Welcome to jobs day: 200K plus? — Merkel wants no more Russia sanctions — George W. urges Jeb to run

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WELCOME TO JOBS DAY: BIG POP OVER 200K? — Will the long-awaited spring thaw start showing up in the April jobs number this morning? Consensus is for over 200K so anything less will be a significant disappointment. Moody’s Mark Zandi emails: “Payroll employment will increase by 220K. This is consistent with fewer unemployment insurance claims and the ADP report. The risks to this job gain is to the upside. There still may be some payback from the impact of the bad winter weather. … Abstracting from the vagaries of weather and other temporary factors, underlying job growth is now over 200K per month for the first time in this recovery”

Pantheon’s Ian Shepherdson: “We look for a 200K increase in both private and headline payrolls, the best since November, and we would not be surprised by a stronger performance. … [W]e think the unemployment rate likely dipped by

at least a tenth, and we are intrigued to see if any of the upturn in wage gains in the manufacturing sector is filtering into the broader economy”

THE USUAL CAVEATS — The margin of error for each jobs report is around 100K; the trend of 100K-200K per month has remained pretty steady for several years with spurts of stronger and weaker growth; the Fed is now focused on broader measures of the labor market rather than simply the headline unemployment rate; the labor-force participation rate remains near a historic low; long-term joblessness remains elevated while the short-term rate is back near its average level. Yes, there are lots of ways we over-hype each jobs report. But the trends in the data are still critical and well worth studying.

GEORGE W. BUSH URGES JEB TO RUN — LATimes’ Daniel Rothberg:

“President George W. Bush said his younger brother Jeb Bush would make a ‘great president,’ as speculation builds that the Republican former governor of Florida might mount a run for the White House in 2016. … ‘I hope Jeb runs,’ the former president said during an interview on CNN. ‘I think he would be a great president. I have no clue what’s on his mind, and we will talk when he’s ready.’ In a GOP presidential primary, a new poll shows Jeb Bush and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at the front of the pack, but by an extremely narrow margin.

“According to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released this week, 14% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents each support Bush and Paul, while 13% back former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and 11% line up behind Wisconsin Rep.Paul D. Ryan. But the former president said his brother, who has said he won't make a decision until after the November election, is unconcerned with polling.” http://lat.ms/1jmNntc

MERKEL TO OBABA: NO NEW SANCTIONS — WSJ’s Matthew Karnitschnig:

“Angela Merkel is carrying a clear message from Germany's business lobby to the White House: No more sanctions. Several of the biggest names in German business — including chemical giant BAS, Siemens, Volkswagen , Adidas and Deutsche Bank — have made their opposition to broader economic sanctions against Russia clear in recent weeks …

As a result, Germany's position on additional, tougher sanctions is unlikely to shift, barring a dramatic escalation of the conflict in Ukraine — a message Ms. Merkel is expected to deliver to President Barack Obama when they meet in Washington on Friday

“As the Ukraine crisis has worsened, German officials have faced a barrage of telephone calls from senior corporate executives, urging them not to take steps that would damage business interests in Russia … Until now, Western sanctions have targeted individuals and companies, but the U.S. is pushing for broader sanctions that could hit entire Russian sectors if the situation escalates. … [M]any of Germany's largest companies have substantial Russian operations, built in some cases over decades, and worry that tough economic sanctions would rob them of a key growth market when their home market — Europe — is stagnant” http://on.wsj.com/1fyzSay

WEEKEND MUST READ — POLITICO’s Glenn Thrush and Maggie Haberman go deep on Hillary Clinton’s tortured relationship with the press: “Over the 25 years Hillary Clinton has spent in the national spotlight, she’s been smeared and stereotyped, the subject of dozens of over-hyped or downright fictional stories and books … Forget all that troubled history, and a Clinton run for president in 2016 seems like a no-brainer, an inevitable next step after the redemption of her past few years as a well-regarded, if not quite historic, secretary of state. But remember the record, and you’ll understand why Clinton, although rested, rich and seemingly ready, has yet to commit to a presidential race (people around her insist it’s not greater than a 50-50 proposition), even as she’s an overwhelming favorite.

