How Springfield's population will look in half a century

Yolanda Lorge, president of Grupo Latinoamericano, introduces the 25th anniversary celebration of the group at the Plaster Student Union at Missouri State University on Saturday.(Photo: Nathan Papes/News-Leader)Buy Photo

In 1990, Greene County's rate of diversity was largely on par with Arkansas' Benton and Washington counties, which include Springdale, Bentonville and Fayetteville. The USA Today Diversity Index — the chance that any two people chosen randomly from a particular area will have a different race or ethnicity — for Greene County that year was 8, while it was 7 for Benton and 10 for Washington. That's based on a scale of 100, with higher numbers indicating a more diverse population.

In the last two decades, however, the two Arkansas counties have attracted a diverse population at a much faster rate than Springfield and the surrounding area. Today, Greene County has a Diversity Index of 20, while Benton and Washington counties are at 40 and 43, respectively — on par with where projections show Springfield will be in 45 years.

In the case of all three counties, the Hispanic community is primarily responsible for fueling these changes.

And while the community faces challenges as it continues to grow — including the struggle to overcome stereotypes — Lorge also sees opportunities as the children of previous waves of immigrants enter adulthood.

As a whole, Missouri — like every single state in the nation — is expected to get more diverse in the coming decades. The state had a Diversity Index of 33 in 2010; by 2060, that's forecast to increase to 52.

Southwest Missouri counties are more homogenous than the state as a whole. And even in 45 years, four out of five Springfield residents are expected to be white. Still, a shift is forecast.

Greene County, which currently has a Diversity Index of 20, is expected to increase to 41 by 2060. To the south, Christian County — which had an index of 3 in 1990 — is forecast to increase from 11 in 2010 to 25 in 2060. To the west, Lawrence County — 4 in 1990 — is slated to jump from 18 in 2010 to 43 in 2060. And to the north, Polk County — which also had an index of 4 in 1990 — is expected to double between 2010 and 2060, from 10 to 20.

Other area counties aren't expected to see much change. Dade County — 5 in 1990 — was a 10 in 2010, and is forecast to be an 11 in 2060. Dallas County — 3 in 1990 — is expected to go from 9 to 12.

Arkansas' Benton and Washington counties, meanwhile, will continue to stay ahead of Greene County, reaching an index of 59 and 64, respectively, by 2060.

In 2010, Greene County's population was approximately 275,000 — and 91 percent white. Over the next 50 years, the county's population is forecast to increase by about 30 percent, to just shy of 359,000 — 80 percent white.

Greene County's Native American population and Asian populations — about 1,850 and 4,500 in 2010, respectively — are both expected to barely grow in the coming decades, actually becoming a smaller percentage of the overall population than they are today. The black population is expected to increase 43 percent, from about 7,900 in 2010 to about 11,300 in 2060.

But that growth pales in comparison to the forecast for the Hispanic population. In 2010, it was just marginally larger than the black population — 8,200 individuals. By 2060, it's expected to almost triple in size by 2060, to more than 23,200.

Lorge moved to the United States in 1971 after meeting her husband – a Pennsylvania native of European ancestry – while he was serving as a missionary in Mexico. It was "quite an adjustment in all senses of the word," she said — thanks to her husband's work as an electrical lineman, they lived in 37 different places over the next 15 years.

In 1986, they moved from Kansas City to Springfield, and decided to stay. At that time, most Hispanics in the area were fairly well-established. In fact, what became Groupo Latinoamericano started as something of a social club, Lorge said.

But things were changing.

"About that time a new wave of immigrants started coming," Lorge said, attributing it to jobs available in the construction industry.

The same wave was happening in northwest Arkansas, Lorge said, just on a larger scale — driven by major employers like Tyson and Walmart.

The influx of people who didn't know English or the local legal system led the founders of Grupo Latinoamericano to pivot to become more of a service organization. Today, in addition to hosting cultural events — such as last Saturday's 25th anniversary celebration — the group helps Hispanics with the everyday issues associated with moving to a new country.

Lorge is quick to note that there is diversity within the Hispanic label. Mexicans are the most common Hispanics in the United States, she said, for several reasons. Geographically, Mexico is the country closest to the United States. Historically, several states actually used to be part of Mexico. And Mexico has a much larger population than other Hispanic nations.

