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Forrester’s
recently completed DTV, DVR and HDTV forecast demonstrates some important
dynamics of technology adoption. The first is that the pace of technology
development continues to accelerate. When analog television was first
launched, it took nearly 20 years for color TVs to penetrate more than 50% of
American homes. Forrester’s data shows that HDTVs will reach 50% of US
households in 2010, roughly 13 years after the first HD sales.