Buerkle, Maffei rematch rated among most competitive House races in the nation

Stephen D. Cannerelli / The Post-StandardDan Maffei, a Democrst from DeWitt, listens to a point being made by Republican Ann Marie Buerkle, during a debate in October 2010 at YNN Studios in East Syracuse.

Washington -- One of the first national rankings of the top House races for the 2012 election lists U.S. Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle’s congressional seat as the 6th most likely in the nation to change hands in November.

The National Journal's Hotline looked at all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and created a list of the 75 most competitive races this year.

The publication also ranked the rematch between Buerkle and former Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei in the new 24th Congressional District as the third most likely House seat to be captured by a Democrat.

The National Journal wrote: “Ex-Rep. Dan Maffei is running like an incumbent in this 2010 rematch, and with good reason: Redistricting left this district with a pronounced Democratic lean.”

That may come as a surprise to those who see the newly-drawn 24th District has about 3,300 more enrolled Republican voters than Democrats. But political insiders view previous presidential elections as a better indicator of how districts “perform” in an election. In the 24th District, President Barack Obama had 57 percent of the vote in 2008.

The National Journal rankings also note that Buerkle, the most conservative House member in New York, “won in 2010 by harnessing voters’ anger about the economy and health care reform, but she hasn’t made many attempts to accommodate the district’s Democratic-leaning electorate while in Congress.”

The rankings, to be updated monthly, are based in part on public and private polling and the fundraising abilities of the candidates. As of the start of July, Maffei had about $115,000 more cash in his campaign account than Buerkle.

Mark Weiner’s Washington Notebook appears Sunday in The Post-Standard. He can be reached at mweiner@syracuse.com or 571-970-3751.