Synopsis

Mumble, The Master of Tap, has a problem because his tiny son, Erik, is choreo-phobic. Reluctant to dance, Erik runs away and encounters The Mighty Sven - a penguin who can fly! Mumble has no hope of competing with this charismatic new role model.
But things get worse when the world is shaken by powerful forces.
Erik learns of his father's guts and grit as Mumble brings together the penguin nations and all manner of fabulous creatures - from tiny Krill to giant Elephant Seals - to put things right.

New releases dominated the DVD sales chart earning the top three spots and five of the top ten. Leading the way was The Muppets with 884,000 units / $15.05 million. This is a little weaker than I would like, but perhaps it performed better on Blu-ray. I'm not overly optimistic, because live action kids movies tend to struggle on high definition.
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Like last week, new releases dominated the DVD sales chart this week with three new releases topping the chart. The best of the best was Happy Feet Two with 896,000 units / $13.43 million during its first week on the home market. The film struggled at the box office, so this start on the home market is better than expected.
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There are two themes this week. The first is Awards Season. There are no fewer than half a dozen Award Season players on this week's list, although one was a late review. Speaking of late reviews, that's the other theme on this week's list, as there are no fewer than eight releases on this week's list where I'm waiting for the screener to arrive. (This includes Wizards which arrived on Monday; however, screeners need to arrive by Friday if I'm to get the review done on time.) Unfortunately, there's a lot of crossover among these two groups and a few Pick of the Week candidates are late. For instance, My Week with Marilyn and Melancholia fit into both groups. Other screeners I'm waiting for that could be Pick of the Week are Wallace & Gromit: World of Invention and the aforementioned Wizards: 35th Anniversary Blu-ray, while The Guild: Season Five was up for that honor as well. However, in the end I went with The Descendants on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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For the first time in four weeks, we had a new number one film on the international chart, as Puss In Boots continued its climb reaching top spot. It expanded into 16 additional markets, including a handful of major ones. This propelled it into first place with $47.06 million on 6,749 screens in 40 markets for a total of $143.72 million, which is just over what it has made domestically. The film's biggest debuted was Germany, where it earned top spot with $6.88 million on 680 screens, including previews. It was even more impressive in Brazil with $5.56 million on 738 screens, also including previews. Brazil is more of an emerging market than a major market, so the fact that it generated more revenue than its openings in either Australia ($4.03 million on 507 screens, including previews) or in the U.K. ($3.07 million on 510) is quite stunning. With debuts in Italy, Japan, and other markets ahead of it, not to mention the Christmas holiday, it could double what it currently has internationally, which would lift its worldwide total over $400 million.
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For the third weekend in a row, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 earned top spot on the international chart, this time with $40.2 million on 9,000 screens in 73 markets. It now has totals of $341 million internationally and $588 million worldwide. Its biggest opening of the weekend came from South Korea, where it made $3.22 million on 706 screens for a total opening of $5.12 million. Its biggest running tally comes from the U.K. where it has made $42.76 million, including $2.61 million on 523 screens this past weekend.
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Well that was depressing. No one was expecting a huge boom at the box office this weekend, but the overall results were even weaker than expected. In fact, at just $81 million it was the worst weekend of the entire year. Needless to say, the box office was down on a week-to-week basis plummeting 51%. Year-over-year there were also declines, albeit by a softer margin of 6%. Year-to-date, 2011 has pulled in $9.47 billion and it is now 4% behind last year's pace. There's almost no chance to close the gap in just four weeks and the only hope we have is to build momentum over the next four weeks, so that 2012 doesn't continue the year-over-year declines we've been suffering through for most of 2011.
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There are no wide releases opening this week, but that doesn't mean there definitely won't be a change at the top of the box office. The Fangirl Factor for The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 will likely eat away at its box office much more than the three family films, and this could leave The Muppets on top over the weekend. This is what happened last year with Tangled. Unfortunately for this year, Tangled started out much better and even if The Muppets holds on better as a percentage of its opening, that likely won't be enough to for the total box office to earn a win in the year-over-year comparison.
