May 19, 1994: Agreement signed between the governments of Norway and Mexico; May 1995: Sale of high
efficiency compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) began

Expected Activity ending date:

December 1997: Last sales of the initial 1.7 million light bulbs will occur. (See project
description below.)

Stage of project b) :

In progress

Lifetime of activity if different from ending date c)

The emissions impact of the activity will continue until early 2006, based on a 33 month phase-in
for the bulb sales and an assumed eight year life of each bulb. CFE will submit the results of a
final participant survey in September 1998 and continue to collect payments for bulbs sold on
credit until December 1999. Monitoring and reporting to the UNFCCC Secretariat regarding emissions
reductions will continue through 2005. Additional CFLs purchased with money from the sales of the
first 1.7 million bulbs will be sold during May 1998.

Technical data d)

See Appendix A for a list of selected reports related to the project; Appendix B for details on the
estimation of emissions benefits; and Appendix C for detailed financial cost/benefit data.

c) Methodological work will be required to define lifetime of activities

d) Methodological work will be required to determine for each type of activity what the minimum
data requirements are.

GENERAL PROJECT DESCRIPTION (ILUMEX)

Background: At the time of the project appraisal in 1992, demand for electricity in Mexico was
expected to grow by more than 5% per year. Such growth would result in the need to add 14,000 MW of
capacity over the following 10 years, with investments of $3 billion per year. Mexico's installed
generating capacity is 80% thermal and emits an estimated 57 million tons of carbon dioxide per year as
well as emissions of other pollutants such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide.

The average price for electricity in Mexico is below long run marginal costs. Significant cross subsidies
exist among residential consumers with medium to large consumers subsidizing smaller users. The Federal
Electricity Commission of Mexico (CFE) is committed to eliminating these subsidies and had, at the time of
the project appraisal, the aim of raising the average price to equal long run marginal costs by 1997.

Project Description: The AIJ component of the project will replace approximately 200,000 ordinary,
incandescent light bulbs with compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) in the Mexican cities of Monterrey and
Guadalajara. This represents approximately 11.8% of the project total of 1.7 million replaced bulbs. These
CFLs require 25% of the energy of ordinary light bulbs to produce similar or better quality lighting,
resulting in less electricity generation and fewer fossil fuel emissions. They last up to 10,000 hours, or
thirteen times longer than ordinary bulbs.

The AIJ component of the project is funded with $3 million USD from the Department of Natural Resources and
Environmental Affairs of the Government of Norway. Non-AIJ related financing of the project includes a
grant of $10 million USD from the GEF, and an additional $10 million USD is contributed by the CFE for
total project funding of $23 million. Norway's contribution will pay for 200,000 CFLs, or approximately
12% of the project emissions benefits. Funding will be placed in trust funds set up with the Banco Nacional
de Obras y Servicios Publicos (BANOBRAS), with money to be used exclusively for the project.

The CFE, through its implementing units in the two cities, is administering the project by purchasing the
CFLs and selling them at 37% of cost (including project overhead and administration) to their customers at
existing customer service centers and at large companies. If necessary, other methods, such as door to door
sales, will be used. Customers may buy the bulbs on credit terms of up to 2 years. Customer payments for
the bulbs will be returned to the trust fund set up at BANOBRAS and used to subsidize additional light bulb
sales. It is anticipated that, in addition to the 1.7 million bulbs within the initial project scope,
several hundred thousand additional bulbs will be purchased by CFE and sold to customers as a result.

The project is on schedule in terms of number of bulbs sold. As of the end of 1996, 1.13 million bulbs, or
66% of the total goal of 1.7 million had been sold.

