Hello and good morning from London (or “saluton kaj bonan matenon de London” in Esperanto, for all the 48 percenters out there …). Tom McTague here, filling in for Ryan, who I jealously imagine is somewhere sunny, sleeping off last night’s pina colada session, leaving the rest of us to carry on speaking truth to power. Or something like that.

TENSIONS RISE OVER UKRAINE: While everyone in Europe appears to be on holiday or watching the Olympics, something serious is brewing in Russia. Just 24 hours after accusing Kiev of sending terrorists into Crimea, President Vladimir Putin Thursday summoned his military chiefs to review “scenarios for counter-terrorism security measures along the land border.” The Russian president has a history of aggression while the rest of the world’s eyes are elsewhere. Remember, it was during the Beijing Games in 2008 that Russia attacked Georgia. As Adrian Karatnycky writes for POLITICO, there appears little to gain for Kiev in this, but “numerous reasons why allegations of terrorism by Ukraine might serve Russia well.” More here: http://politi.co/2bjpjJp

WORSE UNDER THE DONALD? The allegations of Kiev-sponsored attacks on Crimea could be a false flag designed to give Russia an excuse to make further incursions into Ukraine. Russia devised similar excuses to justify the 2014 annexation of the peninsula and the subsequent campaign in eastern Ukraine. At the moment, Putin’s behavior gets short shrift from the White House. But what would happen under President Trump? Linda Kinstler explores: http://politi.co/2blu34M

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US 2016 …

While we’re on the topic, here’s a wrap of the latest in the U.S. presidential election …

TRUMP SLUMP: Time magazine takes a deep-dive inside Donald Trump’s jaw-dropping summer meltdown. A favorite quote, from one senior Clinton adviser: “On other campaigns, we would have to scrounge for crumbs. Here, it’s a fire hose. He can set himself on fire at breakfast, kill a nun at lunch and waterboard a puppy in the afternoon. And that doesn’t even get us to prime time.” This is all before he accused Barack Obama of being the founder of ISIS. http://ti.me/2bhAgLM

GAME OVER? After all this, it’s no surprise the Republican nominee has seen his poll numbers collapse. Elections expert Nate Silver tweeted numbers Thursday showing Clinton trailing by just two points in South Carolina. Repeat: Hillary Clinton is in contention in South Carolina. If that doesn’t change, it’s game over for Trump. Hillary now has a higher chance of winning the White House than Obama in 2012, according to Silver, who rates her chances of winning at 77 percent.

NUCLEAR DONALD: But with the election still months away, anything can happen. Donald Trump is one of two people who could next year control the most powerful military force in human history. POLITICO magazine considers the sobering reality of how the “presidency has evolved into something akin to a nuclear monarchy” and whether Trump is suitable to be crowned king. Full piece here: http://politi.co/2b0MwhM

QUESTIONS OVER TTIP: Trump may be losing, but his message is gaining traction. On Thursday, Hillary Clinton came out forcefully against the Trans-Pacific Partnership. “I will stop any trade deal that kills jobs or holds down wages,” she said. Where does that leave the transatlantic version, one has to wonder? For POLITICO Pros: http://politi.co/2bkACTN

SPAIN — SOCIALISTS SAY YES TO SAYING NO TO RAJOY: “The federal committee [of the Spanish Socialist Party] debated and unanimously approved voting ‘no’ to the reappointment of Rajoy,” said party spokesman Óscar López yesterday. With Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera having laid down his demands for supporting acting Popular Party Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, the focus now shifts to the latter’s executive board. http://bit.ly/2b0SYrg

TURKEY — ERDOĞAN’S MAN IN BRUSSELS URGES CALM: Florian Eder has a fascinating interview with the outgoing Turkish ambassador to the EU — a tough gig for anyone right now. Selim Yenel is keen to downplay the ever-increasing number of obstacles blocking Ankara’s long and winding road to EU membership. On Turkey’s possible re-introduction of the death penalty for instance — something EU leaders consider a red line — Yenel insists “it’s just talk.” What of the EU’s migration deal with Turkey? It may be be on life support, but don’t expect Yenel to acknowledge that. Read more here: http://politi.co/2b2tYjt

TURKEY — ERDOĞAN POLL RATINGS HIT RECORD HIGH: 67.5 percent of Turks approve of the way President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is handling his duties, according to a survey by Ankara-based MetroPOLL. Given his desires to amend the constitution to boost his power, this matters. To do so, he would need 367 votes, 50 more than the number of AKP lawmakers currently in the parliament. http://bloom.bg/2bjPeCI

