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Thursday, June 30, 2011

This edition of "Playing the Name Game" is the third time this season I'll be comparing nameless player's statistics and hopefully opening your eyes a little bit to how name recognition (and sometimes the lack thereof) can skew the realm of fantasy baseball ownership. This time I'm going to hold back all of the player's names until the end. NOTE: All stats quoted are from games played through June 29th, 2011.Let's jump right into the game by comparing the statistics (5x5 style) of a pair of outfielders in Scenario A:

Player A: .258 BA, 35 R, 10 HR, 51 RBI, 1 SB

Player B: .282 BA, 42 R, 11 HR, 53 RBI, 3 SB

Player A is owned in 67.5% of ESPN leagues and just 39% of Yahoo! leagues while Player B is owned in 100% of ESPN leagues and 84% of Yahoo! leagues. Are the 24 points in batting average, seven runs, two RBI and two stolen bases really worth such a discrepancy in ownership numbers? Here's a hint to guessing their names: neither player's home park would be consider hitter-friendly.Let's take a look at another pair of outfielders producing similar stats in Scenario B:

Player A: .262 BA, 51 R, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 5 SB

Player B: .264 BA, 25 R, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 3 SB

Again, pretty similar except for the large discrepancy in runs scored. How could that be explained? What if I told you Player A has had 279 at-bats while Player B has only had 148 at-bats? So, very similar numbers in half the at-bats, except for runs. Player A cost you an ADP of 104.1 while it's safe to say Player B was virtually undrafted. Now let's take a look at ownership numbers. Player A (99.6% E; 86% Y!); Player B (8% E; 5% Y!). Here's a hint to narrow down who they are: both players are on different contending teams in the NL Central.Enough with outfielder comparisons for the moment. Check out these pair of first basemen in Scenario C:

Player A: .173 BA, 20 R, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 0 SB

Player B: .217 BA, 17 R, 7 HR, 21 RBI, 0 SB

Ugh, why would anyone want to own either of these players with nearly half a season in the books? Fantasy owners got the memo about Player B and have avoided ownership to the tune of 0.4% in ESPN leagues and 1% of Yahoo! leagues. Quite the head-scratcher, though, that Player A is still owned in 83.3% of ESPN leagues and 79% of Yahoo! leagues. Oh right, Player A cost you an ADP of 37.3.How about a trio of first basemen with similar numbers up for comparison in Scenario D?:

Player A: .297 BA, 33 R, 6 HR, 34 RBI, 1 SB

Player B: .272 BA, 33 R, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 2 SB

Player C: .306 BA, 34 R, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 0 SB

Okay, now we're talking. These three are virtually the same player, right? Wrong. Ownership levels are all over the place. Player A is owned in 100% of ESPN leagues and 90% of Yahoo! leagues while Player B is owned in just 43.3% of ESPN leagues and 30% of Yahoo! leagues and lastly, Player C is 91.9% owned in ESPN leagues and 53% of Yahoo! leagues. Over the last 15 days, Player B has three home runs while the other two combined have none.Lastly, let's compare a pair of young catchers with a ton of potential but I wonder if that potential is another year away from being realized after looking at Scenario E:

Player A: .226 BA, 36 R, 11 HR, 36 RBI, 3 SB

Player B: .226 BA, 24 R, 11 HR, 35 RBI, 0 SB

Again, other than runs scored and a few bonus steals, these catchers are providing nearly the same level of offense to a fantasy team. Both players are 25 years old but the perception of each is quite different. Player A has only played 2/3rds of his games at catcher and the other 1/3rd at first base and owned in 100% of ESPN leagues and 95% of Yahoo! leagues while Player B has caught nearly the same amount of games but stuck in a perceived 60/40 split of time with a veteran catcher and owned in 50.9% of ESPN leagues and 52% of Yahoo! leagues.
Enough with the player comparisons already, right? Let's get to revealing the player's names after the break.

Angel Pagan was 4-for-6 with two doubles, four RBI, three runs scored and a stolen base in the New York Mets 16-9 victory over the Detroit Tigers. He had a streak of seven consecutive plate appearances reaching base snapped in the fourth inning.

My fantasy perspective: Pagan had a horrible April (.159 BA in 19 games), then missed 30 games due to an oblique injury before returning to action May 27th. Since returning, he has a .325 BA (.349 BABIP) with one homer, 18 RBI, 21 runs scored and nine stolen bases in 31 games. Those numbers are much more on par with his 2011 season and may prove to some it wasn't a fluke.

Pagan has 13 stolen bases in 50 games played. At that rate, he has the potential for another 20 stolen bases over the remaining 80ish games. Your chance to snag him off waivers may have passed in ESPN leagues, where his ownership rate is up to 87.4% of leagues but check out your Yahoo! league's waivers. Somehow, he's still just 50% owned.

