Nicola Sturgeon wins sympathy, not support

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to call another referendum on independence from the U.K. if there’s no other way for Scotland to stay in the EU once Britain leaves, she said Wednesday after meeting top European officials.

Following talks in Brussels that yielded plenty of sympathy but little in the way of encouragement, the Scottish National Party leader said she had not been expecting concrete commitments, but wanted to “make sure that Scotland’s voice is being heard” in the process of extricating Britain from membership of the EU following last week’s vote for Brexit.

“If we get to a point where it seems to be the case that the only way of protecting Scotland’s relationship with Europe is by looking at the option of becoming an independent country, then that’s a choice I think the Scottish people have a right to make. But I’m not saying that we’re at that point yet,” said Sturgeon, whose party narrowly lost an independence referendum in 2014.

Scotland’s predicament of “being taken out of the European Union against our will,” as the first minister put it, inspires plenty of sympathy in Brussels.

Scotland voted 62 percent in favor of remaining in the EU, while overall the U.K. voted 52 percent in favor of leaving. The SNP’s Alyn Smith won a standing ovation in the European Parliament on Tuesday when he begged fellow MEPs not to “let Scotland down” after it demonstrated its loyalty to the EU.

But, as Sturgeon told reporters following her talks with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker — who had warned beforehand that he did not want to “interfere in the British process” — sympathy “doesn’t translate into an automatic, easy path for Scotland.”

“Scotland does not have the competence to negotiate with the European Union” — Spain’s Mariano Rajoy

The first minister said she was encouraged by EU officials’ “willingness to listen” and wasn’t surprised by the negative remarks of some EU leaders — especially from Spain, which is trying to stop the secession of Catalonia — at an EU summit on Wednesday that discouraged any special treatment for the Scots.

“Scotland does not have the competence to negotiate with the European Union. If the United Kingdom leaves … Scotland leaves,” said Spain’s acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who is likely to lead a new coalition government after last Sunday’s inconclusive elections and is worried about the implications for Catalonia’s bid for independence, which Madrid opposes.

Rajoy was backed up at the EU summit by his French colleague François Hollande, who said talks on Britain’s future relationship with the EU “will be conducted with the United Kingdom, not with a part of the United Kingdom.”

Into the unknown

If she does hit a brick wall, the Scottish first minister is clearly willing to seek a second referendum on secession from Britain — and she indicated that the Scottish people might vote very differently this time, given the prospect of Britain’s exit from the EU.

“The country we voted to stay in in 2014 doesn’t exist any more, or won’t exist, because the U.K. will not be in the European Union,” she said. “In 2014 some people understandably … saw independence as a step into the unknown versus the known, stable quantity of the United Kingdom.”

‘I think it will be a very different debate from the one we had in 2014’ — Nicola Sturgeon

“That now I think is very different. The outlook for the U.K. as a result of this referendum is very uncertain and unstable and unpredictable, and in this context it may well be that Scotland looks to the option of independence as being an option we need to protect our stability, to protect our economy, to protect our place in the world.”

“If — and I stress the if at the moment — we find ourselves in a second independence referendum, I think it will be a very different debate from the one we had in 2014,” said Sturgeon, who also held talks with the president of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, and MEPs including those from Scotland.

Coinciding with the first minister’s exploratory talks in Brussels, the investment bank JP Morgan released a memo from its analysts predicting that Scotland is likely to break away from the United Kingdom by 2019, setting up its own currency instead of sterling.

“said Sturgeon, whose party narrowly lost an independence referendum in 2014.”

Losing by 10 points is “narrow”?

Posted on 6/29/16 | 10:28 PM CET

Thomas Peters

Whatever is really going on between Scotland and the EU will not be publicly known while a) Scotland is part of the UK, and b) the UK is part of the EU. This is because EU members in good standing (unlike UK) have their own issues with historically “different” people who are seeking separation from their established country.

I believe EU will accept Scotland’s application eventually, however, but subject to rules for any new member state without preference. Northern Ireland may have a much easier time, leaving one EU member state to join another.

But, if the UK leaves the EU, and then Scotland successfully becomes an independent country, there is nothing stopping them from applying to EU for inclusion.

Posted on 6/29/16 | 11:17 PM CET

MnXalns

Perhaps an alliance with Ireland could be the route for Scotland to take.

Posted on 6/30/16 | 9:22 AM CET

John Corfield

Just go Scotland and be done with it .
We in England are sick of hearing the constant whining that if anything goes wrong
” Its the English fault “.
Weaned on hatred towards the English has been a feature of English/Scot relationship over the last 400 years it has to stop.
And do not even think you can keep the £ we in England are fed up with subsidising you paying you more than English administrations to the tune of nearly £1500 per person.
We will rejoice if you vote for separation.

Posted on 6/30/16 | 9:39 AM CET

Sieuwke

@John Corfield

“Just go UK and be done with it .
We in EU are sick of hearing the constant whining that if anything goes wrong
” Its the EU fault “.
Weaned on hatred towards the Europeans has been a feature of UK/EU relationship over the last 50 years it has to stop.
And do not even think you can keep the Single Market, we in EU are fed up, etc etc.
We will rejoiced when you voted for separation.”

