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Cnotes October NFL Best Bets !

Bettors strike back!

October 1, 2012

Everyone loves a good comeback story which is why we always enjoy some variation of the little guy making good at the end of a movie or book. It’s inspirational, uplifting and makes us feel good about the possibilities we all have within ourselves to perceiver against the odds a system stacks against us. It doesn’t matter whether it’s Rocky Balboa, Billy Jack or even Return of the Jedi, we all can’t get enough of that type of feel-good story that avenges some past wounds.
Here in Las Vegas, we had a story of vengeance fulfilled and pride restored as the bettors finally got the best of the sportsbooks in Week 4 of NFL action. The first three weeks of the season got progressively worse for the player, and Week 3 was the point in a typical Hollywood script where you felt the most sympathy for the character wronged.

The wronged in this story was the bettor. The evil tyrant is the Las Vegas sports book. But there was no back story involving mischief by the book like a power hungry mayor squeezing upon his small town citizens. Bettors could have just as easily bet the winning side over the first three weeks just as they did the losing side. But it’s a hard sell.

The recreational bettor loves to play the favorites. They can‘t help it, whether it’s a straight bet, point-spread parlay, money-line parlay or teasers. In all facets during Week 3, they got crushed by the sports books. It may be a lousy strategy to side with the favorites weekly, but it’s hard to change habits, especially when a few teams in the past have produced nice consistent pay days.

In Week 4, instead of jumping off the wagon on a few teams, bettors tried a new strategy by cautiously playing some of their favorite teams on the money-line and teasers. The payouts are less, but it helped them all exact revenge and force the books to feel some of the pain they’ve felt through this young football season.

The root of all strategies began with taking the Patriots laying four points at Buffalo and the 49ers laying 4 ½-points at the Jets. While it looked like the Bills would provide another upset the books have been ringing in the cash register with all season -- up 21-7 early in the third-quarter, the Patriots showed their faithful some of the magic they all remembered from days of yesteryear in a 52-28 blowout.

The 49ers have been one of the top bet teams all season, and despite losing last week at Minnesota, bettors stayed the course and rode out the mini-storm. And it paid off as the 49ers thoroughly dominated the Jets, 34-0.

From there, the rest of the Sunday was gravy. In addition to 13-to-5 odds (Bet $100 to win $260) being paid on parlays from the Patriots and 49ers to almost everyone, the two teams started an avalanche of larger parlays and teasers.

The game that gave long life to money-line parlays and teasers on the day was the Falcons 30-28 win against the Panthers. The Falcons were a popular choice laying seven, which didn’t cover, but their link to the rest of the day on money-line parlays and teasers assured the books that they were in a no-win situation.

When you throw in the Broncos 37-6 win over the Raiders and the Texans 38-14 blowout over the Titans, the liability just continued to grow. And then the books had the all-way teaser payouts -- both sides and both totals -- on the Cardinals 24-21 over the Dolphins and the Redskins 24-22 win at Tampa Bay.

The only hope the sports books had of salvaging something at the end of the day was the Eagles covering 2 ½-points at home against the Giants. As fate would have it, the Eagles won by two, 19-17. The UNDER was good for the house, but the Eagles 2-point win was the defining blow in the script finale.

Overall, the weekend was awful for the sports books, and it wasn’t just the NFL. Saturday’s college football action was sort of a push with small winners or losers around town, a big change from the consistent win through the first four weeks of action.

Perhaps the worst part for the books has been the daily losses in baseball as the big favorites seem to be getting there, not just on the money-line, but on the run-line as well. The only silver lining here has been that baseball has been on the back-burner ever since football started. Had baseball been front and center like it was in July, with these types of favorites coming in, Saturday and Sunday would have been an absolute blood bath for the books.

Each week the wind seems to blow in a different direction, but let what happened in Week 4 of the NFL be a friendly reminder of how to beat the books. There is a reason why NFL teasers pay less than college and it’s because the spreads are sharper and more dependable. When you can add 6 to 7 points on any of the pro lines, you’re getting the best of the value. Also, two-team parlays are the extent of where real value lies within the parlays, unless we’re discussing several line moves on a stale parlay card in your favor.

