Site Mobile Navigation

GERMANY RAISING HOPES OF CROATIA

This is a digitized version of an article from The Times’s print archive, before the start of online publication in 1996.
To preserve these articles as they originally appeared, The Times does not alter, edit or update them.

Occasionally the digitization process introduces transcription errors or other problems.
Please send reports of such problems to archive_feedback@nytimes.com.

As expectations grow here that Germany will soon recognize Croatia, leaders of the republic say they assume the step will be followed by arms shipments or even Western military intervention to help in their uphill battle against the Yugoslav National Army.

But officers serving with the European Community mission in Croatia said on Tuesday that German recognition could well prompt the Serb-dominated army to take more territory before Croatia imports better weapons.

The military observers said German recognition, which is expected to be followed by that of Austria and perhaps some other European countries, would also ignite open warfare in Bosnia-Hercegovina, the ethnically divided republic that has until now maintained a fragile peace between its populations of Serbs, Croats and Muslims.

One officer from the European delegation said the Yugoslav Army in Bosnia had already passed out weapons to Bosnian Serbs who are poised to set up "autonomous regions" all over the republic, similar to what was done in areas of Croatia. European Community officials say the situation is so uncertain that they have drawn up contingency plans for immediate evacuation of their monitors from Bosnia and Croatia. A Defensive Struggle

From the beginning of the Yugoslav conflict, the outgunned Croatians have sought to portray themselves to the world as victims, a strategy born largely of necessity. Their national guard has fought a defensive struggle against the combined forces of the Yugoslav National Army and Serb irregulars, losing about one-third of Croatia's territory.

In recent months, Croatia's pleas for help have found increasing resonance in Europe, particularly in Germany, where Government leaders have promised to recognize Croatia by Christmas. The European Community has criticized the Serbs, imposing economic sanctions only against Serbia and its allied republic of Montenegro.

In an interview, Zvonimir Separovic, Croatia's Foreign Minister, spelled out his government's hopes for help that he assumes will come after European powers accept the breakaway republics of the Yugoslav federation as independent countries. "After recognition, Slovenia and Croatia will be exactly the same as Kuwait in the Persian Gulf crisis," Mr. Separovic insisted. "Aggression is not supposed to pay."

Mr. Separovic said the West would have a moral and legal obligation to aid Croatia. 'It's Not a Gamble'

"By recognition, we shall achieve the possibility for international protection," he said. "It will no longer be seen as just a civil war or the internal affairs of Yugoslavia."

An error has occurred. Please try again later.

You are already subscribed to this email.

"It's not a gamble, it's a question of principles," the Foreign Minister continued in an interview shortly before leaving Tuesday on a trip to Latvia, Sweden and Hungary. "That the world will watch aggression pay off, it cannot be. European Community countries and the world, which is against aggressors, must enforce the principles of not changing borders by violence."

"Can you imagine the world will stand by, not act?"

Neither Mr. Separovic nor any other Croatian politician was able to specify how Western military intervention in Yugoslavia could come about. Germany is barred by its Constitution from sending forces abroad, and the European Community has no army at its disposal. The United States opposes recognition. A 'Recipe for War'

Although many in Zagreb hope that after recognition is granted, Germany will sell or lease planes once used by the East German Air Force, the prospects of such shipments is not certain since German law forbids the sale of weapons to areas of conflict. Most of the European nations have enacted similar bans.

The European military observers believe the expectation of recognition is causing tensions in Bosnia-Hercegovina to grow increasingly dangerous. Bestowing international legitimacy on Croatia, one officer said, is a "recipe for war in Bosnia" because this will lead Serb areas to declare themselves autonomous regions and take on their Croatian or Muslim neighbors.

He noted that many of the Yugoslav Army units leaving Croatia had been relocated in Bosnia, where he said federal soldiers had been disarming Croats and Muslims and giving weapons to Serbs.

Before the war, the Yugoslav Army drew its soldiers from conscription in all of the Yugoslav republics. Now it must rely on Serbian reservists and Serb irregulars who are poorly trained. A recent report by the monitoring mission concluded that the army was routinely shelling civilian areas. It suggested the possibility of Western attacks against ships or artillery units that carry out such bombardments.

Croatia reported today that its casualties in the war included 2,655 killed, of whom 1,265 were identified as civilians. Of these 35 were listed as children, 5 as medical personnel, 14 as journalists and 2 as foreigners. The total of wounded Croats was given as 13,559, of whom 4,446 were civilian, 258 children, 18 medical personnel, 5 journalists and 13 foreigners.

A version of this article appears in print on December 12, 1991, on Page A00006 of the National edition with the headline: GERMANY RAISING HOPES OF CROATIA. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe