Political Dynamics in the Maghreb

Major political changes have swept the Maghreb in the past several years. Tunisia and Libya experienced revolutions and continue to work to establish new political systems, and serious civil conflict continues in Libya. Morocco has undertaken gradual constitutional and political reforms, and Algeria is slowly grappling with changing regional and domestic environments. New opportunities have emerged for the people of the region to build more representative and accountable political institutions. At the same time, major challenges remain, and the future of the region is uncertain. Political actors disagree over the legitimacy of institutions, high unemployment and economic grievances persist, and old and new security threats distract from the routine challenges of governance.

The United States must increasingly address a mutating set of foes. Victory is unlikely to be found through defeating and eliminating these groups. Instead, the United States must work to change the political and social conditions that allow them to thrive.

Defining religious identity in the Maghreb has become an urgent challenge for governments fighting violent extremism. Nowhere is the battle as intense as in Tunisia, which is struggling to reshape its religious identity after more than a half century of state-imposed secularism.

The Arab revolts and revolutions of 2011 provided public space for violent extremist ideology to spread and reignited a debate over how to fight it. Among regional allies, the U.S. preference for democracy seems to be on the retreat while the impulse to regulate religion appears to be on the upswing.

Popular uprisings across North Africa have unleashed a new wave of jihadi-salafism that is increasingly mainstream and appeals to a younger generation of activists. This popular jihadi-salafism is less dramatic than al Qaeda’s version, but it will have a far greater impact on the region’s future.

Arab Gulf leaders are making clear the strategic importance they attach to North Africa through offers of aid and investment. But while Gulf leaders want to shape developments in the Maghreb, it is unclear what real political impact their actions have beyond affecting public perceptions.

The Maghreb is in motion. Political changes underway across North Africa have created opportunities for more representative and transparent governance. Debates over the nature of authority and the role of the state that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago now shape political discourse. And yet, doubts remain.

On October 6, 2011, Jon B. Alterman delivered this talk at the Marine Corps University in Quantico, VA, drawing on experience with transitions around the world to caution patience, identify the perils of U.S. bureaucratic politics, and highlight the importance of neighboring states.

On July 25, 2011, CSIS convened approximately 50 experts from the government, diplomatic and expert communities to analyze the way forward in Libya. The report outlines the different conclusions that were reached.

In the years since Mohammed VI ascended the throne, Morocco has taken many steps toward social, economic, and political transformation. The heightened importance Western powers ascribe to Middle Eastern reform and Morocco's prominence as both an example and test case of that reform raise a host of issues for Americans, Europeans, and Moroccans.

After a quarter century as a bête noire of international politics, fount of unpredictable proclamations, and supporter of innumerable liberation movements, Libyan policy has taken a decided turn toward engagement with the rest of the world.

Tunisian Prime Minister H.E. Mehdi Jomaa spoke about his government’s emphasis on ensuring a smooth path to new parliamentary and presidential elections while strengthening Tunisia’s future economic growth and stability at a CSIS Statesmen's Forum on April 2, 2014.

William Lawrence, visiting professor of political science and international affairs at the George Washington University, and Ellen Lust, associate professor of political science at Yale University, shared their assessments of the broader regional effects of developments in Egypt.

On November 2, 2012, CSIS hosted Tunisian Secretary of State for American and Asian Affairs Hedi Ben Abbes for a discussion of current dynamics in Tunisian politics. Dr. Ben Abbes discussed Tunisia’s transition and the ongoing debates related to the Constituent Assembly’s drafting of a new constitution.

On October 19, 2012, CSIS hosted Algerian Minister of State for Maghreb and African Affairs Abdelkader Messahel for a roundtable discussion of the conflict in Mali and regional insecurity.

On April 4, 2012, CSIS hosted Moroccan Minister of Communications Mustapha Khalfi for a roundtable discussion on the challenges of democratic reform in Morocco. Mr. Khalfi discussed the new government’s approach to governing and implementing reform.