Election Recap 2016: Our Thoughts on the Outcome

Simply put, the 2016 Presidential Election yielded the most
surprising outcome of our lifetime. Admittedly, it is too soon to comprehend
the magnitude of this electoral verdict, but here are a few takeaways:

Big Money
Cannot Beat Effective Messaging. Donald Trump unrelentingly seized on the
frustration with and disdain towards the way that Washington operates. This
message created a geographically broad-based wave of support that prevailed
over a far superior level of organization and deeper campaign coffers.

The Great
Divide. There is a massive disconnect between the people that govern our country in Washington, D.C., and those whom they serve. As a result, an anti-establishment message prevailed, and a new administration is tasked with governing in a hyper-polarized environment.

What Role Will Ohio Republicans Play in President Trump’s Administration?

The schism between the Trump campaign and Ohio Republicans
is well documented. In spite of this, Trump carried the state by a comfortable
margin.

Now as the Trump campaign transforms into an administration,
will an “Ohio Republicans Need Not Apply” sign be hanging on the front door of
the transition team headquarters? If not, then a number of upwardly mobile Ohio
Republicans could be in line for positions in Washington. Perhaps Ohio
Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor or Secretary of State John Husted may end up in
new positions in D.C. Also, current Congressman and former Dayton Mayor Michael
Turner might be an appealing choice for HUD Secretary. Former Ohio Secretary of State and Treasurer Ken Blackwell is already tapped to lead Trump's domestic transition team.

Ohio Continues to be the
Electoral Bellwether State

The days of media satellite trucks encircling our statehouse
on presidential election days appear poised to continue for the foreseeable
future. In spite of many Election Day predictions to the contrary, Ohio continues
to be in tune with the political trends of the country. No Republican has been
elected President of the United States without carrying the Buckeye State.

Setting the Field for 2018

While many Democrats have assumed that Richard Cordray will
be their white knight riding in from Washington, D.C., to be their party’s standard-bearer
candidate in the gubernatorial election, another contender with D.C.
connections might cut in line ahead of Cordray. Don’t rule out the possibility
that Senator Sherrod Brown will decide to run for governor. Given the dynamics
in Washington, Brown may feel called to try to be something other than a senator.
With Democrats failing to gain majority status in the Senate, Brown will not
become a committee chair in the new Congress. If Sherrod Brown has unfulfilled
dreams of being the governor of the state of Ohio, 2018 might be the right year
for him to follow his dreams. Politics is all about matchups. Brown’s thinking
may be that in 2006 he defeated Mike DeWine – the early favorite to be the
Republican nominee for governor – and could beat him again in 2018. Also, if
traditional electoral trends continue, President Trump’s first mid-term
election in 2018 could provide a lot of momentum for Democrats. Democratic
Party Chairman David Pepper’s plan of developing a deeper bench of local
officials from which to tap for statewide races will be tested in 2018.

Here is how the 2018 statewide slate is lining up:

Statewide Office

Republicans

Democrats

Governor

Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine, Secretary of State Jon Husted and Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor are all, in effect, running for governor.

Connie Pillich, former State Representative, former statewide candidate and veteran; Tim Ryan, U.S. House of Representatives; Joyce Beatty, U.S. House of Representatives, former Ohio House Minority Leader; Betty Sutton, former U.S. House Representative; Todd Portune, Hamilton County Commissioner; Sherrod Brown, U.S. Senator

Lieutenant Governor

Because candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run as a team, the identification of lieutenant governor candidates typically occurs late in the positioning process. Possible candidates include anyone who is talked out of running for any of other statewide offices. Also, Speaker Cliff Rosenberger (who is term-limited and cannot run for reelection in in 2018) could make a foray into a statewide candidacy.

Possible candidates include anyone who is talked out of running for any of the other statewide offices.

Auditor

Ohio Senate President Keith Faber appears to be positioning himself well to be the leading candidate for the party. Franklin County Auditor Clarence Mingo could run for this office as well.

Not clear, but possible candidates include anyone who is talked out of running for any of the other statewide offices.

Attorney General

Ohio Auditor Dave Yost appears to be in a leading position to be his party’s candidate.

Steven M. Dettelbach, former U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Ohio, Harvard Law School classmate of President Obama; Joe Schiavoni, current State Senator and Minority Leader (also a viable contender for Governor and Auditor)

Secretary of State

State Senator Frank LaRose of the Akron Area and State Representative Dorothy Pelanda of Marysville are both vying to be their party’s nominee.

Kathleen Clyde, current State Representative from Portage County; Alicia Reece, current State Representative from Hamilton County and president of the Ohio Legislative Black Caucus

Treasurer

Franklin County Auditor Clarence Mingo is probably in the best position to be the GOP nominee for this statewide post; however, Representative Bob Sprague of the Findlay area is also considering a run for this position.

David Leland, current State Representative from Franklin County

U.S. Senator

Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel is seeking a second opportunity to go head to head with Sherrod Brown. The two were previously opponents in 2012. However, Congressman Pat Tiberi, a close ally of Governor Kasich, positioned himself well with Ohio Republican National Convention attendees as a viable Republican candidate for the job.

