More than 1 million people have been told to flee Hurricane Florence, a potent Category 3 juggernaut that has set its sights on the Carolinas, and the news is only getting worse.

A southerly shift in her path Tuesday night made it even less likely that Florence will affect New Jersey. The storm is now threatening to curl south and ride the coast, bringing a 13-foot storm surge to the Outer Banks and dropping up to 40 inches of rain in some places, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.

Florence was downgraded from a Category 4 on Wednesday afternoon because of a slight decrease in wind speed — from 130 mpg to 125 mph — but the wind field has expanded, the National Hurricane Center warned. Wind gusts, however, could be much stronger.

The center of Florence will linger over the southwestern Atlantic between Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and will slowly approach the coastal Carolinas Thursday through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds, which are 39 mph or higher, extend 175 miles from the center of the storm and hurricane-force winds extend about 70 miles.

A satellite image of Hurricane Florence as it approaches the East Coast.(Photo: GOES-East, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

How powerful is Florence?

Florence reached Category 4 status last week but she faced stiff resistance crossing the Atlantic until Friday night. The storm rebounded over the weekend.

The slow-moving storm is expected to start to weaken slowly late Thursday, but will still be an "extremely dangerous" major hurricane by the time is gets close to the coast, the NHC said in a Wednesday afternoon update.

“There’s never been a storm like Florence. It was located farther north in the Atlantic than any other storm to ever hit the Carolinas, so what we’re forecasting is unprecedented," said AccuWeather Vice President of Forecasting and Graphics Operations Marshall Moss in a post Tuesday morning on AccuWeather.com. "Also, most storms coming into the Carolinas tend to move northward, and this storm looks like it’s going to stall over the region and potentially bring tremendous, life-threatening flooding,”

Where is it headed?

This is the million dollar question.

Even though the NHC is now forecasting landfall near Jacksonville, North Carolina, that's really just their best guess. Somewhere between South Carolina and Virginia is the safest bet. The error bars are about 100 miles, on average, for a storm that is three days away, according to the NHC.

Landfall is extremely unlikely in New Jersey, even a brushing, but the closer the storm gets to us before exiting the ocean increases the risk that it could bound our way in the days after.

The forecasting models have continued to bend Florence's expected path toward the southwest and they have begun to coalesce. That's good news for New Jersey, but bittersweet as it means a destructive hurricane is bound for our neighbors in the Southeast.

What's the risk to New Jersey?

This would obviously be dependent on the track. The storm appears to set to make landfall overnight sometime Saturday, but her winds will begin to lash the Southeast coast 48 hours before that.

The likelihood of that threat shifting north to New Jersey appears to be very small. The track's latest shift southward removes the possibility of any damaging winds reaching the state.

The Shore will continue to experience at least some of the secondary effects that a storm of this size and strength can create — such as swells and rip currents — even if it stays a couple hundred miles away.

Remember Hurricane Jose, which formed a year ago this week. The dangerous surf churned up by Jose, which never made landfall in America, was blamed for the deaths of three bathers on the Shore.

Right now, Florence is expected to "wobble around" — stall and dump rain on whatever unfortunate area she finds herself — after landfall, but that doesn't mean she can't cut a path toward the Northeast.

"A tropical storm like this can keep producing rainfall for several days after it makes landfall," Alex Staarmann, a Mount Holly meteorologist, told the Asbury Park Press on Monday.

A high surf advisory is in effect for the Shore area and tidal flooding will linger all week long.

"Regardless of whether Tropical Storm Conditions occur, there is the chance for gusty onshore winds, heavy rain, and tidal flooding for the end of the week and into the weekend," reads Tuesday morning's guidance from the NWS in Mount Holly.

What should you do?

The most prudent action is to keep checking with a trusted weather source — the Press will be updating this story as the storm evolves — and to replenish your emergency kit. Watch the video at the top for some basics.

“My suggestion for everyone out there is to check your supplies. Do you have bottled water? Do you have batteries? Prepare like you’re getting ready for nor’easter season anyway," Steve DiMartino, founder and lead meteorologist for Weather Concierge, a private weather forecaster, told the Press last week. "You don’t have to freak out, but it’s better to have those supplies on hand than to have to go out when everybody else is scrambling.”

The other danger to be aware of is the rough surf.

Many Shore beaches closed for the season after Labor Day, which means there are fewer lifeguarded beaches to swim at, especially on weekdays.

