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It is the time of year when we Pitt fans spend way too much time and energy on an issue with questions attached that truthfully won’t be answered for another two or three years. Recruiting. Let’s talk about that and by ‘recruiting’ I mean high school recruiting – not transfers which are a different subject altogether.

One of the things Pitt fans love to do is point to a recruit’s “offers” as proof that the current crop of recruits are better or worse than other crops of recruits. We are hearing that crowed from the mountaintop this season with our 2018 class being filled with only three star kids from side to side (I’d say top to bottom but they are all the same star ranking).

I have written extensively about the smoke and mirrors surrounding recruits stating what offers they have received from what schools. My advice – take almost everything with a grain of salt and here’s why. A “scholarship offer” comes in a singular formal letter from the university’s head coach to the player and his parents definitely offering a scholarship in return for the student/athlete’s athletic talents and academic work.

What an offer is not is the hundreds of letters schools send out or the hundreds of phone calls and texts the football staff generates saying ‘We want you to play for the University of XXXX” Those contacts are not worth the paper they are printed on.

Below is an example of a ‘formal’ scholarship offer and only a limited amount of these go out from any individual school – as opposed to hundreds of ‘so-called offers’ a school generates. Pitt had well over 200 ‘offers’ out according to Rivals and you know they weren’t offering all 200+ kids scholarships. A good rule of thumb with this? if Pitt offers 5* players out on the West Coast you know they are just doing it to see Pitt listed on these blue chip kids’ offer sheets… it is an advertisement as it were.

Notice the phrase “I want to formally extend a scholarship offer to you“. If that ain’t in the correspondence a HS player receives it truly is not a scholarship offer.

Put this another way – I have a good friend down here in Maryland who is a true bona-fide legend in Maryland HS football coaching. He and I talked about this issue this same time last year and he told me that almost every player he had who had any contact at all with a D1 school, even if it was an invitation to an on-campus football camp, told the recruiting site scouts that those were valid offers to play ball at those schools.

When the truth is that very few HS players get D1 scholarship offers at all… and he sent a bunch of kids to D1, D2 and D3 schools over his 43 year Maryland Hall of Fame coaching career. He told me he laughs when he sees 3* kids with 20, 25 Power Five offers.

So these offers you see listed on the recruiting websites also cannot be verified through the universities themselves because the NCAA strictly forbids any institution to discuss HS players at all but especially ones they are actively recruiting.

The offers can’t be 100% verified by the recruiting sites either, and I know they work very hard to be accurate, as they depend on the information the players and the players’ parents supply them – and many times the parents are complicit in that they want their son to look more valuable as a recruit with the more D1 offers he has listed on the three recruiting sites.

All that said, I do think that most of the offers from the bigger schools can at least be taken into account if one wants to do that to justify a well sought after kid’s talents. I personally don’t do that for the above reasons but help yourself – and in doing so let’s take a look at a website that breaks down the listed ‘offers’ and then ranks schools’ recruiting classes based on that.

A new website –www.rankbyoffers.com – does just this and it is interesting to see if the offers change the recruiting sites’ team rankings all that much. From reading all the posts on here, other blogs and message boards apparently in Pitt fans minds it does.

For our 2017 recruiting class Rivals.com ranked Pitt #38th nationally. Not too shabby but not all that great either. Here is what Pitt was ranked according to offers received:

You can see that there is a minimal difference between the ranks based on the stars awarded at 38th and the offers at 36th.

For this 2018 class it is much the same but skewed in the ‘offers’ favor a bit more. As of today Rivals.com has our current class at 50th which pretty much sucks. The offers tabulations shows Pitt residing at 41st – better but not where most Pitt fans would think the way they pump up our recruits’ offers.

Now to break this down even further here are the individual players’ who had more than five FBS offers rankings:

RANK

PLAYER NAME

FBS OFFERS

TOP 25 OFFERS

OFFER POINTS

283

Jake Kradel

25

2

1,287.92

312

Marquis Williams

21

3

1,217.64

358

Matt Alaimo

19

2

1,119.98

527

Blake Zubovic

15

1

845.10

592

Judson Tallandier

14

1

765.23

705

Devin Danielson

12

1

654.12

835

David Green

12

0

559.93

855

John Morgan

10

1

543.68

952

Chase Brown

9

0

483.69

1,007

Wendell Davis

10

0

445.91

1,016

Nick Patti

12

0

440.82

1,325

Cameron O’Neil

6

0

290.18

So our highest ranked recruit this year, 3* OL Jake Kradel, is still only the 283rd best player in the HS recruiting pool according to the offers he received.. but Rivals.com doesn’t have him ranked in their Top 300 at all. (I like him as a Panther though – he’ll be good in two or three years.)

What is scary also is that of all 12 of Pitt’s recruits who had over five FBS offers the average ranking of those 12 kids is #730.

Now we can parse recruiting even more in the ‘stars’ numerical sense by looking at the ‘ratings’ that in Pitt’s case span from the three stars’ 5.3 (2* is 5.4) to the three stars’ 5.7 (4* is 5.8). Here is an example:

Here you see what I mean above – we have ten players with 5.7 ratings, which is pretty good if all you have are 3* kids I guess. On the other end of our particular 3* spectrum we also have four kids who are rated 5.5; again – .1 away from having two stars:

Really, all of this is parsing recruiting info and numbers to the nth degree – the bottom line with this years class is that we didn’t pull in any 4* or 5* Blue-Chip recruits and that is a real problem. When that happens, and we have gotten only three 4* kids over the last two classes (all in ’17), is when Pitt fans default to sifting through what ‘offers’ our recruits received to try to make things appear better than they really are.

Every successful Pitt season in modern history we have had numerous 4* kids in the starting lineup. DW’s teams were shot through with them. Narduzzi’s first two eight win seasons had Peterman, Dorian Johnson, Boyd, Bisnowaty, Bookser, Hall, KK Smith, Grigsby and Whitehead in the starting lineups at one point or another- all 4* kids and all contributed very well over their careers.

