Unpredictability score -- 1.49: Boston did a mini-rebuilding job in hopes of competing again in 2013, but pitching was the big problem. If Lester and Clay Buchholz don't return to form at the top of the rotation, the winter additions will have been for naught.

Here are the projected East standings using ESPN's Dan Szymborski's "ZiPS projection system, in which seasons are simulated a million times using a Monte Carlo method":

Also: Jayson Stark asked "18 executives and scouts to nominate their baseball Elite Eight -- the eight teams with the best shot to win this year's World Series":

Fifteen different teams got votes. ... You know this is shaping up to be an all-time crazy season when the Red Sox get zero votes and the Yankees only get one. I remind you we've never had a season in the wild-card era where both of those teams missed the postseason. Obviously, people across the sport now believe that's more than just possible. It's likely.

17 comments:

In the wild card era, the Braves have made the postseason 13 out of 18 years. The Red Sox made it 9 times. Why don't they talk about how the "Yankees and Braves" might not make it? No season where the Yanks and Sox missed the playoffs in the WC era? Same can be said about Yanks and Brewers. And Yanks and Cubs. (And Yanks and Rays, Angels, White Sox, Dodgers, Phillies.)

I meant overall rankings, but the W-L prediction works also. I can't remember my exact prediction, but I remember thinking this year I was entering with my honest guess, as opposed to last year when I decided not to express my pessimistic views and would likely have won if I had!

I can't believe your guess was only one win more than mine and yet you think they will be the wild card. Either I guessed higher than I remember, or you think the whole league will have a pretty mediocre season!