Roundball Mining Company » Rumorshttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com
We'll move the earth for a title!Tue, 03 Mar 2015 18:18:08 +0000en-UShourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1BREAKING: Masai Ujiri leaving Nuggets for Toronto Raptorshttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/05/31/breaking-masai-ujiri-leaving-nuggets-for-toronto-raptors/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/05/31/breaking-masai-ujiri-leaving-nuggets-for-toronto-raptors/#commentsFri, 31 May 2013 21:50:39 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=6483The news Nuggets fans have been dreading for a week straight became a reality Friday afternoon. The Toronto Raptors ongoing pursuit of former Nuggets GM Masai Ujiri is complete with Masai agreeing to a five year deal to become the Raptors’ next general manager.

Masai Ujiri has agreed to a 5 year deal for $15 million with Toronto, league sources say.

It’s a tough reality for the Nuggets, who now have to start looking forward to an uncertain summer after one of the most successful seasons in franchise history. Obviously we will have a lot more coverage of what this means going forward, but Masai ended up signing the rich deal we all feared a savvy NBA team might offer in order to pry away the executive of the year.

Toronto did what it took to get him and for a hard worker with as humble beginnings as Ujiri, it is major success story. Congratulations to Masai.

UPDATE: The Nuggets have released a statement regarding Masai Ujiri. Team president Josh Kroenke announced a search for a new executive and the departing Masai Ujiri offers a few quotes as well. Read the full text on the Nuggets official website here.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/05/31/breaking-masai-ujiri-leaving-nuggets-for-toronto-raptors/feed/43Bradley Beal: Nuggets Interested in Trading Up to Draft Mehttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/06/27/bradley-beal-nuggets-interested-in-trading-up-to-draft-me/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/06/27/bradley-beal-nuggets-interested-in-trading-up-to-draft-me/#commentsWed, 27 Jun 2012 21:25:30 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=4046While we are passing along hot rumors, a new article by Chad Ford reports that Oklahoma City GM Sam Presti told Florida shooting guard Bradley Beal the Thunder would look into trading up to draft him. Who cares? Not gonna happen, right? Well, a little further down the page Beal shares that another playoff team from the Northwest Division made a similar comment.

Beal said Denver, which picks at No. 20, also made a similar statement.

Plus there was no clear cut player that made sense for Denver with the seventh pick. Some fans speculated that the ultimate plan was to move up into the top five. Looking at the circumstantial evidence of the Nuggets being tied to story with them trading up and now Beal’s comment that Denver told him they were interested in him, I think it is safe to speculate that the Nuggets are working to get into the top four picks.

With teams like Cleveland and Washington already in the top four hot after Beal, Denver would have to trade up to Charlotte’s second spot to get him. With Charlotte desperate for NBA players and the Nuggets possessing many quality NBA players, they could be a decent match, but only if the Nuggets can offer a pick high enough for the Bobcats to feel like they are not dropping too far.

As we have mentioned many times here, Denver has plenty of pieces to utilize in trades and they have a bold front office willing to be aggressive. I suspect the chances of Denver getting a pick high enough to draft Beal are low. Even so, Denver is certainly looking at improving their team and that is exciting.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/06/27/bradley-beal-nuggets-interested-in-trading-up-to-draft-me/feed/27Nene and Market Forceshttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/13/nene-and-market-forces/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/13/nene-and-market-forces/#commentsTue, 13 Dec 2011 08:29:31 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=2766The free agency big man logjam is starting to clear out a bit, but four days into the signing period, we still do not know where Nene will be playing this year. However, fellow centers Tyson Chandler (four years, $56 million), Marc Gasol (four years, $58 million) and DeAndre Jordan (four years, $42.7 million) have completed deals and the market value for Nene is becoming apparent.

The New Jersey Nets have a four year offer for Nene that is reportedly in the $60-$65 million range, they Houston is still desperate to acquire a center and they are known to be high on Nene. The Indiana Pacers were another team seeking Nene’s signature, but they chose to sign power forward David West formerly of the New Orleans Hornets to a two year, $20 million pact. Of course, Denver has offered Nene a high dollar extension last season and they worked to try to get a deal done up until the lockout kicked in.

The market suggests Nene is certainly worth a five year, $56-$60 million contract. You have to keep in mind that markets can shift quickly and the basic rule that drives change is supply and demand. There has been enough big men on the market to meet the needs of those looking to acquire one. However, as the supply shrinks, it becomes obvious to those with demand that there is a very good chance they might end up missing out on getting a player to meet their needs. We are down to two starting caliber centers, one being Nene and the other Samuel Dalembert.

There are at least three teams in the market for one or both of those players, Denver, Houston, New Jersey and possibly even Golden State. Because of the new shortage, the price could increase significantly. Houston, who has had the worst luck of any team seeing Yao Ming suffer a career ending injury and then the three way trade that would have brought in Pau Gasol and cleared enough cap space to sign Nene was vetoed. If Daryl Morey becomes desperate enough, he might amnesty project center Hasheem Thabeet in order to make a stronger run at Nene. Should Dwight Howard not be available presently, New Jersey may very well throw more money at Nene.

I have no doubt Denver is willing to pay the current market price for Nene, but if either one or both of the other teams involved increases their offer, I believe Denver will walk away. I do believe Denver will have to outbid the other suitors in order to retain Nene and while I have found that notion unlikely there is the possibility that the Nuggets are simply being patient with Nene as they are with Arron Afflalo.

There is very little information that comes out of the Pepsi Center, but there have been whispers that the Nuggets are confident they will be able to resign Nene. The more I think about it, the more likely it seems to me Denver is waiting out the situation in order to avoid bidding against themselves. It is possible Nene agrees with a deal to play in Houston or Jersey/Brooklyn tomorrow, but it seems to me Denver is going to see what Nene can get on the market and then choose if they want to top it or bow out.

It certainly is possible the Nets choose not to make Nene an official offer and that the Rockets cannot clear enough cap space to scare Denver away. In that situation, the market shifts again, this time in Denver’s favor as the demand melts away. At that point, Denver could offer Nene a four year deal in the $50 million range and possibly hang onto him for less money than was expected.

At this point it could go either way. You can always guess where the market is going, but no one ever really knows for sure.

Denver Signs DeMarre Carroll

As Kalen shared with everyone, Sam Amick has reported the Nuggets have agreed to a one year contract with DeMarre Carroll. Carroll was a fantastic player at Missouri where his strength and energy overwhelmed opponents. Things were not so easy for Carroll in the NBA and after getting some fairly consistent playing time as a rookie in Memphis, he has faded into obscurity.