My fantasy perspective: Be afraid. Be very afraid. Lee has been everything the Phillies hoped they were getting and more. Just check out his June 2011 numbers: 5 GS, 5-0, 42 IP, 21 H, 1 ER, 0.21 ERA. Pure insanity!

Overall, Lee is 9-5 with a 2.66 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and 119 strikeouts. That's four-category gold in a standard 5x5 league. A deeper look into his numbers show an xFIP of 2.75, a BABIP against of .290 and a LOB% of 78.6. These numbers all prove what Lee is doing is based in reality and not luck and are sustainable.

My fantasy perspective: Ramirez is starting to show signs of life. In his first 53 games of the season, he had just two home runs, 21 RBI and a .287 batting average. But over his last 19 games, he's homered six times with 16 RBI and a .295 batting average.

If you've held onto Ramirez through the first two-plus months of the season, your patience is starting to be rewarded. He's currently on pace for a .289/60/17/77/0 season, but with a few more hot streaks like the one he's been on and he could easily reach the 25 HR mark.

If you're an owner who's frustrated with owning him, now would be the time to approach the obvious Cubs' fan in your league (HINT: his team is always named the "Chicago Cubs") to see what player(s) he'd trade you in return for Ramirez.

Monday, June 27, 2011

This week, I have The Knurve To Say......Jhoulys Chacin will be a top 3 starting pitcher by the end of 2012.
I know this is relatively bold, but I’m a huge believer in this guy. He’s seemingly come from nowhere to become one of the most dominant pitchers in the NL, but I still get the feeling he’s underappreciated and it’s got me wondering.
His K/9 is slightly down from last year but so is his BB/9. I have chronicled on my blog how much of a premium elite starting pitching he has become. The increasing depth of starting pitching is going to force us to look for that extra something at a good value. I think even next year, Chacin will be available for a good price because of his relative obscurity.
But why do I believe he’s going to turn into an elite starting pitcher? For starters, the dude’s only 23 and he’s already doing solid work. His minor league numbers indicate he has the ability for fabulous control. That being said, I think this is his adjustment year. The slight dip in K/9 doesn’t worry me at all because it has been accompanied by a lower BB/9 and an above average HR/FB rate. The higher Home Run rate is to be expected in Coors, but there’s typically a correlation between walk rates and HR/FB rates. Chacin’s track record implies those rates will regress to a mean, and I expect his K rates to spike.
Chacin is well aware that he is most successful when he keeps the ball down. His high ground ball rates and career BABIP of .255 implies that he has the ability to show phenomenal control. If you are scared of Chacin’s high strand rate, don’t be. His ability to keep the ball down means fewer RBI’s and Home Runs alongside more double-plays. My recommendation: If you’re in a keeper league, try to go get him. If you’re at the bottom of your league, offer up an older starter or sell high on somebody. If you can get Chacin for Anibal Sanchez, Ian Kennedy, Alexi Ogando, Erik Bedard, Hiroki Kuroda and Wandy Rodriguez are just a few of the guys having good years that I’d trade for Chacin in a heartbeat.

Thoughts from the week that was:

I was a loser and stayed home to watch the White Sox-Nats game on Friday night. The ejection of temporary manager John McLaren was awesome, but I want to talk about Henry Rodriguez for a second. Chances are you've never heard of Rodriguez, but I’m going to say with utter confidence that he has the nastiest stuff in the Majors. I was absolutely shocked at what this guy was doing. He’s hitting 100 with his fastball and has a slider/sinker that is the most absurd thing I have ever seen in my entire life. There are no great videos showing his whole arsenal. But check out the location and speed of these fastballs when he was on the Athletics: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=11390201 And check out the pure filth of this wild pitch earlier this year: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=14609955. It’s no wonder he has an absurdly low ERA and high WHIP.

Speaking of McLaren's ejection, I was pissed after they overruled that call, for one reason, and one reason only. Armando Galarraga. Where was the home plate umpire when Jim Joyce clearly blew the call that cost him a perfect game? There’s no excuse for overruling that call Friday night. Sure, it was a bang-bang play, but to the wimpy rookie umpire, don’t poop your pants whenever someone questions you. Joe Torre needs to talk to his umpires about what can get overruled and what can’t. That was absolutely terrible.

I’m convinced the Diamondbacks are going to win the NL West going away. This team was one year away after their atrocious season last year, and now that they improved the bullpen and their young offense is a year older. Their starting pitching has been a performing a little over their heads (See: Joshua Collmenter and Ian Kennedy) but they have the highest offensive potential in that division and it’s not even close. Speaking of them, in case you haven’t seen Wily Mo Pena’s shtoinker Friday night… you’re welcome: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=16233223

I used to think the Kardashian’s were the dumbest, most annoying people ever. Then Jim Riggleman decided to stop managing the Nationals.

The report that came out where Logan Morrison told new manager Jack McKeon that he was going to go home and play with his Twitter and McKeon asked what kind of dog it was, made me laugh for about 20 minutes.

