I'm not a worshiper of Sirius radio but Pat Kirwan said something interesting yesterday. He reviewed the 2009-2011 drafts and found that over the past three years, the average team finds one starter in each draft. Playoff teams average less than one starter per draft. Any expectation that a decent draft will yield more than one starter is unrealistic. One could argue that the trade up for Whitehead is warranted if Whitehead simply makes the roster.

Based off what?

I can name drafts were the Lions have come away with more than one starter.

2012 - ???2011 - Maybe Titus Young, jury is out on Leshoure and Fairley (but all three maybe starters)2010 - Suh, Best, and Spievey all current starters2009 - Stafford, Pettigrew, Delmas, and Levy2008 - Gos, and Avril (ok Gos maybe on his way out, but he was a starter in 2011)2007 - CJ (ok there's one draft where on one stater was yeilded, but what a starter!)2006-2002 - ok noone from any of those <cough> millen <cough> drafts are on the team. However, we had about 15 of those picks from those years started on our team for a time.2001 - Jeff Backus, and Riola (plus Shaun Rogers as an honerable mention since he started for us for about 4 years before we traded him).

Just going from 2007-2011 we have 11 starters from those drafts (that's 2.2 starters per draft). Add 2001 to that mix and you have roughly the same (2.166 repeating, of course) numbers. Maybe if you factor in that no players from the 2002-2006 drafts are on the team then we have about 1 starter, but that's a weak argument considering a number of those guys started for us. In fact, if you through in the guys who did start for a time on those drafts that's 15 more player you can add. So, from 2001 to 2011 we had 28 players that started from our drafts (that's roughly 2.5 starters per draft).

Look teams trade guys away all the time, so is Kirwan basing it of players who spend their whole carrers with their drafting team? start one year? two years? What's his basis? I cannot vouch for other teams (well, not without doing a buttload of reaserch), but the Lions, on average have 2-3 starters per draft.

I think he's talking about an average where you have to take into account players who leave (either FA or trade) after thier initial contract.

I think Whitehead was a bad pick, but I could see 3 or 4 starters in this draft. Or we could only have one with a few for depth.

However, just making the team isn't a win for the Lions. Coaches can keep guys on the roster because of thier draft status rather than allowing an undrafted guy. M2K is right. If Whitehead ends up out of the NFL in 2 years, then he was a waste of a pick, and the pick we traded away to move up to get him.

there arent any no brainer stars in rd 5 and below so im not sure what people are griping about. i didnt like that they traded away a future 4th rder for a 5th rder and i also thought that they would have been better off moving into the early parts of round 4 than backwards. i felt there was a big dropoff in talent at the bottom of rd4 and the lions took themselves out of the running on some very good players with where they positioned themselves to pick but I dont know enough to bash the players that they took after that point. really there didnt seem to be a lot of good alternatives

I agree with both aspects of your statement. I don't like that they traded away a future 4th round pick for Tahir Whitehead, who appears to be a project player. I also don't like that they moved down in round four rather than up. They basically gave up shots at Boykin and Brooks, both pretty decent corners, once they moved down. While I understand that Ronnell Lewis is a solid find in that round, both Boykin and Brooks were considered values at that point as well.

What bothers me most about this draft is that the Lions got no safety help, and they limited themselves to a single offensive lineman. They could have Konz over Broyles, and that is a move I just can't fathom. While I like some of the value and talent they got, other teams were able to find the Holy Trinity in the draft....Value, Talent, Need. For instance, Pittsburgh got David DeCastro...Value, Talent, Need. Then took Mike Adams in round two. While he's not elite, as a late second round pick he is VTN all the way. The Steelers first five picks were all representative of fill needs with talented players at places where they represented value. However, I think the team that had the absolute best draft among all was Cincinnati. Talk about filling needs, gaining talent and doing it with value picks. All ten of their picks were great. Only Zeitler could be looked at as something of a reach, but not by much. I had Zeitler possibly going to Baltimore in the draft, but no further than the 49ers at 30. They got a starting corner, starting guard, two really good DT prospects, a very talented tight end that fell due to recent legal issues, a pretty good corner in Prater, tow pretty solid receivers, a great safety value in Iloka in late round five, and a running back prospect in Dan Herron that could be their day one starter in the sixth round. That's some pretty strong drafting right there. They add starters, quality depth and did it on both sides of the ball. They are going to be a team to look for.

m2k, i appreciate your analysis, but it seems like your notion of value is at least partially driven by how well known someone is in the media. As we've seen in the draft, team boards and media draftnik boards do tend to generally line up until the middle of the second round or so, but after that, all bets are off. If Mayhew and co. say they took the best players on their board, especially after the 2nd, then we have to take their word for it. Now if these guys are busts and the better known players succeed, then it's fair to question the board itself. But so far in the Mayhew regime, that has almost never been the case.

