DISCUSSION
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Tropical Cyclone Uesi continues to weaken further as it continues in the subtropical waters of the southwest Pacific Ocean, in between Australia and New Zealand. This system lost all deep convection in the southern periphery, although still maintains light convection, any convection that builds will be sheared. Even with this, there is no evidence of a frontal embeddedment based on latest data from various polar orbiting satellites and hence it is still tropical, that is transitioning into an extratropical cyclone as time passes. Wind shear is high at 40KTS and expected to remain generally at 35KTS until it drops back to moderate levels by Feb 15 and Feb 17. Sea surface temperatures continues to drop to 24C and expected to drop further. With this, any build up of convection is likely to be suppressed due to low sea surface temperatures. Models are indicating that this system is expected to move towards the southwest generally and slow weakening is expected from then, before a turn towards the southeast close to New Zealand's South Island is expected. This system is deemed extratropical by the Bureau of Meteorology while the Joint Typhoon Warning Center indicates that this system is a tropical cyclone. Regardless, this system is expected to bring cyclonic conditions to Lord Howe Island and will cause high waves over much of eastern Australia and New Zealand. Interests along Lord Howe Island, Australia east and New Zealand South Island needs to prepare for the system and monitor the progress of the system respectively using sources below.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL WARNING SOURCES:Bureau of MeteorologyBureau of Meteorology, New South WalesMeteorological Service of New Zealand (Te Ratonga Tirorangi)THIS IS THE LAST REGULARLY SCHEDULED BULLETIN, NO MORE BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED.
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Forecaster Knack

OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST

2020-02-06

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