MLBPipeline.com though has a fully updated Nats system top 30, including the 2017 draft prospects, and the list is kind of telling. Lets dive into it, looking at some of the new guys, the guys who are off the list, the movers and the fallers.

The Top 4 hasn’t changed: Victor Robles, Juan Soto, Erick Fedde and Carter Kieboom remain our top 4 prospects, as they have been ever since we parted ways with Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez (more on them later). Now, whether this will still be the case in a week’s time, when the trade deadline has passed, remains to be seen. Robles remains the #1 guy, the guy who I think the team is looking at to have a “passing of the torch” moment once Bryce Harper departs town, and remains an incredible bargain in terms of bonus-dollars-versus-prospect status ($225k bonus in 2014). Soto has streaked up the ranks: prior to the beginning of the 2016 season he wasn’t even in the top 30 lists; now he’s pushing Robles at the top.

Six of our Top 30 are 2017 draftees: This was the point that surprised me, looking at the list. MLB’s #5, 6, 16, 19, 22 and 24th ranked players have played for about a month now in our low minors. #5 and #6 (the ones that are somewhat meaningful) are of course our top two drafted arms Seth Romero and Wil Crowe. The reason there’s so much room for adding new draftees though is…

We’ve lost a TON of prospects in the last 12 months: Just looking at my master list, here’s the departures from prospect lists lately:

Graduated: Grace, Glover, Cole, Goodwin this year, Turner last year

Traded: Neuse, Luzardo this year, Giolito, Lopez, Dunning, Hearn, Schrock, Avila last year or last off-season. Dunning in particular was in our system so shortly that he never made it to a ranking list.

That’s 13 guys, some of whom were pretty prominently ranked and all of whom were mentioned here or there on various lists.

Now, how about the guys that are left? Here’s some guys who are really shooting up, rankings wise (and yes, some of their rise is due to the surgical removal of so many guys above them … nonetheless, these guys have all played well):

Juan Soto: as mentioned above; MLB has him #2 now. A year ago he was in the 15-17 range, and prior to 2016 season he was a nobody, outside the top 30.

Yasel Antuna: our big-money 2016 IFA signing is not disappointing; he had no playing time this time last year and was ranked in the 19-25 range just based on his bonus. Now? He’s hitting .300 as a 17-yr old in the GCL with nearly a .40o OBP (as of this writing).

Daniel Johnson: recently promoted and it was well earned: Johnson hit 17 homers in the first half in Hagerstown (not an easy place to hit for power), made the all-star team, and got promoted. MLB.com has him 10th right now; they had him #29th in April.

Blake Perkins: It looks like he’s finally getting the hang of switch hitting, and his OPS in Low-A is 200 points higher than it was last year. He has generally been in the 16-20 range of prospects; now he’s at #11.

McKenzie Mills: the lefty Low-A starter has exploded this year; he sits at 12-2 with more than a K/inning for Hagerstown, made the All-Star team and seems ready for a promotion. MLB has him at #18 in our system; he’s never even been an honorable mention before.

Raudy Read: he’s stepped it up a bit, hitting for some power and holding his slash line to respectable levels as a 23-yr old in AA (and on the 40-man roster).

Taylor Gushue: also a 23-yr old catcher, with an OPS above .820 one level below Read in High-A. Never before ranked (at least for us), MLB.com has him 25th now. I could see these two catchers pushing each other and pushing the likes of Severino and Lobaton off the 40-man.

And here’s some guys whose prospect value has taken a nosedive this year:

Pedro Severino: speaking of catcher depth; Severino has seen his stats take a nose dive as he repeats AAA; his 1.048 OPS figure for the Nats last September seems like a mirage. He’s still on the 40-man, and his reputation is more about his defense than his offense, but that’s still just a backup catcher ceiling.

Drew Ward: Year after year, Ward’s prospect value drops. He used to be top 10; now he’s fallen to the 20-range. He’s repeating AA and hitting just .224; he’ll be rule-5 eligible this coming off-season but I can’t see saving him with a roster spot right now. If he doesn’t turn it around, he’ll end up in org-guy territory soon.

Austin Voth: perhaps the most curious of our falling prospects. He was in the 6-7 range just a year and a half ago, then finished a full strong season in AAA. 2017? He’s struggled, gotten demoted, and struggled further.

Jakson Reetz: he’s now pushed down to 26th, after routinely hanging out in the 10-15 range after being such a high draft pick. He’s basically been socially promoted by virtue of his bonus figure, having never hit above .230 outside of complex ball. He’s now backing up a guy in Gushue who’s 2 years older, but also has an OPS that’s 200 points better.

Anderson Franco: what happened here? He was solid in rookie ball … and barely at the mendoza line in full season ball. Another guy routinely given top 10 rankings early on; he’s now just hanging on ranked #27 by MLB.

Osvaldo Abreu: he’s moved up a level a year, now playing in AA, but his numbers have had corresponding declines with each promotion. He wasn’t ever considered a major prospect, but now he’s barely considered a minor one.

Telmito Agustin: he couldn’t hack it in High-A and was demoted back to Low-A this year. He’s only 20, so he has time, but he’s basically out of the prospect discussions for now.

Nick Banks & Rhett Wisemann: both big-time college program upper-end draft picks, both scuffling professionally. Neither now ranked by MLB whereas both had cracks at the top 10 of our prospect lists at some point.

Joan Baez: you can’t teach velocity right? Well for Potomac this year Baez had more walks than Ks … and more walks than innings pitched. He’s now a 22-yr old in GCL beating up on a bunch of kids, hoping to get his mojo back.

Matt Skole: he’s still a “prospect” remember? He’s 27, hitting .235 in AAA, and has yet to be called up even though the team is so short on hitters that they called up Severino this past week. I put Skole in here just to see if MartyC is still reading.

And now for some predictions related to our prospects:

Fedde is getting called up and soon, and will exhaust his rookie eligibility before the season is over. The team can’t let Edwin Jackson post 5+ ERAs like he’s been doing for the last few seasons.

Robles, Soto, Kieboom stay put to keep our top 4 in tact at the trade deadline.

I can see the team cashing in some lesser prospects in trade though, perhaps guys ranked in the 8-15 range. Selling high on Daniel Johnson perhaps, or flipping some C depth from Severino, Read, Gushue, Kieboom.

#1 prospect next year: still Robles; he’s not debuting until at least the super-2 deadline next year.

# prospect once Robles graduates: It’ll be Soto. For reasons explained in the next bullet point…

How quickly will Romero get to the Majors? Pretty quickly. I could see him ending next year in AA, then pushing for a spot in the 2019 staff. He won’t be in the minors long enough to get ranked above Soto. That is unless he turns out to continue his knuckle-headedness… at which point we’ll all write many comments about how we “told you so” for drafting him.

Did I miss anyone?

PS: fun trivia; there have only been eleven (11) different players to hold the title as “#1 Washington Nationals prospect” since Nov 2004. I’ll bet you can’t name them all.

Every year I say i’ll stay away from the Mock Draft links … and every year I come back. Here’s a running collection; i’ve listed their top-5 and then who they project the Nats to take at #25 (if they project out that far). Honestly, projecting even the top 5 has been folly in year’s past; last minute changes occur all the time and drastically change the top of every draft. Look no further than the 2011 draft that netted the Nats presumed top pick Anthony Rendon.

I’ll continue to add in mocks as they get published post-posting up until the draft.

However this year you’ll notice that the same general collection of names are listed in nearly every top 5 collection. Here’s a quick summary of those top-5 guys.

Collegiate top-5 names:

Brendan McCay: 1b/lhp Louisville. All-American as a Soph. 2016 Collegiate National team. Good two-way player likely being drafted as a pitcher.

Alex Faedo: rhp Florida. 2016 Collegiate National team; #1 starter from Florida, less known for developing pitchers but who did have two 1st round arms drafted just last year (A.J. Puk, Dane Dunning).

Jeren Kendall OF Vanderbilt. 2016 Collegiate National team; was presumptive 1-1 before really struggling at the plate in 2017, opening the door for one of the above college arms likely going 1-1.

J.B. Bukauskas rhp UNC via Ashburn, VA. 2016 Collegiate National team, fantastic numbers leading UNC to its first national seed in a while. Considered undersized (he’s 6’0″) but has a big arm; widely projected at #6 to Oakland but does get some top-5 press.

Tristan Beck rhp Stanford who did not play in 2017 due to injury but was a pre-season all-american; some thought he may get picked as an injury stash like we’re seeing more and more.

Adam Haseley, 1B/rhp from UVA who has massively improved his draft stock this year. He went from being just a good player to being mentioned in the top 5 in some mocks. I don’t think he goes top-5, but he’s gone before the top-10 is done.

Prep top-5 names:

Hunter Greene: ss/rhp Notre Dame High, CA (UCLA commit). 2015 18U team as a Jr., Standout at PG Nationals 2016. Two-way talent, 95-97 on the mound but also a fantastic hitter. 18U National team trials. Area code star. Likely getting drafted as an arm, might be the first prep RH starter to go 1-1. Stopped pitching mid-way through the spring though, presumably to save his arm for his first pro season.

Shane Baz, rhp from Concordia HS, TX (TCU): fast mover, mid-90s big righty in the same prep construction from the Houston area as the likes of Josh Beckett, Jamison Taillon and Tyler Kolek. I don’t think he’s a top-5 pick but should be top-10.

Here’s the Mock draft collection that i’ve saved over the past months. If you know of one I’m missing, let me know and I’ll add it in.

MLBPipeline (Jim Callis) 2017 Mock Draft v4.0 6/9/17: Wright, Greene, Gore, McKay, Lewis. Nats on Clarke Schmidt, a good RH starter from South Carolina who had to have TJ surgery (sound familiar?). However, in his mock this leaves Houck, Pearson and Carlson on the board, and I think the Nats would take any of those three ahead of TJ guy.

MLBPipeline (Jim Callis) 2017 Mock Draft v5.0 6/12/17: McKay, Greene, Gore, Lewis, Hiura. Wow. Nats taking Seth Romero, a LH starter who was just kicked off of UHouston’s team, his 3rd “strike” with the team. Sounds like a winner to me and I hope the Nats are not foolish enough to take a 3-time suspended college player. Problem is, he’s a Scott Boras client, and people are worried that Boras is talking to the ownership again…

D1Baseball (Frankie Piliere) 2017 Mock Draft v2.0 dated 6/9/17: Wright, Greene, Lewis, McKay, Gore. Nats taking Romero. Problem with this mock: the next 3 after Romero are Carlson, Peterson and Lange, and I’d have to think the Nats would take any of those three over Romero.

HeroSports.com (Chris Crawford) 2017 Mock Draft v4.0 dated 5/12/17: McKay, Greene, Wright, Bukauskas, Beck. Nats taking Jordon Adell, a prep OF from Kentucky who entered the year projected near the top of the draft but whose stock has fallen precipitously. I could see the Nats having him ranked high and (much like what happened with Lucas Giolito) them taking the chance if Adell is still available after being a top-5 rumored guy entering the 2017 season.

PerfectGame.org (Brian Sakowski) 2017 Mock Draft v1.0 dated 5/10/17: Greene, Wright, Lewis, McKay, Beck. Nats taking Hans Crouse, a prep RH starter from California. Crouse is good, but I can’t see the team taking a prep 1st rounder if the likes of Houck and Lange are on the board.

SI.com (Jay Jaffe) Mock Draft v2.0 dated 6/12/17: Wright, Greene, Gore, McKay, Lewis. Nats again on Romero. This mock leaves Pearson, Houck, and Carlson on the board, which I have a hard time believing would happen (that the Nats would take head case Romero over any of those three).

Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com (Benjamin Chase) Mock Draft Final dated 6/12/17: Greene, Wright, Gore, Lewis, Adell. Nats on Griffith Canning, UCLA’s friday starter who projects as a slight framed #3 starter. I saw him in the CWS regionals and wasn’t terribly impressed. Chase’s final mock is kind of out there; he’s the only guy who has Greene 1-1 and he has a ton of guys normally being projected to the Nats very early.

TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) Mock Draft v1.0 6/7/17: Wright, McKay, Greene, Lewis, Gore. Nats taking Sam Carlson, a prep RHP from Minnesota who is highly ranked on every board that I see, but has some risk being a skinny RHP from a cold-weather state whose entire profile is based on his showcase results. I’d guess the Nats would prefer a college arm.

I think the risk-averse Twins will go with a solid college arm at #1, picking Wright. This lets the rebuilding Reds at #2 take the guy who is probably the best player in the draft in Greene, who might just be the next Dwight Gooden. At #3 San Diego can afford to take a prep kid since they too are rebuilding, taking Lewis. At #4, Tampa takes the solid, fast moving McKay and internally debates whether to put him on the mound or in the field. At #5, Atlanta can’t help themselves (they love taking local guys) and takes the North Carolina prep product Gore, who might be the 2nd best player in this draft. Oakland passes on Bukauskas thanks to his two late season iffy outings and goes with the next best collegiate arm on their board.

My top 5: Wright, Greene, Lewis, McKay, Gore.

ACTUAL DRAFT Results (added after the draft): Lewis, Greene, Gore, McKay, Wright. Reportedly McKay wouldn’t take an under-slot deal at 1-1, so Minnesota popped Lewis instead, allowing McKay to go 4th to Tampa where he still probably sets a bonus record. Lewis going 1-1 shakes up the order of the top 5, but not the top 5 themselves.

