In Israeli Election, the Center Holds

With the vote-counting nearly completed, it is already possible to draw a number of conclusions regarding the 2013 Knesset elections in Israel

First, the long-standing division of Israeli parties into”‘left and right” wing blocs does not fully capture the reality. The norm among analysts is to cite the existence of two competing “camps” in Israel — the “left and the Arabs” bloc, and the “right plus the religious” bloc. If seen in these terms the elections yesterday produced a tie, with each of these blocs winning 60 seats in the 120 member Knesset.

But if one considers that the “left” bloc is supposed to include everyone from the centrists of Yesh Atid to the Nasserist Arab nationalists of the Balad movement, and the “right” takes in Ultra-Orthodox Jews of Shas and secular, security-minded hawks in Likud, it becomes plain that this simplistic division is insufficient.

The “left” and “right” blocs were once characterized respectively as those parties committed to the possibility of territorial compromise as a road to peace with the Palestinians and the Arab world, and those opposed to such a path on security or nationalist/religious grounds.

This was always an insufficient distinction. But it ceased to make sense a long time ago. In Israel today, there are few true believers in “land for peace” because of the obvious failure of experiments in territorial compromise to actually bring about a peaceful solution. At the same time, there are also fewer ideological adherents to the traditional “Whole Land of Israel” philosophy of the right.

Rather, the salient fact of Israeli politics today is the existence of a large pool of voters who do not totally reject the possibility of compromise, but who are deeply skeptical of Arab intentions. These centrist voters are not fired up or primarily concerned with ideological and nationalist issues.

Amid the surrounding Mid-East chaos, they want normal lives for themselves and their children. Their priorities are largely identical to those of middle class voters in other western democracies — taxation, personal security, standards of education.

The big surprise of the election results yesterday came from the strong performance of the “Yesh Atid” party of former journalist Yair Lapid. Lapid’s appeal — pragmatic, moderate, concerned with a fair sharing of the national burden — was precisely to these Israeli centrist voters. It worked.

But Lapid may want to note that his is only the latest in a long line of centrist lists that have done well initially by appealing to the Israeli center, but have subsequently failed to establish themselves as a permanent presence on the political scene.

Kadima, which last night went from 28 seats down to a projected 2, was an example of just such a party. Before this, Israelis remember the Center Party of former Chief of Staff Amnon Shahak, the Shinui party of Lapid’s own father, the Third Way list of Avigdor Kahalani, all the way back to the prototype Israeli centrist surprise of Yigael Yadin’s Democratic Movement for Change in 1977.

One of the central paradoxes of Israeli political life is that this middle-class, centrist public is the key presence and the backbone of Israeli society, but no party that has been able to retain its undivided affections for long has yet emerged. Centrist lists in Israel tend to burn brightly but briefly. The system has a near insurmountable tendency in the end to go back to the dominance of the “historic” parties of Likud and Labor, which derive from the rival, pre-state Revisionist and Labor Zionist movements. In this more limited sense, the “left-right” division still makes sense.

The indication is that the middle class in Europe and in America is dwindling. If Israel can sustain a vibrant middle class than something is not wrong, just different from the welfare states, European or American, where the middle class is being taxed away. Here in Germany an ex-German Jew from NY (could have been an Israeli) pronounced the definitive death of democracy because of the dominance of Netanyahu. What seems to be dead or seriously wounded in Israel is the party of proponents for trusting the Palestinian leadership. And this cannot be said for many American and European politicians. As Rubin said, the pundits in the West do not seem do understand Israel. We know that they do not understand Islamism.

The West is insane. If America reelects Obama this is democracy, but if Israel reelects Netanyahu it’s the end of democracy. The only way Israel can be a democracy in the eyes of the West is by electing some far-leftist who is as insane as they are and will happily put Israel’s throat to the Muslim knife. Netanyahu’s dominance means Likud got 25% of the vote — surely that’s nothing less than fascist. Meanwhile the personality cult developed around Obama is the epitome of democracy and a celebration of free and independent thinking individuals. Everything is upside down these days. We are surrounded by people calling for the destruction of Israel and the genocide of the Jews, yet we are the Nazis for offering them land for peace that they have rejected with both hands. Not just us, but also the West will not survive Western insanity. A raging lunatic suffering massive delusions, seeing things where they don’t exist and not seeing things where they do exist, can’t survive his interaction with reality. Sooner or later he’ll get run over by a car, fall from a tall building, drown in a sea he doesn’t realize exists, or burn in the flames he walked right into.

