The International Space Station (ISS) was launched 14 years ago, on November 20, 1998. This week can be a good opportunity to contemplate all that has been achieved and discuss the future of this unparalleled manned program in space. Yet its two principal operators - the U.S. and Russia - seem to drag their feet over further collaboration.

The ISS has been on the orbit for just
over 5,000 days. More than 200 individuals from 15 countries have been to the
station since 1998, when the station’s first module was launched into space.

“The space station program has been in
progress for 40 years,” said Sergei Krikalyov, head of the Yuri Gagarin
Cosmonaut Training Center. “The first Salyut station was launched in 1971. And
the experience we had obtained with the Salyut station was utilized when the
Mir station was built. This core module has become the prototype of what would
eventually become the International Space Station.”

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“We learned so much when we worked at
Mir. I cannot fathom how we would have built the International Space Station
without all the knowledge we acquired. When that project started, both the
Russians and the Americans knew how to cooperate, how our equipment worked
together, and even how all of us would have a rest together,” said American astronaut
Michael Barratt.

“I believe that space research in the
global prospect of outer space exploration must be an international effort,” NASA
astronaut Peggy Whitson said. “We are doing something for the benefit of the
whole world, as one global community; but, in reality, the most complex thing
we have done together is the space station. That is the indisputable proof that
together we are stronger.”

Today, despite some minor, routine
technical problems and one serious problem caused by the accident of the
Russian freighter spacecraft Progress, the manned program is still running.
Unfortunately, absence of hardware problems is not enough to consider the
International Space Station program a success.

It is difficult to tell who will board
the ISS of tomorrow, but this is what will determine the future of the unique
international orbital complex.

At the same time, there is little chance that
the current lineup of the station’s operation team will continue taking part in
the program. The two principal operators of the ISS – Russia and the U.S. –
both, for their own reasons, have no interest in further work within their
common orbital home.

Furthermore, both Russia and the U.S. are
gradually developing new projects for manned flight programs. What is going to replace
the ISS?

According to the NASA operations
program published on July 5, 2011, the low Earth orbit where the ISS is
currently operating will be reserved for private companies that will be
bringing tourists, carrying out their research, etc.

The first private
spacecraft Dragon has already successfully docked at the ISS. The public funds
thus saved will be used to finance outer space research â i.e., the Moon and
Mars exploration projects.

Will the U.S. have any motivation to
continue its cooperation with Russia within the ISS program? The joint research
program is negligible, but what about independent scientific experiments?

Even
today their number is insignificant. And now the U.S. is commencing preparation
for the Lunar-Mars exploration, which our American partners seem to consider
their private business. At this rate, having access to the ISS is not among American
priorities, to put it mildly.

On the other hand, the ISS remains an
important factor for Russia in the development of its manned space exploration.
Loss of the station is literally a critical blow to development of the entire
industry.

Nonetheless, in May 2011, the head of
the Central Research Institute of Machine Building, Gennady Raikunov, said that
the ISS is a closed chapter for Russian science, and that the future of science
lies with exploration of the Moon.

“We have hit the limit of the capacity of
the ISS and now we need to start thinking about something bigger, something
more significant," he said. "We are thinking, theoretically for now, about using our
natural satellite – the Moon – as a satellite, where we could set up many more
experiments and make use of far more opportunities. These opportunities are
absolutely immense.”

It seems that the head of the main
Russian space enterprise and member of the ISS program has discarded the
station already.

So what awaits the ISS in the end? It
seems that this question remains open for now. What is known is that, according
to Krikalyov, the International Space Station will continue its orbital work
until 2020, at the least.