Wednesday, September 06, 2006

The Rev and the NFL... 2006 preview

The first thing I will admit is that these picks aren't really anything more than the gut feeling of a guy who loves football just as much as you do.

No, I did not do heavy research on this. No, I never played the game at a higher level than rough touch football in grade school. No, I never even scored in high school with the babes. I am the anti-jaywhite in every aspect.

However, I am a guy who has spent many Sundays with his butt firmly attached to a bar stool watching football and eating nachos. I thik that qualifies me to write an NFL preview on this blog at the very least.

Allow me to say that I fully realize some of these picks might be full of crap. Feel free to tell me what is full of crap or not. I did make a few of these picks simply for shock value and simply to have the balls to make the pick. But I didn't go too crazy. In my twisted mind, I did have logic for each pick.

This is going to be long. Feel free to print it out and take it to the can with you today. My predictions are first with quick capsules on each team.

NFC East1st - Eagles2nd - Cowboys3rd - Giants4th - Redskins

First thing I know you're going to say... he's biased for the Eagles. Guess what? You're right. I am biased. I fully admit it. But I will be as honest as I can. First of all, I'm not 100% sold on this pick. I think the Cowboys can easily take this division as well. I think it might come down to a tie-breaker. But this is what I see on the Eagles this season. I see a defense that fixed a major hole when they picked up Darren Howard for the d-line. That will be an impact more than you know. The Eagles defense was having major trouble last year geting QB pressure. Not only will Howard improve that, his presence will get the pressure of the rest of the line, which will make Jevon Kearse happier. Offensively, McNabb is healthy and that has to be a good thing. Donte Stallworth was an important pickup. Brian Westbrook is extremely dangerous. But... McNabb has to prove something to everyone this season, Stallworth couldn't even be #1 in New Orleans, and Westbrook has trouble getting through the season. Every team has question marks and the Eagles have their share. And yes, I really do know more about the Eagles than any other NFL team. This will be my longest team capsule, I assure you.

You don't talk about Dallas without talking about TO. So let's just get it over with. I dislike TO as much as anyone here, probably more. After all, he burned me as a Philadelphia Eagles fan. But allow me to say this... if his Dallas career goes like his Eagles career, that means he will have a monster year this year and save the major disruption for next season. So I think we are going to see the TO that puts up 1600 yards and about 15 TD's this season. We also could see the first ever bench clearing brawl in the NFL with only one bench involved. Anything is possible really.

The Giants... I like their skill players a lot. I would go to war right now with Eli, Tiki, and Plaxico. But the pundits keep talking about their schedule being the toughest in the NFL. That combined with getting beat up in the NFC East will be formidable. But they are a playoff team.

The Redskins, well I honestly don't know what to make of them. They could just as easily be a 6 win team or a 10 win team. Zeke will kill me for saying this, but I'm rooting for 6. If Clinton Portis has health problems all year, it will be 6.

NFC North1st - Vikings2nd - Bears3rd - Lions4th - Packers

The Vikings are the smart team in this division. They have a smart coach. They have a smart QB. They will have a smart offense. But it's smart like the girl in high school who was the brain who would be really cute if she didn't wear those damn glasses all the time. But that's usually the girl who goes to college and gets laid constantly after not touching a man in high school, isn't it? Anyway, I digress. I don't think the Vikings will be exciting, but they will be smart. I think they win this division more by default.

The Bears... million dollar defense, 5 cent offense. They are the Nuke LaLoosh of the NFL.

The Lions... I love Kevin Jones. He's a local Philly area product. Not much else to say after that.

The Packers... Not only should Brett Favre retire after this season, I thought he should have retired two years ago. I have a feeling this season is going to make football fans really sad to watch him.

NFC South1st - Panthers2nd - Buccaneers3rd - Falcons4th - Saints

The Panthers are everyone's "it" team this season. It's their division to lose. I could give all the reasons why they will win and have a great list. But let me give you a couple of reasons they might not win it all. First off, can you swear on a bible that you believe DeShaun Foster can be the man for 16 games this season? Neither can I. While everyone is questioning whether TO will be healthy or not, no one seems to be doing the same with Steve Smith, yet Smith is sitting out practice in preseason for the same reason TO has. He may be fine, but there is a question mark. If Steve Smith is not healthy and DeShaun Foster does not come up big, there could be a problem in Carolina. If they do come up big, Carolina could get deep in the playoffs.

