Global overview December 2018

East Africa: Limited and irregular
rainfall has caused decreased crop and rangeland productivity for the short
rainy season in most of Somalia, eastern of Kenya, south-east Ethiopia and
north-west Tanzania. At the end of December and close to harvest time, many of
these areas have received only half of the average seasonal rainfall with clear
negative repercussions on yields. In South Sudan, rainfall has been very
irregular in time and space since September, reducing pastoral vegetation
productivity and therefore adding pressure to one of the currently most severe
food security crises in the continent. Uni-seasonal production areas in Sudan
and Ethiopia have generally experienced better agro-climatic conditions during
the main season.

Southern Africa: Most of the region has experienced below-average
rainfall since the beginning of the season in October, leading to poor crop and
rangeland conditions in: Botswana, southern Angola, northern Namibia, Lesotho,
southern Zimbabwe and southern Zambia and South Africa. The unfavorable
agro-climatic conditions (rainfall deficits, high temperatures) are likely to
have caused planting delays, decreased planted areas and damage to initial crop
growth stages. In most cases, and considering the early stage of the season,
recovery is still possible in case of rainfall improvement in the next weeks
and continuous monitoring is crucial. Above average rainfall has been observed
since the end of November in north-eastern Zimbabwe, Malawi, north and central
Mozambique and north Zambia.

North Africa: After a good start of
the winter crop season in October/November, December was characterized by above
average temperatures and decreased rainfall in the coastal areas of Algeria,
northern Morocco and parts of Tunisia. There is no visible negative impact on vegetation yet, but rainfall improvement in January and
February will be relevant for good crop development.

West and Central Africa: The main season
in the Sahel was generally positive thanks to abundant rainfall. In Nigeria,
production outlooks for rain-fed agriculture are generally above average, whereas
limitations to agricultural production in 2018 were due mainly to major flooding of
riverine areas in September, internal displacement and to the ongoing conflict
in the North East.

Middle-East: During
November-December 2018 and in contrast with the 2017-2018 season, Syria,
Iraq and western Iran, received above average rainfall (sometimes causing floods
as in Ninewa, Iraq), which is beneficial to winter cereals and pastures.

In Yemen, which imports over 90% of its cereals
needs, the food security situation is mainly driven by conflict, although
the dry spell of this autumn in Al Hudaydah is likely to have impacted
negatively millet crop (usually harvested in December) in the center of the
governorate.

Central and
South Asia: In central Asia, winter cereals are dormant and
conditions appear to be favorable. In south Asia, the last three months were
drier than average in south Pakistan, in particular in Balochistan, where
winter cereal sowings have been reduced with respect to the previous season, as
revealed by Sentinel 2 imagery (e.g. west of the city of Usta
Muhammad). December was also particularly dry in north & west
Afghanistan with 25 to 50% of the average rainfall received, however it is too
early to assess the impact of this dry spell on winter cereals or pastures.

South-East Asia: In south-east Asia, harvest of
main season rice is ongoing under favorable conditions in the whole region,
whereas in Indonesia the main season rice is in the growing period. In the northern Philippines (Central Luzon and
Calbarzon) rainfed maize and rice received only 50% of the usual 600 -700 mm of
rainfall between the last dekad of September and the 2nd dekad of
December.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: Harvesting of
the Postrera season is ongoing in with close to average
prospects for almost all the countries. After a delayed onset of the season and
some early dryness, crop conditions have generally recovered in almost all of
the countries thanks to beneficial rains in recent weeks. Nonetheless, some
localized crop damages have been observed in subsistence farming areas, where
the Primera season dryness affected Postrera planting
and in the Gulf of Fonseca where heavy rains in early October led to crop damage.
Planting operations of the Apante season have started in
Nicaragua and Honduras.

Despite rainfall improvements in Haiti, seasonal
dryness could strike secondary season production, especially in southern and
northwestern areas of the country.

More information for each hotspot country can be found
by clicking on the country in the map.

The January
assessment will be released at the end of January 2019

Special Focus

December 2018 - Spring/summer drought in Afghanistan

An area extending from the west (Hirat, Badghis, Faryab provinces) of Afghanistan to the countries’ northern border (Jawzjan, Ballkh, Sar-e-Pul, Baghlan), experienced a serious drought that started in winter-spring and protracted till summer. At country level, wheat production of irrigated and rain-fed fields is expected to drop to 3.5 million tons in 2018, down by 19 and 27% with respect to 2017 (4.3 million tons) and the 5-year average respectively (FAO "Crop prospects and food situation" of December 2018).

Latest News

2018-11-29

Download of ASAP indicators statistics

ASAP calculates every 10 days average values of all key indicators for each ASAP unit, considering only crop/rangeland pixels with active vegetation. Now these data can be downloaded with a new tool available in the download section.

2018-10-30

ASAP High Resolution Viewer updated

The ASAP High resolution Viewer has been completely redesigned and new tools added. In addition to the improved layout, it is now possible to select the comparison year, plot the NDVI time series for Modis, Sentinel 2 and Landsat 8 in a user-defined point, visualize the image chips for Sentinel 2 in a selected period, display default crop and rangeland layers, and switch to different ASAP units.

Past Global Overview

November 2018

East Africa: Below average rainfall is
putting at risk crop and rangeland productivity for the short rainy season in
many areas of Somalia, Kenya and south-east Ethiopia. In late November many of
these areas have received only 30-50% of the average seasonal rainfall, making
plant recovery before the end of the season unlikely. Uni-seasonal production
areas in Sudan and Ethiopia have generally experienced better agro-climatic
conditions during the main season, but in Sudan production prospects are below
average due to high input prices and early season flood damage.

Southern Africa: Most agricultural regions in the area have been experiencing below
average rainfall throughout November, when they are in their early vegetative
development stages. In the main cereal producing regions of South Africa and
Angola and in pastoral areas in Northern Namibia, rainfall deficits coupled
with above average temperatures are increasing the risk of crop and pastures
damage. Very little rainfall has fallen in the last month in Zambia and
Zimbabwe leading to dry crop and rangeland conditions. Average to above average
rainfall in the next weeks will be crucial to ensure normal vegetation
development.

West and Central
Africa: Harvests across
the Sahel are generally positive due to abundant rainfall during the main season.
In south-western Mauritania and localized areas in Senegal pastures conditions
are below average, despite improvements in September and October. In Nigeria,
production outlooks for rain-fed agriculture are generally above average, while
limitations to agricultural
production in 2018 are due to major flooding of riverine areas in September and
to the ongoing conflict in the North East.

North Africa: According
to the latest MARS bulletin “In Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia
the sowing of winter wheat started in good conditions and within the normal
window (early October), which for Morocco is significantly earlier than last
years campaign. Crops are well established and favourable soil moisture
conditions boosted emergence of winter crops which are currently 10 days
advanced compared to an average season”. In Egypt after a minor delay in
winter season onset, crop conditions are now close to average in all
regions and crop conditions are above average in the western part of the Nile
delta.

Middle-East: In the whole region (Syria, Iraq and Iran), the winter cereals
season started under favourable conditions with above average rainfall from the
second dekad of October.
In Yemen, the food security crisis mainly due to conflict is compounded by the
dry conditions of the last four months over the coastal areas (from Hajjah to
Al Hudaydah, Taizz, Lahj and Abyan) where about one third to half of the
average rainfall was received. This drought has been affecting
sorghum at the end of its cycle and most likely millet at the start of its
growth, as well as pastures.

Central and
South Asia: In Central Asia,
after the dry conditions that affected mainly Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan this
summer, favourable rainfall conditions prevail since October for the start of
winter cereals.
In South Asia, rainfall conditions are favourable for the start of winter
cereals in Afghanistan, in particular in the western and northern regions
affected by the 2018 drought. In Pakistan, sowings of Rabi crops (winter wheat and barley) are ongoing; it is however too
early to assess the effect of possible irrigation water shortage on crop growth
in the southern provinces.

South-East Asia: In South-East Asia
(with the exception of Indonesia where main season rice is starting in Java and
Sumatra), the harvest of main season rice is ongoing with favourable prospects,
except in the areas stricken by typhoons and floods such as southern Laos or
northern Philippines.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: The Postrera season continues under
mixed conditions due to a delayed onset of the season followed by abundant
rains at the beginning of October. While conditions have improved in several
areas where average and above-average rainfall was registered, seasonal
dryness continues to affect parts of Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua. A
similar situation is observed in Haiti where despite positive October rainfall,
the overall situation has slightly deteriorated due to below average rainfall
in November.

More information for each hotspot country can be found
by clicking on the country in the map.

The December
assessment will be released in early January 2019

Hotspot countries:

Haiti

Kenya

Nigeria

Somalia

South Sudan

Sudan

Yemen

October 2018

East Africa: At the harvesting stage
seasonal outputs in the northern part of the region are generally positive,
with the exception of localized areas affected by early season floods (e.g.
North East and Central Sudan) or dryness (limited areas in East Oromia, Afar
and SNNPR in Ethiopia). In the bi-seasonal areas of Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda,
Rwanda and Burundi, the second season has started with close to average
rainfall and some initial delay in Southern Somalia, Uganda and parts of Rwanda
and Burundi. Pastoral areas in north-east Somalia and in south-east Ethiopia
have experienced a harsh dry season and low deyr
rainfall so far. The Deyr season rainfall forecast according
to the CHC (Climate Hazard Centre) is slightly below average, despite moderate
El Niño conditions, which normally favor abundant rainfall in the region.

Southern Africa: Planting and early vegetative stages of summer crops
are ongoing across the region under close to average weather conditions. A
slight water deficit is concentrated in central and south-east Angola and in
the north-western parts of Zambia. Above average rainfall in the central and
eastern parts of South Africa provides beneficial conditions for the planting
of the main crop season, while the winter wheat crop outlook according to
official estimates is positive.

West and Central
Africa: Harvest
prospects in the Sahel are generally positive due to abundant rainfall during
the season. Only in parts of Senegal and in south-western Mauritania, crop and
pastures conditions are below average, despite improvements in September and
October. In Nigeria, production outlooks for rain-fed agriculture are generally
above average, however the August/September floods have cause significant
damage to riverine crop areas across the country and have contributed to an
exceptional Cholera outbreak. Renewed conflict in north eastern Nigeria has
increased population displacement in October. In the lake Chad basin
agro-climatic conditions were generally good, but insecurity remains a
limitation for agricultural production.

North Africa: in the ongoing winter
crops sowing period the Maghreb has experienced a timely rainfall onset and
above average rainfall amounts so far. A heatwave in Morocco in September,
reported by the MARS bulletin, has no visible impact on winter season planting
time or early crop conditions. A slight winter season planting delay is visible
in parts of Egypt.

Middle-East: In Syria, Iraq and Iran,
sowing of winter cereals started under favourable conditions with the timely
onset of average to above average rainfall in the last dekad of October. It is
however too early to assess the start of the cereals season as the bulk of sowings
will take place in November.

In Iraq, harvest
of irrigated summer crops is ongoing in the south of the country, with a strong
reduction of the production in the rice belt area (Najaf and Qadissiya) as a
result of the government ban on water-intensive summer crops (rice, corn):
according to the New York Post, less than 3% of the 2017 rice area was sown in
2018 to save on water.

In western Yemen
(Al Hudaydah, Hajjah), sorghum and millet biomass remains below average as
a result of an ongoing drought (less than on third of the average rainfall was
received over the last 3 months). This drought, which comes on top of the
ongoing conflict and blockade of the Al Hudaydah harbour, will worsen the
ongoing severe food security crisis of the country.

Central and
South Asia: In Central Asia,
specifically in Uzbekistan (Navoiy, Kashkadarya and Bukhara) and Turkmenistan
(Mary and Ahal), the production of summer crops (including cotton) and pastures
is below average and below the 2017 production as a result of reduced
irrigation and summer drought for eastern Uzbekistan (Namagan, Fergana and
Andijan).

In South Asia,
southern Pakistan (Balochistan and Sindh) expects a below average production of
summer crops as a result of reduced irrigation water (which led to a reduction
in the sown area as well as crop biomass with respect to 2017 and average). In
Afghanistan, conditions are favourable for the start of the winter cereals
season, in particular in the north and west of the country (hit by drought in
2017/2018), thanks to timely and average to above average rainfall.

South-East Asia: conditions are
favourable for the main season rice, with the harvest just starting. The entity
of crop losses due to typhoons and floods in July and August in Laos, July and
September in the Philippines, are however difficult to assess with the ASAP
indicators.

