All posts tagged eurosceptic

There are those who dismiss UKIP as a joke, although the current Tory high command has never seen the funny side. In the long run-in to the last general election, George Osborne (nominal head of the Tory campaign) was particularly aware of how dangerous a flare up in support for the U.K. Independence Party could be to the Tories’ chances.

It is not that UKIP stands a hope in hell of winning a first past the post seat (for now). That’s not the point. At issue is the way in which the anti-EU party denies the Tories seats they might otherwise expect to take. If just a few thousands voters opt for UKIP over the Tories it can mean that Labour or the Lib Dems triumph in a particular seat instead.

Estimates vary on how many seats the Tories failed to win at the last election because of this phenomenon. Not every UKIP voter is a lapsed Tory, and it cannot be presumed that every single such vote would otherwise have been cast for the Conservatives. But it’s a fair assumption, considering UKIP’s policy program, that a good number are disillusioned Conservatives.

For Presidents Sarkozy and Merkel this is a great victory. Despite much notional public opposition to Lisbon, or what began as the European constitution, they have strong-armed it into existence and their notion of a stronger EU becomes a reality.

In the lead up to this moment it looked as though the consequences in Britain might be explosive. But so far it’s not working out that way. David Cameron is under pressure, but not very much beyond various newspaper articles saying he is under pressure. Since leading Tory blog Conservative Home revealed on Sunday that the Tory leader is to ditch his pledge to hold a referendum, the reaction has been very muted.

Cameron will seek to explain himself by the end of the week, and will claim that as the treaty will be enshrined in European law by the time he might enter No. 10 there’s no point holding a referendum.

A handful of Euroskeptic Tory MPs have made ostensibly outraged statements, but I’ve yet to hear from one with much fire in his or her belly. With a general election so close the Euroskeptic flame in the Tory party seems to have gone out.

There is some talk of the Tories attempting to repatriate various powers if they gain power, but it is hard to see it amounting to much. No, one can sense the Tory tribe – or rather its representatives at Westminster – giving up and opting to play the game in Brussels instead.

Viewed alongside what is happening in banking this week it is telling. It is the EU and not the U.K. government that is forcing through what has been termed the break-up of U.K. banking, although the reality is that RBS is being hammered and the Gordon Brown-created Lloyds gets off the hook.

But consider the two developments side by side. There is a Tory retreat on Lisbon, and the acceptance by the party leadership of what they clearly consider to be new realities, just as an activist, more powerful EU comes to the fore.

This would appear to be the new settlement. A stronger European Union; an EU commission increasingly prepared to assert itself on matters such as banking competition and regulation; a role for national government in horse-trading, as the U.K. did on behalf of Lloyds; and the complete marginalising of those who are concerned about the implications.

The defeat of British Euroskepticism reminds me quite a bit of what happened to Ulster Unionism around the turn of the century. One minute it seemed to be winning the arguments. It was strong, then the wind changed and it wasn’t – in any way that we had previously understood it – there any more. Its former adherents couldn’t quite see the point of carrying on as they had previously done and within months had “adjusted to reality”. Quickly, they were prepared to adopt positions they would have previously though unthinkable.

This week it became apparent that something similar is happening to Euroskepticism.