Uh oh: Mason-Dixon poll puts Reid up by 7

posted at 10:12 am on July 16, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

The good news: Harry Reid still can’t get above the low 40s in the new Las Vegas Review-Journal polling in Nevada’s Senate race. The bad news: Sharron Angle just fell out of the 40s altogether. Reid now leads Angle, 44/37, in a poll conducted by Mason-Dixon among likely voters:

The Mason-Dixon poll showed that if the general election were held now, Reid would win 44 percent to 37 percent for Angle. Ten percent were undecided, 5 percent would choose “none of these candidates,” and the remaining 4 percent would pick another candidate on the ballot.

That is the best Reid has done against Angle this year in a series of Mason-Dixon polls. Previously, the two had been locked in a statistical dead heat with Angle finishing just ahead of Reid in February, 44 percent to 42 percent, and in June, 44 percent to 41 percent, and Reid finishing just ahead of Angle in May, 42 percent to 39 percent.

The phone survey, taken Monday through Wednesday of 625 likely voters in Nevada, is the first in which Reid has finished ahead of Angle outside the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Reid has had a pretty good month in defining Angle as extreme, and Angle hasn’t helped her own cause much during that period. She has had to back away from statements about unemployment and to explain statements on Social Security. When you’re explaining, you’re playing defense, and Reid put her in that position by flooding the airwaves.

However, a couple of bright spots can be found. First, Angle had a good fundraising quarter and finally has cash in the bank. Most importantly, even though she bled voters in almost every category, they didn’t go to Reid. He’s still only getting 44% of the vote, far below the 50% threshold an incumbent needs to be safe in this climate. For the moment, voters don’t have to pull the lever for Angle, and she has three months to define herself rather than allow Reid to do it for her. If 56% of the voters don’t want Reid, that shouldn’t be a difficult sell for Angle, but she has to step up her game now and avoid any further mistakes.

And what might that mean? She’s against big government or against high taxes? Well, I guess that could be considered fringe.

whbates on July 16, 2010 at 1:22 PM

No.. it means that she comes off as a fringe character who thinks that the schools are going to turn her kids into Communist pod people and the gov’t is intentionally poisoning people through flouride in the water and doing other evilll things. And her campaign has done nothing to turn around these perceptions.

Republicans in Nevada will come out in angry force – Reid’s supporters will have to be pushed and shoved to come out.

Reid has already blown a lot of money trying to scramble back just to get to even in this campaign. Angle is going to deploy her dollars when the money counts the most. And she is definitely raising dough.

You would be wise not to discount her. She rose to the top from essentially zero, just in the Republican primary. When people hear her speak, beyond just out-of-context soundbites, she is natural, commonsensical, tireless and she believes up and down in the United States Constitution and love of country.

Those of you who sell her short have not been paying attention. Selling her short just made her previous opponents into bumbling, stumbling losers.

There is a huge distinction to draw between her and Reid that redounds greatly to her benefit in every sense among fair and decent people. Believe you me, she will draw that distinction sharply in the weeks & months to come and is worthy of all our support.

I’ve enjoyed you comments on here in the past so I’m not trying to be testy. I don’t know that much about Angle but I do know that you can be defined and put in a box by your enemies. I am just trying to find the evidence of her extremism.

By extreme fringe of the Republican wing, what do you mean? Timothy McVey? As far as I know, he wasn’t a Republican. I had a top-secret crypto clearance when I was in the military so I know what crypto means but what did you mean by “crypto-birther?”

If we don’t beat Reid, this will piss me off more than anything else ever this yr. It’s even pissing me off thinking about it.

All these people on here who whine about RINOs, this is what you morons get. I don’t care who beats Reid, I don’t care if an alien beats him. I just want us to field candidates who can freaking win. This whole thing is pissing me off.

Angle is the product of the ghetto conservative wing of the party. Having to spend resources on defending bottom of the barrel appeals to the voters on leadership is a waste of time. Screw all you RINO witch hunters and little fake Republicans who think politics is a video game. Harry Reid winning would suck.

The GOP should have run Daniel Negreanu. They guy has name recognition in Nevada.

fogw on July 16, 2010 at 10:37 AM

Other than the fact that he’s a douchebag uber-leftist, sounds like a great idea.

Anyway, this would be a disgrace if Harry Reid survives because of our own ineptitude. This is the perfect example of where electability should trump everything else, to ensure the defeat of scum like Reid. Nominating someone like Angle over a sure-thing like Tarkanian, and this is what you get.

The GOP should have run Daniel Negreanu. They guy has name recognition in Nevada.

fogw on July 16, 2010 at 10:37 AM

I’m born and raised in Nevada and never heard of Daniel Negreanu.

