Winds will be subsiding this evening has the pressure gradientweakens between low pressure systems. Mostly clear skies willstart the night, but will quickly become mostly cloudy toovercast as the clipper low fast approaches from the west.Already beginning to see light echoes in western PA as warmadvection commences there. This warm advection is progged toto start in the middle levels after 03z west of the Hudson Riverand 05-06z east of the Hudson River. Light snow will overspreadthe region from west to east with this warm advection. Main vortmax associated with the clipper will swing around the base ofthe mean upper trough and enhance lift, especially 09z-12z. Thesurface low translates south of the area during this time,which could help to enhance snowfall on Long Island. Thesefeatures quickly translate east as the upper trough, vort max,and surface low move offshore 13-15z. Lift all also bemaximized in the dendritic growth zone between 750 and 900 mbfrom around 09z to 13z across eastern Long Island.

Models have continued to come into better agreement with theabove scenario with the biggest uncertainty lies within themesoscale details, mainly across Long Island. Latest thinking isfor around a tenth of an inch of liquid across the interior,increasing to around two tenths across Long Island. There may bea shadow effect over NYC and NE NJ as the surface low movesdownslope of the higher terrain to the west.

For snowfall accumulation, 2 to 3 inches are forecast in theadvisory area across Long Island with 1 to 2 inches elsewhere.There could be locally higher amounts with any enhancement orbanding on Long Island, so it would not be surprising if a fewspots reach closer to 4 inches. SREF plumes, NAM, NAM-3km, andHRRR all support this forecast thinking. The snow should be ahigher ratio, powdery snow, potentially around 15:1 near thecoast and 17-18:1 across the interior.

The snow ends on the east end around 15z with skies quicklyclearing from west to east. It will become breezy as highpressure builds in from the west Thursday afternoon. Highs wellbelow normal in the upper 20s and lower 30s are forecast

Developing low pressure will move up the east coast late Friday into early Saturday.

High pressure builds in from the south Saturday into Sunday

a low pressure system Sunday night into Monday.

High pressure builds back on Tuesday.

A clipper low will pass south of the area on Thursday bringing a low chancefor snow showers across the area, with only light accumulations expected.High temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

A coastal low is then expected to move up the east coast Friday night andinto early Saturday. How much snow we get from this system depends on howclose the low tracks near the coast.