I see this signing as a response to Milwaukee matching the offer sheet for Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Carroll is a similar player who is a much better defender than offensive player. He can guard three positions and I even saw some film of his second game in Memphis his rookie season where he covered Rasho Nesterovic, Andrea Bargnani, Chris Bosh, Hedo Turkoglu and Marco Bellineli. I am not referring to situations where he switched onto one of them. He was tasked with covering each one of those players at one time or another.

Carroll plays sound defense and is good at positioning himself properly depending on the relationship between the ball and his man. He is strong and willing to bang on the block and goes after rebounds aggressively.

Offensively, Carroll is quite inept. He has a serious chicken wing going on his shot with his right elbow pointing well right of the basket and he never fully extends his right arm when he shoots. He can dribble in a straight line and is able to trigger the break after getting a rebound. He runs the floor well, but is not a great finisher.

Carroll may not get much playing time with Denver, but as an energy player willing to guard anyone on the floor, he will certainly be called on from time to time.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/13/nene-and-market-forces/feed/8Free Agency Digest: Day Onehttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/09/free-agency-digest-day-one/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/09/free-agency-digest-day-one/#commentsFri, 09 Dec 2011 18:05:58 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=2718Free Agency hasn’t started yet, but that has caused no shortage of drama in what is sure to be the craziest NBA offseason ever. By now you’ve all heard news of the Chris Paul deal that wasn’t. The league office will open for business at 12pm MST today and it will be very interesting to see how fast the frenzy will unfold one day after the infamous Veto. This post will be updated with any Nuggets developments and our thoughts on them, so check back throughout the day.

The big news out of Benjamin Hochman today is that the Nuggets are making a “strong push” for Milwaukee RFA Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Denver has also been linked to RFA’s Nick Young, Thaddeus Young, and DeAndre Jordan but those have been generally been sourced to questionable tweets mentioning the Nuggets and a half dozen or so other teams.

Keep in mind that under Masai and Josh, the Nuggets front office isn’t leaking out rumors in every direction which they have been known for in the past. About the only thing we know is that the Nuggets want badly to keep their own players and are unlikely to make any significant moves beyond trying to do that. Take all rumors with a grain of salt because I do not believe Masai has even hinted at what the Nuggets strategy might be when free agency opens.

Until then, enjoy the latest news and links as day one starts. Again, 12pm MST is when all official business starts happening sans any more vetos. Updates coming throughout the day as news comes in.

Follow Jeremy, Kalen, and Charlie on Twitter and we will let you know when we post an update. If you are an NBA fan and not on Twitter, you missed a front row seat to the circus yesterday. It costs you nothing but your free time and self respect to join!

Update (11:54 AM MST)Nets to offer Nene 4 years, $60-65 million
News is coming from Woj at Yahoo Sports that Billy King, New Jersey Nets GM, is expected to offer a 4 year contract to Nene today. At $65 million, that is an average of $16.25 million per year. The Nuggets have been confident they will retain Nene with a five year deal but it remains to be seen if Nene and his agent would be willing to forgo a higher annual salary for the added security of a fifth guaranteed year. It’s not clear to me how high the Nuggets are prepared to bid on Nene but this offer is close to the near-max contract he is said to be seeking.

Update (12:06 PM MST)

I will kick things off discussing local hero and recent Nugget Chauncey Billups. The New York Knickerbockers have come to an agreement to sign Tyson Chandler and as part of that deal they had to amnesty Chauncey Billups. The entire amnesty process has not been made public as of yet, but here is what we know. Players who are released via the amnesty provision are subject to an auction involving all teams under the salary cap. The team with the winning bid will then pay that player that salary for every remaining year of his contract. According to Larry Coon, any player who is acquired through the auction process cannot be traded for 30 days.

Here are two things to keep in mind at this point. First, most teams that are under the cap are not good. Second, Chauncey wants to play for a contender.

The question then becomes will a team under the cap take a shot at Chauncey, or will he clear the auction process without a bidder and become an unrestricted free agent? To answer that question, let’s take a look at who is under the cap and whether or not they will pursue Chauncey.

The Kings have Tyreke Evans and now Jimmer! While they need to spend a lot of cash, they are not in a position to fight for a playoff spot. You can make the veteran leadership argument, but to me you want those two on the court and Chauncey will take minutes from both. Add in young shooting guard Marcus Thornton and Sacramento does not look like a potential destination for Mr. Big Shot.

The Pacers are seeking to spend their money on some big men, i.e. Marc Gasol and Nene. I doubt they will want to tie up many dollars with a bid on Chauncey. Add in developing point guard Darren Collison and we get the same issue as in Sacramento. The veteran leadership would be nice, but they want Collison on the court.

Um, what can we say here? Chauncey would have made a lot of sense for the Hornets if that whole Chris Paul trade had gone through. Now, that front office must feel completely handcuffed. They could always place a bid and trade Chauncey if Paul remains in New Orleans for the rest of the season or have him in their pocket incase Paul is traded. Still, I find the Hornets front office unlikely to bid, unless that whole veto deal is reversed and soon.

This is interesting. I would actually love to see Chauncey on the Clippers. He would bring additional shooting alongside Mo Williams and would really help provide leadership. Chauncey with the Clippers would be great fun. Would they put in a bid, I would expect so, but only a minimal one.

I would hope the Raptors would pass, but who knows? They are crazy. With the forthcoming ownership change, I doubt they will spend any money. I would not want to see Billups in Toronto anyway. I doubt Chauncey wants to see himself there either.

Chauncey is an efficient player on offense, which will peak Daryl Morey’s interest no doubt, but what can the Rockets do? They will want to make sure the trade netting them Gasol is truly dead. Plus, they are pursuing Nene and will want to preserve that money. I think they pass, but would not be surprised if they bid.

It would be a nice story and if Detroit wants to make a push at the playoffs, they might try to add Chauncey. He could play in the backcourt with Stuckey, should he resign. I believe there is a decent chance the Pistons make a bid.

I do not see any other potential suitors unless Dan Gilbert wants to feel like he is sticking it to the Knicks by having them pay one of his players this season. Do not put it past him, he is the David Kahn of owners.

