I’ve always been excited by using our knowledge of how our brains work to create better marketing, advertising, and sales strategies. That led me to write Brainfluence: 100 Ways to Persuade and Convince Consumers with Neuromarketing (Wiley, 2011) as well as my blog Neuromarketing. I always emphasize practical applications, not theory. I’m the founder of Dooley Direct, a marketing consultancy, and I co-founded College Confidential, the leading college-bound website. That business was acquired by Hobsons, a unit of UK-based DMGT, where I served as VP Digital Marketing and continue in a consulting role. I’ve spent years in direct marketing as the co-founder of a successful catalog firm, and before that directed corporate planning for a Fortune 1000 company. You can learn more about me and my speaking at RogerDooley.com. Follow me on Twitter at @rogerdooley, or on Google Plus at Roger Dooley.

Dozens of other outlets joined the “social media are mostly irrelevant” parade. It’s worth noting that least some of these media entities compete with Facebook, Twitter, LinkedInLinkedIn, etc. for advertising dollars.

There’s just one problem with the Gallup data that sparked this media storm – it’s rubbish! Or, if that’s too strong of a word, let’s call it “misleading.”

Facebook at Mozcon – Alex (Photo credit: Thos003)

First, I should say I love a lot of what Gallup does. In nearly every speech I give, I cite their “honesty and ethics by profession” data (which shows marketing and sales people narrowly lose to lobbyists and politicians for the not-very-coveted “most distrusted” ranking).

Second, Gallup’s methodology and statistical techniques are likely beyond reproach. Gallup does a massive amount of surveying globally, and I’m sure their number crunchers know what they are doing.

The problem with this particular data is that asking people to self-report why they bought something is doomed to fail. People are almost always incapable of accurately identifying the reasoning behind a purchase. In fact, “reasoning” overstates the reality of the situation. Many, if not most, decisions are made for emotional reasons or by using mental shortcuts that bypass logic and analysis.

Surveys aren’t always bad. You might be able to get reasonably accurate statistics for a question like, “Did you have cereal for breakfast today?”

Unfortunately, “why” questions are far more difficult. Ask BudweiserBudweiser drinkers why they choose that beer, and I’d guess most would cite “taste.” Few, if any, would cite “brand advertising,” even though the brand’s large annual spend (and years of history in shaping brand preferences with advertising) are no doubt a larger factor than the beer’s mostly indistinguishable flavor.

Books have been written on this topic. Neuroscientist Read Montague wrote Why Choose This Book?: How We Make Decisions that explored the complexity of buying decisions. Montague was also the researcher who showed that brand preferences trumped taste in a re-run of the Pepsi Challenge in an fMRI machine. Subjects preferred Pepsi in a blind test, Coke when they could see labels, and the drink labeled Coke when the actual colas were switched. This wasn’t just true in what the subjects stated; it was confirmed by their brain activity.

In Brain Branding: The Power of Strong Brands, I describe research showing that simply seeing a familiar brand name has a distinct effect on our brains compared to an unfamiliar brand. I’m sure few people would be aware of or admit to such an effect.

So what’s the truth about Facebook’s influence on purchases? The answer is that we can’t tell from the Gallup data. It could be that most buyers are not, in fact, influenced by social media. On the other hand, it could be that every consumer who is active in social media is influenced to some degree by brand messaging and commentary from friends. If I had to guess, I’d pick the latter.

There are a variety of reasons I think the effects of social media are higher than the Gallup survey would lead one to believe. We know that social proof is a big factor in the persuasion process, so seeing what others are using (and talking about) is probably more important than we’d acknowledge.

Another reason is brand exposure. Even brand impressions that we’re not consciously aware of increase our preference for that brand. (See Unconscious Branding: Who Needs Facts? and Low-Attention Branding. Just because we didn’t remember seeing the brand on Facebook doesn’t mean our brains didn’t process that exposure.

I’m sure every web property that is competing with social media for ad dollars is preparing some version of this Gallup data to bolster their own case. The only way to measure the real influence would be to expose subjects to the brand information (ads, comments from friends, branded content, etc.) and see how their purchases differed from others without that exposure. (TIME, to its credit, does point out the difference between survey data and behavioral data in the linked article.)

That’s not an easy experiment, but if I were Facebook I’d consider trying to produce some data based on actual consumer behavior rather than self-reporting.

Post Your Comment

Post Your Reply

Forbes writers have the ability to call out member comments they find particularly interesting. Called-out comments are highlighted across the Forbes network. You'll be notified if your comment is called out.

Comments

Consumers will always say that they’re not influenced by advertising and marketing, but as Roger points out, the reality is a bit more complex. The advent of television and mass media built a lot of brands in the 1960s. And in survey after survey, consumers said they pay no attention to advertising. In many surveys, consumers said they’d be more likely to buy a product if they did away with the advertising and lowered the price. Those brands that listened to those surveys can be found in compilations of once-great brands that have since died.

Exactly, Mark. We know from A/B testing that the smallest factors can influence customer behavior – a different color “buy” button, a small wording change in a headline. In no case would customers be aware they were influenced by these changes.

Patrick, it’s not so much a timing issue as the assumption that people can accurately describe why they did something. At best, you are capturing their opinions (which likely bear little resemblance to reality).

The beauty of web marketing is that everything can easily be tested, tracked, and measured. Most web designers are creative, rather than analytic. The majority of “user experience” experts are designers working with intuition and “best practices”. The industry has a long way to go before design becomes data driven.