REAL PEOPLE, REAL ISSUES

November 29, 2008

Oscar predictions

This time last year, anyone attempting to divine the Oscar nominees
would have had a lot more to go on. "No Country for Old Men," "Michael
Clayton," "Into the Wild," "Eastern Promises," "Away From Her," "La Vie
en Rose" and "In the Valley of Elah" were all already in release. Other
potential nominees such as "Atonement" and "Juno" had played festivals,
leaving a trail of reviews to aid one in prognosticating. This time around reels of the most likely Oscar nominees are locked
in a vault somewhere in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Oscar buzz for earlier
releases such as "W." and "Rachel Getting Married" is barely audible
anymore. The perception that this is an off year for movies could
change once the studios march out their top-of-the-line product.Here's how the Oscar race is shaping up. Potential nominees are in
alphabetical order. Nominations will be announced Jan. 22, and the 81st
annual Academy Awards will take place a month later to the day.

BEST PICTURE

FROST/NIXON: All the interest in politics this year
should give this drama a push at Oscar nomination time. Ron Howard
directs an intricate conversation between British TV commentator David
Frost and disgraced President Richard Nixon. We're guessing academy
voters will be engaged, not put off, by the film's intellectual tone.

THE DARK KNIGHT: In recent years, smaller films
such as "Crash" and "No Country for Old Men" have captured the
best-picture prize. Studios are making a big push this year to go back
to the days when huge, popular movies were Oscar winners. "The Dark
Knight" is most likely to benefit from a marketing boost since, besides
making more than $400 million, it is an elegantly crafted piece of
cinema.

DOUBT: Although set in the 1960s, the movie has
subject matter - a priest in trouble for possible molestation - that is
as topical as ever. With John Patrick Shanley directing, you can be
sure nobody messed with the words of his award-winning play.

MILK: Deserving of a nomination for telling the
story of slain San Francisco politician Harvey Milk. Led by Sean Penn
in the title role, the acting is extraordinary. But the film could be
hurt by a bias against smaller films with a gritty indie feel.

REVOLUTIONARY ROAD: Academy members who are fond of
"Mad Men" are likely to be drawn to this movie set in a similar milieu
around the same time. A troubled marriage catches people's attention
because it makes their own unions look not so bad. Director Sam Mendes
proved that he has a touch for this kind of story with "American
Beauty."

BEST ACTOR

RICHARD JENKINS for "The Visitor": The consummate
supporting actor, Jenkins is finally given a leading role at age 60,
and he hits one out of the park. He plays a widower who discovers he
has rhythm.

FRANK LANGELLA for "Frost/Nixon": Academy members
might want to make it up to Langella for being cheated out of a
nomination last year for "Starting Out in the Evening." He brings
humanity to Richard Nixon. You actually end up liking the guy.

SEAN PENN for "Milk": The main concern about Penn
playing Milk is that he wouldn't be able to capture the politician's
lighter side. But Penn proved to be wonderful at being silly.

BRAD PITT for "The Curious Case of Benjamin
Button": Academy members like to watch actors distort their faces and
bodies. So Pitt is sure to engender interest for playing a man born in
his 80s who grows younger. The only time he was a nominee was more than
a decade ago, for "Twelve Monkeys," and he and the mother of his
children would be most welcome at the 2009 ceremonies, adding their
flash of glamour.

MICKEY ROURKE for "The Wrestler:" Score some extra
points for Rourke for a comeback that has all of Hollywood buzzing.
Once a romantic lead, he disappeared for years, only to regain
attention by playing a wrestler trying to make a comeback. His face and
body are bruised for real, but he has never seemed so emotionally
accessible.

BEST ACTRESS

CATE BLANCHETT:

Early reviews talk about how essential Blanchett's
character is in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button." She is Brad
Pitt's romantic interest, the force that keeps him going through his
very strange trajectory from an old man to a young one. Blanchett is
already an academy favorite.

ANNE HATHAWAY in "Rachel Getting Married": The
movie disappeared without a trace. But the memory of Hathaway as a
young woman fresh out of rehab and hell-bent on spoiling her sister's
wedding lingers. A backlash against indie films could hurt Hathaway's
chances.

KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS in "I've Loved You So Long":
It takes a minute to adjust to her speaking French and a few minutes
more to her wearing no makeup. Then, suddenly, you realize that this is
acting - bare-bones and magical. It's a transformative performance and
would probably not only be nominated but also win, except for Kate
Winslet.

MERYL STREEP in "Doubt": She looks scary and acts
scary as the head nun in a parochial school. Streep doesn't try to get
you to like her character, only to accept that she is on the side of
God. This would be her 15th nomination. She beat Katharine Hepburn's
previous high of 12 five years ago. Now all Streep can do is top
herself.

