Time Series Forecast Indicator for Binary Options Trading
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At first I found this indicator hard to read and giving off vague signals. After a bit of research I determined that the settings were off. My charting package had the indicator set to a period of 5 with bars+ of 7. This created a wildly swinging line that the most savants of technical analysts would have a hard time deciphering. After changing my period to 9 bars (I left bars+ at the standard 7) the line was much smoother and much easier to read. Imagine Mr. Magoo without his glasses and then with them, that is how much difference this simple setting made. After that I was surprised at just how many good signals were jumping off the charts at me.

My Last Words on The Time Series Indicator

The Time Series Forecast is a good tool. It has a lot of use for binary options traders providing buy/sell signals as well as indications of market reversals. This tool is going in my toolbox. I will learn more about it and apply it to my trading. Looking at this chart of the EUR/JPY that the TSF has given 9 excellent trend following signals for this trade since the market bottom of August/September 2013. There are at least that many short term bear signals in that time also. When I narrow it down to a 15 day chart of hourly closings the number of excellent signals grows geometrically. The TSF is the best binary options trading tool I have seen.

Why this indicator sucks:-
phrases like "moving average of linear regression utilizing the Least Squares Method to provide a “best fit” line over a set time period". . It reminds of of an article written for beginners when they first enter school and read binary option terms which are totally new to them.
hehehe

Btw an advance version of MAs, to find trend, is definitely worth testing. I have included it in my "to test" list.

Btw an advance version of MAs, to find trend, is definitely worth testing. I have included it in my "to test" list.

MJ, I would appreciate any feedback on your tests. Looks interesting, but although i know about linear regression, I never heard about Least Squares Method...
Anyway, I put it on a chart and it looks promising, but similar to a lot of other MA variations (Hull and Adaptive MA).
Thanks Michael for the article and thanks MJ for any results on the tests

Good thread and good indicator described! It would be nice if there is some more information on how this trading indicator is calculated. I couldn’t understand what does it mean Moving Linear Regression, probably some fitting procedure applied to the price, but not sure how?

Linear regression is a method of trend determination that results in a straight line intersecting with the current days closing price (Usually). The TSF is a plot of each days linear regression end point, plus some other calculations, that results in a fast moving average type line we can use to generate signals.

Linear regression is a method of trend determination that results in a straight line intersecting with the current days closing price (Usually). The TSF is a plot of each days linear regression end point, plus some other calculations, that results in a fast moving average type line we can use to generate signals.

the TSF uses multiple linear regressions and also projects them into the future by a set number of bars. I have a screen shot showing one linear regression, a TSF and a 30 bar EMA.

the TSF uses multiple linear regressions and also projects them into the future by a set number of bars. I have a screen shot showing one linear regression, a TSF and a 30 bar EMA.

Hi Michael. Just wanting to know the download link you put in this article downloads a indicator that is only ONE RED LINE and no second line like you have in the picture. All i am able to change is the red line ( being the only line) and it only has 20 and the changeable character. Are you sure that you linked the same tool or do you have to add in another part to it like a EMA to make it complete?

I have been using the Time Series forecast indicator. It works well on trending markets and its not a lagging indicator. An at times it can spot reversals. You guys can try but be cautious with range markets. I have attach EUR/USD with the Time Series Forecast indicator.

Hi Michael. Just wanting to know the download link you put in this article downloads a indicator that is only ONE RED LINE and no second line like you have in the picture. All i am able to change is the red line ( being the only line) and it only has 20 and the changeable character. Are you sure that you linked the same tool or do you have to add in another part to it like a EMA to make it complete?

All the best.

The TSF is only the red line, the other line is a 30 bar ema. The two can be used together but from what I have seen this may not be neccesary. I have them both on the chart as a reference. TSF crosses only involve the TSF line and the price action.