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Tuesday, June 1, 2010

What Should We Expect From Buster Posey

Buster Posey has exploded on the scene in his first few games with the Giants. In his 2010 debut he had 3 hits and 3 RBIs, he followed up that outing with another 3 hit day that included another RBI and 2 doubles.

There is no question that Buster Posey has enormous talent the question is what is the level of production that fans should expect from him this season. While those first few games were awesome and only contribute to his growing legend it is outrageous to expect him to continue at this pace for the whole season.

He is currently hitting at .500/.500/.667 with a 1.167 OPS. That is just nuts. (full table is down below)

The ZIPS Updated projection for the remainder of the season from Fangraphs has him hitting .278/.351/.420 with a .771 OPS. This compares favorably to what his minor league numbers project to as well.
We can also get an idea of what to expect by checking out his major league equivalent for the first part of the season that was spent in the minors.

This would give him a line of .274/.337/.421 and OPS of .758

Looking at the projection and the MLE the rate stats seem to match up pretty well and for my own projection I am inclined to anticipate something along these lines as well.

I anticipate that if Posey remains in the majors for the remainder of the season and if he is able to get into 4-5 games a week he should play in about 90 games and put up the following numbers.

.284/.345/.410 and a OPS of .755

I was less optimistic about the power numbers then the projections because of the home parks in the national league west and the fact that Posey has much more of a compact gap hitter type swing. I think that Posey hit will hit for a good average and have a very good walk rate that should be around 10% while keeping the strikeouts in check at around 15%.

With these numbers Posey would be around league average and if he plays primarily at first base slightly below average compared to others at the position. However with these numbers he would be one of the better bats in the Giants lineup and more then worthy of getting playing time compared to the other options in the organization.

He may not finish the season hitting .500 but if the Giants keep him in the big leagues he will be a worthy player. He will not single handily save the offense but he will give the team a player that can push them towards league average. I am excited that he is up in the Majors and I hope that he is here to stay.