Archive for the ‘craig counsell’ tag

Hi there. Its time to write about the “silly season” of baseball, now that they’ve announced the finalists for each of the major awards.

This year, I changed the way I have traditionally written this post and did not bother to check the pulse of the awards (or look at Players of the Month) until season’s end, since they’re generally useless for predicting these major awards. So no running narrative of who was “in the lead” for the MVP at the all-star break.

Here’s my predictions for how the awards will go. Important note: This is not necessarily how I believe the awards should go, it is how I think the current electorate will vote … though I do tend to believe that the MVP award in particular is not just about naming the WAR leader in the league.

The writers have to submit their ballots at the end of the season; I finished this post in early October but waited until the awards season to arrive to publish it. Thus, it contains no inclusion of any post-season accolades or accomplishments since the votes were already in before the playoffs started. Therefore, I’ve left in my gross errors once the 3 finalists were announced.

Comeback Players of the Year: goes to Greg Holland and Mike Moustakas. I thought Ryan Zimmerman would be a lock for this … but Holland makes a lot of sense too.

BA Executive of the Year: Brian Cashman of the Yankees …who then went through a bit of a charade with the team on whether he was coming back. This may have been more of an award for his amazing work LAST year, when he flipped players at the deadline for a ton of prospects, got one of the back in FA (Aroldis Chapman) and then suddenly made the playoffs one year after selling.

J.G. Taylor Spink Reporter of the year: Sheldon Ocker, who covered the Indians for more than 30 years before retiring in 2013. Um … how is a *retired* sports writer getting this award? Why am I tracking it here with player awards?

AL MVP : I’ve got Altuve over Judge in a race that shouldn’t be that close. Altuve was dominant all year, holds a sizeable advantage in bWAR (more than a win) over any other AL hitter and is the heart of the best team in the league. Judge would be the winner had he had a 2nd half similar to his 1st half, and was the clear winner of the “Narrative” conversation. However, Altuve’s defensive additions and Judge’s distinct lack of “clutchness” (he was dead last or close to it in terms of clutch hitting). Judge just loses out at doing what just a couple of players have ever done; win the RoY and MVP in the seam season (Fred Lynn, . Outside the top two, I think it could be any one of a slew of guys. I think Trout‘s injury costs him in the race but he still is named on a bunch of ballots, but not enough to overcome Betts (who gets votes as Boston’s best player). I think Jose Ramierez should be in the discussion as Cleveland’s best hitter, but he toils in anonymity for the most part and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sale/Kluber slide into 5th. Also, don’t sleep on Andrelton Simmons, who has become a force on both sides of the ball this year. With the finalists announced; I did get the top 3 correct at least and feel like i’ve got the right order.

NL MVP: I think Stanton‘s monstrous season (he has nearly 30 more homers than the next best NL hitter) puts him over the top in a year when the best NL teams (Washington, Los Angeles in particular) do not have dominant offensive players leading the way and making their case. Washington’s best WAR position player is Rendon, who wasn’t even named an All-Star, and the Dodger’s best position player by bWAR is Justin Turner, who isn’t exactly mentioned in the MVP talks. I think the 2nd and 3rd place votes go to the clear leaders of the two surprise wild card teams (Arenado and Goldschmidt), then 4th and 5th go to Rendon and Kris Bryant in some order. Bryant has been amazingly quiet despite continuing to be a top player and being the defending MVP; perhaps its Cubs fatigue after their amazing win last fall. Joey Votto fails to get mentioned despite his amazing season toiling for the last place Reds. With the finalists announced; I was shocked that the voters gave Votto the votes to get into the top 3; again, more evidence of the electorate getting “smarter” and appreciating the best performances. I still think it goes Stanton 1st, Goldschmidt 2nd, Votto 3rd.

AL Cy Young: Despite Sale‘s 300 strikeout season, Kluber leads the league in most every pitching statistical category and should win this award. Sale got blasted in one of his last starts of the season, possibly changing some voter’s impression of him at the death of the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the voting is really close though. Past the top two it could be anyone: Verlander stayed in the same league and caught on fire upon his trade to Houston, Luis Severino will get the attention of the many NE-focused voters. I have no idea who might come in 5th; Carrasco has been great, but it could also be some random closer. With the finalists announced; I did get the top 3 right at least but feel like its going to be really, really close between Sale/Kluber.

