'Tis the time to be thankful. And what are you thankful for?Family. The beauty and splendor of nature. All the rare birds thathave bounded into the Basin this year. Sure, sure. But admit it:What you're really thankful for is that The Cup is finally out! Nomore wondering if Mighty Matt Young has ousted poor unsuspectingGeo. No more biting your nails in anticipation of reading whetherthose Cayugabirds posts you spend hours making so purposefullywitty or poetic horned their way into the Cup Quotes. No morefretting for fear that Dear Tick will suffer burn-out and turn fromcompassionate truthsayer to sarcastic pun-gunner.

No, it's all here. Despite the irrepressible demands of birding(we felt obligated to prove that there are birds outside the Basin bychecking out the Anna's Hummingbird), unruly columnists (well, except forCaissa Willmer--wait a minute, we take that back!), jobs (do aswe say, not as we do), and securing Syracuse basketball tickets(Casey, we finally got the Villanova tickets!), we submit to youThe Cup 3.10!

So read it and enjoy that it's done. At least, we think it's done.The thermometer never did pop up...

@ @ @ @ @ @ NEWS, CUES, and BLUES @ @ @ @ @ @

STEPPIN' UP: We couldn't believe it! There was Father Karl, just a-hoppin'and a-kickin', yippin' and skippin'! What, because he'd just found amassive flock of Bohemian Waxwings? No, he was at stepaerobics class! Although his attempts to get the instructor to putin "Birdsongs of the Rocky Mountains" instead of those sassy little Motownnumbers were in vain, don't think he didn't get his birdingin. Every time instructor Mo gave the command for "Aroundthe World," the rest of the class whooped and whistled...and FatherKarl hooted like a lost Barred Owl! Next time you see Karl, tell him howgood he looks, will ya? [For more on this subject, see Scrawl of Fame thisissue!]

IBA SEEIN' YA--STILL: You think that last news item was lame, here'show desperate we really are for news this issue: We're running Jeff's IBAbook ad again! Don't forget to drop on by Jeff's (Wells, as inso-called Cup coeditor) office if you haven't had a look atImportant Bird Areas of New York State. Since many of you had a handin the book's success by providing info on IBAs in our area, youmight like to see the fruits of your labor. It's worth birding for! Jeffcan be reached at (607) 254-2441 or email jw32@cornell.edu.They are available for purchase at $15 each.

BIRD CUP BLUES AND ALL JAZZ: "They don't call him the 'King of the Blues'for nuthin'! BB King played Binghamton on 22 October to an excited andenthusiastic crowd of blues fans. A happy crowd thatseemed a tad shy of Cuppers, I might add. Despite the intense bluesinterest in this circle, nary a familiar face was spied in the crowd. Your(big) loss! "No opening act, no histrionics, just BB. After only a singlesong by the band, BB himself came to the stage and did what he does best:blazing guitar and husky baritone. It was my first experience seeing BBKing in person, and I was not disappointed in the least. I had heardrumors that BB, perhaps because of his age or perhapsbecause of his stature, often doesn't play all that long and thathis concerts can be disappointing. Don't you believe it! After a coupleof songs played standing, the 72-year-old blues legend satdown and really got serious. There is truth sometimes to that old chestnutabout not getting older, just better. His voice was agedto perfection and his fingers still had the skill and speed to make Lucilleastound us all. Although I can imagine a younger performer doing theguitar magic, no young punk could come close to the smokey depth of hisvoice. He played for well over an hour and a half,then, after dispensing a large number of trinkets to the natives(guitar picks, chains and things), he took his leave. It all seemed gonetoo fast. "Our most congenial group had great seats just off from thestage. Fortunately for the Cuppers there, the noise was not toointense that it interfered with our later ability to hear warblerchips. We did, however, suffer some. Not from the music, but fromthe frequent excited exclamations of one of our own number [MelanieUhlir--oops, sorry Mel!]! One of our group could hardly control herenthusiasm (not that I actually noticed her trying to, mind you),and was constantly letting the world know just how much she wasenjoying the show. The rest of us, I think, enjoyed it every bit as much,just more quietly. "The concert reminded me a lot of the Loon Watch on a good day:a spectacular event to enjoy with really good company, but where waseveryone else?"

