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Monday, August 1, 2011

Typhoon Muifa (Kabayan) Update #15 w/ Video

Typhoon Muifa (Bagyong Kabayan) has slightly weakened as it undergoes an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (EWRC). It was last located approximately 960km southeast of Okinawa or about 1,240 east southeast of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 205kph gusting to 250kph, equal to a Category 3 typhoon in the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Muifa is moving northward at 15kph.

Latest microwave and VIS image show concentric rings around the center as well as a dry moat. The eye is still visible on the microwave and an outer wall is trying to form which will then replace the existing inner eyewall. Muifa is forecast to complete the cycle in about 12 hours. Once it does, it is expected regain some intensity, peaking at 125kts (230kph) by Wednesday.

Forecast tracks remain at or near Okinawa. Our forecast takes Muifa just south of the Island as a possible Category 4 typhoon by Thursday evening or very early Friday morning(Japan Time). Muifa will then being turning west northwestward towards Eastern China by this weekend. Uncertainty remains on how close Muifa will get to Okinawa. JMA is showing it just south while JTWC is bringing Muifa directly across the island. Whatever the scenario maybe, Okinawa will definitely see some typhoon-force winds beginning Thursday and lasting into Friday. Once it clears the Japanese Islands, the next target looks to be Eastern and Northeastern China. Please stay tuned!