mgo.licio.us

"The face of the operation is Briatore (referred to exclusively in the film by his colleagues and angry, chanting detractors as "Flavio"), an anthropomorphic radish who spends most of his time at QPR plotting to fire all of the managers."

At press time, Harbaugh had sent Michigan’s athletic department an envelope containing a heavily annotated seating chart, a list of the 63,000 seat views he had found unsatisfactory, and a glowing 70-page report on section 25, row 12, seat 9, which he claimed is “exactly what the great sport of football is all about.”

THE ESSENTIALS

AAAAAAAHHHRHHRRRRRRRRRAAA

THE THEM

Hmmm. This isn't good. Ohio State is #1 in the Kenpom rankings and not far off with squishy hoo-man voters. Their tempo free individual stats are pretty terrifying.

At the top of the heap is post Jared Sullinger, who is…

shooting 61% from 2 on 26% of OSU shots

in the top 100 in eFG%

getting to the line more than five times per game

rebounding almost 30% of opponent misses, fourth nationally

not turning the ball over much

getting a good number of blocks and steals

/shakes fist at NBA lockout. Okay, right, obvious high lottery pick on the other team. Super. Good thing they don't have…

Oh, right, they do. Seconday scoring comes from senior William Buford and sophomore Deshaun Thomas, both of whom absorb about as many of OSU's shots as Sullinger does. Thomas is actually better than Sullinger on twos (62%, 34% from 3) and almost as efficient overall; Buford has a been a little erratic but still bests Michigan's high usage players in ORtg. While Ohio State puts up very few threes (26%, 317th), if one is going up chances are its one of these two dudes launching it. Buford's hitting 39%. You can't leave these guys alone on the perimeter but neither are you asking for it, Diebler-style.

OSU plays four out, one in most of the time and Buford has to pick up a lot of the defensive rebounding; Thomas and Sullinger crash the boards on offense (along with Sullinger vacuuming up all those opponent misses).

The fourth guy on offense is PG Aaron Craft, a sophomore whose main role is setting up everyone else; his assist rate of 27 is the highest on the team amongst players who see a bunch of time. He doesn't shoot much but is efficient (53% on twos, high free throw rate) when he does. He can be prodded into the occasional three.

Where Craft thrives is on defense. He's by far the Big Ten's best at stealing the ball and his high-pressure defense starts opposing offenses in a hole even when he's not shooting down court for an easy bucket.

Past the big four it's a large array of young role-players. Guard Lenzelle Smith is the only other Buckeye to average over half of available minutes; he is an extremely low-usage player who rebounds, steals, and occasionally snipes from deep. Oddly, his FT% is exactly the same as his three-point percentage: 49%. Low sample size and all, but weird.

INTERLUDE

AAAAAAHHHHHHHAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

THE RESUME

OSU only played three top 100 Kenpom teams in the nonconference schedule, beating #13 Florida by 7, crushing Duke by 22 in the Big Ten/ACC challenge, and losing by 11 at Kansas in a game Jared Sullinger missed. They also beat SEC opponent South Carolina by eight; Not That USC also has losses against Elon and Tennessee State. So… yeah. Not good.

OSU's Big Ten schedule has been by far the easiest in the conference to date. Opponents are winning at a 39% clip in games not against Ohio State. The next softest schedules belong to Illinois and PSU at 45%; Michigan opponents are at 48%. This might make you feel a bit better if Ohio State hadn't annihilated all six of their victims. I mean, yeesh:

Northwestern: W 87-54

Nebraska: W 71-40

@ Iowa: W 76-47

Indiana: W 80-63

@ Nebraska: W 79-45

PSU: W 78-54

Their two losses in conference are by four at Indiana and by five at Illinois during the Chris Paul supernova; at home they are winning their Big Ten games by an average of 29 points.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four factors:

Factor

Offense (Rk)

Defense (Rk)

Avg

Effective FG%:

53.8 26

44.6 36

49

Turnover %:

17.1 16

26.7 5

20.8

Off. Reb. %:

34.9 91

23.6 3

32.5

FTA/FGA:

37.5 146

29.1 31

36.5

Er. That adds up to the country's top defense, something you probably could have extrapolated from the Big Ten scores above, and the #14 offense. Other notable tempo free numbers are a high pace for the Big Ten and a huge quantity of twos launched.

