In polls leading up to that election, Faulconer lead Alvarez in head-to-head matchups from three percent in September to 13 percent just days before the election.

Leve cautioned anyone from reading too much into the current poll numbers as they provide a snapshot in time. For example, the first U-T San Diego/10News poll released Sept. 24 had Fletcher as the clear front-runner with 30 percent followed by Faulconer with 22 percent and Alvarez with 17 percent.

Fletcher’s stock then gradually fell as he was pummeled with negative ads focusing on his shifting positions and party switching from Alvarez and Faulconer supporters. He eventually finished third with 24 percent and is now watching from the sidelines.

“Nobody should use the results of today’s poll to predict the outcome of the election,” Leve said. “Nathan Fletcher led, and as we know, he did not make it to the runoff. So the first poll two months before an election is not the same as the last poll. All we can conclude from today’s numbers is that the two city councilmen start on even footing and what unfolds over the next eight weeks will be determined by San Diego’s most likely voters.”

SurveyUSA’s poll assumes 22 percent of the voters will be Hispanic. That’s considerably higher than the Hispanic turnout in recent elections. Political Data Inc., which regards itself as California’s largest provider of voter information, measured the Hispanic share of the turnout at 10.9 percent in the June 2012 primary and 15.2 percent in the November general election and projected a 12.4 percent Hispanic electorate for the Nov. 19 mayoral special election.

The current poll was conducted Monday through Thursday by SurveyUSA of 515 city of San Diego adults identified as likely voters. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points. Of the respondents, 41 percent were identified as Democrats, 35 percent Republicans and 23 percent independents.

Alvarez and Faulconer likely won’t make any overt campaign push until after Jan. 1 because of the holidays. They’ve agreed to six televised debates in the new year, a contrast to the dozens of forums and events they attended before November’s election.

The best guess for the runoff election is Feb. 4 or Feb. 11, depending on when election officials certify the results from the special election. The City Council is expected to set the exact date in the next two weeks.

The selection of a new mayor comes after former Mayor Bob Filner resigned Aug. 30 amid sexual harassment allegations.