On an individual player level, the most satisfying part of the 2018 season to me was Dellin Betances going back to being Dellin freaking Betances. Betances was a deserving All-Star in 2017. It’s so easy to forget that. But his control deteriorated so much down the stretch that he was unusable late in the season and into the postseason. It was ugly.

This past season Betances corrected his mechanical flaws and got back to being one of the most dominant relievers in the game. One of the most dominant relievers of his generation, really. He’s right up there with Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen. Betances was great all season and, in the biggest moments in October, he was the guy Aaron Boone wanted on the mound.

?

Quite a turnaround from last season. Betances is on the short list of my all-time favorite Yankees and watching him rebound from that miserable finish last year to again be dominant this year felt awfully good. I’m happy for Betances personally and I’m happy for the Yankees too, because Good Dellin is about as impactful as a reliever can get. I hope he finishes his career in pinstripes and throws the pitch that clinches the team’s 28th World Series title.

Next season is Betances’ final season of team control (MLBTR projects a $6.4M salary) and, as seems customary with the Yankees, the two sides have not discussed a multi-year contract extension. The Yankees have been very stingy with extensions over the years. It’s not surprising they’ve yet to talk about a long-term deal with Dellin even at this point, with free agency a year away.

“One more year and he is a free agent. He has one more year of control and you can talk about one year or talk about multi-years. Nothing has transpired,” Brian Cashman said to George King earlier this week. “Dellin is a great Yankee and has done a tremendous job in all aspects. We haven’t had any discussions (about an extension)”

Betances gave the default “I’m focusing on next year” answer when asked about an extension — “I let (my agent) handle everything. I have to get ready for the upcoming season and help the team to win,” he said to King — but I assume he’d be open to the possibility. Everyone likes money, and if the Yankees want to give Dellin lots of money, I’m certain he’d at least hear them out.

While there’s always a number that makes sense, at this point, with free agency a year away, the best course of action for the Yankees may be to wait a year rather than sign Betances now. I mean, if he’s willing to take a sweetheart deal, they should jump all over it. But, historically, players who sign extensions one year before free agency get free agent dollars. There’s no discount. And here are last year’s notable free agent deals:

Wade Davis: Three years, $52M ($17.3M annually)

Brandon Morrow: Two years, $21M ($10.5M annually)

Bryan Shaw & Jake McGee: Three years, $27M ($9M annually)

That’s where the relief market is nowadays. Established closers are getting $17M per season. High-end reclamation project types are getting more than $10M annually. Good middle relievers and setup guys are at $9M a year. To me, Betances fits in somewhere between Morrow and Davis. As good as Morrow was in 2017, he was nearly out of baseball from 2013-16. Betances struggled late in 2017, for sure, but he was never as far down as Morrow.

The biggest reason to hold off on an extension with Betances is not necessarily the price. It’s the volatility. I love the guy. Like I said, Betances is an all-time favorite. But he is unpredictable and his 2017 control issues weren’t entirely out of character. He’s had control problems in the past — extreme control problems at that — and chances are he’ll have control problems again in the future. That’s just who he is. The control issues come and go.

And, with his 31st birthday a few weeks away, Betances is closing in on his inevitable decline years, and Dellin is a dude who needs his Grade-A stuff to succeed. He doesn’t outsmart hitters and paint the corners. He out-stuffs hitters. Any loss of stuff could take a significant bite out of his effectiveness. Waiting a year for an extension buys the Yankees more time to evaluate a very volatile reliever. How’s the stuff look now that he’s in his 30s? Is the control holding up? So on and so forth.

Again, there’s always a point where an extension makes sense now. If Betances and his representatives go to the Yankees today and say they’ll take the Shaw/McGee contract because he wants peace of mind, great, do it. But, if he’s holding out for something between Morrow and Davis money, say three years at $13M a season, then it might be worth playing out 2019 and reevaluating next year. Dellin’s the man and I hope he stays a Yankee forever. I also don’t blame the Yankees one bit for not wanting to rush into a long-term marriage.

The 2018 season ended far earlier than we all would’ve liked. Now that the season is over, it’s time for our annual season review series, which continues today with Dellin Betances. Aside from post a day Monday through Friday, there is no set schedule for these posts. We’ll write about players when we feel like writing about them, so each day’s review post will be a surprise (even to us!).

(Omar Rawlings/Getty)

Had many folks gotten their way last offseason, Dellin Betances would not have been a Yankee in 2018. He collapsed so spectacularly down the stretch in 2017 that he seemed almost unsalvageable. We’ve seen Betances go through ups and downs for years now, often extreme ups and downs. What he went through last season was the lowest point of his big league career.

Things went so poorly for Betances down the stretch late last season — at one point Dellin walked ten batters in 9.2 innings, and he would’ve walked more had Joe Girardi not had a quick hook — that he was basically unusable in the postseason, which meant a larger workload for David Robertson and Chad Green in October. Would the Yankees trade Betances? Non-tender him? Many were ready to cut ties with Dellin.

Fortunately, the Yankees aren’t the kind to give up on high-end talent, so they stuck with Betances and were rewarded with a spectacular 2018 season, one in which he was their best reliever and again a dominant bullpen force. Dellin went from persona non grata in the 2017 postseason to Aaron Boone’s top weapon in the 2018 postseason. Quite a difference a year makes, eh?