Might the Denver Nuggets attempt to bring back Chauncey, potentially against his wishes to play for a contender? Denver must spend a lot of money, they obviously want to compete. Plus if things do not work out, Nene leaves or the team is not a playoff caliber team, they can do good by Chauncey and trade him to a contender. If Denver places a solid bid on him, they can protect him from ending up in Toronto or Sacramento and then either Chauncey plays in Denver on a playoff team, or the Nuggets get something for him again to help him find a good home. Andre Miller could be flipped to a team who wants him rather easily thanks to his expiring deal, or George Karl could run a three point guard offense, which I bet he has had dreams about.

The odds on favorite in my mind is Denver. In the words of the Church Lady, “Well isn’t that special?”

– Jeremy

Update (2:27 PM MST)

With Nene soon to receive an official offer from the Nets as was noted above, word could come at any second that he is leaving. The Nuggets front office is forced to choose between offering a massive contract to a player who has had injury issues in the past and if offered a fifth year will be making roughly $18 million in the fifth season when he is 33 and completely turning the page from being a perennial playoff team to a rebuilding team with an unknown future.

Nuggets fans all know about Nene. He is a very talented player. He has lateral quickness, but lacks vertical explosiveness. He is big, but not huge. Of course, he has never been a dominant rebounder or shot blocker, but has elite perimeter skills for a center or power forward. Most frustratingly of all, even in his ninth season he continues to disappear during games. Most shockingly, for a player whose strength is scoring, who played on a fast paced team, he has never scored more than 28 points in a game. Nene plays hard and obviously cared when he is on the court, but he does not rebound nor does he block shots. He was 70th in the league in rebound rate last season.

For Denver to match, or exceed the offer from the Nets, they must be certain that Nene is a franchise center, or power forward if you like, and that he can be the building block of a contender.

Personally I do not see it. I believe Denver must do what they can to get something out of a sign and trade with New Jersey, even if it is just a future draft pick and move on. It is a terrible decision to have to make. Based on what the Nuggets do we will know if they want to be mediocre just to try to keep attendance up, or if they are committed to making the difficult decisions in order to truly have a chance at building a new foundation for a contending team.

– Jeremy

Update (2:40 MST)

Adrian Wojnarowski just revealed via twitter that Gary Forbes is close to accepting a three year deal with Toronto. The third year is a team option and no details on the dollar amount of the contract were released. Based on Woj’s wording it seems that despite Forbes being a restricted free agent he is in the final stages of becoming a Toronto Raptor.

This is the MO for a front office that last year made an offer to Linas Kleiza that Denver did not match. After dominating the Euroleague two seasons ago Kleiza failed to live up to expectations with the Raps and reverted to his mediocre NBA self. Gary Forbes was a rookie last season who showed promise with Denver, but he turns 27 in February and he is a developing player who may not turn out to be a contributor.

The Nuggets have money to spend, but anything beyond a very low risk contract for Forbes seems silly to me. I would have no problem having Gary prove he can settle into a nice role on this young term and earn a decent contract extension. The problem is giving an unproven player an extension now. It’s a difficult decision to make and it really depends on how much this offer is for before we can speculate on whether or not matching it would be wise.

– Charlie

Update 4:48 PM MST

This has little to do with what is happening today, but the trade deadline has been set at March 15, 2012. The Chinese Basketball Association regular season is set to end on February 15, 2012. At this point all three Nuggets affiliated players’ teams are likely to make the playoffs as they are lined up third through fifth in the 17 team league. If any or all of them are knocked out before March 15 they would be eligible for sign and trade deals giving the Nuggets additional flexibility. Of course, all three might be playing past the March 15 trade cutoff, but it will make the Chinese Basketball playoffs even more interesting than ever, which of course, would not be difficult.

– Jeremy

Update 5:13 PM MST

The Denver Nuggets have signed UTEP’s Julyan Stone to a contract, according to the El Paso Times. Stone is a 6-7 guard who has the ability to play multiple positions on the floor. He is both Conference USA and UTEP’s all-time leaders in assists, and is the only player in school history to be top 10 in both assists and rebounds. He is also an excellent defender, being named to Conference USA’s All-Defensive team. In UTEP’s only game in the NCAA tournament last year against Butler, Stone went for eight points, five rebounds, seven assists and two steals. According to Alex Kennedy, the deal is worth $1.1 million over two years.

Quick reaction: Stone was a popular name leading up to the draft last year, especially among Lakers Nation. I remember examining him briefly and being impressed with his distribution skills given how tall he is. There was buzz that he would go to the Lakers, but they instead went with another sleeper point guard in Andrew Goudelock. This acquisition is just further corroboration to the argument that Masai is a brilliant scout. I fully expect Stone to fit in perfectly with the Nuggets given his wide-ranging skill set and tenacity on the defensive side of the ball.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/09/free-agency-digest-day-one/feed/84Can a New CBA Help the Denver Nuggets be Contenders?http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/10/05/cba-denver-nuggets-contender/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/10/05/cba-denver-nuggets-contender/#commentsWed, 05 Oct 2011 07:06:59 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=2587Your loyal and friendly Denver Nuggets bloggers here at Roundball Mining Company have not published anything of consequence regarding the current labor conflagration which now has the NBA on the brink of missing regular season games. The fact of the matter is that the range of possibilities was so far reaching that any kind of analysis would have been complete speculation – not that there is anything wrong with that, this is a blog after all. We have chosen to stay on the sidelines and patiently await some signs of movement in the negotiations.

The chances of both parties reaching an agreement in time to avoid losing any regular season games is remote; however, there has been significant movement over the previous few days that has displayed a glimmer of hope that any delay in the start of the regular season could be kept to a minimum.

According to variousreports the owners have relented on their desire for a hard cap, the death of fully guaranteed contracts, rolling back existing salaries and today came off of their insistence that players not receive any more than 46% of all Basketball Related Income.

In other words, any dreams of fans from small market teams waking up one morning and finding an NFL style structure in place have gone unanswered. For the most part the framework for the next CBA preserves most of the key features of the old CBA. Still, there is hope that a more equitable system will be in place when the 2011-12 season gets underway.

The secondary issues that will determine the underlying dynamics of the new agreement are the luxury tax penalty, how exceptions – especially the Mid-Level Exception – are handled and expanded revenue sharing. If the owners get their way with these issues, it could – and I stress could – make things a little easier for small market teams to compete on a more consistent basis.

