Today, Brazil’s left-leaning Worker’s Party (PT) will nominate former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as its candidate for the

Photo: Reuters

Today, Brazil’s left-leaning Worker’s Party (PT) will nominate former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as its candidate for the October 7 presidential election.

Though polling first around 30%, Lula is unlikely to even make the ballot as his current incarceration for a corruption conviction bars him from office. Although the PT will probably swap in a replacement in September, that candidate will likely struggle to maintain the ex-president’s support.

Without Lula, far-right congressman Jair Bolsonaro is the frontrunner, polling at around 22%. His campaign has centred on law and order, promising a crackdown on crime. However, his tough rhetoric offers little specifics on how he will do this in a country with the world’s 12th highest murder rate.

While Mr Bolsonaro will likely top the first round, his position in the runoff is murkier. He will probably face an opponent from the left, possibly the PT’s nominee or another candidate, like Marina Silva, whose centre-left party will nominate her today. A choice between the populist right and the left would mean an end to current President Michel Temer’s spending cuts and pension reform proposals—though the situation is fluid enough that centre-right candidate Geraldo Alckmin could make the runoff yet.

Wake up smarter with an assessment of the stories that will make headlines in the next 24 hours. Download The Daily Brief.