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PROBLEMS PILE UP AS GOP SEEKS SENATE MAJORITY -- David Catanese and Manu Raju take an in-depth look at how Republicans might blow their shot at seizing the Senate majority for the second cycle in a row: “In 2012, the early exuberance about GOP prospects was based largely on simple math: Democrats were defending 23 seats, some of which looked clearly vulnerable, while Republicans were only defending 10 seats. But, less than three weeks before voting, few people in Republican circles are feeling exuberant. Insiders in both parties put the chances of a GOP Senate takeover at less than 50-50. Assuming the current leader in polls in every Senate race hold — and a couple key races are literally tied — Democrats would still retain a very slim majority.

-- “The slide in Republican expectations — from optimism at the start to public second-guessing and private recriminations at the finish line — are due to more than bad luck and a couple of underperforming candidates, although both of those played an important role. The GOP’s Senate challenges more broadly are a reflection of a party that simply cannot be controlled from Washington down — but also can’t reliably produce good candidates and winning strategies from the grassroots up. The Senate takeover struggle of 2012 has revealed a central leadership that is unwilling, and perhaps unable, to control its base — enfeebled by fear of tea party activists, conservative talk show hosts, and big-money outsiders who can swing primary races.”http://politi.co/QvzyXH

DEMS: MAJORITY WILL HINGE ON WOMEN – McClatchy’s Rob Hotakainen writes: “When Patty Murray first won election to the U.S. Senate in November 1992, women were a rarity, holding only two seats. … Today 17 of the 100 senators are women. And after leading a two-year recruiting campaign to elect more women, Murray predicts that 2013 will be a historic year, bringing a record high number of female senators to Capitol Hill. One thing’s certain: Five closely contested races involving women whom Murray recruited to run – in Massachusetts, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Nevada and Hawaii – will go a long way in deciding which party controls the Senate next year.”

-- “Overall, party leaders are backing 11 Democratic women as candidates this year, the most in history. That includes six incumbents who are considered shoo-ins or leading in the polls. A 12th Democratic woman is running in Maine, but without the endorsement of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. On the Republican side, six women are running this year, in Nebraska, New Mexico, Hawaii, Connecticut and the Democratic strongholds of California and New York. But two longtime incumbents – Olympia Snowe of Maine and Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas – are retiring.” http://bit.ly/VdEto1

IN GA. RACE, IT’S BROUN VS. DARWIN – AP’s Ray Henry and Russ Bynum write: “Having denounced evolution as a lie ‘straight from the pit of hell,’ Republican Rep. Paul Broun has won himself a new political opponent: Charles Darwin. An ultraconservative congressman whose district includes the University of Georgia campus, Broun told a Baptist church last month that evolution, embryology and the Big Bang theory were lies spread by scientists out to erode people’s faith in Jesus Christ. He also claimed the Earth is roughly 9,000 years, a view held by fundamentalist Christians based on biblical accounts of creation. Now scientists are questioning whether Broun, a medical doctor and a Baptist from Athens, should serve on the House Science, Space and Technology Committee if he rejects widely accepted scientific ideas. And a talk radio host in nearby Atlanta is trying to rally voters to cast write-in votes for Darwin, the English naturalist who first published his theory of evolution in 1859. Religious fundamentalists like Broun damage the Republican brand, said Neal Boortz, the libertarian-leaning radio host who has a strong following among Georgia conservatives. ‘It makes Republicans look like knee-dragging, still-tending, tobacco-spitting Neanderthals,’ Boortz said. http://wapo.st/R1zi4a

