Perfect storm

Real estate sales sliding, listings down, mortgages swelling and FOMO gone. Man, it’s a tough time to own a Royal LePage or Re/Max franchise. Sure, all those agents have to rent their desks monthly but that just keeps the lights on. To make any money, you gotta have sales. And to do that you need market share. For that, you promote.

Days ago the flak team at LePage released “Peak Millennial Affordability media launch,” designed to get MSM coverage. It worked. “A big thank you to all of our spokespeople from across the country for their contributions in providing regional perspectives,” said Sarah Louis Gardner in an internal email from head office. “So far today we have achieved great media coverage.”

Indeed. In just a few hours, stories in 51 newspapers, on 16 radio stations and four national broadcasters. The appetite for real estate news is now insatiable, with most outlets running the release word-for-word (after all, reporters are expensive and they dress badly) – even when the story is negative.

So here’s the news: B20 is Hoovering the kids. The purchasing power for the average peak millennial “dropped by approximately 16.5%, or $40,103, after the introduction of the OSFI stress test.” Just to make the point (and help sales in New Brunswick), LePage pointed out kids can buy a whole house (no mortgage) in Moncton for the same 20% down payment required in the GTA or Van. Yeah, I know. But it’s Moncton.

As mentioned, it’s Moister Week here at GreaterFool. This isn’t to give the Millennials more attention so they feel special (mom already did that), but to underscore a basic tenet of real estate: without entry-level buyers the market croaks. So when a real estate flogging machine like Royal LePage uses this message to get noticed, it’s time to fret a little.

The perfect storm brews. Moisters are at its centre. Everyone will be impacted as he event blows through. Consider the facts:

Mortgage rates went up last week, and will soon be rising again. Not trivial hikes either – almost half a point at TD.

This is happening as bond markets reflect and anticipate central bank increases. The US 10-year Treasury flirting with 3% for the first time in years, and rising 25% in just a few months tells you where the cost of money is headed.

Almost half (47%) of all existing mortgages in Canada come up for renewal this year – almost twice the usual number, thanks to the crappy borrowing decisions and over-buying by people three years ago. Most will be renewing at higher rates and now with B20 in place many cannot shop the market (lest they face a stress test).

The economy, says the Bank of Canada, is 50% more sensitive to rising rates than in the past. That’s because we’ve snorfled our way into $2.1 trillion in debt, over 70% of it in mortgages and HELOCs.

Total debt payments have risen year/year almost 7% for families. Meanwhile the stress test has made cheaper houses (and condos) cost more and pushed greater numbers of borrowers into the arms of subprime outfits like Firm Capital, where mortgages cost 8.5%.

Check out this quote from a Manulife economist in a scary Bloomberg story on the storm: “The economy has never been as levered as it currently is, and the economy is far more interest sensitive than it has been in the past, to a degree that we don’t have certainty over how each interest rate hike is going to affect Canadian consumers. All we know is it’s going to be painful, but how painful isn’t quite clear.”

During a typical spring market in Canada 55% of all real estate buys are done by newbies. These first-time buyers squeeze into the market all leveraged and giggly, allowing former virgins to move up the property ladder using equity and extra debt to buy more house. So removing 16.5% of a peak Millennial’s purchasing power is a big deal. Sellers get less, then have to borrow bigger at increasing rates. Plus, there’s more to come. The odds are currently 93% that the Fed will raise its key rate again in June, with our guys reluctantly following.

Thus, the prediction holds. Correction, then melt. In some areas that’s well underway. In others, it’s coming. In many markets the big trends are being masked by a paucity of listings. When that ends, change comes.

However, it gets worse, kids. The realtors also want to trash your stash.

CREA poohbahs this week begged Parliamentarians to put the brakes on Ottawa’s plans to allow homeowners to have mini grow-ops in their houses. T2 wants to let everyone cultivate up to four marijuana plants, producing a potential 5 kg a year of pot. CREA’s horrified.

“We’ve heard from homeowners and tenants across the country who are worried about living beside grow-ops. What does this do to their home value? Will this increase their rent? How safe will their kids be? Will their quality of life diminish because of the prevalence of drugs in their neighbourhood? These are all concerns that need to be considered before the passing of Bill C-45,” the realtor boss told senators.

Gnarly. But we may have more to worry about.

169 comments ↓

The budget passed last month by New York’s legislature, and signed into law by Governor Cuomo, would create a state-managed 401(k)-type system which would cover every New York worker who does not already have a retirement plan.”..
“The state would piggyback on the expertise developed by the retirement system for New York public employees. This should allow it to offer good investment options at a fraction of the cost of private 401(k)s.

Many private plans charge fees of more than 1.0 percent annually, whereas a state-managed plan is likely to cost less than 0.3 percent of the funds under management. For a middle-class person who has accumulated more than $100,000 over their working lifetime, this difference can easily add up to $1,000 a year, or more. That is money that workers basically had been handing to the financial industry for nothing, but now would add tens of thousands of dollars to many workers’ retirement savings.”

watching sales and prices crash in the GTA makes me happy. Many SHYSTERS are suffering financial hardship and it will only get worse for Year’s. yes you SHYSTERS years of very little sales at smaller commissions. Happy Housing Crash Everyone Everyone! very little selling in GTA and getting worse :-)))

I wonder when listing numbers will start going up. Once people finally realize the longer they wait, the less they will be getting over the next few years, there may be a flood of them. For now, lots of people are hanging on and hoping to get what their neighbor got last year.

ahahahaha.
Sounds like my trip to the NWT a decade or two ago.
Pulled into Ft MacPherson for gas.
The local villagers all watched as I pulled the gas handle out of the pump. …
The whole front of the pump fell off…to gales of laughter.
I went in and asked the 1st nations teenage girl behind the counter for some film….she couldn’t speak english

Forward to 2017. Immediately after the announcement of the Xiong’an New Area, real estate investors flooded into the region. Within days, local housing prices doubled or tripled. As the government hastened to control housing speculation,﻿﻿﻿ Xiong’an’s own sons and daughters who had left the region struggled to return and place their claim on local property. Leading universities, hospitals, non-governmental institutions, and companies competed with each other to sign “collaboration” agreements and land leases with local offices.

Joint Statement of the Fourth Round of the Six-Party Talks
– September 19, 2005

“For the cause of peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in northeast Asia at large, the six parties held in a spirit of mutual respect and equality serious and practical talks concerning the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula on the basis of the common understanding of the previous three rounds of talks and agreed in this context to the following:

The mortgage business is a race to be first. If a homeowner has a first and second mortgage (some have a third mortgage) on a property and they default ( go in arrears more than 3 months) lenders can begin proceedings for a power of sale. Right now homes have been very liquid so if a homeowner defaults they can sell their home and pay back the lender(s) and avoid power of sale.

Going forward as homes become more illiquid home owners won’t be able to sell quick enough to avoid power of sales. Now the race is on, the first lender to begin proceeds can charge the home owners administration fees that can be 10s of thousands. Plus alt lenders often add administrative fees to the original loan so borrowing 100k will cost you 120k plus 8% interest or more depending on your financial situation.

Once the home sells in a power of sale the order of payment is as follows; agent, administrator fees, first mortgage, second mortgage etc etc. So being the lender to begin proceeding is important for alt lenders.

Since the cost of gas has been a topic on here ,I thought putting this article back up for another run wouldn’t be the worst thing I have done since I have been on this blog.

That honour is reserved for the time I foolishly responded to Mark…

M43BC

“Petrol Sweat Index: How Many Hours Do People Have to Work to Buy a Gallon of Petrol?

