I haven't been reading Jeff's posts for weeks. I'm pretty sure Galu will not regroup. There're already so many cracks in between them. Much as I'd hate to, I agree that Russell's really the one working to give Foa Foa hope. Or perhaps it's because he's just so aggressive. But it won't be surprising if Galu continues to self-destruct, giving Foa Foa a chance to make it all the way. That'll just be awesome.

First off, I want to thank all of the Survivor fans who voted for the People’s Choice nominations. Thanks to your support we were nominated for Best Competition Show. Survivor previously won the Peoples Choice Award in 2001, 02, 03, 04 and thanks to our loyal fans we are once again nominated. If you have time and want to vote for us to win, simply to go:http://www.peopleschoice.com/pca/vote/

Okay to this weeks episode…

I KILLED SOMETHING Y’ALLLittle ole Natalie is really coming of age out in Samoa.

Natalie killing the rat is one of my favorites moments of all time. It’s wrong on so many levels but never ever fails to make me stop what I am doing and watch.

If you pitched this as the opening scene to a new Wes Craven horror movie, you’d sell the idea in the room:

Extremely attractive twenty-something blonde wearing a skimpy golden-roped string bikini is wandering through the woods alone. Tired. Scared. Reallllly hungry. She encounters a rat scrounging for food. So as not to alert the rat or mess up her pedicure, she tip toes through the jungle inching closer and closer to her prey. Silently picking up a large stick she hammers the rat to death with one strong blow.

Natalie: “It was really hard for me because he was looking at me.. he was cute… but I’ve never been this hungry in my entire life.”

Therein lies one of the most beautiful things about Survivor. If forces people to confront truths about themselves they might otherwise never have to face. Think about what you witnessed. A pretty little pharmaceutical sales rep walking barefoot thru the jungle, in a bikini, whacking a rat until it’s dead. That’s not normal behavior.

I believe it was difficult for Natalie to kill the rat and I also believe she never second- guessed it. She had never been so h-u-n-g-r-y in her entire life. Who knows how far she would have gone for a burger.

YES, that will most definitely be a part of the live Survivor: Samoa Reunion show on CBS Sunday, December 20th in Los Angeles.

REWARDThe Sliding Rocks are one of those amazing natural wonders that you often find in the most unlikely of places. They were as fun as they looked, both for adults and for kids and I think it’s one of those moments the Survivors will probably only appreciate years from now when they look back and remember the time they spent in that beautiful little pocket of the world.

But let’s be clear, as fun as the rocks are they’re not nearly as much fun as sliding down a hillside built on a million one-dollar bills… that is always the ultimate goal in this game.

HE DID IT AGAINWhile the Galu gang was sliding down the rocks, frolicking in the water and eating chocolate brownies, Russell was putting himself one step closer to the million dollars doing what he does better than anybody in the history of this game… finding another HIDDEN immunity idol without the help of a clue.

You need not waste any time responding to this blog about how I give Russell too much credit. I won’t respond. Nobody has ever done what he is doing. So smart and so obvious when you think about it. Of course the idol has to be somewhere that is somewhat easy to find, because we want it to found. If we hid it in the middle of nowhere people wouldn’t find it even with 20 clues. We just have never had anybody take the initiative to start looking without the clue. It’s really quite brilliant. Like it or not, the pirate with the missing tooth continues to reinvent the game.

Come on, just admit it – Russell is growing on you a little bit, right?

I’m still shaking my head because in many ways it reminds me of Richard Hatch in season one. It’s as though the rest of the players are playing a different game. It certainly doesn’t mean he’ll win or even make it to the end but there is no denying he is playing a different game than anybody else.

INSIGHT: While we’re on the subject of hidden immunity idols. A lot of people have been asking me why I have not been asking “If anybody has the idol and you want to play it now is the time to do so…” before I read the votes. Here’s why – this season the clues have all been secretive. So there is no way for me to be certain that everybody knows there is an idol in play. Therefore, I can never ask for them to play it at tribal council because I might be giving something away.

That is why every Survivor is told before the game begins that regardless whether I ask for it or not, if they want to play the idol I will always pause before reading the votes giving them ample time to stand up and declare their intention to play it.

