Star power: Oklahoma City’s winning formula against Denver

Denver’s Raymond Felton had five attempted field goals and a trip to the free throw line in the fourth quarter Sunday before the 11 second mark, when the game devolved into fouling and Thunder free throws. J.R. Smith had three shots, Nene had two shots and a trip to the free throw line, and the other Nuggets had fewer looks than that.

By contrast, Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook had six field goal attempts each in that same time period, and other than Eric Maynor’s two shots, no other Thunder player had more than one shot in the quarter.

That’s what happens when one team has two established stars and the other has an offense-by-committee mentality. And at least through one game, having the two stars worked out in Oklahoma City’s favor. It gives credence to the long-established belief that it takes a star or two to advance in the NBA playoffs.

In crunch time in particular, everyone knows who’s getting the shot for Oklahoma City. It could be argued that’s an advantage to the defense, which knows that denying the Thunder’s two stars cramps the offense. It’s well-documented that OKC sometimes struggles in half-court execution, especially in the fourth quarter, and that was evident in a stretch of 1-for-8 shooting in the final stanza Sunday. There will surely come a time when someone like James Harden or Serge Ibaka has to knock down a big shot, most likely off a pass from a double-teamed Durant or Westbrook. Recall that two of the biggest shots in Chicago’s title runs in the 1990s came off passes from Scottie Pippen (to John Paxson in Game 6 of the 1993 Finals) and from Michael Jordan (to Steve Kerr in Game 6 of the 1996 Finals).

But still … if you’re a fan of any team, which two players would you choose to take the bulk of your team’s fourth-quarter shots, regardless of the circumstances: Durant, Westbrook, Felton, Smith, Nene, Danilo Gallinari or Ty Lawson? Unless you’re a Nuggets fan, you probably choose Durant and Westbrook every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Not only does having the clear-cut Alpha players identified on a team make it easier to decide who’s going to take the shots, but it also undoubtedly makes it easier on the psyche of the other players on the floor who don’t get plays run for them at that point. Do you think Harden or Ibaka ever thinks, “Why not me?” when Scott Brooks draws up a play for KD? But that’s probably not the same, at least all the time, for Felton or Gallinari if George Karl draws one up for Felton, and the same for Felton if it’s drawn up for Lawson or Nene. These are proud men who are trying to carve out a niche in a still-developing team structure.

Years ago, I read a story about the NFL’s New England Patriots, famous for their consistent winning and Super Bowl titles over the last decade, that featured a scout discussing the New England roster. The scout said his team used colors to identify players of a certain caliber: red for star players and blue for very good players. The Patriots didn’t have nearly as many red players on its roster as other contending teams in the NFL. But it had a roster flush with many more blue players than anyone else had. New England, in the scout’s mind, wins games by having very good players at every position instead of a few stars pulling the weight of some below-average players.

That might be a formula for consistent winning and postseason success (until recently, anyway, for New England) in the NFL, but I’m not so sure that’s going to work, especially in the postseason, in the NBA. There are only five players on the court in a basketball game compared with 11 on the field in a football game. Two stars are going to stand out a lot more on an NBA court than two or even three would in an NFL game.

Much was made before the postseason, and in previewing this series, of the Nuggets winning with their current approach while the Knicks struggled with Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire. The Nuggets are fun to watch and they play hard, and those two things aren’t said as often about New York. But the Knicks don’t have a roster with that NFL scout’s blue players surrounding Anthony and Stoudemire. A lot of New York’s supporting cast wouldn’t even sniff playing time in Oklahoma City — or Denver, for that matter. The Thunder, on the other hand, has an abundance of those blue players surrounding KD and Westbrook.

There’s no doubt the Nuggets are good enough to win a game or two, or maybe even more, in this series with a roster full of very good players. But it’s already been proven the Thunder can win with its star players, even without a lot of scoring in support of their efforts by OKC’s own very good players. Denver just doesn’t have two players who are capable of going off like Durant and Westbrook did to carry the Nuggets to a win.

Through one game, the Thunder’s star power has proved to be a winning formula against Denver in a playoff series. My gut still tells me it will stay that way for three more wins.

andrew :@Jax Raging Bile DuctI asked Darnell about it on twitter:@DarnellMayberry Settle an argument for me. Is Ibaka better than K-Mart? and is Harden the best SG in this series(assuming afflalo plays)?@andrewmohr Tough question. Today, I’d rather have Martin b/c of his experience. But Ibaka is clearly who you’d take 1st if you’re starting@andrewmohr a team. J.R. is a better shooter. And I’d take him over Harden if that’s all I needed. But Harden is more versatile and less of@andrewmohr a head case. So when you factor it all in, I’d say Harden is the beat in the series.So that’s that! haha.

Wait...didn't you clown me for using him as a reference for a point I was trying to make about Sef being an ELITE defender? sheesh.

Sammy :@Jax Raging Bile DuctChandler is slightly better than Green, sure, but that’s not saying much. Afflalo vs. Harden is pretty close to a wash, but especially considering that Afflalo is out for at least the first two games, it’s hard to see him providing more value over the series than James.The main problem is that one of our starters, a guy that got 26 minutes a game for us this year, is worse than every other rotation regular on either team, and our three worst offensive players get the bulk of their minutes playing alongside each other.

Afflalo, I can see. But I would rather have Harden over Smith or Felton by a long shot. Smith is too mercurial. One day you can get 60% shooting, but more often then not you'll get a 30-35% shooting night.

As far as the Pistons comparison, I think the comparison falls short because of their approaches to offense. The rip hamilton screening would never happen in the nuggets system. What the pistons lacked in superstar power, they made up for it with completely defined roles and control.

Sure he did. The whole red star / blue star bit was about the theory of roster formations. He even said himself that he didn't know if the Patriot formula would work in the NBA, then he gave a reason, then he used that correlation to talk about our actual teams.

That's enough theory and hypotheticals to open up a discussion about roster formations. Not only did I talk about that, but I also talked about our teams actual rosters.

Not a single letter of any of it makes me some sort of doomsday anti-fan, simply because you don't happen to agree with it.

Next time, feel free to discuss the subject without selective reading or reducing yourself to defensive riffs.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct"The discussion is in relation to the point of the article, that red stars on your basketball team is better than having lots of blue stars."

that is NOT what the article is about. The article is arguing that our ACTUAL team, with two superstar players will win over Denver's ACTUAL team that has no superstars. And I agree. At no point did Patrick introduce hypothetical rosters.

Ibaka does have a better future. Martin is close to retirement by now.

JR is more talented than any SG on either team - it's too bad he can't be consistently good. I'd still put him ahead of Harden though, just like I'd put Demarcus Cousins ahead of other froncourt players more mature than him.

But if we had Afflalo, Smith and Felton on our team, I wouldn't have a problem with any of them getting minutes ahead of Harden.

I think the DT takes RW for granted sometimes. When Russ does out of control Russ things, it's easy to say he missed a jumper, he should have given it up to Durant. But the formula is very, very proven that you need two stars to win titles. I think it's easy to think RW should be deferential to the more proven, little better Durant, but consider it paying a 'star tax.' Russ is going to force a couple of things, but it's a necessary evil to him fully being a 2nd star for the Thunder, and not an overly aggressive role player like he was last year. You gotta let Russ be Russ, even if it isn't pretty, because the upside is getting the right championship formula.

@DarnellMayberry Settle an argument for me. Is Ibaka better than K-Mart? and is Harden the best SG in this series(assuming afflalo plays)?@andrewmohr@andrewmohr@andrewmohr Tough question. Today, I'd rather have Martin b/c of his experience. But Ibaka is clearly who you'd take 1st if you're starting a team. J.R. is a better shooter. And I'd take him over Harden if that's all I needed. But Harden is more versatile and less of a head case. So when you factor it all in, I'd say Harden is the beat in the series.

I think the bottom line is that our crunch time offense stinks, and if we did not have two stars (i.e. if Denver ran their offense like ours) then we'd be in trouble. Westbrook and Durant are talented, and can usually squeeze out just enough offense out of our terribly conceived crunch time system to pull the team through. But it's not the optimal setup. Check out how the Spurs run their offense in crunch time, or Celtics when they were good.

Why say it? Because back in page 1 when I said it the first time it was in the context that if Denver's blue star players were blue star defenders, we'd lose the series to a team with no red stars.

