Emmys: Who should win vs. who will win

Julie Bowen, left, and Ty Burrell in a scene from "Modern Family." Bowen is nominated for best supporting actress in a comedy series for her role as Claire Dunphy. The Academy of Television Arts & Sciences' Emmy ceremony will be hosted by Neil Patrick Harris. It will air Sept. 22 on CBS. THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

By LYNN ELBER AND FRAZIER MOOREAP Television Writers

Published: September 21, 2013

Emmy Awards crystal-ball gazing was so much easier in the old days, circa the last few years: ABC's "Modern Family" would be honored as best comedy series and a cable show, "Homeland" or "Mad Men" or such, would win best drama.

"Modern Family" may earn its fourth consecutive trophy at Sunday's ceremony. But the drama picture is murkier because of Netflix's "House of Cards," the first online program to be nominated for top series honors under a 2007 Emmy rule allowing digital contenders.

It's as big a revolution as the 1993 best comedy series nod for HBO's "The Larry Sanders Show," which came after the TV academy opened its arms to cable as well as broadcast fare.

"We didn't believe it would take as long as six years-plus for the world to start looking to this new explosion of original content," said Rob Barnett, who moved his career from cable (MTV, VH1) to online as founder and CEO of My Damn Channel. "But it's clearly happening."

Whether "House of Cards" will actually claim the trophy is another matter. It took more than a decade before a cable show, HBO's "Sex and the City," prevailed as a top series winner; in an impatient world, might "House of Cards" compress the time frame?

Or it is possible that astute Emmy voters smacked their foreheads, realized they had yet to crown AMC's "Breaking Bad" as TV's best drama and made amends?

They should have, we say in unison. Here's what else we're predicting for the 8 p.m. EDT ceremony on CBS hosted by Neil Patrick Harris – who, no Ouija board needed, will be reliably outstanding.

DRAMA SERIES:LYNN ELBERShould win: "Breaking Bad." At the height of its power, and Walter White knows where you live. Will win: "House of Cards." Ambitious politician trumps ambitious drug dealer in Washington-bedazzled Hollywood.FRAZIER MOOREShould win: "Breaking Bad." TV's best drama has never won!Will win: "Breaking Bad." With hysteria building in its final year, it's going to cook up a win this time.

COMEDY SERIES:ELBERShould win: "Louie." Life can be brutal, but also brutally funny in Louis C.K.'s hands.Will win: "Modern Family." It's comfortably amusing and academy voters like it, they really like it.MOOREShould win: "Louie." This groundbreaking comedy has continued to, well, break ground.Will win: "Modern Family." Habits are hard for Emmy to break.

ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES:ELBERShould win: Jon Hamm, "Mad Men." Don Draper finally confronts his pain and what he's done to others. Hamm's trophy is even more overdue.Will win: Kevin Spacey, "House of Cards." Take that, movies! TV is better than ever, and honoring a visiting big-screen star drives the point home.MOOREShould win: Jon Hamm, "Mad Men." Besides all the other reasons, his Hershey bar meditation clenched it.Will win: Kevin Spacey, "House of Cards." High-profile star in a high-profile series on a high-profile new channel.

ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES:ELBERShould win: Kerry Washington, "Scandal." A powerhouse performance that keeps the madcap series spinning but not out of control.Will win: Kerry Washington, "Scandal." Don't overthink what will be an unprecedented African-American victory; she simply deserves it.MOOREShould win: Kerry Washington, "Scandal." Great work propelling an outrageously compelling show.Will win: Kerry Washington, "Scandal." Emmy voters get it, and so will Kerry.

ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES:ELBERShould win: Don Cheadle, "House of Lies." There was a reason for his upset Golden Globe victory over Alec Baldwin and other past winners.Will win: Louis C.K. The sad clown made irresistible.MOOREShould win: Matt LeBlanc, "Episodes." He plays himself, and then some, and does it winningly.Will win: Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory." Three bids and two statues the past five seasons, but it's been since 2011 since he last won. Too long?

ACTRESS, COMEDY SERIES:ELBERShould win: Laura Dern, "Enlightened." If you're looking for layered humanity in any character, she's your woman.Will win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep." She wears power and the lunacy of ambition well. Elaine who?MOOREShould win: Laura Dern, "Enlightened." Few viewers watched the show and it's been axed, but her performance was perfection.Will win: Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation." She's forged a character that's the bullet train of the little engine that could.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY SERIES:ELBERShould win: Jane Krakowski, "30 Rock." She never let down her side as the role model for self-involved TV stars, and Emmy shouldn't let her down.Will win: Julie Bowen, "Modern Family." A two-time consecutive winner for her beleaguered mom. Voters will be charmed again.

MOORE

Should win: Jane Krakowski, "30 Rock." A sexy, multi-talented comedic treasure so far overlooked, her fourth nomination as Jenna ought to be the charm.Will win: Sofia Vergara, "Modern Family." Her fourth nomination as Gloria will be the charm.Online:http://www.emmys.org