Sunday, December 07, 2008

Likud Primaries Recommendations

Tomorrow, Monday Dec 8th marks a very important milestone in Israeli politics.

Likud members will be voting to create the "list" of who will be running on the Likud party's list in the upcoming national election.

I joined the Likud over 13 years ago through the Manhigut Yehudit faction within the Likud, out of the conviction that to lead the country, you need to be in a party that has the potential to lead. Coming from the United States, one can be a liberal Republican, a conservative Democrat, and expect that the majority party (or President from a specific party) will need to represent the entire country. In Israel, we still have a far way to go -- I recall Yitzchak Rabin's infamous comment that he is only the Prime Minister of 98% of the country -- directly implying that the settlers (and their security) were not his responsibility, nor did he view any connection to them.

The Likud should be a large party which can represent a majority of Israel's interests. Perhaps it's naive, but so should any ruling party. There should be no need for splinter self-interest groups representing "religious" or "chareidi" or "Sephardi" or "Worker" rights -- but they should be able to find a willing niche in any large party.

The smaller parties only view to influence policy, and worry about their own narrow minded self-interests, but are myopic when it comes to the "big" picture and leading the country.

With this in mind, I wanted to help be a part of leading Israel, not just "influencing".

In tomorrow's vote, you can pick 12 candidates running in the "national" slot, 2 candidates for the "immigrant" spot, and 1 candidate for a regional spot (based on your region).

Unfortunately, I can't list a total of 12 worthy candidates who would stand on their own merit -- from a political, rightwing point of view, as well as being intelligent, responsible law-makers.

Nevertheless, my list is as follows:

For the 12 "National list" candiates:

151 Moshe Feiglin. Moshe has been spearheading the Jewish leadership campaign within the Likud over the past 14 years, and I believe that this election will be a test of whether "Mahigut Yehudit" (MY) is going in the direction we hope it will.103 Yuli Edelstein

146 Leah Ness

125 Zipi Hutabeli (comments from the Ben-Bayit blogger indicate she's a Bibi yes man. Waiting for anything to substantiate this...otherwise, many indicate she's a good choice).

106 Sagiv Asulin The MY candidate. Can't say he is the inculcation of MY's ideology, but he is running with MY's support.

163 Rubi Rivlin

142 Moshe Muskal

132 Moshe Yaalon Yaalon will get in -- the point is he needs to be ranked much higher than Dan Meridor so he can help pull Bibi rightwards away from Meridor.

104 Miki Eitan Yes, he supported the Disengagement. So did Gila Gamliel who is currently being touted by the MY list. I'd prefer Eitan (who I know personally), because I would much rather see him as Justice Minister than Meridor. Again, anything than will lower Meridor's chance of being Justice Minister is important. Miki's one of the few ariticulate and intelligent parlimentarians in the Knesset, and he does realize the mistakes of the Disengagement. (And unlike others, he really cares about helping those thrown out of their homes)

I can't bring myself to list some of the others (yet). While they did vote against the Disengagement, I can't see myself voting for some of these people.

I will not vote for knee-jerk Netanyahu yes men, even if they are religious Jews living in Yesha...which is why I'm waiting for more feedback about Tzipi Hutabili.

For the 2 Olim Spot: (the following are the MY choices)

203 Asia Antov211 Shmuel Sackett

For the Yesha spot (if you are a Yesha resident) -- both of the following are excellent choices. I'm highlighting Hetzni, simply because he's the MY choice.

358 Boaz Haetzni (The MY candidate)359 Yossi Fuchs

For the Jerusalem Spot (if you are a Jerusalem resident), I fully support

355 Fred Moncharsh One of the most dedicated MY supporters and a real mover/shaker for the Likud. I know Fred personally, and endorse him in the warmest of terms.

Last week's Be'sheva had very positive article on both Ness and Hutabeli.I don't see how anyone knows what Hutabeli will be before she has even had one day to prove herself.The very fact that she approached three Rabbis (R' Yehoshua Shapira, R' Elisha Vishlitzki and R' Shmuel Eliyahu) before taking Bibi's offer is in my opinion a very positive sign.

Past history of other such people in the Likud is as clear an indication of anything which will Houtabouli will go. She was brought in by Bibi from the media to prettify the list and she will be a Bibi yes-lady. I remain very unimpressed with the fact that she went to this Rabbi or that and I have no doubt that when push comes to shove she will start mumbling stuff about there are other poskim who say that the Land of Israel can be abandoned for pikuach nefesh and she'll make a few pilgrimages to Rav Ovadia during the leadup to the implementation of Bibi's plan. Were I a likud member I would still vote for her and Leah Ness however, as there really are no other choices for the women's slots.

I love Boog Yaalon's book and his intellectual honesty, but he is probably more of a leftist than Meridor is. He will either get eaten alive by the poltical system or follow Bibi. It's very hard to see him do a Sharansky and just chuck it all on principle.

Again, nothing I have written is based on knowledge of this person or that. It's based on clear objective political analysis of the situation, the statements of the leaders of the party and the statements of the candidates. Analysis helped along by friends who have been largely correct about these things for the last 15 years (e.g. one of them who told me in 1995 that Ariel Sharon would be the one to dismantle settlements - not the Labor party - this was during the Rabin/Peres governments). Praying is nice but we have to disabuse ourselves of the notion that the Likud will be a "right-wing" government. It won't - it will be the 2003 government all over again and Bibi will have enough knesset support to implement what is intending to do - irrespective of how many pro-Yesha people are on the list. My point with Choutabouli is that many of these pro-Yesha people will capitulate (Leiter has already capitulated) and go along with it. Therefore the ONLY solution is effective grass-roots opposution to and delegitimzation of any uprooting settlements at all.

Is Shmuel Sackett running on the artzi list or on the olim list? I got a likudnik pamphlet today which shown him running on the artzi list - which will be a wasted vote. If he is going for the olim seat, he might get it

I think you need to consider that Benny Begin has a rock solid (PI) record that is hard to beat. You know you can rely on him to be honest and do what he believes is right (WYSIWYG) - even if you don't agree with him on all the issues. I don't think you can say that about some of the others you have on your list.Also I think if he is very high on the list (like first) he will be a big vote draw for some of the fence sitters who are looking to vote for clean and straight politicians.

David - I'm concerned about Begin's attitude towards Judical reform (or lack of it). My fear is that he will be Dan Meridor's sidekick when it comes to anything court related, and will attempt to undo all the good work done by the current Minister of Justice.

Jameel: I'm concerned about Begin's attitude towards Judical reform (or lack of it). My fear is that he will be Dan Meridor's sidekick when it comes to anything court related, and will attempt to undo all the good work done by the current Minister of Justice.

David: On what do you base your fears? Have you seen him comment on Judicial Activism, or related issues?

OK so Begin is for a certain degree of judicial activism - so he's not perfect. Notice - he does say, that he "does not rule out" certain changes in procedures - which provides some hope he could vote for some reforms others introduced.In any case, I really don't think his view on this issue outweighs his virtues of utmost integrity and honesty, his clear and lucid reasoning when interviewed and his solid positions on who is the enemy and who the land belongs to.

FWIW - here's my list (with a short one-liner why):Moshe Yaalon - a real leader with vision - could be PM one dayBenny Begin - as explained aboveGidon Saar - a expert parlimentarian and politician who works hardGilad Erdan - Another good young hard worker who makes us proud - responsible (as an oppostion member!) for legislation to help prevent road accidents Michael Eitan - integrity and Yuli Edelstien - manhigut yehidit the way it should be - without the arrogance ("only I'm right" attitude)Tzippy Hutubeli - need to support someone good who can beat Miri RegevRuby Rivlin - a real menchMiki Razon - gave up his deputy minister job because he went against SharonEhud YatomYossi Fuchs - has done a great deal for the cause - is a hard workerYechiel Leiter - an incredible speaker and debater

1. Yechiel Leiter may be an "incredible speaker and debater" and live in Eli.

Ariel Sharon was the favorite of the right wing as well.

