StatsCan wrong on population count

Huntsville Forester

MUSKOKA - Wrong information collected by Statistics Canada means Muskoka will not have up-to-date population data until the next census in 2016.
The District of Muskoka requested a review of the 2011 census data published in February 2012 when they noticed there was an increase of only 500 residents in Muskoka over the last five years and a decrease of 15 private dwellings.
Statistics Canada reported the results of their review in a letter dated Dec. 3, 2012 which showed the population counts for Gravenhurst, Georgian Bay, Lake of Bays and Muskoka Lakes were off between 200 to 400 people.
Samantha Hastings, director of policy and programs for the District of Muskoka, told the planning and economic development committee for the District of Muskoka at a meeting on Thursday, Jan. 24 that they won’t have statistics on the age cohort for Muskoka, household income, education and employment statistics for the next five years.
“The issue is because they missed so many households when they did the count, they couldn’t have those households participate by completing the census questionnaires, so that information is not available,” she said.
That information is used by the district and municipalities to plan programs and initiatives as well as project growth.
“We’re going to have to figure out a different way to get some of that data,” Hastings said.
The review showed Statistics Canada had also originally under-counted the number of dwellings in Georgian Bay by 819 resulting in a total of 5,173 dwellings in the revised census. Gravenhurst had 445 more dwellings than the 2011 census showed resulting in a total of 8,202 in the revised census, Lake of Bays had 379 more at 4,850 and Muskoka Lakes had 362 more at 9,723.
The 2011 census information for both Huntsville and Bracebridge was accurate and remains unchanged; however, Bracebridge and Gravenhurst were over-counted in the 2006 census by about 500 dwellings each because of geographic boundary interpretations.
In a letter addressed to district chair John Klinck, Gary Dillon, the director for the central region of Statistics Canada, gave three potential reasons for the incorrect data: missed dwellings and unoccupied dwellings that are not properly coded, a better response rate to the census than the national and provincial average, and the difference between the number of people who moved to Muskoka and those who moved out.
He said the migration data was not included in the census and would be known this year through the National Household Survey.
“Statistics Canada recognizes that despite our best efforts during census collection, there always remain a number of households that do not account for everyone in the household or households that are missed,” the letter said.
Following each census, Statistics Canada conducts coverage studies to determine how many houses were missed or counted more than once, he said.
In the 2006 post-census study, results showed the under-coverage rate in Ontario was 3.69 per cent.
The outcome of the coverage studies and the revised census counts will be used to determine the official population estimates in the fall of 2013, which will then be used to determine the fiscal transfer payments to the provinces.
A notification showing the 2011 revised population and dwelling counts for Gravenhurst, Lake of Bays, Georgian Bay and Muskoka Lakes will be published on Statistics Canada’s website at statcan.gc.ca.