For some weeks now, our almost new Chief of Staff, Benny Gantz, has been announcing
at every possible opportunity that a new war against the Gaza Strip is inevitable.
Several commanders of the troops around the Strip have been repeating this dire
forecast, as have their camp-followers, a.k.a. military commentators.

One of these comforted us. True, Hamas can now hit Tel Aviv with their rockets,
but that will not be so terrible, because it will be a short war. Just three
or four days. As one of the generals said, it will be much more “hard and
painful” (for the Arabs) than Cast Lead I, so it will not last for three
weeks, as that did. We shall all stay in our shelters – those of us who
have shelters, anyway – for just a few days.

Why is the war inevitable? Because of the terrorism, stupid. Hamas is a terrorist
organization, isn’t it?

But along comes the supreme Hamas leader, Khaled Mash’al, and declares
that Hamas has given up all violent action. From now on it will concentrate
on nonviolent mass demonstrations, in the spirit of the Arab Spring.

When Hamas forswears terrorism, there is no pretext for an attack on Gaza.

But is a pretext needed? Our army will not let itself be thwarted by the likes
of Mash’al. When the army wants a war, it will have a war. This was proved
in 1982, when Ariel Sharon attacked Lebanon, despite the fact that the Lebanese
border had been absolutely quiet for 11 months. (After the war, the myth was
born that it was preceded by daily shooting. Today, almost every Israeli can
“remember” the shooting – an astonishing example of the power
of suggestion.

Why does the Chief of Staff want to attack?

A cynic might say that every new Chief of Staff needs a war to call his own.
But we are not cynics, are we?

Every few days, a solitary rocket is launched from the Gaza Strip into Israel.
It rarely hits anything but an empty field. For months, now, no one has been
hurt.

The usual sequence is like this: our air force carries out a “targeted
liquidation” of Palestinian militants in the strip. The army claims invariably
that these specific “terrorists” had intended to attack Israelis.
How did the army know of their intentions? Well, our army is a master thought
reader.

After the persons have been killed, their organization considers it its duty
to avenge their blood by launching a rocket or a mortar shell, or even two or
three. This “cannot be tolerated” by the army, and so it goes on.

After every such episode, the talk about a war starts again. As American politicians
put it in their speeches at AIPAC conferences: “No country can tolerate
its citizens being exposed to rockets!”

But of course, the reasons for Cast Lead II are more serious. Hamas is being
accepted by the international community. Their Prime Minister, Isma’il
Haniyeh, is now traveling around the Arab and Muslim world, after being shut
in Gaza – a kind of Strip-arrest – for four years. Now he can cross
into Egypt because the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas’ parent organization,
has become a major player there.

Even worse, Hamas is about to join the PLO and take part in the Palestinian
government. High time to do something about it. Attack Gaza, for example. Compel
Hamas to become extremist again.

Not content with stealing our war, Mash’al is carrying out a series of
more sinister actions.

By joining the PLO, he is committing Hamas to the Oslo agreements and all the
other official deals between Israel and the PLO. He has announced that Hamas
accepts a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders. He has let it be known
that Hamas would not contest the Palestinian presidency this year, so that the
Fatah candidate – whoever that may be – would be elected practically
unopposed and be able to negotiate with Israel.

All this would put the present Israeli government in a difficult position.
Mash’al has some experience in causing trouble for Israel. In 1977, the
(first) Netanyahu government decided to get rid of him in Amman. A team of Mossad
agents was sent to assassinate him in the street by spraying his ear with an
untraceable poison. But instead of doing the decent thing and dying quietly
from a mysterious cause, like Yasser Arafat, he let his bodyguard chase the
attackers and catch them.

King Hussein, Israel’s longstanding friend and ally, was hopping mad.
He presented Netanyahu with a choice: either the agents would be tried in Jordan
and possibly hanged, or the Mossad would immediately send the secret antidote
to save Mash’al. Netanyahu capitulated, and here we have Mash’al,
very much alive and kicking.

Another curious outcome of this misadventure: the king demanded that the Hamas
founder and leader, the paralyzed Sheik Ahmad Yassin, be released from Israeli
prison. Netanyahu obliged, Yassin was released and assassinated by Israel seven
years later. When his successor, Abd al-Aziz Rantissi, was assassinated soon
after, the path was cleared for Mash’al to become the Hamas chief.

