Updated: Friday, 26 April, 2013 at 04:37 UTC Description The H7N9 strain responsible for the bird flu outbreak in China is unlike any that has previously been seen in this type of virus. So far, 110 cases have been reported, including one in Taiwan, and 23 people have died. Here are some things to know about this virus: No evidence of human-to-human transmission to date. So far, authorities said, there is no evidence that this virus can pass from person to person. That doesn't mean it can't happen later. "If limited person-to-person transmission is demonstrated in the future, this really will not be surprising," Keiji Fukuda, the World Health Organization's assistant director-general for health, security and the environment, told a news conference Wednesday in Beijing. The virus appears to be transmitted more easily from poultry to humans than H5N1, Fukuda said, referring to the strain responsible for the outbreak between 2004 and 2007, which claimed 332 lives. "This is definitely one of the most lethal influenza viruses that we have seen so far," he said. The H7N9 strain was never known to infect people until March. Before then, it was only found in birds. If the virus does start to spread easily between people, it could trigger a pandemic. "This is a serious public health situation and it's possible that a pandemic could start if this virus were to change to spread easily between people," the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on its website. "CDC is preparing for that possibility." [link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

Updated: Friday, 26 April, 2013 at 04:37 UTC Description The H7N9 strain responsible for the bird flu outbreak in China is unlike any that has previously been seen in this type of virus. So far, 110 cases have been reported, including one in Taiwan, and 23 people have died. Here are some things to know about this virus: No evidence of human-to-human transmission to date. So far, authorities said, there is no evidence that this virus can pass from person to person. That doesn't mean it can't happen later. "If limited person-to-person transmission is demonstrated in the future, this really will not be surprising," Keiji Fukuda, the World Health Organization's assistant director-general for health, security and the environment, told a news conference Wednesday in Beijing. The virus appears to be transmitted more easily from poultry to humans than H5N1, Fukuda said, referring to the strain responsible for the outbreak between 2004 and 2007, which claimed 332 lives. "This is definitely one of the most lethal influenza viruses that we have seen so far," he said. The H7N9 strain was never known to infect people until March. Before then, it was only found in birds. If the virus does start to spread easily between people, it could trigger a pandemic. "This is a serious public health situation and it's possible that a pandemic could start if this virus were to change to spread easily between people," the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on its website. "CDC is preparing for that possibility." [link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

Quoting: Luisport

"This is definitely one of the most lethal influenza viruses that we have seen so far," he said. The H7N9 strain was never known to infect people until March. Before then, it was only found in birds. If the virus does start to spread easily between people, it could trigger a pandemic. "This is a serious public health situation and it's possible that a pandemic could start if this virus were to change to spread easily between people,"

This part could potentially make the summer a scary time.Thanks Luisport.

Taiwan has stopped talking about the three health workers who became ill after taking care of their case #1- hear anything about that?

Quoting: SpiderJones

I think its a waiting game, by the look of things people have to come in physical contact with fluids that people excrete from having a cold. This a problem in places like China because they are buggers for spitting etc.

So to me this will be highly contagious in these parts of the world, and is a real danger

Taiwan has stopped talking about the three health workers who became ill after taking care of their case #1- hear anything about that?

Quoting: SpiderJones

I think its a waiting game, by the look of things people have to come in physical contact with fluids that people excrete from having a cold. This a problem in places like China because they are buggers for spitting etc.

So to me this will be highly contagious in these parts of the world, and is a real danger

Quoting: prodlikegod

Quoting: prodlikegod

Very true, they fucking spit everywhere.....disgusting....lived it for many years.....Just recently they have found over 18k dead pigs floating down the Shanghai river....um...then we hear about this flu...

Taiwan has stopped talking about the three health workers who became ill after taking care of their case #1- hear anything about that?

Quoting: SpiderJones

I think its a waiting game, by the look of things people have to come in physical contact with fluids that people excrete from having a cold. This a problem in places like China because they are buggers for spitting etc.