THE PROTIPS

Um, so, like… you can… No, probably not.

Maybe try to… Not likely, that.

If you move it like this and shake it like so and squint really hard? Still kind of seems like a ten point loss even then.

Drat. You said it.

Get insanely hot from three. Hey, maybe. If the random number generators fall right and a bunch of jacked-up three-pointers are dropping, Michigan can stay in contact. Michigan kept it close in a four-point loss at Crisler last year by going 11 of 24 from deep.

Convince Big Ten refs to put two early fouls on Sullinger in a home game. That's the ticket! While you're at it, I would like three on Buford and a pony. A pony made of lemon ice cream.

Make Tim Hardaway a superior defender. THE State University of South of Michigan's two primary non-Sullinger scorers are 6'6" and 6'7" athletes. Stu Douglass will draw one, leaving the other to either Novak or Hardaway. Neither of those seem like a good matchup, but Hardaway is a match for either in terms of length and jumping. Zack "I'm not a very good athlete" Novak may end up repeatedly bashing one in the head until he's ejected.

Unfortunately, Hardaway's athleticism hasn't made him a good defender so far in his career. If he doesn't get lit up 1) I'll be surprised and 2) Michigan will be a lot closer to winning.

Maybe zone? The closest thing to an Achilles heel OSU has is their outside shooting. If a 2-3 or 1-3-1 zone can cut off supply to Sullinger and befuddle Thomas, I'll take the tradeoff given OSU's blistering shooting inside. Luke Winn's latest power rankings* (which are excessively bullish on Michigan) reveal a surprising fact:

This year's Wolverines are heavily man-to-man, though, playing 87.9 percent of their possessions in man according to Synergy.

What's curious is that, in a small sample, Michigan's defense has been much better this year in zone, holding opponents to 0.667 PPP using a combination of 2-3 and 1-3-1, as opposed to 0.856 PPP in man. Beilein seems to be employing the zones as a very effective changeup, in groups of just a few possessions at a time.

If you had asked me about that I would have assumed those numbers were reversed because it seems like going to the 1-3-1 ends up in a dunk or an uncontested corner three most of the time.

They aren't, though, and if Michigan can't match up on OSU's main perimeter scorers maybe they should pack the post with a zone and live and die by OSU three point shooting. This might be the ticket according to Eleven Warriors:

The mixed bag of Buford’s inconsistency to date and the lack of a consistent three point threat to complement Buford on the perimeter and give Sullinger and Thomas more room to operate will most likely be to blame if the Buckeyes fall short of the Final Four.

*[Which also contain a factoid that reinforces my dislike for those long Hardaway two pointers via the lens of Michigan State:

As a team, 26.2 percent of Michigan State's jumpers fell into the Long Two category, and the team converted them at a clip of just 0.682 PPP. This wasn't the only reason the Spartans' offense ranked 62nd in the country in 2010-11, but it was part of it.

This season, the Spartans are being much smarter about their jump-shot selection: Just 17.3 percent of their jumpers are Long Twos. Their two-point field goal percentage has jumped from 46.7 percent last season to 52.9 percent now, and their offense ranks ninth nationally in efficiency.

Death to the long two.]

Watch your pockets, Trey Burke. Maybe get a fanny pack or something for your passport. Burke had one of his poorer performances of the year against lightning-quick Lewis Jackson last time out and now faces a guy who inverts the danger to defense. Free transition buckets are not points Michigan can afford to give up at OSU, and getting into the offense efficiently will be required if Michigan's also-very-good two point shooting is going to keep pace.

Beast up, Morgan. Morgan has been a critical component of Michigan's offense in spurts against Arkansas and Purdue. Unfortunately, he has struggled against Sullinger, averaging just over five points in three meetings last year and getting destroyed on the boards. Sullinger had thirteen offensive rebounds in Michigan games last year to Morgan's three.

Closing that performance gap somewhat is feasible.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

OSU by double digits. It seems like there's going to be a horrible run by OSU at some point, whether it's the first five minutes or ten minutes into the second half.

