The strength of the 2012 Washington Nationals
was their starting pitching, but as good as it was it had flaws. The Nationals
had to suffer through five starts of Chien-Ming Wang and his 6.23 ERA as a
starter, the Nationals shutdown Strasburg as a precautionary measure due to his
recovery from Tommy John's, and the Nationals had to live through Edwin
Jackson's 15 second half starts where opponents slash lines rose from
.228/.284/.397 to .259/.314/.447. Despite these few minor flaws, and only 151
innings as a starter from Detwiler, the Washington Nationals starters finished
the season with a 3.14 ERA, the best in the NL and second best in baseball.

The biggest and most important
difference between 2012 and 2013 is that the Nationals will not have Stephen Strasburg
on an innings limit. There is no shutdown date in 2013 and Strasburg is going
to take the mound and make his starts every fifth day with no
planned interruption. Even with being limited to 159 1/3 innings in 2012
Strasburg was second on the Nationals in fWAR with 4.3. It is simple to predict
that if Strasburg pitches the same in 2013 as he did in 2012 but for 40 2/3
more innings he would have a 5.4 fWAR.

As easy as that prediction is to
make, it misses something about Strasburg. He is still improving as a starting
pitcher. In order to understand how good the Washington Nationals starting
staff can be the first thing that has to be understood is that as good as
Strasburg has been he has yet to reach his potential. The truly scary part
about that is that Strasburg is already one of the best pitchers in baseball.
If he had finished out 2012 it may have been he that won the Cy Young and not
RA Dickey. Strasburg's array of pitches and the control and command he displays
with them is otherworldly. There is obviously the blazing fastball, but then
there is the change-up that appears to defy gravity in order to taunt the
batter before dropping out of the reach of his bat and the curve that has made
many a good batter flinch or outright hit the deck before dropping into the
strike zone for a called strike. If everything goes the way it is expected
for Strasburg he is going to be a 6 fWAR pitcher and win the NL Cy Young.

Expectations are a funny thing and
the Nationals and Nationals players are going to be no stranger to them. In
2012 Gio Gonzalez finished third for the NL Cy Young, led the NL in FIP and was
second to Clayton Kershaw in fWAR. As good as Gio was he has to prove he can do
it again. The difference between a career year and a breakout season is what
follows. If Gio goes back to the 3.5 fWAR pitcher he was in Oakland that is
still a very good pitcher, but it is not what he was last season. There is
reason to think that Gio not only can repeat 2012, but could be even better.
The big flaw with Gio Gonzalez has always been the walks, but in 2012 he walked
9.3% of the batters he faced, down from 10.5% the year before and 10.8% the
year before that. Gio Gonzalez and more importantly Steve McCatty know where
Gio's weakness lies, and the work down to cut down on walks in 2012 will
continue in 2013. It is still doubtful that Gio can repeat 2012, but he should
be close to a 4.5 fWAR pitcher than a 3.5 one.

Jordan Zimmermann is an interesting
pitcher to talk about. He may very well be the best number three starter in
baseball, but he could be even more. Consider that what Jordan Zimmermann did
in 2012 was done with only a fastball and breaking ball. Of the 3083 pitches
that Jordan Zimmermann threw in 2012 62% of them were fastballs. He threw his
slider 24% of the time and his curve (that isn't much different than his
slider) 12% of the time. Of those 3083 total pitches thrown in 2012 Zimmermann
threw the change-up he attempted to learn in Spring Training a total of 66
times.

Developing a true third pitch is
important for Jordan Zimmermann, but also just as important is learning how to
pitch out of the strike zone. Too many times when Zimmermann is ahead
in the count he throws too good of a pitch. That isn't entirely his fault. His
slider and curve both have tight breaks and are not swing and miss pitches, and
Jordan Zimmermann's mentality with the fastball is to always go after the
batter. There were more than a few times in 2012 where Zimmermann got burned by
being too aggressive in the strike zone ahead in the count. Continuing to
work on the change-up or going to a different off-speed pitch like a splitter
could help to give Jordan Zimmermann the strikeout and change of speeds pitch
he needs to be a more effective starter. As it stands now Jordan Zimmermann is
the best third starter in baseball, but if he can add that third pitch he could
go from a 3.5 fWAR pitcher to a 4 or 5 fWAR pitcher, and give the Nationals yet
another league Ace.

