Archive for the ‘carter stewart’ tag

This is a review of the marquee names that have been in discussion for the top-end of the 1st round for the 2019 draft. Since (especially high schoolers) guys constantly are moving up or down draft boards, each section is divided into two areas: those 4-5 names really in talks to go 1-1 overall (“1-1” means 1st round, 1st overall) and then those who have fallen to “just” being 1st or 2nd rounders.

By now, the top of the draft seems settled, but this post contains a slew of names that were once talked about as “top of the draft” talents but who have slipped. Most of these names are back part of the 1st round/2nd rounders now, with some dropping to the point that they’ll honor college commitments and thus be 35th-40th rounders instead.

We’ll follow this up with a mock draft collection tomorrow; this is a good reference point for the names you’re going to hear day-1 of the draft.

College Upper 1st round names in the mix for 1-1

Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State. Switch-hitting Middle of the Order bat for the 2018 team, powered them to the CWS. 2nd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 (behind Joey Bart). 1st team d1baseball AA 2018. 2018 USA Collegiate National Team. Clear consensus 1-1 heading into 2019 spring season, and has stayed there, being almost guaranteed to go 1-1.

Zack Hess, RHP LSU via LCA in Lynchburg VA. 2018 USA Collegiate National Team, but really struggling as a starter, may be pushed down several rounds.

Mike Toglia, OF UCLA.

Carter Stewart, RHP Fla JuCo. 9th overall pick out of HS in 2018 enrolled in Juco, but stuff has faltered, costing him draft position in 2019. Recently signed a pro contract in Japan, and no longer eligible in the draft.

Carter Stewart is going to be a heck of a trail blazer. photo via PerfectGame

(tangent from our Nats miseries; yes we just got swept in NY, yes our manager needs to be whacked, yes the team is in serious trouble for 2019. We’ll talk about it more next week).

Here’s a quick story about Carter Stewart.

He was a top prep player last spring, recording the highest spin rate *ever recorded* on his curve ball. He was the 9th overall pick of the 2018 draft, couldn’t come to an agreement with the Braves over medicals (not related to his elbow or shoulder fyi .. they were related to MRIs of his wrist, stemming from a skateboarding injury apparently incurred when Stewart was a kid), didn’t sign, bailed out of his 4-yr college commitment to Mississippi State, enrolled in a Florida JuCo so he could do one-and-done in college and re-enter the 2019 draft, played this spring and didn’t wow the scouts (despite sterling statistics) and saw his draft projection (and thus his bonus) fall to perhaps an early 2nd round status.

So what is he doing? He’s doing what Scott Boras has dreamed of for two decades representing (ahem, “advising”) amateur players: he’s doing an end-around on the MLB draft. Stewart announced that he’s opting out of the MLB draft, and signing a 6yr, $7M deal in Japan.

And its a brilliant plan.

Here’s how the numbers work. Lets say that, for sake of argument, Steward got drafted in 2019, signed for $2M (a stretch frankly, but useful for this conversation). Here’s likely how the next 6-10 years of his life would go:

2019: signs, $2M bonus. Barely plays, since most prep pitchers spend their draft year in XST learning how to be a pro.

2020: XST and then GCL time as a minor leaguer earning $1200/month for 6 months. Call it $10,000 in total salary for ease of calculation.

2021: pitches full season in Low-A as a 21-yr old. Another $10k in salary

2022: moves up to high-A. Maybe we’ll even give him AA. 10k in salary

2023. He’s not breaking camp with the team, even if he merits a rotation spot .. so he starts in AAA for a few weeks, then moves up and basically earns a full MLB pre-arb salary of $575k.

So, now he’s through 6 pro seasons, he’s at the end of his age 24 season and he’s got two full years of MLB experience after 4 minor league seasons … and he’s facing another two full pre-arb seasons thanks to service time manipulation in 2023 (which everybody does), taking him through 2026/age 26, then 3 years of arbitration that limits his salary drastically versus what he’s worth on the open market … and he hits FA in 2029 after 10 years of team control … possibly with a Qualifying Offer tagged to him (unless they CBA it out of existence).

INSTEAD, he signs a $6M deal to go to Japan for those same 6 years, nearly doubles his potential pay, gets legitimate pro experience, and comes out of his experience as a completely free 25yr old. Oh, and if he hits incentives he can actually triple that $6M pay. If he had played by the rules of the MLB system at the end of 2024, he’d still be facing another FIVE seasons of artificially limited pay.

