Election 2016: Eight weeks to go and it's too close to call

The July 2 federal election is shaping as a cliffhanger with neither Labor nor the Coalition beginning the 56-day campaign holding a clear lead, while the personal standing of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull continues to decline.

Mr Turnbull pulled the trigger on Sunday for a double dissolution election, urging voters to trust his government with managing Australia's economic transition away from the mining boom and keeping the nation secure. Labor leader Bill Shorten based his opening pitch on health, education and fairness which, he said, did not preclude balancing the budget.

With both leaders to spend Monday, the first full day of the campaign, in the key battleground state of Queensland, the latest Fairfax/Ipsos shows the Coalition leading Labor by 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, based on how preferences flowed at the 2013 election. But when those polled were asked who they would preference, the major parties were locked at 50 per cent each.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announces the election in Canberra on Sunday, to be held on July 2. Alex Ellinghausen

The Coalition won the last election by 53.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent. If the poll results were replicated on July 2, the Coalition would scrape home with a reduced margin.

The poll shows that despite the even split, there is a clear expectation that the Coalition will win with 53 per cent predicting Mr Turnbull to remain Prime Minister, while just 24 per cent predict a Labor win. The Coalition's primary vote is a strong 44 per cent, up 2 percentage points since the last poll a month ago, while Labor's is unchanged at a low 33 per cent.

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Preferences will be critical for Labor, especially those from the Greens whose primary vote is steady at 14 per cent.

Worryingly for the Coalition, Mr Turnbull's standing continues to decline among voters, while that of Mr Shorten is on the increase. Mr Turnbull has an approval rating of 48 per cent, a 3 point fall since the last poll a month ago, while his disapproval rating has risen another 2 points to 40 per cent. Mr Shorten's approval rating has risen 5 points in a month to 38 per cent and his disapproval rating has fallen 6 points to 49 per cent.

Mr Turnbull leads as preferred prime minister by 51 per cent to 29 per cent. Last month he led 54-27.

Lengthy campaign

At 56 days, it will be one of the longest federal election campaigns in history, surpassed only by the 66 day marathon in 1969.

Laura Tingle

Approval rating

Two-party polling based on preference flow at the last election. The poll results are based on a national survey of 1404 respondents (aged 18+) conducted by telephone. Data is weighted by age, sex and location.

Preferred PM

Phillip Coorey

PM back in the land of the political mortals

Two-party

SOURCE: IPSOS | GRAPHIC: Dorothy Woodgate Edmund Tadros

The parties are neck and neck

Primary vote

The Coalition's primary support has shrunk

Malcolm Turnbull's lead is narrowing

The gap in approval ratings is still significant

PM back in the land of the political mortals

FAIRFAX IPSOS POLL

If Labor wins, it will become the first opposition in 85 years to regain government after just one term. To do so, it needs a swing of more than 4 per cent and to pick up a net minimum of 19 seats on a notional basis to add to its 57 seats.

The Coalition, to avoid becoming the first government to lose power after one term since the Scullin Labor government lost in 1931, needs to lose fewer than 15 seats. It starts with a notional 89 seats with 76 the minimum required to form government.

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Both leaders used their opening statements to tell voters they faced a clear choice.

"At this election, Australians will have a very clear choice – to keep the course, maintain the commitment to our national economic plan for growth and jobs, or go back to Labor, with its high-taxing, higher spending, debt and deficit agenda, which will stop our nation's transition to the new economy dead in its tracks," Mr Turnbull said.

Laura Tingle

Phillip Coorey

SOURCE: IPSOS | GRAPHIC: DOROTHY WOODGATE EDMUND TADROS

FAIRFAX IPSOS POLL

The prime minister said Labor's negative gearing and capital gains policy would destroy jobs and shock the property market "at a time as the Reserve Bank governor said only a few days ago property prices are moderating".

"It puts at risk the investments of millions of Australians. It stands in the pathway, blocking the road to entrepreneurship," he said.

In his opening 20-minute salvo Mr Turnbull made no mention of climate change.

Not just about policies and personalities

Mr Shorten said the election was more than a choice about policies and personalities but a choice about "what sort of Australia that we want to live in?".

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Opposition Leader Bill Shorten was in Beaconsfield on Sunday, when the federal election was called. Phillip Biggs

"What sort of Australia do we want our children to grow up in? I will fight the election on issues vital to millions of Australians. I will fight this election on schools and education. I will fight this election for health, hospitals and Medicare. I will fight this election for real action on climate change. I will fight this election to help create a vibrant economy, growing jobs, with reasonable conditions, and security for all. I will fight this election to make Australia a fairer place."

He said fairness and growth were not mutually exclusive concepts.

"I just don't share Mr Turnbull's proposition that the only way you fix the national budget is by cutting school funding, is by increasing the cost of going to university, is by getting rid of bulk-billing incentives for people who need pathology and X-ray tests. Labor's priorities and the way we have approached budget repair is that it has to be fair."

The poll of 1410 voters was taken from Thursday night to Saturday night, meaning initial reaction to Tuesday's federal budget and Mr Shorten's reply.

It found perceptions of the budget were generally negative and it was perceived as unfair, but sentiment was not overwhelming either way.

The economic battle between the two parties is between the government's belief that by boosting business with tax cuts, it can generate economic growth and broad prosperity, and Labor's pursuit of of inclusive growth.

Mr Turnbull said his $48 billion in company tax cuts and cuts for unincorporated businesses over a decade would be to the greater benefit of society.

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"As you reduce business taxes ... what you do is promote, incentivise investment. The relationship is very clear and direct."

Mr Shorten said: "The government's pitch is about growing the economy through trickle-down economics.

"What I mean by that, is they're going to give the largest companies in Australia and multinationals a tax cut."

Double dissolution

Mr Turnbull called the election after Governor-General Sir Peter Cosgrove approved a double dissolution, which is a full Senate election. This requires a trigger which is at least one bill rejected by the Senate twice, at least three months apart.

Mr Turnbull used as triggers the Senate's rejection of a bill to re-establish the construction industry watchdog, the Australian Building and Construction Commission, and a bill to establish a Registered Organisations Commission, to oversee unions and employer groups.

While the two triggers are based on industrial relations, the election will be fought on much broader issues, principally the economy, tax, border protection, climate change, health and education.