Who are the Nats going to take at #25:

I like the projections for a solid college arm, so if Houck or Lange is there, look for that as the pick. I could be talked into Schmidt as another TJ reclamation project. If a highly regarded prep falls (Adell, Hall, Crouse, and especially Carlson) look for that as a longer-term play pick. Notice not one projector puts them on a bat, so the talk of MSU’s Brent Rooker seems unlikely here. I think they’re set on a polished college arm to quickly move up and start to fill holes that will soon be left when the likes of Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez hit free agency.

We’re essentially through the “Prospect Ranking Season” at this point. We’ve heard from all the major shops who rank systems and individual prospects (MLBpipeline.com/Jim Callis/Jonathan Mayo, ESPN/Keith Law, Baseball America/J.J. Cooper, John Manuel, Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs/Eric Longenhagen , Minorleagueball/John Sickels/Nick Melotte, Prospects Digest/Joseph Werner and TopProspectAlert.com/JP Schwartz). If you know of a reputable site that also does rankings not listed here, i’m all ears.

Click here for the updated Master List of Nationals Prospect Rankings for all the pre-2017 rankings. This worksheet is one of my longest running projects, with every Nats prospect ranking I could find dating from Nov 2004 to the present.

With the trade of Lucas Giolito we have a new #1 prospect on all the major lists: Victor Robles. Every minor-league wide ranking that I’ve found has Robles between #8 and #13 among all minor league players right now. Nearly every shop generally mentions either Erick Fedde or Juan Soto (or both) in the 50-70 range. Nobody has any mention of anyone else in the system right now, consistent with most opinions that the Nats system right now is a big top three, then a gap, then everyone else.

What is fascinating to me right now is the huge gap of opinion on some of our prospects. Its been a while since we’ve seen such a dichotomy of opinion on our players, and it may very well highlight the methodology differences between the talent evaluators out there. Lets discuss some of the more interesting cases:

Luis Garcia: ranked as high as #4 in the system (Fangraphs) to outside the top 20 (Sickels and Law). The 2016 IFA signing cost a ton ($1.3M) and has yet to appear in any pro league, which may be why some evaluators don’t even list him. Meanwhile Longenhagen is clearly bullish on the player and had him 4th, just after the system’s big three. That seems aggressive to me; I’d at least like to see him in organized ball before putting such a ceiling on him.

Sheldon Neuse: mostly in the #6-#7 range … except for Baseball America, who has him all the way down at #17. Clearly they thought his debut season was a disappointment. I’m not ready to give up on Neuse after the collegiate career he had, but for him to slash just .230/.305/.341 in Auburn was definitely shocking.

Jesus Luzardo; again Fangraphs was way higher on him (#9) than anyone else. In fact, Sickels didn’t even have him in the top 20. Clearly the fangraphs methodology is more about potential and less about realization.

Drew Ward: Sickels had him #10, Fangraphs outside the top 20. We may have a bit of prospect fatigue on Ward since we drafted him as a high schooler. But its worth noting that he posted a .868 OPS figure this year at high A as a 21-yr old (he didn’t turn 22 til after the season) and earned a promotion to AA. He also earned a NRI this spring, where he went 3-15 but did blast two homers. I think his power is coming around (11 homers in 64 Carolina league games, not exactly a hitter’s paradise league) and he could be a sneaky prospect going forward.

Kelvin Gutierrez: as with several others, we find Longenhagen far more bullish on Gutierrez (#11) versus others (16th at best, outside of Law’s top 20). Perhaps its trying to spit hairs once you get to a certain point in the system, this act of attempting to rank players who likely never get above AA. But it does show that Longenhagen’s methodology definitely rates a certain type of player higher than other pundits.

Yasiel Antuna: the Nats’ “other” big July 2 signing from last year, Antuna got a massive, franchise record $3.9M bonus despite being lower ranked than Garcia on most international prospect boards. Nonetheless, most of the pundits had Antuan in the 19-25 range … except for Werner at topprospectdigest… he put Antuna #5 in the system. Werner’s logic went like this: $3.9M is about what the 3rd overall pick in the Rule-4 draft went for, so therefore Antuna must be ranked on a par with an upper-end first round talent. I’m not sure I agree with that logic, and would rather put Antuna down in the mid-20s like others have him ranked until we see what he can do in organized ball.

Tyler Watson: again Baseball America hates this player as opposed to others. BA has him #27 while Law and Sickels had him in the 14-15 range. I like Watson a ton; he utterly dominated Short-A as a 19yr old, meaning he more than held his own against newly drafted higher-end incoming college juniors. Its weird; why rank two completely untested 16yr old Dominican prospects higher than a domestic lefty arm who is 6’5″, already throws 90 and clearly has projection in his frame?

Joan Baez: Another with some wild variation in rankings. Law has him #10 but BA has him #29. MLB gives him a 70 fastball and a 60 curve-ball, which means they think he could be an effective 2-pitch reliever in the majors, right now. Its weird; what’s the essential difference between Baez and Koda Glover right now?

Rhett Wisemann: completely disappeared from all rankings … with the exception of Sickels, who snuck him in at #20.

Telmito Agustin: another Werner one-off; he had Agustin ranked 9th in the system, where as both MLB and BA had him #28 and everyone else had him outside their top 20. Agustin’s season was decent for a 19-yr old in Low-A, but his best tool is his run tool and he nearly had as many CS (9) as he had SB (14) in his half-season at Hagerstown. And he played mostly LF in Hagerstown, though that may have been due to the presence of Robles there. I don’t see much more in Agustin than a Matt den Dekker type; is that the 9th best prospect in the system?

Nick Banks: his crummy junior year became a relatively weak Short-A debut; he slugged just .320 there. Still, Law ranked him 17th and still thinks the Nats got good value in Banks given his post-sophomore season buzz. Most others have abandoned him; MLB and BA put him at the back end of their top 30s and others ignored him.

And then there’s this list; these are players who formerly got at least some brief prospect mention in the past who are now off everyone’s top 20-30 list:

Andrew Lee: Was ranked in the 20th range last year on some lists. missed most of 2016 with an injury after a promising 2015 debut for the 11th rounder. I think he can bounce back and put his name back in the mix.

Austen Williams: Got some love in the 15-20th rage last year, none this year after his ERA ballooned to north of 5.00 and getting demoted mid-season. He’ll presumably be a 24-yr old repeating High-A a third time in 2017, so time is running out.

Jefry Rodriguez: peaked as high as #6 on some lists in the 2014 range, his stock has fallen precipitously. He had a 4.96 ERA in a full season of starting in Low-A in his age 23 season. Perhaps its time to move him to the pen to see if he can focus on his best pitches in shorter stints.

Spencer Kieboom: never was a major prospect but did get some rankings in the 15-20 range over the years. He’s still 4th on the C depth chart for the Nationals, but his DFA and passing through waivers to get off the 40-man roster is an indictment of where he really is right now.