1. whether burke is so amped to play in front of the home crowd that he turns the ball over and looks to push even against numbers, or he plays under control, doesn't turn the ball over and slows down the break when it isn't there; and

There are certain aspects of Beilein's offense that are relatively opponent-independent. On paper there is no way Michigan should win this game. But you crank up the variance with 3 pointers, long possessions and backdoor cuts...This game could very well be the upside of variance.

Brian, I love the site--its football coverage has changed the way I watch the game. But PLEASE stop writing about basketball. I'm sure you've tried to hire Dylan away (or if you haven't, you should.) I know that you recognize that basketball isn't your area of expertise, and I also know that many of the people on the board are only casual fans, but there are some diehard bball fans (like myself) that frequent the site regularly and are incredibly disappointed with the way you cover the sport.

I guess what bothers me the most is that many of the inaccurate and ridiculous points that you make in basketball game recaps/previews are similar to the baseless football comments made by many media outlets. You criticize those outlets to no end, yet you leave yourself vulnerable to the same criticism regarding basketball. As the preeminent Michigan blog, MGoBlog deserves better basketball coverage. It's a shame that this is my first post because I do love the site and most of its content, and I respect Brian as a writer, but I just think it's time for a change in its basketball coverage.

But he doesn't really understand the nuances of the game like he does with football. It's why his football writing is compelling--he can create incredible comparisons/metaphors because he possesses the utmost knowledge of the sport. Most people can produce KenPom stats (which are flawed, but that's another argument) and offer opinions about basketball. All I'm saying is that the site could be taken to another level if the basketball writing was better. (By the way, I agree with the "wit," which is what I was trying to say when I said that I respected him as a writer.)

Also, I'm confused about "flamebait." I offered a suggestion for the site and made it pretty clear that I was a fan of the vast majority of Brian's work.

Personally, I'd rather have Brian's bball previews here than nothing. Yes I also have umhoops firmly planted in my tab set during bball season but I like getting the in-depth statistical analysis viewpoint from there and the "color" from here.

If your understanding of bball is so far above Brian's that you don't get anything out of his previews then by all means, skip reading them.

I do agree that it would be awesome if MGoBlog could hire Dylan as a bball expert though...

As long as people read UMHoops as well, then it doesn't matter to me if they read Brian. My point was basically that Brian's football writing is at such a high level that many people probably take his hoops knowledge as gospel, too. UMHoops does a great job of balancing the statistical side of things with intangibles and offers different viewpoints than Brian, so if people are reading both, that's great.

My complaint is that for all the great information that Dylan provides, there is not enough unique content. The game previews/recaps largely just feature kenpom numbers and other stats. I like the player analysis bullets but I feel like he can do more than that. Occassionally, there will be a post from Dave Merritt or a post analyzing Michigans recent trends ( ex: three point shooting slumps) but not with any sort of regularity. All the unique stuff he does post is great which might be why I want more of it. At least Brian gives some commentary in his posts (along with the great humor).

because "being a pompous know-it-all on your first ever post" isn't on the dropdown menu. Seriously, if you don't like Brian's basketball articles don't read them. You signed up for an account just to complain?

Plus, you haven't offered any kind of detailed criticism that demonstrates the superior grasp of the nuances of basketball you're insinuating you possess. You have a better analysis? Offer it.

I came off pompous, which was my fault. Even though I believe that I have more bball knowledge, there's no way for me to prove that in an Internet forum, and that wasn't why I posted. I just replied to somebody above about how I was trying to point out that Brian's word on bball shouldn't be taken as gospel. If people are reading both UMHoops and MGoBlog, then Brian can post away. I'm just worried that that's not happening. Having said that, wouldn't it be best/financially beneficial to consolidate the two sites?

Anyways, two off-the-top-of-my-head criticisms of a larger, big picture nature--

1. Brian's suggestion that mid-way through last year that Hardaway should stop shooting (clearly a mistake, Hardaway recruited based on his shooting ability, went on to be a huge factor in our tourney run)

2. The lack of support for Beilein up until the team went on a run at the end of last year, undeniably one of the game's top tacticians (Top 5 if you believe Coach K) and one of the most ethical men in the game. This last point might seem subjective, but given Brian's respect for RR's timeline implementing the spread and his expectation that Michigan's resources could turn RR into an even more successful coach than at WV, I was surprised he ignored this same rationale for Coach B.

