‘Long-term support for children and young people at risk of poor outcomes, such as mental health problems, limited academic attainment or involvement in crime, is crucial.’
Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Just imagine: “Mr Speaker, it is clear that the developmental issues affecting millions of UK children are so severe, and of such enormous long-term cost to our country, that only a concerted national programme of early intervention will suffice. I propose to make that investment the centrepiece of this budget in the full knowledge that the benefits will be reaped by future governments, not my own.”

No, we did not hear that from Philip Hammond in his budget statement this week. Nor are we likely to hear it from any chancellor, of any political stripe, any time soon. In the UK’s political system, the short term is all. Yet it is increasingly evident that focused, long-term support for children and young people at risk of poor outcomes, such as mental health problems, limited academic attainment or involvement in crime, must be key to tackling what former children’s commissioner for England Sir Al Aynsley-Green describes in a new book as Britain’s “childhood crisis”.

It’s an issue addressed in a report published today by the Early Intervention Foundation (EIF), a charity set up in 2013 to champion early intervention in children’s lives, and a member of the government’s What Works Network, which disseminates research evidence to improve decision-making in public services. After five years trying to make its case, the foundation’s frustration is starting to show. There is growing evidence showing the value of targeted support for children’s physical, cognitive, behavioural or social and emotional development – as well as to tackle substance misuse, risky sexual behaviour or the effects of maltreatment. The EIF has an online database of more than 80 programmes, rated by strength of evidence and cost.

‘We’ll be waiting a while for Philip Hammond or any chancellor to throw their weight – and our money – behind a comprehensive childhood intervention strategy.’ Photograph: Chris J Ratcliffe/AFP/Getty Images

One initiative, called Paths, which boosts self-control, emotional awareness and inter-personal problem-solving skills is being used in some primary schools across south London after being found to have had a very positive effect on children’s wellbeing, behaviour and attainment in schools in the US and Switzerland for a cost of less than £100 per child. Another, called Empowering Parents, Empowering Communities, is now being used in Blackpool following a highly positive evaluation of a pilot in Southwark, south London, among 116 families with children who have behavioural difficulties. Again, the unit cost was less than £100.

The EIF admits that a lot of initiatives labelled “early intervention” have not been properly tested or evaluated .

Even effective schemes are unlikely to reduce children’s social care costs in the short term, while calculating long-term cost-benefit is very tricky: how do you weigh £3,000 spent on a Paths course for a primary school class in 2018 against the potential saving realised by one child perhaps growing up not to go to prison in 2038?

Then there is the awkward truth that the government’s “troubled families” programme has given early intervention something of a bad name. Launched in 2012 at an estimated cost of more than £1bn, and aiming to turn around the lives of almost 120,000 families, the programme has so far failed to deliver conclusive proof of success and fallen prey to gaming by some councils allowed to mark their own homework.

This helps explain the reluctance of governments to get behind early intervention on a national basis.

The EIF reckons it detects a warming of interest among Treasury officials aware that some existing, one-off spending on unproven early-intervention schemes could be better directed. It wants a long-term investment fund to back interventions in five test-bed localities; an “acceleration” fund to spread proven schemes; an independent, expert panel to advise on policy and research; and a cross-government taskforce to coordinate work across the six Whitehall departments with a stake in children’s wellbeing.

But we’ll be waiting a while for a chancellor to throw weight – and our money – behind such a comprehensive strategy. Meanwhile, as the EIF report hints, the better bet might be emerging local and regional planning by combined authorities like Greater Manchester. If we are truly coming towards the end of austerity, they seem more likely to be able to use replenished resources to take the long view.