At some point in 2011 with Detwiler
bouncing between the rotation, the bullpen, and the minors he was told to pitch
with conviction. To no longer fear the batters and to not be afraid of contact.
Since that time he has been a different pitcher, but part of his pitching with
conviction is the sinker that he added in 2011. It is that sinker that was his
out pitch. It registers the same speed as his fastball and there is no
difference to the arm action in which he throws it. For all intents and
purposes the batter thinks he is getting a fastball, but when he swings all he
is able to do is pound the ball into the ground.

In 2012 Ross Detwiler's ground ball
rate rose from 43.3% in 2011 and 43% in 2010 to 50.8%. Over half of the balls
put in play where put in play where Detwiler wanted them and where Ian Desmond,
Ryan Zimmerman, and Danny Espinosa could gobble them up. There is no reason to
think that Detwiler can’t continue to be an effective pitcher as long as he has
the sinker and batters continue to swing and pound it into the ground. In fact
Detwiler had many a game in 2012 where he almost exclusively threw fastballs.
That is the type of pitcher Detwiler needs to be to succeed and that is the
type of pitcher he grew into in 2012. As far as a fWAR number goes for 2013
there is no reason to not think that Detwiler can repeat and improve on his 1.8
rating in 2012. Simply expanding that out to 200 innings gives Detwiler a 2.2
fWAR, but there is no reason he can't be closer to a 3 fWAR pitcher, especially
if he continues to pitch with the sinker and conviction.

Dan Haren is the newest and final
member of the Nationals main five. Up until 2012 Haren was one of the most
underrated pitchers in baseball. In fact before last season he ranked fourth
all time in K/BB ratio behind only Tommy Bond, Curt Schilling, and Pedro
Martinez. Because of his sub-par 2012 he has since dropped to fifth all time
and Mariano Rivera has taken over the fourth spot. The troubles that Haren had
in 2012 were caused by an injury to his hip and back, and while that scared
away many suitors the Nationals took a chance with a one year $13
million deal.

It is hard to imagine Haren getting
back to the 6.0 fWAR pitcher he was in 2008, 2009, and 2011, but the 4.0 WAR
pitcher he has been for the rest of his career is a possibility. There are some
concerns with Haren and his declining velocity, but it has been a steady drop
over the last five seasons and not a drastic one. Haren has had time to adjust
to becoming a different pitcher, and when he had a 6.1 fWAR season for the
Angels in 2011 his average fastball velocity was already down to 89.8, compared
to his average velocity of 91.8 in 2007. Haren has succeeded in the majors
before as a lower velocity pitcher and can do the same in 2013 for the
Nationals.

As far as how good the entire unit
can be there is no reason to not believe that they can be as good if not better
than the 2012 version. In 2012 the Nationals finished second behind the Tigers
in fWAR with 18.1. If Strasburg reaches his potential as a 6.0 fWAR pitcher,
Gio Gonzalez has a modest drop to a 4.5 fWAR pitcher, Jordan Zimmermann learns
a third pitch and improves to a 4.0 fWAR pitcher, Detwiler continues to pound
the sinker and is a 3.0 fWAR pitcher, and Dan Haren regains some of his past
glory and is closer to a 3.5 fWAR than the 1.8 pitcher he was in 2012 then the
Nationals will be first in baseball in 2013 with 21.0 fWAR.

The scariest part about all of this
is that the Nationals could be even better than that. That projection relies on
things going right, but not to the degree that they could. The best-case
scenario for the Washington Nationals pitching staff is off the charts. Haren
could get back to a 6.0 fWAR pitcher, Gio could suffer no drop off, Strasburg
could take it to a new level and have a historically great season, and Detwiler
and Zimmermann are both still young and improving with loads of talent. And as
fun as it is to sit here in January and try and forecast what the pitching
staff might do, it will be even better to sit back and watch what they will do
once April 1 rolls around.