To avoid the sort of impacts estimated in the box opposite,
all nations will have to find ways to reduce their contribution
of greenhouse gases. The Climate Change Convention signed in Rio
places the onus on everyone to limit carbon dioxide emissions,
although the developed countries are expected to take the lead.
While the implementation of this agreement is not yet clear, we
have argued in this chapter that industrialized and developing
nations can significantly contribute to efforts to halt global
warming at relatively low cost at least at the outset of such a
programme.

Thailand's CO2 emissions from fuel combustion will
double over the next decade, from 24 to nearly 50 million tonnes
annually. An aggressive demand side management effort in the
power sector could reduce emissions by 2.5 million tonnes
annually by the year 2001. The average cost of conserved carbon
for these measures would be about negative US$1901tonne.

Thailand's nascent efforts in the area of electricity
conservation can provide lessons for other developing countries.
Clearly, in order to initiate effective DSM efforts in developing
nations, industrialized nations will have to provide significant
technical and financial assistance. Prime vehicles for providing
this assistance are the multilateral development banks, which
already shape the power infrastructure in developing nations. The
banks must internalize the concepts of integrated resource
planning and demand side management if they are to play a
positive role in this regard. They will then be in a sound
position to introduce loan recipients to these techniques and to
assist them in developing national strategies for energy
efficiency and carbon conservation.

Climate change impacts in Thailand

In Thailand, the warming under GISS 2 x CO2 climate
la climate model scenario run assuming a doubling of CO2
levels] is equivalent to a 3°C to 6°C increase in current mean
annual temperature, a projection that is broadly in agreement
with other GCMs [general circulation models]. There are, however,
substantial differences between GCMs concerning changes in
precipitation, which vary widely from normal but generally show a
reduction under the GISS 2 x CO2 scenario. Northern
Thailand may be drier in most of the months except in July which
is currently a dry period and this would appear to benefit
cropping. However, August and September would experience only
between 73 per cent and 89 per cent of present rainfall. Other
GCMs, however, do not indicate such a reduction in rainfall and
it is important to emphasize this uncertainty. Under the GISS 2 x
CO2 scenario winters are also drier but as very little
rain is normally expected during that time of the year the
adverse implications may be less.

Two particular aspects of the Thai economy were studied with
respect to potential impacts from these projected changes in
climate effects on rice production in Ayuthaya Province and
effects of sea-level rise in Suratthani Province.

The CERES model was run for a 25 year set of daily climate
variables (19641988). Model outputs for the current climate
substantially exceeded observed values for transplanted rice and
were lower than expected for yields of direct seeded rice. It was
not possible, however, to conduct an adequate validation of the
model and to re-tune it to observed data for Thailand. As a
result, the consequences should be treated with caution.

The results indicate that under a change of climate projected
for a doubling of CO2 main crop rice cultivation in
Ayuthaya Province would increase in the order of 8 per cent.
These benefits would, however, be, in most cases, quite marginal
because they are substantially less than the existing
year-to-year variation. The modelled yields were also
characterized by marginally greater yield variations. Off season
rice, planted from mid-December to early February, exhibits a 5
per cent increase in average yield under the GISS 2 x CO2
climate with concurrent increases in variation of 3-40 per cent.
However, little value can be placed on these results because of
lack of model validation. Indeed the results are not consistent
with those for Chiang Mai which were validated against observed
data, and which indicate a decrease in rice yield of about 5 per
cent under the GISS 2 x CO2 scenario.

Thailand has approximately 2940 km of coastline, much of which
contains important economic activities such as shrimp farming and
rice farming. The study considered the potential impact of a 0.5
m and 1 m rise of sea levels in the Suratthani Province in
southern Thailand. This region is characterized by a sand dune
line which may mark an ancient shoreline and has a consistent
elevation about 1 m above present sea level. It was therefore
used as an indicative boundary to the area potentially affected
by a 1 m sea level rise. The suggestion is that 7400 ha (37 per
cents of the study area would be affected by inundation under a 1
m sea level rise. About 4200 ha of productive agricultural land
and large numbers of shrimp ponds would be lost.

EGAT (Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand). 'General
Information on Power Development Plan (PDP 92-01(1))'. Prepared
by the System Planning Department. Bangkok. April 1992

Faruqui, A and E Haites. 'Impact of Efficient Electricity Use
and DSM Programs on United States Electricity Demand and the
Environment.' In conference proceedings from Demand Side
Management and the Global Environment. Arlington, VA. April 1991

Monenco Consultants & Associates. 'Demand Side Management
Working Paper No. 3.' Under contract to the National Energy
Policy Office. Bangkok. July 1991

Nadel, Steve, 'Utility Conservation Programs' in State of the
Art of Energy Efficiency: Future Directions. Edited by Edward
Vine and Drury Crawley. American Council for an Energy-Efficient
Economy. Washington, DC. 1991

TDRI (Thailand Development Research Institute). 'Energy and
the Environment: Choosing the Right Mix.' Prepared by T
Chongpeerapien, S Sungsuwan, P Kritiporn, S Buranasajja, and
Resource Management Associates for the 1990 TDRI Year-End
Conference: 'Industrialising Thailand and Its Impact on the
Environment.' Bangkok. 1990

TDRI (Thailand Development Research Institute). Updated
projections of CO;! emissions made by the Natural Resources and
Environment Program. 1991