What we're looking at
We look at whether the Arizona Constitution prohibits state government from taking on debt, as state Senate candidate Lori Klein claims on her campaign website.

The comment
Klein's issues page includes a paragraph that says that state spending went out of control and needs to be cut. Klein also gives a brief summary of how she will remedy the problem if elected, including this statement: "Our state Constitution actually prohibits our state government from taking on debt, yet that is exactly what current and past politicians are doing."

The forum
Klein's campaign website.

Analysis
The Arizona Constitution directly contradicts Klein's statement that the Constitution "prohibits" the state from "taking on debt." Article 9, Section 5, expressly states that there are conditions that justify the state carrying up to $350,000 of debt.

Arizona has exceeded this number by billions of dollars.

Kevin McCarthy, president of the Arizona Tax Research Association, said the state could be open to a court challenge based on the manner by which money was spent and because of the total exceeding the constitutional limit of $350,000.

However, the bottom line is that Klein did not claim the debt was over the limit or that some of the debt may have been created in a questionable manner. These would be different claims and perhaps open for valid discussion. Instead, Klein claimed the Constitution actually forbids the state to have any debt at all. This is simply not true.

What we're looking at
Votes missed during the 2009 legislative session.

The ad
A flier mailed to District 15 voters in October.

Summary of the ad
Flier states that Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, "Missed 140 votes or 40% of the votes cast last year! Denied you a voice at the Legislature; What were we paying her for?"

The comment
Klein's issues page includes a paragraph that says that state spending went out of control and needs to be cut. Klein also gives a brief summary of how she will remedy the problem if elected, including this statement: "Our state Constitution actually prohibits our state government from taking on debt, yet that is exactly what current and past politicians are doing."

The forum
Klein's campaign website.

Analysis
While a legislator's comprehensive voting record is not available online, the vote on each bill is available to the public online or by calling the Chief Clerk of the House of Representatives. A copy of lawmakers' voting records may be purchased for 10 cents a page.

The Cronkite News Service reviewed voting records from the 2009 regular session. It reported that Sinema and 20 other Arizona lawmakers missed more than 20 percent of the floor votes. Sinema missed 140 of 382 floor votes, or 36.6 percent.

Nearly 90 percent of the missed votes occurred during two weeks in late June 2009 of the lengthy session.

"There were two days where I missed a whole bunch of votes," Sinema said. "One of the things the Republicans did in that session was change the rules about notice. So if you happen to be on a plane, and a Democrat, you miss out."

Sinema said she missed votes one week when she was on a trip to Egypt and Israel for leadership training. She said she missed a "significant" number of votes when she was flying back from Washington D.C. after presenting information on Arizona's health-care needs.

"I spent months traveling the state. I held 78 meetings across the state to talk to Arizonans about what they wanted to see in federal health-care reform," said Sinema. "The message of that report: Here are the needs Arizona has with health care. My job was not to promote the new law, it was to help craft the legislation to meet the needs of Arizonans."

Bottom line: Thomas is correct that Sinema missed 140 votes in 2009, although the percentage of missed votes was 36.6, not 40 percent, as Thomas claims.

What we're looking at
Glendale Mayor Elaine Scruggs said the Tohono O'odham Nation would not have to follow Federal Aviation Administration guidelines to build its proposed casino and resort at 95th and Northern avenues near Glendale.

The ad
A flier mailed to District 15 voters in October.

Summary of the ad
Flier states that Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, "Missed 140 votes or 40% of the votes cast last year! Denied you a voice at the Legislature; What were we paying her for?"

The comment
"They (Tohono O'odham Nation) would not have to abide by FAA rules regarding heights, placement of buildings."

The forum
April 21, 2011, meeting with officials from the Goldwater Institute.

Analysis
Scruggs said the Tohono O'odham's plans could threaten Luke Air Force Base and Glendale Municipal Airport because it doesn't have to follow FAA guidelines.

The FAA must review any proposed structure over 200 feet anywhere in the United States and shorter structures if they're closer to airports to see if they could pose a hazard to aircraft or interfere with existing air-traffic procedures or navigation aids, said FAA spokesman Ian Gregor.

