On the face of it, Ed Miliband’s non-referendum pledge held a clear upside and a clear downside for Labour.

Matching David Cameron’s guarantee of an in-out referendum would mean that if he won, Miliband would have to spend a good deal of his premiership campaigning to keep Britain in the European Union – a battle he might lose. He would be the Prime Minister who took Britain out of the EU, and would probably have to resign. And all because of a promise he had never wanted to make in the first place. (more…)

The policy contained in the Prime Minister’s speech of ten days ago was a good answer to the question “what should we do about Europe?” It was never, I hope, supposed to answer the question “what will ensure we win?” If anyone expected an immediate leap in the Conservative Party’s popularity, the evidence should by now have disabused them of the notion. Polling I completed earlier this week shows little change in the bigger political picture.

Whatever David Cameron said today was going to displease somebody. For those who want to leave the EU tomorrow he could never go far enough; for those who want to stay at any cost, including his coalition partners, any suggestion that the British people might be allowed to decide for themselves would be a dangerous manoeuvre.

Given the constraints, I think the PM has hit on a pretty reasonable plan. A Conservative government will legislate immediately after the next election for a referendum. It will negotiate for a new settlement with the EU, and the people will give their verdict in the first half of the parliament.

Last month the UK Independence Party came second in two parliamentary by-elections, in Rotherham and Middlesbrough. This prompted its leader, Nigel Farage, to claim his party was the new third force in British politics. UKIP now regularly pips the Liberal Democrats to third place in national voting intention polls. The rise of UKIP causes a good deal of angst among the bigger parties, particularly the Conservatives. It is not hard to see why: my research finds that 12% of those who voted Tory in 2010 now say they would vote UKIP in an election tomorrow. Half of all those who would consider voting UKIP supported the Conservatives at the last election.

Many have suggested antidotes to the rise of UKIP. These usually flow from assumptions about what the attraction of UKIP actually is. Yet these assumptions are often mistaken. (more…)

The government is having its most difficult month so far, and the voters have noticed. After troubles over party funding, conflicting advice to the public on a potential fuel strike, and a series of controversies arising from last month’s Budget, recent polls show the Labour lead solidifying as confidence in the coalition declines. One notable feature of the shifting polls is that, according to the most recent YouGov/Sun surveys, the UK Independence Party is edging ahead of the Liberal Democrats.

If there is one thing that unites Conservatives it is the desire to win the next general election outright. Certain things follow from this. The first is that we need more votes at the next election than we received at the last. This means attracting people who voted for a different party last year. This in turn imposes two requirements: to address the things they care about most, and to show that we are changing the things that put them off voting Conservative in the past.

Links

Lord Ashcroft's Website
- Lord Ashcroft’s main website details his biography and work in the areas of business, politics, philanthropy, gallantry, publishing and journalism.

Victoria Cross Heroes
- First published in 2006, Victoria Cross Heroes was written to mark the 150th anniversary of the creation of the VC, along with many heroes awarded Britain and the Commonwealth’s highest decoration for bravery in the face of the enemy.

Special Forces Heroes
- First published in 2008, Special Forces Heroes continued Lord Ashcroft’s celebration of bravery by telling the stories of valour by the recipients of his Special Forces’ medal collection.

George Cross Heroes
- First published in 2010, George Cross Heroes told the remarkable stories behind the awards of the GC, Britain and the Commonwealth’s highest award for civilian bravery.

Heroes of the Skies
- First published in 2012, Heroes of the Skies is the fourth book in Lord Ashcroft’s bravery series and tells the stories of more than 80 British, Commonwealth and other Allied airmen awarded medals for gallantry in the air.

Special Ops Heroes
- First published in 2014, Special Ops Heroes is the fifth book in Lord Ashcroft’s bravery series and recounts the inspirational stories behind more than 50 groups of gallantry and service medals that are part of his Special Forces medals collection.

The Lord Ashcroft Gallery
- The gallery at the Imperial War Museum in London was opened in November 2010 and houses the world’s largest collection of VCs, amassed by Lord Ashcroft, along with VCs and GCs already in the care of the museum.