why dont EI start west coast to SFO and LAX again by the looks of it demand is there but there not bothering till the A350's arrive but they could terminate the MAD - IAD route or not use the A330 for the malaga route

Quoting irishair98 (Thread starter):why dont EI start west coast to SFO and LAX again by the looks of it demand is there but there not bothering till the A350's arrive but they could terminate the MAD - IAD route or not use the A330 for the malaga route

The MAD-IAD route is part of a joint venture with UA. EI probably can't terminate it before the contract ends without paying some hefty fees to them. And that is assuming that flight is unprofitable, which considering that is operating from a UA hub with a UA partnership is probably not an easy assumption to make.

The Malaga route sits between an early east coast arrival and a later east coast departure from Dublin. This is an excellent use of an otherwise idle aircraft.

West Coast flying from Europe is an expensive exersize. In the boom times of Ireland this market failed to make money, and in the emerging post recession of Ireland and shaky California economy, now is not the time to relauch.

Perhaps when EI chooses an alliance partner for travel to Australasia this will add to the potential of this market and determine the gateway.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):Easily: Ireland is out of money. Can't afford to send their state-owned airline to an expensive airport like LAX or SFO

Um, not so easily, actually.

Aer Lingus is not a state airline. Only a 25% share of it is owned by the government, and that will be sold off shortly.

Besides, even if it was state owned and controlled, trying to say that a country which has the 4th highest GDP per capita in the European Union "cant afford" to send its airline to an airport is a ridiculous notion - more especially when the airline is in private hands anyway and is profitable.

EI contemplated a return to the West Coast last year but decided the pending losses were too great. There was a big push by the Bay Area business groups to establish a link between the Bay Area and Dublin. After this fell through, according to the article, they were to lobby UA.

Quoting poLOT (Reply 1):The MAD-IAD route is part of a joint venture with UA. EI probably can't terminate it before the contract ends without paying some hefty fees to them. And that is assuming that flight is unprofitable, which considering that is operating from a UA hub with a UA partnership is probably not an easy assumption to make.

When does that JV contract between UA and EI for the IAD-MAD service end? The flights seem to be pretty full, based upon spot checks of seat availability online. I guess they could either extend the co-operation, or United could do the route on its own metal.

It is interesting to me that Aer Lingus is operating their A330 on behalf of United to MAD, which is a OneWorld hub. Is EI permitted to sell seats on this flight and connect passengers at Madrid? I just tried to verify this myself, but for some reason the Aer Lingus website won't load.

Quoting legacyins (Reply 6):EI contemplated a return to the West Coast last year but decided the pending losses were too great. There was a big push by the Bay Area business groups to establish a link between the Bay Area and Dublin. After this fell through, according to the article, they were to lobby UA.

Hmmm....

UA could possibly make DUB-SFO flights work using refurbished two-class 763s or new 788s. Perhaps not daily, or year-round, but I think it could be done!

I can still see them joining Star, now that bmi is gone from that alliance, and even moving their wet-lease A330 from IAD-MAD to SFO-DUB! If UA and EI work together, the route could succeed.

Edit to add:

O&D DUB-SFO traffic aside, it seems to me that EI and UA could offer each other nice connections at both ends. UA to Hawaii, Australia, and the U.S. west coast, and EI to places in Ireland, the UK, and northern Europe.

If the route was viable, why would United need Aer Lingus? Even in a stronger market like LHR-LAX/SFO, it's got seasonal cutbacks and even then it's hard to make good yields on when fuel is high, added to the fact much of the traffic flies one stop via an Eastern hub for less. DUB-LAZ was tricky in better days and Aer Lingus have neer sustained a profitable operation beyond the core JFK/BOS/ORD routes.

I don't know -- maybe DUB-SFO can be viable only if UA and EI work together.

Onward connections at Dublin would help fill the plane, and pax entering the USA from a DUB flight would be pre-cleared for Customs and enjoy a more pleasant entry into the country, if the policy of clearance in Ireland for U.S.-bound pax holds.

EI would get great loads but they could do a test run of the flight LAX 4x week and SFO 3x week , seen as EI are using there codeshare agreement with UA on the MAD - IAD route in return UA could do a DUB - SFO or DUB - LAX it could work but it would be better seeing the green shamrock on the west coast

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 2):Perhaps when EI chooses an alliance partner for travel to Australasia this will add to the potential of this market and determine the gateway.

They have CX and QF surely? Even if its only those airlines selling the tickets as is the case with all of their alliances - I'm still at a loss as to why they don't sell tickets for the KL, BA, CX and QF flights that they're perfectly willing to have tickets sold for them on!

