Just a wee post on how the polling has progressed for the parties (across the pollsters) over the campaign.. more for myself (to separate out the noise from actual trends), but thought I’d leave up here for anyone interested. Results of polls are in chronological order (i.e. oldest first).

NB this is NOT a prediction, simply a summary of what pollsters are indicating to date.

Fine Gael

There has been 7 RedC’s since the election was called. In those, FG has polled;

30-29-31-30-28-26-30

So a range of 26-31%, starting and finishing at the higher end (30%). Before the last poll however this looked like a decline from 31% (mid campaign) to 26%, so far from certain the decline has been reversed on RedC data. But 29-30% would look likely based on this pollster.

3 B&A polls, in those FG were 31-28-30. Again implies a small decline, followed by a recovery, and support between 29-30%.

B&A had them 20-20-23, so are consistently giving them more, and increasing at the end.

Millward Brown 22 & 23, MRBI 21 & 23.

So RedC have stood apart from the others to date, and the difference implied 18% vs rising slightly to 23%, would make a very big difference to them. Seem certain to be 2nd largest party in the new Dail either way.

Sinn Fein

RedC give them;

19-19-17-17-20-17-16

So possibly slight decline (except for 1 blip)…if the 20 was an outlier, they have 4 ‘going’ from 17 to 16… No momentum but no real decline there, looks about 16-17 to me.

B&A gave them 16-17-15, pretty stable, suggesting a vote about 15-16.

Millward Brown 21 & 19 so maybe a slight decline, but from a higher base..MRBI gave them 19 and 15.

About 16-17% overall on those figures maybe but slipping slightly towards 15%.

Labour

RedC have given them;

9-10-10-8-8-9-8

Fairly stable, but suggesting they may have peaked early in the campaign..suggestive of a little over 8.

B&A gave 6, 8 and (famously) 4 … a bit erratic and you’d be slow to take anything from that series..if forced you might suspect they were about 6

Millward Brown were 6% each time, and MRBI#1 gave them 7% and 6%.

If I had to take anything from that set of figures it would be about 7%.

Greens

Red C figures were;

2-3-2-2-2-4-4 – Implies after a steady 2%, may have increased to 4% now.

B&A gave 3% in each poll so if there was a rise it was masked or hidden by variance in the sample.

Millward Brown gave 1 and 2, so slight rise but from lower base, really though the vote itself well within the margin of error. The MRBI gave them 2% both times.

Hard to say for sure, but any movement there is does appear to have been upwards, polls appear to be suggesting they are at about 3%.

AAAPBP

RedC have given them;

3-3-3-4-3-2-3. Implication is they have straightlined at 3%. I suspect this masks a slight increase in an initial total over-stated by ex-ULA candidates some voters may have assumed would be part of this alliance – as posters go up their voters would start to move to “OTH”, and so if stable I suspect they have actually risen.

B&A have given them 3-3-5, suggesting a rise from a similar base.

Millward Brown gave them 3 & 5, again suggesting an increase from the base of 3. MRBI gave them 4 and 5.

Overall would read this as polls indicating rising to 5% at this stage.

SocDems

RedC have given them;

1-2-3-3-4-3-4

Slow steady increase. Particularly satisfying for them is that the increase has happened in the same context of people in 26 constituencies discovering they have no SocDem candidate, which should be a downward pressure. would suggest a vote of at least 4%, rising to 5%, but perhaps these figures still include people who won’t have the option.

B&A gave them 1-4-3 … basically lower base but reached 3-4%… woulda thought hopeful of 4% on these figures.

MB similarly see them go from 1% to 4%, and MRBI#1 gave them 2% rising to 4%.

Around 4% at this stage, I would have thought with slight upward momentum…

Renua

RedC have given them;

2-1-1-2-1-2-2

Implies a little shy of 2%, which is surprising given their candidates and profile. (Edit I’ve since been told were about 2.4% in the most recent one, so upper end of that).

B&A have given them 2-2-3, which is more promising and they will be hoping these figures are more accurate.

