Archive for the ‘sean cook’ tag

Dane Dunning was a 1st round pick and was arguably the best producer in 2016 of his draft class. Photo via gatorcountry.com

Editor note: from this post forward i’m going to start tweeting out via the new Nationals Arm Race twitter account. @natsarmrace is the account. I’m going to try to do a better job promoting the blog and its posts since, hey, why not. Feel free to follow me there and retweet if you’re into that to get more people involved in the discussion.

In years past, I’ve adapted a topic stolen from minorleagueball.com’s John Sickels and reviewed all our draft classes statistically. Last years set of posts (2015 draft class, 2014 draft class, 2013 draft class, 2012 draft class and 2011 draft class) turned into a great way to see how everyone was doing, and helped me write rotation reviews later on. So let’s do it again! Using last year’s posts to help make this year’s writing go better, we’re going to do another series of posts on each draft class.

First up; 2016’s class. Here’s a fast review of the 2016 draft class, looking at their 2016 numbers and making some snap judgments.

Web links to use while reading:

Stats are pulled from milb.com and/or fangraphs.com; put the player name into the search bar to get his seasonal stats

The MLB.com Draft Tracker (which I believe is the best draft tracker out there) is the best place to get draft class information.

More obscure stats on players are sometimes found at places like thebaseballcube.com, perfectgame.org, their college websites, twitter accounts for the players, and good old fashioned deep-dive googling.

At the end of each player write-up i’ll put in a color coded trending line for the player: Green for Trending Up, Blue for Trending steady, Red for Trending Down. This is just my knee-jerk opinion of the prospect status of the player system-wide. And yes I realize this is their first pro ball season, short-sample sizes, scouting the stat line, etc etc. So apologies in advance if you think i’m being too harsh passing judgement on a 15 inning sample size. Of course I am; what else are we going to argue about this off-season? :-). I solicit any and all feedback from those who actually saw the games, who think differently or who have inside information that i’ve missed here (like last year when we found out that Perkins was converting to switch hitting).

Without further ado:

Round 1: Carter Kieboom, SS, Walton HS (Georgia). Slashed .244/.323/.452 in 135 at-bats in the GCL, signing four days after being drafted and thus getting as full of a season in as could be expected. 43/12 K/BB in 135 ABs, 4 homers, 1 SB in 36 games. He played SS exclusively and made 9 errors in 31 games in the field. When he did hit the ball, he hit for a decent amount of power (.452 slugging). At age 18 he’s still a year and a half younger than the average age of the GCL, so this is a positive start. Still, I think he’d be hard pressed to make a full season squad in 2017, so I’d expect him to repeat GCL in 2017. Trending Steady.

Round 1: Dane Dunning, RHP (starter) Coll Jr from UFlorida. 3-2, 2.14 ERA in Short-A (ignoring 2 innings at the GCL) with 29/7 K/BB in 33 2/3IP (7 app, 7 starts, 1 CG). 0.98 whip, 2.57 FIP, .263 babip. He gave up 26 hits and one homer in those 33 innings, which is more or less in-line with the numbers he posted for the University of Florida his junior year in a swing-man role. I like Dunning and I like his approach; he comes right at you, doesn’t shy away from contact, and makes you hit his pitch. He had a sub 1.00 whip, which is great from a starter at any level. He doesn’t have eye-popping stuff, but he seems to consistently getting guys out. You can’t ask for a better apprenticeship than Florida and SEC baseball, so he seems like a good candidate to jump from Low-A to High-A next season. Trending Up.

Round 2: Sheldon Neuse, 3B Coll Jr. from Oklahoma. Slashed .230/.305/.341 in 36 games in Short-A. 26/13 K/BB in 126 ABs, 1HR, 2SB. Played mostly 3B (filled in 6 games at Short) and made 5 errors in 222 innings while playing third. Neuse struggled a bit in his first pro season, not hitting anywhere close to the .369/.465/.646 slash line he put up in his stellar junior year. And he ended up missing nearly half the season in two separate stints of inactivity. I’d definitely say this is a disappointing debut season, but luckily for Neuse he’s a big bonus kid so he’ll get plenty of time to work things out. I fully expect to see him starting at 3B for Hagerstown next year; he’s not going to be kept in XST to start the year. Though I will say it was interesting to see that a 17th rounder from this same draft “jumped” Neuse and finished the year starting at 3B for Low-A (more on that later). Trending Steady, barely.

