Desktop: “The report of my death was an exaggeration”

In the past year I have listened to a chorus of mobile device users telling the rest of the world how everyone will soon be getting rid of their desktop computer. The rest of the world usually does a good job of not responding. Whether it’s because they are insecure about their own understanding of technology trends or because they just aren’t sure, I am certain many people aren’t speaking up who don’t feel the same way. Well, for the rest of those tech users out there, I am going to have to stand up and say, “it just ain’t so”. Mobile computing will definitely grow. But it will not replace the desktop as it is used today!

Before the iPad fanboys have a conniption, let me explain. There are some issues with the actual physics involved in humanity’s current technology that prevent the mobile processor from performing at the level of demands of the desktop. Our processors are, unfortunately, still based on electricity. This causes heat. The smaller those little wires are made, the more they heat up. At the computer capacity of the dumbed-down cell phone, this is not a problem. As long as computing demand remains low, you won’t need the increased power required to dissipate that heat, which must be done to prevent chip meltdown. I can perform my simple web browsing and emailing, posting on Facebook or even a quick game of chess with my friends. Oh, and if I want something really complex and visually mind-blowing, I can even play Angry Birds. That’s right. For the most part, the most graphically sophisticated game on a cell phone that can be played is equivalent to every game that can be found on Kongregate. Don’t you dare ask them to do dual display on even 1680 x 1050!

The reason for this low capacity cannot be physically overcome until something like completely optical computing becomes a mass-produced reality. That won’t happen within the next 15 years.

What the purely mobile users forget is that not everyone is happy with personal computing that is all done at the power level of a Flash app. My step-son is into using GIMP for very complex photo editing. If he had to wait 45 minutes for every color curve edit or perspective transform, he would surely give up on the hobby. My wife and I both heavily use LibreOffice for spreadsheet and word processing needs. We need to work with our bank accounts, investment data, news and personal correspondence quickly and use multiple programs to get it done during our precious free time. For my hobbies I run Eclipse, Matlab, SolidWorks and I use SSH — all at the same time. The power of a mobile device cannot handle these programs. It also can’t handle the input appropriately. I love my Droid Charge. But swyping an email into it is done out of necessity because I’m on the run. Not when I’m at home and I can kick back with the power of my ASUS G73S laptop. Yes, I’ve heard of the possibility that in the future everyone will hook their phone up to a Bluetooth monitor and keyboard at home. But people will never have a reason to do that until the phone can do EVERYTHING! Hasn’t anyone noticed how little demand there is for Bluetooth monitors?

I think those that predict that mobile will replace everything are simple computer users. And that’s fine. If an iPad truly does everything you need, then use it. But, your needs are not universal. There are plenty of people who will use a netbook to work on a spreadsheet on the bus because they just can’t get their work done without a real OS that can run complex programs. Personally, I think I will never buy a tablet because, as I have said before, for me it’s the worst of both worlds — it runs with the power of my phone and is basically as bulky to carry as a netbook.

And as I said, I love my Droid Charge! Sure, it’s cute that I can write a quick email from the doctor’s office waiting room. But when I need to communicate above the level of Twitter or get work done beyond a quick SSH, I need a real computer. And I am certain it will remain that way for a very long time to come.

100% my brother’ I once advised my sister who was doing well with stocks and selling things on ebay that a full size system would be better she was using a 233mhz laptop, so this was a long time ago.soon the heat, the weight,the small screen took it’s toll, while the laptop was not tossed a full system took over, people who think these tiny things rule are funny, I Ilike tablets there cool” but I don’t own one, no plans to buy one yet, those who make be’zillions on them ‘great’ I have not yet met anyone doing anything useful with them…slideshows of your vacation are well!!

It is completely true that current low-power processors (like ARM) are not capable of desktop-level processing (meaning Tegra2 and similar SOCs).

However, this segment is developing fast, and ARM processors are definitely on the verge of reaching desktop power.

An example: The new Kal-El (Tegra3) processor will have 4 cores, each running on 1.5 Ghz. The 28nm version may go up to 2Ghz and still retain mobile power consumption characteristics. The 2Ghz, 28nm version will roughly be equal to a Core 2 Duo. This will be enough to run OpenOffice and GIMP comfortably.

It is also true, that a tablet alone is handicapped when it comes to managing textual input. However, bluetooth keyboards built-into tablet holding-cases solve most of this problem.

I would say that mobile-phone/netbook/tablet hybrids will be the future of the mobile segment. (like the ASUS Transformer and the Always Innovating Touchbook).

Ok, let’s say that in a few years when these are commercially available at a reasonable price that the processing level you’ve indicated is true. (and reliability of the chips is adequate)

And “heavier” programs can be run comfortably. You don’t think that people are going to want to come home to a system that is already put together that can do the work of the mobile device 3-4 times faster on a large beautiful screen with nice custom input devices? Besides, that tech model is still going to be running up against the heat wall. There will be a few improvements but ultimately the need to handle heat will come up against the physical limitations of fan-less, mobile systems.

I acknowledged that mobile computing will grow. But the point of my post is that it is not going to take over the entire desktop market.

The fact of the existence of a mobile computing market only means that people will be doing more computing. It doesn’t mean that they will cease to do desktop computing.

I agree but one factor you miss is mobile computers that are powerful enough. The real work as is the marketed trend will be for the heavy load to end up in the cloud (whatever that means) so your local device just needs to be partially as powerful as the home desktop. And whilst out and work through teeny keyboard and screen you really don’t use the same app’s as when at home where you can place the device down near your screen and pick up a full size keyboard to use it with the screen at hand (UWB a Bluetooth spec member is good enough for this wireless).

So some step toward your entire computing being in your pocket will possibly happen but it will depend on accompanying advances even as simple as more use of the semantic web so that less processing has to be done over and details can just be grabbed from authoritative sources.

Here is more of the full picture: No matter how advanced mobile devices become, the technological advances they bring will always mean that stationary devices — with their increased power capabilities and the ability to have tons of mass storage that isn’t restricted to internet speeds — are going to be even better!

And those improvements, while they may not offer advantages to people like you who only want to grab details from authotitative sources, will mean that there are going to be computer uses who want to build their technology needs around stationary devices.

I agree with Brian that mobile computing will never completely replace stationary workstations. Stationary computing systems will always have bigger power budgets and certain computing tasks (like video editing) is not for mobile processors (for a while).

However, the ratio of stationary computers will decrease heavily since more and more people will compromise and buy a mobile system for its primary use. Only those people will buy desktops who actually need it (which is not that many nowadays).