MB gave them 1-2, and MRBI#1 1% followed by 2%.

Something between 2-3% I think if accurate.given they have far more candidates than SocDems and AAA, this will spread very thinly if accurate.

OTH

RedC totals as follows;

15-16-16-16-16-18-15

Strongly suggests 15-16%. As you can see!

B&A gave them 20-15-15.

MB saw them drop from 18 to 14. MRBI was 16% and 15%.

So about 15% but falling? Maybe, we’ll see whether MRBI concurs.

Summary

Polls to date, across the pollsters, suggesting;

Fine Gael : Overall, a figure of around 29%.

Fianna Fail : RedC have stood apart from the others to date, and the difference implied 18% vs c.23%, would make a big difference to them. Seem certain to be 2nd largest party in the new Dail either way.

Sinn Fein: Falling to 15%.

Labour: About 7% on average but big variance overall. They’d rather RedC counting the votes on Saturday than B&A I think.

Greens : Hard to say for sure, but any movement there is does appear to have been upwards, polls appear to be suggesting they are at about 3%.

AAAPBP : Overall I would read this as polls indicating rising to 5% at this stage.

SocDems: Around 4% at this stage, I would have thought with slight upward momentum…

Renua: 2-3%…given they have far more candidates than SocDems and AAA, this will spread very thinly if accurate.OTH: So about 15% but falling .

OK, started doing this last night but after a glass or 2 of vino I found the constituency count sims a bit ‘tiring’, so put it off to today. Will be brief…

Sindo poll today from Millward Brown, which sows big gains for FF and LP, Indos down. We are told that “Uniquely, the poll was limited to registered voters who say they are either “certain” or “likely” to vote”, which is an odd statement as other pollsters do this or similar (RedC recently increased the certainty threshold) and so one presumes this means this is a change to the MB method, which makes movement hard to judge, i.e. is it a result of real world change or the change in method?

Projections as follows;

FG

27%

52

FF

23%

41

SF

19%

31

LB

6%

5

GP

2%

1

AAA/PBP

5%

6

SocDems

4%

6

Renua

2%

2

OTH

12%

14

100%

158

The couple of points LP are lower compared to RedC sees them miss out on a rake of seats (indeed falling short of the 7 required to be a Dail party), suggesting there is a very big tipping point for them between 6-8%… if they are about 7% on the day (quite possible on current polling) I suspect they will be involved in a lot of dogfights. If they fall as low as this on polling day, this could be the last time the party contests an election (at least in its current form), as consideration of a re-alignment of the centre-left would surely arise if both they and the SocDems were below that threshold. But we’ll see.

FF will be well pleased with this poll, along with B&A it suggests that they will be comfortably the 2nd largest party in the next Dail. The dilemma will be whether to Tallaght-strategy FG, coalesce (unlikely on these figures I think), or work to pull the plug in a few months and try to be the largest party in a 2nd vote (if these figures were delivered upon this week, that would be very possible, with FG in striking distance).

OTH looks too low to me, but beyond that, not much more can say on this one.

Well, a lot of people excited by the B&A poll that was/wasn’t/will be, but another poll from RedC and we’re back where we started. Sorta.

Today’s poll shows LP back where they have been around in most polls (8%) – given the somewhat better performances they’ve had in the last few days they will be hopeful that the momentum is upwards. FG are up again to 30%, which will settle a few nerves – SF continue to show a slow downward trend which, while will still keep them well ahead of LP means they won’t come close to FF in the next Dail, and the Greens up to the top end of their range to date (4%). AAAPBP will be unhappy to see they are down to 3%, having been at 5% and ahead of LP in B&A (some claimed it was the first time a ‘socialist party’ was ahead of LP in the polls, however the marxist (and then pro-Soviet) WP led LP in a few polls in the 80s and threatened to overtake them in 1987 (they didn’t). Also, the WP *are* a party, unlike AAAPBP who are more in the nature of an alliance.. not quite a ‘broad/popular front’ but ..umm…anyway…

Projections as follows;

