Ok everyone. We got one week in the books and a little bit better look at what’s around the corner for Week 2. Some of my picks hit, some of them didn’t. Most disappointing of all, my three team pick lost as well as my lock. Let’s pray to the betting gods we both have a better week.

Sunday Games

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Tampa Bay @ New York Giants (-7) o/u 44

Tampa Bay seemed to have made the right moves in the off-season with the addition of Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin. It appears a full training camp for 3rd year QB Josh Freeman reduced his interception but not his TD’s. Although Freeman looked slightly better than last year in Week 1 against Carolina he needs more production if this team is to compete in what could be the toughest division in the NFC. The Giants looked equally ineffective in Week 1 in a 7 point loss to the Cowboys at home. The Cowboys presented a much tougher defensive challenge for Eli Manning and friends than I think Tampa Bay will this week. Eli is going to have another big season. With a number like seven to cover, I like the Giants GIVING seven.

Line: New York Giants -7

Total: Under 44

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Arizona @ New England (-13.5) o/u 48.5

With the exception of the reduced production of Wes Welker, New England looked exactly like the team we all expected with their Week 1 performance. Taking a 21-3 lead into halftime the outcome was exactly what we all expected. With so many options in the passing game, it might be hard deciding who to start in fantasy week to week but one thing that’s a guarantee is that no matter who’s on during Sunday’s game, New England WILL score points. That does not bode well for an Arizona team that lost starting QB John Skelton in Week 1 and now resorts BACK to their castoff free agents signing in Kevin Kolb. Although Kolb threw a TD in a 4 point win over the Seahawks, the Patriots and their upgraded D will be a different story. The Patriots are GIVING 13.5 and that’s the perfect number as I see them winning by at least 14.

Line: New England -13.5

Total: Over 48.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Minnesota @ Indianapolis (+1.5) o/u 44.5

I hate this game. I’m sorry to fans of either team, but both of these team are waaaaaay too unpredictable. I’ll save everyone the time to read a drawn out explanation. This is my AVOID game this week. Stay away.

Line: Indianapolis +1.5

Total: Under 44.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) New Orleans @ Carolina (+2.5) o/u 51

Well, as I said last Week New Orleans was not built on defense and that was on full display in a Week 1 MONSTER opening game by rookie phenom Robert Griffin III. Carolina on the other hand did not fare so well against the mediocre Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I see Carolina putting up more points than they did last week against the Saints weak D but I also see the Saints rebounding in a big way in Week 2 with a major offense output. I’ll take the Saints to cover 2.5 points and the over.

Line: New Orleans -2.5

Total: Over 51

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Kansas City @ Buffalo (-3) o/u 45

Boy was I wrong about the Bills in Week 1. My God it was an ugly loss for Bills and if it wasn’t for the garbage time points against the Jets scrubs on D this game would have looked much uglier. Kansas City doesn’t present the same defensive challenge as the Jets and Rex Ryan so I expect a better performance in Week 2 from the Bills and especially from veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Kansas on the other hand got blown out by the Falcons. The Bills home crowd will be energized the home crowd and I like them in this potential offensive game.

Line: Buffalo -3

Total: Over 45

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Baltimore @ Philadelphia (-2) o/u 46.5

This one looks little weird to me. Baltimore looked great last week and the Eagles barely squeaked out a win at the lowly Cleveland Browns. I really like the look of this bet. Flacco seems to be progressing, Ray Rice is a beast as always and Baltimore’s D looks great. Although Philly will be at home and benefiting from the home crowd, something tells me Baltimore is just much too much for the Eagles this week. I like the Ravens a lot in this game.