Gregor said he is unaware of American Indian tribes being exempted from this process.

The FAA's determination is only a recommendation and it is up to the local government to decide whether to allow someone to build a structure the FAA determines would be a hazard. If the local government is an Indian tribe, the tribe would make that decision, Gregor said.

A local government, including a tribe, that allows a hazard to be built could assume liability for any problems associated with that structure, Gregor said.

Many local governments, including Glendale, have ordinances that preclude them from issuing a building permit for a structure the FAA determines would be a hazard.

Tohono O'odham Chairman Ned Norris Jr. has sent letters to Peoria Mayor Bob Barrett and Gov. Jan Brewer indicating the tribe had no intentions of going against local height restrictions for its project.

"Alterations have already been made so the West Valley Resort will not negatively impact local height restrictions," Norris said in a letter to Brewer.

Initial renderings of the tribe's casino included a 600-room six-story hotel. The latest renderings unveiled earlier this year downsized the hotel to 400 to 500 rooms, at about six stories or lower. Plans still could change.

By comparison, one of Glendale's tallest buildings that gained FAA approval is the 12-story Renaissance Glendale Hotel, about a mile from the proposed casino site.

The southern Arizona tribe previously worked with the Tucson community, where its Desert Diamond Casino and Hotel co-exists less than a mile from the Tucson International Airport.

The tribe in 2006 did a complete makeover of its gaming facility on Nogales Highway to include a new hotel, casino and conference center.

Tucson airport and tribal officials met to ensure the facility met FAA requirements, said Jill Merrick, vice president of planning and development for the Tucson Airport Authority.

She said the tribe revised its conceptual plan to relocate the 150-room hotel away from the airport's flight track.

The tribe also has a working relationship with Luke Air Force Base, which has trained in airspace overlying the Tohono O'odham Nation in southern Arizona since the early 1940s.

Tribal and Luke leaders since 2001 have had a memorandum of understanding that calls for open communications when it comes to Luke's training area over the Barry M. Goldwater Range.

Rusty Mitchell, director of Luke's Community Initiatives Team, said the tribe's proposed West Valley casino and resort is outside the Glendale military instillation's area of influence and therefore base officials are not participating in its discussions.

"The only way I would conceive of an impact to Luke Air Force Base is somewhat a domino effect," Mitchell said. "That is if the casino in some way impacted the (Glendale) airport and it had to modify its flight path then its modification could (affect) Luke's flight path. But that is several steps down the road."

"We have not had those discussions," he continued. “We do have a good relationship with the nation."

Bottom line: Scruggs is correct that the FAA cannot force the tribe to abide by its rulings any more than it can require any local governments to comply. The Tohono O'odham Nation previously worked with Tucson officials to ease airport concerns with a project there, and the tribal chairman has said they would adjust building heights in Glendale as needed.

What we're looking at
Senate candidate Wil Cardon said President Barack Obama promised insurance premiums would fall rather than rise under the new health-care law, but instead premiums have risen from 2010 to 2011.

The ad
A flier mailed to District 15 voters in October.

Summary of the ad
Flier states that Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, "Missed 140 votes or 40% of the votes cast last year! Denied you a voice at the Legislature; What were we paying her for?"

The comment
"There is already evidence to illustrate that President Obama's health care plan isn’t working. The President promised that his plan would reduce health care premiums, but instead, health care premiums for singles were up eight percent from 2010 to 2011. For families, they were up nine percent. The latter figure tripled the three percent growth rate seen from 2009 to 2010."

The forum
Statement made on Cardon's U.S. Senate campaign website, wilcardon.com.

Analysis
Health-insurance premiums have been rising for years, and 2011 was no exception. Average health-insurance premiums increased in 2011 from the previous year by 8 percent for singles and 9 percent for families, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonpartisan organization that analyzes health policy.

