Expected Value of Postflop-Shoves

Introduction

Players often discuss the EV of preflop shoves. However, we may also apply the EV equation to postflop decisions. Assuming there are N possible outcomes, EV is given by:

Suppose we have a heads-up pot with two outcomes – our opponent folds, or he calls. To determine the probability of each outcome, we must dissect his range to determine how many hand combinations it currently contains, and how many of these hands we will fold out with a shove. The reward of him folding is the current pot size, and the “reward” of him calling is itself an expected value calculation that will depend on our equity against his calling range.

Let’s now get specific, and look at such a calculation in a recently played hand. We will then analyze the function relating expected value to fold equity.

That's not the entire article...

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