4.) Costs (to the extent possible):

Item

1994

1995

1996

1997

Total

Total cost of the project (thousands of US$)

682

5,629

10,467

6,221

23,000

AIJ component (thousands of US$ )

762

1,469

769

3,000

US$ per avioded ton of CO2 equivalent:

See below

Describe briefly how costs are determined:

The CFE produces detailed cost reports categorized by equipment, services, administration,
technical/coordination for both the central and local offices, and acquisition of CFLs. Approximately 75%
of the AIJ and total project budget are used for purchase of the bulbs. The other cost categories cover the
marketing, sales, administration, monitoring and evaluation efforts.

Several approaches were used to evaluate the cost per ton of CO2 emissions avoided. Since most
of the money was disbursed in 1994-95, no discount factors are applied. Likewise, no discount factors are
applied to the quantity of carbon emissions avoided. The cost per ton of CO2 equivalent is
estimated for the project lifetime rather than on an annual basis. The total number of estimated tons of
carbon dioxide equivalent reductions, from both CO2 and methane, over the lifetime of the
project is 727,130. The amount attributed to the AIJ component is 11.8%, or 85,801 tons of CO2
equivalent.

Costs attributable to avoided emissions can be defined in various ways, such as:

(1) Total project costs of $23 million; or $31.63/metric ton of CO2.equivalent.

(2) The money contributed by Norway and the GEF, $13 million, or $17.88/ton of CO2 equivalent.
CFE's motive in making a $10 million contribution to the project was primarily to delay building new
generating capacity and to avoid generation of electricity that it sells at a loss, so that portion of
expenses should not be attributed to the cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Financial benefits, based on an average use of four hours per day for six years for 1.7 million CFLs, are
estimated as:

(3) Net benefits to consumers of $16.78 million (avoided cost of electricity to consumers of $26.85 million
minus net costs to consumers of acquiring the CFLs); -$23.08/ton of CO2 equivalent.

If the value of the avoided electricity generation is considered, the cost per ton of CO2
equivalent becomes negative, regardless of which measure of costs of is used (that is,. (1) and (2) above).
Likewise, the value of the avoided net loss to CFE of not selling subsidized electricity as well as the net
financial benefit of avoided electricity consumption to consumers are both greater than the combined
contribution of Norway and the GEF to the project.

See Appendix C for more detailed estimates of the project's financial benefits.

5) Mutually agreed assessment procedures:

Describe the procedures including name of the organizations involved a) :

Projections of emissions reductions including technical parameters to be used, baseline
estimation, and the plan for monitoring the hours of use of the bulbs. (See Section E below and
Appendix B for details on the estimation of emissions benefits.)

Surveys of participants to determine participant characteristics, perceptions and satisfaction.

Organizations involved in determining the parameters and methodologies to be used include UNAM,
IIEC, CFE, the World Bank and INE. In 1997, a consultant will be hired to undertake a comprehensive
project evaluation, including evaluation of the monitoring and emissions benefit estimation
procedures and verification of results. Some procedures and parameter values may be revised based
on the recommendations of the consultant.

Bearing in mind that all activities implemented jointly under this pilot phase require prior acceptance,
approval or endorsement by the Government of the Parties participating in these activities which shall be
shown by:

In the case of joint reporting: the report is submitted by the designated authority of one participating
Party with the concurrence of all other participating Parties as evidenced by attached letters issued by
the relevant national authorities;

In the case of separate reporting: the reports are submitted separately by the designated national
authority of each and every participating Party. Information will only be compiled once reports have been
submitted by all participating Parties.

1) For the activity:

First report and joint reporting: please add copies of letters of endorsement by each designated national
authority of Parties involved in the activity:

The letter of endorsement will be sent accordingly.

2) This report is a joint report:

This project is a joint report. The project was endorsed by the Mexican Ministry of Finance and Public
Credit and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in an agreement signed on September 30, 1993. This
report has been endorsed by the Mexican focal point for AIJ, the UCCI (Unit for International Cooperation
and Conventions) within INE-SEMARNAP, and by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. ( Letters of
endorsement are attached.)

