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playsrelocationreplacement refsretirementsrunningrunning the optionrunning up the scoresports gamblingsports politicssports woessteroidsstolen basesstrange playstakeout slidesteam chemistrytournament snubstradeswinter sportsworld sportsyouth sportsDead Cat's BounceA washed up Seattle sports fan has a few words to say about a few things in sports.http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)Blogger354125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-8332351457595392Wed, 20 Apr 2016 14:57:00 +00002016-04-20T08:16:48.644-07:00exercisejoggingrunningCardio, strength, and how people get running all wrong<a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-achiness-of-the-long-distance-runner/">538 did a feature on the stress of being a long distance runner.</a><br /><br />Contrary to popular belief, running is a matter of strength training and development, and overtraining can lead to injuries. "Cardio" isn't about strengtening the lungs. Your lungs are an organ that has no muscles, and will always have the same capacity of delivering oxygen to your body.<br /><br />What strengtens is the efficiency with which your muscles do a given task on a given dose of oxygen. When you breathe hard, it's because you have overtaxed your body so badly that it's starved of oxygen and your lungs must overcompensate to catch up. Your lungs' efficiency never changes. The amount of work your muscles can do before reaching that hyperventilation point is what changes.<br /><br />Running every day is like lifting weights the same way everyday. Would you do the latter? Hell no! (You'd at least switch body parts to focus on each day) If you worked out the exact same parts every day you'd see minimal gains and probably get injured. Yet we're totally fine with running several miles a day, and far more miles a week than our bodies are comfortably capable of handling.<br /><br />You're basically overtraining your lower body, and probably running far more than your muscles have the strength to comfortably handle. A lot of runners push their bodies everyday beyond what their muscles are capable of doing on their own... thus their bones and joints are forced to bear more stress than they should, which is how long term injuries, arthritis and other damage happens.<br /><br />Your bones and joints also have no muscle, and in many cases cannot recuperate and grow the way your muscles can. Any damage you do from excess work stays done.<br /><br />Injuries are not a mandatory side effect of running. You can do so in moderation, train properly, and avoid them. But most aspiring runners are taught to, literally, run themselves into the ground.<br /><br />Some people swear by the Couch to 5K starter plan, but I'm partial to <a href="http://www.halhigdon.com/training/50933/5K-Novice-Training-Program">Hal Higdon's approach to learning running</a>. You put in the distance, but you do so at your own pace, even walking or very lightly jogging the distance if you must. You get your body used to the motion of running in a low-stress fashion, and it gradually develops the strength to run at greater speeds.http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2016/04/cardio-strength-and-how-people-get.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-4358342900462543208Tue, 19 Apr 2016 15:56:00 +00002016-04-20T08:17:16.533-07:00Jose BautistaMLBtakeout slidesTampa Bay RaysToronto Blue JaysJose Bautista's Gambit: The Game Theory behind the failed takeout slide<iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=574646983&amp;topic_id=63817564&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe><br /><br />Over two weeks after Blue Jays slugger <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bautijo02.shtml">Jose Bautista</a> became one of the first victims of <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2016/2/25/11114388/takeout-slide-rule-mlb-chase-utley">MLB's new takeout slide rule</a>, I can't get over the fact that Joey Bats actually made what was a smart decision.<br /><br />The slide itself seemed borderline. This wasn't the traditional spikes-up M.Bison from Street Fighter Slide Kick Into the 2nd Baseman takeout slide that Chase Utley used to injure Ruben Tejada in the 2015 playoffs. Bautista's slide was in line with the bag. His hand made contact with Logan Forsythe's leg as Forsythe tried to turn the potential game ending double play. The booth umpire decided that Bautista had reached for Forsythe's leg on the slide, and called the batter out due to runner interference. Game over, Rays win.<br /><br />Bautista's no dummy. He knows as well as anyone that interference with the middle infielder on slides into 2nd is now illegal. And I don't believe for a second that his outstretched left hand was circumstantial. Every player knows to keep his upper body compact to maximize speed when sliding into a base. The only reason Bautista happened to extend the hand on the same side as the 2nd baseman was to interfere with his throw.<br /><br />While that seems rather dumb, to knowingly interfere when it's not legal... Bautista's play was a great game theory move, and the best play for his situation.<br /><br />------------<br /><br />See, if Bautista slides normally, Forsythe, a competent 2B, turns the easy double play to throw out the not so fleet footed Jays batter Edwin Encarnacion at 1B to end the game. Of course, if Bautista blatantly slides into Forsythe, it's not only obvious interference and the game is over... but he could also be suspended.<br /><br />However, when Bautista slides normally into the bag and subtlely extends his hand, there is a chance that the umpires overlook his interference, with the more substantial chance that Forsythe doesn't complete his play (which is what happened: Forsythe in fact made a throwing error due to interference from the outstretched hand), tying the game (Josh Donaldson would score from 3B) and keeping the game alive with two outs in the top 9th. Having a runner on 1st with two outs, obviously, gives you a better chance of winning than the game being over.<br /><br />Yes, Bautista is often cited for interference and the game is over anyway. But it took an astute challenge from Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash and a conclusive booth review for that ruling to occur. Bautista's interference was subtle, and there appeared such a substantial chance that he could get away with it that many argued (incorrectly) that Bautista hadn't intended to interfere at all! The umpires on the field in fact had not ruled he done so.<br /><br />Of course, the opposing manager and the booth were a little sharper than that, and Bautista's gambit did not pay off. It also sent a message that this subtle hand-checking-like attempt at interference will get called, so it's unlikely players will attempt it in the future.<br /><br />But before we knew all that, Bautista made the game theory optimal decision that it was worth a try. It wasn't clean, and he got caught, but it was a very smart move on his part... smarter than playing it clean and taking the certain defeat. There was greater expected value for him and the Jays in attempting to get away with interference, than there was in sliding normally... even with the high odds that his gambit would not succeed.http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2016/04/jose-bautistas-gambit-game-theory.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-8221404167354060881Tue, 15 Mar 2016 18:11:00 +00002016-04-20T08:17:43.038-07:00NCAA Basketballtournament snubsTulsa Golden HurricaneBreaking Loose in Tulsa: Anatomy of a bad at-large NCAA Tournament selection, and the business of at-large bids<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Wj5fAgUA2jQ/VuhPzPyWlII/AAAAAAAADR8/AI8NliSJpgAOmqT5rsm2KX9JhlDlG32Tw/s1600/TulsaBasketball.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Wj5fAgUA2jQ/VuhPzPyWlII/AAAAAAAADR8/AI8NliSJpgAOmqT5rsm2KX9JhlDlG32Tw/s320/TulsaBasketball.jpg" width="320" /></a>Every NCAA Tournament selection show ends with howling over snubs and undeserving inclusions. This year's bad-inclusion winner is a duesy: <a href="http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8099&amp;s=284067">Tulsa</a> made the field at large despite ranking 75th in Massey Ratings and a mediocre finish that included multiple losses to unheralded Memphis.<br /><br /><a href="http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7729&amp;s=284067">Syracuse</a> (58th) caught similar flak, especially after losing 5 of their last 6, including a regular season closing road loss to NIT-worthy Florida State. This is especially glaring given the omissions of worthy programs like <a href="http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7242&amp;s=284067">South Carolina</a> (44th) and <a href="http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2911&amp;s=284067">Georgia Tech</a> (45th). However, Tulsa's inclusion is quite glaring given their rating even made them a marginal pick for the subordinate NIT tournament.<br /><br /><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/4adi4h/joe_lunardi_in_my_20_years_of_predicting_brackets/d0zhk5i">Someone on reddit floated an excellent theory</a> that might not only explain these inclusions but also illustrate the sort of political factors within the NCAA that lead to certain selections and omissions:<br /><br />Each conference gets a certain sum of money for every NCAA bid they get. Louisville and SMU, who would have certainly made the field, are barred from postseason play this year and could not go. The ACC (Louisville) and American Athletic Conference (SMU) lose out... unless the tournament takes one extra at-large team from those conferences in their stead.<br /><br />Hence Syracuse (ACC) and Tulsa (AAC) got bids they probably didn't deserve, as a restitution payoff to the power conferences for their powerful but banned programs not getting in.<br /><br />Yes, this is terribly unfair from a competitive standpoint. Yes, the committee ideally should take teams on their own merit rather than out of loyalty to a conference or program. But as long as the NCAA fills a field by hand picking teams at-large, this is always going to happen with the bubble teams. Teams are always going to get seeded higher or lower than they should, or play at an out of place region when circumstances would have allowed them to play closer to home.<br /><br />Unfortunately, when you give a group of rich white men the power to hand pick competitors for a championship, political and business interests become just as important a factor in your program's fate as your strength of schedule or win loss record.http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2016/03/breaking-loose-in-tulsa-anatomy-of-bad.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-9021336828083471547Mon, 07 Mar 2016 20:31:00 +00002016-03-09T13:51:56.546-08:00If Roy Williams want automatic NCAA Tournament bids for regular season conference champs....<a href="http://keepingitheel.com/2012/03/04/college-basketball-debate-regular-season-or-conference-tournament-more-important/">Roy Williams has stated for years that he feels a conference's regular season champion should get the conference's automatic tournament bid</a>, rather than the conference's tournament champion. Should the regular season champion get an automatic tournament bid? Or the conference tournament champion?<br /><br />My answer? Yes.<br /><br />If you're going to do it, both should get it. We should do away with at-large tournament bids, give every conference two bids and expand the field to 72.<br /><br />Much like how international soccer leagues' non-premier divisions hold playoffs to determine who gets promoted, I think the conference tournament should be played among every runner up in the conference as a winner take all event. The conference champ gets an automatic bid, and every other team in the conference plays each other for the right to the other automatic bid.<br /><br />With 36 conferences, this leaves us with 72 tournament entrants. You may do one of three things.<br /><br />1. Hold eight play-in games at Dayton over Monday and Tuesday to determine the 15 and 16 seeds. This gives the lowest seeds a chance to at least win a tournament game before being fed to the #1 and #2 seeds on Thursday/Friday.<br /><br />2. Hold a pair of 4 team play in tournaments at Dayton on Monday and Tuesday among the lowest 8 rated teams in the field, to determine the lowest #16 seeds for Thursday/Friday's round of 64. This gives the field of 64 a little more stuffing, since more of the lowest rated teams would knock each other out during these play ins.<br /><br />3. Take a page from the conference tournaments and "stepladder" the rounds with byes to reward the higher seeds. Perhaps the top 8 teams (all the #1 and #2 seeds) get a bye to the round of 32, while everyone else has to play on Thursday and Friday. This jacks with the seeding, with 18 teams now in every region rather than 16, plus instead of 1 vs 16, 2 vs 15... 3 plays 18, 4 plays 17... down to 10 playing 11... while #1 and #2 get the 1st round off. <br /><br />The obvious issue with this more objective format for determining tournament teams is that you involve fewer of the power conference teams, which not only dilutes attendance and viewership, but also doesn't allow these conferences to rake in extra tournament money. That alone will likely prohibit the NCAA from ever eliminating the placement of at-large teams from the tournament.<br /><br />Still, if Roy Williams is serious about giving the conference champ an automatic bid, there would need to be a carrot for the conference tournaments, which obviously won't ever go away. This would be the most workable solution, outside of that silly <a href="http://espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?page=wojciechowski/100211">96 team expansion idea</a> the NCAA had a few years ago.http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2016/03/if-roy-williams-want-automatic-ncaa.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-1652116370466975311Mon, 08 Feb 2016 18:51:00 +00002016-02-08T10:59:44.292-08:00A new look at MLB realignment, six years later<a href="http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2010/05/idea-for-mlb-realignment-part-one-two.html">Six years ago I posited how MLB would handle expansion if they added two new teams</a>. I figured they would follow the NFL's lead and switch to eight 4-team divisions, with the playoffs consisting solely of each league's four division winners.<br /><br />That would still work today, but since that 2010 post, MLB made the move to two 15-team leagues with perpetual interleague play, and Houston ended up moving to the AL. This obviously renders my San Diego to the AL recommendation obsolete, though it still allows for a new expansion team in each league.<br /><br />Also, while I had recommended Charlotte as a likely expansion candidate, the city has since built <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BB%26T_Ballpark_%28Charlotte%29">BB&amp;T Ballpark</a>, a 10,200 seat stadium that is decidedly not suitable for a larger MLB crowd. Having committed to minor league baseball, Charlotte is now out of that running.<br /><br />Omaha's TD Ameritrade Park remains a suitable MLB-friendly ballpark (even given doubts about their market). But now the 2nd expansion candidate goes back up in the air. However, groundswell has grown in recent years to <a href="http://montrealbaseballproject.com/en/about/">bring back the once-eliminated Montreal Expos</a>, and now it seems they would be the most likely expansion candidate should MLB expand to 32 teams.<br /><br />All this throws a wrench in the realignment plan I originally proposed in 2010. So I gave it a look and realigned my realignment plan, which again focuses on geographically grouping teams as best as possible to reduce overall travel time within the division. And again, the playoffs are division champs only, making the division winner-take-all and eliminating the somewhat unfair roll-of-the-dice wildcards.<br /><br />Here is how a solid realignment would look today:<br /><br /><b>AL West - Seattle, Oakland, Anaheim, Omaha</b><br /><br />Texas and Houston would move to a more regionally accessible division, while the expansion Omaha club would join the remaining AL West teams. This unfortunately means the division has a long-travel partner, but the AL and NL North divisions were both quite loaded and no other AL teams were in easy reach of the three incumbents. So the expansion team unfortunately drew the short straw. However, travel between the West Coast teams and Omaha is a little short than travel to either Texas team, and to a less crowded airport hub, so that helps.<br /><br />This division will feature three relatively competitive rivals, which for poor Omaha means their early tenure will most likely mean some 90-110 loss seasons. You also lose the hitter friendly Texas parks, swapping in Omaha's hitter friendly TD Ameritrade Park but still making this a pitcher-friendlier division.<br /><br /><b>AL North - Minnesota, Chi White Sox, Detroit, Cleveland</b><br /><br />Most of the AL Central remains intact in the new AL North, losing only World Champion Kansas City (and boy did none of us see THAT coming in 2010). Given each team's current state of transition and development, this division would be wide open for the taking among four fairly competitive rivals. Losing hitter friendly Kauffman Stadium with KC makes this division a little pitcher friendlier, with only the White Sox's US Cellular Field being a hitter friendly park in the division.<br /><br /><b>AL South - Houston, Texas, Kansas City, Tampa Bay</b><br /><br />Both AL-West-departing Texas teams would join World Champs Kansas City and the AL-East departing Tampa Bay Rays in a new and quite competitive AL South. Houston of course has become young and quite good, KC is now quite good, Texas has had some struggles but is still fairly good, and Tampa Bay even on a downswing is still at least a .500-caliber team. This may become the new toughest division in MLB.<br /><br />On top of that, Rangers Ballpark is a launchpad, Kauffman Stadium in KC is hitter friendly, and upcoming changes to Minute Maid Park in Houston will make it more hitter friendly. If not for Tampa Bay's crappy but slightly pitcher friendly Tropicana Field, this would be the Launchpad Division. Hitters will love it, the division becomes a pitcher's nightmare, and each team's hitters could expect a sizable boost in their season stats.<br /><br /><b>AL East - Boston, NY Yankees, Baltimore, Toronto</b><br /><br />The AL East loses only Tampa Bay (who heads to the more regionally friendly AL South), and remains one of baseball's toughest divisions. The loss of the wildcard turns both the South and the East into two of baseball's best pennant races. Plus, all four teams play in hitters parks, and Tampa's pitcher-neutral Tropicana Field goes away. Pitcher just got a little tougher in the AL East.<br /><br /><b>NL West - San Francisco, LA Dodgers, San Diego, Arizona</b><br /><br />With the past realignment, San Diego no longer needs to jump leagues, and a revised NL West only loses regionally unfriendly and largely uncompetitive Colorado. The winner take all division now gives greater weight to the always competitive Giants-Dodgers rivalry. Also, losing Coors Field makes this one of the most pitcher friendly divisions, with only Chase Field in Arizona not being a strong pitcher's park.<br /><br /><b>NL North - Milwaukee, Chi Cubs, Colorado, Pittsburgh</b><br /><br />Cubs-Cards fans may howl at splitting up the two bitter rivals. But St Louis is more of a southern team, and fits better geographically in the new NL South. Plus, it also makes it possible that the Cubs and Cards could meet in the playoffs, whereas sharing a winner take all division means a playoff rematch would be impossible.<br /><br />In any case, Pittsburgh and the Cubs' rise to power with young talent have made this a tough division, which leaves the Brewers and Rockies in a difficult position.<br /><br />This becomes a very hitter friendly division, with park-neutral Milwaukee being the only non-hitter's park.<br /><br /><b>NL South - Cincinnati, St Louis, Atlanta, Miami </b><br /><br />A new NL South would pair Cincinnati with three southern teams. In terms of travel and maintaining as many rivalries as possible, bringing Cincinnati is probably the best arrangement for MLB. A rebuilding Reds team joins the rebuilding Braves, the middling but improving young Marlins, and the strong veteran Cardinals. This division is probably all St Louis for now, as long as their veteran core remains strong. But should the Cards age and decline, this division could be wide open.<br /><br />It's also one of the more pitcher friendly division... definitely not on the scale of either West division, but Busch Stadium plays pitcher-neutral, Turner Field (ATL) plays pitcher neutral, and Marlins Stadium (MIA) is neutral, while Great American Ballpark (CIN) is the only hitter's park. Given how many hitter friendly divisions we end up with, pitchers may prefer this division.<br /><br /><b>NL East - Philadelphia, NY Mets, Washington, Montreal</b><br /><br />The reborn Montreal Expos would fit nicely in the revised NL East, joining the Mets, Phillies, and the former Expos now known as the Nationals. Montreal's new team would have it somewhat better than expansion Omaha, as Philly is not doing well, the Mets are good but still improving, and the Nationals while very talented have underachieved. Montreal would still enter as the likely doormat, but they'd probably be a little more competitive.<br /><br />This is also the most diverse mix of parks in any division. Philly's park is a hitter's launchpad, Citi Field is a bit pitcher friendly, Nationals Park is neutral, and while it's anyone's guess how Montreal's new stadium would play, they'd likely play for now in weird and hitter friendly Stade Olympique.<br /><br />------<br /><br />So that's what a solid MLB realignment would look like if MLB quickly added two ready-to-play expansion teams to expand to 32. Losing the Wildcards would give added weight to each division's pennant race, and each smaller division would take on intriguing personalities of their own.http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2016/02/a-new-look-at-mlb-realignment-five.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-67193786872860624Sat, 06 Feb 2016 02:37:00 +00002016-02-05T18:40:08.857-08:00MLBMLB's qualifying offer system needs to change, but it doesn't need to go.MLB's qualifying offer system is the latest attempt to even the playing field for smaller market teams who can't afford to retain their free agents. However, like the Type A/B system that preceded it, the system is ham fistedly simple. You can submit a default qualifying contract offer of one season for about $15M, and if the player declines it to sign elsewhere, you get a sandwich draft pick (end of 1st round) and the signing team loses their top qualifying draft pick.<br /><br />However, this vastly discourages teams with departing free agents from making the qualifying offer, since they now add a relative ton of money to the payroll if the player re-signs with them (which they may not want). It also vastly discourages other teams from signing such a player since they lose a prized draft pick if they do.<br /><br />The system also has rules in place preventing offers to midseason acquisitions, which increases the organization hit to a team acquiring such a player, since they can't recoup a draft pick.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2016/feb/03/mlbs-qualifying-offer-system-wields-a-touch-of-death-and-needs-scrapping">Agent-friendly baseball writers recommend the system be scrapped entirely</a>, forgetting why such a system exists in the first place. Prior to its existence, MLB's richest teams stockpiled talent at will and left lesser teams to flounder, watch their developed young talent leave via free agency, or both.<br /><br />What the qualifying offer system needs is nuance. Neither the Type A/B system or the QO had much nuance at all. Type A/B somewhat arbitrarily attached a label to a subset of free agents that could net sandwich picks, while the QO gives teams a single blunt instrument offer to levy in exchange for a draft pick. And both systems heavily penalized the drafts of any team that signed such a player.<br /><br />First of all, the blanket 1st/2nd round sandwich picks and 1st/2nd round draft penalties need not be so ham fisted. It should be possible to open up lower picks in the draft, from the 3rd round down to the teens, to exchange and compensation. The expected value of these picks are far lower, and would levy a substantially smaller penalty to teams that sign a qualifying free agent... yet still aiding the draft of an organization that loses a player.<br /><br />I think the $15 million qualifying offer is not a bad number... as a maximum. You should be able to offer smaller qualifying offers, that net lesser draft picks in return should the player sign elsewhere.<br /><br />This can be determined by, say, average WAR per draft pick in each round over, say, the five years prior to the last six years (the span of a team's initial control over a prospect). For this season that period would be 2006-2010. This allows a complete picture of the recent relative value of picks made in that round.<br /><br />Using WAR as an approximate barometer, you can make the qualifying offers relative to that $15 million total.<br /><br />For example, a $15M qualifying offer would cost a team their highest available pick (top 10 picks are protected, so if a team's 1st selection is protected, they'd lose their 2nd pick). But then a team could offer, say, $7M, and if that player signs elsewhere the new team could lose their 3rd round pick. The compensated team gets a sandwich pick for that round. Or, you could offer $6M, and losing the player nets you a 4th round pick while the signing team loses theirs, and so on.