This is a very different look at the data than I would normally do when approaching a full season. This approach is a game by game approach, attempting to quantify each and every players’ statistical impact in each and every Tourney game. I calculate my version of statistical +- for every player in every game, and using those results dole out every player’s share of the win or loss for each game. Here’s the results, compiled overall and per game:

It’s late, I don’t have time or the gumption to go into a ton of details here – all the data is in the spreadsheet and fully sortable. Copying from the FAQ page, here’s a synopsis of the main ratings I am utilizing here and how they generally work:

PW

Player Wins. All players with >0 Statistical +- in a win will get a share of the win proportionate to their Stat+- relative to the others. All players <0 Stat+- get a 0 PW for that game.

A player might get a full 1.00 PW for a game, if he played a great game in a win & was the only player on his team with a >0 Stat+-

Summed PW for every player on a victorious team will equal 1. Compiled PW for this tourney equals 67 (67 victorious teams).

PL

Player Losses. All players with <0 Statistical +- in a loss will get a share of the loss proportionate to their Stat+- relative to the others. All players >0 Stat+- get a 0 PL for that game.

A player might get a full 1.00 PL for a game, if he played a HORRIBLE game in a loss & was the only player on his team with a <0 Stat+-

Summed PL for every player on a losing team will equal 1. Compiled PL for this tourney equals 67 (67 teams lost a game).

Stat+-

Statistical +- is a theoretical +- player stat based on his box score data relative to that specific game. A great game statistically = good positive Stat+-, a BAD game = negative Stat+-

A player might have a BIG Stat+- in a blowout win, but have a relatively small PW because many other teammates had good Stat+- & took a good share of the PW.

Compiled player Stat+- for any team in a game will exactly match the final game outcome margin. If a team wins by 5, the compiled Stat+- of the players will equal 5.0

There were 7 games that stood out the most in this tourney – in order of Player Wins:

PW

PL

Rk

Stat+/-

Rk

Player

Team

Rd

MP

PTS

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

TS%

1.00

0.00

1

15.1

13

Derrick Walton Jr

Michigan

1

39

26

5

11

2

1

3

3

78.8%

0.83

0.00

2

15.3

9

Moritz Wagner

Michigan

2

31

26

3

1

2

0

1

3

76.5%

0.82

0.00

3

18.5

6

Tyler Dorsey

Oregon

2

35

27

5

3

3

0

4

2

93.1%

0.78

0.00

4

14.3

21

KeVaughn Allen

Florida

3

37

35

0

1

1

1

2

2

60.3%

0.78

0.00

5

15.2

12

Lonzo Ball

UCLA

2

38

18

7

9

2

0

1

1

90.0%

0.76

0.00

6

24.8

1

Kennedy Meeks

North Carolina

5

30

25

14

1

3

1

0

4

78.1%

0.74

0.00

7

22.0

2

De’Aaron Fox

Kentucky

3

36

39

3

4

2

0

1

2

70.9%

The spreadsheet has all 1295 player games (including all the raw data if anyone wanted to even try to create their own ratings) on sheet #2.

All Tourney Team:

PW

PL

Diff

Rk

Stat+-

Rk

1st Team

Team

G

M/G

Pt/G

Rb/G

As/G

St/G

Bk/G

TO/G

PF/G

TS%

1.93

0.00

1.93

1

54.9

1

Kennedy Meeks

North Carolina

6

26.2

12.2

11.5

0.5

0.7

2.2

0.7

2.3

64.0%

1.86

0.00

1.86

2

44.0

4

Tyler Dorsey

Oregon

5

35.4

23.8

4.4

1.2

2.4

0.0

2.4

2.2

75.8%

1.82

0.08

1.74

3

53.1

2

Sindarius Thornwell

South Carolina

5

35.6

23.6

7.0

2.4

2.8

1.2

2.8

2.2

62.4%

1.59

0.00

1.59

4

46.7

3

Jordan Bell

Oregon

5

31.4

12.6

13.2

1.6

2.4

3.0

2.4

1.2

70.0%

1.39

0.00

1.39

5

34.6

7

Zach Collins

Gonzaga

6

18.0

9.0

6.8

0.5

2.3

3.0

2.3

3.3

67.5%

PW

PL

Diff

Rk

Stat+-

Rk

2nd Team

Team

G

M/G

Pt/G

Rb/G

As/G

St/G

Bk/G

TO/G

PF/G

TS%

1.09

0.00

1.09

6

20.6

21

Luke Maye

North Carolina

6

16.2

8.7

5.3

1.2

0.3

0.2

0.3

1.3

57.8%

1.08

0.00

1.08

7

34.7

6

Justin Jackson

North Carolina

6

34.5

19.5

5.2

3.7

2.0

0.5

2.0

1.5

54.7%

1.00

0.00

1.00

8

29.8

8

Derrick Walton Jr

Michigan

3

37.3

18.7

5.7

8.3

1.7

0.3

1.7

2.7

65.1%

0.99

0.00

0.99

9

24.6

13

Nigel Williams-Goss

Gonzaga

6

37.2

16.7

7.3

4.3

2.3

0.3

2.3

2.2

44.4%

0.86

0.00

0.86

10

42.9

5

Frank Mason

Kansas

4

35.5

22.3

4.5

6.0

1.5

0.0

1.5

1.8

62.7%

Kennedy Meeks is undoubtedly the MOP, looking at the tourney as a whole. Tyler Dorsey and Sindarius Thornwell were the top players who didn’t win it all.

