Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds
is the fifth installment in the National IntelligenceCouncil’s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. As with previouseditions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends andpotential discontinuities. We distinguish between megatrends, those factors that will likely occur under any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are far less certain. Finally, as our appreciation of the diversity and complexity of various factors has grown, we have increased our attention to scenarios or alternative worlds we might face.