North Korean missile test proves US is well within range

Updated
Mon 31 Jul 2017, 8:34 AM AEST

Photo

The North Korean missile flew for 47 minutes before splashing down into the ocean.

Reuters: KCNA

The missile fired in North Korea's latest test may have landed in the Sea of Japan but it proves the nuclear-armed country has weaponry that could "basically put all of the United States within range".

And it shows the rogue state has the power to make a "surprise launch of the ICBM in any region and place at any time", according to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Analysts were watching closely as the numbers around the launch rolled in and have since concluded major cities, including Los Angeles and Chicago, could be reached by a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

"This is only the second test of this system. Our estimates from the first one had the missile going about 6,700 kilometres, which put Alaska within range," Shea Cotton from the James Martin Centre for Non-proliferation Studies in California told AM.

"Our estimates with this one [are] that if it was fired within full range, ... this would go about 10,000 to 11,000 kilometres and at that point they've basically put all of the United States within range".

David Wright, a physicist and co-director of the global security program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said if reports of the missile's maximum altitude and flight time were correct, it would have a theoretical range of at least 10,400 kilometres.

In the event of an attack, the distance a missile could travel would depend on variables such as the size and weight of the warhead that would be carried atop it.

Dr Wright published this table:

City

Distance from North Korea

Range of missile toward city

Los Angeles

9,500 km

11,700 km

Denver

9,800 km

11,400 km

Chicago

10,400 km

11,100 km

Boston

10,750 km

10,750 km

New Yok

10,850 km

10,850 km

Washington DC

11,000 km

10,900 km

(Source: Union of Concerned Scientists)

What has North Korea said?

North Korea's official KCNA news agency reported that Kim Jong-un personally supervised the midnight launch of the missile on Friday night and said it was a "stern warning" for the United States that it would not be safe from destruction if it tried to attack.

"The test-fire reconfirmed the reliability of the ICBM system, demonstrated the capability of making a surprise launch of the ICBM in any region and place any time, and clearly proved that the whole US mainland is in the firing range of the DPRK missiles, [Mr Kim] said with pride," KCNA reported.

DPRK is short for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

OK, so what happens now?

This test, and the one on July 4, means North Korea is theoretically capable of striking the US mainland.

In terms of moving from advanced testing to successfully carrying a warhead, another issue is whether or not a loaded missile could survive re-entry into the Earth's atmosphere.

Mr Cotton said there was every reason to believe North Korea had the ability to design a missile that could pass through the upper atmosphere without damage to the warhead.

"In March 2016, they tested a heat shield that would go on the end of one of these missiles and protect the warhead and what they did was they took the heat shield and put it under one of their missile engines and just cooked that heat shield," he said.

"Afterwards they released a bunch of pictures of it and showed that it held up just fine.

"We're pretty sure they have the technology to make a re-entry vehicle at this point."