Harvey redevelops in southern Gulf, will bring major rains to Texas

Posted by Eric Berger at 10:22 AM on August 23, 2017

Just a quick post to note the official redevelopment of Harvey as a tropical depression in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track mirrors what we’ve been discussing for a couple of days now—the movement of a tropical storm into the Texas coast, after which its slows down, and drenches the eastern part of the state.

The official forecast predicts Harvey will reach hurricane strength—barely a Category 1 storm with 75mph—before it reaches the Texas coast. Tropical Storm watches are in effect for Galveston and the Galveston Bay area. Hurricane watches are in effect for Brazoria County, and areas southwest of Houston. But the primary concern with this system remains widespread rainfall and inland flooding. The hurricane center’s rain forecast for Harvey reflects this:

(National Hurricane Center)

Our forecast from this morning largely holds up, as it is based on similar model data that made up the National Hurricane Center’s outlook. We will post a more comprehensive update this afternoon, around 2:30pm. In the meantime, here is what Matt and I feel you should bear in mind about the next several days.

The rainfall hype is real and serious, and although it’s impossible to specifically forecast it at this time, you need to be aware of the threat.

The forecast is going change, and in systems like this trying to pin down who gets maximum rainfall is extraordinarily difficult. Patience required.

The rains will be spread out from Friday through Tuesday, but for Houston we continue to expect the heavier rain during the latter half of that period.

TMR

Hi guys, thanks for the info. In the last post, you said that it’s not really known what triggers rapid intensification. Of the factors that are known, what’s in play here? Also, what gives the NHC confidence that intensity will stay low, given the high SST and intensity potential in the Bay of Campeche?

Pat

I will be delivering home meals for the hospital in Clute, Friday from 10:00-12:00am. Heavy rain shouldn’t start before then, right?
Thanks for all you do. Read your column in the Chronicle for as long as it was there. Sure do miss it, but the email is great!!

Jennifer

My mom and grandmother are panicking after watching the news. My reply is always the same. “We can’t worry about what the news says; we have to go see what Eric says.” Thank you for the sensible post and for not causing fear. I appreciate your straightforward, honest approach to weather.

Kenw

Leilanie

If this is one of those that stalls when it hits shore…..get ready folks. several years ago a tropical depression/storm hit and stalled and flooded homes built in the 50s and 60s that had NEVER flooded before…..Don’t remember the name.

Eric Berger

Eric, I’m honestly terrified of power outages. I have a feeling that there may be twice, maybe THREE times as many homes without power as during the Hurricane Ike aftermath. Will (WILL!) Harvey cause an areawide power outage that could last all the way to the Holiday Season?

And worse—-some say this might be as strong as Carla on landfall! SAY IT AIN’T SO!!!