Posts

Conservatives always complain about the 'Welfare Queens' and the excessive benefits of the public sector workers. Graph below shows the highest paid public sector workers in the US.
For one I'm in favor of cutting expenses with most of these privileged public sector workers.

I just wrote a review of Daniel Stedman Jones's book Masters of the Universe: Hayek, Friedman, and the Birth of Neoliberal Politics, which will be published in the Social Science Journal later this year. So I don't intend to say to much here.

But one thing that was striking about the rise of the post-New Deal Neoliberalism, starting with the Mont Pelerin Society, is that they tended to group in organizations that were closed, not particularly democratic, and somewhat dogmatic, with a single or unique view on the relevance of market mechanisms, which allowed no space for individual dissent on where to draw the line between markets and the state. One should not be surprised that Friedman and Hayek provided qualified support for such examples of closed societies as Pinochet's Chile.

By the way, on Friedman's forecasting abilities one quote from the book, a letter from Friedman to Samuel Bittan, is worth noticing. He predicted that: "destruction of its [Britain's…

Figure below shows the most recent data from the IMF's Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER).

The dollar remains more or less in the same place with 62% of allocated reserves being in dollars. The euro is a distant second. Data available here. For more read this. By the way, the graph provides a short list of the limited number of currencies that do serve as international reserve currencies. Most only marginally.

New Working paper at the Levy Economics Institute with Esteban Pérez Caldentey. From the abstract:
We argue that a fundamental difference between Post-Keynesian approaches to economic growth lies in their treatment of investment. Kaleckian-Robinsonian models postulate an investment function dependent on the accelerator and profitability. Some of these models rely on the importance of profitability, captured by the profit share, to make the case for profit-led growth. For their part, Kaldorian models place the emphasis on the accelerator. More important, investment is a derived demand; that is, it is ruled by the adjustment of capacity to exogenous demand, which, in turn, determines the normal level of capacity utilization.

In our view, the Kaldorian approach is better equipped to deal with some of the issues relating income distribution to accumulation with effective demand in the long run. We develop a Kaldorian open-economy model to examine the conditions under which an increase in…

There is a general consensus that annual fiscal policy fights hurt the economy’s recovery. Many people, however, get the story quite wrong. It has nothing to do with 'uncertainty'; rather, it's the unfortunate fact that the brouhaha, in the final instance, leads to smaller budget deficits, i.e. 'austerity', significantly diminishing the level of effective demand.
It’s austerity that is reliably damaging to recover efforts, not uncertainty. And each year’s fiscal drama has tended to produce another dose of austerity. The very large reduction in the budget deficit between 2009 and 2012, combined with the extraordinarily slow pace of recovery over this same time period is not a coincidence. This should be a lesson to evidence-based policymakers: You should be much more worried about accepting more austerity as the price of ending the fiscal drama than any damage caused by the drama itself.
See rest here .

It is worth remembering that according to Eichengreen (1996, p. 25) “the most influential formalization of the gold-standard is the price-specie flow model of David Hume. Perhaps the most remarkable feature of this model is its durability: developed in the eighteenth century, it remains the dominant approach to thinking about the gold standard” (for a critique go here).

The idea is that, at least in a fixed exchange rate regime, inflation and deflation do all the work of adjusting the balance of payments (BOPs). Modern versions add credibility and all that (which includes austerity) for the stabilizing flows of capital to work. Why do I bring this up? Because of Martin Wolf's column (subscription required) in the Financial Times today, which has the graph below.

Note that the countries in crisis, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain have already adjusted their BOPs (in this case their trade balances). Yet the adjustment is more Keynesian than Humean, or to be more precise, …

Not much. Particularly after the initial stimulus spending came to a halt, as you can see in the figure below.
In part this is the result of GOP obstructionism, but also follows Obama's early move to emphasize a balanced approach to the deficit and debt 'problem,' meaning higher taxes and lower spending. Now, it seems, the consensus is that the shutdown will fail, but that does NOT mean that there is more stimulus in the pipeline. So we'll move to the next menace soon, the debt ceiling. Again.

As EPI noted in this recent paper on the ratio of CEO to average worker pay, from 1978–2011, CEO compensation grew more than 876 percent, more than double the growth of the stock market and remarkably faster than the growth of annual compensation of a typical private-sector worker, up a meager 5.4 percent. The increased divergence between CEO pay and a typical worker’s pay over time is revealed in the CEO-to-worker compensation ratio, as shown in the figure. This ratio measures the gap between the compensation of CEOs in the 350 largest firms and the workers in the key industry of the firms of the particular CEOs.
See rest here.

The BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey shows that over the last three years the position of the dollar as key currency has become more dominant. The figure below shows the turnover by currency and currency pairs.
You can see that the dollar was on one side of the operation 87% of the time, compared to 84.9% three years ago. The euro has lost some ground. Also, the average daily turnover in foreign exchange markets in April was around US$ 5.3 trillion.

Andrés Velazco, finance minister under Bachelet (and you wonder why the economic policies of Socialist governments are all but), tells us that according to Diaz-Alejandro "the combination of high commodity prices, low world interest rates, and abundant international liquidity would amount to economic nirvana for developing countries." And he goes on to suggest that all growth in the region over the last decade was fueled by external conditions, which now are basically gone.

While Diaz-Alejandro is certainly correct about the positive effects of the unlike external conditions it is far from clear that growth during the last boom in Latin America is only explained by external conditions, and that we should expect necessarily higher international interest rates and/or lower terms of trade.

Yes the Fed announced that they will end QE, and that (even the speculation that would happen) led to some run to quality, with more demand for American bonds, and depreciation of developing…

The graph below was prompted by a question to the Society for the History of Economics (SHOE) sent by Steve Kates, and by a response by José Menudo, on the use of the French term entrepreneur in English.
According to Prof. Menudo the first use in English is by Stuart Mill, in 1848. Note, however, that more widespread use only takes place considerably later in the 1920s. The alternative used before, undertaker, has other uses as well, but the comparison might still be useful.

Brief post, prompted by comment on previous post. Below the Mean Household Income Received by Each Fifth and Top 5 Percent.
Note that in real terms the bottom has had no gains since the early 1970s really. And that's true of the lowest three quintiles. Only the two highest quintiles have seen some increase in income, but at least at this level of aggregation since the 2000s there is no growth at the top too (if you open up the top 5 percent, things might change). Data here.

New paper by Eileen Appelbaum, Rose Batt and Ian Clark of CEPR
Increasing share of the economy is organized around financial capitalism, where capital market actors actively manage their claims on wealth creation and distribution to maximize shareholder value. Drawing on four case studies of private equity buyouts, this article published in the British Journal of Industrial Relations challenges agency theory interpretations that they are ‘welfare neutral’ and show that an alternative source of shareholder value is breach of trust and implicit contracts. It also shows why management and employment relations scholars need to investigate the mechanisms of financial capitalism to provide a more accurate analysis of the emergence of new forms of class relations and to help us move beyond the limits of the varieties of capitalism approach to comparative institutional analysis.
See here (subscription required).

Note: The light blue is the average annual growth rate during the earlier time period, and the dark blue is the average annual growth rate during the later time period. For each pair of bars represents a different income quintile.

A new edition of the Elgar Companion to Post Keynesian Economics edited by John King is out. See more here.
‘The Elgar Companion to Post Keynesian Economics is a comprehensive guide to economic analyses in the tradition of Keynes and the so-called Cambridge (UK) school of economics. The coverage of themes and different theoretical orientations within Post Keynesianism is remarkable and the quality of the various entries is impressive. John King’s invisible hand is responsible for a minimum of overlaps and an optimum in quality and comprehensibility. This book has already proved to be of interest to a wide range of economists and can be expected to continue to do so for a long time to come.’
– Heinz D. Kurz, University of Graz, Austria

Robert Skidelsky at a Liberty Fund event, not too long ago. Note that in the opening remarks he says: "I'm going to talk about the conditions of liberty, which seems a good
topic of conversation for a Liberty Fund event. Owing to the hazards of
the weather, I find myself the sole representative of common sense this afternoon." Not sure what the weather conditions had to do with it, but I must agree, given the venue.

The whole thing here. My only major disagreement is that I really do not think that Hayek is the great rival of Keynes, or even one of the major economists of the 20th century, given his contributions. On the neoclassical front, Hicks, Modigliani, by bringing neoclassical results in the long run, but opening space for Keynesian policies in the short run, associated to rigidities an imperfections, and even Friedman, with the return of the concept of the natural rate, were more relevant than Hayek.

The figure is in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). One should take these kind of comparisons with a certain caution. At any rate, the US seems to have a lower rate than most Western European countries and Australia. Source here.

Paul Krugman commented on the NY Times piece on Wynne. There are many little incorrect interpretations, which derive from his lack of understanding of the history of ideas. First, he equates Wynne's model with the old hydraulic Keynesianism (i.e. Neoclassical Synthesis) of Phillips (of Phillips curve fame, but also of the hydraulic model of the British economy). Nothing further from the truth.

