Tropical Cyclone 14S (Freddy) Expected to Weaken

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Freddy), located approximately 525 nautical miles west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia, has tracked west-southwestward at 13 knots over the past 6 hours.

The system is tracking toward a weakness in the low to mid-level subtropical steering ridge induced by a midlatitude shortwave to the Southwest.

Generally west-southwestward motion will continue through the forecast period as the subtropical ridge remains the dominant steering influence.

Persistent easterly vertical wind shear and passage over cooler water are weakening the system.

Shear is expected to remain unfavorably high as along-track sea surface temperatures drop during the next 36 hours. Therefore, the maximum sustained wind speed is expected to fall below the 35 knot warning threshold by TAU 36.