TURKEY — ANKARA CALLS ON MOSCOW TO FORM ANTI-ISIL ALLIANCE: Following the Turkish president’s sojourn to Saint Petersburg this week, an unlikely partnership appears to be emerging. Turkey’s foreign minister called on Thursday for Russia to work with Ankara in carrying out military strikes against the ISIL terror group in Syria, as the two countries seek to patch up bilateral ties. http://politi.co/2aKUJpZ

COMPETITION — FRENCH CHEMICAL MERGER PROBE: It was heartening to learn that POLITICO’s ever-vigilant reporters were not the only people working in Brussels through August. The EU’s unholidaying competition arm yesterday launched an in-depth probe into the $130 billion (around €117 billion) mega-merger between Dow and DuPont, two U.S. chemical giants. It’s an unusually broad investigation that ranges from seeds to chemicals to protection against nematode worms. It is the first time Playbook has seen “chewing insects” cited in an antitrust case.

This is highly political territory. The EU’s Dow-DuPont probe will set the tone for two more massive deals: ChemChina-Syngenta and Bayer-Monsanto. Farmers and NGOs are very worried about what such sweeping sectoral consolidation means for prices of basic agricultural products and the impact on the variety of goods on the market. We all eat, ergo we should all pay attention. http://politi.co/2aL99q6

FRANCE — FARM BATTLE TO COME: Stay tuned for further details in the coming days on the battle between two of France’s top cabinet members – Agriculture Minister Stéphane Le Foll and Environment Minister Ségolène Royal — which is sending shockwaves through European food and farming policy. If there was one battlefield where you would normally expect the farmers always to come out on top, it would be France. Traditionally, they would get their way on pesticides and herbicides. But Le Foll’s defeat by Royal over French agrichemicals policy has set the tone for a broader backlash against conventional, industrial farming rights across the EU, meaning the outlook for licensing some of the best known weed-killers and insecticides is now uncertain. In the fight between the two ministers, President Hollande is taking the side of the mother of his children (hint: it’s Royal).

FRANCE — THE DRIVING FORCE: This is just for fun: Which cars do French polis drive? Caradisiac: http://bit.ly/2aNFqwa

UK CORNER …

LABOUR’S DEATH THROES: While Theresa May was relaxing in the Swiss Alps on the first day of her summer holiday, Jeremy Corbyn found himself in a town hall in Gateshead debating the future of the Labour Party. The 400 or so who went to the hustings appeared to be enjoying themselves, loudly booing Corbyn’s rival Owen Smith. But no one else in the country appeared to take the blind bit of notice, with not a single TV channel choosing to carry the debate live. http://bit.ly/2b9tbeW

WELCOME TO THE LAMESTREAM MEDIA: Corbynista? Hate the media? Want to know the truth? Well here’s something for you: Corbyn facts, a new website setting things straight. First up: Is Jeremy Corbyn electable? Simple: “Yes, he is.” Fact. Read more “facts” here: http://www.corbynfacts.com

CORBYN FACT OR SLUR? The Independent’s Andy Grice has a good story revealing plans to change Labour’s rulebook to cement the left of the party’s grip on power and dilute the influence of its MPs. http://ind.pn/2aMPs0G

SPOTTED — BLAIRITE CONSPIRATORS: With Labour in crisis, it came as something of a surprise to see former Scottish Labour Leader Jim Murphy and the party’s General Secretary Iain McNicol enjoying a relaxing lunch together at the plush Bank restaurant near Westminster Thursday. McNicol appeared to be enjoying a nice glass of white, but teetotal Murphy was steering clear. The party’s troubles have seemingly yet to drive the Glaswegian hardman to drink.

SPEAKING OF BLAIRITES … Defeated Labour leadership contender Liz Kendall gives an entertaining romp of an interview to GQ magazine, in which she talks golf clubs, pervy men and the Labour Party dying under Jeremy Corbyn. http://bit.ly/2blfAVh

HEIR TO BLAIR: Out of power and suddenly with plenty of time on their hands, David Cameron and some of his closest allies are working on memoirs about their time in Number 10. Cameron himself is reportedly in line for a bigger advance than the whopping £4.6 million Tony Blair landed for his reminiscences. Craig Oliver, his former spin chief, is publishing a book about the failed EU referendum campaign. And this week it emerged that George Osborne, the former chancellor and Cameron’s closest political ally, has been talking to literary agents Curtis Brown about penning a book about his own time in politics. At a lunch hosted by Private Eye this week, the assembled journalists were skeptical about the clutch of forthcoming insider accounts — the Cameronites have never been an especially self-reflective bunch.