Oil is the most important commodity in the world. Oil leads to petrol, the vital fuel that runs our economy, including our personal vehicles. Wages and petrol prices across the globe vary significantly, leading to a large difference in the number of hours worked at minimum wage required to afford one gallon of petrol. Below you can see our map of each country by how many minutes or hours at work required to afford one gallon of petrol.

The color legend shows varying degrees of time required at work in order to buy one gallon of petrol, ranging from dark green, indicating the lowest amount of time, to red, indicating the greatest amount of time. The wages used in our calculations assume minimum wage. The data for the average petrol price per US gallon were collected from GlobalPetrolPrices.com. All wages and prices are reflected in US dollars. Some countries either have no official or measurable minimum wage or no data on average petrol prices could be found.

Countries by Least Time Required

1. Venezuela – 10.59 minutes

2. Saudi Arabia – 14.03 minutes

3. Australia – 15.47 minutes

4. United States – 20.86 minutes

5. Luxembourg – 22.6 minutes

6. Canada – 23.25 minutes

7. Oman – 24.25 minutes

8. Norway* – 24.98 minutes

9. Monaco – 27.84 minutes

10. United Kingdom – 28.58 minutes

Countries by Most Time Required

1. Uganda – 350 hours

2. Cuba – 101.2 hours

3. Georgia – 57.8 hours

4. Bangladesh – 46.44 hours

5. The Gambia – 35.62 hours

6. Tanzania – 30.8 hours

7. Malawi – 24.06 hours

8. Kyrgyzstan – 24 hours

9. Guinea-Bissau – 21.25 hours

10. Madagascar – 19.26 hours

*Norway does not have an official minimum wage. Wage here is defined as 50% of average hourly wage for median household income at median hours worked. The poverty rate is defined as 50% of median income in Norway.

Unsurprisingly, people in wealthy countries have to work less hours in order to afford a gallon of petrol. Even though minimum wage is assumed, minimum wage is still much higher in wealthy countries. Venezuela and Saudi Arabia are the two countries with the least work hours required to afford a gallon of petrol, despite not being particularly wealthy countries. This is likely due to the fact that Venezuela and Saudi Arabia are the two countries with the greatest proven oil reserves. In fact, almost all of the countries with the lowest number of minutes are either very developed nations or nations with large oil and gas reserves. Another interesting fact of note is that Australians have to work less minutes than Americans in order to buy a gallon of petrol, despite average petrol prices being significantly higher in Australia ($3.43 a gallon vs $2.52 a gallon). This is due to the fact that Australia’s minimum wage is $13.30 while America’s is only $7.25.

On the other hand, undeveloped countries have to work an extreme number of hours at minimum wage in order to afford one gallon of petrol. People in Uganda, the country that tops the list of hours required, must work a staggering [b]350[/b] hours, or 14.58 straight days, in order to buy one gallon of petrol. This trend is seen across various undeveloped regions, in particular Africa. The only undeveloped countries that can break this trend are those with significant oil reserves. For example, Algeria is not a particularly developed nation, but Algerians need only work about one hour and 15 minutes in order to afford one gallon of petrol. Trinidad and Tobago is another example. Trinidadians need to work less than one hour in order to afford one gallon of petrol.

The countries with the least number of minutes required are all countries with higher high minimum wage or vast oil and gas resources. On the other hand, undeveloped nations with little to no oil and gas resources must work an extreme number of hours at minimum wage in order to afford one gallon of petrol.”

Note***

This article was written in November 2016 when gas prices were just obscene and now they are ridiculously obscene…

Went to an open house in the ‘Sauga on Saturday. Wasn’t nearly as appealing as the pictures on zolo. Didn’t stop them from demanding a million bucks for it though. But the curious bulge in the back wall got me wondering. Just how long are these particle board McMansions supposed to last anyway? How old can one get before it’s condemned?

And of course, the books and blog of Garth Turner, whose career spans the public and private sector, journalism, editor and writing. A rare combination, and Canadian to boot.

Turner Investments’s website describes his career as “multifaceted,” noting he has worked as a federal MP and federal cabinet minister, a business journalist, editor, TV personality, lecturer, environmentalist, entrepreneur, and financial advisor.

4 of 5 own homes that are well in hand, with equity. 2 of that 4 don’t pay a mortgage due to tenants (duplex’s with 1 basement suite on the owner occupied side). Matter of fact they don’t pay insurance or property tax either.

One, I have no idea of his investment situation but the other four all hold maxed TFSA’s with emergency funds on hand. Two of that four are maxed out in TFSA.

All drive newer, nicer vehicles, 3 of the five have no vehicle payments, no idea about the other two.

None live in GTA or Van or affiliated areas tho.

One carpenter, two middle management for a large automotive group, one OTR truck driver and one crane operator.

“T2 wants to let everyone cultivate up to four marijuana plants, producing a potential 5 kg a year of pot. CREA’s horrified.”

The experience in Oregon was that in the first year of legalization farmers grew 3 times as much pot as there was demand. Growers in BC were pissed. All those plants they had stashed just off the power lines were not going to Oregon.

A similar thing happened here in Calgary during the oil boom. By my reckoning over 50% of the homemade beer and wine stores closed down as nobody could be bothered to make it when Co-Op brand wine was $7 a bottle and unless you were good at it probably tasted a lot better.

So I’m not too worried about the nation’s condos turning into micro pot plantations. 4 plants takes up a lot of room in a 1 bedroom condo. It’ll be easier and cheaper to just buy it.

I don’t even think usage will go up much. Do you know anyone who wants to smoke pot who hasn’t already got a supplier? High school kids smoke pot in the alley every day already, at least those who want to.

I do expect that you’ll see e-joints pretty quickly though. If they can put nicotine in the vape I can’t see a technical reason they can’t put THC in there. I don’t think they would need to make any changes to the equipment at all, just the recipe of the vape. There you go, strawberry flavored pot that has virtually no smell. You can get high in your condo without upsetting the neighbors. Should be very popular. The other reason I think e-joints will be very popular is because it will be virtually impossible for people around you to know what’s in it. Thus it will be possible to toke up just about anywhere.

@#113 Floppie
“Upon re-entering the vehicle my wife asked me why I was crying….”
+++++
ahahahaha.
Sounds like my trip to the NWT a decade or two ago.

It was 1980 and a couple of fishing buds and myself were headed up the Alaska Highway towards the Yukon Territory for a little fun in a 1967 Chevy half ton. Can’t remember where we were but pulled up to a lone gas pump outside a house on the side of the muddy “highway.” I looked at the price of gas on the pump and was sticker shocked as this was where the price took a giant leap upward. As the fellow came out of the house in his rubber boots to serve us we had a quick confab and when he reached the truck and looked in the window and asked how much we wanted I replied “give me ten dollars worth.” As our truck was pointing north he just let out a belly laugh and as he pointed his finger northward said “do you think it’s going to be any cheaper up there?” We filled up. Great trip …

Waiverless on 04.30.18 at 1:28 pm
#82 Fake News Again on 04.30.18 at 11:51 am
Gravy Train on 04.30.18 at 5:29 am
#2 Fake News Again on 04.29.18 at 4:37 pm
“The average 30-year-old makes $71,000?”

You have very poor reading skills; no wonder you think everything you read is fake! Garth said the average millennial household has an income of $71,000. Learn to read, and then learn to apply critical thinking skills! BTW, Garth was referring to average income, not average age! :)

_____

As said earlier…..”where” is it written down that “household” means more than one earner? And I stand by my point. If you exclude overpaid Govt workers the “average millennial” does not make $38/hour or $71000 a year. I would challenge anyone to find 50 people across the country aged 28-37 and average their yearly salaries……it will not be $71,000. If that were the case there would not be a glut of “interest only ” mortgages and 30 year old kiddies living in their moms basement.

