Why the structure of Westbrook’s deal is important

Think about this for one second: Oklahoma City is guaranteed — barring an unforeseen trade — to at least have the pleasure of watching Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook through 2016. Durant signed a maximum deal with no opt-out clause that is in effect this season and Westbrook did the same today with no opt-out that takes effect next season keeping him in OKC through 2017.

That’s at least five years to make a legitimate title run, if not two, if not three, if not five. Put two top 15 players on the same team and you’re going to have something in place that’s able to contend.

But what separates a good team that can contend to a great team that can win is depth. Having those supplementary pieces around Option A and Option B. Right now, the Thunder have exactly that. James Harden is about as good a third wheel as there is in the league. Serge Ibaka is a blossoming power forward that knows his role and handles himself well. Kendrick Perkins, Nick Collison, Daequan Cook, Thabo Sefolosha — all ideal role players that do their jobs.

The issue all along with Westbrook’s deal was figuring out how to make sure you keep a 23-year-old superstar while also maintaining the flexibility to keep the other pieces. It was never of question if the Thunder should keep Westbrook, because that’s stupid. OF COURSE you do. That’s a no-brainer. Extending Westbrook wasn’t a tough decision. Despite all the nasty media criticism and fans barking about his decision-making, you keep a player like Russell Westbrook on your roster and you pay the number he wants to do it.

But in order for everything to work just right, the right number was important. Because while the Thunder would be a fine team with just Durant, Westbrook and some other veteran parts mixed in, they’re a title contender because of what’s already in place. And it needs to remain that way. That’s the organization’s main desire, the goal in mind.

So with Westbrook’s max extension — $80 million over five years — that puts some $175 million tied up over the next six between KD and Westbrook. For a small market franchise like Oklahoma City, that’s quite the commitment. And one that’s making Thunder fans a bit uneasy about the future of Harden and Ibaka.

But here’s the thing: Westbrook, whether he intentionally did it or not, pulled a very unselfish move. He potentially left money on the table and gave the Thunder much needed financial flexibility. Reports are that Westbrook did not push for the so-called “supermax” which allows a player to be designated a five-year, $94 million extension, if he meets certain criteria. Otherwise known as the “Rose Rule.” Durant already retroactively got that bump, which will pay him some $15 million more over the life of his deal and actually put the Thunder over the cap this season. That deal pays a player up to 30 percent of the team’s entire salary cap, not the standard 25 percent max deal. All Westbrook would’ve had to do this season to qualify is make another All-NBA team, which he’s likely to do (or win an MVP, which is unlikely).

Westbrook though, took the 25 percent max and locked in to that, according to multiple reports. Which is the difference of around $3 million a year. Which is very important. That little bit of cash could be the difference in the Thunder keeping Ibaka (or Harden) and not.

Part of that will depend on extraneous circumstances. Like if the Thunder remain profitable, where the luxury tax line fits and whether or not Clay Bennett might be willing to pay the more punitive penalty that kicks in two years from now. Even so, with $48 million committed to Westbrook, Durant, Perk, Collison and Thabo, it’s going to be dicey. Because that leaves Harden, Ibaka and Eric Maynor — three players the Thunder want to keep — left to be locked up with about $22 million, assuming the tax line is at $70 million, which it is right now. (Projections have it at possibly $76 million in 2014, when the more punitive tax kicks in, but that depends on league revenue growth. And if you’re wondering, the NBA’s salary cap is “soft” meaning you can break over it for different reasons, one being re-signing your own players.)

So let’s play with numbers: Harden, Ibaka and Maynor are eligible for extensions this summer, which would count against the cap starting in 2013-14 (when the next harsher tax starts). With $48 million for sure committed, let’s assume Harden gets a four-year, $48 million deal, about $12 million per. That puts OKC at $60 million. Ibaka could be tougher to measure. Some see him as a $10 million per year guy. I’m not sure yet. I could see Oklahoma City letting Ibaka go to restricted free agency to let the market determine that number. But if he’s at four years, $40 million, that would put OKC near the tax line with just seven guys under contract. Which almost assures the Thunder would break into the tax.

(An aside: You know what continues to be brilliant though? Nick Collison’s frontloaded contract. He’s only going to be making $2.5 million the last two years of his deal. If his contract had been standard, we might not be having this discussion at all.)