You see, you ‘English’ are not so much different then the Scots.

Posted on 6/30/16 | 9:56 AM CET

A Scotsman

Sturgeon going to the EU talks was just a showpiece to look like she is doing something positive when in fact the whole exercise was a pointless waste of tax payers money.
The EU is strongly against all forms of nationalism (SNP Scottish National Party), the rest of the EU is worried that their own countries could face internal independence movements if they see Scotland being able to get preferential treatment to join the EU, it should not and will not be given special treatment.
Sturgeon is in trouble, her supporters are interested in mainly one thing..independence above all but the SNP leaders know that being independent from the EU and the UK would be a total disaster yet this look like she has no choice if she is to appease her supporters.
Sturgeon has to keep her supporters on the hook with independence as the bait whilst trying to find a way to prevent having to drop the independence bomb, if they are even allowed by the UK gov to let her call it.
The SNP should drop their independence dream and just become a Scottish party.
There are many SNP supporters who will not support her with a yes vote as they do not want to be part of Europe, those who voted no before will most likely vote no again.
If by some miracle she calls an independence vote and wins, it would be years before Scotland could join the EU along with the Euro etc then England would insist on a hard border…it is too troublesome.
This was supposed to be the trigger for a Scottish independent vote, it is interesting to watch the SNP struggle with reasons not to call it..come on..do it ! then at least it would be the end of the SNP
The SNP will not call for independence for many years yet.

Posted on 6/30/16 | 2:07 PM CET

Nick Knight

They just have to get out officially first, that was Spain’s real objection. Once that happens, then they will be welcome in on a fast track.

Posted on 6/30/16 | 2:43 PM CET

Maria Valentina Umer

I wish Nicola Sturgeon much success in her plea to have Scotland join the EU as an independent country. Politically and economically, her chances are not bad. Scotland has the North Sea oil, a genetic engineering base of research, excellent schools, and none of the muddle of little England. Only, the old UK has to ultimately resign by activating Article 50. The EU, rightly, is not prepared to deal with anyone whose political legitimacy is not clear in their respective countries. EU law is paramount.

Posted on 6/30/16 | 4:26 PM CET

jane24

@John Corfield:
Actually the English do not subsidize the Scots. For over two decades the tax revenue per capita, in Scotland, has been considerably higher than in England. The Scots put more into the British Government’s coffers than they get back.

As for blaming the English? The political turmoil in which we are now engulfed is undeniably the doing of those residing in England. Their votes elected the Tory government whose leader proposed the EU referendum to further his own political ambition. The English electorate gave us Brexit. Perhaps not so surprising that some in Scotland may be a little critical?

Posted on 6/30/16 | 6:38 PM CET

ColinM

@Jane24
As you can see the overall picture of who subsidises who is rather more complicated. see:-

As usual with such things 5 accountants could give you 10 different values for what the net flow was and if it was equitable or not.

As an English resident immigrant from East Africa with family connections to Scotland, Wales and Cornwall I think that we would all get on much better if we were independent nations even if it would put more wear and tear on my passport.

Posted on 7/1/16 | 11:15 AM CET

me

@Thomas Peters

“Northern Ireland may have a much easier time, leaving one EU member state to join another.”

Easy? Northern Ireland leaving the UK easy?

Posted on 7/22/16 | 7:10 PM CET

me

@Sieuwke
I thought the same when I read that and there is definitely some truth to it.

But there are some epic generalisations going on there. Not everyone feels that way about the Scots and the Scots toward the English, and the Scots and English toward the EU. So when someone vents their frustration they aren’t speaking for everyone.

Posted on 7/23/16 | 12:46 AM CET

me

You do realise Sturgeon is a milder Farage in a skirt don’t you? She’s a one trick pony, why do you all hold her with such affection? She is a nationalist, the SNP, Scottish NATIONALIST Party.

For all you lovely people hoping the UK breaks up:

Hundreds of years of history, total integration and cooperation. We live with them, fight side-by-side with them, work, marry, children, head governments, businesses, teach our kids, work in our hospitals and still independence is an issue. Federal Europe. Hope you’re ready to fight a Farage/Sturgeon in every one of those states for an eternity.

So go ahead and cheer them on. Stir them up, encourage them. You are Farage.

Posted on 7/23/16 | 1:19 AM CET

me

Final thought.

Why does everyone assume because they voted in favour of the EU as part of the UK they will all also vote for leaving the UK and trying to join the EU independently in exactly the same numbers. That does not follow. It’s an entirely different question and set of problems now.

I personally think they’ll opt for the EU over the UK, even if entry was guaranteed.

Posted on 7/23/16 | 1:35 AM CET

me

Sorry correction for the last line ^^^

I personally [don’t] think they’ll opt for the EU over the UK, even if entry was guaranteed.

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