I would not trust Mr Sakurai. It appears the BOJ has already been trying to put a floor under USDJPY around current levels.

Parisib09:46:24 GMT - 04/01/2016

Agreeing with Yellen then? All we need is Draghi to come out now and say yes well the Euro is not too strong and we have one voice sanctioning a weaker USD or at least admitting to the inevitability of a weaker USD (depending on your point of view I guess).

GVI Forexjohn bland09:44:07 GMT - 04/01/2016

BOJ's Sakurai
-- USDJPY 80 would be too weak
-- "JPY is not so strong"
-- Cannot guarantee 2% inflation in five years dye to various uncertainties
-- BOJ policy exit far in future

JP - the anti-Trump hysteria in the press is just amazing to me. But is it just smoke and mirrors? I think so. Let's make a fuss over here while Hillary just keeps going.

MtlJP15:31:40 GMT - 03/31/2016

re The Economist Intelligence Unit ... Huff's Editor’s note: Donald Trump is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist, birther and bully who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims — 1.6 billion members of an entire religion — from entering the U.S.

that is one some unbiased editor lol
Probably scared witless of losing their job

therein lies the fear of someone other than Hllary or a Certified Repub Game Player. Europe and China are NOT part of the FEDs mandate. Nor is paying interest on Foreign bank deposits held at the FED. Nor is the FRBNY trading activities is stocks and futures and who knows what else.

MtlJP13:01:32 GMT - 03/30/2016

apparently Evans said he sees 'lot of risk' from China and Europe
hehe, but none from the FED ?
-
It could get welly intellesting if there should develop a blamegame amongst the cretins.

Particularly for Gold.

dcCB12:51:44 GMT - 03/30/2016

Yellen is like that tale - The Princess and the Pea.

Only in her case it's The Old Crone and the Pea.....oh oh oh there is a Lump in my mattress....I certianly cannot raise rates with this lump in my mattress.

Making sure Hillary gets elected...if not her the an "acceptable" Republican. So the GAME can continue.

GVI Forexjohn bland12:44:12 GMT - 03/30/2016

Fed's Evans (dove)
-- would be surprised if they raise rates in April
-- every meeting is live
-- accomodative policy is appropriate
-- global risks higher than in December
-- expect 2 to 2-1/2% growth this year
-- expects 2 rate hikes this year

PAR12:40:50 GMT - 03/30/2016

ADP of 200000 should bring us a NFP of around 250000.
Good job growth .

08:34 (US) Fed's Evans (dove, non-voter in 2016): Global risk is higher than it was in December, which is reflected in the adjusted dot chart - CNBC
- If economic data comes in stronger, the FOMC could adjust the dot chart to reflect more than the two hikes currently indicated
- There is no need to raise rates too quickly, rates will normalize eventually
- All meetings are live meetings, including the April meeting, would be surprised if we achieved necessary inflation conditions for an April move
- not seriously concerned about a hard landing for China- labor market improvements have been quite strong

Nice ADP matters not. Obama Admin. will not dare increase interest rates, so to keep the pace of the economy until elections.

dcCB12:27:55 GMT - 03/30/2016

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market continues on its amazing streak. The March job gain of 200,000 is consistent with average monthly job growth of the past more than four years. The only industry reducing payrolls is energy as has been the case for over a year. All indications are that the job machine will remain in high gear.”

Interesting that Yellen offered nothing to the "hawks" who last week brought up the possibility of a rate hike in April. I heard nothing from her that suggests that a rate hike is even in consideration for as early as June. I would take this as a rebuke if I were them.

I would take this as USD negative.

GVI Forexjohn bland17:23:44 GMT - 03/29/2016

5-yr 1.335% 2.38 bid to cover 2.44 prev
mediocre auction.

Parisib17:22:08 GMT - 03/29/2016

CS - it's a fine line. If they want a weaker USD the problem is they could easily loose control of that. Who knows maybe they can pull it off.

SydneyACC17:12:44 GMT - 03/29/2016

“ I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant”

― Alan Greenspan

FWCS17:11:34 GMT - 03/29/2016

ib if they do what you suggest then $ craters to freefall. I think the US want a slow fall which is why they keep threatening to raise rates.

GVI Forexjohn bland17:11:32 GMT - 03/29/2016

The odds of one single hike in Fed Funds now by year end at just above 80% from 92% earlier today and 96% late last week.

PAR17:08:01 GMT - 03/29/2016

If you can not CONVINCE > CONFUSE .

GVI Forexjohn bland17:07:10 GMT - 03/29/2016

fed focus seems mainly to be on global growth. In other words, it appears to be pivotal.

