Models are still nuts

There are still some discrepancies in guidance, which leaves the potential open for changes. There is no doubt these spring snowstorms are bit a of challenge to forecast. That said, I have seen enough here to make a first call for snow amounts and discuss some impacts. ​

First call snow amounts

As discussed previously on this website, the main area of impact will be for the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. For those of us in Maine, we're on the fringe for this one. The mountains and most of the north are likely to see little to no snow from this storm. The game all along here is to figure out how much snow the coast was going to get. That was the one certainty going into this, and continues to be the main area of concern.

Poking holes into my own forecast

The thing that continues to gnaw at me with this forecast is the areas of high pressure and the cold, dry air that hangs over eastern Canada. Between that and the forecast track is what will more or less shut out the mountains and most of northern Maine out of this.

Looking at the ensembles, this is a flat system. It's not a very dynamic event. Sure, it's enough to cause issues to the south and southwest of Maine, but I am quite unimpressed with it as far as the state goes. I am not concerned over mesoscale banding that will pop up and dump snow wherever it pleases. I am not worried about big wind, although there will be some of that. The upper level energy associated with this doesn't impress me. Boundary layer influence appears minimal for southwestern areas, but with the warming of the day may bump totals to the high end for eastern areas.

With all of that in combination of the dry air close by, I think there is still a fair amount of bust potential at this point.

Timing... for now

To put this loop into a nutshell, southwestern areas see most of the accumulation during the night until around sunrise and eastern areas get the bulk of theirs during Thursday daytime. The snow ends in southern areas Thursday morning, and the last of it exits eastern and northern areas by Thursday evening or soon thereafter.

​It will be enough to make a mess of the roads along the coast for sure. The Thursday morning commute could be greasy for the coastal plain up into the foothills of western areas, and for the Bangor and eastern zones on up into southern Aroostook during the day.

Roads will improve fairly quickly with the warming of the day for the foothills south. As the snow shuts off over eastern areas in the afternoon, travel will improve towards the end of the day.

We need to watch the shorelines again...

Astronomical tides come into play again later this week, and the tide for concern now is the 2 AM Thursday high water mark. Given the track of the storm to the south and east of the benchmark 40°N / 70°W point, that spares the region the worst of the storm surge and the stronger wind gusts. Those with shoreline interests should stay in touch with the National Weather Service for the latest on that.

This isn't anything we can't handle

Compared to the previous storm that dumped over 20" of snow around a lot of the area, this is nothing more than a nuisance event as it stands for now. We've seen far worse spring snow events. We're not out of the woods for another snow event as the cold air appears to hang around through the remainder of the month. We will see some melting for sure, but gradually. Given the ice jams in the rivers and streams from the previous two melting periods in January and February, this is welcome news to our interior water tributaries that have been impacted there. This will also help extend ski season also, and keep the snowmobilers happy for more action right into April.

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More updates to come...

As always, stay up to date from NWS Gray or NWS Caribou for the latest official forecast information, advisories, and bulletins.

The spring model circus continues

Here's your voice of rationality about late week storm potential. Beware of the hype! As I told you the other day on this very website, models are showing signs of spring by their erratic behavior. As I mentioned on Facebook Sunday morning, the Canadian GGEM model was showing hints that a trailing low could end up in the Gulf of Maine and bring a solid snow event. Now that today's morning model suites have all come in, now it is the European deterministic model that has the idea.

So now some may say "Well the Euro is the most reliable model and we need to think we're going to get nailed..."

​Just relax.

The difference between the European ​deterministic and ensembles

The European deterministic run is now the sole outlier in regards to this event. Yes, it is true that is it brings the storm into the Gulf of Maine. But before you go out and grab bread, milk, and think the kids will be in school until the Fourth of July due to all the snow days, you may want to look at this...

Since operational and deterministic model ideas spread like wildfire on social media, I thought it would be important to show you the rest of the story. Taking out the deterministic bias of all 51 ensemble members and giving each an equal say in output, the track is further east. With the further east track southeast of Nova Scotia, this would mean less of an impact.

So what about possible snow?

Let's take a look at the European ensemble mean snowfall potential from both the 00z and 12z runs from Sunday:

As I have been saying for the past couple of days, I have mentioned the MidCoast and DownEast areas have been my concern for snow with this trailing low, and that the coastal plain as a whole could see some snow out of this. The European model idea has been consistent with that idea. This chart above is that from the 00z (8 PM Saturday) overnight model run.

