International Monetary Fund: China projected to overtake the US in real economic output by 2016, a first in the modern era for any country.

Several years have been thrown around, but typically they hover around 2020. This is probably the earliest forecast I have seen, at 2016. Comparing its climb with other powers in a bilateral race against the US in the century before, (the Soviet Union and Japan never quite overtook the US in their time), ‘China’s ascension has been startlingly different, in speed and size. If it grows at anything like the 10 per cent rate it has averaged since 1980, its economy will be far bigger than that of the US within a generation.’

Indeed, ‘the looming end of US economic dominance marks a turning point’ (Australian National University professor of strategic studies Hugh White) for much of the world and its old alliances

For more on China’s press statements and briefings on the IMF website, go here.

CHINA is about to overtake the United States as the world’s biggest economy, creating profound changes in the balance of global power.

In forecasts inserted quietly on its website in recent days, the International Monetary Fund has projected that, by 2016, China will overtake the US in real economic output – the first time in the modern era that any country has done so.

Economic historian Angus Maddison estimated that the Soviet Union at its peak produced only a third as many goods and services as the US; Japan’s economy at its peak was still less than half the size of the US economy. Read the rest of this entry »