3) General short comment by the government(s) if applicable:

The items of the report describing the project, its implementation and its effects, have been completed by
the Government of Mexico. The investor specific items have been completed by the Government of Norway. The
World Bank, as the implementing agency, has provided assistance and advice in the preparation of the joint
report.

C. Compatibility with and supportiveness of national economic development and socio-economic and
environment priorities and strategies

Describe (to the extent possible) how the activity is compatible with and supportive of national
economic development and socio-economic and environment priorities and strategies

Mexico has a strong environmental policy framework and has completed a national environmental
action plan. As a party to the UNFCCC, Mexico is committed to formulate programs to mitigate
climate change. The ILUMEX project will contribute to reductions in local and regional pollutants
such as SO2 and NOx, which support Mexico's national pollution reduction goals, as
well as greenhouse gas mitigation which supports Mexico's position under the UNFCCC. The
economic benefits of the ILUMEX project include reduction in energy consumption and consumers'
energy bills and a delay in costly additions to Mexico's electricity generating capacity,
without loss of service. In addition, the CFE will avoid financial losses by not selling the
avoided kwh, which otherwise would be sold to residential customers at a loss. The project will
build institutional capacity in Mexico for technological change and energy conservation; make
consumers more aware of the importance of energy savings and how to achieve them; provide a
replicable model for demand side management (DSM) throughout Mexico and other countries in the
developing world; and strengthen the capacity of the CFE to practice large scale DSM and energy
efficiency projects on a on-going basis.

D) Benefits derived from the activities implemented jointly project

Whenever possible quantitative information should be provided. Failing that, a qualitative description
should be given. If quantitative information becomes available, it could be submitted using the update(s)
(if the amount of quantitative information is too large, the source could be indicated).

Item

Please fill in

Describe environmental benefits in detail:

See below.

Do quantitative data exist for evaluation of environmental benefits?

Yes; See Section E and Appendix B.

Describe social/cultural benefits in detail:

See below.

Do quantitative data exist for evaluation of social benefits?

Participant survey data may provide a basis for this evaluation.

Describe economic benefits in detail:

See below.

Do quantitative data exist for evaluation of economic benefits?

Yes; See Appendix C.

DESCRIPTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS

The project's greenhouse gas emissions benefits are anticipated to last more than ten years based on
the 33 month phase-in period for the sale of the 1.7 million CFLs and the conservatively estimated lifetime
of eight years for a CFL in use for three hours per day. Although the expected life of a CFL is 10,000
hours, the project assumes a life of only 8,760 hours, or eight years at three hours per day.

Estimated carbon dioxide (and other pollutant) emissions reductions of the project are based on a the fuel
mix used at the generation facilities serving Monterrey and Guadalajara during 1995 and 1996. The estimated
reduction in electricity demand resulting from the use of CFLs, was based on the average difference in
watts between the CFLs and ordinary bulbs, the number of CFLs in use as a result of the project, and an
average use of three hours per days.

Reductions of nitrogen oxide emissions, which have a greenhouse gas effect, have not been quantified as
carbon equivalents. Reductions in the non-greenhouse gas pollutants will result in better air quality and
benefits for human health, crops, vegetation and buildings. Water will be conserved as a result of the
generation avoided, which is especially important in Monterrey where water resources are more limited.

DESCRIPTION OF SOCIAL/CULTURAL BENEFITS

The project should have an impact on raising the awareness of the general public regarding energy
conservation. It is expected that the energy and electricity cost savings enjoyed by those enrolled in the
project will encourage non-participants to buy CFLs.

