ACCUSCORE ANALYSIS: Broncos at Chargers

AccuScore runs 10,000 computer simulations of NFL games, one play at a time, to project likely outcomes. Here is its assessment of today's Chargers game against the Broncos.

In AccuScore's preseason simulations, the Chargers had a sky-high 84 percent chance of making the playoffs. After starting 4-8, the Chargers looked like they would make the AccuScore simulations look foolish. But here we are in Week 17 and the Chargers once again have an 84 percent chance of making the playoffs by virtue of having an 84 percent chance of beating Denver at home.

Everything you can imagine is going for the Chargers this week. Philip Rivers is on a roll with nine touchdowns and just one interception in his past three games. Over 10,000 simulations, Rivers is posting some tremendous stats against Denver: 20-for-30, 270 yards, 2.2 TDs, 0.5 INTs. Rivers has as good a chance of having three or more touchdown passes (38 percent) as he does of having even one interception (also 38 percent).

Second, LaDainian Tomlinson was able to produce a big game when the team needed it with 110 total yards against Tampa Bay. In simulations in which LT has over 75 rushing yards, the Chargers are virtual locks, winning 92 percent of the time. If he is held under 75 yards, the Chargers still are heavy 69 percent favorites despite just 2.9 yards per carry by LT.

Finally, last week the Broncos lost their sixth and seventh running backs of the season to injury. They are likely to roll out Tatum Bell and rookie Cory Boyd, who are averaging just 3.3 ypc in simulations. Bell has just a 9 percent chance of having 100-plus rushing yards. If he does have a huge game, the Broncos do drastically increase their chances of winning from 16 percent to 42 percent.

The Chargers are heavy favorites but cannot get cocky. LT has been held under 80 rushing yards in nine games this season. There's a 37 percent chance he is held under 80 this week, and the Chargers' chances decline to 71 percent when he does. Rivers has thrown an interception in eight games this year. There's a 39 percent chance he has at least one INT this week, and the Chargers win 78 percent of these simulations. Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler has eight games this season with multiple passing TDs. There's a 40 percent chance he does this in Week 17, and if he does, the Chargers win just 76 percent of the time.
While none of these three factors alone is likely to cost the Chargers the game, if all three are in play the game becomes a coin flip, with both teams having a 50 percent chance of winning.

With so many reasons to favor the Chargers this week, there is no way they can lose this game – right?