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Russian aid convoy casts shadow on talks with Ukraine

The arrival of a Russian aid convoy in Ukraine on Friday without approval from Kiev threatens to further disrupt Ukraine's already-blunted military offensive to regain control of the country's east from pro-Russian separatists.

The arrival of a Russian aid convoy in Ukraine on Friday without approval from Kiev threatens to further disrupt Ukraine's already-blunted military offensive to regain control of the country's east from pro-Russian separatists by putting overt Russian personnel in the line of fire.

The Kiev government called the advance by some 280 Russian aid trucks into Ukrainian territory a "direct invasion."

The move strengthens the hand of Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of planned talks early next week with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko at the Eurasian Union summit in Minsk, Belarus, where European leaders had hoped to push for a cease-fire.

Sending the convoy could help Putin freeze the conflict in Ukraine where it is, which would serve his objective of disabling the country's economic recovery and blocking its aspirations to join NATO.

Russia continues to deny claims it is sending troops and weapons into Ukraine, even as NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen on Friday accused Russia of "a major escalation" in its military involvement in eastern Ukraine, including the operation of Russian forces inside the country.

An Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) representative watches the Ukrainian artillery withdrawal near Vasiukovka, Ukraine, in the Donetsk area on Feb. 27, 2015. Ukraine is withdrawing heavy weapons from its front line in the east in order to test whether a peace plan with Russian-backed separatists can work. Anastasia Vlasova, European Pressphoto Agency

A woman in traditional costume lays flowers at the temporary memorial for Maidan activists who were killed during anti-government protest one year ago in Kiev, Ukraine. Sergey Dolzhenko, European Pressphoto Agency

A boy climbs on a Russia-made trophy artillery rocket system, seized by the Ukrainian troops, at an open-air exhibition in front of the golden-domed St Michael Cathedral, in Kiev, Ukraine. Efrem Lukatsky, AP

A handout photo taken and released by the Presidential press-service shows Ukrainian President Petro Posroshenko greets a wounded serviceman during his visit to military hospital in Zaporizhzhya, Ukraine, on Feb. 21. Michail Palinchak, AFP/Getty Images

The statue of Goddess Bereginya is illuminated by lights placed where 100 activists were killed during the 2014 anti-government protests on Feb. 20 at Independence Square in Kiev, Ukraine. Sergey Dolzhenko, European Pressphoto Agency

A pro-Russian rebel walks through a destroyed position of Ukrainian forces near the eastern Ukrainian city of Debaltseve on Feb. 20, 2015. Germany and France demanded that a crumbling Ukraine truce be "fully respected" even as pro-Russian rebels celebrated a battlefield victory in a strategic town and exchanged artillery fire elsewhere with government troops. PHOTO / ANDREY BORODULINANDREY BORODULIN/AFP/Getty Images ORIG FILE ID: 538081747 Andrey Borodulin, AFP/Getty Images

Residents line up waiting for a delivery of aid as a Russia-backed rebel guards a pile of weapons and ammunition on Feb. 20outside an administration building in Debaltseve, Ukraine.After weeks of relentless fighting, the embattled Ukrainian rail hub of Debaltseve fell on Feb. 18 to Russia-backed separatists. Vadim Ghirda, AP

A young girl leans on a cart used to carry tree branches for fire, outside a damaged apartment building in Debaltseve, Ukraine. After weeks of relentless fighting, the embattled Ukrainian rail hub of Debaltseve fell Wednesday to Russia-backed separatists. Vadim Ghirda, AP

A woman visits the temporary memorial for Maidan activists on Feb 20 in Kiev, Ukraine. The activists were killed during anti-government protests one year ago near the city's Independence Square. Sergey Dolzhenko, European Pressphoto Agency

A Russia-backed rebel looks at the flag-covered body of an Ukrainian serviceman in Debaltseve, Ukraine. After weeks of relentless fighting, the embattled Ukrainian rail hub of Debaltseve fell on Feb. 18 to Russia-backed separatists. Vadim Ghirda, AP

A man holding a Ukrainian flag stands vigil at Maidan Square in Kiev. Ukraine is commemorating the first anniversary of the Feb. 20, 2014, sniper attacks that killed dozens of protesters in the Maidan and were followed thereafter by the ouster of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich. Sean Gallup, Getty Images

Russia-backed rebels pose by a road sign on Feb. 20, 2015, at the entrance in Debaltseve, Ukraine, after checking the access road into town for mines they suspected were laid down by retreating Ukrainian government troops. After weeks of relentless fighting, the embattled Ukrainian rail hub fell to Russia-backed separatists. Vadim Ghirda, AP

Ukrainian government soldiers who withdrew from Debaltseve prepare to return to support a further pullout of troops on Feb.19 in Artemivsk, Ukraine. Ukrainian forces began withdrawing from the strategic town on Feb. 18 after they were surrounded by pro-Russia rebels. Brendan Hoffman, Getty Images

Pro-Russia rebels fire a volley of Grad missiles at Ukrainian government troops on Feb. 18 near Debaltseve. Ukrainian troops pulled out of Debaltseve after it was stormed by pro-Russia rebels. Andrey Borodulin, AFP/Getty Images

A man tries to remove pieces of broken glass from a window in a school damaged by a Grad missile on Jan. 25 in Vostochniy, eastern Ukraine. Thirty people were killed when rockets slammed into a market, schools, homes and shops. Evgeniy Maloletka, AP

Ukrainian servicemen ride an APC in the front-line village of Orlovka near Donetsk. Pro-Russian rebels vowed to conquer more territory in eastern Ukraine and ruled out peace talks after Kiev retreated from a long-disputed airport. Oleksandr Stashevskiy, AFP/Getty Images

