A Regular Commentary on Strategic Affairs from a Leading Commentator and Analyst
2018 book project: Little Europe? Twenty-First Century Strategy for Declining Powers

hms iron duke

Friday, 31 August 2012

Afghanistan: An Allotment in a Jungle

Alphen,
Netherlands. 31 August, 2012.Nothing
makes my blood boil more than recently retired senior government officials suddenly
changing their story once retired.Earlier
this year I was excoriated for suggesting that our troops were dying in
Afghanistan for want of a meaningful political strategy and to avoid the political embarrassment of leaders.Yesterday, Ambassador Sherard Cowper-Coles, London’s
former ‘man in Kabul’, went on BBC radio to launch a stinging attack on both
the American and British governments.He
said that the undoubted achievements of American, British and other coalition armed
forces in denying Afghanistan to Al Qaeda had been wasted due to a lack of a meaningful
political strategy built on reconciliation within Afghanistan and a regional
political settlement beyond. Cowper-Coles
likened the West’s strategy to “cultivating an allotment (small vegetable
garden) in a jungle” and virtually quoted me (unintentionally) when he said that
the military surge had failed because it had not been matched by a political
surge.

This
dreadful week in which five Australian soldiers were killed, three of whom died
in yet another so-called green-on-blue attack and in which eleven civilians were beheaded
by the Taliban in Helmand province, has again highlighted not so much a failing
political strategy as the absence of one. Five years ago I wrote two major reports on Afghanistan
following a visit to that beautiful, but broken country and in 2009 I wrote the
original “Plan B for Afghanistan” for the International Institute for Strategic
Studies (still online). Plan B highlighted exactly the points that are now being presented as
revealed truth by the the so-called great and good as the scramble begins to
shift and avoid blame for failure.

Former
US Special Envoy the late Richard Holbrooke said that the West was fighting the
wrong enemy with the wrong strategy in the wrong country.Only a proper regional strategy with the stabilization
of Pakistan at its centre would have afforded Afghans the semblance of a ‘peace’
beyond the heroin-funded, fundamentalist-driven, tribal-brokered anarchy that
is likely to be their future.Sadly, it
is too late now.

It is
the old quantity versus quality problem.However large the Afghan National Army or the
Afghan police unless and until there is a government in Kabul worthy of the
name Western forces are simply preparing Afghanistan for the inevitable civil
war that will follow 2014.

Sadly,
the dishonesty is likely to continue.Much is made by Washington and London of their continued commitment to
Afghanistan post-2014 (other allies are already on their way out).It is a sham.I was approached to become a member of a consortium bidding for a
contract to provide defence education.Only after some time did I realise that in fact I was being suckered
into a contract to go to Afghanistan post-2014 as a defence-educator simply to
maintain the pretence that American and British politicians are keeping their
word.Once the bulk of Western forces
withdraw anyone who goes will be little more than hostage-bait.

It is
patently obvious that both American and British politicians are now more intent
in putting distance between themselves and Afghanistan than supporting the
troops with real political capital. Indeed,
it is striking how the West’s Afghan veterans are fast becoming like those
Russians who went home broken in the wake of Moscow's 1989 withdrawal.Known as The Forgotten Division they have
to fight for the most basic of support simply because by existing they remind
Russia’s leaders of failure.Thankfully our veterans are treated far better
but for far too long the West’s young men and women in uniform, together with
their partners from across the globe, have carried our politicians creating an
alibi for appalling leadership.

It is
not Ambassador Cowper-Coles who is in my sights as he did indeed try to change
things from within.However, too often those taking the President’s buck or the Queen’s shilling do
far too little to shift policy and strategy from within government and are all
too quick to attack it having left, especially when there is a book to sell.It is the mark of the cynicism of both London
and Washington these days that careers matter more than honour.

It is this behaviour that prevents government from confronting truth and helps politicians avoid uncomfortable truths. It is
compounded by attempts to silence critics who are simply confirming the
blindingly obvious; that in the absence of a real and sustained political strategy
our young men and women are dying in Afghanistan for nothing and will continue
to do so until they are withdrawn in 2014.

Afghanistan is
indeed an allotment in a jungle. Which jungle is a good question - there or here. This
blog is dedicated to the five brave Australians killed this week.

About Me

Julian Lindley-French is Senior Fellow of the Institute of Statecraft, Director of Europa Analytica & Distinguished Visiting Research Fellow, National Defense University, Washington DC. An internationally-recognised strategic analyst, advisor and author he was formerly Eisenhower Professor of Defence Strategy at the Netherlands Defence Academy,and Special Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of Leiden. He is a Fellow of Respublica in London, and a member of the Strategic Advisory Group of the Atlantic Council of the United States in Washington.
Latest books: The Oxford Handbook on War 2014 (Paperback) (2014; 709 pages). (Oxford: Oxford University Press) & "Little Britain? Twenty-First Strategy for a Middling European Power". (www.amazon.com)
The Friendly-Clinch Health Warning: The views contained herein are entirely my own and do not necessarily reflect those of any institution.