^ Thanks, yes I know what a hub is, usually a transportation term, but also very important economically. I just failed to see the relevance for population, they are just the largest centres, and obviously have the most growth.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stryker

The crazy part is if you do the math, were gonna have a massive economic revival in about 20 years.

You gotta remember what has choked the atlantic provinces, has always been the rural-urban ratios.

Were gonna become very urban very fast, which might give us a great advantage, with ontario and BC, hitting taxation-high cost of living gluts.

^ If the rural populations are all in decline, that also means it's becoming more scattered by definition, so the economic investment return is constantly diminishing which is a drag on the economy. The cities still have a long way to go in growth to offset this.

Disclaimer: due to the revision of last years provincial estimate numbers by StatCan, I expect that they may also revise the CMA estimate numbers when the 2014 numbers are released in early 2015. As such, these numbers are definitely subject to dramatic change, however, I am just working with the numbers that we currently have available. Calgary's growth could be as low as 47 000, and Edmonton's as low as 40 000. Many other CMAs could see similar reductions if they occur at all.

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Strong & free

'My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.' — Jack Layton

Kamloops, Nanaimo and Chillwack are new entries I take it? any other areas that may soon crack the 100k mark?

Yes sir! Kamloops, Nanaimo, Chilliwack, Red Deer, Lethbridge, and Fredericton are on this list. Lethbridge will be the only new CMA in the 2016 census, but by census 2021 all of those listed will be CMAs.

Ones that could potentially become CMAs by 2021 are Belleville, Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, and Drummondville.

EDIT: Oops! I see Franks beat me to it.

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Strong & free

'My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.' — Jack Layton

I think Go Transit and Metrolinx will finally be the shot in the arm that Hamilton needs. It's always been just that little bit too far for people who work in Toronto. With faster trains and better service, it's going to be a game changer. People can live in Hamilton and be in downtown Toronto in a jiffy, or vice versa. In the GTAH, Hamilton easily has the 2nd best downtown. I've considered moving there many times, but always changed my mind due to bad transit connections to Toronto.

Hamilton offers great value compared to Toronto and might start seeing huge bumps in population growth thanks to transit upgrades. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hamilton grow faster than any other CMA in Ontario over the next 30 years. It's a diamond in the rough.

It's just demotivating because people've been more or less saying that for like 10-15 years and nothing. I worry that if Hamilton doesn't pick up it's own game it could get gobbled up by Toronto.

I just did it today. It's pretty easy and quick to come to an approximate average based on two-year patterns. However, as I stated at the bottom of my post, the numbers are subject to dramatic change, as StatCan revised their provincial numbers for last year when they released their official 2014 numbers last week. I expect once they release the 2014 city numbers, they will also revise last year's city numbers, reducing estimated growth across many of the CMAs.

For example, Calgary's growth could be as low as 47 000, but because our StatCan estimate growth last year was 57 000, and the city has stated we experienced record breaking growth again this year(as we did last year), I set our growth at 59 000. So things could get a little screwy. Many CMAs could see reductions in their estimated population growth.

I'm a pretty big nerd

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Strong & free

'My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.' — Jack Layton

As for your population estimates, in french we say : Les années se suivent, mais ne se ressemblent pas ! ( Years follow each other, but are not alike )
So it's pretty hard to exactly tell especially with a boundary change.
But I'm like all of you. I'm so nerd, that I can't stand a year long without making my own population estimates !

I'm personally using another way to calculate a metro area.
Here's how I do it :

Per example , I take Québec city metro area ;

In 2011 (july 1st) the population of the province was 8 007 000
Québec city was : 776 800
So it counted for 9,7015 % of the province

I do it for 2012, 2013 etc... until today.

I think it's a good way to do it, because you can follow a tendency through the years. You can't be SO FAR of the reality when you reach 2014, because you will know that a metro area can't count ( with the same known boundaries ) for 9.7015% one year, and 10.123% another year when the difference is only 0.10 % since last year.

It's just demotivating because people've been more or less saying that for like 10-15 years and nothing. I worry that if Hamilton doesn't pick up it's own game it could get gobbled up by Toronto.

Hamilton got the sh*t knocked out of it with all the factory job losses. Growth in health sciences and other areas has been good, but only managed to absorb the losses. I think most of the blue collar jobs that were in jeopardy have gone already while the new economic drivers continue to blossom.

Hamilton's worst days are behind it. I realize it sounds like a broken record after 30 years of body blows, but how much longer can this possibly carry on? I sense the city is about to rise again.

Red Deer and Lethbridge are already over 100,000 CMA easily. Fort McMurray will probably make the list within 10 years and maybe Grand Prairie too.

Nanaimo and Drummondville will probably be next. Chilliwack maybe in 10 years but I don't think Kamloops will do it. Kamloops already takes in a huge area and the population growth rate is effectively zero. Almost all areas of the BC Interior are experiencing population decline or stagnation. Even once booming Kelowna has seen it's growth fall to a snail's pace. The only area seeing significant growth is the relatively small population area of The Peace.

Nanaimo will be next for BC and eventually Chilliwack but Kamloops may never make it.

As far as Ontario............I don't see anything on the horizon for decades. Belleville/Trenton, Sarnia, and Sault Ste. Marie are the only contenders and none of them are growing.

Sweet, a lot of big milestones this year. Toronto at 6 million is crazy, and I reckon it's only a matter of time before it gobbles up the Oshawa CMA. Oshawa is becoming more and more a suburb of Toronto.

With respect to regional economic hubs, I believe Statistics Canada actually did a study on this (or possibly some other researcher, don't have time to search for the source). Ottawa was actually ranked rather low as a regional hub compared to places like Halifax or Regina.

In many ways London, Sudbury and Thunder Bay are more important regional centres than Ottawa is despite the population difference.