Tag: Todd Frazier

As we get further into the season, the sample sizes of players has become a little more realistic. For those who say that players will correct themselves and hit “to the back of the baseball card.” That is the case for some players, while others actually breakout or stay in funks all season. Based on the “norms” of players, this should help you decide who to trade or sell high, who to target, and who to avoid like the plague.

Who to Target

Frazier has struggled, but he is still mashing and is a player to target. Courtesy: CBS Sports

Frazier is sporting a pretty dreadful .206/.301/.466 line over 272 plate appearances. His average is driven down by his .185 BABIP, worst among qualified batters in MLB. If you’ve owned Frazier before, you know that the batting average isn’t what makes him valuable, but that number should certainly increase over the rest of the season, especially as Chicago heats up and the ball flies out of U.S. Cellular. Additionally, Frazier’s 19 bombs are 2nd in MLB and he has a .261 ISO and the highest walk rate of his career (11.4%). It should be a good summer for the Toddfather.

You should have probably targeted Arenado at the top of your draft, but, if you can deal for him, you need to find a way to get him on your team. He is tied for most homers in baseball after his shot on Wednesday afternoon and the 25-year-old could see additional growth over his 42 home run/130-RBI 2015 season. How is that possible? Well, his .260 BABIP is bound to increase closer to his career .287, and Arenado is striking out at the lowest rate of his career (10.5%) and walking at the highest rate of his career (10.5%). With Carlos Gonzalez slugging alongside him, at least until the trade deadline, the sky continues to be the limit for this young star.

Wacha looks pumped about being on this list.Courtesy: Washington Times

Wacha may fly under the radar because he won’t strikeout 200 batters per season in fantasy leagues, but he will win games (#killthewin) and post solid ERA and WHIP numbers. At least, that has been the case prior to this season. There’s nothing to say that he can’t get back on track. With a 2-6 record, 4.91 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, Wacha has many owners frustrated. However, his 3.48 FIP says that he can get things back on track. The fact that he plays on a perennial contender may help, but the Cardinals aren’t really the class of the NL Central any longer with the Cubs 9.5 games up going into Wednesday’s games. Grab Wacha from someone who is selling low and reap the benefits of reading my website. Thank me later.

Last season’s AL Cy Young winner has struggled thus far, going 3-9 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He leads MLB in hits allowed and earned runs. It’s hard to say that he can improve on that line, but it appears that he may be able to do so. He does have a 3.82 FIP and he is still striking out a little over eight per nine innings; however, he’ll need to get his walks down in order for his overall numbers to improve. The Astros are still very good, despite their 31-35 record, and you don’t win 20 games and a Cy Young without some skills. Trust in his beard and abilities.

Players to Avoid

Call me a #hater if you want, but that BABIP makes Marte someone I wouldn’t trust.Courtesy: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Marte is having an excellent season, hitting a robust .335/.376/.502, with 26 extra-base hits and 19 stolen bases. At the age of 27, he is in the midst of the “Bill James prime” and has always been a gifted athlete; however, he hasn’t always been this lucky. Marte has a .416 BABIP, 56 points higher than his already impressive .360 career BABIP. He could certainly be “breaking out”, but this type of elevated statistic isn’t easy to keep up with all season. If you’re in a one-year re-draft, you may want to cash him in at this peak value.

Fister’s success is a feel-good story after battling through injuries and ineffectiveness in 2015 for the Nationals. The 32-year-old has a 7-3 record to go along with his 3.26 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He’s back to his old self, like when he won 30 games over the 2013 and 2014 seasons, right? Wrong. His 4.75 FIP, 81.8 left on base percentage, .254 BABIP allowed, and career worst walk rate, scream regression. He has proven peripherals wrong for a number of years, due to his low strikeout totals, but he would need to prove it for another month before I’m buying. If you have him, sell high.

Walker has so much potential, but that is all that he has right now.Courtesy: Seattle Times

Walker still has a lot of prospect hype surrounding him, but, at some point, the results need to catch up to that potential. To this point, the 3.69 ERA and 1.15 WHIP have hidden some ugly numbers for the 23-year-old. The 4.61 FIP is what screams regression, while the 18.4% FB:HR rate is terrifying as we enter the warmer months, especially when you consider the teams in the AL West and the way the ball flies out of those parks in the summer. Over his last seven starts, Walker is 1-4 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, allowing a whopping 11 homers in 38.2 innings. His solid overall numbers are the result of his first six starts – when he was 2-2 with a 1.97 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, which he allowed just three home runs over 32 innings. He may be injured or the league made an adjustment. Either way, Walker isn’t as good as his statistics show right now – unless you can store him on your bench while he figures it out – if he ever does.