The Bucs are relying heavily on Chris Simms to be the man. If he is the man, they will contend. If not, they will falter. They are one of those teams relying on a young QB to take the next step. There's more than one of those teams this year in the NFL.

The Falcons... I know there's some love on the blog for them. I love Warrick Dunn. That guy just goes out and does the job every year. But I'm in the Michael Vick hater camp. He's in love with his own ideas on how to play the game, and that won't be good.

The Saints... I love the fact that they got Reggie Bush. I like Drew Brees a lot. But their front office let too many important players get away. And take it from me... if your defense is relying on Mark Simoneau to start, you have major problems. Just trust me on that.

NFC West1st - Seahawks2nd - Cardinals3rd - Rams4th - 49ers

Last year, the defending NFC Champs got bit by two curses. The Eagles suffered the fate of many teams in recent years of losing the Super Bowl, then not making the playoffs the following year. That combined with the dreaded Madden jinx on McNabb was a deadly combination. Guess what? The Seahawks are facing the same combined curse this year. And guess what? I think they break both of them. In a weak division, they might sweep the 6 division games and put up big numbers in the win column.

The Cardinals... their wideouts will make Kurt Warner look good. They needed a guy like Edge James in a big way. But everyone is telling me their o-line is terrible, and I'll take their word for that. But I will say that in a close game with the Cardinals having the ball, I would not want to defend against James, Fitzgerald, and Boldin.

The Rams... fantasy team owners love Stephen Jackson this season. And he will get a ton of carries. But the Rams are a far cry from the Greatest Show on Earth they were a few years ago.

The 49ers... Alex Smith won't turn them around this season. Maybe in 2008.

I honestly think the Eagles can make some noise in the playoffs (though the pick over Carolina is really a crapshoot... Carolina could just as easily take that game). They rebuilt well and fixed some glaring weaknesses. A healthy McNabb will make a difference. But in the end, the Seahawks are too good. And I really hope I am wrong about my pick, but I had a feeling if I picked the Eagles to win the NFC on this blog, you all would call me a big homer.

AFC East1st - Patriots2nd - Dolphins3rd - Bills4th - Jets

The Patriots are the type of team that can let a guy like Deion Branch go, and act like they don't miss him. I like Deion Branch as a player. I always have. But I don't think the Pats will miss him. Tom Brady and their system always made him better. I think that same combo will make a guy like Doug Gabriel better. And I do believe reports of Corey Dillon's demise might be premature. The defense... Bill Belichick, nuff said!

I like what the Dolphins did this season. Culpepper may have lost a step, but he's a major upgrade at QB for them. Ronnie Brown looks like the real deal. But with so many teams in the AFC that can contend, they will be in the group of teams fighting for the wild card.

The Bills... I have a problem with Willis McGahee. I swear, if I ever meet him, him and I will have words. He put up the goose egg that killed me in my fantasy football playoff last year. I will step up to him and say a few things. Of course, that might get me pummeled as a result, but it will be worth it.

The Jets... I could play for the Jets right now. Honestly, I think I could make the team as a long snapper or something. That's pretty sad.

AFC North1st - Bengals2nd - Steelers3rd - Browns4th - Ravens

Is Carson Palmer healthy? It looks like it so far. Is he going to stay healthy for the season? I don't know. If he stays healthy, are the Bengals going to take this divison? You'd better believe it!

Maybe the Steelers get into the playoffs this season on the sheer fact that they are the Steelers and they are tough. Maybe they get in based on the strength of Bill Cowher's chin alone. I think they will get in. But Big Ben can't catch a health break. As good as Willie Parker is, they will miss Bettis. It will be a struggle for them this season.

I think the Browns could scare some people. I'm a Reuben Droughns fan. If Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow stay off the IR, they have two young weapons. Romeo Crannel is building that defense into his mold. This may be the team fo the future at some point. But this isn't the future yet.

