What independence involves

“The break-up of Yugoslavia started in Kosovo and will end there.” Slobodan Milosevic used Kosovo to launch his political career in the 1980s, and the buzz in diplomatic circles is that independence for Kosovo would be “the last piece in the Balkan puzzle”. Independence, it is implied, would end the period of fractures and divisions.

This is far from certain. Independence for Kosovo would constitute a break with the rationale that governed the dissolution of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, providing for independence for federal republics (as was the case with Montenegro), but not for provinces, republics or other bodies that were simply self-governing (such as Kosovo, and Chechnya or Abkhazia in the Caucasus). Its independence would create a precedent.

Russian diplomats have been explaining for months that any solution to the Kosovo question must be based on universal principles. If Kosovo can achieve independence, why should not Transnistria (Moldova)? Advocates of independence counter that Kosovo is a specific case, but they have failed to deliver convincing arguments.

Several countries are afraid of the possible knock-on effects of Kosovar independence. Among EU countries, Spain is categorically against independence, with its effect on the Basque country and Catalonia. Romania shares this view because of the Hungarian minority in Transylvania.

The hardening of the Russian position recently observed by diplomats is probably (...)