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Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Is it REALLY the End of America?

By George:

I have previously done an article on the Predictions of Porter Stansberry, gave you the link to his "video", and promised that I will give you my evaluation and assessment which would not necessarily be based strictly on financial considerations. I have asked for your comments, and though a large number of people visited the post, only a handful took the time to give us their insights.

But now it's my turn to give you a mind-dump of the topic under discussion, which is: "The End of America".

The Financial Argument
When I first heard Porter's prediction, I mulled it over for a while with my heart beating double time, because it resonated with a theory that I have been espousing to my friends for a while. So I actually took their offer and opened an account with them. This allowed me to get a better idea of what Porter Stansberry is all about. I read some of their articles, and two points struck me.

First, they have an awful lot of material available on their website for their members. I won't elaborate on the five pamphlets that they give away with the offer, but the titles will give you an idea of the contents. Since the time that I have signed up, I have been receiving 5 separate newsletters emailed to me every day.

Now I would like to give you a detailed intelligent report as to the value of the suggestions offered, but alas I am NOT a financial guru (and I don't play one on TV). I was hoping that there might be some experts out there who could offer their evaluation via comments, and while there were relatively few comments offered, the ones that were recorded are thoughtful and of high caliber, and agree that the catastrophe will happen, it's just a question of how soon.

The second point that struck me as I perused the Porter Stansberry archives, was that the December 2008 Monthly Newsletter was titled "The End of America", while the August 2009 Monthly Newsletter was titled "The End of America II". Needless to say, the current media blitz is back to "The End of America". Hmmm.. So is this just a case of “scatter prediction”? Since we all know that it WILL eventually happen, just keep predicting it every year, and when it happens you will be correct?

The key, though, seems to be, that everyone I have discussed this with seems to be of the opinion that a collapse is inevitable. When? That's hazy. My own logical conclusion gives it a little wider time-frame, because if America collapses, the rest of the world will follow into the maelstrom created. This inevitable fact will incentivize the outside instigative parties to proceed with caution in order to mitigate their own losses. However, as the news headlines clearly show, the financial saber-rattling has already started. The bottom line is that the financial collapse WILL happen sooner than later, unless certain drastic steps are taken.

"So what steps should be taken?" you ask. In my opinion, we first have to look around the world and learn from the failures of other countries. Then, the minimum steps taken should be as follows:

To free us from OPEC subjugation, we MUST immediately start drilling for oil and gas in our own resource sectors, and start building additional refining capacity, in addition to pursuing alternate energy sources.

We must declare a moratorium on Government Regulations that stifle production in the travel, manufacturing and energy sectors.

We must cut back the size of the Government to what is absolutely necessary. Thus, we must analyze ALL the Government employee positions and programs currently being funded, and eliminate those that are not 100% necessary. This will be very difficult, so I suggest that we list all the programs along with their costs, and get feedback from the public.

We must upgrade our Education System. This will require having the best teachers, not necessarily the most "tenured".

In order to swing the balance of trade in our favor, we must encourage manufacturing for exporting. We have to get our production costs more competitive with foreign labor, so this may have to involve the disbanding of Labor Unions.

Etc..

Do I think that ANY of these steps, or their equivalent will be taken by our Government? NO! Ergo, the prediction of DOOM.

The Religious Argument
As I now remove my little paper hat with "Financial Guru Wannabe" lettered on it, I will put on a totally different hat. At work I find time to discuss the state of our country with a co-worker who happens to be a Church Deacon and a requisite Liberal. As you can imagine, most of the time our discussion points are diametrically opposed, but when it came to the outlook we envision for the American society in the near future, we both saw it with a critical eye. Both of our religious scholarships had cast a pall on the American future, due to the deterioration of the ethical standards being championed by the schools, special interests, and the Government. Both of our religious studies have taught us that the advent of complacency in face of overt homosexuality, greed and corruption permeating the Government at all levels, the rampant immorality and lewdness exuded by Hollywood, cable TV, and even broadcast television, probably brought our society close to the tipping point on God's scales. How much time does America have before God sits in judgement over us?

