Saturday, December 17, 2016

7" snow on the ground at St. Cloud.9 F. high Saturday in St. Cloud.24 F. average high on December 17.26 F. high on December 17, 2016.

December 18, 1923: Southern Minnesota experiences a 'heat wave'. Temperatures rose into the 60s at New Ulm and St. Peter.December 18, 1917: Milaca has its fifty-ninth consecutive day with no precipitation.

Frostbite Alert - Coldest Day of the Winter?

-20F
with a wind chill of -40F? If this was anywhere else the governor might
be calling out the National Guard, opening warming centers; evacuating
random Floridians who can't handle an arctic spanking.

Minnesotans?
We thumb our collective frostbitten noses at the cold. I'm taking my
youngest son to see a Vikings game. Many will go to church, stores and
area malls. Others will play in the cold. I find that endearing and
awe-inspiring. Today will bring out your inner weather pioneer.

But
take the chill seriously. A Wind Chill Warning means exposed skin can
become frostbitten in under 10 minutes. Multiple layers, cover your face
and take in the 3-D Siberian IMAX experience. Admission is free.

Squeaky
snow underfoot and ice crystals up your nose with today's (rare)
subzero high give way to drippy icicles this week with a streak of 20s
and 30s. A coating of slush is possible Wednesday, but I don't see big storms between now and Christmas.

Parkas
return in a week, but not as cold as this. Today's weather would
probably kill most ordinary Americans. Here it's just another day.

Serious Wind Chills.
All the models we track show a chill factor between -36F and -44F this
morning at 8 AM. Tempted to sleep in until Tuesday. Source: Aeris
Enterprise.

Thaw 48 Hours Away.
Once again there is fairly tight model alignment and agreement on the
pace and strength of the next warming trend: 30s likely by Tuesday,
which should feel like a dream.

Moderating Temperatures.
In spite of another cold jab for Minnesota and the Upper Midwest next
weekend (just in time for Christmas Day) temperatures trend generally
milder for the USA over the next couple of weeks. 384-hour GFS 2-meter
temperature forecast: NOAA and Tropicaltidbits.com.

10-Day Predicted Snowfall.
At the rate we're going a big chunk of the USA may enjoy a white
Christmas, defined as 1" or more of snow on the ground. NOAA's GFS
guidance shows significant snows for northern and western Texas into the
Ozarks and Mid South.

Friday Snowfall Totals. About 4-7" of powder fell across most of the metro, less over central Minnesota. NOAA has a complete list of snowfall totals here.

First Winter of "Average Snowfall" in 3 Years?
We'll see, but at the rate we're going I wouldn't be at all surprised
to see us pick up 55-65" or more of snow by April. This year there seems
to be more than enough cold air in place to make snow lovers happy.

Cold Temperatures Kill More Americans Than Hot Ones, CDC Data Shows. Some interesting statistics, courtesy of The Washington Post's Wonkblog: "...With
heat, there may be a “threshold” temperature beyond which the body's
temperature regulating system essentially breaks down. If the
temperature is below that threshold (which likely varies between
individuals), your body is essentially good to go. It's only when
ambient temperatures surpass that point that mortality risks come into
play. With cold temperatures, on the other hand, the authors of the
Lancet study posit that it seems to produce negative health effects in a
fairly linear fashion. There's no threshold; rather, the colder it
gets, the more trouble your body has adapting..."

4 Ways to Beat the Winter Blues.nextavenue has some very good advice; here's an excerpt: "...When
Carol complained of Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) — also known as
the winter blues — her doctor gave her a brochure about a company that
makes several varieties of high-powered therapy lights and lamps. “A
light box mimics outdoor light. Researchers believe this type of light
causes a chemical change in the brain that lifts your mood and eases
other symptoms of SAD,” says the Mayo Clinic. A light box may be an
effective treatment on its own or, the Mayo Clinic adds, “in combination
with an antidepressant medication or psychotherapy.”

Think you may suffer from SAD? The Mayo Clinic lists these symptoms:• Irritability• Tiredness or low energy• Problems getting along with other people• Hypersensitivity to rejection..."5 Ways To Make Sure Your Parents Are Safe in Bad Weather. It pays to be paranoid, especially with older parents; here's a clip from PBS nextavenue: "...Power
outages can easily occur in winter and summer weather so it’s important
that older adults know what to do and not do when the power is out. For
example, I make sure that my dad has a good number of non-perishable
food items and bottled water on hand so he’ll have plenty to eat if we
can’t get to the store. But my husband and I have stressed that he
should never try to heat up those non-perishables using his camping
stove. As this piece from Today.com explains, because of the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning, no one should ever “burn charcoal or use gasoline- or propane-powered equipment inside [the] home...”First White Christmas in 3 Years for the Twin Cities.
Hard to believe (staring out the window now) but there was only a trace
of snow on the ground last year, and 2014. The last white Christmas
(defined as an inch of snow or more at MSP International on December 25)
was back in 2013, when we woke up to 9". There should be more than that
this year. Santa is pleased.

