SEOUL, South Korea  One of North Korea's worst fears is about to come true: The liberal South Korean government that has pampered Pyongyang with aid while shying from criticism of its rights abuses is about to be swept from office.

Conservative candidate Lee Myung-bak, a former Hyundai executive, is widely expected to win Wednesday's presidential election in South Korea. He will bring a businessman's eye to dealings with the North, pledging in his campaign to take a more critical view of Seoul's aid and demand more in return.

The shift to the right in South Korea's presidential Blue House will also foster improved ties with Washington. Outgoing President Roh Moo-hyun and President Bush have had a rocky relationship marked by awkward moments.

Still, analysts predict the liberals' departure will not lead to an about-face in Seoul's "sunshine" policy of engagement with North Korea. South Korean assistance will still flow as long as Pyongyang continues to scale back its nuclear weapons program.

"We are living in the so-called post-Cold War era," said Paik Hak-soon, director of North Korean studies at the Sejong Institute, a private security think tank near Seoul. "The competition between South Korea and North Korea is practically over."

Lee, who was mayor of Seoul until 2006, has said he will re-evaluate promises Roh made to the North.

At a summit meeting in October, Roh and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il agreed to a long list of projects in the North including new joint economic zones, a shipbuilding factory, tourism ventures and road and rail improvements.

Roh has followed the policy of his predecessor Kim Dae-jung, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for engaging the North after holding the first-ever summit between the Koreas.

But Roh's moves have also been criticized by conservatives as a thinly veiled attempt to boost the liberals' fortunes in the election. Fearful of a conservative victory, the North was a willing accomplice, even agreeing to restart limited cargo rail service with the South the week before the vote.

"It's obvious that the governments in both Koreas tried to make as many promises as possible in view of the imminent change of government to force the next government in Seoul to follow through on them," Lee said in a recent interview with the Chosun Ilbo newspaper.

In campaign materials, he calls for Seoul to "move away from the unilateral policy of appeasement without principle and embrace a strategy of reciprocity."

Voters appear to have mostly yawned at Roh's last-minute push and remain focused on the domestic economy, which many feel has been dragged down by the liberals' mismanagement.

But even if the conservatives regain power, the path toward reconciliation has already been set by a decade of liberal rule in the South.

The U.S. has also reversed its hardline policy of refusing to grant concessions and is now doling out incentives even before North Korea hands over its nuclear weapons. The switch has coaxed Pyongyang to begin decommissioning its main atomic reactor under the watch of American experts.

Washington's change of heart has allowed the South and the U.S. to largely set aside past disagreements on how to deal with the North.

Still, relations between Seoul and Washington have not been smooth, not least because of the poor chemistry between Roh and Bush, displayed most vividly in a joint public appearance in September. Roh repeatedly pressed the U.S. president to back a declaration to end the Korean War. Instead, Bush simply reaffirmed his stance that the North must totally disarm before it can have normal relations with the U.S.

Lee has said improved ties with the U.S. would be a priority.

"The hope in Washington will be that (South Korea) coordinates its policies with the North with ours, rather than acting independently, which runs the risk of undercutting our policy," said Robert Gallucci, a former U.S. diplomat who signed a 1994 disarmament deal with North Korea and is now dean of Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service.

North Korea appears resigned to a Lee victory.

Earlier in the campaign, its state-run Korean Central News Agency called Lee "stupid and foolish," but it has not mentioned his name for more than a month.

Instead, the North's invective turned to another conservative candidate, Lee Hoi-chang, who is a distant second or third in opinion polls. He has called for a tougher line on Pyongyang to force it to dismantle its nuclear weapons.

A North Korean institute minced no words, according to the news agency, labeling Lee Hoi-chang "a fascist man-killer, separatist and confrontational maniac, kingpin of irregularities and corruption and human scum."

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Burt Herman is chief of bureau in Korea for The Associated Press.

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Presidential candidate Lee Myung-bak of the conservative main opposition Grand National Party salutes with maritime university student as he visitis an exhibition by universities during a campaign for upcoming presidential election in Seoul, South Korea, Saturday, Dec. 15, 2007. (AP Photo/ Lee Jin-man)