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2 Delivery logistics, once a relatively staid business, continues to be pushed in new directions by e-commerce. E-tailers of all sizes are looking to disruptive logistics a combination of delivery speed and innovation as a way to add value, separate themselves from the pack, and keep the customer under their banner throughout the entire shopping process. Formerly well-defined borders between e-tailing and logistics are dissolving, shifting the entire e-commerce ecosystem in new ways that will impact all businesses in the space. Some of the largest names in e-commerce are leading this change-up. Amazon is offering fresh products (delivering groceries via the Fresh business unit in large cities and for the first time stepping into last-mile delivery); moving into wholesale (through AmazonSupply, which has grown 4x since launching two years ago); and adding Sunday service (via the Postal Service in the US and DPD in the UK). Chinese e-commerce firms are increasingly using Amazon Marketplace and Ebay as sales channels. Amazon s warehouse and fulfillment capabilities, for example, ensure low-cost goods are customs cleared and ready to be shipped quickly. Google is taking on Amazon for same-day: Only days after Amazon announced it was expanding same-day shipping to more cities, Google launched its Shopping Express service in Los Angeles and New York, which provides same-day service for selected retailers. Ebay is expanding same-day: UK startup Shutl uses the capacity of local courier firms to deliver local goods based on customer preference within 1 2 hour time windows. Ebay acquired Shutl in late 2013 and plans to expand its same-day ebay Now service using Shutl s infrastructure and IT. Exhibit 1 outlines these and other enhancements that have occurred in the logistics e-commerce space over the past 10 years. This push for logistics innovation by large e-tailers is sure to benefit customers in terms of more convenience, more service, more options, and faster delivery. But can the giants keep up the pace? What can smaller e-tailers do to ensure they aren t left behind? And how can third-party logistics regain its role as a driving force in the e-commerce market? Exhibit 1: The quickening pace of e-commerce logistics development : Amazon begins offering US Amazon Prime (two-day delivery) 2: Amazon starts Fresh pilot in Seattle 3: Launch of same-day service Shutl in the UK 4: Amazon introduces branded parcel boxes 5: Amazon launches AmazonSupply 6: Amazon rolls out Fresh in LA, SF 7: Google pilots Shopping Express in SF 8: Alibaba launches China Smart Logistics Network (CSN), to support 24h delivery across China 9: Ebay acquires Shutl 10: Amazon begins Sunday delivery in US (via USPS) 11: Amazon begins Sunday delivery in UK (via DPD) 12: Google rolls out Shopping Express in LA, NY 13: Alibaba signs logistics/delivery cooperative deal with China Post 2

3 THE GIANTS: RISING SERVICE PRESSURES The sheer size of companies such as Amazon, Google and Alibaba, allows them to dictate their needs to the logistics firms with which they partner. Continuous double-digit growth rates (see Exhibit 2) are becoming a problem, however: Amazon saw a big drop in performance during peak retail season this past year in the United States; some European delivery logistics markets also were down to borderline capacity. As well, in most countries, there are only one to three firms that can operate delivery networks at scale. In some large European countries, Amazon accounts for 30 percent of the value of goods moving on the top logistics operator s network. Doing a better job on peak volume and resolving growth bottlenecks more generally thus will be critical issues for e-commerce giants in the future. Some of the relevant issues and options include: E-commerce giants will need to ensure that they spread volume out and nurture a variety of logistics companies in each region, to increase market competitiveness and better leverage their buying power. Careful choices around long-term contracts and yields will be crucial. Increasing the number and size of fulfillment centers and warehouses raises operational complexity in order fulfillment. Diligent inventory management and supply chain process optimization is required to manage inventory and operations cost. Line-haul logistics now happens before the purchase not as part of distribution. Labor conflicts and strikes pose a significant risk to growth. In Germany, for example, recent strikes at Amazon warehouses may be a reason that more warehouses are being planned in Eastern European countries. Hence risk management, both on the operational and on the branding side, is required. Most importantly, e-tail giants need to continue developing their own delivery logistics solutions as a powerful means of differentiation. With Google introducing Shopping Express, Ebay acquiring same-day delivery provider Shutl, and Amazon testing its own delivery services in major US cities, the game of thrones has just begun. Exhibit 2: E-commerce market maturity (US, Germany, France, UK) AVERAGE E-COMMERCE GROWTH IN % Edible grocery Household & pet care Automotive products Clothing, footwear & jewelry 20 Sports & leisure DIY & furniture Health & beauty Other Consumer electronics Entertainment Office supplies E-COMMERCE SHARE OF TOTAL SALES, Total sales 2014 (traditional and e-commerce) Note: Projected data for 2014 Source: Planet Retail, Oliver Wyman analysis 3