“It looks like Brandon is with us. Brandon, for me, is a second baseman of tremendous value and talent, it’s hard to just assign someone else that job. If Brandon’s with us, I expect him to be playing second base.”

Oh? It does appear that the player who the club offered an extension to, giving him 10-and-five rights, is still “stuck” with the club – or is it that the club is “stuck” with him? This, apparently, came after both Walt Jocketty and Price had praised the club’s new, future second baseman, Jose Peraza, who was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the three-team deal that sent fan favorite Todd Frazier to the Chicago White Sox.

Phillips didn’t turn his back on the Reds – it’s the other way aroundCourtesy:datdudebp.com

Oh? So, the team that has spent the whole offseason trading away their talent for lesser talent is now going to try to make the upcoming 90-plus loss season the fault of a 35-year-old who refused to move away. At one time, that was called loyalty. It was waiting out the horrendous contract that Hall of Fame shortstop Barry Larkin was given to finish his career in Cincinnati, but, now…Phillips is the problem. He’s blocking the super prospect now.

The problem with this thinking, however, is that the Reds acquired a “ready” talent without knowing that they were going to be able to deal the veteran. This is the equivalent of the club dealing for young talent and acquiring the top first base prospect in baseball. Without the designated hitter, the kid would be riding the pine in favor of Joey Votto. So, why are the Reds pinning this stall in the rebuild on a player?

This fiasco is the fault of Walt Jocketty and Walt Jocketty only. Major League Baseball is not the NFL – you don’t need multiple, elite play-makers at a single position. You need to have a steady flow of talent within your minor league system, and you deal a player like Yasmani Grandal when you have a Devin Mesoraco ahead of him for the long-term. That made sense four years ago when the club was dealing young talent for proven talent and acquiring Mat Latos from the Padres. Now, Jocketty has a very unimpressive farm system that has a dearth of offensive producers, even after dealing Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Aroldis Chapman, and Frazier since last July. Jesse Winker is the great hope for the future, and he profiles as a corner outfielder who is going to hit about 15 home runs, and if you think Peraza is the answer…you have that scum Phillips blocking him at second.

The problem continues to be the Baseball Operations side of things in Cincinnati. The organization continues to try to pass the blame elsewhere, but it starts and finishes there. For a positive change in Cincinnati, it is Jocketty who needs to go. Quit with the small-market nonsense. Get someone in there with a plan that can work.

The Cincinnati Reds have spent some time this offseason shaking things up, promoting Walt Jocketty to President of Baseball Operations, while moving Dick Williams to General Manager and Senior Vice President. After a horrific 64-98, last place finish, it is fair to wonder if Dick Williams was promoted to be the “fall guy” for the firesale that appears to be on its way over the next several months. Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported on Tuesday that the Reds appear ready to deal LHP Aroldis Chapman, 2B Brandon Phillips, OF Jay Bruce, and 3B Todd Frazier, or, at least, are ready to listen on offers. When considering Cincinnati owner Bob Castellini’s long-time friendship with Jocketty, perhaps the legacy that this revamping would leave on Jocketty’s name and resume was the motive for the sudden change in guard at the top of the personnel side of the club. Still, it remains a confusing time to be a Cincinnati fan.

Cincinnati fans need to understand that this is just the beginning of several changes. If Jay Bruce, Aroldis Chapman, Brandon Phillips, and Marlon Byrd are still with the team on August 1st, Walt Jocketty is doing it wrong. This team hasn’t won a World Series since 1990, and those players aren’t going to bring another to Cincinnati. Scrap it and start over.

Well, the good news is that Byrd was dealt. The bad news is, the remaining players are still on the roster. Jocketty did it wrong. He would have been able to “cash-in” on the additional time that club’s would have had with Chapman and Bruce, in particular. The All-Star Game in Cincinnati was over and it was clear that the team was heading in the wrong direction. If there is someone in the organization who thinks that losing Cueto and Leake to free agency, getting Devin Mesoraco back and getting 150 innings out of Homer Bailey, who will be returning from Tommy John surgery, was going to make the Reds contenders in 2016, they need to be put in a rubber room and removed from their roles…immediately.