We know 3* and 2* kids can play above their star rankings, some even reach stardom – but the reality is that more blue chip 4* and 5* kids you have out on the field the better the chances are that you’ll have sustained solid play and good winning seasons.

In my opinion it is a real problem that this class has been shut out of those blue chippers so far – and unless we see more transfers out, dismissals or players leaving the program we are pretty close to maxed out in scholarship now for this class.

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Reed Kohberger
Retired Coast Guard Officer with a lot of time on his hands and working a hobby that he enjoys and is actually free - writing.... on all different sorts of things but mostly Pitt football. You can see my more public articles and essays at WWW.pittblather.com, reedkohberger.wordpress.com and the new Pitt football blog www.pittpov.com.

PublishedDecember 23, 2017December 29, 2017

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194 thoughts on “2018’s Recruit Rankings in Detail”

Well Written Article. I agree with the theme and it is downright scary. I agree Potato Sack was blah but he could recruit lineman and some skilled guys. I don’t see the same gets with Narduzzi’s Staff. It is all guesses at this point but I see way more Nature than Nurture on the way to Championships and 9/10 win seasons.

Great analysis Reed and lyke most things in life the truth probably lies somewhere in between the various rankings.. As an optimist I want and choose to believe that the recruiting class is iñ that 37th range which is suggested based on the offers received by the players, while others feel that the 50th ranking per Rivals is more accurate.

A 37-40th ranking after the regression in the win column this year I would consider reasonable and in my hopefully realistic world Pitt improves next year into the 20-25th team ranking at the end of the year, get a recruitment class in the 30th place range and make incremental improvements that way. I think the teams recruiting will lag behind team rankings until the attendance dilemma is solved. Hail to Pitt and Merry Christmas to Reed and one and all in the POV family !

I realize Reed is not referring to any transfers but only actual recruits.
Wonder how the USC fans felt a few years back when the nations #1 rated QB recruit, a 5* recruit, signed a LOI to play for SC? Max Browne really lit up the place, as we also witnessed!
Oh well. You win some and you lose some. :>)

I was really hoping the hire of Charlie Partridge would help this recruiting cycle in Florida. As we know he was the head coach at FAU for 3 years. Look at what Lane Kiffin did this year at that school with CP’s 3 year stock pile of recruits. The jury is still out on Kiffin, but Charlie sure left him a well stocked cupboard to work with.

Lane brought in a lot of talent. Charlie was a disaster as a HC there. Kiffin won bc of Kiffin not Charlie’s leftovers. Look at his 3 year record. Kiffin could go undefeated next year. He is prolific and is staying there.

Lane brought in a bunch of troubled cast offs from power 5 schools so he could win immediately. Including Taleni who would have started for us. The admin there has clearly decided that it wants to be a football school. Whether you believe that’s right or wrong is open to debate, but he sure did make a splash.

Kam Carter leaving One power 5 program and then winding up at Pitt is very different than 6 or 8 guys who were power 5 talents playing for FAU, which didn’t even play one power 5 school. I suppose that he deserves credit for hauling in the cast offs, who had nowhere else to go. Its pretty easy to convince guys facing their last chance to come to any Florida school. Again, maybe that win at all costs attitude is commendable, maybe not, depending on your perspective.

To me, if Kiffin doesn’t win 9 games this past year, he’s a failure. He had players far superior to those on the opposing teams. Also his running up the score on Akron was classless. No need to comment, Mark, I know how you feel about that. “Put on your big boy pants, blah blah blah. Narduzzi would have won 3 games there, blah blah blah.”

Kiffin brings swagger, an edge. When you play with an edge you will beat those that don’t. Football is a game of emotion. Give players confidence and their 2 stars goes to 4 stars.

Averaging 3 stars is not terrible. There were 10 teams in the top 50 this year that averaged under 3.0 stars. They just had more commits. In addition, there were 8 teams that were less than 3.1 and at least 3.0. Pitt was in that group. In totality, by the numbers we were just fine. And it is not over.

Two more power walk on offers from Pitt, Devon Davis coming from Lackawanna CC and originally from Ohio a big 6’3″ 330 lbs at the center/guard position. looks like he was Brown’s roommate at LCC and will be Brown’s roommate at Pitt come January. Another big body for the offensive line competition come spring practice.

The other POW offer was to Isaiah McNair a WR/CB from Quaker Valley the State 3A champs. A very quick fast sprinter who also plays track. The only problem with McNair according to PSN is that he hasn’t accepted the Pitt offer and wait through January to see if any other offers are forthcoming.—-For all you recruiting rankings naysayers can you name the current 4 walk ons on this Pitt roster that have earned a scholarship? Please no looking over at PSN that has the answer listed.

jrn, at this point Narduzzi and staff are just getting bodies on the roster. These are not targeted players but kids who see an opportunity to say they played D1 ball and the staff can get players at no cost. CC players are the HS kids who were unranked by the recruiting sites and had no FBS offers.

Yes, some walk on players excellent as our George Aston has done, but in the main they are kids to have in practices and scout team fillers.

Some schools have dedicated and highly successful walk on programs such as Wisconsin:

But that program is part and parcel of how Wisconsin runs their football business and is well funded by donors who give specifically to that part of the athletic department. BTW -that article explains very well how a program like Wiconsin can win so many games and be so consistent in doing so with so many 3* recruits (as Dokish referenced when he wrote his apologist article for Pitt not getting any 4* recruits).

They have had no less than 7 wins since 2001 and have averaged 10 wins per over the last 16 years. That is what continuity and admin support can do for a program.

Again, 10 of these recruits were 0.1 points away from being four stars. You’d be looking at all this completely different if an extra star was attached. I like how this class is pretty much all going to be redshirted, which is great for building depth.

Wisconsin has also averaged those wins against one of the historically weakest power 5 schedules in the country. The tried and true formula of 3-4 easy( and I mean easy) non cons, and the usual 4 BiG cupcakes. Barry learned early that the JoePa way works. Didn’t start playing one good team till they were established.
Adequate coaching + good scheduling + 3* equal 8-9 wins on regular basis.