But the Obama years have not been the only time insurance costs have risen. From 1999 to 2011, health-insurance premiums have consistently risen, including a 3 percent increase from 2009 to 2010, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Health-insurance premiums have increased by 5 to 14 percent per year since 2000, the Kaiser Family Foundation reported.

Premiums continue to rise because the cost of health care continues to rise.

Although insurance premiums have been increasing, a November 2009 report by the Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan agency that provides economic data to Congress, projected that there could be future savings for policy holders under Obama's health-care law, known as the Affordable Care Act.

Portions of the Affordable Care Act were put in place in September 2010, but all the provisions will not be fully implemented until 2014. The health-care law is being phased in over the next two years, with some of the more significant changes that could lower health-care costs going into effect later.

Obama said in 2009 that comprehensive health-care reform could save families $2,500 annually "in the coming years." He said the reform was aimed at reducing overall health-care costs, the biggest driver of rising premiums.

The CBO estimates that it will take two years past the law’s full implementation for average health-insurance premiums to fall. Given that, CBO projections show that in 2016 the average health-insurance premium will be 9 to 12 percent less than what it would have been if the health-care law had not passed.

Bottom line: Even if the Affordable Care Act were a factor, health-insurance premiums have been rising for more than a decade, sometimes even more significantly than they did in the last year, because of rising health-care costs. Projected savings on premiums will come not immediately, Obama said, but two years after the full law is implemented in 2014.

What we're looking at
Martha McSally, a retired Air Force pilot and Republican District 2 U.S. congressional candidate, said 4 million women are out of the workforce in the past four years.

The ad
A flier mailed to District 15 voters in October.

Summary of the ad
Flier states that Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, "Missed 140 votes or 40% of the votes cast last year! Denied you a voice at the Legislature; What were we paying her for?"

The comment
"Four million women are out of the workforce in the last four years."

The forum
An Oct. 31, 2012, appearance on "Fox and Friends."

Analysis
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report for September 2012, there were 53.4 million women age 16 and older who were not in the labor force. There were 72.7 million women in that age group who were in the labor force, equating to a participation rate of 57.6 percent.

Four years ago, in September 2008, the BLS Employment Situation report indicated there were 49.1 million women age 16 and older who were not in the labor force. There were 71.9 million women in that age group who were in the labor force, equating to a participation rate of 59.4 percent.

Bottom line: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports for September 2008 and 2012 support McSally's claim that the pool of women who were not in the workforce rose by 4.3 million. However, the data also show that the pool of women who were in the workforce also rose, by about 800,000.

What we're looking at
The Yes on 117 Campaign issued a media release stating that all the contributions that the Truth and Concerns on Prop 117 group has received have been from property-tax consulting firms.

The ad
A flier mailed to District 15 voters in October.

Summary of the ad
Flier states that Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, "Missed 140 votes or 40% of the votes cast last year! Denied you a voice at the Legislature; What were we paying her for?"

The comment
"All of the (Truth and Concerns on Prop 117) contributions that were finally reported today are from the property-tax consultants."

The forum
A media release issued Oct. 25, 2012, by the Yes on 117 Campaign.

Analysis
If passed, Proposition 117 would modify Arizona's property-tax system to protect homeowners from large year-to-year changes in property valuation. It would do so by capping property-tax increases at 5 percent on assessed values.
Supporters say the change would improve the property-tax system by simplifying it and preventing Arizona property values from skyrocketing. Opponents say the proposition would cost the state millions of dollars and potentially shift bigger tax burdens onto certain homeowners and retirees.
The Truth and Concerns on Prop 117 group opposes the ballot measure. The group has received $60,000 in campaign contributions, according to an Arizona Secretary of State's Office database.
Two named contributors appear on the campaign-finance reports from Oct. 25. The Arizona Association of Property Tax Analysts donated $40,000, and the Sage Tax Group donated $10,000.
The Arizona Association of Property Tax Analysts is a professional organization for property-tax consultants. The Sage Tax Group offers property-tax consulting services and is located in Arizona.
The Truth and Concerns on Prop 117 group also received $10,000 in contributions from various unnamed sources.
Bottom line: Of the $60,000 in contributions that the Truth and Concerns on Prop 117 organization has received, property-tax consultants or groups that represent them donated $50,000. The campaign also received $10,000 from unnamed sources.

