Florida wants early primary, more clout

WASHINGTON -- Already a vote-rich megastate, Florida is looming as an even bigger prize in 2008 as lawmakers prepare to move up the state's presidential-primary date to increase its political influence.

A bipartisan group of legislators wants to change the state's presidential primary from March to as early as Jan. 29. Doing so, they say, could make Florida part of a group of states that want to have more influence over who is chosen to run for president.

Others aren't so sure, including national Democratic and Republican party leaders, who fear a war between the states seeking earlier primaries. They're so adamant, in fact, they're threatening to strip Florida and the other states of half of their delegates to the party conventions.

If California, Illinois and New Jersey also push forward their primaries, some candidates fear a flock of front-loaded, costly contests would determine a nominee sooner than ever. That could leave parties saddled with candidates who were chosen so quickly their faults didn't emerge until too late, said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "There won't be any time for buyer's remorse," he said.

The Democratic National Committee has complicated matters even more by proposing that Nevada hold a caucus between the Jan. 14 Iowa caucus and the Jan. 22 New Hampshire primary, and South Carolina hold a primary just days after New Hampshire.

The committee's goal was to showcase states with more minority voters. But the move has led to "chaos," said William Galvin, secretary of the commonwealth of Massachusetts and head of a primary committee for the National Association of Secretaries of State.

Holding numerous primaries so early in the year runs the risk of turning off voters because it would mean a longer general-election season, said Sabato. Even a political junkie would not be able to stand such a drawn-out campaign, he said.

But the Florida Legislature seems determined to move up its primary date. The measure, expected to come up in the spring, would advance the primary to either a week after New Hampshire's contest, which is currently scheduled for Jan. 22, or to Feb. 5, whichever comes first.

Florida's last presidential primary -- in March 2004 -- was six weeks after New Hampshire's. And it came after 28 states and the District of Columbia held caucuses or primaries and the nominations of George W. Bush and John Kerry were virtually certain.

One weapon available to the national parties would be to strip Florida of half of its convention delegates, but Sabato thinks that's "a bluff."

The parties, he said, aren't going to want to snub vote-rich states such as Florida. And by the time the conventions come around, having half as many delegates isn't going to matter much because a nominee already will have been decided.

Sabato expects many states -- such as California and Florida -- to move their primaries. Feb. 5 could become something of a national primary with so many of them holding votes.

Many political scientists think that would benefit the best-known candidates.

But Sabato said it would just give the winners of the New Hampshire primary and the Iowa caucuses all the more momentum. And those small states, where voters take their early influence very seriously, have a long history of giving dark-horse candidates a chance, he said.

Larger states with expensive media markets force candidates to begin campaigning very early. And in Florida, that has already begun.

In the past few weeks, former U.S. Sen. John Edwards, a North Carolina Democrat, has visited Central Florida. So have U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.; former Gov. Mitt Romney, a Massachusetts Republican; and U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan.

But the debate over the primary date is not affecting their strategies. They would be here regardless of when the election was held.

Still, many Floridians are convinced an earlier date would give the state a louder voice in choosing the next nominee.

Lawmakers supporting the move -- including House Speaker Marco Rubio, R-West Miami, and House Democratic Leader Dan Gelber of Miami Beach -- downplay the risk of being punished.

They say the political parties would be reluctant to punish a major state like Florida. And even if they did, many say, Floridians would still feel as though they made more of a difference in determining a nominee than under the current calendar.

"Why wouldn't we do it?" Republican Gov. Charlie Crist said this week.