A prediction for tonight’s first round playoff game between the Stanford Cardinal and Cal State Bakersfield: Stanford will win. Decisively. I should probably say, I hope they win. But by hope I would mean “fully expect” or “waiting expectantly” in the Biblical sense, not nervous fingers crossed having no idea how it’s going to turn out. My only question is will it be straight sets or four?

In stating open allegiance to the Cardinal, I want to make it clear that I bear no ill will for Bakersfield the city, the university, or the volleyball team. Normally, I would have compassion for them as the clear underdog. And they get props for winning the Western Athletic Conference championship. This is their first appearance in NCAA Division I volleyball.

I think this is going to be a tough game for them.

Haven’t taken much time to do number crunching. It appears to me that CSUB has a similar style to Stanford. They’ve elected to go wide rather than deep, relying on three players to generate most of their kills. Unfortunately for Bakersfield, Stanford is a little wider. Here is how the two teams compare on attack:

Bakersfield

kills

KEff

Stanford

kills

KEff

Danika Youngblood

404

.188

Inky Ajanaku

383

.446

Molly O'Hagan

359

.305

Jordan Burgess

342

.262

Kelsee Sawyer

350

.219

Morgan Boukather

265

.285

Sydney Haynes

198

.208

Merete Lutz

256

.446

Star Tucker-Campbell

67

.193

Brittany Howard

228

.207

The most interesting statistic for me is the respective heights of the five attackers for each team. Take a look how they line up:

Position

Bakersfield

Stanford

Advantage

OH

Danika Youngblood

5-7

Jordan Burgess

6-1

+6”

MB

Molly O'Hagan

5-11

Inky Ajanaku

6-3

+4”

OH

Kelsee Sawyer

5-10

Brittany Howard

6-3

+5”

MB

Sydney Haynes

6-2

Merete Lutz

6-8

+6”

MB/Opp

Star Tucker-Campbell

5-10

Morgan Boukather

6-1

+3”

Obviously, Stanford is a bigger team. Collectively they are two feet taller than Bakersfield. It will be interesting to see how that affects play.

And it’s interesting to think about the fact that Stanford is able to recruit players that are so much taller than Bakersfield. I’m thinking back to an Econtalk discussion on sports. Stanford and Cal State Bakersfield both have just one thing they can offer a student—a scholarship and an education.

But both schools have very different reputations for both academic and athletic performance. If you are a phenomenal volleyball player and Stanford and Bakersfield both offer you a scholarship to play volleyball and study, where do you go? Do you even have to think about it?

It’s not fair, really, but I’m still rooting for the favorite.

UPDATE

What an interesting match. There never really was a doubt that Stanford would win, but it was an odd way to win and Bakersfield played well.

“They (CSUB) are all volleyball players: They control the ball, they’re all good servers, they’re all smart and have high volleyball-IQs. As they capitalize on the success of doing well and getting into the tournament, and then they keep adding to their program down the road, this is a big step for them…They’re fun to watch and hard to play against.”

“It’s a different game. This is a game of angles and the angles are all different. They did some great things. Their coach is a very intense person, was a great player, so it doesn’t surprise me that her team has that intensity too.”

I don’t have a link, but in the pre-interval interview, Coach Dunning said he was impressed with Bakersfield’s setter. He said his team was having a hard time getting a second blocker on the attacker because their setter was so good at faking.

“I think that it was important that we take a win as a win and I think they [Bakersfield] played awesome. Kudos to them … Every game that you are trying to win you’re trying to end someone season and you should play with pride because of that and respect every opponent.”

While you find yourself rejoicing that your team won, it had to be disappointing for Bakersfield. Their senior libero said,

“I’d tried not to think about [tonight] being my last game. I just tried to focus on having fun and playing how I’ve played my whole life.”

Here’s how the teams found their points:

Stanford

Bakersfield

Offense

-8

35

Kills

43

+2

2

Aces

0

Defense

+11

19

Blocks

8

Gifts from Opp.

+13

19

Attack Errors (Less Blocks)

6

0

Opponent Ball Handling Errors

0

-3

0

Opponent Service Errors

3

75

TOTAL

60

Bakersfield actually outkilled Stanford. That is impressive. But they were incredibly inefficient at .049. And those 18 blocks really hurt. I wish I had kept count of how many times the commentators said someone on Stanford “was way over the net on that one.”

One statistic that speaks volumes about Bakersfield is their 50 digs (to Stanford’s 36). Clearly, they were determined not to let the ball hit the floor.

It’s great that Cal State Bakersfield played so well. Perhaps mildly alarming that the game was so close. Nevertheless, a win is a win. One down, five to go.

Cloudy skies early followed by a mixture of light rain and snow in the afternoon. High near 40F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Snow accumulations less than one inch.

Saturday02/2480%

Rain

Cloudy and damp with rain in the morning...then becoming partly cloudy. High 46F. Winds W at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

Sunday02/25100%

Rain

Periods of rain. High 44F. Winds SW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall around a half an inch.

Website Netiquette

1. The Golden Rule applies. ("Would I say it to their face?")
2. Follow the 4:8 principle: Whatever is true, noble, right, pure, lovely, admirable, excellent, or praiseworthy.
3. Nothing immoral, illegal, unethical.
4. No hating. If we don't like it, we don't discuss it or are careful to focus on ideas and principles, not people.
5. No stealing. If it isn't mine, I will say to whom it belongs. Any copyrighted material used here is used only in the spirit of fair use. (Please let me know if you suspect I am in violation of copyright law.)