The future of the fence around the European labour market

Abstract

In international forums the EU calls for freedom of movement for goods, services and capital. Freedom of movement of labour - labour migration in other words - is excluded from this claim, certainly in relation to medium- and low-skilled labour. This paper addresses two questions. Firstly, what are the effects of EU's restrictive labour migration policy on welfare within and outside the EU? Both welfare effects are found to be considerable. Secondly, is this policy sustainable over the longer term, say towards 2030? The paper evaluates foreseeable pressures on the fence around the EU labour market, coming from within and from outside the EU. The paper sketches policy options for dealing with the dilemmas that may arise from these pressures.

Cornelius, W. (2001). Death at the border: the efficacy and ‘unintended’ consequences of U.S. immigration control policy 1993–2000. Working Paper 27. San Diego: University of California Center for Comparative Immigration Studies.

CPB/SCP (2005). Destination Europe – immigration and integration in the European Union. European Outlook No. 3. The Hague: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis/Netherlands Institute for Social Research.

CPB/SCP (2007). Market place Europe - Fifty years of public opinion and market integration in the European Union. European Outlook No. 5. The Hague: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis/ Netherlands Institute for Social Research.

Longi, S., P. Nijkamp and J. Poot (2006). The impact of migration on the employment of natives in regional labour markets: a meta-analysis, IZA Discussion Paper 2044, Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor.

Maddison, A. (2001). The world economy: a millennial perspective. Paris: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.