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Libyan rebels enter Tripoli from the west

Libyan rebels have entered the capital Tripoli from the west and are about eight kilometers from the center of the city, Britain's Sky news reported on Sunday, quoting its reporter on the ground.

The reporter, speaking by telephone, said crowds of Libyans had poured into the streets to greet the advancing rebel army, adding that there were no signs of resistance from forces loyal to veteran leader Muammar Gaddafi.

Quote:

Libyan rebel forces ill-equipped to fight their way into a city the size of Tripoli may look to locally brokered deals or a burgeoning popular uprising to break the will of Muammar Gaddafi's forces.

Libya's civil war so far has involved some serious urban fighting in towns such as Misrata, but most battles have been relatively small skirmishes.

If Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi retains the loyalty of large numbers of security forces in the capital, the ragtag opposition forces could struggle and there would be little NATO air strikes could do without risking civilians.

"I'm assuming the Tripoli fighting could be the fiercest," said Hayat Alvi, lecturer in Middle East politics at the United States Naval War College. "The wild card will be the Tripoli public. True loyalties will have to finally manifest themselves. I'm predicting in the rebels' favor, but we don't know what Gaddafi and his sons have up their sleeves."

Gauging the loyalty of Tripoli's population is far from easy. Gaddafi loyalists have put on many marches and demonstrations of loyalty in recent months, but hundreds if not thousands of his opponents also took to the streets in the early stages of the uprising before they were cowed.

The rebels will hope security forces will melt away.

Some say Gaddafi himself might already have fled, perhaps to his hometown of Sirte or a desert base further south. The long speeches at boisterous public meetings have given way to broadcast addresses delivered on scratchy telephone lines.

But others say the nascent uprising reported in Tripoli on Saturday night might have come too soon, with opposition forces still too far away to help. Despite rhetoric of taking Tripoli and ending the war in hours or days, some analysts suspect it is more likely the rebels will cement their stranglehold on the city and then see how events play out.

"I think they'll wait on the outskirts and hope for either an uprising or that Gaddafi decided to call it a day and leaves," said David Hartwell, Middle East analyst for IHS Jane's. "If they do go in, they could find it very difficult and they will be keen to avoid that. It's relatively obvious that NATO has been providing close air support for the rebels."

"That's one thing in open countryside or lightly populated areas -- although it pushes the Security Council mandate, to put it mildly -- but it would be almost impossible in Tripoli."

KEY FIGURES ALREADY GONE?

Gaddafi's government seems keen to broker some kind of last-minute ceasefire that would keep them in power. But few believe either the rebels or NATO would agree to that at this stage.

In Paris, a diplomatic source said rebel cells undercover in Tripoli were putting into action plans prepared months ago. He said, however, the rebels were under orders not to enact revenge killings or summary executions against senior members of Gaddafi's camp.

Saad Djebbar, a former lawyer for the Libyan government, told Reuters he believed many key figures loyal to Gaddafi had already fled to other countries in Africa such as Niger, Mali and Chad where they had good contacts.

"The big sharks have already left the scene, he said. "It's not going to be Stalingrad. Tripoli is very small. People know each other. People negotiate their way forward. Gaddafi is bound to have some people who will put up a symbolic fight. But these are mostly thugs and there is no organized force left of any size to check the rebels."

If the rebels are wrong and significant Gaddafi forces remain, strategists say they could be in serious trouble. Urban warfare is notoriously challenging and bloody, giving a clear advantage to the defender, while some doubt the opposition have sufficient supply lines to sustain an offensive.

"The costliness of urban fighting cannot be overestimated," said political risk consultancy Stratfor in a note. "Such warfare requires a well-trained force with high morale, and the rebel forces in the west are known to be few in number... and extremely ill-trained."

The key battle now, Stratfor said, was psychological -- with the rebel agenda to paint a picture of inevitable victory that would enthuse new uprisings and prompt Gaddafi loyalists to abandon their cause to save their necks.

