Poll: Bush adds to New Hampshire lead

By Keating Holland/CNN

September 14, 1999
Web posted at: 5:10 p.m. EDT (2110 GMT)

WASHINGTON -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush has added to his commanding lead among New
Hampshire voters who say they will participate in that state's first-in-the-nation GOP primary next February, with his three closest competitors now trailing him by at least 30 percentage points.

Former Red Cross chairwoman Elizabeth Dole, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and multimillionaire publisher Steve Forbes are behind Bush in that order.

Like former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley on the Democratic side, Bush has gained support among men while holding steady among women to garner 45 percent of the GOP Granite State vote.

Dole, McCain, and Forbes are essentially in a three-way tie for second, with the remaining candidates in single digits.

But Bush could easily lose his advantage as 56 percent of GOP primary voters say they may change their minds between now and February.

The poll is based on interviews with 702 New Hampshire voters, including 377 who say they intend to vote in the Republican primary next year. It was conducted by the University of New Hampshire on September 5-11, 1999, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

I am going to read the names of the candidates who are expected to be on the Republican primary ballot. If you were voting in the 2000 New Hampshire Republican primary for president today, would you vote for: Gary Bauer, Pat Buchanan, George W. Bush, Elizabeth Dole, Steve Forbes, Orrin Hatch, Alan Keyes, John McCain, or Dan Quayle?

Bush

45%

Dole

15

McCain

12

Forbes

10

Buchanan

5

Keyes

4

Quayle

3

Bauer

1

Hatch

1

Now

May

Bush

45%

37%

Dole

15

16

McCain

12

14

Forbes

10

6

Of respondents who said they would vote for George W. Bush:

Now

May

Men

51%

33%

Women

39

41

Now

May

Parents

45%

28%

No children

46

42

Of respondents who identified themselves as moderate or conservative:

Moderates

Conservatives

Bush

41%

46%

Dole

22

8

McCain

20

7

Moderates

Conservatives

Bush

41%

46%

Forbes

8

12

Buchanan

0

10

Are you certain to support that person, or do you think you may change your mind and support someone else in the 2000 New Hampshire primary?