“If she doesn’t run, the single biggest factor holding her back will be the media, according to an informal survey of three dozen friends, allies and former aides … As much as anything else, her ambivalence about the race, they told us, reflects her distaste for and apprehension of a rapacious, shallow and sometimes outright sexist national political press corps acting as enablers for her enemies … When asked why Clinton hasn’t done more to reach out to reporters over the years, one Clinton campaign veteran began to spin several theories … then abruptly cut to the chase: ‘Look, she hates you. Period. That’s never going to change.’” http://politi.co/1lF34N8

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES – Zachary Warmbrodt with details on the House Financial Committee leader’s TRIA bill [http://politico.pro/1kz1fQz] … Kate Davidson and Jon Prior on Ben Lawky’s role in whether to bring criminal charges against banks [http://politico.pro/1n3wMO2] … To learn more about Pro's subscriber-only coverage — and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m. — please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or info@politicopro.com.

GOOD FRIDAY MORNING –

DRIVING THE DAY — April employment report at 8:30 a.m. expected to show a gain of 215K and declined in the jobless rate from 6.7% to 6.6% … Hourly wages expected to rise 0.2% … Factory orders at 10:00 a.m. expected to rise 1.5% … President Obama meets with German Chancellor Angela Merkel … White House Correspondence Association Dinner festivities begin in DC

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** A message from JPMorgan Chase & Co.: Thanks to an improving economy, U.S. businesses expect to increase sales and profits this year. Read the Chase Business Leaders Outlook report : http://bit.ly/ChaseBLO to find out what nearly 3,500 small and mid-sized businesses cited as their top concerns and opportunities for the coming year.**

WHO DO MILLENNIALS TRUST? NOBODY — WP’s Catherine Rampell: “We already knew that millennials don’t trust people in general. Now we also know how little they trust people (and institutions) in particular. … About a third or less of Generation Selfie said they expect the following institutions to do the right thing at least most of the time (in order of most trusted to least): the Supreme Court, the United Nations, local government, state government, the National Security Agency, federal government, Congress, Wall Street and, dead last, the media. Basically it’s disaffection and distrust all around. Apparently, we millennials don’t even trust Jay-Z anymore.” http://wapo.st/1mjLUrl

NBA BEGINS EFFORT TO OUST STERLING — Reuters’ Larry Fine: “The National Basketball Association on Thursday launched its bid to oust Donald Sterling as owner of the Los Angeles Clippers for racist comments as a panel of 10 fellow team owners or their proxies unanimously agreed to proceed ‘as expeditiously as possible’ … The decision … seemed to indicate a strong base of support among Sterling's fellow owners for his removal, as urged by league Commissioner Adam Silver. … The unprecedented move would require a three-fourths majority vote under the league's constitution and bylaws.

“If approved, the board could then go further still and vote to seize ownership of the team for the NBA itself to sell, cutting Sterling out of the negotiations. Silver and at least two of the owners, including the interim chairman of the board, Glen Taylor of the Minnesota Timberwolves, have expressed confidence they could muster the votes necessary to force a sale. … But experts have suggested that some of Sterling's fellow owners might be hesitant to support action they felt could set a precedent weakening their own future property rights. … Sterling, who bought the Clippers in 1981 for $13 million when the team was based in San Diego, has not indicated whether he would relinquish ownership without putting up a fight. Experts have estimated that the franchise, which moved to Los Angeles in 1984, could now be worth as much as $1 billion, posing an enormous potential capital gains tax liability on Sterling if he were to sell the team” http://reut.rs/R5V3po

KEYSTONE NEAR SENATE VOTE — POLITICO’s Andrew Restuccia, Burgess Everett and Darren Goode: “It’s crunch time on Capitol Hill for the Keystone XL oil pipeline. Pressure to hold a Senate vote on the proposed pipeline reached a fever pitch Thursday as pro-Keystone senators edged toward the first — and likely only — vote to force approval of the project this election cycle. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairwoman Mary Landrieu (D-La.) and Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) introduced a bill to require approval. The legislation is co-sponsored by every Republican and 11 Democrats, many of whom face difficult reelection campaigns … Democratic sources said Thursday they are still considering having a vote on Keystone next week.

“But Democratic leaders insist there’s a hurdle: Sen. David Vitter. Democratic sources said Thursday they are still considering having a vote on Keystone next week.

But Democratic leaders insist there’s a hurdle: Sen. David Vitter. The Louisiana Republican is once again planning to latch onto an energy efficiency bill with an amendment that would gut federal health care contributions for Congress and political appointees. Democrats have no intention of allowing a vote on the amendment.” http://bit.ly/1i3BVxP

‘most dangerous 10 days’ since independence in 1991 and was struggling to counter pro-Russian separatists on the verge of taking over the industrialised eastern heartland.

