Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Iraq has witnessed a dramatic drop in car bombs in recent
weeks. There was a two year low in the number of vehicle borne improvised
explosive devices (VBIEDs) successfully detonated in December. One major reason
is that the Islamic State (IS) has been using VBIEDs more and more as part of
tactical assaults upon pro-government forces. Many of these case are either not
reported or the bombs are destroyed before reaching their target. January 2015 provide
a perfect example in this shift in the use of car bombs in Iraq.

More than half of the successful car bombs in January 2015
were used as part of attacks upon the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and their
allies. From January 1 to 27 there were 36 VBIEDs detonated. Of those 24 were
used against the army, police, militias, and tribes aligned with Baghdad. On January
22 for example a suicide car bomber attacked the Taji military base in
southern Salahaddin as soldiers were leaving for weekend leave. The explosion
killed 14 including 8 soldiers and wounded 21 others. That same day a suicide
VBIED was used
against a checkpoint in Horan, Anbar killing one soldier and wounding three. Two
days earlier Anbar experienced ten VBIEDs. In Nikhaib
an army camp was hit followed by a charge at the base. Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha’s
compound was also attacked in a similar manner along with the Howaz district in
Ramadi, which faced seven
car bombs, mortar fire and an attempt to seize the area by the Islamic
State that was repulsed. Similarly on January 16
a suicide car bomber targeted a militia camp outside of Samarra, Salahaddin
that killed 22 people. These types of attacks have two main goals. One is to
break defenses of hard targets such as the Taji army base and Sheikh Abu Risha’s
home. Others are meant to undermine general security in an area such as
attacking checkpoints, and may be to soften an area before a larger attack is
planned.

Car Bombs Iraq Jan 1-27, 2015

Date

Location

Target

Dead

Wounded

Jan 1

Anbar

N/A

Jan 4

Baghdad

Hotel

Salahaddin

N/A

5

Jan 5

Anbar

Checkpoint

4 Soldiers

7 Soldiers

Jan 7

Ninewa x2

Checkpoint

4

3

Jan 8

Babil

N/A

7

21

Ninewa

N/A

8

2

Salahaddin x5

Checkpoint

Jan 9

Ninewa

Peshmerga

Ninewa

Peshmerga

Jan 11

Salahaddin

Army Base

Baiji refinery

1 ISF

3 ISF

Jan 15

Diyala

Café

1

15

Anbar

Checkpoint

2 ISF

6 ISF

Jan 16

Anbar

N/A

1 Militiaman

1 Militiaman

Salahaddin

Militia base

22, 2 Militiamen

Jan 19

Anbar

N/A

2 Police, 3 Soldiers

Babil

N/A

3

10

Jan 20

Anbar

Army Base

3 Police & Sahwa

18 Police & Sahwa

Anbar

N/A/

2 Sahwa

13 Sahwa

Anbar

Abu Risha compound

Anbar x7

ISF

4

Jan 22

Salahddin

Army base

8 Soldiers

6 Militiamen

21 Soldiers

Anbar

Checkpoint

1 Soldier

3 Soldiers

Jan 24

Diyala

N/A

1

4

The Islamic State’s predecessor Tawhid wal Jihad led by Abu
Musab al-Zarqawi introduced the car bomb to Iraq’s insurgency after the 2003
invasion. Originally it was simply a terror weapon aimed at causing civilian
casualties and stoking sectarian tensions. Since then, IS has increasingly
shifted to using VBIEDs to achieve military goals. Now roughly one third to one
half of these types of attacks each month are for tactical purposes. Many of
these bombings are not reported, while many more are destroyed on the way to
their targets. This partially explains why the total number of car bombs has
dropped since December. IS can be expected to continue to shift more of its
resources to these types of operations as they are trying to win back lost
territory and regain the initiative.

