AuthorTopic: Arena General Discussion (Read 139582 times)

Anyone know up-to-date and accurate probabilities and algorithm for the cards you get to pick from in arena drafting? The best I could find is this post, but it's from February and the numbers are pretty vague.

Alternatively, if I had a ton of draft data available, it would be pretty easy to reverse engineer approximate probabilities. But I don't track my drafts.

Just played a really weird endgame in a Shaman vs Warlock arena match at 7 wins.

On turn 8, I'm down something like 20 health to 6, but he has no minions and almost no hand and I have a couple minions out. My hand is Alexstrasza, Unbound Elemental, Lava Burst, Stormforged Axe.

On turn 8, he plays some crappy minions. I play my Unbound and Stormforged Axe to kill them, but this puts me at 4 health, and with only 8 mana to spend next turn.

On turn 9, he plays Ysera. I manage to kill it while retaining board control and bringing him down to 11 health (thank you based Flametongue Totem), but I have to use my Lava Burst, which again leaves me with 8 mana next turn. I also played another Unbound on this turn.

On turn 10, he plays a few minions and then uses Nightmare on his Sen'jin. I can't get through it without losing my entire board, and I can't play Alexstrasza, so I play Defender of Argus, giving me two huge Unbound Elementals, and pass.

On turn 11, his Sen'jin dies to Nightmare. He topdecks Azure Drake, which draws him a Hellfire, so he wins.

Really, really nice draft. Solid creatures, good board clear, had the option of doing lots of damage from the hand...probably could have been 12 wins if I had played it better. Unfortunately, it was not to be.

I thought it was good, but not THAT good - three Fire Elementals is good, obviously, but only one Hex, only one Axe, and no cards with the word "Lightning."

I've ended up winning a lot of games by bursting down my opponent from 15+ health; twice with Bloodlust, and three times with Flametongue + Windspeaker on one of my big bodies (Fire Ele, Frostwolf Warlord). The Nerubian Egg has found some use, too. Mostly with Flametongue Totem, and it soaked up a Holy Nova once.

Anyone know up-to-date and accurate probabilities and algorithm for the cards you get to pick from in arena drafting? The best I could find is this post, but it's from February and the numbers are pretty vague.

Alternatively, if I had a ton of draft data available, it would be pretty easy to reverse engineer approximate probabilities. But I don't track my drafts.

It seemed to me that the whole day is "try to survive, draw multiple flamestrikes, and win randomly".I've just played Flamestrike surviving guys (tho he didn't ACTUALLY play any flamestrike) and it was easy-peasy, as expected.

Just had a surprisingly good run with this priest: http://arenamastery.com/xky1I didn't think it would do very good due to the lack of 2-drops, but got to 10 wins anyway.Playing priest is just so fun sometimes, they have really cool cards that make for such interesting play decisions. Also, Flamestriking Mages is just about the most satisfying thing to do.The last game was definitely remarkable as well: I played against a Miracle Rogue. He played Gadgetzan, Backstabed my Minion, Deadly Poisoned, and on the next turn sapped the minion i played to kill his Gadgetzan.

Ughhhh... I lost my last game because I'm stupid. I forgot backstab doesn't hit damaged minions. He had 2 health, a 1/1 token with taunt and a 3/1 wild pyromancer w/ taunt. And I knifed the token then couldn't backstab the pyromancer... and i had a 3/1 on the board. ugh. always remember slow play