The Most Valuable Lesson I Learned When Pursuing a Finance&nbspMajor

The author's views are entirely his or her own (excluding the unlikely event of hypnosis) and may not always reflect the views of Moz.

Not many people know that I actually attended the University of Washington in Seattle and worked, briefly, towards a degree in finance, thinking that maybe I'd abandon all this Internet nonsense and pursue a career on Wall Street. It was a long time ago (in web years), and I dropped out of the program two classes away from graduation to dedicate more time to the company that would become SEOmoz (in 2001). Before I did, though, I met a professor named Darren Kisgen. Here's a few tidbits from his CV:

University of Washington, Seattle, WA
Doctor of Philosophy, Finance, 2004

Voted "Favorite Teacher" in the University of Washington Business School, 2002 (why am I not surprised?)
Average teacher rating in courses taught: 4.7 out of 5.0 (1998-Present)
Ph.D. Teaching Award for Excellence in Teaching, 2001

Darren was not only a VP at CSFB (an incredibly competitive position), he was the youngest ever at the time - and probably still holds that record. Despite this success, he walked away from the corporate world and went back to school to pursue the doctorates he earned in 2004. I'm still dying to ask him why, but haven't spoken to him since 2002. He's now an assistant professor at Boston College and, apparently, an avid publisher on topics near and dear to the financial world's heart (read: credit ratings and M&A deals).

I doubt that I interacted with Darren more than most students - he was young, charismatic, good-looking, and shockingly engaging when compared to his professorial peers. Since this was pre-Mystery Guest coming into my life, I can recall with humor the twinge of jealousy I felt when the pretty girl in class I had been working up the courage to talk to stayed late to chat with him. He was humble, without being shy or protective, and I recall his teaching style consistently involved personal recollections - in fact, that's all I remember from his class - stories of trips on private jets that ended in broken-down jeeps in the Colombian jungle so he could visit a facility that was part of a company pitching to be taken public. A tale of flying around the world to meet with private investment groups and pension funds to play golf and sell them on his firm's latest offering. The textbook material is lost, but the human element is impossible to forget.

However, Professor Kisgen's amazing stories aren't the topic of this blog post. Instead, I want to recount the first lesson - it might even have been the very first day of Macroeconomics (or was it micro?) - I picked up in his class.

Darren gave us all an assignment to do on that night and bring in the next day. I'll paraphrase the instructions as best I can remember:

Consider the major events in the world in the last few weeks and months (this was just after September 11, 2001) and make predictions about how the shifts in culture, society and government will impact the stock market. Write down three companies you'd either invest or sell short today based on these shifts in demographics, psychographics and economic behavior.

Caveat: These have to be creative choices - investing in Lockheed Martin because you think there will be a military buildup is already built into the market's intelligence, so try to choose companies that aren't obvious based on your own intuition.

Naturally, most of us failed pretty badly. I remember answers like shorting airlines (too obvious), buying auto stocks (the logic being that people would drive rather than fly, but this didn't take into account the rise in fuel prices, or the fact that people wouldn't be buying many more cars in a down economy just to drive long distances), buying News Corp (I think at the time, we debunked this one because the reasoning given was that people were obsessed with news, but this was a short term shift. If the answer given had been that the country's politics would swing to the right, it could have been a more compelling story), etc. I also remember having one of the few answers that was acceptable.

One of my company choices was Disney, not because people needed laughter or light-heartedness in a time of sadness, but because I had seen an article noting that in the few months following the WTC attacks, hanky-panky (by which I mean procreation) was at an all-time high. I predicted that the US might see a mini baby boom in the next 7-8 months and thus, companies catering to children and families would experience higher sales. This earned me my first bit of praise in the class, and today, for some inexplicable reason, it came flooding back into my memory when I read this - The Demographic Inversion of the American City.

Suddenly, I thought about how many similar articles I'd seen in the past 6 months, and how this trend perfectly fit Darren's "shift" concept and could be used as a way to predict businesses and industries that might profit from the change. This was the brilliant lesson he'd imparted - that recognizing opportunity doesn't require Warren Buffet's legendary sixth sense or the sprinkling of stock broker fairy dust, it just takes insight. By recognizing the changes in the world around us, we can reason our way into industries that will be appealing in the long run.

Just look how many "shifts" are taking place in the world right now:

Oil is unlikely to ever be a "cheap" energy source again - in fact, energy as a whole may be a major cost in every transaction from here on out.