Round 3: Jesus Luzardo, LHP (starter) from S. Douglas HS (FL). No Stats in 2016; he had Tommy John surgery on 3/22/16 and spent the season on the GCL D/L. We’ll see him in the GCL next year. Trending Steady.

Round 4: Nick Banks, OF (Corner) Coll Jr. from Texas A&M: Slashed .277/.310/.320 in 60 games in Short-A. 37/11 K/BB in 231 ABs, Zero homers, 7 SBs. Not a ton of power from Banks in his first pro season; he slugged just 10 points higher than his OBP. Banks is a tough one; I loved this pick back in June, so I’m not going to kill him yet, but clearly we need to see a bit more from a guy who is already relegated to a corner OF position. I suppose its possible he’s still affected by the back surgery he had in late 2015 (that was the excuse for his college junior stats falling off), but that’s nearly a year in the rear-view mirror by now. He’s presumably pushing Rhett Wiseman up a level since they’re both upper round-drafted corner-only outfielders. Trending Down.

Round 5: Daniel Johnson, OF (CF) Coll Jr. from New Mexico State. Slashed .265/.312/.347 in 62 games in Short A. 42/7 K/BB in 245 ABs, 1HR, 13SBs split between playing CF and RF. Wow; just 7 walks in 245 ABs; that’s not good. As with Neuse and Banks, the slash line isn’t that impressive though Johnson managed better power numbers by showing a bit of gap power (9 doubles, 4 triples). He should move up with his draft class to low-A next year, but (again, as with Neuse and Banks) we need to see some improvement and some patience at the plate. Trending Steady.

Round 6: Tres Barrera, C Coll Jr. from Texas. Slashed .244/.337/.366 in 48 starts behind the dish for Short-A. 22/15 K/BB in 164 ABs, 3HR, 0SB. A solid season for the catcher, who led Auburn’s qualifying players in OPS on the year. An interesting decision may eventually await the team; is Barrera good enough for the team to decide to cut bait on Jakson Reetz? Reetz improved his numbers greatly this year (which we’ll discuss in the 2015 draft class review post), and there’s a straightforward promotion path for Reetz, Raudy Read and for Barrera this year … but it is going to get crowded at the top and soon. Trending Up.

Round 7: Jacob “Jake” Noll, 2B Coll Sr. from FGCU. Hit .318 in 18 games in Auburn and earned a promotion on 8/1/16 to Hagerstown. Slashed .275/.332/.401 across 3 levels in 2016. 26/15 K/BB, 5homers, 3SB in 207 ABs. A good season for a senior sign, who should start at 2B again for Hagerstown in 2017 and look to continue his excellent start to his career. Trending Up.

Round 8: A.J. Bogucki, RHP (starter) Coll Jr. from UNC. 0-6, 8.20 ERA in 10 games (6 starts) for Auburn. 17/14 K/BB in 26 1/3 IP. 1.97whip, 4.53 FIP, .378 BABIP. So clearly a 4-point delta between his ERA and FIP highlights a bit of unluckiness in Bogucki’s numbers this year. Still, nearly 2 baserunners an inning is an awful place to reside. He had two especially bad outings that helped inflate his numbers, but overall its hard to see Bogucki having a guaranteed full-season spot next year. I presume he’s in XST and then re-trying short-A in 2017. Trending Down.

Round 9: Joey Harris, C Coll Sr. From Gonzaga. Slashed .301/.414/.329 in 26 games catching roughly every third day in the GCL. 15/9 K/BB, zero HR, 1SB in 73ABs. He had a nice average .. but non-existent power even despite being a 22yr old in a rookie league. Harris was a cut-rate bonus senior sign and the odds of him making it past next season’s draft seem slim. Trending Down.

Round 10: Paul Panaccione, SS/Util Coll Sr. from Grand Canyon U. Slashed just .205/.254/.250 in 50 games serving as a utility backup for Auburn. 20/9 K/BB, zero homers, 1 SB in 176ABs. There doesn’t seem to be any cinderella stories with the senior signs this year; like Harris above, Panaccione seems like he’s a quick release once the 2017 class starts signing. Trending Down.

