11/30/14

David
Wright's .389 batting
average in the All Star game is 9th highest in #MLB history (min. 15 PA).

7 Under The Radar Mets Prospects You Should Know - Wuilmer Becerra: The Mets acquired the 20-year-old outfielder in the R.A. Dickey trade and he has earned positive reviews after two years in their system. He hit .300 with an .819 OPS in 58 games in the Appalachian League this past season and was named the 18th best prospect there. http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2014/11/7_under_the_radar_mets_prospects_you_should_know.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Fangraphs
put out their top five Chicago Cubs prospects and we got ourselves another
shortstop[i]

4. Addison Russell, SS: The Cubs are loaded with talented
young shortstops with the likes of Starlin Castro,
Javier Baez and Arismendy
Alcantara already with MLB experience notched on their belts. Russell,
who turns 21 in January, could have as much or more talented than any one of
the trio above. He has a chance to play very good defense, hit for average,
slug 15+ home runs and also steal 15+ bases. The big question is how much he’ll
get on base after seeing his walk rate drop from 12.1% in 2013 to 4.1% after
the trade from Oakland to Chicago in 2014.

My
guess is this is the guy that will eventually become the starter. Alcantara is
being converted to the outfield, leaving both Castro and Baez available to
other teams via trades.

“this might
be the worst time in history to be out in the trade market with pitching. No
free-agent starters have signed [except A.J. Burnett].
You have the potential to trade for Cole Hamels or
Ian Kennedy or a bunch of other really good
starters, maybe even Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann. And every organization now thinks
it has pitching. Maybe not as much as the Mets, but more than in the past. No
one can find bats. I just think the teams with bats are king right now.

Mack
– The article went on to agree that the Mets will eventually trade one of their
pitchers, but probably at the end of this free agency period.

I
agree.

The
Mets are not going to participate in some ‘blockbuster’ trade because that
would take them giving up one of their highly talented team

controlled
starters. It’s not going to happen nor does it have to happen.

We’ve
said this a number of times… Harvey, deGrom, and Wheeler are safe… Thor and
Matz will begin the season in the minors… this leaves Montero, Colon, Gee, and
Niese to fill two starting slots.

At
least one of these will depart in some trade at the back end of the off season.

I
still hope the Mets recognize that the best long term direction Montero should
go is in the pen, first as a possible middle to long man reliever until the
all-star break, and then a back end reliever from there.

Mack
– Reminds me a lot of the R.A.
Dickey trade though no one
here is in their mid to late 30s.

This
is one of those trades that you won’t know if it was the right thing to do for
around five years, but I have to give it to Oakland for trading away one of the
true stars of the game. They get back four young players that includes a time
tested third baseman (Lawrie) and a probable future star of the game (Barreto).

Then we have
Jackie Bradley Jr., just a couple of years
removed from being a top prospect in baseball, to deal with. Bradley came up in
2013, struggling in limited plate appearances. With an OPS of .617 and limited
plate appearances in his first year, it was enough to wave away as small sample
size in effect, but Bradley saw 423 total plate appearances in 2014, putting a
better perspective as to his true offensive ability. During the course of two
Major League stints (432 plate appearances) with the Red Sox, Bradley managed
to post an OPS of just .531 and an abysmal wRC+ of 47. Bradley was actually
sent back to AAA in August, seeing 69 plate appearances before being called
back up on September 5, 2014. After being called back up, he had just one hit
and drew no walks to end the season on a whimper. Defensively, he is a good
center fielder, but that does not make up for his anemic offense and the center
fielder with a massive contract, Rusney Castillo. Bradley could very well fit
the role of utility outfielder/fourth outfielder if his stock has tanked as
much as it appears.[ii]

bobby
emailed -

Let the Mets be BOLD! The Mets should give 2 spots
to Rule 5 draft picks that are too young to be in the Major Leagues, but have
more talent than anyone they have in AA or above. One is A 21 year old LHP from
Miami Jarlin Garcia. Another is a 20 year old SS
from Atlanta Johan
Camargo. Lastly, a 21 year old SS
Marco Hernandez from the Cubs. check back in 3
years, and tell me I was wrong. The Mets can get a wildcard spot, AND keep
re-building at the same time. No one can tell me Ruben Tejada
at over 2 Mil $ next year would be better than getting one of these 2
Shortstops, who may be worse than Tejada NEXT year, but look to me to become
far better down the road. I would also like to add 2 RHP'S Jordan Swagerty from St. Louis, and John Stilson from Toronto. Both lost A Lot of time due
to Tommy John, but as we have seen with Steve Matz...
2 years is a magic # with T.J. surgery.