Pitt would do that in a second if we could get an average of 10 wins per season.

The point was that UW has a great established walk on program that works… And does more with less when it comes to recruiting 3* players. Adequate coaching? Wisconsin has one of the best coaching staffs in the country.

Pitt on the other hand needs as many blue chip recruits they can get to be successful with any sort of consistency.

I really don’t get the constant need by Pitt fans to run down Paul Chryst even after he’s been gone for three years…and done well at his new job. Why is necessary when he’s proven himself to be a highly successful HC there?

Regardless of who they play a 33-7 record with two bowl wins and a berth in the Orange bowl this year is a damn good job.

SOME Pitt fans Reed. Folks that trashed him for his sideline demeanor/projected energy level then are now lamenting that we aren’t bringing in “the big palookas upfront” under the HCPN. I liked him and thought he did a nice job cleaning house – although there was one more House I would have liked to have seen him clean.

BTW, just for the sake of accuracy, one of Wisconsin’s OOC cupcakes in 2017 was FAU, the institution that now for some unknown reason Upitt is currently singing his praises about. So Kiffin & FAU DID play one power five school this season (& lost badly).

Yes, Lane Kiffin did win 10 games this season, not 11 as Upitt reported, but really???? Some of those wins were against perennial powerhouses like, Bethune-Cookman, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, North Texas (Twice) & Florida International.

Then FAU defeats Akron in a minor bowl, to end up 10-3 and that’s good enough to crown Kiffin as a “winner” in D1 football on the national stage in Upitt’s mind? I guess it is.

Akron wasn’t even the MAC Champion! The Zips got throttled by the Toledo Rockets in the MAC Championship game this year.

So to refresh memories, just a few years ago, Upittbaseball was busy insulting Pitt for stooping down to the level of MAC insignificance by accepting abowl invite to play the ACTUAL MAC Champ in the Pizza Bowl that was held at Ford Field in Detroit.

Sounds like a double standard bucket of hogwash to me perpetrated by Upitt to fit his current scenario.

These are the facts. Now, I’m not condeming him for praising Lane Kiffin for his accomplishments at FAU this season, Good for Kiffin & FAU. I’m just putting Upitt’s current adulation into it’s proper perspective while wondering at the same time why Upitt is always so stingy in showering such praise on his own alma mater when it is warrented.

You have something to support this? “Wisconsin has also averaged those wins against one of the historically weakest power 5 schedules in the country.”

2017 was the exception for Wisconsin. They play the typical schedule for a P5 school. One P5 opponent and two cupcakes on the out of conference. It’s up to the B1G how the conference schedule plays out.

Also don’t do the usual BS about the weakness of the B1G West. Pitt has been very fortunate to have landed in the ACC Coastal.

You also need to take into account that Wisconsin plays one more conference game every year than the ACC teams do because of ND in the ACC scheduling mix.

Honestly the revisionism to support an agenda or counter-agenda on here.

Kiffin has got to be the most over-rated, over-talked-about coach in all of college fb.

I like our recruiting class so far, as most of you do. Could use another skill player/WR, LB, etc. Huff makes the valid point nestled into his comments above, some of you will never care anyway due to presuppositions, but it’s worth a look.

Lastly & most importantly, Merry Christmas to you all, blessings to you and your families!

We use the excuse that the WPA recruiting ground isn’t as fertile as back then but the truth is that DW went far afield to pull in good players. Wasn’t that the reason for Conklin and Partridge to be on staff? For those great southern kids?

In HCPN’s four recruiting classes he’s pulled in 14 FL kids (out of 80 recruits) and a grand total of one (1) is a 4* in RB Davis.

Absolutely agree Reed. I don’t expect Pitt to compete with the top ten, but we need four or five four stars a year to keep up. Two or three this year would make a world of difference. Those are the guys that can play right away and elevate the team overall. Guys like Boyd and Whitehead who make an immediate impact are required each year if you want to get better. Walt had Fitz, Wanny had Shady and Deon, Chryst had Boyd and Conner. Narduzzi had Whitehead, although he committed to Chryst. Pickett might have been the guy but they neglected to see it. Unlucky with Hamlin and Ford, but he needs to get those difference makers that help right away.

My point wasn’t a knock on Chryst by any means. Just saying that if you get all three things( and you must have all 3), then you can be very,very,successful. Jamie did it for years in B-ball, good coach, cupcakes, 3* , = lots of NCAAS = very happy fanbase(till it wasn’t)😭.

Lots to do today, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. Hope that the positives outweigh any hard times. Share your blessings.

Jamie got real lucky with DeJuan Blair, and Sam Young, otherwise there were a lot of 1 and 2 and done in the tourney which left people less than satisfied. The more success you have the more people want

Many of those people complaining about Jamies tourney record are singing a different tune now.

Pitt got Blair & Aaron Donald because Rivals and other such sites have no idea what they’re doing. They look at tape measures instead of the players. Both Blair & Donald dominated in HS. Especially Blair.

It was shown through this study that the likelihood of success in college and NFL draft increases with a player’s star ranking. Higher-star players are drafted with a higher probability and are selected earlier in the draft. Our study did not find any statistically significant evidence that the choice of a conference affects the probability of the draft. However, we found that playing for a school in a power conference generally results in a higher probability of being selected as an All-American.

Merry Christmas to Reed and all the POV’ers! I was going to say I’m signing off for a couple of days while we drive around and visit family, but I’ll probably sneak a peek now and then to see if we land any last minute 5-stars!!

Many of Penn State’s recruits are from Central or Eastern PA. Pitt has never done well there. Plus Erie given the branch campus. I dont see many from WPA. Raines was the biggest loss. Hence the focus out of state. I like Pitt’s focus out of state. No reason why a high percentage of recruits cant be from states like FL, GA, VA, MD, NJ and OH. I’ll take a 3 star from FL any day over a 3 star WPIAL kid.

You don’t win WITHOUT a stable full of three star recruits.
The four star recruits get tou to the next level to rub elbows with the elite programs.

