Over the course of the past several weeks, some of our core views and themes have fallen into short term corrective mode. Specifically, we are referring to our bearish US Treasury view and our bullish US $ view (most notably against €, CHF and many EMFX, as well as gold and silver). In the week ahead, we look for these trends to re-emerge and do so in a manner that should provide some excellent low risk, high reward trade setups. Beginning with US Treasuries, we likely look to sell 10yr notes into the 2.53%/2.49% zone for the Apr-04 highs at 2.82% and beyond. In FX, we will likely look to re-initiate €/$ shorts into the 1.3676/3735 zone for a resumption of its medium, potentially long term bear trend and in $/ZAR we will likely look to re-buy near the 50d (10.5357) for a resumption of its long term bull trend and new 2014 highs (now 11.3915). Finally, gold is fast approaching the 1334/72 topping zone from which we look for significant weakness to and through 2013 lows at 1180.

Chart of the week: US 10yr Treasury yields to resume higher

In our view, the bear trend is about to resume. Intra-day charts say the 2wk consolidation is in its final stages. We will likely look to sell one last push lower, ideally to 2.53%/2.49%, for a resumption of the larger bull trend to 2.82% & beyond.

Get ready to sell EURUSD...

The choppy range of the past several weeks has been frustrating, but now evidence says the medium, if not long term bear trend is about to resume. We will likely look to go short on one last squeeze to 1.3676/1.3735 for a resumption of the larger downtrend to 1.3104 and below. NOTE: we may also look to buy $/CHF

...and buy USDZAR

The impulsive advance (seen clearly on intra-day charts) following the test and hold of the 50wk avg/3yr t/line (10.3867/10.3778) says that $/ZAR has resumed its l/term uptrend. We will look to re-enter longs into the 50d (10.5337) for new 2014 highs

Setting up for a sell in gold

In last week’s KrystalBull we wrote that “the medium term trend has turned higher” for gold but that “gold bulls should not get too enthusiastic. AT BEST, we think it can reach the 1334/1374 area (measured move and yearlong contracting range highs) before topping and substantial weakness”. The strength of last week’s move caught us off guard and says that the 1334/1374 topping zone could be reached much more quickly than anticipated. We will look to go short into this zone. As can be seen from the chart below, gold is close to resuming its almost 3yr downtrend after a year of consolidation, with targets seen for a test and break of the 2013 lows at 1180.

Anyone who likes Bitcoin will probably like this article I just finished reading, most excellent! A lot of BTC have been sitting around for a long time "doing nothing". Here is the first analysis I have seen, very interesting:

The United States is not engaged in picking or choosing or advocating for any one individual, or series of individuals, to assume the leadership of Iraq. That is up to the Iraqi people and we have made that clear since day one. It is up to the people of Iraq to choose their future leadership."

The United States of America was not responsible for what happened in Libya, and nor is it responsible for what is happening in Iraq today."

What is happening in Iraq is not happening because of the United States in terms of the current crisis."

ALL THE TBTF BANKS HAVE BEEN SO WRONG ABOUT GOLD ALL FUCKING YEAR ITS OBVIOUS THEY ARE SIMPLY SPEWING US PROPAGANDA!

-Civil War in Iraq - Check

-Civil War in Ukraine - Check

-Negative GDP Print in Q1 Post Taper - Check

-Gold Up Nearly 10% Since the Taper was Announced - Check

-Silver Fix Ending in August - Check

-BOE Losing over 700 Tons of Gold - Check

-Austria asking for an Audit of their Reserves - Check

-Belgium FRAUD Bond Buying - Check

-Russia Selling 20% of it's T-Bills for Gold - Check

-China setting up Free Trade Zones for PMs - Check

-GLD inventories have barely moved since 2014 started - Check

-Crude due to Surge on ME Crisis - Check

The case for gold and silver are so bullish to be downright ABSURD and yet the TBTF banks keep doing everything they can to shit on it like they have ALL YEAR and ALL YEAR they've been wrong. We are setting up for something massive here and all you have to do is pay attention to the garbage being spewed by these lying fucks to see it...

AND PLEASE DO NOT MISUNDERSTAND ME! I strongly suspect the POG and POS could crash before the end of June since these fucks ALWAYS paint the Quarter Months the way they want - what makes June even worse is it's the midpoint - notice we had our double bottom set in June and December last year.

The next 10 business days could be bearish simply because of the manipulation of the midyear charts as usual but the world is burning before us and there's no long term escape other than silver and gold. I strongly suspect we could see new all-time nominal highs by the end of the year.

I don't think we are going to see the selloff. Consider what happened last week. Someone on the scene is a serious player. You don't behave like unruly children when someone in the room has a big stick.

What makes you think that person or entity is not the same one manipulating the price downward? We had a record number of shorts get burned last week because of that buyer - so does it not stand to reason that buyer is now the same one going short while all the specs go long again?

