The widget generates CMIP5 or PMIP3 model outputs for specific countries and a temperature change map of the world. You can also spit out plots of each model. And these outputs display the actual temperature ranges rather than anomalies.

Since Greenland is such a great climatic playground, I started playing around with it.

Greenland Stays Frozen in an RCP8.5 Bad Science Fiction Nightmare

The first thing I did was to hit Greenland with RCP8.5.

Greenland RCP8.5 1980-2004 vs 2071-2095 –> 5.1 °C

While the histogram indicates a 5.1 °C rise in the average annual surface temperature. It’s thought that the Sangamonian (Eeemian) interglacial was at least 5 °C warmer than today. However, most of that 5.1 °C rise appears to be in winter and the average July temperature is projected to still be below freezing, only 2-3 °C warmer than the 1980-2004 mean.

Since we know that RCP8.5 is just bad science fiction and that global temperatures are behaving more like RCP2.6 to RCP4.5…

“And Now For Something Completely Different”

“A comparison of 32 climate models and observations. The observations are from weather balloon and satellite data. The two observational methods are independent of one another and support each other. The plot is after Dr. John Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (Christy 2016).”

Andy noted the following:

INM-CN4 is labeled and it, alone, is tracking the observations with enough accuracy, yet it does not predict dangerous temperatures in the future or any significant human influence on climate.

This drew some standard ad hominem and/or unsupported dismissals of Dr. Christy’s work and derision of INM-CM4. So I downloaded UAH 6.0 and HadCRUT4 and plotted 5-yr running means at the same scale as Dr. Christy’s 2016 plot.

HadCRUT4 and UAH 6.0 plotted on Christy 2016.

UAH 6.0 generally plots within 0.1 °C of the average of 3 satellite datasets, closest to INM-CM4. HadCRUT4 plots well-below the model-mean closest to the only model that runs hotter than INM-CM4. Note that there’s not a lot of difference between HadCRUT4 and UAH 6.0. (0.1-0.2 °C is not a lot of difference).

Here are the RCP8.5 and RCP 4.5 outputs for INM-CM4 in Greenland:

Greenland INM-CM4 model, RCP8.5. Greenland still frozen in 2100 AD, barely warmer than the coldest part of the Holocene, the Little Ice Age.

Greenland INM-CM4 model, RCP4.5. Greenland still frozen in 2100 AD, barely warmer than the coldest part of the Holocene, the Little Ice Age.

Both models indicate that Greenland won’t be significantly warmer in 2100 than it was in 1850. Almost all of the warming comes from an increase in the minimum temperatures.

1850 was very cold by Holocene standards.

Alley’s reconstruction ends in about 1850… only very slightly warmer than the coldest Holocene temperatures.

There ya go…More proof that David is “colluding” with the Russians..!
What ? …That’s not what David said ?
So who cares, it’s good enough for the MSM…and all liberal/socialist/democrat…etc….
( Do I really need a “sarc” tag ?)

Climate Model Upgraded: INMCM5 Under the Hood
Posted on October 2, 2017

A previous analysis Temperatures According to Climate Models showed that only one of 42 CMIP5 models was close to hindcasting past temperature fluctuations. That model was INMCM4, which also projected an unalarming 1.4C warming to the end of the century, in contrast to the other models programmed for future warming five times the past.

Latitude, not David but I researched this when writing Blowing Smoke. In a laymans nutshell, the ‘accurate’ Russian model has more ocean thermal inertia and lower water vapor feedback. The former is consistent with ARGO observations and what is known about deep thermohaline circulation, the latter is consistent with humidity sensor bias corrected radiosonde readings in the mid to upper troposphere (not a lot of humidity up where its real cold so there is a correctable by sensor model dry bias). Wrote up the latter with footnotes to relevant papers in essay ‘Humidity is still all Wet’ in ebook Blowing Smoke. Wrote up the humidity sensor bias and correction methods and did a deeper dive into erroneous AR4 model humidity assumptions in the long climate chapter of The Arts of Truth.

To me the kink in Andy May’s graph at around 1993/4 seems to indicate that there must have been some general change in the algorithms/methodology used in all the models with the exception of IMO- CM4 ; for suddenly they all seem to start running hot. Perhaps they were worried by the preceding 5 year temperature drop and needed to boost the agenda a bit. A touch of Groupthink ? After all they all look over their shoulders at the competition comparisons.

I just completed an online, real time Face-book survey of millenniums (under 30) who think “climate change” is a severe problem that must be solved NOW ! When asked why they held that belief (religion), 97% replied that their teacher told them, so it must be true !.. The other 3% believed that Unicorn farts will empower their generation ! As of 10 minutes ago, I was bocked by Face-book?

Ross McKitrick created the following website of temps in cities throughout Canada with actual temps. The upward slopes in the graphs on this page appear to reflect many of Canada’s largest cities….when you get to other smaller cities? Not so much.

While it may be impossible to melt the interiors of the ice sheets, the margins of the Greenland ice sheet do experience melting and the top few mm of most of the ice sheet can experience melting during periods of abnormally warm temperatures.

