Monday, July 25, 2011

Political orientation of young evangelicals remains stable

Some strategists argue that Republicans need to become more moderate since young people, even young evangelical conservatives, are more liberal than previous generations. The number of young people who voted for Obama is frequently hyped.

I generated the above graph which is of born-agains ages 18-29 (sample size = 4,446). The political orientation of this demographic has remained stable across four decades. As you move left to right, you can see small changes, but they are probably just noise.

Maybe young evangelicals are all a form of fiscal liberalism/social conservatism. They voted for Obama because they saw a socialist they could love (about 85-90% don't identy themselves as liberals, slightly liberals or extreme liberals so I'm guessing they're no fan of theological liberals and social liberals as well). They're neutral on foreign policy (have many opinions) but are constanly culturally conservative. Did I get it right?

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"The creation myth was the essential bond that held the tribe together. It provided its believers with a unique identity, commanded their fidelity, strengthened order, vouchsafed law, encouraged valor and sacrifice, and offered meaning to the cycles of life and death. No tribe could survive long without the meaning of its existence defined by a creation story. The option was to weaken, dissolve, and die." ~ E.O. Wilson