The Chinese brand progression in the last couple of years has been impressive, from #11 in 2013, with less than 3.000 units delivered, BYD has becomed the undisputed Best Selling manufacturer in the World!

After rising to #7 (And 18k sales) in 2014, thanks to the Qin performance, BYD was simply irresistible this year: Fourth in January, Third in June, Second in July, and finally first in October.

The model diversification (Tang, e5, etc) occurred in the second half of the year, not only contributed to win the Best Selling Manufacturer title, but it also tripled sales YoY, will they be able to keep up with this booming trend in 2016?

Even if they can't, this extraordinary performance places the chinese carmaker as one of the top players for 2016, along with Nissan, Tesla or Volkswagen.

A differentiating feature of BYD is also the global in-house approach to batteries, instead of sub-contracting them to a battery supplier, they are made in-house, not only for their cars, but also for e-buses (6.000 delivered in 2015), forklifts, storage utilities, etc.

Basically you can say that this Chinese company is the opposite of a regular plug-in automaker: For BYD, batteries are the core product, while the rest of the car is just a a by-product...

China is Rising - Second Chapter

2015 was Year Two for the Chinese EV market, with foreign makers still neglecting the Chinese EV market, where the local brands have 95% of this booming market to themselves, this allowed the Chinese EV makers global share to rise from 6% in 2013, to 17% in the following year, to 31% in 2015, with China becoming the largest EV Maker in the world and also the largest market for plug-ins globally.

The EV Share in China is now at 0.9%, an impressive improvement over the 0.24% of 2014 and above markets like the USA or Germany, with these indications, 2016 will surely break the 1% barrier, maybe even reaching 1.5%.

If BYD and Kandi are frequently mentioned here, others are also contributing for this unstoppable wave, like Zotye (#9 in the manufacturers ranking), BAIC (#12), Chery (#13) or SAIC (#15).

An interesting trend is the steady climb of chinese cars in the global ranking, if in 2013 the best positioned chinese model was outside the Top 10 (#11 - Chery QQ3 EV), in the following year there were two (#7 - BYD Qin & #10 - Kandi EV) in the Top 10, and 2015 will probably witness four models in the Best Sellers ranking (#4 - BYD Qin; #6 - Kandi Panda EV; #9 - BAIC E-Series EV; #10 - BYD Tang).

Expect for 2016 to reinforce this trend...

Model S Excels

Although the Model X is currently filling the headlines for Tesla, the Model S has done 99,99% of the heavy lifting for the Fremont-based automaker, and despite costing twice as much as the rest of the EV competition, it has become the Best Selling EV this year!

- To date, it was the only plug-in car that has consistently sold in the same league of their ICE class best sellers, managing even to outsell them in some markets (Norway, Switzerland, Denmark...).

Volkswagen I - Das (Plug-In) Auto

The German automaker ended 2014 in a discrete #11 in the EV manufacturers ranking and #6 in Europe, a poor showing for the largest auto manufacturer in Europe and one of the largest in the World.

Fast Forward two months to February '15 and things were looking very different, with the heat pumped e-Golf and Golf GTE tandem in full swing, the Wolfsburg-based manufacturer was leader in Europe and #4 worldwide.

Throughout the following months, VW kept leading the way in several top Markets (Norway, Netherlands...) and discussing with Mitsubishi the European Leadership, while on a global level, it had dropped one position, staying firm in Fifth.

By the time the IAA Expo opened in September, prospects were good for VW's plug-in plans, despite not pushing their sales effort, they had stabilized the leadership in Europe, the Fifth Place was also secure on a global level, and with the all-important Passat GTE coming soon, it looked that the slow but steady approach to EV's was working, and somewhere in the future, the automaker would be ready to lead the transition to electric without hurting too much their profits...

Unlike their regular ICE car sales, VW plug-ins weren't affected by the scandal, keeping in line with longer term trends, like the sinking of the VW e-Up! (Down to ten positions to #16 in Europe), the solid performances from the Golf GTE and e-Golf, and the incoming success of the Passat GTE, already the best selling model of its class in November.