NL Cy Young: Both the leading candidates missed time due to injury, but Scherzer only missed a couple of starts and has sizeable lead on Kershaw in both bWAR and in total Ks. I could see either guy eventually winning though; you can make arguments for either. Kershaw will have many more innings than he has last year, when he still managed to come in 5th in the vote, and he’ll have a significant lead in ERA. Past these two, there’s a slew of good hurlers who deserve recognition. Strasburg has put his name firmly in the argument with his scoreless inning streak, and ironically as of mid-September neither Stras or Scherzer was the bWAR pitching leader on his own *team* (Gio Gonzalez was). Former Nat Farmhand Robbie Ray has had a great season, as has Greinke, as has Alex Wood and his gaudy W/L record. 3/4/5 could go a number of ways. And don’t forget Kenley Jansen, who gave up about as many earned runs this year as he did unintentional walks. Some even mention Jacob deGrom as a back of the ballot guy, but I think there’s enough voters impressed by Jansen’s season that he’ll make it in there. With the finalists announced; I got the top 3 right and think i’ve got the right order too.

AL Rookie: No surprise here; if Judge doesn’t win unanimously then someone needs their vote revoked. More interesting will be predicting the 2nd and 3rd place guys. Did Benintendi (the pre-season favorite) do enough? Did Gurriel and his Rookie of the Month award lift him? Are there any pitchers worth mentioning? Keith Law mentioned Oakland’s Matt Olsen as a good 3rd place player but he didn’t play nearly as much as these others. Rafael Devers? Who knows. With the finalists announced; I missed on Mancini versus Gurriel, but again that’s your 3rd place winner in this one-horse race.

NL Rookie: As with Judge, this should be unanimous as well, with Bellinger setting a rookie HR record for the Dodgers (who are easily the most illustrious of teams when it comes to rookie history). Does pre-season RoY favorite Dansby Swanson even get mentioned on ballots after his struggle of a 2017 season? Who comes in third in the NL? With the finalists announced; I missed on Bell versus Freeman but either way they’re playing for 2nd place.

AL Manager: The Twins went from 100 losses to the playoffs; I think Molitor wins this narrative-driven award thanks to this feat. Franconia might get it b/c of Cleveland’s amazing winning streak. With the finalists announced; Missed on Hinch versus Girardi, but does not change my prediction.

NL Manager: I can’t see how Baker does NOT win this award,given the ridiculous injury issues he worked around and the whole-sale bullpen change at mid-season. With the finalists announced; Baker does not even make the top 3. I guess my homer-ism missed out here. I got just one of the 3 finalists right, with the voters picking Dave Roberts and Bud Black instead of Baker and Counsell. Re-guessing now that I see the finalists I think Bud Black is the new favorite, with Arizona’s Lovullo 2nd and Roberts third.

With more Wild Cards, get ready to see scenes like this more and more. AP Photo via infopop.cc

Here’s a weekly wrap up of Nats-related news items, along with other general interest baseball articles, with my thoughts as appropriate. (Note: these news items are more or less chronological in the Saturday-to-Friday blog post news cycle i’m using, with me going back and adding in clarifying links as needed).

Great news: Wilson Ramoswas rescued with apparently on 11/11/11 no bodily harm and no ransom paid. This is a great end to this saga, which really could have gone so much worse for Ramos and his family. Mark Zuckerman reports on the details of the rescue.

Interesting read from Jon Paul Morosi, who interviews an anonymous american player about life in the Venezuelan Winter League. The player wanted to stay anonymous, but he didn’t seem to really say anything of note that would require protecting his identity. Better safe than sorry though.

Joe Sheehan, writing for si.com, mentions both Bryce Harper and Sammy Solis in his AFL review of players to watch on 11/10/11. He saw Solis’ 4-inning/9 K game and was impressed. I would be to if a 6’5″ lefty could throw 94mph and punch out guys at will. That’s Solis’ “ceiling.”

As if it wasn’t enough to do analysis of the current FA crop, Buster Olney apparently was bored and did a year-too-early analysis of the 2012 free agent crop. I only post this because it corresponds with one of my frequent matras about this off season; don’t waste your FA dollars competing for 2-3 front-line pitchers. Wait for 2012 when there’s 10-12 good candidates.

