000
FXUS63 KSGF 301956
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
It was an incredible day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the 80s under a mix of
sun and clouds. Humidity values were significantly lower, making
the air feel more comfortable than the past several days.
There were a couple of isolated showers in southeast Kansas and
and far southwest Missouri. We don`t think this will expand much,
and will likely dissipate over the next hour or so. Deeper
convection was located in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
This activity was associated with a frontal boundary lingering in
this area.
For tonight, look for comfortable weather with lows in the low to
mid 60s. Winds will be light and variable due to a Canadian high
pressure system hovering overhead.
Friday will be another decent day with highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s. Humidity values will remain in check, making for a nice
day.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Northwest flow will persist into the weekend as summertime ridging
becomes more focused over the deserts of New Mexico. Models don`t
seem to signal much in the way of thunderstorm activity this
weekend or into next work week.
However, sufficient moisture will exist for rain if any shortwave
disturbance migrates through the northwest flow. Therefore I`m
skeptical that we`ll stay dry through the extended forecast, even
though the models suggest we will. I suspect something will
change, and eventually a disturbance will approach the Ozarks
forcing some showers and thunderstorms at some point.
At any rate we do have a good idea that temperatures will range
from the upper 80s to the middle 90s through at least Tuesday.
A back door cold front by the middle of next week could send some
cooler air into southern Missouri.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. High
cloudiness is expected off and on over the next 12 hours or so.
We will closely monitor a complex of showers and storms over
portions of central/southeast Kansas through the afternoon. For now,
expect this complex to stay west of our terminals, however, lower
cigs are possible over JLN if the complex continues to build
eastward. Surface winds are expected to be light and shift to a
more southerly direction by midday Friday.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Frye