Wynne came to economics via P. S. W. Andrews, one of his two most influential teachers at Oxford (the other being being Isaiah Berlin). Andrews and the full cost price authors that were part of the Oxford Economists' Research Group (OERG), under the leadership of Roy Harrod, and were in general more concerned with practical applications than with theoretical first principles. That influenced the way Wynne developed his skills as a modeler at the British Treasury, before being taken by Nicholas Kaldor, to head the Cambridge Department of Applied Economics (DAE), where he built together w…

Well okay, there are other more urgent crises, but it is worth noticing that PhDs increasingly end up as adjuncts, with significantly diminished job opportunities. And that at a time that tuition is skyrocketing (in part as a result of Baumol's disease), and making 'non-profit' organizations quite wealthy. And yes it does seem that "adjuncts are keeping the system afloat, and work in indentured servitude." See the full info-graphic here.

In an interview here (in Spanish), Carlos Ominami, ex-finance minister during one of the Consertación administrations, argues that Chile did not really have one model after the coup against Allende, but a sequence of policies, not always coherent, that cannot be reproduced by other countries. Further, he points out that the Chicago Boys did NOT privatize Codelco and actually increased the government revenue associated to nationalized copper.

He also notes that the infamous privatization of the pension system was a complete failure, "the marketing was the best thing about the pension system" according to him, and that forced later Socialist governments to re-introduce a State run system.

In other Chilean news, Esteban Pérez Caldentey gave a talk (here; in Spanish too) at the Universidad de Chile on heterodox (post-Keynesian) approached to economics, opening the door in a traditionally mainstream environment for broader and more pluralistic views.

By David Rosnick
Recent estimates of the U.S. economic gains that would result from the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) are very small — only 0.13 percent of GDP by 2025. Taking into account the un-equalizing effect of trade on wages, this paper finds the median wage earner will probably lose as a result of any such agreement. In fact, most workers are likely to lose — the exceptions being some of the bottom quarter or so whose earnings are determined by the minimum wage; and those with the highest wages who are more protected from international competition. Rather, many top incomes will rise as a result of TPP expansion of the terms and enforcement of copyrights and patents. The long-term losses, going forward over the same period (to 2025), from the failure to restore full employment to the United States have been some 25 times greater than the potential gains of the TPP, and more than five times as large as the possible gains resulting from a much broader trade agenda.
S…

The NYTimes had a nice piece on Wynne recently. If you missed it, here is the link. They note that:
"If the economics profession takes on the challenge of reworking the mainstream models that famously failed to predict the crisis, it might well turn to one of the few economists who saw it coming, Wynne Godley of the Levy Economics Institute. Mr. Godley, unfortunately, died at 83 in 2010, perhaps too soon to bask in the credit many feel he deserves."
Note that he did see the 2008 crisis, which basically confirmed several of his predictions.

Something I have not posted about, but that deserves attention is the organization of fast food workers this summer, and the series of walk outs to demand a living wage of $15 per hour (see here, for example). Note that the current minimum wage is less than half at $7.25 per hour, last raised in 2009. Figure below shows the real value now is well below the average of the 1960s and 1970s (data for nominal minimum wage here).
Since the 1980s the real minimum wage has fluctuated at a lower level. One can only hope that fast food workers, with the support of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), manage to obtain some concessions from junk food corporations.

For a discussion of the Living Wage see this paper by Bob Pollin, and his book (here).

PS: Only recently I've learned that Henry Ford's famous $5 a day wage (which would be more or less $14 per hour today), which went together with reduction of work time to 8 hours per day, was controlled by the Sociological Depar…

Globalization, surely one of the most used and abused buzzwords of recent decades, describes a phenomenon that is typically considered to be a neutral and inevitable expansion of market forces across the planet. Nearly all economists, politicians, business leaders, and mainstream journalists view globalization as the natural result of economic development, and a beneficial one at that. But, as noted economist Martin Hart-Landsberg argues, this perception does not match the reality of globalization. The rise of transnational corporations and their global production chains was the result of intentional and political acts, decisions made at the highest levels of power. Their aim—to increase profits by seeking the cheapest sources of labor and raw materials—was facilitated through policy-making at the national and international levels, and was largely successful. But workers in every nation have paid the costs, in the form of increased inequality and poverty, the destruction of social we…

Free Exchange, one of the The Economist's blogs, had a post recently on the secular declining prices of commodities. The post suggest that there is significant evidence in favor of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis (PSH), based on an IMF paper (available here).

Note that the notion that there is something correct about the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis is not really news. José Antonio Ocampo has written several papers recently (see here and here) showing that overall terms of trade for commodity producers did not go well, particularly in two periods the 1930s, and the 1980s, which drive the negative long-term trend. But it is true, as we noted with Esteban Perez (see here), that many respectable authors still suggest that PSH must be wrong.

