“With his ratings down and state funds needed to hedge against new Western sanctions and raise living standards, Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot afford to get sucked into a costly nuclear arms race with the United States.” The tell could be seen after Donald Trump pulled out of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). Putin indicated Russia would do the same thing, but he “did not up the ante.”

“Who is the most important and disruptive leader in the world today? Most Americans would probably answer, Donald Trump—with Russia’s Vladimir Putin running a close second.” There is, however “a strong case that China’s Xi Jinping may deserve the title.”

Somehow Trump’s appeal keeps rising. “His support within the Republican Party has risen and solidified. It now stands at around 90 percent, which is what tin-pot dictators get in rigged elections.” This leaves many befuddled, but his trick is telling people what they already believe. Playing to prejudice is Trump’s appeal. “He validates the thinking—some of it ugly—of many Americans. To them, Helsinki doesn’t matter and even Putin doesn’t matter. Only Trump does. To them, he hates the right people.”

Following the 1986 Iceland Summit between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, the U.S. ultimately proved the victor. Three decades later, things look different. “Washington had another unparalleled opportunity,” but “the American president was outfoxed by a wily Russian leader playing from a position of unquestioned strength, toying with a deeply damaged counterpart.”

“Constitutionally Mr Putin cannot stand in 2024, and from now on political life will be dominated by the question of succession and expectation of his departure.” There is likely to be a generational sea change as the children and grandchildren of the glasnost and perestroika (openness and restructuring) sown by Gorbachev come to the fore. There will no doubt be tension. Putin’s very “own survival and preservation of the system he now presides over will be his sole objective.”

“There can be little doubt now.” President Donald Trump “truly sees no danger in Mr. Xi’s ‘great’ decision to extend his own rule until death. That craven reaction is in line with Mr. Trump’s consistent support and even admiration for men ruling with increasing brutal and autocratic methods—Vladimir Putin of Russia, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines, to name a few.”

“Russia’s President Vladimir Putin needs a time machine to take him back to March 2014, so he can stop at Crimea. Look at his poll numbers: the bump topped out when Putin added Crimea to the trophy case. The continuing fight in Ukraine’s eastern provinces has brought him nothing of value. He’ll be re-elected in March, but given the state of Russia’s economy, it won’t be long before he’s pining for a return to simpler times.”

“As Putin prepares to run for a fourth term in elections next March, the plight of his working-class base across the Russian heartland is emerging as a top domestic challenge.” There’s little doubt Putin will win, “but the discontent threatens Putin’s popularity as the economy continues to sputter. After the longest recession in his 17-year rule, real incomes have fallen 12 percent over the past three years, sparking protests in areas that provided solid backing for Putin in 2012.”

Putin’s proposal to put U.N. Peacekeepers in Ukraine “seems to be a win-win for Moscow – even if it fails.” Whether it will be a “path to peace” remains to be seen and skeptics believe the Russian president is again scheming at something.

“This week’s exercises with Russia in the Baltic, meanwhile, suggest not only a shared enmity towards the West but also mutual admiration of each other’s thuggish political systems. President Xi Jinping has turned a blind eye to Russia’s land-grab in Ukraine, and President Vladimir Putin to China’s in the South China Sea.” That impression is slightly off the mark. There is actually little to fear. “In fact, America’s navy should co-operate more with China’s, too.”