000
FXUS65 KPIH 051032
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
332 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night. Things are starting
to wind down with a cold front exiting the region and snowshowers
on the wane. Winds should also continue to taper off throughout
the morning. GFS/NAM still split on timing of next weather
system. NAM is holding on to a drier pattern for Tuesday, bringing
in some light showers through on Tuesday night. GFS suggests a
more active Tuesday with more widespread showers. SREF and ECMWF
more supportive of the GFS solution. Have adjusted PoPs upward for
Tuesday, and down for Wednesday and Wednesday night as upper
ridging moves into the area. Hinsberger
.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Monday. The GFS and ECMWF models
continue to show a significant winter storm system impacting the
area Thursday afternoon through Friday. The GFS model continues to
be several hours ahead of the ECMWF model with this system.
Regardless, Thursday night into Friday will be WET AND WINDY across
all of Eastern Idaho. The Central mountains and Eastern highlands
look to get significant snowfall. Currently, models are showing 8 to
12 inches of snow with locally higher amounts. This storm will
eventually turn warm at lower elevations on Friday bringing a mix of
rain and snow for several hours. However, our area will likely see
significant snowfall in the valleys as well. Models currently show 3
to 5 inches in the valleys Thursday night into Friday. There is
still some uncertainty with snow levels which could drop snow
amounts particularly for Cassia county...Eastern Magic Valley and
Lower Snake River plain.
The weekend will be drier at lower elevations. However, models
continue to show light to moderate mountain snow particularly for the
Western Central mountains and Eastern Highland mountains. Wyatt
&&
.AVIATION...The cold front is mostly through our area with KDIJ
still seeing MVFR/IFR CIGS and VIS with snow showers. All other TAF
sites have become VFR with moderate to strong West to Northwest
winds impacting them from winds behind the cold front. Wyatt
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for IDZ019-023-
025.
&&
$$