October 14, 2006

Addendum to Sprint to the Finish

In Sprint to the Finish, I found the election picture nowhere near as bleak as does Power Line. But I neglected to add one more interesting twist to this already fascinating series of contests.

Keep your eyes on California and Florida!

We have a governor's race here between incumbent Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic challenger Phil Angelides; in Florida, the race is between Republican Charlie Crist and Democrat Jim Davis;

At first, both looked as if they would be close races; but now, Angelides and Davis are far behind and it looks like a foregone conclusion that Arnold will be handily reelected in Cah-lee-for-nee-ah and Crist breeze to the governor's mansion in Florida;

In fact, Daniel Weintraub of the Sacramento Bee-blog California Insider reports that the unions in the Golden state have stopped giving Angelides money... not because they don't like him anymore, but because they consider it, in Weintraub's words, a "suicide mission;"

Without this money, Angelides is not only unlikely to close the gap with Schwarzenegger, he may very well plummet further in the polls;

All of the above can have a major effect on the downticket races -- including races for the U.S. House -- as dispirited Democrats turn out in smaller numbers than expected;

California and Florida... maybe it's something in the oranges?

I don't believe there were any California Republican seats on the endangered list; and California is one of the most heavily gerrymandered states in the country. But there may still be marginal Democratic seats that could surprisingly switch to the GOP. Even one or two such could spell the difference between holding the House and losing it to the Democrats.

Alas, I can find no comprehensive list of polling in California's 53 congressional districts.

In Florida, lower Democratic turnout may help retain the Foley seat (Florida 16, contested by Joe Negron), a possible Democratic pickup where the Democrat (Tim Mahoney) has a small lead, and ensure that Katherine Harris' seat (Florida 13, contested by Vern Buchanan) doesn't go to Democrat Christine Jennings (who leads slightly), staying with the GOP.

But let's turn also to what many call the "gold standard" of election projections... the website called, efficiently enough, ElectionProjection.com.

They "project" that the Democrats pick up six seats in the Senate to take control (I'm counting Lieberman as a Democrat, since he will surely caucus with them); but you have to read between the lions a bit: when they "project" a pick up, they count every race where a Democrat currently leads... including those with very small leads.

Of the six projected "pickups," half of them are listed as "Weak DEM Gain," which means the Democrat is ahead by less than 5%. Thus, for this projection to come true, Democrats would have to win every last toss-up race where they are currently ahead.

Of course, it's also true that there are Republican holds are listed as weak; or rather, there is one: Virginia. I believe that Republican Sen. George Allen will retain his seat -- there hasn't been a single recent poll showing James Webb in the lead, and the current Real Clear Politics average is Allen +4.6.

Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez is also listed as a "Weak DEM Hold," but I think it's a lot weaker than George Allen's (Menendez's average lead is only 3.9%); thus, it's a good bet (though not a sure thing) that Allen holds and Menendez is knocked off by Republican Tom Kean, jr. Combine that with a loss of one of the three "Weak DEM Gain" projections, and the Dems would only pickup a net 4 in the Senate. If two of the three weak Democratic gains remain in GOP hands, it's only a net pickup of 3.

Over on the House side, Election Projection currently only shows a net Democratic pickup (same as the raw, since they don't project any GOP pickups) of 13 seats; but again, many of those -- 9 of the 13 -- are weak. However, in this case, there are also 16 weak Republican holds and 5 weak Democratic holds.

I typically treat those as 50-50 races, in which case we get a net Democratic pickup of 14, rather than 13. Still, that's just barely enough for the GOP to hold the House... with a 219-216 majority (with 435 House seats total, 218 is the smallest majority). Katherine Harris' seat (Buchanan) is one of the weak GOP holds, and Mark Foley's seat (Negron) is one of the weak Democratic pickups; the lopsided Florida governor's race could favorably affect both of these.

This is dicey, of course; I very much hope that the polling trend continues, with the Foley follies continuing to exeunt stage left, and national security, terrorism, North Korea, lower gasoline and heating prices, and the robust economy seizing center stage. (I'm still amazed that the Foley imbroglio has helped the Democrats at all: after all, if your big fear is that gay congressmen might have sex scandals with the pages, the solution cannot possibly be to elect more Democrats!)

So again, right at the moment, a realistic projection has the GOP retaining both houses, albeit by the narrowest margin in recent history in the House of Representatives. But with even a small breeze at the Republican's back (fading Foley, rising seriousness), the House margin should be significantly improved. Especially if there are any surprises arising from the California and Florida gubernatorial blowouts.

Hatched by Dafydd on this day, October 14, 2006, at the time of 4:00 PM

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Comments

The following hissed in response by: bill

The Miami Herald, big Democrat liberal newspaper has been expressing alarm with a panic story almost weekly that the Democrat turnout could be extremely low across Florida. In the primary the turnout was 2:1 Republican to Democrat, hardly any Democrats showed in some precincts. They site lack of interest from their voters. Harris could win if the Democrats don't show, as now is looking likely.

I doubt the whole premise that the Republicans will lose the House and Senate, after all, we have seen this polling before, Kerry by 6, wasn't it, and look he is leading in the exit polls by 5, then ...

The above hissed in response by: bill at October 14, 2006 4:40 PM

The following hissed in response by: Jim,MtnViewCA,USA

Recent news story has a last-minute "leak" about an FBI investigation of Rep Curt Weldon. Isn't he the guy that pushed to learn more about the data-mining project Able Danger? It would be a shame to learn he is being targetted for trying to cut through the fog.
Regarding CA, only one data point but here in NorCal my many liberal Dem friends are not crowing about the election and frankly don't seem very interested.

The above hissed in response by: Jim,MtnViewCA,USA at October 14, 2006 5:12 PM

I sure do hope your projections are correct. If only the Foleygate matter hadn't happened, or at least Dennis Haster had resigned as Speaker of the House, I believe that the Republicans would would be in a much better postion than they are right now.

The above hissed in response by: 777denny at October 14, 2006 11:17 PM

I sure do hope your projections are correct. If only the Foleygate matter hadn't happened, or at least Dennis Haster had resigned as Speaker of the House, I believe that the Republicans would would be in a much better postion than they are right now.

The above hissed in response by: 777denny at October 14, 2006 11:17 PM

Most of Republican unpopularity can be traced to them not doing what they said they would do(immigration, the budget, entitlements),while Democratic unpopularity can be traced to them saying what they would do if they get power.

If you can follow that.

So Democrats, right now, are self-limiting.

The above hissed in response by: Big D at October 16, 2006 9:31 AM

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