Oh, and if he burns out (like a lot of HS arms) and never gets to the majors … he’s got basically 3 TIMES the pay versus his projected bonus.

It makes one wonder; why hasn’t this happened before?? This is a complete no-brainer plan for huge chunks of pro prospects. If you’re a college-aged top 5 pick making $4-$5M of bonus and perhaps facing just a year and a half in the minors, no. But consider what Mason Denaburg is now facing (our first round pick out of HS last year). He signed last year for $3M … and has YET TO PITCH for our organization now a 1/3rd of the way through his 2nd pro season and still hasn’t been assigned. Unless Denaburg is the second coming of Clayton Kershaw, he’s going to spend a good chunk of the next 3 years in the low minors, earning less in a month than major leaguers earn in a day.

The downside to this is, of course, a 19yr old kid from Florida has to go halfway around the world to a culture and a language he doesn’t know. Sounds daunting … except for the fact that MLB basically has half its minor leagues in the same position, importing non-english speaking talent from the DR, Venezuela, Mexico, etc as well as a slew of other international players who end up here w/o knowing our culture or language. It isn’t the end of the world.

Honestly … I hope he blazes a path towards forcing MLB to take a pretty hard look at its entire draft and pay structure, which is incredibly tilted towards the owners as the MLBPA has failed for more than 2 decades now to stem the tide of owners chipping away at younger players salaries and earning possibilities. And, given the embarrassment baseball (and Oakland) just went through having their 2018 1st rounder Kyle Murray very publicly reject a $4M+ bonus amount and a guaranteed contract offer (specifically outlawed in the last CBA but offered here) so as to go pro in the NFL … it makes you wonder if there’s a need for a revamping of the system.

I hope this isn’t a one-off; I hope Stewart succeeds in Japan and makes a mint coming back to the US as a top-line 25-yr old un-encumbered free agent. Because that might really spur some change.

Its that time of year; for all the non-playoff contenders, the last few weeks of September are for “showing some fight” and “making a run to build on for the next season.”

In reality, wins in September for a lost team are really only good for one thing: “costing your team spots in the 2019 draft.”

Luckily for one team though this year … the #1 draft pick in 2019 is already sewn up. The Baltimore Orioles, the pride and joy of Peter Angelos and the major’s best (and most expensive) team back in the mid 1990s … has officially bottomed out in a way that not even the Houston Astros could accomplish.

As of this writing (9/20/18) they sit at 44-108, a .289 W/L percentage. They sti an astounding 59 games out of first place. They project to around 46-47 wins, which means the 2003 Detroit Tigers’ ignominious record is safe. But they’re still projecting to be one of the worst teams in the history of the 162-game era.

So, how about our Nats? After selling off and waving the white flag (a few weeks too late, and without getting under the damn luxury tax threshold so why did they bother but thats a different story for a different post), the Nats as of this writing sit at 77-75, projecting to 82-83 wins. They sit precisely in the middle of the 1st round: 15th overall pick (technically they are the 14th worst team, but Atlanta will get the 9th overall pick thanks to blowing their negotiations earlier this summer with Carter Stewart). Thanks to the machinations of the standings, its likely that irrespective of how they play out the string, they’ll pick no better than 14th overall in the 1st (and 13th of 30 there on) and no worse than 18th overall in the 1st (and 17th of 30 there after).

So, that’s not bad. They’ve picked in that general area a few times just in the past few years actually.

In 2012 they picked 16th overall and got Lucas Giolito.

In 2014 they picked 18th overall and got Erick Fedde

I guess the consolation prize for this year is a slightly better shot at a good arm in that 14-18 overall pick range.

Carter Stewart just turned down more money than he’s likely to see even if he’s an All American in 3 years time.. photo via PerfectGame

Updated for the 2019 draft

In 2018, just four players from the top 10 rounds failed to come to terms with their drafting team. This was slightly higher than the previous couple of seasons, but interesting this year because all four non-signing players were basically the same situation: high-end 1st round prep players with big price tags who in the end each turned down at least $2M each (and in some cases a ton more) to go off to school and lock themselves in for 3 years of playing for unaccountable, arm shredding, self-interested NCAA coaches who often could care less about player development and more about their next conference title and regional hosting bid.