HEIR TO BROWN: After becoming Britain’s second female prime minister, Theresa May faced plenty of coverage likening her to the original Iron Lady. But the Spectator’s Isabel Hardman takes a hard look at the new Conservative Party leader and finds more similarities with Gordon Brown. http://bit.ly/2b0MTsz

BREXIT — UK VOTERS WERE NOT ILL INFORMED, THEY WERE ANGRY: Remainers claim that if only Brits had understood what the EU was, they wouldn’t have voted to leave it. Polling suggests otherwise: Being familiar with the EU’s institutions does not necessarily equate to being pro-European. Matthew Holehouse has more: http://bit.ly/2aDmxRB

TUSK TO MEET MERKEL NEXT WEEK: Ahead of the Bratislava summit on September 27, Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, has confirmed he’s meeting German Chancellor Angela Merkel next Thursday at Schloss Meseberg in Germany. More here: http://bit.ly/2b8MXd8

MIGRATION CORNER …

GREEK NUMBERS BACK UP: Authorities have registered a 76 percent increase in the number of migrants landing in Greece. http://bit.ly/2aNAttu

WHERE HAVE ALL THE MIGRANTS GONE? While the migration crisis that has gripped Europe is far from over, hotspots that attracted thousands of refugees (and scores of photojournalists) in the last half of 2015 look very different a year on. Tim Ball with this photo essay: http://politi.co/2aQmuPh

ORBÁN’S GUARDS: In Hungary, 3,000 police are likely to be recruited to join “border hunter” units, reinforcements for units already monitoring the country’s Serbian and Croatian borders, according to government spokesman Bence Tuzson. New laws make it possible for migrants detained close to the border in Hungary to be sent back to Serbia. http://bit.ly/2aCJofP

BULGARIAN FENCE BUILDING: Fearful of an influx of migrants, the Bulgarian government is building a 30 kilometer fence along the Turkish border to a height of 3.5 meters. Plans are also being put in place to build a 484 kilometer fence along the border with Greece. http://bit.ly/2b9VHRH

BELGIAN BACKLASH: 60 percent of Belgians think there are too many migrants in their country, although they remain supportive of open borders. More here (in French): http://bit.ly/2aJCPDS

NORTHERN CALAIS? EUROCRAT NOT SO SURE: The European Commission’s spin chief in London Mark English could not resist taking to Twitter to mock the Daily Express over claims Berwick upon Tweed on the Scottish border could become the “new Calais” if Sturgeon pushes ahead with independence. English tweeted: “Bit confused. Berwick’s several km inside England … which way wd these migrants be trying to go?”

POLAND — CONSTITUTIONAL COURT RULES COURT LAW IS UNCONSTITUTIONAL: Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal ruled yesterday that a new law regulating its own functioning is in part unconstitutional — a decision that threatens to escalate its long-running row with the right-wing Polish government. Jan Cienski has more: http://politi.co/2b1uf5Y

FINLAND — TRUE FINNS LEADER ‘WILL NOT SURRENDER:’ With his party’s popularity sinking to its lowest level in six years, Timo Soini, Finland’s foreign minister and head of the hard-right True Finns party, is rejecting calls to step down. He’s facing down rival Riku Nevanpää, who thinks the party has drifted from its roots since it entered government. More here: http://bit.ly/2bixcAM

AUSTRIA — THINGS ARE GETTING INTERESTING: After the country’s constitutional court ruled the May 22 presidential election had to be rerun due to procedural mistakes, concerns are growing that Norbert Hofer of the far-right Freedom Party may secure enough votes to wrench victory away from former leader of the Green Party, Alexander Van der Bellen. More here about the situation in Austria: http://bit.ly/2biX7cU

KOSOVO-MONTENEGRO — PARLIAMENT TO VOTE ON BORDER IN WEEKS: MPs will vote on whether to accept a border demarcation agreement with Montenegro, a key requirement for EU membership talks, on September 1. Glauk Konjufca, an opposition MP from the Vetevendosje Party, let off tear gas in the chamber in protest. More here: http://bit.ly/2b170ZQ