Line: Baltimore +2.5

Total: Under 46.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Oakland at Miami (-2.5) o/u 39.5

Miami performed as expected in week 1. It’s going to be some time and a wide receiver or two until Miami is a decent team and I don’t see much changing throughout this entire 2012 season. Oakland also looked pretty poor in Week 2 but has many more weapons on offense and will perform better in Week 2. I think this will be a low scoring affair with a bunch of field goals but I certainly like the Raiders to be strong enough to cover a field goal. I like the under in this game and the Raiders to cover

Line: Oakland -2.5

Total: Under 39.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Cleveland at Cincinnati (-6.5) o/u 38.5

Cleveland’s offense is in a bad spot already but it’s hard to say you didn’t see it coming. Cincinnati had just as miserable a performance against a clearly more powerful Baltimore Ravens. Many people were high on Cincy coming into the season but everyone tends to overlook their leading rusher is gone and they still are relying almost solely on two second year players to carry the team. Although both were Pro Bowl players and have bright futures, their will be down weeks every now and then and last week was one of those weeks. Cleveland is going to struggle all season and although Cincy took a punch in the face from the Ravens, I see a role reversal in this game as Cincy rolls to a Week 2 beating over the Browns.

Line: Cincinnati -6.5

Total: Under 38.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Houston @ Jacksonville (+7) o/u 41.5

Houston’s offense came out of the gates in Week 1 and performed just like everyone expected. Long drives punctuated by rushing TD’s. Although Matt Schaub’s offensive numbers have declined the team’s offense as a whole has gone up and its due to the reliance on the running game. Miami found out in a bad way what a healthy and motivated Arian Foster does and I see Jacksonville being the second team to catch an offensive beating in Week 2. Jacksonville did look better in their loss over the Vikings than at almost any time last season but I just don’t see them being able to stand up to the Texans. I like the Texans to cover a touchdown but I really like the over in this game. I think the Texans post at least 28 on their own and I think the Jags are potent enough to cover the remaining 14 points.

Line: Houston -7

Total: Over 41.5

Sun – (4:00 pm ET) Dallas at Seattle (+3) o/u 42

Dallas performed much better in their first game than I thought they would. The ever present distraction of Dez Bryant still persists, but it looks like Miles Austin is healthier than most thought. Romo looked good and DeMarco Murray seems to be the next breakout back being able to both catch and run the ball. Seattle on the flip side came out mediocre as I thought. Russell Wilson will be the starter for the year barring injuries but there will be struggles early. Although the game is in the overpoweringly loud home of the Seahawks, I think a three point line is too little. I think Dallas covers AT LEAST a touchdown but the total worries me as I can see the Seahawks having trouble mustering points against a Dallas D that held the Super Bowl Champs to 17 points.

Line: Dallas -3

Total: Under 42

Sun – (4:00 pm ET) Washington at St. Louis (+3) o/u 45

I’m the first to admit when I’m wrong. I had the Lions blowing out the Rams in Week 1 but the St. Louis Rams more than held their own against an extremely high powered offensive machine in the Detroit Lions. Sam Bradford now has some weapons to help him and I think they will put up some more points this season than last but I’m not sure they are ready for the explosiveness Robert Griffin III brings to the table. This guy is for real and he proved it last week against the Saints in New Orleans. I think this game will be high scoring and pretty much as close as the Vegas line but I do like the Redskins to cover and the game to go over.

Line: Washington -3

Total: Over 45

Sun – (4:25 pm ET) New York Jets @ Pittsburgh (-5) o/u 41

The Jets also performed MUCH better than I gave them credit for in a Week 1 romp over the overmatched Buffalo Bills. They performed well on both offense and defense but I think the most telling sign of the game was the performance of Sanchez. If this dirty man can keep up half this pace for the season this team will be dangerous. I don’t count on this happening, but hey, who knows. Pittsburgh opened in the Mile High City and the Broncos were not in a friendly or welcoming mood as Payton Manning displayed his pre injury dominance in handling the Steelers top rated D with 3 straight 80 yard drives. Sanchez won’t perform anywhere near as well and I expect The Steelers home crowd to boost the energy even further. I like the Steelers to cover 5 and the over in this game.

