But these fellows (there have been no women so far) are second only to the president in determining the economic welfare of this country. Sometimes they seem more important than White House residents, who tend to come and go with the mood of the electorate.

Fed chairmen are appointed, not elected, and that's a good thing. They can't win popularity contests and do a good job too.

"It is the responsibility of the Fed to take away the punch bowl just as the party is getting good," said William McChesney Martin, a Fed chairman first appointed by Truman and still in the post when Nixon was elected.

Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman appointed by Bush and hanging on through Clinton, continues the tradition.

Fed is inflation fighter

The U.S. economy is getting better and better, partly because the Fed has - in effect - been printing money at a hectic pace for three years. Now Greenspan and his colleagues are taking away the punch bowl.

Twice this year, once on Feb. 4 and again last week, Greenspan and the Fed announced they were raising short-term interest rates. In effect, they will print less money.

As a result, many people face higher payments on adjustable rate mortgages, new car purchases and small-business loans. The hope - expressed by both Greenspan and Clinton - is that the action will keep inflation and long-term interest rates low.

Inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods, and the Fed does not want to be accused of printing too much money. (Actually, it adds or drains funds from the banking system, but the effect is the same.) Bankers, who tend to raise rates faster than they lower them, got the message quickly. They raised the prime rate for the first time in five years, upping it to 6.25 percent.

It is fashionable to call the two interest rate-hikes "preemptive strikes" against inflation, but the analogy seems flawed. No one can see the enemy yet. Measured by either consumer or producer prices, inflation remains low.

Greenspan, however, is relying on scouts - prices of gold and commodities - who have brought back reports of incipient inflation from across the valley and over the hill. Clinton says, "Good going, fellow."

Stocks, bonds are spooked

But I wonder. The bond markets, which reflect the worldwide consensus about prospects of inflation in the United States, seem more concerned about inflation now than before the Fed acted. Long-term interest rates are up and bond prices are down.

Greenspan was the hero in the aftermath of the '87 stock market crash, supplying all the money any bank or brokerage house needed to survive the chaos. He's received high marks since from Republicans and Democrats alike.

But so far Greenspan looks like a dunce for his efforts in '94. Both stocks and bonds have been spooked by his strikes. It's early in the year, however, and if corporate profits rise as expected and inflation stays low, the business community may still rate him as a hero.

What does all this mean to the South Florida economy?

Not much for a while. History shows that it takes many months, usually years, for interest-rate hikes to curtail economic growth. The economy is like a big ocean liner that changes direction very slowly.

But eventually higher interest rates stifle construction and other business activity. The trick is for Greenspan to slow things down without causing the economic engine to stall.