NASCAR Rookie Report: "Jumping" the Competition in the 600

Get the Athlon Sports Newsletter

Ranking the seven-driver crop of rookies in the Sprint Cup Series

Ranking the seven-driver crop of rookies in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series

Welcome to the Athlon Rookie Report, where each week David Smith will evaluate the deepest crop of new NASCAR Sprint Cup Series talent since 2006. The Report will include twice-monthly rankings, in-depth analysis, Q&A sessions with the drivers and more.

Today, David attempts to isolate each rookie from his team and equipment and properly rank the driving chops of each member of this year’s rookie class.

600 miles of racing at Charlotte might be a NASCAR tradition. It’s also utter ridiculousness.

A trump card to the Indianapolis 500, the race formerly known as the World 600 — as in, “What could possibly be bigger than the Indianapolis 500?” — is a four-hour slow-burn endurance race that crosses from day into night. A joke among fans is that you can watch the green flag drop, go see two movies and come back for the finish. For drivers, the length of the race is no joking matter.

It’s a beast of an event for competitors, and one historically kind to young drivers. The likes of Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Matt Kenseth scored their first wins in the Coca-Cola 600, but they had a lot of help. Their crew chiefs at the time — Ray Evernham, Jimmy Makar and Robbie Reiser, respectively — were titans in their time atop the pit box and still roam the garages to this day, commanding respect from those hoping to follow in their footsteps. Each rookie in this year’s crop has a race-caller prepared for an event such as this in which strategy can heavily dictate the outcome.

Though caution trends are futile, one might surmise that in a 400-lap race around the 1.5-mile quad-oval track, drivers tend to pace themselves a bit more than usual. It means less aggression, which could mean fewer cautions. A dearth of caution flags creates the need to pit under green-flag conditions. Green-flag pitting allows crew chiefs to enact short-pitting strategy in an attempt to pass cars without actually passing cars; using lap time falloff as a way to jump the cars in front of them for track position. It’s called jumping, which is measured by a metric called jump plus/minus.

In this week’s Rookie Report rankings, we’ll take a closer look at the position jumping capabilities of the crew chiefs working on behalf of their driver to manufacture track position:

1. Kyle Larson, No. 42(previous ranking: 1) Everything about Larson’s rookie season has been above average, but his team’s ability to pick up positions during green-flag pit cycles has been mundane. Larson lost a total of 17 spots across 15 green-flag cycles in the first 11 races. To be fair to crew chief Chris Heroy, 18 spots were due to Larson’s pit-road speeding infraction — of which he was awarded a pass-through penalty — at Las Vegas. With that stop omitted, they hold a balanced jump plus/minus of plus-1. Luckily for Heroy, they are getting track position the old-fashioned way; Larson happens to be one of the top five passers in the series with an adjusted pass efficiency of 53.3 percent.

2. Austin Dillon, No. 3(previous: 2) Dillon and crew chief Gil Martin are the best closers in the Cup Series by virtue of their 90.91 percent position retention and 36 positions gained in the final 10 percent of races, so it’s clear that Martin is making effective use of his adjustment opportunities with each pit stop; however, their green-flag pit cycle gains have been minimal. They’ve maintained their position 53.33 percent of the time and only gained one position across 15 cycles. That plus-1 jump number represents a drop for Martin, who gained 16 positions across green-flag cycles in 2013 with driver Kevin Harvick.

3. Justin Allgaier, No. 51(previous: 3) A passing slump by Tony Stewart in the beginning of the 2013 season forced then-crew chief Steve Addington to target short-pitting tactics in an attempt to gain track position. Through Stewart’s abbreviated season, the No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing team was an adept jumper, earning a plus-18 with Stewart and a plus-4 with Austin Dillon behind the wheel. This year, Addington is applying the same philosophy with rookie Justin Allgaier for HScott Motorsports. Allgaier ranks first among rookies in positions jumped (plus-11) and is tied for first in position retention during green-flag pit cycles (73.33 percent).

4. Cole Whitt, No. 26(previous: 4) Outside of a half-dozen races atop the pit box, Randy Cox is tackling the Cup Series for the first time in 2014. Swan Racing and BK Racing might not have provided him with the best, top-of-the-line equipment, but his pit strategy decisions have resembled those of a veteran race-caller. His 73.33 percent position retention across green-flag cycles ensures that Cole Whitt has just under a three-quarter chance to keep his position on long runs, and his plus-8 spots gained ranks second among crew chiefs with rookie drivers.