Week 5 has some great opportunities, go get ’em, and may the force be with you.

Jets out of Fuel

When watching quarterback Mark Sanchez stink up his own stadium Sunday against the 49ers, you have to wonder what is going through coach Rex Ryan’s mind. Most of us figured at some point that Tim Tebow would be taking over the helm as starting quarterback for the Jets, but no one figured that he would be treated like some kind of pariah through the first four weeks.

When Ryan brought in Tebow, he talked openly about all the things he would bring to the Jets in key short-yardage situations and his skills inside the red zone, all attributes he has yet to utilize. He’s watched Sanchez week after week struggle in goal line situations and last week may have been the worst.

So the question is - why did Ryan bring in Tebow? There are so many areas offensively -- their weak link -- that Tebow could improve upon, especially in their running game. Ryan loves to pound the ball on the ground and he hates turnovers, yet he uses Sanchez in every situation and eliminates so much potential by not including Tebow anywhere.

The fear could probably be knowing that once Tebow gets in, there’s no way to take him out because of success, the same type of success John Elway hated in Denver. Ryan loves Tebow, so the problem is probably more deep rooted within the Jets’ executives. It may take another ineffective week of Sanchez for the entire nation to watch on Monday night against the Texans this week for senses to kick in and say a change is needed. Right now, it looks like their best option to win is by letting Tebow run the show.

Love him or hate him, there’s no denying that Tebow in the spread option is hard to defend and above all, he's a winner. The Jets could sure use some of that right now.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

After watching the first three weeks of the NFL regular season, we identified a trend that dealt with double-digit outcomes and it came through once again in Week 4. In last week's Double-Digit Trends piece, we made you aware that 14 outcomes were decided by 10 or more points in the first two weeks of the season. The obvious perception is that that these teams aren't good and more blowout losses should occur.
Well, it's been the complete opposite!

Teams that lost by double-digits have shown the ability to rebound in superb fashion, posting a 12-2 straight up record in their next game. Against the spread, the mark dropped a tad but still managed to cash for gamblers at a 77% clip (10-3-1).

If you take away the result from the Buffalo-Kansas City matchup in Week 2 when both teams were coming off double-digit losses, the numbers are 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS, which is pretty ridiculous considering you would like to believe that all things balance out.

As you can see in the below table, that hasn't been the case. In Week 3, we had six teams playing off losses by 10 points or more.

Those squads quickly forgot about what happened the previous week and produced a 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS record. Those watching the Carolina-Atlanta game would argue that the Panthers should've captured the outright win on the road. Including that close call, the numbers stand at 16-4 SU and 16-3-1 ATS in the 20 instances. The NFL definitely prides itself on parity and it looks like that's what we have again this season, at least after the first month.

It's safe to say that everybody has looked suspect so far. We do have three unbeaten teams and Houston (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) has looked the best amongst that trio, but the Texans have faced clubs with a combined record of 5-11.

There are only two winless teams in Cleveland (0-4 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) and New Orleans (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) and they haven't exactly been doormats, with all of their losses coming by 10 or less.

Will this double-digit trend continue into Week 5?

Last week, we had six teams lose by double digits again. Only five will be able to avenge those setbacks with Oakland having its bye. To no surprise, all five teams are underdogs but three of them will be playing at home.

Tennessee at Minnesota: The Vikings go from "Hunter to Hunted" in this spot and the early money came on the visitor. Minnesota opened as a 6 1/2-point favorite and the line has dropped to 5 already. Minnesota is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season.

Kansas City vs. Baltimore: KC turned the ball over six times to the Chargers and only lost by 17, which isn't too bad when you put things in perspective. Even though the Ravens have a couple extra days of rest, this team is already 0-1 on the road and they lost cash for gamblers the past two weeks as favorites. Is this the week they cover the number?

Jacksonville vs. Chicago: The Jaguars are 1-1 (2-0 ATS) on the road and probably should be unbeaten as visitors. However, the team is 0-2 at home and both losses came by double-digits to Houston and Cincinnati. The Bears haven't been a great road favorite but they are your typical bully team that feeds on the weak and loses to the top teams. The win by Chicago on MNF at Dallas, it's second straight by 10-plus, should bump this line up by kickoff.

