In an election cycle where little has gone according to plan, New York was until recently thought to be the exception. Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, was expected to have a sleepy race for the job once held by his father, three-term governor Mario Cuomo, the culmination of a longstanding plan that included a stint as state attorney general and as President Bill Clinton’s Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.

With Cuomo casting himself as an Albany reformer, political watchers braced for a clear glide-path to victory over former Republican Rep. Rick Lazio.

Text Size

-

+

reset

POLITICO 44

But instead of Lazio winning the nomination, it was brash, mad-as-hell, Buffalo developer Carl Paladino who emerged victorious by a wide margin in the Republican primary last month. He had support from some tea party groups, but more important, he harnessed a very raw anger among GOP primary voters, largely in economically ravaged western New York.

Cuomo — who’s stuck largely to a Rose Garden approach for most of the year — was clearly caught flat-footed by the outcome. And suddenly, the cautious pol who is known for calling reporters personally about stories he doesn’t like finds himself in an unsettling predicament: how to run against an angry, unpredictable guy who is willing to say and do almost anything.

“I have never seen, at this level [of major-party candidacy], such an unorthodox kind of campaign,” said Doug Muzzio, a Baruch College political science expert. “It’s almost as if [Paladino is] running for a cable TV show rather than running for governor. There’s a difference between mad-angry and mad-crazy. “

Cuomo, who careened from one strategy to another for the two weeks after the Sept. 14 primary, appears to have hit pay dirt this week in the form of his rival’s own mouth.

Paladino’s candidacy has been widely viewed as melting down since Wednesday, first drawing horrendous headlines after he claimed to POLITICO that Cuomo had paramours when he was married and alleged that he could prove it. He walked back his claims, but then asserted that he had the information in a box. He was unable to keep a consistent message about the issue, including during a single Fox News interview, on Friday.

That flap followed an interview with an Asian-American Fox-5 television reporter where Paladino asked the reporter if he was an illegal immigrant during a rhetorical exchange on policy — in a clip in which he also promised the race was about to get nastier. Most significantly, he starred in a viral video, which played repeatedly on cable TV, in which he argued with a longtime New York Post reporter who tried to push him on details of his claims, and he exploded that he would take you out if the paper tried to approach his daughter again.

For many New Yorkers, it’s the only thing they know about him.

Cuomo remains the overwhelming favorite, with a 15-percentage point lead in the latest Marist College poll, and a nearly $20 million war chest left. But he is dealing with an angry and unsteady electorate, an unmotivated Democratic base and, now, a politician’s least-favorite additive — the element of surprise.

Paladino has shot himself "in the foot and in some vital organs," said Muzzio. At the same time, Cuomo has also dramatically stepped up his advertising, mostly with spots aimed at driving up Paladino’s negatives by painting him as an Albany insider instead of the rage-against-the-machine, non-politician he claims to be. And in the last week, Cuomo started invoking Paladino by name for the first time.

Jimmy Siegel, the ad maker who produced the gauzy, black-and-white ads in Eliot Spitzer’s successful campaign for governor in 2006, said the task of defining Paladino as too-crazy-for-office is a delicate line to walk, especially in this volatile political climate.

“There’s always a question of, how far do you go in defining someone as loony or fringe or extremist? Where's the line? And how seriously do you take some of the things that he's done, and I think it's a tricky situation,” Siegel said. “I think you sort of ask yourself, ‘Do I attack him on character? Do I attack him on issues, or do I attack him on the fact that he's out of his mind?’”

Paladino campaign manager Michael Caputo insisted the characterization of the Upstate Republican as unhinged is way off the mark.

Carl Paladino may become the star of whacky politicans ! We all thought Sarah Palin , Christine O'Donnell , and Sharon Angle could act goofy , stupid , and get away with it ? He accused Cuomo of an extramarital affair while he is challenging a reporter who interviewed his 10 YEAR OLD ILLEGITIMATE DAUGHTER ! Since the reporter works for the New York Post ----- we all know Rupert Murdoch [ News. Corp ] is just a pimp for the Democratic Party and Andrew Cuomo , just like CARL says ! As a Buffalo developer , Mr Paladino may have enjoyed a few too many BUFFALO WINGS ? If the New York economy is as bad as I am told , what exactly is Paladino developing except for being the leader of whacky politicians . Andrew Cuomo has never lived up to his potential as the son of Mario ! He did a very good job as New York Attorney General which may rehabiltate him ? Whether or not he had a extramarital affair , he looks like and should stay the establishment candidate in this race . Someone needs to rehabiltate the New York Democratic Party and Cuomo can step up to join Chuck Schumer in doing it . The Tea Party political darlings like Palin / O'Donnell / and Angle oft times shoot themselves in the foot ! Let Paladino fire away !

Well I would become unhinged if you sent photographers to shoot pictures of my daughter too. Why don't you report the facts, then condemn the actions that lead to Palidinos reaction..You continue to attack the conservative's families, wives, children. Your all in position to elevate the conversation but too busy looking to make name for yourselves so you feed into it. Cuomo's pictures the last few days look like mafia bullying rather than rally's for the people Sunlight is the best disinfectant. So citizen representation does not a polished politician make. We want no more polished crap servers. We are cleaning our party out of the dead weight then we are coming for your party. At least we have made some changes to what brought our party down. Pelosi the swamp queen gave us inspiration. They wondered where the tea party was during Bush..We were the ones crashing congress phone systems..No one would listen then..but you all hear us now.

I will not vote for Cuomo no matter who is opposite him on the ballot. He is a symbol of everything that is wrong with this state and he will cave to every special interest group on the left if he is elected Governor.

We are in real deep financial trouble in NY and I shudder to think what will happen if drastic financial changes are not made. Cuomo, cannot and will not make those changes.

His election campaign has comprised mainly of telling us everything that is wrong with Paladino but has yet to offer us insight into what HE would do to address the needs of this state. That is because he has nothing new to offer. Albany will stay the same and we will continue to be taxed and regulated to death because of the special interests, unions, and lawyers that run this state.

Sooooo - The Democratic candidate is going to reform the state government of the Democratic policies practiced by the current Demmocratic governor. That's such an obvious crock that even an Obama voter could see through it.

You see, he is the epitome of the modern “conservative” Republican party. Inept, lying, cheating, violent, and hypocritical. He is a perfect representative and accurate ambassador for “conservative” Republicans.

And you are the embodiment of liberal open-mindedness and tolerance. Far be it for you to seize on the deficiencies of some demonstrably unbalanced reprobate to fit your stereotype of the typical conservative Republican.

Try as you might and rant as you will, reality remains reality and anyone with some modicum of reason can see through your thin veneer of prejudice.

I intend to continuously point out “conservative” Republican lies and “conservative” Republican malfeasances.

no you continue to spout the same tired BS day in and day out all you can state is republicans lie. The dems are just as bad as the republicans. Till you and the rest of your lemings learn that we need a complete house cleaning of both sides and a change in the tone of politics the country is sucking.

The “mortgage crisis” was caused by “conservative” policy and years of Republican fiscal malfeasances. Naturally, the “conservative” Republican response to this is to lie about it and blame it on Democrats, who had no power.

Sam, your beloved progressives have been setting this crisis up for decades. They are at the pinnacle of their agenda today.

America is waking up to this and will without a doubt put an end to it. Its the Rubber Band theory in a nut shell.

America is going to snap back into shape and liberals like you are going to stand there with your googly eyes staring at Obama when the back lash occurs in Nov.

30 days 23 hours 34 minutes 58 seconds left until November 2, 2010 8:00:00 and counting.