The Value of Ray: 12 Points in 1:45

Two weeks before the trade deadline, I wrote the following in this post:

Think about how many times you’ve seen this sequence: Ray cuts from the right corner around two baseline screens. Ray curls out to the elbow, receives a pass and faces the basket. He has a decent shot, only the big guy defending Perk has jumped out to try and deter that shot, leaving Perk open for a brief window. Allen rifles a quick pass to Perk who either lays the ball in right away or waits for the rotating defender to fly by him before going up for a dunk/lay-in.

The post was not a plea with Danny Ainge to keep Ray Allen, because it was perfectly reasonable for Danny Ainge to shop Ray if he had a chance to acquire, say, Kevin Martin in return.

The point of the post was that Ray’s value goes well beyond his three-point shooting percentage. And if you ever doubt that, you can do two things:

2) Much more fun: Watch the stretch between the 6:26 and 4:41 marks of the 3rd quarter from last night’s game.

The C’s scored 12 points in that 1:45—and Ray was responsible for all of them.

And here they are:

(6:26)—Ray runs left to right along the baseline and around two screens—one by Big Baby, then another from Perk. As Ray receives Rajon Rondo’s pass on the right wing, Perk jumps out to set another screen on Ray’s guy (Dwyane Wade). The screen catches Wade, and Ray dribbles around it, stops and rises to shoot.

Perk’s guy (Joel Anthony), sensing trouble, jumps out to contest Ray’s shot. Perk rolls toward the rim. Ray slips Perk a bounce pass on the right wing about 18 feet from the hoop, and Perk has a clear lane to the basket. Udonis Haslem sees this and rotates off of Glen Davis (standing in the paint) to rush out at Perk.

Perk delivers the ball to Baby, who lays it in.

Ray gets nothing on the stat sheet for this play—no assist, no shot attempt, nothing. But he creates it. That’s two points.

(5:58): Ray starts the next C’s possession on the left block, with Dorrel Wright fronting him. Glen Davis stands across from Ray on the right block. Ray fakes a cut toward Baby, which is probably convincing if you’re Dorell Wright, since Ray has made that same cut about 50,000 times over the last 14 seasons.

This time, though, Ray’s faking. He instead cuts back out toward the perimeter on the left wing, where Perk is waiting to set a screen for him at the left elbow. Wright has already fallen for the fake cut, so he’s two feet behind Ray before he even realizes he has to curve wide around a Perk screen.

Rondo hits Ray in stride. Once again, Perk’s man (Anthony) jumps out to contest a possible Ray jumper, and once again, Ray bounces a pass to Perk about 15 feet from the hoop. And once again, Udonis Haslem has to leave Big Baby in the paint in order to prevent a Perk dunk.

Guess what happens next? Perk dishes to Baby for the And-1. (Baby missed the foul shot).

Again: No assist for Ray. But this is all him. That’s four points.

(5:37): Rondo feeds Ray in the left corner for a transition three-pointer. That’s seven points in 49 seconds.

(5:09): This is a really gorgeous play. Rondo dribbles the ball on the left wing, near the sideline and behind the three-point arc, and the C’s gear everything to that side of the floor to fool Miami into thinking that’s where the action is. As Rajon dribbles, Ray Allen sets a screen for Pierce under the basket. Pierce uses it to cut along the baseline to the left corner (i.e. the ball side), where Perk another screen for Pierce.

At this point, the entire Miami defense thinks the play is for Pierce to catch the ball on the left side. Rondo is staring Pierce down as he bounces the ball, like Ryan Leaf telegraphing a pass.

But something else is happening on the right side of the floor. Ray is still standing near the right edge of the paint, and he suddenly cuts up toward the foul line, where Glen Davis is waiting to set him screen at the right elbow.

And Rondo, without warning, picks up his dribble, turns his head toward Ray and fires a pass that way. You can practically hear the Miami D gasping, “OH CRAP! THE PLAY IS OVER THERE!!”

Big Baby nails Ray’s man (Wright again) with a solid screen, so Baby’s guy (Haslem) has to jump out to try and disrupt what would otherwise be an easy Ray elbow jumper. Davis rolls to the hoop uncovered, and Ray finds him with a simple pass that leads to a Baby lay-up. That’s nine points. Ray actually gets the assist for this one.

