NL Player Analysis-September 22, 2017

Domingo Santana was 0-3 with a strikeout against the Cubs. On the year he is hitting .279 with 28 HR, 84 R, 80 RBI, and 14 SB. He is having a true breakout season for the Brewers and fantasy owners. His current slash line makes him one of the best values on the season. The skills are very solid with 12% BB, 39% Hard contact, and a .224 ISO. The concern for Santana heading into next year is that he strikes out a lot at 29%, which is going to hurt his average and put him more in the .250-.255 range. He also doesn't hit a lot of fly balls (27%) which makes his home run rate questionable as well. The positives is that he does have a good approach at the plate, hits the ball hard, and does steal bases. On the flip side, he is likely to be overdrafted next year based on his end of year results.

Dexter Fowler-Cardinals-OF

Dexter Fowler was 2-4 with a RBI against the Pirates. On the year he is hitting .272 with 18 HR, 67 R, 62 RBI, and 6 SB. He started out the year poorly but has since turned it on. Over his last seven games, he is hitting .524 with 3 HR and 9 RBI. His skill set still looks great with 20% K and 13% BB. His power has upticked as well with a career high .234 ISO, which is backed up by an increase in his fly ball rate to 38% coupled with 38% Hard contact. Fowler contributes across the board in fantasy and should go overlooked next year due to his poor start this year but his skills are very solid.

Starling Marte-Pirates-OF

Starling Marte was 1-3 with a run scored and a stolen base against the Cardinals. Marte has had a very interesting year given that he was suspended for PED's and hasn't performed all that well when on the field. On the year he is hitting .255 with 6 HR, 40 R, 24 RBI, and 19 SB. Coming into the year Starling Marte was being drafted in the second or third round based on his contribution across the board in all categories. Leaving the PED stuff out of it, Marte will still be one of the more polarizing players in drafts next year. He offers speed, which is rare in today's game but his counting stats are going to be low in the Pirates offense which is near the bottom of the league. He will also be turning 29 in October, which means that he will be closer to 30 next year and it is reasonable to wonder how long he can go stealing 30+ bases. The other factor that makes him hard to project is his health because he has played more than 135 games just once in his career.

Sean Newcomb-Braves-SP

Sean Newcomb went 5.1 IP and gave up 2 ER on 4 H, 2 BB, and 5 K's against the Phillies. Newcomb through 18 starts has a 4.26 ERA (4.73 SIERA). He has shown plus velocity and stuff from the left side. His biggest weakness has been a lack of control with 12% BB. His strikeout rate is not great but it is above average and so is his swinging strike rate (10.5%). The concern is that he has had an issue with control since coming into professional baseball and it has been significantly worse in the second half. His walk rate has jumped from 3.98 BB/9 to 5.74 BB/9, which has also led to an increase in his home run rate (1.24 HR/9). If he were able to improve his command he would likely see an increase in his strikeout rate as well as drastic improvements in his ratios. However, as fantasy owners it would be a huge risk to draft Newcomb based on potential because he is not showing signs of growth as he finishes the year.

DFS Value Play

Jonathan Schoop-Orioles-2B

Jonathan Schoop has had a monster year hitting .295 with 32 HR and 105 RBI. He hits in the middle of the Orioles lineup and will benefit from playing at home in a hitter friendly park. He is just $2,900 which is too cheap given his production and matchup with RHP Jake Odorizzi, who has given up a .336 wOBA and 2.29 HR/9. This is a great matchup and price for Schoop. Fanduel: $2,900