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Independent Annual Growth Survey 2018

The European economy is now on a quite robust growth path, with unemployment decreasing. With the improvement of the economic scenario, the policy-mix will need to be normalized. But, this normalization must be gradual and iAGS recommends the pursuit of ECB's unconventional monetary policies. The euro area has moved into a large trade surplus, which may not be sustainable. The imbalance is clearly concentrated in surplus countries. Nominal convergence remains an important issue that should be addressed by appropriate policies, beginning with surplus countries. The improvement of the overall employment numbers has not been extended to all countries and all social groups and are not followed by improvements in terms of income equality and poverty reduction.