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Shoppers will fork over more bread to make dressing for Thanksgiving turkeys this year.

Food inflation is back, driven by increasing energy and agricultural commodities costs, after consumers got a break in the grocery aisles in 2009.

"Food prices are on the rise," said Harry Balzer, a food and beverage analyst at NPD Group, a Long Island-based market research firm. "Thanksgiving is reflective of what has been happening for the last half of the year. Last year, it was a bargain to go to the supermarket and buy food."

The average cost of 15 items included in a typical Thanksgiving dinner is up 8 percent over 2009, an annual survey of three grocery chains shows. The costs of the 15 items, including a 20-pound turkey, totaled $53.64, up from $49.77 in November 2009.

The sampling, which began in 2007, includes the same products and grocers and calculates an average from prices provided by Gerrity's Supermarket, Wegmans and Price Chopper. The averages omit sales prices and promotions and include some trademarked brands for consistency. Each chain offers some goods at lower prices than the averages and through shopper club memberships and other promotions.

Prices advanced for 12 of the 15 items, with the biggest increases in dairy products and bakery-related items.

"Anything that is grain- or dairy-based costs more," said Joe Fasula, co-owner of Gerrity's, which operates nine markets in Lackawanna and Luzerne counties.

"Dairy is a residual category," said Mona Golub, spokeswoman for Price Chopper, which is based in Schenectady, N.Y., and has eight regional stores. "If fluid milk goes up, so many things go up with it."

Upward pressure on food prices reflects rising costs for energy and major farm commodities, said Phil Lempert, a Los Angeles-area analyst who tracks food and consumer trends and edits Supermarketguru.com, a food and health resources website.

Corn and wheat futures prices have jumped more than 30 percent this year and soybeans are up more than 20 percent. All three are key elements in meat and dairy production and food manufacturing.

Energy prices in October were up 6 percent from October 2009, and gasoline prices were up 9.5 percent over the same span, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

Mr. Fasula said he noticed a turn in prices recently as food producers changed strategy.

"Manufacturers have been pulling back on deals and the advertising for us to do markdowns," he said.

General Mills, the Minneapolis-based breakfast cereal manufacturer, said earlier this month it will increase prices on about one-quarter of its products. Kraft Foods, the Chicago-area consumables giant whose brands include Kraft, Oscar Meyer and Nabisco, revealed plans to boost prices on about half of its products.

"My concern is how this is going to affect the consumer overall?" Mr. Fasula said. "It's incredibly tough."

The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index for October says food-at-home prices are up just 1.4 percent for the year, but Mr. Lempert disputes that figure.

"I think we're probably looking at a 6 percent increase for the year in food prices," he said. "Consumers can't handle this mentally or economically."

Grocery shoppers see food prices advancing after they enjoyed a bargain at supermarkets in 2009. Food prices in December 2009 were down 0.5 percent from the year-earlier period, Labor Department data show.

"Supermarkets are having a difficult time because of rising prices," Mr. Balzer said. "It may turn out to be a good Thanksgiving for the restaurant industry."

It's still a good Thanksgiving for home cooks, said Jo Natale, spokeswoman for Wegmans, which is based in Rochester, N.Y., and has stores in Dickson City and Wilkes-Barre Twp.

Even if the price of the 15 items in the sample is more than last year, consumers get a lot of food for their money, she said.

"These items are a strong value," she said. "Thanksgiving dinner is a bargain."

Contact the writer: jhaggerty@timesshamrock.om

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