In 66.2 innings this past season Betances posted a 2.70 ERA (2.47 FIP) with an excellent strikeout rate (42.3%) and an acceptable walk rate (9.6%). That is the highest strikeout rate of Dellin’s career — only Josh Hader (46.7%) and Edwin Diaz (44.3%) had a higher strikeout among the 89 relievers to throw at least 60 innings this year — and a walk rate that is far below his 2017 number (16.9%) and career average (11.0%). He was awesome.

This season Betances became the first reliever in history with five straight 100-strikeout seasons — Betances and Hall of Famers Goose Gossage and Rollie Fingers are the only relievers with five 100-strikeout seasons in their career — and he jumped into 15th place on the franchise’s all-time appearance list (357). He could move into the top ten next season. Let’s review Dellin’s season.

A Summer of Dominance

From May 19th through September 22nd, a span of 44 appearances, Betances pitched to a 1.74 ERA (2.00 FIP) with 81 strikeouts in 46.2 innings. The numbers are comical: 46.2 IP, 23 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 17 BB, 76 K. Opponents hit .158/.266/.253 against him. Only nine times in those 44 appearances did Betances allow multiple baserunners and only five times did he allow an earned run.

Those dates are not necessarily cherry-picked. May 19th is the day Betances started his American League record 44-appearance streak with a strikeout and September 22nd is the final appearance in that stretch. Here are the longest reliever strikeout streaks in baseball history:

Aroldis Chapman, 2013-14 Reds: 49 games

Corey Knebel, 2016-17 Brewers: 46 games

Dellin Betances, 2018 Yankees: 44 games

Bruce Sutter, 1979 Cubs: 39 games

Josh Hader, 2017-18 Brewers and Eric Gagne, 2003-04 Dodgers: 35 games

Betances set both the American League record and the MLB single-season record this year. His record streak came to an unceremonious end on September 24th, in his second-to-last appearance of the season. He didn’t get hit around or anything. Betances faced three batters and got three quick ground ball outs on eight pitches. The strikeout streak is over. Long live the strikeout streak.

“Honestly, I’m not a guy that puts much attention into stretches or stats, but this is probably the best I’ve felt in a long time,” Betances said in August. “I’ve been feeling good all year. Even when I was going through some stuff early on, I felt like it was just a matter of results changing and maybe paying attention a little bit more to detail and what I need to do to make sure I wasn’t giving up as many runs as I was earlier. I just feel like I’ve been good with my delivery, repeating my delivery and using both my pitches equally, so I think that’s helped me.”

Dellin was not selected for the All-Star Game this season, ending his run of four straight All-Star selections. Betances, Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer were the only pitchers selected to every All-Star Game from 2014-17. Betances could’ve been an All-Star this year though. Even after his early season hiccup, he had great numbers, but pitching spots were hard to come by because the Twins (Jose Berrios), Blue Jays (J.A. Happ), and Tigers (Joe Jimenez) all needed a token All-Star. Oh well. Dellin did not get selected but was still worthy.

The Highest Leverage Situations

Regular season Leverage Index tells us Betances was not among the league leaders in high-leverage appearances. He didn’t even lead the Yankees in such appearances. One-hundred-and-forty-seven relievers threw at least 50 innings this past season. Here are Dellin’s Leverage Index numbers:

Average LI: 1.43 (46th in MLB)

Average LI when entering game: 1.34 (65th in MLB)

Appearances with 1.5 LI or higher: 24 (60th in MLB)

For the Yankees, Betances was second to Chapman (1.90) in average Leverage Index and third behind Chapman (1.56) and David Robertson (1.41) in average Leverage Index when entering the game. His 24 appearances with a 1.5 Leverage Index — anything at 1.5 or above qualifies as high leverage — were third on the Yankees behind Robertson (27) and Chapman (25).

Betances settled in as the Eighth Inning Guy™ early in the season and that meant he didn’t always pitch in the highest leverage situation. Sometimes he’d pitch with a two or three run lead after Robertson or Chad Green entered with a one-run lead an inning earlier. Betances did, however, get some of the biggest outs in the postseason. He was Boone’s middle of the order specialist and that mean crucial outs in the middle innings.

Championship Probability Added is essentially Win Probability Added on steroids. It tells you how much closer an individual play brings you to a World Series title rather than how much closer it brings you a single win. Here are the five biggest outs of the 2018 Yankees season by CPA:

Severino striking out Semien with the bases loaded to preserve the two-run lead is, pretty clearly, the biggest out of the season. That passes the eye test and the CPA test, I think. Three of the next four biggest outs of the season came in the next inning, with Betances on the mound. He inherited runners on first and second with no outs from Severino, and the A’s had their 2-3-4 hitters up. Dellin sat them down in order. He then tossed a 1-2-3 sixth inning as well.

?

“I’ve been waiting for that moment since last year,” said Betances following the Wild Card Game. “Obviously, last year I didn’t finish the season the way I wanted to. So for me to be able to go out there and do that, it’s a dream come true.”

