For those who may have missed this weeks sharp price decline, I've decided to share Tuesday's chat transcripts with the rest of the Technical Watch members and other visitors to the site. If you're continuing to find it challenging to trade in the current environment, don't you owe it to yourself to find out what you may be missing in your timing that will increase your likelihood of trading success? Subscription fees for the chats and the weekly breadth charts are quite nominal in relation to the wealth of information and value that you'll receive plus you have the ability to go month to month as you see fit. Follow the link to subscribe today - http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm2015-08-18 15:59:58 fib1618: good day2015-08-18 16:00:01 fib1618: how is everyone?2015-08-18 16:00:28 rite01: Hanging in there and you?2015-08-18 16:02:44 fib1618: doing fine2015-08-18 16:02:51 fib1618: thanks for asking2015-08-18 16:03:07 fib1618: so do you think both buyers and sellers are pretty much frustrated by now?2015-08-18 16:03:32 rite01: Yes2015-08-18 16:04:02 fib1618: so the evil plan is working, huh? 2015-08-18 16:04:21 rite01: all that needs little more down side to put in a bottom in the MCO's etc...2015-08-18 16:06:15 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??2015-08-18 16:06:48 rite01: Last two weeks or so we've had several higher MCO readings in Index's that are not confirmed by price... What's your take?2015-08-18 16:07:43 fib1618: do you have a specific index we can refer to?2015-08-18 16:07:50 rite01: In NYA NASDAQ and S&P 5002015-08-18 16:08:24 rite01: Yesterdays to last Monday numbers2015-08-18 16:08:42 fib1618: when we get these higher readings during consolidations2015-08-18 16:09:03 fib1618: these tell us that most, if not all, of the major selling is behind us2015-08-18 16:09:27 fib1618: and that the price levels seen before these pops to the upside provide pattern support for prices2015-08-18 16:09:59 fib1618: so why aren't prices following the lead of this breadth leadership?2015-08-18 16:10:11 fib1618: and that answer comes with the position of the MCSUM's2015-08-18 16:10:31 fib1618: as the intermediate term TREND of money flow remains negative at this time2015-08-18 16:10:49 fib1618: so the MCO is telling us that the trading ranges are likely to hold2015-08-18 16:11:18 fib1618: but there still hasn't been enough in the way of conviction as yet to cancel our downside price targets at this time2015-08-18 16:11:47 fib1618: for example2015-08-18 16:11:52 rite01: OK the SPX is MCSUM positive yet...2015-08-18 16:12:13 fib1618: we've talked about how it would take a reading of over +25 for prices to cancel their downside targets in the NYSE2015-08-18 16:12:22 fib1618: let me look at the chart2015-08-18 16:12:48 fib1618: and we see that we had a reading of +27 on Monday2015-08-18 16:12:57 fib1618: with, again, no follow through2015-08-18 16:13:07 fib1618: so back to or toward the zero line we go to regroup2015-08-18 16:13:32 fib1618: it's one thing to take out your enemy in segments2015-08-18 16:13:39 fib1618: but to make a real difference2015-08-18 16:13:57 fib1618: you have to take out a larger portion of the battalion2015-08-18 16:14:23 fib1618: or the troops "plug the hole" as it were2015-08-18 16:14:32 fib1618: sort of like a football game2015-08-18 16:14:42 fib1618: and the running back breaks through the line of scrimmage2015-08-18 16:15:06 fib1618: but doesn't get very far because this same hole is quickly filled with defenders2015-08-18 16:15:14 fib1618: break a larger hole2015-08-18 16:15:21 fib1618: and you get more yardage2015-08-18 16:15:23 fib1618: or in this case2015-08-18 16:16:08 fib1618: better gains against the bearish defensive backfield2015-08-18 16:16:29 fib1618: so these are more like "chip