Central America and Caribbean Islands: The primera season is complete in
Central America and the final production was below average due to dry
conditions and high temperatures since mid-June in the dry corridor, affecting mainly subsistence farmers in eastern El
Salvador, western Nicaragua and southern Honduras. Despite a delayed onset of
the segunda season rains, crop
conditions have generally recovered thanks to good rainfall in the last weeks
and are close to normal. Exceptional rainfall was received in early October,
leading to floods in several areas of El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua.

Conditions have also improved for the summer season in
Haiti due to good rains over the last weeks. On the contrary, dry
conditions persist in Cuba, affecting crops mainly in the central and eastern parts
of the island.

More information for each hotspot country can be found
by clicking on the country in the map.

The November
assessment will be released at the end of November 2018

Hotspot countries:

Iraq

Nigeria

Pakistan

Senegal

South Sudan

Sudan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Yemen

September 2018

East Africa: Abundant rainfall in August
and September has generally favoured good crop and livestock production in the
northern part of the region. In Sudan the exceptional rainfall has caused
extensive flooding and damaged croplands. Also the planted area is below
average due a surge in agricultural input prices. In Ethiopia, Meher crops that
will be harvested later in the year, are generally performing well, except
localized areas with dry conditions in the Rift Valley area. Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania,
Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi have generally also benefitted from above average seasonal
rainfall, despite a dry spell affecting crop and pasture conditions in Uganda’s
Karamoja region and early season floods in eastern Kenya and in Southern
Somalia. The main country of concern remains South Sudan with strong
limitations to crop and pastures productivity due to the ongoing conflict,
delayed seasonal onset in the northern part and rainfall deficits in the South.

Southern Africa: Land
preparation activities are occurring at this period across the region and
rainfall monitoring in the next weeks will be important, as there is an
increased likelihood of an El Niño event during the 2018-2019 rainy season (El
Niño/Southern oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion). The winter wheat
production forecast for South Africa is positive, thanks to good rainfall
received in August and September.

West and Central
Africa: The main rainy
season in the Sahel has brought abundant rain to most agricultural and pastoral
areas allowing for above average vegetation conditions. Crop and rangeland
conditions have slightly improved also in western Senegal and south western
Maritania, where cumulated rainfall remains significantly below average though
and dry conditions prevail for the second season in a row. Abundant rainfall
since June over the river basins of the Niger and Benue rivers has caused
disastrous floods in Nigeria, causing casualties and damage to housing, roads
and also to crop lands (see also September special alert). The conflict in
north eastern Nigeria, combined with resources related clashes among
pastoralists, continues to cause low food production and high risk of food
insecurity.

North Africa: The rainfed areas of the
region are out of season after a generally good winter wheat production. Summer
crops in Egypt are also showing clearly below average biomass most likely due
to high temperatures experienced in the region since the beginning of this
year.

Middle-East: In the eastern half of Iran and along
the Euphrates river in eastern Syria (Dayr Az Zor) and southern Iraq
(Najaf and Qadissiya), the production of irrigated summer crops is below
average as a result of lack of irrigation water, government ban on certain
summer crops and conflict (case of Syria although some improvement is noted in
Raqqa and the north west of Dayr az Zor with respect to 2017). In western
Yemen (Al Hudaydah, Hajjah, Taizz), sorghum, wheat and millet productions
are jeopardized as a result of an ongoing drought compounded by conflict; for
instance, Al Hudaydah, the main province for crop production, received only 24%
of its average 75 mm of rain over the last month, which corresponds to the peak
of the second rainy season.

Central and
South Asia: the south east of Turkmenistan
(Mary and Ahal), south Uzbekistan (Navoyi and Kashkadarya) and the
northwest of Afghanistan, the production of summer crops (including cotton) is
expected to be reduced with respect to average and to 2017 as a result of
irrigation deficit. In Afghanistan, the drought of this spring has caused more
than 250,000 people to leave their villages in quest for food. According to a
national report, in some regions of the northwest, cereal production is down by
up to 70% with respect to 2017. Southern Pakistan (Sindh and Balochistan) is
also suffering from an ongoing drought as well as reduced irrigation of summer
(kharif) crops, as shown by the reduction in irrigated crops areas.

Southeast Asia: after the heavy
rains of July and August in Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, main
season rice is growing under favourable conditions, except in northern
Philippines where Luzon island has been again stricken by a very strong typhoon
(Mangkhuk) which damaged maize and rice crops and dwellings.

In North Korea, crop biomass is above average in most regions including the
rice bowl area. The impact of the dry spell combined with high temperatures
(2-3 C above average) during the pollination of cereals in the period 20 July-
20 August in south and north Hwanghae and in Pyongyang-Si needs to be assessed
by field survey.

Central America:
In Central America, the primera season harvest is nearing completion and production is
reduced due to the prolonged dry spells and high temperatures since mid-June in
the “Dry corridor”. The main areas of concern, affected subsistence
farmers in eastern El Salvador, western Nicaragua and southern Honduras. Thanks
to recent rainfall, overall conditions slightly improved, although concern
remains and postrera
planting in these areas was delayed. In Haiti, recent rains somewhat
alleviated the situation in the Transversal region during the summer season.
However, poor conditions persist and crop sowing was delayed,
particularly in the southern and western areas.

More information for each hotspot country can be found
by clicking on the country in the map.

The October
assessment will be released at the end of October 2018

Hotspot countries:

Afghanistan

El Salvador

Haiti

Iran

Nigeria

Pakistan

Senegal

South Sudan

Sudan

Uganda

Yemen

August 2018

East Africa: The June-September season is
generally progressing well in the northern part of the region, with above
average rainfall in most countries and main risks linked to flooding. Floods
have occurred on a relatively large scale in Sudan, both in the main producing
regions in the East as well as in Nothern Darfur and parts of Kordofan, while
in general the abundant rainfall has mainly positive effects on crops and
rangelands productivity in the country. In Somalia final crop production is expected
to be above average thanks to off good performance in rainfed areas and off
season production in flooded riverine areas. In Ethiopia the overall situation
is also good despite some areas with below average rainfall concentrated in
eastern Oromia and southern SNNPR. Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi
have generally also benefitted from above average seasonal rainfall, despite a dry
spell affecting crop and pasture conditions in Uganda’s Karamoja region. The
main country of concern remains South Sudan with strong limitations to crop and
pastures productivity due to the ongoing conflict, delayed seasonal onset in
the northern part and rainfall deficits in the South.

Southern Africa: The main
agricultural season has ended in the Southern Africa region and cereal
crop production was reduced in most of the countries of the region, due to the
prolonged dry spells in early 2018. The winter wheat planting has been
completed in South Africa and planting regions in Zimbabwe and Zambia, and
conditions are good at this stage.

West Africa: The main rainy season in the
Sahel has brought abundant rain to most agricultural and pastoral areas
allowing for above average vegetation conditions. The main exception in the
region is the area including Western Senegal, Western Mauretania and the Gambia,
where seasonal rains have stopped earlier than normal. Rainfall has improved
even in areas affected by early season drought such as in Guinea, the northern
part of Sierra Leone and in central Nigeria. Security continues to be a
limitation for agricultural activities in large parts of Mali, Chad, Northern Cameroun
and north east Nigeria. In the latter, seasonal pastoral migration from southern
and central areas to the north is particularly constrained by security
concerns.

North Africa: The rainfed areas of the
region are out of season and the 2018 harvest in June was above average, with
exceptionally good yields in Morocco (15% above 5 years average for wheat and
23% for barley according to the June MARS bulletin). Only in Tunisia, prolonged
drought conditions in the central part of the country caused a slightly below 5
years average production.

Middle-East: in Syria, Iraq and Iran, biomass levels of
irrigated summer crops are below average as a result of either conflict (case
of Syria although some improvement is noted in Raqqa and north west, but not
south east of Dayr az Zor with respect to 2017) or lack of irrigation water.
Actually both Iraq and the eastern half of Iran have banned certain summer
crops to save water; the effect of such a ban is visible in Najaf in Iraq,
where rice areas are dramatically reduced with respect to 2017. In Yemen (Al
Hudaydah), cereals growth appears to be delayed with respect to average and to
2017, as a result of conflict, combined with a dry spell in May-July.

Central and
South Asia: the south east
of Turkmenistan (Mary and Ahal), south Uzbekistan
(Kashkadarya and Surkhandarya) and the north west of Afghanistan
show below average level of biomass for summer crops (including cotton) as a
result of reduced irrigation (in Uzbekistan, some water reservoirs clearly show
lower water levels than in 2017). In the north west of Afghanistan (particularly in Jawzjan and Faryab),
summer crops show below average and below 2017 biomass as a result of reduced
irrigation.

Southeast Asia: In SE Asia, namely
southern Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, southern Laos and northern Vietnam, the
planting of main season rice appears to be delayed as a result of the heavy
rainfall received in July and August over the region. This rainfall brought by
tropical storms caused floodings in many regions (Myanmar, Thailand, Laos,
Philippines), damage to recently planted rice and/or delay in rice planting. In
DPRK although crop biomass is close or above average according to satellite
imagery, a one month dry spell combined with temperatures above average by 2-3
degrees Celsius affected two important provinces of the rice bowl area
(Hwanghae namdo and Pyongyang-Si) over mid July-mid August and may
have damaged rice and maize crops at flowering stage. A field survey would be
needed for precise damage assessment.

Central America: Despite a good
start of the 2018 main season, crop losses have been registered in
parts of Central America due to dry spells since mid-June that affected
vegetation. The area most affected encompasses subsistence
farmers in the “Dry corridor” of Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras,
where the Governments reported losses of 282,000 ha of maize and beans. In
Haiti, prospects for the spring season are below average due to dryness caused
by poor and irregular rainfall, mainly in the southern and eastern regions. At
the same time, in Cuba, the situation has also
deteriorated in the last month due to below
average rainfall.

More information for each hotspot country can be found
by clicking on the country in the map.

The September
assessment will be released at the end of September 2018

Hotspot countries:

Afghanistan

El Salvador

Gambia

Haiti

Iran

Iraq

Laos

Mauritania

Myanmar

Nigeria

North Korea

Senegal

South Sudan

Sudan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Yemen

July 2018

East Africa: Despite flood damage due to
exceptional rainfall in April/May in Kenya and Somalia, crop conditions close
to harvest time for areas with an April/June growing season, are generally
positive. In Somalia low crop production is expected in riverine areas hit by
floods, but will be partially compensated by off-season production (to be
harvested in August/September). The main season is progressing well in Ethiopia
with some areas concerned by dry conditions (Afar and north Somali) and heavy
rainfall in July in parts of the highlands. Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and
Burundi have generally also benefitted from above average seasonal rainfall.
The main country of concern remains South Sudan with strong limitations to crop
and pastures productivity due to the ongoing conflict and delayed seasonal
onset in the northern part.

Southern Africa: In the
Southern Africa region harvest of the main agricultural season has been
completed and cereal crop production is reduced in most of the countries of the
region, due to the prolonged dry spells early in the season. Crops and rangelands have been severely
damaged in southwest Madagascar. The southern provinces of Mozambique, central
and southern Malawi and southern Zambia have also been negatively affected,
resulting in low yields in these areas. Good cereal production levels have been
achieved in South Africa, northern Mozambique and northern Malawi. Winter wheat
has been planted in the Cape area of South Africa with favorable weather
conditions so far, especially in the western part of Western Cape.

West Africa: June/July rainfall has been
beneficial for promising crop and pastures development in most countries of the
region. Rainfall has improved even in areas affected by early season drought
such as in Guinea, northern part of Sierra Leone and in central Nigeria.
Security continues to be a limitation for agricultural activities in large
parts of Mali, Chad, Northern Cameroun and north east Nigeria. In the latter,
seasonal pastoral migration from southern and central areas to the north is
particularly constrained by security concerns.

North Africa: Harvest is complete in
the region and most areas have experienced above average production, with
exceptionally good yields in Morocco (15% above 5 years average for wheat and
23% for barley according to the June MARS bulletin). Only in Tunisia, prolonged
drought conditions in the central part of the country caused a slightly below 5
years average production.

Middle-East: In Syria
and Iraq, winter cereals have been harvested and a production drop is
anticipated for north east Syria (in particular Hassakeh) and north west Iraq
(Ninewa and Dahuk) as a result of the winter-spring drought and conflict; in
Syria, irrigated summer crops are now growing along the Euphrate river and
although the number of irrigated fields is below pre-conflict levels, the
situation has improved with respect to 2017, especially in Raqqa and the
northern third of Dayr Az Zor. In Iran, the overall situation is positive
thanks to good cereal production prospects in the western and northern parts of
the country and despite an expected production drop in the centre - south
(Esfahan, Fars) as a result of a spring dry spell and probable lack of
irrigation water.