Dick Williams seems like a great guy. I met him at the Reds Caravan the last two winters, and he has been with the club since 2006. Maybe he has what it takes to pull the club out of the cellar, but it is going to be a very lengthy process. The prospects that they could receive from dealing Chapman, Bruce, and/or Frazier would certainly help the rebuilding process, but the Reds won’t improve overnight.

Votto will carry a putrid supporting cast…again.

The problem in Cincinnati will remain the same. Joey Votto will be able to get on base and no one will be able to drive him in. The pitching, even after all of those rookies started so many games in 2015, shows glimpses of hope, but the team needs production from eight players in the lineup to outscore the opposition. Only four teams scored fewer runs than the Reds in 2015, but the Cueto, Leake, and Byrd deals brought…pitchers. Pitchers and a first baseman, Adam Duvall, who might be useful if he can play a position that Joey Votto isn’t supposed to be playing, in a league without a designated hitter.

Dick Williams has a huge problem. He, like Wayne Krivsky and Dan O’Brien before him, will be expected to fix a mess that was left for him, and he will, likely, not be given the time necessary to really turn it all around. Cincinnati should be very busy in the coming days at the GM Meetings, but it is fair to question whether the minds at the top have changed enough to really impact the club in a positive way moving forward. Fans can only hope.

Over the last month, some players have inflated their production to incredible levels. With all of the excitement from the NBA and NHL Playoffs, the Supreme Court, and…the Women’s World Cup…perhaps you’ve missed it. Below are some players who are getting back on track or having career seasons.

Last 30 days: .394/.525/.713, 6 2B, 8 HR, 22 RBI, 15:27 K:BB, 5 SB

You could argue that Goldschmidt has been the best player in MLB this season, even though he ranks 3rd in WAR (4.3) behind the Nationals’ Bryce Harper (5.1) and the Indians’ Jason Kipnis (4.6). Goldy has compiled a .354/.473/.654 line to go along with 15 doubles, 20 home runs, 60 RBI, and a league-leading 59 walks (17 intentional). While the Diamondbacks sit at 35-37, they are just 4.5 games out of the Wild Card hunt. Goldschmidt will continue to be pitched around as the primary source of fear within the Arizona lineup.

Last 30 days: .354/.381/.770, 14 2B, 11 HR, 26 RBI, 2 SB

Frazier is the Reds’ Ambassador for the upcoming All-Star Game in Cincinnati, utilizing his friendly personality and love of Frank Sinatra to become a beloved figure in Reds Country. He is becoming a beloved figure around baseball, especially fantasy circles, due to his incredible power outburst over the last month. Frazier has been the 4th most valuable position player in baseball (based on WAR, 4.1), as he has become an asset not only for his bat, but his slick glove at the hot corner.

Last 30 days: .333/.416/.818, 3 2B, 15 HR, 30 RBI, 5:13 K:BB

“Prince Albert” has found the stroke that made him such a force in his Hall of Fame worthy time in St. Louis. After averaging “just” 25 home runs, 91 RBI, and an .810 OPS in his first three seasons for the Angels, many thought the days of 40 home runs, 121 RBI, and 1.037 OPS, his average year in 11 seasons with the Cardinals, were long gone. Pujols currently leads the AL in bombs (23), and will continue to be a part of the two-man wrecking crew that the Angels have with him and Mike Trout in the order.

Giants’ 2B Joe Panik – career year or start of something special?Courtesy: goldengatesports.com

Last 30 days: .336/.405/.542, 10 2B, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 12:12 K:BB, 2 SB

Panik likely wasn’t on your list of players who could post a .300/.400/.500 season, but he has been that player over the last month, and very good over the entire season. Panik’s .310/.380/.463 line, 19 doubles, six home runs, and 141 wRC+ (2nd among second basemen in MLB) aren’t all that different from his .296/.365/.403 line over his minor league career, yet, he has nearly reached each of his season-long projections that were set forth by Steamer and ZiPS. His 2.8 WAR has allowed him to show more value than the likes of Dustin Pedroia, Kolten Wong, Brian Dozier, and Jose Altuve. Panik was a first round pick out of St. John’s University in 2011. At just 24, he has shown himself to be quite productive, and, if all else fails, he has a slick glove at second.

