Path To Prestbury – Outsiders

Being a favourite at the Cheltenham Festival can be a heavy burden to bear.

Simply ask connections about the likes of Dunguib, Kasbah Bliss & Fair Along (beaten twice, both times as favourite at the 2007 festival) and they can explain how quickly hope and expectancy can turn into horror and despair.

Favourites do after all only win about thirty per-cent of the time, so it’s always a good thing to have a few outsiders at the back of your mind.

Punjabi showed in the 2009 Champion Hurdle, as did Special Tiara in last year’s Queen Mother Champion Chase, that any horse can win any race on any given day.

Champion Hurdle

I absolutely love Buveur D’Air. I think that’s a good starting point here.

Buveur D’Air has done everything in his career correctly and he hasn’t tasted defeat since finishing behind Altior and Min in the 2016 Supreme Novices Hurdle. He was electric when winning this race last year in devastating fashion. He pinged every hurdle and is a brilliant equine athlete.

I’ve said numerous times that Buveur D’Air isn’t getting the respect he deserves for his Champion Hurdle win in 2017. He beat My Tent or Yours by the same distance and ran a similar time as to what Annie Power did in 2016. Why he is questioned so much really confuses me.

His performances have been okay this season and nothing more. Get the job done and get out of there in one piece. Exactly as Nicky Henderson, JP McManus and Barry Geraghty would have wanted.

My slight issue with him is simple, this is a really hard race to win back to back.

You have to go back to Hardy Eustace in 2005 to see the last horse to do this. Regardless of how weak this year’s and last year’s renewal may have been or are, it’s still potentially a banana skin for Buveur D’Air as it was in 2012 when Hurricane Fly met a supposedly inferior field when attempting to win this race back to back.

Hurricane Fly was bested by Rock on Ruby and Overturn on that occasion and the rest is history.

I think he should be winning this as he is simply the best horse, but he’s not backable anyway at his current odds, so why not have a small interest at bigger odds?

As discussed last week I can’t have Faugheen at 6/1 in his current pomp, I just can’t. Yorkhill is showing nothing and probably won’t run here, My Tent or Yours is probably booked for a place and Melon isn’t anything great in my estimation.

One horse who has always had the potential and has long been competing at a very high level is the enigmatic Wicklow Brave at 20/1.
Most importantly, Wicklow Brave has decent Cheltenham Festival credentials.

In 2014, he was sixth in a decent Supreme in which the terrific and ill-fated Vautour waltzed to victory. He suffered that day for trying to go with the winner and faded late on. Still an admirable effort in a high-class race.

In 2015, Wicklow Brave was an easy winner off 11-4 of the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and he was faultless on the day, beating a competitive field easily.

In 2017, he actually ran a much better race than it looks on paper when seventh in the Champion Hurdle behind Buveur D’Air after throwing away his chance when losing several lengths at the start of the race.

Two hurdles out, and Wicklow Brave came swinging into the straight going strongly. It was just at that point though that the lengths he had thrown away at the start cost him and his run petered out eventually finishing seventh. It was still an eye-catching run on the day and he backed it up at Punchestown in the following weeks.

One month after this he then went on to win the Punchestown Festival equivalent, beating Arctic Fire, Labaik and My Tent Or Yours.

Wicklow Brave has a tendency to sometimes throw the rattle out of the pram and not take off at the start when he should – and were he to do this again, he would cost himself the chance of a surprise victory.

At Punchestown, Patrick Mullins rather made his mind up for him and went from the front. I hope the performance on that day was the beginning of a new, more refined Wicklow Brave as he’s not a million miles behind these on his best form.

He’s only nine, has shown in the past he goes well fresh and there are much worse 20/1 shots than Wicklow Brave in a rather weak renewal of the Champion Hurdle.

Bet on The Champion Hurdle

Odds are provided at time of writing, please check your betslip to confirm they have not changed before betting.

Champion Chase

It was tremendous to see Altior again at the weekend at Newbury. He was superb.

Altior is simply different gear to anything else around at the moment over two miles. He was running on heavy ground, after nearly three hundred days off and still laughed at Politologue. It was a freakish performance.

I know Min was impressive at Christmas, but I just don’t see anything getting near Altior.