<br /><br />Eventually, you'll want to set a minimum qualifying offer amount, maybe $2 million or so, but you could go as low as the 10th-20th rounds in terms of compensation if you wanted, depending on how much of a qualifying offer is levied.<br /><br />If the signing team has already lost their pick in the relevant round, they can exercise one of two options:<br /><br />- Forfeit the next round's pick as well in this draft. If you're slated to lose a 4th round pick that you've already lost, you can choose to lose your 5th original pick as well. (Any sandwich picks you have gained are protected, so if you got a 4th round sandwich pick while losing your original 4th round pick, you won't lose the sandwich pick)<br /><br />- Defer the lost pick to a future draft, losing the relevant pick in the next draft after this coming one. So in this case you could just decide to lose your 4th round pick next year.<br /><br />This would soften the blow to your draft in signing a QO player. And it would make sure the team losing such players could offer more flexible QO's and get some compensation for more of their losses. A team rebuilding could load up on picks, without ruining the draft of whoever signs their departing free agents. It's much easier to lose a 3rd or 5th rounder than your top pick.<br /><br />I realize this would dramatically increase the number of qualifying offers, and would send draft picks and draft orders flying all over the place. This would level the playing field, and also better encourage teams to sign these players, rather than discouraging them as the current system does.http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2016/02/mlbs-qualifying-offer-system-needs-to.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-3870134869599046276Fri, 12 Sep 2014 00:55:00 +00002016-01-20T10:27:30.375-08:00Ray Rice, the fallacy of hero worship, and the invincibility of the bottom line<div class="mceTemp" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"> <dl class="wp-caption alignright" data-mce-style="width: 300px;" id="attachment_3273" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: none; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; margin: 0px 0px 16px 16px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; text-align: center; width: 300px;"><dt class="wp-caption-dt" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; overflow: hidden;"><a data-mce-href="https://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/rice_ray_g_mp_576x324.jpg" href="https://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/rice_ray_g_mp_576x324.jpg" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; color: #00aadc;"><img alt="He never did own his actions" class="size-medium wp-image-3273" data-mce-src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/rice_ray_g_mp_576x324.jpg?w=300" height="168" src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/rice_ray_g_mp_576x324.jpg?w=300" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; border: 0px none; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" width="300" /></a></dt><dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: rgb(243, 246, 248); color: #4f748e; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 16px;">With two furious punches to his fiancee's head inside an elevator, one of the NFL's lauded heroes became its biggest monster</dd></dl></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Ray Rice was for years one of my favorite famous people in sports, let alone one of my favorite players. He was, dating back to his Rutgers college days, a standup guy with a great public attitude and a work ethic and performance to match.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Then we found out he beat up his fiancee in a New Jersey casino elevator, and that changed immediately. You could see the dust from my fandom floating in the air after how fast my allegiances to Ray Rice disappeared.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">See, because while I'm not so sure about how the rest of the nation sees domestic violence, me finding out a person I look up to just beat down their S.O. is for me a pretty quick dealbreaker. And never mind difficulty with sentiment. If I can walk away from everyone and everything I've ever known to come live in a place like Seattle (as I did 10 years ago), I should have no trouble reconciling a sudden and decisive end to my fandom for anyone or anything over a sordid discovery.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">In fact, growing up in Vegas taught me that underneath the public facades that so many put up there is in many cases a giant self serving asshole who will step on whoever they need to and give zero fucks about what they're doing wrong or who they're hurting. And that's just the random tourists: Both my folks as well as several friends worked in prominent Vegas Strip casinos and have met hundreds of celebrities from both sports and entertainment. While many were great people, many were total dickheads, some beyond the scope of reason and sanity (and no, I'm not naming names, but some of the bad ones include some of my childhood favorites and some of yours). I think merely by growing up in Vegas I had given up the notion of public figures being heroes by adulthood.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">So it makes a little less sense to me than it does to others that we have any responsibility to protect Ray Rice from prosecution and other punishment to the fullest extent of the law. At the same time, I realize why the public and the NFL and the relevant governments are having a harder time with what should otherwise be a Judge Dredd style slam dunk decision. People for years looked up to Ray Rice as not just a football star, but one of the shining beacons of everything that was right about football, a great character guy and an example to the rest of us... before this.<img alt="" class="wp-more-tag mce-wp-more" data-mce-placeholder="1" data-mce-resize="false" data-wp-more-text="" data-wp-more="more" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" style="background: url(&quot;images/more.png&quot;) 50% 50% repeat-y scroll transparent; border-radius: 0px; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; cursor: default; display: block; height: 16px; margin: 15px auto 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 652.797px;" title="Read more..." /></div><div class="mceTemp" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"> <dl class="wp-caption alignright" data-mce-style="width: 300px;" id="attachment_3274" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: none; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; margin: 0px 0px 16px 16px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; text-align: center; width: 300px;"><dt class="wp-caption-dt" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; overflow: hidden;"><a data-mce-href="https://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/130203_roger_goodell_ap_605.jpg" href="https://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/130203_roger_goodell_ap_605.jpg" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; color: #00aadc;"><img alt="I did not... have viewing relations... with that video... of Ray Rice." class="size-medium wp-image-3274" data-mce-src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/130203_roger_goodell_ap_605.jpg?w=300" height="162" src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/130203_roger_goodell_ap_605.jpg?w=300" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; border: 0px none; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" width="300" /></a></dt><dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: rgb(243, 246, 248); color: #4f748e; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 16px;">The NFL Commissioner claims he made a decision on Ray Rice's actions without viewing video footage of those actions even though the NFL had received that video in advance. This is probably not an honest claim by the Commisioner.</dd></dl></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">This sentimental disconnect probably has a little bit to do with why NJ authorities and why Roger Goodell have so badly screwed up how they have handled the due process and punishment for Rice's behavior.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">It's no secret that many across America were already not happy in general with Roger Goodell's tenure as NFL Commissioner. The Ray Rice disaster was not really so much a cherry on top of a shit cake as it was a barrel of watermelons dumped in a splattering heap atop it, leaving the table looking like the unholy marriage of a scat film set and the stage at the end of a Gallagher show.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">In fact, scat, slapstick and bigotry might be appropriate symbols for Goodell's handling of this whole disaster. The NFL's role in the subsequent failed cover up is nauseatingly disgusting, Ray Rice acted out a Three Stooges short on his fiancee's face, and many people both uninvolved and directly involved have shown that they still have a culturally backwards sense towards whether or not it's ever okay to physically strike a significant other over a domestic dispute.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">******</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Like many of you, I want Roger Goodell gone after this. Hell, I wanted him gone before this, given his cavalier disdain for serious issues facing the league such as the serious health and brain-damage problems of retired players.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">But as it was before, Roger Goodell isn't going anywhere no matter how upset we get with him, no matter how much media figures like Keith Olbermann rake his credibility over the coals, because the only people who can oust him are the other owners. And the only reason they would oust him is if his decisions were directly impacting their bottom line.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">And as angry as the public gets over the Rice disaster, 50K-70K are still going to pack every NFL stadium hosting a game this weekend. Millions of fans across the world are still going to tune in and obsess over this weekend's games. Advertisers still see the incredible value in reaching an audience of this size and have no intentions of pulling their NFL sponsorships over a commissioner's mishandling of a domestic violence case involving one of his players.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">And given that, none of us angry at Goodell have any leverage to oust him over it. None. His placement as commissioner is by and large a business decision. His role by and large is to make business decisions. And the league's decision to oust him would have to be by and large a business decision. The NFL is not going to lose a significant portion of its business over the outrage.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">This never minds the sordid reality that a good portion of the other players, coaches and executives, not to mention the fans, are probably themselves wifebeaters, people who see no big deal in taking a swing at their wives/girlfriends/fiancees, especially provided they say sorry later and move on. That's a whole other can of worms that goes beyond football, let alone the Ray Rice disaster.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Roger Goodell probably doesn't deserve to be the face of anything, let alone the NFL, after this disaster. But sadly there isn't much of anything we can do about it.</div>http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2014/09/ray-rice-fallacy-of-hero-worship-and.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-4125393862358001685Fri, 15 Nov 2013 02:13:00 +00002016-01-20T10:20:27.643-08:00Finding Ways To Win: The Hawks have made a fan out of me<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Despite growing up in Las Vegas, I grew up a Mariners fan. I was sort of a Sonics fan, but more in passing than anything. Admittedly, I grew up a Kansas City Chiefs fan, and of course I’m thrilled with their sudden, incredible turnaround to a 9-0 start this season. My allegiances to Seattle sports teams have always been incidental or objectively neutral.</div><div class="mceTemp" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"> <dl class="wp-caption alignright" data-mce-style="width: 300px;" id="attachment_2809" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: none; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; margin: 0px 0px 16px 16px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; text-align: center; width: 300px;"><dt class="wp-caption-dt" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; overflow: hidden;"><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/petecarroll.jpg" href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/petecarroll.jpg" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; color: #00aadc;"><img alt="Pete Carroll makes winning look automatic these days" class="size-medium wp-image-2809" data-mce-src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/petecarroll.jpg?w=300" height="199" src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/petecarroll.jpg?w=300" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; border: 0px none; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" width="300" /></a></dt><dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: rgb(243, 246, 248); color: #4f748e; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 16px;">Pete Carroll makes winning look automatic these days</dd></dl></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">But that aside, after almost ten years in Seattle, I am finally becoming a Seattle Seahawks fan. The edition I discovered when I moved here was good, but bland, a blandly competitive West Coast style team that had a couple of great years, a few good ones and a slow slide into mediocre irrelevance. And then John Schneider, Pete Carroll, Beast Mode and Russell Wilson showed up and the identity of the team changed dramatically. They started growing on me during last season’s emergent 11-5 season and thrilling playoff run, and now I have bought in.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">I grew up watching the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels basketball team, one of college basketball’s powerhouses under embattled but savvy coach Jerry Tarkanian. Combining incredible talent, a relentless pace and Tim Grgruich’s Amoeba Defense (basically, smother the back court with pressure man defense, steal the inevitable desperate pass, fast break to an easy basket and profit), UNLV had one of the top teams in the country and for long stretches was ranked #1 overall. To see them inevitably lose in the thrilling crapshoot that is the NCAA Tournament (except of course for glorious 1990, when they did win it all) was always a shock, like getting punched in the gut. Growing up watching them steamroll every opponent, from the lowly division rivals in a Big West Conference they were far too good for to some of the top teams in the country, you as a fan always had the sense regardless of the score that the Runnin’ Rebels were going to find a way to win.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><img alt="" class="wp-more-tag mce-wp-more" data-mce-placeholder="1" data-mce-resize="false" data-wp-more-text="" data-wp-more="more" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" style="background: url(&quot;images/more.png&quot;) 50% 50% repeat-y scroll transparent; border-radius: 0px; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; cursor: default; display: block; height: 16px; margin: 15px auto 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 652.797px;" title="Read more..." /></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">I feel that way about today’s Seahawks. They are super talented and capable of a wider variety of explosive plays than probably any other NFL team. Their defense has brash personalities and makes a lot of big plays. They make a lot of foolish mistakes and at times play like background noise on defense. Their QB is super smart, level headed and versatile.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">But most of all, no matter what the score, I always believe they’re going to win, especially after that epic comeback against the Bucs. For me, that game was the turning point, and showed me more about what this team is made of than any blowout would have… because they got hit in the mouth by a vastly inferior opponent, fell embarrassingly behind at home, and landed in a spot where most teams would have gone into pass-only desperation mode or folded their tent. And instead, they ground their way back into the game, forced overtime and flipped the kill switch on both ends of the ball. They overwhelmed Mike Glennon and the Bucs offense. Beast Mode basically willed the offense downfield. And Hauschka’s walkoff field goal felt automatic as it sealed the deal.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">I can look at the Seahawks schedule and see a lot of trap games. But I can’t look at the schedule and think, “There’s a chance they lose that game.” The reasonable part of my mind says a loss is always possible, but the fan side now just doesn’t see how it can happen. They always seem to find a way to win.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">They haven’t lost since that road game against the Colts. I bet, the next time they lose, it’s going to feel like getting punched in the gut.</div>http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2013/11/finding-ways-to-win-hawks-have-made-fan.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-2732014041877566397Sun, 09 Dec 2012 19:51:00 +00002016-01-20T09:52:10.547-08:00Washington Huskies basketball: It's probably time for Lorenzo Romar to go<div class="mceTemp" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"> <dl class="wp-caption alignright" data-mce-style="width: 300px;" id="attachment_1679" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: none; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; margin: 0px 0px 16px 16px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; text-align: center; width: 300px;"><dt class="wp-caption-dt" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; overflow: hidden;"><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbias.com/2012/12/09/basketball-another-sport-where-the-cougs-are-outplaying-the-huskies/romar/" href="http://wcoastbias.com/2012/12/09/basketball-another-sport-where-the-cougs-are-outplaying-the-huskies/romar/" rel="attachment wp-att-1679" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; color: #00aadc;"><img alt="That's the look of a man who got a top 25 caliber team to lose to Albany, Colorado State and Nevada." class="size-full wp-image-1679" data-mce-src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/romar.jpg" src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/romar.jpg" height="199" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; border: 0px none; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" width="300" /></a></dt><dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: rgb(243, 246, 248); color: #4f748e; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 16px;">That's the look of a man who got a tournament caliber team to lose to Albany, Colorado State and Nevada.</dd></dl></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">In light of <a href="http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2012/12/fumblin-rebels-can-unlv-football-ever.html">my previous post on UNLV football</a>, let's talk about the sport UNLV is actually good at: College basketball. I have two alma maters, UNLV and the University of Washington.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Now, college basketball is a different beast in that teams play about 30 regular season games, there are over 350 Division I programs, and instead of bowl games you're playing for a spot in the massive March crapshoot that is the NCAA Tournament. The 7th best team in a power conference has just as much a chance at the national championship as the best team in that conference, or any conference champion.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">While regular season contests don't carry the weight they do in other sports (individual games are typically not life or death), what you do during the season still matters in the big picture. At-large participants in the NCAA Tournament (those who don't win their conference tournaments) are picked based on their in-season performance, so a slate of bad losses can hurt your case as much as big wins over tough teams can help you.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">The UNLV Runnin' Rebels currently look good at 6-1 thanks to a soft schedule (a loss to Oregon and wins over N.Arizona, Jacksonville State, Iowa State, UC Irvine, Hawaii and Portland). They get Cal tonight in Berkeley and entertain a few more cupcakes before going to Chapel Hill to play top 25 North Carolina. Their days of glory under Jerry Tarkanian are long gone and the program's relevance has come and gone... but previous coach Lon Kruger did a good job using solid defense to turn the team into a top 25 squad before turning the reins to current coach Dave Rice.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">But they're not who I really want to talk about. Over in Huskyland, it's not looking good for often embattled coach Lorenzo Romar.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Though the Huskies made a few Tournament Sweet Sixteens under his watch, many of his teams have a history of underachievement. After three straight NCAA tourney bids, Romar somehow survived missing the 2007 tournament and an early exit from an undeserved CBI tourney bid in 2008 to hold onto his job and swing three more consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances from 2009-2011. Even in missing the 2012 tourney his Huskies made the consolation NIT's Final Four.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">And this year it's gotten worse, to the point where I think this will be Romar's last season at UW. Never mind that last year's team missed the NCAA tourney. Previous Romar-led Husky teams at least beat the softer opponents on their schedule. This year's team lost at home to lowly Albany on 11/13, got routed at home by mediocre Colorado State on 11/24, watched Saint Louis (11/28) and Fullerton (12/2) take them to the limit and then lost at home to Nevada on 12/8.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">The Huskies expected to be 7-1 off a cupcake schedule, but instead sit at 4-4. Even if they run the table leading into a 12/29 road game with tough UConn, Romar's standing will be in trouble at 8-4 when he should have been 11-1 against a soft schedule. Unless his team rips the Pac 12 apart in conference play, and given their performance to date I strongly doubt they'll even win all four of these upcoming easy games, I have doubts Romar keeps his job.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Compare this to the 6-4 Washington State Cougars, a fellow state of Washington team that while improving isn't expected to make the NCAA Tournament and might even be a hard sell for the 2nd tier NIT. They narrowly lost to 10th ranked Gonzaga, took a narrow loss to lesser but tough Pepperdine, and took expected losses to Kansas and Texas A&amp;M... but have had little trouble beating the weaker foes on their schedule. EWU, Utah Valley, AR-Pine Bluff, Idaho, Portland... all easily dispatched cupcakes. Fresno State was a tougher opponent and still the Cougs won.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">If the Cougs can beat such teams, the Huskies and their top 25-50 talent should have had no trouble with their early schedule. Instead, true to Lorenzo Romar form, they found a way to sweat and lose winnable games. Having a young team (which is the current case with UW) is never an excuse in a sport where teams contend and win national titles with freshman and sophomores leading the charge all the time.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Lorenzo Romar has done good things with the UW program, but it looks like the time has come for him to go.</div>http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2012/12/washington-huskies-basketball-its.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-7713286252631920957Sun, 09 Dec 2012 17:46:00 +00002016-01-20T09:47:33.041-08:00Fumblin' Rebels: Can UNLV football ever succeed?<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">I had the fortune of growing up in Las Vegas, right down the street from one of the most exciting college basketball teams in NCAA history. Under coach Jerry Tarkanian, the UNLV Runnin' Rebels frequently challenged for the NCAA Tournament Championship, actually did win it in 1990 and almost won it before a dubious Final Four loss in 1991. Since Vegas had no pro sports teams of note, UNLV basketball pretty much became the local hometown team and, through tough times, has remained the epicenter of Vegas local sports fandom to this day.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">As for the UNLV football team....<br /><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbias.com/2012/12/09/fumblin-rebels-can-unlv-football-ever-succeed/unlvfootball/" href="http://wcoastbias.com/2012/12/09/fumblin-rebels-can-unlv-football-ever-succeed/unlvfootball/" rel="attachment wp-att-1672" style="color: #00aadc;"><img alt="UNLVFootball" class="size-medium wp-image-1672 alignleft" data-mce-src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/unlvfootball.jpg?w=300" height="217" src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/unlvfootball.jpg?w=300" style="border: 0px; float: left; height: auto; margin: 16px 16px 16px 0px; max-width: 100%;" width="300" /></a>From where I sit in Seattle, Washington State Fans right now are watching the football team go through an extended dead period. Coach Mike Leach is trying to dig the Cougs out of the doldrums, and along with the recent Apple Cup victory they're showing signs of finally returning to relevance.