Sixth Annual Dugout Central Challenge – MLB Win Predictions

Before the season began, Dugout Central staff and readers were challenged to predict win totals for all thirty MLB teams. A total of five entries were received. For details about the contest rules, see the original article.

Here are the predictions, by division, in alphabetical order. The Over/Under win totals from the Las Vegas Hilton are also shown, as well as predictions from Baseball Prospectus. The 2013 and 2013 Pythagorean are the wins and Pythagorean wins, respectively, from last year.

NL East

Atl

Mia

NYM

Phi

Was

Chuck Johnson

91

65

73

72

94

Jim Mahoney

88

65

78

73

94

Cameron Nelson

95

52

76

64

89

Bob Owens

86

74

70

62

98

Kerry Whisnant

85

73

70

77

90

Average

89.0

65.8

73.4

69.6

93.0

Over/Under

87.0

70.0

74.5

74.0

90.0

Baseball Prospectus

81

69

75

77

89

2013

96

62

74

73

86

2013 Pythagorean

98

64

74

66

84

Not surprisingly, in the NL East the Nationals are favored by most everyone except for Cameron, who picked Atlanta. Nobody expects anyone else in the division to break .500.

NL Central

ChC

Cin

Mil

Pit

StL

Chuck Johnson

65

80

81

91

93

Jim Mahoney

71

91

72

94

95

Cameron Nelson

66

86

78

90

105

Bob Owens

74

90

66

97

94

Kerry Whisnant

63

83

83

82

93

Average

67.8

86.0

76.0

90.8

96.0

Over/Under

69.5

84.0

79.5

83.5

91.5

Baseball Prospectus

73

81

80

79

88

2013

66

90

74

94

97

2013 Pythagorean

71

93

76

88

101

Everyone expects St. Louis to win the NL Central, except for Bob, who favored Pittsburgh. The Pirates, and in some cases the Reds, are expected to be the main competition for the Cardinals. The Cubbies are expected to trail the field, except for Bob, who has the Brew Crew in last.

NL West

Ari

Col

LAD

SDP

SFG

Chuck Johnson

75

74

95

84

82

Jim Mahoney

82

76

90

79

80

Cameron Nelson

88

77

99

70

80

Bob Owens

81

71

97

74

76

Kerry Whisnant

77

76

94

79

84

Average

80.6

74.8

95.0

77.2

80.4

Over/Under

78.5

76.0

95.0

78.0

85.5

Baseball Prospectus

78

77

99

82

87

2013

81

74

92

76

76

2013 Pythagorean

80

76

89

72

74

Everybody thinks the Dodgers will take the NL West, though by different margins. For the most part, Colorado and San Diego are not favored to compete.

In the NL, the favored wild card teams are Pittsburgh (3 votes), Atlanta and Cincinnati (2 votes each), or St. Louis, San Francisco, and Washington (1 vote each). Overall, we all agree that Washington, Los Angeles, and St. Louis will make the playoffs; Pittsburgh and Atlanta get the next most votes.

In the NL, we were most in agreement on the Rockies, as our picks differed by only 6 wins (last year we disagreed the most on Colorado). We disagreed most on Miami, with a spread of 22 games (!).

As a group we predicted the Braves to a whopping win 7.3 games more than the Vegas line, our most optimistic choice; St. Louis was next with an average prediction 4.5 games above the Vegas line. We were most pessimistic on the Giants, with an average of 5.1 games below the Vegas line, although Philadelphia and Miami were not far behind at 4.4 and 4.2 games under the Vegas line, respectively The Vegas line wins add up to 2445, 15 more than possible, which indicates that the betting public as a whole is too optimistic.

For the AL we have:

AL East

Bal

Bos

NYY

Tam

Tor

Chuck Johnson

78

90

84

91

76

Jim Mahoney

87

92

78

92

80

Cameron Nelson

89

94

82

92

66

Bob Owens

82

88

92

97

74

Kerry Whisnant

79

90

87

87

81

Average

83.0

90.8

84.6

91.8

75.4

Over/Under

81.0

87.5

86.0

88.5

80.0

Baseball Prospectus

78

88

83

91

82

2013

85

97

85

92

74

2013 Pythagorean

85

100

79

87

77

We are split on the AL East between Boston and Tampa Bay. Bob and I also think the Yankees will contend. None of us expect Toronto to win more than they lose.