Although the marvelous trio of AMERICAN WHITE PELICANS disporting atMontezuma through the entire month became a very familiar sightto those who checked the Refuge regularly, it was hardly possibleto grow indifferent to their presence. Serene, every bit as imposing whilestolidly squatting in the mud as they were in soaring flight,they alternated industrious fishing with grand loaf-aboutinsouciance. Comic at times, never tiresome, they were ultimately sublime,and so it seems appropriate that their departure was unobserved, as if theyhad simply evaporated. If we are so lucky asto see the threesome return next year, which their apparentcontentment and lengthy stay permit us faintly to hope, they willseem like dear (if rather snooty) old friends. Moving from the persistent to the ephemeral highlights now, a CayugaBird Club walk led by Bard Prentiss scored very big at Dryden Lake onOctober 10th with extended views of a NELSON'S SHARP-TAILED SPARROW, whichleft the five attendees glowing, and those who mighthave attended but didn't rather envious, especially those who searched highand low for the bird later that day and the next without success. Add KenRosenberg's flyover DICKCISSEL on the 11th (a consolationprize for missing the Sharp-tail) and the ORANGE-CROWNED WARBLER in KevinMcGowan's yard on the 13th, a flock of BRANT, a SURF SCOTER, a MERLIN ortwo, the first ROUGH-LEGGED HAWK, plus the horde of WHITE-CROWNED SPARROWSin Matt Young's yard, the first of the fall's FOX SPARROWS and a finalLINCOLN'S SPARROW or three, not to mentionone AMERICAN COOT (very HOT, we're told), and you have unassailable proofthat Dryden still rules! A lone GREATER WHITE-FRONTED GOOSE was sighted at May's Pointon 10/11 by Gary Chapin, and another on 10/24 by John Van Neil.LESSER BLACK-BACKED GULL, PEREGRINE FALCON, MERLIN, a WILSON'SPHALAROPE and scattered lingering shorebirds made the Refuge worththe stop even if one was sick of pelicans (?). Matt Young called up a SORAat Tschache Marsh on the 13th. Elsewhere in the Basin, alongwith the more common waterfowl SURF, WHITE-WINGED and BLACKSCOTERS were all seen, as were transient OLDSQUAW, BRANT, and RED-THROATEDLOONS, most from Bob Meade's annual Loon Watch atTaughannock Point by eagle-eyed Matt Young. RUSTY BLACKBIRDS were onthe move, or lingered in favored swamps throughout the month. More ROUGH-LEGGED HAWKS appeared. A surprising number ofNORTHERN GOSHAWK reports were uncovered, suggesting that we might bein for a winter invasion. Wide-roaming RAVENS were heard or seenoutside of their expected areas. RUBY-CROWNED KINGLETS came and went.Various warblers made (probably) their final curtain-calls. AMERICAN TREESPARROWS, HORNED LARKS, SNOW BUNTINGS and PIPITS began turningup. The first snowflakes fell. Winter approaches. Know what you'regoing to bring to dinner after the Christmas Count?

As predicted, the frontrunners' spread is closing up as the final stretchopens before them, but last month's leader has not quitebeen overtaken yet. Though I added just one bird in October, that'sthe one that saved the lead for another month. Here's the list of 235:

Our final tally for 1996 was 268, while we finished 1997 with 267,but 1998's total threatens to be distinctly lower. We have nowfallen 9 birds behind the October 1997 tally of 266. Only two morewere added during all of last November and December. This year weneed to find three just to crack 260. Since November is already well underthe bridge with no additions yet, it looks daunting. A few ofthe rarely visiting gulls and waterfowl offer our best hope, if hope therebe. There are of course no winter finches left to add. An outlandish hummerwould be great, but something tells me the birdwill turn up out-of-bounds. Last year's eleventh hour appeal for BohemianWaxwings didn't produce any, but the slumping composite isfar more sorely in need of them this year. With no NBA action to distractus, we should be making an all-out effort to find them.No Bulls this fall, it's Bears or nothing, as if we were in a marketslump after the winter-finch euphoria subsided and the springwarblers yielded disappointing returns. Where the heck is thecoaching staff on this anyway?

Some people (Geo!) are so demanding. They actually expect theircoaching staff to show! We at The Cup know that you need not bepresent to dole out advice. In fact, you don't even have to dole outa new game strategy from game to game. Just get out the old clipboard and tap away. (Hey, it beats giving into demands for pay increases!)

