If ever the Israeli and Palestinian peoples needed our
prayer, it is now.

THE ISRAELI ELECTIONS

The traumatic event of the serious illness of Ariel Sharon
shocked Israel and deepened her insecurity. The result of
the subsequent Israeli election, with the lowest turn-out
ever, is seen by some commentators as a momentous vote for
dividing the land, since it apparently supported the Kadima
party’s policy of withdrawal in the West Bank. One wrote:
“The people have spoken. The land will be divided. Thirty
nine years after the start of occupation, the Israeli nation
decided this week to significantly minimise it….. the
Greater Land of Israel is over and done with.”

However, others point out that, whereas in 1969 80% regarded
foreign policy as most important and 20% domestic issues,
today only 38% regard foreign policy as most important and
62% domestic issues. Many expressed their disillusionment
with politicians by voting for the Pensioners Party which is
basically an anti-political protest party.

Ehud Olmert, head of the new Kadima party campaigned on a
“Convergence” ticket. Convergence means
removing most isolated settlements and converging them into
blocs of West Bank settlements which will remain under
Israeli control with wide security zones in preparation for
a future Palestinian state. The intention is to implement
Convergence in 2008.

I visited Olmert when he was still Mayor of Jerusalem (he
said how good it was to meet an Anglican who was positive
towards Israel!). He is convinced that the only way to stop
the violence is to separate Israel physically from the
Palestinians. He aims to finalize plans for extensive
withdrawal from parts of the West Bank within the next 18
months. "The State of Israel will change the face of the
region," Olmert said of his plan. "I will not miss this
opportunity." However he rejected the possibility of
sharing control of Jerusalem and its main holy sites with a
future Palestinian state, though he left open the option
that some Arab neighbourhoods surrounding the capital could
eventually be under Palestinian sovereignty. "Dividing
Jerusalem will not bring peace, only more fighting," he
said. Olmert is not holding a national referendum about his
plan because he believes the general election gave him a
mandate for it. The US supports Olmert’s convergence plan
but has asked him to delay for a few months.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas called on
Olmert to drop his idea of unilateral withdrawal from the
West Bank, which would effectively settle the border between
Israel and a future Palestinian state. However Olmert
dismissed the idea that Abbas is a
potential partner for peace negotiations, saying that he
respects Abbas as a person who is opposed to terror and who
would have accepted the basic principles for future
negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians . But he
added: "He is powerless. He is helpless. He's unable to even
stop the minimal terror activities amongst the
Palestinians." However it is likely that Israel will urge
the Palestinians to resume talks on the road map, but only
on condition they accept the international Quartet's three
principles - recognition of Israel, a rejection of violence
and terror and acceptance of previous agreements between
Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

THE PALESTINIAN ELECTIONS

The unexpected Hamas landslide achieved in the Palestinian
elections, where 77% of the population voted, has
dramatically changed the Middle East situation. When I
heard the result my mind went back to my visit to Bethlehem
in October. My guide was a Palestinian who had been
imprisoned by the Israelis (it’s a long story!) and he took
me to places I where I would have felt unsafe had he not
been with me, including the refugee camps. I was surprised
to see many green Hamas flags fluttering in the breeze over
areas of the town. Even then I did not imagine there would
be a landslide. But Hamas had poured funding into deprived
Palestinian areas.

For over a year we had dared to hope that peace would break
out. I had urged people to give Abbas a chance to make a
success in very difficult circumstances, which even
threatened his life. But it became increasingly clear that
he and the Palestinian Authority were not really in control.
Gunmen stormed Palestinian Authority offices. Gangs stole
land in Gaza designated by the PA for new housing.
Palestinians were killed in gang warfare. PA officials spoke
of there being an Intifada against Abbas. Some would argue
that Israel did not give Abbas enough support to hinder a
Hamas victory.

