Florida's calendar crashing pays off

Even Democrats, who opposed the early primary out of concern about possible 2008-style retribution from the national party, say they hope to see a prominent – and sanctioned – role for Florida in future presidential primaries.

“The experience of 2008 was one that made us very committed to compliance this year,” said Florida Democratic Party Chairman Rod Smith, whose national party has decided not to dock Florida delegates at the Democratic convention in Charlotte.

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“I hope we continue to operate within the national rules and that would be my recommendation for whoever my successor may be,” Smith said. “On the other hand, I think that a debate on the national level, party-wise, about the primary is something that should be revisited after 2012. It should be. I think Florida certainly deserves a spotlight in the process and I thought it should have in 2008.”

Looking ahead to 2016, some of the implications of another early Florida primary are obvious. It would be a huge boon to a native candidate – Marco Rubio, say, or Jeb Bush – for the state to vote early once again.

Whether Florida’s success in challenging the nominating calendar prompts other states to do the same next cycle remains to be seen, and some national Republicans are skeptical of the idea that a stampede is coming.

There are few states with Florida’s political swat; next time, not even this state may be both a crucial general election state and the host of one party’s national convention. Only a handful– perhaps Ohio or Virginia or Pennsylvania – could pull off an identical stunt, and none of those states have been inclined to try in the past.

Former Ohio Republican Party Chairman Robert Bennett, who sits on the RNC, emphasized that “most of the states want to follow the rules and most of the states really feel that starting on the first of February is soon enough in the primary process.”

“If you really look at it, I don’t think they’ve gotten away with anything,” Bennett said of Florida. “The delegates that are at stake in Florida for the Republicans are half of what they would be if they hadn’t moved their primary … I think the legislature down there, frankly, was operating with rectal-cranial inversion.”

Former RNC general counsel David Norcross shrugged that despite Florida’s insubordination, most of the calendar remained intact, in roughly the form the national parties intended.

“We’re pretty happy the way this schedule has worked out so far in spite of Florida,” he said. “None of us are very happy with Florida, but that’s that.”

If anyone has taken the shine off the traditional early states this cycle, Norcross said, it may have been those states themselves, with some of the screwball disorganization in the first round of voting.

“How foolish is it for everyone to go to Iowa the first week in January and they can’t even get the vote right?” Norcross asked. “All of that effort and all of that money for a straw poll that picks no delegates. It’s just – it’s a joke on all of us.”