Denver’s 3Q14 Home Starts are up 14% over 3Q13; the highest number of quarterly starts since 3Q07

Pricing Squeeze Continues on First Time and Entry Level buyers as only 17% of new homes are priced below $300k, down from 40% in 2012

Closings rate is slowing down showing that builders should be cautious moving into 2015 and keep expectations realistic.

December 2014: Metrostudy’s 3Q14 quarterly lot-by-lot field survey of the Denver housing market shows that 2,215 homes were started in the quarter, up 14% from 3Q13. This is the highest number of starts in any quarter since 3Q07 and the first time builders have started over 2,200 homes in consecutive quarters since 2007. As a result of strong buyer demand and healthy builder sentiment, annual starts have ascended to 7,558, a 14% increase from 3Q13 and the highest level since 2008. Builders also closed 1,742 units in the third quarter, an increase of 3% from 3Q13.

Annual closings in the third quarter increased 4% to 6,455 home closings compared to 3Q13. Clearly starts continue to outpace closings, a sign at first glance that the market is growing. However, looking closer at the trend over the last several years, home starts and closings continue to grow, but at a declining rate. Builders have started nearly 6,100 homes year-to-date, up 16%, but have closed only 4,800 homes which is the identical number of closings YTD in 2013. Reasons for the slowdown in closings could include price increases, shortages in trade labor, and tight inventory. No matter the reason, builders should be cautious moving into spring 2015 and establish realistic expectations.

“Strong demand from move-up buyers combined with rising costs have placed more emphasis on higher priced product over the course of the last several years,” said John Covert, Director of Metrostudy’s Denver region. “The trend continues as all price points above $350,000 have experienced market share increases since 2013 with the strongest growth in the $400,000-$500,000 segment. For many 1st time or entry level buyers looking to buy single family detached homes, the market has few options available as they’ve either been priced out of the market or can’t find housing in the right locations, thus the need to recalibrate. Only 17% of all single family home starts in the last year were priced below $300,000 compared to 29% in 2013 and 40% in 2012.”

Denver Starts by Price

After five years of declines, vacant developed lot (VDL) inventory in the Denver Market has leveled off in 2014 with 10,565 vacant lots for a 21 month supply. Lot count is essentially unchanged from last quarter, up 1%, and also up only 1% from a year ago. “With home starts up 14% over the year, this can only mean that lot deliveries have accelerated in 2014,” said Covert. “Up over 100% from a year ago, lot deliveries have finally outpaced home starts for the first time since 2007. Normally this would provide some relief for builders, but with lot supplies still tight in prime submarkets, and most of the new lots already controlled by larger public builders, Metrostudy expects supplies to remain tight through 2015. In active projects, lots are virtually nonexistent for homes priced under $250,000 and months of supply hovers between 12 and 18 months for the rest of the segments up to $500,000.”

At the end of September there were 5,740 new homes in inventory, up 23% from a year ago and up 9% compared to last quarter. Of that total, 3,988 are single family detached units that are either under construction, finished & vacant or model homes (total inventory). Inventory levels for SFD are now at 9.1 months compared to 7.7 months a year ago – above the 7.0-8.0 months considered to be equilibrium for SFD total housing inventory and the highest level since Metrostudy began tracking the market in 2001. Again, much of this increase is to meet demand in the market, but with inventory high, and prices high, builders should pay close attention to buyer sentiment moving into 2015. There are another 1,752 attached (condo, townhome, duplex) units in total inventory, up from 1,488 units in 3Q13, an increase of 18%. Most of the increase has come by way of paired or townhome product, which represents over 1,107 of the attached units in inventory. The supply of attached inventory has spiked in the last couple of quarters and is now at 17 months. While inventory is up over the year, closings for attached product continue to decline, down 6%, thus the rise in total inventory months of supply. Our 4th quarter survey will reveal how much of the inventory builders were able to close.

