Phillies Blog, Baseball News, Trade Rumors & Spirits

Friday, July 03, 2009

Declare your independence from the 2009 Phillies

Shut off the
TV and go to your picnics, and if you get the urge for some
baseball, revisit the prime rib of '08 and forgo the dirty water dog of
'09.

The Phillies are a lips-and-hooves-filled 39-37, fattened by a
10-2 record against the Nationals and a two-month binge by a
37-year-old outfielder. Their best pitcher is a rookie. We celebrate when the lead-off hitter gets a hit. The
Phils, now tied with the Marlins in the National League East, are no
better than rest of their counterparts caught in the divisional logjam.
Good pitching will prevail, which is how the Braves swept the Phillies, and is the reason the Phils' shallow hold on the division is now gone. If the Phillies hope to repeat as champions, they need to close the lid on this entire first half and flush.

67 Comments

How was Rollins' second hit last night? His first hit looked like a typical slumping JRoll ground out that somehow got through. It was a pitch that old Rollins would have lined up the middle for a base hit. Seems he's trying to pull the ball way too much.

I'm not going to go the "it's ok we're b/c we're the WFC" route like some, but if you want to find a silver lining, it's that we're some how, some way still in first place, albeit tied. But that doesn't make me feel better about the next few months and our ability to hold onto the lead.

Read a couple of places where some of the beat writers feel that Amaro will make a trade to help the club this year. This worries me greatly since Ruben is in charge and his track record is already spotty at best. I've always been a "screw the farm system, let's go for it" kind of fan, but I'm not so sure this is the year to do that since there doesn't seem to be any legit help out there that is available. Maybe we can catch lightening in a bottle again i.e. Joe Blanton, but that not only seems doubtful, but the price tag would probably be higher.

Related note, what is Zack Duke's contract like? He seems to have been around long enough to be close to arbitration and after a really good season a few years back, followed by a couple of awful ones, he's pitching really well this year. Might be the kind of guy who could offer legit help at hopefully, not an insane price. The Pirates might be willing to deal with us again, since they've already apparently fleeced us once this year.

Heard Joe Sheahan on a radio show last night and he was speaking about Rollins.

He said he has a lot of miles on him, as a shortstop who has played everyday for close to a decade now. I think he, like myself, is speculating that Rollins isn't in a slump. He is just getting old and his best days are way behind him. He said he looks old and his swing has gotten very slow.

Just an interesting observation from a outside source.

The Phils pitching gets a lot of flack (and some of it is merited). But, in my mind, this is a offensive-built team. The offense carried them into the playoffs last year (although the pitching won them a lot of games in the playoffs, when the bats went silent a lot).

And in too many games in the past month or so, the offense has checked out. Too many 1 or 2 run games. Ibanez being out has killed them, no doubt. But, this offense has let them down too often.

The starting pitching the past month or so, hasn't been terrible. Happ has been rock solid. Blanton has kept his team in the game most nights. Moyer has been better and has gotten closer to his usual form of the past 2 years. Hamels (despite his recent slump) has had several good starts go for nothing. And, the 5th starter replacing Myers (Carpenter and Bastardo) did give them 3 wins.

Its been the offense falling off and the bullpen falling apart, that has truly led to this slide. Of all the concerns coming into the season, these two were not at the top of the list. It was the starting rotation. Now in my mind, that has completely reversed (although another starter, whether from inside or outside is very much needed).

The key to the 2nd half and getting back to a playoff team, will be guys like Rollins, Howard, Werth and Ibanez producing and producing on a more consistant basis. RFD Jr has to give them a threat off the bench from the right side and give one of those 3 starters some rest from time-to-time. Utley has to stay fresh and healthy through the dog days. The offense has to start bashing teams again and has to get aggressive again. That will take pressure off the starters and the bullpen.