The Ravens... Steve McNair was a good pickup. He would have been a better pickup 5 years ago. He will sell some tickets and jerseys in Baltimore, but wins will be tough.

AFC South1st - Jaguars2nd - Colts3rd - Titans4th - Texans

The Jaguars came on strong last season with a weaker schedule. This season the schedule gets tougher. But I think they can overcome it. And really, the only reason I have them winning the division is because I want to be the one with the balls to call the upset of the Colts.

The Colts are still really good without Edge James. But if Jacksonville does overtake them, that puts them into the mix of teams fighting for the wild card, which in the AFC includes some really good teams. If they slip up in a couple of big games, it could be the difference.

The Titans... will be good in a couple of years. Kerry Collins is a good seat warmer for Vince Young. Just making that move might be the difference for the Titans getting some more wins. But they are not a playoff team this year.

The Texans... I'll be the 3,254,765th person online to say that they are going to regret not getting Reggie Bush. Sure, Mario Williams may be great. In fact, I think he may be a star. But they needed Reggie Bush. They really need him now with Davis on the shelf.

AFC West1st - Chargers2nd - Broncos3rd - Chiefs4th - Raiders

This was the toughest division for me to call. For the Chargers, they are another team that is relying heavily on their young QB to be the man. For the Chargers to give up Drew Brees who is pretty good in his own right tells me something. Of course, it could also tell me that it is a dumb move from an organization that relied so heavily on Ryan Leaf at one time. But if we can give them a benefit of the doubt, how can you ignore a team with LaDanian Tomlinson and a pretty good D? I'll show some guts and pick them first. But I fully admit that it could go wrong.

The Broncos make fantasy team owners mad on a regular basis. But they win on a regular basis. I think of all the teams I have fighting it out for the wild card, they might be the best. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if they took this division. I really wouldn't.

The Chiefs... Larry Johnson is awesome. But Trent Green is getting old. And if he's not healthy, you get Damon Huard. There will be a lot of praying done in KC for Trent Green's health this season.

The Raiders actually attempted to sign Jeff George this year. What does that tell you?

Honestly, picking the Patriots to return in this AFC was a tough one. But I think two things will happen. First off, I think the Pats will have that good of a regular season record to get that #1 seed, and I also think that the AFC West is going to beat each other up keeping at least one playoff worthy team out of it (in this case, the Chiefs). Then, I think the playoff schedule will be favorable for the Pats if they get the #1 seed. I think the Broncos are good enough to get into the second round to face them in Foxboro, and I think the Pats take out the Broncos in a revenge game for last year's beating. The Pats and the Bengals looks to me like it would be a classic game. But you don't beat the Patriots in an AFC Championship game in Foxboro. I don't care who you are.

However, if somehow the Pats blow a couple of games in the regular season (always a possibility) and get a two or a three seed instead, all bets are off. They're a great team, but I think they need that home field advantage this year.

Then, we come to the big game...

Super Bowl - Seahawks beat the Patriots

The Patriots do have some weaknesses after all. Though the Pats are the premier Super Bowl tested team, I think the Seahawks get redemption for last year. I just think they are that good.

But really, this is all one big gut reaction. I think this season is one of the biggest crapshoots in recent memory. I see 4 teams in the NFC with realistic shots at the Super Bowl, and really I could see anyone of my 6 playoff picks in the AFC doing it too. In fact, I think two of the teams that might not make the playoffs in the AFC are really good too, those being the Chiefs and Colts. Either of those two teams could get in the playoffs and I wouldn't be surprised. I just think that in both of their cases, they have weaknesses that will keep them out and that combined with the overall strength of the conference will seal their fate.

6 teams make the playoffs, not 8. But there are 8 really good teams in the AFC. In the NFC, yes the Bears or the Bucs could get in the playoffs, but I think three teams will actually go from the NFC East. It's a great division this year. It would be tough to really accomplish having three teams from one division, but it could happen. If any division would pull it off, it's the NFC East.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to make my reservations at the sports bar for my usual barstool this weekend.