News Flash! We ain’t ELITE. This is a solid group to add to the process of getting there though.

The true 4⭐️s like Keyshaw Camp, Damar Hamlin, AJ Davis, Paris Ford, Todd Sibley & Jerry Drake are in the mix to contribute for years to come. Next season is the true test for Narduzzi to peove he is on the right track.

Another winning season won’t be good enough. Next year we truly have to compete serioualy for the Coastal Division Crown or else the concerns wxpressed here about HCPN’s recruiting become more valid.

I’m beginning to feel like a dog chasing his tail on the POV. First we talked about how star and recruiting services differ from each other and how subjective they can be. Well at least until PITT didn’t land one 4 or 5* recruit.

I also remembering talk about how important offers are compared to stars. Yet every time PITT received a commitment from a kid with good offers they were poo pooed as being some sort of vague or veiled offer.

Now, I get that all the information we have on PITT’s recruiting to be true and accurate and I’m not disputing any of that. I’m just saying that when I read that PITT didn’t do well in recruiting in the state of PA I have to take a step back. We’re talking from Scranton to Philly to Erie and all points in between. Since when did PITT use these areas for their recruitment? Yes everyone once in a while they may get a young good players from way out east but it’s not a habit.

Fact is that the WPIAL experienced a down year (after a couple good ones) in 4 and 5* type of players. Also this is a supplemental type of class this year. Adding valuable depth and beefing up the lines. I agree that not landing Raines is the only miss for HCPN in the WPIAL this year.

…. and please don’t get me wrong, I wish PITT could get way more 4 and 5* players but if they are not in our back yard or and a legacy young man, it’s a tough task to ask. Comparing PITT against other schools is another false argument. Lastly, we have all agreed and talked about how the administration is not willing to compromise the school’s integrity by either the quality of player (grades) or by overspending on this football program. ike

Agree, Ike. Pitt flips Bentley from Kentucky, but he has three stars so he must be just an ordinary recruit. He has offers from Alabama, LSU, Georgia and Florida. I’m sure I’ll read on here those were “soft “offers.

Doc, Don’t get hopes up, schedule, kids moving on, and inexperience will have us hovering around .500. As long as one of the wins is vs PSU I can live with one more sub par year. Ya, I know, what an attitude, but I will take solace wherever.

Knowing that PA isnt where the recruits are and we generally cant compete in Central or Eastern PA without investing tons of money over the next 5 years, why dont we recruit and establish pipelines in NJ, MD, VA and OH. As well as southern states like GA and FL.

PA has been dying a slow death when it comes to elite prospects. But I agree, we should not let any 4 star from WPA escape the Nard Dog’s bite. But some kids just arent sold on Pitt and never will be.

Jurko’s heart was on ND. Raines I believe is only real loss since there was a chance. I dont see the Nitters landing many if any WPA recruits.

And that school recruits heavily out of state like we are starting to do. You have to.

Comparing players by their supposed 3 vs 4 star rating is, in and of itself, close to pointless. If that’s all the info. we have on the guys, then I suppose those stars are something which is sometimes better than nothing, for the sake of these msg. boards. But goodness….

Look, there are some fine players in this class. What I am saying is that you won’t win the Coastal, let alone the ACC without a good number of 4 star players. You need to get some every year. If the WPIAL is down, you need to get them somewhere else. WE can all point out how on an individual level, the stars can be wrong, but in the aggregate, the stars don’t lie and they do matter.

Recruiting. You could write a book about it but I am going to look at one small aspect of Paul Chrysts recruiting. Yes, he did find some diamonds in the rough like Conner and Henderson but overall it was bad. Defensively, brutal, no need to even discuss it on my mind.

It is said though he could recruit OL. Lets look at it:

1) Roberts – Nothing out of him.
2) Biz – Solid player, NFL draft pick.
3) Jones – Smith – Decent player overall. Probably would have been good if it were not for injuries. A shame.
4) Officier – Serviceable. A success.
5) Johnson – The best of the bunch (top 2 for sure). NFL draft pick.
6) Baker – Nothing.
7) Reese – Nothing.
8) Bookser – Serviceable. With another decent year will be considered a success.
9) Hayes – Nothing.

2 good players and Johnson would have been at PSU for sure, who knows about Biz. I seem to remember loosing a kid whose parent/s worked at PITT to PSU during that time (Miles D_____bach?) or something like that – not going to look it up :). Says a lot.
The fact (well, I will use the word fact loosely) is people say Narduzzi won 8 games with PC’s kids. I say he won 8 despite PC’s recruiting. Narduzzi won 8 games because he went and got Chaney/Canada. Chaney got Peterman, no Peterman, we don’t win 8 with Bertke or the guy that went with Chryst (H___brook?). If not for Canada, and the jet sweep, Henderson does nothing at all on offense, and Weah ends his career with no more than 30 catches due to the play action and fear of the jet sweep. In fact, I think what we saw in year 3, 5 wins, is what we would have seen in years 1 and 2, if Narduzzi hadn’t found a QB in Peterman and/or Chryst had stayed and played with his guys (Bertke and H-brook). You can blame Narduzzi for not finding a QB earlier but PC left him nothing for his first two years to give him time.

Reed, I love the blog, and have always liked all of your stuff, but I am a little puzzled. You have said that Narduzzi has not recruited enough OL, but he has recruited just as many if not more than Chryst. You never said that about Chryst.

I remember you not believing in star ranking at all and I seem to recall you using Chad Voytik as your case study. Opposingly, you said yourself that Patti looked legit, yet now you talk about PC having more 4‘s but never mention all of his 2 players. When I look back at PC’s classes the 4* players had a lot of “questionable” 4* players as did Wanny’s. I don’t say that in hindsight, at the time, people questioned if they were 4* – Like Bostick, Hale in the Wanny area, Chapman and Rippy in the Chryst era for example. In the Narduzzi era, the opposite is true. People seem to wonder why some guys aren’t 4*.