Yes, Jordan did have parliamentary elections today. I saw the expected turnout was going to be very low.
I have no idea what the parties are, but am much more aware of the ethnic factions. So, if Jordan’s Bedouin who support a constitutional monarchy have a party list, vote for them. Jordan should not get further damaged by the refugees from Iraq, and now from Syria.

Here’s what makes most sense to me. Likud-Beytenu of course plus Lapid’s Yesh Atid and Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi. That’s already 61-62 seats. Add in Kadima if they pass the threshold. Add Tenua, but only if Livni can be held in check and far from the “peace process”. That’s it. No ultra-Orthodox. That provides the opportunity to reform the Chief Rabbinate and Interior Ministry, deny funding to schools that refuse to teach core subjects, and institute a national draft registry. Those who refuse to register or refuse to come if drafted can face financial sanctions. A centrist coalition also makes possible reform of Israel’s electoral system.

You are describing a beautiful scenario. Of course, the ultra-orthodox have to be reined in and the insane electoral system must be reformed, yet it is a platform for peace-time. But Israel is at war. Can a center government take care of Iran, Lebanon, Egypt, the Hamas in Gaza and the West-Bank and the brotherhood slowly infiltrating Jordan? A large number of Israelis have gotten used to the danger emanating from those places but I am not sure if the caffe-latte crowd appreciates enough the fact that those very dangers have exponentially increased thanks to the utterances of Mr. Obama. I see a bad moon rising…..

During most Arab attacks Israel was led by a pragamatic centrist gov’t. We need realistic, level headed people and not dogmatic and fanatic ideologues, either on the right or the left.

The question is what constitutes pragmatism. As strange as it may sound to some people, I consider Bennet, or at least what little I know of him, pragmatic in the context of the Arab-Israeli conflict. The platform of Habayit Hayehudi specifically rejects annexing Judea and Samaria with all its Arab population as unrealistic. It does, however, recognize that the Arabs don’t want peace and a real two-state-solution, which I consider a simple fact. With that as a premise they’re looking for ways to manage the conflict. I think that this is the most realistic approach. Being realistic means that one must first recognize reality. It doesn’t mean blindly following the international conventional “wisdom” even when it’s clearly fantasy-based. And reality is very complex. One facet of it is that Judea and Samaria is filled with Arabs, so the utopians on the extreme right who dream of greater Israel are delusional. Another facet is that the Arabs don’t want peace and aren’t willing to accept a Jewish state in any borders, and in addition the situation with the Muslim world is deteriorating fast with the Mo Bros, the salafists, AQ affiliates and others of their ilk gaining power all around us and also expanding their territories in Africa and Asia, so the leftist utopians still stuck in the outdated fantasy about peace in our time are completely out of their minds.

But the complexity doesn’t end there. Currently our greatest problem isn’t the Islamic tide, but the West. If the West weren’t running about like a deranged fool, entirely oblivious to everything that’s going on in the real world rather than in the parallel universe occupying their brains, there were many things that could be done to contain the Islamic tide and prevent it from becoming an ever greater problem. For instance, not arming them would be a good start. Not allowing them to get more nukes is another wonderful idea. Not inviting millions of fanatics to settle in all Western countries would also be sensible. But the West these days is anything but sensible. And in addition to the permanently crazy Euros, we’ve got in this crucial period one of the stupidest presidents in American history, a radical dogmatic ideologue who just nominated some of the worst blathering idiots he could find to the most important positions in his admin. As result of the Western staggering folly the Islamic tide will eventually become our and the world’s greatest problem.

And this is the reality an Israeli PM has to deal with. He needs to find a way to navigate the ship without it drowning and without losing too many passengers in this increasingly treacherous and dangerous sea, through all the enormous icebergs lurking everywhere and all the sharks coming at us from all directions, plus quite a few axe wielding psychotic passengers aboard the ship working tirelessly to tear it down in the belief that the sharks are a vegetarian species seeking peaceful coexistence with all other marine animals and we are the predators threatening to devour them. For that almost impossible mission we need someone who is both very intelligent and very experienced, realistic and level headed, and has a steady hand. Unfortunately, god isn’t available for the job right now and all we can get is the very human Netanyahu. From all the available options he’s probably the best we can get right now. He’s currently our most experienced statesman, he’s smart and he isn’t engaged in utopian hallucinations of either kind — quite the rarity among national leaders today. We simply don’t have anyone else right now that can even remotely fit the bill. The Israeli PM will have to deal with both the regional madmen and the Western madmen. He will have to know when to appease them — I mean the West, there’s no use trying to appease genocidal jihadists — and when to insist and be assertive. To do that he needs a flexible centrist coalition. Until the time the West recognizes that the cuase of war and turmoil in the world today isn’t the Jewish Problem. Of course by then the real problems will be much bigger, but at least the West will have no choice but to confront them rather than focus on a scapegoat believing its sacrifice is the solution.

