Monday, November 12, 2012

Obama's Asian Agenda

Warnings, one-upmanship and hearts
and minds tactics: gloves off in South-East Asia

Just one week after winning a second term Barak Obama is about to make a
trip to Thailand, Burma, and Cambodia to bolster support for the US in the
region.

During his first stop in Thailand Obama will use his best personal asset,
charm, to try to persuade the Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and her
cabinet to allow the US the use of airbases. With increased "foreign
elements" infiltrating into the southern provinces of Thailand, the US
is also still very keen to have some presence there to prevent the region
becoming a sanctuary and waypoint for further terrorist activity in other
areas of the region.

Obama will then travel onto Burma to meet President Thein Sein to try and
stem the strong Chinese influence with the government. Burma looks set to be
a frontline in the battle between Chinese and US companies for a share the
expected growth in business and infrastructure development within the country
over the next few years.

Normally such a trip to countries like Burma where there is still a long way
to go in human rights and economic reforms would not be made by a US
president. However, long-standing US government principles are being tossed
aside in the interests of increasing US influence in the region, reminiscent
of the Cold War days of the 1960s. Obama has put the new Chinese
administration on notice that his coming term will be one of competition in
winning the 'hearts and minds' (read handouts) of the nations surrounding
China.

However just a few days before Obama is due to arrive in Bangkok and attend
the US-ASEAN and East Asia Summits in Cambodia, US Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton, accompanied by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta will visit Australia
for an annual meeting of ministers (AUSMIN). The Assistant Secretary of State
for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Dr. Campbell has told the Australian press
the US administration is far from happy about Australian defense spending
budget cuts and that Australia must pull its weight and not become dependent
on the US.

Campbell highlighted US irritation with Australia, saying "I've signaled
that it is important. We count on Australia in so many ways. This is one of
the topics that we're going to be engaged closely on."

This is not the first time a US administration has publicly shown its
displeasure at Australia, with the deputy Secretary of Defense under the Bush
administration Richard Armitage voicing concerns about Australia's defense
budget and ability to work with the US. However this time around, voices on
Capitol Hill and the Pentagon in Washington are murmuring that the Australian
defense spending cuts threaten Canberra’s credibility as an ally to the US -
"Australia is freeloading on the American taxpayer."

US officials believe they are doing Australia a favor by stationing US
marines and air force in Darwin and that Australia is taking advantage.

For the record, Australia's defense budget has dropped to 1.56 percent of
gross domestic product compared to 1.8 percent last year. Ironically the US
unease with Australian cuts occurs at a time when the US is doing the same
thing.

Australia actually wants a further US escalation of commitment and during
Hillary Clinton's visit to Australia will showcase its Techport Maritime
Defense Center facilities with the hope of getting a lucrative contract to
service the US Pacific Fleet. However this may be unlikely as US law
prohibits major ship repairs from being undertaken outside the US. Only
voyage repairs can be done, which are currently undertaken with other allies
in the region closer to China, Singapore and Japan. It's a pipe dream for
Australia as the country has never done well in sharing the spoils of war
with the US.

Australia did very poorly in obtaining business contracts in Iraq after the
invasion, and even though the country did its fair share of the fighting in
WWII, had to almost beg for a term on the UN Security Council earlier this
year.

From Australia's point of view the US interest in stationing troops in
Australia is a windfall. Mineral exports to China and US troops spending on
the Australian mainland is good for the economy. It's also innovative
outsourcing for defense needs until the US woke up.

Just two weeks after Australia's Premier Julia Gillard launched the Australia
in the Asian Century policy paper, Gillard’s Asian policy advisors probably
feel that the rug has been pulled from under them with the bold personal
stamp Obama is about to make within the region.

The region is also watching the US browbeat Australia into submission once
again. Hardly a sign that Australia is a truly independent country.

In addition US voyage service contracts for the Pacific Fleet have shown
Australia to be overtly competing for business in Asia, probably sending the
message that Australia is a competitor rather than collaborator with the
region.

On the wider regional stage, the Obama administration is going for
"first strike" against China in what promises to be an unofficial
cold war, which at face value appears to be timed when China is off-guard and
focused with its own leadership transition. A very cool move in
"one-upmanship" that even the ancient Chinese General Sun Tzu would
be proud of.

If this is going to be a second unofficial cold war, then Asian nations this
time around will certainly take advantage of the major powers attempts to
shift detente with their long shopping lists. Asia Sentinel