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(Click on the map above for results from past statewise elections. Use the control on the bottom of the map to toggle between elections. Mobile users: click here for maps)

As Scott Walker and Mary Burke head into the final month of a neck-and-neck governor's race, they will be courting votes from an electorate that has dramatically shifted, mirroring political polarization happening across the country.

Studies have identified a number of reasons for America's growing political divide: choices people make about where they want to live and who they want to live near, campaigns and news sources that aim to drive deep wedges into political issues, economic upheaval, a political system where blame and demonization take the place of debate and compromise.

An analysis of statewide elections for president and the U.S. senate over 26 years by Oshkosh Northwestern Media and the University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh illustrates the dramatic changes in Wisconsin's electorate.

It begins in deep blue Democratic cities like Milwaukee and Madison. Milwaukee is now surrounded by a Republican arc that over time has spread west through Waukesha county and north along Lake Michigan into Sheboygan and Manitowoc counties.

The fact that Milwaukee and Madison are reliably liberal and that Waukesha is a base for conservatives is well-established. They are party strongholds, regions where a majority of voters are unlikely to cross party lines; areas where political campaigns work to rouse supporters and undecided voters are increasingly scarce.

In northern Wisconsin, election maps show the same shifts have been taking place, albeit on a smaller scale, over the 26 years since Republican George H.W. Bush was elected in 1988.

Results by ward of the 1988 presidential election between Republican George H.W. Bush and Democrat Michael Dukakis.(Photo: Kazimierz Zaniewski/University of Wisconsin Oshkosh)

Maps of that election, in which Democrat Michael Dukakis carried the state, and of President Barack Obama's 2012 victory over Republican Mitt Romney, show a dramatically changed distribution of votes. In that time, swaths of rural blue townships throughout northeast Wisconsin transitioned to Republican while many cities became increasingly Democratic.

James Simmons, a University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh political scientist, said the changes in the political map of northeast Wisconsin are driven by the same forces that shape the electorate in southern Wisconsin and much of the nation: suburbanization, residential development in rural communities, the attractiveness of cities to younger and more liberal populations.

In the month leading up to the Nov. 4 election, Gannett Wisconsin Media will publish a series of stories that explore the polarization of the electorate. The series will look at:

• The state's changing voter demographics and how it is eroding the middle ground (today.)

Simmons' analysis is based on 26 years of election data, historic performance in individual voting wards and surveys of current voter opinion.

His findings are in line with a study of political polarization by the Pew Research Center released in June. The survey of 10,000 adults nationwide found that liberals and conservatives are becoming increasingly mistrustful of each other, that actively engaged voters increasingly occupy "ideological silos" from which they rarely waver, and that moderate voters, while still a part of the political playing field, are increasingly disengaged and, by extension, less likely to vote.

"It's the most polarized I've seen," said state Sen. Dave Hansen, D-Green Bay. "It doesn't seem like there are many undecided (voters). People just see a D or an R. ... The interesting thing is its so even. You're dealing with a small percentage of independents (and) undecideds who are going to sway (a statewide election)."

How we got here

“It's the most polarized I've seen. It doesn't seem like there are many undecided (voters). People just see a D or an R”

State Sen. Dave Hansen, D-Green Bay.

It goes without saying that elections in Wisconsin weren't always so ideologically polarized.

In fact, Simmons said, socioeconomics often trumped party politics well into the 1980s, if not the 1990s. Shared interests — urban/rural, black/white, farming/manufacturing, religion, gun rights, environmentalism, married/single — drove coalitions and candidates to cross party lines to support legislation that benefited constituents.

But in the 1990s, the state's population began to separate as suburbanization took a firmer hold. The 1988 presidential election map shows much of western Wisconsin and portions of northeast Wisconsin supported Democrat Michael Dukakis while the region from Walworth County north through the Fox Valley supported Republican George H.W. Bush.

In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney won parts of western Wisconsin by a 20 percent margin, and won Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha counties by margins of 50 percent or more while Obama carried the state.

"The suburbanization of western Wisconsin turned it Republican," Simmons said. "A lot of these people work in Minneapolis-St. Paul, but live here in Wisconsin."

As white, conservative voters solidified the Republican Party's base in rural and suburban areas of the state, Democrats' voting power consolidated in cities. It didn't have much impact in the cities of Madison or Milwaukee, both long-standing Democratic strongholds, but it kick-started small and mid-sized cities' transition to Democratic blue and dramatically strengthened conservative margins in the expanding Milwaukee suburbs.

Simmons said presidential elections energize more voters, particularly young and occasional voters in urban areas, in numbers that can swing the state, as was the case in 2012.

"Votes in cities out-carry the rural areas. It's what happens in presidential elections," Simmons said. "It looks like Obama should have lost the state, but cities now skew heavily blue."

In Oshkosh, state Rep. Gregg Underheim, a Republican who represented the 56th Assembly District for 20 years, witnessed the transformation as he knocked on doors each campaign season.

