The dark is inescapable. A light aircraft swallowed up by the night as it reaches out to a destination it will never find.

This was the haunting reality for pilot David Ibbotson and his passenger, footballer Emiliano Sala, as they flew from the French city of Nantes to Cardiff before disappearing into the English Channel.

Now a professional flight simulation commissioned by Grimsby Live shows the daunting challenge facing Mr Ibbotson, a private pilot, as he tried to convey his precious passenger, a record £15m signing for Cardiff City, to his new home.

Based on the accurate weather conditions, the route, altitude, speed and aircraft used by Mr Ibbotson and Sala on their fateful journey, the simulation has taken a dedicated simulator pilot two weeks to refine.

It is not intended to shed light on the reasons why the plane disappeared – a task being undertaken by the Air Accidents Investigations Branch – but does provide an insight into the conditions which Mr Ibbotson encountered before the flight’s catastrophic end.

Mr Ibbotson, a gas engineer and private pilot from Crowle in North Lincolnshire, had flown into Nantes on the night of Saturday January 21, admitting to a friend on social media that his landing had been ‘a bit rusty’ before checking into a local hotel for dinner.

Although a keen pilot, Mr Ibbotson was an enthusiastic amateur in an industry where professionalism is a by-word for safety. His experience was extensive but largely limited to carrying skydivers on flights over English airfields on summer days. Even then he was not paid, instead using the trips to build up his hours in the cockpit and fuel his fondness for flying.

By law, he could not accept any flights for ‘hire or reward’. Exactly how he ended up being asked – or accepting - the job to fly Sala remains a mystery now being unpicked by investigators. It is what one pilot said would examine a known, but rarely acknowledged, “grey area” in the industry where private pilots fly commercial jobs.

For Sala, the flight from Nantes was the culmination of a hectic round of negotiations, agents, managers and club officials. When Cardiff moved to sign him for a club record £15m they had offered to arrange commercial airline flights. He declined, his agent Willie McKay having organised the private flights.

It is believed Sala had already flown on the Piper twice in the previous few days, to take him into Cardiff to sign and then return to Nantes where he wanted to say farewell to his teammates and pack some belongings.

So at Nantes Atlantique Airport two men from wildly different backgrounds were thrown together; the 28-year-old professional footballer from a rural town in Argentina embarking on a career defining transfer to the English Premier League, and the 60-year old weekend pilot and plumber who loved to fly.

Pilot David Ibbotson (right) was tasked to fly Emiliano Sala, left from Nantes to Wales where he was joining Cardiff City

The two men would spend the last hour and a half of their lives together, in a small aircraft on an ultimately desperate journey, far from their families and surrounded by darkness.

It will never be known exactly how much Sala was concerned about the potential danger of his hastily arranged flight. At a dinner to say farewell to his FC Nantes' teammates on the Saturday night, Sala had joked about the plane and either from the airport, or during the early stages of the flight itself, Sala had sent a WhatsApp message to his family expressing concern.

“I’m here on a plane that looks like it’s about to fall apart, and I’m going to Cardiff,” he said. “If in an hour and a half you have no news from me, I don’t know if they are going to send someone to look for me because they cannot find me, but you know … Dad, how scared am I!”

Whether these were light-hearted messages concealing some anxiety ahead of his flight or something expressing genuine concern is unclear.

The Piper PA-46 Malibu which took off from Nantes piloted by David Ibbotson with Emiliano Sala on board (Image: Creative Commons)

But as the 6ft 1in athletic striker clambered into the confined cabin of the Piper Malibu, his fate was now in the hands of Mr Ibbotson, an ageing aircraft and the uncertain elements.

A flight plan filed by Mr Ibbotson showed he intended to fly almost directly north from Nantes across the Channel Islands and on to Cardiff. He had Jersey as his 'alternate airport' in case of an emergency or bad weather.

