Indiana: The Obama state that got away

5/18/12 4:38 PM EDT

Indiana voted narrowly for Barack Obama in 2008, but few see the state as within the president's reach this year. Even the Obama campaign has sent signals that it's a low priority.

The most recent public poll bolsters the notion that Indiana isn't in play: According to a late March Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll, just 39 percent approve of the president's job performance. In a matchup with Obama, Mitt Romney led 49 percent to 40 percent.

This Associated Press story today by Thomas Beaumont provides an overview of why Indiana is the one Obama 2008 state that's been all but written off in 2012.

GARY, Ind. — Barack Obama was the first Democrat in 44 years to win Indiana in the 2008 presidential race. A repeat coup seems doubtful this year.

Even Democrats see the current political environment in this conservative-leaning state as far more challenging. The economy is still struggling, Republicans have made steady gains in state and federal elections in the past four years and the regional pride that came with voting for a senator from a neighboring state — Obama is from Illinois — is all but gone.

Longtime Sen. Richard Lugar's loss to tea-party-backed Richard Mourdock in the GOP Senate primary gives some Democrats hope that Indiana could become more competitive by November. But for now at least, it appears most likely to be scratched off the list of states in Obama's 2008 win column.

"None of the factors that helped him in 2008 are going to be there this time," said Kip Tew, an Indianapolis lawyer who chaired Obama's statewide campaign when he became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to carry Indiana...

Obama aides try to lower expectations about winning Indiana again, calling the state a unique opportunity in 2008 and suggesting it's not high on the priority list this time. Of the three historically conservative states Obama won that year, aides see the other two — North Carolina and Virginia — as more competitive given the favorable changes in voting and demographic patterns there as compared to Indiana.