Jobless news a bright sign

Among the many issues facing Stockton and San Joaquin County over the past 10 or so years, one of the most serious has been a high unemployment rate.

Among the many issues facing Stockton and San Joaquin County over the past 10 or so years, one of the most serious has been a high unemployment rate.

The rate has consistently hovered around 15 percent and seemingly every spurt or gain has been offset by another drop.

The recession has rocked this area very hard.

The latest California and Metro Forecast from University of the Pacific's Business Forecasting Center says there could be a turnaround in the not-so-distant future.

Their latest report, released last week, forecast a 3.4 percent growth in jobs through 2015. That's a significant jump, even if those involved in the report urge caution.

"We still have a long way to go, probably 2016, before we recover our pre-recession rate," said center Director Jeffrey Michael.

Nonetheless, good economic news has been in short supply in recent years so this is a potential step forward.

The center's forecast stated that the greater Stockton area is expected to "lead" Northern California in the next year.

Two huge complexes are helping in this regard. Amazon's distribution center in Tracy eventually will employ about 1,000 workers. The California Health Care Facility prison hospital in southeast Stockton, which opened this summer, eventually will have about 2,400 employees, many with high-paying jobs ($60,000 and higher).

The significance of those salaries, Michael said, is that they can support home purchases.

The report doesn't promise a major, seismic shift in the overall local economic climate. It does forecast positive movement, and that's a key step.