Last 30 days: .361/.418/.639, 6 2B, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 11:7 K:BB

Based on 190 plate appearances, Turner is the 15th most valuable position player in MLB (2.9 WAR). He is having an excellent month, while continuing to shine in the opportunities that he is provided, which are coming in bunches since the Dodgers traded Juan Uribe. While Corey Seager continues to mash in the minors, it is likely Jimmy Rollins at short who is more likely to be replaced than the do-it-all Turner. A career .260/.323/.361 hitter over his first five seasons (2009-2013, 926 plate appearances), the 30-year-old third baseman has hit .334/.400/.526 triple-slash over 512 plate appearances since the start of the 2014 season, with 33 doubles and 17 home runs.

Gallardo looked like a lost cause early this season, posting a 4.05 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in his first five starts for the Rangers. With the way that the ball flies out of Arlington, it was only a matter of time before the Mexican hurler’s numbers would look even worse. However, that hasn’t been the case. Since May 1st, Gallardo has a 2.51 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 61 innings, including his impressive run of starts over the last 30 days. While the velocity and strikeout totals continue to dip, Gallardo is finding more success by cutting back on his curve and increasing the use of his slider and change. We’ll see if he can continue to stay hot as Texas heats up.

Braves’ RHP Williams Perez – will the league catch up to him?Courtesy: foxsports.com

Who? Unranked by Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com prior to the season, the 24-year-old has moved quickly through the Atlanta system since reaching full season ball in 2013. He jumped to Triple-A to start the season and made five starts before joining the Braves bullpen. He made all of two appearances before he joined the rotation – minus a random save opportunity on June 13th. In his seven starts, Perez has a 2.14 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. While the walks would need to come down for him to become a more valuable option, Perez has youth and results on his side to this point.

Karns has stepped up to take on a major role while the Rays battle health issues that have landed Alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi, and Drew Smyly on the disabled list for extended time this season and Matt Moore continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery. The 27-year-old late bloomer, drafted in the 12th round of the 2009 MLB Draft, had shown some impressive strikeout skills in the minors (10.3 K:9 over 449.1 minor league innings), but, though he hasn’t reached those numbers to this point, he has certainly shown that he can get major league hitters out. Over 15 starts, Karns has a 3.28 ERA and 1.22 WHIP to go along with his 8.2 K:9. The Rays continue to have a process to maintain success, even after losing Andrew Friedman to the Dodgers from their front office. Karns, acquired by Friedman and Company in February of 2014, looks like a solid, long-term option for the Rays.

Over the next several weeks, The Baseball Haven will be creating season previews for all 30 MLB teams. You’ll find their projected records (based on PECOTA records from Baseball Prospectus, as of 2/15/2015), each team’s top three players (based on Steamer WAR projections from FanGraphs), and some valuable notes on each team, including likely bounce-back candidates, potential breakout players or fantasy sleepers, as well as a look back at offseason transactions which led to each team’s projections. Stop back frequently to see where your favorite team ranks!

Votto hasn’t been the same player since his 2010 NL MVP, or so it seems. As a native of Cincinnati, all that I hear on talk radio is how Votto isn’t worth the money and he doesn’t swing enough. It is an argument that continues to play out, as Votto continues to walk and get on base, but he also continues to see his home run totals dip. For all of those who thought that last season was so awful, due to his .255 average, they forget that he got on-base at a .390 clip. As long as Votto is patient, fans and fantasy players should be, too. He is the most intelligent hitter to play in MLB since Tony Gwynn, and it is a matter of time before he stays on the field and finds his MVP-caliber stroke again. Those who take a chance on him will, likely, be rewarded. He isn’t going to miss 100 games again. He’s in shape, the Reds were cautious last season because they weren’t competitive, and he instantly reclaims the title as the Reds best player when he suits up on Opening Day.