Buffalo at San Francisco: Backing a team that got outscored 45-14 at home in a second-half doesn't sound promising, but can it get worse for the Bills? Traveling from one coast to another is never easy but this is a possible look-ahead spot for the 49ers with the Giants visiting for a game in Week 6.

N.Y. Jets vs. Houston: As mentioned above, the Texans have been the class of the NFL after four weeks but this has "trap game" written all over it, especially with Green Bay and Baltimore on deck for Houston. Similar to the Bills, the Jets were embarrassed at home last week and you would like to think that playing on MNF would produce a better effort here.

Along with providing the trends on teams off big losses, we also spoke about the teams that won those games. Unfortunately for them, duplicating those victories has been hard this season. Including last week's results, teams are 9-11 SU and 8-11 ATS after winning by double digits this season. Those results could be worse but the Falcons and Cardinals both squeaked out home victories in Week 4, but failed to cover as favorites.

Also, if you take out the matchups where two teams meet off wins by 10-plus points, the number dips to 7-9 SU and 6-10 ATS.

Week 2 - Denver at Atlanta
Week 3 - Green Bay at Seattle

Six more teams will try to continue their dominance in Week 5.

Cincinnati vs. Miami: The Bengals have won three straight after getting ripped by the Ravens 44-13 in Week 1. The Dolphins are off back-to-back overtime losses, which makes you wonder how much do they have left in the tank.

Denver at New England: Both of these teams are off double-digit victories, New England by 24 and Denver by 31. Patriots are 2-2 but the losses have come by a combined three points. When they win, they win comfortably.

San Francisco vs. Buffalo: (See above)

San Diego at New Orleans: What Chargers team will show up on SNF? San Diego rebounded from a bad home loss to Atlanta with a wire-to-wire win at Kansas City. New Orleans has been competitive but this is certainly no gimme and it's hard to back a team that can't win close games, especially if you have to lay 3 ½-points on top of it.

Houston at N.Y. Jets: (See above)

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

With the NFL finally coming to its senses and replacement referees no longer the lead story on ESPN, we move into the second-quarter of the 2012 season.
With that, we open the history book to find how teams have fared during the month of October in five key situational roles, namely: Favorites, Dogs, Home, Away and in Division.

Listed below are the good, bad and ugly team trends in games played since 1990.

By following this list closely the only thing you’ll be looking to replace by the end of the month will be the batteries in your remote. Enjoy the games.

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on: Don’t worry about the Pittsburgh Steelers 1-2 start. Through the years, Pittsburgh has been a notoriously slow starter who gets rolling starting in October. This is particularly true at home where the Steelers are 27-14 against the spread. The Pittsburgh franchise has longed worked to peak at the right time, which is later in the season. This month is the time they start building.

AWAY TEAMS

Bad: Maybe it will be different this time, but Seattle has not been kind to its backers in October when leaving the Northwest. The Seahawks are a miserable 14-30 ATS away from Coffee Town and have long history of poor results in the Eastern Time Zone. This is not good news since Hawks will be playing in Carolina and in Detroit this month.

Except for the Tony Dungy and John Gruden years, Tampa Bay has a long, lost history of failure. For those betting football it shows up this month on the road where the Buccaneers are a money-draining 13-28 ATS. Fortunately, Tampa Bay has just one roadie in Minnesota on Oct. 25. Here is a mind-blowing fact on the Bucs that qualifies for a mention in Ripley’s Believe It Or Not: Tampa would have to win 123 games in a row (over seven straight seasons), just to even up their all-time record at .500. Chew on that for a while.

Keep an eye on: The Bill Belichick era has certainly been a bonus not only to New England, but sage followers. When the Pats hit the road, they are 26-15 ATS in October, which fits in line with zebra-hunting Belichick’s 25-12-2 ATS snapshot as an away underdog in his career. The Patriots will have two visiting assignments this month.