The ensemble idea did shift westward a bit on the 12z (8 AM Sunday) morning run...

All in all, it's a manageable amount of snow to deal with. Again, it's the MidCoast and DownEast areas that could get the higher amounts.

In this time of model volatility, it is always the safer bet to look at ensemble ideas like this rather than to purely rely on deterministic or operational models. More times than not, they are wrong this far out, and especially in seasonal change.

NOTE: This is not the final answer here. Tomorrow's runs will help eliminate some of the bias and feedback noise to help iron out the forecast. This is purely for discussion purposes and to present possibilities.

For the newcomers...

For those regulars who have followed this page for awhile, you'll have to pardon me here as I educate some of the newcomers... be very careful where you get your weather information from. If they aren't showing you or telling you what the possible options are, you should find another source. Model volatility due to the change of seasons is increasing due to spring's astronomical approach on Tuesday. With many folks on edge after three NorEasters in the past two weeks, there are people who will prey on you and will spread ideas that are driven for shares and attention. I don't work that way. ​​

Cold air pours in

The upper level low associated with this week's storm is finally spinning itself out. In its last gasp, it is on track to drag down January cold associated with arctic high pressure that settles in for the weekend. A weak trough slides down Saturday morning, and brings the chance for snow squalls that may bring a quick dusting and variable clouds in the morning, but are on track to clear out later in the day.

Other than that, the weekend should be void of any precipitation.

This is a look at wind chill values through 8 PM Sunday. We're not quite "freezer burn" level, but the mountains and north are likely to see "feels like" temperatures flirting with zero during the day and double digits below zero at night. Saturday night will be frosty everywhere.

The air mass appears to moderate as we head into Monday with temperatures on the increase as we head into the workweek.

While I cannot rule out snow for the foreseeable future, this is likely it for the bitter cold. Spring is gaining with the increase of daylight.

A sure sign of spring...

The change on seasons is on display in operational model output. As I regularly preach, models do not handle the cold well, which is part of the issue. Presented here are two operational runs of the European (ECMWF) model from Thursday evening (00z Friday) and Friday morning (12z) looking ahead to a potential storm next week. The 00z Friday indicates a decent snow fall, where the 12z Friday shows next to nothing. This is very typical model behavior for systems outside of the 5 day window.

BEWARE of what you see on social media from now on in regards to snow events. Not only are they not handling storm tracks correctly, the 10:1, 15:1 and Kuchera style snow fall charts are most likely WRONG this time of the year. The ratio of snow to water is likely LESS than what these chart depict, especially for the coast. For example, the chart on the left indicating 6-7" of snow at a 10:1 ratio above may actually end up being rough half of that, or even less in some cases. We're entering the phase where snow ratios will vary by region, with a drier snow over the interior to a wetter snow for the shorelines.

This idea of the GEFS (American GFS) ensembles also shows the volatility and uncertainty on the storm next week. The idea that I am getting from looking at guidance is that the idea of the lack of energy associated with this. The green ensemble mean idea on sea level pressure indicates the potential for it to be flat. In this scenario, there is nothing dramatic that would come out of it. The pressures listed on the little "L" ideas for potential areas of low pressure are rather tame.

At this point, if I had to make a call, the coast may get something out of this, and the jury is out how far inland the impact would be. The area I would have the most concern would be for the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England at this point. The position of high pressure in Quebec may have the final say in what happens, along with where and when all the ingredients come together with this system.

This is one to stay tuned on. Timing is still up in the air (literally) but a rough idea ranges from Tuesday afternoon / Wednesday and possibly into Thursday.

Latest storm in review

This was the snowfall map I posted yesterday. All in all I think I did alright with it judging the outcome.

As far as the mountains of western Maine go, it is still snowing there and will through Thursday, so I can't say I busted low there. Coastal areas were all dependent on the mesoscale bands so I knew it was going to be a bit of crap shoot. Where they ended up, it matched my 18-24" idea. Where they didn't, I busted there.

The 18-24" idea did real well in Eastern Maine. I knew the northeast corner of the rooftop would be a challenge, but it hasn't stopped snowing there either.

Maybe you think I did alright or maybe you think I blew it. That is your call. I don't see where I need to call myself out for missing it bad on this one, so by-in-large I am satisfied with my forecast. I knew the banding would tell the tale, and it did. Those are very difficult to forecast.