Given the power of the AL East, I am ready to declare Josh Beckett and James Shields two of the best pitchers in baseball. But if I own them I’m selling high. The fact of the matter is these guys are not, nor have they ever been, THIS good. If you own one of these guys, I’m milking them for all their worth. Mark my words on this one, starting pitching is so deep, shore up a hole in your roster by getting rid of these guys. I think these guys will be good for the rest of the season, but I think both of their value has peaked right now. Three straight complete games!?! Are you kidding me?

I’m going to say this now, and I will probably elaborate on this in my article next week, but Joe Mauer’s contract may go down as one of the biggest busts in baseball history.

The Mike Stanton Mancrush-Meter was a 6 last week. I’m sad to say it’s down to a 5 this week. He sat the first few games of last week with an eye infection and then came back and had two straight 3 hit games on Wednesday and Thursday before he had a golden sombrero Friday night, striking out all four times he came to the plate. With no mammoth, testosterone-inducing bombs to the crowded Sun Life Stadium outfield bleachers this week, I sure hope he hits one this week.

Joke of the week:Adrian Gonzalez’s batting average in June is 10 points higher than Shaq’s free throw percentage in the entire 2006-2007 season with the Heat. I can’t tell which is funnier; how good Gonzalez is or how bad Shaq was.

Evan Longoria homered twice and drove in five runs in Tampa Bay Rays' 14-10 slugfest win over the Houston Astros. It was the seventh career multi-homer game for Longoria. He was a triple shy of hitting for the cycle.

My fantasy perspective: Overall, the 2011 season has been a disappointing one to fantasy owners who invested a high first-round pick (5.2 ADP) to own him. He's currently ranked 215th on ESPN's Player Rater and the 17th overall third baseman.

But things are looking up. Over the last 30 days, Longo is the ranked 31st overall with his .293/19/7/24/0 line. Even better, he was 8-for-14 (.571 BA) with three doubles, three home runs and 10 RBI in the three game series against the Astros this weekend.

If Longo can continue to put up the kind of numbers he's been putting up recently, fantasy owners will soon forget about a forgettable first half. Any window of opportunity to acquire him cheaply has probably closed but paying fair market value or even a little above may pay off to be the right move to make. Go for it, especially in any kind of keeper league.

Sunday, June 26, 2011

As a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, one of the requirements is to post an official All-Star ballot each year. As a member of the Fantasy Chapter, my ballot will have a fantasy skew to its nominees.

Let's get to the balloting, by league. Up first, COSFBA's 2011 American League All-Stars:

So there you have them, COSFBA's 2011 Fantasy Baseball All-Star rosters. Agree? Disagree? Use the comments section to award your fantasy baseball all-stars. Feel free to comment on who you'd have as a reserve player, too.

NOTE: All stats referenced are as of games played through June 25th, 2011 and are for standard 5x5 scoring categories.

Justin Verlander struck out a career-high 14 over eight dominant innings of four-hit ball to lead the Detroit Tigers 6-0 over the Arizona Diamondbacks. He now leads the majors with 124 strikeouts and tied for most wins with 10.

My fantasy perspective: Stop me if you've heard this one before, Verlander is making the case with each start to become not only the number-one fantasy baseball pitcher (which he currently is) but climbing the rankings to become the overall number-one fantasy baseball player (currently seventh),

Over his last 10 starts, Verlander is 8-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 73 strikeouts over a span of 80.2 innings pitched. Incredibly, hitters are batting just .155 with a .189 BABIP and striking out nearly 25% of the time (73 of 293 batters faced).

Overall, he's pitched a quality start in 16 of his 17 starts and on pace for his first 20-win season. Verlander is one of just an elite few who could easily pitch a no-hitter every time he steps on the mound.

Saturday, June 25, 2011

James Shields threw his third consecutive complete game in leading the Rays to a 5-1 victory over the Houston Astros. He allowed just one run on three hits, walking one and striking out nine. The Rays are now 12-4 in Shields' 16 starts this season

His numbers are based in reality, too. A 2.89 xFIP and .250 BABIP are sustainable along with his 8.65 K/92.07 BB/9. The only red flag I see is his 83.5 LOB%. Eventually, some of those runners are going to have to start scoring, right?

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Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants struck out 12 and allowed just three hits over seven shutout innings of the Giants 2-1 victory over the Minnesota Twins. It was the fourth double-digit strikeout game of the season and 30th of Lincecum's career.

My fantasy perspective: Lincecum had been struggling in June, going 0-2 in four starts with a 7.59 ERA and averaging less than six innings per start. Those kinds of numbers probably caused him to get traded in many leagues. Well look at him now!

You know what you're getting when you draft a player such as Lincecum and there are going to be rough stretches to overcome. His wins may be down this season (on pace for 13) but he'll get you the 200-250 strikeouts you were hoping for out of the second pitcher drafted with an ADP of 14.8 in ESPN leagues.

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The challenge is an MLB Salary Cap league where DraftStreet sets prices based on projected fantasy value each day. Your mission is to find the bargains and use your $100,000 to make the best team possible within the budget.

Outfielder Chris Heisey of the Cincinnati Reds homered three times and drove in five runs in a 10-2 victory over the New York Yankees in the second game of their doubleheader to earn a split on the day. It was the first multi-homer game and also the first lead-off home run of his young career. Heisey is the 27th player in Reds' history to homer three times in a game.

My fantasy perspective: Heisey hasn't been fantasy relevant up until this point (0.1% ESPN; 1% Yahoo! owned) but all that is probably changing as I type this article. Every fantasy owner still paying attention to their team(s) in a daily league is gauging who to drop to pick up "that guy that hit 3 bombs last night".

Unless you wake up to the news tomorrow morning stating that Jonny Gomes was designated for assignment, save your waiver wire claim. Dusty Baker isn't running a rookie out to left field on a regular basis. OVER HIS DEAD BODY! Keep an eye on Heisey's playing time before committing, unless he hits a few more bombs, of course.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

If you find yourself lagging behind in the standings in the stolen base category, don't worry. It happens to the best of us. This edition of Waiver Saviors trolls the wire looking for players who should be able to help you in the stolen base category sooner rather than later.

OF Jason Bourgeois, HOU (19.4% ESPN; 12% Yahoo!) has returned from a DL stint (ankle) and working his way back into the lineup as often as possible. He had 12 SB in 28 games prior to the injury and five in 13 games since. He'll give you the steals you need and won't kill you team batting average, either (.289 since his return). Daily leaguers will need to monitor his playing time for now.

OF Jordan Schafer, ATL (11.6% ESPN; 6% Yahoo!) is tied for the major league leads in steals over the last 15 days with 7 SB, but those come at the price of a .246 batting average over that span. If you are truly desperate for steals and can afford to take a hit in the batting average category, go for it.

2B/SS Alexi Casilla, MIN (49.5% ESPN; 25% Yahoo!) has 7 SB in his last 23 games with a .330 batting average, 2 HR, 11 RBI and 16 Runs. He's producing enough in all five standard categories to give your team a much needed June boost. His middle infielder eligibility gives you some additional roster flexibility to work his speed into the lineup as often as possible.

2B Jemile Weeks, OAK (11% ESPN; 12% Yahoo!) has 4 SB in his last six games and is hitting a cool .409 (9/22) over that span. The second base job seems to be his and he's literally running with it. He won't bring any power and probably not a ton of runs either considering Oakland's underwhelming offense, but deserves to be owned by the stolen base hungry owner.

SS Alcides Escobar, KC (67.9% ESPN; 28% Yahoo!) is starting to show Royals' fans some of what they got in return in the Zack Greinke trade. He has 7 SB over his last 15 games and hitting .434 with 7 XBH, 1 HR, 7 RBI and 12 Runs. If you're still looking for a temporary fill-in for Derek Jeter, Escobar could be your answer for now (and beyond, if he keeps this up).

We are definitely at the point in the season where category jockeying is necessary in rotisserie scoring. You should be shooting for fourth place or higher in all categories (5x5) if you plan on making a run at the league title or finishing in the money spots.

Seth Smith homered twice and drove in three runs to lead the Colorado Rockies to a 4-3 victory over the Cleveland Indians. His second home run of the game came in the top of the ninth inning against the Indians' closer Chris Perez and broke a 3-3 tie. It was the fourth multi-homer game of Smith's career.

My fantasy perspective: Somehow Smith has gotten the reputation as a platoon player in fantasy baseball circles. He's on pace to play in 135 games and get 464 at-bats. At that pace, he's looking at a 5x5 line of .316/80/18/71/7 this season. Those fantasy numbers deserve to be owned in more than 47.1% of ESPN leagues and certainly more than just 29% of Yahoo! leagues.

His splits warrant him sitting against LHPs (8/38, .211 BA, 0 HR) but get this guy in your lineup against RHPs (58/171, .339, 8 HR). Why not create a righty/lefty platoon within your own team? For example purposes, Michael Cuddyer is hitting .388 (26/67, 6 HR) against LHPs and just .240 (44/183) against RHP yet owned in 100% of ESPN leagues.

My advice is to pick up Smith if he's still available on waivers in your league and look to create an internal platoon with your own outfielders. This strategy really only works if you're in a daily league though.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

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Here's how it works:

The challenge is an MLB Salary Cap league where DraftStreet sets prices based on projected fantasy value each day. Your mission is to find the bargains and use your $100,000 to make the best team possible within the budget.

Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers did it all against Detroit. He pitched a two-hit shutout, striking out 12 and driving in two runs in a 4-0 victory over the Tigers. It was his second two-hit shutout in his last five starts and third of his career.

My fantasy perspective: This performance ranks as the second-highest of the season by any player (according to ESPN's formula). Might I remind you there have been two no-hitters already this season and neither rank higher.

