Fantasy football: NFL broadcasters in fantasy of their own

Sunday

Dec 9, 2012 at 6:00 AM

Josh Bousquet Fantasy Sports

Somewhere during the last couple of weeks it was decided by those on high that no NFL telecast could occur without discussion of the league’s wonderful rookies. This rule applies even if one of those first-year players was not playing in that game.

This is almost understandable as we get to crunching playoff scenarios and find Andrew Luck’s Colts, Robert Griffin III’s Redskins and Russell Wilson’s Seahawks battling for playoff spots that their teams would not have been guaranteed without them.

To further hype up the class, it then becomes necessary to pretend that Miami’s Ryan Tannehill and Cleveland’s Brandon Weeden are almost at that stage … oh, and what about Tampa Bay running back Doug Martin? Apparently rookies aren’t made to play only quarterback, after all.

With all these guys getting so much attention, I figured it was time to check in on the fantasy side of things and see where they all stand, for we don’t always come up with the same answers.

Like in Cleveland, where I understand the optimism — a tough thing to come by in that city — as the Browns have some key young pieces in place. Weeden, though, has thrown more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (13), an imbalance that has to change before he can be taken seriously in our game.

I still like his trajectory better than Tannehill’s, though. The Dolphins currently are the better overall team, but their rookie QB still has a bigger interception (12) to TD (7) disparity. Miami has also lost four of its last five games. Cleveland opened the season with five straight losses, but has gone 4-3 since. With those trends, I’d be more interested in Weeden as a late sleeper QB pick next season than Tannehill.

With Wilson, we’re finally hitting upon someone that you could have looked to this year. I’m putting that in the past tense since we’re beyond needing bye-week fill-ins. If you are still riding Wilson at this point, you’re probably not reading this as you have disavowed ever caring about fantasy football again after you missed the playoffs.

Wilson hasn’t put up huge numbers through the air, passing for only 2,344 yards. To put this in perspective, that is behind Mark Sanchez and less than 40 yard ahead of Christian Ponder. What the Seattle QB has done, though, is minimize mistakes (only eight interceptions) and throw 19 touchdowns, tops among the rookie starters. I look for him to be drafted as a backup in most leagues next season.

Luck and Griffin have stood out above those others, though, already starting in most leagues. Luck has reached this point even though his 16 interceptions are tied for the league lead and his touchdown total of 17 just barely gives him a positive ratio.

The Colts quarterback started this week’s games ranked fourth in passing yards, though, with 3,596. That slinging mentality helps offset some of those picks. He’s rejuvenated receiver Reggie Wayne and even made us think a player like Donnie Avery is worth looking into. The picks will keep Luck from being among the elite discussion, but he won’t be a bad second-tier starting QB, with great potential next year.

Griffin, though, is far above the rest from the fantasy perspective. His 17 passing touchdowns match Luck’s, but he has hurt owners a lot less by throwing only four interceptions. He has thrown for 2,660 yards, a middling number, but he has rushed for 714 yards, tops among quarterbacks.

Not only does his running total top his position, that is also more yards than some running backs who took a significant draft pick, including Michael Turner, Ryan Mathews and Darren McFadden. Yes, I realize there have been some injury issues among those backs, but I still think it makes a significant point.

Griffin has also used his legs to reach the end zone six times, a bonus that only Cam Newton can match at the position.

Newton serves as a bit of a warning since this season has seen him fall from looking like a player who would break the position’s mold. He has taken only one step back, though, as those rushing TDs cover up a lot of passing hurt. Griffin is probably also destined to fall some next year when defenses have time to fully adjust to the Redskins’ unorthodox offense. But that only means Griffin goes from being a potential top pick among QBs to being a good pick once the Mannings, Bradys and Rodgers of the world have been called.

As is the norm for the rookie discussion this year, only now do I move beyond the quarterback position. This is only because there are so many QBs to speak of, and not because there is no value elsewhere, though.

Martin has already put himself among the top-level running back discussion. Houston’s Arian Foster continues to hit the end zone enough (13 rushing TDs) that he is still a clear No. 1, but Martin is tied for second at nine. His 1,106 rushing yards are tied for third in the league. The QBs may be getting the most attention, but this is another star in the making.

Hidden in those numbers is the fact that Martin’s 1,106 yards are tied with another rookie, Washington’s Alfred Morris. Morris just has the misfortune of actually playing in Griffin’s shadow if the sun is in the right place.

Morris got two TDs in Week 1, and has only gotten four since, which decreases his value. He is still someone who deserves more attention than he has received, though, in this year where rookies have altered the landscape.

With all the attention that this year’s rookie quarterbacks are getting, it should be instructive to look at their actual passing numbers: