2014-12-21

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 16, Saturday

New England over Seattle

My simulations now show that Green Bay has clinched, though other sites do not. I can only assume this means I have a tiebreaker setup wrong. I tried to construct a scenario in which they would miss the playoffs, but I couldn't.

First, I had them lose their next 2 games, to finish 10-6. Philadelphia has to win next week to go 10-6 as well, otherwise Green Bay would definitely be in. Against Philadelphia directly, Green Bay would win on conference record, 7-5 to 6-6. Against Philadelphia and Seattle both at 10-6, Seattle would win to get the #5 seed, but then we're back to the Green Bay vs Philadelphia scenario for #6.

So, that must mean it requires Dallas to be 10-6 as well as Philadelphia, so that the Eagles win the division. Either Seattle will win a game to clinch #5 (or better), or will also be 10-6. Then, they'd clinch #6 based on conference record, and it would be down to Dallas vs Green Bay for #6. Here are the tiebreakers:

I'm pretty sure Green Bay's current .443 SOV can't be beat by Dallas, which is at .406. Maybe this is a case of making no assumptions of SOV by default until the last week, on the part of the other websites. Or, maybe I've got something wrong. If you've read this far, and can see how the Packers could miss the playoffs, I'd love to hear from you.

TEAM

Record

Strength

Div

Plyff

WC

Qtr

Semi

Champ

NE

11-3

0.744

+

+

98.936

61.694

37.369

22.767

BAL

9-5

0.706

27.000

70.500

42.100

20.760

11.205

6.312

SEA

10-4

0.704

49.643

99.257

83.256

49.971

29.293

15.077

GB

10-4

0.681

51.045

+

79.985

45.684

25.089

12.250

IND

10-4

0.679

+

+

58.248

28.929

14.097

7.508

DEN

11-3

0.656

+

+

98.527

50.696

22.305

11.316

KC

8-6

0.649

-

35.602

18.640

8.029

3.681

1.838

BUF

8-6

0.630

-

14.847

7.010

3.057

1.351

0.647

PHI

9-6

0.612

8.237

8.237

3.881

1.780

0.829

0.343

DET

10-4

0.606

48.955

+

72.093

34.800

15.477

6.337

ARI

11-3

0.604

50.357

+

82.170

36.616

16.593

6.754

HOU

7-7

0.601

-

2.979

1.340

0.469

0.214

0.096

DAL

10-4

0.596

91.763

92.506

46.982

21.015

9.425

3.766

PIT

9-5

0.589

33.709

70.893

32.736

12.284

4.841

2.114

MIA

7-7

0.554

-

-

-

-

-

-

CIN

9-4-1

0.548

39.292

74.830

30.644

10.436

3.681

1.459

SD

9-6

0.525

-

30.349

11.818

3.648

1.257

0.471

STL

6-8

0.487

-

-

-

-

-

-

NO

6-8

0.482

57.411

57.411

19.241

6.464

2.180

0.648

ATL

5-9

0.462

28.829

28.829

9.146

2.905

0.930

0.261

NYG

5-9

0.456

-

-

-

-

-

-

SF

7-8

0.455

-

-

-

-

-

-

MIN

6-8

0.455

-

-

-

-

-

-

CLE

7-7

0.446

-

-

-

-

-

-

CAR

5-8-1

0.362

13.761

13.761

3.246

0.766

0.183

0.038

CHI

5-9

0.304

-

-

-

-

-

-

WAS

4-11

0.287

-

-

-

-

-

-

TB

2-12

0.281

-

-

-

-

-

-

NYJ

3-11

0.244

-

-

-

-

-

-

JAC

3-12

0.196

-

-

-

-

-

-

TEN

2-13

0.194

-

-

-

-

-

-

OAK

2-12

0.193

-

-

-

-

-

-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)