"I knocked on a lot of doors and it was interesting to watch neighborhoods change," said Underheim, who left office in 2006 . "I think the university started to play a much stronger role in the political identity of the community. ... As time passed, the cultural separation between the university and the rest of the community began to break down and the university began to develop a stronger influence in the political makeup of the community."

As Underheim discovered, election results in cities like Oshkosh, Green Bay and Stevens Point can be influenced by presence of major universities where Democratic presidential campaigns push hard to get students to the polls.

“It doesn't make sense for us to go door to door in a suburban community to find out if we can register everyone. By targeting colleges, you can get a large return on the investments.”

Tripp Wellde, Wisconsin Director of Obama for Wisconsin in 2012

Tripp Wellde, Wisconsin director of Obama for America in 2012, said that's exactly the reason for Democrats' dogged focus on turning out the college vote.

College students include large groups of persuadable voters and those who are likely to support a Democratic candidate but are unlikely to vote without a push, he said.

"We had a huge investment in the youth vote in 2012. We thought 'If we register them, four out of five (students) will support us.'" Wellde said. "Plus, they're found in concentrated areas, so we're more efficient, and young volunteers are more passionate. It doesn't make sense for us to go door to door in a suburban community to find out if we can register everyone. By targeting colleges, you can get a large return on the investments."

That equation also helps explain Wisconsin's sometimes contradictory swings — how the state could elect conservative Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in 2010 and liberal Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin two years later. Those liberal voters who can powerfully impact presidential elections simply aren't as engaged in non-presidential elections.

The effect even flows down to the local level.

In Appleton, for instance, state Rep. Penny Bernard Schaber defeated incumbent Republican Rep. Steve Wieckert in 2008. In the 2010 mid-term, she narrowly won re-election, yet in 2012, another presidential election year, she did not have a Republican challenger.

Chasing votes

U.S. Rep. Tom Petri, R-Fond du Lac, points out that the partisanship and lack of compromise present in Wisconsin politics is not unique to our times. Similar bouts of partisanship were in full force before and after the Civil War and during the Great Depression.

But he said voters still want to see even the most partisan, polarized elected officials work together for Wisconsin.

"In our Wisconsin (Congressional) delegation, we lay claim to the two most polarized senators in the country," said Petri, who is retiring at the end of this term after serving in Congress since 1979. "But my office works with both of them on things affecting our state. We may not agree on each others' votes, but we do agree on helping Wisconsin."

Yet in many ways, political polarization is overtaking the shared interests that used to bind politicians and interest groups from throughout the spectrum well into the 1990s, Simmons said.

The disappearing middle in government has, in turn, fueled an increase in ideological political rhetoric, a proliferation of hyper-partisan candidates and campaigns, and a steady atrophy of the political middle.

Presidential election results by city, village and township in the Fox Valley(Photo: Kazimierz Zaniewski/University of Wisconsin Oshkosh)

But what sets northeast Wisconsin apart from the southern part of the state is this: Even as the political camps continue to separate geographically and ideologically the area retains a shrinking but still-significant number of self-declared independent voters.

A St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute survey indicates a little more than 20 percent of Wisconsinites identify as independent. Simmons, in a 2011 survey, found 36 percent of New North residents identify as independent or having no affiliation with a political party.

The number of persuadable voters in the northern part of the state is one reason the state has played a key role in recent presidential elections and why Wisconsin is considered one of the nation's few true swing states.

That's why northeast Wisconsin has been repeatedly visited by presidential candidates and their surrogates every election year for a decade — and why Walker, the incumbent Republican, and Burke, his Democratic challenger, are expected to make repeated visits to the area over the coming weeks.

The latest Marquette University poll found Walker and Mary Burke about even with Walker at 49 percent compared to 46 percent for Burke among likely voters. Among registered voters, Walker and Burke both had 46 percent support.

"If you're looking to swing an election, the Fox Valley is the place to do it," Simmons said. "Both parties are doing micro-targeting. They're getting good at figuring out individuals. they know if you're going to vote and how you're going to vote."

Wellde, now a principal partner at 50+1 Strategies in California, said campaigns know which voters can be expected to vote in every election. Those people may get mailers and phone calls, but they're not the target audience.

Wellde said the real audience is a narrow swath of the population — the still persuadable voters among the independents and undecideds.

"It's less about finding out whether or not these people were independent. It's more about whether or not providing these people with information would open their minds to different things," Wellde said. "We were more interested in finding out who would listen rather than who was undecided. There are very few truly undecided people in an election. What you want to find are the people who will listen to what you've got to say."

A polarized electorate, Wellde said, can actually help campaigns by allowing them to concentrate efforts on a smaller number of persuadable voters.

"Your resources are limited and you're not going to win by turning out people who will vote anyway or who never were going to listen anyway," Wellde said. "Yes, Wisconsin is a polarized state, but all it does is give us an ability to say with more certainty who we need to target."

