Oakland Raiders

The Raiders’ football operation is in such a fine place at the moment, no one can challenge their choice of safety Karl Joseph in the first round Thursday. All the reports about him are that he loves to hit people and pick off passes. He’s the obvious plug-in replacement for the retiring Charles Woodson. General manager Reggie McKenzie didn’t out-think himself and made the smart decision.

Karl Joseph

Joseph’s only potential minus is an ACL surgery rehab issue involving his right knee — the injury caused him to miss most of the 2015 season — but the Raiders surely did a thorough investigation of the knee and must not be too concerned about it. Before the knee went haywire, Joseph had five interceptions in the first four weeks of the college season.

Of course, the Raiders could use cornerbacks, too. They might have been lusting after Ohio State cornerback Eli Apple or Vernon Hargreaves of Florida, but they were selected in the 10th and 11th slots, just ahead of the Raiders’ turn at 14th.

No big thing. The Raiders roster was in pretty good shape before the draft. It will be in pretty good shape after the draft. The 2016 season has very positive potential. So in that context, Thursday night was business as usual. Fans of the team have to be feeling comfortable about the way business is going.

That's why the draft surely had a melancholy tone for the team's Bay Area fans. Joseph might become a Pro Bowl safety one day. But he might not do that in Oakland. I still think the Raiders are more likely to end up in Los Angeles or Santa Clara rather than Las Vegas, for the reasons I cited in my blog post. But this 2016 is going to be one weird season. Season tickets are nearly sold out. The team is going to win a lot of games and have a better than 50-50 chance of reaching the playoffs. But with the team's stadium future hanging in the balance, those Coliseum parking lot tailgates will have an odd atmosphere.

One or two pick sixes by Joseph could make the three hours of football action between the tailgates even more fun, though. Good selection.

The Raiders and Las Vegas sounds like such a perfect marriage. The rogue-reputation franchise and Sin City. How sweet. But I regret to inform the potentially-engaged couple that there could be impediments to their union. At this point, I make the odds at least 3-1 against the Raiders moving to Nevada, for reasons I’ll explain below. But I do believe owner Mark Davis is serious about investigating or even embracing the idea.

Mark Davis

For now, there are credible reports that Davis will visit Las Vegas on Thursday for a morning meeting with people from the region’s tourism bureau and the Sands Group, a hospitality/casino company that wants to develop a domed stadium on Tropicana Avenue not far from the strip and McCarron International Airport. The University of Nevada Las Vegas is also supposedly involved in the proposal. Officials may ask Davis for a pledge that he’ll move the Raiders if the Sands Group and government entities can assemble financing for the $1.3 billion project.

I can see why the Raiders and Las Vegas would be interested in each other. Movers and shakers in the desert see a way to obtain a domed NFL stadium that could also host a Final Four or major soccer games, filling up all those hotel rooms that never seem to stop expanding. And officials in the East Bay . . . well, I’m not sure what they see. Davis is likely sick and tired of dealing with people who have done little to convince him they truly want to get anything done in Oakland.

No, taxpayers, I am not talking about handing over hundreds of millions of dollars to the Raiders. I am talking about even the most modest of proposals to interact with the Raiders’ wishes on the most elemental level. Politicians and bureaucrats of Oakland and Alameda County have shown no interest in offering up something that might be possible — say, a long term lease of the Coliseum land at a way-below-market rate? — as a negotiation starter.

Maybe the Raiders make a counter-proposal to that negotiation-starter. Or maybe the Raiders reject it all. But at least the city and county can tell constituents they tried to do something. Instead, ever since January when the NFL rejected the Raiders’ plan to join with the Chargers in Los Angeles, the plan seems to be this: Keep dragging heels and delaying and delaying in the hope something will happen and a feasible football stadium package will magically drop into Oakland’s lap.