Offers – Offers have always been exaggerated. So they were exaggerated for Narduzzi, just like Chryst. Cancels each other out as far as I am concerned but if a guy has 10 power 5 offers I tend to believe 6 or 7 are legit, if a guy has three I tend to think 1 or 2 are legit. I will go with the guy with 10 offers as having a better chance of succeeding. I do know that we have got a lot of players that have said I am down to PITT and 3 or 4 other power conference teams and put it on social media (they wouldn’t do that if they didn’t have true offers, which seldom happened under Chryst).

Lastly, I do not miss the 4 or 5 players in each of PC’s classes that you knew had no chance of making it as soon as he came on board…the guys like a few mentioned above on the OL and other guys like Poker, Hez Trahan, Jamal Davis and Jaquam Davidson. Although at the time I thought for sure Jester Weah would do nothing so I was roved wrong for sure in that instance. Narduzzi, has very few of those guys in the last three classes.

Ok, one more thing, PC’s schedules were so much easier than Narduzzi’s in and out of conference. Not even close. Even ND was pretty average back then, not to mention Miami.

We will see how Narduzzi’s first 4 classes look compared to PC’s in about 4 years but as of now I think PC would have been lucky to win 24 games in his next four years at PITT if he had stayed.

At the end of the day, writing all of the above was a waste of time because if you want to show how bad PC’s recruiting was all you have to say is:

“He couldn’t recruit his own nephew when he is supposed to a offensive minded coach”. Actually, the kid never even really considered PITT, which was sad.

One can make a case that Biz was a Graham recruit and DoJo was lost to PSU before the sanctions hit. If some give Chryst credit for Whitehead, then it is only fair to bring up. That really taints the list if Biz and Johnson were removed.

I never said stars didn’t matter, and my take on Voytik was after I watched him in a bunch of open and full practices. I didn’t write one word on him prior to that.

Just as I haven’t written one word about Patti.

I also never said Narduzzi’s not getting enough OL, just that I’m not impressed by them.

Of course Keller Chryst didnt come to Pitt… He went to a better academic and better football school in Stanford. Geez, how many west coast recruits have ever come to Pitt?? That offer to him was a throw away and everyone knew it back then…except you obviously… You are really reaching lately.

I do not believe for one minute that just because a kid has 4* or 5*s he’s a lock to be a great player… What I have always said that the more blue chip recruits a team has the better chance they have for some of those kids to be the stars a team needs to win lots of games.

I never said you made comments about Voytik before you saw him. You made the comments after…I don’t see what that has to do with anything. My point is that after you saw him it was clear he was not a 4* star player (like his offers showed)…like many of Chryst’s 4‘s. That said, you do have to use something as a gauge, so if I see a guy with 3‘s and ten offers from DI schools vs a 4* with four I am going to consider them about even.

I believe you did say that Narduzzi has not recruited enough OL in the thread that went about 500 long but I must admit I looked for it and could not find it. I seem to remember you saying that he has only recruited “X” amount which just isn’t enough. Could be wrong…have been before.

PITT has not got many kids from California, but they haven’t had many kids that were the nephew of the Head Coach, not the trainer, not a co-ordinator…the Head Coach. It was a throw away, because the kid had no interest in playing for his uncle…his uncle. To me that is pathetic. We will disagree on that. I thought it was nuts when people said Alvarez used PITT as a farm system for his future coach but after that I did pause. As it turned out…

Wow, more revisionism about the greatness of Narduzzi. This gem ” I say he won 8 despite PC’s recruiting.”

Peterman and Chaney/Canada didn’t make Pitt’s offense. Pitt’s offense was very good in 2014 before any of those guys arrived. In fact the only thing that markedly improved in 2016 over 2014 was scoring.

Biz was a Chryst recruit and was never going anywhere else. He was a Pitt guy going back to FC. DJ could have gone anywhere when he decommitted from PSU. He chose Pitt. You can’t take that away because it fits your narrative.

You also apparently didn’t notice that Weah had 41 catches(and led in yards) in 2017 without any credible jet sweep threat and woeful QB play.

EDR, agree and kind of what I said above.. except yours is much more articulate. Goal posts seemingly get moved at times. btw, PC’s two best O-Line recruits are from Pittsburgh, Chyrst didn’t bring a top O-Line recruit from outside the area.

Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship yet recruiting rankings still really lag the big boys. I think a sound program that is based on stability and development works. Narduzzi is close to having the kind of depth and competition that will bring more success. Pickett is the wildcard. If he is as good as many hope, he clearly makes a material difference. More seasoning is needed but Pitt will be a fun team to watch next year. Some big boys coming in Drake, Warren. Brown, Twyman, Morgan. next year. Haven’t had that kind of size for quite awhile.

PS has a better alum base everywhere and especially eastern Pa and NJ.

Franklin’s pressers have phone in calls from reporters all over eastern Pa. that can not go to PS in person.Good PR . What do we do to get positive PR we let WV, PS and ND get better coverage on Root sports TV right in Pgh. than Pitt does and the watered down Pitt pressers are only about 15 minutes long after the Pirates and Penguins segments of 5 minutes each and commercials.

Pitt used to get 24 hour delayed telecast on Root now it’s WV. or some MAC school. We have a viscous cycle; poor attendance/ mt stadium, damaged recruiting,loosing games For the star gazers I watched Wyoming QB in bowl 12/23 and they said this kid who is now considered among the top 3 NFL draft picks had no offers out of HS went to JUCO and only got offer from Wyoming.

For those with good athletic skills and a brain, determination and a lot of hard work spell success a la Aron Donald.We’ll still get a couple come Feb. Merry Christmas to all and may the tooth fairy sprinkle you with stars tonight.

I really don’t know if you are trying to play Devils’s Advocate or you are clueless but (post at 2:21PM):

Point 1 – The upper classman from last year are from PC’s class. Any player from the Narduzzi era that Is starting has by-passed a PC recruit. Narduzzi is now dealing with a lost class as his upper class, just like PC had to do in year three and four. You miss the point. Narduzzi, because he went out and got a transfer (which PC rarely did at any position because he was a lazy recruiter) was able to steal a couple of extra wins in year 1 and 2 that for almost certain PC wouldn’t have got. It really is simple. We are going to just now see Narduzzi’z team. His recruits will be judged from next year going forward.

