Say you are looking for a frontline starting pitcher. An ace. Somebody capable of helping to lead your team into the playoffs. You could back up your organization's truck and offer two Grade A prospects and a couple of Grade B prospects and call the Minnesota Twins about Johan Santana. And if you arrange a conditional deal with the Twins, you would have the opportunity to try to convince Santana to waive his no-trade clause. That could cost you merely the largest salary for any pitcher in the history of baseball: six years, $150 million, on top of the $13.25 million he is owed for next season.

Or you could back up the organization's truck and offer three or four prospects for Oakland's Dan Haren. No strings attached, no no-trade clause. And here's the really good news: You would have to pay Haren just $4 million for 2008, $5.5 million for 2009, and he has a $6.75 million option for 2010. So not only would you have a great pitcher on the cheap for three years, you'd have cost certainty, the flexibility of not being locked into a long-term deal -- and you could spend cash that you would've had to spend on Santana to fill other needs.

Oakland executives began meeting this week to discuss what they will ask in trade for Haren, and if they decide to trade him -- a sign that the Athletics are committed to a long-term rebuilding effort -- well, it would make sense for them to trade Joe Blanton and closer Huston Street, as well. Haren is well aware of the possibility that he will be involved in a deal. "I read a lot of the stuff that's written on the Internet about me getting traded," he wrote in a text message Monday, "and it's definitely something I'm prepared for. When I was traded from the Cardinals [following the 2004 World Series] I was Christmas shopping, and it's getting to be that time of year now. From what I have read, I think [GM Billy Beane] is trying to figure out if Oakland is going to rebuild. Our team is good enough to win now if we were healthy, but that hasn't been the case lately. "I am not hoping I get traded because I love the Bay area. My home is here and I'm close to my family. But if it happens, it happens. I understand baseball."

Right now, Haren could not yet be considered an equal to Santana. The Twins' lefty has won two Cy Young Awards, and has four straight seasons of 235 or more strikeouts. He is an incredible athlete and has a tremendous feel for his changeup, all of which bodes well for the possibility that he will continue to be successful into his 30s. But over the last three years, Haren has averaged 221 innings, and last season he went 15-9, 3.07 and walked 55 in 222 2/3 innings, while striking out 192. Opponents had an OPS of .687. Haren is 27 years and two months old. Santana will be 29 years old when he throws his first pitch next season, and he is coming off a season in which he went 15-13 with a 3.33 ERA, with 52 walks and 235 strikeouts in 219 innings. Opponents compiled an OPS of .678 against him, virtually identical to that of Haren. If all of the players in the majors were put up for a draft, Santana would get picked ahead of Haren. But this situation is weighted heavily; when you stack up the price for Santana -- the cost in prospects, his salary, his forthcoming contract demands -- against the price of Haren, with his dirt-cheap salary and a contract that runs on for three more seasons, the question of who is a better value is a no-brainer. Haren would simply be a more cost-effective acquisition. And there's another option, if you're a team comfortable with the notion of spending $25 million a year on Santana (or C.C. Sabathia, who, like Santana, will be eligible to become a free agent after next year). You could trade the prospects to Oakland for Haren and gamble on the possibility that Santana and/or Sabathia will be free agents after next season, when you could sign one of the left-handers. You could have both Haren and Santana for basically the same price for which you could get only Santana now (minus the $15.25 million Haren will make over the next three years). Executives with rival teams are split about what they think is going to happen. "It's going to be very tough for Minnesota to trade him, because with [Francisco] Liriano coming back, they have a chance to win in 2008," said a major league assistant GM. "And I think the union is going to want Santana to push the market on salaries. If he takes a deal for $20 million a year, then everybody will slot in kind of where they are now, at $17 million or $18 million a year. But if he gets $25 million a year, then the market will be pulled up behind him, with the better guys getting $21-22 million." An AL GM is convinced Santana is going to be traded, and that when push comes to shove, the current asking price of $25 million a year in an extension can be negotiated down. "If somebody offers you six or seven years and $130-$140 million, how do you say no to that?" he asked rhetorically. "Especially a pitcher, whose entire career can change with one pitch -- one blown elbow." But no matter what happens with Santana, the Athletics are in a position now in which they can plow in the wake of the Santana trade talks and offer up the much more reasonably priced alternatives of Haren and Blanton.

11-29-2007, 09:29 PM

Highlifeman21

Re: Haren Vs Santana

Bailey, Wood, and Stubbs should remain high on the top of our list to trade for pitching that will actually help us between now and 2011, aka the Harang and Arroyo window of opportunity.

