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TC's 2013 Mock Offseason

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If you haven't been around long, then you probably don't know... I try to do one of these "offseason plans" at the end of each season. I usually do a mock free agency along with a mock draft based on the assumption that I get the guys I want in free agency.

A little about my philosophy: In free agency, I want younger talent. I'm looking for guys who are coming off their rookie contract or looking for their 3rd contract at the most... anyone older than 28 has to be a special talent with proven longevity, a good locker room presence, and willing to be a mentor.

In the draft, I use the first 2-4 rounds as an extension of free agency. Any holes I haven't plugged in free agency, I try to address in the first 3 rounds of the draft. After the 3rd round, I'm usually looking for the best player on the board... someone with raw ability who can be groomed to be a starter in the future.

So, let's get started.

The Chiefs have hired offense-minded Andy Reid as their new head coach. John Dorsey is their new General Manager and they've tagged Bob Sutton as their next DC. What we know from this group is that Reid likes an offense built around the pass and enjoys having mobile QBs. We know the Chiefs have a desperate need at the QB position and the #1 pick in the draft.

The scary hire was Bob Sutton. The Chiefs have spent a TON of resources building on the defensive side of the ball. Now, they've hired an offensive HC and a DC who didn't do too well as the DC for the Jets under Mangini. His schemes are bland, no blitzes, poorly designed, and never ranked higher than 16th overall. The Chiefs defense is a unit without a direction and being that Sutton has experience in the Tampa 2 4-3, the 2 gap 3-4, and now the 1 gap 3-4, he seems to be a Defensive Coordinator without a direction as well. This all leads me to believe there won't be too much attention given to the defensive side of the ball.

I COULD be wrong however because Andy Reid has a history of taking CBs and pass-rushing DEs in free agency and the draft. This could be a good thing considering Tyson Jackson is scheduled to make $14m in 2013 and is a prime target to be cut. The Chiefs also have a need at CB depth as well as at Safety. The Chiefs will also need at least one ILB and may also need to bring in another OLB depending on which defensive scheme they settle on. Glenn Dorsey is also scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent.

On the flip side, outside of the QB position, the Chiefs will also be looking at WRs with a decision needing to be made on Dwayne Bowe who's scheduled to be an UFA, evaluations needed on Breaston, Baldwin, McCluster, and the rest of the corp in order to effectively address the situation. There's also a decision that needs to be made in regards to Branden Albert who is scheduled to be an UFA as well. The offensive line has substantial depth, but letting Albert walk may require replacing him with a free agent or with the #1 overall pick. The loss of Ryan Lilja shouldn't do much to hurt the O-line, but the next man up needs to be backed up. The offensive line has always been a priority for Andy Reid and this year should be no different.

So, let's dive into the free agent pool. Top priority: QB
Not too many options here. With the Chiefs perhaps bringing in Sporano as the O-line coach, one has to wonder if Matt Moore gets a chance to come in and compete. Assuming Flacco doesn't hit the free agent market after taking his team to the AFC Championship (so far), the FA talent pool is MUCH shallower than the extremely shallow QB draft class.

Offensive Line: The Sporano connection rears its head again. The Chiefs have concerns about Branden Albert's back and what they can expect from him on a long-term deal. Ryan Clady will be the biggest name scheduled to be an UFA, but there's no way Manning allows one of the best pass protectors in the game to walk. The next big name on the list of UFAs is none other than former top pick by the Dolphins, Jake Long. Long also has injury concerns but may be enticed to come play in KC. Andy Levitre is the top OG scheduled to hit the free agent market. Contract talks have gone nowhere in the past between he and the Bills and may get the chance to hit the open market.

WRs: Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe, and Mike Wallace headline the WR crop this season. With the new offense being pass-heavy, I just don't see Reid allowing Bowe to walk. Bowe will be extended and Dorsey will reel in Greg Jennings. With Baldwin and Breaston filling out #3 and #4, the Chiefs will boast one of the best WR corps in the league and will provide the new QB plenty of weapons with which to destroy his opponent.

TEs: Jared Cook is one of, if not THE most athletic TEs in the league. He has almost ZERO interest in returning to Tennessee and with the new offense centered around the pass in KC, Cook could see this team as a very big opportunity for him to finally break out.

