Hurricane Beatriz plowed into the Pacific coast of Mexico near La Fortuna this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds, bringing very heavy rains and mudslides to a 200-mile stretch of coast. Acapulco reported 5.20" of rain yesterday, and one injury due to a falling free. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards 25 miles from the center of Beatriz, and these winds are likely to cause moderate damage along a 200-mile stretch of the Mexican coast today as the storm moves northwestwards towards Cabo Corrientes. However, the primary threat from the storm will be heavy rain, and the expected rains of 6 - 12" are likely to cause very dangerous flooding and mudslides today and Wednesday morning. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz weakened significantly over the past few hours, once the eye moved over land. The mountainous terrain of coastal Mexico will continue to tear up the storm today, and Beatriz will likely be a weak tropical storm by the time it moves back out to sea on Wednesday.

Tornadoes, heavy rain slam the MidwestSevere thunderstorms rumbled through a wide section of the Midwest yesterday, generating numerous tornadoes, baseball-sized hail, and heavy flooding rains. The storm also brought heavy snow to the mountains of Colorado above 9,500 feet, an unusual occurrence for so late in June. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 43 preliminary tornado reports yesterday in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Texas, and North Dakota. The tornadoes mostly avoided populated areas, and only sporadic damage was reported. Perhaps the most significant impact of the storm was the large area of 1 - 4 inches of rain it dropped on Nebraska and South Dakota. This rain will run off into the Missouri River, further aggravating the flooding that has breached two levees and overtopped two other levees in the past week. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for the rains and severe weather will bring additional heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches over portions of the Missouri River watershed today, and will touch off a new round of severe weather today and Wednesday as the storm progresses slowly eastwards. However, the Storm Prediction Center is issuing only their "Slight Risk" forecast for severe weather for both days.

Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of a supercell thunderstorm with a classic hook echo. The storm spawned a tornado that hit Elm Creek, Nebraska yesterday. The tornado ripped the roofs off of several houses and tore down power lines.

The Atlantic is quietThe Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

What seems to be pulling the storm north? I see a high, upper/lower? north of it. Just wondering because the ECMWF showed a big low pressure system in the western GOM for one run. Since then it shows a ridge building bk over the gulf keeping everything south like last year. Just trying to learn how to read the models. I'm assuming the NOGAPS sees a break in the ridge somewhere on that run?

Quoting alfabob:There is some low level vorticity associated with the recent blowup of convection to the west of the BOC, but it is overland right now. Maybe this will be the start of something. Still waiting to see what is up with the large area of LLC left over from Beatriz.

Quoting alfabob:To early to really say, I've been watching the left-overs of Beatriz spin off weak circulations towards the BOC since yesterday (mostly from the adjacent monsoon inflow being to strong). Still not really sure what is going on with it though; a cold pocket of air did run into it right before it collapsed, so its difficult to predict how it will transform over the next day or two. Maybe Beatriz will acquire unicorns and flying pigs over the next few hours, otherwise the area near the BOC could have a very slight chance of becoming what the models are sensing (but if Beatriz redevelops then I would say a 0% chance).

Beatriz is dead, I pulled her life support plug out last night before going to bed.

Quoting alfabob:Yea it might not even reach me, but who knows; I've had strong lines of severe weather coming and then a little gap forms making everyone else get hit but my area. Definitely would have major flooding up here if there was rainfall like Florida usually has, I think the most we got from a storm this year is 2-3 inches and even then the streets begin to backup with water. Maximum monthly average around this area (peak of the year) is only around 3.16 inches.

Yeah its amazing how that kind of rain up there makes everything beautiful and green, but the dry season here is 2.5 to 3.5 inches a month. It all depends on how the climate is adjusted to, type of foliage as well as soil. The wet season we average 7 to 10 inches a month. sometimes less during some years years, and sometimes it can be way more during others. I have seen us get 15 to 20 inches in August and September several times before since Ive lived here. But then there's last year, which was very dry, and we only had 4 to 5 inches both months, which was considered bad for us. I have seen us get a foot of rain sometimes in June, and years like this, we have only had 1 inch so far. The good news is, climate forecasts are calling for lots of rain the rest of the rain season.

The way it works in the subtropics of Florida. We either get slammed for a while with rain, or we get real dry for a while. Also, most of the days it rains, we also get lots of sun, some of our heaviest rain days we manage to squeeze out several hours of sun, hence why they call us the sunshine state. Being a weather freak and an athletic/outdoorsman, its the best Climate in the U.S. to me.

* AT 815 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HAMPSHIRE TO AURORA TO SHOREWOOD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

Quoting IceCoast:Second day in a row we have seen wording like this. Hopefully the line weakens before reaching Chicago.

AT 743 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ALINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGINGWINDS OF LOCALLY 80 TO 100 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG ALINE EXTENDING FROM WATERMAN TO HINCKLEY TO NEWARK TO 8 MILES SOUTHOF SENECA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

Quoting alfabob:There is some low level vorticity associated with the recent blowup of convection to the west of the BOC, but it is overland right now. Maybe this will be the start of something. Still waiting to see what is up with the large area of LLC left over from Beatriz.

Beatriz is nearing her death, there will be no re-intensification of the system. I'll believe there will be when we start seeing unicorns and pigs start flying.

Quoting IceCoast:Second day in a row we have seen wording like this. Hopefully the line weakens before reaching Chicago.

AT 743 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ALINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGINGWINDS OF LOCALLY 80 TO 100 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG ALINE EXTENDING FROM WATERMAN TO HINCKLEY TO NEWARK TO 8 MILES SOUTHOF SENECA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

Second day in a row we have seen wording like this. Hopefully the line weakens before reaching Chicago.

AT 743 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ALINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGINGWINDS OF LOCALLY 80 TO 100 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG ALINE EXTENDING FROM WATERMAN TO HINCKLEY TO NEWARK TO 8 MILES SOUTHOF SENECA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.