Cold Weather Perspective. Here's an excerpt from this week's installment of Minnesota WeatherTalk, courtesy of Mark Seeley: "...In
addition to the added snow cover, the trend for below normal
temperatures has continued this week, now 9 consecutive days across most
of the state. This is the longest spell of cooler than normal
temperatures since mid-February of 2015. Some northern Minnesota climate
stations fell to -20°F or colder this week, including Georgetown (Clay
County), Orr (St Louis County), and Camp Norris (Lake of the Woods
County). Snow cover around the state ranges from as little as 2 inches
to over 12 inches in many northern counties. Despite the snow cover,
frost depths in the soil have progressed over the past week and now
range from 6 to 12 inches in most areas. Ice cover on area lakes is
increasing as well with reports ranging mostly from 2 to 4 inches, but
caution is still advised not to venture out on the ice yet..."

A Minnesota Warm Front.
After a subzero Sunday relief takes the form of 20s and 30s. The sound
of dripping icicles by Tuesday afternoon will be a soothing balm for the
soul. Today? Yukon Boot Camp. ECMWF numbers: WeatherBell.

Not Ripe for Major Storms Close to the New Year.
Of course this can change over time, but right now GFS guidance does
not suggest a high amplitude pattern capable of spinning up big storms
around New Year's Eve. In fact that pattern for the last few days of
2016 looks unusually mild for much of the USA.

Positive Phase of NAO = Milder Phase.
A temporary strengthening of the polar vortex winds swirling around the
Northern Hemisphere will confine the coldest air north of the USA for
much of the next 2 weeks. There will be more cold intrusions, just not
as numbing as the brutal airmass impacting the USA today.

Warm Bias in January?
My confidence levels are very low, because NOAA's CFSv2 climate model
keeps flip-flopping back and forth between cold and mild solutions. NOAA
CPC is predicting colder and wetter than average for the northern tier
of the USA into March. January temperature anomalies above: WeatherBell.

3rd Warmest - 3rd Wettest Year on Record for MSP.
3.4F warmer than the 30 year average and nearly 9" wetter than average,
2016 was a warm and soggy year. Payback was inevitable.

Large Regions of U.S. Damaged by Drought in 2016. Here's the intro to a story at The Wall Street Journal: "Droughts sparked
deadly wildfires, killed tens of millions of trees and damaged crops
and livestock in large regions of the U.S. in 2016. Major
regional droughts hit the U.S. this year in the Southeast,
California and New England—and all developed differently. But changes
in the earth’s climate mean regional droughts and other “extreme events
are going to be more common than in the past,” said Brian Fuchs,
climatologist at the Nation Drought Mitigation Center at the University
of Nebraska—Lincoln..."

Photo credit: "Scorched cars and trailers burned by the Blue Cut fire in August line a residential street in Phelan, Calif." Photo: Noah Berger/Associated Press.

Report Offers Roadmap for Overhaul of U.S. Electrical Grid. Midwest Energy News has the story: "A
new report by a team of engineers, scientists and researchers at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology offers a roadmap for the redesign
of one of history’s most critical inventions. The power grid – named the
greatest engineering feat of the 20th century by the National Academy of Engineering – is in need of an upgrade, according to “Utility of the Future,”
released Thursday. Designed for last century’s rigid, analog and
centralized world, the grid must now be recalibrated for today’s
flexible, digital and decentralized landscape..." (Map source: FEMA, Wikipedia).Something Americans Can Agree On. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from Robert Redford at TIME: "...There
are not many things the vast majority of Americans agree on. The
election certainly reminded us of this fact. In an increasingly divided
country, it is becoming harder and harder to find common ground,
particularly surrounding the issues of energy development and climate change. One of the few issues with strong bipartisan support is, surprisingly, solar power. A recent poll found nearly nine in 10 Americans
support the expansion of solar power. Among all the energy sources, it
has the highest favorability rating. That’s for good reason..." (Photo credit: Solar City).

