I expect Kawhi and Tim to be on the bench with two fouls apiece called against them in the first 6-8 minutes of the first quarter. Miami will already have a head of steam, so the Spurs will need to weather the storm.

They need to be close by the end of the third and then apply the pedal to the metal in the 4th.

Limit the turnovers. Limit Miami's second chance points. Make the Heat pay for gambling on D.