AL Central

ChW

Cle

Det

KCR

Min

Chuck Johnson

66

85

92

90

64

Jim Mahoney

65

91

94

92

70

Cameron Nelson

70

83

94

93

61

Bob Owens

64

86

95

92

63

Kerry Whisnant

74

80

90

78

67

Average

67.8

85.0

93.0

89.0

65.0

Over/Under

75.5

81.5

90.0

82.5

70.5

Baseball Prospectus

76

78

86

78

72

2013

85

92

93

86

66

2013 Pythagorean

89

90

99

87

63

We are unanimous on the Tigers to win the AL Central. Kansas City and Cleveland are favored to provide the main competition for Detroit. The Twins are picked by all but Jim to finish last; he had them ahead of the White Sox.

AL West

Ana

Hou

Oak

Sea

Tex

Chuck Johnson

86

57

82

89

85

Jim Mahoney

81

55

93

76

92

Cameron Nelson

82

50

90

77

92

Bob Owens

94

53

71

78

91

Kerry Whisnant

90

66

88

80

84

Average

86.6

56.2

84.8

80.0

88.8

Over/Under

87.5

63.0

87.5

80.5

86.5

Baseball Prospectus

88

66

85

82

82

2013

78

51

96

71

90

2013 Pythagorean

81

57

96

67

92

Only Houston did not get a choice as division winner in the AL West; the Angels got two. Only Chuck sees Seattle as a close competitor, while most of us agree that Oakland and Texas will be in the mix

We were only unanimous on two teams making the playoffs in the AL – Detroit and Tampa Bay. Boston and Kansas City got 4 votes each, while Anaheim, New York, Oakland, Seattle and Texas also got consideration.

We were most in agreement on Detroit, as our picks differed by at most 5 games. We disagreed the most on Oakland, with a range of 22 games.

As a group we predicted the Royals to win 6.5 games more than the Vegas line, our most optimistic choice. We were most pessimistic on the White Sox, 7.7 games below the Vegas line, although Houston was a close second at 6.8 games below.

So, how are our predictions doing so far? There are two different contests – one uses average win difference (AWD) and the other root mean square difference (RMSD). The difference scores are projected to the end of the season in two ways – extrapolate the current team wins to 162 games, the other to prorate our 162-game predictions to the current number of games. One method overstates the error, while the other understates it. By taking the geometric average (square root of the product) of the two methods those effects tend to cancel out. The standings below use this combined score. In practice, the two projection methods give very similar results for the ordering, even though numerically they are far off from each other and the final scores.

The projected scores for the two contests are shown in the following table, ordered by the AWD score. All games through April 10 are included. Of course we’re only a week and a half into the season, so they don’t mean much yet.

AWD

RMSD

KerryWhisnant

3.33

4.34

Chuck Johnson

3.42

4.29

Over/Under

3.38

4.42

Baseball Prospectus

3.54

4.59

Average

3.67

4.57

81 Wins

3.79

5.02

Jim Mahoney

3.95

4.86

2013 Pythagorean

3.96

5.01

Cameron Nelson

3.97

4.91

Bob Owens

4.00

5.05

2013

4.04

4.99

Also shown are the average picks for the three of us, the Over/Under line, predictions using last year’s win totals and last year’s Pythagorean wins, predictions by Baseballl Prospectus, and the simple-minded choice of 81 wins for all teams.

Updates will be provided periodically throughout the year using winning percentages, so there’s nowhere to hide, and may the best prognosticator win!

Seriously, I don’t use last year’s Pythagorean records in my calculations. I actually look at the stats of the players on this year’s teams (a mix of PECOTA, 2013, and career), plus a schedule strength correction. Because teams change so much, using last year’s teams results would not be as representative.

Tampa already has an Austin Jackson type outfielder in Desmond Jennings.
Tampa already has pitchers as good or better than Drew Smyly in the minors.
I guess Nick Franklin MIGHT become something for them.

This seems pretty weak. Maybe Tampa should have moved Price back in the Spring.

The Cubs kinda have an embarrassment of riches in the pipeline for the infield. They already have Castro, Rizzo played like an All-Star this year, Alacantra is there now, Baez just got called up, and Russell and Bryant are on the way likely before the year ends.

…Who the hell starts? My guess is Bryant moves to left and after that, a lot of tinkering.

I wouldn’t look too deeply into any of the names from the Phillies which have cleared waivers. There is no chance in hell that Hamels is going anywhere. That entire idea is a 100% media driven nonsense crazy train.

