Week 13
Note: It’s the holiday season and obligations abound. This Sunday, due to time
constraints, instead of my usual long-winded game analyses I’ll be offering
one-sentence analyses for each game along with my normal score predictions…or
trying to anyway. Thanks for reading!

Reasons: The Lions just
got shredded by the New England Patriots, and are the better teams at home on
Thanksgiving for one of the few times in my 36 years. The Bears are desperate,
but their 30th-ranked scoring defense will be without Lance Briggs
and could be without Jeremiah Ratliff, which means the Lions 10th-ranked
passing game should shred the Bears in retaliation. The Lions have a habit of
disappointing their fans, and Cutler is schizophrenic, so one never knows what
to expect out of these two teams. Lions win, Bears cover.

The Bears stunk up the joint again Thursday,
forcing their fans to wonder what they actually had to be thankful for in the
sports world. Megatron returned to form scoring two early TDs, which nearly
beat the Bears by themselves.

Reasons: The first
relevant game of the day, this NFC East battle will crown a division leader –
for now. Both teams are coming off big wins, the Cowboys having to come back
from down 11 to do so, their second-largest comeback against the New York
Giants in their long history. Both team come in with stellar scoring offenses (PHI -3rd; DAL – 7th)
and mediocre defenses, so I’d expect a shoot-out on three days rest. Little
rest and little practice time could be a bad combination for Philadelphia,
which coughs up the ball far too much (-9).
The Cowboys have a great offensive line, a killer running game (2nd), and are efficient (50% 3rd-down conversion rate).
Short rest shouldn’t affect the Cowboys too much; the question is whether
AT&T Stadium will be a home setting for the Cowboys on Thanksgiving (3-3).

There’s a reason I took the Eagles and the
points, because at the very least I saw the Eagles giving the Cowboys a run for
their Thanksgiving money. Turns out they dominated the entire game as Bad Romo
showed up and over- or under threw every single pass of the game.

Reasons: The prime time
Thanksgiving game could be the best game, especially if you like defenses. Both
NFC West teams boast top-10 yardage defenses, as well as top-10 scoring
defenses (SEA – 10th; SF – 7th).
The problem with these teams is offense. The Seahawks struggle with the passing
game (30th), but have the
best running game in the NFL. It should be noted that Marshawn Lynch is
questionable. Yeah. The 49ers also struggle with the passing game (24th), but also excel in the
run game (11th). It should
be noted Frank Gore is probable. The short week will kill these two teams, as
their physical styles will suffer with only three days to recover. I predict
the key to this game will be a costly turnover, a rarity for either team (SEA - +6; SF - +8). Both teams try to
keep pace with the Arizona Cardinals and get the short end of the week in which
to do it, so we should expect a defensive battle, rife with a few mental lapses
– just as the O/U reflects.

I’m not really sure which is to blame for the
49ers offensive woes Sunday, the 49ers or the Seahawks. The Seahawks seem to be
hitting their 2013 defensive stride, days after Cam Chancellor reportedly went
up to every single player in the locker room and personally called them out.
The 49ers offense might want to try that before Colin Kaepernick confidence
grows smaller than his head looks in those flat brim hats.

Reasons: It’s unlikely
the Panthers will get anything going offensively in the frigid wind, and the
Vikings defense is the one thing the team has going for it.

Two punts blocked for TDs in the first half
doomed the Panthers, as did the frigid temperatures (it was the second-coldest
game in Carolina history). The defense played pretty well, despite the final score,
but the Panthers offense was putrid. With the special teams playing as poorly
as they are, there seems to be no hope for Carolina a year after going 12-4. Oh
wait, they play in the NFC South.

Reasons: One of the best
games of the week, this defensive battle is crucial to both teams trying to
keep pace in their respective divisions.

The Bills keep on trucking, this time beating
the Browns and Johnny Football, who replaced Brian Hoyer in the 4th quarter.
The Bills’ defense is quietly making their case for the best defense in the NFL,
and kept pace with their division rival Dolphins in the Wild Card race. The
Browns, who also happen to be in that race, have to settle on a quarterback
before preparing for a playoff run, which may not even happen.

Reasons: The Chargers are
a great football team and they’re getting six on the road against Baltimore,
which not only reflects a transcontinental flight for an early east coast game,
but also reflects the quality of the Ravens.

The Chargers rolled out a furious comeback,
scoring the go-ahead TD on a disputed pass interference call in the end zone.
The Chargers kept pace in the AFC West, while the Ravens fell back in the one
division in the AFC that won’t allow it.

