Opinion + Doha trade talks | The Guardianhttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/commentisfree+business/dohatradetalks
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World trade: cottoning onhttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/nov/15/world-trade-doha-subsidies
The terms of trade have become a global preoccupation - maybe now the US and EU will finally end their abuse of subsidies<p>As the balance of economic power slowly tilts towards the east, terms of trade have become a global preoccupation. It is a rare moment of opportunity for the world's new strongmen – China, Brazil and India. With their help, it could also be a moment of opportunity for the least-developed countries. Next year will mark the 10th anniversary of the <a href="http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dda_e/dda_e.htm" title="Doha Development Agenda">Doha Development Agenda</a> which, despite a decade of disappointment in its efforts to remove barriers to trade, could still be the engine of growth for Africa. The Bric countries have already shown that they are ready to use their new muscle-power. They could be the element that has been missing in redressing the balance of global trade and finally forcing the US and the EU to end their abuse of subsidies.</p><p>For sub-Saharan Africa, the most pressing issue is not the currency values that preoccupied the G20, but the price of raw materials. That is what shapes both the creation of national infrastructure and whether a child in a rural village can afford to stay in school. The most transparent example, highlighted today in a new report from the <a href="http://www.fairtrade.org.uk/" title="Fairtrade">Fairtrade organisation</a>, is cotton. Per pound of production, the EU pays out the biggest subsidy. It costs three times more to grow cotton in Greece than it does in, say, Malawi (which is banned by the IMF from subsidising its cotton farmers). But the giant in the export market is the US, the source of between 40% and 60% of world trade. Growers there get 14 cents for every pound of the white gold, at a cost of around $3bn a year. Recently, a crack appeared in the edifice that could prove the beginning of the end. After years of attempting to find a negotiated end to American subsidies, Brazil announced it would impose retaliatory <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8556920.stm" title="trade sanctions on 100 US products from milk powder to motors. ">trade sanctions on 100 US products</a>. Unusually, they were backed by the World Trade Organisation. Within three months, Washington had climbed down. Not that the subsidies went: instead, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/02/AR2010060204228.html" title="Brazil is to receive an annual payment of £142.7m">Brazil's cotton growers are to share an annual payment of £142.7m</a>. This bizarre state of affairs, where the US is paying off agribusiness both at home and in Brazil, may just be mad enough to persuade Congress to make the next farm bill, due soon, a rebalancing of domestic concerns and free trade. Certainly President Obama's <a href="http://www.einnews.com/pr-news/226510-slash-3-billion-from-u-s-farm-bill-deficit-cutters-see-ag-as-big-target" title="Deficit Reduction Commission has spotted the possibility">Deficit Reduction Commission has spotted the possibility</a>. The EU could follow suit in negotiations, also about to start, on a new common agricultural policy.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/nov/15/world-trade-doha-subsidies">Continue reading...</a>Doha trade talksInternational tradeBusinessEthical and green livingFair tradeGlobal developmentTrade and developmentMon, 15 Nov 2010 00:02:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/nov/15/world-trade-doha-subsidiesEditorial2010-11-15T00:02:00ZAfrica needs trade, not aid | Ela Soyemihttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/apr/17/election-international-aid-policies
Fairer trade is the best way to lift Africa out of poverty. Yet the main parties' international development policies focus only on aid<p>This week the three major parties launched their election manifestos and have all promised to stay in line with "the UN target of spending 0.7% of gross national income by 2013.</p><p>Labour's manifesto outlines that "in Africa, Labour has made aid, trade, conflict prevention and good governance a priority". But if passion can be measured in wordage, it is clear that a future Labour government will be clearly on the side of aid over trade where developing countries are concerned (a very small paragraph is dedicated to say, very basically, that trade is useful). Speaking in his South Shields constituency on Monday, the foreign secretary David Miliband reiterated the commitment: "Think about how we've increased international aid budgets," he said. So Bob Geldof will be happy, but African nations interested in taking charge of their own fates should beware.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/apr/17/election-international-aid-policies">Continue reading...</a>General election 2010Manifestos 2010WTOInternational tradeDoha trade talksGlobal developmentAidTrade and developmentSat, 17 Apr 2010 09:00:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/apr/17/election-international-aid-policiesEla Soyemi2010-04-17T09:00:00ZLamy's lament on trade liberalisation | Larry Elliotthttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/jan/28/davos-wto
