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Have to say that the big news from last week is the win by Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth getting tired with his schedule and Phil Mickelson good play.

First Rickie Fowler won again, it’s his fourth win in his last 18 starts. With it we are getting some that are writing on how it’s time to call Fowler one of the “big-four” in golf, joing the ranks of Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Jason Day. Of course Fowler’s accomplishments are big, but frankly I think he will need a win in a major to join the list of those others. What is amazing about Fowler is that four wins in six months is pretty good until you realize that in the last 14 months Spieth has won eight times, McIlroy has won four times (along with six weeks off for leg injury) and Day has won five times so in a span of 14 months the four has won 21 times.

As for Jordan, AP had a story saying that Spieth is beat up, mentally and physically tired after his travels of late. We have heard this story before, a player wins a major and before he knows it is finding himself globetrotting, playing in some events he really wouldn’t be playing in. For Speith starting at the British Open he has stamped his passport in countries like England, Korea for the Presidents Cup, China for the WGC-HSBC, Australia for the Australian Open, Bahamas for the Hero World Challenge, Abu Dhabi and now Singapore. This doesn’t include a recent trip to Maui, but he spent a week on vacation before playing in the Hyundai and then winning it. Oh after playing in Singapore it’s off to California for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am and then the next week in Los Angeles for the Northern Trust. So yes he is playing a lot and spending a good amount of time on airplanes, but it’s not like he is sitting in a middle seat back in coach. Spieth now makes his trips on private planes, he goes when he wants and has plenty of room to sleep or do whatever. Yes even at 22 this is hard with all of the time changes and demands, but he can cut back, Tiger Woods was never a big globetrotter, Rory McIlroy is now very careful on his travel. Still at 22 he is going to do better than a guy at 32 or 42. It’s important for him to chose his spots, perfect example is the criticism he is getting for not playing at Torrey Pines this week. Maybe the course doesn’t suit his game in three tries he has missed two cuts and had one 19th place finish. One of the things that made Tiger Woods so great was he only played in tournaments that he had a good record in. I see Spieth cutting back in the future, yes he still had to go to Korea for the Presidents Cup, but maybe going to Australia or Singapore will take a back seat for staying at home. We know that Speith enjoyed Australia, going a week early and playing golf there. So maybe that is ok, who knows maybe the trip to Abu Dhabi wasn’t his cup of tea, but he really doesn’t have to go. He’s a smart kid and we know he will get it right in the years to come.

Last we see that Phil Mickelson may have put it together again. He hasn’t won since the British Open in 2013 and after the Presidents Cup made a tough decision, dropping swing guru Butch Harmon after a decade of great play. But it’s been lean for a while and he decided to make some swing changes with Andrew Getson, who is Arizona based and not very well know. But after Mickelson finished T-3rd at the CareerBuilder Challenge that may change. But Mickelson will have to play well this week on a course that he use to play well but hasn’t since they made changes to it. In his last four starts he has missed two cuts, withdrew once and finished T-51st. Mickelson puts a lot of blame on the work that Rees Jones did in getting the course ready for the 2008 U.S. Open, but still to prove he is playing better and the new swing is solid, he will be looking for a good finish this week. At PGA West he finished T-3rd thanks to only making three bogeys. But his driving was still wild, he was T-42nd in driving accuracy, but was able to get away with wayward drives at PGA West. But with so much rain in San Diego the last month, the rough is up at Torrey Pines and we will see if things are a bit better for him. One thing, if Phil could start playing well and be a force with some of the young players like Day and Spieth, it will create a lot of buzz.

Course information:

Played at the two courses at Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California

South Course (Home Course) – Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,698

North Course – Par: 72 / Yardage 7,052

In 2015 the South course was the 6th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 73.518 average. The North Course was the 46th hardest course, playing to an average of 70.232

Both courses were designed by Billy Bell Jr. and opened in 1957. In the 80s both courses were revamped with all new greens with the work done by the city.

The south course opened first on June 19th, 1957 with Paul Runyan, Ralph Duldahl, Olin Dutra and a local pro, Don Gollett the first to play it. Five months later the North Course opened. Hard to believe that since the courses opened over 58 years ago, over 14 million rounds have been played on both courses.

The two courses were the brainchild of Leo Calland, then director of San Diego’s park and recreation department. He pushed hard to change an old World War II camp into a golf course. When he got permission, Bell came in and covered over the blacktop and could use the excess concrete to achieve rolling fairways on what was a flat site. The lure of both courses after they opened was the views of the ocean on every hole. Both courses sit atop of bluffs overlooking the Pacific and these views were seen a couple years later nationally when Challenge Golf filmed one of there matches with Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, Sam Snead and Doug Sanders.

A decade later, the San Diego Open was looking around for a home. Since the tournament was first played in 1952 it never really found a home. It was played on several different courses but in 1968 it would embark on a big change. It decided to copy several west coast tournaments by getting a headline celebrity to host the event getting Andy Williams who at the time was one of the biggest stars on television with a weekly show. They also needed financial support and asked for the city for the use of Torrey Pines free of charge. It was a match made in heaven. The course proved very popular not only with the pros but the TV audience that watched it.

