April 24, 2013

After the electric news of 4-5 days ago that basically the entire idea of Rogoff/Reinhart that national debt levels above 90% retard real growth is just...well, let's say quite a stretch, as in bending over backwards, I found Cobert's treatment of the fracas below quite funny and even satisfying finally.

James Hamilton suggests a more conventional worry -- interest rates will rise and that will cost a lot.

That they haven't for Japan should make one 2nd guess this, and if one does, the "global savings glut" springs instantly to mind. Now, since the global savings glut is cultural in origin (think Chinese one-child policy combined with falling birth rates across the globe....), well, guess what, US interest rates are going to under-perform expectations we might imagine, and likely be under the weight of massive quantities of money looking for a home for....well, for decades actually, regardless of any ups and downs.

At some point you just have to realize this was clear all the time, but....mass psychology is nothing to take lightly we all know. Here's some fun.