LAURA STAYS ALIVERegardless whether you like the way Laura is playing or not, you have to give her credit. She is a smart and scrappy player who is holding her own in challenges. Individual challenges are one of the great elements of the game. You have the chance to save yourself and if you’re good enough, nobody can stop you.

Laura came through in a big way and clearly had no idea how desperately she needed immunity. Had she not won, she would have been voted out and Kelly would still be in the game.

I also enjoy Laura’s cocky swagger. She doesn’t pretend anything. When she’s feeling it she says it. I dig it.

CLEVER THOUGHTS FROM DAVE BALLI think Dave should publish a book filled with witty comments and observations on life. I’d read anything he wanted to write. My favorite from this week:

Dave Ball: “And as soon as we burn all the Foa Foa’s we kill a chicken. (flashes a peace sign) I’m not sharing with anybody who isn’t purple.”

SHAMBO’S PLAN BIt was a bummer to see Kelly go, as she was a bit of an innocent bystander. But when you’re playing the “quiet” game that can happen.

Coming into tribal council Galu was clearly cocky, but they damn sure did not leave with the same confidence.

When Russell stood up to play the idol once again, the reactions of Kelly, Dave, Monica and Laura were solid gold.

As I continued to read Russell votes, you could feel the Galu tribe growing anxious… wondering… whose name (from Galu) was going to come up on the parchment.

When Kelly saw her name, she knew it was over.

Goodbye dreads. Loved having you and you will be missed, although I’m sure Erik is excited you’re sticking around to be on the jury.

So… it’s now 6-4. Or is it 5-5? There’s another idol in play. What are the odds that Russell can do it again? If not, are his days numbered?

Look forward to your thoughts. I’m gonna go replay the rat scene one more time before bed.

Have to say I am still lovin Russell! He tells them what he is going to do and they just let him do it. What is up with that? But I don't get why Shambo voted for him last night. And what was her message? 10-9-B? or was it an 8?

Have to say I am still lovin Russell! He tells them what he is going to do and they just let him do it. What is up with that? But I don't get why Shambo voted for him last night. And what was her message? 10-9-B? or was it an 8?

At this point, Galu thinks that Shambo is with them, so I guess it's a hidden strategy between her and Russell that she'd vote with Galu for now. Since it wouldn't matter, as Russell had the Idol. Also, Galu'd be suspicious with a fifth vote for Kelly. Guess Shambo and Foa are still keeping their alliance under wraps so she could be a "spy" in Galu.

It’s appropriate that Erik’s comment starts this blog since the downfall of Galu all started with Galu voting out Erik, one of their own.

Survivor hindsight is no different than any other hindsight, it’s always 20-20. But man… if they only knew what they were starting, ‘ole Erik would probably still be wearing those black knee highs and most of the Foa Foa would be gone.

Instead… it’s wow, wow, wow.

Who would have ever predicted this kind of a turnaround? Galu, the tribe who dominated for so long is now in a giant hole, not unlike a grave, that they dug themselves.

They should heed the advice of Dave Matthews and start talking to the grave digger right now: “Grave digger, when you dig my grave, will you make it shallow so that I can feel the rain.”

Eric, gone. Kelly, gone. Laura, gone. What?

How in “Gods green earth” to quote Shambo, are Jaison, Mick, Natalie and Russell still in this game? Why have they been able to pull off a comeback and get themselves back in contention?

Two big reasons: The first is this… Survivor is an individual game: I keep saying it because it’s important. You can never take your eyes off the prize and the prize is ONE check for a million dollars. Not four checks, each for $250,000. Not 8 checks each for $125,000. ONE check for ONE million dollars. As long as Survivor remains an individual game it will continue to have unexpected flips and flops because everybody has their own agenda and that will always cause chaos.

The second reason for the Foa Foa comeback is “Game Play.”

Here’s my take on how Game Play factored into the comeback:33% Russell’s individual game play, 33% Foa Foa sticking together and 33% Galu just flat out blowing one of the most dominant leads in Survivor history. It’s like they lost their brains somewhere in the South Pacific. And as of last night’s episode, they still haven’t found it.

YOU’RE AN IDIOTI laughed out loud when John assessed Galu’s various voting strategies, each followed with: “You’re an idiot.”

I gotta say, from where I sit – and again my vantage point is all based on hindsight – he’s right. Targeting Russell? What? Here’s a guy who has shown you his willingness to play the idol and his ability to continue to find it. Trying to take out Russell makes no sense at all. Not in this episode anyway.

