re: So... are we going to war with North Korea in the near future?(Posted by CtotheVrzrbck on 3/16/13 at 1:55 am to Five0)

Maybe I'm nuts but I don't think NK would be much trouble at all. South Korea would be all kinds of fricked but if China stayed hands off due to NK's striking first then we could have that thing wrapped up nice and tight in under 3-4 weeks.

re: So... are we going to war with North Korea in the near future?(Posted by Jim Rockford on 3/16/13 at 2:00 am to Five0)

NK would lose badly and it would end the regime. They could frick some things up in the meantime, though, and they'll have sleeper agents planted throughout SK to do sabotage. Expect major disruptions in the semiconductor industry, as well as ships to and from Asia staying in port until all the NK submarines are accounted for. And while a practical, working ICBM is probably beyond their capability for now, they're very capable of touching off a bomb on their own territory and letting the fallout cloud drift downwind to SK and Japan.

re: So... are we going to war with North Korea in the near future?(Posted by foshizzle on 3/16/13 at 2:07 am to ever43)

quote:North Korea can wipe Seoul from the face of the earth with conventional weapons quickly if they stuck first. We would most certainly get involved and it would be a long and drawn out war that would approach Vietnam level casualties if we invaded.

Again, the key is whether they have Chinese support. PRK by itself cannot sustain major combat operations for very long at all and would be quickly crushed even assuming the soldiers are dedicated to the cause, which becomes less likely over time. This would not be close, there might be minor skirmishes north of Seoul with some civilian casualties, but nothing of strategic importance.

If China were to actively back the PRK like they did in 1950 it could be another animal, but we are on more friendly terms with the Chinese these days so the fate of North Korea is more likely to be settled over a table than over a field.