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Arvest Consumer Sentiment Index Summary for March 2015May 12, 2015

The Index

The Arvest Consumer Sentiment Index is based on methodology developed by the University of Michigan for its national-level Index of Consumer Sentiment. It is based on five questions that evaluate consumer perceptions about their current and future finances, current and future business conditions, plans to purchase major household items, current level of consumer debt, current and planned savings, and demographic information. Researchers collected these perceptions using telephone surveys conducted in March 2015.

Index

National

Regional

Arkansas

Missouri

Oklahoma

June 2014

82.5

71.4

67.4

68.6

76.4

October 2014

86.9

72.6

68.1

77.4

72.6

March 2015

85.3

83.2

79.1

85.2

84.8

Arkansas

Arkansas consumer sentiment jumped dramatically from October 2014 to March 2015. Like consumers nationwide, Arkansas residents enjoyed declining gasoline prices at the pump, increasing employment and slowly rising incomes in the past year. The improved readings on components of consumer sentiment in Arkansas were consistent with the positive economic data that have been reported. As unemployment rates were improving, the labor force was growing again and personal income growth was noticeable at the end of 2014.

Missouri

Missouri consumer sentiment was the highest of the region at 85.2, just short of the national level of 85.3. In the past, Missouri consumers showed an overabundance of caution towards the economy but are now moving towards a more optimistic opinion than the rest of the region. Employment in the Missouri economy has finally surpassed its previous peak and the past several months Missouri has seen very strong job growth. Wage growth continues to be subpar and is an area of concern, but it seems that, for now, the job growth and lower oil prices are boosting consumers' spirits in Missouri.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma consumer sentiment improved more than the other states in March, even as the state’s primary industry adjusted to low and volatile crude oil prices. Oklahoma experienced the largest increase in consumer sentiment in March, with the sentiment index improving to 84.8 from the 72.6 October 2014 reading. Time will tell if consumer confidence and broad economic health in the state can offset forthcoming weakness in the state’s oil and gas industry. Employment in non-farm and private sectors managed to hold early gains in 2015 but the oil and gas sector lost 2,500 jobs so far this year.

Index by Income

All Families

Families Under $75,000

Families Over $75,000

Regional

83.2

79.1

93.9

Arkansas

79.1

71.4

86.8

Missouri

85.2

76.9

98.3

Oklahoma

84.8

79.7

86.4

Index by Age Subgroup

Age 18-24

Age 25-44

Age 45-64

Age 65+

Regional

95.7

86.7

80.4

74.0

Arkansas

113.0

91.4

79.8

65.0

Missouri

87.2

91.6

82.7

77.2

Oklahoma

106.8

87.1

78.7

81.6

Index by Educational Attainment

High School or Less

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate Degree

Regional

75.3

84.8

91.2

Arkansas

72.1

80.5

87.9

Missouri

67.1

89.7

95.4

Oklahoma

80.9

78.0

84.0

Index by Presence of Children in the Home

Children

No Children

Regional

79.5

84.4

Arkansas

79.2

92.9

Missouri

82.1

83.3

Oklahoma

83.5

80.5

Index by Employment Status

Employed

Unemployed

Not In Labor Force

Regional

85.3

81.3

79.3

Arkansas

81.3

90.8

70.7

Missouri

86.3

78.5

79.1

Oklahoma

84.5

85.9

76.8

Index by Homeownership Status

Own Home

Rent

Regional

81.8

86.1

Arkansas

76.3

78.9

Missouri

83.0

82.5

Oklahoma

76.9

97.6

Data released as part of the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey, summary and news releases is free for broadcast, publication or use in presentations. Please cite “Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey” as the source each time information is referenced.

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