Wednesday, November 9, 2016

An Extended November Weather Honeymoon - Dry Into Monday

60 F. high in the Twin Cities Wednesday.

43 F. average high on November 9.

61 F. high on November 9, 2015.

November 10, 1999:
Late season hail falls in Eden Prairie. Pea size hail (0.25 inch. in
diameter) up to one foot deep collected near storm drains near Hennepin
Technical College and Hwy 212. Pea size hail about 4 inches deep was
also reported on grass near Hwy 5 and Mitchell Rd. The hail and
torrential rains forced drivers off the road in Bloomington.November 10, 1998:
A potent storm nicknamed a 'land hurricane' sets a new all-time record
low pressure for Minnesota around noon at Albert Lea and Austin as it
passes overhead. The automated weather observing equipment at both
airports measured a barometric pressure of 28.43 inches, which broke the
previous record of 28.55 inches set on 11 January 1975 in Duluth. The
new record for the Twin Cities was set with a reading of 28.55 inches.
The previous record was 28.77 inches, set on April 13th of 1964. 10
inches of snow fell at Madison, MN and St. Cloud State University had a
wind gust to 64 mph.November 10, 1975: The Edmund Fitzgerald sinks off Whitefish Bay, causing 29 fatalities.November 10, 1913: A severe windstorm occurs on Lake Superior. Three ships were lost. Winds were clocked at 62 mph at Duluth.

Another Welcome Dose of Lukewarm Sunshine

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" said Yogi Berra.

Leave
it to the pundits, pollsters and talking heads to make the
meteorologists look good. I'm mourning a sudden lack of political ads on
TV, but a booster shot of vitamin D from the sun is helping my mood
swings.

New research confirms that the number of hours of sunshine
during a given day has more impact on our mental health than rain, wind
or even pollution. Then again we've known about SAD (seasonal affective
disorder) for some time and light therapy and melatonin can help.

An
article on the weather blog caught my eye: falling back 1 hour for
daylight saving time can speed up symptoms of depression. "The shift to
standard time essentially steals an hour of daylight from the evening,
when most of us are awake, and tacks it on to the early morning hours,
when many of us are not."

I want that hour of sunshine back.

Blue sky spills into the weekend; 60-65F today (20 degrees above average) before cooling off Friday. A shower pops up Tuesday with heavier rain late next week.

A series of Pacific storms will pull increasingly cold air south. Jackets and slush by Thanksgiving?Sunshine Matters A Lot to Mental Health; Temperature, Pollution, Rain Not So Much. Almost time to put your therapist on speed-dial. Here's a fascinating nugget, courtesy of EurekAlert! Science News: "...That's
one of the surprising pieces of our research," said Mark Beecher,
clinical professor and licensed psychologist in BYU Counseling and
Psychological Services. "On a rainy day, or a more polluted day, people
assume that they'd have more distress. But we didn't see that. We looked
at solar irradiance, or the amount of sunlight that actually hits the
ground. We tried to take into account cloudy days, rainy days, pollution
. . . but they washed out. The one thing that was really significant
was the amount of time between sunrise and sunset."Therapists should be
aware that winter months will be a time of high demand for their
services. With fewer sun time hours, clients will be particularly
vulnerable to emotional distress. Preventative measures should be
implemented on a case-by-case basis...."Does The Switch to Daylight Saving Time Increase Risk of Depression? Here's an excerpt of an interesting article focusing on new studies, courtesy of The Washington Post: "...One
possible explanation is that the sudden advancement of sunset from 6
p.m. to 5 p.m . . . which in Denmark marks the coming of a long period
of very short days, has a negative psychological impact on individuals
prone to depression, and pushes them over the threshold to develop
manifest depression,” the authors write. We know, for instance, that
long days and ample sunshine are protective against depressive symptoms. The
shift to standard time essentially steals an hour of daylight from the
evening, when most of us are awake, and tacks it on to the early morning
hours, when many of us are not. The net effect is that many of us lose
an hour of daylight..."

