Reasons: The one match up
the Patriots didn’t want; the Ravens
come into Foxborough having won two of the last three playoff games at Gillette
Stadium, all since 2009. Not only are the Ravens a historically tough match up,
they’re a literal tough match up Saturday. The Patriots and Ravens are
relatively evenly matched in most yardage, points, and situational statistics;
about the only place the two teams divert is with offensive Red Zone
efficiency, offensive 3rd-down conversions, and turnovers. The real
difference this year, and the reason for the seven-point spread, that that the
Patriots have never had all of their wide receivers and tight ends,
specifically Rob Gronkowski, available to them against the Ravens. The Patriots
also didn’t have Darrell Revis and Brandon Browner. Those former Ravens teams
were playing with much more spirit (Ray
Lewis) and this current Patriots team is far too talented.

The Patriots came back from down 14 points twice
in this game and picked off Joe Flacco’s last gasp effort in the end zone to
seal the win after a wild, evenly matched Divisional game between two evenly matched
teams. Flacco looked brilliant in the first half, but two costly INTs did Flacco
and the Ravens in. The Patriots pulled brilliant tricks out of their offensive bag,
including a 51-yard TD pass from WR Julian Edleman and a legal formation new to
professional football, prompting Ravens head coach John Harbaugh to embarrass
himself by suggesting the Patriots were calling illegal plays, and then once
finding out they were legal, suggesting the Patriots were pulling cheap shot
moves. Tom Brady responded by saying Harbaugh should study the playbook more; I
say people that live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones. Considering the level
of integrity the Ravens’ organization has in the face of all their many
horrific domestic violence issues, forcing victims to apologize for their roles,
and championing players who both went to prison for drugs, and who were acquitted
of homicide but convicted of obstruction of justice, perhaps the last thing the
Ravens’ should be doing is accusing model organizations of everything under the
Sun in pathetic, desperate attempts to bring them to their level. New England
only rushed for seven yards on three carries to Baltimore’s 135 yards on 28 carries (Justin
Forsett ran for 129 on 24 carries), but Brady threw for 367 yards and 3 TDs in
addition to Edleman’s 51-yard TD. The Patriots committed one fewer turnover –
the key to the victory. The Patriots now play in their 4th straight
AFC Championship, and 9th in the 14 years of the Belichick-Brady duo.

Reasons: The Carolina
Panthers defense has only allowed 14.4 ppg over the last five weeks including
the playoffs, and Jonathan Stewart had more rushing yards than any other
running back in the league over the last four weeks of the season. The only
problem with that is their opponent only allowed 15.9 ppg over the entire season, and their running back Marshawn
Lynch is the league’s premier running back and finished fourth among all backs. Despite the ride the Panthers
have been on going from disappointment to NFC South title, Carolina might be
running into the hottest team in the NFL. The Seahawks have the league’s
top-ranked rushing offense, passing defense, scoring defense, and are tied with
New England for the largest point differential per game (+9). Considering the game is at CenturyLink Field, where the
Seahawks are 16-2 the last two seasons, including the playoffs, the Panthers
stand little chance. The Panthers fought the Seahawks hard Week 8, losing 13-9,
but the Panthers hadn’t hit their low mark yet at that point, while the
Seahawks were just ascending from their early season funk. The spread may seem ridiculous,
but the Sharps don’t ride the emotional rollercoaster like the fans do.

If you didn’t watch this game you would have
no any idea how close it was. The Seahawks only led 17-10 with just under 11
minutes left in the 4th quarter, and Seattle closed the game with
fewer first downs, fewer offensive yards, fewer rushing yards, a lower rushing
average, and more penalties in eight fewer minutes of possession; the defense
even had the same number of sacks (2). The problem was, the Seahawks beat the
Panthers soundly in the two categories that matter most: turnovers (3 – 2 INTs;
1 fumble) and the final score (31-17). The Seahawks would be the first to admit the Panthers played a smash-mouth style akin to their own, and
were probably stunned the Panthers hung around so long on the shoulders of a rookie wide receiver and by their 132 rushing yards (30 carries). Kelvin Benjamin, the clear case
ROY if he weren’t part of the greatest rookie wide receiving class in recent memory,
gave the Seahawk’s secondary fits at times, gaining 75 yards and 2 TDs on seven
receptions (10 targets) –there could have been far more if not for a few near
misses. The game belonged to the Seahawks, however, as Russell Wilson outplayed
Cam Newton and the defense, specifically Kam Chancellor, outplayed the
Panthers. We won’t even get into Chancellor leaping the line to block a FG
twice and returning an INT for a TD. The Seahawks are one step closer to
becoming the first team since the ’03-’04 New England Patriots to repeat as
Champions and face a hobbled Aaron Rodgers at home to get there.