As perhaps housing’s best indicator of market health and equilibrium between 1.5-2.0 months, finished vacant inventory in Denver appears tight. For the single family detached market there are now 647 finished vacant units on the ground, up 58% from a year ago as builders continue to play catch-up with strong demand the last two years. However, closings are flat, thus months of supply of finished vacant inventory has increased from 1.0 month a year ago to 1.5 months in 3Q14. Still low by historical norms and at the lower end of equilibrium, finished vacant inventory has experienced a sharp increase that should be monitored closely over the next few months. The number of finished vacant homes has more than doubled in several price bands over the year, particularly in the $400,000-$499,999 segment.

Have builders finally caught up with demand by putting enough inventory on the ground that will be absorbed by year’s end? Or, have the market increases we’ve experienced the last couple of years began to slow because of rising prices in which case builders may be left with some excess inventory? It’s hard to ignore Denver’s robust economy, strong buyer traffic and increased sales activity which all point to a consumer that is still engaged. However, the pressures on the industry in 2014 such as high land prices and rising development fees, tight lot supplies, rising construction costs, and tight labor markets will likely be factors in 2015, in which case builders should approach the new year with realistic expectations.

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. www.metrostudy.com

We have been talking for years about the lot shortages that builders are facing. Now, it’s time to talk about how many lots are being developed. Builders and developers are now playing “catch-up,” with builders buying land and lots and developers/investors paving roads and putting in infrastructure to serve the builders’ needs at a frenetic pace.

The pace of lot delivery (completion, ready for the builder) has gone up 140% in the past two years, much faster than the pace of housing production has risen (+84%). Despite this increased pace, lot development STILL lags the pace of home production nationwide.

In some markets, the lot production machine is in full gear, and has caught up with demand. This is a good sign for builders, and a vital turning point for home production in 2015 and beyond.

The TOP TEN states for lot production in 2Q14 are:

State

2nd Q. Starts

2nd Q. Lot Deliveries

Texas

19,714

18,931

Florida

12,416

10,974

California

10,050

10,219

North Carolina

4,866

3,168

Georgia

4,489

1,270

Colorado

3,985

3,276

Arizona

3,519

4,596

Maryland

2,436

2,122

Utah

2,328

2,498

Virginia

2,198

1,850

Note that lot production has caught up with new home production in California, Arizona, and Utah. Florida development is woefully far behind demand for lots, hence the skyrocketing cost of finished lots there.

Metrostudy defines “future lots” as those that are in the pipeline (some are pre-entitlement), and Florida has the deepest pipeline. Below are the top 10 states ranked by known future lots.

May 1, 2014: Metrostudy’s 1Q14 survey of Denver housing showed that the state’s strong economy and employment growth are fueling continued strength in the market, even as that growth is constraining supply at the lower end of the market. Colorado ranked among the top 10 states for employment growth in 2013, and the trend continues in 2014 as initial reports indicate that March is the 29th consecutive month for employment gains. Unemployment now sits at 6.2% compared to 6.7% nationally.

According to Metrostudy’s quarterly lot-by-lot field survey 1,753 homes were started in the 1st quarter, up 10% from 1Q13 when 1,598 homes were started. There were 6,874 annual starts through 1Q14, a 13% increase from the 6,105 annual home starts in 1Q13.

Following the strong recovery years in 2012 and 2013, growth in 2014 will slow somewhat due to price increases that will suppress demand, particularly at the lower price points. Builders also closed 1,356 units in the first quarter, a decline of 5% from the 1,431 closings in 1Q13. The ‘winter pause’ due to fitful economic news, uncertainly about mortgage rates, and lack of closeable inventory might have caused the slight dip in quarterly closings. However, annual closings in the first quarter increased 14% to 6,399 home closings compared to the 5,611 annual home closings in 1Q13, demonstrating the general health of the market over the course of the year.

“At the conclusion of 2014, we’ll look back on a year that will likely be defined as a recalibration year for buyers as purchasing power declines,” said John Covert, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Albuquerque and Denver Markets. “8% of all single family home starts in the last year were priced below $250,000 compared to 15% in 2012 and 31% in 2010. As a result, 1st time or entry level buyers will find fewer options as they are either priced out of the market or can’t find housing in the right locations, thus the need to recalibrate.”

