The deal reportedly nearing completion isn't much different than
what's been reported in the past, though apparently Brooklyn is
trying to send the Orlando Magic another pick or asset instead of
Kris Humphries. While the details come into focus, one thing
is clear as the Montana sky in June.

There is no chance that Brook Lopez and draft picks would be the
best deal available on an open market. Howard is a
franchise-changing center. (Want evidence? Look how he changed
the dilapidated post-McGrady Magic franchise from a bottom-feeder
into a Finals team.)

If Chris Paul could pull a top prospect (Eric Gordon), a solid
prospect (Al-Farouq Aminu) and a high unprotected pick
(Minnesota's 2012 first), Howard should pull the same if not
more. (Lopez is far, far below Gordon in terms of value. Witness:
Gordon has a max offer in his pocket. Lopez, also a restricted
free agent, has ... nothing. He'll probably get about $10
million a year in this deal. Gordon's getting $14 million.)

The reason that the Howard deal will apparently be Lopez and
picks is because Orlando is not dealing with the open market. The
Magic are dealing with Dwight's limited market because he refuses
to sign an extension with any team but Brooklyn. That hasn't
stopped Orlando from talking with other clubs, but it damn sure
has stopped those clubs from presenting their best offers.

The L.A. Lakers might want to trade Andrew Bynum for Howard, and
Orlando may be willing to consider that. But if Howard promises
to leave for Brooklyn as a free agent in 2013, why would the
Lakers give up a top asset for a rental? The same applies to
other teams with deep asset pools. There's no sense selling the
family Buick so you can lease a Mercedes for a week.

And the whole thing has worked for Howard: he's probably going to
the Brooklyn Nets. Just like Carmelo Anthony went to the New York Knicks after waving his free
agency around like a sword. And Chris Paul went to Los Angeles,
one of his chosen cities. Players' preferences matter, because
free agency matters. This has always been the case, and will
always be the case because in the NBA having star players and
having success are so closely linked.

In fact, the NBA's attempts to give an advantage back to less
glamorous teams may have backfired. In the lockout deal, the
league boosted incumbent teams' ability to pay their own free
agents more over longer terms and put major restrictions on
sign-and-trades. No longer could players follow the LeBron James model in free agency.

Under that regime, players could receive all of the benefits of
staying with their home team (longer contracts, higher annual
raises) while leaving. All it took was to convince that team
losing the star to execute a sign-and-trade and pick up an asset
in the process. Incumbent teams could refuse and make
the players take smaller deals, but that rarely happened. Even
Cleveland Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert signed off on a LeBron
sign-and-trade to the Miami Heat days after his infamous dive into
Comic Sans.

The lockout deal prevents players from landing five-year deals or
max 7.5 percent annual raises in sign-and-trades. In these deals,
players will only get what they would as free agents: four-year
deals with 4.5 percent annual raises. There are also restrictions
in the pipeline on which teams can take on sign-and-trades—clubs
over the tax line won't be able to make those deals beginning in
a year.

So, the natural solution for Chris Paul and Dwight Howard? Avoid
the sign-and-trade entirely by making that trade request early.
Instead of having LeBrons and Boshes, we have CP3s and Dwights,
and the result is entirely the same: players get max contracts
with the teams they want, incumbent teams are forced to deal with
a market limited by the star's preferences.

The NBA limited superstars' power in free agency. The superstars
and their agents adapted and wield their power in a different
way. The result is the same: stars leave markets like New Orleans
and Orlando for places like Los Angeles and New York. Well, I'm
sure glad we fixed competitive balance last year.

The lockout was solely about money, and specifically the owners'
desire for more of it. Everything else was a planted distraction
designed to make the league's case smell better. We're watching
the facade crumble to the ground in Orlando right now.