MLB Statistics

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Statistics for All Levels

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BP Annual Player Comments

Year

Comment

2016

After another disappointing year trudging through the Astros' system, former first-overall pick Appel was sent to the Phillies as part of the return for Ken Giles. After so many chapters, the story remains the same: stuff that ranks among the best in the minors and results that mirror a career minor leaguer. Consistency is an issue, but scouts also bemoan a lack of deception that makes his pitches easy to read despite their quality. New coaches, new scenery and new spiritual mantras may set Appel right, but one thing for certain is that if he shows signs of development, the Philadelphia rotation will provide scant resistance to his joining the major leagues.

2015

You could almost hear the baseball prospecting world sigh in relief when Appel met relative success in Double A upon leaving his Lancaster nightmare. Yet even at Corpus Christi, he still K'd righties at a meager 16 percent rate, and those same-handed hitters' line-drive rate spiked at the higher level. The substantial change came against Texas League lefties, whom he fanned at a 33 percent rate while inducing grounders on nearly half of balls put in play, and pop-ups on one in 10. The touted slider may have too often turned to slush, but his changeup took a big step forward. In the Arizona Fall League, the slider again drew rave reviews, but righties continued to fan only at a mediocre 18.5 percent rate, so evaluators may have to rewrite the book on Appel yet. He's going to be a major-league starter, and possibly a quite good one, but probably not in quite the same mold that scouts had envisioned prior to both of his first-round selections.

2014

Itís been over a year since the Astros surprised everyone in the 2012 draft, crowning Carlos Correa as the first overall pick. Appel wound up with the Pirates in the eighth slot, but opted not to sign. Returning to Stanford worked out for his development. The management science and engineering degrees might not see use, but the refined changeup, increased aggression and consistency were positive signs that led to Houston adding this potential ace. His four-seam fastball sits in the mid-90s, delivered on a steep plane from his six-foot-five frame, and more movement can be found in a low-90s two-seamer. A slider with two-plane break is his strikeout weapon, and the repertoire is packaged in highly praised, clean mechanics. If it sounds like Appel checks off every box, that's because he does.

The latter, which is weird to say, because I've been pretty slow to come on the Hader train. I have loved most of what Houston has done, but I think they're really going to come to regret that deal. (Christopher Crawford)

What do you think is the reason so many impact pitching prospects have seen significant reductions on their stuff at such an early age without suffering an injury? I'm thinking Mark Appel, Archie Bradley, Jon Gray, even Julio Teheran. (Duffman from Cali)

Some if it adapting to throwing every fifth day rather than once a week (for the college guys). Some of it is just that some guys are at their best when they're younger and have a faster rate of attrition. Sometimes it's developmental tweaks that don't work out. Not sure there's any specific cause there. (Top 101 Chat with Craig Goldstein)

Weekly trade question with Aroldis Chapman. What realistic prospects would make sense from Astros and Nationals ?? Thanks ! (Kevin from Cincy)

From the Nationals, anyone but Giolito, Turner and Robles would be on the table I think. For the Astros? Maybe a Mark Appel scenery change makes sense. Or a Michael Feliz or Colin Moran. Trading for relievers is tricky, even when they're stupid good like Chapman. (Christopher Crawford)

when drafting for dynasty, which would you rank as being the better asset to own:player already in minors, ie Wilson Contreras, college player, ie JJ Schwartz, or the high school senior. (Silverback38 from VA)

I prefer the guy in the minors just because so much can happen once a guy hits the pros. Mark Appel, while certainly not indicative, is an example of how someone who is highly touted pre-pro, can go wrong. (Tout Wars Champ Mike Gianella)

Really have to see Taillon healthy before we make a judgment. I think Appel could be an OK mid-tier starter, but the ideas of him being an ace or even a #2 should be removed out of our heads. Shipley is the guy of the three who excites me the most. You have to be careful with comps, but I like the Jacob deGrom parallels here, with the converted shortstop who throws 95 MPH. He needs more refinement, but I could see him surprising in his debut. (Mike Gianella)

