those are the odds for 8 exactly same ties to repeat from yesterday's test draw for the Uefa Champions League first knock-out round. And guess what? It happened.
1 hour ago the same 8 ties as yesterday's ones are drawn, including Puyol's wish AcMilan vs Barcelona, Platini's Juventus getting the weekest opponent, Celtic etc.

According to an ESPN statistician, the raw odds of getting exactly the same Last 16 draw twice in a row are about 0.00005%, which equates roughly as a ’1 in 2 million’ chance.

I wonder what is right. I don't think the 1 in 2 million is, wouldn't be far fetched for an ESPN statistician not to know that all 16 teams couldn't face each other because of seedings. But then again its math, so what the hell do I know.

If the first drawing is a given its probability is 1 or 100%, so the 2nd drawing being the same is P = 1 * 1/8! which is 1:40320.

If you want overall odds for two exact drawings you have calculate the probability for a certain outcome for the first drawing(depends of numbers of participants of certain countries) and then multiply it with 1/8!.

If the first drawing is a given its probability is 1 or 100%, so the 2nd drawing being the same is P = 1 * 1/8! which is 1:40320.

If you want overall odds for two exact drawings you have calculate the probability for a certain outcome for the first drawing(depends of numbers of participants of certain countries) and then multiply it with 1/8!.