According to the updated analysis, Romney would get 330 Electoral College votes to Obama’s 208 votes, even less than the 218 the pair predicted during the summer and still well short of the 270 needed to win. Again, it’s a huge disconnect from national punditry which still shows an easy Obama victory (though experts say new polling will have to gauge the effect of Romney’s success during Wednesday’s debate).

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

The pair’s analysis relies on state and national unemployment figures and changes in real per capita income, among other factors. Their updated analysis includes unemployment rates from August instead of May, and has changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March.

The duo predicts Romney winning all but three of 13 battleground states.

Wednesday night’s debate showed an uninterested and unprepared Obama. He doesn’t care about anything except being re-elected. DON’T GET FOOLED TWICE people. Our young people are brain dead so as not to be thought of as racist for not re-electing a black man and giving a second chance. He has no leader qualities and Al Gore’s theory of altitude issues is rediculous. He lied so much in the debate and specified nothing of his plans, but a 2nd term would be devistating to our country. He’s admitted to being a Muslim and Muslims are commanded to lie to deceive the infadel. We have a Muslim “Plant” in the Whitehouse. Obama is God’s judgement on America for all the illicit activities and corruptness. Vote Obama OUT and save our country!!

European

I cannot believe the level of paranoia blatant racism and religious intolerance in the USA, as instanced by “Sunshine”‘s comment. You call youselves a Christian country and yet you spout lies and drivel like this? What happened to civilisation?

JXR

Oh please, get over yourself. There’s just as much racism and intolerance in Europe. I’d know – half of my direct family is from there…

Berlin, Germany

Sorry, but I agree with “Sunshine”. I cannot believe what the Republicans are preaching. And, Mr Romney and Mr Ryan, along with seemingly the majority of Republicans and Tea Party members, know little about what is going on in the outside world (neither geographically, nor politically). They should think about cutting spending with defense in favour of education. The US is falling further and further behind here, when compared to education of the masses in other countries.

Steve

So…. you can’t believe what the Republicans are preaching but you actually believe that the President didn’t know that the tragedy in Libya was a planned attack or that the President didn’t know that they had requested more security. You believe that right?????? No chance you voted for him last time is there…… ahhhhh, thought so!

Single dad of 2 daughters, working 60 hours a week, spending as much time as I can with them. Refused to accept $400 in monthly aid. Responsibility.

I get this from people like Romney. I admire work ethnics, not popularity to get to where you want to be.

Frank Higginbotham

Sunshine, When does winning a debate by making things up count as a win?? People should be flam-baying Romney for lying? and where are these god fearing Republicans?? That should be screaming in disgust that their candidate has no ethics? Romney could have publicly sold his soul to Satan ( instead of just privately) and the so-called Christian right who still endorses him? Wanting to win so bad that man is willing to your lie to your face with bold face lies? I seem to remember America being a place where we don’t like lying. Just ask Pete Rose. ( Still not in the Hall of Fame…:( )

Fred

So I’m guessing that instead of being an informed voter who actually cares that the unemployment rate is “down” to %7.8 and our nation is drowning in debt and Mr Obama is blaming Libya on everybody else…… you’re just a Democrat….. WOW!

anton

You haven’t been paying attention when the president said that ultimately the buck stops at his desk.

Black Republican

I have never seen a chief executive who ducks blame so consistently.

Michael Harper

Obviously Republicans never mention the fact that a huge percentage of that debt came from the chimp that was president from 2000 to 2008.