The US is unlikely to be the sole "economic superpower" on the planet for much longer. China is already a behemoth, and entities like the EU, along with countries like Brazil, Russia, Canada, and potentially several of the oil-rich gulf states may be much more influential in the decades to come.

A renewed focus on energy savings combined with an idealism for urban life in the US could shift the demographic and political balance in the US.

The celebrity-obsession paradigm is making massive headway worldwide (not just in the US), as pop culture reaches global audiences through film, television, sports and art.

Population declines in several European countries could forecast economic problems or a re-opening of immigration policies to help combat aging populations relying on state-sponsored support.

The cost of entrepreneurship, thanks mostly to the web, means that far more small businesses will enter the high-tech economy in wealthier nations.

Advances in medicine and lifespan could mean a considerably higher percentage of a nation's population out of the workforce (living to 100+), yet relying on healthcare, investing time and effort in politics, and requiring more from pension programs and social security.

Traditional media forces like television, radio and newspapers are losing ground to web-based forms of consumption, leaving "mainstream" media and societal awareness and involvement in news more fragmented and less consistent.

Given all these potential "shifts" and hundreds of others, what types of industries and companies have a better shot at success? Which ones have the financial markets failed to consider as long-term benefactors? And, perhaps most importantly, which ones spell opportunity for web startups, Internet marketers and website developers?

The best part of all this is that as web entrepreneurs, we don't need to invest in a stock portfolio, we can put our shoulder to the grindstone and actually build it.

I thought I'd share a few of my thoughts on the subject and then turn it over to the comments for more:

Energy is expensive, travel is expensive and shipping is expensive. This sounds to me like more opportunity for local merchants of every variety will be using the web to reach audiences that will increasingly be searching for local goods. Go Etsy, Craigslist & Ebay.

Celebrity and pop culture obsession spells more visits and income spent on consumption of entertainment media. I was just talking to David Niu from BuddyTV.com this afternoon about how his market is an excellent place to be.

The growth of urban centers and relative shrinkage of suburbia and rural communities might suggest that big trips to the Home Depot and other home repair stores are out, while apartment, condo and townhouse essentials are in. I see good things in store for CB2, West Elm and IKEA.

If starting a business is cheap, more people are going to do it, and that means they need inexpensive business services accessible over the web... Maybe even help with SEO :-)

Your turn - where are the business opportunities on the web created in this market?

Ahhh a logic problem. As my mum would be glad to tell you, I have an annoyingly logical mind. So here's my train of thought:

What We Know

Energy is affordably expensive. It's not so bad that people won't drive (we still do on our side of the pond, and gas is way more costly for us than you). So people won't travel less, they just won't go as far when they do, and they'll grumble more. Think of the frog in hot water theory (drop a frog in hot water, he'll jump out. Put him in cold water and turn up the temperature, and he'll sit there, annoyed and complaining until he cooks to death).

PALPAS. Stands for People Are Lazy/People Are Stupid. They're also bored. Hence the fascination with celebrity culture. The masses would much rather watch other people live their lives than do it themselves.

Population density is going to skyrocket, whilst actual land consumed probably won't. Look at Dubai for an example of the city of the future. Skyscrapers that act as houses, shopping malls, high street retail centers and everything else. The buildings become self contained villiages, all on their own. Meanwhile, those who can't afford to live there, live in normal old-style housing. Think of the Brazilian cities, only a bit nicer.

There are more people. This means everything is amplified. Also, more of the existing population is getting online more frequently.

What This Means

People will shop more online. Less so with eBay type auction websites, but more with aggregators and trusted providers. Amazon, TripAdvisor, Google, TravelSupermarket.com etc

People will interact more online. See Facebook, Twitter, Ribbit and so on

PALPAS. Wall-e and The Caves of Steel might not be too far from the truth of the future. If people don't need to go anywhere to do anything, would we? Certainly some will. However, looking at society around, you can see two potential routes for humans to develop into. One upper class of people who enjoy being fit and doing stuff, and those who would rather watch Big Brother while it watches them (see Oliver Curry's ideas on human evolution).

The line between the real and digital world won't exist. The digital world will be real, if not in the physical sense. Some online games already have currency, mafia, guilds, communication channels and more. This will spill out into other areas over time.

This isn't really an insight, or a suggestion of where it would be good to be working right now, but I think that the web is in for a bit of a realignment (not quite a bubble bursting, but some basic economic rules hitting home).

I saw a post recently suggesting that the WSJ were mad not to ditch their subscription wall because they could make so much more money by optimising content & selling ads. And that may well be true. But the problem is that if everyone is moving towards free access to content with the idea of monetising through advertising, what happens when the ad money runs out? Doesn't a steady stream of cash coming directly from users seem like a nice thing to have?

