Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Making A Run For The Roses

I have been going to the Kentucky Derby for 11 years now. It’s my wife’s family’s annual trip (her parents have been going for about 40 years), and it’s a lot of fun--if you are into overpacking suitcases, wearing funny hats, eating, drinking and gambling too much, and generally partying/getting on each other’s nerves while laughing at the way Kentuckians talk once a year. It really is a good time.

Last year I finally picked my first Derby winner, Big Brown. In 11 years I have chosen the second place finisher once, the last place finisher once, and everything in between. With nearly 20 horses in the race every year, it’s a lot harder to pick the winner than you think. So this year, instead of focusing on the horses, I’m going to give you the odds on what really happens at the race. These odds have been scientifically calculated, by me, based on 11 years of observation, experience, careful note taking, and heavy drinking.

True Kentucky Derby Odds

Odds that people will wear funny hats: 1 to 1000 (That means if you wagerd $1000 dollars on this bet, you would win $1. It's that much of a sure thing. For an explanation of how odds work, go here.)

Odds that I will wear a funny hat: 0 (my hat always looks good and classy.)

Over/under on how many beers I will drink at the Derby: 8 (take the over)

Odds that Churchill Downs will take all of my gambling money: Even (Really, I am a horrible horse player. I would do better standing outside the port-o-potty area and betting on which person would come out of the toilet first. I have actually become a great predictor of this, based on a few factors I have noticed through the years--but that is another blog for another time. As for horses, I know nothing.)

Odds that the diminutive size of the jockeys will freak me out: Even (I don’t know why, but little people have always had this effect on me. Really, I have nightmares about this, like one time I dreamed of a tiny Jason Vorhees chasing me down a hallway. It was terrifying. Regular sized Jason Vorhees doesn’t scare me at all, but tiny Vorhees has me scrambling out the nearest window.)

Odds that any of the jockeys will look as good as Kristen Johnson does in this photo: 0 (Really, this is Kristen Johnson? The chick from Third Rock from the Sun?)

Odds that I will wear this awesome bowtie with a lavender colored shirt and matching purple suspenders: Even (My wife and I dress up every year. I used to fight it, but now I just go with it and it’s actually fun and I’m even becoming a bit of a whore for Kentucky Derby fashion. I own 4 hats, including a boater, a seersucker suit, a madras coat, a $200 pair of shoes and purple suspenders, for crying out loud.)

Odds that I will be able to tie this awesome bow tie: 12 to 1

Odds that I will spill food/condiments on my lavender shirt: Even

Odds that I will spill beer on my lavender shirt: 1 to 4

Odds that I will make it through the day without spilling anything on my lavender shirt only to have some random drunk do it for me: 1 to 10 (This happens every year.)

Over/under on how many times I will stare inappropriately at abundantly exposed cleavage: 247 (Take the over as it is my contention that after the long, cold, overdressed winters of Chicago the first Saturday of May in Kentucky is really and truly the first day of SPRING(!) as far as I'm concerned.)

Over/under on how many times my wife will catch me staring inappropriately at abundantly exposed cleavage: 7 (take the over)

Odds that I will care that I have been busted: 1 to 3

Odds that my wife will care: Even

Odds that I will care the seventh time I am busted: Even

Odds that my horse pick this year, I Want Revenge, will win the Derby: 6 to 1

Odds that my pick will get his revenge: 0 (Do horses ever get revenge?)

Odds that Khan will get his revenge: 0 (He did kill Spock, indirectly. Does that count?)

Odds that my wife’s pick, Dunkirk, will finish ahead of my horse: 1 to 5 (Take this bet, she is a much better horse player than me.)

Odds that my wife will secretly think she is a much better horse player than me: Even

Odds that my father-in-law will openly think my wife is a much better horse player than me: 1 to 2

Odds that my wife will secretly think I look better in my Derby outfit than she does in hers: Even

Odds that she will loathe me for this: 1 to 10

Odds that she will loathe me for this after she has had too many mint juleps: Even

Odds that I actually do look better in my Derby outfit than she does in hers: No chance

Odds that a poor, unfortunate horse will have to be put down after the race, like Eight Belles did last year: 30 to 1

Odds that I will make a poor, unfortunate comment immediately after this happens and everyone will hate me: Even

Odds that I will have a great time: Better than Even (I’m already having fun!)