It’s time once again for me to dust off my crystal ball and attempt (often in vain) to predict who the winners & losers of the season will be Most of you are probably familiar with the power rankings, but if you aren’t, here’s a quick run-down: I do a power ranking after each performance show that ranks the couples from most likely to stay to most likely to go home – it’s essentially a prediction of who’s going home and who’s got staying power. And kids, please – keep in mind that it’s not based solely on scores, or popularity, or running order, etc. It’s a complex formula of many factors – fanbase, dance ability, entertainment value, choreography, scores, yadda yadda yadda. And before the season starts, I like to do a “preliminary” ranking – a prediction that just takes into account what we know about the couples right now, without ever having seen them dance live (rehearsal videos don’t count – those can differ drastically from the final product!). Make sense? Keep in mind that this is just my opinion – differing ones are welcome and great to discuss, and there are no right or wrong answers 😉 So let’s start with places 12 through 7 – the couples that I don’t see lasting past the midpoint of the season.

12.) Ron Artest & Peta Murgatroyd – I really want Peta to stick around for at least a few weeks this season to show us what she can do, but unfortunately, I’ve got a lot of reservations about Ron…and it kinda stinks that Peta’s so new that her fanbase is likely not going to be able to compensate for a lack of support on Ron’s behalf. First of all, the physical problem: Ron’s 6’7″ and Peta’s 5’7″, so even with heels on, Peta’s gonna have quite a bit of height to make up for. It’s not impossible (ask Cheryl, who at 5’4″ partnered 6’7″ Rick Fox somewhat effectively in season 11), but it’s not necessarily easy or visually-pleasing, either. Ron’s an athlete, so that might help a bit – but not all of the athletes that have done the show have been natural movers (Clyde Drexler comes to mind). Now the greyer area: Ron’s never been one to hold his tongue, and he’s infamous for rather erratic behavior. He’s come a long way since the infamous Pacers/Pistons brawl, but he’s still kinda wacky…and I’m honestly not sure whether that’s a boon or a burden when it comes to fanbase. He’s well-known, but I’m interested to see how many people he’s turned off with his antics. Another potential problem: from the few videos I’ve seen of he & Peta so far, I’m not picking up a lot of chemistry. I get this feeling this could be a rather awkward pair to watch interact. On top of that, I’ve been hearing murmurings that Ron has been showing up considerably late for practice, and has only wanted to practice for an hour or so at a time. A lack of commitment this early in the season? Sounds like a harbinger of doom to me. I really want Peta to stick around, and I’m hoping Ron proves me wrong…but I’m just not optimistic.

11.) Chynna Phillips & Tony Dovolani – My biggest concern about these two is not dance skill or chemistry – I’m just afraid they’re going to fade into the woodwork. As I mentioned in another post, Chynna & Tony are the couple I always find myself forgetting when thinking of all the couples this season – and we all know that being unmemorable on this show is the kiss of death. I think they’re physically a very well-matched couple – both very attractive, and they look good together – but even their promo photos for this season looked rather bland to me. I even think Chynna could be a halfway-decent dancer – and yet I’m still afraid people are going to forget about them. Chynna’s been out of the spotlight for awhile now, and unfortunately it seems like Tony has shown a pattern of having celebs that are good dancers but don’t make much of an impact. Audrina was actually pretty damn good, and more current than Chynna – but she still couldn’t last past the midpoint of the competition. If Chynna really is a good dancer (and I do think she has the potential to be good), I think she & Tony are really going to have to focus on making themselves stand out in a sea of big personalities this season – and they need to start with getting more press for themselves. There seem to be fewer interviews and media spots about these two, compared to other couples – and getting their names on viewers lips before the show starts is crucial. If they can manage to separate themselves from the pack, I think she could last awhile like Jane Seymour – but if they don’t, I could see them being an early exit, a la Kathy Ireland. Time will tell.

10.) Rob Kardashian & Cheryl Burke – I know Rob says he’s gonna stay in the competition longer than his sister did, but judging from his behavior so far, I’m not sure I think he’s got the juice to last past week 3. The big red flag for me: the fact that he keeps reminding us that his mom made him do the show this season. That, to me, says “I’m only here because my mom kept hounding me – I don’t really WANT to be here.” And I really think that the stars have to be self-motivated in order to do well on this show – the pros can only do so much to light a fire under an unmotivated partner…look at poor Tony with Kate. Or Jonathan with Macy Gray. And sorry kids, but I just don’t see Cheryl as the nurturing, “Oh Rob, you’re doing so great, just give it one more try…pleeeeeease!” type – she seems more like the type to kick Rob’s ass and tell him to suck it up As for potential dance ability, athleticism, & fanbase – meh, I’ve never really seen Rob do much more than bob his head to the beat in VIP at a club or swim in sister Khloe’s pool on Keeping Up with the Kardashians, and while the Kardashians may have “a ton of twitter followers” and “lots of fans of their show” – that fanbase didn’t seem to translate to votes for Kim on DWTS, and I daresay she’s more popular than her brother. So in other words – Cheryl may have her work cut out for her. And it’s only because of Cheryl that I have Rob lasting until week 3 – she’s arguably the most popular female pro on the show this season, and does have a good track record of taking her partners farther than anyone expected. If there’s anyone that can shape Rob into a dancer – it’s Cheryl.

