The more I read about Mitt Romney, the more I don’t hate him with burning passion. In fact, the man seems genuine as indicated from the myriad of stories you can read about how he, with no concept of reward or coverage, would consistently go out of his way to help others. The problem I have is that his belief that we should help the less fortunate (something I agree with) scares me into thinking now that he’ll have his grubby little paws on the lever of power, he’ll do what’s “right” and force everyone to do it. His understanding of economics means he won’t do it in the same, backbreaking way Obama is, but it will still be done.

This is why I say I’m not voting for Romney. I’m voting against Obama, and right now the only vehicle that can realize that is Mr. Romney.

Now, I know Gary Johnson has said I should waste my vote on him, and he’s pretty much right – my vote is a waste right now. Because even if Romney takes Florida (not a given), I believe he will lose the election handily.

Several reasons why. Reason #1 ties into my blurb above – Romney wasn’t my last choice. I didn’t want him at all. There’s plenty of us Independents out there that simply have no enthusiasm for him and that translates into less GOTV effort, less talking to your coworkers and friends, etc. There appears to be a lot of that same thought from many people I’ve talked to.

Now, Obama has this problem is spades. Of course, the run down communities I drive through daily are 100% Obama, and these people are even standing on the sides of the road with signs. Of course they are, since Romney promises to make them work for their shit and they’d much prefer to just get it handed to them. Romney was 100% correct that 47% of the voters simply would not pull the lever for him regardless. And that number is part of problem #2

#2 – Right now there are people bitching that the Federal Gov’t is too slow handing out free food and water from disaster areas hit by Sandy. Those people, the ones who rely on the gov’t to pull their bacon out of the oven, will never vote to have less of those services no matter how bad it gets. They are mentally incapable of handling their own life and will never vote for anything but Democrats because they’ve been brainwashed into believing the D’s actually care.

You know, if 1% of the population of the United States were on welfare, I’d tell Libertarians to stuff it, that the safety net provides more opportunities since people would know they could risk ventures and realize that a complete failure will not see them and their family living on the streets. It wouldn’t even violate my beliefs about private property since I believe we need to pay for a judiciary and police force that can, you know, go after the guys who steal my shit and punish them for it thus protecting the whole concept of private property.

But it isn’t 1%. It’s getting very close to 50%. And those aren’t people ‘down on their luck’, they’re people who have, generation after generation, been handed everything in trade for keeping the right people in power. These people are not going to vote for any candidate that they perceive to be a threat to their funding. Even if Mitt Romney’s plan was to double the amount of welfare checks across the board, the Democrats would only need to make these people believe that it actually would be a cut in benefits and they’d vote for Obama in droves.

There are still millions of people who will vote for Obama come hell or high water, which leads me to my final point.

There has been a considerable amount of cascade preference since the first debate to Romney’s favor. There’s a lot of momentum on his side, and that’s good news for my #1 goal of unseating Obama (not so hot on my #2 goal – Keeping Mitt Romney away from the levers of power). But it won’t be enough. Again, 47% are going to pull the lever for Obama even after watching a YouTube video of Obama dismembering an orphan with his teeth in front of a crowd of KKK members, telling them he loves their organization and what it stands for.

That’s too close to the margin of cheat. Romney may actually win (I’m sure he’ll at least win the popular vote), but if it’s not a 10 point blow out, it’ll be contested. The Left has proven time and time again that there is no level too low that they would not sink to to win. So if Romney wins the EC, there will be lawsuits that will make the 2000 contest between Bush and Gore look like a training exercise. If Romney wins Ohio by <50,000 votes, expect recounts and missing ballot boxes with 100% Obama ballots to show up.

I don’t think Romney has the support of enough people to make it clear who the winner is. And thus, with the media refusing to report news and instead provide cover for the Democrats and their savior, I believe that come Nov 7, Obama will not be looking at summer homes in the Hamptons.

I pray I’m wrong, but I don’t feel I am.

posted by by Robb Allen @ 11/1/2012 1:33:28 PM

Comments

I've wondered how good we are having a false-conservative (Romney) in office. Suppose he does win - what happens in 2016? He runs again and wins (yay, eight years of false-conservative!...not), or loses because people don't like "how the conservatives have been handling things".

Suppose Obama wins, he continues on his current path of destruction. Then come 2016 America may be so desperate/willing/ready to have a REAL conservative president, so that things can actually get fixed.

That almost makes me wonder if we're better off with another horrible four years of Obama so that come 2016 we can get a REAL conservative and begin to improve what's left of the USA.

If Romney wins, I will be glad that Obama is gone. If Obama wins, I'll look forward to having a chance to vote for someone that I actually want in 2016.

Dayid, I'm not sure in another 4 years we'll be able to reverse anything should we end up cloning Ron Paul and putting him in every office.

At some point, we will have built a dependent class so large that it cannot be dismantled without a war. I'm afraid we're already at that point, and the hopes that a conservative president could fix it is a pipe dream.

I look at a Mitt win as more of a signal than the solution. I think 4 more years of this shit will demoralize people like me who'll just unplug and get ready for it all to burn.

I like numbers and spend my life studying big number systems - many variables and many permutations. This year was my first attempt at modeling (or rather, studying the models) of electoral events. So take my opinion with a grain of salt.

The sub-polling data (the data under the data) has been trending to Romney for some time, even in places like Ohio. That doesn't mean he was ahead at those times, but rather that a reasonable model of the system would put him ahead at the right time (now). Romney crossed the numeric threshold last week, and if it holds through Tuesday he'll be measuring drapes. Team O and R both have this data and people smarter than us, who understand what it means. There is a reason Obama looks exasperated and Romney looks confident.

Nothing is assured, but your close-call expectation is, I think, reversed. If Obama wins it is going to be a tight one. But if Romney wins it will probably be a wider margin than many want to admit. It won't be a blow-out, but it'll carry him far enough over to make the lawsuits not required.

As for the politics of Romney, I suspect it's a lot of what he's done in the past. All the claims of flip-flopping ignores the simple fact that he has been boringly consistent in his willingness to form malleable goals and get things done. For those who want to see budget and tax policy move forward, this is a good thing. For those who wear the banner of "True Conservative" or even "True Anything", it might come with some disappointments. But you already knew that.

I don't see him ushering in the Orwellian State, not do I see him restraining it out of significant political virtue. He's a middle of the road guy and I don't think he'll have an issue coming center and doing things the left will like, if it means getting the things he thinks he requires to finish a job.

Stopping idiocy will require we keep our boots on the neck of Congress. But that should always be our job. They will (both sides) work hard to undermine the plan of a President looking to restrain their only super-power: spending other people's money.

I'm not saying it's the best outcome, but frankly it beats the other option.

Sandy will assure low voter turnout in affected areas. Those who do make the effort are more likely to be Republicans. For this reason I predict Romney win in CT. He is leading in the polls amongst undecided voters in all swing states.

Patrick, thanks for the analysis. I've seen that mindset too, but I'm just preparing for the worst.

And to be clear, the problem isn't who sits in the Oval Orifice, it's the millions of people who continue to willingly submit their freedoms for false securities.

Silver, I have no problems with idealism. In fact, I won't work hard to change your mind because there's still that urge for me to vote Johnson too.

However, a pacifist has idealism too. He will watch a woman get beaten to death and not interfere because his principles tell him all violence is bad. The end result of his idealism is a dead person when bending said principles could have saved her life.

That's kind of how I'm looking at this. Principally, I'd love to see Johnson hit 5% and in any other election, I'd probably be going door to door to try to make that happen. But the end result of me, being in what could be a close state, voting for Johnson could very well give God's Waiting Room to Obama. Remember, Florida was won by Bush by just north of 500 votes.

Patrick's points are salient too. Romney has always been a middle-of-the-road guy. His leftish-moves came from being the Governor of MA and being surrounded by Democrats. But he showed he could work to get things done. As I said, the more I've studied the guy, the less I loathe him.

Being a WA voter I don't have a lot of influence in the Presidential election. And I figure waiting a few days to see the "only poll that matters" is not that big of a deal so I haven't really studied the EC maps, voter models, etc.

But I know the Democrats don't have problem with election fraud if things are anywhere near to close.

My gut feel is that Romney will win the election, the Democrats will steal it, and Romney is too nice a guy to fight the kind of fight needed to win it back.

I was originally for Clinton and I was angry over the way the DNC treated her so I voted for Republicans in 2008. Believe it or not, but that's the truth. I'll be voting Obama this time around. Since I'm in California, it doesn't really matter how I vote -- the Democrats usually win.

Romney is a hypocrit. That's why I can't stand him. I also don't believe he's smart enough to be President. I also hate the way he doubles down every time he is wrong on something and it takes him forever to get it right (even when 90% of the people tell him he's wrong). I see so many things wrong with Romney, I just don't have any respect for him.

I can understand people voting for him because he's not Obama -- but that's not a good reason in my book. He needs to stand for *something* and he doesn't.

On top of all that, women's rights are very important in my book and he's super-sucky in that area.

You fell for that line of crap? If he's elected President, what is he going to do? The Supreme Court has ruled on abortion. It would take a constitutional amendment to change that. 1) that takes a two-thirds vote of both houses of Congress and then ratification by the states. We can't even get that many people to agree that puppies are cute. 2) Notice, the President really has very little to do with that process.