Kershaw currently leads the majors with 117 strikeouts in 107.2 (9.8 K/9 ratio) and seems to be firing on all cylinders. Plus his BB/9 ratio is at a career-low 2.7 compared to his overall career ratio of 3.9. It's no surprise his K/BB ratio is at a career-high of 3.66 compared to his career average of 2.40.

At just 23 years old, the future looks very bright for the Dodgers' ace. Lock him up in all keeper and dynasty leagues for as long as your format allows.

I recently reached out to fantasy baseball veteran Mike Gianella (bio) of Roto Think Tank for his perspective on "league-only leagues" versus "mixed leagues" and the following are some things to consider when deciding which format is right for you. Mike should also be followed by you on Twitter @MikeGianella. Enjoy his viewpoint.2010 marked my 24th year playing fantasy baseball but it was the first time I was invited to play in a mixed league. I had won a CBS expert A.L.-only league so was asked to participate in the now-defunct CBS League of Champions. Toward the end of the online draft, I happened to mention to the league’s commissioner that this was my first time playing in a mixed league. Based on his reaction, you would think that I had told him that baseball itself sucks.

When people ask me why I prefer N.L. or A.L.-only leagues to mixed leagues, I have a lot of different answers. But if I’m honest about it, the real reason I play N.L. and A.L.-only is that when I started playing mixed leagues was practically unheard of.

I discovered Rotisserie League Baseball in the 1980s the way a lot of people did: by stumbling onto the original book at my local bookstore. Instantly, I became enamored with the concept. How could I not? Strat-O-Matic was one thing, but there was a game where the statistics of live baseball games counted? This sounded like the greatest thing ever to a 16-year-old kid who loved baseball and gaming.

The Rotisserie League Baseball book painted such a negative picture of mixed leagues that I was perfectly happy to start out doing N.L.-only. By the time mixed leagues were in fashion in the mid-to-late-1990s, I was happily in playing in one A.L.-only league and N.L.-only league and was fine with that.

I used to waste a lot of time flogging people for playing in mixed leagues. As I’ve gotten older and (hopefully) wiser I take more of a live-and-let-live approach. I can also see some of the advantages of mixed leagues, as well as some of the different challenges they present.

But if someone new to fantasy baseball asked for my opinion, I’d definitely try to sell him on the advantages of a deep N.L. or A.L.-only league. Here’s why:

It’s a great way to learn (even more) about the game you love: It’s difficult to argue with the entertainment value of a 23-player line-up where all of the hitters are starters and all of the pitchers are #3 starters or better or closers. When I started playing Rotisserie-style baseball I had to not only figure out which starting second basemen were better but also which back-ups were better and which ones might wind up starting in the Major Leagues over the guys ahead of them on the team. By the end of my first season, I went from thinking that I knew everything there was to know about baseball to realizing that there was plenty to learn about the game and how it worked.

Your talent evaluation skills are truly tested: In one-league leagues, you’ve got to make a call early and live or die with it. Erik Bedard is a great example. Sure, it’s apparent in mid-June to anyone with a pulse that he should be on your team. But in an A.L.-only you had to either take the plunge in April or not own Erik Bedard in 2011. Then you had to decide whether or not his terrible start was worth suffering through or if you should cut bait. Having the option to wait on Bedard is probably easier on the stomach, but I like these types of challenges and truly testing my baseball acumen.

Rosters more closely resemble the real thing: I’m not going to get on my soapbox and try to make a rational argument that owning Humberto Quintero is exciting. But while I don’t like owning Quintero, I do enjoy having to make tough choices about my team. Do I want to focus on power hitters or guys with speed? Do I want to try and grab a couple of ace starters or get a top flight closer and hope to pull and pray with my rotation? Real teams with budgetary constrains make decisions like this all the time. I also have to carry bench players and middle relievers, just like real Major League teams. And just like real MLB teams do, I have to choose wisely or my team will fail.

One-league leagues are better suited to keeper/auction leagues: If you like drafts and starting over every year then this argument doesn’t play, but I prefer keeper leagues and auctions. I like having the opportunity to keep players for a few years before I lose them to the free agent pool and like the complexity salaries and contracts add to this dynamic. I’ve seen mixed league keeper leagues with auction formats but they are few and far between.

If you do insist on playing in a mixed league, I would recommend playing in a 14 or 15-team league so that you at least have some of the challenges I’ve outlined above. 12-team mixed leagues start to resemble All-Star leagues; 10-team mixed leagues or fewer are probably fun for some but conceptually don’t seem competitive to me. In the end, though, you have to do what’s fun for you, not me. I love deep league formats. But I understand that while I find them exciting, you might not. Whatever format or type of league you play in, make sure it’s fun for you.

Monday, June 20, 2011

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Hello to all the COSFBA readers, and thank you for allowing me into your wonderful homes. I'd first like to start off by wishing all the papas out there a very Happy Father's Day. I hope you were fed too much, annoyed by your kids a little less, and finally got those Callaway golf balls you've wanted for a while but were too lazy to get yourself.

