David Perron: MacTavish’s Masterpiece?

With the Edmonton Oilers struggling as they are, Craig MacTavish hasn’t exactly been given a free pass by fans in his first full season as general manager. What even his most ardent critics should agree on, though, is that it looks like he fleeced the St. Louis Blues when he pawned off Magnus Paajarvi and a draft pick in exchange for David Perron.

Perron was already a pretty good player when MacTavish added him. But the 25-year-old forward is on pace to exceed his previous career bests – and by a lot.

The Basic Numbers

The chart above shows Perron’s 82-game pace from every season in his career where he played more than 40 games. The only preceding season even close to his early work this year was 2011-12, where Perron rode a high shooting percentage to a 30-goal pace.

The really astonishing item here is Perron’s shot totals. Players don’t typically see huge leaps in shot totals, but Perron is running at more than double his established career rate. What’s going on?

Five-on-five

Numbers for this chart (and the next one) come from ExtraSkater.com and BehindtheNet.ca.

There really isn’t much to see at this level: Perron is a hair below his career goal numbers and a touch above his career assist numbers.

But something interesting happens when we compare Perron’s shot numbers for this season to last season. Perron had 61 shots at five-on-five in 48 games a year ago; this season he has 54 in 20 games. He’s firing the puck roughly twice as often as he has in the past once ice-time is accounted for. His goal totals are only at his career rate because his shooting percentage is half what it was last year at even-strength.

In short: he’s been good so far, but if these shot numbers are for real he’s likely going to be even better at evens in the near future. Which is frightening.

Five-on-four

Perron’s numbers are through the roof here. Some of that may come from playing on a better power play unit – it’s extremely difficult to separate teammate and coaching effects from player talent when looking at special teams numbers – and the assist totals in particular may not be ridiculous.

As for the goal totals? Digging into the shot numbers again, we find that Perron is again firing the puck at roughly twice the rate he did in St. Louis, but this time his shooting percentage is roughly double what it was last season. This to some degree will off-set the expected rise in his five-on-five shooting percentage.

In other words, these numbers are likely going to come down because that spike in shooting percentage probably isn’t sustainable, but even so he’s legitimately on pace for a career-best season.

The Biggest Question

I can’t recall an instance of an experienced NHL forward suddenly doubling his shot rates at the age of 25. One of the reasons people like me prize shot rates so much is because they tend to be pretty stable; players reach an established level of ability and move a bit but the fluctuations are nowhere near as dramatic as shooting percentage is.

I don’t know if Perron can keep up this shooting pace, and I didn’t watch him closely enough in St. Louis to hazard a guess as to what’s changed. One item that stands out – Tyler Dellow brought it to my attention on Twitter last night – is that Perron is getting a higher percentage of his shots through to the net (he has 16 missed shots on 80 shots this year; last year the number was 31 on 84) and that seems like something that probably won’t continue, but it isn’t close to being the whole explanation either.

My gut feeling is that Perron shoots a little less frequently simply because this is so far out of the norm, but at the same time it seems entirely possible to me that this is a breakout campaign and an indication of a more trigger-happy player.

What a trade by MacT, St Louis was thoroughly fleeced. Their backs were to the (cap) wall, but it’s good to see a GM capable of making a calculated move against a team backed into a corner. Usually it’s the Oilers between the hammer and the anvil.

The Smid trade is still a head scratcher though, ol’ silver fox must be confident he can get Belov to re-sign.

I’m starting to follow Mact’s logic here, not saying that I agree, but I understand.

Mact thinks that Klefbomb will be as tough as Smid and ready for next season. Between Belov and N.Shultz the Smid role became redundant. The organization doesn’t think Smid is good enough with the puck and not tough enough to warrant keeping around for another 3 seasons at his projected salary and subsequent cap hit.

If the ‘Smid with offense’ comparison of Klefbom is correct, then I would completely understand jettisoning Smid at his cap hit. But if Belov elects to go to a contender, and Klefbom doesn’t live up to his billing, the Oilers could be hurting for defensemen next year.

Here’s hoping Belov signs here and the big Swede is all that and a bag of chips. I’m looking forward to shouting ‘DROP THE K-BOMB’ when opponents cross the blue.

The Habs just signed Alexei Emelin to 4 years @ 4.1M per. I guess Belov will be asking somewhere around that number. If we believe we can sign him to 3-4 years @ 3.5M per, then it is a better contract that Smid’s 3.5M contract.

I agree with the assessment of Smid and agree he is redundant. But I am still pissed at that trade for the little return that we get.

Perron is also redundant in the Blues roster and they need to dump his salary, yet they get something back in MPS and a 2nd. What do we get for Smid? A 170 lb AHL center and a goalie prospect who just graduated from WHL. I don’t care about giving Roy because he won’t get us anything anyway.

Didn’t San Jose Sharks get 2 2nd round picks for Douglas Murray last year at trade deadline? I’ll take Smid over Murray any day. So can we at least get one 2nd round pick for Smid?

This is my main beef with it. If they thought he was redundant for next year, the right move is to wait for the trade deadline when even mediocre defencemen will net a decent return from teams making a push.

You make a good point……It makes you wonder about the details……did they consider moving Nick Schultz before Smid but could find no takers? Did they value N Schultz more than Smid?(which would imply that they think Smids reputation as a tough gritty D man was exaggerated)….or did they value them about equally but liked the Schultz contract more ….or was it that the return for Smid was greater than what was offered for Schultz?

Also, did their scouts value Brossoit and Horak more than most of us casual observers do?

Also, is the new management style gaining traction?…..not waiting around once a decision is made….impatient….etc.

I wish the local media would ask these questions in the pressers….or maybe they did and I missed it?

Top pairing defenders don’t grow on trees, as much as I wish they did. And it’s a little more complicated than getting a couple centres, MacT needs to find a couple centres that bring an element the Oil are missing, namely size and functional toughness. And those don’t grown on trees either.

I’d say they have the pieces to make a good 3rd line. The fourth line definitely needs a serious overhaul, when you’re right, you’re right.

Mact did great getting Perron,Gordon and Ferrence,and I gotta think theres something coming after getting rid of Smid,so i give him a b+ for that.He gets a d+ for the goaltending issue though and hope he fixes that during the off season

I’ll give him credit for chasing Schneider and Bishop, at least he recognizes the weakness in net. Was it ever revealed what Gillis was asking for? Schneider would look great between the pipes in orange and blue right now, and this season would probably have started much differently.

Plus my sister is a massive Vancouver fan, I’d have loved to be able to rub her nose in it.