The Jewish Historical Argument
And finally I will revert to the "yarmulke" of an Orthodox Jew who has studied Jewish History with a critical mind. This part of my prognostication refers strictly to the American Jewish society. So if you are not of the Jewish persuasion, you can skip ahead to the final paragraph of this article.

The Jewish People, as a whole, have been displaced from their ancestral home is Israel for the past 2000 years. During the ensuing years they have suffered the iniquitous degradation of the Diaspora and have settled in countries throughout the world. In whichever country the "wandering Jew" settled, he prospered, along with his host country.

Then somewhere along the way, inexplicably, the serpent of Anti-Semitism would rear its ugly head, resulting in the Jews being driven from their adopted country, or murdered, or both. Time after time, country after country, the same scenario was repeated with eerie similarity. A partial list of expulsions contains: England (1290), France (1306 and 1394), Hungary (1349 and 1360), German states (1348 and 1498), Austria (1421), Lithuania (1445 and 1495), Spain (1492), and Portugal (1497). After expelling the Jews, the host countries would suffer a financial downturn, which is why some of them would invite the Jews back, only to repeat the pattern soon after.

What can account for this mysterious historical consistency? The sheer magnitudes of these cycles defy logical explanation. Yes, defy logical explanation, but not Prophetic explanation. The Hebrew Prophets have foretold of the wanderings of the Jewish people after the destruction of the Temple in Jerusalem. They prophesied of the scattering of the Jewish people to the four corners of the world, and of constant wanderings until the in-gathering of the exiles reunites them once again in the land of their forefathers, which is Israel. Not being able to rest. Not being able to settle and say "This is my home." As soon as the Jews put down roots in a land other than their own, God puts events into motion to have them uprooted. Over and over and over again.

Which brings us up to the "Modern" era. Winston Churchill is reported to have said: "Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it". The Jews have never learned from history. Perhaps it is eternal optimism, or maybe just a stubborn streak, but in spite of multiple previous expulsions, Jews resettled in Germany. As little as 80 years ago, the German Jews felt that Germany was the new Zion, and Berlin their new Jerusalem. They felt that they were home and they thrived in their friendly surroundings. When the Nazi Party came to power, they refused to believe that it could happen again. When Hitler came to power and Anti-Semitism went mainstream, the Jews were still in denial. Relatively few of them saw the "handwriting on the wall", and left Germany before the Holocaust snuffed out 6 million souls throughout Europe.

So what about Today? The Jews in America find it the most comfortable home yet in their 2000 year odyssey. Scholars that I have spoken with, who know all about the history, are outspoken about the faults of the past generations in regards to settling comfortably outside of the Holy Land, yet in the same breath they claim that America is the only exception to the rule because America was was founded on values that grant equality to all people. The Jews have finally found a proper home away form home, so to speak. Why even think of returning to Israel with all their neighborly dangers, when we are in a country that accepts us and protects us as equals.

I pointed out to them that this was the exact argument their brethren used in Germany prior to the Holocaust, in fact, this argument was used in most places where the Jews were eventually slaughtered and expelled. Doesn't history teach us anything? Apparently NOT. I am told that America is different. That kind of thing could NEVER happen in the American society.

So what does all this have to do with the Porter Stansberry predictions?

In my opinion, if in fact the predictions start materializing to any significant degree, it will portend a quantum change in the mindset and tolerance of the general "Liberal" public. History has shown that when populations fall on hard times and frustrations reign supreme, they will strike out at the most convenient "scapegoat". History has time and again shown who that "scapegoat" is.