I did not vote for Sharron Angle because I was afraid of exactly what we are seeing now in the polls; I thought Lowden or Tarkanian would do better. But I will vote for Angle in November; I still think she can win because I don’t know anyone who wants to vote for Harry. Maybe the 44% approval is uber left wing Democrats.

No. Lowden would have won comfortably had the Club for Growth and the Tea Party Express people not come into the state and messed things up.

year_of_the_dingo on July 16, 2010 at 12:39 PM

Lowden not only ran an awful campaign, she made gaffes non-stop. Her asinine “Trade chickens for healthcare” scheme was just one example. Tarkaninan was so sleepy that he made Fred Thompson look hyper.

What’s scary is that the GOP leadership doesn’t really share the values of the Tea Party movement…Hmmmm.

I maintain that the Republicans complain about Democrats overspending when they aren’t in power, but when they are in really don’t do much about it…because they’re quite happy with that control over $ as well.

If Republicans come in they’ll reduce spending by maybe 10% but shrug their shoulders about the rest and simply say, “Hey, we’re stuck with it…nothing we can do about it. Sorry.” That seems to be the pattern.

Screw all you RINO witch hunters and little fake Republicans who think politics is a video game. Harry Reid winning would suck.

conservador on July 16, 2010 at 2:18 PM

All these people on here who whine about RINOs, this is what you morons get. I don’t care who beats Reid, I don’t care if an alien beats him. I just want us to field candidates who can freaking win. This whole thing is pissing me off.

Chudi on July 16, 2010 at 2:16 PM

And a RINO would be appreciably different from Harry Reid HOW? After all, we just had 3 winning squish Republicans help make Teh One’s financial reform a reality. Yeah, we really need, oh, 30 more like ’em!

I was worried this might happen. Hopefully, Angle can pull this out. The other Republicans did better against Reid for a reason, they were not seen as Birchers or anything out of the mainstream. It is one thing to support small government, it is another to be a kook..I hope she can change that perception because Reid is an odious little toad who really needs to be sent packing. He is like a poster child of everything that is reprehensible about the modern day political class.

Slightly OT: How can this thread be a “Top Pick” on HotAir? Barely generating 1 comment per hour.

Norwegian on July 16, 2010 at 4:56 PM

I don’t think the problem is restricted to this thread, I think Hot Air is running out of steam.

I don’t find it nearly as intriguing as I did even 6 months ago. Don’t know if it’s our inability to maintain our anger over the Dimwitcrat dimantling of our country, or maybe the disappointment of watching duh 1 shove o’bummerCare down our collective throats.

Or perhaps some of us are getting tired of posting something thoughtful here and getting no response.

Or maybe it’s because the lovely Michelle Malkin no longer has her fingerprints on this site.

Or maybe, like the Jo Dee Messina song says:

My Give a Damn’s Busted!

It’s obvious there’s a lot that we can’t control, at least right now. November 2, 2010 is the Big Kahuna for most posters to this site. I only hope we’re ready when it comes!!

I read somewhere that Reid has raised $19 million and already spent $10 million. Also, 44% is embarrasing for the Democrat senate leader; especially against a new candidate who came from out of the blue.

And a RINO would be appreciably different from Harry Reid HOW? After all, we just had 3 winning squish Republicans help make Teh One’s financial reform a reality. Yeah, we really need, oh, 30 more like ‘em!

ddrintn on July 16, 2010 at 5:19 PM

The other Republicans in the race were not Rinos…and by the way if there were more Republicans in the Senate, then the leader might actually be someone like DeMint..and if that were the case that Financial Reform bill would not have even come up for a vote. That is something people need to think about, the majority controls the agenda.

Illinidiva on July 16, 2010 at 11:08 AM
Apologetic California on July 16, 2010 at 4:43 PM

You two covered this subject.

The Dems:

Sadly, The One practically asked for a condemnation order on Las Vegas. He has no use for such frivolity and part of it is His assessment of the ripoffs and false dreams of riches which have bedeviled the poor and minorities of this nation for generations. He skips the fun of it, however. Like having a lottery ticket makes some of us feel like we are worth $250 million if only for a few hours.

Moreover, if anyone polled the WH, the State of Nevada (outside of Las Vegas) is considered a toxic, forbidding enviroment with superstitous, ignorant and violent inhabitants which should spend their time tending solar panels and greeting Harry Reid’s super train.

The Republicans

Yes, they can’t keep their fat mouths shut. Prince Harry’s white flag on Iraq, the deficits and all the rest are scenery now and fading fast. They have to talk about the lazy unemployed, ending Social Security, chickens for medical fees and all the rest.