A quiet period through the weekend

This forecast loop runs from 8 PM Wednesday to 8 PM Monday. This is one model idea presented as a rough idea of what to expect. What to expect is a pretty quiet weekend once the current storm spins itself out.

After a mild day on Thursday, temperatures drop heading into Saturday where the mercury will struggle to make it above freezing in the far south. Sunday and Monday will be hair warmer, but the mountains and north appear locked in sub 32° temps through early next week from Friday onward.

Our nights are going to be chilly from Friday night onward with single digits and teens Friday night into the middle part of next week. These cold temperatures set the table for another storm.

Then there is the potential for the next one...

I posted this on Twitter this morning. The pattern is ripe here for another event. Both the European (ECMWF, left) and the American GFS (GEFS, right) ensembles are toying around with the idea. Looking a bit deeper...

... it is virtually identical to what the last two events have brought. Blocking to the north, cold from the northwest, strong high pressure to the east, and plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture to work with.

It's far to early to commit and say that it will happen, but I would give it a 60% chance that something could happen. These are all signals only for now. I expect model solutions to be north, south, east, west, on again, and off again until the weekend on this one. This is something to keep an eye on for sure.

Welcome to all the new followers on Facebook

I see my numbers have spiked up considerably as a result of the latest storm. Thank all of to those who shared Pine Tree Weather to the masses. This was the most viewed post I have had since the blizzard in January 2013 when I was operating Western Maine Weather.

It is VERY important that you follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as noted in the picture above to get the updates I put out. This is information that you can use.

Weather in Maine is very timely, and it changes quickly. The geography, topography and atmospheric patterns make forecasting a real challenge around here. I've lived in this state for 48 years. I've seen Mother Nature laugh at forecasters and embarrass the best of them at times. Some days I wonder why I decided to pick this up as a hobby when guidance is not very helpful. I've been embarrassed a few times myself. Some humans may think they have control over the environment through weather guidance, and I can tell you from experience that is not the case. Not even close. Humans have a long way to go to break the code. The one thing that has come along is that models supply better clues, but Mother Nature holds the card for the final outcome.

When I hear "Forecasters never get it right" or "it must be nice for these meteorologists to get paid to be wrong all the time" I wince. I was one of those cynical types who thought forecasters were idiots when something blew up. Now that I am on this side of the fence, I humbly apologize to every forecaster I cursed at.

The truth be known, weather forecasting is about ideas. It's not an exact science. We who forecast know that there is always margin of error. The root of the game is not be far off in error. Forecasting is a lesson in humility, perseverance, open-mindedness and on going education. Every storm is different. For me, it is very spiritual. Some other time I will get into that.

Thanks for joining me for the ride. You can find out more about me by clicking on the "Who I Am" tab on the website.

In other news, I am closing on the new home in Kennebunk tomorrow. I expect to move within a month. Updates will likely be off an on until summer when we finally get settled.

Final snowfall idea

Hopefully you are where you need to be and not planning on going too far, unless you are in Northern Maine where this won't have affects there until evening. This is shaping up to be a classic. I have adjusted the snow amounts. Yes, it's more. Plenty of cold air, plenty of moisture, the right atmospheric dynamics presents this potential.

This snow is going to blow around. This is yet another storm that won't be measured in inches, but by feet of drifts. Before I get tweets and Facebook comments saying "We only got 8 inches!" go check your neighbors yard. Some open fields will show little effect, while areas that snow can build up around will appear buried. If this was straight rain, we're looking at 1.5 - 2.0"+. Snow fall amounts may be locally higher in mesoscale banding. This also may rob some snow totals from other areas. That is the way these storms work.

I thought about pulling the trigger on this snow map Monday afternoon, but I wanted to make sure all the pieces of the storm fell into place. I am confident enough now to reveal it.

So when can clean up and recovery begin?

As I mentioned yesterday, this is a two day event for most areas. Snow tapers off from southwest to northeast Wednesday into Wednesday evening. The storm will weaken, but it won't be going far due to blocking. Snow showers from it are likely to return on Thursday which could bring a dusting to an inch or two of additional accumulation.

