Recent Moves By Kyrgyzstan Indicate Shift From West

By ILAN GREENBERG

Published: August 16, 2006

A series of recent incidents, including the killing last week of a popular religious leader by government security forces in this restive southern border town, has many here calling into question the pro-Western orientation of Kyrgyzstan.

Expectations that the Central Asian nation would lead its neighbors toward a pro-Western -- and especially pro-American -- alignment crested after it ousted its president in March 2005. The so-called Tulip Revolution was part of a wave of ''colored revolutions'' that overthrew leaders aligned with Russia in Georgia and Ukraine and swept into power pro-Western administrations.

But in July, Kyrgyzstan expelled two American envoys, the first expulsion of American diplomats from any Central Asian country. The United States responded by ejecting two Kyrgyz diplomats.

Last week, the Kyrgyz government repatriated five Uzbeks with United Nations-sanctioned refugee status whom Uzbekistan's authoritarian government wanted to try in connection with an uprising last year in the Uzbek city of Andijon, in which hundreds of people were killed by government security forces. The decision was denounced by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees as a ''shocking'' violation of Kyrgyzstan's international commitments.

On Aug. 6, Kyrgyz and Uzbek security forces killed an outspoken imam, Rafiq Qori Kamalov, in his car as he drove down a street in the city of Osh, near the Uzbek border. He and two people with him were accused by the government of being members of a shadowy British-based organization called Hizb ut-Tahrir, which is banned by most Central Asian countries. The organization advocates a caliphate, or a unified Islamic government, over all of Central Asia, but says it is nonviolent.

A government spokesman, acknowledging the killings, said munitions and a map scrawled with the word ''jihad'' were found in the vehicle.

To experts on the region, the events seemed to be part of a deliberate policy shift by the Kyrgyz government.

Traditionally, small Central Asian nations like Kyrgyzstan have tended to balance binational relationships rather than cast their lot with one nation over another. But increasingly, say Western diplomats and political analysts here, Kyrgyzstan seems to be embracing Russia and Uzbekistan at the expense of its relationship with the United States.

''The Kyrgyz aren't acting in as haphazard a way as it looks,'' said Michael Hall, Central Asia project director for the International Crisis Group, an independent policy analysis group. ''Given the demands and conditions from the United States, the Kyrgyz are simply thinking it is more in their interest to play along with Russia and Uzbekistan, neighbors that can make life difficult for Kyrgyzstan in the long term.''

Here in this border area dominated by ethnic Uzbeks, anti-government hostility runs deep, and a traditional, politically engaged Islam is an increasingly powerful force. But elsewhere in the country, admiration for the government of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev seems to be growing, while the American presence continues to dim.

''There's unhappiness with the economic situation, especially in the south,'' said a political analyst with a Western-backed civil society organization. ''But while the Kyrgyz may want a government that is more progressive and is doing more, things are also stable and people seem to have accepted by and large that Bakiyev is in charge.'' The analyst asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to the news media.

Like its Central Asian neighbors, Kyrgyzstan is a country with a Sunni Muslim majority whose government discourages religious fervor and has a history of clamping down on organizations that espouse a mixing of politics and Islam.

Kyrgyzstan has been hesitant in the past to collaborate with Uzbekistan, which has shown little regard for human rights in its pursuit of what it labels Muslim militants. ''What's new this week is the cooperation between the Kyrgyz and Uzbek security forces,'' said the political analyst.