Metrostudy expects housing starts to increase in 2014, but so too will lot deliveries in existing projects as well as several new large communities. The 4,652 lot deliveries in the past year are a 73% increase over 1Q13 annual deliveries and the most since 2007.

“While lot inventory appears to have reached its nadir, the market share of lots controlled by big builders is likely at its highest levels, which will mean increased competition for remaining lots, and ultimately higher lot prices in prime locations,” commented Covert. “When segmented by home price, lots are virtually non-existent for homes priced under $200,000 and lot availability for homes $200,000-$249,999 are falling quickly with only 10 months of inventory compared to 20 months in 1Q13.”

However, Denver’s continued economic expansion and wage increases might well offset some of the erosion in purchasing power cause by rising home prices and mortgage rates. Either way, builders should be particularly mindful of how buyers are now faced with a new buying paradigm that could reshape the housing recovery.

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. www.metrostudy.com

(Denver, CO – May 2, 2013)Sizeable increases in new home starts demonstrate not only strengthening builder and consumer confidence, but that ‘organic’ growth (job creation and population growth through in-migration) is the fuel needed to kick-start and maintain a healthy industry, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Denver’s current employment estimates indicate that employers continue to grow payrolls at a healthy pace, adding 34,500 jobs the past 12 months. The average annual growth rate is now 2.8% compared to 2.5% last March, extending the best run of job growth in Denver since 2000. “With Denver’s continued strong growth, the region still ranks among the top 10 MSA’s nationally for annual job creation, with the Natural Resources & Construction, Professional & Business Services, and Education & Health Services sectors demonstrating particularly robust growth,” said John Covert, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Albuquerque and Denver Markets. The unemployment rate for Denver in March is still at 7.2%, where it’s been pegged for the last several months. Colorado’s unemployment rate is 7.3% compared to 8.6% a year ago.

According to Metrostudy’s quarterly survey 1,596 homes were started in the first quarter, up +52% from 1Q13 when 1,050 homes were started. Builders started 6,084 homes in the previous twelve months ending in March, a +60% increase from the 3,811 annual home starts in 1Q12. “Metrostudy is forecasting a 35% increase in home starts for 2013. Not quite the 55% increase the industry had in 2012, but given tightening lot supplies and inevitable price increases, activity in the second half of the year will likely slow down, “said Covert. Builders also closed 1,425 units in the first quarter, an increase of +39% from the 1,027 closings in 1Q12. There were 5,599 annual closings in the previous twelve months, a +29% increase from the 4,364 annual closings in 1Q12.

At the end of March there were 4,437 new homes in inventory, up +12% from a year ago and up 4% from last quarter. Despite the increase, the total is still only a few hundred units above the lowest inventory count in this housing cycle. Of that total, 2,770 are single family detached units that are either under construction, finished & vacant or are decorated models. The supply of total SFD inventory ticked down from 8.4 months last quarter to 7.9 months this quarter, but is up from 7.3 months a year ago. However, with home starts up over 50%, a rise in inventory is to be expected, and with move-ins up 39% inventory levels have been kept in check. Equilibrium for total housing inventory is considered to be around 7.0 months. “Since annual starts are now outpacing closings, and both are trending up, Metrostudy expects inventory levels to stay about the same throughout the year with some seasonal fluctuations, “said Covert.

What officially began as a ‘scramble’ for lots a year ago has only intensified this year. Lots in quality submarkets are virtually all spoken for at a time when builder appetite is high and lot deliveries remain encumbered by capital flow and an industry yet to ramp up resources needed to develop lots. The number of vacant developed lots has fallen for 20 consecutive quarters since peaking at over 20,000 in 1Q08. Currently there are 11,777 VDL on the ground, down -16% from last year. Of the total, 7,704 lots have frontages of 79 feet or less and are generally for production homes. At the current absorption pace, there is a 20 month supply of ‘production’ lots in the Denver Market when equilibrium is around 18 months. For lots in active communities, supplies are tightest for homes priced below $200,000 at 5 months’ supply, down from 22 months a year ago. “All other price segments have summarily fallen in the past year. Lot supply relief appears a ways off so these numbers are expected to tighten further,” said Covert.