Reasons: The Cowboys are
8-0 on the road this season, and the Packers are 8-0 at home; this is the first
such match up in playoff history. The game comes down to two juggernaut
offenses with similar styles and mediocre defense clashing in Lambeau for only
the second time in history since the Ice Bowl in 1967. These teams are evenly
matched; these teams “win” their games 30-22 (Packers) and 29-22 (Cowboys).
The Packers have one of the better passing offenses in the league (8th) and the Cowboys and
DeMarco Murray have the league’s second-ranked rushing offense. The same can be
said for the defenses – the Cowboys have the 8th-ranked rush defense
and the Packers have the league’s 10th-ranked pass defense. Clearly
it helps to play against these guys all week in practice. The game really comes
down to Aaron Rodgers’ health and the Cowboys nerves. Dallas has gone from the “accident
waiting to happen” to the “Super Bowl Champ waiting to happen”, and hopes run
high through the Texas plains. If Rodgers is 75% of himself the Cowboys defense
could be in for a long day, but if Rodgers can’t be Rodgers, and Tony Romo can
avoid living up to his playoff name, then the Cowboys stand a real chance.

It shall be forever known as “The [no] Catch”. In
a play that will be debated for years, and could spark a changing of the rule,
Dez Bryant was ruled to have not maintained control throughout the entire
process of the reception, although to me, and at least 75% of the live and aftermath
viewers, not only did Bryant maintain control, he arguably scored a TD on the
play considering he officially gained final control in the end zone. Regardless,
no game can ever be reduced to one play, and the Cowboys had their chances.
DeMarco Murray rushed for 123 yards and a TD on 25 carries, but had a costly
fumble; Romo played well, but was sacked four times and was under pressure all
day. The Packers missed a two-point conversion, committed 10 penalties for 87
yards and lost a fumble themselves (Aaron Rodgers), but the play of Rodgers (316
passing yards and 3 TDs), Eddie Lacy (100 rushing yards), and rookie Davante
Adams (117 receiving yards and 1 TD) overcame the mistakes – and the controversial
call – to survive the Divisional round and win a trip to soggy Seattle for the
NFC Championship against a freshly sharpened buzzsaw.

Reasons: Unfortunately
for the Indianapolis Colts they’re only good at one thing, throwing the ball.
The Denver Broncos just happen to be led by the guy who wrote the book on
passing. Also unfortunate for the Colts is that the Broncos happen to have a
respectable defense, and CJ Anderson has been one of the best running backs in
the NFL the second half of the season. The Colts don’t give up many yards, but
they give up points and turn the ball over, something the Broncos don’t do, but
take advantage of. The Colts are also worst in the league defending the Red
Zone, which will prove to be trouble on the road against the Broncos, who rank
4th in offensive Red Zone efficiency. Andrew Luck is the future of
the NFL, but he’s no Peyton Manning yet, and even Manning could never put the
entire team on his shoulders and beat the best
teams in the AFC, just ask the Patriots. Manning proves he’s been playing
possum lately and springs back to life in time to represent the Broncos in
their third AFC Championship in Manning’s three years there.

Peyton Manning looked so bad at times in this
game that post game analysts started wondering if he should retire; then it was
reported Manning had a torn quadriceps the last four week of the season into
the playoffs. I find that hard to believe as we clearly saw him throw off of
his plant leg, the leg in question, but Manning is clearly not 100% - no
kidding, he’s 38 years old and in his 18th season. Considering he's played in 24 playoff games, he's technically played19 ½
season. Besides a TD pass
on the opening drive, Manning and the Broncos looked abysmal. The running game,
the heart of this team the past month of the regular season, was held to 88 rushing
yards on only 20 carries, and Manning completed 56% of his passes for only 211 passing yards, 25% of which came
in garbage time. Andrew Luck threw two INTs, but they either served as punts or
the Broncos weren’t able to do anything with the turnover anyway, so they weren’t costly.
Luck also threw two TDs and helped strengthen Jim Irsay’s ego regarding his
decision to let Manning go and draft Luck. Talk about luck. Just as the Packers
now have to travel to Seattle and face an animal, so now do the Colts, who
haven’t played so well in New England. Some people will tell you the Colts defense
caught fire against the Broncos and held them to 13 points. I’m here to tell
you the Broncos offense was just that bad and that the Colts will have their
hands full with Rob Gronkowski and the Patriots in the AFC Championship, Luck’s
first.

Check back Wednesday to see how we did in Tuesday’s Gone: Week 19 #NFL
Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITIONat
ProFootballMedia.com!