“Wallace has potential to be as good/better than Berkman at this stage of Lance’s career. He just needs MLB experience/at bats.” — rick roberts.

Say what? Drawing comparisons between Brett Wallace and Lance Berkman? What about CJ and Ken Caminiti? Or Bagwell and Pence?

No, I’m not suggesting that any of the young guns will develop into MVPs or even perennial All Stars. But it is interesting to compare the early part of their careers with those of some Astros’ icons.

So take a look at the two stat lines to the right. One is Lance Berkman’s line after his callup in his first season (1999). The other represents Brett Wallace’s numbers so far in 2010.

If you’re like me, you wouldn’t have expected such a close comparison between the two players early in their careers. The big difference — and often the big difference between good players and great players — is the number of walks (which was the giveaway between the two stat lines.

Small sample size for sure, but Berkman didn’t begin his career by setting the world on fire either.

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Caminiti-CJ Comparison

Hitter

G

AB

HR

RBI

Avg.

OBP

K/BB

E

Caminiti

93

286

4

30

.227

.269

62/17

11

Johnson

84

284

8

42

.306

.338

72/14

13

Now, here’s an interesting comparison and one that may track for a few years.

Chris Johnson and Ken Caminiti provide similarities during their early days as professionals. The stats to the right show each player’s first two years as pros (CJ’s through Thursday night).

Both players joined the Astros at age 24. Caminiti became a regular at the hot corner for Houston in 1989, the year after the accumulated stats in the chart. But, looking at early returns, there are similarities, even with the number of errors.

I’d take another Cammy, if that’s how CJ turns out. What about you?

• •• ••• ••

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Bagwell-Pence Comparison

Hitter

G

AB

HR

RBI

Avg.

OBP

K/BB

Bagwell

570

2075

92

382

.309

.394

351/286

Pence

559

2165

90

306

.289

.338

416/159

No, I’m not suggesting that Hunter Pence is the next Jeff Bagwell.

But while you can see similarities in these stats of each player’s first four years, it’s also evident what separates a good player (Pence) from a great player (Bagwell): OBP. You see it in Berkman and you see it again in Bagwell.

Pitchers don’t like to pitch to dangerous hitters, often resulting in additional walks. However, it’s also important to realize that Bagwell’s stats here include his 1994 MVP year (39 HR, 116 RBI).

But if you extrapolate Pence’s first four years into a similar 12-year career, his numbers are quite remarkable: 360 HRs, 1,224 RBI, 212 SBs. He’s been consistent and he’s improved each year, likely reaching personal highs this season for HRs and RBI.

So how do the young guns measure up? It’s obviously too early to really consider Wallace and Jason Castro, but Johnson and certainly Pence are starting to establish a trend.

Man,do I agree with B McMillan. I think its one of the top staffs in NL.Keppinger is a very solid 2nd baseman,but I’d rather replace Blum with a younger guy.I think you work on the offense this off season. If you move Lee to 1st and sign 1 free agent you can improve the offense.You can go for power(Werth) or speed(Crawford).My preference is speed because it helps in preventing slumps.And it also improves your defense. I hope Wade and Drayton think they can win because San Diego proved you can.There is no guarantee in the rebuilding process.Oh and by the way what round was Oswalt drafted in?

Sir Arthur, I disagree with your statement that Pence is a “lousey baserunner.” While he is not a particularly good base stealer, especially given his speed, I think he does other things well. For instance, he gets from the batter’s box to first quite quickly, especially for one coming out of the RH batters box. He also gets from home to 2B very well on doubles and is good at going from 1B to 3B on singles, 1B home on doubles, scoring from 2B on doubles. In fact I think he is an above average baserunner except for base stealing and that he is improving in that regard.

In re: dropping Hernandez – I agree that he isn’t taking away AB from anyone at the current time, but he would seem a logical choice to drop from the 40 man roster if they re-activate Paulino from the DL. I am eager to see Paulino pitch a few innings. He was pitching so well when he was injured although his stat line doesn’t really show it because he had struggled before he began coming around to where he was dominating before the injury. If he could stay healthy and pitch at the level of his latter outings, he could be a huge boost to the rotation.

