Provocations

Though I voted for Hillary Clinton in the last election, I predicted that Donald Trump would win. Indeed, I was predicting his victory months before, when everyone was convinced he would lose. I even capitalized on this overconfidence, winning $160, on a $20 bet in which my challenger gave me 8-1 odds. After the election was over, I identified the most right wing county that I could find in the rural South and made him donate the money to a local charity there. The frisson was better than cocaine.

I feel sort of like James Caan in Thief or Al Pacino in The Godfather 3, but in reverse. Rather than people from my old gang trying to drag me back, after I’ve decided to leave, the people in the new gang I’ve joined are doing everything they can to shove me back into the arms of my old one. I left the conservative movement because I couldn’t stomach the Moral Majority and their cretinous offspring, the Christian Coalition. Now I’m finding I can’t stomach the left’s new Moral Minority, with their lampoonable pronoun crusades and safe spaces and other pitiful crap. But even worse is the way we’ve collectively reacted to our devastating and revealing loss to the Republicans and to Donald Trump.

With regard to the young people involved, to whose education I’ve devoted more than half of my life, it’s more sad than anything else. You can see that they desperately want to have some cause to rally around; to man the barricades; to play 1968, with protests and sit-ins, and megaphones and whatnot. The trouble is that the issues just aren’t there. They’re not facing being shipped off to Vietnam. They’re not getting shot to death by soldiers at Kent State. They’re not living at a time when the only women in offices were secretaries; or when violent crime rates were so high, you couldn’t walk down streets in big cities without getting mugged or worse; or when there was legal segregation; or when even super-rich, mega pop stars had to hide their homosexuality for fear of their careers being ruined. Most of these battles have been won or mostly won, to the point that what’s left are moral and legal crumbs, important to be sure, but for which loud agitprop of the sort we’re seeing at Yale and Middlebury and Evergreen just comes off as histrionic and stupid. The one thing that they should be really outraged about, namely, that their economic futures have been fucked (largely by the Baby Boomers) and that their wildly expensive educations are going to turn out to be useless, yielded nothing but the stillbirth that was the “Occupy” movement. But it’s not really their fault. They’re entirely ignorant of recent history – I’ve been saying for years that we should teach students history since the Second World War and then the rest, going backwards from there, as time permits – and lack any sort of grit or fortitude, their parents and teachers having been busy filling their heads with save-the-world bullshit, a saccharine ethos, and an “all must have prizes” mentality that has turned them into a bunch of pious, triggered twits.

The adults, however, have no excuse. None. Indeed, it’s gotten so bad that I can’t even stand talking about politics with the grownups in my own party anymore. We lost an election in a way that demonstrates not just the rottenness of our party’s hierarchy, but that our political coalition, as it stands, is not politically viable. In a Federal system like ours, what matters is not how many people support you, in a numerical sense, but how well-supported you are across the various regions of the country, and what we’ve discovered is that while our platform is appealing to a lot of people, numerically speaking, it is only to people living in a handful of high-population, cosmopolitan areas, essentially the Boston-NY-DC corridor, LA county, the Bay Area, and the Pacific Northwest. This shouldn’t surprise us, given our current most visible raft of issues – environmentalism, identity politics, and globalization – but it should be immediately obvious that it’s far too narrow and elitist to successfully win elections in and govern an enormous and diverse country like the United States. When the party of FDR loses Labor to the party of Nelson Rockefeller – when you lose Michigan and Wisconsin to the goddamned Republicans – and when the best candidate you can cough up is the sclerotic Hillary Clinton, you should realize you have a serious problem; one that requires a thorough re-conceptualization of your party and a rebuilding of it from the ground up. The McGovernite coalition, with a sprinkling of global capitalists and technocrats added on top, just isn’t going to cut it – it never did, which is why Bill Clinton is the only really successful president the Democrats have had since FDR – and we should know that.