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">The Cougs' worst, however, pales in comparison to how hopeless the UNLV program has been since the 1980's (when Harvey Hyde had the services of future NFLers Randall Cunningham and Ickey Woods). Save for an handful of 6 to 8 win seasons, UNLV has shown little in D-1/FBS play. That narrow win the Cougs had over UNLV earlier this season in Las Vegas? That if anything says more about how much the Cougs were struggling at the time than how good the UNLV football program is. UNLV capped off a 2-11 season a few weeks ago with a convincing 48-10 loss to Hawaii, who with that rout improved themselves to 3-9.<br /><img alt="" class="wp-more-tag mce-wp-more" data-mce-placeholder="1" data-mce-resize="false" data-wp-more-text="" data-wp-more="more" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" style="background: url(&quot;images/more.png&quot;) 50% 50% repeat-y scroll transparent; border-radius: 0px; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; cursor: default; display: block; height: 16px; margin: 15px auto 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 652.797px;" title="Read more..." /><br />Since Harvey Hyde's departure, UNLV coaches have watched the program dissolve into irrelevance. Coaches and records:</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Wayne Nunnely (1986-1989): 6-5, 5-6, 4-7, 4-7.<br />Jim Strong (1990-1993): 4-7, 4-7, 6-5, 3-8.<br />Jeff Horton (1994-1998): 7-5, 2-9, 1-11, 3-8, 0-11.<br />John Robinson (1999-2004): 3-8, 8-5, 4-7, 5-7, 6-6, 2-9<br />Mike Sanford (2005-2009): 2-9, 2-10, 2-10, 5-7, 5-7<br />Bobby Hauck (2010-now): 2-10, 1-11, 2-11</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">(Note that under Nunnely and Strong that UNLV played in the lowly Big West conference, with competition so weak that most of those teams probably belonged in D-1AA... and yet they still posted the above records. Horton played his first two seasons in the Big West before UNLV joined an oversized Western Athletic Conference that included a few of those Big West pushovers. After Horton was let go UNLV joined the Mountain West Conference.)</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">The program had a glimmer of life under Horton and Robinson, only to eventually dissolve once the momentum failed to sustain.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">UNLV has also taken some embarrassing losses. Strong's final year included a loss to then-D-1AA North Texas. Just last year UNLV not only dropped a home game to FCS squad Southern Utah but was routed 41-16. UNLV's annual game with Nevada for the Fremont Cannon (their version of the Apple Cup) hasn't been much of a contest: Nevada's won the last eight meetings and 18 of the last 24. In one Fremont Cannon game, Nevada committed five turnovers against UNLV... yet still gained 699 yards.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Time and again pundits, athletic officials and directors alike have suggested disbanding the UNLV football program. The team facilities are middling. The home stadium is situated in a swampy hole several miles east of campus on the edge of town.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">And coaches have one of the hardest recruiting sells in the country. It's hard enough convincing a talented player to come play for a bad football team in a so-so conference. Try convincing someone's parents that getting an education and playing four years in Las Vegas, the debaucherous party outpost of the world, is a good idea. The program gets middling support from the University officials, and students and locals just don't care about the football team.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">As someone who attended UNLV out of high school, I can attest that the bulk of the team's fiercely loyal supporters could probably fill a meeting room. You get an additional straggling bunch of casual fans and bored students at each of the home games, but mostly the football team plays home games to a horde of sun-scorched empty seats in a dusty swamp.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">So I can see arguments to dissolve that football team. Coach after coach has come in looking to right the ship, only to pack his boxes and unceremoniously depart a few years and dozens of losses later.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">What would it take to rebuild the UNLV football program? It goes without saying that the team is going to have to do it without significant community, campus and University support and without any leverage to recruit four and five star talent.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Let's bear in mind, Coug Fans, that Mike Leach is facing a somewhat similar situation in Pullman. The Cougs have a much richer history and tradition, granted, but Bill Doba left the team in tatters and asking top players to come to a hot-and-cold outpost in Eastern Washington to help rebuild a Pac 12 doormat is a hard sell.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">But so was recruiting kids to play in Lubbock, TX for a Big 12 doormat. And Mike Leach turned Texas Tech into a high scoring college football powerhouse through his trademark Air Raid offense. The success he assembled from scratch compelled Tech to spend on upgrades to the program while filling the stadium and bringing new fans and support to the program. He is one of many pieces of proof that lacking allure and resources itself cannot prevent a coach from rebuilding a football program.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Despite his previous success coaching FCS school Montana, I don't think that current UNLV coach Bobby Hauck has the answers. After his 2nd year the program appears nowhere closer to relevance, is still getting stomped by fellow FBS doormats and I have a feeling he will get the axe before his recruiting and discipline efforts manifest into any sort of results.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Most of all, I don't find his offensive and defensive schemes all that creative, and I think the key to turning a program around is to bring in a unique scheme that will build in an edge the team can eventually exploit.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">- Leach's Air Raid is the weekend pickup game edition of the run and shoot, overloading the secondary and having the QB throw to a receiver as soon as possible. Purdue ran a similar bunch-style spread offense that turned Drew Brees and Kyle Orton into stars. Even when the defense knows what's coming they're forced to bench front linemen and play backup DBs, plus the pace of the offense can wear down the defense.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">- Teams like military academies Air Force and Navy live off the wishbone and triple option, running the ball every down with 3-4 backs and overwhelming defensive fronts into leaving open gaps even when said defenses stack the box on every play.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">- Urban Meyer's spread option turns every play into a wildcard, rolling the QB out and giving him the option to throw, run an option play with the tailback or bootleg it himself. Defending the spread option is difficult because if the defense overcommits any one way, the offense can exploit the resulting weakness.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">If a coach is going to turn UNLV around, he's got to bring a<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-weight: bold !important;">gimmick</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>to the table that will give this team an identity other than the team everyone else beats the crap out of. He's got to give an opposing coach something to scheme against. And success with such an offense will reduce the burden on the defense to perform time and again when the offense stalls, a contributing factor to bad games like the aforementioned 699 yard game against Nevada. If the offense can consistently hold onto the football instead of going three-and-out or committing turnovers, that lessens the load on the defense.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">A coach also has to bring<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-weight: bold !important;">a sense of discipline</strong>. UNLV had a productive run and shoot style offense under Jeff Horton, but he didn't exhibit the strong leadership needed to keep his team disciplined and in-line, which ultimately contributed to his undoing.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Even though they struggled again this season, the Cougs have experienced a 180 in terms of the discipline Leach has demanded of his charges. The dismissal of star receiver Marquess Wilson was the tip of the iceberg in regards to Leach demanding much more of his players than his predecessor did. The team continued to struggle, but in holding them to greater accountability Leach not only set the table for this year's Apple Cup upset of the Huskies but likely for future success in coming seasons. By creating a culture of discipline, pride and accountability Mike Leach is making it clear that, whether or not failure happens, it's not going to be accepted with resignation but received with unrelenting resolve to use it as a lesson for improvement.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">The only place a UNLV coach and his team can look to turn the program around is in the mirror: They need to<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-weight: bold !important;">trust the current players</strong>. He can't just wait for better recruits to come along, because as his predecessors found out they're not coming. To paraphrase Rick Pitino, Ickey Woods and Randall Cunningham aren't walking through that door. The guys who are getting their asses kicked right now will need to be the guys you trust tomorrow to turn the program around. In most cases it's not their lack of talent holding them and the team back but their lack of training and tools. A unique scheme will give them those tools, and the unwavering discipline of a strong leader will instill the training to use those tools. A name guy isn't going to provide those tools all that much better than any no-name coach, provided that coach has a philosophy and scheme that his players can utilize to their advantage.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Waiting for "your guys" cannot be an excuse. Mike Leach is recruiting for players who better suit his system today, but he did not and will not use the "your guys" excuse for his team's failures. He is working hard with today's guys to turn that program around, just as he did with the guys he inherited at Texas Tech.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">UNLV football, hopeless as it looks, is capable of turning things around if they want to, and they can hire the right coach. They don't need a new stadium on-campus. They don't need million dollar training facilities and they don't need superstar recruits or a name brand coach. They just need a strong-willed coach who brings with him a unique system that can exploit opponents, plus the strength to develop a culture of discipline and accountability and a willingness to trust the guys who are there today to implement his system and work their hardest to succeed in it.</div>http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2012/12/fumblin-rebels-can-unlv-football-ever.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-5804019695526871380Thu, 22 Nov 2012 17:32:00 +00002016-01-20T09:34:08.340-08:0049ers QB Alex Smith, entitlement, and the magic of Urban Meyer<div class="mceTemp" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"> <dl class="wp-caption alignright" data-mce-style="width: 300px;" id="attachment_1473" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: none; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; margin: 0px 0px 16px 16px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; text-align: center; width: 300px;"><dt class="wp-caption-dt" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; overflow: hidden;"><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/smith-kaepernick.jpg" href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/smith-kaepernick.jpg" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; color: #00aadc;"><img alt="" class="size-medium wp-image-1473" data-mce-src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/smith-kaepernick.jpg?w=300" src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/smith-kaepernick.jpg?w=300" height="203" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; border: 0px none; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" title="Smith Kaepernick" width="300" /></a></dt><dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: rgb(243, 246, 248); color: #4f748e; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 16px;">Alex Smith (#11) has led the 49ers offense with splendid results, but Colin Kaepernick (#7) showed in last Monday night's 49ers win over the Bears that he may be the better QB for the 49ers.</dd></dl></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">San Francisco 49ers QB Alex Smith suffered a concussion a couple weeks ago, leading coach Jim Harbaugh to turn to 2nd year backup Colin Kaepernick, a mobile and talented prospect out of Nevada. Last Monday Kaepernick did well (16 for 23, 243 yds, 2 TD, no picks) against a tough Chicago Bears defense in leading San Francisco to<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201211190sfo.htm" href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201211190sfo.htm" style="color: #00aadc;">a convincing 32-7 win</a>.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Despite Alex Smith's success and the 49ers sitting at 7-2-1 with Smith playing most of those games, Harbaugh faced a QB controversy if Smith was healthy for this Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints. Kaepernick is being groomed as the QB of the future (and has seen some action out of Wildcat packages), but in shredding one of the NFL's top defenses in a high profile game it now appears that Kaepernick has the talent in the present to lead the 49ers offense.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Harbaugh first stated he was<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://espn.go.com/chicago/nfl/story/_/id/8654960/jim-harbaugh-says-san-francisco-49ers-starting-quarterback-determined-hot-hand-alex-smith-colin-kaepernick" href="http://espn.go.com/chicago/nfl/story/_/id/8654960/jim-harbaugh-says-san-francisco-49ers-starting-quarterback-determined-hot-hand-alex-smith-colin-kaepernick" style="color: #00aadc;">willing to go with the 'hot hand'</a>, i.e. play the QB who is currently playing well... indicating he was going to go with Kaepernick even if Smith was healthy. Despite<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/harbaugh-49ers-could-mix-match-215457708--nfl.html" href="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/harbaugh-49ers-could-mix-match-215457708--nfl.html" style="color: #00aadc;">not formally committing with the media to either Smith or Kaepernick</a>, sources indicate that regardless of Smith's health (and jury's out on whether Smith is 100% back from his concussion or not)<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://www.ninersnation.com/2012/11/21/3678430/49ers-starting-quarterback-controversy-colin-kaepernick-alex-smith-jim-harbaugh" href="http://www.ninersnation.com/2012/11/21/3678430/49ers-starting-quarterback-controversy-colin-kaepernick-alex-smith-jim-harbaugh" style="color: #00aadc;">Harbaugh will go with Kaepernick this Sunday</a><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>and possibly beyond.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Fan reaction is mixed, but<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/13lp3t/colin_kaepernick_will_start_at_qb_sunday_for_sf/" href="http://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/13lp3t/colin_kaepernick_will_start_at_qb_sunday_for_sf/" style="color: #00aadc;">an uncomfortable lot of 49ers fans are upset with the decision</a><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>because they believe Alex Smith's embattled career path and recent success entitles him to the starting role.<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8661115/49ers-qb-alex-smith-deserves-start-healthy" href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8661115/49ers-qb-alex-smith-deserves-start-healthy" style="color: #00aadc;">ESPN's LZ Granderson has also jumped on that bandwagon</a>.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Let's talk about entitlement.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><img alt="" class="wp-more-tag mce-wp-more" data-mce-placeholder="1" data-mce-resize="false" data-wp-more-text="" data-wp-more="more" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" style="background: url(&quot;images/more.png&quot;) 50% 50% repeat-y scroll transparent; border-radius: 0px; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; cursor: default; display: block; height: 16px; margin: 15px auto 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 652.797px;" title="Read more..." />I'll digress from NFL football a second, go out on a limb and cite entitlement as the #1 obstacle in improving the Seattle Mariners. How many players have the M's kept well past their expiration date in key roles, refusing to replace or bench them, due to a sense that they were entitled to their everyday roles, entitled to a chance to hit/pitch out of slumps? Just some obvious examples: Carl Everett, Ken Griffey Jr.'s last run, Jose Vidro, Miguel Olivo's recent run, Bret Boone, Rich Aurilia, Jeff Cirillo... yes, even Ichiro in 2012... relievers like Norm Charlton, Eddie Guardado, Rick White, Jose Mesa. Even when it was clear to the naked eye that those guys were hurting the team, management not only kept them in the lineup but in key lineup slots and roles out of a sense of veteran entitlement.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Entitlement is entirely a subjective social construct that depends on the judgment of whoever is making the decision to entitle someone or not. Even our laws, up to the US Constitution, exist because of sociopolitical choices made by our government leaders. They could decide tomorrow to take them all away, for any reason legitimate or otherwise: That these laws continue to exist are a matter of collective choice. To a lesser extent, any decision that someone is entitled to something is purely a subjective choice on the part of whoever makes that decision.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">To say that a player should not be benched because of a subjective belief that he<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><i>deserves</i><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>to keep his role has no basis in reason or reality.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Alex Smith has had an embattled career on a franchise that until Harbaugh arrived as coach had an erratic sense of direction. Surrounded by a revolving door of limited talent and poor coaching, Smith floundered when he did get to play and<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://blogs.mercurynews.com/49ers/2008/09/11/rocky-bernard-looks-back-on-fateful-sack-of-smith/" href="http://blogs.mercurynews.com/49ers/2008/09/11/rocky-bernard-looks-back-on-fateful-sack-of-smith/" style="color: #00aadc;">almost had his career literally crushed</a>. Smith healed up and Harbaugh arrived after turning Stanford into a college football powerhouse, quickly developing the same sort of solid running game and defense as at Stanford. With surprising quickness the 49ers became a winner... and Alex Smith suddenly became an effective QB in Harbaugh's system, bolstered by star veteran tailback Frank Gore, improved front line blocking and a vastly improved defense covering his back.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Like managers in baseball, quarterbacks in football are frequently given far, far more credit and blame for their team's fortunes than is deserved. There are some cases where it's somewhat justified: The QB of a pass-heavy air attack like Drew Brees in New Orleans (or any run and shoot QB ever) is obviously largely responsible for his offense's fortunes. But even then the playcalling of the coaches and coordinators plays a large role in what the QB can and can't do: Think about the run-first playcalling of the Seahawks, the limited nature of the pass plays called, and consider what effect that has on Russell Wilson's ability to lead the offense.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">When the 49ers were a disorganized mess, Alex Smith struggled badly. When the 49ers built a solid team around him, Alex Smith succeeded. You could do this with most NFL QBs and see largely similar results (ask Trent Dilfer about<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200101280nyg.htm" href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200101280nyg.htm" style="color: #00aadc;">how he got his Super Bowl ring</a>). It's only when you have very talented exceptions to the rule<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbias.com/2012/11/11/andrew-luck-is-carrying-the-colts-on-his-back-for-real/" href="http://wcoastbias.com/2012/11/11/andrew-luck-is-carrying-the-colts-on-his-back-for-real/" style="color: #00aadc;">like Andrew Luck, or Peyton Manning during his final Colts seasons</a><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>that you see good QBs carry lesser teams. And it's rare you see exceptionally bad QBs bring an otherwise great team down, because obviously a coach will either bench a bad QB if he has a potentially better option on the roster, or rework the offense to minimize the responsibility that QB has for carrying the offense.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Alex Smith has a gaudy 104.1 QB rating after 9 starts in 2012. He has completed 152 of 217 passes (70%) for 1731 yards, 13 TDs and 5 INT. Over the previous three seasons he did post solid numbers (81.5 rating in 10 starts in in 2009, 82.1 in 10 starts in 2010, 90.7 in a full season in 2011).</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">So don't take the following as a statement that I think Alex Smith is a bad QB. And of course let's assume for this discussion that both he and Colin Kaepernick are healthy: Obviously if he's still suffering effects from his concussion then Colin should start regardless. But I don't think Alex Smith is a great QB who is being held back by circumstance, or one that deserves Franchise QB status. In fact, I consider him one of the most overrated QB prospects of all time.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Alex Smith played his college ball at the University of Utah under coach Urban Meyer, who famously turned Utah into a BCS title contender with his spread option. Smith saw incredible success in this system, throwing 47 TDs to 8 INT in 25 NCAA starts before being selected #1 overall by the 49ers in the 2005 draft.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">However, two caveats. Urban Meyer got the job at Utah by having done the same thing at Bowling Green, producing two bowl seasons at BGU and making a mid-major star out of QB Josh Harris. Harris did not get the attention Smith got, drafted in the 6th round of the 2004 draft by the Baltimore Ravens and bouncing around several NFL benches before retiring in 2008 to focus on advertising (he briefly came out of retirement to play in the Continental Indoor Football League).</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">And following Alex Smith, Urban Meyer once again parlayed his success into a new and greater role, taking the coaching job at Florida and turning them into a BCS title contender. His most famous QB pupil threw for 9286 yards, 88 TDs and 15 INT in 55 career starts and won the 2007 Heisman Trophy.</div><div class="mceTemp" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"> <dl class="wp-caption alignleft" data-mce-style="width: 300px;" id="attachment_1468" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: none; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: left; margin: 0px 16px 16px 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; text-align: center; width: 300px;"><dt class="wp-caption-dt" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; overflow: hidden;"><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/tebow.jpg" href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/tebow.jpg" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; color: #00aadc;"><img alt="" class="size-medium wp-image-1468" data-mce-src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/tebow.jpg?w=300" src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/tebow.jpg?w=300" height="200" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; border: 0px none; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" title="Tebow" width="300" /></a></dt><dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: rgb(243, 246, 248); color: #4f748e; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 16px;">If this guy's passes can't hit the backside of a barn, how did Urban Meyer get him to throw for 9286 yards and 88 TDs, win a Heisman Trophy + lead Florida to BCS title contention?