away" moves2015-08-18 16:16:34 rite01: thanks makes sense2015-08-18 16:16:52 fib1618: as the buyers begin to break the defenses created by their time in which they had control2015-08-18 16:17:31 fib1618: the best sporting analogy for the markets is football2015-08-18 16:17:45 fib1618: as both sides fight each other to gain control of the action2015-08-18 16:17:58 fib1618: and where the 50 yard line is the MCSUM zero line2015-08-18 16:18:49 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started2015-08-18 16:19:20 fib1618: after breaking above the +25 level on Monday2015-08-18 16:19:39 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO snapped back toward this same area of natural support today2015-08-18 16:19:52 fib1618: and even moved back below it2015-08-18 16:19:55 fib1618: because of this2015-08-18 16:20:58 fib1618: it's a pretty good bet that the move on Monday was more emotional, as it was subjective, as it relates to where enough money flow was moving back into this basket of issues where a change in direction would be likely2015-08-18 16:21:29 fib1618: for now2015-08-18 16:21:49 fib1618: all we have is a nice series of bottoms above bottoms controlling the CO MCO pattern2015-08-18 16:21:55 fib1618: with no divergence noted2015-08-18 16:22:23 fib1618: this would then fit within the idea of the market going about its business in creating a textural low2015-08-18 16:22:58 fib1618: but where some additional backing and filling would still be needed in order for this foundation to be called "cured"2015-08-18 16:23:13 fib1618: looking at the components2015-08-18 16:23:27 fib1618: and we see that the 10% Trend did make it above its zero line on Monday2015-08-18 16:23:32 fib1618: but the 5% Trend did not2015-08-18 16:23:40 fib1618: because of this then2015-08-18 16:23:51 fib1618: we can only say that the market is in a corrective sequence2015-08-18 16:24:06 fib1618: and not the start of anything in which prices can begin to trend higher2015-08-18 16:24:32 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart2015-08-18 16:24:52 fib1618: and we see that we are now close to closing our MCSUM gap resistance area2015-08-18 16:25:00 fib1618: where if the buyers can accomplish this2015-08-18 16:25:26 fib1618: this would then lower the odds of our meeting any further downside price targets that were previously generated2015-08-18 16:25:53 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor2015-08-18 16:26:32 fib1618: and we see that yesterday's thrust in the MCO provided the necessary strength for the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM to gap above its declining tops line that was controlling the pattern2015-08-18 16:26:47 fib1618: so...taken together then2015-08-18 16:27:04 fib1618: if we do fully close the MCSUM gap zone near term2015-08-18 16:27:27 fib1618: it would then be less likely for our looking for a challenge of the February lows in the NYA2015-08-18 16:27:30 fib1618: then again2015-08-18 16:27:38 fib1618: this is only the Common Only stocks basket2015-08-18 16:27:43 rite01: In order to have a divergent MCO and price the components have to be over the zero line?2015-08-18 16:27:46 fib1618: so let's see if the Composite agrees2015-08-18 16:28:04 fib1618: divergence is always between a momentum oscillator and price2015-08-18 16:28:11 fib1618: in this case2015-08-18 16:28:20 fib1618: the MCO and price on a short term basis2015-08-18 16:28:30 fib1618: the MCSUM and price on an intermediate term basis2015-08-18 16:28:40 fib1618: the components that make up the MCO2015-08-18 16:28:44 rite01: right2015-08-18 16:29:24 fib1618: only tell us if there enough energy to maintain any divergent triggers if they are hit2015-08-18 16:29:34 fib1618: keep it simple2015-08-18 16:29:40 fib1618: in order for prices to trend2015-08-18 16:29:56 