KALAK, Iraq — A religious war between the Shiite majority and Sunni minority has begun, and nobody knows how it might turn out, was Abdullah Saed’s conclusion as he and his wife joined a jostling line of refugees trying to find safe haven in this northern corner of Iraq.

Kurdish peshmerga fighters have successfully repelled several violent probes by hardline Islamist rebels from the Islamic State of Iraq & Al-Sham (ISIS), but have not been in anything like the bloody clashes and tit-for-tat murders that have rent Sunni and Shiite communities further south.

“I guess [the war] has already started,” added the doctoral candidate in computer science at an Australian university.

The Saeds and thousands of others were hoping to find refuge in Kalak from the rapidly spreading conflict. It already involves Syria and Iran, and may soon draw in other Arab countries, Turkey and the U.S., despite the Obama government’s strong reluctance to get involved.

People waiting to have their documents examined by Kurdish authorities spoke of their bewilderment at how Iraq’s army turned and ran last week, rather than defend the country’s second-largest city from the Sunni extremists racing down the road from neighbouring Syria.

“We never expected that. We all thought that they could control the situation in a few days,” said Mr. Saed, who is a Sunni moderate.

“There were a really huge number of soldiers there, but they couldn’t do anything. They just left their bases and ran away.”

About 100 metres away were the charred remains of U.S.-built Humvees and other military vehicles that had been towed to the Kurdish region to be sold for scrap after being abandoned by government forces in Mosul.

Yunis Hassan, another refugee, said residents were “shocked” by the behaviour of the Iraqi army. “They just disappeared. ISIS is controlling the area. It is hard to see the army there again soon.”

The baker, who was with his veiled wife and three children, said they had made the journey because they feared airstrikes “and this was the safest place we could go.”

In something of an understatement, Mr. Saed added, “The situation in Mosul is a bit unclear [because] there is no government there. People are afraid now and for the future.”

It was possible, he said, there could be “a dangerous military action” by the government.

Such a counter-punch has been promised for days now by Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister.

But while the Shiite leader has talked tough, ISIS fighters have carried the battle to within 60 kilometres of Baghdad. They have also shored up their rear by taking Tal Afar, the last city near the Syrian border not under their control.

“Al-Maliki is a loser who belongs to Iran,” shouted Wafaa Walam Mirza as her husband tried unsuccessfully to get her to lower her voice, lest any Shiites might be listening. “Al-Maliki does nothing for us. He takes his orders from Tehran.”

Other refugees dreaded what was coming.

“I am expecting religious rule and how can I like that,” said Khaled Tariq Ahmed, who sold cigarettes for a living.

“If there is a war there will be heavy Sunni and Shiite losses. All I know is that it will be poor people who die.”

Members of the city’s small Christian community were even more fearful. Salwan Saban recalled the jihadis had murdered many Christians in cities such as Aleppo during the civil war in Syria and had vowed violence against anyone who would not follow their dire interpretation of Islamic religious law.

With a tattoo that said Jesus on his arm, Mr. Saban was at particular risk.

“We are afraid for our lives,” he said as he and two Assyrian Catholic friends waited in their car. “You must be Muslim or they will kill you.”

Iraqi television commentators have spoken often in recent days about how Iraq was likely to split in three, with Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish states.

“Nobody wants to divide up the country like a piece of cake, but we don’t make the decisions by ourselves,” Mr. Saed said.

“The government and international community will play a role in deciding what is the future. But we hope that they take the unity of Iraq into account.”

Nevertheless, he conceded, “It is really hard to repair what happened because the gap now is really huge.”

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