47% is probably the most famous number to come out of the 2012 presidential campaign. Thats the percentage of Americans Mitt Romney suggested he was writing off when captured on that famous secretly recorded video during a Florida fundraiser.

But 47% also represents the critical dividing line between how the Romney and Obama campaigns gauge the Presidents chances of re-election, viewed through the prisms of their closely guarded internal polling data. In general, the Republicans see a ceiling of around 47% for Obamas share of the vote in most of the nine battleground states that will decide this contest. The Obama team says it consistently measures their man above that magic line, at around 48-50%.

Both campaigns employ top-flight pollsters who are paid to scientifically take the pulse of the electorate in the battleground states and deliver to the candidate and his strategists an unvarnished view of the state of the race at any given moment. It doesnt well serve either the incumbent or the challenger to sugarcoat the situation by producing poll results that overstate support (as some pollsters are famous for doing). The key differential between the Chicago and Boston methodologies appears to be assumptions about the final makeup of the electorate in the nine battleground contests.

If the Presidents internal data is correct, he is indeed likely to win, pushing off a floor above 47%; using his superior get-out-the-vote operation to dominate early and absentee voting and hold his own on Election Day; and taking a significant share of the small remaining undecided vote. These numbers apply to Chicagos data from the battleground states, where the Presidents support in his campaigns internal research has consistently outperformed his national poll standing.

On June 30, 2011, Halperin was suspended from his duties at MSNBC for “slurring” President Barack Obama on the program Morning Joe, saying the President came off as “kind of a dick” during the previous day’s press conference.[13][14] His suspension was lifted a little over a month later.[15]

Criticism

In December 2011, Halperin was listed as #1 in Salon.com’s 2011 Hack List, his reporting described as “shallow and predictable” as well as “both fixated solely on the horse race and also uniquely bad at analyzing the horse race.” [16]

using his superior get-out-the-vote operation to dominate early and absentee voting and hold his own on Election Day

Except that, data from early and absentee voting in the swing states shows him badly underperforming his 2008 results and the GOP significantly improving on McCain's 2008 numbers; in Ohio, or example, Obama is behind 120,000 votes from his tally at this point in 2008.

All polling shows Obama losing the Independent vote by huge margins, and he will swamped by the in-person vote on Election Day.

In other words, this piece of drivel was fed to that toady Halperin to keep the Libs from jumping off the ledge.

Democrat precincts get out 110% of the vote in many of our nations Black inner cities. They also have a great “ground game,” getting the dead out to vote.

To have honest elections, we will need to go back to voting only on election day and having the voter put a finger in indelible purple ink should be mandatory. Putting the military in areas where voter fraud is rife should also be a requirement. Why should Iraq have more secure elections than the USA?

The GOP-e would be bashing Romney and distancing themselves from him if he were behind at this point.

The Obama people may just be more loyal or better bluffers, but I think they honestly believe they are going to win this thing.

I will also say that if white voters sit at home again and the minorities set another turnout record, then yes, we will lose. I also agree that if that happens, we will probably never win another Presidential election for a long, long, long time.

Lets go out and prove them wrong. The very survival of our country depends on it.

9
posted on 10/25/2012 9:00:39 PM PDT
by comebacknewt
(Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)

Early voting is the biggest threat to our nation and the Republican Party.

Measures beyond Voter ID and abolishing Early Voting must be taken to included US Passport required to vote, law enforcement officers at all polling stations, Criminal Background checks at all polling stations and repeal of the Voting Rights Act(s).

I don’t think bambi is acting confident at all, he is acting like a loser, making idiotic statements and focusing on binders, bayonets, and big bird. His campaign is a frikken mess and getting worse. There will be vote fraud, but not enough to overcome the tidal wave that is coming.

Its over for the child president.

15
posted on 10/25/2012 9:31:50 PM PDT
by HerrBlucher
(Praise to the Lord the Almighty the King of Creation)

When I looked at the raw numbers a bit more, we have to remember the "other" (non-affiliated) seem to be breaking for Romney by a fairly significant amount. So the 'Red vs Blue' in those early vote numbers need to be weighted more for the red.

Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.