11/29/14

Over this Thanksgiving
weekend there has been some discussion on Macks Mets comment threads about
whether or not the Wilpons are cheap.
Many people would respond with a resounding “Hell yeah!” without looking
to bring up any verifiable data to back up their assertion. Defenders will point to the payroll levels in
the pre-Madoff days as an indication that they are not penny pinching Scrooges
after all. The truth, as it so often
happens, probably lies somewhere in between.

However, let’s take a
look at the basic economics of baseball in terms of attendance. It can be said that losing makes ticket sales
doubly challenging. (Ask recently fired VP of Ticket Sales Leigh Castergine how
difficult a task it is selling seats on the Titanic).

One of
the things that came up during the previous season was the base canard that the
Mets would be open to spending more when they saw more people in the
ballpark. That one was downright
insulting to the fans. After all, people
who are loyal to the team were still trickling into the ballpark despite a
lineup featuring such luminaries as Omar Quintanilla, Aaron Laffey, Rick
Ankiel, Anthony Recker and Jose Valverde.

Take a
look at the attendance record of the Mets over the past several years and you’ll
see a trend. The team crossed the 4
million threshold in the final year of Shea Stadium’s existence in 2008. Part of that record setting pace likely had
to do with the final chance to see the old ballpark but a large part of it also
had to do with the fact that the team was indeed playing meaningful baseball in
September – finishing with an 83-79 winning record, but 3 games behind the
division leading Phillies.

2009
marked the opening of the House of Horrors known as CitiField. The team plummeted to a 70-92 record under
Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel. Despite
the high curiosity factor of a few ballpark, the fact remains that losing
drives people away in droves and attendance dropped by 25%. It fell another 20% in the following year and
then another 20% the following season where it pretty much leveled off at the
2.1 million level during the whole Sandy Alderson/Terry Collins regime. Of course, we all are painfully aware that
the team has also played sub-.500 ball during these four years, too.

So what
does this history lesson have to do with economics? Let’s get overly simplistic and modest in our
revenue projects and take a look at how far they’ve fallen. They current stand 50% below the high water
mark in attendance for 2008. Now it’s
unlikely to get to that level again anytime soon, but let’s set the modest goal
of returning to 2009’s 3.1 million fannies in the seats. What would an extra 1 million people mean to
the team’s finances?

Well,
you can’t go by me as I live out in the hinterlands of West Texas and don’t
attend games anymore, but I’ll use the most modest estimate I can for revenue
projection. Assuming a ticket, some food,
souvenirs and a share of the parking amounts to $70 per person to attend the
game, then the extra revenue generated by another million fans in attendance is
$70 million.

Think
about that for a moment -- $70 million added to the current payroll would put
the Mets back to where they were before their Madoff demise. What would $70 million buy you? Well, for starters you would have Jose Reyes
playing shortstop and leading off. You
would have had money to have gotten in on the Cuban sweepstakes that have taken
place over the past several years while the Mets sat on their hands. You would have money available to lock up
players like Matt Harvey and Jacob de Grom by buying out their arbitration
years.

Do you
think the team would win a few more ballgames with these changes to the roster
than they have by shopping for minor league deals, lightning-in-a-bottle Chris
Young type contracts or having to settle for short term deals for older players
as a hedge against limited payroll resources?

As we
sit around and ponder what still needs to be done to the roster, the truth is
that the team is still operating under the short sighted vision of “getting by”
rather than investing to win. As
attendance shows, winning makes people want to come to the ballpark. Even the crosstown rivals have seen
attendance decline as a result of them missing the post season for each of the
past few years.

