Thursday, August 28, 2008

New Decima Poll

No big changes from the last Decima poll two weeks ago, still a statistical tie:

In the last week, the Liberals stood at 34 per cent, the Conservatives at 33 per cent.

The New Democrats were well back, at 15 per cent support, followed by the Green Party at 11 per cent and nine per cent for the Bloc Quebecois.

The last three week average result had it 33% for both parties, the NDP and Greens unchanged, the Bloc at 7%. No regionals released yet, but one can assume the Bloc number is up in Quebec, moving out of the tie with the Liberals.

Will have to wait to see the three-week average, but if the 34% holds, that will be a high water mark for Liberal support in any Decima poll since the last election.

Update later, once the internals are released, but if they are similar to the last Decima regionals, a statistical tie translates to razor slim Liberal minority.

41 comments:

I should be about 250, a quarter of CROP. Obviously, people will point to the bigger CROP poll as indicative, plus it's a Quebec firm, but I'll say it again, if you look at the regionals for these national polls in the leadup to the last election, they were pretty accurate.

I would also add, there doesn't seem to be anything to support a sudden uptick for the Cons in Quebec, unless of course cutting cultural funding is a plus. You could argue, Duceppe has been largely quiet over the summer, so the result might just be the typical scenario where lack of temporary limelight translates.

IMO, Duceppe is an able campaigner, he will do well in any debate, and he has plenty to hammer Harper on. If he plays the "stop a Harper majority" card in Quebec, paints himself as the leader of the party that can keep a right-wing agenda at bay, one would have to think that plays well.

Also, we should really be able to bite into NDP support if this is true ;)

"What's interesting about Mr. Dion is he's certainly the Liberal leader that has taken his party farthest to the left, at least since Mr. Trudeau, if not farther than Mr. Trudeau," Harper told reporters here on the last day of a tour of the Canadian Arctic."

Now, if CROP is accurate, wouldn't you expect at least ONE other outfit to show similar results? Even with a smaller sample, law of averages somebody would hit CROP's projections, and yet everyone else suggests something different. Hence my scepticism, the lack of others replicating the results is noteworthy, to say the least.

"By the way, Flanagan pissed me off so I added a little bonus to my monthly LPC donation this month."

I did that a couple weeks ago :)

Hey, a positive ad!!! Some are speculating that the Cons may go positive in the campaign, to counteract all the previous crap. Good luck turning Harper into the touchy, feely guy, nobody will buy that- stiff as a board and that is cemented. Strong leader, decisive, okay whatever, nice guy, ya right.

Seriously - if they want to go positive it is because they know Dion will do so, and that he has the reputation for sincerity and honesty on his side. In which case they would be reacting rather than leading, no?

I just don't think Harper works all positive in such, it's completely against everything Canadians have seen, so it will look like propaganda. Probably shouldn't say this, but the Cons are better off with the hard hitting stuff, it's their nature, seems more realistic to voters.

"Probably shouldn't say this, but the Cons are better off with the hard hitting stuff, it's their nature, seems more realistic to voters."

Then there is much more mileage for Harper to go hard right. Start attacking illegal immigrants, calling Dion a fetus killer etc. Sending the parents of young offenders to jail. This is my absolute fantasy of an election campaign.

When I clicked on the CTV news report to see the ad, I first had to watch the preview ad for the new horror flick "FEAR U" - now THAT was a fitting intro to the warm and fuzzy Harper.

Since I posted this on a an older entry that no one is really reading, I'll ask it here.

Gayle and Steve suggested the Cadman related trial would probably be delayed due to the election.

There may be an obvious answer, but my question is why would the case be delayed?

It is the conservatives case, after all. I just don't see the grounds for a judge to say, "Yeah, wouldn't want to hurt your election chances, let's push things back to November." Seems just as likely he'd say, "Why don't you hammer out an agreement. Otherwise, see you in the courtroom. Carry on."

And, in a related way, why shouldn't the Liberals use the tape in ads in the meantime? It is a public tape. No ruling has been made on its use.

I can think of practical reasons not to, including not wanting to piss off the judge. But you know, I also think if you're going to fight the battle, then fight the battle. Why set weapons aside, particularly since the conservatives clearly want the injunction because they are fearful they'll have to hear it in ads.

Harper has never denied the content of what he said on the tape, or answered questions as to what was going on with his party in that situation, or what he knew, or what he did to "investigate" it within the party.

The opposition should demand answers, and a campaign is as good a forum as any to demand them.

I am not advocating it should be the basis of an entire campaign. But why shouldn't it be brought up?

Everyone likes to commend the Cons for their 06 campaign, but really they benefited from the Libs self-imploding and a timely fake scandal, which changed the polls 10% overnight. Not to say the Cons weren't disciplined, but all they had to do is stay above the fray, given the circumstances. Will they more balanced then they have been the last two and half years? Of course, but nasty is the mindset, and the lure of attacking a "tax" will play heavily, especially if nobody breaks away.

As for the polls, I don't think they are irrelevant, they represent the starting point, but obviously the campaign is everything.

In '06 they hired professional actors to do the "Stand Up for Canada" ads. It worked because the Cons tapped the right message. Not sure about '08. Since leadership will become the topic the Cons want to run on, I expect the nasty ads to be rolled out to complement the ones you see now.

Jason: "pre-election polling will prove irrelevant "This is not always the case, pre writ gives one an idea of where the starting point is. From the Grit POV last Ont. election - pre & post writ were about the same numbers the campaign stayed on message, & the Torys & Dippers looked disorganized. Last Fed. election - your point is valid... up to a point. It was Martin who looked like the deer in headlights & the present PM was the boy in the plastic bubble.

- Oh, BTW interesting comment over on Mr K's blog. One of his readers claims the REAL reason for the present PM wanting an election so soon is the Grits will not get their $2million from Elections Canada until later this fall. If true, I would TOTALLY pull a dick move like that if I were in the present PM's shoes ; (-)

Joseph - I believe the case will be adjourned because the Plaintiff, Stephen Harper, will be unavailable. I guess the judge could say no to the adjournment, but you may see the liberals agreeing to it.

As for the tape, at this point it's authenticity is in question (not by me, but that very question is before the courts). If the LPC use it, and the court then orders an injunction due to the questionable authenticity, there may be an argument any damage claim can be increased as the LPC had notice the authenticity was in question before they used it.

Nanos is releasing a new poll at midnight on his website. He says that is shows that both the Libs and Cons have something to be worried about with an election around the corner. Also, the numbers show something interesting about the Bloc and Dips in Quebec? Can't wait for th big show this week! I think Ill put a little extra in the Libs coffers as well. The arrogance to suggest that the Libs will "fade away".

joseph - I do not think the LPC would use the tape anyway if they are trying to run as the "clean" campaign. No doubt they would like to have it played in the media though - again the libel chill will rule that out.

lib - if everyone topped up their donation this month as a result of Flanagan's shenanigans, the LPC would look pretty good and Flanny would look pretty bad.

I sent one of my colleagues a link to the article and he cut a cheque.