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Thursday, 3 July 2014

Preview - Tour 2014

Tour de France Preview 2014

Those of you who have found this URL
again know that usually I write something every day, some days 1500
words or more. For nearly 19 years. This year I am going to write
when I write. That is, there happen to be several dates during the
Tour which actually are more important than the Tour. One of them
might be a local concert with some friends. Then there is the
meeting with cousins in Paris. A Social Forum I have been quite
active organising. http://forum-social-hauts-cantons-herault.org/ is
taking place during the first two days of the Tour. Then there is
the World Cup. At least it seems to be too busy to have time to
write as I usually do. So I am easing the pace a bit, as befits a
man in his later years. On the other hand, I would be quite
disappointed if I don't write something now and again. After all, my
four fantasy teams in various leagues are pretty much picked. So I
can at least comment on my teams and how they are doing. Joke.
Maybe not.

So this year, the course is slightly
more pointy, slightly more mountains and mountaintop finishes than in
the last few years. No team time trial at all. ONE and only one,
slightly hilly, individual time trial the second last day. Plenty of
sprint stages as well, so it looks “a balanced course”, as they
say. We have to wait to see if it will be a tour of anthology or a
last week without surprises. I was vaguely planning a trip to the
Pyrenees, staying with pals, so I could do a daily trip via car and
bike to the finish of three Pyreneen stages. The finishes are close
enough that it would have been only an hour or two by car to near all
the finishing climb. But then I thought about it, missing my nap for
three consecutive days, riding the bike no matter the weather (it can
get wet, hot and windy in the Pyrenees), being wasted all three days,
and realised I can't do it. Hope I get a chance to do it one day.
So the last three days in the Pyrenees followed by the time trial,
should make for an eventful third week. Fireworks probably. If
things go as planned, there should also be surprises that happen in
the first two weeks. Plenty of flat stages where we should see the
mighty three, Greipel, Kittel and Cav, duke it out. With six or
seven, not quite top level sprinters ready to take advantage of
mistakes. Arnaud Demare is a first- time French sprinter who is
wearing the jersey of French national champion. We will see how good
he is in the very best company. I won't mention all the others,
because there are maybe seven or eight more who might just snatch a
stage. I think most of the sprints are on good roads, a bit wide and
smooth. More mass sprint finishes this year than usual, I reckon.

This Tour begins with two days in
Yorkshire, riding around on the hills beloved by many millions of
people, especially cyclists and walkers. The Yorkshire stages are
supposed to be a sprint finish win for Cav, and the other a win for a
classics rider. Someone with a powerful, short hill climbing
ability, a puncheur. I have friends who might be on that last short
but steep hill in Sheffield called Jenkin Road, or “Cote de Jenkin”
for the Tour. There are some fears expressed about narrow poorly
surfaced roads with dry stone walls everywhere in the Dales. Me too
actually. I am really excited to watch those stages, as I have
ridden those roads. There should be tens of thousands, maybe
hundreds of thousands of cyclists and others out on the roads of
Yorkshire this year. Observers on TV will be stunned. Even English
people don't realise how easy it is to get from all the big cities of
the North to the route of the Tour. The third day, there is a ride
through the Essex countryside and a finish in front of Buckingham
Palace. Should be millions out in London and Essex too. In order to
see the Saturday live, I might have to absent myself a bit from my
very important Social Forum. Maybe I should organise a TV at the
event. I shall also have to miss the France-German footie match.
But Sunday I shall be watching avidly.

Then they are off to the North of
France, with a “commemorating World War I” twist to it. Besides
various semi-non-descript stages before the Tour reaches the Vosges
mountains, there will be a stage containing nine sections of pave,
totally 15.4 k. Lot of worries about the light weight mountain
climbers, the slightly casual bike handlers, the unlucky, the
slightly less powerful, those without a genius cobbles rider to
follow, and so forth. The teams of favourites have usually got one
or two guys on the team who know the cobbles, and will hopefully gain
a few seconds leading their GC contender properly throughout that
day. Until the Vosges Mountains, there are at least several
occasions when some rider who had hoped for a high finish will lose a
packet of time and give up on the GC. I hope I am wrong, but
something will probably happen to someone during those days. I was
actually slightly upset when Dan Martin crashed out of the Giro after
a few minutes. A few minutes! So I am hoping for good racing and no
damage to anyone, except maybe a bit of lost time.

The Vosges mountains are not really
high, not like the Alps and the Pyrenees. But they picked a good
route which could see some changes and surprises. The first stage
near the Vosges is flat except three climbs in the last few k.
Should be fun to watch and nice to see the approach to the hills.
Then a stage with big climbs, but not at the end. So which sprinters
will not be dropped? Then the last stage in the Vosges/Jura (Stage
10) is actually very wearing and difficult, seven classified climbs,
with a proper climb at the end. Froomie won the stage there two
years ago, breaking into the limelight. Les Planches des Belles
Filles is the name of the climb. Gotta look up that name, must be a
story there. At least one climber is bound to lose time. According
to legend, during the 30 years war, a group of young girls jumped to
their death the avoid being raped and massacred by Swedish
mercenaries. Hence the name: "The Plank of the
Beautiful Girls."

