Sunday, January 31, 2010

With that in mind, I decided to look
through pro-football-reference.com's
database to see how many playoff games went to overtime since
1970 (the year the NFL and AFL merged). Here's what I found
(winning teams are listed in bold):

Notice that from 1993-2010, 12 of 16 games (75%) were won by the home
team. Which suggests that playing at home is a much more important advantage
than winning the coin toss.

From 1970 to 1998, 10 of the 269 playoff games (3.7%) went to
overtime. From 1999-2009, 14 of the 98 playoff games (14.3%) went
to overtime. Clearly, overtime games have become much more
common; this issue isn't likely to go away.

This suggests it would be interesting to look at the rate of
overtime games in the regular season during this era. However, I
gathered part of this data "by hand"; there are way too many
regular season games to look at unless the process is fully
automated. I will eventually get to it, but not before the off
season.

The result of the first overtime drive for games from the 2001
season to present
are detailed
here.

Interesting: SRS picks the Saints. Probably because (as
mentioned
in the
previous power rankings) the Colts have a lot of close wins,
and a couple big losses when they pulled their starters. Also,
SRS is unweighted, so the Saints early big wins count equally
with later closer games.

This is the first time
since Super
Bowl XXVIII that there's been a 1-seed vs. 1-seed matchup.

On the other hand, the Saints are the first playoff team the
Colts will face with a legitimate passing threat. The Colts had a
middle-of-the-pack
pass
defense in the regular season, so the Saints may at least have
a chance to keep up once the scoring starts.

The Colts' 2-score win returns them to the #1 spot (they were
#1
in week
14, and #2 for most of the rest of the season).

The Saints gain some power on their win over the Vikings, but
(since earlier games have lower weight), it also costs them power
by giving many bigger wins in their 13-0 start less weight.

Perhaps inspired by last years' Cardinals, the Colts seem to
have been holding back in the regular season. Of their initial 14
wins, they had 8 by single-digit margins. They had 4 wins by more
than 12 points, but all early in the season, and all against
relatively weak teams (the Cardinals, Seahawks, Titans, and Rams).

Is there a way the Saints don't get crushed by the Colts in the
Super Bowl? The Saints were only able to keep pace with the
Vikings in the NFC Championship game thanks to 2 interceptions and
3 recovered fumbles. The Colts likely aren't going to be so
careless.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

The Jets played their game pretty well. But the Colts never seem
to give up or panic when they find themselves in a hole, and a
first-half lead of just 11 points is just not enough. Unlike the
Bengals and Chargers, the Colts were able to keep pressing and keep
scoring, and the Jets limited offense just wasn't able to keep up.

Vikings @ Saints (APR, SRS, Line)

This really should've been the Vikings game. The Saints were
mostly ineffective on offense, generating just two drives longer
than 37 yards. But turnovers (two interceptions and three lost
fumbles) gave the Saints short fields for a couple touchdowns, as
well as denying Ryan Longwell a chance at a game-clinching field
goal at the end of regulation.

The Colts will likely stick to the same game plan they used
against the Ravens: establish an early lead, take away the running
game, and grind the clock.

The Jets will likely stick to their same game plan too.
They've made it this far with just Sanchez throwing just 38 times
in two games. But the Colts defense will certainly be scheming to
put Mark Sanchez in a position to throw the ball.

The Colts light end-of-season load and bye week for the
wildcard round of the playoffs could be a major advantage for them
as well. The Jets have been playing for their playoff lives for
the last four games.

It's something of a shock to me that the NFC Championship game
features the Vikings and Saints—the way both teams finished
the regular season, I figured one if not both would be
one-and-done in the divisional round.

One big factor in this game is going to be the Saints'
offensive line. If Drew Brees is running for his life like Tony
Romo was last week, it's going to be very hard for the Saints to
keep up with the Vikings.

The Jets retake the top spot, thanks in part to the Cowboys'
complete inability to stop the Vikings' pass rush. The Panthers
also benefit indirectly via their week 15 win over the Vikings.

The Jets were joined by the Saints this week as the only
winning teams not to score first. The Jets are also joined by the
Colts as the only winning teams not to score at least 33 points
total.

The Packers are still the only losing team that scored more than 14
points. Jets @ Chargers joins Packers @ Cardinals as the only
games in the playoffs with more points scored after halftime than
before.

This has been a pretty weak series of playoff games so far. Six
of the eight games played have been over by halftime. Five games
have ended with the winning team up by at least three scores.