————————————————————–
Doubling down on your bad math eh… Some households are 2 people.. some are not. On ‘average’ these combinations of households earn 71k. It’s not hard to understand. And exclude government workers? Sounds like you just got an axe to grind with that category or workers else why exclude them. If we’re excluding them let’s toss out all the oil and gas workers in Alberta.. they’ll skew the numbers up right… or the millennial age workers at Timmies.. they’re messing up the average too aren’t they. Stop making it about 50 people and make it 50 households like Garth mentioned and you will easily get 71k. Hint that’s two wager earners making 35k and 36k (terrible salaries) in one household. Now realize many are making much more to balance your single earner households. See not so hard when you work it out – if you can take a moment to stop hating on the ‘overpaid government workers’ to consider it

________

GOVT…..has destroyed every civilization from the dawn of time. Go read a book. You think that because we have IPhones that will change? WHOM is going to pay for the 500 BILLION dollars of GOVT WORKER pensions that is currently owed? Oh right…..the $71,000 AVERAGE income household of Timmie/McDonalds workers….

Just today I my wife told me about a person she knows that is going “to retire at 55” with FULL TAXPAYER FUNDED PENSION. So this clown is going to lay around in Mexico for 30 years…..ON MY DIME !!!!

Canada has TRILLIONS in resources. Yet we are one of the highest taxed countries in the world? One guess why that is? Norway has more than a TRILLION dollars in the bank and a similar economy/socialist system as ours.

So YES….I am sick and tired of being 3 levels of GOVT to DEATH……..its a waste its disgusting and I’m embarassed to be a Canadian seeing how Govt screws over the private sector……

Individual owner-occupiers, probably not a problem in general. The stress tests and stability at 2013 prices will keep them in their homes. A few of them might have to cut back, but mostly a buyer at the 2013 peak still is in relatively decent shape.

The real problem is the “landlord families”. These are the folks who have increasingly been going to the subprime lenders looking for the 7-8% loans, instead of the 3-4% loans. With appreciation non-existent in the GTA/GVR since the 2013 peak, and in fact, an outflux of people in the GVR over the past few years weakening rents, many of them are in severe trouble. No equity. Weakening rent. Negative income after depreciation. Extreme leverage.

Some “landlord families” must be on the edge, ready to do the jingle mail thing with the 20-30+ units they own. A few more rate increases and credit term tightenings, particularly in the lower quality credit, and what is currently a trickle could turn into a waterfall of landlord families facing insolvency.

Meanwhile the employment market in the GTA/GVR continues to weaken due to the unusual concentration of economic activity in those two respective cities being in the RE sector, and very little vibrance elsewhere. A thousand or two modestly paid jobs at best from Amazon in Vancouver won’t make up for the losses in the local retail, RE, and financial sectors that are now in solid retreat as the home equity game goes completely in reverse.

Manulife “the economy is far more interest sensitive than it has been in the past, to a degree that we don’t have certainty over how each interest rate hike is going to affect Canadian consumers. All we know is it’s going to be painful, but how painful isn’t quite clear.”

Yes……
That’s what happens when people eat too much “low interest addictive candy” ..made mortgage illiterate folks think that they could afford a house when really they could not unless they tightened the mortgage shackles….that required to change their debt spending life styles….and accept the squeeze….elsewhere.

Now all those people who are mortgage slaves to lenders for the longest period of time in history…..will probably take over 30 years to free themselves from their mortgage payments….when will they discover that?

Guess the new Blond Hero Ford…..will fool even more down a path of tears when they finally wake up to realize that the real estate market is …..not working for the public but for their own silver lined pocket books and their members….and the speculators who support Ford.

You can see the….”dollar signs ” in their eyes as they smile and stand behind tricky Ford…..on TV.

Robotics has turned me towards engineering or architecture , but it would be a mistake to forget my passion for writing and arguing. Law school is a viable path as well. Two drastically different, yet equally stressful paths. I don’t know if I’ll ever be able to choose. My only hope is that I’ll be happy in whatever I end up doing.

I think the B20 part of this new “legislation by experimentation” will be the first to be rescinded. The government keeps imagining people have all this money when they don’t, they make ends meet by borrowing against their HELOC. This is the case even for many people who are already well established on the property ladder. Taxes and living expenses are just to damn high compared to wages. It used to be that $70,000 a year was a respectable salary. Indeed, it still is relative to what other people are making. But nowadays it just doesn’t go very far. You can’t raise a family of 4 on that. Even with 2 people working so $140,000 a year in income it’s not doable in Vancouver or Toronto. You must borrow a horrendous amount of money to make it work. Or rent. But I question the sanity of having kids if you know it is economically suicidal to buy a house.

The governments we have now pretty much all across Canada ar financially illiterate. That’s why they keep pushing things like carbon taxes. Hardly anybody in the 99% has any money to pay this. And it’s not like sin taxes on alcohol and tobacco which were design specifically to curtail consumption because people couldn’t afford it and didn’t really need it. Carbon taxes affect the price of everything, therefore consumption of everything must go down or debt must go up. There is no other way. This is why the US and China do not have carbon taxes and probably never will. Those are the 2 largest consumers of carbon based fuels on the planet. But they understand that at this point, carbon based fuels are the economy. Compared the amount those 2 economies consume to the tiny amount of carbon that tiny Canada with it’s 36 million people consume is a pittance. Sure, we use more per capita, but that’s because it’s fricken cold here if you hadn’t noticed.

And I am not denying that carbon may be a greenhouse gas and it may be causing climate change. But what choice do we have in the interim? We know what low carbon societies look like. They look like China did before they turned to industry. Wretched and poor. That, unfortunately, is what Turdeau and Nutely and the like want for the 99% in Canada. Short life spans. No heat. Starving. No industry. No jobs. No future. Burning your furniture to stay warm in the winter. Meanwhile the bulk of our oil production will continue to head to the states as it always has. They aren’t carbon taxing that, only the Canadian end user, who doesn’t have any money to pay it.

People should be worried about Canada changing their laws concerning Pot. In the same proposed law change they are going to implement mandatory roadside drug testing and mandatory jail time for impaired-driving offenses. What about people who live in apartments where the smell of pot is everywhere. Second-hand pot smoke will be a big concern now since it shows up on drug tests. Consider this scenario: You walk out of a restaurant and right into a cloud of 2nd hand POT smoke on the way to your car. Now you have to worry about whether or not you should drive home; not because you’re impaired but because you might test positive for pot at some checkpoint. So the government is going to allow pot smoking to become more commonplace and at the same time make everyone responsible for the second-hand pot smoke that they come into contact with. This is of course the end goal; an increase in the police state and its draconian powers (to make everyone guilty until proven innocent) with the full support of the population who already think that Gestapo style `paper`s please` checkpoints are a good thing when it comes to looking for impaired drivers. How many people are going to lose their children to the Stazi-like CPS due to residual POT being found in their kids blood test? How many people will fail a drug test on their job? How many people out on parole will fail their drug tests?
Also, the drug testing consists of saliva swabbing which will allow the government to add to their DNA database. This might be the ultimate goal of the whole scheme. People’s right to be drug-free outweighs the ‘rights’ of others to consume drugs: even those with a doctor’s prescription will never be justified in imposing their drug use upon others.

Grow-op houses were on sale fire sale that is when discovered and put on the market..why you ask?…. maryjane spores vs remediation… not cheap… so … sell them cheap and either demo the sucker or abate MJ’s skunkie aroma…. the Heath dept was a major player in this process . But Who cares about that now? I heard 24 Sussex Drive was in need of a revaping (lol) anyway.