German Automakers finally warm up to Plug-ins

Following on the success of the BMW i sub-brand, VW's Dieselgate and Tesla's increasingly larger appetite for premium customers, German automakers joined the EV bandwagon with both feet this year, creating plug-in (hybrid) versions of regular ICE cars and selling them as expensive options for early adopters / compliance markets:

- After the BMW i-line models, the German automaker launched the X5 PHEV version, which has received a positive welcome from consumers, already beating the i3 in some markets as the best selling BMW Plug-in, a positive sign for the upcoming 225xe Active Tourer and 330e;

- The Audi A3 e-Tron has found success in Europe, reaching #7 this year and looking to replicate the success in North America in 2016;

- Mercedes has now four(!) Plug-in models on sale, with sales increasing every month, mostly thanks to the runaway success of the C350e, with an extended waiting list, this is one carmaker that could sell even more if it wanted to;

- Regarding the other two german auto manufacturers present, Smart lost 33% of sales YoY, still waiting for the new Fortwo / Fourfour model, while Porsche is comfortably managing their leadership position in the upper-end of the Premium segment;

- The GM-adopted Opel Ampera has ended its career, and because Opel was denied for a Ampera II model, it has to wait for the Bolt-based model to be available in 2017;

- German automakers Global Share almost doubled, from 11% in 2014, to 20% in 2015, with Volkswagen (7% Share) surpassing BMW (6%) as the major Teutonic EV maker, with Audi in Third, with 2% share, Mercedes in Fourth (2%), followed by Porsche (1%) and Smart (1%).

Global Sales Continue to Grow

After a slower start, EV sales have increased greatly towards the second half of this year, with the last quarter above the 50k sales/month, with global sales now expected to surpass the 500.000 units barrier, after the 140k of 2012, low-200k in 2013 and 320k in 2014, looking back, the initial forecast of 400k units this year now looks a bit conservative.

Growth Is All Around

While Norway continues to be the poster-child for EV Share (23%!) and China the King of Volume (Over 100.000 units more than in 2014!), others are also making themselves noted, like The Netherlands, growing from one year to the other in an astounding way (15k in '14 vs 35-40k in '15), France (1.37% Share in '15 vs 0,91% in '14), Switzerland (2.00% vs 0.75%), Hong Kong (2.57% vs 0.47%) and the UK (1.03% vs 0.56%), while several countries in the Scandinavian region, probably inspired by the Norwegian case-study, are growing at surprising rates and reaching high market shares, like Sweden (2.23%), Iceland (2.80%) on Denmark (1,64%).

Other markets finally had their Year One in 2015, like South Korea (0,14% in 2015 vs 0,08% in '14), the Czech Republic (0,18% vs 0,04%), Slovenia (0,18% vs 0,05%) or Ukraine (0.98% vs virtually zero), while others have rebounded into the righteous path, like Portugal (0,64% in '15 vs 0,25% in '14).

Slowing markets were just a few this year, with the largest of them being the USA and Japan, while the Latvian and Estonian markets simply imploded, dropping from a few hundred units a year lo less than fifty.

Also of importance is the dissemination of plug-ins by countries not associated with EV's, like South Africa (Currently in Year Zero, with some 250 units), Mexico (Ditto, 350 sales), Colombia (211 Twizzies registered!), Taiwan (92 EV's registered in 2015), Malaysia (30), Malta (27), Chile (25) or Tahiti (22 Twizzies).

Year Zero for Fuel Cells

Retail sales finally started for the Toyota Mirai, but in limited numbers, with the total volume of sales around 500/600 units globally, divided by the Toyota Mirai and Hyundai ix35/Tucson FCEV, with the first outselling the second in an order of 4 to 1.

This year, (PH)EV's spreaded across several segments, with two of them receiving new models, almost at once:

- Luxury SUV's (0% in '14, 2% this year) saw the arrival en force of the BMW X5 PHEV, the Volvo XC90 PHEV has finally started to fulfill a really high waiting list, while the Tesla Model X, Mercedes GLE500e and Audi Q7 e-Tron are still to arrive in significant numbers;

- The Midsize class (D-Segment, in Europe) has seen the arrival of the hot Mercedes C350e, but an even hotter model has arrived in the end of 2015, the VW Passat GTE, which promises to be a market leader in Europe, and with the BMW 330e bound to land soon, this class will surely grow fast in 2016.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Thanks to another outstanding performance of the chinese market, this time with the help from Europe, a new monthly record was set, with almost 60.000 plug-ins sold last month, which not only represents a 12% increase over the last record (51k), set in the previous month, but also a significant 115%(!)increase regarding the same month last year, pulling the YTD sales to 447k units, meaning that we are headed forover 500.000 units at the end of the year.

