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First, though my spouse has been out of the military "biz" for almost two years now, but I can tell you with 100 percent certainty pulling our bombers off Guam was not a "response" to the Chinese move here. When we pull out a bunch of forces like this it is something that takes many months and sometimes years in the planning. The timing is just coincidence (and there's always something to point to as "the real reason" for this or that).

No. There's nothing to be gained with a war with China. And everything to be lost. I'm very very very (did I say very?) glad we are finally taking the Chinese threat seriously. Because it wasn't so long ago the entire DOD was using Chinese made computers and blackberries pretty much exclusively. I mentioned this and was told I was naive (see my quote below).

QUOTE

If China moved to annex Taiwan, could the US prevent them?

We could make it uncomfortable for China, but not much more than that. On this, nothing really has changed in the past few decades. The war we will have with China (if it comes to that) will be an economic one.

Or over resources. We both need resources to fuel our economy, and there are limited quantities of them. This is what led Japan to war previously, and the situation hasn't changed that much.

I doubt that two nuclear weapons carrying states will go to war over resources. Egypt and Ethiopia might.

They'll be careful about it, yes...but if we needed the resources to sustain our economy, as did China...that's exactly what wars are fought over. It's precisely why Japan fought WWII. We're fighting skirmishes already...the islands China is building...they were acquiring sole access to oil reserves...they've been buying up mineral reserves, etc etc. I would see it as another cold war, engaging proxies etc. I think an extension of the economic war you mentioned, with this including access to resources. Our ability to produce tertiary oil extends the time frame out...but eventually there will be fewer vital resources than each of us needs. We had almost reached that point on oil before implementing the tertiary recovery methods (oil shale, water injection, etc).

Which is why the US needed to, and China has been, building up its armed forces and continued development of its military technology. If the other side knows they'd lose a war, they're a lot less likely to engage in it...and it also gives more projected force in 'negotiations' over those resources, Taiwan, etc. A lot like two bullies pushing each other in a parking lot, but never actually fighting...and a bully doesn't usually pick fights he knows he'd lose. I think (maybe you would know more precisely) that while China has been busy copying lots of military technology, none of it has ever really been used or proven, and we'd have a distinct advantage for now. Notice the failure rates on the COVID equipment/tests from China, as an example. Not military technology, but I think a good example of where their military technology might be. We should make sure we keep it that way.

This is also why I think establishing good trade relations, and good relations in general, with China is important. This can avoid being too contentious if we have good relations.

This is also why I think establishing good trade relations, and good relations in general, with China is important.

Provided that the "good relations" are genuinely two-way, and not just Beijing taking advantage of our naivete to cause more trouble. I definitely think it wasn't a good idea to let ourselves become so dependent on them for things like pharmaceuticals and rare earths.

And this relates to moif's debate question. I'm pretty sure (though undoubtedly Mrs. Pigpen could correct me if I'm wrong on this) that we could prevail against China in a straight-up military-to-military confrontation. But don't depend on them to exactly oblige us with a set-piece battle. Their idea of what constitutes the "theater of war" is, let's just say, a bit on the cosmopolitan side. I think it could yet come as a surprise many Americans who still have a natural tendency to reflexively assume at least a certain modicum of good faith from adversaries.

This is something that our entire society needs to be prepared for, not just the decisionmakers at the top.

I'm not convinced that the USA could actually prevail against China in a old fashioned, open confrontation, since the distances involved and the sheer size of China means they'd probably just grab Taiwan and defend what they'd taken, whilst using other non-military means to strike back.

I'm not sure that the weight of American non-nuclear fire power would be enough to really hurt China.

As Mrs P said, I think war as we've come to know it, is impossible and China will/is already waging a clandestine war aginst the western nations, using untraditional methods. I'm concerned that the USA is already losing, even despite Trump's probable next term. I'm afraid the damage done to the USA by exporting manufacture to China has weakened us all. The EU's economy is predicted to fall by twice as much as it did in 2009 and thats not a happy prospect for any one. If Covid-19 resurfaces in the near future, its going to be catastrophic.

In an all out war, I think the US would prevail against anyone, due to superior technology, mainly airpower. China has planes that are supposedly the same generation as many of ours, but none of them have been tested in combat. I suspect they will discover multiple issues and failings...we have developed our technology over decades of research and refinement, with experience gained in multiple wars. I think we also have vastly superior command and control.

The problem though is will a nuclear power just decide to lose an all out war? I would doubt it. Hence, such a war won't occur. It's more about localized skirmishes, where power projection often determines the outcome. I think if it came to it we'd win most of those, outside of mainland China, because of our VASTLY superior navy.

