NBC News: Iowa Race Likely to Determine Control of Senate

The outcome of the open Senate race in Iowa will likely determine which party controls the Senate from January, NBC News has concluded following an analysis of its latest polling figures.

"If you tell us who wins Iowa come Election Night, we'll have a VERY GOOD idea of which party is going to win the Senate, even after the runoffs in December and January," NBC News said.

The GOP needs six seats to regain control of the upper chamber. The most recent NBC/ Marist polls suggest that the Republican Party is now favored to win Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Arkansas, and Louisiana.

At the same time, Democrats appear to have the upper hand in North Carolina and possibly Alaska.

The result of Iowa's race will be pivotal, NBC News says, particularly since it appears that independent Greg Orman looks poised to unseat Kansas GOP Sen. Pat Roberts. The poll found that Orman has a 10-point lead, giving him a clear advantage.

Iowa Republican Joni Ernst has a two-point lead over Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in the poll. The advantage is within the poll's margin of error but Ernst supporters appear more enthusiastic about their candidate than Braley's, according to the figures.

Specifically, more than six in 10 Ernst supporters said they are backing her because they support her candidacy, compared to 34 percent who choose her because they are against Braley. The figures are largely reversed for Braley who is seeing roughly 60 percent of his support coming from those who oppose Ernst.

Ernst's supporters are also more sure of their choice, with 62 percent saying they are firm in their decision, compared to 51 percent who feel that way about Braley.

"It's all much more about Ernst than it is about Braley," Marist pollster Lee Miringoff said, according to NBC News.

MSNBC's "Morning Joe" host Willie Geist said the poll shows that Republicans are not in line for the "wave election" which had been predicted by many pundits.