A guy from the Great Lakes state who loves watching & reviewing movies.

Sunday, February 26, 2017

The Michigan Movie Guy's 2017 Oscar Predictions

Well, the best films of 2016 will be honored tonight at the 89th Academy Awards. Here are my predictions for the awards tonight, along with who I think could win & should win.

Best Picture

All of the films nominated here are excellent. But the 3 big frontrunners for Best Picture are La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, & Moonlight.

Will win: La La Land. It's been the frontrunner since it premiered at Venice in September. I don't see it losing.
Could win: Moonlight. It's considered to be a dark horse. Although I don't foresee it winning, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if it did.
Should win: Manchester by the Sea. It's the best film of the Best Picture nominees. It's my 2nd-favorite film of 2016. Out of all these films, it deserves to win.

Best Director

All of the films here were directed with excellent precision. The frontrunners are Damien Chazelle for La La Land, & Barry Jenkins for Moonlight.

Will win: Damien Chazelle. After 2014's Whiplash, Chazelle directed La La Land with amazing precision. He's almost got it locked.

Could win: Barry Jenkins. Moonlight's one of the most acclaimed films of the year, & Barry Jenkins's direction is no small part of that. He's the dark horse here.

Should win: Kenneth Lonergan. His understated direction of Manchester by the Sea is excellent. It's his best film yet.

Best Actor

All of the nominees gave excellent performances. But it's down to 2: Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea; & Denzel Washington in Fences.

Will win: Casey Affleck. Although the odds have fallen against him recently, I still think he wins it.

Could win: Denzel Washington. After his Screen Actors Guild Award win, he has become the frontrunner. I wouldn't be shocked if he wins.

Should win: Casey Affleck. His performance in Manchester by the Sea is one of the best I've ever seen.

Best Actress

All 5 nominees gave great performances (although I don't think Meryl Streep should've been nominated). Emma Stone's the frontrunner here.

Will win: Emma Stone. She's been the frontrunner since she won the Best Actress Award at Venice in September.

Could win: Isabelle Huppert. She has skyrocketed in the nominations recently, & I wouldn't be surprised if she won.

Should win: Emma Stone. Her performance in La La Land is the best performance of the nominees.

Best Supporting Actor

This acting category is probably the toughest of the Oscars. Every nominee here gave excellent performances. The frontrunner here is Mahershala Ali.

Will win: Mahershala Ali. His performance in Moonlight is phenomenal.

Could win: Dev Patel. His win at the BAFTAs boosted his profile.

Should win: Lucas Hedges. His performance in Manchester by the Sea is absolutely stunning.

Best Supporting Actress

This one is all but locked up for Viola Davis.

Will win: Viola Davis. She gave a phenomenal performance in Fences.

Could win: Viola Davis. It's locked for her.

Should win: Michelle Williams. She's been nominated 4 times & she gave the most heartbreaking performance of the year in Manchester by the Sea.

Best Original Screenplay

It's a close race here.

Will win: Manchester by the Sea. Kenneth Lonergan's screenplay is amazing.

Could win: La La Land. This won Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes.

Should win: 20th Century Women. This was the best film of the year, & the screenplay was one of the big reasons for it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

It's a less close race here than in Best Original Screenplay, but it's still not locked yet.

Will win: Moonlight. After competing for Best Original Screenplay at most awards, it competes for Best Adapted Screenplay here.

Could win: Lion. Its recent BAFTA win has boosted its momentum.

Should win: Lion. This was an excellent adaptation.

Best Cinematography

These nominees all had amazing cinematography.

Will win: La La Land. This is just the beginning of La La Land's onslaught through the technical categories.

Could win: Arrival. Bradford Young's cinematography is amazing.

Should win: La La Land. It has the best cinematography of the year.

Best Film Editing

This is a runaway race.

Will win: La La Land. Tom Cross looks to get his 2nd Oscar win in this category.

