000
FXUS63 KABR 092046
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
246 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016
The main forecast challenge in the short term is the system for
Saturday and Saturday night. The most trusted models have now started
to trend further north with the system, apparently a result of the
system getting picked up by this morning`s upper air data. Now it
appears most of the snow on Saturday during the day will be quite light
and the ABR CWA probably won`t get much more than an inch or so.
Saturday evening/night is when the left exit region of an H3 jet and
mid level pv anomaly bring some decent UVM to the northern part of
South Dakota, and then east into central Minnesota. The latest
GFS/ECMWF are now both transitioning to this prognostication. Still
thinking snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches should cover the situation
fairly well, although a bit more snow in the far east CWA is possible.
However, given the trend north in the models, later shifts will need to
keep an eye on the potential for a bit more snow than currently
forecast. The rest of the short term should feature generally dry
conditions.
As for temperatures, this weekend will be the warmest we`ll see for the
next seven days since several rounds of arctic air are expected to flow
into the region throughout next week.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016
The long term will be mostly dry, with some low pops initially as a
second cold airmass is headed into the region. Looking at the
general trend for the first half of next week, GEFS shows a blob of
cold air with the core of 850mb temperatures 2 standard deviations
below climo migrating out of Canada. This airmass will dominate
almost the entirety of the extended period. Exact numbers will depend
on the placement of surface high pressure and thus winds and mixing
but the trend should be stable as GFS/EC and GEFS plumes all
indicate this second blast of Arctic air.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016
Generally VFR conditions for all terminals today, although the
KPIR/KMBG terminals are seeing some lower VISBY due to light
snow, and they might also see some MVFR/IFR CIGS that have been
hugging the missouri river through the afternoon. MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VISBY are more likely Saturday with a system moving into the
CWA for KPIR/KMBG, though these lower CIGS/VISBY probably won`t
reach the KABR/KATY terminals till after the 18Z TAF cut off.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Connelly