U.s. War Strategy Calls For 4 Days Of Bombing

Intense Strikes Would Be Aimed At Iraqi Military

February 21, 1998|By Michael R. Gordon and Eric Schmitt, New York Times News Service.

WASHINGTON — As Saddam Hussein defied UN inspectors late last month, President Clinton's top foreign-policy advisers huddled in the basement White House Situation Room to wrestle with their military options.

The aides had shelved a top-secret plan to carry out a prolonged series of moderate air strikes. Officials feared this would not force Hussein to allow unrestricted weapon inspections.

Instead, at the Jan. 24 meeting, the president and his advisers approved an intense four-day, round-the-clock bombardment aimed at undermining the Iraqi military apparatus that supports Hussein and diminishing Iraq's ability to use and produce biological and chemical weapons.

As Defense Secretary William Cohen recalled in an interview Friday, the president turned to his top aides and asked, "Are we all agreed?" After the aides voiced their approval, Clinton said, "Let's do it."

Desert Thunder, as Pentagon planners have named the military campaign, was born.

The administration planners acknowledge that after such a bombing campaign, the West's ability to monitor Iraq's chemical and biological programs will be reduced sharply.

Bombing is expected to destroy United Nations cameras in place at various key sites in Iraq, and American officials are assuming that UN inspectors will never be allowed to resume their work.

Critics, however, say the plan will kill many Iraqis without getting to the root of the problem: Hussein's hold on power and his hidden cache of chemical and biological weapons.

Senior administration and military officers have disclosed these details of their planning:

- While Clinton and others have spoken of Iraq's threat to its neighbors, administration specialists believe that Hussein's conventional military is so weakened by the 1991 Persian Gulf war that it does not pose an imminent threat to other countries.

- The administration is relying on strikes against production facilities, conventional forces and Hussein's power structure because it cannot pinpoint Iraq's Scud missiles and stores of chemical and biological weapons.

- The Pentagon is taking steps to limit civilian casualties, like avoiding bombing chemical sites that could unleash a deadly plume. It has warned Congress that more than 1,500 Iraqis could die in air raids.

- Government experts say it is unlikely that Iraq will launch a chemical or biological counterattack. Such a move, they say, would buttress American claims that an attack was necessary and risk a devastating American assault with conventional arms.

The raids would be only a fraction of those carried out during the 43-day gulf war in 1991. Military experts expect they will include 300 combat flights a day and hundreds of cruise missiles.