The core condos in Vancouver have a 10 year pent up demand of people trying to get into the market. If you see even a 10% correction many people will pounce.
At the same time because of personal guarantees on mortgages and the right to garner wages into the future in the event of defaults most product can’t drop beyond the 10 – 15% mark. Otherwise the best thing a owner could do is sit on the property just like they did in the early 90’s and late 90’s (Both NDP eras 1991-01). Historically Vancouver’s market looks more like a staircase than a roller coaster due to those personal guarantees. A 08 crash is highly unlikely. At the same time industrial industry (the life blood of Ontario) runs on the same interest rates (different risk spreads) as the housing market. As a result any position would be committing political suicide if interest rates rose too quickly. Lastly demographically BC echo boomers (also known as the xenials) are in full child rearing mode needing 2 br condos and townhouses to live in with their children because houses would have to drop massively to get in those price points. Therefore condos and townhouses sub $1,000,000 are worth their weight in gold.

#35 Nonplused: Or maybe they want us to send someone upstairs to blow insulation into the attics of our decades-old bungalows. Cut down my gas bill, and thus my carbon taxes, like crazy when I finally was motivated enough to do it in 2009.

Since it is Wet Week here on Greaterfool, I might as well pull this one out of the vault as well.

It is from the States and is a couple of years old so hopefully things have improved a little bit.

I chopped it down ,so for the full experience click on the link…

M43BC

“The Majority of Millennials Have $1,000 or Less in Savings.

Millennials areprojectedto number 75.3 million for 2015, surpassing a projected 74.9 million for Baby Boomers. The Millennials will therefore comprise a greater percentage of the population than Baby Boomers for the first time. To gain insight into the saving habits of Millennials, we recently performed a survey of those from the ages of 18 to 34. We received 2,585 responses to our survey. The results of our survey found that over 50% of Millennials have less than $1,000 in savings. This would indicate that most millennials do not have a cushion to fall back on in case of an emergency. The rest of our findings can be analyzed with the visualizations below:

I had a young engineer assistant that could not recall a conversation we had the previous day . This was on going .
I thought he was just a typical knucklehead that had no interest in his job.
Until I saw him vaping one day at work, and he tried to conceal the pipe.
I know he doesn’t smoke cigarettes so I assume he was vaping thc .
Me thinks this is going to be very hard to police in the workplace .
Lots of lost productivity is in store .

#23 Albertaguy in AZ
Garth I know you are really pissed off about the real estate scene over most of Canada but would you please try to smile (even if just a wee bit) for your loyal followers when having your photo taken.
Your, may I say, sardonic expression should be reserved for meetings with Mr.Dress-Up and members of his ilk.

“These are all concerns that need to be considered before the passing of Bill C-45,” the realtor boss told senators.”

Sorry Pot smokers. Bill C-45 won’t pass. Even if it did it would still need Royal Accent to be passed into law in Canada. Our Head of State is not about to give that accent with recreational marijuana legalization legislation wrapped up in the Bill. Summer, Autumn and next Winter will come and go and Canada still won’t have marijuana legalized. The Liberal Government is failing in it directives everywhere you look ………… marijuana legalization will be no different.

#53 Mattl on 04.30.18 at 7:55 pm
FWIW pot is easy to grow, but is reasonably hard to grow well. Strains, substrates, light, temps, food, smells all need to be managed or you will pull small amounts of dirt weed.

Don’t believe me throw a couple tomatoe plants in your crawl space under t10 and get back to me when you harvest 10 small maters.
……………………

You didn’t hear it from me but it is about the lights. I have seen eight foot tall plants with buds the size of hen’s eggs grown indoors.

#42, This is no joke, I have lived through this mess in Calgary 1979. With no RE experience I did know one thing. We couldn’t save the down payment fast enough!
A condo out of town was $250k when my gross was 18,000/yr.
And yes, I know of one person that waited well over 20 yrs to get back to par. ( 1/2 way to Banff …nice ranch)

@#51 Hope and Ruin
“will I be allowed to keep a dairy cow in my backyard? ”
+++++
Move to vancouver where its legal to raise chickens in your back yard………and when did they pass that Law…..during the last bird flu epidemic…..

We can’t run an airbnb in our own home, now we can’t even grow our own mj plants? How will Canucks ever pay their mansions off? This is starting to feel like casino rama and house rules are in the tax man’s favour only.

Yup, let grow weed to help them cover their insane buying frenzy.
Then forgive their loans and let the tax payers cover their losses.
God knows what else we can do to these idiots.
The propaganda the real estate boards spread, reminds some of the news put out in Germany in the 1926-1937 before the war broke out.
God save us

Why are prices so damn high in Mississauga? This place is sprawling suburban wasteland, devoid of both culture and character. It’s home to some of the most hideous architecture in all of the Golden Horseshoe. Public amenities are woefully inadequate for the population base. Even Brampton has better parks. And how crazy is that? It’s only virtue is that it’s close to Toronto. (But “close” still means an hour commute both ways if you want to work downtown?

“T2 wants to let everyone cultivate up to four marijuana plants, producing a potential 5 kg a year of pot. CREA’s horrified.”

The experience in Oregon was that in the first year of legalization farmers grew 3 times as much pot as there was demand. Growers in BC were pissed. All those plants they had stashed just off the power lines were not going to Oregon.

A similar thing happened here in Calgary during the oil boom. By my reckoning over 50% of the homemade beer and wine stores closed down as nobody could be bothered to make it when Co-Op brand wine was $7 a bottle and unless you were good at it probably tasted a lot better.

So I’m not too worried about the nation’s condos turning into micro pot plantations. 4 plants takes up a lot of room in a 1 bedroom condo. It’ll be easier and cheaper to just buy it.

I don’t even think usage will go up much. Do you know anyone who wants to smoke pot who hasn’t already got a supplier? High school kids smoke pot in the alley every day already, at least those who want to.

I do expect that you’ll see e-joints pretty quickly though. If they can put nicotine in the vape I can’t see a technical reason they can’t put THC in there. I don’t think they would need to make any changes to the equipment at all, just the recipe of the vape. There you go, strawberry flavored pot that has virtually no smell. You can get high in your condo without upsetting the neighbors. Should be very popular. The other reason I think e-joints will be very popular is because it will be virtually impossible for people around you to know what’s in it. Thus it will be possible to toke up just about anywhere.

**************

Nicely put! Let’s at least try to keep it discrete and out of the school yards and public places.

Realtors giving advice on public policy. FFS!

I had thought Canada might excel at POT Policy, but it seems the US and others beat us to the punch bowl.

Total scaremongering. Here’s some friendly advice from a 2011 buyer (me) who also heard scary stuff back then. “Best to buy if you can. In 7 years, you’ll be glad you did.”

Guess what? It’s not 2011. – Garth
**********************

Were not in Kansas anymore…what can i say about that…things change fast and the tide can come in and that ankle chain to your house can now be a liability in certain cases for those that are heavily in debt. It’s not all happy path. Everyone’s mileage will vary.

Moncton? Best kept secret. Dish it all you want, there are not a lot of places left where you can raise a family on a decent salary working reasonable hours (we eat as a family most nights) and still put money aside for retirement (before we are 60), own your house without being house poor, get to work in 10 minutes, afford parking close to work, run errands at lunch, allow your kids to bike to elementary school every morning, get to see all your kids play at least one competitive sport or more (I have three kids) without having to travel 1 hour to a rink or school gym, and live in a community that still gives a $hit about you. Oh… and did I mention a world class beach 15 minutes away, ATV trails 5 mins away and a 25 acres property I can hunt and fish on within 1 hour drive purchased for less the $50K? I could go on… just because I didn’t pay $1 Million for my place, doesn’t means it’s not worth $1 Million…

“You didn’t hear it from me but it is about the lights. I have seen eight foot tall plants with buds the size of hen’s eggs grown indoors.”