Round 11: Armond Upshaw, OF (CF) J2 from Pensacola State CC. Slashed .325/.391/.400 in 13 games (40 ABs) for the GCL. He missed a couple of weeks in July then did not play after August 1st. He had a promising start for sure and, assuming there’s not a serious, long-term injury he should make sense to perhaps compete for a spot at Low-A Hagerstown in 2017. It’s too small sample size to really pass too much judgement, so we’ll go with Trending Steady.

Round 12: Hayden Howard, LHP (reliever) Coll Jr. from Texas Tech. 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA in 11 games for Short-A. 12/9 K/BB in 21 1/3 innings, 1.73 whip, 4.03FIP, .365 babip. Not the best start from Howard, who was one of the last drafted players to sign and start his career. He mostly pitched 2-3 inning relief stints but didn’t show much in the way of swing-and-miss stuff. His BABIP shows he was a bit unlucky, and at the risk of over-reacting to 21 innings, I’d say he’s already on a short leash. He’ll be competing for a bullpen spot in Hagerstown next year. Trending Down.

Round 13: Conner Simonetti, 1B Coll Jr. from Kent State. Slashed .280/.333/.446 for the GCL Nats. 54/13 K/BB ratio, 6 homers, 0 ABs playing 1B for the rookie league squad. A college junior should have at least made the Short-A team; i’m guessing Simonetti was pushed to the GCL thanks to a numbers game. 54 strikeouts in 42 games played against guys who were 1-2 years younger is the biggest concern i’d have here; I would like to have seen more contact. Just based on where he played in 2017, i’m going to say Trending Down.

Round 14: Kyle Simonds, RHP (reliever) Coll Sr. from Texas A&M: 0-3 with a 2.51 ERA in 13 games (3 starts) for Auburn. 27/8 K/BB in 32 1/3 innings. 1.08 whip, 3.43 fip, .272 BABIP. A nice little season for the senior sign Simonds, who got a few “starts” (which I put in quotes because clearly they were doing tandem starts) but mostly was a 2-3inning middle reliever. Good K/BB ratio, good overall numbers, kept baserunners to a minimum. I think he’s a shoe-in for middle relief in Hagerstown next year. Trending Up.

Round 15: Ryan Williamson, LHP (starter) Coll Jr. from NC State: No Stats in 2016; he had Tommy John surgery on 6/22/16 with Dr. Andrews and spent the season on the GCL D/L. We’ll see him in XST next year to start and then likely with Auburn in 2017. If he recovers, this could be another nice pick for the Nats; he had promising numbers as a weekend starter for NC State this year (7-2, 2.69 ERA in 13 starts) Trending Steady.

Round 16: Phil Morse, RHP (reliever) Coll Sr. from Shenandoah U (by way of McLean HS): 1-0, 7.79 ERA in 19 games as a late-innings reliever for Auburn. 23/13 K/BB ratio in 21 innings, 2.24 whip, 3.37 fip, .508 babip. So, at first glance his ERA and WHIP look awful. But look at his BABIP: above .500! That’s 200 points or more above where it should be, and his FIP indicates it. So, hopefully the Nats officials also see this vast discrepancy and give him another shot. It looks like he was used as an 8th/9th inning guy because of stuff, so in short outings one string of hits can really inflate your stats. I think he gets another look in the Hagerstown bullpen next year. Trending Steady.

Round 17: Tyler Beckwith, MIF Coll Sr. from URichmond; slashed .253/.330/.331 across 45 games across two levels. 44/16 K/BB ratio, 1HR, 5SB in 166 ABs. Beckwith spent most of the season in the GCL despite being a college senior sign, then interestingly was promoted to Hagerstown to finish out the season. He split time evenly between 2B, SS (his drafted position) and 3B. In the GCL, his OBP was higher than his slugging, indicating very little power potential here. He will compete for a full season job but already seems behind higher-drafted players from 2016 (Neuse, Noll) plus some aging IFAs from the D.R., plus some hangers on from prior drafts. He could be a release candidate soon after the 2017 class is drafted. Trending Down.

