Long Island unemployment rate holds at 7.8 pct

Nassau County’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.3 percent, among the lowest in the state. Suffolk’s rate declined 0.1 percent to 8.2 percent, still well below New York state’s 9.2 percent unemployment rate and national rate of 8.8 percent.

“It’s good news,” said Shital Patel, a labor market analyst for Long Island at the New York State Department of Labor. “Compared to the rest of the state, the nation and New York City, Long Island is doing pretty well.”

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Long Island performed better than the nine other regions in which the Department of Labor divides the state, including New York City, the Hudson Valley, the Finger Lakes and the Capital region.

“If you can believe the numbers, it’s pretty good,” said Irwin Kellner, chief economist for MarketWatch. “If you can believe these numbers, they’re not bad.”

Long Island Association Chief Economist Pearl Kamer said the rate was relatively good news, but only one piece of information.

“We are fairly low compared to the state, the nation and New York City,” Kamer said. “How low is our rate? We’re one of the lowest in New York State. I look at these unemployment rates, but they’re only one indicator.”

Other Long Island employment and unemployment data showed some possible signs of weakness, including a shrinking workforce.

The total Long Island labor force declined to 1.448 million from 1.452 million a year ago, as both the number of employed and unemployed dropped.

The number of employed Long Islanders dipped to 1.335 million from 1.338 million, while the number of unemployed fell to 112,700 from 113,900.

“The labor force might decline for several reasons,” Patel said. “Discouraged workers, people moving out of the area or people retiring. There isn’t a way of knowing which factor is driving down the labor force.”

Kamer said the workforce dwindled most likely because some workers gave up, dropping out of the count.

“The labor force shrank,” Kamer said. “You have to assume there are some discouraged workers out there. They’re no longer counted as unemployed, if they haven’t looked for a job in the last month.”

Kellner said the workforce overall, however, has been growing nationwide as more people who had given up seek and sometimes find employment.

“Now the workforce is going up at the national level, because people are becoming more optimistic about jobs being available for them,” he said. “You can’t look at this in a vacuum. You have to look at it in the light of the other numbers.”

Kamer said the unemployment numbers miss other ways of measuring the strength of the economy.

“This does not include discouraged workers, those working part-time involuntarily, because employees cut their hours,” she said. “And it doesn’t include the underemployed not fully utilizing their skills. The unemployment rate and the underemployment rate is probably closer to 12 percent. That’s a truer measure of economic hardship in the labor market.”

The state released the regional unemployment data just days after releasing information regarding the number of jobs located in the region, another gauge of the condition of the local economy.

Long Island unemployment measures the percent of Long Island residents seeking, but not finding, work. The jobs numbers the state released earlier track the number of jobs that exist in the region.

“It’s the measure of jobs physically located on Long Island,” Patel said. “It’s showing whether the region is adding or losing jobs.”

Long Island added 17,600 jobs year over year as of January, growing the job count by 1.5 percent, according to the state. The private sector added 20,300 jobs, while government lost 2,700 jobs, according to government estimates.

“We have one of the lowest unemployment rates in the state. And we know from the jobs report, jobs are increasing,” Kamer said. “Therefore Long Island like the nation is in economic recovery.”

But she said it’s still too early to call this a full recovery, with the unemployment rate flat and other numbers raising concerns.

“Keep in mind that these are only estimates, subject to revision when we have more definitive, detailed data,” she said. “Therefore you have to look at them with some degree of skepticism.”

2 comments

Imagine, we’re 4 years into this recession and the unemployment rate is 12%. Gas is now 3.89 and higher so we better brace for that unemployment rate to go higher through the spring/summer.
By Sept/Oct it’s a bet the Big “O” will release some gas/oil from the Country’s petroleum reserves so he gets re=elected by the ignorant masses getting gov’t checks.

Much has been said about the “occupy” movement and yet, the next generation of American workers remain unnamed, undefined and uncharacterized. The American Dream remains as elusive to them as they are to it. Long Island Pulse Magazine’s March 2012 issue features an insightful essay that gets inside the narrative of the topic and gives a name to the nameless—GENERATION iNVISIBLE.