For the Mets, a Different Kind of Save

Using K-Rod in Early, High-Leverage Situations Might Help Avoid Triggering His Big-Money Option

By

Brian Costa

Updated March 7, 2011 12:01 a.m. ET

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla.—Every now and then, Francisco Rodriguez finds himself sitting in the bullpen while the Mets turn to a middle reliever for the most important outs of a game. Every now and then, he wishes they would turn to him.

ENLARGE

If Francisco Rodriguez finishes 55 games this season, a $17.5 million option for the 2012 season will automatically kick in.
Associated Press

"Not even just in the seventh and the eighth inning," Rodriguez said. "Sometimes in the fifth and the sixth, when it's like do-or-die and we have to stop the bleeding. The adrenaline is there. I want to be in there."

Considering the dilemma the Mets face with Rodriguez's contract, it's not such a crazy idea.

If they allow K-Rod to finish 55 games this season, his $17.5 million option for 2012 will automatically kick in. If they try to prevent that from happening by resting him excessively, it will elicit a fight from the players' union.

But there is one way the Mets could keep Rodriguez from finishing 55 games while plausibly arguing it is for baseball reasons. They could essentially redefine the role of a closer, from a pitcher who is used almost exclusively in save situations to one that is used in the most important situations in a game.

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Bases loaded in a tie game in the seventh inning? Bring in the closer. Clinging to a one-run lead with the heart of the Phillies' order due up in the eighth? Bring in the closer. And if Rodriguez's pitch count is too high by the ninth inning? Bring in someone else.

It's a radical idea, but not a novel one. Sabermetricians have long argued that by making closers ninth-inning specialists, teams fail to maximize their potential value. The key word is leverage, which measures the relative importance of each situation on a game's outcome.

Closers normally enter the game in higher-leverage situations than other pitchers, but not always. According to FanGraphs.com, 19 pitchers—including two setup men—were used, on average, in higher-leverage situations than K-Rod was last year.

By occasionally using Rodriguez in high-leverage situations earlier in games and removing him before the end, the Mets might be able to save themselves the $14 million difference between his option and the buyout. It also might help a team that figures to have more trouble getting to the ninth inning with a lead than preserving that lead for the last three outs.

Otherwise, unless K-Rod is injured or the Mets decide to rest him more often, he stands a good chance of finishing 55 games. Even in 2009, when he had only 35 saves, he still finished 66 games. And he was on pace to finish more than 55 games last year before undergoing season-ending hand surgery in August.

To be clear, Rodriguez, who pitched one perfect inning in the Mets' 6-5 exhibition win over the Boston Red Sox on Sunday, was not advocating for finishing fewer games. He might get the urge to pitch in the sixth inning, but he still sees his job as finishing the ninth. "I'm the closer," he said. "I have to realize that."

And Mets manager Terry Collins said he isn't planning to use Rodriguez earlier than the eighth inning. "You start to change these guys and get them out of their pattern, you're going to ask for trouble," he said.

But here is something more troubling than summoning a closer to pitch in the seventh inning: paying him $17.5 million at a time when the team's finances are in shambles.

That would make him the highest-paid reliever in baseball in 2012, barring a free-agent signing for more money next winter.

On the other hand, the $14 million the Mets would save with the buyout would go a long way toward helping general manager Sandy Alderson rebuild a top-heavy roster.

If there's a way to keep K-Rod from reaching the option while arguably getting more value out of him in 2011, why not try it?

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