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2014 Starts Out More Expensive Than 2013

Weekly gas price trend for the U.S.

The price of a gallon of gasoline remained fairly flat during the past, on a nationwide level, according to the latest weekly survey from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The EIA report shows the average price of a gallon of unleaded is just under $3.33 per gallon, although as a practical measure, the price of fuel stayed pretty much the same from one week to the next. However, regional price shifts tell a radically different story, with some areas paying several cents more per gallon and others paying a few cents less.

Midwest and Rockies Endure Price Increases, Particularly Year Over Year

The cost of driving did get a little more expensive for people living in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain states, with the price of fuel going up about 3¢ per gallon in both regions, underscoring the pricing volatility that can be experienced from one region to the next and on a nearly daily basis. The Midwest, for instance, has suffered wild pricing swings over the past month that have made budgeting for gasoline difficult for most drivers. Stations are charging, on average, about $3.25 per gallon across the Midwest, which is about where prices were two weeks ago. After a one-week respite, Midwesterners are paying almost as much as they were at the end of December, when sudden week-over-week inflation brought the price of gas in the heartland to fresh highs for 2013.

Indeed, with the recent spate of price swings in the Midwest, drivers across the region are paying about 10¢ per gallon more than at this time last year. However, that number is not nearly as severe as those living in the Rocky Mountain states. The average price of gas across states like Idaho, Montana and Colorado may be less than in the Midwest, at $3.15 per gallon, but that figure is over 28¢ per gallon higher than January 2013. While most of the rest of the nation is paying about 2¢ to 3¢ more per gallon this year, the Midwest and Rockies have been hit hardest by the year-over-year price increases.

EIA Predicts Strong Crude Supply Will Bring Prices Down

The Energy Information Adminstration continues to forecast lower prices through 2014, however, despite the rocky start to the year. Typically, gas prices do begin a calendar year slightly higher because refineries are holding back on new inventories to avoid year-end taxes they would have to pay on stored supplies. Prices generally fall through January and into the start of February. But the EIA is predicting prices will continue declinig through 2014 and, potentially, 2015, with a strong domestic crude oil supply bolstering import supplies.

The weekly petroleum summary from the government forecasts domestic crude oil production to reach levels that have not been seen since the Nixon Administration. “EIA projects crude oil production to average 8.5 million bbl/d in 2014 and 9.3 million bbl/d in 2015, which would be the highest annual rate of crude oil production since 1972,” the agency has reported. “Production from tight oil formations in Texas, North Dakota, and a handful of other states has driven total crude oil production growth for the past four years. Development activity in these key onshore basins and increasing productivity as companies learn how to apply hydraulic fracturing techniques more effectively and efficiently are central to [the] Short-term Energy Outlook forecast.”

U.S. domestic oil production from 1960 onward. The EIA is predicting domestic prodution will rise to levels not seen since the early 1970’s.

Crude Futures Mixed Overseas And Domestically

The EIA report has had little impact on crude futures markets, which have responded in recent months to political unrest in Libya and Syria, driving the cost of Brent Light Sweet Crude higher. Potential resolutions to the Iranian nuclear refinement programs has kept pricing pressure at bay, however, with the potential for new supplies fairly good, if negotiations go well. New talks between world powers and Tehran are expected to continue in Geneva next month.

The political unrest that has kept Libya’s crude production low, at about 300,000 barrels per day, has finally begun to ease. That has helped production double to about 600,000 bbl/d in the past couple weeks, but that level is about half the production that was being output in July 2013.

Prices of West Texas Intermediate augur the best potential for lower gas prices in the immediate future, at least for North America. WTI had spiked in December, closing over $100 per barrel, but prices for February delivery have fallen considerably in the past week, closing Monday at $91.54 per barrel.

Gas Prices Are Mixed As Diesel Prices Begin A New Surge

Gas prices could be heading higher than government forecasters expect as Brent crude oil prices flirt with levels not seen since March 2012. Strikes in Libya and other supply disruptions have pushed Brent well past $112 per barrel, dragging WTI futures for January with it. WTI closed north of $96 per barrel Tuesday.

The recent upward turnaround in gas prices has begun to do another about-face, although the rise in fuel costs for some has continued past the Thanksgiving travel period. The lingering high prices and price increases continued to affect mainly the East Coast region, while most other areas saw prices level off or return to the declines that were enjoyed during October and the start of November. The declines may not last, however, if futures prices continue their unabashed escalation.

Dowload EIA report.

The latest weekly survey from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows the average price of a gallon of unleaded gas is now at $3.27, down from $3.29 last week but still six cents higher than the seasonal and yearly low that was enjoyed two weeks ago.

The average price of diesel continued upward, and at a more brisk pace, during the past week. The average price of a gallon of fuel is now costing truckers $3.88 at the national level, but regional prices are as high as $4.06. Drivers in New England, broadly, in the east and California, specifically, on the west coast were paying the highest prices. The lowest diesel prices were to be found on the Gulf Coast, but prices there are still averaging about $3.78 per gallon.