Can Iglesias take on a major role in his rookie season?Courtesy: Cincinnati.com

Iglesias is a 24-year-old right-hander from Cuba whom the Reds signed to a seven-year, $27 million deal last June. Despite being just 5’11”, the Reds seem likely to try the youngster as a starting pitcher, though his long-term role may be in the bullpen. Iglesias was a reliever in Cuba and had some pretty miserable statistics based on his control, but he has very good stuff, a four-pitch mix with a sweeping breaking ball that could be a strikeout pitch if he is able to gain some command. The Reds have a couple of things going for them in how they develop Iglesias – they’ve had success with short starters (see Johnny Cueto) and they’ve groomed relief pitchers into successful starters in recent years (see Tony Cingrani and Michael Lorenzen). Iglesias is more likely to open the season in the bullpen than the rotation, but he is certainly someone to watch based on his stuff and the Reds need for a strong set-up man after watching so many crash and burn in the role in 2014.

Offseason Overview: Cincinnati had a busy, yet, somewhat confusing offseason. They needed to trim some payroll after a miserable season that saw attendance drop, so they needed to move some talent to accommodate that need. They dealt RHP Mat Latos and RHP Alfredo Simon, acquiring affordable, young pitching in RHP Anthony DeSclafani and RHP Brandon Crawford, while adding solid depth in the infield by acquiring INF Eugenio Suarez. However, despite the sudden youth movement, the Reds then traded prospect RHP Ben Lively for OF Marlon Byrd. They finished off the winter by signing RHP Burke Badenhop, who had a fantastic season in Boston in 2014, to shore up the spotty bullpen. So…they got a little younger and cheaper, then got a little older by getting Byrd, who is under contract through 2016 and will turn 38 in August. They kept their core together and must assume that they will get more out of Bruce, 2B Brandon Phillips, and Votto in 2015, but they didn’t truly address their rotation, which became quite slim after dealing away 40 percent of the 2014 rotation, only signing LHP Paul Maholm to address the losses.

The Verdict: Walt Jocketty continues to make deals as the GM in Cincinnati, but he isn’t making the additions necessary to get the team over the hump. After the 2013 season, Dusty Baker was fired, Shin-Soo Choo left via free agency, and the Reds gave Billy Hamilton the center field job – that about sums up their offseason last year. Sure, Jocketty moved payroll and acquired depth, but DeSclafani isn’t going to replace the ability of Latos, and both he and Crawford are better suited for relief roles. Ownership and management is hoping for more of the same out of Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco, with improved offensive output from Bruce, Votto, Phillips, and Hamilton. If everything clicks offensively, they may be able to score enough to beat the opposition, but they can only count on Cueto, Mike Leake, and Homer Bailey on three of every five days. Someone will need to come out of nowhere to give the club 60 good starts in the No.4 and No.5 spots in the rotation, and that talent isn’t on hand. It will be a long season in Cincinnati, and their projection by PECOTA, specifically last place in the NL Central, seems perfect.

With the All-Star break starting after Sunday’s action, there are some baseball fans who are feeling like a train ran over them, weeping at the thought of discussing their fantasy baseball teams due to horrific production, numerous injuries, and running their squads with their hearts instead of their heads – sitting in last place. The cellar isn’t so bad until all of the wine is gone, but some of us have players to thank for tremendous starts to the 2014 fantasy baseball season. Not all of us can have Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Felix Hernandez, and Troy Tulowitzki, so these are the players who are helping to separate the contenders from the pretenders in the first half of the season:

Altuve is having a career year, on pace for over 220 hits and 70 stolen bases. In an era of huge swing and miss on the offensive side of the game, Altuve lacks patience but makes consistent contact, putting the ball in play to utilize his speed. He leads MLB with his 128 hits, with 20 of those coming on infield hits. With Jon Singleton and George Springer joining him in Houston this season, a glimpse into the Astros’ future is upon us.

“Dr. Smooth” has already eclipsed his previous career-high in home runs (10 in 2013) this season, and will easily surpass his career bests in several other categories, and if that wasn’t enough, he is tied for the MLB lead in outfield assists (10, though he has negative defensive value). You likely don’t earn anything for those throws, but Branley’s bat has kept an up-and-down Indians club in the AL Central race all season. His career contact rates suggest that this breakout is legit – not bad for the player to be named later in the C.C. Sabathia deal, huh?

To think that Gordon was “in the mix” for the second base job this spring after the Dodgers signed Cuban infielder Alex Guerrero seems absurd when looking at his offensive impact this season. The speedster has obviously assisted fantasy players with the league-leading 42 stolen bases, but getting on base (formerly a problem) has allowed him to be driven in by Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and the other Dodger hitters. Sometime you just need a long-term look to show what you have. The Dodgers committed to him, and Gordon is rewarding many people so far this season.

