&nbsp482 &nbspFXUS64 KMOB 142055 &nbspAFDMOB &nbsp &nbspAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION &nbspNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL &nbsp355 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018 &nbsp&nbsp &nbspNEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ &nbsp14.12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS &nbspSHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE GEO-POTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS &nbspALOFT OVER THE PAST DAY WITH A TROF AXIS OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY &nbspGRADUALLY EASING EASTWARD. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS &nbspSOUTH OF THE LA COAST WHILE NEXT TROF TO MOVE EAST WAS POSITIONED &nbspOVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ASSESSMENT OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOWS &nbspPWAT'S NEAR 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. CONSIDERING &nbspMOISTURE, DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOCAL AIRMASS AND THE CONTINUED &nbspPASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE HIGHER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW &nbspBETWEEN THE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS RECENTLY MENTIONED, STORMS ARE &nbspFORECAST TO DEVELOP THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LATEST &nbspRADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY HUGGING THE &nbspEASTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WESTWARD NEAR THE I-10 &nbspCORRIDOR. SOME OF THE STORMS LIKELY WILL PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG &nbspCONVECTIVE DOWNBURSTS (40 MPH OR HIGHER) UPON COLLAPSE OF ANY OF &nbspTHE STRONGEST CORES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS &nbspALSO LIKELY IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. &nbsp &nbspTONIGHT, WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE TYPE APPROACH ON &nbspSHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CARRY A SMALL PROBABILITY INTO THE EVENING TO &nbspACCOUNT FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY CARRYING OVER FROM THE AFTERNOON. &nbspPATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS &nbspTHAT SEE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING RAINFALL. ON WEDNESDAY, THE &nbspLATEST GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON SHOWING LOWERING MID LEVEL &nbspHEIGHTS SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY &nbspASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROF MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS. MID LEVEL &nbspRIDGING INTO THE LOCAL AREA SHRINKS, WHILE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED &nbspOVER THE WESTERN GULF AND UP INTO TX. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS &nbspIS MAINTAINED DURING THE HEAT AND INSTABILITY OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. &nbsp/10 &nbsp&nbsp &nbspSHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/ &nbspWEDNESDAY &nbspNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE &nbspSOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHWESTERN GULF CONNECTS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH &nbspPRESSURE SPREADING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN. &nbspTHIS ORGANIZES A LOW LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT WEST OVER THE &nbspNORTHERN GULF AND BRINGS A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE &nbspGULF. MOISTURE LEVELS THAT HAD DIPPED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY RETURN TO &nbspTHEIR PREVIOUS "SOUPY" LEVELS (PRECIP H20 LEVELS RISING TO 2" OR &nbspGREATER OVER THE FORECAST AREA) AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS. AN UPPER &nbspTROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WITH THE SOUTHERN &nbspEND BISECTING THE NORTHERN GULF RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO &nbspWEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN CONCERT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS, SCATTERED &nbspTO NUMEROUS TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. &nbspGREATEST MOISTURE RETURN IS INDICATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE &nbspFORECAST AREA, SO HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS THIS SECTION OF THE &nbspFORECAST AREA. HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE EAST WILL LEAD TO HIGHER HIGH &nbspTEMPS WEST AND A W-E GRADIENT OF HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY (AROUND 90 &nbspEAST TO NEAR 95 WEST). WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE &nbspLEVELS, HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED WEST (101 TO 107F), &nbspMAINLY WEST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER. EAST OF THE RIVER, HEAT INDICES &nbspOF 98 TO 102 ARE ADVERTISED IN THE GUIDANCE. &nbsp &nbspTHURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, ENERGY MOVING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI &nbspRIVER DIGS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH (AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS &nbspGUIDANCE) CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER (FARTHER &nbspWEST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS). THIS POSITION DIRECTS A SERIES OF &nbspSHORTWAVE IMPULSES OVER/NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND BRINGS &nbspSCATTERED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. TEMPS A BIT COOLER &nbspTHAN WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED AS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAKENING UPPER &nbspRIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DECREASES, BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO &nbspRISE INTO THE LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 ARE EXPECTED &nbspAREA-WIDE WITH THE SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE &nbspLOW 90S. &nbsp &nbspNOT TO FORGET OVERNIGHT LOWS, THE INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG &nbspWITH INCREASED UPPER SUBSIDENCE INITIALLY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES &nbspFROM DROPPING BELOW A 72 TO 76 DEGREE RANGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. &nbspONSHORE WARM FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE 75 &nbspTO 79 DEGREE RANGE EACH NIGHT. &nbsp &nbspLASTLY FOR THE SHORT TERM, WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY LEVELS HIGH &nbspENOUGH FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS (MLCAPES RISING TO &nbspAROUND 2000J/KG EACH DAY), SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS CAN BRING &nbspWIND GUSTS TOPPING 40 MPH OR HIGH AS THEY COLLAPSE. &nbsp &nbsp/16 &nbsp&nbsp &nbspLONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ &nbspSATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, &nbspSHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH, &nbspSHIFTING IT EAST. ULTIMATELY THE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST &nbspAREA MONDAY. UNTIL THEN, INCREASED UPPER SUPPORT AND HIGH MOISTURE &nbspLEVELS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS &nbspAREA WIDE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLING WILL DROP &nbspEXPECTED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS, TO &nbspTHE 88 TO 91 DEGREE RANGE. MONDAY ON, GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING AN &nbspUPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK WEST FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE &nbspNORTHERN GULF. CHANCES OF RAIN DECREASE EARLY IN THE COMING WORK &nbspWEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INCHING UPWARD FROM THE WEEKEND. WITH THE &nbspINCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE BRINGING A DRIER &nbspAIRMASS TO THE AREA MONDAY ON, OVERNIGHT LOWS SEE A SEVERAL DEGREE &nbspDROP FROM THE WEEKEND AS THE WORK WEEK PROGRESSES. &nbsp &nbsp/16 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp&nbsp &nbspMARINE &nbspLARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC PERSISTS &nbspAND RIDGES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MAINTAINS A &nbspSOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PREVAILING FLOW. SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS, WAVES &nbspAND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS. /10 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp&nbsp &nbspPRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS &nbsp &nbspMOBILE 73 93 74 91 74 91 74 91 / 20 30 20 50 20 50 20 60 &nbspPENSACOLA 76 90 77 89 77 90 76 89 / 30 50 20 50 20 50 20 50 &nbspDESTIN 77 89 78 89 78 88 78 87 / 30 50 40 40 10 50 20 50 &nbspEVERGREEN 73 94 73 91 73 92 73 91 / 30 30 10 60 20 50 20 60 &nbspWAYNESBORO 72 94 72 94 72 92 73 90 / 20 30 10 40 20 50 20 60 &nbspCAMDEN 72 95 73 92 73 92 73 90 / 20 30 10 50 20 50 20 60 &nbspCRESTVIEW 73 92 73 89 73 91 73 90 / 30 50 30 60 20 50 20 60 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp&nbsp &nbspMOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES &nbsp &nbspAL...NONE. &nbspFL...NONE. &nbspMS...NONE. &nbspGM...NONE. &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbspTHIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: &nbspHTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB &nbsp