Several pitchers still playing in the postseason have since passed Betances on the 2018 leaderboard, but, after ALDS Game Four, he was top five among all pitchers in CPA. He’s still top ten. Betances led Yankees pitchers in CPA this season and rather easily as well. Here’s the leaderboard:

Aaron Judge: +0.056 CPA

Dellin Betances: +0.050 CPA

Masahiro Tanaka: +0.024 CPA

Aroldis Chapman: +0.022 CPA

Neil Walker: +0.018 CPA

Neil Walker? Neil Walker! Anyway, this is all a very long way of saying Betances got some incredibly important outs this season. He was the team’s best reliever this summer and, in the postseason, Boone used him in what he considered the game’s biggest moments. Dellin was my platonic ideal of a high-leverage guy in October. He faced the other team’s best hitters with the score close. It was awesome.

“Dellin is a stud. I told him before the (Wild Card Game), you may be who I go to in the fourth or the fifth inning potentially, if it’s a part of the lineup that I want you facing in that spot,” Boone said. “I just felt he was the guy and so we got him ready for it and he was lights out.”

A Small Adjustment Pays Big Dividends

Betances did not have command problems last season. He had basic strike-throwing problems. Severino had command problems this year. He threw plenty of strikes but they weren’t great strikes. He left pitches out over the plate rather than dotting the corners. Betances couldn’t get the ball over the plate late last season. It was ugly. Relievers who don’t throw strikes tend to find themselves outside the Circle of Trust™ rather quickly.

Never will Betances be a pristine control guy. He’s not someone who will run a 4% walk rate or something like that. He overpowers hitters with upper-90s fastballs and a wicked breaking ball — it’s actually two breaking balls — and he just needs to be around the zone to be effective. He doesn’t have to paint the corners or hit the knees. Just be around the plate enough and in the zone enough, and things’ll work out. Dellin couldn’t do that last year.

To correct that problem, the Yankees and Betances worked to simplify his delivery a bit, specifically shortening up his leg kick and eliminating some extraneous movement. Here is the obligatory before-and-after GIF. That is 2017 Betances on the left and 2018 Betances on the right.

Last season Betances brought his left knee up high during his delivery. Right to his chest, basically. This year the leg kick was much more abbreviated. Up and down, quickly. Last year it was this clunky leg kick that seemed to slow everything down. Now the leg is up, the leg is down, and the ball is heading toward the plate. The simplified delivery helped Betances throw more strikes and get back to being one of the game’s best relievers.

“You’d rather not go through those (struggles), but with relievers that have pitched a lot, it happens quite a bit,” said pitching coach Larry Rothschild in August. “He’s come out on the right side of that more times than not. His track record is impressive. Four All-Star Games is not something you ignore. It was just a matter of him getting back into a real solid delivery and repeating it. He’s been able to do that.”

Betances was not perfect this season. No relievers are. He struggled out of the gate this season and looked #stillbroken, then, late in the season, he had that back-to-back homers blown save against the Tigers. By and large though, Betances was excellent, and a dominant force at the end of the games. And it’s not like we’d never seen that guy before. This season didn’t come out of nowhere. Dellin has been outstanding the last five years. The dominance outweighs the hiccups and that was especially true in 2018. He was great.

What’s Next?

The 2019 season will be Betances’ final season of team control. He is arbitration-eligible for the third and final time this winter — MLBTR projects a $6.4M salary next year — and I suppose the Yankees could approach him about a long-term contract. Betances is obviously very good and very valuable. He also turns 31 in March and can be unpredictable. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees give him a one-year arbitration contract for next season, and then worry about 2020 after the season.

Either way, there shouldn’t be any (or many, I guess) calls to trade or non-tender Betances this offseason. At least not like last offseason. He was great throughout the regular season and postseason, and other than the general “this guy can be unpredictable” worries, there’s no real reason to believe Betances is about to see his performance slip. He’ll be back in a high-leverage role again in 2019.

Given the roster situation and contention window, the Yankees figure to be very active this winter. The team is ready to win now but they need help, particularly in the rotation, but also elsewhere on the roster. The injured Didi Gregorius has to be replaced, as do impending free agents David Robertson and Zach Britton, among others. These next few months should be busy.

The Yankees already have their core in place — they need to supplement this offseason more than overhaul — and they’re going to spend at least part of the offseason keeping that core in place. Guys like Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez are still in their pre-arbitration years and will make something close to the league minimum next year. Others like Gregorius and Luis Severino are arbitration-eligible and will cost a bit more.

The nine-person arbitration class projects to cost the Yankees a whopping $45.1M in 2019. Goodness. Last year’s arbitration class ran $29.2525M even when including Adam Warren’s full salary. The Yankees have about $55M in free agents coming off the books this winter. Going from a $29.2525M arbitration class last year to a $45.1M arbitration class this year eats up about $15M of that $55M. Hmmm. Anyway, let’s talk about the arbitration class a bit.

1. What happens with Gregorius? Sir Didi needs Tommy John surgery and I have to think that means the Yankees will not pursue a long-term contract extension, if they were even planning to pursue one in the first place. Don’t you have to wait and see what Gregorius looks like post-surgery before committing? I mean, he’ll probably be fine, but you never really know. It’s a major surgery.

