This is just the beginning, warn scientists

THE clash between molten rock and ice on the surface of the Iceland volcano has produced ash so fine that radar and other aircraft instruments are unable to detect it.

The near-invisibility of the ash swirling in vast clouds over Britain and Europe has magnified the confusion and trepidation brought about by the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull.

Now the uncertainty is set to increase still further, with scientists warning that, based on the volcano’s historic behaviour, the eruption could be “just the beginning”. The mountain may continue to blow out ash sporadically for a year or more.

Even more worryingly, Katla, the neighbouring volcano, is groaning from the eruption under pressure equivalent to 3,000 mini-earthquakes a day of up to 3.1 on the Richter scale. Katla is some five times bigger than Eyjafjallajokull and would erupt in a similar way — but spewing out far bigger plumes of ash.

This does not mean British airspace will be closed for a year, but it could herald months of repeated bouts of disruption, depending largely on the weather.

Yesterday a British scientist described how even modern aircraft technology cannot detect the clouds of ash.

Guy Gratton, head of Cranfield University’s facility for airborne atmospheric measurement, took a flight with fellow researchers to gather data.

“Speaking as an aeronautical engineer, I would not want to be putting an airliner up there at the moment,” said Gratton.

“There is a lot of fairly nasty stuff there that we were running away from, knowing what we did. We have standard airline instruments on the aeroplane, we have got a storm scope and we have got a weather radar and they were looking straight through it.

“Neither of those were seeing any of this stuff. It was only our specialist cloud physics instruments that were able to see the particles.”

The ash is formed by the sudden contact between molten rock and ice. As the lava is pushed up through the vent of Eyjafjallajokull at 700-1,100C, it shoots through the glacier of the same name.

A glass-like rind forms but shatters under pressure from below. Jets of steam and gas then carry it into the atmosphere in tiny flakes less than 1mm across.

David Rotherly, a vulcanologist at the Open University, said: “When you put cold on a hot rock it shatters, creating tiny fragments. Also, when water turns to steam there’s a big expansion which propels the particles even higher.”

Jet engines suck in so much air that it carries with it enough ash to wreck the mechanism. Even though the ash becomes invisible as it disperses, planes have to be grounded as has happened regularly during eruptions in Alaska, northern Japan and Sicily.

Ash has been spewing out since March 20, when a 500-yard gash opened on the shoulder of the volcano.

Bjorn Eriksson, who runs the Hotel Ranga in Hella, a few miles southwest, said locals had been expecting it.

“We’ve been experiencing earthquakes since January,” he said. “At first just one or two a day, but increasing rapidly.” A few days after the first opening, another vent broke four miles up the mountain, 600ft beneath the glacial ice cap.

Eyjafjallajokull has erupted twice in the past 1,100 years, the last time in December 1821. That continued for more than a year until January 1823.

Andrew Hooper, an expert on Iceland’s volcanoes at Delft University in Holland, said: “There is a very real possibility that the volcano will continue to erupt on and off for months.

“Eruptions of Eyjafjallajokull in 1821-3 and 1612 were followed in short shrift by eruptions of Katla, with a far greater potential for disrupting travel and the climate.”

Hooper added: “There are no signs yet of the eruption ending, even temporarily.”

In addition, the wind that has been blowing the ash across Europe is not forecast to change, nor is there much sign of heavy rain which would bring a lot down from the sky.

Hooper warned that the eruption may be only a taste of the future if climate change causes ice sheets to melt further. As the last ice age ended, volcanic activity in Iceland increased 30-fold because of reduced pressure on the earth’s mantle.

“Since the 19th century the ice caps in Iceland have been shrinking yet further,” said Hooper. “This will lead to additional magma generation, so we should expect more frequent voluminous eruptions in the future.”

MUFON

Stabilize the camera on a tripod. If there is no tripod, then set it on top of a stable, flat surface. If that is not possible lean against a wall to stabilize your body and prevent the camera from filming in a shaky, unsteady manner.

Provide visual reference points for comparison. This includes the horizon, treetops, lampposts, houses, and geographical landmarks (i.e., Horsetooth Reservoir, Mt. Adams, etc.) Provide this in the video whenever is appropriate and doesn’t detract from what your focus is, the UFO.

Narrate your videotape. Provide details of the date, time, location, and direction (N,S,E,W) you are looking in. Provide your observations on the weather, including approximate temperature, windspeed, any visible cloud cover or noticeable weather anomalies or events. Narrate on the shape, size, color, movements, approximate altitude of the UFO, etc and what it appears to be doing. Also include any unusual physical, psychological or emotional sensations you might have. Narrate any visual reference points on camera so they correlate with what the viewer will see, and thereby will be better able to understand.

Be persistent and consistent. Return to the scene to videotape and record at this same location. If you have been successful once, the UFO sightings may be occurring in this region regularly, perhaps for specific reasons unknown, and you may be successful again. You may also wish to return to the same location at a different time of day (daylight hours) for better orientation and reference. Film just a minute or two under “normal” circumstances for comparison. Write down what you remember immediately after. As soon as you are done recording the experience/event, immediately write down your impressions, memories, thoughts, emotions, etc. so it is on the record in writing. If there were other witnesses, have them independently record their own impressions, thoughts, etc. Include in this exercise any drawings, sketches, or diagrams. Make sure you date and sign your documentation.

Always be prepared. Have a digital camera or better yet a video camera with you, charged and ready to go, at all times. Make sure you know how to use your camera (and your cell phone video/photo camera) quickly and properly. These events can occur suddenly, unexpectedly, and often quite randomly, so you will need to be prepared.