Math Catches Up With Knicks

The Team Regresses to the Mean as Three-Point Shooting, Defensive Numbers Fall Back to Earth

By

Chris Herring

Dec. 28, 2012 7:37 p.m. ET

It's been an absolute grind for the Knicks as of late. Going into their road game in Sacramento Friday night, they'd played in four straight contests that went down to the wire.

Dramatic finishes and desperate last-second shots have been a running theme in recent weeks, a reversal from the way things were during the first month of the season, when the Knicks strolled through blowouts nearly every night.

ENLARGE

The Knicks were fourth in the NBA in defensive rating over their first 10 games. Since then, they've fallen to 22nd.
Reuters

The stifling defense and clockwork-style offense, which often helped New York put away its opponents after just three quarters in November, has leveled off somewhat on the way to a 21-8 start. And the team, among the league's most injury-depleted, has noticed the difference.

"Every game isn't going to be a runaway or a blowout," coach Mike Woodson said after a narrow 94-91 victory Sunday over the Timberwolves.

But blowouts were the norm early on. The Knicks were the league's last undefeated club and became just the third team in NBA history to win their first five games of the season by double digits. They were surprisingly dominant on both ends over the first 10 games, ranking in the top five in the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

New York's hot start raised questions about how sustainable this output could be. But the Knicks' play in their last 19 games suggests they're regressing to the mean.

Some things, particularly the number of players who started out red-hot from three-point range, seemed certain to change over time.

During that opening stretch, six different players—Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, Jason Kidd, Raymond Felton, Ronnie Brewer and Chris Copeland—were shooting at least 40% from the three-point line, a feat that's only been accomplished by two clubs over a full season in NBA history, according to Stats LLC.

Now, just four Knick players with 20 attempts or more are at the mark. Brewer's drop has been the most considerable, as he's made just 20.6% of his long-distance tries since Nov. 25 after hitting 44% to start the year. Felton, who will miss the next four to six weeks with a fractured right pinkie, was also struggling before he left the lineup: He's shot 27.7% from distance since Nov. 25—down from the 45% he made before then.

Steve Novak, one of the few players who's improved since the season's start, said the team was bound to have tougher times than they did early on.

"There are gonna be times where shots don't fall," he said. "But as long as we're getting the shots we want, I think you want to stick to the game plan. These are the shots we want, and they'll fall again at some point."

Over the past month, the team has been short-handed. Anthony, who is out day-to-day, sat out a second straight game Friday with an injured left leg, leaving the Knicks without five of their 10 best players. Woodson said the Knicks hoped to have Amar'e Stoudemire (left knee) and Rasheed Wallace (left foot) back by New Year's Day. Iman Shumpert (left knee) and Felton will most likely return in February or March.

Another problem: The defense has been a shell of its former self. The Knicks were fourth in the NBA in defensive rating over their first 10 games, allowing just 96.1 points per 100 possessions. Since then, they've fallen to 22nd in the league, allowing 105.1 points per 100 possessions.

That, Jason Kidd said, is the biggest reason for any drop the team has experienced.

"You're going to make some, and you're going to miss some from behind the arc," he said. "But with us, we're going to set ourselves apart with our defense. We're at our best when we do that."

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