DL: The Chiefs DL will take a hit this year. Jackson will probably not be here. There's a good chance Dorsey won't have much interest in returning. The defensive side of the ball is going to be the hardest for us to fill out considering that I don't think the Chiefs staff has any idea what defense they want to run yet. I'm going to go out on a limb (where I'm sure I'll be all by myself) and say the Chiefs are going to run a 1-gap 3-4. I realize this is a defense Reid has never run. However, I think this is the defense that the Chiefs are currently best-suited for with Sutton seeing the success Ryan had with it in NY. If the Chiefs run this defense, they have Hali and Houston at DE and Poe inside with DJ at LB. That means they need 3 LBs to fill out the defense. So, there isn't too much need along the DL except for random depth which could be filled by the guys currently on the roster, with late picks in the draft, or free agents after the draft. This defense is the same ran in New York with the Giants AND Jets. Osi Umenyiora is a top pass rushing DE that may hit the FA market. He is 6'3 255 and runs a 4.7 40. Hali is 6'3 270 with a 4.7 40 and Houston is 6'3 258 with a 4.6 40. These guys can handle the position.

LBs: Anthony Spencer, Phillip Wheeler, Shaun Phillips, and Manny Lawson are the top names on the LB FA market. The Cowboys franchised Spencer last season and Phillips is 31. If they can get one of these guys, I think they'll be in good shape.

CBs: Chris Houston, Aqib Talib, Leodis McKelvin, Sean Smith, and Dominique Rogers-Cromartie are the top names of the CB FA class. Chris Houston would be my first choice. Talib will probably go back to NE after they win the Super Bowl. I could see this staff going after Rogers-Cromartie from Philly or maybe Sam Shields from Green Bay even though he'll be a RFA.

S: The Chiefs need a safety who's reliable to put next to Berry in the defensive backfield. Top names on the market are Jairus Byrd, Dashon Goldson, Kenny Phillips, William Moore, Pat Chung, and Loius Delmas. Reid isn't known for spending assets on safeties, so I wouldn't expect much from him at this position. Byrd would be a nice addition, but he'll cost a pretty penny.

The Chiefs replace Branden Albert with a less expensive upgrade in Luke Joekel. They get better value with this pick than if they had decided to take a QB #1 overall. Joekel fits into a line that boasts Jon Asamoah, Rodney Hudson, Andy Levitre, and Eric Winston with depth provided by in Stephenson and Allen.

2nd Round
ILB Alec Ogletree Georgia

Ogletree would look GREAT next to DJ inside. Ogletree is a DJ clone. Great sideline to sideline defender with elite speed. He may not be available here, but if he gets passed the Bengals, I think he'll slide. This pick helps with the LB overhaul done by the organization because of their shift from the 2-gap to a 1-gap 3-4.

3rd Round
3a. OLB Alex Okafor Texas
The Chiefs need one more LB for their overhaul and the OLB out of Texas was the lone bright spot on an underwhelming defense. If Okafor is still available in the 3rd, he could be a a steal for the Chiefs.

3b. (compensation for Carr) WR/QB Denard Robinson Michigan

There are worse things to draft late in the 3rd than a play-making athlete who has played the QB position. No one thought Russell Wilson could win the job at QB either.

4th Round *Traded

5th
DB Tyrann Mathieu

Off the field issues should not scare anyone away from top 5 talent in the 5th round. We need another play-maker in the secondary and you couldn't ask for a better one than the "Honey Badger" in the 5th round. (**may be worth a higher pick as we get closer to the draft)

6th Round
QB Logan Thomas Virginia Tech

I know... off the radar, right? Check this out: 6'6 240lb. Bigger than Big Ben, Joe Flacco, and Cam Newton. Newton runs a 4.58, Thomas a 4.67, and Ben a 4.78. Make no mistake, he's definitely a project. Ranked 108 in comp% and 8th in turnovers with a longer than you'd like throwing motion. He'll probably sit for a year or two to refine his craft before he truly competes to be the starter, but if he puts the pieces together, his talent could make him a star. There are worse ways to spend a 6th round pick.

I know it's probably not "big splash" approach to the QB position all of us want, but there's just no clear-cut answer for the Chiefs at #1 overall. There are injury questions about Albert and a VERY good LT option worth the #1 overall pick. Allowing Albert to walk clears up more space to sign some key free agents. If the Chiefs are able to turn a 4th round pick into two QBs who can come compete for the position, I think that's great value for that pick. Tyrod Taylor is a younger Mike Vick. If a mobile QB is what Reid wants, I think the better option is to go get a Tyrod Taylor or Pat White with a later round draft pick trade than wasting the first pick on Geno Smith. I think there's at LEAST an average, short-term solution in that group of QBs that could afford the Chiefs a different opportunity to fill the position long-term in the future.