SOURCES

AIN,
"5 IPs injured southern Tikrit," 1/4/15

-
"7 Peshmerga elements killed, injured western Mosul," 1/7/15

Alsumaria,
"Killing one and wounding four others by a car bomb east of Baquba,"
1/24/15

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Since the Islamic State’s (IS) startling charge across
northern and central Iraq in the middle of 2014 the group has faced a steady
loss of manpower. That has come from fighting against pro-government forces and
increasingly from Coalition air strikes. Not only has it lost many rank and
file fighters, but also some of its top commanders and officials. This steady
loss is depriving the organization of its leadership, and could be isolating
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Every week brings new news of a top IS member being killed
in Iraq. Those include several field commanders and senior IS members. On January 22 for
example, the police director in Anbar’s Haditha said that a Coalition air
strike had killed IS’s Wali or governor for Anbar, Abu Anas Samarraie. He was responsible
for the mass executions of hundreds of members of the Albu Nimr tribe that
started in October. Two days later the Kurdistan Security Council named
twenty-three IS leaders that had recently been killed in fighting with the
peshmerga in Ninewa. More importantly there are increasing reports of senior officials
within IS being eliminated. Those include Abu
Muslim al-Turkmani. He was a member of the Shura
Council the highest body within the Islamic State, the head of the provincial
council with responsibilities for running operations in Iraq, and was said to
be one of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s top two deputies. He was from Tal Afar in
Ninewa, and a former Special Forces and intelligence officer under the Baathist
regime with connections with Saddam Hussein and Izzat al-Duri. Another was Abu
Ali al-Anbari who was from the Mosul area. He was Baghdadi’s other top deputy
along with Turkmani. He was in charge of Syria, and a member of IS’s security
council. Abu Muhanad al-Suedawi and Abu Ahmed Alwani who were believed to be
heads of the Military Council, and Turki al-Benali a member of the Sharia
Council have also been killed. The latter enforces and administers religious
law, and runs the police and courts. Baghdadi has reportedly increasingly
delineated power to his field commanders to govern the territory that it has
conquered. This has not only occurred because IS needs to administer large
tracks of land, but also because Baghdadi’s ability to communicate with his
minions has become limited due to his need to constantly be on the move to
avoid detection. The elimination of these cadre then deprives IS of not only its
ability to carry out military operations but govern, which is an essential
element of Baghdadi’s wish to create a state.

The Islamic State’s manpower is being degraded every day.
Many of the common fighters can always be replaced, but the loss of its top
leadership takes a far heavier toll upon the organization. The death of
Baghdadi’s two top lieutenants for example, deprives the organization of not
only valued aides, but years of experience as well. It further isolates
Baghdadi, and makes his job of running IS and all the land that it now controls
that much harder. It is also a necessary step in the eventual elimination of
the group.

Monday, January 26, 2015

Iraq’s insurgents continued to carry out a high level of
activity in the third week of January 2015. Security incidents went down from
August to December, but have picked up since then. On the other hand,
pro-government forces were on the offensive in Diyala, Ninewa and Salahaddin
for the week. In the second half of 2014 the security forces, militias and
peshmerga regained the initiative and began retaking lost territory, while the
insurgency cooled off as it usually does at the end of the year. Now Iraq may
be witnessing both forces simultaneously launching attacks throughout the
center of the country.

From January 15-21, 2015 there were a reported 181 security
incidents. That was up from January 8-14 when there were 172, but on par with
the first week of the month, which had 184 incidents. That averaged out to 25.5
attacks per day. In comparison, in December there were 21.8, 19.7 in November,
and 23.9 in October. Baghdad saw the most violence with 44 attacks, followed by
41in Anbar, 40 in Salahaddin, 23 in Ninewa, 11 in Diyala and Kirkuk each, six
in Babil, three in Basra, and two in Maysan. If this trend continues early 2015
could see the same level of attacks as during the height of the summer
offensive.

This violence led to 390 people losing their lives and
another 515 wounded. Those were at the same levels as the previous two weeks,
and higher than December. So far there has been an average of 74.0 deaths per
day in the new year. In the previous month there were 57.2. January 15-21 saw
88 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 15 Sahwa, 27 peshmerga, and 260
civilians die, along with 38 ISF, 41 Sahwa, one peshmerga, and 435 civilians
wounded. Broken down by province Ninewa had the most deaths with 105, then
Salahaddin with 87, Baghdad with 67, Diyala with 64, Anbar with 49, Babil with
11, five in Kirkuk, and one each in Basra and Maysan.