The full, 32-team power rankings return, so you can see that
the Rams and Lions are still locked in a battle for last place.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Rumors of the demise of the Saints offense are apparently greatly
exaggerated. Like the Packers last week, the Saints shredded the
Cardinals secondary early and often (though without the Packers'
early stumbles). Unlike the Packers, the Saints' defense was able
to get pressure on Kurt Warner. And, as you saw, Warner doesn't do
well under pressure, especially playing from behind.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)

This was a masterful game plan on the part of the Colts, executed
to near perfection. On defense, the Colts took away the Ravens'
main offensive weapons: Ray Rice was held to just 67 yards rushing,
and Willis McGahee was a non-factor. On offense, the Colts
established a two-touchdown lead by the end of the first half, and
spent the second half grinding out the clock, and keeping the Ravens
away from the endzone.

Cowboys (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)

How did the Cowboys ever get to 11 wins with such an awful
offensive line? Romo was sacked 6 times, constantly harrassed—it's no
wonder the Cowboys couldn't sustain a drive all game long, and after
the Vikings got their second touchdown, the game was never in doubt.

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)

As advertised: Sanchez threw for just 100 yards, Green and Jones
ran for 169 yards, and the defense held the Chargers to just 14
points. How is this the same team that couldn't beat the Falcons in
the Meadowlands in week 15?

Joe Flacco is probably going to need more than 4 completions
for 34 yards to beat the Colts. Even if the Ravens manage to
establish another quick 14-point lead, the Colts have shown more
than once they can come back from a long ways down, and come back
to win.

On the other hand, the Jets' best strategy is probably the same
as last week: pass a little, run a lot, play good defense. But
the Chargers' offense will be harder to stop than the Bengals'.

The last time the Saints scored more than 17 points was
December 13th (week 14), when they travelled to Atlanta to play
the Falcons. They have to be feeling a little uneasy facing a
team that just put up 51 points on their opponent.

On the other hand, the Cardinals have to be thinking all they
need to do to advance is A) keep scoring like last week, and B)
get a few stops on what has been lately a very weak offense.

The Cowboys @ Vikings is an interesting matchup. On the one
hand, the Cowboys have exactly one notable win outside the
division (@ the Saints in week 15). On the other hand, the
Vikings have been losing lately even to bad teams (though all on
the road).

The Cowboys seem to have all the momentum going into this game,
but you have to figure that Favre and the Vikings, playing at
home, are going to give it everything they've got. Certainly, the
Vikings have much more to lose: after such high expectations,
one-and-done in the playoffs could spell the end of Favre's
career, and probably get Childress fired as well.

The Jets were the only winning team that didn't score first
this week. The Jets were also the only winning team that didn't
have at least 24 points by halftime, and the only winning team not
to score at least 33 points total.

The Packers were the only losing team that scored more than 14
points. Packers @ Cardinals was the only game this weekend with
more points scored after halftime than before.

The Cardinals move up so they are now ranked above another
(eliminated) playoff team. Again, much like last year.

Every team in the AFC East drops at least one spot from last
week, although the Jets actually increased their power index a tiny bit
(just not nearly enough to stay ahead of the Cowboys).

None of the teams below the Dolphins changed order from week 17 (and
all are out of the playoffs), and so have been elided in this
listing.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Wow... maybe the Jets are actually good? I didn't think the
Bengals would make it past the divisional round, but I figured they
could take care of the Jets. And if the Bengals could've kept their
defense off the field more, maybe they could have.

But it was the Bengals offense that struggled. So many times
receivers were dropping balls, Palmer was overthrowing them, or they
were just flat-out not on the same play. Mark Sanches threw fewer
total passes (15) than Carson Palmer threw incompletions (18).

Eagles @ Cowboys (APR, SRS, Line)

Were the Eagles secretly mediocre? Looking back on their regular
season schedule, they only beat one team (the Falcons) with a
winning record, and were 0-4 against teams that qualified for the
playoffs.

This game furthers the case that the Eagles are just not ready to
play at the highest levels of the NFL. Other than that early
touchdown, their offense didn't have a drive longer than 32 yards
until garbage time. And thanks to a combination of offensive
turnovers and bad defense, They gave up a back-breaking 27 points in
the second quarter, and never came close to being in the game
again.

Ravens @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

The Patriots looked unprepared for this game right from the
start. The Ravens' first play from scrimmage was an 83 yard
touchdown run; the Patriot's first drive ended with negative yards
and a lost fumble that the Ravens quickly converted to another
touchdown. The Patriots never got close after that.

