i predict all 3 will win their divisions... the vikes and saints by comfortable margins... the Eagles have a tougher division race but have possibly the best overall talent (outside of minnesota?) in the NFC...

tough to bet any AFC teams since you would be pretty much crazy to bet on any team other than Indy or NE, and they are not getting good odds...

after my game 5 ML-ATS split, i have still not had a losing day since game 2 of the conf finals against Detroit... 20-4 run, with 2 of the 4 losses being Bos ML (+475) in game 3 and Bos (+270) in game 5...

by the way... having lived my entire life on the west coast, and attended a few Lakers games along the way, i know the fickle nature of the L.A. fan... i have many friend who are diehards in fact... they are already conceding this series, and with every slightly unfavorable thing that happens during that game, the crowd will be groaning and submitting...

the Lakers will feel that, and it will be deflating...

i feel bad for what Lakers fans have endured in this finals after such a great year, and i hope they can still feel good about it... the expectations were rock bottom, and to even be here and be a serious threat to this team, which i truly consider to be great, is an amazing accomplishment...

and it is no small consolation, because the Lakers of 08-09 that will benefit from this year's run are going to be truly scary, and most likely will be the team everyone else (including Boston?) is chasing next year...

5) I CANNOT BELIEVE THERE IS A 5!!! but there is, and it is HUGE! Doc Rivers endured a brutal season last year, made more miserable than anything by the death of his father... one year later he is in the finals with a chance to win the championship! now consider #4 (pressure)... for the first time the pressure is lifted... the Big 3 WILL for this 1 game look at this as an opportunity to give something to their coach rather than looking at this as an opportunity to get the monkey off their back...

i believe all of this means you are going to finally see the Celtics A game (amazingly) for a complete game, and that they are going to completely dominate a simply over-matched, though young and talented, Lakers team...

3) the Celts have played some of their worst basketball all year in the 1st quarter of the 2 games in LA and still been right there going into the 4th of both games and getting a split... when you combine the edge from game 4 (see #2) with the fact that they can finally come out loose, every minute of this game knowing that the next made FG gets them 1 FG closer to the prize... there is an ongoing momentum and edge that Boston carries into this game that can almost not be snuffed out no matter what the score is (unless it inexplicably gets to be a 30 Laker lead)... the crowd and the Lakers will be uneasy, and the Celtics will feed on every good thing that happens...

4) KG, Pierce and Allen have been playing with an incredible amount of pressure on their shoulders... so many people talk shit about these guys, and it shocks me... imagine! if this team doesn't WIN THE NBA TITLE, they will all have to deal with this ridiculous media and fan scrutiny saying they can't win the big one...

1) historically teams that go down 3-1 (as we all know) do not come back to win the series... but what most people don't understand is that a significant majority of those series end in 5 games... the reason is that there is a very damaging psychology that comes from dropping that game to put you on the brink... EVEN IF GAME 5 IS AT HOME!

2) ouch! remember the character of the SA/Lakers series after LA made that huge comeback in game 1... there was a sense that the series was already over, and most importantly it established the reality that the Lakers could play subpar basketball for a period and still overcome the deficit... that reality came to fruition in game 5... the psychological significance of that edge cannot be over-stated... a team can be blown out and come back to win the next game, quite often, in fact... but when a team blows a huge lead in a huge game, it is extraordinarily difficult to overcome...

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