fib1618: both of the McClellan's, and the MCO components, MUST be on the same side as the others2015-08-18 16:30:03 fib1618: same side of the zero line, that is2015-08-18 16:30:09 fib1618: so if the MCO is positive2015-08-18 16:30:16 fib1618: and one or both of the components are not2015-08-18 16:30:20 fib1618: you can't trend2015-08-18 16:30:22 fib1618: period2015-08-18 16:30:28 fib1618: you can only move sideways2015-08-18 16:30:45 rite01: keep it simple will do please continue...2015-08-18 16:30:46 fib1618: again..remember what the components represent2015-08-18 16:30:55 fib1618: the 10% is the 19 day EMA2015-08-18 16:31:02 fib1618: the 5% is the 39 day EMA2015-08-18 16:31:13 fib1618: if one or the other are below the zero line2015-08-18 16:31:28 fib1618: then money flow is moving sideways to lower2015-08-18 16:31:39 fib1618: if we get a positive MCO at that time2015-08-18 16:32:05 fib1618: it only tells us that the speed between both of these EMA's is either moving toward or away from each other2015-08-18 16:32:20 fib1618: so...2015-08-18 16:32:25 fib1618: last week2015-08-18 16:32:37 fib1618: we had both components below their zero lines2015-08-18 16:32:43 fib1618: so the EMA's were declining2015-08-18 16:32:44 fib1618: but2015-08-18 16:32:50 fib1618: with the MCO moving above the zero line2015-08-18 16:33:46 fib1618: it told us that the 19 day was beginning to trend closer toward the 39 day EMA and not trend away from the 39 day EMA as it would if the MCO were negative2015-08-18 16:33:59 fib1618: this can include the 19 day remaining flat (the 10% near its zero line) while the slower moving 5% Trend (39 day EMA) is still trending lower to meet the 19 day EMA2015-08-18 16:34:23 fib1618: another way to look at it is...2015-08-18 16:34:37 fib1618: the rate of descent between the two EMA's was slowing2015-08-18 16:35:08 fib1618: to where a change in direction (the 10% moving back above the zero line as it did on CO on Monday)2015-08-18 16:35:14 fib1618: would be seen2015-08-18 16:35:38 fib1618: if I'm not being clear...ask the question2015-08-18 16:35:52 rite01: Yes it's clear2015-08-18 16:36:00 fib1618: good2015-08-18 16:36:12 fib1618: now looking at the NYSE Composite 10% component2015-08-18 16:36:20 fib1618: it too moved back above the zero line on Monday2015-08-18 16:36:29 fib1618: which meant that the 19 day EMA turned up2015-08-18 16:36:32 fib1618: but today2015-08-18 16:36:36 fib1618: the 10% is back below the zero line2015-08-18 16:36:47 fib1618: so the 19 day EMA turned down again2015-08-18 16:37:31 fib1618: while the 5% Trend (39 day EMA) continues to move lower, but the rate of decay has slowed2015-08-18 16:37:36 fib1618: taken together then2015-08-18 16:37:45 fib1618: and the A/D line itself is moving net sideways2015-08-18 16:37:57 fib1618: and if you remember the cumulative charts from the weekend2015-08-18 16:38:02 fib1618: then you know this to be true2015-08-18 16:38:03 fib1618: AND2015-08-18 16:38:06 fib1618: in this case2015-08-18 16:38:16 fib1618: the pattern sequence is locked between these same EMA's2015-08-18 16:38:25 fib1618: so they are being compressed2015-08-18 16:38:29 fib1618: neutral2015-08-18 16:38:31 fib1618: and why2015-08-18 16:38:45 fib1618: we have near zero line readings in both the components2015-08-18 16:39:09 fib1618: as mentioned earlier in the chat2015-08-18 16:39:24 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO only made it a reading of +27 on Monday2015-08-18 16:39:29 fib1618: and as we always say2015-08-18 16:39:56 fib1618: once you get follow through after moving above these areas of natural support or resistance2015-08-18 16:40:27 fib1618: only then can you work with the idea that the underlying current has changed direction2015-08-18 16:40:34 fib1618: otherwise2015-08-18 16:41:03 fib1618: these are