First of all, the owners are seeking to make the luxury tax a greater deterrent by increasing the penalty. There are several teams whose owners will avoid the luxury tax at all costs, even if it is only a dollar for dollar penalty. If that penalty is increased the number of teams willing to dip their toe into the tax waters will certainly decrease. Over the previous two seasons exactly half of the teams in the NBA have submitted a luxury tax payment at the end of the season. A more stringent penalty could greatly reduce that number from 15 down to five or six. No tax will slow down the Lakers or Knickerbockers, but if the tax is more punitive, it will limit which teams are willing to overspend. Of course the players know this so any chances of seeing a drastic increase in the luxury tax are low. Even so, any increase in tax severity will help level the playing field.

Next we turn our gaze to the various exceptions that are currently in place that allow teams over the cap to still bid for free agents. The owners are seeking to limit the number of “Bird” free agents to one per year. I can see why this makes sense to them on paper as it would help keep salaries down. However, the Bird Rights are typically a big tool to be used to keep your current free agents in town. Owners have fought in the past to enact rules to help them retain their players, such as allowing teams to resign their own free agents to an extra season with higher annual raises. I doubt we see this change implemented.

The exception that does by far the most damage to the league is the MLE or Mid-Level Exception. A great many atrocities against fiscal responsibility have been delivered via the MLE. Look no further than Denver’s signing of Al Harrington last summer. When a team is over the cap the only way they can make a serious bid for a player other than a minimum salary roster filler is the MLE – and there is the Bi-Annual Exception, but that is not financially significant. As a result every contending team, or team who wants to make their fans think they are trying to contend, throws their full MLE at players who are anywhere from poor to decent or even solid contributors, but not good enough for their previous team to hang onto. Players argue that teams should just be smarter and not sign undeserving players to those big contracts. The argument does make sense. Of course, in practice it is not so easy. Teams only have so many options available to themselves every summer to improve their team. To let one of those options go simply is difficult to do. When other teams are adding players and apparently improving themselves it is painful to see free agency crap shoot close with a big round of ammunition still in the chamber. Of course, if teams did stop handing out these obviously horrific deals players would cry collusion, but that is beside the point.

The bottom line is the MLE has to go and I believe it will. With the number of concessions, real or imaginary, the owners are giving I see them having the leverage to dig in their heels on the MLE. With a reduced MLE well run teams can more cheaply add decent players without hamstringing themselves down the road. The option to use the cheaper MLE in successive seasons without causing irreparable damage to their payroll will be available as well.

For the Nuggets recent MLE booby trap the real travesty of the Al Harrington signing is not that he was paid $5.765 million in 2010-11, it is that he is scheduled to make $6.69 million two years from now when he is in his 15th season in the league. That is simply untenable for a team like Denver. Paying a player that kind of money when he will likely not even be one of their top eight or nine players is very damaging to their ability to compete. However, at the time that is the price they had to agree to in order to sign him when they were trying to make a splash to keep Carmelo Anthony in Denver.

The final major piece of the puzzle is revenue sharing. There are significant problems with revenue sharing. Look at baseball where small market teams are content to rake in their payments from the big boys and just stash it in the bank as opposed to spending it on putting a better team on the field. Some of those teams will turn a profit whether even one fan walks through the gates or not. Revenue sharing can be a nice boost for teams who do not have the massive revenue streams of teams like the Lakers, Knicks or the Bulls; however, if the owner is not willing to use that money to increase the competitiveness of his squad, it really has done nothing but make the franchise a better investment.

One other proposal that the owners have supposedly put on the table is a second round of get out of one terrible contract free cards, otherwise known as amnesty. The players will certainly go for it as it actually puts more money in their pockets due to the fact the waived player gets his money anyway, and can cash in on a second contract with a new team. Plus this instance of amnesty will reportedly include canceling the players’ salaries from the luxury tax and the salary cap as well. That opens up room for more spending on players who are theoretically worth the investment. By the way, there is one player on the Nuggets who is has a roughly 100% chance of experiencing amnesty and that is the only player on the roster with a full MLE contract, none other than the aforementioned Al Harrington.

Some fans, and owners for that matter, may be disappointed to see a hard cap slide off the table as the ship that is the NBA labor negotiations lists from side to side. The truth is with such small rosters and microscopic number of championship caliber franchise players teams are still going to be held hostage by players who long for greener pastures and the big market teams will always have a huge advantage.

The chances of small market teams will depend greatly on possessing superior management and a great deal of luck – you can read my treatise from last summer on that issue here. I will always believe luck is the primary determining factor in which teams succeed and which teams flounder in the NBA and no CBA will change that.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/10/05/cba-denver-nuggets-contender/feed/1Analysis and Thoughts on Trading Carmelo Anthony to the New York Knickshttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/02/22/carmelo-anthony-trade-new-york-knicks-2/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/02/22/carmelo-anthony-trade-new-york-knicks-2/#commentsTue, 22 Feb 2011 10:02:19 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=2156Almost exactly eleven months ago I wrote the following:

Frankly, the chances of us seeing Melo take Manhattan are quite slim. Even so, if you’re a Nuggets booster, you might want to pray that a couple of big names take the Knicks’ money this year, just to be safe.

Fast forward to February 21, 2011 and the rumor that I could not believe I was asked to write about at the time has come to fruition. After all the rumors and hearsay we have arrived at the outcome most experts and fans alike expected. Carmelo Anthony is now a New York Knickerbocker and is free to sign his coveted extension before the current CBA expires. He found his way to the market and is going to get all the money.

Nuggets fans have had several months to come to grips with Carmelo’s departure. Even the most hardcore fans saw the writing on the wall weeks ago. As hardened to the reports as many fans became, the final news that Denver has traded away quite possibly the most talented player in franchise history brought a flood of emotion.

Closing the Book on an Era

No Nuggets fan needs to be reminded of the wasteland that was the Denver Nuggets prior to Carmelo Anthony’s arrival. Melo was the champion college player who was going to lift the franchise to unseen heights. Viewed as a young scorer with nearly limitless potential Melo embodied a new hope for Nuggets fans.

Denver had missed the playoffs for eight straight seasons until Carmelo’s rookie season. Denver secured the eighth seed thanks in large part to some late game heroics by Carmelo in game 80 at home against the Trail Blazers. An overmatched Nuggets squad gave the top seeded Minnesota Timberwolves a battle on the way to a 4-1 first round loss. What appeared to be a sign of things to come actually turned out to be a literal sign of things to come.

