Here are three reasons “Brokeback” will succeed wildly, aside from its presumptive status as a very good movie.

– Everybody loves a little movie at the end of the year. This explains everything from “Million Dollar Baby”, which was a poory written, poorly conceived movie, on back through the past 10 years.

– It is being rolled out like Xbox 360, which is to say that it has manufactured desire via scarcity. You can see it in Houston on two screens at Landmark River Oaks, which is (almost) the smallest, least accessible theater in town. It also has the virtue of having lines outside, so crowds appear to be — and are, in fact — snaking around the block. And Houston is one of the few places you can see the movie at all so far. Instant desirability.

– “Brokeback” is Revenge of the Straight Girl. Gay people are flocking to the movie because because. Arty people are thronging because it’s getting high critical praise. Straight girls are dragging their boyfriends because it is their turn for hot boy-on-boy Ledger/Gyllenhaal action, which is get-even time for all the hot girl-on-girl action they’ve had to put up with in movies, beer commercials, late-night TV, you name it. And the guys can’t plausibly say no to “Brokeback” without looking like total insecure loooooosers.

No presumptions necessary, it is really, really good. Saw it Saturday at 10 p.m.; not sold out but close. The reason for the slow rollout was they didn’t expect numbers like this at all. The distributor changed its plans and will be speeding up the rollout. This is the first movie in 4 years to crack the top ten on less than 100 screens, (69 exactly, so read into that what you will). It’s doing business like The Blair Witch Project did.