By spring, some 60,000 residents in York or Cumberland counties might elect a state representative of their very own in a House district that’s never existed.

Based on a preliminary analysis of the state’s 2010 census numbers, south-central Pennsylvania looks like a strong bet to gain at least one seat in the state House of Representatives during the once-a-decade legislative reapportionment to take place this fall.

York and Cumberland have nine House members between them, but a population that should support 10.7, according to caucus data.

In the state Senate, the region’s seven districts are likely to stay pretty much as they are now.

Census data and precinct lines must be formally certified, and then the five-member Legislative Reapportionment Commission must get down to the business of agreeing to the maps, including respecting the location of incumbents wherever possible.

At the outset, it appears certain that a trend that’s seen the midstate to add House seats in every redistricting since World War II will continue, giving the eight-county area more clout and influence in the General Assembly.

In the state House, prior to the 1960 census, there were just 19 seats allocated for the eight-county south-central region — including Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry and York — out of 210 total then, or less than half the 39 seats apportioned for the city of Philadelphia.

By the time the 2012 election season kicks off, the region should have at least 29 seats of the 203 House seats, compared to 26 or less for Philadelphia.

Because the region’s heavy Republican voter registration edge reliably produces Republican legislators, that clout is concentrated in the House and Senate’s Republican caucuses, and can be magnified when the Republicans are in the majority.

That is the case now, with the GOP holding a 112-91 edge in the House and a 30-20 edge in the Senate.

“I think we have the ability as a south-central caucus to play a much larger role in the operations of our caucus and the decisions of our caucus,” said Rep. Glen Grell, R-Hampden Township, and the chairman of the local House Republican group, which numbers 25.

That can show up on regional common interests such as pushing for capital appropriations for big regional projects, taking steps to protect the interests of state employees in budget stalemates, or possibly fighting against a commuter tax in Harrisburg.

“We don’t always agree, but when we do, we really have a strength in numbers that can give us a greater influence than we’ve had in the past,” Grell said.

The midstate’s increasing delegation is part of a larger trend that’s swept Pennsylvania for decades.

Randall Miller, a history professor at St. Joseph’s University, noted Friday that the eastward shift in Pennsylvania’s population center dates to the post-World War II era as manufacturers began to modernize and didn’t require as many new bodies all the time.

Miller and others said the end result has been a generations-long shift that has enhanced the clout of southeastern and south-central Pennsylvania in the Legislature.

And it is continuing.

According to 2010 census data, all but one of 17 state Senate districts anchored west of the Allegheny Mountains lost population over the last decade or grew at a slower rate than the state as a whole.

Philadelphia could also lose a House district or see several cross into the suburbs.

Other strong contenders to pick up House seats in reapportionment are Chester County, which gained more than 70,000 in population; the state’s northeastern corner, which continues to see growth from commuters to the New York metro area; and perhaps Berks County, the Lehigh Valley and Montgomery County.

A Philadelphia Senate seat — seven senators live in the city now — could also migrate into the Philly suburbs, based on an analysis of the numbers.

Featured Story

Get 'Today's Front Page' in your inbox

This newsletter is sent every morning at 6 a.m. and includes the morning's top stories, a full list of obituaries, links to comics and puzzles and the most recent news, sports and entertainment headlines.

optionalCheck here if you do not want to receive additional email offers and information.See our privacy policy

Thank you for signing up for 'Today's Front Page'

To view and subscribe to any of our other newsletters, please click here.