Euro down on Greek fears - Potential game changer: Housing may turn up - Talker: Bundler problem for Obama - Politics blast: Long slog for delegates

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EURO DOWN ON GREEK FEARS - Bloomberg/Hong Kong: “The euro weakened for a second day as Greek leaders tried to forge an agreement to get a rescue package ... Greece and its international creditors still need to detail 600 million euros ($787 million) of fiscal measures for 2012, a government official said in Athens yesterday. ... The euro has fallen 4.4 percent over the past three months, the worst performance among the 10 developed-nation currencies. Greece’s prime minister will bring the leaders of the three parties supporting him back to the table later today in a bid to forge agreement on terms for a second aid package.” http://bloom.bg/xljcOd

POTENTIAL GAME CHANGER: HOUSING MAY TURN UP - One of the biggest remaining drags on the economy (and President Obama’s chances for re-election) is the moribund housing market. One very sharp analyst suggests it’s about to turn. From the Calculated Risk blog (h/t Joe Wiesenthal): “First there are two bottoms for housing. The first is for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment. The second bottom is for prices. Sometimes these bottoms can happen years apart. ... For new home sales and housing starts, it appears the bottom is in, and I expect an increase in both starts and sales in 2012. ... And it now appears we can look for the bottom in prices.

“My guess is that nominal house prices using the national repeat sales indexes and not seasonally adjusted, will bottom in March 2012. ... There are several reasons I think that house prices are close to a bottom. First prices are close to normal looking at the price-to-rent ratio and real prices ... Second the large decline in listed inventory means less downward pressure on house prices, and third, I think that several policy initiatives will lessen the pressure from distressed sales (the probable mortgage settlement, the HARP refinance program, and more).” http://bit.ly/yXAA5O

FULL POINT ADDITION TO 2012 GDP? - HFE’s Ian Shepherdson on the potential for a housing rebound to alter the growth dynamic this year: “We reckon that the rebound in housing market activity this year will boost GDP growth by as much as a full percentage point.”

U.S. NEARS ENERGY SELF-SUFFICIENCY - Bloomberg’s Rich Miller, Asjylyn Loder and Jim Polson: “The U.S. is the closest it has been in almost 20 years to achieving energy self-sufficiency, a goal the nation has been pursuing since the 1973 Arab oil embargo ... Domestic oil output is the highest in eight years. The U.S. is producing so much natural gas that, where the government warned four years ago of a critical need to boost imports, it now may approve an export terminal. Methanex Corp., the world’s biggest methanol maker, said it will dismantle a factory in Chile and reassemble it in Louisiana to take advantage of low natural gas prices. ...

“The result: The U.S. has reversed a two-decade-long decline in energy independence, increasing the proportion of demand met from domestic sources over the last six years to an estimated 81 percent through the first 10 months of 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from the U.S. Department of Energy. That would be the highest level since 1992.” http://bloom.bg/yQCp8y

FIRST LOOK: INVESTMENT ADVISORS FAVOR ROMNEY - From a Financial Services Institute survey out later this morning of nearly 3,000 financial advisors: “Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is the runaway favorite to win the Republican nomination and, ultimately, the presidency with the 2,938 financial advisors who completed the survey. They also believe: that the Senate will shift to Republican control; that the economy will stay flat while taxes go up; and that the Department of Labor (DOL) should not redefine the term ‘fiduciary.’” Among the results: 90 percent said they thought Romney would win the nomination and 81 percent favored him over President Obama. Full results: http://bit.ly/zI23Z9

OBAMA OFFICIALS WILL HELP SUPER PAC - Obama re-election campaign manager Jim Messina on HuffPo: “The President opposed the Citizens United decision. ... He continues to support a law to force full disclosure of all funding intended to influence our elections ... But this cycle, our campaign has to face the reality of the law as it currently stands. ... With so much at stake, we can't allow for two sets of rules in this election whereby the Republican nominee is the beneficiary of unlimited spending and Democrats unilaterally disarm.
Therefore, the campaign has decided to do what we can, consistent with the law, to support Priorities USA in its effort to counter the weight of the GOP Super PAC. We will do so only in the knowledge and with the expectation that all of its donations will be fully disclosed ...