Think about this for a second: Mike Vick, Tyrod Taylor, Geno Smith, Pat White, Josh Freeman, Jason Campbell, Logan Thomas, E.J. Manual, and Donovan McNabb could all be available to the Chiefs by way of draft, trade, or free agent signing this winter. All of them possess similar attributes. Think about what each of those QBs may cost compared to what they'd bring to the Chiefs and honestly assess which QB presents the greatest value. I'm sorry, but I look at that group of QBs and I just don't see one name that separates himself from the rest of the pack. So why would Geno Smith be worth the #1 overall pick when you could have any of the other guys for MUCH less.

You guys need to stop arguing back and forth about the first pick, we all have our ideas who will be picked but no one in here knows what the management is going to do. It is going to be who it is and nothing we say in here will change it. It is also too much to happen before the draft once the combine and school workouts are over most in here may come to a consensus. We are saying the same thing over and over again. It is okay to discuss it but to go on and on with no one changing their mind or even compromising a little is useless.

Sometimes trying to get a person in here to change their mind is like trying to teach a pig to sing. It just wastes your time and annoys the pig.

You guys need to stop arguing back and forth about the first pick, we all have our ideas who will be picked but no one in here knows what the management is going to do. It is going to be who it is and nothing we say in here will change it. It is also too much to happen before the draft once the combine and school workouts are over most in here may come to a consensus. We are saying the same thing over and over again. It is okay to discuss it but to go on and on with no one changing their mind or even compromising a little is useless.

Sometimes trying to get a person in here to change their mind is like trying to teach a pig to sing. It just wastes your time and annoys the pig.

How do you know they don't think Geno is the best player on the board? Geno fits Andy Reid's style well, I think they go that route.

Reid and Clark have both said there is no clear cut number one and Reid has said he is not gonna force that's when you make a mistake. Dempsey has said BPA available he will not waiver on this. Geno is not the BPA at number one, I'm not saying it won't change it very well could but if the draft were held tmrw he would t be at the top.

Or we can just go the conservative route and stay in the same state for the next 10 years, say hello to mediocrity.

You do realize with the exception of Drew Brees the last time a qb that won the sb that was not drafted in the first round was during the 2004 season with New England.

Geno to me fits Reid's scheme, he is the best option for our team to improve this draft.

Reaching when it's a QB is worth the reach damn the valu???? Explain to me how BPA is conservative. You were all about Dempsey from Green Bay! They drafted their Qb (Rogers) who was expected to go in the top 10 at 24. He drafts BPA dude he has said it he said he lives it. Look at anyone's BIG BOARD AND GENO IS NOT NUMBER 1.

Francisco the Reid fan doesn't have a clue which way Reid will go there are lots of options. He did say that Geno doesn't make his reads fast enough for Reid so we are all guessing but if you were gonna draw a conclusion is that the QB issue will NOT be forced

Big Ben and Aaron Rogers were picked at. 11 and 24 not even the top 5. What part of number one pick do you not get? If we can trade back to like 6 maybe 7 sure things change. But number one is Eli, and Peyton, or Andrew luck type QBs dude. Did I say not draft a QB in the first round. I said if the value at number one overall isn't there then don't do it. Trade back or trade back into the first.

Wow... walk away for a couple days and all logic and sense gets thrown out the door... it's like the prisoners running the prison in here.

So much to get to!

Originally Posted by jap1

Just want to clarify, do you think Seattle will give up Flynn for just swapping 4ths? I would think they would want more than that.

Also, do you take into consideration the salary cap. I would love all those FA moves, but doubt we could afford them.

Originally Posted by chiefnut

u be a smokin sum a dat der wacky weed?
seattle is not gonna trade 4ths, i don't see them settling for less than a 3rd outright. if we can get him for less then it would be a good deal

Matt Flynn failed to beat out a player in Wilson who will probably be the offensive rookie of the year. Wilson is a special player and I have a hard time faulting Flynn for losing to a guy with Wilson's talent.

On a side note, I'd like to point out how amusing it is to see the Seattle Seahawks filling their QB position EXACTLY the same way that I suggest the Chiefs do... which is go out, sign some good backups who could potentially start in this league and then draft a QB with a mid-round selection.

