INTRODUCTION

This report presents population and
civilian labor force projections for the 21 counties in the state of New Jersey from 2010 to
2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030.The projections were developed by the New
Jersey Department of Labor and
Workforce Development, Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research
as part of the Department's
economic and demographic projections series.Projections include employment by industry; employment by occupation;
population by age-race-sex and Hispanic origin; and civilian labor force by
age-race-sex and Hispanic origin.These
projections share input data and assumptions and are therefore consistent with
each other.These data supersede all
projections previously issued by this Department.

This
report includes the county-level projections based on the Economic-Demographic
projection model.

These projections supersede
demographic projections previously prepared by this Department.The race and Hispanic origin groups included
in the projections are white non-Hispanic, white Hispanic, black (or African
American), “other races”, multiracial (two or more races) and total Hispanic.
The “other races” include Asian, American Indian and Alaska Native, Native
Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander.Hispanic
origin is not a race.Persons of
Hispanic origin may be of any race. The race distribution of the estimated/projected
population is different from that of the census counts because they were
modified to be consistent with the 1997 Standards for Federal Data on Race and Ethnicityand other
data sources.Persons of “Some other
races” were redistributed to specified race categories in the modification.

The numbers in this report
are projections, not forecasts or predictions.A projection is the
measurement of a future condition that would exist if the assumptions and
procedures of the method proved to be empirically valid in the future.Projections may assume continuation of past
conditions, present conditions or trended changes in historical
conditions.They may also assume
entirely new transition rates.Given the
method and the assumptions, a projection is always correct if the operations of
the projection method are carried out without error.The number of possible projections for any
given population is therefore infinite.A forecast, on the other hand, is a projection that is also a
judgmental statement concerning the expected measurement of future conditions;
it is a prediction.All forecasts
are projections, but not all projections are forecasts.Again, numbers in this report are
projections, not forecasts.[1]

Furthermore, the projections
presented in this report are not designated “official” nor “policy” projections
and should not be interpreted as goal or policy oriented.They are not intended to constrain or to
advocate specific levels of growth in the state.All series are presented as baseline,
that is, independent of exogenous public or private interventionist activities
of an unusual, unforeseen, or undocumented nature or magnitude.They are based primarily on identifiable
demographic and economic secular trends which have been implicitly or
explicitly incorporated into the models.The greatest value of the projections is as a reference framework for
planning, research, program evaluation and considerations for alternative
growth scenarios which could be achieved through greater or less resource
development.

Presentation of Results

This report provides summary
tables for all counties including total population (Table 1) and civilian labor
force (Table 8), as well as some details by age (Tables 2 and 9), sex (Tables 3
and 10), age and sex (Tables 4 and 11), race and Hispanic origin (Tables 5 and
12) and race-sex-origin (Tables 6 and 13) for population and labor force based
on the Economic-Demographic Model.The
detailed projections of population and civilian labor force by age, race, sex
and Hispanic origin are given in Tables 7 and 14, respectively.Data by the same racial groups
were tabulated for both population and labor force. However, labor force is
divided into 6 age groups while population consists of 18 age groups.Because of rounding, there may be small
discrepancies between projection distributions and totals.

No hardcopy of this publication is prepared. The county
projections data are only available online at the Office of Labor Planning and
Analysis’ Labor Fast Facts web site (http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/dmograph/lfproj/lfproj_index.html).

Caution on Interpretation

As noted at the outset, projections are not forecasts.
In addition, they are not designated “official”, nor “policy” projections.The employment projections for the state are
available for the year 2020 only.Particular caution is advised in interpreting results for 2015, 2025 and 2030. Although they were consistent with the
interpolated and extrapolated employment projections for the corresponding
years, no actual employment projections were developed for these years. Users
of any long-term projections should also be advised that the plausibility of
historically based assumptions declines with increasing departure from the base
year.Projections are by their nature
biased in favor of continuity.There is
generally little basis for projecting substantial departures from past trends,
so few such departures are projected.Yet, there is little doubt that unforeseen changes will occur.Dramatic changes or disruptions of the
current and/or recent economic-demographic conditions in the future such as
major natural disasters, wars or a major overhaul of the nation’s immigration
policies, etc. may invalidate the projections.

The Division of Labor Market
and Demographic Research hopes the users of these projections will comment on
them.Please direct all comments,
suggestions and data requests to New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research, P
O Box 388, Trenton, New Jersey 08625‑0388; phone: 609-292‑0076;
e-mail: sywu@dol.state.nj.us.

List of Tables

Table 1. Projections of Total
Population by County: New Jersey,
2010 to 2030

Table 2. Projections of CountyPopulation
by Age: New Jersey,
2010 to 2030

Table 3. Projections of CountyPopulation
by Sex: New Jersey,
2010 to 2030

Table
4. Projections of CountyPopulation by Age and Sex: New Jersey, 2010 to 2030