State consumer confidence dips, faces critical test

Florida consumer confidence dropped one point to 76 in February after two months of increases, equaling last year's trend, according to a University of Florida survey.

By Anthony ClarkBusiness editor

Florida consumer confidence dropped one point to 76 in February after two months of increases, equaling last year’s trend, according to a University of Florida survey.

The test will come in March, Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center in the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, said in a news release. March of last year is when consumers’ mood toward spending dropped four points and continued to decline until August.

The outcome of several looming issues could weigh on the confidence index going forward, including conflicts in Syria and Iran, the European debt crisis and gas prices that are likely to top $4 a gallon this summer, McCarty said.

The outlook also could depend on the presidential election, the possible expiration of the Bush tax cuts next year, more budget cuts from Congress and fallout from steps to avoid default in several European nations, he said. In Florida, home prices are expected to decline again if legislators pass a law to speed up foreclosures.

For the time being, Florida consumers are modestly optimistic. The stock market has reached post-recession highs that could spur more investment, and state unemployment dropped below 10 percent.

Perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago dropped one point to 60, and expectations that personal finances will improve in a year dropped three points to 81.

Expectations for the U.S. economy over five years dropped one point to 82.

Perceptions of whether now is a good time to buy big-ticket items rose three points to 85.

Expectations for the U.S. economy a year from now remained at 75.

The index is benchmarked to a 1966 level of 100 and measures changes in perception over time.