Mick has the individual immunity necklace so they really only had two choices: Natalie or Jaison. John is right, you have to try to get intel and/or take a guess as to who is the least likely to be given the idol and vote for them. It’s the only vote.

Maybe if they had done that things would have turned out differently. But I think a big part of John’s dilemma probably stemmed from the question of whether or not he believed the remaining Galu members were smart enough to help him make it to the end.

Laura and Dave’s jungle strategy meeting certainly didn’t give him any peace of mind, although it did provide me a favorite moment courtesy of Dave Ball:

John: “The vote is Natalie. Times five. Find a problem with that. I know you’d rather not—-“Dave: “No, no, no. I’ll burn her right now, I do not care… bro.”

I really do pull for Dave Ball. Can’t explain it, doesn’t even matter why, I just pull for the dude. I have since he first walked into casting a couple years ago and continued even though we didn’t put him on the show at that time. When we brought him back again for Survivor: Samoa I was still rooting for him and as I write this tonight, I still am.

Back to John. When he found out they were going to use him as the bait, things really started to shift. Once that happens, a mutiny is almost sure to follow as people start to jump off the sinking ship. People like John.

BACK TO THE STARTLike a good Tarantino movie, let’s play with structure a little bit and jump back to the start of the episode.

When everybody returned to camp after the last tribal council, Dave Ball came over to the Foa Foa four and said:

“You guys tell Galu I said this, ‘good move!’” Did I miss something? Does anybody know what Dave is talking about? Dave, you ARE Galu, and the move Foa Foa made was as much on YOU as anybody else.

Laura said it best: Wow.

She then followed with “I can’t believe that little snake.” Why is Russell a snake? Because he’s playing the game?

It’s always fun to hear one group talk about the other. When Laura wins two immunity challenges, it’s “Awesome.” When Russell finds the idol, he’s a snake? Nah. He’s awesome too, just in a different way.

LAST TRIBAL COUNCILGoing back even further, (still with me?) let’s return to the end of the last episode when I said:

JEFF: (at last tribal council) “One more thing, the hidden immunity idol goes back into the game.”

As I said those words, I was thinking the same thing everybody else was thinking…Can he do it again? Can Russell find the idol for a third time?

Russell: “They’re like magnets to me, I’m just drawn to them.” Now that is a damn funny and very cocky comment, but hard to argue.

THE HUNT IS ONIt was one of the funniest scenes of the season, the entire group scurrying about looking for the idol. And even with everybody following Russell…he STILL found it.

You wonder why nobody else finds the idol? Just take a look at how the rest of the group was looking for it?

Jaison could barely be bothered to pick up a rock. Dave was merely following Russell and in doing so nearly stumbled upon the idol but because he is so concerned with Russell he walks away from it and chases back after Russell. Hilarious.

Laura is following Dave so she’s no help. And what does Russell do? He easily loses everybody and doubles right back to where Dave was half-assed looking and finds… the… third… idol.

THREE IDOLS! Come on. You have to give him some credit. Check that, a lot of credit. We’ve had hidden immunity idols for a long time now and up until this season nobody has ever thought to just start looking for them, with or without a clue. Russell was so on top of his game that he gave us Producers a run for our money. We were as shocked as you are that he continued to find them before anybody else.

Once again I ask, “He’s starting to grow on you a little, right?”

REWARD CHALLENGELet’s give credit where credit is due – the difference in the Reward challenge was Natalie. Period. She won that challenge for her group. She extended her body waaaaaay out over the platform gripping it with only her feet and used her flexibility to reach much further than John was able to and that was the difference.

THE GAME IS GETTING COMPLICATEDNow that Galu is starting to scramble it throws everything into chaos.

Galu actually had a very solid idea. It took some doing, but Galu actually game up with a good plan. Convince Foa Foa they are taking out another one of their own – John. In fact, Monica did a very good job of working Foa Foa trying to convince them the vote was for John. Trusting anybody is tough on Survivor, but in terms of pure performance, she did a great job of justifying why she would not vote for Laura but would vote for John.

But John’s no dummy. Getting even one vote at tribal council is never a good thing. Getting four votes is way too risky. It suddenly becomes too easy for someone to “change their mind” and just vote you out.

