The Game. Edge: Ravens.
Seattle's road struggles look to continue as they enter the Big Crabcake to play the Ravens. Seattle will look to establish the run with Shaun Alexander,
but they will fail because the Ravens are 5th against the run. Baltimore's defense is playing extra hard, thanks to Ray Lewis. Lewis is looking to lead
his team to victory, because Kyle Boller is out. Look for the Seahawks to not get anything going through the air either, because Baltimore is 5th against
the pass. They've sacked opposing quarterbacks 25 times, while Seattle has allowed 26.

Although Seattle stands at a respectable 16th against the run, they dont have a prayer against Jamal Lewis. Lewis will steamroll through Seattle's
defense, and could gain over 150 today. With the Seahawk safties cheating up against the run, this could open up some passing lanes for Anthony Wright,
but I doubt he'll do anything of significance.

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 2-9 ATS since 2002.

There are so many significant injuries in this game that its difficult to say what will happen. With injuries to Indianapolis' offensive line and
receivers, its fairly safe to say that they will attempt to establish a running game. However, the Bills are 7th against the run, so Edgerrin James
might not have a great game like he did against the Jets. Without receivers like Marvin Harrison, Troy Walters and Marcus Pollard and a Pro Bowl tackle
like Tarik Glenn in the lineup, Peyton Manning could play poorly against the league's 9th best pass defense.

Greg Williams can't be an idiot in this spot. His only chance to win is to run Travis Henry at least 25 times. The Colts' rush defense is 30th, so if
Henry isn't restricted by Williams' stupitity, he could have a pretty good game. Indy's pass defense is somehow 26th in the league, but the good news
for them is that they have 22 sacks this season, while Buffalo has given up 30, which is 2nd most in the NFL. Drew Bledsoe will need lots of help from
Travis Henry if he wants to walk away from this game in one piece.

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Sandwich Situation: After getting revenge against the Jets, the Colts have the 8-2 Patriots after this meeting with Buffalo.

Will the Browns' defense please show some consistency? Every other week, it seems as though they have one of the best defenses in the NFL, while at other times,
they allow almost anyone to have big games. I think this will be one of those good weeks. Pittsburgh's offensive line can't block at all, so Jerome Bettis
could get shut down. That means, Tommy Maddox will be throwing into a defense that allows a 69.6 QB rating to opposing passers. Even though Cleveland
doesn't get too many sacks, they should have no problem getting though Pittsburgh's pathetic offensive line, which has given up 25 sacks this season.

With William Green out, the Browns will have to throw the ball a lot. That type of offense works really well against Pittsburgh. The Steelers' secondary
can't cover a soul, so expect Kelly Holcomb to have another outstanding performance.

Dallas might have the third best run defense in the league, but upon inspection, I feel it is important to note that they have not gone up against a
stud running back this season. Stephen Davis will be their big test, and I think they will fail. Carolina's huge offensive line is part of the reason
why Carolina can move the ball so well on the ground, and I think they'll open up holes for Davis. Jake Delhomme might be faced with a few third and
longs, and while a week ago, I might have said that this would be a concern for the Cats, it isn't at all. Delhomme has been sharp in his last two games,
and I feel that he has proved that he can start in this league.

Both these teams love to run the football. In fact, Dallas runs the ball the second most in the NFL, only trailing Carolina. The Panthers are 9th
against the run, and unlike the Pokes, Carolina has shut down a few solid running attacks. Plus, Troy Hambrick is no Stephen Davis. Look for nothing on
the ground for Dallas, forcing Quincy Carter to make plays, similarly to the way he had to against New England.

The Game. Edge: 49ers.
*** Tim Rattay will start and Zach Bronson and Ronnie Heard are questionable for the 49ers. Bubba Franks is questionable for the Packers.

Tim Rattay will start, which is great news for Terrell Owens and the 49ers. Rattay runs Dennis Erickson's offense more efficiently, and has the arm
strength to get the ball downfield to T.O., unlike Garcia. Green Bay is a solid 12th against the pass, but they'll be too concerned about the 49ers'
rushing attack. San Francisco runs the ball the fourth most in the NFL, while Green Bay is 27th against the run. Expect Garrison Hearst and Kevan Barlow
to combine for 200 rushing yards in this contest.

