- Clyde Russell is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are
his own.-

By Clyde Russell

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Sept 24 (Reuters) - The recent debate
over iron ore has tended to be whether the three mining giants
who dominate seaborne supply will win their massive bet that
they can drive high-cost producers out of the market.

But a more relevant question is whether they will have the
time to achieve their aims.

The Anglo-Australian pair of Rio Tinto and BHP
Billiton, as well as Brazil's Vale have
flooded the market with their low-cost iron ore, with supply
from Western Australia ramping up dramatically in the past year.

This has led to a collapse in the Asian spot price
.IO62-CNI=SI to a five-year low of $79.40 a tonne on Tuesday,
down 41 percent from the end of last year and 58 percent from
the record $191.90 a tonne reached in February 2011.

The main question for the big three is not whether they can
drive higher-cost competitors to the wall, but how long their
own investors will tolerate the lower earnings as a result of
the weak iron ore price.

While the chief executives of the big three haven't exactly
said so in public, they are clearly hoping for a relatively
short war and a quick victory, after which iron ore prices will
once again rise and stabilise at a higher level.
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