Monday, April 21, 2008

Final Pennsylvania Poll

Barack Obama 49Hillary Clinton 46

For the fourth week in a row we are showing the margin between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Pennsylvania to be at three points or less.

With such a close race the final result tomorrow should hinge on turnout. If there is disproportionately high turnout in the Philadelphia metro area, where Obama has a 58-32 lead, he could pull out a victory. Clinton is dominating throughout pretty much the rest of the state.

Regardless of whether Clinton or Obama finally wins this primary, it is almost certain the margin will be so small as to have minimal effect on the delegate count.

The key to Obama's small lead is that he is doing better with his core constituencies in the state than Clinton is doing with hers. He leads 55-34 with men, 81-12 with African Americans, and has around a double digit lead with voters under 45.

Clinton, on the other hand, leads by just nine points with women and six with voters over 65. She'll need to do better with those groups than this poll is showing to pull out the win tomorrow.

29 comments:

Anonymous
said...

The small clinton lead with the 65+ demographic does not look right. Can you throw some more light on this?. I am not sure if his peformance with the older voters in the Phily, pisstburg metro is the reason for that.

The latest Gallup Tracking poll showing Clinton taking first national lead over Obama in a month, following the Wright-Ayers-Bitter issues, may be the real trend showing what will hapepen with the 9% undecideds in PA. If that occurs Clinton could win by over 10%.

I don't believe this poll at all. I'm totally all for Obama in this election but this poll is way out of sync with EVERY other poll out there. Most have Clinton increasing her lead in PA to about 6-7 points and even Obama said today that he's not predicting victory. I will like to see what areas the sampling came from, i.e. were they taken from mostly Philadelpia where Barack is stronger?

Just a clarification - 7 percent point lead is in national poll and not PA primary.

And yes, you are correct, in PA, Obama is definitely not leading as per the polls. We all including Obama, know that in PA he may not be able to win but hopefully loses only by 5 percent points or less.

You Know what! I think this Poll is accurate. I konw that all other polls show Hillary with a narrow lead but that is not what i saw in the campaign trail. What I saw in the Obama rally's and town hall meetings and other gatherings is more like this polls says.Anyway I could be wrong..but will will know tomorrow.

Tibet Travel Dot Info offers first-hand and up-to-date tibet travel information - tours, maps, climate, transportation, accommodation, travel tips,We are offering tibet tour in great discount,Tibet tours by local Tibet travel agency - Access Tibet Tour help you travel to tibet with ease, with tibet tour guide, Tibet Adventure Travel packages!U-Way is a new travel company Specilized in china tibet tours, furnish cheap tibet tours in 2009, if you wanna travel to tibet, please believe in u-waytours, let we work-team service for you.. We are provide tibet trekking routes,Tibet travel permit and overall service of travelling to TibetAs we know,wow gold guide and on our website.Free gold guide We have available stock of gold on most of the servers

Do you know that the mabinogi gold, and do you want to know? In the game many palyers need the mabinogi money to up their levels. so they often search where can buy the cheap mabinogi, I think our website is your choice. Many friends told me that in here can buy mabinogi gold, and you will also practice your online games skills. So i hope more and more players come here to buy the mabinogi online gold.

It was not long cheap wow goldbefore some one knocked atwow gold cheap wow gold for salethe house-door and called, open the door, dear children, your mother is here, and has brought something back with her for each of you. But the little wowpoweronkids knew that it was the wolf, by the rough voice. We will gold4power not open the door, cried they, you are not our mother. She has a soft, pleasant voice, but your voice is rough, you are the wolf.

Then the wolf went World Of Warcraft Goldaway to a shopkeeper and bought himself a great cheapest wow goldlump of chalk, ate this and made mmogap his voice soft with it. The he came back, knocked at the door of the house, and igsky called, open the door, dear children, your mother is here and Cheapest Wow Goldhas brought something back with her for each of you.

WoW shares many wow gold of its features with previously launched games. Essentially, you battle with wow gold cheap monsters and traverse the countryside, by yourself or as abuy warhammer goldteam, find challenging tasks, and go on to higher aoc gold levels as you gain skill and experience. In the course of your journey, you will be gaining new powers that are increased as your skill rating goes up. All the same, in terms of its features and quality, that is a ture stroy for this.WoW is far ahead of all other games of the genre the cheapest wow gold game undoubtedly is in a league of its own and buy cheap wow gold playing it is another experience altogether.

Even though WoW is a Cheap Wow Gold rather complicated game, the controls and interface are done in warhammer gold such a way that you don't feel the complexity. A good feature of the game is that it wow power leveling does not put off people with lengthy manuals. The instructions game4power.com cannot be simpler and the pop up tips can help you start playing the game immediately. If on the other hand, you need a detailed manual, the instructions are there for you to World Of Warcraft Gold access. Buy wow gold in this site,good for you.