Demand Spur

The future of the uranium mining industry will be largely dependent on the price of the commodity and the profitability of uranium mines, while demand for uranium in nuclear power stations and potentially for nuclear weapons remains the main driver for the commodity.

This is according to North-West University Mine Water Research Group head and geography and environmental studies chair Professor Frank Winde, who spoke at the Nuclearisation of Africa symposium in Kempton Park, on the East Rand, in November.

He stressed that the mining of uranium must be analysed in a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis, which had to include all externalised costs, such as its impact on the environment and the health of local communities.

“Consultation must be undertaken widely and not only with the mining industry and scientists, but also with communities that will be affected by uranium mining. There also has to be complete transparency about the details of the development and operation of uranium mining operations with all stakeholders,” Winde contended.

When the issue of uranium mining was being discussed, all parties needed to avoid lobbyism, taking stances based on ideology and raw emotions to ensure that sober, rational conclusions can be reached.

“Parties must present track records and scientific facts, instead of relying on models, predictions and promises to support their arguments. Most importantly, everyone should not discount long-term costs for short-term benefits,” Winde reasoned.

Global nuclear generation capacity is set to grow from its current capacity of 379 gigawatt electric (GWe) to 552 GWe by 2035, which could increase the demand for uranium significantly, says the World Nuclear Association (WNA) in its 2015 Nuclear Fuel report.

WNA director-general Agneta Rising adds that nuclear electricity output is set to increase at a faster rate over the next five years than was the case for the past 20 years.

According to the WNA, there are currently 438 operable reactors around the world, 65 reactors in the construction phase and 165 reactors in the planning phase.

The WNA notes that most of the new demand for uranium will come from Asian countries, including but not limited to China and India, hich are spending about $800-billion on reactors in a push for new power plants with lower carbon emissions.

The Nuclear Energy Association states in its 2014 ‘Uranium: Resources, Production and Demand’ publication that, should nuclear capacity be expanded to between 399 GWe and 678 GWe by 2035, uranium requirements will increase from 59 170 t of uranium metal at the end of 2013 to between 72 205 t and 122 150 t by 2035.

JSE-listed investment holding company Oakbay Resources & Energy is also upbeat about the long-term prospects for the uranium industry.

“It is estimated that uranium demand will grow to 266-million pounds a year by 2030, up from the current 140-million pounds a year. Uranium prices are also forecast to rise by 65% to 85% by 2017, as a result of an expected increase in demand and potential supply shortages,” said Oakbay CEO Varun Gupta during a site visit to the company’s Shiva uranium mine, in the North West province of South Africa, in September. He explained that uranium demand was predominantly driven by its use in nuclear power generation, pointing out that there were about 355 operating nuclear power plants worldwide with 45 to 70 under construction and another 366 either in planning or at proposal stage worldwide.

“The 391 operating reactors – excluding those defined as being in long-term outage – are 47 fewer than the 2002 peak of 438, while the total installed capacity peaked in 2010 at 368 GWe before declining by 8% to 337 GWe, which is comparable to levels last seen two decades ago.

“Annual nuclear electricity generation reached 2 410 TWh in 2014, which is a 2.2% increase over the previous year, but 9.4% below the historic peak in 2006,” the report states.

Creamer Media’s Research Channel Africa’s ‘2015 Uranium’ report states that, although the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident has affected nuclear power projects and policies in some countries, nuclear power remains a key part of the global energy mix. This bodes well for uranium demand, which is expected to continue to increase for the foreseeable future.

The report says several governments have plans for new nuclear power, with big nuclear expansion forecast in China and India. Japan’s nuclear restart will also boost investor confidence in the long-term viability of the global nuclear power industry.

The uranium market is expected to be “adequately supplied” from primary and secondary sources up to 2025, provided that all mines currently under development or planned enter service.

However, beyond 2025, the WNA states that further production will be required to meet nuclear energy demand.

Meanwhile, speaking at the Nuclearisation of Africa symposium, international civil society organisation Mineral Policy Institute deputy chairperson Mia Pepper said that, since the Fukushima incident, the uranium price had fallen sharply from around $100/lb to as low as $25/lb and, at the time, was hovering at about $36/lb.

