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NHL Picks

Expect Offense to be on Fire in Los Angeles Tonight

Today we are staying on the West Coast for our NHL picks, looking to get a plus money ‘over’ when the Calgary Flames visit the Los Angeles Kings at Staples Center. Puck drops at 7:30 pm ET.

It didn’t look good early as the Senators and Canucks put up two quick goals in the first period but then things settled down as my followers cashed our fifth straight win. The books cleaned up on both the general public and the ‘wise guys’ as money poured in on the ‘over’ according to the SBR odds page. Last night provided another lesson why it’s important to shop for the best number and not be greedy just because you can get plus money. Wisely we took the ‘under’ and paid the juice to do so. I always hear people talk about value to which I answer, it’s great to get perceived value with a dog but there isn’t any value in losers.

The majority of early money is coming in on the ‘under’ pushing it to -145 in most spots including Bet365 allowing us to take advantage of the generous ‘over’ takeback of +125. Whoever is betting this has some pretty strong historical trends at their back. In their last 16 meetings in Los Angeles, the ‘under’ has cashed 12 of their last 16 meetings with a ‘push’. Overall the ‘under’ is 22-7-4 in their last 33 meetings. Despite this, we know that past results don’t mean future gains.

No doubt there is some animosity left over from last season when Mathew Tkachuk gave Drew Doughty a vicious elbow which will lead to a physical game tonight which many equate into a low scoring game. In order to win on a consistent basis, you must look to the second and third story of a match-up. The reality is you can see the potential in the Calgary Flames offensively. Their top line of Sam Bennett, Curtis Lazar, and Johnny Gaudreau only managed to produce an assist against the Anaheim Ducks on Monday but their second line of Sean Monahan, Michael Ferland, and Kris Versteeg who managed a goal and assist on eight total shots. Point is when their top line finds their scoring touch they’ll be a decent offensive team in conjunction with a third line that produced a goal and two assists Monday. Despite being off to a rough offensive start this season the potential for Calgary to breakout is there.

Jonathan Quick has been fantastic for the Kings in their first two games, allowing just one goal on 60 shots faced. The concern for me is the fact that Quick, who is expected to start, missed almost 5 months last season and now is expected to carry the load for the Kings. I’m not sure if the Kings give up another 33 shots that he’ll be sharp enough to not give up 2-3 goals or more which should push our total over 5.5. I need to see that Quick has the stamina to be reliable when playing more than a couple games in a row.

Let’s jump on the ‘over’ for our NHL picks tonight for one unit where a loss wouldn’t hurt our bankroll and a win would boost it to almost 7 units of profit.