It seems like a large part of x-kan training involves standing arm locks; oni kudaki, ura oni kudaki, muso dori, etc... not to mention the wrist locks.

In a lot of the classical katas they work off the punch. These seem like- at best- extremely low percentage moves. I've done a fair amount of boxing and kickboxing and actually couldn't imagine catching someone's jab or cross and applying any of those techniques if they were actually trying to hit me and not leaving their arm out.

I could see a few of them, like oni kudaki or ura oni kudaki working in a clinch if your opponent had absolutely no idea what they were, and if you put them on quick enough.

It seems like a large part of x-kan training involves standing arm locks; oni kudaki, ura oni kudaki, muso dori, etc... not to mention the wrist locks.

In a lot of the classical katas they work off the punch. These seem like- at best- extremely low percentage moves. I've done a fair amount of boxing and kickboxing and actually couldn't imagine catching someone's jab or cross and applying any of those techniques if they were actually trying to hit me and not leaving their arm out.

I could see a few of them, like oni kudaki or ura oni kudaki working in a clinch if your opponent had absolutely no idea what they were, and if you put them on quick enough.

Have you ever managed? even in sparring?

It's not off topic at all. This is a very good starter to explore, so here we go...

To answer your question, yes I've got them to work during sparring against non compliant uke's who are actually in good shape and have fight experience. This alone is one of the reasons why I wanted to make this topic... however...............

Some of them, I cannot see working, ever against a skilled adversary.

Muso Dori is the most notorious of them. I cannot ever see this move working regardless of the set up you use [ hiding it, distracting them via pain, being fast enough, anything.. ]

All of the standing armlocks ( I believe, and except for muso dori because I feel it's useless ) are meant to be temporary distractions to unbalance them momentarily in an attempt to take them ( uke ) down easier i.e: kicking or reaping the leg out in the kukishin ryu version of oni kudaki [ there's a takagi yoshin ryu variant of the move also ].

Is it possible to lock a standing submission on someone? Yes.

Percentage of that working ( by working I mean landing it ) in a real fight outside of a one second hold before transitioning to something else? Very, very low.

Unless a standing lock is literally clamped down [ and even then without full hyper extension or breaking the kuzushi "center line" ] you could muscle out of it if you were strong enough.

The gyaku wrist locks can be rolled out of if you don't step on your opponent's hands or double load the wrist. [ double loading is like twisting twice in one direction, it's something I learned works very well to get compliance in the gyakus you basically do a quick twist then another more violent twist, the joint has nowhere to go because you already loaded it to one side and they ( uke ) relax or try to wriggle away thinking it's done but the second twist clamps it down and hurts severely ] I may not be explaining the principal of double loading very well, I'll make a video in the future.

It's ironic you brought up Oni Kudaki from the clinch. I believe Ganseki and Oni Kudaki can work extremely well from the clinch even if they knew what the moves were by temporarily disengaging with one hand from the full clinch and using it to elbow or uppercut the floating ribs [ butsumetsu for all you traditionalists ] which causes them to move a little to one side. This is all the opening you would need if you were quick in your execution and the movement may unbalance them also.

I have never enjoyed being punched or elbowed in the floating rib, most people don't like it either lol.

I have a small sparring group that usually meets once a week, we wear MMA gloves and play mostly by those rules but keep it pretty light, especially the ground and pound. We all have different backgrounds and used to compete in one form or another but don't anymore. Anyway I bring all this up to lay out the format we train with. For awhile, inspired by a thread on here awhile ago, we started trying to slip in standing arm locks, even wrist locks, just for fun. None of us have ninjutsu backgrounds but as far as I can tell the locks are pretty standard.

It was fun trying and we got a few good laughs out of the attempts, but never could make anything work. Especially wrist locks, if someone was grabbing with intention that wrist just wasn't going anywhere.

On a side note I did surprise a few people by slipping wrist locks on when they were in my guard, er omote gyaku is the ninjutsu name, but since it requires two hands on one I usually got a punch to the face for my efforts.

Anyway, it would be fair to argue that part of our lack of success is due to the fact that we don't regularly train them. But I still tend to see them just being damned difficult to ever pull off.

If you do manage it I'd love to see some video.

Ganseki Nage I can see because it is pretty much just tossing someone with an under hook but for me personally I feel like I would have a much better chance of getting either less gatame or side control going for an o goshi from a similar starting point... but again that could just be the judo talking.

If you throw someone with a ganseki what is your go to control position on the ground? Or do you prefer to stay off the ground all together?

Edit: I typed this on my phone so my apologies if spell check has created some really random sentences.

Some of the peculiarity with X-kan techniques such as standing armlocks, wristlocks, and the particular manner of striking are not simply quirks of the subsumed ryuha, but general characteristics among the hundreds or thousands of known classical Japanese schools.

Explanations I've seen posited cite the influence of armour and weapons in these discrepancies. Soldiers wearing ~60lbs and fighting on uneven terrain couldn't very well keep light on their feet or strike effectively in the way kickboxers might, although even the relatively newer schools (e.g. Tenjin Shin'yo Ryu c. 1830) with striking do not resemble kickboxing much at all either.

It might also be helpful to compare the approaches of classical Japanese schools to present-day Filipino martial arts. Despite some considerable remove, they both have in common an approach that has to account for weapons in close-quarters, and to that end they both employ a variety of standing locks to the joints of the arm. There is also a mutual aversion to striking with the knuckles.

one handed wristlock is difficult to pull off, you have to set it up in such a way that you could've already finished with another move, like a nice throw.
two handed wrist lock leaves you way too vulnerable.
against a weapon it's a different story.

In my limited sparring I've pulled off an omote several times, but my opponents were of limited skill, so I wouldn't think much of it.
In al, very low percentage. It's also very hard to train with increasing resistance. We've tried many formats of resistant exercises and to apply the technique effectively you generate a huge amount of leverage with footwork and hip torque. This easily causes injury, leading to pulling techniques, which is hardly good practice.
once someone knows the move it's very easy to counter as well.

It's ironic you brought up Oni Kudaki from the clinch. I believe Ganseki and Oni Kudaki can work extremely well from the clinch even if they knew what the moves were by temporarily disengaging with one hand from the full clinch and using it to elbow or uppercut the floating ribs [ butsumetsu for all you traditionalists ] which causes them to move a little to one side. This is all the opening you would need if you were quick in your execution and the movement may unbalance them also.

I have never enjoyed being punched or elbowed in the floating rib, most people don't like it either lol.

This is something I've always disliked in schools where there's not enough sparring. You assume you know what's going to happen when you take a certain action. I'm not saying it's impossible to set up later techniques, but the way you write is, "If I do A, the result will be B."

You fail to account for the many scenarios wherein your opponent will not move to one side following your clinched strike.

You've made statements like this a few times, and it's annoying because you should know better, and seem to be trying to argue against this sort of thing in your style.

As a relative beginner, what can Bujinkan offer me that I can't get faster (and better) from Muay Thai and Judo?