>> Saturday, January 13, 2007

The weather is quiet, but it is certainly a busy work day for me. As I have mentioned, I am covering both the Triad and Charlotte markets this evening. Also, News 14 Carolina is carrying a Charlotte Bobcats game tonight, so there is some extra work involved with that. Add to those items the fact that the forecast next week is a very complex and complicated one....pass the tylenol. Don't get me wrong; I am not complaining at all....I love my work. But, it has been non-stop.....

A big ice storm continues for parts of the Plains states, especially in Oklahoma and Missouri. And, more ice and snow is on the way Sunday. The temperature contrast in Tecas is amazing. At this hour (6pm), the temp in Dallas is 32 with freezing drizzle while Lufkin, TX has a temp of 74! Amazing.....

That arctic front has stalled, as expected, this evening, and it won't move much tomorrow. However, the front will head our way again Monday and should move through later Monday night. Until then, it will remain very warm with lows of lower 70s for highs around our area Sunday and Monday.

However, I think Tuesday is a day with primarily falling temps through the 40s, and I still think many of us will not make it out of the 30s Wednesday or Thursday. As the front moves through, some showers look possible Monday night into Tuesday morning. A few snow flurries could mix in Tuesday morning, but it does not look like a big deal.

The models are really all over the place for second half of next week. Almost all modelling wants to being in some overrunning precip by the weekend, but any details further than that are anybody's guess right now. In fact, the GFS bring overrunning precip in here as early as Thursday, but most other modelling is much slower than that.

I think all options are open next week, with anything from wintry weather to slightly above average temps being possible in the Thursday-Saturday time-frame. My lean at this point is toward primarily a chilly rain arriving late in the week, but I would not be shocked if some sort of wintry weather issues must be addressed across North Carolina. But, at this point, it is still completely up in the air.

>> Friday, January 12, 2007

Anchoring the weather for the Triad again this evening. WIll handle both Charlotte and the Triad tomorrow evening, then Charlotte only for Sunday.

Here are some things on my mind regarding the weather...

Very warm weekend ahead with highs and lows around 20 degrees above average!

All of the while, a big ice and snow storm is occurring over the Plains states. Oklahoma City has been in the 20s all day with occasional freezing rain. As I am typing this, the temp at OKC is 23 with a north wind sustained at 21mph.....

Wow...that is about all you can about the tremendous cold over the Plains states. As I am typing this, there are lots of temps between -10 and -20 over parts of North Dakota nad Minnesota. Brrr....

Arctic front will push through the Carolinas later Monday or Monday night. It looks like our best shot at rain showers will occur Monday night or Tuesday.

The computer modelling has really under-estimated both the movement of the front today as well as just how cold the air behind the front actually is. Will definitely keep that in the back of my head for next week.

Don't miss this....it will be quite cold next week from Tuesday onward. I still expect most highs in the 30s Wednesday and Thursday, and some upper teens appear possible for lows Thursday or Friday morning.

What about wintry weather? It is interesting to note the Canadian model throws a lot of precip in here Wednesday of next week. But, at this point, that model is sort of an outlier with that scenario. But, I still think we have a shot at some overrunning precip sometime Tuesday night through Thursday morning. I doubt it is anything major in terms of wintry weather, but it is certainly something I will keep a close eye on. The computer models will likely not be able to resolve what exactly will happen around here next week until Sunday or Monday at the earliest, so trust no model this weekend.

Thanks to everyone for reading and for your great questions. Keep them coming, and I will be happy to answer.
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>> Thursday, January 11, 2007

Busy night at work tonight. I am the meteorologist for the Triad market tonight, and I will be once again tomorrow and Saturday nights. Actually, Saturday night I will be the meteorologist for both the Charlotte and Triad markets.

I have always had to battle chronic headaches, but for some reason, I have had even more of a battle with them over the past few days. Woke up this morning, and the first thing I think is "wow....that hurts." Got that one under control during the day, then during my live block this evening, another good one set in. I seem to be getting that one under control now thankfully.

Some quick hits on upcoming weather events....

Not as cold tonight due to clouds....mainly 30s for lows.

Warm weekend ahead...I still think some spots will hit the lower 70s Sunday.

Arctic cold front moves through Monday. We could see some showers, but I do not think the prospects of heavy rain are all that great.

Much colder air takes hold Monday night and Tuesday and will last for much of next week. In fact, I don't think we will get our highs out of the 30s Wednesday or Thursday next week.

I still think the potential for some sort of overrunning precipitation event next week has to be watched...expecially Tuesday into Wednesday. At this point, it looks like any precip we could see at that time would be light, but it also looks like it would likely be of the wintry variety. I still am leaning the way of this not being a big deal, but I will keep an eye on it for sure.

Second half of January looks to feature primarily below average temps around here. Just how cold seems to be the question.

Everyone have a great night. If you have any questions, feel free to ask in the comments section below. God bless...
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>> Wednesday, January 10, 2007

After a few days off out of town spending some time with family, I am back home and getting back into the forecasting groove now. It is a rarity for me when I am off to completely step away from keeping up with the weather, but that is what happened this time. I literally had not looked at one forecast map from when I finished my evening shift in the Triad Thursday evening until we got back home yesterday evening. And, for me, it takes a bit of time to get back into the swing of things, forecasting-wise.

However, with all of that said, it sure looks like the ideas laid out here in late December are working out well. If you remember, I had said that the signs of a significant pattern change would likely be evident between the 10th and 15th of January. Well, here we sit on January 10, and it finally feels like winter out there. Here are some items I am looking at for our region.....

Cold night tonight with lows in the low to mid 20s. I would not be shocked to even see some upper teens on the map tomorrow morning.

Big warm-up this weekend with highs in the 60s Saturday and probably lower 70s Sunday.

Showers, and possibly some thunderstorms, roll through Monday as an arctic cold front sags through our region.

By Monday night and Tuesday, arctic air has taken over the region, and we could wind up being lucky to get out of the 30s Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

There is a chance we see some sort of wave develop on the arctic front once it is to our south Tuesday or Wednesday. Right now, it is suppression city on most modelling...meaning, most modelling is showing the northern branch of the jet stream crushing the southern stream system that could roll through here. However, that is a known GFS bias, and there have been flashes on other modelling that we could try to get some wintry weather in the Carolinas Tuesday or Wednesday. My gut instinct at this point is that the Tuesday-Wednesday system will likely be too suppressed to give our viewing area significant precip. But, I said that with a word or caution, and things could change.

I think much of the rest of the month of January, beginning Tuesday of next week, will feature temps trending on the colder side of average. Through yesterday, CLT is an impressive +9.1 in the temp department for the month so far. I think there is a good chance CLT will wind up below average when the month is said and done. That might be a bit extreme, but I certainly think the second half of the month will be MUCH colder than the first half.