4 SMEs: HOLDING ON TO CUSTOMERS Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the e-tail space still need logistics companies to provide them with innovative and customer-friendly solutions that can help them narrow the gap with the giants. But if you aren t Amazon or Alibaba, what are your options? Multi-channel retailers can successfully stand up to the major pure-play e-tailers if they are willing to work toward truly blending their online and offline business. Using their bricksand-mortar stores to support the touch and feel shopping experience and brand quality is just the start. Multi-channelers must go one step further and leverage their most critical advantage vis-à-vis pure plays: Their network of stores and decentralized warehouses, which can enable them to offer faster, better delivery service and gain a competitive logistics edge in the market. Yet it won t be enough to just plug local same-day couriers into the existing structure. True multi-channel success will require shifting focus from offline-centered logistics to a smart, fast, and efficient multi-channel supply chain across all processes. Pure players are increasingly stuck between the proverbial rock and a hard place: e-commerce giants driving the market on one side, and multi-channel firms leveraging their unique advantage as they move online. For these SMEs, competitive differentiation is critical, along the dimensions of brand, service, expertise, and product depth. Establishing a niche that makes a firm the go to for customers can combat more generalist e-commerce experiences. Sephora for beauty products and Zalando and Zappos for shoes are using this strategy, but whether they will be successful in the long run is not yet clear. When it comes to innovative logistics solutions, pure-play SMEs may find introducing a physical means of differentiation such as same-day delivery tough to implement, as most have only one or a few centralized warehouses and thus cannot offer broad same-day delivery. Once same-day takes off (and customers demand it), solutions could include developing more decentralized distribution centers or teaming up with other niche SMEs to set up local same-day warehouses for critical stock. Enabling IT won t be trivial, but Oliver Wyman analysis shows that such warehouses could be highly efficient. Sending items toward a destination area even before the customer places the order (anticipatory shipping) could be a viable solution for fast-moving items in dense areas as well. Such anticipatory shipments can be triggered if ordering likelihood, based on big data analysis, rises above certain thresholds. (It s worth noting that Amazon filed this year for a patent in the US for a method and system for anticipatory package shipping. )