9.) Chaz Bono & Lacey Schwimmer – Quite possibly the most “buzzed about” contestant this season, I think Chaz actually has an advantage in having a bit of controversy surrounding his participation in the show – controversy can keep a contestant memorable and can keep people voting in order to see what they do next. I can’t think of a season where they most controversial contestant went home first – Kate Gosselin, Tom DeLay, Lance Bass, Bristol Palin, & Steve-O all managed to last at least a few weeks into the competition – and none of the above were fantastic dancers, either. That said, I think Chaz has 2 rather large hurdles to overcome this season: his weight & public opinion. Chaz is admittedly overweight, and likely still getting used to the changes in muscle & fat distribution in his body – learning to dance will probably help him, but moving gracefully might be a work-in-progress. And obviously, there seems to be a very vocal part of the viewing audience that objects to Chaz’s participation in the show – or society as a whole. That could be the biggest obstacle Chaz has to contend with – somehow endearing himself to a portion of the viewing audience that might not be ready to accept someone who has made life choices that aren’t necessarily “the norm”. How much of the viewing audience feels that way? I’m not sure – but I do feel as though viewers have gotten increasingly open-minded about contestants, and may grow to like Chaz. Luckily, I think he has an advantage in having Lacey – if there’s anyone that can prove that “bending the rules” can work in your favor sometimes, it’s her. And likewise, if there’s anyone that can help Chaz to feel more comfortable and open up to America…it’s her

8.) Carson Kressley & Anna Trebunskaya – Not gonna lie – I’m so excited to see what these two have in store for us this season 😀 If their animated interaction on GMA was any indicator of what’s to come, these two are going to be a HOOT to watch this season! That said, I think Carson may be all personality and not so much dance skill – he seems like he’s the eternal jokester & the life of the party, so I wonder how much he’s going to be able to buckle-down and really try and focus on learning the dances. Luckily, Anna seems like the pro who knows best how to balance dancing with having fun, so hopefully she can keep him on-point. My other big concern is Carson’s lack of experience with the ladies, as he admitted himself…it could put him at odds with more romantic dances like the rumba & Argentine tango. He’ll also likely have to contend with the same portion of the viewing audience that objects to Chaz’ participation, due to his sexuality. His advantages? He seems wildly popular with the middle-aged female demographic, who have likely caught him on Queer Eye & True Beauty. And he does have a bit of an athletic background – he’s allegedly a seasoned equestrian. And perhaps best of all – who can better design a costume than Carson? Calling it right now – he & Anna will be the best-dressed couple of the season. 😉

7.) Nancy Grace & Tristan Macmanus – Some of may you may be muttering “She’s nuts if she thinks this is gonna happen!” right now, but hear me out – I really think Nancy is going to pleasantly surprise a lot of people this season. She stood out to me at the cast announcement as one of the celebs that was really & truly excited to be on the show this season…and I think that alone could be a huge advantage in this competition, just like I think not wanting to be there is a huge disadvantage. All the interviews I’ve seen of Nancy have been quite endearing – she’s excited, she seems to get along really well with Tristan, and she’s got the right attitude about the competition: she’s not afraid to laugh at herself if she falls on her ass She almost reminds me of Kirstie last season, the way she’s been able to joke around & have fun. I think she’ll also have the advantage of support from the mommy population – she gushes about her twins, and is definitely the “fierce mother” type, the way she has taken a victims’ rights stance in many child kidnapping cases. And as much as some may hate her, I think an equal number love her – she may have the same polarizing appeal that Kate Gosselin & Bristol both had…except Nancy may actually be a bit more palatable, personality-wise. Disadvantages? She’s a 51-year-old mom without any athletic background, and she’s got a new pro without much of an established fanbase to help with votes. But really & truly – I think she’s got more staying power than people think. Probably not enough to outlast better dancers, but at least enough to make it to the midpoint of the season, methinks.

So there’s the bottom half of my pack. What do you guys think? Who do you think will be the first to go, and who do you think could surprise us and last longer in the competition? Tune in later this week when I reveal my predictions for the top half of the pack, the finalists, and the winner!

Ultrasound sales specialist by day, semi-knowledgeable DWTS fan by night...with a smattering of hair & makeup enthusiast, occasional model, and crazy cat lady peppered in to make things REALLY interesting ;-) I might pee my pants in happiness if Donnie Wahlberg ever does DWTS - or if they ever use "Sunglasses at Night" as a paso doble. Check out some of my other work at pureamericasgottalent.com!

67 responses to "DWTS13 Preliminary Power Rankings, Part I"

I see absolutely nothing to argue with you about here, Court. *g* Terrific job, as always!

I do wonder, however, if David Arquette might be in this group instead of Carson, Chaz or Nancy. I just watched him on Ellen yesterday and oh boy, he irritates me. *LOL* It’s his um… laugh… which sounds more like a creepy giggle to me. I think the Arquettes are an acquired taste and I’m wondering if the DWTS viewers are going to be attuned to it.

