One more complicating factor, Apple is launching the iPhone in
China at the same time as the U.S. this year, despite the supply
issues. That could either lead to more sales, or mean nothing
since Apple has tight supplies.

No one wants to hear excuses, though. Apple has to sell 6 million
iPhones or more. Anything less than that and we expect a negative
reaction.

There is one wild card, too: Apple might not announce opening
weekend sales. Apple almost always announces opening weekend
sales. At some point it has to stop doing that, right? This could
be the year. If that happens, expect a negative reaction since
people will assume it has something to hide.