Opinion: The Pipe Pig

The Pipe Invitational has started and the surf is less than inspiring. The WSL must still be relieved; after four consecutive lay-days,they had milked the teat of world title scenarios dry.

In case you somehow missed it: If Medina makes the final, Filipe/Julian can suck eggs; if he places 3rd, they need to win, and; if Medina gets 5th or worse, the contenders would need to final.

Simple, clean, boring.

It’s made worse by the fact that - due the WSL seeding process - there is zero chance that Medina will meet either of the others before the final, and by then the title would have already been won.

If the WSL is trying to make their tour finale interesting,they’re doing it wrong; it’s not just the title that matters. There are untold qualification stories to be sifted through, there’s the whole Caio/Kelly/John wildcard conundrum they’re avoiding, there’s a meaningless rookie of the year title,and there’s the not-quite-a-world-title race for the Triple Crown.

Give me a few minutes, and I’ll put lipstick on this Pipe Masters pig. Maybe, just maybe, we can still redeem this flaccid Pipe beast.

The Title

Forget the numbers; how can we make it interesting? Here are two scenarios:

The closest we could come to a true finals showdown would before Medina to lose the first semi-final, while Filipe and Julian to battle it out in the next heat for a shot at a maiden title. Even then, the Filipe/Julian winner would have to best Medina’s victor in the final to claim the season. You’d get a rush of interest at Gabriel’s loss, immediately followed by a head-to-head between the two contenders, followed by a world title decided in the Pipe final.

Alternatively, you could have Medina fall early, and enjoy the round-by-round tension of watching Filipe and Julian attempt to reach the necessary final. Would they fold under the pressure? Would they grab the opportunity with both hands? This scenario also offers the possibility of seeing Filipe/Julian meet for a winner-takes-all, semi-final battle royal for a breakthrough world title. Sure, the final itself would be a hollow victory lap, but maybe it could be against a feel-good underdog. I hear Kelly Slater may be entering...

I know you can’t script this, but a little tension wouldn’t hurt.

Qualification

With the QS wrapped up for the year, Pipe provides us with the only remaining qualification variables. Before you can even say, “Who is Deivid Silva?”, Pipe will be breaking the hearts and careers of R2 surfers below the cut. For those who don’t play fantasy or gamble, schadenfreude is a game that is free, easy, and well-suited to Pipeline.

Right now, Kanoa doesn’t need his QS spot, as he’s guaranteed a place via the CT already. Griffin, Jesse and Zeke could all join him in rendering their QS results redundant with a decent Pipe showing. That leaves Jack Freestone and Ethan Ewing on the bubble, praying for results to go their way, and death-riding any spoilers with voodoo eyes from the sand.

If you check the table below, you can see that most tour surfers are actually still in the running (pink) for a 2019 tour spot. An unlikely Pipe win for Miguel Pupo could see him qualify with only 9 events to his name. Perpetual 2018 also-rans such as Michael February and Ian Gouveia could also make the cut with an appearance in the Pipe final. Use this as your Pipe bingo card, and ride the waves of salty tears as each surfer suffers the dawning reality of their inadequacy.

