2009 Entry Draft… Penguin Prediction 1st and 2nd round

The 2009 Entry Draft is this Friday and Saturday from the Bell Centre.

There are what seems to be a record number of detailed projections available. Now what’s totally hilarious about almost all of these publications and websites offering the latest scoop is that they are almost the same. And while most of these services cost a few pennies they are about the same as the lists that can be found at Hockey’s Future: The Hockey Prospects Resource which is free.

The MOCK Drafts that take place are also pretty funny as most every one of these are performed by media-types and/or wannabe hockey-scout fans who read publication after publication and make picks based on a lot of things determined by somebody that they really don’t know. BTW, I’m no different… but,

I like to keep that in the back of mind. Way in the back!

Some of these publications are for Fantasy hockey keeper leagues who draft players based on a different than NHL teams. For example, in these keeper leagues there is little value placed on defensive defensemen unless they can pile up PIM’s. The really good fantasy hockey leagues hold their draft prior the NHL to show how talented they are and while some of these people really know their stuff none of them have any idea who the right player is to draft. But, like legends in their own minds – that doesn’t stop them!

First, I think most of us agree that Satan, Sykora, and most likely Guerin and possibly even Fedotenko are on their way out unless some miracle acceptance of low-pay is on the horizon.

When you combine the salary cap with the Entry Draft it’s easy to see that the rate the blue-chip teenagers are being jettisoned into the NHL as a less expensive cheap alternative to experienced players has increased tremendously. There are less and less first round picks being traded as teams are catching-on to this economical gold mine. History shows that most first-round picks go on to play in the NHL in some capacity. What used to be first-round picks being exchanged during the Trade Deadline have now changed to more 2nd and 3rd round picks.

Back to what the Penguins do in this draft (I got off on a bit of a tangent there)… Both Malkin and Crosby need scoring wingers. We have Tangradi, Jeffery and Cuputi and they may be ready, a year away, or lifer AHL players. We will have a much better idea how far away they are at this camp.

I believe what we can assume is that the Penguins priority is speed. Disco DAN has an aggressive system and to perform in it you must be fast. And, although you can make someone faster – you can’t teach speed.

My choice based solely on reading way too many publications will come down to the best athlete available who coincidentally will be the fastest forward who is also a finisher at the 30th spot.

If LW, Chris Kreider floats through to 30th I think he is our pick. Could be one of the fastest in the draft but is playing HS with another year of eligbility there.

A sleeper out there is LW, Erik Haula, a Finn who played last season with Shattuck-St. Mary’s.

In the 2nd round I think they make a move on a goalie and while goalies are risky, we need to start building a base of them. I’m going with Edward Pasquale who played with Saginaw

or a late blooming, Mikko Koskinen, another Finn (who is 6’-7) and played for Espoo.

Other than that… picking 30th is really great, isn’t it! Let’s do that again next year. Keep this in mind: The only difference in the draft between picking first and last is the difference between the 1st and the 210th pick. In all other rounds the 30th picks before the 31st… the 60th before the 61st… and so on.

7 Comments

We are Family! Ulfy’s kid – could Ulfy be that far behind? Andy Bathgate – Randy Velischek’s kid – a couple of forwards that can score. All-in-all a pretty good day at the draft table. 4 defensemen and 3 forwards – where’s that goalie!

The Penguins selected Defenseman, Simon Despres 6’- 4, 215… who played for the Saint John Sea Dogs in the QMJHL. The International Scouting Service had him rated #15, THN #12, and Central Scouting Bureau #8.
Some downside comments from scouts (pre draft) were that: “He was a big disappointment; his play didn’t seem to improve.” — “There are tons of tools there, but there’s got to be a heck of a lot more commitment to being a better player. It’s not going to just happen.” — “After what I saw in the summer, I expected a better year.”
Despres game may have been hurt by playing on a very lousy Saint John’s team plus he played with a nagging hip injury all season.
After being selected Bob McKenzie said, “He’s a good shot-blocker with a great attitude, but scouts wonder about his game when it comes to reading the play and his play away from the puck.”
On the upside: Last summer although he was one of the best defenseman during the Ivan Hlinka memorial Tournament. He’s a good skater, plays a physical game, has good size and isn’t close to filling out yet, has tons on untapped potential.
When picking 30th it has to be pretty hard to pass on someone rated so high by the scouting services.

When you draft last in the first round you tend to take a chance. I think Jeremy Morin from the US Under18 team might fall because of the problems where he got suspended from the Five Nations Tournament. This kid is supposedly the BEST SHOOTER in the draft. Recruited by both North Dakota and BU he’s supposedly off to the Kitchener Rangers. Hello – and welcome to the Penguins. Anyhow that’s my pick.

I believe that starting late tonight and then in to tomorrow afternoon we are going to see a lot of trading. We already know that the best way to build a team is through the draft and I also believe that the salary cap (I don’t think the Player Association vote has been announced yet) but it is either going to be around what it was this year, or less. Older teams are going to have to be very creative to shed payroll and I think we might see some interesting trade maneuvers by the Capitals, Rangers, Flyers and Bruins trading players for draft picks. Players involved could be Gomez, Nylander, Briere, and Kessel. None of these teams can afford these contracts. I think the Penguins will sit tight and just watch. They have three of the first 63 picks and this will put our new scouting group to the test. Staal’s ($4 mil) and Malkin’s ($8.7 mil) kick in and that’s why I don’t think Krundle’s “Gonchar may be traded” isn’t so far fetched.
How about a Gonchar to Minnesota?
Gonchar and our third round pick to the Wild for Minnesota’s P-M Bouchard.

I think speed will be a key issue, but getting a few players with right handed shots might be of importance also, someone who could one time one on the powerplay or on Crosby’s line.

I’m surprised the Shero isn’t signing more players, I imagine the players want to wait ’til free agency and see what they can get since they won the cup, or Shero is saving his funds for a big free agent.

Because the Penguins are so far down the draft, they most likely will take best player available, and throw him into a trade at deadline to get a rental player for another run at the cup, it seems to be the way you have to do it in this age of salary cap.

Speed is a key and so is the right-handed shot that’s why I think the Pens will select Kyle Palmieri. He’s both. In the private Q & A sessions during the combine if he answered his reasoning for being kicked off the team well I think he’s picked. While other teams don’t like the controversy around what happened and we (all positions considered) don’t need a center it still gets down to the best player available.
The Penguins then have the last pick (61st) and 2nd pick in the third round (63rd)- My picks here are: defensive- defenseman Seth Helgeson who is 6’3″, 225 and still growing. Big, physical, strong. He played for Sioux City in the USHL and is already set to play for the Minnesota Gophers this year. The Penguins take a short breath and then select with the Lightning’s 3rd round pick (via Malone trade) goalie and Robin Lehner, 6′-3″, 225 with the Vastra Frölunda Indians.
(30) Kyle Palmieri,C
(61) Seth Helgeson,D
(63) Robin Lehner,G

I don’t think Krieder will be available at 30th——– but Kyle Palmieri off the USNTDP may be and he went through some shit being kicked off the team for not ratting out some teammates.
I think they may nab a goalie but not until the 4th round where a couple of those two you mentioned might still be available. I think Zach Budish out of Edina HS, MN might be worth a shot.
I see you are bailing on the signing of Fedotenko—– why’s that?