Operatives: Liz Cheney could run again

Liz Cheney’s aborted campaign for a Senate seat was a six-month-long exhibit of mishaps and drama, but Wyoming insiders already are predicting she’ll run again for public office. One possibility: Her father’s old House seat.

Even as the former vice president’s daughter announced Monday that she was dropping her primary challenge to GOP Sen. Mike Enzi due to a family health emergency, she kept the door wide open to a future run.

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“Though this campaign stops today, my commitment to keep fighting with you and your families for the fundamental values that have made this nation and Wyoming great will never stop,” Cheney said in a statement.

That immediately set off speculation among the state’s small political class that the 47-year-old might try to run for the House seat Dick Cheney once held if it opens up in 2018 or maybe even try again for Enzi’s Senate seat if he retires in 2020.

Some Republicans issued statements openly encouraging Cheney to keep her options open, despite the fact that her Senate campaign led to fissures within the state GOP and generated accusations of carpetbagging.

“Liz is a rising star in Wyoming and national politics and we look forward to her return when the time is right for her and her family,” Wyoming state GOP chair Tammy Hooper said in a statement.

In the short-term, there is no office in Wyoming that Cheney could realistically win, a dozen political operatives told POLITICO. This undoubtedly factored into her decision to return campaign contributions and not immediately set up a political action committee.

Republican Gov. Matt Mead is likely to announce in March that he will seek a second term after the legislative session ends. Assuming he beats two primary challengers and a Democrat this year, Mead has said that he will not seek a third term in 2018.

Rep. Cynthia Lummis, the state’s popular at-large House member, might try to succeed Mead. Wyoming observers expect that a crowded field would then seek Lummis’ open House seat, but because there’s no a clear heir apparent, Liz Cheney would have a strong shot at the position, which Dick Cheney held from 1979 until 1989.

Cheney, who had never before sought elected office, is seen as more suited to a legislative body than an executive position like the governorship.

“Playing the family card keeps the door propped open,” said a veteran Republican strategist who has run several Wyoming campaigns. “You get the nostalgia thing for Liz to have her dad’s old seat. That’s kind of cool. And Cynthia would love to run for governor.”

Another Cheney run for Senate before 2020 looks less likely. The state’s popular junior senator, John Barrasso, is not up until 2018. He’s 61 but looks a decade younger and is already in Senate GOP leadership. Many expect Enzi to retire in six years, when he will be 76.

Former Wyoming Sen. Al Simpson, who had a public falling out with the Cheney family over his support for Enzi, is confident Liz Cheney will run for office again, though he doesn’t know which one.

“She is a part of Wyoming’s political future,” he said, just after speaking with her Monday morning. “She’ll be the decider.”

Cheney moved to Wyoming in 2012 from the tony D.C. suburb of McLean. If she stays in Wyoming, she will be less susceptible to criticism of her residency with each passing year.

Her boosters, even those who endorsed Enzi, said there have been plenty of Wyoming politicians who lost their first campaign but went on to later win statewide. They also noted that Cheney is still relatively young in the world of politics.

Others noted, however, that Cheney has to learn from her mistakes in the past six months.

Gale Geringer, a Wyoming-based lobbyist who was chief of staff to the late Sen. Craig Thomas, said Cheney was widely admired a year ago as a vibrant spokeswoman for conservatism on Fox News but that her criticism of the popular Enzi turned off many Republicans.

“The getting-to-know-you process was not positive for her in many ways,” Geringer said. “It will take some time to repair relationships, but it can be done if she’s willing to do the leg work. I’m assuming that, if she has all the talents we thought she did, she will learn from this and do it differently.”

Liz Cheney’s public spat with her sister Mary over gay marriage — the former opposes it, while Mary Cheney is a married lesbian — damaged her campaign, but one of the biggest knocks against her was that she was not an expert on issues important to Wyoming voters, such as mining and forestry.

A few Republicans suggested that Cheney take a non-competitive state legislative seat to show she can be modest and establish deeper roots.

“She’s smart, passionate and young — there’s plenty of political future for her,” Halverson said in an email. “I do not see her running for anything in the near future. Farther out, once health issues are resolved, anything is possible.”

National conservatives who backed Cheney also said they will stick with her.

“I’d gladly support Liz in any endeavor,” said RedState’s Erick Erickson, one of the few prominent conservatives to endorse her. “She’s a wonderful person.”