Since 2008, an independent look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. Nothing is for sale, and this not a Profit and Loss report either. They're boring.

Saturday, 24 May 2014

I interrupt this analysis of the 203-14 season to clarify something I wrote here which has caused some confusion. If the highly regarded Football Investor (@FootyInvestor) is confused, then I imagine many people are. What I wrote in regard to running another Friendly Tipster League in 2014-15 was this:

I'll also only include paid entries next season, and no longer include the 'official' selections from the professionals in the table.

What I did last season was modify entries from professionals such as Peter Nordsted who would send me something like this as his Official selections and prices:

Those are Peter's prices listed, and I maintained an entry in the FTL for these 11 bets at the prices listed to be fair to Peter, even though the bookmakers listed are often ones known for limiting or closing accounts and are of little use to most of us.The list of selections often included bets for which the Football Data web site doesn't record the prices. Half-Time bets are one example, and the Under / Over bets they record are all for the 2.5 goal markets, so where Peter selects Under 1.5 as he does in the example above, the bet for FTL purposes is on the Under 2.5. Where he selects both Under 1.5 and 2.5 as he does in the Everton v Fulham game, it becomes one bet - a good thing for Peter as the result was 4:1.To me, it's nonsense to bet on multiple unders or overs in the same match - If Unders (or Overs) is value, then ALL the unders (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, etc.) will be value since all prices are derived from goal expectancies. So the filtered selections for the FTL entry end up being as few as five matches in this case:

14/12/2013 Man City Arsenal 2.5 Goals Under 2.514/12/2013 Everton Fulham 2.5 Goals Under 2.514/12/2013 Everton Fulham Full Time Away14/12/2013 Newcastle Southampton Full Time Home14/12/2013 Hull Stoke Full Time Away

The prices recorded on any winners are taken from the Football Data web site, and use Pinnacle Sports' prices on the match odds bets. Thus each week, I have two separate sets of selections to track - one is the professional's selections, and one is the FTL modified selections qualifying for prize money.I recorded these like this:

The ($) designation meant that is was eligible for the FTL prize money. I expected the two sets of results to be similar over the course of a season, and they were (at least in terms of position). Peter's modified entry ended up 11 points better than his official bets because it eliminated a few of his losing selections, while Skeeve's modified entry benefited by excluding his Conference South selections (no prices on the Football Data page) and separating his doubles into singles:

All I was trying to say is that for next season, I will not include in the table the services 'Official' results - only the modified, and valid for the FTL, entry.I may well keep track of both sets of selections, and provide occasional updates, but FTL table will be cleaner and make more sense if the official results are excluded.I hope this is clear.On a completely different topic, my wife (American) just asked me who Kwizbar Rangers are!

About Me

I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.