And, the bullpen has to come together. Lidge needs to quit worrying about his knee and failing, and just pitch aggressively again. Madson needs to get back to throwing his fastball and change. Romero needs to find the strikezone. Durbin and Park need to be multi-inning guys in the middle.

And, if a trade is made, I think it might be more likely to be in the bullpen at this point. There are some old parts in that pen. Maybe a fresher and younger arm needs to be added. It would certainly be cheaper in this tough market, to add a bullpen guy then a starter. With 25 teams still in contention for a playoff spot, finding a solid starter (one that is better than you already have) will be very tough.

The pitching has been very problematic, no question. Still, I will be a broken record about the offense under Milt Thompson. Look at our last 18 games (4-14 record). Take away the 31 runs in our three blowout wins, and we've scored 45 runs in 15 games. With an average of three runs per game, even remarkably good pitching would have us in this same predicament. Our lineup, on paper, should be able to overcome even mediocre pitching performances more often than not. So, why does Milt Thompson continue to get a free pass? Why does no one even question him or make a critical analysis of this?

The whining on this site has officially reached an all-time high. The trashing of Madson last night was ridiculously over-the-top. Now pitchers aren't even allowed to have bad stretches anymore? Give me a break. I hope it's safe to say that the comments on here aren't representative of the majority of fans.

On the other hand, Madson has blown a save and a tie in the home series against the Jays, a save in the Orioles (a 2 homer inning), and a save and a tie in the recent Braves series. There is a lot of blame to go around (e.g. Rollins) but Maon is the primary target

I sense a trip to the DL with some mysterious injury so that he can mentally recover from a brusied psyche.

Yeah, Happ has really been pretty solid. When he does gets himself in trouble with control, he seems to have the necessary composure to avoid any meltdowns. Once upon a time Kendrick had that same knack for surviving jams and quickly lost it, hopefully Happ continues to progress with his control as he has the last few starts instead of relying on being able to squeeze out of trouble--as that doesnt usually last for long(livan hernandez maybe).

My concern rigfht now is that the Phillies will panic, trade Michael Taylor for some Kyle Loshe type, miss or get knocked out early from the playoffs and spend the next 10 seasons watching him terroize major league pitching on the way to a Cooperstown career( a la Sandberg)

Donnellon had a good column in the DN yesterday reminding everyone about all the hand-wringing happening at this time last year: Eaton, Gordon, Howard's slump, Myers' collapse etc. The team was only a couple games above .500.

Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it. Those who have a 15-second attention span (i.e. 80% of Beerleaguer posters) are in a feedback loop.

When things were going well, say a month or so ago, I posted about how we might be watching the maturation of a team that could be more dangerous than the 2008 champs because they had that quiet confidence of knowing they had won before and were able to do so again. That they might somehow be able to avoid a prolonged slump this time around.

That seems like a long time ago, and admittedly they seem a bit lost right now. Over this past series I kept having flashbacks to Roberson losing fly balls a couple of years ago against Atlanta and having sunglasses delivered to him in the middle of the inning.

There are certainly objective reasons for this slump as Jason and others here have detailed. Like Doc, despite the frustration of the past few weeks, I'll be watching some this weekend, griping about the Phils to my son, my brother-in-law, and his son; and despite myself, getting totally vested in them turning this around against the Mets. A series win would do a lot to wash away the gloom.

But J-Roll better be careful. After the Atlanta series, this might not be the time to be stylin' with the Red Bullmobile or whatever it is. The Phans might just not be in the mood for that right about now.

From today's Inquirer:
The Phillies are considering bringing Brett Myers back as a reliever.

Myers underwent hip surgery in early June and was finally cleared to begin a throwing program on Wednesday. Working him through as a reliever will significantly speed up his rehab. "Of course, it takes longer to work up to 100 pitches than it does to pitch an inning, but we have to listen to the doctors and see how things go with Brett," pitching coach Rich Dubee said Friday.

