Northern Dancer and the Epsom Derby

John Donnelly, an employee of Darley America and keen pedigree student, has penned the following guest post for TrueNicks. He takes a slightly different look at the influence of Northern Dancer on the Epsom Derby. With the 50th anniversary of Northern Dancer's birth, May 27, 1961, just recently passing, and the Epsom Derby being run and won, we thought that this was a timely post.

The name Northern Dancer first sprang to the attention of European owners and breeders forty years ago when he sired one of the greatest race horses of the twentieth century in Nijinsky II, who under the tutelage of the great Vincent O’Brien won the Two Thousand Guineas, Epsom Derby, and St. Leger, thus becoming the first horse since Bahram in 1935 to win the English Triple Crown.

Since that time, Northern Dancer’s influence on the Epsom Derby has grown significantly, if tempered by the fact that his name has become almost all-pervasive in the breed. There has not been a winner of the Epsom Derby since High Rise in 1998, some 13 years, to not have the presence of Northern Dancer in his pedigree, and quite interestingly this year's third placegetter, Carlton House, is the first placegetter in the Derby without Northern Dancer in his pedigree since Beat All in 1999.

The following is a more detailed look at the influence of this super sire on the race once described by legendary breeder Federico Tesio as "the race that shapes the evolution of the Thoroughbred." Because of the closeness of some of the finishes, and the fact that the first three horses each running should be considered the elite of their generation, I consider it best to give equal merit to the winners and the placed horses. Northern Dancer's influence on each horse will be calculated on principles similar to those of the dosage index. The first five generations of each horses pedigree will be examined and points awarded according to where Northern Dancer appears in that horse's pedigree. The points will be awarded as follows:

Generation

Points

1st

16

2nd

8

3rd

4

4th

2

5th

1

6th

0.5

For example, here is the breakdown for the top three Epsom Derby finishers of 2011:

Finish

Horse

Points

1st

Pour Moi

6 = Northern Dancer in 3rd and 4th generations

2nd

Treasure Beach

5 = Northern Dancer in 3rd and 5th generations

3rd

Carlton House

0 = pedigree free of Northern Dancer

Total

11

If Northern Dancer appears more than once in an individual pedigree, then the total amount of points will be cumulative. What is noteworthy from the figures below is that even though Northern Dancer is recessing back further into pedigrees, the numbers, especially in the past 15 years, have remained rather constant, indicating that breeders are far from reticent about inbreeding to this wonderful sire.

A horse sired by Northern Dancer is awarded 16 points but the total pedigree influence Northern Dancer has on that horse is only 50% which is 16/32. Therefore in a given year the point totals must be divided by 96 (32 x 3) to give the a fractional figure as to the influence of Northern Dancer that year.

Year

Points

% influence

1970

16

16.7%

1971

0

0.0%

1972

0

0.0%

1973

0

0.0%

1974

0

0.0%

1975

0

0.0%

1976

8

8.3%

1977

16

16.7%

1978

0

0.0%

1979

16

16.7%

1980

0

0.0%

1981

0

0.0%

1982

8

8.3%

1983

0

0.0%

1984

32

33.3%

1985

0

0.0%

1986

16

16.7%

1987

8

8.3%

1988

6

6.3%

1989

16

0.0%

1990

10

10.4%

1991

12

12.5%

1992

8

8.3%

1993

8

8.3%

1994

20

20.8%

1995

18

18.8%

1996

12

12.5%

1997

12

12.5%

1998

4

4.2%

1999

16

16.7%

2000

18

18.8%

2001

13

13.5%

2002

14

14.6%

2003

14

14.6%

2004

18

18.8%

2005

11

11.5%

2006

15

15.6%

2007

15

15.6%

2008

8

8.3%

2009

14

14.6%

2010

12

12.5%

2011

11

11.5%

Total

409

10.1%

Decade

Points

% influence

1970s

56

5.8%

1980s

70

7.3%

1990s

120

12.5%

2000s

140

14.6%

2010s

23

12.0%

The results highlight the trend of Northern Dancer's strong influence on England's great classic race, with the 2000s showing the most significant concentration. Considering the multitude of top-level Northern Dancer-line sires standing in Europe (primarily through Sadler's Wells and Danehill), Northern Dancer's continued influence on the English classics seems secure for years to come.