In
terms of current roster composition, does this analysis mean I think the Mets
should trade off every prospect in the system for an oft-injured and expensive
Troy Tulowitzki? No, it does not. However, it is insulting to the fans’
intelligence to say “Player X is too expensive for the Mets”. No one is.
The Mets need to change their philosophy.

Last year, Sandy Alderson jumped early in the free agency market
and signed OF Chris Young. We all know how that
turned out.

This year
could look like another premature signing of Michael Cuddyer,
which once again is early and far ahead of how the market was going to work
out.

Take Boston.

Cot baseball[i]
already lists Hanley Ramirez as a left fielder.
Boston also had Shane Victorino, Rusney Castillo,
Yoenis Cespedes, Allan Craig, Daniel Nava, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Mookie Betts to fill the other two slots in the
starting outfield.

My guess is
Castillo and Betts are the ceilings while Victorino is the foundation. The rest
(that are left) all seem to be expendable.

Even if
Cespedes winds up in Cincinnati (as rumored) one must ask if trading a back end
starter for either Craig or Nava would have been a better deal than 2-years for
Cuddyer and the loss of the 15th pick in the draft.

Another
5th OF candidate could be ex-Met Ezequiel
Carrera, who elected free
agency after turning down a triple-A assignment by Detroit. Carrera hit
.261/.301/.343, 73-PA last season and has a lifetime .253-BA. He has good speed
and has played all three outfield positions.

Would
divisional rivals, the Washington Nations, consider filling the Mets need for a
second lefty in the pen this season?

Fangraphs
[ii]
had a Thanksgiving feature on the Nats top 5 prospects, which included LHP Sammy Solis at number five:

5. Sammy
Solis, LHP: This former second round draft pick (2010) has a lot of potential
but injuries have derailed his promising career and he’s missed much of the
past two seasons due elbow injuries (both before and after Tommy John surgery).
The burly southpaw also missed time last year with a back injury. If he’s
healthy, Solis could help the Nationals in 2015 but it might come from the
bullpen in an effort to keep him out of the infirmary.

Seems
to me a Gee for Solis deal would be one talented pitcher with an injury history
for another.

Wendell
Kim, 64, a long-time major and minor
league coach should be spending his days playing golf near his home in Arizona,
like many others in his profession. He had a long career with the San Francisco
Giants, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, and several minor league clubs. Instead
he is in a silent world of his own--all by himself. The world of Alzheimer’s
Disease. And--according to a friend of his-- he's not coming back. [iii]

And
lastly…

Sandy
Alderson has
now told reporters that 2B Daniel
Murphy will be back for
the 2015 season and he expects big things from him. The good news here is the
fact that, at least, there seems to be some closure here. I always was a big
fan for an extended contract here, which doesn’t seem to be an option anymore.
I’ll just be happy he will be around for a pennant race in 2015.

Two
uber-prospects who on many other teams could be in the starting rotation in
April 2015: Thor
and Matz.

THREE LURKING IN THE
SHADOWS:

Three
dudes who have made quite the case as to being major league ready, or nearly
so: Logan
Verrett, Matt Bowman, and Tyler Pill. (Volumes 1, 2, 3 of my series).

THREE MORE
LURKING IN THE SHADOWS:

Three
pitchers (well, 4, as it was a tossup on the last 2, so you pick 1 of them),
who are a step further down from those above: Erik Goeddel, Gabe
Ynoa, Darin Gorski and Greg Peavey. These were covered in Volumes 4,
5 and 6.

SIX WHO ARE DISAPPOINTING
OR HURT:

Volume
7 includes 1 guy (Luis Mateo)
whose high promise ran head on into Tommy John, and 5 guys who have, to me,
been slightly, or more than slightly, disappointing: (Michael Fulmer,
Domingo Tapia, Matt Koch, Luis Cessa, and Rainy Lara).

