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2019 NFL Draft Round One Betting Recap & Analysis

Davis Mattek April 26, 2019 8:59AM EDT

2019 NFL Draft Round One Betting Recap & Analysis

Last night’s 2019 NFL Draft first round was momentous for many reasons, not the which of least was a rather profitable night in 2019 NFL Draft betting by myself and RotoExperts readers! The ‘early look’ article that was published on RotoExperts when the Fanduel Sportsbook first offered their odds was particularly profitable though the “10 Bets I’m Making” article also featured profitable wagers. Let’s take a look at the wagers and see how we did in the 2019 NFL Draft.

First WR Taken Hollywood Brown at +700 is probably the crown jewel of my 2019 NFL Draft bets. This number did not exist for very long because that was one of the worst numbers that the Fanduel Sportsbook could have possibly hung out there. Brown was consistently mocked as the first WR taken in the draft and was one of the few skill position players even invited to Nashville. We lost some of our other FIRST props (Miles Sanders first RB, Noah Fant over Hockenson) but are still live on Darrell Henderson as second running back.

Reading the tea leaves, it was not incredibly hard to tell that Daniel Jones was going to be selected by the Giants. For betting purposes, we had to define if Dave Gettleman was going to take Jones at six or 17. Haskins was always likely to go to Washington (another winning better) so for the second quarterback selected, we took Jones at +180. While it was a disastrous decision for the Giants, it was profitable for us.

Dwayne Haskins To The Washington Redskins at +280 might have been my favorite bet though now that I am thinking about it, that is probably not a great number. In general, it is hard to place true odds on the occurrence of many of these events so that is why some sportsbooks do not even offer them. However, after repeatedly mocking Haskins to Washington in my drafts, I felt rather confident that he would find his way there at 15 and reports that Dan Snyder was enamored with him did not hurt that proposition.

There is no way around it: I did get wrecked on Noah Fant over T.J Hockenson. I lost this bet to Matt Freedman, EmpireMaker and to a few different sportsbooks. Process-wise, I don’t know if I have any major regrets. Getting +500 or +600 to get what I think is the more talented pass-catching tight end felt like a decent proposition though I should probably always remember how much NFL teams value blocking.

Record: 7-5, +13.2 units on 1 unit wager

ROI: 110%

(Edit: If betting to win a unit instead of risk a unit (e.g. betting less on the high odds picks), the results would be a 5.06 unit return and 43.85% ROI)

We hit the numbers for Josh Jacobs UNDER 25.5 and D.K Metcalf OVER 18.5. I did not check the Josh Jacobs number after I bet it but I would imagine that it was a number that was pulled off the board or had the juice swing dramatically the other way. A good chunk of mock drafts had him going to Oakland at 24 and some even to the Ravens at 22. The Metcalf over became pretty apparent towards the end of draft season as the mock drafts of those really in the know started to not include him in the first round at all.

Losing wagers on Andre Dillard as the first tackle off the board at +300, Juan Thornhill as first safety at +1100 and Greedy Williams as the first cornerback at +120. Of these, the only bet that I feel bad about is Greedy Williams. Deandre Baker, Byron Murphy, and Williams were all so closely grouped and evaluated that it didn’t make sense to bet Williams at that small of a number. Dillard and Thornhill were losing bets but after seeing Jawaan Taylor slide and Jonathan Abram go ahead of Thornhill, I don’t think of those as bad bets.

Kyler Murray to go #1 overall was probably a whale bet that I should have made. Does it ever feel good to go absolutely all in on a bet with -400 juice? Not really, and the limits were probably very low for anyone who is actually good at sports betting but there just was no chance that Kyler wasn’t going to Arizona.

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Popular Features

Final Countdown: The Best Fantasy Football Sleepers In 2019 The final countdown for the start of the 2019 NFL season has begun. We are less than two weeks from the kick-off of the season and more importantly, we are heading into the biggest fantasy football draft weekend of the year. Over the next 10 days, there…

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My Guys: Top Fantasy Football Targets For Every Draft And Format Fantasy football draft season has come and is now rapidly running away from us. Labor Day weekend is when a vast majority of the fantasy football drafts take place in the United States but I have already been through the wringer of more than…

Buffalo Bills and the Josh Allen Dilemma: A Fan’s Plea For A High Variance Offense I’ve been meaning to write this article for a while, and it’s difficult to tell where to start. I think the best place is my feelings about Josh Allen when he was first drafted. I was upset. I thought it…

Ten Bold Fantasy Football Predictions For The 2019 Fantasy Football Season Bold predictions are exactly what they sound like: bold. By having defined ideas about how the fantasy football season might go, you can actually make better fantasy teams. If you draft every team with the same vision in your projections as to how the…

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32 Things To Learn For Fantasy Football From Week Two Preseason NFL Preseason continues to matters for those who are serious about winning their fantasy football leagues. Not every team flashed their true colors in week two preseason action but there was plenty to take away from a fantasy football context. The to-the-decimal projections here…

Fantasy Football Auction Strategy In Action: The Pentathlon Experts League Fantasy football auctions are pretty drastically different than a standard snake draft. Obviously, instead of drafting players in sequential order, fantasy football managers are given a fake budget (usually $200 “dollars”) in which to complete their starting roster and bench spots. There are many different…

Final Countdown: The Biggest Fantasy Football BUSTS Of 2019 You have waded through all the articles and research. You read The Perfect Draft for your draft selection, you printed out your customizable cheat sheet using the best projections and rankings in the fantasy football industry and you are ready to absolutely crush your league using the ULTIMATE…