BUT, according to my approach's detractors, "teams aren't successful when they attempt to do this."

Matt Flynn is an unproven commodity. He had a couple great games in a Green Bay system that he knew very well. In 2013, he will be on the 2nd year of a 3yr/$19m contract. Not only would the Seahawks jump almost 30 positions in the draft, but they would also gain at least $6m in cap room this year and another $6m next year... that's worth a lot.

Originally Posted by jason1981

I hate the whole deal. Moore and flyn will not solve our problems. Thinkers like you got us in trouble to begin with. Drrrrraaaafffftttt a qb for once in your life. Repeat draft a qb. God cant beleive peopke still are brain washed to picking other peopkes backups. Their backups for a reason. I want a qb that is as good or better then their starter not their backups.

Actually, what got us in trouble was a front office that leveraged our future for the present, trading away all of our valuable draft picks for vets and doing nothing to secure the future of the franchise during the early part of the new millennium. But tunnel vision thinkers like you don't want to truly talk about WHY we're currently in the situation we find ourselves. This franchise had been doing a good job a building the team through the draft until recently when they decided "value be damned, we have a hole" and decided to plug it with poor value players.

Make no mistake about it, those of you who think that RIGHT NOW, in mid January, that there's a QB worth taking #1 overall in April, are delusional. It would be like arguing that even though we have only $5 to our name, we HAVE TO BUY a bottle of Fiji because "we need water" when, all we actually have to do is turn our facet on and fill this "need" in a much more economical fashion.

Originally Posted by MyManHali

You have to draft to be willing to find out. I would much rather go after another possible future good qb than a Tyson Jackson or Glenn Dorsey.

I think they will go qb with the first pick, and I think it will be Geno.

If you draft Geno Smith #1 overall, you're going to end up with similar value as you're currently getting out of Jackson and Dorsey... except, at a MUCH more important position. If we drafted Smith #1 overall, and he was bad, you'd be stuck for AT LEAST 5 seasons with him as the #1 guy. THEN, you'd have STILL have to find ANOTHER QB to risk high value on.

I think EVERY Chiefs fan understands the need for a good QB. However, just because you expend precious resources on one, isn't going to make him "good." There's only marginal difference in the value of the #1 pick vs. the $60+mil given to Cassel to be the Chiefs QB. Let's not forget the Chiefs spent a high 2nd round pick AND all that money on Cassel. Just because he wasn't a rookie doesn't mean the Chiefs haven't drafted a QB in the early rounds. Imagine how much worse this situation could get if the Chiefs wasted a 1st round pick, a 2nd round pick, 100+million on Matt Cassel and a busted #1 overall pick in Geno Smith. You think we're bad off now???

Originally Posted by MyManHali

How do you know they don't think Geno is the best player on the board? Geno fits Andy Reid's style well, I think they go that route.

Geno Smith isn't as mobile or as good at reading defenses and going through progressions as McNabb was when Reid drafted him. You DO realize that just because they share the same skin color, it doesn't mean all black QBs are the same, right? They're all different QBs and to think Geno Smith is the next McNabb, RGIII, or Mike Vick isn't fair to who Geno Smith ACTUALLY is as a QB. He's an entirely different QB who I think will follow more closely to the Pat White/Vince Young path than he will the McNabb/RGIII path.

Originally Posted by MyManHali

Or we can just go the conservative route and stay in the same state for the next 10 years, say hello to mediocrity.

You do realize with the exception of Drew Brees the last time a qb that won the sb that was not drafted in the first round was during the 2004 season with New England.

Geno to me fits Reid's scheme, he is the best option for our team to improve this draft.

After the last 8 seasons, I'd welcome "mediocrity." At least we're moving in the right direction. We'd be a hell of a lot better off than wasting ANOTHER 1st round pick on someone who didn't deserve the selection.

Geno Smith is a mid-to-late first round pick. I don't think you'd find anyone on this board who wouldn't be happy to see a Geno Smith to the Chiefs at any pick after #15. Seems like fair value for his type of talent. Do you have any idea what kind of draft package a team would have to put together to move up from #15 to #1 overall? They'd basically have to trade their ENTIRE draft to the Chiefs to make that move... that's the kind of value we're talking about here... Now, put Tyson Jackson in that scope. Taken #3 overall, when he SHOULD have been selected somewhere in the 20s to the 2nd round. That's a TON of draft value that the Chiefs just s#!t away in order to "fill a need".... an ENTIRE DRAFT'S worth of value that the Chiefs blew out the window... but hey, "it filled a need." Screw the tap water... we NEED FIJI!!

