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After shrugging off a historic plunge in April employment, market participants will likely need to digest further record-setting monthly declines in core CPI inflation as well as April retail sales and industrial production. However, with financial markets seemingly numb to the bad data news, Fed Chair Powell's appearance on Wednesday may overshadow what is likely to be epic weakness in this week's economic data. [more]

It is now evident that the US economy is in the midst of the most severe contraction in the post-World War II era, one which could produce a record quarterly contraction in output in the second quarter and an unemployment rate above 17% in April. The path beyond the Q2 contraction is, however, remarkably uncertain. [more]

The US economy is experiencing unprecedented disruptions that have led to a sudden stop in activity. The result will be the most dramatic decline in GDP and sharpest rise in unemployment in the post-World War II period. [more]

There is no such thing as a free market anymore. All developed central banks have cut rates to zero and buying trillions of assets. Inflation is very low. A global liquidity trap may be in the making. In a world of international yield curve control and administered asset prices, what does that mean for FX? [more]

We’ve witnessed an immense human tragedy as the covid-19 virus has spread around the globe. Amidst the awful numbers of people who have succumbed to the disease, we’re also now witnessing an incredibly painful economic downturn. [more]

The world economy has, to all intents and purposes, ground to a halt with widespread social distancing and lock-down measures resulting in the closure of restaurants, retail, travel, sporting events and many other business. The impact on local and global growth is unlike any other period in the past as governments come up with economic rescue packages underwritten by central bank easing. [more]

Growth in luxury has been primarily driven by brand heat and newness, however millennials and Gen Z are increasingly demanding more quality and sustainability. In a recent Deutsche Bank Research consumer survey on what criteria are important for luxury spending and how they have changed over time: sustainability saw the third largest increase to importance when purchasing luxury. [more]

Covid-19 is quickly becoming a global pandemic. Outbreaks in Italy, Korea, and Iran appear to be spreading rapidly, with more than 60 countries having been directly affected and cases being reported in New York City and many other key cities around the world. [more]

In addition to absorbing a virus shock through the China export demand and supply chain channels, Europe now has to absorb a domestic outbreak. Voluntary steps to prevent the spread of the coronavirus (“social distancing”) as well as official containment measures are likely to disrupt economic activity. We expect disruption beyond northern Italy, an area which accounts for about 5% of euro area GDP. A temporary economic shock similar in scale to Hong Kong’s when SARS struck in 2003 would only need to occur in 10% of the euro area for area-wide GDP to stagnate in H1 and take the zone to the verge of technical recession. It is a highly fluid situation, but this might be a best case outcome. [more]