See also: Mobile Internet (Aug’11) which is a total update on Aug 26, 2011 with a lot of additions to the original July 19, 2010 content on the following subjects:
– LTE and LTE Advanced — HSPA Evolved (parallel to LTE and LTE Advanced) — Heterogeneous networks or HetNets — Femtocells and Picocells — Qualcomm innovations in all that — Ericsson’s LTE Advanced demo — Current roadmaps on evolutions of current 3G+ broadband mobile networks

… WiMax operators in the U.K. and The Netherlands are closing and … U.S. operators are considering re-applying their spectrum to other technologies.

… but LTE basestations are only just being rolled out in production quantities. “LTE basestations are on 18-month lead times and there is a problem with a lack of suitable sites for basestations.”

Whereas a 3G basestation cell could support 4,000 users, an LTE cell is smaller and can only support 600 users, so seven times as many basestations are needed to support the same number of users …. That means additional sites have to be found and, in addition, placing LTE equipment on the roofs of tall buildings doesn’t always provide street-level coverage as it normally did for 3G basestations.

The result is likely to be an inability to service the demand created by sales of smartphones. …

Comment by alan.varghese: The assertion that a 3G basestation cell can support 4000 users, while an LTE cell can only support 600 is not entirely accurate and needs further clarification.

… What the analyst may be referring to is that if you deploy LTE in the 2.6GHz band, and compare that to 3G in the 850 or 1900MHz bands, the LTE cell size looks smaller. But this is due to penetration and coverage limitations of the higher frequency, and is obviously not a valid apples-to-apples comparison.

To find more information regarding this bold statement one should get a paid subscription from the publisher GigaOM, so I will provide a couple of sources here which could clarify that statement equally well.

Second, the impetus for such a strong statement has come from the June 11 conclusion of the BWA (Broadband Wireless Access) spectrum auction in India, for which I could offer the view of a leading local analyst, Shiv K. Bakhshi: BWA spectrum auction leaves a changed telecom landscape in India. He is even daring to write:

In an earlier column, I had suggested that the BWA auction in India could finally put to rest the debate whether WiMAX or TD-LTE will triumph in the 2.3 GHz band unpaired TDD spectrum across the world. Unfortunately for WIMAX, this may well be the case. All data points suggest that WiMAX signals – hopes, if you prefer – may be beginning to fade in India.

Worse, this might be a precursor to a similar scenario unfolding across the world.

Personally, I would still think that, although the worldwide market share of WiMAX is not going to grow as fast as it was first expected and that LTE will become the mainstream, will still have some hope. Let us not forget that Intel throws its weight behind WiMAX.

Just imagine if Intel, the world’s largest supplier of processors for personal computers, comes up with a new specification — akin to the Centrino — then combines the chipset for its processors with a built-in WiMAX module.

Meanwhile the biggest force behind LTE (original FDD variant), NTT DoCoMo is closing his LTE actions (started in 2006 as “Super 3G”) as follows (slide #26 of the June, 2010 Facts presentation):
・DOCOMO introduced its W-CDMA-based 3G service in 2001, and then eventually launched HSDPA(※) for high-speed data communication up to 7.2 Mbps
・DOCOMO’s 3G network is being overlain with HSPA(※), and later LTE(※) (Super 3G), for even faster data speed and greater data volume
・DOCOMO is developing a next-generation network to smooth the migration to a 4G (IMT-Advanced) service offering ultra high-speed communication of up to 1Gps

With this NTT DoCoMo is actually ahead of even TeliaSonera, launching LTE worldwide first in December 2009, because:

TeliaSonera decided not to conduct LTE trials so that it could be first to launch the next-generation mobile broadband technology, according to Ljunggren. “My advice is don’t make any trials,” he said. …