Violence In Iraq By Week Jun.
2014-Jan. 2015

Date

Incidents

Dead

Wounded

Jun 1-7

228

612

1,020

Jun 8-14

234

1,889

890

Jun 15-21

179

803

759

Jun 22-28

203

733

777

Jun 29-30

59

127

236

JUN

901

4,172

3,701

Jul 1-7

203

526

651

Jul 8-14

214

577

628

Jul 15-21

230

444

1,009

Jul 22-28

224

589

801

Jul 29-31

66

163

230

JUL

937

2,299

3,319

Aug 1-8

269

1,122

885

Aug 9-14

179

710

1,152

Aug 15-21

150

354

499

Aug 22-28

156

523

798

Aug 29-31

59

125

289

AUG

813

2,834

3,623

Sep 1-7

168

616

751

Sep 8-14

156

433

722

Sep 15-21

166

620

749

Sep 22-28

153

395

573

Sep 29-30

47

112

252

SEP

690

2,176

3,047

Oct 1-7

170

451

687

Oct 8-14

188

532

875

Oct 15-21

156

449

770

Oct 22-28

159

345

592 +
1,230

Oct 29-31

68

570

227

OCT

741

2,347

3,151 + 1,230

Nov 1-7

153

601

828

Nov 8-14

128

420

593

Nov 15-21

134

283

464

Nov 22-28

138

321

640

Nov 29-30

40

206

510

NOV

593

1,831

3,035

Dec 1-7

137

323

476

Dec 8-14

156

233 + 166

444 +
1,113

Dec 15-21

133

377

340

Dec 22-28

161

558

432

Dec 29-31

91

117

233

DEC

678

1,774

3,038

Jan 1-7

184

434

464

Jan 8-14

172

731

493

Jan 15-21

181

390

515

Violence In Iraq By Province, Jan.
2015

Province

Jan 1-7

Jan 8-14

Anbar

43
Incidents

129
Killed: 23 ISF, 30 Sahwa, 76 Civilians

146
Wounded: 45 ISF, 101 Civilians

30
Shootings

1 IED

2 Suicide
Bombers

2 Suicide
Car Bombs

3 Mortars

3 Rockets

28
Incidents

58
Killed: 8 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 49 Civilians

106
Wounded: 1 Sahwa, 105 Civilians

19
Shootings

1 IED

1 Mortar

1 Rocket

Babil

6
Incidents

13
Killed: 2 ISF, 11 Civilians

44
Wounded: 4 ISF, 40 Civilians

2
Shootings

4 IEDs

1 Sticky
Bomb

5
Incidents

10
Killed: 5 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 4 Civilians

31
Wounded: 31 Civilians

1
Shooting

1 IED

1 Suicide
Car Bomb

Baghdad

40
Incidents

58
Killed: 6 ISF, 52 Civilians

147
Wounded: 1 ISF, 146 Civilians

12
Shootings

31 IEDs

5 Sticky
Bombs

1 Car
Bomb

43
Incidents

60
Killed: 4 ISF, 4 Sahwa, 52 Civilians

167
Wounded: 8 ISF, 8 Sahwa, 151 Civilians

17
Shootings

19 IEDs

3 Sticky
Bombs

1 Suicide
Bomber

1 Mortar

Basra

3
Incidents

4 Killed:
4 Civilians

1
Wounded: 1 Civilian

1
Shooting

1 IED

-

Diyala

11
Incidents

13
Killed: 2 ISF, 11 Civilians

23 Wounded:
1 ISF, 22 Civilians

8
Shootings

3 Mortars

9
Incidents

25
Killed: 25 Civilians

17
Wounded: 17 Civilians

5
Shootings

3 IEDs

2 Mortars

Kirkuk

6
Incidents

1 Mortar

17
Incidents

4 Killed:
2 Peshmerga, 1 Asayesh, 1 Sahwa

15
Wounded: 11 Peshmerga, 3 Asayesh, 1 Civilian

11
Shootings

10 IEDs

Maysan

1
Incident

1 Killed:
1 Civilian

1
Wounded: 1 Civilian

1
Shooting

-

Ninewa

30
Incidents

119
Killed: 16 ISF, 4 Peshmerga, 99 Civilians

3
Wounded: 3 Peshmerga

20
Shootings

7 IEDs

2 Suicide
Car Bombs

33 Incidents

392
Killed: 2 ISF, 12 Peshmerga, 26 Asayesh,

8 YPG, 344 Civilians

7
Wounded: 5 Asayesh, 2 YPG

30
Shootings

1 Suicide
Car Bomb

Qadisiyah

1
Incident

1 Sticky
Bomb

-

Salahaddin

43
Incidents

97
Killed: 23 ISF, 74 Civilians

99
Wounded: 84 ISF, 15 Civilians

17
Shootings

9 IEDs

3 Sticky
Bombs

1 Suicide
Car Bomb

1 Mortar

34
Incidents

181
Killed: 44 ISF, 137 Civilians

150
Wounded: 15 ISF, 135 Civilians

12
Shootings

23 IEDs

3 Suicide
Bombers

