Saturday, 10 January 2015

#GE2015 Forecast by ElectionsEtc

Happy New Year! Our first forecast of 2015 finds the polls little changed since our last of 2014.
The Conservatives have recovered a point, meaning they now trail Labour
by just one point in our polling average, 32% to 33%. The Lib Dems have
held steady on 9% and UKIP are down one to 14%.
That means a slight improvement for the Tories in our model’s
forecast: their chances of winning the most seats are up from 45% three
weeks ago to 48% now; their chances of a majority are up from 16% to
19%.
Our central forecast is for the Tories to win the most votes – with
34% to Labour’s 31.2% –but come out with slightly fewer seats than
Labour: 294 to 297 (with the Lib Dems on 29).
However, we have yet to finalise a new method that properly takes
into account the SNP’s rise and Labour’s fall in Scotland – we’ll be
introducing it in the next week or two. That means that, for the moment,
our forecasts come with a big health warning: they are likely to
overestimate Labour.
If you want to do a rough-and-ready adjustment, the Labour-to-SNP
swing in Scotland probably means around 35 seats off Labour’s total and 5
off the Lib Dems’. Clearly, therefore, the chances of Labour being the
largest party are lower than the 52% our current model suggests – in
reality, the Scottish situation means the Conservatives are clearly the
favourites. Similarly, the likelihood of a Labour majority if probably
somewhat lower than the 21% in this week’s forecast, and that of a Hung
Parliament is probably higher than 60%.
Once we launch our new method, we’ll continue to run our old method
alongside it as a kind of benchmark, showing what things would more
typically looked like with GB-wide three party dynamics only.

UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 SEATS WON

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