As I mentioned yesterday, I don’t think the Yankees will non-tender Gregorius, but I don’t think it would be as egregious as it may seem. He might not be back until August or September. Is it really smart to commit $12.4M to a guy who may not help you much, if at all, when he’ll become a free agent next winter? That’s a lot of money to give to a guy who is going to spend most of the year rehabbing. The potential reward isn’t all that great.

Perhaps there’s a compromise to be made here? Rather than a one-year contract at the projected arbitration salary, the Yankees and Gregorius could work out a two-year agreement? Something like, say, two years and $25M? Or maybe even $30M? That ensures two things:

The Yankees won’t pay Gregorius a hefty sum during his injury shortened 2019 season only to possibly lose him to free agency next winter.

Gregorius gets a nice little guaranteed payday and will still be able to become a free agent prior to his age 30 season, when he’ll still have good earning potential.

The Gregorius injury is really unfortunate. He’s a great player who proved difficult to replace during his short time on the disabled list this past season. The injury also complicates his contract situation for next year. Maybe the Yankees will fork over that projected $12.4M contract for the season then worry about Didi’s free agency next winter. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

2. Gray’s salary is higher than I expected. I didn’t expect Gray’s salary projection to come in north of $9M. He made $6.5M this season and was terrible. His past accomplishments (2015 All-Star, third in the 2015 AL Cy Young voting, etc.) are doing the heavy lifting here. No player has ever had his salary cut during arbitration and Sonny sure as heck won’t be the first. I thought maybe he’d get $8M to $8.5M. I underestimated.

Brian Cashman was very open about trading Gray during last week’s end-of-season press conference. I can’t remember him ever being that candid about trading a player. Here’s what Cashman said, via Brendan Kuty:

“I think it’s probably best to try this somewhere else,” Cashman said. “It hasn’t worked out this far. I think he’s extremely talented. I think that we’ll enter the winter unfortunately open minded to a relocation. Probably to maximize his abilities would be more likely best somewhere else. But then it comes down to the final decision of the price in terms of trade acquisition and matching up with somebody, if we match up.”

I don’t think Cashman would’ve said that unless he was confident he could find a trade match for Gray and get something decent in return. The Yankees very clearly want to get rid of him. It doesn’t mean they’ll give him away. Pitching is in demand and hey, if you were another team, wouldn’t you have interest in buying low on Gray? I think there will be enough of a market that the Yankees get something good in return. Not great, but good.

Now, that said, if the Yankees have trouble finding a trade partner for Gray, would they consider non-tendering him? I don’t think so, but it’s not impossible. Worst case scenario is you take Sonny into Spring Training and essentially audition him for teams. Some team is going to suffer an injury and need a starter. That team might be the Yankees! But yeah, Gray’s a goner. His projected salary is higher than expected but I don’t think it’ll be an obstacle during trade talks.

3. Time to talk extension with Betances? Next season is Dellin’s final season of team control. He’ll be a free agent next winter. Historically, players who sign extensions the year before free agency get free agent contracts. There’s no discount. I don’t think Betances would get Wade Davis money (three years, $52M), but Bryan Shaw money (three years, $27M) ain’t cutting it. I could see Dellin’s camp pushing for four years and $44M or so next year.

Betances is an all-time personal fave and he had a tremendous bounceback season this year. He went from completely unusable in the postseason last year to being the team’s No. 1 bullpen weapon this postseason. There were a lot of folks (a lot of folks) who wanted Betances traded last offseason. Fortunately the Yankees kept him. That said, there are some reasons the Yankees should pass on an extension this offseason.

Betances turns 31 in March and his free agent contract begins during his age 32 season. Dellin’s not that young anymore! He’s almost certainly had his best years already.

As we know, Betances is extremely volatile. When he’s good, he’s unhittable. It’s so fun. When he’s bad, he’s unusable. What if it goes bad again in 2019? I hope it doesn’t happen, but it might.

Dellin does have an injury history. He’s been very durable as the big leaguer, so he deserves credit for that, but he has Tommy John surgery in his past and also shoulder issues while in the minors.

As much as I love Betances and hope he gets to record the final out of the World Series for the Yankees one day, I wouldn’t blame the Yankees one bit for not signing him long-term this offseason. Relievers are inherently volatile and Betances is more volatile than most. They have him for another season and that means another year of gathering information. If he’s willing to take a sweetheart deal, then by all means, sign him. Otherwise I think waiting is the right move.

4. Time to talk extension with Hicks? Yes, I think so. Switch-hitting center fielders who provide big value on both sides of the ball are worth keeping. Hicks turned 29 only two weeks ago, so he has several peak years remaining, and I want him to spend those peak years in pinstripes. Both versions of WAR had Hicksie as a top seven outfielder in baseball this season. Dude’s legit.

Hicks will be a free agent next offseason and, as noted earlier, players who sign extensions at this service time level usually get free agent contracts. There’s no more discount. The contract comparables for Hicks are pretty straightforward. He figures to seek Dexter Fowler (five years, $82.5M) and Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80M) money. And you know what? I’d give it to him. That’s the going rate for a comfortably above-average center fielder.