Since then Torrey Pines has been the home of the tournament, although every year rumblings was heard that it could be replaced with a TPC course. Those rumblings ended with the economic downturn in 2008.

After the 2001 Buick, the South course went through an extensive revamping process. With the chance of getting the 2008 U.S. Open, $3.3 million was spent with Rees Jones adding a lot of length to the course. Now, the course can stretch to 7,700 yards although the PGA Tour plays it below that figure. Though Jones didn’t change the routing of the course he did redo all the bunkers and changed four holes moving greens on the third, fourth, fourteen, and fifteen holes. With all the changes, it brought some bite back to a course which 30 years ago was considered very difficult by the touring professionals. Average scores were up almost two shots compared to past years and the winning score of 275 was along with two other years the highest winning score in 20 years. The revamp proved such a big success with the players, media and fans that the USGA gave the 2008 U.S. Open to Torrey Pines and that was such a big success that in 2021 the USGA will return the Open to Torrey.

The North Course is three shots easier than the South but in some people’s minds the North is more scenic. There’s a reason the par-3 sixth is still the most photographed hole at Torrey, and the red sandstone cliffs on the northern edge provide as much beauty as anything else. For years rumor had it that the North Course would undergo a renovation and that is now going to happen. The day after the end to the Farmers, Tom Weiskopf and his bulldozer will redo the greens and make other changes to the course. Now the changes aren’t going to make the course tougher, but make the course even more playable.

Here is a new feature we have, a look at key stats that are important to Torrey Pine South Course:

This is based on the most important stats for Torrey Pines South Course, based on data from last years Farmers Insurance Open, and using data from all the players in the field for with stats from 2015 and 2016. What we do is take there rank for each stat and average that number between players rank in ’15 & ’16.
Event is played on two courses, so the data is only for the rounds played on the South Course, not the one round data from the North Course
The scoring average of the field on Torrey South Course in 2015 was 73.52, so with par being 72 that means the average score was just over shot and a half over per round, making the South Course the 6th hardest course to score on in 2015. It’s also important to see how the weather played a factor, fog played a major factor in late starts on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures were good but on Sunday it was windy at 8 to 15 mph, probably the reason the final round scoring average was 74.054.

In looking at the stats for Torry South last year, driving is important. With fast fairways, the course ranked 15th in driving distance and 8th in driving accuracy. More important than that, rough proximity is important because the greens were the 5th hardest to hit so those out of the rough had a tough time getting it close to the hole, last year the average shot from off the fairway was 53 feet and 2 inches Last year’s winner Jason Day took a lot of pressure off of him by taking advantage of playing the easier North Course, shooting a 65 in the second round. This set him up for the weekend, in which he was 3 under. Day was the longest driver in the field and was T-49th in hitting fairways. Day was T-8th in greens hit but won the tournament around the greens. In the 21 greens he missed, he got it up and down 15 times. But the key to him playing well on the South Course was on the greens, in 55 putts from ten feet and under, he only missed five putts, two from six feet and one from seven feet and two from ten feet. Poa annua greens are hard to judge and are bumpy in the afternoons, so Day won because of putting inside ten feet. One other important element for Day, he was 4 under on the par 4s, doesn’t sound great but he was the best in the field so playing the par 4s is important.

*Greens in Regulation: Important because hitting greens on the South Course is hard, last year it was the 5th hardest on the PGA Tour. Winner Jason Day was T-8th in greens hit, of those in the top-18, only four players hit more greens than Day.

*Rough Proximity: Since the fairways are had to hit, last year it was 8th hardest, it’s important to do well in getting it close from the rough when you find out that the South Course was the hardest to hit it close from the fairways.

*Putting inside 10 feet: In 2015 South Course was 10th hardest in putts made inside ten feet. For the week, players made 86.45% of them or to be exact 4,978 out of 5,758. So making putts will be important.

*Par 4 scoring: The South Course is hard, one of the reasons that it is the site of the U.S. Open in 2021. Last year the South Course was T-3rd in par 4 score, of the 74 that played 72 holes they averaged 4 over par on the par 4s, so look for players that do well on these holes.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Farmers Insurance Open

Key stat for the winner:

* The South course can be stretched to over 7,600 yards but don’t look for that length although some tees will be back. Driving will play an important role this week, specially with all the rain that has hit the San Diego area in the last month. Look for those that do well in total driving stat, the one that combines both distance and accuracy together. In the past couple of years, the course has prided itself with heavy U.S. Open rough which makes it tough to hit your shot into the green if you miss the fairway. In 2014 and ’15 the course proved hard from the rough as it was the hardest course on proximity to the hole as players in the rough averaged getting it 51 feet to the hole. See the same happening this year so it’s best to keep it in the fairway.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

* The course was revamped and toughened a decade ago and now has a “U.S. Open feel” to it. In past years this course had the reputation as the course that major winners are victorious on as between 1992 and 2008 all the champions also had major victories except for one, Peter Jacobsen in 1995. Nick Watney broke things up in 2009, Ben Crane in 2010, and Bubba Watson wasn’t a major winner when he won in 2011. Brandt Snedeker kept the streak alive in 2012 but it was broken in 2013 when Tiger returned to the winners circle. Last year Jason Day won but it would be seven months later before he won his first major at the PGA Championship, but still the course has a fair share of major winners.