Also working against the plan is the fact that Russell is as usual, one step ahead. He’s not buying it and he’s not backing off his plan to vote off Laura.

WHAT WILL HE DO?John: If I’m gonna give you a Galu before you give me a Foa Foa, the next one needs to be a Foa Foa. Deal?Russell: Deal.

But even as he said it, John knew he would be making a deal with a guy who has proven week after week he cannot be trusted. That’s why Survivor is still on, 19 seasons later. You can never be sure what exactly is the best move.

THE VOTEIt all came down to John. Does he risk his neck to save Laura and hopefully get rid of a Foa Foa member putting Galu back in charge… or… does he play a more self-serving game and flop to save his own hide knowing his quest for the million dollars may have gotten just a little bit tougher.

John played it brilliantly. He stayed true to Galu through the first vote, forcing a tie. This gave him the chance to see what was really going to happen. Then he had a choice:

A. Let it go to a tie and draw rocks, putting him in jeopardy of being sent home or…B. Flip to Foa Foa thus ensuring he would stay in he game at least one more day.

He flipped and Laura became the third member of the jury. That was a big move.

IN CONCLUSION (Don’t you love it when you hear those two words.. finally, it’s over)I know that Laura had people rooting for her and against her. Say what you want, but one thing you have to give Laura credit for is playing the game. From a producer point of view, she gave us everything we could have hoped for and then some. Sorry you had to go Laura, see ya at the live show.

QUESTION OF THE DAY:If you had to vote today for your “favorite” player from this season? Who would it be? I’m not talking about who you want to win the game, although it might be the same person, I’m talking about your “favorite” overall player or person in the game?

REWARD CHALLENGELet’s give credit where credit is due – the difference in the Reward challenge was Natalie. Period. She won that challenge for her group. She extended her body waaaaaay out over the platform gripping it with only her feet and used her flexibility to reach much further than John was able to and that was the difference.

I am hearing a lot of Russell haters that think he is a plant after finding the 3rd idol. I don't care even if he is a plant! He has made this season very entertaining and is one of the few on the show that actually have a personality.

I didn't like Russell in the beginning but he is brilliant and for me, the best Survivor player ever. He's changed the way the game will be played from now on. (Not that it will work to mimic Russell's play because it can't be done.)

I didn't like Russell in the beginning but he is brilliant and for me, the best Survivor player ever. He's changed the way the game will be played from now on. (Not that it will work to mimic Russell's play because it can't be done.)

Russell made Survivor interesting all over again. And it took 19 seasons for a really evil evil villian to appear.. and SURPRISINGLY, to be well-liked by so many?!

No blog this week. I’m having Thanksgiving with the family. Hope you are all having a good holiday and enjoyed the “recap” show.

If you didn’t enjoy it, don’t blame me! I don’t really like them either but sometimes they’re a necessary evil, because…INSIGHT: In the television world, Thanksgiving evening is a tough night to get people to watch television. So often networks will air re-runs or “specials” and save their original episodes for the following week.

Same thing often happens with Survivor during March Madness when college basketball takes over the airwaves.

We just don’t want any of our loyal fans to miss out on an episode of Survivor. Especially this season with so much great stuff happening.

I hope you’re ready for a great finish. So many questions…

Can Foa Foa continue their run? Or is Galu going to figure out a way to stop them?

yea i was just thinking about russell he is becoming like dr will from bb to me?? i def did not like him the frist epi pouring out all the water ?? when u do un nessaser things to ppl to make them miserable when they r all ready meseable enought it is just wrong, so i still don't like that mess but i do like the other stuff i apreh some good game play and finding all the idols realy,who does that??? keeping the rest of his old trip in tackt he has redeamed himself. i am rooting for mick trimming hes cute...

Once again history repeats itself. It always does. Especially on Survivor. Anybody remember back on Survivor: All-Stars when Boston Rob pleaded with Lex to save his soon-to-be wife, Amber, promising his loyalty in return? We all remember how that turned out… Lex was the next person voted out. Sound familiar?

John made a huge move last week when he aligned with Russell and Foa Foa and switched his vote forcing Laura out of the game. It was a big move that I fully appreciated. He risked alienating Laura and other Galu members to put himself in a better position in the game. Unfortunately for John, the big move was poorly executed.As always hindsight is 20-20, so ”with all due respect” to John (which my buddy Lopez says means you don’t actually respect the person at all), I offer this analysis of why John is no longer in the game.

