Amory Lovins is trying to push his Reinventing Fire plan to eliminate oil and coal usage by 2050 in the USA. It is interesting to notice how little has changed from his 1976 plan and the new plan. Basically he has dropped coal and is more in favor of natural gas. All the rest that mostly did not happen is the same. Some of the stuff that did happen has not had the result that Amory expected. Cogeneration is at 8% of total energy in the US now. Microgeneration or small scale natural gas and diesel is apparently at 18%. Yet overall energy usage is up.

Amory also pushes carbon fiber for cars (in his talks) as a way to lighten up all cars and increase efficiency. The experts in carbon fiber only expect the usage of carbon fibers in cars to increase to 8000 tons per year by 2018. This would be enough for 40,000 cars/year using 200 kg of carbon fiber (less than 1% of all cars). Cars have to compete with airplanes, wind turbines, natural gas tanks and golf clubs for carbon fiber. Scaling the supply chain is a bitch.

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