And then the voters have to forgo all the pork which used to come home to them.

Dick Morris sees eleven seats in the Senate for the Republicans. It looks like seven to me right now. Seven. And Reid may pull this out while Ms. Angle is wheeled to the Senator Goldwater wingnut parthenon.

The other Republicans in the race were not Rinos…and by the way if there were more Republicans in the Senate, then the leader might actually be someone like DeMint..and if that were the case that Financial Reform bill would not have even come up for a vote. That is something people need to think about, the majority controls the agenda.

Terrye on July 16, 2010 at 5:35 PM

Uh-uh. Pack the Senate with “acceptable” “conservatives”, and the majority leader is Susan Collins.

Obama won Nevada by 12 points and people find it hard to believe that an unappealing candidate with a history of losing, who equates birthing the child of your rapist with turning lemons into lemonade might lose.

I usually stay out of the RINO debates here on Hot Air, but I think your point is extremely important. If the Republicans win majorities in either or both Chambers of Congress, the majority elects their Speaker, controls legislation, heads committees and has subpoena power. Although I’d prefer a Concervative win every Senate and House seat, I’ll happily take a few RINOs if it means Republican control of that chamber.

Right now our former Maryland Givernor, Bob Erhlich, is tied in a race to unseat Democrat Gov O’Malley. I’ve lived in Maryland for many years, and I believe only a moderate like Ehrlich has a prayer of winning the Governorship. In the Congressional District where I live, we elect a true Conservative to Congress every year. In most of the gerrymandered districts in the middle of this state, the citizens would be mush better served by RINO Republicans than their current Democrat officeholders, and I seriously doubt Conservative Republioans would fare well.

Attention Republicans, DONOT put an idiot like McCain up for election. You should know better but you don’t. You think like the old times that does not work anymore. There is too much video out there that proves you don’t know squat. Your ego will not allow common sense and it’s killing the Party. You have one chance and one chance only to rectify your past mistakes and you better pay attention to the ones that have some smarts or we all will be in a dire mess that cannot be blamed on anyone but the GOP.

Why can’t the Angle supporters just admit they farked up? They acted like they were living in a safe Republican state like South Carolina, instead of an Obama blue state, so they went for broke in voting for a hardliner with little public relations talent. The other Republicans were not Chaffees or Specters.

I refuse to believe this poll!
There’s no way that Reid is up by 7, unless the dead are already voting and according to that hilarious news story, even the dead in NV are telling people not to vote for Reid!

Quit picking on Angle–she’s a good woman and I think she’s going to show Harry the Senate door!

This doesn’t surprise me at all. The media has done a good job of portraying anyone associated with the tea party as extreme and the public is beginning to buy into the narrative. And the people of Nevada may be coming to the realization that the economy is not going to come back for quite some time and want to have the senate majority leader in charge to use his clout to bring more government money to Nevada even though all studies show that the more gov’t. money a state receives, the poorer the state becomes because private investment is pushed out. Just look at West Virginia.

If this poll is accurate and Harry wins, the people of Nevada derserve their fate.

Even if she does show Reid the door, now Republicans have to drag her over the finish line instead of a comfy 10 point win. Instead of those resources going to Connecticut or California, they have to go to Nevada.

ven if she does show Reid the door, now Republicans have to drag her over the finish line instead of a comfy 10 point win. Instead of those resources going to Connecticut or California, they have to go to Nevada.

Speedwagon82 on July 16, 2010 at 9:34 PM

Bull!
I’m supporting GOP candidates all over the country and so are a lot of other people.
Angle will not have to be “dragged over the finish line!”
Angle is a strong conservative candidate and Harry Reid is a disaster.
NV voters need real hope and real change and they know that Reid can’t help them.

Every conservative, Republican, and Independent should stop whining about Lowden, Tark, etc. and donate to Angle’s campaign or Dick Morris’s in her behalf, etc. If not, you are a Reid supporter.

Angle is so “extreme” that she uses the U.S. constitution as her guidebook. In 2003 she mortgaged her home for $50,000 to fight her own state government, which violated the NV state constitution. Angle v Guinn at SCOTUS.

Check here to see how Harry Reid is single-handedly responsible for the loss of 300,000 American jobs.

Did George Washington give up before winning the Great Cause because his army was totally unprofessional?

Nevada voters are given the choice to have more illegal legislation shoved down tax payers’ throats from Congress, or to fight to stop Washington’s Marxist binge.

Polls will inevitably reflect propaganda messaging paid for by the highest bidder.

But anyone with a gripe about THE BODY OF OBAMA’S NEW LAWS isn’t going to vote for Reid just because he told them what a horrible candidate his opponent was, or because she isn’t EVERYTHING they wished for.

