Everything College Football from Scott Bilo, National Football Foundation and Football Writers Association Member. CFB Hall of Fame voter. Covering FBS and FCS College Football. Have appeared on ESPN 1100 Las Vegas and on ESPN 105.9 Jackson, MS. Keith Harding Lead Statistician Co-Editor, Dina Bilo Social Networking Director, Co-Editor. Contact us at powerratedsports@yahoo.com
Married to Dina (15 years), Dad to Evelyn, Elvis, Trixy, and Steve!

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

College Football 2015: Games of the Week Volume 3

We are coming up on conference play already for the 2015
season, which means that with every passing week the stakes get higher and
higher. There are a few epic showdowns this week in both FBS and FCS football.
Let’s take a look at what’s at stake…

Thursday

Clemson at Louisville

Louisville is on the verge of going 0-3 for the first
time in forever, and also for the first time in forever it seems as if the
Cardinals are clueless at QB. Look for Clemson’s defense to exploit the
Cardinals deficiencies in the passing game, and drop the Cardinals against the
ropes moving forward.

Pick: Clemson

Saturday

Ole Miss at Alabama

The Rebels took one last fall from the Tide, and Alabama
is looking to return the favor in Tuscaloosa in what should be a showdown for
position in the loaded SEC West. Ole Miss is coming off of a first two weeks
that saw them score 70 in each game, only the second team in FBS history to
ever pull the feat. They won’t make it a third week this time around. Look for
the Tide to try and control tempo with their power run game and Derrick Henry
this week, and keep Ole Miss from running up and down the field.

Pick: Alabama

Stanford at USC

No team in the last decade loves upsetting USC more than
Stanford, but Stanford is not as strong as they have been the last several
seasons. The Trojans are coming off of whipping a pair of cupcakes in Arkansas
State and Idaho, so we really know nothing about them, whereas Stanford has had
their struggles with Northwestern followed by a convincing win over a
struggling UCF program. You never can tell with this series, so look for a bit
of a dog fight if Stanford can kick up their run game.

Pick: USC

Georgia Tech at Notre Dame

Let’s be real here, Tech hasn’t played anyone worthy yet
in wins over Alcorn State and Tulanethat saw the Jackets score 60 or more in back to back games for the
first time since 1921. Notre Dame could be reeling a bit, however, after losing
several starters to injury, including QB Malik Zaire. Look for the Jackets to
up the tempo, and use offset option plays to keep a vulnerable Irish D on their
tails all day.

Pick: Georgia Tech

BYU at UCLA

The Bruins are coming off of a couple of strong
performances with the domination of Virginia and UNLV. BYU has largely won on
luck in wins over Nebraska and Boise State, so could their luck be about to run
out? I would say that’s possible. Boise State was down, and the Huskers were
vulnerable in those two Cougar wins, but I’m not taking anything away from
them. I am looking for a struggle early before UCLA pulls away in the second
half.

Pick: UCLA

Auburn at LSU

Auburn was lucky to escape against Jacksonville State
last week, and QB Jeremy Johnson, everyone’s pick for QB messiah in the
pre-season has been a bust. Of course, I never bought into the hype on Johnson,
but Auburn’s play has been shocking even to me. LSU has only a road win against
Mississippi State under their belt, but it was a quality win on the road, and
Baton Rouge is going to be nuts. Auburn has an iffy run game, the passing game
has been a mess, but LSU has only a run game and a defense right now. If push
comes to shove, the Tigers that win the game will be playing in their own den.

Pick: LSU

Northwestern at Duke

There is nothing overwhelmingly attractive about this
game, other than the fact that both teams are probably playing above their true
ability as of now. They are both coming off of easy FCS wins last week, so this
will be an identifier for both clubs as they try to climb the ranks before
conference play begins.