Chip, you are kidding aren’t you. I think the NICEST thing you could possibly say is that the jury is still out. Pence, yes, but honestly I personally predicted All Star credentials for Pence by now. Castro, Wallace and even Johnson are way to early to tell. Johnson has been a mess at third base. Castro and Wallace have not hit anything this year. I mean nothing. Wallace has 3 doubles and 1 HR in a 100 AB. That translates to 5 homers and 15 doubles for a full year. 1B is a power position. At this point we’d be better off training Lee to take over at first. Castro more of the same, but he is hitting .255 for the last 30 days. His rookie campaign has been mostly all defense. Bourn has come out of his slump, but a .260 leadoff hitter is not going to elevate this team to the top of the National League. I mean unless our pitching continues it’s INCREDIBLE RUN. The best pitching staff in the National League BY FAR. Just look at the numbers. However our hitting is still at or close to the bottom.

Lately it seems to be getting worse. We are winning though. Nobody knows how. Actually a lot like San Diego till they hit their recent slump. Kudos to Wade for assembling this outstanding pitching staff. Honestly, I think it is the best place to start. We can always pick up .250 hitters. Whatever you do Wade, please keep Keppinger and Blum.

I doubt that Biggio actually had 1870 PAs in his first 149 games. That’s over 10 per game. Your point is there, though.

The thing that stands out to me in the stats is that our current crop Ks a lot more than the old guard. while walking less. A good eye has impressed me, though, with Castro. Let’s hope he can start putting it together next year at the plate.

Is it just me or does Pence seem to be more patient at the plate in the past several weeks?

If guys like CJ have not focused on OBP in their development, then they’ve either ignored coaching or been done a disservice by their instructors.

One thing most of the best bats (including power hitters) in the game have in common is a high OBP. They create better opportunities for themselves by being patient. Not many guys post a high BA or SLG% without a solid OBP.

Chip, thanks for the comparison of Happ and Roy. So that’s 33-13 for the first two seasons for Roy (.717 winning percentage). Happ has not pitched as much due to being hurst 1st half this year but is 19-7 career(.730)…..but obviously a couple of years older than Roy at debut.

Good comparisons. Another one that would be interesting to see is J.A. Happ vs Roy Oswalt after their first 30 starts. Granted Happ is a lefty and Oswalt a righty but Happ at age 25 I think is better than what Oswalt was at age 25.

[Kris, happy to accomodate you with the comparisons, but I think you’d be disappointed. Roy was an instant success: 14-3 at 23 and 19-10 at 24. Happ didn’t make his debut until he was 24 and was 1-1 with only 35 2/3 IP when he turned 26. CB]

None of the new guys may ever be as good as Berkman, Bagwell, Caminiti or Biggio. The fact that we are even having this discussion shows how this team has turned around and how optimistic or hopeful we’ve become. In May this discussion would have been inconceivable because there was no hope. Now, we’re talking as if the sky’s the limit. The truth will probably be somewhere in between, but now is a lot more fun!

You guys crack me up bringing up the “old days” (but I was there too).

But it also is part of the reason that players like CJ haven’t really focused on OBP in their development – because “impact” is what moves you through the system and high OBP impact is great if you’re a CF or catcher or SS or maybe even 2B, but if you play a corner – IF or OF, impact is SLG and creating runs.

The second part of the lack of focus is the “system focus” – by that I mean what do the coaches and instructors in the system emphasize with developing players? BOS, TB, NYY and to an extent TOR emphasize pitch selection and getting pitch counts up – there are other organizations that do so at certain levels but they don’t drill it home like those 3 do. I don’t think that previous folks in the HOU system paid attention to walks nearly as much as to BA and SLG. Just going by evidence. I do see that changing to a degree at the lower levels now though.

Berkman always had a good eye and didn’t expand the strike zone unless he was in a slump. The fact that he hit a ton AND walked a lot were because of the hitter he was – not what the system made him.