(4:41): When people say Dwyane Wade can get caught ball-watching, this is what they mean. Wade is guarding Ray in the right corner, but he’s standing on the edge of the paint with his back to Allen and his eyes on Rajon Rondo dribbling on the opposite side of the floor.

Dwyane Wade is literally paying no attention to one of the greatest shooters ever. Ray’s response? He runs across the baseline to the left corner, getting so close to Rajon that Rondo can almost hand him the ball for the open three.

The best part? Wade sees Ray sprinting along the baseline and responds by pointing at Ray, hoping some other Heat player will take him. Wade does not move. Not an inch.

No one takes Ray. Swish.

That’s 12 points in 1:45. If your team scored 12 points every 1:45, they’d finish the game with about 340 points.

And regardless of what the stats say, Ray accounted for every single one of those 12 points.

I want to finish with one thing: A bunch of people Tweeted last night about how glad they were the C’s didn’t trade Allen. I get that. But one outstanding performance in Game 2 of a first-round playoff series does not alone vindicate Danny Ainge’s decision to hang onto Ray or call into question Ainge’s initial decision to shop him.

The goal is to build a championship team, either now or in the future, and two home wins against Miami do not prove the 2010 C’s are a championship team. This team’s problem has been consistency. It has been wonderful to see the 2008 defense for six straight quarters now.

Let’s cross our fingers that this team can bring that defense consistently over several weeks.

Six straight quarters is more than we’ve seen from this team this entire season. That’s pretty good evidence — albeit still not definitive, but then what is? — that they’ve flipped their switch. (Sheed excluded, so far.)

When it’s the Cavs, they will have four secondary options on the floor at all times that are better than Miami’s four (and LeBron is also better than Wade, too). They are also more dangerous from 3. All this is to say, they can penetrate better, spread/space the floor better, pass it around better, knock down shots better, basically the Cavs can cause MUCH more defensive movement and vulnerability.

What happens when the Cavs make that extra pass Miami doesn’t? When they have to rotate a third and a fourth time, getting tired and frustrated? When the Cavs knock down shots the Heat aren’t? When Varejao slams home an offensive rebound?

At this point when the C’s D is truly being tested, if they maintain their energy, intensity, determination, rotations, toughness, effort, etc. and clamp back down, then I would be willing to definitively agree that they are back.

I’m not intentionally trying to be a downer or contrarian here. These two games could not have been scripted better for the C’s, but I simply am not convinced just yet.

Yes it was damn fun, I enjoyed every minute of it and I love Ray Allen more than words can say. I was glad we didn’t trade him and if he’s not in a C’s uniform next year I’ll be a bit sad but I’ll watch him wherever he ends up.

Perry

On the flip side Ray does have those 3-13 nights. But even if it’s not falling the opponent has to account for Ray at all times. Besides the spacing aspect who better to have on the floor when nursing a one possession lead in crunch time?

Holding on to his Bird rights can only help if some team like the Knicks offer a king’s ransom. There is a lot of liquidity out there. He’s admitted though he’d take far less money to stay in Boston because of family obligations. I think there’s good chance he stays, especially with the CBA and potential lockout looming.

No question Danny had to listen to offers this season. The M. Ellis rumor would have been a no brainier, but the Thomas/Hinrich deal and everything else in between were never appealing to me.

There was a rumor floating around that Danny had inquired about Amare Stoudemire after Jameison was trade to Cleveland. If we’re talking about adding pieces during the off season I would think Danny has to find an athletic big akin to AS to compliment Rondo’s skill set.

DeVelaine

I really wouldn’t be surprised to see Ray sign for much less to stay. I think everyone would actually embrace that. Some of the games he’s played in Milwaukee and Seattle really showed that he wasn’t happy in either of those places, but played because he was getting paid to. Maybe winning a ring in his first season here helps, but Ray Allen looks like a happier player in Boston than he has elsewhere in his career.

This is not to take anything away from Ray and not to really disagree with Zach, but a couple of points here:

First, Ray’s +/- on/off are highly elevated relative to other Celtics starters exactly because Ray plays a lot with the second unit AND because over the last two years, he has played a total of more minutes than anyone else on the Celtics. Put simply, Ray is on the court so much that if the Celtics win more than they lose, then Ray is going to have a high +/-. I’m not really convinced that Ray is off the court enough to give significance to his offcourt numbers.

