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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TRIPOLI 000212
NOFORN
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR NEA/MAG, INR
E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/10/2019
TAGS: PGOVPRELLY
SUBJECT: GENERAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS SHUFFLES CABINET, POSTPONES WEALTH
DISTRIBUTION PLAN
REF: A. 08 TRIPOLI 106 B. 08 TRIPOLI 166 C. TRIPOLI 186 D. TRIPOLI 40 E. 08 TRIPOLI 896 F. 08 TRIPOLI 688 G. TRIPOLI 208 TRIPOLI 00000212 001.2 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: J. Christopher Stevens, DCM. REASON: 1.4 (b), (c), (d)
1.(C) Summary: The General People's Congress - Libya's version of a national parliament - ended its annual week-long session in Sirte March 5, approving a cabinet reshuffle that placed intelligence chief Musa Kusa at the helm of the foreign ministry and postponing Muammar al-Qadhafi's controversial proposal to disband government ministries and distribute the country's oil wealth directly to the people. Instead, the GPC consolidated some ministry-equivalents while committing wealth redistribution and economic reform to "further study". The GPC approved a national budget of USD 39 billion, a 30-percent increase over last year's budget. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Burlesconi was on hand to witness the ratification of a "friendship and cooperation" treaty that requires the Italian government to subsidize $5 billion for infrastructure projects in Libya as reparations- for the 30-year Italian occupation of Libya. Delegates did not discuss a draft constitution, which Muammar al-Qadhafi's son Saif al-Islam al-Qadhafi has championed. The cabinet shuffle ousted some reform-minded luminaries from their position, retained other advocates of rational planning, but left the once-imperiled Prime Minister-equivalent al-Baghdadi al-Mahmoudi in place, suggesting that reforms will come more slowly than once thought. However, as the September 1 anniversary marking the 40th year since the coup that brought al-Qadhafi to power draws closer and Libyans hold positions of international import, the leader has several opportunities to make surprise changes of direction. End Summary. SAME FACES, FEWER CHAIRS: CONGRESS GIVES CABINET LINEUP
2.(S//NF) The annual session of the General People's Congress - the top level of the multi-tiered Jamahiriya direct democracy scheme (ref A) - wrapped up on March 5 leading to a major cabinet shuffle and a reorganization of some of the General People's Committees (Ministry-equivalents). The biggest change came at the General People's Committee for Foreign Liaison and International Cooperation (MFA-equivalent) with former head Abudlrahman Shalgam stepping down to take the PermRep spot at the UN and External Security Organization (ESO; CIA-equivalent) Musa Kusa stepping in to fill the empty FM slot. Shalgam is expected in New York this week to take up the mantle of UNSC President while Kusa expects to maintain both spy-chief and chief-diplomat roles. Despite year-long murmurs that he was due to be sacked (ref B), Prime Minister-equivalent al-Baghdadi al-Mahmoudi retained his top spot and his former deputy Mohammed Ali al-Hweij was picked for the Secretary of the new Committee for Industry, Economy, and Trade formed from the merger the old Industry and Mining Committee and the Economy, Trade, and Investment Committee. Ali Essawi, former head of the Committee for Economy and Trade was left without a posting - a move the French embassy claims is related to accusations of corruption. (Note: Essawi twice attempted to resign last year over disagreements with al-Mahmoudi but was convinced to stay. End Note) The youth-oriented Basic Education Committee and the Higher Education Committee were combined into the Committee for Education and Scientific Research to be chaired by Abdelkabir Mohammed Fakhri while the Committee for Youth and Sport was abolished. Still, working-level contacts in ministries remained uncertain of what the shake-up meant, with several contacts in the former Committee for Culture and Information telling APAO that they didn't know who they worked for but expect they will be absorbed into MFA's existing cultural office - and therefore under the control of Musa Kusa. See para 6 for the full list of cabinet positions. WEALTH DISTRIBUTION PLAN TO GET "FURTHER STUDY"
3.(C) In the wake of broad opposition to the ill-defined wealth distribution mechanism proposed by al-Qadhafi (ref C), the GPC decided to postpone action pending "further study". A January meeting of the GPC was cancelled to give budget-makers time to revise their figures after the precipitous fall of oil prices and the spread of the global financial crisis gave both technocrats and proponents of the distribution scheme pause (ref D). xxxxxxxxxxxx recently told us he had been asked to sit on a commission charged with hammering out specifics of the reform program. The status of a "shadow" committee -organized last year by Saif al-Islam TRIPOLI 00000212 002.2 OF 003 al-Qadhafi and featuring Central Bank governor Farhat Bengadara and Ali Essawi - both of whom voiced opposition to the distribution plan on live television (ref E) - its mission to develop practical steps to reform are unknown. The Congress settled on a budget of over 49 billion dinars (39.3b USD) - a 30-percent increase over FY08. Government salaries will make up 9 billion dinars (7.2b USD), public expenditures another 4.8 billion (3.8b USD) and development projects taking the lion's share with 21.5 billion dinars (17.2b USD). ITALY PAYS COMPENSATION FOR COLONIAL WRONGS
