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Friday, January 31

Today & tonight will be quiet & mainly cloudy with temperatures a little above average this afternoon, & pretty mild for this time of year tonight. Highs will be in the mid 30s today, & tonight lows will be dropping to between 25 & 30.

On Saturday, an area of developing low pressure will be pulling a warm front into & through the region during the day, which will likely trigger a little snow to develop during the late morning/early afternoon that should quickly change to a little rain later Saturday afternoon into the night. Very late Saturday night into Sunday morning any rain will likely end as snow that may accumulate a coating to an inch or two across the region. It will turn blustery & colder Super Bowl Sunday with a few snow showers & squalls developing off Lake Ontario during the afternoon, but no real significant snows are expected to round out the weekend. Temperatures will drop out of the 30s & into the 20s during the day Sunday with a gusty wind.

The start of next week looks cold & sunny, but clouds will increase Tuesday with some snow, possibly changing to an icy mix will probably come in Tuesday night into Wednesday. The track of the storm will dictate, as it always does, the precipitation type & amounts. Stay tuned over the next several days for updates on this storm.

8-12 is a good range just based off of this map and others, although models tend to do even worse with QPF than they do with track. No offense to John, but "some snow" seems like a pretty big understatement to me. Personally I think this will end up a lot like last year's post Christmas storm, perhaps a touch further north and with lesser snowfall rates, but also somewhat longer lasting.

She's a beauty ain't she? And she shall be dubbed Nika by The Weather Channel. Nika translates to "goddess of victory." Could this be an indicator of what's to come? Probably not, but it's fun to dream...

"WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT STORM ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THIS LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA. EC AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPS ALOFT...GFS IS A LITTLE WARMER AND IMPLIES A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER ON WEDNESDAY...EC IS NOW COLDER WITH ALL SNOW. BOTH MODELS PLACE A STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ALONG THIS DEFORMATION ZONE...AND WITH THE SO-CALLED "WRAP AROUND" SNOW PATTERN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW."

Latest GFS has next weeks storm just to our West. Very similar to this weekends week storm. If this happens I am afraid we are in for snow then rain and then back to snow. It will not be a complete snow event.

Southward she goes on the models again. Wobbling in all directions by about 50 miles per run at this juncture. Based on the past several run cycles I have strong doubts that we'll see a similar track to the weekend system. It was never all that similar in the first place, as the weekend storm doesn't incur a coastal transfer while the midweek one does. Pretty confident it'll end up much further south than the weekend storm and the bulk of the region will see mostly, if not entirely snow. The one afterwards could be interesting for us as well. These are good times for snow lovers in my estimation.

I want to thank you for joining this blog. You are very knowledgeable about the models and weather in general and you bring intelligent insight to this blog. I wish I was that knowledgeable. Are you a Meteorology student? If not you should be. I studied at Brockport for about a year as Weather has always been my passion. I had to leave the program for personal reasons but regret not finishing.

Where is HP and Weather guy? I miss their insight.

One day we should have a BLOG get together and meet everyone. I think people would want to ring my neck for being so negative in the past. I am really trying to change that. I just get so disappointed when we miss storms.

Anyway. I am becoming more and more confident that the storm Tuesday/Wednesday will be significant and 12" or more are not out of the question when it is all said and one. The storm for Saturday/Sunday of nest weekend looks even bigger right now but we will wait and see on that one.

I would like to see the Euro start to run in line with the GFS as far as moisture goes as the Euro does not want to pump in deep gulf moisture. Still a nice snowstorm either way, but if the GFS wins the battle with a track that's a tad more south, we could be in for a good one.

CCC has been right on the money so far and VERY informative, I have enjoyed reading his new posts. A significant snowfall for our area is looking more likely with every new model run. The latest GFS runs have trended towards an all snow event for the area and a solid snowfall at that. It is to early to get overly excited but, Warning criteria snows are beginning to look more likely with every new run. No need to look into next weekend possibilities with a significant event possible Tuesday late - Wednesday.

The GFS, ECMWF and the GEM are all very similar with track timing and intensity with slight differences in energy transfer and storm precipitation totals. Wednesday morning commute looks to be smack in the middle of the storms peek snowfall intensity, could be a nasty morning Wednesday.

