Saturday, July 13, 2013

I am sorry I don’t have time
today to do a better preview for Mont Ventoux. But here are the basics:

Stage 15 on the map

The longest stage of the
race will end on top of the barren landscape of the famed Mont Ventoux. Stage
15 is 242.5 kms long. The first 220k are mostly flat, but the stage ends with
the 20k climb up Mont Ventoux, topping out at 1912 meters.

The intermediate sprint
point comes at km 208, so the sprinters’ teams may want to keep it lively. The
sprinters were shut out of the points on stage 14 because of the size of the
escape group, and the fact that they lasted to the finish. But knowing that the
stage battle will go to the climbers, the sprinters could also sit back and let
the GC contenders’ teams do the work at the front of the peloton all day.

Stage 15 profile

Profile of Mont Ventoux

The climb up Mont Ventoux is
20.8k long with an average gradient of 7.5%. If a break gets away, the climbers
will want to catch them on or before the climb.

The climb has broken men--and
even worse. Tom Simpson died after climbing Ventoux in 1967. In 1970 Eddie
Merckx had to get oxygen to recover from exhaustion on Mont Ventoux.

By the top of the long
climb, only the elite will be left to fight for the stage win. Some may plan to
attack Chris Froome to chip away at his lead. Froome may want to rev his engine
and go for the win to demoralize his competitors.

Lance Armstrong put the hurt
on Jan Ullrich on Mont Ventoux in 2000 when he rode to that well-remembered finish
with Marco Pantani.

Finally, Ventoux comes on
Bastille Day. A few Frenchmen will definitely have designs on this stage.
Pierre Rolland, for one, would love to add a Tour De France Bastille Day win on
this renowned mountain to his palmares.

MY PICK:Nairo
Quintana. The young Colombian climber is the last Movistar rider to remain
in the top ten overall. He is also in a battle with Michal Kwiatkowski for the
white jersey, and is a great climber. He does not have to wait to lead Valverde
around anymore, so he is free to go for it.

Friday, July 12, 2013

Stage 14 takes the race further
southeast, from Saint-Pourcain-sur-Sioule to Lyon, in the Rhône-Alpes. On the
way are seven categorized climbs, none of which is above a cat-3. It will be a
kind of warm-up for the riders’ legs as they get ready to move south on Sunday
for the finish on top of the bald pate of Mont Ventoux.

Many riders are going to
look to get into a breakaway tomorrow. All that rolling up and down, even
though no climb by itself is anything particularly challenging, will tire out
the pure sprinters’ legs. It is difficult to say who will chase, and how hard.

The finish city of Lyon

I see the cat-3 climb of the
Col du Pilon at km 126 as a good place for a long distance attack. The three
cat-4’s in the final 30k do not look like exceptional break points to me.

It is very possible that
some sprinters will make it to a bunch sprint, but there will be some very
motivated riders trying hard on Saturday, on one of those medium-ish stages
that don’t favor the big climbers or the flat sprinters.

Stage 14 profile

Peter Sagan is one who should
like the look of this stage. It’s got the type of profile that suggests a
strong rider with a fast finish will probably leave flat sprinters behind.

Classics specialists will
also have this stage on their radar. Besides Sagan, Sylvain Chavanel, Juan
Antonio Flecha, Simon Gerrans, Michael Albasini, Lars Bak, John Degenkolb, and Jan
Bakelants are some of the names that come to mind for stage 14.

Maybe Movistar will try
something in an effort to make up for their horrible display on Friday. Their
team is full of riders who could normally excel on a stage like this. But with
Mont Ventoux looming the next day, most of the GC contenders would probably
prefer to save their energy for Sunday’s climb.

More good weather is expected
on Saturday, around 80 f and sunny.

MY PICK:Peter Sagan

UNDERDOG PICK: Not really an underdog, but it would be interesting
to see Michal Kwiatkowski try to
gain some time on his rivals.

In a pre-race interview
today, Mark Cavendish was full of praise for Marcel Kittel. He said the
German—who has won three stages here already—is the best sprinter at the Tour
right now. I am paraphrasing, but Cav also suggested that Kittel has
established himself as one of the best sprinters in the world, and that this
Tour might mark a sort of changing of the guard. “It’s the cycle of life,” he
said.It was strange to hear the
28-year-old speaking as though Kittel were part of a “new generation” of
cyclists coming up who could be supplanting him as the fastest in the world.