Now surely some
of those will falter, and some of those will end up (like Jeurys and Jennry) as
pen arms. But while 34 starters sounds crazy, if you projected this
organization’s 7 minor league teams’ records over 162 games, the 7 teams
AVERAGED 92-70. And it was mostly because of the bumper crop of starter
arms.

In my next volume, Volume
10, I’ll take a crack at my top 5 Guppy Relievers from the rookie ball teams of
Brooklyn, Kingsport and the GCL.

Volume 9 – Top 5 Relievers:

#1 Cory Mazzoni: some of you who read my
Volumes 1 through 8 of starters may have asked, where is Cory Mazzoni?
Well, he has mostly started, but I see his future as a reliever more than a
starter. Maybe that is unfair, since he has been exclusively a starter
since 2012. A power righty arm, 2nd round 2011 righty Mazzoni
has dealt with injuries, limiting him to 52 starts and 287 innings over the
past 3 years, with most (36) of those in AA or above. So his #’s have to
be viewed through the lens of a guy who was rushed along and who also has been
slowed by several injuries. His most meaningful stretch was his 12 Vegas
starts in late 2014 (5-1, 4.67, 1.27, 49 Ks in 52 innings). His last 6
starts there were impressive, with 41 Ks and just 2 walks in 38 innings. A 4.67
ERA is more like a mid-3’s ERA in a normal environment, so I could easily see
Cory as a member of the Mets’ pen in 2015 if there is room. And a starter in a
pinch.

#2 Jack Leathersich – this lefty, selected 3
rounds after Cory in 2011, is oft maligned for his relative wildness and
struggles against lefty batters, but over the past 2 seasons, righties slugged
just .292 against him, and hit .192. Against lefties, he showed
improvement in 2014. And he has struck out 334 in 197 innings, which is
insane, how else to put it. He has struggled mightily with Vegas but let
me note that in his last 9 Vegas outings, he allowed 2 runs on 5 hits in 8
innings and K’d 15, so maybe the Vegas struggles are being put behind him.
Is he ready for the Mets pen in 2015? Up to Jack to show it.

#3 Miguel Sokolovich – a hard throwing 28 year
old righty with 16 major league innings to his credit, he had a 3.64 ERA in 51
Vegas games, and struck out 68 in 59 innings. But he also allowed 68 hits
and walked 19, but Vegas offensive #’s are inflated. He also has been
very impressive in winter ball so far. He missed 2013, but in the AAA
International League in 2012, he had a 1.90 ERA in 52 innings. I’d say he
is an arm to call up in a pinch. With this Mets franchise loaded with
pitching, one wonders if the “in a pinch” days are over, though. Apparently, the Mets felt similarly, as Sokolovich is now a free agent. My guess is another team will nab him (and sure enough, the Cardinals did after I wrote this).

#4 Akeel Morris – hard throwing righty
who just turned 23, who was the MILB fans’ choice as minor league reliever of
the year in the entire minors. Allowed 3 hits per 9, 3 of his 4 earned
runs came on a single pitch, and 14 K’s per 9 in Savannah. Nearly perfect
in save opportunities in 2014, Morris could well be a stalwart in the Mets’ pen
starting in late 2015 or 2016.

#5 (tie) Cody Satterwhite
and Jeff Walters – a tie for 5th to 2 former Tommy John arms. Satterwhite was a high
level guy in the Tigers organization (2nd round 2008) who missed a
lot of time with injuries. Mets scooped him up and he was very solid with
Binghamton in 2014 at the age of 27, with a 2.33 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 63 Ks in 58
innings, with 15 of 18 saves. A few bad late season games pushed his ERA
above 2.00, but he was then excellent in the playoffs (5 innings, 3 hits, a
walk and 9 Ks). He could turn some heads in 2015.

Jeff Walters had a terrific save year
(38) in Binghamton in 2013, which is why I left him on this list. But he
sputtered in Vegas in early 2014, most likely due to arm discomfort that
eventually required TJ surgery after 21 innings. Now 27, he’ll have
to show he is fully recovered in mid-2015 to get back onto the Mets’ very crowded
pitching radar screen.