So to me this will be highly contagious in these parts of the world, and is a real danger

Quoting: prodlikegod

Quoting: prodlikegod

Very true, they fucking spit everywhere.....disgusting....lived it for many years.....Just recently they have found over 18k dead pigs floating down the Shanghai river....um...then we hear about this flu...

The first case of H7N9 influenza in TaiwanWe report here the first case of H7N9 infection outside mainland China.A 53-year-old male patient was admitted because of fever for 3 days after returning from Suchow, Jiangsu Province, China on April 9, 2013. He had been otherwise well except for a history of hypertension and chronic hepatitis B virus infection. The patient did not report a history of contact with sick persons or animals during the travel. He began to get fever and general malaise on April 12. He had no respiratory symptoms, gastrointestinal symptoms, or myalgias. The patient sought medical attention on April 16 when fevers continued. Two throatswab specimens tested negative for H7N9 with real-time PCR on April 17 and April 20, respectively. The first chest radiograph was normal. Treatment with oseltamivir was started at a dose of 75 mg twice daily. A follow-up chest radiograph on April 18 revealed interstitial pneumonia at the right lower lung, for which moxifloxacin was added. Progressive dyspnoea developed on April 19. Follow-up chest radiographs showed progressive bilateral lower-lung consolidation. He was transferred to National Taiwan University Hospital on April 20. The dose of oseltamivir was increased to 150 mg twice daily. Endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilator support was given on arrival because of respiratory failure. Ceftazidime and levofloxacin were started, although microbiological investigations were negative. Desaturation worsened despite use of supplemental O&#8322; at O&#8322; fraction of 100%. Inhalational NO was added on April 21 without benefit. Chest radiography and sonography did not reveal pneumothorax. He was put on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation on April 22. This patient’s sputum specimen was subtyped as H7N9 with the protocol provided by WHO Collaborating Centre in Beijing. Very high H7N9 viral loads (4·5-51·4x107copies per mL) were found in the two sputum specimens and one throat-swab specimen (collected on April 20 and April 22, respectively) while the viral load was undetectable in the blood specimens collected daily between 20 and 23 April.H7N9 might spread to other areas beyond Shanghai, China. Due to the rapidly progressing lower respiratory tract infections in infected individuals,1,2 extensive preventive efforts are needed to prevent further spreading of H7N9.We declare that we have no conflicts of interest.Sui-Yuan Chang, Pi-Han Lin, Jen-Chih Tsai, Chien-Ching Hung, *Shan-Chwen Changchangsc@ntu.edu.twDepartment of Clinical Laboratory Sciences and Medical Biotechnology, National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan (S-YC, P-HL); and Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital and National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan (J-CT, C-CH, S-CC)1 Gao R, Cao B, Hu Y, et al. Human infection with a novel avian-origin influenza A (H7N9) virus. N Engl J Med. 2013; published online April 11. DOI:10.1056/NEJMoa1304459.2 Guan Y, Farooqui A, Zhu H, Dong W, Wang J, Kelvin DJ. H7N9 incident, immune status, the elderly and a warning of an influenza pandemic. J Infect Dev Ctries 2013; 7: 302–07

BEIJING — As of Thursday 109 people have been confirmed to be dead from the H7N9 virus which emerged rather quickly this April after the typical flu season.

Human-to-human transmission has not yet been documented. However, reports from the World Health Organization state that 40% of the victims did not have contact with any type of poultry raising concern amongst the medical community.

Even more alarming is the fact that the virus has over a 20% mortality rate right out of the gate. If this proves to continue, we could possibly be looking at one of the most deadly viral outbreaks of all time. This is backed up by others such as journalist, Patrick Di Justo, who wrote, “As of today, dividing the number of confirmed cases by the number of deaths makes it look as though H7N9 is an especially bad flu, with a twenty-per-cent mortality rate. If true, this would be terrifying: the 1918 Spanish Flu, which has been called one of the deadliest plagues in human history, also had a mortality rate of around two percent.”

