Kansas primary turnout projected to be 22 percent

Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach discusses the estimated turnout for the primary election at a Thursday morning news conference.

Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach discusses the estimated turnout for the primary election at a Thursday morning news conference.

Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach discusses the estimated turnout for the primary election at a Thursday morning news conference.

The state's top election official estimated Thursday that fewer than one-fourth of registered voters in Kansas would participate in the upcoming primary election.

The projected 22 percent turnout in Tuesday's primary would track with turnout of 22.4 percent in the 2008 primary election but fall short of the 25.2 percent in 2010 and 23.2 percent in 2012.

Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who is running for re-election against Republican Scott Morgan, said previous primary voting history, an apparent downturn in advance voting in the current primary and lack of a sophisticated statewide get-out-the-vote operation suggested about 381,000 of 1.73 million registered voters would take part by 7 p.m. Aug. 5.

Turnout in Wichita and other sectors of the 4th congressional district could approach 27 percent because of the raging battle between U.S. Rep. Mike Pompeo and Republican challenger Todd Tiahrt, who previously held that House seat.

"There is a particularly competitive — one might say aggressive — primary going on for that Republican nomination," Kobach said.

Other contests, including the GOP primary between U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts and tea party challenger Milton Wolf, won't inspire an unusual turnout, Kobach said.

In 2012, Kobach predicted turnout of 18 percent for the August primary. Actual turnout was 23.2 percent.

Chris Biggs, a Democratic secretary of state in 2010, said turnout in that year's primary would be 19 percent. It was 25.2 percent. In 2008, Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh, a Republican, indicated turnout would be 19 percent, but participation stood at 22.4 percent.

"It's like filling out brackets before the NCAA's March Madness," Kobach said. "You have hard statistics to go on but, even so, nobody gets it exactly right."

The Kansas primary is open to people affiliated with the state's two major political parties or those who registered as unaffiliated. The registration roster holds 765,000 Republicans, 535,000 unaffiliated people and 422,000 Democrats.

Unaffiliated registered voters have the option of voting with a Republican or a Democratic ballot, but those individuals must first fill out a new Kansas registration form at the polling station.

Voters affiliated with a minor party — the Libertarian Party has 12,600 registrants in Kansas — can’t be part of this primary election.

Kobach said Kansas voters would be required to bring photo identification to cast a ballot.

This is the first election cycle in Kansas that proof of U.S. citizenship for registration has been applied. Eighty-four percent of Kansans registering since January 2013 met the citizenship provision, which leaves 18,300 in limbo because they have yet to demonstrate status as a U.S. citizen.