Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Prince Albert is a beast. I like the idea of he and Ryan Howard duking it out for the NL MVP for years to come, although I still maintain I'd give it to Albert every time unless Howard steps up his pitch recognition. It still blows my mind every year Pujols winds up with so few K's.

Oh, and Dan... Is there any way we could see a ZiPS projection on Wainwright as a starter? I don't know the status on Izzy right now and my assumption is Wainwright's being converted to a starting role this season. Anyone with knowledge of the situation, feel free to fill me in.

Huh, those aren't bad projections from Rodriguez or Duncan at all--that would still probably make Duncan a pretty bad player, given that he plays the outfield like he's trying to solve a Rubik's Cube while being strafed by World War I biplanes, but it's still nice to have cheap outfield options who project to an .800+ OPS. Which means they'll probably give So Taguchi 500 ABs.

Dan, regarding Duncan's projection, have you noticed any difference in the development pattern for rookie LHB versus rookie RHB? I'd guess some LHB get a bit of a bounce from facing LHP less in the majors than they did in the minors.

That Encarnacion projection makes no sense. It's certainly possible -- he's had seasons like that in 2001 and 2004, though the latter was in Dodgers and the Marlins stadia. But his career SLG is 441, he's been a smidgen above that the last two seasons, and only once (2000) has he had an ISO that low. 265/315/435 I could believe (and it's not a huge improvement over what you've got), but just can't imagine how he could be projected to slug as low as 405 with an ISO of 140.

Even without a designated 5th starter, that staff looks pretty darn good. Can't wait to see a sim on this year's ZiPS. Kinda surprised Hawksworth projects better than Narveson. Thompson is underrated by the Cardinal community as a whole.

Edmonds' slip last year was almost completely against left-handed pitching -- he actually hit righties better in 06 than in 05. I'm curious to see whether last year was an anamoly, or the first (or second) step down a steep decline.

Tigers signed outfielder Timo Perez to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.

Timo and Neifi on the same team? The really amazing thing is that neither would be the worst hitter on the roster, what with Ramon Santiago already locked into a spot. Timo, though, shouldn't have any chance of winning a job out of spring training.
Source: Detroit News

You know, I just checked Duncan's card on Baseball Prospectus, and saw that they have him listed at two FRAA in the outfield. Now, I've learned not to trust my eyes too much when it comes to defense, but I like to think that I can still judge the extremes--and, my God, that has to completely destroy whatever little credibility FRAA still has as a stat.

Speaking of "take a shot on the guy" guys, mighty Transaction Oracle, could we see a projection somewhere for Chris Gissell? I believe he pitched for Seibu in 2006, which I'd guess means you have a ready-made translator for him. Not that he's special or anything, but it wouldn't surprise me if he looked statistically as good as a couple of pitchers who next year will make 10 or 20 times what Gissell makes in 2007.

A lot of it comes down to Tony. If he reconizes that the kids can do the job and lets them play over people like So, Juan, whatever re-tread comes in to pitch in the #5 slot, then they have a good chance.

If Juan E and So combine for 700 AB next year, its not going to be pretty. If JRod starts against RHP, we have a chance.

If Thompson / Naverson fight it out for the #5 slot it may go well. If we dump 10mil into a replacement level pitcher for that slot, not so much.

Are the Cardinals a better bet to win the 2007 World Series than they were to win the 2006 World Series after having made the playoffs, barely? Inquiring St Louis minds want to know.

Not even close. Because of the variance (or luck or whatever you want to call it) involved in short series-the devil rays take 4 out of 7 (in a row) vs. the red sox and/or yanks just about every year-any team that makes the playoffs has a decent chance of winning it.

I doubt the Cardinals were any bigger than 60/40 dogs in any of the series they played.

Seems like you may have a problem with the toy (or Wainwright's relief projection). A pitcher should be projected to have an ERA about .80 to 1.0 higher as a starter than as a reliever. If he's really a 3.85 starter, he should be better than a 3.45 reliever.

Those other results sound very reasonable. But with 75 IP in relief to work with, we can't possibly know if Wainwright's start/relief gap is more narrow than usual. I guess the question is whether we're saying 1) he's a 3.85 starter (based on minor-lg data), and we're going to project him at 3.45 in relief (sounds reasonable), or 2) we think he's a 3.45 reliever, who will only gain .40 if moved to the rotation (not reasonable). I'm not sure which ZIPS is really telling us.

like he's trying to solve a Rubik's Cube while being strafed by World War I biplanes

I don't think that line worked on me the way it worked for most readers here - but that's because I personally know someone who can solve a Rubik's Cube one-handed while juggling two others with his other hand. Let him use two hands and he can relibably and repeatedly solve a 3 X 3 X 3 cube in under 15 seconds.

I wrote a basic one a few years ago but I can't seem to find it now. I really need to write up a new description - I tend to make the false assumption that everyone reading ZiPS has been involved in every discussion about ZiPS over the last 5 years, which is a pretty stupid assumption.