Better Communicator Has Won Every General Election Since Beginning of 24/7 Media Age in 1980; Marco Rubio, Haley Barbour, Mike Huckabee Rank Highest

WASHINGTON, Dec. 15, 2010 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Marco Rubio, Haley Barbour and Mike Huckabee are the Republican candidates most likely to defeat President Obama in 2012, according to a new analysis released today.

The study assesses the 18 most likely Republican candidates – and President Obama – on the seven traits all winning presidential candidates have had since the beginning of the 24/7 media age in 1980. The 7,500-word series appears on the Mr. Media Training website, the world's most visited media training blog.

"Most pundits analyze a general election by looking at the same old measurements, such as unemployment data, consumer confidence and early polling," said Brad Phillips, author of the analysis and a former journalist with ABC News and CNN. "But they always miss a reliable predictor: the more gifted media spokesperson has won every presidential election since the beginning of the 24/7 media age in 1980."

These grades reflect how well each candidate is performing in seven communications categories:

LEADING CONTENDERS

MIDDLE OF THE PACK

TRAILING THE HERD

Grade

Candidate

Grade

Candidate

Grade

Candidate

A

Barack Obama

(Oct 2008)

B-

Mitt Romney

C

Barack Obama

(Dec 2010)

A

Marco Rubio

B-

Jeb Bush

C

Mitch Daniels

A-

Haley Barbour

B-

*Bobby Jindal

C

Gary Johnson

A-

Mike Huckabee

C+

Jim DeMint

C

Tim Pawlenty

B+

*Chris Christie

C+

Sarah Palin

C

Mike Pence

B

John Thune

C-

Newt Gingrich

D+

Ron Paul

D

Rick Santorum

*Pledged not to run

D

Donald Trump

The candidates were evaluated on the following seven criteria, which have held true for every general election since the beginning of the 24/7 media age in 1980:

The candidate with the clearest message has always won

The candidate who articulated the clearer vision has always won

The sunnier candidate with the more optimistic message has always won

The candidate whose message is best aligned with constituent concerns has always won

The more charismatic candidate has always won

The candidate who appeared most comfortable in his skin has always won

The candidate who uses the most plain-spoken language has almost always won

"Although we tend to complain about the length of presidential campaigns, the reality is that nonstop media exposure to candidates gives us a good sense of who they are," said Phillips, who authors the Mr. Media Training Blog. "That's important, because many voters – especially the crucial independents – base their votes on their personal comfort level with a candidate, not specific policy positions."

This study is based on how the candidates are doing now, but points out that many of the contenders will improve between now and the election, while others will likely get worse.

Note: This analysis applies solely to the 2012 general election, not primary elections.

Brad Phillips is the author of the Mr. Media Training Blog. He is the president of Phillips Media Relations, a media and presentation training firm with offices in NYC, DC, and LA. Mr. Phillips previously worked as a journalist with ABC's Nightline with Ted Koppel and CNN's Reliable Sources and The Capital Gang.

The Mr. Media Training Blog (www.MrMediaTraining.com) offers daily tips to help readers become better media spokespersons and public speakers. It also examines how well (or poorly) public figures are communicating through the media.