4.(C) Italian PM Berlusconi was in Sirte on March 2 (along with the diplomatic corps flown in as well as spectators) to witness the ratification of the Italy-Libya "friendship and cooperation" treaty signed last August (ref F), apologize for Italy's misdeeds (leading al-Qadhafi to raise his arms in triumph and glee), and to effect the exchange of ratifications. While the treaty calls for Italy to pay $200 million per year for 25 years to absolve it of its colonial wrong-doing, it also guarantees Italian companies preference for development projects the money will fund. Libya also agreed to implement an earlier agreement aimed at stemming illegal migration through Libya to Italy - including joint maritime patrols - but Italian DCM Lorenzo Kluzer told Poloff the treaty mirrored Italy's interests in the Jamahiriya, which he ordered as "oil, oil, oil, and migration". According to Kluzer, joint patrols could begin as early as June provided Libya follows through with implementation - something they have failed to do in previous iterations of migration agreements. Berlusconi invited Qadhafi to Italy, and to the G-8 Summit in July in Sardinia. He said one of the sessions on the third day would be devoted to Africa, hence the reason for the invite to Qadhafi, the new Chairman of the AU Assembly. The Italian PM said the summit would also deal with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as well. Qadhafi showed unprecedented hospitality for his Italian guest, being present at both the arrival and departure of Berlusconi. WE THE PEOPLE: LIBYANS SEE NO CHANGE WITHOUT CONSTITUTION
5.(C) While the reparations and increased spending on development projects sit well with ordinary Libyans, several news organizations associated with Saif al-Islam al-Qadhafi criticized the cabinet shake-up as little more than moving pawns around a chessboard. Juma al-Usta from the Libyan Chamber of Commerce was quoted saying "the new cabinet is no different from the previous ones...the same group of people over 40 years now and they are still without a strategy or a plan". A spokesman for Saif al-Islam's Qadhafi Development Foundation decried the use of "direct appointments" saying that "the new government will not succeed and will not survive six months", adding that "there is no way to get out of this without a constitution". His view is apparently shared by commenters on opposition website Libya al-Youm who expected discussion of a draft constitution and were very critical of Musa Kusa becoming both intelligence chief and foreign minister. ESO is targeted by rights groups and opposition leaders as the organization responsible for silencing political opposition to al-Qadhafi's rule using repressive tactics that violate victims' human rights. xxxxxxxxxxxx shared his view with Econoff, which seems to mirror popular opinion, "at the end of the day, I don't care about government restructuring - I just want good healthcare in Libya and a good education for my kids." LIST OF NEW COMMITTEES AND THEIR SECRETARIES
6.(C) A list of the current committees and their secretaries follows. Post maintains biographic information on its SIPRnet website at (http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Category:Li bya_Biography), which will be updated in the coming days to reflect the new portfolios: - Secretary of the General People's Committee (PM-equivalent), al-Baghdadi Ali al-Mahmoudi - Secretary of the General People's Committee for Health and Environment, Mohamed Mahmoud al-Hijazi - Secretary of the General People's Committee for Planning and Finance, Abdelhafiz Zlitni - Secretary of the General People's Committee for Industry, Economy, and Trade, Mohammed Ali al-Hweij - Secretary of the General People's Committee for Facilities and Resources, Matuq Mohammed Matuq TRIPOLI 00000212 003.2 OF 003 - Secretary of the General People's Committee for Agriculture, Livestock, and Marine Life, Abu Bakr Mabrouk al-Mansouri - Secretary of the General People's Committee for Social Affairs, Zarouk Ibrahim Sharif - Secretary of the General People's Committee for Justice, Mustafa Mohammad Abduljalil - Secretary of the General People's Committee for Public Security, General Abdelfatah Younis Obeidi - Secretary of the General People's Committee for Foreign Liaison and International Cooperation, Musa Kusa - Secretary of the General People's Committee for Education and Scientific Research Abdul Kabir Mohammed al-Fakhri - Secretary of the General People's Committee for Transport Mohamed Ali Zidane - Secretary of the General People's Committee for Popular Control and Inspection Authority, Ibrahim Ali Ibrahim - Secretary of the Financial Review Authority, Ali Omar Hesnawi - Secretary of the National Planning Council, Bashir Ali Belgacem Zimbeel Ammar Mubarek Eshamikh replaced Maftah al-Kaiba as the Secretary of the General People's Congress (roughly Speaker of the House) while Suleiman Shhoumi became Secretary of the GPC for Foreign Affairs (Senate Foreign Relations chair-equivalent). National Oil Company head Shukri Ghanem will remain at the helm, as will the Housing and Infrastructure Board's Abuzeid Dorda - though both are rumored to be keen on leaving their positions and Dorda telling DCM that he will take up another position once he feels he has completed his mission. Reform-minded Mahmoud Jibril will retain his seat at the head of the Economic and Development Board but will lose his role on the National Planning Council that has been absorbed into the new Committee for Planning and Finance.
7.(S//NF) Comment: It is too early to judge the effects the cabinet shakeup will have on Libya's domestic reform, Libya's role in regional and international affairs, and our bilateral relationship. Musa Kusa is a useful and powerful interlocutor who has been mostly cooperative in liaison channels and key to our re-engagement. He is seen as a mentor for Muatassim al-Qadhafi, Saif al-Islam's younger brother and head of the National Security Council. At the same time, his appointment seems to come at the expense of the reform movement in Libya: the lack of discussion of a formal constitution, the retention of al-Mahmoudi as PM, and the loss of key allies in ranking positions suggest that Saif al-Islam has come to a hurdle in his drive to secure political and economic reforms. This assessment would suggest a loss in stature relative to Muatassim, with whom he is widely rumored to be battling for power (see ref G). However, the Serbian Ambassador here (a longtime observer of the Libyan scene) shared a different view with the Ambassador assessing that retaining al-Mahmoudi, installing Zlitni, and expanding Matuq's portfolio boost Saif's "rational" economic reform agenda by putting al-Qadhafi insiders in stronger policy-making roles, while increasing Musa Kusa's reach balances Saif's gains with Muatassim's. Muammar al-Qadhafi's seats at the UN Security Council, as head of the African Union, and Leader of a revolution celebrating its 40th anniversary on September 1 present plenty of opportunity for surprise. We expect the next six months to bring more clarity - perhaps accompanied by tumult - as to the direction will head politically. End Comment. CRETZ