She noted that Australia possessed 35% of the world’s uranium resources and had three operational uranium mines. These include Ranger mine, in the Northern Territory, and the Olympic Dam and Beverley mines, both in South Australia.

Other uranium mines were shut down, owing to low uranium prices.

“Uranium production in Australia in 2015 declined to 5 897 t of uranium, which is a ten-year low. According to Australian research company IBISWorld’s March 2015 market research report, Australia’s uranium mines employed only 987 people, with a negative yearly growth rate of 2.4% in the sector,” stated Pepper.

She commented that the share value of uranium miners in 2015 declined significantly. Uranium miner Energy Resources of Australia posted a half-year net loss of $255-million in 2015, including write-downs of $197-million, while Africa-focused uranium miner Paladin Energy posted a full-year loss of $368.8-million in 2015.

“Several uranium projects have been

delayed or abandoned. Expansion plans at the Ranger and Olympic Dam mines have been put on hold as well,” Pepper highlighted.

Further, she noted that local communities in Australia had become increasingly vocal in their opposition to the establishment of

uranium mines with companies, such as French nuclear vendor Areva having been forced to abandon uranium projects as a result. “We have also seen in Alice Springs that uranium miners Cameco and Paladin were forced to withdraw plans to develop uranium mines in the region, owing to local opposition,” Pepper pointed out.

Health and Environmental Concerns

French independent nuclear watchdog group Commission for Independent Research and Information radiation laboratory director Bruno hareyron stated during his address at the Nuclearisation of Africa symposium that uranium waste material was often highly radioactive because it contained pieces of uranium ore.

“The concentration of uranium in uranium waste rocks can typically be 100 times above the normal concentration levels of uranium that is found in the ground.”

Additionally, Society of Rural Physicians of Canada member Dr Dale Dewar noted during her presentation at the symposium that uranium was a heavy metal with the potential to cause a spectrum of adverse health effects ranging from renal failure and diminished bone growth to damage to peoples’ DNA, or deoxyribonucleic acid.

She explained that, because uranium possessed chemical toxicity and radioactivity, assessing the relative contributions of each to its toxic profile was difficult.

However, Dewar stated that the effects of low-level radioactivity included cancer, shortening of life and subtle changes in fertility or viability of offspring, as determined from animal studies and data on Hiroshima and Chernobyl survivors.

“These effects can be delayed for decades or for generations and are not detected in short-term toxicological studies,” she added.

Dewar highlighted that uranium was chemically toxic to the proximal tubules of the kidney, although the damage was reversible, at least in the early stages.

Niger nongovernmental organisation Aghirin'man president Almoustapha Alhacen said during his presentation at the Nuclearisation of Africa symposium on the impact of uranium mining in Niger, that independent campaigning organisation Greenpeace Africa and other International organisations had been reporting regularly on how Areva’s uranium mines and mills had “endangered the people and their environment” in the country.

Niger is the world’s fourth-largest uranium-producing country and, in 2014, retained its position as Africa’s largest uranium producer. The country’s production was 4 057 t in 2014, compared with 4 518 t in 2013.

French nuclear energy giant Areva is a shareholder of the two long-standing uranium mining companies, Société des Mines de l’Aïr (Somaïr) and Compagnie Minière d’Akouta (Cominak).

The Somaïr mine, in the Arlit region, and the Cominak mine, in the Akouta region, were established at the end of the 1960s and both of them are nearing the end of their operational life span. In 2014, Somaïr and Cominak produced 2 331 t and 1 501 t of uranium respectively. Areva and Niger signed a strategic partnership agreement in May 2014, which among other things included a five-year renewal of Somaïr’s and Cominak’s mining agreements.

Alhacen lamented that the exploitation of uranium in Niger since 1968 had serious consequences for the environment, which included depletion of ground water, disappearance of the existing vegetation cover, the total deformation of the landscape with the formation of extracted rock mountains, loss of wildlife, and the dispersion of radiologically contaminated scrap metal and materials in the city of Arlit and the rest of the country.

