The question Smith first had to answer, he says, was, “Who’s Tom Smith?” An ad from May introduced him as a “conservative Republican” businessman and family man. “In the Senate, I’ll fight to repeal Obama-care, cut spending, and I’ll never vote to raise the debt ceiling,” Smith says over images of him in a boardroom and talking with voters in a coffee shop. The final shot shows Smith standing with his wife, daughters, and numerous grandchildren.

Another features a voiceover inviting viewers to “meet Tom Smith.” “His story is the American dream,” the narrator says. “At 40, he was a union coal miner with big dreams. So he mortgaged his family farm to start his own energy company.” The ad shows a photograph of a younger Smith wearing a hard hat and covered in black soot, crouching in a coal mine. It’s the kind of ad meant to persuade viewers that this conservative businessman is “one of them.”

Real Clear Politics has now returned to rating the race a toss-up, although the poll average still gives Casey a 5.2-point lead.

If Smith can defeat Casey, it will be in large part because of Smith's own personal contribution to the campaign. The $17 million of his own money helped purchase television ads in markets across the state, including in the populous Philadelphia market. Smith was the only candidate on air early in Pennsylvania; neither Casey nor the presidential candidates began purchasing ad time until very recently.