Is Mark Appel still a mid rotation starter for you or has he fallen from that? (Kent from Houston)

Yeah, I don't think the book on Appel has ever changed. He's been a prototypical big league starting pitcher since last few years of college. Sometimes he gets a little bored, or lets the league get the best of him, or whatever's happening with him. I don't know exactly what it is and I don't know if the Astros do either. But the stuff has never really wavered. He'll be just fine. (Jeff Moore)

Congrats Brendan on your first BP chat. May it be the beginning of many more. Thanks for doing this chat man. Got a question for you. Who'd you take for the next 12 years between Jon Gray and Mark Appel? Who do you like better and why?(Bill Clinton from Las Vegas)

Thank you Mr. President. Over twelve years, I'll take the guy who doesn't have to throw a ton of games in Colorado. (Brendan Gawlowski)

Mark Appel was good in AA and has been really good in the AFL, can we chalk the train wreck at Lancaster up as a fulk thing with him missing Spring training and and the ungodly wind that seem to blow out ever time he pitched?(mdotmorris22 from Minnesota)

Yes, I think we need to overlook a half-year stint that did not go as planned. Appel went 1-1 in the draft for a reason, and it's because of his talent. The development path of a prospect is rarely linear, and all the reports I have received on Appel have been much better since he was moved along out of the missile launching pad of Lancaster. Sometimes we just need to step back and take a breath. (Tucker Blair)

What has happened to Mark Appel? At this point he's looking like a bust, no?(wade1018 from TN)

Has struggled to retain the velocity that he had in college. He's had a myriad of injuries, and hasn't settled into the every 5 days schedule. The FB has been flat. Appel is probably tipping his pitches some. Chris Rodriguez and Ron Shah have seen him recently (I saw him in the spring), but their reports are much more pessimistic than mine. I saw him at 94-96 with a tight CB and CH that showed promise. They've mostly seen 90-93, a CB without snap, and a flatter CH.

It's probably too early to call him a bust, but we may have to lower the ceiling from #2 starter to a mid to back of the rotation type. (Jordan Gorosh)

Would Mark Appel still be in your personal top 50 prospects?(Travis from CA)

Yes; I was present for his best start of the season in Lake Elsinore and I wrote a relatively positive report on him. Unfortunately, his velocity dipped considerably the start after (like 10 mph) and he never really regained what I saw in that one start. He's back now and I'm anxious to get a look at him. The stuff is much better than the number indicate when he's on... but he's going to have to start putting up the number eventually. After all, Harold Reynolds said he could start in Houston after getting drafted last year. (Chris Rodriguez)

What has happened with Mark Appel? He got lit up in his return to High A. Do you expect him to be contributing to the Astros in 2015? Thanks(Chris from Baltimore)

I've taken in Mark Appel's last two starts in High-A; the one where his velocity dipped and the one on Saturday, where his velocity returned to norm. He got lit up really badly on Saturday because he kept the ball up and it looks like he may been tipping his pitches; I can't recall more than two or three uncomfortable swings.

You have to be glad the fastball velocity is back, but now you have to start being concerned and questioning why he can't find any success in High-A. I wouldn't put any timetable on him right now. (Ron Shah)

Should we astros fans be worried about Mark Appel now? Supposed to be our future ace and is having issues in High-A?(Mike from Houston)

No. I don't think he will ever be an ace, despite where he was drafted, but people shouldn't be down on Appel because of his early High-A struggles. He didn't really get a full ST, and struggled a bit (the stuff was still very good) in his initial assignment. Perhaps the tandem system isn't ideal for a guy like Appel, but the Astros appear to want to take is slow and easy with him, protecting their sizable investment, Sending him back to extended ST is just a reset, a chance for him to get in some work without the pressures of a minor league game. I think he will be fine, most likely a very good 2/3 starter type, but I never saw a potential #1 (Jason Parks)