Central and
South Asia: as a result of the dry conditions of this winter-spring, and despite
irrigation water, pastures and crops production are well below average in the
south east of Turkmenistan, most of Uzbekistan (especially the south east part in Surkhandarya, Kashkadarya, Samarkand, Bukhara), as well as in a west to north strip of Afghanistan (Hirat, Badghis, Faryab, Jawzjan, Balkh), where winter cereal production is expected to drop with
respect to both average and 2017 levels. In Afghanistan, the area dedicated to
irrigated summer crops is reduced with respect to 2017 most likely due to lack
of irrigation water.

Southeast Asia: Planting of main
season rice is ongoing under favorable conditions in continental southeast Asia
as well as in northern Philippines (with some delay with respect to 2017). In
Indonesia, planting of dry season rice and maize is ongoing under
good conditions. In DPRK conditions are also favorable for both rice and
maize.

Central America:
After a timely
onset of the 2018 Primera season
and favorable development of crops in the early stages, crop conditions are
worsening in the dry corridor. This is the case mainly in Honduras and El
Salvador following rainfall deficits in the last month. In Haiti, conditions
have continued to deteriorate due to dryness since late May, mainly in the
central and southern part of the country and production is expected to be below
average. In Cuba, main season maize and beans conditions are favorable with
only some concerns in the west, again due to dry conditions.

More information for each hotspot country can be found
by clicking on the country in the map.

The August
assessment will be released at the end of August 2018

Hotspot countries:

Afghanistan

Guinea

Haiti

Lesotho

Madagascar

Malawi

Mozambique

Namibia

Nigeria

Sierra Leone

Somalia

South Sudan

Syria

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Zimbabwe

June 2018

East Africa: above average rainfall has
continued to fall in June in large areas of Kenya and southern Ethiopia, which
had been affected by exceptional floods and storms in April and May. In parts
of these countries, as well as in Somalia and Uganda, the largely above average
rainfall will benefit main season crops. However, there is also increased risk
of crop diseases and pests, including locusts and Fall armyworm. Both human and
livestock epidemics are also on the raise where floodwaters are receding. In
Ethiopia progress of the Meher season is generally good, although vegetation
conditions are below average in parts of the north/east due to late onset of
rainfall, dry conditions and a delayed Belg
season. In the north/eastern part of the region, including Sudan and the
northern part of South Sudan, the onset of the rainy season is slightly delayed
and monitoring over the next dekads will be important to understand possible
impacts on agricultural production.

In South Sudan, despite the recent ceasefire between the main conflict
parties, the humanitarian situation is on the brink of famine and cholera
outbreaks in several parts of the country have been reported.

Southern Africa: Harvest
is underway in most parts of Southern Africa and preliminary reports
indicate a decrease in cereal production outputs due to the early season dry
spell that had an adverse effect on crops during crucial development stages.
Most affected are the southern provinces of Mozambique, central and southern
Malawi and southern Zambia. Below average rangeland conditions and early
pastures depletion are visible in southern Namibia and south west Madagascar.
Improved rainfall in the second part of the season is boosting production
prospects in South Africa, northern and central Mozambique, Angola and northern
Malawi. Late planted crops will also benefit production outputs in Zimbabwe.
Carryover stocks from 2017 harvest will support food availability in most countries.

West Africa: June marks the onset of the
main season across the Sahel and early rainfall has been positive in most
areas. In the Sudanean belt and in parts of the Gulf of Guinea however, there
has been early season drought affecting agricultural vegetation in Guinea,
northern part of Sierra Leone and in Benin and central Nigeria. A slight delay
in rainfall onset can be observed also in southern Senegal. Parts of Mali and
Burkina are still affected by low pastoral biomass productivity conditions
following the 2017 drought and leading to pastures deficit and high commodity
prices. Security is a limitation for agricultural activities in large parts of
Mali, Chad, Northern Cameroun and north east Nigeria.

North Africa: At harvest time, the
exceptionally good yields expected in Morocco are confirmed (15% above 5 years
average for wheat and 23% for barley according to the June MARS bulletin).
Yield expectations for Algeria are also clearly above average, while drought
conditions in central Tunisia bring national level yield expectations slightly
below the 5 years average.

Middle-East: Cereal harvest
is completed in Syria and Iraq and a strong decrease in cereal production is
expected in northern Syria (especially Hassakeh, but also Dayr Az Zor and
to a lesser extent Raqqa and Aleppo) and northern Iraq (Ninewa and Dahuk)
as a result of reduced or failed sowings. In the centre - south of Iran
(Esfahan, Fars) production is also expected to be below average due to probable
lack of irrigation water and above average temperatures in February-March,
while conditions and prospects are good for western and north western
Iran.

Central Asia: As a result of the dry
conditions of this winter-spring, pastures availability is well below average
in a large region that includes southeast of Turkmenistan (Mary, Chardzhou, Ahal) and Uzbekistan (Samarkand and Kashkadarya),
northwest-north of Afghanistan (Badghis, Faryab, Jawzjan, Balkh, Sar-e-Pul, Baghlan ), and south of
Tajikistan (Khatlon). Rainfed cereals production is also
expected to strongly drop in the north and west of Afghanistan, the southern
part of Uzbekistan (Kashkadarya and Samarkand) and south east of Turkmenistan
(Mary and Ahal) as a result of drought and reduced or failed sowings.

Southeast Asia: Planting of main season rice is ongoing under
favourable conditions in continental southeast Asia as well as in northern
Philippines (with some delay with respect to 2017). In Indonesia, planting
of dry season rice and maize is ongoing under good conditions. In
DPRK conditions are also favourable (with plentiful water) for rice and maize.

Central America:
The planting of
the primera season is nearing completion in Central America and
conditions are generally favorable throughout with good rains received. Conditions
in Haiti have worsened since last month due to dryness from the end of May to
mid-June mainly in the central and southern part of the country, although the
effects on vegetation are still reduced.

More information for each hotspot country can be found
by clicking on the country in the map.

The July
assessment will be released at the end of July 2018

Hotspot countries:

Afghanistan

Ethiopia

Guinea

Haiti

Iran

Iraq

Kenya

Lesotho

Madagascar

Malawi

Mozambique

Namibia

Sierra Leone

Somalia

South Sudan

Syria

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Zimbabwe

May 2018

East Africa: Most agricultural areas in
the Horn have continued to receive average or above average rainfall in May,
following the exceptional amounts of April. In the main river basins however,
flooding has caused loss of lives and displacement of hundreds of thousands of
people, as well as damage to infrastructure and crops. Strong tropical storms
have been recorded in the region in May and Cyclone Sagar hit the coast of
Somalia and Djibouti at the end of the month. More information on flood impact on
agriculture is available in the Special Alerts section.

Despite the impact of floods in the southern part of Ethiopia, Belg crops have generally developed well
and the Meher season is expected to
start in May/June. In Tanzania crop conditions for the main crop areas in the
South are favorable, while flood damage has been reported mainly in the north
of the country. In Somalia, for non flooded areas the abundant early season
rainfall is beneficial for the early stages of Gu crops and for rangelands recovery. However the country comes out
of 3 consecutive drought years and availability of farming inputs, security and
continued regular rainfall distribution are only some of the crucial factors
for successful crop production. In South Sudan conflict driven food insecurity
remains close to famine level and agricultural activities are reduced. In
Rwanda flooding is reported to have caused major damage to the ongoing crop
season with negative impacts mainly on rice and sugarcane.

Southern Africa: Around harvesting time
in most of Southern Africa crop prospects have improved as compared to earlier
assessments due to above average rainfall in the last 4 months. For example in
northern Zambia, northern Malawi, South Africa, main agricultural areas of
Angola, Northern Mozambique and north east Namibia, expected crop production is
close to average or slightly above. On the contrary, in southern Mozambique,
parts of Zimbabwe, central and southern Malawi, southern Zambia and Lesotho,
crop production is below average due to the impact of early season dry spells. In
other areas, including mainly western and southern Namibia and south west
Madagascar, rainfall deficits have continued from February to April, causing wide
spread damage to crops and rangelands. Fall armyworm has been reported by
several sources as major challenge in most countries in the region. In terms of
food availability most countries, including those with below average production
expectations in 2018, are still benefitting from large stocks of the 2017
bumper harvest.

West Africa: Dry conditions affecting
rangelands in 2017 have reduced pastoral biomass in Mauretania and bordering
areas and led to a biomass deficit that will last until the beginning of the
next growing season in June 2018. These conditions have caused early movements
of pastoralists to Mali and Senegal and led to extended livestock fodder
deficits. This is the case also for areas only partially affected by the 2017
drought such as Niger, now in the lean season. Improvements in the security
situation will be essential for successful field preparation and planting
operations in the North East of Nigeria. Below average early season
rainfall is causing a delay in the start of the season in parts of the Gulf of
Guinea in parts of Guinea, Sierra Leone and to some extent also in Togo, Benin
and central parts of Nigeria.

North Africa: Abundant and well
distributed rainfall has had a beneficial effect on winter cereals in the
Maghreb and generally compensated for water deficits in autumn 2017. The
positive agro-meteo conditions have continued through May and led to upwards
corrections in MARS yield forecasts. Morocco expects a bumper harvest with
wheat yields ca. 20% above average. Latest forecasts for Algeria are also above
average. Central Tunisia remains the main area with below average yield
expectations due to irregular rainfall.

Middle-East: In northern Syria (two thirds of Hassakeh, and also
part of Aleppo, Raqqa and Dayr Az Zor) and in northern Iraq (Ninewa and Dahuk)
cereal production is expected to decrease strongly as a result of reduced or
failed sowings. In contrast, cereal production prospects are good for western and north
western Iran while lack of irrigation water combined with temperatures 6 to 7C
above average have affected the southern arid and less productive areas of the
country (Fars, Esfahan, Marzaki).

Central Asia: as a result of the dry
conditions of the winter/springperiod, pastures production is well below
average in a large region that includes southeast of Turkmenistan (Mary, Chardzhou, Ahal) and Uzbekistan
(Samarkand and Kashkadarya), northwest-north of Afghanistan (Badghis,
Faryab, Jawzjan, Balkh, Sar-e-Pul, Baghlan ), and south of Tajikistan
(Khatlon). Rainfed cereals production is
also expected to strongly drop in the north and west of Afghanistan and also in
the southern part of Uzbekistan (Kashkadarya) as a result of reduced or failed
sowings.

Southeast Asia: planting of wet season rice
has started with favourable conditions in continental southeast Asia while in
Indonesia, after the harvest of main season rice, planting of dry season rice
and maize is taking place under good conditions (Sumatra and the east of Java).

Central America:
The primera season has recently started
in most countries of Central America. Conditions are generally favorable
at this early stage of the season. However, there is some dryness observed
in Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala. In the Caribbean, spring season
is ongoing in Haiti and crops are in vegetative to reproductive stages.
Conditions are favorable despite concerns in localized areas in the west and
south. In Cuba, main season rice planting is underway and conditions are
predominantly favorable. Rainfall in May in coastal Peru and Ecuador have
mitigated drought concerns despite remaining pockets of crop failure.

More information for each hotspot country can be found
by clicking on the country in the map.

The June
assessment will be released at the end of June 2018

Hotspot countries:

Afghanistan

Djibouti

Ethiopia

Guinea

Iraq

Kenya

Lesotho

Liberia

Madagascar

Malawi

Mozambique

Namibia

Rwanda

Sierra Leone

Somalia

South Sudan

Syria

Uzbekistan

Yemen

Zimbabwe

April 2018

Southern Africa: Agrometeorological conditions
in most parts of Southern Africa have improved from February to April as
compared to the widespread early season dry spells and high temperatures in
January. For crops in most of South Africa, northern and central Zambia and in
many pastoral areas (including for example in Botswana), this has led to recovery
of crop and rangeland conditions. Due to larger damages caused by the early
season dry spells, crop recovery is more limited in Zimbabwe, southern Zambia, southern
Mozambique, Lesotho and in south east Botswana, where production forecasts are
below average. In other areas, including mainly Namibia and south west
Madagascar, rainfall deficits have continued from February to April, causing wide
spread damage to crops and rangelands. Fall armyworm has been reported by
several sources as a challenge in most countries in the region.

East Africa:The Horn of Africa has
received abundant early season rainfall, with peaks of up to 200% in parts of
Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia and Uganda where there is an increased risk of
flooding. In Ethiopia Belg crops have developed well with some
exceptions in the north east of the country. In Tanzania crop conditions for the
main crop areas in the South are favorable and rainfall has improved also in
parts of the center affected by early season dryness. In Somalia the good early
season rainfall is beneficial for Gu
planting and for rangelands recovery, but the country comes out of 3
consecutive drought years and availability of farming inputs, security and continued
regular rainfall distribution are only some of the crucial factors for
successful crop production. In South Sudan conflict driven food insecurity
remains close to famine level and agricultural activities are reduced.