John made three big mistakes that led to his ouster. The first mistake John made was in making a deal with the one guy you simply cannot trust – Russell. Russell is nothing if not consistent and he is consistently untrustworthy.

Russell is also a great player. Yes, I said GREAT. Russell used John like a mercenary. By convincing John to switch sides, he got what he needed which was another Galu member voted out. That was John’s second mistake. He should have insisted that in order to get his vote, they must first vote out a Foa Foa. He didn’t. That was a fatal mistake. Because once Laura was voted out, John was no longer of any use.

From Russell’s vantage point, it was an easy and extremely wise vote to get rid of John as soon as possible. In doing so, Russell and the rest of the Foa Foa tribe officially changed the game. Foa Foa (plus Shambo) is now in control of the numbers. Brilliant.

AUCTIONOne of the best ideas we’ve had in recent years was in Guatemala when we introduced the ”advantage” to the auction. Danni bid on the advantage, it helped her win the challenge and she ended up winning the game. Jaison made a great move in buying the advantage. It’s money well spent and we (producers) always make sure that the advantage is significant enough that if you play it right, you have a very good chance of winning the challenge. It’s the biggest move Jaison has made in the game and it paid off big time.

To be fair, it’s easy to sit at home and say Jaison made the right move in buying the advantage, but when he saw Mick buy an entire meal moments later for the same amount of money, believe me he had 2nd, 3rd, 4th thoughts about how he had spent his money.

But by the time the challenge came around Mick’s meal had already made it’s way in, through, and out his body and it clearly didn’t help him in the challenge. Good move, Jaison.

Side note: Dave Ball, thank you for not bidding on the shower.

APPLE PIE – THE THIRD MISTAKEThe biggest moment of the auction was not the $200 peanut butter and jelly sandwich that Natalie bought, nor was it Jaison buying the advantage in the challenge. The biggest moment of the auction was John deciding to not share the apple pie with the rest of the tribe. His third and final mistake.

John: I’m confident that nobody is going to vote me off because I didn’t give them a piece of apple pie.”

NOTE TO ALL FUTURE SURVIVORS: Whenever you are given a selfish vs. selfless choice, you ALWAYS choose the selfless option. Always, always, always. Survivor is a social game. John could have used that pie to buy a lot of good will from a lot of people, and I absolutely believe had he done so he would still be in the game. Instead he lost even more favor because he was seen as selfish. The truth is it was a golden opportunity that he wasted. Then again, I say that as I am finishing up a pizza while I write this blog. It’s a tough position to be in for sure, but that’s why we do it – to force the Survivors to make tough decisions.

We’ll never know for certain how much of a part it played in him being voted out, but it definitely did not help him, and had he given up the pie he might have saved himself. You never want to give anybody a reason to vote you out. Never.

While we’re at it, if you ever find yourself playing Survivor and muttering something that begins with: ”I’m confident…and ends with ”won’t get voted off” start packing your bag, cause the blindside is already in motion.

CHICKEN SOUPAdmittedly, Shambo is a bit of a kook, but you have to find a soft spot in your heart for a woman who shares a clearly heartfelt goodbye to an about-to-be slaughtered chicken and promises to see them in heaven when they’re back together… only moments before she cooks them over an open fire.

IMMUNITY CHALLENGEFirst off, Natalie was impressive. A major effort. I tested this challenge myself and those wooden planks were very heavy. Natalie dug deep and outlasted everybody except Dave and Jaison and Jaison had an advantage.

I was so happy to see the advantage pay off for Jaison. Not because I’m rooting for him but because I respect big moves. Spending all of his money for one advantage was a big move.

TRIBAL COUNCILThe look of shock on John’s face was one of the best of the season. It was almost, not quite, but almost, hard for me to watch. He never ever saw it coming.

Also, I’m not sure why Laura is so concerned with whether Shambo knew what was going on or not, but it says to me that there is clearly still some bitterness between the two and if Shambo makes it to the final you can bet she will not have Laura’s vote.

So where do we stand now? Well, this much we know for sure: It is a new game. Foa Foa is now in charge and you can bet that Monica, Dave and Brett are very worried about their future.

