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I think we can all work off the assumption that only one person is leaving via the Hill this week...it now appears almost certain that Thomson is going to be removed for health reasons.

So, where does the vote go??

This is unlike the other votes cause this one gives the recruits a free pass from the Takedown rule...that means that the smart money is to get rid of someone who YOU believe would take you with them, given the chance.

So, does Wolf band together a few of his friends and toss Meyer? Or does Meyer get the women to do the same thing to Wolf? But, one thing I remember is that the women were worried last episode that a woman voted off would takedown a woman with her, so would the women then want to vote off another woman this week instead of ganging up on Wolf?

Something to consider: The Surivor angle. The producer is a Surivor I alumnus and so far appears to be influenced by Burn-it's editing and storytelling techniques. We all know from Survivor that the person getting voted off this week ALWAYS had plenty of screen time the week before. So far that is true for BC as Harr was featured in Episode #1 and then was dismissed in E#2.

At this point we have a better handle on the men than the women as far as group dynamics. But, we do know that 5 of the women have voted together on BOTH votes.

We know that Baloon-Animal-Boy is NOT alligned with anyone as both of his votes have gone to single vote getters.

We know that Jackson, Morettiii and Wolf are alligned. It looks like Lauder might be with them. Meyer has also alligned with them for this latest vote, although Meyer MIGHT be alligned with some of the women as well.

So, basically it looks like we have two power factions, one in each gender group.

Strategically wise, it would probably be a good idea to get rid of someone from the rival alliance this vote since there will be no revenge. But, if the men target one of the women and vice-versa that would put Meyer in a difficult position since he makes promises to both groups.

With 6 guys (assuming Thomson is gone by the vote) and 5 girls, the men have a distinct advantage here, but only if Meyer and BAB can be brought into the fold.

These are just some opening thoughts to get the discussion going...at this point I have no idea who might get the vote, but my guess is teh women will have an easier time staying together than the men.

I think Meyer will use his CONSIDERABLE manipulation abilities to persuade the women to vote against Wolf. He will remind them how superior Wolf acts.. and how bossy he is.. and he will throw a tear or two in for effect. If past episodes are any indication, they shall fall for it, and Wolf bites it! LMAO! Gotta admit, Shakes.. I hope Meyer stays....*looking around room* Who said that??!? (w.l.s.f.c)----------------------------------------"I'm gonna take a bath so the whole tent doesn't smell like ass at the end of the night" - The late, and often absent, Nick Brown

"There's a sucker born every minute at Transylvania Maternity Hospital."

Personally... I think Meyer makes the whole show 'smell like ass'... but there has always got to be a 'villain of the piece'. Meyer is being set up as that villian - a villian who has established a wider base of support in the platoon than the minor villian, Wolf.

Wolf will go next... based upon face time and his inability to cross the gender-gap like Meyer has.

I'm thinking along a different tack that most of y'all. While it's true that a medical discharge of Thomson would mean that the dismissed recruit (a'la Park) would not get to exact revenge, I had some thoughts about last week's episode, to wit:

1) Park was the only person gone who could not be considered a physical weak link. His leaving was partly orchestrated by Meyer, but I think he must have REALLY offended some people and we might not have seen the entire story with the editing.

2) Wolf was featured a little bit as being concerned about being voted off. But he didn't seem to be making any particular waves, his squad leader time is over (can't get a future immunity, they can wax him at leisure), and he's actually a strong keeper for the challenges (a'la keeping the strong people in Survivor).

3) Except for Park, the people gone were weak links. Katherine was a QUIT. She was a dirty nasty leg who couldn't hack ten minutes of being screamed at. Haar had heart, but was physically in no condition to continue Boot Camp. I find it important that some 12 of the 14 votes were for Haar, indicating a strong desire by all to exorcise the weak from the squad. Haar saved everyone the trouble of voting out Pupo next. She was a weak link, and more mentally than physically.

So, I think Thomson will indeed be out on medical discharge, but I think the squad will continue to eliminate weak links while they all can agree. That means Lauder comes into the picture. I think it will be Lauder for these reasons:

a) Lauder got lots of face time last week. Face time showing him struggling, lagging, and hurting. Face time showing him talking about realizing he's not tough and is about to be humbled.b) Lauder is physically the weakest link left and Darwinian politics are going to supercede social politics for at least this vote.

After Lauder, I will venture the following as the next possible candidates, assuming no one else gets injured.

Recruit Yaney (Nasty Leg Balloon Boy) - does not enjoy the respect of his peers.Recruit Brown (Gay Girl) - I believe she made a mistake venturing this we-didn't-really-need-to-know-that information.

