The digital economy bill could have a big impact on all areas of the media

The murmuring in parliament is that the digital economy bill will get its second reading on Tuesday 6 April – the day that Gordon Brown is expected to hop into a car and head over to the palace to ask for the dissolution of parliament. The timing is precise: by getting its second reading in the Commons, the bill becomes eligible to go into the "wash-up" – the dirty process by which bills that have run out of proper parliamentary time are hurried through to royal assent via a series of backroom deals.

But what shape is the digital economy bill in now, compared to what we were offered by the Digital Britain report (DBR) last June, and the first reading of the digital economy bill (DEB) in the House of Lords last December?

Let's examine what we were promised, and what we seem to have. This is not easy: the bill tends to add bits to other existing acts, such as the Communications Act of 2003 and the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act of 1988. You can see an explanation of its contents at the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills's DEB page.

Ofcom

Extension of role to include reporting on communications infrastructure and media content, and power to determine who gets access to which airwaves. The Conservatives aren't keen on Ofcom, whose powers they want to curtail. So far mostly untouched by amendments.

Status:Extension may survive wash-up, but probably not a Tory administration.

Minimum broadband speed of 2Mbps

Doesn't actually require legislation. (Neither "broadband" nor "megabit" appears in the bill.) This becomes a new Ofcom responsibility, watched over by the secretary of state for business.

£6 annual levy on fixed phone lines

Shifted in the Queen's speech to the finance bill, because it requires new tax measures.

Status: Will find out in the budget on Wednesday.

Regional funding for local news consortiums, funded from licence fee

Digital Britain said that £130m annually now spent helping people shift to digital TV could fund ITV regional news programmes. Ofcom would appoint "providers of regional or local news". The Conservatives oppose it; it would probably get deleted in the horse-trading of the wash-up.

Status: Dead.

Analogue radio switchoff by 2015; re-organisation and merger of some local DAB ensembles

Still in the bill, but now at the discretion of the secretary of state. A new clause (97A) would be added to the Broadcasting Act 1990.

Status: Alive.

Tax breaks for video games industry

Suggested in the DBR, not in the DEB, possibly in the budget next week.

Status: Missing in action.

Video games age classifications

The DBR said that rules should make it illegal to sell a video game rated 12 or over to an underage buyer, and take away games classification from the British Board of Film Classification, and give it to the Video Standards Council. That part of the DEB has sailed through virtually untouched.

Status: Alive.

Internet domain names

UK government could intervene directly in the use and registration of .uk internet sites, currently the responsibility of the independent Nominet, to prevent sites being registered for "illicit use". After commissioning a report from Ofcom, the secretary of state could take away registration powers and give it to a different organisation.

Status: Alive.

Channel 4

Specifically told to support "people with creative talent", particularly through film, and to produce "high-quality digital content". Failure to do so could lead to sanctions from Ofcom, including a fine.

Status: Alive.

Electromagnetic spectrum

More Ofcom powers – this time to let it enforce licences and impose fines on operators who misuse or abandon spectrum, and set new pricing systems on previously auctioned spectrum.

Status: Unclear if a Tory government would let this continue; but alive.

Adding PLR (Public Lending Right) to e-books and spoken books

Every time a library lends an audio book or e-book the copyright holder gets a small payment. Sailing through: the text is essentially untouched from its introductory form.

Status: Alive.

Reducing online piracy and copyright theft

By far the most contentious part of the bill and the source of huge popular opposition. The DEB adds a clause to the Communications Act 2003 that says that ISPs must provide "copyright owners" (defined murkily in the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act's section 173 with details (though not identities) of copyright infringers. Quite possibly, anyone could claim to be a copyright owner.

As altered, the bill now allows for ISPs to be required to block access to sites that allow "substantial" infringement. One of Lord Mandelson's principal targets here – urged on by the BPI and Federation Against Copyright Theft and Federation Against Software Theft – is "cyberlocker" sites that let people store files, or move them between two people easily, which, lobbyists argue, allows widespread copyright infringement. The argument then becomes how you tell whether a cyberlocker is being used for substantial infringement. But as they don't publicise their contents (they are like safe deposit boxes for the web), how can it be determined whether they are substantially infringing?

One site that would immediately be trapped by this provision is Wikileaks – which exists solely to republish leaked, and hence copyrighted, work. Would a Trafigura-like company in the future use the DEB to shut off UK access to the site if something embarrassing appeared there?

The bill allows for the "temporary suspension" of internet connections for those deemed to have allowed multiple copyright infringement after warnings from their ISPs (who are required to maintain "copyright infringement reports" on users, anonymously). Hotels and businesses that offer free or paid-for Wi-Fi have expressed serious concerns that they would have to shut such services down.

The record industry is happy with the proposals, but many citizens aren't: in two days more than 10,000 people had contacted their MP via the 38 Degrees site to express concern and demand proper debate of the proposals.

A "proper" debate would take so long it would kill the bill – although Harriet Harman, the leader of the Commons, did suggest in a tweet that it will get "debate". The Tories, however, seem to be in favour.

Status: Alive, and likely to survive wash-up.

Orphan works; extension/licensing of copyright/performers' rights

"Orphan works" are copyrighted works whose owner is unknown; this would create a means to license them. The extension of copyright/performers' rights proved controversial in the Lords.

Status: Orphan works may survive the wash-up; copyright extension is less clear.

So will it pass? The campaign against the anti-piracy provisions may rouse MPs to try to get the bill examined properly in the Commons on its second reading. But with an election looming, and many MPs preparing to leave the House for the last time, some may feel it's not worth fighting over – especially as a potential Tory administration may rip it up anyway. It's going to be a very close-run thing.