Manhattan Institute's Nicole Gelinas considers a pay raise offered to workers "too generous" because it does not come with changes in work rules. She dares the governor to "take a strike."

Followers of Manhattan Institute fellow Nicole Gelinas were hardly surprised that she sided against the eight unions representing Long Island Rail Road workers, who could strike as early as July 20. They know her to be a big fan of the mass-transit system but not of its union wages, benefits and work rules that crowd out funding for maintenance and capital improvements.

But the case she laid out against the unions' salary demands implicitly made a rather startling point: Ms. Gelinas does not believe the Metropolitan Transportation Authority should give its LIRR employees any real raise at all.

"The authority offered the 5,500 workers who belong to the commuter-rail unions 18.4% raises over seven years—including $22,136 apiece in back pay. In return, the MTA wants existing workers to pay 2% of their pay (not including overtime) for health care, and new workers—people who don’t work there yet—to pay 4%. The agency also wants future workers to pay 4% of their pay toward pension costs for their entire careers, not just the current 10 years."

Her conclusion: "The MTA is being too generous."

The Insider inquired whether 18.4% raises over seven years (retroactive to 2010) wouldn't be entirely offset by inflation and the employees' paying a portion of their health insurance premiums and pension contributions.

"Pretty much," Ms. Gelinas acknowledged by email, "although they would only pay a percentage of straight time, not overtime, toward health care. I think the key here is that they get away with pretty much no change to pensions and work rules."

TWU Local 100, which represents bus and subway employees in New York City, settled its contract with the MTA without having to reform work rules that authority leaders have complained about for years. That union, which got raises totaling 11%, is forbidden by state law from striking but was likely to get those raises from an arbitrator if the MTA didn't offer them.

The LIRR situation is more dramatic because the workers have the right to walk off their jobs. Ms. Gelinas dared Gov. Andrew Cuomo to "take a strike" and bring his case to voters, but that would involve great political risk—given the certainty of a commuting nightmare—in an election year. By not yet offering to provide wage increases in real terms, the MTA seems to be leaving the governor room to push negotiations across the finish line.

The MTA does not admit to that, of course. It says it has improved its offer multiple times and is now willing to give the union as much money as it previously said it would be willing to accept. The typical LIRR union member makes $65,000 in base pay and $20,000 in overtime, according to the agency, which is the highest of any commuter rail road in the nation.

Mr. Cuomo, for his part, signaled Monday that he would let Congress resolve a strike, as it has the right (but not the obligation) to do. His comments could be seen as lowering the public's expectations. The governor does not have direct authority over the MTA but controls a plurality of its board members and nominates its chief executive.