The Pen has cost us dearly this year. Remember how great they were last year? Phils were a perfect 79-0 when leading after 8 innings during the regular season; when the Phils led after 7 innings, they were an amazing 65-9. This year, Lidge and Madson have both come back down to earth with quite a thud. The Phils have 13 blown saves already(compared to just 19 saves). The Phils are only 31-6 when leading after 8 innings, and 29-6 when leading after 7 innings. Hopefully things will improve after "The Pen" concludes this week on the MLB Network. Rich Dubee was right to be worried about that show-"The pitching coach said he had his reservations when he learned MLB Productions wanted to film the Phillies' bullpen. "I like to fly under the radar," Dubee explained. "It always seems like when you start to try to bring notice to yourself, the baseball gods catch up to you."

That article sums up the Philly stereotype quite nicely. Granted, we're sucking pretty hard right now, but we did spend most of the glorious WFC season chasing. Come to think of it, we spent a great deal of 1980 chasing as well.

Perhaps a first place tie with Florida with the Mets nipping at our heels is the rocket up the ass that this team needs.

At any rate, I will be shutting off my tv for the 4th, but only because I'll be at the game holding a dirty water dog...and still bitching to whomever will listen that Jimmy Rollins is not a leadoff hitter (whether he's hot or not).

Good. I've been saying off and on for the past month that now is the time to sign Myers to a cheap extension and put him in the bullpen. He seemed to be happier. A pen of Romero, Madson, Myers and Lidge would be quite a nice thing to have for the next few seasons.

Anybody have any pics of Jimmy Rollins in the Red Bull-mobile? I need something in the medicine chest to induce vomiting.

Clout: Most rational people recognize the Phillies typically go through these mid-summer lulls, stay within striking distance and build steam in September. And everyone know the division isn’t great. The problem - as you've identified with Lidge, and others seem to see with Rollins and others - is whether they actually have the players to actually get them back to October, let alone make noise once they’re there. I have a hard dime seeing that.

I note, as everyone else, that this is the time of the year the Phils usually suck. But I am nto accepting it clamly. To me this is a failure of management. Anytime one or two players are in a slump or injured that is the law of averages. But when the whole team is in a dive? I am sorry that is management. Although I congratulated Cholly on the WS last eyar and he deserved his ring, if you look at my posts going back several years, you will find that I was never impressed by him.

Everyone says the players like him etc. but his job is not to be their friend his job is to manage the team. He is out of his depths.

This is a great opportunity for management to come out and say its not working the team needs a change and to just do it. But I know I am wasting the electeronic ink--its not happening.

"and the bullpen falling apart, that has truly led to this slide. Of all the concerns coming into the season, these two were not at the top of the list. It was the starting rotation."

Why did the bullpen fall apart? One could argue for the heavy use right out the gate of the season as our starters were a tragic excuse... often not getting out of the 5th inning. Lidge wasn't really right from the get-go... but now the bullpen seems to be gassed from being overexerted from trying to mop up Blanton/Moyer/CHoP/whatever other dreck was thrown out there. So while you just point right to the bullpen (which has been bad during the stretch) I'd look at what is probably the cause of the bullpen being unreliable during this stretch--the starters (which have been bad all season).

The Phillies' offense has this reputation of being slump-prone because they rely on the homerun ball and don't hit for high team average. But here are some facts. The Phillies have been held to 3 or fewer runs in 27 of 76 games (35.5%). That is almost exactly in line with other top offensive teams, including most of the top scoring teams in the AL.

The Rockies, Dodgers & Brewers are the NL's 3 highest scoring teams after the Phillies. The Dodgers have been held to 3 or fewer runs in 29 out 79 games (36.7%). The Brewers 28 times in 79 games (35.4%). The Rockies, 30 times in 78 games (38.4%).

Even in the AL, baseball's highest scoring team -- the Rays -- have been held to 3 or fewer runs in 30 out of 80 games (37.5%). For the RedSox, it's 27 times in 78 games (34.6%). For the Angels, 26 times in 76 games (34.2%). So contrary to Denny's post, it's NOT about the offense. The offense has been playing poorly but, over the course of the season, the number of poor games they've had is no more than most other strong offensive teams.

