BP Chats

If you had to give one name, which prospect do you think has the absolute highest ceiling?(Drew from Arkansas)

I'll give you two - Buxton and Baez. Buxton has the Mike Trout starter kit. If he develops the power, he'll be among the best players in the game. Baez is a mess right now, but remember what he can do. What if Gary Sheffield had been able to remain a shortstop? That's Baez's ceiling. (Jeff Moore)

The ceiling is Gary Sheffield. The floor could be any powerful young player who fails to make adjustments at the major league level once the league sees him the first time around. That's the key. Baez is going to come up and amaze everyone for a little while because he's ridiculously talented. Then the league will get a book on him and pitch him differently. What happens from there will determine his future. If he adjusts back after the league adjusts to him, it's on. (Jeff Moore)

Is it safe to say that, assuming Baez has the better hit tool and Sano has the better power tool, that Baez may be less risky to reach his ceiling because you need the hit tool to tap into the power?(Peter from Chicago)

I'd say that make-up will be the most important factor for reaching a ceiling. On that note, Baez seems to be maturing. I like Baez more than Sano because he's in a better spot on the defensive spectrum, he's got the hit tool, and he's not exactly a power slouch himself. He's a 75 if Sano is an 80. I've said this for a while now: I haven't seen hands as fast as Javy's since Gary Sheffield. (Harry Pavlidis)

I appreciate WAR as a reflective statistic but how is it possible that a player like Vladimir Guererro falls so short in both career AND peak compared to HOF Right Fielders? Yes he was a hacker, but his career OBP is still .379 and OPS .931 with most of his home games in pitcher friendly parks. He was arguably the most feared hitter in the game for a 7 year period, leading the league in intentional walks yet he comes in below guys like Dwight Evans,Reggie Smith, Gary Sheffield and Bobby Bonds. Really?(Scott from LA)

Vlad racked up his numbers in a much more offense-friendly era than the guys you mention (Sheffield excepted - and the two are side-by-side in the JAWS rankings), his defensive value was in the red, he had one really productive season after age 33, and doesn't have *anything* after his age 36 season. It's very tough to get into the Hall of Fame with a resume like that no matter what preceded it; ask Dale Murphy. (Jay Jaffe on the Hall of Fame)

Who's your vote for this generation's Dick Allen? Skill- and attitude-wise, I guess. (James from NY)

Gary Sheffield was a reasonable analogue for Allen, a guy who found controversy multiple times while bouncing from team to team. Milton Bradley is even more controversial, but he can't stay healthy and has been far more self-destructive than Allen ever was. (Jay Jaffe)

Do you see any free agents with solid fantasy value out there? Jermaine Dye, Elijah Dukes, Pedro, am I forgetting somebody?(dangor from New York)

John Smoltz, at least as a reliever, is somebody who can help if he's so inclined, though I guess he's content to go the broadcast route for the moment. A healthy Jarrod Washburn can certainly sponge up a useful number of innings. David Weathers is a handy reliever to have around even at his age. Carlos Delgado might still have something left once he recovers from hip surgery. Gary Sheffield is still a badass who can be a useful bench bat if so inclined, and Joe Crede can pick it at the hot corner if his back is right. (Jay Jaffe)

What's the difference between a pitcher waiting until mid-season to sign and a position player waiting until mid-season to sign? Is it plausible for a guy like Sheffield to not start playing until June or July?(John from NH)

I would say a hitter actually could do it easier than a pitcher. Baseball people will universally tell you that spring training is almost seven weeks long because the pitchers need time to get ready. Most position players tell me they are ready to go by no later three weeks, usually after two weeks. Hence, I'd have to say someone like Gary Sheffield could get ready quicker than someone like Pedro Martinez. (John Perrotto)

What player do you think most increased his HOF chances in 2009? Pettitte, maybe? Thanks.(collins from greenville nc)

Roy Halladay is one that comes to mind, particularly given all the scrutiny his eventual trade provoked and the fact that he winds up with a bigger-market team. Also Gary Sheffield, because in his strong comeback he topped the 500 homer club and probably bought himself another year, or at the very least erased the memory of an ignominious end in Detroit. (Jay Jaffe)

