SRI LANKA: What will end game of Sri Lanka’s war mean for civilians?

A woman walks near barbed wire at an internally displaced camp set up in Vavuniya for Tamils who have escaped the war zone.

Sri Lanka’s government says its 25-year war is nearing its conclusion as troops close in on Tamil Tiger rebels cornered in a tiny patch of land on the northeast coast. Aid agencies are warning of possibly dire humanitarian consequences for tens of thousands of civilians trapped with the Tigers in the shrinking war zone. And even after the conflict is over, the fate of civilians remains a serious concern. Here are some questions and answers about the fate of civilians caught up in Asia’s longest-running war:

HOW MANY CIVILIANS ARE AFFECTED? According to the United Nations and Red Cross, about 150,000 civilians are trapped inside the rapidly shrinking “no-fire zone”, a strip of land just 7 km long and 2 km wide (4 miles by 1.2 miles) along the northeastern coast. The government says that there are less than 100,000 there. The United Nations and rights groups say the Tigers have held people as human shields or conscripts. Some civilians who have managed to flee the no-fire zone report being fired on by the rebels or seeing friends and relatives forcibly recruited to fight. The U.N. and rights groups also say the government has shelled the densely packed no-fire zone, which the government denies as Tiger propaganda. Aid workers estimate about 5,000 civilians have managed to escape in the past two weeks, joining around 65,000 people who are being held in government-controlled camps.

WHAT ARE THE CONDITIONS IN THE NO-FIRE ZONE? Aid agencies say those inside the tiny no-fire zone are living in inhuman conditions. They have little shelter, food, water or medicine. They say the conditions are extremely cramped with people literally living on top of one another under tarpaulin sheets. Food from the U.N. World Food Programme has been delivered by ship to the area with the help of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), but the U.N. says this is only about 25 percent of what is actually required. Outbreaks of chicken pox, measles and water-borne diseases are common due to the cramped conditions, poor sanitation and the arrival of intra-monsoonal rains. Government officials have reported to relief organisations that people are dying from malnutrition-related causes due to lack of food. The ICRC has managed to evacuate thousands of wounded people and some of their families by sea, but otherwise there is no real humanitarian access to the area.

WHAT ARE THE CONDITIONS IN THE GOVERNMENT CAMPS? The situation in the camps is better than in the no-fire zone but civilians who are kept there have no freedom of movement. Aid workers say the lack of information is one of the biggest concerns for people since they have little freedom to communicate. Mobile phones are not permitted and it is not uncommon to see people standing at the camps’ fences talking to relatives who cannot come inside. People do have access to regular food, water and shelter. Some agencies feel medical facilities are inadequate. Aid agencies face restrictions in gaining access to the camps. Only Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), ICRC and the U.N. refugee agency (UNHCR) have access to all the camps. Other agencies have access to selected camps, which are tightly controlled. Aid workers and anyone heading into northern Sri Lanka has to go through various checkpoints to gain access. The government has often blamed some aid agencies of allowing Tiger sympathisers to infiltrate their ranks and smuggle weapons.

WHY ARE PEOPLE NOT ALLOWED TO LEAVE THE CAMPS? Those in the camps are internally displaced people fleeing the conflict, but everyone agrees there are also hardcore cadres of the Tamil Tigers, sympathisers and those who have been forcefully recruited by the rebels. The government says these people could pose a security risk, noting that a suspected Tamil Tiger suicide bomber blew herself up at a refugee reception centre in February and killed at least 28 civilians and soldiers and wounded 90. It has therefore restricted their movement and communications. But aid agencies say many of the camp dwellers obviously do not pose a security threat, such as the elderly, the sick and wounded and unaccompanied children. They are calling for these people to be released to help ease overcrowding – particularly if there is a sudden influx of people from the no-fire zone in coming days or weeks. The government plans to register those in the camps and aid workers say this could help inform people where their relatives are in other camps. The government this week said it would start resettling people in camps in northwestern Sri Lanka, who have been in the longest, from May. The registration plan has been largely welcomed by aid groups and international donors but some rights groups say it could lead to segregation of certain groups from the rest of the population.

