More reasons why the Governator will win
By Bruce Walker
web posted September 19, 2005
The rumors of the political death of Arnold Schwarzenegger
continue to be exaggerated. My recent articles have noted
several reasons why he is likely to be re-elected in 2006. There
are more and more reasons to be hopeful about his reelection.
Proposition 75, which would dramatically reduce the union
political money flowing into the coffers of Democrats in state
elections, is almost certain to pass, making it tougher for any
Democrat to win state elections. All polls show that measure
passing easily.
Arnold also has no organized opposition within the Republican
Party, unlike Bill Simon when he ran with a divided Republican
Party against Gray Davis in 2002, and the large percentage of
conservative voters who express dissatisfaction with the
Governor today will end up voting for him on Election Day.
Democrats, by contrast, are completely divided. The Recall
Election itself was a perfect example of that. Cruz Bustamante
sort of opposed recall, but then winked and said that if a
Californian was going to support recall, then that voter should
vote for him.
Polls, read by Leftists, lie. Democrats are also more unpopular
than Republicans in California, though both are unpopular. The
Democrat California Legislature rates lower in public opinion
polls than the Republican California Governor. Today, polls
show nothing running against something (Arnold), and when
everything is unpopular, nothing wins, but how quickly people
forget that Gray Davis was more unpopular than Arnold
Schwarzenegger, and yet Davis won reelection against Bill
Simon very easily.
Arnold is also a bigger than life character. He is a solid and
successful professional actor who rose up from genuinely humble
origins to genuine greatness. When he won the recall election, the
waters were muddled, and that great skill in communicating
directly with the people was by circumstances inhibited. Anyone
who heard him speaks a year ago at the Republican Convention
and who still believes that Governor Schwarzenegger is not an
awesome orator and powerful campaigner is willfully ignorant.
And then there is another dimension to the Governor, one that
becomes increasingly apparent as he governs. Arnold is very
shrewd. He has political savvy, but more importantly, he knows
how to hide that savvy, much like another Republican chief
executive.
As one example, the multiple initiative reforms which he has
supported all have to do with reforming education or ending
gerrymandering. These all may lose, but that will not damage the
Governor at all: he is taking a clear position of change on issues
that most Californians feel need to be changed, and, moreover,
he is willing to be courageous in championing real change. While
Democrats will doubtless pile on after those particular initiatives
fail in November, the hangover for Democrats will be dreadful.
Having opposed everything and supported nothing, they will be
perceived as simply Sacramento polls.
His veto of same sex marriages on the grounds that the people of
California cannot be trumped by the California Legislature both
appeals to those who resent the insider game of Sacramento
politics, but also it will quietly win over more enthusiastic support
from social conservatives who, based upon the initiative squarely
on this issue, constitute a huge though silent majority of
Californians.
And now he has vetoed a bill by the Legislature which would
have allowed illegal immigrants to get driver's licenses.
Conventional political wisdom is that this will offend Hispanic
voters, but Governor Richardson, himself and Hispanic in New
Mexico, obviously does not think so.
What Leftists in Hollywood and Manhattan do not grasp is that
illegal immigrants take jobs away from legal immigrants and from
Hispanic-Americans working their way up the economic ladder.
Illegal immigration is scandalous and everyone knows it. What
will the Democrat nominee say in 2006 about the veto of a bill
which would allow illegal immigrants to get California driver's
licenses? Will Westly or Angelides actually support illegal
immigrants getting driver's licenses? No.
The impulse to hurt political competitors, the need to obstruct
reform, and the itch to fight like savages to preserve "the system"
plagues Democrats in California as much as it plagues
Democrats nationally. Much of the problem is simply bigness.
The best hope for Democrats to regain power is in men like Bill
Richardson, who has cut taxes, who has taken, at least
symbolically, a stand against illegal immigration, and who is
respectful and calm when he talks about political opponents. The
worst chance for Democrats to regain power are shrill, insulated,
"entitled" elites who are comic punching bags for wiser, better
men like Schwarzenegger.
Bruce Walker is a senior writer with Enter Stage Right. He is
also a frequent contributor to The Pragmatist and The Common
Conservative.
Enter Stage Right -- http://www.enterstageright.com