Just because some of us state our opinions about what would have been a better pick in any given spot, it DOES NOT MEAN that we don't trust Mayhew. Mayhew has done a phenomenal job since taking over. I think he screwed the pooch in round 2 this year though. There was better value for positions of need. Both staying where we were drafting and/or trading up.

May 4th, 2012, 12:29 pm

DJ-B

Pro Bowl Player

Joined: April 5th, 2007, 5:51 pmPosts: 2578

Re: Lions Select Tahir Whitehead - OLB , Temple (Rd 5)

Quick Question - I Dont remember us trading a pick to move up to get him, just that we traded our 4th next year (likely a late 4th) for the 3rd pick of the 5th round this year, so the trade value wasnt too bad, regardless if he panned out. Did we also trade a 7th as apart of that deal that I forgot? I know we traded 1 of the 7ths, but I thought it was apart of another trade.

May 4th, 2012, 12:40 pm

Hystrix

National Champion

Joined: August 13th, 2006, 11:04 pmPosts: 900Location: Colorado

Re: Lions Select Tahir Whitehead - OLB , Temple (Rd 5)

DJ-B wrote:

Quick Question - I Dont remember us trading a pick to move up to get him, just that we traded our 4th next year (likely a late 4th) for the 3rd pick of the 5th round this year, so the trade value wasnt too bad, regardless if he panned out. Did we also trade a 7th as apart of that deal that I forgot? I know we traded 1 of the 7ths, but I thought it was apart of another trade.

Was that all it was? I thought we traded away our (original) 5th rounder and next years 4th...

May 4th, 2012, 12:44 pm

m2karateman

RIP Killer

Joined: October 20th, 2004, 4:16 pmPosts: 10408Location: Where ever I'm at now

Re: Lions Select Tahir Whitehead - OLB , Temple (Rd 5)

Hystrix wrote:

DJ-B wrote:

Quick Question - I Dont remember us trading a pick to move up to get him, just that we traded our 4th next year (likely a late 4th) for the 3rd pick of the 5th round this year, so the trade value wasnt too bad, regardless if he panned out. Did we also trade a 7th as apart of that deal that I forgot? I know we traded 1 of the 7ths, but I thought it was apart of another trade.

Was that all it was? I thought we traded away our (original) 5th rounder and next years 4th...

•Vikings trade the No. 138 pick and a seventh-round pick (No. 223) to the Lions for a seventh-round pick (No. 219) and a fourth-round pick in 2013.

Basically we swapped spots in the 7th round, plus gave up next years fourth rounder to get Whitehead. And while most of you are stating that we didn't give up that much in the way of value, what you have to look at is the fact that we gave that pick to one of our division opponents next year. What's more, it's a move that I don't think was necessary, plain and simple. We still have Ashlee Palmer and Doug Hogue as backups for the weakside spot, which Whitehead is projected to be. Do the Lions feel that neither Palmer nor Hogue will get any better? That's possible. What I do like about his write ups is that he is a hard working player who is referred to as an "overachiever".

It just seems like there's a log jam at linebacker now, but we are real, real thin at safety.

EDIT: I just watched a video of his Combine workouts, and the guy seems a bit heavy footed to me. He doesn't seem light on his feet, at all. He also has TERRIBLE hands. He didn't catch one damn ball thrown to him. I realize that's very secondary, but as a WLB, you are expected to drop into coverage and make some plays.

We'll see how this pans out....

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May 4th, 2012, 12:59 pm

DJ-B

Pro Bowl Player

Joined: April 5th, 2007, 5:51 pmPosts: 2578

Re: Lions Select Tahir Whitehead - OLB , Temple (Rd 5)

Confirmed Details of Trade:

What I said above, plus we swapped 7th round picks and went down from pick 219 to 223.

So again, the trade itself was actually good value (compared to normally losing a whole round when you trade from next years draft.. but the pick itself is another discussion entirely.

Quick Question - I Dont remember us trading a pick to move up to get him, just that we traded our 4th next year (likely a late 4th) for the 3rd pick of the 5th round this year, so the trade value wasnt too bad, regardless if he panned out. Did we also trade a 7th as apart of that deal that I forgot? I know we traded 1 of the 7ths, but I thought it was apart of another trade.

Was that all it was? I thought we traded away our (original) 5th rounder and next years 4th...

•Vikings trade the No. 138 pick and a seventh-round pick (No. 223) to the Lions for a seventh-round pick (No. 219) and a fourth-round pick in 2013.