KATE WINSLET in "Revolutionary Road" or "The
Reader": This actress, 33, with five nominations is a double threat for
a sixth. She could get it as a Nazi war criminal in "The Reader" or as
an unhappy 1950s housewife in "Revolutionary Road."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

JOSH BROLIN in "Milk": With most of the script
focusing on Milk, Brolin had to move quickly to present assassin Dan
White as a confused and complicated man. You may even feel sorry for
him.

ROBERT DOWNEY JR. in "Tropic Thunder": Another
beneficiary of the push by major studios to see their big-ticket movies
on the Oscar ballot. Downey has done better work, but not in blackface.

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN in "Doubt": As the priest
whose moral principles are in question, Hoffman holds his ground. He
also holds the screen - even opposite Streep.

HEATH LEDGER in "The Dark Knight": As the Joker,
Ledger's face of evil stays with you, and you wonder what it took out
of him to inhabit this monster. He will almost certainly win the Oscar,
but it will be a bittersweet victory for the late actor's family and
friends.

MICHAEL SHANNON in "Revolutionary Road": As the
mentally disturbed son of a suburban real estate agent, this young
Chicago stage actor is said to turn in a performance reminiscent of
Edward Norton's role in "Primal Fear."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

AMY ADAMS in "Doubt": Each of her co-stars knows
where they think the truth lies. Adams wins us over by presenting her
young nun as riddled with doubt.

KATHY BATES in "Revolutionary Road": As a go-go
real estate agent, Bates sees the unhappiness in her clients' homes but
doesn't understand it. Her obliqueness is the strength of the
performance.

PENÉLOPE CRUZ in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona": Cruz
has been so miscast in Hollywood it's a pleasure to see what she is
capable of in a proper role, in this case the loony Spanish-shrieking
ex-wife of a lothario.

VIOLA DAVIS in "Doubt": As the mother of a boy who
possibly has been sexually abused, Davis tells Streep's principal off.
That alone should win her a nomination.

MARISA TOMEI in "The Wrestler": Tomei goes the full
12 rounds as a stripper who becomes Rourke's confidante and almost
girlfriend. The two make an odd but touching couple. Tomei is as naked
emotionally as she is physically.

Comments

Oscar predictions

This time last year, anyone attempting to divine the Oscar nominees
would have had a lot more to go on. "No Country for Old Men," "Michael
Clayton," "Into the Wild," "Eastern Promises," "Away From Her," "La Vie
en Rose" and "In the Valley of Elah" were all already in release. Other
potential nominees such as "Atonement" and "Juno" had played festivals,
leaving a trail of reviews to aid one in prognosticating. This time around reels of the most likely Oscar nominees are locked
in a vault somewhere in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Oscar buzz for earlier
releases such as "W." and "Rachel Getting Married" is barely audible
anymore. The perception that this is an off year for movies could
change once the studios march out their top-of-the-line product.Here's how the Oscar race is shaping up. Potential nominees are in
alphabetical order. Nominations will be announced Jan. 22, and the 81st
annual Academy Awards will take place a month later to the day.

BEST PICTURE

FROST/NIXON: All the interest in politics this year
should give this drama a push at Oscar nomination time. Ron Howard
directs an intricate conversation between British TV commentator David
Frost and disgraced President Richard Nixon. We're guessing academy
voters will be engaged, not put off, by the film's intellectual tone.

THE DARK KNIGHT: In recent years, smaller films
such as "Crash" and "No Country for Old Men" have captured the
best-picture prize. Studios are making a big push this year to go back
to the days when huge, popular movies were Oscar winners. "The Dark
Knight" is most likely to benefit from a marketing boost since, besides
making more than $400 million, it is an elegantly crafted piece of
cinema.

DOUBT: Although set in the 1960s, the movie has
subject matter - a priest in trouble for possible molestation - that is
as topical as ever. With John Patrick Shanley directing, you can be
sure nobody messed with the words of his award-winning play.

MILK: Deserving of a nomination for telling the
story of slain San Francisco politician Harvey Milk. Led by Sean Penn
in the title role, the acting is extraordinary. But the film could be
hurt by a bias against smaller films with a gritty indie feel.

REVOLUTIONARY ROAD: Academy members who are fond of
"Mad Men" are likely to be drawn to this movie set in a similar milieu
around the same time. A troubled marriage catches people's attention
because it makes their own unions look not so bad. Director Sam Mendes
proved that he has a touch for this kind of story with "American
Beauty."