So if global warming was causing Greenland to melt from the top, how could 91 meters of ice form on top of those planes? That means every year Greenland is adding snow/ice from the top not losing it. So whatever the temperatures are at top, and they are always cold, except in a very few days in the summer., then ice is not being lost from the top. Calving of ice goes on from the glaciers descending to the seas but that process has been going on for millions of years. 8000 years ago when temperatures were 5C warmer in Greenland it took 3000 years to melt 20% of Greenland’s ice. Greenland ice melting is another BIG LIE of climate science.

There are places where the Greenland ice sheet melts from the bottom due to geothermal heat flow and places where it doesn’t. A few mm of periodic surface melt isn’t going to prevent Greenland from accumulating ice. The volume of Holocene ice appears to be as large or larger than the volume of Pleistocene ice. In much of Central Greenland about 12,000 years worth of Holocene ice is thicker than over 100,000 years of Pleistocene ice. This is due to the fact that glacial stages (AKA ice ages) are very cold and very dry. The snow accumulation rate during the Holocene has been much higher than that of the last Pleistocene glacial stage.

Vinther et al., 2009 reconstructed the elevations of four ice core sites over the Holocene. There has been very little change in elevation of the two interior ice core sites (NGRIP and GRIP), while the two outboard sites (Camp Century and DYE3) have lost 546 and 342 m of ice respectively.

“Our thoughts were that the tails would be sticking out of the snow,” Taylor says with a grin. “We’d sweep snow off the wings and shovel them out a little bit, crank the planes up, and fly them home. Of course, it didn’t happen.”

[…]

This past July 15, fifty years to the day after his crash landing, Brad McManus found himself standing once again on the ice cap. “I must say, it hadn’t changed a bit. It was the same exactly as it was when we were there,” he says.

Richard Taylor echoes this observation: “It’s totally featureless. It doesn’t change.” But when Taylor and Epps formed the Greenland Expedition Society in 1981 and traveled that year to the coordinates the B-17 crew members had recorded, they discovered change did come to the ice cap. The airplanes abandoned there 39 years earlier were nowhere in sight.

In retrospect, it seems obvious that the airplanes would be buried under a good deal of ice. But no one was prepared for how much. “That year the tail wasn’t sticking out, so they were ten feet under,” Pat Epps says, recalling the team’s confidence. But they didn’t find them on their second visit to Greenland later that year, or their third, or their fourth.

[…]

Within days, the radar teams had pinpointed the exact location of all eight airplanes. And it immediately became obvious why they hadn’t been located earlier. The shifting ice had carried the airplanes about two miles from their original location. And a high-pressure steam probe revealed that they lay beneath 264 feet of solid ice.

The Glacier Girl crash site is in an area where there’s a little bit of summer melting on occasion. Tasiilaq, which is not too far away, gets about 1 meter of precipitation per year, with most of it coming in winter as snow. A little bit of melting and a lot of snowfall can bury a P-38 under a lot of ice fairly quickly.

While ice accumulates and moves around in the interior, some of it melts around the margins. 2012 was the most intense melt season on record (since 1979)…

“In much of Central Greenland about 12,000 years worth of Holocene ice is thicker than over 100,000 years of Pleistocene ice. This is due to the fact that glacial stages (AKA ice ages) are very cold and very dry.”

Wrong. This is mostly due to the way ice flows in an icesheet, which compacts and “squeezes out” the deeper layers. It is not unusual to have half the total age of an ice core in the lowest few percent of the core. If you check the antarctic cores, which span several glacial cycles you will find that while accumulation is larger during interglacials the older ones are proportionally as compressed as the neighboring glacials

No, not in the short run. Glaciers are driven by gravity, not temperature, and will keep on calving for a long time even if losing mass. Of course the calving front will in such cases retreat until it reaches the shore and much slower peripheral melting takes over. This will slow down glacier movement and make the glacier considerably steeper.

This is why the ice in north-central Greenland was actually slightly thicker during the Eeemian when the ice-front had mostly retreated onto dry land.

Where the ocean is ‘upside down’ is essential for showing us how fast …
The San Luis Obispo Tribune-Nov 17, 2018
During the summer months, copious amounts of freshwater melt from the glaciers of Greenland

Climate change is more extensive and worse than once thought
Phys.Org-Nov 29, 2018
They missed how much ice sheets in West Antarctica and Greenland would melt

That is – of course – blatant look-ism.
Utterly unacceptable.
Equivalent to – well, I guess – all the other isms we are so troubled by and all seriously seek to overturn.
Don’t we? Every minute of our waking hours?
Don’t we all??

Not to nitpick, but you are plotting mid-tropospheric and surface temperature together, and they are not the same thing, as you would notice if you were in the mid-troposphere now.

The thing is that mid-troposphere and surface temperature are supposed to behave slightly differently in response to increased GHGs.

That Greenland doesn’t significantly melt even if global warming continues for many centuries is a well established fact. It would take several thousands of years of global warming to make a significant dent in that ice block. East Antarctica isn’t even warming. Sorry, the Ice Age is here to stay. We ain’t running out of ice rocks for our whiskeys. The Anthropocene is a joke, at least from a climate perspective.

For permission, contact us. See the About>Contact menu under the header.

All rights reserved worldwide.

Some material from contributors may contain additional copyrights of their respective company or organization.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on WUWT. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it. This notice is required by recently enacted EU GDPR rules, and since WUWT is a globally read website, we need to keep the bureaucrats off our case!
Cookie Policy