COACH FARNSWORTH: My first thoughts on November begin with abad cup of coffee, messy hair, dysfunctional fingers and fogged upbinoculars. A bad cup of coffee to start a morning that might nototherwise have started for another several hours; messy hair becausea wool hat has not been invented that functions and is static-free;dysfunctional fingers from gripping for dear life your binocularsthat are horribly fogged and colder to the touch than your coretemperature. Yes, November is not for the weak. I am looking forward, truly, to standing out on the lighthouse jettyin a blasting north wind, thinking about speaking to whatever brave soulsstand beside me, but then thinking better of it for fearof freezing the entirety of my insides with a blast of cold air intomy lungs and freezing everyone else's insides as they try to respondto my coughs and gags. But I also envision lifting my binoculars tomy eyes and watching a late Parasitic Jaeger cruise by at such high speedthat its passage shakes the very jetty on which we stand (a new land speedrecord set by none other than...jaeger!) I imagine near tragedy as thosesame brave souls cling to the jetty for dear life, barely avoiding a coldwatery grave while watching a transientPurple Sandpiper wonder how it ended up in such a gray place (andsubsequently leaving very quickly). And please don't let me forget aboutall the ducks cruising overhead sparking grand debate("what do you mean swan?!?!?! that was a bufflehead!!! Hmmmm...)I guess at that point I wake up happy from my dream. But in all seriousness. Though November is cold, the chill isworth it. Let me explain. The Mount Pleasant-Michigan Hill Factor:I seem to speak about these places almost incessantly. Nonetheless...You can bet that on days with northerly winds I will be freezing mytail at one of these locations, watching the last of the Golden Eaglestrickle through, thanking the lone Rough-legged Hawks and Northern Goshawksfor keeping my company, hoping this day is THE day for thatbig Red-tailed Hawk flight that is sure to come soon. I anticipatewith great fervor the handful of Northern Shrikes that will fly bymigrating south to marginally warmer destinations, leaving us towonder why marginally warmer is so much better than McIllroyairspace. And I have been and will continue to wait for the armada(can one bird be an armada if no man is an island??) of SandhillCranes to fly over one of our hawk watches. It's going to happensoon enough, why not this November? Both Mount Pleasant and Michigan Hill offer commanding views ofthe southern Basin's airspace. I cannot say enough good things aboutmigration watches at these spots. Though there certainly have beenand will continue days with seemingly no birds, the days that produce bigflights definitely make up for these more than amply. Besides these places, the southern Basin has a number of othergood places to watch late hawk migration and waterfowl flights aswell as morning landbird flights. Sunset Park somehow always draws theshortest straw on my birding priority list, but every time I have beenrecently, I think to myself that I ought to bird there more often. The Lake Vector: The final frontier. These are the voyages ofthe..oops, just kidding. (A little too much TV and I don't meanTurkey Vulture.) The lake will no doubt be a gold mine this month.Like the sky-watching migration sites of Mt Pleasant and MichiganHill, the lake needs major coverage this month. The possibilities are not endless but they are very exciting.The time is now to begin looking for those elusive Iceland andGlaucous Gulls. A species we could easily be overlooking at times isMew Gull--again something to seek out in the growing gull flocks.Black-legged Kittiwake no doubt drifts through the Basin unnoticed onoccasion. The moral: keep your eyes peeled and sharp while watching gulls.Three words, if you will: COME ON, IVORY!!! Waterfowl migration is now in full swing. Watch for scoters,Brant, Oldsquaw, maybe a Harlequin Duck at Long Point or at theUnion Springs Railroad Crossing. And the big cheese - the spectacleof the loons. Loon migration visible on this lake of ours isnothing short of extraordinary. For the students of migration, agood loon flight morning at Taughannock Falls State Park is aspectacle not to be missed. And especially when you consider that oneof these days a murrelet is going to fly by (no doubt subject to the samefrigid wind that will keep binoculars from eyes and keep lipsfrom speaking...well, maybe a bit dramatic I know, but still!) Isuggest watching for those sometimes elusive north winds, getting mobilizedpre-dawn when they finally arrive and then dressing VERY WARMLY (bad cup ofcoffee not necessary although it might make for a better story). And whilewatching the loons don't forget to watch the huge numbers of blackbirdspouring overhead up in the stratosphere(yes, you too can dream about all the Brewer's and Yellow-headed Blackbirdsfor the incredible price of sore eyes and a kinkedneck.) Other places to watch: the bluffs above Aurora Bay. Though thiscommanding view leaves you far above Cayuga's waters (pun intended),there is something about the vista of the entirety of the bay before you.You can scan everything with a scope easily and then make you choice as towhich flock warrants further inspection. May I suggestthe one with the Common Eider in it, if I may be so bold? A further note: Once the icky fog begins to creep in and the lowceiling becomes no ceiling at some point during the month even thesmallest pond or lake could have downed waterfowl swimming about.Though the grebe spectacle of several years ago in upstate NY that bringsthis to mind was brought about by a freeze some time during the winter Ithink that on the horribly gray, foggy, drizzly days weshould be out pounding the water, if you will. That's when the crazy stuffwill be out and about. Open Field, Closed Minds: With winter setting in the usualassortment of open country birds is arriving. Snow Buntings, LaplandLongspurs, and American Tree Sparrows have shown their faces.A juvenile Northern Shrike has already been reported at Neimi Rd. Perhapsothers are scoping the hedgerows now. Rough-legged Hawksare taking up their quarters, too. Though the idea of standing out in a field during a morning snowsquall might not be appealing, in reality it is not appealing. Oh, didI say that? Excuse me. I meant to say, "open country birding need notbe forgotten because of all the action in and around the lake." Weknow Pine Grosbeak has been out and about; we know redpolls areabout--so mind those fields and shrubs. From all I have heard, SaltRoad could be a goldmine this winter for finches, or at least that'sthe word on the street. I almost forgot: It's time to watch those Cedar Waxwing flocksfor any straggling bigger friends that might associate with them. Ifyou see any of these stragglers, please remain calm. They are notdangerous. But please report immediately to the proper authorities in thefollowing manner: THE BOHEMIANS ARE HERE, THE BOHEMIANS ARE HERE! It's also that time of the year to begin investigating conifergroves and tangles for wintering owls. Long-eared, Northern Saw-whet,and dare I say other owl species might be lurking in the thickestvegetation you can find. But be warned, be mindful of private property--though that grove might look good, that sign most likely means business.And most importantly: NEVER EVER DISTURB these birds if youdo happen to find one. On too many occasions have these birds been harassedto the point of departing and maybe worse. Sorry for the politics. We nowreturn to our regularly scheduled silliness. Finally, we have a very special category. I'd like to think of itas the wildcard factor. Since birds have wings and are known to usethem (several people have told me this), there is no telling whatcould show up in the Basin. What wish birds would I love to seeappear at some point during the month? Well... How about Varied Thrush at a feeder in Cayuga Heights? Maybe aGreat Gray Owl somewhere south and east of Ithaca? Townsend'sSolitaire in the cedars in the vicinity of Long Point State Park? Novembercould be a great month for vagrants. Cape May has alreadyseen a truly wild bird in the form of Brown-chested Martin. Who knows? As much as I always speak of crazy birds and wish lists andpossibilities, as much as I always think of new areas in the Basinthat might produce that true rarity, everything boils down to getting intothe field and searching high and low through the smallest patchof dead goldenrod as well as the largest flock of starlings. The birds areout there; all we have to do is find them. I hope to see you all "out there."