If they take their entire A350 order *and* hold on to the newer A330s they will realistically have to look at West Coast and Canada again.

Aer Lingus had no problem filling the aircraft, LAX was always very strong load wise and I don't think SFO was bad either but as fuel started to creep up it became very difficult to remain profitable and that's before the recession even started. Business loads weren't great though so the yield just wasn't there when things got tough. Management at Aer Lingus stated the Irish market just wasn't willing to pay the fares required to make west coast profitable again, they expected the same type of fare they were used to on JFK, BOS and ORD.

Aer Lingus recently mentioned looking at expansion on transatlantic again, one new routes could be possible but it was East Coast only. It seems in the medium term west coast has been ruled out and there doesn't seem to be much movement from other airlines either.

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 5):a country which has the 4th highest GDP per capita in the European Union

another point in support of how GDP is becoming less and less relevant as a accurate measure of actual economic prosperity. Most of Ireland's GDP is accounted for by multinationals engaging in the 'double irish' accounting maneuver. A better metric is to look at GNP. While still not a great measure, it gives better insight into the Irish economy, which is dreadful at the moment and will be struggling for a while to come.

Quoting Reply 19):another point in support of how GDP is becoming less and less relevant as a accurate measure of actual economic prosperity. Most of Ireland's GDP is accounted for by multinationals engaging in the 'double irish' accounting maneuver. A better metric is to look at GNP. While still not a great measure, it gives better insight into the Irish economy, which is dreadful at the moment and will be struggling for a while to come.

GNP is still above EU average - anyway, this misses the rather silly point of "Ireland" not being able to send "its state airline" to the apparently uber expensive LAX because it doesnt have any money! lol

Quoting shamrock350 (Reply 18):Management at Aer Lingus stated the Irish market just wasn't willing to pay the fares required to make west coast profitable again, they expected the same type of fare they were used to on JFK, BOS and ORD.

This was a problem alright, but I think the situation may be different now. Fares on the US market have really increased - a few years ago, people buying advance economy fares from say Dublin to New York expected to pay maybe 300 euro in low season. You are lucky if the lowest available fare is 600 euro now, and the market is holding its own, in fact is back to growth again. People have been re-conditioned into expecting to pay higher fares again.

Business really wants this flight back (especially SFO), but if they want it so bad, they are going to have to put their money where their mouths are and buy J tickets. I really dont see EI moving on this unless they get a firm commitment from companies in the tech sector to buy up J class seats. They will fill the back no problem.

Quoting g500 (Reply 14):well let's not forget that only a few years back they were flying to LAX and SFO, and their loads were healthy.

Let's not forget losses were unsustainable and so consequently, they were dropped. Europe is really forming around karge legacy carriers with healthy feed and a large base, that's not Aer Lingus. Some smaller nations do OK in a niche market like Finnair marketing the quickest way to Asia being through HEL, but Malev, LOT and Austrian amongst the second tier of former flag carriers can't build growth on long haul.

Another comparison that is not really useful since Ireland's cost of living is also high when compared to other EU nations.

Again, much as it with all economics, GDP/GNP are not all encompassing metrics and are often misapplied and misunderstood since they don't take into account any elements of leisure time or well-being, volunteer or charitable works or qualitative measure of 'happiness', however you choose to define such. It also includes spending on items we wish we didn't have to spend on (insurance, security, lawyers) if society wasn't as litigious or deceitful and which could probably be better spent elsewhere (idea taken from Bastiat and his 'broken window' fallacy.

Regardless, I don't think we will see any non-stop flights from the US West Coast to Ireland anytime soon, from either Irish or US airlines as there really isn't the year round demand to warrant it. Existing services can provide the necessary air links to get someone to and from easily. Beyond that, California is going to face a day of reckoning sooner than later as it eventually runs out of money.

It is what it is.

25 shamrock604
: LAX made a profit. Then SFO was started, but performed less well than anticipated. EI then dropped LAX to focus on SFO to prevent any cannibalising o

26 styles9002
: So it sounds like this was a management error in your estimation? If so, the fundamentals should still be there to support the service. Or, it is pro

27 Viscount724
: Ireland-Hawaii traiffic must be very small. And Ireland-Australia via SFO is at least 1,200 miles further than via Asia, but UA/EI would have to offe

28 shamrock604
: I'd expect EI are still a little hung up on SFO, and in their estimation, if anything is going to come back, its San Francisco. I'd be for bringing b

29 clydenairways
: Why would you drop a very profitable run to Malaga to loose money on LAX/SFO. And as others have said, it fits between other transatlantic routes any