I do think its getting better in the HOU system. And I do think that CJ and Pence can improve their OBP’s. Its just way harder to do at the MLB level in a short time span. And until neither is tearing the cover off the ball (like now), there is no sense rocking the boat. Wallace – I think due to his current struggles – is improving his eye/approach/pitch selection and its paying off.

One more point – I cannot stand when someone comments in a negative way about a 3-4-5 hitter taking a walk with RISP. And I’ve seen it hundreds of times (here and other blogs). I wish there was a way to educate people – especially baseball fans – on the value of pitch selection (and how freaking hard it is to do when a guy throws 92 with movement along with 3 decent off speed pitches!)

Becky – if you drop him now, he’s a free agent, as long as he’s not taking someone else’s reps – keeping Hernandez on the roster allows you to throw him in a trade later.

Pence is not a lousy baserunner. Granted, he has been a lousy base stealer in the past, but as noted above, he’s gotten much better. He is however very good at getting two bases out of a hit and scoring from first on a double. He’s very agressive. Every now and then his exuberance gets the better of him, but I’d much rather have Pence running around out there then a tentative, station to station guy.

I was going to overlook Rick Roberts quote, but since Chip has made it the topic of the day, I’ve got to chime in. First off Rick, if you end up being correct, then the deadline trade that brought Wallace will overshadow the Bagwell for Anderson deal in Astro history.

I’d rather compare minor league stats than a small sampling of major league play. And for me, the biggest stat at that age is OBP. Guys that have a good idea of the strike zone in the minors can usually be counted on in the majors, and over the long haul. So, to compare minor league OPB only:

Berkman, a remarkable .426, Wallace, a more than respectable .375.

Caminiti, a servicable .350, Johnson, a worrisome .315.

Bagwell, an almost remarkable .410, Pence, a solid .377.

I think in the long run, we can expect similar on base percentages from Wallace and Johnson. That’ll make Wallace a pretty good major league hitter, but he simply won’t approach what Berkman has accomplished. To expect the same would be unrealistic. At this point, I still think Johnson remains somewhat of a long term question mark, based on his minor league OBP. But I also think Pence still has room to grow. If he manages to approach his minor league OBP in the coming years, then we can expect better offensive stats across the board for him.

No – not at the 75% clip – but at least he is headed in the right direction. Chip I go along with your Bags thought – however, please, note Bags career SB % was 72% – not bad, but not as golden as we remember. But Bags was also great at taking the extra base and cutting the bases hard turning for 2nd or home.

Flash – Did you know that phones used to sit in one place in the home? That there used to be only 4 VHF and 2 UHF channels on the TV and nothing on during the summer to keep you from going outside and playing all day? That people used to write things down on a piece of paper slide it in an envelope and other people were excited to open it and read it days later? That we never knew our heroes had blemishes or sordid details on what those blemishes were?

I am old and getting crotchedy.

[…and there was something you had to put on the outside of that envelope to get it to its destination. Used to cost 10 cents…what was that again? CB]

No – not at the 75% clip – but at least he is headed in the right direction. Chip I go along with your Bags thought – however, please, note Bags career SB % was 72% – not bad, but not as golden as we remember. But Bags was also great at taking the extra base and cutting the bases hard turning for 2nd or home.

Flash – Did you know that phones used to sit in one place in the home? That there used to be only 4 VHF and 2 UHF channels on the TV and nothing on during the summer to keep you from going outside and playing all day? That people used to write things down on a piece of paper slide it in an envelope and other people were excited to open it and read it days later? That we never knew our heroes had blemishes or sordid details on what those blemishes were?

It appears to me that Pence is going to evolve into a 30HR 100 RBI guy. IMHO he has improved more since the Bagwell takeover than anyone else.

———————————————–

I agree. And the reason could very well be that from the start Pence showed the attitude of, like Bagwell, wanting to be not just good but great, playing hard, running hard, and doing the little things that elevate a player above the rest. In his second year he was already soaking up everything he could learn from Darin Erstad, who, while not being a great hitter, knew how to play the game.

I think it’s a given that Hunter would be the most likely to benefit from having Bags around.

What a blessing for this young team to be able to soak up Bagwells’s knowledge and leadeship abilities and influence this early.