He also stressed that diseases among uranium mineworkers and local community members were rife, which included congenital malformations and gynecological problems. These diseases Alhacen attributed to contamination from uranium toxicity and radioactivity.

FSE in the press

As early as 1987, the US Environmental Protection Agency recognised that “.....problems related to mining waste may be rated as second only to global warming and stratospheric ozone depletion in terms of ecological risk. The release to the environment of mining waste can result in profound, generally irreversible destruction of ecosystems.”

The expansion of a mining project that cuts through a protected water system and a proposed wildlife migration corridor in North West province has been given the go-ahead by environmental authorities.
The Federation for a Sustainable Environment (FSE), a group of community-based civil society organisations, has appealed the authorisation – arguing that “environmental decisions must achieve a balance between environmental and socio-economic developmental considerations through the concept of sustainable development”.
Read the full artiicle, including comment from the community, on OXPECKERS. Documentation is also available on the site.

A pioneering conservation plan to create a wildlife corridor linking the Pilanesberg National Park and the Madikwe Game Reserve appears to have collapsed because of mining and farming pressure in the North West Region.

The Federation for a Sustainable Environment (FSE) has appealed the environmental authorisation for the expansion of the mining operations of Pilanesberg Platinum Mines within a highest biodiversity sensitive area and a national freshwater ecosystem priority area, which the FSE alleges, will adversely impact on the functionality and viability of the proposed Heritage Park.
It is envisioned that the proposed Heritage Park will establish the third largest conservation estate of about 270 000ha to ultimately create a migratory corridor for bigger mammals by combining the Pilanesberg National Park with the Madikwe Game Reserve.

WESSA paid tribute to a wide range of outstanding environmental achievements with the presentation of the organisation’s Annual Awards. These Awards were presented at the organisation’s 90th AGM, and Mariette Liefferink of the Federation for a Sustainable Environment was one of the recipients.

The World Health Organization is collecting hair samples west of Johannesburg to see if residents near South Africa’s biggest city are suffering from excessive uranium pollution due to ore dumps from 130 years of gold mining.

The future of the uranium mining industry will be largely dependent on the price of the commodity and the profitability of uranium mines, while demand for uranium in nuclear power stations and potentially for nuclear weapons remains the main driver for the commodity.

Mariette Liefferink, CEO of the Federation for a Sustainable Environment, a influential organisation in the mining sector. Liefferink speaks on Classic FM about Acid Mine Drainage.
To listen, visit this link: http://www.classicfm.co.za/classic-lifestyle/podcasts/2016/january/19-january-2016/acid-mine-drainage/view

South Africa is at the transition point of “peak water.” This is the moment when the economy transitions from a demand-driven state to a supply-constrained state. Peak water means that supply will be limited. This will affect economic growth and may result in social instability.

THE CRIMINAL investigation and the draft charges initiated against Village Main Reef for alleged contraventions of environmental legislation at Blyvooruitzicht (Blyvoor) mine outside Carletonville are among many legacy issues facing the mining industry today.

Lucas Misapitso casually holds a handful of poisoned earth in his hands. Behind him, the forlorn shacks of Tudor Shaft huddle helplessly against a toxic mountain of mine tailings that splits them in two.

The hazardous mining by-product raises two questions – who’s to blame and who should pay.
The acid mine drainage crisis is going to cost someone a lot of money, but probably not the people who caused it. The “polluter pays” principle was next to impossible to apply to the acid mine drainage problem in a retrospective way, said Marius Keet, chief director for mine water management at the department of water and sanitation.

The Federation for a Sustainable Environment is proud to announce the launch of the booklet titled “Rehabilitation of Mine Contaminated Eco-Systems. A Contribution to a Just Transition to a Low Carbon Economy to Combat Unemployment and Climate Change” by Mariette Liefferink of the Federation for a Sustainable Environment (FSE). The booklet was commissioned by the Alternative Information and Development Centre (AIDC) in collaboration with the Friedrick Ebert Stiftung.

Last week, the coalition of eight civil society and community organisations that has been resisting the proposed coal mine inside a protected area and strategic water source area in Mpumalanga launched further proceedings in the Pretoria High Court.

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