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3.
Power?• Steven Lukes’ three faces of power:• Decision-making power• Non-decision –making power (control of theagendas)• Ideological power - making people want thingsthat could be contrary to their interests:women for patriarchal society

4.
soft power cases: visions of futureEUs soft power source lies in its capacity toexpandThe U.S. soft power source lies in itscommitment to support democracy worldwideChina - fast growing political & economic mightThe SU – a dream of a society based onrationality and natural justice

5.
Ukraine’s own three ideas of future• ethnic nationalist – future as the fulfillment ofan independent statehood as historicaspiration of the Ukrainian people;• [liberal] democratic – rights, liberties, goodgovernance• European – a vision of Ukraine as part ofEurope

7.
Making sense of what Ukraine reallywants: no clue :-(Может, спустя некоторое время – через век – центр опятьвернется сюда, и Киев снова станет центром нашейкультуры. Сегодня этого никто не может знать. Главное –сохранить наше единое цивилизационное пространство,православное пространство, единый русский мирMaybe, after some time, – perhaps, in a century – the center will comeback again here, and Kyiv will again be the center of our culture. Nowno one can know it. The main thing is to preserve our singlecivilizational space, the Orthodox Church space, the single RussianworldYevgenii Guzeev, Russian consul in Lviv

8.
Russia’s entanglement with Ukraine• debate over collective valuescompetition for economic assetspolitical competition between two successorstates

15.
WWII importance• «За последние 20 лет страны, входившие в СССР,обрели собственные традиции и праздники, ноостался день, который объединяет всех, - 9 мая”“For the past 20 years, countries that were part of theUSSR have acquired their own traditions andholidays, but there remains one day, that had unitedus all — May 9”Zurabov, Russian ambassador to Ukraine

16.
Russias power — Ukraines weekness• the conundrum of the nation-state: either nationwithout state or a state without nation• 2010 + : state against the nation, a case of stalled ifnot aborted nation building• Leadership problem, legitimacy problems

17.
history as a dominant meta-narrative prevalence of identity politics fieldwork data: tendency to read the otherthrough historic narratives formed in thecontext of Russian and Soviet Empire (nationalliberation narrative vs. imperial narrative)

20.
business as an area of competing andshared interestsenergy/gas sector,financetelecommunicationssea portsadvertisement and public relationsmedia, particularly TVmass entertainment

21.
Moscow as a global mediator forUkraineGlobal media picture for Ukraine goes throughRussian filters (Inosmi.ru INION, etc.) and the otherway round – Ukraine as reflected in the globalmedia is filtered through Russian and Moscow-based mediaUkraines information security concerns showsthat the nation is still encapsulated within itself

25.
Political investment scheme: CrimeaLocal assets:• A list of pro-Russian groups including localCommunist Party branch, Russian Community ofCrimea, irredentist Sevastopol Crimea Russia …down to a petty Crimea Tatar opposition group MilliFirqa• Friendly mediaGoals:• effect local & national political agenda;• sustain the image of a pro-Russian region

28.
Rossotrudnichestvo: official RussianSoft Power tool• Two major venues: memorative politics andeducation• Echoing the Orange revolution: St George Ribbonaction + providing traditional institutional supportfor GPW (WWII) habitual rituals on May 9• Actions to commemorate earlier Russian victories –such as 1737 invasion of Crimea• Venue where all strands of Russian nationalismoverlap: 2 Dec 2012, school competition Russia ismy Homeland for the prize of the Night Wolvesbiker club president (Zaldostanov), Sevastopol

29.
re-unification narrative reloadedResearch expedition and conference for youthHistorical and spiritual aspects of the Slavic unity- part of activity plan of Rossotrudnichestvo tocommemorate the 1150-years of the rise of Russianstatehoodhttp://rs.gov.ru

31.
little tactics and large strategicimpasses• create loyalty dilemmas• => political uncertainties with regards to variousconstituencies, regions etc.• reinforce a political environment in Ukraine thatprioritizes short term gains over long term strategies(environment best suited for Russian elites economicinterests)• undermine Ukraines modern nation buildingeffort

32.
RSP major successesUndermining the national consensus in Ukraine:Perception of PRU rule as some sort of Russianoccupation – language legislation, ‘anti-fascist’themes etc.Manufacturing anti-Ukrainian consensusinternationally: The Ukraine fatigue: a consensuswith Europe on Ukraine as a chaotic state ofambivalent future

34.
ConclusionsMoscow continues to believe that Ukraine is destined toenter a form of ‘integration’ inspired by the Soviet pastboth parties continue to operate on an unspokenassumption that linguistic borders shape the political ones;privilege irrational resources and gainsconditions unchanged: tactically Moscow may longmaintain a headstart; strategically both parties’ losses aregreater than gainsa more fair game for Ukraine is possible if only itsubstantially redefines the rules and the very culture of thebilateral relationship – for that Ukraine needs a trueleadership and … thinking critically and acting rationally