Blizzard conditions for the coastal plain

HRRR short term model here looking at wind gusts certainly shows a gusty affair. Blizzard warnings have been issued for coastal areas for the entire shoreline from Eastport to Kittery. You may not live in that zone, but that isn't to say whiteout conditions won't occur. The shear volume of heavy snow in the 1-3" range with even a light wind is enough to cause problems. Add in 20-40 mph gusts and that will be enough to cause travel problems. Power outages are likely to be an issue with the heavy snow and wind. Wind appears to settle a bit over western and southern areas by late evening, but speeds in the 15-25 mph range are likely to continue statewide through Wednesday. Snow will continue to blow and drift even after it gets moved.

Final thoughts

I keep saying with every storm there is always the element of surprise, and this one is no different. The unexpected occurs. This could get out of hand, like any other big storm. It's not going to surprise me to see some isolated areas receive 30-40" of snow out of this, with the Katahdin region and the ski hills the likely recipients. Interior York County, MidCoast and DownEast areas could be in the 24-30" range. Snow to water ratios are going to vary.

This winter started off with a bang with the late October Gale. This winter is going to end with a bang as well. This storm may not be the final parting shot. We have plenty of March still to go, and for us that have lived here a long time, April has been known to bring solid events as well.

To those weary of winter, hang in there. For snow lovers, have a blast.

Winter Storm Warnings across the whole state

With the exception of the upper two-thirds of Vermont, the New England region is under winter storm warning. Coastal Massachusetts is under blizzard warning. High wind warnings and wind advisories are also posted for the shorelines of the Bay State. This is going to a mess across most of the six state region.

Expect cancellations, roads shut down, and disruption to ground and air travel, along with freight, mail and parcel delivery.

Expect power outages to be likely.

If you absolutely have to travel, make sure you are well prepared in case you end up stranded. It could be a while before you can be reached. Road crews are going to be challenged at times keeping up.

Best thing to do is shelter as close as you can to where you need to be. Go to a friend or family members home. Get a hotel room.

This isn't anything that cannot be dealt with in Maine. For areas to the south, this is a crippling event.

Updated snowfall idea

With the possible exception of way Down East areas, this is an all snow event. It will be cold enough for copious accumulations. I expect a higher ratio snow in the mountains, which will be easier to move and a joy to the ski hills. The snow will blow around. This will cause drifting. It will also continue well into Wednesday, and beyond for the mountains and north.

Simulated radar outlook

While the heavier snow will fall over the region Tuesday and Tuesday night, wrap around snow showers are likely to persist well into Wednesday as the storm tracks into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. If you wake up Wednesday morning and think my snow fall call was a little short, you can expect to add another 2-6" on top of that, pending on region, by the time this is all said and done.

Mesoscale banding will tell the tale on this one. It's always hard to figure out just where they set up. Models are floating the idea of the potential of snowfall rates in the 2-3" range per hour in areas. This is likely to skew snow totals a bit in areas.

And the snow will blow around...

This is only one model idea, and this is used here for discussion purposes only. I do think this is a bit over done, but the potential is there. NWS Taunton has issued blizzard warnings for the south shore and Cape Cod. I am concerned that the MidCoast east of Wiscasset on up through the DownEast coast are likely to see blizzard conditions, if not an all out blizzard with this event. Add to it the heavy snowfall, little to no visibility, this is where traffic could come to crawl or a complete standstill.

Again, if you do not have to drive, don't. Stay off the roads.

For the latest bulletins and forecast changes, please stay in touch with NWS Caribou for northern and eastern Maine, NWS Gray for New Hampshire western and southern Maine, and NWS Taunton for most of southern New England.

Winter Storm Warning for most of New England

Looking at the watch/warning map as of 7:30 AM Monday morning, pink covers most of the six state region ahead of the third NorEaster to impact the area since the start of March. Time will tell if Northern Aroostook will get in on the fun, as their criteria for a winter storm warning is 10" over a 24 hour period, which will be a close call.

Gale warnings are posted for the bays, storm warnings are posted for the Gulf of Maine.

​The forecast remains to be a tricky one.

Headlines from the regional weather offices

Eastern Maine continues to be an area of concern for me as far as high end jackpot snowfall is that for Bar Harbor, Bangor, Millinocket, Danforth to Eastport with this storm. It would not surprise me to see 20+" come out of this, with locally higher amounts. Projected storm track has the low hitting the nose of Nova Scotia before tracking into New Brunswick. Given that track, much of the DownEast coast appears to have little coastal front influence, with the possible exception of the Lubec / Eastport / Campobello region.

For western and southern Maine along with New Hampshire, the ski hills will make out like bandits again. Amounts exceeding 18" are dependent on mesoscale banding. Locally higher amounts above 20" are entirely possible here as well.

