I recently wrote on this blog that something had happened after the two party conventions but that I did not want to call it a turning point in the campaign. Since then, the situation for Mitt Romney through a series of mistakes, especially his talk about America’s “47 percent,” has steadily weakened. And now the conclusion is inescapable: we have reached a turning point. Barack Obama has strengthened his position on a wide front and time is running out for Romney.

To reverse this trend, Romney needed to do something drastic in his election campaign. He needed a major breakthrough, plus a major mistake, a gaffe, by Obama.

Romney got neither in last night’s TV-debate, although he did very well and was, unanimously, declared victor. The first quick polls by CNN and CBS confirm what all of the 50 million TV-viewers could see and experience -- an energetic and aggressive Romney won, and won handily, the debate against a dull and listless Obama.

The question on the day after the first debate is whether Romney’s new success will have a lasting effect on the rest of the election campaign. We won’t know until new polls are published in the coming days.

The prominent political analyst, University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato, wrote on his “Sabato’s Crystal Ball:"

“Just because Romney won handily – and the press will report it that way – that does not mean voter preferences will necessarily change all that much. Often, voters can judge one candidate to have won a Debate, but not change their ballot choice as a consequence….History cautions us not to over-state the importance of any debate, if this one really does move the numbers in a significant way for Romney, it will be more exception than rule in the relatively short history of televised American presidential debates.”

A Swede's view from D.C.
Internationally renowned journalist Klas Bergman will on a continuous basis cover the 2012 U.S. election process from a Swedish American perspective. Born in Stockholm, Bergman spent most of his adult life outside Sweden, reporting from western and eastern Europe, the Middle East and the U.S., based in Washington, DC and working mainly for the Swedish daily Dagens Nyheter and the Christian Science Monitor.
His primary domicile has been America, ever since his early student days in California in the 1960s. He now lives in the Washington, DC area.