And yet, what are all my fellow adult Democrats talking about? Impeaching Trump. Arresting Trump. Driving Trump from office. Praying that Trump dies before he finishes his term. Someway, somehow, somewhere fucking that fucking Trump. And beyond that? Doubling down on identity politics. Marching. Joining cringe-inducing groups like “Pantsuit Nation,” whose optics are precisely the sort of thing that made Hillary Clinton so viscerally unappealing to voters living anywhere that wasn’t New York or California. Oh and busily knifing one another. They’re doing that with great efficiency and glee. Trans activists going after feminists. BLM supporters going after white progressives. Global warming obsessives going after anyone who isn’t absolutely convinced that Florida will be underwater next week. In short, doing everything that lost us the damned election in the first place, but even more so, and doing none of the things we desperately must do if we are to win the next one. Indeed, doing everything they can think of to make it exceedingly difficult, if not impossible to do so.

Of course, this isn’t entirely surprising. Party-building is brutally difficult, divisive, risky work. One may have to compromise on some of one’s most cherished issues for the sake of the party’s long-term success. One may have to form partnerships with those whom one really dislikes, because on five or six out of ten issues, you have common interests. In short, it’s the sort of thing that requires one to be and to act like a fucking adult. And the trouble is that our adults don’t want to be or act like adults. (Which, by the way, should be the subject of an entire essay of its own.) After all, it’s much easier to shout and march and shake your fist and join hashtag campaigns and have Comey-hearing-watching parties and plaster your car with stickers, than it is to do the work necessary to beat your opponent in an open contest, and you get cheap, easy kudos from your peeps to boot. Put another way, what most of the (chronological) adults in my party seem to be doing most of the time in the days that have passed since the election is pose, posture, and signal to one another, with a periodic, ritual purging of the insufficiently pure to top it all off. And while that’s something I expect sixteen year olds to do, when forty, fifty, and sixty year olds do it, it’s not just regressive, but grotesque, as well as being completely, utterly, totally counterproductive. Not to mention infuriating. So much so, that it almost makes me almost want to become a Republican again, just to spite them.

1. Both on official positions and in rhetoric the Democratic party is acting as if national borders either don’t exist or should not exist.

2. In the paragraph you name three accomplishments, healthcare, Iran deal and something he did for the college students.

2(a). I don’t know what the last one refers to, but I did find a Bloomberg article published on April 11 and updated on April 12: “DeVos Undoes Obama Student Loan Protections: Trump’s education secretary wants to limit costs at a time when more than 1 million Americans are annually defaulting.”

2(b). Iran deal, I will give you that, even though many people think it was a very bad deal for United States or that it was a strategic mistake (in the sense that the long term impact of the deal is a nuclear armed Iran). And I am not going to get into the (very valid) arguments that the Obama White House actively misled the public to get this through.

2(c). ACA or Obamacare. The only positive thing you mention is how much Republicans have problems replacing it and that its failure is paving the way for single payer. First thing to note is that the law is doomed to failure if Trump and Republicans did nothing it would fall apart, the death spiral that everyone pointed out happened is happening and will only get worse. I don’t see how this is paving the way for single payer either. If we had President Pence you would most likely see cuts to Medicare to make it more like ACA.

3. You are right that Bill Clinton does not have much in the way of a progressive legacy. But he became the president with less than 44% of popular vote, even in 1996 he didn’t break through the 50%. Unlike Obama he had very little political capital and as a result he did not do much because he couldn’t, most of his presidency was focused on stopping the Republican agenda.

4. In summary, you had a historically popular president with very large Democratic majorities in the House and the Senate (256/435 and 59/100) and you traded it for a healthcare law that will implode if not reformed and a nuclear deal with Iran??

The provocation provoked. In time a new understanding will settle out of the debris. Slowly the arguments shape us, in ways that we might not even recognise. We always come away from an argument altered, in some small way, and so we grow.

The political pendulum will continue to swing from side to side. The winners will enjoy their moment of triumphalism and the losers will blame the system. You might say it is preordained. Referring to the video debate between Dan-K and Massimo(above) we might ask whether there is teleology in politics or is it teleonomy?

But I think it is quite clear that teleology is a property of the Universe.

Yes, I saw that. Europe — or at least the Western part — seems to be resisting this right wing populist lurch that the US is currently going through. I wish we could figure out a way to separate the rejection of illiberal PC, without the right wing populism. But here they seem to almost go hand in hand.