Wow, you are scaring me putting Peta and Ron last? I hate to see them go first and I will be sad if it happens.

Like you, I am worried on Chynna and Tony too being they haven’t hardly done any PR in preparation for Monday night. Every day I find myself saying, why haven’t Tony and Chynna done any interviews yet? Hopefully, in the next couple of days we are going to see a big push for them, but, I’m starting to have my doubts?

Anyway, great post. I love that you put Tristan and Nancy at #7. I hope they are going to stick around a while.

Courtney, I think you may be dead on with a few of these. Granted, in my mind, I have Rob and Cheryl going home first, and to be completely honest, I don’t know that Nancy and Tristan will last that long based on fan base. I’m thinking week 3-4. But then, she could be really good, so we’ll see.

I agree about Carson and Anna. When I heard he was doing the show, I admit that I squealed with glee. I adore him, and can’t wait to see the interaction between him and Anna.

I had to giggle a bit at your summary of Ron because when my mom asked who he was, I said, “Remember a few years back when the brawl broke out at the basketball game and the player jumped into the stands and started punching fans? That’s him.” Her immediate response was, “Oh, yeah, I remember him.” But, like you said, he’s come a long way since then, so we’ll see.

Most of all, I just hope that the new pros get a fair shake and at least last a few weeks in the competition and that the not-so-good dancing stars get weeded out early on. As a fan of the show, I’m much more interested in seeing someone who’s not a dancer become one, despite my loyalty to certain pros.

Love these power rankings! Fun to read. Big fan of the show and fairly new to this site–so glad I found it! My only change would be listing Ricki and Derek as one of the first to go home. I really like her but I’m not overly impressed with her WOW factor in the clips I’ve seen. Combing that with Derek’s lack of fanbase, I just don’t see them lasting very long. Want to see Hope and Maks win it all!

@Evaine – I don’t want to get too much into it here, because I go into detail about it in my next post, but one thing I think David has going for him is that he’s got no shame – he isn’t afraid to look like a total doofus on national television. I think he’s gonna throw himself into this 110%…since he has absolutely nothing else going on.

@Magnolia – I toyed with putting Rob & Cheryl last, but methinks that there may just be enough Kardashian fans to keep these guys afloat for a week or two…plus Cheryl’s fans seem pretty devoted. In the first few weeks, the points spread is usually pretty close, so nobody really needs a slew of votes to overcome a bad score. It really separates the men from the boys, so to speak – take Mike’s elimination last season, for instance. He only needed a handful of votes to catch up to Wendy, points-wise, and it didn’t happen…likely due to fanbase. That’s why the first few eliminations are always so telling…it’s really a testament to how big someone’s fanbase really is. And it’s also why that first elimination stings so much – it really is the battle of the fanbases.

And yeah, it sucks, but there’s always gonna be a first elim – someone’s gotta go. And I guess you’ve just gotta hope that it’s someone you’re not terribly attached to.

LOL…and speaking of Ron’s b-ball brawl back in the day…a lot of people in the Hoosier state still blame Ron for the decline of the Pacers into a crummy team 😛

Errr, Shelley…no offense, but what makes you think Derek has no fanbase? I think 3 MBT’s is an indicator that at least a few folks dig him 😉 I think he & Maks are likely tied for the title of most popular pro. As for Ricki – she may not be impressive in the dance department, but she’s got a pretty formidable fanbase from her talkshow days. I wouldn’t get your hopes up that they leave early – especially since there’s some much less well-known celebs this season that will likely struggle with fanbase. I do hope to see Maks & Hope go far this season too, though – as long as Hope puts in the effort and has a good attitude.

Vog,
Really?? That’s SO surprisng. His personality bothers all my friends that watch the show. I switched jobs this summer and most co-workers at BOTH jobs say the same thing. They think he’s over the top and enjoys the camera a little too much (especially in the interview room with Brooke). I think they would all say he’s a great teacher and choreographer though–can’t argue that!! It’s interesting to hear all sides!

@Shelley – It’s both interesting and a little unfortunate, but it seems like a lot of fans are either on Team Derek or Team Maks – and if you’re on one, odds are you really can’t stand the other. A lot of the things your coworkers say about Derek are also things I’ve heard Derek fans say about Maks…it’s an interesting rivalry. Personally, I like both (although both have pissed me off a few times, hehe), and the only pro that really gets on my nerves consistently is Mark But I do think Derek & Maks likely have the biggest fanbases on the show…which could also explain why their fans have the biggest rivalry. Of the ladies, I’d say Cheryl & Kym are probably the most popular – and I think any celeb that has any of these 4 as their partner likely has a bit of an edge because of it. Most fans will vote hard for their favorite week after week, regardless of whether they like their partner or not – and the bigger their fanbase, the better!

Shellee, interesting about your co-workers. My two co-workers love Derek to death. He is their clear favorite. Though when they heard Ricki was his partner, both didn’t like the idea.