It’s important to note here that a five-year contract would cover Hicks’ age 29-33 seasons. He’s younger now than Fowler (age 31-35) and Cain (age 32-36) were when they signed their deals. Hicks is younger but he also doesn’t have as long a track record, which kinda balances things out. If the Yankees give Hicks a five-year deal this winter, they avoid all those nasty decline years in his mid-to-late 30s, at least in theory. This should be a thing they pursue this winter.

(Getty)

5. Severino’s cheapest years are over. The Baby Bombers are growing up. Severino is arbitration-eligible for the first of four times as a Super Two this season. He has two years and 170 days* of service time, which is well over whatever the Super Two cutoff will be this winter. (It varies year to year and is usually somewhere around two years and 120 days.) Severino’s first big payday has arrived.

* The MLB season runs 186 days but it only takes 172 days to qualify for a full season’s worth of service time. That means, come the 2022-23 offseason, Severino will be *two days* short of qualifying for free agency. Ouch. He spent juuust enough time in Triple-A in 2016 to push his free agency back and I doubt that was a coincidence.

The salary record for a first time arbitration-eligible pitcher belongs to Dallas Keuchel, who received $7.25M for the 2016 season, the year after he won his Cy Young award. Severino doesn’t have a Cy Young but he didn’t finish third in the voting last year, which will boost his earning potential. Within the last three offseasons five starting pitchers went through arbitration for the first time as a Super Two. Their salaries:

Kevin Gausman, 2016-17: $3.45M

Marcus Stroman, 2016-17: $3.4M

Chase Anderson, 2016-17: $2.45M

Taijuan Walker, 2016-17: $2.25M

Mike Foltynewicz, 2017-18: $2.2M

Severino’s been better than all those dudes and, frankly, it’s not all that close either. His first year salary is considerably higher than theirs, as it should be. Using the $5.1M projection as a starting point, Severino’s salaries during his arbitration years could go something like $5.1M, $10M, $15M, $20M. More high finishes in the Cy Young voting will equal more money.

Should the Yankees sign Severino to an extension this winter? Eh, I don’t see the need to rush into it. The Yankees can of course afford big arbitration salaries and pitchers are known to break down. It sucks, but it happens. We spent a few years here saying the Yankees should sign Chien-Ming Wang long-term, they didn’t, then he broke down. Baseball can be cruel like that. I am totally cool waiting at least one more year before discussing a Severino extension. Free agency is still a ways away.

* * *

Even subtracting out the likely to be traded Gray, the Yankees have a very expensive arbitration class this offseason. Their most expensive in years. That tends to happen when you have a lot of good young players. The Yankees will have to make some big decisions with this year’s arbitration class too. Do they approach Gregorius, Hicks, or Betances about extensions the year before free agency? Or just let the year play out? There’s a case to be made for both approaches.

What a difference a year makes. Last year around this time Dellin Betances was persona non grata, essentially unusable in the postseason because his control had deteriorated down the stretch. The Yankees had to cover 8.2 innings with their bullpen in the 2017 Wild Card Game and Betances never even warmed up. Chasen Shreve warmed up. Betances did not.

This season, after an offseason of trade (and even non-tender) speculation, Betances reemerged as a dominant bullpen arm, throwing 66.2 innings with a 2.70 ERA (2.47 FIP) during the regular season. His 42.3% strikeout rate was a career high. His 9.6% walk rate was far better than last year (16.0%) and below his career average (11.0%). With Aroldis Chapman’s knee having been an issue in the second half, Betances was the team’s best reliever during the regular season.

Dellin’s postseason role has been made clear after only three games. He was the eighth inning guy during the regular season, and now, in October, Aaron Boone is using him as a middle of the order specialist. Consider his two appearances thus far:

Wild Card Game: Entered with the Yankees up 2-0, runners on first and second with no outs in the fifth inning, and the 2-3-4 hitters due up.

ALDS Game Two: Entered with the Yankees up 3-1, bases empty with no outs in the sixth inning, and the 2-3-4 hitters due up.

“We wanted Dellin for that part of the order. So I was willing to go to him obviously as early as we were,” said Boone after the Wild Card Game. “Dellin is a stud … I told him before the game, you may be who I go to in the fourth or the fifth inning potentially, if it’s a part of lineup that I want you facing in that spot.”

?

Betances has gotten six of the biggest outs of the year so far. That’s not an unreasonable thing to say. The biggest and most impactful out is probably Luis Severino striking out Marcus Semien with the bases loaded to end the fourth inning in the Wild Card Game. After that, the biggest outs are Betances in the fifth inning of the Wild Card Game and Betances in the sixth inning of ALDS Game Two, right? Middle of the order with a two-run lead? That’s huge.

According to championship probability added, which is essentially win probability added on steroids (WPA tells you how much closer a player brings you to a win, CPA tells you how much closer a player brings you to a championship), Betances has been one of the most impactful pitchers in baseball this season. The 2018 pitcher CPA leaderboard:

Kyle Freeland: +0.089

Clayton Kershaw: +0.052

Josh Hader: +0.050

Dellin Betances: +0.046

Cole Hamels: +0.043

CPA covers the regular season and postseason. Everything a player does throughout the year either helps or hurts his team’s chances of winning the World Series. Betances was the primary eighth inning guy during the regular season and he racked up a lot of high-leverage outs. In the postseason, his role has changed a bit, in that he’s being asked to get the biggest outs regardless of inning. It’s pretty awesome. I love the way Boone has used Dellin so far.