</dd></dl></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">That QB, Tim Tebow, is considered a deeply flawed media magnet punchline with insufficient ability to be an NFL QB. Alex Smith succeeded in the exact same system that allowed a deeply flawed, allegedly incapable QB to throw for over 9000 yards, 88TDs and win a Heisman Trophy. Think about that.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Alex Smith is probably a better skilled QB than Tim Tebow, but the idea that he is a top prospect superstar soiled by circumstance is an overstatement. In actuality, the 49ers vastly overrated Alex Smith when they drafted him, and what the 49ers have right now is somewhere in the middle: A decent but not great QB that can perform well if surrounded by the right talent.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">That said, QB is thus an upgradeable position for the 49ers and the 49ers knew it, drafting Colin Kaepernick under Jim Harbaugh's watch with the 36th overall pick in the 2011 draft. Now that Kaepernick is showing in the present that he can lead the 49ers offense, Harbaugh is understandably considering the notion that his new QB is not only ready to take the reins but is superior to his incumbent QB.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Alex Smith is not a sacred cow, and should not be kept in the starting QB slot out of a sense of entitlement. He is probably at the zenith of his upside as an NFL QB, a man whose reputation as a pro has never fit his actual ability. Colin Kaepernick should not be denied the opportunity to start, to not only grow his already solid ability with experience but offer the 49ers a better chance to win as the starter than Smith does... just because of some mythical sense that Smith's success in a situation that maximizes his ability entitles him to a starting role.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Ask fans of the Seattle Mariners how a sense of veteran entitlement worked out for their team.</div>http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2012/11/49ers-qb-alex-smith-entitlement-and.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-6892769300017114034Sat, 17 Nov 2012 17:30:00 +00002016-01-20T09:31:37.993-08:00Huskies football is on the upswing, this season and beyond<div class="mceTemp" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"> <dl class="wp-caption alignright" data-mce-style="width: 300px;" id="attachment_1423" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: none; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; margin: 0px 0px 16px 16px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; text-align: center; width: 300px;"><dt class="wp-caption-dt" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; overflow: hidden;"><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/huskiesfootball2012.jpg" href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/huskiesfootball2012.jpg" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; color: #00aadc;"><img alt="" class="size-medium wp-image-1423" data-mce-src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/huskiesfootball2012.jpg?w=300" src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/huskiesfootball2012.jpg?w=300" height="200" style="border: 0px none; cursor: move; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" title="HuskiesFootball2012" width="300" /></a></dt><dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: rgb(243, 246, 248); color: #4f748e; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 16px;">Bishop Sankey and Huskies fans are thrilled for the present, and future, of UW football.</dd></dl></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">I want to look at UW football. Four weeks after their season appeared to many in big trouble at 3-4, Husky football suddenly pimpslapped then-undefeated Oregon State, went into Cal's house and beat the Bears, handily disposed of a weakish Utah squad... and suddenly they're 6-4, facing a real prospect of 8-4 and a New Year's bowl game. Not bad for a squad that wasn't sure a month ago they'd even finish .500.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Despite being the 8th best team in the Pac 12, I had no bones that the Huskies were a legit bowl-caliber FBS program (<a data-mce-href="http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm" href="http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm" style="color: #00aadc;">Sagarin has UW currently 34th in the country</a>). Earlier this season<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbias.com/2012/10/11/this-just-in-the-pac-12-is-a-real-power-conference/" href="http://wcoastbias.com/2012/10/11/this-just-in-the-pac-12-is-a-real-power-conference/" style="color: #00aadc;">I talked about the Pac 12 being one of the nation's best conferences</a>, and UW having one of the nation's toughest schedules. That definitely hasn't changed: Sagarin currently notes the Huskies schedule as 2nd toughest in the nation and he still firmly sits the Pac 12 as the 3rd strongest conference in college football. They've done it with one of the better defenses in college football, a come-and-go running game led by Bishop Sankey and unspectacular but capable play from QB Keith Price.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">There was little doubt in my mind the Huskies were one of college football's better teams despite not even being in the top half of their own conference and even while at 3-4. Husky hand wringing in Seattle amused me, given the toughness of their schedule and not their quality of play was the primary culprit for their struggles, and that an easier schedule the rest of the way indicated they would win down the stretch. I didn't expect the upset of Oregon State, granted, but I still figured they'd be a 7-5 or so team.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">If anything, the Pac 12's toughness indicates that the Huskies probably don't need to book such a tough schedule in coming seasons. With a conference loaded with legit challengers, the Huskies can put a McNeese State or a UNLV (or two) on the schedule and ensure themselves a better shot at a 10-11 win season (if not a shot at a national title should things break right) without diminishing their stature via strength of schedule.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Maybe that was by design: Maybe coach Steve Sarkisian knew that with a young team of newcomers and newly minted starters that, while good, they didn't have the material to run the table and wanted to temper expectations for 2013... which wouldn't have happened if the team went 9-3 or 10-2 against a more normal schedule. If they finish that well in 2012, expectations for 2013 skyrocket: They have to at least do that well, if not compete for the national championship, or fans will be disappointed. Ask Frank Solich how well finishing "only" 9-3 did for him before that record and higher expectations got him fired from Nebraska.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Sarkisian probably had faith his team could net a bowl game against a loaded schedule, and with the team displaced from Husky Stadium during renovations, why not make this a battle-test season?</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Not that this absolutely was the intent (I don't know that and am just taking a loosely educated guess), but whether or not it was by design Sarkisian has set the table for an improved Husky team to take a big step forward in 2013.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">For now, UW faces a good look at 8-4 and a chance to impress at a higher profile bowl game. Given a schedule that would have crushed the average football team, as far as I'm concerned they've already had a very impressive season.</div>http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2012/11/huskies-football-is-on-upswing-this.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-3359029282843745907Sun, 11 Nov 2012 17:16:00 +00002016-01-20T09:17:12.820-08:00Andrew Luck is carrying the Colts on his back. For real.<div class="mceTemp" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"> <dl class="wp-caption alignright" data-mce-style="width: 300px;" id="attachment_1345" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: none; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; margin: 0px 0px 16px 16px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; text-align: center; width: 300px;"><dt class="wp-caption-dt" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; overflow: hidden;"><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/andrewluck.jpg" href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/andrewluck.jpg" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; color: #00aadc;"><img alt="" class="size-medium wp-image-1345" data-mce-src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/andrewluck.jpg?w=300" height="187" src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/andrewluck.jpg?w=300" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; border: 0px none; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" title="AndrewLuck" width="300" /></a></dt><dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: rgb(243, 246, 248); color: #4f748e; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 16px;">With little help from the running game and a crappy defense backing him up (aka the same Colts team that went 2-14 last year), Andrew Luck has led the Colts to a 6-3 start.</dd></dl></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Frequently when a team wins with a new QB at the helm, the QB gets an inordinate amount of credit when in reality, the rest of the team played a large role while the QB was just one of several factors.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">But right now the Indianapolis Colts, with rookie and #1 draft pick Andrew Luck at QB, sit at 6-3. The year before the Colts finished a disastrous 2-14 following the loss of franchise QB Peyton Manning, a loss that starkly illustrated how well Manning's play had disguised the Colts' numerous weaknesses once Manning wasn't there to carry the team on his back.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Without Manning<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff2011" href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff2011" style="color: #00aadc;">the Colts were 27th in offensive efficiency</a><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>according to Football Outsiders, 27th with the pass and 22nd with the run.<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2011" href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2011" style="color: #00aadc;">The defense was a fairly crappy 23rd</a>, and the Colts finished a fairly crappy 2-14, putting head coach Jim Caldwell's standing in suitably crappy condition to get fired after the season.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">With much of the same personnel in 2012, the Colts have improved under Luck.<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff2012" href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff2012" style="color: #00aadc;">The offense efficiency is now 15th</a>, in large part thanks to the passing game under Luck. The yards per play improved from a<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2011/" href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2011/" style="color: #00aadc;">4th worst 4.8 ypp in 2011</a><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>to<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2012/" href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2012/" style="color: #00aadc;">a league average 5.5 in 2012</a>. The team rebounded from the 2nd worst first downs (252 in 16 games) to the 2nd most 1st downs as of today (213 in 9 games). Over 2/3 of those 1st downs have come via the pass (128 passing 1sts, 60 rushing 1sts).</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><img alt="" class="wp-more-tag mce-wp-more" data-mce-placeholder="1" data-mce-resize="false" data-wp-more-text="" data-wp-more="more" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" style="background: transparent url(&quot;images/more.png&quot;) repeat-y scroll 50% 50%; border-radius: 0px; border: 0px none; box-shadow: none; display: block; height: 16px; margin: 15px auto 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px none; padding: 0px; width: 652.797px;" title="Read more..." /></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">This improvement on offense comes despite a useful but inefficient running game (985 total yards, 13th best, but a mediocre 3.9 ypg, 19th best). Luck has had to throw an average of 40 passes per game, and hasn't been Drew Brees level efficient (57.5% completion rate, 10 TDs to 9 INT and an okay-ish 79.1 QB rating), but has average 292 yards per game and has led two 4th quarter comebacks for the Colts this season.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Far and away his leading receiver is career Colt Reggie Wayne, who had a trio of 100 catch seasons under Peyton Manning but, coming off a 75 catch campaign in 2011, already has 69 through 9 games, is averaging a career high 103 yards per game and is on pace for a career high 123 catches. Journeyman Donnie Avery (38 catches) is on track for his best season yet, plus rookies Dwayne Allen (25 catches) and T.Y. Hilton (24 catches) have contributed as well. Save for Wayne (and again he wasn't a game changer last year during the 2-14 campaign), I wouldn't call any of those players an equal or greater catalyst to the Colts' turnaround than Andrew Luck.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Oh, and the defense? Football Outsiders not only shows that they've regressed, but<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2012" href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2012" style="color: #00aadc;">by defensive efficiency</a><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>they are actually the worst defense in the NFL. Even by<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/2012.htm" href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/2012.htm" style="color: #00aadc;">more conventional stats</a><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>the Colts defense is still a liability, 18th best in yards allowed and allowing a fairly awful 4.7 yards per gain on the ground (29th best).</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">So with much of the same personnel on both sides of the ball except for a couple of halfway decent 3rd round picks at receiver, AND with coach Chuck Pagano on hiatus to battle cancer, AND with a mediocre running game that's forced the passing game to win games by itself, AND with an even worse defense than last year's 2-14 team... Andrew Luck has led the Colts to a 6-3 record.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">It looks like the Colts have found their franchise QB. Just wait until they build a better team around him. Like Peyton Manning did before him, Andrew Luck may lead an NFL dynasty in Indianapolis for years to come.</div>http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2012/11/andrew-luck-is-carrying-colts-on-his.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-785127320577015270Sun, 28 Oct 2012 15:36:00 +00002016-01-20T09:17:49.520-08:00Stronger and Weaker, Part Two: NFL teams that are better they currently look<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">In<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbias.com/2012/10/27/stronger-and-weaker-part-one-nfl-teams-that-arent-as-good-as-they-currently-look/" href="http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2012/10/stronger-and-weaker-part-one-nfl-teams.html" style="color: #00aadc;">Part One of this two part series</a><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>I reviewed three NFL teams that I believe are weaker than their records, rankings and reputations indicate.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Here in Part Two I'll point out three teams currently<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2012/10/25/3554102/nfl-power-rankings-week-8-ravens-bears-49ers-packers-texans" href="http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2012/10/25/3554102/nfl-power-rankings-week-8-ravens-bears-49ers-packers-texans" style="color: #00aadc;">rated</a><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>lower than I think they are capable. Don't be surprised to see a surge from these three teams. As I mentioned in Part One, I'll leave the Seahawks off this list as you loyal readers are well aware of our collective take that the Seahawks are probably better and stronger a team than expected.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">These teams are more than meets the eye:</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><img alt="" class="wp-more-tag mce-wp-more" data-mce-placeholder="1" data-mce-resize="false" data-wp-more-text="" data-wp-more="more" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" style="background: url(&quot;images/more.png&quot;) 50% 50% repeat-y scroll transparent; border-radius: 0px; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; cursor: default; display: block; height: 16px; margin: 15px auto 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 652.797px;" title="Read more..." /></div><div class="mceTemp" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"> <dl class="wp-caption alignright" data-mce-style="width: 300px;" id="attachment_1229" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: none; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; margin: 0px 0px 16px 16px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; text-align: center; width: 300px;"><dt class="wp-caption-dt" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; overflow: hidden;"><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/stlouisrams.jpg" href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/stlouisrams.jpg" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; color: #00aadc;"><img alt="" class="size-medium wp-image-1229" data-mce-src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/stlouisrams.jpg?w=300" src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/stlouisrams.jpg?w=300" height="205" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; border: 0px none; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" title="StLouisRams" width="300" /></a></dt><dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: rgb(243, 246, 248); color: #4f748e; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 16px;">Jeff Fisher would like to challenge the conventional wisdom that his St Louis Rams are not a force to be reckoned with.</dd></dl></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><b style="font-weight: bold !important;">St Louis Rams</b>:</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Why look, it's the Seahawks friendly division rivals... the ones that play their home games in a giant warehouse and haven't been relevant since The Greatest Show on Turf. Under newly arrived coach Jeff Fisher, this rebuilding also-ran sits at a somewhat surprising 3-4 after back to back losses to the Dolphins and Packers. Still, fans and pundits aren't taking the Rams too seriously, with<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2012/10/25/3554102/nfl-power-rankings-week-8-ravens-bears-49ers-packers-texans" href="http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2012/10/25/3554102/nfl-power-rankings-week-8-ravens-bears-49ers-packers-texans" style="color: #00aadc;">rankings</a><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>seating the Rams around 21st or 22nd.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Part of that is prior reputation, sure: The Rams haven't posted a winning season since 2003 and with win #3 in Week 5 they blew past their win total from last year's 2-14 disaster season. It's going to take sustained success for NFL fans to buy into the Rams, especially in a tough NFC West where they need to outlast the mighty 49ers, a tough Seahawks squad and a similarly resurgent Cardinals team.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Yes, the offense still has work to do. Sam Bradford has yet to show consistency at QB. The offense itself is 24th in<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff2012" href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff2012" style="color: #00aadc;">DVOA per Football Outsiders (F.O.)</a>. Star back Steven Jackson is struggling and the rushing game is 16th in yardage. The Rams also showed uncanny ineffeciency in a recent loss to the Dolphins: Despite 462 yards and 22 first downs they only managed 14 points.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">But look at their opposition, the 4th toughest NFL schedule to date<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm" href="http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm" style="color: #00aadc;">per Sagarin ratings</a>. None of these teams would be considered easy outs: Detroit on the road, Washington (w/RGIII), the now-mighty Bears (in Chicago!), the brutal Seahawks, the green but similarly brutal Cardinals, upstart Miami (in Miami) and Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay. It's no surprise the offense has struggled to keep up. Few offenses could excel against that slate.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Against this opposition, their 20.1 ppg allowed is 9th fewest in the NFL. F.O. rates their<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2012" href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2012" style="color: #00aadc;">DVOA on defense</a><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>7th in the NFL, their pass defense 9th and run defense a respectable 15th, along with some of the least variance in the league (3rd least), illustrating consistency. I didn't even mention their superb rookie kicker Greg Zeuerlein, which extends their field goal range and maximizes scoring opportunities with his big leg.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Going into this season, I wouldn't have been surprised if the Rams finished that stretch 0-7. Instead the only convincing losses they've taken were to the two best teams (23-6 to Chicago and a closer than it looked 30-20 to Green Bay), they nearly beat Detroit and Miami, and they outlasted Washington and Seattle while disposing easily of Arizona. New England, their next opponent, might be the softest defense they've faced all year. Not that I'm sure of an upset, but it's distinctly possible.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">It's not going to get much easier for the Rams: They still have to play the 49ers twice, the resurgent Vikings and Bucs await, and they've got to face the Seahawks and Cards again. Five of their remaining games after their Week 9 bye week are on the road.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">But a couple of upsets aren't out of the question. In fact, I might even argue that they could be favorites against the Vikes, Cards and Bucs. Favorites! The Rams! I think this team that finished 2-14 last year could conceivably finish .500 this season.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Coach Jeff Fisher is for real, and so are the St Louis Rams.</div><div class="mceTemp" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"> <dl class="wp-caption alignright" data-mce-style="width: 300px;" id="attachment_1230" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: none; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; margin: 0px 0px 16px 16px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; text-align: center; width: 300px;"><dt class="wp-caption-dt" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; overflow: hidden;"><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/tampabaybucs.jpeg" href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/tampabaybucs.jpeg" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; color: #00aadc;"><img alt="" class="size-medium wp-image-1230" data-mce-src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/tampabaybucs.jpeg?w=300" src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/tampabaybucs.jpeg?w=300" height="225" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; border: 0px none; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" title="TampaBayBucs" width="300" /></a></dt><dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: rgb(243, 246, 248); color: #4f748e; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 16px;">Creamsicles for everyone! Josh Freeman and the rest of Greg Schiano's Tampa Bay Bucs are looking to crash a few victory formations down the stretch of this 2012 season.</dd></dl></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><b style="font-weight: bold !important;">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</b>:</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">An identity-lacking young team known for combative rookie coach Greg Schiano, the Bucs are the best of a group of NFC South also-rans at 3-4, far behind the currently undefeated Atlanta Falcons. Still, like the Rams no one is expecting much of the rebuilding Bucs... probably even less in fact: While we at West Coast Bias are a tad higher on the Bucs (20th), the bulk of other power rankings had the Bucs around 26th, perceiving the Bucs as a doormat... or at least they did before the Bucs throttled the more highly regarded Minnesota Vikings 36-17 this past Thursday.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">A look at the numbers shows that, big victory aside, this team is no doormat. This is one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL (26.3 ppg, 9th best), one of the better defenses (21.9 ppg, 12th), a team that nearly took out the Giants (34-41), Cowboys (10-16), Redskins (22-24) and Saints (28-35) in their four losses. Per F.O. defensive DVOA they have the #1 run defense in the NFL. Recent wins over the Vikings (36-17) and Chiefs (38-10) were convincing, and they've exceeded 100 team yards rushing in their last three games. They've generated multiple turnovers in five of their seven games while only committing seven total themselves.