Years ago events like these were talked about in what have been called the
Chicago Prophecies."That my children
should prepare their hearts for these things and believe on me, for I am able to
supply all your needs in every adversity. That you walk in faith and not fear.
That you stand upon my promises and see them. That you abide in my love and know
that I am the Lord thy God."

June,
2006. Some have said that the large
Earthquake in Chicago
takes place one month after the one in California.

A researcher investigating
several facets of the San Andreas Fault has produced a new depiction of the
earthquake potential of the fault's southern, highly populated section. The new
study shows that the fault has been stressed to a level sufficient for the next
"big one"—an earthquake of magnitude seven or greater—and the risk of a large
earthquake in this region may be increasing faster than researchers had
believed, according to Yuri Fialko of Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the
University of California, San Diego.

A shaded relief map of California highlights (pink lines)
sections of the San Andreas fault that ruptured in great earthquakes in 1857
and 1906. The red line denotes the southern part of of the fault that has not
produced a major earthquake in at least 300 years. The white box outlines the
area of study for the Nature paper.

Historical records show that the San Andreas Fault experienced
massive earthquakes in 1857 at its central section and in 1906 at its northern
segment (the San Francisco earthquake). The southern section of the fault,
however, has not seen a similar rupture in at least 300 years.

Although seismologists have not been able to predict when a
great earthquake will occur on the southern San Andreas, most believe such an
event is inevitable. Fialko has produced the clearest evidence to date of the
strain buildup that will ultimately result in a large earthquake along the
southern San Andreas Fault, a 100-mile segment that cuts through Palm Springs
and a number of other cities in San Bernardino, Riverside and Imperial counties.
Such an event would be felt throughout much of Southern California, including
densly populated areas of metropolitan Los Angeles and San Diego.

"For the public the most important result of this study is
that these data show definitively that the fault is a significant seismic hazard
and is primed for another big earthquake," said Fialko, an associate professor
at the Cecil H. and Ida M. Green Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics
at Scripps. Fialko's study, which appears in the June 22 edition of the journal
Nature, involves an analysis of several data sources that help depict
the movements of the San Andreas Fault. One result of the study shows that the
southern section of the fault is overdue in its "interseismic period," or cycle
of earthquake activity. "All these data suggest that the fault is ready for the
next big earthquake but exactly when the triggering will happen and when the
earthquake will occur we cannot tell. It could be tomorrow or it could be 10
years or more from now," said Fialko.

Ground shaking due to a hypothesized future rupture of the
southern San Andreas Fault.

Earth's surface is divided into several large tectonic plates
separated by fault zones. The San Andreas Fault, which spans nearly 800 miles
through western California from near the Salton Sea north to near Cape
Mendocino, divides the slow but steady movement of the North American plate,
which moves southeasterly relative to the neighboring Pacific plate. When plates
slide past each other, which seismologists call "creep," strain accumulates less
than when plates "lock" and stress loads continue to escalate, increasing the
prospects of an eventual fault rupture and earthquake.

In order to develop a detailed representation of the behavior
of the San Andreas and study how the fault has been moving, bending and
deforming, and to get a clearer idea of its stress points, or "interseismic
loading," Fialko analyzed high-quality images taken by European Space Agency
satellites. He also coalesced data from ancient geological records, Global
Positioning System readings and seismic instruments.

Radar imaging from space reveals displacements on the
earth's surface for a 200 kilometer-long by 100 kilometer-wide swath across
the Salton Sea area. The different colors correspond to the amount of
displacement relative to the satellite.

Fialko found evidence that the southern San Andreas is mostly
locked and continues to accumulate significant amounts of strain. He calculated
the rate at which the fault is moving and estimated the "fault slip rate," the
pace of the plate movement at the fault, at about an inch per year. According to
Fialko, this means that during the last 300 dormant years the fault has
accumulated approximately six to eight meters of slip "deficit," which will be
released in the future big earthquakes. If all inferred deficit is released in a
single event, it would result in a magnitude eight earthquake, roughly the size
of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake.

"In the earthquake business, the past is a key to
understanding the present and by comparing data on the timing of past
earthquakes on the fault with what we have measured over the last 10 years, we
can say with some certainty that the fault is approaching the end of its loading
period," said Fialko.

One unusual result that emerged from Fialko's study is that
the two sides of the fault are behaving vastly differently, with the North
American plate showing flexibility in its movement patterns and the Pacific
plate demonstrating more rigid characteristics, akin to a giant unbending block.
Fialko says this new insight on fault structure may help seismologists further
understand fault activity at the San Andreas and other faults. Future studies by
Fialko and others will address these marked differences and their implications
for earthquake risk.

Another surprising result concerned the San Jacinto Fault, a
lesser known Southern California fault yet one of the most significant branches
of the San Andreas system. Fialko's analysis of the San Jacinto Fault, which
winds through populated areas in San Bernardino, Riverside and Borrego Springs,
found that it is moving at roughly twice the speed of previous estimates and
thereby its propensity for earthquakes is greatly enhanced. While the San
Andreas is at risk for an earthquake of magnitude eight or higher, the San
Jacinto Fault has an even greater risk for a slightly smaller earthquake of
magnitude seven, which still falls into the category of a major earthquake.

Yuri Fialko

The new results also shed light on the large faults off
Southern California's coast. Fialko found that the San Andreas and San Jacinto
faults account for so much of the North American and Pacific plate motions that
the offshore faults must carry much less seismic risk than previously estimated.
He says these offshore faults, including the Oceanside, Rose Canyon and Elsinore
Faults, are moving much more slowly than anticipated, reducing the earthquake
threats from these faults for cities such as San Diego.

Even with the highly precise data used in Fialko's study and
the new understandings that resulted, he noted that there is a great deal left
to explore in regards to the complex dynamics of tectonic loading and the
tipping points for faults and earthquake events.

The National Science Foundation and the Southern California
Earthquake Center supported Fialko's research for this study. The data were
provided by the European Space Agency and Southern California Integrated GPS
Network.

# # #

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Scripps Institution of Oceanography, at the University of California, San Diego,
is one of the oldest, largest, and most important centers for global science
research and graduate training in the world. The National Research Council has
ranked Scripps first in faculty quality among oceanography programs nationwide.
The scientific scope of the institution has grown since its founding in 1903 to
include biological, physical, chemical, geological, geophysical, and atmospheric
studies of the earth as a system. Hundreds of research programs covering a wide
range of scientific areas are under way today in 65 countries. The institution
has a staff of about 1,300, and annual expenditures of approximately $140
million from federal, state, and private sources. Scripps operates one of the
largest U.S. academic fleets with four oceanographic research ships and one
research platform for worldwide exploration.

Web Site Master- Index of Survival
Files this is the page that I personally use the most,
to access my survival files May be smaller, easier to use then last index
on this page. Files I chose first were put on the web site.