It for sure is, and those 1k watt lights draw a ton of power and kick out a whole bunch of heat which needs to be removed. There is no cost effective way to grow 4 plants indoors, most home grows would be insanely lucky to get a few dry ounces per plant. No one is pulling 5kg from four plants in a condo closet or a home windowsill.

With our lease ending in a few months, my wife and I tested the rental market here in Calgary last weekend. Found a nice four bedroom 3.5 bath detached house located in the south on Kijiji for $2K per month..$500 per month less than we’re paying now in a little better area backed up against a golf course.

When we pulled up, the first thing I noticed was a for sale sign out front..was this place for sale or rent?

Met the owner inside. This was his second property. First thing he said was don’t worry about the for sale sign… it’s coming off the market April 30th. Said he listed it for $479K, but no bites. He said his neighbor just listed his house for $410K…. There goes his comps! Said his only choice now is to rent and wait it out. Nice guy and the house was decent, but my wife didn’t like it. Plenty of investment houses for rent out here with prices dropping as owners get more desperate.

It hit 27C on Saturday and the real estate cartel was out in full force. When we got home, there were 12 (!) Open house signs on the roundabout at the end of my street.

One of the older agents asked if he could put a sign on my front yard, which I didn’t have a problem with. I asked him how the market was doing. He said he’s been selling real estate in Calgary for 43 years and hasn’t seen it this bad since the early 80s. He said nothing is moving. Nothing. Nobody’s getting financing.

#36 Whatcha Minnie on 04.30.18 at 7:06 pm
Robotics has turned me towards engineering or architecture , but it would be a mistake to forget my passion for writing and arguing. Law school is a viable path as well. Two drastically different, yet equally stressful paths. I don’t know if I’ll ever be able to choose. My only hope is that I’ll be happy in whatever I end up doing.
…………………….

What happens to our Loonies? Do I have to withdraw my investment portfolio for loonies and toonies for the steel value when the Loonie collapses, or should the Bank of Canada raise rates and tell Toronto to keep calm and march in their Gay Prides? Gay means happy.

Discusses the manipulation of the RE boards, Amazon’s alleged jobs for the Vancouver area. Ross goes on to discuss the predatory nature of Canada’s banks with respect to mortgage renewals and retail mortgage credit spread expansion on customers made ‘captive’ due to diminishing credit metrics, reduced equity, and tighter “B20” rules.

Also describes some alleged mathematical illiteracy on the part of the CMHC President. Definitely worth a listen!

Areas like Newmarket. Richmond Hill, Vaughan or Stouffville are now prime commutershed regions, serviced by wide highways and politicians with rapid transit expansion plans in their eyes. A year ago some of the biggest price gains in a bubbly time were happening up where the deer and groundhogs used to call home.http://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/04/10/no-pity/

That’s the key right there. I.E. they’re not drowning in school + mortgage debt.

I work with plenty of mils, all tradesmen, they’re tough to keep. Boss has to keep paying them more to fend off competing shops. These guys have mortgages in the 600-1500 range, and zero school debt (apprentices get paid to go to school).

This is the difference. Out here, 20 something couples own nice trucks, decent houses, and toys galore. Some have kids too.

A decent young machinist/ welder-fitter/millwright in a medium sized city can expect to make 60K, and if the wife is making a similar amount, you’ve got a couple with ~4K left over every month after the bills are paid.

I know I go on and on about this, I guess I’m old enough now to see that a job is just a job, a city is just a city, and neither one of these is worth signing on for a life of extreme debt slavery. It doesn’t matter what everyone else is doing. It doesn’t matter how you make a living.

Freedom is what’s important, you can’t be free if you’re living in fear. There’s no way in hell you’d see me gargle 100K in school debt, and then get stupid trying to finance a million dollar shack on top. I’d be the last guy trying to get a loan for a place if I knew it was out of my comfort zone – that’s where your logic and reason plus any wisdom you’ve acquired along the way should be screaming bloody murder at you to just stop already.

Maybe I’m the odd man out here, but give me financial security, early retirement, and something significant to pass along, and I’ll be happy as a clam hitting the trails aboard the indefatigable ruler of all things off-road Grizzly 700 SE (or the only slightly less exalted Raptor 700R), taking off at dawn for some fishing, going on a road trip, or working on something heavy and yellow.

To funny. Seattle is going to impose a per head tax on companies making more than 20 million. Amazon with its SJW CEO and fake news Washington post owner is pissed.

Watch my children, how fast capital moves out of that city. Lefties just don’t understand that concept. Money has wings. If you want to raise tax revenue, remove obsitcals for doing business. Lower taxes and intice investment. Build it and they will come.

Lefties when they get enough power they restrict travel, disarm the public, confiscate wealth and line up decenters against firing squad walls. 100 million in the last hundred years.

The numbers showing a slowdown are garbage. Things on the construction sites have never been busier. We’re all getting new trucks, money is rolling in, everyone is gobbling up real estate. No shortage of work, the good times are here.

All this doom and gloom, I just don’t see it. As long as immigration keeps up the good times are here to stay. Nothing is gonna derail this housing boom, this time it’s here to stay.

Rates have gone up, B20, nothing is really changing at the subdivision level. People coming here need a place to stay, and with 300,000+ people coming here, well, that’s job security.

Funny you should mention that.
Was driving home from work yesterday afternoon. Staopped at a light at Kingsway and Royal Oak in Burnaby.
Saw a Mother, Father and 3 little kids standing with a cardboard sign in the drizzling rain ….”Need a place 2 Rent”…..
I’m assuming they were evicted Apr 30.

Not all new condos go to the homeless. In BC they go to specc’ers and flippers who let them sit empty.

Seems like somebody wrote an inane-comment-stealing-and-reposting bot and called it “Watcha Minnie”. Who knows where else it posts, or under what names. If left unchecked, the amount of boredom it induces could bring down the whole internet. Garth, pretty soon you’re going to have to add a Captcha test for posting comments on your blog.

Canada’s economy rebounded more than economists forecast in February, as idled oil and auto production came back on line.

Gross domestic product expanded 0.4 per cent during the month following a 0.1 per cent contraction in January, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday in Ottawa. Economists anticipated a 0.3 per cent gain.

The bounce back provides some reassurance the economy is poised to emerge from a recent soft patch of growth, particularly given broad-based gains in key sectors such as manufacturing and signs that rail bottlenecks may be dissipating.

Some of the guys at work were talking about getting their mowers ready for action. A couple take them in to get sharpened and tuned up.

Last night I did my lawn tractor myself, saving the cost of labour and taxes thereof. I greased the machine with top quality Lucas lithium complex grease bought on sale via Amazon.ca for near half price. It went into a 14oz, pistol grip, rigid grease gun I found at the scrap yard years ago wile dropping off a load. The yard owner let me have it no charge, it worked then, and still works fine (made in USA). I filled the crankcase with top quality Amsoil 10W30 I bought from a local guy who has a distributorship and sells on the side for a great price.

The blades came off with a made in the USA 1/2″ drive Craftsman corded electric impact from the 80’s obtained used years ago for peanuts – it’s as good, if not better than any current day model regardless of price. I love this thing.

They were then sharpened with a POS offshore grinder I bought new for 20.00 on sale. I probably blow 1 of these pretty much every year or two. All you need to do is accidently lean on it too hard just once and it will be a smoke machine within 2 minutes. Some day I will score a deal on an old rebuildable Makita.