My Dad (who is a big fan to the show) loves Cheryl and Derek the most. But, when he heard of their new partners, he said, “Who are they?” But, he will be there every step of the way with his phone and my Mom’s cell phone voting for both Cheryl and Derek all the way. lol

Like you and Court, I’m hoping Maks and Hope will go far too. I love Derek, Tristan, Val, and Peta as well.

I understand what you mean about the rivalry. I can see it because Derek and Maks are both so different! Mark and Derek are a lot alike to me, which is probably why they’re besties. Their similar personality traits come through in this setting. I can go either way with Mark, sometimes I can take him, sometimes I can’t. I heart Tony, and it saddens me that his fanbase isn’t as big just because he’s quieter and not as flashy as Maks, Derek or Mark. I think that’s why Derek stays so long….a lot of his fans are young girls who LOVE to create numerous e-mail accounts and text their butt off! Tony’s fans are more reserved and may vote, but don’t go crazy with it.

You let me worry about what’s in my cabinent, Shellee, and you worry about what’s in yours. Courtney and Vogue actually treated you like you were serious and earnest in your comments – I’m alot more skeptical and you’re proving me right. I mean, really – if you can say none of your friends like Derek and that means he’s not popular, I can say exactly the same about Maks, right??

You couldn’t be more wrong about Derek’s fanbase OR his similarities to Mark – but since you’re a Maks fan, you will see everything through that lense.

I’m actually a Tony fan and am rooting for Maks because he’s partnered with Hope…am a huger soccer fan. I look forward to possibly reading this site but will certainly not be commenting again. I hope not all new readers will be treated this way.

Power Rankings are one of my favorite postsI! Thanks for putting these together every week Courtney! Just out of curiosity – do you keep track of how often you correctly predict who will be eliminated?

Fun read! I’m a huge Tony fan, and I’m also worried Chynna will suffer the same fate as Audrina (ie. lacking a fan base and not being memorable enough). I’m rather annoyed there haven’t been any interviews with them on the entertainment shows. Hopefully there will be some before Monday!

Great job on the power rankings. I found Nancy’s position interesting-I honestly think Chaz will be able to outlast her. I don’t want Chynna and Tony going so soon, but you might be right about the lack of buzz. Can’t wait to see the top six and how you rank them.

Hip-Hip Hooray! Power ranking time, that means the season is getting closer…

Agree with most of the rankings, however I think Chaz may leave early, as early as week 1 or 2 unfortunately. Love the part about Cheryl, I remember Chris Jericho saying he was afraid of her…. I actually believed him!! She would be one tough cookie.

I don’t know about Chaz, Sandy. I think there will be lots of support for him and we’ve had Warren, Kirstie, Marissa, Niecy just to name a few who many thought would not be good or thought they’d be “early exits” due to their weight and look how far they made it.

Courtney, LOVE that your Power Rankings are back! Only 5 days away!!!!

Thank, Courtney! Love the power ratings. I’m hoping that Nancy will stick around to #7 where you placed her. I’m thinking Chynna might stay longer than Rob, but that’s only based on ability, not fan base.

Shellee, there’s is nothing similar about Derek and Mark anymore. And believe me, Derek has many loyal fans who are not young girls.

I think Ron might go a little bit further because he’s an athlete. Athletes do very well on DWTS. I know Peta hardly has a fanbase but while I don’t know how far Ron will go, I have a feeling he’ll past 1st week.

I’m surprised that Rob is put in 10th. I know that in the media, they’ve said that Rob is kinda goofing around and Cheryl is “fed up” but Cheryl have a huge fanbase. Rob is from the Kardashians, a very popular family with a popular reality show so many may remember him. He might not deserve to stick around because of his dancing skills but the fanbase of the Kardashians might keep him for a short while. Maybe halfway through the competition before that. So maybe not 10th but more like 7th or 6th. Just guessing.

Wow, I think Chaz is going to go way farther! lol. He’s really not that bad based on what I saw in his sneak peek of the first rehearsal and with the major buzz going on with him and Cher’s fanbase. He may at least make the semi-finals.

I honestly don’t think Nancy will go that far. I would kinda switch her and Rob although Nancy might make it further than the 10th place. Maybe 9th? I’m sure a lot of older women might find her inspirational and look at her as another Kirstie Alley but I also think she’s kinda controversial and isn’t too likeable because of the way she talks…. or maybe yells at her guests lol. I might be wrong, I don’t know.

Can’t wait for the second half and let me just say that I’m glad you didn’t put David and Kym in this part of your list!

@Evaine, you’re right, David’s laugh is a little bit weird but I’ve heard many different laughs. Some are actually funny but I don’t know about his. Made me think of Margaret Cho on some news right after David H was eliminated when she and Louis said they were gonna do the Jive. OMG, her laughing got me laughing hysterically, it was so funny!!!!

@Margaret, yeah, you’d think David wouldn’t take the judges seriously because of his personality, right? But I think he might take their comments seriously based on what Kym has been saying about how hard David has been working.

