Analyzing correlations between different CFB stats - 2018 regular season

Good morning R/CFB. With the regular season finished, I thought I would take my stats knowledge (I'm enrolled in stats with a C+ so I'm kind of an expert) and wanted to see the biggest correlation between a select amount of stats and wins. Here is the data.

In stats, weak correlation is between |0| and |.3|, moderate correlation is between |.3| and |.7| and strong correlation is between |.7| and |1|. Of the stats annalyzed, only 7 stats came with >|.7| correlation.

Scoring and yardage margin being at the top of the correlation makes the most sense. Since points is what determines wins or losses, it had the highest correlation. However, some teams that stood out. 10 teams that were bowl eligible had a negative scoring margin, while 2 teams that were not bowl eligible had a positive scoring margin. The teams:

Team

Wins

Scoring Margin

NIU

8

-0.8

Hawai'i

8

-3.3

USF

7

-2.3

WMU

7

-0.1

Pittsburgh

7

-2.2

Duke

7

-0.2

Louisiana

7

-1.2

VT

6

-0.9

Wyoming

6

-1.3

ULM

6

-5.2

And the 2 teams that had a positive scoring margin but not bowl eligible:

Team

Wins

Scoring Margin

Air Force

5

4.5

Texas Tech

5

6.2

Second is yards/game margin. This also isn't very shocking because the more you out yard your opponent, the more likely you are to score. There were 12 bowl eligible teams that had a negative yard/game margin. They were:

Team

Wins

Yard/Game Margin

Northwestern

8

-33.9

Pittsburgh

7

-29.7

Duke

7

-26.8

Tulane

6

-24.9

Northern Illinois

8

-22.8

Wake Forest

6

-22.1

Vanderbilt

6

-22

Stanford

8

-20.2

Minnesota

6

-15.7

ULM

6

-15

VT

6

-9.9

Hawai'i

8

-3.9

On the flip side, there were 7 teams that had a positive yards/game margin that didn't get to 6 wins. Those teams:

Team

Wins

Yard/Game Margin

FAU

5

+54.4

Air Force

5

+53.9

Texas Tech

5

+36.3

Arizona

5

+25.7

Nebraska

4

+22.7

Colorado

5

+12.3

Charlotte

5

+5.8

Next is Yards/play margin. This is your yards/play during the season subtracted by your opponents yards/play. Not to clog the feed, I won't include a table, but the team names. The following teams had a negative yards/play margin and was still bowl eligible:

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The following teams had a positive yards/play margin and did not get bowl eligible:

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4th, we had punts/game margin. This one having the 4th highest correlation is surprising to me, that punting has a significant correlation to wins. It makes sense the less you punt and the more your opponent punts, the more likely you are to be scoring points.

The following teams had a negative punt/game margin and were still bowl eligible (meaning they punted more than their opponents per game):

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The following teams had a positive punt/game margin and were not bowl eligible:

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Fifth, was first down margin/game. This surprised me being below the punts/game margin but also makes sense. Getting more first downs than your opponent gives you a scoring chance.

The following teams had a negative first down/game margin and were still bowl eligible:

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The following teams had a positive first down/game margin and were not bowl eligible:

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Second to last is 3rd down margin. Your teams third down % subtracted by your opponents third down %. This is a good stat to see if drives can be completed, and makes sense why there is a strong correlation.

The following teams had a negative 3rd down margin % and were still bowl eligible:

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The following teams had a positive 3rd down margin % and were not bowl eligible:

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LAST, is TFL yard margin/game (teams TFL yards/game subtracted by opponents TFL yards/game). This one surprised me the most, because of all the stats, I would have predicted other stats (sacks, turnovers) to have more correlation to wins. But TFL yard margin/game is up there.

The following teams had a negative TFL yard/game margin and were still bowl eligible:

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The following teams had a positive TFL yard/game margin and were not bowl eligible:

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TLDR: Found correlations between a bunch of stats and team wins, found 7 with a strong correlation. Listed teams that were negative and bowl eligible and positive and not bowl eligible.