Surely, having guys like Chapman and Zach Britton and David Robertson in reserve for the late innings makes it easier to use Betances in the middle innings. Boone identified a high-leverage situation, put his best reliever in the game, and it helped the Yankees win. Betances retired all six batters he faced in the Wild Card Game and retired the 2-3-4 hitters on nine pitches in ALDS Game Two. (He did allow a run in the next inning.)

“It feels good,” said Betances following Game Two, when asked how to it felt to have an important role this postseason (video link). “Like I said last year, I felt like I wasn’t contributing to the team the way I wanted to. I feels good to go out there and get some great outs.”

The last few years Betances saw his performance slip in the second half, particularly in September. Last year it was especially bad. I always kinda assumed at least part of it was fatigue. Betances was a multi-inning guy for a few years and that takes a toll on you. This year, there was no second half slip. Dellin remained effective all year, so much so that he’s now being asked to get the biggest outs in October. That’s a game-changer. It really is. He’s so good when right.

As good as the bullpen was last season and last postseason, it was not as deep as this year’s bullpen. Joe Girardi leaned heavily on Robertson and Chapman last postseason, with Green and Tommy Kahnle filling in the gaps. This year Boone has Chapman in the ninth, Robertson and Britton as trusted late-inning guys, plus Green to fill in the gaps, plus Betances as what amounts to that middle of the order specialist. Girardi didn’t have this Betances last year.

Thanks to built-in off-days, the Yankees are especially dangerous with their bullpen this postseason. Betances went two innings in the Wild Card Game and two innings in ALDS Game Two, then was able to rest during the off-day and be available for the next game. That doesn’t happen during the regular season. The presence of guys like Robertson and Britton allow Boone to be aggressive with Dellin in the middle innings, which he’s done so far this postseason, and Betances has responded by getting some of the biggest outs of the year already. It’s the polar opposite of last postseason.

The Yankees dropped Kyle Higashioka and Tyler Wade from their Wild Card Game roster and added Sabathia and Tarpley. They’re carrying four starters, eight relievers, and a four-man bench. Normally, eight relievers in a postseason series is overkill, especially since they’re not going to play more than two days in a row. Yanks vs. Sox games tend to get wild though. The extra reliever could come in handy.

The five-man bench: Gardner, Hechavarria, Romine, and Walker. It’s worth noting Gardner (left field), Hechavarria (third base), and Walker (first base) all came in for defense in the late innings of the Wild Card Game. I wonder if that will continue to be the case going forward. I guess it depends on the score. The Yankees might hold Gardner back for a pinch-running situation in a close game. We’ll see.

Middle relief has been a season-long problem for the Red Sox and they’re going to try to patch that up with Rodriguez this postseason. Also, Eovaldi was told to prepare to pitch in relief in Game One. Wright is a starter by trade as well. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was the Astros bench coach last year, when they expertly used starters like Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock, and Charlie Morton in relief in the postseason. I suspect he’ll look to do the same with the Red Sox this year.

ALDS Game One begins tonight at 7:30pm ET. As expected, the Yankees and Red Sox games drew the primetime slots. All five ALDS games will begin somewhere between 7:30pm ET and 8:10pm ET. The entire series will be broadcast on TBS.

Notably absent: Greg Bird, CC Sabathia, and Stephen Tarpley. Sabathia being excluded from the roster isn’t a surprise. At this point, he’s not one of the ten best pitchers on the staff, especially when you consider he’d have to pitch in an unfamiliar relief role. Tarpley was said to be in the mix for a bullpen spot. Ultimately, the A’s only have one hitter (Olson) who needs a left-on-left specialist, and he’d be pinch-hit for instantly by Canha, a lefty crusher. Tarpley didn’t have much of a purpose.

As for Bird, I am a bit surprised he’s not on the Wild Card Game roster only because the Yankees love him. That said, he hasn’t hit at all this season, and he offers no defensive versatility or baserunning value. His only role would be as a pinch-hitting option who could maybe park one in the short porch, and who’s getting lifted for a pinch-hitter? No one in the starting lineup. The Yankees opted for Wade (pinch-runner) and Hechavarria (Andujar’s defensive caddy) over Bird. Can’t blame them.

The Athletics are really going all in on the bullpen game, huh? Jackson is the only actual starting pitcher on the roster and I assume he is their emergency extra innings guy. Their bench is sneaky good. Canha crushes lefties and Joyce is a fine lefty platoon bat who could take aim at the right field porch. Pinder, a right-handed hitter, hit 13 homers with a 111 wRC+ as a part-timer this year, and he played every position other than pitcher and catcher. A’s manager Bob Melvin could get creative with his bench.

Severino and Hendriks (an opener) are starting the Wild Card Game tonight. The game is scheduled to begin a little after 8pm ET and it’ll be broadcast on TBS. Winner moves on to play the Red Sox in the ALDS. Loser goes home.

