I'm your host, Jester. I've been an EVE Online player for about six years. One of my four mains is Ripard Teg, pictured at left. Sadly, I've succumbed to "bittervet" disease, but I'm wandering the New Eden landscape (and from time to time, the MMO landscape) in search of a cure.You can follow along, if you want...

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Swing and a miss

The latest blog banter is out, and the question is... well, let's state the question first:

The common wisdom in EVE Online is that, beyond the odd high-value moon or Faction Warfare scam, there's little in low sec or NPC null sec to the attract ongoing attention of the big-dogs of null sec, with their large fleets and super cap doctrines. It's assumed that NPC space simply isn't worth the bother of controlling even if one could control it.

Is this about to change?

The shift in industrial inefficiencies from high sec to NPC low sec/null sec has begun, adding value to NPC space outside of high sec. In the recent B0TLRD accords CFC claimed two NPC null sec regions, Venal and Syndicate, as part of the CFC sphere of influence.

What is the future of low sec and NPC null sec as the economic center of gravity shifts from high sec toward null sec?

The first rule of blog banters is that shorter questions are better than longer ones. The second rule of blog banters is that philosophical questions are better than practical ones. This question is both long and practical and as a result in my opinion is one of the less interesting blog banters in quite a while. But you go to war with the army you have, et cetera et cetera. ;-) So let's deal with what we have.

That said, my answer to this one is going to be fairly short: I expect the summer's industry changes to have very little impact on NPC null-sec and no impact or a generally slightly negative impact on low-sec industry.

Low-sec first: even with the changes to jump fuel prices and use for jump freighters, it's still going to be far easier to stock low-sec markets from high-sec than try to build up a native industry in low-sec. There are, by and large, not enough people living in low-sec to support a low-sec cottage industry. These days, things are built in low-sec because they have to be (capital ships), not because the builder has any particular desire to do so.

CCP can (and might) change this dynamic slightly with lower production costs in low-sec. That said, even the increased production costs are not going to be that costly. In a game of risk averse players, industry players are some of the most risk averse of all. They're not going to move blueprints, materials, and a logistics chain into low-sec unless there's an overwhelming advantage to them to do so. I may have missed it, but I haven't seen such an overwhelming advantage.

This very same answer carries over to NPC null-sec, and for the same reasons, only magnified by about three.

Kirith gently raises the specter of null-sec blocs taking control of NPC null for the purpose of turning the regions into manufacturing power-houses. I could be wrong (and if I am, we'll know by Christmas) but I just can't see it. Yes, I continue to think that null-sec manufacturing is going to take over in some niche manufacturing areas. But I also think the bulk of those niche areas are going to be for the blocs to supply their own needs, whether consciously or unconsciously. A lot of the isotopes being used to move stuff around null is being used to bring in ships, ammo, rigs, specific modules, et cetera.

But that fuel is being used to bring them to home stations. Unless a null-sec bloc is going to live in a NPC null station for an extended period of time, there just isn't much percentage in building stuff in Syndicate only to have to ship it to Delve or Deklein. There will likely be enough native manufacturing capability for these niche markets and if there isn't, a few more stations will go up to ensure that there is.

But Kirith specifically implies that "the economic center of gravity" is going to "shift from high sec toward null sec". While this is technically true -- even a few percent would be a "shift" -- I don't see it becoming a major factor.

So... yeah. Swing and a miss on this one. I hope the next blog banter question is more philosophical!

28 comments:

Regions of *nullsec* turning into industry power-houses I can see. We're planning to do so ourselves. But, doing so relies on the vastly more efficient refines in minmatar outposts and leverages the various build & research bonuses of the other race's outposts. NPC nullsec lacks all of that, and its sole presumed advantage - lower slot costs through lack of activity - will be insignificant.

Of course, I've already written a bit elsewhere about how even a "manufacturing powerhouse" will be a drop in the EVE-wide bucket, though I'm sure the tinfoil brigade will be along before long to inform us all of how I'm wrong.

