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Opinion: Get ready, the Windows era is over

"The combined market presence and experience of these three companies could
spell doom for the Microsoft monopoly," The headlines rang out, but were
they talking about the recent AOL/Netscape/Sun deal or the historic
Apple/Motorola/IBM deal that begat the ill-fated PowerPC?

Well both, actually. And like the PowerPC deal, the recent AOL buyout of
Netscape (with a little Sun on the side) will do nothing--absolutely
nothing--to harm Windows in the foreseeable future. That is, Internet
Explorer will still beat Netscape Navigator in the browser wars. AOL can't
stop that from happening. The problem is, it won't matter. Because AOL has
found the solution to Windows, and eventually this little corporate
takeover will stumble on the key to beating Windows.

And it has nothing to do with Netscape, or Web browsers. Or personal
computers. Or servers. Or operating systems. Or any market that Microsoft
currently has a foothold in. You see, the future of computing has nothing
to do with "computers" at all; it's about "computing devices" that are
seamlessly integrated into our homes and just about virtually every single
device we use on a daily basis: The phone, the television, the radio, even
the wall of the living room (which will become the TV when we want it to).
Do you think this is far fetched, or at least still years away?

Think again.

Or, as Apple says, "think different." Not that Apple stands a chance in
this brave new world. Apple is still fighting yesterday's battle, the
battle for the desktop operating system. Guys, that war is over. Windows
not only won the war, but it will also be the last one standing, on a
bloody hill with fallen competitors laying at its feet. The only problem is
that Windows will be all alone, the last dying remains of a once-powerful
PC world, as forgotten as CP/M. The times are changing and personal
computers are going mainstream: Soon they won't be "computers" anymore.
Meanwhile, over at Apple, they're working on a next generation PC desktop
operating system, seemingly oblivious that no one cares anymore.

Microsoft, at least, has a vague understanding of what's happening. Its
Windows CE operating system was developed specifically to work with non-PC
devices, and as of today, the first Windows CE-based home console unit is
now available in Japan. It's called the Dreamcast, and it's a 128-bit
competitor to Nintendo 64 and Sony Playstation that runs DirectX games with
hardware accelerated 3D. It also has Internet connectivity and works off of
your huge television in the living room, not that little beige box you hide
in the office. It's the first step toward the integrated "Web lifestyle"
Bill Gates talks about.

Not that Microsoft has the future well in hand, and this is where AOL and
Sun come in. You see, Windows CE has a huge problem: It looks and works
like Windows. In the short term, this will be seen as a benefit, but the
reality is that there are far more people out there with no PC experience
than there are people with PC experience. For the integrated future I'm
discussing to really take off, the tools we use are going to have to be a
lot simpler than Windows CE, which is itself a lot simpler than Windows.
Windows, like other PC user interfaces, is not up to the task.

It's not simple enough.

And AOL agrees with me. They're going to use Java technology to bring the
Internet to a variety of devices, all the devices I've discussed, and more
I can't even imagine yet. They're going to work at creating an integrated
Web lifestyle for everyone in this country and the world. Ultimately, they
may not be the ones that succeed, but it is going to happen. Who knows,
maybe Microsoft may even grab a piece of the pie and we'll see a future
that mirrors the early 1980's, where a variety of clients and operating
systems compete against each other. I doubt it: For the integrated future
to work, the "client" has to be a seamless, faceless commodity. And
Microsoft isn't interested in a commodity, only a monopoly, where they can
make the most money. Maybe they'll just create their wonderful apps for
this future system and walk away from client OSes all together. On the
back-end, companies with the infrastructure--AOL and Sun, right now--are
ideally situated to take control, leaving Microsoft in the dust. Sure,
there will always be a business for servers and Microsoft--with its
competitors such as Linux, Oracle, and the like--will be able to make money
on that business for some time to come.

But the future of personal computers is a future *without* personal
computers. It's a future without Windows and it's certainly a future
without the Macintosh. I see a day where a spinning graphical envelope
appears silently in the lower-right corner of the wall-based TV screen
during a football game, alerting me that I have email. I will choose to
open the mail in another screen, in a picture-in-picture window, or on that
very screen (perhaps during a commercial). It will be a video email, of
course. And as the family gathers 'round to get in on the video reply, I'll
know that this day came a lot quicker than we thought it might.

The best part of this future world is that Windows will have nothing to do
with it. Absolutely nothing. I'll bore my kids with stories about the
computers that used to crash all the time, and they'll tell me that the
Apple II computer I've saved from the trash is virtually identical to the
Pentium II 450 I bought in the late 1990's.

And they'll be right. The PC--like the Apple II now--is a dinosaur from an
earlier age, once the master of the world. And AOL is now working on the
technological equivalent of a meteor, which they'll use to end the age of
the PC forever.