Never swim in the ocean without a lifeguard nearby, but that goes double for when rip currents are expected, as they will be in advance of this storm.

Check back at app.com every day to see if severe weather is headed your way.

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This aerial photo shows a collapsed house along the central Jersey Shore coast on Wednesday, Oct. 31, 2012. New Jersey got the brunt of Sandy, which made landfall in the state and killed six people. More than 2 million customers were without power as of Wednesday afternoon, down from a peak of 2.7 million. Mike Groll, AP

Ortley Beach, Toms River --- Thursday November 29, 2012 --- Assemblyman Scott Rumana R district 40, L-R, takes in the devastation left by Superstorm Sandy at a friends home in Normandy Beach. AMY NEWMAN,

This aerial photo shows destroyed homes left in the wake of superstorm Sandy on Wednesday, Oct. 31, 2012, in Seaside Heights, N.J. New Jersey got the brunt of Sandy, which made landfall in the state and killed six people. More than 2 million customers were without power as of Wednesday afternoon, down from a peak of 2.7 million. (AP Photo/Mike Groll) Mike Groll, AP

In a Feb. 25, 2013 file photo, the sun rises in Seaside Heights, N.J., behind the Jet Star Roller Coaster which has been sitting in the ocean after part of the Funtown Pier was destroyed during Superstorm Sandy. Work is expected to start Tuesday afternoon, May 14, 2013 to remove the Jet Star coaster from the surf in Seaside Heights. NULL, AP

Pompton Lakes cleans up from the effects of Hurricane Irene, August 31, 2011. A room that was attached to a home and floated 300 feet and crashed into a tree in front of his a house on Riveredge Dr. where the wet furniture lines the lawn. Chris Pedota/NorthJersey.com

FloodCleaning_122911_sn -- 85816. OAKLAND, N.J. 09/03/2011. Residents of the riverside neighborhood of Oakland, on Lenape Lane were hard hit by this week's flooding due to Hurricane Irene. Now they are faced with cleanup, and salvaging what's left of their homes and belongings. Carmine Galasso/NorthJersey.com

Christy Collichio, of Paramus, holds photographs of a flooded Rochelle Parkway in Saddle Brook, where her mother was evacuated from during hurricane Irene. About 200 local residents came out to demand that a solution be found to prevent the flooding of homes near the Saddle Brook River Sunday afternoon at Saddle River Park. Leslie Barbaro/NorthJersey.com

BERGENTINE 10/31/2012 President Obama comforts Donna Vanzant, owner of the North Point Marina on East Shore Dr. in Bergentine. Boats from the marina ended up in the street after Hurricane Sandy hit New Jersey. Wednesday, October 31, 2012. Kevin R. Wexler/NorthJersey.com

Little Ferry --- Tuesday October 30, 2012 --- Matid Amini wades through water in front of his Columbus Ave. home in Little Ferry to good samaritan Garfield resident John Mercadante personal truck, where Amini was then transported to a shelter at BC Vocational Technology School in Teteboro. Amini was evacuated with 4 of his family members after they were stranded after Hurricane Sandy. Amy Newman/NorthJersey.com

This Wednesday, Oct. 31 2012 photo shows one of many destroyed oceanfront homes in Mantoloking, N.J. 2012 in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Most of the multimillion-dollar homes along this old-money stretch of the Jersey shore were seriously damaged by pounding surf, wild wind and, in some cases, fire from ruptured gas lines. Numerous homes were destroyed, and some were obliterated, leaving behind just empty sand or maybe a few broken pilings jutting up out of the surf. Wayne Parry, AP

Sizar Barshani, a technician with Green Garden Landscaping Brothers, cuts up a fallen tree on Campus Drive in Totowa, a day and a half after Hurricane Sandy blew through. Steve Hockstein/Special to NorthJersey.com

Annmarie Pansini (center) has had an emotional 72 hours after Hurricane Sandy swept through her Moonachie neighborhood. Gov. Christie told her husband, Michael Pansini (left)and other residents that FEMA would get back to them within 24-48 hours of them calling to register. Thursday, Nov. 1, 2012. Kevin R. Wexler/NorthJersey.com

A driver drives north on the closed southbound lanes of Route 17 in Carlstadt & East Rutherford this morning. The driver made a U-turn at the flooded area. Flooding caused Route 17 to be closed in both directions near Paterson Plank Rd. Thomas E. Franklin/NorthJersey.com

