California Prop 29 Could Go Either Way; Feinstein Opponent Unknowable Heading Into Final Weekend Before Primary:

With ¼ of primary ballots already cast and 5 days remaining until the deadline for voting, California Proposition 29, The Tobacco Tax for Cancer Research Act, may pass narrowly or may not pass, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KGTV-TV in San Diego and KFSN-TV in Fresno.

Prop 29 is today supported by 42% of primary voters, opposed by 38%. That leaves 20% of primary voters still undecided, and how those final votes are cast will determine the outcome. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Prop 29 leads 52% to 45%. But among those who have not yet voted but promise to do so by the 06/05/12 deadline - the "late deciders" -- Prop 29 is effectively even, 38% in favor, 36% opposed. Young and old voters narrowly support 29. Middle aged voters narrowly oppose. Hispanics and Asians support. Whites and blacks narrowly oppose. Democrats support. Republicans oppose.

In the top-2 primary for U.S. Senate, Dianne Feinstein is assured to advance to a general election, but it remains anyone guess who her opponent will be. 8 Feinstein opponents show up as a blip on the radar screen. 15 other opponents are not even a blip. Among the blips: Elizabeth Emken and Dan Hughes each have 4%, Rick Williams and Al Ramirez each have 3%.

In a hypothetical November matchup between Feinstein and Emken, Feinstein wins.
In a hypothetical November matchup between Feinstein and Hughes, Feinstein wins.

In a general election for President of the United States today, 5 months till election day, Barack Obama carries California by 21 points, defeating Mitt Romney 57% to 36%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,890 CA adults 05/27/12 through 05/29/12. Of the adults, 1,575 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,232 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to cast a ballot in the 06/05/12 Primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (24% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. On Proposition 29, there is a dramatic difference in how home-phone and cell-phone respondents vote. Among respondents reachable on a home telephone, Prop 29 is defeated by 5 points, 37% Yes to 42% No. But among respondents not reachable on a home telephone, Prop 29 passes by 36 points, 60% Yes, 26% No, a 41-point difference depending on how the interview was conducted, one of the largest "mode" effects ever observed by SurveyUSA on any election contest or ballot measure.

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