Gonfalon Cubshttp://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/gonfalon_cubs/
Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fansenbjpack@gmail.comCopyright 20162016-12-08T22:09:00+00:00Cubs roster update - post Winter Meetingshttp://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/gonfalon_cubs/discussion/cubs_roster_update_post_winter_meetings
Not surprisingly, the Cubs have been relatively quiet so far this offseason. After a couple moves, I thought it’d be worth putting the current projected 25 man roster on paper to see where things stand.

I see those 22 as locks. Maybe Duensing is a lock, but I don’t think $2mil is a guarantee. Maybe Zazstryzny earns a spot, too, but he’s pretty far from a guarantee. The Cubs are short an IF, and I’d think LaStella would have the inside track, but he also isn’t a lock. Szczur is out of options, but he might not have a spot unless Almora tanks ST. Other people on the current 40 man with shots and option include Leathersich, Pena, and Candelario. I think the Cubs are going to continue downplaying the chances of another big move, but I feel (hope?) there’s still another big splash to be made. As of now, the payroll is projected to be lower than last year, and I wouldn’t think it’d stay that way (though perhaps that means a bigger midseason trade).

]]>2016-12-08T22:09:00+00:00Starting to think about 2017http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/gonfalon_cubs/discussion/starting_to_think_about_2017
I’m not entirely ready to start thinking about next year yet. I’m still enjoying this year (side note: Friday at 7pm on FS1 is the 2016 Cubs movie that MLB produced). There hasn’t been a ton of offseason movement or rumors yet, and the Cubs haven’t really done anything of note, unless of course you’re a 40 man roster fanatic. Seeing that Fangraphs has put out their 2017 projections made me at least put up this post. If anything major comes up during the winter meetings, I might start a new topic. But for now, this is as good of a thread to talk about the offseason that we can bring up as things happen.

Without thinking about it too much, the few things that jump out at me in the projections, in no particular order:

1. Candelario, as they pointed out in the article. From what I’ve read about him, he isn’t seen as a great defender. He does have multi-position flexibility going for him, but on the wrong end of the spectrum that is pretty solidly covered by the current roster (3b/1b/lf/rf). A nice benefit is that he’s switch-handed. He really tore up AAA in limited time: 309PAs, .333/.417/.542, but doesn’t seem to have a place on the current roster. I also don’t see how a Soler, or even Schwarber, trade even clears enough space for him. You would think they’d still want to get him regular ABs, so a Coghlan or LaStella role would probably be less than ideal now. His clearest path right now is as an injury replacement; or perhaps he can big a bigger trade piece than we’ve seen before.
2. Schwarber, as has been talked about here plenty, is a guy most Cubs fans feel, and we get the impression the FO agrees, is likely to exceed his relatively modest projection. The defense has been talked to death - and I’m firmly in the he can get up to pretty close to averagish in LF for now if left alone and healthy - and the advanced metrics do love him (3rd on the team in wOBA). I just feel he can cut down on that K rate without giving up too much power, and up that BA (either by getting better against LHP or just being platooned out against them). Regardless, it’s just fun to think about the lineup with him back full time.
3. Fowler. That’s still a really good forecast for him, and he’s surely going to be worth whatever contract he gets, at least in the short term. I still don’t see the Cubs resigning him, but the emotional side would still love to see him back. If he did come back, and for multiple years, perhaps that allows for a Soler/Almora trade package for that elusive young, cost controlled starter*.
4. Lackey. I’ll never really like him, although I see his uses. That he’s still this effective as his age is pretty impressive. Having him as the 5th starter would be an awesome best-case scenario, pipe-dream.

*In a complete one of his make-believe columns for ESPN, Jim Bowden (I know) said he’d like to see the Cubs/Rays made a deal. He suggested Happ/Soler/Almora/Edwards for Archer/Kiermaier/Colome. While I’m not crazy about that exact trade, it’s at least an interesting idea and seem fairly reasonable on paper. I think how fair depends on how you feel about some of those guys; but it would at least seem to address on paper how each team could be addressing their rosters (and of course, saves the Rays money, though since Archer has such a reasonable deal it’s not *that* much big picture).