Both Yechiel Leiter and Ariel Sharon have the exact idea in mind -- Unilateral Disengagement. Yechiel has proposed that 11 yishuvim be destroyed and 5000 Jews forcibly evicted from their homes. (Sound familiar?). While its laudable that Leiter wants to annex parts of Yesha unilaterally, he's missing the point. You do not start negotiating with Arabs based on, "my opening position is destroying only 11 settlements". Anyone who has taken Negotiations 101 knows that you always have an opening position of the maximum you wish. By writing off 11 settlements in advanced, its a slippery slope to where he would end up. Secondly -- the Arabs ask for 100% and they usually get it. Take Sinai for example; Egpyt said 100% or NOTHING, and they got 100%.If Israel had the moral backbone to insist on 100% as well, things would be much better.

Secondly, Leiter is 100% anti-Feiglin, and that's another reason I will not vote for him, nor support him.

My problem with David's list that that almost none of the people mentioned are ideologues. While some of them did vote against the Disengagement -- they are far from the law makers we deserve.

Yossi Fuchs is an excellent candidate, and while Boaz HaEtzni is the MY candidate, IMHO, a vote for either of them is good for the Jews.

If Yuval Shtienitz is such an excellent candidate for Defense Minister, why was he so blind to support the Disengagement?

I wrote on this blog in very clear, precise language what was going to happen after the Disengagement, and everything single thing has taken place so far (except for the rockets coming from the West Bank, because thankfully, the IDF didn't run away and there are Jews still living in Chomesh)

You think that Yuval should be Defense Minister? Based on what? If he was so brilliant to vote for the disengagement, why do you think his future judgment will be any better? Ehud Barak was Ramatkal...where did that get us? He's the current DM -- and things are GOOD?!

Tell that to the people of Kiryat Malachi who were informed yesterday by Pikud HaOref that the 20 kilometer Qassam rockets will be able to target them shortly from Gaza.

Leiter is Bibi's poodle when it comes to uprooting settlements. He is a disaster in the making. Try and keep him as far away from the MK benches as possible.

The Yesha seat is an unrealistic seat so it is a meaningless vote - especially if Bibi passes his resolution today which will allow him to create all sorts of party mergers and place people from other parties on a combined list.

Jameel - your argument against YL because of his "plan" is a very good one, and I can understand someone not voting for him because of that, but I think one needs to look at the big picture and I think in general he will be a very positive addition to the Knesset. Also, he is religious and is proud of it. In my book this is what manhigut yehudit (small letters) should be. Part of Yahadut is accepting that there are those who don't agree with you - but that doesn't disqualify them as leaders. I think his "plan" is wrong and bad (personally I like Benny Elon's plan), but that doesn't make him a leftist. The superficial attitude to brush everyone in broad strokes as either you totally agree with me or you are a leftist equivalent to Sharon, Yossi Sarid and Amos Oz is immature and shows a shallowness of thinking. Similarly, Yuval Shteinitz's support for the gerush is a big X against him, but it is not a indictment of his judgment. He strongly apposed the giving away of "Zir Philidalphi" and was always a strong supporter of significant military operations in Azza to show them who's boss. His brilliant chairmanship as head of vaadat hachutz vehabitachon is widely recognized and he demonstrated there his expertise on the subject.

The superficial attitude to brush everyone in broad strokes as either you totally agree with me or you are a leftist equivalent to Sharon, Yossi Sarid and Amos Oz is immature and shows a shallowness of thinking.

I agree with you -- its unfortunate that Mr. Leiter views Moshe Feiglin with such contempt. He refuses to shake Feiglin's hand, and shares Netanyahu's hatred of Feiglin to the point of painting him as a danger to the country.

I disqualify Leiter because he disqualifies Manhigut Yehudit to the point of refusing to even shake Feiglin's hand.

Leiter's plan for annexing Yesha is a good start, but I have a hard time swallowing his negotiation strategy and interpersonal relationship with Manhigut.

I would have an easier time voting for Shteinitz, who has one of the highest IQs in the Knesset and in general is a menstch.

I agree that the behavior of BN and friends towards MF is unacceptable. While I did not put MF on my list, I believe he has as much right as anyone else to run and their treating him like a leper is disturbing to me.

I agree with Jameel. YL's flaws are systemic (to borrow a word from BenChorin). His arrogance and shrillness date vack to his days as the spokesman for the Chevron community and certainly his days at Moetzet Yesha. This was only made worse when he became an inisde man with Bibi and Livnat.

Steinmentz is a highly intelligent mentsch and an able parliamentarian. I would sooner vote for him even though I disagree with much of his policies than for a person such as YL