Reasons: The 2-9
Buccaneers are one of the five worst teams in the NFL statistically, and boast
a -93 point differential, so why do I feel like the Bengals are going to lose?

Perhaps my favorite call of the year, I hinted
at a Bucs upset, but went with my head and ultimately picked the Bengals. What happened?
It seemed the Bucs were going to win, but they ultimately lost. The Bengals may
lead the AFC North, but they shouldn’t, as they might be the worst team in the
division. The Bucs, on the other hand, are now 2-10, yet could still win their
division. Wonders never cease.

Reasons: The Raiders are
coming of their first win of the season, against the mighty Kansas City Chiefs
no less, but the Rams have a few solid wins under their belt and are looking to
show off against the lowly Raiders at home.

Talent and a select few statistics suggest the
Raiders aren’t technically the worst team in the NFL, but games like this make it
difficult to argue against. That said, the Rams are no joke, and took their
pre-game celebration and rode that emotion throughout the entire game,
decimating the Raiders.

Reasons: The rain and the
road don’t bode well for the reeling Saints, which seems a shell of their
former selves.

The only thing more confusing than the play of
the New Orleans Saints might be the play of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams
seem to be winning on the road and losing at home, and both teams have
displayed Jekyll-and-Hyde behavior, which is not like these two perennial playoff
teams. Then again, the Saints’ success is recent, and the Steelers success
almost seems transient at this point, as the Steelers risk missing the playoffs
for the third time in four years.

Reasons: The Falcons,
once mighty at home, have lost three straight games at the Georgia Dome and now
average half the points at home they did in their first two games. That won’t
wok against one of the best defenses in the NFL.

The law of averages could be catching up with
the Cardinals, and that “We’ve had Drew Stanton at the helm before” argument
didn’t looks o good Sunday. The Falcons, who seem to realize their terrible
division is up for grabs, settled down and actually played a good game at home
and beat a quality team.

Reasons: The Broncos are
coming off loss at the Rams, then a close win to the Dolphins, and now have to
travel to division rival Kansas City and play a Chiefs team still embarrassed
about the game they gave away to the Raiders last Thursday.

Apparently the loss to the Raiders was still
bothering the Chiefs and they forgot about their AFC West division battle with
the Broncos. Denver came in and took care of business on the road in a hostile environment,
and also took advantage of a New England Patriots’ loss to keep pace in the AFC
Conference.

Reasons: The NFL’s
top-two offenses square off in legendary Lambeau Field, where the legendary
Bill Belichick will stand opposite where the legendary Vince Lombardi once
stood and reflect on how he once surpassed Lombardi’s playoff win percentage
record years ago, only to lose it again via the amount of playoff games
coached. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady face off for the first time ever, so
expect a shoot-out.

The game of the week lived up to the hype, and
if it weren’t for a bobbled TD catch by Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots may have
won 28-26. Both quarterbacks shined, and both defenses played relatively well
considering both teams average over 32 ppg. The Packers defense clearly played
better, holding the Patriots to only 21 points after New England had been
scoring 40+ consistently.

Reasons: The Jets attempt
to play spoiler, but it won’t work against a superior Dolphins team.

The Jets put up a fight and almost ruined the
Dolphins playoff hopes with their 1940’s style of play. Geno Smith, at least I
think it was Smith – he wasn’t introduced during pre-game introductions –
attempted 13 passes and essentially watched the Jets lose their 10th
loss in twelve games. Things aren’t going well on the gridiron anywhere in New
York.

See you Thursday for Week 14: #NFL Game Predictions
(w/ spreads & analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!