Help Mike!
Ten team dynasty with 10 Minor slots. I was offered Tanaka for Mark Appel and Carlos Rodon. What are your thoughts on Tanaka long-term. Thank you!(nictaclacta from Glendale)

My opinion on Tanaka has become far more positive. He looks much better than I thought he would and that sinker/splitter whatever it is seems very hard to hit. He isn't quite an elite arm but he's very close to that level. (Mike Gianella)

Really appreciate the chat! Who are some guys you would target after the first 15 or so picks in a rookie draft(that includes international players). I have picks 17 and 18. Would you try to package them together to move up a bit? Thanks(Mill from Lodi)

Assuming you mean rookie draft as in new signees to an established dynasty league I think outside of the top 6 guys:

it gets really clogged in the middle. I would trade the lower picks to get into the top 6 because you're talking about guys like Colin Moran and Austin Meadows down there. It's ok, but not ideal. (Mauricio Rubio)

Welcome Ben, I'll start you off with a curveball: Let's say every draft eligible prospect from 2010 to 2014 was eligible for this year's draft. Just based on pre-draft scouting reports and without the benefit of hindsight, how would the first 10 picks of the draft unfold?(baseballjunkie from cali, where it's already Spring)

This is an amazingly difficult question to answer, and also quite fun. Itís probably better suited for an article than for a fantasy chat answer, but since I was able to access this question ahead of time, hereís what I came up with after about 30 min of research. Iíll note that since Iím not familiar enough with 2014 prospects yet, Iíve restricted your search to 2010-2013 draftees. Iíll go with:

Oh man that's fun agonizing at the same time. Bradley/Giolito are my top two. Tanaka is probably my third because he'll pitch in the majors so soon. It depends on your team's timetable. If you're contending sooner, Bradley. If you can wait (because of depth or because you're bad) go with Giolito. (Craig Goldstein)

Thanks for the chat, Doug. I find your pitching insights very interesting. I feel a little guilty that all I can do is ask selfish fantasy questions, but which do you see reaching their potential: Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, or perhaps Julio Urias?(Mr. Beef from Chicago)

No guilt necessary, Mr. Beef - I'm a huge fan of the fantasy game.

Your question is a good one, as these are three VERY different pitchers. Appel is most likely to reach his potential, because he is almost there already. He has a very high floor, but I feel that his ceiling is limited (he lives in a small room). I think that Gray has the most upside of the group, and he doesn't have too big of a hill to climb in order to get there. Urias might have the greatest potential in theory, given his age and right-now stuff (and left-handedness), but he also has the longest distance to go before reaching ceiling, and I think that he will need some refinement of his breaking ball in order to approach Gray's ultimate potential. But Urias' change-up is sick.

Oh, and how many times in one chat can I make a reference to climbing mountains and hills in order to reach a ceiling? I need to come up with some new phrases, or perhaps find an indoor mountain to climb.

On the jukebox: Rage Against the Machine, "Know Your Enemy" (Doug Thorburn)

I think there are some slight differences that you'd see here. Globally speaking, I think everyone recognizes that Noah Syndergaard has vaulted himself higher up a list of this nature. Speaking personally, I have always been on the lower end with my Dylan Bundy projections and I would push him down the list some. Gray would be in the mix toward the back of this pack for me, and that's not a slight against him, I just don't believe he is quite on par with some of the other names in this group. (Mark Anderson)

Where do you project the top 2013 draft picks (Kris Bryant, Mark Appel, etc.) to be slotted in your top prospect list? With the understanding that you may change your mind, of course!(BTH524 from Pennsylvania)

Bryant could/should be in the top ten in the game. He's a polished offensive monster that should be at the highest level at some point in 2014. Appel is also a polished collegiate talent that will move quickly, but I'm not as high on his ceiling as some and I don't see him as a future #1 type. He will be in the top 25, but not the top 10. (Jason Parks)

