UFC 136 preview: Edgar vs. Maynard finally could have some resolution

Had UFC president Dana White’s ire with MMA judging not been cut with sympathy for Maynard (10-0-1 MMA, 8-0-1 UFC), Frankie Edgar (13-1-1 MMA, 8-1-1 UFC) might be taking on Melvin Guillard, or Clay Guida, or any number of lightweights now stacked in queue for a shot at the belt.

Maynard, though, is very convincing when he’s upset. And there was no sadder person after UFC 125 when the promotion nixed an immediate rematch following his confounding draw with Edgar that night. So White gave him another shot, “The Bully” literally said “I love you,” and here we are.

So here’s Maynard’s last chance: a rematch against Edgar in the main event of UFC 136, which takes place Saturday at Houston’s Toyota Center. The main card airs live on pay-per-view, and a two-bout preliminary card airs on Spike TV while the remainder of the fights stream live on Facebook.

Also taking co-headliner duties is UFC featherweight champ Jose Aldo, who for the second time this year is the two of a one-two title fight punch. The champ meets perennial title challenger Kenny Florian, who hopes that a third bid for a belt is a charm.

Speaking of two-title nights, it’s a rare time when a duo of important matches populates a UFC pay-per-view. The promotion did it earlier this year for the banner UFC 129 event (Georges St-Pierre vs. Jake Shields and Aldo vs. Mark Hominick), but the sheer number of events needing viable headliners makes one title fight the norm for the headlining spot. A three title-fight night is the buffalo nickel of events; UFC 33 resulted in disaster when a trio of title bouts all ended in decisions and ran over the promotion’s alloted time slot on pay-per-view.

Maynard’s fight with Edgar, in fact, represents a rubber match of sorts. “The Bully” outwrestled the current champ for a unanimous-decision victory more than three years ago at UFC Fight Night 13. Then came the split draw of UFC 125 in which one judge scored the bout for Edgar 48-46 while the second gave the same score in favor of Maynard. A third judge called it even at 47-47.

The decision reignited a long-running debate about MMA scoring. Judges agreed on rounds one, two and four. They awarded Maynard the first by a margin of 10-8 for his dominant performance, and they awarded Edgar the second and fourth for a tremendous comeback from the brink of a knockout loss out of the gate. They disagreed on rounds three and five, when Maynard surged back after nearly gassing out in his brush with victory.

The UFC’s official statistics keeper, Fight Metric, had Edgar leading by the end of the fight in significant standing strikes (95 to 71), total standing strikes (97 to 93), and takedowns (27 percent to 18 percent completed). On the ground, Maynard led in significant strikes (eight to three) and total strikes (30 to three), improved his position on the ground 1-0, and was also ruled the winner for his total offensive output.

The tallies were all the ingredients for a good debate. The rematch itself proved to be the catalyst for another problem, as well. When a third meeting was delayed at UFC 130 due to injuries to both fighters, a bevy of promising lightweights made strong cases for getting the next title shot. Guillard, Guida, Ben Henderson and Gilbert Melendez (currently the Strikeforce lightweight champion) all sport win streaks that make them logical candidates for the job.

Until Saturday’s lightweight title fight happens, though, they are in purgatory. They’re also not waiting. Guillard meets Joe Lauzon on the first main card bout at UFC 136 while Guida and Henderson serve as the co-main event of UFC on FOX 1 next month. Melendez, meanwhile, is set to defend his title against Jorge Masvidal in the main event of a Strikeforce event slated for Dec. 17 (and there’s ongoing debate as to the hows and whens of his crossover to the industry-leading promotion).

That’s why Edgar vs. Maynard IV is not happening any time soon, per White, if Edgar evens the score. There are just too many fighters lying in wait.

Maynard, for one, is hoping to end the trilogy with two wins under his belt. He’s been dying to correct the mistake he made early on in trying to finish Edgar too soon. This week, he’s been a man of few words.

“The draw, that hurt a little bit, so I’m pumped to have it again, and I can’t wait for the 8th,” he said.

Edgar obviously erred in his chance to even the score, so he’s looking to come in with a better game plan this time around. Thankfully, he has a lot on which to improve.

“It benefits you because you just got done with the guy, and he’s fresh on your mind,” he said. “You have a lot of situations to base your training camp off of.”

Is the fight going to be much different than before, though? Edgar’s fast hands were his greatest weapon the second time around, and he was able to stuff several takedowns from the bigger Maynard. “The Bully” has the size advantage, as before, and a proven ability to test the champ’s chin. If you erase the punches he took in the first round, it’s not hard to imagine Edgar replicating the quick-in, quick-out combinations that have worked so well for him against bigger opponents. Maynard, then, is going to need to be better at cornering the champ and transitioning better for takedowns. Still, the two are very evenly matched when it comes to opposing skill sets.

So by all indications, it could be another long night. Hopefully, though, a more decisive one. We’re all waiting here.

Can Florian’s experience stifle Aldo’s ferocity?

Can you find a man more qualified on paper to take the title of Jose Aldo (19-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) than Kenny Florian (15-5 MMA, 12-4 UFC)? Didn’t think so.

Florian has faced more high-level competition than any of the foes the current champ has chopped down. He’s a two-time contender in the lightweight division, a finisher in 10 of his 16 octagon appearances, and widely considered to be among the most talented fighters in the UFC. At least, when it comes to non-title fights.

You see, it’s Florian’s fourth chance at a UFC belt. A title has eluded him three occasions: once against Sean Sherk, once against B.J. Penn, and once in a No. 1 contender’s bout with Maynard.

White has said Florian “chokes” when the title is in reach; “The Ultimate Fighter 1″ finalist comes up with weird game plans that ultimately sink him.

Florian has now reinvented himself as a featherweight, and it’s likely his last stand as a potential champion. At 35, he’s doesn’t have the time to hack through the lightweight wilderness, or God forbid, try his hand in the welterweight class. This is it. And if he can’t get past Aldo, he’ll encounter significant difficulty in convincing White to give him another title shot in any weight class.

That’s some weight on your shoulders. Add to that Aldo’s reputation as a destroyer and pound-for-pound great, and you have a tough hill to climb.

“Generally, I don’t think he’s faced a guy that’s as well-rounded and as experienced as I am, and that’s what I’m going to bring in there,” Florian said.

Aldo, though, may be dealing with his own weighty issues. A video that surfaced recently showed him struggling mightily to make the featherweight limit for his first title defense at UFC 129 against Hominick. That performance was widely seen as less than stellar; in fact, Hominick left the bout as a favorite for his late-fight rally. The champ said a new weight regimen was the culprit for the bad performance, but he acknowledged a day was coming when he will have to move up to lightweight.

Of course, Aldo has denied there’s any issues with the scale leading into Saturday’s fight. The champ said he’s dialed in for Florian, who will enjoy a significant height and reach advantage inside the cage.

“I’ve definitely fought taller guys before, even guys with a longer reach than Kenny, but I can only expect to be able to impose my game and have a good fight,” Aldo said.
Sonnen-Stann leads other main-card bouts

Stann has said two years of intense study in wrestling have prepared him for the challenge. Sonnen hasn’t said much about his plans, though he faces more questions about his readiness to fight than his strategy. With a layoff of more than a year following multiple suspensions and the freezing of his contract by the UFC, he’s rusty, and he’s going into a fight against an opponent who appears to be peaking.

Sonnen’s ability to find his rhythm inside the cage is likely to determine the course of the fight. Stann’s concern about being taken down will likely leave him on the defensive early on. If Sonnen can’t deliver early, Stann will surge.