Line: Pittsburgh -5

Total: Over 41

Sun – (4:25 pm ET) Tennessee @ San Diego (-6) o/u 43

Sand Diego handled the Raiders in Oakland on that atrocious field, but they did not do as well as I had expected. There Is a better chance of offense this week against Tennessee who was overmatched in Week 1 against the New England Patriots. I like Jake Locker a lot but as I said last week, I think it will take some time for him to develop the type of passing game and consistency necessary to compete in the NFL. I like Tennessee a little bit more than some people, especially in this game against the Chargers who are undeniably the slowest starting team in the last 20 years. They always seem to pull it out but they laid some eggs to start the season and I can see this team hurting to cover six points.

Line: Tennessee (+6)

Total: Over 43

Sunday Night Football

Sun – (8:25 pm ET) Detroit @ San Francisco (-6.5) o/u 45

San Francisco went in to Green Bay on the NFL’s opening week and handled their business. This team looks a lot like the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. Unbelievable defense with a mediocre QB that can take his team a long way by limiting turnovers and simply managing his team to a few touchdowns. They beat Green Bay and put a significant amount of points. I like this team a lot. But, Green Bay still put up some points. Detroit can score some points as well. I see this game being a lot lower scoring than 45 points but I like the Lions to keep it real close and possibly go into San Francisco and steal a win. Lions to cover 6.5 in a low scoring affair.

Line: Lions +6.5

Total: Under 45

Monday Night Football

Mon – (10:15pm ET) Denver @ Atlanta (-3) o/u 51

This game is going to be high scoring. Both teams put on a serious offensive display in Week 1 and I like some fireworks again in Week 2. The over on this game is all but guaranteed and Manning and Ryan will both score some points for their teams. My biggest issue with this is I can’t tell either way who wins this game and I don’t like Atlanta to cover -3. This is a tricky game and I wouldn’t put money on the line but I like the over.

If your a football fan, you have to watch this game. The Giants and Cowboys have to play each other twice still and Dallas has just a one game lead for first place in the NFC East. New York lost to the Packers last week and the Cowboys had a HUGE opportunity to go up by two games against the Arizona Cardinals but they blew it and lost in overtime. The Giants have had a lot of trouble stopping opposing running backs over the past month to month and a half as teams have really forced the running game in an effort to slow the elite pass rush of New York. Last week the Cowboys made a concerted effort to get Felix Jones more involved and this limited the number of carries that DeMarco Murray saw. This strategy led to a disappointing performance for both backs and by the end of the game, it was back to the DeMarco Murray show but it was just too late. On the flip-side the Giants have one of the best wide receiver tandems in the NFL and fantasy-owners can go ahead and expect the top 10 performances of both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz to continue against a very average Cowboys secondary that is currently ranked 14th in the league. The bottom line for fantasy owners is that all the offensive players that you have been starting have to be started again. Some crazy things happen when two NFC East teams face off and when the playoff implications are THIS high, I think we can expect more of a shoot-out than a defensive struggle over field position. Miles Austin should be active in this game assuming he finds a way to practice without a setback but I think the Cowboys will continue to use Laurent Robinson in some of the 2 wide receiver sets. I like the Cowboys to squeak out a win here after such a disappointing game last week with a heavy dose of DeMarco Murray in the running game to keep Eli Manning and his slew of receivers on the sideline.

Texans at Bengals

I hope you like defense because your going to see it in this game. Despite adding Jake Delhomme and Jeff Garcia to the roster, Houston will continue to start T.J. Yates at QB and rely on him limiting mistakes and taking what the Bengals defense give him. This game will be about field position and field goals and as a result, you have to downgrade all your fantasy options out of this game. Arian Foster and A.J. Green remain must-starts due to their track record of performing admirably regardless of match up and to a lesser extent, Cedric Benson also retains enough value to be a decent starter this week. A.J. Green has been incredibly consistent and has been able to beat every secondary deep with one exception, The 49ers back in week 3. Houston’s defense has been great this season and is one of the best that Green will have to play this season but after remaining a top 10 receiver against the Steelers twice and the Browns, who are surprisingly the best pass defense in the NFL so far this season, I am not going to bench him now. Andy Dalton however is not likely to do much more than find Green on one big play so I would definitely look elsewhere as opposed to starting Dalton. Anyone not mentioned needs to be left on your bench unless they are a kicker and even the guys that are mentioned as starters anyways are easily capable of being a disappointment so tread carefully and hope your studs come out of this game with a decent number of points. I like the Bengals to win this CLOSE game because they are mildly able to pass the ball and eventually Benson will wear out this Texans defense.

