My notes:
- I pulled out the two Vanguard 500 indexes, and put them up top as references.
- All returns are positive.
- A/F is American Funds.
- If there are different fund classes, these are "A" shares.
- I labeled any Moderate Allocation funds (contain Stocks & Bonds) that I recognized.
- Remember that these are % cumulative returns for the last 5 years.

5 years misses about the first 19 months of the 2000 - 2002 bear market, but gets all to date of the following bull.

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)

5 years misses about the first 19 months of the 2000 - 2002 bear market, but gets all to date of the following bull.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeyd

This is why the 5yr numbers are unreliable when it comes to measuring long-term returns. 10 year, or better yet 15 year returns, are a lot better for my use.

I just thought it meant that I should have looked in the paper ~19 months sooner, so I could have gotten all of the bear market into the 5 year window. In this cumulative return view, that would have shown how bad each fund cratered, and how long it took to climb back up to the surface. I think we would see some real differences there. Can still see some of the climb-out effect. For someone who has 20 years till they ER, it may not matter much. For those that are in distribution phase when a bear market comes along, it can matter a lot.

A couple years ago, the 5 year annualized average returns stats looked pretty bad on some funds. Funds that were dividend-oriented did better.

Looking out to 10 and 15 year annualized average returns can smooth over the bad show areas. Of course, if one decided that long-term performance is really what matters, then the choice of only 10 or 15 years is arbitrary. 50 years should be even better. 70 years, even better! That's it, let's look at returns for only funds in existance 70 or more years! There is at least one fund on that list that has that kind of record.

__________________
-- Telly, the D-I-Y guy --
Two fools dancing on the hands of time

Could be interesting to compare to list of those that were the 30 largest at the start of the five year period.

My guess would be that most of the same funds would be there, though the order would have changes. Like Magellan would be higher up the list! Poor Magellan... I wonder if the remaining Magellan-holders are primarily deceased people.

__________________
-- Telly, the D-I-Y guy --
Two fools dancing on the hands of time

Looking out to 10 and 15 year annualized average returns can smooth over the bad show areas. Of course, if one decided that long-term performance is really what matters, then the choice of only 10 or 15 years is arbitrary. 50 years should be even better. 70 years, even better! That's it, let's look at returns for only funds in existance 70 or more years! There is at least one fund on that list that has that kind of record.

Investment Company of America has been around since 1934..........

__________________

__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)

Latest Threads

Social Knowledge Community

About Us

This community was started in 2002 as an alternative to a then fee only Motley Fool. The focus of the discussions is on topics related to early retirement and financial independence. The community is moderated to ensure a pleasant experience for our members.