Something’s been troubling me ever since I listened to President Obama’s first post-reëlection press conference.

Perhaps as a result of Hurricane Sandy, the now two-term president was finally asked a question about global warming, a topic conveniently avoided by both sides throughout the seemingly interminable campaign. The question came from New York Times White House correspondent Mark Lander: “What specifically do you plan to do in a second term to tackle the issue of climate change?”

Obama, who I voted for, began with the familiar but tired (and now essentially irrelevant) statement: “As you know, Mark, we can’t attribute any particular weather event to climate change.”

Scientists have amply explained how a hotter climate is more unstable and more likely to give us a larger quantity and/or more severe storms, mega storms, droughts, crop failures and disease outbreaks, all of course leading inevitably to human suffering and economic distress.

And hey, never mind that the Butterfly Effect is a well-understood and readily accepted scientific concept. Butterfly wings we can acknowledge as having an effect on the surrounding world, near and far. But humans pumping tons of CO2 into the air? Sending pools of toxic coal sludge into rivers? Exploding nuclear facilities? Apparently, not so much.

To quote the only really memorable line of the last two years of politicking, “Malarky!”

The fact is that we don’t need to draw a straight line from global warming to the rise of desertification, a sinking Manhattan, or an ass-walloping coast-eroding storm in order to acknowledge the problem of global warming and begin in earnest to address it.

So, the question is, given the president’s other statement and the prevailing mindset of today, Will we be able to address it?

Getting Really Real

The president went on to say that he believes global warming is real and that it is related to human activity. He even cited rising global temperatures, increasingly rapid Arctic ice melt, and lots of bad weather. So, score one for the plucky kid with the big ears and the big grin.

He even said, “we’ve got an obligation to future generations to do something about it,” before offering a litany of things his administration has done to begin that process, items that my colleague Vicki Lipski wrote about for Transition Voice.

But then, why did he have to say this:

I think the American people right now have been so focused and will continue to be focused on our economy and jobs and growth that, you know, if the message is somehow we’re going to ignore jobs and growth simply to address climate change, I don’t think anybody’s going to go for that.

On one hand, Obama shows obvious concern and compassion for the American people. He also demonstrates that he’s politically astute and realistic. But at the same time he’s at risk of setting up a false choice between responses to de-carbonizing the economy, between growth and stagnation, and between today and a seemingly distant tomorrow.

I don’t think we have to choose between the economy and the planet — after all, on a dead planet your GDP is pretty much zero — or between today and tomorrow, since climate chaos has already started happening.

But how to work such a contentious issue politically?

That’s the president’s job, to wheel and deal with different factions to get something done that many Americans aren’t ready for yet. And in that, Obama can find a power precedent in presidential history.

Like most Americans, I love President Lincoln and think we’d all be better off learning from his wisdom and following his example. Seeing him and his struggles brought to life on screen is not only crucial for our historical memory, but for understanding ourselves as Americans, how we relate and struggle with each other, do politics and muck through sometimes intensely troublesome issues that strike to the core of who we are as a people and will define our era for generations to come.

Some might balk at a comparison between Lincoln valiantly trying to hold together a young and restless Union and Obama trying to fight an amorphous specter like global warming.

Some might even disdain comparing a sinful scourge like slavery with the predicaments of global warming (and its links to peak oil and manifold economic cliffs), however much those predicaments stand to make life much worse for all of us, but most of all for the poor, ethnic minorities, and women, if we continue to avoid dealing with it.

I agree that on the surface, the issues couldn’t be more different. But in essentials, such as the weight of this dilemma on our lives now and into the future, its stakes for our nation’s enduring success, along with our crippling political immobility and maddening inability to take meaningful action, there is more in common that first meets the eye.

In this, I think Obama is facing some of the same tensions President Lincoln did, notably the profound polarization that comes about when ideology so drives the opposition. When hope of compromise is lost the only remaining path is brinksmanship. In 1861 that brinksmanship led to Civil War, rivers of blood shed to atone for our sins and push forward against the seemingly immovable.

Expecting, hoping, or even demanding the President to take policy action that causes economic impacts without being able to establish reasonable cause and effect is just wishful thinking. Major change is always driven by the threat of a common crisis. We are not yet ready take voluntary action. If the sea level rise occurs fast, society will likely adapt reactively and not proactively. The real estate and insurance industries will likely be the prime movers as they and the businesses and landowners adjust to the demands and costs associated with changes to the coastlines and the marketplaces. If the major infrastructures are put out of commission, people will move. If you want laws to be passed, what laws are you specifically are proposing and which existing ones are you thinking of changing? A wonderful new book by John Englander titled “High Tide on Main Street” describes and details the economics, architectural engineering, and social impacts and opportunities (yes, opportunities) associated with the coming sea level rise. It’s worth reading if you want to get better versed in the coming crisis.