August 15, 2006

Hidden Beneath Maurizio’s Decision

Left-Wing Right Wing Hoo-ha

We all know the political spectrum had no influence in Maurizio’s decision to back Bob Rae, unless Maurizio really thinks Bob Rae wants the party to the right of where Michael Ignatieff wants it. So...Why did Maurizio join Bob Rae?

Sorry Libnews, for I am not really surprised.

Jason Cherniak and Rob Edger point out the reason inevitably why Maurizio was going to have to go with Rae. Leaving Greg Sorbara alone in a riding while Maurizio has to fend for himself across Canada could only have predictable results. If Stephane Dion had taken the Harper line on Lebanon, then he would have lost his riding too. Inevitably, candidates must make sure to retain their own ridings.

Why jump ship in the middle of August when you still have money to spend? That is the question everybody is asking themselves. This will not get Bob Rae much media attention since everybody is on vacation. Why the urgency?

I don’t want to toot Quebec’s horn more than I usually do but I think Rae needed Maurizio’s organizers in Quebec as quickly as possible. Bob Rae is without a chief organizer in Quebec right now. We all hope Reine Hebert (#1) gets better as she recovers from an illness. After seeing Yves Lemire (#2) in our office the other day, I asked myself who is Bob’s organizer now?

Maurizio had one organizer of better than average repute in Quebec, Gaetano Manganiello. Is he the kind of guy to run the campaign in an entire province? I would say no. However, Rae’s desperation to find an organizer in Quebec seems to be heating up. Somebody has to find a purpose for Andre Desmarais’ money before December 3rd.

I think Bob needed Maurizio to come on board right away just to help shore up what Bob is trying to accomplish in Quebec. Quebec was supposed to be Bob’s ticket to victory. Against the likes of Frank McKenna and John Manley, it would have been. With surprises like Ignatieff and Dion in the picture, Bob has had his share of curveballs in the province. Now without a chief organizer and half the province no longer attainable at all for Bob, he will take all the immediate help he can get, and Maurizio’s “decision” to back Bob Rae might really be Bob Rae’s “desperate need” to prevent his Quebec campaign from collapsing.

Peter: the post implies that Bevilacqua needs Rae to keep his own seat. If you're skeptical, I don't blame you...I don't buy it either. Methinks it's merely a clever bit of spin.

From what I've seen and heard, Rae is not hurting in Quebec. While he was a relative latecomer in building an organization in the province he has done well for himself, roughly in the same league as Dion and Ignatieff. Further, with what the Rae team is offering (i.e., the ability to get connected into some very lucrative networks), Rae didn't need to acquire Bevilacqua's organization so he can get a few extra votes. This is about momentum and image, pure and simple. Rae wants to portray himself as a centrist and as the candidate with the momentum. Given the events of the past week, Rae has done well on both accounts.