Monday, February 28, 2005

[contagio democratico] Se le tre svolte continuano a svoltare...

The other night on ABC's "Nightline," the host, Ted Koppel, posed anintriguing question to Malcolm Gladwell, the social scientist who wrotethe path-breaking book "The Tipping Point," which is about how changesin behavior or perception can reach a critical mass and then suddenlycreate a whole new reality. Mr. Koppel asked: Can you know you are inthe middle of a tipping point, or is it only something you can see inretrospect?

Mr. Gladwell responded that "the most important thing in trying toanalyze whether something is at the verge of a tipping point, is whetherit - an event - causes people to reframe an issue. ...A dumb example isthe Atkins's diet, which reframes dieting from thinking about it interms of avoiding calories and fat to thinking about it as avoidingcarbohydrates, which really changes the way people perceive dieting."

Mr. Koppel was raising the question because he wanted to explore whetherthe Iraqi elections marked a tipping point in history. I was on the sameshow, and in mulling over this question more I think that what's sointeresting about the Middle East today is that we're actuallywitnessing three tipping points at once.

Thanks to eight million Iraqis defying "you vote, you die" terroristthreats, Iraq has been reframed from a story about Iraqi "insurgents"trying to liberate their country from American occupiers and their Iraqi"stooges" to a story of the overwhelming Iraqi majority trying to builda democracy, with U.S. help, against the wishes of IraqiBaathist-fascists and jihadists.

In Lebanon, the murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, whichSyria is widely suspected of having had a hand in, has reframed thatdrama. A month ago, Lebanon was the story of a tiny Christian minoritytrying to resist the Syrian occupation, which had the tacit support ofthe pro-Syrian Lebanese government and a cadre of Lebanese politicianswho had sold their souls to Damascus. After the Hariri murder, Lebanesejust snapped. Lebanon became the story of a broad majority of LebaneseChristians, Muslims and Druse no longer willing to remain silent, butinstead telling the Syrians, and their Lebanese puppet president, to "gohome." Lebanon went from a country where few dared whisper "When willSyria leave?" to a country where nearly everyone was shouting it, andSyria was having to answer.

The Israel-Palestine drama has gone from how Ariel Sharon will use anymeans possible to sustain Israel's hold on Gaza, which he once said wasindispensable for the security of the Jewish state, to being about howMr. Sharon will use any means possible to evacuate Gaza - with its hugePalestinian population - which he now says is necessary for savingIsrael as a Jewish state. The issue for the Palestinians is no longerabout how they resist the Israeli occupation in Gaza, but whether theybuild a decent mini-state there - a Dubai on the Mediterranean. Becauseif they do, it will fundamentally reshape the Israeli debate aboutwhether the Palestinians can be handed most of the West Bank.

While all three of these situations would constitute tipping points byMr. Gladwell's definition, I would feel a lot better about all three ifI thought that they were irreversible - and couldn't tip back the wrongway.

For Iraq to be tipped in the right direction, it was necessary to havethe election we did, but that was not sufficient. The sufficient thingis that a stable, decent Iraqi government emerge that can also quell theSunni insurgency. That will depend in part on America's willingness tostay the course in Iraq. It will depend in part on the Shiite majority'swillingness to share power with the Sunnis - particularly one of thecrucial cabinet portfolios of defense, intelligence or interior - andnot go on a de-Baathification rampage. And it will depend in part on theSunni Arab leaders finally supporting the Iraqi majority.

For Lebanon to liberate itself from Syria, the Lebanese oppositiongroups will have to find a way to translate their aspirations into awithdrawal deal with Damascus. The Syrians will not be pushed out. Andfor Israelis and Palestinians to really tip toward peace, the moderateson both sides are really going to have to help each other succeed.

Indeed, in the Middle East playground - as Friday's suicide bomb inIsrael reminds us - tipping points are sometimes more liketeeter-totters: one moment you're riding high and the next minute you'reslammed to the ground. Nevertheless, what's happened in the last fourweeks is not just important, it's remarkable. And if we can keep allthree tipping points tipped, it will be incredible.