I do not think there's a mystery buyer. I think it's just the banks flipping it the other way now. They're setting up a smash over the next 10 days imo. Barring of course, if war were declared... I really hope you're right but the banks have played this back and forth BS for over a year now just burning the specs all the way along.

In the new normal, non of those things matter, fundamentals don't matter. All of those things you listed should have led to a massive dollar sell off and a stock market decline, and a big surge in gold and silver( what he have seen lately hardly counts as a 'big surge' IMO. What we are witnessing here is central planning. The fed and big banks control everything, and wish to see high stock markets, stable bond markets, a relatively weak dollar, and suppressed PM prices. As long as the world accepts the dollar, nothing changes. It works until it doesn't. Not saying it won't all disintegrate eventually, since all unsustainable things must stop eventually, I just don't think this is it. I bet gold is slammed down at the open, and silver follows. Along with a healthy .75-.8 % up day in the S&p.

Paper gold is capable of anything these manipulators want to do with it. I guarantee you that this moron doesn't own a single piece of physical. He's totally into the cool aid. I hope he's right. Back at $1250, back up the truck!

The only explanation I can think of why these TA pricks stuff their pieces full of jargon, pseudo-statistics and invalid extrapolations, claiming that they can predict future prices, is that their bosses and the idiots giving them money are too fucking dumb to see through the high-density bullshit which has no greater probability of success than flipping a coin.

Rest assured they will bitch slap this whore back down again. That said, I think the lows will be higher each time becuase she is finally wising up to the fact and sees it coming more quickly each time.

I like using APMEX no problems buying or selling. I have bought a lot of gold and silver on Ebay over the years believe it or not only had one delivery problem over hundreds of purchases. Bought three four coin American Eagle gold proof sets and the gold price spiked right after and the seller never delivered. PayPal made it right but my money was tied up for three months. The whole time gold was steadily going higher. Most of my gold buys were between 600-700 range. Turned out the seller was a police officer in Philadelphia, PA.

Everyone in the World knows that the physical gold claims are OVER subscribed by 100 to 1, hence the reason Germany will never recieve their demanded good for delivery and shipped back to Germany stored gold in the USA. NEVER!

Maybe they will recieve gold painted bars, or gold plated tungsten bars, but not pure gold good for delivery real Gold bars. I suspect they will reciever the middle finger salute.

Even if you don't like gold, the chart says buy and so does all the negative analyst talk. There is no point formulating an argument that will keep you riding losses if you are a trader. Above the 200 and 50 day. Downtrend broken. Up for the year. Fundamentals are crazy bullish after all gold negative predictions failed to come true. I don't trade it. But gold is not an interesting thing to hedge with short positions, to say the least.

.... bitcoin may be "used" as a spear head against a Euro/Asian drift away from the petro centric global nexus ...

.... I should have been hired by "Brookings:

... where was Satoschi/Bitcoin .... born .... in the West .....

... the West could bifurcate back to .... "innovator" .... as opposed to "consolidator" ...

... perhaps the West can again ... "shape shift"

... to maintain dominance (this would be a bullish bitcoin call)

... a "factoid"

...

... on the June 27th... the FBI will auction off 30,000 Bitcoin ..... of its 144,000 .... (by the way ... 30,000 Bitcoin are created every 8 days ..... (144,000 from silk road confiscation) ....

... the US and Great Britian seem to be embracing crypto-currency right now in its currency proxy war with China/Russia .....

...Petro-dollar forces may accept Bitcoin as a step-child to force a gold war Russia/China.....

.... Switzerland just ok'd bitcoin kiosks .... western hegemony may use the "infant" bitcoin crypto .... as a bridge to a wider maneuver that embraces crypto to bring in western dominance .... could buy it time ..... imagine the fed embracing crypto to depress gold price ..... to aid petro-dollar ...

...third eye is crypto ... store house ...

... I bought back into bitcoin after it went up after the Mt Gox fiasco ....

.... if bitcoin goes down after the auction ... I will buy a lot more .... if bitcoin goes up I will buy less coin ... but the same amount of dollars ..... I hope it goes down to 300 bucks so I can have a total of 20 coins ......

2016 ...to 2017 ..... if I can hold on to my gold and bitcoin ..... and the gov or thief's don't get it... I think I may buy some highly depressed real estate in the mountains?

Bitcoin is the West/Gold is the East

Innovators seem to come out of the West ...

Copycatters seem to come out of the East ....

Bitcoin .... to war with paper gold price ..... A western hegemony cannon ....

I have some extra cash. Should I buy gold or silver, and why gold or why silver? Besides the obvious reasons... Why would I buy one instead of the other? Split between both? Get whatever the hell I can why I can?

I do have silver already but not a large amount. I keep thinking silver is gonna be a better PM to have, but I am no expert when it comes to this stuff. If this is a noob thing to be asking then flame away I guess. Just lookin for some insight.

Silver has some added components, not the least of which is it's industrial applications, which could return more long term. It being cheaper, it is more likely to see panic buying if the masses lose faith in the banking/monetary system.