The floor is now open.

]]>2016-11-29T18:10:00+00:002016 Season Recaphttp://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/gonfalon_cubs/discussion/2016_season_recap
]]>2016-11-08T19:08:00+00:00Game 7 Feelingshttp://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/gonfalon_cubs/discussion/game_7_feelings
World Series Champions. Never a doubt.

For Joel.

For my grandpa. For everyone that never saw this. Cubs were the best team, February through November. Champions.

Seriously. Whew. Holy ####, not sure I’ll be able to fall asleep anytime soon. So, to try and organize some half thought-through thoughts.

Good:
1. Chapman. This was a tough situation for him; he’s been bad all year with inherited runners and even worse in the playoffs. Longest outing in his pro career, almost most pitches thrown. He made it tougher on himself not covering first (though, not sure they get the out), but still came through.
2. Lester. I’ll get to the decision to pull him in a minute, but he was very, very good. The HR to Ramirez was a good pitch, and he got beat. Otherwise, there was minimal hard contact. He’s been very good these playoffs.
3. That one crooked number inning. They could have had more, and I’d feel a lot better about the next couple of games had they been able to keep scoring, but hopefully it’s just the start. Bryant feels like a guy whose homers come in bunches, let’s hope that’s the case. Rizzo looked good, Russell looked good again, ####, Heyward is right on top of the ball (he clearly starts rest of the series no matter what, IMO).
4. Maddon. I think, and not just because it “worked” - and I have the texts to prove it - pulling Lester there was fine. It was about to be the 3rd time through the order for the heart of their lineup, with Santana and Ramirez (the guys who made solid contact) coming up, plus Napoli getting his kinda 4th look. It was aggressive, and in an elimination game, I think you have to be aggressive. However…

Bad:
1. Maddon. I don’t see how Montero with 2 outs is significantly better than Ross in that spot. I think it’s crazy Schwarber didn’t get a PH chance the last couple of games. I understand putting Contreras in for defense (and FWIW, as much as the SP don’t seem to prefer Willson, the relievers all seem to, or at least Joe manages like they do). I’m not sure the exact sequence makes a ton of sense, but it worked. I’m not sure exactly why Edwards is clearly ahead of Strop (Strop hasn’t pitched much; maybe there’s something about his pitches that the Indians make for a good matchup, I dunno), but I like the confidence in CJ’s stuff.
2. Baez. He looks like 2014 Baez. This is not the time for him to sit - his defense is too important, but his ABs are just praying for a mistake. His patience and pickiness have gone right out the window. Any strike he sees the rest of the series is a mistake by the Indians pitcher.

Now, can the Cubs actually hit Tomlin? Sure feels like they should be able to, he’s a Hendricks-esque pitcher that doesn’t quite have Kyle’s command. He’s obviously figured something out recently, but these last 6 weeks or so for him really seem out of character. The Cubs should be able to run out a a really strong lineup (even with Heyward in it; hell, hit Javy 9th), and I think Jake has another masterpiece in him. Then, well, anything can happen.

Go Cubs.

]]>2016-10-31T03:58:00+00:00Game 4 Feelingshttp://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/gonfalon_cubs/discussion/game_4_feelings
Well, hard to like much after that. Kluber was awesome, yet again. The Indians have made almost no mistakes, and have taken advantage of most of the Cubs. The lack of offense is surprising, but the defense falling apart bugs me the most. We can not pick moves here and there, but the Cubs just haven’t been good enough.

Luckily, there’s 3 more games. Once again, on paper, the Cubs have the pitching advantage. They could very easily win each of the next 3 games, or it could end tomorrow. I don’t expect them to go quietly though. Go Cubs.

]]>2016-10-30T04:05:00+00:00Game 3 Feelingshttp://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/gonfalon_cubs/discussion/game_3_feelings
Well, not a lot that can be sugar coated after that one. It really is amazing that was a 1-0 game, regardless of the winner, considering the weather. The fact that neither team came anywhere near close to hitting a home run is absolutely unbelievable. Anyhow..