I wasn’t much of a believer in Hamilton given his struggles in Triple-A last season, but he has certainly proven me wrong. While he isn’t leading the league in steals, he has certainly given the Reds an dynamic defender in center and a threat to score at will. The power is just icing on the cake for fantasy owners. His recent tear (.344/.375/.574 over the last 15 games) has not only increased his numbers, they have helped put the Reds back in contention in the NL Central.

Blackmon is an All-Star. He barely had a grasp on the starting left field job when spring training started, so that is about all that you need to know; however, I will share his home and road splits because I’m not so sure his value is legitimate unless you play him during long home stands –

Todd Frazier is the second most valuable third baseman in baseball in 2014 (based on WAR, 3.5), ahead of the likes of Evan Longoria, David Wright, and Adrian Beltre. He’s hitting for power, he’s running, and, the best part, nothing in his numbers truly suggest a regression. With the hot months ahead of us and Great American Ballpark being a notoriously friendly environment, we could easily see 30 home runs and 100 RBI next to his name at the end of the season.

Perhaps we should have seen this coming after Richards had one of the top fastball velocities in baseball in 2013. After all, if you consider that his average fastball was 94.8 mph in 2013, he would have ranked in the top four in baseball behind Matt Harvey, Stephen Strasburg, and Jose Fernandez. Good company. Better results.

Simon is leading MLB in the all important WIN. Ugh…the win…well, it still matters in fantasy. The FIP suggests he could see regression, but the bigger question is the number of innings he will log, as his career-high for innings was in 2011 when he reached 115.2 for Baltimore. He will likely spend some time in the Reds’ bullpen to limit those down the stretch, or a burnout is likely.

His career was nearly over in 2011 due to shoulder issues, he missed all of 2012 and then the solid return in Cleveland was special…but this is incredible. Kazmir deserves this success after overcoming so many obstacles, and the A’s look intelligent, as always, in their wise investment – as do fantasy owners.

Alvarez has a heavy fastball that he can’t blow by many, but it manages to keep the ball on the ground and in the park. That has helped him take a big step forward in his production on the mound this season. At 24, he is a strong dynasty option. He really knows how to pitch and his command will keep him relevant if and when he loses his velocity.

Has Todd Frazier Shown Enough to Warrant an Extension in Cincinnati?

The Cincinnati Reds have locked-up Homer Bailey and Joey Votto to nine-figure contracts, Brandon Phillips is signed through 2017 (he’s owed $39 million from 2015-2017), and Jay Bruce is signed through 2017 (when including his 2017 team option worth $13 million). Beyond those four players, and pre-arbitration youngsters, like Devin Mesoraco and Billy Hamilton, the Reds are set to lose several players to free agency after the 2015 and 2016 season. Chief among those heading towards free agency are Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, and Mike Leake after the 2015 season, and Aroldis Chapman after the 2016 season.

Cincinnati Reds 3B Todd Frazier

Cincinnati have several young arms on the way up, including current bullpen arm Tony Cingrani, three starters in Double-A – Robert Stephenson, Michael Lorenzen, and Ben Lively, and recent college draftees Nick Howard (out of Virginia) and Wyatt Strahan (out of Southern California) to add to the mix. The presence of these young arms could ease the pain of losing three above-average starting pitchers and an elite closer in the next couple of seasons; however, outside of Jesse Winker and Seth Mejias-Brean, who were just promoted to Double-A, there isn’t much offensive depth in the minor league system, and certainly not enough to produce enough runs offensively to win games when and if Cueto, Latos, and Leake leave via free agency. The team will need to score more, and they need to lock-up young producers like Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier to long-term, team-friendly deals now to avoid an offensive collapse in future seasons, especially considering that the Reds are ranked 27th in MLB in runs scored with some talented players in the lineup currently.

Devin Mesoraco is breaking out in 2014, posting a .304/.385/.587 triple-slash and 10 home runs in his first 151 plate appearances. While he and Frazier are both free agents after the 2017 season, this is Mesoraco’s first experience with extensive playing time, and the club should monitor how he continues handling pitchers and his own health prior to locking up the 26-year-old backstop, though, he would make an excellent player to extend, as well.

