Further Evidences for the Weakening Relationship of Indian Rainfall and ENSO over India

Abstract

Numerous efforts have been made in the past to understand the effect of Indian monsoon and El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the Indian continent. Various approaches and analysis of datasets covering the last 140 years have shown a dominantly inverse relationship between the ENSO and Indian rainfall. But this dominant coupling between the ENSO and Indian rainfall has been observed to weaken in recent decades. In the present paper, we have analyzed rainfall trend over the Indian subcontinent and its relation with ENSO. Our results indicate a stronger circulation pattern over the Indian region in last two decades. We have also found that the effect of ENSO has increased in recent years but has failed to influence the Indian rainfall because of the stronger circulation pattern prevailing over India during this time.