Dallas Cowboys Blog

Breaking Down the ‘Boys: Cowboys beat Panthers in spite of Jason Garrett

The Cowboys left Carolina with a win, but that doesn’t mean that they deserved it. The offense was again completely stagnant, incapable of getting much going through the air or on the ground. Ultimately, Dallas was victorious in spite of the ultra-conservative play-calling from their head coach.

3rd and 9

With 3:39 left in the game, the Cowboys faced a 3rd and 9 at the Panthers’ 15-yard line. Down by one point, it seemed obvious that the Cowboys would attempt to put themselves in position for the go-ahead touchdown. Instead, Garrett called for a Phillip Tanner run right up the middle, inexplicably settling for a field goal attempt. There was just enough time left on the clock for Carolina to move down the field for the game-winning field goal, but not so much that the Cowboys could expect to get the ball back.

The decision ultimately worked out, but that doesn’t make it a good one. Over the past decade, the Cowboys have had 129 plays on 3rd and 9, passing on 88.4 percent of them. When they passed, the ‘Boys converted a first down 36.0 percent of the time—compared to 26.7 percent when they ran. Plus, the turnover percentage on the passes (6.1 percent) was lower than on the runs (13.3 percent). As the offensive coordinator of what could potentially be one of the league’s more explosive offenses, you have to trust your quarterback to make a good decision in that situation.

First Down Play-Calling

Garrett is calling too many runs on first down. Of the Cowboys’ 28 plays on first down, 18 were runs. Historically, the Cowboys and most NFL teams have been far superior when passing on first down as compared to running. NFL defenses still play to defend the run on first down, but almost all first down rushes short of five yards actually decrease the points an offense can expect to score on a particular drive. Since 2008, Garrett has called a run on 51.9 percent of the Cowboys’ first down plays. That might sound like great balance, but when you consider the ‘Boys have averaged 4.5 yards per rush and 7.6 yards per pass, you can begin to see why that percentage should really be closer to 70/30.

One of the reasons Garrett strives to maintain offensive balance on first down is that he wants to “stay ahead of the chains” to set up manageable third downs. Third down conversion rate is perhaps the most overrated stat in all of football, however; the best offenses often don’t have the top third down conversion rates and many times they’re near the bottom of the league in total third down conversions because they’re more often able to move the chains on first or second down. Manageable third downs are awesome, but not quite as awesome as not even facing third down. Garrett should be less concerned about obtaining first downs and more concerned with scoring touchdowns.

2nd and 1 Plays

In the second quarter, the Cowboys faced two 2nd and 1 situations on the same drive. Garrett called a run both times. Plays on 2nd and 1 are incredibly valuable to offenses because they provide play-callers with a ton of flexibility. Shrewd offensive coordinators often show playaction and go deep on 2nd and 1 because they’ll be left with a very short third down play in the event of an incomplete pass. It’s a great opportunity to increase offensive upside without much risk attached—opportunities the Cowboys are bypassing.

Since I began tracking plays, Dallas has faced 73 plays on 2nd and 1. Garrett has called a run on 52 of them (71.2 percent). Over that same time, all NFL teams have averaged nearly twice as many yards on 2nd and 1 passes as compared to runs. On top of that, 17.2 percent of 2nd and 1 passes have gone for touchdowns (compared to 12.1 percent for 2nd and 1 runs). Coaches are so scared of facing third down that they severely limit the upside of their offenses in favor of taking the “sure thing,” even though fewer than three-quarters of 2nd and 1 rushes have gone for a first down.

Playaction Passes

If you recall, Tony Romo was 13-for-16 for 212 yards and a touchdown on playaction passes through the Cowboys’ first five games. I need to break down the film in greater detail, but I believe Jason Garrett called two playaction passes all day. Two playaction passes. Since Dallas has been successful on playaction passes over the past few years and they don’t substantially increase the risk of a sack, I’m not really sure why we aren’t seeing them. If Garrett continues to unnecessarily limit the big-play ability of his offense, they’ll finish the 2012 season with the same .500 winning percentage they currently own.