Indicator definition

This indicator presents anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in Europe from 1990 onwards. It analyses the trends (total and by sector) in relation to the European Community and Member States Kyoto targets for the period 2008-2012.

Definitions (from UNFCCC)

Emissions: the release of greenhouse gases and/or their precursors into the atmosphere over a specified area and period of time.

Greenhouse gases: those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation.

Sink: any process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere.

Source: any process or activity which releases a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.

Scope

Gases

All the greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, HFCs and PFCs). This does not include the greenhouse gases that are also ozone-depleting substances and which are controlled by the Montreal Protocol (see CSI 006).

In order to be aggregated, non-CO2 gases are weighed by their respective global warming potential and presented in CO2-equivalent units.

Emission sources

The indicator provides information on emissions from the main anthropogenic greenhouse gas sources, distributed by main emitting sectors (according IPCC nomenclature):

energy supply and use (including energy industry, fugitive emissions, energy use by industry and by other sectors, excluding the transport sector);

transport;

industry (processes, i.e. not including emissions from fossil fuel combustion for energy use);

agriculture;

waste;

other (non-energy).

Unless otherwise mentioned, the indicator does not cover emissions from international bunkers (international aviation and maritime transport), which are not covered by the Kyoto Protocol. In particular, these emissions are not taken into account in the total greenhouse gas emissions reported at national and EU levels.

Emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) are not included in total greenhouse gas emissions.

Geographical area

The indicator covers all 27 Member States from the European Union. Some figures also include information concerning other EEA Member States.

Period covered

The indicator covers annual emissions since 1990.

Units

Key policy question: What progress has been made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Europe?

Key messages

EU-25

Total greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-25, without emissions and removals from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), decreased by 4.8 % between 1990 and 2004. Greenhouse gas emissions increased by 0.4 % (18 million tonnes CO2-equivalents) between 2003 and 2004.

EU-15

In 2004 total greenhouse gas emissions in the pre-2004 EU Member States (EU-15), excluding LULUCF, were 0.6 % (24 million tonnes CO2 equivalents) below 1990. Compared to the base year level, emissions in 2004 were 0.9 % (38 million tonnes CO2 equivalents) lower (Figure 1). This means the EU-15 was little more than a tenth of the way towards achieving the 8 % emissions reduction from base-year level required by 2008-2012 under the Kyoto Protocol . Only five EU-15 Member States were on track to meet their burden sharing targets (Figure 2). Increases in carbon dioxide emissions were offset by reductions in nitrous oxide, methane and fluorinated gases. The main reason for increases between 1990 and 2004 was growing road transport demand. The large increase of CO2 emissions from road transport was only partly offset by reductions in emissions from energy use in manufacturing industries and from manufacture of solid fuels.

New Member States

Greenhouse gas emissions have declined substantially in almost all new Member States. In 2004, emissions were 23 % below 1990 level (Figure 3). This is mainly due to the introduction of market economies and the consequent restructuring or closure of heavily polluting and energy-intensive industries. Greenhouse gas emissions from transport decreased by 5 % between 1990 and 1995 but increased after 1995. In 2004 they exceeded 1990 levels by 28 %. All new Member States who have a Kyoto target were on track to meet their target (Figure 4).

Distance-to-target (burden-sharing targets) for EU-15 Member States in 2004, including Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks

Note:The distance-to-target indicator (DTI) measures the deviation in percentage points of actual emissions in 2004 from a (hypothetical) linear path between base-year emissions and the burden-sharing target for 2010

Data source:

EEA, based on EU-15 Member States greenhouse gas inventories provided before 6 June 2006.

Key assessment

The overall EU-25 greenhouse gas emission trend is dominated by the two largest emitters Germany and the United Kingdom, accounting for about one third of total EU-25 greenhouse gas emissions. These two Member States achieved total greenhouse gas emission reductions of 316 million tonnes compared to 1990. Italy and France, the third and fourth largest emitters, increased (12 %) and decreased (-1 %) their emissions between 1990 and 2004. Emissions in Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal and Spain increased by more than 20 % since 1990.

EU-15

Assuming a hypothetical linear target path from base-year greenhouse gas emissions to 2010 EU Kyoto target, total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions were 4.7 index points above this target path in 2004 (Figure 1). When the use of flexible mechanisms and carbon sinks is taken into account, total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions in 2004 were still 2.3 percentage points above the linear target path (Figure 2).

