A PERIOD OF WARMING WHERE TEMPS WILL REACH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY THEEND OF THE WEEK...WITH A POWERFUL COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THRU ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW DAYS OFSW FLOW THEN EXPECTED AS A POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM COMES ASHORE ANDSETS UP SHOP OVER THE ROCKIES FOR A DAY OR TWO BEFORE BEGINNING ASLOW EWD ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS. ASIDE FROM AN INITIAL IMPULSETHAT MOVES THRU WITH QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE ON FRIDAY NIGHT...PCPNCHCS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE STORM PROPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONGSFC CDFNT WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OF ANY PROXIMITY UNTIL SUNDAY.

LOOK FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FROM FRIDAY ON WITH A STOUT S SFCFLOW. TEMPS WILL TAKE A TUMBLE JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST RANGEDURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CHILLY AIRMASS SETTLES IN.

...DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A LARGE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN STATES ON FRI/D4...WITH AN INTENSIFYING JET CORE NOSING INTO CO BY 12Z SAT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM WRN MN SWWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND INTO WRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON SAT. SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT...AND STORMS WILL EASILY ERUPT ALONG IT.

HEATING IS EXPECTED TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS FROM KS INTO NEB...WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR N AS SWRN MN. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S F...INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. CAPPING SHOULD HAMPER DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE FRONT DUE TO COOL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. ALL THIS SUGGESTS A LINEAR STORM MODE IS LIKELY. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SUGGESTING CELLS MERGING...HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. WITH SUCH STRONG SHEAR...A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS MAY PRODUCE PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS.

SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS INTO IA...MO...AND OK. ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND SWWD INTO OK SAT NIGHT...THE OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

SOME SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUN/D6...FROM ERN OK INTO AR...NERN TX AND NRN LA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH A SQUALL LINE...BUT VERY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER AREAS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE LARGE POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN STATES...REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS BY SATURDAY. VORT MAX AND ITS ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET STREAK CURRENTLY OVER NRN CA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE CYCLONE OVER NEB/SD THAT WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO MN SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE SFC LOW WILL SWEEP SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM WRN WI SWWD THROUGH NWRN OK AND WRN TX BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

AN EML WITH 7.5-8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS ALREADY ADVECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. ELY TRAJECTORIES FROM A LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY OVER THE GULF...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S RETURNING THROUGH MOST OF THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH THE WARM EML COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MID-HIGH CLOUDS AS SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME IS TAPPED BY THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT LIKELIHOOD OF A STRONG CAP IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE...SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ZONE OF FRONTAL FORCING THAT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DEEPER CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEWD EJECTING UPPER JET STREAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS UPPER JET APPROACHES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 70 KT AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING LLJ. INITIAL SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...POSSIBLY BUILDING SWWD INTO WRN TX OR NWRN OK OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS...THROUGH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND LEWP STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

...SRN PLAINS...

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWWD ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT FROM WRN TX INTO NW OK. WITH DEEPER FRONTAL CIRCULATION PROMOTED BY THE MIGRATING UPPER JET EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION...CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION IS NOT AS HIGH AS FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER SW IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX...SERN OK INTO A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. LEAD VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT INTO SRN ONTARIO EARLY IN THE DAY...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH A SECONDARY VORT MAX WITHIN THE TROUGH BASE ADVANCES THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO ONTARIO WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS.

...NERN TX...SERN OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER THE WRN GULF WILL BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ TO ADVECT THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN TX...OK AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH. LIKELIHOOD OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS...PARTLY A RESULT OF STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND OVERALL DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...MLCAPE FROM 800-1200 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WITHIN ZONE OF RICHER MOISTURE RETURN FROM ERN TX...SERN OK INTO WRN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF OK...AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH INTO SERN OK AND NERN TX AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY REMAIN LINEAR SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR LEWP AND BOWING STRUCTURES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD...THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.

...MID MS VALLEY REGION...

A FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED IN THIS REGION THAN FARTHER SOUTH...AND THIS WILL PROBABLY SERVE TO MITIGATE A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCLUDED THIS REGION IN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES DUE TO AT LEAST MODEST POTENTIAL FOR THE CONVECTIVE BANDS TO TRANSFER HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

And the LORD spake, saying, "First shalt thou take out the Holy Pin, then shalt thou count to three, no more, no less. Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out. Once the number three, being the third number, be reached, then lobbest thou thy Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch towards thy foe, who being naughty in My sight, shall snuff it." Amen.