GADDAFI CHOICES KEY

Much, of course, will depend on how Gaddafi himself chooses to play the endgame. He could still perhaps go into either internal or external exile or simply try to copy Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and disappear into the post-war chaos.

Saddam evaded U.S. forces for months following the 2003 fall of Baghdad before they eventually tracked him down -- although most analysts believe such a scheme would prove tougher in Libya because of its more disparate geography.

Even if opposition forces were able to take much of Tripoli relatively easily and bloodlessly, they might still struggle to take down the final remnants of the regime.

Then, the situation could resemble that seen earlier this year in Ivory Coast, where opposition fighters loyal to Alassane Ouattara took much of the capital Abidjan but seemed unable to capture incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo.

It took the actions of French helicopter gunships and troops already based in the country to eventually breach his compound and bunker, allowing his capture by local forces.

The International Criminal Court in The Hague indicted Gadaffi, his eldest son and spy chief for crimes committed during their initial crackdown. That might yet prompt foreign military action to help the rebels capture him.

"I would have thought NATO would be very keen let the rebels get Gaddafi themselves as they possibly can," said IHS Jane's Hartwell. "But if it really came down to getting him out of a hole, you could see some Western involvement as we did in Abidjan. The ICC warrant could make it justifiable in that context." (Additional reporting by William Maclean and Catherine Bremer; editing by Ralph Boulton)[/release]

Libyan rebels have entered into Tripoli, it appears they haven't met any sort of resistance yet. A Libyan official has just got and asked for another ceasefire, but it seems like it's too late at this point. The rebels have progressed too far, I think the end is near.

Re: Libyan rebels enter Tripoli from the west

Yeah, there was some fake pictures circulating of him dead, but they were just pictures of some dude from the Osama raid.

I think the worries lay more in what will happen with a post civil war Libya. I'm not making him out to see like a better guy than he really is, cause he was an oppressive asshole.. But Gaddafi actually did a lot for Libya in terms of infrastructure, education etc. Libya is one of the better off African countries with a high literacy rate (I believe 83 percent?) all thanks to Gaddafi's efforts over the years..

But of course this doesn't excuse his disgusting crimes he has committed. I just hope that the country can rally together properly and not fall apart, as is usually the worry after something like this.

Re: Libyan rebels enter Tripoli from the west

I love how hypocrite the Libyan people are... when Gaddafi still had the upper hand they were still loyal to him and didn't bother to show it, but now that the rebels seem to have achieved victory the people are with them now... they are with whichever side is winning...

And now Libya should say hi to permanent chaos, debt slavery, and destruction of whatever shows that it's an muslim country.
How can anyone think that in the near future every Libyan will be rich and living in dignity and zero problems ? I bet in the years to come nothing good will be achieved.

"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect."

Re: Libyan rebels enter Tripoli from the west

When the rebels started fighting they had littler resources, weapons and were being wiped out by gadaffi. it is kinda understandable they would not openly support them if their ruthless and not very forgiving dictator seemed to have every card in his favor. Now the tables are turned, Gadaffi is the one that is on the run meaning that people can openly support the rebels with significantly less fear from a massacre.

That said, no one thinks every libian will be living rich and with dignity. Such an scenario does not exist in a single nation in the world (a few do come reasonably close however their situation for a number of reasons is not applicable to countries that have a reasonably larger population) and it is not about to magically come by. Libya got rid of a ruthless dictator but it will still have to deal with the troubles every other nation in the world deals with in some form of another. I am no Muslim but I do hope what you said about Muslim culture is not accurate. Muslim culture needing a ruthless culture to survive does not speak very well of muslim culture at all to say the least.

Re: Libyan rebels enter Tripoli from the west

Originally Posted by kkck

I am no Muslim but I do hope what you said about Muslim culture is not accurate. Muslim culture needing a ruthless culture to survive does not speak very well of muslim culture at all to say the least.

I think this is very related to tradition...the type of ruling will always imprint a certain mentality on the population, on public opinion, education etc...I think people in Libya still need a ruthless ruling, but that will change if they will start practicing or at least attempt practicing democracy...

