tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post5750298558171435782..comments2018-06-02T14:19:34.554-04:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Leaving Free WP All Over the FieldBrian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-62412363359488276102014-09-28T11:53:59.790-04:002014-09-28T11:53:59.790-04:00Matt Ryan did the same thing to Seattle with about...Matt Ryan did the same thing to Seattle with about 30 seconds left in the playoffs two years ago. Nearly everybody has forgotten that while Denver had no timeouts, they got a free one when Chancellor nearly killed Buerle. Otherwise, we are probably not having this conversation. Everything went right for Denver. There was a missed field goal. There was an interception on a tipped ball. There was a safety.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-11035881784170634382014-09-26T14:39:09.616-04:002014-09-26T14:39:09.616-04:00but that makes it hard to rack up stats and points...but that makes it hard to rack up stats and points,<br /><br />which gets people paid and promotedAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-63561016618681585232014-09-24T05:01:30.969-04:002014-09-24T05:01:30.969-04:00I believe the best option in such circumstances is...I believe the best option in such circumstances is to look to snap the ball non-predicatively within a few seconds without risking the DoG that might have a bigger impact. Allowing for the snap count say roughly 3sec plus or minus on a fixed time, which by definition would be close to 5sec on the GC. So maybe the Seahawks were a little on the generous side.<br /><br />Perhaps more relevant was the Monday Night game when the Jets scored their TD at 3:50 in Q2 when already down by 11 and clearly struggling. Surely a case of going for two to try to generate some momentum and at least trying to move within a FG. Not sure of the overall logic going for two compared to when leading by five but most definitely a case of thinking outside the boxHugh Nightingalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00395061346300145292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-67522538451505971732014-09-23T23:08:01.980-04:002014-09-23T23:08:01.980-04:00Isn&#39;t there some game theory involved here? If...Isn&#39;t there some game theory involved here? If you snap the ball at the clock every time, the defense will know exactly when to come across the line or show a blitz. If you snap the ball with 7 seconds left the defense maybe hesitates for a fraction of a second, because they don&#39;t want to draw an offsides.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-35286937863923009472014-09-23T21:51:46.539-04:002014-09-23T21:51:46.539-04:00How about keep playing aggressively? While I know ...How about keep playing aggressively? While I know people hate when teams run up the score but its better than losing a game you had in hand.Andrew Suttonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01533887992615716129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-5853824959390584572014-09-23T19:59:47.299-04:002014-09-23T19:59:47.299-04:00Running the clock down to zero is not really an op...Running the clock down to zero is not really an option, especially as a solid rule. First, chances of a delay of game will be increased. Second, the defense can see the clock too, if they know when the snap will be they have a great advantage (over not knowing). It is far more important to execute your play well, than to nickel and dime the clock.<br /><br />Similarly with going out of bounds. It may have earned an extra yard, rather than moving towards the defender. That is ignored. It also guarantees no fumble, as opposed to a non-zero fumble risk moving into the defender. It also greatly reduces injury, if your star receiver is blows out a knee gaining 10 seconds, it was not worth it.<br /><br />Many details are ignored in this article, and since the final answer is only 1%, then all these details are probably important.<br /><br />Also, wouldn&#39;t the broncos time management make a much bigger impact on the game? They could have hustled out of the huddle 3 seconds faster on all their snaps, and saved themselves much more time. They were losing the whole 2nd half, that&#39;s a lot of plays.<br /><br />I think just about every other play that occurred over that time range had a bigger effect on the outcome, than this. Even if we could isolate the time difference from the rest of the game, and assume no difference in the offense outcomes or the defense outcomes, the 1 in 100 effect isn&#39;t a compelling reason. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-82706068603108350932014-09-22T23:50:35.927-04:002014-09-22T23:50:35.927-04:00Anon2 - well, taking time off the clock is measura...Anon2 - well, taking time off the clock is measurable and demonstrably effective. Those other things seem like they are much harder to document and measure in any reliable way. I think that is the whole point of analytics over &#39;other factors/gut feeling&#39; stuff. We all get it that those intangible factors might be a factor, but you have to show why or how. Especially when non-intangible factors demonstrably make up the majority of what is going on in a football game.<br /><br />Cheers,<br />JAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-16668516857091185872014-09-22T18:32:04.888-04:002014-09-22T18:32:04.888-04:00Maybe other factors outweigh milking the clock ano...Maybe other factors outweigh milking the clock another 2 seconds. Perhaps you want your QB to go when he&#39;s ready, or when he sees the defense leaning, or off balance, or when he feels the offensive players are working together well because a certain tempo has been established. Is it possible they get more than a 1% advantage from other factors that compete with the goal of milking the most time they can off the clock?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-89364669557069564782014-09-22T17:35:16.221-04:002014-09-22T17:35:16.221-04:00When I saw the title and the still from DEN-SEA, I...When I saw the title and the still from DEN-SEA, I assumed this article would be about Denver running draw plays on 3rd and long.Tarrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14368810359650066790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-64637142869571037902014-09-22T14:05:31.539-04:002014-09-22T14:05:31.539-04:00Ian,
There should be a bunch of Madden 101 questio...Ian,<br />There should be a bunch of Madden 101 questions on the wonderlic.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-63841207300275639432014-09-22T13:29:04.924-04:002014-09-22T13:29:04.924-04:00A post on giving up WP, and not a questioned 4th d...A post on giving up WP, and not a questioned 4th down decision in sight. The funny thing is clock management is something every Madden player knows intuitively.<br /><br />Stopping running on the 1 if you&#39;re down by less than a FG late on, using timeouts at the right time, burning the clock if you&#39;re ahead. All of this stuff is thought of as crazy or inventive in the NFL when it should be basic tactics 101.Ian Simcoxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01518825067469269377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-75353887160386795662014-09-22T12:42:39.534-04:002014-09-22T12:42:39.534-04:00Forgot to mention...Cal might want to take this ad...Forgot to mention...Cal might want to take this advice too.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.com