Carmelo improved and became a deadly scorer, but the Nuggets continued to suffer first round loss after first round loss. Despite having talented, although as Charlie pointed out ill-fitting, supporting cast mates throughout the years Denver remained a mere speed bump for the best teams in the Western Conference as Melo largely struggled through some difficulties in the postseason. Melo rarely experienced his best moments during games when the phrases “best of seven” or “if necessary” were involved.

Melo was given a gift when the Denver Nuggets were able to exchange Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups. Chauncey was a near perfect fit at the point for Denver and his presence helped push the Nuggets to the Western Conference finals and not coincidentally Melo played the best basketball of his career on the way. Sadly, Denver was crushed by the Lakers in game six at the Pepsi Center to end the series with Melo experiencing a throwback performance harkening back to his previous playoff struggles.

Denver would play one more playoff series with Carmelo and while he once again shined offensively, the Nuggets fell to the rival Utah Jazz despite having home court advantage.

The final record of the Carmelo Anthony era in Denver will show that while he brought league wide relevance, a sting of highlights and team records the final result was mediocrity, first round playoff losses and unfulfilled potential. The ultimate verdict is Melo never developed that special and difficult to quantify ability of making everyone around him better. Carmelo certainly took the pressure off those he played with due to all the attention opposing defenses paid to him. However, he was just as likely to take a midrange jumper against a double team as pass to a cutting teammate. Yes, it was impressive when he made the heavily contested jumper, but it did not lead to championship level basketball.

In the end I believe it was fitting that he final game Carmelo played as a member of the Denver Nuggets was the All-Star game. He always talked about winning, but his conduct on the court made it appear he was more interested in scoring titles and All-Star appearances.

Over the years Nuggets fans have seen Carmelo grow up off the court, but never mature on it. I doubt he will ever be plagued again by the image/legal issues that dogged him as a young man and I say that to his credit. On the basketball court, he has yet to reach the point where he will sell out on both ends for 48 minutes and do whatever it takes to win. You have to wonder if he ever will, especially now that he has had two teams cave into his demands and will now fulfill his dream of playing under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden.

I hope Carmelo does one day figure it out because he has the ability to be a very special player, and not just as a scorer. If only it had happened in Denver…

The Trade

Maybe Carmelo was destined to end up in New York from the start and if that is indeed the case the Nuggets front office can feel good that they were able to complete a trade that will certainly help Denver remain competitive in the short term while opening up some significant flexibility in the long term. By my calculations Denver saves over $17 million in overall salary, which gets them under the luxury tax line and will save some serious cash in player costs between now and the end of the season. It is not easy to save that kind of money dealing with two other teams who do not have space under the cap to take on salary. Dan Feldman at the exceptional Detroit blog Piston Powered estimates the Nuggets will save nearly $35 million over the next three seasons. Some of that will be chewed up with other contracts, but it shows even though players like Al Harrington and Chris “Birdman” Andersen were not included the Nuggets are certainly pocketing significant savings.

From a player standpoint, Denver did not bring back any player capable of becoming a future franchise star, but they certainly added depth and competency.

Raymond Felton is a good point guard and while he lacks Chauncey’s long range marksmanship, he is certainly an upgrade nearly everywhere else. He has the potential to be the pick and roll partner with Nene that Chauncey never was.

Wilson Chandler is a hardnosed player who after four years in the NBA and at 23 is coming into his own, but I doubt he has much more room to grow from a talent stand point. He plays with poise and is a solid defender and can play three positions. He has gone on record of wanting to remain in New York and is in line for a raise as a restricted free agent following the season.

The player I am most excited about is Danilo Gallinari. Gallo is a young confident player with a nice stroke from behind the arc. He has a bit of a nasty streak and is capable of attacking the rim with ferocity. Defensively he is limited by his lateral movement, but as we saw two years ago at MSG, he is not afraid to take on a challenge when he frustrated Carmelo with his scrappy high energy defense. He can play small forward, but perhaps his best attribute is his ability to be a stretch four. The downside is he is a poor rebounder for his size and like Chandler preferred to remain a Knick. He is under contract for just under $4.2 million in 2011-12 and has a qualifying offer of $5.6 million in the summer of 2012.

Timofey Mozgov is a big man who does not rebound particularly well and offensively is only a threat at the rim. He is best known for making Blake Griffin even more famous than he already is. For Nuggets fans who longed to have a “true center” next to Nene, Mozgov is probably not the guy you have been pining for.

Denver will also enjoy a massive trade exception from this deal. If my understanding of the CBA is correct it could be in the range of $16 to $18 million which is large enough to acquire any superstar player in the NBA not named Kobe, KG or Duncan without giving up a player. That is powerful asset and depending on how far they get below the luxury tax line could potentially be a team who could help another team dump some salary before the trade deadline on Thursday (although that would certainly be unlikely).

Finally, Denver did receive a 2014 first round pick from the Knicks which will likely be in the twenties and two second round picks from Golden State in 2012 and 2013. The benefit to be derived from these selections is likely to be negligible.

Future of the Denver Nuggets

Denver no longer has a “franchise player” and there is no guarantee they will have one anytime soon. In a league where you apparently need at least three All-Star caliber players to win a title, Denver has zero. As dire as that sounds I believe the primary fear for Nuggets fans should be the curse of mediocrity. I wholeheartedly believe the Nuggets as constructed will remain a playoff team. They will certainly fall from their perch atop the league in offensive efficiency, but now that the rumors are behind them and they can focus on winning games and proving people wrong you can expect to see their atrocious defensive efficiency rating begin to drop.

The true risk of this trade is it is entirely possible the Nuggets will not experience the bottoming out that is vital for small market teams to develop a contending team. Franchise players arrive in small markets via the draft and without a high pick to select such a player you do not get one. The Indiana Pacers are the perfect example. After they saw a contending team crumble after the Rumble in the Palace in 2004-05 the Pacers have yet to draft any higher than tenth and as a result they have a team that is not good enough to win anything of significance and not bad enough to draft high enough to land a player who is talented enough to change their fortunes. In my mind that is worse than being bad year after year.

Clearly Denver is no longer even a dark horse of a contender, but they are still a solid team. Even if they trade Mozgov along with one of the three starting caliber players the received from the Knicks, as has been reported here, they will have plenty of talent. Even if Denver falls out of the playoff race, they will be drafting late in the lottery. There is a real danger of seeing a leveling off which could turn them into a team not good enough to compete for anything of value and not bad enough to acquire a star.