DESCRIPTION OF ECONOMIC BENEFITS

The project will provide economic benefits to participants who will enjoy comparable or higher quality
lighting at reduced costs. Economic benefits will also accrue to society at large and to CFE through
postponement of 100 MW new capacity and fuel use savings. An estimated total 940 gigawatt hours (Gwh) of
electricity generation, sold by CFE at a loss, will be avoided. The avoided cost of this electricity has
been estimated by CFE at $44,400,000 (1993$). CFE estimated the price paid by customers for this
electricity would be $26,850,000 over the same time period. (See Section A.4 and Appendix C)

E) Calculation of the contribution of activities implemented jointly projects that bring about real,
measurable and long-term environmental benefits related to the mitigation of climate change that would not
have occurred in the absence of such activities

1) Estimated emissions without the activity (project baseline):

Description of the baseline or reference scenario, including methodologies applied:

The baseline assumption for the project is the continued use of ordinary light bulbs by project
participants. It is assumed that, over the lifetime of project benefits, the CFE would not initiate the
ILUMEX project without the grant money and that ordinary light bulbs would not be replaced with CFLs by the
project participants. These assumptions are reasonable given today's economic climate in Mexico and the
high cost of the bulbs.

The baseline condition is the use of 1.7 million ordinary (incandescent) light bulbs, instead of CFLs. The
number of kwh required by the baseline condition is calculated based on the characteristics of the
incandescent bulbs that the CFLs replace (e.g. average number of watts), an average of three hours of use
per day, thirty days per month and the 8,760 hour life time conservatively estimated in the project
feasibility study for the CFLs.

Data on the type of bulbs replaced is collected from participants. The average number of hours of use per
day is currently estimated at three hours, based on the preliminary results of metering studies of the CFLs
in participants' homes. It is assumed that the CFLs and ordinary bulbs would be used for the same
number of hours per day. project benefits are counted for the lifetime of the CFLs. Distribution and
transmission losses for generated electricity on the CFE system of 18% are taken into account in the
estimation of kwh used.

The estimation of emissions per kwh is based on the fuel mix actually used at the Manzanillo plant which
serves Guadalajara (fuel oil and diesel) and the Monterrey plant (fuel oil and natural gas) in 1995 and
1996; the heat rate, or efficiency, of the plants; and the standard emissions factors by fuel type. In
1997, the current methodology for estimating emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases will be assessed
by an outside consultant and possibly revised.

2) Estimated emissions with the activity:

Description of the scenario, including methodologies applied:

The emissions with the project are estimated as those resulting from the use of the 1.7 million CFLs. This
is done in a manner similar to that for the estimation of emissions for the baseline scenario. The number
of kwh used by the CFLs is calculated based on the technical characteristics of the bulbs (e.g. average
number of watts per bulb) sold, an average of three hours of use per day and thirty days per month and the
8,760 hour life time conservatively estimated in the project feasibility study for the CFLs. Distribution
and transmission losses of 18% for electricity generated on the CFE system are taken into account in the
estimation of kwh used.

The average number of hours of use per day is currently estimated at three hours, based on the preliminary
results of metering studies of the CFLs in participants' homes. The estimation of emissions per kwh is
based on the fuel mix actually used at the Manzanillo plant which serves Guadalajara and the Monterrey
plant in 1995 and 1996, the heat rate of the plants and the standard emissions factors by fuel type. In
1997, the current methodology for estimating emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases will be assessed
by an outside consultant and possibly revised.

Metering: During 1996, data on time and amount of use has been gathered by metering light bulbs in
the homes of randomly selected samples of participants in each of the two cities for a period of up to two
weeks for each sample. During 1997 metering of additional households will be carried out. Results and
sampling methodologies used will be verified by outside consultants to provide revised estimates of hours
and time of use.

The completion and verification of the metering studies by an outside consultant may be used to re-estimate
the average hours of use per day of the CFLs.

Snapback effect: In the long run, project participants who face a lower cost of electricity service
may, as a consequence, burn the bulbs longer. This "snapback" effect could result in an
overestimation of project benefits. In the methodology used to estimate project benefits, this effect is
not taken into account. There are two reasons why this effect might be nominal or non-existent, especially
in the early part of the project. Residential electricity rates are increasing by an average of 1.2% per
month. This will partially offset the reduced cost of electricity service associated with the new bulbs.
For those who buy the bulbs on credit (the majority of the participants on terms ranging from 6 to 24
months), the payments for the bulbs will often be greater than the electricity cost savings.