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">The offense is still okay to bleh, they have had somewhat easy defensive competition, and as young teams do the team's been inconsistent on both sides of the ball. But Greg Schiano has built this team to compete, and the Bucs' upcoming schedule has enough soft spots (Oakland, San Diego, Carolina are next) that the Bucs could get to, maybe above .500. Games against Atlanta, New Orleans and Denver make the later end of the schedule tougher, but a couple of upsets down the stretch could put the Bucs at .500 by the end of Schiano's first NFL season.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Unlike most teams you would rank 26th of 32 teams, the Tampa Bay Bucs are not a team opponents want to see on the other side of the field.</div><div class="mceTemp" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"> <dl class="wp-caption alignright" data-mce-style="width: 300px;" id="attachment_1231" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: none; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; margin: 0px 0px 16px 16px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; text-align: center; width: 300px;"><dt class="wp-caption-dt" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; overflow: hidden;"><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/detroitlions.jpg" href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/detroitlions.jpg" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; color: #00aadc;"><img alt="Barry Sanders would be like, &quot;Bitch, please&quot;" class="size-medium wp-image-1231" data-mce-src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/detroitlions.jpg?w=300" src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/detroitlions.jpg?w=300" height="244" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; border: 0px none; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" title="Matthew Stafford" width="300" /></a></dt><dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: rgb(243, 246, 248); color: #4f748e; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 16px;">Matthew Stafford and the Lions may be in prime position to cut back and reverse field on their 2-4 start. Wayne Fontes would be proud.</dd></dl></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><b style="font-weight: bold !important;">Detroit Lions</b>:</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbias.com/2012/10/26/things-of-importance-if-there-is-to-be-a-seahawks-victory-on-sunday/" href="http://wcoastbias.com/2012/10/26/things-of-importance-if-there-is-to-be-a-seahawks-victory-on-sunday/" style="color: #00aadc;">As Brett Miller alluded to</a>, the Lions being better than thought is not really a secret around here at West Coast Bias. But I don't mind going into a bit of detail as to what makes them better than their 23rd ranking and 2-4 record indicate.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Detroit's offense is 7th best in the NFL by offensive DVOA, despite having faced the 4th toughest defensive opposition. Matthew Stafford, Megatron et al can move the ball no matter how good your defense is. This offsets a suspect defense that has conversely done a so-so job (22nd in DVOA against the 24th toughest offensive opposition).</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Detroit does a good job in the field position battle.<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats2012" href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats2012" style="color: #00aadc;">F.O. drive stats</a><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>peg their net starting field position on both sides at 8th best overall. The defense allows a TD roughly once every seven drives, 7th best. Lions drives on offense average a 9th-best 34.08 yards per drive.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Yeah, they have trouble consistently executing and finishing drives on offense... though again that's been against tough defenses. It doesn't look like it'll get too much easier the rest of the way: Seahawks, Texans, the Packers twice, Falcons, Bears, oh my. But those defenses are mostly good rather than great... and Detroit's shown for the finishing issues that they can move the ball on tough defenses.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Also, they're an indoor team that's only got four road games left after a road heavy early schedule... and two of those road games are indoors anyway (Minnesota and Arizona). This is more the Lions element. The inconsistency problems, possibly a product of playing outdoors (often a dome team's kryptonite), could magically disappear for the Lions down the stretch.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">The economy may be dead meat in Detroit, but look for a revival from the football team in Ford Field. I wouldn't expect a championship run like the fellow hometown Tigers: Again, the Lions tend to shrivel up outdoors and should they somehow make the playoffs they'll have to go outside and win outside to make the Super Bowl. That probably isn't happening. If they make the playoffs, I'd expect Ndamukong Suh and the Lions to extract themselves from that situation quickly.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">But watch out for a late season run from the Lions that could bring back memories of Wayne Fontes and Barry Sanders.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">******</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">That concludes this two part series. As always, all of these teams are welcome to prove my guesstimated predictions wrong on the field.</div>http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2012/10/stronger-and-weaker-part-two-nfl-teams.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-7727808363849285821Sat, 27 Oct 2012 15:34:00 +00002016-01-20T08:35:37.086-08:00Stronger and Weaker, Part One: NFL teams that aren't as good as they currently look<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Every year teams get off to a hot start, a cold start, an unassuming start... and fans + pundits alike mold impressions of those teams based on those starts. As the season wears on, teams show their true colors. Teams that looked good at 1st glance but didn't have the goods fade fast, and teams that looked shaky but were better than their stat lines rebound. In this two part series, I'm going to take a deeper look at the numbers and try to gauge which teams will defy the perception of their current records and rankings.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">I won't dwell on two obvious teams: If you check the weekly power rankings you're aware of my belief that the Falcons aren't as strong as their undefeated record indicates. And as a reader of this Seahawks-centric blog you know full well we think the Seahawks are a stronger team than their 3-4 record indicates.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Here in Part One, I'm going to focus on three teams that I think are weaker than people think.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><img alt="" class="wp-more-tag mce-wp-more" data-mce-placeholder="1" data-mce-resize="false" data-wp-more-text="" data-wp-more="more" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" style="background: url(&quot;images/more.png&quot;) 50% 50% repeat-y scroll transparent; border-radius: 0px; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; cursor: default; display: block; height: 16px; margin: 15px auto 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 652.797px;" title="Read more..." /></div><div class="mceTemp" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"> <dl class="wp-caption alignright" data-mce-style="width: 300px;" id="attachment_1223" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: none; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; margin: 0px 0px 16px 16px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; text-align: center; width: 300px;"><dt class="wp-caption-dt" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; overflow: hidden;"><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/eagles2.jpg" href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/eagles2.jpg" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; color: #00aadc;"><img alt="" class="size-medium wp-image-1223" data-mce-src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/eagles2.jpg?w=300" height="200" src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/eagles2.jpg?w=300" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; border: 0px none; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" title="Eagles" width="300" /></a></dt><dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: rgb(243, 246, 248); color: #4f748e; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 16px;">Hold on to the football, Michael Vick! The Eagles have enough problems on offense without your turnovers.</dd></dl></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold !important;">Philadelphia Eagles</strong>:</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Rankings paint a picture of a decent but flawed team (average power ranking is around 13th) led by a turnover prone Michael Vick. But a closer look reveals a mediocre squad, turnovers or not. The Eagles have eked their way to a 3-3 record with the 3rd fewest points in the league (17.2 ppg) despite an average schedule (full-strength Ravens, Giants and Steelers on one hand, Cleveland Arizona and Detroit on the other). All three of their wins were close, the schedule includes an inexcusable blowout loss in Arizona and an OT home loss to upstart Detroit.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Obviously turnovers were a huge culprit in preventing any resounding victories, and while one could argue that was variance and the team will reduce turnovers down the stretch, the much bigger and more fundamental problem lies with the running game. They have put up a respectable 732 yards in 6 games, but by offensive efficiency the Eagles offense is one of the least effective running teams in the NFL. Sure, Andy Reid's teams run a West Coast Offense and historically rely heavily on the pass. But run efficiency is a key to the run being an effective change of pace, and it hasn't been despite weak run defenses routinely stuffing the run.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">"But Steven you clown," you say, "They've played some of the toughest defenses in the NFL! Baltimore! Pittsburgh! Arizona! The Giants! Those dirty Lions!" Yeah, about those defenses... The reputations don't match a couple of those teams once you<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2012/opp.htm" href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2012/opp.htm" style="color: #00aadc;">look at the stats</a>. Baltimore for one has actually allowed the 3rd most rushing yards through the first 7 games (1000 total). The Giants are 6th worst at 885. And for their vicious reputation, the Cardinals are actually around the middle of the pack (846, 20th best overall). And of course Cleveland still blows.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">This never minds the pass defense, and once you get past the vicious front sevens these defenses get exploitable: The Giants have allowed 7.5 yards per pass, 4th worst in the NFL. The almighty Ravens have been 5th worst in passing first downs allowed (97). And of course Cleveland still blows.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Overall their defensive opposition has been among the 18th strongest in the NFL according to<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff2012" href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff2012" style="color: #00aadc;">Football Outsiders (F.O.) offensive stats</a>. The Eagles should have an offense in the NFL's upper half. Instead, F.O. has them pegged at 26th overall. The passing game, their bread and butter, is 27th. Yes, turnovers are a factor, but F.O.'s numbers are based on efficiency per play, and by that standard Philly's still not stacking up. The funny thing is that, even though they sacked defensive coordinator Juan Castillo during the season... the Eagles' defense has been pretty good: 9th best per<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2012" href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2012" style="color: #00aadc;">F.O.'s defensive DVOA stats</a>. If not for the D, the Eagles' season could look a lot worse. They are basically like the Seahawks, except with not much of a running game and far bigger mistakes. That's not a good combination.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">One factor that undercuts Philly's chances every winter... *is* the winter. Passing games suffer once the cold East Coast conditions of winter hit. Philly leans hard on their passing game, and even if Vick can cure his butterfingers problem the ice cold's going to hamper the passing game. If they're struggling on a per play basis to move the football now, I get the feeling the offense won't ever get going.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Andy Reid may want to start cleaning out his office right now.</div><div class="mceTemp" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"> <dl class="wp-caption alignright" data-mce-style="width: 300px;" id="attachment_1224" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: none; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; margin: 0px 0px 16px 16px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; text-align: center; width: 300px;"><dt class="wp-caption-dt" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; overflow: hidden;"><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/ravens.jpg" href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/ravens.jpg" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; color: #00aadc;"><img alt="" class="size-medium wp-image-1224" data-mce-src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/ravens.jpg?w=300" height="194" src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/ravens.jpg?w=300" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; border: 0px none; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" title="Ravens" width="300" /></a></dt><dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: rgb(243, 246, 248); color: #4f748e; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 16px;">A surprisingly frequent sight: A ballcarrier freely running past the Ravens secondary into open field.</dd></dl></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold !important;">Baltimore Ravens</strong>:</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Even before they lost Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb for the season, the Ravens defense, their alleged strength, was struggling. An unusually strong performance from their typically so-so offense masked those struggles to marvelous effect over a 5-1 start. But after being humbled old country way in a 43-13 loss to the Texans last week it looks like Rice, Flacco and Co may come floating back to Earth, the Ravens' performance and season hopes hurtling behind them to the ground at a much faster rate.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Even if the offense can lean on Ray Rice like old times, the defense is no longer a shut-down powerhouse. Rated 17th overall by F.O., the team has struggled against the run (23rd, and aside from F.O. I mentioned their 1000 yards surrendered on the ground) and not looked good against weak-ish competition on the other side: Allowing 486 yards to those aforementioned Eagles, 396 yards to an admittedly good Patriots team, but then 357 yards, 314 in the air, to... the BROWNS?! 214 yards rushing to lowly Kansas City?! 227 yards rushing to the Cowboys? The Ravens in all have surrendered the 5th most yards in the NFL (2800 to date; league average is 2323). Even by yards per play, at 5.4 ypp they are merely 15th. Opponents are avoiding three and outs 72.9% of the time, the 29th best rate in the NFL... i.e. they are moving the ball easily on the once vaunted Ravens defense.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Special teams is also an issue... not because of the kicking, which has honestly been good, but because of field position from the return game. Per<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats2012" href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats2012" style="color: #00aadc;">F.O.'s drive stats</a>, the offense's average starting position is their own 25-26 yard line, 25th best in the NFL. The defense has opponents starting from their own 27-28, 22nd best in the NFL.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">The Ravens win with great running and great defense. They can't win with merely okay to bleh defense, and giving their opponents an edge in field position. Look out below!</div><div class="mceTemp" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"> <dl class="wp-caption alignright" data-mce-style="width: 300px;" id="attachment_1225" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: none; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: right; margin: 0px 0px 16px 16px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; text-align: center; width: 300px;"><dt class="wp-caption-dt" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; overflow: hidden;"><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/steelers.jpg" href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/steelers.jpg" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; color: #00aadc;"><img alt="" class="size-medium wp-image-1225" data-mce-src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/steelers.jpg?w=300" height="164" src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/steelers.jpg?w=300" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; border: 0px none; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" title="Steelers" width="300" /></a></dt><dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="-webkit-user-drag: none; background: rgb(243, 246, 248); color: #4f748e; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 16px;">No matter what the team yardage stat sheet says, Troy Polamalu can't be thrilled at the number of points his Steelers have allowed... and who they've allowed them against.</dd></dl></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold !important;">Pittsburgh Steelers</strong>:</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Though rated as a playoff caliber team (average ranking from most sources is 12th)... a closer look indicates the 3-3 Steelers are more 7-9 than 10-6.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">Like the Ravens, the Steelers defense has a vaunted reputation that doesn't fit their current makeup. Like the Eagles, their running game is for show while they lean heavily on the passing game. Like both these teams, the Steelers are overrated.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">At first look, the base stats look good. They've allowed the 3rd fewest 1st downs in the league, the fewest yards in the league. What the hell is that clown Steven talking about?</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">How about giving up 34 points in a loss to lowly Oakland? Surrendering 26 to the hardscrabble Titans? They're 13th in points allowed (22.0 per game), 15th in yards allowed per drive (31.4 per), 25th in touchdowns allowed per drive (one every 4 drives; average is one in about 5), opponent avoid the three and out 71.6% of the time (26th). By DVOA, F.O. has the Steelers 24th overall. The run defense has allowed so few yards because opponents haven't run the ball on Pittsburgh (136 attempts is 3rd fewest). Teams may not be that great at moving the ball consistently on Pittsburgh, but they can score points.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">And this is against unimposing opposition to date: Denver's the toughest out in a bunch that includes the erratic Jets, lowly Oakland, turnover prone Philly, rebuilding Tennessee and struggling Cincinnati. Against that schedule (which<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm" href="http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm" style="color: #00aadc;">Sagarin ratings</a><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>dubbed the 29th toughest in the NFL) the Steelers have allowed an average number of points in a 3-3 start. Their only resounding win was against the Jets, and the Broncos beat them soundly. The schedule gets tougher (Redskins, Giants, similar but tough Baltimore twice, the Chargers and Cowboys) and a team that could only do average against such a cake schedule is probably going to have a rocky rest of the season.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">I didn't even get to their one dimensional offense. Even discarding their lack of focus on the run, F.O. notes their run game is 29th best on efficiency per run play. The pass game under Ben Roethlisberger has been legitimately strong (6th best), but even with that the offense is simply 12th most efficient overall. The Steelers offense is decent at its best, but only decent. Slow down Big Ben somehow, and you can probably shut down the Steelers.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">While many would agree it wouldn't be surprising to see the Steelers miss the playoffs... they certainly aren't the 12th best team in the league. Maybe the 12th worst.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><em><br /></em></div>http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2012/10/stronger-and-weaker-part-one-nfl-teams.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-8747966282090802162Fri, 19 Oct 2012 15:33:00 +00002016-01-20T09:12:49.360-08:00That Was Nothing To Be Ashamed Of, Hawks Fans<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><a data-mce-href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/hawks49ers2012.jpg" href="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/hawks49ers2012.jpg" style="color: #00aadc;"><img alt="" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-1106" data-mce-src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/hawks49ers2012.jpg?w=300" height="199" src="http://wcoastbiasdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/hawks49ers2012.jpg?w=300" style="border: 0px; float: right; height: auto; margin: 16px 0px 16px 16px; max-width: 100%;" title="Hawks49ers2012" width="300" /></a>The Seahawks took<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a data-mce-href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201210180sfo.htm" href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201210180sfo.htm" style="color: #00aadc;">a tough 13-6 loss last night</a><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>against the tough division rival 49ers in San Francisco, which featured five dropped Seahawks passes, dueling dominance from each team's featured tailback (Beast Mode 103 yards rushing, Frank Gore 131 yards rushing) and a chess match between two dominant defenses that did all they could not to give a yard more than necessary.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><a data-mce-href="http://mynorthwest.com/422/1672143/Seahawks-lose-while-learning-to-win" href="http://mynorthwest.com/422/1672143/Seahawks-lose-while-learning-to-win" style="color: #00aadc;">Mike Salk said his piece</a><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>on how he thought the loss was in many ways a win, and in many respects I've got to agree, Seahawks Fans. This could have easily been worse, but the Hawks showed in defeat that they definitely are not outclassed in these big games.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">-<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-weight: bold !important;">Alex Smith got tightly contained</strong>. 14 for 23, only 140 yards and a TD with a pick. Aside from that solid TD drive in the 3rd quarter, he did nothing of note in the air against the Seahawks defense.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">-<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-weight: bold !important;">The Seahawks were able to play their game and (mostly) avoid penalties</strong>: Okung's late game gaffe aside, the Seahawks committed two other penalties total. With both teams using the run game, defense and clock control to shorten the game, the Hawks showed they could play solid football and avoid stupid mistakes, aside from...</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;"><img alt="" class="wp-more-tag mce-wp-more" data-mce-placeholder="1" data-mce-resize="false" data-wp-more-text="" data-wp-more="more" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" style="background: url(&quot;images/more.png&quot;) 50% 50% repeat-y scroll transparent; border-radius: 0px; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; cursor: default; display: block; height: 16px; margin: 15px auto 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 652.797px;" title="Read more..." /></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">-<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-weight: bold !important;">... the drops!</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>The Seahawks dropped five passes, an astonishing series of drive-killing gaffes. And yet they were able to stay in the game.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">-<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-weight: bold !important;">The Seahawks were able to hang with SF despite still not opening up their offensive playbook</strong>. They ran 29 times to 25 pass plays The pass plays were not especially daring, your typical smashmouth playbook of 'short passes or deep lottery-shot bombs (mostly to the right side)'. Carroll did try a few 1st and 2nd down throws, but it was still mostly the same game of 'set the table with Beast Mode.'