Now, Clay Bennett and company might totally be willing to pay the luxury tax in order to field a championship level team with all those pieces together for the long-term. But I wouldn’t bet on that.

The reality is with any team, that you can’t count on keeping everything. It’s about determining the most important parts, the guys vital to your championship chances and retaining those. Whether that’s Harden, Maynor, Ibaka or whatever, that’s the objective.

So you can see why even Westbrook leaving $2 or $3 million on the table could be crucial. The good news for Thunder fans is that this whole thing is in the hands of Sam Presti and his front office, who can absolutely know what they’re doing. There may be a tough choice between Harden and Ibaka at some point — which almost definitely would be Harden — but with Westbrook’s deal, I think it’s a certainty one of the two can be afforded. And maybe both.

Skip on FT this morning hates the signing and again says we had Chris Paul "on a silver platter" if we traded Russ for him. I'm sorry, CP3 is a great player and I'm grateful for what he did for OKC during his first two years here but I've moved on...Russell is the better player for this team, gives us a dynamic that can be matched by only Derrick Rose, you simply don't trade a guy with Westbrook's talent, size, and age. He's yet to even touch his prime (will be there in about two years) and there's no doubt by the looks of this contract, he knows he's not better than Rose and he wants to be here, he wants to play IN OKC and WITH Kevin Durant. I listened to his phone convo on the Animal yesterday and again, he showed no signs of this "monster" ego. He's a good kid, he's a fierce competitor, he's been very durable considering his very high USG and shows no signs of slowing down.

I know earlier in the year I entertained the idea of trading him for Rondo, then I saw what he DID to Rondo. Rondo of course has better PG skills but Russell just smokes him as a BB player, not even close....I would trade him for maybe two people on the planet, Rose and Howard. But personally, I'd rather not trade him at all and I'm glad we didn't.

It was unselfish on Russels part. he like the organization wants to win. I believe Harden and Ibaka do as well and will make small sacrifices in salary to do so with the Thunder, which is proving to be a great organization to play for.

Russ is averaging 1.4 less assists on baskets at the rim this year. At 1.8, it's the lowest of his career. He's .7 lower from 16-23 feet . That's where the bulk of his assists average is lacking. He's back up in 8 range if those drops aren't there. There's no evidence that KD's passing is significantly affecting it Russ' totals, either. KD's assist gain has been marginal across all shots.

The drop at the rim is the biggest and most interesting to me. For obvious reasons, assisting shots at the rim typically make up the bulk of PG assists. Among point guards averaging 30+ minutes, Russ is 17th in that category, only ahead of Jennings, Collison, Evans, Holiday, Knight and Ridnour. The league average is 2.4.

I just think height of starters is one reason for our poor defense rebound.KD is the tallest in starters and he is not always in paint to protect our rebs.Last game wizzard big men didnt get offense rebs directly but tip the ball out and made their small players to get them.

Danny Ainge makes me appreciate Presti so much more. First, most of his moves have been tuurrrrible. Second, why would you publically state that you would break up the team?!? Even if you're going to do it shouldn't go public. What is the existing team supposed to think?!? He's a complete idiot.

I never thought I would write this, but Thabo needs to be getting more minutes, he is playing fantastic defense and he is shooting well. He is only getting 20 minutes per game, and yet he is playing better than he did last year.

That feels beneath what I've come expect from that site. Instead of real insight and analysis that tells us something interesting as far as Xs and Os we get vague stuff like "until Westbrook develops that Chris Paul-like feel for managing a game" with no mention of what the other players were doing or not doing. They even acknowledge that the lack of leadership in the second unit is what really cost us the initial lead we had, but then they don't follow that thread to tell us anything worthwhile

There has been a lot of talk about how are defense isn't as good as last year, but that is just plain wrong. Every one of our starters except Perkins is holding opponents to a lower shooting % than last year, the problem is rebounding. Via 82games.com, Perkins, Collison at the 5, and Mohammed, are the ones killing us on the boards. Last year, Perkins was out rebounding his man, but this year he isn't. Wen't we one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the league a couple of years ago? Maybe this will change as the season progresses, but Perkins needs to figure out how to fight people for rebounds, he is our starting center but he is only averaging 5.9 rebounds in 26 minutes. That is the worst rate in his career with at least 24 minutes averaged. Maybe we are selling out to protect against the fast break and sacrificing rebounds, regardless it needs to be fixed.