Summary of the ad
Flier states that Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, "Missed 140 votes or 40% of the votes cast last year! Denied you a voice at the Legislature; What were we paying her for?"

The comment
"Sen. Steve Gallardo and I introduced eight bills last session to limit lobbyists' influence on legislators, require more frequent financial disclosure statements from elected officials, set a consistent standard of proof for ethics committee investigations, prohibit public officials' ability to use official materials to promote themselves for election purposes and require disclosure of election expenditures by companies and labor groups."

According to the Arizona state Legislature, SB 1068 would have forbidden state employees from accepting gifts from lobbyists totaling more than $10 in a year. Schapira said he introduced this bill to keep lobbyists from giving tickets to sports or entertainment events to state employees.

SB 1459 would have required state legislators to file financial disclosure statements every six months, including any significant gifts or debts. Currently, the law requires it yearly.

SB 1460 would have required the Legislative Ethics Committee to act through an independent counsel for certain investigations into state lawmakers.

SB 1393 would have prohibited lobbyists from making campaign contributions or promising to make campaign contributions to legislators or the governor, even if the Legislature is not in session.

SB 1390 would have prohibited state employees from accepting gifts from lobbyists worth more than $10 in a year or accepting any gift meant to influence their official conduct.

SB 1391 would have prohibited lobbyists from giving state employees any gift meant to influence their official conduct or any food or beverage.

SB 1394 would have prohibited politicians from using public funds to promote themselves or campaign in the year before an election.

SB 1392 would have required companies to disclose any expenditure they make that is aimed at influencing the outcome of a candidate election.

Senate Republican leadership did not schedule committee hearings for any of the bills, essentially killing them all.

So, even though none of these bills became law, Schapira was accurate in his claim that he and Gallardo introduced eight bills that had the purposes he said they had.

What we're looking at
Gov. Jan Brewer said in her State of the State address that one in four third-graders in Arizona can't read at or near the expected level, and one in four students drops out of high school before graduating.

The ad
A flier mailed to District 15 voters in October.

Summary of the ad
Flier states that Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, "Missed 140 votes or 40% of the votes cast last year! Denied you a voice at the Legislature; What were we paying her for?"

The comment
"But this remains a state where one in four third-graders can't read at or near grade level, and one in four students drops out of high school before graduation."

All Arizona students in public school Grades 3-12 must participate in AIMS testing. The test includes reading and mathematics for Grade 3.

The Arizona Department of Education's "AIMS Assessment Results" document reported that of the 83,626 third-grade students who took the reading exam in the spring of 2012, 75 percent passed. Of the 25 percent who did not pass, 21 percent approached the passing requirement, while 4 percent were marked far below the requirement. This marks a 1 percent decrease of passing students since 2011, when 81,991 third-grade students took the test.

The Department of Education's "2011 Four Year Grad Rate Data" report said 77.85 percent of high-school students graduated in four years.
A similar report showed that 81.31 percent of students graduated in five years.

However, the Department of Education's "Dropout Rate Study Report" puts the 2011-12 dropout rate at 3.68 percent. This percentage is calculated from the total of dropouts for Grades 7 through 12, running from the first day of summer break to the first day of school. Dropouts are defined by the Department of Education as "students who are enrolled in school at any time during the school year, but are not enrolled at the end of the school year and did not transfer, graduate or die."

The bottom line: One in four third-graders did not pass the reading requirements for the AIMS test in the spring 2012 exam, so Brewer's statement regarding reading levels is true. In 2011, 22.15 percent of students did not graduate high school after four years. The 2011-12 dropout rate, ranging from Grades 7 to 12, was reported 3.68 percent. Brewer was incorrect to say that one in four students drop out before graduation. Approximately one in four do not graduate in four years, but a majority of those students arenâ€™t dropping out completely.

What we're looking at
Phoenix Councilwoman Thelda Williams said a single direct flight to China per week would have a $100 million impact to Arizona every year.

