The "Middle East and Terrorism" Blog was created in order to supply information about the implication of Arab countries and Iran in terrorism all over the world. Most of the articles in the blog are the result of objective scientific research or articles written by senior journalists.

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Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Shiites vs. Sunnis: A Region at War - Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror

by Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror

BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 327

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Three important events in the fight
between Sunnis and Shiites took place this week, including the removal
of global sanctions on Iran, and Pakistan's announcement that it would
respond to any attack on Saudi Arabia. Is the world's only Muslim
nuclear nation about to intervene in the Middle East?

Three very important events took place recently in the Sunni-Shiite
battle of titans being waged across the eastern part of the Arab world,
the region between Turkey to the north, Saudi Arabia to the south, and
Iran in the east.

The most important event is the removal of sanctions from Iran. As
part of a process that began when the agreement on its nuclear program
was signed, Iran is returning to the world with an American stamp of
approval as a regional power. Iranian intellectuals understood this as
soon as the interim deal was signed between Iran and the world powers in
November 2013 and explained at conferences throughout the world that
that recognition was a clear right of the Iranians given their country's
importance, strength, history, and achievements in the region in
general and in the nuclear negotiations in particular.

Doubtless, this sense of power and international legitimacy in Iran
jumped following the final nuclear deal and the removal of sanctions
this week. This means that from now on, Iran will keep growing
economically and militarily while living up to the agreement, as least
until its economy improves significantly.

During this upcoming period, Iran will behave like a regional power,
and anyone who does not accept its status will have to deal with its
increasing power and the strength of its emissaries in the region. The
American move in making the deal, and its ramifications for Iran's
stature, serve as a kind of proof for the Sunnis of an American decision
to align with the Shiite side of the struggle.

Moreover, Sunni heads of state see it an American license, if not an
overt one, for Iran to take more aggressive action that will pose a risk
to the Sunni world, led by Saudi Arabia.

The second-most important event was the response of the Saudis. The
Kingdom executed a Shiite preacher who was imprisoned after a trial (the
sentence was handed down a year and a half ago) to send a clear message
to the Iranians, as well as to Saudi Arabia's own allies in the Sunni
world, that Riyadh would not give up on its fight against the Iranian
Shiites – certainly not when it comes to Iran's attempts to attack Saudi
Arabia's intactness by stirring up its Shiite minority.

This decision was similar in principle to an earlier Saudi decision
to employ force in Yemen and battle against the Houthis, whom the Saudis
perceived as agents of Iran.

Saudi Arabia has undoubtedly changed its behavior under its new king,
Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, and steered by his son Mohammed‎ bin
Salman, the country's 30-year-old defense minister. This means that
Saudi Arabia is prepared to take risks and pay prices that it was not
prepared to pay in the past. In this case, the price of severing
relations with Iran, a step the Saudis decided to take after Iranian
demonstrators set fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran in protest over
the execution of the Shiite preacher.

Other Sunni states followed, breaking off relations with Iran -- the
United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Sudan -- while Egypt,
which is receiving substantial economic aid from Saudi Arabia, has not.
Sudan, which had former ties to Iran, has actually cut it off entirely.

The Saudis are spearheading a Sunni challenge to the Shiite efforts
of the past 35 years, which the Sunnis have thus far been able to check.
The results are clear in Iraq and Lebanon, and are the underlying cause
of the ongoing war in Syria and the conflict in Yemen.

The third event slipped under the radar of most of the Israeli media.
This was an announcement by Pakistan made during a visit to that
country by the Saudi defense minister and heir to the throne. The host
declared that Pakistan would respond severely to any attack on Saudi
Arabia.

This declaration is of utmost importance, since this is the only
Muslim country that has nuclear weapons. It is generally accepted that
Pakistan has a special obligation to Saudi Arabia in the field of
nuclear weapons, because Saudi Arabia funded part of Pakistan's
investment in and development of a nuclear bomb.

Whether or not that is true, the Pakistani threat comprises an
interesting development. Thus far, Pakistan's nuclear weapons have been
portrayed as an element of the conflict between Pakistan and India, and
now all of a sudden they're being used in a Middle Eastern context, in a
conflict between the Shiite superpower and the entity who wants to be
perceived as its Sunni counterpart.

This is a real change in the balance of power throughout the entire
Middle East. If Pakistan moves from a one-time declaration to actual
intervention in these tussles, the regional balance of power will
change, but past experience indicates that they will be very careful
about committing themselves.

What will be the ramifications of the intensifying conflict? First,
it is quite clear that it will be much harder to deal with the war in
Syria properly. That war is not just a civil war between different
factions of Syrian society. It is a war between Shiites and Sunnis, with
Iran standing behind one side and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, and
Turkey, to a certain extent, backing the other.

Even if there were some agreement in Syria about peace talks, which
is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future, Iran and Saudi Arabia
will not take any steps toward each other, so the Syria war will
continue. The Iranians will also seek out Saudi Arabia's soft
underbelly, probably via the many Shiites in Saudi Arabia and in some
Gulf states, and the Saudis will respond with all their strength, mainly
through economic and other forms of aid to anyone in the Middle East
who opposes the Shiites.

The Saudis' success in winning Sudan's heart and removing it from
Iran's circle of influence should be noted and is very important, to
Israel as well, because Sudan was a key stop on the weapons smuggling
route from Iran to the Gaza Strip.

The very possibility that a nuclear nation will join this bitter
struggle raises serious questions and concerns about the consequences of
a possible deterioration, since it's very hard to control endless
battles colored by religion.

Pakistan moving its attention to the heart of the Middle East does
not bode well for an already complex and conflicted region. A Pakistani
change like this one, if it is not a one-time case of lip service for
its Saudi friend, could make the regional reality even more complicated
and could eventually turn out to be very influential for the region. In
the meantime, it appears to be a one-time event, not a turning point,
even if it is important in and of itself. It will be necessary to keep
constant tabs on whether Pakistan is headed toward that kind of direct
intervention.

The lesson Israel should learn from all these recent events is clear:
Israel must not be drawn into such a complex and deep-running battle as
the intra-Islamic conflict between Shiites and Sunnis, or between the
Arabs and Persians in the Gulf region. Israel must take care to
safeguard its own interests, including taking a risk if force should be
exerted, but after great consideration, without arrogance, and with
precision.

This article was originally published in Israel Hayom.BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler FamilyMaj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror is the Greg and Anne Rosshandler
Senior Fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, and
former national security advisor to the Prime Minister. He is also a
fellow at JINSA's Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy.Source: http://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/shiites-vs-sunnis-a-region-at-war/ Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.