How do scouts typically measure bat speed? Can they just tell or do they look for a hitter's ability to hit mid-90s heat on the inside or up in the zone? (Dillon from Pasadena)

There's not some kind of timed measurement, but you are looking for barrel velocity as well as kind of a pop-time thing where you want to see how quick the bat flies into the hitting zone from the time one starts their swing. You're looking for warning signs like bat wrap, or hitches and triggers, but you also have to accept the fact that sometimes things just work for a guy. Julio Franco had an INSANE bat wrap, but you had no reason to fix it. Hunter Pence has a big ol' hitch, but it works, Gary Sheffield's waggle trigger -- you'd never teach it, but you'd never ask him to change it. (Kevin Goldstein)

Starts Jermey Reed at 1b and Daniel Murphy in LF and Gary Sheffield in RF (go get 'em Carlos!) as Ryan Church sits the bench. Starts Gary Sheffield in RF at bats him 4th. Omir Santos starts again! Sacrifice bunts with no one out and a runner on second IN THE FIRST INNING. Pinch hits for Daniel Murphy with Angel F. Pagan with the bases loaded and one out in the 8th inning down by two. These are all things Jerry Manuel did JUST LAST NIGHT. Was he this bad in Chicago? BTW- Mets didn't score in the first (or ever for that matter.) Pagan grounded into a double play. Sheffield went 0 for 4 and left 4 on base. (Dave from NJ)

He was, and he will be. That the Mets were impressed with him was proof they didn't remember that this was what happened last time around: Manuel aced his interview, says all the right things in a conference room, and then handicapped his ballclub with his fascination with ways of insinuating himself into the ballgame. I know it means something to Mets fans if I label the man "Torborgian," but that's what you're working with, with a dash of braggadocio to spice things up a bit. (Christina Kahrl)

Looking back over 2008, what players do you think cemented their future HOF inductions? What players dented their chances?(Mike from Texas)

I'm a big believer that his first 20-win season put Mike Mussina over the top. Walking away after doing so may be a statement-maker that plays well with the BBWAA electorate down the road, but I don't know that for sure.

On the other hand, Gary Sheffield looks pretty cooked, and while he'll get past 500 homers next year, he's not gonna go much higher than that, and it likely leaves him on the borderline before considering his rather unique collection of baggage. (Jay Jaffe)

Joe, can you think of a way to politely let Jim Leyland know that Gary Sheffield has a fork sticking out of his shoulder and it's time to start giving Marcus Thames 80% of the at-bats at DH before it's too late?(Randy from Ann Arbor, MI)

I think you're half right. I don't see a lot in Marcus Thames' career that says he can play against righthanders with any frequency. This is another spot for that guy we keep talking about--in fact, he'd probably have MORE pennant impact for the Tigers, all things considered, than for any other team, save possibly the Rays. (Joe Sheehan)

Gary Sheffield will or will not revive this season?(Corkedbat from Dallas)

Jump on the Marcus Thames bandwagon! I think even Leyland is drinking that delicious, power filled Kool Aid. A friend in my fantasy league has an away message he puts up occasionally, something along the lines of "Sheff, it's time to retire. Your bat speed already has." (Marc Normandin)

Very quickly, Palmeiro does have the numbers (138.4 career, 68.9 peak, 103.7 JAWS) versus a standard of 138.4/68.9/103.7 for HOF 1Bs.

Sheffield is in trouble in that given his injuries, he's not likely to add much to his numbers (117.2/63.5/90.4) which are a bit short of the Hall standard for RFs (125.0/68.7/96.8).

Vizquel I get asked about rather frequently. I covered this last year (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=332), and since then the distance between him (79.3 overall) and the SS standard (96.6) has actually increased.