For Yu Darvish fans, yet another scouting report. And another one. Tom Verducci posted a very well done piece demonstrating how most pitchers from NPB hit “The Wall” 2 years into their MLB careers, also noting that there has never been a single Japanese pitcher to make more than one all-star team. Fangraphs.com has a bunch more articles on Darvish from a few weeks ago, and BaseballAmerica has some as well for you to find at your leisure. Side-story: In one of the weekly chats last week (can’t remember which one) a very good point was made about using previous Japanese pitchers as comparisons to Darvish. The chat-host flat out called it racist. I have certainly drawn those same comparisons, looking at player’s birth place (as a way of determining NPB-graduates) and asking whether or not there’s ever been a huge success story for a Japanese-born pitcher. I don’t view this as racist; just factual. When I point out that there’s never been (for example) a French-born star baseball player, there isn’t a subsequent implication that “there fore all French baseball players are crap.” Therefore I will continue to point out that Darvish, as a NPB-graduate, comes with risk no matter what his scouting report or genetic make up happens to be. And my stance is that the risk involved isn’t worth the likely 9-figure price tag.

Wow the Marlins are doing some serious FA inquiries. Rumors this week that they’re talking with Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, Mark Buehrle AND new Cuban FA Yoenis Cespedes. Those players alone would probably represent something in the range of $400M of guaranteed contracts. I just have a really hard time believing that this club, which has sucked revenue sharing money for years and easily transferred it into the owner’s pockets, will suddenly do an about-face and actually spend the money they need to be competitive. Really hard time believing it until I see it. Jeff Passanagrees with me.

Thanks to DistrictOnDeck for transcribing a few points of the Mike Rizzo–Jim Bowden conversation on mlb radio this week. I can’t help but taking note of the glaring discrepancy in Rizzo’s double-speak when it comes to pitching. Despite having his 1-2-3 already being set for the 2012 rotation (Strasburg, Zimmermann, Lannan) and re-signing Wang this week, Rizzo still says that at the same time he wants to “bring in another starter” AND have the likes of Milone/Peacock/Detwiler compete for the 5th starter. Well, which is it? Because if you buy another FA starter, there is no 5th spot available. Not unless we’re about to see a non-tender for John Lannan.

Excellent post from David Schoenfeld, in the wake of the Ryan Madson $44M contract being withdrawn, about the value of closers and the need to have a marquee closer at all in the modern game. In the post, he lists the named closers of the past 10 WS winners, and his point is this; its littered with names of guys who were clearly not elite-level closers.

Interesting opinion piece from Jim Breen on FanGraphs about Hard-Slotting. Breen posits the same opinion i’ve read over and over from Keith Law in the anti-draft slotting camp; they both claim it will “drive players to other sports.” They use names like Zach Lee, Bubba Starling, and Archie Bradley as recent examples of guys who were legitimate 2-sport stars and were “bought” out of football commitments at major Div-I universities by virtue of the large bonuses they received. Here’s the problem I have with this stance: where’s the proof? I just have a hard time believing that these athletes, when presented with a choice, would have a larger-than-slot bonus make up their minds. You’re either a baseball-first player or not, irrespective of your talents and desires in a secondary sport. Nowhere in these arguments have I ever seen an interview or a survey where these two-sport stars are actually asked the basic question, “Would you be playing college football if your guaranteed baseball bonus was smaller than what you got.” Its all assumptions, and this article is no different (posting the assumption that Lee “would not be playing baseball right now if there was a hard-slotting system.”

Good information to know from Dave Cameron‘s fangraphs chat: the BABIP on ground-balls is .235 for ground balls, .130 for fly balls, .720 for line drives. Cool.

Joe Lemire writes a great piece highlighting the safety issues and general decline of Venezuelan baseball over the past decade, in light of the Ramos kidnapping.

I first took note of Tax issues during last off-season’s Cliff Lee sweepstakes, noting that he faced perhaps a 12% difference in salary by taking a deal to stay in Texas versus New York. Eric Seidman looks at the same issue and more with his great article in FanGraphs titled “Jock Tax.” Conclusion; taxes for athletes are ridiculously complex.

Phillies sign Jonathan Papelbon to a 4 yr/$50M contract. Well, I guess they’re not going to be re-signing Ryan Madson. The Phillies resign Papelbon basically for the same money they had been paying Brad Lidge, so its not going to directly lead to an increase in their payroll. But as someone who openly questions the value of closers in general, I have to criticize the move as wasting money on a player they could replace from within for a fraction of the cost. David Schoenfieldagrees with this sentiment.