It may be wishful thinking to expect Harden to be signed for $12 million or less per year. There are teams who probably should offer him the max. But I guess the Thunder can't do that now, though I haven't dug for the rules to be sure

Okc doesnt have to buy there talent. I'm just saying if everyone is worried about the money there's your answer. By the way I'm totally joking I have faith Sam and the front office can get the deals done. With that being said if we do have to part ways with one I won't cry if it's ibaka.

Has everyone realized that if we are able to sign Harden and Ibaka to 4 year deals this summer then KD, Westbrook, Harden, and Ibaka's contracts would all end at the same time! How many could we re-sign at that point?!?

I am thinking that 12 and 8 for harden and Ibaka respectively is a bit high. Lets assume Ibaka does NOT have a major break out season - in other words plays more or less as he has thus far this season. do you think a 6 or 6.5/year is acceptable?

And harden, though I totally think he will be worth the 12, do you think he would take an offer of 9 or 10/year?

That would give us the flex wouldn't it? Maybe that is wishful thinking from a fan, when reality is these guys need to get the $$$ while they can whether OKC pays them or someone else....

Any insight into that scenario from those who know the numbers better?

Aren't our owners loaded? If we go to maybe $80 million and we are in championship contention every year, isn't that reason enough to pay the luxury tax? I think keeping our core 4 would keep us in championship contention for the next 6 years at least.

Can we please put talks of signing or trading players to rest now? at least until we get close to the deadline... i was getting tired of all the how to retain westbrook talk, and am not looking forward to spending the next 12 months having the same conversation about harden ibaka and maynor...

I wonder what the split on the money is, especially if he qualifies for 30% because then they might be able to frontload more of the contract into next year and have more room for the other extensions.

I think if it comes to losing serge or harden, and KD believes he needs both to win a championship, there is every chance KD would in fact take the 25%. Why? Because it makes sense basketball wise (pretty much the only thing KD cares about) but also $ wise as the endorsement opportunities that would come from winning say, 2 titles, would easily compensate for that 3million a year lost from his salary.

I am giddy at the prospect of keeping all our guys together. They are just gonna get better and better and better. These guys all love each other and want to stay together. I honestly think we'll see them all do what Russ did-- sacrifice a million or so a year for the greater good. If Harden, Maynor, Serge, etc, all agree to a contract that is a million or so less than what they could really get, it all adds up big time.

OT: Anyone here subscribe to Synergy? It's too early to draw much from this season (such as a conclusion RW is the best ISO defender ever), but I am curious about Westbrook's efficiency in post-up situations. The first few games he was terrible working from the post, mostly shooting fadeaways or getting called for charges. But I want to see his production over the last six or seven games. He seems to be passing out of double teams now (like the Sefolosha three against BOS) and getting better shots without running over his defender (as he did repeatedly against Wall).

Great move by the Thunder. No matter how much we complain about how Russell plays, he's still a top 5 point guard and maybe top 10-12 player in the NBA. To get him locked up with Durant for the next 4 years is a fantastic move! These two players can keep growing together and with Harden locked up soon (hopefully) we've got our three stars and we can continue to fill in around them when people inevitably move on or we cut ties with them. Great job by Sam Presti!

it is still going to be hard to keep everyone and not pay the tax, even if the tax level increases to the estimated 76 million, it might come down to keep ibaka and amnesty perk, or keep perk and let ibaka walk. If we keep our first round picks we need to pay those salaries as well. I personally think we are going to be ok going slightly into the tax range as long as we are winning.

Retaining cook will be tough as well, him and nazr each are 3 million this year, nazr may retire and then we bring in pleiss or another rookie deal center and that saves us some money, but unless cook will play for less that 3 million might be better spent on a rookie deal player that is 1 million.

"(An aside: You know what continues to be brilliant though? Nick Collison’s frontloaded contract. He’s only going to be making $2.5 million the last two years of his deal. If his contract had been standard, we might not be having this discussion at all.)"

Key to all of this. Glad this was done.

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