Amassing on an average in basis is still the best policy imo. Regular interval purchases until you get the amount desired. 50/50 gold/silver on a dollar basis is how I allocate.

Viewing it as a single premium insurance policy is the best way to decide how much of your wealth to allocate. Once the "premium" is paid, the policy is valid until sold, and you can pass the policy on to your heirs if you never have to cash it in.

Good advice on the regular interval purchases. And 50/50 gold/silver is just how I allocate my PM investments.

But I do not agree that PM investments are a single premium insurance policy. You have to compare the income that could be expected from a PM investment to the higher income to be expected by other more risky investments. And if you look at it this way, it is a premium you pay all the time. Still I think PMs are good insurance, if you have wealth to insure.

Well, maybe a bit noob, but I`ll bite and give my two cents of advice:

- Do not buy PMs or any other investment, if you still have debt. The cost of your debt will probably be higher than the gain from your investment. Paying off debt is risk-free; investments are not.

- Diversifying is always good. It reduces your risk a lot more than it reduces your gains. If you ask me if you should buy A or B, I would say "both, and maybe also C and D".

- Be extremely sceptical about people who say they want to help you manage your investments and wealth. What they really want is to earn money from you. And you almost always end up earning less after paying them.

- Always keep a good buffer of cash. Good for unforseen expenses.

- When you see a really good deal for something you generally use (not just what is advertised as a good deal, but a price a lot lower than the usual best price), buy big. Do not be afraid to dig into your cash buffer for this. If you have the space to store it, do not be afraid by buy what you need for several years if you find it at a really good price. Just be careful not to buy more than you can use before it gets too old. This is the best investment for people without a lot of wealth.

- Do not budget. Budgeting is like diets, and diets rarely make people loose weight in the long run. But keep an eye on your long term cash flow. If you spend more than 90% of your income in the long run, you have a problem. Investigate your problem, and find out how to get rid of it. The most usual cause of such a problem is debt.

- Remember that PM investments are financial insurance. In the long run they give you less gains than most other investments. But PMs never go to zero, so you never loose all your wealth here. The lower gains from PM investments compared to other investments can be seen as an insurance premium on your wealth. Do not pay this premium unless you have some wealth to insure. I did not begin to invest in PMs until I was debt-free and good for more than $300k.

- Never think that a price difference of 0.1% does not matter because you think you will earn 5% on your investment. It always matters, and you should always try to get the best price and the lowest cost possible. Do not be afraid to wait. The train may be leaving today, but a new train is leaving again tomorrow.

- And finally, to go full circle, avoid debt. Debt is like a weight around your neck when you are swimming. No big problem, if the weight is not too heavy; you just have to work a bit more to keep your head over the water. Interest rates are like how heavy the weight around your neck is, and interest rates go up and down. If interest rates go up too much, you might drown.

If you found this advice useful, feel free to pay your two cents to bitcoin address 1DVtdpMgSNjWq2U2CJRYr58nakr8X9f1d

I did and will. I like what you said about debt and I have been doing that for a while. Down my last $1k in debt to be paid off. That is happening this week. I also will never go into debt again. Not for a car, not for anything.

I appreciate the answers though, I figured I would get barked at by the dogs.

Seriously, I think you are on the right path. Getting free from debt is IMHO the first step. Getting a cash buffer is the second step. I try to maintain a $5-10k buffer. Sometimes I am a bit over, and sometimes I am a bit under. And when the cash buffer tends to get to large it is time to place some of the extra cash into investments - something that can give you extra income without you having to work for it. And when you have a lot of your capital in the usual investments, divert some of it into secure investments like precious metals.

I have to admit that I am not always completely debt-free. I have a line of credit at my bank that I rarely use. It is nice to have, and it costs me nothing if I do not use it. Last time I used it is about 10 months ago, and I only used it for two days. I digged into it partly because I was low on cash, but mostly because I wanted to be a good customer at my bank. If I did not do something something this this, I guess my bank would hate me. They failed at all the usual ways banks make money from their customers. Banks are corporations who want to make money from their customers, and I am a conscious banking consumer.

Every month about a week ahead of options expiration, I check the max pain strike. Last Monday (6/16) the SLV max pain strike price was 20. Yes, TWENTY -- when the spot price was was rising slowly from upper 18. Keep in mind too, that SLV price is about 4% under spot. In other words, max pain was *significantly higher* than spot. To inflict max pain, calculating the required spot to bring the SLV strike to 20, I reckoned spot silver had to close between 20.86 and 20.90. I kept that number in mind as I watched the action.

The dramatic rise came Thursday early. (Retail can't start trading 'til 9:30.) All the (previously ITM) $19 SLV puts were wiped out -- too close to expiry to salvage any part of the position (costing more to exit than the position value).

Spot silver closed the week at $20.875.

Metalheads are so used to seeing manipulation to the down side that manipulation to the UP SIDE never comes to mind. But manipulation it was. Indeed. By superlative chart-painters. Does anyone really believe the little poke above the 3-years line of price decline signals a new bull market? Maybe I'm jaded, but I don't trust it.