In a report issued to Congress,
the Bush Administration has finally admitted that global warming is occurring
and that human activity, namely the production of greenhouse gases, is the
cause. (See ďU.S. Report, in
Shift, Turns Focus to Greenhouse Gases,Ē The
New York
Times, 8/26/04, p. A16). Well, duh! The scientific evidence (for both
global warming and its causes) has been extremely strong since 1995. In that
year the U.N.ís Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a
summary of the research carried out by over 2,000 climate scientists from 100
countries. Data summarize by the IPCC showed that global warming was real and
that other explanations, such as sunspots or natural variation in climate,
could not explain the increasing temperature.

Since 1900, the average
temperature on the planet has gone up one degree Fahrenheit. The increase in
temperature, in turn, is caused by the production of greenhouse gases from human
activities such as driving cars or running a coal-burning power planet. CO2 is
the most commonly generated greenhouse gas, but not the only one. These gases
trap heat in the atmosphere, heating the planet beyond what would normally
happen. The historical baseline of CO2 for most of the last 10,000
years was around 280 parts per million. The current level is 379 parts per
million and accelerating. Even if we stopped producing greenhouse gases right
now, the climate would continue to warm for a time.

If you donít think one degree
Fahrenheit is much, think again. The weather around the world is getting hotter
and more extreme. Of the 18 hottest years recorded by humans, 17 have occurred
since 1980. The hottest five-year period in human recorded history was from
1991 to 1995. Glaciers are melting, icecaps are disappearing, and the number of
draughts, floods, and heat waves is increasing, as are the number of hurricanes
and tornados. If our production of greenhouse gases
continue the average temperature will increase from between 3 to 10 degrees
Fahrenheit over the next 100 years. In which case, the world we know would be
fried.

A recent study published
on-line in the Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences examines the impact of this kind of
warming on California.
Using detailed computer models to predict the changes under four possible
medium-range scenarios. The news is bad folks. Northern California and in-land
from the coast will experience greater warming than the southwest part of the
state, with temperatures of many inland cities equal to the current temperature
of Death Valley. The number, intensity, and
duration of heat waves will increase, especially in Los Angeles, as well the number of heat
induced deaths. Water stored in snow packs will decline substantially, as will
stream inflows to reservoirs. About 85% of Californiaís residents will face water
shortages. Californiaís
agricultural crops will suffer and the extent of alpine and sub-alpine forests
will diminish a great deal. Say goodbye to California wines and Redwoods.

While Bush has done absolutely
nothing over the last four years (except deny that global warming was
occurring), the Kyoto Protocol would not have been much better. Kyoto calls for
industrial countries to cut their emissions by 5.2% below 1990 levels by the
year 2012. What is needed to stop continued warming, according to
climatologists and biologists, is a 70% reduction in the use of all carbon
fuels in the next 20 years. Kyoto
would get us nowhere near that goal. Of course, doing something would be a
whole hell of a lot better than doing nothing. But it would not have been
enough. Only a very radical change in society and the economy can save us from
the collapse of our civilization and the massive die-offs that typically go
along with the collapse of a society.

Global warming is not just one
environmental issue among many; it is one of the greatest threats facing our
species. Global warming is not caused by an individualís negligence, but by the
very structure of industrial capitalism. It is a capitalist crime against
humanity. And those who do nothing, or next to nothing, in the Democratic and
Republican parties, are criminal co-conspirators.