CO2 equivalent: To determine the number of tons of CO2 equivalent, emissions of methane were
converted using global warming potential factor of 24.5 taken from the 1996 report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change.

Leakage: No additional emissions, outside the project boundaries, are expected to occur as a result
of the project. To the extent that the project will encourage or influence the purchase or use of CFLs by
non- project participants, it may be responsible for additional emissions benefits. Surveys on the monthly
sales and prices of CFLs, conducted before and after the project light bulb sales, will attempt to
determine if the project is responsible for CFL sales additional to those made to project participants. In
any case, no additional emissions benefits would be attributed to the project as a result of these indirect
emissions reductions.

The CFE will use money received from the sale of light bulbs to expand the program of subsidized CFL sales
to other customers. However, none of these emissions benefits will be claimed for the project.

Other Monitoring : Monitoring will be the responsibility of the Implementing Units with supervision
from the Project Coordination at CFE. A baseline sales survey prior to the project's initiation and
another sales survey at the end of the project will be used to determine if the project has influenced the
sales of CFLs to non-project participants.

A final project evaluation will occur six months after the project completion (that is the last sales of
bulbs), which is expected in September, 1997, to survey participant satisfaction and determine if any CFLs
have failed or been replaced.

Assumptions Used in Calculating Emissions Reductions: See Appendix B for assumptions used in the
emissions reductions estimates.

Fill in the following tables as applicable:

Summary Table: AIJ COMPONENT BASELINE AND ESTIMATED GHG REDUCTIONS

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

A)Baseline Scenario

Mwh

1,748

7,016

12,918

15,763

15,763

15,763

15,763

15,763

14,346

9,257

3,272

36

Project

Scenario

Mwh

499

2,004

3,694

4,504

4,504

4,504

4,504

4,504

4,099

2,645

935

10

C)Effect (B-A) Mwh not consumed

Mwh

1,249

5,011

9,224

11,259

11,259

11,259

11,259

11,259

10,247

6,612

2,337

26

D) Mwh not generated

Mwh

1,523

6,111

11,261

13,731

13,731

13,731

13,731

13,731

12,496

8,064

2,850

31

GHG Reduc-tions

(Metric

tons)

E) Effect of (D)

CO2

1,176

4,721

8,700

10,608

10,608

10,608

10,608

10,608

9,654

6,230

2,202

24

CH4

0.03

0.12

0.22

0.27

0.27

0.27

0.27

0.27

0.25

0.16

0.06

0.00

F) Cumulative

CO2

1,176

5,897

14,597

25,205

35,813

46,421

57,029

67,637

77,291

83,521

85,723

85,748

Effect of (D)

CH4

0.03

0.15

0.37

0.64

0.91

1.18

1.45

1.72

1.97

2.13

2.19

2.19

Summary table: TOTAL PROJECT BASELINE AND ESTIMATED GHG REDUCTIONS

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

A)Baseline Scenario

Mwh

14,814

59,454

109,558

133,585

133,585

133,585

133,585

133,585

121,576

78,451

27,728

306

Project

Scenario

Mwh

4,233

16,987

31,302

38,167

38,167

38,167

38,167

38,167

34,736

22,415

7,922

87

C)Effect (B-A) Mwh not consumed

Mwh

10,581

42,467

78,256

95,418

95,418

95,418

95,418

95,418

86,840

56,037

19,806

218

D) Mwh not generated

Mwh

12,904

51,789

95,433

116,362

116,362

116,362

116,362

116,362

105,902

68,337

24,153

266

GHG Reduc-tions

(Metric

tons)

E) Effect of (D)

CO2

9,969

40,011

73,729

89,898

89,898

89,898

89,898

89,898

81,816

52,795

18,661

206

CH4

0.25

1.02

1.88

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.09

1.35

0.48

0.01

F) Cumulative

CO2

9,969

49,980

123,709

213,607

303,505

393,403

483,301

573,199

655,015

707,810

726,471

726,675

Effect of (D)

