Hoping it turns north and east sooner, speeds up and remains "safely out to sea" .

BVI looks pretty beat up this AM.

The Phorum Wall keeps us safe from illegal characters and words
The doorstep to the temple of wisdom is the knowledge of one's own ignorance. -Benjamin Franklin
BOYCOTT YOPLAIT [www.noyoplait.com]
[soundcloud.com]

QuoteCarnos Jax
Just a little more left so it goes out into the gulf....

Kind of hard to predict.. there is a tropical depression grinding on south Mexico right now that may be sucking Irma south southwest, and TS Jose is pulling Irma east northeast. Water in the gulf is hot hot hot, so there is lots of energy there. If it bumps south and builds energy in the Gulf ? We are looking at a Camillie level event.

BIL lives in New Smyrna Beach, FL, left 2 days ago on his motorcycle to ride the Claw of the Dragon in the mountains of Virginia until Monday. Then headed more north to Indiana for a class reunion. Says there's nothing more he can do other than just get out of Irma's way should she hit his area.

If it goes off the Atlantic coast, the strong side of the storm will be away from land (unless your in the Bahamas). Right now that is the best that Florida can hope for (other than a surprise dissipation)

“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.”
-- François de La Rochefoucauld

LOL...for a while there, Irma's forecast tracks seemed to be moving further west, so I was hoping for it to clear it all together (and I didn't think it'd shift back east). Of course that could have meant ramifications for us up here in Arkansas.

Quotecbelt3

QuoteCarnos Jax
Just a little more left so it goes out into the gulf....

Kind of hard to predict.. there is a tropical depression grinding on south Mexico right now that may be sucking Irma south southwest, and TS Jose is pulling Irma east northeast. Water in the gulf is hot hot hot, so there is lots of energy there. If it bumps south and builds energy in the Gulf ? We are looking at a Camillie level event.

Yeah, there is some serious oceanic energy in the gulf. Probably not a good thing wherever Irma goes.

Still lots of uncertainty exactly where it will turn north...from the Forecast Discussion in the 11:00 Advisory Package released from the National Hurricane Center (emphasis mine):

Irma is moving west-northwestward or 285/14 kt. A strong high
pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic westward is
expected to keep Irma moving west-northwestward during the next 2
to 3 days. The track guidance is in good agreement during this
period and the NHC track is along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope in best agreement with the ECMWF and HFIP corrected
consensus model. After that time, a shortwave trough moving
southward over the east-central United States is expected to erode
the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Irma is forecast to
turn northwestward and northward, but there is still a fair amount
of uncertainty regarding the exact timing and location of
recurvature. The NHC forecast has been shifted eastward to be in
better agreement with the latest model guidance, however it should
be noted that there are numerous GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members
that take Irma over and/or west of Florida. The updated NHC track
is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF ensemble mean. Users are
reminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are
about 175 and 225 statue miles, respectively.

My worry is that Irma has been showing a high degree of symmetry (as of yesterday), and if she maintains this during U.S. landfall, then it may not matter too much which side of the eye you're on in terms of wind speeds.

If I was in Fla now ( and I wasn't tied to a job that countermanded leaving ) I'[d already have spare gas tanks filled up ( tight supplies too often mean shortages ) and even if I didn't take them all with me I'd be gone just before the highways start getting clogged.

It's one thing to be in a fairly rugged building and place hunkered down because you need to stay ( I doubt too many fire and rescue people/ essential personnel bug out or very far ) but getting stuck on a highway in a hurricane is NOT planning.

The Phorum Wall keeps us safe from illegal characters and words
The doorstep to the temple of wisdom is the knowledge of one's own ignorance. -Benjamin Franklin
BOYCOTT YOPLAIT [www.noyoplait.com]
[soundcloud.com]

Cruise lines are still evaluating. Carnival has cancelled the Bahama trips, and stops in Key West. Royal Carribean has canceled the Bahamas, and is keeping several ships at sea. Norwegian has some cancellations, some staying at sea and shortening other trips (coming back tomorrow)

“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.”
-- François de La Rochefoucauld

One of my brothers let my stepmother know he was leaving Key West with some friends tomorrow. Hopefully there is no trouble on the road out. Some other relatives live elsewhere in FL, they are getting ready to leave or batten down depending on their location.