from the the-future-is-coming-fast dept

Chances are, I can name five tech devices that are in your home — or pocket — right now. That's because about half of all U.S. households today own at least one television, smartphone, tablet and laptop/desktop.

Collectively, these five consumer technology product categories have represented more than 40 percent of industry revenue since 2011 — and more than 50 percent in the past four years.

But the products we own and the ways we use them are changing.

According to the latest forecast from the Consumer Technology Association, the piece of the industry pie occupied by these product categories — TVs, smartphones, tablets, laptops and desktops — is shrinking as ownership rates peak and product life cycles lengthen.

And while their growth over the past decade has largely defined the consumer tech industry, their revenue growth is slowing — a shift that points to the future of consumer tech.

While only 63 percent of U.S. households own their own home, two-thirds own a smartphone, 9 out of 10 own a computer, and almost every one — 98 percent — owns a television. We spend almost 11 hours a day engaging with a screen in one form or another.

Our use of these devices is not only changing the ways we live and relate to one another, they are fundamentally changing our identity. Take smartphones, which have transformed not only how we communicate, but also how we commute (Uber and Lyft), choose restaurants (Yelp), grocery shop (Instacart), listen to music (Pandora) and connect with one another (Facebook).

The inflection point suggested by industry forecasts isn't just one of growth and decline, but a substantial change in how we infuse technology into our core existence. The list of original, innovative, digitally connected products is growing, thanks to emerging tech categories such as wearables, virtual and augmented reality, digital personal assistants and a slew of internet-connected objects showing up in smart-home technologies.

Next year will mark the first year the "Big Five" consumer tech products represent less than 50 percent of consumer technology industry revenue. But, to be clear, this isn't a sign of decline; rather, it's an indication of opportunity and growth and adoption as consumers turn to an increasingly broader array of digital devices to redefine how we live our lives.

The installed base for these large categories has spawned remarkably diverse innovation. For example, smartwatches are today primarily extensions of the smartphone. With that comes a massive period of experimentation, as we try to make sense of how we want to integrate these devices into our daily lives.

As new-use cases evolve, smartwatches will do much more than simply complement our smartphones. It's part of the reason we project continued smartwatch growth, with more than 12 million units sold in the U.S. this year.

Growth in stand-alone digital assistance devices such as Amazon's Echo ("Hi, Alexa!") or Google's forthcoming Home will build in the years to come. CTA projects more than 1 million digital assistant units will sell this year — about one-third more units than last year.

While the smartphone morphed into the hub for a number of connected devices, your voice is becoming the new interface as growing areas of tech integrate into these platforms.

Over the past two years, consumers are focusing more on monitoring and tracking the metrics of their daily activity levels. Today, 20 percent of households have an activity tracker, and our forecast predicts 60 percent growth in 2016.

The desire to measure data that is already there but not currently being captured is now beginning to emerge in other areas of our lives, too. For example, pet tech is expected to blossom into a $250 million segment by 2020 — and this category was essentially nonexistent just a few years ago.

Technology is constantly, continuously reinventing itself, cannibalizing its own growth before something else can. We are now entering the next phase of growth, as we transition from the stalwarts that grew consumer technology into a $287 billion industry in the U.S. to the emerging categories that will propel us forward.

We've spent the past 15 years replacing analog technology devices with their digital counterparts. We are now turning to an even bigger endeavor. We are beginning to adopt digital devices where no analog corollary existed.

Herein lies the great opportunity and challenge for consumer tech. Digitizing elements of our lives that thus far have been completely untouched by technology is a tremendous opportunity with diverse, real-world problems to solve.

To drive adoption within this emerging tech paradigm, consumers need to clearly see the value propositions and the use case scenarios. And this is just the start. In the decades to come, consumer tech, such as autonomous vehicles and virtual reality will push us even further along an innovation frontier.

The opportunity is thrilling. The challenge is real. And the potential disruption to how we define ourselves and live our lives will be phenomenal.

Shawn DuBravac is chief economist of the Consumer Technology Association and the author of Digital Destiny: How the New Age of Data Will Transform the Way We Live, Work, and Communicate. Follow him on Twitter @shawndubravac.

from the it's-not-just-the-pirate-bay dept

Earlier this week, I put together a list of some of the technologies that a law like COICA might have banned in the past, noting that when they first came out, legacy industries condemned them as being "dedicated to infringing activities," which is the basis that the Justice Department would get to ban websites under COICA, in some cases with little or no due process. But some people have pointed out that it's worth pointing out some modern technologies that the entertainment industry is still trying to ban via lawsuit, which could potentially fit under the definitions in the law as well. For example:

YouTube: While Viacom claims it's now okay with YouTube thanks to its ContentID system, if you read over Viacom's filings in the lawsuit, they make it clear that they believe YouTube was "dedicated to infringing activities." It's not hard to see that, if COICA had been around five years ago, there would be no YouTube today.

Music lockers: As I mentioned recently, I've been playing around with a few music lockers, as a way of storing and backing up my (legal, authorized) music collection, and as a way to access it on the go. I can't see how it's infringing for me to make use of my own music in such a manner, but as we've seen with EMI's lawsuit against Michael Robertson and the MP3tunes locker, some record labels believe such things are "dedicated to infringing activities." Does it seem reasonable that the Justice Department can just block access to a site that lets me store my own music?

Music search engines: Remember Seeqpod? It was a really useful search engine for music. It didn't store or transmit any music itself, but simply acted as Google. Warner Music and EMI both sued the company, forcing it to declare bankruptcy (and bizarrely, it was just bought by a DRM company). With a law like COICA, it would be even easier for the record labels and their former lawyers in the Justice Department to simply shut down really useful tools like Seeqpod.

And that's just the start. It's not difficult to think of all sorts of services that are coming out these days that are derided by anti-visionary industry lawyers as "dedicated to infringing activities." Do we really want to allow the federal government and a bunch of lawyers to kill off these technologies, without a lawsuit, and without a chance to demonstrate that they do a lot more than help people infringe?