Briefing.com uses cookies to store information on your computer that is essential to making the site work and to customizing the user experience. By using the site, you consent to the placement of these cookies. Read our cookie policy to learn more and how to withdraw your consent.

You must subscribe to access archives older than one year.

Take a free trial of
Briefing In Play® now.

TERMS OF USE

The Briefing.com RSS (really simple syndication) service
is a method by which we offer story headline feeds in XML format
to readers of the Briefing.com web site who use RSS aggregators.
By using Briefing.com’s RSS service you agree to be bound by
these Terms of Use. If you do not agree to the terms and conditions
contained in these Terms of Use, we do not consent to provide
you with an RSS feed and you should not make use of Briefing.com’s
RSS service. The use of the RSS service is also subject to the
terms and conditions of the
Briefing.com Reader Agreement which governs the use
of Briefing.com's entire web site (www.briefing.com)
including all information services. These Terms of Use and the
Briefing.com Reader Agreement may be changed by Briefing.com
at any time without notice.

Use of RSS Feeds:
The Briefing.com RSS service is provided free of charge for
use by individuals, as long as the feeds are used for such individual’s
personal, non-commercial use. Any other uses, including without
limitation the incorporation of advertising into or the placement
of advertising associated with or targeted towards the RSS Content,
are strictly prohibited. You are required to use the RSS feeds
as provided by Briefing.com and you may not edit or modify the
text, content or links supplied by Briefing.com. To acquire
more extensive licensing rights to Briefing.com content please
review this page.

Link to Content Pages:
The RSS service may be used only with those platforms from which
a functional link is made available that, when accessed, takes
the viewer directly to the display of the full article on the
Briefing.com web site. You may not display the RSS content in
a manner that does not permit successful linking to, redirection
to or delivery of the applicable Briefing.com web site page.
You may not insert any intermediate page, “splash” page or any
other content between the RSS link and the applicable Briefing.com
web site page.

Ownership/Attribution:
Briefing.com retains all ownership and other rights in the RSS
content, and any and all Briefing.com logos and trademarks used
in connection with the RSS service. You are required to provide
appropriate attribution to the Briefing.com web site in connection
with your use of the RSS feeds. If you provide this attribution
using a graphic we require you to use the Briefing.com web site
logo that we have incorporated into the Briefing.com RSS feed.

Right to Discontinue Feeds:
Briefing.com reserves the right to discontinue providing any
or all of the RSS feeds at any time and to require you to cease
displaying, distributing or otherwise using any or all of the
RSS feeds for any reason including, without limitation, your
violation of any provision of these Terms of Use or the terms
and conditions of the Briefing.com Reader Agreement. Briefing.com
assumes no liability for any of your activities in connection
with the RSS feeds or for your use of the RSS feeds in connection
with your web site.

The worst retail sales report in nearly ten years triggered a decline in the S&P 500 of exactly 7.3 points, or 0.27%. In other words, that report did almost nothing to upset a market that has surged nearly 400 points, or 16.8%, since its low on December 24.

This market is enjoying an out-of-body experience right now, where it floats above weak data and downward earnings revisions, supported by reports that the U.S. and China are making progress toward a trade agreement -- or at least progress toward an agreement not to make things worse -- and that the Federal Reserve is progressing toward a more dovish-minded policy stance.

It's a meditative practice that has been a calming influence following the volatility of the fourth quarter, yet the duration of the meditative period makes one wonder just how long it can last.

More and more reports are surfacing suggesting the market is overbought, but conversely, more and more reports are also surfacing suggesting the market is still under-owned by fund managers and retail investors who de-risked during the fourth quarter sell-off and have not participated fully in the subsequent rebound.

The latter is a latent catalyst to keep this party going and a trigger for buying on dips that do happen occasionally.

That doesn't make it a sure thing, though; rather, it simply feeds the belief that the prevailing price trend could have some staying power until, well, it doesn't for reasons that have yet to bring the market back to its corporeal form that should look more like a "dad-bod" given the trend in earnings estimates.

Lo and behold, the futures market is sporting a positive bias this morning, bolstered by news that the U.S. and China are working toward a memorandum of understanding regarding trade issues that could become the foundation for an eventual agreement signed by President Trump and President Xi.

Still, it is also being reported that much work is left to do, particularly on the stickiest of issues pertaining to forced technology transfers, enforcement oversight, and China subsidizing domestic industries. Talks will continue next week in Washington, which will indeed be open fully for business after Congress passed a funding resolution that the president has said he would sign.

The emphasis for market participants, nonetheless, is that progress has been made. Alas, it is thought more progress can be made for the major indices.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 34 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 97 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value.

Better-than-feared guidance from semiconductor company NVIDIA (NVDA) has aided the the tone in the futures market. Shares of NVDA are indicated 5.7% higher. PepsiCo (PEP), however, may be most indicative of the tone that has prevailed in the stock market this year.

PepsiCo missed the S&P Capital IQ consensus earnings estimate by a penny and issued FY19 EPS guidance that is below the current consensus estimate, yet its stock, which is up 6.3% from its December 24 low, is indicated 2.3% higher.

Some moves in earnings season are tough to explain, which is why it is euphemistically referred to as the "silly season."

Anyhow, the market has also taken some comfort in this morning's economic reports.

The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey checked in at 8.8 for February (Briefing.com consensus 7.0), up from 3.9 in January. Notably, firms were more optimistic about the six-month outlook, evidenced by a 15-point increase in the index for future business conditions to 32.3.

Separately, the Import-Export Price Indexes for January tracked in a way that should keep the Federal Reserve tracking on its patient-minded path.

Import prices fell 0.5% in January and are down 1.7% over the last 12 months. Excluding fuel, they are down 0.2% over the last 12 months. Export prices declined 0.6% in January and are down 0.2% over the last 12 months. Excluding agricultural products, export prices are also down 0.2% year-over-year.

The futures market moved to its best levels of the morning following the data, which is setting the market up for more levitation at the start of trading.