Monday, 2 February 2015

UK ELECTION TREND #GE2015 Prediction

A "significant" change to the model's prediction, as a surprise rise to
consumer confidence pushes the predicted vote share for the
conservatives back up a little. While it may look like they have a whole
1 point lead, this isn't really that big a change as the figures are
rounded to the nearest percentage point for the graph. The figures the
model actually use have a higher precision, and really it's still a
statistical tie between Labour and Conservative vote shares, as it has
been for some time.

And you'll notice this doesn't really bring much benefit to the
Conservatives in terms of gaining seats and remaining in government.
That's because the Conservatives have a great bulk of their support
stacked up in seats they already win, while Labour have more support
spread across seats they could win. This tilts the electoral calculus in
Labours favour, and in terms of most-seats-won Labour still win ties in
the national vote share even after all their losses to the SNP.

The curious point may be, that had the Conservatives not opposed AV this
situation would be very different. Even had the Conservatives then
still not been able to get the number of total seats reduced and
reapportioned, they would have been in a much better position as they
could pick up second-preference votes to protect seats now made
vulnerable by the UKIP rise. We may well be looking at an election run
in 2015 that was lost in 2011.

UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 SEATS WON

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