It’s no wonder a frustrated Davis took Vegas’ phone call. It’s no wonder than Davis might make that pledge. He is no stranger to Vegas. He enjoys visiting there. He has toured Sam Boyd Stadium, which is the UNLV football team’s current home and would serve as a temporary venue for the Raiders while the new NFL stadium is built. Davis is also desperate to have his team play in modern facility. The Las Vegas folks will likely show him pretty drawings and make lovely promises. Plus, as I will explain a few paragraphs from now, he has nothing to lose by verbally pledging his love for the idea. Just don’t expect him to sign anything binding any time soon.

Common wisdom is that Davis intends to wait until early next year for any sort of firm decision about the Raiders’ long-term home because January is the San Diego Chargers’ league-imposed deadline to choose whether they wish to join the Rams as a co-tenant in their new Inglewood stadium. If the Chargers decline that option — which could happen, if their current attempt to construct a new stadium in San Diego succeeds at the ballot box — then the Raiders will have the next option to join the Rams in Southern California. And the Raiders would surely jump at that, the way things are going in Oakland.

That is, unless the Las Vegas thing turns out to be real. There are many more hoops to jump through before anyone should believe it is. Financing is always the stickiest issue in stadium formulations (ask Oakland!) and all reports indicate that at least some of the Las Vegas money would be provided by the state legislature. That would take a vote at the statehouse in Carson City. But the Nevada legislature meets just once every two years. The next session is not scheduled until February of 2017. Conveniently, that comes after the January 2017 deadline for the Chargers to make their Inglewood declaration, up or down.

What that means: Davis and the Raiders will know about their Los Angeles option before Nevada can tell him for sure if the Las Vegas stadium can be financed. That could put Davis in a pretty good negotiating spot. Essentially, his “pledge” to Las Vegas is a can’t-go-wrong proposition. If Los Angeles opens up in January, Davis can say that Nevada has not come up with a financing plan yet, so he is free to break the “pledge.” And if the Chargers take the Rams’ deal, Davis is in a nothing-lost, nothing-gained reset and can continue to negotiate with Las Vegas. And Oakland. And San Antonio, I suppose.

The NFL will have a big say about all of this, as well. Any move by the Raiders to Vegas must be approved by an owners’ vote. Some are against a franchise setting up shop in America’s gambling capital — Jason Cole of The Bleacher Report identified New York Giants’ owner John Mara as one of those who objects to that idea — and others may just believe Las Vegas is not a big enough market to support a NFL team.

The population of Las Vegas proper is roughly 600,000. The metro population is about 2 million That’s less than a third of the Bay Area’s population. If you assume the Raiders are splitting the Northern California potential football consumers with the 49ers right down the middle, that’s a significant drop in the potential customer base. Even more so if a team is splitting the LA market with the Rams.

Finally, there’s another factor about building support for a Las Vegas stadium that’s not often considered. Some of the Sands Group’s competitors and casino operators might not support the idea. They’d rather have people in their sports books gambling on NFL games all Sunday long, not leaving the casinos for four or so hours to attend a Las Vegas Raiders game in person. So if the stadium goes to a public ballot, count on some opposition.

So how does this all turn out? I still believe that by 2018 or 2019, the Raiders will be playing in either Los Angeles or at Levi’s Stadium. Just don’t ask me to “pledge” that it will happen. And just make sure to put any Las Vegas “pledge” by Davis in perspective. Lots of people make lots of promises to each other in Sin City. How many of them stick?

Well, heavens to Roman Gabriel. That was a fascinating yet predictable exercise in Houston with the NFL owners on Tuesday, wasn’t it?

Mark Davis

For the past year when anyone asked me what would happen with the Los Angeles and the NFL, I would recite the same mantra: “I have been covering the NFL since 1978. The richest guy always wins. Stan Kroenke, who owns the Rams, is the league’s second richest owner. He’ll probably get his way.”

Which is exactly what happened when the league owners met in Texas, with their limousines parked in the valet parking lot outside their hotel. After a day of wrangling and some false turns, the owners decided that Kroenke could indeed move the Rams from St. Louis. They greenlighted his proposal to build a stadium on the former Hollywood Park racetrack property in Inglewood, not far from the LAX runways.

