Analyses of the future development of organic farming

The objective of this research project is to analyse the future development of organic farming in Denmark from the field, farm, sector and macroeconomic perspectives. Emphasis will be placed on the economic impacts of a continued expansion of organic farming in Denmark, taking into account the adjustment problems of converting conventional farming. Part of the research will be devoted to analysing the regional effects, the impact on environmental indicators, as well as the economic effects of policy initiatives.

At the field and farm levels the project will focus on the specification of labour and machinery systems. The implications for total production costs and cost structures for different farm types will be determined. Existing farm, sector and macroeconomic models will be adjusted and extended to incorporate the information, obtained through this research project. Key words are analyses of barriers to entry, the effects of uncertainty with respect to future markets and prices for organic products, impacts of policy initiatives, as well as the dynamic process of converting Danish farming into organic farming.

A core activity will be to undertake a number of scenarios describing economic effects at farm, sector and macroeconomic levels. The scenarios will include construction of a baseline scenario describing possible perspectives for the future expansion of organic farming in Denmark, as well as a number of policy, regulatory and technology scenarios.

The research project will illustrate the impacts of different designs of agricultural and environmental policies on the agricultural sector in general, and on organic farming in particular. Furthermore, the results from the field and farm level analyses, can be used to support farmers in converting to organic farming and to develop organic production systems.