Republicans hold a supermajority in the Kansas Legislature, of which only the House is up for election this year, and an overall trifecta with Gov. Sam Brownback in office. With Republicans outnumbering Democrats roughly 2.9 to 1 in the House and only ten Republicans departing after this year, the 2014 state legislative elections in Kansas are not competitive enough to be considered a Ballotpedia battleground state. However, Ballotpedia' analysis of margin of victory in 2012 state legislative elections shows 23 districts to watch.[1]

The Republican lead in the House is 61 seats (93-32), most recently bolstered by the defection of Janice Pauls to the GOP from the Democratic Party in late May.[2] There are fifteen Republican and seven Democratic districts considered to be competitive or mildly competitive this year, based on analysis of margin of victory in the 2012 election. Thirty-three districts (including one with both parties having contests) will be contested in the state primary on August 12, 2014. But 60.8 percent of seats will pair a Republican and a Democrat in the general election on November 4, 2014.[3]

The difference in partisan composition between Republicans and Democrats in the House is 61 seats, or 48.8 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. In 76 of the 125 districts up for election, two major party candidates will appear on the general election ballot.[3]

Margin of victory

All 125 seats in the House are up for election in 2014. Nine of those seats held competitive elections in 2012 with a margin of victory ranging from 0 to 5 percent. Fourteen other elections were moderately competitive with a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent. However, one of the mildly competitive seats is now uncontested. Those districts are:

District 2: Incumbent Adam Lusker (D) is unopposed in the primary and general elections. Lusker was appointed in January 2014; his predecessor, Robert Grant (D), won by a margin of 10 percent in 2012.

Competitiveness

Using the official candidate lists from each state, Ballotpedia staff analyzes each district's election to look at the following circumstances:

Is the incumbent running for re-election?

If an incumbent is running, do they face a primary challenger?

Are both major parties represented on the general election ballot?

In Kansas' 2014 elections, those circumstances break down as follows:[3]

There are 13 open seats (10.4%) in the one chamber up for election.

A total of 21 incumbents (16.8%) face a primary challenger.

75 districts (60.0%) will feature a Democratic and Republican candidate on the general election ballot.

The following table puts the 2014 data into historical context. Overall index is calculated as the average of the three circumstances. As with the 2014 elections, the Senate was not up for election in 2010.

House

Candidates unopposed by a major party

In 102 of the 160 districts up for election in 2014, one major party candidate will run unopposed in the general election. A total of 85 Democrats and 17 Republicans are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.

Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 58 of the 160 districts up for election.

Primary challenges

A total of 21 incumbents (16.8%), all Republicans, will face primary competition on August 5. Thirteen incumbents (10.4%) are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another 91 incumbents (72.8%) will advance past the primary without opposition. The primary challenges include: