Friday, June 24, 2011

Oregon Miscellaneous

-John Kitzhaber's off to a good start in his second round as Governor of Oregon. 47% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 35% who disapprove, a positive approval spread much wider than his margin of victory last fall. Democrats almost all approve of him (74/12) and his 17% approval from Republicans is a decent amount of crossover support.

-Ron Wyden is one of the most popular Senators in the country with 55% of voters approving of him to only 29% who disapprove. He has similar numbers to Kitzhaber with Democrats but is much more popular with independents (52/30) and gets good marks even from 30% of Republicans.

-Jeff Merkley is considerably less popular and remains somewhat anonymous to voters in the state with 36% of voters approving of him, 33% disapproving, and 31% holding no opinion. Those kinds of numbers usually mean your political fate is going to be determined by the wind. If 2014 is a good Democratic year he'll be around for another term but if it's a strong GOP year Merkley could be in a lot of trouble. Of course he does still have time to get his numbers to a point in the next 3.5 years where he'd be less susceptible to a bad turn in the political climate for Democrats.

-If Republicans are going to put up a tough fight against Merkley in 2014 Greg Walden might be their ideal candidate. He has pretty solid statewide favorability numbers with 30% of voters rating him positively to only 19% with a negative opinion. In addition to being popular with GOP voters, a plurality of Democrats even have a favorable opinion of him

Those numbers don't make Walden the state's most popular member of the House though- that designation falls to Peter DeFazio who 45% of voters see favorably to 28% with a negative opinion. It may be a while before a good statewide opportunity opens up but if Democrats were going to look to their House delegation when one did emerge DeFazio might be the top contender.

The most unpopular member of the House contingent is no surprise given recent events. Only 16% have a favorable view of David Wu to 50% with a negative one. His bad reviews are universal across party lines.

Earl Blumenauer (33/21) and Kurt Schrader (22/18) fall in the middle.

-Oregon voters narrowly support gay marriage, 48/42. There is less division on granting at least some form of legal recognition to same sex couples- 76% are supportive of that (43% marriage, 33% civil unions) with only 22% completely opposed.

This is quite an interesting survey regarding same-sex marriage. The 48%-42% split would shock a lot of people, considering Oregon's very liberal reputation. But some of that support is quite soft and 55% of voters actually shy (or run) from the 'M' word when given a chance. Yet another lefty state where gay marriage is hardly 'mainstream'.

Some of this isn't really news, such as the fact that Peter DeFazio could probably win statewide --he's flirted with it fairly often.

Most of the other results are just about name recognition. With the exception of Wu, the ones who have been around longest have the best numbers.

No question, relative newbies like Jeff Merkley and Kurt Schrader have to fight to keep their seats, but they'll both be back next session because the Republicans will nominate people who are too far to the right for the voters.

Just wanted to thank you for asking the marriage question in both the 2-option and 3-option formats. This really is the best way and most informative way to do it.

One thing about the OR poll is confusing. Q11 asks for the respondents' Presidential vote in 2008, but it does not give an option for "did not vote" or "ineligible to vote". Aren't you cutting out young voters who may not have been eligible to vote in 2008 or who, regardless of prior eligibility, have since joined the rolls and are likely to vote in 2012?