“The ‘uncoiled spring’ that was the housing market, has sprung to life this past year. All segments of housing are contributing to the resurgence, including a strong resale market where median prices have jumped 15% in the last year to $268,200, a recovering new home market, and healthy apartment market. With employment numbers trending in the right direction, the future of housing in Denver looks bright for the first time in years. For now, however, builders must grapple with the stark reality of cost increases associated with land, materials, fees, vendors, etc. until we finally move away from the extremes of the past decade and establish a more balanced industry that is better prepared for strong growth,” said Covert.

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. www.metrostudy.com.

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.

(Denver, CO – February 6, 2013) Denver jobs are being added at the highest clip in a decade. Home prices are up and the supply of listings is at its lowest level in over 10 years, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Denver’s current employment estimates indicate that employers continue to grow payrolls at an increasing rate, adding 40,200 jobs the past 12 months. Unemployment remains high, now pegged at 7.2% compared to 7.5% a year ago (November).” While the unemployment rate has dropped slightly over the year, the combination of population growth and the number of people who had given up looking for work and are now looking again, has kept the rate stubbornly high,” said John Covert, director of Metrostudy’s Colorado division.

According to Metrostudy’s quarterly survey 1,375 homes were started in 4Q12, up +88% from 4Q11 when 733 homes were started. Builders started 5,535 homes in 2012, a +55% increase from the 3,580 home starts in 2011. Builders closed 1,413 units in 4Q12, an increase of +30% from the 1,088 closings in 4Q11. There were 5,198 closings for 2012, an increase of +21% from the 4,304 closings in 2011. “As Metrostudy predicted would happen by the end of 2012, annual starts now outpace annual closings, a favorable condition for the industry as it begins to grow again,” said Covert.

At the end of December there were 4,275 new homes in inventory, up +9% from a year ago and down slightly from 3Q12. Despite the increase, the total is still only a few hundred units above the lowest inventory count in this housing cycle. Of that total, 2,681 are single family detached units that are either under construction, finished & vacant or are decorated models. The supply of total SFD inventory ticked down from 9.0 months last quarter to 8.5 MOS this quarter, not unexpected as move-ins typically rise prior to the end of the year Equilibrium for total housing inventory is considered to be around 7.0 MOS. “Since annual closings are trending up, Metrostudy expects the recent spike in the supply of inventory to fall back down to within equilibrium in the next two quarters,” said Covert.

“Metrostudy’s forecast of 5,499 home starts in 2012 was almost spot-on. The same factors that went into that forecast are still driving demand today including strong job growth and in-migration, declining foreclosures, lack of resale and tight new home inventory, a full rental market, and low mortgage rates. A second consecutive year of over 50% housing starts growth is not likely, especially with lot shortages in ‘A’ locations persisting throughout the year and additional price increases. Sound pricing strategies will be a key to success in 2013 as some buyers risk being priced out of the market,” said Covert.

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data collected by a staff of 650, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise on development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Metrostudy’s new study of housing in markets across the country puts hard numbers to the housing recovery, and provides a detailed look at differences in the trajectory among regions. The data (collected at the end of calendar year 2012, and newly analyzed) indicate extreme variance among markets and submarkets, with some markets’ single-family production up 90% or more versus a year ago.

Starts of detached homes rose by an impressive 46.9% from year-end 2011 to year-end 2012, and the rebound is starting a virtuous cycle, providing a much-needed boost to personal incomes, which in turn translate into still-higher demand for homes.