6 Suicide
Car Bombs

1 Car
Bomb

4 Mortars

Province

Jan 15-21

Anbar

41
Incidents

49
Killed: 2 ISF, 14 Sahwa, 33 Civilians

198
Wounded: 7 ISF, 38 Sahwa, 153 Civilians

25
Shootings

2 IEDs

12
Suicide Car Bombs

6 Mortars

Babil

6
Incidents

11
Killed: 1 ISF, 10 Civilians

35
Wounded: 3 ISF, 32 Civilians

1
Shooting

3 IEDs

1 Sticky
Bomb

1 Car
Bomb

Baghdad

44
Incidents

67
Killed: 4 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 62 Civilians

197
Wounded: 9 ISF, 3 Sahwa, 185 Civilians

11
Shootings

24 IEDs

4 Sticky
Bombs

1
Motorcycle Bomb

3 Mortars

Basra

3
Incidents

1 Killed:
1 Civilian

Diyala

11 Incidents

64
Killed: 2 ISF, 11 Peshmerga, 51 Civilians

16
Wounded: 16 Civilians

6
Shootings

4 IEDs

1 Suicide
Car Bombs

Kirkuk

11
Incidents

5 Killed:
5 Civilians

2
Shootings

1 Sticky
Bomb

Maysan

2
Incidents

1 Killed:
1 Civilian

1
Shooting

1 Stun
Bomb

Ninewa

23
Incidents

105
Killed: 60 ISF, 16 Peshmerga, 29 Civilians

1
Wounded: 1 Peshmerga

15
Shootings

18 IEDs

Salahaddin

40
Incidents

87
Killed: 19 ISF, 68 Civilians

68
Wounded: 19 ISF, 49 Civilians

19
Shootings

23 IEDs

2 Suicide
Car Bombs

2
Grenades

1 Mortar

Car Bombs In Iraq Jan. 2015

Date

Location

Dead

Wounded

Jan 1

Habaniya, Anbar

Jan 2

Jan 3

Jan 4

Sadoun St, Baghdad

Outside Samarra, Salahaddin

5

Jan 5

Anaz, Anbar

4

7

Jan 6

Jan 7

Ayathiya x2, Ninewa

4

3

Totals

6

8

15

Jan 8

Yusifiya Babil

Berhewa, Ninewa

Samarra x5, Salahaddin

47

45

Jan 9

Mount Sinjar x2

Jan 10

Jan 11

Baiji Refinery & West of
Samarra, Salahaddin

1

3

Jan 12

Jan 13

Jan 14

Totals

11

48

48

Jan 15

Baquba, Diyala

Tarmiya, Salahaddin

3

21

Jan 16

Rahaliya, Anbar

Hweish, Salahaddin

23

1

Jan 17

Jan 18

Jan 19

Ramadi, Anbar

Mahmudiya, Babil

3

15

Jan 20

Abu Risha, Albu Ghanim, Nikhaib,
Ramadi x7, Anbar

5

35

Jan 21

Totals

16

34

72

After a slight lull the number of vehicle borne improvised
explosive devices (VBIEDs) went up during the week. There were 16 successful
attacks across Anbar, Babil, Diyala and Salahaddin. That left 34 people dead
and 72 wounded. Almost all of these car bombs were used in tactical attacks
upon the security forces and militias, often in conjunction with infantry
assaults. Many more VBIEDs have been used, but were destroyed before reaching
their targets.

Anbar continued to be threatened by insurgents who control
the majority of the province. During the week militants were active throughout
the breadth of the governorate attacking Ramadi six out of seven days, Garma to
the northeast of Fallujah four times, Baghdadi to the northwest of Hit three
times, Amiriya Fallujah to the east by the Babil border and Haditha in the west
two times each, the Walid border point, and several other towns. January 20 saw
the heaviest fighting with a suicide car bomb followed by an infantry assault
on Nikhaib,
a suicide truck bomb in Albu Ghanim,
an attack upon Abu Risha
with a suicide car bomb, followed by an attack on the town that got into Sheikh
Abu Risha’s compound and was able to destroy some of his buildings, and then an
attack upon Ramadi’s
Howaz district with seven suicide car bombs, mortar fire, and another infantry
charge. Despite all the activity IS has made no real headway in Anbar since October.
It is still intent upon trying to take the remaining major cities, but has
failed to make much progress so far.