Anonymous

Well, the second debate is now over and neither candidate
mentioned the looming fiscal cliff. Whoever gets elected faces a staggering
economic situation that will take years to remedy. This will take a steady hand
that can work with elected officials of both parties, has a willingness to both
convince and compromise, and can truthfully explain the grim realities of
complex economic issues to the American public. Sadly, President Obama has
repeatedly demonstrated he is not up to the task. We don’t have a capitalist system;
we have a mixed economy put in place by FDR in response to the Great
Depression, which was caused by unrestrained speculative actions on Wall
Street. While most of these controls and
government spending programs didn’t work (WW II actually brought us out of the
Depression), some of the control mechanism were much-needed, but it also
started a sense of entitlement to social welfare programs, such as Social Security,
which were not envisioned in the Constitution, and are simply not sustainable
without a healthy enough economy to bring in revenue to cover them. Even with a healthy economy, Social Security
will become increasingly unsustainable because life spans have increased by
15-20 years from the 1940s, and will increase more with medical progress. The sense of entitlement has grown to the
point that some of the safety nets (SSI, in particular) have become hammocks
for chronically disinterested underachievers who have no incentive to explore
their full potential. One wonders what
would have happened to the Prodigal Son if he had been eligible for a
government program. If we continue down
the path of increased government intervention and social welfare programs, we
need only to look at the riots in Europe to predict our future in the near
decades, if we have four more years of the current administration’s policies
and executive orders. If Romney wins,
this will be the most monumental “fix it” challenge he has ever
faced. Larger by epic proportions than
his successes with Staples and Dominos while at Bain Capital, levels of
complexity more difficult than his turnaround of the scandal-ridden, cash-strapped
Olympics, and at least 50 times tougher than keeping “Taxachusetts” in
the black while he was governor.
However, for me, Romney is the only one that even begins to ease my
fears for the future of what may become the late, great United States.

Catherine Foster

This is such a RELIEF to read the predictions of the CU professors. It amazes me that there are any Obama supporters! Romney may very well be our next Reagan.

Michael Harper

How did that work out for you?

doug

330 pts to Romney? Looks like you’ll be taking your model back to the drawing board, Prof.

KIT

Silly and it appears wildly wrong unless every poll and latest analysis is wrong. There is a reason why academics hid in universities and don’t run campaigns. Their model would suggest that how one campaigns is irrelevant to the outcome. Hogwash. (yes, that is an official scientific term)

Elk Haven

Now that the election is over, it seems this model did not display any predictive value. Hopefully some of you will be able to take personal responsibility for being wrong once in a while.

http://www.facebook.com/mike.otto.39589 Mike Otto

these boulder professors are like every other republican…They think if they say something…its true and we all need to agree…We don’t agree….we are tired of the message of fear and hate and division driven by big money and the war machine….stop the rhetoric and get busy solving present problems instead of going back and trying to reinvent the wheel…Your agenda has failed…America is changing faster than rich white men can run…women have the vote….our culture is diverse…lay down your racist fears. Trump needs serious counseling. He has lost his little racist mind..Oh, by the way…did trump give that money to the sandy victims like the private sector is suppose to do…remember thats how republicans want to handle disasters…Its harder to get a rich man lnto heaven than a camel thru the eye of the needle….wonder why. they would sell their mothers for a dime if it was tax free.

jg

Hmm. As a professor myself, I hope these well-meaning but obviously wrong members of my tribe will think hard about their model before next time . . .

Massachusetts

The Wizdumb of El Rushbo, fighting Liberulism with half his brain tied behind his back! Maybe Rush can be a professor at your university, Colorado!

“A second factor is that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall in an unexpected direction.” Let’s assume for the fun of it that these guys are right. I want you to imagine Election Day plus one, the day after the election, if the Democrats lose North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. If that happens, there is going to be hell to pay like you haven’t seen. If that happens, no way they can charge fraud. It won’t stop ‘em, maybe. But, if that happens, you are going to see one of the biggest soul searches you’ve ever seen.

For a while.

And then it won’t take ‘em long to get back on track of blaming the stupidity of the voters, which is something that they carry with them each and every day, and that is contempt for average people.”

Lynn Bartels thinks politics is like sports but without the big salaries and protective cups. The Washington Post's "The Fix" blog has named her one of Colorado's best political reporters and tweeters.

Joey Bunch has been a reporter for 28 years, including the last 12 at The Denver Post. For various newspapers he has covered the environment, water issues, politics, civil rights, sports and the casino industry.