James Carville: Nuclear deal with Iran a game-changer

Since the election, many pundits have reflected on 2014 results and tried to speculate about the implications for 2016.

As for me, I have run a small sample experiment to test a hypothesis that I have. You might even want to try it yourself.

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Ask any conservative who has a basic knowledge of politics what he or she thinks the possible political ramifications of an Iran nuclear proliferation deal would mean. If your results are anything like mine, the question will be met with instant and vehement opposition to the idea that any such deal is possible.

Conservatives deny this possibility so forcefully because they know what Tessio says in “The Godfather” is true, when he finds out Michael would be taking a different car: “Hell, he can’t do that; that screws up all my arrangements.”

I really don’t have any particular insights into whether the U.S. and Iran will make a deal on nuclear proliferation or not, but if they do, American politics will be undergoing a big change. It sort of reminds me of a line said about Mike Tyson’s boxing ability: “He hits you so hard it knocks the taste out of your mouth.”

This issue is going to fundamentally change the foreign policy debate for the 2016 presidential election. I am often asked about immigration and ObamaCare, but this issue might prove to be one of the most interesting to follow in the next two years.

I leave it to the foreign policy and military experts to talk about the changes it could mean for diplomacy and international relations, but everything I have read suggests it will be substantial.

At any rate, it is pretty clear that the Israel lobby, the neocons, perhaps the Saudis, the Tea Partyers and more will be lined in vigorous opposition.

And the deal will no doubt be a tough sell from the administration’s standpoint, battling opposition from its usual allies in the American Jewish community and the predictable opposition from the conservatives at the same time. But its effect on the American political debate could be enormous.

Again, I don’t really have any idea if this is going to happen, but if it does, I will just echo what Vice President Biden said about the Affordable Care Act: It’s really a big f-ing deal.

Carville is a political contributor for Fox News and ARISE News. He also serves as a professor at Tulane University in New Orleans, where he lives with his wife, Republican strategist Mary Matalin. Carville is the co-author with Stan Greenberg of It’s The Middle Class, Stupid! His column will appear twice a month in The Hill.