EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 4/23/12

The rumor mill continues with more stories of China buying old crop corn.On Friday we had rumors of Brazil slowing/stopping soybean exports but they quickly denounced these as false.Colder weather in the forecast also played a role in today’s corn and wheat strength.Weekly export inspections were only 12.005 million bu for soybeans compared to the expectations at 22.5.Corn export inspections were 29.386 (34.5 expected) and wheat was 24.391 (21.5 expected).

Weekly Crop Progress showed corn at 28 percent planted vs the 5-year average of 15 percent.Illinois is now 59% planted compared to 17% on average!Overall the corn crop is 9% emerged compared to 2% on average.

Soybean planting progress is at 6% complete which is above the 5-year average of 2%.Winter wheat is 42% headed compared to 15% on average.Winter wheat crop condition lost 1% in the good-excellent category but is still at 63%.Spring wheat is way ahead of schedule at 58% planted compared to 19% on average.I didn’t see enough changes on this report to have any major market moves on the overnight open from this.

One important thing to watch is the spread between July – November soybeans.We did see more old-crop soybean sales to "unknown destinations" this morning before the open which helped that spread trade back above $1.00.This spread gained ground despite the sell-off in the flat price.We will have to continue to watch exports and crush for direction in this spread.Tomorrow morning we will have the STATS Canada report out before the market opens.To receive a free trial of the EHedger research including hedge recommendations, please sign up using the link below. Thanks and have a great week!

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