1) I guess I am not aware of that where I am. However, I do know there are conservatives who are fully against Trump’s immigration policy, anti-Mexico policy, and the stupid border wall.

2) a… his budget and DeVos clarified differently since that article (you can watch her testimony if you want),
b… you made my point with your opening statement, the rest is irrelevant
c… you seem to be running with Rep talking points. If you do not understand, most if not all gov’t programs will implode if you don’t make adjustments. Yes, if the ACA is not adjusted it will implode. It is a double standard to point at that, and not hold it for like… everything else that is important. Regarding the ACA, I thought it was (and still think it is) horrible. Again, if you do not understand, it was and is a Rep built plan. It *is* Romney-care, a darling of the Reps and Rep thinktanks (and was put in place by Reps in at least one state) until a black Dem got it passed at the national level. However, I appear to be wrong about how well it worked as a step to healthcare reform. That was reported to be the gamble, I thought it wouldn’t work… maybe it has. Reps are saying this, at Fox even, so I am cautiously optimistic. Your idea that Pence would be able to weaken MC when Reps have already said no, sort of flies in the face of evidence.

3) Again you make my point with your opening statement. The rest is irrelevant. And what is the significant difference between fighting Reps during his own administration to get them installed, and having to fight Reps for continuing a President’s progressive programs after he is out of office?

4) We are in absolute agreement that Obama was a flawed president, who did not take significant advantage when Dems had power to press for strong liberal agendas, and in some cases actively weakened them. Unfortunately, like most presidents since Carter, he turned into an establishment tool and worked to expand executive power. That said, it’s not like he enjoyed Dem power for long, and was for most of his administration having to fight as hard or harder than Bill to get things done.

“You keep ignoring the inconvenient fact that Republicans comprehensively won the elections in the Senate, Congress, Governorships and state legislatures.”

Keep ignoring… heheheh… if you look 4 or 5 posts above yours you will see me talking about it with Parallax. And if not for Dan (arguably wisely*) nixing one of my replies to you, you would have already seen me talking about it with you. What’s more, your belief that I ignore such a thing is only possible by not understanding what I have already mentioned (and even provided links to) in this thread.

The entire Sanders campaign, and continuing work, has openly discussed that very issue for a very long time now. It forms a strong foundation of critique of the Dem party, from inside (Sanders, Justice Democrats) and outside (Greens, Libertarians, etc). If you need me to expound on it at length I can, but it should be clear to anyone actually following US politics, and so understand the references I have provided, that that point is like the last thing I am ignoring. But, here is another vid from the same Millenial Justice Democrat I linked to before, discussing that and what had been going on within the establishment wing of the Democratic party (suggesting why identity politics became so big)…

“Its time to stop making excuses and get on with the business of making democracy work. There is no place in democracy for sore losers.”

OK. But that has nothing to do with me. Your entire attack is an easily demonstrable strawman. Please remember: I’m not a Democrat (have at least one essay at EA on that) and I hated Hillary (in essays and commentary). I think she lost the election fair and square. Even the complaint about Wikileaks from Russia is bizarre to me because all that happened is that her own words/actions were made public. Her fault all around. On Trump’s victory, I have a whole essay at EA (post-election), essentially dedicated to not being a sore loser. Oh I loathe Trump, but understand he has to be worked with, and should be where possible. That is what I was calling for.

My talk about a quirk putting Trump in the WH was not about Reps gaining power in general. There were two points which could be taken from my comment. First, is that I don’t find the electoral college very useful for a large, modern nation, the proof being it delivers “quirks” (rare, anomalous) results which do not help “democracy work”. Second, and more important (all those other words after the quote you cited), is that the Reps keep being sore winners, failing to understand what a limited electoral victory actually means politically, and so making their own sets of mistakes.

Nice that you target sore losers. There are also sore winners. That is also a problem. If you don’t think Trump and Co are sore winners, you have not been following anything they have been saying or doing since day one.

