Russia's tactics in hostage crisis poor - analysts

REUTERS

Fri 3 September, 2004 17:20

By Mark Trevelyan, Security Correspondent

BERLIN (Reuters) - The storming of a
school to free hundreds of Russian hostages looked more like a forced response
by special forces than a controlled and deliberately initiated raid at a time of
their choosing.

That was the prevalent view among about a dozen security
analysts speaking after the bloody and chaotic denouement of the three-day drama
in which at least a 100 appeared to have died.

"What the Russian government
desperately want for this to be is a controlled operation, a controlled siege, a
controlled ending to it. This is anything but that," said Hugh McManners, a
former member of Britain's SAS special forces.

The idea of an improvised
rescue mission was supported by comments from a Russian security official who
was quoted by Interfax news agency as saying the authorities had been preparing
for more talks, not for a raid.

However, experts were unanimous that the
Russians, even if they had not wanted to storm the school, must have made
contingenc y plans to do so if the heavily armed militants had started to
execute their captives.

"Whether or not the Russians initiated this shootout,
they would have had a plan in place for an all-out storming of the school should
the worst come to the worst," said Itay Gil, an Israeli counter-terrorist unit
veteran.

Charles Heyman, senior defence analyst at Jane's Consultancy Group,
said the refusal of the hostage-takers to allow deliveries of food and water
would probably have forced the Russians to intervene anyway on Friday.

WILD
WEST TACTICS

That being the case, some Western analysts were fiercely critical
of the Russian handling of the operation, with one describing it as resembling a
"Wild West gun fight". Another called it primitive.

"They were under the
illusion that they had an operating capability that they don't have, and they
used an outdated technique," said Edward Luttwak, senior fellow and the Center
for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

"I'd like to know if
they had turned to foreign experts or if for reasons of national pride it was
more important that they do it alone ... Those who launched the blitz were
brave but ill- prepared, and they launched a primitive raid that caused many
deaths."

Others were especially critical of the authorities' apparent failure
to seal off the area with an effective cordon to prevent both emotionally
involved civilians from getting mixed up in the rescue mission and militants
from escaping the scene. Tass news agency said a number of the rebels appeared
to have fled.

"In any normal country there would have been a security
perimeter at a distance of 1 km (5/8 mile), and there wouldn't have been a
single civilian in the zone," said Claude Moniquet of the European Strategic
Intelligence and Security Centre.

But he also believed the Russians had no
alternative but to storm the school.

"They had no choice in a situation like
that, with so many hostages, so many hostage-takers and children who had been
held three days without eating or drinkin g ... It would have been difficult
for any special services in the world."