In its election campaign, Hamas promised to bring an end to
the anarchy in the territories, but instead it has
intensified in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and even
threatens civil war, which could topple the Palestinian
Authority. There have been armed clashes between Hamas and
Fatah forces. Armed
members of the Aksa Martyrs' Brigades surrounded the
Palestinian Authority Prime Minister's Office, took over
Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh's office and raided the PA's
Transportation Ministry.
Dozens of masked Palestinian policemen blocked a major road
in the Gaza Strip and stormed a government building as they
demanded their overdue salaries from the Hamas-led
government. An assassination attempt on the PA Intelligence
chief in Gaza has heightened fears of an attempt against the
life of Abbas. Bombs have been laid near the homes and cars
of both Hamas and Fatah senior officials.

The suicide bomb in a Tel Aviv restaurant on April 17th,
where six people were killed and 35 injured, was condemned
by Abbas as a “terrorist act.” However, Hamas, which had
earlier said it was abandoning the use of suicide bombers,
defended the bombing, saying the Palestinians had the right
to defend themselves against Israeli attacks.

The Hamas government is under economic and political attack
from the US and the EU as well as Israel. Also Arab states
are failing to live up to their promises of financial help.
Palestinian embassies around the world are paralysed.

A political battle is raging between President Abbas and
Hamas. Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh accuses Abbas of
denying the government its proper powers in order to prove
it is incompetent. Abbas said he has the power to dismiss
the Hamas government and threatened to dismiss Haniyeh.
According to Israel, the US is working quietly to support
Abbas against Hamas.

Hamas is defiant in the face of the widespread political and
economic boycott, but it is facing imminent financial
collapse. It inherited debts of $1.5 billion. Qatar offered
$50 million and Syria offered to fundraise for the PA.

In view of all this, in a visit to Europe, Abbas warned:
"Life will be frozen and then there will be an explosion of
anger and this would lead to a chaotic situation of which we
cannot foresee the results." He appealed to Europe to give
the Hamas government a chance.

However, various humanitarian initiatives are being taken to
get aid to the Palestinian people bypassing the Hamas
government. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)
will continue its assistance to Palestinian refugees.
The Quartet - the United States, Russia, European Union and
United Nations – are creating a trust fund, which Western
diplomats say may not be up and running until the end of
June. It would fund would funnel aid to key sectors like
health and education, bypassing the Hamas-led government. PA
Chairman Mahmoud Abbas' office is set to serve as the
go-between..
Israel is buying medical equipment and medicines for the
Palestinians out of frozen tax funds it collected for the
Palestinian Authority. Olmert said that the Palestinians
"are the victims of their own extremist, fundamentalist,
religious, inflexible and unyielding leadership, and we will
do everything in our power to help these innocent people."

HOW SHOULD WE PRAY?

Many Christians who support Israel will feel tempted to see
the victory of Hamas as proving what they had always
thought, that there was no hope of peace with the
Palestinians. They will see it as a massive vote for
terrorism and a rejection of Israel’s right to exist. An
Evangelical leader in Jerusalem publicly stated that it was
a threat not only to Jews but to Christians reminiscent of
1930s Nazi Germany. Such Christians may see this as a clear
justification for Israel to take a very tough line to ensure
that a Palestinian terrorist state is not set up in its back
yard. After all, Mahmoud al-Zahar, Hamas Foreign Minister
has foretold that a Hamas victory would lead to a radical
Muslim state, ruled by Islamic law and run by the Muslim
Brotherhood. This state would have a policy of total
non-co-operation with Israel.

The Hamas Government is dominated by nine Ministers who are
Hamas activists, with 15 who are either affiliated to or
sympathetic towards Hamas. It is interesting that one
Minister, George Jawada Murcos, is a Christian from
Bethlehem. The government is committed to forming a
Palestinian State and the Right of Return of all Palestinian
refugees to Israel, which Israel cannot accept because it
would eventually result in an Arab majority. It will
negotiate with Israel over the latter’s withdrawal from the
West Bank but insists on “re-examining” earlier Israel-PA
agreements. It also reserves the right to “various forms of
resistance” which clearly include terrorism.

