Turkey’s Transition

Michael Thomas

The April referendum in Turkey signals a possible turning point for the country. For years now, Turkey has been at the crux of several major geopolitical ‘tugs of war’. Geographically, it is wedged between a European Union that it has long courted for membership and an unstable Syria that is forcing swathes of refugees across the border to Turkey. Strategically, it is swaying between a long-standing relationship with the United States and an increasingly warm association with Russia. Domestically, it has been drifting from a successful democracy toward a far more authoritarian regime.

This growing opposition culminated in last year’s attempted coup. The effort to oust Erdogan and his AKP party from power was ultimately unsuccessful, and only pushed the president to strengthen his control over the Turkish public. In the coup’s wake, he placed Turkey under a state of emergency, arresting roughly 50,000 people and sacking 100,000 government employees. The state of emergency has been in effect ever since, and was extended another three months following the recent referendum. In the weeks that followed the coup, Erdogan made a series of appearances to remind the nation of its cost, indicating that Turkey’s stability rested on his continued rule. He also took the opportunity to blame the coup attempt on Fethullah Gulen, a seventy-five-year-old Muslim cleric who was once a major ally of Erdogan within the AKP, but is now living in exile in the hills of Pennsylvania.

While it is still too early to tell what impacts the referendum may have for Turkey, it is increasingly clear that the country is in transition. Despite maintaining the same leader for the foreseeable future, Turkey’s relationship with the United States, Russia, and Europe each seem poised to change.

About the Author

Michael Thomas is a second-year Master of Global Affairs student with major interests in global trade, international business, geopolitical risk and issues in the Asia-Pacific region. He has held positions at the Thai-Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Bangkok and Descartes Systems Group in Ottawa. He is the recipient of the Dr. David Chu Scholarship (2016), the Global Taiwan Research Project Award (2017), and the Gordon Cressy Student Leadership Award (2017). Michael holds a bachelor’s degree in political science from Carleton University