Democrats could win a majority in the U.S. House this November, but thanks to gerrymandering, doing so would require a near unprecedented win in the national vote. @lauraroyden and I explain in today's NYT: nytimes.com/2018/03/25/opi…#fairmaps 1/

We find that to be favored to win back a majority, Democrats would need to win the national vote by nearly 11 points (i.e., 55.5% to 45.5%). That would be a larger margin than either the 2006 D wave or the 2010 R wave. #fairmaps 3/

Which is not to say, it couldn't happen. It absolutely could. Lots of signs that 2018 is an unusually pro-D year. But a win by that large a margin could net Ds only a thin majority. #fairmaps 4/

And 2018 aside, if 2020 proves to be a more normal year - even a still pretty strong D year but one closer to the election range you expect, gerrymanders could come back to bite with a vengeance. #fairmaps 5/

This stands in contrast to Rs lucky break in the 2010 wave. Not only did Rs win a huge number of seats (63 in all), redistricting took place the next year, enabling them to lock in those gains in states like NC, PA, and elsewhere. Ds may not have that luck. #fairmaps 6/

But while undoubtedly many will focus on the 2018 election angle, there are several bigger stories in our report. Take for example, the strong evidence of how much fairer the map drawn by California's independent redistricting commission is. #fairmaps 7/

This chart from the report compares California infamous bipartisan incumbent protection gerrymander from the 2000s (light blue) with the commission map (dark blue). Under the gerrymandered map, each party safely gets its seats. #fairmaps 8/

By contrast, under CA's commission drawn map, lots of seats are in play at every level. As a party (D or R) wins more votes, it wins more seats. Basically what most people think democracy should more or less look like. #fairmaps 9/

New York's court-drawn map also is highly responsive to electoral shifts. As a party wins more votes, it wins more seats. #fairmaps 10/

The responsiveness of New York's court drawn map is a powerful rejoinder to the argument that maps favor Rs because all the Ds live in cities. NY has large & dense concentrations of Ds in NYC, but map is still highly responsive. #fairmaps 11/

That's in stark contrast to the New York senate map, which was the product of a backroom gerrymander deal - but more on that later. Let's stick with Congress for now. #fairmaps 12/

Another big story out of the report is how adverse treatment of minorities is often a key to creating unresponsive maps (i.e. ones where winning more votes doesn't net a party more seats). Consider Virginia. #fairmaps 13/

The Virginia congressional map drawn by Republicans is shown in the chart in light blue. The map drawn by a court-appointed special master is in dark blue. #fairmaps 14/

Under the GOP map, African-American voters were crammed (packed in redistricting lingo) into a district stretching from the Tidewater region to Richmond. Federal courts struck that down as a racial gerrymander & ordered map redrawn. #fairmaps 15/

When that happened, not only did African-Americans get treated more fairly, but lo and behold the map became more responsive, enabling each party to win more seats as its statewide performance improved. #fairmaps 16/

Texas is another example of this. The GOP drawn map failed to create new minority districts and that failure was key to producing an unresponsive map. The court-ordered tweaks partially fixed this, but Texas' map is still pretty unresponsive. #fairmaps 17/

By contrast, a map proposed by Latino groups would have increased Latino representation more significantly (Latinos after all made up 2/3 of Texas' population gain last decade), but also produced a much more electorally responsive map. #fairmaps 18/

A few more thoughts on the North Carolina partisan gerrymandering cases - or more specifically the facts. #fairmaps#ncpol 2/

Although some are skeptical about what the Supreme Court will do in the partisan gerrymandering cases it took today (and not without justification, especially given Justice Kennedy’s retirement), it’s important to remember how unusual the facts of NC are. #fairmaps#ncpol 3/

2018 was a busy and, in many ways, head spinning year on the redistricting front - with action in both state and federal court and at the ballot box. A look back. #fairmaps 1/

Things kicked off on January 5, when the special master in the racial gerrymandering challenge to North Carolina's legislative maps issued his recommendations on how the maps should be redrawn. brennancenter.org/sites/default/…#fairmaps 2/

Then, on Jan 9, while the court in the NC racial gerrymandering case was weighing recommendations for fixes to the legislative maps, a different federal court issued a ruling striking down NC's congressional map as a partisan gerrymander. brennancenter.org/sites/default/…#fairmaps 3/

Related threads

Civics 101 for the brain dead, overly educated, under informed #Democrats, @dnc, and #Liberals of this Constitutional Republic of the United States of America.

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Our Founding Fathers were BRILLIANT when they set up our REPUBLIC, yes its a republic, not a democracy. If not for the electoral college, California and NY etc, would decide the election outcomes.

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The electoral college is enshrined in our Constitution, which means changing requires a constitutional amendment. That's a 2/3 vote in both the House & the Senate & the ratification of 3/4 (38) of the 50 states.

🐬It's getting closer and closer to the midterm elections and #Democrats need to #FlipTheSenate. If you can contribute—great—if not, there are other ways to help: by following their account, tweeting about them, spreading the word, volunteering, getting others to contribute, etc.

🐦Let's start with Heidi Heitkamp @SenatorHeitkamp, running for U.S. Senate in #NorthDakota. Please follow, tweet, contribute, volunteer, anything you can do, she is in a tight race.

💥And remember: Jeff Flake is not a hero for #Democrats. He voted to recommend Kavanaugh to the full Senate—without re-opening Kavanaugh's background investigation—so there's little doubt how he's going to vote.

This November, millions of Americans’ access to health care is on the line. Each day from #100DaysOut to midterm elections, we’ll share the story of a Little Lobbyist who needs YOU to be a #HealthCareVoter for them. THREAD 0/100

2. In the midst of the #cervicalcheckscandal other unsavoury details about the Govt. have emerged. These facts help to explain what exactly Tony O'Brien (Director General of the HSE) was doing as a non-executive Director of the Board of Evofem Devices & why Min. Harris approved.

3.This arrangement occurred in the middle of a flu season epidemic in Jan 2018. A peak number of people of 714 were left on trolleys in one day. Mr Varadker is quoted as having supported this unusual decision.