Passing Game Thoughts: While Andy
Dalton was by no means a fantasy star, he did rank 12th among
quarterbacks in fantasy points, making him at least a serviceable
starter. He tied for seventh in touchdown passes, but threw for
only 300 yards twice all year and from Week 10 on surpassed 230
yards just once. Dalton has one of the game’s premiere wideouts
to throw to in fantasy stud A.J. Green. The second-year receiver
was fourth at his position in fantasy points, and had a nine-game
touchdown streak from Weeks 2-9 this year. The Bengals have few
other fantasy options in their receiving game, though fantasy
owners may want to take a look at Jermaine Gresham. He ranked
10th among tight ends in fantasy points this year and has a very
good match-up against a struggling Texans pass defense.

Houston had a solid start to the season defending the pass, but
fell off and wound up ranked 16th in the league against the pass
and tied for 26th in touchdown throws allowed. They surrendered
the 15th-most fantasy points in the NFL to quarterbacks, the 11th-most
to wideouts and tied for fourth-most to tight ends. The Texans
yielded at least one touchdown to wide receivers in six of their
last seven games, and in their last four games gave up five touchdowns
to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Like teammate Andy Dalton, BenJarvus Green-Ellis
was a serviceable if unspectacular fantasy option this season.
He was 19th among running backs in fantasy points, ranking 13th
at his position in rushing yards and scoring six times on the
ground. BGE ran for at least 100 yards in four of his team’s
five games from Weeks 11-15, but suffered a hamstring injury that
has left him questionable for this week’s playoff game.
Considering Green-Ellis’s injury and difficult match-up,
fantasy owners may want to look elsewhere for their running back.

The Texans were consistently good against the run all season,
and ended the year with the league’s seventh-ranked run
defense. They were ninth in YPC allowed and tied the Broncos for
fewest rushing scores permitted. Keeping runners out of the end
zone meant they were a beast for fantasy running backs to pick
up points against, and in fact no team allowed fewer fantasy points
to players at that position than Houston.

Passing Game Thoughts: The Texans
not only had problems defending the pass late in the season, they
had troubles moving it through the air as well. Matt Schaub was
20th in fantasy points among quarterbacks this year, and threw
just a single touchdown pass with three interceptions in his last
four games. They only real fantasy option in Houston’s passing
game is Andre Johnson. The Miami product went ballistic from the
midpoint of the season on, with at least 85 receiving yards in
all but two games from Week 7 on. He was even better at the end
of the season and had at least 140 yards in four of his last seven
contests. Unfortunately, Johnson had just a single touchdown catch
from Week 12 through the end of the year, which left him in eighth
at his position in fantasy points for the season.

The Bengals were excellent defending the pass during the 2012
regular season, ranking seventh in pass defense, tied for fourth
in touchdown passes ceded, and third in sacks. They allowed the
seventh-fewest fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks and
the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, but were 15th
in points allowed to tight ends. Yet fantasy owners should keep
in mind that many of those tight end points came in the season’s
first half, because Cincinnati has not allowed a player at that
position to score since Week 9.

Running Game Thoughts: Arian Foster wound up sixth in the NFL
in rushing yards for the season, but only Adrian Peterson had
more fantasy points. Foster led the league with 15 rushing scores
and added two more via reception to lead the league in touchdowns.
He struggled a bit at the end of the year in terms of yards, but
for the most part (Week 16 being the major exception) still found
a way to get into the end zone, saving fantasy owners from bad
games. Foster should continue to have success this week against
the Bengals.

Cincinnati wasn’t quite as good against the run as they
were the pass, but still had solid numbers across the board. They
ranked 12th in the NFL in rush defense, tied for 18th in rushing
scores surrendered, and were 11th in YPC allowed. The Bengals
yielded the 14th-fewest fantasy points in the league to running
backs, and they allowed just two touchdowns to backs in their
final seven games.

Passing Game Thoughts: The matchup
between Christian Ponder and the Vikings pass offense and the
Packers defense is the most crucial of this game. We know what
the Vikings rushing attack will do (be very productive), what
the Packers passing offense will do (score lots of points), and
what the Packers run game probably will not do (much of anything).
The Vikings pass offense, on the other hand, is very unpredictable,
inconsistent, and to that point, a bit scary. By most accounts,
Ponder is a less than average NFL quarterback at this point in
his career. He ranks 21st in the league in quarterback rating,
25th in passing yards, and a laughable 31st in passing yards per
attempt. In their first meeting this season (at Green Bay), Ponder
went 12 for 25 (48%) for just 119 yards with one touchdown and
two interceptions. He looked way overmatched and repeatedly missed
open receivers on his way to one of his worst days of the season.
As bad as that game was, Ponder actually had four games with fewer
yards and five games with no touchdown passes at all, making his
floor of production one of the league’s worst for starting
quarterbacks. On the flip side is last week’s game against
the Packers, where Ponder stepped up and threw for 234 yards and
three touchdowns (with no picks) in a high-pressure situation
in which the Vikings had to win to get in the playoffs. In addition
to that game, Ponder did have four games of 250-plus yards this
year, six games of two or more touchdowns, and eight games where
he did not throw an interception, showing that when he is on,
he is more than adequate as a productive signal caller.

What is strange about Ponder is that his production (or lack thereof)
does not seem to rely heavily on matchup, as he had some nice
games against strong defenses (49ers, Texans), bad games against
good defenses (Seahawks, Cardinals), good games against bad defenses
(Redskins, Colts), and bad games against bad defenses (Lions).
What does stand out is Ponder’s home and away splits, which
certainly favor his home starts. At home, Ponder has thrown (in
30 less attempts) four more touchdowns, taken six less sacks,
thrown 230 more yards, and is averaging over 1.5 more yards per
attempt than in road games. Of course this week’s game is
not only on the road, but on the road in Green Bay in January,
not a historically pleasant place for visitors to play. While
Ponder may pull something out of his hat that we were just not
expecting, the odds are certainly against him in a tough road
game, with the added pressure of this being his first postseason
game. The return of defensive back Charles Woodson and a lack
of explosion and consistency from his wide receivers (with Harvin
still out) won't help either. With the outcome of this game resting
heavily Ponder's arm, I expect him to cave under the pressure
this time around, rather than thrive on it.

Running Game Thoughts: This week is round three of Adrian Peterson
vs. the Packers. The first two rounds this season went to Peterson,
as he ran for 409 yards and two touchdowns in the first two meetings
of these division rivals. With all eyes on Peterson (as usual),
it will be interesting to see what changes the Packers make to
slow him down. There are a few scary things in this matchup for
the Packers defense, beside the fact that they are dealing with
the league’s best running back. For one, Peterson seems
to have the Packers number, as the Green Bay run defense has been
relatively good all season except when facing Peterson and the
Vikings. In their 14 other games, the Packers allowed just one
100-yard rusher, and that was Frank Gore in Week 1. Peterson has
averaged a shade over 200 yards per game against Green Bay, making
those contests two of his three highest yardage games of the season.
Second, the Packers (and the rest of the league) know without
a doubt that the Vikings offense revolves around Peterson, and
they still could not stop him in either game, but especially in
a critical game last week that could have given the Packers an
important first-round bye.

Finally, the Vikings showed in this last game that if the Packers
sell out to stop the run, the passing game can hurt them, with
Ponder (16-28, 3 TDs, 0 INT) making some critical throws late
when the box was stacked to stop the run. If Ponder is on again
this week, and the Packers are forced to divert some attention
to the pass game, Peterson may come close to hitting the 200-yard
mark again. On the bright side for the Packers defense, Peterson
is coming off a career-high 34 carries and has one less day of
rest this week, with the game being on Saturday. In addition,
the game is in Green Bay, which is notorious for being one of
the toughest places to play in January. What this all comes down
to is the play of Christian Ponder. Peterson is going to get his
yards, and it will not matter all that much what the Packers do
to stop him; he is that good, and that hot right now. If Ponder
can’t keep the defense honest, Peterson will have a good
(not great) game. But if Ponder can make some nice throws early
and show the defense he is on his game, expect Peterson to have
another huge game against this Packers defense.

Passing Game Thoughts: A scary thought
for the Vikings defense: in two games this year against Minnesota,
Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 651 yards and five touchdowns while
completing 73 percent of his passes. A Scarier thought: in neither
game did Rodgers have his full complement of receivers as he is
expected to this weekend. Every major receiver on the Packers
roster (Jennings, Nelson, Cobb, Finley, and Jones) has missed
time this season with a variety of injuries. Not since Week 1
has Rodgers had a full arsenal at his disposal for a full four
quarters. For the Packers, this is obviously a great thing, not
only for depth purposes and keeping fresh legs, but also because
Rodgers is one of the very best at finding the mismatch and getting
all his weapons involved rather than just honing in on one or
two guys. For a Vikings defense that ranks among the worst 12
teams in passing yards allowed, opposing quarterback rating allowed,
touchdown passes allowed, completion percentage allowed, and least
amount of passes picked off, it could be a very long day, as Rodgers
is sure to throw 30 or more times at home.

The news may be even worse, however, as cornerback Antoine Winfield,
perhaps the Vikings best defensive back this year, is questionable
after he aggravated his broken hand in the second quarter last
week. While the Vikings do get to the quarterback often (5th in
sacks—7 in 2 games vs. Rodgers in 2012), they will certainly
need to keep the pressure up all game long and cover in the secondary
better, because they do not take the ball away often (22 times,
10th worst). With perhaps the deepest and most talented stable
of receivers at his disposal this week, Rodgers should have little
trouble picking apart this defense. And unless the weather conditions
are extreme, the Vikings get a couple turnovers, or Rodgers plays
one of his worst games ever, I expect this phase of the game to
be totally dominated by the Packers.

Running Game Thoughts: As inconsistent and talent-starved as the
Vikings passing game is right now, the Packers running attack
may actually be the weakest offensive unit in this game. They
finished the regular season 20th in rushing yards, and even worse
in yards per carry and rushing touchdowns. And the Packers get
a lot of their rushing yardage in garbage time after victory is
fairly secure. While below-average run blocking may get some of
the blame, the talent and health in the Packers backfield is also
well below average, with perhaps their most talented running back,
Cedric Benson (an average talent anyway), put on IR several weeks
ago. In his place the Packers have used a committee of Alex Green,
James Starks, Ryan Grant, and most recently DuJuan Harris, who
seems to have the “hot hand” and will therefore probably
get the most touches this weekend.

The Vikings run defense has been quite good, giving up the 11th
fewest yards on the ground while being stingy around the goal
line (10 rush TDs allowed; 8th best). In their two matchups against
the Vikings this year, the Packers had two very different outcomes,
racking up 152 yards on the ground in the first game and just
72 in the second. In that first game the Packers used a combination
of five different ball carriers and had a big lead in the fourth
quarter, while in the second game they used just two ball carriers
and the game was extremely close throughout. I do not expect this
game to be a blow out, and I have a hard time believing this unit
will be given many chances to win (or blow) this game, considering
that the overwhelming majority of offensive talent is on the passing
side. While the Packers always run the ball just enough to keep
the defense honest, I expect an even heavier dose of the passing
game this week; the Packers receivers are healthy, the Vikings
defense is more vulnerable through the air, and the consistency
of the Green Bay backfield is a big weakness. The Packers will
consider anything they get from this unit a big bonus, but they
will likely have little significance on the outcome of this game.

Passing Game Thoughts: One of three
rookie quarterbacks performing on Wild-Card Weekend, Andrew Luck
will look to continue where he left off in the regular season.
After a solid Week 17 game in which he threw two touchdowns in
a victory over the Texans, the top overall pick of the 2012 draft
finished as the ninth-ranked fantasy QB in standard scoring leagues.
Although he has thrown for an average of only 195 yards per game
over his last four, Luck has done a good job of avoiding turnovers
over that span, which has allowed him to stay on pace while getting
his team three much-needed wins. His favorite target, Reggie Wayne,
has been a consistent producer in PPR leagues, but it has been
T.Y. Hilton who has broken out over the second half of the season,
including a four-catch, 114-yard performance with a touchdown
in Week 17. Neither Dwayne Allen nor Coby Fleener has been particularly
productive in recent weeks, so look for Luck to continue to target
Wayne and Hilton, along with Donnie Avery, this week.

In his first playoff game, Luck will head to Baltimore to go
up against Ed Reed and the Ravens secondary. The Ravens have had
moments this season where they struggled against the pass, but
their end-of-year numbers were very good, as they finished as
the seventh-ranked defense against opposing quarterbacks. Since
Week 11, the Ravens have allowed only one passer (Robert Griffin
III) to throw for more than 270 yards or two touchdowns. But it’s
also worth mentioning that they have forced just two interceptions
through their final seven games. In addition, they’ve allowed
five touchdown passes to opposing wide receivers through their
past four games. The numbers don’t necessarily point to
a big day for the Colts' rookie quarterback, but rest assured
that Luck will have his opportunities. Indianapolis will win or
lose this game on the shoulders of Andrew Luck.

Running Game Thoughts: He isn’t a particularly sexy name,
but it’s hard to deny that Colts running back Vick Ballard
was a fantasy season-saver for many owners who lost running backs
in the second half of the year. Since Week 13, Ballard has averaged
10.2 fantasy points per game (standard scoring), which has included
two games of over 90 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Although
he has not been very active in the passing game, he has received
at least 18 carries in every game since Donald Brown was hurt
in Week 13, which has made Ballard one of the most consistent
backs in the league over that span. The only concern going into
the playoffs is that Delone Carter could be back this week and
has a history of goal-line sniping from both Ballard and Brown.
Still, we expect Ballard to get at least 90 percent of his team’s
carries, which typically translates into some decent fantasy production.

The Baltimore defense has long been one of the stingiest in the
league, but 2012 was certainly a drop-off from what they are normally
capable of, especially when it comes to defending the run. This
year, the Ravens have allowed more than 140 yards rushing to an
opposing team on five occasions, including twice over their final
four weeks. Despite holding BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the Bengals
running game in check last week, Baltimore still allowed an average
of nearly 15 points per game to RBs over the final five weeks
of the regular season. If Ballard gets the 15-plus carries that
we expect him to, he should have a solid day on Wild-Card Weekend.
But don’t expect a huge game. Make no mistake about it,
this is the Andrew Luck show. Ballard and the running game are
just along for the ride.

Passing
Game Thoughts: After jumping out to one of the best records
in the league to start the season, the Ravens struggled to wrap
it up in convincing fashion, losing four of their final five games.
Of course, Week 17 didn’t matter for them and their playoff
seeding, so the loss to the Bengals was irrelevant. But the pressure
is certainly still on quarterback Joe Flacco and his team as they
head into their fifth consecutive playoff appearance with the
former first-round pick under center. Flacco himself has actually
been fairly good over his past three (full) games, throwing seven
touchdowns to only three interceptions despite two losses. It’s
been the up-and-down performances he’s had throughout the
year that have critics questioning whether it’s time to
move on from the guy who proclaimed himself an elite quarterback
before the season started. If he wants to keep making those claims,
Flacco is going to need more games like he’s had in recent
weeks, while Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta step
it up for the playoffs.

Unfortunately for Flacco, he’s going up against a red-hot
Colts defense that has allowed just five passing touchdowns over
their past six games, including zero in their final two. They’ve
also forced a total of eight interceptions during that stretch,
successfully holding three of six opposing QBs to 10 or fewer
fantasy points on the day. Indianapolis seems to be peaking at
the right time, and with the Ravens in a major rut, this could
be the perfect storm for a wild-card upset. Nevertheless, the
Ravens have never failed to make it out of the first week of the
playoffs with Flacco at quarterback.

Running Game Thoughts: One of the most consistent players in
fantasy football this season has been Ray Rice, who finished as
the sixth-ranked RB in standard scoring leagues. For those in
PPR leagues, Rice was even better, as his 61 receptions placed
him second among all backs, behind only Darren Sproles. If you
take away his dreadful Week 15 performance in a blowout loss to
the Broncos and his Week 17, where he barely touched the ball
in an irrelevant game, Rice has been a solid top five fantasy
back all season. Although backup Bernard Pierce has seen a sharp
increase in carries over the past two games, don’t look
for that to continue. Week 16 was a blowout win for the Ravens,
so they put in their backups fairly early, while Week 17 didn’t
matter for playoff seeding. Expect Rice to return to his full
workload for the playoffs, and with fresh legs at that.

Rice will be one of the top options this week as he goes up against
the Indianapolis Colts, the 26th-ranked fantasy defense against
opposing RBs. The Colts have allowed 11 or more fantasy points
to RBs in six of their past seven games and have been victim to
three of the best fantasy days by opposing running games this
year. The most recent embarrassment came in Week 16 when they
allowed Jamaal Charles, Peyton Hillis and the 2-14 Chiefs to rush
for 341 yards against them. It hasn’t always been against
great running games, either. The Jets beat them up for 246 yards
and three scores on the ground earlier this year, and the Bears
rushed for 122 yards and three touchdowns of their own back in
Week 1. The Colts are definitely beatable on the ground, and with
Rice essentially having a game off in Week 17, he should be rested
and ready to run all over them.

Passing Game Thoughts: Three rookie
quarterbacks will be starting in this year’s playoffs, something
that was once considered borderline impossible. Russell Wilson
has been somewhat lost in the shadows of Andrew Luck and Robert
Griffin III, but his rookie season has been every bit as good...
and of course much more improbable. Wilson, thought by many scouts
to be undersized, threw for more touchdown passes (26) than either
Luck (23) or Griffin (20), and like his fellow rookies is also
able to gain yards with his legs (489 rush yds, 4 TDs). Wilson
isn’t asked to throw the ball often in the Seahawks run-oriented
attack, but he has been able to move the ball through the air
when needed and already throws one of the best deep balls in the
league. Sidney Rice is the Hawks' top option at wide receiver
and is coming off his second best season as a professional, with
748 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Rice has had issues
staying healthy for most of his career and this season has been
no different; he was in a walking boot two weeks ago but will
be ready to play on Sunday. Golden Tate finally made the leap
from college standout to adequate professional wideout and made
some big plays for the Seahawks this season. The duo could have
their way against what has been a poor Redskins secondary.

Washington has allowed the second most passing touchdowns and
third most yards this season. After losing Brian Orakpo and Adam
Carriker to season-ending injuries early in the season, they have
had issues generating a consistent pass rush, thus exposing the
over-rated DeAngelo Hall and fellow cornerback Josh Wilson in
coverage.

Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch was easily Seattle's most
valuable offensive player this season, as the offense ran through
him on the way to nearly 1,600 rushing yards and double-digit
touchdown totals. Lynch averaged a very stout 5.0 yards per carry
behind a young O-line that was bolstered by some high draft picks.
Behind Lynch, the Seahawks have rookie runner Robert Turbin, who
possesses a similar style and body type to Lynch but adds a little
more speed and pass-catching ability. The Hawks feature one of
the more conservative offenses in the league, and Lynch is built
to dish out as much punishment as he absorbs. It goes without
saying that the matchup of strength on strength (Washington being
the fifth-ranked run defense) will go a long way toward determining
the winner of this contest.

Passing
Game Thoughts: Robert Griffin III looked like a grizzled
veteran last week while Tony Romo made “rookie” mistakes
in a matchup that determined the winner of the NFC East. Griffin’s
knee injury—and the brace that he wore because of it—slowed
him down a little when he took off to run, but the rookie still
managed to gain over 60 yards on the ground. Pierre Garcon missed
a large chunk of the season due to a foot injury but is clearly
the top option in the passing game when healthy. Garcon has performed
at a top level since returning from the injury, and with his size
and speed, he should be able to handle the physical defensive
backs of Seattle as well as anyone. Expectations should be lowered,
however, as Richard Sherman has had an All-Pro type season and
Brandon Brower will be back from suspension. When Griffin is not
looking Garcon’s way, the ball gets spread around between
a diverse group of receivers in Aldrick Robinson, Santana Moss
and Leonard Hankerson, and occasionally to slow-footed tight end
Logan Paulsen.

With their dynamic duo at cornerback, the Seahawks have kept most
passing attacks at bay. The pass defense has played better statistically
at home than away, but on the season the team has limited its
opposition to only 203.1 yards per game through the air and the
league's second lowest total of 15 passing touchdowns.

Running Game Thoughts: Alfred Morris capped off a remarkable rookie
season by thrashing the depleted middle of the Dallas defense
for 200 yards, breaking Clinton Portis’ team record of 1,516
yards in the process. Morris finished the season with 1,613 rushing
yards and 13 touchdowns. He has the ability to plant and turn
up field, which works well in the Shanahan zone blocking scheme,
and he’s one of the more powerful backs in the league after
contact. Facing a top pass defense, the Shanahans will surely
want to rely on the running game to soften up the Seattle defense.
The Seahawks are the 10th-ranked run defense in the league, so
opponents have to pick their poison when deciding how to attack
the team. Linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright are both quick
to the ball and sure tacklers, and the team has kept opposing
offenses to only 103.1 yards per game and 8 touchdowns on the
ground.