Mexicans are the most common Hispanics in Springfield too, Lorge said, although all nationalities are represented. But things can vary by town. In Carthage, she said, Guatemalans are most common. As with any immigrant population, there are the "pioneers" who initially move to an area, and are then followed by friends and relatives.

While Hispanic may be a broad description, there are commonalities between the nationalities, Lorge said — notably the Spanish language, and emphasis on family and spirituality. In north Springfield, for example, Sacred Heart Catholic Church has two Hispanic services on Sundays.

"Those things are very common — no matter where you come from or your class," Lorge said.

Although not Hispanic himself, Mahmoud Salem — who was born in Egypt — now caters to the demographic. In 1997, a recent transplant to Springfield, he found himself traveling to Kansas City or St. Louis to buy Arabic products, and decided to open his own store here. The local Arabic population wasn't that large, so he added Hispanic products and called the place Latino Market.

Today, flags line the front window of the store in the 1600 block of East St. Louis Street, and signs featuring the word "Welcome" in 11 languages hang by the cash register. The shelves are lined with Goya products; he believes he's the only place in town that offers Halal meat.

"What I try to bring is all the stuff they cannot find in other groceries," Salem said in a Friday interview.

Salem said he thinks his Hispanic customers like shopping where someone speaks their language — he speaks English, Spanish and French — and noted that his offerings extend beyond food.

Lorge laid out several challenges facing local members of the Hispanic community. There's the need to learn a new language and acclimate to a new area, while still ensuring you don't lose your identity — and often battling homesickness. Communication between schools and Hispanic parents can be a challenge, with two working parents and limited English spoken at home.

Springfield's "Field Guide 2030" — which was endorsed by City Council earlier this year and discusses long-term priorities for the city and county — noted that the Hispanic population saw the largest growth locally, 76.7 percent, during the first decade of the new millennium.

In the "Global Perspectives and Diversity" chapter, the field guide laid out five major goals in a discussion of how to respond to increasing diversity and move toward "becoming a more welcoming, inclusive community."

• To pass a resolution of intent that emphasizes and promotes inclusion for the City of Springfield and Greene County

• Create an environment that retains college graduates and young professionals

• Conduct a community assessment throughout the City of Springfield to identify existing multicultural activities, coordinate, and bring awareness to diverse activities in the community

• Bring cohesiveness and some additional resources to the many ongoing, but fragmented, efforts aiming to promote the attractiveness and hospitality of Springfield to present and potential residents of diverse backgrounds

• Have a major event that promotes diversity in Springfield that attracts Springfieldians and people outside of the community to Springfield

Because many Hispanics are immigrants, they also battle stereotypes — or "misconceptions," as Lorge put it. Locals complain of illegal immigrants stealing jobs and taking advantage of welfare benefits.

But while illegal immigrants are eligible for public schools and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children — more commonly known as WIC — they're not getting food stamps, unemployment or Medicaid, Lorge said. Those that use fake or expired Social Security numbers may end up paying into Social Security while not benefiting from it.

"That's why they work so hard," Lorge said. "If they're not working, they're not going to eat ... They are the working class, they're not leeches."

Lorge hopes the future will naturally counteract those complaints. Some of the Hispanics who moved to Springfield around the time Lorge did and started working in construction now have their own companies. The children born around that time have graduated high school; some have graduated college, and moved away; the population is gradually getting better educated.

"It looks better and better," Lorge said.

What is the Diversity Index?

The USA TODAY Diversity Index gives the chance that any two people chosen randomly from a particular area will be different by race and ethnicity. The index is on a scale from 0 to 100, with a higher number indicating a more diverse population — an index of 50, in other words, means a 50 percent chance that two random residents of an area would be of a different race.

For current and past years, the index is compiled — on a state and county basis — using U.S. Census Bureau data. The latest projections for future years were calculated by ProximityOne, a Virginia-based demographic data firm.

The Diversity Index uses the current federal guidelines for race and ethnicity. On the 2010 census, racial categories included white, black, American Indian/Native Alaskan, Asian and Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander. Respondents could indicate Hispanic ethnicity on a separate question.

Beginning with the 2000 census, people were allowed to claim more than one race — and that category is expected to grow exponentially locally in the next 50 years. The Diversity Index counts individuals who claim more than one race as diverse by default.