As it is – have fun with the spreadsheet if you are so inclined. All the raw player data is there, per game and compiled – if you want to create something yourself. You can sort to your heart’s content, looking at favorite teams or players. You can even look at the very worst players of the tourney if you are more of a Debbie Downer. It’s all there, 694 players and 1295 individual player games. Enjoy.

It’s been a crazy week. A storm earlier in the week took out our internet, right before I went on a camping trip with my oldest son. Got back home late last night – still no internet. I didn’t get an article pre-written, & I’m jumping through some last minute hoops to get this up before the Final Four games begin. In other words, I’m winging it – while hoping my spreadsheet will upload correctly. Here it is – cross your fingers:

Yes, I know, there is a ton to digest there – let me help sort it out a little.

Why are all the past NCAA players included?

Honestly, because I can – & no one else would do it. Trying to add some perspective on the possible impact of the players left in the tourney by offering the ratings of the past great (or not so great) champions we remember.

First thing you will notice – Sindarius Thornwell currently sits #1. That is NOT a typo, that’s how incredibly he has preformed this season. This is in no way saying he will have a better NBA career than many of the past players he is listed in front of (he is a year – or two or three – older than many were during their great runs, & age is HUGE for NBA prospects) – but it is saying he has been a dominant player this season all things considered. If he leads South Carolina to the championship – it is about certain he will end up with the highest seasonal HnI rating of ANY champion in the last 22 years. That’s how good he has been – and it’s a complete shame that most “experts” have been in the dark on him pretty much the whole season. They’re woke now.

So, if you dig deeper into the spreadsheet, here are how the current & past players rank in specific rating skillsets:

Scoring Production

Player

Cla

Team

MP

Pts/40

TS%

Sco

Marreese Speights

FR

2007 Florida

189

28.4

0.670

12.1

Sindarius Thornwell

SR

South Carolina

1014

25.6

0.586

10.2

Richard Hamilton

JR

1999 Connecticut

1091

26.8

0.555

9.8

Morris Peterson

SR

2000 Michigan St.

1136

23.1

0.590

8.7

Zach Collins

FR

Gonzaga

636

23.1

0.696

8.5

Tony Delk

SR

1996 Kentucky

947

27.0

0.616

8.4

Jahlil Okafor

FR

2015 Duke

1143

23.0

0.635

8.4

If we ignore Speights & his limited minutes as a frosh – Sindarius is the most impactful scorer on the list. Remember, he puts up that production on an elite defensive team with an average pace at best. His production in that respect looks even more impressive than at first glance. Putting him in a lineup of average past champ players would, in theory, improve that lineup by 10.2 points per 70 possessions just as a result of his scoring impact (the Sco column).

2pt Production

Player

Cla

Team

MP

2ptFG/40

2pt%

2pt

Marreese Speights

FR

2007 Florida

189

12.1

67.06%

14.6

Jahlil Okafor

FR

2015 Duke

1143

9.8

66.43%

12.3

Nazr Mohammed

JR

1998 Kentucky

819

9.3

59.75%

8.9

Emeka Okafor

JR

2004 Connecticut

1166

9.0

59.86%

8.1

Joakim Noah

SO

2006 Florida

972

8.3

62.93%

8.1

Przemek Karnowski

SR

Gonzaga

848

9.0

60.25%

7.8

Sean May

JR

2005 UNC

992

9.2

57.14%

7.0

Zach Collins

FR

Gonzaga

636

7.3

67.84%

6.8

Two Zags rank in the top 8 here, which demonstrates the dominance they often have over opponents in the lane.

3pt Production

Player

Cla

Team

MP

3ptFG/40

3pt%

3pt

Lee Humphrey

JR

2006 Florida

1138

4.0

46.12%

7.7

Jason Williams

SO

2001 Duke

1239

4.3

42.72%

6.9

Lee Humphrey

SR

2007 Florida

1215

3.7

45.93%

6.6

Rashad Anderson

SO

2004 Connecticut

864

4.0

41.04%

6.5

Tony Delk

SR

1996 Kentucky

947

3.9

44.29%

6.5

Cameron Mills

SR

1998 Kentucky

427

3.6

43.68%

6.3

Morris Peterson

SR

2000 Michigan St.

1136

3.0

42.50%

5.6

Shane Battier

SR

2001 Duke

1364

3.6

41.89%

5.3

Kris Jenkins

JR

2016 Villanova

1134

3.5

38.61%

5.0

Kyle Wiltjer

FR

2012 Kentucky

462

3.0

43.21%

4.9

Ben Gordon

JR

2004 Connecticut

1346

3.1

43.33%

4.8

Rashad McCants

JR

2005 UNC

856

3.3

42.26%

4.7

Rakym Felder

FR

South Carolina

519

2.6

43.59%

4.4

Had to dig a little deeper to get to a current guy here.

