Destefano Dismisses Polls

Challenger Says Anti-incumbent Mood Will Cancel Rell's Hefty Lead

October 21, 2006|By CHRISTOPHER KEATING; Capitol Bureau Chief

Despite being down 26 points in the Quinnipiac Poll 2 1/2 weeks before Election Day, gubernatorial challenger John DeStefano says the outcome will be much closer because he's counting on a high-turnout, anti-incumbent, Democratic wave at the polls.

Noting that three other polls place him behind Republican Gov. M. Jodi Rell by 15 to 22 points, DeStefano said Friday his get-out-the-vote effort on Nov. 7 will be stronger than Rell's.

``Sure, time is growing short, but with the field operation, it's going the way we want it to,'' DeStefano said. ``I think what you're going to see is this huge turnout. It's going to be principally Democratic. It is anti-incumbent, and it's change-driven.''

In contrast to the tight polls in other races in a year when many believe that Democrats have an electoral edge, Rell has held a commanding lead over DeStefano -- dating back to their first polling match-up in November 2004.

The latest poll of 881 likely voters showed Rell leading by 59 percent to 33 percent with 7 percent undecided. The survey, taken from Tuesday through Thursday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Rell's lead is the highest of any poll this late in the election cycle since 1998, when then-Gov. John G. Rowland was leading Democratic challenger Barbara B. Kennelly by 38 percentage points in a Courant poll published two days before the election. Rowland eventually defeated Kennelly by 26 percentage points. The biggest margin in the previous half-century had been 25 percentage points, held in 1958 by Gov. Abraham Ribicoff.

While DeStefano is down in the polls, Republicans are charging that his campaign is running out of money and is unable to compete with Rell in the all-important television advertising. DeStefano's commercials recently have not been aired on the local television news as often as Rell's or those of the U.S. Senate and congressional candidates.

Public documents show that DeStefano canceled his planned purchase of 55 commercials on WVIT-TV, Channel 30, that were set to be broadcast from Oct. 10 to Oct. 16. Instead, he bought 57 less-expensive commercials for the news and for such programs as ``The People's Court,'' ``Martha Stewart'' and ``Ellen,'' according to the documents. A commercial on ``The People's Court'' costs only $135 for 30 seconds, while one commercial on the 11 p.m. news for Oct. 16 cost $1,700.

The documents also show that DeStefano originally agreed to pay $35,625 for the commercials, including commissions, but spent less than $24,000 after canceling the more-expensive ads.

``The DeStefano campaign is living hand-to-mouth,'' said George Gallo, the state Republican chairman. ``The only reason you would give up spots you reserved is because you don't have the money.''

DeStefano's campaign denied it is having financial problems. DeStefano's spokesman, Derek Slap, confirmed the cancellation but said the campaign purchased 57 commercials, instead of 55, for a lower price. He declined to say why the campaign booked five commercials on ``The People's Court,'' which Gallo said is far less attractive because voters who watch the news are more likely to vote.

``I'm not going to get into our media strategy with the Republican Party via The Hartford Courant,'' Slap said. ``We're spending more this week on television than any other week of the campaign.''

DeStefano said he was not aware of the television substitutions, but denied that the campaign was having financial problems.

``We had our biggest fundraiser ever'' Thursday night, DeStefano said. ``We raised $62,000 in North Haven. We're up on the air. We intend to stay up on the air. Everybody is getting paid. We're doing OK. ... I would know if the campaign was having financial difficulty.''

In the latest campaign finance reports, Rell showed about $540,000 in cash on hand, and her campaign said she had already purchased all of her network television ads until Election Day. DeStefano had about $307,000 on hand, but had $63,000 in unpaid expenses, according to the report.

Lieberman has charged that Lamont is trying to buy the election by purchasing the largest amount of commercials in one week in Connecticut history. The commercials are scheduled to run from 5 a.m. until 1 a.m. daily next week.

``A huge amount of TV is being bought right now,'' DeStefano said.

Rell's campaign spokesman, Rich Harris, said that she intends to stick with her strategy over the final 17 days.

``We're not changing anything in the way we're running this race,'' Harris said. ``We're investing in our field operations, in get-out-the-vote and all the things we know are necessary to win this election.''