Recent Opinions

Gold bullion? One key thing you have to look at is if you are dealing with an MER (Management Expense Ratio) and what it is. Also, it is better to buy into certain companies, rather than buying into a whole smorgasbord of companies through a fund. Gold is not cheap, but also not particularly expensive. Thinks that a lot going forward is going to be via the US$, which he thinks is still too high. If it comes down, the price of gold should go up.

Oil/gas service sector? When oil was $30 a barrel, he was predicting it would be over $60 by the end of 2018. If that happens, that is going to help the whole sector. He does almost all his buying in Nov/Dec, and has a number of companies on his list in the sector. One major problem is that a lot of companies have bigger debt loads than he likes to see. A lot also have a lot of upside potential, and a lot have insider buying. It’s a good space to look at. There could still be more tax loss selling towards the end of the year. Hone in on what you are looking for, and have reasonable valuations.

Had paid $7.46, but it is down. They seem to be turning around and making money. Pays a nice dividend of 5.2%. Gives a nice geographic diversification. Based in Holland, but operates in over 15 countries. Huge insurance company. (Analysts’ price target is $5.60.)

He likes what the CEO, John Chen, is doing. They just signed new deals this month with some major players, Delphi and Timex. They are moving in the right direction. Have a tremendous amount of analysts’ coverage, and it is still in the news. When a company like this gains its legs, it can move up very quickly, and he can see how it could double. (Analysts’ price target is $10.50.)

A small California bank. This had been a big success. Had paid $4.01 in 2011, and sold it in June at $11.65, and there was a dividend all the way through. If he held it now, he would continue to hold it at the current price.

Has been suffering because of the increase in minimum wage in Ontario. Thinks the increase is a great idea. If you take people who are earning less than $12 an hour, and all of a sudden up their wages by $3 an hour, they are going to spend the money for the most part because they need to. That in itself will create jobs.

Doesn’t know this well. It used to be on his Stopwatch List at around $1. One reason he liked the stock was because he liked management and thought they would do everything they could to do get out of the major hole they were in. They did it and it had a tremendous run. He doesn’t know the current financials.

It has done so well that he is not interested in it. He prefers companies that are out of favour. This has franchises, including Mr. Lube, Sutton Realty and Air Miles. Pays a great dividend, but has no idea how sustainable that is. Had a bit of a checkered past, so he is not as interested. If looking for a dividend player, and if this company can sustain their dividend, it could do very, very well going forward.

Owns some of their preferred shares. Doesn’t think he would buy the common shares now. Has a huge insurance operation in many, many countries. He likes what they do. They made a major mistake during the recession, when they hedged on the basis of the market going to go down, but the market has done fantastic.

(A Top Pick June 28/16. Up 31%.) Feels this still has a lot of upside. It is selling for around BV. A small branch with 23 to 25 branches. It could be a takeover at some point. He can see this doubling from here.

Bought this last April at over $3, and it has come down since then. They have a few problems such as dealing with some lawsuits. One is obviously a rogue trader who was putting people into investments that were too risky for them. This is possibly going to court, and he doesn’t know how that is going to work out. GMP Capital has 2 sides. One is the energy side where they raise money for energy and mining companies, which has not been a great side. The other side is Richardson Securities, wealth management, which has been absolutely wonderful for them. Thought they would be taken over. He is quite content holding this, and can see how it can do a triple from this level. They had a lot of competition, but a lot of it has either folded or merged, so there is less competition.

Does a lot of training in nuclear, chemical and oil/gas industries. He has had a double since he bought it, and thinks it can go up at least another 50%, if not double again. A beautiful company, in terms of financial ratios. They have no debt. They make money and have cut costs. Just did a small takeover that they expect to be accretive right away. He loves buying companies that have low debt or no debt.

(A Top Pick June 28/16. Down 36%.) This was a bad pick all along. About every 3 years it has a spike, and the last one was around 2012 so it is now overdue. He is waiting for a catalyst. They have very little debt. It could take some tax loss selling before the end of the year, and he has it on his Buy list. Does digitization and a lot in the Tech Arena.

He’s lost a fair bit of money on this, but is happy to hold. The major problem they are facing is with the SEC. They thought they had settled and it appeared everything was good, but now the SEC has come back after them. That is ultimately going to cost them time and money. It is the kind of a distraction that a company really doesn’t need. Expects there will be some tax loss selling towards the end of the year, so you may be able to get in at a better price.

Has done very well on this. Pays a nice dividend. The biggest telco player in France, but also plays in many other countries too. He never averages up on a stock, so wouldn’t do so on this one either. Thinks the stock can go a lot further.

Made a major change after he bought into it. They’ve moved from being a “patent troll” and into the Internet of Things. They’ve done takeovers and has over $100 million in cash. What they are doing may work out. It is very early in the game. Dividend yield of 3.1%. (Analysts’ price target is $2.50.)