After taking the discussion to page 2, I reiterated that statement after stating that we have the two worst offensive players on either team as our starters. Our two red stars had to play at their highest level to win our last home game against a team full of blue stars because our role players are really poor on the offensive end of the floor. We're just fortunate all of Denver's blue stars are either offensive players or just hurt right now.

I think if Afflalo were on our team, considering his defense, that he would start over Thabo and Harden. I do like what Harden can do with the ball in his hands, and agree with you that he is much better in that aspect of the game. I like that Harden brings that perfect fit to our system. But I think we would adapt to Afflalo's game. Imagine Thabo actually taking and hitting that 3 - that's Afflalo - and I think we could use that. He would spread the floor and hound the other team's best player.

I'm not going to kill anyone who thinks Harden is better, but I just think Afflalo is better. I think Harden is the better fit for us, as you said.

I'm not trying to be contrary. The point I was making is that while we have the best two players on the floor, we also have the worst player on the floor (thabo) and if you look at their role players vs our role players, they come out ahead by quite a bit, talent-wise.

That's a dang good team that won a lot of games by a lot of points when healthy.

ChilamBilam12 :granted he doesn’t take many shots (nor would i change that in any way) but Thabo actually has one of the 5 best shooting percentages on the team (45% from the field last i checked).. i understand that he shouldn’t be a major offensive option, but he definitely has the capability of knocking them down when he has to

@andrewAfflalo has done a lot more than spot-up duty this year. He's turned into a pretty well rounded scorer. He can't create his own shot as well as Harden (though he's probably better at it than you think) and he's not the passer that James is, but he's a better defender and, at least this season and last, a better 3p shooter. That said, Harden is asked to carry a lot more of the offense than Afflalo.

@Jax Raging Bile DuctI love Afflalo. Have since last season and he's been great this year. I do think James could do approximately as well as he has in Denver's system if roles were reversed, but that's moot because that's not the situation we're in (just like it's moot, imo, to argue whether Ibaka or Martin is better in a vacuum; for purposes of arguing who provides the bigger advantage in this series it's irrelevant).

granted he doesn't take many shots (nor would i change that in any way) but Thabo actually has one of the 5 best shooting percentages on the team (45% from the field last i checked).. i understand that he shouldn't be a major offensive option, but he definitely has the capability of knocking them down when he has to

@Jax Raging Bile DuctI feel like I am arguing with a Nuggets fan. You never did name that 8th player who in your mind is better than Ibaka/Harden btw.

If you are going to use the "they are in the perfect system" as an argument against Ibaka, I think you have to acknowledge the fact that Afflalo is in the perfect situation for his talents. All he is asked to do is be a spot up shooter. Harden runs the PnR and creates his own shot.

Afflalo is assisted on 71% of his makes, Harden on 57%. Afflalo is a product of the system, Harden could do as well or better if he started for the Nuggets. (better, imo)

I like Afflalo's defense. He's the best all around defender on either team, and he's scored his points against 1st team defense all year, unlike Harden who gets the benefit of half his minutes coming against bench players.

Totally agree with you about Thabo. Thabo and Perk are the two worst offensive players on either team, and they're both our starters.

Like I said, it's fortunate that Denver doesn't have Allen or Artest on their squad or we'd be in trouble.

I also think Martin is a better on-ball defender than Serge. But Serge is as good a weak side defender as there is in this league. He's the best weak side defender in this series, and second place guy would be Nick Collison.

@Jax Raging Bile DuctChandler is slightly better than Green, sure, but that's not saying much. Afflalo vs. Harden is pretty close to a wash, but especially considering that Afflalo is out for at least the first two games, it's hard to see him providing more value over the series than James.

The main problem is that one of our starters, a guy that got 26 minutes a game for us this year, is worse than every other rotation regular on either team, and our three worst offensive players get the bulk of their minutes playing alongside each other.

I almost answered your question responding to Sammy, but I've watched Martin's whole career, and he's a good player with a higher basketball IQ to date than Serge. It's too bad Martin has had his injury history or he'd be regarded so much higher. He gets a bad rap for his attitude.

But Martin is a better on-ball defender than Serge and is more useful in an offensive system. Serge benefits from the personnel situation he's in with our team more than Martin does in Denver.

@SammyI think Harden has a higher ceiling than Afflalo, but right now, Afflalo is better.

