Magic Market Index for April 20th, 2018

Welcome to The Magic Market Index. This weekly article series documents the price changes of cards currently in print, and offers insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. This weekly article series covers all expansion sets and masterpiece series sets in Standard, from the time of their prerelease to the time of their rotation out of Standard. Promotional sets, special sets, pack foils, and non-set releases are not covered.

Dominaria is here, and our prerelease prices have been benchmarked. As is always the case, the set will settle downward over the next few weeks as we approach actual release. Presales drive inventory investment, but they can also be risky when the market is still figuring out the new release. Vendors start high to make sure they're not shortchanging themselves, then slowly lower their prices until they hit the sweet spot.

A lot is in flux, but let's take a closer look at the top three cards:

●Karn has come out of the gate swinging! He's currently the most expensive card in Standard, and for good reason. Unlike past incarnations of Karn, this version is extremely versatile and playable in a large variety of decks. His card engine slots well into any control or midrange deck, and his token making ability is versatile enough that even some aggro decks may come to run him. His tokens slowly grow without any outside help, but with Kaladesh around and Ixalan treasure tokens still abounding, it's quite easy to make these tokens a pummeling force in almost any deck.

●Mox Amber's price shouldn't be much of a surprise to anyone. Zero cost artifact mana always fetches a high price tag, even with a narrow condition such as this. This is the eighth Vintage-legal card to bare the name "Mox", and will have quite the legacy to live up to.

●History of Benalia packs a strong offense, but I suspect that this one is a bit inflated for the moment. White-X Aggro would have to hit the metagame hard, and fast, for History of Benalia to not decline decently in the coming weeks. White has very little aggro showing in the metagame going into Dominaria, so it would have to make instant converts out of a lot of people to continue it's price tag. History of Benalia might be the card to put the deck on the map, but it'll take a moment for things to solidify. The first real display of our new standard will be at Grand Prix Birmingham on May 10th. I suspect History will slowly retract until then.

The Pheonix's price is rekindling again, as red's dominance in the meta is thus far unanswered. Pheonix is present in over a quarter of the meta's top decks, and it will take Dominaria's Standard shift to break the stranglehold. Dominaria is threatening to do just that, however. The meta is expected to take a big shift, and I suspect Pheonix's dominance - and the price joined with it - will soon dwindle.

Carnage Tyrant and Growing Rites of Itlimoc were the only cards with significant change this week. All eyes are upon Dominaria, and Ixalan will see little change until we feel the real jolt coming from the new meta. This week is especially quiet, as Dominaria's prerelease has taken center stage and Standard has been put on hold for a week. Next week I expect to see more impact felt.

Amonkhet saw only background noise this week, as the current meta is in its death throws awaiting Dominaria. The booster box estimated value rose $4, but this is attributed to Invocations growth alone.

The Masterpiece buyouts that hit Inventions over the past few weeks have finally started to take a real hold on Invocations. Containment Priest's spike is beyond insane. It's literally over four times it's price last week, with a $100 value profit made almost overnight. Much like last week, the buyout is not an issue with just TCGPlayer being bought out. A search online found pretty much every single vendor without stock. Only TCGPlayer and eBay had listings, and all were around the price seen here.

Inventions has dodged much of the masterpiece frenzy in the past, but this appears to be no longer the case. I'm going to make a very unusual move for myself, and directly make a prediction: Counterspell will be one of the next coming targets. It's an eternal staple, its vendor stock is low, and it seems to be primed and ready for a move. Grab one now, or you might miss out.

Paradox Engine has risen again, more firmly securing its spot as Aether Revolt's top card. This set is slightly inflated at the moment, with a booster boxes expected value being well over its cost. Cards will be in turmoil as Dominaria takes hold, but overall prices for Aether Revolt will be forced to decline in the coming weeks.

Kaladesh has been very stagnant for a while. Again, its booster box value has risen from Inventions growth. While the set dipped slightly this week, larger price drops are assuredly coming to offset the booster box value versus price discrepancy.

The Inventions shenanigans continue. This week, the set gained $500 which puts it's four-week gain over $2000. If you missed us last week, I broke down the buyout advances this set is seeing.

Sol Ring took back the crown for the biggest Invention card this week. My kingdom for a ring.

Overall Summary

Most of the sets saw little movement, and not much to comment on. The reason is obvious: Dominaria. It will be the topic for the weeks to come. This weekend is its prerelease, and the new Standard meta will soon begin it's tumultuous unfolding. As this happens, expect to see some real changes to the other sets' tables. We've been in a fairly stagnant Standard for a while, but it's definitely looking like Dominaria will shake things up.