Can Sen. Donnelly, one of nation's most vulnerable Democrats, prove 2012 win was no fluke?

Joe Donnelly, a Democratic U.S. senator representing Indiana, got his start in politics in the late 1980s. (August 2017)
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U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly speaks on stage before former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton delivers a speech to campaign supporters at the Douglass Park Gymnasium on May 1, 2016.(Photo: Mykal McEldowney/IndyStar)Buy Photo

“(Donnelly) caught a lucky break that allowed him to get within striking distance,” said Robert Dion, political science professor at the University of Evansville.

Now, as Donnelly kicks off his re-election campaign Sunday, intent on proving 2012 was not a fluke, he’s one of the most vulnerable senators facing the voters next year. The only Democrat elected statewide in a state that overwhelmingly backed Donald Trump last year, he’s viewed as one of Republicans’ best chances of expanding their narrow margin in the Senate. Ads by outside groups, which started months ago, have already topped more than $2.5 million.

But Donnelly had another stroke of luck when Trump, and not Hillary Clinton, became president.

“If Hillary Clinton was president of the United States, I don’t know if there would have been a path to re-election for Joe Donnelly,” said political handicapper Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections. “With President Trump, that keeps this race on the competitive map.”

The party that controls the White House typically loses seats in the midterm election. And the dysfunction of Trump’s White House has Democrats hoping that loss will be greater than usual — even though Trump won Indiana by a commanding 19 percentage points.

Still, as Donnelly did in 2012 — when he won more votes than gubernatorial candidate Mike Pence — he has to put himself in a position to benefit from any breaks.

“He is a great tactical fighter,” said former Rep. Mark Souder, a Republican. “He’s at risk — and possibly an underdog — because of the nature of the state. But he’s a really strong candidate with wide appeal and is way underestimated for his political skills. That means if Republicans aren’t careful, they’ll lose the seat.”

Donnelly is laying down his marker with his six-day, statewide tour that begins with a meeting with veterans in Indianapolis on Sunday. He’ll be holding news conferences, convening roundtable discussions on health care and other issues and touring factories and farms in more than 20 counties to kick off his 2018 campaign. And his arrival will be hard to miss. Fueling the “Hoosier Highways” tour is an Indiana-made RV emblazoned with the logo “Hard work. Common sense. Hoosier values.”

“We’re looking to show that Joe is somebody who has focused on delivering results for Hoosiers, not for any specific party or for anybody in Washington,” said campaign spokesman Will Baskin-Gerwitz.

Sen. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., is kicking of his 2018 re-election campaign with a six-day tour across Indiana in an RV.(Photo: Donnelly campaign)

Traveling around the state is not new for Donnelly, who has visited each of the state’s 92 counties every year for the past few years.

“He’s everywhere man,” said former state Rep. Christina Hale, the Democrats’ candidate for lieutenant governor last year.

Despite Donnelly’s constant travels, however, he’s not yet well known across the state.

His 2012 campaign contributed to that, said GOP strategist Cam Savage, because Donnelly ran more as an alternative to Mourdock than on his own strengths.

“That was a campaign very much designed to be under the radar,” Savage said. “The problem with running under an under-the-radar campaign, and an under-the-radar office, is the time comes when you want to be on the radar, and you may have dug yourself a hole.”

Paul Helmke, a civics professor at Indiana University who ran for the Senate in 1998, agrees that Donnelly hasn’t had a high profile, and that’s been “somewhat intentional."

“He still has to get his name out there and what he stands for,” Helmke said.

Cultivating an image as a low-key, keep-your-head-down-and-work-hard lawmaker has meant avoiding the spotlight, particularly on controversial or highly-partisan issues. Instead, the topics he’s focused on — in large part through his committee assignments — are agriculture, national defense and veterans’ issues. It’s no surprise that the first stop on his campaign tour is a VFW post.

“That’s another apple pie issue,” Dion said of Donnelly’s work on veterans’ mental health issues. “It’s not flashy, but if you mention it, people say, `By God, that’s the kind of senator we want.’ Because he hasn’t spent the last five years dropping bombs or engaging in the worst kind of partisan exchanges.”

The focus on veterans, as well as Donnelly’s emphasis on workers and jobs, can particularly help him with the blue-collar voters who flocked to Trump last year, Souder said.

“Trump seems to have an illogical emotional connection with Hoosier voters that don’t seem right now to care what he does, and Donnelly has to overcome that,” Souder said. “He knows where his weakness is, and he’s working those weaknesses because many of the blue-collar workers are veterans and they’re worried about their jobs.”

And Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC working to put the Senate in Democratic hands, recently launched television ads in Indianapolis touting Donnelly’s support for tax credits for companies that bring jobs back to the United States.

But Gonzales says it may be Republicans’ turn to get lucky in the race, and they are going to keep hammering away on the issue.

“I think Donnelly had been an elusive target for Republicans because he hadn’t made mistakes,” Gonzales said.

Donnelly has cultivated a moderate image by sometimes bucking his party on issues such as abortion, defense spending and the environment. For example, he’s sided with Republicans in opposing some Obama administration regulations affecting coal mining, power plants and agriculture. He’s championed other issues important to Indiana such as repealing a tax on medical devices, a top concern of the state’s extensive medical device manufacturing industry.

But Republicans argue there are still too many liberal holes in Donnelly’s record.

“Hoosiers deserve a United States Senator who will look out for them 100 percent of the time,” Rep. Luke Messer, R-Shelbyville, said this month when he launched his bid for the GOP nomination.

Rep. Todd Rokita, R-Indianapolis, the other top GOP candidate in the crowded primary race, struck a similar theme in his nine-city announcement tour.

“Joe Donnelly claims to be a moderate,” Rokita said. “But when it matters, Donnelly is with Washington liberals.”

Donnelly may also have to deal with the divisions in his own party. As a moderate Democrat, can he energize all wings of the party to fight for him in a midterm election when the voters who turn out typically favor Republicans more? And that election will come two years after Bernie Sanders beat Clinton — whom Donnelly backed — in Indiana’s presidential primary.

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US Senator Joe Donnelly takes off his jacket before he speaks during a press conference at Ralph's Great Divide, Wednesday, May 9, 2012, the morning after Senator Richard Lugar's historic defeat. Donnelly will face Richard Mourdock in November for the seat held by Lugar for 36 years.
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US Senator candidate Joe Donnelly, from left, former President Bill Clinton, Indiana governor candidate John Gregg and former Indiana governor, former US Senator Evan Bayh walk off stage after speaking at North Central High School during the Hoosier Common Sense rally for Indiana's Democratic candidates, Friday, October 12, 2012.
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Joe Donnelly addresses his supporters after being declared the victor as US Senator, speaking at the Democratic Party celebration at the downtown Marriott, Tuesday, November 6, 2012.
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U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly talks to President Barak OBama on the phone after it was announced Donnelly won his election race at the Indiana Democratic Party election event at the Downtown Marriott Tuesday November 6, 2012.
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Joe Donnelly, right, takes the stage to speak to supporters after Evan Bayh, left, introduced the US Senator-elect at the Democratic Party site at the downtown Marriott, Tuesday, November 6, 2012.
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U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly and wife Jill on the podium after it was announced he won his election race at the Indiana Democratic Party election event at the Downtown Marriott Tuesday November 6, 2012.
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U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly gets some advice about assembling a transmission from Main Line Group Leader Stephen Estabrook at the Allison Transmission Headquarters on Wednesday, September 3, 2014. Donnelly is out and about as part of "Donnelly Days" organized as an ongoing series of events where he works alongside Hoosiers in a variety of jobs and professions across Indiana.
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Sen. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., thanks veterans that came out for his news conference on the steps of the Indiana War Memorial on Wednesday, May 27, 2015. Donnelly spoke about bipartisan legislation he is working on to provide better mental health assistance for members of the military.
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U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., mingles before a commemoration ceremony for the Kennedy King Memorial Initiative on Saturday, April 4, 2015, at Martin Luther King Memorial Park in Indianapolis. The event marked the 47th anniversary of Sen. Robert Kennedy's speech at the park announcing the murder of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
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Former and current Indiana Senators Dick Lugar and Joe Donnelly talk before President Barack Obama speaks at Ivy Tech, Indianapolis, Friday, Feb. 6, 2015.
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Sen. Joe Donnelly speaks during the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO) along with the United Steelworkers (USW) hold a rally outside the Indiana Statehouse in protest of the Carrier job losses on April 29, 2016. Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders also spoke about the loss of American jobs.
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U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly speaks on stage before former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton delivers a speech to campaign supporters at the Douglass Park Gymnasium on May 1, 2016.
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Sanders, in fact, will be in Indianapolis on Monday for a jobs rally with Chuck Jones, the former United Steelworkers leader who represented who represented Carrier Corp. workers. Donnelly, however, will be at a union hall in Anderson on Monday, followed by stops in Muncie, Winchester and Fort Wayne.

“You love nine out of 10 of my decisions,” he told the paper. “So on the last one, you’re going to burn the house down?”

Two years ago, Donnelly’s anti-abortion views caused a rift in his own campaign. After he voted for a bill to strip Planned Parenthood of federal funding, his campaign treasurer quit in protest. (Donnelly, a few months later, switched his position after Planned Parenthood announced it would stop taking reimbursements for supplying tissue from aborted fetuses to medical researchers.)

Hale, however, said Democrats will unite around Donnelly.

“This past election has ignited the electorate like no other,” she said. “People are understanding exactly what’s at stake and people are understanding the machinations of government and how one vote matters in the Senate.”

Jennifer Duffy, who tracks Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, agrees that one of Democrats’ advantages right now is enthusiasm.

“Can that enthusiasm be sustained for the next 16 months? Last week I would have said `no.’ Now, I’m not so sure,” she said as Trump faced a political firestorm for his claims that "both sides” were at fault for the violence last weekend at a white nationalist rally in Charlottesville. “Trump is doing more to help that enthusiasm than anything else.”

Still, Duffy said, she “can’t remember a time when things have felt so fluid, or the actions of one person has made the environment so tentative and fluid.”

While Donnelly can’t count on more lucky breaks, he has the advantage of having run difficult races before. He unsuccessfully sought various elected positions before winning a House seat in 2006 in north central Indiana. Donnelly held onto that competitive district in two more elections before his unlikely Senate victory.

“If I had to use one word to describe him, it’s scrappy,” Dion said. “If he wants to get elected, he has to fight for it. And he’s done that. I think you will see that he will fight for every vote all across the state.”

Contact Maureen Groppe at mgroppe@gannett.com. Follow her on Twitter: @mgroppe.

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What Republicans and Democrats worry about most in race for Sen. Donnelly's seat

Sen. Joe Donnelly is one of the most vulnerable Democrats facing re-election next year, with national handicappers rating the race as a toss-up at this early stage. Here’s what some political strategists and pundits said when asked what Democrats and Republicans should be most concerned about:

Jennifer Duffy, senior editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report

• What Republicans should most worry about: “They should be most concerned that this primary does not turn so contentious that it’s damaging, because what they’re essentially doing is a lot of Democrats work for them.”

• What Democrats should most worry about: “They have a couple of concerns. One: defining Donnelly before Republicans do it. Two: in a midterm, going out and IDing their voters and getting them out, which has always been their challenge in midterms. Midterm election turn out just tends to favor Republicans.”

Cam Savage, GOP strategist

• What Republicans should most worry about: “The historical precedent of the president’s party in midterm elections traditionally doesn’t do as well. There have been few years when that hasn’t been the case.”

• What Democrats should most worry about: “I think they are probably worried about the Republican victories in Indiana over the last several years. There’s a great deal of Republican infrastructure.”

Former state Rep. Christina Hale, a Democrat

• What Republicans should most worry about: “If I were a Republican, I’d be most worried because Joe Donnelly has done everything right. … People just find him to be a regular Joe. And I think right now people are hungry for that kind of authenticity.”

• What Democrats should most worry about: “My biggest fear is that votes don’t turn out. I’m worried that people will forget what’s at stake next year when we go to vote. We have to remember how important these things are.”

Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan Inside Elections

• What Republicans should most worry about: “That enough voters are concerned with how the president has performed in his first two years and are looking for Democrats to be in Washington to put a check on him.”

• What Democrats should most worry about: “Democrats should be concerned that Republican voters just vote for a Republican candidate, or that Donald Trump voters just vote for a Republican for the Senate.”

Former Rep. Mark Souder, a Republican:

• What Republicans should most worry about: “Their biggest fear is that our guys are going to fight with each other too much, when their biggest fear should be, Joe Donnelly is very clever. Figure out what he’s going to do and how he’s going to respond to things and start addressing those.”

• What Democrats should most worry about: “(Donnelly) is still an underdog because of the nature of Indiana.”