Byrd I suppose could be moved but as of now his two biggest suitors have been the M’s & Royals and he has already blocked moves to both via his limited no trade clause. The sticking point with both teams is that he wants his ’16 option picked up to waive his no trade and neither team will do that. So unless the Phillies step in to eat all or most of that option (which they won’t) there is nothing happening there. Aside from some passing interest by the Yankees, Byrd hasn’t been linked with many teams because of his option and because of his comments before the season that he wants to play in Philadelphia/could see himself retiring there.

Aside of Byrd, a longshot with Kendrick and possibly Bastardo I can’t see the Phillies moving anyone else meaningful simply because either they have nothing internal that is of a major league caliber as a replacement and/or the contracts they have on the books are toxic plus they will not eat money to make a trade so in essence they are stuck with the crew they have unless someone gets very desperate and is willing to take on, as an example, Burnett’s 12.75 million dollar player option for ’15 plus give the Phillies something tangible in return.

Rollins is 10/5 and knows that if he allows himself to get dealt somewhere else he’ll be held accountable for his half-assed play (i.e. potentially benched) so he’s content to stick it out one more year knowing that he’ll have his name written on the lineup card daily regardless of how he plays.

Utley is 10/5 and if he stays healthy he has options which could keep him in Philadelphia thru the ’18 season at $15 million per so he’s not going anywhere.

They’re not eating tens of millions to trade Howard and even if they did, as of now, they have nothing to replace him with so in essence like Rollins he’ll get his name written on the lineup card daily regardless of how he plays. Also, he goes 10/5 next year somewhere around the trade deadline so if the Phillies don’t eat money to move him they’ll be automatically locked into his $25 million dollar anchor for the ’16 season as well.

Papelbon is the least likely to move because of his mouth & contract. No one is paying the prorated $13 million for this year, next year and ’16 while giving the Phillies something in return. Maybe next year if Ken Giles proves himself more but nothing is happening now. Of course you can’t forget that he has made it clear that he’ll block a trade to even WS caliber contenders if he will not be the guaranteed closer.

Of course Papelbon is going to clear waivers. No one wants him.
Unless the Phillies eat a huge portion of the $30 million or so that he’s owed, which again they won’t do, he’s going to be their problem from now until the end of the ‘16 season which is an OK problem considering that he’s been great this year.

Hamels can be claimed by the Cubs, the Bad News Bears or the Hanshin Tigers and in the end it doesn’t matter. He’s not going anywhere because no team is going to eat his entire contract while giving the Phillies their three best prospects in return.

The Seattle Mariners will likely have their 1st winning season since 2003.

Cano is a big part of it.
But so is Kyle Seager…probably the most improved player in the game this year.
And so are Chris Young, Hisashi Iwakuma and as always…Felix Hernandez.

The Mariners still need a lot of help offensively (OF and 1B have virtually nothing to offer). And the FA market is thin at 1B.

Outfielders is not as weak, but unless they can convince Nelson Cruz to leave a winning team in Baltimore, I doubt he’s going anywhere.

Looks to me like their best option is still working out a trade for Matt Kemp.
With a (presumably) healthy Austin Jackson and an above-average guy like Kemp, Seattle’s offense would be moderately threatening.

KC is doing it with pitching.
Which, given their ballpark, sounds about right.

But I don’t know how long they can keep this up with SIX regulars OPSing under .700.

Anyway, Alex Gordon is hitting .306/.379/.467 on the road this season.
If he played in another ballpark, and considering his defense (teams don’t run on his arm), he’d be like…the 9th or 10 overall outfielder in the game.

Hm… Interesting approach. I kinda dislike how they’re holding onto the fact that they continue to use it just because it “might” work. The seeming lack of peer review seems like they hired some bad scientists.

You have no idea how much I want to make some argument against Trout just to see if there’s any other competition, but there really isn’t. Abreu may be as good at the plate, but figuring defense and base running, Trout could sweep.

Kershaw wins everything, awards included, and if Kershaw could find a way to pitch on no rest for a whole series, the Dodgers would have no competition for the World Series. And you people thought I was crazy for saying he was going to be better than Jon Lester back in 2009.

I like Gardenhire and think he’s a good manager. He was given the Bad News Bears to work with, but I would’ve fired him too just so the state of Minnesota wouldn’t be calling for my head. He’ll probably get kicked upstairs.

I wanted the Dodgers to go to the Series so the Royals could rub it in Greinke’s face in the biggest way possible.

Also Jim, I have faith in the Royals. The O’s rely on the long ball and decent pitching while only having adequate defense outside of JJ Hardy. KC is a team built for series like this, small ball, defense, and stellar pitching. At this point, I think it’s our year.