The Wild Card Game is its own postseason round. The Yankees and A’s will set a 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game, then whichever team advances will be able to set a new 25-man roster for the ALDS. Because of that, we’ve seen some funky wildcard rosters in recent years. The Yankees carried only nine pitchers on their 2015 Wild Card Game roster. Last year they carried ten. That means a great big bench.

So, with the Wild Card Game now only six days away, this is as good a time as any to try to piece together the 25-man roster the Yankees will carry next Wednesday. It’s a bummer the Yankees are going to finish with 100-ish wins and have to play in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but hey, if you don’t like it, win more games. Let’s dig into the potential Wild Card Game roster.

The Locks

Might as well start here. The way I see it, the Yankees have 17 players who are absolute locks for the Wild Card Game roster right now. The 17:

I was initially on the fence about Hechavarria, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized he’s going to make the Wild Card Game roster. Worst case scenario is he serves as Andujar’s defensive replacement. The rest is pretty straightforward though, right? Right. We still have eight roster spots to fill, so let’s get to it.

Locks, If Healthy

Didi Gregorius is out with torn cartilage in his right wrist and he could play in games before the end of the season. He got the okay to resume baseball activities yesterday, so that’s good. If he’s able to play this weekend and has no problems, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster. If not, it opens up the possibility for Ronald Torreyes to make the roster. The Gregorius/Torreyes spot is our 18th player.

Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, has a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day. He too could play before the regular season ends, and, if that happens, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster as well. If Hicks can’t play in the Wild Card Game, I think Tyler Wade makes it instead. Wade can play the outfield, if necessary, but more importantly he can run. No Hicks on the roster means Gardner is in center field rather than on the bench as a pinch-running option. With Hicks out, Wade becomes the pinch-runner. The Hicks/Wade spot is our 19th player.

The Starting Pitcher(s)

We still don’t know who will start the Wild Card Game. Aaron Boone has indicated the decision could come soon and he’s made it pretty clear it’ll be either J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, or Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees aren’t going to do a straight bullpen game. Two weeks ago RAB readers wanted Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees want it to be Severino. Happ is a perfectly fine candidate as well.

At the moment Happ is lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest and Tanaka with two extra days of rest. Severino would be on three extra days of rest, though he could wind up starting Game 162 should the Yankees need to win that game to clinch homefield advantage. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. Based on the way things are set up now, all three guys will be available to start the Wild Card Game. That’s not an accident. The Yankees made sure they had options.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Instead of focusing on names, let’s focus on roster spots. The Yankees carried three starting pitchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Tanaka, Ivan Nova) and three starting pitchers on the 2017 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia). I expect them to carry three starting pitchers again this year. That gives the Yankees:

It is entirely possible Happ, Severino, and Tanaka will all be on the Wild Card Game roster even though only one guy is starting the game. Or it’s possible Happ and Severino are on the roster with Lance Lynn, who has bullpen experience, replacing Tanaka. I don’t think the Yankees would carry Sabathia as a reliever at this point, but it can’t be ruled out. Gray? Eh. Seems like a worst case scenario.

I suspect that, unless he has to start Game 162 on Sunday, Severino will be on the Wild Card Game roster. Even if he doesn’t start the Wild Card Game, he could be another bullpen option. Heck, he might be on the roster even if he starts Game 162. The Wild Card Game would be Severino’s throw day and he could give you an inning or two out of the bullpen. Yeah, one way or the other, I think Severino’s on the roster. He’s our 20th player.

My hunch is both Happ and Tanaka will be on the roster as well. I was thinking maybe the Yankees would carry Lynn instead of one of those two because he has bullpen experience, but I keep going back to Brian Cashman saying it is “all hands on deck for that one game,” and Happ and Tanaka are objectively better than Lynn. The bullpen experience is nice. I don’t think it trumps effectiveness. Happ and Tanaka are the 21st and 22nd players (and eighth and ninth pitchers) on our roster.

The Last Bullpen Spot

Whoever starts the Wild Card Game, that guy will be on a very short leash. It could devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly. For both teams. Because of that, I think the Yankees will carry ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster like last season, rather than nine like in 2015. I wouldn’t rule out an 11th pitcher, honestly. I’m going to stick with ten though. That seems like plenty for a one-game scenario.

With Happ, Severino, and Tanaka joining the six late-game relievers, we are left with eleven candidates for the final pitching spot: Gray, Lynn, Sabathia, Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley. I think we can rule out Adams, German, Loaisiga, and Sheffield right now. They would’ve gotten a longer look this month if they were Wild Card Game candidates.

Tarpley has gotten some run lately as a left-on-left guy and the other night Boone told Erik Boland that Tarpley has put himself “in the conversation” for the Wild Card Game roster. Since his ugly big league debut, Tarpley has thrown 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and lefties are 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts against him. In the minors this year Tarpley held left-handed batters to a .141/.213/.183 line with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Really good!