"Atmospheric Rivers" Soak Pacific Northwest and Western Canada. Discover Magazine
has a good explanation of the meteorology powering persistent streams
of deep moisture impacting the northwestern USA; here's a clip: "During
this past weekend and into Monday of this week, parts of British
Columbia were hosed with copious, flood-inducing precipitation, thanks
to at least two so-called ‘atmospheric rivers’ originating far to the
south and west. You can see them in the animation above, which shows the
amount of precipitable water in the atmosphere. Watch for long, thin
plumes depicted in green, yellow and orange, stretching from near Hawaii
and hitting the Pacific Northwest. Atmospheric rivers contain an almost
unimaginable amount of moisture. A strong one can move water vapor
“roughly equivalent to 7.5–15 times the average flow of liquid water at
the mouth of the Mississippi River, according to NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory..."

Animation credit: "The
amount of precipitable water in the atmosphere over the northern
Pacific is seen in this animation created using data from microwave
observations by polar orbiting satellites. The animation covers the
period between Nov. 5th and 7th, 2016." (Source: Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies.)

Northwest Soaker. NOAA's 7-Day Precipitation Ensemble model prints out somme 5-10" amounts north and west of Seattle over the next week. Click here to check out the latest outlook.

10-Day Snowfall Potential.
Winter has been delayed, but make no mistake: it's still coming. Again,
I've found that the other shoe (boot) often drops around Thanksgiving,
when Mother Nature can wreak the most havoc on travel plans. This is the
GFS snowfall outlook thru November 19, hinting at a few inches of
sloppy snow along the U.S. - Canadian border. Map credit: WeatherBell.

Where's The Cold Air?
This has to change in the coming weeks as long nights spark an eventual
cool-down, but I'm struck by how pervasive the warmth is across North
America - a huge area with temperature anomalies well above average. The
Arctic region is averaging 5-6F warmer than normal for this date.
Graphic: Climate Reanalyzer.

Toasty October Keeps U.S. On Track for 2nd-Hottest Year. Climate Central reports: "The
U.S. is still cruising toward its second-hottest year on record going
back more than 120 years, with every state in the Lower 48, as well as
Alaska, recording well above-average temperatures through October. This
October was the third warmest on record, and 37 states had one of their
five warmest January-October periods in the books, the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration announced on Tuesday.
Those elevated temperatures have exacerbated the drought that has taken
hold in several areas, particularly in the Southeast. The near-record
U.S. heat comes amid a year that will easily be the hottest on record
for the planet as a whole, surpassing 2015. The excess heat trapped by
ever-rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is tipping the
scales in favor of more record heat..."

Hurricane Sandy Was a 260 Year Storm - Here's What That Means.
For the record 2012's Superstorm Sandy wasn't even (technically) a
warm-core hurricane when it struck New Jersey. But the storm was huge,
it carved out an impressive storm surge that hit at astronomical high
tide during a full moon. Here's an excerpt from Yahoo Finance: "... The
total damage to New York City was worth $19 billion and to New Jersey
$29 billion. Now, the big question is: How likely is it that a
Sandy-level storm will happen again in our lifetimes? In the past,
studies have pegged Sandy as anywhere from a 100-year storm to a 1,500
year storm. That means that in any given year there's a 1/100 to 1/1,500
chance of a storm causing Sandy-level flooding. A new paper accepted
for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research
October 21 offers a more precise estimate: Sandy was a 260-year storm,
based on current ocean conditions. That includes tropical cyclones like
Sandy as well as winter storms like northeasters, lead author Philip
Orton, who studies ocean physics at the Stevens Institute of Technology,
told Business Insider..." (Superstorm Sandy file image: NASA).

Flood of Weather Warning Terms Fuels Confusion. Is there a smart way for NOAA to streamline watches, advisories and warnings? USA TODAY reports: "...One
simple reason for the confusion is that both watch and warning start
with the letters "wa," while another is that advisory "doesn't have any
specific connotation," Jacks said. Not only are the three levels
befuddling, there are also too many of them: In all, the weather service
transmits a whopping 122 different watches, warnings and advisories,
all the way from Air Quality Alert to Winter Weather Advisory. Some of
the more obscure ones include Ashfall Warning, Freezing Spray
Advisory and Lakeshore Flood Watch..."