Will we take the current Administration's seemingly purposeful destructions of the American economy as a sign from God that we are making a mistake? Will we take the current Administrations derision of American values on the International Stage, their alienation of Israel in favor of perceived Muslim goodwill, their inadvertent (or perhaps advertent) rekindling of racial tensions, as a sign from God that we are straying off our mission path? Or will we wait for the actualization of the "Porter Stansberry predictions" before we recognize the Hand of God, and hope it's not too late.

We are living in "interesting" times, when several disparate arguments converge to a single conclusion.

20 comments:

Excellent article, George! You're right on with your analysis. This administration WILL end America as we know it and there's a ton of fear out there. Sad that there are so many people who still can't see what is really going on. America has been on the wrong path for years...but this administration has it in high gear aiming for the cliff. They are lying to us, plain and simple. I also feel that the demoralization of the country will further race us to the cliff. Yes, God is watching. And I also believe that there is something coming down the line that will disrupt everything and life as we know it will come to a screeching halt. We live in scary times.

You seem like a smart guy, George...I do not write that with any guile.

Why would you bring God into a place where 'Unmitigated Truth based upon solid logic' is supposed to rule? You'd have to throw out any religious references to begin with, because based on where you come from in the world, 'God' behaves differently to 'his people'.

I would opine as a native born American we have a hard enough time handling lawbreakers - let alone singling out one particular group for persecution - especially when religion is a determining factor! Consider the hateful rhetoric (allowed but frowned upon) from certain mosques or fundamentalist churches. There will simply have to be a different basis for the persecution you fear.

I think there are a TON of reasons contributing to the demise of the United States as we know it. I myself barely recognize the country I was raised to believe in.

Will the dollar collapse? Probably not in the near-term, but it won't be a "fun" ride for anyone who has any assets.

Will the world continue to pin itself to our currency? Probably not for much longer, which means we can't print money freely without devaluing our currency much quicker. A basket of currencies makes sense on a risk mitigation basis. Diversify your assets!

Will our government collapse? Yes, yes I think so...slowly...and people won't notice until something new is in place. If you look at the way some legislation was passed over the last couple years we already have a 'soft' tyranny. Democratic liberalism is failing in the hearts and minds of our young as they are conditioned to look to the government for "more". (Gov'ts always fail at large endeavors like this.)

It is hearbreaking and scary to say history would indicate fascism is usually the next cycle to follow.

As a technologist, I had hoped destabilizing communications technologies (Internet / Twitter / mobile recording devices) would be key in preventing a repeat of history, but perhaps a cultural change is more necessary.

Cultural change will come, too. Whether or not it will be at the hand of an iron fisted ruler in the form of an extremist religious idea (or both) is the question I ask myself.

Lee,I am on a quest to determine if Stansbury goes too far, for his own gain or just general unhinged zeal for attention...but his track record of calling collapses ahead of the other market analysts is on the record. you can get a million hits if you add "scam" to any name and feed it to Google. Have you got more particulars?

I am NOT an economist but since the economy is the matrix in which we are all stuck like a mosquito in amber, I try to understand it. My affiliations incline to the liberal but I find myself increasingly disgusted by entitlement lobbies...be they the old, the poor, the farmer, the defense contractor or the billionaires. My cynicism about human nature and the shortsightedness it enforces is increasingly the light by which I judge...so take no offense at my query...really show me a sound take-down of Stansburry's arguement. In essence many commentators on the US financial trajectory have been warning that gravity would eventually overtake our leap into debt.

[his solution, which involves purchasing his currency investment advice, while obviously promoting his interests, is not obviously a wrong solution...assuming things won't be so bad that currencies of any color do not matter.]

Stansberry/Agora/Pirate lost. His company was fined, so he started another - Stansberry Research. I originally found out about Stansbury because my father-in-law was very distubed by the video and brought it to my attention.

Porter's scare tactics are a well-honed pitch.

He has strung together a great set of facts along with the 'magic bullet' (naturally his newsletter) which will keep you out of this IMPENDING FINANCIAL DOOM! In my opinion, preying on fear with this level of intensity should be a major red flag for anyone watching his video. It is a classic manipulation tactic.