A local man puts out the fire at his burning house after shelling in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, Sunday, Sept. 7, 2014. Strong explosions were heard early Sunday on the outskirts of the main rebel-held city in eastern Ukraine near the airport, raising new fears that a cease-fire signed two days ago is on the verge of collapse. Blasts powerful enough to be heard in downtown Donetsk came from the area near the airport, which has been under the control of government troops since May and has come under unremitting attacks from pro-Russia separatist rebels since then. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits) ORG XMIT: XSG105 Sergei Grits AP

Personnel from the Kiev-1 police force battalion check crates of Russian-made 9M113 Konkurs portable wire-guided anti-tank missile launchers in the basement of a building in Slaviansk. Sergei Kozlov, European Pressphoto Agency

Residents of Mariupol, Ukraine, dig trenches and build fortifications with sandbags. They are assisting Ukrainian troops in organizing their defense on the outskirts of the city. Alexander Khudoteply, AFP/Getty Images

Detained Ukrainian border guards sit in a garage at the Novoazovsk border crossing point in eastern Ukraine. In Novoazovsk, pro-Russia rebel fighters looked to be in firm control after heavy shelling a day before. Sergei Grits, AP

A photograph released by DigitalGlobe via NATO on Aug. 28 allegedly shows Russian military units moving in a convoy with self-propelled artillery in the area of Krasnodon, Ukraine. DigitalGlobe/NATO, via AFP/Getty Images

A photograph provided by DigitalGlobe via NATO allegedly shows six Russian 153mm 2S19 self-propelled guns located in Russia near Kuybyshevo. This site is situated 4 miles south of the Ukraine border near the village of Chervonyi Zhovten. The guns are pointing towards Ukrainian territory. DigitalGlobe/NATO via AFP/Getty Images

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The convoy forces a choice on Ukraine: Accept a temporary cease-fire to avoid harming a declared Russian humanitarian mission, or risk a frontal Russian invasion, says Damon Wilson, a Ukraine and Russia expert who served under presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton and is now at the Atlantic Center, a think tank in Washington.

"The Russians are forcing them to accept a temporary cease-fire ... or to continue with the operation and risk casualties with elements of this convoy with, at minimum, a public relations disaster and at maximum giving Putin a pretext to send in peacekeepers," Wilson said.

On Friday, National Security Council spokesperson Caitlin Hayden said the international community remains "profoundly concerned" about Russia's actions.

"Russia's decision today to send in its vehicles and personnel without the ICRC and without the express permission of the Ukrainian authorities only amplifies international concerns about Russia's true intentions," she said in a statement.

Russia's 2008 war with the Republic of Georgia, as that former Soviet Republic sought NATO membership, began when Russian peacekeepers were killed in Georgian government shelling, which became a "pretext for a frontal Russian invasion on Georgian territory," Wilson said.

Tuesday's talks in Minsk will be about how to halt the fighting, says Phillip Karber, president of the Potomac Foundation who has briefed Congress and the White House on his assessment of the Ukrainian military campaign in east Ukraine.

The Ukrainian military offensive to regain control of the east has surrounded the last remaining separatist strongholds in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, with street-to-street fighting this week in Luhansk, but at a high cost, Karber said.

"The Ukrainian offensive has been blunted by a stream of reinforcements coming from Russia to the separatists who are getting heavier equipment than they ever had before," he said.

A Ukrainian soldier sits near a tank at a checkpoint in the eastern Ukrainian town Avdeevka, near of Donetsk, Ukraine, on Aug. 22, 2014.(Photo: Roman Pilipey, EPA)

On Friday, Rasmussen accused Russia of sending "large quantities" of advanced weapons, including tanks, armored personnel carriers and artillery to separatists in eastern Ukraine, adding that NATO has also observed "an alarming buildup of Russian ground and air forces" near Ukraine. Meanwhile, Rear Adm. John Kirby, Pentagon press secretary, called the more than 10,000 Russian troops massed on Ukraine's border "worrisome."

Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council published photos Thursday of captured Ukrainian tanks in the hands of paratroopers of Russia's Pskov Brigade, which Russian military spokesman dismissed as fabrications.

Ukraine has also accused Russia of supplying rebels with sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles — similar to the type that shot down Malaysian Airlines flight 17, killing 298 people — which it says have been used almost daily to shoot down Ukrainian military aircraft.

At least 620 Ukrainian servicemembers have been killed and 2,283 wounded in the fighting as of Aug. 20, according to the Kyiv Post, citing official figures. More than 2,000 people have died in the fighting, according to the United Nations, many of them civilians.

Separatists with Russian assistance "practically wiped out three complete Ukrainian brigades," the Potomac Foundation's Karber said. The Ukrainians "have basically lost control of the border," and the Russians have sent column after armored column of men and material over the past six weeks, Karber said.

Going into the talks, "Poroshenko is under great pressure to compromise," Karber said. "His losses are mounting. His best units are taking losses. The Europeans are calling for a cease-fire."

The USA and European Union have imposed limited sanctions on Russia's banking and gas sector, and have threatened to increase them further if Russia continues to meddle with Ukraine. But how far they're willing to confront Russia "remains to be seen," says Ariel Cohen, a principal at International Market Analysis, an energy and natural resources political risk advisory.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said this week she's willing to guarantee to Russia that, contrary to Poroshenko's goals, Ukraine will not join NATO. At the same time, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said he aims "to bring about a cease-fire in Ukraine and to prevent future victims."

But if a cease-fire does go into effect, that won't limit Russia's involvement in Ukraine, Cohen said, as Russian troops would still be on the ground and separatists fighters would remain active.