Is It Going To Happen Again?

By garylezak, on June 22nd, 2018

Good morning bloggers,

There is another chance of a big drink of water for our lawns showing up later this weekend. Let’s look at four computer model outputs, and then open up the discussion below. We will start with the NAM, with the second model being the GFS, then the Canadian model, and finally the European Model:

The four models have varying rainfall forecasts:

NAM: 4.11″

GFS: 2.01″

Canadian: 0.64″

Euro: 0.72″

It has been baffling in attempting to describe how there is a “miss” every time. Oh, some of us have gotten a decent rainfall here and there, but I do not believe there has been even one wide spread rainfall or snowfall in this years LRC that hit the entire KC viewing area region, which extends from Maryville, near the Iowa border to Pleasanton and Garnett Kansas, farther south, and from just east of Topeka, KS to Sedalia, MO. And, is it about to happen again? If any of you have looked at the models closely, then you may realize that there is always a model that is much lower than the others. And, this varies from storm to storm. One storm could show 5″ of snow on three of the the four models, but one model shows a solution with nothing. There could be all four models showing 5″ of snow, and then the HRRR short range model shows nothing. For Kansas City there has been zero consensus on the models. There is always one the shows the miss. And, just looking above, today it is the Canadian model for this next good chance. It is the lowest amount, basically showing another miss. This does not mean that we won’t finally break through Sunday into Monday, but it is another warning sign.

What do I think will happen? Answer: There will be at least two or three big complexes of thunderstorms between now and Tuesday. And, I will go with the models and say anywhere from 0.5″ to over 4″ are possible.

Have a great day. Let’s see how this sets up. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.