Massive Wedge Tornado That Hit Rome November 6.
This Kansas-size tornado left 2 people dead; the flashes high tension
lines being brought down by winds that may have approached 150 mph. Click here to see the video from MSN.com.

New Weather Satellite Set to "Revolutionize" The U.S. Weather Forecast.
That may be a bit strong, but there's little doubt that GOES-R is
another big step forward, giving us a much more powerful,
high-resolution eye in the sky. Details via Yahoo Finance: "...NASA
is currently preparing the launch pad at Cape Canaveral to send the
first satellite, known as GOES-R, into orbit on November 16 at 4:42 p.m.
ET. According to NOAA, the new weather station will contribute to more
accurate weather forecasts and better predictions of severe storms.
"Without a doubt, GOES-R will revolutionize weather forecasting as we
know it," Stephen Volz, assistant administrator for NOAA's Satellite and
Information Service, told reporters earlier this month. "For weather
forecasters, GOES-R is like going from black and white television to
super-high-definition TV, and for the American public GOES-R will mean
faster, more accurate weather forecasting and warning..." (Artist sketch of GOES-R: Lockheed Martin).

Why Scientists Are So Worried About Sea Level Rise in the Second Half of This Century. The water is rising - that's no a climate model, but based on observations, worldwide. Here's an excerpt at The Washington Post: "...But the new research
just published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
notes that if we stay on a current, high-emissions pathway and do not
achieve the cuts that the Paris agreement seeks to institutionalize,
then we could hit 2 degrees Celsius by 2040 or so. For the planet’s sea
level, this would mean over a half-foot rise averaged around the globe,
in comparison with average sea levels from 1986 to 2005. The sea-level
increase, however, would be far worse in certain places, such as the
U.S. East Coast, where it could be over a foot..."

Photo credit: Andrew Demp, Yale.

Incoming! How NASA and FEMA Would Respond to an Asteroid Threat. That's right - don't sweat the thundershowers! Fox News has an interesting, vaguely terrifying story - here's an excerpt that left me wanting to check my fantasy football stats: "...NASA
and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) came together Oct.
25 to plan a response to such a hypothetical event. In a "tabletop
exercise," a kind of ongoing simulation, the two agencies tested how
they would work together to evaluate the threat, prevent panic and
protect as many people as possible from the deadly collision. "It's not a
matter of if, but when, we will deal with such a situation," Thomas
Zurbuchen, NASA's Science Mission Directorate's new associate administrator, said in a statement..."

A
new forecast by the U.S. Energy Department says the amount of solar
energy produced nationwide is poised to triple between 2014 and 2019.

Nationally, solar installations jumped 45% in the first half of this year compared with the same period in 2015.

Cutting-edge
technology could give solar power an even bigger "wow" factor. Elon
Musk, known for developing electric-powered Tesla cars and pushing for
commercial space travel, sees the potential for solar-powered roof
tiles, such as those made by his company SolarCity, that resemble
conventional shingles.

"I really think it's going
to get to the point where if you get a normal roof it's sort of odd,"
Musk, founder/CEO of Tesla, said during an interview last week on CNBC..."

Photo credit: Apple.

Red Lake Band of Minnesota Plans For All-Solar Electric Generation.
Why? Because it'll help clean up the air AND save them money over the
long haul - there's a significant ROI. Here's more information from The Star Tribune: "The
Red Lake Band of Chippewa in northern Minnesota intends to build enough
solar energy capability on tribal lands over the next several years to
free itself from electricity generated from fossil fuels. And, thanks to
outside investors who can tap a variety of tax credits, depreciation
and deductions, it should cost the tribe very little to eventually
become owners of the solar arrays, power-storage units and related
equipment..." (File photo: Utility Dive).

