The next time you
are tempted to draft a rookie wide receiver, take a look at the above
table. Most likely you are two or three years from seeing
your player
in the Top 20 and probably about five years or more from seeing him as
a Top 10 player. Being a productive receiver in the NFL takes
time to
develop. Obviously, the prime area of production for a receiver - and
these are the best ones in the league - come between the
fourth and seventh
season. That accounts for 13 of the best 20 players and nine of the top
ten.

More interesting is that while six players managed great
seasons in their second or third year, only three continued
to produce well last year after their seventh season -
Jerry Rice, Isaac Bruce and Jimmy Smith. Throwing out Jerry
Rice as one of the most extraordinary players to ever strap
on a helmet, only Smith and Bruce did well and both are
clearly declining.

There is an odd consistency to the top 10 for receivers
in terms of years of experience, particularly since reason
says the top level should be almost pure individual talent,
not some single variable. However, even in 2001 the top
ten had every receiver there between four and sevens years
of experience with the exceptions of David Boston (3) and
Torry Holt (3) and the aging Jimmy Smith (9). The 10th
through the 20th best receivers in 2001 followed a similar
pattern like 2002. They were either seven players that
had at least 8 years of experience or three players with
two or three seasons (Kevin Johnson, Marty Booker and Darrell
Jackson).

If you want a reciever in his prime, look first at the
ones that are in their fourth through seventh years of
playing. It is a rule that gets broken, but not enough
to keep it from being a meaningful rule. The next ten players
in a season will normally be either young guys just breaking
out or old guys just winding down their careers with suprisingly
few in the middle tier.

While runners are better when they are under six feet
tall typically, only two players - Peerless Price and Lavernues
Coles - were under that mark last season and yet managed
top 20 numbers for 2002. Interesting too that both just
changed teams and are veterans of only four or three years
respectively.

College produces a ton of great receivers below the six
foot mark, they just are unable to sustain that level of
play in the NFL.

While big possession receivers were present with Terrell
Owens and Plaxico Burress, the majority of top receivers
were between 200 and 210 pounds. Obviously individual talent
plays a significant role in a receiver's success - more
so than mere physical characteristics - but the commonality
of the 200-210 is useful for searching for up and coming
receivers that best fit "the mold" of a prototypical
great receiver.

There are so many qualities that are important to a receiver
that physical characteristics are only one consideration
and by no means the most important one. But the best and
easiest benefit you can gain for your fantasy team is to
find the breakout receivers for the season and those players
- shown above - fall into a fairly regimented group in
height and weight and experience.

The caliber of quarterback, offensive system and all the
elements that make up a team feed into the success that
a receiver can have. Consider that by the time a reciever
has caught the ball, ten other players have all done their
job well enough to let it happen. That all takes time,
talent and teamwork.