Reasons: They say the
away team is at a serious disadvantage on Thursday Night games due to the short
rest and travel involved on the short week, yet the Patriots two-point win over
the Jets Week 7 is the only thing keeping the record from being .500 (5-5). I’m not counting the Seattle v. Green Bay game, as it was the first
game of the season, and didn’t involve a short week, the very thing blamed for
the away team’s supposed problems; however, even if we counted the Opening
Night game, the record would only stand at 7-5. My point is other than the
scoring differential, which is significant (21.8
points), the record, the important number, is basically a moot point. The
Kansas City Chiefs come in rolling, having just beat the defending Super Bowl
Champion Seahawks 24-20. The Chiefs are a terrible passing team (31st), and they have a hard
time stopping the run (25th)
– other than that they ball. Kansas City is the league’s top rush defense, and
2nd-ranked scoring defense; on the other side of the ball they have
the 4th-ranked running offense and rank 3rd in 3rd-down
efficiency. The Chiefs also have quality wins over New England and Seattle. The
Raiders have zero wins, and rank last
in the NFL in run offense, scoring offense, and first downs, and turnover ratio;
they rank in the bottom-five in passing yards (26th), 3rd downs (30th), run defense (27th),
and scoring defense (27th).
The Raiders basically stand no chance, except they’re home on Thursday Night,
to which I refer you to the first sentence of my analysis. One could claim this
AFC West rivalry match up could be a trap game for Kansas City, coming off the
big win against Seattle, to which I refer you to their opponent.

The Raiders went up 14-0 and seemed to control
the game from the start, although KC beat them 17-10 in the second half. Even
in victory Oakland managed to embarrass themselves, celebrating a win before the
game was even over; the celebration dance and subsequent race to the line of
scrimmage is available on You Tube. The Chiefs got caught on the road on a Thursday
Night, and the Raideres had to win at some point.

Reasons: The Lions may be
one of the best statistical teams in
the NFL, but the Patriots are one of
the best teams in the NFL. The Lions are good, don’t get me wrong, but three of
their seven wins have been by four points or fewer (two were by one point), and they’ve had to come from behind in the
second half or 4th quarter in their last three wins. The Lions don’t
allow many yards and they allow the fewest points in the NFL (15.6 ppg), but they don’t score much,
either (19.2 ppg). The Patriots are
balling, winners of six straight games and eight of their last nine and rank
among the league leaders in point differential (1st), points (2nd),
turnover ratio (+11), first downs (4th), and red zone efficiency
(6th). The Patriots are
the better team and they’re at home.

The Patriots once again made the Detroit Lions
look average against the great teams. The Lion were manhandled so badly that Lions’
center Dominic Raiola took the cheap shot of the year by cut blocking the
Patriots’ defensive line on a kneel-down. Confident he wouldn’t be fined,
Raiola was fine $10,000 today. I guess they’re dirty on both sides of the ball in
Detroit.

Reasons: People are back
off the Browns’ bandwagon, but losing to a relatively good Texans team
shouldn’t warrant such action. The Falcons, on the other hand, are the lamest
division leaders in the NFL. Atlanta can throw the ball (6th) and score TDs in the red zone (3rd), and that’s about it. Normally the Falcons ball at
home, but not in 2014 (2-2), which
doesn’t bode well against a good Browns team, especially when that 31.2 ppg
average at home is severely inflated by a 56-point performance v. the Buccaneers. If the Browns can get
to Matt Ryan at all it could be a long day for the Falcons, and Josh Gordon is
back, which means the Browns get to stretch the field and make life even harder
for one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

The Browns seemed destined to lose this game,
or least Brian Hoyer seemed destined to lose it before he hooked up with Josh
Gordon with time running out, and the Browns took advantage of terrible clock management
by Mike Smith to steal another win after being down with 10 seconds or less
remaining.

Reasons: This is a pretty
easy call. The Eagles are 5-0 at home this year and average 35.4 ppg (PHI averages 30 ppg overall). The Eagles
are one of the least efficient red zone teams in the NFL, and they turn the
ball over far too much (-9), but that
won’t matter against the Titans, who are one of the worst statistical teams in
the NFL, have the lowest 3rd-down efficiency (30%), and they’re 1-4 on the road this year averaging 14.8 ppg,
which includes a 24-10 win at KC Week
1.

Reasons: Another
relatively easy call, the Packers might be the hottest team in the NFL, winners
of six of their last seven games, while averaging 42.2 ppg during those six
wins. Green Bay also leads the league in scoring offense (33 ppg), turnover ratio (+14)
and point differential (+10), and are
among the leaders in red zone efficiency (9th)
and 3rd-down efficiency (44%).
Consider the Packers defense is playing well, and they’re dangerous. The
Vikings are a great pass defense (8th)
and that’s about it, but Aaron Rodgers is about to make them bad at that, too.

The Vikings surprised everyone and kept this a
game until the very end. The Vikings clamped down on defense and held Aaron Rodgers
to 209 passing yards, less than Teddy Bridgewater (210 yards). Eddie Lacy stole
the show with 125 rushing yards and a TD on 25 carries.