Craig Biggio used to say “somebody up there hates us.” I think we can safely say the opposite now.

Back in my young day they would televise Astro games only on Sunday road games.Saturday was the game of the week. Doing the math ( about 13 Astro telecast a year) ouch! That`s when your radio was your best friend.

We were much more patient in the late eighties and early nineties. We were perfectly content to go stand and wait by the fax for that waxy, curled up, documment to come through. We were also content to give ball players time to adjust to big league pitchers. Now, not so much.

By the way, for some of you, a fax was a method of converting a paper document to an electronic image and transmiting over phone lines to a machine that would print it out on to something that was kind of like paper.

By the way, for some of you, “phone lines” were…oh never mind.

[Flash, some of us remember when there was no cable and only one baseball Game of the Week! CB]

I agree with Sir Auther. Pence is a lousey base runner. I am however, impressed with how the rest of his game is developing.

CJ should take about 1,000 barehanded ground (tennis) balls ala Adam Everrett each day this off season.

Caminiti took five years to become a better than league average offensive 3B. Raise your hand if you are going to be that patient with CJ.

[Flash, I think part of the answer to the “patience with CJ” may be determined in how quickly Wallace, Castro and others progress. Not all three can take five years or the Astros will be in trouble. CB]

Chip, this is an interesting and useful piece. I think many of us have a tendency to want to compare/contrast the young guns v. the icons, but we tend to remember the icons at their peak and forget their growing pains.

One Wallace/Bagwell comp is that neither was considered nor projected to become a power hitter at this stage in their career.

It is purely non-scientific, but Castro looks to me like he will become an above-average hitting catcher.

It appears to me that Pence is going to evolve into a 30HR 100 RBI guy. IMHO he has improved more since the Bagwell takeover than anyone else.

One comparison to Biggio – Wallace’s propensity to be HBP. Does anyone have a statistic of HBP between Wallace and Biggio at this point?

I am discouraged by the low walk rates of the current guys. This is a bad omen. A low walk rate implies that a hitter has not figured out the strike zone and you cant be a real good hitter until you figure out the strike zone. A few hitters have succeeded by hacking at everything….but not many.

Pence and Johnson strike me as good hitters who will never be great. Wallace and Castro I think have a better track record of understanding the strike zone and have the potential to really turn into stars.

Dan P – Q swings at the first strike (or first pitch) more than 75% of the time – that’s why he never walks.

Front Office changes – it would appear that EW wants to use R Bennett’s brains to find better trade candidates and MLB FA’s – as well as have the team better prepared for their opponents – good move? Probably!

Interesting that HOU is turning over the managers at AAA and AA in the same year – not very common!

[The manager turnover is interesting. The only thing more interesting will be to see who the replacements are! CB]

Chip, I notice that you include Hunter’s stolen bases in your list of potential career numbers. Please, someone tell Hunter that he shouldn’t be stealing bases. He’s got a terrible stolen base percentage: 54SB and 34CS for his career. He’s currently got 18SB and 8CS for the season. And although that’s a career high for him, that’s still not good. That’s only a 69% SB%. Statistically speaking, if a player doesn’t steal bases at a 75% clip, they are better off not stealing at all. And if you look at Hunter’s previous seasons, his SB% was a nightmare. Overall, Hunter hurts the team when he attempts to steal, and shouldn’t do it.

[Sir Arthur, this is a perfect area that Hunter could learn from Bagwell. Perhaps it’s not that Hunter should NOT steal, but he simply should become more choosy about WHEN he steals. Bagwell was excellent in knowing when he could take a base and when he shouldn’t/couldn’t. CB]

H – Had not thought about that – 8th place batters have the opportunity to walk a lot or be walked on purpose. I guess I have a couple questions / comments on that.

– What you said is intuitively true – but for instance Q normally bats in that spot and he rarely walks.

– Castro has always walked a lot even in the minors. Did he bat 8th in the minors or higher up in the order?

I guess I still think that a not patient 8th place hitter may get purposely walked more, but may free swing at other times – forcing the situation vs. risking having the pitcher bat with runners on. Interesting thought line.