And instead of showing his gratitude, he now confronts us with a dire challenge:
nonviolent action, indirect peace overtures, the two-state solution.

A question: why does our Chief of Staff long for a little war in Gaza, when
he could have all the war he desires in Iran? Not just a little operation, but
a big war, a very very big war.

Well, he knows that he cannot have it.

Some time ago I did something no experienced commentator ever does. I promised
that there would be no Israeli military attack on Iran. (Nor, for that matter,
an American one.)

An experienced journalist or politician never makes such a prediction without
leaving a loophole for himself. He puts in an inconspicuous “unless”.
If his forecast goes awry, he points to that loophole.

I do have some experience – some 60 or so years of it – but I did
not leave any loophole. I said No War, and now General Gantz says the same in
so many words. No Tehran, just poor little Gaza.

Why? Because of that one word: Hormuz.

Not the ancient Persian god Hormuzd, but the narrow strait that is the entrance
and exit of the Persian Gulf, through which 20% of the world’s oil (and
35% of the sea-borne oil) flows. My contention was that no sane (or even mildly
insane) leader would risk the closing of the strait, because the economic consequences
would be catastrophic, even apocalyptic.

It seems that the leaders of Iran were not sure that all the world’s leaders
read this column, so, just in case, they spelled it out themselves. This week
they conducted conspicuous military maneuvers around the Strait of Hormuz, accompanied
by the unequivocal threat to close it.

The US responded with vainglorious counter-threats. The invincible US Navy
was ready to open the strait by force, if needed.

How, pray? The mightiest multi-billion-dollar aircraft carrier can be easily
sunk by a battery of cheap land-to-sea missiles, as well as by small missile-boats.
Let’s assume Iran starts to act out its threats. The whole might of the
US air force and navy is brought to bear. Iranian ships will be sunk, missile
and army installations bombed. Still the Iranian missiles will come in, making
passage through the strait impossible.

What next? There will be no alternative to “boots on the ground”.
The US army will have to land on the shore and occupy all the territory from
which missiles can be effectively launched. That would be a major operation.
Fierce Iranian resistance must be expected, judging from the experience of the
eight-year Iraqi-Iranian war. The oil wells in neighboring Saudi Arabia and
the other Gulf states will also be hit.

Such a war would go far beyond the dimensions of the American invasions of
Iraq or Afghanistan, perhaps even of Vietnam.

Is the bankrupt US up to it? Economically, politically and in terms of morale?
The closing of the strait is the ultimate weapon. I don’t believe that
the Iranians will use it against the imposition of sanctions, severe as they
may be, as they have threatened. Only a military attack would warrant such a
response.

If Israel attacks alone – “the most stupid idea I ever heard of,”
as our former Mossad chief put it – that will make no difference. Iran
will consider it an American action, and close the strait. That’s why the
Obama administration put its foot down, and hand-delivered to Netanyahu and
Ehud Barak an unequivocal order to abstain from any military action.

That’s where we are now. No war in Iran. Just the prospect of a war in
Gaza. And along comes this evil Mash’al and tries to spoil the chances
of that, too.

Absolutely right- no one who looks at a map (and knows how small a shore-to-ship missile is) could possibly doubt that the Iranians can do what they say and close that strait.

But on the other hand- who was it who remarked that Israel was in a lot of trouble when they appointed an Air Force officer as chief of staff in 2005? Because air forces always promise that they can win wars- that they can take out land targets (see: strategic bombing, 1939-1945; the Ho Chi Minh Trail, 1972, Saddam's Scud missiles, 1991) I think it might have been Mr. Avnery himself. And he was right: Dan Halutz got Israel into the Lebanon mess in 2006 with his calm assurance that the Air Force could do what it couldn't do.

Isn't it pretty much certain that the US Air Force is claiming that they can find and hit every single boat, truck, and cave that the Iranians might have equipped with missiles? And that the politicians ALWAYS believe the air force?