Basically we swapped spots in the 7th round, plus gave up next years fourth rounder to get Whitehead. And while most of you are stating that we didn't give up that much in the way of value, what you have to look at is the fact that we gave that pick to one of our division opponents next year. What's more, it's a move that I don't think was necessary, plain and simple. We still have Ashlee Palmer and Doug Hogue as backups for the weakside spot, which Whitehead is projected to be. Do the Lions feel that neither Palmer nor Hogue will get any better? That's possible. What I do like about his write ups is that he is a hard working player who is referred to as an "overachiever".

It just seems like there's a log jam at linebacker now, but we are real, real thin at safety.

EDIT: I just watched a video of his Combine workouts, and the guy seems a bit heavy footed to me. He doesn't seem light on his feet, at all. He also has TERRIBLE hands. He didn't catch one damn ball thrown to him. I realize that's very secondary, but as a WLB, you are expected to drop into coverage and make some plays.

We'll see how this pans out....

Not only that. But, an OVERACHIEVER in college, usually ends up being an NFL WASHOUT.

Overachiever being defined as: One who does more than his talent level would suggest that he could do.

Lions defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham isn’t too proud to admit that he failed to see Tahir Whitehead’s potential in the evaluation process for this year’s NFL Draft. Cunningham said it was linebackers coach Matt Burke who first spotted Whitehead’s potential and lobbied for the team to draft him.

The Lions felt strongly enough about Burke’s evaluation to give up a 2013 fourth-round pick in order to move up in the fifth round to get Whitehead.

So far, they haven’t been disappointed with that decision.

Following Monday’s OTA practice, the media asked Cunningham about rookie linebacker Travis Lewis and second-year player Doug Hogue competing for the fourth linebacker spot. He paused for a moment, then instantly re-directed the subject to Whitehead.

“That’s a good question, I’ll tell you about Tahir Whitehead,” Cunningham said. “I’ll start that way."

That’s by far the biggest surprise I've had in quite a while. I think Matt Burke and the scouts did a great job on him. I kept looking at him and I said, 'Matt, I am not sure.' I have always struggled with linebackers because of the way the college game is (played). But Matt Burke said, 'Gun, I believe this guy can play,' and I think Matt Burke was right. And so were the scouts.

"He's much better than a fifth-round draft choice. He is something."

Cunningham then went on to answer the question about Lewis and Hogue, but the fact that he made it a point to include Whitehead in the conversation says a little something about the early impressions Whitehead is leaving on coaches this offseason, especially Cunningham.

Whitehead was a 3-4 on-the-line rush linebacker at Temple and finished his senior year with 12 tackles-for-loss and five sacks. By all accounts, he’s making a seamless transition as an outside linebacker in the team’s 4-3 scheme.

"I think everything fits," Burke said of Whitehead. "You can't have a direct translation from some of the stuff he does on film but everything else sort of fits to a tee and we felt really good about where he's going to go with us there."

Whitehead was running with the first-team defense Monday in the absence of starter Justin Durant (undisclosed) and Hogue (laceration on his arm), so Whitehead should certainly be part of any future conversations about backup linebackers and their possibilities of making an impact this year.

_________________"Good teams don't worry about a whole lot of stuff. They travel, they play, they win. And it doesn't matter where they go, what the time block is, all those kinds of things. They never seem to bother teams that play well, and we want to be one of those teams." -Jim Caldwell

The fact that there were four rookie starters in 2009 (Stafford, Pettigrew, Delmas, and Levy) shows just how bad the Lions were in comparison with the rest of the league.

Quote:

This is a little harsh, Stafford was the first overall pick - he had better start. Pett was also a first round pick, 20th overall - most first rounders are going to project to start. Delmas was the first pick of the 2nd round, so basically a first rounder as well - again, you would expect to nab a starter at that spot. Levy was an early 3rd round pick, that is where things start getting a little more dicey. Now back to 2009, lets not forget Sammie Lee Hill (4th round) who started 12 games a rookie. They didn't have a pick again until mid way through the 6th round (Aaron Brown), otherwise they might have had a few more rookies starting given the roster.

OK, this part in bold...I didn't write any of it. I'm editing the post just to clear up some kind of apparent bug in the board.The part in the quote line, attributed to Hystrix, is a selection from what I wrote earlier today--but the rest of that post is missing. WTH is going on? What happened to my actual post from this morning?

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Last edited by mwill2 on June 6th, 2012, 4:11 pm, edited 3 times in total.

June 6th, 2012, 10:20 am

The Legend

Team President - Rod Wood

Joined: February 11th, 2005, 3:01 pmPosts: 4909Location: WSU

Re: Lions Select Tahir Whitehead - OLB , Temple (Rd 5)

the 1st and 2nd rd picks should start by there 2nd year in the league. 3rd rders should start or have a prominent role while still on there rookie contracts. Some teams consistently find starters at LB and interior line into the 4th and 5th rd.

