There are two major questions heading into Sunday night’s
telecast of the 89th Academy Awards.

(1) Can La La Land make history by winning the most
statuettes ever in one night? The modern day musical has already
tied the record for most nominations by a single film with 14;
joining All About Eve (1950) and Titanic (1997). Now can it break
the record of 11 wins held by Ben-Hur (1959), Titanic (1997) and
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003)?

(2) What kind of statement will Hollywood make following last
year’s #OscarsSoWhite controversy coupled with this year’s
political turmoil? The Academy has nominated 7 non-white actors
this year in what seems to be a direct answer to the previous two
years’ glaring omissions. My hope is that the public won’t see this
as propaganda because each nominee deserves to be there. Also,
President Trump’s travel ban has prevented several foreign
filmmakers from being able to attend the night’s festivities. Will
the Academy take a defiant stand and award these nominees in
absentee?

In my predictions here, I hope to answer these questions and
if nothing else help you win your office Oscar pool. Please note
that I have seen every film nominated aside from the foreign and
short films. Let’s start with the technical awards and build our
way up to the big one: Best Picture.

Best Visual Effects

Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Who I would vote for: Doctor Strange

I would be very tempted to vote for Kubo due to the
monumental effort it took to craft this stop motion masterpiece but
ultimately Doctor Strange wins out. The psychedelic M.C. Escher
inspired action sequences are too incredible to deny.

Who will win: The Jungle Book

This entire film is practically filmed with a little boy in
front of a green screen and you can’t even tell. This technical
achievement also led to $1 billion in worldwide ticket sales. This
is the category where the Academy rewards the blockbuster.

Upon walking out of the theater after seeing Deepwater
Horizon the first thing I said was, “Wow, that’s going to win
for Best Sound.” Seeing it in an IMAX Theater certainly enhanced
the experience but the special attention to detail of every little
pop and ping was extraordinary.

Who will win: Hacksaw Ridge

This could go to Arrival or La La Land but I
believe this will be Hacksaw Ridge’s consolation prize
after losing in every other category it’s nominated for. The sound
effects during the battle sequences put you right in the
fight.

Best Sound Mixing

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

13 Hours

Who I would vote for: La La Land

In the same vein as 2012’s Les Miserables, La La
Land captures the majority of its’ musical performances live
instead of dubbing in post-production. Watch Emma Stone’s
performance in the audition scene and tell me that would be better
if done in post. Nope, you can’t.

Who will win: La La Land

For the same reason as stated above. The live sound recording
adds to the realism of the film. No other film comes close in this
category.

It’s the climax of the film and easily the most affecting
scene. It’s the moment where Emma Stone wins her Oscar. La La
Land has to win for Best Song since it has at least 5 original
songs that could have been nominated. In my opinion, this one is
the most deserving.

Who will win: La La Land – “City of Stars”

This song has been winning at every previous award ceremony.
It is the spine of the story being performed throughout the entire
film and it’s probably the one you’re humming when walking out of
the theater.

Best Original Score

Jackie

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Passengers

Who I would vote for: La La Land

Are you sensing a pattern here? Justin Hurwitz has created a
score that is timeless. Modern day musicals written directly for
the screen just aren’t made in this day and age. It’s an
astonishing accomplishment.

Who will win: La La Land

In any other year the scores for Jackie or
Moonlight would be shoo-ins to win. They just have the
misfortune of being released in the same year as the musical that
reinvigorated its’ genre.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

A Man Called Ove

Star Trek Beyond

Suicide Squad

Who I would vote for: Suicide Squad

Two words: Killer Croc. His makeup work alone deserves the
statuette. Then you add in the iconic images of Harley Quinn and
The Joker. This superhero movie may have been a flop with the
critics but they can’t take anything away from its makeup
department.

Who will win: Star Trek Beyond

It was a better reviewed film than Suicide Squad so I
see Hollywood voting its’ way instead. Jaylah’s makeup is
fantastic. I had no idea it was the same actress from The
Kingsman until well after seeing the film. Make it so,
Academy.

This is a toss-up between La La Land and
Jackie. The costumers on Jackie captured the
former First Lady’s style perfectly but La La Land’s use
of color ultimately does it for me. I keep thinking of the women’s
dresses during “Someone in the Crowd” and how perfectly they work
within the scene.

Who will win: La La Land

Mary Zophres is a well-respected costumer and she will finally
get her trophy. Through the costumes you see Emma Stone’s Mia
transform from a nobody to a star and let’s not forget that awesome
80’s ensemble Ryan Gosling gets to wear during the pool party
scene.

Best Production Design

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hail, Caesar!

La La Land

Passengers

Who I would vote for: La La Land

Arrival is a close second but the look and feel of
La La Land is one of its’ many strong attributes. From the
character’s respective apartments to the clubs to the fantasy
sequences, the production design team nailed it to
perfection.