PAR17:04:59 GMT - 03/29/2016

Yellen - Unemployment figures are maybe not as good as they look . A lot of part time jobs etc

MtlJP17:04:23 GMT - 03/29/2016

charade to support the dollar - how do u figure ?
-
what is dancing in Janet's head is her causing a better financial crisis than that the one the FED caused 8 yrs ago

at the moment she needs to be careful not to cause the herd to run to one side of the boat

Parisib17:01:25 GMT - 03/29/2016

John - the AUD (always the first to run with this - when the USD is gaining the AUD gets trashed and vice versa) is running with the weaker USD idea.

Still it feels like a dull market. Or is it just me?

Parisib17:00:14 GMT - 03/29/2016

CS - if they want a weaker dollar all they have to do is shut up about raising rates. Credibility? Zero.

And when you look at the election candidates your can't help but think there is no good news on the horizon.

GVI Forexjohn bland16:59:09 GMT - 03/29/2016

ab- its my opinion that somehow the Fed will win out. That means a weaker USD.

Parisib16:58:45 GMT - 03/29/2016

Empoli - exactly. Stalemate. They're all morons.

Can't wait for the next Clinton Presidency. Hillary will make Yellen look interesting.

ib
I think the Fed just keeps threatening to raise rates and maybe one more actual rate hike. All this charade just to support the $.

PAR16:51:16 GMT - 03/29/2016

Such a speech could be given by a first year economics student . If oil goes up inflation could go up . If oil goes down inflation could go down . Oil can go up or down .

A Martini please . Nothing new in this event .

Parisib16:50:26 GMT - 03/29/2016

John - this is slightly bizarre though. They plan to keep raising rates (or so they say) but they want the USD weaker.... not an entirely consistent plan. Do they ditch the hikes? I doubt it. I think we get a couple more.

PAR16:42:13 GMT - 03/29/2016

It is always the fault of China and the rest of the world . The FED is always right .

GVI Forexjohn bland16:41:47 GMT - 03/29/2016

10-yr bond yields lower and S&P up on dovish Yellen comments. WTI up as well.

GVI Forexjohn bland16:31:59 GMT - 03/29/2016

IB I agree with you vis-a-vis USD. Fed wants it weaker

GVI Forexjohn bland16:30:31 GMT - 03/29/2016

Headwinds like foreign activity and strong USD likely to fade.

Parisib16:30:00 GMT - 03/29/2016

She's telling you the FED sees no problem with a lower USD. Maybe they see it as stimulatory.... they don't have a whole let else that is.

GVI Forexjohn bland16:28:48 GMT - 03/29/2016

Yellen: only gradual increases in Fed Funds rates likely to be warranted in coming years

nh 15:58 these are professional, independent western journalists who otherwise would sneer at North Korea's 99.9% leader's approval polls ya ?
-
I suspect Yellen will try her best not to send the herd that clings to her yak for "guidance" in one or another direction , i.e. try not to set off a trend.

londonred15:59:43 GMT - 03/29/2016

options mkt looking at this as a dud, daily euro about 20 pips while yen barely 25 pips for an end of day straddle. thats pretty much how much they should be on a non event day, so mkt not looking for a great deal. certainly worth a bite at those prices.
euro triangle 11278/11106 should hold unless yellen pushes out the boat. there has been some talk that she could set the grounds for a june move today, otherwise that triangle should hold.

Livingstonnh15:58:52 GMT - 03/29/2016

They have replaced the "please hold applause until the conclusion of the speech" placards with "please refrain from snickering"

GVI Forexjohn bland15:53:44 GMT - 03/29/2016

"Financial Tsunami Watch"
Notice not a "Warning" or "Forecast"

Yellen speech in just under 30 mins. Her prepared text might be released in advance.

GVI Forexjohn bland15:48:11 GMT - 03/29/2016

JP- yes they will be pre-approved. Usually by the people hosting the event. I imagine they are briefed on what they can approve. Usually they are soft-ball questions.

MtlJP15:45:24 GMT - 03/29/2016

I just noted that Yellen is supposed to have a Q&A session after her yak

Will these be pre-approved questions from pre-vetted questioners ?

PAR14:17:50 GMT - 03/29/2016

Hawkish Yellen will sent dollar higher and crude lower .

Catch 22 .

Yellen wants lower dollar and higher crude .

Joesixpack wants lower crude and doesnt care about the dollar.

Complicated.

GVI Forexjohn bland14:11:39 GMT - 03/29/2016

I doubt Yellen will change her views based on this one number. I think the downward revisions in GDP estimates will have sobered her up.

PAR14:05:16 GMT - 03/29/2016

This may make Yellen sound more hawkish . An april hike back on the table ? Buy the dollar .

U.S. Core PCE Deflator is due in under an hour. The Fed targets this inflation number, and yes , imho, it is designed to understate inflation. I feel it does not even closely represent my personal "market basket" of that of most others.

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