The good news is that once again the numbers are uneven and that means that somebody on Foa Foa is now a potential swing vote. The remaining Galu members have to find the crack. They have to find out who is on the bottom of the Foa Foa totem pole and convince them that joining forces is in everybody’s best interest.

The only shot they have of pulling that off is if they start thinking like Russell and ask themselves, ”What Would Russell Do?”

See ya next week. Don’t forget to check out the deleted scene below and read Dalton’s recap.

Man, I gotta say… another awesome episode. Yeah I know I’m biased, but come on, that was a great show!

And now there is absolutely no debate. Foa Foa has done it. They have come back from an eight to four deficit and now are in charge of the game. Think of the odds Vegas would have given you on that not happening. Well, Vegas wouldn’t actually give you any odds, since they know the show has already been taped and they know that I would have emptied my bank account to take that bet and would now be retired living in Palau.

FIRST IMMUNITY CHALLENGENobody ever said all challenges would be created equal. If there is one consistent element of Survivor challenges it’s that they’re typically not things you can practice at home. When’s the last time anybody went bowling… using a coconut for the ball. But it was a little bit exciting, right? I loved Jaison pacing around the deck “visualizing” his final immunity winning toss. But hey, it paid off and kept Jaison in the game one more day.

NATALIE DOES HER LAUNDRYIt was a small moment but I hope you caught it as it speaks to the essence of Survivor. Natalie, in the midst of living on an island with a group of strangers, battling physically, emotionally, and socially for a million dollar prize still takes the time to wash and then hang her underwear on a branch in an attempt to keep them clean. You don’t get that moment on any other show.

FIRST TRIBAL COUNCILI hated to see ole Danger Dave go home. It’s no secret I root for the guy. He should be proud he hung in there a long time in a very tough game, but now it’s jury time, brotha.

Monica is a risky player. All she had to do was say, “If you say Dave, I say Dave” and let it go. But Monica was playing to WIN, not take second. I appreciate that kind of play very much. The fact that it didn’t work is irrelevant. You have to be willing to make those kinds of moves to have any shot of winning.

THIS IS HOW YOU PLAY SURVIVORWhen Russell began to get worried about Mick turning on him he made a statement that speaks to the kind of game he is playing:

That sentence, especially those last six words, “cause that’s what I would do” is the absolute essence of how you should always play Survivor. John Nash, the dude that was the inspiration for the movie, “A Beautiful Mind” spelled it out clearly in his thoughts on game theory. He said you must always make your best move based on the assumption that the other person is making their best move. That means you have to get inside their head, think what their best move is, assume they will make that move and based on that make your best move.

When Russell says, “cause that’s what I would do” that is precisely what he is doing. That is how you have to play Survivor. It’s one of the main reasons Russell has been so successful in this game. He is playing an extremely intelligent game. Don’t judge that book by its cover or the lack of a tooth here or there, the guy is putting that little pirate head to good use.

SECOND IMMUNITY CHALLENGEHmm… might as well just use the same line I used when describing the first immunity challenge:

“Nobody ever said all challenges would be created equal. If there is one consistent element of Survivor challenges it’s that they’re typically not things you can practice at home. When’s the last time anybody…. had to jump on a board to launch a bag into a basket 12 feet in the air.”

Thirty-three days of no food reduced Monica’s body weight to such a low level that the poor thing didn’t weigh enough to even get the bag close to the basket above her head. Worse news, Brett won immunity. It forced her into a desperate position – convince two people from Foa Foa to turn on one of their own.

AND SO SHE TURNED UP THE HEATMonica did a good job of stirring up the dust. She did such a good job that it almost worked. And she brought up a topic that doesn’t get much attention but is often a major factor in who ends up winning the game…

I CAN MAKE OR BREAK YOU ON THE JURYOkay, you want insight, here’s some insight. When Monica uttered those words to Russell: “I can make or break you on the jury” it was a million dollar threat. Mark my words… A million dollar THREAT.

When someone is voted out and joins the jury, there is absolutely nothing to stop them from talking to other jury members and trying to influence the vote at the final tribal council. A disgruntled jury member, (wait is that redundant?) could easily influence another jury member simply by making up a story that never happened and attribute it to someone who has made it to the final. In fact, it’s possible that one jury member could influence an entire jury. Even if we could keep the jury separated right up until tribal council, they could still talk and whisper to each other. So, what this means is you have to play an even better social game than it might appear. You have to develop such strong personal relationships that you are “lie proof” and that is not easy to do… but it is achieveable.

