Toomey edging Sestak in poll

Republican up 40-31, with many still undecided.

WASHINGTON — — Republican U.S. Senate candidate Pat Toomey holds a nine-point lead over Democrat Joe Sestak a little more than two months before the November election.

Toomey is leading Sestak 40 percent to 31 percent among likely Pennsylvania voters, according to a Franklin & Marshall College poll released Thursday. One in four respondents remains undecided, although Toomey has been on the air with television ads for weeks. Most people are not yet tuned in to the race.

"In this election, there isn't any doubt that Sestak has a tremendous uphill fight, but Toomey's lead is not insurmountable," said G. Terry Madonna, the poll's director. "I would call Toomey a slight favorite in an election that Sestak can still win."

Toomey's and Sestak's favorability is about equal among voters: 25 percent have a positive view of Toomey, and 23 percent have a positive view of Sestak. About 35 percent of voters have no opinion of either candidate.

Sestak, a Delaware County congressman, and Toomey, a former Lehigh Valley congressman, are both vying for the Senate seat held by Democrat Arlen Specter.

Overall, the poll shows the current political environment greatly favors Toomey and Republicans. More Republicans are expected to come out to vote than Democrats. In the last mid-term election in 2006, Democrats had that advantage.

More voters — 13 percent — consider themselves independents, compared with the 5 percent who did in August 2006. And only 35 percent of those who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 are sure to vote this year, compared with 50 percent of John McCain supporters, Madonna said.

Of those polled, only 37 percent gave a positive rating for Obama's job performance as president. More than half who said they'd vote for Toomey indicated it would be a vote cast against Obama and the Democrats in Congress.

"This is definitely a tough election for Democrats," Madonna said. "The environment is not going to get any better. There is no evidence from past recessions that in November people will suddenly say, 'Oh, things are great.'"

Economic issues like employment and bailouts will be foremost on one-third of voters' minds when they vote in November, compared with 26 percent who put those issues first in May. The change occurred because 12 percent of voters in May said they would be thinking about health care at the ballot box while only 6 percent now say that is the No. 1 issue.

The F&M poll, conducted Aug. 16 through Monday, surveyed 577 Pennsylvania adults, 485 of whom are registered to vote and 377 who said they are likely to vote in November. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 5.4 percentage points among likely voters.