</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">- And<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-weight: bold !important;">Beast Mode delivered against an elite 49ers defense</strong>. Marshawn Lynch had 15 runs between the tackles for 81 yards, and 103 yards total on the ground. The top-shelf 49ers defense knew what was coming and Lynch still delivered.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">-<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-weight: bold !important;">If not for the drops, Russell Wilson would have had a decent game</strong>. RW posted an abysmal 9 for 23 for 122 and a pick. Never mind that if five of those incompletions had been caught he'd have had a decent stat line. A catch on any of those drops could have changed the context of their respective drives and made it a different story for the offense, with the 49ers' backs to the wall in their own territory. Maybe he throws more, maybe he throws less, but likely he has a TD or two and a better stat line than one from drops and desperate end game throws into the pass block packages of a top defense. Given his team's play selection continues to bottle him up, Russell didn't doo too bad given his receivers let him down huge.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">- Most of all,<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-weight: bold !important;">if not for the drops the Seahawks probably win this game</strong>. Again, a catch on any of those drops changes the context of that given drive, and touchdowns on one or more of those drives puts momentum in the Seahawks hands, plus their defense was shutting down Alex Smith and not allowing points despite Frank Gore's success. If less than half of those drops didn't happen, we could be talking about a tough Seahawks win in San Francisco against one of the league's top teams.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">- Oh, one more key item for the road. Speaking of the road...<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><strong style="font-weight: bold !important;">the Seahawks did this on the road</strong>. The Hawks have a notorious home field advantage and critics feel they shrivel up without the 12th Man on their side, the way dome teams often do. Clearly, that is a bunch of bull and the Hawks are legitimately good whether at home or in enemy territory.</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">******</div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #3d596d; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25.5px; margin: 0px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px;">So here's a bandwagon worth starting: Despite their loss last night, the Seahawks made a huge statement. They showed that, even when far from their best, they have what it takes to beat the best teams in the NFL. Be afraid, NFC. This is not a team you want to see on the other side of the field in a do-or-die January playoff game... whether they are playing at their best or not.</div>http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2012/10/that-was-nothing-to-be-ashamed-of-hawks.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-3514471977998524879Thu, 19 May 2011 16:08:00 +00002011-05-19T09:10:13.699-07:00minor league baseball5/18 Mariners Minor League RecapWell, I had written this for the Mariner Central website, as Lonnie had asked me to cover his beat for the week, but I didn't realize until finished that http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifhe had in fact written the recap for this night! Whoops! Not wanting the work to go to waste, I decided to go ahead and post it here. To see more of the same from Lonnie or myself, check out <a href="http://marinercentral.com">Mariner Central</a>.<br /><br />Don't expect regular posts on this subject. I just didn't want this to go to waste.<br /><br />******<br /><br />A: Clinton 4, Burlington 3<br />CLI: 11-29... BUR: 28-10<br /><br />Edlando Seco: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, wild pitch<br />Nathan Reed: 2.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K<br />Jandy Sena: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, balk<br />Tyler Burgoon: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K<br />Wind: 12 mph in from CF<br /><br />Kevin Rivers: 1-4, double, RBI, walk, K<br />Mickey Wiswall: 1-3, double, RBI<br />Jake Schlander: 1-4, 2 run HR, 2 K<br /><br />A bullpen relay led by Edlando Seco's first start of the season kept the Midwest League's best team in check, holding them to three runs while managing four runs against the league's best pitching and defense (3.03 runs/game).<br /><br />Burlington's Tyler Vail, who had four walks on the season coming into this game, walked four batters in his 4.1 innings including two in the first. Bees manager Aaron Nieckula suspected foul umpiring and got himself tossed in the 2nd after Jake Schlander's 2 run bomb made it 3-0 (Schlander BTW really needed that after opening his Clinton tenure with a 2 for 16 skid following demotion from High Desert).<br /><br />The Bees did claw their way back in against Seco and Nathan Reed to tie it at 3 in the 6th. But Clinton got a break on a leadoff error in the 7th to put Tim Morris aboard. After Morris stole a base and took 3rd on a bad pickoff throw, Mickey Wiswall sac flied him in to give Clinton the 4-3 lead, which Jandy Sena and closer Tyler Burgoon did not relinquish.<br /><br />Morris now leads the Lumber Kings with 7 stolen bags, while Wiswall's sac fly gives him a team-leading 16 RBI.<br /><br />A+: High Desert 10, Lancaster 8<br />Mavs: 18-22... Jethawks: 17-23<br /><br />Anthony Fernandez: 4.0 IP, 11 H, (6 R), 1 BB, 4 K<br />Jason Markovitz: 1.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 1 K<br />Willy Kesler: 3.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K<br />Wind: 30 mph L to R<br /><br />Nick Franklin: 1-6, double, 2 K<br />Matthew Cerrione: 2-5, R, 2 K<br />Vincent Catricala: 2-5, solo HR, 2 R<br />Dennis Raben: 2-3, solo HR, solo HR, sac fly, walk, K<br />Mario Martinez: 2-5, triple, R, RBI, K<br />Denny Almonte: 2-5, 2 run HR, 2 K<br />Gabriel Noriega: 2-5, triple, RBI, K<br /><br />The gusting wind likely turned damn near everything hit to RF a home run. The Mavs didn't help themselves with a 1st inning Vinnie Catricala error: The wind likely was a factor in screwing up the routine 1-3 putout that led instead to three Lancaster runs.<br /><br />The wind was probably a factor all around. The Jethawks had a passed ball in the 1st themselves, and James Jones scored in the 2nd on a wild pitch. Jones himself had a heck of a time in RF, as several flyballs dropped around him, including two that helped score a Lancaster run to make it 4-1.<br /><br />But the Mavs took advantage of the conditions in the 3rd, squeezing out four hits in five plate appearances, including Mario Martinez's swirling RBI triple to LF, followed by Denny Almonte riding the wind to a two run bomb to ultimately produce a 5-4 lead. But Lancaster themselves responded in the bottom 3rd as they and the wind further abused James Jones in RF with a two run triple to make it 6-5 Jethawks.<br /><br />Miraculously (given these conditions) in the 4th, both teams got runners on 2nd and 3rd, and neither scored.<br /><br />Dennis FREAKING Raben put a stop to that by leading off the 5th with a solo bomb to tie the ballgame at 5. The wind helped out on two throwing errors by Lancaster, James Jones stole another base, and Gabriel Noriega's triple all contributed to chasing Lancaster starter Bobby Doran as the Mavs took a 8-6 lead.<br /><br />But having chased beleaguered Mavs starter Anthony Fernandez, Lancaster themselves responded in the bottom 5th off Jason Markovitz with three singles, a walk and a sac fly to tie the ballgame at 8.<br /><br />But back to back jacks in the 6th by Catricala and Raben made it 10-8... and the scoring magically stopped. Even after loading the bases in that frame the Mavs did not get another run across. Willy Kesler stepped in during the 6th did not allow another airborne ball in play until the 9th inning, and even then Kesler went 1-2-3 as the Mavs held on.<br /><br />AA: Jackson 6, Huntsville 4<br />JG's: 23-15... HUN: 19-20<br /><br />Taylor Stanton: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K<br />Stephen Penney: 0.1 IP, 2 H, (3 R), 1 BB, 1 K<br />Edward Paredes: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K<br />Josh Fields: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K<br />Wind: 3 mph with varied direction<br /><br />Carols Triunfel: 2-4, RBI<br />Kuo Hui Lo: 2-3, double, 3 run HR, 2 R, walk, K<br />rest of Generals: 3-21, 6 walks, 4 K<br /><br />You know... I don't miss the moniker "West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx" at all. Yeah, the JG's redubbed themselves to celebrate a nostalgic anniversary, but I say they ought to keep the revised name. I even like the old school logo.<br /><br />Whatever Taylor Stanton's doing, he ought to keep doing it. The M's wisely ignored his artificially inflated 8.20 ERA from High Desert and have seen him handle his first two AA starts just fine. Taylor followed an abbreviated 4.2 inning start with 6 shutout innings as the Generals built a 3-0 lead.<br /><br />But leave it to the bullpen to hit the reset button in the 7th. Stephen Penney walked the leadoff batter and let Huntsville's Chuck Caufield go yard to make it 3-2. An unfortunate pair of groundballs (one of which led to Carlos Triunfel's 11th error of the season) put two men aboard before Penney got the hook for recently demoted Edward Paredes, and Lee Haydel blooped a pitch off Paredes into LF to tie the ballgame before a not so timely double play got the JGs out.<br /><br />Paredes did strike out the side in the 8th, however, and Kuo Hui Lo became the hero with a two out three run bomb in the bottom half to give the Generals the lead for good. Huntsville eked out a two out run in the 9th off Josh Fields but could not get any more.<br /><br />AAA: ORG SWEEP! The Rainiers had Wednesday off!http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2011/05/518-mariners-minor-league-recap.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-6897468981681226453Tue, 15 Mar 2011 18:43:00 +00002011-03-15T11:43:30.412-07:00NCAA BasketballNCAA Tournamentsagarin ratingsstatistics and probabilityOdds and thoughts on the 2011 NCAA TournamentLast year I composed a series of convoluted posts detailing each team's odds of winning their respective conference tournaments, then composed a full set of probabilities for each NCAA Tournament team to make the Final Four. Despite a little rust on the prob/stat end due to my theatre exploits, I jogged my memory and quickly whipped out a full set of probabilities, adjusting for the new wonky 68 team format.<br /><br />The new at-large play-in format doesn't adversely affect those teams' already dim chances of making the Sweet 16 or Final Four. We're talking about 11 and 12 seeds here, after all. These teams are already facing long odds of getting to the Final Four. At worst, playing in cuts those chances by 70%, and if so that team's probably not good enough to project getting far anyway. More than likely, a worthy Cinderella candidate only sees their chances drop by 1/3... for example a 12% shot to make the Final Four becomes a 9% shot... not a huge difference.<br /><br />In the distant past I've gone over the formula for determining each team's odds of winning individual games based on Sagarin ratings, and determining their odds of reaching certain points in the tournament based on Markov formulas. I won't bore you now with the details but rest assured this isn't just a bunch of numbers and ideas I pulled out of my ass.<br /><br />So now, here are the four regions and odds for each team in the region:<br /><br />EAST<br /><br />The only region with two play in games has a lot of wonky stuff going on aside from the bonus action, but this is pretty much Ohio State's region for the taking.<br /><br /><b>Dark horse:</b> Washington (7). I'd say Kentucky at #4 but they'll run into consensus #1 team Ohio State in the Sweet 16, easily the team to beat this year, and Orange would be a 2 to 1 dog in that matchup: I don't foresee an upset. UW, however, is a deserving but dangerous 7 seed that, for all their ups and downs (and legal trouble) this year, can play with just about anyone in the country. If they faced overseeded #2 UNC in round two I'd actually have the Huskies as the slight favorite, and think #3 Syracuse would give them a tougher but winnable challenge in the Sweet 16. Don't be too shocked if Ohio State ends up facing UW in the regional final. I won't say the Huskies would win... but they could certainly give the Buckeyes a scare at the least, and scoring the upset isn't impossible.<br /><br /><b>Overseeded:</b> North Carolina (2) and Xavier (6). Reputation's pretty much carrying UNC in a down year: They're more like a 4 this year. Three teams below them (Syracuse, Kentucky, Washington) would be favorites to beat them on a neutral floor. Roy Williams' team would be fortunate to make the 2nd weekend, dad gummit. Xavier is more of a double digit seed, such a bad misseeding by the committee that they may have table-set a 1st round upset (more in a bit).<br /><br /><b>Underseeded:</b> Clemson (12) and Marquette (11). Clemson did not have the best year but they should not be playing in when they're better than at least 4-5 other at-large teams, if not more. Marquette also got unduly punished, and probably deserved a single digit seed. 1st round opponent Xavier is similarly mismatched, and don't be surprised if Marquette sends Xavier packing.<br /><br /><b>No chance in hell</b>: Neither 16 seed poses any sort of credible threat. Texas-San Antonio's odds at the Final Four are suitably long at 430,000 to 1, but the odds for Alabama State, easily the weakest team in this 68 team field, are so laughably long they make Powerball look like a better bet: 69,000,000 to 1. That is not an exaggeration. Their odds of getting to the round of 32 alone are 612 to 1 and their odds of making the 2nd weekend are roughly 23,800 to 1.<br /><br /><b>You have a better chance of...</b> dying in a tsunami (condolences, Japan). In fact, you're more than ten times more likely to die randomly in a tsunami (615,488 to 1). Those odds obviously go up if you live on coastline in a fault zone, but still.<br /><br />At least their odds are better than the odds of winning Powerball: 195,000,000 to 1.<br /><br /><b>Odds:</b><br /><br />1. Ohio State. Sweet 16: 79.3%. Final Four: 1.4 to 1 (41.5%)<br />2. North Carolina. Sweet 16: 46.2%. Final Four: 9.5 to 1<br />3. Syracuse. Sweet 16: 59.4%. Final Four: 7.2 to 1<br />4. Kentucky. Sweet 16: 59.4%. Final Four: 6.0 to 1<br />5. West Virginia. Sweet 16: 26.4%. Final Four: 27.3 to 1<br />6. Xavier. Sweet 16: 14.6%. Final Four: 96.9 to 1<br />7. Washington. Sweet 16: 45.1%. Final Four: 8.3 to 1<br />8. George Mason. Sweet 16: 7.8%. Final Four: 96.7 to 1<br />9. Villanova. Sweet 16: 12.8%. Final Four: 42.4 to 1<br />10. Georgia. Sweet 16: 6.9%. Final Four: 271 to 1<br />11. Marquette. Sweet 16: 23.7%. Final Four: 38.9 to 1<br />12. UAB. Sweet 16: 2.8%. Final Four: 861 to 1<br />12. Clemson. Sweet 16: 8.8%. Final Four: 131 to 1<br />13. Princeton. Sweet 16: 2.6%. Final Four: 2488 to 1<br />14. Indiana State. Sweet 16: 2.3%. Final Four: 4125 to 1<br />15. Long Island. Sweet 16: 1.8%. Final Four: 4331 to 1<br />16. Texas San Antonio. Sweet 16: 0.1%. Final Four: 430,000 to 1<br />16. Alabama State. Sweet 16: LOL. Final Four: 69,000,000 to 1<br /><br />WEST<br /><br />A more conventional 16 team region also has a conventional favorite, as Duke like OSU is facing considerable odds (41%) of making the Final Four. Few teams here can pose a serious challenge for them.<br /><br /><b>Dark Horse</b>: San Diego State (2) and Texas (4). Silly to cite two high seeds as dark horses, but these are pretty much the best teams in the field not named Duke and the only real challengers to the Blue Devils. Texas is only a 60-40 dog to Duke and if they pulled the upset they'd be the favorite against every possible opponent. SDSU would be a 2 to 1 dog vs Duke in the Elite Eight and a 56-44 dog to Texas if the Longhorns pulled the upset but would be the favorite against anyone else. The odds for either aren't terrific, around 9 to 2 or 5 to 1, but they have the most realistic chance of everyone else to pull it off.<br /><br /><b>Overseeded</b>: Tennessee (9) and Memphis (12). The Volunteers probably deserved a double digit seed, while Memphis' reputational license has long since expired. They won their conference tourney to get in, but they pack little more punch than your run of the mill mid-major these days, and probably belongs in the 13-14 range. Don't count on a 5-12 upset when Memphis meets legit 5 seed Arizona, while Tennessee has a reasonable shot at a round one win but stands little chance against Duke in the 32-round.<br /><br /><b>Underseeded</b>: Texas (4) and Missouri (11). Texas has the strength of a 2, and if they meet Duke in the Sweet 16 as expected they will likely pose the toughest challenge of the bracket to the Blue Devils. Missouri probably warrants a middle seed more than a bubble seed, and likely no one will notice because Cincinnati at 6 is pretty good and is a slight 54-46 favorite to dispatch the Tigers, who deserved better.<br /><br /><b>No chance in hell:</b> 16 seed Hampton is already a 50 to 1 dog to beat Duke in round one. Their odds of going all the way to the Final Four? A paltry 100,000 to 1.<br /><br /><b>You have a better chance of...</b> sinking a hole in one from 150 yards (80,000 to 1). Maybe Hampton should bag the tourney and join the golf team for a relaxing weekend that doesn't involve getting crushed by 30 points against a Duke team running at half speed.<br /><br /><b>Odds:</b><br /><br />1. Duke. Sweet 16: 82.8%. Final Four: 1.4 to 1 (41.2%)<br />2. San Diego State. Sweet 16: 65.3%. Final Four: 4.8 to 1<br />3. Connecticut. Sweet 16: 45.4%. Final Four: 12.4 to 1<br />4. Texas. Sweet 16: 59.9%. Final Four: 4.6 to 1<br />5. Arizona. Sweet 16: 30.2%. Final Four: 21.9 to 1<br />6. Cincinnati. Sweet 16: 28.2%. Final Four: 24 to 1<br />7. Temple. Sweet 16: 18.6%. Final Four: 54.1 to 1<br />8. Michigan. Sweet 16: 9.7%. Final Four: 90.9 to 1<br />9. Tennessee. Sweet 16: 7.2%. Final Four: 153 to 1<br />10. Penn State. Sweet 16: 13.8%. Final Four: 93.7 to 1<br />11. Missouri. Sweet 16: 22.9%. Final Four: 35.5 to 1<br />12. Memphis. Sweet 16: 3.5%. Final Four: 1133 to 1<br />13. Oakland. Sweet 16: 6.4%. Final Four: 315 to 1<br />14. Bucknell. Sweet 16: 3.4%. Final Four: 1568 to 1<br />15. Northern Colorado. Sweet 16: 2.4%. Final Four: 2974 to 1<br />16. Hampton. Sweet 16: 0.3%. Final Four: 100,000 to 1<br /><br /><b>SOUTHWEST</b><br /><br />The odds of someone other than the top seed get a little better here, but not by much,a s top seed Kansas has a 34.6% chance of making the Final Four. However, the challenge is more broad and general, with no specific dark horses posing a threat aside from....<br /><br /><b>Dark horse</b>: Purdue (3). Purdue might be a touch underseeded but it makes little difference at 3. They are a do-able 62-38 dog against Kansas if they meet in the regional final, and are solid (though typically not dominant) favorites against anyone else in the field, even 2 seed Notre Dame. Their chances of making the Elite Eight are a solid 39.5%, and there's a 47% chance Kansas falls before that point, which would make the Boilermakers a favorite to make the Final Four.<br /><br /><b>Overseeded</b>: Both 11 seeds in the region's play-in game: USC and VCU. Actually, "shouldn't be in the tournament at all" is a better label. Given the snubs (Colorado, St Mary's, New Mexico), and how low both of these teams rate overall, the fact that either of these teams are playing championship basketball at all is insulting. Neither objectively is close to being a bubble team, and yet here they are. USC is a 69-31 favorite in the game, and a 74-26 dog against a far superior #6 Georgetown team. 12 seed Richmond could wipe the floor with both these play-in jokes.<br /><br /><b>Underseeded</b>: UNLV (8) and Illinois (9). Both these 1st round opponents should be a couple seeds higher. If not playing each other for the right to get force-fed to Kansas, both would have a very good shot at the 2nd weekend.<br /><br /><b>No chance in hell</b>: Newcomer St Peter's (14) faces some fairly long odds at 11,000 to 1 thanks to drawing tough Purdue in round one, making them a 13 to 1 dog for the upset. They probably should have been a 15 but debating the low seeds is a quibble. Our 16 in this bracket, Boston U, is facing 53,600 to 1 odds, and 33 to 1 odds of getting past top seeded Kansas. Even given that, the Terriers have the best chances of any 16 seed in the field.<br /><br /><b>Odds:</b><br /><br />1. Kansas. Sweet 16: 72.3%. Final Four: 1.9 to 1 (34.6%)<br />2. Notre Dame. Sweet 16: 61.8%. Final Four: 6.8 to 1<br />3. Purdue. Sweet 16: 62.1%. Final Four: 4.1 to 1<br />4. Louisville. Sweet 16: 56.9%. Final Four: 8.2 to 1<br />5. Vanderbilt. Sweet 16: 26.0%. Final Four: 33.8 to 1<br />6. Georgetown. Sweet 16: 23.0%. Final Four: 25.4 to 1<br />7. Texas A&M. Sweet 16: 18.1%. Final Four: 65.3 to 1<br />8. UNLV. Sweet 16: 12.9%. Final Four: 37.1 to 1<br />9. Illinois. Sweet 16: 14.6%. Final Four: 30.1 to 1<br />10. Florida State. Sweet 16: 18.2%. Final Four: 65.0 to 1<br />11. USC. Sweet 16: 7.5%. Final Four: 141 to 1<br />11. VCU. Sweet 16: 1.1%. Final Four: 2911 to 1<br />12. Richmond. Sweet 16: 14.3%. Final Four: 105 to 1<br />13. Morehead State. Sweet 16: 2.8%. Final Four: 2818 to 1<br />14. St Peter's. Sweet 16: 0.9%. Final Four: 11,000 to 1<br />15. Akron. Sweet 16: 1.9%. Final Four: 5832 to 1<br />16. Boston U. Sweet 16: 0.3%. Final Four: 53,600 to 1<br /><br /><b>SOUTHEAST</b><br /><br />The weakest (1) seed in Pittsburgh has a somewhat serious challenger and perhaps a couple of dim challengers to their Final Four throne. This region is rather seed, chock full of mid majors, only some of which pose a serious threat one on one, and many are underseeded, forcing them to climb uphill for the right to try and knock off the Panthers. But that said, Pittsburgh's weak-favorite status means there's a 68% chance someone else will represent the Southeast region in the Final Four, with over half the teams having roulette-like odds at doing so.<br /><br /><b>Dark Horse</b>: BYU (3). Even without dismissed Brandon Davies, the Mormon Cougars have a solid top ten ballclub, and are no worse than a slight underdog to anyone. A couple of breaks and they could sneak past Pitt into the Final Four. Only a lack of dominant strength makes them a somewhat distant shot at 20.7%. Wisconsin (4) is close in strength but is slated to run into Pittsburgh in the Sweet 16 if they get that far.<br /><br /><b>Overseeded</b>: Florida (2) and UCLA (7). The weakest two seed in the field should be a 5 or even lower. A very weak sub-bracket (UCLA at 7 and a downish Michigan State at 10, and of course the Gators draw the easily beatable 15 seed UCSB in round one) gives them an even money chance to get to the 2nd weekend, but BYU would be a 2 to 1 favorite if they met in the Sweet 16, and even #6 St John's could give them a serious game.<br /><br />I had UCLA on the bubble, but they got a 7 seed. Ridiculous. They're a 56-44 underdog to Michigan State in the 1st round.<br /><br /><b>Underseeded</b>: Utah State (12) and Belmont (13). Look, I know mid majors play weak schedules and you have to bear that in mind when they, say, win 30 games comfortably and only lose to top 50 opponents. But weak scheds never stopped the NCAA in previous years from giving Tark's UNLV teams or old powerhouse Memphis teams high seeds. Hell, Princeton teams in the 90's got single digit seeds a few times, and they rarely played anybody during the regular season.<br /><br />Oh, but they never go far in the tourney anyway, right? The reason you never see these Utah States and Belmonts go far in the tourney is because you keep giving them 12 and 13 seeds and they're forced to play a tough 4 or 5 seed in the first round instead of some middling power conference team that they could beat. Are the powers that be afraid of getting their conferences exposed as overrated in an NCAA Div-I with better parity? Are they afraid of Utah State pulling a Gonzaga and showing they could go deep and that maybe these perennially successful small schools can play with the big boys and deserve respect?<br /><br />Anyway, watch out for the 5-12 upset special here, as (5) Kansas State is a slight 47-53 underdog to Utah State. Belmont is not so lucky at 13: (4) Wisconsin is the real deal and a 64-36 favorite.<br /><br />Speaking of Gonzaga, they're not what they used to be, but they're a slight 52-48 favorite at (11) to topple (6) St John's. Expect many upsets in this region. But not from....<br /><br /><b>No chance in hell</b>: Arkansas Little Rock is a gift... for Pittsburgh, that is, if they can overcome 2 to 1 favorite UNC Asheville in the play in game. UALR is a 173,000 to 1 shot to thread the needle and make the Final Four.<br /><br /><b>You have a better chance of</b>: Being killed on the job if you're a teacher or nurse (143,000 to 1). Education majors at UALR can both take comfort and weep at these facts.