Reasons: Talk about an
easy call. Division rivals and a relative increase in the play of the Jaguars
aside, this might be the easiest of the last three games. The Jaguars are now
statistically the worst team in the NFL, and the actual worst team in the NFL now that the Raiders shocked the world
and beat the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night. The Colts were just
destroyed by the New England Patriots, and the league’s top passing offense
will be looking to rebound by taking revenge out on the lowly Jaguars.

The Jaguars are awful. They managed 194 yards
on offense and were shut out for the last 49 minutes of the game.

Reasons: The Houston
Texans have been up and down all season, their success seemingly all predicated
on JJ Watt. At least that’s what ESPN told me. The Texans are a relatively
mediocre team, save their scoring defense (8th),
and their running game (3rd),
but Arian Foster is questionable…again. The team on the other side seems to
have been up and down all season, but in reality, other than a tough stretch
Weeks 5-7 (NE-CAR-IND), the Bengals
remain one of the better teams in the NFL, despite a dramatic statistical drop
off. One thing the Texans do well is get after the quarterback, which could be
bad news for Andy Dalton, although if they don’t get after Dalton, the Texans
will be in trouble. This game could come down to the running attack of the
Bengals, which in addition to Jeremy Hill get Giovani Benard back, but I like
the Texans at home.

The Bengals held the ball for 18 more minutes
and gained 125 more yards on offense on their way to a solid road victory.
Back-up quarterback Ryan Mallet was injured, so it’s back to Ryan Fitzpatrick
next week. The banged-up Texans couldn’t handle the two-headed monster of
Jeremy Hill and Giovani Benrard and Cincinnati kept pace in the AFC North, the
first division in history to have every member three games over .500.

Reasons: Wow, what a
terrible match up. Both of these teams had high hopes coming into 2014, and now
both teams are fighting or their lives in awful divisions, with little hope of
winning them. The crazy thing is that when one looks at this match up they’re
immediately reminded of great defenses – these two teams have the worst defenses in the NFL (TB – 30th; CHI – 32nd).
The Buccaneers are hobbled and the Bears are at home, which actually shouldn’t
mean anything – they’re 1-3 at home. It’s also going to rain all day, which
could further hurt Jay Cutler’s already hurt game, but the Buccaneers are so
bad they make the Bears look mediocre.

Josh McCown (341
passing yards; 1 TD) seriously outplayed Jay Cutler (130 passing yards; 1 TD),
but four turnovers spelled doom for the Buccaneers in the driving rain. The
Bears also only gained 204 yards of offense, but a win is a win, and the Bears desperately
needed one.

Reasons: One of the best
games of the week could belong to Mother Nature. The Cardinals are the ones who
knocked off the might Seahawks at CenturyLink Field last season, and if it
weren’t for the weather I would have predicted the same thing today. Drew
Stanton fits well with this Bruce Arians offense, and the Cardinals’ defense
remains one of the best in the NFL (2nd
scoring defense; 3rd v. run). The Seahawks are coming off a
tough loss v. the Chiefs, but remain
the top rushing attack in the NFL, and still ball on defense, ranking in the
top-10 against the run and pass, and it’s supposed to be terrible weather,
something the Cardinals aren’t used to.

The Seahawks settled down, played defense, and
let Marshawn Lynch loose, both on the field and at the mic. Yeah.

Reasons: The Rams have
been on fire of late, beating the Broncos, Seahawks, and 49ers in three of the
past five weeks. Still, the Rams remain one of the worst teams in the NFL
statistically and the Chargers have some game, although at this point they
don’t seem too much better than the Rams on either side of the ball. The
Chargers lost three games in a row before their Week 10 bye, only to come back
from their long rest to barely beat the lowly Raiders 13-6. One could argue the
Raiders just beat the Chiefs, which could make that 13-6 win more meaningful,
but has anything meaningful come out of a Thursday Night game? I want to pick
the Rams badly, but my head tells my not too.

Reasons: The spread must
reflect Lamar Miller’s questionable status, the travel to chilly Denver, and
the Broncos anger, because the Dolphins are a great football team, especially
defensively, and the Broncos have proven they’re vulnerable against good
defenses, especially great front four units. The Broncos will be missing Monte
Ball and Ronny Hillman, putting the pressure on Manning to win the game against
a top-10 defense. It’s a tough task, but Manning’s a Hall of Famer player for a
reason, and the broncos are looking to keep pace in the AFC West.