Bears at Broncos

Speaking of defensive match-ups… The offense-less Bears are facing off against the story of the past month named Tim Tebow. Tebow has just been winning games in whatever way has been available to him. This game could easily be 6-3 going into the 4th quarter (or Tebow-time) and yet by the time it is all said and done, Tebow should be in the area of 20 fantasy points. Regardless of how well Tebow plays, his ability to run the ball for positive yardage every time he tries translates into a very consistent fantasy QB. Most leagues also only give 4 points for a passing TD so when Tebow runs one in, it means an extra 2 points. Tebow remains a top 10 guy for fantasy owners and Willis McGahee is also a very quality RB2 option despite the rough match up. I think the grind-it-out style of the Broncos will eventually break the Bears D after their offense gets almost nothing accomplished on the game. I wouldn’t start a single Bear on offense unless you lost Forte and are desperate for an RB, then you can play Barber but do NOT expect much at all from him. Eric Decker is still a poor flex-play option for standard leagues as he is the most likely of the Broncos receivers to catch a deep ball. Make Thomas have a big game in consecutive weeks before you risk starting him in the playoffs. The Broncos continue their unpredictable run for the divisional title and win this one.

The Bengals have been one of my favorite teams to watch thus far this season. They have one of the most prolific rookie QB to rookie WR combinations ever as well as a solid running game to compliment one of the best and most complete defenses in the NFL. Despite being in the middle of 4 games against their division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore, if the season ended today, the Bengals would be in the playoffs. They will need a big win this week against the Steelers to keep the Jets and Tim Tebow in the rear-view mirror and they certainly have a good shot at it. The status of Troy Polamalu could easily tell the tale of how this game will go. AJ Green will be able to blow the top off of the coverage a few times without Troy and his hair out there on Sunday and this season teams have been able to run against the Steelers with limited success. Pittsburgh on the other hand had issues moving the ball on offense against the Chiefs last week and this has me far from confident that they can find a way to win this game. I am going to follow my gut and take the underdog Bengals to win a very close game. Cedric Benson falls JUST outside my top 20 (to 21st) in my running back rankings, which makes him a great flex option or passable RB2. I am continuing to consider AJ Green matchup-proof still and kept him inside my top 20 this week at wide receiver. Rashard Mendenhall has proven to be nothing more than an RB2 this season and I ranked him on the low-end of my top 20 against the 5th best rush defense in the NFL. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown were unaffected by the match up when doing my rankings so you can start them confidently in whatever role you have been using them in. Big Ben doesn’t have a lot of upside and he remains a low-end starting QB this week.

Packers at Giants

The Giants are in a dog fight over the NFC East title and this game is huge for them. Unfortunately this is also one of the two games remaining where the Packers can reasonably be beaten. I am obviously going to put my money on Green Bay but if they win this one, I only see the Lions in week 17 as the only team capable of beating them. I expect Green Bay to play for the undefeated season as they remain the best and among the least injured teams in the league. The Giants on the other hand have had a variety of injuries but have persevered through them and sit one game behind Dallas for the division lead. Neither team has a defense that scares me at all and surprisingly, the Packers are the 31st ranked pass defense in the league. This is helped by the fact that they always have a sizable lead late and teams are throwing in desperation to try and play catch-up. I think Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks can be started with supreme confidence in this game as junk-time should be very good to them at least. Brandon Jacobs should be rendered irrelevant by the time the 4th quarter comes around and the duo of Starks and Grant for Green Bay has not been worth much attention for fantasy owners, so stay away.