(Andy Farnsworth leads professional bird tours when he's not touringwith his band, Mectapus. It's doubtful that he will see you all "outthere," since he doesn't appear to be living in the Basin anymore...)

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ! KICKIN' TAIL! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What better way to prove you're gonna take the whole can of worms than bybeing featured in an interview exclusively for The Cup? "Kickin' Tail"brings well deserved honor and recognition to the Cupper whohas glassed, scoped, scanned, driven, climbed, dug, or fiddled his/her wayto the top of the David Cup list.

This month's leader is--again--Geo Kloppel! What incite does he havefor the rest of us?

THE CUP: Evenin', Geo. Uhh, you're still on top...

KLOPPEL: That must mean it was a sluggish month for others, MattYoung excepted of course.

THE CUP: Actually, it was slow for Matt, too. He only got in 30 daysof birding in October, instead of the whole month. How'd you stayahead, given his relative fanaticism?

KLOPPEL: We all labor under the same constraining circumstance - a limitedlist of birds expectable or at all likely to be found in our region. As theyear winds down, the tallies of the most diligent and successful searcherscan be expected to begin crowding together under this common ceiling. Iadded just one bird in all October, and some of the ones I'm still missingare now gone for sure. In short, I can'ttake any credit at all for maintaining the lead through October...

THE CUP: No kidding!

KLOPPEL: Matt out-did me at least two-to-one for the month! And those whowere farther behind no doubt have made even more impressivegains. In fact I'm sure even as we speak that I've already beensurpassed.