And each of them probably made a huge mistake.

Its a common refrain among pundits in the amateur baseball world (Keith Law in particular) that HS players should “take the money” if they’re drafted high enough. Certainly any first rounder would be a fool to turn away that kind of money, and mostly any prep player offered something in the upper 6 figure range should give serious consideration. MLB contracts generally include college tuition … so even if you sign out of HS you still have 4 years fully paid for in case you wash out. So instead of gambling on your health, or the fickleness of the baseball draft (where one bad start can cost you 30 spots in the draft and millions of dollars), take the cash when its offered.

But, don’t take our word for it. Lets look at the empirical evidence of every player over the past seven drafts who has forgone the cash to see if there’s any trends.

Here’s a summary of the last few years of players who did not sign from the top 10 rounds. This only goes back to 2012, since that’s the beginning of the new draft rules.

2019: 2

2018: 4 (all 1st or supp-1st rounders)

2017: 3

2016: 2

2015: 6

2014: 6 (two of which were Nats picks: Andrew Suarez and Austin Byler in that ill-fated draft class, and one more who didn’t sign thanks to Houston’s screwing up the Brady Aiken deal and who was eventually granted free agency).

2013: 8

2012: 8

These are the total non-signings for the top ten ROUNDS of draftees, meaning anywhere between 300 and 350 guys comprising the top 10 rounds and supplementals. So in the seven years and roughly 2200 players drafted in the top 10 rounds in the last 7 seasons, a grand total of 37 have failed to sign.

Side note: each year we hear about all these players who aren’t going to sign or that negotiations are tough, when in reality the modern CBA rules nearly guarantee 100% signing among drafted players (unless there’s a huge misunderstanding on draft day, or a huge disagreement about medicals). The draft pools are structured so that the penalties for NOT signing players can cascade and affect your ability to sign other players (see Houston’s issue in the 2014 draft), so teams are now basically calling players in advance and saying, “If we draft you at X, will you sign for $Y?” … so the only reason players don’t sign is if there’s a serious breakdown or mis-understanding.

So, why do i say that you should always take the money? Well, lets ask ourselves: out of these 37 players who didn’t sign.. who actually IMPROVED their draft status by not signing? Lets go year by year and look at the players who failed to sign.

(a caveat here: I did not look at the dollar amounts offered here; this is basically draft round analysis. Its possible that a 5th rounder in one year went in the 8th the next and got offered more money … but its quite rare with the new draft rules and bonus pools. Everything changed with the new CBA that went into effect in 2012. The Nats in particular spent $14.6M on draft bonuses in 2011. The next year? $4.6M, with most of it going to one player in Lucas Giolito).

Obviously its too early for these four players … but all four turned down significant dollars being 1st rounders, and the odds of them improving their bonus amount and/or their draft value (especially Stewart) seems slim. Why? Keep on reading.

Its clear though that Mississippi State is going to be STACKED for the next few years though … they’re getting two first rounders to school and into their rotation. Phew; good luck to the SEC running up against this rotation for the next three years. That just doesn’t happen very often.

Drew Rasmussen, RHP, Oregon State, 1s/31st overall. Failed to sign with Tampa, who (I guess) didn’t like his medicals. He was coming back from TJ and only had a few weeks of action before the draft. Went 6th round in 2018 to Milwaukee in 2018

Two players too early to tell. Rasmussen didn’t turn down the Rays as much as they refused to tender him a contract … they must have tendered him something because they got a comp pick in 2018 draft. So he turned down 40% of first round money in 2017 to sign an underslot deal in the 6th round of 2018 ($135k, just $10k more than the non-top 10 rounds minimum). I’d say this was a bad move by the player unless Tampa flat out refused to pay a dollar.

Nick Lodolo: 1S/41st overall; LHP from Damien HS in California. failed to sign with Pittsburgh, went to TCU instead, draft eligible in 2019

Tyler Buffett: 7th/217 overall; RHP, failed to sign with Houston. returned to Oklahoma State, drafted in 6th round in 2017 and signed with Cincinnati

One guy still too early to tell, but its fair to say that Lodolo is probably pitching his way into the upper 1st round in 2019. So he’s trending on improving his stock… as long as he doesn’t destroy his arm in the shredder-program at TCU (thought to be fair the notorious coaches who destroyed more than a few arms there, including a Nats pick in Matt Purke, have moved on). Meanwhile Buffett improved his draft position one round by going back to school.