In doing so, the league owners rejected the stadium proposal in Carson on which the Raiders and San Diego Chargers had collaborated for several years. Reports are that the Chargers have a year to join the Rams in the Inglewood deal, but if no agreement is reached within that time frame, the Raiders can cut a deal with the Rams in the same location. The Raiders also reportedly receive an extra $100 million of loan guarantees from the league toward a potential stadium project in Oakland — or in any other city they might choose.

Mark Davis, the Raiders’ owner, put on a strained smile at a post-meeting news conference Tuesday evening and congratulated Kroenke through gritted teeth. Davis then refused to commit where the Raiders might play for the 2016 season. Their lease at O.co Coliseum in Oakland has expired and they have not signed a new one.

The Raiders officially applied for relocation on Monday, which was expected. The St. Louis Rams and San Diego Chargers also submitted official papers to seek a move to Los Angeles. Next week in Houston, the NFL owners will meet and decide whether to move two teams, one team or zero teams to LA for the 2016 season and beyond.

An Oakland Raiders fan holds up a sign during the NFL game against the San Diego Chargers in the first half at O.co Coliseum in Oakland, Calif., on Thursday, Dec. 24, 2015. (Ray Chavez/Bay Area News Group)

Oakland fans and citizens will naturally be following those meetings with great interest. But here’s what they might not realize: The 49ers and owner Jed York could play a significant role in how the owners’ choice plays out.

To Bay Area fans, York is the 49ers’ owner who made a wrong decision in facilitating Harbaugh’s exit as head coach and bungled the hire of Jim Tomsula. But among his NFL ownership peers, he is seen as the league’s liason to Silicon Valley and the young executive who assembled the financing and built a billion-dollar venue that soon will host the league’s biggest game. That’s why York was placed on the NFL’s significant Stadium Committee, which monitors the facility-building efforts around the country–including St. Louis, San Diego and Oakland.

The stadium committee’s assessment of those efforts will play into the decision about which teams should be allowed to move. Whether fans of the 49ers like it or not, York’s voice will matter on that issue. When he speaks at the owners’ meeting on this issue, people will listen. It’s all part of NFL politics that fans don’t focus on, except at times like these.

All of that explains why, at York’s news conference Monday to explain Tomsula’s firing and announced what’s ahead, I took the opportunity to ask where he stood on the Raiders’ future. Based on my email and Twitter response, some 49ers’ followers thought that was stupid and out of line. I could not disagree more. Raiders’ fans matter, too. York has not made himself available to the press for many months and won’t be doing so between now and next week’s meetings. York would obviously be affected if the Raiders leave the Bay Area market solely to the 49ers. York also occupies a stadium that was designed for two NFL teams, in which case the 49ers’ obligations to pay off stadium debt would decrease (as would Santa Clara’s, since the second NFL team’s lease payments would go toward that debt).

So. This was the opportunity to get a NFL owner on the record about his feelings regarding LA and the Raiders’ move. So I waited until the end of the session when I thought the pertinent questions had been asked, then raised my hand.

The 49ers own five Vince Lombardi trophies. The Raiders own three of them. They never mingle. In fact, if you ask fans of each team, such conjugal trophy visits should probably be illegal.

Here are the Steelers’ six Super Bowl trophies. The Bay Area’s two franchises, combined, own two more than this.

But not next month. Or the rest of the autumn. As part of the Super Bowl 50 ramp-up and hypefest, the 49ers and Raiders have agreed to let their eight combined championship trophies go on tour throughout Northern California along with a popup exhibit that will include an educational component and autograph visits from “legends” of both teams.

Others believe the display won’t be that perilous. In fact, it might even be a sublime exercise to bring 49ers and Raiders’ fans together in peace. The traveling trophy road show is officially called “The 50 Tour: Champions of the Bay presented by Chevron.” Stephanie Martin, the vice-president of marketing and communications for the Super Bowl 50 Host Committee, called the concept a no-brainer.