CH4

0.25

1.27

3.15

5.45

7.75

10.05

12.35

14.65

16.74

18.09

18.56

18.57

Summary Table: ACTUAL EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS FROM THE AIJ COMPONENT

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

A)Baseline Scenario

Mwh

1,748

7,016

Project

Scenario

Mwh

499

2,004

C)Effect (B-A) Mwh not consumed

Mwh

1,249

5,011

D) Mwh not generated

Mwh

1,523

6,111

Reductions in

GHG

(Metric

tons)

E) Effect of (D)

CO2

1,176

4,721

CH4

0.03 (0.7)

0.12 (3.0)

F) Cumulative

CO2

1,176

5,897

Effect of (D)

CH4

0.03 (0.7)

0.15 (3.7)

Summary Table: TOTAL PROJECT ACTUAL EMISSION REDUCTIONS:

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

A)Baseline Scenario

Mwh

14,814

59,454

Project

Scenario

Mwh

4,233

16,987

C)Effect (B-A) Mwh not consumed

Mwh

10,581

42,467

D) Mwh not generated

Mwh

12,904

51,789

Reductions in

GHG

(Metric

tons)

E) Effect of (D)

CO2

9,969

40,010

CH4

0.25 (6.1)

1.02 (25.0)

F) Cumulative

CO2

9,969

49,979

Effect of (D)

CH4

0.25 (6.1)

1.27 (31.1)

F) Bearing in mind that the financing activities of activities implemented jointly shall be additional
to the financial obligations of Parties included in Annex II to the Convention within the framework of the
financial mechanism as well as to current official development assistance flows, please indicate

Category of funding (For each source one line)

Amount (US dollars)

Government of Norway

$3,000,000

Federal Electricity Commission of Mexico (CFE)

$10,000,000

Global Environmental Facility (GEF)

$10,000,000

The Norwegian cofinancing was provided in addition to the Norwegian contribution to the GEF in 1993. The
availability of extra Norwegian cofinancing served to expand the project scope beyond what would have been
undertaken in the absence of this funding. Specifically, the Norwegian resources resulted in an increase in
the number of bulb replacements by approximately 200,000 bulbs. The purpose of the Norwegian grant is to
facilitate a demonstration project and the Norwegian government is not seeking emissions credits from its
investment in this project.

G) Contribution to capacity building, transfer of environmentally sound technologies and know-how to
other Parties, particularly developing country Parties, to enable them to implement the provisions of the
Convention. In this process, the developed country Parties shall support the development and enhancement of
endogenous capacities and technologies of developing country Parties.

Describe briefly the transfer of environmentally sound technology and know-how including where appropriate
the type of technology, terms, education, capacity building etc.

The project will enhance the capacity of the CFE to implement large scale DSM projects, including
additional high efficiency light bulb distribution projects in other parts of Mexico. Valuable experience
will be gained from the successful marketing operations of the ILUMEX project as well as from the
monitoring of emissions benefits and the participant and market surveys.

H. Additional comments, if any, including any practical experience gained or technical difficulties,
effects, impacts or other obstacles encountered

All relevant issues have already been addressed.

Fill in as appropriate:

Any practical experience gained:

Technical difficulties:

Negative impacts or effects encountered:

Whenever possible, quantitative information should be provided. Failing that. a qualitative description
should be given. If quantitative information becomes available, it could be submitted using the update(s).
(If the amount of quantitative information is too large, the source could be indicated.)

Other obstacles encountered:

Other:

APPENDIX A

SELECTED REPORTS AND STUDIES RELATED TO THE ILUMEX PROJECT

Feasibility Study and Program Menu for the ILUMEX project. Prepared by the International Institute for
Energy Conservation. December 1992.

Executive Summary of the ILUMEX Project and Technical Annex prepared by the CFE. August 1993.