Round 18: Ben Braymer, LHP (Starter) Coll Jr. from Auburn: 0-2 with a 4.12 ERA in 8 games (2 starts). 24/13 K/BB in 19 2/3rds innings, 1.32whip, 3.02 fip, .289 babip. Braymer was used as a notional “starter” despite not getting the official starts; he was kept on a starter’s regime for the GCL but was shut down in early August (unsure if injury or just innings limits). He was a Junior out of Auburn, where he was a highly regarded Juco transfer and was used as a swingman. I’d like to see how he’d fare against like-aged players; more than a K/inning but against rookie league guys. I’m hoping he competes for at least the Hagerstown rotation next year. Trending Steady.

Round 19: Jarrett Gonzales, C from Madison HS in San Antonio; did not sign, apparently honored his college commitment. At the time of the draft, I had him committed to Grayson Junior College in Denison, North Texas. However, perfectgame.org now has him committed to Dallas Baptist University. He is cousins w/ Garrett (our 32nd round pick, see below) and nephew of Nats scout Jimmy Gonzalez. Initially I thought this might have been a “favor pick,” but you don’t generally blow 19th round picks (35th round? yes). The fact that he’s going to a powerhouse baseball program lends a bit more credence to his drafting in this spot.

Round 20: Jake Barnett, LHP (starter) Coll Jr from Lewis-Clark State (Idaho). 0-0, 1.80 ERA in 2 games and just 5IP for the GCL. Barnett signed on 6/20, reported to Florida on 6/24, pitched on 6/25 and then again on 7/1 … and then didn’t pitch again. There’s no D/L assignment. I guess we have to say he’s Trending Steady until we find out his fate next spring.

Round 21: Jacob Howell RHP (reliever) Coll Jr. from Delta State (Miss.). Posted a 2-1 record with a 3.49 ERA across 28.1 innings and three levels. Looking just at his time in Hagerstown; 4.57 ERA, 15/7 K/BB in 21 2/3 innings. 1.25 WHIP, 3.59 FIP, .279 Babip. Howell quickly moved from the GCL through Auburn to live in Hagerstown for most of the year, becoming the first 2016 draftee to matriculate to full-season ball. Not bad for a 21st rounder from a small school. His FIP indicates that his numbers are better, and his season was cut short a month with injury. I’d suspect he’ll start again in Hagerstown in 2017 (unless his injury was serious) and move on up from there. Good first pro season. Trending Up.

Round 22: Sterling Sharp, RHP (starter) Coll Jr. Drury (Mo.). Posted a 3-0 record with a 3.24 ERA in 11 games (7 “starts”) in the GCL before getting an end-of-season promotion to Auburn. 35/6 K/BB in 41 2/3 innings in GCL. 1.27whip, 2.85 fip, .354 babip. Nice looking numbers, much better than his college numbers this year, but done against younger competition even given the fact that he went to a smaller school. His one Auburn start was solid and efficient; 5 innings, 2 runs on 69 pitches. I like what I see, but will repeat the typical age-related caveat for all college kids in the GCL. We’ll know more when he hits a Short-A or Full-season league. Trending Up.

Round 23: Michael Rishwain, RHP (reliever) Col Sr. Westmont (Calif.); was 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA in 13 relief appearances in the GCL. 14/5 K/BB in 17 1/3 innings. 1.90 whip, 2.58fip, .400 babip. His usage was odd; he only pitched about every 5th day despite not being a “starter” in the GCL, and had several “gaps” of more than a week between appearances. He also gave up a gazillion hits; 28 in his 17 innings to go along with a few walks, hence the inflated WHIP. If they were holding him back to manage his innings that is one thing; if he was only getting brief looks because every time he got on the mound 2 guys got on base, then he may not be long for the season. I see him as a long-shot to make a full-season bullpen and he may be a mid-season 2017 release. Trending Down.

Round 24: Joseph Baltrip RHP (reliever) J2 from Wharton County (Texas) JC; went 2-1 with a 1.38 ERA in 16 relief appearances in the GCL. 17/23 K/BB in 26IP. 1.46whip, 5.40 fip, .194 BABIP. Well, I loved the ERA until I saw the K/BB ratio; he walked 23 guys in 26 innings. Look at the delta between his ERA and FIP. Despite being a J2 guy, he was 21 at the point of drafting so he’s the same age as a typical College Junior. Clearly he’s got some control issues to work on. As with previous college RHP relievers who were in the GCL all year, results need to be shown in like-age leagues and soon. Trending Down.

