Report: Phillies Will Make Push For Hamels

UPDATE, 6:13 am Friday: Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports that a source says the Phillies will make a “sizable offer” to Hamels to see if they can keep him around for now and the future.

Reports have mentioned previously that the Phillies know it will cost them upwards of $24 million per season, but the sticking point is in the guaranteed years. Hamels, and agent John Boggs, is seeking six or seven years while the Phillies seem to be in the four-to-five year range.

If anything, this is good news that the Phillies understand the importance of locking up their prized left arm. But at what point does it become too long a contract for a pitcher?

(update by Pat Gallen)

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Buster Olney filled in as host of Mike and Mike in the Morning on ESPN Radio this morning and spoke at length about the Cole Hamels situation. Olney has written about Hamels frequently this year, as he is a homegrown ace on a team built around pitching who may prove too costly for the Phillies as a result of other expensive personnel decisions.

The Phils and Hamels may be closing in on an extension.

He has championed the idea of Hamels pitching for the Dodgers next year, as Magic Johnson and the new ownership group will look to make a splash.

However, according to Olney, the Phillies are in the process of making a big push on a lucrative extension that will keep Hamels in Philadelphia for the foreseeable future.

Olney believes that the Phillies are likely preparing a final extension offer to present to Hamels and agent John Boggs. Though Hamels has mentioned a desire to test free agency, he has made it clear that the Phillies are his first choice. He has stated in recent interviews that he would give the Phillies the last shot to sign him if he does reach free agency and receive other offers, and that the same would hold true even if he were traded this season.

If the Phillies and Hamels can’t reach an agreement in the next 72 hours, Olney believes that Amaro will pick up the phone and begin to pursue trade opportunities. We’ll know more about his future over the next few days. Tomorrow, we’ll take an in-depth look at what a long-term extension with Hamels would mean for the rest of the roster over the next few seasons.

I’m sure if we can’t sign him, 99% of fans will blame Amaro and the Phillies. Truth is, if he turns down the extension Amaro presents, it will be because he’s intrigued about being a free-agent and wants to find out how other teams value him. Take Pujols for example…the Cardinals offered him over 200 million to try to keep him, but still were outbidded and rightfully refused to match. Sometimes you can’t write a blank check to a player.

It would be RAJ’s fault. You use the Cardinals and Pujols as an example and really its the perfect example for my case. The Cards thought they could get a hometown discount and that Pujols wanted to be a Cardinal for life and i dont think, even with as great as Albert is, they thought he was worth what he got. With all those factors, the Cardinals decided to wait till after to the season to try and work something out with Pujols, when in all reality, they should have made the offer to him a year or 2 earlier and i think he would have taken their offer. Its a lot harder to turn down all that cash when u dont have free agency and and handful of other teams bottomless bank accounts staring you in the face.
If the Phils and more importantly Ruben were aggressive in this situation, which they should have been and at the latest made an offer to Cole after last season, we arent in this spot. And on top of everything if u would have signed him last winter or during the season last year u would most likely be saving in the area of 20-30 million and maybe a year or 2 less on the contract. there is nobody to blame besides RAJ for this almost no win situation. And when he said in spring training that Cole wouldnt get Cliff Lee money and wasnt worth that he dropped the ball even more bc we all know he is worth that money and that he will easily get it somewhere. This is all 100% on Ruben Amaro and it should be a check against him either way bc if he does sign he cost a salary strapped team a few mill more a year for more years that would have been necesary and if he doesnt sign him he lets a home grown, top tier, LEFTHANDED allstar/cy young calliber SP walk out of your locker room. On the list of recent mistakes the GM has made, and it is growing pretty rapidly, this is 100% on the top of that list, and people need to not forget about it.

True that. Need to sign this guy; he (not Roy H. or Cliff) is the anchor of the rotation for the next 5 years. Figure out a way to pay for it in the off-season. Otherwise we’re waiting for May, Biddle or Rodriguez to develop and that may or may never happen.

Is there anyone else that thinks everything Olney,Stark,Heyman et al., break as insider news is just pure logic?

So, Buster Olney predicts the Phils will make a final offer in the next 72 hours and if turned down will look to move him. Logically, when would they make the final offer? July 29th? No, they have to have time to work out a trade, and they have to have the information that tells them a trade is necessary. That info comes from Hamels and his agent. Geez I wish someone would pay me to do what Olney does. I don’t know, maybe I’m wrong, but it seems like we’ve been talking about this forever.