If Cruz and Pearce and Jones can really get hot, we might be screwed. But we kept Oakland relatively in check and absolutely shut down the Angels. While I think we could lose, it’s not a possibility I’m scared of.

Cameron, I can assure you that this is not a dream and you will not wake up to find that game one of the ALCS is tomorrow evening. You will wake up as the 2014 AL Champions who will have a few days to wait for their WS opponents. Enjoy!

I really do not care about the length of a game. So you go to a game, have a couple of beers and are going back to work? Bullshit. And if you cannot hack 5 hours of sleep for one night you have might have health issues.

Personally, I think spending 4 hours at Fenway/insert any ballpark you want/ would be awesome.

I’d have to look into what time is being cut to get a better judge of things. If it’s just the actual batting being sped up, I suppose that’s okay. Personally my biggest peeve is that about an hour per game is lost due to ads on TV in between pitching and inning changes, even if you’tr at the park.

The catcher or other fielder can only go to the mound once per inning.

A manager or coach can only go to the mound twice in an inning, once per game.

When the pitcher has the ball and his foot is on the rubber the batter must be in the batter’s box ready to hit. If not the pitcher is free to throw the ball. Tired or watching batter rituals between pitchers.

Enforce the 12 second rule (8.04) for pitchers. Currently the rule applies only when the bases are empty, but I’d like to see some time limit when runners are on.

Maddon jumping ship, definitive evidence that the Rays’ are a sinking ship? Having a minor league system that regularly produces quality major leaguers is much easier when you regularly have top 10 positions in the draft than when you’re drafting 20-30.

Hm… Looking at the free agent list and nothing too sexy for the Royals. Only definite upgrade I see is if we can convince Hanley to play second or sign Rios. Neither of which may be too implausible actually, we look like a winner now.

And I think we can compensate for Shields without signing anyone new if we hand the ace’s reigns over to Ventura. Though some mid-range starters like Masterson or Liriano would be nice.

Like I said to you at the trade deadline, the idea of Hamels going somewhere is complete media driven bull shit. What team is seriously going to take on the $110 million owed to him plus give up their three best major league ready prospects? The only teams that seem to make sense are the Cubs and Red Sox. The Red Sox more so than the Cubs do not have the pieces needed for the Phillies to accept a trade, assuming of course that you can get Hamels to not block the deal, as any of the guys I have seen as being on the table are mostly B-List prospects which won’t get the job done or are guys where the Phillies already have a piece in place which isn’t going anywhere like at 3B with Asche/Franco or 1B with Howard and eventually Franco.

The #1 deal breaker there aside of the fact that Hamels is not motivated to leave Philadelphia nor are the Phillies motivated to move him is that they are interested first and foremost in Mookie Betts who the RS have all but said is untouchable. If the Sox make him available plus someone like Matt Barnes then maybe you’ve got something but anything I’ve seen about the Red Sox and Hamels involves let’s say Barnes and then either B or C list talent or guys in the low minors who are at best years away which again won’t get the job done.

As of now I’m not saying that it’s impossible but I would be very surprised to see Hamels not pitching for the Phillies come opening day versus the RS not for the RS.

The Phillies are highly enamoured with Mookie Betts who the Red Sox have all but told everyone is not in play.

Amaro will probably set the bar so high to trade for Hamels that he’ll stay in Philly. The $110M owed Hamels, assuming he forces his option to be picked up, wouldn’t bother several clubs, but the money and raping the farm system, no. If the Philly’s would take a deal for 2 of Barnes, Cecchini, Marrero and Ranaudo plus 2-3 prospects deeper in the minors then maybe. Think of this as Johan Santana redux, but the long term deal is in place.

And Jim that’s why no deal is likely going to ever happen and that’s why all of these “rumors” are so stupid.

No team is going to be able to satisfy what Hamels will want to drop his no trade in that his option will have to get picked up along with satisfying the Phillies wishes that they won’t be responsible for a penny of his contract plus three top flight major league ready players in return.

Cecchini does nothing for the Phillies as he is an offensive lightweight and they already have someone comparable or better in Asche or the golden child in Franco.
Ranaudo also doesn’t do a lot for them in that he’s got no consistent third pitch along with less than stellar control. At the major league level he’ll get killed as a starting pitcher which long term makes him maybe a decent pen piece.

Neither of those guys are worth the Phillies time and/or are an upgrade over what they already have on the roster just like lower minor league players mean nothing to them.

The Phillies want in particular OF help now to backfill Byrd and to push the dump button on that turd Brown. Any team not willing to offer that is just kidding themselves that they have any chance at Hamels.

Yes they are. And they are not done. With Pablo manning third, you know Middlebrooks will be dealt. The question is will he be the third piece to a big deal, or someone they peddle for a back-up catcher or a serviceable relief pitcher.

And they still have a surplus of outfielders

1. Betts
2. Hanley
3. Castillo
4. Victorino
5. Bradley Jr.
6. Holt and Craig, who both can also play in the infield.

Unless they want to open a competition between Castillo and Betts for center or see if Castillo can push Victorino out of right, their best bet might be trading Betts because he is stone cold cockblocked in the infield.

The RS will move on from Victorino, he wants to start and won’t be happy as a 4th OF. Very doubtful that the Sox would trade Betts, except as part of a package that brought back a Stanton/Trout/Strasburg type of talent. The Sox see Betts as a lead off hitter, something they sorely lacked, even when Ellsbury was here.

I like what the Sox have done this fall, filling out their rotation with salaries that equal a year of Lester. Thoughm I agree with Bob, that they’re not through and need one more arm that ideally is a cut above what they’ve got. Doubt it will be Cole Hamels, as the Phils are asking too much. Amaro doesn’t seem to realize that Hamels is at peak value and after the trading deadline he will decline in value due to his age.

I think they’d be smart to hold on to Bradley and Craig as they’re quality backup OF in there and Holt, Nava, and if Victorino is still there, let them fight it out for playing time if (IF) Boston wants a sixth outfielder.

“and after the trading deadline he will decline in value due to his age.”

That’s ludicrous Jim. Whatever value Hamels has will not decrease between now and July as long as he continues to pitch the same way. The guy is only turning 31.

“Amaro doesn’t seem to realize that Hamels is at peak value”

Amaro is not the one driving the ship in Philly. He’s a lot like Cashman in NY who is a puppet or a figurehead who’s job it is to take the heat while doing the bidding of the guy(s) who sign his check.

Amaro was handicapped for years by David Montgomery and his veteran fetish and now that’s he is on a medical LOA with the team’s ownership situation currently in flux it’s all about what Pat Gillick wants to do as he is the one behind the scenes calling the shots for now.

As for the RS rotation, I don’t know Jim it could be good but at the same time Cherington may have put together a bulldozer of an offense with a 3rd rate SP staff. What they have now with Porcello as their #1 and a group of #4’s and #5’s with Miley-Buchholz-Masterson isn’t scaring anybody. That’s not a staff that wins in October or even gets to October unless you’re putting up scores every night that would make The Pats blush.

Yes, the south-siders have been buying like my wife at a shoe sale. But considering how god awful they’ve been and maybe, just maybe, the Cubs can be decent, the WS felt like they needed to do something.

And the Yanks have been oddly quiet. Miller is a nice pick up, but they lost Robertson, so it is about a wash. Gregorius will make the pitching staff happy, but he’s a piece part not a difference maker. In fact they have been AC/DC the last few years. Stayed away from expensive FA, then panicked last fall after a season of empty seats and declining TV viewership had them shelling out overpays to Ellsbury and McMann. Many expected them to be in on Lester…

Actually, I think the Yankees win the Miller/Robertson swap as they pick up a draft pick in the process, and really did they need/crave a 3-headed bullpen monster? Someone’s ego could get bruised if they wind up with the bronze.

Turner looks like he could be something special, but I like the immediate takeaway for San Diego as they get a good middle-order bat (if he’s healthy) and clear room for Hedges by shipping away Grandal and Rivera. Not a team that will win the NL West but a team on the upswing.

If he’s not complaining, or even if he is they give him aspirin. The hips probably don’t bother him enough now to effect his play, but in a couple of years?? But you do need to feel for someone at that age with those problems.

You mean David Ross. Didn’t see anything in Lester’s deal about him getting a personal caddy. On the other hand, Lester is cringing about Ryan Lavarnway getting minor league deal from the Cubbies. Hope he enjoys Des Moines

Mikhail Prokorov is trying to sell the Nets, reportedly for more than the Clippers went for.

So… Let me get this straight.

-Buy histroically shitty team for 220 million dollars
-Fill it with injury-prone, bad character players, mediocre veterans, and pay them record payroll
-Build a brand-new arena in the middle of fucking Brooklyn
-Keep tanking said shitty team into the ground
-Sell team for 2 billion dollars plus and laugh to the bank as the Nets crash and burn
-All in the span of FIVE YEARS!