Point 2 – If I coached a P5 school and my nephew didn’t play there I would resign immediately. Chryst barely recruited him. In fact, we didn’t even know about this kid until like November of the year he signed with Stanford. Let me ask you this: If Narduzzi had a nephew that was ranked like the Chryst kid do you think that recruitment would have been as quite as the Chryst kid. I would bet almost my life that the kid would have played at PITT.

Lastly, I like how people are saying that we didn’t get Western PA kids. True, Narduzzi has not reeled enough, but it didn’t help that Chryst blew the relationship with the “Quips and many other schools. I guess we forget how many times we heard that that PITT didn’t show enough interest although I do feel that local recruits do seem to feel a little entitled.

Narduzzi seemed to have better success recruiting Western PA when he was at MSU because at MSU he had to only deal with PC at PITT and a down PSU, while at PITT he has to deal with a PSU that know they can do whatever they want since child rape isn’t a big deal the NCAA.

If Narduzzi’s Nephew grew up in California and had family and friends there and was a 5 star. Why on Earth would be go to a average at best program in a Rust Belt City when he could play and live in California and play in 70 degree weather.

I think a coach worth his salt wins right away. His recruiting is bad. Numbers don’t lie. Can’t even get a 4 star.

Reed, my point was just to point out that star’s are a very subjective topic, especially when it comes to making one’s point. The so called experts can’t agree on a young players ability in totality so how could we? I still subscribe to the theory that a recruiting class can’t be judged until 3 years out.

Again, I definitely prefer 4 and 5* players for Christmas.

Upitt: Narduzzi did win right away. Two eight win regular seasons his first as a head coach is most definitely winning right away. << Since that has happened PITT in 36 years. Keep trying to diminish Narduzzi as it’s obvious you’re trying too hard… ike

K’Wan Williams just made a beautiful INT for the 49ers versus the Jags.

The Wannstedt firing not only cost Aaron Donald playing with Division 1 defensive ends like Shalique Calhoun, Darius Hamilton and Deonte Gibson instead of a former Ohio State fullback-turned-end and other stiffs who were recruited, but Pitt’s secondary also suffered.

Pitt should have had Williams, Pitts, Jason Hendricks and 2011 recruit-turned-decommit, Kyseon Jarrett, together for two years.

I think the mob is behind this. They are paying off Al Riveron to make these calls. The Pats were favored by a large 11.5 points against a 8-6 division rival fighting for a playoff spot and a lot of Buffalo money was rolling in. There was also a bogus interference call that Gronk got in the end zone. At least a 8 point edge given to the Pats on the 2 plays.

We have been paying our coaches at approximately 65th out of 130. If a recruiting class is ranked under 65th, we are doing better than what we pay for. Therein lies the problem. If you want an “A” Program, you pay “A” prices for your football leadership team. It’s simple.

When you pay your coaches at 65th and you schedule in the 20’s, you have an even worse AD. We are and have been the perfect crapstorm, repeated. Tressel would have brought immediate respect to the program…..and 4 stars.

Merry Christmas to all. My wish for each of you is a year of health, happiness and success!

Merry Christmas to all you POVers! UPitt…so sorry about your mom. Let me know when you are coming back to Uniontown and we will hit the Nemacolin Casino…$1 slots,bourbon and cigars!
To my 4 some…Jay91, Major Majors and Erie…nothing but greens and fairways in 18!

To all of you Pitt addicts …less tension in 18.

To Reed…sincere thanks for this forum and blog and all the hard work you do to keep it open!

Will do Dan! Still want to talk shop and business with you and hear some good big sales stories. Trying to get up there in Feb. My buddy runs a part of it so we can smoke in Joe’s private area and stay on the cheap. We should do the POV Open there or West Palm Beach this year.

The new lackawanna walk on reminds me sooo much of Alex Officer. About 6’3″ 340 pounds. Hopoe he plays with a mean streak, that’s all I care about. I wanna see some pancakes in 18 and tough defensive hits in 18. Fear the Panther!!!

When walkons take on such important roles on your team like Morrisey, Aston. Idowu and Kessman, there is a recruiting problem. Three stars and 4 stars should outplay walkons every day and every play. Just saying. That is why I think our team is soft. Name me another P5 team where so many walkons play in such pivotal roles.

That’s one way to look at it. Frankly, if you enjoy needling “experts” and other arbiters of pretension, it’s the fun way. It’s also shortsighted: Beyond the vagaries, the hype and the busts, the annual recruiting rankings still represent the most reliable system at our disposal for making initial assumptions about teams and players alike. Taken as a whole, the numbers actually do work – as long as you’re willing to use all of the numbers.

Not to take all the fun out of it, but in practice, drawing conclusions from recruiting rankings is the rough equivalent of selling health insurance. Both industries are in the business of predicting the future on a large scale – of making bets, essentially – and both have sound, proven criteria for guaranteeing they bet right more often than they bet wrong.

Occasionally, of course, certain individuals will defy that criteria: A lifelong smoker who eats fast food every day may live to be 90 years old. A vegetarian who exercises every day may suddenly drop dead at fifty. But when you’re dealing with large groups of individuals, say, 1,000 smokers vs. 600 vegetarians, then the results become very, very predictable.

Recruiting operates on the same question, with measures for size and speed standing in for health risks. On a player-by-player or even team-by-team level, guessing who specifically will or will not live up to the hype, or will thrive despite a lack of hype, is almost always a fool’s errand. But the foundation underlying those predictions remains remarkably stable. The key is to think in terms of groups, not individuals.

ASSESSING TEAM RANKINGS. To do that, we have to start by creating a way to measure what the rankings project for each team. Using the “star” scale in a slightly different capacity, I classified all 72 teams residing in one of the “Big Six” BCS conferences in 2013 (the ACC, American, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC) along with Boise State, Notre Dame and BYU into one of five “classes,” based on each team’s accumulated recruiting rankings over the last four years, from 2010 to 2013. In the name of comprehensiveness, I’m using the composite team rankings compiled by 247Sports, an average of rankings from multiple services.