Report on surveys of participants one year after the beginning of the project. The surveys were conducted
to collect data on the participants' use of the bulbs and determine their perceptions of the program.
Monterrey (February 1996) and Guadalajara (April 1996). Prepared for the CFE.

Report on the technical performance of the compact bulbs. Prepared for the CFE, June 1996.

Results of metering of light bulbs in participants' homes to estimate the number of hours per day and
time of day used. Metering was conducted in Monterrey in July and August 1996 and in Guadalajara in
September 1996. Prepared for the CFE.

Report to the Second Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change on a Mexico High Efficiency Lighting Project. Submitted by the governments of Norway and
Mexico. October 18, 1996

APPENDIX B:

DATA AND METHODOLOGY USED TO ESTIMATE EMISSIONS BENEFITS

The emissions reductions of the project are estimated as follows:

1. The kilowatt hours of electricity not generated as a result of the replacement of 1.7 million
incandescent bulbs with CFLs are estimated. This is based on the following parameter values:

Number and type of bulbs installed by month

An average bulb use of three hours per day (based on preliminary results of on-site metering of bulb use in
participants' homes.) and 30 days per month.

A bulb lifetime of 8,760 hours (12.4% less than the technical specifications of the compact fluorescent
lights (CFLs)).

An average savings of 50 watts per bulb (the difference between the average incandescent bulb wattage and
the average wattage of the CFLs used as replacements).

Transmission and other losses of 18% on the CFE system.

2. The kilowatt hours not generated are converted to emissions saved using:

Fuel mix actually used at the Monterrey and Manzanillo plants in 1995 and 1996.

The heat rate, or efficiency, of the plants.

Actual emissions reductions achieved and projections of future environmental benefits may be re-estimated
again, following a project evaluation to be carried out this year including an assessment of monitoring and
emissions estimation procedures.

EMISSIONS FACTORS (Tons/Tera-Joule)

FUEL:

CO2

CH4

SOx

NOx

CO

HC

Parti-

culates

Diesel

74.07

0.00003

0.672

0.068

0.015

0.147

0.44

Fuel Oil

77.37

0.0007

1.41

0.201

0.015

0.0936

0.682

Natural Gas

56.1

0.0059

.00876

0.188

0.032

0.00774

0.0259

Average Plant Efficiency: Monterrey: 28.61%; Manzanillo 38.01%

PROJECT FINANCIAL EVALUATION

(All monetary values are expressed in millions of 1993 US dollars)

PROJECT OVERVIEW

Number of Households

1'116'851

Total number of CFLs

1'767'000

Avoided capacity (MW)

100

Avoided Energy (GWh/year)

169

CFE

Project Costs

22.97

Lost Income from Unsold Energy

28.52

Total Costs

51.49

Value of Avoided capacity

53.98

Value of Avoided Electricity Generation

44.4

Revenues from Sale of CFLs

12.3

Total Benefits

110.67

Net Benefits

59.19

Benefits/Costs

2.15

CONSUMERS

Cost of Acquiring CFLs

12.9

Benefits from Energy Savings

26.85

Benefits from not Buying Incandescent Bulbs

2.82

Total Benefits

29.68

Net Benefits

16.77

Benefits/Costs

2.3

NOTE: These calculations were made by the IIEC, assuming an average use of the CFLs of 4 hours per
day and an average bulb life of 6 years. Elsewhere in the project report, these assumptions have
been modified to an average use of 3 hours per day and a lifetime of 8 years. When monitoring
activities are completed and the estimate of hours of usage per day is verified, the financial
evaluation of the project will be re-calculated. It should be noted that the total kilowatt hours
saved remains the same regardless of the average number of hours per day of use.

These estimates still represent a reasonable approximation of project financial benefits. Discount
rates used were 12% for CFE and 18% for the customer perspective. The long term marginal cost of
electricity generation is assumed to be US$.062/kwh. Average wattage saved per bulb is estimated at
50.4.