The conditions in Nantes that evening were cold and clear but a front of winter weather was moving east from the Atlantic and conditions in Cardiff and across the south west of England were deteriorating.

The flight simulation

Our simulation by experienced flight sim pilot ECGadget picks up where Mr Ibbotson taxied the Piper to the main runway at Nantes Atlantique airport.

The flight simulation starts at Nantes Atlantique airport using available data from the flight taken by Mr Ibbotson and Sala (Image: Grimsby Live)

The temperature was just above freezing but the skies clear and after take-off the aircraft turns back north to cross the lights of Nantes before slowly climbing across the north west of France and towards the English Channel.

Nantes falls behind and the aircraft passes by the city of Rennes and on towards the port of St Malo, heavily populated areas easily visible from the Piper.

But then, as the Channel approaches, the light and life on the ground start to fade away into the darkness of a January night. Here, in the simulation, the aircraft encounters squalls; rain and sleet showers modelled by the simulator on official weather data in the area from the day.

With just 40-miles to the Channel Islands, Mr Ibbotson remains at 5,000ft, flying into conditions which can lead to icing, a condition which pilots learn to fear and try to avoid. Unable to fly around clouds, rain and moisture can freeze on the super-cooled wings and tail of the aircraft, presenting a growing danger with each passing mile.

Rain and sleet generated by the flight simulation of the flight by Mr Ibbotson based on available data on weather and the route taken by the Piper Malibu (Image: Grimsby Live)

After just 40-miles, the aircraft passes Jersey and then a little further the lights of a runway, Guernsey Airport, appear to the left of the aircraft. There is no evidence Mr Ibbotson chose to try to land there.

What is known is that around the same time, 8.25pm, Mr Ibbotson contacted air traffic controllers based at Jersey and requested to descend. There has been no explanation why and no suggestion the call included a mayday or a ‘pan pan’ which is designed to alert controllers to an urgent problem.

When the Piper disappeared

But pilots and aviation experts suggest the request to descend is the clue that icing had become a potential issue on board.

Pilots are trained that to escape icing they should fly lower, to warmer air. Typically for every 1,000ft an aircraft climbs, the temperature drops 2C. Descending reverses the process. By flying lower, Mr Ibbotson may have been trying to shed or melt ice building up on the aircraft.

But suddenly, at 2,300ft all contact with the Piper is lost near the island Alderney. It vanishes from radar with no mayday or emergency call to warn the controllers.

Guernsey Airport appears on the flight simulation based on route data but it appears no attempt was made to land (Image: Grimsby Live)

Towards the end of our simulation as the aircraft descends, it is buffeted by turbulence, pockets or air and strong gusts of wind which rock the aircraft violently from side to side while pitching its nose up and down. The condition, although almost impossible to predict, is generated by the computer programme based on the official weather conditions at the time.

Whatever then happens in the flight’s final moments appears to have been catastrophically quick and with tragic consequences for the aircraft and two men on board. A rapid, uncontrolled, descent into the sea may have lasted as little as 10 or 15 seconds.

Pilots' analysis of possible causes

Icing remains for many pilots a likely scenario for the loss of the aircraft. Many have expressed surprise that Mr Ibbotson flew at just 5,000ft into conditions where icing could have been a risk.

“The ice builds up and disrupts the flow of air over the wings which provides the lift which allows the plane to fly. You then need more and more power to maintain that flow of air. Then your power runs out. At that point your plane stops being a plane. Your wings just stop doing what they are supposed to do which is keep the aircraft in the sky.”

Pilots also point out that icing can also affect other key instruments and ‘flight surfaces’, including ‘pitot’ tubes which provide the aircraft’s speed for the cockpit instruments, and the aircraft’s tail planes and rudder. Icing on any of these could have similar disastrous effects on the aircraft which, although fitted with ant-icing equipment, had a limited capability of flying in serious icing conditions.