Nick Lee; got some back-of the top-30 list recognition last year after getting put on the 40-man; now he’s off the 40-man and will miss significant time due to an elbow fracture in 2017. He’s now 26 and staring in the face of being a permanent “org guy” type arm.

Here also is a list of the 30 Minor League Organizations as ranked by various pundits. As you might expect, the system has been shredded with the graduation of Trea Turner (and in some cases Wilmer Difo) along with the trading of Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning.

Observations:

Amazingly, 4 of the 5 pundits tracked all ranked the Nats farm system exactly the same: #19. Only Law varied and only slightly, dropping the Nats to #22.

Everyone is unanimous in ranking Atlanta #1. Most everyone believes the Yankees now have the #2 ranking (Werner’s rankings are a bit suspect when compared to others).

The White Sox jumped from generally being in the mid 20s to being ranked in the 3-5 range by most pundits. Makes sense. Law has them all the way down at #10, which seems like an outlier.

BA is the outlier on Houston’s farm system, ranking them #3 while everyone else had them at 10-12.

Law loves the Mets; he ranked them 7th while everyone else had them at middle of the pack #15.

At the other end of the spectrum, there’s little disagreement among the pundits about who is at the bottom (either Arizona or Miami), nor with the last 4-5 teams in general. Nearly all the pundits panned Arizona, Miami, Baltimore, Kansas City and the Angels’ farm systems, with none of these teams being ranked higher than #22 on any list.

Its rather scary to see two of the wealthiest teams (the Dodgers and the Yankees) also possessing strong farm systems; it does not bode well for competitive balance in the near future. It is also scary to see a divisional rival like Atlanta so fully loaded; the Nats will struggle to compete if the Braves prospects matriculate properly, since it will likely coincide with our natural decline after the 2018 FA purge occurs.

Since we’ve been talking a lot about prospects, i thought i’d note that I’ve been catching up the Master Prospect rankings list (here’s the direct Google xls link) that I maintain. Major edits lately:

I’ve noted those who have lost Rookie status in 2016: Trea Turner and Wilmer Difo, even if Baseball America and MinorLeagueBall insist on ranking him. I’m not sure what to do with A.J Cole in this regard, nor Pedro Severino. Koda Glover still seems to be a “prospect” by everyone’ standards so he’s still ranked.

I’ve now put in a couple of the early rankings from major pundits that have come out post-2016: BA top 10, minor league ball top 30, MLBpipeline’s top 30 as of the end of the 2016 season, and JP Schwartz’ post-2016 list. We expect a ton more to hit in the Jan/Feb time-frame.

The Spreadsheet now has more than 100 “lists” from various sources dating to the beginning of the Nats franchise (Nov 2004 BA list, ahead of 2005 system).

Each off-season I generally expect to get 7-8 rankings lists from what I call the “major pundits” who follow prospects:

I’ve seen other pundits rankings in the past but not consistently year over year like the above seven lists. If you know of any pundits who i’m missing, please let me know.

This year we’ll start to see a new #1 prospect in Victor Robles, after seeing 47 straight lists with Giolito ranked #1. Robles becomes the 11th distinct player to be ranked #1 in our farm system at any point.

Carter Kieboom is the first pick of the Nats in 2016’s draft. Photo via PerfectGame

It was a strange first two days of the draft, with no consensus 1-1 overall, some very last minute moves, and some pretty surprising picks. For me, the best player in this draft (NJ prep LHP Jason Groome) fell all the way to 12th and the Phillies picked a kid 1-1 overall in Mickey Moniak who seems to have the ceiling of a weaker Steve Finley. We saw a consensus top-5 pick test positive for PEDs (Delvin Perez), and a sub-par CWS appearance cost A.J. Puk millions of dollars as he falls from everyone’s 1-1 prediction to #6 overall.

The Nats seemed to really depart from the draft strategy we’ve seen the Mike Rizzo-led front office follow in the past, where they normally focused on college arms with an occasional high-ceiling prep bat. Here’s a quick look at the top 10 draft picks with some thoughts.

Round

Overall

Name/Position

Position

Col/HS

School

Slot Value

1-S

28

Carter Kieboom

SS

HS

Clemson

2065900

1-S

29

Dane Dunning

RHP

Col Jr.

Florida

2034600

2

58

Sheldon Neuse

3B

Col Jr.

Oklahoma

1107000

3

94

Jesus Nuzardo

LHP

HS

Miami

635800

4

124

Nick Banks

OF (rf)

Col Jr.

TAMU

473300

5

154

Daniel Johnson

OF (CF)

Col Jr.

New Mexico State

354300

6

184

Tres Barrera

C

Col Jr.

Texas

265400

7

214

Jacob Noll

2B

Col Sr.

FGCU

198900

8

244

A.J. Bogucki

RHP

Col Jr.

UNC

177700

9

274

Joey Harris

C

Col Sr.

Gonzaga

166000

10

304

Paul Panaccione

SS

Col Sr.

Grand Canyon

156600

Pick by Pick: if they’re ranked on the four main rankings sites I like (Keith Law, MLBpipeline, BaseballAmerica, and BaseballDraftReport) I’ll note them as such. Links to these three master rankings are at the bottom of the post.

1s/28: Carter Kieboom, SS/3B from Georgia HS. Law #27, MLB #45, BA #44, BDR #14: Brother of our budding C prospect Spencer Kieboom, Carter is thought to be the best of three baseball playing brothers. Described consistently as a great hitter, one of the best prep hitters in the class, he currently plays SS but is projected to move to 3B. He’s an overdraft according to MLB and BA but right in line with Law’s rankings (Law tends to favor toolsy prep players over lower floor/lower ceiling college guys). My thoughts: very surprising first pick here; as we soon find out, the team is clearly focusing on bats this year and has no qualms about picking a guy who won’t feature for the MLB team for years. Update: he’s *already* signed!

1s/29: Dane Dunning, RHP starter/reliever from Florida. Law #25, MLB #59, BA #60, BDR unranked. Once again, Law has this player significantly higher than MLB or BA. For me its notable that when projected 1-1 pick A.J. Puk got hit around in the CWS regional, it was Dunning who came in and pitchd 3 2/3rds of 1-hit ball to win the game for Florida. It wouldn’t be the first time that a college coach mis-used a quality arm (see Illinois using Tyler Jay inexplicably as a closer most of last year). Dunning goes before even his team’s friday starter Logan Shore and surprised the heck out of me. Especially when you consider who was still on the board in terms of college arms (notably Anthony Kay and Dakota Hudson, both of whom went in the picks just after Dunning. I’m talking myself into Dunning though; he was on my very early list for upper 1st round talents anyway, and seems like he was a better pro prospect than guys pitching ahead of him in the Florida rotation. Florida is known as a great program for developing arms, and he comes to the Nats without a ton of use.