“It was one of the first ideas we had more than a year ago,” Martin said. “We wanted to do a mobile tour that celebrated the region. So we contacted the 49ers and Raiders about bringing together the eight Championship trophies for the first time ever. They were both totally onboard. The Bay Area has more Vince Lombardi Trophies than any other region.”

Of course, technically, one of the trophies was not won by a “Bay Area team” because the 1984 Raiders claimed it when they were playing in Los Angeles. But even if you discount that one, Martin is correct. The “region” that has the second most Lombardi trophies is Pittsburgh. The Steelers have won six. In the New York “region” the Giants and Jets have combined for five, the same as Dallas. So presumably, this will be the most Lombardi Trophies ever available for public viewing in one place at one time.

One obvious inspiration for the “The 50 Tour” is the San Francisco Giants’ own trophy tour. After each of their three World Series victories since 2010, the team has its hardware on a journey throughout Northern California so that people can visit and have their pictures taken with the trophies.

The 50 Tour will have the same vibe, though with some added attractions. Here’s the list of scheduled trophy tour stops so far, although more locations and dates — in Sacramento or perhaps Monterey, for example — will be announced in coming weeks:

It’s come to my attention that the online version of my recent column assessing the Los Angeles stadium situation is a little confusing to read because somehow, the bold-faced type and bullet points were omitted from the online version when it was adapted from the print version. So here’s my shored-up adaption. It’s also the Director’s Cut and has some additional information that needed to be trimmed for space reasons in the print editions. Here goes:

Anybody who claims that they know how the Raiders’ stadium saga will end—and when it will end–is drinking delusion juice laced with shots of Throwing-Darts Brandy.

The truth is, no one knows exactly how this whole thing will turn out. Including the NFL itself.

Mark Davis

But in my view, there are five possible outcomes for what ultimately happens with the Raiders and Chargers and Rams, all of whom seek a move to Los Angeles. I’ll rank those outcomes in order of probability, from most likely to least likely:

THE RAMS MOVE TO LA WHILE SAN DIEGO AND OAKLAND STAY PUT, AT LEAST FOR A WHILE.

In my four decades of covering the NFL, I have gleaned one important rule: The richest guys usually get their way. Stan Kroenke, proprietor of the Rams, is worth more than $5 billion and is the league’s second wealthiest owner behind Seattle’s Paul Allen.

Kroenke wants to shift the Rams franchise from St. Louis to a proposed stadium he has enough money to build on the former site of Hollywood Park Racetrack in Inglewood. Kroenke would prefer to be there by himself initially. And in spite of the NFL’s huge ego, there are measured voices within the league who wonder if bringing two teams simultaneously to market in Los Angeles is such a terrific idea.

Two sudden teams would mean selling twice as many tickets and club seats and suites, dumping a lot of inventory out there at once. A safer choice would be to award just one team to Los Angeles and test the waters to gauge the area’s true pro football demand before adding a second franchise.

One little-discussed element of the LA scenario is the “relocation fee” that must be paid by whichever team or teams land there. One respected former NFL executive has told me it wouldn’t surprise him to see St. Louis be awarded the LA market on a solo basis, with the Rams’ “relocation fee” including major payments to the Chargers and Raiders. In other words, Kroenke might need to fork over $10 million to each of the 31 other NFL teams – plus an extra $100 million each to San Diego and Oakland because they were denied the LA market. The Raiders and Chargers’ owners would then be ordered to spend their extra $100 million on the stadium-building efforts in San Diego and Oakland, with hopes of inducing more civic cooperation.

RAMS MOVE TO LA AND ARE FORCED TO TAKE ONE OTHER TEAM AS A JOINT TENANT.

In this vision, the Rams and either the Chargers or Raiders hit town together—at the Hollywood Park site that seems more equipped to be done sooner–and turn Los Angeles instantly into a two-team town with the full force of the NFL’s marketing machinery. Continue Reading →

Have to admit, this snuck up on me. Thirty years ago this week, I moved to San Jose and began writing sports columns for the Mercury News. The first one appeared on July 6, 1984.

