Synopsis

Based on the inspirational true story of surfing icon Jay Moriarty, OF MEN AND MAVERICKS tells the story of a young man’s quest to surf Northern California’s most dangerous wave, and the local legend who takes him under his wing. What begins as a mentorship turns into a unique lifelong bond, as the two unlikely friends discover that there is nothing more powerful than pushing your limits and chasing a nearly impossible dream.

A pair of new releases led the way on the March 3rd, 2013 edition of the Blu-ray sales chart. Or perhaps there was only one. It depends on how you look at things. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 earned first place with 649,000 units / $12.96 million. However, second place went to the Breaking Dawn double-shot, which sold 173,000 units / $3.77 million. Technically those are two different releases, but one could count them as one movie. Individually, they have opening week Blu-ray shares of 23% and 29%, which is pretty bad for a first-run release. However, this franchise has always pulled in more women than men, and movies aimed at women tend not to do as well on Blu-ray.
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The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 dominated the new releases and easily took first place on the March 3rd, 2013 edition of the DVD sales chart. It sold 2.12 million units and generated $31.64 million, and did so during a shortened sales week. (It came out on Friday.) Second place went to a Breaking Dawn double-pack, which was an exclusive release. The double-shot sold an additional 418,00 units and generated $16.70 million more in sales. Add them together, and this film is already the best selling DVD of 2013, at least so far.
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It's a good week on the home market with not only one of the biggest films of the last year coming out, but also one of the best. The biggest is The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2, which should be the best selling DVD and Blu-ray for the week, but it isn't a contender for Pick of the Week. For that honor, we go back a few weeks to Frankenweenie. The screener arrived late, but it was worth waiting for and the 3D Combo Pack, while a little pricey, is worth picking up. Also in contender for Pick of the Week is Rocko's Modern Life: The Complete Series.
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Wreck-It-Ralph's opening was on the very high end of expectations, which was a pleasant surprise over the weekend. Also, Flight beat all but the most bullish predictions. Even The Man with the Iron Fists did a little better than expected. Overall, the box office soared 49% from last weekend to $138 million. It was also higher compared to this weekend last year by a very impressive 21%. November certainly got off to a great start. Year-to-date, 2012 is ahead of 2011's pace by just under 4.0% at $8.89 billion to $8.55 billion. After a couple weak months, the box office has shown great strength and it would take a disastrous collapse for 2012 to not come out ahead.
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It was a really bad weekend for new releases with none of the new films meeting expectations and two of them opening below the Mendoza Line. Argo climbed to top spot over the weekend. It used to be quite common for films to climb to the top of the chart, but the market has changed and opening weekends have become so important, so this feat is now very rare. Cloud Atlas was the best of the new releases, but "Best" here is a dubious title, as it barely grabbed second place. Silent Hill: Revolution 3D barely grabbed fifth place, while the less said about Fun Size and Chasing Mavericks the better. The overall box office collapsed by 28% compared to last week hitting just $93 million. It also fell compared to last year, the box office was down 11%, which is disappointing after a series of wins. However, last year Puss in Boots debuted and it was more of a November release opening a week early. Year-to-date, 2012 is still ahead of 2011 with the margin at $8.71 billion to $8.40 billion, or 3.8%. The goal going forward is to maintain this lead, while any growth would be more than welcome.
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There are four new films coming out in wide release this week and depending on who you ask, there are four films that have a shot at earning first place. Last Friday, I assumed Cloud Atlas would win, but its reviews have taken a major hit and it will likely finish below the overall positive level. This leaves an opening for Silent Hill: Revolution 3D, which is opening in the most theaters, but it has no reviews and direct competition. Argo has been leading the way on the daily chart and there's a chance it will climb into first place this weekend. There is also a chance that Paranormal Activity will retain first place, although it will have to avoid the predicted collapse. So which film will come out on top? I'm not sure. On the other hand, I'm fairly sure the other two wide releases will fail to find a substantial audience. Fun Size is opening in 2,800 theaters, but very few think it will do well. Even making the top five is likely out of the question. Meanwhile, Chasing Mavericks is opening in just over 2,000 theaters and it is another film that will likely miss the top five, maybe even the top ten. Compared to last year, 2012 is in trouble. Puss in Boots opened with just over $34 million and there's a small chance all four wide releases won't make that much combined this weekend. There's almost no chance 2012 will come out ahead, unless at least two of the new releases are much bigger than expected.
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2012 continues its downward path. After a record-breaking spring, thanks to The Hunger Games, and a record-breaking start to the summer, thanks to The Avengers, the box office hasn't been able to maintain any real momentum. For most of the month, September was no better than August and now the year-over-year gains are just a little more than inflation. October will need to improve or 2012 will be in real trouble. Unfortunately, that might be tough. There's not a single film coming out in October that looks like it will be a guaranteed $100 million hit and there are only two films with a realistic chance, Taken 2 and Paranormal Activity 4. (There's also Cloud Atlas, which is a wild card. That movie could bomb or be the biggest hit of the month and I wouldn't be surprised either way.) There is a chance all three will get to the century mark, but there's a better chance none of them will. Last October, two films cracked $100 million: Paranormal Activity 3 and Puss in Boots, with the latter nearly reaching $150 million. I don't see any film coming close to matching that figure. On the other hand, last year there were six films that one could accurately describe as bombs. So while 2012 is weaker at the top, it could have better depth than 2011 did. Let's hope so, because we can't afford more bad news.
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Weekly US Blu-ray Sales

Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Home Media Magazine.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Full financial estimates for this film, including domestic and international box office, video sales, video rentals, TV and ancillary revenue
are available through our research services. For more information, please contact us at research@the-numbers.com.