Sarah Palin's next act: Candidate or 'Kardashian'?

In January 2009, Sarah Palin had the world on a string. A potential Republican presidential field-clearer for the presidency, every sentence she uttered was news. A Fox News contract awaited her. So did book deals.

Four years later, Palin is without a clear option for elected office — or a clear sense she has an interest in any position of real public influence. She never took an active, leadership role in the tea party movement, beyond showing up at a scattered handful of events and talking it up on television. For many Americans, her name is now primarily a punchline and if she is envisioning a comeback, it may simply be too late.

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Once as polarizing as a 1990s-era Hillary Clinton, she can still rouse the conservative base and create headline ripples, and has instincts for picking candidates in a primary battle that other Republicans follow. She is getting the most speaking time at CPAC when she takes the stage Saturday at the Gaylord National hotel in Maryland, and her speech is among the most anticipated.

But as a force within the party, Palin has gone from 60 to zero within the span of a single presidential cycle.

“There was a ton of potential there, and it’s conceivable that there could be a second act, but it’s a little hard to see it now,” said Weekly Standard Editor Bill Kristol, who championed Sarah from Alaska as a potential VP pick in 2008 for Sen. John McCain.

“She didn’t run, obviously, in 2012, and she hasn’t really made herself a leader on any particular issue,” added Kristol, arguing that one either needs to hold office or make themselves relevant on an issues front. “Usually you have to do one of those things … otherwise you’re just another pundit.”

Whether her speech will be a call to arms or something more revealing about her own future remains to be seen. But several Republicans privately said they’d grown weary of the lather, rinse, repeat by which Palin makes an appearance, creates a mystique, then disappears.

Conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer argued she has as much of a chance of a second act as Joe Biden managed after being “laughed out of the race” in 1988 amid a plagiarism scandal.

However, he added, “Her act as a celebrity is done. Her act as a political figure is possible — if she applies herself.”

Ed Rollins, who managed Ronald Reagan’s campaign, and, more recently, the presidential bid of another woman who was a favorite of the base — Michele Bachmann — said plainly: “Her moment in the sun … has gone.”

“Being a talking head … was not something that sustained her as a viable candidate,” he added. “She’s a personality in the same way the Kardashian family is.”

Palin’s downward trajectory is almost in direct proportion to her rise after the 2008 cycle.

She was the part of the John McCain ticket that had endurance — or seemed to — as she tapped into a populist sentiment within the Republican base, pre-dating the rise of the tea party. Political pros on both sides might have mocked Palin, but they also readily acknowledged her raw but undeniable talent.

Her unvarnished, “mama grizzly” cred and unapologetic chastising of the liberal establishment helped vault her to a leadership role, albeit an unofficial one.

Her endorsement was not only seen as a golden seal of approval within Republican primary politics, but she was a major boost in fundraising for candidates. She was crucial in helping get South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte elected in 2010, for instance.

Yet even those who were beneficiaries of her political swat concede her only real role now is playing in primaries. “I think she still has an ability to ignite activists, and I also think that she is someone who is relatively young. I’m sure it’s not the last that we’ve heard of her,” Ayotte told POLITICO.