But anways, the name of this article is, "The Knurve To Say". I'll make some awesomely bold, yet stunningly correct assertions and then do my best to back it up. So here we go!

This week, I have The Knurve To Say...... Carl Crawford this year is Curtis Granderson from last year!
I tweeted this the other day @TheKnurve (first shameless plug), but I wanted to talk a little bit more about a revelation I had earlier this week and that is "a comparison between Crawford this year and Granderson last year". Many fantasy owners, and certainly the Red Sox, have been very disappointed with Crawford's production to this point, and reasonably so. He's only on pace for 14 dingers, 19 steals and a .243 AVG, which is a much slower pace than we were anticipating out of the number-one outfielder off the board in many league's drafts. Both men also have to battle the stigma that they cannot hit lefties. Granderson seems to have figured it out (.277 with 9 HR in 83 at-bats) while Crawford is struggling mightily, hitting just .151 in 86 at-bats against southpaws this season.

Some of you may or may not remember Granderson got off to a similarly atrocious start last year, posting a two-HR April (and both dingers came on the opening weekend in Fenway) and just a .221 AVG before missing almost all of May with a groin injury. Granderson came back and struggled some more before having what Yankee fans may start calling "The Meeting" with hitting coach Kevin Long, who shortened up his swing and made it fit to Yankee Stadium. Granderson hit a total of 14 stinkers in August and September and the rest, as they say, is history. The adjustments Granderson made with Long were to shorten up his swing and eliminate some of the extraneous movement that slowed him down so much.

In looking at Crawford's swing, I see some similar problems with extraneous movement. Both men left pitchers parks, entered hitters parks and signed big old contracts, therefore lofting expectations about what they are capable of. But we have to remember adjustment periods are necessary to help cater swings to ballparks to fit their skill-set. I'm not saying Crawford and Granderson are identical players (although they are similar), I'm simply saying if Crawford can take a page out of Adrian Gonzalez's book and figure out how to fight lefties off the other way with the short porch in left-field, then he'll be the fantasy player we all hoped he would be. So to you, Crawford owners, expect him to start figuring lefties out in Fenway. He's just too talented not to.

The impetus for this whole idea was taking a look at Crawford's speed numbers and realizing how much hitting at the bottom of the order is hurting his fantasy value. I owned Granderson last season and was furious he was hitting at the bottom of the Yankees lineup. If he could just get to that 2-hole then it would turn him into the offensive force we all expected. Just look what he's done in that spot this year: .288 AVG, 17 shtoinkers, 44 RBI and 9 SB. #Winning.

As strange as this may seem, I think Crawford's injury will help him in the long run. I'm pretty convinced Granderson's injury forced him to tighten things up at the dish so maybe the same will happen to Crawford. I do want to mention with the season Jacoby Ellsbury is having, I don't think Crawford is ever going to hit those speed numbers we hoped he would. I highly doubt he ever tops 50 steals in a Red Sox uniform. I look for him to be in the 35-40 range when he finally figures his life out.

So now that I've gotten that little tangent out of the way, here are some fantasy thoughts I had from this past week:

Things are getting ugly for the Marlins. Watching this team play baseball has been as painful as listening to a Lil' B song. For those of you who don't know what I'm talking about, watch this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8m5CIcbytfM). They actually have the bullpen and I am a believer in their offense, but with Hanley Ramirez as disappointing as he's been and Chris Coghlan getting sent down, it's hard to keep the faith. I truly believe this team has all the pieces. Sure, they may have been playing above their heads the first two months of the season, but I think we all know they're not THIS bad. I'm definitely buying low on Hanley, for the right price. It's times like these in keeper leagues where you can pounce on a sell-high/buy-low situation while catch the opposing owner off guard. This might just be one of those years for Hanley.

Adrian Gonzalez is a legitimate Triple Crown candidate. I was worried about his shoulder going into the year, but there are nights like last Tuesday where the Red Sox had five hits against the Jays and Gonzalez had 3 of them. Those are the performances that make you think this guy is onto something, especially considering he was 13-for-30 this week with three clobbershows and seven RBI.

Going off of A-Gon, I have to say I'm starting to lose a little faith in Jose Bautista. Something has looked off about him in the past three weeks. Someone in one of my leagues just traded him for Matt Kemp straight up, and I think it was a great deal. He's slugging just .333 this month and pitchers are just not throwing to him. And guess who's been the beneficiary? The RED-HOT Adam Lind. Don't think these two occurrences aren't directly tied. Lind has been hitting lefties since he's been back and with Bautista's amazing ability to take walks, pitchers are being forced to throw to Lind, and he's been raking. That's a trend I can see continuing. I'm not saying Bautista's going to fall off the face of the earth, but this might be a good sell-high opportunity while many analysts are saying he's the new number-one fantasy player.