It's a very good thing this is posted on antiwar and not on Yahoo! News – every day I deal with the brainless masses who would immediately respond with the invariable "nuke Iran NOW" or "that Hamas bunch you can't trust coz you know them muzzies always lie because their satan god allah told them to in the koran" or endless variations of the same. Sometimes I think we need a few more bags of chlorine in the gene pool after reading some of the comments there.

As for this article, I think it's rather humorous that the IDF can't have their own 'splendid little war' to show how tough they are against Gaza and Palestine. The issue of Hamas maintaining their vow of peaceful resistance remains to be seen, but I can't help but have hope for light at the end of the tunnel for a united- and sovereign- Palestine.

Straits of Hormuz? Fuggeddaboudit- by the time first Israeli or American missile or bomb is identified you can take it to the bank we'll have a brand new Ironbottom Sound in the Persian Gulf, and most of it will probably be American steel providing the new sunken reef material. Iran is no fool when it comes to defending itself and Iranians are a lot more likely to rally 'round the flag than we'd like to think. Our ships are big targets and those anti-ship missiles fly mighty fast and low.

If anyone thinks that the IDF is "upset" by a Hamas move toward "non-violence," they have never been in a war. If anyone thinks Hamas is actually, really going to go "non-violent," they do not understand the reality of being and surviving as a Palestinian politician.

The IDF and the Mossad are One: their Business is The Survival of Israel. They have no choice; if they fail, they don't just get fired… they and all that they love are destroyed. How many of you have ever lived under those circumstances?

If anybody really thinks that the IDF and Mossad are not on the same sheet of music, they are ignorant of the Reality of Being Israel.

Politicians do not enable Israel to survive: the IDF and Mossad do. Politicians (in Israel or America) are sh**.

ps: If Hamas, or Hezbollah, or all the other bad guys did not exist, it would, for Israel, be necessary to create them. Just like, for the US, after the Soviet Empire gagged to death, it was necessary toi create a new enemy: Islamo-Fascist bin Laden/al Qaeda "terrorism."

All our Mideast wars have been against our interests, yet successfully advocated by Israel and its AIPAC minions. Again against our interests, Israel has involved us in increasingly overt operations against Iran. Spies and American military drones in Iranian airspace are the most recent revelations. Since before 9/11, American soldiers have been dying for the Jewish state's “right to defend itself.” We are at war. Those that did this to us are the lobbyists, organizers, columnists, financiers and other traitorous Israel Firsters. Justice and the future of America demand that they be prosecuted and jailed.

To think that two state organizations can be "One" is to ignore the workings of a modern state. Reality is much more complex. Anyway, I definitely think Mr. Avnery is more knowledgeable of the workings of his country than some commentator.

You hop around site to site jg. Defending Israel is your retirement pastime? Well, I should say defending your view of Israels God given right to be above all criticism, especially from its own citizens, eh? I trust you retired to your palatial apartment in downtown Tel Aviv upon retirement. Why were the US Tax payers paying you to train IDF in Israel???? Hmm. But we can't afford healthcare for OUR citizens like Israel does…..hmmm.

From your comment — as you seem to have been stalking me “from site to site” — you obviously embody that oft-demonstrated propensity among your ilk to ignore the facts and evidence, and jump to whatever conclusion suits your present mood or in-bred belief system.

It’s hard to believe that somebody could be so completely wrong about EVERYTHING posted in a single comment. But that happens. Let me see if i can confuse you with some Facts and befuddle you with some Evidence, my dear. i know that that is easy to do with folks like you…… almost tooo easy. …tbc…

2 (of 5). So, you see “defending Israel” as my “retirement pastime,” do you? Before jumping to that moronic conclusion, why don’t you actually read a variety of my comments (all 324 of them). You can find them by clicking on the “jgmoebus” by any of my posts.

Or, better yet, do an antiWar.com Search for any of the following:

Confront, Combat, Defeat, and Destroy The Fourth Reich
Israel as a tactical and strategic outpost following orders from DC
The Lie, Hoax, Sham and Scam of the so-called “War” Against so-called “Terrorism”
The Lie, Hoax, Sham, and Scam of the so-called “Terror Event” of September 11, 2001
The Carter-Bush-Clinton-Cheney-Obama Regime …..