Brett Favre always beats San Francisco. Then again, he always loses in the Metro Dome and at the New Sombraro. He always wins at Lambeau, especially on
cold Monday Nights. None of those games went according to form. Therefore, I'm throwing all of the trends out that I have listed below. Green Bay has
the number one running game in the NFL, but they could get a little slowed down by Frisco's 10th ranked run defense, which allows opposing running backs
to only gain 3.9 yards per carry. One concern that the Packers might have is the rain. Usually, Brett Favre plays well in moisture, but as witnessed last
Monday Night, he could not throw with his broken thumb when the ball was wet.

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
*** Roosevelt Colvin is out and Fred McCrary, Bethel Johnson, David Givens, Troy Brown and Richard Seymour are questionable for the Patriots. David
Carr is out and Antwan Peek, Gary Walker and Stacey Mack are questionable for the Texans.

Before looking at this game objectively, I feel that it is important to focus your attention on the strong trend listed below. Anyway, like I've been
saying for weeks, Houston's offense is a totally different unit with Domanick Davis running the ball. The Texans have found their back of the future.
However, the Patriots are 8th against the run, so I don't see Davis performing well in this contest. Tony Banks starts for Houston, and he has played
surprisingly well this season, whenever he has come in relief. New England has the top pass defense in the NFL, so it could be difficult for Tony Banks
to get something going in this spot.

Houston has a poor run defense, but it doesn't matter anyway, because the Patriots can't run the ball. New England moves the chains through their
potent aerial attack. The Texans are 28th against the pass, so they normally wouldn't have a chance to stop the Pats' offense, but with all of the
injuries to New England receivers, the Patriots could be starting Deion Branch and Elliott Jamin, who will get eaten alive by two outstanding Texans
corners.

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Sandwich/Double Lookahead Situation: After a tough game with Dallas, the Patriots have 2 tough games against Indianapolis and Miami after
this one.

The Game. Edge: Vikings.
*** Charles Rogers and Scotty Anderson are out for the Lions.

Its a pretty intriguing matchup in the pathetic sense. Detroit has the worst running attack in the NFL, while Minnesota has the worst run defense in
the league. Something has to give. Well, the first time these two teams met, Shawn Bryson was able to gain 49 yards on 17 carries, so I guess Minnesota
wins that matchup. Without a running game, Joey Harrington threw three interceptions in that week 3 meeting. Harrington was 24 of 42, 235 yards. However,
this time, Joey does not have the services of rookie Charles Rogers and young receiver Scotty Anderson, who has really been coming on of late. I just
don't see how the Lions will move the ball.

Minnesota has to get back to running the ball often with Moe Williams and Michael Bennett, to take some pressure off of Daunte Culpepper. Detroit isn't
bad against the run (ranked 14th), but they failed to contain Williams in their first meeting. The Vikings' offensive line will push the Detroit defenders
around, so look for the Vikings' running attack to produce at least 150 rushing yards. This will set up play-action for Culpepper, who will be throwing
into the league's 8th weakest pass defense. I think Minnesota gets out of their four game funk.

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings have won 8 of last 10.

Lions haven't won a road game in 3 years (5-14 ATS during that stretch).

The Game. Edge: None.
I start off every Jacksonville offensive segment by asking if they will be able to run the ball or not. Without Fred Taylor's ground game working, the
Jaguars can't do anything. The Jets are 19th against the run, so Fred Taylor should be able to have a pretty decent game, provided the Jaguars don't
fall behind by double digits. New York also struggles against the pass, ranking 27th. Although they have a poor ranking, the Jets have 28 sacks this
season. Jacksonville has given up 23, so look for Leftwich to be under pressure all day.