Because it seems to me that there are only so many ad dollars/pounds/euros to go round. And everyone wants some. And as more & more people refuse to pay for content, expecting that they will get it for free, who pays the content producers? Because as much as I love YouTube, I'd rather watch a brilliantly produced professional documentary (which requires investment) than a video of a cat falling off a tree.

With Google already bigger than ITV in the UK (imagine Google being bigger than NBC), Google nearly bigger than all the British national newspapers put together, and those TV channels & newspapers having to invest millions in digital for returns that seem unlikely to ever match the rich pickings they've been used to, just where does that leave us?

To be honest I don't really know but what seems obvious is that things are not just going to carry on as they are (and all the Bubble 2.0 start-ups that think they will are dreaming).

Ciran, do you really think that the ad money will run out? I really don’t think so.

See in the 20th century so many media revolutions took place, newspapers, magazines, radio, TV, movies. But advertisement is still going on strong.

Yes in case a big war breaks out, or the whole world economy goes into slump, marketing spend may come down significantly. But then this is really manmade calamity which doesn’t happen that frequently. Also during such times naturally income through subscription will also go down.

Yes but one thing can happen. Print media can emerge as a big looser in this Free content on the Internet game. Even though newspapers and magazines charge subscription fees these are negligible when compared to the income from advertisement.

But since ROI on the online ads is relatively easy to measure, I think in future businesses will certainly allocate major portion of their budget for online advertisements.

Yes, for Brand building traditional forms of advertisement are necessary. But I think those shrewd marketing executives who measure everything will always strike balance between traditional advertisement and online advertisement.

Because it seems to me that there are only so many ad dollars/pounds/euros to go round. And everyone wants some.

Yes every one wants the ad money but only those who create quality content, useful websites and (ultimately) better ROI will get the money.

When I said the ad money runs out what I really meant (sorry, it probably wasn't very clear) was that there's only so much to go round. So, the question might better be phrased as:

What supports all these ad-based businesses when there is no more ad money to be had (because it's all been divvied up already with probably a lot of it going to Google)?

And regarding ROI on online ads, yes it can be obvious, but if you're looking at CTR on 'traditional' digital display it's so minor as to be ridiculous: a lot of publishers now sell such advertising on its branding abilities rather than its ROI, which of course pushes down the CPM, meaning the publisher makes less money.

You say:

Yes but one thing can happen. Print media can emerge as a big looser in this Free content on the Internet game.

I guess that my point is that I don't necessarily think that this is a good thing (and you could probvably add broadcast media to this as well). Because whilst I don't neccesarily agree with everything he says, Andrew Keen's Cult of the Amateur makes the point that whilst there's now loads of free content out there on places like YouTube and on blogs, a large proportion of it is crap.

Yes, but I'm spoiled by probably the greatest press of the English speaking world (for all the crap the tabloids pump out, The Guardian, Times & Telegraph are consistently excellent) and, thanks to that most un-free market concept, the licence fee, I have the BBC - worth it just for their radio output..

I understand your point but consider this in terms of the value of the medium and content: the sale of tangible products and services via the internet.

Total ad money available is a direct percentage of the revenues generated by the media buyers businesses. There is x total ad money available, based on the GDP's of the various economies. The internet can and probably will swallow up the lion's share of media spending, at least for one important sector - the small business.

I am paying my $49 per month, will be spending several $100 a day with Google, SEO, etc. for one reason only. I can't afford the old-style $10K + minimum for media placement, TV, print, etc. but I can pay as I go with Google, and still spend the same or more on ads and reach MILLIONS of people around the globe, scouring for my ideal customer niche, with a click, one person at a time paid for one person at a time. Therefore, I can actually compete with L'Oreal (effectively), which is only possible with the democratization of communications media brought about by the internet.

That has created true value in the world, so the total media dollars go up, way up. I am an American living in Holland, and selling my product to Benelux, UK, Ireland, and the US. Not possible in any reasonable fashion 20 years ago without a huge up-front investment. So, more commerce is in the future, meaning more total ad dollars possible, and only possible via systems like Google. However, there is a hard limit to ad dollars which is what you are pointing out - and it depends on the non-media business transactions happening (sale of goods like books, skin care (which is my business), food, wine, software, etc. and one thing that must adapt in the future are our antiquated notions of borders and customs. I would like to order Chinese food from China. Why not?

