NFL Trends Championship (01/14/15)

There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

Since 1990, when the NFL Playoffs expanded to 12 teams, there have been 30 conference championship games that were rematches from the regular season. In those games, the winner of the last regular season meeting (there were inter-division rematches where the teams had played each other twice in the regular season) went 18-12 straight-up in the conference championship game.

In those same games, when a team won the regular season matchup and then was favored by a touchdown or more in the conference championship game, the favorite went 8-3 (73% ATS).

Since 1990, when the NFL Playoffs expanded to 12 teams, in conference championship games featuring rematches from the regular season, the favorite went 17-13 (57% ATS).

Since 1990, when the NFL Playoffs expanded to 12 teams, 31 of 50 conference championship games have been decided by more than seven points.

Green Bay and Seattle have met in the playoffs two previous times. The Packers were favored by 7.5 points in both contests. Green Bay won both games but only covered in one.

Tom Brady is facing the Indianapolis Colts for the fifth time in the playoffs. The Patriots have won three of the previous four postseason meetings and are 3-1 ATS in those games.

NFL Trends – Conference Championship Weekend
Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

Team

Spread

Trend

GB

+7.5 @ SEA

Outside a 4-0 ATS run in route to the 2011 Super Bowl Championship, the Packers with Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs are 1-5 (17% ATS).

IND

+7 @ NE

All-time, teams that are dogs of seven or more points against Tom Brady in the playoffs are 9-5 (64% ATS).

NE

-7 vs. IND

In the Tom Brady era, the Patriots have failed to cover in five straight conference championship games, and are 1-3 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more in the AFC title game.

SEA

-7.5 vs. GB

In the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks are 5-0-1 (100% ATS) in the playoffs.