Copa America Quarterfinal Preview: USA vs. Ecuador

USA won Group A as the +125 favorites, ahead of Colombia despite losing to them in the opening game 2-0. USA will now face Ecuador in a quarterfinal match on Thursday, June 16th in Seattle, WA. Shockingly the US have used the same lineup in all three Copa America matches so far, first time since the 1930 World Cup (via @PCarrESPN). Head coach Jurgen Klinsmann is often criticized but he’s done what’s necessary to get them to the knockout round. He’ll need to make an adjustment for tonight’s game, as defender DeAndre Yedlin will miss out due to a suspension.

At both 5Dimes and BetUS, the large majority of moneyline tickets are coming in on USA, but the line has actually moved towards Ecuador. Less than 10% of bettors are on the draw, which appears to be a great contrarian bet for tonight considering the reverse-line movement.

At CRIS, the percentages are a little more even with the USA getting 48% of tickets, Ecuador getting 40%, and the Draw getting 12%. Again, the draw isn’t a popular bet there despite the match being an essential pick ’em, another great contrarian spot.

At William Hill, Ecuador are receiving 60% of the money wagered to win at +175 odds. USA are receiving just 30% of bets at +175 odds, which is surprising considering the majority of bettors across Nevada usually back the US squad. Just 10% of the money wagered is on the draw at +225 odds, which may be the smart bet here considering how even these teams are. However, reminder that if the game does end in a draw after 90 minutes, it will go directly to penalty kicks with NO extra time whatsoever. This may motivate both teams to end the game in 90 minutes rather than risk the luck associated with penalty kicks. Even so, I’ll fade the public and take the draw here.

As for the total, most books opened at 2.5 with the under heavily juiced. Since then, most books now list the total at 2, meaning books and bettors alike are expecting a low-scoring game. A 1-1 final is where I’d lean in this one based on the market.

USA opened the tournament at +700 odds to win the title but have since moved to +1500 despite now advancing to the quarterfinal stage. Despite winning their group, USA has a tough matchup vs. Ecuador, who finished second in Group B. Peru’s huge upset over Brazil improved most teams’ chances to win the title, but not the USA. Colombia actually gets an easier matchup by finishing behind USA, and will face Peru in the quarterfinals. Because of these quarterfinal matchups, USA finds themselves with much longer odds than Colombia.