Things I liked, enjoyed, or that gave me hope
1. Only giving up 1 run in this weather is a good thing, I guess.
2. I really don’t have any complaints with how any of the Cubs pitchers pitched. It would have been nice for Hendricks to be a littler sharper and last longer, but it really doesn’t feel like he was hit hard or anything.
3. ....
4. Bill Murrays 7th innning stretch was entertaining, I guess?
5, Chapman is throwing his slider again, and getting it across. That’s a positive.

Things I didn’t like, didn’t enjoy, or that worried me
1. Another ####### shutout? Of this team? In this weather? Are you ####### kidding me? I know Tomlin was pitched well lately, but is really this good? Come on.
2. Fowler is still absolutely lost at the plate. When he goes, they go. He hasn’t gone yet this postseason.
3. 7 LOB. That’s actually a pretty low number (13 in game 2, 9 in game 1), but was there really any time the Cubs were seriously threatening? Soler’s “triple” with 2 outs? And btw, #### anyone who thinks to criticize him for not running. No way he gets anywhere near home if he’s running out of the box.
4. The pitching was so set up for the Cubs to capitalize. Tomlin with the wind blowing out; getting Miller out so early because of the batting order. Shaw throwing so many pitches. If they can’t win this one, why should we assume it’ll be better against Kluber, even on short rest?
5. Lackey pitching with the Cubs down 2-1. Ugh. He could lose, and the Cubs could come back from 3-1, but it still doesn’t make me happy to see him pitching tomorrow.

]]>2016-10-29T04:01:00+00:00Game 2 Feelingshttp://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/gonfalon_cubs/discussion/game_2_feelings
Late night thoughts, as I wait for the NyQuil to kick in.

Things I liked, enjoyed, or that gave me hope
1. Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber. Is this real? Were I a neutral fan, I might start thinking this storyline is getting pounded into the ground. But it’s just so damn incredible. The entire postgame show was about whether or not he should play LF Friday, and how the Cubs are a different team with him. Yes, they are, but they were still really, really ####### good without him. Personally, as a fan, I say #### it, play him. The rational side of me says it’s crazy. He’s not going to be good out there, but it’s hard to target LF. The Indians supposedly are planning on starting Santana in LF, and that’s not exactly going to be a picnic for them. So I say, let’s go crazy.
2. Arrieta. Effectively wild. It helped that tonight’s zone was more favorable for both pitchers, but I think Jake benefited more (I will confirm whether I’m imagining that or not tomorrow).
3. Montgomery. Hold your horses on giving him a rotation spot, but he was just incredible yet again. I think if that’s the way the Cubs choose to go…who ####### cares, let’s talk about that in a month. Maybe his curveball isn’t exactly Rich Hill’s, as Smoltz said, but it was unhittable tonight.
4. Zobrist. Again, man, what a difference for the lineup when he’s making contact like that. He’s not a traditional cleanup hitter, and in a world with Schwarber healthy all year, he probably never gets the chance. But it just works.
5. Rizzo. He fouled off a ridiculous number of pitches (ed. note to self: put in this number tomorrow), and he’s absolutely clobbered the ball (multiple balls were 105mph+ that went foul). He’s hitting several homeruns back in Wrigley.
Win Bonus: Russell. Maybe Smoltz exaggerated about one little thing clicking for, but he didn’t look like the same hitter tonight as last night. Maybe that’s just the dropoff in pitcher quality, but he looked good again.