Ok, let’s hope this works! Five plus one is what I’d give (five guaranteed, sixth year option) and the inclusion of an option for a contract extension is rare. Yes, Cole would get offers from the Dodgers, Yankees and Phillies similar to Cliff’s offers when he tested the market, but an extension of five years is typical for pitchers. Rube made mistakes with contracts before and it’s made this situation complicated. Im not saying this would be a bad contract extension (i.e. Howard) – this signing will not turn into Howard: I do predict Cole to have a down year within this extension (mostly due to injury post-30) but fangraphs will analyze this and I anticipate the Phillies getting surplus value for the contract despite the down year and a gradual decline past 32 years of age.

Here’s my breakdown: $20MM (2013), $25MM (2014), $27MM (2015), $28-30MM (2016), $21-23MM (2017) and the 2018 vesting option would be worth $20-22MM. The option vests if Hamels pitches 225 innings in at least 29 starts without ending the season on the DL (or receives top five in Cy Young Voting) in 2017 AND he throws either 610 innings over his last three (3) years OR 420 innings over his last (2) two years. A $10MM buyout will be paid if the option doesn’t vest and Hamels doesn’t accept arbitration if offered. Awards package and no-trade protection would be included along with other approved bonuses (I wish they’d allow milestone bonuses).

Olney may think he’s posing legitimate ideas, and others may think he’s being logical, but I think it’s all basically just hooey. Amaro has most likely already talked with other teams about potential deals, so a trade could happen even just a few minutes before the deadline, if it’s deemed necessary and if the return is deemed better than draft picks. He probably has a bit more than 72 hours to negotiate an extension.

That’s true. In the same vein, it also make sense that there is no final extension offer to prepare as reported, it’s also locked in and ready to go to. Both sides have been at this long enough to know what each other wants.

I don’t think there is a specific final extension, but my feeling is that both sides know what the other wants, and now is the time for negotiations to come to a head. Each side knows what the other wants, and they are either going to work it out or not. And if they still aren’t close after this weekend, what makes them think they will be during the offseason. At that point, you will most likely get a package for Hamels better than draft picks if he were to walk. So there isn’t a final extension offer or anything like that, but now is the time to really decide if they’re going to sign him or trade him. If I’m the Phillies, I come at him with a really good offer, perhaps less than what he could get on the market, but lucrative enough that he would forego free agency.

I agree with you Eric S… but what’s your guess? I guess Cole is asking for 7 guaranteed (which is highly likely he could get in FA) and the Phillies were initially at 4. A “really good offer, perhaps less than what he could get on the market, but lucrative enough that he would forego free agency” would be… what? 6 guaranteed? 5 with a vesting option? Phillies should definitely be able to go there…

Manny — I could see them potentially doing something creative, like a 5-yr, $120 million contract with an easy vesting 6th-yr option, but an opt-out clause after 3 yrs, so that if he’s still elite or even better, he could opt out and renegotiate. Or otherwise, he’s at least got the comfort of 6/145 or something like that.

I don’t think it’s quite the same. Basically, in free agent negotiations, the two sides probably know what each is after, but there are usually a whole bunch of pesky details, and sometimes those take even longer than the basics. Sometimes, unfortunately, it can be those details which derail the whole thing.

Trades are a little different, usually. Maybe a little bit of haggling, but both sides go in pretty much knowing which players, or choice of players, are going to be included. That’s why most trades happen pretty quickly, or fall apart pretty quickly.

Also, I thought Gelb brought up an interesting point too, that Pence with a year left may bring back more value than Hamels would. I guess the return depends on whether Hamels (if traded) would go to a team that really believes they can sign him.

This is from his piece-
“That’s what makes Pence’s situation intriguing. He is under team control for 2013 and will make close to $15 million through the arbitration process. A year ago, when Houston dealt him to Philadelphia, the Astros received three quality prospects in return. His value would not be as high with one less year of control, but he might have the most of any Phillies trade chip – even Hamels. Maybe he could land a major-league-ready third baseman or outfielder.”

George, you’re absolutely right that those are differences between now and later. However, my understanding of the situation is that the Phillies want to have the broad strokes knocked out by this weekend. And if the sides can agree on the overall scope of the deal, then they can spend the next week or two hammering home particulars. Whereas if it seems they are far apart, then the focus shifts to trading him.

Lefty — I’m not so sure Pence would net more. In fact, I actually doubt he could net more. He is a non-elite corner outfielder who will make $12-$13 million next season. And a Seidnote here — while I’m always one to evaluate trades more on their merit at the time of the deal, not using Pence for 2013 would make the original deal for him feel even more lopsided.

How is Hamels overated ? . . . . . By almost any measure, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball ……if you want to say that you wouldn’t offer any pitcher more than 5 years/$100 M, I understand that, but that’s a different arguement …. I can’t agree with your stance that Hamels is overated though

We have to keep Hamels for two big reasons…1) he’s obviously one of the best lefties in the game, but more importantly 2) it will continue to attract other free agents by showing that despite this down season that the team is still committed to winning and staying among the league’s elite!!