In 2004, four EU-15 Member States (Sweden, the United Kingdom, Germany and France) were below their burden sharing target paths excluding Kyoto Mechanism. If Kyoto mechanisms are taken into account, the Netherlands was also below its burden sharing target. Eleven Member States were above their burden sharing target paths: Greece and Germany (excluding Kyoto Mechanisms), Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal and Spain (including Kyoto Mechanisms). Compared to 2003, Finland, Denmark, Ireland and Luxembourg departed most from their target path due to decreasing fossil fuel combustion, except for Luxembourg where the increase is mainly due to increased road transportation.

New Member States

The aggregated emissions of the new EU Member States were 23 % below 1990 levels in 2004 (Figure 3). Apart from Cyprus and Malta, which do not have a target under the Kyoto Protocol, all new Member States were on track to meet their Kyoto target in 2004 (Figure 4). Greenhouse gas emissions from transport decreased by 6 % between 1990 and 1995 but increased sharply from 1995 onwards. By 2004, these emissions exceeded 1990 levels by 28 %.

Specific policy question: What are the emission changes by sector and by greenhouse gas?

Shares by sector in EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions in 2004

Note:Emissions from the energy supply and use sector include emissions from energy supply industries, fugitive emissions, emissions from energy use in industry and other emissions from energy use

Data source:

EEA, based on EU-15 Member States greenhouse gas inventories provided before 6 June 2006.

Specific assessment

EU-15

Greenhouse gas emissions due to energy supply and use including transport represent 80 % of all EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions (Figure 5).

The increase of emissions for the EU-15 as a whole has been determined by higher CO2 emissions from transport, from iron and steel production, from oil refining and higher HFCs emission from refrigeration and air conditioning. Spain and Italy saw the largest absolute emission increases. Germany, the largest emitter followed by the United Kingdom, saw further emission reductions.

Sources and sectors with increasing emissions (Figure 6):

Transport CO2 emissions (with 20 % of total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions) increased by 25 % due to road transport growth in almost all EU-15 Member States. Emission of N2O from transport increased by more than 100 %. The reason is mainly that catalytic converters, which reduce cars' exhaust emissions of certain air pollutants but produce N2O as a by-product, have become standard equipment.

CO2 emissions from energy industries increased by 4 % due to increasing fossil fuel consumption in public electricity and heat plants. Most Member States had increases between 1990 and 2004, whereas ht large Member States Germany and the United Kingdom reduced their emissions by 12 %. The most important reason for Germany were efficiency improvements in coal-fired power plants and for the United Kingdom it was fuel switch from coal to gas in power production.

Sources and sectors with decreasing emissions (Figure 6):

Reductions were achieved especially in CO2 emissions from manufacturing industries and construction (-9 %), mainly due to efficiency improvements and structural change in Germany after reunification.

CH4 emissions from fugitive emissions decreased most (-48 %, mainly due to the decline of coal mining), followed by the waste sector (-36 %, mainly due to reducing amount of untreated biodegradable waste in landfills and installing landfill gas recovery).

N2O emissions from industrial processes decreased by 55 % mainly due to specific measures at adipic acid production plants in the UK, Germany and France. Also N2O emissions from agricultural soils fell by 8 % between base year and 2004, due to a decline in fertiliser and manure use.

HFC, PFC and SF6 emissions from industrial processes, which account for 1.6 % pf greenhouse gas emissions, decreased by 6 % between 1990 and 2004. Large increases mainly as the result of the expanding use of HFCs as a substitute for ozone depleting CFCs that were gradually phased out in the 1990s were offset by decreases of emissions from the production of halocarbons and SF6.

New Member States

In the new Member States, CO2 is most important greenhouse gas (81 % of total emissions) and it was reduced by 33 % between base year and 2004. Second is CH4 (share 10 %, decrease 40 %) compared to the base year, emissions of all of these gases decreased significantly. The share of F-gases is 0.6 %. These emissions have been increasing since 1990 (147 %), but there are still countries which do not report F-gases. Between base year and 2004 greenhouse gas emissions have been reduced in all the main sectors responsible for greenhouse gas emissions except for transport, where emissions increased by 29% (Figure 7).

Justification for indicator selection

Climate change is one of our greatest environmental, social and economic threats. The warming of the climate system is unequivocal, says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Observations show increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. It is very likely that most of the warming can be attributed to the emissions of greenhouse gases by human activities.

Over the past 150 years, mean temperature has increased by almost 0.8 °C globally and by about 1 °C in Europe. Without global action to limit emissions, the IPCC expects that global temperatures may increase further by 1.8 to 4.0 °C by 2100. This means that temperature increase since pre-industrial times would exceed 2 °C. Beyond this threshold irreversible and possibly catastrophic changes become far more likely.

To halt climate change, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced significantly, and policies to do so must be put in place and fully implemented.

The present indicator CSI 010 presents total and sectoral trends of greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union and other EEA member countries, and can be used to assess progress in reducing emissions in the EU and the individual Member States (see Policy context section).

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) sets an ultimate objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations 'at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced) interference with the climate system.' It also requires precise and regularly updated inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from industrialized countries. With a few exceptions, the 'base year' for tabulating greenhouse gas emissions has been set as 1990.

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the UNFCCC which sets binding targets for industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012. (See next section).

The European Community (EC), as a party to the UNFCCC, reports annually on the greenhouse gas emissions within the area covered by its Member States. The Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory and inventory report, officially submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat, is prepared on behalf of the European Commission (DG Environment) by the European Environment Agency's European Topic Centre for Air and Climate Change (ETC/ACC) supported by the Joint Research Centre and Eurostat.

implement the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol as regards national programmes, greenhouse gas inventories, national systems and registries of the Community and its Member States, and the relevant procedures under the Kyoto Protocol;

ensure the timeliness, completeness, accuracy, consistency, comparability and transparency of reporting by the Community and its Member States to the UNFCCC Secretariat.

Targets

Under the Kyoto Protocol, the EU-15 has taken on a common commitment to reducing emissions by 8 % on average between 2008 and 2012, compared to base-year emissions.

The EU-12 Member States (apart from Cyprus and Malta) have individual targets under the Kyoto Protocol. Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovak Republic and Slovenia have reduction targets of 8 % from the base year, while Hungary and Poland have reduction targets of 6 %.

Of the additional EEA member countries, Norway and Iceland are allowed to increase emissions under the Kyoto Protocol by 1 % and 10 %, respectively, from their base-year emissions. Switzerland and Liechtenstein have reduction targets of 8 %. Turkey is a Party to the UNFCCC, but not to the Kyoto Protocol and therefore has no reduction target. Croatia, an EU candidate country which started accession negotiations with the EU in 2005, ratified the Kyoto Protocol in May 2007 and has a reduction target of 5 %.

Base year

Under the Kyoto Protocol, the greenhouse gas emission level in the base year is the relevant starting point for tracking progress. For most EU Member States, the base year is 1990 for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), and 1995 for fluorinated gases (SF6, HFCs and PFCs). Five of the new Member States have base years or periods under the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol that differ from 1990 for CO2, CH4 and N2O, which is possible for economies in transition.

National Kyoto or burden-sharing targets (reduction from base-year levels)

Country

Kyoto Target 2008-2012

Austria

-13%

Belgium

-7.5%

Bulgaria [1]

-8.0%

Croatia

-5.0%

Czech Republic

-8.0%

Cyprus

-

Denmark [2]

-21.0%

Estonia

-8.0%

Finland

0%

France

0%

Germany

-21.0%

Greece

+25.0%

Hungary [3]

-6.0%

Iceland

-10.0%

Ireland

+13.0%

Italy

-6.5%

Latvia

-8.0%

Liechtenstein

-8.0%

Lithuania

-8.0%

Luxembourg

-28.0%

Malta

-

Netherlands

-6.0%

Norway

1.0%

Poland [4]

-6.0%

Portugal

+27.0%

Romania [5]

-8.0%

Slovakia

-8.0%

Slovenia [6]

-8.0%

Spain

+15.0%

Sweden

+4.0%

Turkey

-

United Kingdom

-12.5%

EU-15 (pre-2004 EU Member States)

-8.0%

[1] The base year for Bulgaria is 1988.