“What this change means practically: Senior campaign officials as well as some White House and Cabinet officials will attend and speak at Priorities USA fundraising events. While campaign officials may be appearing at events to amplify our message, these folks won't be soliciting contributions ... I should also note that the President, Vice President and First Lady will not be a part of this effort; their political activity will remain focused on the President's campaign. ... This decision will help fill a hole on our side. But it's only one part of the overall effort.” http://huff.to/wnuf8R

M.M. DECODER - Hardly a surprising move given how little Priorities USA raised (just $4.4 million) through the end of the year compared with Romney’s super PAC and other GOP-affiliated groups. M.M. has spoken to several Democratic fundraisers on Wall Street over the last few months who complained about the super PAC gap and said nowhere near enough was being done to boost Priorities USA events. This should address some of that concern. Sure Obama gets whacked with charges of hypocrisy but that’s a lot better than getting whacked with actual bags filled with money.

M.M. APOLOGIES - We ran two Twitter contests recently, one for the jobs day number, one for the Super Bowl score. Since then, responses seemed to have disappeared from our Twitter account. Management will try to rectify the situation. But if you feel you won and have been short-changed, email or DM us and we will look for your specific predictions.

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING - Have you seen New York Knicks’ 6-foot-3 point guard Jeremy Lin in action? Well, you should. Kid is AWESOME. Undrafted out of Harvard. http://read.bi/wKHSVp

DRIVING THE DAY - Payroll tax cut conferees meet again this morning to discuss payfors in the House-passed bill that Democrats will never accept. Still no closer to an agreement. M.M.’s accountant said last week he is planning on the cut going way in March. So maybe we have been wrong about this one. Still doubt it. ... Republicans vote in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. Rick Santorum could win in Minnesota and run second to Mitt Romney in Colorado. Santorum also has a shot in the non-binding Missouri beauty contest where Gingrich is not on the ballot. ... Consumer credit growth, out at 3:00 p.m., is expected to ease off from December’s huge $20.4 billion pop to about $7 billion ... Fed Chair Ben Bernanke testifies before the Senate Budget Committee at 10:00 a.m. on the outlook for monetary and fiscal policy. Obviously he controls just the first of those but he has had a lot to say about the second one lately and its impact on the economy ... Joint Economic Committee meets at 2:30 p.m. to talk about the payroll tax cut and UI benefits with panelists including Moody’s Mark Zandi

LAUGH LINE - Conan O’Brien on the Patriots loss to the Giants: “People from the Boston area haven’t been this depressed and angry since every other day of their lives.”

PRINCE ALWALEED: OIL WON’T GO OVER $100 - CNBC’s Margo D. Beller: “An ‘element of fear’ is playing into the price of oil despite higher supply and decreasing demand, Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal al Saud told CNBC ... Bin Talal, the billionaire member of the Saudi Arabian royal family who runs the Kingdom Holding Co., said the fear comes from ‘what may happen with Iran and the possibility of closing the Hormuz Strait.’ But Saudi Arabia has already said it will not let the price of oil, which closed Monday around $97 a barrel, go above $100, bin Talal said. ‘We can use our leverage, our excess capacity to be sure to pump more [oil] if needed so it will not impact the consumer countries while they’re getting out of their recessions slowly but surely,’ the prince said.” http://bit.ly/xSsMV5