What? You aren’t celebrating the anniversary with cake and ice cream?

It has been quite a trip between then and now — and not merely a long, strange trip, although it did once include an interview with Jerry Garcia in the Candlestick Park dugout before a Giants’ game, during which the Grateful Dead guitarist revealed exclusively that he never did play much baseball as a kid but was a pretty decent softball pitcher.

The trip has included journeys to several continents to write thousands of columns, many of which were in complete sentences and in English. During those 30 years, I did make one brief detour back to Cincinnati where I wrote a general interest column for 16 months (and had a blast doing so until thunderstorms and earthquakes intervened, but that’s another story). Otherwise, every single one of my column words since the summer of 1984 has been written for the Mercury News and (lately) the Bay Area News Group. Ever since 1985, they’ve been archived electronically, which meant I had to thread up the microfilm to pull out this one.

Looking back over that original column, I was transported back to the nervousness and angst I felt. I was uprooting my family–which included a 2-year-old girl and a 6-month pregnant wife–and bringing all of us to a new place three time zones away from relatives and longtime friends. The Merc was in major growth mode back then. The bosses hired me to bring more attention to the sports pages and demonstrate that we could compete with the Chronicle, then the dominant sports page and newspaper in the area.

Maybe that’s why my first words in San Jose sound like a kid (see above photo) who is trying way too hard to impress. When I arrived in town a week or so earlier, there was a heat wave with thick smog in the air. The big local stories were the $60 million loss that the city of San Jose had just taken in the bond market, plus a report of underground toxic plumes spreading toward our ground water. None of that had anything to do with sports. But I must have figured that I should work them into the column so that I would sound as if I were already plugged into things here.

There are other dated references in the column to NFL founder and Chicago Bears’ owner George Halas (who had recently passed away) and the horse Swale (who had suddenly collapsed and died just weeks after winning the Belmont Stakes) and Love Canal (a hazardous waste disaster near Buffalo). Those references won’t make much sense to today’s readers. But it’s still fun to read and ponder that time period, when the Raiders were still in Los Angeles and the original soccer Earthquakes were still in business.

Here’s how long ago July of 1984 was: In the same day’s newspaper as my first column, Rollie Fingers was saving a game for the Milwaukee Brewers against the A’s and the Dodgers’ Ron Cey was hitting multiple home runs to beat the Giants. Also, the local cable TV company was trying to decide whether to carry either the Braves on TBS or Cubs on WGN because there wasn’t bandwidth room for both. Meanwhile, I guarantee that by the time this column appeared, I was already worried about what I’d write in my second Mercury News column.

The glorious angst continues, 30 years on. But I thought readers might get a kick out of reading Merc Column One. If not, they should feel free to move along and start ripping my current work. I won’t be offended. The relationship has worked pretty well for the last three decades. Thanks to all of you for that.

Now, to the Wayback Machine:

NEW GUY IN TOWNSan Jose Mercury News, July 6, 1984

I’ve never been very good at introductions. Somehow, I always manage to say the wrong thing.

A few years ago, I was introduced to the late George Halas, the man who invented pro football with the Chicago Bears. He wasn’t in the best of health at the time. I told him it was a thrill to meet him because he had won six or seven NFL championships before I was even born.

His health did not improve.

When I was introduced to Richie Allen, the former baseball player, I said I loved seeing him swing the bat because it was even fun to watch him strike out.

He wasn’t amused.

And last month at a golf tournament when I met Neil Armstrong, the first man to walk on the moon, I tried to break the ice by asking him how he liked “The Right Stuff.”

He said he’d neither read the book nor seen the movie.

I hope my luck is better today. I’d like to get off on the right foot here, at least before I begin sticking both feet in my mouth. When you write your first column at a new address, you want it to be good. This column won’t be as good as I’d like it to be — it never is — but if we’re going to be spending some time together, I figure you deserve to know a few facts about me and the way I do business. That way, when I write something dumb in the future, you’ll know why.