Abstract

Among the many factors influencing agricultural and forest productivity worldwide, the effects of weather and climate are of considerable importance. Anomalous fluctuations of climate, particularly thermal conditions, can have a marked effect in high latitude regions where activities are already constrained by low temperatures and a short growing season. Moreover, a consideration of possible future climatic changes (e.g. those that may result from increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide) adds a further dimension to the problem of assessing the regional sensitivity of crop production to climate.

In many regions, the impacts of a climatic event extend well beyond the direct, physical response of crops. For instance, the resulting changes in crop production may affect farm incomes, regional food-based industries, employment and prices, with the ripple-effects filtering through to other sectors of an economy and society.

This paper outlines a methodology for assessing the sensitivity of crop productivity to climate and shows how this may be elaborated to include a consideration of the economic and social implications of crop productivity changes. The approach uses a hierarchy of models, each one representing a stage in the cascade of responses induced by an anomalous climatic event. In particular, three sets of models are identified - of climatic changes, of climate impacts on potential and actual yield, and of the down-stream economic and social effects of these. By considering a range of credible future climatic scenarios, it is possible to produce estimates of impact and to examine a range of adjustments that might be of interest to the agricultural planner or decision-maker.

The methodology is being tested in ten countries as part of a two year IIASA/UNEP research project.