Will new Fox sports venture offer challenge to ESPN?

The battle for the live TV sports programming advertisers crave is set to heat up as Fox nears the launch of its own general-interest sports network

In 2011, David Hill, chief executive of Fox Sports, (left), announced a multi-year, multi-platform agreement between Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) and Fox Media Group. Fox has been building up its sports programming in advance of converting its Speed Channel into a new general-interest sports network.(Photo: Reed Saxon, AP)

On Tuesday, Fox will finally discuss its hush-hush project that's been the talk of TV sports circles for a while: The launch of what will arguably be the biggest head-to-head challenger to ESPN.

In so-called upfront presentations to advertisers in New York City, Fox will fill in the blanks on when it will convert its Speed Channel, now in more than 80 million of the roughly 100 million U.S. households that get cable or satellite TV, into a broader-interest channel tentatively called Fox Sports 1.

The big question: While there are plenty of niche sports channels, is it too late for anybody to take on ESPN when it comes to on-air sports buffets?

Fox has created a formidable pantry it can tap for TV tonnage to support the new channel. It has added or renewed deals for MLB action, NASCAR, UFC mixed martial arts, World Cup soccer, college football and basketball -- including a deal for TV basketball rights to the seven Catholic colleges leaving the Big East that's expected to become official Tuesday.

Still up in the air: To juggle and cross-promote that programming, Fox is likely to create a second spin-off channel -- a Fox Sports 2 -- out of its Fuel channel, which is in at least 30 million TV households. What's still unclear: Whether the second channel will launch with FS1 or come later.

Fox's challenge to ESPN's channels isn't exactly David vs. Goliath, say financial analysts, but it will be lopsided in the beginning. Nomura Equity Research analyst Michael Nathanson argues that "ESPN is well protected for many years (given) its sports rights (for event coverage) are locked up into the next decade."

Credit Suisse analyst Michael Senno estimates that the new Fox Sports channel, expected to debut by late summer, will try to get cable operators to pay monthly fees of $1.25 per subscriber -- a big jump from the current 26 cents it charges for Speed.

But that wouldn't be anywhere close to the revenue produced by programming on ESPN which, says research firm SNL Kagan, charges cable operators monthly subscriber fees -- $5.13 -- that are by far the highest in TV. (That's well above popular channels such as CNN (57 cents) and MTV (39 cents).

Chase Carey, chief operating officer for Fox parent News Corp., in one of Fox's few public comments on the channel launch, said at an investment conference last year that "people are going to say we're going after ESPN. ESPN is a different game."

It certainly is, but Fox may counter with creativity: Retired talk show host Regis Philbin recently hinted on CNBC that he might have a new role on FS1.

Still, David Banks, of RBC Capital Markets, notes Fox has "succeeded as an insurgent in two other (TV) categories" -- launching the Fox broadcast network in the 1980s and the Fox News Channel in the 1990s. No matter whether Fox's general-interest channel ever approaches ESPN's reach, Fox will be better positioned to get more money from advertisers -- who last year spent $13.3 billion on TV sports. For advertisers, it's programming they know most viewers watch live instead of via their recorders -- which allow them to skip through the commercials.

Sunday, Fox spokesman Dan Bell said the network had no comment.

For viewers, the new Fox venture might finally provide a whole new experience: Watching ESPN get a run -- or at least a jog -- for its money.

On tap: ESPN spokesman Mike Soltys Sunday says ESPN still hasn't finalized its long-awaited deal with retiring Baltimore Raven linebacker Ray Lewis, who is expected to work Monday Night Football pregame shows, many Sunday NFL pregame shows and occasional weekday SportsCenter shows. No matter how he does on-air -- and players coming straight from the field can be surprisingly good or bad -- the idea that he's a somewhat polarizing figure as well as clearly famous makes him catnip to TV networks. One thing that separates Lewis from some ex-players who get TV gigs: After his long NFL career and product endorsements, he probably won't be motivated by the comparatively meager pay of TV work. ... ESPN's College GameDay Saturday will air its first-ever shows from two sites on the same day. It starts at Georgetown (which hosts Syracuse) in Washington, D.C. (10 p.m. ET on ESPNU/11:00 p.m. ET on ESPN) and then heads to North Carolina (which hosts Duke) for its prime-time version (9:00 p.m. ET). Hey, it's publicity and hype on two campuses.

Spice rack: Give NBC NHL analyst Mike "Doc" Emrick style points for originality after Detroit's Tomas Tatar scored in the Red Wings 2-1 loss to Chicago Sunday -- "a steak for Tatar!" A raw call. ... TNT's Shaquille O'Neal on the perennial TV ratings draw that as of today would not make the post-season -- the Los Angeles Lakers. O'Neal asks a good question: "When was the last time you saw a team with four potential Hall of Famers say, 'We just want to make the playoffs.' '' ... ESPN/ABC studio analyst Bill Simmons, at 43, is already sounding like he's ready to growl at the neighbor kids for knocking balls in his yard. Sunday, Simmons lamented that "players today are too buddy, buddy. ... The bad blood (between teams) that I grew up with seems like it's gone." And what about that noise that kids today listen to and call music!

Say what? After first raising the idea Friday, ESPN/ABC's Magic Johnson Sunday again beat the drum for LeBron James to enter the NBA's dunk contest -- "what I'd like him to do is dominate NBA All-Star Weekend like Michael Jordan did." Johnson is offering $1 million in prize money for the contest winner, and Sunday on ABC got analyst Michael Wilbon to kick in $1,000 to the total. Granted, the NBA regular-season is pretty meaningless in the big picture. But is it so boring that NBA talking heads have to get excited about something that would happen 11 months from now. ... It didn't take Dennis Rodman long to be won over after his recent visit to North Korea. Turns out dictator Kim Jong Un is "a great guy" who "don't want war," Rodman said on ABC's This Week news show Sunday. He later declined an ESPN interview that was supposed to follow. What a pity.