Current Senator Sherrod Brown is expected to seek re-election to a 3rd term without a known primary opponent – but a gubernatorial race is rumored to be in his sights

Federal Spotlight

At the Congressional level, Ohio was a winner on Tuesday,
not because any one political party did particularly well, but because all the
incumbents in the state’s Congressional delegation held their seats, giving
every member an extra term of seniority. In Congress, a system that awards
longevity, this means that members of the Ohio Delegation are better situated
to nab seats on plum committees and win elections for other key positions. For
example, Steve Stivers is a – if not the – leading contender for the
chairmanship of the National Republican Congressional Committee. As Chair of
the NRCC, Stivers would be involved in all major policy and political
discussions among the leaders of the House Republicans. This gain could begin
to mitigate the loss in political clout that the Delegation suffered with the
resignation of Speaker John Boehner last year.

On the Senate side of Capitol Hill, Rob Portman will be in
line for more favorable committee positions and stands to exploit his emerging
seniority and continuing membership in the majority party.

A Peek at the Upcoming
Lame Duck Session

Energy

Ohio’s energy efficiency and renewable energy standards were
put on hold in 2014 with the passage of SB 310; however, this “time out” on the
energy standards expires at the end of the year. That means that, unless
legislation goes into effect prior to December 31, the standards will again
become the law of the land. There is significant interest among members of
Ohio’s General Assembly to enact legislation that will in some way replace or
amend the standards that are slated to come back on January 1. Mid-level
conversations have already occurred between those from the Ohio House and
Senate. Bear in mind that the fate of President Obama’s clean power plant rules
are now in flux between a Supreme Court awaiting a new, ideologically
conservative member and a President-elect that has voiced opposition to those
same rules.

Unemployment
Compensation

Passage of
HB 390 in May 2016 provided a mechanism for Ohio to fully pay off its
outstanding unemployment compensation loan balance. This moved federal employer
taxes back to $42 per employee (the lowest rate possible down from $147 per
employee) for 2016 and created mechanisms in state law to help raise revenue to
pay for future UI loans or interest on such loans. However, solvency remains a
critical topic of discussion in the Ohio General Assembly. The Unemployment
Compensation Joint Reform Committee wrapped up a series of hearings on November
3, 2016. The goal of the committee was to hear from all interested parties,
including representatives from the business and labor communities. What is
certain is that some form of reform is necessary to rebuild the fund to a
position of strength and solvency to weather the next economic downturn. What
elements make it into the reform package is yet to be determined. The
legislative language is likely to be a re-write of an existing unemployment
compensation reform bill, HB 394, with modifications to address issues that
have been raised throughout committee hearings. Elements such as increasing
taxes; reducing benefits; reducing fraud, waste and abuse in the system and
focusing on job creation to reemploy unemployed workers all are likely
components of a comprehensive reform package.

Opioid
Reform

The opioid addiction crisis and heroin epidemic have
commanded the attention of the Governor, with the issue forming the subject of
one of his mid-biennium review bills. SB 319, which unanimously cleared the
Senate just before summer, adds additional guardrails around the distribution,
control and sale of opioids and the drugs used to treat addiction, while
expanding medical treatment options for those who are unfortunately addicted.
General Assembly members are very interested in moving this bill as the crisis
continues to grow and constituents routinely raised the issue this past summer.
The Department of Mental Health and Addiction Services would adopt rules
specifying best practices, with updated licensing requirements for methadone
treatment facilities, and expanded services provided to specialized court
docket programs.

The Key
Issue in 2017: State Fiscal Obstacles

The Federal Government’s recent decision to eliminate the
Medicaid managed care organization sales tax has blown a huge hole in the
State’s budget – one that has a downstream impact on county and public transit
authority budgets, each of which relies on sales tax revenues. Currently,
Medicaid MCOs in Ohio are taxed at the regular sales tax rate (and sometimes
piggyback sales tax for certain transit authorities), which is then distributed
to the counties. The feds want Ohio to either levy a sales tax on services
provided by all MCOs – not just Medicaid MCOs – or to charge another type of
tax.

Some states have expanded the sales tax as the feds
required, while making a deal with the non-Medicaid MCOs through other tax
breaks or incentives or member assessments. Ohio will need to find a solution by
the time the Governor’s budget is released, likely in February next year. As it
stands now, counties across the state are projected to lose more than $146
million in operating revenue. Transit authorities’ losses exceed $80 million.

Statewide
Issues for Future Consideration

Earlier this week, the Attorney General certified a petition
for a proposed amendment to the Ohio Constitution that would impose term limits
on Ohio Supreme Court judges and remove privileges associated with serving and
working in the Ohio General Assembly. One section would prohibit a judge from
being elected or appointed to the Supreme Court if the judge has served nine or
more consecutive years as a judge on that court. The other section provides
that all laws that apply to the people of this State equally apply to the
members and employees of the General Assembly. The Attorney General’s certification
only means that the 1,000 signatures in support of the proposed amendment and
the description of its contents are fair and truthful. The supporters must
still clear the Ohio Ballot Board and thereafter collect over 300,000 valid
voter signatures from 44 Ohio counties before the language can appear on a
ballot.

Revisiting 2014 Predictions

In reviewing our 2014 Election Recap, we were correct on
most of our predictions for the 130th General Assembly’s lame duck
or this current biennium’s legislative sessions, and a few political predictions.
Kasich ran for president, he is tackling the issues related to drug addiction,
and the General Assembly passed bills concerning municipal income tax and
unemployment compensation. We predicted Ohio’s same-sex marriage
amendment would fall, changes in redistricting rules and legalization of
medical marijuana. Although we predicted the latter two issues would be
citizen-initiative rather than the legislature, we will still take the
credit.