Prices are soaring, the population is rising — and first-timers are being forced out ever further. We look at the outlook for the property market in the capital

London is big and brash, packed tighter than an Adele concert with arts, music, culture, nightlife, food, shopping — and people. The city’s population hit 8.6 million last year and is set to rise by a further 1 million by 2025, while large parts of central London have a population density greater than that in Manila and Delhi, according to Hamptons International estate agency.

Yet type the question “why is London so expensive?” into Google and the city tops tables for everything from the price of a soya whateverthehell latte or dinner out to a travel season ticket. The capital is the priciest in the world in which to accommodate an employee (based on the costs of renting a home and leasing office space), Savills estate agency reports — and buying a property is even worse.

A single first-time buyer would need to save for 13.5 years in order to raise a typical 15% deposit for an average property in the UK, according to the new Time to Save report by Hamptons International. In London, where the average home costs £536,000, this rises to almost 46 years. “House prices in the capital have surged since the crash,” says Fionnuala Earley, the agency’s residential research director. “The time to save a deposit has almost doubled since 2008.”

The cost of living and buying in London is changing our behavior and environment — as Francesca Hornak explains in Lament for a fallen Angel, areas once deemed dreary or no-go are being transformed into yuppie hotspots as a new priced-out generation moves in. Estate agents have swooped to capitalize — the capital is home to 13% of the UK’s population, but more than 26% of its shiny-suited tribe.

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“Years ago, if you’d told someone that Brixton homes were expensive, or that Stratford wasn’t godforsaken, but was pretty attractive for families, they’d have laughed in your face,” says Adam Challis, head of residential research at the property consultancy JLL. “Rising prices in the centre have pushed people out to other areas, which are becoming gentrified. This is changing the way people socialize — central London bars and restaurants are busy in the week, while Zones 3-6 come alive over the weekend.”

Today, however, the outlook for London property is mixed. Not only do we have the mayoral election in May, the opposing sides are arguing about the impact on the capital of staying in or leaving the EU.

The slowdown in the Chinese economy, higher rates of stamp duty, less generous tax relief for buy-to-letters and a glut of expensive new-build flats for sale are cooling prices at the top end of the market. Last week, JLL slashed its forecast for the performance of central London property — although beleaguered first-timers shouldn’t expect discounts, as homes priced at less than £1m are still shifting fast.

It doesn’t look as though the squeeze on space will ease in the near future. While the rich escape the crowds in “skyplexes” — the hot new word for, ahem, duplexes at the top of a building — taking to the Thames and living on a houseboat, as the author Helen Babbs did, might be the only option for the rest of us.

• A Londoner paying rent on an average two-bedroom property would have shelled out more than £89,000 in just five years, according to Shelter. In five boroughs, including Hammersmith & Fulham, Islington and Camden, the figure tops £100,000.
• The Northern line between Balham and Stockwell is the most crowded stretch of the Tube.
• There’s plenty of time to save up that deposit — Londoners live longer than anyone else in the UK. Men live for an average of 79.6 years and women 83.8 years. Red-trousered sloanes in Kensington & Chelsea stick around the longest: men typically reach 82.1, women 86.2.
• Squatters’ paradise? The Empty Homes in England report reveals that London has more than 3.4m dwellings — of which 56,715 are vacant.
• There are 380,337 property millionaires in the capital, Zoopla SAYS. The borough of Westminster has the most, at 51,607, followed by Kensington and Chelsea, with 44,972. In Barking and Dagenham, 10 properties are valued at £1m or more.