Adam Kilgore has a nice little primer on the upcoming GM and Owners meetings in Milwaukee. He does some quick Nats off-season planning analysis, and I agree with him that it’s looking more and more like the team is going to pursue someone like Mark Buehrle or Roy Oswalt, meaning that the Detwiler/Peacock/Milone battle for 5th starter may not actually happen. This would imply the team is looking to trade these guys, presumably for CF talent. Lots of moving parts.

Si.com’s Jon Heymanbroke news on 11/14 from the GM meetings that prospective Houston Astro’s owner Jim Crane has accepted the condition of moving his team to the AL west as a prerequisite to ownership approval. Interleague blurring, here we come. ESPN reports that this MLB “demand” was a condition of the sale of the team to Crane. You have to love Bud Selig and his hard-line ways, given his precious anti-trust exemption.

The Nats outrighted bothCole Kimball and Corey Brown from the 40-man on 11/16/11 and lost Kimball to Toronto. My thoughts here along with a healthy discussion.

Another Collective bargaining agreement fall out: elimination of compensation picks for type-B free Agents. Probably a wise move; type B free agents are usually not valued nearly as much as a supplemental first round pick, leading to hijinks in the draft system by teams who covet these picks. Frankly, the revampment to the system that needs to be done is the reliever classification. How is Darren Oliver, a 41-yr old loogy possibly a type A free agent?? That classification immediately eliminates half the league from even looking at him, and probably the other half as well (meaning they’d be giving up a 2nd round pick at worst). The union has to be upset at the way their veteran players have their job movement limited by this classification. Ironically, about 5 minutes after I wrote this, Buster Olney also used Oliver as an example as to why the system needs to change.

In the “no surprise here” category, Hanley Ramirezisn’t keen on switching positions should the Marlins, who have been woo-ing every FA out there this off season, somehow acquire Jose Reyes. Ramirez is pretty much the ultimate non-team player and the Marlins have spent far too long coddling him and cow-towing to his demands. Good luck EVER getting him to agree to anything that isn’t Hanley-first.

Ex-Nats rumors: Jason Marquis apparently has interest from his “hometown” NY Mets for a 2012 contract. I say that’s great news for the Veteran hurler, who had to be dismayed when he broke his leg in a contract year. Even if its a non-guaranteed deal, or for significantly less money than he got from us two years ago (2yrs $15M), he deserves another shot.

Interesting side effect of MLB’s obscure player transaction rules: by virtue of the Angels only sending Mike Trout down for 17 days instead of 20, the demotion still counted towards his 2011 service time. This has two implications: Trout officially now has served his rookie season and won’t be eligible for the 2012 Rookie of the Year award, AND the Angels now are in serious jeopardy of exposing Trout to eventual “Super-2” status. The first point is a slight shame for Trout, who seems set to rocket into prominence in this league based on his minor league production. The second point is “shame on the Angels” for not knowing the rules; if Trout is as good as promised, this mistake could cost them millions and millions of dollars. WP Dave Sheinin did a great study about Stephen Strasburg‘s super-2 status, comparing it to Tim Lincecum‘s, and concluded that avoiding super-2 for superstars can save a team almost $20Million. Seriously.

Why is this news? The Nats and Ryan Zimmerman, a player who is signed through 2013 havn’t talked about a contract extension. So what? This shouldn’t be news until NEXT off-season. I don’t care that Kemp signed a big deal, or that Braun got locked up for a few more years, or that Tulowitzki signed a ridiculous deal through 2020. Just because YOU jumped off a bridge doesn’t mean I have to. If i’m the Nats GM, I wouldn’t sign on for an 8year contract, let alone a 5year, for a guy who has missed significant chunks of the last few seasons through injury until I saw him back at the 155-160 game level. He’s only 26, but has already had three major injuries (hamate bone surgery, left labrum and this year’s abdomen surgery). Plus he missed the last couple weeks of the 2010 season with a muscle strain. That’s a lot of medical on a young guy. Maybe the musings of some other Nats bloggers on the topic could have some credence.

Its official; two wild cards coming in 2013. Judge Landis is rolling in his grave. Actually I’m somewhat ok with this news; I think more needs to be done to mitigate the possibilities of Wild Cards winning the World Series. If a play-in round is introduced that thins your pitching staff and makes it harder to advance, i’m all for it. I’m not a 100% traditionalist but I do like to see teams that win the most regular season games actually competing for the World Series, instead of the St. Louis Cardinals sneaking in as a last-second wild card and winning the championship.