FAVORITES

Good: Even without the three years Cleveland did not have a NFL team (locals might question if it still is a professional team), in the last 21 years, no club has been a favorite as few a times in this trick-or-treat month. At least the Browns have delivered treats with an 8-4 spread record in this role. The only possible such role could be hosting in-state partner Cincinnati.

Bad: Besides the scary aspect of Halloween, October has also been a part of some the worst single one day falls on the stock market. The Cincinnati Bengals fit right in with an 8-17 ATS record when handing out points. This could occur a couple of times.

Keep an eye on: St. Louis is a very positive 19-11 ATS when in this role, but with home games against Arizona, Green Bay and New England, we are not certain they will wear the favorite’s hat. Seattle is the polar opposite at 12-20 ATS and the only potential faves roles are at Carolina and home to the Brady Bunch.

DOGS

Good: What is sure to place a smile on any football bettors face is whipping out the I-phone and finding the Giants or Steelers as underdogs. The G-Men are 19-9 ATS when receiving points from oddsmakers and Pittsburgh is even better at 20-7 ATS, 74 percent! New York would be presumed to catching digits at San Francisco and at Dallas, while the men from the Steel City might only see points coming their way once on Oct. 21 at Cincy.

Keep an eye on: San Diego is the kind of mutt you don’t want to even have eye contact with at 11-21 against the number. Possibly a date at New Orleans will have the Bolts as underdogs. NFL bettors would just like to see Cam Newton continue what came before him with Carolina 24-13 ATS when obtaining points. The Panthers will be underdogs at Chicago at the end the month and could be catching points at home vs. Seattle and Dallas also.

DIVISION

Good: The New York Giants do not need a costume to frighten NFC rivals in October; they just have to show up at the door. New Jersey is 22-11 ATS in the division and the last two games of the month are against Washington and at Dallas.

Bad: Until the last several years, Cincinnati and New Orleans were moribund franchises well acquainted with losing regularly. These bad habits happened all the time, including within their respective divisions. Backing the Bengals in division play is foolhardy, as a gruesome 11-27 ATS record proves. Contests with the Browns and Steelers could be frightful.

The city of New Orleans has been known for is jazz music, but the Saints have frequently been off-key with their 10-23 ATS showing vs. division foes. With all the issues for Drew Brees and the boys this season, a trip to Tampa could be troublesome.

Keep an eye on: Chicago is a sharp 22-11 ATS and has Detroit in the Windy City on a Monday night. The NY Jets are 22-12 ATS and finish the month at New England and with Miami. Pittsburgh is 23-13 ATS and will spend a Sunday night in Cincinnati. When Peyton Manning was in Indianapolis, the Colts were often overvalued favorites playing a part into their 12-22 ATS mark. That will not be the situation heading to Tennessee on the last Sunday of the month. Seattle is 13-25 ATS in division action and will have an important affair on a Thursday night in San Francisco.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

The undefeated Arizona Cardinals try to prove they’re for real when they visit the St. Louis Rams on Thursday Night Football.

The Don Best Pro Odds have just released NFL Week 5 odds. Arizona is a 1-1½ point road favorite with a low total of 38-38½. The NFL Network will have this NFC West battle beginning at 8:20 p.m. (ET) from the Edward Jones Dome.

The Cardinals get the primetime coverage at the perfect time with their 4-0 straight up record their best start since 1974. That’s when the franchise was ironically located in St. Louis.

That 1974 squad finished 10-4 before losing in the first round of the playoffs. There was plenty of talent including Jim Hart at quarterback, running back Terry Metcalf and lineman Dan Dierdorf. The latter is still brutalizing us each week as a television analyst on CBS.

Coach Ken Whisenhunt didn’t know what to expect with this year’s team, but is certainly pleasantly surprised. Quarterback Kevin Kolb didn’t even begin the season as the starter, but led a comeback win versus Seattle in Week 1 after John Skelton got hurt and has a 97.6 rating overall (ranked ninth).

Kolb led a last-minute comeback last Sunday to send their Miami game into OT. The 24-21 win as 4-point favorites was the first ATS loss this season. Kolb was sacked eight times and is not getting much help from the league’s 30th-ranked rushing attack (68 YPG). Beanie Wells (toe) is on IR which leaves the rushing duties to Ryan Williams (3.0 per carry).

