2014 AL and NL MVP Odds

We’re past the halfway point in the season, and as usual there have been no shortage of surprises. The Baltimore Orioles, who were supposed to struggle against division foes like the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox and the re-vamped New York Yankees, are currently leading the AL East by 4 games. The Milwaukee Brewers, who were almost an afterthought in the loaded NL Central, currently lead the Cardinals by one game.

Of course, there have also been a number of surprising performances from both established stars and unproven phenomenon’s. Charlie Blackmon, who had less than 500 career at bats entering the season, has been a revelation with a .306 batting average to go along with 14 home runs and 18 stolen bases. Although he was originally listed 25/1 to win the NL MVP, Blackmon is no longer listed as an option for bettors. His teammate Troy Tulowitzki is a different story.

When these odds were first posted, Tulo was listed as the NL MVP favorite at +300. Although his odds have actually improved to +225, Andrew McCutchen is the new front runner at +200. The Pirates outfielder (and reigning MVP) has posted a .324 batting average with 17 home runs, 61 RBI and 15 steals. Moreover, at 49-46 the Pirates are just 3.5 games out of first place while the Colorado Rockies (40-55) are 13 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West.

The table below compares the current NL MVP odds at BetOnline and Bovada:

Originally posted 6/16/14, Last updated 7/22/14

Player

Team

Sportsbk (7/22)

Greek (7/22)

Bovada (7/17)

Bovada (6/4)

BetOnline (6/4)

Andrew McCutchen

Pittsburgh Pirates

+150

+150

+200

+600

+600

Troy Tulowitzki

Colorado Rockies

+200

+500

+225

+300

+300

Giancarlo Stanton

Miami Marlins

+700

+800

+500

+400

+400

Todd Frazier

Cincinnati Reds

+1000

+2000

N/A

N/A

N/A

Clayton Kershaw

Los Angeles Dodgers

+1000

+1000

+900

N/A

N/A

Paul Goldschmidt

Arizona Diamondbacks

+1200

+1500

+900

+1800

+1800

Freddie Freeman

Atlanta Braves

+1500

+1500

N/A

+2000

+2000

Yasiel Puig

Los Angeles Dodgers

+1500

+1500

+600

+700

+700

Jonathan Lucroy

Milwaukee Brewers

+1500

+1500

N/A

N/A

N/A

Carlos Gomez

Milwaukee Brewers

+2000

+2000

+1400

+1200

+1200

Justin Upton

Atlanta Braves

+2000

+2000

N/A

+900

+900

Buster Posey

San Francisco Giants

+2500

+3000

N/A

N/A

N/A

Charlie Blackmon

Colorado Rockies

+2500

N/A

N/A

+2500

+2500

Anthony Rizzo

Chicago Cubs

+3000

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

David Wright

New York Mets

+6000

+12500

N/A

N/A

N/A

Chase Utley

Philadelphia Phillies

+6000

+12500

N/A

+1600

+1600

Ryan Braun

Milwaukee Brewers

N/A

N/A

N/A

+1200

+1200

Justin Morneau

Colorado Rockies

N/A

N/A

N/A

+5000

+5000

Yadier Molina

St. Louis Cardinals

N/A

N/A

N/A

+2000

+2000

Adam Wainwright

St. Louis Cardinals

N/A

N/A

+4000

N/A

N/A

When we originally posted these MVP odds, Miguel Cabrera had superior numbers to the Angels’ Mike Trout, but actually has worse odds of winning the MVP (+360 vs. +160). Oddsmakers must have been very confident that Trout would deny Cabrera of his third straight MVP, and so far that prognosis is looking very good.

Trout has posted a higher WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in each of the past two seasons, but has lost out to Miggy nonetheless. This season the Angels young outfielder is batting .310 with 22 home runs, 73 RBI, 10 steals and a league-leading 1.005 OPS. Those videogame-like numbers are better than Cabrera in every category.

Player

Team

Sportsbk (7/22)

Greek (7/22)

Bovada (7/17)

Bovada (6/4)

BetOnline (6/4)

Mike Trout

Los Angeles Angels

-500

-600

-200

+160

+140

Miguel Cabrera

Detroit Tigers

+800

+800

+450

+350

+350

Jose Abreu

Chicago White Sox

+800

+500

+2000

+2500

+2500

Nelson Cruz

Baltimore Orioles

+800

+800

+1200

+700

+700

Robinson Cano

Seattle Mariners

+1500

+1500

+1200

+2500

+2500

Jose Bautista

Toronto Blue Jays

+2000

+1500

+2000

+1000

+1000

Michael Brantley

Cleveland Indians

+2000

+1500

+3300

N/A

N/A

Josh Donaldson

Oakland Athletics

+2000

+1500

+1000

+500

+500

Felix Hernandez

Seattle Mariners

+2000

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Brandon Moss

Oakland Athletics

+3000

+5000

N/A

N/A

N/A

David Ortiz

Boston Red Sox

+3000

+2000

N/A

N/A

N/A

Albert Pujols

Los Angeles Angels

+3000

+3000

N/A

+3300

+3300

Edwin Encarnacion

Toronto Blue Jays

+4000

N/A

N/A

+1500

+1500

Scott Kazmir

Oakland Athletics

+4000

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Victor Martinez

Detroit Tigers

+5000

N/A

+1500

+1200

+1200

Melky Cabrera

Toronto Blue Jays

N/A

N/A

N/A

+2500

+2500

Alexei Ramirez

Chicago White Sox

N/A

N/A

N/A

+2500

+2500

Jose Altuve

Houston Astros

N/A

N/A

+3300

N/A

N/A

Masahiro Tanaka

New York Yankees

N/A

N/A

N/A

+5000

+5000

It will be interesting to see how MVP voters react to players with failed drug tests as Nelson Cruz (+1200) was suspended last season following the league’s Biogenesis investigation yet has the fourth-best odds to win the AL MVP.

Who do you think is offering value to bettors? Are there any names that should be added to this list? Will Mike Trout finally be able to pry the AL MVP from Cabrera? Please leave your thoughts and opinions in the comment section below.

David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.