Love minus zero and probably still no limit

Theresa May in Paris. She knows there's no success like failure and that failure's no success at all. Credit: Bob Dylan

May 12, 2017

May and Macron are treading diverging paths in the ever-complex Brexit era, writes Geoff Kitney.

Two events in recent days have perfectly captured the essence of Brexit and the future of Europe.

One was the election of a leader who could be called “a child of the European Union” – new French president Emmanuel Macron. The second was the startling news that the newish British Prime Minister, Theresa May, was open to the idea of bringing back fox hunting in Britain.

If ever there were two events which demonstrated the diverging paths of Britain and France in the Brexit era, these were them: May marching back to an anachronistic and isolationist past at an ever increasing pace; Macron striding towards the future based on an ambitious and optimistic vision of France in a united Europe.

I lived in London at the time of the debate over the legislation to ban fox hunting.

My wife took a petition around our upper-middle-class neighbourhood seeking support for the ban. She was astounded by the antipathy she felt from Conservative voters to her canvassing. Fox hunting, she was told, was “in the British blood” and was “a fundamental right”.

Some were convinced that this was “political correctness” which was being imposed on the United Kingdom by the European Commission.

For those people, May’s support for removal of the ban will be taken as evidence of the wisdom of the people in voting to leave the European Union, reclaiming British sovereignty and reclaiming British traditions.

For Brexit to have the best chance of success, unity is paramount. May has yet to show she is capable of achieving it

But for others, this will be confirmation that Brexit was a decision irrationally driven by nostalgia for a British identity that time and progress have left behind.

As a symbol of the madness of Brexit, it could hardly be more vivid.

En marche to Ode to Joy

Compare this with the symbolism of Emmanual Macron’s extraordinary rise to the French presidency. At the supreme moment of his success – as he emerged to claim victory – he chose the European anthem, Ode to Joy, to announce his arrival. The statement was obvious – France and the European Union are one.

In every sense – in symbolism, in political messaging and in reality – this was the antithesis of Brexit.

Observing this from a distance, it is impossible to avoid the feeling that Marcon’s election has compounded the folly of Brexit. His pledge – to rejuvenate France and recommit to the rejuvenation of the European project – feels like it is right for the times. Brexit feels like the polar opposite.

This being said, however, it can also be seen that Macron and May face strikingly similar challenges.

Brexit and the rejuvenation of the European Union face daunting obstacles.

Britain and France emerge from the democratic processes that resulted in their vastly different choices with deep divisions among their populations.

In Britain, the radical choice for separation and the intensity with which the winners are ramming their choice down the throats of those who wished to remain in Europe are testing May’s political skills.

For Brexit to have the best chance of success, unity is paramount. May has yet to show she is capable of achieving it.

[For some fox hunting] will be confirmation that Brexit was a decision irrationally driven by nostalgia for a British identity that time and progress have left behind

In France, the majority voted for a future in Europe, despite deep uncertainty about what that future holds. For that, Macron owes his people a presidency that boldly tackles the economic and social challenges within France and the pan-European challenges that will require French leadership, in partnership with the major European powers, to overcome.

If Macron succeeds, he will unify his country. If he fails, the consequences for France and for Europe will be severe.

How well a leader so young and untested will do at this challenge is impossible to say. However, there are some who are optimistic.

An EU insider who spoke to Chief-Exec.com privately said he had worked with Macron when he was an adviser to the French presidency. He and Macron were what is known in the business as “sherpas” – the officials who work behind the scenes on the policy and logistical preparations for EU leadership meetings.

He said Macron made a strong impression on his counterparts from other EU countries.

“He showed strong leadership qualities from the first time we engaged with him,” the insider said. “He was a very confident person, a clear thinker and brilliant problem solver. I am very hopeful about his presidency.”

He said he believed Macron’s election would come to be seen as a turning point for France and for Europe.

Macron’s election has already changed the conversation about the political outlook for Europe and the wider western democratic order which the Brexit vote and subsequent talk of inexorably rising nationalism and conservatism set in motion.