Not really any new info here, but the last sentence made me laugh my ass off.

Quoting: Vic-chick13

WTF was that? LOL.

Quoting: SpiderJones

There's no need for panic unless there are human-to-human transmissions," said Hui.Presumably, Hui's statement followed with, "in that case, by all means, freak the fuck out," but he probably had already passed his word count.

We’ve been seeing a lot of new activity in BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: BCRX), which we last covered on April 7th following a 42% run in the stock chasing the good news that the company received from the FDA about its antiviral agent peramivir. The program, which was presumed to be dead after suspension of its phase III trial in November 2012 due to futility, received a second life when the FDA decided to arrange a meeting with the company to discuss a possible path towards an NDA submission.

It seems that the FDA agrees with the notion that the phase III trial was set up to be a failure due to its design, and that peramivir has demonstrated its worth as an antiviral agent in previous situations. While many drugs development programs never survive a Phase III failure, peramivir seems to be a very special case.

BioCryst really needed the good news after the withdrawal of the IND application for BCX5191, and a failed attempt at a merger with Presidio Pharmaceuticals which raised major concerns about the company’s prospects going forward.

Now that confidence has been restored in the neuramindase inhibitor peramivir, investors are trying to gauge how much the drug could be worth based on the market success of Tamiflu (oseltamivir) and Relenza (zanamivir). While the method of peramivir’s delivery is different (it is an IV formulation), some evidence suggests that it may be particularly efficacious against strains of bird flu despite a similar mechanism of action.

This was why the drug was temporarily approved and utilized in the bird flu outbreak of 2009 in Asia. Looking back, we can see that the hype over peramivir caused an enormous rally in shares of BioCryst, sending the company well above $10/share as investors attempted to chase what seemed to be a best-in-class antiviral agent. Although it wasn’t proven in clinical trials, some still believe that peramivir could be the best neuramindase inhibitor out there.

H7N9, which is the most recent strain of bird flu, has caused a lot of recent interest in BCRX as investors remember how high the stock went in 2009. As described in an update on April 8th, 2013, the H7N9 virus infected at least 26 people at that point and killed at least 6. Between then and now, infections have risen to at least 108 and the death toll has risen to 22. Even more terrifying to Asian governments is the confirmation that the virus has spread to Taiwan, and commentary given by the World Health Organization.

Not only are they struggling to determine the source of the infection, but they have confirmed that it is an “unusually dangerous virus for humans” and that “more easily transmitted from poultry to humans than H5N1”. H5N1 was the strain of bird flu that claimed 332 lives between 2004 and 2007.

While BioCryst is unlikely to see financial benefit in the event that China, Taiwan, and other nations stockpile peramivir in reaction to the H7N9 outbreak, it’s possible that investors may bid up BCRX (again) in anticipation of a repeat of the run-up we saw in 2009. This may also put pressure on the FDA to approve peramivir through some alternative route, although we will see the details on this matter after BioCryst holds and reports the results of their pre-NDA meeting.

The Takeaway

Investors should realize that BCRX is a very news-driven speculative stock right now that will remain volatile and quite unpredictable as more news trickles in from Asia about the spread of H7N9 and the infection rates, as well as the death toll. If these rise, expect more bullish speculation on this particular ticker. Also note that Peramivir’s US development program was “brought back from the dead” with the FDA’s pre-NDA meeting which will (hopefully) provide a path towards FDA approval for BioCryst. Depending on the results of this meeting, BCRX should either move up (or down) quite violently, as this is the company’s “flagship” development program.

I wonder if anyone has tried any natural remedies that may help beat this damn flu?

I remember when SARS hit Toronto a while back. That was creepy. I had a few friends whose whole family were quarantined. People were wearing masks everywhere. You seen people walking up and down stairs or going on escalators but not holding the rails in fear of getting germs on their hands.