Why aren’t people buying new PCs? Because they don’t have to.

Everyone knew the market for personal computers was bad, but few realized it was this bad.

On Wednesday, market research firms IDC and Gartner released reports on PC sales for the first quarter of 2013. Though the companies’ respective numbers don’t match – and in some categories diverge completely – they both paint a bleak picture.

How bad is the situation? IDC says it’s the worst drop in almost a decade. Gartner says it’s the worst since the first quarter of 2001.

Gartner sees some joy in corporate sales, where businesses are continuing to buy new hardware as part of ongoing refresh cycle. The consumer market is where the weakness lies.

Both research firms say sales of smaller, more mobile devices are a big part of the downturn. When consumers have a choice, increasingly they choose to buy tablets and smartphones instead of desktops and notebook PCs. Both IDC and Gartner say the sales of hybrid PCs – laptops that can convert to tablets – have been minimal.

The reports also cite a rickety global economy and financial uncertainty as another reason for the bad numbers.

But IDC adds another villain to the mix: Windows 8. In blunt words, IDC says that, rather than giving PC sales a traditional boost, this latest release of Windows has actually depressed sales:

“At this point, unfortunately, it seems clear that the Windows 8 launch not only failed to provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market,” said Bob O’Donnell, IDC Program Vice President, Clients and Displays. “While some consumers appreciate the new form factors and touch capabilities of Windows 8, the radical changes to the UI, removal of the familiar Start button, and the costs associated with touch have made PCs a less attractive alternative to dedicated tablets and other competitive devices. Microsoft will have to make some very tough decisions moving forward if it wants to help reinvigorate the PC market.”

HP remained at the top of both the global and U.S. shipment numbers from both IDC and Gartner, but it also had the biggest decline in the U.S. Globally, Acer had the largest decline in shipments.

The one bright spot is Lenovo, which had flat sales globally but big gains in the United States on both firms’ charts. Lenovo has a chance of passing HP as the top PC seller in the world.

But Gartner and IDC had dramatically different numbers for Apple. The maker of Macintosh computers doesn’t show up among the top vendors globally, but it’s No. 3 in the United States charts. IDC showed Apple’s shipments declined by 7.5 percent, while Gartner had them growing by 7.4 percent. Neither firm reports tablets as part of PC sales, so the discrepancy can’t be explained by including iPads into Gartner’s Apple numbers.

Note: Data includes desk-based PCs and mobile PCs, including mini-notebooks but not media tablets such as the iPad.

Source: Gartner (April 2013)

And here is IDC’s U.S. chart:

Top 5 Vendors, United States PC Shipments, First Quarter 2013 (Preliminary) (Units Shipments are in thousands)

Vendor

1Q13 Shipments

1Q13 Market Share

1Q12 Shipments

1Q12 Market Share

1Q13/1Q12 Growth

1. HP

3,570

25.1%

4,632

28.5%

-22.9%

2. Dell

3,074

21.7%

3,590

22.1%

-14.4%

3. Apple

1,418

10.0%

1,533

9.4%

-7.5%

4. Toshiba

1,279

9.0%

1,349

8.3%

-5.2%

5. Lenovo

1,274

9.0%

1,127

6.9%

13.0%

Others

3,581

25.2%

4,022

24.7%

-11.0%

Total

14,197

100.0%

16,255

100.0%

-12.7%

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, April 10, 2013

Based on what I’ve heard from readers and IT pros I’ve spoken with, I’d have to agree with IDC’s suggestion that Windows 8 is a deterring some PC purchases. I hear from a lot of folks who are very anxious about buying a PC right now because they all come from Windows 8. Companies with corporate licenses can still get all their PCs with Windows 7 (and, sadly, Windows XP), but consumers have to work to find systems with the more familiar OS.

But I’ll add one other theory: People aren’t buying new PCs because they don’t have to. The computers they bought five years ago are more than capable of handling basic tasks today. I’m writing this on a 5-year-old iMac that serves my daily needs just fine. I’ve also got a Windows PC that Irebuilt in March 2009. It’s more than adequate, even when playing games.

I’m not frightened of Windows 8, but if I was, I’d not have much incentive to buy a new machine. I suspect that’s why most potential buyers of new PCs aren’t jumping to spend their cash on Windows 8 system. Why move from something that works to something that’s unfamiliar and potentially confusing? There’s a lot more stick than carrot there for most folks.

If you’re holding off on a new PC purchase, tell us why in the comments.