What’s interesting, is that you seem to have given the entire Rep party a huge pass on Obama’s years in office. There were sore losers o’plenty there. In fact, Trump was one of the biggest sore losers, who beyond his endless attacks in the media helped front a rather obvious, racist-based campaign against Obama (the Birther movement), which he stuck with the whole eight years. There was no getting along with Obama from the right. It was strict, and very nasty, obstructionism the entire time. Some of that was effective and what you see going on now on the left is in part a response to that. Not defending, just explaining.

“This shows a distinct turn towards conservatism which is the natural reaction to liberalism running amok.”

Again, I would recommend writings and discussions by Mark Blyth. The factors in play have more to do with anti-establishment sentiment than simple left-right narratives.

As it is, your analysis (and Dan’s) misses crucial realities of Trump’s campaign. He was the least conservative of the enormous field of candidates on the right, especially on the subjects of sexual rights (which you and Dan seem upset about). He was arguably more left on that than Hillary, running an historically pro-LGBT platform for Reps, a point which many pro-LGBTs (who voted for Trump) cited. Remember that as I will return to it.**

If it was a simple right reaction to left, you would have had someone else as their nominee, likely Cruz, Bush, or Kasich. Frankly, I would have loved it if it had been Rand Paul.

“In time the electorate will similarly react against the extremes of the Republicans. And so the pendulum will swing from side to side.”

The left-right narrative is dying. Income inequality is creating an active oligarchy, which both parties serve, and have for some time. Donald “New York Values” Trump, beat out dedicated conservatives in the Rep party, by running as anti-establishment, not decidedly anti-liberal.

* — I had a rather provocative response of my own to your commentary about LGBT protests. Since I am not allowed to respond in kind, I guess I will mention two things…

“Have you ever not known where your next meal is coming from? It is an existential crisis.”

Yes, I have. I also know what it is like to be discriminated against for being LGBT.

“…liberals are more concerned about pleasuring their genitals… It is time that liberals lifted their gaze from their genitals to the world of suffering around them.”

LGBTs are still threatened, beaten, and killed in the US… and around the world. In fact, last week was the one year anniversary of one of the largest terrorist attacks on US soil in some time, targeting LGBTs in specific. Up until recently we were able to be jailed in the US, and legally prevented from working. Heck, the current VP is still up for electro-shock therapy to “cure” us. It is about existence, not genitals, much less pleasuring them.

In light of your comment, perhaps you could set an example by considering the suffering of those around you, before saying such things.

** — Regarding the article you cited, in your left v right screed you didn’t bother reading the analysis at the bottom of the article…

“During the campaign, Mr Trump made repeated overtures to the LGBT community, including a pledge in his nomination acceptance speech last year. As one protester put it on Sunday, he “draped himself in the rainbow flag”. But four months into his presidency, many in that community feel he has done little to back that up. They point to his rescinding of guidance to schools on dealing with transgender pupils, and his silence on this month’s Pride celebrations, an event usually marked by the White House. And they fear some of his conservative cabinet members want to derail some of the legislative progress made in recent years.”

Again, Trump ran on an historically pro-LGBT platform for a Rep. Thus blowing away all of this anti-liberal narrative. The worry is that he is not keeping his promises to LGBT and that those around him will influence anti-LGBT policies. People protest that kind of thing. Are you against political protests?

1. I don’t think it’s at all obvious that the EC is a bad idea, *especially* in a large, diverse country. Indeed, I would argue that the wisdom of basing national elections in a broad swathe of *the country* and not in populations densely packed into a handful of metro areas is stronger, not weaker, now. Especially given that these geographical differences mark stark ideological differences now.

2. I thought that video painfully wrongheaded. We can talk about it in detail if you like, but I suspect it’s simply going to boil down to our wildly different perceptions of the country as well as what looks to be pretty substantially different political values.

3. Nothing about Trump’s campaign “blows away” anything. He is a cynical liar.

4. While Labnut’s point was badly and in my view crudely put — as I indicated in my reply — I’d much rather be a gay man in Brooklyn than a straight one in Appalachia, today. And we are talking about today. My own point was in comparing the living conditions of gays and lesbians today with them in the 1960s.