[2] In Commission Decision 2006/944/EC determining the respective emission levels allocated to the Community and each of its Member States under the Kyoto Protocol, the respective emission levels were expressed in terms of tonnes of CO2-equivalent. In connection with Council Decision 2002/358/EC, the Council of Environment Ministers and the Commission have, in a joint statement, agreed to take into account inter alia the assumptions in Denmark's statement to the Council Conclusions of 16-17 June 1998 relating to base-year emissions in 2006. In 2006, it was decided to postpone a decision on this until after all Community and Member State initial reports have been reviewed under the Kyoto Protocol.[3] The base year for Hungary is the average of 1985-1987.

In order to be agregated into one single figure, emissions of the different individual gases are translated into CO2 equivalents, using global warming potentials (GWP) as provided in the IPCC guidelines. GWP are a measure of how much a given mass of greenhouse gas is estimated to contribute to global warming.

Gas

Global warming potential (GWP)

carbon dioxine

1

methane

21

nitrous oxide

310

sulphur hexafluoride

23900

HFCs and PFCs comprise a large number of different gases that have different GWPs. Countries report HFC and PFC in Mt CO2-equivalent.

All total emissions exclude greenhouse gas emissions and removals from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities.

Methodology for gap filling

The EC GHG inventory is compiled by using the inventory submissions of the EC Member States. If a Member State does not submit all data required for the compilation of the EC inventory, estimates for data missing for that Member State are made. In the following cases gap filling is made:

To complete specific years in the GHG inventory time-series for a specific Member State (for the most recent inventory year(s), for the base year or for some years of the time series from 1990 to the most recent year);

To complete individual source categories for individual Member States that did not estimate specific source categories for any year of the inventory time series. Gap filling methods are used for major gaps when it is highly certain that emissions from these source categories exist in the Member States concerned;

To provide complete background data tables for the European Community when some Member States only provided sectoral and summary tables. (In this case, the gap filling methods are used to further disaggregate the emission estimates provided by Member States.)

To enable the presentation of consistent trends for the EC.

For data gaps in Member States’ inventory submissions, a gap-filling procedure is applied in accordance with the implementing provisions under Council Decision No 280/2004/EC for missing emission data. The methods used for gap filling include interpolation, extrapolation and clustering. These methods are consistent with the adjustment methods described in UNFCCC Adjustment Guidelines and in the IPCC GPG 2000.

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

Methodologies to estimate greenhouse gas emissions and removals

Difference of methodologies between countries

Since Member States use different national methodologies, national activity data or country-specificemission factors in accordance with IPCC and UNFCCC guidelines, these methodologies are reflected in the EC GHG inventory data. The EC believes that it is consistent with the UNFCCC reporting guidelines and the IPCC good practice guidelines to use different methodologies for one source category across the EC especially if this helps to reduce uncertainty and improve consistency of the emissions data provided that each methodology is consistent with the IPCC good practice guidelines.

GWP

The IPCC suggests that the uncertainty in the total GWP weighted emission estimates, for most European countries, is likely to be better than +/- 20%. While uncertainties in the estimates of the non-CO2 gases are larger than this, the dominance of CO2, with a much lower uncertainty than 20%, in the GWP emissions results in the overall uncertainty of 20%.

The annual EC GHG inventory report provides a section (1.7) on uncertainty evaluation. The results suggest that uncertainties at EU-15 level are between +/- 4% and 8% for total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions. N2O emissions of agriculture soils is the source contributing most to the overall uncertainty of the EC inventory.

Trends

Total EU-27 and EU-15 GHG emission trends are likely to be more accurate than the individual absolute annual emission estimates, because the annual values are not independent of each other. The IPCC suggests that the uncertainty in total GHG emission trends is ~ 4 to 5%. The total GHG emission estimates are quite reliable and the limited number of interpolations used to build the indicator do not introduce much uncertainty at the EU level.

Rationale uncertainty

Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Global greenhouse gas emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004. Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years.

There is high agreement and much evidence that with current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades.

Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.

Anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change.

Words in bold represent calibrated expressions of uncertainty and confidence. Relevant terms are explained in the Box 'Treatment of uncertainty' in the Introduction of the AR4 Synthesis Report. In particular, a likelihood 'very likely' corresponds to a probability of occurence higher than 90 %. This uncertainty in specific outcomes is assessed using expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e.g. observations or model results).

The high confidence in the responsibility of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions for the warming of the climate system reemphasizes the relevance of monitoring and assessing greenhouse gas emission trends in Europe.