Tires were topped off via a free compressor I repaired 5 years ago, and then again 2 years ago. I blew out the air filter and sock, and pressed them into service for another year.

The Broadmoor started right up, I noticed the hr meter is about to trip 700 – and it’s still running and mowing great. These are worth looking after, and actually fixing (gasp!) if they suffer a major failure. I would not hesitate to drop a grand fixing it.

I gave it a quick rinse with the high pressure sprayer. The sprayer was free, engine running but non-spraying. A set of new pump valves bought online for 20.00 (no tax) and a 2 hour pump rebuild and it was working good again.

Labour bill for the work last night was $0.00. Taxes paid, about 3 bucks.

@ Bytor the Govt Pensioner
“you’re wrong about gov’t pensions”
++++++
Wrong about their fiscal unsustainability?
Wrong about the retirement at 55 with 30 years of taxpayer subsidized exgovt employee cheques rolling in…
Or does the truth his a little too close to home?

Areas like Newmarket. Richmond Hill, Vaughan or Stouffville are now prime commutershed regions, serviced by wide highways and politicians with rapid transit expansion plans in their eyes. A year ago some of the biggest price gains in a bubbly time were happening up where the deer and groundhogs used to call home.http://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/04/10/no-pity/

People said it wouldn’t end

What they meant was that it wouldn’t end well…

………..

of course no asset goes up sharply without the brakes coming on. Those of us that bought in ’06-’11 did VERY WELL. It ended WELL….:)

Much like Kinder Morgan, electoral reform, tax fairness, an affirmative action cabinet balance, and everything else this clown festival of a Liberal government tries to actually execute, they will have no clue how to handle this realtor association concern about pot. Maybe we can finally annex Turks & Caicos so that The Snowboarder can smoke a spliff on the beach when he’s there next instead of visiting our troops.

It’s beautiful! Will cause mass confusion, AND cause house values to drop. Guaranteed to add to our winning chances in 2019!!

#118 IHCTD9 on 05.01.18 at 10:08 am
“Last night I [repaired] my lawn tractor myself, saving the cost of labour and taxes thereof…. Labour bill for the work last night was $0.00. Taxes paid, about 3 bucks.”

If the women don’t find you handsome, they should at least find you handy. — Steve Smith, The Red Green Show :)

#5 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 04.30.18 at 4:34 pm
watching sales and prices crash in the GTA makes me happy. Many SHYSTERS are suffering financial hardship and it will only get worse for Year’s. yes you SHYSTERS years of very little sales at smaller commissions. Happy Housing Crash Everyone Everyone! very little selling in GTA and getting worse :-)))
_ _ _
If you needed another reason to hate real estate shysters, the Globe & Mail just found it for you:

“Flipping of condo units by insiders fuels hot Vancouver market

The most sought-after condos under construction in Canada’s priciest real estate market are being snapped up in private deals involving developers, select realtors and speculators.

Many of those players later flip the units for much higher prices, sucking up supply, further driving up prices and leaving Vancouver-area residents increasingly desperate for an affordable place to live.

Interesting situation developing in Canada with regard to the Trump tax reforms and Canadian Controlled Private Corporations.

A CCPC can retain earnings and pay tax at the low corporate rate of around 15%. The earnings are only taxed at the personal rate of whomever is controlling the corporation, when that person or persons pulls the money out.

What the CCPCs have been doing is holding the money in the corporations as retained earnings, and then paying it out to the shareholders as dividends, or to the owners of the CCPC as employment income, once those running the CCPC retire. In this way, people have accumulated substantial retirement nest eggs in CCPCs. Bill Morneau was talking last year about pulling this money out by taxing retained earnings, but has not done anything about that yet.

Trump may have beat him to it.

Under the new US tax reforms, retained earnings in these corporations, if the CCPC is held by US citizens, are taxable at the full marginal rate payable by the US citizen, back to 1986 (yup, it’s a retroactive tax).

So if you started your CCPC back in 1986, paid your 15% tax on retained earnings, and your personal tax on employment income or dividends pulled from the retained earnings, and you are a US citizen, you now owe the US government full marginal tax on all of the retained earnings of your CCPC back to 1986.

So if your corporation has retained, say $22,000,000 in earnings since 1986, then you have to pay US tax on that. If you pull that money out, to pay the US tax, then you also have to pay the personal tax at your marginal rate, in Canada, because you withdrew the money from the CCPC.

People are going to get literally cleaned out on this. Likely there will be no money left after the Canadian govt takes its 54% and the US govt takes the rest.

119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.01.18 at 10:13 am sez:
“@ Bytor the Govt Pensioner
“you’re wrong about gov’t pensions”
++++++
Wrong about their fiscal unsustainability?
Wrong about the retirement at 55 with 30 years of taxpayer subsidized exgovt employee cheques rolling in…
Or does the truth his a little too close to home?”
———————————————————–
Wrong on financial sustainability, wrong on how pensions are structured (who pays), and wrong about something “hitting a little too close to home”.

You hiring? I would like to increase my self-sufficiency. I could start by splitting firewood.

More than once you have posited here that many homes in this country that appear to have garnered capital gains have in fact not done so. Back of napkin figgerin for my shack in Calgary almost bear that out. Purchased for $325K in 2004. Latest municipal assessment (worthy of no reliance – a drive by appraisal, square footage and postal code – they did not see the 1959 bathroom) is $657K. But with interest, taxes, roof shingles, backed up sewage line, replacement appliances including 2 water heaters, expensive paint job inside, $25K on the bathrooms, and repairing the drywall where my son put his fist through it, and I am left with a very small gain.

Illusory.

I did some home repair today. 2003 BMW 3 series. The left front signal light housing fell out. I have three colours of duct tape, black, green and silver. The silver was almost a perfect match with the paint colour.

Two questions:

1. It seems to me that a log splitter would be pretty easy to build. Have you built one?

2. I love that little German sedan. It is fun to drive. It has 151,000 K on the mill. Is it worth it to have rust remediated. There is not much but I take it that what rust you can see is the least of the problems. I’d like to drive it for another 14 years. I’d like to doll it up a bit.

“Today the UK government voted for transparency. By agreeing to push the UK’s Overseas Territories to publish public registers of the real owners of their companies, the UK has led the world in one of the biggest moves we have seen in the fight against corruption for years. This is HUGE.

Why? Because as so many of our investigations over the years have revealed, corrupt officials, McMafia style-mobsters and oligarchs use companies registered in these Territories, places like the Cayman Islands and British Virgin Islands, to hide their criminal activities.

The anonymous companies for sale in these jurisdictions allow the corrupt and the criminal to steal, hide and move suspect funds around the world. And over a year ago, the Panama Papers demonstrated their importance, as they revealed that more than half of the companies named in the papers were registered in the UK’s Overseas Territories.”

In fact trusts (and foundations) are the elephant in the room when it comes to greater transparency – because despite this step forward today on public registers of the real owners of companies in Britain’s OTs, these alternative secrecy escape vehicles remain in the shadows. This is why the Tax Justice Network has always argued for public registers of companies, as well as for trusts and foundations. You can read more about our concerns over trust secrecy on Andres Knobel’s recent TJN paper ‘Trusts: Weapons of Mass Injustice’ here. He also discusses the context around beneficial ownership and the EU’s efforts regarding the anti-money laundering directive here.