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The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 remained in top spot on the international chart with $76 million on 10,500 screens in 68 markets for a total of $268 million internationally and $489 million worldwide. It has already topped the first film in the franchise and by the end it should improve upon the franchise's international average. Its best new market was Germany, at $10.89 million on 789 screens over the weekend, for a total opening of $13.70 million. Meanwhile, its best holdover was the U.K., where it added $7.11 million on 546 screens to its two-week total, which sits at $36.24 million.
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November ended the same way it began, on a losing note. Of the three wide releases, only The Muppets really made an impact at the box office. Hugo was able to top expectations and it was the only film in the top five to do so, but it was also the smallest of the three new releases in the top five. This meant the overall box office was down 26% from last weekend to $164 million. That was behind last year's haul by 9% leaving 2011 further behind last year's pace. At the moment, the gap is close to 4% at $9.35 billion to $9.71 billion.
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It's the Thanksgiving long weekend and that means families should be flooding theaters. Fortunately, there's plenty of choices, as there are three family films opening tonight: The Muppets, Arthur Chrstmas, and Hugo. Unfortunately, this direct competition will likely mean one or two of them won't be able to match their box office potential and the studio will end up disappointed. Also, it will be nearly impossible for any of them to top The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 over the weekend. This weekend last year, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1 was the number one film, but Tangled came very, very close to overtaking it as both films came within $2 million of $50 million. I don't think any film will do that well this year, so we will likely see a sharp decline on the year-over-year comparison.
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Normally the breaking of the dawn is a sign of hope, and normally a film opening with close to $140 million is a reason to celebrate. However, despite the success of The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1, there are some troubling signs ahead. If we can focus on the positive for a bit, the film did help the overall box office rocket up 63% from last weekend to $222 million, which was 14% higher than the same weekend last year. That's not enough to suggest 2011 will catch up to 2010 by the end of the year. We are still 3.5% behind last year's pace at $9.09 billion to $9.42 billion and we are rapidly running out of time. Plus there are worse signs ahead.
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2011 got some much needed good news last weekend, as the overall box office topped expectations and we saw year-over-year growth. The industry sure hopes we can continue that winning trend this week. There are some reasons to be optimistic, even though this weekend last year saw the release of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1, which made just over $125 million during its opening weekend. Most analysts think The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 will top that figure with relative ease. Additionally, Happy Feet 2 looks like it will be a very solid counter-programming release and, on the high end, the top two films could make more this weekend than the entire box office made last year. It's probably too late for 2011 to catch up with 2010, but every victory is still worth celebrating.
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October was a bit of a write-off. After the last weekend of September, the 2011 box office was about $280 million behind 2010's pace, but after the final weekend in October, that gap increased to $340 million. November will obviously bring in more box office dollars than October did. After all, it has one of the most important long holiday weekends of the year, Thanksgiving. However, the important question is not, "Can this November top last month?" It's, "Can this November top last year?" The biggest hit of last November was Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I, which earned just shy of $300 million. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 should match that figure. Tangled reached $200 million and maybe Happy Feet 2 will match that figure, but that's far less certain. There's a chance The Muppets will match Megamind while Tower Heist should top Due Date. If Jack and Jill and / or Hugo can become surprise $100 million hits and one of the limited releases can become a monster hit, like The King's Speech was able to, then suddenly the box office looks whole lot rosier going into the final month of the year. It's possible, but it's kind of like getting a backdoor full house in Texas Hold'em to beat a straight. I wouldn't bet on it. On the other hand, there doesn't appear to be many Skyline, The Next Three Days or Faster films that bombed at the box office. So while we might not be as strong at the top, there is better depth this year and hopefully that will be enough.
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The shaded area represents the expected performance range for a film, based on its opening weekend box office. 95% of films fall within the shaded area. If a film trends towards the top end of the shaded area, it has good legs compared to the average film; if it trends towards the bottom end of the shaded area, it has poor legs. The predictive area is based on movies from the past 5 years.

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