5 THIRD-PARTY LOGISTICS: DELIVERING INNOVATION To serve the e-commerce market, parcel/postal logistics firms will need to pay more attention than ever to demands for speed and innovation. NEW DELIVERY SOLUTIONS In terms of new delivery solutions, logistics firms will need to be faster, more predictable, more focused on the last mile, and innovative in the areas of Sunday and grocery delivery. Speed: 3PLs will need to offer faster delivery options, such as same-day, at scale. Integrating same-day into normal delivery options will be key to keep costs down sufficiently to meet customers shipping price points. Predictability: While one-hour delivery time windows will be the new standard, what customers really want is to determine when and where they get their packages. Such self-selected delivery windows will offer new pay per slot revenue opportunities (e.g., in Germany for Saturday 8 10 AM, 5 extra; any day between 5 8 pm, 2.50 extra). Last-mile touch points: Parcel lockers, to-the-door options, and parcel shops will continue to expand, with innovation around convenience, such as finding the best locations for parcel lockers, parcel shops with 24/7 hours, and delivering later in the day when people are at home. Sunday delivery: Amazon is setting a new standard for Sunday delivery one the rest of the pack will be forced to follow. We expect to see Sunday delivery expand beyond the US/UK, although the speed of adoption will depend to a large extent on legal restrictions. Fresh solutions: Fresh/perishable goods will be the next big thing in e-commerce, meaning that logistics companies must start building scalable, cost-efficient solutions now. Major 3PLs are already testing options for delivery using normal trucks/vans and cooled vehicles. CUSTOMER INTERFACES AND DATA INTEGRATION Data management and integration will play an expanding role in logistics. Customers will want (and get) full end-to-end control of the delivery process, allowing them, for example, to change destinations in real time. This shift will require logistics providers and e-commerce platforms to be fully integrated along the whole value chain, with a constant, real-time interface for the customer. Who owns the customer could be up for grabs as a result: While e-tailers seek to control all customer communication (and contact), end-to-end logistics players can take advantage of their physical customer touch points. By generating insights into customers behavior patterns and preferences, 3PLs can improve their own services, such as preferred delivery time windows. 5

6 ANTICIPATORY SHIPPING As noted above, logistics companies can help SMEs build out anticipatory shipping, which requires faster delivery speeds and a proactive supply chain. Completing the final destination address while the product is in shipment, for example, requires seamless data integration between the e-tailer and its 3PL. Logistics firms also will need to implement intelligent shipment steering processes to manage physical delivery efficiently and prepare their IT and operations for a world in which nothing other than a barcode identifies a parcel. PRICING PRODUCTS E-commerce volume giants in particular can be expected to play 3PLs and postal services against one another to extract maximum service at a minimum price. What is new is that they are choosing service providers more selectively for certain areas or lanes rather than for a country as whole. Lane-based/area-based pricing thus will be important to get right. Logistics firms must ensure they have full transparency on their costs per customer and lane, as well as on their service quality, to offer competitive products. This also could involve benchmarking rates, closing operational performance gaps, and preparing for sudden moves, such as Amazon Fresh (which could potentially cut high-density volumes and use third parties only for rural parcels). COST FOCUS Cost-down initiatives remain important and the old network economics rules for 3PL/postal still apply: Efficient standardized processes and an optimal but flexible network topology are key to superior network economics, with a growth imperative to profit from density-driven cost advantages. A mis-planned peak season today can easily eat a big chunk of a full year s earnings. UPS for example lost nearly US$180 million in operating profit due to unexpected peak-season demand patterns. Hence, a new level of cost and flexibility management is required. BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER E-commerce logistics innovation today is being driven by the e-tail giants, with logistics firms pushed out of the driver s seat and SMEs scrambling to keep up. While we observe many companies still in shock and overwhelmed by the speed of e-logistics innovation, we also see companies that are getting a handle on market evolution and moving in the right direction: European leading electronics company Conrad Electronics, which is effectively blending online and offline businesses, including same-day delivery Express parcel carrier DPD, which is driving the market with one-hour time windows REWE, innovating in the grocery space, including online ordering and one-hour delivery Deutsche Post DHL has made bold moves toward becoming an e-tailer itself (meinpaket.de, allyouneed.com) and is piloting a same-day solution on a wide scale Walmart, the world s largest retail company, testing same day delivery in San Francisco, California and planning to expand testing to Denver, Colorado Car service Uber testing same day delivery in Washington, D.C. customers can order corner store products for immediate delivery by a private driver, via the Uber app 6