Reasons: The Natives
remain one of the best statistical teams in the NFL, yet one of the worst
actual teams in the NFL, so the circus continues for the RGIII’s, which is a
far more appropriate name than their current nickname. The 49ers are a stellar
defensive unit, which is going to make life a nightmare for RGIII once again.
The question will be whether Colin Kaepernick can stay on his feet long enough
to matriculate the ball down the field to score points. The 49ers are one of
the worst teams in the NFL once they’re in the red zone, and that has to end v. the Natives, who are much better on
defense than many people realize. Turnovers will be the key to this game (WAS - -11; SF - +10).

The Natives tried and failed, so miserably in fact that the Natives benched RGIII for the following game after the worst performance of his career.

Reasons: The Cowboys are
the superior team, and Eli Manning is coming off of a 5 INT performance. Some
may think that spells a rebound game at home v. a Cowboys team that lost two of their last three games before
their bye last week. The weather will be nice and the Cowboys will be rested,
which could spell doom for the Giants.

It's a little shocking the Ginats made it this close, which could be a sign of things to come for the Cowboys, who not only stink in November and December, but have already won their requisite eight games.

Reasons: Talk about
Mother Nature having an effect on the game. Nearly eight feet of snow fell in
the Buffalo area, forcing the game to be moved to Ford Field in Detroit.
Apparently tickets have been offered for free to local residents to fill the
stadium, so it will be a great chance for Detroit-area residents to go and
harass Jim Schwartz. As for the game, the Jets are one of the worst teams in
the NFL, but the Bills lives are upside down right now, let alone the fact
they’ve barely had time to practice. Sometimes all the statistics in the world
don’t trump life. As my late graduate advisor always said: “Sometimes life gets
in the way.”

I blew this game big time. I underestimated the relief of the Bills' players once their families were safe, along with how terrible the Jets actually are.

Reasons: The Saints are
leading the NFC South division at 4-6. The Ravens are last in their division at 6-4. Confused? So is everyone else about
the play of the New Orleans Saints. Besides a perennially great offense, the
Saints have an awful defense and one of the worst turnover ratios (-9) in the league. The Ravens, on the
other hand, rank in the top-10 in several major statistical categories, and
have losses to the Colts, Bengals, and a hot Steelers team Week 9. The Saints
will be facing a great defense for the third week in a row at home (SF-CIN-BAL), but unlike the last two,
the Saints will figure this one out.

The Ravens stay tied atop their division after a big road win; the Saints stay tied atop their division after a big road loss. That's the NFL for you folks, although both are unprecedented.

Check back and see how we did Wednesday in Tuesday’s Gone: Week 12 #NFL
Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!

Reasons: A quick glance
at the schedule this Thursday night might cause a few eye rolls, but those eyes
wouldn’t belong to football fans, because this AFC East divisional battle – and
it is a battle – will be between two
top-ten defense coming off bitter losses to great teams. The Dolphins were the
victims of a Matt Stafford TD pass with 29 seconds left and lost 20-16 to the
Detroit Lions and the Bills squandered several late 4th-quarter
chances to eventually lose to the Kansas City Chiefs 17-13. The Dolphins are
the NFL’s 7th-ranked rushing team - besides that these two teams
have mediocre offenses at best. Defensively, it’s a different story: The
Dolphins come in with the 2nd-ranked run defense, the 10th-ranked
pass defense, and the allow the 5th-fewest points per game (19.0); the Bills enter the game with the
7th-ranked run defense, the 8th-ranked pass defense, and
allow the 7th-fewest points per game (20.2). Consider the injuries at key positions (Questionable: BUF – Fred
Jackson; MIA – Ryan Tannehill & Charles Clay), the weather, and the
defenses involved, and I’d settle in for a low-scoring defensive battle. Then
again, it’s Thursday night…who the hell knows what’s going to happen. I do know
I wouldn’t give the Dolphins 5.5 points against this Buffalo front four with a
questionable Tannehill.

The Bills held a 9-3 lead into the 3rd
quarter, thanks in part to a Ryan Tannehill fumble, but Tannehill 240 passing
yards; 2 TDs) and the Dolphins roared back, scoring 19 unanswered points
through the end of the 3rd quarter through the 4th. The
Dolphins held the Bills to 240 yards and 13 first downs, while sacking Kyle
Orton twice (Earl Mitchell; Olivier Vernon). The Bills defense also got after
it, sacking Tannehill five times (Mario Williams 3.5; Stefan Charles; Corbin
Bryant 0.5), but it wasn’t enough to withstand the 4th-quarter offensive
onslaught, something the Bills never accomplished.

