An observation evoked an idle musing.Bitcoin started to be taken seriously at a parity of 1 USD. It then saw an awakening that lead to a peak of 31 USD. It then fell to around 1/10 of that between 1 and 3.1 USD. Speculators love orders of magnitude leveraging at increments of 10x but Bitcoin seems to respond to PI ratios. Let's look for the next bubble to go beyond 10*PI and then another 10*PI or around 9-10K USD. That liquidity should serve the geek market for development of new online apps. The next wave of development into sophisticated everyday useful finacial vehicles should take Bitcoin to another 10*PI or around 300K USD. After that, when fiat currencies are replaced by cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin will be worth the equivalent of another 10*PI or around 10M USD.

Sir, you have a sample size of exactly 1 (or 2 depending on how you look at it). HUGE, eh?

An observation evoked an idle musing.Bitcoin started to be taken seriously at a parity of 1 USD. It then saw an awakening that lead to a peak of 31 USD. It then fell to around 1/10 of that between 1 and 3.1 USD. Speculators love orders of magnitude leveraging at increments of 10x but Bitcoin seems to respond to PI ratios. Let's look for the next bubble to go beyond 10*PI and then another 10*PI or around 9-10K USD. That liquidity should serve the geek market for development of new online apps. The next wave of development into sophisticated everyday useful finacial vehicles should take Bitcoin to another 10*PI or around 300K USD. After that, when fiat currencies are replaced by cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin will be worth the equivalent of another 10*PI or around 10M USD.

Sir, you have a sample size of exactly 1 (or 2 depending on how you look at it). HUGE, eh?

edit: I should note that pi is roughly the square root of 10.

Before anyone beats me to it:[photo snipped]

Yes, PI is roughly the square root of ten. Interesting. Anyway, computing the predictability of a complex market adapting to bitcoin is hard to gauge. I suspect it will parallel the growth of internet bandwidth traffic.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.

By the way, chodpaba, I know your charts don't rely on market depth, but I think they should take it into account. Bitcoin moves in spikes (usually). If, for example, someone bought 20k BTC right now, it would push the price to 4.6, past your two huge walls.

That would be price on the right side of those flat spots in the curve. Price has less friction on those 'plateaus'. It doesn't describe how fast price moves through the range, but how much volume it is likely to take. The resistance curve says it should take less volume to move through a price range on the flat spots.