The Tesla Model S was the Star of the Month, delivering 5.377 units, its best mid-quarter result ever, and a 143%(!) improvement Year-on-Year, allowing it not only to be the Best Seller of the Month (For the third time this year), but also managing to remove the Nissan Leaf from the YTD leadership for the first time in three years(!), knowing that the last month of each quarter has a sales peak of the Model S, i would say the Californian will be the Best Selling EV of 2015, a first for the Fremont brand, after two Third Places (2008 - Roadster & 2014 - Model S) and two Runner-Up positions (2009 & 2010 - Roadster).Looking elsewhere (China), the Kandi Panda EV continues to impress, selling 4.153 units and reaching #2 in November, leading the wave of four(!) chinese models that made it to the Top 10: The BYD Tang Sports SUV was #4, with 4.049 units, the Zotye Cloud EV, #6 with 3.730 sales and finally, the BAIC E-Series EV was #9, with 2.104 units.On the losers side...Taking the risk of copying myself frequently, the Nissan Leaf desperately needs to start selling the 30kWh worldwide, the 2.171 registrations (Worst performance since early 2012) made it lose another 1% share, mounting to 10% the amount of share lost by the japanese regarding last year...Worst of all, the 25% sales decline made it loose the YTD leadership and most likely won't be able to renew its Best Selling EV trophy won in the last two years.

Besides the aforementioned leadership change, the only notable position change in the YTD ranking was the Kandi Panda EV shooting to #6, while the #12 Zotye Cloud EV and #13 BYD Tang will try to reach #10 in the last month of the year.

Pl

WORLD

Nov.

YTD

%

'14Pl

1

Tesla Model S

5.377

42.076

9

3

2

Nissan Leaf

2.171

41.067

9

1

3

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV

3.770

36.165

8

2

4
5
6
7

BYD QinBMW i3Kandi Panda EV
Renault Zoe

2.021
2.215
4.153
2.065

30.38622.55515.68915.688

7
5
4
4

7
6
26
9

8

Chevrolet Volt (1)

2.183

15.085

3

4

9

BAIC E-Series EV

2.104

14.792

3

16

10

Volkswagen e-Golf

1.439

14.149

3

21

TOTAL

57.851

446.821

Manufacturers - Tesla Back to Third

This was the fifthsixth seventh consecutive month that BYD won the Best Selling Manufacturer title, and everytime with a record month (Now at 7.728 units), the chinese carmaker has rapidly left behind Nissan, now 5.000 units away. And to think BYD ended 2014 in Seventh...

In the race for #3, another position change, Tesla is now ahead, now that the Model X is finally helping out with the sales burden, it looks that the all-electric brand is poised to secure the Bronze Medal in December, but still, a lot can still happen until the end of the year...Like Tesla surpassing sales expectations and catch Nissan in Second.In the low end of the manufacturers ranking, things remain pretty leveled, Kandi is now pressuring the #7 Renault, while Zotye reached #9, surpassing Ford, that stumbled big time this year, dropping from #5 last year, to an endangered #10 (The Volt II-fied Chevrolet is #11, some 1.000 units behind).

Friday, December 25, 2015

Record Month EditionIt wasn't only the weather that stayed warmer than usual in Europe, hot plug-in sales reached a new all-time high in November, with a record 19.577 units were sold, up 14% regarding the previous month and an impressive 115% YoY, with nearly 160.000 registered until now, total YTD sales are headed for 150k170k 180-190k units this year, a significant departure over the 100k registered in 2014.

Looking at the monthly models ranking, the Mitsu Outlander PHEV is fully profiting from the restyled version, selling 2.876 units, its best result since March, comfortably ahead of the Number Two, the Renault Zoe, with 2.041 units, followed by the Tesla Model S, Third with 1.425 sales.

Outside the podium seats, we have the VW Golf GTE (1.416 units) in Fourth, followed by the Star of the Month, the BMW i3, that has registered 1.287 units, beating its previous record by over 100 units (1.125 units last August).

As for the Good Ol' Nissan Leaf, the waiting for the 30kWh version is clearly visible, with sales down to just 752 units, we have to go back more than two years (March 2013, 671 units) to see such a low level of sales coming from the japanese hatch...

Some models outside the Top 5 deserve a mention, the recent VW Passat GTE ended the month just outside the Top 5, at #6 with 1.247 units, while the Mercedes C350e had a spike in sales, rising to #8 with 939 units, whereas the long-running champion of the D-Segment/midsize class, the Volvo V60 Plug-In, also had a remarkable result, registering 722 units, its best result in two years!

Another hot segment is the Luxury SUV, where the Volvo XC90 T8 Plug-in Hybrid (731 sales) left the once undisputed leader, Porsche Cayenne Plug-in (309 units) miles behind, while the other rising star, the BMW X5 40e PHEV (461 sales), also has beaten the Cayenne by a wide margin.