This season is still waaaaay up in the air. So many different ways it could turn depending on who makes it to the final.

We have two weeks left. Next Thursday and then the finale the following Sunday.

Long before the Survivors participate in a challenge it has already gone through an extensive testing process. It begins with a “test block” where our dreamteamers do a light run-through of the challenge so we can see how it’s coming along.

When we did the first test block for last night’s “Coconut Drop” reward challenge it was rough. We all agreed that it was a brilliant and inventive challenge but it wasn’t quite right. So we gave some notes and our art department made some changes and we tested it again. Technically it was working much better but it was still taking a long time to complete.

We debated reducing the number of coconuts so that it would play faster. But John Kirhoffer and Dan Munday, the geniuses who created the challenge, reminded us that if we reduced the coconuts the challenge would lose a lot of impact. The only way to change the challenge would be to completely redesign it. Well, this was a challenge that had already taken a couple of weeks to design and construct, so the idea of starting over was out of the question. We went ahead with the challenge as planned and it played beautifully. There was great drama and some character revealing moments surrounding Natalie and religion and Shambo and her hair. So, on that front it was a hit. But it took nearly four hours to complete. Four hours… and that’s simply too long.

To give context, not counting endurance challenges which are in their own category, the average challenge takes 15 minutes to run. The reason four hours is too long is that it affects everything else on the schedule. Because we’re behind, the reward itself is now delayed and could result in us having less time on the reward than we desire. The losing team of Survivors who are returning to camp have less daylight for us to shoot reality and conduct interviews. It’s a domino effect. If we have a tribal council that night, we might have to go later than normal and that means our crews are working longer days than we anticipated and then you have to get up the next day to do it all again and you’re already behind. You get the point.

The good news is that this rarely happens. I’m talking maybe once every other season. That’s how good our challenge guys are at designing these contests. They really know their stuff.

WHY WE DO TEAM REWARDS DURING THE INDIVIDUAL PORTION OF THE GAME

There is a specific reason that we will often run a “team” challenge during the individual portion of the game and that is because we want to continue to mix things up and cause conflict. When you send only three people on a reward and the other three are left behind you have a very good chance of a new alliance forming or somebody sharing information that will turn the game around.

The reason it works is because people are often either desperate and/or suspicious, as they should be, and they use this opportunity to do a little detective work or to stir things up. Survivor is so much easier to play from the confines of your living room, much more difficult to actually be “in” the game where every decision is a potential million dollar choice or mistake.

You saw it happen at the reward challenge where Russell, Jaison, and Shambo started investigating Natalie’s decision to choose Brett as her teammate. That simple little discussion could change the game 180 degrees. That’s all it takes for a month-long alliance to come crumbling down. Or if you’re Russell it’s merely another opportunity to capitalize on everybody else’s paranoia and move one step closer to the end.

BRETT IS AN ISLAND

There was no hiding that the Foa Foa four wanted to get rid of Brett. They talked about it at every challenge and at tribal council. It was quite refreshing to not have them pretend that “maybe Brett has a shot to stay.” Anything can happen but if Brett loses an immunity challenge he will be in serious trouble. If Brett makes it to the final, short of a total meltdown, I think he wins the million dollars.

IMMUNITY CHALLENGE

This challenge was the prototype for a Survivor challenge. It looks simple, you can play it at home, but after a 36 days of playing Survivor, merely counting pigs can drive you insane.

There were lots of different strategies going on. I stayed back in the counting area so I could monitor everything. Russell would memorize a couple of numbers and head out. Brett had a different strategy. He stayed for a long time, storing many numbers in his head, never panicking. I love watching challenges play out in front of me, knowing the decisions the Survivors are making are often do or die. Clearly for Brett, it paid off.

THE MULLET IS GONE

Well, there is no hiding my sadness that Shambo is gone. She was loved by some and despised by others, but from my little perch she was a great Survivor contestant. She had a point of view and she shared it openly. She had a sense of humor about herself, she was a pretty good player and without question Shambo was memorable.

