OKwx2k4

Posted 01 September 2018 - 05:10 PM

OKwx2k4

Advanced Member

Members

3544 posts

I've had a lot of time to analyze data and study the pattern this morning. I'm increasingly encouraged with the idea that this coming cold season will feature "The North American Vortex". September is usually a big indicator of how the new pattern sets up, esp across the north. Not surprisingly, practically ALL the models are illustrating a real fast start to winter up north and the early establishment of the Vortex across N Canada. Folks, I'm stoked about what is evolving and to see the various influencing factors lining up all together is phenomenal. There are numerous key patterns starting to show up that lead me to believe this Autumn will be filled with excitement. In any case, I'll dive into what I believe will be some of the key drivers.

Firstly, check out the latest SST run for Sept via the CFSv2...can you ask for anything better??? Big time warm pool tucked right into the NE PAC, cold pocket of waters NW of Hawaii, very warm SST's along the East Coast, and finally, a warmer ENSO 4 & 3.4 regions via ENSO 1.2.

I just saw the Euro temp forecast across the CONUS for the month of Sept and it's really chilly across the central CONUS. @LNKwx, are the Euro weeklies still showing the mid month cold shot???

Illinois_WX

Severe thunderstorm watch issued for here. Husker kickoff is at 7. Not looking good, we may see a delay.

Thank the lord I didn’t come back yesterday lol I was so close to coming to back to see it— people wonder why I’m a weather nerd, I literally just saved myself from an 8 hour drive and a drunken disappointment.

jaster220 and LNK_Weather like this

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50

LNK_Weather

Posted 01 September 2018 - 06:30 PM

LNK_Weather

Apparently my posts are garbage

Members

3608 posts

LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

We had the brunt of the severe winds in my part of Lincoln. Somehow my power only flickered but in most other areas of SE Lincoln the power is completely knocked out. Down to moderate rain and constant thunder now.

Hawkeye

Any reason to think this will change? There is just so much heavy rain on radar. Maybe that stuff around DSM can make it here.

The stuff in central Iowa is trying to lift northeast. The disturbance in southeast Nebraska is also moving northeast. The HRRR has been insisting all day that the Nebraska MCS will shoot northeastward across Iowa and pull the I-80 line quickly north across the area. I'd be nice if some actual storms could move in and train for a bit.

Iowawx

Posted 01 September 2018 - 06:45 PM

Iowawx

Forum Member

Members

452 posts

LocationCedar Rapids, Iowa

The stuff in central Iowa is trying to lift northeast. The disturbance in southeast Nebraska is also moving northeast. The HRRR has been insisting all day that the Nebraska MCS will shoot northeastward across Iowa and pull the I-80 line quickly north across the area. I'd be nice if some actual storms could move in and train for a bit.

I'm not sure I would trust the HRRR now. Today, it had heavy rain north of highway 20, that is obviously not happening now.

Illinois_WX

Posted 01 September 2018 - 06:46 PM

Illinois_WX

Nebraskan Living In Chicago

Members

1118 posts

LocationChicago, IL (Uptown)

We had the brunt of the severe winds in my part of Lincoln. Somehow my power only flickered but in most other areas of SE Lincoln the power is completely knocked out. Down to moderate rain and constant thunder now.

Hawkeye

Posted 01 September 2018 - 07:08 PM

Hawkeye

Daily Contributor

Members

1585 posts

LocationCedar Rapids, IA

The Iowa State game in Ames has also been canceled.

This is so frustrating. Right now it's a carbon copy of last night. Cedar Rapids is one to two counties downstream of nearly stationary, backbuilding storms, so we're stuck right in the heart of the subsidence.

Hawkeye

Posted 01 September 2018 - 08:38 PM

Hawkeye

Daily Contributor

Members

1585 posts

LocationCedar Rapids, IA

Sheesh.... worst-case for CR two straight nights. The storms to the sw are not moving an inch, the subsidence is crushing any rain in the CR area, then as you go northeast away from the subsidence the rain and storms strengthen again.

Iowawx

Posted 01 September 2018 - 08:42 PM

Iowawx

Forum Member

Members

452 posts

LocationCedar Rapids, Iowa

Sheesh.... worst-case for CR two straight nights. The storms to the sw are not moving an inch, the subsidence is crushing any rain in the CR area, then as you go northeast away from the subsidence the rain and storms strengthen again.

Are you ready to say this event will be a bust? There is still lots of rain in Central Iowa that is developing.

jaster220

I saw this image on Twitter from someone who captured the Tornado you were speaking of near the Kalamazoo Speedway...