June 6th, 2012, 2:48 pm

regularjoe12

Off. Coordinator – Jim Bob Cooter

Joined: March 30th, 2006, 12:48 amPosts: 4195Location: Davison Mi

Re: Lions Select Tahir Whitehead - OLB , Temple (Rd 5)

not to mention WR's. Is the #3 WR a starter? How about Nickle CB's? you could argue that tahst a staring position as well. it is in Detroit anyhow.

But like has been mention it REALLY depends on strength of roster. I think it's a good thing that we are only considering one to 2 guys as being starters. That means we have made progress! (10-6 shows that too of course). what Im excited about with this draft is how much depth we got at weak positions. with all the LB's and CB's, if one of them a piece shines we have solid depth at positions of great need. I agree with billy that we still need one more starting calibur CB, but you can't complain about having solid back up depth at postions where we havn't had it in...what..a decade? (least thats what it seems like to me)

I don't know what happened to my original post from this morning but what I was trying to say is that the various complaints about players drafted in 2012 not being starters in 2012 are out of touch with reality. First round picks generally start as rookies...but on playoff teams that isn't always true. Playoff teams, on average, find less than one rookie starter per draft. This is a fact.

Yes, I agree with Legend that drafted players--especially early picks--are expected to make major contributions within a few years; that's what "developmental" players are--guys who help the team later. These players begin their careers on special teams. That's likely where Whitehead will play this year.

Also, I agree with regularjoe12 in that the slot WR and nickel CB are both starters in today's game. In that regard, if the Lions have Bentley in the nickel package and if Reiff wins an OT position I'd say the Lions' draft was a slam dunk. Again, playoff teams don't usually get two rookie starters from a single draft.

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June 6th, 2012, 4:06 pm

Hystrix

National Champion

Joined: August 13th, 2006, 11:04 pmPosts: 900Location: Colorado

Re: Lions Select Tahir Whitehead - OLB , Temple (Rd 5)

mwill2 wrote:

I don't know what happened to my original post from this morning but what I was trying to say is that the various complaints about players drafted in 2012 not being starters in 2012 are out of touch with reality. First round picks generally start as rookies...but on playoff teams that isn't always true. Playoff teams, on average, find less than one rookie starter per draft. This is a fact.

Yes, I agree with Legend that drafted players--especially early picks--are expected to make major contributions within a few years; that's what "developmental" players are--guys who help the team later. These players begin their careers on special teams. That's likely where Whitehead will play this year.

Also, I agree with regularjoe12 in that the slot WR and nickel CB are both starters in today's game. In that regard, if the Lions have Bentley in the nickel package and if Reiff wins an OT position I'd say the Lions' draft was a slam dunk. Again, playoff teams don't usually get two rookie starters from a single draft.

That's good to hear.

Though, in reply to what you said earlier about the 2009 draft:

Stafford, Pett, and Delmas would be starters on +/- 70% of the teams in this leauge. So I don't think we did that bad...

June 7th, 2012, 8:52 am

DJ-B

Pro Bowl Player

Joined: April 5th, 2007, 5:51 pmPosts: 2578

Re: Lions Select Tahir Whitehead - OLB , Temple (Rd 5)

Most teams have 1 first round pick per year which goes along with the avg starters drafted #.

We had 1/19 & 33 (essentially a 1st) to get those 3 players,... and got 3 starters out of it.

I don't know what happened to my original post from this morning but what I was trying to say is that the various complaints about players drafted in 2012 not being starters in 2012 are out of touch with reality. First round picks generally start as rookies...but on playoff teams that isn't always true. Playoff teams, on average, find less than one rookie starter per draft. This is a fact.

Yes, I agree with Legend that drafted players--especially early picks--are expected to make major contributions within a few years; that's what "developmental" players are--guys who help the team later. These players begin their careers on special teams. That's likely where Whitehead will play this year.

Also, I agree with regularjoe12 in that the slot WR and nickel CB are both starters in today's game. In that regard, if the Lions have Bentley in the nickel package and if Reiff wins an OT position I'd say the Lions' draft was a slam dunk. Again, playoff teams don't usually get two rookie starters from a single draft.

That's good to hear.

Though, in reply to what you said earlier about the 2009 draft:

Stafford, Pett, and Delmas would be starters on +/- 70% of the teams in this leauge. So I don't think we did that bad...

Exactly, 2009 was an excellent draft for the Lions because it yielded four rookie starters. That draft seems even better now that three of those players have developed into upper-echelon at their position. What's important to keep in mind is that the 2009 Lions draft was unusually excellent. We shouldn't expect 2-3 rookie starters every year. The front office did an outstanding job with the 2009 class.

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