Rick Perry and the Republican presidential nomination

Over the past month, the prospect of Texas Governor Rick Perry running for president has appeared more likely with each passing day. As the governor has evaluated the current field of Republican presidential candidates (both announced and flirting with the idea like himself), he cannot help but have come to the conclusion that he compares quite favorably to these competitors on several key dimensions.

Historically, and especially today, social and fiscal conservatives (the categories are obviously not mutually exclusive) comprise a large share of the Republican primary/caucus electorate. This is especially the case in three of the four crucial early caucus and primary states (Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina) that exercise a disproportionate degree of influence over the presidential nomination process. And, Rick Perry’s conservative credentials are quite impressive (especially for someone who has served as a chief executive for over a decade).

On the fiscal front under Perry’s leadership, Texas is presently balancing its budget — primarily by reducing spending, and without raising taxes (the cuts in real per student state funding of K-12 education will, of course, force many Texas school districts to raise property taxes, but I digress). Recall as well that these cuts are taking place within the context of an already lean state budget (unlike, say, that of New Jersey or New York), and in reducing the budget lines for health care and schools, Perry did not cut fat, but rather bone marrow. Perry also has a strong track record as a proponent of limited government, and has created a very pro-business environment in Texas, allowing him to highlight his prominent successes in job creation and corporate re-location and investment.

On the social front, just this year, Perry championed legislation under which women seeking an abortion will have to undergo a sonogram and have the baby’s condition described to them (in most instances) at least 24 hours (with a few exceptions) prior to the abortion. In recent days, Perry also has partnered with the American Family Association and other evangelical Christian groups to hold a day of Christian prayer and fasting “on behalf of our troubled nation” on August 6. While it is common for politicians to appear at religious functions, it is uncommon for them to take the lead in organizing and promoting this type of overtly Christian event, a bold action that will not go unnoticed by Christian conservatives.

More generally, Rick Perry provides Republican primary voters with a very clear-cut alternative to the public policy model that would be in place should President Barack Obama continue in office for a second term. It is a model of lower taxes, reduced government spending, a conservative social policy and a more limited role for government in the economy and society. While a potential liability in the general election (discussed below), this high degree of contrast between the Perry and Obama models could represent a significant asset for Perry in the Republican primary.

In addition to his policy positions, Perry also brings with him the executive experience that comes from serving as governor of the nation’s second most populous state for more than 10 years. Even the limited numbers of his competitors (actual and potential) who possess gubernatorial experience are unable to match Perry’s tenure, and their respective states pale in size and complexity compared to Texas. For instance, the DFW Metroplex alone has a population almost equal to that of the most populous state (Mitt Romney’s Massachusetts) run by these former governors.

Lastly, while Perry has never run a national campaign, he has competed in several statewide campaigns against well-funded opponents (e.g., general election gubernatorial races against Bill White in 2010 and Tony Sanchez in 2002 and the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary against Kay Bailey Hutchison) in a geographically large and socio-demographically diverse state. These campaigns have provided him with the next-best thing to (albeit still a far cry from) national campaign experience. That, combined with his impressive ability to maintain message discipline and other strengths, makes Perry a force to be reckoned with on the campaign trail.

Take for instance Perry’s 2010 gubernatorial re-election bid. It is now easy to forget that as late, as February 2009, U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison was widely expected to become the state’s next governor. She was the most popular politician in Texas (among both the general and Republican primary electorates), had the backing of a large majority of the Texas Republican Party establishment, and held a substantial lead over Perry in the polls. By May however, Perry had pulled even with Hutchison in the polls and, as the year progressed, slowly widened his lead. Perry was able to pull away from the senator during the homestretch and win the March 2010 primary with 51 percent of the vote to Hutchison’s 30 percent (conservative activist Debra Medina won 19 percent). In November, Perry would go on to trounce the Democratic Party’s most viable gubernatorial candidate since Ann Richards, 55 percent to 42 percent.

Examining Perry’s 2010 primary victory, one number that jumps out is 51 percent — underscoring that, unlike most governors who run for re-election, Perry did not enjoy the support of a super-majority of his party’s elites and primary voters. However, Rick Perry is not a politician who wishes to be loved by all, but one who focuses on achieving the level of support necessary to win elections. And that is something he knows how to do extremely well, with a winning streak of 18 consecutive primary and general election victories (11 against competition and 7 where he was unopposed) stretching back to the May 1984 Democratic Primary in Texas State House District 64 where he garnered 59 percent of the vote in a three- way race. (Perry used to be a Democrat.)

All of the above leads to a conclusion that Rick Perry would be a viable competitor were he to enter the Republican nomination contest. Assuming he chooses to run (something which is far from a certainty), what would be his principal weaknesses? Several come to mind, and include, a lack of national visibility, U.S. voters’ recent negative experience with another Texas governor, poor relations with the mainstream media, a late entry into the race and lack of an organization in the early primary/caucus states, and the potential (albeit decreasing) of Sarah Palin entering the race. Here however, for reasons of space, I will concentrate on what I consider to be Perry’s Achilles’ Heel.

Much of what makes Perry a competitive candidate in the Republican primary makes him a vulnerable candidate in the general election. While Texas voters clearly prefer the Perry model to the Obama model, unless the U.S. economy takes a notable turn for the worse (which is not out of the realm of possibility), it is questionable whether a plurality of general election voters in a majority of the principal battleground states (i.e., Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin; and perhaps Virginia) would at present prefer the Perry model — and Perry would need to carry some of those states to defeat President Obama. This would especially be the case after several months of paid campaign commercials and unsympathetic national media coverage highlighting the “dark side” of the Perry model. One could expect a barrage of commercials and news stories discussing, among other things, the limited funding for and poor performance of Texas public schools under the governor’s stewardship, the nation-leading percentage of Texas residents without health insurance coverage, the state’s high level of income inequality, and the relatively relaxed position of the state vis-à-vis pollution by petrochemical plants during Perry’s tenure.

Looking ahead to the November 2012 election, many Republican primary voters may come to the conclusion that while their heart prefers Perry, their head tells them they should support a candidate who provides the GOP with a better chance of defeating President Obama. Therein lies perhaps the most prominent vulnerability of the Perry candidacy, though one which is also shared by several of his principal potential competitors, many of whom (e.g., Palin) could be expected to fare much worse in a head-to-head race with President Obama than Perry.

Should he choose to run, Governor Perry has the potential to win the Republican Party nomination. Whether he would be able to defeat President Obama in November 2012 at present however appears questionable (though not impossible), a reality which could in fact lead him to choose to not enter the race at all.

Mark P. Jones is the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy’s Fellow in Political Science as well as the Joseph D. Jamail Chair in Latin American Studies and Chair of the Department of Political Science at Rice University.