Stage 13 continues to the southeast

As I mentioned yesterday,
Team Sky lost Edvald Boasson Hagen to the big crash that happened with about
2.6k to go on stage 12. That is the second important cog in their wheel to be
forced to abandon the race (Kiryienka missed the time cut in stage 9). Boasson
suffered a broken bone in his shoulder when he went down hard as riders crashed
in front of him and he could do nothing to stop his bike from hitting the
pile-up and throwing him to the ground. With Kennaugh and Thomas riding out
their own injuries, Chris Froome will have to get the best out of the remainder
of his team to keep him protected and help him conquer the Alps next week.

The little hill that pops up
in the last 10k of the stage is reported to be insignificant. The sprinters
should be able to control the finish. Wind in the wide-open stretches may be a
big factor today.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Stage 13 is another flat,
southeasterly route, that will take the riders from Tours to
Saint-Amand-Montrond over 173 kilometers. On the way they will top one
category-four climb, but the more important hill will be the uncategorized one
that comes just a few kms before the finish. A strong puncheur may try an attack there. The sprinters teams will again
work to get their men into a bunch sprint.

Stage 13 Profile

Stage 13 continues southeast

Marcel Kittel now has three
stage wins and is looking like the fastest man to beat in this year’s sprint
stages. Peter Sagan has got a stranglehold on the green jersey, but would
surely like another stage win.

André Greipel’s team was blown to pieces in the
late stage-11 crash, and Mark Cavendish has not had enough good lead-outs to
show his best stuff.

I can’t find specs on that
little hill at the end, but its descent looks like it could be steep and maybe
technical, though it can’t be more than a kilometer long or so.

The last 5k are
pancake flat to the finish line. I think the sprinters’ teams will arrive there
in charge, up front, and prevent others from coming around.

That hill could possibly spoil
some sprinters’ hopes at the end, but we will have to see what kind of effect
it really has when they get there.

I would think it is a good launch pad for
Peter Sagan, or maybe Juan Antonio Flecha or Sylvain Chavanel will have another
go. But an attack on a small slope like that will not have much opportunity to
build a big lead for the flat run in to the finish.

Not everyone agrees about
who was at fault in the Mark Cavendish-Tom Veelers crash incident the other
day. As you know, Cav paid a price already when someone threw urine at him
during the time trial on Wednesday. Despite the Tour De France race judges’
ruling, Mark Cavendish has been disinvited to the Boxmeer Classic bike race
later this month. A published quote from the race organizer displayed strong
feelings against the Manxman.

No one who could threaten
the overall standings is in the break. The highest placed rider in the break is
Manuele Mori at about 50 minutes back.

The GC riders will look at
this as a rest day, while the sprinters’ teams will want to chase down the
break and set up a bunch sprint finish.

The riders have a nice cross
tailwind helping them down the road, which gives the GC guys an even easier
day.

Stage 12 route

km42: The lead maxes out
around 9:00.

-125k: The gap to the
peloton is 7:21.

-115k: the lead is 6:39.

-113.6k crash, Kadri, Geniez:
Kadri goes over the handlebars, his bike bounces off the road and spins up into
the air, narrowly missing an Orica GreenEdge rider on the right (Michael
Albasini I think).

-100k: The gap is now 6:20
as the riders have just gone through the feed zone.

-99k: Crash: Smukulis.

-94k: Bike change, Andy
Schleck.

EBH (Boasson Hagen), bike
change.

-85k: The lead is 5:34 now.

The tailwind has the race
going ten minutes ahead of the fastest expected time.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

The stage 11 individual time
trial shook up the overall standings on Wednesday, mostly in Chris Froome’s
favor. Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is trailing Froome by 3:25 in second
place. Bauke Mollema of Belkin retained third place, and now trails Froome by
3:37. Froome has a comfortable buffer now, going into the next few stages. The
GC won’t get another real shake up until stage 15 to the stark summit of Mont
Ventoux.

With a fifth place finish in
the TT, young Michal Kwiatkowski, Omega Pharma-Quickstep’s young Polish talent,
moved himself well up in the standings from thirteenth overall to seventh. He
also reclaimed the white jersey off the back of Movistar’s Nairo Quintana, and
now leads the Colombian in that competition by :34. Quintana dropped one spot
from seventh to eighth today. Roman Bardet the rider in third place among young
riders, trails Kwiatkowski by 6:53. It really looks like a two-man duel for the
white jersey from here on.

Stage 12 cuts southeast to Tours

Another Movistar talent, Rui
Costa climbed from tenth to ninth overall. The new top-ten is rounded out by
Jean-Christophe Peraud of Ag2R, whose top-20 finish in the TT was good enough
to move him up from 14th to tenth. Team Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez
and Garmin’s Dan Martin dropped out of the top ten.