North Africa: From February to April
abundant and well distributed rainfall has had a beneficial effect on winter
crops and generally compensated for water deficits in autumn 2017 which had
delayed planting. Below average crop performance is visible only parts of
eastern Algeria and in central Tunisia. According to the latest MARS bulletin (https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files/jrc-mars-bulletin-vol26-no04.pdf),
yield forecasts are slightly above average for the Maghreb countries except for
Algeria (slightly below).

West Africa: Dry conditions affecting rangelands
in 2017 have reduced pastoral biomass in Mauretania and bordering areas led to a
biomass deficit that will last until the beginning of the next growing season
in June 2018. These conditions have caused early movements of pastoralists to
Mali and Senegal and increased animal fodder demand. The conflicts in north
eastern Nigeria and in northern Cameroun continue to negatively impact on agricultural
and post harvest activities. The main crop season in the Sahelian belt will
start in June.

Middle-East: In northern
Syria (in particular in the eastern two thirds of Hassakeh, and also part of
Aleppo and Dayr Az Zor) and in northern Iraq (north-west of Mossoul and west of
Dahuk) high resolution imagery shows that cereals were not sown or have failed
on many fields, in contrast with the 2017 campaign. A strong reduction of cereal
production is therefore anticipated in these regions. In contrast, northern
Iran benefited from good rains and above average temperatures while dry
conditions still affect the southern less productive areas of the country (e.g.
Fars, Esfahan).

Central Asia: As
a result of the dry conditions that persist since this winter, pastures productivity
is clearly reduced in a large region that includes the southeast of Turkmenistan (Mary, Chardzhou) and Uzbekistan (Jizzakh, Samarkand, Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya), northwest-north of Afghanistan (especially Jawzjan, Faryab and Badghis, and to a
lesser extent Sar-e-Pul, Balkh and Hirat), and south of Tajikistan (Khatlon). Rainfed cereals
in this region are also expected to have a production drop.

Southeast Asia: Conditions
are favorable for the starting harvest of dry season rice in continental
southeast Asia and for the main season rice harvest in Indonesia.

Central America
and the Caribbean: In Central America, land preparation is underway
for the start of the Primera season in mid-May. In Cuba,
sowing for main season rice is underway under normal conditions despite some
concern in localized areas due to dry conditions, whereas in Haiti maize and
bean planting of the spring season is ongoing with some below average
precipitation in April. In the coastal areas of Ecuador and to some extent
in Peru, cereals production is affected by drought.

More information for each hotspot country can be found
by clicking on the country in the map.

The May
assessment will be released at the end of May 2018

Hotspot countries:

Afghanistan

Botswana

Ecuador

Iraq

Lesotho

Madagascar

Malawi

Mozambique

Namibia

South Sudan

Syria

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Zimbabwe

March 2018

Southern Africa: Rainfall in most parts
of Southern Africa has improved in February and March following widespread
early season dry spells and high temperatures in January. For crops in South
Africa, parts of Zambia and Madagascar and in many pastoral areas (including
for example Botswana), this has led to partial recovery of crop and rangeland
conditions. Due to larger damages caused by the early season dry spells, crop
recovery is more difficult in Zimbabwe, Southern Zambia, Lesotho and in south east
Botswana. In other areas, including mainly Namibia and south west Madagascar,
rainfall deficits have continued throughout February and March causing wide
spread damage to crops and rangelands. Fall armyworm has been reported by
several sources as major challenge in most countries in the region.

East Africa:parts of the region including Belg areas in Ethiopia and bi-modal crop
areas in Uganda are benefitting from an early start of the rainy season. In
Kenya, March rainfall has been particularly intensive leading to an increased
risk of flooding. In Tanzania the main crop areas in the South are doing well
and rainfall has improved also in parts of the center affected by early season
dryness. In Somalia the main season is expected to start in April and due to 4
consecutive drought seasons and prolonged conflict, food security in the
country is mainly guaranteed by humanitarian support.

North Africa: In February and March there
has been abundant rainfall in most of Morocco, allowing good growth of late
planted winter crops. On the contrary in Algeria the early season water deficit
in the eastern and central parts have continued and are making below average
yields in these areas likely. In Tunisia crop conditions appear mixed, with a good
levels of recovery in the north and south but below average in the center.

West Africa: Dry conditions affecting rangelands
in 2017 have reduced pastoral biomass in Mauretania and bordering areas led to a
biomass deficit that will last until the beginning of the next growing season
in June 2018. These conditions have caused early movements of pastoralists to
Mali and Senegal and increased animal fodder demand. The conflicts in north
eastern Nigeria and in northern Cameroun continue to negatively impact on agricultural
and post harvest activities.

Middle-East: After the good rains of
January and February, over the last month a dry spell has affected
the center west of Syria from Idleb to Dara. In contrast, the main cereal
production area of northern Syria (Hassakeh and Aleppo) as well as the
northern regions of Iraq (Dahuk, Ninewa and Kirkuk) continue to show
vegetation biomass levels below pre-conflict levels, despite the good
rainfall received since January. In the southern part of Iraq, after the dry winter
conditions, cereals have received favourable rainfalls in February. In Iran dry
conditions are still affecting the centre-south of the country, with below
average biomass levels for winter cereals in Fars.

Central Asia: The dry conditions that
prevailed since October over a region including the southeast of Turkmenistan
and Uzbekistan, northwest and north of Afghanistan and south of Tajikistan,
have resulted in below average biomass levels for pastures in the whole region.
They also limit winter cereals growth mainly in the north west of Afghanistan (Balkh,
Jawzjan, Faryab, Badghis, Hirat) and southeast of Uzbekistan (Surkhandarya
and Kashkadarya). This extended drought starts to cause concern for the
availability of water for the irrigation of summer crops.

Southeast Asia: Over continental
south-east Asia, dry season rice is growing under favorable conditions. In
Indonesia, beneficial rainfall for the ongoing main season rice was
received over the last month on the southern part of Sumatra and the western
part of Java.

Central America
and the Caribbean: In Central America, most regions are out of
season. The Apanate season is almost complete in Guatemala and Nicaragua and overall
prospects are favorable due to good rains received. The 2018 spring season is
starting in Haiti under favorable conditions for planting maize and beans crops.

More information for each hotspot country can be found
by clicking on the country in the map.

The April
assessment will be released at the end of April 2018

Hotspot countries:

Afghanistan

Algeria

Botswana

Ecuador

Iraq

Kenya

Lesotho

Madagascar

Malawi

Mozambique

Namibia

Somalia

South Africa

Syria

Uzbekistan

Zambia

Zimbabwe

February 2018

East Africa: Second season production was
affected by drought in Somalia and parts of Kenya and Tanzania. In Somalia most
crop and rangeland areas in the southern and central parts have received only
50-70% of the average seasonal rainfall, and crop production is reported by
FSNAU to be below 80% of long term average in the South and only 30% in North
West. This is the fourth consecutive season with crop and livestock
productivity hampered by drought and aggravates a food security situation
bordering famine (since the 2016 Deyr season) with large parts of the
population depending on external assistance. Land preparation has started for
the 2018 Belg season in Ethiopia and for the main rainy season in Kenya, Uganda
and central Tanzania. Pastoral areas in north eastern Kenya and in Somalia are experiencing
early biomass depletion and high temperatures.

West Africa: Most of the region is out of
season now with the exception of rice crops. Dry conditions affecting pastoral
areas in 2017 have seriously reduced pastoral biomass in Mauretania and
bordering areas leading to early movements of pastoralists to Mali and Senegal
and increasing demand of animal fodder. The conflicts in north eastern Nigeria and
in northern Cameroun continue to negatively impact on agricultural and post
harvest activities.

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa rainfall
has improved in February following widespread early season dry spells and heat
stress. For parts of Mozambique, Malawi, eastern Zimbabwe and Zambia this might
help crops to recover. While for other areas for example in Namibia,
central/southern Zimbabwe, Botswana and Madagascar crop damage is more advanced
and reduces yield expectations. Fall armyworm has been reported in most
countries in the region. In South Africa the eastern part of the country has
benefited from abundant rainfall in the first part of the season and yellow
maize conditions are normal, while white maize grown in the central parts (Free
State and North West) are still suffering water stress lowering yield
expectations.

North Africa: Morocco and Algeria
continue to be affected by a water deficit that started in October October 2017.
In January and February rainfall has improved in the central parts of Morocco
and central and western coast of Algeria. The exact impact of the delayed
planting and early season water stress will only be fully visible when crops
will be around the middle of the cycle. In Tunisia crop conditions appear
mixed, below average in the eastern parts close to Algeria and above average in
the western part including south west.

Middle-East: After the dry spell that
affected the region over October-December, good rains were received in January
and February in Syria, Iraq and northern Iran. In northern Syria and
northern Iraq, the biomass of winter crops is still below pre-conflict levels,
partly as a result of the conflict, and despite temperatures 2 to 3C warmer
than average for Syria and Iraq.

In contrast, southern Iraq since December, and now the centre and south of
Iran are affected by drought, with a limited impact on crops for the time being,
thanks to irrigation.

Central Asia: the dry conditions observed
since last October continue to affect pastures in a region including the
southeast of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, the south of Tajikistan and a large
part of Afghanistan. It is still too early to assess the impact of this drought
on rainfed winter cereals.

Southeast Asia: favorable conditions for
early vegetative growth of dry season rice in most countries and for main
season rice in Indonesia.

Central America
and the Caribbean: Harvest of the second season (postrera) is
ongoing and prospects are positive due to good rains received throughout the
season. Similarly, the short Apante season (January –March) is underway under
favorable conditions in Guatemala and Nicaragua due to positive rains.

More information for each hotspot country can be found
by clicking on the country in the map.

The March
assessment will be released at the end of March 2018

Hotspot countries:

Afghanistan

Algeria

Angola

Botswana

D.R. Congo

Iran

Iraq

Kenya

Madagascar

Malawi

Morocco

Mozambique

Namibia

Somalia

South Africa

Swaziland

Syria

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

January 2018

East Africa: The ongoing La Niña event has
caused drought conditions in parts of the Horn of Africa affecting the second
crop season production (harvested in December/January) in Somalia, Kenya and
parts of Tanzania. In Somalia most crop and rangeland areas
in the southern and central parts have received only 50-70% of the average seasonal
rainfall, and crop production is reported by FSNAU to be below 80% of long term
average in the South and only 30% in North West. This is the fourth consecutive
season with crop and livestock productivity hampered by drought and aggravates
a food security situation bordering famine (since the 2016 Deyr season) with
large parts of the population depending on external assistance. In Kenya, the
eastern pastoral areas and part of the coastal marginal crop areas are also affected,
and livestock prices in those areas are rapidly decreasing. The main productive
area in Eritrea’s Gash Barka region (accounting for half of the national crop
production) has also experienced unfavorable crop conditions. In Ethiopia the
main season was generally characterized by positive agro-climatic conditions,
while yield reductions in various areas of the country depend mainly on fall
armyworm infestation. In Tanzania in the bimodal north east and in part of the
mono-modal center, rainfall was below average with peaks of up to 70% deficit. Low
domestic food production in South Sudan at the end of the 2017 main season will
lead to a high food gap in South Sudan in 2018.

West Africa: The main season ended in
December in the mono-seasonal part of the area and was generally favorable with
the exception of the drought that affected Mauretania and Northern Senegal. The
event was particularly severe for rangelands and the early depletion of
pastoral vegetation caused large losses of livestock and forced pastoralists to
migrate to neighboring countries. Also localized
areas in Mali, Burkina, Niger and Chad have experienced dry spells during the
crop season. In the Gulf of Guinea the second maize season has improved in its
late stages following an initial water deficit. The conflicts in north eastern
Nigeria and in northern Cameroun continue to negatively impact agricultural activities.

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa the
dry conditions that started in late November continued throughout December and
in January, leading to reduced yield expectations in several countries. At
around the middle of the summer crop season, crop conditions are affected by
drought stress in parts of Zimbabwe (mainly West Mashonaland, Northern
Matabeleland and Masvingo), central/north of South Africa (mainly Free State
and North West), in north east and south east Botswana, in the coastal part of
Angola, North of Namibia and Southern Madagascar. Erratic rainfall in January
has caused dry spells also in the northern part of the region, which had
experienced abundant rainfall in the initial part of the season (eg. in Malawi
and Southern Zambia). Fall armyworm is also reported to be a problem for the
2017-2018 season in most of the area.

