Swans may fly with Tippett on sideline

Perceptions in football can change markedly in the space of just a couple of games.

When Sydney headed into its qualifying final against Hawthorn a fortnight ago, key forward Kurt Tippett loomed as a potent weapon. Now the Swans face Fremantle in a preliminary final with a sizeable part of the football world asking whether they may be better for his absence.

Only a month ago, there was no debate to be had. Tippett had just kicked five goals in the Swans' round-21 win over St Kilda, giving him 17 from three games - and 32 in just nine games at an average of 3.5 since his return to AFL ranks with his new club in round 13.

But his diminishing returns since, three Sydney losses on the trot, and now a second injury over a three-week period have raised a "chicken-or-the-egg" scenario which isn't that easy to answer. For while Tippett's numbers still look quite good, it hasn't necessarily been the case for his team.

Kurt Tippett of the Swans celebrates with Daniel Hannebery after kicking a goal during the round 19 AFL match. Photo: Getty Images

Tippett, in his last game for Adelaide in last year's preliminary final, had caused Hawthorn all sorts of defensive headaches. But that was far from the case in this season's qualifying final.

Hawk recruit Brian Lake restricted the big key forward to two goals from a handful of touches, and with Josh Gibson comfortably handling Jesse White and Mike Pyke, Sydney's forward set-up looked one-dimensional, slow and cumbersome, Hawthorn continually rebounding with little resistance. Last week against Carlton, Tippett was gone only five minutes into the game with a leg injury. But his departure appeared to give the Swans greater flexibility in attack.

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With its smaller running players capable of hitting the scoreboard, not a single goal was kicked by a key-position player in a winning score, Luke Parker leading the way with three, and Jarrad McVeigh, Kieren Jack and Harry Cunningham chipping in with two each.

So what has Tippett added to the Sydney blend? Certainly, his figures, despite the late drop in form, remain solid. Leaving out last week's cameo appearance, since his inclusion in the Swans' line-up for the round 13 game against Port Adelaide, Tippett ranks second in the AFL for goals and scoreboard impact, equal third for disposals and fourth for marks. Such is his strength and power that he is capable of tying up two key defenders.

But there's also plenty of evidence that, with the former Crow in the line-up, the Swans have become a little too Tippett-centric.

Over the second half of the season, only Collingwood's Travis Cloke has been used as a forward target more. In 12 games, the Swans have gone to Tippett 105 times. That's more than Hawthorn has headed to Jarryd Roughead, Richmond has looked for Jack Riewoldt - and both are Coleman medallists. Of Sydney's six lowest scores of 2013, Tippett has been present in the line-up for five of them. His injury doesn't leave the Swans woefully short of marking targets, with White and whichever of ruck pair Shane Mumford or Pyke is being spelled still a considerable physical presence. And it also offers Sydney more scope to use either of veteran pair Ryan O'Keefe and Jude Bolton as defensive forwards and potential goalkickers. That, in turn, could pose some defensive match-up issues for Fremantle, which has two obvious key defenders in Luke McPharlin and Zac Dawson, and another in Michael Johnson who regularly picks up the talls.

With the Swans likely to field a smaller, more mobile forward set-up, Fremantle coach Ross Lyon has to consider the possibility of being left a little top-heavy in defence.

It's another reason the Swans' midfield depth is so handy. Only Geelong has had a bigger scoreboard contribution from its most prolific ball-winners. The Cats' five highest possession-getters have posted 89 goals between them, but Sydney is not far behind with 81.

Jack, with 24 goals this season, has averaged exactly one goal a game, Dan Hannebery, who, significantly, led the Swans' goalkicking with four in the round-eight draw with the Dockers, has 16, McVeigh 15, Josh Kennedy 14 and O'Keefe 12.

Enough alternatives to have coach John Longmire not overly flustered by Tippett's spell on the sidelines this week.

Indeed, should Sydney again pull out a stellar September performance on Saturday night, it's selection next week that might cause him a bigger headache.