So, has the overall increase in GDP's brought about by the internet, as value has been enabled for the small businesses now being able to effectively advertise and compete, larger than what has been realized now by the revenue producers of the internet (mainly just Google, Yahoo, and a handful of others)?

I don't think so. I think we are talking trillions of value increase by the internet, and the true harvesting of this potential has only just begun. Therefore, much room for growth. I think another key change has to take place too: the shift from "interruptive" marketing to informational marketing. (I got this last concept from an Ian Lurie blogpst, but I can't find it... )

Interesting points and all true. BUT - the ad dollars/pounds I'm talking about are the ones that you state (quite reasonably) you can't afford. The businesses (especially content/service ones) that are popping up with aims of being ad funded will need the sort of advertising that is being eaten up by Google. And that is why I still think that there won't be enough to go round (or at least not enough to fund all the bubble 2.0 businesses that just seem to have assumed that it will keep on coming)

To be honest I don't really know but what seems obvious is that things are not just going to carry on as they are (and all the Bubble 2.0 start-ups that think they will are dreaming).

You're almost certainly right about that, but I don't think that the ad money will dry up. As the world population grows and standards of living rise on the average (hopefully) the advertisement pie is going to get bigger. BUT, as in almost all business sectors, as time goes by the Major Players will dominate the markets more and more. The add dollars that are accessible to mom and pop websites will be gobbled up by those with the resources to grow their market share, and small timers will be competing for scraps.

A lot of today's self employeed independants will end up working for peanuts for the big doggies, a few will BE big dogs.

See I disagree. Why? Well, because there are now so many more things relying on ad revenues than historically so I don't think that the growth in advertising will be able to keep up (again, not saying that it will dry up, just that there won't be enough to go round for everyone).

Also you say:

As the world population grows and standards of living rise on the average

Have you watched the news recently? Am I the only one who feels that if he saw a man walking down the street with one of those "The end is nigh" sandwich boards I'd probably ask him where he got it?

Have you watched the news recently? Am I the only one who feels that if he saw a man walking down the street with one of those "The end is nigh" sandwich boards I'd probably ask him where he got it?

I understand - If it's YOU that's underemployed then it's a an unfortunate downturn, if it's ME it's a catastrophic collapse. But even if a lot of us recently lost a lot of net worth and buying power it doesn't change the fact that an awful lot of people in the world are clawing their way into middle class. The Consumer Class that is. The target demographic for consumer marketing.

Cheer up, the economy will get better. Honestly, here in the States we needed this wake up call. Maybe we'll be more responsible with our good fortune in the future. Any thing's possible.

an awful lot of people in the world are clawing their way into middle class.

This observation really fits current economic scenario in India. Thanks to computers and information technology, quite a few people from my generation are earning salaries in the age of 25-26 which their fathers couldn’t even dream about after working for whole life. Flats, multiplexes, small cars (In India, owning a car used to be an ambition of lifetime. Not anymore), malls, McDonald’s, Pizza, continental food, etc are becoming part of normal middle class (traditionally a very conservative bunch) lifestyle.

Inflation is all time high. A month or so ago it touched around 11%. Real estate market is in boom. So much so that a single IPO of DLF (a real estate company) made K. P. Singh 8th richest man in whole world. Home loan rates are continuously increasing.

Life has become impossibly costly for those who don’t work in Computers and Information Technology sector.

The thing is I'm not just talking about the economy. Riots over food prices in developing countries. The UK's chief scientist predicting a 6 degree rise in temperatures (and resulting catastrophic consequences). Etc...

I'm actually not a pessimist, but I just feel that a lot of predictions are based on the assumption that, apart from the fact that there will now be a huge middle class in India & CHina, things are going to roll along as they always have done. I tend to doubt that.

The growing importance of internet business solutions (fancyspeak for online services) means countries with a high level of 'e-readiness' will have a competitive advantage. IBS already permeate our day-to-day lives at work, at home and on-the-go.

(Think about it - if 200 million Japanese on fibre optic cable take 1 second to download the latest Adobe plugin as opposed to 100 seconds per person in the US, how much collective productivity gain does that amount to?)

Think about it - if 200 million Japanese on fibre optic cable take 1 second to download the latest Adobe plugin as opposed to 100 seconds per person in the US, how much collective productivity gain does that amount to?

Totally agreed. Those Japanese are really intelligent people.