A great deal can change between now and June, yet it seems carved in stone that the Astros will be pairing Carlos Rodon with Mark Appel in the upcoming draft. Would you say that both have top of the rotation ceilings? Or, dare I say, ace potential?
And, more interestingly, how does that tandem compare to other one-two pitching prospect punches (past or present)? Cole/Taillon, Harvey/Wheeler, Bundy/Gausman, etc.(Domenic from New York)

I think aces are created at the major league level through production and consistency. I would project Rodon higher than Appel. (Jason Parks)

For the past two years half the draft discussion was about Mark Appel and his signing bonus, never about his pitching. Now no one mentions him at all. It's like he went into the Witness Protection Program. You could wear a yellow speedo and talk about Appel. (Free_AEC from South Jersey)

He developed a bit of a reputation for being soft. His stuff is electric and his draft position was warranted, but the initial signing issue and the questionable #rig has cooled off his status some. I don't think it matters at the end of the day what people are buzzing about. Appel is going to be a very good major league arm. Was he the best arm in the class? Production will determine that. (Jason Parks)

Thanks Jason, but saying that someone is a better rotation option than Justin Grimm and Josh Lindblom is like saying he's a better NBA prospect than Tyrion Lannister. Can Perez reclaim a ceiling as a #3, or is he more back of the rotation fodder?(Mario66 from Toronto)

I think he's a no. 3, just one that hasn't developed quickly. The stuff is actually improving Ė†he's showing the feel he showed at times last season with the pure stuff that he had shown a couple years back. Despite the fact that he has been on the prospect radar for a long time, it's easy to forget that he's still just 22 and will be all season. He's only three months older than Mark Appel! (Jason Cole)

Is it a given that either Mark Appel or Jonathan Gray go first overall to the Astros?(BobcatBaseball from Athens, OH)

No. If it's a guarantee in the scouting community that whoever doesn't go first goes second, then they can't play them like they played Carlos Correa last year. That situation worked because if Correa wasn't going first, he was going much later, so they could get him to sign well under slot, knowing it would be more than he'd get in the late top 10.

I have no knowledge that they'd do that again, but if they want to go under slot early and over slot late like last year, you'd want more of a darkhorse. The Houston beat guys, Brian McTaggart and Brian Smith, have mentioned several other options, and how much of Jim Crane reportedly scouting Moran was a decoy or whatever, I'm not sure. (Zachary Levine)

If you had the first pick in the draft this year, do you go with Mark Appel or Jonathan Grey?(Jay from Montreal)

I'd go with Appel. Around all the pro coverage, I've been able to see three of the top college righties in the country this year between Appel, Gray, and Ryne Stanek. That's how I'd rank them ‚Äď Appel, Gray, and Stanek. Although Stanek's stuff has ticked up since the outing I saw. (Jason Cole)

How big of a role did Mark Appel's mechanics play in his falling as far as he did in the draft? Anything major he needs to correct?(Ashitaka1110 from Houston, TX)

It is impossible to know for sure why each of the eight teams selecting before Pittsburgh opted to pass on Appel, though his bonus demands likely played a major role, as did the identity of his agent and the novelty of the current rules governing signing bonuses. It could also be a case of the hype outweighing the potential, as though Appel was certainly a top-tier pitcher in the draft, there was no clear-cut favorite among the arms. I preferred the skills of Kyle Zimmer in a vacuum, and the anticipated difference in bonus demands just increases the ranking spread on a potential zebra sheet. Appel has some decent mechanics, though nothing stands out as elite, and he does have some mechanical inefficiencies that could be cleaned up in time for next year's draft.

Once teams and *advisors* are finished working out the details, do you think that the new system will do a better job or worse job than the old, uncapped systems, of promoting parity by funnelling the best players to the worst teams?(Mario66 from Toronto)

BP Roundtables

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2016, Mark Appel threw 101 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2014 and 2015, all of them occuring in Fall/Winter Ball. In 2015, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (97mph), also mixing in a Slider (88mph) and Splitter (90mph).