Tuesday, April 7, 2015

March 2015 Iraq Reaches Another Record High In Oil Exports, Still Not Enough To Meet Budget

In March 2015 Iraq exported the most oil since 2003. Bloomberg
said it was the most in 35 years. A slight uptick in prices also meant that the
country earned the most so far this year. Unfortunately those amounts were
still not meeting the marks set in the 2015 budget. March was another hint at
the potential the Iraqi oil industry has, but also the dire economic situation
the country is in.

Iraq exported
an average of 2.98 million barrels a day in oil last month. That was up from
February’s 2.597 million barrels. March’s figure surpassed the previous
post-2003 high of 2.941 million barrels from December 2014. Good weather was
noted as the cause for the increase, which allowed for an average of 2.71
million barrels to be shipped out of Basra. In previous months poor conditions
in southern Iraq created choppy waters that prevented oil tankers from docking
there. In comparison, the petroleum flow to Turkey declined from 304,000
barrels in February to 268,000 in March. Under the 2015 budget agreement
Kurdistan is to export an average of 550,000 barrels a day. It has not reached
that amount so far. Iraq Oil Report noted that because it has mounting debts,
the Kurds have been carrying out independent exports to earn money to pay down
what they owe. The Kurdistan Regional Government said that it would up its
exports later on so that by the end of 2015 it will meet its quota. Basra and
Iraq’s overall exports were also below the budget quotas of 2.75 million and
3.3 million barrels respectively.

Iraq Oil Exports
& Revenues 2014-15

Month

Avg.

Exports

Avg. Price

Per Barrel

Earnings

Jan. 14

2.228

$102.37

$7.074

Feb

2.799

$102.05

$8.001

Mar

2.396

$101.03

$7.507

Apr

2.509

$100.69

$7.582

May

2.582

$100.69

$8.077

Jun

2.423

$102.96

$7.470

Jul

2.442

$102.27

$7.742

Aug

2.375

$97.44

$7.172

Sep

2.542

$90.76

$6.916

Oct

2.432

$81.12

$6.120

Nov

2.51

$70.40

$5.25

Dec

2.941

$56.59

$5.161

2014 Avg.

2.51

$92.39

$7.013

Jan

2.535

$41.45

$3.258

Feb

2.597

$47.43

$3.449

Mar

2.98

$48.24

$4.46

In March Iraq’s crude sold for an average price of $48.24
per barrel. That was the highest amount so far this year. That brought in $4.46
billion up from February’s $3.449 billion. That was still 36% lower than the
2014 average of $7.013 billion. The 2015 budget calls for $56 per barrel
however, which means that Baghdad will still be struggling with meeting all of
its costs.

March’s exports show what Iraq can do. It has the potential
to reach roughly 3.3 million barrels a day. The problem as ever is that weather,
maintenance work, political disputes and decisions have always negatively
affected oil output and caused constant fluctuations. The other issue is that
oil prices remain low, and increases remain incremental. If Iraq were to reach
$56 per barrel it would probably be months from now. Since the previous
administration of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki spent most of Iraq’s reserves
the current government is largely living month to month off of its oil
earnings. That puts all the emphasis upon exporting as much as possible.
March’s news was welcome, but sustaining that level and then increasing it will
be the real challenge.

IRAQ HISTORY TIMELINE

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com