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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 1998
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE PICTURES THIS EVENING
HAVE SHOWN A CHANGE IN THE HEADING OF BONNIE TO ENE...AT ABOUT 14
KT. THIS TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT...ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGESTING A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
NORTH OF THE CENTER...IMPLIES THAT THOSE WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
FROM NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THE LAST PORTION OF COASTAL TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.
THE SYSTEM NOW LACKS DEEP CONVECTION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BONNIE
COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRAVERSES
COOL WATERS. IN THE MEANTIME...IT SHOULD BE ACCELERATED GENERALLY
TOWARD ENE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE
GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOW THIS. OWING TO THE RECENT
MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
TRACKS AND...IF CORRECT...THE CENTER WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ATLANTIC
CANADA.
RAPPAPORT
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0300Z 38.2N 71.2W 60 KTS
12HR VT 29/1200Z 39.0N 68.8W 60 KTS
24HR VT 30/0000Z 41.3N 64.3W 55 KTS
36HR VT 30/1200Z 43.0N 58.9W 50 KTS
48HR VT 31/0000Z 44.1N 51.9W 50 KTS
72HR VT 01/0000Z 43.0N 36.0W 50 KTS
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