For my southern New England friends and followers, this looks paralyzing and big. It's rare we see the south shore, Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard get hammered with heavy snow like this. This goes to prove how deep the cold is associated with this event. Much of eastern Massachusetts could see an epic blizzard out of this.

It's all coming together...

Simulated radar from the NAM model run at 2 AM Monday does a nice job showing storm formation along with the inverted trough coming together. It's that inverted trough that throws the wrench into this forecast. Models have struggled with this, and they continue to.

This loop also shows that snow and snow showers will continue for Maine into Wednesday. The cut off here is 7 AM and there is still more snow to fall.

And it appears that it will dump...

Another loop of the NAM model at 2 AM shows the big blast of snow. Once it gets started, heavy accumulations appear to start soon thereafter. The Tuesday morning commute for southern New England is a non-starter. For western and southern Maine and all of New Hampshire, you may get to your destination, but getting home could be an adventure. For eastern Maine, the morning commute may be a bit greasy, but manageable. Getting home there is also a problem. Northern Maine may wonder what the fuss is all about to the neighbors to the south, as snow fall does not appear to amp up there until Tuesday evening.

Snow fall at 1-2" or more per hour are likely. Add wind speeds at 20-40+ mph, snow will drift and blow around. This could be a borderline blizzard for the coastal plain of Maine yet again. Snow plows may have a rough time keeping the roads clear at times. Plan accordingly.

Why this forecast is tricky...

I saw this idea this morning and it raised a red flag for me. This is the Canadian RGEM model idea for snowfall in its 2 AM run this morning. I will make no bones about it... this is certainly an outlier, meaning its idea is differing from other guidance. Why this is rather peculiar is the fact this model handles snow events very well. It paints a different picture. The consistency in guidance is that Eastern Maine gets lit up, but to the west and south, guidance has been inconsistent somewhat. At the time of this post, there is still a decent spread with individual ensembles in the European model. Whenever there is discrepancy with key pieces of data, it brings in some level of doubt. I am not saying the RGEM idea is right, but I am noting that there is room for error here which could change the outcome.

A note about the storm track. While deterministic models seemed to make an eastward shift, their respective ensembles still showed wide variation in surface low positions, and at least in the case of the ECMWF the operational model was on the southern side of the ensemble cluster. The snowfall forecast is definitely not a final answer, but more the most likely outcome based on the current guidance available. Definitely expect to have to make some shifts to account for track variation, and mesoscale banding.

One question still definitely not resolved is whether banding features with extreme snowfall rates will remain off shore or pivot into coastal Maine and New Hampshire. At this point there`s no clear answer to the question. Will have to wait for the storm to take better shape and give mesoscale models a better chance to resolve these features.

​There is your room for error.

Snow continues for some areas through late week

As with the storm from last week, this storm is also stuck in a similar pattern. Upper level energy gets trapped over southeastern Quebec and spins around and around for days. Energy gets siphoned off into other areas of low pressure which brings off and on snow showers to the north and mountains through the remainder of the week. A clipper system drops down from Ontario on Saturday, and with a system brewing over the southeast, that will have to be watched for another potential storm early next week.

Keep yourselves updated!

As with any heavy snow event, there are risks for power outages. Make sure you have enough supplies for a couple of days in case of power loss. Gas up your vehicles. If you don't have to travel, stay home. If you do have to travel, allow for plenty of extra time and be prepared in case you get stuck or end up off the road. Keep a blanket, have snacks and water in your vehicle in case you get stranded. Stay at a hotel if you must to cut down on commute distance.

For the latest bulletins and forecast changes, please stay in touch with NWS Caribou for northern and eastern Maine, NWS Gray for New Hampshire western and southern Maine, and NWS Taunton for most of southern New England.

Heads up

This update will be a brief one. I am about to close on the property in Kennebunk and still going through the process of offloading my current home in Poland. This post will give you a rough idea of what to expect. The fine details are still to be worked out. You will need to stay updated through NWS Gray or NWS Caribou pending on your region of forecast changes and bulletins that will follow. I will do what I can to update. You will want to keep eyes on my Twitter account as that may be all I have time for.

Here we snow again...

This is a very fluid forecast and there is room for change. This storm has similar characteristics as the one did this past week. All that is circumspect at this point is the track, which as of Sunday afternoon is more over New Brunswick. That leaves Maine on the cold side of this from start to end. This isn't to say a coastal front may develop and knock down totals a hair from Rockland east, but for areas west of there, this does appear to be an all snow event. A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for the entire state.

