Hot or not? The 2014 employment forecast

Sunday

Feb 9, 2014 at 2:00 AM

While the Seacoast may be in the midst of a polar vortex, the temperature of the job market is feeling distinctly warmer. As we close out January, let's take a look back at the employment trends of 2013 and look ahead to what we can expect in the coming year.

Jason Alexander

While the Seacoast may be in the midst of a polar vortex, the temperature of the job market is feeling distinctly warmer. As we close out January, let's take a look back at the employment trends of 2013 and look ahead to what we can expect in the coming year.

For the most part, economic and employment trends range from moderately positive to highly positive on all fronts: local, statewide and national. Although there are a number of factors that will influence the long-term strength of the market — health care, national deficit and federal budgets — most indications predict a slow but positive upswing for 2014 and beyond.

Starting with the big picture, national statistical trends are encouraging overall. Over the course of 2013 the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by 23.5 percent, with the majority of economic analysts, from Bloomberg to the Wall Street Journal, predicting another 12 to 15 percent increase for 2014. While that doesn't mean you should bank on your stock values shooting sky high, it does mean investment portfolios should continue to show returns and increase consumer confidence. And while we're on the subject, Nielsen's Consumer Confidence Index, a periodic survey intended to measure consumers' confidence in the market through spending and saving habits, hit a 5½-year high in December 2013.

On the local and regional level, Seacoast employment trends are also decidedly toasty. Rockingham County saw an 11.5 percent decrease in unemployment last year, with a 17 percent employment increase in the fourth quarter — up nearly 30 percent year over year. There were significant increases in information technology, professional services, business services, accounting, tourism, and the big winner, hospitality, which increased hiring 8.7 percent more than any other industry. Why is that such good news? It means that confidence is increasing and local consumers are allocating more of their budget to luxury spending. One other item of note: Rockingham County saw 6.9 percent decrease in average wage levels, but it's primarily attributed to an increase in the number of lower-wage workers going back out into the work force.

Temporary employment levels are another good gauge. Last year, New Hampshire saw a 48 percent incline in temporary employment. According to the American Staffing Association, the need for temp workers has shifted. In recent years, major increases in temporary hiring were the result of tentativeness in the market. Employers saw the prospect of a stronger market, but didn't want to make a long-term commitment to increasing their work forces. But in 2013, there was a sharp shift as many employers hired temps because they weren't able to find ideal permanent employees on the open market — much more like the trends we saw in the late 1990s and 2005-2006. Although there are still plenty of highly qualified candidates available, this trend means positive momentum for the year to come.

Number-crunching aside, the pulse of local employers continues to be refreshing.

Our recruiters work with hundreds of local companies and nearly all are experiencing organizational growth coupled with a rapidly shrinking local pool of talent. We're hearing stories on a daily basis about new projects focused on expansion and product innovation — stories that were few and far between in recent years.

No doubt, the market will face its share of challenges in 2014, but you can expect the net forecast to be pleasantly hot.

Jason Alexander is managing partner of Alexander Technology Group, KBW Financial Staffing & Recruiting, The Nagler Group, which has a local office at Pease International Tradeport in Portsmouth.

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