New poll shows Tillis in lead a month ahead of GOP primary

House Speaker Thom Tillis continues to lead the list of Republican candidates for U.S. Senate, a new poll shows, though a month before the primary election one third of likely voters remain undecided.

The SurveyUSA poll for Time Warner Cable News puts Tillis at 23 percent. His next closest challenger is Greg Brannon at 15 percent. It's essentially a reflection of another recent SurveyUSA poll and fits within other polling numbers.

The margin of error on the latest poll is plus-or-minus 4.8 percent.

The other headline: all Republican candidates beat or tie Democrat Kay Hagan in a hypothetical November matchup among likely voters. Charlotte pastor Mark Harris holds a 4 point edge, the only candidate with a clear lead on Hagan.

The others – Tillis, Brannon, Heather Grant and Ted Alexander – are within the 2.6 percent margin of error on the November ballot question.

More quick takeaways:

• Even with millions in TV advertising, Tillis remains unable to break away and reach closer to the 40 percent threshold to avoid a primary runoff July 15 – a move that would weaken his chances for November. Many voters are not fully engaged yet and Tillis will need to convince them he's the right candidate.

• Brannon, a tea party candidate, apparently has a ceiling of support. In every poll, Brannon has yet to top 15 percent.

• Harris should be safe for the debates. The latest poll gave him 11 percent support.

• The race appears to be a three-man contest. The next two closest are Alexander and Grant at 6 percent. The others get minimal support.

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