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I've often pondered the length of this cyclical upswing (2009-)
relative to the previous (2003-2007). Here's what the
S&P 500 performance for the two periods compared side-by-side
looks like:

If this cycle will not last longer than the previous, then we
should be at least be looking into what mid-cycle indications
will trigger when it is time to be looking for the end.
Here is the Philly composition of Leading Economic Indicators:

We can see that the PMI showed signs of slowing growth more than
a year before, and Real Retail Sales peaked 2 years before the
recession officially began in 2008.

How do these things look today?

To start, it looks like I'm not the only one looking at ISM
PMI...! This value has recently come off its multi-decade
high from several months ago, but is still certainly not flashing
the same kind of warning sign that it did in 2006. Real
Retail Sales also seems to be showing little signs of stress.

And, of course, let's not forget the yield curve:

A strong predictor of recession is when the 3mo/10y spread
decreases below 1%. At present, it is hovering around 3%,
and that is not indicative that the bond market is piling into
the long-end, anticipating a decline in rates.

The question, of course, is: has ZIRP broken the
yield-curve as a predictor of recessions due to the
zero-boundary?

I certainly think the argument could be made that the 10y could
certainly sink lower -- the Japanese 10y is close to 1% (1.08% as
of Friday). Perhaps the largest differentiating factor
between the Japanese & American deflation is US is the fact
that, despite household deleveraging, the corporate borrowing has
increased:

Were this final bastion of hope away from balance sheet recession
crumble, the evaporating demand for money would crush yields
further. So I think the yield curve is still a valid
forecasting tool.