Pick: Duke

Illinois at North Carolina

UNC is a 9 point favorite at home in this game, but
Illinois has been playing much better football over their first two games than
the Tar Heels have. Illinois is playing on a high for interim coach Bill Cubit,
and Cubit is likely lobbying hard for the full time job. A win on the road here
would go far in making that decision, in my opinion.

Pick: Illinois

Ball State at Eastern Michigan

You are probably wondering if I’ve hit my head, but there
is a draw to this game. Ball State is sliding, and EMU is rising in the MAC,
and the Eagles probably should be 2-0 at this point instead of 1-1. Ball State
couldn’t keep FCS VMI off the scoreboard, and got hammered at Texas A&M.
Eastern lost late to Old Dominion in a shootout, and blew Wyoming out of the
building last week. EMU is worth watching as Chris Creighton is trying to raise
the Titanic at this point.

Pick: Eastern Michigan

Memphis at Bowling Green

The Tigers are playing great football these days under
Justin Fuente. Dino Babers has Bowling Green coming off a huge win at Maryland
last weekend. Both teams are trying to place a stake in the mid major market,
and this game could be one of the more entertaining offensive displays you may
see all season. Look for lots of fireworks, and if Memphis wins, it could
propel them into our PRS Top 25 next week.

Pick: Memphis

Nebraska at Miami

It’s not old school Nebraska-Miami, but it will have to
do. The Huskers are heading to South Florida with the need to pull off a win
here to show the faithful that Mike Riley can get it done. Should the Huskers
falter, everyone will be wondering why Bo Pelini is coaching Youngstown State. Miami
fans want to see a win here, or else Al Golden’s status will start becoming a
grumbling point since he can’t seem to win big games. Lots at stake here.

Pick: Nebraska

California at Texas

There have been so many changes at Texas in the last two
weeks, you need a scorecard to keep up. There was a coaching staff shakeup
before the win over Rice, and now AD Steve Patterson has been fired (he says
resigned, I say fired). There are a million distractions going on around this
Longhorn program right now, and nothing is stable. Cal is one of the most
improved teams in the nation right now, and I see no way that Texas will be able
to keep up with Jared Goff and the Golden Bear offense, but the side shows
should be worth watching alone.

Pick: California

Florida at Kentucky

When was the last time that you could say Kentucky is 2-0
in SEC play to start a season? It could be 2015, as the Gators come to town to
face an improving and rising in the SEC East. If the Wildcats can pull off the
win over the rebuilding and rebranding Gators, the Wildcats could put
themselves in the best position possible to challenge a vulnerable Georgia team
for the SEC East title. If Florida wins, they will be 3-0 under new coach Jim
McElwain.

Pick: Kentucky

Delaware at Villanova

The regional rivalry picks up pace once again this week,
as the Blue Hens visit the Wildcats. Neither team has been able to generate
consistent offense through the first two weeks of the season, so look for one
team to develop more than the other this week. Delaware is down, and Villanova
has to reve the engine a bit to show that they are still in the title hunt.

Pick: Villanova

Yale at Colgate

Yale opens their season on the road against Patriot
League Dark Horse Colgate in what should be a solidly interesting regional
showdown Saturday. Look for Colgate to try and control tempo with their run
game, but Yale will be watching for it, and could be one of the two best teams
in a very tough Ivy League for 2015.

Pick: Yale

Duquesne at Dayton

Dayton struggled against a pesky Robert Morris club in
the opener before a bye date last weekend. Duquesne is 2-0 out the gate, and
are looking to establish themselves as they prepare for NEC play. The winner
here likely finds a place in our FCS PRS Top 25, and will be amongst the
favorites in their respective leagues.

Pick: Duquesne

Tennessee State at Jacksonville State

JSU comes home after nearly beating Auburn, and if it
weren’t for poor special teams play (missed FGs), they may very well have won
that game in regulation. What has to be avoided now is a letdown, and Tennessee
State is a dangerous opponent with that kind of emption roiling around. Look
for the Tigers to push the Gamecocks this week in the Ohio Valley opener for
both.