11-30-2007, 04:39 AM

Wheelhouse

Re: Haren Vs Santana

You seem awfully sure there's no way the Reds could get Santana. The guy over at MLB Trade Rumors thinks the Reds may be a mystery team in on the bidding. I think the Reds have more near ML ready, high-level, inexpensive talent than any of the stated teams in on the bidding. This is what the Twins need. Not Coco Crisp. The question is Santana's contract, and if Castellini took it on, it would be a new era in Reds baseball. It is not likely, but I wouldn't say there is no way the Reds could get Santana, especially with the Cordero signing. The Reds want to win this coming year... it doesn't make sense to just go halfway with their moves.

11-30-2007, 06:25 AM

Jpup

Re: Haren Vs Santana

Rich Harden or Dan Haren would be great for the Reds. I would imagine that Beane would want Bruce for either. Would a package of Votto, Cueto, & Maloney get him thinking?

11-30-2007, 06:45 AM

mth123

Re: Haren Vs Santana

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jpup

Rich Harden or Dan Haren would be great for the Reds. I would imagine that Beane would want Bruce for either. Would a package of Votto, Cueto, & Maloney get him thinking?

I doubt there is any interest in Votto in Oakland. They have Cust for DH and Daric Barton is their own young offensive 1B prospect. They actually have a 1B that they are trying to move in Dan Johnson. I think any top of the rotation starter is going to have to be a deal that includes Hamilton, Bailey or Bruce.

11-30-2007, 06:52 AM

Jpup

Re: Haren Vs Santana

Quote:

Originally Posted by mth123

I doubt there is any interest in Votto in Oakland. They have Cust for DH and Daric Barton is their own young offensive 1B prospect. They actually have a 1B that they are trying to move in Dan Johnson. I think any top of the rotation starter is going to have to be a deal that includes Hamilton, Bailey or Bruce.

Jay Bruce for Dan Haren? Deal or no deal?

I think I would have to. I would then go out and get Coco Crisp from Boston, trade Jr. for a right handed hitting prospect, put Hamilton in right, sign Dunn to a 3 year deal and I would get another lefty for the pen. I think that puts the Reds in the playoffs in 2008 or 2009.

11-30-2007, 06:57 AM

camisadelgolf

Re: Haren Vs Santana

Maybe the Reds could trade more quantity and less quality for Harden or Haren. I'd trade Juan Francisco, Travis Wood, Ty Pelland, Sam Lecure, and Drew Anderson for Rich Harden.

11-30-2007, 07:05 AM

GAC

Re: Haren Vs Santana

I don't think you have to give up Bailey or Bruce in order to possibly acquire Haren. There are other options that may be appealing to a Beane who not only wants young talent, but young inexpensive talent. And we may have that talent available in a varying combination of prospects and young ballplayers on the current roster.... Cueto, Stubbs, Woods, Mahoney, Hamilton, Cantu, EE, Keppinger, and maybe even a Brandon Phillips.

Some combination out of that mix. Worth a shot IMHO.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wheelhouse

You seem awfully sure there's no way the Reds could get Santana. The guy over at MLB Trade Rumors thinks the Reds may be a mystery team in on the bidding.

Yeah, I read that. Who is "the guy" reporting this? I think he's just throwing out unfounded conjecture.

Quote:

I think the Reds have more near ML ready, high-level, inexpensive talent than any of the stated teams in on the bidding. This is what the Twins need. Not Coco Crisp. The question is Santana's contract, and if Castellini took it on, it would be a new era in Reds baseball. It is not likely, but I wouldn't say there is no way the Reds could get Santana, especially with the Cordero signing.

I'll start a Dusty Baker fan club if the Reds sign Santana. :lol:

Yes, we have near ML ready talent; but he has a full no-trade clause, so if the players get agreed upon, then the trading team has to negotiate an extension with Santana's highly respected agent Peter Greenberg, and it's not going to be less than $20 million, closer to $25 million, and it's going to be six or seven years.

The Reds are going to have to compete, and outbid, teams like the Red Sox, Yanks, and possibly Angels. Which means they are going to have to better any offer they tender, meaning, the sun, the moon, and stars. I just don't see realistically that Castellini can/will do that. And if you were Santana, where would you sign?

With arb cases pending, Dunn's extension, Cordero, and then a Santana contract, you're tentaviely looking at a yearly payroll approaching 100 mil. I just don't see it.

Quote:

The Reds want to win this coming year... it doesn't make sense to just go halfway with their moves.

Which is why I'd like to see them take a more realistic, less financially burdening, and more attainable approach like a Haren. Set your sights on this guy and go after him. Just like they did with Cordero.

11-30-2007, 07:09 AM

MikeS21

Re: Haren Vs Santana

There is a part of me that wants to see what we have in Hamilton, Votto, Bruce, Bailey, and Cueto before we start offering them in trades.

The Reds MUST look ahead to 2009 and beyond to when Junior won't be here and a 50-50 chance that Dunn won't be here. Hamilton and Bruce sound awfully nice as replacements in RF and LF. And the Reds desperately need Bailey and Cueto to pan out mainly to legitimize the farm system.