7 CASE STUDY 1 SAME-DAY BECOMING INEVITABLE The CEO of Ebay s new same-day delivery platform, Shutl, says the rise of same-day will be inevitable. He argues that consumers measure expectations against past experience, and since the biggest names in retail and e-commerce are making same-day delivery a priority, market demand will rise quickly. And indeed, more and more e-tailers are going this route, choosing one of three existing operating models, as shown by the example of same-day service development in Germany (Exhibit 3). (Of course, when Google s self-driving cars become reality, that may be operating model number four.) Exhibit 3: Timeline of e-tailers introducing same-day delivery in Germany MARKET COMPANY OPERATING MODEL DATE STARTED SAME-DAY Clothing/Fashion Luxodo Courier network December 2012 Lodenfrey December 2012 (pilot), March 2013 MyTheresa 2013 Consumer Electronics Conrad December 2012 Cyberport March 2013 Media Markt August 2013 (pilot), February 2014 Saturn February 2014 Entertainment Amazon Postal provider 2009 Hugendubel Courier network December 2012 Thalia December 2012 (pilot), July 2013 Food Service Mytime Postal provider November 2012 (pilot), May 2013 Gourmondo May 2012 (pilot) Grocery Allyouneed December 2012 Rewe Own delivery vans Bringmeister 2012 (Kaiser s Tengelmann) Health & Beauty Aponeo Postal provider September 2013 Jewelry Uhrzeit Courier network Office Supplies Notebooksbilliger October 2012 HQ Patronen

8 MODEL PROS AND CONS THE COURIER NETWORK MODEL The most common operating model, used by courier brokers Shutl and Tiramizoo, for example. The business model is based on local fulfillment and superior dispatch software fully integrated into retailers existing technology. Retailers can dispatch from point-of-sale through a fleet of local couriers, which usually deliver within two hours, or within a specified one-hour window scheduled by the customer. This model provides the opportunity for all retail stores in a given urban area to become meaningful same-day market players; it is also quick to implement (as long as there is an IT link to the broker). Cons of this model include the need for a real-time overview of inventories across all stores and warehouses (still a hurdle for many e-tailers), and it is not all that scalable for lower-cost delivery options. THE DIY MODEL Large grocery retailers in particular tend to invest in their own delivery fleets, since 3PLs may not have the type of vehicles needed, such as refrigerated trucks. Benefits include end-toend control of processes (quality, branding, etc.) and the flexibility to adjust to changing customer requirements. Cons are that it s an expensive model, requiring substantial volume to keep down costs, and may be a complex activity to take on outside of a retailer s core competence. THE PARCEL CARRIER MODEL Several parcel carriers are piloting same-day solutions, with the goal of making delivery more cost efficient vis-à-vis courier services, which bundle pick-up and delivery and provide integrated routing. DHL, for example, is offering an evening delivery wave in several German cities where customers can chose a two-hour time slot in the evening for delivery (6 8 PM or 8 10 PM). While currently volumes are small, we expect this model to win mid-term over the courier-based model due to it scalability, cost advantages, and synergy with the existing asset base (delivery vans). This model does require moving beyond a classic hub-and-spoke network and more flexibility in pickup and delivery management. With same-day poised to become a de facto standard for retailers of any stripe that want to serve metro areas, careful consideration will be needed as to which delivery model to pursue, and in what timeframe. Smaller multi-channel retailers can get a head start by setting up a courier-based solution right now. This option is particularly attractive if the retailer has a broad network of stores and IT that enables integration with one of the major courier brokers. For most companies, couriers can serve as a bridge until parcel/postal carriers roll out same-day offers. When demand rises, we expect parcel/postal will scale best. The DIY model, from our perspective, will only continue to make sense for very large e-tailers, such as Amazon. 8