BLOOMBERG PLEDGES MILLIONS FOR NEW SUPER PAC -- Raymond Hernandez reports on A1 of the New York Times: New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, “a billionaire and a registered independent, expects to spend from $10 million to $15 million of his money in highly competitive state, local and Congressional races. The money would be used to pay for a flurry of advertising on behalf of Republican, Democratic and independent candidates who support three of his biggest policy initiatives: legalizing same-sex marriage, enacting tougher gun laws and overhauling schools. Among those whom Mr. Bloomberg will support are former Gov. Angus King, an independent running for the United States Senate in Maine; State Senator Gloria Negrete McLeod, who is challenging a fellow Democrat, Representative Joe Baca of California, who the mayor believes has been weak on gun-control; and Representative Bob Dold, a Republican from Illinois who has backed gun-control measures.” http://nyti.ms/RIVfIa

COULD REID, ROMNEY WORK TOGETHER? – The Las Vegas Sun’s Karoun Demirjian asks that very question: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s “steady sniping at Republican Mitt Romney has inspired an angry exchange of accusations over everything from their economic plans to their undisclosed tax returns to whose politics are more exemplary of their shared Mormon faith. It would be priceless political theater for Democrats, if not for one gnawing caveat: These two might someday have to work together. …

-- “Reid’s task won’t be to convince his caucus to promote the president’s agenda-- instead, he will need them to keep a last line of defense against the programs Romney wants to repeal. Democratic insiders were fairly certain that Reid, even if offered enticing trade-offs, would not be open to dealmaking that might pare back the healthcare or financial reform bills. And they were equally adamant that Reid would not agree to back off his insistence that tax increases be part of a package to avoid the fiscal cliff, at any price. More likely, both Republicans and Democrats surmised, Reid’s horse-trading instincts would surface in policy areas that were under-addressed in the last Congress, such as a comprehensive energy bill, or on education.” http://bit.ly/T2tGd2

CEOS ISSUE HARSH WARNING TO CONGRESS ON ‘FISCAL CLIFF’ – Zachary A. Goldfarb writes for WaPo: “Sixteen of the nation’s largest financial services firms warned President Obama and Congress in a letter on Thursday that interest rates could spike significantly if they do not come to an agreement to stop the end-year series of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts known as the ‘fiscal cliff.’ Goldman Sachs chief executive Lloyd Blankfein, JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon, Bank of America chief Brian Moynihan and 13 other top executives signed on to a letter demanding prompt action. Without it, they warned, the economy could be hit hard and the United States could suffer a second ratings downgrade.” http://wapo.st/QvXR7PRead the letter: http://bit.ly/QvXIBy

TRANSITIONS: SHAHEEN AIDE JOINS STARTUP -- Faryl Ury, who has served as press secretary for Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) for the past two years, is heading to San Francisco to become the corporate communications manager for Square, a mobile-payment startup headed by Twitter creator Jack Dorsey that provides businesses credit card swipers that plug into smartphones. She previously worked as a social media editor and television producer for the Associated Press in Washington.

WaPo, A1, “A humbler, more cautious Allen,” By Marc Fisher: “Six years ago, then-U.S. Sen. [George] Allen (R) — now in a tight race with former governor Timothy M. Kaine (D) to regain his seat — found himself portrayed in news reports and voters’ minds as a colossally insensitive brute, a senator who publicly slurred an Indian American man who was working for his opponent at a campaign event, calling him ‘macaca.’ … The past six years have not exactly been a nightmare for George Allen, but for a man not given to introspection, this has been a tough time. It’s in his voice, more subdued now, even at campaign rallies. It’s in his demeanor, which friends and foes alike say has grown cautious, steering away from the backslapping and kidding of the happy warrior, the candidate Democrats as well as Republicans called one of the best retail politicians they’d ever seen.” http://wapo.st/Qu2otP

-- At 7 p.m. ET, Allen and Kaine meet in Blacksburg for the last of five debates. Live on CSPAN.

-- Also on CSPAN: At 4 p.m., Republican Linda McMahon and Democrat Chris Murphy face off in a Connecticut Senate debate. At 8 p.m., Republican Tommy Thompson and Democrat Tammy Baldwin go head to head in Wisconsin.

FEISTY SENATE DEBATE IN FLORIDA – Adam Smith writes for the Tampa Bay Times: “Florida's sleepy U.S. Senate race saw a jolt of energy Wednesday night as Connie Mack IV came charging at Democrat Bill Nelson in their first and only televised U.S. Senate debate. Mack accused Nelson of chronic tax-raising, of taking President Barack Obama's side over Florida Medicare beneficiaries, and even using cows to exploit a tax loophole. The 45-year-old Fort Myers congressman looked confident, stayed firmly on message and rarely let facts get in the way of his attacks on the 70-year-old incumbent senator. … Partly because the rules required no responses longer than 1 minute 15 seconds, and partly because Nelson and Mack spent most of the night ripping one another or not directly answering questions, the debate produced little beyond quick sound bites on policy.” http://bit.ly/VdYNW4

HILL SEES SPIKE IN HARASSMENT, DISCRIMINATION CLAIMS -- Seung Min Kim writes for POLITICO: “Nearly 200 claims of harassment and discrimination on Capitol Hill were filed in fiscal 2011 — a number that has more than tripled over a five-year span and at times led to private, taxpayer-funded cash settlements totaling hundreds of thousands of dollars. Of the 196 claims that were filed with congressional authorities during the fiscal year, 101 included allegations involving race, according to a new report. The next biggest batch of complaints involved gender-based discrimination and harassment, with 43 claims, while 23 claims involved disabilities and 21 involved age. In fiscal 2007, there were just 64 discrimination and harassment claims filed. The statistics come from a report released Thursday by the Office of Compliance, a little-known agency on Capitol Hill that oversees workplace issues for the more than 30,000 people who work in the legislative branch.” http://politi.co/T2rvGi

-- Seung Min also reports that parts of the Capitol complex are a nightmare for people with disabilities. http://politi.co/Tf2oSF

Democrats in the nine toughest Senate races have raised nearly $60 million in the 3rd quarter, The Hill reports. http://bit.ly/QvYTRj

** COURTHOUSE OR CASH MACHINE? – On Wednesday, October 24, the U.S. Chamber Institute for Legal Reform’s annual summit will feature keynote remarks from Mayor Rudy Giuliani and a discussion of the 2012 elections with pollster Scott Rasmussen, Sen. Rick Santorum, and Gov. Ed Rendell. Visit www.LegalReformSummit.com to learn more and to register.

GOOD THURSDAY MORNING, October 18, 2012, and welcome to The Huddle, your play-by-play preview of the day’s congressional news. Send tips, suggestions, comments, complaints and corrections to swong@politico.com. If you don't already, please follow me on Twitter @scottwongDC.

My new followers include but are not limited to @ember17 and @libbybaney.

McGOVERN ‘NO LONGER RESPONSIVE’ – AP reports: “The family of former U.S. Sen. George McGovern says the 90-year-old is “no longer responsive” in hospice care. McGovern’s family issued a statement Wednesday afternoon through South Dakota’s Avera McKennan Hospital. His daughter, Ann McGovern, earlier told The Associated Press that her father is ‘nearing the end’ and appears restful and peaceful. She says it’s a blessing that she and other family members are able to be with him. McGovern was the Democratic presidential candidate who lost to President Richard Nixon in 1972 in a historic landslide. He was a member of the U.S. House from 1957 to 1961 and a U.S. senator from 1963 to 1981, and considered a leader in his party’s liberal wing during that time. He also ran for president in 1968 and 1984.” http://politi.co/RGew9E