Things I didn’t like, didn’t enjoy, or that worried me
1. 13 LOB, after 9 LOB last night. Good news, they’re getting guys on. Bad news, they keep leaving the bases loaded. Got enough tonight, but let’s not have another game where we are ruing too many missed chances, especially missed chances to put the game away.
2. Arrieta. Wild, but effective. I think he really benefitted from the generous zone, and was kind of lucky to get out of the game relatively unscathed. Were I an Indians fan, I’d be talking about hitting the ball hard off him and looking forward to the next time he pitches (similar to our comments about Kershaw after game 2). He was lucky Maddon pulled him when he did.
3. Fowler. He got a hit late, but he’s really looked lost these games. 4 strikeouts in 9ABs, and not close on a bunch of pitches (he looked late on some hittable fastballs both nights).
4. RF. It’d be nice if the Cubs didn’t feel any extra pressure to force Schwarber into the lineup. But the Cubs have gotten nothing offensively from Heyward, Soler, Coghlan or Almora. If one of them were just slightly below useful at the plate, it’d be a lot easier to stick to the Schwarber DH/PH plan.
5. I love, love Contreras. He doesn’t need to try and break any of Yadi’s mound visit records though. Maybe it really just is his youth/inexperience that causes him and the pitchers to seem to be on different pages as often as they are, maybe I can see why certain veterans prefer throwing to other guys. On the other hand:

On one hand, sure, this is a long game. On the other, we have 5 more games max for the year and then it's winter and death, so shut up.

]]>2016-10-27T03:37:00+00:00Game 1 Feelingshttp://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/gonfalon_cubs/discussion/game_1_feelings
There’s plenty of analysis and overanalysis out there for everyone to find. Rather than writing a long post in one of the threads, I figured I’d just throw all my thoughts up here and see what sticks.

Things I liked, enjoyed, or that gave me hope
1. Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber. I kind of forgot how good of an eye he had, so there was something to like from each of his at-bats. He only swung at 2 pitches out of the zone (I think), and even more impressively he hung in against Miller (Kyle had a decent platoon split last year). The worry about his timing seems to have been tentatively answered, considering the only guy with overall better at-bats was Zobrist. Now, hopefully he can shake off some of that baserunning rust.
2. Everyone against Miller (save Russell, see below). His stuff wasn’t nearly as crisp as Kluber’s, and had less movement. But it seemed like everyone saw the ball fairly well; yeah, they still swung at sliders out of the zone, but that’s what Miller does. They really made him work, and that could be good for tonight or later in the series. I especially liked Baez and Schwarber against him.
3. Zobrist. I already mentioned his good at-bats, and it’s nice to see him making contact like that.
4. Strop/Grimm. I might have had Grimm higher if he hadn’t given up the late walk and hit. But his curveball was sharp, and he’s really been quite reliable for some time. Strop hasn’t been given that many high leverage shots this postseason (or they’ve been short appearances), but it’s time to consider him the main setup guy.
5. As nasty as Kluber’s stuff looked yesterday, he’s not *that* good every time out. He’s also less likely to be that good again on short rest in game 4. I didn’t feel like the Cubs were nearly as helpless against him as they were against Kershaw (the first time) and Hill. In fact, seeing how the Cubs adjusted to Kershaw gives me hope for how they’ll approach facing Kluber again.

Things I didn’t like, didn’t enjoy, or that worried me
1. Russell. I’m not going to overreact to one bad night, but he looked utterly helpless against everyone.
2. Rondon. He’s not right, and both Strop and Grimm should be ahead of him in the pecking order.
3. Coghlan. It was much ado about nothing with him, as his defense wasn’t challenged and his at-bats really didn’t matter. Still, I don’t like the decision making process, and really hope Maddon considers Contreras in LF tonight and Zobrist in RF.
4. The Indians offense didn’t look that good - a lot was Lester’s lack of control, and both home runs were meatballs - but I didn’t think they were anywhere close to overwhelmed, and I was more impressed with them overall than either the Giants or Dodgers. I’m doing a poor job explaining this, but I guess I’m trying to say that they put up 6 runs on a not great night for them rather easily, so on a good night they could really make someone pay even more for being off. IOW, I’m worried about Jake tonight and Lackey in game 4.
5. How much they talked about Lester and the baserunners. Once again, it was way more talk than action. One steal on two attempts is nothing. Sure, Lester could have picked Lindor off the first time if he could throw to first, but it really wasn’t a game changer. I fear tonight against Arrieta/Montero it will mean more.

Overall, it’s still amazing to be here. I still think the Cubs will win, nothing last night changed how I feel about the series. If anything, I’m *more* hopeful now because of how Schwarber looked.