Thousands of Tokyo 2020 Olympic souvenirs face uncertain future

These are lonely times for thousands of souvenirs in dozens of Tokyo 2020 Olympic stores, which are drawing few customers with the postponed games more than a year away and facing an unclear future.

Tokyo 2020 official shop in the Shinjuku district of Tokyo.
Source: Associated Press

And they're worrying moments for Tokyo organisers, who hope to generate $100 million by selling 5,500 "licensed"products including official Olympic chopsticks, Olympic umbrellas, and large stuffed mascots that can go for almost NZ$325.

The pandemic and the uncertainty have emptied Olympic stores of customers. And one large question looms to increase the anxiety: Can the postponed games really take place?

Organising committee President Yoshiro Mori has said if they can't go ahead on July 23, 2021, they'll be canceled — not postponed again.

Strangely, a cancellation might stimulate souvenir sales, driving demand for memorabilia from the 2020 Olympics that didn't take place — not once, but twice — because of the pandemic. Conversely, pent-up demand might also spur sales if the games are finally held.

Olympics have been canceled in war years — 1916, 1940, and 1944 — but never for a virus.

"If there are no Tokyo Olympics in 2021, the value of the already created 2020 merchandise will increase, and increase even more rapidly if the existing product is removed from retail," David Carter said, who teaches sports business at the University of Southern California.

"The bottom line question being who will capture this official/unofficial revenue?"

"Many will view 2020 Tokyo merchandise as a novelty product representing all that 2020 stood for globally — a global conversation piece for those around the world," Mr Carter added.

Organisers and the International Olympic Committee maintain the games will be held, though many scientists and health experts argue they shouldn't go forward without a vaccine.

If they do go ahead, will athletes be quarantined first, and will fans be allowed to attend? What about packing 11,000 athletes from more than 200 countries and territories into the Athletes Village on Tokyo Bay? How will athletes train safely? And how will they travel the globe to qualifying events?

If there are no fans at the Olympics, what happens to projected income from ticket and merchandise sales, expected together to produce income of about NZ$1.6 billion for local organisers. Will fans who've already bought tickets — organisers say 7.8 million tickets were available — get refunds?

Dolls of the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic mascots, Miraitowa and Someity, on display at a Tokyo 2020 official shop.
Source: Associated Press

Tokyo organisers say almost 90 licensed souvenir shops were open around Japan at the end of April. It's unclear if all will continue to operate until the Olympics open in 14 1/2 months with online sales sure to remain.

"Provided sales remain adequate, it may be best to remain open — or at least partially open — until a resolution is more in focus," Mr Carter said.

"After all, that is still important revenue to be generated given the collective uncertainty."

Tokyo organisers and the IOC decided in March when the games were postponed until 2021 to keep the 2020 branding. This avoided scrapping tons of 2020 merchandise, which might have created a secondary market of discontinued 2020 items. It might also have driven the market for "knock-off" items that would cut into organising committee income.

Sponsors favored keeping the 2020 branding, which has been seen all over Tokyo for years — on billboards, on taxis and on subways. Local sponsorship deals are worth NZ$5.4 billion to the Tokyo organising committee — at least two times larger than any previous games.

Overall, Japan is officially spending NZ$20.5 billion to organise the games, though a government audit says it's twice that much. All but NZ$9.1 billion is public money.

Separately, the IOC has 14-long-term sponsors like Intel and Toyota that are reported to pay about NZ$162.8 million each to display the Olympic logo.

An Olympic shop in a Tokyo shopping mall, lined with dozens of shelves filled with t-shirts, caps, and stuffed animal mascots, was mostly devoid of customers over the weekend. Those who browsed were in no hurry to buy.