November's Supermoon Will Be Bigger Than It Has Been Since 1948. The Washington Post has more details on the upcoming "spotlight moon"; here's the intro: "November’s
full moon is special. Not only is it a supermoon — which appears larger
than a “regular” full moon — it will be the closest such moon to Earth
since January 1948. We won’t see the full moon this close again until
Nov. 25, 2034, according to NASA.
In the middle of November, we savor the splendor of a full moon. With
any luck, this awe-inspiring moon will lure people outside to breathe
the crisp air of the autumnal night sky, spark people to hold hands and
spur interest in relishing the heavens..."

Photo credit: "The moon will be larger in the sky than it has been in decades — but not quite this big." (Charlie Riedel/AP)

An Illustrated Guide of the World's Weirdest Panics, From A to Z. No publication could possibly do this story any better than Atlas Obscura: "From Anti-Arcade Initiatives to Zeitoun Maries, we have been freaking out about nonsense for time immemorial..."

Climate Stories. Because weather and climate are flip-sides of the same coin.

Caring for Creation: Community Conversation and Book Release November 15 at Minnehaha Academy.
If you're interested in this topic (and most everyone should be) I hope
you'll consider coming out next Tuesday evening, November 15, to Minnehaha Academy to hear co-author of "Caring for Creation"
Mitch Hescox and me discuss why climate awareness and a push toward
clean energy are essential, and why people of faith should pay
attention: "Minnehaha Academy Welcomes Meteorologist Paul Douglas
and Evangelical Environmental Network Director Mitch Hescox for a
Compelling Climate Change Conversation and Book Release Event. Join us
for this not-to-be-missed community conversation and book release event
about climate change and the Biblical call for Christians to care about
the earth.

In this free evening conversation, you’ll learn:- Why Christians should lead the charge for caring for God’s creation.- How climate change goes beyond politics and affects the health, economy, and stability of future generations.- Tips to help your family and those around you care for the earth..."

Global "Greening" Has Slowed Rise of CO2 in the Atmosphere, Study Finds. Here's an excerpt from a story at The Guardian: "A
global “greening” of the planet has significantly slowed the rise of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the start of the century,
according to new research. More plants have been growing due to higher
CO2 levels in the air and warming temperatures that cut the CO2 emitted
by plants via respiration. The effects led the proportion of annual
carbon emissions remaining in the air to fall from about 50% to 40% in
the last decade. However, this greening is only offsetting a small
amount of the billions of tonnes of CO2 emitted from fossil fuel burning
and other human activities and will not halt dangerous global warming..."The Arctic: A Bellwether of Climate Change.Maryland's Point News has a story that made me do a double-take; here's a clip: "...The
Arctic is a bellwether of climate change,” explained Dr. Walsh. He said
that scientists can use observations from the Arctic to identify trends
and indicate the future of climate change for the rest of the world.
“What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic,” a playful
phrase that Dr. Walsh coined to describe the importance of studying this
region, was substantiated by data correlating temperature changes in
the Arctic to rising sea levels, feedback to greenhouse warming, and
extreme weather around the midlatitude regions on the globe. However,
Dr. Walsh explained, the cause for concern is not based solely on the
global impact, but on the impact local to the Arctic as well. According
to Walsh, 50% of all ice in the Arctic has melted in the past thirty
years due to rising temperatures..."

File photo: Huffington Post.

Pentagon Report: U.S. Military Considers Climate Change a "Threat Multiplier" That Could Exacerbate Terrorism. Here's an excerpt from Newsweek: "A
report released Monday indicates the Department of Defense has
dramatically shifted its views towards climate change, and has already
begun to treat the phenomenon as a significant threat to national
security. Climate change, the Pentagon writes, requires immediate action
on the part of the U.S. Military. The report
is a “roadmap” of the Department’s future needs and actions to
effectively respond to climate change, including anticipating that
climate change may require more frequent military intervention within
the country to respond to natural disasters, as well as internationally
to respond to “extremist ideologies” that may arise in regions where
governments are destabilized due to climate-related stressors..."