TECH BLINK: FACEBOOK GOVERNANCE SPOOKS BIG INVESTOR - Reuters’ Paritosh Bansal and Soyoung Kim: “Facebook's corporate governance rules, which give shareholders little say in how the social networking website would be run as a public company, are raising the hackles of one of the largest U.S. investors, the California State Teachers' Retirement System. The pension fund, which has a portfolio valued at around $145 billion, is planning to send a letter to Facebook, hoping to engage the social networking website on corporate governance ... ‘We are in the beginning stages of talking to Facebook,’ said Janice Hester-Amey, a portfolio manager in CalSTRS Corporate Governance unit. ... Under the governance provisions, Zuckerberg would remain in complete control of the company for the foreseeable future, so much so that the 27-year-old Harvard University drop-out would even have the right to appoint his own successor before he dies.” http://reut.rs/zuDmkl

TALKER: BUNDLER PROBLEM FOR OBAMA - NYT’s Mike McIntire on pg. A1: “Two American brothers of a Mexican casino magnate who fled drug and fraud charges in the United States and has been seeking a pardon enabling him to return have emerged as major fund-raisers and donors for ... Obama’s re-election campaign. The casino owner, Juan Jose Rojas Cardona, known as Pepe, jumped bail in Iowa in 1994 and disappeared, and has since been linked to violence and corruption in Mexico. ... When The New York Times asked the Obama campaign early Monday about the Cardonas, officials said they were unaware of the brother in Mexico. Later in the day, the campaign said it was refunding the money raised by the family, which totaled more than $200,000. As recently as January of last year, one of Mr. Cardona’s brothers in Chicago, Carlos Rojas Cardona, arranged for the former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party to seek a pardon from the governor for Pepe Cardona, according to prosecutors in that state. None was forthcoming.” http://nyti.ms/xmlyDR

POLITICS BLAST: LONG SLOG FOR DELEGATES - POLITICO’s Juana Summers: It’s a long way to 1,144. ... The focus is now turning to smaller contests in February — where 187 delegates are at stake, including Nevada — most of them caucuses. With delegates mainly awarded on a proportional instead of winner-take-all basis, underdogs with less money but good organizations have a chance to get back in the game. ... [M]omentum is the name of the game, and it looks like ... Santorum is gathering steam in Minnesota and Missouri ... Gingrich pledged to retool his campaign following losses in Florida and Nevada, but may have to wait until Super Tuesday on March 6, when 437 delegates are at stake, to prove whether he has staying power. Mitt Romney is leading the contest with 101 delegates, according to The Associated Press ... Newt Gingrich has 32 delegates, compared with 17 for Santorum and 9 for Ron Paul.” http://bit.ly/zDVSEM

IS WALL STREET OVER? - Gabriel Sherman in New York Magazine: “The crash four years ago was shocking enough to the financial class. But what is happening on Wall Street now is even more terrifying. ...The Dodd-Frank financial-­reform act, much maligned, has already begun to change the shape of the financial system—even before a number of its major provisions are proposed to go into full effect this coming July ... To comply with the looming regulations, banks have begun stripping themselves of the pistons that powered their profits: leverage and proprietary trading. In the wake of the crash, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs converted to bank holding companies to tap the ‘discount window,’ the Fed’s pipeline of cheap funds that gave the banks an emergency source of liquidity. That move seemed smart then, but the stricter standards required of banks have now left them boxed in.” http://bit.ly/zS93DH

NEW FRANCO-GERMAN PLAN FOR GREECE - FT’s Peter Spiegel in Brussels and Hugh Carnegy in Paris on pg. A1: “European officials are insisting any new Greek bail-out programme specifically earmark funds to pay off remaining holders of Greek debt, giving lenders the freedom to withhold aid to Athens without risking a messy default that could reignite panic in financial markets. Under a new Franco-German plan ... eurozone officials would create an escrow account to accept new bail-out funding instead of paying it all directly to Athens as in the past. ... The new fund would then ensure bondholders are paid off, while additional cash to run the Greek government could still be withheld if Athens did not live up to tough new reform demands. A senior French official said the plan, which has backing from the European Commission in Brussels as well as several other eurozone countries, was a way of ‘removing the Damocles sword of default’ while keeping pressure on Athens to reform.” http://on.ft.com/xWdI6V

WASH POST GOES DEEP ON EARMARKS - WP’s David S. Fallis, Scott Higham and Kimberly Kindy: “A U.S. senator from Alabama directed more than $100 million in federal earmarks to renovate downtown Tuscaloosa near his own commercial office building. A congressman from Georgia secured $6.3 million in taxpayer funds to replenish the beach about 900 feet from his island vacation cottage. A representative from Michigan earmarked $486,000 to add a bike lane to a bridge within walking distance of her home.

