Two Polls Dash Cunliffe’s hopes

by Cameron Slater on December 3, 2012 at 8:00am

In the space of two weeks and two polls David Cunliffe can kiss goodbye any thought of a challenge in February. John Key will also be relieved that it looks like voters prefer David Shearer and not David Cunliffe.

Overall Labour and National are about where they were at the beginning of the year…so Labour hasn’t really made many gains despite a gaffe prone year from National and their more inept ministers.

Still David Cunliffe’s supporters will be very bitter and likely to cause even more trouble in the ranks.

THANK YOU for being a subscriber. Because of you Whaleoil is going from strength to strength. It is a little known fact that Whaleoil subscribers are better in bed, good looking and highly intelligent. Sometimes all at once! Please Click Here Now to subscribe to an ad-free Whaleoil.

“Still David Cunliffe’s supporters will be very bitter and likely to cause even more trouble in the ranks.”

That’s already evident on “other blogs”. First the Tamihere rejoining was seen angrily as him being promoted while Cunliffe was demoted. And then the polls added despondency to that as they realised they are losing the battle – but they sound like they will fight to the very bitter end.

Wallsingham

THEY?

fapfap

The world’s best sysop (self rated) is having a hissy at the hate blog as hooters continues to bait them mercilessly.

Apolonia

National still has the problem of who will their coalition partners be in 2014?

Troy

It’s worrying. That the chunderous Liabours and toxic Greens gain the treasury benches because the Nats haven’t got it together yet for 2014 is too scary to contemplate. I suspect that the Maori Party will hang in with the Nats in any case and they may hold the balance.

stinkeye

Winnie will go for whoever gives him the most baubles, maybe conservatives will leech ACT votes and win Epsom too. Plus the Maori party might even stay.

Gazzaw

If you read the Horrid, listened to Red Radio & even ZB you would have thought that labour had already won the next election. The poll results headlined on all three.

The MSM are gagging for NEW news. For years now they’ve been waiting for Labour to start looking like a contender. So every time labour even stumbles in the right direction through sheer statistical variance, they’re so excited to be able to report something other than the status quo.

greybeard

Yes. This is known as ‘The Black Caps’ syndrome: a prolonged period of failures followed by a single success, a sequence which repeats indefinitely.

Macca

SERIOUSLY – what have Labour done since the election to increase there vote? They are bereft of any policy and talent! The only thing they are capable of is negative politics of envy – surely, any one with half a brain will be able to see through both them and the melons by the next election! Even the media might wake up to the above fact and come to their senses!

Magor

the problem here is that the labour voter does not have even 1/2 a brain – our media is left leaning socialist – a shame really but that is the way it is..

Neil

That’s no way to talk about Cameron….”our media is left leaning socialist” tut tut!!

Magor

“Like”

Magor

ha-ha!!

Hagues

They have offered the bribe of “affordable homes” – free stuff is always worth a point or two in the polls.

owl

I am surprised people don’t read the polls more analytically. Auckland and Wellington are Labour beds so a random 1000 voters around NZ doesnt really mean anything.

With exception of National Labour and Greens – all other parties have to win an electoral seat. Based on these numbers none reach the 5%. That leaves the Maori seats and Maori based parties always go with the biggest majority at election time because they want to be on the benches. (Good strategy)

Any one seat winner e.g. Act/United always goes with the majority winner so they can also be on the benches.

Watch Greens attack Labour (see NZ Herald today article by R Norman). If Labour thinks the Greens will be a submissive partner they need their head read.

This actually poor poll for Labour as their future partner Greens is actually growing and will want to dominate the political feild.

And here is the final point – Who has ever said Greens and Labour have something in common. They don’t – talk about a myth becoming reality.

I am going to prove my point.
Greens says there is a manufacturing crisis
Labour says there is a manufacturing crisis

Greens says NZ should stop manufacturing/mining/drilling/film production all together and reduce our population to 2.9M people. (Their population policy)

Labour – do yourself a massive favour and distance yourself from the Greens asap if you want to gain the benches again.