Posada has the peak (80.4/62.6/71.5 versus a standard of 98.9/60.8/79.9) and if he can stay healthy I think he's got a shot. But as this year has already shown, staying healthy will present a major challenge as he approaches 40. (Jay Jaffe)

Did the Tigers make bad deals or are the players just underperforming?(tiger fan from MI)

Whatever winds up happening, the Cabrera deal was still way too attractive to them to pass up. I wasn't a fan of having anything to do with Jacque Jones at the time, but at least they've cut bait on that one pretty quickly. Really, the only transaction where I've strongly disagreed with the Tigers is signing Gary Sheffield to a three-year deal last winter. I'd rather have spent that money on a closer, and gotten a Matt Stairs type to play DH if you need one. But all of this is much easier to say in hindsight, and it's still way too early to be writing the Tigers' obituary for this season. (Nate Silver)

Jay,
I was recently talking to a friend about the most "feared" hitters who are not in the Hall of Fame. I know that term was really beaten into the ground this past winter when discussing Jim Rice but still, there are some hitters that strike fear into you--either as a fan or an opposing pitcher. Who was the best and/or "most feared" hitters, in your subjective opinoin (in order): Dave Parker, Dick Allen, Darryl Strawberry, Jim Rice, Gary Sheffield, Edgar Martinez or Albert Belle?(AlexBelth from Bronx, NY)

Yo, Alex! All of the hitters you mention certainly had the fear factor going for them in their prime, but as you say, that's a subjective thing, and subjectivity isn't really the way to go when it comes to sorting them out.

Neither Rice nor Parker had the plate discipline to keep them on the level with the rest of this group, so I'd put the two of them towards the back. Martinez is probably the toughest out, but lacking a bit of raw power relative to the rest of them. I'd put him and Strawberry in the middle. That leaves Allen, Shef, and Belle. Having never seen the former, I'm not sure I can fully grasp the visceral experience of watching him hit, I can only go by the numbers, and his numbers, compiled in an era of lower offense, suggest he was the best. But I'd quake in my boots at facing any of those three. (Jay Jaffe)

Hi, Christina. Who holds the career record for just-foul-almost-HRs? Gary Sheffield?(DaveKavanagh from Dublin, Ireland)

Good question... I have absolutely no idea, but remember Bill James writing about Steve Balboni in this department, but that was probably another bit of his understandable Royals-centrism back in the day. (Christina Kahrl)

Is Sheffield headed for the Hall of Very Good? It doesn't seem like he's made many friends in the media over the years.(Fred from Houston)

Are you kidding? If there's been one consistent facet of Sheffield's career, its that he'll talk to the media and is almost guaranteed to say something that will stir the pot and give the writer some high profile attention. Writers bash Barry Bonds for not cooperating. They don't bash Gary Sheffield for speaking his mind, however ill-considered his words may sometimes be.

From a JAWS standpoint, Sheffield came into the year at 117.2 WARP career, 63.5 peak, 90.4 JAWS, with the average HOF right fielder at 125.0/68.7/96.8. I think he'll be a close call, because right now its not at all clear he can stay healthy enough to pass 500 homers (he's at 481), and there will be some who will hold his involvement in BALCO against him. (Jay Jaffe)

Steven,
Back in the 70s, if the Yanks were in a Rain Delay, Channel 11 would show episodes of The Odd Couple or some such. I miss those days ... don't you?(dianagramr from NYC)

I'm not a big sitcom guy, but The Odd Couple could be very good at times. Channel 11 also introduced me to Star Trek and the Twilight Zone, and, at a much earlier age, the Lone Ranger, Batman, and Superman TV shows. Those last three were shown in a block when I came home from school...

...The Yankees have officially punted on today's game. It will be made up tomorrow night, weather permitting. We'll keep the party going here, because it's still opening day and the Tigers have scored a second run on Gary Sheffield's 1577th career RBI. Only 998 to go! (Steven Goldman)

I heard that the Australian women's crew team canvassed their country for big, tall teenagers and invited them to train as rowers, with good success. Could a high school scout benefit from doing something similar? For example, ask any HS athlete to throw against a radar gun or to take some sort of reaction/visibility test. For all anyone knows, the next Billy Wagner or Gary Sheffield is playing wide receiver or point guard.(havybeaks from Michigan)

Sounds a little Soviet to me, but yes. Dr. Michael Axe actually has a better system -- have kids throw a ball as far as they can. There's distances that are very good predictions about velocity. (Will Carroll)