Curtis Martin has really been picking up steam; he went over 100 rushing yards on only 13 carries against the Colts. You might be surprised by this
statistic, but the Jaguars are tied for first against the run. Incredible. They'll shut down Curtis Martin, forcing Chad Pennington to throw on 2nd and
3rd & Longs. That is where the Jaggies fail to stop their opponent. They are 23rd against the pass, mainly because they can't get the quarterback.
Jacksonville has only 13 sacks this season, which is 2nd fewest in the NFL.

The Game. Edge: Eagles.
*** Ernie Conwell is out and Kendyl Jacox and LeCharles Bentley are questionable for the Saints. John Welborn is out for the Eagles.

Deuce McAllister is the key to New Orleans' success. They must run the ball with him over 25 times in order to put themselves in position to win.
Philadelphia can't stop the run, so if the Saints can stay in this game, McAllister could have close to 150 yards rushing. The Eagles' pass defense is
only 19th, but with Bobby Taylor and Brian Dawkins back in action, Aaron Brooks could find it tough to throw.

Philadelphia must score early and often to take the ball out of Deuce McAllister's hands. I feel as though Andy Reid must committ to the run. New Orleans
is 24th against the run, while the Eagles gain a solid 4.6 yards per carry. The Saints are 17th against the pass, and they catch Donovan McNabb at the
wrong time. He has been on fire lately, going 24 of 30 for 314 yards against the Giants. He has improved in every single game, and I don't see that
changing against the Saints. Thus, the Eagles should be able to score enough points to force Aaron Brooks to throw more than he should have to. The only
concern I have about this game is that the Eagles might look ahead to next week's matchup against Carolina.

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Sandwich/Double Lookahead Situation: After a series of tough games, the Eagles have this game, and then they play the Panthers and Cowboys.

Emotional Win Alert: Teams were 14-32 ATS in 2002 and are 6-13 ATS in 2003. Saints won in overtime.

The Game. Edge: Rams.
St. Louis usually plays poorly on the road, but even they can blow out the Cardinals at Sun Devil Stadium. Last year, they beat the Cards at this
location, 27-14. With no look-ahead game, look for St. Louis' offense to come out firing. Arizona's defense was torched by Kelly Holcomb, basically
because they have no talent in their secondary and they get no pressure on the quarterback. Consequently, they are 31st against the pass. Marc Bulger
could have 500 passing yards in this contest, if Mike Martz wanted him to.

The Rams are 22nd against the run, so if they don't get a quick lead, Marcel Shipp could have a pretty good game. However, I don't think that'll be the
case. St. Louis will score too many points early on, which will force Jeff Blake to throw into the 8th ranked pass defense.

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
If you expect Anthony Thomas to have a career day in this contest, you have to be an idiot. Denver is 11th against the run, and they held LaDainian
Tomlinson to 26 rushing yards last week. With no running support, Chris Chandler will not have a good day. Although I believe that the Broncos can be
beat by the pass, as the Patriots displayed a few Monday Nights ago, normally, Chicago wouldn't be able to do it. However, if you look at my trends,
you'll see that the Broncos will be looking ahead, so Chicago will probably find a way to move the ball through the air.

There is no secret to Denver's game plan. They will establish the run with Clinton Portis, and then use play-action bootlegs with Jake Plummer. This
plan will work out pretty well because Chicago is 21st against the run and 15th against the pass. To stop Denver's game plan, you must defend the run
extremely well, which is something that the Bears don't do.

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Double Look-Ahead Alert: Denver has divisional rivals Oakland and Kansas City after this game.

The Game. Edge: Titans.
*** Robaire Smith, Jevon Kearse, Keith Bulluck and Drew Bennett are questionable for the Titans. Michael Vick is doubtful and Patrick Kerney and Matt
Stewart are questionable for the Falcons.

Normally, the Titans can't run the ball well, but against this 29th ranked Atlanta run defense, Eddie George could run for over 100 yards. That'll help
Steve McNair out even more against the Falcons' 29th ranked pass defense. Not that McNair will need much help against this unit...

The Falcons were able to defeat the New York Giants and almost beat the New Orleans Saints, because they ran the ball effectively against those two
opponents. They won't be running well in this matchup. The Titans have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, so in order to move the chains, Atlanta
will have to depend on Kurt Kittner. Enough said.