I generally agree exception made for Livni. She won’t be a very positive addition, no one really needs this loser.
As for drafting Haredim, it sounds good in theory but does the IDF really want very many of them or is it even prepared to make adjustments for them? I doubt it. It’s more worthwhile just getting them into the work-force.

A compromise could be that they could choose between military service and Sheirut Leumi (National Service). The latter is an alternative for people who for some reason can’t serve in the army, and it allows them to do community services instead, such as working in hospitals, tutoring children and the like. That kind of service sits very well with the Torah that encourages good deeds and charity (haredim do a lot of charity work, not only in their own community), and the military wouldn’t have to acommodate large numbers of haredim with their special needs. Of course, the haredic leadership will still oppose it for ideological-theological reasons, but there may be more haredics who would consign themselves to such an alternative.

“If the priorities of Israel’s constituency “are largely identical to those of middle class voters in other western democracies” then there is something seriously wrong.”

I agree.

Bad news for America of old.

For Obama’s transformed America, though, that’s seriously good news.

What a lot of people around the world are sensing is that the transformation of America that Obama promised would be baked into this nation is just about ready to be taken out of the oven.

American patriots have only their beer to cry in because their women swallowed Obama’s lies hook like and sinker. They voted Obama in for a second term.

The irony: The war on women was made up.

And because enough American women swallowed it, Obama is now calling all the shots, from gun control, to control of the Catholic church’s stand on gay marriage and abortion, to amnesty for all border crossing ObamaVoters, to spending tax dollars like they were never spent before.

And in case some of you don’t realize it, Obama is in the process this year of decimating the U.S. military to the tune of nearly 25 billion dollars.

The service academies are on the short list of institutions that belong only in museums.

A neutered U.S. military is one Muslim countries fear not, but laugh at.

Our nuclear deterrent is being destroyed so it’s capable of not even deterring a mouse. The positions of our nuclear submarines is now being tracked by new sub oceanic technology invented by America, given in good faith to the Russians because Obama now has the voter mandate, the flexibility to drive this nation in any direction he cares to.

Obama’s objectives, the object of scorn on Fox News, have Fox News in the cross hairs. Hannity’s attacks on Obama are a year away from being cancelled by Fox because of ratings in the toilet.

Rachel Maddow is taking over.

The world is changing. The United States will soon be coming up for its final breath. Obama’s water boarding of the Republican Party has them crying for their mothers, the same mothers that all worship Obama from their knees. American women have given themselves to Obama body and soul.

There will be no more Obama Beaches. No more raising flags on MountSuribachis. America used to be drunk with power. Now Americans who long for the old American Dream will have to resort to drinking their troubles away. Obama is here to stay. A few more three year terms is just one executive order away.

One of the most interesting aspects of the transformed America is the role of the President and the first lady.

And I heartily approve of both. For it’s high time this nation realized the days of free enterprise and tearing up at the sight of the raising of the red white and blue are over.

Kaput.

Gone.

Sayonara baby.

Those white men values and ideals held by so many so deeply in America’s heartland have been given their walking papers. No even Jack Bauer at his best can stop the tidal wave of ObamaPopularity by proclamation (executive order).

I know Obama opposers are mad. Republicans are furious Obama’s taken their country and turned it into a puppet state where Obama pulls all the strings. No wonder Republicans feel so unconnected. They’re out of power to stay. They’re shocked. Flabbergasted. It’s undeniable that with President Barack Obama at the helm, this nation has a new feel and look.

And so does Michelle. Wasn’t she gorgeous at the inauguration, sporting a $25,000 outfit and a first lady do.

Now, I did hear some catty, jealous slams at her new look. Those people should be put in jail and the key thrown away. Don’t laugh. All in good time.

With Obama, that’s the new American way. If you’re looking toward the old constitution for the law, you’re mistaken.

Just look to Obama.

It should be apparent as all get out to any Republican who knows the score. Obama’s word is now law.

And as beautiful as she is, that’s how intelligent Michelle is as she does her best to help her husband, the great Barack Obama, turn this country into a nation she can be proud of. One where the meek and the poor, our black brothers and sisters, shall inherit the earth.

