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One Stock to Rule the Recession

History shows that innovative companies have incredible opportunities in down or rebounding markets.

Jordan

()

Mar 16, 2010 at 12:00AM

"As long as there are problems to be solved, there will be innovators to solve them. Companies that use the current tough times as an excuse to de-emphasize innovation are going to severely regret it."-- Scott Anthony

At first, the idea sounds counterintuitive: Recessions actually offer disruptive companies their best opportunities to dominate. Although companies tighten their belts, cash gets hoarded, and consumers rein in their spending -- for the disruptors, it's showtime. That's the chief thesis of Scott Anthony, author of The Silver Lining: An Innovation Playbook for Uncertain Times.

Look beyond the surfaceUnusual as it may be, the theory appears to hold water. During economic downturns, Anthony argues, an abundance of scarcity forces companies to shed old, outdated business models and develop and produce new ideas. With the help of technology, innovation can occur at lightning speed. Just think, Anthony writes, how quickly Facebook went from a college dorm-room project to a global enterprise.

He also notes that many great companies, such as McDonald's, IBM, and General Electric were all formed during times of recession.

In fact, more recently, harsh economic times didn't seem to stop Advanced Micro Devices(NYSE: AMD) from unveiling a new graphic card, which happens to be one of the world's most powerful processors ever, BMW from unveiling the first of its new hybrid vehicles, or Sirius XM Radio(Nasdaq: SIRI) from coming out with a Skydock that can turn any iPod or iPhone into a virtual satellite radio.

In addition, mergers and acquisitions will usually pick up speed in recessions, as the companies that have cash become more willing to spend to finance expansion, growth, and creativity. The Boston Consulting Group says this is a smart move. According to its research, deals done during a recession generate 15% more return to shareholders than deals done during a boom period. We have already started to see this happen, as big companies like BP(NYSE: BP) and Dow Chemical(NYSE: DOW) have engaged in multibillion-dollar acquisitions or sales.

These industry shake-ups can have lasting impacts. Right now, as we steer our way through the greatest recession in decades, there are a plethora of opportunities to take advantage of.

Innovate, innovate, innovateFor Intel boss Craig Barrett has said, "You can't save your way out of a recession; you have to invest your way out." He's right. To truly improve profits, companies can only cut costs for so long. The only true way to come out on the right side of the recession is to innovate, break rules, and hope your ideas are better than the next guy's. The Kauffman Foundation, in a study of entrepreneurship, found that about half of the current Fortune 500 companies were founded during recessionary or bear markets.

That's why companies such as IBM are holding a series of "innovation jams" designed to come up with new and influential initiatives; why CF Industries(NYSE: CF) is forking over $4.7 billion to acquire Terra Industries, forming a new global leader in the world fertilizer market; and why pharmaceuticals like Novartis(NYSE: NVS) are breaking ground by trying to introduce the first oral drug for multiple sclerosis.

Time to break the rulesThis line of thinking gets David Gardner, co-founder of The Motley Fool and head of our Rule Breakers team, excited about investing right now. David is a classic growth investor -- he loves companies that are breaking the bounds of normalcy and engaging in risky but intelligent shifts in their industries.

I recently had the pleasure of sitting down with David to discuss his investing strategy. He said he tries to invest in companies that he believes in, but which also have "dark clouds I can see through." David explained that if you can look past that dark cloud of adversity, but others cannot, you will often gain from other people's fears.

That's what David did when he recommended buying Intuitive Surgical(Nasdaq: ISRG) back in April 2005, when mixing robots and medical surgery sounded more like something out of a 1980's horror movie. Even with a whopping price-to-earnings ratio of 71, David went on to recommend the company three more times, later again in 2005, and in 2006 and 2008. David stuck to his gut, and helped Rule Breakers subscribers achieve net gains of more than 1,500%!

His team recently recommended Check Point Software Technologies, a company with all the traits of a recession-beater, operating in an industry whose needs are growing exponentially: the computer and network security arena. Serving mostly corporate customers, Check Point offers integrated solutions for a host of security and safety issues.

Despite losing some ground to competitors in 2005, the company has come roaring back and is now the No. 3 security software provider, boasting whopping gross margins north of 90%. In addition, with zero debt and a gigantic pile of cash on hand, this company is perfectly poised to take advantage of a growing security market that already totals $5.5 billion per year. Oh, and did I mention it's only trading at 15 times next year's earnings?

The analysts at Rule Breakers offer two new stock ideas every month that fit the winning criteria I've talked about. Some picks have turned out differently than they anticipated, but since 2004, they're beating the S&P 500 by more than 21 percentage points on average. That's pretty impressive.

If you're interested in seeing all of David's past and present stock recommendations, or learning more about Check Point, click here for more information. We're offering a 30-day free trial with absolutely no obligation to subscribe.