Monday, July 11, 2016

2016 Grandmas Marathon Analysis

Interesting fact, the marathon was named after Grandmas Restaurant who sponsored it (when apparently no one else would) when it was a inaugural event with only 150 participants in 1977. I always wondered where it got its name because it is definitely unique! Read more over on Wikipedia and the Duluth Tribune has a great article on it's history, if you're curious!

It seems like 2016 late spring is the year of heat for the East Coast and Midwest because this race wasn't spared. Race start was 75F! That's pretty rough. I would imagine by the time most people were finishing it was over 80F easily. These conditions make it very hard to perform well and that is evidenced in the results.

AG Group

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

Percentage

2016 Qualifiers

2016 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

219

1291

16.96%

103

1564

6.59%

F35-39

78

412

18.93%

43

681

6.31%

F40-44

67

322

20.81%

28

564

4.96%

F45-49

46

230

20.00%

32

384

8.33%

F50-54

52

206

25.24%

28

281

9.96%

F55-59

30

97

30.93%

20

159

12.58%

F60-64

10

46

21.74%

9

70

12.86%

F65-69

1

16

6.25%

2

20

10.00%

F70-74

0

3

0.00%

1

7

14.29%

F75-79

1

2

50.00%

0

1

0.00%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

M18-34

256

1343

19.06%

116

1368

8.48%

M35-39

68

486

13.99%

35

533

6.57%

M40-44

69

418

16.51%

32

502

6.37%

M45-49

74

359

20.61%

28

413

6.78%

M50-54

64

348

18.39%

30

364

8.24%

M55-59

40

233

17.17%

30

307

9.77%

M60-64

35

153

22.88%

14

164

8.54%

M65-69

17

64

26.56%

10

75

13.33%

M70-74

6

15

40.00%

3

21

14.29%

M75-79

0

4

0.00%

0

3

0.00%

M80+

1

2

50.00%

0

2

0.00%

Totals

1134

6050

18.74%

564

7483

7.54%

This is about the worst year over year I've seen for BQs. In fact it is the worst. There are about 50% fewer qualifiers. Boston was second worst behind that at around 30% fewer qualifiers.

Margin

2015

Percentage

2016

Percentage

<1 minute

67

5.91%

25

4.43%

1-2 minutes

62

5.47%

24

4.26%

2-3 minutes

64

5.64%

37

6.56%

3-4 minutes

59

5.20%

23

4.08%

4-5 minutes

46

4.06%

28

4.96%

5-10 minutes

213

18.78%

115

20.39%

10-20 minutes

298

26.28%

138

24.47%

20> minutes

325

28.66%

174

30.85%

Totals

1134

564

2015 Squeaker Pack: 26.28%
2016 Squeaker Pack: 24.29%

Interestingly, the Squeaker Pack is smaller which makes me wonder if the only runners that were able to BQ in the heat were the fastest runners who usually have 10+ minute margins.

Well, it goes without saying the cutoff prediction is not going up.

Here are the totals:

AG Group

2016 Qualifiers

20156 AG Total

Percentage

2017 Qualifiers

2017 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

5074

40624

12.49%

4254

39474

10.78%

F35-39

2307

16171

14.27%

2078

16405

12.67%

F40-44

2302

15418

14.93%

1961

15165

12.93%

F45-49

2325

11186

20.78%

2048

11664

17.56%

F50-54

1461

7388

19.78%

1373

7867

17.45%

F55-59

770

3711

20.75%

664

3777

17.58%

F60-64

335

1532

21.87%

342

1652

20.70%

F65-69

95

480

19.79%

110

530

20.75%

F70-74

21

136

15.44%

20

160

12.50%

F75-79

4

28

14.29%

1

22

4.55%

F80+

1

4

25.00%

4

10

40.00%

M18-34

4601

36562

12.58%

3653

34706

10.53%

M35-39

2280

19209

11.87%

1896

18602

10.19%

M40-44

2598

20888

12.44%

2157

19768

10.91%

M45-49

3137

17647

17.78%

2600

17665

14.72%

M50-54

2422

13980

17.32%

2012

13971

14.40%

M55-59

1597

8511

18.76%

1405

8888

15.81%

M60-64

966

4532

21.32%

910

4669

19.49%

M65-69

434

1888

22.99%

404

2000

20.20%

M70-74

135

630

21.43%

105

632

16.61%

M75-79

25

167

14.97%

30

181

16.57%

M80+

6

38

15.79%

10

43

23.26%

Totals

32896

220730

14.90%

28037

217851

12.87%

That is 13.64% fewer qualifiers which is up 13.5% after Ottawa.

Margin

2016

Percentage

2017

Percentage

<1 minute

1819

5.53%

1578

5.63%

1-2 minutes

1792

5.45%

1580

5.64%

2-3 minutes

1804

5.48%

1507

5.38%

3-4 minutes

1647

5.01%

1399

4.99%

4-5 minutes

1550

4.71%

1292

4.61%

5-10 minutes

6899

20.97%

5984

21.34%

10-20 minutes

9262

28.16%

7812

27.86%

20> minutes

8123

24.69%

6885

24.56%

Totals

32896

28037

The Squeaker Pack is slightly bigger in the 2017 qualification year - 26.24% vs 26.18%.

On to the cutoff calculation!

The number of runners achieving better than 147 seconds of margin for the races in the 2016 qualification year in the 20 races analyzed is 28405.
As you can see, I don't even have to run a query on the database. There are nearly 400 more qualifiers over 147 than we have total qualifiers.

3 comments:

So, I just want to be really clear because I'm getting excited. 0 cutoff means that if you made your BQ time, you would get in (I know there are more races coming, but as it stands right now). I just want to make sure that I'm not missing anything with the Squeaker Pack analysis or anything :) I made mine with a 2:33 cushion, so I'm hoping!

If the prediction is right, yes, that would the case. I have 2:37 so I'm in a very similar boat to you. That was still good enough last year - it is looking very unlikely that this year will be worse than last year. It will be really interesting to see what happens with the registration volume this year. That is what till dictate if we see a cutoff or not.