<strong>Davos:</strong> There may be the will to build global institutions to run the world economy, but let's get real: nation states still rule<p>Financial markets. Greenhouse gases. Currencies. Fish. <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/davos" title="Guardian coverage of the WEF at Davos">The World Economic Forum in Davos</a> has had sessions on all these pressing issues this week.</p><p>The problems are easy to identify. Too little regulation of the banks in the boom years, a risk that <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/jan/28/davos-larry-elliott-development-aid" title="Guardian: Davos: Funding switch threatens aid to developing world, campaigner warns">rising global temperatures</a> will cause irreparable damage to the environment, a world economy that is divided between deficit countries and surplus countries, and a decline in fish stocks.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/jan/28/davos-wto">Continue reading...</a>DavosBusinessWTODoha trade talksClimate changeGlobal climate talksGlobal economyGlobalisationWorld newsRegulatorsEuropean UnionForeign policyEconomicsEconomic policyDavos 2010Thu, 28 Jan 2010 19:30:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/jan/28/davos-wtoLarry Elliott2010-01-28T19:30:00ZCleaning house at the WTO | Kevin Gallagher and Timothy Wisehttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/dec/01/wto-dohatradetalks
The US and other wealthy countries continue to fight the same stale battles over international trade. It's time to move on<p>This week, the 10th anniversary of the infamous "<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/special_report/1999/11/99/battle_for_free_trade/544769.stm">Battle in Seattle</a>," ministers assembled in Geneva with renewed hopes of <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9C9PK901.htm">reviving world trade talks</a>. To dampen expectations, World Trade Organisation chief Pascal Lamy bills the event as a mere "housekeeping session," rather than full-fledged negotiations.</p><p>There is no question the WTO needs to clean house. The organisation charged with developing a fair and legitimate multilateral trading system has been left in the dust of world economic events.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/dec/01/wto-dohatradetalks">Continue reading...</a>WTODoha trade talksInternational tradeEconomicsFinancial crisisUS foreign policyObama administrationChinaIndiaUS newsBrazilWorld newsAmericasAsia PacificTue, 01 Dec 2009 22:30:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/dec/01/wto-dohatradetalksKevin Gallagher and Timothy Wise2009-12-01T22:30:00ZTime to kill off Doha | John Hilaryhttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/nov/25/doha-round-trade-talks-wto
Pascal Lamy is wrong: the Doha round of talks offers nothing to the world's poorest countries. The WTO has failed to deliver<p>Monday 30 November marks the 10th anniversary of the <a href="http://www.battleinseattlemovie.com/" title="Battle in Seattle: The movie">Battle in Seattle</a>, the day in 1999 when 100,000 protesters took to the streets and prevented the World Trade Organisation from launching its millennium round of free trade talks. The WTO is marking the occasion with another ministerial summit, and is understandably nervous – not because it fears another spectacular uprising (the summit is being held in genteel Geneva) but because the future of the WTO as a credible institution once again hangs in the balance.</p><p>Foiled in Seattle, the WTO did eventually manage to launch its new round of trade negotiations in Doha two years later. A barrage of <a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=d5PTbg9FLUQC&amp;dq=jawara+kwa&amp;printsec=frontcover&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=1Wz5QdRIs7&amp;sig=-5Nwu98oyhYMmo5NYIybSGbtKco&amp;hl=en&amp;ei=fcULS_fJBoyX4gb6kfiRBA&amp;sa=X&amp;oi=book_result&amp;ct=result&amp;resnum=10&amp;ved=0CCsQ6AEwCQ" title="Book: Behind the scenes at WTO">threats and blandishments</a> overcame developing country resistance to the idea of starting another round of trade liberalisation, at a time when many of their economies were still coming to terms with the problems caused by the previous <a href="http://www.twnside.org.sg/title/hist-cn.htm" title="Third World Network: Uruguay round - a historical perspective">Uruguay round</a> of trade talks, which concluded in 1994.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/nov/25/doha-round-trade-talks-wto">Continue reading...</a>Doha trade talksWTOGlobal developmentSocietyWorld newsWed, 25 Nov 2009 17:00:01 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/nov/25/doha-round-trade-talks-wtoJohn Hilary2009-11-25T17:00:01ZWe must seal the deal on world trade | Pascal Lamyhttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/nov/23/world-trade-doha-round-deal