Crude Oil Could Be Grinch That Steals Christmas

The price of crude oil has been quite mixed lately, and Brent crude has been heavily influenced by supply problems originating in Libya. An EIA report issued just before the Thanksgiving holiday showed the continued strikes at loading ports have depressed Libyan crude supplies by about one million barrels per day. Indeed, the price of Brent has remained above $110 per barrel since November 21, peaking at prices not seen since August, when other supply disruptions in Libya affected the price of overseas crude.

Breezewood, Pennsylvania in May 2012, two months after the Brent futures’ last mad dash into territory above $112.

However, the markets took a new turn Tuesday afternoon as when Brent crude closed significantly above $112 for the first time since early 2012. Tuesday trading at the New York Mercantile Exchange brought a fresh price levels and pressures as the benchmark commodity flirted with the $113 level before retreating some later in the day. Brent crude has only been that at that level or higher on three brief occasions in the past three years, with March 2012 being the last time the commodity has priced so high. The cost of gas at the pump, during the late spring of 2012, reflected that pricing pressure.

Domestic crude, West Texas Intermediate, has also been under price pressure of late, and Tuesday’s trading session pushed the WTI dramatically higher in the wake of Brent’s Monday and Tuesday closings. WTI for January delivery swelled well past $96. WTI had been on a longer-term downward trend, closing even as low as $91.77 per barrel the day before Thanksgiving.

The price of WTI on the New York Mercantile Exchange was at $96.12 per barrel on Tuesday afternoon, just at 4 p.m., the first time since Halloween prices have been so high, and an increase of $4.35 per barrel, or about 5%, in just three trading sessions since the holiday.

Nevertheless, the EIA has maintained its forecast that January 2014 prices will rise, but only as a short-term event as season supply and refinery adjustments are made. The longer-term forecast is for consumer prices of gas to continue sliding lower during 2014. However, prolonged supply issues in Libya and Europe could impel traders to drive futures further upward, which is not originally a part of the EIA forecast.

The price disruptions on the futures markets, as have happened in the past few days, are not likely to leave consumers unaffected. The questions only will be whether crude prices level off, and if they do not, will retailers hold off hiking prices until after the holiday season? If retail distributors and operators anticipate significant supply cost increases in January, they could begin raising prices weeks before January deliveries get underway.

The price of gas went into a near freefall during the past week, with many regions of the United States enjoying some of the lowest prices of the year. The biggest decline in prices came for the Midwest, where the average price of a gallon of unleaded plunged nearly 12¢ per gallon to just under $3.20. Across the Gulf Coast, the price of gas is near the $3.00 mark, the lowest regional average in the country. For the broader, nationwide average, the price of unleaded stands, officially, at about $3.29 per gallon, a drop of nearly 7¢ over last week, according to the latest survey from the Energy Information Administration.

One area where drivers are still experiencing higher gas prices is across the West Coast and California. Gas price averages in some areas are more than 30¢ above the national average, with a trip up the Pacific Coast Highway likely to set you back about $3.61 per gallon. Most Westerners, however, are paying about $3.42 per gallon; drivers across the Rocky Mountain states are divvying up slightly less, at $3.37 per gallon, on average.

The price of shipping goods over land has also become a little less expensive, with the price of diesel fuel dropping about 2¢ per gallon during the pas week. Overall, however, diesel prices are lagging regular gasoline in price declines. The average price of diesel remains in the high $3.80’s, with prices in some areas across the West Coast still well north of $4.00 per gallon, particularly in California.

However, the current price trend is likely to continue, and that will bring further relief to regular drivers as well as truckers, going forward. As the price of crude oil continues falling, the retail price at the pump will follow suit, typically within a couple of months. However, crude prices have been mixed in recent weeks. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is now well off it’s yearly highs, closing Tuesday at $97.46 for December delivery. However, Brent Light Sweet Crude remained well above the 100-dollar threshhold, primarly because of unreast in Libya this week. That political instability has shaken markets, but it has not caused a run-up in fuel prices like investors witnessed in August, when concerns in both Libya and Syria drove speculation of supply disruptions.

Even so, the EIA has predicted the winter driving season will begin with gas prices at their lowest levels of the year. The EIA is further forecasting gasoline prices to continue falling into 2014, with a brief uptick in January, which is normal for the start of a calendar year.

Perhaps the best news for 2014 projections is for the truckers. Diesel prices, which have hovered near or above $4.00 per gallon for the past two years, are projected to finally fall to around $3.76 per gallon, on average, in the coming calendar year. However, those projections are subject to considerable fluctuations due to supply and demand issues, particularly where it concerns refinery capacity and the potential for supply disruptions during the winter.