Reasons: Does it even
matter the Panthers are home? In one of the dud games of the week, these are
two of the worst teams in the league, both with the eye test and statistically. Harry Douglas and
Devin Hester are both questionable, but so is Charles Johnson for Carolina,
essentially washing the injury advantage. Based on play I’d pick Atlanta by the
point the Sharps gave Carolina, but the Panthers are home and as desperate as
they’ve ever been in the Cam Newton era.

Carolina was down 16-3 with 11 minutes left in
the game, then led 17-16 with just over six minutes left in the game on two Cam
Newton TD passes (Kelvin Benjamin; Philly Brown). Atlanta then drove 54 yards
down the field for over four minutes on 12 plays and kicked the go-ahead FG,
before Gano missed a 47-yard go-ahead FG in, then had last-second 63-yard attempt
blocked. It’s almost as if Newton got the late news that Carolina actually had
a chance to lead the NFC South with a win, and kicked it into gear, but it wasn’t
enough in the end. So basically the Panthers should have won 20-19…but they
didn’t.

Reasons:Two duds in a
row. This game could be worse then ATL v. CAR, and it’s forecasted to snow. The
worst defense in the NFL plays one of the worst offenses in the NFL (although MIN has the 10th-ranked
runninggame)with a rookie QB in inclement weather. The one bright spot in this
match up is Minnesota’s defense, which is a pretty good unit. That will be the
difference.

I called Bears score, and that’s about it. Well,
I guess you could say I also predicted Teddy Bridgewater’s poor play, but I
still expected more than 156 passing yards with a 5.6 yards per attempt
average; Bridgewater also threw an INT (1 TD). The Bears’ defense held the
Vikings to 248 yards and only 10 first downs (2-11 3rd down), but
the Vikings defense, the astronomically better unit, gave up 468 yards to the
desperate Bears, who had their best game in weeks. Jay Cutler threw for 330
yards and 3 TDs (2 INTs), mostly to Alshone Jeffery (11 of 17 targets for 135
yards and a TD) and Brandon Marshall (7 of 10 targets for 90 yards and 2 TDs). Matt
Forte even got involved and rushed for 117 yards and 2 TDs on 26 carries (4.5
ypc).

Reasons:Both of these
teams boast good defenses (Scoring
defense:HOU – 11th; CLE –
6th), and respectable offenses (Scoring offense: HOU – 16th; CLE – 15th).
Both teams also cause many turnovers (HOU
- +7; CLE - +9), and despite the Texans losing record, both teams have
positive point differentials. The difference here could be injuries as both
teams could be missing key players, but Cleveland is simply the better team.

The Texans surprised everyone outside of
Houston and not only beat the Browns, but JJ Watt also caught a TD pass. Watt
also sacked Brian Hoyer and recovered a fumble, furthering his case for league Defensive
Player of the Year, if not MVP.

Reasons: Finally, an
unbelievable match up. The Seahawks are getting
two on the road, which speaks volume about the Chiefs play this season…and the
Seahawks fall. Although only from the first story, Seattle has fallen off from
their dominant selves, via free agency and attrition, and Kansas City is
serious team with a serious coaching staff, something the Seahawks lack. Ok,
Pete Carroll is plenty serious, just Cali-relaxed, which won’t play well in the
snow v. the Kool Aid man. This game
will be relegated to the ground for Seattle, as they have the top-ranked
running game v. the Chiefs’ 20th-ranked
run defense, and also because the Seahawks have one of the worst passing games
(30th) and the Chiefs ball
on the pass (1st). Beast
Mode won’t be enough Sunday.

Both teams went wild running the ball (SEA –
204; KC – 190), Seattle held the ball nearly 12 more minutes, held Alex Smith
to 102 passing yards, and forced two fumbles, yet the Chiefs came away with the
win and are right up there with the Cardinals and Patriots as the best team in
the NFL. Jamal Charles scored 3 TDs and Kniles Davis scored another as the
Chiefs literally ran all over the Seahawks. For the record, I called Seahawks
score.

Reasons:Seven points?
I’m not sure about that, but I sure about a Saint’s win. The Bengals once
top-ranked defense has fallen to average, and the Saints’ offense is rolling,
ranking 3rd (pass offense),
6th (run offense), and 6th
(scoring offense) in three of the
major offensive metrics. The Bengals are average, statistically, for a 5-3-1
team, but they’ll be missing several key guys on defense, and the Saints’ are
home, which is usually a pretty simple indicator of a Saint’s win.

