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Thursday, October 30, 2014

Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index And FOMC QE Update

According to the S&P Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index, Home prices rose by 0.20 percent in August. Three of the 20 cities tracked saw home prices drop, while Detroit, Michigan posted the highest price growth. The seasonally adjusted growth rate for cities tracked declined by 0.10 percent as compared to a decline of 0.10 percent in July.

Detroit led monthly home price growth with a gain of 0.80 percent. Dallas, Denver, Colorado and Las Vegas, Nevada posted gains of 9.50 percent as compared to July. Cities posting declines in home price growth included San Francisco at -0.40 percent, Charlotte, North Carolina and San Diego, California at -0.10 percent.

Home prices increased by a seasonally-adjusted year-over-year rate of 5.60 percent in August, which was the lowest reading since November 2012. Year-over-year home prices grew by 6.70 percent in July. August home prices were 16 percent lower than their 2006 peak.

The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index posted a year-over-growth rate of 5.10 percent. This index covers all nine U.S. census regions.

Analysts note that slower growth in home prices will likely attract more buyers, but is a sign of overall decline in demand for homes. August home prices were 16 percent lower than their 2006 peak. As the jobs market continues to improve and if mortgage rates remain low, more buyers are expected to enter the housing market.

FOMC Statement: QE Ends, Labor Market Forecast Brighter

In its customary post-meeting statement, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve announced that it voted to reduce asset purchases under its current quantitative easing (QE) program to zero. The committee's decision concluded 37 consecutive monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

FOMC cited "substantial improvement" in the outlook for the labor market since the inception of QE purchases, and also noted "sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy" as the basis for the committee's decision. The demise of QE was no surprise as FOMC has consistently tapered asset purchases each month along with its advisory that it planned to end asset purchases under the current QE program this year.

The FOMC characterized the pace of economic improvement as "moderate," but also said that "labor market conditions improved somewhat further with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate." Along with the stronger outlook for jobs, the Fed noted that "underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing."

The committee held to its position that it would not increase the target federal funds rate for a "considerable time" after the quantitative easing program ended. Analysts following the Fed estimate that no changes to the federal funds rate will be made until June 2015 or later.

MEDIAN PRICE FOR ATLANTA HOMES

INVENTORY FOR ATLANTA HOMES

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET FOR ATLANTA HOMES

MARKET STRENGTH FOR ATLANTA REAL ESTATE

The chart above, Market Action Index (MAI), illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a statistical function of the current rate of home sales versus current home inventory on a scale of 1-60. An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller’s Market” (a.k.a. “Hot Market”) because demand is high enough to quickly absorb available supply. A hot market will typically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a “Buyer’s Market” (a.k.a. “Cold Market”) where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months at the current rate of sales. A cold market below 27 will typically cause prices to fall.