Even as the Conservatives try to craft an image of Scheer as “Harper with a smile,” there are larger questions about whether the party can return to the ideological consensus that previously held it together.

This election, the Conservatives face an identity crisis stemming from developments on the right both in Canada and other parts of the world, particularly in the United States.

While the Conservative Party’s strategy hinges on offering a return to Harper-era neoliberal managerialism, it may be the case that this ideological framework is no longer capable of bridging the disparate factions of the Canadian right together.

This neoliberalization of multicultural discourse helped the Conservatives overcome a key hurdle to electoral success, one that had proven particularly troublesome for the Reform Party.

A splintering of the right in Canada?

Harper may have provided a pathway for electoral victory in previous federal elections, but political shifts since 2015 should raise questions about the Conservatives’ ability to secure victory using the same ideological consensus this time around.

Some of these shifts have occurred internationally. The election of Donald Trump in 2016, and the mainstreaming of far right and socially conservative ideologies south of the border, have raised concerns about similar developments unfolding in Canada.

It will be a challenge for the Conservatives to navigate these comparisons.

Scheer greets two RCMP officers prior to recent CFL football action in Hamilton, Ont.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Peter Power

On the one hand, being likened to American conservatives could spell trouble for the party among centrist voters concerned with the spread of Trump-style politics into Canada. But on the other hand, the Conservatives will also need to retain and mobilize the support of social conservatives to stand a realistic chance of unseating Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Given Scheer’s own status as a longstanding social conservative, this balancing act may prove difficult and force the party to depart from their preferred neoliberal messaging.

Even more troubling for the Conservatives is the rising spectre of right-wing populism in Canada.

The recently founded People’s Party of Canada have offered themselves up as a populist alternative to the Conservatives, who party leader Maxime Bernier has accused of being “morally and intellectually bankrupt.”

Bernier has launched a direct challenge to the Conservative’s ownership of right-wing voters, offering a platform that seeks to draw support from those opposed to “mass immigration,” climate change policy, international aid and corporate welfare.

However, if Bernier and the PPC are able to make further inroads with Conservative supporters in the weeks ahead, Scheer will no doubt be pressed to engage with issues that he would rather avoid.

Questions of immigration, national identity and cultural values helped sink Harper’s bid for re-election in 2015. If Scheer is forced into taking firm positions on these issues to ward off the PPC, it may very well play right into the hands of his opponents.

The Conservatives’ ideological future

This election is not only serving as a referendum on Trudeau’s leadership, but should also provide insight into the future of conservativism in Canada.

Given the iron grip Harper held over the party and the rapidly changing political landscape in 2019, it’s worth asking whether a shared commitment to neoliberalism will be a capable umbrella for holding the right together in Canada.

This is certainly what the Conservatives are banking on this election.

But given the existing issues with Scheer’s leadership, regressive developments south of the border and a burgeoning populist movement, it may be difficult for the Conservatives to keep their ideological big tent from bursting at the seams.