Do Democrats have a shot at the McCotter seat?

By Charles Mahtesian

06/04/12 03:42 AM EDT

Now that GOP Rep. Thad McCotter has pulled the plug on a possible write-in campaign and decided not to run, the next question is whether Democrats have a shot at picking up a seat that had until recently been considered safely Republican in November.

The congressman’s departure has opened the door for Democrats to compete for a seat that had once been considered safely Republican. While the GOP enjoys a significant voter registration advantage in the southeast Michigan-area district, the party faces the complicated task of nominating a candidate capable of waging a serious campaign.

The sole Republican whose name will appear on the primary ballot will be Kerry Bentivolio, a tea-party-aligned teacher and Vietnam War veteran who has struggled to raise money. And [former GOP state Sen. Loren] Bennett, who launched his bid on Friday, could face competition from other Republicans running as write-in candidates.

Democratic officials said they were beginning to assess their prospects in the district, though they acknowledged winning there remained a challenge. The leading Democratic candidate, physician Syed Taj, had previously received little attention from party strategists.

In a phone interview on Sunday, Taj said he had not yet heard from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The Republican-oriented suburban Detroit seat, anchored in Oakland and Wayne counties, is a bit of a stretch for Democrats — which explains why Taj hasn’t heard from D.C. yet.

But the seat isn't out of reach and a lot is going to depend on which Republicans decide to mount write-in campaigns and how they fare. If Bentivolio, an unknown candidate who’s raised only $61,000, ends up as the GOP nominee, Democrats will be forced to take a long look at the 11th District because the opportunity might be too good to pass up.