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In an election for governor of Washington State today, 08/08/12, three months until votes are counted, Democrat Jay Inslee has an advantage over Republican Rob McKenna, 48% to 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KING-TV in Seattle.

This is SurveyUSA’s first poll of likely voters in this contest; previous polls on the Governor’s contest have been of registered voters, and are not apples-to-apples comparable. That said: this is the first time in 5 surveys going back to January 2012 that Inslee has led by any margin.

Among likely voters, Inslee leads among moderates, among women, among lower-income voters, and in greater Seattle. McKenna leads in Eastern and Western Washington and among Independents.

All of Inslee’s advantage comes from minority voters. Among whites, the contest is tied. Among Asians and Hispanics, Inslee leads.

* Voters see Inslee as significantly stronger on the environment, see McKenna as slightly stronger on the economy.* Voters say McKenna would bring more change to Olympia.* Voters say Inslee better reflects their position on social issues.* Voters say Inslee is more likeable.

* McKenna has a Plus 16 Net Favorability Rating: 39% have a favorable opinion of McKenna, 23% have an unfavorable opinion.* Inslee has a Plus 11 Net Favorability Rating: 37% have a favorable opinion of Inslee, 26% have an unfavorable opinion.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Washington adults 08/01/12 and 08/02/12, using blended sample, mixed mode. Of the adults, 597 were registered to vote; of them, 524 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November general election. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device.