Forté Capital’s Selected Statistics: Risk of Recession in the United States

Economic and Market Data

RISK OF RECESSION

The probability that the United States economy will fall into a recession in six months fell from 9% in December to 8% in January. The baseline at which a recession is expected to occur is normally 60%. This is the seventh decline in the past eight months and puts the probability of recession at the lowest level since 2015. Rising stock prices, a decline in initial claims, and an increase in housing permits contributed to this trend.

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecaptial.com, send a message to [email protected], or call 866-586-8100.

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