I think Billy Butler will be a Ray by the end of the season. Sell high on him now because that's a crappy hitter’s park and he can't hit home runs.

Since I'm talking a lot about selling, I want to share some buying opportunities. I know I own both of them on one team, but I think now is a buying opportunity for both Dan Uggla and Adam Dunn. I think both of them are onto something. And while neither may turn it on in the AVG department, I can definitely see both of them taking different approaches at the plate that will help them in the long run.

A walk-off balk? Are you kidding me, Mets?

Don't look now but I think Jhonny Peralta might be legit. He has been the primary beneficiary of hitting next to those guys Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera and I can see him putting up these numbers over the course of the year. He has mid-20's home run power with the ability to hit for AVG. With middle infield power as weak as it has been, he is someone I might make a run at.

I firmly believe that last weekend’s Brewers-Red Sox series will be a World Series Preview.

The Mike Stanton Man-Crush meter currently sits at a six. With no home runs this week, Stanton has been letting me down. I take solace in the fact that nobody on the Marlins is hitting, so maybe his young, stellar, beautiful, strong, still-developing brain just needs to allow cooler heads to prevail in that clubhouse. He'll get it back and will be jacking monster shots in no time.

Joke of the week: What time was it in Boston during the Stanley Cup? 15 past Luongo. The joke's even funnier because nobody cares about hockey.

I'll be doing this segment each and every Monday, so get used to it and let me know what you think.

James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays pitched a complete game four-hitter and struck out 10 in a 2-1 win over the Florida Marlins. It was his fifth complete game of the season. He had five complete games in his previous 151 starts coming into the season.

My fantasy perspective: Shields leads the majors with five complete games and three shutouts. No one saw these numbers coming, especially not the Marlins. He's now 2-0 with two complete games against them this season without allowing an earned run. He also has a 23:1 K:BB ratio against them in those 13 innings.

Overall, he's 7-4 with a 2.40 ERA, 1.00 WHIP with 108 strikeouts in 112.2 innings pitched. That's fantasy gold for a starting pitcher with an ADP of exactly 100. Pair him up with David Price and Jeremy Hellickson and the future is bright in Tampa Bay.

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Scott Baker of the Minnesota Twins pitched eight scoreless innings while striking out 10 in 1-0 victory over the San Diego Padres. It was the third time in his career he'd struck out 10 or more batters in a game.

My fantasy perspective: Baker has won his last three starts in dominant style. Over those 24 innings, he has a 22:1 strikeouts to walks ratio. He's thrown 70% strikes and holding hitters to a .205 batting average.

My fantasy perspective: Hudson raised his record to 15-6 since joining the Diamondbacks with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Since starting the season 0-4, he's gone 8-1 in 11 starts with a 2.82 ERA and a 60/12 K/BB ratio.

With Hudson and Ian Kennedy at the front of the Diamondbacks rotation, the future is looking bright for a franchise on the rebound.

Friday, June 17, 2011

Cliff Lee of the Philadelphia Phillies pitched a two-hit shutout against the Florida Marlins, striking out four and walking two. It was his 22nd complete game and seventh shutout of his career. He also had two hits and drove in a run in his own support.

Overall, he's striking out batters at a career-best rate of 9.6 per nine innings. A deeper look into his numbers shows batters have a .313 BABIP, meaning there's room for him to be even better if some of those balls don't fall in. His ERA of 3.12 compared to his xFIP of 2.63, again, shows he's been even better than his traditional numbers are showing.

If you don't own Lee on any of your fantasy baseball teams, better luck next year. No owner in their right mind is selling a potential Cy Young candidate at this point in the season.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Josh Beckett of the Boston Red Sox allowed one hit, walked none and struck out six Tampa Bay Rays in a 3-0 win. It was the first one-hitter of his career. It was also the tenth complete game and fifth shutout of his career.

My fantasy perspective: Beckett currently leads the majors with a 1.86 ERA. How many of us saw that one coming? The answer is no one did. His ADP of 177.5 in ESPN leagues and 151.7 in Yahoo! leagues prove not even the expert ranking had him anywhere near the Top 100. His Spring Training numbers (1-4, 5.33 ERA, 25.1 IP, 28 H, 15 ER) sure didn't scream he'd be this successful in 2011.

A deeper look into his numbers show he may be the beneficiary of good luck. For those not familiar with xFIP, it's been described as "pure ERA" and "one of the best metrics at predicting a pitcher’s future performance". Beckett's current ERA is 1.86 while his xFIP stands at 3.69 (a -1.83 difference). Hitters only have a .2.17 BABIP against him with an 84.3 LOB%.

Nothing says Beckett can't keep having a great season but the numbers show there's room for change and most of it being in the negative direction. Enjoy the numbers you've gotten out of him so far while exploring a deal with the Red Sox fanatic owner in your league.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Justin Verlander took a no-hitter into the eighth inning and finished with a complete game two-hit shutout, striking out a season-high 12 and walking one. He now has five shutouts and 13 complete games in his career.