It is important to understand the forces that are driving construction activity higher as well as those that are restraining gains in some areas. In some markets, there are land constraints that work to the advantage of the builders who have lot positions and ongoing projects in those submarkets, keeping the number of head-on competitors low. Additionally, the builders that have lot positions in lot-constrained submarkets are able to push prices up much more easily, and they have a strong incentive to do so, because: (1) they can make more profit by selling the homes at higher prices, and, (2) they don’t want to run out of lots too quickly.

Annual Membership Meeting and Luncheon

FBC luncheon featuring John Covert with Metrostudy. John will be speaking on the state of the housing market in Boulder County and North Metro Denver.
Luncheon will be at Spice of Life Event Center, 5706 Arapahoe, Boulder, CO.
FREE to HBA members who register by November 16th. $10 after November 16th and at the door.
Non-members, $20 by November 16th, $30 after November 16th and at the door.

How to register: 1. Go to www.HBADenver.com 2. Click on Events & Education; click on the event in the calendar. 3. HBAmembers will need their HBAuser name & password to register online. If you do not have these, use the option provided at log-in to have them emailed to you. 4. Non-members use non-member option provided at log-in
For further assistance with registration
contact Heather Attardo at (303) 551- 6729 or hattardo@hbadenver.com

(Denver, CO–October 31, 2012) Denver Jobs are being added at the highest clip in a decade. Home prices are up and the supply of listings is at its lowest level in over 10 years, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Denver’s current employment estimates indicate that employers continue to grow payrolls at an increasing rate, adding 40,000 jobs the past 12 Months. The average annual growth rate is now 2.4% compared to 1.5% last August, and is now the highest rate of growth since early 2001. With Denver’s continued strong growth, the region now ranks 7th nationally for annual job creation behind New York, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle, and Phoenix. As a result, the unemployment rate for Denver is now 7.6% compared to 8.1% a year ago (August). “This is slightly below the Colorado and U.S unemployment rate which are both pegged at 7.8%,” said John Covert, director of Metrostudy’s Colorado division.

According to Metrostudy’s quarterly survey 1,647 homes were started in 2Q12, up +13% from last quarter, and up +40% from 3Q11 when 1,175 homes were started. This is the largest number of starts, in any quarter, since 3Q07 when builders started over 3,100 homes but were standing at the precipice of a long downward freefall. Builders also closed 1,389 units in 3Q12, an increase of +12% from the 1,238 closings in 3Q11. There were 4,869 annual closings for 3Q12, an increase of +14% from the 4,257 annual closings in 3Q11. “The fact that annual starts have eclipsed the number of annual closings this quarter is a unique milestone,” said Covert.

At the end of September there were 4,333 new homes in inventory, up less than 1% from a year ago and up +6% from 2Q12. This is the first annual increase in new home inventory since 3Q06. Of that total, 2,643 are single family detached units that are either under construction, finished & vacant or are decorated models (total inventory). The supply of total SFD inventory ticked up from 8.0 months last quarter to 9.0 months this quarter, not unexpected given the tight supply of inventory coupled with noticeable increases in demand. Equilibrium for total housing inventory is considered to be around 7.0 months. “Since annual closings are trending up as well, Metrostudy expects the spike in the supply of inventory to fall back down to within equilibrium in the next two quarters,” said Covert.

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data collected by a staff of 650, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise on development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

Metrostudy’s next Denver market briefing is a few weeks away. We will review the local and national economies, the resale market, and the results of our third quarter comprehensive survey of the new-home market. Additionally, we will briefly preview our new mobile platform for iPads … Metrosearch Insight. Please select the link below to register your attendance: Click ‘Here’ to register for the Denver Briefing

This is an invitation-only event. Attendees will include only current clients and invited guests from homebuilder, developer, and lender organizations. Please feel free to forward the above link to any of your associates as there is no limit to the number of people who attend from client companies. If you would like to bring a guest from another company, please contact me to discuss. If you have questions, please don’t hesitate to call me at any of the numbers below. I look forward to seeing you at the briefing.

This event will count for four hours of continuing education credit for the Colorado Real Estate Commission. An additional four hours of continuing education credit is available for the 2012 Commission Update Course following the event.