FG

30%

56

FF

18%

32

SF

16%

24

LB

8%

13

GP

4%

3

AAA/PBP

3%

4

SocDems

4%

6

Renua

2%

2

OTH

15%

18

100%

158

Interestingly, the combined improvement in both GP and SocDems would, on those figures, make a FG/LP/SD/GP coalition within touching distance of a majority if it could be cobbled together, although I suspect they’d not be able to get all to agree to it, the two smaller parties in particular would be looking at a single seat at cabinet which would be hard to sell (especially to the SocDems I suspect), and LP are mooted to be considering 15 seats a minimum before re-entering Govt…that said, if there were 2 other centre-left voices at cabinet, perhaps they might be flexible…

However if this was the outcome I’d still think FG/FF in some shape/form/arrangement, although there might be weeks of choreography before the Rainbow alternative was exhausted as an option.

Of course, just one poll, no doubt everyone will be clinging to the one that backs their party. With, I understand, Millward Brown in the Sindo tomorrow and MRBI in the Irish Times on Monday, people will have plenty to choose from. If they can’t find what they want among the 4 polls, they are probably in deep trouble…

Those up last night will have (very briefly) seen the report of a B&A poll conducted for tomorrow’s Sunday Times. While it was taken down very quickly and B&A have yet to comment on the matter, the Times (Saturday edition) have referred to the result and so we can assume that the figures are as contained in the leaked document.

A lot of conspiracy theories bouncing around the web on this, but having covered the reliability of B&A a while ago and talking to people who’ve used them before, I’d be more of the “cock-up” theory brigade – there is no benefit in B&A doing this as reliability is the most important thing in that business, and if a customer, in this case a Sunday newspaper, sells no papers as a result of spending a lot of money (a decent national poll will cost €5,000-€10,000), that hammers attractiveness. Even if the poll is accurate, that’s a big minus for potential customers, and I do wonder if they expect the Sunday Times to pay them for a poll that everyone else will have read on Friday night or Saturday morning.

Anyway, the poll itself is most notable for seeing Labour support halve to 4%. What you think of that is probably in part based on where your sympathies lie… while I’ve questioned B&A before (and the manner of the poll’s release doesn’t increase one’s faith in their competence..) it also seems unlikely to me that they could be the 4-5% out that this might be, compared with other recent polls. So while it may be an outlier, there is a limit to how much of an outlier it could be, and I’d be surprised, therefore, not to see some downward movement in RedC later today (and I believe Millward Brown). If there wasn’t, this would probably be the last time you see B&A polling commissioned (save in event of the General Election coming into line with it).

Its of course also possible that it’s not an outlier, and the polls later today will be in line with it. This would surprise me, but if I had to guess now I’d be thinking LP 8% in RedC and 6-7% in MB. Lower and B&A will be relieved. We’ll see I guess.

Other news and its also a bad poll for SF at 15% (their worst for a while, which is hard to credit in a poll that LP is down so much also and SocDems down also). Good for FG, FF and Renua, along with AAAPBP who would surge past LP in a lot of places with this showing of 5%. If it came to pass, we’d have a result which was similar to pre-crash Ireland, but with FG taking place of FF and SF swapping with LP (and AAAPBP taking role previously held by the WP, including the impending name-change and bitter split…), Renua playing role of the ‘rump’ PDs before they called it a day. Govt would be almost certainly FG on their own with ‘Tallaght Strategy’ agreed with FF who would look to consolidate as 2nd party again, no way they’d play 2nd fiddle if they had over a quarter of the Dail.

Following the MRBI/TG4 poll on Donegal reported on the other day, another from Tirconaill Tribune and reported on by Highland Radio today which, while of less certain provenance, reiterates SF in danger of losing their 2nd seat,along with FG in deep trouble.

Not got too much time to comment, but this one shows SF at 31.4%, with PMcL struggling to take a seat, although only certainties are probably FF1, SF1, & most likely an Indo. Last 2 seats between Indos2, SF2, FF2 & FG who at 13.3% are struggling (17% in other poll).