Business

Milwaukee-area jobs outlook among top in U.S.

As the economy flashes mixed signals about the durability of the recovery, a widely watched employment indicator suggests that the jobs situation is stabilizing nationally - and that the outlook for the Milwaukee area is particularly upbeat.

Job prospects in the four-county area that includes Milwaukee and Waukesha tied with two other U.S. metro regions for sixth best among the 100 largest metropolitan areas, according to Manpower Inc.'s quarterly survey of employer expectations. Employers in metro Milwaukee "expect to hire at a solid pace" in the July-September period, according to the Manpower outlook.

On a national level, Manpower similarly sees the early stages of a jobs recovery.

Of the 18,000 employers surveyed, 18% anticipate an increase in staffing in the third quarter, while 8% expect a decrease, resulting in a net national outlook of 10%. After adjustments for seasonal factors, such as weather and vacations, the outlook becomes 6%. Meanwhile, 70% of employers expect no change in hiring, denoting relative stability in the economy.

The report by the global staffing services company comes only days after the U.S. Labor Department unsettled the nation with a report that private-sector hiring virtually dried up last month. The government report, which showed that nearly all of the 431,000 jobs created in May were temporary positions to canvass households for the 2010 census, renewed concerns that the recovery might be losing momentum.

Economists, however, regard the Manpower survey as a credible leading indicator of job-creation trends, not least because the survey has a 47-year track record. Over the long term, Manpower claims to have accurately anticipated government-reported data, which only looks backward at each month's developments.

While the survey results mark three consecutive quarters of positive outlooks, the 6% rate still lags the 20%-25% outlook that the survey registers during periods of healthy expansion, Jonas Prising, president of Manpower's operations in the Americas, said in an interview.

Also, Manpower carried out the sampling before a national debt crisis in Greece triggered an economic fallout in the European Union, and before the Labor Department reported the dismal May hiring numbers, Prising said.

But Manpower stood by its results for the latest quarter. While many suspect that federal stimulus spending or temporary census jobs account for most of the economy's new jobs, Prising noted that Manpower's data shows broad-based job gains that go beyond construction work - typically the main beneficiary of stimulus projects.

"We are in the early stages of the jobs recovery, and although we have a long way to go, the job market will continue to improve from here," Prising said.

Survey process

Milwaukee-based Manpower says it has the "only forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in size, scope, longevity and area of focus." The company surveys over 18,000 employers in all 50 states and another 61,000 employers in 36 nations. It asks one question each quarter: "How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the coming three months as compared to the current quarter?"

The recession took a particularly heavy toll in metro Milwaukee, which suffered the third-deepest percentage loss in jobs last year among all the metro areas with at least 750,000 jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. And none of those numbers reflects those who kept their jobs but had hours, pay and benefits cut.

From July to September, 22% of the metro Milwaukee employers surveyed expect to add new hires, while 5% foresee a reduction in payrolls, resulting in a net employment outlook of 17%.

Another 70% of Milwaukee-area employers expect "no change" in staffing levels in the July-September period; 3% are not certain of their hiring plans.

The Buffalo, N.Y., metro area posted the highest net employment outlook at 21%. Washington, D.C., and Virginia Beach, Va., were next at 19%, followed by Harrisburg, Pa., and Little Rock, Ark., each at 18%. Milwaukee tied with Portland, Maine, and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Pa., at 17%, just ahead of San Diego and Seattle, tied with net outlooks of 16%.

In the Milwaukee region, Manpower expects third-quarter job gains in construction, durable-goods manufacturing, transportation and utilities, wholesale and retail trade, information, professional and business services, education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and government.

Prising also noted that employers in the Midwest reported the strongest shift for the coming quarter, with a considerable increase in confidence year-over-year.

Changes in survey

Those who follow the survey will notice several changes in the latest quarter. Instead of analyzing the nation's top 201 metro areas, it now focuses on the top 100. And for the first time it began to issue a report on each of the 50 states.

"Employers in Wisconsin expect to hire at a strong pace during the third quarter," it said. In the July-September quarter, 21% of the state's employers in the survey plan to hire while 8% expect to cut payrolls, creating a net positive outlook of 13%. Another 66% expect to maintain current staff levels and 5% are not certain of their hiring plans, it said.

Employer sentiment is positive in 49 out of 50 states; the exception is Nevada, which has a minus-2% net outlook.

"Employer confidence across Asia Pacific continues to strengthen with stronger year-over-year forecasts reported in every country," it said. "Employers in India are once again reporting the most optimistic hiring plans globally."