Building silos

St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute Executive Director David Wegge said the self-separation identified by the Pew Center is only one factor in the political polarization of the state.

Wegge said the caucus scandals of the early 2000s, the great recession, simmering global conflicts and economic uncertainty have contributed to a sea of change in Wisconsinites' relationship with government.

He said positive feelings about government, elected officials and the opposing party have waned to the point where Jim Doyle and Scott Walker have recorded some of the lowest approval ratings for a governor since the 1980s. Similarly, the state Legislature, which enjoyed the approval of 60-plus percent of state residents from 1989 to 2000 has not had the support of more than 50 percent of the population since 2007.

"The public is not as trusting of the political system in Wisconsin. They don't think it's quite as clean as it was," Wegge said. "They may not feel it's working as much to benefit them as it is to provide what special interests need."

At the same time, he said, two decades of partisan redistricting has solidified Democrat and Republican majorities in State Assembly, State Senate and Congressional voting districts so that elected officials do not need to worry about moderation so much as appeasing their base.

Wegge also said political communications have also become embedded with ideology, allowing people to select information sources most likely to match their political perspectives such as MSNBC and Fox News.

“People are more uncertain of things now. There's been tremendous changes in communication.People are looking for a sense of stability and they can feel comfortable with (parties') ideology. … It's a way of organizing your life around something.”

U.S. Rep. Tom Petri, R-Fond du Lac

All of this underscores the Pew Center's finding that Republicans and Democrats have grown bitterly partisan toward each other in the last decade. The Pew survey showed 27 percent of Democrats see the Republican Party as a threat to the nation's well-being while 36 percent of Republicans think the same of the Democrats.

Hansen said he hears the good and the bad from constituents whether it's getting gasoline at a convenience store or after a parade in Peshtigo. He said the polarized climate makes it difficult to openly and accurately discuss issues like school vouchers or the state budget.

"The public is having a difficult time understanding some of these issues," he said. "Discussion is the biggest thing lacking after 14 years in office. Without the ability to have that discussion, we're not addressing the things we should be able to work together on to move our state forward."

Petri said Wisconsinites identify more closely with political parties now precisely because of all the factors Wegge cited. He said partisan media, economic insecurity and wars have left people searching for some level of certainty.

"People are more uncertain of things now. There's been tremendous changes in communication," Petri said. "People are looking for a sense of stability and they can feel comfortable with (parties') ideology. … It's a way of organizing your life around something."

Yet it creates a divide that leaves little room for political moderates, Simmons said.

"There was a time when Democrats and Republicans were more alike," Simmons said, but the proliferation of partisan media outlets and the role of large, ideologically-driven campaign contributors in both parties have helped widen the chasm in the last decade.

Simmons said his survey data, like the Pew study, suggests that middle ground is eroding rapidly and moderate voters are disengaging as political parties and messages become more ideologically partisan. He said the divide is creating a system that cedes control of the political process to the most fanatical wings of the parties and diminishes either party's motivation to seek middle ground either in office or on the campaign trail.

"I think campaigns matter, but I don't think they matter that much," Simmons said. "Demographics have changed, industries have changed, growth and urbanization have changed."

This is the first in a series of stories exploring the growing polarization of the Wisconsin electorate and the role it plays in the outcome of elections. Polarization has been the subject of numerous studies, which point to a growing divide between liberals and conservatives and the disappearing middle in American politics.

The stories began as a result of conversations between Oshkosh Northwestern Media City News Editor Karl Ebert and University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh Political Science Professor James Simmons about a study by Simmons and Kazimierz Zaniewski of UWO's Geography Department that analyzed the results in Wisconsin of the 2012 presidential election and compared those results to those of previous elections, beginning in 1988.

Comparing political maps from 26 years ago to recent elections leaves little doubt that the electorate is becoming more divided — both geographically and ideologically.

Zaniewski's maps of presidential elections that accompany today's story strongly illustrate a shift in the state's political demographics, with rural and suburban areas backing Republican candidates by greater and greater margins and Democratic voters consolidating in urban areas.

You can also find interactive maps with presidential election results in northeast Wisconsin cities, villages and townships online at

Today's story explores the causes of polarization and how it is reshaping Wisconsin politics.

In future stories we'll look at the polarization of northeast Wisconsin. The New North area remains one of the state's key swing areas because it still retains an above average number of independent and persuadable voters. To help us with this story, we're asking readers who consider themselves to be independent or undecided voters to contact Oshkosh Northwestern Media reporter Nathaniel Shuda at (920) 426-6632 or nshuda@thenorthwestern.com.

We'll also explore the role of turnout, answering the question of how Wisconsin voters could jump elect polar opposites to the U.S. Senate in the course of two years: Republican Ron Johnson in 2010 and Democrat Tammy Baldwin in 2012.

Finally, we'll bring it down to the county level, looking at how voting patterns have changed in Winnebago County and how groups are looking to stem the tide of toxic politics.