Reduced contract share forces salmon prices down

Increased supply, especially of small fish, gives in to a new week of decline.

“Yesterday, at lot of unsold fish was offered. What’s going on next week isn’t clear, but it’s down,” says a salmon buyer to SalmonBusiness.

Facts

SalmonBusiness collects spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch. These are fish to be delivered the following week. Here we contact several members of the value chain, including farmers, exporters and importers. We always have at least five independent sources, although not all sources are necessarily displayed on print. We vary which sources we use, and do not use the same sources each time.

“The processors have built stock. They are more ahead than they have been before. So, I do not believe in the price bonanza for Christmas.”

“It’s been trading for around 55 kroner (€5.8) for three months now. I do not believe in any further falls, but I do not believe in these sky high prices that many talk about. Last year there were a lot more contracts. This year, there are less contracts, that is, there is more fish to fight for in the free market. And then the price is not forced up,” he explains.

Six industrial sources SalmonBusiness have talked to Friday indicate the following price level (FCA fish farmers in Norway) for next week:

NOK 47-49 (€4.9-5.1) for 3-4 kilograms

NOK 50-52 (€5.2-5.4) for 4-5 kilograms

NOK 53-55 (€5.5-5.7) for 5-6 kilograms

NOK 55-60 (€5.7-6.2) for 6+ kilograms

“It’s way too high, but we’ll probably end there,” says a trader.

“There will be no less fish next week. There are lots of unsold fish. Here there is also a lot of unsold big fish as well. People lose a lot of money on it. There is a lot of small fish being offered, a lot of ISA fish, and it affects 3-4 fish,” resonates another.

“I think we can see what we saw last year – we will not get any price jumps towards Christmas. Sales prices must match the end-customers’ prices. There is no room for 70 kroner (€7.3),” he predicts.