Stanford's slump a mystery even to coach

Published 4:00 am, Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Photo: Jeff Gross / Getty Images

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Head coach Johnny Dawkins of the Stanford Cardinal calls out in the first half while taking on Oregon State Beavers in the first round of the 2011 Pacific Life Pac-10 Men's Basketball Tournament at Staples Center on March 9, 2011 in Los Angeles, California. less

Head coach Johnny Dawkins of the Stanford Cardinal calls out in the first half while taking on Oregon State Beavers in the first round of the 2011 Pacific Life Pac-10 Men's Basketball Tournament at Staples ... more

Photo: Jeff Gross / Getty Images

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Stanford head coach Johnny Dawkins talks with forward Dwight Powell (33) after he fouled out against California in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Berkeley, Calif., Sunday, Jan. 29, 2012. California defeated Stanford 69-59. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma) less

Stanford head coach Johnny Dawkins talks with forward Dwight Powell (33) after he fouled out against California in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Berkeley, Calif., Sunday, Jan. 29, 2012. ... more

Photo: Paul Sakuma, Associated Press

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Stanford head coach Johnny Dawkins reacts during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game with Oregon, Thursday, Jan. 5, 2012, in Eugene, Ore. Oregon defeated Stanford 78-67.

Stanford head coach Johnny Dawkins reacts during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game with Oregon, Thursday, Jan. 5, 2012, in Eugene, Ore. Oregon defeated Stanford 78-67.

Stanford head coach Johnny Dawkins yells during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Arizona in Stanford, Calif., Saturday, Feb. 4, 2012. Arizona won 56-43.

Stanford head coach Johnny Dawkins yells during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Arizona in Stanford, Calif., Saturday, Feb. 4, 2012. Arizona won 56-43.

Photo: Jeff Chiu, Associated Press

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Stanford head coach Johnny Dawkins talks with his team during a time out in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game with Oregon State Saturday, Jan. 7, 2012, in Corvallis, Ore. Stanford defeated Oregon State 103-101. less

Stanford head coach Johnny Dawkins talks with his team during a time out in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game with Oregon State Saturday, Jan. 7, 2012, in Corvallis, Ore. Stanford defeated ... more

Photo: Rick Bowmer, ASSOCIATED PRESS

Stanford's slump a mystery even to coach

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What's wrong with Stanford?

The team that was tied for the Pac-12 lead and 15-3 overall in mid-January has lost five of its past seven games. It has been shooting blanks lately, hitting just 38 percent of its field goal attempts during that stretch compared with 46 percent in the 18 previous games.

Yes, the first three games of that stretch were on the road, two of them against the conference's top two teams, Cal and Washington. But the other three losses, all by at least 11 points, were against beatable teams. Sunday's win over woeful USC was not a feather in Stanford's cap either. The first half was one of the team's worst of the year, although Stanford came out of it with a 20-18 lead.

The Cardinal (17-8, 7-6 Pac-12) hope their fortunes change at Maples Pavilion when they play Oregon State on Thursday night and Oregon on Sunday.

When teams go south this late in the season, sometimes it's because their legs are gone. Coach Johnny Dawkins insisted Tuesday that's not the case with this club.

"I wouldn't like to think their legs are tired because we play a number of guys" in a 10- or 11-man rotation, he said. The rotation "was designed so that we could go through a season and be fresh at the end. I wouldn't think it's fatigue."

He chalked the shooting slump up to tougher competition, five road games and the fact that two players, Anthony Brown and Dwight Powell, are still trying to find their form after spending much of the year battling injuries.

It's well known that Dawkins believes in the tough practice regimen espoused by Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski. He played for Krzyzewski as an All-America guard, then worked under him for 11 years as an assistant coach.

Dawkins was asked if he thought he's working the Cardinal too hard in practice.

"I really don't think so," he said. "I think we've done a good job of adjusting according to how our guys have felt."

The practice schedule has been cut back "quite a bit" late in the season, he said. "Going into Pac-12 play, we started reducing practice. As we moved further into Pac-12 play, we've reduced it further."

The team's ability to defend consistently well shows that its legs aren't tired, he said. "If you didn't have any legs, the first place it would show is not being able to keep up with guys on the defensive end," he said.

On the offensive end, however, the statistics indicate that few players have been able to match their performances of last season. Instead of improving, as one would expect, most of them have either put up worse numbers or only marginally better ones.

Only guard Aaron Bright has dramatically improved his scoring average (from 5.1 to 11.2 points per game). That's to be expected since he has established himself at the point and has increased his minutes by about 10 per game. However, his assists per minute are roughly the same as last year.

The scoring averages of all the other regulars are either down or up only marginally.

Senior forward Josh Owens, who had been counted on to be the major breadwinner on the inside, is up slightly in scoring, although he leads the team with a 12.7 average. His rebounding is down.

Dawkins argues that Bright, Owens and sophomore forward Josh Huestis are clearly improved over last year, while Powell and Brown would have been, too, if it hadn't been for their injuries. He said the growth of players like Huestis has taken rebounds that Owens would have gotten last year.

Owens "is very dependent on us getting him the basketball in the right spot," he said. "We have to do a better job of helping Josh. He has to grow in terms of creating opportunities on the offensive boards."

Two seniors, guard Jarrett Mann and forward Jack Trotter, have seen their playing time sharply reduced from last year, so their numbers are down. Another senior, forward Andrew Zimmermann, is getting more minutes but fewer rebounds. He has improved, Dawkins contends, although "it's not going to show up in the stats because he's not a scorer."

Stanford's recent slump continues a disquieting trend of late-season tail-offs or outright collapses during Dawkins' four years on the Farm. In his first season, the team won its first 10 games and was 13-3 before losing 11 of its last 18. The 2009-10 team was 10-9 before losing nine of its last 13. Last year the Cardinal were 10-5, then lost 11 of 16.

Tough conference schedules no doubt played a factor, but it's a pattern that will need to be reversed if the Cardinal are going to win their first conference regular-season title since 2004.

"Every season is different," Dawkins said, discounting the trend. "We didn't have the depth that we have this year in the earlier teams. You have to coach them all differently."

As for his current team, he said, "I'm confident we'll work our way out of it."

Not much improvement

Except for Aaron Bright, who is averaging 10 more minutes, most of Stanford's players are scoring at a lower rate or only a marginally better one from last season. Here's a comparison for the players who played both complete seasons.

Player

2010-11

2011-12

Josh Owens*

11.6

12.4

Anthony Brown

8.7

7.3

Aaron Bright**

5.1

11.2

Dwight Powell***

8.1

4.9

Josh Huestis****

2.3

5.7

Jarrett Mann

4.9

3.8

John Gage

3.8

2.7

Jack Trotter

3.2

2.7

Andrew Zimmermann

2.8

3.2

*Owens' rebounding average has dropped from 6.5 to 5.9.

**Bright's assists per minute have gone up only from .104 to .114.

***Powell's rebound average has dropped from 5.2 to 4.0.

****Huestis' points per minute have gone up only from .23 to .26. His rebounds per minute have gone up only from .20 to .23.

Thursday's game

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