Pl

Model

Sales

1

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV

2.876

2

Renault Zoe

2.041

3

Tesla Model S

1.425

4

VW Golf GTE

1.416

5

BMW i3

1.287

Looking at the YTD ranking, the major change is the Renault Zoe ascending to the Second Place, switching positions with the Nissan Leaf, that dropped to #3, its worst position since February.

But it's below the Top 10 that things really become interesting: The Mercedes C350e climbs one position to #12, while the rising star Volkswagen Passat GTE jumped an additional four positions, this time to #17, will this be the 2016 D-Segment/midsize class Best Seller?

The Volvo XC90 T8 Plug-In joined the ranking at an impressive #23, already beating the direct competitor, the BMW X5 40e Plug-In, itself up four positions to #25.

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen is stable in the lead of Europe's EV Manufacturers Throne (19%, up 1%), followed by Mitsubishi (16%) in Second and Renault in Third, with 13%, while Nissan is #4, with 11%, down 1% share.

Cayenne and Model S sprint for #1Some 300 EV's were sold in Belgium last month, doubling sales regarding the same month last year, placing the EV Share at 0,75% and with YTD sales at 3.551 units, will we see sales reach 4.000 this year?

The two at the top continue their close run, the Tesla Model S (49 units) losing yet a bit more ground to the Porsche Cayenne Plug-In (64 sales), with the difference between the two now just 3316 one unit! Will Porsche's SUV defeat Tesla in the last round?

In the rest of the ranking, the Volvo V60 Plug-In had its best selling month since March, registering 40 units, pressuring the VW Golf GTE in the race for #4, while the Nissan Leaf registered (Again) only one delivery. The upcoming 30kWh version is really taking an impact in sales in the current version...

Good result of the Mercedes C350e, with 20 units, allowing it to jump three positios to #14, while Volvo's Belgian importer managed to divert 11 XC90 T8 from the Netherlands sales fever and make that model land in a rather significant way.

In the manufacturers ranking, everything remains the same, with Porsche leading (24%), followed closely by Tesla (21%, down 1%) and BMW in Third, with 15%.

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Great landing for the motorway bruiser, middle-managers can now go green too!

VW Passat GTE Lands

The French EV market continues on a high note, with 2.688 units sold, doubling sales regarding the same month last year, pulling the YTD EV Share to yet another record, now at 1.37%, or 0.05% more than a month ago.Looking at the monthly models ranking, it's business as usual in the leadership, with the Renault Zoe on top, although was down 19% regarding the previous month, the Kangoo ZE relative in Second, with 346 units (Second best performance of the year), with the Nissan Leaf recovering the Third Spot, with 173 sales.A mention to the VW Passat GTE, debuting with a bang, with 107 units registered right away (New landing month record), allowing it to reach #8 in November. For the record, its smaller relative, the Golf GTE, landed with 69 units, will this mean that the midsizer VW will outsell its hatch relative next year? Further more, will it reach #3? #2, even?

Pl

Model

Sales

1

Renault Zoe

885

2

Renault Kangoo ZE

346

3

Nissan Leaf

173

4

VW Golf GTE

150

5

Bolloré Blue Car

130

Looking at the YTD ranking, the main change was the Renault Kangoo ZE returning to Second Place, switching positions with the Nissan Leaf and placing the podium exactly as last year (And in 2013...).

But there were other changes, the Mitsu Outlander PHEV climbed to #7 (125 units, pb of the year), the Peugeot iOn rose one position to #9, as did the Renault Twizy and Kia Soul EV, now #11 and #13, respectively, with the Korean celebrating another personal best, with 65 sales in November, while the Citröen C-Zero was up one position, to #16. The performance of the I-Miev triplets deserve a special mention, as they seem to have been one of the main benefitters of the Superbonus scheme (Thanks to it, they cost only 12.000€...), let's compare their current performance to what they had a year ago:- Peugeot iOn, #9 in Nov. 2015, with 630 units (#12 in Nov.2014, with 206 units); - Citröen C-Zero, #16, 321 units (#13, 151);- Mitsubishi I-Miev, #30, 38 units (0 units in 2014), with an all time record of 42 sales set in 2011.
In the Luxury SUV niche, the BMW X5 plug-in seems to be en vogue, beating the Cayenne Plug-In by 52 vs 44, while also jumping four positions to #20 in the YTD ranking.

In the manufacturers ranking, everything stayed the same, with Renault stable in the lead (50% Share), followed by Nissan (10%) and Volkswagen (9%).