Free Throw Production

Player

Cla

Team

MP

FT/40

FT%

FT

Sindarius Thornwell

SR

South Carolina

1014

8.3

83.00%

6.2

Tyler Hansbrough

SR

2009 UNC

1029

9.7

84.12%

6.1

Russ Smith

JR

2013 Louisville

1211

7.3

80.43%

5.3

Kemba Walker

JR

2011 Connecticut

1543

6.7

81.90%

4.6

Richard Hamilton

JR

1999 Connecticut

1091

6.2

83.33%

4.2

Chris Silva

SO

South Carolina

744

6.8

75.15%

4.1

Where Sindarius does much of his damage – at the line. His teammate Chris Silva is no slouch himself – South Carolina must generate points by getting to the line tooffset their general lack of team shooting.

Rebound Rating

Player

Cla

Team

MP

Rb/40

Reb

Brian Zoubek

SR

2010 Duke

746

16.6

8.2

Marreese Speights

FR

2007 Florida

189

18.0

7.6

Sean May

JR

2005 UNC

992

16.0

5.6

Kennedy Meeks

SR

North Carolina

921

15.4

5.3

Cole Aldrich

FR

2008 Kansas

330

14.4

5.0

Emeka Okafor

JR

2004 Connecticut

1166

14.2

4.9

Tony Bradley

FR

North Carolina

525

13.9

4.8

This is where North Carolina must continue to dominate to have a chance to claim that championship.

Ball Handling & Passing

Player

Cla

Team

MP

Ast/40

TO/40

BH

Ty Lawson

JR

2009 UNC

1048

8.8

2.5

7.0

Anthony Epps

JR

1996 Kentucky

818

8.6

2.6

6.8

Steve Blake

JR

2002 Maryland

1153

9.9

4.0

6.5

Taliek Brown

SR

2004 Connecticut

1188

8.5

3.2

6.4

Marcus Williams

FR

2004 Connecticut

226

12.2

6.7

6.4

Mateen Cleaves

SR

2000 Michigan St.

820

8.7

4.6

5.8

Tyus Jones

FR

2015 Duke

1322

6.6

2.3

5.3

Peyton Siva

SR

2013 Louisville

1247

7.3

3.4

5.1

Jon Scheyer

SR

2010 Duke

1470

5.3

1.8

4.5

Raymond Felton

JR

2005 UNC

1142

8.7

4.5

4.5

Chris Duhon

FR

2001 Duke

1086

6.4

2.2

4.4

Theo Pinson

JR

North Carolina

442

6.3

2.6

3.9

There is no great “true” pass first point guard in this Final 4.

Defensive Stops

Player

Cla

Team

MP

Stl/40

Blk/40

PF/40

Anthony Davis

FR

2012 Kentucky

1281

1.7

5.8

2.4

Emeka Okafor

JR

2004 Connecticut

1166

1.2

5.0

2.9

Joakim Noah

SO

2006 Florida

972

1.8

3.9

3.5

Gorgui Dieng

JR

2013 Louisville

1026

1.7

3.2

3.3

Shane Battier

SR

2001 Duke

1364

2.4

2.6

2.3

Nazr Mohammed

JR

1998 Kentucky

819

1.8

3.7

4.4

Jeremy McNeil

JR

2003 Syracuse

657

0.5

6.1

6.8

E.J. Harrison

SR

1999 Connecticut

210

3.4

0.6

3.4

Jordan Bell

JR

Oregon

1089

1.8

3.0

2.5

Amida Brimah

FR

2014 Connecticut

649

0.2

5.7

7.1

Mario Chalmers

JR

2008 Kansas

1170

3.3

0.8

3.4

Cole Aldrich

FR

2008 Kansas

330

1.3

4.1

5.8

Sindarius Thornwell

SR

South Carolina

1014

2.6

1.1

2.7

Jordan Bell creates havoc as a rim protector and defender. Coach Martin has said often that his team’s elite defense starts with Sindarius Thornwell – and his defensive stops production bears that out.

“_____ is the the NCAA top 30 teams as ______ was to the NBA”

Included in the spreadsheet, which was no small undertaking, are historic NBA player comps. I took every rotation guy in this Final 4, & ran his rating skillset breakdowns in 18 categories to the average of the Top 30 NCAA teams. I then compared those results to EVERY NBA player season (> 500 minutes) since 1980. That’s almost half a million combinations. I included the top 10 historic NBA comps for every rotation guy on page 4 of the worksheet, with the top comp season on the main sheet 1.

Note that Superstar players or very poor players (relative to their peers obviously) will have lower Comp%’s – where 100% would be a perfect comp match they very well may be low 80s to even mid 70s. Much of the over 110 thousand player seasons were mediocre at best – so players WAY above or below that mediocre threshold just won’t have nearly as many “close” comps.