Omega Pharma-Quickstep was
the best team of the day in the TT, with Tony Martin, Michal Kwiatkowski and
Sylvain Chavanel all finishing inside the top ten.

Movistar retains the lead in
the overall team competition.

Stage 12 Profile

Weather is expected to be
28c (82f) and sunny for stage 12.

Stage 12 is a 218-kilometer
mostly flat run from Fougeres to Tours. It is the first of three consecutive
stages that cut southeast across France toward the Tour’s rendezvous with the
Alps.

The sprinters will do their
best to force a bunch sprint finish. Marcel Kittel of Argos Shimano was the
first to score two stage wins, but Peter Sagan is holding on to a comfortable
lead in the green jersey competition. Mark Cavendish and André Greipel will
work to get their lead-out trains firing on all cylinders to set them up for a
shot at the stage win.

MY PICK: I am going with Mark Cavendish for stage 12. I am
counting on him coming back from the stage 11 urine-tossing incident full of
fire and eager to prove something.

The course is 20.5 miles
long, or 33k. The intermediate split points are at km 9.5 and km 22.

182 riders will take the
start today.

Svein Tuft set an early fast time at the second intermediate checkpoint
of 25:35.

Tuft finishes with the
currently fastest time of 38:04.

Two-time World TT Champion, Tony
Martin is on the course. He sets a
new fastest time at the 2nd INT of 24:42.

Jeremy Roy finishes at 38:12, currently second.

Thomas De Gendt comes in with a very good time of 37:30, and takes the
lead from Tuft.

Stage 11 Profile

*Tony Martin comes in to the finish, and he has set the new best time at
36:29. That is an average speed of 54.271 kph. That will be the standard to
beat for some time. Winds are picking up a bit, and may cause trouble for the
later starters.

A report is in that
spectators have thrown urine at Mark Cavendish on the course. That is shameful,
despicable and dangerous. I hope they catch whoever had the tiny brain to
conceive that assault. I know what their punishment should be, too.

Morons aside, let’s get back
to the race:

The stage 11 ITT route

Jonathan Castroviejo is a rider I singled out
for a good time today. He passes the first INT at km 9.5 with a time of 10:51.
That is :30 slower than Martin’s time there.

Castroviejo is fifth at the
2nd INT. He finishes 1:52 off the pace.

Edvald Boasson Hagen would be a good prospect for this course, but Team
Sky have been told to save energy for Froome in the stages ahead. This is
always a consideration. With the next high mountain stage not coming until
Sunday, I thought Boasson Hagen would have been set loose today, but I guess
not. EBH comes in almost four minutes off the pace.

The current leaders are:

1.Tony Martin
36:29

2.Thomas De Gendt
+1:01

3.Svein Tuft 1:35

4.Jeremy Roy 1:43

5.Jonathan
Castroviejo 1:52

Tom Dumoulin of Argos Shimano is fifth fastest at the 2nd
INT.

Tejay Van Garderen seems to have rediscovered his strength. He is second
fastest at the 1st INT, just 18 seconds slower than Martin.

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

The race of truth arrives to
test the riders’ strength against the clock. The stage-11 time trial on the scenic
island of Mont Saint-Michel is the first of two TT’s that measure just over
30k. The next one comes on stage 17 and contains two category-2 climbs. This 33k
TT however, is relatively flat, and will favor a somewhat different class of
favorites.

the majestic Mont Saint-Michel

We viewers get to enjoy
another picturesque day as the Tour De France visits Mont Saint-Michel, but the
riders will be too busy eating up the road to enjoy the scenery. Some
rearranging of the General Classification will be on the menu.

Omega Pharma’s time trial
master, Tony Martin, who endured a concussion, a bruised lung, and a battered
body in a stage-1 crash, seems to be riding better and surely will give the TT
his all. The GC favorites will be racing hard to limit their losses to—or gain
time on—Chris Froome, who excels against the clock. But many very good time
trial riders are here to contest this stage.

Stage 11 ITT profile

Besides Martin and Froome,
strong performances can be expected from the likes of Michal Kwiatkowski, and
Sylvain Chavanel. In fact Omega Pharma-Quickstep have several good TT cards to
play on stage 11; Peter Velits and Niki Terpstra are also talented against the
clock. I would expect a very high finish for Chavanel.

Several top GC riders like
Cadel Evans, Alberto Contador and Tejay Van Garderen have all been excellent at
the TT, but each one’s form has come into question. I think Contador and Evans
can pull out good rides on Wednesday, but Tejay doesn’t seem to be firing on
all cylinders. I would expect fast times by Jean-Christophe Peraud, Rui Costa,
and Bauke Mollema, and probably Alejandro Valverde. All have shown great form
lately.

