The Palestinian Statehood Debacle: Here's What Happens Next

After days of intense talks aimed at halting the Palestinian bid
for statehood, the U.S. is bringing in its closer for one final
push.

President Barack Obama will meet with Palestinian President
Mahmoud Abbas this evening to urge him to drop plans to submit an
application for statehood with the United Nations. Obama will
also meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to try
and get him back to the negotiating table.

Obama laid out his position in his address to the UN General Assembly this morning:

"Peace will not come through statements and resolutions at the UN
– if it were that easy, it would have been accomplished by now,"
he said. "Ultimately, it is Israelis and Palestinians who must
live side by side. Ultimately, it is Israelis and Palestinians –
not us – who must reach agreement on the issues that divide them:
on borders and security; on refugees and Jerusalem."

But U.S. officials concede that it is unlikely Abbas — who faces
immense domestic pressure to stand up to Israel and the U.S. —
will renege on his decision to apply for statehood. Tens of
thousands of people are rallying in the West Bank today in
support of Palestinian statehood,
according to Al Jazeera.

The Palestinian statehood bid, expected to be submitted Friday,
will set the stage for a high-stakes diplomatic drama. Here's
what will go down:

Palestinian officials say they believe at least nine of the
15 security council members will back a Palestinian bid, and are
urging the U.S. to get out of the way of international opinion.
But the U.S. — one of five Security Council members with veto
power — has promised to block the vote.

If the Palestinians can secure a nine-member majority — and
it's not clear that they can — it will likely put immense
diplomatic pressure on the U.S., particularly in relation to the
Arab world. It would be very easy for Palestinians and their Arab
allies to call the U.S. out for using a double-standard, in light
of the Obama administration's professed support for the Arab
Spring revolutions.

The administration appears to be preparing for this
possibility. Senior administration officials — including
President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton — met with their
counterparts in Turkey and Saudi Arabia this week to give
assurances that the U.S. is committed to finding a two-state
solution and to urge the regional powerhouses to repair relations
with Israel.

International leaders are now coalescing behind a plan to
accept the Palestinian application, but delay a Security Council
vote in exchange for renewed peace talks.
The Guardian reports that Abbas appears open to the deal,
but that it is unclear where the Israelis stand. Diplomats say
negotiations are likely to go down to the wire on Friday.

If a deal can't be reached, the Palestinians can ask the
General Assembly to upgrade them from an "entity" to a
"non-member state." That vote is likely to pass, which would
likely be a catastrophe for the Obama administration
domestically.

If the Palestinian statehood issue devolves into a full-blown
diplomatic crisis, it could also have significant political
consequences for the Obama administration at home:

After a year of foreign policy crises, the Obama
administration has finally turned its attention to its domestic
economic agenda. A UN showdown over Middle East peace could once
again knock Obama off his message — at a time when he can least
afford it.

The issue highlights what many perceive to be the Obama
administration's major foreign policy failure. The
administration's relationship with Israel has been rocky, and
critics alternately accuse the president for being too harsh on
Israel, and for not taking a firm enough stance against Israeli
hardliners. Both of these criticisms will make their way back
into the national — and international — conversation if the
Palestinian statehood issue isn't resolved quickly and quietly.

Criticism of Obama's policies toward Israel gives his 2012
Republican opponents a line of attack that seems particularly
relevant after last week's Republican upset in New York's heavily
Jewish 9th Congressional District. GOP presidential frontrunner
Rick Perry
went after the President for not supporting the Jewish
state, joining forces with influential pro-Israel hawks at
a rally in New York yesterday. His main rival, Mitt Romney, also issued a statement that
blamed Obama for the Palestinian decision to submit a bid for
statehood.

The Republicans will have a major forum to attack Obama at
the Florida GOP debate tomorrow night. This is particularly bad
news for the president, who needs support from Florida's Jewish
seniors to carry the key battleground state in 2012.

UPDATE 1:57 p.m.:

Reuters
reports that the Palestinians will give the UN Security Council
"some time" to study their statehood bid.