Note that while Prebisch did read Marx, and early in his life he considered himself a Socialist, it is far from clear that he can be referred to as Marxist, or suggest that PSH is a Marxist theory (for more on Prebisch see this review of his recentl…

Collecting and synthesizing a series of essays on the political economy of trade and development policy, this book explores the following research questions: to what extent is the global trading regime reducing the ability of nation-states to pursue policies for financial stability and economic growth; and what political factors explain such changes in policy space over time, across different types of trade treaties and across nations? Gallagher presents intriguing findings on the policy constraints on the Uruguay Round, as well as the significant restrictions that the USA places upon the ability of developing nations to deploy a range of development strategies for stability and growth.
See rest here.

Many of the entries in this blog directly or indirectly deal with the relation between the old classical authors of the surplus approach and the more radical authors that followed after the Keynesian Revolution (see here, for example). David Fields has pointed out this post by Michael Roberts on Marx and Keynes, from a Marxist point of view (after a debate with someone he refers to as left post-Keynesian).

This is not a bad post at all. The interpretation of Keynes given by the post-Keynesian author (in Roberts' description) is not the best, but it is one of the possible interpretations for sure. The unknown postie also correctly notes that:
"Keynes and Marx were united in their critique of Say’s law (that supply creates its own demand) as a common starting point for theorising about the possibility of insufficient effective demand and the realisation problem."
Which is important to emphasize, since some Marxists tend to have an attachment to Say's Law. In this res…

I keep hearing (and reading) more and more that Obama will nominate Summers, rather than Yellen. David Warsh says in his last column (here):
"Evidence is accumulating that the president is on the verge of making a very big mistake. Last week John Harwood, of CNBC, reported that a 'Team Obama' source had told him that Lawrence Summers would likely be nominated in a few weeks."
Further, Warsh does point out an often forgotten problem when discussing Summers possible appointment. He says:
"there is an issue of serious corruption. ... Summers’s best friend and foremost protégé, Harvard professor Andrei Shleifer (and Shleifer’s hedge-fund operator wife) attempted in 1996 to steal from better-qualified competitors Russia’s first license to sell mutual funds – all the while leading Harvard’s State Department mission to teach Russians American-style market fair play. The mission was shut down amid much embarrassment after their actions were revealed; the US Justice De…

There will be several obituaries and posts in the next few days about Coase's contributions (see here or here, for example), to the theory of the firm (his 1937 paper here; subscription required), which used the notion of transaction costs, later used by Douglas North and other economic historians, but also central for certain discussions in Industrial Organization, and his famous Theorem (or so-called as McCloskey calls it). He won the Sveriges Riksbank Prize (aka Nobel) "for his discovery and clarification of the significance of transaction costs and property rights for the institutional structure and functioning of the economy."

An interesting story is the famous dinner in which the main Chicago economists (including Friedman and Stigler) met for dinner [David Warsh calls it the most famous dinner party in the history of modern economics] with Coase at Aaron Director's home (Friedman's brother in law) and decided that the Theorem was correct. The paper (subsc…

In a recent interview with Dollars & Sense Bob Pollin says about the debate with Reinhart and Rogoff on the relation between public debt and economic growth:
"The heart of the matter is that when you’re borrowing money you can use it for good things or bad things. You can be doing it in the midst of a recession. If we’re going to invest in green technologies to reduce carbon emissions, that’s good.
We also need to ask: what is the interest rate at which the government is borrowing? The U.S. government’s debt servicing today—how much we have to pay in interest as a share of government expenditures—is actually at a historic low, even though the borrowing has been at a historic high. The answer obviously is because the interest rate is so low. When you’re in an economic crisis and you want to stimulate the economy by spending more, does the central bank have the capacity to maintain a low interest rate? In the United States, the answer is yes. In the UK, the answer is yes. Ger…

A Review of Edgar Dosman's The Life and Times of Raúl Prebisch.
"Raúl Prebisch remains one of the least well-known and most controversial ﬁgures in the history of economic ideas. In his native Argentina he is stillseen as a conservative technocratic economist working for the interests of foreign powers, while abroad, particularly in the United States, when his name is recognized, it is often associated with the forefather of the Marxist Dependency School. This is in part the result of the complex evolution of politics in Argentina and the world during the twentieth century, which makes it very difﬁcult to classify the ideas of an original and multi-faceted thinker like Prebisch. It also reﬂects Prebisch’s often contradictory positions on policy, particularly in Argentina."