The Coming Influenza Pandemic?

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Curtain Please

After a mind-boggling 1,245 posts spread out over what is approaching four years, I've decided to put an end to this blog. There are several reasons for it. First, readership is reaching pretty low levels, compared to where it had been in other years. Second, I have been increasingly unable to get the blog updated and it now looks like it might be difficult to update consistently over the next two months. And finally, there are now plenty of other sources for this information.

I had hoped to make it to the end of four years, at least, but it was not to be.

Thanks to everyone for reading and commenting as much as you have. This has been a great experience. I've had contacts with publications, major media outlets, great comments from people from all over the world, and a huge amount of education on the topic. I was even the Yahoo! site of the day at one point.

I started the blog on December 27, 2004 because I was planning to follow some news feeds on bird flu, and figured I might as well post them, too. It lasted far longer and generated far more interest than I thought it would. In the beginning, if it hadn't been for Recombinomics, there are many days when there would have been no news.

There are also certainly other similar blogs that give a similar outlook to the topic. I would point you to:

The researchers have determined the three-dimensional structure of a site on an influenza A virus protein that binds to one of the human protein targets, thereby suppressing a person's natural defenses to the infection and paving the way for the virus to replicate efficiently. This so-called NS1 virus protein is shared by all influenza A viruses isolated from humans, including avian influenza, or bird flu, and the 1918 pandemic influenza virus.

The message was simple. "It's about being prepared for the first 72 hours after an emergency-situation occurs. We want people to consider how they'll notify their families and where they'll meet," she said.

Is a global influenza pandemic on the way that could kill millions of people? Are we going to relive the horror of 1918? If it happens, are we even remotely prepared to save ourselves? Scientists from around the world are concerned about bird flu...since 2004 our site has tracked news of H5N1 influenza from around the world.

Is there anything we can do to avoid this course? The answer is a qualified yes that depends on how everyone, from world leaders to local elected officials, decides to respond. We need bold and timely leadership at the highest levels of the governments in the developed world; these governments must recognize the economic, security, and health threats posed by the next influenza pandemic and invest accordingly. The resources needed must be considered in the light of the eventual costs of failing to invest in such an effort. The loss of human life even in a mild pandemic will be devastating, and the cost of a world economy in shambles for several years can only be imagined.

ABC Primetime, September 2005

"Right now in human beings, it kills 55 percent of the people it infects," says Laurie Garrett, a senior fellow on global health policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. "That makes it the most lethal flu we know of that has ever been on planet Earth affecting human beings."

Dr. Robert Webster

Society just can't accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die. And I think we have to face that possibility," Webster said. "I'm sorry if I'm making people a little frightened, but I feel it's my role.

Dr. Robert Fedson

"There is nothing in Darwinian evolution that says that our DNA has to survive compared to say the DNA of an earthworm. I mean Darwinian evolution is completely indifferent to which DNA happens to persist. We are not necessarily unique as a species as far as evolution is concerned and we can disappear like other species have already disappeared."