Edited to remove some speculation that made absolutely no sense after I realized that a dismisee can wax another squad member.

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

"I've never been bored a day in my life. Only boring people get bored." -- Jerri Manthey

>2) Wolf was featured a little >bit as being concerned about >being voted off. But >he didn't seem to be >making any particular waves, his >squad leader time is over >(can't get a future immunity, >they can wax him at >leisure), and he's actually a >strong keeper for the challenges >(a'la keeping the strong people >in Survivor).

...I agree, I think the departure of Park sent a message to Wolf, Jackson and Morettiii that they should probably cool it down a little bit....but, we'll see what happens this week when one of their own (Moretti) is the SL. Let's not forget that when Wolf was SL, the other 3 (Moretti, jackson, Park) acted like THEY were also in charge, and that is what pissed off the girls.

I wonder if any of them are dumb enough to pull that again. Either way, it's probably a factor that has to be considered as a possibility, which puts this group in the danger zone for this next episode.

I think the squad >will continue to eliminate weak >links while they all can >agree. That means Lauder >comes into the picture. >I think it will be >Lauder for these reasons: >>a) Lauder got lots of face >time last week. Face >time showing him struggling, lagging, >and hurting.

....true, he was struggling, hurting and lagging (but only in the punishment, not in the challenge), but at least he was TRYING. For us Survivor fans on the board, this is similar to the plight of Rodger in the early goings of the game...he cost them a challenge early on, but Kucha was so impressed with his effort that his failures actually HELPED his standing in the tribe.

I think Lauder is similar....while younger recruits such as Harr, Pupo and Thomson are dropping like flies, Lauder is giving it his 100% and FINISHING all that is required of him....I don't think his efforts will go un-noticed.

Besides, I think your "get rid of the weak link" theory loses some steam IF they successfully complete their challenge this week....with a successful challenge, the recruits may believe that they have already gotten rid of all the weak links and can now start thinking of strategy.

Face time >showing him talking about realizing >he's not tough and is >about to be humbled.

...that COULD be foreshadowing to his departure, or it could simply be taliing about the humbling physical nature of Boot Camp, which has already been shown to an exent regarding Lauder.

>b) Lauder is physically the weakest >link left and Darwinian politics >are going to supercede social >politics for at least this >vote.

...I agree that of the MALES, he is definitely the weakest link, and that alone makes him a STRONG candidate for dismissal...but, that is only if the tribe goes the Darwinian route this week.

>>After Lauder, I will venture the >following as the next possible >candidates, assuming no one else >gets injured. >>Recruit Yaney (Nasty Leg Balloon Boy) >- does not enjoy the >respect of his peers.

.....I disagree, I think he is the safest person in the game right now....all of the girls love him, you could tell that by the way they were laughing at his antics in E#2....there is no way those girls are gonna vote for him...plus, he is NOT alligned with the voting block of men, so that is another reason he would NOT be a target of the women.

We have seen nothing to suggest that the men do not respect Yaney either, we simply haven't seen that.

At this point he is a wild card in this game...which in itself might scare some people and make them want to pull the trigger on him...plus, because the girls like him so much, he looks like a tough person to beat in the final two (6 person jury in addition to Gauntlet), so that might make him a dismissal candidate, but I think its too eraly in the game to be thinking of that...and the guys are voting along gender lines at this point anyway.

>Recruit Brown (Gay Girl) - I >believe she made a mistake >venturing this we-didn't-really-need-to-know-that information.

...I agree that her admission was awkward and in my non-homophobic opinion, completely unnecessary. BUT, it might be one thing that actrually works in her favor. In survivor I, there were some suggestions that the cast was reluctant to vote of Gervase early on because they didn't want to be percieved as targeting the black guy. Could the same logic apply here??? A vote for Brown at this point in the game with no actual basis for it will basically label the vote caster as a homophobe anti-gay on NATIONAL TV...and don't think these media-whores don't think about stuff like that.

Deputy Dawg, not trying to punch holes in your theory, it's jsut that with so little action on the spec. aspect of this board I figured anything we can do to get some debates and discussion going can only help. For all I know, I might end up picking Lauder when its all said and done...just trying to explore every possible option.

For what I have seen of the show, there is much less personal interaction in this series...most of their time is taken up with the work. Sure, it has shown a few scenes of these contestants talking with eachother, but these are few and far between. Thus, they do not really get to know one another as well as on Survivor.

This is more than enough explanation for Lauder to be leaving. With less known about their personalities, the focus is primarily on their physical shape, and ability to get the job done. Meyer and Wolf are exceptions, yes...but all else are not even that well known yet. Most sit in the background...think of Coddington, Moretti, Yanney. They have not asserted themselves, and thus, remain around based only on their physical prowess.