Ibaka is a great weak side defender who can hit a jump shot. He can't create offense for himself, can't create offense for others, and has no grasp on an offensive system - even one as simplistic as ours. He's as close to the record for worst assist percentage in league history as you can get without setting it. And he's got stones for hands. He'll get better and he's made leaps this year, but he only succeeds because he's in a perfect situation for him.

There is not a metric on the planet that indicates Kenyon Martin is a better player than Serge Ibaka. You apparently don't value rebounding, shot blocking, or shooting ability from the PF position. What exactly is it that makes Martin better?

Jax Raging Bile Duct :@innocent bystanderScared isn’t the word. Denver has more total talent than we do, and talent wins games.If you were going to rank the talent on both teams, you’d start with KD and Russell, then the next 8 players would all be nuggets before you got to our next best guy.In the past 3 games we’ve played, if KD shoots around 30%, we lose all 3 of those games. Artest and Tony Allen usually pester KD into that poor of a shooting night and limit his touches, which forces Russ to do it on his own, and Russ – as good as he is – has never been accused of efficiency.

I agree to disagree. Our bench as a whole is better together. THey have more talent collectively as a team. But we have the 2 best players on the court.

@Jax Raging Bile DuctEight? I think you can make an argument that they have four players (Nene, Afflalo, Lawson, Gallo) better than Harden/Ibaka (and Afflalo, Lawson and Gallo are debatable), but it's increasingly hard for me to see the candidates after that. Martin? Felton? Chandler? None of those guys are better than Harden/Ibaka, and probably contribute less in total then Perk and Collison too.

andrew :We have the best PG in the series (Russ)Best SG (Harden)Best SF (Durant)Best PF (Ibaka)Denver has the best Center. That’s it. No way can you say Denver has more talent than us. They have more depth.

Harden is about the 3rd best SG, maybe 4th if you claim Felton as a SG. Serge is the 2nd best PF to Martin.

In my opinion, Nene, Lawson, Afflalo, and Martin are obviously better, and you could make a legitimate argument that Galinari, Felton and Chandler are just as good or better than Ibaka or Harden are today.

I think what most everyone here is alluding to is that stars trump non-stars to the point they are put in position to succeed. If you have a team running a smart offensive system, they can score well until defensive effort and talent catch up to the individual parts. If you have a team running a (generally) poor offensive system, you NEED stars for the offense to function. However, and converse to the previous theoretical, less individually talented defenders can catch up to the talent gap by exploiting the system.

That's the story of both OKC and Denver this year. OKC succeeds through high end talent, often carrying a poor offensive system and lazy defensive habits. Durant/Russ/Harden have absolutely carried the offense all year. The defense was pretty lackluster until we drastically upgraded the defensive personnel with Ibaka/Perkins. Denver is a mediocre-talent team, but runs a fantastic offense system and has smart enough defenders. If you have high defensive effort and talent across the board, you can slow them considerably, but they'll run you out of the building if not. They can really defend as a team against mediocre talents and poor systems, but they can also be blown away when the talent gap grows to large (like KD against anybody on their team).

Scared isn't the word. Denver has more total talent than we do, and talent wins games.

If you were going to rank the talent on both teams, you'd start with KD and Russell, then the next 8 players would all be nuggets before you got to our next best guy.

In the past 3 games we've played, if KD shoots around 30%, we lose all 3 of those games. Artest and Tony Allen usually pester KD into that poor of a shooting night and limit his touches, which forces Russ to do it on his own, and Russ - as good as he is - has never been accused of efficiency.

What makes Durant such an efficient scorer is an ability to draw FT's. What makes Russ so great is his ability to get to the rim and either finish or get fouled. Our star player advantages are lost if they are both jacking up contested 20 foot jumpers.

How far we go in the playoffs will depend on Russ hitting long twos in crunchtime. I don't think teams are going to allow Durant to beat them. And if we have Perk, Thabo, and Ibaka on the floor, Russ's options are pretty limited.

The only thing I can see improving our late game offense is if Harden is playing and actually getting touches.

The blue/red thing is explained in the column in the part about the Patriots. I think Harden, Ibaka, Collison and Perkins are no-doubt blue guys and Maynor, Mohammed and Sefolosha would be considered blues to lots of folks.