Will Elon Musk Be The Champion Cleantech Needs at the White House?Greentech Media has the article; here's a clip: "...Where
Musk could be most effective as a Trump adviser is in advocating for
continued investments in cleantech research and development at the
Department of Energy. Among many other things, the DOE has played an
instrumental role in bringing down the cost of lithium-ion batteries and
helping to develop the next generation of battery technologies.
Companies like Tesla stand to benefit from government-led innovation and
government-trained talent pool. However, it's unclear what kind of
policy advice Musk's "go-it-alone" attitude will translate into. Tesla's
leadership frequently touts the company's abilities, like cutting battery costs
faster than projections. So it's possible that Musk will argue that
entrepreneurship is the true source of innovation, not the state..." (Image: Investopedia).

Old Jobs That No Longer Exist. Some professions get disrupted faster than others. Check this out from Holy Kaw! "Chances
are, if you’re in the town crier or resurrectionist business,
opportunities have been few and far between in the last century or two.
As we look to the future to predict what jobs the robot armies will
overtake, it’s refreshing to glance back the other direction in time to
see where we’ve been..."

Every State Had a Top 10 Warmest Year in 2016. WXshift has the story; here's an excerpt: "Like the previous two years, 2016 is on pace to be the hottest year on record globally.
In the U.S., the average temperature for the year is on track to be the
second hottest in 122 years of records. In this analysis, we drilled
down to the local level and examined how hot each of these cities has
been in 2016 through the end of November...."

Map credit: "Each of the lower 48 states is having one of its 10 hottest years on record." Credit: Climate Central

Conservatives Can Be Convinced to Fight Climate Change With a Specific Kind of Language. Quartz has the story: "...Progressive politicians often campaign with the promise of a better future. But conservatives recognize that pledging to restore a golden past resonates with their electorate.
Environmentalists may want to consider using that to their advantage: a
new study shows that focusing on the past is effective in getting
conservatives (who are much more likely than liberals to deny climate change)
to act to protect the planet. Specifically, the key is using
pro-environment messaging that focuses on preserving a greener past,
rather than averting future climate disasters, according to the study, published Dec. 12 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences..."

Scientists Are Tying More Extreme Events to a Changing Climate. Here's an excerpt from The Washington Post: "A new report,
published Thursday as a special edition of the Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, provides some of the best evidence yet that
climate change already has a hand in our worst weather. Itpoints
to a variety of extreme weather events in 2015 that were likely
influenced by global warming, from heat waves in Australia to heavy rain
in China to raging wildfires in Alaska.
The report, examining research on two dozen weather events, was
compiled and edited by scientists from the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, as well as the Met Office Hadley Centre for
Climate Prediction and Research..."

Photo credit: "The setting sun is partially obscured by smoke from an out of control 2015 wildfire on the Parks Highway near Willow, Alaska." (Reuters/Mat-Su Borough/Stefan Hinman).

Explaining Extreme Events From a Climate Perspective.
How much can be attributed to a warmer, wetter climate vs. natural
variability? Here's a link to more science, courtesy of the AMS, the American Meteorological Society: "This
fifth edition of explaining extreme events of the previous year (2015)
from a climate perspective continues to provide evidence that climate
change is altering some extreme event risk. Without exception, all the
heat-related events studied in this year’s report were found to have
been made more intense or likely due to human-induced climate change,
and this was discernible even for those events strongly influenced by
the 2015 El Niño. Furthermore, many papers in this year’s report
demonstrate that attribution science is capable of separating the
effects of natural drivers including the strong 2015 El Niño from the
influences of long-term human-induced climate change."

Climate Change Worsened Deadly Heatwaves Last Year. Following up on the recent report on climate attribution, here is more perspective at USA TODAY: "From
Europe to India to Australia, climate change worsened several deadly
heat waves around the world in 2015, according to a report released
Thursday. "We’re seeing mounting evidence that climate change is making
heat waves more extreme in many regions around the world,” said report
lead editor Stephanie C. Herring, a scientist with the National Centers
for Environmental Information at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) . In all, 10 extreme hot streaks last year,
including heat waves in Europe, Egypt, India, Pakistan, China,
Indonesia, Japan and Australia, were worsened by climate change..."

Scientists: Strong Evidence that Human-Caused Climate Change Intensified 2015 Heat Waves. NOAA provides more context: "Human-caused
climate change very likely increased the severity of heat waves that
plagued India, Pakistan, Europe, East Africa, East Asia, and Australia
in 2015 and helped make it the warmest year on record, according to new
research published today in a special edition of the Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society. The fifth edition of Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspectiveoffsite link
presents 25 peer-reviewed research papers that examine episodes of
extreme weather of 2015 over five continents and two oceans. It features
the research of 116 scientists from 18 countries analyzing both
historical observations and changing trends along with model results to
determine whether and how climate change may have influenced the event..." (Image credit: NOAA).