And if Votto gets traded, the Reds will most likely go with Hattiesburg type first basemen for the 4-5 years (Sean Casey anyone?)

11-30-2007, 07:30 AM

LoganBuck

Re: Haren Vs Santana

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeS21

There is a part of me that wants to see what we have in Hamilton, Votto, Bruce, Bailey, and Cueto before we start offering them in trades.

The Reds MUST look ahead to 2009 and beyond to when Junior won't be here and a 50-50 chance that Dunn won't be here. Hamilton and Bruce sound awfully nice as replacements in RF and LF. And the Reds desperately need Bailey and Cueto to pan out mainly to legitimize the farm system.

And if Votto gets traded, the Reds will most likely go with Hattiesburg type first basemen for the 4-5 years (Sean Casey anyone?)

This pretty much sums it up for me. If you start looking at the salaries, going forward, the money has pretty much been eaten up by the Cordero signing/Phillips raises/Arroyo and Harang contracts. I realize the Reds may have some more income coming in but it will get expensive especially if they want to keep Dunn. If they are going to let Dunn walk, then they must hold on to Bruce, Hamilton, and Votto.

11-30-2007, 08:37 AM

PuffyPig

Re: Haren Vs Santana

Quote:

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Maybe the Reds could trade more quantity and less quality for Harden or Haren. I'd trade Juan Francisco, Travis Wood, Ty Pelland, Sam Lecure, and Drew Anderson for Rich Harden.

That's a lot to give up for a pitcher who likely won't pitch.

11-30-2007, 08:50 AM

Jaycint

Re: Haren Vs Santana

As much as it would sting I would do Bailey and Hamilton for Haren. IMO a top three of Harang, Haren, Arroyo is better than any other team in the NL Central and makes us the preseason division favorites with the Cordero signing taken into account as well.

Harden is much more of a risk so if I'm WK I tell Beane I'll give him Hamilton and maybe a B level prospect of his choosing from a list of 4 or 5, nothing more. The Reds are assuming some risk and the A's are assuming some in a Harden/Hamilton swap so I think those two as the primary centerpieces in a deal makes sense..

I don't throw Bruce in a deal at all. I think he's a special talent and the one player the Reds should build around offensively for years to come.

11-30-2007, 09:03 AM

camisadelgolf

Re: Haren Vs Santana

Quote:

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

That's a lot to give up for a pitcher who likely won't pitch.

I agree, but maybe it's enough for the Athletics to accept. Juan Francisco may become a star, but with his pathetic plate discipline, I think he's unlikely to make an impact at the big league level. Ty Pelland has good stuff, but his control isn't good enough for him to be consistently good, in my opinion. I think Sam Lecure is a back of the rotation starter at best. Drew Anderson may become a Major League utility player, but he'll probably end up being a AAAA player. Travis Wood, who has had problems with injuries, is the only player I might regret giving up, but if Haren provides the Reds with 50 starts over two years at an ERA of less than 4.00, I think it would be worth it.

11-30-2007, 10:46 AM

Benihana

Re: Haren Vs Santana

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaycint

As much as it would sting I would do Bailey and Hamilton for Haren. IMO a top three of Harang, Haren, Arroyo is better than any other team in the NL Central and makes us the preseason division favorites with the Cordero signing taken into account as well.

Harden is much more of a risk so if I'm WK I tell Beane I'll give him Hamilton and maybe a B level prospect of his choosing from a list of 4 or 5, nothing more. The Reds are assuming some risk and the A's are assuming some in a Harden/Hamilton swap so I think those two as the primary centerpieces in a deal makes sense..

I don't throw Bruce in a deal at all. I think he's a special talent and the one player the Reds should build around offensively for years to come.

NO WAY do I give up Josh Hamilton for Rich Harden (let alone Hamilton and a prospect). While Harden has flashed ace potential, he also has about a 10&#37; chance of ever reaching that potential due to his injuries. The most I would give for Harden would be Todd Frazier and Drew Stubbs. Maybe throw in a Freel or a Roenicke if it gets it done. But no way do I touch a key part of the major league roster, or one of the big four for a guy that has thrown significantly less innings in the last two years than Elizardo Ramirez.

I would offer a little more for Harden than I would for Prior, but not much more. And I think Beane would require much more.

Haren yes please, Harden no thanks.

11-30-2007, 11:10 AM

PuffyPig

Re: Haren Vs Santana

Quote:

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

.... but if Haren provides the Reds with 50 starts over two years at an ERA of less than 4.00, I think it would be worth it.

He's more likley to give us 5 starts over two years than 50 starts. He's had 76 starts in 5 years, 13 over the last 2.

This guy hasn't been healthy for a long time, over 2.5 years. We just can't deplete our prospects with a complete roll of the dice. This is more like buying a lottery ticket.