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
I really like what Bill Callahan has done the last two games. He has run the ball nonstop with multiple running backs, which is what Jon Gruden used to
do. Callahan exposed two teams that couldn't stop the run. Low and behold, here is another team that can't stop ground attacks. Kansas City is 31st against
the run, allowing 4.9 yards per carry. As long as the Raiders keep the Chiefs from scoring too much, they'll be able to move the chains on the ground.
Kansas City's pass defense is 4th against the pass, but that won't help them if they can't stop Wheatley, Fargas and Crockett.

Kansas City will also like to run the ball often with their stud running back, Priest Holmes. Oakland's run defense is almost as poor as Kansas City's,
so Holmes should easily eclipse 150 rushing yards. If Trent Green gets stuck in long yardage situations, he can get out of it, because the Raiders are
22nd against the pass, and have only registered 14 sacks this season. Kansas City has only allowed 15 sacks, themselves.

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Raiders have won 6 of last 8, but Chiefs won 5 in a row before that.

The Game. Edge: Bengals.
Get used to chanting "Rudi! Rudi! Rudi!" Rudi Johnson is now the starting running back for the Bengals, so forget Corey Dillon. San Diego is 20th
against the run, so Rudi should be able to run for over 100 yards once again. No one has benefited more from Rudi Johnson than Jon Kitna. Kitna has
played great football of late, and he is able to complete a good number of passes to his two talented receivers, Chad Johnson and Peter Warrick. San
Diego has the worst pass defense in the NFL, so they won't be stopping anything the Bengals throw at them.

LaDainian Tomlinson can run effectively in this contest, because Cincinnati is 23rd against the run. There could actually be Flutie magic today, because
the Bengals are 20th against the pass. Both of these teams seem to be evenly matched, so I'll go with the better coach and the team that is playing for
something. If Cincy overlooks these Chargers, they could very well lose.

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Sandwich/Double Lookahead Situation: After beating Kansas City, the Bengals have divisional rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore after this game.

Patrick Ramsey is questionable, but the Old Ball Idiot says he will play. Ramsey will need to throw the ball effectively, because Miami is 1st against
the run. The Dolphins allow lots of passing yards, but they have the 6th best pass defense (according to opposing QB ratings), because they have the
ability to get to the quarterback and cause turnovers. Miami has accounted for 24 sacks and 16 interceptions this season, while Ramsey has been sacked 32
times.

With Ricky Williams, you would think that the Dolphins have a potent rushing attack, but they don't. Miami's offensive line is to blame. They are the
reason why Williams has only been averaging less than 3½ yards per carry. Washington is only 19th against the run, but Miami's offense is so poor, that
the Redskins will be able to keep it close. I'm not sure whether or not Jay Fiedler will start, but it won't matter as far as the line is concerned.
However, Griese could lead the Fins to a loss.

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Emotional Win Alert: Teams were 14-32 ATS in 2002 and are 6-13 ATS in 2003. Dolphins won in overtime.

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.
*** Ralph Brown, Kenny Holmes and Jeremey Shockey are out and Tim Carter is doubtful for the Giants. Keyshawn Johnson is out for the Buccaneers.

It isn't hard to figure out what happened to the Giants recently. After Jim Fassel called out his team about accusing them of sabotaging his job,
he seems to have lost his squad. An unmotivated New York team should put a minimum amount of points on the board. Whenever I write about Tampa's defense,
I always say how they can be beaten with a big running back, who is getting blocks by huge offensive linemen. Tiki Barber is not a big back who runs
inside, and the Giants do not have a solid offensive line. I don't think New York will score all that much.

I don't know how the Buccaneers will respond to Keyshawn Johnson's dismissal. If they decide to play hard, they can probably be victorious. The Giants
are 17th against the run, and Thomas Jones played well last Sunday. New York is 18th against the pass, even though they've sacked opposing quarterbacks
28 times this season. Tampa is at the advantage here, because they've only allowed 15 sacks this season.

My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.