WHAT COULD HAPPEN TO THOSE TRAPPED IN THE NO-FIRE ZONE? Aid workers say there are three possible scenarios. First is that the government and rebels agree a cessation in hostilities to allow humanitarian relief into the area or civilians to leave. Commentators say this is unlikely. Another scenario is that there will be some kind of military move on the part of the government and they will try to take the whole of the no-fire zone and weed out the Tamil Tiger fighters. Aid workers fear high human casualties in this scenario since so many civilians are packed into such a small area, with Tamil Tiger fighters seeded among them. A third scenario is that the government plays a waiting game, hoping the Tigers will exhaust their ammunition. Aid workers say the humanitarian impact of such a siege on civilians could be severe, with food, water and medicines already in short supply.

WHAT COULD HAPPEN IF MORE AND MORE PEOPLE ESCAPE FROM THE NO-FIRE ZONE? Aid workers say a large influx of people concentrated in a single area, such as around Vavuniya, could overwhelm camps, hospitals and other facilities. MSF and other groups are stepping up some of their operations in preparation for such a possibility.

IF THE WAR ENDS, WILL CIVILIANS IN THE CAMPS BE RELEASED? While the government has said it would like some of the civilians to return to their homes by the end of the year, aid agencies remain sceptical, saying they would like to see an action plan showing how this would happen. The selection criteria for sending people to the camps is unknown, and aid workers say more transparency is needed from the government. Relief workers say it is unfair to class all civilians as a security threat and suggest that individuals should be judged on a case-by-case basis. Those who do not present a security threat ought to be released as soon as possible and people ultimately should be allowed to return home, they say. Many analysts expect rebel guerrilla activity to continue even after any end to the military campaign, meaning a continuation of unrest for quite some time. As a result, they say civilians in the camps might be kept there indefinitely. Much depends on whether the government can negotiate a political settlement that will help ease tensions and lessen any security threats following the end of military operations.

ARE AID AGENCIES PREPARED TO ADDRESS PEOPLE’S NEEDS AFTER THE CONFLICT? The U.N. says it has all the necessary supplies ready to address the humanitarian needs of the population. Other relief organisations are stockpiling supplies for when they have access to the affected communities. In Vavuniya, most NGOs are adopting a wait-and-see approach while they gather supplies in readiness for any end to the conflict or for being allowed into the camps to provide assistance. Do aid agencies have the funds they need? In February, the United Nations appealed to international donors for $155 million to cover aid programmes in sectors diverse as water and sanitation, shelter, economic recovery and agriculture. As of April, the appeal was only 11 percent funded.

HOW PREPARED IS THE GOVERNMENT FOR THE POST-CONFLICT HUMANITARIAN SITUATION? Aid agencies say the government has consistently remained suspicious of their work, often throwing up bureaucratic obstacles to make operations difficult. The government and military control all distribution of relief to affected communities, and points out it has done so despite the fact much of what it has sent ends up in the hands of the Tigers. Some construction materials sent after the 2004 tsunami ended up being used to build Tiger defences and bunkers, it says. Some aid workers feel that in a post-conflict situation the government would not be prepared to deal with people’s needs. One aid worker compared the situation to Iraq, saying the government seemed so totally focused on the military campaign that preparations for the post-conflict phase were seriously lacking.

WHAT COULD CIVILIANS FACE IF THEY RETURN HOME AFTER THE CONFLICT? Many villages have been utterly devastated by the war. Aid workers describe much of the northern swathe of the country as being like a ghost town. Many areas are also littered with mines, booby traps and unexploded ordnance. Aid agencies say there will have be some long-term reconstruction projects in place to help people rehabilitate. Without full access to war-torn areas it will be difficult for aid workers to conduct proper needs assessments. Such access is unlikely given the current security situation. Health workers also say the mental health of communities affected by 25 years of conflict is an issue that desperately needs to be addressed. Many have lived under very difficult circumstances, lost their relatives and risked their lives trying to flee the conflict. Many civilians talk of spending endless hours in bunkers being shelled and seeing people wounded or killed in front of them. MSF and others are setting up programmes to address the mental health needs of traumatised civilians.

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