“Thirty-three members of Congress have steered more than $300 million in earmarks and other spending provisions to dozens of public projects that are next to or within about two miles of the lawmakers’ own property ... Under the ethics rules Congress has written for itself, this is both legal and undisclosed. The Post analyzed public records on the holdings of all 535 members and compared them with earmarks members had sought for pet projects, most of them since 2008.” http://wapo.st/yJ3kVE

REGS PREPARE NEW MONEY FUND RULES - WSJ’s Andrew Ackerman and Kirsten Grind on pg. A1: “Regulators are completing a controversial proposal to shore up the $2.7 trillion money-market fund industry, more than three years after the collapse of Lehman ... sparked a panic that threatened the savings of millions of investors and forced the federal government to intervene. The [SEC] in the coming weeks will unveil a two-part plan to stabilize money funds, which invest in short-term debt instruments and are designed to be safe and readily accessible to investors ... But fund-industry executives say the rules could damp returns for millions of investors, prevent them from getting all their money out during a crisis and reduce confidence instead of bolstering it. ... Firms would have to set aside capital reserves using one of three new methods. Investors who wish to sell all of their holdings at once would be able to get only about 95% of their money back immediately, with the remaining 5% returned to them after 30 days.” http://on.wsj.com/w1KSgm

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR -

NCLR REPORT ON PREVENTING FORECLOSURE - National Consumer Law Center report: “This nationwide report reviews existing programs in 19 states and makes recommendations for best practices for all states to adopt, using foreclosure mediation data from the last three years to draw its conclusions. The report includes examples of programs that are more successful (Connecticut, Nevada, and New York) and those that are less so; state references per section; tables; and a history, including statistics, of documented servicer problems and the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP).” http://bit.ly/wRUdTn

PAYROLL TAX CHANGES VEX BUSINESS - From an op-ed in The Hill by Paycom CEO Chad Richison: “My company provides payroll services for over 11,000 businesses across the nation and processes several million payroll checks every month. This gives me a unique perspective on the challenges facing American businesses ... Do the members of the House and Senate know enough about how payroll works to understand the way in which their stifling indecision and last-minute changes are unnecessarily adding costs to American businesses, creating anxiety for American workers and adding complexity to our tax system? If they do, shame on them. If they do not, why not ask payroll experts before arbitrarily choosing two months as a timeframe for a decision that impacts Americans’ paychecks?” http://bit.ly/zAtHiz

INVESTOR PROTECTION VIDEO - Per release: “Center for Audit Quality (CAQ) released the second in a series of short educational videos about our system of investor protection. The new video explains how independent external auditors evaluate a public company’s financial statements.” http://bit.ly/x8slz4

AIG BONDS ON THE BLOCK - WSJ’s Serena Ng and Al Yoon on pg. C1: “Five Wall Street banks have been invited to bid this week for another multibillion-dollar bundle of risky mortgage bonds held by the [NY Fed] ... as a result of its 2008 rescue of [AIG]. The invited firms are the U.S. securities arms of Barclays PLC, Credit Suisse Group AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Scotland PLC ... They said the New York Fed is seeking bids by midweek for residential mortgage-backed securities with an unpaid principal balance of $6 billion, or about half the remaining bonds in a vehicle called Maiden Lane II. Selling the bonds would let the New York Fed take advantage of buoyant market conditions to dispose of more troubled assets from the financial crisis.” http://on.wsj.com/ztEwWD