It's important to note that this isn't ALL of the snow that will come. The idea illustrated here is for the first 30 hours of the event. Snow showers are likely to persist into Wednesday morning for southern areas, Wednesday afternoon for eastern areas, and northern and western areas may see snow showers last into Thursday. This will bring some additional accumulation, although most of the snow will be on the ground by Wednesday morning for much of the state.

Timing of the storm will impact the morning commute for southwestern areas Tuesday. Snow will overspread the state and intensify during the day and into Tuesday night. As I mentioned, snow showers are likely persist.

There is a fair amount of bust potential here. If the storm skirts east, western and southern areas will get lesser amounts, and eastern and northern areas could see more. The track is not set in stone just yet.

And the shorelines get another beating...

Thankfully, astronomical tides aren't a concern. The ocean has settled from the previous two events. That said, the shorelines will get battered again. Timing is everything with this event. The morning tides will be the highest of the two. Potential flooding, splash over and storm surge will have to be monitored.

Stay updated!

I wish I could do a bit more, but this is the best I can do for now. Stay in touch in NWS and local media for more on the timing and specifics with this event.

Still more snow to come for central and northern areas

At the time of this post at roughly 9:15 AM, southern areas in York County were seeing accumulations begin to taper from steady snow to snow showers. Using the HRRR short term model from the 6 AM run as a guide here for what to expect where you may be shows plenty of snow still to fall over much of the state.

The storm slowed a bit as it made the hook around Cape Cod, which in turn extended this event. Winds are very gusty offshore reaching upwards of 60 mph during the 7 AM hour. The storm is weakening over the cooler waters of the Gulf of Maine as it approaches DownEast areas this afternoon.

As the storm lifts to the north, snow tapers to snow showers before tapering off from the south to north by around midnight. Energy from this system taps into another storm brewing near Bermuda which will impact our weather picture Friday afternoon into Saturday with steadier snow for eastern and northern areas, snow showers for western and southern areas.

Another storm possible early next week...

This loop here is an idea proposed by the ECMWF model from Wednesday evening shows our current system, the trailer for the weekend, along with another potential storm for early next week. While the operational side of this shows the system staying to the south and east, ensembles paint a slightly different picture...

There is plenty of room for error with this one. Some guidance has the track closer to the region. For now, we'll call it a chance for a storm Monday into Tuesday and leave it at that.

Personal Update

I am doing my best to keep up with the weather activity and pass along what I can, when I can. I am in the process of buying a home and unloading the current one. I am closing on the destination property this coming Wednesday, and my current place is under contract to be sold. To add, I have a full time real job, and a family with health related issues going on. I may not update as quickly as normal, and I may even drop out of sight for a period as I deal with the issues in front of me.

Some people have voiced concern of whether or not I will continue full state coverage. I will say at this point my plan is to continue that. When I started this peanut whistle operation seven years ago, I had the idea that I wanted to take it to higher level. I am not abandoning that idea. What started out as Western Maine Weather turned into Pine Tree Weather as a result of requests from followers in eastern Maine. My plan is to continue to grow and become better educated and certified as a full fledged forecaster within the next five years.

I am not the end all for your weather information. I am simply an accompaniment. I want you to check in with the National Weather Service and local media for information. My mission all along is to present it to you straight, cut down on the hype, and present possibilities. Forecasts bust from time to time. That is weather. I hold myself accountable for my own ideas, and am quick to point out my mistakes. With all that has gone on in my life recently, I have made more mistakes than I care for. I am doing the best that I can with the time I have to put into it, and at the very least show you the potential of events that are coming.

Thank you for your understanding and your support.

I would love any storm reports that you can give me on the Facebook page and Twitter.

Winter Storm Warning now in effect

I am going to get right out in front of this because there is potential for this to get out of hand. Not only that, this could turn into a long duration event, especially for eastern and northern areas of Maine.

You'll have to forgive me here for not being as sharp with this one, as I am juggling a lot between the purchase and sale of homes, real job requirements, and family on top of it.

I do get the impression there is a skunk in the barnyard, because models handle occlusions (when cold fronts overtake warm fronts) very poorly. A hat tip to crankyweatherguy for bringing this to the forefront. If you are on Twitter, he's a good man to follow, and sharp as a tack on synoptic forecasts like this one.

