2019 RBC Heritage Classic DFS Preview

This past week’s
Masters has to go down as one of the greatest weeks of golf in the history of
the sport as Tiger Woods not only completed one of the best personal comeback
stories the sporting world has ever seen to capture his 15th major,
he did so in compelling fashion by erasing a two stroke deficit on the back
nine Sunday and prevailing over many of the game’s elite that were around the
top of the leaderboard. We will all be fighting a Masters hangover this week
but the PGA Tour has an event scheduled so after pausing for a moment to take
it all we will take a look at this week’s RBC Heritage held a Harbour Town Golf
Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina, a venue that is often voted as one of the
best on the schedule.

Harbor Town Golf Links: Par 71, 7,099 yards. Harbor
Town is one of the more interesting layouts on the PGA Tour. The course is a
classic Pete Dye design that features tight, treelined fairways, and abundant
hazards. This is a target course with several doglegs that will require players
to hit their spots off the tee in order to leave themselves with a good
approach angle. Because hitting the right part of the fair is so critical,
players will club down off the tee, this leads to a higher than average rate of
fairways hit. The greens at Harbor Town are some of the smallest and most
difficult to hit on tour with an average GIR percentage that is 15% lower than
the average PGA Tour venue. However, scrambling is easier with an average up
and down conversion rate of 61% vs. the 57% Tour average. The course has three
par fives with the two on the front nine being the best opportunities for
birdies or better. The signature hole is the long par four 18th
where players will be hitting a mid to long iron into a green partially
surrounded by marshlands in likely windy conditions that will test of the
nerves of players near the cutline on Friday afternoon.

This is a second
shot course so we will want to key in on strokes gained approach. The short
layout will lead to approach shots clustering in the 125-175 yard range so we
will want to key in on proximity from those distances. Bogey avoidance and
scrambling will also play an increased role this week as small greens and fewer
overall scoring opportunities will make it harder to get back dropped shots. Weather
will also increase the importance of the scrambling stats as high winds are
expected throughout the week.

Here are our top
stats to consider this week:

Strokes Gained Approach

Good Drives Gained

Opportunities Gained

Bogey Avoidance

Scrambling Percentage

Usually we see a
watered-down field the week after a major, but this year’s edition of the RBC
Heritage has one of the strongest fields in recent memory as the course is a
favorite among many players on the PGA Tour. Title sponsor RBC also has a
strong lineup of staff players who are likely under an obligation to play this
week. Some of the Team RBC members headlining the field this week include
Dustin Johnson, Matt Kuchar, Brandt Snedeker, Jim Furyk, and Graeme McDowell.
We will also see quite a few of the big names who were in contention on Sunday
at Augusta teeing it up again this week as Francesco Molinari, Xander
Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, and Webb Simpson will all be in the field. Also,
as the course has the tight off the tee and small green feel we see in many
Euro Tour courses, it should not be a big surprise that quite a few Europeans
will be in the field this week including bigger names like Ian Poulter, Tommy
Fleetwood, Alex Noren, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Rafa Cabrera Bello. With a stronger
than average field this week we will have plenty of options to choose from so
let’s get to the picks. Here are three targets for your cash game / single
entry tournament (GPP) lineups on DraftKings:

Upper
Mid-Range – Jim Furyk – $9,400

On a course with
difficult to hit greens it is important to target players who have been sharp
with their irons as well as showing the ability to be able to get up down and
grind out pars. This has been the name of the game as of late for Furyk as over
his last 24 rounds he comes in ranked 4th in the field in strokes
gained approach and 2nd in bogey avoidance. It is also worth
mentioning that his bogey avoidance stats do not take a hit in rounds played in
extremely windy conditions. He also has the upside protentional we like to see
at this price as he won this event just four years ago.

Mid-Range – Ian Poulter – $8,600

I do not target
Poulter in cash games all that much but course fit, conditions, and recent form
converge to make this a play worth considering. He looked very sharp last week
at The Masters as we have continued to see improved ball striking to go along
with his superb scrambling ability. His ability to grind out pars will also be
useful in the expected windy conditions and he has recorded top 15 finishes at
Harbour Town in each of his last two starts.

Lower
Mid-Range – Ryan Moore – $8,100

Last time we saw
Ryan Moore was two weeks ago at the Valero where he was throwing darts with his
short irons coming down the stretch in a weekend charge that came up just
short. You can tell he was confident in his wedge game as he chose to lay up on
a couple of the short par fours most of the field was attacking with driver and
made it pay off by knocking it to tap in range. He comes in to the week ranked
7th in the field over his last 12 rounds in strokes gained approach
and ranks 1st in the field in long-term historical proximity from
125-150 yards. He only made his debut at Harbour Town in 2018 but apparently
liked what he saw as he finished in 16th place and has decided to
return in 2018..