These are great polls for National

greybeard

I would like to add this: it would be very much in National’s interest to take the Epsom electorate seat as well as the Epsom party vote: the association with John Banks has been 100% negative.

If National held Epsom then that would be one less ‘balance of power’ problem for them. In my opinion, John Key showed very bad judgement when he played pre-election games with Banks. National, with a bit more effort, could have had an outright majority in 2011 by themselves.

Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

Gondolf (aka greybeard), National taking Epsom, won’t give them an extra MP, but if Banks wins and if by any chance ACT polls, 2% – 3%, it could give them couple of more MPs which could make all the difference in 2014 when the naked Emperor will be fighting the evil forces in a do-or-die battle.

greybeard

In 2011, if Banks had missed out in Epsom, and Goldsmith had won, and the party vote stayed about the same, then National would have had that electorate MP. ACT got no list seats in 2011. As I see it, this result would have been less trouble for National.

Hagues

Seriously??? One more electorate seat and one less party seat for National, ie no gain for them but loss of coalition partner Act under your scenario. This would mean National would have been beholden to the Maori Party to govern or even maybe on the opposition benches.

greybeard

You may well be right, I am a novice at this sort of thing. How I calculated it was: National’s 2011 party votes entitled them to 59 seats, being 42 electorates and 17 from the list. ACT got an electorate seat, no list seats.
Total seats in parliament = 121.
If ACT lost Epsom to National, then National’s allocation of 59 seats would be 43 electorates and 16 list seats. ACT get nothing, total seats in parliament = 120. Therefore National still need a coalition partner, but one less to consider than before. How does that sound ?

Hagues

Well I’m not convinced one less party = less trouble. Maori Party would still become kingmaker or Nats have to turn to Winston. Either case would be a lot more trouble in my books.

Mostly_Harmless

National needs more potential coalition partners, not less. The more there are, the more choice they have.

GregM

Very true Owl. If they polled say 30 people per electorate it would give a more accurate picture.
This poll is a dead cat bounce, that’s all.

Neil

Lovely analogy…..read it right on lunchtime…lol!!

Magor

only if we can get this view out in public…, just saying!!

Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

OK Tories. All the radio stations and newspapers and leftie blogs are celebrating David Shearer and Labour’s greatest victory yesterday. However, let us not try to find anything positive for the naked Emperor and his cronies here bros. The poll very clearly shows Emperor is toast in 2014 simply because of the fact that National’s total votes will be equaled by the toxic coalition of Labour and Greens. Winnie the poo will make it over 5% for sure on election night. So even with the help of ACT, Dunne Deal and Maori party 3 MPs, Emperor won’t make it to the Government….which is a real tragedy.

Hazards001

Unless he brings Winnie bak to the side of light.

Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

Emperor’s strategy seems to be closing his eyes and hoping that Winnie the Poo won’t make it back to the parliament. He even said that this morning in TV. That is a bad strategy as Winnie the Poo will definitely make it back. I think a segment of Labourers vote strategically for Winnie to get him over 5% for sure.

Hazards001

Sigh…

owl

I have just re-read Russel Normans attack on Labour in the Herald

I rest my case if Labour and Greens think they are bed buddies.

Greens want to totally destroy the Labour Party – they are easy pickings for them. If Greens get to 20% then it will be curtains for Labour.

Neil

So we’re having an election now? These surveys are about as useful as a gelding in a paddock of mares….

In Vino Veritas

Spot on Neil.

Phar Lap

TVNZ told the lie that 100,000 houses by Lie-bour was the circuit breaker.,for that lying parties rise in the polls.David Parker the wee rat ,who is their finance guru,the guy who couldnt get his company’s record straight ,even stuffed up on the number of houses that might be built.The MSM are all lying douchebags in their desperation to get has beens or never wases onto our treasury benches.

Wallsingham

Polls are historically deceptive. Jobs, housing, health and education still reflect the floating vote. Leadership reflecting factions within Labour is a decisive (and devisive) factor. National by any other name is perceived as tired, unimmaginative and appendage of Warner Brothers. Wouldn’t place too much emphasis on what peeps say to pollsters with three point what percent error!