Round 25: Branden Boggetto, SS Col Sr. Southeast Missouri State. Slashed .280/.328/.411 in 32 games in the GCL. 13/6 K/BB ratio, 3 homers, 2 SBs in 107 ABs. Drafted as a SS, he played mostly 2B in the GCL this season. Solid enough numbers for Boggetto, but (and I feel like a broken record) he’s 22. I’m guessing he has a shot at a utility position for a team next season, but the roster’s crowded. Trending Down.

Round 26: Jack Sundberg OF (corner) Col Sr. Connecticut. Slashed .256/.346/.340 while earning two promotions and ending the season in Hagerstown. 33/22 K/BB ratio, 1 homer, 12SB in his three stops. You cannot complain about a 26th rounder who earned two promotions, even if the jump from Short-A to Low-A seemed odd based on his stat line in Auburn. He played mostly LF, where you hope for a bit more power. He did feature at CF a bit, so perhaps it was a positional thing. A great first pro season. Trending Up.

Round 27: Jeremy McDonald, LHP (starter/reliever) Col Sr. California Baptist. Went 2-1 with a 3.42 ERA in 11 appearances in the GCL. 27/5 K/BB ratio, 1.22 whip, 1.85 fip, .338 BABIP. Yes he’s old for the level (he turned 23 just after the season ended), but clearly he’s got some command. Nearly a 6-1 K-BB ratio is great. I’m slightly surprised he didn’t get bumped up to one of the A-ball levels, but (like a few before him) he seemed to be on a starters schedule all season. He generally went every 5th or 6th day even though he was only throwing 2-3 innings at a time. I can see him competing for rotations in Low- or Short-A next year. Trending Up.

Round 28: Jonathan “Jonny” Reid, LHP (starter/reliever) Col Jr. Azusa Pacific (Calif.). Went 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA across two levels, ending the year in Auburn. 24/7 K/BB, 0.94 whip, 4.41 fip (in Auburn), .281 babip (in Auburn). Reid quickly proved to be unhittable in the GCL (8 hits in 15 2/3 innings) and got jumped to Auburn after a month. There he pitched on a starter’s rotation, going every 5th day or so for 2-3 inning stints and finished with a 3.10 ERA in 7 outings. He should compete nicely for a full-season rotation job or at least have a look at being a longer-man out of the pen. Trending Up.

Round 29: Sam Held RHP (starter/reliever) Col Sr. Nevada. Went 1-2 with a 1.86 ERA across three levels, ending the year in Hagerstown. 22/8 K/BB ratio, 1.14whip combined for the year. Like a couple guys before him. Held quickly showed he was too good for the GCL and got jumped to Auburn after three weeks. There, he held his own for a month of tandem starter appearances before finishing the last few weeks in Hagerstown. He more than held his own once he got to full-season ball and should at least start there in 2017. Trending Up.

Round 30: Tristan Clarke, OF J2 Eastern Oklahoma State JC. Did not sign, honored his commitment out of JuCo to attend the University of New Orleans.

Round 31: C.J. Picerni, C Col Sr. New York. Had just 8 ABs for the GCL, and it took 5 weeks for him to even get an appearance. No idea what to think here; was he hurt? Given his draft round and his lack of playing time, you can only assume he’s a short-timer until we get more information. Trending Down.

Round 32: Garrett Gonzales, 3B HS San Antonio HS in Texas. Did not sign, honored his college commitment to Incarnate Word. As noted above, he is cousins w/ Jarrett (our 19th round pick). This seems like a “favor pick” for sure; he’s reportedly the son of a Nats area scout.

Round 33: Ryan Wetzel SS Heritage Christian Academy in Overland Park, Kansas. Did not sign, honored his college commitment to Pitt State. The son of a special assistant to the GM for the Nationals, so definitely another “favor pick.”

Round 34: Morgan Cooper, RHP (starter) Col Jr. Texas. Did not sign, decided to return for his senior year (technically his redshirt junior year) at Texas. He had Tommy John surgery, which caused him to miss the whole 2015 season. In 2016 he was a mid-week starter for Texas, so likely he wanted to return to Texas to improve his draft standing for 2017. Makes sense. If he can produce as a weekend starter in the Big12 two years removed from surgery he’ll be looking at a decent bonus next year.