North Africa: Morocco and Algeria are
affected by a water deficit that started in October October 2017. In January
rainfall has improved in the central parts of Morocco and central and western
coast of Algeria. Late planting could still lead to average yields in parts of
Morocco, assuming good rainfall in the next month. Conditions have improved
also in parts of coastal and western Algeria, while in the eastern part 2018
yields expectations remain low. In Tunisia crop conditions appear mixed, below
average in the eastern parts close to Algeria and above average in the western
part including south west.

Middle East: The whole region (including southern
Turkey, Syria, Iraq and western Iran) has received about 40-60% of the normal
October-December rainfall. Winter cereals are still at an early stage, so
the impact of the autumn dry spell, which is likely to compound the
consequences of conflict for Syria and Iraq, cannot yet be assessed.

As for Yemen,
December-February is generally out of season for farming activities, but all
productive activities in the country still suffers the consequences of the
ongoing conflict.

Central Asia: Drier than average conditions over
October-December affected pastures of the region going from eastern
Turkmenistan (Mary, Chardshou), southern Uzbekistan (Kashkadarya, Samarkand, Surkhandarya),
southwestern Tajikistan (Khatlon) and the provinces on the western and northern
border of Afghanistan. No impact on winter cereals is visible yet.

Southeast Asia: In continental southeast Asia, December
corresponds to the end of harvest for the main wet season rice and the start of
planting of winter-spring rice. No particular event is to be reported (apart
from tropical storms with limited impact on rice cultivation over
Philippines).

Central America
and the Caribbean: The Postrera season is complete and
overall prospects are favorable due to good rains received across Central
America that benefited maize and beans crops.

More information for each hotspot country can be found
by clicking on the country in the map.

The February
assessment will be released at the end of February 2018

Hotspot countries:

Algeria

Angola

Botswana

Iraq

Kenya

Madagascar

Malawi

Morocco

Namibia

Somalia

South Africa

Syria

Tanzania

Yemen

Zimbabwe

December 2017

East Africa: The ongoing La Niña event has
caused drought conditions in parts of the Horn of Africa affecting mainly
Somalia and Kenya. In Somalia most crop and rangeland areas
in the southern and central parts have received only 50-70% of the average seasonal
rainfall, and the only close to average rainfall was concentrated in November. This
is the fourth consecutive season with crop and livestock productivity hampered
by drought and risks to aggravate a food security situation already bordering
famine (since the 2016 Deyr season). In Kenya, the eastern pastoral areas and part
of the coastal marginal crop areas are also affected, and livestock prices in
those areas are rapidly decreasing. The main productive area in Eritrea’s Gash
Barka region (accounting for half of the national crop production) has also
experienced unfavorable crop conditions.

In Ethiopia the main season was generally characterized by positive
agro-climatic conditions, while yield reductions in various areas of the
country depend mainly on fall armyworm infestation. In Tanzania in the bimodal north
east and in part of the mono-modal center, rainfall is below average with peaks
of up to 70% deficit. Low domestic food production in South Sudan at the end of
the 2017 main season will lead to a high food gap in South Sudan in 2018.

West Africa: The main season ended in
December in the uni-seasonal part of the region and was generally favorable with
the exception of the drought that affected Mauretania and Northern Senegal. The
event was particularly severe for rangelands and the early depletion of
pastoral vegetation caused large losses of livestock and forced pastoralists to
migrate to neighbouring countries. Also localized
areas in Mali, Burkina, Niger and Chad have experienced dry spells during the
crop season. In the Gulf of Guinea the second maize season shows a slightly below
average performance in several countries including parts of Benin and southern
Nigeria. The conflict in north eastern Nigeria continues to negatively impact
agricultural activities and part of the north east (Adamawa and Gombe in
particular) is experiencing low pastoral biomass production due early rainfall
cessation.

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa most
agricultural regions are in vegetative stage and planting took place under
generally positive agro-climatic conditions. In November however, rainfall decreased
in parts of South Africa, Swaziland and in the coastal and central part of
Angola. Good December rainfall reestablished a generally positive summer crop
outlook in South Africa, with only a central north/south belt still affected by
rainfall deficits. In Angola the situation has improved for the main cereal
growing areas as compared to November, but rainfall deficits remain in the
central coastal areas. Rainfall has decreased in December in the South of
Mozambique and Zimbabwe, but initial seasonal rainfall was above average in
those areas.

North Africa: Most of Morocco and Algeria
are affected by a water deficit of increasing intensity since October 2017. Conditions
have improved in parts of Coastal Algeria in November/December, but for the
other areas this deficit (mostly between 30 and 50% of the 90 days rainfall) is
leading to low 2018 yields expectations. In parts of Morocco, vegetation
conditions at this stage of the season are below those of 2016, the last
drought year.

Middle East:The whole
region (including southern Turkey, Syria, Iraq and western Iran) has
received about 40-60% of the normal October-December rainfall. Winter
cereals are still at an early stage, so the impact of the autumn dry spell,
which is likely to compound the consequences of conflict for Syria and Iraq,
cannot yet be assessed.

As for Yemen,
December-February corresponds to a break period for farming activities, but the
country still suffers from the consequences of the ongoing conflict.

Central Asia: Drier than
average conditions over October-December affected pastures of the region
going from eastern Turkmenistan (Mary, Chardshou), southern Uzbekistan (Kashkadarya, Samarkand, Surkhandarya),
southwestern Tajikistan (Khatlon) and the provinces on the western and northern
border of Afghanistan. No impact on winter cereals is visible yet.

Southeast Asia: In continental
southeast Asia, December corresponds to the end of harvest for the main wet
season rice and the start of planting of winter-spring rice. No particular
event is to be reported (apart from tropical storms with limited impact on rice
cultivation over Philippines).

Central America
and the Caribbean: The Postrera season is complete and overall prospects are favorable due to good
rains received across Central America that benefited maize and beans crops.

More information for each hotspot country can be found
by clicking on the country in the map.

The January
assessment will be released at the end of January 2018

Hotspot countries:

Algeria

Angola

Iraq

Kenya

Malawi

Morocco

Nigeria

Somalia

Syria

Tanzania

Yemen

November 2017

East Africa:At the end of the Deyr rainy
season most crop and rangeland areas in southern and central Somalia have
received only 50-70% of the average seasonal rainfall. For Somalia this is the
fourth season with crop and livestock productivity hampered by drought and
risks to aggravate a food security situation already bordering famine (since
the 2016 Deyr season). In Kenya, the north and south eastern pastoral areas and
part of the coastal marginal crop areas are also concerned. The main productive
areas in Eritrea’s Gash Barka region (accounting for half of the national crop
production) are also suffering drought conditions. The current drought in the
Horn is linked to a weak la Niña event which could also negatively impact on the
2018 rainy season.
In Ethiopia the main season is progressing well in the main cereal producing
regions from an agro-climatic point of view, while yield reductions in various
areas of the country are dependent mainly on fall armyworm infestation.
Rainfall has improved in the Eastern part of the pastoral areas in Ethiopias
Somali region. In Sudan the main producing areas have recovered after initially
irregular rainfall, while vegetation performance anomalies remain visible in
Kassala state and parts of Gedaref. Finally in South Sudan, agricultural
production is expected to perform poorly because of the ongoing conflict and
despite favorable agro-climatic conditions.

West Africa: The drought hitting
Mauretania and the northern part of Senegal since July 2017 has continued until
the end of the main season and has lead to insufficient production of pastoral
biomass. According to reports by various sources, seasonal pastoral migration
in these regions has begun much earlier than usual and herders are moving to
neighboring regions in Mali, which also suffered rainfall deficit. The main
crop season in the Sahel is entering the harvesting period and yield
expectations are generally close to average or above, while localized areas in
Mali, Burkina, Niger and Chad have experienced dry spells during the crop
season. In the Gulf of Guinea the second
maize season started late and performance is slightly below average. The
conflict in north eastern Nigeria continues to negatively impact agricultural
activities and part of the north East (Adamawa and Gombe in particular) is
experiencing low pastoral biomass production due to rainfall deficits.

Southern Africa: In Southern Africa most
agricultural regions are in an early vegetative stage and planting took place
under generally positive agro-climatic conditions. In November rainfall has
decreased however in South Africa’s main cereal producing regions, Lesotho and
Swaziland, in the coastal and central part of Angola, in Northern Mozambique
and in the Southern half of Madagascar. In most of these areas there is ample
room for recovery, but rainfall needs to be monitored carefully over the next
weeks.

North Africa: Most of Morocco and the
eastern Algeria are affected by a water deficit of increasing intensity since
October. There is still time for winter crop planting which can extend to
December, but rainfall in late November and in December will be crucial.
Conditions have improved in parts of Eastern Algeria.

Central and
south Asia: a dry spell
affected the region going from south Kazakhstan to eastern Uzbekistan over the
last month / trimester at the start of winter cereals growth. However it is too
early to assess any impact on wheat and barley growth.

South East Asia: harvest of the main season rice is ending in most countries of the
continent as well as north Philippines and fields are prepared for
winter/spring rice planting. In Indonesia, the planting of main season rice in Java and south Sumatra and the sowings
of maize are ongoing.

Middle East: Most of Iran (centre north and northwest) and the western half of Syria
(especially Aleppo and Idleb) have been affected by an autumn dry
spell with about half of the average rainfall received over the last one to three
months. Impact on winter cereals sowings and emergence is however difficult to
assess at this stage. In north eastern Iraq (Sulaymaniyah), as in 2016, the
growth of winter cereals is delayed with respect to the long term average,
maybe as a result of a shift towards spring cereals or because of the drier
conditions than average.

In Yemen, the sorghum season is ending in the main
production area (Al Hudaydah) which received 50% of its average rainfall over
the last three months. Although there is apparently no biomass reduction with
respect to the average, the consequences of the conflict and cholera outbreak
are causes of major concern.

Central America
and the Caribbean: The postrera season is underway across Central
America with favorable conditions due to good rains received. However, some
floods have been reported from mid-September to end-October affecting postrera planting
and primera harvest in areas of the Central region. The most
affected areas have been located in valleys, coastal plains, riversides. For
example, damages to agriculture have been reported in Rivas, Ometepe, Madriz,
Boaco and Estelí, Jinotega (Nicaragua) and in Cobán, Sayaxché, Chisec
and Ixcán (Guatemala).

More information for each hotspot country can be found
by clicking on the country in the map.

The December
assessment is scheduled for the second week of January 2018 with a slight delay due to Christmas and End of the Year Festivities.

Hotspot countries:

Algeria

Angola

Eritrea

Iraq

Kenya

Mauritania

Morocco

Nigeria

Senegal

Somalia

South Sudan

Syria

Yemen

October 2017

East
Africa: Drought is
again affecting the Horn of Africa with a significant delay and low amounts of
the seasonal Deyr rainfall in Somalia
and in the Somali region of Ethiopia. For Somalia this is the fourth season
with crop and livestock productivity hampered by drought and risks to aggravate
a food security situation already bordering famine. Repetitive drought and
prolonged conflict is seriously eroding livelihoods and food security resilience.
There is still room for late season recovery, but seasonal weather forecasts from
various sources are pointing towards below average seasonal totals. In Kenya
the north eastern pastoral areas and the coastal marginal crop areas are also
concerned. The main productive areas in Eritrea’s Gash Barka region (accounting
for half of the national crop production) are also affected by drought.
In Ethiopia the main season is progressing well in the main cereal producing
regions from an agro-climatic point of view, while yield reductions in various
areas of the country are dependent mainly on fall armyworm infestation. In
Sudan the main producing areas have recovered after initially irregular
rainfall, while vegetation performance anomalies remain visible in Kassala
state and parts of Gedaref. Finally in South Sudan, agricultural production is
expected to perform poorly because of the ongoing conflict and despite favorable
agro-climatic conditions.

Southern Africa: Planting and early vegetative crop
conditions are generally taking place in favourable conditions across the
region, with an area of slight water deficit concentrated in parts of central
and northern Angola. In South Africa the main season has started well in the
central and eastern parts of the country. Winter wheat production in Western
Cape (harvesting time) is expected to be slightly below average due to early
season drought leading to low yields (production is expected to be close to
average thanks to a substantial increase in area planted in the Cape area as
compared to 2016).

West Africa: The main crop season in the Sahel is generally
developing well, apart from the impact of flood events that hit several
countries in the area between August and October, including Niger, Sierra
Leone, parts of Senegal and Guinea Bissau. Dry conditions are affecting mainly
pastoral areas close to the border between Mauritania and Senegal in both
countries, while irrigated crop production (including rice) appears performing
well. In the Gulf of Guinea a delay in planting and below average crop
performance is affecting the second maize season for example in Côte d’Ivoire and Benin. The conflict in north eastern Nigeria continues
to negatively impact agricultural activities.

North Africa: North eastern Algeria is affected by early
season water deficit which follows on dry conditions in the last part of the
previous season. In parts of central and northern Egypt a small delay of the
winter season has been detected.

Middle East: In western Syria,the onset of autumn rains is slightly
delayed but still in time for cereals sowing. In Iraq, barley is expected to be
sown soon in the northern and eastern regions. In both countries, the
production of irrigated summer crops along the Euphrate river (Raqqa and Dayr
Az Zor in Syria, Anbar in Iraq) has dropped with respect to pre-conflict levels
as a result of damage to irrigation equipment, lack of fuel, fertilizer, seeds
and manpower. In Yemen, drier than average conditions have been observed over
end July – start October for the southern regions of Lahj and Abyan as well as
the more productive region of Al Hudaydah. Little impact is visible until now, but there is a high risk of decreased agricultural activities due to conflict and Cholera outbreak.

Central Asia: Overall crop conditions are
generally favourable for wheat harvest in Kazakhstan and for summer crops (including
cotton) in the southern countries of the region.

South and Southeast
Asia: In south
Asia, overall weather conditions appear to be favourable for rice maturation.
In most of the continental part of south-east Asia, the main season rice is at
mid cycle with favourable rainfall. In the other regions (Indonesia,
Phiipinnes), overall conditions are also good.

Central America and
the Caribbean: Overall
conditions are mostly favorable with good rains and temperature across Central
America. In the Caribbean region, there are some areas affected by dry
conditions and Hurricane Irma has caused localized crop damage.

More information for each hotspot country can be found by clicking on
the country in the map.

The November assessment is scheduled
for December 1st

Hotspot countries:

Algeria

Côte d'Ivoire

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Haiti

Kenya

Mauritania

Nigeria

Somalia

South Sudan

Syria

Yemen

September 2017

East
Africa: The main season
is generally progressing well in Ethiopia from an agro-climatic point of view, while concerns remain due to armyworm damage. In Sudan irregular rainfall is
lowering production expectations in both marginal and high potential areas. For
most other parts in the region the long rainy season has been below average,
including Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania due to a combination of poor rainfall and
Fall Armyworm infestation. In south/central Somalia the Gu production was 37% below average according to FSNAU and long
cycle sorghum in the north west also performed poorly. Main productive areas in
Eritrea are also affected by drought. Finally in South Sudan, agricultural
production is expected to perform poorly because of the ongoing conflict and
despite favorable agro-climatic conditions.

Southern Africa: The main season is about to start
and monitoring rainfall in the next weeks will be important. The region
experienced a generally very good 2016/2017 production, while winter wheat in
South Africa had a low outcome due to early season drought leading to low area
planted and low performance.

West Africa: The main crop season in the Sahel is
generally developing well, with the exception of many areas hit by floods in
Sierra Leone, parts of Senegal and Guinea Bissau. Dry conditions are affecting
mainly pastoral areas close to the border between Mauritania and Senegal in both
countries, while irrigated crop production (including rice) appears still
performing well. In the Gulf of Guinea a slight delay in planting is affecting
the second maize season for example in Côte d’Ivoire and
Benin. The conflict in north eastern Nigeria continues to negatively impact
agricultural activities.

Central Africa: Agro-climatic conditions have been
generally favorable during the 2017 main season and threats to agricultural
production are due mainly to humanitarian conflicts and insecurity.

Middle East: despite drier than average
conditions over the last three months (which correspond to the dry season) in
the centre north and the north-east of Iran (Ghazvin, Tehran and Ardebil) as
well as in south Yemen (from Abyan to Taizz), summer crops appear to be in good
conditions thanks to irrigation. In Syria, as in 2016, there is a clear
reduction of production for irrigated summer crops with respect to pre-conflict
levels in Raqqa and Dayr Az Zor.

Central Asia: Overall crop conditions are
generally favourable over the whole region thanks to irrigation and despite
some dry spell in southern Tajikistan (Khatlon) and the central part of
Uzbekistan (Surkhandarya, Samarkand, Jizzakh and Sirdarya).

South and Southeast
Asia: In south
and south-east Asia, crop conditions generally appear to be favourable, despite
minor dry spells in eastern Afghanistan (Nangarhar) and north-east
Pakistan. From August to early September heavy monsoon floods destroyed large crop
areas in Bangladesh and caused reduced rice yield expectations in Nepal.

Democratic Republic of
North Korea: In the
rice bowl area, crops appear to have recovered from their delayed planting
caused by the June dry spell and their biomass is now slightly above average.
Harvest time is approaching for maize and rice and final yields will depend
among other factors on the level of maturity that crops can reach in the areas
that were planted late.

Central America and the
Caribbean: Overall conditions are favorable due
to good rains in the dry corridor, where harvest is underway for the
main primera season. Caribbean crop conditions were generally
favorable before 7-10 September when Hurricane Irma struck north Haiti and Cuba
causing crop losses and agricultural damage. In the regions affected by the
hurricane crop production prospects are still uncertain.

Hotspot countries:

Bangladesh

Côte d'Ivoire

Cuba

Djibouti

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Haiti

Kenya

Mauritania

Nepal

Nigeria

Somalia

South Africa

South Sudan

Sudan

Syria

Uganda

Yemen

August 2017

East Africa: In the unimodal areas located mainly in Sudan and parts of Ethiopia the season is generally progressing well, although for North Darfur and for the main productive areas in East Sudan, initial dry conditions have been followed by intensive rainfall with increased risk of flooding. The first season in the bimodal areas has ended in July/August and has been underperforming in Somalia, Kenya, and parts of Uganda, adding pressure to the difficult food security situation especially in the first two. In Kenya late planted crops in the Rift Valley and central regions have benefitted from July/August rainfall, but overall production expectations remain below average. The pastoral drylands in the North are now in dry season but experienced a short growing cycle and early decline of pastoral vegetation availability. In Somalia the long cycle crops in the North West are also performing badly and the national Gu production is reported to be 38% below average. Ethiopia is experiencing a food security crisis in the South East due to prolonged drought. The main agricultural areas in the center of the country are generally performing well so far, while water deficits continue to affect Meher crops in SNNPR and Eastern Oromia regions and are also visible in Afar and Eastern Amhara. The presence of fall armyworm (FAW) in the region also continues to be a risk factor for Meher crops. In Uganda late rainfall has improved crop conditions in the Northern part, while conditions of long cycle sorghum in Karamoja are still critically dependent on additional rainfall. Finally in South Sudan, despite improved rainfall in May-June, crop conditions are below average in several states and agricultural activities are reduced due to the ongoing conflict.

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region the main season ended in April and most countries in the region have recovered quite well from initial delay of the season as well as from major armyworm invasion targeting mainly Maize. South Africa has harvested particularly good cereal crops (>25% above average). However the winter wheat areas in the Western Cape have experienced drought in the initial stages of the season (and reduced planting) and despite normal rainfall in July/August, current production prospects report a 20% reduction of winter wheat and barley in the Western Cape.
West Africa: Crop conditions in the Sahel countries are generally favorable so far, while a prolonged dry spell has affected the border area between Senegal and Mauritania. In July and August a slight rainfall deficit can be observed in the Vakaga region in CAR, in North Eastern Nigeria and in parts of Chad. Strong rainfall and flooding has been reported in early September in the South of Senegal, the Gambia, Guinea Bissau and Sierra Leone.

Middle East: Harvest of wheat and barley is over in the region and only summer crops are still growing depending on irrigation. In Yemen, some rainfall deficit occurred in August on the western part of the country (Al Hudaydah). Combined with conflict, this deficit may result in reduced sorghum and wheat harvests.

Central Asia: Crop conditions are generally favourable over the whole region. Rainfall deficit has been observed for the June - August period in the southern countries (Uzbekistan, southern Tajikistan and eastern Afghanistan) and two southern provinces of Kazakhstan, but thanks to irrigation, no impact on crop biomass is visible.

South and Southeast Asia: In south Asia, heavy monsoon have hit Nepal and Bangladesh in August, causing major floods and damaging about 80,000 ha of crops in Nepal according to the UN. Besides this damage, crop conditions are generally good. In Pakistan, conditions of irrigated crops appear favourable despite a small rain deficit over Punjab, as well as Balochistan and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. In Southeast continental Asia and Philippines, the main season rice is in good conditions. This is also the case for the off season rice in Indonesia.

Democratic Republic of North Korea: In August, the rice bowl area and in particular the area south to Pyongyang received above average rainfall and crop biomass appears to have recovered in most of the rice bowl provinces; however, the final rice and maize production is expected to be below average as a result of the delayed planting. The situation needs to be monitored.

Central America and Caribbean: the region is experiencing an exceptionally good crop season due to above average rainfall. Rainfall deficits in Cuba have not caused major damage to crops yet. In Haiti crop conditions are generally good but there are some concerns due to low rainfall in the southern part.

Hotspot countries:

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Kenya

Mauritania

North Korea

Somalia

South Africa

South Sudan

Sudan

Syria

Uganda

July 2017

Agricultural
production problems in food insecure areas have slightly decreased as compared
to previous months with basically no hotspots in Central America and Central
and South East Asia. The main season ended well in Southern and Northern Africa
and is progressing without major problems in West Africa. Eastern Africa
remains the region with the main concerns due to a prolonged drought affecting
several countries in the region. There are concerns about drought in the
Democratic Republic of North Korea.

East
Africa: The long
rains season was characterized by rainfall deficits in May-June across Kenya,
Somalia, Southern Ethiopia and Northern Uganda. According to reports, vast
areas in Western Kenya, Ethiopia and in Uganda have been invaded by fall armyworm
and treatments were often not successful. In Kenya the Western main maize production
areas have recovered to close to average production despite low rainfall, but
the central and rift valley areas have reduced yield expectations. Coastal
areas experienced high rainfall concentrated in few events and the beginning of
the season, followed by irregular rains. The pastoral drylands in the North are
now in dry season but experienced a short growing cycle and early decline of
pastoral vegetation availability. Somalia has received some rainfall in May but
cumulated amounts remain far below average leading to a decreased Gu cereals production (harvest in
July/August), which will add further stress to the critical food security
situation following the failed 2016 Deyr
season. In Tanzania the mono-modal crop areas in the center, now harvested,
suffered from a late start and low rainfall early in the season, while bimodal
areas in the North West and to some extent also along the coast are again
affected by rainfall deficits. In Uganda the North and Southwestern areas are
affected by drought as well as pastoral areas in Karamoja and part of Northern
Uganda. In Ethiopia the Belg season (harvested
now) was characterized by irregular rainfallwith negative effects concentrated in East Oromia and Somali regions. The
main agricultural areas in the center of the country are performing well so far
and in the Northern parts May and June rainfall has favoured good crop
conditions, while water deficits continue to affect Meher crops in SNNPR and Eastern
Oromia regions. Finally in South Sudan, despite improved rainfall in May-June,
there are still deficits across the Kapoeta regions and to a minor extent in other
agricultural regions, which come on top of possible impact of conflict on
agriculture.

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region the main season
ended in April and most countries in the region have recovered quite well from
initial delay of the season as well as from major armyworm invasion targeting
mainly Maize. South Africa has harvested particularly good cereals crops
(>25% above average). However the winter wheat areas in the Western Cape
(and crop areas with similar climate in Northern and Eastern Cape) are affected
by drought and despite some recent improvements a below average production can
be expected. Low yields are also expected in the coastal and highland parts of
Angola which have experienced irregular rainfall distribution during the whole
season and the rice growing areas in North Eastern Madagascar.

West
Africa: Early crop
conditions in the Sahel countries are generally favorable so far, while some
early season dry spells have affected the Southern part mainly in Northern
Ghana, Ivory coast, Benin and Togo. A delayed start of the season and below
average crop conditions can be observed in June also in western regions of
Nigeria (mainly pockets of Kwara and Niger provinces). Most of the region has
benefitted from strong rains in July and latest concerns are rather about too much
rainfall.

North Africa: the Maghreb area has overall experienced good winter
rainfall and mild spring temperatures favoring wheat and barley development. From
March to May rainfall has been below average which has impacted crop conditions
mainly in Northern and North Eastern Algeria. Yield prospects according to the
MARS bulletin are good in Morocco and close to average in Tunisia, Libya and
Egypt, while in Algeria the dry and hot spring conditions are causing yield
reductions close to 20%.

Middle East: After a
delayed start of season, wheat and barley seem to have recovered and yields
look close to average, except in Syria due to conflict, where according to FAO/WFP
wheat production is half the pre-conflict average production. Also irrigated
summer crops areas (e.g. in Dayr Az Zor) appear to be reduced with respect to
the (pre-conflict) average.

