Study: El Nino can be predicted earlier

Feb. 11, 2014
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Marilyn Lane attempts to close her doors to prevent a large wave from crashing into her Solimar Beach home near Ventura, Calif., on Jan. 30, 1998. Lane, whose house was one of several homes damaged by high surf in Ventura County, was sweeping water out the door from inside her home when a large wave came crashing in. The ubiquitous El Nino slammed into California, killing 17 and causing an estimated $550 million in damaged crops and property. / Alan Hagman, Los Angeles Times, via AP

by Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

by Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

El Niño - the planet's "most important" and menacing climate pattern - strongly influences weather in the U.S. and around the world. Marked by unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, it typically can be predicted only a few months in advance.

But according to a new study, a group of researchers from Germany, Russia, Israel and the USA say they can now predict El Niño events more than a year ahead of time - and they're forecasting one to develop later this year.

This El Niño could push the global temperature to its highest level on record by next year, surpassing the previous record of 1998, which was set during a strong El Niño.

The study was published in Monday's Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and was led by Josef Ludescher of the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Giessen, Germany.

El Niño often brings heavy rain and disastrous floods to parts of the USA and South America. It can also lead to intense drought across Australia and parts of Southeast Asia.

"Despite its importance, conventional forecasting is still limited to six months ahead," the scientists wrote in the study. "Recently, we developed an approach ... which allows projection of an El Niño event about one year ahead."

Basically, the scientists found a complex link between current temperatures of the air above the Pacific Ocean to what the ocean temperatures in the El Niño region would be a year or so later.

El Niño is actually only one part of a cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (it also includes its opposite number, La Niña, which is cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean water.)

"It is a fascinating article and the methodology, if it holds up, would indeed revolutionize long-term climate forecasting in that it will break through the 'spring predictability barrier' that has plagued El Niño predictions in the past," said meteorologist Michael Mann of Penn State University in an e-mail.

The so-called spring predictability barrier has prevented scientists from forecasting El Niños beyond the next spring season. Mann was not part of the study.

Why is it important to get these earlier predictions? "Anything that can increase planning and reduce uncertainty can be a moneymaker," said Kevin Trenberth, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "The main advantage of a warning -- as long as it has sufficient reliability -- is for managing water and farming," he said.

He cites examples of planning what crop to grow, what kind of seed to plant, what fertilizer to use, and what area to farm. "Water relates to resources for hydro power and fisheries, etc. If California had known they were going to be really dry this winter, would they have managed water differently?" Trenberth noted.

Researchers also say that an El Niño event may form, with about a 75% likelihood, later this year. This goes along with a prediction made last week by the U.S. Climate Prediction Center.

"As the article notes, if this does happen, we will likely see a new global temperature record in 2015," Mann said. "Perhaps that will put to rest once and for all the silly notion, promoted by climate change contrarians, that climate change has 'stopped'."

"It of course has not, but the prevalence of neutral and La Niña conditions in recent years has temporarily masked the ongoing global warming trend."