Originally Posted by HaliForPresident

Your 2nd round pick is gonna go top 15 and your 3rd round pick is going to go 1st round. Hali didn't even run a 4.7 second 40 at the combine and he's not gaining speed with age. Hali and Houston are both OLB in the 1 gap 3-4 defense. Basically we need 2 more DL. First pick should be Star (actually trade down but you know what I mean).

no. Ogletree is not a top 15 player in this draft. Then, after that, we're looking at Pitt, Dallas, Baltimore, Seattle, Green Bay, San Fran, Houston, NE, etc who are all pretty much set at LB. Cincinnati could take him, but they have needs all over the place and I think they need a safety much worse than a LB after the emergence of (HUGE SIGH) Vontaze Burfict... (geez, who saw THAT coming? amiright?)

I don't want to get too deep into the 1-gap 3-4 tonight, but I disagree with you on Houston and Hali. I absolutely agree that they are OLBs if they stay with the 2-gap 3-4 though. (again, the flavor of 3-4 has yet to be determined by the staff, but Reid said he liked what the Jets ran the last few years, so my guess of a 1-gap style may have actually been correct... who'da thunkit...)

Idk... maybe my source is bad. I think my point was still valid. They have the same body types and speed as Osi. They can handle the DE spot in a 1-gap.

I'd love for the Chiefs to trade down from the #1 spot. But, remember, it takes 2 to tango. There's no dominant pass-rusher or amazing QB in this draft. There's a great LT, but unless the Chiefs re-sign Albert, they'll have a need there as well. I just don't see anyone WANTING to give up the value to jump a few places to get that #1 spot. But, it's mid January and any number of things could happen between now and then. Who knows, maybe the NFL will turn on its head that kickers will become the new market inefficiency and the Chiefs could trade out of the #1 spot. But right now, I think in order for the Chiefs to maximize value, they'll be stuck at #1 and will take Joekel.

Matt Flynn had a couple GREAT games as a backup behind Aaron Rogers. Kevin Kolb had a couple GREAT games in Andy Reid's system. It doesn't look like Sporano will be coming to KC, so the chances of Moore and/or Long coming to KC may have taken a hit. I really wouldn't be shocked to see the Chiefs offer a couple late round picks to pick up Flynn and/or Kolb. Arizona soured on Kolb, but Andy Reid saw what he could do in his system. Again, if you haven't noticed, Reid and Dorsey are the ones running the show. If they saw enough from Kolb and Flynn respectively, don't be shocked if that's the tandem the Chiefs rely on to head the QB position.

I didn't address the QB position in the first few rounds because the Chiefs pick #1 overall. By the time the Chiefs pick again in the 2nd, I fully expect the top 3-4 QBs to be off the board. After those guys are gone, there's really no point in taking a QB from this class unless he presented a skill-set that could be groomed. To me, Logan looked the part. However, he'll be returning to VT next year, so that pick is moot. I'll throw up another mock each of the following months on this thread as we approach the draft.

I will say that if Wilson, Murray, Smith, or Barkley are available with the 2nd pick in the 2nd round, I would adjust my draft accordingly to take them. I just think those 4 will be taken sometime between #1 overall and #34 overall. None of them are worth #1 overall but I think they ALL represent great value at #34... yes, even Geno Smith.

i really want the chiefs to pry Rey Mauluga away from cincy.. He's a FA this year and with burcfit playing very well they could keep him and move on from rey since he hasn't been what they really wanted. But at 265+lbs and having pretty good athletic ability i think he could kill it in our system next to DJ

i really want the chiefs to pry Rey Mauluga away from cincy.. He's a FA this year and with burcfit playing very well they could keep him and move on from rey since he hasn't been what they really wanted. But at 265+lbs and having pretty good athletic ability i think he could kill it in our system next to DJ

I've been a Maualuga fan myself and would love to snatch him up for our linebacking core as well. One can hope right.

Ya i've been a fan of his since he came out.. hasnt' really lived up to his potential but i still think he could be a beast, and in our system i think he would be a monster next to our already monster LB's. THink they would be the perfect combo feeding off each other.