Angle is the antithesis of Reid. It will take every scrappy conservative fighter to counter what Obama has achieved.

fred, Reid trolls? A candidate like Tark would have beat Reid hands down. Reid never would have gotten within 18 point of him. I don’t think any of these people are Reid trolls, in fact just the opposite. Hopefully this poll is an outlier and in the near future we will see Angle ahead, but there is no point in attacking the people who are angry that Reid is beating Angle when he should be getting his ass handed to him. Maybe people just feel like they are losing an easy win.

Uh-uh. Pack the Senate with “acceptable” “conservatives”, and the majority leader is Susan Collins.

ddrintn on July 16, 2010 at 6:41 PM

That is not true. She was not majority leader before and she won’t be now. The point is that if Republicans do not gain the majority they can not hope to sit the agenda. It is pointless to run people who can not win and then whine when they don’t. The voters will be the final deciders in this and I hope they decide they have had enough of Reid.

I heard DeMint say that he would rather have 30 true conservatives in the Senate than a majority who are not..true or something like that.

I am sure Barack Obama would rather see 30 true conservatives rather than a majority of Republicans too. It is one thing to stand on principle, it is another to just be dumb. And Tark was not some closet liberal anyway.

Reid will keep chipping away at her lead and I expect they’ll be at least even by Nov. Reid will most likely pull this out, if only because there are so many idiots voting in Nevada. I mean, they’ve been voting for this clown for decades, why should they do any different this year?

Angle does not have a Rand Paul problem. She has a money problem. Reid has a bottomless pit of money backing him. That said, Angle need not defend her views, she needs to make Reid defend his record. If Angle runs on the Reid record, she will win. Reid is spending a lot of money to make her sound like a kook, she can punch back twice as hard with half the money. At issue is Reid’s record.

Stimulus, bailouts, health care reform, deficits, jobs, housing prices in a free fall. All of these are directly attributable to Reid’s leadership.

fred, Reid trolls? A candidate like Tark would have beat Reid hands down. Reid never would have gotten within 18 point of him. I don’t think any of these people are Reid trolls, in fact just the opposite. Hopefully this poll is an outlier and in the near future we will see Angle ahead, but there is no point in attacking the people who are angry that Reid is beating Angle when he should be getting his ass handed to him. Maybe people just feel like they are losing an easy win.

Terrye on July 17, 2010 at 7:32 AM

Tark isn’t whining. I saw him hug Angle at 8 PM election eve and tell her would do everything he could to help her. He gave a great introduction to her at the state GOP convention. He’s not whining.

The point is, if the Republicans get that majority based on candidates that the David Frums of the world find acceptable, then that agenda won’t be all that different from the Democrats’.

ddrintn on July 17, 2010 at 12:15 PM

The point is that only 3 Republicans even voted for the Regulation bill and none of them voted for the health care bill and even Brown said he would not vote for cap and trade. The point is that having a majority of Republicans means that there is a far greater chance of having a more conservative Senate, because there are a lot more conservatives in the Republican party…the fact that not everyone one of them is DeMint is only to be expected, not all Americans are that conservative and not all regions are that conservative either…but you can control the agenda with more Republicans, but to do that you have to win elections.

Rasmussens has a poll out that puts Angle up by 3 over Reid. I hope it is a lot more accurate than the Mason Dixon poll.

and you know something ddrintn? This is why Democrats have had the majority so much more often and why they control the government now…they are willing to do what they have to win…and if you want to defeat them then you will have to do the same thing, if you ask yourself what is the point..then you are only helping Pelosi and Reid.

The point is that only 3 Republicans even voted for the Regulation bill and none of them voted for the health care bill and even Brown said he would not vote for cap and trade.

Terrye on July 17, 2010 at 5:01 PM

1. This financial reform bill may have even been more of a wrecking ball than the health care bill. 2. Three Republicans were enough to put it over the top. 3. Brown wouldn’t vote for cap-and-trade? We’ll see.

and you know something ddrintn? This is why Democrats have had the majority so much more often and why they control the government now…they are willing to do what they have to win…and if you want to defeat them then you will have to do the same thing, if you ask yourself what is the point..then you are only helping Pelosi and Reid.

Terrye on July 17, 2010 at 5:08 PM

How often have the so-called Blue Dogs been an impediment to Queen Nancy’s agenda? Not very often, really. The Democrats usually vote for their agenda. You’ll find far fewer “backstabbers” in their ranks when it gets down to the nitty-gritty.

This blog post inspired me to donate to Sharron Angle
Please please please help, even every small donation can help. Let’s please get Dingy Harry “you can literally smell the stench of the tourists” Reid the heck out of our Senate!!!!