Round 35: Tristan Bayless LHP (starter) Hutto (Texas) HS. Did not sign, honoring his commitment to McLennan Community College. Bayless had a nice season on the mound for his prep team but was not a heavily scouted or recruited player apparently. PerfectGame had very little on him and only some deep googling returned his Juco commitment.

Round 36: Jordan McFarland OF Waterloo (Ill.) HS. Did not sign, honoring his commitment to Arkansas. McFarland was a big-time player; a 2nd-team PerfectGame All American and this may have been the Nats planting a seed for a pick three years from now.

Round 37; Cory Voss C J2 McLennan (Texas) CC. Did not sign, honoring his planned transfer to U of Arizona for 2017. Voss played his freshman year at New Mexico, went JuCo sophomore year and then was playing in the Cape this past summer. He joins a very good recruiting class for Arizona and will be back in next year’s draft.

Round 38: Noah Murdock RHP (starter) Colonial Heights (Va.) HS. Did not sign, will honor his commitment to UVA. Murdock was one of the players I was tracking all spring and once he passed out of the top 10 rounds it was clear he’d go to school. He will help augment a UVA rotation that lost its ace and may be struggling for starters in 2017.

Round 39: Matt Mervis 1B Georgetown Prep HS, North Bethesda, Md. Did not sign, will honor his commitment to Duke. Another local kid drafted; Mervis was no favor pick. He was highly ranked (the #1 prep player in Maryland according to one source Prep Baseball) but clearly going to Duke is a better alternative than a minimum bonus at this spot.

Round 40: Sean Cook RHP (starter) Whitman HS, Bethesda, Md. Did not sign, will attend Maryland and “attempt to walk-on.” Definitely seems like a “favor” draft pick to someone, in that Cook was not on anyone’s radar, does not have a perfectgame profile and is not even a guarantee to make Maryland’s team. Perhaps further evidence that the MLB draft is still 8-10 rounds too long.

So far, the key names out of this draft have done decently. I’m worried about Banks and (to a lesser extent) Neuse. Its great to see 20th+ round guys like Reid and (especially) Held produce and earn promotions; that’s a feather in the cap of the scouting department for those finds. Its just a half a season of course, but plenty of guys are on course or impressing out of this class.

On Thursday 6/30/16, the big domino in our 2016 draft class Dane Dunningfinally signed, which brought the Nats draft dollar shell game into more acute focus.

For those unfamiliar, here’s how the MLB draft now works with the new CBA-driven draft slotting and bonus system: Every pick in the first 10 rounds is assigned a slot figure (here’s the 2016 slot figures directly pick by pick). But you don’t have to spend all those dollars on each of those individual picks; if you “save” $100 by signing your (say) 4th rounder for $100 less than the slot value, that gives you $100 “extra” dollars to spend on someone else. Any pick made above the 10th round can be paid up to $100,000 without having to count against the total bonus figure, which is important because if you give a 11th rounder $500k, that’s $400k that has to be counted against your top 10 budget.

So, the more important figure to keep in mind is this: $7,635,500. That’s the sum of all the slot values of the 11 picks in the first 10 rounds that the Nats had this year. An even more important figure is this: $8,017,275: that is precisely 5% above the $7.6M number, which is the “buffer” that MLB gives teams so as to go above their total slot values (along with a dollar-for-dollar tax penalty) without being penalized with lost future draft picks.

So, that being said, upon the Dunning signing, the Nats (by my calculations) had spent exactly $8,095,000 in bonus money, or $22,275 less than their upper end figure before getting penalized.

Here’s a list of those signees with dollar figures:

Round

Overall

Name/Position

Bonus Amt

Slot Value

Savings off of Slot?

