It depends on whether someone moves house over the summer usually. The September ones are where people have put their children in private school and not bothered telling the council so the place is held open until the child doesn't turn up in September. Or if someone decides to homeschool. These are the only scenarios I can think of off the top of my head.

I think it would be more likely the first week back now when (hopefully for you) someone has moved away or doesn't turn up. First place is good though - good chance of it happening! Although don't forget if someone of higher priority turns up on the list you could come down from first place

Thank you all i have hopes. Try and not to think about the upset it will cause my dc when he is back at his beloved school in sept and a week or 2 later i have to tell him he will not go there anymore. It would be easier if i knew apart from stats that these schools are as lovely as his current one but as there is quite a bit of a waiting list for them when i called up to arrange a visit they talked me out of going to see until we actually have been offered a place. It's last week next week so might call again and explain that we no1 on the list so it's likely we will get a place soon (i hope)