@Shelle, Derek is extremely popular and have a very large fanbase. He’s got over 100,000 twitter followers and many people watch DWTS just to see him. That’s why there was a lot of buzz when Derek took last season off to be in a movie. When is that movie supposed to come out, by the way?

@Courtney, oops you already said that the Kardashians have a lot of fans that might pull Rob through. I was reading one post and responding to one at a time lol. Just wanted to be sure I responded to everyone I wanted to talk to! I also agree, David isn’t afraid to make fun of himself. All the clothings he’s got on and having Kym put on as well (omg what is he doing to poor Kym? lol) and talking to the photo of the mirror ball trophy. I thought it was funny and I was wondering why he was talking to a taller woman! lol. I also think Ricki could make the finals. Kym already has 2 trophies in America and 1 in Australia so she also has 3 trophies. Wouldn’t it be interesting to see Kym and Derek in the final 2, both going for the 4th trophy??

@Sandy, LMAO! Chris Jericho, WWE champion afraid of Cheryl Burke? I didn’t know that but I thought that was funny.

Welcome Shellee! So interesting to see how mileage varies between people. I agree that it seems many people favor either Derek or Maks, but Derek and Maks are my two favorite male pros and I can’t tell which one I like more. And Tristan will probably join those two if his choreography and teaching are as good as his dancing and accent… 😛

As for the power rankings, I’m with ya. I’d love it if Carson was really good, that would just be so awesome. 😀

@Bruce – Now that you mentioned Elisabetta I had already forgotten her and Val, so thats not a good sign. I can not see them lasting much further than the midpoint of the competition. I think its going to be an all-male final, David and JR. Just my opinion though.

Love the rankings! I think Kristen is a big question mark (ugh awful unintentional pun). She’s pleasant in interviews but not really overwhelmingly appealing. Not sure. I could see her being in this group and giving Nancy, Chaz or Carson a ticket to the top 6 or placing as high as 4th. Unfortunately for Cheryl, Peta and Tony I totally agree that Chyna, Rob and Ron are the first 3 to go. =(

reading Shellee’s post..i felt a little bit like i was in a parallel universe..to quote Tom Bergeron..because here in my universe, Derek Hough has a pretty big fanbase, and the days when he was making beginner’ mistakes are long gone. now, he’s focused on training, choreographing and …winning. but maybe, that’s just me…and btw, i am in Germany, so i put a lot of work on staying connected to the show, to the news and voting. To reach people across the world, not only USA …it’s not an easy thing.

I consider myself a new DWTS fan. I started watching last season after being at home sick and seeing Maks dance. There’ was something about him that got me hooked

Little by little, I started reading blogs and tweets and I came across PURE DWTS. So far I’ve been very impressed with the comments, predictions, information, etc. I think everyone who posts here is entitled to their opinion and everyone is free to make a comment. Whether you agree or not, it is up to you. I think Princess Heidi, Courtney, and Voguerista have always been very polite to all who post. I don’t always agree with the comments, but it is THEIR opinion. I enjoy reading each post, I share it with my friends and coworkers, and they enjoy it as well.

On that note, I want to thank you for posting the Power Rankings. I agree with the order of elimination. I watched Ron Artest on Jimmy Kimmel few days ago and he really annoyed me. He jokes all the time. Can’t picture him concentrating on the dance floor. I was hoping to see Kristin Cavallari on this list, but I think she will have a big MTV/Disney fan base voting for her.

So far, of course, I want Maks to win or at least make it far in the competition.

Love these power rankings, Courtney, and look forward to them every week during the show.

I agree with most of your rankings .. and assessments.

I initially (my rankings shortly after pairings were announced) had Rob and Ron going home 1st and 2nd (not necessarily in that order). I haven’t seen anything to change my mind much. Rob annoys the hell out of me .. don’t ask me why, not sure I can put my finger on it, but the way he comes across in every interview I’ve seen posted here – arrogance? entitlement? He needs a good kick in the pants, and Cheryl is just the girl to do it! And maybe it’s the mean kitty in me – I would so love for him NOT to best his sister Kim. So Rob, how lame would that be, huh? Ron doesn’t seem to be into this gig too much, and that’s usually the kiss of death. It’s a shame for Peta. The height difference is also going to play into this, as you mentioned Courtney. I think that’s the reason for that awful title shoot pose of theirs – Peta trying to minimize the size diff. She was also not comfortable hanging on Ron like a sack of potatoes during that move in the video where she flings her arms around his neck and he drags her backwards.
I had thought Chynna might make it to 8th place, but not so sure anymore that she can take it that far. I have a feeling that she’ll do well in the ballroom, but so much in the Latin. Something about that matronly dress and her pose with Tony in the title shoot photo …. I’m thinking she goes 10th. I had Chaz pegged for 9th, but given the outpouring of support for him, his delightfully charming personality and the fact that he appears to be able to Cha Cha .. all add up to a somewhat extended stay IMO. Not sure he’ll make it to the top half yet, but I’m guessing he’ll come close.
Nancy is another one that may or may not make it into the top half … I like everything I’ve seen so far from team MacGrace. I bet she and/or Chaz can make it into the top 6 because ……

Of course, I have been known to be completely wrong about these things. Not often, mind you …. only about 100 times, but who’s counting, right ? Monday night is going to be a big night in my house! Woo Hoo.