(A Top Pick June 28/16. Down 1%.) Has been hit along with the retail sector. Pays a dividend of almost 5%. Great balance sheet. They should be helped going forward, because the Cdn$ is going up, and they source so much from the US. He is a little concerned about their new athletic stores.

Thinks they have a definite a chance to survive. Have sales of about $9-$10 billion, and a huge debt load of around $40 billion. They have big problems, but the CEO says they are about where they want to be with the debt. Has all kinds of legal problems they have to deal with. Companies that do takeover after takeover and take on debt, generally get into trouble. Doesn’t feel it is cheap enough. If it got under $10, he might look at it.

Filters H2S (hydrogen sulfide) and uses the results for fertilizer. He decided not to go into this because he doesn’t get involved in venture firms, but questions his wisdom when he knows the company and its management so well. They don’t have a lot of revenues. Its minor-league, but is expected to go up. They are building a plant. The volume is very, very low and it trades by appointment. He avoids new companies like this, but believes in management.

Markets. Trump was not focused on North Korea over the weekend in Tweets. But North Korea is suggesting that previous tweets were a declaration of war. Markets have dropped slightly. At some point the market wakes up. In Germany, Merkel was re-elected but with fewer votes. The Euro has dropped. Governing in Germany is going to me more difficult. Eventually the European project starts to break apart. The risk factor is there. Unwinding of countries’ balance sheets is another market risk present. Caution should prevail in the markets right now.

ETF in AI Category. BOTZ-N and ROBO-N. They have had a phenomenal run up and are probably over done a bit at this point. Japan has a significant weight. It will be an investment theme for decades to come.

Educational Segment. (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?: 3. The Follower. Typically are interested in markets but don’t know a lot and are most interested in looking for a ‘tip’. Their portfolios don’t have a lot of construction or diversification. They suffer from regret aversion and hindsight bias. They won’t make a lot of their own decisions. The FANG stocks have a lot of these.

Markets. The BOC may have blown it by increasing rates so abruptly. The CAD$ just blasted off and that is never a good thing when it moves too far too fast. They need to telegraph the message better next time. It will be harder on exports in the next few quarters. He feels the proposed tax reforms are regressive, attacking small businesses. It is extremely negative for the economy. American stocks are very stretched in terms of valuations. There are better opportunities in Canada. He likes small to mid-sized companies that have leadership roles and are doing business in the US also.

Market.Believes the US is set to underperform relative to other markets, and its currency is part of that. However, we are still in a secular bull market. Looking back to 2009, we had the US equities and the US$ very undervalued and the Fed as the most accommodative of liquidity provider globally. The Fed has become almost a leading indicator of what other Central banks will do. Coming up to December 2016, there were a lot of hopeful opinions on Donald Trump and the US$ was sitting at a 14 year high. US equities are very expensive, and the Fed was no longer the most accommodative liquidity provider. Be prepared for some underperformance in US equities. Globally, economies that lagged since then have been the emerging markets. We’ve had 7 years of underperformance of emerging markets, and they just broke a 10 year downtrend in the last quarter. EMs have done incredibly well year-to-date, but there has been some froth. Looking forward, this trend is going to be measured in years, not quarters like many are forecasting. In currency ETF’s, there is a big knowledge gap with investors. Most think currency is too difficult so they become passive investors to that class. He views it completely different, i.e., as an asset class. Currency can become overvalued and over loved or the opposite, similar to a stock. The Cdn$ has some good tailwinds, but also some good headwinds as well.

Will North Korea affect the stock market?The luxury of being a macro investor is that you can lengthen your understanding of history, and look back at past episodes. He is not opposed to analysing risks and geopolitical risks. He is opposed to individualized risks in not remaining diversified. Stay globally diversified.

(A Top Pick Sept 20/16. Up 19%.) In the last 5 years, China has been everybody’s favourite whipping boy. His view has been completely different. 40% of the holdings are Chinese banks. China is making some good progress towards economic rebalancing. The rise of the Asian consumer is the biggest macro story of the next decade. He just sold this today as it had become very overbought.

Is robotics a good sector?The macro trend in robotics is definitely a real one. Unfortunately, a lot of people know about it. Manufacturing in the US, since the financial crisis, is up about 20%, and yet the rise in employment is only up 5%. This is a good theme to play long-term, but wait for a pullback.

A laddered bond portfolio. He likes it. Each ETF provider’s version has had bad performance over the last few months because short term yields are seen as rising. The risk is if the BOC is more aggressively tightening. You want to wait until after the next announcement when there may be another pull back and then perhaps get in.

Great management team that has been executing flawlessly. One little hiccup can really hammer this stock. All the cinema stocks have come down in North America. CGX-T is looking at some high growth avenues like amusement centers to grow. He is going to wait for a few quarters.