==
“The Spider’s Web. Britain’s Second Empire” makes amply clear, the Crown Dependencies such as Jersey are in urgent need of transparency reform. This finding is corroborated by the Financial Secrecy Index, where Jersey, Guernsey and Isle of Man still contribute a further 4% of our global total of financial secrecy, with an average secrecy score of 67%, far higher than UKs. And then there is the question of implementation of the new measures, and the widespread loopholes left in the definition of company beneficial ownership. And let’s not forget about the trusts…

In one mind-boggling case, a BVI company linked to the Russian government (according to US authorities) sent at least $900,000 to another BVI company owned by a Russian businessman. That Russian businessman was later found to have ties to Syria’s chemical weapons programme.

As if that wasn’t enough, the owner of the first company fled to the UK where he died in suspicious circumstances. A US government report alleged his murder was personally sanctioned by Putin.

You hiring? I would like to increase my self-sufficiency. I could start by splitting firewood.

More than once you have posited here that many homes in this country that appear to have garnered capital gains have in fact not done so. Back of napkin figgerin for my shack in Calgary almost bear that out. Purchased for $325K in 2004. Latest municipal assessment (worthy of no reliance – a drive by appraisal, square footage and postal code – they did not see the 1959 bathroom) is $657K. But with interest, taxes, roof shingles, backed up sewage line, replacement appliances including 2 water heaters, expensive paint job inside, $25K on the bathrooms, and repairing the drywall where my son put his fist through it, and I am left with a very small gain.

Illusory.

I did some home repair today. 2003 BMW 3 series. The left front signal light housing fell out. I have three colours of duct tape, black, green and silver. The silver was almost a perfect match with the paint colour.

Two questions:

1. It seems to me that a log splitter would be pretty easy to build. Have you built one?

2. I love that little German sedan. It is fun to drive. It has 151,000 K on the mill. Is it worth it to have rust remediated. There is not much but I take it that what rust you can see is the least of the problems. I’d like to drive it for another 14 years. I’d like to doll it up a bit.

Cheers,

WUL
_____

Hi WUL, nice to see your “face” here again.

Yep – the difference between having made money on RE or barely breaking even is honesty. I’d make 1% or so, that’s an honest amount after near 17 years ownership. It costs me all kinds of money (even more of time and sweat) every year.

Sure, the folks that got lucky buying before, and in a bubble zone are making a pile – maybe .05% of the population did this by accident.

1. The splitters are easy to build, but I have not built one. Probably not worth building one for the cost of a new one these days. YT has lots of other ideas for processing wood other than hydraulic rams – well worth the time looking if you haven’t already. Some real back yard engineering here – and some extreme danger as well :).

2. The 03 BMW is not worth repairing rust – but it’s your car so you can do whatever you like. My wife had an ’84 E30 318i 2 door way back, nice handling little car.

“The Seattle-based company plans to increase its Vancouver workforce five-fold to 5,000 by 2022”.

I don’t see how an extra 4,000 Vancouver residents spread over 4 years going to make any difference in the RE peak. If it even happens in the first place. Amazon is likely expecting to pay the majority of those additional 4,000 people an average Vancouver salary and comments here continually remind us of how nobody in Vancouver with an average salary can afford to buy a house there.

Wow, come visit Golden BC and check out the bubblicious real estate! I’m still a renter, but looking at being forced to buy or build since there’s nothing available and prices are still soaring. Houses under 400K selling in 3 days on the market. Big highway project starts next year. Guy I work with is trying to sell his place since he outgrew it and has a prego wife. He has to go down to one vehicle and rid a bicycle to work! unreal, I refuse to be house poor, would rather buy a trailer and have money to insure my Harley. I see prices falling everywhere else, but Golden’s market seems to be just that, at least everyone thinks it’s “Golden” the town has very little to offer, is isolated and not on a lake like Invermere to the south that boasted the highest priced lake front real estate a little over a decade ago. This is really insane, locals talking about moving to the other side of the country (Myself included) to afford a home, all I can say is, wow, homeless rate is likely to go up some

They gave it to Obama in 2009, and he was absolutely the worst foreign policy president in the US’s history. By a long, long way too. He also had the two worst Secretaries of State of all time, Kerry and Hillarious.

This was the gang that sent a clear message to Putin that the US was a completely absent, confused, inept leadership that wasn’t prepared to do anything to stand in Russia’s way. Russia walked into Ukraine, nothing was done. The next domino was Syria, nothing was done. They set a ‘chemical weapons line in the sand’ which might as well have been a line on Innisfil Beach. They were a complete clown festival.

Nixon stopped Vietnam, Reagan stopped the USSR, and now Trump, as impossibly as it seems, may have a breakthrough on his watch in the Korean Penninsula.

Its been PROVEN time and time again.,
Federal, Provincial and municipal pension plans are underfunded by the 3 levels of govt employees that will suck the taxpayer teat for the next 30 years.

But don’t believe me. I really don’t care.
But of the rest of the heavily taxed private sector workers have anything to say about their ever rising taxes, their unfunded, non guaranteed pitiful pensions….
There will be a reckoning…..and soon.

I could “cut and paste” links all day.
but why bother?
You just keep telling yourself that govt employee pensions are self sustaining and fully paid by the sloths that feed at the trough…… while the rest of us will know the truth…….

“The Seattle-based company plans to increase its Vancouver workforce five-fold to 5,000 by 2022”.

I don’t see how an extra 4,000 Vancouver residents spread over 4 years going to make any difference in the RE peak. If it even happens in the first place. Amazon is likely expecting to pay the majority of those additional 4,000 people an average Vancouver salary and comments here continually remind us of how nobody in Vancouver with an average salary can afford to buy a house there.”

The answer to your question is found in the article:

“Amazon attracts other companies that also want that talent so they build, have offices next door or adjacent to it – supply becomes a challenge.”

In other words there’s a multiplier effect that goes well beyond the 4,000 direct new hires.

“Yep – the difference between having made money on RE or barely breaking even is honesty. I’d make 1% or so, that’s an honest amount after near 17 years ownership. It costs me all kinds of money (even more of time and sweat) every year.”

Me too … totally agree. Everyone in the same city is subject to the same market and pretty much the same resources when it comes to shysters, mortgages, repairs, maintenance, etc. The only variable is people’s honesty and their ability to do basic math.

Also have had many BMWs over the years – 3’s, 5’s, 7’s and an X5. They were all fun to drive but very frustrating to own. Looks and performance wise they’re great but underneath not very well built. The one I had the longest was an e46 2-door 3-series and drove it to 178,000 miles but all the others were sold before 125,000 miles because I got tired of spending money fixing the same things over and over again that were poorly built and designed in the first place. If I had to get another BMW it would definitely be a 3-series simply because for that series of car the aftermarket has tons of better parts and remedies for all the garbage that BMW puts on their cars at the factory and dealerships. Not as many aftermarket solutions for 5’s, 7’s and X’s.

Garth! I would love a post about how you started your own business and got where you are today. It would be inspirational to a young moister like me. I’m sure you would have some great wisdom to pass down on the subject of entrepreneurship.

Interesting situation developing in Canada with regard to the Trump tax reforms and Canadian Controlled Private Corporations.

What the CCPCs have been doing is holding the money in the corporations as retained earnings, and then paying it out to the shareholders as dividends, or to the owners of the CCPC as employment income, once those running the CCPC retire.

***************************************
If the tax is truly on “retained earnings” as opposed to earnings that were both retained AND left as cash rather than invested in coprorate assets, then this is really ugly. Well it is ugly anyhow.

In the mind of the average voter, “retained earnings” means “cash”. In reality in many cases retained earnings of a corporation have been spent on corporate assets including equipment and buildings or even to finance accounts receivable.

Are Canadian small corporations owned by Americans to sell their productive assets (when the assets are not in cash or securities) to pay a large bizarre tax bill?