All that being said – while Sindarius Thornwell isn’t exactly a perfect match for Kevin Durant (his top 3 matches are prime KD seasons with OKC), his relative IMPACT he has on his team would be more similar to what KD had on OKC than any other historic NBA player had on theirs. Just looking at the strength of Sindarius’ comp list screams college superstar, even if he isn’t incredibly similar to any single past NBA player (78.4% comp% down to 75% at #10):

NBA Comp

Year

Age

Tm

Kevin Durant

2014

25

OKC

Kevin Durant

2013

24

OKC

Kevin Durant

2015

26

OKC

Kevin Love

2014

25

MIN

LeBron James

2009

24

CLE

Kawhi Leonard

2016

24

SAS

Tracy McGrady

2003

23

ORL

Kevin Durant

2016

27

OKC

Paul Pierce

2003

25

BOS

Scottie Pippen*

1995

29

CHI

Nigel Williams-Goss, the second best player left in this tourney:

Anfernee Hardaway

1996

24

ORL

Terrell Brandon

1996

25

CLE

LeBron James

2005

20

CLE

Terrell Brandon

1997

26

CLE

Terrell Brandon

1995

24

CLE

Rod Strickland

1995

28

POR

Jason Kidd

2003

29

NJN

Gary Payton*

2000

31

SEA

Clyde Drexler*

1992

29

POR

Tim Hardaway

1991

24

GSW

Now, Nigel is much more similar to the players on his list, 90.7 comp% down to 86.9%

Here’s the top NBA comp for every rotation guy you’ll see later today. I listed the players by mpg for their team, & included the HnI for both them (college HnI, 100 D1 average) & their comp (NBA HnI, 100 NBA average). All the other pertinent stats are in the spreadsheet if you so desire to see more).

HnI

Player

Cla

Team

Top NBA Comp

Year

Age

Tm

HnI

Comp%

168.5

Nigel Williams-Goss

JR

Gonzaga

Anfernee Hardaway

1996

24

ORL

137

90.7%

128.1

Josh Perkins

SO

Gonzaga

Matt Maloney

1997

25

HOU

96

89.5%

130.2

Jordan Mathews

SR

Gonzaga

J.R. Smith

2016

30

CLE

99

93.0%

138.9

Johnathan Williams

JR

Gonzaga

Emeka Okafor

2008

25

CHA

105

94.1%

121.1

Silas Melson

JR

Gonzaga

Jared Dudley

2014

28

LAC

84

95.2%

151.4

Przemek Karnowski

SR

Gonzaga

Shaquille O’Neal*

2007

34

MIA

119

87.6%

158.4

Zach Collins

FR

Gonzaga

Hassan Whiteside

2015

25

MIA

129

84.8%

135.3

Killian Tillie

FR

Gonzaga

Derrick Coleman

2003

35

PHI

101

89.5%

150.0

Justin Jackson

JR

North Carolina

Ray Allen

2005

29

SEA

122

89.8%

144.1

Joel Berry

JR

North Carolina

Tim Hardaway

2001

34

MIA

112

91.4%

163.8

Kennedy Meeks

SR

North Carolina

Al Jefferson

2008

23

MIN

126

87.2%

128.8

Theo Pinson

JR

North Carolina

Haywoode Workman

1999

33

MIL

100

91.1%

148.0

Isaiah Hicks

SR

North Carolina

Rik Smits

1995

28

IND

119

90.9%

113.1

Nate Britt

SR

North Carolina

Ronnie Price

2015

31

LAL

83

92.4%

150.9

Tony Bradley

FR

North Carolina

Enes Kanter

2016

23

OKC

119

86.6%

138.2

Luke Maye

SO

North Carolina

Jared Sullinger

2014

21

BOS

105

89.8%

83.9

Seventh Woods

FR

North Carolina

Del Beshore

1980

23

CHI

65

79.4%

126.4

Dylan Ennis

SR

Oregon

Metta World Peace

2010

30

LAL

98

94.7%

127.6

Tyler Dorsey

SO

Oregon

Gerald Green

2014

28

PHO

104

94.3%

157.0

Jordan Bell

JR

Oregon

Andrew Bynum

2008

20

LAL

125

89.8%

122.9

Payton Pritchard

FR

Oregon

Chris Duhon

2005

22

CHI

94

94.8%

153.4

Dillon Brooks

JR

Oregon

Kyrie Irving

2013

20

CLE

125

88.7%

108.7

Casey Benson

JR

Oregon

DeShawn Stevenson

2009

27

WAS

75

93.4%

102.1

Kavell Bigby-Williams

JR

Oregon

Jamaal Magloire

2007

28

POR

88

86.7%

88.9

Keith Smith

FR

Oregon

Boris Diaw

2005

22

ATL

80

89.1%

210.1

Sindarius Thornwell

SR

South Carolina

Kevin Durant

2014

25

OKC

162

78.4%

119.4

Duane Notice

SR

South Carolina

Daniel Gibson

2008

21

CLE

91

93.7%

136.7

PJ Dozier

SO

South Carolina

Kobe Bryant

2015

36

LAL

109

87.1%

107.9

Maik Kotsar

FR

South Carolina

Olden Polynice

2001

36

UTA

85

91.5%

140.8

Chris Silva

SO

South Carolina

Alonzo Mourning*

1998

27

MIA

130

81.7%

83.3

Hassani Gravett

SO

South Carolina

Dante Exum

2015

19

UTA

73

89.7%

104.9

Justin McKie

SR

South Carolina

Anthony Peeler

2005

35

WAS

79

93.5%

116.5

Rakym Felder

FR

South Carolina

Greg Sutton

1996

28

PHI

85

89.0%

58.8

Sedee Keita

FR

South Carolina

Ron Cavenall

1985

25

NYK

58

84.4%

The Predictions:

On sheet #2 of the spreadsheet I included the general team ratings of the past 21 NCAA champs with the current Final 4 teams, as well as the optimized player minutes ratings of the current Final 4. Using the optimized ratings (accounting for injured players, more star player PT due to more tv timeouts, & tighter “going for it all” rotations) – here’s the predicted final scores:

Gonzaga 70.2, South Carolina 67.3

North Carolina 79.5, Oregon 73.5

If you enjoyed my very unique take on the Final 4 players – PLEASE spread the word (Twitter, Reddit, etc.). I better post this while I still have an internet window. Thanks!

OK, ALL the gory player rating details are in the following spreadsheet, with all the player rating & ranking breakdowns. Be aware, I included a sheet that contains EVERY player comp % for every player > 100 minutes in the Sweet 16 with every NBA player currently > 500 minutes on the season. [3/24 EDIT: those comps have already been tweaked & improved, so the info in the spreadsheet already isn’t the best version. Happens sometimes when I rush. Oh well. Future comps will be the improved version] That’s 52,772 lines of player comps. I included all the info for those who may find it fun to find the very worst comps – or for those who want to see ANY possible combination of Sweet 16 & NBA player.

The All Sweet 16 Teams. Yes, MANY different “teams”.

OK, here come a multitude of unconventional ways to look at the best players left in this tourney – by exploring various All Sweet 16 lineups. I didn’t just pick the top 5 guys for every lineup (all you have to do is sort the spreadsheet for that) – I put together the top 5 guys for every category who ALSO would be a viable lineup across the entire rating spectrum. I made sure EVERY lineup was BETTER than Sweet 16 average in ALL these rating subsets: 2pt production, 3pt production, FT production, rebounding, assists, steals, blocks, & ball handling (assists & turnovers).

Those rules being set, here’s the All Sweet 16 teams:

The Overall All Sweet 16 Teams:

HnI

1st Team

Cla

Team

Mn/g

Pt/g

Rb/g

A/g

S/g

B/g

T/g

PF/g

TS%

207

Sindarius Thornwell

SR

South Carolina

33.7

21.4

7.3

2.9

2.2

0.9

2.4

2.3

0.580

190

Ethan Happ

SO

Wisconsin

27.7

13.8

9.1

2.8

1.8

1.2

2.2

2.7

0.569

174

Caleb Swanigan

SO

Purdue

32.5

18.5

12.6

3.0

0.4

0.8

3.3

2.8

0.613

168

Frank Mason

SR

Kansas

36.1

20.8

4.1

5.2

1.3

0.1

2.4

2.1

0.613

169

Nigel Williams-Goss

JR

Gonzaga

32.3

16.7

5.8

4.7

1.7

0.0

2.1

1.5

0.608

HnI

2nd

Cla

Team

Mn/g

Pt/g

Rb/g

A/g

S/g

B/g

T/g

PF/g

TS%

169

Johnathan Motley

JR

Baylor

30.4

17.3

9.9

2.4

0.3

1.1

2.9

3.1

0.566

164

Kennedy Meeks

SR

North Carolina

23.9

12.7

9.1

1.1

0.9

1.1

1.3

2.3

0.558

157

Derrick Walton

SR

Michigan

34.8

15.4

4.8

4.9

1.1

0.0

1.7

1.7

0.612

157

Lonzo Ball

FR

UCLA

35.0

14.7

6.1

7.6

1.9

0.7

2.4

1.8

0.675

156

Jevon Carter

JR

West Virginia

31.8

13.3

4.9

3.8

2.5

0.2

1.8

2.5

0.570

HnI

3rd

Cla

Team

Mn/g

Pt/g

Rb/g

A/g

S/g

B/g

T/g

PF/g

TS%

159

Zach Collins

FR

Gonzaga

17.3

10.3

5.7

0.4

0.5

1.7

1.4

2.5

0.698

155

Josh Jackson

FR

Kansas

30.6

16.6

7.1

2.9

1.6

1.1

2.7

3.0

0.558

155

Dillon Brooks

JR

Oregon

24.4

16.4

3.1

2.7

1.1

0.5

2.0

2.7

0.597

154

De’Aaron Fox

FR

Kentucky

29.4

16.1

4.0

4.6

1.4

0.2

2.5

2.5

0.537

145

Joel Berry

JR

North Carolina

29.9

14.4

3.1

3.7

1.4

0.1

1.8

2.2

0.580

HnI

4th

Cla

Team

Mn/g

Pt/g

Rb/g

A/g

S/g

B/g

T/g

PF/g

TS%

156

Lauri Markkanen

FR

Arizona

30.6

15.8

7.2

0.9

0.4

0.5

1.1

2.0

0.633

154

Allonzo Trier

SO

Arizona

31.6

17.1

5.1

2.6

0.4

0.1

1.8

1.7

0.614

153

Jordan Bell

JR

Oregon

28.4

10.8

8.3

1.8

1.3

2.1

1.8

1.8

0.646

150

Malik Monk

FR

Kentucky

32.1

20.0

2.5

2.4

1.0

0.4

2.0

1.8

0.582

143

Chris Chiozza

JR

Florida

21.8

7.1

3.3

3.7

1.3

0.0

1.5

2.1

0.541

HnI

5th

Cla

Team

Mn/g

Pt/g

Rb/g

A/g

S/g

B/g

T/g

PF/g

TS%

151

Tony Bradley

FR

North Carolina

15.0

7.5

5.3

0.6

0.3

0.6

0.6

1.8

0.593

151

Przemek Karnowski

SR

Gonzaga

22.8

12.4

5.9

1.9

0.4

1.0

1.7

2.0

0.598

149

Justin Jackson

JR

North Carolina

31.5

18.1

4.7

2.8

0.8

0.2

1.7

1.4

0.558

141

Tarik Phillip

SR

West Virginia

24.3

9.6

2.9

3.1

1.8

0.3

1.6

1.9

0.539

140

KeVaughn Allen

SO

Florida

28.4

13.4

2.5

1.5

1.3

0.2

1.3

1.5

0.583

HnI

Honorable Mention

Cla

Team

Mn/g

Pt/g

Rb/g

A/g

S/g

B/g

T/g

PF/g

TS%

149

Isaiah Hicks

SR

North Carolina

23.4

12.4

5.7

1.4

0.4

0.7

1.7

3.0

0.640

148

Edrice Adebayo

FR

Kentucky

29.8

13.3

8.1

0.7

0.7

1.5

1.7

2.7

0.620

147

TJ Leaf

FR

UCLA

29.8

16.2

8.2

2.5

0.6

1.1

1.4

2.6

0.656

145

Devin Robinson

JR

Florida

26.4

11.4

6.3

0.6

0.9

0.8

1.1

2.2

0.575

142

Kevarrius Hayes

SO

Florida

17.4

6.1

4.3

0.2

0.6

1.6

0.7

2.4

0.624

142

Canyon Barry

SR

Florida

21.5

11.8

2.9

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.9

1.1

0.565

142

Isaac Haas

JR

Purdue

19.5

12.6

5.1

0.6

0.3

0.8

2.2

2.1

0.619

142

Vince Edwards

JR

Purdue

28.6

12.7

5.0

3.2

0.6

0.5

1.7

1.8

0.591

142

Nigel Hayes

SR

Wisconsin

32.3

13.8

6.6

2.7

0.8

0.4

1.7

1.8

0.504

Breakdown by team:

North Carolina: 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 2 5ths, 1 honorable mention

Florida: 1 4th, 1 5th, 3 honorable mentions

Gonzaga: 1 1st, 1 3rd, 1 5th

Purdue: 1 1st, 2 honorable mentions

Kentucky: 1 3rd, 1 4th, 1 honorable mention

Kansas: 1 1st, 1 3rd

Wisconsin: 1 1st, 1 honorable mention

West Virginia: 1 2nd, 1 5th

Oregon: 1 3rd, 1 4th

UCLA: 1 2nd, 1 honorable mention

Arizona: 2 4ths

South Carolina: 1 1st

Baylor: 1 2nd

Michigan: 1 2nd

Butler & Xavier did not have a player make the list.

All Scoring Rating lineup:

Player

Cla

Team

Mn/g

Pt/g

Rb/g

A/g

S/g

B/g

T/g

PF/g

TS%

Sindarius Thornwell

SR

South Carolina

33.7

21.4

7.3

2.9

2.2

0.9

2.4

2.3

0.580

Zach Collins

FR

Gonzaga

17.3

10.3

5.7

0.4

0.5

1.7

1.4

2.5

0.698

Dillon Brooks

JR

Oregon

24.4

16.4

3.1

2.7

1.1

0.5

2.0

2.7

0.597

Frank Mason

SR

Kansas

36.1

20.8

4.1

5.2

1.3

0.1

2.4

2.1

0.613

Nigel Williams-Goss

JR

Gonzaga

32.3

16.7

5.8

4.7

1.7

0.0

2.1

1.5

0.608

All 2pt Production Lineup:

Player

Cla

Team

Mn/g

Pt/g

Rb/g

A/g

S/g

B/g

T/g

PF/g

TS%

Ethan Happ

SO

Wisconsin

27.7

13.8

9.1

2.8

1.8

1.2

2.2

2.7

0.569

Isaac Haas

JR

Purdue

19.5

12.6

5.1

0.6

0.3

0.8

2.2

2.1

0.619

Dillon Brooks

JR

Oregon

24.4

16.4

3.1

2.7

1.1

0.5

2.0

2.7

0.597

Sindarius Thornwell

SR

South Carolina

33.7

21.4

7.3

2.9

2.2

0.9

2.4

2.3

0.580

Lonzo Ball

FR

UCLA

35.0

14.7

6.1

7.6

1.9

0.7

2.4

1.8

0.675

All Free Throw Production Lineup:

Player

Cla

Team

Mn/g

Pt/g

Rb/g

A/g

S/g

B/g

T/g

PF/g

TS%

Sindarius Thornwell

SR

South Carolina

33.7

21.4

7.3

2.9

2.2

0.9

2.4

2.3

0.580

Allonzo Trier

SO

Arizona

31.6

17.1

5.1

2.6

0.4

0.1

1.8

1.7

0.614

Canyon Barry

SR

Florida

21.5

11.8

2.9

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.9

1.1

0.565

Caleb Swanigan

SO

Purdue

32.5

18.5

12.6

3.0

0.4

0.8

3.3

2.8

0.613

Nigel Williams-Goss

JR

Gonzaga

32.3

16.7

5.8

4.7

1.7

0.0

2.1

1.5

0.608

All 3pt Production Lineup:

Player

Cla

Team

Mn/g

Pt/g

Rb/g

A/g

S/g

B/g

T/g

PF/g

TS%

Derrick Walton

SR

Michigan

34.8

15.4

4.8

4.9

1.1

0.0

1.7

1.7

0.612

Lauri Markkanen

FR

Arizona

30.6

15.8

7.2

0.9

0.4

0.5

1.1

2.0

0.633

Dillon Brooks

JR

Oregon

24.4

16.4

3.1

2.7

1.1

0.5

2.0

2.7

0.597

Sindarius Thornwell

SR

South Carolina

33.7

21.4

7.3

2.9

2.2

0.9

2.4

2.3

0.580

Derek Willis

SR

Kentucky

21.9

7.0

5.3

0.8

0.7

1.1

0.7

1.9

0.620

All Rebounding Lineup:

Player

Cla

Team

Mn/g

Pt/g

Rb/g

A/g

S/g

B/g

T/g

PF/g

TS%

Kennedy Meeks

SR

North Carolina

23.9

12.7

9.1

1.1

0.9

1.1

1.3

2.3

0.558

Caleb Swanigan

SO

Purdue

32.5

18.5

12.6

3.0

0.4

0.8

3.3

2.8

0.613

Lauri Markkanen

FR

Arizona

30.6

15.8

7.2

0.9

0.4

0.5

1.1

2.0

0.633

Sindarius Thornwell

SR

South Carolina

33.7

21.4

7.3

2.9

2.2

0.9

2.4

2.3

0.580

Chris Chiozza

JR

Florida

21.8

7.1

3.3

3.7

1.3

0.0

1.5

2.1

0.541

All Handles/Passing lineup:

Player

Cla

Team

Mn/g

Pt/g

Rb/g

A/g

S/g

B/g

T/g

PF/g

TS%

Tyler Lewis

SR

Butler

21.8

6.5

1.4

4.0

0.6

0.0

1.0

1.7

0.636

Lonzo Ball

FR

UCLA

35.0

14.7

6.1

7.6

1.9

0.7

2.4

1.8

0.675

Parker Jackson-Cartwright

JR

Arizona

24.9

5.9

2.4

4.1

1.2

0.1

1.3

1.8

0.575

Ethan Happ

SO

Wisconsin

27.7

13.8

9.1

2.8

1.8

1.2

2.2

2.7

0.569

Sindarius Thornwell

SR

South Carolina

33.7

21.4

7.3

2.9

2.2

0.9

2.4

2.3

0.580

All Defensive Stops lineup:

Player

Cla

Team

Mn/g

Pt/g

Rb/g

A/g

S/g

B/g

T/g

PF/g

TS%

Sagaba Konate

FR

West Virginia

10.9

4.1

2.9

0.3

0.4

1.4

0.9

2.1

0.573

Ethan Happ

SO

Wisconsin

27.7

13.8

9.1

2.8

1.8

1.2

2.2

2.7

0.569

Sindarius Thornwell

SR

South Carolina

33.7

21.4

7.3

2.9

2.2

0.9

2.4

2.3

0.580

Jevon Carter

JR

West Virginia

31.8

13.3

4.9

3.8

2.5

0.2

1.8

2.5

0.570

Devonte’ Graham

JR

Kansas

35.2

13.3

3.2

4.3

1.6

0.2

1.8

1.6

0.588

Here’s something that needs to be noted about the greatness of Sindarius Thornwell – he is such an all-around great college player, than in order to make a lineup that excelled at any one skillset WHILE still being Sweet 16 above average across the board, he needed to be included. Not in one or two lineups – but in each & every one of them. I had no idea it would play out that way, but now his incredible overall rating makes even more sense to me.

Sweet 16 NBA Player Comps

[3/24 EDIT: I’m leaving this info, but I have already improved the comp modeling, which was giving too much disproportionate credit to scoring ratings & not enough toward the non scoring. If I had completed the comps a day earlier, I would have caught the error in weight. My bad.] I’d love to go into much greater details about the player comps in the spreadsheet, but I don’t nearly have the time and honestly have no clue where to start. Understand that these comps are based off 14 rating breakdowns, ratings adjusted for pace, SoS, team quality, etc. These Sweet 16 players ratings are relative to other Sweet 16 guys – thus I’m creating a “____ is to this Sweet 16 as ____ is to the NBA right now”.

These are statistical ratings (ABSOLUTELY NOT FUTURE NBA PROJECTIONS) – so it is very feasible for a 6’4″ NCAA guard who doesn’t hit many threes or get many assists, & rebounds well may find his best stat comp being a weaker rebounding NBA power forward. Take note of the Comp%, anything heading down into the mid 80s or lower starts matching players who are only really partly similar. I’m doing this to help people who are very familiar with NBA players understand what type of statistical impact to expect from some of these college guys they may not be as familiar with.

Due to lack of time & space, I will note three big name guys here for fun, & allow you to sort through the spreadsheet for any other comps you may want to find.

First, Lonzo Ball, like many “unique” college players (see Ethan Happ), has NO good comps (all below 85%). I believe this is due to his low FT rate (low frequency) with just a slightly above average overall scoring production, but with strong efficiencies & high assist rate. His comps look quite meh (no stars), he just honestly needed to score quite a bit more (even if there was some efficiency drop) to see star NBA point guard comps [3/24 Edit: his new comps are Rubio at 84.1%, Chris Paul at 82.9%, JJ Barea at 82.3%, Jeff Teague at 81.5%, then Sergio listed below at 81.2%]:

Sergio Rodriguez

PG

30

PHI

85.0%

Yogi Ferrell

PG

23

DAL

82.4%

Ricky Rubio

PG

26

MIN

82.3%

Brandon Jennings

PG

27

WAS

82.2%

His worst comp in the NBA is Anthony Davis, at 37%.

The guy I’ve been telling everyone for a while is the best player in all of college basketball (and it’s almost not close), Sindarius Thornwell, has the following comps [3/24 Update: Kawhi still #1 comp at 82.9%, Cousins 78.6%, Durant 77.9%, Butler 75.8%, Hayward 75.0%]:

Kawhi Leonard

SF

25

SAS

85.6%

DeMarcus Cousins

C

26

NOP

80.7%

Gordon Hayward

SF

26

UTA

79.8%

Jimmy Butler

SF

27

CHI

79.6%

Kevin Durant

SF

28

GSW

77.7%

His comp% are also not strong, although Kawhi does stand out from all others – and is the best comp (highest comp%) from any player in this tourney to any NBA superstar (of the Westbrooks, Hardens, LeBrons, Kawhis, Durants, Stephs, Isaiahs, etc). Sindarius is above to WAY above average compared to the average Sweet 16 player in EVERY rating breakdown. That makes it hard to find a good comp, & the best ones you do find will be very good. His worst NBA comp is JR Smith at 36.5%

If we threw out the big disparity in rebounding, Fox & Blake Griffin would be great comps. Even including the rebounding, Blake is still the top comp. Blake’s best comp in this tourney is actually Nigel Hayes at 88.2%.

Probably the best comp to an NBA star is Frank Mason to Mike Conley, at 91%. Or, maybe Malik Monk to Bradley Beal at 90.5 [3/24 Edit: these last three comps I mention are still true, just with slightly different %’s].

That being said, just have fun with the spreadsheet if you are so inclined…

I am going to leave this for now, I have a baseball game to coach. I will end with the general team ratings, and optimized lineup team ratings (as described in my tourney write up)

Rating

Rank

Team

Optimized

Rank

Diff

136.4

2

North Carolina

144.1

1

7.7

138.8

1

Gonzaga

143.5

2

4.8

135.8

3

West Virginia

139.4

3

3.6

135.3

4

Kentucky

139.2

4

3.9

135.1

5

Kansas

138.6

5

3.6

133.6

6

Florida

137.4

6

3.8

121.9

15

South Carolina

136.4

7

14.6

128.9

11

Wisconsin

136.1

8

7.2

128.4

12

Arizona

135.9

9

7.6

130.8

7

Purdue

134.9

10

4.0

129.9

10

Baylor

134.2

11

4.3

130.1

9

UCLA

133.7

12

3.6

126.7

13

Michigan

132.1

13

5.4

130.2

8

Oregon

131.7

14

1.5

125.1

14

Butler

129.2

15

4.1

121.1

16

Xavier

120.4

16

-0.7

The low difference between optimized and seasonal ratings for Oregon and Xavier are due to missing key players (Boucher & Sumner). South Carolina has Sindarius playing big minutes, they are much stronger right (as long as he stays out of any foul trouble) now than their seasonal rating (when Sindarius missed games) would suggest.

Using the optimized lineup data above, working with the Vegas O/U (so I don’t have to try to compute predicted game pace, that’s a bit of a pain in the ass), here’s the predicted outcomes of all the Sweet 16 games.

Predictions:

Michigan 74.1, Oregon 73.9

Gonzaga 76.1, West Virginia 73.9

Kansas 78.8, Purdue 76.7

Arizona 76.6, Xavier 67.9

North Carolina 80.9, Butler 72.6

South Carolina 68.3, Baylor 67.2

Kentucky 84.4, UCLA 81.1

Florida 66.1, Wisconsin 65.4

I hope you enjoyed my pu pu platter of information & data, please hit me up on twitter & spread the word if you did indeed find the info enlighting/interesting/unique/etc. Just trying to offer approaches to learning about players analytically – offering something that just can’t be found anywhere else.