I'm no expert, so I will defer to those that are. Will there be much lake enhancement or will the wind direction be more east? Will there be lake effect for Rochester behind the storm or will the winds have a more westerly component? Is the storm going to be a quick hitter or take it's time?

No expert either so can not answer about LES but it will be a quick hitter. Where are CCC, Weahterguy, Snowdog and HP with their latest opinions based on 12z GFS? Maybe they are waiting for next EURO run at 1:00pm?

I have to confess something again though...I'm not exactly new here, I was posting anonymously for a few years. Yup, I was an anonymous coward until just recently, but then I saw the light and moved over to the realm of righteous name-itude. I am not a meteorology student, but I may pursue meteorology if this whole computer engineering thing doesn't pan out. Until then meteorology remains a leisurely passion.

No notable changes in the 12z model suite from previous runs for the midweek storm. I'm not feeling much lake enhancement considering the storm's quick movement and relative lack of mid level cold. Regarding the one afterwards, both the GFS and Euro bomb a storm down to 980-ish mb in differing locations. The GFS moves it through the central lakes while the Euro takes it off the Delmarva Peninsula. That one is strictly on a "wait and see" basis, but at this point I feel as though an offshore track is somewhat less likely given the teleconnections.

I'll have more on Sunday but the track of the 850mb low is always important. The track that's progged now would indicated snow over to a wintry mix. Too many uncertainties which is why I lay dormant until we are closer to these storms occurring.

Latest EURO runs has 850s not getting above 32 degrees for places north of I-80. I think it is all snow for those north of thruway for sure. However maybe 6-8 tops. Heavier snow shifted SE on EURO. Not looking like a big event IMO. Not sure what CCC, HP, Weatherguy and Snowdog think?

QPF has been bouncing around like crazy with this storm, especially on the Euro model. I do know that this is a storm where the 850 low is displaced well to the NW of the surface low, which is why the GFS, for example, has such a broad snow swath.

The NWS out of Buffalo just confirmed that this will not be a big deal for Rochester. They state that the snow will be under warning criteria. Oh well. We can just keep hoping for a good snowstorm around here.

QPF FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE UNDER WARNING RANGEBUT WILL BE ATTENDED TO CLOSELY IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

Yep Snowdog this one has weakened quickly. 2-4 with sleet mix if lucky. One again that is why he is Rochester's Most Accurate. He sat back knowing CCC, B, Weatherguy, HP were all acting the fool with their excitement. Oh well on to more false help with next weekends blizzard.

There is more drama on this page than in an episode of Glee. Snowdog, there is no need to jump off the deep end with every new NWS report, model run and Anonymous posting. It is NOT set in stone either way what will happen Tuesday night and Wednesday. I still see a SIGNIFICANT 6+ snowfall possible. To early to jump to conclusions.

That's like the exact opposite of "confirmed," in fact it leaves the door wide open for additional changes. Remember, they said the same thing about sub warning amounts for a pair of other storms that later became warning caliber storms. I think we all remember the 4-6 inch forecast they put out for the mid December storm (hint: it busted way low). And as for the NAM, well one thing I've learned about that model is that it's about as trustworthy as a downtown crack dealer at this range. It tends to be over amplified and too far NW with systems late in runs as well. And as of now it is well to the NW of the going consensus. We shall continue to watch and see what happens. I continue to believe that we'll see a more substantial snowfall for reasons I've already brought up, but if I'm forced to fold I will. Mother Nature is the final arbiter after all, and there's a lot of ways she can throw us all for a loop, even the most knowledgeable among us.

If the second system fails to produce for us then so be it. I'd rather remain hopeful about it while its outcome is still in question, as opposed to punting it on 1st down. We're on 2nd and 5 with the first one. And I will gladly take overzealous excitement over constant mopiness any day, makes for a much better atmosphere :)

The NWS still doesn't hold a candle to that Henry Margusity rube over at AccuWeather. One day he's all in for a big snow pattern in the East, then a few days later he's pushing it all the way back to Wisconsin. Compare his blog posts from the 28th and 31st to see what I mean. Always humping the NAO to death too, constantly going on and on about how it can't snow in the East if the NAO isn't negative. But maybe he has a point, I mean it's not like we've gotten several substantial Eastern snowstorms with a persistently neutral/positive NAO or anything...