The world's poor will pay the price for WTO failure if negotiators do not seize the day and settle the Doha round<p>Global trade contracted in 2009 at a rate not seen since the Depression in the 30s, and those paying the heaviest price are those who can least afford it. So, when trade ministers from the World Trade Organisation's 153 members <a href="http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/minist_e/min09_e/min09_e.htm" title="WTO: Seventh WTO Ministerial Conference">gather in Geneva later this month</a>, the issue of how the WTO and the global trading system can help the poorest countries will be high on the agenda.</p><p>Driven largely by collapsing domestic demand and production levels, but also by a shortage of affordable trade finance, trade volumes will fall by more than 10% this year. Whether trade will recover next year is an open question. Despite some evidence that trade volumes grew over the summer, recovery has been patchy – and so fragile that a sudden shock in equity or currency markets could once again undermine consumer and business confidence, leading to a further deterioration of trade.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/nov/23/world-trade-doha-round-deal">Continue reading...</a>Doha trade talksEconomicsPovertyWorld newsGlobal developmentBusinessSocietySocial exclusionTrade and developmentMon, 23 Nov 2009 12:30:01 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/nov/23/world-trade-doha-round-dealPascal Lamy2009-11-23T12:30:01ZG8: the wrong body, the wrong members, the wrong time | Larry Elliotthttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/jul/07/g8-berlusconi-trade-aid
This summit is even more of a shambles than usual. But there are a couple of reasons to give the G8 a brief stay of execution<p>Let's hear it for Silvio Berlusconi. A bargain basement Benny Hill he may be, but the prime minister fonder of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jun/05/berlusconi-model-pictures" title="cavorting with young women">cavorting with young women</a> than keeping promises to the world's poorest countries has helped expose what a cynical shambles the G8 summit has become.</p><p>Officials say that this year's shindig in L'Aquila will be the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/jul/05/g8-g20-international-aid-development" title="most pointless ever">most pointless ever</a> – and, believe me, that is saying something. It is up to the host country to set the tone for the meeting, which involves preparing an agenda and chivvying the other, reluctant, members of the club to sign up to a high-minded initiative to eradicate poverty from Africa, tackle climate change and fight the good fight against protectionism by completing the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/jul/21/globaleconomy.wto" title="Doha round ">Doha round </a>of trade talks. The G8 commitment to these plans lasts as long as it takes the motorcade to hightail it back to the airport.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/jul/07/g8-berlusconi-trade-aid">Continue reading...</a>World newsG8Doha trade talksSilvio BerlusconiItalyBarack ObamaGlobal developmentClimate changePoliticsEuropeTue, 07 Jul 2009 22:30:01 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/jul/07/g8-berlusconi-trade-aidLarry Elliott2009-07-07T22:30:01ZAgustin Carstens: The world's poor are feeling the effects of the global financial crisishttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/apr/23/imf-worldbank-economic-crisis
The world's poorest countries didn't create the global financial turmoil – but they suffer its harshest consequences<p>As ministers prepare for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/spring/2009/index.htm">spring meetings</a> in Washington this weekend, it would be natural for attention to focus primarily, as it did with the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/apr/02/g20-agreements-at-a-glance">recent G20 summit</a>, on dramas over stimulus packages, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/apr/23/world-bank-warns-prolonged-recession">banking rescues and regulatory disputes</a> among the world's largest and most affluent economies. </p><p>Make no mistake, these issues matter. Where decision-makers come down on them will have consequences beyond their own borders. Reviving demand, rebuilding confidence and putting financial sectors back into business in the major economies all represent critical elements of the roadmap out of the financial and economic crisis.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/apr/23/imf-worldbank-economic-crisis">Continue reading...</a>International Monetary Fund (IMF)World BankGlobal recessionG20International tradeFinancial crisisEconomicsDoha trade talksMexicoWorld newsUS newsAmericasFri, 24 Apr 2009 10:30:01 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/apr/23/imf-worldbank-economic-crisisAgustin Carstens2009-04-24T10:30:01ZLara Birkes and Jake Colvin: President Obama will find trade crops up on the international agendahttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/feb/18/trade-obama-administration-economy
