In 1957, Charles H. Kepner and Benjamin B. Tregoe were working in social
science research for the RAND Corporation. There they observed a number of
decisions in government and private corporations that they considered to range
from questionable to catastrophic. They became convinced of the need for a new
methodology based on rational processes. Since RAND were not interested in
persuing that research, they left RAND and founded Kepner-Tregoe and Associates,
initially based in a garage. After a period of intense study of the available
literature they developed a set of techniques which they have licensed to many
trainers and consultants and in which they have trained many internal
consultants (including Daddydog) in corporations and government departments.

After much experience and research, Kepner and Tregoe published their classic
book The New Rational Manager, in 1981. In that work they describe four basic
techniques based on teams of trained people. The first technique is often used
as part of
Root
Cause Analysis, while all four are use in such areas as Total
Quality Management in association with the
Deming Cycle of process improvement. The four Kepner-Tregoe techniques are
as follows.

Problem Analysis (PA) is a rational methodology for identifying, structuring and
solving problems.

Decision Analysis (DA) is a method of structuring decisions between alternative
courses of action and recommending the course of action that best achieves
defined goals. Daddydog has extended this methodology to take account of
uncertainty in the subjective estimates used in this methodology and to
determine whether two different decisions will lead to outcomes that are
statistically significantly different.

Potential Problem Analysis (PPA) is a method for identifying problems that may
arise during or after the implementation of a chosen solution to another problem
and either preventing them from occurring, or, if that cannot be done,
minimizing their impact should they occur.

Situation Appraisal is a methodology for
ensuring the most efficient use of the other three techniques. It covers how to
identify situations requiring intervention, how to break down complex situations
into manageable sub-units, how to set priorities, and how to manage a number of
simultaneous activities efficiently. The steps of Situation Appraisal are:

Identify concerns by listing them (deviations
from standards, threats, opportunities).

Separate the concerns into manageable sub-units

For each concern, set the priority level by
assessing seriousness of impact, urgency to resolve and growth potential.

Decide on which processes to employ (PA, DA, PPA).

Plan for who is involved, what they will be
doing, where they will be involved and the extent of involvement.

The New Rational Manager also discusses the
formation of problem solving and decision making teams, managing human
performance problems, and implementing rational processes in an organisation.