The time trial route

Besides the GC guys, good
time trial contenders include Lieuwe Westra, Tom Dumoulin, Lars Boom, Svein
Tuft, Michael Rogers, Blel Kadri, and more. I have only named one Spaniard so
far, but I like one of Movistar’s young talents as a possible spoiler for Tony
Martin: 26-year old Jonathan Castroviejo. He has showed excellent results in
time trials like these. I see him in the top five at least.

Monday, July 8, 2013

The General Classification
contenders will see only two significant challenges in the coming week before
the next rest day. Even the mountain jersey hunters will have a few days off. In
fact, the next four stages only include a combined total of 2 available
mountain points.

The next test for the GC
riders comes with the stage-11 time trial from Avranches to Mont Saint-Michel
on Wednesday. After that, the next test is the stage-15 mountaintop finish on
Mont Ventoux.

The brief but potent sojourn
into the Pyrenees created a tense pecking order among the contenders, and now
it is time to let the fast men grab some limelight again. The sprinters will
have several opportunities in the coming week to stretch their legs on some
flat terrain. Stages 10, 12, 13, and possibly 14 could all end with bunch
sprints. But let’s take them one at a time.

Stage 10 on the map

The peloton have taken the
longest transfer of the race from yesterday’s stage 9 finish in the Pyrenees, all
the way up to the Loire-Atlantique department in the Pays-de-la-Loire region in
the northwest for stage 10. Tuesday’s stage 10 from Saint-Gildas-des-Bois to
Saint-Malo is 197 kilometers of relatively flat roads traveling north through
Brittany. Along the way, the views should continue to be spectacular.

The finish town of Saint-Malo
is an intriguing walled city on the English Channel with much history. An old
stronghold of French corsairs and pirates, Saint-Malo’s fortifications endured
one of the bitterest battles following the Normandy invasion in the Second
World War. The Tour De France will host its own battle there on Tuesday between
the sprinters who have come to claim their booty.

Stage 10 Profile

The intermediate sprint
point comes at kilometer 127.5, and the only categorized climb of the day is a
category-4 veritable bump in the road 55k before the finish. Peter Sagan has
been fortifying his lead in the green jersey competition and will look to
increase that lead on Tuesday. Mark Cavendish, André Greipel, Marcel Kittel and
others will have something to say about that.

Unfortunately for all the
sprinters, Sagan’s current lead in that competition will be unassailable on
Tuesday, as he holds a 93-point lead over second-place Greipel. Sagan will
definitely be in green again for the next stage unless he is out of the race
for some reason. In fact it does not seem likely that any of the jerseys will
change hands on Tuesday.

Stage 10 final kms to the finish

MY PICK: André
Greipel. His lead-out train is strong and organized, and he will be motivated
to narrow the margin between himself and Peter Sagan.

Nine stages down, twelve to
go.Chris Froome is where we
expected he would be at the first rest day: in charge, although his team has
showed serious kinks in the armor. We have a general idea of who the real contenders
will be for the overall classification, as well as the other jersey
competitions. And we have seen who has not brought their best game to the race.
The current jersey holders are all good contenders to be wearing those jerseys
come Paris. Two more weeks of testing roads stand between them and the Champs
Elysees first.

The Orica GreenEdge bus stuck under the stage-1 gantry

The first nine stages added
up to one of the most thrilling Tour openings in recent memory. Corsica hosted
a beautiful start, and all of Southern France delivered on compelling action.
It has been very competitive, full of surprises, several lead changes, elation
and deflation, hot sun, some records broken and others neared, tears and
laughs, crashes, sacrifices, failure and success. It is the Tour De France.

Looking back at some of the
fascinating events and protagonists of the first nine stages I will just pick a
few to discuss briefly:

First of all, Chris Froome: He stayed out of trouble
for seven days, and then dominated the first mountain stage. He then responded
to every attack thrown at him in the second mountain stage. The only problem
for Chris “Vroom” was his team. The
normally robust Sky squad showed the effects of the heat and physical damage
they have suffered with a terrible showing on stage 9. Worse, Froome’s most
reliable Sherpa, the Tasmanian Richie Porte, hit the wall on Sunday, losing
eighteen minutes, and dropping way, way out of podium contention (He dropped
from 2nd overall to 33rd). The stage 11 time trial on
Wednesday will give Sky another chance to shine.