And yes in India it takes 1000 seconds to download the same plugin. Think of productivity. :-(

If starting a business is cheap, more people are going to do it, and that means they need inexpensive business services accessible over the web... Maybe even help with SEO :-)

The only thing I fear is that SEO is going to be expensive. Very expensive. As more and more website owners understand the importance of SEO, they all will start to use it. But then there are only 10 spots on the first SERP.

Most of the generalized niche area such as professional bogging (and mostly every thing related to web design and SEO), weight loss, digital cameras and photograph, etc. are overcrowded. All most all of the top websites in highly profitable niches are using some sort of SEO.

So what happens after a 2-3 years down the line, when thousands of website competing for same set of key phrases have near perfect site structures, well structured content with key phrases in right places, proper internal linking? Of course off-page optimization will become the crucial differentiating factor. Which means: more quality links. This leads to better widgets and tools (More programming. Experienced professional developers. More Cost.), creative link bait (highly experienced creative SEM experts. More Cost.), Best of the best content (One of the toughest task and again costly if you are going to hire experienced professional writers) and (unfortunately) More paid links.

All this may lead to a time where in terms of ROI, SEO will be almost as expensive as PPC (which will in turn become more expensive).

Result. Smaller traditional business with smaller marketing budgets will not be able to derive any benefits of the low cost business acquisition through Search Marketing. Of course some of the smaller businesses will reinvent themselves in local web markets through channels such as ebay (or something which works in similar principals.)

Outsourcing will become inevitability if you want to stay competitive in the market. So online services which allow finding freelancers and business partners over the web will become more important.

Today majority of websites are information providers. But with changing times, providing only information will not be enough. There will have to be interactive tools which allow the consumption of information in a meaningful way which leads to business insight.

I took Rand's comments on starting businesses to mean in other, perhaps niche, areas than are currently offered on the internet. Perhaps this is just because I have a start up that targets the world of competitive swimming. While SEO is expensive for a start up that consists of swim coaches and one developer, it is still cheap when compared to 'regular' businesses. I think there are thousands of similar opportunities out there to deliver services over the internet in new and innovative ways that will make a profit. I agree with the comment that free is a marketing strategy and anyone who went through the original boom and bust (or took finance classes) knows to have a solid revenue stream and focus on profits to succeed.

Quite a different and interesting conversation than what we normally have on here.

The things that jump out at me:

1) The death of traditional media delivery. No more (or very little) CDs, DVDs, Newspapers, Magazines, Movie Theaters, etc. We're only years (months?) away from being able to download ALL we want onto our iPod, DVR, Game Console, or USB key. Our playlists will evolve into personal media servers - hopefully accessible anywhere through something like Slingbox.

The only traditional media delivery left in 10 years will either be very cheap or very high-end and they'll all be niche.

2) Online worlds. I've read dozens and dozens of scholarly articles that dive deep into the sociological and economic aspects of things like Second Life and World of Warcraft. I don't think any of the articles have even scratched the surface. There is a generation of kids growing up on these things and it is going to give them a paradigm that we can only hope to imagine.

3) The continuing emergence of completely outsourced, completely virtual organizations. Telecommuting is such a small step in the evolution of the workplace, and in some cases it is even a step-backward in thinking.

The idea isn't to do your normal work for your normal company but just from a different location.

The idea is to do new work and collaborate differently with not only your normal company, but your own micro-business, two guys in Pakistan who have a start-up and an online school in South Korea.

Being completely virtual and completely global and having access to the best talent in the world is going to be the new way of working.

Some really interesting thinking here Vin - the only thing I'd say is that I simply don't think that in ten years all traditional media will essentially be dead (no matter how many times I push Epic 2015): I still think that many of these mediums have too much to offer for a variety of reason. Will they be changed beyond belief? Quite possibly. Dead? I tend to doubt it.

But then, bizarrely for someone doing what I do, I'm actually quite a Luddite - I just bought a load of vinyl records for goodness sake!

As much as I proclaim the imminent demise of CDs, DVDs, etc. - I hope my beloved books never go away.

They will though. Some already are gone - encyclopedias for example. When someone comes up with a better interface device books will go the way of the 8 track. Think of lounging on the beach reading a book on the inside of your sun glasses. Or, something like that.

The other thing that strikes me about all of these predictions is that they assume that churning out plastic goods that rely, predominantly, on power generated by fossil fuels will continue to be affordable/acceptable.

How is a Kindle, a huge chunk of plastic, better than a book which can be easily recycled, passed on, re-sold, etc..?