A legitimate organization would offer an independently audited track record from a reputable source - FIRST - aaand without all of the high pressure tactics.

Could he actually make someone money? Yeah - IF - he gets enough people behind his low dollar stocks and those people buy from his "magic list". If he's really smart, he might even quietly charge fees to companies to 'join his network of investors'. After generating enough interest in a 'penny stock', he sells his interest. The stock takes a dive, and the investors he's convinced take it in the shorts - because this is all *emotional bubble mechanics*.

This is *not* classic "value investing", which takes time and effort and is very difficult if not impossible to do on a part-time basis. If that is your aim, learn how to do it by reading Buffet, et. al. and the many similar existing resources. (REMEMBER: Werewolves do not exist, and neither do magic bullets!)

Is he entirely wrong about his parallels or what might happen to the dollar? I don't think so. Yeah. That's freaking scary! As I mentioned in my earlier post, I believe we are definitely in for rough financial seas in the US. We're printing money like crazy and have a Congress lacking the will to tighten (our as in your and my tax-dollar-funded) purse strings.

Just so you have an idea of where I'm coming from, I work for people who have 7+ figure incomes...had hoped to get there someday myself, but prospects aren't looking great between my current trajectory when combined with this hostile market. I don't know if I'll ever be able to retire on my own steam despite my only debt being a mortgage and a 401k, but I'm trying!

Since I never know what the tide may bring...I am trying my best to prepare for whatever comes. The only way I know how is by biting the bullet and hiring an advisor/money manager who has a track record I can *see* first. That's tough in *any* market.

Given the kind of noise I'm seeing around Mr. Stansberry, he'll never make my 'short' list. Do I know for sure he's out to rip people off? No. Does he look like a smoke/fire situation to me? Absolutely. I think anybody would do well to consider very deliberately their participation with him.

Since you bring up your political leaning...I tend to be fiscally conservative but more of a social libertine...as long as you can responsibly bear the risks you take as an adult!

Entitlement programs are okay in my book...but only in very limited cases where audit controls are in place. What we have now is out of control. I share your growing cynicism. I don't want to pay for the diabetes medication for that super fat guy who buys himself a dozen donuts every morning...same goes for 'too big to fail' corporations.

Even the programs the GAO has published as ineffective or failed cannot seem to be retracted. Check out http://www.expectmore.gov and have a look at how many 'failed programs' you see. If you're not more angry, I'd be really surprised.

I realize I wrote all of that and am still not sure I answered this part of your query directly.

I believe his 'game' is manufactured zeal to whip up a frenzy for the proverbial sale he's about to offer - in classic elevator-pitch style - and it appears he has a history of selling snake oil.

Yes, there are historical precedents for the things he mentions. Those are irrefutable and well documented...which is *why* people should be concerned about our government spending, and diversifying their assets to lessen risk.

The part where he falls short is when he offers a place to hide. That is simply too good to be true. He does not control the market, and he has no independently verified track record like a Warren Buffet, or he'd be *known* like Warren Buffet.

Fear is the primary mechanic being used, not a clear track record, to get people to buy into his exclusive investment silo.

We cannot hide from what we - or the corrupt governing body we keep re-electing - have created. We must take notice, work hard, and deal with the economic realities at hand.

This is not a reason to despair, but maybe it's a reason to get angry!

If you feel you *must* buy stocks, know the odds are well against you as a non-professional in beating the market. The advice I have often gotten from people I respect (some were/are professional investors) is "buy an index fund".

Rather un-sexy, I know...but I am not an investment advisor by trade, either.

Lee.

PS - For all his hot air, I agree with Porter in one core regard: Governments fail people miserably when the economy sours. Do your best to have a plan.

Thanks for your comments. You seem to be quite passionate in your opinions, so I feel a kinship to you.