About that "long duration event"...

While this is only one model representation, the surface map indicates a pseudo-Fujiwara effect scenario occurring over the region toward the tail end of the loop in the Friday-Saturday time frame. The initial storm makes landfall, curves into northern Maine, a trailing low to the west combines with the parent low, and a trailing low that blossoms around Bermuda siphons off the energy of the two areas into a new coastal low that slams into Nova Scotia. That storm tracks into the Bay of Fundy near Eastport, then moves eastward. This keeps snow and wind in the forecast through the weekend. Blocking to the north and east is what will hold this pattern in place. All of the upper level energy with the incoming storm is just going to spin around and regenerate surface lows which will cause this to happen.

Now the "blizzard" part of this...

Now that everything is coming into focus, the wind speeds are starting to amp up. I will be the first to admit that the NAM model depicted here has a tendency to overdo wind speeds, but I cannot dismiss the idea that this has potential. A rapidly intensifying system on track to make landfall along the DownEast coast could very easily set up the potential for blizzard conditions for the coast and coastal interior. By those areas, I mean Fryeburg to Waterville to Bangor to Calais to the shorelines. Whether or not it will be an actual blizzard (wind greater than 35 mph for a three hour period with visibility 1/4 mile or less) is a very fine line, but it certainly has potential to do so.

Thursday is shaping up to be an absolute bear. Expect widespread cancellations, and if you can take the day off from work, it would be a really good idea to do so. Plow crews are going to have a hard time keeping the roads cleared with the heavy snow and gusty winds that will blow it around. Power outages from the snow and wind are going to be another concern as well.

More thoughts on snow

This is the ECMWF (Euro) ensemble outlook for snow through Monday at 1 PM. I have five circles highlighted on here of areas (or in the vicinity thereof) that I think could reach upwards of 20" of snow by the time the weekend is COMPLETELY over. This area includes interior York County, Sunday River, Sugarloaf, Katahdin and interior Hancock and Washington County. Western areas see the bulk of this with the initial storm Wednesday into Thursday. Eastern areas get a solid thump from the initial storm, but have a second storm to deal with over the weekend. Outside of the northeast corner of Aroostook and the northwest corner of Oxford County near Wilson's Mills / Aziscohos Dam area, a foot of snow is a good bet at this point. It could go higher than that with heavy banding that is likely to occur. It could go lower than that in areas where the wind blows it away.

For the shoreline areas, I think at this point for Rockland / Portland area that any influence of a coastal front bringing rain will be short lived. Shorelines from around Wells to Kittery may see it hang on a bit longer, but 10-14" is likely the end result there with the dynamic cooling that is forecast to take place.

Once the snow begins in earnest, expect it to pile up quickly. One to two inches per hour, perhaps more pending on heavier bands.

Timing of the storm

Snow begins to arrive over southwestern areas early in the afternoon and then spreads northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. This will likely impact the evening commute as snow begins to pile up around 5 to 7 PM from the Portland area south. Points north (Lewiston, Augusta, Bangor and beyond should be alright getting home, but snow appears to accumulate on surfaces by early to mid-evening. For northern areas, you'll see snow arrive between the wee hours and daylight Thursday.

End times depend on region. Southwestern zones see snow taper to snow showers by mid to late afternoon. Eastern Maine appears to be early to mid-evening. I expect snow showers to continue for western and northern areas through the night and into Friday morning. Some areas may see a bit of a lull, but more snow is on the way with the trailing storm on the way Friday night into Saturday. Snow and snow showers appear to persist with that feature through the weekend.

More coastal battering...

With this system comes more punishment for an already battered shoreline. The high tide to be concerned about will occur during the 3 AM hour Thursday morning.

With a bit of storm surge, it won't take much to cause some minor flooding in Portland and vulnerable areas along the southwest coast. ​

The second high tide occurring around 4 PM Thursday does not appear to cause issues, but it would be wise to stay tuned in case it does.

Areas impacted from recent flooding should be on alert where the ocean has impacted barriers, sea walls, and roadways. ​

Stay updated on this storm!

Given the fact that this is a significant event, it would be wise to stay updated on the latest official forecast information from NWS Gray for western and southern areas, and NWS Caribou for the latest on northern and eastern areas.

Be prepared for this event... make sure you are stocked up on essentials, prepared for power outages, and fill up the gas tanks in your vehicles by Wednesday evening.