Verdict: 1 trending good, 1 improved his draft position one round.

2015: 6 guys did not sign.

Kyle Funkhouser: 1st/35th overall: RHP from Louisville, failed to sign with LA Dodgers, turning down an above-slot $2M. 4th rounder in 2016, signed with Detroit.

Brady Singer, 2nd/56th overall: RHP Florida HS. failed to sign with Toronto, went to Florida and was 1st rounder in 2018, signed with Kansas City

Jonathan Hughes, 2nd/68th overall: RHP Georgia HS. failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Georgia Tech and not even drafted in 2018…

Kyle Cody, 2nd/73rd overall: RHP U Kentucky. failed to sign with Minnesota, drafted in 6th round in 2016 and signed with Texas

Nicholas Shumpert, 7th/220th overall. SS Colorado HS. failed to sign with Detroit. Went to San Jacinto CC, drafted in 28th round 2016 by Atlanta and signed.

Kep Brown, 10th/311 overall. RF South Carolina HS, failed to sign with LA Dodgers. went to Juco, then to UNC-Wilmington, not drafted in 2018.

Funkhouser was the biggest “whoops” here; a poor spring took him from his pre-season top 10 draft position all the way out of the first round, but he still demanded upper 1st round money. He didn’t get it … and then fell to the 4th round the next year. That was a big fail. Singer clearly improved on his 2nd round status by going to college. Cody slipped from being a 2nd rounder to a 6th rounder. The other three guys drastically fell on draft boards; one of them going from a 10th rounder to not even being drafted.

Verdict: 1 improved, 5 hurt draft stock

2014: 6 failed to sign

Brady Aiken: 1/1 overall, RHP from San Diego HS. failed to sign with Houston, went to IMG Academy in FL, drafted 1/17 by Cleveland

Zack Zehner: 7th/204 OF from Cal Poly, failed to sign with Toronto. Drafted 18th round 2015 and signed with NYY

Austin Byler, 9th/274 1B from nevada-Reno. failed to sign with Washington, drafted 11th round in 2015 and signed with Arizona

Aiken became quite the rarity; the first #1 overall baseball pick to fail to sign in 30 years. But his lack of signing cascaded and cost the Astros both their 5th rounder Nix and another player later on thanks to the new draft rules on bonus pools; Nix ended up being declared a FA in a face-saving move by MLB so as not to admit that their new bonus cap circumvention rules were BS. Aiken had no where to go but down from 1-1 so he obviously cost himself money. The others all fell, if only slightly in Suarez’s case.

So there you have it. 7 of 37 turned down money and look like they slightly made out (19%). 22/37 (60%) did not … and in some cases clearly cost themselves millions of dollars. And even those 7 who did improve their ranking … not one of them in my opinion drastically improved their stock by going to college. In fact, you can make the argument that getting drafted in the 8th round in one year, playing another year in college and then going in the 5th round probably *hurts* a player’s pro prospects because now he’s a year older versus his peers and has lost a year of pro development time. A 22 yr old college senior draftee is already “old for the level” until he gets to at least Low-A, which is no guarantee even in his second pro year.

Now, has it ever worked out for a player to turn down significant 1st round money? Yeah a couple times; Mark Appel gambled and improved his stock just before the new CBA took hold; in fact he managed to go 1-1 despite being a college senior with zero leverage. Garrett Cole also made out by going to school. So did a few others in the pre-2012 CBA eras. But its a rarity; I’ve got another post that goes over these and some of the biggest nightmares for a later date.

Casey Mize has been the consensus 1-1 for 2018 for most of the season. Photo d1baseball.com

Mock Draft mania! Since the draft is Monday i’ll publish this now to talk about it and talk about who we’d like to see the Nats pick. I’ll keep adding mocks as they get published and update this post all the way til gametime.

First, here’s a preview of the names we’re talking about for the upper end of the first round. This is an evolving list, with names who were prominently mentioned last fall falling by the way-side and helium guys rising up. At publication, i’ve separated those who have fallen as indicated below.

Here’s the Mock draft collection. I’ve generally listed their top-5 and then who they project the Nats to take at #27 (if they project out that far). I got the first Mock draft link here just after the end of the 2017 season, when the BA guys did a mock once we knew the draft order. I’ll continue to add in mocks as they get published post-posting up until the draft.