like little eddy's...or large boulders...that can change the "current" direction but only briefly2015-08-18 16:41:16 fib1618: before the stronger trend (or river current) continues its control2015-08-18 16:43:50 fib1618: OK...let's move on2015-08-18 16:44:07 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO2015-08-18 16:44:17 fib1618: and here we also moved above the zero line on Monday2015-08-18 16:44:37 fib1618: but with the components still a ways away from turning positive and providing support2015-08-18 16:44:50 fib1618: we moved just as quickly back below the zero line today2015-08-18 16:45:09 fib1618: sort of like sticking your head above water when the underlying current is pulling you under2015-08-18 16:45:42 fib1618: bottoms above bottoms still remain though in the NASDAQ MCO pattern2015-08-18 16:46:10 fib1618: but until we start seeing a string of positive plurality days in the NASDAQ2015-08-18 16:46:29 fib1618: much of these pokes above the zero line are not likely to have staying power short term2015-08-18 16:47:32 fib1618: you kind of get the feeling that the market is holding up here with the help of all of those speculative near month put buyers that fell again into the trap of pulling the trigger way too soon2015-08-18 16:48:12 fib1618: but for now2015-08-18 16:48:44 fib1618: we remain with a downside target still yet to be met of around 4850 to 4900 levels2015-08-18 16:48:53 fib1618: no changes there2015-08-18 16:48:57 fib1618: but with the series of bottoms2015-08-18 16:49:09 fib1618: in order to provide the necessary foundation2015-08-18 16:49:22 fib1618: we're likely to need to break this sequence of higher lows2015-08-18 16:49:57 fib1618: but remain above the extreme low point seen in late July2015-08-18 16:50:22 fib1618: again...everything continues to look like it's not going to be until sometime in September before a tradable price low is hammered out here2015-08-18 16:50:46 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO "magically" found resistance at the +25 level today2015-08-18 16:51:12 fib1618: and has now snapped back to its zero line2015-08-18 16:51:37 fib1618: so we're back to being balanced between buyers and sellers here on a short term trending basis2015-08-18 16:52:14 fib1618: heck..even the NDX components are solidly on their zero line as well2015-08-18 16:52:49 fib1618: as is (or nearly so) the NDX breadth MCSUM with a -21 reading2015-08-18 16:53:00 fib1618: so until we break definitively one way or the other2015-08-18 16:53:10 fib1618: best to stand aside and watch from the sidelines2015-08-18 16:53:13 fib1618: then to lead off2015-08-18 16:53:36 fib1618: moving to the SPX breadth MCO2015-08-18 16:53:52 fib1618: and here we had a nice power move on Monday as this MCO reached a high of +492015-08-18 16:54:11 fib1618: and today we have now moved back toward the +25 level2015-08-18 16:54:25 fib1618: the components here are positive2015-08-18 16:54:38 fib1618: so we technically have a buy signal on a short term basis2015-08-18 16:54:49 fib1618: and looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM2015-08-18 16:55:01 fib1618: we see here that it has a reading of +1302015-08-18 16:55:11 fib1618: so, here too, we're on a technical buy signal as well2015-08-18 16:55:17 fib1618: so good news there2015-08-18 16:55:20 fib1618: however2015-08-18 16:55:28 fib1618: (and you just knew I was going to throw out the "however" card)2015-08-18 16:55:45 fib1618: we have two potential problems here2015-08-18 16:56:14 fib1618: one is that the SPX breadth MCO has now been above its zero line for four weeks now2015-08-18 16:56:21 fib1618: and historically speaking2015-08-18 16:56:55 fib1618: the MCO tends to stay either above or below its zero line for 4-6 weeks in duration2015-08-18 16:57:11 fib1618: so it's getting