Alejandro Valverde: He is comfortably sitting in the seat vacated by
Richie Porte, second overall, and his Movistar team sent a very powerful
message to Chris Froome and the rest of the world that they are a bad-ass force
to be reckoned with, and that Sky are maybe not so invincible after all. It was
the best refreshment after all the clamor about Froome possibly running away
with the maillot jaune like Wiggo last year and making for a dull race. No
dullness here.

Valverde also enjoys a
top-notch support squad, each one of which is a high talent in his own right. And
Valverde is not as bad a time trialer as many are making him out to be. On a
flat course he may be not too dissimilar from the three riders behind him on
GC. I would not be surprised if there is very little change in the top 5 after
the TT.

Alberto Contador: “el pistolero” has not been at his best so far, but obviously this
bears frequent repeating: He gets better over the course of a tour. He hasn’t
sounded as confident in the last couple of days as he did before the race, but
riders find many ways to cozen their foes and the press. Contador is still
perfectly placed to stay in contention for a podium spot—at least. It may be
that he will not rediscover that top form, but I would never count the
five-time grand tour winner out. Plus he has a high-caliber firing squad of
support that includes Roman Kreuziger and Mick Rogers.

Cadel Evans
The 2011 Tour champ looked a little shaky for a while there, but he stepped up
and stayed with the leaders all the way to the stage 9 finish, and picked himself
up from 23rd to 16th. Unfortunately the time he lost on
stage 8 is probably enough to keep him from hoping for anything above a
top-five finish. Still, he recovers as well as any Tour champion I’ve ever seen
and if he is one of the few remaining in the last mountainous week, he could
still net a high spot.

J-Rod:
Katusha’s diminutive torque-thrower Joaquim Rodriguez has not yet tasted the
tastiest stages for his mountain goat legs. But he stayed with the front group
through the treacherous ninth stage, and more importantly stayed with them all
the way through the 30k descent and flat finish. He could have a surprising TT
and possibly remain a legitimate podium candidate, at least. Though TT’s are
not purito’s forte, so he will have to be patient until stage 15, when the Mont
Ventoux finish will beckon for the climbers’ return.

Everybody seems to be
calling Bauke Mollema a “surprise”.
I do not find anything surprising about the good-going of the Dutch rider for
Team Belkin. I mentioned in my TDF race preview several stage races in which he
made top-5 this year, including finishing second at the TDF warm-up race, the
Tour de Suisse. He has showed good TT results, and continues to climb with the
best. Mollema could be just coming into his own now, and although his past
Tours De France have not been exceptional, this year does seem to offer him a
good opportunity to show what he can do.

The other important riders I
want to discuss are the young riders.

Nairo Quintana has been putting on the kind of show that we have come to cherish about
him. He rides with calm composure and then periodically, at will, puts in some
serious damaging attacks. He reminds me of Contador a few years ago, the way he
can attack and come back, and attack and attack and attack. He is one of the
most entertaining riders of this year’s race, and a very good bet to win the
white jersey now.

Thibaut Pinot: the young French hope was in close contention for white jerseys at
stage races all season long. He was also runner-up in two mountain jersey
competitions, and rode a powerful Tour de Suisse right before the Tour De
France, finishing fourth overall, sixth on points, and 2nd in the
KOM. Suddenly, Pinot’s prospects for this Tour are dwindling fast. He was 10th
overall last year and 2nd in the young rider’s competition, despite
having revealed a serious handicap: he fears descending. How he dealt with it
last year, I don’t know, but if he does not find a way to deal with it, then he
will never be the grand tour contender his team and his country are hoping for.

Pinot lost a devastating 25
minutes yesterday on stage 9. At the finish he made some damning remarks like,
“I cracked on the descent… I'm afraid of speed. It's a phobia,” and “When I saw that I was not able to
stay on the wheel of a rider like Mark Cavendish on the descent of a mountain
pass, I asked myself: ‘What am I doing on the Tour?' I received the clear
response that I have nothing to do here."
He continued, ”I don't know if I will be able to get over this trauma.” We
knew he was not a great descender, but this is an issue that should not be
rearing its ugly head during the Tour De France. At least Sunday’s revelations
will have to inspire FDJ to work on Pinot’s problem, either with training or
psychological therapy, or whatever they can come up with to dispel his “fear of
speed”.

Michal Kwiatkowski recovered on stage 9 to climb back up to 13th overall. His
talent is big and he is showing the heart to capitalize on it. The TT’s might
be his friend as he fights to climb higher in the standings, and actively take
on Quintana for the white jersey. I cannot wait to see how he goes for the next
two weeks.