Oh, and I should have included Dario Alvarez
in my top 5, but since he had a NY Mets cup of coffee in 2014, I will leave the
list to others who have not yet pitched from the Citifield pitching mound. Oh, and frankly, Paul Sewald has been terrific - he is in my Top 5, even, well, if that makes it more than 5. He is struggling a bit vs. higher Arizona Fall League competition, but 17 of his first 29 outs there have been by K...that makes me sit up and take notice.

Well, it's that time of year where many of us race out and spend money we don't have, to obtain items we don't really need, simply because its on sale. Sounds fun, though, don't it? Well, anyway, I don't even shop on Black Friday. I don't have the time, money or energy (and my daughter is still too young to guilt trip daddy into waiting in line for the latest craze).

But what about the Mets? They kind of mimicked what they did last year. They quickly signed Cuddyer this year to kind set a tone, of sorts. The Mets jumped in preparation for what they believed would be more of a crazed state of inflation, rather then a see of discounts, as the winter moved on. And, low and behold, we all just witnessed 'above-average' players (not elite superstars) all recently head into Thanksgiving with $18mil+ deals. Yes, I'm a huge Mets fan, and not a huge follower of other teams, but I feel like somebody else should be surprised that some dude on the Mariners I've never heard of got $100 mil. A recently often injured Ramirez got about $20 mil/year and a man called Panda pretty much is due $100mil himself in the next 5 years. Did I miss something?

To this day, some in Mets universe are still complaining about the contract given to David Wright. You know, our captain. You know, the face of the franchise, the face of MLB (well, it was a cute twitter contest but still counts), and he pretty much will end up with every Mets position player/batting record that matters when he hangs up his cleats.

Now, look where stand today. Granderson, at $15mil a year for a veteran who still showed power despite long drought of a poor BA last year, probably looks almost like a steal at this point. And this years guy Cuddyer, for all we know, is now officially the true definition of a Black Friday Deal.

However, is there anyone else out there, for the discount the Mets are looking for. Maybe, maybe not. Hey, I've heard that some due named Drew might be a discounted shortstop (please ignore/avoid/move on from/nothing more to see here). Hey, Nelson Cruz may eventually end up not getting what he wants (you know, like last year). Hey, will that hot, sexy seemingly new toy (Andrew Miller) appear to good to pass up? (how many 3-4 year deals you see relievers getting these days?)

Maybe the Mets will still be going in different directions here. Joking or not, we kinda know darn well that our Wilson's love their bargain shopping (sorry, I know its the holidays, but I couldn't help myself). And since they kind hired Sandy Alderson to be the kind of bargain hunting, that might be plan. Now, to be honest, I'm still starting to wonder if the Mets, like the dad writing this post, will going ahead and end up telling their kid (fans) that we already got what we need this year. Now that we've used an old toy in a new way (Wilmer at Short) he can once again have value, and may seem fresh again to play with. And if you're simply looking for a replacement toy to back up your main toy (utility infielder) why not dip into your current toy chest and pull out Matt Reynolds (what would a Mets article be without a pro Reynolds mention).

Then, there's always a chance the Mets play barter and trade with others to get the toy they want. First and foremost, everyone please stop talking about Tulo to the Mets. He's owed more money then anyone not named Wright. He's injured more then...... nevermind I'll stay nice about everyone this holiday season...... And in my ongoing humble non-expert opinion, he is NOT worth giving up Syndergaard, deGrom or Wheeler.

As far as the Cubs, no matter how many darn shortstops they have, their GM Theo is not giving them up for anything on the cheap. So again I say.. blah blah blah, in my opinion, blah blah blah, I'm not parting with Syndergaard, deGrom or Wheeler.

You wanna know what I'm willing to give up? I'm willing to give up the belief that the Mets can't compete for a division title simply with what they already had the day before Black Friday (I know, technically stores opened the day before now, but I like the reference).

I guess we can always discuss low level Walmart Shopper discount shortstops the Mets can obtain, as well as a few behind the shelf, just fell down there, sleeper toys that may become your kids new favorite for the next year. However, I believe, comparing this to the last 2 rounds of a fantasy baseball/football draft, no matter what we get, there's chance of knowing if those players will even be on the roster by the time the season starts.

So, for me, amongst the madness and hoopla of Black Friday, I will be relaxing on my couch (well, technically I'm also on my Black Fridayish 2013 surface pro tablet writing this post). But hey, along with the discount given during this time, I also got to use another person's student ID, which Microsoft store then gave me an additional 10% off because of......... hey Wilpon's I'm available for hire because I know how to save.

Some
of you have asked me why I quote so much from Fangraphs and the writers over
there.

The
main reason is simply… it’s the off-season and there just isn’t that much being
written about the Mets right now. The Q and A over there gives me an
opportunity to post a subject about a Mets player, give you my quick thoughts,
and then open it up to all of you in the report for comments.

Consider
the Morning Report here as just the vessel that gets things started here every
day. You don’t have to keep on subject and are welcomed to ask anything you
want. It’s a watering hole for loyal readers.

We really need some more active
writers to keep the site humming. Right now, Thomas
Brennan, Reese Kaplan, and Ernest Doveare punching out a combination
of five posts a week. We need nine more per week to cover the period of
8am-2pm.

Please consider joining the site as a writer. Also, please
pass on our needs to your friends out there that would love to be heard.

Tom is a perfect example of the growth from silent reader
to comment maker to infrequent writer to feature writer. And, it’s fun.

(and… to those of you that have been Mack’s Mets writers
in the past, be them still within the system (see list of writers on the right
side column of page one) or those of you that have moved on… we’d love to have
you back again and active.

Email me:
macksmets@gmail.com to discuss.

Sully-Chat -

Comment From
Bret - Why do the Mets seem to think Ruben Tejada is
the worst? I know he’s not perfect, but he’s young, cheap, and reasonably
productive. Seems like a lot of teams would be satisfied with that, but with
the Mets he’s a giant black hole.

Jeff
Sullivan: He hasn’t developed,
he’s had some off-field concerns, and while he’s an adequate defensive
shortstop, he’s not great and he definitely doesn’t hit, and now he’s getting
expensive. He’s not a *problem* but he’s not starter material

Mack
– Wow, it’s been a long time since anyone has brought up the name of Tejada.

Bret
is obviously not a Mets fan and hasn’t gone down the dead end road that Ruben
traveled. I think Sully has him tagged very well and I really like him as a
utility infielder, but nothing more than that, ever again please.

Mack - Mets
fans keep trying to revisit any possibility of securing the services of Tulo,
while, at the same time, offering less than he’s worth. I’m not sure the Mets have a player right now
that could anchor a trade for a player of this status. Matt Harveymaybe if he wasn’t coming off
TJS but definitely not simply the ROY and a couple of prospects. And, we’re
talking about someone currently on the disabled list.

Everyone
needs to move on from this subject also.

Baseball
America put out a feature on key players available in the Rule 5 draft[i]…
one, under the section called ‘flame throwers’ was:

Luis
Cessa, rhp, Mets: Another conversion
project, Cessa has been a slow-mover as he’s been used as a starter. He has an
athletic delivery, with a big arm (93-95 mph fastball) and a fringe average
breaking ball and changeup, and he throws a lot of strikes (1.78 BB/9 in 374
IP).

Check
out the entire article… it’s a good primer on around 50 players available in
the Rule 5 process and features a handful of other Mets as well

Sandy
Aldersonsaid
on Wednesday that he was not opposed to giving up a second draft pick “if a
player is available toward the end of the offseason at a discount.”

It
also has been reported that the Mets will keep their eye on the situation in Boston
and SS Xander Bogaerts. "It’s not like we’re
knocking down their door to see if [Bogaerts] is available," the source
said. "But we’ll wait and see how things shake out."

My
thoughts on this are not to read much into what comes out of Alderson’s mouth.
He loves to be cute about subjects like this and will jump from one side of the
fence to the other. I love how he says the Mets would be interested if a player
like Nelson Cruzcame available at a discount. Hey Alderson. That was last year, remember?