France election 2012: where on earth is François Bayrou?

Back in 2007, the candidate for the centrist Modem party was the "third man" of France's presidential elections, cruising past the far-Right National Front candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen and at one stage threatening to knock out Socialist Ségolène Royal.

Judging by the polls, the Bayrou comet stands no chance of entering the presidential atmosphere in 2012Photo: AP

The eloquent historian who rears horses in his native Béarn is the best-loved presidential candidate, with a 70 per cent approval rating, but, paradoxically, this time Bayrou's "tractor power", his earthy integrity, is not translating into voting intentions.

Libération on Monday likened him to a curious "comet" that every five years seeks to "cut France's electoral sky precisely down its middle". It never succeeds but sometimes manages a close fly-past.

Judging by the polls, the Bayrou comet stands no chance of entering the presidential atmosphere in 2012. Two of the latest polls put him in fifth place on 10-12 per cent of the vote – not bad but nothing like the 18.6 per cent he mustered last time round.

And yet things looked good in January, when his first-round score jumped from 7 per cent to 12 per cent. With Nicolas Sarkozy veering to the Right to attract National Front votes, and François Hollande to the Left, Bayrou looked well-placed to mop up the centre. With Sarkozy looking weak, he claimed to be the "only man capable of beating Hollande".

So why isn't the magic working this time round?

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In 2007, the French warmed to his virulently anti-establishment rhetoric that observers branded "the extreme centre". It involved bashing the links between media and big business and taking the moral high ground while promoting centre-Right economics with a more Left-leaning social agenda.

This time, the French prefer Jean-Luc Mélénchon, the tub-thumping ex-Trotskyist and ex-Socialist, who a poll on Sunday put in third place on 15 per cent, ahead of the FN's Marine Le Pen, on 13.5 per cent.

In 2007, Bayrou shouted loudest that France was living above its means.

Today, the euro crisis has forced all candidates to tone down spending plans. Sarkozy today announced his intention to make 115 billion euros in savings if re-elected.

Last time round, many Left-leaning centrists couldn't hack the idea of voting for the flaky Ségolène Royal. But many are happy to vote François Hollande.

Despite all this, Bayrou's role, even if diminished, is likely to remain crucial as potential kingmaker for round two.

Still well behind Hollande in the forecast outcome of the run-off, Sarkozy cannot hope to win without a major chunk of Bayrou's votes. To this end, the Sarko camp has dangled several carrots in his direction, including the prospect of being prime minister. Threatened by the rise of Mélenchon, Hollande, meanwhile, could decide to propose a coalition with Bayrou to cement centrist support in the run-off.

The man himself refuses to be drawn on round two, angrily telling reporters on Saturday: "I won't dip the tip of the nail of my little finger into such speculation!"

But given his lack of parliamentary support, if he sits on the fence, he risks falling, as Libé nicely put it, into the "tiny black whole of political antimatter that is centrism" for good.