The ad
A flier mailed to District 15 voters in October.

Summary of the ad
Flier states that Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, "Missed 140 votes or 40% of the votes cast last year! Denied you a voice at the Legislature; What were we paying her for?"

The comment
"A single direct flight per week would create an economic channel delivering $100 million into Arizona each year. A daily flight would generate $700 million."

The forum
Williams sent an e-mail to The Arizona Republic. Her comments were published in the Phoenix Republic on Dec. 28, 2012.

Analysis
Williams, chairwoman of Phoenix's Aviation Advisory Board, issued a statement to the Phoenix Republic about her accomplishments for the year.

She said: "I led an economic mission to Asia to generate opportunities for Phoenix, including promoting solar manufacturing in our city and advocating for a direct flight from Phoenix Sky Harbor to China or Japan. A single direct flight per week would create an economic channel delivering $100 million into Arizona each year. A daily flight would generate $700 million."

Williams said she got the numbers from the Economic Impact of Nonstop International Flights from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, a November 2012 study by Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business.

Williams made a similar statement in a "My Turn" column in September 2012, before the release of the report. She wrote: "Adding one direct flight to Asia per week would be a game changer. It would generate $100 million for our economy each year. And that's just one flight. Adding a flight each day would pump $700 million into Arizona each year."

However, the study did not include the economic impact for a non-stop flight between Sky Harbor and China or Japan.

The study looked at a non-stop route in 2011, which had 82,242 departing passengers on 311 flights from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport.

"Residents originating travel to London accounted for 42,671 passengers, and there were 39,571 visitors boarding the flight in Phoenix for return to the United Kingdom. Those visitors spent $101 million on lodging, food, auto rental and related outlays, creating an estimated 1,372 local jobs in the hospitality industry."

Lorch said the councilwoman used the $101 million figure from the study and applied it to a potential China or Japan flight. She multiplied that amount by seven days to get the $700 million.

However, the $101 million figure cited in the study was based on about six inbound flights from London a week. Williamsâ€™ quote references a single flight per week.

A spokeswoman for the W.P. Carey School of Business professor who conducted the study said the professor was not available to respond to questions about whether the economic impact for China or Japan flights would be comparable.

The spokeswoman referred questions to Phoenix.

Phoenix officials sent a statement: "The economic impact of an Asia flight could be compared to the impact of the current London flight, not only because of local spending by visitors but also due (to) the economic impact of the jobs generated by the flight, the cargo shipped on the flight and many other factors."

However, at least one travel-study expert said that's not the case.

Douglas C. Frechtling, George Washington University's School of Business professor of tourism studies and chairman of the Department of Tourism and Hospitality Management, has taught graduate courses on tourism marketing, tourism research, tourism development, and tourism-hospitality management since 1991.

"You can't just take figures from one study (and) apply figures to another (situation)," Frechtling said. "That's not valid. We say in economics, a study is set out for what it is set out to measure."

To get an accurate figure on the economic impact, he said researchers would have to look at direct flights from the West Coast to major airports in China or Japan.

They would need to measure the flights per week, the number of seats, number of passengers on inbound and outbound flights and determine what the travelers spend their their money on.

It's not clear whether such a flight to and from Phoenix would be able to attract the same number of passengers as the London flight. And it's also unclear whether the visitors would have the same spending habits.

The ASU study showed visitor spending by country of origin differs. The study used figures based on data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Arizona Office of Tourism, supplemented by a survey of international visitors in the terminal waiting area.

Spending ranged from $1,256 in per-trip spending from Canadian visitors to $2,561 in per-trip spending from those from the United Kingdom.

The bottom line: Williams extrapolated her figures from an ASU study using a flight to London -- not Asia -- that had about six flights a week, not one. One tourism expert said a comparison such as this isnâ€™t valid.

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AZ Fact Check: Keeping Arizona Honest

AZ Fact Check is a service of The Arizona Republic, 12 News and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University. It is not affiliated with www.FactCheck.org, a project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.