The designations are based strictly on the combined scores of the rankings alone, with no attempt to account for injuries, transfers, academic casualties, arrests or any other routine form of attrition:

Note that, since 2003, the eleven teams in the “five-star” group have combined for 21 appearances in the BCS Championship game, compared to one appearance by any of the 64 teams listed below. (The lone exception in that span, Oregon, just barely missed the cut for five-star status.) The only “five-star” teams that never played for a title in the BCS era are Georgia and Michigan; among the rest, only Notre Dame failed to make a repeat trip.

And another for Christmas morning. Note what this says about recruits’ listed ‘offers’… This is exactly what I wrote about in the article above.

“If I were building a recruiting service from scratch, and my goal was above all else to produce the most accurate rankings on the planet, I would take the following evidence into account, most of which the four major services clearly already do.

Camp measurements. It’s not hard to build prototypes that are more likely to succeed. Getting players to attend a camp and get officially measured — height, weight, speed and other general data — is going to be more accurate than having a recruit say, “I’m 6’3, 235, and I run a 4.35 forty.”

High school and camp film. Stats and measurables are great, but there should always be room for film evaluation. At the high school level, almost every player with an FBS scholarship offer is going to be better than most of the players he goes against. He will therefore have good film. But an educated eye is going to be able to ascertain the difference between good film and great film. And the prevalence of Hudl assures film exists for just about everybody. (Seriously, seventh graders have Hudl film now.)

High school stats. One day, someone is going to figure out a way to adjust for levels of opposition when looking at an FBS prospect’s gaudy stats and glean some value from it. And that person is going to make millions of dollars. Okay, or at least thousands.

The ratings of other recruiting services. There’s a reason the 247Sports Composite rankings are viewed in high regard.

Offer lists. In a perfect world, you could group every FBS prospect on the same smallish cluster of teams, have them battle each other over a series of 20 or 30 games, give everybody equal playing time, and produce an accurate outlook of a player’s potential for immediate impact and years-down-the-road impact. This is an imperfect world. You make evaluations with the tools you’ve got, and one of the few tools is the knowledge of who has offered a scholarship to whom.

This knowledge is also made blurry by the fact that kids might not be completely accurate when it comes to listing the offers they have received*; that, or maybe a player doesn’t have what some might call an “actionable” offer, i.e. an offer he could immediately parlay into a commitment to that school. We have to trust that services largely seek to confirm offers with sources within athletic departments.

You know what would be cool? If schools were required to list the players to whom they’ve offered scholarships. I’m not saying it will happen … just saying it would be great.

Still, just like sometimes-inaccurate measurements and hard-to-decipher stats, a blurry offer list is one of the best tools you’ve got. It offers a hint into the evaluation systems of coaches, who are employed on their ability to make evaluations. And if you’re aiming for accuracy, it would be crazy not to take this into account.

At the very least, a big offer should force a reevaluation. If Alabama or Ohio State offers a player you’ve graded as a two-star guy, a red flag should go up.”

NOTE: This is a bit inaccurate as schools are prohibited from discuss any recruits at all by NCAA rules

@Reed, though you present a good argument, the big flaw I see is WE are judging a small sample size(Pitt guys only) AND football is notoriously difficult for assessment of individuals, just look at the NFL for early draft pick busts which are made often BY THE BEST IN THE WORLD ASSESSING ALL THE INFORMATION AVVAILABLE EVERYWHERE.

It has to be only a Pitt where you can take a class of nothing but three star kids with no big names attached and think it’s a good recruiting class.

I won’t say this is a bad class either. My point all along is if you get nothing but three star kids and over the last two recruiting classes we’ve got all 3 stars except for two four stars, then we are not going to win championships, that’s just the way it is.

And can we finally stop blaming Paul Chryst for everything that goes wrong with narduzzi’s program … freaking ridiculous.

I have never seen as much excuse-making for any Pitt head coach as this guy’s getting for the worst season we’ve had in 20 years.

Merry Christmas…10 am and the family is still asleep. Oh well , it’s not like I’m going to be getting any presents either.

I got woken up at 7:05am. Haha. 28 degrees this morning in Texas. Merry Christmas. I hope you all got your Rockports and Grape Fanta. Heather made such a great Holiday Video and forgot to add all the teams. Details Heather. Of course ahe had to make an appearence in the video. True leaders don’t need to hog the camera. That alone tells me all I need to know about her rookie level leadership.

Merry Christmas to the POVers and especially to you, Reed. Thanks for all the entertaining discussion this year. Let’s all make a pact to be more civil in our disagreements- you can disagree without being disagreeable! May 2018 be happy, healthy, and profitable to all- especially our beloved Panthers. H2P!

I can’t say PC is actually being blamed for any troubles, it’s when he’s being brought up as the reason Narduzzi won 8 regular season games two years in a row. Well, why didn’t Paul win 8 games his first two years?

As far as everyone touting this past recruiting class? Maybe a few are but it’s more of a case of defending it from those that are condemning it. It’s a solid class that fills in needed depth while WPIAL was a little light in top end recruits this year. I call it more of an ancillary class.

Now the bashing of PITT bringing in PWO begins when I understand Narduzzi was just filling out the roster as was said on the POV. Devon Davis (example) as you may remember fellow POVer’s was the player PITT wanted at LCCC when they landed C Brown on a schollie then Davis who had higher hopes broke his ankle. PITT stuck with him and now here he comes to PITT. A little like Shady if you ask me.

PITT did pick up a few good lineman from the local area, actually they got the best the WPIAL had to offer.

Notice there was zero finger pointing in this comment, just my general overview of some of the reactions to this past recruiting class. Just like the big Miami win that has been downplayed by some. It’s very telling to me… ike

You frequently ding Chryst, just in a far more passive aggressive way than UPitt dings Narduzzi. However it’s nearly as transparent and somehow more annoying. Your 8 win comment regarding Chryst’s first two seasons is a case in point. You understand he was directly in line after Wannstedt was sent off and Fraud did his one year song and dance? That means Chryst paid for the recruits that looked elsewhere after Wannstedt left and also paid for Fraud who recruited a different style of player on both sides of the ball.