2nd/58: Sheldon Neuse, SS/3B Oklahoma. Law #60, MLB #50, BA #129, BDR #40. Interesting discrepancy of opinion on Neuse; MLB likes him a ton and thinks the Nats got good value. He’s a 3-time all-Big12 pick who likely moves to third in pro ball and also throws out of the Oklahoma bullpen (so there’s a reliever fall back; he’s clocked at 94). At the plate, he’s got a ton of power, profiles as a 3-true outcomes guy and drastically improved his walk rate this year. The scouting reports also think his big arm could profile in RF, and his size could look promising behind the plate. He sounds like a polished college hitter with some pop, not unlike last year’s 3rd rounder Rhett Wiseman.

3rd/94: Jesus Nuzardo, LHP from Florida HS. Law #42, MLB #77, BA #50, BDR #58. The Nats special; a Tommy John reclamation project. Nuzardo was projecting as a mid 1st rounder early this spring before blowing out the elbow; if he comes back to form, then the Nats just stole a 1st round talent in the 3rd round. You’d have to think that Nuzardo’s advisor will tell him that it makes more sense to join the Nats and their experienced TJ-rehab team than to head to Miami, but we’ll see what happens.

4th/124: Nick Banks, OF from Texas A&M. Law Unranked, MLB #101, BA #88, BDR #148. I love this pick; Banks led the US Collegiate national team in hitting just last summer, but his stats backed up after he had a minor surgical procedure. Skills don’t erode overnight, and Banks was thought to be a mid 1st round pick who slid precipitously. I think the Nats got an absolute steal here and Banks will be a stud for this team for years to come.

5th/154: Daniel Johnson, OF from New Mexico State. BA #222. Johnson was the WAC player of the year, hit for power and average. Barely rated and seems like he’ll sign for slot or less. Sounds like a nice little value pick.

6th/184: Tres Barrera, C from Texas. Law unranked, MLB #194, BA #284, BDR unraked. A Catcher who had the defensive flexibility to move around as the Texas team needed him. This is more than just a filler pick at this point; i’m guessing he signs for a bit less than slot and could feature later on.

7th/214: Jacob Noll, 2B from Florida Gulf Coast. BA #240, BDR #193: Nice slash line for a senior, even if it was in a weaker conference. 367/.427/.620 . Classic senior sign; 6th-10th round, middle infielder, likely a nominal bonus to save cash for later. Can’t argue with the pick.

8th/244: A.J. Bogucki: RHP reliever from UNC. BA #263, BDR #388. Nice stats for a guy at this point: 9.48 K/9 – 4.47 BB/9 – 50.1 IP – 2.86 ERA. Good MPH on his fastball, looks a little wild though. I wonder if he signs. Still has a year of eligibility and he’s in that area where they’re looking for bonus savings.

2 more in Johnson and Barrera who could be targeted for under-slot deals

Regional breakdown: 5 from SouthEast (Georgia, Florida, North Carolina), 5 from the South West (Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona), and one from the upper NW (Washington).

Conclusion: I like the first four picks, a lot. Keith Lawliked the Nats first couple of days too. I like the focus on hitters after years of focus on arms. I like the underrated pick up of Dunning over other “big name” guys who may be overrated. I love the Banks pick; think its a steal not unlike the situation where Rendon fell to the Nats because of a short-term injury concern. I know practically nothing of anyone after Banks.

MLB’s Awesome 2016 Draft Tracker; you can slice and dice the draft 10 different ways, search by schools and home states, etc.

OfficialMLB 2016 Draft Order. Per my “evolving draft order” xls online, The Nats forfeited what would have been the #16 pick and now their first two picks are #28 and #29. After that, they pick 58th, 94th, 124th and then +30 picks there after per round.

The MLB rule-4 (Amateur) draft starts tonight, 6/9/16 at 7pm. The MLB Network will have full coverage of the first round of picks. This post is my dumping ground of draft coverage for 2016.

This post uses last year’s format, with links to use to see draft prospect rankings, links to help cover the draft (which I personally come back to time and time again), some blurbs on local players of interest, and then links to a bunch of mock drafts.

Draft Coverage so far at NAR for 2016:

Here’s the big post on all marquee DC/MD/VA prep players ahead of the 2016 season (only guys who are “significant” draft prospects are mentioned here).

MLB’s Awesome 2016 Draft Tracker; you can slice and dice the draft 10 different ways, search by schools and home states, etc.

OfficialMLB 2016 Draft Order. Per my “evolving draft order” xls online, The Nats forfeited what would have been the #16 pick and now their first two picks are #28 and #29. After that, they pick 58th, 94th, 124th and then +30 picks there after per round.

Here’s a slew of Draft Prospect rankings : these are NOT the same as mock drafts; see further down for those. You’re going to see the same locally tied names on nearly all of these lists; they’re all individually profiled further below.

D1baseball HS top 100 players with commitments for 2016 (most of it behind a pay-wall). UVA stands to lose three significant recruits being ranked in their top 100 right now.

Now, some news about CollegePlayers with local ties who are serious draft candidates (meaning first couple of rounds projected or present on top 100 draft ranking lists). Note that I’ve got a far, far larger list of local players that I’ll follow-up on after the draft; these are just the significant/top 10 round types.

Connor Jones, UVA RHP via Great Bridge; at this point perhaps the 2nd or 3rd best college pitching prospect thanks to fall-offs from a number of other candidates. Probably a mid-1st rounder, though some pundits (Keith Law) have him rated far lower.

Buddy Reed, OF from Florida via Finksburg, MD (NW of Baltimore). Probably a late first rounder or sandwich pick, perhaps lower.

Matt Thaiss, UVA C who has shot up the rankings; now projected as early 2nd rounder. Keith Law likes him as a late 1st rounder.

Mike Shawaryn: RHP for Maryland; stock has really fallen this season; now perhaps just a 4th rounder. A late season push improved his draft status somewhat.

Andrew Knizner, C from NC State by way of Glen Allen, VA: gritty ballplayer who has played his way into perhaps 5th round discussions.

Errol Robinson, SS from Ole Miss by way of Maryland; struggled badly this season, dropping his stock from early 2nd round projections; no idea where he’s project to go now.

Local Prep players of note who are serious draft candidates:

Joe Rizzo, INF for Oakton HS. Remains the highest ranked local draft prospect, projecting as anywhere between a mid-1st rounder and an early 2nd rounder. South Carolina commit. MLBpipeline.com’s write-up profiles his draft prospects the best.

Khalil Lee LHP/OF for Flint Hill. Some have him 2nd-3rd round, others have him projected 4th-5th. Part of the confusion is where to play him; he was an undersized speedy CF candidate… then suddenly flashed low 90s off the mound as a lefty starter this year. Liberty commit.

Garrett Stallings, RHP from Grassfield HS. Not generally listed but may be rising, Tennessee commit.

Re-draft players of interest to Nats fans: these are re-drafts that have come back up. See the Draft Tracker for underclassmen draftees from last year and/or Prep draftees from 2013 who are now draft eligible again.