IT IS A MADE UP NON-ISSUE!

Romney doesn't have any plans to take away women's rights. Sure, maybe he's got a religous issue with abortion, but it really adds up to a big nothing.

Not that you bother reading and listening to anything anyway.

BTW, I'm not a Romney supporter either. Personally I think the republic is screwed either way. I just hate to see the Obama camp getting a complete pass on how stupid their arguments are over some things.

Scalia seems to think Roe v. Wade is ripe for revisiting. I think keeping another conservative judge off the Supreme Court is a good enough reason to vote for Obama. Don't you guys listen to the Republican candidates on abortion? They are a scary bunch!

Women's rights is a lot more than "paying for ladybits." Equal pay for equal work, glass ceilings, etc. etc. etc.

Of course we hear the Republicans on abortion, it's the ONLY question the media asks them about in hopes of making them sound crazy. You fell for it, hook line and sinker, just like you fall for the anti-gun lies.

Obama pays the women on his staff less than the men. So, your argument again fall flat. You don't really care about that, you just.. umm.. hate Romney.

Do you have proof of Romney claiming women should make less? What policies has he promoted that would indicate that? Specific examples, with links please. I doubt you'll find it because it's yet another lie you've bought in to.

Much like how blacks were freed by Republicans, had their rights restored by Republicans, but Democrats have managed to lie so much that blacks seem to have forgotten that salient point and instead revert to "The Republicans are racist and want to put me back in slavery" which is exactly as ignorant as your women's rights argument.

I don't know if that's going to make a lot of difference in the long run- as politicians only reflect the will of the people. But if more of the people get on the smaller government bandwagon, and stop asking for free stuff, then the rest is sure to follow.

The thing about the 47% that are net takers of federal money. Some of them are new at it and still have the dream. This could erode that 47% down to 40-42%. In an election like this (coupled with low 47% turn out) could be the decider.

GOP excitement for Romney isn't exactly overwhelming, but the urge to get rid of Obama is going to drive GOPers to the polls.

Dem excitement for Obama is in the toilet. I think the polls are all overestimating turnout for Obama.

By all the polls, independents are going for Romney in a big way.

GOP turnout up, Dem turnout down and a significant Romney vote by independents tells me that this is going to be a blowout.

I have a feeling that after this is all over, the biggest question is going to be "how could the pollsters and the media have been so wrong?"

And the answer is because they are reporting on what they want to believe, not what is really going to happen.

BTW: I voted absentee and didn't vote for Romney (as I've been promising for a while now). I'm not guilty of the same bias...I don't want either one of these jerks in office. That's just the way I've been "reading between the lines".

Robb: I appreciate your pessimism, but I think it's unfounded. GOP enthusiasm is much higher than it was in 2008, and Dem enthusiasm has dropped significantly. Early voting is trending heavily toward the GOP, with the GOP attracting a lot of new voters, while the Dems are attracting voters who would have voted for them anyway. Put it all together, and Romney is riding an independent tidal wave the likes we haven't seen in a couple of decades. I think he is not only going to win, but it will be a decisive victory, where he takes OH, FL, NC, VA, WI, and possibly PA and NV. Obama is not only going to lose, he is going to be resoundingly rejected.

I was a Bush supporter because of his foreign policy, but I hated the words "Compassionate Conservatism" from the first time I heard them. It was nothing more than an excuse to act like a liberal when it came to fiscal policy. If Romney turns out to be another Bush, I will be washing my hands of the GOP forever. This from a guy who has two daughters name after Republican presidents. But I have written to every representative I have and informed them that I will do everything in my power to ensure every last one of them never wins political office again if they don't get our fiscal house in order. And I preach it to everyone around me, too. I find many more people responding to this positively than I ever have before.

TLDR version: Romney wins, if GOP doesn't get its house in order, we revolt.

Also, as a political scientist (try not to laugh at me) I have worn out the stock phrase "It's the economy, stupid" when asked who I think will win. Glad that my profession feels relevant one year out of four. Sad that we are, again, stuck with a Giant Douche or a Turd Sandwich.

In the storm devastated areas people are starting to get really surly. They feel the government has abandoned them in places like Staten Island. New Yorkers are dumpster diving to stay alive and I just saw a news video of a woman complaining about "people" defecating in the hallways.

I think this will result in very low support for the incumbents in these areas. A Romney win is almost certain.

Well...let me be the first to admit that I was dead wrong. I guess I was looking at the wrong signals.

The American Experiment with liberty and self governance is officially over.

Now the best we can hope for is that the inevitable collapse happens quickly so there are at least a few of us left with some memory of what liberty is supposed to be so we have even a slight chance of rebuilding something worthwhile.

Up side: the gun industry can expect a few more months of record sales.