Lions at Saints

The Lions have an opportunity to jump ahead of Chicago in the wild card race now that Caleb Hanie is at the helm for the Bears. It won’t be easy this week against the Saints, who have really hit their stride in recent weeks. Last Monday, the Saints dismantled the Giants and I honestly expect another convincing win for Brees. Detroit seems to have issues pushing the ball down field when they don’t have balance with the running game. Teams have been able to roll coverage to Calvin Johnson and contain him in order to try and force someone else to make the big play. This formula has worked better for some teams than others but I think it works very well for the Saints this week, who are bound to score plenty of points on offense. Neither defense scares me from a fantasy-owners stand point, so you can go ahead and start your QBs and WRs with confidence. Don’t bother with any of the running backs unless you are really desperate. James Jones is the most questionable receiver in this game and I think you have to play him if your light on options and are looking for a high-upside player that can beat a really high scoring opponent.

I am lucky enough to be going to this game and there might not be one that has a bigger impact on the playoff picture in week 9. Buffalo currently sits atop the AFC East and would have the #2 seed in the playoffs if the season ended today. Currently, the Jets are on the outside looking in on the playoff race and would have a really steep hill to climb if they lost this game. On offense, the Jets have gotten away from the ground and pound offense that has gotten them to two straight AFC championship games. Buffalo’s defense has been incredibly opportunistic and currently leads the NFL with 14 interceptions. In order for Sanchez to get the win for his team and get back on track towards their Super Bowl aspirations, it will take a heavy dose of Shonn Greene and the run game. The Bills offense has been very explosive and it all starts with Fred Jackson, who is having an MVP caliber season. The Jets have been weak against the run and Jackson will pick them apart if they turn the ball over or get off to a slow start and force Sanchez to go to the air and play from behind. Unfortunately for Jets fans, that is how I see this game going. Jackson just always seems to make the big play when it matters the most and the defense is constantly turning the ball over in crucial spots to help them put the game away. Steve Johnson is a flex play despite being on Revis island this week. Fitzpatrick will look to him when he is in man coverage and should be able to put up OK stats in this game. He hasn’t been great in recent weeks and I do not think that he will be able to do too much, but I just don’t think he can be benched. You can start all your normal Bills and Jets in this game, but I would avoid Sanchez as usual and expect this game to be largely about the running game.

Giants at Patriots

The Giants have a two game lead on their division and have been getting some incredible performances from both Bradshaw and Manning. Bradshaw unfortunately is going to miss around a month of time and I am not sure Brandon Jacobs will be able to provide the same balanced offensive attack. Luckily for them you do not need balance to attack the Patriots secondary, which is ranked dead last in the NFL and is allowing 323 yards per game. Hakeem Nicks is questionable going into this game and his presence would mean the difference in this game being either competitive or a blow out. If he plays it could go either way but without him, I do not know if they will be able to keep pace with Tom Brady. Brandon Jacobs gets a bump in value with Bradshaw out and you should play every Giants wide receiver that you own in this game. Tom Brady is of course a must-start despite a pretty average performance last week and there are still no Patriots Wide Receivers that I would go out of my way to start. I am expecting a Patriot victory in this game but if Nicks plays it will be a pretty close and high scoring affair.

Ravens at Steelers

My favorite part of the AFC North is that these two teams meet up twice a year. There is always some great football to be had when defenses of this caliber meet up and these have been the best two defenses for at least a decade or two. This particular game could get out of hand as the Steelers are surging and the Ravens struggling, but nothing forces you to play your best like a divisional rivalry game that decides who will sit in first place. I would stay away from any flex plays from either team and just focus on your typical starters: Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, Mike Wallace and Ben Roethlisberger. Anquan Boldin is typically a very good WR2 option, but I think of him more as a poor flex play this week against this Steelers team that just shut down Brady. I like Pittsburgh to get a tough win, but the Ravens defense has not been what has struggled as of late so I don’t see it being by any more than 10 points.

