Sunday, May 30, 2010

Quick link dump here ... earlier today, I came across an awesome interview with Kansas City Royals' pitcher Brian Bannister, administered by Baseball Prospectus Radio. He talks about a lot of things, including his teammates, photography, music, and, of course, baseball. He's stated before that he is a fan of a sabermetric approach to pitching, and it is great to hear him talk about how he uses statistical techniques to help his performance. Here is the link.

Monday, May 24, 2010

Carlos Marmol continued his ridiculous run of dominance yesterday, striking out the side in a save against Texas. Marmol now has 44 strikeouts out of the bullpen, which bests Tyler Clippard's number by eleven. His 17.47 K/9 is also far and away the best in the majors. His success could be attributed to his slider. Marmol is one of the few pitchers that throws more breaking pitches than fastballs. So far, he has thrown 59% sliders in favor of 41% fastballs. Of the 108 sliders that have been swung at, 51 have been missed, which makes for a .472 whiff rate; that is well over the ~33% average rate for sliders. But the fastball, in more limited duty, has been just as impressive. With 52 swings, it has been whiffed at a rate of .346, also well over the pitch type average of ~16%.

Certainly, Marmol's biggest problem is his control. His fastball has been out of the zone more than 50% of the time, which is unusual; also, his 5.56 BB/9 is actually an improvement over 2009's ridiculous 7.91 mark. His ability to keep the ball out of play helps him in that regard, though, since he'll be more apt to strand the runners he lets reach.

Gameday PITCHf/x data is from MLB Advanced Media; it can be easily accessed via this tool.

Friday, May 21, 2010

A quick note about just how rare the Braves' miraculous 7-run 9th inning comeback yesterday was: Brooks Conrad's 9th inning grand slam marked only the 24th time in MLB history that a player hit a game-winning grand slam with his team down by three (thank you to David Fleitz's site for this data). That makes it almost as rare as a perfect game. Conrad is now the fourth player this century to hit one of these grand slams, joining Brian Giles (2001), Jason Giambi (2002), and Adam Dunn (2006).

Oh, and just for fun, here is the win expectancy chart (thank you to Fangraphs) for yesterday's Reds/Braves game.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

The Yankees' bullpen has had a horrible three days. Three late inning leads (some larger than others) have gone by the wayside, and two of the games have resulted in crushing losses. First, it was Sunday, when the Yankees had a 3-1 lead entering the 8th inning. Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera changed that in one inning:

5/16

Chamberlain/Rivera: 1 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K, -.753 WPA

The next day, it was Boone Logan and Chan Ho Park in the 6th and 8th innings respectively, as Chamberlain was unavailable for setup duty after his long outing the day before. This implosion was saved by some dramatic 9th inning home runs from Alex Rodriguez and Marcus Thames.

5/17

Logan/Park: 2+ IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, -.517 WPA

And yesterday might have been the oddest situation. The Yankees had a 5-1 lead in the 8th --- not even a save situation. Chamberlain came in and gave up all four runs, and Rivera gave up two more in the ninth. They were hurt by some misplays by Monday's heroes, Rodriguez and Thames, but the end result is clearly still very ugly:

5/18

Chamberlain/Rivera: 2 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 3 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, -.740 WPA

Put all of that together, throw in the few positive appearances by the relief corps (including a clutch 2 inning performance by David Robertson on Sunday), and you get an accumulated -1.75 WPA for the bullpen over the past three games. It's particularly shocking since two of the games were blown by the Yankees' best relievers, Rivera and Chamberlain. Obviously, this streak is not indicative of their talent, and they were undeniably hurt by poor defense in yesterday's game. However, it's clear that something has to get back on track.

Monday, May 17, 2010

Below is a plate discipline graph for hitters in 2010. The x-axis represents swings out of the zone, and the y-axis represents swings inside the zone.

The modest trend is that the greater the outside zone swing rate, the higher the inside zone swing rate. (And Vladimir Guerrerro just swings at absolutely everything.) The ideal player in terms of plate discipline (with all contact abilities aside) would be one who swings at pitches inside the zone and lays off the pitches outside the zone. Dividing the inside zone swing rate by the outside zone swing rate gives us a simple but effective way to measure how good a hitter is at recognizing which pitches to swing at. In 2010, the league average for outside zone swing rate is .274 and the league average for inside zone swing rate is .635; using these numbers, we can get a plate discipline score centered around the league average (a la ERA+ and OPS+).

Name

Z Swing

OZ Swing

Plate Discipline

Tony Gwynn

.586

.117

216

Chipper Jones

.665

.143

201

Geovany Soto

.574

.128

193

Josh Willingham

.631

.144

189

Adam LaRoche

.664

.161

178

xxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Alex Gonzalez

.628

.437

62

Julio Borbon

.597

.396

65

Brandon Wood

.637

.419

66

Rod Barajas

.663

.419

68

Will Venable

.629

.396

69

Remember, this has to do only with discipline/pitch recognition. Clearly, hitters that have other skills (raw contact, power, speed) have a lot of worth to a team even if they have poor plate discipline. Brett Gardner is a great example of this. While Brett may take too many pitches, he almost never swings and misses. His .938 contact rate is fifth best in the majors, and on swings in the zone, he makes contact 99.3% of the time, which is best in the majors.

I did a similar post a few months ago; thanks again to Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues for getting me thinking about this topic.

