Prognosis: Nurses wanted

Increased demand for health services and professionals’ retirements both driving the need for additional RNs

After several years in the doldrums, demand for registered nurses is on the cusp of a resurgence.

California labor officials estimate that nearly 10,000 new slots for registered nurses will open each year between now and 2020, half from increased demand for health services and half from retirement of aging nurses.

That contrasts with recent years, when many newly minted nurses struggled to find their first job in the field, sometimes searching for months or having to move out of San Diego County or the state to secure employment.

Nationwide, the federal government projects an increase of at least 25 percent in the number of registered nurses during the next decade or so.

Analysts cite factors such as technological advancements — including nurses knowledgeable in paperless systems, computer charting and new diagnostic techniques — increased emphasis on preventive care and baby boomers seeking more medical support as they live longer and more active lives.

The heydays of the early 2000s, when a major nursing shortage resulted in higher wages, signing bonuses and lucrative deals for nurses willing to travel for short- to moderate-term assignments isn’t quite back, but there’s little doubt that nurses are expected to be in high demand again.

Obamacare, more formally known as the Affordable Care Act, is expected to add as many as 30 million Americans to the health care system, including about 3 million in California.

“We’re starting to see a robust market out there,” said Marcia Faller, chief clinical officer for AMN Healthcare in San Diego, a nurse, physician and therapist staffing service. “And we’re already starting to see the impact of the Affordable Care Act.”

Sharp HealthCare recruiting director Michael Peterson said what has been a relatively stable market for nurses is turning a corner.

“The long-term potential is good, not just from the expansions expected through health care reform but also because … the average age of nurses is nearing the horizon for retirement.”

Sharp, which employs about 3,500 nurses at its facilities around San Diego County, has drawn up a variety of scenarios accounting for increased retirements, the aging population and the expansion of health services.

“The initial impact will be on primary care, but we’re uncertain about the impact on acute care,” Peterson said.

Landing work

A decade ago, new nurses “could walk out of school and have a job just like that,” said Debbie Yaddow, dean of the nursing program at Grossmont College.

At the time, state officials and hospital administrators were citing a shortage of nurses that ran as high as 30,000 in California. That sent salaries soaring, spurred employers to offer numerous recruitment incentives and led to a $90 million infusion of funding to expand nursing programs under then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s California Nurse Education Initiative.

But when the Great Recession took hold in 2008, the market dried up. Nurses who were planning to retire put that off as they saw the value of their 401(k) plans shrink, along with the market value of their homes. Many also became their household’s sole wage earner.