The Polling May be Way Off!!

The Bradley effect, less commonly called the Wilder effect, is a theory proposed to explain observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. The theory proposes that some voters will tell pollsters they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, while on election day they vote for the white candidate. It was named after Los AngelesMayorTom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor’s race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.

The Bradley effect theory posits that the inaccurate polls were skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias. Specifically, some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. Members of the public may feel under pressure to provide an answer that is deemed to be more publicly acceptable, or ‘politically correct‘. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls.

While some dispute the existence or persistence of this effect, we are currently living with a cadre of talking heads that are all too eager to try toshut down ANY criticism of the policies and actions of Obummer as racist. I have a friend who, despite the fact that all politician are full of** it , and Obummer has been quoted as saying that it is fair, “To spread it around”,speaking of other peoples money, found a parade float that was a manure spreader with a banner reading, “Spreading it Around” and an Obummer impersonator riding on a chair in the well of the spreader, to be racist. Personally, I think it wound have been just as fitting for Barney Frank, but then it would have been homophobic, right?

It may be wishful thinking, but some of the Democrat’s mouthpieces seem to be getting desperate, witness Debbie Wassermann-Schultz’s unforced lie about the Israeli Ambassador, then her disavowal, then her silence after a tape surfaced of her making the lie. Or the unforced error by Antonio Villaraigosa actually listening to the results of the voice vote on the motion to deflect criticism about removing God and Jerusalem from their platform (another unforced error considering the Jewish community in one of the bedrocks of the Dims). The fix was in, It was on his teleprompter that the vote carried, all he had to do was read it. By calling the again and again, he beclowned himself by ignoring that the no votes got louder and louder and stating the ayes won.

So is the Obummer campaign worried that the full on “you’re a racist” attack on any criticism of his actions or policies causing a “Bradley effect” on the polls we’re seeing? Is the desperation I believe I’m seeing caused by their belief in the effect? And why is the Department of Justice suing the Gallup organization over some of their long established polling methodology?