Economic development officials in south Alabama and Mississippi admit the shock of losing a $600 million, 1,500-worker aircraft assembly plant at Mobile's Brookley Aeroplex that would have grown up had the European Aeronautic Defence and Space Co. landed the $40 billion U.S. Air Force tanker contract. But that's starting to wear off, they said, and positive developments such as expansions of existing businesses, new employers and prospects suggest that a turnaround could be in the cards.

Although far from the lows of the mid-2000s, unemployment is generally on a slow, downward slide, according to the latest figures.

Unemployment rates in south Alabama in December fell below the national average for the first time since 2009. Mobile County's unemployment rate was 8.4 percent, down from 9.1 percent in November and 9.7 percent in November 2010. South Mississippi unemployment rates have also been falling, according to the latest figures, but exhibit a more up-and-down trajectory than south Alabama's. In Jackson County, for example, the November rate was 10.1 percent, down from 10.7 percent in October but up from 9.2 percent in November 2010.

Speculation on what it will take to spark a true turnaround varies. A change in national leadership and an improved economy at the national level are oft-given answers, but other factors are particular to various parts of the coast. Employment in Baldwin County and all of coastal Mississippi, for example, is heavily reliant on tourism.

The latest numbers suggest that "we are starting to see the curve on the other side," said Troy Wayman, vice president of economic development at the Mobile Area Chamber of Commerce.

"There are expansions of existing industry," Wayman said. "You've got Austal (shipyard in Mobile) ramping up to get to their 4,000 goal - I believe they're hiring 130 people per month at this point. You've got Aker Solutions who have expanded and need to hire people. TK (German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp AG) is still ramping up in the stainless side. We've got some good stories and some good news that relates to job creation."

There are similar stories in Mississippi, which continues to try and recapture the excitement and momentum that was in the air just before Hurricane Katrina flattened the coast in 2005.

Scott King, director of research and policy at the Mississippi Gulf Coast Business Council, said in the months and days leading up to the storm, there was a lot of anticipation about the opening of the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, the first major gaming venue to open on the Coast since the Beau Rivage.

"I remember that 10,000 people had applied for 1,000 jobs, and that was in a pretty good economy," King said.

South Mississippi was well on its way to recovering from Katrina when the recession hit in 2008, he said, a situation that was further exacerbated by the oil spill in 2010.

"Our focus now is to get back to a point where we are no longer referencing pre-Katrina, where we set the new standard," King said. "And I don't think that will happen in 2012."

Since he doesn't have a crystal ball, he said, he's not sure when that will happen. It will, he said, take longer than one year.

Some constants, along with change

Regardless of what part of the Gulf Coast one is talking about, some things about the employment picture remain the same as they were 10, 20 years ago - school systems, hospitals and governments are still the top non-manufacturing employers, for instance.

However, there have been changes on the list of top employers. In many cases, the growth of Walmart has pushed out locally owned grocers such as Mobile's Autry Greer & Sons Inc. But some noteworthy newcomers have emerged, such as Louisiana's Rouses Supermarkets making a thus-far successful foray into south Mississippi, according to the Harrison County Development Commission.

In Mobile, locally founded Computer Programs and Systems, not even on a blip on the radar eight years ago, has grown to one of the area's top non-manufacturing employers. Providing information technology and software for primarily small, rural hospitals, CPSI has about 1,000 employees.

When it comes to manufacturing, shipbuilding remains tops in Mississippi with Ingalls Shipbuilding the region and the state's largest employer. In Mobile, several key newcomers - ThyssenKrupp and shipbuilder Austal - are proving to be game changers.

"We just had announcement (last) week that Heidtman Steel is going to use some land that TK designed for an industrial park," Wayman said.

The company, which intends to cut steel coil to customer specifications, plans to invest about $18.5 million in a new facility and create about 50 jobs that pay annual salaries of $50,000, Wayman said.

With ThyssenKrupp gearing up and the tanker contract off the table, Wayman said he doesn't expect anything of that magnitude to come around again anytime soon.

"A project like a TK doesn't come along but once in a lifetime," he said. "But I do expect as much capital investment and jobs taking place in multiple companies."

A few examples of companies that are creating new jobs in south Alabama range from call center Alorica, which has created more than 500 jobs in the past couple of years, to the smaller Krispy Mixes of Moss Point. That company, which makes fried-seafood breading for major restaurant chains such as Wintzell's, has opened a Mobile facility that employs 22 people.

Baldwin pursues diversification

Although it's right next door to Mobile, Baldwin County has a somewhat different employment makeup. Because of Baldwin's beaches, up to 45 percent of local jobs are related to the hospitality industry, said Bob Higgins, senior vice president of the Baldwin County Economic Development Alliance. That has been the case for the past 10 to 15 years, he said.

The oil spill in 2010 reinforced the importance of diversification, particularly for tourism-related employers, Higgins said. "It became really obvious after the oil spill that businesses need to have more than one set of revenue or products," he said. "We get 4.5 to 4.6 million beach visitors each year, and if the beach goes away, we're really at risk."

One effort that has yielded success is a focus on courting national youth sports tournaments such as soccer and baseball, Higgins said. In 2010 when summer lodging was down elsewhere, Higgins said, Baldwin actually realized an increase of 38,000 room nights thanks to such events.

Attracting new manufacturers to the area is a collaborative effort, he said, as evidenced by pursuit of businesses related to the tanker contract.

"Depending on the size of the business, (prospects) still expect us to speak not as Mississippi or Alabama or Florida but the whole Gulf Coast region," Higgins said. "That was clear when we went to Toulouse, France, when we were pursuing the tanker contract."

The alliance is working with partners in Mississippi and Florida to market an industrial mega-site off Interstate 65 that Higgins said would be ideal for a TK-magnitude project that brings with it multiple suppliers.

At one time targeted by HK Motors as a location for a hybrid auto manufacturing plant, the 3,000-acre site is being shopped around by the partners, and a website has been created for it.