Guess I was not in touch with this. I left the building (literally) to take my car that's normally in my driveway down to the concrete parking garage when I heard severe wx sirens going off (there's one at the end of my street 2 doors down so you can't miss it, lol) and saw the warning issued for 60 mph winds and likely hail damage to vehicles. But that warning was for Marshall and SE. Then my daughter said a short while later that there was also a Tor Warning and I presumed it was for that same portion of the cell SOUTH of Marshall that had prompted the TStorm Warning. Apparently it wasn't. It was for this scary lowering rotation to my west in Kzoo county:

Poring thru GRR's storm reports, there's zero reports of damage from this or even any funnel sightings, so I don't think an actual tornado formed, but it was a massive rotating shelf cloud (a lot like our May of 2011 funnel blow-down event) and could've been really bad had it indeed become a fully formed twister.

jaster220

Posted 02 September 2018 - 06:01 AM

jaster220

St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

Members

5198 posts

LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Several Tornado Warnings were issued Saturday across Southwest Michigan by the National Weather Service in Grand Rapids. It began in northern Kalamazoo and southwestern Barry Counties as tornado alerts were issued for some dangerous storms that popped up in the late afternoon. Shortly later, a Tornado Warning was issued for southern Calhoun County which remained in effect until 8:15. After that, all counties in the southwest Michigan area had been cleared of any severe weather warnings. Farther north, Mecosta County also was under a Tornado Warning this evening around the same time.

The bolded is the warning I was aware of. If there indeed was an earlier warning for the other counties, I did not see that when I checked the CWA headlines for the closer hail warned storm. Looks like little or no damage was reported from that scary massive rotation near the race track. A shed tipped and tree damage. Story said NWS will be surveying for whether there was an actual tornado or not? Meanwhile, that cell that popped up over Marshall and headed east brought 3+ inches of rain to Jackson in a short period causing some major flooding in a low spot of I-94 and forced closure of the westbound side there. Also, I see thousands without power in and around Grand Rapids this morning, so we may not hear from WMJim for a bit.

Warmest summer on record (since 1888) for Sault Saint Marie in the UP. Top 10 warmest in all other major cities across NMI, and it finished with a bang as they had (6) damaging tornados on Tuesday evening and lots of damaging winds and knocked out power lines in the forested areas. (2 tor's were in the GRR coverage region).

Niko

Looks like Macomb scored earlier on the first wave of T-storms that managed to whiff me over here. How'd you make out?

To be honest, I had no idea t'stms were coming towards my area, as I was attending a wedding at the time. Suddenly, looking out the church windows, all branches on the trees were blowing sideways and torrential rain falling. No thunder. Just wind and very heavy rain. Then, it eventually stopped. Afterwards at the reception, went outside to get some fresh air w a buddy of mine and it was pouring again w strong breezes. So, to sum it up, I'd say, Ma Nature provided some needed water. Yayyy...no sprinklers today.

Hawkeye

How are trends looking for CR so far today? I picked up 0.37 inches of rain last night. A thin band of heavy rain moves through my area around 10:00pm last night.

There's a boundary from sw to ne Iowa. The ne and sw ends are firing good storms, but so far there's not much in between. Models suggest this boundary will push through the area and stall to the southeast. The question is will the line fill in before passing by.

OKwx2k4

Posted 02 September 2018 - 12:38 PM

OKwx2k4

Advanced Member

Members

3544 posts

Guess I was not in touch with this. I left the building (literally) to take my car that's normally in my driveway down to the concrete parking garage when I heard severe wx sirens going off (there's one at the end of my street 2 doors down so you can't miss it, lol) and saw the warning issued for 60 mph winds and likely hail damage to vehicles. But that warning was for Marshall and SE. Then my daughter said a short while later that there was also a Tor Warning and I presumed it was for that same portion of the cell SOUTH of Marshall that had prompted the TStorm Warning. Apparently it wasn't. It was for this scary lowering rotation to my west in Kzoo county:

Poring thru GRR's storm reports, there's zero reports of damage from this or even any funnel sightings, so I don't think an actual tornado formed, but it was a massive rotating shelf cloud (a lot like our May of 2011 funnel blow-down event) and could've been really bad had it indeed become a fully formed twister.

OKwx2k4

Iowawx

Posted 02 September 2018 - 01:07 PM

Iowawx

Forum Member

Members

452 posts

LocationCedar Rapids, Iowa

There's a boundary from sw to ne Iowa. The ne and sw ends are firing good storms, but so far there's not much in between. Models suggest this boundary will push through the area and stall to the southeast. The question is will the line fill in before passing by.

Hawkeye

Posted 02 September 2018 - 01:26 PM

Hawkeye

Daily Contributor

Members

1585 posts

LocationCedar Rapids, IA

Radar looks good for our area, don't you think?

Well, there's a decent line to the west. However, it's not really pushing east. It may be a scenario where the outflow pushes through and little cells bubble up behind the boundary. Some spots may get a nice downpour, while others miss out.