Obradovich: GOP's time is now in Iowa

With Obama's job approval down and Branstad's up, Republicans face an easier climb

Jun. 12, 2013

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Some of the Republicans who have taken a pass on running for U.S. Senate may have been a bit too hasty in assessing the political landscape in Iowa.

U.S. Rep. Steve King is among those who have characterized the 2014 Senate race as an uphill battle for Republicans in light of President Obama’s second victory. “Iowa has turned a little to the left,” King said in April on the public television program “Iowa Press.”

For the moment, at least, the pendulum seems to be swinging back. The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll results released this week show Obama with his lowest job approval since taking office in 2009.

Meanwhile, Iowans gave Gov. Terry Branstad, a Republican, his best ratings of his current term.

The 41 percent of Iowa adults who approve of Obama’s performance and 54 percent who disapprove is worse than it was in September 2010, just two months before an election wave for Republicans. In fact, Iowans give Obama a worse review for managing the economy now, with 58 percent disapproving, than they did in February 2010, when the national unemployment rate was 9.8 percent. Last month, unemployment was 7.6 percent.

Sixty-four percent of Iowans disapprove of Obama’s handling of the budget deficit — the highest level of discontent since September 2010. But today, the federal deficit is actually falling, and it is falling faster than the Congressional Budget Office projected. The nonpartisan CBO credited higher-than-expected tax revenues and an increase in payments to the Treasury by mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

So what’s the problem? It seems pretty clear Iowans’ attitudes toward Obama have soured in light of a pack of scandals. A majority are concerned about the administration’s statements about the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, the Justice Department’s seizure of journalists’ phone records and the IRS’s scrutiny of conservative groups.

The poll of 809 Iowa adults was taken June 2 to June 5 by Selzer & Co. That was before the news had broken about the National Security Agency’s cellphone surveillance and moves to prosecute the man responsible for leaking the information. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

I asked U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, a Democrat running for Senate, whether he’s concerned the White House travails will hurt Democrats’ chances in 2014. He did not rush to defend the president’s performance.

“I’m not worried at all about the political impact of what the White House is doing. I’m worried about the significance to the American people of getting it right,” Braley said.

He noted that he has called for the White House to release currently classified video of the Benghazi attack — something that has not happened. “It’s an example of what I think the administration could be doing to get to the heart of some of the problems that have unfolded recently,” Braley said.

A lot can happen between now and November 2014. The sting of these fresh scandals will fade, and voter attitudes will be soothed if the economy continues to grow.

Even if Iowans are down on Obama, they won’t necessarily punish other Democrats. Sen. Tom Harkin, a Democrat who is not running for re-election, still gets approval from a slim majority of Iowans, although both he and Republican Chuck Grassley have slipped a few points since February.

Generally, however, the prospects in Iowa are even brighter for Republicans now than they were before the 2010 midterms. What may have looked like an uphill climb for the GOP a few months ago now seems like a flatter path.