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\f0\b\fs24 \cf0 Earth's Hot Streak Continues with Warmest May since at Least 1880
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by Andrew Freedman\
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\cf0 June 13, 2016 - Another month, another shattered global temperature record.\'a0\
According to preliminary readings from NASA, May 2016 was the warmest such month on record for the planet, dating back to 1880. Global average surface temperatures were 0.93\'b0C, or 1.67\'b0F, above average for the month, beating out the old record, which was set in May 2014.\
This makes May the 8th straight warmest month on record in NASA's database. According to the World Meteorological Organization, it was also the warmest northern hemisphere spring on record, in part due to much milder than average conditions in the Arctic.\
If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also ranks May as the warmest such month, it would make it the 13th straight warmest month in NOAA's records, which has never happened before. (Although the 2 agencies use similar data, they differ in how they analyze global temperature measurements.)\
Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York has already predicted that 2016 will be the warmest year on record, beating the record set in 2015. Scientists at NOAA have also said such a record is likely this year.\'a0\
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\i \cf0 The End of the Streak?\
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\i0 \cf0 There are signs that the streak of record-breaking months is coming to an end, as ocean temperatures cool in the tropical Pacific Ocean and a La Ni\'f1a event develops.\'a0\
Although it came close, May was the 1st month out of the past 8 months that failed to exceed the 20th century average by at least 1\'b0C, or 1.8\'b0F. Until October, that 1\'b0 threshold had not been crossed since NASA's global temperature records began; it was then exceeded every month from October 2015 through April 2016.\
The threshold is relevant, since the Paris Climate Agreement specifies that countries should work to keep human-caused global warming to less than 2\'b0C, or 3.6\'b0F, above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100.\'a0\
Using pre-industrial temperature estimates (precise global temperature data from 1750 is not available), the October through April period may have reached that 2\'b0 threshold, albeit briefly.\'a0\
May's data means that the 12-month running average of global temperatures has now hit 1\'b0C, or 1.8\'b0F, above the 1951-1980 average, according to climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf.\
The Paris Agreement also contains language referring to the need to limit global warming to as low as 1.5\'b0C, or 2.7\'b0F, above the pre-industrial average. That was almost certainly reached during that January through April period.\
According to an analysis from the news and research group Climate Central, through April, the globe had come close to the 1.5\'b0 threshold.\'a0\
However, that analysis compared temperatures to the period from 1881-1910, which are the earliest reliable records from thermometers.\'a0 Actual pre-industrial temperatures are thought to have been even cooler than this baseline shows, which would put the warming above the 1.5\'b0 line.\
But global average temperatures are cooling down a bit, relatively speaking.\
Since February set a record for the most unusually mild month, with a temperature anomaly of 1.33\'b0C, or 2.39\'b0F, above average, the monthly temperature anomalies have declined by an average of 0.13\'b0C per month.\'a0 If this continues, then June is likely to be close to the warmest such month in NASA's database, but a slightly faster cooling would easily end the streak.\
The Japan Meteorological Agency, which also tracks global temperatures, ranked May as the 2nd-warmest such month on record, coming in just 0.01\'b0C cooler than May 2015.\
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\i \cf0 El Ni\'f1o on Top of Human-Caused Global Warming\
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\i0 \cf0 The record warmth during 2015-16 was due to a combination of human-caused global warming and a record strong El Ni\'f1o event.\
Now that a La Ni\'f1a is developing, though, global temperatures are likely to be\'a0dampened somewhat.\'a0 You can think of El Ni\'f1o as a driver pressing the gas pedal on a car all the way to the floor, while La Ni\'f1a is more like a driver still pressing the gas, but at a more moderate (and less dangerous) pace.\
However, even La Ni\'f1a years have been warming as a result of long-term global warming, so it's possible the developing La Ni\'f1a could set a record for the mildest La Ni\'f1a year.\
For climate scientists, what matters is the long-term trend, over decades to centuries. That makes monthly records much less significant, compared to the steady increase in temperatures throughout the 20th and 21st centuries.\
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\cf0 mashable.com/2016/06/13/may-warmest-month-global-warming/#hLsjLjIoa8qS}