BEST ACTOR

RICHARD JENKINS for "The Visitor": The consummate
supporting actor, Jenkins is finally given a leading role at age 60,
and he hits one out of the park. He plays a widower who discovers he
has rhythm.

FRANK LANGELLA for "Frost/Nixon": Academy members
might want to make it up to Langella for being cheated out of a
nomination last year for "Starting Out in the Evening." He brings
humanity to Richard Nixon. You actually end up liking the guy.

SEAN PENN for "Milk": The main concern about Penn
playing Milk is that he wouldn't be able to capture the politician's
lighter side. But Penn proved to be wonderful at being silly.

BRAD PITT for "The Curious Case of Benjamin
Button": Academy members like to watch actors distort their faces and
bodies. So Pitt is sure to engender interest for playing a man born in
his 80s who grows younger. The only time he was a nominee was more than
a decade ago, for "Twelve Monkeys," and he and the mother of his
children would be most welcome at the 2009 ceremonies, adding their
flash of glamour.

MICKEY ROURKE for "The Wrestler:" Score some extra
points for Rourke for a comeback that has all of Hollywood buzzing.
Once a romantic lead, he disappeared for years, only to regain
attention by playing a wrestler trying to make a comeback. His face and
body are bruised for real, but he has never seemed so emotionally
accessible.

BEST ACTRESS

CATE BLANCHETT:

Early reviews talk about how essential Blanchett's
character is in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button." She is Brad
Pitt's romantic interest, the force that keeps him going through his
very strange trajectory from an old man to a young one. Blanchett is
already an academy favorite.

ANNE HATHAWAY in "Rachel Getting Married": The
movie disappeared without a trace. But the memory of Hathaway as a
young woman fresh out of rehab and hell-bent on spoiling her sister's
wedding lingers. A backlash against indie films could hurt Hathaway's
chances.

KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS in "I've Loved You So Long":
It takes a minute to adjust to her speaking French and a few minutes
more to her wearing no makeup. Then, suddenly, you realize that this is
acting - bare-bones and magical. It's a transformative performance and
would probably not only be nominated but also win, except for Kate
Winslet.

MERYL STREEP in "Doubt": She looks scary and acts
scary as the head nun in a parochial school. Streep doesn't try to get
you to like her character, only to accept that she is on the side of
God. This would be her 15th nomination. She beat Katharine Hepburn's
previous high of 12 five years ago. Now all Streep can do is top
herself.

KATE WINSLET in "Revolutionary Road" or "The
Reader": This actress, 33, with five nominations is a double threat for
a sixth. She could get it as a Nazi war criminal in "The Reader" or as
an unhappy 1950s housewife in "Revolutionary Road."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

JOSH BROLIN in "Milk": With most of the script
focusing on Milk, Brolin had to move quickly to present assassin Dan
White as a confused and complicated man. You may even feel sorry for
him.

ROBERT DOWNEY JR. in "Tropic Thunder": Another
beneficiary of the push by major studios to see their big-ticket movies
on the Oscar ballot. Downey has done better work, but not in blackface.

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN in "Doubt": As the priest
whose moral principles are in question, Hoffman holds his ground. He
also holds the screen - even opposite Streep.

HEATH LEDGER in "The Dark Knight": As the Joker,
Ledger's face of evil stays with you, and you wonder what it took out
of him to inhabit this monster. He will almost certainly win the Oscar,
but it will be a bittersweet victory for the late actor's family and
friends.

MICHAEL SHANNON in "Revolutionary Road": As the
mentally disturbed son of a suburban real estate agent, this young
Chicago stage actor is said to turn in a performance reminiscent of
Edward Norton's role in "Primal Fear."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

AMY ADAMS in "Doubt": Each of her co-stars knows
where they think the truth lies. Adams wins us over by presenting her
young nun as riddled with doubt.

KATHY BATES in "Revolutionary Road": As a go-go
real estate agent, Bates sees the unhappiness in her clients' homes but
doesn't understand it. Her obliqueness is the strength of the
performance.

PENÉLOPE CRUZ in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona": Cruz
has been so miscast in Hollywood it's a pleasure to see what she is
capable of in a proper role, in this case the loony Spanish-shrieking
ex-wife of a lothario.

VIOLA DAVIS in "Doubt": As the mother of a boy who
possibly has been sexually abused, Davis tells Streep's principal off.
That alone should win her a nomination.

MARISA TOMEI in "The Wrestler": Tomei goes the full
12 rounds as a stripper who becomes Rourke's confidante and almost
girlfriend. The two make an odd but touching couple. Tomei is as naked
emotionally as she is physically.

September 2012

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