Whatever is going to happen will happen regardless of our bet and if the BC doesn't happen, you will at least have enriched a charity by $300! As far as your counteroffer, I honestly can't do a head to head - "sadly" I'm on a cruise from Oct 17 - Nov 10:

so won't be doing anything with the races unless they can miraculously bring up live racing on those two days at sea.

Let me know if you change your mind; I do understand your concern and as 3-1 is your fair price, no overlay you need to jump at!

Maybe next year on the head to head with a change (maybe more; plenty of time and open to suggestions:) We each pick one horse for the two days (best bet) and the one whose horse pays more on an across the board bet wins. If both horses bring zero, costs us each $100 to charity. And if others want to get in, could be interesting/fun.

By the way, I booked the cruise as the BC became less likely (just kidding!)