214.

Washington, November 28, 1962.

[document number not declassified]

SUBJECT

Phasing of the Soviet Military Deployment to Cuba

1. With benefit of hindsight, we have examined the timing of movements of various types of Soviet units to Cuba. We now believe that the primary purpose of the deployment of ground and surface-to-air units was to defend Cuba as a whole as a strategic base. From our preliminary analysis, we also conclude that there was some apparent relationship in time between the deployment of these units and the MRBM and IRBM units. In other words, the MRBM and IRBM units at least had priority for protection. It should be noted that our dates are approximate and the time-span overall is quite short.

2. The Cuban operation began with the movement of SAM regiments and armored groups. Altogether, 24 SAM battalions and four armored groups were involved. The deployment of the SAM battalions began with their departure from the USSR in mid-July and continued through August. The deployment of the armored groups began in late July and continued through the first weeks of September.

3. The timing of arrival and the subsequent positioning of these units appear to have been phased with the closely following deployment of MRBM and IRBM units. (See table and map(1)) SAM units and armored groups were first deployed to western Cuba, including the ports of Havana and Matanzas; construction of SAM sites began in early August, while the armor arrived at its site about the middle of the month. The initial deployment of MRBM and IRBM units was also to western Cuba (San Cristobal and Guanajay), with construction equipment arrivals beginning in mid-August for the IRBM sites, and in mid-September for the missile equipment associated with the MRBM units. Construction at those sites began about two weeks later.

4. The second section of the SAM and armored group deployment was to central Cuba, where the units were in place during the first week in September. The second group of MRBM and IRBM units also went to central Cuba (Sagua La Grande and Remedios), with equipment arriving at the sites in the last two weeks of September.

5. A third group of SAM sites and an armored unit were established in eastern Cuba toward the end of September. Finally, a fourth increment of SAM units was deployed two to three weeks later to fill in gaps, thereby providing full coverage of the island.

6. Three of the four Soviet armored groups known to be in Cuba were positioned where they could give rapid ground protection to IRBM and MRBM sites. The fourth was located at Holguin, an IL-28 base within the third group of SAM sites.

7. It should be noted that the deliberately phased west-to-east sequence is consistent with the orderly military development of a base in the presence of the enemy. The detected deployment of strategic missile units, however, was asymmetric. We have found no evidence to suggest that additional units were programmed, except for the missing IRBM site at Remedios, but we are reexamining available evidence to see if any indications can be found of preliminary work for such installations.

8. We are not able to determine whether the USSR intended to establish a submarine base. We do know that four Soviet "F" class long range conventional submarines, which left Northern Fleet bases about 1 October, were in waters south of Bermuda by about 22 October. (They remained outside the quarantine line and finally returned to base in November.) [7 lines of source text not declassified]

TIMETABLE OF SOVIET MILITARY BUILDUP IN CUBA

(July-October 1962)

(All dates approximate)

Date: 25-31 July

Western Cuba: Upsurge of Soviet arms shipments begins arriving in western Cuban ports.

Note: Construction of the remaining SAM sites, which apparently were considered less vital than those listed above to the protection of offensive missile bases in Cuba, began in late September or early October. Work probably began on the SAM site at Siguanea on the Isle of Pines in the last week of September and on the sites at Esmeralda, Chambas, Maldonado, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, and Deleite during the first half of October.