[Interesting stats: In the 8th spot this year, LA has a .384 OBP to lead the NL. SD (.357), SF (.356), Chicago (.354) and Cincy (.345) follow. Houston? 15th out of 16 (.277). Only Pittsburgh’s .255 is lower. CB]

Its too early for me to compare these players to the icons.But I will say that I think Pence,Johnson and Bourn are going to be all star caliber players.I think Castro is going to be very good and perhaps all star caliber too. I think Wallace will be a good hitter eventually,but he just wouldn’t be my 1st baseman next year. His lack of power as a 1st baseman concerns me,but it could come later. I know this is off the topic but I really like Brad Mills as a manager.

Not taking anything away from any player – the “young guns” have played very well as a team! But…Cammy played 3B in the dome – faster track, which helps and hurts – but the E comparison favors Cammy significantly considering the stadiums – the performance with RISP favors Johnson – at this stage in their careers anyway. And yes, I would take another Cammy!!

Wallace – don’t even want to comment, because he should not be compared to Puma for a long time – Berkman was an elite hitter, top 5 in the NL for much of his career. Amazing results with RISP for most of that career as well – probably the all time best stat line with a runner at 1B in Astros history. Wallace has potential and a good eye (gets hit a LOT too!), I think he’ll do very well – lets not hold him up to the Berkman yard stick though!

Castro – potential to be a plus hitter for a catcher but is already a plus defender. And #8 hitters walk a lot (Dan P).

Pence – the BIG difference between HP and Bags is performance with RISP. In that area, HP has had his best 2nd half ever – which is a great sign, but prior to this year, he’s just been ok with RISP, even in his best statistical years. He is rising to the occasion though – which is fantastic to see! He can be an elite player, which is something I questioned until the past 2 months.

Great job as always Chip!

[H, these are not comparisions so much as to say Wallace will be Berkman, Pence will be Bagwell, etc. Mostly, it’s a snapshot to say, “don’t get down on Wallace or Castro or any of the youngsters, yet” because every player takes a time to ramp up. CB]

Another great post Chip. Very interesting to see the numbers for Cammy, Bagwell, and Berkman compared to the new guys on the team. It will be a lot of fun watching the younger guys and how they do in the next couple of years. It is so hard to tell what kind of major leaguers they will turn out to be but they compare pretty favorably to the guys from back then.

I’m interested to see if Wallace will transfer some of that lower body power into his swing. That guy is a beast and reminds me of Cammy when he first showed up in the bigs (body make-up that is).

I think we have to revisit this in a year and see. Interesting how none of the middle of the infield guys are mentioned that are rookies.

Reguardless, we are on the right track. I really think Wallace is going to turn into a real power guy. Can you imagine if the team played the way they are now all next year? How much better would all the stats look?

– OBP is a key stat and it does not tend to be a learned habit. The great ones – like Lance and Bags have a .080 – .100 spread between BA and OBP. Both of those guys stayed in that range or better for their careers – both having OBP’s just under .410 for their careers average about 110 walks per 162 games.

– Hunter and CJ have never shown a propensity for more than poor to mediocre OBP – walking less than 1/2 of the amount of those big guns.

– And before you say – well they are just not as dangerous as Bags and Lance – take a look at Castro. Even though he is only batting .213 with 2 dingers – he is walking almost twice as often as the much more dangerous Pence. This matches what he did in the minors – he is a patient hitter.

– Wallace is a fascinating case – even with a below Mendoza BA – his OBP is almost 90 points higher. Because he is patient? No, he walks less frequently than Hunter about the same as CJ. His OBP is decent because he is a ball magnet. He has been hit 7 times in 109 PA’s. No one else on the club has more than 3.

– So, Hunter is an improving player – and I like what I’ve seen the 2nd half of this year – but he will never be a Bagwell. Perhaps no one ever will.

– CJ has a chance to be a Cammy – who was no great guns in the OBP department either and who did not show great power until he apparently gave himself an assist. In the field – no one will match Cammy’s gun – but CJ just needs to get more consistent.

Castro and Wallace – way too early to say – but I can see Castro steadily improving. Wallace needs to get away from the K’s.