As disaffected Tories try to start a leadership challenge, is David Cameron
strong enough to withstand the plotting

If the spring is when a young man’s fancy lightly turns to thoughts of love, autumn is when Conservatives start thinking of murder. David Cameron’s, to be precise.

At Westminster this week, Conservative MPs report being approached by colleagues asking them to join an effort to trigger a leadership ballot where Mr Cameron would be challenged, his authority fatally weakened by the very fact of the contest. The plotters whisper that a dozen letters have already been written to Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, and claim several more MPs stand by, pens in hand. A total of 46 would let slip the dogs of war.

The names and faces of the plotters remain shrouded in rumour and disinformation. Likewise, their final objectives are diverse.

Some have had their heads turned by Boris Johnson and his performance during the Olympics. “It comes down to leadership and authenticity. People look at Boris and they get that. I don’t think they look at David Cameron and get it,” says one backbencher.

There are other names in the frame, of course. David Davis and Liam Fox both fought Mr Cameron for the party leadership in 2005. Both have ardent supporters on the backbenches who would like to see them run again. And both have publicly challenged the Coalition on the most fundamental of issues, economic policy, calling for a more traditionally Tory approach: more cuts, less tax. That is music to the ears of Tories unhappy with the compromises of coalition.

For all the talk about Mr Johnson, Mr Davis and Mr Fox, sources say No 10’s leadership concerns are not confined to such familiar names. In Tory circles, it is whispered that Team Cameron regards Michael Gove with wariness. The Education Secretary is seen as a long-term leadership prospect, a man with a first-class political network and legions of friends in the media. “They’re watching him very closely,” says one party figure.

And such is the Tory tumult that this week’s rumour-mill churns out still more surprising names. One idea circulating on the wilder shores of Conservatism is that the best candidate to challenge Mr Cameron is none of the men named above, but the one charged with overseeing any contest: Mr Brady himself.

The 1922 chairman is popular with Right-wingers for his staunch support of grammar schools and other traditional Tory views, and respected for putting adherence to those views ahead of a frontbench career. The perfect man to topple Mr Cameron, the plotters murmur.

There is no suggestion that Mr Brady has behaved anything but properly, but the very fact that his name is being whispered is a vivid reminder that the history of the Conservative Party in Parliament is written in treasons, stratagems and spoils. So are the Tory wars about to break out again? It has, after all, been almost a decade since the party last indulged its penchant for regicide. Past time for a fresh taste of leader’s blood?

Perhaps, but so far only in the imagination of a handful of dissidents. The majority of Conservatives believe Mr Cameron is secure and that he will lead the party into the next general election. Private comments about the would-be assassins range from “mad” and “nutters” to the downright unprintable. Loyal ministers accuse backbenchers of panic and hysteria, highlighting Nadine Dorries’s lurid call for a “kill Cameron strategy”. Whips point out that last week’s reshuffle ended careers and dashed hopes: in politics, disappointment breeds disloyalty.

These are all fair points. But none of this means that all is well and Mr Cameron can sail serenely into the party conference season. Far from it: hence the Prime Minister’s unusual decision to make a direct appeal for party unity at the Carlton Club dinner this week.

Mr Cameron is as aware as any Conservative of his sin: he failed to deliver a Commons majority in 2010. No one believes his party would tolerate another such disappointment next time. The next election is less than three years away, and potentially much less. What is the PM going to do to win the majority needed to save many of his MPs’ seats and his own job? Many Tories, ministers, backbenchers and advisers feel that the Prime Minister’s exam paper here looks ominously blank.

Some still give him the benefit of the doubt, confident his natural talent and brio will allow him to dash off a first-class performance at the 11th hour with little preparation. But many colleagues are all too keen to fill what they perceive as a vacuum with their own ideas.

Mr Davis and Dr Fox this week helped launch Conservative Voice, a new group that wants the party to focus on issues including shrinking the state, promoting social mobility and rebalancing the relationship with the European Union. Don Porter, a founder, says the Tories must do much more to win back voters from the UK Independence Party.

The emphasis on issues such as Europe is clearly at odds with the original modernising approach of Mr Cameron, who once insisted his party cannot win by “banging on about Europe” and dismissed Ukip. Conservative Voice insists it is loyal to the leadership, but its members admit to exasperation with the approach to politics taken by Mr Cameron’s team. “We’re fed up with focus groups and polls and strategies that try to chop voters up into groups and feed them all their own messages. We have to get back to the values that all Conservatives believe in,” says one.

On the contrary, retort those who remain true to the Cameroon mission. “Modernisation is not over,” says one minister. “We may reflect some of the more traditional Conservative values, but the basic analysis of how the party wins and why it loses is still there. We still have to look and sound like Britain, we still have to talk about public services instead of Europe. Otherwise, we’ve had it.”

Contrast that analysis with that of another minister, who argues that the economic crisis has “changed the rules of the game” and killed the strategy the PM adopted from 2005. Modernisation is dead, he suggests: “Other than the economy, there are two things that we must be seen to master in order to get the majority: immigration and welfare. That’s it.”

A source familiar with No 10 says the Prime Minister and his inner circle are struggling with what amounts to a political identity crisis. Mr Cameron originally planned to focus his personal image on “soft” issues such as his “mission” to build the Big Society, while delegating “hard” subjects such as the economy to others. The scale of the economic challenge shattered such notions. “Now that’s gone, they still haven’t worked out what he’s for, what he does. Just 'being Prime Minister’ isn’t enough of an answer,” the source says.

For all the scoffing at plots and outward shows of confidence, No 10 is well aware of the need to quieten the restive party. Last week’s reshuffle was sold as a major shift to the Right, with modest success. Discussions over the PM’s conference speech next month have included consideration of a “major statement of Euroscepticism”. Eyecatching pledges on criminal justice are planned. Tory opponents of wind farms are expecting great things of the new ministerial team.

In Whitehall, ministers have been told to focus on retail-friendly announcements that improve the electorate’s standard of living. Voters, especially C1 and C2 women – the lower middle-class and skilled working class – are a focus. Bread-and-butter issues will deliver the marginal seats around the M25, the Midlands and the north-west that eluded the Tories in 2010, it is promised.

Still, a third minister says the choice and implementation of policies is subordinate to the simple job of leadership.

“Politically and economically, this is a time of extraordinary uncertainty. People are nervous, and what they want is reassurance from a strong leader who convinces them he has a plan and will see it through,” he says.

Implicit in that is the admission that as things stand, Mr Cameron is not providing that reassurance. Unless and until he does so, the whispers in his party will continue.