Lauder is shown hurting last episode, and is arguably the weakest individual left here. If he continues to be ailing in this episode, I can see him being elected out of the game.

However, if Thomson is removed ahead of time, that may change the dynamic. Meyer will be able to remove Wolf without Wolf being able to retaliate. If Thomson is removed early, watch Meyer to be heavily petitioning for his removal.

On a second note, I also believe that Balloon Animal Boy is treading on thin ice here. When all the women were laughing...were they laughing at, or with him? I took it that they were laughing at him. He did not set out to make them laugh. His votes have shown him to not really be aligned with anyone. He is a loner, and, if they were laughing at him, he may even be the 'runt' of the litter. If so, watch him to make an exit soon.

Oh, I don't mind having holes punched in my theories. But please, DO reduces the spaces between your paragraphs, it looks sooooo loooonnnnngggg with all that space in there.

Just a couple of points:While there has been plenty of personal interaction, most of them are still talking about what they SEE -- which is what the others are doing physically. The show is probably scripted, in order to get people to talk about something besides the grueling drill, but I think that the sheer number of votes for Haar (I was wrong earlier, it was 11 out of 14 (not 12 as I said), my apologies) shows that anyone who might become a squad leader is thinking of getting rid of the deadwood.

As to Recruit Brown: Do not take my comments on her or the issues of homosexuality to be reflective of any personal opinion of mine. I am merely pointing out for the purposes of discussion some observations about that issue. When she made that grand announcement (and for all we know, she might not really be gay but was well paid by Fox to say that in order to introduce the dynamic into the show), the rest of them quieted down in a hurry. In the future, if there is going to be a compromise on a recruit to be dismissed, Recruit Brown has set herself up as a target. In the future, she might be voted squad leader, then enough people "lay down" to ensure she fails, and then she could be dismissed. I have a feeling that Fox is going to play the dynamic further, and we might have an Alicia/Kimmi finger waving party before too long... but that's just a guess.

Last, I must disagree about Yaney. I think he was being laughed *AT*, not with. The distinct impression I got from the women was an impression of disrespect. The fact that he has no alliances tells me that he's vulnerable. Again, I would suggest to Meyer that he (Meyer) bring Yaney into his alliance, as the extra vote would do Meyer some good. Yaney might then survive for some time.

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

>As to Recruit Brown: Do >not take my comments on >her or the issues of >homosexuality to be reflective of >any personal opinion of mine.

...I wasn't at all...I hope it didnt' come off that way....I was implying that the recruits themselves would be concerned with coming off as homophobic is they voted her off on the heels of her "big" announcement.

>Last, I must disagree about Yaney. > I think he was >being laughed *AT*, not with. > The distinct impression I >got from the women was >an impression of disrespect. >

....NO WAY! Tonight's episode only reaffirmed what I have been saying for a while....Yaney is the most well liked recruit there.....the guys find him amusing and non-threatening and the girls absolutely love him...he lightens the mood and he works hard, plus he votes with his HEART, not as a member of the all-guy's alliance.

And that sh!t he did with the baloons was quite impressive and made him the center of attention during the ONE time when you WANT to be the center of attention.....when everyone is having fun and relaxing.....it is just like a form of coniditioning in that they will associate Yaney with being relaxed, laughing and having a good time.

Besides, my hole philosophy in life has always been, "Whether they're laughing with me or at me, the point is they're laughing...and that's all that matters." I think this applies to Yaney as well.

He ain't going anywhere for awhile, at least as long as the girls hold a voting majority (5-4-1) and there are still guys to get rid of.

Sorry, but I did not see any "reaffirmation" of what you're saying. Being the class clown (if you'll excuse the expression) in the rec room is not going to translate to respect in Boot Camp. I do believe that he is vulnerable and will go soon.

Just let him cost the squad a mission when one of the women is a squad leader. It will be so over for him so fast that his head will twist around like one of his balloons!

I do admit that he is good with the balloons.

As you (shakes) said on another thread (I think it was you, anyway), it looks like Yaney is going to be SL next week and is going to screw up.

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

"I've never been bored a day in my life. Only boring people get bored." -- Jerri Manthey

If Yaney screws up a mission, it will be because of incompetence, not clowning around. Sure he makes balloon animals (what a strange dude), but when it comes to the game, he's serious. The DI called him the Gomer Pyle of the group - big heart, takes it seriously, respects the game, but a total flake. Because he is a screw-up, he doesn't appear to be a threat for the final competition. He'll probably stick around awhile while the powerful players fight it out.

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