Confirm Deletion?

Initial strong cold front dies in Florida. Chilly Canadian high pressure moves in behind it. Reinforcing cold front this weekend, with a wave in the S.Cornbelt. Even stronger and chillier Canadian High behind it. Then another reinforcing cold front next Tuesday with mostly dry weather as the atmosphere will be dried out.

Confirm Deletion?

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Wednesday. More zonal, west to east flow, less meridional/extreme. Mild to warm temperatures. Much drier pattern than recent days.

However, several other models disagree with this. Instead, they amplify the pattern into a ridge west/trough east one and of a dry, cool northwest flow pattern in the Midwest/East. It would still be decidedly dry though. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.