Lebanon: Hezbollah Will Respond to Assassination

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Mourners carry the coffin of Hassan Hawlo al-Lakiss, one of the Hezbollah's top commanders, during his funeral in the eastern Lebanese city of Baalbek on December 4, 2013. (Photo: AFP - STR)

Who made the decision to strike such a painful blow to the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon by assassinating one of its military commanders, Hassan al-Laqqis? Who planned the operation, and who decided on carrying it out at this particular time? On what basis, and in whose interest? And what were the intended goals of this potentially explosive action?

All indications are that Israel was behind the assassination, with a slim possibility that another party was involved. That’s why it did not take long for Hezbollah – based on its long experience with the Israelis – to point the finger at Tel Aviv, even though the occupation’s Foreign Ministry was quick to deny its involvement.

Tel Aviv’s intent was to send a message to the West that Israel is not prepared to fall into line with the priorities of its allies, by maintaining its margin of deterrence against its enemies, while at the same time telling Iran that the war on its nuclear program and regional influence is not over.On the same day as the attack, Western diplomatic sources were reported to be worried that Israel’s intent goes beyond removing one of its opponents, suggesting that the Western-Iranian nuclear agreement was the real target of the operation. Israel is angry that its Western allies would go so far in exposing its strategic interests to danger, revealing deep contradictions in their relationship to the Zionist state for the first time.

But let us look at how Israel conceived of this particular adventure.

First, Israel knows well that it could not have carried out such an attack against Iran directly, given that the West is not in a position to back such an action after having reached the conclusion that the military option in dealing with Tehran is no longer possible.

And if Israel had chosen instead to eliminate an Iranian nuclear scientist, as it has on more than one occasion, it would have only put it in an awkward position with its Western allies, without achieving much politically or otherwise.

Tel Aviv’s intent was to send a message to the West that Israel is not prepared to fall into line with the priorities of its allies, by maintaining its margin of deterrence against its enemies, while at the same time telling Iran that the war on its nuclear program and regional influence is not over.

Second, Israel has come to understand that Damascus and its allies have made a strategic decision that the occasional Zionist airstrikes on Syrian targets are not worthy of a response – at the given time, at least – in light of the global war being waged on the country.

Israel was therefore left with limited and potentially dangerous options that nevertheless served its goals, and it decided to assassinate a prominent military leader in the Resistance, sending a direct message to Hezbollah that the Zionist state is still capable of striking painful blows without anyone’s help. In the case of Iran, Tel Aviv wants to make it clear that it rejects all that was agreed to with the West.

The assassination was also intended as a message of solidarity to Israel’s “new allies,” such as Saudi Arabia, telling them “our enemy is one” and encouraging them to stand up to Western pressures on Iran and Syria. It’s as if Tel Aviv wants to reassure Riyadh: “We are with you in the trenches, not just through statements.”

But how did Israel consider Hezbollah’s response to a crime of such proportions?

Here, we can only speculate. Was the assassination intended to spark a regional war that Israel believes is in its favor, given that Hezbollah and Iran are busy defending the now exhausted regime in Damascus? It is also possible that Tel Aviv calculated that, like the Syrian regime, the Lebanese Resistance is in not prepared to risk a wider war at this time and therefore will not respond in kind.

But there are indications that Israel may have miscalculated on this last point. The way Hezbollah announced the martyrdom of Laqqis, and the speed with which he was buried in unexceptional circumstances – without, for example, any positions declared by Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah – all suggest to those who know how the Resistance operates that in fact its response is not long in coming. Let us wait and see.

Comments

Unfortunately, Hizbulla's participation in Resistance Axis's ethnic cleansing in Syria is not " junk propaganda ", it's a daily reality.
The implied threat to " respond " against Israel is just bluster ;
The Jews are a much more dangerous opponate, than the Syrian revolutionaries.

Al Lakiss was actually wasted by Hizballah . Ask them why. Meantime, Ali Hussein Bazzi and Ali Saleh tragically became the latest victims of Jihad,while minding their own business on their way to the library.

Now that is something that I did not give consideration to, which make 100% sense. It is often the case when someone in the lower ranks becomes more popular than the boss that the boss does the next best thing and eliminates those that would dare think of taking over.