pretty mature there2015-08-18 16:57:24 fib1618: what would be needed to extend this time element though2015-08-18 16:57:48 fib1618: would be to see enough energy come in here to move the MCO above the +50 level2015-08-18 16:57:55 fib1618: if this were able to be accomplished2015-08-18 16:58:15 fib1618: then we would be able to meet the secondary problem here2015-08-18 16:58:35 fib1618: and that is moving above the +250 level in the SPX breadth MCSUM2015-08-18 16:58:50 fib1618: which also happens to be the point of horizontal resistance with the May highs2015-08-18 16:58:58 fib1618: so is this doable?2015-08-18 16:59:01 fib1618: sure2015-08-18 16:59:09 fib1618: is it likely?2015-08-18 16:59:27 fib1618: the odds are overwhelming that it won't be able to2015-08-18 16:59:31 fib1618: but then again2015-08-18 16:59:49 fib1618: it's been pretty dangerous to underestimate the power of this marketplace, isn't it?2015-08-18 17:00:17 fib1618: so we'll give the SPX an "atta boy" and move on2015-08-18 17:00:38 fib1618: now if the SPX didn't have enough to contend with on its own merit2015-08-18 17:00:45 fib1618: then we move to the OEX breadth MCO2015-08-18 17:01:19 fib1618: and here we see that Monday saw enough strength to move above the MCO highs of late July with a +34 reading2015-08-18 17:01:30 fib1618: but we didn't get any follow through to the break above resistance today2015-08-18 17:01:43 fib1618: and we're back to a reading of +172015-08-18 17:01:48 fib1618: more importantly2015-08-18 17:02:04 fib1618: all of this strength of late2015-08-18 17:02:21 fib1618: which looks to be more of a lack of selling than it would be fresh buying2015-08-18 17:02:37 fib1618: has only accomplished moving the OEX breadth MCSUM back to its zero line2015-08-18 17:03:07 fib1618: in what is simply a snapback to or toward the area of which was previously supported last week2015-08-18 17:03:45 fib1618: the OEX components though have confirmed the switch of control from bear to bull2015-08-18 17:04:06 fib1618: but if the buyers are going to have any chance of escaping any ambushes that might come up near term2015-08-18 17:04:39 fib1618: they will have to show a bit more backbone here and be a bit more aggressive in their market opinions2015-08-18 17:05:42 fib1618: also remember how yesterday started off2015-08-18 17:05:46 fib1618: with a sharp decline2015-08-18 17:05:48 fib1618: but once again2015-08-18 17:05:55 fib1618: the selling dried up quickly2015-08-18 17:06:01 fib1618: and the shorts had to cover2015-08-18 17:06:17 fib1618: the same thing that happened last week2015-08-18 17:06:30 fib1618: there's just not enough sellers at these levels2015-08-18 17:06:32 fib1618: and longer term2015-08-18 17:06:37 fib1618: this is bullish activity2015-08-18 17:07:25 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO is looking a bit more buoyant here2015-08-18 17:07:38 fib1618: so far then...it would appear that the large caps are holding firm here2015-08-18 17:07:52 fib1618: while the broader market continues to digest2015-08-18 17:08:02 fib1618: oh2015-08-18 17:08:07 fib1618: look what we have here!2015-08-18 17:08:18 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO powered higher on Monday2015-08-18 17:08:34 fib1618: and met the highs of July2015-08-18 17:08:39 fib1618: but with a reading of +562015-08-18 17:09:02 fib1618: now in order for the MID Caps to break the current cap in prices2015-08-18 17:09:18 fib1618: we will need to see this MCO move above this same July high point2015-08-18 17:09:41 fib1618: but here again2015-08-18 17:09:55 fib1618: we've been above the zero line now in the MID for 4 weeks now2015-08-18 17:10:17 fib1618: could it be a last blow off of the shorts before allowing the market to finish off its necessary back and fill?2015-08-18 17:10:45 fib1618: for