A couple of thoughts I had while reading that...First, DeShaun Foster is a piece of crap. I honestly think Carolina would be better off with DeAngelo Williams starting at RB, he is a stud. I know Foster is the starter right now, but when he gets hurt, Williams will step right in to that spot and their O won't miss a beat. And if he gets hurt as well, they will need to change their #3 RB to DeNick Goings.Second, while I agree that Houston should have take Reggie instead of Mario Williams, it's possible that this could work out for them in the long run. They are going to suck ass this year, which could get them the top pick again next year. If/when Adrian Peterson declares for the draft after this season, they could end up with him, which would give them a big play guy on Defense & Offense in back to back drafts. I know obviously this wasn't their plan, but if it unfolds like that, they would have a solid building block on both sides of the ball.

On yesterday's draft: I had a few players listed in my que when I left, and three defenses were some of them...that's why it picked up three defenses. I like my team though...I think Zeke is going to have all he can handle in week one! :)

Rev...I'm with the Bears like you are with the Eagles. The Bears have one of the easiet schedules in the NFL this year, and they play in one of the worst divisions. I see their defense carrying them to another division title and play off berth this year, with their offense making some strides. Without a doubt, we will see Brian Griese this season, and he'll probably take over the starting job (not sure why he hasn't got it already). The offense will do better under him, and they will be a tough team to beat.

I think in the NFC East, the Giants are the best (hurts to say it, because I'm an Iggles fan), and the Eagles are second (although the 'Boys are right there depending on when T.O. blows up). the Skins are putrid - Nice work getting a starting qb, Snyder.

Vikings winning that division is laughable only because the sched for the Bears is pre-K and if Brad Johnson goes down (38) then forget it. And chester taylor is unproven has a starter.

Giants are better than the Eagles. but I'm a giant fan so you knew that already. forget the schedule talk because they can handle it.

The Jag pick is crazy...they will not sneak up on teams any more. Everyone knows jax can play and Del Rio can coach. Colts win that division hands down. You may be one year too early on that pick.And the Ravens D is nasty, no way Cleavland finishes ahead of them.

Good stuff bro, rip me if you please on my blog. today i got the NFC preview, tomorrow is the AFC and Friday's the betting begins.

I gotta step up for the Falcons. I don't think they can win the South, but they have to be second. You brought up Simms, who would you rather have Simms or Vick? Hate on Vick all you want and trot out the poor passer rating, but look at the Win/Loss record. Vick wins. That's all that matters.

Now for my original hometown team.....the lions. You really should put them at the bottom. Not because of the players, but because of the front office. They have the WORST front office in the league. They flew the team out ON A GAME DAY to the west coast. Look at it this way the Ford family owns two things 1) a football team 2) a car company....both of them suck balls.

I almost choked on my morning Red Bull seeing the Eagles in the NFC championship game. They could easily finish last or first. I think the NFC East is getting the ND treatment as far as hype is concerned. All teams are good but have some sort of flaw/question marks.

Don't let the Skins preseason fool you. They'll be ok, I like that D as the best in the division. I think NYG won't be able to stop the run and their corners are overrated. I've heard this from more than one source that D Howard was done 2 years ago and I think Jevon Kearse is done also. Lito Sheppard is vastly overrated, and as a team Philly's window is closed, its tough to keep it open for 6+ years. I do think McNabb will have a bounce back year though. Dallas's defense is young and improving and should be ok, just not as good as WAS.

I think the Bucs and 1 NFC East team will get the WC's. Seattle to get back to the SB isn't a bad choice, but I think they might implode and miss the playoffs.

In the AFC, Cincy could make some noise but you gots to beat the champs to be the champs and I think Pitt is severly underrated/under the radar. NE might give it a go but I think they are another year old, thinner and will fizzle out.

The Skins did invest in a QB to go with all those new and expensive threats, he's just not ready yet.

You've got a team, supposedly ready for a SB run and you're going to let basically a rookie QB run the thing? Uh, no.

Gibbs knows what he's doing.

I actually LOVE the fact that the Skins were everyone's darling in the offseason followed by everyone jumping off the bandwagon before the season starts. I hope they get the "us vs the world" mentality started now.

I'd really be shocked if Philly made the playoffs. They can't run the ball, when they do run it one RB breaks his foot (westbrook) and the other tears both ACL's (Buckhalter). You can't throw the ball every play and win.