Packers (APR, SRS) @ Cardinals (Line)

In a lot of ways, this was a replay of the Packers @ Steelers game
from week 15. Two offenses shredding their opposing defenses, and a
final late clinching score. If the Packers ever figure out a pass defense, they'll be a real powerhouse.

Saturday, January 9, 2010

When power index values are computed for the purposes of weekly
power rankings and picks, the values for each game are weighted so
that older games matter less than more recent games.

Since it makes more sense to evaluate upsets in the context of the
whole season, all games are given equal weight for purposes of this
post. This means the matchup ratio (ρ) given below will usually
not be the same as the one posted when the game was originally
picked.

Also, in order to avoid some of the weirdness associated with the
end of the season (e.g., teams resting in preparation for the
playoffs), the games in the final week of the season were not
included in the power index computations.

Determining the Top 10 Upsets

Once the power index values have been computed for each team, the
full season of games was examined, and all games where the
lower-ranked team won were selected. The "upset games" se were then
sorted by the ratio of the teams powers (higher divided by lower),
and the games with the biggest ratios selected for this list.

Dishonorable Mention: some games that missed the cut

There are some notable upsets outside the top 10 that deserve at least
a mention:

Week 13: The Patriots travel to Miami looking for their second
road win of the season, and come away denied.

Week 9: The Packers give the Buccaneers their first win.

Week 13: The Steelers can't stop the Raiders in Pittsburgh.

Week 13: The 49ers can't get a win in Seattle.

Week 11: The Bengals faltering offense can't outscore the Raiders.

The Top 10 Upsets of the 2009 Season

As determined by the unweighted APR power indexes from week 16.

Week 11: Browns 37, Lions 38 (ρ=1.6037)
This looks like more of an upset now thanks to the Browns
finishing on a 4-game winning streak. But as an example of utter
ineptitude on the part of the losing team, it surely qualifies.
Is there another example, ever, of a defense getting called for
pass interference on a Hail Mary?

Week 16: Vikings 30, Bears 36 (ρ=1.6171) The
Vikings were still alive for the #1 seed going into this game, and
needed a win to maintain control over the #2 seed. Instead, they
lost their third road game in four weeks, and only clinched a bye
thanks to a stunning collapse by the Eagles in week 17.

Week 10: Broncos 17, Redskins 27 (ρ=1.7181) This
was the game Chris Simms had to finish because Kyle Orton got
hurt. This was also the game where the Redskins tried their "no
way that's going to work" fake punt and it worked. What's worse, this
wasn't even the biggest upset of the year for the Broncos.

Week 14: Steelers 6, Browns 13 (ρ=1.7331)
It was late in the season, the Steelers were coming off a couple
embarrassing losses, but they were still in the thick of the
wildcard race. All they needed to do to get back on track for the
playoffs was to take care of business against the 1-11 Browns.
Instead, the Browns sacked Roethlisberger eight times, the
Steelers could only put up 6 points, and they went home with a
third embarrassing loss.

Week 15: Raiders 20, Broncos 19 (ρ=1.7529)
The in spite of a 2-5 stretch, in week 15 the Broncos were still
alive for the playoffs. Taking care of the 4-9 Raiders at home
would be a good first step in getting things turned around.
Instead, the Raiders got 241 yards rushing, and even JaMarcus
Russell managed to throw a touchdown.

Week 3: Redskins 14, Lions 19 (ρ=1.7964)
The Redskins actually had a pretty decent defense this season,
although this game is not a good example. Matt Stafford threw for
241 yards and a touchdown, Kevin Smith ran for 101 yards, and it
was just too much for the Redskins' struggling offense to
overcome.

Week 11: Steelers 24, Chiefs 27 (ρ=1.9538)
The Steelers were terrible on special teams this year, and really
struggled on defense when Troy Polamalu was out. Both weaknesses
contributed to the Steelers biggest upset of the season.

Week 6: Eagles 9, Raiders 13 (ρ=2.0861)
The Eagles' week 17 shutout was not a total fluke. This is
another example of a game where they just couldn't get much going
offensively. This was one of just two games where the Raiders
didn't give up at least 16 points.

Week 17: Chiefs 44, Broncos 24 (ρ=2.1695)
Either Jamaal Charles (259 yards rushing in this game) is one of
the break-out stars of the 2009 season, or the Broncos are really,
really bad at run defense. We'll have to wait until September to
find out about Jammal Charles, but there's no question the Broncos
playoff hopes were snuffed out in part because they couldn't stop
Jamaal Charles, Michael Bush, and Darren McFadden (the last two
doing most of the damage for the Raiders in game 6, above).

