Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Continues

November home prices grew by 5.60 percent year-over-year on a seasonally adjusted basis according to Case-Shiller’s reading on National Home Prices. National average home prices rose 0.80 percent from October to November. Case-Shiller’s 20-City home price index revealed that the West and Mountain regions continue to hold the top three growth rates for home prices. Seattle posted a seasonally adjusted growth rate of 10.40 percent which was closely followed by Portland, Oregon’s year-over year average home price gain of 10.10 percent. Denver rounded out the top three home price growth rates included in the 20-CityiIndex with a year-over-year gain of 8.70 percent.

Top readings for month-to-month home price gains for the 20-City home price index were 0.20 percent for Seattle, Washington and Portland, Oregon. Denver, Colorado posted a month-to-month gain of 0.60 percent. Analysts said that home prices may be topping out in some cities; San Francisco, California was one of two cities posting lower home prices in November than for October. San Francisco home prices enjoyed rapid and stratospheric gains in recent years, but may have reached a threshold as fewer buyers can afford to purchase such high-priced homes.

Home Prices Approach Pre–Recession Levels

September’s national home price gains matched the pre-recession peak achieved in mid- 2006. While this is positive news, the 20-city index currently averages 7 percent below its prior peak level. It’s important to note that the 20-city index does not include Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and Houston, Texas metro areas, which have enjoyed significant growth in home prices. Home prices for cities included in the 20-city index remain about 7 percent lower than their previous peak, but are 40 percent higher than their lowest point in 2012.

David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the S&P Dow Jones Indices committee, said that November’s readings on home prices appear to indicate that home price gains have escaped the boom-or-bust cycles seen in the last dozen years or so.

Rising Mortgage Rates, Home Prices Present Obstacles for Buyers

While homeowners listing their homes for sale continue to enjoy appreciation home values, would-be home buyers are being sidelined by the effects of accelerating home price growth and higher mortgage rates, which are expected to continue increasing. As with San Francisco, more cities included in the Case-Shiller home price indices may see slowdowns in home price growth and home sales as affordable homes and home loans slip out of reach.