The Nuggets did secure some significant cap flexibility in the near future which in a tighter financial climate very well could provide them with opportunities to bring in promising young players and draft picks. Even so that flexibility is limited as Denver will be paying someone to play in the Mile High City and with players like Lawson, Afflalo and Chandler/Gallinari looking for new contracts in the next year or two, rumors of extending Nene and the failure to include Al Harrington or Chris Andersen in order to shed their long term deals Denver is going to be running a thrift store. Still, the Nuggets are in a position to completely reshape the roster.

It still remains to be seen if George Karl will return to coach in Denver next season. I believe with the Nuggets having completed the trade with New York they are likely to fall along the path of what Karl has called “retooling” instead of rebuilding. With a team geared more towards winning than tanking I expect Karl to return for at least one more season after this. If he does not it will probably be more due to cost cutting than organizational differences.

In the short term, Denver may prove to be a more consistent team now that the trade rumors are in the past and the team can simply focus on basketball. They certainly lost some offensive punch with Melo and Chauncey departing. While team defense requires cohesion which comes with practice and familiarity, I believe the Nuggets will be better on defense and might prove to be a feisty team through the remainder of the season.

What Have We Learned?

As careful as Carmelo was to avoid stumbling down the same path that led LeBron to his public enemy number one status we have learned that there is no graceful way to force your way off the only team you have ever played for. Carmelo never proclaimed he wanted to be traded or he wanted out of Denver, but only a select few hardcore fans fell for his act. In the end he might still love Denver, but he wanted something else and you cannot sugar coat that fact to fans.

If Carmelo did anything wrong it was sabotage what would have been this group’s one last shot at competing together and he ruined any hope of a storybook comeback from cancer by George Karl. If we are honest with ourselves, this team was not going to seriously challenge for a title. Not with the banged up bigs and not with Carmelo as the alpha dog.

Perhaps there can be some good to come out of this. With Carmelo forcing his way out of Denver we have had three franchises lose their star player in less than nine months. In the past the owners have sought to give the incumbent team an advantage when it came to retaining stars, whether it was the Bird exception, or longer contracts with greater raises. Perhaps the new CBA will have a mechanism that will level the playing field even more. Sadly, the consequence of that action could be to ensure the Heat remain the only super team in the league. Then again as long as it is a players’ league, and as long as those players can level credible threats at their teams maybe what the CBA stipulates simply will not matter.

Goodbye Chauncey

The most difficult aspect of the trade to swallow is the inclusion of Chauncey Billups. I have already expressed what my heart wants for Chauncey, but my mind struggles to reconcile keeping a shoot first point guard making that much money on the roster when Ty Lawson is ready to take over now. As much as I love Chauncey familiarity breeds contempt and I have seen too many bad threes and not enough calming influence from him on the court. I know I am completely contradicting myself, but such is life when we have to reconcile our feelings with logic.

In the end all I can say is thank you Chauncey for the playoff run of 2009 and good luck to you in New York. Hopefully our paths will cross again soon.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/02/22/carmelo-anthony-trade-new-york-knicks-2/feed/12Someone is a Geniushttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/02/21/nuggets-mozgov-nets/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/02/21/nuggets-mozgov-nets/#commentsTue, 22 Feb 2011 01:37:08 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=2143I do not know who made the call, but I am supremely impressed with someone. Whoever came up with the idea of trading Timofey Mozgov along with another Knick teammate, according to SI.com it would be Danilo Gallinari, from Denver to New Jersey may have ensured a deal will be completed and will be responsible for putting an end to all this Melo hysteria.

I have contended the Nuggets need the Nets to keep their offer on the table to ensure there is competition for Carmelo’s services and thus the Knicks cannot low ball Denver as they did before New Jersey reentered the picture. By linking the completion of the trade with the Knicks to a second trade with the Nets has ensured all three teams will get something.

With the Nets receiving Mozgov and a second quality small forward in exchange for two first round picks, they now need to keep their deal on the table so that New York is not in a position to reduce their offer for Carmelo. The Knicks now know that Denver must have Mozgov in order to send on to the Nets and if they choose not to include him, the Nuggets can tell Carmelo he can either go to New Jersey or stay in Denver.

As I said, I do not know who to praise for this stroke of genius, but Al Iannazzone suggests it was the Nets who chose to force the Knicks to add one more piece and actually benefit from it. If the Knicks ultimately decide Mozgov is too much to sacrifice, New Jersey may actually end up with Carmelo after all.

The Nuggets would also be big winners as they would now receive three first round picks (of varying value) two players from the threesome of Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari, Corey Brewer and some immediate significant salary relief. That is a pretty good haul for a team who was thought at times to be in over their head and without any leverage.

I only wish I knew who I should be impressed with.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/02/21/nuggets-mozgov-nets/feed/1Carmelo Anthony Trade Watch – Any Day Now…http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/02/20/carmelo-anthony-trade-watch-any-day-now/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/02/20/carmelo-anthony-trade-watch-any-day-now/#commentsMon, 21 Feb 2011 00:24:05 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=2136According to reports that are reportedly verified by actual reporters Carmelo Anthony has met with groups from the New York Knickerbockers and New Jersey Nets and both teams have submitted their “best” offers and that brings us to what will undoubtedly be the climax of this side show that has kept players, fans and front offices alike entrapped for months.

Denver has three options at this point:

1) Accept the Knicks offer of Danilo Gallinari, Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler and a future first round pick (and probably a player or two coming to Denver from Minnesota). This is certainly the safest choice and also the most likely outcome. Denver gets a solid young prospect in Gallinari, a point guard who can replace Chauncey Billups and a solid small forward in Chandler who along with Gallinari could probably replace 80% of the offense Denver received from Melo and more than surpass what Melo offered defensively. While it is the safest route and could likely be completed in short order, it also provides a package of lower ceiling players and only one first round pick which is also of limited value.

2) Tell Carmelo the Knicks do not have the assets to acquire him and let him know if he wants his extension, which we know he does, he will have to either accept the trade to New Jersey or remain in Denver. This option would be considerably risky. Perhaps Melo accepts the trade to New Jersey and signs his extension there and the Nuggets receive the windfall of players and draft picks from the Nets. Of course, Melo does not just have to go along. He could call their bluff and inform Denver he has no desire to play for either team and that he will play out his contract to become a free agent. As soon as that happens, the Knicks no longer need to compete with the Nets and are free to reduce their trade offer back down to next to nothing.