I can tell you right now that some of the other Survivors from this season who are reading this as you are will be screaming at me for being nice to Shambo. Not my problem. I wasn’t in the game, I only know what I see and what I saw I enjoyed. I’m not saying Shambo wouldn’t get on my nerves over time, I’m only saying I liked what I saw.

SO WHERE DO WE STAND

When we finished shooting Survivor: Samoa I had mixed feeling about how the season would play for the audience. I knew we had a star in Russell but I wasn’t sure if we had anything else.

I have had hundreds of people stop me to tell me this is one of their favorite seasons. I realize that may not ring true to everybody reading this, but for a lot of people this has been a great season. Russell is truly a star and like him or not the fact that he is still in the game as we go into the final episode is a very good thing. The Foa Foa comeback has also been a major storyline this season.

Equally interesting is that Brett is still alive. Suddenly the quiet T-shirt designer is only a few days and one or two challenges away from a legitimate shot at a million dollars.

Even though I do know the outcome of who makes it to the final, I am still going to give you the same predictions I felt at this point when we were shooting the show:

Brett – If he makes it to the final, I think Brett has a really good shot at getting enough votes to win the money. Some of the jury may not feel he deserves it, but with a jury made up of Galu, the odds are in his favor.

Russell – Hands down the strongest player of this season. NO doubt about it. The big question is “Can he get the vote?” That really will depend on whether the jury takes an intellectual approach (if so he has a chance) or an emotional approach (his chances diminish significantly.) If he makes it to the final he will have his work cut out for him.

Natalie – With only five people left, I’d say Natalie has fairly good odds of winning this game. Her biggest challenge is going to be getting to the final. If Brett continues to win, Natalie could be in trouble because she is a threat to win the game. Her best strategy would be to continue to stand next to Russell and vote the way he says.

Jaison – He has a reasonable shot depending on who he is up against. If Jaison is up against Mick and Natalie I think he could make a pretty compelling argument and might sway the jury his way. He was a slow burn but I think people have come to appreciate his integrity.

Mick – I think Mick is the longshot. The one thing that could turn it for Mick is if he makes it to the final and then reveals that he has been playing “quiet” for a reason. If Mick turns out to be a great orator he could surprise everybody and change the minds of the jury at the final tribal council.

I hope you’re excited for our finale on Sunday. I think it’s going to be fun to watch and the Reunion show should be a kick as well.

AND THIS JUST IN…

On a separate note, I just found out that the pilot for a new show I created with Mark Burnett, called “LIVE FOR THE MOMENT” will air at 8 pm on Thursday, Jan. 28th, 2010. If you’re looking for something new that offers great adventure as well as an uplifting message about how to get the most out of life, I hope you’ll check it out and encourage your friends to watch. I’m really proud of it and I hope it connects with an audience. The only way a show like this gets a chance for a second episode is if people watch the first one! Thanks for the support.

FINAL BLOG

I may not be able to write a blog following the finale. I will do my best but I want to be up front and share that it just might not happen.

So with that in mind I will take a small leap ahead and say… “Survivor 20…..” Wait till you see what we have in store for you! I think you’re gonna dig it!

Thanks to Entertainment Weekly for letting me do these blogs again and thanks to Dalton Ross for the weekly reminders to get my blogs finished on time.

Finally, thanks to you guys, the fans, our loyal audience, the people who read this blog and respond with your comments. I read your comments every week and I learn a lot from them. Sometimes your comments even get copied and sent to our producers or our challenge department because you make some very good points in your analysis of the show.

On a separate note, I just found out that the pilot for a new show I created with Mark Burnett, called “LIVE FOR THE MOMENT” will air at 8 pm on Thursday, Jan. 28th, 2010.

So here is one slot that S20 will not be starting in.

Logged

"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

I usually watch Survivor by myself, (my husband has never got into it) until this season, he has absolutely loved Russell. He is just the type of guy "you love to hate" , was he evil, "Yes", did he do somethings that were not necessary, "Yes", but after watching 19 seasons, (and yes I have watched from day 1) is he probably the best player ever? Absolutely, with out a doubt. Did he get robbed tonight? "Yes, he did". But anyone who watches Survivor knows, "They never give the money to someone who does not need it" To the best of my memory, they have never given the money to someone who is already successful in a business. I hope when the cast for Survivor 20 comes out that his name is on the list, Villian or Hero? who knows. Thanks for a wonderful season.