Central Asia: In the northern part of central Asia
(Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan), conditions are favourable while the southern
countries (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and parts of
Afghanistan) experience a strong rainfall deficit, with however no visible
impact as most crops are irrigated.

South and Southeast
Asia: Average to favourable conditions in Bangladesh,
Pakistan and Nepal. In southeast Asia
(Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Philippines), planting of the
main season rice is ongoing with favourable rainfall conditions. Good
conditions also for Indonesia.

Democratic Republic
of North Korea: After average rainfall conditions in March and
April, the southern part of the rice bowl area (N. And S. Hwanghae) started
experiencing rainfall deficit in May. This deficit affected the whole rice
bowl area in June, being particularly severe on the northern provinces of
the area (N. & S. Pyongan and Pyongyang). Good rain fell on
the first dekad of July, but the May June dry spell must have affected the
early crops yields (potatoes, winter wheat and barley) of this region which
accounts for 70% of all crops production (and 75% of the rice production),
This dry spell has delayed rice planting and maize sowings, which
normally take place in May-June, by about one month. The impact of these
late sowings will have to be monitored during the season.

Central America and Caribbean: Despite the late start of the primera
season, most countries in Central America and the Caribbean have recovered
quite well due to positive rainfall with favorable maize and bean prospects for
the season. Ecuador is facing an early end of the season with several below
average rainfall conditions, which in turn has produced deterioration of
croplands in coastal regions.

Hotspot countries:

Ethiopia

Kenya

North Korea

Somalia

South Africa

South Sudan

Syria

Tanzania

Uganda

June 2017

At the
global level agricultural production problems in food insecure areas have slightly decreased as
compared to the previous months, with no hotspots in Central America and Central and
South-East Asia. The main season generally ended well in Southern and Northern Africa and
is progressing without major problems in West Africa. Eastern Africa remains
the region with the main concerns due to the partial failure of the long rains.

East
Africa: The long
rains season was characterized by deficits in May-June across Kenya,
Somalia, Southern Ethiopia, South Sudan and Northern Uganda. In addition large areas in
Western Kenya and in Uganda have been invaded by Armyworm and treatments where
often not successful. In Kenya both the
Western main maize production areas and the Rift Valley areas received below
average rainfall while marginal coastal areas experienced high rainfall
concentrated in few events. Somalia has received some rainfall in May but
cumulated amounts remain far below average leading to a decreased Gu cereals production (harvested in
July/August), which will add further stress to the critical food security
situation following the failed 2016 Deyr
season. In Tanzania the mono-modal crop areas in the center, now being
harvested, suffered from a late start and low rainfall early in the season,
while bimodal areas in the South are performing well. The bimodal areas in the
North West and to some extent also along the coast are again affected by
rainfall deficits. In Uganda the North and central parts of the country continue
to experience a rainfall deficit despite some improvement in May. In Karamoja
and part of Northern Uganda, pastoral areas are also affected by drought. In
Ethiopia the Belg season (bein
harvested now) was characterized by irregular rainfall. The most affected areas are in East Oromia and Somali regions.
The main agricultural areas in the Center of the country are performing well so
far and in the Nothern parts May and June rainfall has favoured good crop
conditions. Finally in South Sudan, despite improved rainfall in May-June,
there are still deficits across the Kapoeta regions and to a minor extent in
Northern Bhar el Ghazal, which come on top of possible impact of conflict on
agriculture.

Middle East - Central Asia:

The region
is generally performing well with no production hotspots identified in June,
apart from an expected below average production in Syria linked to the ongoing conflict.
In the Middle-East, harvest of wheat and barley is on going. After a delayed
start of season in Iraq and Iran, crops have recovered in May-June. Favourable
conditions are observed in Kazakhstan and in the other Central Asian republics
(TJK, KGZ, TKM, UZB). Drier than average conditions over the
centre-eastern part of Afghanistan and north western part of Pakistan (with
roughly 30-50% of the normal rainfall received over the last three months) do
not seem to have impacted crops thanks to irrigation.

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region the main season
ended in April and most countries in the region have recovered quite well from
initial delay of the season as well as from major army worm invasion targeting
mainly Maize. South Africa is expecting a particularly good cereals harvest
(>25% above average). However the winter wheat areas in the Western Cape
(and crop areas with similar climate in Northern and Eastern Cape) are badly
affected by drought and significantly below average production is expected. Low
yields are also expected in the coastal and highland parts of Angola which have
experienced irregular rainfall distribution during the whole season and the
rice growing areas in North Eastern Madagascar.

West
Africa: Early crop
conditions in the Sahel countries are generally favorable so far, while some
early season dry spells have affected the Southern part mainly in Northern
Ghana, Ivory coast, Benin and Togo. A delayed start of the season and below
average crop conditions can be observed in June also in western regions of
Nigeria (mainly pockets of Kwara and Niger provinces).

North Africa: the Maghreb area has overall experienced good winter
rainfall and mild spring temperatures favoring wheat and barley development. From
March to May rainfall has been below average which has impacted crop conditions
mainly in Northern and North Eastern Algeria. Yield prospects according to the
MARS bulletin are good in Morocco and close to average in Tunisia, Libya and
Egypt, while in Algeria the dry and hot spring conditions are causing yield
reductions close to 20%.

Southeast Asia: South-east Asia: the main season rice is
starting with favourable rainfall conditions overall.

Central America and Caribbean: Conditions
in Central America are generally favorable for the primera season
crops, mainly maize and beans, as a result of beneficial rains
received since mid-May. There have been some dry spells only in
north Honduras and Guatemala. The Caribbean area faced some dryness at the end
of May and beginning of June but without a clear impact on crop production yet.

Hotspot countries:

Algeria

Ethiopia

Kenya

Nigeria

Somalia

South Africa

South Sudan

Syria

Tanzania

Uganda

May 2017

At the end
of May 2017 the main crop season affected by poor long rains in Eastern Africa
remains of concern, while a number of countries in the Middle East and Central
Asia also continue to experience problems to their main crop season (eg. Iran
and Iraq) or decreased cereal areas due to conflict (Syria).

East
Africa: The long
rains season remains characterized by rainfall deficits in May in Kenya,
Somalia, Southern Ethiopia and northern Uganda. In Kenya rainfall has been
below average in most of the country, and in the high production areas in
Western Kenya army worm infestation has been reported. Torrential rainfall in
the coastal provinces in May has had little benefit to crops and exposed
riverine areas to flooding. Somalia has received some rainfall in May but
cumulated amounts are 30-60% below average and a decreased Gu production will add further stress to the critical food security
situation following the failed 2016 Deyr
season. In Tanzania the mono-modal crop areas in the center still suffer from
late start and low rainfall early in the season, while bimodal areas in the
South are performing well. The bimodal areas in the North West and to some
extent also along the coast are again affected by rainfall deficits. In Uganda
the North and central parts of the country continue to experience a rainfall
deficit despite some improvement in May. The North Eastern pastoral areas are
also affected by drought. In Ethiopia Belg
season rainfall was characterized by irregular rainfall which has also
delayed main season planting. The most
affected areas are in East Oromia and Somali regions. The main agricultural
areas in the Center of the country are perfoming well so far and in the Nothern
parts May rainfall has also improved crop conditions. Finally in South Sudan
there are rainfall deficits across the Kapoeta regions which come on top of
possible impact of conflict on agriculture.

Middle East - Central Asia: We expect
lower than average cereals production levels in northern Syria as a result of
the ongoing conflict, but also in northern Iraq (Kurdistan region) and the
centre-west of Iran due to the delayed onset of vegetation growth.

Southern Africa: In the Southern Africa region the main season
ended in April and most countries in the region have recovered quite well from
initial delay of the season as well as from major army worm invasion targeting
mainly Maize. South Africa is expecting a particularly good cereals harvest
(>25% above average). However the winter wheat areas in the Western Cape are
badly affected by drought and significantly below average production is
expected. Low yields are also expected in the coastal and highland parts of
Angola which have experienced irregular rainfall distribution during the whole
season and the rice growing areas in North Eastern Madagascar.

West
Africa: In the
southern part early crop conditions are generally favorable so far, with dry
spells visible mainly in Northern Ghana, Ivory coast, Benin and Togo as well as
in the western regions of Nigeria (mainly pockets of Kwara and Niger provinces).
Planting is going on in the Sahelian belt and irrigated rice is reported to
perform well.

North Africa: the Maghreb area has overall experienced good winter
rainfall and mild spring temperatures favoring wheat and barley development. From
March to May rainfall has been below average which has impacted crop conditions
mainly in Northern and North Eastern Algeria. Yield prospects according to the
MARS bulletin are exceptionally good in Morocco and close to average in
Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.

Southeast Asia: For the northern part of SE Asia (Myanmar,
Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Northern Philippines), the main season rice
planting has started while for the southern part (Indonesia, South Philippines,
Timor Leste), the harvest of the main season rice is underway, with good levels
of production expected; this harvest should be followed by the start of dry
season rice planting.

Central America and Caribbean: The
main crop season (primera) started late due to lower
than normal rainfall in April that lead to soil moisture constraints
in the dry corridor in Central America, in particular Guatemala, Honduras and
El Salvador. Positive rainfall in May mitigated drought concerns and
maize planting has already begun.

Hotspot countries:

Benin

Ethiopia

Ghana

Iran

Kenya

Liberia

Madagascar

Nigeria

Somalia

South Sudan

Syria

Tanzania

Togo

Uganda

April 2017

At the end
of April 2017 the main situation of concern for agricultural hotspots in
countries affected by food insecurity is still located in Eastern Africa with
poor long rains, while a number of countries in the Middle East and Central
Asia also experienced a delayed start of the main season (eg. Iran and Iraq) or
low cereal areas due to conflict (Syria).

East
Africa: The long
rains season has not performed well so far in Kenya, Somalia and Uganda. In
Kenya rainfall has been below average in most of the country, and in the high
production areas in Western Kenya army worm infestation has been reported.
Somalia has received some rainfall in April, but the cumulated amounts in both
Southern and North Western agricultural areas are still clearly below average
and below Gu average would further
aggravate the critical food security situation following the failed Deyr season. In Tanzania the mono-modal
crop areas in the center still suffer from late start and low rainfall early in
the season, while bimodal areas in the South are performing well. The bimodal
areas in the North West and to some extent also along the coast area again affected
by rainfall deficits. In Uganda the North and central parts of the country are
affected by rainfall deficits leading to a late seasonal start. The North
Eastern pastoral areas are also affected by drought. In Ethiopia Belg season rainfall was partially below
average and early Meher rainfall has
also been below average in the Southern part of the country (including East
Oromia and Somali regions). Finally in South Sudan there are rainfall deficits
across the Kapoeta regions which come on top of possible impact of conflict on
agriculture.

Middle East - Central Asia:

Good
rainfall in northern Syria in March-April should favour growth of natural
vegetation but cereals production is expected to be lower than average due to
conflict. In Iraq, good rainfall in the Kurdistan region. Still below
average conditions along the Euphrate river. In Iran, delayed vegetation
growth in the north-west and centre west - situation to be monitored. Dry
conditions over eastern Afghanistan (south and east of Kabul) at the very start
of the crop season.

Southern
Africa: In the
Southern Africa region end of April corresponds to the end of the main season. Most countries in the region
have recovered quite well from initial delay of the season as well as from
major army worm invasion targeting mainly Maize. South Africa is expecting a
particularly good cereals harvest (>25% above average). The main exceptions
in the region are in the coastal and highland parts of Angola which have experienced
irregular rainfall distribution during the whole season and the rice growing
areas in North Eastern Madagascar.

West
Africa: The main
season planting has started and early crop conditions are generally favorable
so far. Irrigated rice is reported to
perform well. The only area with limitations for agricultural production is
North East Nigeria due to the ongoing conflict.

North Africa: the Maghreb area has overall experienced good winter
rainfall and mild spring temperatures favoring wheat and barley development. In
March and April rainfall has been below average, but with the exception of
North East and North West Algeria crop conditions are not affected yet. Yield prospects
according to the MARS bulletin are exceptionally good in Morocco and close to
average in Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.

Southeast Asia: Harvest is underway in northern Southeast Asia
and in Indonesia with generally positive yield prospects due to sufficient
irrigation water. Dry season rice is also progressing under generally favorable
conditions in Vietnam, Cambodia and Philippines.

Central America and Caribbean: Most regions remain out of season, planting of the 2017 Primera season is expected in mid-May. The
main summer season in Bolivia and Peru is nearing completion, with above
average prospects despite the dry conditions at the beginning of the season.

Hotspot countries:

Angola

Ethiopia

Iran

Iraq

Kenya

Madagascar

Somalia

South Sudan

Syria

Tanzania

Uganda

March 2017

In March 2017 the main hotspots for agricultural production remain concentrated in Eastern Africa with a number of countries in the Middle East and Central Asia also showing a delayed start of the main season, due to a combination of irregular rainfall, abundant cloud cover and in some cases snow.

