Context of '5:00 pm EDT August 25, 2005: NHC Advisory: Katrina is Now a Hurricane'

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Tropical Storm Katrina becomes Hurricane Katrina, according to the latest advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Hurricane Katrina now has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, making it a Category 1 hurricane. The NHC expects that Katrina could strengthen before making landfall, and then weaken as it moves inland across South Florida through Friday. Models indicate that Katrina will move slight south of due west for next 12 hours, before moving northwest than north after 48 hours. NHC models agree on westward motion for next 36 hours, but continue to diverge significantly after that. One model takes Katrina northeast after 72 hours across the Florida panhandle, while three other models take Katrina significantly westward, indicating Katrina landfall between Mobile, Alabama and Grand Isle, Louisiana. However, the NHC gives two of the three models indicating a westward turn “less weight” because they have not been accurate over past 24 hours. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
Location: 26.1 N, 79.9 W
Direction and Speed: West at near 6 mph
Estimated Central Pressure: 985 mb
Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
West Palm Beach, FL: 99 percent
Panama City, FL: 14 percent
Gulfport, MS: 8 percent
New Orleans, LA: 7 percent
[National Hurricane Center, 8/25/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/25/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/25/2005]

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Katrina, now a Category 2 hurricane, continues to move west-southwest away from Florida, and is expected to gradually turn west on Saturday. Models have now shifted significantly westward. The NHC states that the “projected landfall is still about 72 hours away.” (In fact, Katrina will make landfall in only 55 hours.) The NHC expects that Katrina will strengthen over the next 24 hours, becoming a Category 3—or major—hurricane later today, and may be a Category 4 hurricane at landfall. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
Location: 24.8 N, 82.9 W (approximately 70 miles west-northwest of Key West, Florida)
Direction and Speed: West-southwest at near 8 mph
Maximum Sustained Winds: Near 100 mph with higher gusts
Estimated Central Pressure: 965 mb
Size: Hurricane force winds extend outward from the center up to 25 miles; and tropical storm force winds extend up to 85 miles
Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
Panama City, FL: 17 percent
Gulfport, MS: 16 percent
New Orleans, LA: 15 percent
[National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/26/2005]

Katrina, now Category 3 hurricane, will only strengthen during the next 24 hours, The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports. Katrina’s eye is now clearly visible, and central pressure is dropping. Models now agree Katrina will move west-northwest later today, before turning northwest and north over the next 2-3 days. Katrina is likely to be a major hurricane upon landfall. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
Location: 435 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
Direction and Speed: West at near 7 mph
Maximum Sustained Winds: 115 mph, with higher gusts
Estimated Central Pressure: 945 mb
Size: Hurricane force winds extend outward from center up to 40 miles; tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
Panama City, FL: 11 percent
Gulfport, MS: 16 percent
New Orleans, LA: 17 percent
[National Hurricane Center, 8/27/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/27/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/27/2005]

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues a special advisory that, with sustained winds of 145 mph, Katrina has become a Category 4 hurricane. Katrina also continues to grow, as hurricane winds now extend 70 miles from the center, and NHC warns that Katrina can yet strengthen, and will likely move northwest later today. Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
Location: 310 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
Direction and Speed: West-northwest at 8 mph
Maximum Sustained Winds: 145 mph, with higher gusts
Estimated Central Pressure: 935 mb
Size: Hurricane force winds extend outward from center up to 75 miles; tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
[National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005]

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns that Katrina, still a Category 4 hurricane, continues to intensify and grow larger. The NHC reiterates the hurricane warning for Louisiana to Florida, and expands the area covered by a tropical storm warning. It warns further that, “While the details of the landfall intensity cannot be known at this time… Katrina will be a very dangerous hurricane at landfall…. It must be emphasized that the exact landfall point cannot be specified and that Katrina is a large hurricane that will affect a large area,” warns the NHC. “NHC now expects Katrina’s path to move north later today.” Other aspects of the NHC Advisory include:
Location: 275 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
Direction and Speed: West-northwest at 10 mph
Maximum Sustained Winds: Near 145 mph, with higher gusts
Estimated Central Pressure: 935 mb
Size: Hurricane force winds extend outward from center up to 85 miles; tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
Probability that in the next 69 hours, Katrina’s eye will pass within 75 miles of:
Panama City, FL: 11 percent
Gulfport, MS: 26 percent;
New Orleans, LA: 29 percent
[National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005; National Hurricane Center, 8/28/2005]

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