The difference between the Phillies & the teams I just listed is in the results of those games where they score 3 or fewer runs. The Phillies' record in those games is an abysmal 1-26. Contrast that to the Dodgers, who are 13-16. Or to Anaheim, which is 8-18. Or Boston, which is 6-21. Or Milwaukee, 7-21. Or Colorado, 8-22.

If the Phillies were, say, 6-21, in the games where their offense was shut down, they'd have a 5-game lead right now & would be playing .578 ball -- on pace to win 2 more games than last year. But you can't win those type of games when your starting pitching can't keep runs off the score board and, even when they do, the bullpen can't hold leads.

Additionally, the Phillies broke out of their Interleague woes in '08 by sweeping Atlanta in Atlanta (before dropping 3 of 4 to the Mets at home).

This season the Phillies got themselves swept in Atlanta in advance of their 3 game home set w/ NY.

It's still way too soon too be crying doom & gloom for the rest of the year, but the signs thus far are almost all bad. I think how the Phillies perform during these next 10 games (which, unfortunately, are all at home) leading up to the break may well play a large part in determining their position come the latter half of the season -- that is to say, will they be in control of their playoff destiny, or will they need a lot of help from the rest of the division?

PS: What we scoffed at last year was the Mets troll who came on the board and declared that the Mets were actually better than the Phillies because all those bullpen losses didn't count. Unlike your Mets troll friend, I am not contending that the Phillies are better than their record reflects, or that these losses somehow don't count. And, contrary to your post, I am not making any "argument" at all, so there is nothing to "scoff at." I am merely making an observation about the reasons for the Phillies' problems.

2. Blanton goes on the type of strong, sustained run of which he's more than capable;

3. Happ does not have a significant second-half letdown;

4. They find, at the very least, one serviceable starter, whether through their minor league system or through a trade; and

5. The bullpen starts pitching like they did in 2008.

I actually think the first 4 items on the list have a decent chance of occurring. I'm more pessimistic about Item 5. Madson will get himself straightened out, but Lidge just doesn't look right this year, Romero's wildness makes him like a game of Russian Roulette, Park is Park, Eyre & Condrey are injured and it's questionable whether they can be effective when they get back, and Durbin needs to quit trying to strike everyone out & go back to being the ground ball pitcher that made him so effective last year. The rest of the bullpen guys aren't even worth mentioning.

Really, the problems all start with Lidge. If he doesn't get right, the bullpen will struggle all year. Even in a weak division, some team will eventually emerge, and it's a pretty strong bet that it will be a team with a strong bullpen.

The Phillies ERA pre-All Star a year ago was 3.90 and they finished at 3.88. To date, in 2009, we have a 4.86 ERA. That's as simple an explanation for our problems as their is. We can harp about Rollins, Howard's approach to lefties and our bench, but the truth is that only a best in the league offense from gate to gate could overcome our woes on the mound. We've had some horrendous early inning performances from starters and double digit blown saves by July 1st. That's why this team has struggled and that's why it's been so frustrating. In fact, this team reminds me more of the 2005-2007 Phillies than the 2008 version.

However, we need to keep some perspective. This season is young still and like the past two, it is likely to be decided towards the end of the season, if not on the final day. We've had our rash of injuries, so my law of averages says we should be getting and staying healthy sometime in July. August and September have been good to us over the past few seasons. I've got plenty of faith they will be again.

I'm of the opinion that this team needs a wake up call. Either a significant eye opening trade or a big internal shake up.

No matter how much UC rants and raves, or the phans boo, or the team leaders try to inspire, the situation is all too familiar. Like a parent trying to scold a teenager. When they were young it worked, as they got older it had less and less effect until it eventually all the screaming and yelling was for naught because in the end there were no tangible repercussions.