Garrett Hampson, SS from Long Beach State. Nats 2013 26th round pick, now projecting as a 5th or 6th rounder.

Every year I say i’ll stay away from the Mock Draft links … and every year I come back. Here’s a running collection. DCProSports.com has a master list of Mock drafts at this link that has many more than I’ve got listed below.

Todd Boss’ Mock draft? Based on my vast level of expertise (sarcasm) and the thousands of man hours i’ve put in scouting players in person and cultivating industry sources (also sarcasm), and instead reading the tea leaves of the gazillion other mock drafts, I’ll take this as my initial guess for the top 5: Puk, Lewis, Groome, Pint, Moniak

The only thing that gives me pause is this: Puk *stunk* in the regional. 4 and a third, 5 hits and 5 runs given up to UConn. Sorry; if you’re going to go 1-1 you need to do an outing like 7ip, 4hits, 10ks, 0 walks in your swan song. I wonder if that was enough to have Philly move to a different pick. And Perez just got popped for failing a drug test, instantly removing him from top-5 consideration. So, given Puk’s stinker most of the last minute mocks have Philly off of Puk and doing Moniak as an under-slot deal. And I can’t disagree. So my final mock will be: Moniak, Puk, Lewis, Pint, Ray

And this top 5 means that Groome and Pint (who I think are the two best talents in this draft) fall to teams outside the top 5 and they’re going to be absolutely ecstatic.

No frigging idea. Lots of these Mock drafts attempt to guess, to put some names with the Nats down that far. But consider the 2011 draft. Everyone had Anthony Rendon going 1-1. Suddenly he slips and the Nats grab him at #6 in a total gift. The point is this: we have no idea how even the top 5 picks will go, so predicting what’s going to happen at pick #6 is folly, let alone #28. Nats will take BPA, probably will mix up a safer pick (aka college arm) with a riskier pick (aka a high school bat) and go back to back $2M bonus slots. I also like the running theory that the nats will get the Scott Boras special and “package” two Boras clients together at 28/29 and basically split the bonus pools. Names often mentioned here include Kyle Funkhauser and the prep pitcher/basketball player Matt Manning. One would be an over draft, one would be a steal if he gets here. We’ll see.

Now that we’re into the 2015 season, we are officially through the “prospect ranking” season. I have updated two important prospect tracking spreadsheets that I maintain with a host of links and updated information.

First; the Organizational Rankings Spreadsheet. I’ve got 59 different rankings now collected of the 30 teams’ organizational rankings over the years. The big “holes” I have in this spreadsheet are the Baseball America handbooks sent out each January … though it seems to be safe to say that the official released Baseball America rankings in March or April of each year effectively mimics the rankings in the publication. The rankings go back to 2001, with a link to even earlier Baseball America rankings. Only BA goes back that far; other experts go back to 2007 (Baseball Prospectus), 2009 (Keith Law/ESPN) and 2012 (MinorLeagueBall.com).

Secondly, a republishing of the Nats Prospect Ranks going back in time. I’ve greatly updated this spreadsheet from the earlier publishing of it this off-season, now having 79 separate rankings of Nats prospects going back all the way to January 2005. 178 different Nationals Prospects appear on the list, spanning from current #1 Lucas Giolito to the first #1 listed (believe it or not, Mike Hinckley in BA’s January 2005 list).

As always, if you can think of pundits who i’m missing, i’m always up for more information. Or if i’m missing links, let me know. Both these links are also available directly from the “Links” section on the right hand side of this blog in the “Nats Arm Race Creations” section.

The 11/20/14 deadline for adding players to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule-5 draft has come and gone. Jonathan Mayo at mlb.com posted an excellent overview of each team’s top 20 prospects under consideration for protection, which could also be a nice shopping list for some team looking to roll the dice.

Our Nats went and protected many more players than I thought hey would. So maybe there’s not much room for us to argue about who should and shouldn’t have been protected.

And here’s notables who we did not protect: Matt Skole and maybe Drew Vettleson.

My reaction? Slightly surprised they went with four players. No arguments about the value of Difo, just wondering if he realistically could have stuck on a 25-man roster spot all year. No arguments about the players they dumped to make room (Pedro Florimon and Ryan Mattheus); most of us questioned why they were even still on the roster given the lack of options and slim chances of making the Nats 25-man roster next spring. Slightly surprised they decided to risk losing Skole, if only because of his proven capabilities. Otherwise, for prospect hounds, this was a good day.

(Which, just to head off hindsight is 20/20 arguments, did result in a comp pick that turned into Drew Storen … but Storen was a huge overdraft at the 10th overall pick in 2009, a college reliever who was a quick sign. The Nats left a lot on the table in the Crow non-signing, as discussed in this space recently).

Right now, as of the morning of the 2014 Rule 4 signing deadline day, there exists just a small handful of players from the first 10 rounds of the draft who have not signed. According to MLB.com’s great draft bonus tracker, just NINE players out of the first 315 players drafted remain unsigned as of the moment of this posting.

Three of them are Washington Nationals draft picks. And they include the two most important picks of the draft; i.e. our first two picks Erick Fedde and Andrew Suarez.

What is going on?? We havn’t seen these kinds of difficulties in signing guys since before the slot bonus system went into place. What is Mike Rizzo doing?

According to reports (this Bill Ladson report quoting Jim Callis and Adam Kilgore), Fedde got a “$3M offer” from another team he he dropped to them in the 2nd round and (with notoriously difficult negotiator agent Scott Boras in charge) is holding out for more than the assigned slot bonus to his pick ($2,145,600). The Nats can go a bit above the $2.1M figure without incurring penalties … but it depends on what happens with their other two marquee picks. Media pundits (unnamed of course) are predicting a stalemate here.

Meanwhile, the general sense from reading the tea leaves is that Suarez will sign at or near slot (which makes you wonder what the heck is taking so long?), while unsigned 8th rounder Austin Byler seems to be unsignable at his slot figure ($145k) and will be returning to school. Byler’s non-signing isn’t too much of a surprise; he was a 3rd round projected guy who slipped to the 8th round, and the Nats didn’t really free up that much cash in its other first-10-rounds of picks in order to get Byler the $600k it likely would have needed to sign him.

Aside: speaking of lack of signing bonus money for Byler; is overpaying its college senior signs? They drafted four college seniors in the first 10 rounds (Carey, Gardner, Van Orden and Page) and gave them combined more than $200k. Could that 200k have been better allocated? Did those seniors need to be offered that much money?

It makes zero sense to me for Fedde not to sign frankly, even if he’s offered less money; by the time he rehabs his TJ surgery, it’ll be nearly the end of next year’s college season. There’s just little chance of him going higher than he did this year, nor getting as much bonus money offered. And if he has the slightest setback in his recovery, he’ll be lucky to be drafted in the first 5 rounds next year and will be looking at a tenth of the signing bonus offers. And, if he doesn’t sign, he’s rehabbing under the care of his personal physician instead of an experienced professional major league team that has rehabbed probably a dozen TJ surgeries in the last few years, including some pretty significant and nationally renound names. Why this is taking so long is just beyond me.

