Icelandic Elections Expected to Be Close

Published 8:00 pm, Friday, May 9, 2003

David Oddsson, Europe's longest serving prime minister, faces the strongest challenge of his 12-year rule on Saturday as Icelanders began voting.

Seven parties are contesting the elections.

But polls indicate that voters are torn between the economic stability provided by Oddsson's conservative Independent Party, and a fresh alternative to his autocratic style offered by the opposition left-leaning Social Alliance, led by charismatic Ingiborg Solrun Gisladottir.

Gisladottir, the 48-year-old former mayor of Reykjavik, wants to become Iceland's first female prime minister. She has won support from Icelanders who believe the government has grown slack on issues such as welfare, health and housing.

Political analysts predicted the Independence Party, and its government coalition partner the Progressive Party, would narrowly hold onto power, but undecided voters in Reykjavik saw the vote as a tough choice.

"Oddsson has given us stability for many years and maybe we should continue to support him, but there also needs to be change," said one such voter, Bjorn Gudmusson.

Oddsson is often called the most disliked politician in Iceland, but he has provided several years of steady economic growth.

Iceland's economy grew by an average of 5 percent for six consecutive years before dipping slightly last year. Inflation and unemployment also remain low, compared to elsewhere in Europe and the Nordics.

In addition, the Independence Party is trying to woo voters with a series of personal and business tax cuts. Personality aside, many voters clearly believe that Oddsson is the best person to lead Iceland as it diversifies further from its fishing dependency into power plants and aluminum smelters.

"You either like him or you don't, but he is a great leader, and that is recognized by everybody," Oddsson's finance minister, Geir H. Haarde, said Friday. But even Haarde admitted some surprise at how closely the polls have put the challenge from the Social Alliance.

Gisladottir said it is "time for a change. There are many issues in Iceland, social issues, that are not being dealt with."

Fishing reform is one of those issues in a country where more than 50 percent of exports come from the industry.

The Social Alliance has struck a chord with some voters by complaining about the current complex quota system in place for fisheries as unfairly distributing the wealth from the seas.

Even if the Social Alliance does not beat the Independence Party on Saturday, a closely run race is enough to change the face of politics in Iceland, where parties must have a majority in the 63-seat Parliament before they are offered the government by President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson.

No party since Iceland gained independence from Denmark in 1944 has won enough votes to form a government on its own, and the results of Saturday's poll are not expected to be any different.