Who will win: La La Land

As I just said, the look and feel of La La Land is
second to none. The design of the epilogue scene is enough to bring
the Oscar home. The production design sucks you into this world of
dreamers and makes you want to stay forever.

Best Film Editing

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Moonlight

Who I would vote for: Arrival

Without giving away any spoilers I will say that
Arrival is so wonderfully crafted that the twist in the
story truly blew me away. The key to this stunning story is in the
editing. If you haven’t seen it, watch it and you’ll understand
what I’m saying. It’s magnificent.

Who will win: La La Land

The pacing of this film is flawless and that’s why it will win
for editing. The aforementioned epilogue scene is the prime
example. Whatever film wins Best Editing typically wins Best
Picture. You do the math.

Best Cinematography

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

Who I would vote for: La La Land

No other film has such daring camera choreography. The opening
song and dance is done in one continuous uncut take and is a master
class in how to open a film musical. And it’s not the only scene in
the film done this way.

Who will win: La La Land

I could just repeat what I just wrote but I will add that the
look of the film pays perfect homage to some classic films of the
past such as An American in Paris and The Umbrellas of
Cherbourg. If you’re not a film historian you might not pick
up on that but believe me, the Academy will.

For the following categories I will just pick who I think will
win based off of other award ceremonies and some enlightened
reading. Unlike all the other categories, I have not seen the
majority of these films but will try to help you win your office
Oscar pool nonetheless. It’s usually a safe bet to pick the
socially and politically relevant films.

Best Foreign Language Film: The Salesman – The film’s
director (from Iran) has decided not to attend the ceremony as a
protest against President Trump’s travel ban. The ever-so liberal
Hollywood establishment will likely reward his decision with a
statuette. If not, look for Toni Erdmann to win.

Best Live Action Short: Ennemis Interieurs – Algerian
terrorism reaches France. A timely subject that is sure to garner
votes. Silent Nights could sneak in, as well, with its
themes involving a refugee in an interracial love affair.

Best Documentary Feature: 13th – Ava DuVernay’s
exploration of the U.S. prison system and racial inequality will
narrowly beat out O.J.: Made in America largely due to
O.J.’s 5-part, 7 hour and 47 minute run time. How many
Academy members have the time to watch that? No matter how riveting
it may be.

Best Documentary Short: Joe’s Violin – A Holocaust
survivor affects the life of a young girl equals Oscar bait. Couple
that with the fact that 2 other nominated shorts about the crisis
in Syria will likely cancel each other out.

Best Animated Short: Piper – I have actually seen
this one as it played before Moana in the theaters. The
Academy loves Disney shorts especially those by Pixar. Write this
one in with pen not pencil.

Now on to the biggest awards of the
evening:

Best Animated Feature

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

Who I would vote for: Moana

I love Kubo but Moana’s songs and pacing win
the day. It joins the pantheon of instant classic Disney animated
musicals. Sure the theme of “follow your heart” is a little
overdone but the filmmakers found a way to make it fresh while
diving into a previously unexplored culture.

Who will win: Zootopia

It has cleaned up at every previous awards ceremony other than
the BAFTAs (who gave it to Kubo). This clever parable
about defeating fear mongers is exactly the type of film the
Academy loves to make a statement with. Zootopia is for
kids and adults alike while also conveying a social message.

Again, no spoilers. The way this story comes together is
seamless and breathtaking. The fact that this film was based on a
short story and expanded to a feature length film is an impressive
feat.

Who will win: Moonlight

This, to me, is somewhat of a political statement made by the
Academy. I, personally, was a little bored with this film as I felt
the pacing was very slow. But I cannot deny the power of the story
of a young black man struggling with his sexual identity within a
culture that has historically ostracized homosexuals. That
important message is not lost on me and it won’t be lost on the
Academy voters.

Best Original Screenplay

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

20th Century Women

Who I would vote for: Hell or High Water

This script is a wonderful throwback to the westerns of old
while still existing in the timeframe of today. The social
commentary on what the banks are doing to honest hardworking
Americans is evident from the first frame of the film. And no other
film had more memorable one-liners like “So, what dontcha’ want”
and “lord of the plains”.

Who will win: Manchester by the Sea

Just like Hacksaw Ridge in the Sound Editing category
I believe this will be a consolation prize as Manchester’s
only win of the night. I wasn’t as impressed as other critics with
the story. The characters don’t grow much but maybe that’s the
point. The script does explore grief like I’ve never seen on screen
before and perhaps that’s why it will win.

Williams is a close second but just doesn’t have enough screen
time to catch Davis’s gut-wrenching performance. As the matriarch
who makes countless sacrifices for her family, Davis explodes
through the screen and claims the throne as “best snot crier” in
the history of cinema.

Who will win: Viola Davis

She’s long deserved this award. She held her own with Streep
and Adams in Doubt. She easily had the best performance in
The Help and had to sit by and watch Octavia Spencer take
home the gold. Not this time. This one is a sure thing; another one
you can bet the house on.

