Saturday, April 15, 2006

New War Games

According to the Guardian, "British officers took part in a US war game aimed at preparing for a possible invasion of Iran, despite repeated claims by the foreign secretary, Jack Straw, that a military strike against Iran is inconceivable.The war game, codenamed Hotspur 2004, took place at the US base of Fort Belvoir in Virginia in July 2004.A Ministry of Defence spokesman played down its significance yesterday. "These paper-based exercises are designed to test officers to the limit in fictitious scenarios. We use invented countries and situations using real maps," he said.

It seems that a military strike on Iran is very conceivable. Perhaps, to alleviate the British from too much embarrassment, it will be carried out by the US alone, probably with some commandos inside the country and after that a bombing of nuclear installations. After that, any kind of scenario is conceivable, depending on Iranian reactions. The US may have to depend on help from its allies, - and it'll probably get this help, - even from a bigger number of them compared to the attack on Iraq. It is a decisive time for the EU which gets a big chunk of its oil from Iran. The US is not importing much from the country.

According to Russian general Jurij Balujevskij, the Iranians will not be able to produce nuclear weapons, neither now, in the near future, nor in the distant future. If that is correct, it raises the question: Why are the Iranians up for a sound beating? Because they're talking badly about Israel? It doesn't make sense. An eagerness to spread freedom and democracy? - Doesn't make sense either.

Another reason could be the batte for control of Central Asia and the Middle East; the area is the richest in the world in oil and gas reserves.