Your lead-off comments took me to task for bringing "God into a place where 'Unmitigated Truth based upon solid logic' is supposed to rule?" Well, I do have the disclaimer that I will have opinions, and will note them as such. Also, If you read my Bio, I make no secret of my religious affiliation and leanings. Finally, if you were to ask any sincerely religious person, you would be told that God is the Ultimate Unmitigated Truth. :-)

But beyond that, If you could drop me an email at unmitigatedtruth@yahoo.com, I would like to ask you something.

@George: No worries. Authors don't always write in the comment section; I didn't expect anything. You approved the comments, which means you read them first, and I appreciate your willingness to air someone else's thoughts with which you might not agree.

I've sent you an email, too.

I hadn't read your 'About' section until after I had made my original post. I firmly believe people ought to be free to worship whatever religion they choose...but based on my (albeit personal and therefore limited experience) I am not sure religion serves us in a manner which encourages critical thought.

I appreciate you putting yourself out there. I found your 'Are we in favor of slavery?' article linked from somewhere else (though original source escapes me at the moment).

This is better than the financial advice that you seek but still remain helpless. I just wanted to urge those who are worried and in dire need of consolation...Go and look for the Truth about our Creator, you may find it; it may lie with the ones whom you have deemed as your enemies. If your intent is sincere, He will guide you to it and once you find it, ACCEPT IT! Start with Middle East but the safe haven does not lie with those who commit suicide, but with the progeny of the one, whose grave is in Najaf. You may chose to search the truth or rely on your ignorance! There is no harm in getting to know Muhammad (SAW) and Ali (AS)! The least you can do is cleanse your heart...

Has anyone considered using the "Book of Proverbs" as a guidebook for financial investing? I have read it in many translations and I have used the advice to considerable profit. I have also found more financial advice throughout the Judaic-Christian teachings than the "Religious" advice. Early in my studies I read the writings (as translated into English) of most of the major Religions. The only ones that I found no moral/practical problems with are the Judaic-Christian writings, and to a lesser extent, the writings of Confucius.While I agree that America is in "Interesting Times" and that disaster always looms in the future, I also believe that Honest, Meek, and Spiritually Grounded people will out last the problems. That there will be suffering, History answers "Yes." How much suffering is entirely a matter of what mankind will allow."If we as a people will not stand up for something, then we will fall for anything." If we will educate ourselves, and read what fears that the Founders of this "Experiment in Liberty" had while forming the United States of America, perhaps we can hold onto this legacy of liberty that was bequeathed to us. If not then we and our posterity will pay for our lack of diligence. God is with those who seek Him.

If Stansberry's methods are so good, why sell advice at $49.00 a pop if he can make millions using his own methods. However, I do believe he has made some very good assumptions about where we are heading. We are very close to the tipping point of no return, not just in America, but worldwide. But people will not be persuaded to do the things necessary to bring us back from the brink. George - your suggestions as a place to start are good, but not only will the government not take such drastic measures, the people would not stand for it even if the needed drastic efforts were taken. There would be riots in the streets. You think the Wisconsin union activists are protesting. You haven't seen anything if any REAL efforts are made to contain this dire situation. We are in for some rough times, and God help us all.

For Lee, the fact that we have as a nation for along time "thrown out any references to God" has gotten us to this place where we see such a sad future. Though I understand what your communicating, it is well past time that we include God as part of a "logical" analysis and conversation. For George, thank you for the quick lesson on the Jews persecution. It makes my heart ache.

God bless us all in our future time of trial. May we all turn to the Lord for strength and remember the values he has taught us and put them to use in the days to come.

As a non-investor and one who knows very little of Wall-Street and barely able to manage my puny 401K(s) and also with very little to invest. What am I to gather from all these various comments and Stansberry lengthy commercial? Use Stansberry investment system? Use the Bible to Invest? Put everything into an IRAs? Just looking for some simple advice! Please help!

Hmmm... That's an interesting thought. How WOULD you use the Bible to invest?

But seriously, I don't think that anybody really knows. So if you are going to do any investing, don't do it with money that you can't afford to lose. Then do some research and pick a Guru to follow, invest using the advice offered, pray a little and then don't check on your investments for ten years. If after ten years you have more money than what you invested, you will have done well.

Prv. 11:25 A generous person will prosper; whoever refreshes others will be refreshed.

Prv. 11:26 People curse the one who hoards grain, but they pray God’s blessing on the one who is willing to sell.

Prv. 12:10 The righteous care for the needs of their animals, but the kindest acts of the wicked are cruel.

Plain Business sense - Take care of those who work for you.

Prv. 12:11 Those who work their land will have abundant food, but those who chase fantasies have no sense.

Work with what you have, what you know, and where you talent is. If you chase some fast talker's ideas, you will loose. Of course this means that you will have to identify what you have, what you know, and where your talent is. I.E. Take a good long look at yourself. Everywhere there are people peddling fantasies. Pyramid plans, get rich quick schemes, real estate scams, oil scams, stock scams, foreign currency scams, diamond scams... book after book of how they made it using a simple plan, and all you have to do is pick the shell with the pea under it. Use the sense that you have.

How do you tell scammers from honest advisers ...Prv. 12:13 Evildoers are trapped by their sinful talk, and so the innocent escape trouble.

Prv. 12:14 From the fruit of their lips people are filled with good things, and the work of their hands brings them reward.

Prv. 12:15 The way of fools seems right to them, but the wise listen to advice.

Prv. 12:16 Fools show their annoyance at once, but the prudent overlook an insult.

Prv. 12:26 The righteous choose their friends carefully, but the way of the wicked leads them astray.

I have enjoyed the differing comments, and not anger. After teaching 34 yrs., I retired with a salary of $49.000. Worked long hours, often on the week-ends, was abused, verbally and physically, and furnished my own supplies. If you want to fix education, LOOK at the parents. Or better still, two people producing another human being. PARENTS refers to responsible humans. There are many things tobe said about this article, many I won;t touch. NO USE. I never believed that the Jews were God's chosen people for all times. Just at that time as they needed saving. Just as we did when God send his only son to save us. I have always felt we did not need to be sending so much money to them. Or aywhere else. We have been going down hill for some time. I don;t blame this President. I think I bgecame very scared when we drove our first tanks into Iraqi. Knowing the culture and many muslims in this country I felt we would never get out. Maybe because I had two in the military. Between the two they have spent 7years there.And the money keeps going, that alone is bgreaking us. We've created an environment that simple people can't survive due to the greed, and the ones making the decisions, trying to take all, bacically it amounts to---CAPITOLISM WITHOUT MORALISM WILL SOON SELF DESTRUCT

I'm glad I researched this topic on end of america 38...as I found out this guy is a SCAM ARTIST and was found guilty of security fruad! His video which I listened to does certainly pray on the fears of the innocent. Use wisdom, trust GOD and stay with legitimate resources.

Porter Stansberry is obviously out to make a buck, but that doesn't make him wrong. He has been right about all the collapses he's predicted before this (AIG, Ford, Freddie Mae, Fannie Mac, etc). He's also been talking about the government's fiscal irresponsibility for a decade. So of course they're going to go after a whistle-blower. He WAS convicted of securities fraud but this is exactly the problem. People don't take the time to find out the actual story. They just see "convicted of securities fraud" and assume he's a criminal or a scam. He vehemently denied the accusations, citing the fact that his predictions were correct. He predicted a big jump in a company's stock prices and people bought into it. The stock prices for the company did in fact soar, but it was a month after he predicted it would happen. So some of the people panicked when it didn't happen on time and sold their stocks for big losses. Those were the only people who actually lost money on it, and the only leg the SEC had to stand on for these charges. The Washington Post and the NY Times both printed stories defending him. When the NY Times prints a story defending a fiscal conservative, you KNOW the gov't must be in the wrong.

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