Title

Authors

Abstract

Why does the deadlock that has defined China-Taiwan relations for 65 years persist despite periods of extreme tension and change? I use the Model of Punctuated Equilibrium from evolutionary biology as a framework to answer this question. The PE Model is comprised of two parts, positive and negative feedback. A positive feedback mechanism, or punctuation, is a self-reinforcing process in which rapid change occurs as a result of attention-shift and mimicking. A negative feedback cycle, or equilibrium, is a self-correcting mechanism, which equalizes any outside force to create a stable output. According to this model, if China and Taiwan increase their disruptive actions, then the United States will increase its influence to promote stability, resulting in a lower level of conflict. To test my hypothesis, I implement a theory-guided case study. My first case encompasses the positive feedback cycle formed by the First and Second Taiwan Strait Crises. The second case discusses the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis and the 1999 Taiwan Strait Confrontation. The goal of this study is to explore the rise of conflict in the Taiwan Strait and the resultant level of negative feedback that stabilizes the situation until the political deadlock is reinstated.