As the market digests the final surge of oil from a Saudi-Russian price war prior to the implementation of production cuts on May 1, it may be that the tail end of a brutal supply glut has arrived and corresponding price stabilization—albeit at a very low price—will be soon to follow. But with oil demand projections reaching multi-decade lows, and US inventories continuing to build by record levels, the madness on April 20 suggests that US markets are far from out of the woods, putting policymakers and regulators in a tough position.

The result of the OPEC+ marathon negotiations should help restore some positive market sentiment and possibly firm up something of a price floor over the short term. However, the impact of a month-long price war, amidst deteriorating oil demand, risks eventually drawing the deal into sharp relief over the next few weeks.

Reed Blakemore is deputy director at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, where he focuses on oil markets, geopolitical risk, and energy security. He is responsible for program development and strategy, as well as the GEC’s Global Energy 2050 modeling project and Shifting Gears: The Future of Transportation and the Geopolitics of Peak Oil Demand project.

Prior to joining the Atlantic Council, Reed held positions at the International Institute for Strategic Studies – US and the United States Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He earned a master’s degree from the George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs in Security Policy Studies, with emphases in defense analysis and transnational security Issues. He received a bachelor’s degree in International Relations from the University of Redlands, where he was also a member of Phi Alpha Theta, the national history honor society.

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