THE CUP: Yes, Tringa, the McGowan's new dog, did especially well.On the subject of Mr. Young, some thought that the over-heard conversationwe ran as last month's KT was actually something madeup by Allison! Please set them straight!

KLOPPEL: You mean he denied the tete-a-tete at the 200 Club? Doesn'tsurprise me! He took rather a duffing on that occasion, didn't he? But itwas by no design of mine that eavesdroppers picked up the conversation. The"Cone of Silence" was on the blink again! "Toujours c'est la meme chose."My advice to Matt - Get Smart now about the paperazzi - the best way toparry their unforgivable intrusions and lamentable readiness to manipulatethe facts is to beat them at their own game. He will find, if he winds uptaking the David Cup in theend, that he'll become a celebrity and they'll never take theirsnooping eyes off him again, beginning on the very night of theCupper Supper, where the winner might be expected to come up with an answerto Stephen Davies' stunning recitation on an avian theme drawn from thesongs of the Bard of Caledonia, which he delivered in fairand sonorous facsimile of Rab the Rhymer's native dialect. How indeed couldany of this year's contenders measure up to that challenge, who look likefailing by such a wide margin even in the more fundamental task of matchingthe composite totals of previous years?

THE CUP: Allison couldn't have said it better herself! What cd is in yourCD player?

KLOPPEL: You've caught me off-guard: I didn't expect to be in thelead, so I felt at liberty to listen to whatsoever I liked, with no burdenof cultural responsibility. At the moment it's MinnaRaskinen's REVELATIONS (Olarin Musikki CD64)--

THE CUP: Right, that '70's singer, the one that screeched so lovinglyduring the chorus. "Loving You"--wasn't that the song?

KLOPPEL: --a solo album of unique and very creative pieces forkonsertti-kantele, a large, deep-voiced lap-harp that sounds like a pianowith action removed, the strings being plucked with thefingertips directly. In the other player I have a Philips disk of ClaudioArrau doing Liszt's incredibly spacious and evocative Transcendental Etudes.

KLOPPEL: I did not...nor have I heard from anyone who did. I'll haveto wait for The Cup to come out with a review, I guess. You ARE running areview, aren't you?

THE CUP: We got bumped by McGowan's blues review. BB wins out every time.But that Solas concert, whoa! What a band of superstars! Thatfiddle player, those strings were sparking, she was working those stringsso hard. In fact, at one point, she called out desperately,"Is there a violin bow repairer in the house?" Her cry for help wentunanswered. You said something about missing some birds this year.Which ones?

KLOPPEL: For starters I need to add Black Scoter, Oldsquaw, and Brantto have any chance at all of staying in the running. All threedropped in my lap at Stewart Park during mid-day business trips last fall,but that has not worked for me this year, and failing to get to the LoonWatch may have cost me some or even all of them. Lapland Longspur continuesto elude me. No point in blasting the cold marshes for a Sora if I can'teven add those others. I would still travel far for a Snowy Owl. GlaucousGull would be awefully nice for December. Bohemians would stoke my fires.But everyone else will go out forthem too, if they show, so it comes back to the three waterfowl andthe Longspur. Those are the critical vacancies.

THE CUP: What are you doing for Thanksgiving? You won't be cookingup any birds, will you?

KLOPPEL: The best thing about being swamped with work all month hasbeen the feeling that at least I was shoulder to shoulder with therest in the common boat, performing the irksome but necessary toil for thegood of society (bailing, right?), but I bet not many Cuppers will be atwork on Thanksgiving day, as I plan. However, I do have to takea "dinner break", probably even have to cook something, since my daughterand her fiance are coming up from Philly. I'll do some vegetarianspecialty, spanakopita maybe, and open a bottle or two of West DanbyElderberry Wine. Hope your Thanksgiving's enjoyable too.

KLOPPEL: You'll be the first to know. Spanakopita? We'll be by around noon!