Isiah- giants won't be able to stop the run? A little confused there. Antonio Pierce, Arrington, Short, Blackburn? Will Demps and Gibril Wilson? I know I'm sounding like a homer but all these guys tackle exceptionally well no to mention we have four pass rushing ends who any team in this league would take now.

Skins problem is Brunellif your confident in him then your smoking funny cigarettes

I saw him with a chick here in Houston late last year at a book signing. I'm not sure if that was his wife, but if it was...he didn't do too bad. My guess is that it was not his wife though, but a Sports Mistress, or a Sports Groupie of some sort.

Speaking of Houston, everytime he comes here he bashes the hell out of this city, which is fine. Funny thing is, everything is paid for for him, he is going to all these great sporting events for free, all the media events...and he bitches like a woman about everything! "Ohh the parking was bad so I couldn't get in the stadium right away to watch the Patriots warm up!". Cry me a river. I'd park across the state and walk for a chance to see the Bears in the Super Bowl.

yeah, i went to his signing in austin. i regretted not asking him if that chick was his wife or not. i feel much better now that the rev. has cleared these things up for me.

as for what i had him inscribe: i had two books, so for one of them i had him write what the scorecard would look like if he and zeke threw down 2) what drug(s) he thought Chris "Birdman" Anderson was on when he was suspended for failing a drug test.

new pick: Steelers (Pick 'EM) over Dolphins. Playing in the 'Burgh is a decided advantage, Charlie Batch at QB or not. Their D is not to shabby either. Culpepper is still a question mark. I cant believe Big Ben is basically worth 4.5 points--which Pittsburgh was favored by in this game before Big Ben had his surgery.

First of all he has written a lot about the Philly signing. I'm sure you have heard stories.

You may remember him before the signing calling it the first ever signing where he might get booed. I'm happy to report that while standing in line, I was the one who started the round of boos for him. I found out no one had done it yet, so I took control and got us all booing him. To which he smiled and gave a thumbs up. He wanted to get booed in Philly. I gave him his wish. I was surprised no one else had started it before I got there (I got there a little later).

Secondly, there was a time when I thought he wasn't going to have a Philly signing. So I had my friend in Chicago get me a book signed at a signing there to send to me thinking I wouldn't have an opportunity. And he wrote in it, "I'm sorry I didn't make it to Philly". I got that book and thought I was done.

I was one of the many who e-mailed him complaining that he didn't come to Philly on his first East Coast swing. It turns out they wanted to, but were having trouble finding a place to have the signing. Thankfully, they fixed that for the second swing.

So, when the Philly signing finally happened, I decided to go out and just to have him change what he wrote in my book. Besides, I actually wanted to meet him in person too, so it worked. And it provided a funny story when I got to him.

So when I got to him, I explained everything. And I told him to put a big X through what he originally wrote, and write above it "Thanks for talking me into coming to Philly." So that way, his original statement is still visible with an X through it, and the new inscription is above with two signatures.

He told me I made history on his book tour. While there had been more than one double-signing of a book in previous signings, I was the first "cross out double signing" of the tour. Him and his cute publicist actually sounded excited about it when they said that.

He is a very cool guy. I got to talk to him for about a minute and a half while getting a pic with him. Definitely a highlight.

I used to walk past a Scientology place on Beacon St in Boston when I went to college. They had people on the street in front of the building trying to get people to come inside to have a personality test. They were handing out flyers and trying to get people to come in off the street.

I almost did it once just because I was bored and I had no idea what it was about.

If I remember correctly, I didn't go in because I wanted to get to lunch instead before the dining hall closed and I told them I might come back later. Then I was too lazy to go back and forgot about it.

Amen to that lunch comment Rev. Nice pic with Simmons btw. I got the book for Christmas but no signing in the Dirty South. As for the draft yesterday somebody on this lawless society had to pick up Marcus Vick. Practice Squad or not some things just need to happen.

Zeke - Yeah I'm in Phx area too. I'm tired of hearing everything about the Cardinals this year. Everyone did the same thing last year and they were horrible. I don't see anything different this year except they are paying a lot more for their RB. Warner should have his first concussion midway thru week 2.