He is simply too good.

I said last week that I thought Politologue was making hay whilst the good horses were away, and that I just don’t believe he is anywhere near Altior, or even Min for that matter. I believe that statement was franked last weekend.

I think Min and particularly Politologue will obviously try to take on Altior, be left in his wake and they then may be susceptible to a cannily ridden outsider vying for a place.

Therefore, I think the Queen Mother is a perfect chance to have a go at a big price each way and Ordinary World meets the criteria.

I think when you run through the field, it’s crazy Ordinary World is as big a price as he is. He’s one of the few with placed form around Cheltenham (2017 Arkle) and whilst I can’t see him laying a glove on Altior, he has every right to place in this. I’d compare him favourably on ability to Politologue.

Last time out he was looking poised to challenge Min very strongly when trying to headbutt the second last fence at Leopardstown. He lost his chance completely that day after that mistake, but it would have been very interesting to see where Ordinary World would have finished next to Min had he avoided that error.

Ordinary World realistically doesn’t have much of a chance against Altior, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Davy Russell was able to grab a place with Henry De Bromhead’s charge at 33/1. There really is not much of a difference in terms of ability between the rest of the field, and Ordinary World has every right to grab some place money.

I’ve been operating here under the assumption that Douvan doesn’t run, but with an entry at the weekend I’m happy to leave this bet sit for a week or two. If Douvan was to turn up here, it would drastically change the complexion of this race.

The next four weeks are going to be very intriguing as to where we sit with a few of the Mullins and Rich Ricci brigade. The excitement is hitting fever pitch.

Bet on The Champion Chase

Odds are provided at time of writing, please check your betslip to confirm they have not changed before betting.

Stayers Hurdle

As I’ve pointed out already, this year’s Stayers is a poor renewal.

Sam Spinner is not a world beater, Supasundae is a not a guaranteed stayer and whilst I love Penhill for this race, his participation is not guaranteed.

I’ve backed The World’s End for this race, and I’m getting more and more enthused about this as the weeks have gone on.

As we know, he was on the cusp of running a massive race in the 2017 Albert Bartlett when coming asunder two out. That form has been franked by the likes of Monalee, Wholestone and Elegant Escape this season and I think we can take hope from his performances this year on ground he just doesn’t operate on.

Trainer Tom George believes The Worlds End will not be seen at his best until the ground dries out in the spring and has been more than content with the seven-year-old’s efforts so far this season on unsuitable going.

The World’s End was fourth to Sam Spinner in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in December and filled the same position behind Agrapart in the Cleeve at Cheltenham in January.

“He ran a good, solid race on ground he didn’t like. What I’m pleased about is, even though he’s not enjoying it, he is still putting an effort in and he’s not disgracing himself,” Tom George confirmed after his run at Cheltenham.

Odds are provided at time of writing, please check your betslip to confirm they have not changed before betting.

National Hunt Chase (Four Miler).

This race has to take a proper shape just yet, but were Dounikos to turn up here he would be a shade big at 20/1.

As I stated in my Dublin Racing Festival review last week, Dounikos ran a huge race in fourth in the Flogas Novices’ Chase. He was taken off his feet three out, but kept going relentlessly showing himself to have a wealthy reserve of stamina and finished a close fourth – not at all far behind the winner Monalee.

That’s high-class form and it’s not the only strong form he boasts.

At Limerick before this he beat Arbre De Vie & Tombstone (Al Boum Photo fell when looking a danger) with a degree of comfort when underestimated by the market at 14/1 and again before this he was overlooked in a seemingly competitive field when beating subsequently impressive Thyestes winner Monbeg Notorious at 28/1.

Of course, this form screams that he may just be an RSA contender, but he has shown a serious reserve of stamina in his races and I think he’s achieved more over fences than most of these. If he was to end up in this race, he could well go off favourite.

20/1 is a very big price and is probably worth taking a chance here on Dounikos’ participation. It would be no surprise were Gordon Elliott and Lisa O’Neill able to repeat their win of 12 months previous with Tiger Roll were Dounikos to take his place in this.

Bet on The National Hunt Chase

Odds are provided at time of writing, please check your betslip to confirm they have not changed before betting.