WhatIfSports: Bruins have a 62.8 percent chance of winning the Cup

Posted By
Joe Haggerty
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April 15, 2009 @ 6:25 pm
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WhatIfSports[1] has already got plenty of street cred on the third floor of the New Balance Building in Brighton. “Dale & Holley” producer “Big Game” James Stewart and WEEI radio personality and best-selling author Michael Holley — as well as this humble puck writer — all actively compete in simulated “theme” baseball leagues run by the addictive site, but apparently they’ve also become pretty damned accurate with their game simulation software.

“It’s about time. I mean the city has not won a major sports championship in two whole days. As if Boston, a town that was once starved for titles, yet has ruled the national athletic landscape for the better part of a decade, needs it. Since the turn of the decade, the Patriots have three Super Bowls, the Celtics[10] won the 2008 NBA title, and the Red Sox[11] broke an 86-year curse to two World Series champions.

“Now, the Bruins are the prohibitive favorites to bring the Stanley Cup back to Beantown for the first time since Bobby Orr[12] led them to a title in 1972. In fact, the 2009 NHL[13] Playoffs set up nicely for fans of historically great American hockey teams as we should finally see two “Original Six” franchises – Boston and Chicago – in the Finals.

“With its super computer on a roll (more below), WhatIfSports.com now focuses on hockey. We have simulated the Stanley Cup Playoffs 10,000 times in order to determine the exact likelihood of each of the 16 teams an making it to any level. Last year at this time, we accurately predicted Detroit would win the Cup over Pittsburgh and even had many of the scores in the Finals close.

“Thorough results of the simulations can be found at BracketPreview.com. A recap of some of the more interesting points is below, but we encourage you to check out the Bracket Preview page to see it all.

“The Boston Bruins[14] are really good. On the season, the team finished second in the league in scoring with 3.29 goals a game and led the NHL in goals allowed at just 2.32 goals a game. That yielded a 0.98 average scoring margin that was more than a third of a goal greater than the next best team. In goal, Tim Thomas[15] has been spectacular, saving 93.3% of shots on goal.

“In front of him, the team is exceptionally balanced with nine players scoring more than 40 points and five players, including the team’s leading goal-scorer and 2005 first round draft choice, Phil Kessel[16], shooting better than 15%. In four years of publishing the NHL Bracket Preview, the Bruins are the first team we have ever predicted that, on average swept its first round opponent.

“In this case, Boston has a 99.6% chance of advancing past Montreal, whom it faced when the roles were reversed last season. The Bruins then have a 92.2% chance of making the Eastern Conference Finals, a 78.9% chance of playing for the title and a remarkable 62.8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. All of those are all-time highs for this analysis.

“In the East, it’s clearly Boston and then everyone else. There are actually no upsets predicted as more likely than not in the first round for either conference, so Washington (68.7%), New Jersey (73.7%) and Pittsburgh (54.9%) also advance to the second round defeating New York, Carolina, and Philadelphia respectively.

“In that scenario, which occurs 27.6% of the time, there is no need to re-seed teams, but it is important to note that the simulations do re-seed each round (best seed plays worst seed) when necessary. In the conference semi-finals, Martin Brodeur[17] and the New Jersey Devils[18] pull a mild upset, advancing to the conference finals as a three-seed 59.7% of the time. With such a strong conference presence in the Bruins, New Jersey only makes it into the Stanley Cup Finals 12.8% of the time, winning it all 6.3%. Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Washington all win the Cup between 0.4% and 0.9% of the simulations. New York and Montreal never win the championship.”