South Korea’s fertility rate is so low that the country’s population could go the way of the dinosaurs by 2750, according to a new simulation commissioned by the National Assembly in Seoul.

In that dubious respect, South Korea is on track to outpace its neighbor Japan: according to a widely-circulated report two years ago, Japan will go extinct in about one thousand years. That study drew skepticism from some quarters, but added to the growing urgency about Japan’s demographic future.

But Japan at least starts with more people, with a current population of about 127 million, more than twice that of South Korea.

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Making things worse, South Korea has one of the world’s lowest fertility rates, well below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children. While the statistics vary slightly, the average South Korean woman bears about 1.25 children, compared to Japan’s 1.40 children, according to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. Only Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau and Singapore have lower rates.

According to the South Korea simulation, conducted by the National Assembly Research Service, the country’s current population of about 50 million people will fall to 20 million by the end of the century, assuming a fertility rate of 1.19 children per women.

Busan, the country’s second largest city, will be the first to go extinct, in 2413, according to the simulation, followed by Seoul in 2505.

Needless to say, caveats abound. The simulation’s conclusions, notably, sidestep a number of key unknowns, like the question of North Korea and the future of the Korean peninsula, or any changes in immigration policy in South Korea.