Week 16: Buccaneers 20, Saints 17 (ρ=2.5171)
For much of the season, the Saints plowed through their
competition like they were playing at another level. But as the
season wore on, outcomes started getting closer and closer, until
finally, with the #1 seed still in play, they lost to one of the
worst teams in the league.

Eliminated Games

The following games were elminated from contention because one team
pulled its starters, or was indirectly affected by such a team.

Week 10: Jaguars 24, Jets 22 (ρ=1.6275) A
"win" over the Colts made the Jets look better than they really
are. This was something of an upset, but it doesn't belong in the
top 10.

Week 17: Colts 7, Bills 30 (ρ=1.7270) How much
did it matter that the Colts were resting their starters? This
was only the fifth game of the season the Bills managed to scored
more than 17 points.

Friday, January 8, 2010

This is using a new margin power function (different from the
function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are
not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Final AP rankings will be added after they are released.

Rank

Team

W-L

PowerIndex

This week

1 (-)

AlabamaAP=1

14-0

8.6491(LW × 1.107)

won by 16vs Texas

2 (↑1)

FloridaAP=3

13-1

7.4805(LW × 1.168)

won by 27at Cincinnati

3 (↓1)

TexasAP=2

13-1

6.5225(LW × 0.878)

lost by 16at Alabama

4 (↑3)

Virginia-TechAP=10

10-3

5.9896(LW × 1.100)

won by 23at Tennessee

5 (↑3)

TCUAP=6

12-1

5.8100(LW × 1.078)

lost by 7vs Boise-St

6 (↑4)

Ohio-StAP=5

11-2

5.6282(LW × 1.061)

won by 9at Oregon

7 (↓3)

Texas-TechAP=21

9-4

5.6127(LW × 0.973)

won by 10vs Michigan-St

8 (↓3)

OklahomaAP=rv(90)

8-5

5.3889(LW × 0.942)

won by 4at Stanford

9 (↓3)

ArkansasAP=rv(3)

8-5

5.3337(LW × 0.968)

won by 3at East-Carolina

10 (↑2)

MississippiAP=20

9-4

5.2837(LW × 1.037)

won by 14vs Oklahoma-St

11 (↑3)

Boise-StAP=4

14-0

5.2563(LW × 1.087)

won by 7at TCU

12 (↑9)

IowaAP=7

11-2

5.0337(LW × 1.146)

won by 10at Georgia-Tech

13 (↑3)

NebraskaAP=14

10-4

5.0107(LW × 1.067)

won by 33vs Arizona

14 (↓3)

Penn-StAP=9

11-2

4.9742(LW × 0.958)

won by 2at LSU

15 (↓6)

OregonAP=11

10-3

4.8239(LW × 0.908)

lost by 9vs Ohio-St

16 (↑20)

BYUAP=12

11-2

4.7202(LW × 1.324)

won by 24vs Oregon-St

17 (↓4)

Georgia-TechAP=13

11-3

4.6411(LW × 0.936)

lost by 10vs Iowa

18 (↓1)

LSUAP=17

9-4

4.5010(LW × 0.992)

lost by 2vs Penn-St

19 (↓4)

CincinnatiAP=8

12-1

4.4646(LW × 0.941)

lost by 27vs Florida

20 (↑4)

PittsburghAP=15

10-3

4.4552(LW × 1.065)

won by 2at North-Carolina

21 (↓3)

Miami-FLAP=19

9-4

4.3745(LW × 0.965)

lost by 6at Wisconsin

22 (↑9)

GeorgiaAP=rv(7)

8-5

4.3531(LW × 1.141)

won by 24vs Texas-A&M

23 (↓4)

StanfordAP=rv(67)

8-5

4.1467(LW × 0.930)

lost by 4vs Oklahoma

24 (↓1)

AuburnAP=rv(8)

8-5

4.1196(LW × 0.984)

won by 3vs Northwestern

25 (↑5)

WisconsinAP=16

10-3

4.0787(LW × 1.069)

won by 6vs Miami-FL

26 (↑3)

ClemsonAP=24

9-5

4.0627(LW × 1.026)

won by 8vs Kentucky

27 (↓2)

West-VirginiaAP=25

9-3

3.9846(LW × 0.961)

lost by 12at Florida-St

28 (↓8)