There is one reason to carry Tarpley on the Wild Card Game roster: Matt Olson. Oakland’s lefty swinging first baseman went into last night’s game hitting .247/.338/.496 (128 wRC+) against righties and .251/.329/.369 (96 wRC+) against lefties. He’s someone you can LOOGY. That said, if you bring in a lefty for Olson, A’s manager Bob Melvin will counter with righty swinging Mark Canha, who’s hitting .274/.331/.596 (148 wRC+) against southpaws. Melvin’s been doing it all year.

In a high-leverage situation — is there such a thing as a low-leverage situation in a game as important as the Wild Card Game? — I’d rather have one of the regular late-inning relievers facing Olson than Tarpley facing Canha. All the late-inning guys have good numbers against lefties. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Tarpley faces Olson/Canha in the middle (or late) innings rather than one of the usual late-inning guys. Worrying about the platoon matchup there seems like paralysis by analysis. Overthinking it.

I’m tossing Tarpley into the maybe pile right now. A good series against Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers this weekend would really help his cause. For our purposes, we’re down to Cessa, Cole, Gray, Kahnle, Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley for the final bullpen spot. Hard pass on Gray and Cole. They’ve pitched too poorly for too long. Can’t see it being Cessa either. Kahnle was excellent in the Wild Card Game (and postseason) last year …

… but that was 2017 Tommy Kahnle. 2018 Kahnle is not 2017 Kahnle. 2017 Kahnle would be on the Wild Card Game roster no questions asked. 2018 Tommy Kahnle? Nah. So we’re left with Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley. So maybe it will be Tarpley? Either way, we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen, someone who won’t pitch in the Wild Card Game unless things go really crazy. I’d take Lynn. Tarpley has a shot. Whoever it is, this is our tenth pitcher and 23rd player on the roster.

The Rest of the Bench

A ten-man pitching staff means a six-man bench. Romine gets one bench spot. (No, Romine shouldn’t start the Wild Card Game.) Another spot goes to Wade (Hicks out) or Gardner (Hicks in). If Gregorius plays, both Hechavarria and Walker are on the bench. If Gregorius does not play, either Hechavarria or Walker is in the starting lineup and the other is on the bench. Depending on Didi, either three or four bench spots are already claimed. There are four candidates for the remaining bench spots. The four and their potential roles:

Greg Bird: Lefty bench bat

Kyle Higashioka: Third catcher

Ronald Torreyes (if Gregorius is in): Utility infielder

Tyler Wade (if Hicks is in): Utility guy and speedster

The big name bench candidate is Bird. We know Voit is starting at first base in the Wild Card Game, even against a right-handed pitcher. He’s been too good and Bird’s been too bad. The question is this: What would Bird provide the Yankees? A backup first baseman and a lefty bench bat who could take aim at the short porch? Sure. But Walker could do that too, and Bird offers zero defensive versatility.

Then again, if Gregorius is unable to play in the Wild Card Game, Walker would presumably start at second base — it would be either Gleyber at short and Walker at second, or Hechavarria at short and Gleyber at second — thus leaving the Yankees without a backup first baseman/lefty bat on the bench. Given his performance, leaving Bird off the Wild Card Game roster would be completely justifiable. I still think he’ll be on. The Yankees love him and they have the spare bench spots. I hereby declare Bird our 24th player.

Don’t dismiss Higashioka as a Wild Card Game roster candidate. His presence would allow the Yankees to pinch-run for Sanchez without worrying about Romine potentially getting hurt. Or they could pinch-hit for Sanchez in a big spot. I wouldn’t do it and I don’t think the Yankees would, but it would be an option. The Yankees only had two catchers on the roster last year because Sanchez was the man and he wasn’t coming out of the game. They did carry three catchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster though (Sanchez, Brian McCann, John Ryan Murphy).

Right now we have a 24-man roster that includes either Gregorius or Torreyes, and either Hicks or Wade. This is starting to get confusing. Let’s recap everything. This is how I think the bench and 25-man Wild Card Game roster shakes out:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Starters

Relievers

Sanchez

Andujar

Gardner

Happ

Betances

Romine

Bird

Judge

Severino

Britton

Hechavarria

McCutchen

Tanaka

Chapman

Torres

Stanton

Green

Voit

Hicks/Wade

Holder

Walker

Robertson

Didi/Toe

Lynn/Tarpley

Those are 24 roster spots. Ten pitchers and 14 position players. The Gregorius and Hicks injuries are the x-factors. There are three scenarios here with regards to the 25th roster spot:

Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt: Torreyes and Wade both make it, and the Yankees carry either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher.

Only one of Gregorius or Hicks is healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, Torreyes and Wade both make it.

Gregorius and Hicks are both healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, only one of Torreyes or Wade makes it.

If both Gregorius and Hicks are healthy — and we all hope that is the case — I think Wade makes the Wild Card Game roster over Torreyes because he’s more versatile and his speed could really come in handy in a late-inning pinch-running situation. If both Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt, the Yankees are kinda stuck. It’s either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher at that point.

The position player side of the Wild Card Game roster is going to depend on the health of Gregorius and Hicks. On the pitching side, the Yankees can pick and choose who they want. We know the six end-game relievers will be there. The Yankees are likely to carry three starters, no matter who they end up being. Do they carry Tarpley? That might be the most interesting Wild Card Game roster question.