My fantasy perspective: Over his last nine starts (covering 69.2 innings), Verlander is 6-0 with a 2.07 ERA, allowed just 43 hits with 62 strikeouts (8.1 K/9) and just 13 walks (4.8 K/BB). Batters are hitting just .178 against him with a .260 slugging percentage over that span. That's nothing short of dominant.

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Hunter Pencewent 3-for-4 with a home run and four RBI to lead the Astros to an 8-3 victory over the Atlanta Braves and extended his hitting streak to a career-best 23 games. His hitting streak is tied for the fourth-longest in team history and second only to Andre Ethier's 30-game streak this season.

My fantasy perspective: Pence has been on an absolute tear during his 23-game hitting streak. He's batting .406 (39/96) with four home runs, 12 XBH, 19 RBI and 19 runs scored and has raised his average from .280 to .325.

Pence has hit 25 home runs in each of the past three season and is currently on pace for 22 home runs this season with 121 RBI. His career-high for RBI is 91. His overall 5x5 line of .325/33/9/50/3 ranks him as the 23rd overall fantasy player and 11th-best outfielder. Owners who grabbed him with an ADP of 57.3 are seeing a much higher return on investment already.

Monday, June 13, 2011

Here are some fantasy baseball-relevant tidbits and notes I picked up from box scores and recaps from games played on Sunday, June 12th, 2011:

Miguel Olivo homered twice, giving him 10 on the season. It was the fourth multihomer game of his career. Over the last 30 days, he's put up a 5x5 line of .289/16/8/21/2, making him the #1-ranked fantasy catcher over that span. He's only owned in 40.5% of ESPN and 39% of Yahoo! leagues.

Ichiro Suzuki had his second consecutive two-hit game. I think someone translated all of those "Is Ichiro done?" articles. I think the answer is no. Sure he's only hitting .258 but still on pace for 172 hits and 34 stolen bases. I'll take the over on batting average and hits at this point and under on stolen bases.

Derek Jeter had two hits and is now at 2,993 for his career. You could do a lot worse at shortstop in fantasy baseball than the Yankee Captain. I'll be watching and cheering when 3,000 comes.

Kyle Drabek gave up eight earned runs in four innings and saw his ERA jump from 4.98 to 5.70 with a 1.79 WHIP. If he wasn't already unownable prior to this start, he definitely is now.

Daniel Hudson won for the seventh time in eight decisions since starting the season 0-4. Congrats to all the owners who stuck with him or those who were able to grab him off waivers.

Ryan Roberts hit his 10th home run of the season and second in two days. He also has nine stolen bases on the season and now on pace for a 25/22 season. He qualifies at 2B, 3B and even OF in some formats. This all screams MUST OWN to me.

Johnny Damon hit his 27th career leadoff home run and has reached base in a career-best 37 consecutive games. He's only owned in 54% of all Yahoo! leagues. Look past the name. His numbers (.279/30/8/33/7) are very ownable.

J.P. Howell picked up his first save of the season. Kyle Farnsworth was not available because of the flu. Keep an eye on who gets the next handful of saves for the Rays.

Jose Reyes had three hits, including a home run, and increased his batting average to a major league-leading .346. He's the sixth-ranked player in fantasy baseball and doing all he can to get a one-way ticket out of New York.

Andrew McCutchen has an 11-game hitting streak in which he's hitting .488 (20/41) with 10 RBI.

Dan Uggla broke out of a 7-for-76 slump by going 5-for-11 with a home run in last three games against Houston.

Wandy Rodriguez was activated from the DL and scheduled to start today. Adjust your rosters accordingly.

Prince Fielder hit 19th home run of the season, a 440 foot blast, and continues to lead the NL in RBI with 58. Enjoy it while you can, Brewers fans.

John Axford converted his 15th straight save opportunity and 18th out of 20 overall.

Philip Humber is 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA over his last nine starts and is now owned in 59.6% of ESPN and 45% of Yahoo! leagues. Grab him off waivers if you're struggling in your pitching categories.

Adam Dunn hit his second home run in four games. He's 3/12 (.250) with six RBI and three walks over that span. Sad to celebrate those numbers as a "good thing" but it is. And more of the bad: he's hitting .031 (1-for-47) against left-handed pitching this season.

Francisco Liriano was six outs from his second no-hitter of the season. In his last 38 innings, he has a 1.89 ERA and allowed 17 hits and 17 walks. That's what fantasy owners wanted to see.

Matt Kemp hit his NL-leading 20th home run and is the #1-ranked fantasy baseball player this season with his .331/45/20/56/14 line and on pace for a 48/34 season. There's the future MVP we've all been waiting to see.

PHEW! That was a mouthful of information. I'll be sure to get started on those recaps earlier in the day to have them posted at a more favorable time. Regardless, please enjoy and feel free to comment or let me know how helpful this information would be if delivered earlier in the day after.