West Africa: The main season has not started yet and irrigated rice is reported to perform well. The only area with limitations for agricultural production is North East Nigeria due to the ongoing conflict.

East Africa: The long rains season is starting in Kenya and follows a below average short rains production combined with drought affecting the pastoral regions in the Northern part of the country. In the marginal agricultural areas along the coast, a failed short rains season is currently being followed by a delay in the onset of the long rains. Somalia is currently in the dry season, but a sequence of seasonal failures have led to an ongoing humanitarian crisis and millions of people depend on external aid, while wheather forecasts indicate below average Gu rainfall, risking to further aggravate the situation. In Tanzania the main maize area in the South and Center are benefitting from rainfall in February and March leading to an improvement of an initially delayed season. The initial rainfall of the second season in the bimodal areas has performed well so far. Rainfall has improved also in Uganda over the whole cattle corridor, leading to a positive start of the main season and an improvement of pasture conditions. The bimodal parts of Ethiopia have received some early Belg rainfall, but vegetation activity and water availability in all the Southern States is still very low following the drought experienced in late 2016.

Southern Africa: the abundant and continuous rainfall that has characterized the main season since mid December has continued throughout February and March and has generally improved crop and pasture conditions with the exception of some areas in Angola (North West), Namibia (Kunene) and Madagascar (Centre/North) and parts of Mozambique (Centre/West). South Africa has announced bumper harvest expectations with 15% above average production for the main maize areas. The army worm outbreak that affected several countries at the beginning of the year has had different impact across the region, with limited effects reported for Zimbabwe and higher losses in Zambia.

North Africa: the Maghreb area has experienced good rainfall for cereals since December with intensive rainfall and some snow in February. Prospects according to the MARS bulletin are exceptionally good in Morocco and close to average in Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. Some rainfall deficits can be observed in North/Eastern Algeria.

Middle East - Central Asia: below average vegetation conditions and delayed start of crop season (possibly due to snow in central Asia in TJK, KGZ, central AFG - or to failed autumn sowings of winter cereals. The latter is particularly is particularly evident in Syria, but affects the whole region, including North and West Iraq, the Northern half of Iran till Turkmenistan, West Kirghizstan, East Uzbekistan and North Afghanistan.

SE Asia: Very wet conditions in southern Philippines (Mindamao) in mid February and early March may have affected wet season rice close to harvest.

Central America and Caribbean: crop development is close to average due to positive rainfalls received in the last two months and generally compensating for dry condition at the beginning of the season.

Hotspot countries:

Afghanistan

Iran

Iraq

Kenya

Kyrgyzstan

Philippines

Somalia

Syria

Tanzania

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Zambia

February 2017

At the end
of February 2017 agricultural conditions in food insecure countries
are relatively good and the 3 major hotspot countries (Somalia, Kenya and
Tanzania) have remained the same as in January. Several minor hotspots remain
in Eastern and Southern Africa as well as in the middle East and South East
Asia.

West Africa: the main season in 2016 has performed well.
The only area with limitations for agricultural production due to the ongoing
conflict is North East Nigeria.

East
Africa: The failed
Deyr rainfall following a low production Gu season and link to scarce
availability of pasture and drinking water is causing a humanitarian crisis. On
top of the current critical situation, forecasts for the next Gu season
starting in April are also negative. In
the coastal areas of Kenya short rains have failed and production in the rest
of the country was below average. Most of the pastoral areas in North are
experiencing a particularly harsh dry season. In Tanzania the Vuli season in
both the North Western and the Eastern Coastal regions was affected by drought
and the main maize season in its initial stage in the South is also affected by
rainfall deficits. A similar situation (below average short season production
followed by dry onset of main season) can be observed in the central and southern
parts of Uganda.

Southern
Africa: the
abundant and continuous rainfall that has characterized the main season since
mid December has continued throughout February and has generally improved crop
and pasture conditions with the exception of some areas in Angola (North West),
Namibia (North West) and Madagascar (rice areas). South Africa has announced
bumper harvest expectations with 15% above average production for the main
maize areas. Concerns are due to an
outbreak of army worms destroying maize plants in Zambia Zimbabwe and Malawi.
Treatments against the non endemic pest have shown to be scarcely effective.

Middle
East: Winter
cereals growth is delayed in most parts of Syria (including the NE cereal
producing region) and NE and W of Iraq, a situation that needs to be monitored
and confirmed in the next months.

South
East Asia:
Generally good crop conditions, except for excess rain in the eastern part of
central Philippines.

Central America and Caribbean: Overall conditions are favorable.
Despite rainfall deficits observed since January, vegetation conditions in
the most affected areas (Bolivia and Peru) has improved due to normal or
above-normal rainfall situation at the beginning of February.

Hotspot countries:

Burundi

Iraq

Kenya

Madagascar

Nigeria

Peru

Philippines

Rwanda

Somalia

Syria

Tanzania

Uganda

Zambia

Zimbabwe

January 2017

At the end of January 2017 agricultural conditions in food insecure countries are
relatively good with the exception of 3 major (Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania) and
several minor hotspots countries In Sub Saharan Africa.

West Africa: most of the region is currently out of season and the main season
ending in late 2016 has generally performed well.

East Africa: In Somalia the Deyr season has experienced a crop production failure
comparable to the 2010 drought which led to a major famine. Pastoral areas
across the country are also affected by low biomass and water shortages.
The main crop season was not very performant also in Southern Ethiopia, while the most
productive areas of the country had generally a good production. In the coastal
areas of Kenya (where this is the main crop season) crop production is also
expected to be very low for the second time in a row. In Tanzania the Vuli
season in both the North Western and the Eastern Coastal regions are affected
by drought and the main maize season in the central area is also affected by
rainfall deficits.

Southern Africa: despite a slightly late start of the main seasonal rainfall, from the second
dekad of December there has been abundant rainfall across the region and favorable
agro-climatic conditions with the exception of parts of Angola (North and
Central), Namibia (North West), Northern Mozambique and Madagascar. An outbreak
of army worms destroying maize plants has been reported in Zimbabwe, Zambia and
Malawi.

Middle East: Winter cereals growth is delayed in most parts of Syria (including the NE
cereal producing region) and NE and W of Iraq, a situation that needs to be
monitored and confirmed in the next months.

South East Asia: Generally good crop conditions, but possible tropical storm impacts in
Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam.

Central America and Caribbean: Overall conditions are favorable across Central America
and the Postrera harvests are nearing completion with production prospects
above average. In Peru and Bolivia, the summer growing season is underway and
maize production is still affected by dry conditions in November.

Hotspot countries:

Angola

Bolivia

Burundi

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Iraq

Kenya

Madagascar

Mozambique

Namibia

Peru

Rwanda

Somalia

Syria

Tanzania

Uganda

Zimbabwe

December 2016

In mid-December
agricultural conditions in most food insecure countries are relatively good with
only minor agricultural production hotspots in Central America and in South
East Asia. In Sub Saharan Africa however la Nina related drought conditions are
worsening in parts of East Africa and there are signs of a delayed main season
across Southern Africa.

Central America and Caribbean: The
Postrera season is coming to an end and has been mostly favorable across Central America, despite some drought
concerns in northern Nicaragua and El Salvador and some floods in southern
Nicaragua due to Hurricane Otto. Drought in the coastal regions of Peru is
affecting maize crops in their early development after planting.

Middle East: In Iraq drier than average conditions over southern
Iraq to be monitored.

West Africa: the season is coming to an end and has been
mostly favorable in the whole Sahel belt, despite a delayed start in parts of
Senegal and the West of the region.

East Africa: in Somalia the Deyr season has been seriously
affected drought from the beginning of the season in October and late rains in
November were not sufficient for recovery. The second season is also delayed in
Southern Ethiopia (Somalia regions and Eastern Oromia). In the coastal areas of
Kenya (where this is the main crop season) crop production is also expected to be
very low for the second time in a row. In Tanzania the Vuli season in both the
North Western and the Eastern Coastal regions are affected by drought.

Southern Africa: the main crop season is still at an early stage
in the agricultural regions and performance is variable so far: while the
productive areas of South Africa had good rainfall, there are delays in the
start of the season in Southern Angola, Northern Namibia, South West Zambia, parts
of Botswana and Southern Madagascar. In these countries a new drought following
last year’s low production season affected by El Nino would have serious
consequences on food security. Continuous monitoring over the next weeks is
recommended.

South East Asia: Generally good crop
conditions. Only in Pakistan we can see low greenness of rangeland areas.

Hotspot countries:

Algeria

Angola

Botswana

Burundi

Ethiopia

Iraq

Kenya

Madagascar

Mozambique

Namibia

Pakistan

Peru

Somalia

Tanzania

Uganda

Zambia

Zimbabwe

November 2016

At the end of November agricultural conditions in most food insecure countries are relatively good without agricultural production hotspots in Central America and in South East Asia. Minor hotspots situations are mainly limited to East Africa, while there are first signs of a delayded main season across Southern Africa.

Central America and Caribbean: the postrera seasons is progressing well due to close to average rainfall performance across the region.Some dry spells have been reported by other sources in El Salvador.

Middle East: no rainfall over Oct – Nov 20 in the centre-south of Iraq and in some Syrian governorates (Dayr Az Azor, Damascus) or below average rainfall over other governorates (Raqqa, Hassakeh, Homs) may jeopardize wheat and barley crops recently sown.

West Africa: the season is coming to an end and has been mostly favorable in the whole Sahel belt, despite a delayed start in parts of Senegal and the West of the region.

East Africa: in Somalia the second season has been seriously affected by a major rainfall deficit affecting the South and Central regions. Pastoral areas in central Somalia and Puntland area also suffering drought conditions. The second season is also delayed in Southern Ethiopia (Somalia regions and Eastern Oromia). Rainfall deficits are threatening short rains season in coastal areas of Kenya (Where this is the main crop season), while the highly prodcutive Victoria basin is also showing impact of rainfall deficit. In Tanzania both the North Western and the Eastern Coastal regions are affected by drought.

Southern Africa: the main crop season is just starting in the agricultural regions and performance is variable so far: while the productive areas of South Africa had good rainfall, there are delays in the start of the season in Southern Angola, Northern Namibia, South West Zambia and parts of Botswana. In these countries a new drought following the last years low production season affected by El Nino would have serious consequences on food security. Continuous monitoring over the next weeks is recommended.

South East Asia: crops (rice mainly) seem to have recovered with respect to the average condition, following an initial delay in rice planting in Vietnam (Mekong delta), Cambodia (Battambang area), Thailand (central region) and Myanmar (Irrawaddy delta), with some concerns remaining mainly in North Vietnam.

Hotspot countries:

Algeria

Angola

Botswana

Burundi

Ethiopia

Iraq

Kenya

Mozambique

Namibia

Rwanda

Somalia

Syria

Tanzania

Uganda

Zambia

October 2016

In late October agricultural conditions in most food insecure areas are generally
positive with only a limited number of hotspots with climatic anomalies
affecting production.

AFRICA: in West Africa the season is coming to an end and has been
mostly favorable in the whole Sahel belt, despite a delayed start in parts of
Senegal and the West of the region. The only area with a prolonged dryspell
starting in late August is in central Nigeria, where Maize and Millet yields
could be affected. Late season rainfall was slightly below average also in
Southern Niger and South East Senegal. In East Africa the second season in
Somalia is expected to be seriously affected by a major rainfall deficit. The
second season seems slightly delayed also in Southern Ethiopia, South East
Kenya, Northern Tanzania, parts of Uganda and Rwanda. The low rainfall is
typical for the ongoing moderate La Nina event.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN: The postrera season is generally
progressing well with minor local dry spots in El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala.
The only hotspot in the region is Haiti, where accourding to UN OCHA 80% of the
crop area has been destroyed by Hurricane Matthew.

MIDDLE EAST: Poor harvest of winter cereals in N Syria (Aleppo, Raqqa
and Deir es Zor) is followed by likely decrease of irrigation along the
Euphrate river. The latter problem is also partially affecting Iraq.

SOUTHEAST ASIA: The main rice season in Myanmar has been affected by
drought in the late phase. Also there is concern in the Mekong delta for floods
and effects of excessive rainfall, while dry conditions are damaging crops in
North Vietnam.

Disclaimer

The ASAP Analyst Assessment information is provided by researchers of JRC's Food Security Unit, based on best knowledge and evidence derived from analysis of global remote sensing data and atmospheric circulation model outputs. The agronomic evaluation expressed and the geographic and thematic information contained does not imply a policy position of the European Commission.

Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this information.