In the case of large corporations, Apple might well have billion in retained earnings invested in cash outside of the U.S. But the likes of Costco for example has tons of foreign retained earnings invested in buildings and inventory outside of the U.S. as opposed to cash.

But oh well, why should mere facts get in the way of whatever President Trump thinks will play well to his base? Inconvenient facts are fake anyhow, right?

I had an E38 7 series w/M Paralell Chrome 18’s and out of the many luxury cars I have had it ranks up there. Build solid as rock, super quick and comfy, AC so cold you could hang meat. Big drawback it is they are Over engineered. Too many relays, fuses, etc

It LOVED going to the mechanic so very expensive to drive.. was worth every penny though car rocked and looked like a million bucks. Kid T-Boned me hard and I just walked away.. Lucky.

“In the case of large corporations, Apple might well have billion in retained earnings invested in cash outside of the U.S. “

In many, if not most cases involving the big tech companies, the ‘retained earnings’ that are allegedly cash are already ‘invested’ in the United States, and are certainly available for investment in any US-based production, R&D, etc., that is to the firm’s advantage. Only that the title to such “offshore cash” is vested with a foreign subsidiary.

Trump and supporters of ‘repatriation’ have been under the allusion/delusion that there’s a giant hoarde of “cash” outside of the United States, that, if not for tax policy, would magically just come rushing back in. The problem is, that’s mostly false. An offshore subsidiary of a US corporation can and does easily invest its money anywhere it wants, just like any other investor. They have deliberately chosen *not* to invest in the United States because the business climate is extremely uncompetitive. The “repatriation tax amnesty” is little more than a massive tax give-away to some of the world’s largest corporations. By giving them a free pass on paying full and ordinary US tax rates, the same firms will be further incentivized to accelerate the activity, heavily offshore licensing of IP and other transfer pricing schemes, as well as offshored production that caused significant assets to accumulate offshore in the first place. The Trump administration’s policy is hence quite damaging to the US economy, damaging to US workers, damaging to the Federal government which will give up tax revenue. And for what, one last big pump of the stock market before rising interest rates kneecap the US economy? Grotesque if you ask me.

“The Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto Dominion Bank announced last week that they would raise their benchmark mortgage rates.”

The bigger, but untold story is the significant numbers of people walking into those branches, all confident that they’ll be able to get a deeply discounted rate as they did in the past. Only to be told, due to their weak equity position (with Canadian house prices not rising since 2013) that they no longer qualify for the ‘best’ rates.

Of course, many may be stuck paying the posted rate, and due to their weak equity position and B20 rules, essentially held ‘captive’ to a specific lender due to inability to re-qualify at another. Which for many families will likely be catastrophic for their discretionary disposable income and even any accumulated equity.

Per my previous posts – my prediction is one .25 rate hike in July, and then another in January 2019 (if conditions warrant). BoC will finish the year either 50 or 75 basis points (if the Fed hikes 4 times in 2018) below the US Fed.

It is going to take multiple months of “official” CPI well over 2%, and more signs of wage inflation, to get the BoC to move.

Boils down to this. If you’re a homeowner and you want to reverse the failing real estate prices vote conservative, talk to your nabous

If you want real estate to get toatly crushed vote liberal. Risky because you not have a job to take advantage of this windfall.

If you really want to be safe. Get the hell out of Canada until you what you’re dealing with.

Pease out
Dr Smoking Man
_______________________________________
So we can take it to the bank on the fact that your never coming back to Canada?
Works for me, one less asshole stinking up the atmosphere.

#99 Smoking Man on 05.01.18 at 1:32 am
Got tickets for Jennifer Lopez, backstage passes. wife loves her. Second last Saturday in May in Vegas.
35-year anniversary…..no idea who she is or what she sings.
I just know that I will get a pass when the wife finds the empty mickeys in the backyard. Going insane on my alcoholism.
Shit, you need to do to keep me happy.
Does no one watch John Wayne or Bruce Willis moves anymore.
That’s how I learned to be a man.
Don’t think its that bad
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Jenifer Lopez……….baha ha ha ha ha ha grow a pair Smoky!

People should be worried about Canada changing their laws concerning Pot. In the same proposed law change they are going to implement mandatory roadside drug testing and mandatory jail time for impaired-driving offenses. What about people who live in apartments where the smell of pot is everywhere. Second-hand pot smoke will be a big concern now since it shows up on drug tests. Consider this scenario: You walk out of a restaurant and right into a cloud of 2nd hand POT smoke on the way to your car. Now you have to worry about whether or not you should drive home; not because you’re impaired but because you might test positive for pot at some checkpoint. So the government is going to allow pot smoking to become more commonplace and at the same time make everyone responsible for the second-hand pot smoke that they come into contact with. This is of course the end goal; an increase in the police state and its draconian powers (to make everyone guilty until proven innocent) with the full support of the population who already think that Gestapo style `paper`s please` checkpoints are a good thing when it comes to looking for impaired drivers. How many people are going to lose their children to the Stazi-like CPS due to residual POT being found in their kids blood test? How many people will fail a drug test on their job? How many people out on parole will fail their drug tests?
Also, the drug testing consists of saliva swabbing which will allow the government to add to their DNA database. This might be the ultimate goal of the whole scheme. People’s right to be drug-free outweighs the ‘rights’ of others to consume drugs: even those with a doctor’s prescription will never be justified in imposing their drug use upon others.
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My sister and her boyfriend moved out of their apartment condo just due to this issue. Second hand pot smells pretty bad and never leaves the building. Once its legal there no stopping it.

Sorry I have a slightly more negative view on the whole Amazon Vancouver story… It is my opinion (since none of us are Jeff Bezos) that Amazon is using us as a “landing pad” to get more non-US citizens into their workforce. My limited understanding is that US companies are required to employ a certain % of US citizens/permanent residents (of course). Thus if a company wants to hire more employees at a discount (since North American salaries are generally higher than that of say Asia when comparing jobs like software developers or engineers) then they have to get creative in the hiring.

Recall about a decade ago (2007?) when Microsoft opened up a development centre in Richmond BC to great fanfare and similar things were said: “we have the best diverse workforce” “this will drive demand and innovation” “awesome for everyone” and then a few years later they folded the office.

“I wonder when listing numbers will start going up. Once people finally realize the longer they wait, the less they will be getting over the next few years, there may be a flood of them. For now, lots of people are hanging on and hoping to get what their neighbor got last year.”

Exactly. What I find really dramatic is that greedy sellers are letting themselves in for enormous loss of future opportunities that more valuable money will afford those who actually possess it. The crossover point you are referring to is coming soon and will last a very long time.

#3 Brian R……in my long experience the real estate crashes of the past have always been neck and neck with a stock market boom. It’s been super unnerving for real estate investors clutched without investment cash while stocks roar ahead. Let’s see what happens….the fundamentals for stock are very positive while sentiment remains locked on perception….the classic wall of worry. I’ll be super excited if any flash crash occurs for any reason and an building cash for what ever may lay ahead. What could it be? My guess is something Misdle Eastern ….like another terror attack in Europe might be the catalyst. Iran seems spooked that Israel caught them red handed and has been precision bombing the crap out of them …perhaps on behalf of Trump. They may strike back to change the narrative. Or…..Trudeau might John n front line soldiers in Mali…..ya right.

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The views expressed are those of the author, Garth Turner, a Raymond James Financial Advisor, and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd. It is provided as a general source of information only and should not be considered to be personal investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Investors considering any investment should consult with their Investment Advisor to ensure that it is suitable for the investor's circumstances and risk tolerance before making any investment decision. The information contained in this blog was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete. Raymond James Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.