Surfer

Points

Ranking

If 13th

If 9th

If 5th

If 3rd

If 2nd

If 1st

Gabriel
Medina

56190

1

56190

56190

57235

58575

60290

62490

Julian
Wilson

51450

2

51450

53485

54530

55870

57585

59785

Filipe
Toledo

51450

2

51450

53485

54530

55870

57585

59785

Italo
Ferreira

43070

4

43070

45105

46150

47490

49205

51405

Owen
Wright

35570

5

36815

38850

39895

41235

42950

45150

Jordy
Smith

32020

6

32020

34055

35100

36440

38155

40355

Wade
Carmichael

30670

7

31915

33950

34995

36335

38050

40250

Kanoa
Igarashi

29275

8

30520

32555

33600

34940

36655

38855

Michel
Bourez

29115

9

30360

32395

33440

34780

36495

38695

Conner
Coffin

28390

10

29635

31670

32715

34055

35770

37970

Kolohe
Andino

27600

11

27600

29635

30680

32020

33735

35935

Mikey
Wright

27275

12

28940

30975

32020

33360

35075

37275

Willian
Cardoso

27190

13

28435

30470

31515

32855

34570

36770

Michael
Rodrigues

25215

14

25215

27250

28295

29635

31350

33550

Adrian
Buchan

23945

15

25190

27225

28270

29610

31325

33525

Jeremy
Flores

23275

16

24520

26555

27600

28940

30655

32855

Adriano
de Souza

22925

17

24170

26205

27250

28590

30305

32505

Ezekiel
Lau

22820

18

24065

26100

27145

28485

30200

32400

Sebastian
Zietz

22525

19

23770

25805

26850

28190

29905

32105

Griffin
Colapinto

22030

20

23275

25310

26355

27695

29410

31610

Frederico
Morais

19645

21

20890

22925

23970

25310

27025

29225

Yago
Dora

18400

22

19645

21680

22725

24065

25780

27980

Joan
Duru

16930

23

18175

20210

21255

22595

24310

26510

Matt
Wilkinson

15910

24

17155

19190

20235

21575

23290

25490

Tomas
Hermes

15670

25

16915

18950

19995

21335

23050

25250

Connor
O'Leary

15320

26

16565

18600

19645

20985

22700

24900

Patrick
Gudauskas

15215

27

16460

18495

19540

20880

22595

24795

Joel
Parkinson

14530

28

15775

17810

18855

20195

21910

24110

Jesse
Mendes

12040

29

13285

15320

16365

17705

19420

21620

Ian
Gouveia

12040

29

13285

15320

16365

17705

19420

21620

Michael
February

11840

31

13085

15120

16165

17505

19220

21420

Mick
Fanning

11500

32

13165

15200

16245

17585

19300

21500

John
John Florence

10795

33

12040

14075

15120

16460

18175

20375

Ryan
Callinan

9465

34

11130

13165

14210

15550

17265

19465

Kelly
Slater

9445

35

10690

12725

13770

15110

16825

19025

Miguel
Pupo

8930

36

10175

12210

13255

14595

16310

18510

Keanu
Asing

7515

37

8760

10795

11840

13180

14895

17095

Wiggolly
Dantas

6255

38

7500

9535

10580

11920

13635

15835

Caio
Ibelli

3780

39

5025

7060

8105

9445

11160

13360

Injuries

Speaking of tears, there is a Shakespearian tragedy about to befall a legitimate* tour surfer in 2019. John John, Caio and Kelly have all suffered genuine* injuries this season, with each of them presenting the WSL with a reasonable* case for earning one of the two commissioner’s permanent wildcard places on tour next year.

Parko, after surfing through the past 2 seasons on cruise control, is pulling his competitive finger out and giving a fuck one last time.If he does well enough at Pipe, Parko will not only equal Andy’s record of 4 Triple Crowns, but he’ll also shore up an unwanted place on tour for 2019. Joel can go out a winner, while all three cripples get their free ride next year. Genius.

If Joel falls short, they could still offer the ‘sponsor’s wildcard’ place to Kelly at each 2019 event without an actual sponsor, which seems to be most events in 2019. Or Kelly could just win Pipe. To hell with wildcard charity.

* these are fluid terms

Rookie of the Year

Sorry, I can’t really dress this up. It’s meaningless.Besides, Wade basically has it wrapped up; if he makes R4, he’s unbeatable.Besides, what is the ROTY anyway? Can you name any previous ROTY winners? Did it help Connor O this year? Or Dion Atkinson a few years back? Is there a massive cash bonus? Is Kekoa Bacalso still living off the spoils of his ROTY title?

Triple Crown

At 31st place, Michel Bourez can still mathematically take out the Triple Crown with a Pipe win. In fact, there are 15 surfers in the Pipe event who have a shot. The WSL have again shit the bed with their coverage of the Triple Crown series, despite all 3 events being their own.

See the breakdown below:

Hawaiian
Pro

Vans
World Cup

Points
after a Pipe win

Pos.

Name

Country

Total Points

Prize
Money

Position

Points

Position

Points

1

Mendes,Jesse

BRA

13300

$21,500

5

5300

2

8000

23300

2

Parkinson,Joel

AUS

12300

$32,650

1

10000

17

2300

22300

3

Lau,Ezekiel

HAW

12100

$32,150

25

2100

1

10000

22100

5

Smith,Jordy

ZAF

8900

$10,500

13

3600

5

5300

18900

9

Duru,Joan

FRA

7800

$11,600

33

1100

3

6700

17800

10

Colapinto,Griffin

USA

7400

$9,600

33

1100

4

6300

17400

12

Gudauskas,Patrick

USA

6200

$7,100

7

5100

33

1100

16200

14

Ferreira,Italo

BRA

6100

$7,150

17

2300

9

3800

16100

15

Pupo,Miguel

BRA

6100

$7,150

9

3800

17

2300

16100

16

Moniz,Seth

HAW

6100

$6,750

7

5100

49

1000

16100

18

Toledo,Filipe

BRA

5900

$6,650

9

3800

25

2100

15900

21

Igarashi,Kanoa

JPN

4700

$5,600

13

3600

33

1100

14700

24

Callinan,Ryan

AUS

4400

$4,800

25

2100

17

2300

14400

25

O'Leary,Connor

AUS

4400

$4,800

25

2100

17

2300

14400

31

Bourez,Michel

PYF

4200

$4,300

25

2100

25

2100

14200

So, that’s the situation. Other than the forecast improving, or surfers pulling out individual brilliance, these are the stories the WSL should be telling. How’s the Pipe pig looking now?

Balyn grew up on the east coast of Australia, nourishing his passion for surfing through a diet of empty beach breaks, Taylor Steele VHS cassettes and poor amateur competition results. As one of the head writers/analysts for Surf-Stats, he is as comfortable tearing through spreadsheets as he is 6' left-handers.