If the Nats fail to sign all three guys, they’ll have compensation picks in the form of the 19th overall pick in the 2015 draft for Fedde and the 58th pick for Suarez (if i’m reading the rules correctly that is; you’re supposed to get compensation for unsigned first, second and any supplemental round picks at your unsigned slot +1 in the following draft, irrespective of how many comp picks get stuffed inbetween rounds the next year). I guess that’d make 2015’s draft pretty good. But they’ll lose the Byler pick altogether.

I’ll list these players with local ties in the order they were drafted, which it should be noted, turned out to be vastly different from their pre-draft ranking order. Like with other posts, I’ll put in rankings for the player from four reputable ranking sources pre-draft for prospects: Keith Law, Baseball America, MLB.com and MinorLeagueBall (though, as we’ll see by the rankings below, I’m not sure I think MinorLeagueBall’s rankings are worthy; they’re *way* off on some players who went in the upper rounds). After the 10th round, we’ll just focus on “name players” or high schoolers who got previous mention; lets be honest, the odds of a high school star being bought out of his college commitment drastically drops after just the first few rounds.

The MLB Draft Tracker is the best tool out there for finding info on players and is used heavily here.

1st Round/#19 overall by Cincinnati: Nick Howard, UVA rhp reliever (Law #63/BA #25/MLB #31/MinorLeagueBall #40). Jim Callis reports that Howard’s stock was rising fast ahead of the draft, and MlbDraftInsider predicted an early 2nd round pick for Howard. Shocking everyone, he went right after the Nats picked at #19 in the first round. A surprise pick; he was projected to be just the third UVA player selected and perhaps a 2nd rounder. He was a Sunday starter for UVA but moved to the bullpen in 2014 and showed a significant strike-out tool (he had a 15.88 K/9 rate on the year, albeit in just 28 innings closing games for UVA). I wonder if Cincinnati is thinking they can move him back to a starting role, because drafting a reliever this high is (in some pundit’s minds) a waste of a first round pick. Signed for $1.995M, $100k under slot.

Supp-1st Round/#37 overall by Houston: Derek Fisher, UVA OF (#15/#31/#26/#31). Keith Law video breakdown. Law predicted back of first round despite his ranking him as the 15th best prospect. Scout.com predicted the same. MlbDraftInsider predicted mid-first round. They were all wrong; Fisher lasted until the mid supplemental 1st round, and odds are that Houston got a steal of a player here. Fisher’s production was hampered by a broken hamate bone this season, causing him to miss time and lose power, so this pick was projecting his excellent sophomore season. I think Houston will find a quick-to-the-majors corner outfielder who can slot nicely into a #2 or #6 slot. Signed for $1.534M, exactly slot.

Supp-1st Round/#38 overallby Cleveland: Mike Papi, UVA 1B/OF (#43/#43/#45/#81. Keith Law video breakdown. Law predicted mid 2nd round. MlbDraftInsider predicted early 2nd round. But Papi’s strong finish clearly jumped him on Cleveland’s board, who nabbed him in the supplemental first round. He profiles as a professional hitter, lots of line drives, lots of walks (I think of Nick Johnson). Signed for $1.25M, about $250k under slot.

2nd Round/#45 overallby Chicago Cubs: Jake Stinnett, SR RHP from U of Maryland (#51/#67/#72/#213??). Stinnett clearly made himself a ton of money with his showings at the ACC tournament (8ip, 3 ER and 10ks versus UVA) and the CWS regional (8ip, 3runs against ODU). He is the first college senior off the board, to a team (the Cubs) that is trying to rebuild itself, so one may wonder if this is a pre-negotiated/below-slot deal with a guy who won’t have a ton of leverage so that the Cubs can throw extra cash later on. Either way, Stinnett was likely to go in the 2nd round regardless, so the Cubs don’t do much of an over-draft here. Signed for exactly $1M, about $250k under slot.

3rd round/#78 overallby Chicago Cubs: Mark Zagunas, C from Virginia Tech ((Law out of top 100/#111/#149/#106). Zagunas profiles as a Jason Kendall like catcher; good defense, contact hitter who doesn’t strike out a ton. But Law thinks he projects as a backup catcher and thinks this is a bit of an over-draft. No matter; Zagunas became one of the first players to sign when he took an under-slot deal over the weekend. Signed for 615K, about $100k underslot.

3rd round/#83 overallby Toronto:Nick Wells is a LHP from Battlefield HS in Gainesville (Law out of top 100/#119/Out of MLB’s top 200/#343) who has a College of Charleston commit and who sits low-90s on the gun. He’s popped up from being just a good HS pitcher to being a potential 3rd-4th rounder. Slot is $661k. Might be signable; that’s a lot of money. Battlefield lost in the 6-A north regional quarters to McLean; i’m not sure which game Wells pitched (perhaps their first round game, a 4-0 win). UPdate: named to Baseball America’s 2nd team All-American team for 2014. Signed for $661k, exactly slot.

4th Round/#111 overallby Seattle: Ryan Yarbrough, a senior LHP from ODU (na/#407/na/na) who I hadn’t seen on any pre-draft rankings. I was surprised to find him at least on BA’s list. He was a weekend starter (some Friday, some Saturday) for ODU this year but struggled to a 6-7, 4.50 ERA on the season. In the CWS regional he pitched in relief in the first of their two-and-out losses to Maryland. No offense to Yarbrough, but a 4th round senior draftee (slot value $471k) who likely is an org-arm more befitting of a mid-20s round pick looks like a complete money-saving move by Seattle to free up cash for other picks. Signed for just $40k, more than $430k under slot. Seattle went WAY over-slot with its 1st rounder and supp-2nd rounder and needed to make up for it with a ton of under-slot guys.

4th Round/#116 overallby Milwaukee: Troy Stokes from Calvert Hall College in Baltimore (na/#316/na/#260). He profiles as an undersized lead-off/CF and is committed to Maryland. I can see him signing for slot frankly based on this draft position. Maryland loses a recruit that could have really helped them. Signed for $400k, about $50k underslot.

4th Round/#127 overallby Tampa Bay: Blake Bivens is an RHP from George Washington HS (aka GW-Danville near the NC border) (na/#124/na/#140). He’s committed to Liberty but has been consistently 90-93 on the gun with reports of good secondary stuff. Projected as possible 3rd-4th rounder and indeed that’s where he went. GW-Danville is a 4-A school that got upset in their conference semis, hence his absence from the prep radar. His slot value is $404k; is that enough to get him out of going to Liberty? I would think so, even given Liberty’s run to the CWS this year we’re not talking about a big-time program (though, that being said, I don’t know jack about Bivens personally, and he might be quite religious, which would explain his commitment to small-school liberty despite his talents). Named to Baseball America’s 3rd team all-american. Signed for $462k, about $60k above slot.