1-S

28

Carter Kieboom

2000000

2065900

65900

1-S

29

Dane Dunning

2000000

2034600

34600

2

58

Sheldon Neuse

900000

1107000

207000

3

94

Jesus Nuzardo

1400000

635800

-764200

4

124

Nick Banks

500000

473300

-26700

5

154

Daniel Johnson

325000

354300

29300

6

184

Tres Barrera

210000

265400

55400

7

214

Jacob Noll

190000

198900

8900

8

244

A.J. Bogucki

150000

177700

27700

9

274

Joey Harris

10000

166000

156000

10

304

Paul Panaccione

10000

156600

146600

11

334

Armand Upshaw

400000

100000

-300000

The team went way over slot to sign third rounder Jesus Nuzardo, paying him the equivalent of mid 2nd round money to buy him out of his Miami commitment and get him into the fold. That seems like good value; he was projecting as a 1st rounder out of HS earlier in the year before hurting his arm. The team went slightly over budget to get Nick Banks, a nominal amount in the end for a US collegiate National team guy who also projected as a first rounder at the beginning of the year. Lastly they dropped $400k ($300k over slot) on their 11th rounder Armand Upshaw, a move that has been somewhat questioned based on his Juco Stats (he did have a 4-year commitment to Missouri that had to be bought out). These two big over-slot deals means club basically ended up with an extra 2nd rounder and an extra 5th rounder. That’s pretty good value.

The team went under slot (as has now become the custom) with a number of its round 6-10 guys to save the money needed for these overslot deals: they got their 9th and 10th rounders for just $10k each (Joey Harris and Paul Panaccione); with all due respect to these two guys, don’t expect much out of them beyond this year. Surprisingly to me, they got 2nd rounder Sheldon Neuse to sign for more than $200k underslot; this was a guy who was named the Big 12 player of the year this year, was Louisville Slugger 2nd team all-american, was a semifinalist for the Golden Spikes award and was just give the 2016 “Brooks Wallace” award for best college shortstop. Basically, he had a great year this year and I like this pick.

The side effect of their spending thus far is this: there probably are no more deals to be made. Here’s a list of the rest of the draft class ( from round 12 to 40) with a quick yes/no flag as to whether they’re signed yet:

Round

Overall

Name/Position

Position

Col/HS

College or Cmtm

Signed?

12

364

Hayden Howard

LHP

Col Sr.

Texas Tech

Yes

13

394

Conner Simonetti

1B

Col Jr.

Kent State

Yes

14

424

Kyle Simonds

RHP

Col Sr.

Texas A&M

Yes

15

454

Ryan Williamson

LHP

Col Jr.

North Carolina State

Yes

16

484

Phil Morse

RHP

Col Sr.

Shenandoah (Va.)

Yes

17

514

Tyler Beckwith

SS

Col Sr.

Richmond

Yes

18

544

Ben Braymer

LHP

Col Jr.

Auburn

Yes

19

574

Jarrett Gonzales

C

HS

Grayson Junior College

20

604

Jake Barnett

LHP

Col Jr.

Lewis-Clark State (Idaho)

Yes

21

634

Jacob Howell

RHP

Col Jr.

Delta State (Miss.)

Yes

22

664

Sterling Sharp

RHP

Col Jr.

Drury (Mo.)

Yes

23

694

Michael Rishwain

RHP

Col Sr.

Westmont (Calif.)

Yes

24

724

Joseph Baltrip

RHP

J2

Wharton County (Texas) JC

Yes

25

754

Branden Boggetto

SS

Col Sr.

Southeast Missouri State

Yes

26

784

Jack Sundberg

OF

Col Sr.

Connecticut

Yes

27

814

Jeremy McDonald

LHP

Col Sr.

California Baptist

Yes

28

844

Jonny Reid

LHP

Col Jr.

Azusa Pacific (Calif.)

Yes

29

874

Sam Held

RHP

Col Sr.

Nevada

Yes

30

904

Tristan Clarke

OF

J2

Eastern Oklahoma State JC

31

934

C.J. Picerni

C

Col Sr.

New York

Yes

32

964

Garrett Gonzales

3B

HS

Incarnate Word

33

994

Ryan Wetzel

SS

HS

Pitt State

34

1024

Morgan Cooper

RHP

Col Jr.

Texas

35

1054

Tristan Bayless

LHP

HS

??

36

1084

Jordan McFarland

OF

HS

Arkansas

37

1114

Cory Voss

C

J2

McLennan (Texas) CC

38

1144

Noah Murdock

RHP

HS

UVA

39

1174

Matt Mervis

1B

HS

Duke

40

1204

Sean Cook

RHP

HS

Maryland walk-on?

So who is left unsigned at this point? It is a fair assumption that any HS player drafted in the 12-40 range is not going to sign at this point; there’s just no additional dollars to incentivize them and they’ve all got college commitments. So lets talk about the college players left on a case by case basis:

(Note; in-between the original writing of this post and the publication, both 12th rounder Hayden Howard and 15th rounder Ryan Williamson signed; the signing of Howard came as somewhat of a surprise to me because he still had some eligibility. Apologies if I forgot to update a spreadsheet or table somewhere).

