No, it's not 'World War 3'

By Timothy Stanley

Updated 9:03 AM ET, Tue November 17, 2015

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Photos:Increased security following Paris attacks

People go through a security checkpoint to attend a Mass in homage to victims of the Paris terror attacks at Notre Dame cathedral in Paris on Sunday, November 15. French President Francois Hollande declared a state of emergency after the attacks in Paris on Friday, November 13, and said border security has been ramped up. The terrorist group ISIS claimed responsibility for the attacks.

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Photos:Increased security following Paris attacks

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls, center, speaks with police forces with French Interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve, left, and Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian at the Gare du Nord railway station in Paris on November 15 about security measures after the attacks.

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Photos:Increased security following Paris attacks

French police secure the perimeter after panic broke out among mourners who paid their respects at the attack sites at restaurant Le Petit Cambodge and the Carillon Hotel in Paris on November 15.

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Photos:Increased security following Paris attacks

Mounted police officers patrol in front of the Eiffel Tower in Paris on November 15.

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Photos:Increased security following Paris attacks

Security personnel inspect vehicles at the border between Belgium and France on Saturday, November 14.

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Photos:Increased security following Paris attacks

A police officer stands guard outside the Cafe Bonne Biere in the Rue de la Fontaine au Roi in Paris on November 14.

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Photos:Increased security following Paris attacks

A French police officer guards the French-Italian border on November 14 in Menton, France.

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Photos:Increased security following Paris attacks

Soldiers from the 3rd Marine Infantry Parachute Regiment of Carcassonne arrive at Charles de Gaulle Airport in Paris as security reinforcements on November 14.

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Photos:Increased security following Paris attacks

Soldiers patrol the Eiffel Tower on November 14.

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Photos:Increased security following Paris attacks

French police check vehicles on the bridge between Strasbourg and Kehl, Germany, on November 14.

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Photos:Increased security following Paris attacks

Police vehicles are parked near the entrance to the Louvre in Paris on November 14. Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said the state of emergency in France could mean restrictions on people's movements. Airports in France remained open, and airlines were still flying there, though some airlines reported canceled flights.

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Photos:Increased security following Paris attacks

French police check vehicles on the so-called European bridge between Strasbourg and Kehl, Germany, on November 14.

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Photos:Increased security following Paris attacks

Police stand guard at a train station in Paris on November 14.

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Story highlights

Tim Stanley: Some saying Paris attacks part of "third world war," but this is not apt: ISIS doesn't represent nation states

Caution, he says. The complexity of Islamic state politics can't be resolved just by arms. And much of world already arrayed against ISIS

World must not play to ISIS' 'clash of civilizations' ideology or use Paris attack to demonize Muslims and refugees, he says

Timothy Stanley is a historian and columnist for Britain's Daily Telegraph. He is the author of the new book "Citizen Hollywood: How the Collaboration Between L.A. and D.C. Revolutionized American Politics." The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

Pope Francis suggests the West already is at war -- a kind of "third world war." If the Pope is right then doesn't that demand a tougher response? Isn't the time for caution over?

Timothy Stanley

But only a fool would confuse caution for weakness. On the contrary, to defeat the enemy we have to fully understand who the enemy is, what they want and what kind of conflict we're involved in here. There are good reasons to proceed cautiously.

Who or what are we fighting? ISIS is different from al Qaeda, the group behind 9/11. The latter operated as an alliance of cells spread across the world; ISIS, by contrast, seeks to create a geographic space within which to build a caliphate. This shift in strategy perhaps explains why ISIS has been even more successful than al Qaeda at hitting so many different foreign targets with so many different methods -- from Sinai to Beirut to Paris.

ISIS' caliphate offers a haven for tens of thousands of foreign jihadists: They come, they train and then many return home to create havoc. The caliphate also provides money and the moral encouragement of having an earthly "paradise" to fight for. In his groundbreaking essay on the motivations behind ISIS, Graeme Wood describes an ISIS recruiter calling it "a vehicle for salvation."

Its fighters are obsessed with recreating Islam in its earliest form (or as they interpret it to have been, because the early caliphate was far kinder) and believe that most other Muslims have fallen from the standard -- one that includes the uses of crucifixion and slavery. Whereas al Qaeda limited itself to comparatively rational political objectives, like expelling Westerners from the Arab peninsula, ISIS wants to bring on the apocalypse. It is not nihilist. It is deeply — if distortedly -- religious and we need to learn to take its brand of religion seriously.

The good news is that ISIS is isolated. Applying the phrase "world war" here is unhelpful because it conjures images of rival, equally sized nation states engaged in total war. But while ISIS' reach is global, it does not command sizable support beyond its shifting boundaries. Meanwhile, the alliance against it is one of the largest and most diverse in history, including America, Britain, France, Russia and Iran.

Photos:Landmarks turn blue, white and red in support for Paris

The Eiffel Tower in Paris is illuminated in the French national colors on Monday, November 16. Displays of support for the French people were evident at landmarks around the globe after the deadly terrorist attacks in Paris on Friday, November 13.

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Photos:Landmarks turn blue, white and red in support for Paris

The world's tallest tower, Burj Khalifa, is lit in French colors Sunday, November 15 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

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Photos:Landmarks turn blue, white and red in support for Paris

A man walks past Jerusalem's Old City walls, which were illuminated in the colors of the French flag on November 15.

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Photos:Landmarks turn blue, white and red in support for Paris

The Tokyo Skytree is lit up in the colors of the French flag on November 15.

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Photos:Landmarks turn blue, white and red in support for Paris

A paddlewheel riverboat passes under a bridge in Nashville, Tennessee, on Saturday, November 14.

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Photos:Landmarks turn blue, white and red in support for Paris

Estonia's government building in Tallinn glows with the French national colors on November 14.

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Photos:Landmarks turn blue, white and red in support for Paris

The Peace Bridge, which connects Canada and the United States, glows with the colors of the French flag November 14 in Buffalo, New York.

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Photos:Landmarks turn blue, white and red in support for Paris

The Staples Center's ice is lit up with the colors of the French flag before the start of an NHL hockey game on November 14.

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Photos:Landmarks turn blue, white and red in support for Paris

The Christ the Redeemer statue in Rio de Janeiro is illuminated in French national colors on November 14.

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Photos:Landmarks turn blue, white and red in support for Paris

As the sun sets, London's Tower Bridge is lit in a succession of blue, white and red on November 14.

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Photos:Landmarks turn blue, white and red in support for Paris

The Palace Albania building in Belgrade, Serbia, is lit in the colors of the French flag on November 14.

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Photos:Landmarks turn blue, white and red in support for Paris

The White Tower, a symbol of the Greek city of Thessaloniki, is lit with the colors of the French national flag on November 14.

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Photos:Landmarks turn blue, white and red in support for Paris

The Southbank Centre in London lights the cloudy sky on November 14.

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Photos:Landmarks turn blue, white and red in support for Paris

People in Tel Aviv, Israel, light candles and hold posters during a gathering to honor the victims of the Paris attacks on November 14.

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Photos:Landmarks turn blue, white and red in support for Paris

The London Eye reflects onto the River Thames on November 14.

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Photos:Landmarks turn blue, white and red in support for Paris

People cross the street past the Cibeles Palace, Madrid's town hall, on November 14.