I am very excited to watch my Bills play this weekend as they go on the road to face Eli Manning and the Giants. The last time Buffalo played on the road they were beat by an inferior Bengals team as Fitzpatrick struggled against a stout defense. The Giants defensive front is phenomenal and finally healthy. Jason Pierre-Paul is quietly having a breakout season and with Osi Umenyiora back, the Bills’ offensive line is in for a long day. It will be up to Scott Chandler and the running backs to aid in protection because if they can give Fitzpatrick time, Steve Johnson and David Nelson will be able to get open. Terrence McGee will finally be on the field after injuring his hamstring in the season opener and this is very good news for Bills fans. The Giants have one of the best wide receiver trio’s in the NFL now that Victor Cruz has emerged as a play maker. Hakeem Nicks is one of the best red zone targets in the NFL and Manningham is a very complete receiver with great hands who runs very crisp routes. The story of this game will be simple: turnovers. Buffalo’s secondary has been incredibly opportunistic and has forced 4 INTs from both Tom Brady and Michael Vick this season. Eli Manning had issues with turnovers last week against the Seahawks, throwing 3 interceptions. If the Giants want to win this game, they have to protect the football and pressure Fitzpatrick. Rookie Chris Hairston has a tall-task in his second start filling in for the injured Demetrius Bell at left tackle, but nothing slows down the pass rush like an effective run game and I like Buffalo to win a close game this week on the shoulders of Fred Jackson. I would not sit any of your fantasy players in this game because these offenses are not going to be stopped completely. Eli Manning remains an good QB2 option, but I am too nervous about him throwing too many INTs to start him in standard leagues. Ahmad Bradshaw has the best match up here and will see a lot of use unless the game gets out of hand. David Nelson makes a very nice flex play because the loss of Donald Jones should lead to an increase in targets for Nelson.

Cowboys at Patriots

This game should be an entertaining one to say the least. Tony Romo is always the deciding factor in big games for the Cowboys, he either makes unbelievable game winning plays or bonehead mistakes that hand the game to his opponent. Maybe it’s wishful thinking as a Bills fan but I think that with an extra week to prepare and Miles Austin back in the lineup, the Cowboys will be able to squeak out a victory in a nail-biter. The deciding factor for me is on defense; in the last 5 years no one has tallied more sacks than DeMarcus Ware who tallied 72 in that time frame. Of the two defenses, Dallas’ is the one that I think has the best chance to impact the game and force a couple turnovers. The smart money is certainly on New England because Dallas is not going to be able to contain Wes Welker and Tom Brady WILL score points. Neither defense is a scary match up for fantasy owners of all players in this game. I think Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are must starts along with Wes Welker who is on pace to break a few records this season. Tom Brady and Tony Romo should both be started with confidence as well but I don’t know as though any running back will have a huge game here. Each team has a weak secondary and plays a pass-first style of offense.

49ers at Lions

San Francisco has really impressed me after a slow start on offense. An easy schedule and a few timely punt returns have gotten them off to a 4-1 start and they have really started to impress me over the past two weeks on offense. Alex Smith is playing smart and safe football and Frank Gore has been over 100 yards for the past two games. Detroit has been almost perfect over the first 5 games and they look to remain undefeated. This game will need to be won in the trenches. Detroit has invested a lot of high draft picks on their defensive line and San Francisco has invested their recent draft picks in their offensive line. So far this season these young groups of lineman have been a huge part of their teams success and I think whoever wins THIS match up wins this football game. San Francisco has to keep Stafford and Megatron on the bench with a heavy dose of Frank Gore. Carlos Rogers is playing the best football of his life for the 9ers and has a pick in three straight games after returning one for a TD last week. I actually like San Fran to win a close game with a big play on defense giving them the edge. You have to start all your Detroit Lions though; Jahvid Best will be one of the best RB2 options for fantasy owners until he gets hurt and Calvin Johnson is by far the best receiver in the NFL for fantasy-purposes. Matthew Stafford is a very viable starter, but I don’t think he has too much big-game potential against this defense. Alex Smith is an option in a pinch for 2 QB leagues if your having bye week issues, but I would stay away if possible.