Could win: La La Land. It's locked for this.

Should win: Arrival. The technical achievements were outstanding.

Best Costume Design

It's a tight race.

Will win: La La Land. This is Mary Zophres's 2nd nomination in this category.

Could win: Jackie. This is Madeline Fontaine's 1st nomination.

Should win: La La Land. The costumes are absolutely beautiful.

Best Production Design

It's a runaway race.

Will win: La La Land. No one is stopping this.

Could win: La La Land. It's locked.

Should win: La La Land. The production design is amazing.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

I don't understand why Suicide Squad is nominated here.

Will win: Star Trek Beyond. The odds are in its favor.

Could win: Star Trek Beyond. No one is stopping this.

Should win: Star Trek Beyond. The makeup & hairstyling are amazing.

Best Sound Editing

It's a very close race.

Will win: Hacksaw Ridge. The Academy tends to go for war films in this category.

Could win: La La Land. This could sweep the sound categories.

Should win: Arrival. The sound editing is excellent.

Best Sound Mixing

It's less of a close race.

Will win: La La Land. The Academy tends to go for more music-driven films here.

Could win: Hacksaw Ridge. This could sweep the sound categories as well.

Should win: Arrival. The sound mixing is amazing.

Best Visual Effects

I don't understand why Deepwater Horizon is nominated here.

Will win: The Jungle Book. The visual effects are absolutely stunning.

Could win: The Jungle Book. It's locked here.

Should win: Doctor Strange. The visual effects are just absolutely amazing.

Best Original Score

These film scores are amazing.

Will win: La La Land. Nothing will stop this.

Could win: La La Land. It's locked.

Should win: La La Land. The film score is absolutely beautiful.

Best Original Song

The songs in this category are amazing.

Will win: City of Stars. La La Land has 2 songs nominated here, but this has the best chance of winning.

Could win: How Far I'll Go. If City of Stars & Audition (The Fools Who Dream) split the vote, How Far I'll Go could win, which would give Lin-Manuel Miranda the EGOT (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony).

Should win: City of Stars. It's the best song nominated here.

Best Animated Feature

This one is almost a lock.

Will win: Zootopia. It's been the frontrunner for a long time.

Could win: Kubo & the Two Strings. Its BAFTA win boosted its momentum.

Should win: Zootopia. It's the best animated film of the year.

Best Foreign Language Film

I can't believe Elle didn't make the shortlist, let alone get nominated.

Will win: Toni Erdmann. Its odds have faltered recently, but it had the frontrunner status for a while, & I think it wins here.

Could win: The Salesman. It has become the frontrunner recently because the director, Asghar Farhadi, will not attend the ceremony due to Donald Trump's Muslim ban.

Should win: Toni Erdmann. It's the best film nominated.

Best Documentary Feature

This is locked.

Will win: O.J.: Made in America. It's been the frontrunner for a long, long time.

Could win: O.J.: Made in America. This has it locked.

Should win: I Am Not Your Negro. This was the best documentary of the year.

Best Animated Short Film

It's locked here.

Will win: Piper. This will be Pixar's first win in this category since 2001's For the Birds.

Could win: Piper. Nothing will stop this.

Should win: Piper. It's the best animated short of the year.

Best Live Action Short Film

It's a somewhat close race.

Will win: Ennemis Intérieurs. It's the frontrunner here.

Could win: Sing. It's the potential spoiler.

Should win: Ennemis Intérieurs. It's the best live action short film of the year.

Best Documentary Short Subject

It's a close race.

Will win: The White Helmets. This has become the frontrunner recently, especially since the film's cinematographer was barred from entering the United States.

Could win: Joe's Violin. It's the potential spoiler.

Should win: The White Helmets. It's the best documentary short subject of the year.

Well, these are my predictions for the Oscars! Keep an eye on my predictions, & don't forget to watch the Oscars tonight at 8:30pm on ABC!