MLBPipeline (Jim Callis) 2018 Mock Draft dated 5/24/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Singer, Madrigal. Has Nats on Mason Denaburg, a prep RHP from Florida (with a Florida commit) who is someone i hadn’t heard of prior to seeing it in print here. He was projected higher until shut down with biceps tendinitis; this could be a classic Nats move of taking a top-10 talent later in the 1st thanks to a slight injury issue.

Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com (Benjamin Chase) Mock draft v1.0 4/30/18: Mize, Bohm, Libratadore, Kelenic, Madrigal. Has the Nats on Mike Vasil, a HS RHP pitcher from a Boston, MA high school (with a commit to UVA/Virginia) with some possible arm issues so could be following their pattern of buying low in injured guys.

Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com (Benjamin Chase) Mock draft v2.0 5/7/18: Mize, Madrigal, Bohm, Winn, Libratadore. Has Nats on de Sedas, which would fit the Nats’ predilection of taking “famous” names.

Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com (Benjamin Chase) Mock draft v6.2 6/4/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Singer, Madrigal. Same top 5 as last few iterations. Has Nats back on Wilcox.

ESPN/Keith LawMock draft v1.0 5/2/18: Mize, Singer, Bohm, Bart, Madrigal. Has the Nats taking a prep RHP named J.T. Ginn from Mississippi, or perhaps taking one of the more “famous” prep arms if they fall (Hankins, Turang).

ESPN/Keith LawMock draft v2.0 5/17/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, Singer. Has the Nats on Rocker, or perhaps one of the other prep guys who are “famous” but who are falling this spring, looking for value.

SI.com (Jay Jaffe), now with Fangraphs, so probably not doing prospect work anymore.

CBSsports (Mike Axisa)

Todd Boss’ Mock draft top-5 prediction?

My top 5: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Singer, Madrigal. It seems like most all the pundits have arrived at this as a top 5 and it seems to make sense.

ACTUAL DRAFT Results (added after the draft): top 5 went Mize, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, India. First four no surprise … India at #5 a surprise. So was Kyler Murray at #9 to Oakland … that came out of nowhere.

Who are the Nats going to take at #27: Mason Denaburg

Its really, really difficult to project to the 27th pick; you just have no idea who will be there. Just consider the 2011 draft; the Nats sat at the #6 spot and figured they’d have zero shot at Anthony Rendon, who for most of his college career was considered a 1-1 guy. Suddenly Rendon has a slight injury, the first few teams pass on him … and he falls into the Nat’s lap.

Historically, Mike Rizzo drafts college guys. And historically, he drafts college arms up high. However, most of the mocks above have the Nats taking prep arms in the first.

The clear “word on the street” out of the Nats camp this year is prep arm. Why? I have no idea. How many high school arms have you ever seen Mike Rizzo draft at the top of the draft? How about in the top 10 rounds altogether? I’ll give you the answer to the latter question: Three: Rizzo has drafted exactly three prep arms in the top 10 rounds in the entirety of his Nats career, dating to 2009. Jesus Luzardo, Lucas Giolito and A.J. Cole. That’s it. Cole was under the prior bonus rules, when they threw 1st round money at him in the 4th. Giolito was a case where he dropped precipitously thanks to an arm injury and the Nats snagged him mid 1st (which kind of fits the Denaburg projection this year) … and Luzardo was a 3rd rounder with 1st round talent but a TJ surgery on his resume who they got great value on. So why would anyone think Rizzo is going to pick a prep arm unless its a Giolito situation where a top-5 projected guy suddenly falls?

Normally, i’d firmly in the camp that the Nats will follow their typical pattern here for later 1st round picks: college arm. I like the mocks that project guys like Beck or Hjelle, or any one of several solid college arms who might drop down because of a crummy regional performance. Ole Miss’ Ryan Rolison fits the bill here as a guy who might be available at 27, as does Jackson Kowar.

What about one of the famous “bats” in this draft? Namely, Seth Beer or Luken Baker or Griffen Conine? All seem like no-position/defensive liability sluggers, which may end up being tweeners between Late 1st round and mid 2nd round … so they’d be reaches for the Nats in the 1st but gone by our 2nd round pick.

Actual Nats #27 Pick (added after the draft): Mason Denaburg. For the second year in a row, the Nats tip their hand and have their first round pick predicted by every major pundit.