Both the GFS and the EC agree (and have been remarkablyconsistent) with their previous thinking that the trof will cutoff into a big wobbly upper low. There is not much energy aroundto force the low to move on so it will likely wobble through atleast early Tuesday and if the EC is to be believed Wednesday. TheEC forecasts more moisture with the system and puts down morerainfall. This kind of system will make for a very tough forecast.It is going to be likely that at any given time some of the areawill have clouds and showers while other parts will be partlycloudy and dry. Then a while later other parts will be wet anddry. Really best to broad brush the forecast. Snow levels will berather low esp for this time of the year and will be between 5000and 6000 feet. No thunder in the official forecast yet will haveto wait and see how much cold air aloft there is with the low.

Snow in SoCal in May?

Author:

2NAKLLR [ Tue May 02, 2017 2:10 pm ]

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Re: SoCal May Rain

Do want.

Author:

snowhottie [ Tue May 02, 2017 5:07 pm ]

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Re: SoCal May Rain

Stolen from SnS

SurfnSnowboard wrote:

Interesting. It's going to cool off but still uncertain about snow levels.

Last night when I looked it only had half an inch for Socal!

Author:

2NAKLLR [ Tue May 02, 2017 9:23 pm ]

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Re: SoCal May Rain

A nice slow wobbly L in the bight will do that. Complete w flip flops and wide variations in precip and conditions. Cant wait.

Author:

Spirit Tree [ Wed May 03, 2017 11:39 am ]

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Re: SoCal May Rain

Really don't want to over think this one. Temps that are going to be 30 degrees cooler hEre, precip would be an added bonus.This AM LoX disc did get me thinking...a snipet."Sunday currently looks like the best bet for fairly widespread showers at times along with the slight chance of thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat will be largely dependent on the exact track of the system as well as the extent solar heating near the surface. The increased cloud cover, precipitation, and heights of only 550-555 dm will support highs generally in the 60s. Snow levels with this system could drop down to 6000 feet and briefly as low as 4500 feet. Gusty onshore to northwest winds are likely across many areas on Sunday. "

Author:

snowhottie [ Wed May 03, 2017 2:46 pm ]

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Re: SoCal May Rain

xposting SnS

Is this real life or is it fantasy?

Author:

SurfnSnowboard [ Wed May 03, 2017 2:51 pm ]

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Re: SoCal May Rain, or Snow

I'm too lazy to post it but the CNRFC has similar qpf amounts. That increases my confidence that it's a real possibility. Still only medium confidence though.

By Sunday the cut-off low is nearly overhead bringing continuedshowers and cloudy conditions along with the slight chance ofthunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to fall further withhigh temperatures generally in the upper 50s to mid 60 exceptmuch colder at higher elevations Locally gusty northwesterly windsare also expected. Early rainfall estimates through Sunday aregenerally less than half an inch except for locally higher amountsin the mountains and any thunderstorms that form. Early snowfallestimates are 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts possiblemainly above 5000 feet.

Model guidance begins to diverge by early next week leading to lowconfidence in the forecast from Monday on. The EURO is about 12hours slower than the GFS is pushing the cut-off low to the eastwith GFS ensembles generally somewhere in between the twooperational solutions. The current forecast package leans towardsthe slower EURO given the nature of cut-off lows and a lack of asignificant kicker to push it east early in the week.

Author:

SurfnSnowboard [ Thu May 04, 2017 9:12 pm ]

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Re: SoCal May Rain, or Snow

X-post

Just minor variance in the qpf each run.

Author:

snowhottie [ Thu May 04, 2017 9:27 pm ]

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Re: SoCal May Rain, or Snow

^^The precip field overall is getting dragged further south though.

A dramatic change up in the Bay Area from the high temps of the last 2 days. As night fell high clouds above and a thick marine layer below were rushing in. The temp. has dropped like a rock. I expect the same for SoCal.

Author:

snowhottie [ Fri May 05, 2017 7:49 am ]

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Re: SoCal May Rain, or Snow

Precip has been completely taken out of the SF forecast now. There is a 4700 ft. snow level for SoCal on the weather table though. Chilly. Lots of cold air over the ocean can be seen on satellite.

Author:

Spirit Tree [ Fri May 05, 2017 8:53 am ]

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Re: SoCal May Rain, or Snow

^^yesterday late afternoon it dropped from mid 90's to mid/lower 70's in about an hour. Talk about a/c being turned on...

This might be the last weekend of season to see the snow fly...then again there's Mother's day. Seems like more often than not the news is showing fresh snow that has fallen on the flowers for that day in the local mountains. Don't know the stats just going by recollection ...?

Author:

2NAKLLR [ Fri May 05, 2017 8:58 am ]

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Re: SoCal May Rain, or Snow

Ive got a San G permit for the 13th. Id prefer less than 6in fresh.

Author:

Spirit Tree [ Fri May 05, 2017 9:17 am ]

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Re: SoCal May Rain, or Snow

2NAKLLR wrote:

Ive got a San G permit for the 13th. I'd prefer less than 6in fresh.

That sounds like fun...they wanted to make that a ski resort/mountain in the 40's.