Bob, I’ve lived a lot longer than you and my experience is that people and organizations seek bend, avoid and break rules to their advantage. What I’m surprised about is that if the air pressure of the ball can make a significant performance difference, why aren’t game balls under the control of league officials and not team employees during the game.

@ 285. Jim , changes will clearly be made from here on in. And if you are going to bend or break the rules and regulations, do not get caught. The Patriots did. Just like people at Enron, Tyco Global Crossing etc. And they were all punished.

Go Seahawks.

@ 286 While it might not completely explain the trouncing, it clearly confirms the Patriots reputation as cheaters at the higher levels of their organization, not a bunch of dumbass players doing steroids.

Bob – I expect the RS would be interested him and would probably go as high as 4/80 for him. He’d be a better value than Hamels as it would be just money.
The rap I hear on Shields, and why he’s not a fit for the RS, is that he has not pitched well in Fenway and that he is a fly ball pitcher. Well the RS teams that he has pitched against were pretty good at home and I looked at his fly ball rate and he’s around 33% which last year would have had him around 40th among starters.

Shields to the Padres. I wonder what the inside dish is on Joba? I know he’s disliked here at DC, but he wasn’t awful last year, though his 2nd half was poor. The Tigers, who have a shaky bullpen, seem to have no interest, nor does anyone else.

Yeah, and the endless lineup predictions and final roster prediction. And how the RS won’t make the playoffs without an ACE, while they conflate Lester’s stellar post season with the regular season. When in truth during the 2013 regular season Lester was borderline average. Great future trivia question, among the 2013 Boston starters, who led the rotation in WAR? Answer Buchholz at 4.3, even with missing 40% of the season. Then Lester at 3.0 and Lackey at 2.8.

On paper the 2015 rotation is deeper than 2013, but for the team to go deep in the post season someone will need to step up and don the Ace mantle.

Having a bit of a nostalgia moment. Kevin Garnett going back to Minnesota. When I used to watch basketball as a kid he was one of the hot young rookies in the league and I thought he was cool. Nice to see him in a Wolves uniform again.

I was in Minneapolis when Garnett arrived and for his and the teams most successful years there. When I saw that the trembling timber chihuahuas were trying to bring him back to finish his career there, I smiled.

Sort of like Willy Mays going back to NY to finish his career. Though KG has more left than the Say Hey Kid did.

Nice, nice… I love that batter’s box rule. Hope that cuts down on a lot of unnecessary batter timeouts. Two things I’d like to see are a pitch clock they can agree on (I’ve heard a lot of people watching the AFL were a fan of the clock, hopefully Chuck can verify), and hopefully something regarding pickoffs. I wouldn’t LIMIT pickoffs necessarily but maybe have pickoffs start counting as balls in the count after the first in an at-bat.

I love David Ortiz as a player and as a personality, but frankly I’m tired of watching him at the plate, tucking the bat under his arm, tugging on his gloves and clapping his hands on most pitches. Stand in there and hit.

Not to mention (thanks to Chuck for pointing this out on Twitter to me) that keeping one foot in the batter’s box at all times is ALREADY A RULE. It was just a rule that was practically never enforced. So technically he could’ve had this conversation when we were still calling him David Arias, Minnesota Twin.

@344 and as it as been pointed out elsewhere, he can still go through his routine except for the stroll up the baseline. Though if the pitcher is ready, they don’t need to wait for the routine to be completed before coming home.

Seriously, of the 3 -4 remaining posters, (Lefty sometimes chimes in) what is the fairest outcome for Josh Hamilton. A multiple offender, who turned himself in. Is coke treated differently than steroids? Should it be? ARod just had a year suspension.

To my knowledge, no Angel lovers or haters here. So what is fair, to both the other teams who have lost stars, to Hamilton who came forward saying he needs help and to the league, who has a responsibility to honor its policies?

I’m not sure what the benefit is in punishing him. Addicts slip and the fact Hamilton came forward shouldn’t be dismissed. Though to be consistent with what has happened to other first time offenders (which he technically is)who have run out of warnings, give him the 15-25 games that the JDA calls for.

Hamilton is a sad case, but it shows how difficult it is for addicts to stay straight. The general assumption is that a relapse occurs when the addict is out partying, but in truth the relapse is more likely to occur due to the inability to cope with stress from life.

There’s a difference in relapse severity. It could’ve just been one line and an isolated incident or it could’ve started a persistent cocaine habit cropping back up. As he has the wherewithal to admit what happened, it sounds like it was an isolated incident and he does want help.

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