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Thursday, June 27, 2013

The Right Type of Tapering

Ramesh Ponnuru and I have a new article at the New Republic where we argue the Fed should not consider tapering unless it is tied to a NGDP level target. If the target were based on pre-crisis trends over the "Great Moderation" period, then the dollar size of the economy is about 10% too small. If it is based on the CBO's full-employment level of NGDP then it is about 6% short. Either way, there is still a large aggregate nominal expenditure shortfall. The FOMC should make tapering conditional on closing this gap.

The FOMC and Bernanke, however, signaled a differenttype of tapering last week that sent the markets into a tailspin.Yes, Bernanke said the tapering would be based on the pace of recovery, but he also mentioned a timetable which raised questions about whether monetary policy will truly be state contingent. There may have more than this tapering confusion that rattled markets--such as China's tightening of policy--but the Fed clearly failed to signal a future path of monetary policy consistent with supporting the ongoing recovery. This is more passive tightening of monetary policy.

The Fed should realize it is not doing it right when The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, President James Bullard, and IMF Managing Director Christine Largarde all agree the FOMC botched it last week. The Fed can make this right by talking up the right type of tapering. The kind that is conditional on closing the NGDP gap.

4 comments:

Imagine if Bernanke instead delivered a speech in which he highlighted his resolve to "taper up" if conditions in the future warranted it. In other words, sent a signal that he was open to increasing the level of monthly QE.

Jeez! Why is the Fed always hinting that there is an end to the QE road?

Let's see:

QE the market loves itQE the economy loves itQE pays down national debtQE decreases unemploymentQE seems to have no inflationary effect so far, we are at 0.7 percent PCE y-o-y. If it gets any lower than this we will need a microscope to see inflation. Or whatever the opposite of a periscope is, as we will be in deflation.

So the Fed and Bernanke should...hint that QE is ending soon?

Central bankers should not be allowed at the steering wheel of any central bank.....