Last year the 49ers had one of the best Special Teams units in the NFL. Hands down. Really, this is the ultimate irony of the NFC Championship game. I know, I know. Let’s not dwell on it. I don’t want to either, but the one phase of the game that was always supposed to be a given – Special Teams – was the phase that really hurt us in the most direct and obvious ways.

Well I’m going to hazard a guess, here, and argue that we will see a regression next year from our Special Teams, and there are a couple of reasons why.

First off, while we have two of the best kickers in the game, there is no way that David Akers and Andy Lee are sure things year in and year out. Let’s be perfectly honest, we are so spoiled. I mean, even before we had Mr. Akers, we had a pretty awesome dude by the name of Joe Nedney. Special teams has been a strong for use for a long time. As such, we should expect a little bit of fluctuation here and there. That’s totally normal, and Akers, Lee, and the gang deserve a little wiggle room after a record breaking season – most notably on the part of Mr. Akers.

What Wes wrote seemed to jive with common sense, but after a moment, I decided it would be worth taking a further look.

Last season, David Akers was able to convert on 85 percent of his 52 field goal attempts and all 34 of his extra points. These stats ranked about middle of the pack last year, which was a bit surprising for me. Based on what has been written, I was expecting it to be much higher. And yet, it wasn’t.

For his career, Akers has a FG completion percentage of 82 percent, just below last year’s 85 percent mark.

And what about the distance of said kicks?

Here are his career numbers compared to last season.

0-19

20-29

30-39

40-49

50+

Tot

2011 Season

100%

100%

93%

55%

78%

85%

Career

100%

99%

89%

68%

55%

82%

As you can see, his rate stats are not out of the ordinary. Last year, he kicked a career high 52 field goals and made 44 of them. His previous high in attempts was 40, so it is no wonder he set records.

Akers made more long field goals than he had in the past, but missed slightly more medium-long field goals.

Looking at things from a detached statistical perspective, they don’t look that out of the ordinary beside the pure number of attempts Akers had last season. His completion percentage is well within the normal range for kickers. He may not make as many 50+ yard field goals next season, but he will probably make a few more in the 40-49 yard range to make up for that.

So, is David Akers due for regression? I would say: No.

What is due for regression is the 49ers offense, which should score more touchdowns and settle for less field goals next season.

About the Author

Scott "Bay Area Stats Guy" Willis is a life long sports fan who has a fascination with the statistical side of things. He has been writing on these here internets about the San Francisco Giants since 2010 at Crazy Crabbers and at Bay Area Sports Guy since 2011 but if you dig real deep some of his high school newspaper stuff is out there too. You can follow him on twitter @BAStatsGuy or Google +Scott Willis

I think everybody expects the team to regress just based on the schedule alone. Last year opened against the mighty Seahawks....this year a fun time at Green Bay. And so it goes.
But regress doesn't mean not play well or be as good a team..its just going to be hard to win 10 of 11 or so like last year.
And against the better teams,Akers might have more kicks blocked,rushed,tipped..even if his leg is fine.

I have been telling people about Andy lee for years! He's the best punter not named lechler as I have great respect for him too, both punt in high wind stadiums like Seattle KC San Diego the stick and Oco etc... As far as Akers goes, the offense as a whole left tons of points on the field with stalled drives resulting in FGs. I expect a more efficient offense that won't rely on Akers as much. That being said in comparison to Nedney who I really liked, he has a strong accurate leg, and kickers can kick forever barring hamstring health see Morton Anderson, Gary Anderson, etc... Score more TDs and we won't be setting franchise records for FGs is my point...good article again can't wait for niners season!

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