There's also the element of durability:here in the UK in the early 80s there was a project called the Domesday Project, which aimed to do exactly what William The Conqueror had done almost a thousand years before - catalogue everything in Britain. It cost a fortune & was all digital. But there was one problem (which The Observer newspaper uncovered):

16 years after it was created, the 2.5 million [$4.3 million] BBC Domesday Project has achieved an unexpected and unwelcome status: it is now unreadable.... The special computers developed to play the 12-inch video discs of text, photographs, maps and archive footage of British life are-quite simply-obsolete.

And the original 900 year old Domesday Book? You can still see it in the National Archives.

I'm just not convinced that e-books will do what things like iPods etc.. have done.

plastic goods that rely, predominantly, on power generated by fossil fuels will continue to be affordable/acceptable.

I agree with you. I love to read, and I probably spend more money on books than on all other media combined. But, I'm a dinosaur.

However, I doubt that it's more sustainable or environmentally sound to print books on paper than it is to publish electronically. Maybe someday we will reach the pinnacle of convergence where one portable device handles all media, data, and communication so well that it doesn't need to be replaced or updated every 10 months. Like they use in "Red Mars" - Kim Stanley Robinson.

I told her that lounging around on the beach with a laptop (or Kindle) is never going to be the same as having an actual book.

True. But these days I find myself reading more and more on screen than on paper. A lot more convenient. Instant access to dictionary. I can copy pate and take notes. Make the text as big as I want. I am converted.

I too am a book lover and lover of fiction in general. But I am really skeptical about future of print media.

Update:

One more point. Print is not searchable. (And if there weren’t any search engines, probably we weren’t discussing this here on SEOMoz.) But on a serious note I really dream about the day when I will be able to summon relative information just at the speed of thought.

Agreed, I love to sit down with a warm drink and a good book, its one the few ways I get to truely relax, to completely lose myself in a good story and then look up at the clock 300 pages and 4 hours later and say, "oh crap! I didn't make dinner yet!" :-)

The US is unlikely to be the sole "economic superpower" on the planet for much longer. China is already a behemoth, and entities like the EU, along with countries like Brazil, Russia, Canada and potentially several of the oil-rich gulf states may be much more influential in the decades to come.

Don't forget the impact of India. They have a middle class larger than the entire population of the United States. Take into account that in addition to sheer man-power they also have a better education system (with some notable exceptions) and it is hard to see the United States maintaining this position for much longer.

Take into account that in addition to sheer man-power they also have a better education system (with some notable exceptions) and it is hard to see the United States maintaining this position for much longer.

A better education system? I doubt. I am a (failed) product of it. (Dropped out of college to pursue my open source project. How silly I was?) One advantage of our Indian education system is our ability to mass produce technicians who can speak (or at least write) good English. But I wish there was individual attention and creative syllabus that (I hear) Americans have. Here the shear population burden makes that impossible.

I really wonder when people in developed economies express concern about outsourcing to developing countries. 21st Century is all about innovation and knowledge products. As long as Americans maintain their innovative edge, nobody can beat them. As far as Indians are concerned I am just disappointed when I see that there are very few Indians (compared to our total tech population) involved in really innovative things happening on the Internet.

As long as Americans maintain their innovative edge, nobody can beat them.

The thing is there is a small but influential group in America that have been steadily dismantling our public education system for the past 30 years or so. To the extent that many of us who have the option choose to educate our children at home - which in itself somewhat erodes the public system.

Eventually the declining quality of American education may pass the (hopefully) improving educational opportunities in countries like India.

I really appreciate the opportunity to interact with people from all over the world like this though.

" As far as Indians are concerned I am just disappointed when I see that there are very few Indians (compared to our total tech population) involved in really innovative things happening on the Internet "

Pritam, your confidence has disappointed me more than anything. No wonder you used the word 'failed product'. If you really look around you will find many Indians holding key positions and working silently behind the show at Google, Microsoft, Yahoo & Adobe etc. As far as prominance in the SEO industry is concerned, I agree to you that things are a little offtrack at the moment, but I see no reason why we wont pick up or can't innovate. It's just a matter of time...when.

That’s the problem. Most of the brilliant Indian minds choose to work in big MNCs and work behind the scenes. At the same time look at the Indian big three of IT industry, Infosys, TCS and Wipro. All of them are catering to tried and tested Enterprise and Banking sector.

I was referring to this problem of sticking to tried and tested and not venturing in new exciting opportunities that have opened up with widespread use of Internet.

You have a point dude, innovation is the key. But at the same time, Innovation in Indian IT industry will seldom come from the Indian IT giants. It has to be from the bottom level where smaller agencies innovate to try and catch up with the International Market and I know some agencies who are following the right path.