Kym’s third trophy doesn’t really apply, IMO – different celebs, different audience, different judges, different pros. Who knows what their rules are like.

As for the kardashians, Kim is way more popular than her brother and she was third one eliminated. Unless he is a much better dancer, I don’t see him doing any better. There’s also been plenty of athletes eliminated very early – not all are created equal.

Derek’s movie is probably June in the US, maybe spring in Asia. Something like that. Hard to say since they get shuffled all the time.

As for Derek fans versus maks fans – I basically disagree. I don’t know many Derek fans who don’t like maks or consider them rivals ( far too different to be rivals plus Derek has nothing to prove), but I don’t think maks fans can say the same. The only time I didn’t like maks and gave him a ton of shit was when he was partnered with Erin, who was just a beyotch. I think most Derek fans are probably ambivalent at worst. Of course, to some that is a cardinal sin.

I think it will either be Rob or Chynna to go first. Guess it depends on who dances better and appeals to the voters.

Someone mentioned Elisabetta. While she isn’t well known in the US except for being a certain someone’s ex girlfriend, I think she and Val have a lot of chemistry together going for them. Or, at least they are a striking couple. No, not doing a showmance for them. 😀 But to the finals? Not until I have seen them dance.

Look how surprised we get every season when someone we didn’t expect to be good, was good enough to make it to at least the final four.

Grea t post Courtney! I tend to agree with your choices although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rob go first. Can’t wait for part 2. I’m gonna guess you’ll pick David to take it all. Hint? Please? No? Darn it!

Plus JR looks very good in all the rehearsal videos we’ve seen. Yep, I think Karina may end up hoisting the MBT with her partner this season, but I’m hoping they’re going to have some stiff competition.

One thing to take into account for the rankings, and it’s something that DOES matter significantly, but we won’t see until Monday…. The Carrie Ann Affect….. (effect?) anyway, each season, CA chooses one or two men that she decides to Crush on, and it doesn’t matter how they dance, those scores are going to be slightly inflated on her end…. And, at the same time, she will compensate for playing favorites, by finding a couple of celebrities (usually female) to judge harsher.

I think once America sees JR’s package, his dance ability which seems somewhat evident in clips, that coupled with his likeability and positivity, and his partnership with Karina seems the perfect fit, it will be his MBT to lose. Carrie Ann is a sucker for a contestant just like JR, I can see her having a full-on JR Season 13 crush. I know America will. I think JR is the one to beat and unless he breaks a leg or something, he will take home the trophy.. And thats fine by me.

I so look forward to the power rankings every season. Have to say I agree with your rankings Courtney. Can’t wait for part 2. Heidi- I have this feeling too that she will pick JR for the MBT. With all the clips I have seen, he has the entire package going for him and America do love war heroes. I’m curious where she places Ricki. The clips I’ve seen and the vibe/chemistry she has with Derek has been great.

I know everyone is citing this “huge” fanbase that the Kardashians have as a reason why Rob will stay longer than expected, but I feel as though I have to point out again that that same “huge” fanbase didn’t really come through for Kim when she was on DWTS…so what would change to make them suddenly start voting in droves for Rob? Yes, the Kardashians have a lot of fans. But how many of those same fans can be bothered to tune into DWTS, let alone vote? And vote for a Kardashian that’s not really at the forefront of their reality show? I don’t think you can really argue that the real stars of Keeping up with the Kardashians are Kim, Kourtney, Khloe, & to a lesser degree, their mom. Most of the action revolves around them and what they’re doing – granted, Bruce, their younger sisters, and their boyfriends/baby daddies/husbands do turn up to interact with them, but the main premise of the show seems to stick to following those core 4. Rob is really just “that guy” lurking in the background, sleeping in till all hours of the morning, raiding the fridge, swimming in the pool, hitting on his sisters’ friends, making the occassional funny comment, and generally being a mooch & a putz. He’s like the Kato Kaelin of the Kardashians – really just a glorified houseguest. I can’t imagine that the average KUWK viewer would power vote on DWTS for a relatively minor character on their show 😛 And keep in mind, the only reason Kim probably didn’t leave earlier on her season was due partly to Mark’s fanbase, and also the fact that the 2 people eliminated before her were a really bad dancer with a fanbase that didn’t overlap the main demographic of DWTS (Jeff Ross) and a relative unknown with a new pro without the fanbase to help him much (Ted McGinley). Unless Rob turns out to be a PHENOMENAL dancer (doubtful) and some other couples really shoot themselves in the foot, I don’t see him lasting past week 3.

