Finland GDP March 2016

Finland: Economic activity slows in March, but picks up in Q1

May 13, 2016

In March, economic activity rose a working-day adjusted 0.7% over the same month last year, according to the monthly Trend Indicator of Output. The reading marked a slowdown over the 1.9% increase recorded in February and represented the lowest reading in four months. March’s moderate expansion reflected rises in primary and secondary production as well as in the services sector.

On a monthly basis, economic output in March fell 0.4% in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted February’s 0.5% expansion. The trend moderated slightly, as annual average growth in economic activity inched down from February’s over-four-year high of 0.8% to 0.7% in March.

Moreover, Statistics Finland noted that in Q1, GDP likely expanded 0.4% in seasonally-adjusted terms over the previous quarter. This reading would mark a pickup over Q4’s 0.2% expansion and the fastest increase in three quarters. Q1’s preliminary GDP estimate is based on preliminary data of the Trend Indicator of Output and more detailed GDP data for Q1 will be released on 3 June.

The Central Bank expects the economy to expand 0.7% in 2016 and 1.0% in 2017. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 0.8% in 2016, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2017, the panel sees GDP increasing 1.1%.

According to Statistics Finland, which heavily revised its historical data this month, the current account showed a EUR 0.09 billion surplus in November last year, less than the revised EUR 0.18 billion surplus recorded in October (previously reported: EUR 0.54 billion).
In the 12 months leading up to November, the current account surplus widened to EUR 1.4 billion, compared to October’s revised cumulative 12-month surplus of EUR 1.2 billion (previously reported: EUR 0.18 billion).
The trade surplus narrowed in November against the previous month, recording net inflows worth EUR 181 million compared to October’s revised EUR 284 million surplus (previously reported: EUR 279 million surplus).

The current account surplus came in at EUR 0.54 billion in October, higher than both the EUR 0.08 billion surplus recorded in the previous month and the EUR 0.26 billion surplus totaled in the same month last year.
In the 12 months leading up to October, the current account deficit narrowed to EUR 0.18 billion, compared to September’s cumulative 12-month deficit of EUR 0.46 billion.
The trade surplus widened marginally in October over the previous month, recording net inflows worth EUR 279 million compared to September’s EUR 220 million surplus.