Poll: Duggan leads in Detroit mayoral race; Napoleon close behind

May 1, 2013

Mike Duggan passes members of the news media as he files paperwork to run for mayor of Detroit at the Coleman A. Young Municipal Center on Tuesday, April 2, 2013. / Kathleen Galligan/Detroit Free Press

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Detroit Free Press Staff Writer

A new poll puts former Detroit Medical Center CEO Mike Duggan in the lead in the race for Detroit mayor, with he and Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon strongly ahead of other candidates, including Mayor Dave Bing, who has yet to say he will seek another term.

The automated phone poll of 500 likely Detroit voters conducted Wednesday and Thursday put Duggan ahead at nearly 34.8%, with Napoleon second, at 27.4%, and Bing third, at 11%. The poll was conducted by Target-Insyght and the Lansing political newsletter MIRS.

Former top Detroit city attorney Krystal Crittendon was fourth, with 7.3%, followed by a tie for fifth between former state Rep. Lisa Howze and four-time mayoral candidate Tom Barrow, who had 4.7%.

State Rep. Fred Durhal Jr., D-Detroit, trailed the pack at 2.5%, and 7.6% of voters were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

“We’re pleased to see that Mike is back in the lead,” spokesman Bryan Barnhill said today.

Barnhill said a poll that put Napoleon ahead reflected a bump in numbers after he formally entered the race.

“Now that both campaigns are settled back in ... at this point, the majority of Detroit voters believe Mike Duggan is the best candidate for mayor.”

A representative for Napoleon had no immediate comment.

Target-Insyght pollster Ed Sarpolus said the numbers show Duggan has amassed a solid, steady core of voters that crosses race, gender and age demographics, and that he leads in all but one of the city’s seven city council wards — the fourth ward — where he tied with Napoleon.

Napoleon’s numbers tend to fluctuate as other candidates enter the race, indicating “he doesn’t have a solid base that he can count on in the city yet,” Sarpolus said this morning. “That’s not to say he can’t gain that.”

It’s the first major poll since Bing pulled nominating petitions last week to begin collecting voter signatures he’ll need to get on the ballot, but the mayor did not say he will definitely run for a second full term.

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So far, only Duggan, Barrow and Howze have turned in nominating signatures. Candidates are required to collect 500 valid signatures to make the August ballot.

Sarpolus said the early numbers set up an intriguing battle, signaling that Duggan and Napoleon are front-runners to make it past the Aug. 6 primary, which whittles the field to two.

After the primary, it will be an all-out battle for voters who sided with the candidates who didn’t win, and if Duggan can shore up his base support to 40% or more, he’s in strong shape to take on Napoleon, who was ahead in a poll last week by Main Street Strategies, a Lansing-based political advocacy and communications firm. That poll found Napoleon leading Duggan, 39%-35%, but with a stronger 45%-35% lead for Napoleon in a head-to-head match up.

The Main Street Strategies poll targeted likely voters who had voted in Democratic primaries, but the Target-Insyght/MIRS poll included Democratic primary voters and Independents. Sarpolus said Independents tend to be younger and more educated, and they lean toward Duggan.

Sarpolus said the numbers show Duggan and Napoleon have work to do in differentiating themselves and redefining why opponents aren’t the right person for the job, while trailing candidates have to focus on boosting their name recognition. Bing, he said, will have to reframe his tenure, given that Detroit went into state receivership on his watch and now has an emergency manager running the city.