3) Continue to wait out both the Knicks and Nets in an attempt to get more in exchange for the most important Nuggets player in more than two decades. Denver has proven to be difficult to nail down in the months and months of negotiations and there is no telling what they might demand next. They could change their minds again and decide the Knicks or Nets have to take on Al Harrington’s bloated contract or another equally frustrating demand. This option contains the greatest amount of risk. There is the slight chance such a gambit could work now that owners, who are generally shortsighted, are involved. The other side of that coin is if the Nuggets get greedy again, especially after supposedly coming to an agreement with the Nets for the second or maybe even the third time, it very well could result in one or both teams walking away from the table. And if even one team throws in the towel, Denver will lose what little leverage they have left.

As time passes the Nets will likely become more and more dubious that Carmelo will agree to join them and they will realize they are being used to help Denver maintain leverage with the Knicks. The longer this drags out the less stable the situation becomes. The one thing Denver has in their favor is there are two owners who are willing to tamper with their teams in order to acquire Carmelo. As long as that is the case, Denver has a chance to come out of this nightmare with some hope for the future. On the other hand the longer they wait to pull the trigger, the greater the chance everything they have negotiated for since September could be taken away by someone simply voicing the word, “No.”

Update: According to Alan Hahn of New York Newsday Denver is staying true to form and the Nuggets have selected option three apparently telling the Knicks if they do not include rookie center Timofey Mozgov, Carmelo will be traded to the Nets. Of course, if the Knicks pass and then Melo passes on the Nets, the Nuggets will have lost any chance of getting anything of value from anyone. I have not seen much of Mozgov, but the stats suggest he is a poor rebounder, a rebound rate of 12.8, who can score around the basket, but still tries to shoot jumpers from time to time. Plus he is 24 a fact which truncates his upside. With a PER of 10.34 upside is required. I have a difficult time seeing either team walk away over Mr. Mozgov.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/02/20/carmelo-anthony-trade-watch-any-day-now/feed/7Taking Stock of the Carmelo Anthony Trade Sagahttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/02/16/taking-stock-of-the-carmelo-anthony-trade-saga/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/02/16/taking-stock-of-the-carmelo-anthony-trade-saga/#commentsWed, 16 Feb 2011 06:09:07 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=2110By the time you read this we are going to be less than 200 hours away from the 2011 trade deadline and with all the information that has been spewed out between the start of training camp and today it is time to take a step back and reanalyze the lay of the land.

These are the facts:

Carmelo Anthony wants to play in New York.

Carmelo Anthony wants to cash in on the three year extension which is available to him up until June 30, 2011.

The Denver Nuggets are motivated to trade Carmelo and desperately want to avoid a situation where they are stuck receiving a trade exception and a couple of worthless first round picks in a sign and trade deal after the season.

The Knicks are very interested in Carmelo Anthony and are willing to part with some assets in order to acquire them.

There are teams willing to trade for Carmelo even without Melo agreeing to an extension.

The Nuggets are looking for a trade where they save money this year and long term, receive at least on quality young prospect and at least one first round pick.

In a deal of this magnitude owners are getting involved with Stan Kroenke wielding a veto in Denver, Mikhail Prokhorov having put his foot down in New Jersey and James Dolan primed to get involved in New York. Mark Cuban has made several public statements regarding Melo as well.

Most importantly of all, the Knicks have retired number 15 not once, but twice!

Finally, the NBA will be operating under a new CBA when the next free agency period commences and the only way the Knicks can guarantee that Carmelo Anthony will be playing for them whenever the next season starts is to trade for him before the end of June.

Add it all up and it is clear no individual or team possess enough leverage to unilaterally impose their desired resolution.

Melo wants his money and the big market, but unless the Knicks meet the Nuggets demands, he may miss out on one or the other. Denver needs to get something for Melo now or risk getting nothing, or next to nothing, in the offseason. The Knicks can wait and sign Melo, but doing so would run the risk of the new CBA possessing some form of franchise player tag, or the cap being lowered to the point they would have to gut their roster in order to free anywhere near max money. The Nuggets’ hands are tied by Melo’s known desire to play for the Knicks, but they control whether or not Melo gets both the money and the market, based on what they do with him over the next two weeks.

That is a tangled web and even though we can lay all of that out and understand it there are several major questions that remain unanswered.

If Melo has to choose between signing his extension and playing in New York, which will he choose? Will he sign the extension with Denver if they do not trade him simply to make sure he gets paid under the current CBA, or will he forgo the extension to sign with New York? It is possible Melo himself does not know what he will do in just such a situation and is hoping to avoid having to make this choice at all costs.

Will the Nets come back to the table? My gut tells me they will place one final call to the Nuggets with a take it or leave it offer which even if it is scaled back from what they were willing to give up in the past, could still possibly trump anything New York would be willing to do.

How does Donnie Walsh’s contract play into this? If he fails to acquire Melo he may very well not have his contract option for next season activated by Dolan. Will he do what it takes to make his owner happy to ensure he has a job after the season?

If the trade deadline arrives with no acceptable trade having been offered to Denver, will they just jump at the best available offer, regardless of how insipid it may be, to avoid losing Melo for nothing?

What kind of pressure will be applied by Carmelo’s representation at CAA, Leon Rose and William Wesley, upon the Nuggets to send Anthony to New York? Will they go so far as to threaten to direct their clients elsewhere in the future in order to get Carmelo to his desired destination so that he can sign his extension as a Knick? Keep in mind Ty Lawson is a CAA client and he will be a restricted free agent two summers from now.

When you consider no one holds all the cards, but everyone has something to lose there will certainly be some tense moments shared amongst the major players prior to the deadline. The fortunes of at least two franchises may be altered and numerous players and their families could be uprooted in an instant.

You may be sick and tired of all the hype and conjecture, but this is about as high stakes as things get in the sports world and every basketball fan should be intrigued by the resolution of this ongoing soap opera.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/02/16/taking-stock-of-the-carmelo-anthony-trade-saga/feed/2The Melo Market has Bottomed Outhttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/02/07/the-melo-market-has-bottomed-out/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/02/07/the-melo-market-has-bottomed-out/#commentsMon, 07 Feb 2011 08:46:46 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=2079After months of rumors, sporadic play on the court, booing fans, speculation out the yin yang, millions of words written in newspapers, magazines, on the internet, in emails, in tweets, spoken around the water cooler and thousands of potentially productive man hours lost to fiddling with the ESPN.com Trade Machine the Carmelo Anthony saga appears to have hit rock bottom. There are multiplereports that the Nuggets are in negotiations in a three team trade that would send Carmelo to New York in exchange for Wilson Chandler, Corey Brewer a future first round pick from the Timberwolves, and if I understand things correctly, an eight digit trade exception. That is it. No Danilo Gallinari, no multiple first round picks and no dynamic young player with promise.

