13/05/2018

We Will Prevent Catastrophic Climate Change!!

CleanTechnica - Kurt Lowder
Did the title anger you or make the
hair on the back of your neck stand up? Does it seem foolish or careless
to make that statement since people could become complacent about
climate change?
Perhaps. However, this article is not so much about definitively making this statement, but to question if maybe soon we should.
Of late, I feel increasingly confident that environmentalists will be able to make that claim soon. A few experts, like Tony Seba and Ramez Naam, are starting to make this claim. I have been weary of it, but increasingly I think they are right.

Why? Because the exponential growth of renewable energy and energy
efficiency would require an act of war to stop it. Wind, solar, and
batteries are all dropping in price with no sight in end. Additionally,
self-driving electric taxis are just around the corner, meaning
eventually we will need 80% fewer cars on the road.
Moreover, I think it is likely that,
to be effective environmental advocates, at some point we have to start
saying something like, “We will prevent catastrophic climate change.”
Why? Because many people for their own sanity have to ignore the fear
caused by climate change to simply get through their day. On the other
hand, many are desperate for a “Yes, we can!” attitude.
As a refresher, allow me to give an
example of how quickly renewable energy prices have dropped. I began
following solar closely in 2014 when people across the world marveled
how the record low price for a solar farm fell below 6 cents per kWh. In
November 2017, the record low fell to 1.77 cents per kWh.
This project is not yet built, but is on its way. I almost feel like a
ticker tape parade is in order for solar dropping below two cents per
kWh. It was only a few short years ago that I saw mainstream projections
that this feat would not occur until 2050.
At least in the USA, we have a large
number of people who do not think climate change is real or think that
it is something minor and there is no urgency.
Roughly speaking, the rest of the
population thinks climate change is real and, generally, many have an
understanding that it is very serious. Nevertheless, some large portion
of those people have become fatalistic. They feel there is nothing they
can do about it, and for their own sanity, they choose to ignore it.
These people are potential early adopters, but they feel they cannot
make a difference to this massive calamity.
The human mind evolved in small
hunter-gatherer groups of fewer than 150 individuals. The human mind is
not meant to handle 24/7 global news. Most people are struggling to just
get through their daily lives and are simply not equipped to take on
the challenge of climate change. The drumbeat coming out of the
environmental community is that if things to do not change, civilization
is likely to collapse — that’s hard to deal with.
My hypothesis is that if we begin say
something like, “We will prevent Catastrophic Climate Change,” two
important things will happen. First, over time, the deniers will become
less intense and dogmatic in their opposition to renewable and energy
efficiency. Solar and wind power have high approval numbers, but most
people have no idea how much the price of these technologies have fallen. This message can help them to learn that.
Surprisingly, many deniers are all
for renewable energy if it is not subsidized. Frequently, they just shut
down when you try to explain externalities or fossil fuel subsidies to them. We might consider not even bringing up climate change to them. We might just instead focus on convincing them of the economic benefits of wind and solar along with the health benefits. To open their mind, it is crucial to state that subsidies for these technologies will soon come to an end.
The second thing that may happen is
people who do believe in climate change but are fatalistic about it can
finally begin to be active in supporting the solutions to climate
change. Even if they start out small, they can collectively make a large
difference.
We really only need a few more early
adopters for climate change solutions until they reach the point where
they become overwhelmingly the best economic decision to make
everywhere.
For example, maybe you cannot
convince someone to buy an EV, but maybe you can convince them to
refrain from buying a new car anytime soon, because EVs will be very
cheap in just a few short years. Of course, automated electric taxis
will be available soon and they an affordable, safe, and enjoyable
method of transportation.
I think it is important that
environmental activists spend some time out of our echo chambers. At
times, we tend to be angry and self-righteous about our understanding of
climate change. I think in many ways we need a “keep it simple, stupid”
mentality.
Too often, I try to win the argument.
Having to be right is a character defect of mine that gets me in
trouble far too often. It is an easy mistake to fall into when
considering the horrors that climate change present.
I think we need to be humble in our
environmental advocacy. It is a misconception that being humble means
being weak. Confidence is actually a part of humility. Soon, or even
now, I think we need to confidently state, “We will prevent catastrophic
climate change. Moreover, our efforts to do so will greatly increase
our standard of living.”
Throughout history, an inspiring lesson is often repeated. Societies
that face difficulties often surpass those that do not. Take the Aztecs
for example, who were forced to settle in the unwanted swamps of
Mesoamerica because that was the only territory that was available to
them. To grow enough food, they built artificial islands
called Chinampas, which floated in the swamp and in effect watered
themselves. In facing this adversity to survive, they had to innovate.
In the end, they became the most dominant civilization in their region —
in large part because they had to face this big challenge.
Think about how well Europe rebuilt itself after being decimated in WWII.
The whole world is coming together to face this challenge. Our linear
minds dictate to us that we are behind schedule, but we are catching up
fast. While environmental degradation is sad, I am in absolute awe of
our understanding of it and the efforts made to prevent it.
Jane Goodall in her book Hope for animals and their worldquoted
the maxim: “While there is life, there is hope.” The book details how
so many brilliant minds are working tirelessly to save our Earth. I
often watch this video clip when I need a resurgence of hope, and a reminder that we must have hope to succeed.