Just when people thought the Saints might run
away with the NFC South they lose at home. Huh? Nothing really sticks out in
this game statistically, other than the Saints’ anemic running game, which
allowed the Bengals to focus on Jimmy Graham and take him out of the game (3
receptions on only 3 targets). The Bengals offense bounced back nicely after
one of their worst statistical performances in their long history last week,
with Andy Dalton (3 TDs), AJ Green (6 of 8 targets, 127 yards, 1 TD) and Jeremy
Hill (152 yards on 27 carries) all shining.

Reasons: Sigh. The
Natives are one of those teams that can fool you into making poor prediction
decisions, because statistically, they’re still riding the insane passing
metrics that Kirk Cousins put up before he was benched for Colt McCoy. Yeah.
Now RGIII is back, and it’s hard to believe, but that doesn’t mean anything.
This could be another defensive battle, as both teams have good defenses (statistically), and turnovers will be an
issue (TB: -9; WAS: -7).

Wow, are things awful in Washington. The
politics are in rough shape, too. RGIII continues to play poorly and then
follow it up with and even poorer performance at the post-game conference. RGIII
was sacked six times and threw two INTs (1 TD), although he rushed for another
41 yards on six carries. The Buccaneers are one of the worst teams in the
league and the destroyed the Natives, at least on the scoreboard. It’s that
bad. But then again, it’s always been this bad.

Reasons: Don’t sleep on
the Rams. St. Louis hasn’t played a dud opponent since Week 2 (DAL, PHI, SF, SEA, KC, SF, ARZ), and
they managed to beat the Seahawks at home and the 49ers on the road. You’d
never know it statistically – the Rams are awful on paper, ranking in the
bottom-five of most metrics, save pass defense (ranked 13th). Well, what do you know? I think Denver
passes a bunch. Before I get carried away, the Broncos are one of the best
complete teams in the NFL, but I’m here to analyze the games AND the spreads. The Broncos aren’t
winning by 10 points on the road against these Rams.

I swear, for a minute I thought about making
this my upset of the week, if not the year. The way the Rams had been playing, especially
against great teams (SF, SEA), I knew they had a shot against Denver at home,
but I also thought the Broncos would be nearly unstoppable after losing to New England
in an attempt to keep pace, and didn’t expect Julius Thomas and Emmanuel
Sanders to be injured, the latter on a completely clean, but devastating hit.
The Rams held the ball for nearly 12 more minutes and forced Manning into two
more INTs (1 TD), although he threw for 389 yards, and kept the Broncos to
their lowest point total since acquiring Peyton.

Reasons: The 49ers might
be the best 5-4 team in the league, and the Giants shouldn’t even have three
wins. Because of Eli Manning and the Giants WR corps, the Giants’ offense is
mediocre; otherwise the Giants are terrible, especially on defense. The 49ers
have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and get some key guys back this week
(e.g. Aldon Smith), which only makes
SF better. The 49ers should run all over the Giants, literally.

This game had moments akin to NFC playoff games’
past, but none of those quarterbacks threw five INTs. The 49ers held the ball
for ten more minutes and rushed for 148 rushing yards on 37 carries,
controlling the clock after every one of Eli Manning’s terrible five INTs. The
Giants stayed in the game, despite Manning’s five INTs, but Eli’s five INTs
made it impossibly to win. Did I mention Eli Manning threw five INTs?

Reasons:It’s well known how awful the winless
Raiders are, but Oakland isn’t the worst team in the NFL; in fact, they’re far
from it. Well, 4-5 spots from it. The Raiders are abysmal offensively, but have
an average defense, which is saying something. The Chargers remain an
above-average team, despite losing their last three games (KC, DEN, MIA), and are superior to Oakland statistically, with the
exception of the running game, which will only improve with key players back
from injury.

A surprising defensive battle, the Chargers held
the Raiders to nine first downs, 233 total yards, and 3-15 3rd down efficiency.
The Chargers didn’t fare much better (18 FD, 300 yards, 4-15 3rd down)
but they held the ball for ten more minutes, forced a Raiders’ fumble, and
controlled the clock with 32 rushing attempts. The Raiders, the only winless
team in the league, are now 0-10.