* One record still in tack, don’t look at a newcomer winning, the last rookie champion was in 1991 with Jay Don Blake. Along with 1989 champion Greg Twiggs, Blake and Twiggs are the only Farmers champions to win just once on the PGA Tour. Even more remarkable the only player to win the Farmers in his first start was Ted Kroll; the winner of the first Farmers in 1952 so don’t look for any rookie winners.

* One great stat that got ruined in 2012. Scott Stallings played twice before winning, missing the cut both times. But before he became a winner just look at the winners since 2000. All of them did well in previous Farmers starts. We know about Tiger’s record, but look at the other non-Tiger winners going back to 2000:

2015 winner Jason Day – finished T-2nd in 2014 and T-9th in 2013

2012 winner Brandt Snedeker – finished T2nd in 2010 & 3rd in 2007

2011 winner Bubba Watson – finished T4th in 2007

2010 winner Ben Crane – finished T7th in 2009

2009 winner Nick Watney – finished T9th in 2007

2004 winner John Daly – finished 4th in 2003

2002 winner Jose Maria Olazabal – finished T13th in 2001, first time he played in event

2001 winner Phil Mickelson – finished Won in 2000

2000 winner Phil Mickelson – finished 2nd in 1996, 3rd in 1994, and won in 1993

The point is, it may be smart to look at guys like Shane Lowry, Rickie Fowler, Bill Haas and Jimmy Walker as good prospects for this week.

* Greens that will be classified as “bumpy” may play a role in determining the champion. Now people who have played it in the last couple of days say they are perfect, but anything could happen. Although the South greens were redone in 2001, Poa Annua have crept back into almost 95% of the greens. With that if it tends to get foggy in the morning, the greens will be inconsistent and drive players a bit crazy. Again, patience will be the key here.

* Look at the list of champions shows that scramblers have done very well in this event. Look for the player who can get it up and down to win. In 2015 it ranked 10th and in 2014 it ranked 8th toughest on tour and has been in the top-ten six of the last seven years.

* One round is played on Torrey North, a course that is 695 yards shorter than the South. Last year it played three and a half shots easier than the home South course. To win, player needs to play great in his round on the North. Since 1983, no champion has ever been over par on the North course and except for four years, they have shot in the 60s with 20 of the 32 shooting 67 or under. Last year Jason Day shot 65 on the North Course, so he was seven under on that course and 2 under on the South Course. So look for the champion to go low on the North Course

* Before Jason Day, Scott Stallings, Ben Crane, Bubba Watson, and Brandt Snedeker won this was a great bit of Farmer’s trivia. Before Crane’s 2009 victory 15 of the previous winners had “California ties” going a step further, 25 of 62 winners have either been born, raised, gone to school or live in California, You may wonder why this stat is important? Poa Annua is a grass found mostly in California that gives those that play and know the grass a special advantage, so that’s why it’s important.

Who to watch for at the Farmers Insurance Open

Best Bets:

Jason Day

More info:

Think he is ready to start playing at the level he was in August. Secret for him is going low on the North Course, if he does that will be hard to beat.

(Wednesday update) When these picks were done on Monday, Day was healty. In the two days since Day has come down with fly-like symptoms which is keeping him from playing in the Wednesday pro-am. He tees off at 9:20am on Thursday, so there probably not enough time for him to get proper treatment, yes he will rest on Wednesday. But if he is your main horse you may want to reconsider that choice. I am taking him out of my Draft Kings six, just think with the lack of play and this, he may not be sharp when he plays the North Course on Thursday, a course you have to shot 67 or under to have a chance at winning.

More info:

Comments

The Zac Blair pick surprised me some. I see he had the t11 last year but his profile doesn’t have the length that you would think necessary for this course. Obviously checks the box for accuracy and finding greens though so maybe that’s it.

I like him because he does well in scrambling (17th this year), but mostly because he played well finishing 3rd at the Sony, another tough driving course. Oh, he did miss the cut in Palm Springs last week, still like what he did in Hawaii.

James, I agree that we should worry about Day. In these days in which he can get treatment and rest on Wednesday I wouldn’t worry, but Day plays the North Course on Thursday so he needs to go low. With his lack of play in events the last four months and this flu scare it’s putting a big time scare on me and I am taking him out of my Draft Kings six.

Sal – how much of an advantage is it to play the easier NC on the first day as opposed to playing the more challenging SC? I would think it would be an advantage to play the NC on the first day and be able to shoot a low number.
Is there a way to search this in your data base – NC vs SC or is it categorized all as one course Torrey Pines?

In the past it’s been big, but for some reason in the first round it’s been smaller. It will be interesting to see what happens in the future because starting next week the North Course will have a total makeup.
Still it’s not made to be tough like the South Course. Lot’s of seniors and regular golfers love the North Course because it’s not as demanding as the South Course.