A car passes a Getty gas station located at the corner of River Road and Washington Ave in Hawthorne where there is no power in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey, November 2012. Mitsu Yasukawa/Northjersey.com

The remnants of a flooded basement on Ryle Ave. wait to be cleared out on Monday, August 13, 2018. Flooding in the area on Saturday caused the Peckman River to over flow causing some of the worst flooding in the area since Hurricane Floyd. Amy Newman/NorthJersey.com

Items ruined in flooding are removed from a home on Cedar St. in Little Falls sit on the street on Monday, August 13, 2018. Flooding in the neighborhood near the Peckman River on Saturday is being called the worst since Hurricane Floyd. Amy Newman/NorthJersey.com

Items ruined in the flood removed from homes on Ryle Ave. in Little Falls sit on the street on Monday, August 13, 2018. Flooding in the neighborhood near the Peckman River on Saturday is being called the worst since Hurricane Floyd. Amy Newman/NorthJersey.com

The remnants of a flooded basement on Ryle Ave. wait to be cleared out on Monday, August 13, 2018. Flooding in the area on Saturday caused the Peckman River to over flow causing some of the worst flooding in the area since Hurricane Floyd. Amy Newman/NorthJersey.com

First Response Restoration hired by a resident on Ryle Ave. in Little Falls clear out the contents a flooded basement on Monday, August 13, 2018. Heavy rainfall on Saturday caused the Peckman River to overflow causing some of the worst flooding in the area since Hurricane Floyd. Amy Newman/NorthJersey.com

Employees of First Response Restoration hired by a resident on Ryle Ave. in Little Falls clear out the contents a flooded basement on Monday, August 13, 2018. Flooding in the area on Saturday caused the Peckman River to over flow causing some of the worst flooding in the area since Hurricane Floyd. Amy Newman/NorthJersey.com

Items ruined in flooding are removed from a home on the corner of Ryle Ave. at the intersection of Harrison St. in Little Falls sit on the street on Monday, August 13, 2018. Flooding in the neighborhood near the Peckman River on Saturday is being called the worst since Hurricane Floyd. Amy Newman/NorthJersey.com

April 16, 2007: 76-year-old Sigmund Strysko rakes debris from his lawn, as flood waters recede follwing a Nor'Easter. His home is very close to where the Mahwah and Ramapo Rivers merge. He says only during Hurricane Floyd has he seen the water higher. Thomas E. Franklin/NorthJersey.com

Aug. 30, 2011: Firefighters spray water on what was left of a home on Lincoln Avenue in Pompton Lakes after it was leveled by a gas explosion following the flooding from Hurricane Irene. Chris Pedota/NorthJersey.com

Aug. 28, 2011: A boat that rescued a man that was up to his neck in rapidly moving water while holding onto some trees for about an hour on Lakeshore Drive in Oakland. The flood waters were caused by flooding from Hurricane Irene mixing with already high rivers. Christopher Sadowski/NorthJersey.com

Sept. 17, 1999: A man and boy sit on their front porch surrounded by water and a submerged car in their front yard in Lodi. Lodi is one of the towns around the state that was inundated by flood waters from Hurricane Floyd. Mike Derer/AP

Sept. 19, 1999: A resident checks her mailbox on a still-flooded street in the Mt. View section of Wayne. On the fourth day after Hurricane Floyd drenched the state with record and near record rain falls, some rivers remained above their flood stage. Mike Derer/AP

Sept. 16, 1999: A man, who would not give his name, calls for help on a cellular phone after he drove his car into deep flood waters in Newark. The outer bands of Hurricane Floyd began to sweep through New Jersey Thursday bringing heavy rain and gusty winds. Daniel Hulshizer/AP

April 4, 2005: Flooding in Paterson near Passaic River and Bridge Street. Reginald Warner surveying flood conditions on Governor St. near Bridge Street as the water continued to rise Monday morning. He said it was the worse flooding since Hurricane Floyd. Danielle P. Richards/NorthJersey.com

Sept. 19, 1999: Peter Jackson and his wife, Nancy, walk down their still-flooded street in Wayne. The Jackson's, who have lived here for 20 years, say their house was spared the flood caused by Hurricane Floyd because it is built up above flood height. Mike Derer/AP

Sept. 17, 1999: An unidentified man surveys his flooded neighborhood in Bound Brook from his second floor porch. Rain fall from Hurricane Floyd flooded many areas near streams and rivers throughout the state. Mike Derer/AP