Collecting, poring over and analyzing data ... quel [quelle?] bore.This month, I'm returning to my true love -- pure, unadulterated, uselessand glorious probability, the field where you get to posesuch interesting questions as: if 14 people are assembled at randomand each reveals what day of the week he/she was born on, what's theprobability each day is represented at least once? All right, so you don't know what day of the week you were bornon ... as the man said, you could look it up. There are twice as manypeople as days here, so there seems a reasonable chance every daygets covered ... but, as Bill Clinton would be the first to pointout, we haven't defined "reasonable," have we? Now, what's all this got to do with birds? Well, I have to minemy spring migration data one more time. I discovered that Baltimore Oriolehas the narrowest window of arrival dates, namely May 2 toMay 8 [7 days]. I have 14 years of data [1985-98]. Curiously, Ithought, one day [May 4] was missing from the distribution, whichbreaks down as follows:

May 2 - 2 times May 3 - 4 times May 4 - 0 times May 5 - 1 time May 6 - 1 time May 7 - 5 times May 8 - 1 time.

How likely is it to be missing one (or more) days in this situation, I idlywondered. Twenty or so pages of calculations later, I had the answer, to berevealed in the course of our discussion, so hang on and enjoy. The first thing to admit is that this is a *much* harder problem thanany I've discussed to date in this forum, so I'll only sketch an outline ofthe procedure I followed. A miracle of sorts is that I got the right answeron the first try (unless two or more mistakescancelled each other out, which is highly unlikely). This is because Ichecked my work as I went along. At one point I said 126 + 126 = 256, andthat one mistake spread slowly like a cancer through subsequentcalculations, but I caught it before too much damage wasdone. Secondly, we need a better metaphor than days of the week for ageneral discussion (for example, what if it had been an 11-day span ofdates?). So let's follow the most common approach and "go postal": ifwe have m letters to be distributed randomly in n mailboxes, what isthe probability one or more boxes receives no letters? Thus m=14, n=7in the oriole example. As a warm-up, or more precisely as a way to see how to proceed, Ichopped the problem down to manageable size by trying m=5, n=3, i.e.stuffing 5 letters in 3 boxes. Say the letters are numbered 1,2,3,4,5 andthe boxes are A,B,C. Then a symbol such as 135/4/2 will meanletters 1,3,5 go in Box A, 4 in B and 2 in C. And 35/-/124 means 3,5go in A, none go in B and 1,2,4 go in C. Here's how to solve the problem by what is known as [remember,dead white males are responsible for most of this terminology] the "bruteforce" method. Write down *all* possible configurations likethe two above. Then count how many leave 1 or 2 boxes empty (e.g. -/12345/-leaves boxes A and C empty). The ratio of the two is the probability of atleast one empty box. Okay, you can do this! there are only 3^5 = 243 cases ... a manageablenumber. Of them, 90 leave out one box and 3 leave out two,so 93/243 = 38% is the desired probability. Turning it around, there's thusa 62% chance all three boxes receive at least one letter. Goahead, try it! You're already wasting time reading the Cup -- what'sanother hour or two? Surely, you say, there has to be a short cut -- a clever way to figureout the probability without writing down every case. Well, not really.True, you don't literally have to do so, but you do have to figure out allthe possible ways to break up 5 into the sum of 3 or fewer numbers and thenfigure out how many cases correspond to each of these (e.g. 13/25/4corresponds to 5 = 2+2+1, but so does 25/13/4). The problem is notoriouslyintractable in the arbitrary case. However, there *is* a giant shortcut if you're willing to settle foran approximation to the exact answer. Calculus provides anot-too-outrageously-complicated magic formula into which you just plug mand n and out it pops. The beauty of it is that the larger m and n are, thebetter the approximation. That is, just as the exact calculations get moreand more exhausting to do by hand, the approximations get better andbetter.It doesn't take too long before they're good to within 1%, then0.1%, etc. Returning to the problem, here's a question to ponder. Fiveletters in 3 boxes isn't quite as "good" as the 2:1 ratio of the original14 letters in 7 boxes, as far as trying to fill all boxes is concerned. Inthe 5:3 case, we have a 62% chance all boxes are filled. Shouldn't thatimprove in the 14:7 case? Take it a giant step further: suppose youassemble 730 = 2x365 people at random and find out everyone's birthday.What is the chance every day of the year isrepresented at least once? The answer is, there isn't a snowball's chance in hell this willhappen. If it did, you could categorically pronounce the experiment rigged.You'll win the lottery ten times before this ever occurs!In fact, even in the 14:7 example, the probability of filling all boxesdeclines considerably from the 5:3 case. As I mentioned, I did all thecalculations (and if you're wondering, "by hand" *does* include use of acalculator, or I'd still be working on it!). The results (rounded off tothe nearest percent) are:

# boxes filled probability

7 37% 6 47% 5 15% 4 1% 1,2,3 0%

(the final probability isn't of course actually 0, but it rounds off to that). Notice that for the oriole data, the most likely outcome did occur: 6of the 7 dates were represented. Since I have all the numbers, further questions can be answered. Forexample, how likely is the oriole distribution of 2,4,0,1,1,5,1(i.e 2 times on the first date, 4 times on the second, etc.)? Remember thiscan happen in far more than one way: any 2 of the 14 letters cango in the first box, any 4 of the remaining 12 in the second, etc.). Thereare a mere 15,135,120 ways this can happen. I say "mere" because the*total* number of possibilities is 7^14 = 678,223,072,849, and the ratio ofthese two is 0.00223%. We can up the probability a bit by being less stringent and ask forthe same distribution of letters in any order (i.e. 1,1,0,5,2,4,1 or5,4,2,1,1,1,0). This increases the number of cases by a factor of 840 to12,713,500,800, which now works out to a pretty respectable 1.87%Extrapolate this to the big birthday problem ... imagine how likely itwould be there to get many days with 5 or more birthdays, thus forcing manydays with 1 or 0 to balance out! If you're still skeptical about that birthday problem, here's a way,perhaps, to see how hopeless it is to expect every day to turn up. Let meconcede just about the whole thing and suppose that after 720 people werepolled, all but one day had turned up (this is actually just about asimpossible, but I'll grant you it for the sake of argument). Now you stillhave 10 chances to get that one silly remaining day! But whoa ... thechances any of these 10 people were born on that day is only 1/365, whichain't too good. Even 10/365, which is actually more than the actualprobability one of the ten was born on the missing day, is less than 3%.Fuhgedabouddit! One more good, final, question: what's the most likely distribution ofdates? Since 14 = 2X7, congratulate yourself if you guessed 2,2,2,2,2,2,2... that's right! Of course, it still isn't very likely, since there's somany cases, but it is more likely than any other one particulardistribution. Test yourself, if you know some basic probability tricks, toconfirm that this distribution can happen in 681,080,400 ways (compare withonly 15,135,120 for the orioledistribution). It works out to 0.1% ... a number that's at least on thecharts, compared to 2,2,2, ...,2 for the birthday problem, which would be adecimal point followed by a gazillion zeroes!

(Karl David is [still] a mathematics professor on sabbatical at Cornell. Heloves numbers.)

羨 little bird' told us you are trying to work up the courage to takeaerobics classes with us. We strongly encourage you to do so,Mr. Wells! The women get tired of looking at the same few male bodiesday after day (as great as some of them admittedly are). We need moremen! You are especially encouraged to wear tights. See you soon!'"

--Generously Forwarded on Behalf of Courtside by Karl David

Scrawl of Fame II

Hey hombres!--

I am filing my last totals report for DC '98, which includes allthe birds I had up to Aug 3rd, when we finally left Ithaca for the wildWest. Don't ask me what bird 200 was. Sorry we weren't in touch morebefore leaving. Between finishing a PhD and making plans to move, wegot kinda bogged down towards the end there. Once again, sorry for notsaying goodbye. We were really hoping to see everyone before we left,but never got the chance. Hope you are well and that all is sweetness and light in Ithaca.Sounds like some interesting birds have shown up there recently. CurlewSandpiper I heard? Sorry I wasn't there for that one. We are settling injust fine here in Frisco. I have fallen in with a good crowd of localbirders and the local scene is very invigorating! Ticked off my lifeYellow-green Vireo this morning, here in the city. We're going intocompetition with the Pt Reyes posse next! Pelagic is coming up in a coupleof weeks - my birthday present this year and I can't wait! OK, I'll not distract the venerable Cup editors any longer withextra-Basin banter. But do drop us a line, and please come visit anytime!I'm learning the local hotspots and would be delighted toshow Cuppers the sights! Adios muchachos,

Stephen [Davies]

(If you have an opinion--or insider information--about the art,science, and/or esthetics of birding or birding-related topics,write it up for the Scrawl of Fame.)

Because birders suffer so many unique trials and tribulations, TheCup has graciously provided Cuppers with a kind, sensitive andintuitive columnist, Dear Tick, to answer even the most profound questions,like these...

DEAR TICK:

When I am doing my tower kill survey, if I find a dead bird that Ihave not yet seen in the Basin this year, can I count it? After all,it had to have been alive at some point to have arrived dead at my tower. --Just Wondering from Mt. Pleasant

Dear Just Wondering:

You know that iceman they pulled out of the Alps or some godforsakenplace over there in Europe? At some point, he was alive, too, but Ibet you wouldn't date him now.