30th rounder Tristan Clarke: twitter handle is https://twitter.com/TClarke_9 but its protected, so no hints as to his intentions. He’s at a Juco now, but has committed to attend “UNO” which I can only assume is the University of Nebraska-Omaha and not the University of New Orleans. It does not seem like he’s going to sign.

34th rounder Morgan Cooper: twitter handle is https://twitter.com/mojaycoop: he missed all of 2015 with TJ, was Texas’ mid-week starter in 2016 and put up mediocre numbers. He could end up with two more years of eligibility if I read his history correctly, so he makes sense to return to Texas, get into the weekend rotation and improve his draft stock.

37th rounder Cory Voss: no idea what his twitter handle is, nor if he’s signed with a 4-year program out of his current Juco. Tough one to find information on.

Of the HS draft picks:

19th rounder Jarrett Gonzales: I cannot find his twitter, nor much information; he’s apparently committed to Grayson Junior College, which would make him draft eligible again next year, so why not roll the dice and play a year of Juco to increase value?

32nd rounder Garrett Gonzales, the cousin of Jarrett and they’re both related to a Nats scout in the area. Committed to Incarnate Ward. Twitter handle https://twitter.com/gmoneyGarrett7 : this seems like a “favor draft pick” to an area scout who may not have gotten another guy drafted.

35th rounder Tristan Bayless, LHP out of a Texas HS. Can’t find twitter, can’t find his commitment, not in PerfectGame.org. An enigma.

36th rounder Jordan McFarland, an OF out of an Illinois HS committed to Arkansas. No Twitter, little hope of signing.

38-40th rounders: the Nats take three local kids Noah Murdock, Matt Mervis and Sean Cook. Murdock was the Virginia 3-A East Regional player of the year from Colonial Heights HS south of Richmond and is a UVA commit and has already announced he’s going to school. Mervis is from Georgetown Prep, was 2nd team all-Met in 2015 and in 2016 and is committed to Duke; he was one of the marquee Maryland Prep players in this class. So both of these were “good” picks. Sean Cook was a 2nd-team All-Met ins 2016 but doesn’t have a rich pedigree in the scouting circles (he has no Perfect Game profile), and has been quoted as wanting to “walk on” at Maryland. No offense to the kid, but this sounds like a “favor” draft pick as well to someone connected with the team. We’ll have more detail on these local-connected drafted kids after the 7/15/16 signing deadline, summarizing everyone with local connections who was drafted.

Summary: I’ll be shocked if any of the remaining un-signed guys signs, so it looks like the class is complete.

Draft Class Stats (SpringfieldFan’s Draft Tracker has all of this data plus its own summarized data too)

41 players drafted

30 signed, 11 unsigned

Breakdown of draftees: 10 high schoolers, 4 Juco players, 12 college seniors and 15 college juniors (counting Howard as a “college junior”)

Breakdown by State: 9 of the 41 drafted kids are from Texas. Another 3 from Oklahoma; this continues a trend we’ve seen where the Nats really, really focus on this SW area of the country. Other states with multiple players picked: Florida (4), California (3), and Virginia (3).

If you have any information on guys that I don’t please chime in with a comment.

One additional comment; as we’ve now seen, the Nats have been highly active in the 7/2 international market, blowing well past their allotted IFA bonus money to sign. According to Baseball America’s rankings, the Nats signed the #3 prospect in the IFA market this year in Dominican SS Luis Garcia, the #14 player in Dominican SS Yasel Antuna, the #30 player in Venezuelan OF Ricardo Mendez, and another Venezuelan C named Israel Pineda (you know, since they’ve had such great luck so far with Catchers from Venezuela). I don’t know anything about these players and neither does anyone else besides a handful of hard-core scouting pundits who actually travel to these countries to eyeball these players. Still, they’re mostly 16 yr olds; HS sophomores. It could be money down a rat hole, or they could strike gold. We won’t know for several years in any case. Its one of the reasons I stopped tracking the Dominican Summer League (and one of the reasons Luke Erickson stopped hyper-tracking the daily machinations of both the DSL and the GCL); call me when they get to the states in a couple of years and we’ll see how they’re doing.