Pick: Jacksonville State

Chattanooga at Samford

The Mocs lost their opener to Jacksonville State, and
barely got by D2 Mars Hill last week. The SoCon favorite looks very vulnerable
to drop a game they shouldn’t, and this is that game this week on the road with
Samford. The Bulldogs have been strong out of the gate, and they are licking
their chops to pull a minor upset this week at home.

Pick: Chattanooga

St. Francis at Youngstown State

St. Francis is coming off a tough road loss last week,
and they have another huge roadblock this week. For the Penguins, this is a
huge test and trap game at home this week in a game that they cannot afford to
lose. This game could have playoff ramifications down the road if neither team
wins their conference.

Pick: Youngstown State

VMI at Richmond

Richmond should more than pull away to win this game, but
VMI is scoring in a frenzied way this season, and even if they play no defense,
they may have the better offense. If Richmond doesn’t bring their A game this
week, the Keydets could be primed for an upset on the road.

Pick: Richmond

Montana State at Eastern Washington

This is a battle between the two best teams in the Big
Sky, and two of the best in FCS football, but it comes at a strange time. The
Eagles are coming in at 0-2 after falling at Oregon and Northern Iowa, and this
will be their first home game of the season, and boy are they desperate at this
point to get a win. This challenge will fall on the Eagle defense, which has
been Swiss cheese so far this season. We really don’t know much about MSU at
this point, but we do know that they are more than capable to beat EWU on the
road, and take a top spot in the Big Sky standings with an edge moving forward.

Pick: Eastern Washington

Western Illinois at Coastal Carolina

The Chanticleers are looking to run the table this
season, and have stolen the AP top spot in the polls. Western Illinois is
coming off of getting pounded by Northwestern, but they are more than upset
minded on the road this week. This will be one of the tougher challenges that
Coastal faces all season.

Pick: Coastal Carolina

Holy Cross at Towson

Everyone is surprised at the start that Towson has had,
and they almost upset East Carolina in the opener. Holy Cross has had a quiet,
yet strong start, and is looking to be a dark horse in the Patriot League race.
An upset on the road would go miles towards establishing the Crusaders as a
power to be reckoned with, but the Tigers are ready for them. If Towson plays
flat, however, there is a chance.

Pick: Towson

New Hampshire at Stony Brook

Both teams got off to strange starts this fall, but they
are trying to get on track now, and the Sea Wolves really got their run game
going last week. UNH is favored here, but SBU could be priming for an upset at
home this week with a running game that rolled up 5 rushing TDs last week in a
win. If UNH cannot stop that run, it could be a long day.

Pick: New Hampshire

Northern Iowa at Cal Poly

UNI is coming off an upset win over Eastern Washington,
while Cal Poly had Arizona State all tied up entering the 4th
quarter before losing by 14. Both teams are coming off of emotional games, but
UNI has to travel to the west coast and will be kicking off at 930PM Iowa time.
Give the Mustangs the advantage there, and don’t forget that Cal Poly has
already knocked off perennial FCS power Montana two weekends ago.

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The Bilo Poll (Power Ratings System) and How It Works

This is not a standard poll, nor is it a popularity contest. It has the ability to make people very happy or very upset. Here is how it works:

You gain positive points for the following:

Winning, winning on the road, winning against teams ranked in the top 35 of this poll, if below the FBS points for beating a higher classification, margin of victory.

You lose points for the following:

Losing, losing at home, losing to teams not in the top 35 of this poll, losing to teams in lower classifications, and margin of loss.

If you are an FCS (1-AA) school or lower, and you beat a team that is in a higher classification, then your point total for the win category doubles, but if you lose to a higher classification team, your total is zeroed out, and the game is treated like a bye week.

If you beat a team from a lower classification, you only obtain points for margin of victory, nothing else.

If you lose to a lower classification team, your points for the loss double.