But Sinema’s charisma might not be the only reason for her polling strength. The poll also suggests the Republicans are hurt by voters’ disapproval of Trump, who is viewed unfavorably among all voters 56 to 43, and among independents by a whopping 74 to 25.

Arizona’s Senate seat is open, thanks to Flake’s decision to retire rather than face a difficult re-election campaign. Before his departure, polls showed Sinema beating Flake too. But at least there, the GOP could have written that off as Flake being widely regarded as too disloyal to Trump, despite supporting Trump’s agenda.

And to be fair, none of Arizona’s current GOP Senate candidates need Trump’s help to be toxic.

But one thing all of these candidates have in common is their shameless attempts to claim the mantle of Trump. The Republican primary has become a contest over who is the most authentic Trump disciple. That all three of these candidates are down in polls signals that Trump support is not an asset.

After just a year in office, Trump is threatening to do what decades of Democratic strategists only dreamed of: turn Arizona blue.