Arseniy Yatseniuk, in an interview with the Financial Times, accused Moscow of plotting to foment more clashes during the May Day holidays when nostalgia for Soviet victories and achievements tends to peak. …

“Pro-Russians strengthened their grip on the east of Ukraine on Thursday, storming the regional prosecutor’s office in the town of Donetsk driving the police out and ransacking the building. The Kiev authorities fear the secessionists will put on a bigger show of strength on May 9, the commemoration of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany” http://on.ft.com/1ubsUfD

WH SEEKS TO LIMIT DATA USE — NYT’s David E. Sanger and Steve Lohr: “The White House, hoping to move the national debate over privacy beyond the [NSA’s] surveillance activities to the practices of companies like Google and Facebook, released a long-anticipated report … that recommends developing government limits on how private companies make use of the torrent of information they gather from their customers online. The report, whose chief author is John D. Podesta, a senior White House adviser, is the next step in the administration’s response to the disclosures by Edward J. Snowden … Because the effort goes so far beyond information collected by intelligence agencies, the report was viewed warily in Silicon Valley, where companies see it as the start of a government effort to regulate how they can profit from the data they collect from email and web surfing habits.

“Mr. Podesta, in an interview, said …Obama was surprised during his review of the N.S.A.’s activities that ‘the same technologies are not only used by the intelligence community, but far more broadly in the public and private spheres because there is so much collection’ from the web, smartphones and other sensors. … The report makes six policy recommendations. They include passing a national data breach law that would require companies to report major losses of personal and credit card data, after attacks like the one on Target that exposed credit card information on roughly 70 million customers.” http://nyti.ms/1pUQPQZ

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR –

INSIDE THE MIND OF THE HOMEBUYER — Survey results from Chase: “Nine of every 10 recent homebuyers felt prepared when they bought their home, but in hindsight, 56% wish they were armed with more knowledge about the financial aspects of purchasing a home .. Most recent homebuyers were surprised by how long the homebuying process took — 40% said it took longer than expected, and 34% said it cost more than expected” http://on.mktw.net/1n92kzD

WH TELLS WALL STREET TO AVOID RUSSIA EVENT — FT’s Ed Crooks in New York and Richard McGregor in Washington: “The US government is urging business leaders not to attend the St Petersburg International Economic Forum on May 22-24, saying their involvement ‘would send an inappropriate message, given Russia’s behaviour’ in Ukraine.

“Two people with knowledge of the situation said senior White House officials, including adviser Valerie Jarrett, had been phoning US executives to say that … Obama was calling on them not to attend. … Ms Jarrett is one of Mr Obama’s closest confidantes and is also the point person at the White House for dealing with senior business executives.” http://on.ft.com/1ubt9Yd

PFIZER/ASTRAZENECA TALKS BACK ON — WSJ’s Jonathan D. Rockoff and Dana Cimilluca: “Pfizer … and AstraZeneca … have resumed talks about a trans-Atlantic merger of the two drug giants, after Pfizer sweetened the terms of an earlier takeover offer for its British rival … The terms of the informal offer from New York-based Pfizer couldn't be learned. Its earlier approach, which was rejected, valued AstraZeneca at nearly $100 billion.

“The renewed discussions suggest that the two sides might be getting closer to striking a friendly deal, though there is no guarantee they will go anywhere. Pfizer made an offer to buy AstraZeneca in January that valued the British company at £46.61 a share. After the approach was disclosed this week, AstraZeneca said it ‘significantly undervalued’ the company.” http://on.wsj.com/1iPzNim

** A message from JPMorgan Chase & Co.: Businesses report growing optimism about the U.S. economy, the Chase Business Leaders Outlook report shows. Among the nearly 3,500 business leaders surveyed, 54 percent of middle market executives and 42 percent of small business owners say they are optimistic about the nation’s economic prospects for the year ahead. That is 17 percent higher for middle market companies and five percent higher for small businesses compared to last year. This good news is expected to directly impact their bottom line, with nearly three quarters of middle market companies and 67 percent of small businesses expecting to increase sales over the next 12 months. More than half of the respondents also expect to boost profits. Read the Chase Business Leaders Outlook report to learn more about what senior decision-makers at small and mid-sized businesses cite as their top concerns and opportunities for the coming year. : http://bit.ly/ChaseBLO **