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Half-game hole bigger than it looks for Mobile BayBears entering final series

andy green mobile baybears.jpg

Mobile BayBears manager Andy Green and Birmingham Barons manager Julio Vinas shake hands before a Southern League game on Aug. 8, 2013, at Hank Aaron Stadium in Mobile, Ala. Both the BayBears and the Barons have qualified for the Southern League playoffs, which start Sept. 5. (Mike Kittrell/mkittrell@al.com)

It's a good thing for the Mobile BayBears that they locked up their Southern League playoff invitation by winning the South Division's first-half championship. Even though Mobile is only one-half game out of the second-half division lead, the odds are against the BayBears adding the second-half title as they head into their final regular-season series against the Pensacola Blue Wahoos.

The five-game set against Pensacola starts at 7:05 p.m. Thursday at Hank Aaron Stadium.

Four teams are within three games of the South Division second-half lead with five games to play. Jacksonville and Mississippi are tied for the lead, Mobile is one-half game behind and Pensacola trails by three games. The problem for the BayBears is Mississippi and Jacksonville end their regular seasons matched up in a five-game series on the Suns' home field, meaning one of them is guaranteed to win at least three games.

Of the 36 combinations of outcomes that can happen between the Mobile-Pensacola and Jacksonville-Mississippi series, only six will get the BayBears another half-championship. But that's infinitely better than Pensacola's chances. Even though they're only three games behind, nothing the Wahoos can do at The Hank over the final five games will get them into the playoffs.

That's assuming all 10 games in Mobile and Jacksonville are played. Right now, there's no chance of a tie for first place in the final South Division second-half standings.

Jacksonville and Mississippi have 36-28 second-half records, Mobile is 36-29 and Pensacola stands at 33-31.

Since Mobile already has its postseason spot secured, does it really matter to the BayBears if they win the second-half title, too? Aside from unmeasurable factors such as pride and competitive spirit, winning both halves has a tangible benefit.

The Southern League division playoffs will take place Sept. 5-9. As the first-half champion, Mobile will host the first two games in the best-of-five South playoffs on Sept. 5 and 6. The second-half champion will host the final three games, as needed. But if Mobile wins both halves, then the BayBears would face one road game in the division playoffs - the third game. After that game, the series would return to Hank Aaron Stadium for completion, if necessary.

The North Division playoffs have no such complications: First-half champ Birmingham will host the first two games; second-half champ Tennessee will host the rest.

So how can Mobile claim double championships?

First, the BayBears will have to win at least four of five against Pensacola. Three wins in the series with the Wahoos won't win the second-half title for Mobile, regardless of what happens in Jacksonville.

If the BayBears sweep, then Mississippi or Jacksonville also would have to sweep that series to finish ahead of Mobile. If the BayBears win four of five against the Wahoos, then Mississippi or Jacksonville would finish ahead of Mobile only by winning at least four games in that series.

If Mobile doesn't win at least four games against Pensacola, then the Jacksonville-Mississippi series becomes the playoff before the playoffs, with the winner going into the postseason as the South Division's second-half champion. Of course at this point, those two teams don't know how Mobile will fare against Pensacola.

But there's another way Mississippi or Jacksonville can go to the playoffs without winning the second-half championship. If Mobile wins the second-half championship, then the BayBears' division-playoff opponent would be the South Division team with the next best overall record for the entire season.

What that means is this: Jacksonville has to win the series against Mississippi to go to the playoffs, but Mississippi doesn't have to win the series against Jacksonville to go to the playoffs.

Mississippi's overall record this season is 2.5 games better than Jacksonville's - 74-60 to 70-61. So the Braves will be in the playoffs if they win three games against Jacksonville or if they win two games against Jacksonville and Mobile wins at least four games against Pensacola.

Regardless of how it shakes out, the winner of the South Division playoff will play the winner of the North Division playoff in a best-of-five series for the Southern League championship Sept. 10-14. The first two games will be played at the South champion before finishing on the North winner's home field.