The Tour then wanders south, over some
hilly bits which are often produce an interesting stage, the threat
of breaks and all, nice countryside. Stage 13 finishes on a 20k
climb to Chamrouuse, which is preceded by another Category One climb.
The next day, they do the famous Col d'Izoard and again end by
riding up another climb. By the end of these few days, another few
contenders will have blown it, and some others will have emerged.
Already there have been four “mountaintop finishes”. Only two
more in the Pyrenees during the last week. So there should already
have been a fair bit of serious racing.

The Tour then moves west, getting to
Nimes one day, spending a bit of time with possible windy challenges,
then skip over the most of Languedoc Roussillon (where I live) to
start the last week. They have a second rest day before they hit the
Pyrenees. My wife asked if I knew if they took busses or train or
plane from Nice to Carcasonne, and I don't. Longish drive though.
The next three stages all climb big mountains. After a flattish
start, the first one climbs a rather hard col, but then takes a fast
downhill to the finish. The next stage climbs three category one
passes, and then ends at the ski station in St. Lary - Pla d'Adet.
Probably the “queen stage” of the Pyrenees and maybe the Tour.
The last day begins more or less easily, then they climb the
Tourmalet and end up climbing Hautacam. No doubt someone will profit
from that day, near the end of the Tour, last day of climbing.
Should be someone going for something.

The rest of the Tour is a flattish
stage, the ITT and the Champs Elysée. This year, instead of my
(lightly planned, alleged) trip to the Pyrenees for the three days, I
might be forced to see the Tour the last day. Or rather be part of
“the Paris spectacle”. I might not, it is not really how I would
prefer to see the Tour. Still, I might be there anyway to meet some
cousins I don't know. We will see. I must confess I would like to
be near that last curve through the Place de la Concorde, as they
head down the Champs for the last time.

So sprinters first. Sagan is totally
odds on favourite to win the green jersey. If something does not
happen to him, and he usually finishes races, then few will bet
against him. Current odds I could get on him are 4/7, Cav 11/2,
Kittel 6-1, and the rest following quite a bit behind. So the green
jersey contest might not be all that fascinating. According to nearly
everyone, Sagan will take the lead shortly into the race and keep it
til the end. Wouldn't it be nice to have a surprise? The more
fascinating race is between Cav and Kittel. Obviously Greipel,
Kristoff, Demare, Mathews, Degenkolb and Modolo (plus others on the
odd occasion, like Coquard, Eliani) will be part of the backdrop,
part of the setting. But what some avid fans want to know is will
Cav win more stages than Kittel. Last year Kittel took four stages,
and Cav only two, his worst haul in his short Tour history. But this
year, he has his self-selected lead-out man, Mark Renshaw and the
wily, old, still quite fast, Alessandro Pettachi, who are meant to
surmount all problems and deliver him to the 200 metre mark on every
sprint stage. But the Giant train is now considered “the best”,
and Kittel is stronger than Cav. Although I read Cav has been to the
weights room this year to try and pick up a bit more strength without
losing his fabled “jump”, quick acceleration. So that's the
story of the sprinters. It could also be the old versus the young,
but they are only a few years apart. A very interesting “young,
new sprinter” this year is Arnaud Demare, wearing the national
French jersey without any adverts on it (Thanks you, Marc).

As usual, I have no idea who will win
the KOM jersey. Could be anyone. For nearly any reason. Might be
some guy who just rides for points on mountain climbs that the rest
don't care about. Like Voeckler or Jalabert have done lately. Any
decent climber can target the jersey and win it. Every year I hope
there will be two or three guys who battle for the jersey, but there
never are. So pick a climber and back him. I will give you some
odds early on, and tell you who my colleagues on my cycling forum
think will win. I don't have a pick yet. Two of the best
possibilities will be Froome or Contador. They will be racing
seriously near the front, on all the last mountains stages. This
might “as a side effect” get them more points than other riders
who try to get the big points on the mountains that precede the last
one, and then get dropped on the last important climb. Other riders
like Pierre Rolland or Joaquin Rodriguez, or Valverde or Bardet or
Pinot are excellent climbers. One or more of them might make a mess
of their GC chances, lose many minutes early on, and then target the
KOM as a second chance at some kind of glory. Even Nibali might try
for it if he is not focussed on the GC. So there is a bit of mystery
and surprise in the spotted jersey competition, even though I doubt
there will be an actual contest. The mystery will be who actually
choses to target the jersey. We shall see. In fact, after the
stages in the Vosges we will have a lot of clues, but not until then.