More anti-Israeli rhetoric to hide the fact that there are a lot of Lebanese who are enemies of the militia within there country drawing them into wars. Maybe if Hezbollah wasn't busy in Syria killing fellow Muslims people might be more likely to believe the Hezbollah resistence line of bullshit. It falls on deaf ears and only the ignorant and blind followers will see it as anything other than hot air.

Now this is a person that I totally agree with. This is something that I have been saying all along. We Lebanese are fed up with the likes of Hezbollah and the rest of Nasrallah's gang who call themselves liberators. They are destroyers not liberators. They are killers of Syrian women and children and continue to kill innocent Syrians on a daily basis to protect Assad.

I am glad that the people of Lebanon are finally wakening to the reality of who is and what Hezbollah intends to accomplish in Lebanon. We now know that Hezbollah plans to take over Lebanon and bring all those who oppose Nasrallah to their knees. Lebanese Christians and non-radical Muslims will be forced to tow the new Hezbollah line. This is why we cannot let these Hezbollah sewer rats divide Lebanon. It is time for Lebanese people to realise what is happening to their land. Once Assad wins, the Syrian army may well team up with Hezbollah to re-dictate Lebanon's policies as their reward for having helped Assad to remain in power.

I think either you're really stupid or live in a dream world. Israel used local tools that Hezbollah even knows. It is stupidity of our people to allow others to take advantage of us. Israel is playing a psychological war which we can lose due to some ignorant people who dont know how to use brain or interpret, they just believe what they have been told. I feel pity on you.

Welcome back Mr. Anonymous: Calling me names does not change the situation of how our people think and act. We Christians do not go around killing other Christians because they call themselves Protestants, Coptic, Baptist, Mormons or whatever other Christian denomination is labelled and followed. What we have presently in Lebanon, as is in Iraq and other Islamic regions and countries, is the severity of hatred between the Sunnis and Shiites that are killing each other daily and my question remains for what and why!.

As for the psychology of war, we the people of Lebanon voted into power those which we felt best represented our ideologies. true we are not always right in the choice of those we have selected. However let me leave you with this closing point. Though Hezbollah may have had some good intentions when they first came into the picture, such is no longer the case. Hezbollah have brought calamity to our nation along with disgrace and acts of tyranny. They no longer have Israel as their sole enemy. We Lebanese want Hezbollah out. Trust me when I say that if they do not disband, those who know them best and formally supported them, have now become their worst enemy. Bullets are being prepared for targeting Hezbollah supporters, but not by Zionists but more so by Lebanese themselves who have had it with Hezbollah and what they have turned the country into..

It's always those who are the uneducated that write in whatever stupidity that comes to their head. Had this anonymous person done his homework, he would have found out that Jews only each Kosher Chicken livers and not those non-kosher human livers and of course, never while being filmed on a video. No one Mr. Anonymous was anything less than disgusted in seeing a man's heart carved out and eaten. It was indeed most barbaric.

We understand Mr. Anonymous, from your posting that you are an Assad supporter. No one blames you for that. and you are of course equally a Hezbollah supporter. We cannot blame you for that as well. But we can indeed point out that you are among those known as the uneducated whose job is to call others 'twit' while twisting the truth to satisfy your point. I feel sad for your family that they have discovered that after all these years they are the parents to a fully grown adult child who through his posting has demonstrated that he still possesses the brain of a 3 year old child. By the way, as a Lebanese, I do not support Assad or his Hezbollah Sewer rats.

With all due respect Mr. Ibrahim al-Amin to your article that describes your personal view as to who assassinated Hassan al-Laqqis. You are pointing the finger at the wrong perpetrators. Hezbollah has a lot of enemies just in Lebanon alone, so before you point the finger in the wrong direction for initiating a war with the Zionist State, both the Lebanese government, along with the Army are the only ones along with al-Qaeda that had direct access to Hassan al-Laqqis. Not Israel. al-Qaeda should be your #1 suspect as they are well entrenched into the Lebanese society and are laughing in your face because they are doing the killing and Hezbollah is much too blind with anger to admit it so they point the finger at the Israelis to avoid embarrassment.

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