And the reason for that is transition takes humongous periods of time...people cannot cope with sudden changes...and unfortunately I speak from a more or less personal point of view

Re: Libyan rebels enter Tripoli from the west

In 1938 one could also say that European culture was incompatible with liberalism. Since the beginning of the 19th century only a handful of European states had experimented fitfully with liberal democracy. Democracy was in retreat across Europe after World War I. Post war democracies in Italy and Germany had collapsed, Russia was under Communist rule, and many of the new states created from the ashes of Austria-Hungary and Imperial Russia were being taken over by fascist inspired governments. Portugal was already a dictatorship under Salazar while Franco was in the process of defeating the Republicans in the Spanish Civil War. An observer than could easily say that democracy in Europe was a failed experiment. History has proven that to be erroneous, democracy thrived in the west after World War II and has taken hold in much of the east after the fall of communism.

Bene is right: democracy takes work and simply installing a liberal constitution is not enough to guarantee success. Legitimacy needs to be built, tradition needs to develop, and the people need to see themselves as citizens of one country. This does not have anything to do with Muslim culture though but is universal to all new democracies. There is every reason to believe that democracy can take root in Libya, just as there are many reasons to worry that it will not. Libya has one advantage: few vested interest. Gaddafi was so ruthless and invested so much national power within his inner circle that there is no one left to exploit his removal. He was afraid of a coup so there army was deliberately weakened. His loyal forces were destroyed with them. The military was also kept out of business, so none of the officers have personal holdings to protect. Gaddafi feared the tribes as a potential alternative source of intelligence, so he spent the last forty years undermining there influence. Tribe seems to have some importance, but not enough to undermine loyalty to the new government.

I love how hypocrite the Libyan people are... when Gaddafi still had the upper hand they were still loyal to him and didn't bother to show it, but now that the rebels seem to have achieved victory the people are with them now... they are with whichever side is winning...

Demonstrations in Tripoli were violently suppressed last February, Gaddifi maintained control by force after he lost control of Benghazi and the east. Tripoli has been under the boot of Gadaffi' goons for the last six months, anyone with a gun pointed at their head and the heads of their family, can not be accused of being political frontrunners. It should not be overlooked that opposition groups in Tripoli, despite being under constant surveillance were able to coordinate battle plans with the rebels over the last few months. Planned uprisings erupted in coordination with the pincer attack by the rebels, allowing them to quickly gain control of strategic corridors of the city. The citizens of Tripoli did not suddenly change sides when the rebels showed up, they were in contact with the rebesl, a strategy was in place and they were prepared for the war to come to them.

Re: Libyan rebels enter Tripoli from the west

No one ever said democracy was a perfect system, no coherent person with a lone functional braincell really believes democracy is a magical solution to the worlds problems. If it was the world wouldn't have 3 billion people with no access to food, telephone and internet to say the least. It takes a look at countries with sad excuses of populist governments where people relentlessly vote for demagogues who do nothing but talk crap about developed countries to blame them for everything (every now and then they point out something which is true though) which is wrong with the world and make it appear as if it was their fault that their country is screwed (thus turning democracy into little more than a pageant with the bigger demagogue winning) to see democracy in itself is inherent flawed.

There are a number of things which I do think are good aspects of democracy. For one thing, people can be screwed with a ruthless dictator they didn't choose or they can be screwed with a demagogue they did choose. I would argue it is better to at least have the choice of who will systematically screw up everything. Who know, maybe hey might even get it right sometime and make a little better for themselves. Overall, democracy is the better option among an overwhelming number of bad options. It won't solve everything but assuming democratic principles are properly applied then the people at least have a better shot.

On another note, I do think nationalism is stupid and it should be separated from democracy. it served its purpose to end large monarchies back in the day and unite people as nations however nowadays I find that it does more damage than what it helps. It could still work in potential new nations though (Libya will definitely need a bit of that to get their democracy started).