I have a report of Yupik fishermen from Alaska going through 'boiling water in every direction' in September. This is proof of methane runaway on top of the open ocean effect runaway we were and are in. IPCC and others do not want their funding to dry up until the end, so are ultra conservative. Various countries just quit reporting methane and Barrow data was cut off at 2K ppm apparently by orders from further up. It should subside in a month when it is dark all day long up there. http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others ... -research/ Next year will see greater releases, maybe Dr. Natalia Shakhova's 50 GT 'burp'. Some don't think there will be that large burp, but a continuous boiling release increasing exponentially until thermal max. It is most likely that by 2020 the temperature in the N hemisphere will be going up at 1*C per year, or close to it. Looks like this year will be .34*F above the record of 2015 which was up .25*F from 2014 from 2010's 4*C per 100 years. Do the math, Dingo, it is exponential right now. We are in a methane turnover extinction event worse than the Permian in speed. I do not like it one bit. It will hit 105*F here at 8,880' in ten years. The forest will be dead or burned around me, and if there is wind, we will be burned out.

_________________"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

_________________"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

2017; major fires and crop losses with attendant large food price rise2018; more major fires continuing with even larger crop losses and large areas of wet bulb heat deaths, starvation in many areas, war and strife continues as the world economy begins the final crumble2019; continuing major fires and wet bulb events even more, extreme crop failures, collapsing population, economy, civilization and governments2020 all Arctic Ice gone year around, very rapid heat buildup >pole to pole lagging 2 1/2 years<, people living in caves and underground to escape the heat anomalies and continuing fires everywhere there are burnables2021 continued mass death and fires as clouds build up,on to the last man dying on the surface 20262028.7 all surface life dead2034 +12*C total cloud cover, methane replacing O2 50% or more, acidic atmosphere2080 thermal max +14.2*C continuous storms for at least 50K years and cloud cover starting to break up with cool down 100K years, 2 million years to evolve new surface life

This is what humans have done, killed all the kittens and puppies, flowers and trees. Pray for Divine Intervention, or chant "Uturuncu, Yellowstone, Campi Flegrei", over and over.

_________________"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

Got some big heat coming(Phoenix) and happening (Spain)and happened(Pakistan). 79*F here at 8,880' 39*N 12 years here and nothing ever really happened to change all the bad consequences of overpopulation. AGW to CAGW to a worse than Permian Event. I talked of Yellowstone before as a possible savior. It will take that and Campi Flegrei, also awakening, or Uturuncu, awakening. Error on the side of too big an aerosol event would put us right into the ice age we are in perfect astrophysical position for. Too small, and the CO2 heat trapping remelts the Arctic to runaway again. If successful, there is still mass death and a population bottleneck, but at least no 99.9% extinction event. If the survivors work hard, they might have the place cleaned up in time for the next interglacial epoch.

_________________"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

_________________"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

_________________"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

_________________"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

_________________"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

The methane maps from orbit in 2014 were mostly yellow, and by a year and a half ago had turned to mostly red, and now we are entering a lot of high methane pink and up about 400ppb. The Blue Ocean Event will be 2020 or 21, and without a cap of ice there are thousands of gigatons of methane that will release to the atmosphere. Latent heat will build fast. Temperature will go up at one degree per year until it reaches a maximum with 100% cloud cover plus 25*F from pre-industrial. On the way, about half way, almost all life will be dead on the surface. If we factor in things that did not happen during the Permian Great Dying, and the speed we think happened then and now, we can get a better idea. We have so much radoactive material that was not a factor then. I have harbored the idea of an impact into clathrate beds as possible, since subducted, for the speed and high extinction rate. It seems that humans are even faster, I suppose depending on how you look at it and from what distance in time. I think that we are looking at a more complete ELE with a similar several million years to get rid of radioactivity and re-evolve plant then animal life. Maybe intelligent life again in a similar 250 million years. They will discover us and figure out what happened, maybe like us, just when it is happening again in a cycle of methane being a forerunner molecule for life and being its destroyer. All we can do is fight for reducing everything and trying to stop this phemomenon. The aerosol event idea is so fraught with doubts that I think the best thing to do with our fight is to pray to our creator for Divine Intervention. It can do no harm. The worst possible thing I could ever imagine is a worse than Permian methane turnover event and its 100,000 years of continuous thousands of storms in a radiated world of lightning flashed blackness, and a white globe shining, from the outside.

_________________"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

It will be interesting what the difference is between 2016 and 2017. 2010 was 4 times PETM. Since, has been exponential. This year appears a lttle cooler, but we won't know until all the data is in. It seems a jump and step process rather than a smooth line exponential. We'll see.

_________________"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

This last one shows a no ice condition late summer Arctic 2022 and "Blue Ocean Event" 2021. The first 50GT methane hydrate blowout from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) should be at one of these two times. After which the added blanketing effect will let out more and more methane as the region goes up in heat, spreading south at a rate that will cover the globe in about 2 years. This will cause the global average to go up at about 1*F per year until thermal maximum is reached with 100% humidity and cloud cover with continuus storms and all life except extremophiles and bacteria gone for millions of years. There may be an aerosol event attempt with nuclear bombs which may or may not lead to a bottleneck and recovery. The chances are not more than 50/50, and require CO2 removal from the atmosphere with thousands of CO2 to carbonate factories and thousands of drones replanting human removed forest to over 3 trillion trees added to the 3.1 trillion existing trees that will go dormant for the required global winter period.

_________________"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

_________________"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

_________________"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

Disappearance of the sea ice north of Greenland is important in this regard. The image on the right shows that most sea ice at the end of August 2018 was less than 1 meter thick.

The image below shows how the sea ice has been thinning recently north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, an area once covered with the thickest multi-year sea ice. Disappearance of sea ice from this area indicates that we're close to or beyond the latent heat tipping point, i.e. the point where further ocean heat can no longer be consumed by the process of melting the sea ice.

[ The once-thickest sea ice has gone - click on images to enlarge ]The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. Without sea ice, additional ocean heat will have to go somewhere else. https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/0 ... event.html

_________________"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein