Zogby: Marriage Gap Spells Trouble for Obama

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s strong support among married voters and President Barack Obama’s dwindling support among single women put the president’s re-election effort in real trouble, says John Zogby, founder of the Zogby Poll.

In 2008, GOP candidate John McCain beat Obama among married voters 56 percent to 44 percent, Zogby writes in Forbes. But Obama counteracted that loss with a 65 percent to 35 percent victory among single voters.

This time around, polls show Romney with a 50 to 37 percent lead among married voters — around the same as McCain’s winning margin. But Obama’s lead among single voters has shrunk to 18 percentage points (52-34 percent) from his massive 30 point advantage in 2008.

These numbers are important, Zogby writes. “What doesn’t receive enough attention is the . . . dramatic “marriage gap” — how married voters and single voters see their world so differently.”

And obviously the trend isn’t favorable for Obama. “This is the ‘marriage gap,’ and right now it is pretty clear why Obama is not performing well.”

Breaking it down by men and women, in 2008, McCain won among married men 58 to 42 percent. This time around Romney’s lead is similar – 51 to 33 percent. Among single men, Obama lead McCain 63 to 37 percent. Obama’s lead is similar now – 56 to 29 percent.

As for females, McCain won among married women 53 to 47 percent. Romney has increased that advantage, leading 50 to 40 percent. What helped Obama most against McCain was his 66 to 34 percent victory among single women. But that lead has shrunk sharply in 2012, registering 50 to 29 percent.

“Even worse for Obama, at this point in time, is that 21 percent of single women are undecided,” Zogby writes. “This is a strong suggestion that they may not even vote.”