Wednesday, August 9, 2017

Looking Ahead to 2018: Potential Free Agent Offensive Additions

So we saw who the Yankees could be potentially losing via
free agency this coming offseason so let’s once again look ahead to 2018 and
see who the team could potentially fill those holes with. Let us first take a
look at the potential offensive upgrades that the Yankees could add this coming
offseason and at a later time we will look at the pitching. Keep in mind that
this is all hypothetical and as it stands today, everything is subject to
change in a moment’s notice.

Remember when I, and many Yankees fans, clamored so hard for
Justin Upton in Yankees pinstripes? Well that didn’t happen but the beating of
the drum could happen again in 2018 if the Tigers outfielder opts out of his
six-year deal with Detroit with four-years and $88.5 million remaining. The
Tigers are looking to rebuild and Upton has continued to produce which means
even if he doesn’t get a pay raise the right-hander would get on a better team
and that alone is worth its weight in gold. I don’t think the Yankees need an outfielder
though so cross Upton off the list for New York.

Greg Bird is the first baseman of the future but let’s just
assume that Bird isn’t healthy heading into the offseason and let’s assume the
Yankees want a bit of insurance at the position for the 2018 season. It isn’t
really all that far-fetched since the team signed Chris Carter this past
offseason to platoon with Bird so who is to say the team won’t again in 2018?
There’s many free agent first baseman expected to be available including Yonder
Alonso, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, Mitch Moreland, Mike Napoli and Mark
Reynolds to name a few. Presumably the Yankees would prefer a right-handed
option to compliment Bird meaning that Reynolds, a former Yankee, and Napoli
move to the front of the line. Neither are ideal, Reynolds strikes out a lot
and his defense is mediocre while Napoli is aging and is more of a DH-or-bust
at this point in his career, but the Yankees have been dealing with a less than
ideal situation at the position all season long anyway. Could it get much
worse? You could also throw Todd Frazier into the mix here although I believe
the third baseman will prefer to stay on the other side of the diamond as he
hits free agency this offseason.

Sticking with the first base position but looking in areas
that will likely exceed what the Yankees are willing to pay you find the bats
of Carlos Santana of the Cleveland Indians and Eric Hosmer of the Kansas City
Royals. Santana has taken a step back in 2017 after posting 34 home runs and a
3.7 WAR in 2016 but his walk rate has been steady and his stats this season
have been in line with his career norms. The problem is Santana is going to
want to cash in after that strong 2016 season, even if 2017 hasn’t gone exactly
according to plan, and even in a stacked free agent pool there should be plenty
of money to go around for Santana. Meanwhile Hosmer is not someone who has ever
really impressed me much. Sure his bat is nice and he is just 28-years old but
advanced metrics show Hosmer as a very limited fielder and his -0.2 WAR in
2016, a season in which he made the All-Star team for the first time in his
career, doesn’t exactly make me want to run home screaming to mom about him.
Hosmer is durable and Hosmer can hit but his career wRC+ (109) is lower than
Lucas Duda’s (124) who can also be had on the free agent market and if I were a
betting man I’d say Duda gets significantly less than Hosmer in 2018 in terms
of both years and dollars respectively.

The final player I want to showcase here is a bit of a “Get
Greedy” kind of player. This player isn’t a player that the New York Yankees
necessarily need but is a player that could rotate in and out of the outfield
as well as the soon-to-be vacant DH position. J.D. Martinez has somehow flown
under the radar for years now and that was never more evident than when the Arizona
Diamondbacks acquired the outfielder from the Detroit Tigers without giving up
a single blue-chip prospect. Since the start of the 2014 season only Mike
Trout, Nolan Arenado and Giancarlo Stanton have put up higher slugging
percentage numbers than Martinez, and keep in mind that Martinez was doing this
inside Comerica Park in Detroit which is historically a pitcher’s park, yet
somehow still Martinez is not what I would consider a household name. Now the
teammate of another player, Paul Goldschmidt, who isn’t really a household name
but should be, Martinez is gearing up to cash in on the free agent market in
2018. If anyone notices that is. If no one does notice it would behoove the
Yankees to not make a run at him on a shorter term deal in my opinion to see if
they could snag a great free agent option for less. Dare I say, Ninja Cashman.
Martinez is not going to win you a Gold Glove out there in the outfield, hence
why I said he could split time as the DH as well, and has been a bit injury prone
throughout his career but he is just 30-years old and would likely only command
a three-or-four year deal while having the same wRC+ (145) as Miguel Cabrera
has had over the past three seasons.

Get Greedy and get Martinez if you can. If not and if the
team wants a platoon and an insurance option at first base then sign a Mike
Napoli and call it a day. Either way it looks like there won’t be much
offensive help coming or much heavy lifting to be found in the Bronx before the
2018 season on the free agent market. Or I could be completely wrong, that’s
happened more than once.