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Chinese Iron Marches On Russia

Asiaban:China is offering to build new railroads into
Central Asia. This is part of a $300 billion plan to upgrade and expand
Chinese railways over the next two decades. Chinese businesses are
investing more billions to create new businesses in Central Asia and the
cheapest way to get goods in or out of this landlocked area is via
rail. For over a century Russia had a monopoly on rail access to Central
Asia, largely because most of the region (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan) was part of the Russian empire
or the Soviet Union. After the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, most of
Central Asia became independent states. Russia has maintained economic
links with these new states, but the Chinese economy is more than four
times the size of Russia’s. China has more need and means. While the
Chinese railroad system is only a third in size (behind the U.S. and
Russia) it is the first in traffic worldwide. A booming economy and lack
of highways have created a demand in China for a more efficient rail
system. As a result, the Chinese system is one of the youngest on the
planet. Central Asian politicians and businessmen have been impressed by
Chinese railways and see them as a welcome addition to their own
region.

Russia is offering to build more railways into Central Asia
and help upgrade the local railways there. Russia has an edge because
those railroads were built by Russians and long run by Russian trained
personnel. Russia sees itself as defending a trade monopoly it long
enjoyed. Yet the Central Asian states are no longer part of Russia and
more than willing to entertain competing bids.

Something Russia does not like to discuss openly is the fact
that Chinese railroads extending into Central Asia would make it easier
for China to carry out major military operations in the area. With rail
lines extending deep into Central Asia China could more easily threaten a
long feared invasion of Russia to take back the eastern territories
that many Chinese believe are theirs. Such an invasion is unlikely as
long as Russian nuclear weapons can hit China (via missile or bomber).
But if that threat were diminished, a rail network in Central Asia that
is connected to China would be a much more fearsome prospect for Russia.
In the meantime, such a railroad is going to hurt the Russian economy
because Chinese firms will have cheaper access to Central Asia and will
likely drive out more expensive Russian products.