He used to own it a long time ago. It stalled out and he sold. It is finally getting traction again. They are trying to diversify the business. If they lose a big contract it could really impact the results. The dividend is safe. He would like to buy it much more cheaply but he would not buy at these levels.

In the last month all the broadcasters have come down substantially. He thinks they will come out with pretty good results over the next few quarters. There are a lot of cost synergies that they should be able to squeeze out after their Shaw acquisition. Subscriber growth has been seen over the last year. You are getting a nice 8.9% dividend that he feels is safe.

(Top Pick Sep 22/16, Down 54%) They hit a bit of a speed bump as a lot of theatres are upgrading their seats to reclining ones. They have adapted their product and so should recover over the next few quarters. He thinks there is a deal coming with AMC theatres as they are now advertizing that they use DBO-T seats. It is a great time to buy.

The only caveat he would have on this is that whenever you take a market cap Index and tweak it dividend weight, you create inherent biases. With emerging markets, when you create that, you tend to overweight Russia and China, which are both high dividend yielding countries. If you are comfortable with those sectors, this is a great dividend one.

One of the only retailers that is AMZN-Q proof. It is a tough one for a value investor to buy. You have to be careful if they ever did disappoint. You have to keep your eye on it. The valuations are way too high for his style of investing.

It was a spinoff of Element Financial. He buys when it dips below $4. They are getting into lending for home renovations. They are quite undervalued. It remains to be seen how fast they can grow the company from here. There is some good long term value creation in the name.

It feels weird to recommend European banks, but there are limits to linear thinking, and things can change. Europe, arguably, is much earlier in the economic cycle than the US. Importantly, credit markets are fine and confidence is up.

Sweden is a country with less than 10 million people, but incredibly geared towards the global economic cycle. If you believe we are in this mild, synchronized global upturn, then you want a very highly industrialized nation, geared towards a global recovery. Sweden accomplishes that. Bloomberg just put out their index and said Sweden ranked 2nd in the Innovation Index.

He likes European stocks, and thinks Europe is finally healing. There are signs of economic acceleration, earnings acceleration and credit growth. Credit growth is indicating their consumers are getting a little more confident and things are turning in the right direction.

They have about 40% of the market. They disclosed there are up to 31k subscribers. They just went public in June. They are full of cash and now increasing their distribution facility in Montreal 10 fold. They will open a facility out west next year. It would make sense for a large grocer to acquire this one to get into the business of direct delivery to the home. They have great management. (Analysts’ target: $2.63).

You have to look at it as a very long term investment. They are sitting on a war chest of cash and invest in many healthcare-related businesses. Management is very smart and know what they are doing, but to move the needle they have to make a huge acquisition.

IMO-T vs. XOM-N. Oil is not going to take off in a big way but he has been buying oil on weakness over the last while. However he is now thinking of reducing his weight in oil. Now is not the time to step in. He would tend to stick with Canadian because of currency risk. They are getting over bought.

It is not interest rate sensitive. There are big moats around the business. They are modernizing several of their plants and can increase their margins going forward. It is in a consolidation phase as new plants come online. You will have to wait a few quarters if you get in.

It has been very well managed and has been one of the better performers. He is staying away from restaurants as they are expensive and have very little growth. This is one of the better ones, however. If you are happy with the dividend then hold on to it.

(Top Pick Sep 22/16, Up 6%) Their volume of containers has expanded significantly. Their environmental business has record backlogs. It is a great entry point and he has been buying more. Very high barriers to entry. It is an infrastructure pay on two fronts.

The market is looking for them to make some bigger high profile announcements. They have been growing the business at a good clip since losing the NHL last year. He is expecting good things over the next few quarters.

A very innovative management team. The founding shareholder owns about 30% of the company. He would want a much higher price for the sale of the company. It will be hard to maintain the clip of growth in this company. He would not expect it to move up quickly from here. It will be treading water from here. Continue to sit on it and collect the dividend.

It has been a great performer and is just digesting some acquisitions south of the border. He bought back in around $18. It is the only way to play the death care industry in Canada. There is great expansion potential on many of their properties. They are going to take a pause from big acquisitions and the upward trend should result over a few quarters.

An infrastructure play. They provide services and equipment to inspect waste water, oil and gas pipes. It was overvalued for many years. They had had some integration issues with acquisitions. Margins are growing and costs are under control. (Analysts’ target: $6.50).

The new CEO wants to implement a growth strategy. They just acquired a Maple Syrup products exporter, the biggest in the world. You should see a re-rating of the stock to a growth stock. (Analysts’ target: $7.00).

Another extremely expensive, high growth stock. They are migrating up the food chain to larger companies. It is priced for perfection. Another company could complete with them. If you have made nice money he would take the money and run.

He has never owned it but has followed it. They are transitioning out of a tough sector. They have done a great job in a tough space. The stock has performed tremendously well. It remains to be seen if they can become a force in packaging. He would certainly hold onto it if he owned it. He owns two others.

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