President Obama may not want to make international trade one of his top priorities, but he may have no choice<p>Conventional wisdom from Washington to Geneva holds that Barack Obama is not inclined to highlight trade issues, choosing to concentrate on domestic job creation and postponing uncomfortable conversations with Congress and unions. While President Obama may not count trade among his top priorities, his administration will face growing demands for US leadership on the subject - starting with his <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN1843553320090218">visit to Canada</a> today.</p><p>Although President Obama's instincts appear to favour open markets, he has been largely silent on trade thus far. The administration was conspicuously absent during the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/davos/7862723.stm">debate over trade</a> at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, where leaders reiterated the gravity of the economic crisis and warned against the adoption of protectionist measures. More broadly, the benefit of open markets has been largely missing from the narrative on economic recovery.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/feb/18/trade-obama-administration-economy">Continue reading...</a>Obama administrationUS economyCanadaDoha trade talksWTODavosStephen HarperGlobal recessionUS politicsAmericasThu, 19 Feb 2009 22:00:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/feb/18/trade-obama-administration-economyLara Birkes and Jake Colvin2009-02-19T22:00:00ZLinda Kaucher on the Doha trade talkshttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/dec/13/dohatradetalks-wto
The Doha trade talks in Geneva next week will have a huge effect on the UK – in a way that few people realise<p>You might think that WTO trade agreements affect only developing countries, and the chatter in Geneva will mostly be about agriculture and manufactured goods. The service-based economy in the UK won't be affected, right? Wrong.</p><p>It is the <a href="http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/serv_e/gatsintr_e.htm">General Agreement on Trade in Services</a> (Gats) that is most relevant for a services economy like that of the UK – a deregulatory agreement, which forces economies to open up to multinationals while preventing governments from regulating them. And 'services' underpin all other forms of trade.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/dec/13/dohatradetalks-wto">Continue reading...</a>Doha trade talksWTOPeter MandelsonSat, 13 Dec 2008 11:00:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/dec/13/dohatradetalks-wtoLinda Kaucher2008-12-13T11:00:00ZKevin Gallagher: The developing world deserves fair international trade treatieshttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2008/dec/08/doha-trade-wto-development
Current proposals on international trade amount to deregulation in the developing world and protectionism for the rich<p>In Lewis Carroll's classic, Through the Looking Glass, the Red Queen says, "It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place". In the turbulent wake of the financial crisis, developing countries find themselves in a perilous new "wonderland" where they will need all the running room they can get.</p><p>Contrary to most public pronouncements, rushing to a global trade deal, as the so-called G20 leaders <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/16/business/worldbusiness/16summit.html?em">proposed in their own Wonderland moment</a> in November, could take developing countries in the wrong direction.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2008/dec/08/doha-trade-wto-development">Continue reading...</a>WTOInternational tradeDoha trade talksUS newsEconomicsEconomic policyWorld newsMon, 08 Dec 2008 09:30:11 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2008/dec/08/doha-trade-wto-developmentKevin Gallagher2008-12-08T09:30:11ZDouglas Alexander: The rapid spread of the financial crisis highlights the importance of pressing ahead with the Doha trade talkshttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/nov/28/dohatradetalks-creditcrunch
The rapid spread of the financial crisis highlights the importance of pressing ahead with the Doha trade talks<p>Amid the financial turmoil gripping the international economy it is easy to overlook the millions who are less fortunate than many of us.</p><p>There is no doubt that families in Britain are facing tough times. The cost of heating our homes and filling up our cars has gone up this year, and we know the effects of the global downturn will be felt for many months to come. </p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/nov/28/dohatradetalks-creditcrunch">Continue reading...</a>Doha trade talksCredit crunchDouglas AlexanderFri, 28 Nov 2008 07:00:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/nov/28/dohatradetalks-creditcrunchDouglas Alexander2008-11-28T07:00:00ZRichard Youngs: The credit crisis could even strengthen the economic and political liberalism at the heart of EU foreign policyhttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/nov/21/comment-credit-crisis-eu-foreign-policy
No, and the credit crisis could even strengthen the economic and political liberalism at the heart of EU foreign policy<p>The G20 meeting last weekend may have encapsulated the global concern over the credit crisis but it also revealed the disunity between <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/eu">EU</a> member states on how to tackle the malaise. Away from the economics of the crisis, attention and debate within the EU is also beginning to turn to the broader political impact of the financial crisis. </p><p>The question of whether the crisis will affect the EU's broader foreign policies may seem peripheral as the credit crisis groans on, but it could have a significant impact on the future of the EU. Many voices are already suggesting that the crisis is likely to mark a turning point in international relations of the same magnitude as those produced by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the attacks of 9/11. Many predict a weakening of support for economic liberalism beyond the immediate banking crisis. And many also foresee the crisis triggering a fundamental shift in the global balance of power; even infecting the liberal political values that ostensibly lie at the heart of European foreign policy. In short, the fear is taking root that the financial crisis will undermine the principal tenets of western-style global liberalism and encourage a retrenchment in US and European diplomacy. </p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/nov/21/comment-credit-crisis-eu-foreign-policy">Continue reading...