Political Wisdom: The Battle for the Senate

For much of the summer, Democrats have been worrying that if everything aligns correctly for Republicans, they could lose control of the Senate. Of particular concern: competitive GOP candidates in three states that lean Democratic: California, Washington state and Wisconsin.

At the start of the year, few observers thought the Senate was up for grabs in part because it seemed implausible that Washington’s Patty Murray, California’s Barbara Boxer and Wisconsin’s Russ Feingold were in any serious danger.

All three had won their last elections comfortably. And they were stockpiling the sort of money that flows readily to three-term senators.

But with the political environment turning toxic for Democrats and incumbents, Murray drawing perhaps her toughest possible opponent and Boxer and Feingold facing self-funders, the three Class of 1992 veterans are in the fight of their long political lives as the battle for control of the Senate moves from traditional battlegrounds to blue state venues.

The Senate majority could rest in their hands since it’s difficult to conjure a scenario where Republicans could pick up the 10 seats they need to reclaim the Senate without knocking off at least two of the three.

For much of the hourlong debate, Boxer kept her opponent on the defensive by steering her answers into scathing critiques of Fiorina’s record as chief executive at Hewlett-Packard, where she fired more than 30,000 workers before she was dismissed in 2005.

Asked if, after her three terms in the Senate, it was time to give someone else a turn, Boxer said voters would decide whether to give her another shot “or elect someone who made her name as CEO of Hewlett-Packard, laying thousands and thousands of workers off, shipping jobs overseas, making no sacrifice while she was doing it and taking $100 million. I don’t think we need those Wall Street values right now.”

Fiorina, in turn, portrayed Boxer as an ineffective Washington relic who had lost touch with the concerns of Californians and whose liberal ideology has led to higher taxes and more regulation for the state’s residents and businesses.

“She is for more taxes, she is for more spending, she is for more regulation, she is also for big government and elite extreme environmental groups,” said Fiorina, who said her rival had accomplished little in the Senate because she is “one of the most bitterly partisan members.”

“Her record is long on talk and very short on achievement,” Fiorina said.

The combative nature of the debate at Saint Mary’s College of California in Moraga, 20 miles east of San Francisco, was perhaps to be expected in a contest between a former business executive who has fashioned herself as a “battle-tested” advocate for conservative causes, and a longtime liberal standard-bearer who has vowed to live up to her last name in what may be the most difficult race of her career.

Johnson has spent $4 million on broadcast TV in the state, compared with $1.4 million for Feingold, according to CMAG, a northern Virginia firm that tracks television advertising….”That’s a very big number,” political scientist Ken Goldstein said of Johnson’s spending. “That’s a large number when you compare it to what is typically spent at this point in competitive Wisconsin races. You also don’t typically see disparities like that.”…

It has allowed Johnson to build name recognition overnight. It also makes it easier for him to overcome missteps and parry attacks, as Democrats seek to portray him as extreme and unready.

At Roll Call, Kyle Trygstad says that some Democrats see potential in the Alaska Senate race, now that Sen. Lisa Murkowski has been defeated in the primary.

With Sen. Lisa Murkowski conceding the Alaska GOP primary Tuesday night to lawyer Joe Miller, some Democrats now believe they have a chance to pick up a seat in a state no one thought could be in play in a cycle where Democrats are facing a significant loss of seats.

Democrats spent the previous week ramping up an organization and excitement for the campaign of Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, the Democratic nominee who would have been the party’s sacrificial offering against Murkowski this fall… It is still an uphill climb for McAdams, who begins with a notable financial disadvantage. Through the end of June, he had raised less than $10,000 and has yet to file a required pre-primary fundraising report with the Federal Election Commission that was due in mid-August….

McAdams faces the additional challenge of limited national party money. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee enjoyed a significant cash advantage over the National Republican Senatorial Committee in the 2008 cycle, but now the two are about even. Through July, both had a little more than $20 million.

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