PA Foreign Minister Mahmoud Zahar's sent a letter to
UN Secretary-General Kofi Anan informing him that Hamas
would accept a two-state solution. However he gave
Palestinian journalists a different version of the letter
which omitted reference to accepting the two-state solution.
In mid-April Al Jazeera reported that Hamas was about to
announce that it will recognize Israel if she withdraws to
the 1967 borders. Later in the month Deputy Prime Minster
Nasser Abu-Shayer said if Hamas adopted the 2002 Saudi peace
plan, which calls for peace with Israel following an Israeli
withdrawal to the 1967 borders, it would be conditional on
Israel recognizing the Hamas-led PA government. He added
that they had not finally decided to adopt the plan. However
a spokesman said Hamas would not accept Israel’s legitimacy.

The latest news is that Abbas has given Hamas an ultimatum –
to accept a two-state solution on the basis of a plan drawn
up by Hamas, Fatah and Islamic Jihad prisoners in Israeli
jails. This would mean accepting Israel’s right to exist, if
it returns to the 1967 borders. If Hamas fails to do this in
the very near future, Abbas would put the plan to a
referendum.

It would be naïve to ignore the reality of antisemitism, the
bitter hatred for Israel and the presence of evil men and
women bent on religiously-inspired violence and oppression,
not to mention the spiritual forces behind these factors.

However, I would counsel caution. We need to ask what God is
doing in all this? How is he planning to show his love for
the Palestinian people as well as the Israelis? After all,
he has a proven record of turning stumbling blocks into
stepping stones. Let’s ask a few relevant questions?

Why did the Palestinians vote for Hamas?

Was it really a vote for terrorism and the destruction of
Israel? I don’t think it was so simple for the following
reasons:

In all elections many ordinary people cast their votes
on more immediate, domestic issues rather than on the
basis of the bigger picture, as we have seen in the
Israeli elections. Most ordinary people, including
Palestinians, simply want to get on with their lives in
safety and with some financial security. The Palestinian
people were confronted with a situation of increasing
chaos and corruption within their government. Rival
gangs were terrorising the streets, the economy was in a
bad way and these factors were the more immediate,
domestic issues which governed their choice. I believe
it was more a vote against the existing government than
an enthusiastic vote for Hamas.
We must remember
that Hamas is well-known in the Palestinian areas for
its social welfare, health and educational programmes.
It has also projected an image of honesty. I think all
this will have been a significant factor. If Hamas
doesn’t deliver stability and economic improvement, the
Palestinian people could well turn against them. Sadly a
good deal of anarchy continues on the Palestinian
streets after the election. We should not malign the
Palestinian people by concluding they are a people of
terrorism. I know that there have been opinion polls
suggesting widespread support for terrorism. But we must
remember that in a context of such violent instability
it is dangerous not to agree with those responsible for
the violence. Pray for the ordinary Palestinian
people caught up in the politics.

History shows many examples that the terrorist of
yesterday can become the statesman of today. Is it
possible this could happen with Hamas now they are in
power? It is easy to be radical and to appeal to
popular support when one is side-lined (as Islamists are
throughout most of the world). But it is very different
when one is in power. There seem to be some signs that
this could take place in Hamas, despite the anti-Israel
rhetoric and the sabre-rattling. It seems to me that
this is an important area for Christian intercession.
Pray that, now it is in power, Hamas will begin to turn
away from violence towards statesmanship. Even if
some influential Hamas activists don’t do so, we can
pray that sufficient leading lights will do so and that
they will make the running in the long term. Is this
naïve wishful-thinking? I don’t think so. Remember how
unlikely it seemed that the Soviet empire would collapse
and the Berlin Wall be demolished. Also, who would have
thought that Ariel Sharon would unilaterally withdraw
from Gaza? Massive surprises can take place in the
political world. It is interesting that Hamas-controlled
West Bank local authorities work closely with the
Israelis, where necessary.