</a>EconomicsCredit crunchGlobal recessionGlobal economyEconomic policyInternational tradeDoha trade talksFri, 21 Nov 2008 19:00:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/nov/21/comment-credit-crisis-eu-foreign-policyRichard Youngs2008-11-21T19:00:00ZKevin Gallagher and Timothy Wise: Putting Doha trade negotiations on life supporthttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2008/sep/22/dohatradetalks.usa
Global trade negotiations can be revived if rich nations accept that, for developing countries, one size does not fit all<p>Though <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/jul/30/wto.india">global trade talks collapsed in July</a> for the third time in seven years, an elite group of seven influential countries has sent representatives to Geneva to try once again to revive negotiations. They shouldn't bother. They should leave the so-called Doha development round on life support until they can all remember why they agreed to dedicate the negotiations to improving the prospects of developing countries.</p><p>Such a respite is not a crisis. It's an opportunity to bring development back into the negotiations. Nor does the breakdown demonstrate the failure of the WTO. Just the opposite. In a system of one country, one vote, developing countries were, for the first time, able to defend their economic interests. </p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2008/sep/22/dohatradetalks.usa">Continue reading...</a>Doha trade talksUS newsWorld newsWTOEconomic policyMon, 22 Sep 2008 16:04:05 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2008/sep/22/dohatradetalks.usaKevin Gallagher and Timothy Wise2008-09-22T16:04:05ZDani Rodrik: The Doha trade talks were never about developmenthttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/aug/08/wto.internationalaidanddevelopment
The latest round of trade talks were never really about development. So their collapse doesn't change anything<p>Will they or won't they? Will the world's trade ministers eventually sign a new <a href="http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/doha1_e.htm">multilateral trade agreement</a> that reduces agricultural subsidies and industrial tariffs, or will they walk away empty-handed? The <a href="http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/07/business/trade.php">saga has been ongoing</a> since November 2001, when the current round of negotiations was launched in Doha, Qatar, with numerous subsequent ups and downs, near-collapses, and extensions.</p><p>The latest round of talks in Geneva has once again <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/30/business/worldbusiness/30trade.html?ref=business">failed to produce an agreement</a>. Judging by what the financial press and some economists say, the stakes could not be higher.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/aug/08/wto.internationalaidanddevelopment">Continue reading...</a>WTOGlobal developmentEconomic policyEconomicsUS newsWorld newsWorld BankDoha trade talksInternational tradeFri, 08 Aug 2008 19:30:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/aug/08/wto.internationalaidanddevelopmentDani Rodrik2008-08-08T19:30:00ZPaul Rayment: Why a Doha breakdown wouldn't spell disasterhttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/jul/21/globalisation.globaleconomy
Ignore the urgent rhetoric surrounding the Doha round of trade talks. It's time for a rethink<p>We are being warned, yet again, by leaders of the G7, their trade officials and sundry commentators that failure to reach a successful conclusion to the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/jul/21/globaleconomy.globalisation">Doha round of trade negotiations</a> will put the entire international trading system at risk and with it the continued economic growth and prosperity of the world economy. Gordon Brown has described this week's special meeting of trade ministers in Geneva as a "make or break" event taking place "at one minute to midnight" with billions of dollars on the line for the world's poorest people.</p><p>There is a large dose of irresponsible rhetoric in all this, no doubt intended to alarm the negotiators. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Max_Corden">Max Corden</a>, a distinguished and level-headed trade economist, noted many years ago that most economic policy changes other than macroeconomic ones have only small effects on GDP and "the effects of trade policy changes are often overrated". </p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/jul/21/globalisation.globaleconomy">Continue reading...</a>GlobalisationGlobal economyWorld newsDoha trade talksInternational tradeMon, 21 Jul 2008 17:30:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/jul/21/globalisation.globaleconomyPaul Rayment2008-07-21T17:30:00ZGallagher and Wise: The latest attempt to revive Doha trade roundhttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/jun/27/economy.wto