Saturday, May 15, 2010

Earlier this afternoon, Astros infielder Kazuo Matsui had a 15 pitch at-bat against Giants closer Brian Wilson. That, alone, is impressive, as it was the first 15 pitch at-bat sequence of the year so far --- a 14 pitch at-bat on April 8th between Justin Masterson and Alexei Ramirez is the second longest so far. However, what made the exchange between Matsui and Wilson so remarkable was the game state. The score was 2-1 Giants, the bases were loaded, there were two outs, and the count (by the time of the final pitch) was full. That situation represents a ridiculous 9.1 leverage index. And in addition, Wilson was trying to save the game for Tim Lincecum, who had had his bullpen blow three consecutive wins for him coming into the game. That's drama if I've ever seen it.

**EDIT** On the 15th pitch, Matsui ended the game with a flyout to left fielder Andres Torres.

Saturday, May 8, 2010

Here are the top 10 pitches in terms of whiff rate (swinging strikes/swings) so far in 2010. Unsurprisingly, all of the pitches are offspeed, either changeups, splitters, or sliders. The data is through May 6th, and I'm using a 50-swing minimum as my cut-off.

MLB Rank

Pitcher

Pitch Type

Swings

Whiff Rate

1

Brandon Morrow

Slider

58

.569

2

Shaun Marcum

Changeup

83

.518

3

Cole Hamels

Changeup

93

.495

4

Roy Halladay

Changeup

59

.492

5

Carlos Marmol

Slider

60

.483

6

Carlos Zambrano

Splitter

55

.473

7

Tim Lincecum

Changeup

130

.469

8

Clay Buchholz

Changeup

58

.466

9

Tyler Clippard

Changeup

50

.460

10

Francisco Liriano

Slider

90

.456

I've only re-classified the pitches of a handful of pitchers, so this is a conglomeration of my classifications and (mainly) MLBAM's. So unfortunately, there will be some mis-classifications. Any input on this front is always appreciated.

A few notes:

Tyler Clippard is having a pretty good go of it so far. Along with his 4 relief wins, 1.44 accumulated WPA, 10.55 K/9, and sparking 0.42 ERA, he has two top-tier whiff pitches --- his changeup, as shown above, is 9th best of all pitches (6th best changeup), and his four-seamer, with a .323 whiff rate, is second best to Matt Thornton's .344 mark.

There is only one curveball that ranks in the top 20 in whiff rate so far this year. Roy Halladay's hook, swung-and-missed at 40% of the time, is the 20th best whiff pitch in the majors.

On the other end of the spectrum: two-seam fastballs seem to have the most trouble getting whiffs so far. The sinking pitches of Kyle Lohse, Paul Maholm, Jason Varags, Nick Blackburn, and Ryan Dempster have all whiff rates under 4%.

Monday, May 3, 2010

Here are offensive leaders and trailers for some rates through the first four weeks of the regular season, minimum 80 plate appearances.

AVERAGE

League batting average so far in the majors is .257.

Robinson Cano

Yankees

.387

Austin Jackson

Tigers

.367

Andre Ethier

Dodgers

.365

Ryan Theriot

Cubs

.355

David Freese

Cardinals

.355

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Nick Johnson

Yankees

.141

Travis Snider

Blue Jays

.149

Aramis Ramirez

Cubs

.155

Carlos Quentin

White Sox

.173

Drew Stubbs

Reds

.179

DISCIPLINE

Based on walks/plate appearance. League average Isolated Discipline (IsoD) so far in the majors is .088.

Nick Johnson

Yankees

.241

Josh Willingham

Nationals

.194

Chone Figgins

Mariners

.189

David Wright

Mets

.187

Chipper Jones

Braves

.186

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Yuniesky Betancourt

Royals

.010

Pedro Feliz

Astros

.011

Alexei Ramirez

White Sox

.012

Julio Borbon

Rangers

.013

Placido Polanco

Phillies

.019

POWER

Based on Isolated Power ((TB-H)/AB). League average IsoP so far is .151.

Paul Konerko

White Sox

.494

Kelly Johnson

Diamondbacks

.417

Ty Wigginton

Orioles

.400

Robinson Cano

Yankees

.376

Andre Ethier

Dodgers

.365

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Chris Coghlan

Marlins

.000

Juan Pierre

White Sox

.000

Scott Podsednik

Royals

.022

Jerry Hairston, Jr.

Padres

.026

Melky Cabrera

Braves

.038

SPEED

Based on Bill James' speed score, in which 5 is considered average and 10 is maximum.

Julio Borbon

Rangers

9.4

Brett Gardner

Yankees

9.2

Will Venable

Padres

9.2

Drew Stubbs

Reds

9.1

Rafael Furcal

Dodgers

9.1

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Brandon Inge

Tigers

0.1

Paul Konerko

White Sox

0.2

Hideki Matsui

Angels

0.3

Jason Kubel

Twins

0.4

Travis Hafner

Indians

0.7

THE WHOLE PACKAGE

Based on my personal favorite metric for gauging overall player production, wOBA. wOBA is scaled to on-base average, so league average wOBA is around .330-.335.

Robinson Cano

Yankees

.495

Andre Ethier

Dodgers

.490

Paul Konerko

White Sox

.487

Justin Morneau

Twins

.482

Ty Wigginton

Orioles

.475

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Chris Coghlan

Marlins

.207

Carlos Lee

Astros

.208

Jerry Hairston, Jr.

Padres

.221

Aramis Ramirez

Cubs

.222

Julio Borbon

Rangers

.222

Well, well. How about that Robinson Cano. Though he is still not good at taking walks, his newfound power skills have turned him into one of the best players in the game. Personally, I was surprised to see such a lack of Albert Pujols on these lists, though it's not like he's having a bad season (.445 wOBA). I wonder how many of these same players will be up at the top of these leaderboards at the all-star break.