Remember, there’s a reason Obama transferred 4 trillion in white wealth to black supporters over his first four years.

He was repaying our forebearers who were brought from Africa in chains to slave day and night to make their white masters rich; that same money, which was passed from white generation to generation for generations, deserves to be in black pockets and used to destroy the Republican Party, to steal every vote possible and to ensure that it will never rise again.

Personally, I was so proud of John Roberts for helping turn this past election around with his vote for ObamaCare. Yet I was disappointed it had to be bought with such plum jobs for Roberts’ relatives and children. The Republicans, though, are too tied up in their own underwear to realize it.It seems to me that every day they’re more and more afraid to speak. How funny. How far the mighty have fallen since those hateful times when they were the kings of the castle, on the top of the heap.

In private, Michelle makes me proud when she says she hopes every white man with hate in his heart ends up in ObamaHell, especially anyone who disagrees with the President who knows all things and speaks of honor and truth and, longs for the day when all white males are eliminated from positions of strength and power.

I love watching and listening to Rachel Maddow sing every Obama tune, sucking up to Obama every time she meets him.

I love to hear Rachel talk; the way she describes white men like impotent, empty suits who can’t fight with fists, but need their guns to compete with the blacks busy liberating their big houses, their green money and their white women.
Notice how all the black football, basketball and baseball players have white women? How does it feel. The shoe is now on the other foot. And white women’s lips are finding out what a real man feels like.

Once Obama threatens whites who refuse to give up their guns with jail time, the white gunholders will begin dancing to Obama’s orders like Obama was shooting bullets at their white little feet.

In about nine months, when the white Catholic leaders start going to jail for refusing to abide by ObamaCare and provide black women with the birth control that is their right, everybody will see how soft the mainstream Catholic support of their leadership truly is. The Pope being against abortion and gay marriage is going to come to a gradual end, thanks to Obama not putting up with their entreaties about their claimed rights in the Constitution. Poppycock, Obama will say.

President Obama has said many times that the Constitution, which was used to keep slavery alive, is to be defined however Obama Barack defines it.

It’s becoming clearer and clearer to more and more whites on the hill that the law is now whatever President Obama says it is.

And I laugh and laugh every time Obama issues an executive order and the Republicans stand around like cigar store indians without the faintest idea what to do or say, they’ll mouths open; agast.

When Obama became President,he said he was on a seek and destroy mission, seeking out whites that opposed him, and destroying the white institutions in this evil country that have oppressed our black brothers and sisters for far too long.

The Muslim terrorist attacks, the ones to come, will make 9/11 look like child’s play.

But the fear they engender will be nothing nothing like the fear that would have them shaking in their boots if they knew the plans President Obama has for them over the next four years.

Guns gone. Constitution on its ear. Republican Party doomed. National debt so vast that it will require the hubble telescope to see it.

Why is it that the “center” is considered “sane and pragmatic” but the right wing is not? Right wing voters also want lower taxes and help for the middle class – it is not the province of so-called center parties. We believe, though, that we need a leader who will be strong on security first. The whole country knew that Bibi would win and take care of security issues in any case, so the so-called center voters could express their wish for the same things that most people want.

Looks to me like a triumph of mediocrity. I would call it a collapse into a post-Zionist center. I voted Likud with great doubt, because I saw no alternative.

I don’t believe that this pragmatism that Jonathon speaks of is some clever silent majority wisdom. Much more likely, it is just personal, social and economic self-interest speaking. Now that Bibi and Yair Lapid appear to have coordinated their campaigns to some extent – also to smear Bennet and draw voters to Yesh Atid – I am more disappointed. Yes, Israel will survive and defeat the Arabs militarily, but the soul of this country is in great doubt in my eyes.

The zionist bloc must perform two urgent reforms :1) The change of the scrutiny mode from proportionnal to majority system or the simple raising of the minimum threshold to enter the parliament ( from 1,5% to 5% )+ the right to vote for israelis expatriates.( as is common with every western democracies).2) the equal sharing of the military burden among all citizens witha compulsory civil service for othodox and arabs who do not want to bear arms.

The reform of the election system is a very simple task and will bring stability to the government; less blackmailing by fringe interests, more respect for the majority’s choices.The extension of the right to vote for israelis expats will also bring more stability since most of them identify themselves with the zionist group either right or left.

The equal sharing of the service to the state is more complex but also bring more far-reaching changes in the social fabric.

I hope you can add your voice in the public debate in Israel to push forward those reforms.