There will be hot-heads in Hamas, but most sensible
Palestinians can hardly believe they really could
destroy Israel, despite the terrorist claim that Israel
was driven out of Gaza by violence. Israel is a very
powerful nation militarily: the sixth most powerful
nation in the world. Given the incentive of 2000 years
of anti-Semitic persecution amongst the nations, leading
to the Holocaust and the resurgence of anti-Semitism in
the modern world, whatever concessions they may be
willing to make, Israelis are not about to give up their
land. Decades of war and terrorism have had a terrible
effect, but they have not weakened the resolve of the
vast majority to remain a nation. Israel claims that the
arrest of key terrorists has decimated the ranks of
Hamas. IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz
said "In contrast to the theory that the army cannot
exterminate terrorism, I believe the army can reduce
terrorism to the very lowest level." Pray for the
protection of the State of Israel.

On the economic level, a Palestinian state cannot thrive
without co-operation with Israel despite receiving
assistance from Iran. As stated above, if Hamas does not
deliver the goods economically, the Palestinian people
could turn against them. It has to be noted though, that
the fledgling Palestinian democracy could easily be
replaced by a dictatorship, but the economic and
political facts of life outlined in these points would
still apply.

Then there is the international situation. For reasons
of self interest, the larger nations, especially in the
West are keen to see peace in the Middle East. Both the
USA and the EU – together with the majority of the UN
support the right of Israel to exist. It must
concentrate the minds of the Hamas leadership that there
is such strong political and economic opposition to them
amongst world leaders.

Then there is the Iran-factor threatening nuclear
instability in the Middle East is concentrating the
minds of those leaders. After the euphoria of the
landslide and promotion to leadership has died away, the
realities of the situation are bound to be clear to
Hamas.

Praise God for the much clearer international stand against
governments supporting terrorism. I urge Christians not to
panic about the Hamas victory but to pause for thought about
what God might be doing in this situation. Positive change
could still take place, if we pray earnestly that the
realities of the situation and the voices of moderation will
bring about positive change in Hamas or its replacement by a
more moderate government.

IRAN

There are sinister developments in Iran. On October 30th
Iranian President Ahmadinejad spoke at a “World without
Zionism” conference in Teheran. He described Israel as a
front for the World of Arrogance (the West) which has forced
an Islamic retreat for the last 300 years. So Palestine is
in the front line of this conflict. He pointed out that the
USSR had unexpectedly collapsed. He quoted Ayatollah
Khomeini as saying: “This regime that is occupying Qods [
Jerusalem ] must be eliminated from the pages of history.”
And commented: “This sentence is very wise. The issue of
Palestine is not an issue on which we can compromise …. Very
soon, this stain of disgrace [i.e. Israel ] will vanish from
the center of the Islamic world - and this is attainable.”

We can be grateful that the UN has instituted January 27 as
worldwide Holocaust Awareness Day. Commenting on the
Ahmadinejad’s statement, US Ambassador John Bolton said:
"When a president or a member state can brazenly and
hatefully call for a second Holocaust by suggesting that
Israel, the Jewish homeland, should be wiped off the map, it
is clear that not all have learned the lessons of the
Holocaust and that much work remains to be done." Kofi
Annan said he was dismayed by Ahmadinejad's comments and
cancelled a trip to Iran. The comments were condemned by
the UN Security, the European Union, Canada, Britain,
France, Turkey, Russia, and China. The Palestinian
Authority's Saeb Erekat spoke against Ahmadinejad:
"Palestinians recognize the right of the state of Israel to
exist and I reject his comments." The Egyptian daily Al-Ahram
dismissed his statement as "fanatical" and spelling disaster
for Arabs.

Praise God for the much clearer international stand against
anti-Semitism and recognition of the State of Israel. We
also need to pray earnestly for God to curb extremism in
Iran and to prevent the development of nuclear weapons
there.