now2015-08-18 17:10:57 fib1618: 1470 on the MID seems to be solid price support2015-08-18 17:11:17 fib1618: again taking ruler to monitor2015-08-18 17:11:41 fib1618: we see that yesterday's posting on the MID breadth MCO broke above its declining tops line2015-08-18 17:11:45 fib1618: and that's constructive2015-08-18 17:12:04 fib1618: like we talked about last week2015-08-18 17:12:13 fib1618: the market wants to go higher here2015-08-18 17:12:41 fib1618: but it hasn't been able to break above the ceiling of internal resistance as yet to do so2015-08-18 17:13:07 fib1618: but yesterday may have been an important day when we look back on this later on2015-08-18 17:13:46 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO was also able to move back above its zero line on Monday2015-08-18 17:13:59 fib1618: peaking out with a +35 reading2015-08-18 17:14:15 fib1618: but finishing the day today all the way back to a reading of +72015-08-18 17:14:27 fib1618: could be a snapback2015-08-18 17:14:41 fib1618: but it's bothersome that there was very little follow through today by the buyers2015-08-18 17:15:16 fib1618: and we got to a +20 reading on the TM breadth MCO on Monday2015-08-18 17:15:31 fib1618: but finished the day today with a reading of +32015-08-18 17:15:36 fib1618: so no breakout2015-08-18 17:15:40 fib1618: and no follow through2015-08-18 17:15:52 fib1618: and back we go to being neutral and looking for leadership2015-08-18 17:15:55 fib1618: so...2015-08-18 17:16:25 fib1618: Monday's rally pushed many of the MCO's above their technical resistance points2015-08-18 17:17:02 fib1618: but there wasn't any follow through that would suggest that the (river) current has been altered from being negative to positive2015-08-18 17:17:09 fib1618: what it did do though2015-08-18 17:17:21 fib1618: is that we seem to be working out a price floor now2015-08-18 17:17:28 fib1618: of which would be challenged later on2015-08-18 17:17:48 fib1618: but will probably hold unless the MCO lows of late July are taken out2015-08-18 17:17:52 fib1618: one thing's for sure2015-08-18 17:18:00 fib1618: being that we have a lack of trading volume here2015-08-18 17:18:18 fib1618: prices are being whipsawed quite a bit2015-08-18 17:18:43 fib1618: as our blueprint of being choppy and volatile remains the best plan for now2015-08-18 17:18:51 fib1618: let's look at the volume McClellan's2015-08-18 17:19:56 fib1618: now both the NYSE Common Only and Composite volume MCO's are in much better shape right now2015-08-18 17:20:25 fib1618: and this would support the idea that the price lows of last week are likely to hold short term2015-08-18 17:21:04 fib1618: we also have a nice upward curl now in both of these volume MCSUM's now2015-08-18 17:21:32 fib1618: with good upside gap expansion2015-08-18 17:21:37 fib1618: HOWEVER2015-08-18 17:22:04 fib1618: the NYSE volume Components are not complimenting this latest surge of strength2015-08-18 17:22:28 fib1618: and this would only happen if much of this is short covering related and not that of fresh funds moving into the marketplace2015-08-18 17:22:59 fib1618: personal note...I'm not getting a good vibe at all right now2015-08-18 17:23:32 fib1618: check out the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCO's2015-08-18 17:23:58 fib1618: and here too we see that we haven't been able to see any positive follow through to Monday's reversal2015-08-18 17:24:04 fib1618: checking the MCSUM's2015-08-18 17:24:21 fib1618: and the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is still sagging lower2015-08-18 17:24:42 fib1618: while the NDX volume MCSUM is showing that no one really wants to deal with "current" conditions2015-08-18 17:25:11 fib1618: as it's basically moving sideways...with a slight tilt to the upside2015-08-18 17:25:33 fib1618: showing for the idea of a lack of selling is allowing prices to float to the top of pond2015-08-18 17:26:01 fib1618: as with its breadth cousin, the SPX volume MCO looks pretty good here2015-08-18 17:26:33 fib1618: but the buyers will need to show some follow through by tomorrow2015-08-18 17:26:52 fib1618: or we'll likely see a deeper retracement toward the zero line on the MCO2015-08-18 17:27:25 fib1618: and that would put a crimp in any chance for the SPX volume MCSUM to clear above its June and July highs2015-08-18 17:28:10 fib1618: the OEX volume MCO wasn't able to clear above its late July highs2015-08-18 17:28:31 fib1618: and the OEX volume MCSUM remains below its zero line2015-08-18 17:28:41 fib1618: so with the MCO above its zero line2015-08-18 17:28:44 fib1618: and the MCSUM remaining below 2015-08-18 17:29:03 fib1618: the only thing that prices can continue to do on an intermediate term basis is....2015-08-18 17:29:07 fib1618: yep...2015-08-18 17:29:09 fib1618: move sideways2015-08-18 17:30:35 fib1618: the Dow volume MCSUM is now up against horizontal and natural resistance at the -500 level2015-08-18 17:30:50 fib1618: after finding support at the -1000 level2015-08-18 17:31:00 fib1618: and moving sideways just above the -750 level2015-08-18 17:31:09 fib1618: so an important test coming there2015-08-18 17:31:45 fib1618: the MID volume MCO moved to higher highs on Monday2015-08-18 17:32:11 fib1618: but no real confirmation as yet with the components2015-08-18 17:32:22 fib1618: the SML volume MCO also moved above its zero line on Monday2015-08-18 17:32:29 fib1618: but the components are still negative2015-08-18 17:32:58 fib1618: and the TM volume MCO has also snapped back today to its zero line2015-08-18 17:33:20 fib1618: after failing to move above the +25 level2015-08-18 17:33:39 fib1618: and the TM volume components remain negative2015-08-18 17:33:41 fib1618: so...2015-08-18 17:33:59 fib1618: we're definitely out of sync right now2015-08-18 17:34:03 fib1618: between indices2015-08-18 17:34:18 fib1618: and between short term and intermediate term trends of liquidity2015-08-18 17:34:22 fib1618: because of this2015-08-18 17:34:39 fib1618: unless we get something overwhelming flows from the buyers in the next two days2015-08-18 17:34:45 fib1618: we're likely to regroup again2015-08-18 17:34:52 fib1618: and more than likely2015-08-18 17:35:19 fib1618: we'll see the market attempt to not only sync up by moving below the short term series of rising bottoms controlling the MCO patterns2015-08-18 17:35:40 fib1618: but we'll likely see divergence between price with the MCSUM's in this effort2015-08-18 17:35:55 fib1618: we are so compressed here2015-08-18 17:36:02 fib1618: with each side thinking they have won2015-08-18 17:36:10 fib1618: but neither has the power as yet to make a real difference2015-08-18 17:36:16 fib1618: and so we chop sideways2015-08-18 17:36:24 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's look2015-08-18 17:36:52 fib1618: very mixed there2015-08-18 17:37:03 fib1618: it's like traders are trying to lead off 2015-08-18 17:37:20 fib1618: and they're not getting any takers2015-08-18 17:38:10 fib1618: with value stocks continuing to look like the "go to" area of investment2015-08-18 17:38:36 fib1618: while the growth sector being like the ugly girl in the corner that no one wants to ask to dance2015-08-18 17:38:54 thespookyone: When you get a minute, could you give me your take on the XLB? I love it here.2015-08-18 17:39:00 fib1618: 2015-08-18 17:39:13 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .872015-08-18 17:39:23 fib1618: Open 10 at .982015-08-18 17:39:46 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.332015-08-18 17:39:57 fib1618: Open 10 at .952015-08-18 17:40:11 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.202015-08-18 