I can't help but recall a Charles Darwin quote in reflection to this post:

"It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change."

As Internet culture, commerce, perception, and even P2P interaction evolves, we will inevitably face the paradigm Vingold mentioned above:

"There is a generation of kids growing up on these things and it is going to give them a paradigm that we can only hope to imagine."

This opens the door to an unfathomable volume of opportunity, both in business and, generally speaking, in the way people communicate.

We've all experienced advances in business operations and communication (both personal and professional) that simply didn't exist ten years ago (even 1 year ago!). As SEO, SEM, and even PPC shift to accomodate a more dynamic and expanisve business culture, we can surely expect to see dramatic growth in digital marketing as an industry and as a common practice for succesful businesses. To ignore what's coming, or rather, what's happening, is just plain ridiculous. Whether it's a shift in the way people consume energy, conduct businesses, or buy consumer goods, the bottom line is...any "strong" or "intelligent" business owner must wise up to survive the fundamental digital evolution taking place.

I think there are loads of opportunities, especially with the rising cost of energy. <brain dump>

Less communiting means more working from home, giving opportunities for companies who work in networking, fully integrating the home and the office.

I'd like to see someone put on bus services for commuters with full wi-fi access and work spaces. Leave your car at home, work on the commute itself with full VPN access and voip.

I think if people are working from home then there are opportunities for porn sites to make more money.

If more couples work from home then there may be opportunities for online relationship advice or SEO work with divorce lawyers (cynical, I know).

If more people work from home then household energy bills go up, so energy saving devices or advice becomes applicable.

in the house alone working - instant messenger application and social networking usage should go up, so opportunities for creating killer apps.

I think if people work from home more then there is more chance of those who want pets to get them, as they are in to look after them all day - it also gets them out of the house if the pet needs walking. So pet accessories or petshop sites and animal advice sites could take off

World is flat. With that premise, opportunities are endless, whether you live in Seattle USA or Kathmandu Nepal! Innovation is the key; it’s the reason why countries in Western Europe and North America are "developed" economies. There are many other geopolitical reasons, but lets not get into that. Education is a key element that drives innovation. Technological advances has played and will keep on playing major role in driving progress for long time to come. May be I am naive, in my opinion from a global perspective, I think there are two big opportunities that one can tap into with an advent of Information Technology: Education and Microfinance. There is always a need for sustained education and educated people are always in a look out for investment.

I wonder if it was this post sitting at the back of my mind last night, but I had a conversation along very similar lines with my girlfriend, who is a magazine editor. We were talking about whether there was some combination of what she knows (about expert journalism) and what I know (about the web and technology) that is still being missed by offline and online media.

There is an interesting change where Internet services are becoming more global as the US gains some equals on the economic side, but services requiring physical presence (e.g. food shopping) are becoming more local as transportation costs rise.

If I had to guess one area of business, then translation services would be a good one to be in as large businesses want to address local markets and want to deal with each other. It'll be a long time before we have a universal language.

First, being able to speak GOOD Chinese and English is huge...there are so many flipping jobs for my type here in Taiwan and in China...become fluent in Chinese in the next 2 years and you still should have many opportunities.

Second:

@"It'll be a long time before we have a universal language."

Thanks to Great Britian and the USA, the universal language is English. Here are places I have personally been:

-you can pretty much get around Taiwan in just english

-english is widely spoken in the philipines

-in hong kong I would speak to people in Mandarin and they would say, please speak to me in English b/c my Mandarin isn't very good

-many people in croatia speak great english

-if you are on a surf trip in Costa Rica, you dont need to know any spanish

And these are just places I have personally been...

The only exception I have found is Japan...getting around there in English is a pain in the ass...thankfully I met some people from China who could help me get around.

Nonetheless, universiality of English still hasn't stopped me from learning fluent Spanish and Chinese

Being based in the UK, I have definitely benefited from English being the universal second/third language, but I would argue that if you are providing local services around the world, those services will want to be in the local's first language.

@I would argue that if you are providing local services around the world, those services will want to be in the local's first language.

Totally agree 100%

But for IRL, when a frenchman and a japanese person meet for business, they speak in english.

I am making a site for locating all the organic restaurants in the whole world so I can eat organic wherever I travel! w000h000! And I will put parts of the site in Mandarin and Spanish...and then my g/f can help me do some swedish parts, and my other friend can help me do some German parts...its an international life!

The proper term for "universal language" is Lingua Franca. But language is alive so there's never going to be a universal language. It will grow, live, and change with the current living generation.