As for JR – I’m rooting for him, but I’m interested to see how he influences voting behavior. We really don’t have much of a precedent for someone like him on the show – the closest thing we’ve had to a “war hero” was Buzz Aldrin, and he didn’t last long…then again, he was also a terrible dancer. I think JR might actually be quite good. He’s also a bit of an unknown (he’s this season’s “Who?”) with a pro whose fanbase is debatable (I think she’s got a decent number of fans, but others argue that she’s hated by a lot of people). I think the finale is going to come down to whether people are voting for celebs vs. voting for their favorite pros. However, going along with what Lori said, I think JR has the potential to be one of Carrie Ann’s “chosen ones” this season, so that could give him a bit of an edge. It shall be interesting, indeed 😉

I rarely take into account what fans on the internet say with regards to “hated” versus “loved”. This show is watched by 24 million people a week. The internet fans are the proverbial needle in the huge audience hay stack. I don’t think you can win this show without having the average viewer behind you and by getting decent scores. If JR is the audience darling I’m inclined to think he will be, how the internet fans feel about Karina won’t matter at all. Unless of course the general audience “hates” her – and I don’t see any evidence of that at all.

That’s not to say having a popular pro doesn’t help – it absolutely does help and can push one over the edge in a tight race. But how often do people actually spend a good deal of time voting so that someone else doesn’t win?? I would bet that those numbers are very small. You don’t vote people OFF this show, you vote for people to stay, so if there are people out to get Karina they would have to vote for someone else.

Well, was Kim K’s fanbase huge when she came on season 7? I had never heard of the Kardiashians when she came on then until after she was eliminated.

As for JR, you never know what happens. Suddenly I think about Ralph and how amazing he was in the promo and I thought, “he’s gonna make the finals.” He didn’t. Plus, JR has Karina who isn’t that much of a favorite with many fans. Oh I just realized Ralph had Karina too! Well, I don’t think she had that much to do with Ralph not making the finals. When I saw Kyle in the first dance, I thought he’d make the finals and he did. You never know about those contestants.

Perhaps Karina’s image was softened by her protectiveness toward Ralph in the face of the judges’ harshness, and will be even more so as she is seen to be comfortable and having fun dancing with JR.

Regarding Rob & Cheryl – there is a good video at robkardashian.net in which Cheryl states unequivocally that the reports of her being p*ssed at him are untrue, that he has been at practice every day and knows all his steps; and they say they’ve known each other since childhood and are very comfortable together.

We may not know exactly where Karina stands with regard to fanbase, but let’s say that JR’s a good dancer, and audience darling, and makes it to the finale…along with two couples with a powerhouse pro in them, say Hope & Maks and Ricki & Derek. Is Karina’s fanbase going to be able to compete with Maks & Derek’s? I’m guessing not. So then is JR’s appeal going to be great enough that it will either get enough non-voters (either viewers that were voting for someone else that has been voted off already, or people that haven’t voted at all) to vote for him to overcome the pro fanbase deficit, or even sway some typical Derek or Maks voters to vote for JR instead? That’s what really interests me – how many people are strictly voting for their favorite pro vs. how many people are voting for a specific celebrity. How much a pro, independent of teaching/choreographing skill, can intrinsically influence their partner’s placement – just based on who they are – that’s what I’m curious about. Granted, there’s no way there will ever be a scientifically sound way to measure this, short of having Celeb X dance the exact same routines and get the exact same scores with Pro A & Pro B against the same set of control celebs & pro partners both times, and observe the difference in outcome. Being that I have yet to figure out how to bend the fabric of spacetime, I’m not holding my breath for an answer anytime soon 😉

And Liz, the Kardashian’s popularity in 2008 vs. now would have little effect on voting, methinks, because the viewing demographics of KUWK vs. DWTS are still misaligned. KUWK typically scores highest amongst the female 18-34 set – aka the “golden demographic”. DWTS has always done best amongst the female 34-50+ set , and total viewership for DWTS is much, much higher than KUWK – so it’s safe to assume that the biggest chunk of the DWTS audience is middle-aged women, and they far outnumber any of the younger ladies who watch both KUWK and DWTS. I’m sure the network higher-ups at ABC would LOVE to nab that younger demographic (and they’ve likely tried by casting popular younger celebs like Kyle & Chelsea), but they have yet to really make and impact there. So even if a signifcant chunk to the KUWK audience was watching DWTS, AND was motivated to vote for Rob, they’d likely still be pommeled by the older voters…so if Rob wants to stick around longer than a few weeks, he can’t rely solely on Kardashian fans. He (just like any other celeb) is going to have to appeal to the average DWTS viewer…and in this case, it’s likely not someone that already watches KUWK.

And as for Cheryl’s denial of there being anything wrong between she & Rob, I just have to say this: PR. Not calling anyone a liar, but if there was any sort of conflict going on between them (or any of the other couples, mind you), do you really think it would be prudent for them to voice it to the public right now? Or even later on in the competition, if they’re still around? I don’t think so. I think it’s in all the couples’ best interests to appear like they get along great, work together well, and are making good progress while they’re on the show – I don’t see too many viewers getting excited and voting for a couple that is admittedly not doing well and isn’t making the effort. If something was amiss, I sincerely doubt they’d let us know…their best bet would be to act as if everything was hunky-dorey to the press. Like I said, I’m not calling Cheryl a liar – but I also wouldn’t take anything she or any of the other celebs/pros/judges/hosts/etc. say at this point to be 100% fact, either.