Well now we have no choice but to kick the teen out onto the street to get our point across and have him understand we are serious.

There are 2 options as I mentioned above. Either a blockbuster trade involving JRoll and or/Vic and or Werth (unlikley) or a complete shake up by Charlie.

i.e. Everybody has to star over and earn their jobs. No closer, setup, or specialist. No leadoff , clean up, or table setter. Get them out of their comfort zones because, lets face it, if they are sucking this bad in their comfort zones how much worse could it be outside that zone?

I think this will not only light a spark of urgency ( nobody is safe and they're serious this time) and add a challenge, an objective within the season to strive for.

Risky? Yes but at least the results couldn't possible be any worse then the current situation and it would be interesting to watch...Lidge in the 6th, Jimmy batting 6th?

I'm not even a Phillies fan, I'm a Mets fan, and I have no clue how you guys are complaining! At least you get to see what its like to have a major league line-up that can hit a thing I've heard is called a homerun? (is it one or two wors, I wouldn't know they don't exist in Metsland)...your still in first place, and you just won a freaking world series. so shut the fu** up and hold your tears back after thee Mets triple A team comes in and crushes your Single a pitching staff, and appreciate the fact you have a team that has over a 50% chance of scoring a run on any given day.

People that bitch about the Phils are in a no win situation compared to those staying calm and saying it's just a lull, a slump, or something like that. Because even if the gloom-and-doomers are right, they don't want to say "told ya so!" come season's end, because that means they were right and the Phils ended up sucking.

You'd have to wonder how long the front office is going to tolerate Charlie's blind stubbornness.

The WFC will buy him immunity for a couple of seasons, but it won't last forever (see Ozark, Danny). With the money that ownership has invested in this team, they may be a bit quicker to pull the trigger.

Carson: As a card-carrying member of the gloom-and-doomer club, I would point out that there is a substantial middle ground between the belief that what has happened over the last 3 weeks is a permanent state of affairs and the belief that what has happened over the last 3 weeks is totally insignificant.

The Phillies are not going to continue playing as poorly as they have over the last 3 weeks. But the pitching problems which led to this melt-down are not imaginary or temporary. The starting pitching has been horrible all year & the bullpen has a ton of injuries, too many old pitchers, & really no one except Madson who has a consistent historical track record of righting himself. Just as there is a segment of Beerleaguer which ascribes way too much significance to short-term events, there is also a segment of extremists on the opposite end, who think that, because a season is 162 games long, no one is ever allowed to form opinions until the last 2 weeks of the season.

Domingo Santana of the Phillies' GCL team already hit his 3rd homerun of the season today in just the 7th game. That puts him 2nd in the league in homers and RBIs. He's also hitting .291 with an OPS over 1100. Why is any of this worth mentioning when it has only been 7 games? Because the guy is 16 years old.

I have hope for a repeat. I figure they will hover around the top of the division and get hot in the last two weeks. We've seen this before and it was at this time last year when the Phills forgot how to hit.

I personally feel it may be time to switch victorino and rollins in the order.As far as the pitching goes if you can trade to help the pitching sign pedro martinez but only for the remainder of the season this may be the best alternative as it allows for prospects to stay and develope some of those guys are supposed to only be a season or two away anyhow if it works out well youcould make a playoff run if not all your out is money with the luxury of looking over all your prospects next spring and yes I concede pedro may be shot but nobody is going to give anything decnt without depleting an already thin farm

I agree with both postings by BAP. I, too, feel that pitching is key to the Phils' success this year. I think if Cole starts pitching like he did last year, and if Madson, JC, Durbin, and Lidge do, too, then we'll be ok. Also if we finally find a suitable replacement for Myers. - - - The reason the Mets were projected to do better this year was b/c they fixed their BP issues (getting Putz and Wagner back will help again); the reason the Braves are expected to be in the mix is b/c they have good pitching. The Phils' success last year was due to the 2nd half pitching performing really well and to the BP performing well all year long. Pitching will be key again - it always is.

