Comments

NFL Picks

Expert Final Thoughts - Monday Night Football Week 3 Picks

Drew Brees and host New Orleans Saints look to avoid a 0-3 start when they face Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons. Is it wiser to back the Saints here in a must-win spot or to back the Under when many are perceiving a high-scoring affair in The Big Easy? Let’s investigate and make a pick.

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans SaintsDrew Brees and the New Orleans Saints (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, 47 PS-51 PA) welcome the Atlanta Falcons (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 59 PS-59 PA) to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans for this big NFL Regular Season Week 3 showdown. Sportsbooks have New Orleans as 3-point favorites while the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened New Orleans as 4-point favorites in its Advanced Line released last Tuesday for this matchup.

As you can see across the board, the Total is 53½ everywhere while in the money Line marketplace has the Saints priced in the -145 to -160 range with the current -160 at Bookmaker—an offshore sportsbook which has a solid A+ grade here at SBR and which features a 50% Free Play Bonus (up to $300).

Monday Night Football Trends, How This Game Could Play OutThe Monday Night Football Trends here heading into NFL Week 3 show New Orleans to be 8-9 ATS as a home favorite and 14-11 home O/U with Julio Jones and Atlanta 4-5 ATS as a Road Underdog and 4/7 Away O/U. Both teams have been weak on 3rd Down so far this season with the Falcons 4-for-11 (34.8%) and the Saints just 3-for-12 (25%). With Ryan not the same QB he was a couple of seasons back and the 37-year-old Brees likely on his last legs, that 53½ looks higher than usual, especially after last week’s presumed Saints-Giants score-fest turned into a borefest and a stone-cold Under.

The L7 meetings in this series have seen 5 Unders 1 Over and a Push. The Under is 9-1-1 in the L11 Atlanta games against NFC South opponents and 22-7-1 the L30 Falcons games overall. With the Saints scared of a nightmare 0-3 start, expect a tentative and slowish start here with the home site with desperation carrying some weight in the end.