3 (of 5). And, where have i said that “Israel is above criticism,” except in your addled imagination? Why should an Israeli citizen’s criticism of Israel be immune to evaluation and assessment? Especially if it is wrong? Or is it that ANYBODY who criticizes Israel about anything and everything is automatically right? Even if (or Especially if) it is based upon time-worn and long-exposed Protocolonic Zionistic Elder Conspiracy Theories, or similar such nonsense?

Israel is a tool. It has been since its creation was initiated by the Balfour Declaration following World War I to serve as a tactical and strategic outpost for Anglo-American oil interests in the Middle East. It has been a particularly effective tool ever since its birth, which was guaranteed by The Holocaust engineered and executed by its creators (and i’m not talking about ben Gurion, Begin, or Shamir). Israel does as it is instructed to do by its Handlers, Masters, and Pimps in DC. When it stops doing what it is instructed to do, it will be treated exactly like all other tactical and strategic tools that have outlived their utility. Do the names Manuel Noriega, Saddam Hussein, Osama bin Laden, etcetcetc etal, ring a bell? …tbc…

4 (of 5). So you “trust” that i retired to my “palatial apartment in downtown Tel Aviv,” do you? Well, dearie, i do hate to disappoint you so, but you trust wrong. i live on a dinky little sailboat that is presently on San Francisco Bay and is soon to be in Southeast Alaska.

Training the IDF in Israel? My, my, my….we ARE naïve, aren’t we? Or is it simply ignorant of the realities of that big, nasty world out there? Training the IDF? Hardly. i can assure you, dearest, that the US Army has little, if anything at all, to teach the IDF. …tbc…

5. (of 5) And, don’t blame me if “OUR citizens can’t afford health care.” i was working in Israel back when Hillary and Bill had a Democratic Congress and an apparent mandate from the American people, and these two wunderkinds completely blew (probably forever) any chance whatsoever for genuine health care reform in this country. Just like Obama blew his opportunity for the same accomplishment. But, Margaret…. you have to understand….. that’s (part of) why they (Clinton and Obama) were/are there: to ensure that something like universal health care in the United States does not and cannot happen. And for their successes, they are amply rewarded.

It is these "Firsters," the Advocates of Neoliberal neoconservatism and Neoconservative neoliberalism who have successfully advocated all our wars in the MiddleEast — starting with our coup in Iran to install the Shah, to our disposal of the same Shah, to our funding and arming of Saddam's proxy Holy Crusade on our behalf against the Great Satan Iran, to Saddam's following orders from DC to invade to Kuwait, to the Cheney Regime's response to 9.11 by bombing and then attacking Afghanistan, to, most recently, our Invasion, "Liberation," Occupation, and Abandonment of Iraq, to the present run-up to a "War" against Iran.

And it has nothing to do with Israel. It has to do with US hegemony in a region of the world with most of the planet's remaining easy-to-get-to oil.

As per their charter, Hamas has openly stated their desire not only to obliterate Israel but also to kill it's Jewish population.

If Hamas was not lobbing rockets at Israeli cities killing innocent Israeli citizens then none of what is described by the author about Operation Cast Lead would have happened. I wonder if the author decries innocent Israeli deaths as a result of Hams rocket attacks in violation of cease fire agreements the group signed off on and if Avnery also criticizes Muslim states who have intentionally confiscated the private property and earnings of their Jewish populations.

By posting this article, we see the ypical Rothbardian libertarian gas chamber mentality of Antiwar.com: achieve freedom by siding with tyrants or people like Islamists and their enablers (like Uri Avnery, Noam Chomsky, Ana Baltzer, and Norman Flinkelstein) who ultimately want you dead.

[…] the West Bank in the fall of 2011 were arrested by Israeli and Palestinian security forces. And, as Uri Avnery suggests “By joining the PLO, he [Mashaal] is committing Hamas to the Oslo agreements and all […]

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Uri Avnery is a longtime Israeli peace activist. Since 1948 he has advocated the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. In 1974, Uri Avnery was the first Israeli to establish contact with the PLO leadership. In 1982 he was the first Israeli ever to meet Yasser Arafat, after crossing the lines in besieged Beirut. He served three terms in the Israeli Knesset and is the founder of Gush Shalom (Peace Bloc). Visit his Web site.