Developing countries should refuse to revive the international trade round if they get little in return<p>The head of the World Trade Organisation, Pascal Lamy, has <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121441856106904097.html">announced yet another "mini-ministerial"</a> to try and hammer out a conclusion to the <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dfa460d0-1afd-11db-b164-0000779e2340.html">contentious Doha round</a> of global talks. <br> <br>As rich country leaders try to rally negotiators for this newest "make-or-break" deadline - in what has become the most imminent agreement in history - developing country negotiators should remember why the proposals on the table deserve to be sent back to the drawing board. The deal nearing completion has limited gains and real costs.<br> <br>With projected welfare gains of less than $16 billion (0.2% of developing country national income), tariff losses of at least $63bn, and projected declines in the relative value of exports, developing countries have little to gain from rushing to conclude Doha.<br> <br>Given the proliferation of lofty rhetoric about Doha and poverty reduction, the public can be excused for thinking this agreement is all about poverty and development. The <a href="http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:20040979~menuPK:34480~pagePK:36694~piPK:116742~theSitePK:4607,00.html">World Bank</a> modeled the gains from a "likely" Doha deal. Under this scenario (which is more ambitious than the proposals now on the table), global gains projected for 2015 are just $96bn, with only $16bn going to the developing world. <br> <br>Of the benefits projected for developing countries, only a few see most of the gains. According to the World Bank, half of all the benefits to developing countries are expected to flow to just eight countries: Argentina, Brazil (which stands to receive 23% of the developing country benefit), China, India, Mexico, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam. The Middle East and Africa would be worse of from this deal.<br> <br>There are also real costs for the developing world.<br> <br>Total tariff losses for developing countries under the "non-agricultural market access" - or manufactured goods - aspect of the negotiations could be $63bn, or almost four times the level of benefits. For many developing countries, slashing tariffs will not only restrict the ability of these countries to foster new industries so that they may integrate into the world economy, but it will also limit government funds to support such infant industries and to maintain social programs for the poor. A majority of developing countries rely on tariffs for more than one-quarter of their tax revenue. For smaller nations with little diversification in their economies, tariff revenues provide the core of government budgets. <br> <br>A likely deal will also contribute to declining terms of trade for developing countries, the ratio of export to import prices. This measure is considered a crucial estimate of the extent to which a developing country is moving up the value chain in the global economy, away from primary production and into manufacturing or knowledge-based economic activities. Declining terms of trade can accentuate balance of payments problems in countries and make the need to diversify into other export products ever more urgent. <br> <br>Under a likely deal, world prices for agricultural products increase and manufacturing prices decrease slightly or remain unchanged. According to the <a href="http://www.carnegieendowment.org/">Carnegie Endowment for International Peace</a> these price changes negatively affect the terms of trade for developing countries. The report explains that for many countries the rise in world prices for imported food and agricultural goods is countered with a decline in world prices for their light manufactured exports, such as apparel. <br> <br>To diversify, developing countries often look at the example of the US and European economies, and more recently, the economies of South Korea and China. These countries diversified away from primary commodities and light manufacturing while slowly opening their economies. They moved into the world marketplace strategically, protecting their major exporting industries in order to nurture them to compete in world markets. <br> <br>China's computer maker, Lenovo, is an example. The company was created by the government and protected for years; it <a href="http://news.cnet.com/IBM-sells-PC-group-to-Lenovo/2100-1042_3-5482284.html">purchased IBM's PC division</a> and is now a world leader in high-technology electronics. Acer Computer from Taiwan and Hyundai and Kia Motors from South Korea followed similar long-range development paths. <br> <br>Further cuts in manufacturing tariffs and services regulation in developing countries, which are under consideration in the current Doha proposals, will <a href="http://www.fpif.org/papers/03trade/index.html">make it more difficult</a> for developing countries to replicate these efforts. This loss of so-called "policy space" is why many developing countries see current rich-country proposals as tantamount to saying: "do as we say, not as we do." <br> <br>Developing countries should pull the plug on this moribund round until rich countries can agree to a new framework that lives up to <a href="http://www.maketradefair.com/en/assets/english/aroundforfree.pdf">Doha's promise</a> to be a "Development Round" that favours poorer countries.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/jun/27/economy.wto">Continue reading...</a>Economic policyWTOEconomicsUS newsWorld newsDoha trade talksInternational tradeFri, 27 Jun 2008 18:30:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/jun/27/economy.wtoTimothy Wise and Kevin Gallagher2008-06-27T18:30:00ZArrested developmenthttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/aug/10/post290