7th Round/#213 overallby Kansas City: Brandon Downes, CF from UVA. I’d accuse this of being a money-saving senior sign draft pick, but Downes is a junior. Slot is $176k; if he gets slot he may sign. That’s a lot of money. Signed for $150k, about $25k under slot. Not bad for a senior sign.

7th Round/#222 overallby Oakland: Brandon Cogswell, ss/2b from UVA (na/228/na/268). MLB’s profile projects him as either a 2nd baseman or a utility guy professionally. I wonder if he’ll sign; slot figure is $164k and he’s a college junior. Maybe this is a peak for him. Signed for $200k, about $35k over slot.

8th/#226 by Houston: Bobby Boyd, an undersized junior CF from West Virginia U (not ranked on any list) but who hails from Silver Spring and who went to St. Johns. Completely unnoticed by any pre-draft ranking team; is this a punt of a draft pick? .356 average (good) but just a .389 OBP (bad … just 10 walks all year). Signed for $140k, about $20k under slot.

8th/#250 by Detroit: Artie Lewicki, UVA’s mid-week/4th starter who got a ton of work in the ACC and regional tournaments. A nice senior draftee for Detroit. Signed for $60k, about $90k underslot.

10th and 14th rounds: the only two JMU players were taken; Ty McFarland and Chris Huffman. McFarland is a senior third baseman and son of the longtime JMU coach Spanky McFarland while Huffman is a junior RH who may opt to return in hopes of a bigger bonus next year.

15th/#454 by Washington: Ryan Ripken, 1B from Indian River CC but more famous for being the son of Cal Ripken, Jr. You can’t help but make mention of this pick, not only because it was the Nats, but because of who it is. I can’t find much of any scouting reports on the guy. MLB.com has a story with some more data.

17th/#540 by Washington: Alec Keller, a senior CF out of Princeton but who went to Douglas Freeman in Richmond. I had never heard of Keller, but then again I didn’t really start following prep baseball closely until recently. Of interest; perfectgame lists him at 5’6″, 110lb but mlb.com lists him at 6’2″, 200lbs. That’s one heck of a college growth spurt :-). I hope Keller gets some playing time in Viera and earns another summer of pro ball.

20th/#600 by Arizona: Jacob Bukauskus, RHP from Stone Bridge HS in Ashburn. Keith Law video breakdown. The local area’s top ranked prospect, projected as a mid-to-late first round pick, goes 600th overall. Bukauskas had informed all interested teams that he’s honoring his commitment to UNC. the thought was that a team might draft him early 2nd round and offer him a huge-overslot deal (as Law thought would happen, with a potential $2M bonus). Alas it did not, and this 20th round pick seems like a waste of a pick frankly. In late May he was named the Gatorade State player of the year. Baseball America 1st team All-American for 2014. Stats for the season: 7-0, 0.00 ERA. Word came out during the regional tournament that Bukauskas was being shut-down due to shoulder tendinitis; this likely was the reason he didn’t get drafted earlier. It looks like he’s getting his wish and going to school. UNC must be ecstatic.

20th/#614 by Boston: Devon Fisher is a catcher from 6-A south champions and state favorite Western Branch HS (Portsmouth). UVA commit. Projects as a 4th rounder, not picked til the 20th. Another likely victim of the new draft rules; in years past a saavy team like Boston would just throw $1M at him in the 20th and he’d sign. Instead UVA likely gets a big-time player coming to school. Update: Fisher signed with Boston instead of going to UVA.

21st/#634 by Washington: Connor Bach, SR LHP from VMI. I had no recollection of him previously, but NatsGM Ryan Sullivan reports that he played in the Cal Ripken league and left an impression.

22nd/#675 by St. Louis: Derek Casey is an RHP from Hanover HS (Mechanicsville) with a UVA commit. 93-94 on the gun. Projects as possible 3rd rounder. Casey led Hanover to the 2013 AAA Virginia state title and Hanover is the favorite to win the 4-A title this year. Another great sign for UVA; Casey likely is going to school.

32nd/#958 by San Francisco: Hunter Williams is a two-way lefty player from Cosby HS in Chesterfield, VA who has skills both on the mound at at the plate. He’s limited to first base in the field, which may make it tougher for him to get drafted and developed. 91 on the gun. UNC commit, it should be interesting to see which way he focuses. Projects as a 4th-5th rounder.

35th/#1050by Arizona: Justin Morris is a C from DeMatha HS who plays for the 2013 PerfectGame national champions EvoShield Canes traveling team (east-coast based travel team with a ton of big-time names matriculating these days). He’s a Maryland commit but didn’t improve his draft stock much throughout the year. He was #295 on minorleagueball’s pre-season list but doesn’t get picked until garbage time in the draft. Pre-season PG all-Atlantic 1st team.

35th/#1054 by Washington: Flint Hill’s Tommy Doyle, a UVA commit who I didn’t think was a draft prospect, but who the Nats picked up in the 35th round likely to curry favor to a local interest.

40th/#1096 by Milwaukee, Taylor Lane, a shortstop from Chesapeake but attending HS in Florida at the IMG academy. Florida commit.

Local Names of note not drafted at all:

Charlie Cody is a 3B from the same Great Bridge HS in Chesapeake that just graduated Connor Jones. He’s committed to UVA. His stock seems to have dropped this spring and he’s joining Jones at UVA; he did not get picked at all.

Brodie Leftridge is an OF from Highland MD who played for St. Johns in DC with a Tennessee commit.

Zach Clinton is a RHP from Forest, VA, plays for Liberty Christian HS (the Virginia state private schools champ) and is committed to Liberty. On 5/27/14 he was named the co-state player of the year for private schools (along with Tommy Doyle). No love from MLB teams though; he went undrafted and looks like he’s heading to his home town college.

Pavin Smith is a big lefty 1B/OF two-way player from Florida who will attend UVA after not signing. It seems like he could slot right into the departing Mike Papi/Derek Fisher lineup holes.

Bennett Sousa is a LHP from Florida who now will attend UVA. 93mph, seems like he will slot into their rotation in a year’s time.

Summary: UVA has a ton of players drafted (no less than 8, and 7 of them likely are signing). But they have a ton of commits from major names who didn’t get drafted and/or who got drafted so late that they stand little chance of signing. Devon Fisher, Derek Casey, Tommy Doyle and Charlie Cody are all UVA commits likely going to school. UNC also makes out like a bandit, getting both Bukauskas and Williams to school. And Maryland looks like it will get at least two very decent players coming to school in Morris and Harding.

Some useful draft links for you:

Here’s the first round draft order for the 2014 draft. Nats pick #18th.

Detailed first round order (and why teams gained or lossed picks) from Bill Chuck on GammonsDaily.com.