Young rider. The white jersey. There
are a number of candidates for this. I think I might go for Tejay
Van Garderen, but I could just as well speculated on Michael
Kwiatowski or Andrew Talansky or … others who might well
accidentally happen to be sixth or eighth at the end of the Tour, but
are also young. I picked Talansky in the office betting pool. So
this jersey is usually decided by the end of the second week. Not
terribly interesting though, since if they are the best “young”
rider, they are most likely in the top ten. Top ten means you get
contracts for years to come, with any team you wish. Any team wants
a top ten finisher. So the fact that he is young is still worth
emphasising. Last year the guy who was second, was also the best
young, best climber as well. But Nairo Quintana won the Giro this
year instead. It is pretty unusual to be the best young, best
climber and second in your first Tour. He will be back. Still as a
young rider.

Of course there will be news items,
conflicts, gossip, possibly scandal before and during the Tour. This
year there are three items I will mention, although there are others
lurking in the background. They are part of the Tour, the gossip,
the decisions, the breaks, the mysteries. So Betancur, touted as the
leader of AG2R, a French team which has done very well recently,
seems to have some serious problem, physical or mental. He didn't
mange to make the trip back from Colombia in time to be on the team.
This was a surprise to to the managers. Whether this is a dope
problem, illness or something else, I don't yet know for sure.
Anyway, lots to reveal later. Probably. Nacer Bouhanni, the second
high-class sprinter on the FDJ team, winner of three stages in the
Giro this year, was not picked to ride the Tour. Hard to have two
sprinters on the same team, and also support a GC contender (Thibaut
Pinot). So Marc Madiot says. It is pretty well known that Bouhanni
is going to leave FDJ, maybe go to Cofidis, where he will be the
number one sprinter, with support. More to come on this. Too bad, I
would have liked to see him up against the big guys. If Arnaud
Demare, the “other” FDJ sprinter and current French Champion does
well, wins one stage or two, then it will have been a good decision.
If not … David Millar was recently informed, even though he owns
part of the team, that Garmin does not want him to ride the Tour in
his last professional year. A bit harsh, but it must mean that
Garmin want Talansky to have all the support he can have to do well.
Millar is not happy. Some say he was not that fit or strong. I will
keep you up on any gossip that seems important. You know that
Kreuziger, Contador's number one supporter in the mountains is not
riding. You can look up why he is not riding (irregularities), but
he is not riding. Dan Martin is not over his Giro injury, and won't
be there either. For that matter, Ian Stannard and Edvald Boasson
Hagen won't be on the Sky team due to injuries, which is a big deal I
think. Stannard is the kind of guy that ride as fast as anyone for
tens of kilometres, a locomotive. Sky will miss him.

I almost forgot the yellow jersey.
This is meant to be either Froome of Contador. It seems to boil down
to whether Contador will be able to successfully attack Froome (and
gain time) before the last time trial, where he is meant to lose
considerable time to Froome over the 54 k. So either Contador
attacks or he loses. Actually, the same goes for every other
contender. The odds are about even for those two favourites. The
next rider has odds of 11, 33 or higher. So I have no idea which of
those two will actually win. In my fantasy teams I have one or the
other, in one team, both of them are on the same team. And yet
another team has Valverde and Nibali in case something happens to
them both. Since I don't really care who wins, I am hoping I am
wrong about it being only two guys in contention. So I would prefer
that Talansky, Nibali, Rodriguez, Tejay, Valverde, Rui Costa, one of
the young French climbers or someone else (Chris Horner?!) benefit
from a bit of luck a bit of luck, and upset all the predictions. But
on the other hand, the most likely outcome is those two giants will
be a few minutes ahead of everyone else at the end. Might even be a
shoot-out duel up some hill between the two of them, good image, non?
There are debates about which rider has the strongest team. But in
each case, the teams of both riders have nothing else to do but to
get their leaders well up any mountain safely, where the Big
Favourites try blow off everyone else, including each other.

That is probably quite enough for the
preview. In case you want to checkup on the fantasy leagues I play
in, you can look in the following sites. Some people do not even
know they exist. I have been doing better this year in some of the
leagues than ever before. I might be getting good, but I am not
sure. http://www.velogames.com/http://www.nrtoone.com/fantasy/cycling/index.php?page=homehttp://www.cobblestone.be/
I admit that most people I know, even cyclists who like the Tour,
think this fantasy league game is a complete waste of time (or have
never heard of it). They might be right, in some sense. I might one
day write a blog about this question, why I do it, the complexity of
the activity, what I learn, and so forth. I think I did that once,
but I could do it again. Must search through the blogs to see what I
said a few years ago. Anyway, you may or may not hear more about
this. But I only enter fantasy leagues which have ONE team you pick
at the start, and then you don't have to “trade riders” during
the race. I don't like that and it is far too much work. One of the
leagues I am in has ten thousand entrants. I think. Anyway
thousands. One of them has about a dozen. But a high quality dozen,
one of our guys wins the huge leagues and others do very well. I am
not so skilled and knowledgable as several of the guys in the small
league, so it so even more fun trying to beat them. I nearly won the
Giro competition this year! Like ten points out of hundreds.

About Me

I have been writing and corresponding about the Tour each July for eighteen years. The Tour is a bit of a passion, but riding a bike is what I do all the year around. My club has a site http://www.cyclo-club-bedarieux.com/guppy/