Nice to see you openly admit that null sec will gain massively in your latest caper, naturally at the hands of high sec and low sec.

Of course, I would love to know what you consider a "drop in the Eve-wide bucket". What is a drop? 10% of the current high sec industrial profits? 20%, 50%?

Naturally, you are having CCP suppress any data that shows current industrial activity so there is no baseline, and your propaganda teams can flood the forums with so many lies that eventually they will believed.

So what are you working on now? Second car payments, after the house and first car payments?

I predicted that the lobby of null would get a rollback on the JF. A de-nerf to siphons and ESS. I congratulate you on your success so far.

Mean time between failures is about 18-20 months for the machine. Sadly the direction being steered no longer tolerant to error. Because no matter how loud - the answer will still be contra. I trust you are comfortable perched on Damocles mynnna? They don't love now, and you wont be forgiven then.

Doesn't this angst about massive impending loss to highsec imply that highsec has had a massive advantage for the last... how many years?

I fear the nullsec cartels must regret how woefully ineffective they have been at forcing change on CCP; changes that would have reaped them so much profit - have taken years upon years to come to fruition.

Just how long did it take, before mynnna figured out what bri- I mean, gift - CCP Greyscale would respond to? Poor research.

Dins might rant and rave at times, but that doesn't mean that he is always wrong.

In this case, it is pretty clear that mynnna and Goonswarm will be directly benefitting from his time on the CSM, in clear violation of the EULA. Let's see if CCP actually does anything about it. I doubt it.

As for the insinuation that mynnna is also benefitting in RL, due to RMT activities... well, I won't go that far, despite the fact that I know that certain other members of Goonswarm have done so in the past. (And, no, I won't give names, so don't ask - if CCP can't catch them, tough s**t on CCP)

@mynna: Since your organisation stepped up the harassment of opponents by instituting in-game death squads to hunt those that would dare disagree with with CFC policy and goals as well as having your propaganda arm flood any serious anti-CFC thread or post (rather than the usual grrr-Goons rubbish) on blogs or forums with your spin is it any wonder that most would rather not paint a target on their forehead.

I must say on the whole your organisations terror and suppression tactics have worked reasonably well in-game and out.

I have no doubt that the sleazebag goon real lawyers, (yes HVAC's blog posts talk about them. and the failed D.C. lawyer is not one of them) have discussed filing a libel suit against me and anyone else who stands up to the goon machine.

Ironically, I watched Girl with a Dragon Tattoo last night, so your threats may actually have some muscle behind them. But if you think that will deter me from pointing out all the deception and manipulation you guys do, think again.

Actually Dinsdale, you're almost certainly safe from any such prosecution.

Any remotely competent defence lawyer could and would immediately and convincingly argue that no reasonable person could possibly take your paranoid, evidence-free rants seriously and that as a consequence no damage had been done to anyone's reputation (with the possible exception of your own).

Surely you've realised by now that the goons view you not as a gadfly or a speaker of truth to power, but as a source of entertainment.

Malcanis, what is more likely is I would argue that anyone who actually associates their real name to Eve does far more damage to their reputation than I ever could. I am sure that when potential employers google someones name, and it comes up heavily entwined with a video game like Eve, which celebrates such horrible behaviour, that employer moves on to the next candidate.

As for my entertainment value, yeah, I am powerless to stop CCP from sucking goons' collective cock. But when I see threads started and goons start slagging me BEFORE I even post in said thread, I know that they at least have a team keeping tabs on my posting.

The answer is much simpler: nullsec blocks won't take control over NPC null, because they can't.

The nullsec block doctrine is "throw thousands of subcaps and hundreds of capitals on it and capture it". You can't capture NPC stations and hellcamping them is a huge waste of time. Uncapturable space can be controlled only by small gang PvP: kill ratters/miners/industrialists and travellers, blueball large fleets.

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