However, this post isn’t about Mesoraco, it’s about Todd Frazier, and Todd Frazier is not only breaking out in 2014, he is taking steps towards stardom. After another multi-hit game on Thursday, his 18th of the season, Frazier has a .279/.349/.517 triple-slash to go along with his 31 extra-base hits, 41 RBI, and seven stolen bases. At 28, Frazier is in his prime and would be in his early 30’s if the Reds were able to buyout his arbitration years and gain options for the 2018 through 2020 seasons, while keeping the costs of a potential right-handed power hitter down.

You see, Frazier is overlooked quite a bit due to his struggles in his sophomore season, 2013, when he managed a .234/.314/.407 triple-slash, but some of that can be attributed to his .269 BABIP. While there were struggles, Frazier did improve his walk-rate (which has taken another step forward in 2014), while also improving his strikeout rate. His 100 wRC+ was league average, despite the ugly batting average, but his .721 OPS was in the top 15 among third basemen in MLB, and he posted a career-high 73 RBI.

In 2012, Frazier’s rookie season, he had an .829 OPS, second among NL rookies, to go along with his 19 home runs and 67 RBI, while being forgotten among the National League Rookie of the Year hype that led to Bryce Harper winning the award, while Mike Trout‘s historic run towards finishing second in the AL MVP voting to Miguel Cabrera left many other rookies that year (including Yoenis Cespedes, Matt Carpenter, and Yu Darvish) feeling like chopped liver.

Since his rookie season, Todd Frazier ranks 11th in wRC+ (115, higher than Kyle Seager, Pablo Sandoval, and Pedro Alvarez), 11th in wOBA (.344, higher than Seager, Sandoval, and Alvarez), 11th in WAR (8.6, higher than Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Sandoval, and Alvarez), and each of the players that Frazier ranks higher than make considerably more money, outside of Seager:

Aramis Ramirez: in the middle of a three-year, $40 million deal (2015 – $4 million buyout or $14 million option)

Ryan Zimmerman: in the middle of an 11-year, $135 million deal that runs through 2020 (including options)

Kyle Seager: earning $540,000 this year and arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2015

Pablo Sandoval: in the final year of a three-year, $17.15 million deal and likely to cash-in this winter

Pedro Alvarez: earning $4.25 million this year and arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2015

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Should Cincinnati lock-up their breakout star? Can they?

Frazier is making $600,000 this season and is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. Just like Seager, Frazier has provided tremendous value when compared to other third basemen around baseball, and he has earned a financial reward for his contribution over the last two-and-a-half seasons, especially when you consider the bargain he has been to this point. With the numbers that he is putting up, he could get quite expensive in arbitration. In 2014, Frazier is truly pacing third basemen across MLB: 2nd in WAR (2.7), 1st in wRC+ (139), 1st in wOBA (.377), 1st in slugging percentage (.517, only player over .500), 1st in OPS (.866), 2nd in home runs (16, Josh Donaldson leads with 17), and 1st in stolen bases (7). While some may think it is a mirage, Frazier’s sophomore season seems to be the regression from the norm. His batting average (.273) is the same as it was in his rookie season, his slugging percentage is similar to what it was in his rookie season (.498 in 2012 and .517 entering play today), and his BABIP is just .304, closer to league average than being responsible for inflating his overall numbers. While the HR/FB is very high (21.1 percent), Frazier’s line-drive, ground-ball, and fly-ball rates are each in line with his career norms, the ball is just leaving the yard at a much higher rate.

While there could be some regression in home runs, which would lead to more fly-balls and lower overall production, it is atypical for balls to stay in the yard in the warmer months in Cincinnati, much less many other ballparks across MLB. At 28, Frazier is in his prime and the production seems legitimate.

With right-handed power being advantageous with both Joey Votto and Jay Bruce batting left-handed in the middle of the order, a productive Todd Frazier has tremendous value for Cincinnati. The cost of pitching on the open market makes it very unlikely that the Reds can afford to keep any one of the trio of Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, and Mike Leake after the 2015 season, which makes the ability to create runs offensively that much more valuable going forward for Cincinnati. The Reds need Todd Frazier and they need him beyond 2017. Now is the time to invest in the Frank Sinatra loving, Toms River, New Jersey star, as the club can’t afford to go to arbitration with him as he continues to develop offensively.