5. No one said that Trump was the most conservative, so you must be arguing with someone else on that front.

I think the differences between us on these issues has been well aired. I don’t see an awful lot of point in going around and around it, do you? People can read our respective analyses and decide which they think is the more accurate. We obviously aren’t going to convince one another.

Perhaps you meant something different from what it appeared you were saying. In any case, I will respond in a little more depth. If you see I took your meaning different from your intent, that would be good to know. If it was as it appeared, then I feel one extra effort to change your mind is important.

“I am talking comparatively between now and the 1960’s”

That there have been massive improvements regarding LGBT rights in the US and much of the West, from what existed in the 60s (and even from the 90s), is patently obvious to anyone who lived through those times. That fact makes your commentary appear bizarre and raises questions what you mean, especially when it is tied to critiques of the LGBT and larger liberal community.

If you meant that as a political issue for a specific candidate, or party, enough progress has been made on that front that not so much political effort, or capital should be expended on that issue, rather than other, more pressing issues, then I completely agree.

But that is not what Labnut said, or was arguing at all. He was slamming LGBT activists and liberals, and on a personal level nonetheless. He tied the existence of protests (or perceived quantity of protests) as indicating a lack of concern for anything else. And to grant any sort of intellectual cover for what he said seems… well I already said what it seems like.

Whereas one could argue its relative lack of importance for an individual candidate or party, given more urgent topics facing US society as a whole, LGBT rights are not a “boutique” issue for LGBTs themselves. It was not a “boutique” issue for those massacred last year, or those who knew them. It was not and is not a “boutique” issue, for those threatened, beaten, or killed in the US, and increasingly around the world, every day.

It certainly did not seem like a “boutique” issue when I was facing someone this Millenium, well past the 60s (and even the 90s), threatening to beat me to a pulp for being a “faggot”, and someone less fortunate getting beaten (until he was nearly unrecognizable) that same week, and a few streets away, for the same thing. And not for doing anything provocative, just walking down a street where bigots happened to be on the hunt for LGBTs.

When there are protests, they are usually for a reason. Often they are tied to recent events where someone was attacked, or a legal threat has been raised. If you are not aware, the legal rights for LGBTs are becoming worse around the world, including some Western nations. That they improved does not mean they cannot change back.

Granted I find some issues frivolous, or less interesting. But does that constitute most, or all of them? And is that any different from the number of frivolous protests on the right? The article Labnut linked to was not about some mad number of pointless protests, but about one that gave the context and it seemed rather reasonable.

The concept that LGBT rights protests are statements about being worse off than the 1960s, or based on a lack of understanding about progress since then, or that they indicate a lack of concern for any other issues or people is utter nonsense.

I hope your meaning was the former (about political parties) and not the latter.

If the latter, I hope that I or someone else is capable of getting you to reflect more deeply on these issues.

1) I’m not sure there is a way to determine in some objective sense, whether the EC is better or not. The original way elections were held did not grant the party achieving the EC victory such incredible power, by tying up both executive posts. Imagine Trump as P and Clinton VP. In any case, given other problems around how state votes are handled, winner take all, that leads to additional issues (quirks). If we wanted to keep an EC style system, to prevent urban majorities from overrunning rural minorities, that is fine. But I think it should be adjusted to prevent minorities from overrunning majorities. Right now it is a boon to the two-party system, and undercutting an ability to achieve consensus gov’t. Frankly, I am now a bit more impressed by parliamentary systems.

2) On the video, I often disagree with Kyle and generally don’t like his tone. I was giving an example of people that I do listen to (to get more information) and do discuss the issue Labnut said I never consider. Maybe I should have posted one by Bernie (or others). That said, I’m not sure what you had a problem with in that video, beyond his tone. By left values he was not talking about identity politics, he was talking about what you are arguing for. His argument is that (though maybe it is more obvious because I’ve seen more of him and JD) Dems have been sliding to values issues (identity politics), rather than working class issues, because their funding mechanisms mean they can’t use the latter. We don’t have to argue this now, but I largely agreed with what he was saying in this piece and sort of thought you would agree.

3) I agree that Trump is a cynical liar. However, the direction of his lies were not “anti-liberal”. He made a point of upsetting mainstream conservatives by goring some of their sacred cows. So the strict left v right narrative is blown away. He was voted in by left and right voters that were largely anti-establishment.