You don't have to agree--I know many people at UMich right now echo my opinions about this site's bball coverage. But then again, this site is for alumni, high school students, etc., so by no means do I want to speak for them or all Michigan students. The Board has spoken, and Brian shall continue.

I'm not saying that MGoBlog is the best place to go for in-depth basketball analysis. When I want that I watch a game that Dick Vitale is calling.

I guess my point was more that this site doesn't owe you anything; you can read it for free. There's also no penalty for not reading it. But you're acting offended that the BB coverage isn't more like another site also available for free to anyone in possession of an internet. Just read that site. Or contribute something here if you feel so inclined.

But to your examples, I don't remember him saying Hardaway should stop shooting last year (but I could be wrong, so if you have an example, so be it). He may have said that Hardaway should stop taking bad shots, which is totally different.

The Beilein thing is maybe more on point, but until the team went on that mid-season run, it was looking like Beilein's four years at M to that point would be: losing season, improbable tourney appearance, losing season, NIT at best. Skepticism wasn't totally unwarranted.

much harder to actually do. If you think his basketball writing is so poor, you can utilize the "Diary" feature and enlighten us with your basketball acumen and insights. Seriously.

And feel free to disagree with particular points he makes or analysis he offers, rather than just vaguely criticizing his own "inaccurate and ridiculous points" with no counterpoint. What's so ridiculous or inaccurate about what he wrote, and how do you disagree?

That's what a discussion forum is all about - exchanging points of view and opinions about the relevant topic at hand. So far, your contribution reads thusly:

Yes, your specific examples from last season are very relevant to the analysis of this season's basketball games. I'm sure you can think of a better reason why the analysis of the upcoming osu game is inaccurate and ridiculous than "last year, you said xxxx"

Just because he is a white point guard, doesn't mean he shoots his free throws well :) He is only shooting 67% from the line. Not exactly as efficient as the article makes it sound. He has messed with his stroke and it has looked a little strange at times this year.

I don't expect this to be a win, but hopefully UM can keep it close. A close loss would be nice for this team in terms of confidence and cohesiveness moving forward.

My bigger question, and one that will probably never be answered, is how Thad Matta is able to consistently bring in top-10 talent to a school where basketball is ALWAYS #2, and by a wide margin? I mean, Florida won two titles not that long ago and while Donovan can still recruit, they haven't come close to recapturing the aura they had with Noah and co. I'm not insinuating that there are nefarious forces involved because I have no proof, but the rise of the Buckeyes as a basketball power continues to boggle my mind. Of course, if we suddenly heard that Sullinger and Bufford were seen tooling around campus with 2012 Escalades wouldn't shock me either.

Ehh, as much as I'd like to think something fishy was going on there, Matta did spend 4 years on staff at Butler and 3 years at Xavier, where he did a lot of Indiana recruiting (if I remember correctly). I think he had some pretty well established relationships with a lot of coaches in Indiana at the time he took the OSU job.

I don't know if Matta's on the up-and-up or not (it wouldn't shock me if he were dirty), but
OSU wasn't bad under his predecessor, Jim O'Brien. They went to the Final Four in 1999 and won Big Ten titles in 2000 and 2002. They won another Big Ten title in 2006, when Oden and Conley were high school seniors. They ended up vacating some of these wins, but on the court they've basically been a Big Ten power since Value City Arena opened.

That's a little misleading, because they probably would have gone in 2005 if they hadn't been banned from the postseason that year. That was Matta's first season and it was generally considered a success.

is a great basketball recruiting state. Diebler, Buford, Sibert, Sullinger, Mullens, Koufos were all from the state, so it might not be too hard to keep them close to home.

Having said that, Amir Williams' recruitment seemed sketchy. For a long time it seemed like he was either coming here or going to Duke. O$U wasn't even in the picture, and then he committed there. That was a tough one to figure out.