Miami downplayed that big win on their own by completely tanking the ACC championship to Clemson. I personally felt that Pitt completely outplayed Miami in Pitt’s most complete effort of the season. It seems odd that a legit #2 team in a probable win and in playoff situation would be non-competitive against a 4-7 team. I’m somewhat surprised that Miami held landed at #10.

The bottom 15 of those playoff rankings are almost like the committee just had to fill out the top 25 and they’d been pulling the rankings out of their rectums anyway.

I am staying out of the recruiting discussion. I am with what I perceive to be the majority who believe in wait and see for the 2018 class. We should have a good feel for Narduzzi’s 2015 and 2016 recruits in 2018. I’m sure those will be interesting discussions.

Don’t forget the offensive line last year that has been called bad by others were all PC’s 5th year recruits while at the same time I read what a wonderful job he did in recruiting the O-Line? See how that works? Both ways…

I get what happened with Paul and I can see the point but when it comes to the past three bad seasons of poor defense, who get the blame? Certainly not Paul for a terrible recruiting effort on the defensive side of the ball. Again, see how that works. I can do the same thing.

I watched a great video by a little girl from Houston on the news who had a damaged house from the storm and a sick father. She didn’t want Santa to bring her any toys, just to help her family. The outpouring of help for her family is truly a Christmas miracle.

Ike, in both 2015 and 2016 all five starters on the OL were HCPC’s recruits (O’Neill being moved from TE)… Both were 8 win seasons. We were 44th and 28th respectively in rushing those years and last season gave up only 10 sacks…

In ’14 we were 15th in rushing and 3 of 5 OL s were Chryst recruits …with Rowell being injured most of the year.

When we see HCPN’s OL do that with his own recruits then you can bitch about Chryst’s lineman. Until then let’s keep our fingers crossed the new kids come anywhere close to what we have had as far as quality and production.

Personally I think we’ll tank in that unit in ’18 and I’ve been pretty good with predictions regarding the Pitt team and players.

I downplay ANY single win (unless it’s against PSU) because it’s just that. We beat Miami. It was awesome. I was there and had a great time. But…

We lost SEVEN times. Are you saying that one game is more representative of the season than losing to UNC? They both happened. So take away those HIGH and LOW points, and you have a 4-6 season with an escape at home to an FCS school. Maybe we just have different ideas of “successful.”

..And only on the POV would anyone try to make the point that recruiting 4* & 5* players is unnecessary for success.

No Jay, I’m not saying that. I agree the loss to UNC sucked, big-time. (any plays in that game that weren’t the coaches fault) I don’t downplay it like others don’t want to give credit for 3 big upset wins the past two years. It’s just I watch the games for what actually happens and consider all aspect of the outcome without passing judgement where it may not necessarily belong.

PITT did struggle this year with poor QB and O-Line play with a very young defense. I’m just not in that big of a hurry to crucify the coach as some seem to be.

Boston College before Doug Flutie was a far different team than the one that lined up offensively with Doug Flutie. Is Pickett our Doug Flutie? I’m not ready to place the Flutie crown on Pickett just yet. But a very good QB can right many of the ills an existing team plays with on any given day. That being the case more so in College Football than many other team sports. Pickett has the chance to make plays despite some of the weaknesses Pitt trots out each game. It might surprise some that he can even do so playing with a group of walk ons and 3 stars.

Pickett is a perfect example of playing your talent instead of experience. I’ve said it before, PITT is in no way able or should redshirt anyone with talent. Alabama, OSU and Clemson can because they get 4 and 5 stars. PITT has to play everyone that can help them win so they can attract better talent.

I agree Pittastic. Yet there are many things we don’t know. I believe Narduzzi played Whitehead right off the bat. He looked ready and physically capable of hanging with young men 3 or 4 years older than him. It’s been said many times and we wee all there once. The growth between the ages of 18-23 is immense, physically and mentally. While everyone grows at different ages and different rates.

Also, we have to look at what position while at the same time evaluating how particular player has progressed. What I’m saying is I believe it’s not so cut and dried as we all would like it to be. At the same time, I can’t beieve there is coach that wouldn’t play the player who would help him win the most unless there were mitigating circumstances. To me, it’s not as simple as put me in coach… ike

Ike – I think PN nature is to not take risks and I believe it cost the team some wins and the program some much needed momentum. We don’t know the whole story but sometimes you need to throw caution to the wind. If you look at overachieving programs like Boise State. They’re initiative and take risks in order to level the playing field because they can’t match talent. Whitehead is a perfect example as well. He was explosive with the limited touches he had on offense. They had to use him more, I don’t think he impacted the game at safety that much.

I agree Reed on Pickett being the best option out of the gate, which is frustrating given Pitt’s QB bugaboos in the past. At the same time it does give me optimism for next year as we do look to have a solid HOMEGROWN QB starter going into next year, which we haven’t been able to say in a LONG time.

Reed said right off the bat he thought Pickett looked good and his arm was the strongest. Of course now I would prefer KP started all the games, if nothing else he would have 9 more games under his belt with experience. Still not sure we know the whole story.

I am no expert but I had to be one of the first to get on the Pickett bandwagon here before he even signed but had been offered, I had a chance to watch HS video. It showed good mgmt., Good arm with strong downfield throws, ability to move around and run with good use of RPO and smooth ball handling which made the teams play go fast. But you guys have it right he should have started first game like a lot of other schools do when you have the talent. I wonder if we had retained Canada if that would have happened?

After Pickett played in a game I would have stuck with him because the season was lost and by that time it was obvious he was as good as DiNucci but I don’t know if I would have played him before Browne and DiNucci game #1. That said, if he was equal to the other two in camp I think I would have had him pretty quick, game #4 for sure, maybe earlier.