Maybe China's military actually is more advanced. But what we saw with the COVID tests and ventilators they shipped out doesn't indicate much faith in that. They failed at a very high rate. Bad enough in a pandemic, really fatal in an actual war. And we are working on technology which greatly exceeds what we have currently: laser weapons and rail guns, as an example.

QUOTE(Blackstone)

Provided that the "good relations" are genuinely two-way, and not just Beijing taking advantage of our naivete to cause more trouble. I definitely think it wasn't a good idea to let ourselves become so dependent on them for things like pharmaceuticals and rare earths.

Absolutely. We were in a bad spot of not only having bad trade deals, but also not having the greatest of relations, with many of our partners. We seem to be working towards more of a win win on both now, which is good.

In an all out war, I think the US would prevail against anyone, due to superior technology, mainly airpower. China has planes that are supposedly the same generation as many of ours, but none of them have been tested in combat. I suspect they will discover multiple issues and failings...we have developed our technology over decades of research and refinement, with experience gained in multiple wars. I think we also have vastly superior command and control.

The problem though is will a nuclear power just decide to lose an all out war? I would doubt it. Hence, such a war won't occur. It's more about localized skirmishes, where power projection often determines the outcome. I think if it came to it we'd win most of those, outside of mainland China, because of our VASTLY superior navy.

Maybe China's military actually is more advanced. But what we saw with the COVID tests and ventilators they shipped out doesn't indicate much faith in that. They failed at a very high rate. Bad enough in a pandemic, really fatal in an actual war. And we are working on technology which greatly exceeds what we have currently: laser weapons and rail guns, as an example.

QUOTE(Blackstone)

Provided that the "good relations" are genuinely two-way, and not just Beijing taking advantage of our naivete to cause more trouble. I definitely think it wasn't a good idea to let ourselves become so dependent on them for things like pharmaceuticals and rare earths.

Absolutely. We were in a bad spot of not only having bad trade deals, but also not having the greatest of relations, with many of our partners. We seem to be working towards more of a win win on both now, which is good.

Not a chance.

I spent half of 2019 in Shanghai, China, a little time in Zhanjiang, and a fair amount in Suzhou. I got to know the Chinese people very well. Collectively, they are toddlers. The nicest people ever, but they don't think for themselves. Many of the young people have learned to speak english and at least attempt to learn stuff not fed to them by the government. They don't have social media (except for WhatsApp - they use it to communicate and as a replacement for cash. Everything is purchased via bar code) and it's really tough to get a VPN working that will connect them with the rest of the world. But you know what? They love their country. The entire population of the United States is basically a rounding error compared to theirs. If they mobilized, they could overrun any country easily. If the government told the Chinese people that their very survival depended on the elimination of another country, they would accept that "truth" and defend their country with no questions asked.

But that's not the reason we won't go to war with them. The reason we'll never go to war with them is nobody is willing to pay $8000 for a smartphone.

In an all out war, I think the US would prevail against anyone, due to superior technology, mainly airpower. China has planes that are supposedly the same generation as many of ours, but none of them have been tested in combat. I suspect they will discover multiple issues and failings...we have developed our technology over decades of research and refinement, with experience gained in multiple wars. I think we also have vastly superior command and control.

The problem though is will a nuclear power just decide to lose an all out war? I would doubt it. Hence, such a war won't occur. It's more about localized skirmishes, where power projection often determines the outcome. I think if it came to it we'd win most of those, outside of mainland China, because of our VASTLY superior navy.

Do you know who Tim Pool is?

He presents himself as an independent journalist, though he seems more like a commentator to me. He recently posted a video in which he reported that US Navy war games indicate China would win any and all conflicts in the pacific. Especially as the next decade unfolds.

I'm not competent enough to predict the future, but I do suspect that unless something changes drastically, unilateral American military dominance is coming to an end.

Editted to add:

QUOTE(DaytonRocker @ May 15 2020, 02:19 PM)

But that's not the reason we won't go to war with them. The reason we'll never go to war with them is nobody is willing to pay $8000 for a smartphone.

I live happily enough with my old four year old smart phone. Perhaps people would benefit if they learned to appreciate what they have instead of always yearning for yet another new gadget?

In January, 124 ROK military were quarantined after returning from a field training in China, due to the covid virus.That means the South Korean military was doing military training exercises with the Chinese military. Who do you suppose the enemy is in those exercises? Probably not Godzilla.