Courtney – I’m completely new to all this reality TV stuff, but I’ve watched most of the dances in all of the DWTS seasons on YouTube and I’ve seen how the “packages” are manipulated by TPTB. I suspect that the online mags like TMZ, E!, Extra, Access, etc. are playing along with the DWTS producers’ story-lines, too. The video at Rob’s site hasn’t been shown anywhere else that I’ve seen (admittedly, my menu is mostly limited to what is linked here!), maybe because it doesn’t fit his image as a slacker or of Cheryl being unhappy with her partner.

I don’t really have any pre-conceived notions about ANY of the celebs because I haven’t watched TV for many years. They’re all new to me .. the only ones I’d even heard of were Nancy & Ricki .. so I’m prepared to like them all and excited to see who can dance!

#2 Kristin might fly under the radar like Chelsea did. Plus, Pia & Mark are split up now, so how perfect for him to be able to work a showmance into the mix–fans love to keep voting for a couple who are falling for each other lol.

#3 I hope I’m wrong, but Miss Solo doesn’t look like she’s got what it takes ….yet. Hopefully fans pull her through until she’s polished enough. I notice Adrian has been coming to the dance rehearsals…:(

@Courtney – Another powerhouse pro that should be included on your list is Kym. Never underestimate her winning the whole thing. I personally am not worried about Maks this season, I don’t have a feeling that Hope will get him to the finals, and sorry to say, I don’t think Ricki can get Derek there, maybe the semifinals, but I think she will fall short of the finals. I love Derek but I myself am not a big fan of Ricki.

I do think military personnel that have never voted will be voting in droves. So I do think people that have never voted will be doing so. As far as my voting, I have my favorite pros, however, if I am not excited about their pairing and another pair grabs at my heartstrings and I find myself rooting for them, then they are the ones that I support. I vote for whom I feel is deserving for whatever reasons. Thats just me though.

Sandy, I agree with you about Ricki. I do think Derek will take Ricki far so that’s why I think Courtney is right to not put her in between #12 and #7. My best guess? Probably the semi-finals or 5th place. Derek is amazing and has always gone really far in the competition except for season 6. I thought he and Shannon were great then but I think their last confession is what got them the boot so I don’t think their elimination had anything to do with their dance. It was like an “oops, what have I done?” kind of thing.

Lots of people in the services will be voting for JR, I think. We have mostly women watching DWTS but with JR in, I wonder if we’ll have more men watching now.

You’re right about Kym. Don’t underrestimate her. David might surprise us. I know he’s quite a bit controversial with his personal problems and now his most recent interview with Howard and that interview may or may not mean trouble for him. He admitted on twitter that when he goes on the Howard Stern, he always get in trouble lol.

The ONLY reason, IMO, that Ralph didn’t make the finals was the Winner Take All Cha Cha. There’s no question in my mind that’s the only reason. Dude had a fanbase.

As for Rob – Courtney’s got it exactly right in terms of fanbase. And in terms of Cheryl. Cheryl is a professional – you would likely have to torture her to get the truth out of her in regard to Rob. Hell, even Maks in all his blunt glory is not going to diss his partner before the season starts.

I think that Derek and Shannon’s blow up as the reason for their elimination is one more internet myth that’s taken on a life of it’s own. Shannon was not that great a dancer, just watch any of her latin – but if people are going to believe the other myth of “Derek always gets the dancers” then they have to find another reason to explain their departure.

PLUS the judges had an inexplicable love for Marissa Jaret Winokur. I still can’t figure that one out. Add in that Kristi was amazing, Cristian and Jason were hot and pretty decent dancers, and Mario (minor ringer) was a great dancer and Shannon is the most likely to leave in that scenario. I just re-watched that entire season not long ago (from start to finish, results shows and all) and every other word out of Derek and Shannon’s mouth was “We’re sorry”. I just don’t think it had that big of an impact for anyone other than the squeaky wheels on the internet.

Come to think of it, J, I think you’re right. I mean, we had Ralph, Hines, Chelsea and Kirstie left. Steeler Nation is huge so a lot of people voted for Hines. Kirstie has a huge fanbase so it had to be between Ralph and Chelsea. Chelsea didn’t have a large fanbase like Ralph did so it had to be that WTA challenge that got Chelsea into the finals instead of Ralph. Hopefully they won’t do that challenge again this season. A lot of people didn’t like that idea. They didn’t like Bristol going into the finals but they didn’t like the WTA either! lol. I don’t know if I told you guys this but I wasn’t at all surprised that Brandy was eliminated instead of Bristol. When it was down to Brandy and Bristol, I knew Brandy was out. Sure, Bristol’s scores helped her but she apparently had a lot of support since she was very controversial. It takes both the scores and the votes to keep a couple in. A lot of Brandy’s fans blamed her elimination on the judges. The ratings were very high that season.

[…] google_ad_width = 300; google_ad_height = 250; Tweet So we had some good discussion over part I of my rankings, where I predicted the couples who wouldn’t make it past the halfway point of the show. Now […]