Oklahoma-StAP=rv(40)

9-4

3.9287(LW × 0.884)

lost by 14at Mississippi

29 (↑16)

Florida-StAP=rv(6)

7-6

3.9260(LW × 1.249)

won by 12vs West-Virginia

30 (↓2)

North-Carolina

8-5

3.9133(LW × 0.973)

lost by 2vs Pittsburgh

Other notable teams:

33 (↑1)

USCAP=22

9-4

3.8352(LW × 1.031)

won by 11vs Boston-Coll

34 (↑14)

RutgersAP=rv(37)

9-4

3.7716(LW × 1.239)

won by 21vs UCF

35 (↑24)

Air-ForceAP=rv(3)

8-5

3.7666(LW × 1.384)

won by 27vs Houston

36 (↑6)

ConnecticutAP=rv(5)

8-5

3.7633(LW × 1.137)

won by 13vs South-Carolina

37 (↓15)

Oregon-StAP=rv(89)

8-5

3.6879(LW × 0.871)

lost by 24at BYU

38 (↑12)

UtahAP=18

10-3

3.6788(LW × 1.227)

won by 10at California

39 (↑24)

NavyAP=rv(85)

10-4

3.6205(LW × 1.392)

won by 22at Missouri

41 (↓3)

Cent-MichiganAP=23

11-2

3.4578(LW × 0.985)

won by 3at Troy

43 (↓8)

ArizonaAP=rv(5)

8-5

3.3083(LW × 0.897)

lost by 33at Nebraska

54 (↑12)

Middle-Tenn-StAP=rv(4)

10-3

2.9123(LW × 1.135)

won by 10vs Southern-Miss

Pick Standings

Bowl games were picked
in this
post.
Unlike last
year, there were only a handful of split picks. But like last
year, APR did the worst:

Line:

18-16

(52.9%)

SRS:

17-17

(50.0%)

APR:

16-18

(47.1%)

Unanimous:

13-14

(48.1%)

Comments:

Once again, a pretty unremarkable record for bowl game picks.
At least APR did better than 36% this year.

One thing that has occurred to me lately is that a
neutral-field game is essentially a road game for both teams. And
one thing I've really noticed this year is that there are some
otherwise good teams that just tank on the road. Something else
to look at in the off-season.

Colt McCoy going out early in the BCS Championship Game has to
be a little bit of a bummer for Alabama. Beating Texas when they
are playing their backup quarterback just isn't the same. At
least they didn't lose to Texas playing their backup
quarterback.

Lowest ranked teams to win a game: Idaho (#91) in the
Humanitarian Bowl, and Wyoming (#86) in New Mexico Bowl.

This week features 3 rematches of games from the final week of
the regular season. There's been 10 "wildcard rematch" games
going back to 1988, but this is the first year there's been more
than two the same season. Home teams are 8-2 in the playoff round
of these contests.

In spite of APR's current ranking, the Jets are probably one of
the weakest playoff team this year. The good news for them is
they're matched up against the Bengals, whose low ranking is well
deserved.

Don't read too much into the Packers' win last week. The
Cardinals demonstrated very well last year they are able to play
quite well in the playoffs, even in spite of very questionable
play in the regular season.

The Ravens start another playoff run on the road at the AFC
East division champions. But the Ravens aren't nearly as strong
on defense as they were last year, and they're going to have a
harder time advancing this year.

I figured the Cowboys playoff hopes were done after their loss
to the Chargers made them 2-3 for their last 5. Somehow they've
managed to claw their way back and win the NFC East. But there's
still got to be some serious questions about what playoff teams
(if any) they can beat.

But with the Eagles coming off a loss that cost them the
division, a bye week, and means they will be on the road in the
playoffs until they are out, they're perhaps the one team the
Cowboys can be confident of beating.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Starting with week 4, I included a contrast of APR's power rankings with ESPN's weekly power rankings. This is the final installment of the series for the 2009 season, along with a summary of the teams that appeared on these lists over the regular season.

Teams that ESPN likes more than APR, week 17:

Cardinals (+11)

APR had the Cardinals as high
as #4
in week 13 after they beat the Vikings. Since then, they had an
embarrassing loss to the 49ers, a couple lackluster wins over the
Lions and Rams, and finished up with a no-show game against the
Packers. Even if you discount that final game, it hasn't been an
impressive home stretch for the Cardinals.

Colts (+10)

APR doesn't take into account when teams rest their players. All
it knows is the Colt lost to a very weak Bills team by 23 points.