Before you completely discount the rumor as being something the Nuggets would never agree to, which my first inclination, keep one thing in mind. While it is certainly the worst deal for Denver that has been leaked from a talent standpoint it would save the Nuggets roughly $15 million dollars this season. Denver would be sending out Carmelo’s $17.1 million salary and only taking back $5.8 million providing roughly $4 million in salary savings over the final few months as well as over $11 million in luxury tax payments. No other trade I have heard or read about would save Denver so much short term money.

Even so, this trade is rife with inadequacies and I cannot imagine the Nuggets hamstringing themselves for the future in exchange for some short sighted savings. Wilson Chandler has turned himself into a nice player, but if he is the headliner in a trade that sends Carmelo to New York the Nuggets will be in big trouble. The drop off this season may not be overly dramatic. In fact, I could see a team of Billups, Afflalo, Chandler, Kenyon, Nene and the solid bench remaining a playoff team. However, as I pointed out above there is no young player who could potentially become the next franchise player, let alone even a good second banana on a contending team in the trade.

Second of all, Chandler is slated to be a restricted free agent whenever the next free agent period is. With the Nuggets looking to rebuild, I am not sure the best thing for the franchise is shelling out a new long term deal to Chandler. The best case scenario is to complete a sign and trade for him. The question is what could Denver receive in return? I find it difficult foreseeing the Nuggets acquiring a significant asset in exchange for Chandler.

Next, it may sound exciting to have the rights to a first round pick from a team run by David Kahn. The issue is the Wolves already owe their 2012 first round pick to the Clippers thus the Wolves could not send the Nuggets their 2011 or their 2013 first round picks. That does not mean Minnesota could not give the Nuggets a first rounder in June.

The Wolves do own the rights to two future first round picks that could be substituted for their own thanks to the dumping of Al Jefferson. Minnesota will receive Utah’s first rounder in the 2011 draft unless the Jazz somehow fail to qualify for the playoffs. As of today’s standings that would be the 19th pick. Not all first round picks are created equal and Utah’s selection is far from an enticing asset.

Minnesota could also convey a future first round pick from Memphis although it is heavily protected through 2015 ranging from lottery protected in 2011 to top nine protected in 2015 at which point the draft pick would go away in favor of a cash payment. With Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol heading into free agency after this season I can easily see a scenario where Memphis is a bottom nine team over the next four seasons. Even if Memphis manages to play well enough they win enough games where the pick is transferred it is going to be at best a late lottery pick. With the Wolves getting Utah’s 2011 pick, I believe it would allow them to trade their own 2011 first rounder although I cannot envision even the infamous Kahn giving away what will likely be a top three pick for Anthony Randolph.

My penultimate issue with the rumored trade is the fact Denver does not dump any of their long term contracts. Not even Renaldo Balkman’s tiny contract is included let alone Al Harrington or Chris Andersen’s deals. The only assets the Knicks would be sacrificing to acquire Melo are Chandler, who is replaced by Melo, Randolph, who does not play, and their future cap space which they would gladly spend on Melo anyway. I do not think having the Knicks toss in anther expiring contract, such as Keleena Azibuike, while taking back Harrington is too much to ask.

The final aspect of this trade that I dislike is the most talented player involved apart from Melo ends up in Minnesota. From the start I have said the player I would demand from the Knicks in any Melo trade is Anthony Randolph. His rising star has faded a bit as he has been chained to the bench in New York and his value has certainly decreased. Do not let that fool you, he is the kind of potential star player Denver should be looking to acquire. Randolph is still only 21, can rebound, block shots and has proven he can be an effective scorer when given the chance. I have no idea why he is not playing in New York. Whatever the reason is I would not let him go to another team in exchange for a draft pick of questionable value.

There is a strong movement afoot that the Knicks carry all the cards at this point. I disagree with that assessment. Denver still has the power of putting Melo in the position where he might lose a bundle of money by opting out of his deal after the season. Also, as Chad Ford pointed out the Knicks are not going to be in position to sign Melo to a max contract (Insider):

Even if the team were to renounce key players Chandler and Shawne Williams, along with Curry, Kelenna Azubuike and Roger Mason, they would have only $12.5 million or so in cap space (assuming no changes in the league’s salary cap). With Melo set to earn $18.5 million next year, that would be a huge pay cut.

Ford then points out the Knicks could free up near max money by trading Timofey Mozgov and Ronny Turiaf. The real kicker is New York would have to do all of that to offer Melo a max deal under the current salary cap. There is no way on God’s green earth the new CBA will have a salary cap number anywhere near the current amount. In order for the Knicks to be in position to give Melo a big payday, they would probably have to completely gut their team.

This is certainly not a secret to anyone involved and that is where Denver can derive their leverage. Carmelo has been open about his reluctance to miss out on his extension and if the price of playing in New York is to lose his guaranteed $83 million over the next four years to sign a contract for possibly half that much with the Knicks, you have to wonder if he is willing to pay it.

I firmly believe the Nets will come back to the table one last time prior to the deadline. Even if they do not, the difference between the worst case scenario of losing Melo for nothing and the three way trade we discussed earlier in this post is almost microscopic. The additions of the soon to be free agent Chandler, a mid first round pick and Corey Brewer are not the pieces you use to rebuild a franchise.

The added bonus of keeping Carmelo is it would allow Denver to focus on basketball for the first time all season. I agree with George Karl’s assessment that this is the best team he has had in Denver, at least from a talent standpoint. I would love to see how good they could be without the distractions and rumors holding them back.

If the best deal the Knicks are going to offer is the current one on the table, the Nuggets should tell the Donnie Walsh to get off the phone and pray he is not replaced by Isiah Thomas this summer. With the Knicks need to shed salary in order to sign Melo as a free agent Denver can get the same deal, if not a better one, in a sign and trade after the season. Then Denver fans can finally see how badly Melo wants out of town. Maybe there is a franchise player tag added in the new CBA or maybe, just maybe Melo relents and chooses the big payday in Denver over his “dream” to play in New York.

Whatever happens, there will be plenty more ink and pixels devoted to this ongoing quagmire until we are all put out of our misery.