(Send your questions for Dear Tick to The Cup at jw32@cornell.edu)

""""""""" CUP QUOTES """"""""

"You need a [Buddy Guy] connection, Geo? What about the Bird Cup Bluescolumn in The Cup?! Fie on you!'--Allison Wells (from The Cup 3.9)

"Of course I never for a moment forgot about the Blues in The Cup. ButI knew the monthly 'IT'S OUT!' message was overdue. Though you were notin my line of sight, in my mind's eye I pictured you streaking for thebasket, and when I saw the opening, I quickly lofted the ball into thedunk-zone. Sure enough, there you were, and you slammed it home. Nice."

--Geo Kloppel

"I take it you didn't receive this message last month, since my totalsdidn't appear in the last Cup. Here it is again ope you are all well.The birding here has been amazing. Last month, we took a pelagic onmy birthday and ran into the Northern Hemisphere's secondGreat-winged Petrel, about 15 miles out of Monterey. Other highlightsfor me over the last month have included Pacific Golden Plover, lots ofThayer's Gulls, 6 species of shearwater and Black-footed Albatrosses galore." --Stephen Davies [for more from our former DC CoChamp, see Scrawl of Fame II]

"I'd like to get the electronic newsletter. I'm interested in this DavidCup 礎irding craze.'" --Ben Fambrough

"I'm new to the area. What's this all about?" --Mary Guthrie

"OK, I have held out long enough, please send me the electronic newsletter." --Gladys Birdsall

"Let Allison know, boy, what a great job on the last Cup! HerKloppel voiceover in Kickin' Tail was -- like your subscription rate --priceless, I kid you not. And I've never even met the guy! I mean it, I'mtelling you, let Allison know -- it's like even better than the movies,keeping tabs on these characters through the sharp eyes ofThe Cup. Stunning! Magnificent! Puts the 腺' in Bravura!"

--Andy Leahy

"Lots of telephone wire birds [at Montezuma] and others too tedious tomention. 禅hey' say the pelicans are still there! Believe it or not, thewinner for most beautiful bird (according to me) is Gadwall. It seems likethe marsh ducks are all out for very close inspection, allowing great viewswith just binoculars." --Jon Kloppel

"Yesterday while puppy and I were looking at sparrows in the brushy groveup our hill, a woodcock came whirring up from under our feet. I got a nicelook at the brown patterns on its back, and then it turnedin flight and showed its goofy (but practical) profile. I had to laugh."

--Nancy Dickinson

"While looking unsuccessfully for Bard's Nelson's Sharp-tailed SparrowSunday morning, I was treated to a calling Dickcissel moving south, highover Dryden Lake. I picked up the bird in flight as it circled once andundulated over the trees and out of sight. Birds of all kinds were movingall day in an almost feverish progression through the Dryden area. Itseemed that I couldn't look up without seeing a Sharp-shin or a Red-tailflapping overhead on the cloudy north wind. Geese, ducks, gulls,blackbirds (many Rusty), robins, vultures, other hawks, andYellow-rumped Warblers kept streaming over."

--Ken Rosenberg

"Yesterday morning I went to Sodus and Montezuma. On the way to SodusI took a wrong turn and ended up on a back road near the WilliamsonRod & Gun Club. I found a flock of perhaps 20 Yellow-rumped Warblers,the most warblers I've seen in one spot since last May. It was niceto see so many warblers so late in the year." --Tom Lathrop

"Hey Matt [Young], I just want to publicly thank you for keeping us allupdated. I've only gotten out birding a handful of times since thebeginning of October, and it seems like no one else has gotten out much,either. So keep up the good work, buddy - you seem to have become thecurrent keeper of the flame on Cayugabirds!" --Matt Sarver

"Dryden Lake had 14 Red Breasted Mergansers, along with one lonelyCanvasback, numerous Mallard, one Kingfisher and a flock of around 20Ring-necked Ducks. Come on, Grosbeaks!!!!" --Laura Stenzler

"For those thinking about coming out [to the LoonWatch], the watch beginsat about 15 minutes before sunrise, which today was at 6:40AM and lasts forabout two hours. Normally the large flights begin about one hour aftersunrise, but are very high. Lower flying loons are usually seen during thehalf-hour after sunrise and appear after a large flight the day before(like today ??). The best days are normally the coldest!" --Bob Meade