Greg Jefferson: Poll shows Castro’s lead widening

If a recent poll bankrolled by Julian Castro’s campaign is solid, Councilwoman Sheila McNeil’s late jump into the mayor’s race appears to be pulling support from the two other major female candidates, District 8 Councilwoman Diane Cibrian and PR consultant Trish DeBerry-Mejia.

Castro’s support, meanwhile, is climbing — though it still fell short of the 50 percent he would need in the May 9 election to avoid a run-off. That’s despite his campaign’s tight-fistedness with advertising dollars, with no Castro spots to date going over the airwaves.

The poll by Hamilton Campaigns put the former councilmen’s backing at 43 percent, up from 38 percent from a survey in late January, also conducted by the Washington, D.C.-based polling firm. A source close to Castro’s campaign made the results available — a common tactic when the results are favorable to the camp paying for the poll.

DeBerry-Mejia’s support dipped from 16 percent to 15 percent, while Cibrian’s fell from 10 percent to 6 percent.

McNeil, who announced her surprise candidacy on March 9, registered at 5 percent in the most recent poll, which drew on 500 consistent voters and was conducted March 12-15. Its margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

With early voting set to start April 27, the number of undecided voters shrank from the first poll to the second, from 36 percent to 26 percent.

Cibrian dismissed the new horse-race numbers this morning as “funny.”

“I think it’s interesting that his poll shows him going up from his first poll — without going on TV or on radio. He went up five points without doing any media?” she said. “These polls are not real.”

McNeil also questioned the numbers’ accuracy.

“I don’t put a whole lot of weight on polls,” McNeil said. “And it’s an opponent’s poll, so it’s a little skewed.” But if the numbers are to be believed, she added: “To get five points in my first week out, that’s not bad.”

Kevin Lopez, campaign manager for DeBerry-Mejia, said the Castro campaign’s poll leaks are designed “to show that he’s got steam.”

“But knowing the methods they employed in the last one, I don’t put much stock in them,” Lopez said. “Several of our supporters got the call, and they said (the pollsters) kept digging and digging at it until the people gave them the right answer, which was that they would support Castro.”