Wednesday, March 20, 2013

The vernal equinox on March 20, 2013. It is that time of year again (it happens twice) when the relative angle
of Earth is perpendicular to the Sun, causing equal incoming solar
energy to the Northern and Southern hemispheres - as well as equal day
and nighttime. At 7:02 ET on March 20, 2013, Earth was at its equinox.
At 7:45 ET, the GOES-13 satellite captured this full disk image of
Earth. Click on the image for a larger view. Image Credit: NOAA.

Both
meteorological and astronomical springs have arrived.The vernal equinox marks the beginning of
spring in the Northern Hemisphere.This
is when the vertical rays of the sun are directly over the earth’s equator and
crosses the equator on its northward journey.

Funny,
it doesn’t feel like spring.Let me check
the forecast:

The 5-day forecast for March 20, 2013 for Columbia, SC. Image Credit: WLTX-TV.

Remember
those groundhog forecasts from six weeks
ago.A couple of them got it right, but
most got is wrong.Not only did spring
not come early, it does not appear to be in sight.

Friday, March 15, 2013

The
2013 annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society took place this past
January in Austin, Texas.One of the
topics was that of energy and climate.Billionaire
T. Boone Pickens spoke on Sunday evening before the annual meeting began.It was an enjoyable evening and interesting
to hear was he had to say.

T. Boone Pickens

First,
he holds a degree in geology from Oklahoma State University.Pickens said “I’m one of the few (petroleum)
geologists that agree that global warming is happening.”He agrees that we need to do something to mitigate
the effects of the warming.It is
smarter to do something to avoid the problem rather than waiting until it
happens to do anything.

However,
he went on to say that hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) would be with us for the
next 50 years.Pickens said that wind
and solar represent just 2% of the energy generation and he didn’t think that
it would become substantial until it became economically more competitive with
fossil fuels.That means a price of
about $6 for natural gas (it is just under $4 today).

Pickens
is against the idea of a carbon tax or cap & trade.However, he did not say whether he agreed
with the idea of ending fossil fuel subsidies.Tom Friedman of the New York Times has an interesting article on
attacking carbon emissions and the fiscal debt.

Monday, March 11, 2013

Comets
bright enough to be seen without the aid of a telescope or binoculars are a
rarity.This year may produce two such
events.The first is now visible in the
western sky after sunset, weather permitting.Comet PANSTARRS is actually Comet 2011 L4. Discovered in June 2011, comet 2011 L4
(PANSTARRS) bears the name of the telescopic survey that discovered it;
"Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System" which sits
atop the Haleakala volcano in Hawaii.

The
comet moved into the view of the Northern Hemisphere last week, but the best
views should be over the next two weeks.You can follow continuing updates on the progress of the comet at Sky and Telescope.Viewing the comet may still be a
challenge.

Comet C/2011 L4 PANSTARRS as seen from
Mount Dale, Western Australia. The lights on the distant horizon are
from the city of Armadale, which is southeast of Perth. Click on the image for a larger view. Image credit:
Astronomy Education Services/Gingin Observatory.

Monday, March 4, 2013

What
a difference a month can make.The
drought situation was becoming serious at the end of January as I wrote here.Yet, February saw an abundance of rainfall
creating a substantial surplus for the month.

Monthly rainfall for February in Columbia, SC. Image Credit: WLTX-TV.

Monthly observed rainfall for February, 2013, covering South Carolina as well as parts of Georgia and North Carolina. Click on the image for a larger view. Image Credit: NOAA/AHPS.

In
South Carolina the heaviest rainfall occurred over the southern half of the
state.Some parts of the low country saw
over ten inches of rain for the month.The least rainfall occurred over the north central section where
rainfall was in the three to four inch range.However, this area saw more rain in January so that the two-month total
is substantial.

A
series of storm systems moved through the Southeast pumping moisture from the
Gulf of Mexico northward.The heaviest
rainfall occurred across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, and parts of
northern Florida.The drought was center
in central Georgia which had experienced extreme to exceptional drought
conditions for over a year and a half.

Friday, March 1, 2013

The
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues outlooks for the next month in the
middle of the current month.They will
often issue an updated outlook near the last day of the current month.Usually these projections do not vary much,
but this month saw a substantial revision.

Computer
models designed to forecast daily weather are run out to 15 days, four times
each day.Most are familiar with the
7-day forecast.The CPC also issues 8-14
day outlooks for the second week of the forecast in additions to the monthly
and seasonal outlooks that they make each month.

Beginning
with the 8-14 day temperature outlook on February 21 and the one issued on
February 28, it seems that the first half of March would be colder than normal
for South Carolina as seen in the outlooks below.

The 8-14 day temperature outlooks. The first one made February 21 and the second one (right) made February 28. Click on the image for a larger view. Image Credit: NOAA/CPC.

The
reason for this projection is that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been in a
negative phase with the forecast for it to become strongly negative next
week.This usually produces a cold
outbreak for parts of the U.S.Last year
the AO was strongly positive and the U.S. saw the warmest March on record.

About Me

A professional meteorologist for over 37 years, Jim Gandy is the chief meteorologist at WLTX-TV (CBS affiliate) in Columbia, SC. He has held that position since 1999.
Jim is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and has a number of awards and recognitions for his work over the years. He is best known for his forecast of Hurricane Hugo in 1989 and his work during the tornado outbreak in South Carolina in 1994.
Jim continues to study weather and is interested in climate change which he has studied since 2005. Looking for better ways to communicate climate change, he is working with the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University and with Climate Central.
Jim recently began working with the Helmuth Lab at the University of South Carolina. Dr. Brian Helmuth is working in the area of the effects of climate change on the ecology.
All of these subjects are of vital interest to South Carolina.