Playoff CFL Pick & Prediction: Edmonton at Winnipeg

The late game in the CFL playoffs is an interesting one that features a pair of 12-6 teams in Edmonton and Winnipeg. The betting public loves the Eskimos and they are 3-point road favorites with a total of 55.5. We looked at the early game between Saskatchewan and Ottawa here.

The weather is expected to be cold for this one, with a temperature in the 20s at game time, which probably explains why the total has dropped from 56 to 55.5 and two-thirds of the bets have come in on the under.

The question coming into the game was if Matt Nichols would be able to go at quarterback for the Bombers and he was officially named the starter Saturday morning, although Winnipeg has known all along he would be ready to go. It’s been a bit hectic for Nichols recently, as not only was he injured, but his wife gave birth Friday morning, so he’s had plenty of deal with.

Winnipeg still has some injury problems, however, most notably wide receiver Darvin Adams, who some may remember from his days at Auburn, is out of the game after having his best season in the CFL, catching 76 passes for 1,120 yards and seven touchdowns. Linebacker Mo Leggett is also expected to miss the game.

The stats are a bit strange in this one, as Edmonton averages 63 more yards offensively, but scores less than Winnipeg, while the Bombers allow 50 more yards on defense and fewer points. Winnipeg won both games this season, so perhaps a bit of a surprise Edmonton is favored here, although Winnipeg’s quarterback situation could have had something to do with it.

The Eskimos don’t have any problems at quarterback, as Mike Reilly had another banner season, throwing for more than 5,800 yards and 30 touchdowns against 13 interceptions.

There isn’t a whole lot to go on from a historical perspective, as away favorites in the playoffs are 0-3-1 going back 10 seasons and all favorites of 3 or more points are hovering just above 40%.

This is a tough game to call and one that would appear be capable of going either way, as long as Nichols can manage to stay in the game, as there’s definitely a big drop-off between he and the team’s backups, where Dan Lefevour is No. 2 on the depth chart.

The whole world seems to love Edmonton here, the betting public, the CFL writers, where all seven on the CFL website took the Eskimos, so naturally, I’ll go the other way and grab the field goal with the home team.