<br /><br /><b>Odds:</b><br /><br />1. Pittsburgh. Sweet 16: 75.6%. Final Four: 2.1 to 1<br />2. Florida. Sweet 16: 52.4%. Final Four: 9 to 1<br />3. BYU. Sweet 16: 58.7%. Final Four: 3.8 to 1<br />4. Wisconsin. Sweet 16: 41.3%. Final Four: 6.9 to 1<br />5. Kansas State. Sweet 16: 18.2%. Final Four: 33.2 to 1<br />6. St John's. Sweet 16: 18.1%. Final Four: 31.2 to 1<br />7. UCLA. Sweet 16: 18.3%. Final Four: 58.9 to 1<br />8. Butler. Sweet 16: 13.5%. Final Four: 61.7 to 1<br />9. Old Dominion. Sweet 16: 9.9%. Final Four: 108 to 1<br />10. Michigan State. Sweet 16: 25.8%. Final Four: 30.6 to 1<br />11. Gonzaga. Sweet 16: 20.1%. Final Four: 25.9 to 1<br />12. Utah State. Sweet 16: 22.2%. Final Four: 23.5 to 1<br />13. Belmont. Sweet 16: 18.2%. Final Four: 29.9 to 1<br />14. Wofford. Sweet 16: 3.1%. Final Four: 840 to 1<br />15. UC Santa Barbara. Sweet 16: 3.5%. Final Four: 1649 to 1<br />16. UNC Asheville. Sweet 16: 0.9%. Final Four: 7729 to 1<br />16. Ark Little Rock. Sweet 16: 0.1%. Final Four: 173,000 to 1http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2011/03/odds-and-thoughts-on-2011-ncaa.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-1154281676886500527Tue, 15 Mar 2011 06:26:00 +00002011-03-15T09:38:38.971-07:00NCAA BasketballNCAA TournamentMore teams, more delusions: A terrible effort by the NCAA Tournament Selection CommitteeThe NCAA Tournament Selection Committee's made some questionable choices every year, but even granted the novelty of the expanded 68 team field, this has to be one of the worst efforts I've seen from them in over a decade... as if most of them didn't know anything about college basketball.<br /><br />By Sagarin rating (to this day one of the best barometers for team strength), if you filter out all the automatic qualifiers then the at-large selections should go down to the 50th rated team. Among those in the top 50, here is who got snubbed:<br /><br />Virginia Tech (40)<br />St. Mary's (43)<br />New Mexico (48)<br />Colorado (49)<br />Maryland (50)<br /><br />Here are the teams rated below that cutoff line that did get in at-large:<br /><br />Tennessee (51)<br />Georgia (52)<br />UAB (53)<br />USC (62)<br />VCU (77)<br /><br />The top three on that last list might be explainable: Bubble decisions can come down to various, sometimes arbitrary factors. But letting USC and VCU in at-large was inexcusable. Those two teams might not even qualify for the top half of an NIT field.<br /><br />This is some of the worst seeding I've seen in years.<br /><br />- I'm not a Texas fan but they're worthy of a 2 or a 3, not the 4 seed they actually got, not-as-strong schedule or not.<br /><br />- And if you're going to dock Texas for a lack of top-25 wins and holding serve on a padded schedule, then why give North Carolina a 2 seed despite a 4-seed caliber season and the same type of resume?<br /><br />- Georgetown getting a 6 despite going 21-10 against arguably the toughest schedule in the nation (18 of their 31 games against top 50 teams, no less) is ridiculous. Give them at least a 5, if not a 4.<br /><br />- Speaking of ridiculous, Florida at 2 despite a relatively easy schedule, only two top 25 wins and four losses versus teams outside the top 50. They're a 5.<br /><br />- Call me a Vegas homer, but UNLV got ripped off with an 8 seed despite finishing 3rd in a tough Mountain West conference with two top 10 teams (BYU, San Diego State) and a shoulda-been-in New Mexico team while going 24-8 with one of the nation's tougher non-conference schedules. Give them a 6 if you don't like them but they could've warranted a 5... not an 8. An 8 is what you give a 19-13 power conference team or a decent power team that built a 23-26 win season on an easy schedule. It's about time the Mountain West's better teams started getting more than mid-major respect.<br /><br />- Along those lines, when is the committee going to stop treating Utah State like a small school and giving them 12 seeds when they're clearly a top 25 team? They didn't even do that to the 80's-90's UNLV teams, who played in the weaksauce Big West... and the NCAA HATED Jerry Tarkanian! Utah State this year was a 6 for sure, even with their weak schedule.<br /><br />- I'm more of a body-of-work guy than a reward-the-hot-finish guy, so I'm not a fan of Villanova at 9 even though they did kind of collapse to close the season. Thing is... even if you're hot or cold at season's end, the NCAA Tourney is a whole new environment, whole new opponents, whole different situation, and when you put 18-22 year old kids in a new situation like that, it can change the perspective of even the most resilient kid and change their game in an instant. Once the nominal season ends and we hit the do-or-die nationally-staged portion of the season, the hot and cold streaks don't really matter anymore because whatever environment you entrenched your groove or rut in is wiped out. Villanova had a decent season overall and keep in mind their cold run came during conference play in the nation's toughest conference (Big East). They still had eight top-50 wins and went 21-11 against one of the 20 toughest schedules in the country. Hit the reset button on their year and I bet things change. And I bet they're not only going to beat George Mason, but they could give #1 seed Ohio State problems this weekend. Yeah, the collapse still happened, but I would've given them a 6 or 7.<br /><br />- Kansas State is overseeded at 5. Objectively they're maybe a 6, likely a 7. You could even make a case they're more of an 8, but I've give their tough schedule and 21-10 record the benefit of the doubt. And go figure their 12-seed opponent in the 64 round is none other than Utah State. Possible upset.<br /><br />- Missouri and Marquette at 11 is kind of ridiculous. Both are top 30 teams... yes, even 20-14 Marquette. Missouri didn't fare well vs what top 25 talent they faced but they had four wins vs numbers 26-50 and pretty much held serve otherwise over a meaty schedule in a 22-10 season. Marquette faced 18 top-50 teams in their 34 game season, and beat five top 25 teams. Nearly all of their 14 losses came against the top 50, and bear in mind in this field the committee would have ideally let in everyone in the top 50. Sure, I can see punishing Marquette's 14 losses, and sure I can see punishing Missouri's lack of big wins. But I find that petty here: Both had tough schedules and there's no reason either one wouldn't warrant an 8 or a 9 in this field.<br /><br />- One 13 loss team that should've gotten the 10-12 seed treatment is Michigan, who did not beat a single top 25 team and though they beat six teams rated 26-50, they took a dive versus four teams outside the top 50. I'd still give them a 10, but certainly not the 8 seed they got.<br /><br />- Vanderbilt got their annual overseeding gift from the tournament committee. This year's prize: A 5 seed in an 8-seed worthy 23-10 season with a dodgy non-con schedule, only two top 25 wins, and four losses against teams outside the top 50. Seriously, I wonder if gifts from the Vanderbilt AD to the Tournament Selection Committee are part of Vanderbilt University's annual budget.<br /><br />- Belmont at 13 is stupid. Look at their track record: 30 mostly convincing wins (yes, they play in the lowly Atlantic Sun, but several of those teams had good years), hanging tough in two losses to tourney team Tennessee and in another loss to tourney-bound Vanderbilt, their only real blip being a road loss to Lipscomb in late January. With a lack of convincing majors in the field this year, give them a 9 or a 10 and see if they can give one of those meh majors a scare. Or at least reward the strong year with an 11 or 12. Don't give them a 13 like they're some garbage auto-qualified small school with 8-10 losses as if they got blown out by every top 25 team they faced, or like they lost several games against crappy no-name schools.<br /><br />- Xavier and their zero top-25 wins is so overseeded at 6 that the committee clearly table-set an upset loss to underseeded 11 seed Marquette. Conversely, Richmond kind of got the shaft at 12, though with a padded sched I kind of see it. Both should have been a 9 or 10 IMO. If you're going to shaft Richmond with a 12 you should have done the same for Xavier given they've had mostly identical seasons. Why unduly reward one while punishing the other? Because we recognize Xavier on a TV set more than we recognize Richmond? That's not how you're supposed to seed teams.<br /><br />- Old Dominion at 9 isn't terrible but they're easily the weakest 9 in the field and if they weren't facing a similarly weak 8 in Butler, ODU would get crushed. Both are riding reputations from previous seasons: I'd have Butler at 12 this year (they went 22-9 off a pretty weak schedule), and while I might make ODU a 10, I could see seeding them as low as 12: They won 27 games off a somewhat weak schedule and didn't look as convincing as Belmont did with their weak sched.<br /><br />- I don't like making Clemson play-in: I have eight tournament teams behind them, four of which incidentally got wrongfully snubbed. They're at least an 11. They didn't look too impressive against tougher teams but they still won 21 games against a decent schedule.<br /><br />- If you're going to punish 13-14 loss teams at all, then why give Penn State a 10 despite 14 losses? Because they had a hot run in the Big Ten Tourney? Again, not a fan of rewarding hot streaks, because then you get 3-4 days off and have to play a new, tough opponent on a new, neutral, nationally televised court in a do or die game... which changes everything. Yes, I like their very tough schedule, but if you reward that for a team while ignoring 13-14 losses, then don't go punishing Marquette.<br /><br />- UCLA at 7 makes little sense. Yes, three top 25 wins in a 22-10 season, but they had a pretty weak schedule for a Pac 10 team (only eight top-50 opponents in all), didn't look particularly convincing in many of their wins, and lost five winnable games to teams outside the top 50. I'd have them at 12 and would have had them play-in.<br /><br />******<br /><br />Bear in mind... I'm only hitting the clear, distinct mistakes. Poring through the teams and ratings, there was so much else to cover that, if I could see a couple of plausible reasons to overlook a seeding mistake, maybe a particularly strong/weak schedule or a lot more losses/wins than usual or something, I let it go if it was just 1-2 seeds over or under. This post could have been twice as long if I hit everything.<br /><br />Well done, Selection Committee. Way to use three extra at-large bids as an excuse to turn completely stupid.http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2011/03/more-teams-more-delusions-terrible.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-1174411299921282543Sat, 10 Jul 2010 20:06:00 +00002010-07-10T13:10:47.755-07:00LeBron Jamesmedia controversyMiami HeatMichael RosenbergCan't take the Heat? Get out of the kitchen<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_e-4Tg-jJjSQ/TDjS9cIzlcI/AAAAAAAAAJo/gHkGJI4zX5Q/s1600/JamesHeat.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 246px; height: 320px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_e-4Tg-jJjSQ/TDjS9cIzlcI/AAAAAAAAAJo/gHkGJI4zX5Q/s320/JamesHeat.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5492371698545300930" /></a><br />Go figure that LeBron James takes a bunch of Heat, then <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5365165">takes the Miami Heat's offer</a>... but not before aligning with the mainstream media to turn his free agency process into a top-story news saga that did more to embarrass the sports media than it did to elevate/desecrate LeBron's image or report on any actual news.<br /><br />Here's the thing with reporting on trades and free agency in pro sports: There is only one type of news that actually matters, and that's when a deal is actually made. All the rumors, all the hearsay, all the insider info... they come and go and rarely is any of it ultimately right or even valid: Often it brews from a throwaway comment in conversation blown very far out of proportion, speculation passed along as fact. No reporting in sports media is more consistently worthless that the reporting of trade or free agency rumors.<br /><br />Couple that with LeBron's insistence on formally prolonging his decision and then aligning with ESPN to conduct a one hour special where he announced his decision (a decision he by all accounts made two weeks ago), and all you've got is equal parts three ring circus and pied piper, pulling the gullible masses along, of which includes the mainstream media itself, thirst for something to report on in the doldrums of baseball season with the World Cup winding down, the NBA and Stanley Cup Finals having long since concluded and NFL football season still more than a month away.<br /><br />Thus I give very, very little credence to criticisms of LeBron James' character. He made no secret that he was unhappy with the Cleveland Cavaliers and that he would test the market. Given the obvious widespread interest in the superstar's services, LeBron was virtually assured of signing elsewhere. For LeBron to leave a perpetually underachieving Cleveland Cavs team is not an act of treason, but simply a desire to play for a better team. He owes the Cleveland Cavaliers nothing except his services over the life of his contract with the team, which expired after this season. Any moral arguments to the contrary are, like those trade and free agency rumors, all hot air in a media world that's already full of it.<br /><br /><a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/michael_rosenberg/07/08/lebron.event/">Nobody told Michael Rosenberg</a>.<br /><br /><blockquote><i>Michael Jordan announced on national television he's leaving Chicago to join the Detroit Pistons. Jordan said it was tough to bolt Chicago, where he was the most popular athlete in many years, because he thinks he has a better chance to win a championship if he plays with Pistons star Isiah Thomas. Jordan said by playing together, he and Thomas "won't have the pressure of going out and scoring 30 every night."</i><br /><br />That would have sounded absurd, right? Well, it is no more absurd than what LeBron James is doing. Jordan was 27 years old in 1990, slightly older than James is now. He had never been to the NBA Finals. He had been beaten up by the Celtics and Pistons for years. He doubted his supporting cast was good enough.</blockquote><br /><br />First of all, Michael Jordan was part of a carefully assembled, vastly improved team with strong role players (a young Scottie Pippen and BJ Armstrong, Horace Grant, John Paxson), and an innovative and effective coach in Phil Jackson. His team was loaded with young and improving talent, plus effective veterans (Grant, Bill Cartwright, Paxson, etc) with a lot of mileage left.<br /><br />LeBron was on a hastily thrown together team of okay-ish players (Mo Williams, Delonte West) declining veterans (Shaq, Anthony Parker, Zydrunas Ilgauskas) and maybe one other young talent that might be an effective counterpart over the long haul (JJ Hickson). Their coach, the recently fired Mike Brown, was a terrible strategist and had barely the first idea of how to manage his personnel. With no head coach as of yet, no assurance the Cavs would hire a good coach, and no young supporting cast, not to mention a constantly transitioning roster with no identity let alone no style.<br /><br />Save for improving to a winning record the last few seasons, the Cavs were nothing, NOTHING, like the Bulls team that Jordan elected to stay with. The situation MJ had in Chicago was vastly superior to the situation he would have found somewhere else. In Chicago, Jordan could be the leader of a young, stable, improving unit under a great strategic coach who also ran the team with a calm, balanced and yet suitably authoritative demeanor. No other team could have provided all of that, and a group he was familiar with to boot.<br /><br />As for LeBron, he walked away from a rag-tag group that definitely would have to be rebuilt over the next season or three, and could well spend the rest of LeBron's youthful years rebuilding. They didn't even have a coach, nor much of an idea who they wanted to coach.<br /><br />Contrast that with a fractured but reloaded Miami Heat team that just re-signed Dwyane Wade and just acquired star post man Chris Bosh. They have an incumbent and effective coach in Erik Spoelstra working under legendary Pat Riley. Yes, Miami has to reload that roster, but they also now have three very strong players in James, Wade and Bosh to build that team around. Compare this to the fractured and perpetually directionless situation in Cleveland, and it's no wonder James would choose Miami over that.<br /><br />Oh wait, Rosenberg's not done yet.<br /><br /><blockquote>the self-proclaimed King said everything you need to know about him.<br /><br /><i>1. "You have to do what's best for you, and what's going to make you happy."</i><br /><br />This is what's going to make him happy? Sharing a stage with two other stars? Really?</blockquote><br /><br />Well... yes!<br /><br />First of all, Michael Rosenberg, who are you to decide what should and shouldn't make a star player happy? If LeBron James decides tag teaming with two star players instead of being the star leader on another team is what makes him happy, then who are you to tell him that's wrong? It's none of your business to decide what LeBron James does and doesn't want.<br /><br /><blockquote>I guess that's all LeBron is: A complementary player with superstar talent. We should have figured this out before: He got that giant CHOSEN 1 tattoo on his back and calls himself King James because he is desperate for reassurance.</blockquote><br /><br />Actually, the MEDIA and his cohorts dubbed him King James. He ran it because well why the hell not.<br /><br />And Rosenberg plays sports psychologist again, telling us with certainty that James got those tattoos because he was desperate for constant reassurance. Maybe LeBron just thought they were cool nicknames synonymous with his reputation. People get tattoos for a variety of reasons, some of which make more rational sense than others.<br /><br />So far, we've got an article heading forward with a full head of steam on the basis of three very hastily assembled and poorly thought out presuppositions concocted purely in the author's imaginative mind. I have a bad feeling about the rest of this piece.<br /><br /><blockquote><i>2. "We don't have the pressure of going out and scoring 30 every night or shooting a high percentage."</i><br /><br />Whoa. Hold on there. Scoring 30 a night is too much pressure for one of the five most talented players ever?</blockquote><br /><br />Well, when defenses are tighter than ever and every team you play is focused intently on stopping you... yes, Michael, yes it is. I don't care if you're Jesus Christ and have blessed yourself with a 68 inch vertical leap, and the refs are giving you every call ever.<br /><br />LeBron would rather be on a team where other stars provide a sthreat and, if he ahs a down night, others will be able to pick up the slack... than be a 30 point guy on a team where if he doesn't throw down 30 his team's probably losing because everyone else sucks. LeBron isn't perfect and can't play 82 spectacular games a year, plus 15-25 spectacular games in the playoffs, if his body can hold up to that kind of pressure. Strange, I know. There are very few players that could play consistently great all the way down the stretch in those conditions, and the list consists of Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson and... uh....<br /><br /><blockquote>Find me another all-time NBA great who would utter those words. Jordan would rather do an adidas commercial than say that. Bryant must have laughed as he heard the so-called "King" say that. Larry Bird? The next time he complains about pressure will be the first. Magic was the greatest team player of the last 40 years, but he was also so competitive that he wanted to play Jordan one-on-one in a promotional event -- and this was when Magic had won titles and Jordan had not, so Magic had more to lose.</blockquote><br /><br />Now would be a good time to note that Jordan had Scottie Pippen and, later, Dennis Rodman. Bryant had Shaq during his first title run and Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Ron Artest during his 2nd. Bird had Kevin McHale and Robert Parrish. And Magic had James Worthy and some dude named Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on his team, who BTW I hear is only the NBA's all time leading scorer. Yeah, none of those had or needed any help whatsoever. None.<br /><br /><blockquote>3. "I know how loyal I am."<br /><br />The man just dumped his hometown(s) on national television.</blockquote><br /><br />LeBron, like the rest of us, is loyal to an employer as long as he is technically employed by them. And like the rest of us, he is as loyal to his hometown as long as living there serves him well. He owes Cleveland nothing. Do we serious think Michael Rosenberg would stay loyal to SI if they treated him badly and another media outlet offered him three times the money to write for them?<br /><br />This is pretty sad to read, because Rosenberg generally is <a href="http://www.google.com/#hl=en&safe=off&q=michael+rosenberg+sports+illustrated&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=&fp=c401d881a5ff002f">a fairly decent sports writer</a>. But this just reeks of Rosenberg being pressured by his employer and peers to craft up false moral indignance over a decision that honestly makes sense for all parties.<br /><br /><blockquote>LeBron James just jumped into an elevator and wants us to think he can fly. Sorry, but we know better. We know that he did something Michael, Magic, Bird and Bill Russell never would have done. We know he ditched Cleveland for an All-Star team.</blockquote><br /><br />Right, because if Michael Jordan were the leading scorer for a rag-tag Cleveland Cavs team instead of the young, improving Bulls team he was a part of upon free agency, he totally would have stayed. If Bill Russell were the only good player on the Clippers, he totally would have stayed. Magic would have eschewed good money to be the man on a team of nobodies with the Minnesota Timberwolves.<br /><br />Oh wait, all of those players were great players on great teams with great teammates and great coaches, and LeBron walked away from a fractured team with the revolving-door roster and no coach.<br /><br />I've already given this terrible piece more attention than it probably warrants, so I'll just say that while LeBron's media whoring was amusingly annoying, it made sense and his ultimate decision made sense.<br /><br />Media hot air, however, will never make sense. Aside from drawing attention to said outlets, it rarely if ever provides any real sociocultural value.http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2010/07/cant-take-heat-get-out-of-kitchen.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-8493124030226942608Sun, 27 Jun 2010 18:29:00 +00002010-06-27T11:42:52.329-07:00baseball analysisRussell BranyanSeattle MarinersWhy would teams try to win in a lost season?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_e-4Tg-jJjSQ/TCebZ1xMlCI/AAAAAAAAAJg/Njcw4dsqF3E/s1600/Branyan.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 214px; height: 320px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_e-4Tg-jJjSQ/TCebZ1xMlCI/AAAAAAAAAJg/Njcw4dsqF3E/s320/Branyan.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5487525539206698018" /></a><a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100627&content_id=11639170&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb">Check this out</a>.<br /><br />The Mariners are over 10 games out of 1st place in the AL West, and well below .500. Why would they trade two fringey prospects (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=carrer001eze">Ezequiel Carrera</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Juan+Diaz&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Juan Diaz</a></strong>) to get back <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/branyru01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Russell Branyan</a></strong> in a lost season? There are two simple reasons, one being much bigger to the Mariners than the other.<br /><br />Even if the team and many fans (such as many reading here, myself included) have given up on the season, many local/regional fans still might have an interest in attending Mariner games, so long as the team can make a significant effort to win, i.e. not make the cost and time invested to see a game a complete waste of their time. A team that scores 3 runs a game and is clearly/obviously punting the season isn’t going to draw most casual fans.<br /><br />But believe it or not, the ticket sales side of the equation is the small part. Ticket sales, while valuable, make up a minority of the team's revenue. The biggest reason why Jack would want to buff up 2010’s team in a lost season is that the team's in-season performance from here on out does matter to the team’s relationship with FSNW and ESPN Radio, given the networks are paying the Mariners a lucrative sum for their media contracts.<br /><br />A better team that competes despite the record equals more game-to-game interest which means more ratings. More interest in the team in 2010 means more viewers in 2010 which means higher average ratings during 2010 as well as over the life of the current contract, which means more ad dollars down the line.<br /><br />If ratings for Mariners broadcasts tank, a) FSNW loses money in the long run as advertisers can cite lowered average ratings as justifiable leverage to lower the price on ad spots with the network and b) the Mariners may lose out on money from a new radio or TV contract down the line, as the network side will cite low ratings from this period as justification for low-balling the M’s when it comes time to negotiate a renewal. Sure, the Mariners have <a href="http://www.seattlepi.com/baseball/308521_mari22.html">a 10 year, $300 million deal with FSN through 2020</a>, but let's say the team wanted to buy out and jump to a more lucrative deal, or let's say FSN wanted to nix the deal. Don't forget <a href="http://www.seattlepi.com/baseball/371735_mariradio23.html">the radio deal with KIRO</a> ($5.5 million per year) only lasts through 2011. There is still plenty of leverage, as well as money, that can be gained and lost by what team they elect to field for the rest of 2010.