January 29, 2008

Super Tuesday poll round-up, Jan. 29

Averaging the six most recent national polls, RealClearPolitics has Hillary Clinton at 43 percent, Barack Obama at 33 percent, and John Edwards at 14 percent. According to polls in individual Super Tuesday states, Clinton is running best in Massachusetts (59 percent) and New York (50 percent); Obama is strongest in Georgia (41 percent) and Illinois (51 percent); and Edwards is highest in Missouri (28 percent) and Oklahoma (27 percent). California and New Jersey are the biggest battleground states, where Clinton is now running close to her national average.

On the Republican side, RCP has John McCain at 26 percent, Mike Huckabee at 20 percent, and Mitt Romney at 19 percent. McCain seems to be doing especially well in Super Tuesday states (unless there's been a very recent drop in national support that isn't yet reflected in state polls). He has 40 percent in Arizona, 31 percent in California, 39 percent in Connecticut, 31 percent in Illinois, 32 percent in New York, and 37 percent in Oklahoma.

Huckabee's support is concentrated in the South: Alabama (27 percent), Georgia (34 percent), Missouri (27 percent), and Tennessee (30 percent). Romney runs best in Colorado (43 percent) and Massachusetts (50 percent), but he's also expected to do very well in Montana and Utah (no recent polls available). That leaves Minnesota and New Jersey as key battleground states.