. My biggest issue as a phillies fan isn’t the years, or the dollars, or even surrendering the 16th pick, its the fact that between Hamilton, Howard and Utley in the middle, I don’t know if you get 75 games TOTAL all season when all three are in the lineup together.

That’s certainly a legitimate concern, one I have as well, although it wouldn’t be my #1 concern. (My #1 concern is the addiction problems, they don’t go away and Philadelphia isn’t the best market for someone with those problems).

I’d rather they not re-sign Hart from a financial standpoint. Whatever he resigns for (>$10 mil) will be far greater than what Aoki and Morris (if ready in 2014) will make combined.

From a production point of view, Hart wants to stay in Milwaukee and may take a discount to stay. We’ll have to wait and see what Swisher signs for to see how much Hart is worth on the open market, because they are pretty comparable players overall.

Scutaro will probably the easiest of the 3 to sign. 2yr/12 should do it. Basically just giving him Freddy Sanchez contract. Pagan is going to be overpaid. and with the League contract, Affeldt probably will too.

IMO Pagan will be underpaid. If you average his 2-year WAR, 4-year WAR, and career WAR (all averaged for 150 games), you get an average of 3.3 WAR. That formula takes into account that the recent past is more important than the far past and I believe it’s accurate. If you’d agree that Pagan is a 3.3 WAR player (which I think most people looking deep into stats would agree with), he should get $15M/year according to the $4.5M/1 WAR rule.

Shut down the Silver Slugger? They might have to bat Stras 7th! I would assume a Hamilton signing means they go in house of bargain basement on the #5 starter…so the Nats rotation would be;
1. Stras
2. Gio
3. JZim
4. Detwiler
5. Garcia/Gorzo/etc
Also putting Morse at 1B for ’13 gives Rizzo the option to trading him or letting him walk for ’14 to bring up Rendon (who I thnk will eventually play 1B in Washington – NOT 3B).

As big as Scutaro was this year his age scares me off. 1-2 year contract tops. Don’t want another Huff to happen. As for Pagan, he’s gonna get paid nicely. Just hope it’s still by the Giants. Affeldt should get a healthy raise too. And with Rowand, Huff and F. Sanchez off the books it’ll give them some wiggle room to keep these guys. Now the real question is should they bring back Melky?

Huff was a two year deal as well. They don’t want another Rowand-like deal with Scutaro. I would personally love to see Melky back but it seems very unlikely because the brass doesn’t want to be known as the ped franchise, especially with championships to defend.

Peter Angelos, who emphasizes that his GMs find him players with a history of good conduct, can be talked into it.. AHHH good conduct. I guess when Albert Belle ran over the Brewers second baseman with a forearm to the head… this was determined to be good citizenship? Josh Hamilton never did that.

I would imagine the Indians would want more cost controlled players back. In terms of value that is a very equal trade, but the Indians won’t be able to resign Ells…I also think that if they trade them all it would be in separate deals to maximize the returns.

I agree with the other comments on here – the Indians would probably be looking for either longer-controlled players or young, MLB-ready talent that they can retain for cheap for some years. I think Bailey and Salty would be a good fit, but I’m sure they would want Middlebrooks/Brentz/De La Rosa. Teams like Oakland/Cleveland/Toronto thrive on talented and MLB-ready young players before they hit arbitration/FA.

So, essentially a downgrade for Cleveland in every department with the possible exception of SP? Maybe if Ellsbury and Bailey weren’t constantly on the DL this trade would even up a bit. As it stands though, I’d rather have Choo than Ellsbury; Cabrera than Igelsias; Perez than Bailey; and definitely Santana than Saltalamacchia.

Indians are basically saying to their fans – don’t bother attending because we will be horrendous in ’13 and ’14. Check back in during ’15. Still have no idea why Francona took that job in particular. Maybe he figures they bottom out next year & with some smart trades can be a contender in 2 years. Couldn’t have paid him as much as he made in Boston at $4M/year. Going to be the guy who gets blamed too when the Indians are don’t even win 70 games the next 2 years too.

Pretty much, but running treadmill clearly is not a long-term solution. Load up your farm system at least while you can. You can get older,MLB-ready guys with trades and younger players through the draft. That will set them up better than keeping Cabrera/JM/Choo/Perez and going 77-85 the next three years and then blowing after.

And there’s always the chance that you trade away your “best” players and the guys you get in return are just as good or even better. Oakland 2012.

Understand to a degree on why Cleveland is doing what they are doing. Just don’t understand why Francona took that job in particular. They are going to need to have some real luck on trade returns to be a contender in 2 years. In the interim, they will likely have sub $50M payrolls and the owners can bank on collecting luxury tax transfer revenues to made a tidy annual operating budget. If they reinvest that in draft picks and organizational development, we’ll see

I understand what the Indians are doing and understand why Francona took the job. No, the Indians won’t have sub $50M payrolls forever but now is not the time to add money. This Indians team is very flawed and they need to move some pieces around. It won’t be a total rebuild; Brantley, Chisenhall, Kipnis, and Santana will still be here, but this team didn’t win anything the past two years and attendance has been horrible so what do they have to lose? Francona will get his veterans in free agency and will keep them in the hunt down the stretch while developing and bringing along these younger guys for future seasons.

The future is much brighter in Cleveland as long as Shapiro and Antonnetti maximize the returns on these players going forward.

Yeah I think if you move a few guys and get MLB-ready players back, and then you sign low-cost veterans who can still play, Francona will have a team to work with and prove that he can still manage with the best of them. Swapping Cabera, Perez, Choo, and Masterson for four young, talented players, you’re probably dropping from 9 WAR to 6 WAR realistically. That’s a 3-win difference for the season while the future is waaaaay brighter.

Cabrera and Choo could bring back potentially four MLB-ready, high-caliber players by themselves, while Perez and Masterson could bring back 2 MLB-ready players and 2 low-level prospects.

I still can’t believe all these teams interested in Hamilton…unless they think they’ll sign him for a 2-3 year deal…then they are delusional. The Rangers already got Hamilton’s prime years and the fact that they aren’t pushing hard to keep him should be a red flag to other teams.

I would like the Braves to get Corey Hart, affordable contract, 1 year 10 million left, Brewers get prospects(maybe a Randall Delgado) and clear up money for Josh Hamilton. Hamilton could play RF or 1B, Gomez and Aoki in CF, or move him to 1B, Aoki in RF, Gomez in CF.