<br /><br />Even if the team's playoff chances in a vacuum make upgrading the 2010 roster seem like a waste of time, doing so could have an impact that reaches way beyond the field, and way beyond 2010.http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2010/06/why-would-teams-try-to-win-in-lost.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-1033863201774374558Tue, 22 Jun 2010 18:34:00 +00002010-07-05T11:35:56.206-07:00net runsNet Runs shelved indefinitelyFor various personal reasons, I have decided to shelve Net Runs until further notice. My eventual goal with the system is to program a method where I can calculate it quickly and automatically. I gather Net Runs will return once that is possible. But for now....http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2010/06/net-runs-shelved-indefinitely.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-2735699898801633340Sun, 20 Jun 2010 18:33:00 +00002010-06-20T11:34:46.123-07:00Cincinnati RedsFelix HernandezMichael Saundersnet runsScott RolenSeattle MarinersSeattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-19-2010 (Seattle 5, Cincinnati 1)<style type="text/css"><br />table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;}<br />.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}<br /></style><table class="tableizer-table"><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th align=center>Team</th><th align=center>Player</th><th align=center>Net Runs</th><th align=center>Hit</th><th align=center>Pitch</th><th align=center>Def</th><th align=center>Base</th><th align=center>EXERA</th><th align=center>PitOuts</th></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lecursa01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Sam LeCure</a></strong> </td><td>-1.140</td><td>0.000</td><td>-1.392</td><td>0.252</td><td>0.000</td><td>6.15</td><td>18</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Ramon+Hernandez&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Ramon Hernandez</a></strong> </td><td>-0.683</td><td>-0.576</td><td>0.000</td><td>-0.107</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Joey Votto</a></strong> </td><td>2.144</td><td>0.697</td><td>0.000</td><td>1.340</td><td>0.107</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phillbr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Brandon Phillips</a></strong> </td><td>-0.947</td><td>-0.883</td><td>0.000</td><td>-0.064</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Scott Rolen</a></strong> </td><td>-1.768</td><td>-1.183</td><td>0.000</td><td>-0.368</td><td>-0.217</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Orlando+Cabrera&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Orlando Cabrera</a></strong> </td><td>-0.297</td><td>-0.909</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.612</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nixla01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Laynce Nix</a></strong> </td><td>-0.160</td><td>-0.574</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.414</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stubbdr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Drew Stubbs</a></strong> </td><td>0.823</td><td>0.069</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.647</td><td>0.107</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bruceja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Jay Bruce</a></strong> </td><td>0.370</td><td>-0.484</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.854</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gomesjo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Jonny Gomes</a></strong> </td><td>0.162</td><td>0.162</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithjo06.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Jordan Smith</a></strong> </td><td>0.265</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.265</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>3.11</td><td>6</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td>CIN Luckbox</td><td>0.139</td><td>0.139</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td>Dusty Baker</td><td>-0.358</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>-0.358</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr></table><br /><br /><style type="text/css"><br />table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;}<br />.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}<br /></style><table class="tableizer-table"><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th align=center>Team</th><th align=center>Player</th><th align=center>Net Runs</th><th align=center>Hit</th><th align=center>Pitch</th><th align=center>Def</th><th align=center>Base</th><th align=center>EXERA</th><th align=center>PitOuts</th></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Felix Hernandez</a></strong> </td><td>1.340</td><td>0.000</td><td>1.335</td><td>0.005</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.98</td><td>27</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsro07.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Rob Johnson</a></strong> </td><td>-1.149</td><td>-1.010</td><td>0.000</td><td>-0.139</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kotchca01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Casey Kotchman</a></strong> </td><td>-0.367</td><td>-0.443</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.076</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/figgich01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Chone Figgins</a></strong> </td><td>1.177</td><td>0.777</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.293</td><td>0.107</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Jose+Lopez&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Jose Lopez</a></strong> </td><td>-0.468</td><td>-0.460</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.209</td><td>-0.217</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Josh+Wilson&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Josh Wilson</a></strong> </td><td>-0.737</td><td>-0.243</td><td>0.000</td><td>-0.494</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saundmi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Michael Saunders</a></strong> </td><td>2.480</td><td>2.210</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.270</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gutiefr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Franklin Gutierrez</a></strong> </td><td>1.968</td><td>0.197</td><td>0.000</td><td>1.586</td><td>0.185</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suzukic01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Ichiro Suzuki</a></strong> </td><td>1.187</td><td>0.783</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.404</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bradlmi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Milton Bradley</a></strong> </td><td>-1.284</td><td>-1.284</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td>SEA Luckbox</td><td>0.358</td><td>0.358</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td>Don Wakamatsu</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>Safeco Field</td><td>3.055</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>-3.055</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>RE/Inning: 0.505</td></tr></table><br /><br />Player of the Game: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saundmi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Michael Saunders</a></strong> (2.480 NRuns: 2.210 hitting, 0.270 fielding)<br />Mariners over 1.000 NRuns: 5 (Hernandez, Figgins, Saunders, Gutierrez, Ichiro)<br /><br />Goat: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Scott Rolen</a></strong> (-1.768 NRuns: -1.183 hitting, -0.368 fielding, -0.217 running)<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Felix Hernandez</a></strong>'s pitching: 1.335 NRuns... 2.98 EXERA<br />Mariners defense: 2.210 NRuns<br><br>http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2010/06/seattle-mariners-net-runs-for-6-19-2010.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-1670458994670614659Sat, 19 Jun 2010 06:25:00 +00002010-06-19T15:59:16.701-07:00Cincinnati RedsCliff LeeJosh Wilsonnet runsSeattle MarinersSeattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-18-2010 (Seattle 1, Cincinnati 0)<style type="text/css"><br />table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;}<br />.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}<br /></style><table class="tableizer-table"><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th align=center>Team</th><th align=center>Player</th><th align=center>Net Runs</th><th align=center>Hit</th><th align=center>Pitch</th><th align=center>Def</th><th align=center>Base</th><th align=center>EXERA</th><th align=center>PitOuts</th></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuetojo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Johnny Cueto</a></strong> </td><td>1.240</td><td>0.000</td><td>1.095</td><td>0.145</td><td>0.000</td><td>2.60</td><td>17</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/milleco01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Corky Miller</a></strong> </td><td>-0.345</td><td>-0.576</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.231</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Joey Votto</a></strong> </td><td>0.048</td><td>0.043</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.005</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phillbr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Brandon Phillips</a></strong> </td><td>-0.284</td><td>-0.505</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.221</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Scott Rolen</a></strong> </td><td>0.190</td><td>-0.355</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.545</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Orlando+Cabrera&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Orlando Cabrera</a></strong> </td><td>-1.285</td><td>-0.386</td><td>0.000</td><td>-0.899</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gomesjo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Jonny Gomes</a></strong> </td><td>-1.728</td><td>-1.310</td><td>0.000</td><td>-0.418</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heisech01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Chris Heisey</a></strong> </td><td>0.136</td><td>-0.505</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.641</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bruceja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Jay Bruce</a></strong> </td><td>-0.484</td><td>-0.484</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cairomi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Miguel Cairo</a></strong> </td><td>-0.574</td><td>-0.574</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/herreda01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Danny Herrera</a></strong> </td><td>0.867</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.867</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>-1.21</td><td>4</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stubbdr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Drew Stubbs</a></strong> </td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rhodear01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Arthur Rhodes</a></strong> </td><td>0.607</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.607</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>-0.85</td><td>3</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td>CIN Luckbox</td><td>0.107</td><td>0.107</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CIN</td><td>Dusty Baker</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr></table><br /><br /><style type="text/css"><br />table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;}<br />.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}<br /></style><table class="tableizer-table"><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th align=center>Team</th><th align=center>Player</th><th align=center>Net Runs</th><th align=center>Hit</th><th align=center>Pitch</th><th align=center>Def</th><th align=center>Base</th><th align=center>EXERA</th><th align=center>PitOuts</th></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leecl02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Cliff Lee</a></strong> </td><td>-0.196</td><td>0.000</td><td>-0.196</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>4.39</td><td>27</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsro07.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Rob Johnson</a></strong> </td><td>-0.255</td><td>-0.148</td><td>0.000</td><td>-0.107</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carpmi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Mike Carp</a></strong> </td><td>-0.842</td><td>-0.842</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/figgich01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Chone Figgins</a></strong> </td><td>-0.814</td><td>-0.814</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Jose+Lopez&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Jose Lopez</a></strong> </td><td>1.188</td><td>0.683</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.505</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Josh+Wilson&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Josh Wilson</a></strong> </td><td>1.389</td><td>1.556</td><td>0.000</td><td>-0.274</td><td>0.107</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saundmi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Michael Saunders</a></strong> </td><td>-0.077</td><td>-1.120</td><td>0.000</td><td>1.043</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gutiefr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Franklin Gutierrez</a></strong> </td><td>1.034</td><td>-0.668</td><td>0.000</td><td>1.702</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suzukic01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Ichiro Suzuki</a></strong> </td><td>0.978</td><td>-0.672</td><td>0.000</td><td>1.650</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bradlmi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Milton Bradley</a></strong> </td><td>-0.534</td><td>-0.534</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kotchca01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Casey Kotchman</a></strong> </td><td>0.222</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.222</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sweenmi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Mike Sweeney</a></strong> </td><td>-0.588</td><td>-0.588</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td>SEA Luckbox</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SEA</td><td>Don Wakamatsu</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>Safeco Field</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.00</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>RE/Inning: 0.505</td></tr></table><br /><br />Player of the Game: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Josh+Wilson&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Josh Wilson</a></strong> (1.389 NRuns: 1.556 hitting, -0.274 fielding)<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leecl02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Cliff Lee</a></strong>: -0.196 NRuns, 4.39 EXERA<br />Mariners outfield defense: 4.395 NRuns<br /><br />Reds pitching: 2.569 NRuns<br />Reds defense: 0.471 NRuns<br />Reds lineup: -4.652 NRuns<br /><br />Goat: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gomesjo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Jonny Gomes</a></strong> (-1.728 NRuns: -1.310 hitting, -0.418 fielding)<br><br>http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2010/06/seattle-mariners-net-runs-for-6-18-2010.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1792446722382930703.post-4670828686178629287Fri, 18 Jun 2010 19:51:00 +00002010-06-18T23:34:19.136-07:00baseball analysisEMERAminor league baseballSeattle MarinersSeattle Mariners minor league EMERA for June 2010<em>Sorry for the delay in Net Runs posts: The preceding games will get caught up later tonight, along with posts for a couple of other special items.</em><br /><br />Following up on the Seattle Mariners minor league system's pitching, here is the Mariners <a href="http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2010/05/seattle-mariners-minor-league-emera-for.html">minor league EMERA</a> for all eligible pitchers* based on season pitching totals current as of yesterday. Pitchers are broken down by tiers: Ignoring all other developmental concerns, you could hypothetically slot the 1st tier in AAA, the 2nd tier in AA, the 3rd tier in High A and the 4th tier in Low A. On a more relevant scale, you want AAA pitchers in the 1st tier, not the 2nd tier or below... and you expect single A pitchers in the 3rd or 4th tier, so they're doing well if slotted higher.<br /><br />And of course, EMERA is designed to estimate a pitcher's potential MLB ERA, so if his EMERA looks like a decent MLB ERA, that pitcher theoretically could pitch in the bigs right now.<br /><br />(<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/feierry01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Ryan Feierabend</a></strong> is currently pitching in AAA and has enough innings to qualify, but I included his High A totals in parentheses as a point of comparative reference, as he has enough innings at that level to qualify as well.)<br /><br />* - Minimum of 10 IP<br /><br /><style type="text/css"><br />table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;}<br />.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}<br /></style><table class="tableizer-table"><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Player - 1st Tier</th><th>Lvl</th><th>EMERA</th></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sweenbr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Brian Sweeney</a></strong></td><td>AAA</td><td>3.74</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=rohrba001rob">Robert Rohrbaugh</a></strong></td><td>AA</td><td>4.43</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Garrett+Olson&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Garrett Olson</a></strong></td><td>AAA</td><td>4.80</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=parede001edw">Edward Paredes</a></strong></td><td>AA</td><td>4.96</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=vasque002ant">Anthony Vasquez</a></strong></td><td>A+</td><td>5.14</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=varvar001ant">Anthony Varvaro</a></strong></td><td>AA</td><td>5.23</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=pineda001mic">Michael Pineda</a></strong></td><td>AA</td><td>5.42</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=penney001ste">Stephen Penney</a></strong></td><td>A+</td><td>5.45</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=robles001mau">Mauricio Robles</a></strong></td><td>AA</td><td>5.50</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=vasque002ant">Anthony Vasquez</a></strong></td><td>A</td><td>5.51</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=bray--001ste">Steve Bray</a></strong></td><td>AA</td><td>5.59</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/feierry01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Ryan Feierabend</a></strong></td><td>AAA</td><td>5.61</td></tr></table><br /><br /><style type="text/css"><br />table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;}<br />.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}<br /></style><table class="tableizer-table"><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Player - 2nd Tier</th><th>Lvl</th><th>EMERA</th></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=palazz001ste">Steve Palazzolo</a></strong></td><td>AAA</td><td>5.66</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=hensle001ste">Steven Hensley</a></strong></td><td>AA</td><td>5.78</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=jensen001aar">Aaron Jensen</a></strong></td><td>AA</td><td>5.94</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=cleto-001mai">Maikel Cleto</a></strong></td><td>A+</td><td>5.95</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Josh+Fields&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Josh Fields</a></strong></td><td>AA</td><td>5.98</td></tr> <tr><td>(<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/feierry01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Ryan Feierabend</a></strong>)</td><td>A+</td><td>6.06</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cordech01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Chad Cordero</a></strong></td><td>AAA</td><td>6.10</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=kirkla001chr">Chris Kirkland</a></strong></td><td>A</td><td>6.39</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=moran-001bri">Brian Moran</a></strong></td><td>A</td><td>6.71</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=cortes001dan">Dan Cortes</a></strong></td><td>AA</td><td>6.71</td></tr> <tr><td>Luis Muñoz</td><td>AA</td><td>6.75</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=carraw001and">Andrew Carraway</a></strong></td><td>A+</td><td>6.85</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=stanto001tay">Taylor Stanton</a></strong></td><td>A</td><td>6.90</td></tr></table><br /><br /><style type="text/css"><br />table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;}<br />.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}<br /></style><table class="tableizer-table"><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Player - 3rd Tier</th><th>Lvl</th><th>EMERA</th></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=rivera001mum">Mumba Rivera</a></strong></td><td>AA</td><td>6.91</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pauleda01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">David Pauley</a></strong></td><td>AAA</td><td>6.99</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=richar001ste">Steven Richard</a></strong></td><td>A+</td><td>7.16</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/seddoch01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Chris Seddon</a></strong></td><td>AAA</td><td>7.19</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/speigle01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Levale Speigner</a></strong></td><td>AAA</td><td>7.21</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frenclu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Luke French</a></strong></td><td>AAA</td><td>7.24</td></tr> <tr><td>Andy Baldwin</td><td>AAA</td><td>7.31</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=wild--001jac">Jake Wild</a></strong></td><td>A+</td><td>7.34</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/shellst01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Steven Shell</a></strong></td><td>AAA</td><td>7.38</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Erasmo+Ramirez&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Erasmo Ramirez</a></strong></td><td>A</td><td>7.57</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=hann--001che">Cheyne Hann</a></strong></td><td>A+</td><td>7.67</td></tr> <tr><td>Jon Hesketh</td><td>A</td><td>7.73</td></tr></table><br /><br /><style type="text/css"><br />table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;}<br />.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}<br /></style><table class="tableizer-table"><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Player - 4th Tier</th><th>Lvl</th><th>EMERA</th></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/koplomi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Mike Koplove</a></strong></td><td>AAA</td><td>7.76</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Jose+Jimenez&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Jose Jimenez</a></strong></td><td>A</td><td>8.08</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=lafrom001bob">Bobby LaFromboise</a></strong></td><td>A+</td><td>8.28</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=nation001bla">Blake Nation</a></strong></td><td>A+</td><td>8.31</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=housey001joh">John Housey</a></strong></td><td>A</td><td>8.41</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/petityu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Yusmeiro Petit</a></strong></td><td>AAA</td><td>8.55</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=kaspar001ken">Kenn Kasparek</a></strong></td><td>A+</td><td>8.65</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=czyz--001nic">Nick Czyz</a></strong></td><td>A+</td><td>9.66</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=jossel001bra">Brandon Josselyn</a></strong></td><td>A</td><td>9.85</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=vega--001mar">Marwin Vega</a></strong></td><td>A+</td><td>9.96</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=gillhe001jam">James Gillheeney</a></strong></td><td>A</td><td>10.49</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=cooper001dan">Daniel Cooper</a></strong></td><td>A</td><td>11.74</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=lewis-001tay">Taylor Lewis</a></strong></td><td>A</td><td>12.25</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=blandf001tyl">Tyler Blandford</a></strong></td><td>A</td><td>14.51</td></tr> <tr><td><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=moorer001rya">Ryan Moorer</a></strong></td><td>A+</td><td>14.92</td></tr></table>http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2010/06/seattle-mariners-minor-league-emera-for.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Steven Gomez)0