Teams that APR likes more than ESPN, week 17:

Panthers (-15)

I will admit the Panthers are not the #3 team in the league right
now. But they did show some definite improvement down the stretch,
and probably deserve to be ranked higher than #18, where ESPN has
them.

Buffalo (-11), Jets (-11)

On the other hand, APR clearly has the Bills, and particularly the
Jets ranked way too high. As I mentioned several times through the
season, APR seems to give a single big win too much weight. It's
something I will try to fix over the off-season.

Teams that ESPN liked more than APR, regular season

Giants (7 weeks)

The Giants got off to a 5-0 start, and ESPN was in love. The
trouble was 4 of those teams (Redskins, Buccaneers, Chiefs, and
Raiders) were all dogs, and APR knew it. The Giants won just 3 more
games after that.

Bengals (4 weeks)

The Bengals look a lot like paper tigers this season. Seven of
their wins are by a touchdown or less. That means (like in the loss
to the Raiders), all it takes for them to lose is one late game
error. It's not the sign of a team that will do well in the
playoffs.

The Saints losing ways finally costs them the top spot. And
thanks to another division winner laying down for them, the Jets
take it over.

And somehow the 6-10 Bills have climed to #13, mostly on the
strength of their "big win" over the Colts.

The 49ers make it to 8 wins, for the first time since 2002.
The Falcons have back-to-back winning seasons for the first time,
ever. And the Titans are the first team (at least since 1977)
that started 0-6 and made it to 8 wins.

The Chargers finish the regular season with an 11-game winning
streak. The Jaguars and Broncos both finished with 4-game losing
streaks.

The NFC wildcard teams (Packers and Eagles) both have an 11-5
record, which is the same or better as four division winners
(Patriots 10-6, Bengals 10-6, Cowboys 11-5, and Cardinals 10-6).

The Panthers are the highest ranked team out of the playoffs.
And, like last year, the Cardinals are the lowest ranked playoff
team, and the lowest ranked team with a winning record.

The Steelers are the only team to win a playoff game last year
and not qualify for the playoffs this year. The Colts and Vikings
are the only returning teams that were one-and-done last year.

APR vs ESPN

I will include the week 17 results in the season-ending wrap up
post. It seems likely the Jets, Panthers and Bills will get a
mention.

Once again, the Broncos run defense fails to show up. Jamaal
Charles got 259 yards rushing, with four other Chiefs adding in
another 58 yards. Kyle Orton's 3 interceptions helped seal the
deal. And for the second season in a row, the Broncos are knocked
out of the playoffs on an embarrassing final game blow-out.

Split Picks (APR 1-6, SRS 1-6, Line 6-1)

Colts (APR, SRS) @ Bills (Line)

Once again, Curtis Painter comes in and does his one-man disaster
act. An interception, a lost fumble, and 4/17 for 39 yards. I
thought the Colts were going to try to maintain a little momentum
going into the playoffs?

Patriots (APR, SRS) @ Texans (Line)

You could chalk this up to a Patriots team that didn't have
anything to gain by winning, but if so, why did Tom Brady play until
the Patriots final drive? I think they would've liked to get a
third road win this season, but just couldn't.

Saints (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)

Saints were resting their starters, Brees didn't play a down.

Packers (APR, SRS) @ Cardinals (Line)

The Cardinals pulled their starters early too, with Kurt Warner
playing for just two drives. But even in the early going, the
Cardinals looked flat, and the Packers looked like a team that
wanted to win. The Cardinals will have no excuse if they come out
flat again next week.

Jaguars (APR, SRS) @ Browns (Line)

The Jaguars offense sputtered early, with just one drive longer
than 34 yards in the first three quarters. Harrison and Cribbs
didn't have as big a day as the last two weeks, but enough to build
a 20-3 lead going into the fourth quarter. The Jaguars offense
finally did get started, but couldn't put up enough points to
overcome the hole they'd left themselves in.

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)

Did someone forget to tell the Eagles they would have a bye week
if they won? The Eagles started at or inside their own 20 until
late in the game, and could never sustain a drive, only once going
more than 47 yards.

Steelers (Line) @ Dolphins (APR, SRS)

The Dolphins were in this for much of the game, but hurt greatly
by the loss of Chad Henne after the first half. Pat White came in
in relief, and then Tyler Thigpen when White was hurt. Thigpen
had a chance to lead a comeback, but a couple of late interceptions
sealed the win for the Steelers.