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Normally, the riding of Abbotsford South would be a slam dunk for the B.C. Liberals. In the 2009 election, Liberal candidate John van Dongen received 58.5 per cent of the vote; the NDP candidate got a mere 25.7 per cent.

Van Dongen has won five straight elections since 1995, and held three high-profile cabinet posts. But he became disgruntled with Premier Christy Clark’s leadership, and left the Liberals to join the B.C. Conservatives on March 26, 2012. Within a few months, he grew disenchanted with Conservative leader John Cummins, and left the party to sit as an independent on Sept. 22, 2012.

Now van Dongen is running as an independent. The Liberals have countered with a star candidate, criminologist Darryl Plecas. But a decision by the party brass to anoint Plecas without a nomination fight ticked off Abbotsford Liberal Moe Gill, who wanted to run in the riding. Several Gill supporters on the riding executive then resigned, getting the Plecas campaign off on a sour note.

Both van Dongen and Plecas expect there will be some vote-splitting among right-leaning voters in the May 14 election. The NDP’s Lakhvinder Jhaj could wind up the beneficiary of a three-way split, something that was unimaginable a couple of years ago.

Van Dongen knows independents are rarely elected in British Columbia, but feels he’ll succeed because of his constituency work. And he doesn’t buy the argument that an MLA has to be in a party to have an impact.

“I believe as an independent MLA, I can continue to represent the constituency very effectively,” he said. “I’m not bound by party lines, I’m not bound by what the leader believes, or the caucus whip believes. I do bring a lot of legislative experience, and ministerial experience.”

His campaign will focus on local issues such as “agriculture and small business, keeping them competitive, keeping them viable in more difficult economic times.” He also cites health funding as a local concern, along with the need for a new Abbotsford courthouse and the continuing controversy about the “waste to energy” incinerator that Metro Vancouver has been talking about building.

Plecas also see the incinerator as a big local issue. But what gets him really worked up are big-picture issues that affect the whole province, such as “unsustainable” debt (“if we continue on the same path, look no further than the United States, where … their debt ratio to gross domestic product is 83 per cent — let’s face it, the United States is broke”) and the potential of B.C.’s liquefied natural gas.

Plecas is so adamantly anti-NDP that it sounds like he’s running in the 2001 election, not 2013’s. And he is dismissive of van Dongen’s argument that an independent MLA can be effective.

“He can hardly claim to be a powerful voice as an independent,” said Plecas.

“I don’t mind telling you that, because I’ve told that to John to his face, before I decided to run. ‘John, you can’t be helping us an independent: the reality of politics is that it’s a party system.’ Secondly, I’m reminded, how many parties has John belonged to? He belonged to the Social Credit, then he belonged to the NDP, then he belonged to the Liberals, then he belonged to the Conservatives, and now he’s independent and he’s warming up to the Greens.

“Like, he’s had five jerseys on, you know?”

The NDP’s Jhaj has a different take on the big issues for local residents.

“One of the biggest issues is transit,” she said. “There is a lack of transit here. When somebody living in Chilliwack wants to come to Abbotsford, they actually have to get a Greyhound bus. That is a huge issue for the people of Abbotsford. And if they want to go to Vancouver, same thing.

“Affordable housing is another issue. Rent here is quite high, and people feel the crunch. We have mostly average working people here, we don’t have the big corporate businesses that maybe have higher paying wages.”

Jhaj knows she’s the underdog, but senses British Columbians are looking for change.

“It’s not just Abbotsford South, it’s everywhere you go,” she said.

“People are frustrated. They’ve had 12 years of the Liberal government, now they’re looking for change. That’s what I hear at the doorstep. Honestly, I don’t think about what Mr. van Dongen or Darryl Plecas would do, all I know is what I need to do. And that’s to get onto the doorsteps and talk to as many people as I can.”

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