China’s empty city

The blog has come across an interesting example of the impact of China’s credit growth, courtesy of Merryn Somerset Webb in the Financial Times. She highlights a YouTube video (link above) which investigates the new city of Ordos.

The old city has become known as “China’s Texas”, because of the recent wealth generated from the local coal industry. It claims the highest GDP/capita in China after Shanghai. Over the past 5 years, this has led the authorities to build a new city, 30km away, to house 1 million residents. Now the new city is complete, but it is apparently empty.

From the government’s point of view, it’s a success, because it has made a significant contribution to GDP growth. And the housing has all been bought by speculators, who believe (as we used to in the West) that prices always rise over time. For them, as an academic working in China notes during the video, “its not a place to live, but to put your money“.

Webb closes her analysis with the disturbing comment that, according to the US National Bureau of Economic Research, the best indicator of a coming financial crisis is “rapid credit growth“. It certainly adds to the worries about the sustainability of chemical and polymer demand expressed by my fellow-blogger, John Richardson, last week.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.

The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.

Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.