MLBTradeRumors is reporting that the Phillies are interested in Pedro.

If they're willing to take on salary anyway (via trade), I see no reason why they shouldn't grab Pedro while they still can and move forward without trading the farm away.

The 2009 Phillies have the potential to be a very good team.

With our farm system as it is, the 2010-2012 Phillies have the potential to give us a cost effective dynasty. Only a fool would believe that Mayberry, Taylor, Brown, Drabek, Carasco, Bastardo, Donald, Marson, Carpenter, Worley, etc... will all pan out to be future all stars, but I think it's reasonable to hope that at least two or three of them can produce in the big leagues.

Why sell that off for a half season rental in a year that offers the weakest competition the NL East has seen in years?

As for Rollins, what a difference a few months makes. It wasn't long ago that I played my little social experiment on BL in which I suggested Jimmy be moved for a top starter (Halladay and Peavy were the ones I mentioned). Predictably, the entire board got up in arms over the mere thought of trading our former MVP. Now, in each thread, there's anywhere between 1 - 5 posters hypothesizing that the team might be well served by trading the best defensive shortstop in the game. Trading Jimmy is not the answer. The answer is moving him to #6 or #7 and allowing Victorino to lead off. Like it or not, the time has come where we must look at Jimmy's offensive production as we would Kevin Stocker. He still has a lot to offer this club, but it does not include a potent bat at the top of the lineup. Charlie is playing the team ostrich and hoping that it'll all work itself out magically if he just keeps his hands off of the lineup, but the reality is that he is in a role that he can no longer produce.

If there has been a positive note thus far, it is that Happ just may be the real deal. If this team picks up Pedro and Hamels can work through his issues, we have three pretty darn good starters to take into the playoff race and the post season. If Myers returns this season to the pen, we have a number of competent and playoff tested arms.

This team will be fine without making a trade. They've had a hell of a lot of misfortune all happen at once, but luckily, so has our primary competition. For how everyone talks about the Braves phenomenal pitching, the Marlins young bats and the Phillies ineptitude, we're still doing as well or better than everyone in the division.

I have complete faith in this team rebounding. Baseball is like life with the daily grind and the ups and downs. We get through the bad times and the good times follow. I've managed to score tix to the next four games starting tonight and I'll be there wearing my Rollins jersey and keeping the faith. Now is the time to stay positive. This team rewarded us last year and they have the ability to do so again this year.

Personally, I'm sick of the Phillies' fascination with old players. They already have the oldest roster in the major leagues. And exactly how are all these old guys doing? Well, they have one 37-year old (Ibanez) who is having a great season but is now on the DL. They have another 37-year old on the DL (Eyre). They've got one 33-year old on the DL (Condrey), and another who is averaging more than a walk per IP. They've got two pitchers over 35 who have managed to stay healthy all year, but have ERAs over 6. They've got a couple of catchers over 35, one of whom is terrible, the other with clearly diminishing skills both on the field and at the plate.

Amaro needs to break himself of the habit of building teams around guys 35 and up. No to Pedro and Glavine and Byrd and any other pitcher over the age of 35. And the Phillies would do well to rid their roster of at least half these guys next year.

bap - My point (not denny's) was that, with our lineup, those numbers aren't acceptable. The other teams you reference, while good, do they have two MVP's, a perennial MVP favorite (Utley), and another who was showing MVP potential prior to injury? Do they also have above-average players like Victorino, Werth, etc.? No, they do not. We do.

"Amaro needs to break himself of the habit of building teams around guys 35 and up. No to Pedro and Glavine and Byrd and any other pitcher over the age of 35. And the Phillies would do well to rid their roster of at least half these guys next year."

While I agree with you in principle, trading young, promising prospects for 6 months of a older pitcher isn't a great idea. I'd much rather they get use out of a 35 year old for six months than to lose two < 25 year olds for no good reason.