Paths to power for a party challenger

If there is a leadership challenge by Kevin Rudd, or even a change of leader in the next two weeks, there are several scenarios that could play out.
Photo: Glenn Hunt

by
James Massola | Political correspondent

Speculation that
Julia Gillard
could be removed as Prime Minister and replaced by her predecessor,
Kevin Rudd
, is rampant on the eve of the final two sitting weeks of the 43rd Parliament.

If there is a challenge or even a change of leader in the next two weeks, there are several scenarios that could play out.

The first, and arguably most likely, is Ms Gillard could be “tapped on the shoulder" by her erstwhile supporters and asked to step aside. This is the “
Bob Hawke
-
Paul Keating
" scenario.

In June 1991, after unsuccessfully challenging Mr Hawke, Mr Keating went to the backbench and the government’s political and economic fortunes continued to head south.

In December, as support for Mr Hawke ebbed away in the caucus, a delegation of six senior ministers including
Kim Beazley
,
Robert Ray
and
Gareth Evans
approached Mr Hawke and asked him to resign.

The ALP’s longest-serving prime minister told them where to go. But his intransigence couldn’t save him and a week later, Mr Keating challenged and triumphed.

It is reasonable to expect Ms Gillard to show her political mettle, again, and demand that she be “blasted" out of office, in the event that senior factional leaders decide to tap her on the shoulder en masse.

To give effect to that, a caucus ballot for the leadership would have to be held. A caucus ballot can be called on in two ways. The first and usual way is for the Labor leader to call for one, as happened in the March, 2013, February, 2012, and June, 2010, Rudd-Gillard contests (though only one actual ballot was held). A ballot can also be held if a petition is signed by one third of the (102-member) caucus.

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In practice, ALP leaders call on the ballot to avoid looking politically weak; Beazley in December 2006 and
Simon Crean
in June 2003 took this route.

There is an outside chance that Ms Gillard could simply resign if it becomes apparent that her supporter base has deserted her, as Mr Rudd did in June 2010.

She could even look to engineer a handover to a “not Kevin" candidate, as Mr Crean did when he resigned in November 2003 and delivered
Mark Latham
the numbers to defeat Mr ­Beazley.

If such a scenario were to be repeated, Bill Shorten would be the frontrunner to take over as leader – but such a sequence of events is very unlikely.

More outlandishly, another MP could follow Mr Crean’s lead from March and put themselves forward as deputy. But that bungled attempt will be fresh in MPs’ minds.

In 29 consecutive Nielsen polls since the August 2010 election, Labor under Ms Gillard has trailed
Tony Abbott
’s Coalition in the two-party-preferred vote. Ms Gillard’s supporters insist publicly that she is not going anywhere, but Mr Shorten and other senior MPs are under immense pressure from spooked backbenchers to engineer a change of leader.

Were Mr Shorten to ally himself with Mr Rudd – again, there is no sign that this is about to occur – then the political calculus would change.

Labor’s messy recent history of leadership changes, which began in 1991 with the pair of challenges to Mr Hawke by Mr Keating, set in place a precedent.

The ALP has had eight leaders in the 22 years since 1991, a change every 2¾ years. Include the four failed leadership challenges in that time and a challenge or change at the top happens less than every two years. Whether the conditions exist for a change in the next two weeks remains to be seen.