It's not your father's Legislature any more

Updated 11:20 pm, Friday, January 4, 2013

AUSTIN — The face of the Legislature has undergone a dramatic transformation in the past 25 years, and the state's rapidly changing demographics virtually guarantee even more profound changes in the next quarter-century.

Anglo Democrats hardly exist anymore in the Legislature, where there will be only 10 when the new legislative session starts Jan. 8. That's compared to 83 in 1988.

Though Anglo Democratic legislators today are rare, they're not quite as scarce as the Hispanic Republican, numbering just three in the 181-member Legislature.

The disappearance of Democratic lawmakers elected from rural areas account for most of the changes. There were 56 in the 1987-88 Legislature. Today, Rep. Tracy King, a Democrat from Batesville, in Zavala County, is the only one remaining.

“Times change. Complexions change. But so do political views,” said Sen. John Whitmire, D-Houston, the only Anglo Democrat left in the Harris County legislative delegation.

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He was among 12 Anglo Houston Democrats serving in the Legislature 25 years ago.

“I served in the Legislature with people who went home and farmed all weekend, literally. Part of our problem is that Texas has become an urban state, but Texas government is still geared for an agrarian state,” Whitmire said. “As we get more urban and have more minority representation, it's going to change state policies.”

Texas remains a conservative state, with rural residents more closely aligned with the social values of the national Republican Party.

Many rural Texans who once called themselves Democrats now are Republicans — including Gov. Rick Perry, whose political career began as a rural Democrat.

Whitmire points to recent election trends that reflect Democratic gains in urban areas. Of Texas' six largest counties, five supported President Barack Obama's recent re-election, ranging from a tiny margin of one-tenth of a percentage point in Harris County to 5 percentage points in Bexar County, 15 points in Dallas County, 24 points in Travis County and 32 points in El Paso County.

The largest urban Texas county that Obama lost in was Tarrant County.

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Changing demographics

U.S. Census data testify to Texas' changing demographics. These numbers show the change in the population of children 18 and under from 1990 to 2010. Anglo children are the only group showing a decline.

Asian +145,935

Black +170,871

Latino +1,697,458

Anglo -140,667

If numbers can predict the political future, then the math is simple: Hispanics are expected to surpass Anglos as the state's largest population group between 2015 and 2020.

By 2050, Texas will be home to 12 million non-Hispanic whites and 31 million Hispanics, demographer Steve Murdock testified recently during a school finance trial.

Today, the average Anglo woman is 40 years old, compared to 25 years for the average Latina, and the fertility rate for Hispanics is 2.7 compared to 1.9 for Anglos, according to Murdock.

Hispanic children already make up a majority of the state's K-12 public school enrollment, with Anglo children at 30 percent and expected to drop until their proportion stabilizes at about 16 percent, he said.

For years, Republicans made a high priority of targeting Anglo Democrats for defeat — via election when they could win, or redistricting when they couldn't, former Texas Democratic Party executive director Harold Cook said.

“The irony is that in their efforts to limit Democrats to minority real estate through redistricting, they also separated themselves from the fastest-growing demography,” said Cook, now a political strategist. “In 20 years they may well see that they wrote their own political obituary.”

However, Democrats must address minority voters in a more holistic way or they'll start losing them to the Republicans, Cook said.

Republicans will continue to have problems appealing to Hispanics as long as they continue to push policies that Latinos perceive to be “mean-spirited,” Whitmire said, such as punishing so-called sanctuary cities, requiring voters to produce additional ID, breaking up families through deportation and cutting education funding.

Republicans must elect Hispanics “and then use them to deliver the message,” Gonzales said. “It won't be easy.”

He said the GOP should take two paths: a “head-on” obligation to promote public education, comprehensive immigration reform and a business environment that creates jobs, growth and opportunity along with a more subtle approach allowing Hispanics to offer their life experiences as a model for conservative values — family, business, church and community involvement.

Rep. Donna Howard of Austin, the only Anglo female Democrat in the 150-member Texas House, blames redistricting for wiping out most other Anglo Democrats. She also laments the overall shortage of women in the House, just 37 of 181 members.

“I believe the successful assault on women's health care is due largely to the underrepresentation of women overall, regardless of party or ethnicity,” Howard said. “The Legislature should reflect the face of Texas, including the values and needs the demographers are projecting. It isn't a matter of if but when this will happen.”

Four of the Legislature's 10 Anglo Democrats are from Austin, which is not a coincidence, said one among them — Rep. Elliott Naishtat is about to start his 22nd year in the Legislature.

“Austin is universally recognized, for good reasons, as the liberal oasis of Texas, and one of the 'weirdest' cities in the state,” Naishtat said. “As such, the voters of Austin have tended to vote for liberal, progressive Democrats. Right now, these happen to be four white Democrats.

“As the only liberal, Jewish, ex-VISTA volunteer, white member from New York City, I have always felt like a member of a minority, even when the white Democrats were in control.”

Laughing, Rep. Joe Pickett, D-El Paso, said he didn't even know he was Anglo when he was first elected 18 years ago.

“I was raised in El Paso, speak Spanish and two of my sisters lived in Mexico, and my kids are half-Spanish, so I have a different perspective,” Pickett said. “I thought I was Hispanic. Then I realized there was a bit of a difference.”

When the changing demographics catch up with Republicans, “it will be a big flip,” he said. “It will not be a slow progress. It's just going to go 'boom!'”

“Change happens so fast in politics we don't notice it. Twenty-five years ago, no one would have predicted the disappearance of white Democrats in elected office in Texas,” Bearse said. “Twenty-five years from now, the Republican Party will be a majority-minority party, or it will go the way of the Whigs.”