There are also two other scenarios which investigators are expected to explore in which the pilot effectively becomes debilitated and can no longer fly the plane, either through a sudden medical episode or through a loss of spatial awareness. At night, with no clear horizon and relying on instruments to control the aircraft, pilots risk losing their bearings and a sense of what altitude or attitude they are flying.

JFK son plane crash

In a similar case in 1999, the son of former US president John F Kennedy, John Kennedy Junior, died along his wife Carolyn Bessette Kennedy and her sister, Lauren Bessette, when he lost control of his light aircraft off the eastern coast of America.

John Kennedy Jr., left, son of US President John F Kennedy, with wife Carolyn Besset. The couple died along with Carolyn's sister Lauren Bessette, when the Piper Saratoga, like the one right, being flown by John Kennedy crashed into the sea off the coast of America in 1999 (Image: Getty Images / Wikipedia)

The plane was a Piper Saratoga II, not dissimilar to the Malibu, and the official cause of the accident was blamed on Kennedy suffering ‘spatial disorientation’ as he descended over the sea at night.

The basis of that investigation by America's National Transportation Safety Board, will be the same as the methods used by our Air Accidents Investigation Branch as they try to find the reasons for the crash which claimed Mr Ibbotson and Sala - and hopefully lessons which can be learned to improve safety for other pilots and passengers.

Although no black boxes or flight data recorders are available to the team from the AAIB, they are regarded as among the best in the world for meticulous investigations used to unravel the most likely sequence of events leading to aircraft accidents.

Their initial report, due to be published before the end of January and to be followed up by a more thorough investigation within a year, will be void of emotion, clinical in its approach and brief.

But for the families of Sala and Mr Ibbotson, and for millions around the world who have been captivated and horrified by their fate, it is likely to shed some light into the darkness that descended on January 21.

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Time Line

Timeline of Emiliano Sala and Dave Ibbotson crash and investigation

Jan 21 - 19:15 - flight departs

Pilot David Ibbotson from Crowle in Northern Lincolnshire takes off from Nantes Atlantique airport in a Piper PA-46 Malibu carrying footballer Emiliano Sala to join his new club Cardiff City

Jan 21 - 20:30 - Plane disappears

Air traffic control in Jersey receive a request from Mr Ibbotson to descend from 5,000ft as he flies near Alderney. The Piper Malibu reaches 2,300ft and disappears from radar. A search and rescue operation is immediately launched. French authorities confirm Mr Ibbotson and Sala were on board.

January 24 - Search called off

After a huge air and sea search Guernsey's harbour master Captain David Barker says the chances Sala and Mr Ibbotson are alive is "extremely remote". The search is officially called off.

January 28 - First debris found

Two seat cushions are found washed up on a beach near Surtainville in France, around 40-miles from the site the aircraft went missing. The Air Accidents Investigation Branch later confirms they are likely to have come from the missing Piper Malibu

February 3 - Plane found on seabed

A new search for the plane is launched by the AAIB using the specialist ship Geo Ocean III together with a vessel FPV Morven hired by Blue Water Recoveries, which is crowdfunded on behalf of the Sala family. Soon after the search starts the wreckage of the Piper Malibu is located almost 70 metres underwater north of Guernsey

February 4 - Body in wreckage

In a statement, the AAIB confirm a body was seen in the wreckage of the aircraft. On February 7, the AAIB say the body has been successfully recovered by remotely operated vehicles and transferred to a ship to be brought to shore in England.

February 7 - Body confirmed as Emiliano Sala

Dorset Police confirm the body recovered from the plane and brought ashore at Portland is Emiliano Salo. It is passed to the care of the local coroner. Pilot David Ibbotson remains missing

February 8 - Family appeal

The family of David Ibbotson, who remains missing after the accident, launch an appeal on GoFundMe to launch a new search for the pilot. In an emotional statement, they say: 'Please help bring David Ibbotson home and help give him the send off he deserves.'