9 CASE STUDY 2 E-COMMERCE GETS FRESH Grocery is one of the largest untapped opportunity spaces for e-commerce (see Exhibit 2 above). While Amazon and others recognized this a few years back, markets and logistics weren t ready. Now, after five years of testing in Seattle, Amazon has begun to roll out its Fresh business more broadly in US urban markets. Fresh offers groceries in three categories: fresh (refrigerated), specialty, and pantry, as well as products from area shops & restaurants. In addition, the business can integrate delivery of some half-million other items from a broad range of Amazon categories. What is driving Amazon s move into grocery includes further lock up of customers, increasing its competitive differentiation yet again, and potentially bolstering density to improve the economics of the same-day market. Margins are promising, as there are fewer online competitors for grocery than in more mature market segments. Amazon is expected to invest in refrigerated fulfillment centers as it grows the business in large cities, as well as build up its own delivery logistics chain with refrigerated delivery trucks. Since Amazon can combine grocery delivery with classic non-perishable items, they can arrive at delivery densities that will allow them to offer a strong same-day service in big cities with the advantage of controlling the customer experience end-to-end. This move poses a risk to UPS and FedEx in cities where Amazon chooses to roll out its Fresh business model. But given double-digit growth for e-commerce and still peak-period needs for capacity, it is arguable whether UPS and FedEx will be hit too hard, particularly as the suburban and rural network would not be impacted. Although these lower density areas traditionally have been a less liked segment for logistics companies, these firms may come to appreciate what could be a strategic asset in negotiations with large e-tailers. Could US Fresh lead to EU Fresh in the future? The European grocery e-commerce market could be a huge opportunity, given limited penetration across countries to date (see Exhibit 4) and Amazon s high delivery density in many of these countries. Modeling results show that density would allow last-mile delivery across Germany, for example, at nearly competitive prices and with the advantage of controlling the customer experience end-toend. Given the Amazon working model of pilot project, US roll-out, and then international expansion, the appearance of Fresh in European cities seems likely, starting with the UK and France and moving quickly into Germany, Benelux, and others.

10 Exhibit 4: E-commerce share of edible grocery: Projected 2014 sales per country UK 4.95% France 2.29% Ireland 1.76% Spain 0.69% Netherlands 0.65% US 0.41% Germany 0.40% Austria 0.36% Belgium 0.31% Russia 0.20% Italy 0.12% Source: Planet Retail, Oliver Wyman analysis How should other grocery retailers react? Both US and European grocery retailers need to recognize the threat that Amazon Fresh poses. Grocery chains on both sides of the Atlantic need to develop strategic scenarios: In the US, what markets Amazon is targeting and what will happen when Amazon enters them city by city; while European chains have a bit more time to more broadly consider what-ifs and to develop adaptive strategies (based on anticipated local customer reactions). Where scenarios reveal the potential for market share loss, own delivery logistics strategies will be necessary. These could be developed in partnership with logistics carriers that enable both partners to benefit from a differentiating service offer.

11 OLIVER WYMAN S E-COMMERCE LOGISTICS PRACTICE We have worked with a range of pure and multi-channel e-commerce players, delivery logistics partners, and logistics fulfillment companies to develop propositions and business designs focused on capturing market share and growing margins. Our focus areas include: FOR E-COMMERCE AND MULTI-CHANNEL COMPANIES Diagnosis of relevance of customer touch points and development of lasting differentiation potential Supply chain diagnosis and development from offline centered to true multi-channel logistics Diagnostics and analysis of current logistics/fulfillment operations Development of best practice strategy and operations in fulfillment and logistics delivery options Operational improvement programs, lean production, integration of offline and e-commerce logistics Competitive benchmarking of supply chains, logistics processes, etc. Consumer surveys on relevance of innovative solutions and willingness-to-pay Make-or-buy decisions for fulfillment/customer service units FOR LOGISTICS PROVIDERS Strategic positioning, identification of strategic customer segments Development of market sizing and models to expand services and offers Strategic network design to resize networks and capture opportunities from e-commerce Consumer requirements mapping with regard to logistics/delivery services Operational diagnostics and improvement of service levels Volume volatility analysis with respect to utilization of fixed assets, management at peak times during the year Due diligence support and strategic analysis on expanding regional and functional expertise 11

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