Tropical Storm PAKHAR Advisory Sat Mar 31

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION IN THE
FORM OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH DEVELOPING FEEDER BANDS
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310051Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND APPROXIMATELY 75 PERCENT OF
THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 302255Z 37 GHZ CORIOLIS
IMAGE ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH BASED ON PERIPHERAL STORM INTERACTION WITH LAND AND
DECREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 02W
IS A FEW DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS STREAMING POLEWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING RIDGE, AND IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL OVER HO CHI MINH CITY BY TAU 36. THE LIGHT VWS, GOOD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TS 02W TO
MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL. BY TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL INLAND AND DISSIPATED. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
EGRR WHICH HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM A DUE POLEWARD TRACK TO A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO THE OVERALL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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