Reasons:One of the best
games of the week, these two teams have two of the most prolific scoring
offenses in the league (PHI – 4th;
GB – 5th), both teams have two of the highest scoring
differentials (PHI - +9; GB - +8),
and both teams have the ability to get after it defensively. To boot, both
teams “win” their games by average scores of 31-22 (PHI) and 31-23 (GB) –
pretty even match up. The difference here could be turnovers - the Eagles are
at -5 on the season, the source of their few losses and several nail-biters,
while the Packers take things from people (­+10)
and capitalize. I would never take the points, but I do think Aaron Rodgers is
hitting his stride, which makes the Packers as dangerous as anybody.

The Eagles were down 30-6 at halftime and never
had a chance. Aaron Rodgers was on fire again, throwing for 341 yards and three
TDs. The Green Bay defense picked off Mark Sanchez twice and sacked three times,
and LeSean McCoy (3.8 ypc) was ineffective. These two teams could start trending
in opposite directions if the Eagles don’t figure out the quarterback situation.

Reasons: Another Week 11
gem, the Cardinals lost Carson Palmer for the season, but it might not matter –
they’ve basically been without him most of the season anyway season. The Lions
are one of the best teams in the league, statistically, but scrap and claw for
every win. The Cardinals have the best record in the NFL, but almost every
pundit in the business can’t figure it out and points to their turnover ratio (+12), and how much they capitalize on
those turnovers. It’s going to be a close, low-scoring game, but before you
pencil the Lions in for a win against Drew Stanton on the road, keep in mind
the Cardinals have won these-type games all season.

Drew Stanton threw two TDs in the first nine
minutes of the first quarter to Michael Floyd, and that was basically the end
of the game. The Cardinals defense held the Lions to 11 first downs and only
262 total yards, and sacked Matt Stafford four times, thanks in part to Patrick
Peterson blanketing Calvin Johnson.

Reasons: Perhaps the game of the week, the feature Sunday
Night game pits the top-ranked scoring offense (IND) v. the 3rd-ranked
scoring offense (NE), two teams that,
like the Eagles and Packers, have identical point differentials (+9) and “win” their respective games by
average scores of 31-22 (NE) and
32-23 (IND). Both defenses are
mediocre, but it won’t matter against these prolific offenses. Once again, the
big difference here is turnovers – NE is tied with ARZ with a +12 turnover
ratio, while the Colts are dead even (0).
I expect Bill Belichick’s complex scheme to confuse the Stanford product and
force more of those turnovers, which NE should capitalize on, leading to a
Patriots’ victory.

The Patriots offense, led by former practice
squad running back, and now the current AFC Offensive Player of the Week Jonas
Gray, steamrolled the Colts awful run defense. Gray rushed for 201 yards and a ridiculous
four TDs on a whopping 37 carries. Rob Gronkowski added 71 colorful receiving yards
and a TD, and blocked Sergio Brown into the NBC camera after claiming Brown was
“talking smack”. Despite Luck’s most recent stellar performance (303 passing
yards, 2 TDs), the Colts only rushed for 19 yards on 16 carries, and the
Patriots defense defended seven of Luck’s passes. A 14-10 game at the half, in
which the Colts’ scored on a Luck to Nicks TD pass with 55 seconds left, the
Patriots made it 28-13 by the end of the 3rd quarter, only to see
the Colts get within seven on a Colby Fleener TD catch, before the Patriots
rattled off 14 unanswered points to seal the quality win.

Reasons: The Steelers are
coming off a loss to the Jets and the Titans start a rookie quarterback and are
terrible. The Titans’ run defense, ranked 11th, is the only
respectable aspect of the Titans’ team, and the Steelers couldn’t care less
because they throw it a ton and throw it well (4th-ranked pass offense). The Steelers might be a little
banged up on defense, but the Titans could be missing their two best offensive
players (DerekMcCluster; Delanie Walker).

The Steelers were down 24-13 with less than
four minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter, but 14 4th-quarter
unanswered points sealed the win for the suddenly reeling Steelers. The Titans
managed only 14 first downs, but gained 312 total yards on only 39 plays (8.0
ypp), including 263 passing yards and two TDs (1 INT) from the rookie Zach
Mettenberger. The Titans also sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times and picked
him off, but proved they still have a long way to go before they can play on
the big stage on Monday Night. I am though, as I called yet another score.

Check back next week for Week 12: #NFL Game Predictions
(w/ spreads & analysis) at ProFootballMedia.com!