Second, the entire sequence described above was terrific, but it was hardly all Ray. You could easily say that the first two plays were all Perk for setting monster screens and then being smart enough to feed Glenn when a lot of players would have tried to force it to the hoop. Other plays could easily be attributed to Rondo for being smart enough to convince the Heat that the play was elsewhere. Etc. The point is that it was the Celtics offense working together. When their offense clicks, Ray gets a lot of open looks and he helps make things happen. What that whole sequence demonstrated was fantastic team basketball.

@Jason — while Cleveland is definitely better than Miami, there is a basic similarity — one really great player surrounded by lesser players. The seasons’ production numbers for Miami’s next four starters come to a total of about +1.5 per game. For Cleveland’s next four, it’s about +6.5 per game. The difference in production-differential between Lebron and DWade is almost the same (+4.5) as the difference between the rest of the Cavs and the rest of the Heat. That’s how good Lebron is. The rest of the Cavs are better than the rest of the Heat, but not that much better. So in a lot of ways, playing Miami is a very good tuneup for playing Cleveland, and if the Cs continue to play at the level they are playing, then the Cavs aren’t going to beat us either.

Vk

Man Ray Allen is the best.

Perry

@Ray

Rondo lead the team in minutes played with an average of 36; Ray logged in an average of 35. Still too many for sure, but even with the picks and the ball being delivered in the right spot he is delivering the goods.

Imagine his stamina if he were to average 25-30 minutes? He shot nearly 48%, and only averages about 12 attempts/game. His mid range game is solid, and his drives have been assume to watch. Perhaps his shooting percentage from downtown would rise if he played fewer minutes. There is also something to be said about him wearing down the defender who’s constantly chasing him around picks.

Ray has all the makings of a superb sixth man. I thought at 34 Stackhouse would slow down, but like Ray he’s got a lot of basketball left in him.

First, Ray’s +/- on/off are highly elevated relative to other Celtics starters exactly because Ray plays a lot with the second unit AND because over the last two years, he has played a total of more minutes than anyone else on the Celtics. Put simply, Ray is on the court so much that if the Celtics win more than they lose, then Ray is going to have a high +/-. I’m not really convinced that Ray is off the court enough to give significance to his offcourt numbers.

Ray playing a lot with the 2nd unit means it is more difficult for him to maintain the high plus or minus. Plus playing more total minutes doesn’t impact the plus or minus in any particular way. It just matters whether boston is increasing or decreasing the point differential while Ray plays.

Ray Leighton

@John & Perry — I probably didn’t make that as clear as I should have: starters routinely have their on-off +/- go up when they play with the second unit. It’s also why you can’t look at on-off +/- and say, oh this guy on the second unit is playing better than the starter all of the time, so we should play him instead — if you have a good player playing on the second unit, their +/- tends to go up because they are playing against weaker players. If we are playing Orlando, and Vince Carter plays significantly fewer minutes than Ray, than that means that there will be some part of the game when Ray is not playing against Vince Carter. Ray’s +/- is more likely to be elevated during that stretch. So if you have a player playing a lot of minutes, chances are he is with the second unit a lot too, and it may not be fair to compare his +/- against other starters. Obviously, the bench does better because that good player is out on the floor, so it’s sort of circular. +/- works well for one game, but if you are looking across the whole season, the numbers can be misleading.

Don’t get me wrong — I think Ray is great. When Ray is shooting and passing and moving like he did the other night, I just know that we are going to win. And having Ray on the second unit is a boost to the second unit; Ray plays really well with them. I’ve also argued in the past that Ray ought to have fewer minutes because when he is rested, his production is incredible, and I don’t think it always helps the team to have him out there for 35 instead of 25 minutes. I’m just saying that this is a situation where on-off +/- may not be reliable. If you look at production stats, Ray is 4th on the team to KG, Paul, and Rajon. That’s still great company and no shame to be 4th. I will be very happy if we bring Ray back next season.

Good post. I see your point. Many of us were using the same analogy in Sheed’s case. We assumed his differential would be well over positive since he was a legit NBA starter coming off the bench. One would figure he’d be head and shoulders above the opponent’s second line players. Too bad it hasn’t worked out that way in terms of wins and losses.

Really the true measuring stick will follow this series. Ray in particular will be a marked man. Cleveland has that kind of firepower (Parker/Moon/West) that could wear him down.