IN OHIO, MEMBERS DROWNED OUT BY ADS – Roll Call’s Shira Toeplitz reports from Medina that Reps. Jim Renacci (R) and Betty Sutton (D) are struggling to get their message out amid the tidal wave of presidential TV ads: “The Member-vs.-Member battle is one of the most competitive and expensive this redistricting cycle. But in northeastern Ohio, the contest is an afterthought. The presidential campaign and a top-tier Senate race dominate the Cleveland airwaves and the political mind capacity of local voters. There’s little oxygen left for a House race — even one as contested as this. That’s good news for Renacci — and bad for Sutton — in a district that Republicans drew to win. Less than three weeks until Election Day, the contest remains highly competitive, and Roll Call continues to rate it as a Tossup. But Sutton has a greater hurdle in a district that’s close to completely new to her.” http://bit.ly/T2yeQB

FORGET JOBS. WHAT ABOUT GOD? – The Wall Street Journal’s Douglas Belkin in St. Louis: “In a 13-minute speech at a campaign stop this week, Missouri's Republican senatorial candidate, Rep. Todd Akin, never mentioned jobs or the economy. He did, however, mention God—31 times. ‘God is the start of it all,’ Mr. Akin told about 150 attendees at the ‘Missouri Women Standing with Todd Akin’ rally Monday afternoon. Mr. Akin, a six-term representative from the St. Louis area, has long been a favorite of evangelical Christians who support his positions against abortion and same-sex marriage. Now, two months after he triggered a national uproar by saying that female bodies can avoid pregnancy in cases of ‘legitimate rape,’ Mr. Akin has retreated deeper into the protection of that evangelical base. …With the party establishment distancing itself from the congressman, Mr. Akin has favored churches for events, relied on home-schoolers for volunteers and filled parking lots with cars bearing bumper stickers trumpeting creationism. The size of the evangelical vote in Missouri means that strategy isn't necessarily doomed: White evangelical Christians accounted for 38% of the 2.9 million voters in 2008, according to exit polls.” http://on.wsj.com/WDy6bw

BOEHNER, OBAMA HAVEN’T TALKED ‘CLIFF’ – Tax hikes, spending cuts and the deadline to raise the debt ceiling all hit at the end of the year, but Speaker John Boehner hasn’t spoken to President Obama at all about the “fiscal cliff,” Jake Sherman reports. “That’s what the speaker told his House colleagues on a conference call Wednesday — he and Obama haven’t spoken since July. It’s a striking admission from the nation’s top elected Republican and clear evidence that the most urgent legislative concerns are frozen until after the election. A Boehner aide notes that the speaker did talk to Obama in September, but the topic was foreign policy, not the fiscal cliff. … ‘It’s all about the election,” Boehner said, according to several participants on the call who described the discussion to POLITICO. The message: The election is stalling everything. He reiterated, according to sources, that the House has passed legislation to replace the automatic spending cuts and impending tax rate increases, while the Senate hasn’t.” http://politi.co/RIKFB4

WEDNESDAY’S TRIVIA WINNER – Tom Flanagin was first to answer that the Librarian of Congress, James Hadley Billington, has served in that role for 25 years, a period in which five presidents have occupied the White House.

TODAY’S TRIVIA – Which current congressman had previously worked as a press secretary on Capitol Hill before taking over his family business running radio stations? And which lawmaker did he previously work for? First to correctly answer gets a mention in the next day’s Huddle. Email me at swong@politico.com.

GET HUDDLE emailed to your Blackberry, iPhone or other mobile device each morning. Just enter your email address where it says “Sign Up.” http://www.politico.com/huddle/

** COURTHOUSE OR CASH MACHINE? – The U.S. Chamber Institute for Legal Reform’s annual summit will feature keynote remarks by Mayor Rudy Giuliani as well as a discussion of the 2012 elections with pollster Scott Rasmussen, Sen. Rick Santorum, and Gov. Ed Rendell. They will be joined by key state attorneys general and Beltway powerbrokers for a conversation on the state of the American courtroom. The event promises to spark debate, with political heavyweights and opinion leaders taking on the critical issues facing the legal reform environment. The event will be held on Wednesday, October 24, at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington, D.C. Visit www.LegalReformSummit.com for the agenda and to register.