I would vote for Ben Foster in Hell or High Water if
he were nominated but unfortunately he’s not. Michael Shannon is
also one of my favorite actors working today but I have to go with
Patel. When he finally comes on screen after 30 minutes or so of
Lion, he carries the movie the rest of way. No other
performance is as beautiful and affecting than his.

Who will win: Mahershala Ali

Here is where the Academy makes its biggest political
statement by rewarding an African-American Muslim the Oscar. Please
don’t get me wrong here. I’m a fan of Ali (especially his work in
House of Cards) but his win will be more symbolic than
accurate. This will be Hollywood’s way of saying “take that, Mr.
Trump”. And I’m sure his acceptance speech will be one of the most
memorable of the night.

For a while I was dead set on Portman but I am now locked in
with Stone. She captured what it means to be a fighter, a survivor
and above all else a dreamer. At a time when I’ve shifted my career
course and finally decided to pursue filmmaking her performance
resonated with me. “Here’s to the ones who dream.”

Who will win: Emma Stone

She has steamrolled her way through the latest award shows so
it now seems like a foregone conclusion that she will win. In her
speech at the SAG Awards she said she was honored to be an actor
playing an actor being recognized by other actors. Get used to it
Emma; you’ve got one more time to be honored this awards
season.

I’ve seen Affleck brood through an entire movie before. I’ve
seen Denzel deliver powerful lines with gusto before. I’ve never
seen Gosling as a song and dance man. He learned how to play the
piano just before shooting began and John Legend said he was
jealous of how quickly he picked it up. And I’m glad he did because
I couldn’t imagine any other actor in this role. His charm, wit and
soul fit perfectly into the character of Seb.

Who will win: Denzel Washington

It seemed like Affleck was a sure thing to take home this
award but the resurfacing of allegations of sexual harassment have
derailed his campaign. After winning the SAG award Washington is
now the front runner. Between the two I prefer Washington’s
performance anyway. If Denzel does win, he will join Walter
Brennan, Ingrid Bergman, Jack Nicholson, Meryl Streep, and Daniel
Day-Lewis in the “3 Oscars Club”. When it comes to actors, only
Katharine Hepburn has more, with 4.

His vision is unique. Who would dare make an original motion
picture musical in 2017? They just aren’t backed by the studios
because they don’t make money. Well, this one has made $125 million
as it has touched audiences young and old. When I typically think
of directors I think of shot choices but directing is much more
than that. Chazelle worked in sync with every department to create
this modern day gem.

Who will win: Damien Chazelle

He’s won every other prestigious award including the
Director’s Guild Award. It’s a sure thing for Chazelle to be
recognized by the Academy as Best Director as he has helped push
the brand of Hollywood as a positive entity.

My #1 film of the year usually excels at every facet of
filmmaking: directing, camera, script, acting, production design,
costume, sound, etc. Last year that was Mad Max: Fury Road
and sadly it did not win. This year, without question that film is
La La Land. Every element of the film comes together with
fluidity and impeccable style. I could watch this film over and
over. It just doesn’t have any flaws. Furthermore, I am truly
inspired by this film. It makes me want to pursue my dreams and
never give up no matter what obstacle awaits me.

Who will win: La La Land

It is rare that my #1 film of the year matches up with the
Academy’s Best Picture winner. The last time it happened was No
Country for Old Men in 2007. Well, it looks like it will
happen again this year. The only film that stands in La La
Land’s way would be Moonlight but I just don’t see it
happening. Being nominated in a record-tying 14 categories is just
too much to ignore. If the Academy is going to nominate a film that
many times it will likely win the biggest prize of the night.
Hollywood should just use this tagline to promote its brand for the
foreseeable future, “This is the dream! It’s conflict and it’s
compromise, and it’s very, very exciting!” Thank you, Mr. Chazelle,
for those words to live by.

So, I believe that answers the big questions looming over the
89th Academy Awards. There will be plenty of opportunities for
Hollywood to make their political statements especially with Best
Foreign Language Film, Documentary Feature and the acting
categories. After two years of all-white acting nominees I am
predicting 3 African-American winners. Movies take a long time to
make so it’s not like these particular films were created just to
quell the backlash of #OscarsSoWhite. I hope the world will see
these accomplishments as progress instead of tokenism because the
recipients are unquestionably worthy of their statuettes.

As for La La Land’s attempt at the record books I believe it
will fall just short of tying the record of 11 by winning 10
Oscars. I’ll be rooting for it to win 12 but I just don’t think
it’s possible. Since it is nominated twice for Best Song the film
would have to win Best Sound Editing and then pull off an upset in
either Best Actor or Best Original Screenplay to have a chance at
the record. I hope it happens but it’s a long shot. Damien Chazelle
and company will have to settle for the round number of 10. What a
disappointing evening!

Enjoy the festivities and I hope you win your Oscar pool!
“I’ll see you in the movies.”