Mandarin Chinese is Lingua Franca for Mainland and Taiwan. But if you are in Taiwan, as you know, there's Taiwanese (Minan) that is also spoken. My mother and I break out in Taiwanese sometimes. It's great for it to be natural.

I'm teaching myself to read and write Chinese. You think there's room for a Taiwan-born, naturalize US citizen to work in Taiwan? Or be a US contact for Taiwan companies? What kinds of opportunities are there that you speak of?

My teenagers are the online world generation and it is fascinating to watch them. My son uses VOIP on a headset with all his pals to coordinate their actions on raiding parties in virtual worlds. He spends real money (earned babysitting) to purchase virtual property and setup virtual businesses. He has been scammed online and also made friends on the other side of the world. I would say that the line between real and virtual is blurred but I think he would say that virtual is real, just different. I do make sure he gets unplugged and does sports and 'normal' teenage activities, but I have to say that given a choice of having him out at a party on Friday night or home online that home online is certainly safer from alcohol and drugs.

Lots of very detailed comments, but Ill just pitch in our companies experience with this market.

Our primary market is definitely local business looking for a quality website. Since for most small companies, developing a website is an internal affair, right now that they have more down time they have the "Hey, we need to update the website / get it redone" itch.

SEO retainers have had a minor pinch. Some clients have asked to delay a month here or there, which we are fine with as its better than losing the client all together.

Our few online retail clients are seeing an increase in both traffic and sales. Although the conversion rates are dropping (a mix of "I don't want to drive to the store...." and "I don't know if I have the money for that right now"). I do know that not ALL e-commerce sites in our market are up, but our clients are =P.

Lastly we are seeing an increase in clients from the big city (we are about 1 hour out of LA) because some business are trying to cut costs by finding more rural firms that they can still drive out to meet / screen.

Excellent concept Rand. I know i'm a few months behind on this post, and within those few months a lot has changed...Actually the price of oil has dropped...and I'm not quite sure that's a good thing.

More to the point, I've noticed a huge trend towards online coupons: http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=coupons%2Cdiscounts%2C&geo=US&cmpt=q and will start focusing my business more towards these trends.

Did not expect to read an article like this on here. That being said, I love the approach to looking at the world to figure out where opportunites can be found.

As gas prices rise im sure we will see businesses focusing more on local markets, more local farmers markets, more living within walking distance to work/shop or public transit, and people actually getting to know their neighbors.

Great article to read - that link that is. I always like a good, intelligent breakdown of socioeconomic shifts. It really is a good point in the article that increasingly, urban real estate is growing in expense, via gentrification. NYC is a great example of that. Closer to home, Philadelphia has been driving away old neighborhoods that were historicially working-class areas. The "Loft District", in the northeast area of Philly, used to be filled with factories, warehouses, and other industrial facilities. Near the shipyards, the old Navy shipyard has been turned into a business park. Lofts, condos, loft condos and so on get built (also speculated upon) and bring in new urban residents. That also helps increase tax base, in the long run. For those in urban real estate, the trend has been Baby Boomers and Empty Nestors looking to downsize from suburban homes but still stay active with amenities within walking distance.

One can imagine that from here on out, if the trend continues, the consumer power will be heavily shifted to urban areas. Indeed online purchasing can increase as well as the online purchases and in-store pick up. Transportation energy usuage may change, but urban energy usuage would go up - and that means coal since most US urban centers are not close enough to wind or solar powerplants. Water will be another big issue. I would look at urban infrastructure companies for long. For the short, ecommerce will continue to grow. But in the long, the type of ecommerce may shift. In the long, medical would also be important. If influx of urban residences increase due to more Baby Boomers and Empty Nestors downsizing, their medical needs will be very important as they continue to age.

It's fun to read these kinds of articles, catch info on CNBC, and really let the imagination run wild as to the possibilities.

As telecommuting becomes increasingly common, i'd hate to be in the child care market. Perhaps it would be wise to invest in products which can entertain the little buggers while dad/mom try to get some work done. vSmile?

Have you ever tried to work at home with a child? Even when resorting to TV to keep them occupied it doesn't work. Having to interrupt a business call to mediate a fight between brother and sister as to which video to watch does not make a good impression. Thankfully my children are now teenagers and everyone has their own computer and one even drives so now I can work at home in peace when I need to but I think childcare will still be needed. The new parents today are just as obsessed with providing the best and will be looking for that nanny or daycare that can teach their little darling fluent Chinese and Spanish at the same time.