Government forces are still trying to clear the small towns
on the outskirts of IS controlled cities in the province. Many of these places
have changed hands over and over again for the last year. For example on January 15
a security operation was launched in Albu Hayat. Two days later the village was
said to be freed,
but then on January
21 another sweep was started there. Unfortunately this has been the pattern
for the last year. Every major offensive launched by the ISF and tribes has
stalled with no real progress being made.

The Iraqi army has continued with their indiscriminate
shelling of Fallujah. The city was hit six out of seven days. That killed 22
people and wounded 81, which were roughly 40% of the total casualties for the
governorate. This artillery and mortar fire has no real effect upon the security
situation in the city, yet the ISF has been carrying it out since the city fell
taking a huge civilian toll.

Casualties Government Shelling In
Anbar Jan. 2015

Date

Location

Dead

Wounded

Jan 2

Fallujah

20

30

Jan 3

Fallujah

3

9

Jan 5

Fallujah

4

16

Jan 6

Fallujah

4

11

Total

-

31

66

Jan 9

Fallujah

3

9

Jan 10

Fallujah

3

14

Jan 11

Fallujah

3

7

Jan 12

Fallujah

11

20

Jan 13

Fallujah

13

18

Jan 14

Fallujah

13

17

Total

-

46

85

Jan 15

Fallujah

4

7

Jan 16

Fallujah

3

6

Jan 17

Fallujah

4

17

Jan 18

Fallujah

2

25

Jan 19

Fallujah

6

19

Jan 20

Fallujah

3

7

Total

Fallujah

22

81

In previous weeks the Islamic State was threatening
Muqtadiya in central Diyala. This caused a major displacement from the area.
From January 15-21 there were only two attacks there however. On January
21, the ISF finally launched a much expected operation there. IS still has
many bases in Diyala’s east, and is now attempting to move into the center of
the province for the first time in several months. It’s yet to be seen whether
it will have any success or whether the government forces will be able to push
them back.

In January both the IS and peshmerga have been carrying out
operations in Ninewa. The insurgents attacked Sinjar four times, Mosul Dam,
Bartella, Bashiqa, and the Tal Afar area from January 15-21. The Islamic State
has also continued with its executions and intimidation tactics in the territory
it controls. On January
15 four members of the Jabour tribe were killed in Qayara, and six houses
belonging to judges were blown
up in Tal Afar. The next day five women were executed
in Mosul, and then thirteen young men were hung
for watching a soccer game in the city. Then on January 17
eleven homes of police were detonated in Qayara, and 60 members of the ISF were
shot in the Mosul area on January
20. The peshmerga have been slowly been taking back territory in Ninewa. On
January
21 they freed several villages in the west and are threatening to cut IS’s
supply lines to Syria. After the shock of losing Sinjar the Kurds have gone on
the offensive and taken back several small and large towns in the province. IS appears
to be ramping up its own operations now in an attempt to gain some of this
territory back.

A similar situation is playing out in Salahaddin. Despite recent
gains by pro-government forces IS is still able to attack throughout most of
the governorate. On January
15 it attacked a checkpoint in Tarmiya in the south by Baghdad with a
suicide car bomb. January
16 it hit a militia base in Hweish with another VBIED and the Baiji refinery. January 18
it attacked Yathrib in the southern Balad district, and Dujail in the north on January
21. The ISF and militias are still trying to consolidate their recent gains
in Balad. On January
15 for instance, it cleared Nibai for the second time. They also launched
new security operations
during the week in Sayid Gharaib, Albu Nisan and Sur Nash. The situation in
Salahaddin is much like Ninewa. IS still controls large swaths of the province,
but has been losing areas and is now trying to gain back some of the momentum.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, "The killing five members of Daash in armed
clashes south of Tikrit," 1/21/15

- "The outcome of the bombing in central Baquba a boy
killed and 13 wounded," 1/15/15

IRAQ HISTORY TIMELINE

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com