Democrats are getting excited about the 2018 congressional elections. There is all kinds of talk about it being an anti-Trump wave election that will represent a triumphal return of Democratic control of Congress. This is utterly ridiculous. In the first place, it is impossible to make a meaningful prediction eighteen months in advance. Look at how many people, including myself, predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the election.

The numbers are very much against them. They need to defend ten Senate seats in states Trump won while Republicans have only one seat in a state Clinton won. On the surface it may seem to be easier to take the House. That still seems unlikely. A combination of gerrymandered districts and people hating Congress but liking their congressman makes seat turnover very low. Last time only eight incumbents lost in the general election.

It’s hard to see that Democrats have done much of anything in the last six months to prepare for the election. They have been too busy whining about the last election and hating Trump. To the extent they are developing a strategy it seems to be doubling down on what didn’t work in 2016. Running around the country demonizing President Trump and the Republicans won’t bring the blue collar vote back.​If they want to do well next year, it’s time for them to roll up their sleeves and get to work. Wishful thinking about a wave election may make them feel better but it doesn’t get them more seats in Congress. ​