17:40:23 fib1618: Open 10 at .982015-08-18 17:40:25 fib1618: so...2015-08-18 17:40:32 fib1618: we're no longer "oversold"2015-08-18 17:40:42 fib1618: but we're not seeing any real conviction either2015-08-18 17:41:06 fib1618: this whole thing seems like that the shorts are running the show right now2015-08-18 17:41:21 fib1618: many trying to pile on because it's been too long for the bulls to do anything2015-08-18 17:41:26 fib1618: while at the same time2015-08-18 17:41:50 fib1618: the clock is against them and they are getting tired of waiting for the big prize2015-08-18 17:42:09 fib1618: we might have to wait until after OPEX it would seem to get all of this sorted2015-08-18 17:42:30 fib1618: leaving us with continued compressed action for the rest of the week2015-08-18 17:42:32 fib1618: we'll see2015-08-18 17:42:36 fib1618: OK...XLB2015-08-18 17:42:40 fib1618: let me pull it up2015-08-18 17:42:44 thespookyone: thx2015-08-18 17:44:27 fib1618: to be honest2015-08-18 17:44:49 fib1618: with the XLB breadth MCSUM moving higher and just now approaching the -750 level2015-08-18 17:45:02 fib1618: there's still time to look for a long entry2015-08-18 17:45:10 fib1618: but as long as the MCSUM remains below the -500 level2015-08-18 17:45:31 fib1618: prices will tend to construct a platform from which it can rally off of later on2015-08-18 17:45:57 fib1618: if you're an investor though2015-08-18 17:46:07 fib1618: given Monday's market bounce2015-08-18 17:46:15 fib1618: and the higher MCO readings in the XLB last week2015-08-18 17:46:22 fib1618: I guess you could nibble here2015-08-18 17:46:26 thespookyone: yes, I like the first move off the bottom, and the MCO seems to be trying. It took out all the highs since march on the MCO...2015-08-18 17:46:39 fib1618: with a stop .10 below the lows of late July2015-08-18 17:46:50 fib1618: yes...and that secures the price lows2015-08-18 17:47:06 fib1618: but until the intermediate term is able to climb out of its hole2015-08-18 17:47:16 fib1618: prices are not likely to appreciate near term2015-08-18 17:47:20 fib1618: I would be patient for now2015-08-18 17:47:29 fib1618: let me check the BETS2015-08-18 17:47:50 thespookyone: sure. The XLF MCSUM moving North of 500+ pretty well, too2015-08-18 17:48:48 thespookyone: postings getting a bit wider2015-08-18 17:48:52 fib1618: yep2015-08-18 17:49:10 fib1618: need about 2 minutes to update the cumulative charts - brb2015-08-18 17:54:40 fib1618: Canada looks awful2015-08-18 17:54:47 fib1618: -652015-08-18 17:54:59 fib1618: we actually lost 10 points in 2 days2015-08-18 17:55:05 fib1618: that is not a good sign at all2015-08-18 17:55:13 fib1618: anything else?2015-08-18 17:56:03 thespookyone: ISEE was 952015-08-18 17:56:17 fib1618: yea...finally above 80 for the first time in a while2015-08-18 17:56:24 fib1618: too many put buyers of late2015-08-18 17:56:36 thespookyone: the more, the merrier, LOL2015-08-18 17:56:40 rite01: spooky XLU MCSUM looks pretty good but MCO has been above 0 for 4 weeks already2015-08-18 17:56:46 fib1618: happens every time2015-08-18 17:57:04 fib1618: we'll hit the sectors on Thursday (as we always do)2015-08-18 17:57:09 fib1618: Oh...and remember that our next chat has been changed to Thursday2015-08-18 17:57:14 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else2015-08-18 17:57:17 fib1618: I'm going to take off2015-08-18 17:57:18 thespookyone: thx2015-08-18 17:57:22 fib1618: everyone have a good couple of days2015-08-18 17:57:35 fib1618: and we'll see if anything shimmies and shakes between now and then2015-08-18 17:57:37 fib1618: good night2015-08-18 17:57:47 rite01: Good night ALL!__________________Dave's LinkedIn Profile

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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