4) Oh… obviously I submitted my last reply before seeing this post of yours. I think some of my points and questions remain relevant. Are LGBT protests suggestive we think we’d be better off (presumably poor) in Appalachia, even if straight? That seems bizarre. I know that isn’t my conception of the world.

5) I agree no one said that that Trump was the most conservative. But the argument being made is that this was a conservative reaction to liberalism, and specifically identity politics issues. If that were true, it would seem more likely that a mainstream conservative who was overtly anti-identity politics would have been chosen from that vast field of Rep candidates (how many were there?) rather than the least conservative candidate, who expressly stated his non-interest in fighting against LGBT rights issues (especially T), and even supported LGBT.

“I think the differences between us on these issues has been well aired. I don’t see an awful lot of point in going around and around it, do you? People can read our respective analyses and decide which they think is the more accurate. We obviously aren’t going to convince one another.”

Sure. I guess I would like to clarify these points above. But you can clarify anything you feel my response requires, and we can let it rest… let the viewers decide.

Dwayne: I don’t mind continuing to discuss it, but I just don’t want things to get flamey, as they often threaten to do. Yes, these are Provocations pieces, but I try to inject enough humor into them and have them be hyperbolic enough that people won’t get the knives out too much in discussing them.

One more thing re: the alleged “fluke.” In my view, what the electoral map shows is that numerical victories/electoral losses are going to become the new norm, unless the Democrats can broaden their appeal, geographically, beyond the major metro areas. And yes, like it or not, that is going to require moderating/compromising on LGBT issues, which are among the major sticking points for those outside the major metro areas, whatever the merits may be. Hence my point re: the brutally hard business of real politics, as opposed to posturing and signalling, which are easy, but losers.

I have had two jobs evaporate under me because of changing technology. I have walked the pavements looking for jobs, got up at 3 am on freezing mornings to get in early at the overflow labour agencies.

The suggestion appears to be that those of us who have engaged in what some term ‘identity politics’ don’t understand what it is to be in need or to be worrying about our economic future. I am just setting the record straight in my own case.

The point just is the one about political coalition building that I talked about in the essay. The labor vote that the Democrats lost — the working class and the lower middle class who have been so hurt by globalization and automation — are not sympathetic to LGBT issues. Indeed, a good slice of them are quite socially conservative and alienated by a good portion of the identity politics agenda.

It was the trading of the one constituency for another that sent Democrats into the political wilderness with George McGovern. Bill Clinton figured out how to combine both under a single tent. Obama maintained it, for the most part. But then two things happened: 1. The economic fortunes of the first group got even worse than they were before and 2. the identity politics ratcheted up to a hyper-level in the last 5 years or so.

If one cannot manage a coalition, then I think it is foolish politics to trade the entire Rust Belt and interior of the country for 3-5% of the population. And to the extent that these two constituencies are mutually exclusive today and cannot be simultaneously courted, I think the concerns of the Rust Belt population and the hinterland are as pressing and worthy of the Democrats’ focus as those being pushed by LGBT activists. Perhaps more so.

So, yes, in the last election it was LGBT or straight, poor and lower class white hinterland folk. The Democrats chose the former and lo and behold, the only places they won were major metro areas.

Lets get it clear that we are not talking about all straight white lower class hinterland folks, just the subsection of those who’s attitudes to sexual orientation are such that they would allow it to change their vote or not bother to vote. I doubt that is a very large proportion of them.

There was also the factor of the SCOTUS vacancy, Islsmic terrorism and the fact that the Dema were running a lacklustre campaign with a lacklustre candidate with a lot of baggage.

The sum of all the margins in the swing states was about 80,000. In total about 2,000,000 shifted from Democrat to Republican in all the swing states.

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by Laeti Harris, Louise Moody, and Pam Thompson ____ Introduction This essay will explore the material qualities and political significance of the sexed human body, which has evolved in the service of sexual reproduction, although is not limited to that purpose. Our exploration is motivated by the relatively recent emergence in western cultures of campaigns […]

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