5. Michael Annett, No. 7(previous: 5) Bono Manion’s full-season effort for Jamie McMurray in 2013 was rather ordinary. They finished the season with a plus-2 positions gained during green-flag pit cycles. This year with Michael Annett, he has helped maintain the team’s position just under 75 percent of the time and netted the rookie four extra positions on the track. Unfortunately, his yellow-flag pit work has garnered mixed results. It came under scrutiny last week when he made a strange decision to forego tires in the Sprint Showdown, propelling Annett to the lead, after which they quickly dropped 16 positions.

6. Alex Bowman, No. 23(previous: 6) A rookie in need of track position — his average running position through 11 races, 32.69, ranks 36th in the series — is Bowman, who hasn’t been helped much by crew chief Dave Winston. The bad news is that they have lost a total of eight positions on the racetrack because of green-flag pitting, but the good news is that their retention (66.67 percent) indicates they maintain or gain positions more often than they lose them. With time, that minus-8 should become a more balanced tally.

7. Ryan Truex, No. 83(previous: 7) Truex has undergone a crew chief change, from Dale Ferguson to Doug Richert, and so far it appears to be for the better. Ferguson kept Whitt’s position 60 percent of the time, but lost him three positions during green-flag cycles. Richert’s retention is 20 percent better and his jump plus/minus is a balanced zero. There isn’t much to write home about in regards to track position attainment, but the No. 83 BK Racing program is at least heading in a positive direction.

College Football For the moment college football has forgotten about college football in a mad dash forward to appease a small group of the viewing public and more importantly to make television advertisers happy....

College Football, Fantasy As we turn our calendars over to August, the college fantasy football season is kicking into high gear. Are you prepared? Athlon has teamed up with college fantasy veterans...

College Football, Overtime Michigan State is always among the elite in college football and this year shouldn't be any different. Adam Schultz created an awesome hype video for the Spartans and if it's any...

College Football, Overtime Some people dread the weight room. Tennessee football players can't wait to go. The Volunteers made their "Night Lift" look like the 40/40 Club, completely with a DJ and neon...

College Football The Jordan Stevenson sweepstakes ended on Thursday when the former South Oak Cliff (Texas) High School running back was academically cleared to enroll at Nebraska. The recruiting win for...

College Football, Overtime Who says fans of rival teams can't make it work? Ohio State and Michigan are now bonded for life in some sort. Stephanie and Mike Stout took their wedding photos in the famous tunnel...

College Football, News The one-game suspension of four potential starters for Ohio State has slightly altered the outlook for the opener against Virginia Tech. The Buckeyes won’t need any reminder about how...

College Football Heading into the 2014 season, speculation about what life after AJ McCarron would bring for Alabama lingered around Tuscaloosa and the SEC like early-morning humidity in the South. While All-...

College Football With a 6-7 record last season, the Miami Hurricanes have more than a few things to work on during fall camp in August. Here is a look at five of the biggest and how Al Golden's team can...

College Football There have been 78 Heisman Trophies given out to 77 different players and only three times has the award gone to an ACC representative. On each of those occasions, a Florida State quarterback was...

NFL, News NFL training camps are opening up all across the nation, signaling the official return of pro football. Athlon Sports is going division by division, asking and (trying to) answering the biggest...

NFL, News The Pittsburgh Steelers are an enigma entering the 2015 NFL season. They would appear to be a team on the rise after an 11-5 regular season record and winning the toughest division in the league....

College Football Ohio State announced today that four key players would miss the Sept. 7 season opener against Virginia Tech. While it’s a big enough news story in and of itself, especially since one of the...

College Football On Thursday the Tennessee Volunteers landed running back Carlin Fils-Aime in a big head-to-head recruiting battle that included North Carolina, Miami, Auburn, and Georgia down the stretch. The...

College Football, News Ohio State will begin its national title defense without a couple of key players. According to a release from the school, defensive end Joey Bosa and receivers Corey Smith, Dontre Wilson and Jalin...

College Football, Overtime Ohio State's band is hot water following a report of a songbook making fun of Holocaust victims. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, a book by the famous band includes a...

College Football Arizona State is now part of the adidas family. adidas is now the official partner of the Pac-12 and the Sun Devils are the beneficiaries of some pretty sweet new uniforms. Their partnership...