The failure of the Doha round talks may not have been a total one, but the future of world trade is still precarious.<p>Hopes for a development round in world trade - opening up opportunities for developing countries to grow, and for reducing poverty - now seem dashed. Though crocodile tears may be shed all around, the extent of disappointment needs to be calibrated: Pascal Lamy, the head of the World Trade Organization, had long worked to diminish expectations, so much so that it was clear that whatever emerged would bring, at most, limited benefits to poor countries.</p><p>The failure hardly comes as a surprise: the United States and the European Union had long ago reneged on the promises they made in 2001 at Doha to rectify the imbalances of the last round of trade negotiations - a round so unfair that the world's poorest countries were actually made worse off.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/aug/10/post290">Continue reading...</a>Doha trade talksInternational tradeThu, 10 Aug 2006 08:40:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/aug/10/post290Joseph Stiglitz2006-08-10T08:40:00ZThe sky will not fall inhttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/jul/25/chickenlittleandthewto
The World Trade Organisation's Doha round talks are on the brink of collapse. Who cares?<p>So, it appears that the <a href="http://business.theguardian.com/story/0,,1828027,00.html">Doha round</a> of trade talks <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/dfa460d0-1afd-11db-b164-0000779e2340.html">is collapsing</a>. Oh no! The world trade system will fall apart, there will never be any trade talks ever again, we will go back to the dark ages of protectionism and the 1930s will happen all over again! Woe is me! It is all the fault of those damnable Americans/Europeans/insert preference. Now everyone in the Third World will starve to death and it is the fault of the Common Agricultural Policy.</p><p>Hooey, I say. Trade negotiators are notorious drama queens, and no round of WTO talks would be complete without at least one press conference featuring them all looking grave and saying things like "we stand on the brink", "there is no possible solution" and "for heaven's sake, won't somebody think of the developing countries!". Then they all go away and have a little chat in private and the talks start up again. Forgive me for not playing the game this year.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/jul/25/chickenlittleandthewto">Continue reading...</a>Global economyDoha trade talksInternational tradeTue, 25 Jul 2006 15:02:15 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/jul/25/chickenlittleandthewtoDaniel Davies2006-07-25T15:02:15ZLeader: World tradehttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/jul/04/wto.comment
<p>The stated aim of the Doha talks was for the world's wealthiest nations, such as the US, the European Union and Japan, to tackle their trade barriers and huge agricultural subsidies, in return for increased market access on all sides. Instead, the talks have hardened into a familiar pattern - the US versus the rest of the world. Hopes now rest on the meeting of the Group of Eight leading industrial nations in St Petersburg later this month. Another failure there, and the very real danger is that the US will offer a stark choice at the end of this month: give in to its demands or see the US walk away, leading to the collapse of the round.</p><p>For those who want a positive outcome, the frustration is that there is the outline of a perfectly achieveable deal, albeit not quite on the negotiating table. In simple terms, this would involve the EU and Brazil making mutual offers on agriculture and industry and the US giving ground on farming subsidies and lowering its demands of developing countries. Meanwhile, the poorest developing countries receive meaningful concessions allowing them privileged access for their exports while continuing to protect any vulnerable parts of their economies. International trade talks being what they are, the reality is much more complex, but the chief obstacle to even that minimal deal being achieved is US intransigence. The problem is not so much with the Bush administration and its trade negotiators, but in Congress - a crucial constituency, since it would have ultimate approval. With elections looming Congress remains of a mercantilist bent. The chances of it supporting concessions on subsidies are fading fast.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/jul/04/wto.comment">Continue reading...</a>WTOWorld newsDoha trade talksInternational tradeMon, 03 Jul 2006 23:12:14 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/jul/04/wto.commentLeader2006-07-03T23:12:14Z