Supporters of Vladimir Putin are treating his win of the presidential election on 4 March as a foregone conclusion – and they're probably right. Yet as the old adage goes: "Be careful what you wish for, because you just might get it."

Even as the opposition's protest movement in Russia continues unabated, Putin remains the most popular politician in the country. He has no strong competitor in this election – according to the latest data from the Levada-Center, Russia's largest independent polling agency, 63 to 66% of voters who say they are coming to the polls will cast their ballot for Putin.

Putin himself has warned that protest rallies following the elections could turn dangerous, because provocateurs from abroad are looking for a "sacrificial lamb" among the famous opposition members. None of this – the numbers, Putin's own view of the situation – is all that surprising. But what makes for genuine news is that whichever way you cut it, Putin's third term in the Kremlin is going to be difficult in an unprecedented way; because this much is clear – his government faces an inevitable decline.

In January, political expert Stanislav Belkovsky wrote on OpenSpace.ru that Russia is heading down the path of a second perestroika – and that Putin knows this, the man is no fool. Being in charge of a perestroika is a thankless business. As Belkovsky wisely noted, Soviet citizens did not suddenly gain new love and appreciation for their government when state censorship came to an end, for example. We can see a similar process taking place today – electoral reforms have been introduced in the wake of the protests, but are they placating the opposition? Hell, no.

Instead the opposition is growing more pragmatic. Leftwing opposition leader Sergei Udaltsov has shown willingness to work with the Communist party, whose presidential candidate, Gennady Zyuganov, is likely to come second in the polls. Udaltsov and his non-parliamentary Levy Front (Left Front) party would appear to be miles away from the pensioners who regularly turn up for Communist rallies – Udaltsov, for example, is a hardcore figure who nearly died recently when he went on a hunger strike after being illegally jailed – but Levy Front is committed to socialist ideals, and rumours have already started that Udaltsov is likely to replace the aging Zyuganov as the leader of the Communists following the elections.

Putin will still win, but as history taught us, popular anger is not likely to go away. It will continue growing. A part of me thinks that's a good thing, because this means that more people are becoming politically active. And a part of me is seriously worried about the potential for violence.

Last week, I came to Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow to witness a pro-Putin rally. The atmosphere was festive – and fairly apolitical, or so I felt. Some believe that the people who come out for pro-Putin rallies are exclusively paid-off agitators or government office drones who are forced by their bosses to attend – but I met a number of normal, cordial people who turned up because they combined their suspicions of the opposition, which they say is financed from abroad, with the desire to have a fun day out.

According to the IMF, real incomes in Russia rose 142% between 2002 and 2009. Under these conditions, a lot of people fear losing a leader like Putin, who presided over some genuine, wide-reaching gains. They fear the unknown.

But the unknown is upon us one way or another. People in Russia are starting to get used to coming out for rallies again – both opposition and loyalist ones. And the forces that shape this country's future are sizing each other up, doing the political equivalent of "Come at me bro."

The presidential election, in this sense, is a red herring. Political stability is over either way.