In this sense, more is riding on Macron’s success than May’s.

Nevertheless, the world will be watching both intensely in what will be a period in which new leaders face some of the most daunting challenges of the 21st century so far.

News Bites

May to hold talks with Merkel in Berlin
Theresa May is due to hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel as she seeks to make progress on negotiating Brexit. The PM will travel to Berlin for the meeting at the Chancellery. It comes a day ahead of a speech on Saturday in which she is expected to set out the “security partnership” she wants to maintain with the EU. The UK is under pressure to reveal more detail about the final relationship it wants with the EU. Mrs May and her ministers are setting out what has been dubbed “the road to Brexit” in a series of speeches. BBC news, February 16

UK aims to keep financial rules close to EU
The UK is ready to set out its vision for how it wants financial services to operate after Brexit and favours an ambitious “mutual recognition” of regulations to preserve the City of London’s access to the EU. Under Britain’s proposal, the UK and the EU would recognise each other’s regulatory and supervisory regimes and would have aligned rules at the point of Brexit, with a mechanism that would monitor any divergence. Three senior figures briefed on Brexit discussions in the cabinet said that the government will back the proposal, which is also favoured by Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor. Financial Times, February 16

Business leader warns May against harsh immigration policy
British companies are facing a recruitment crisis, with labour shortages hitting critical levels in some sectors, according to a business leader who has urged the government to produce details on a post-Brexit immigration system. Adam Marshall, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the lack of candidates for some jobs was biting hard, and he warned ministers against bringing forward a “draconian and damaging” visa or work permit system. Surveys by the BCC showed that nearly three-quarters of firms trying to recruit had been experiencing difficulties “at or near the highest levels since [BCC] records began over 25 years ago”, he said. The Guardian, February 16

Lecturers want ‘radical’ tuition fee review
University staff are calling for a “radical” overhaul of tuition fees and higher education funding in England in a review of student finance. Sally Hunt, leader of the University and College Union, says the review must be more than “tinkering at the edges”. The review, expected to be formally announced in the near future, follows a promise by the prime minister to examine the cost of university. Theresa May said the review would show “we have listened and we have learned”. Ms Hunt, whose members are threatening strike action next week in a pensions dispute, says there needs to be a “fundamental look at university funding”. BBC news, February 16

Shampoo ‘as bad a health risk as car fumes’
Shampoo, oven cleaner, deodorant and other household products are as significant a source of the most dangerous form of air pollution as cars, research has found. Scientists studying air pollution in Los Angeles found that up to half of particles known as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) came from domestic products, which also include paint, pesticides, bleach and perfumes. These compounds degrade into particles known as PM2.5, which cause respiratory problems and are implicated in 29,000 premature deaths each year in the UK. Traffic had been assumed to be the biggest source of air pollution. The new findings, published in the journal Science, led to warnings that countries may struggle to hit pollution targets, with most tackling vehicle emissions. The Times, February 16

US rejects China bid for Chicago Stock Exchange
The US has rejected a proposed merger between the Chicago Stock Exchange and a Chinese-linked investor group. The decision comes after more than two years of reviews by officials. The tie-up was initially approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, pending further approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). But US politicians, including President Trump, have said letting a Chinese firm invest in a US exchange was a bad idea. Under the proposal, the Chinese-led North America Casin Holdings group would have bought a minority share of the privately owned Chicago Stock Exchange. BBC news, February 16

Labour gets 16,000 emails in five days urging it to consult on Brexit
More than 16,000 people have emailed Labour over the past five days, urging the party to consult members on Brexit after MPs said the topic was being ignored by its most senior policy body. The emails from party members will be examined by the party’s national policy forum (NPF), which meets this weekend in Leeds, and whose members include the shadow cabinet and trade union leaders. Labour has set up eight policy commissions since last year’s general election, to consult members and develop policy, but none focus on Brexit. The party has said Brexit is covered under the international policy commission, involving Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, but that commission is not at the moment accepting submissions on Brexit. The Guardian, February 15