Whisenhunt’s defense let up 431 passing yards to Miami rookie Ryan Tannehill. The unit ranks 17th overall in total yards allowed (357 YPG), but third in points (15.3 PPG). Having 10 defensive turnovers has really helped the cause, although that can’t be counted on each week.

The ‘under’ is 3-1 for Arizona this season, going ‘over’ the 38 ½-point total last game thanks to the late touchdown pass by Kolb.

The Rams (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) have already won as many games as all of last season. They’ve taken both home tilts this year as small ‘dogs, 31-28 over Washington in Week 2 and 19-13 versus Seattle last Sunday.

New coach Jeff Fisher has brought much-needed confidence to the franchise. The team was out-gained in total yards (319-286) by Seattle, but found a way to win by picking off quarterback Russell Wilson three times.

The defense has had trouble stopping the run at 135.3 YPG (ranked 26th), but Arizona and Williams don’t look like a big threat this week. The pass defense ranks 13th at 214 YPG, with a league-high eight picks. Kolb had his first two interceptions of the year versus Miami and could be vulnerable Thursday as well.

The St. Louis offense is still a work-in-progress under new coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. Quarterback Sam Bradford (80.1 rating) may never live up to his No. 1 overall draft selection, but he can make plays if the offensive line (14 sacks) holds up. He does have one of the NFL’s leading receivers in Danny Amendola (351 yards).

It would help to get running back Steven Jackson (195 yards, 3.3 ypc) going and he is rounding into shape from his groin injury.

A look at the Don Best injury report has Arizona defensive lineman Darnell Dockett (hamstring) questionable after missing last game. He would be a big addition.

Note Arizona has won the last seven meetings between the teams in St. Louis, going 5-2 ATS.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the 4th quarter of the Week 4 NFL games. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.
New England (-4½) 52, Buffalo 28 (48.5): Early in the 3rd quarter Buffalo led 21-7 in this AFC East clash but the Patriots rallied to tie the game on Tom Brady touchdown scramble that surprisingly withstood review. New England poured it on in the 4th, scoring three touchdowns in the first five minutes of the final quarter to pull away and create the blowout final margin.

Atlanta (-7) 30, Carolina 28 (48): The Falcons led by 10 late in the 3rd quarter but Cam Newton ran in for a late 3rd quarter touchdown that put the Panthers within three and covering the underdog spread. Carolina actually took the lead about halfway through the 4th quarter but the Falcons chipped away, getting a field goal with five minutes to go get within one. Newton and the Panthers needed just one more first down to run out the clock but the quarterback fumbled as he passed the marker and the Panthers were forced to punt the ball back. With less than a minute to go and backed up deep the Falcons hit a miracle bomb to Roddy White to get near midfield and then got into field goal range for the win. The Panthers seemed to have the cover in hand most of the way but Atlanta would have gone for two had they hit the end zone on the final drive so a push was possible.

Arizona (-4) 24, Miami 21 (39½): This line came crashing down all week from an opening number of seven and the Dolphins proved that move smart with a 13-0 lead on the undefeated Cardinals at halftime, a lead that probably could have been greater. By the middle of the 4th quarter the Cardinals had taken a 14-13 lead however, after hitting a 46-yard pass play. Miami answered as Brian Hartline had an 80-yard play as part of his huge receiving day and the Dolphins nailed the two-point conversion to go up by seven, seemingly sealing the dog cover with seven minutes to go. On its final drive Arizona connected on 4th down with just 22 seconds to go to force overtime. Arizona’s first drive in overtime went backwards but Ryan Tannehill was intercepted to set the Cardinals up in good field position. A touchdown would steal a miracle cover for the favorite, a field goal would leave the cash with the Dolphins backers and Arizona eventually settled for the winning kick. The late scoring also pushed the total just slightly ‘over’ in a game where the ‘under’ looked like the right play all game.

Washington (+2) 24, Tampa Bay 22 (45): The Redskins led 21-3 at one point but Josh Freeman led the Buccaneers back into the game after a very rough first half. Aided by three missed field goals by Washington kicker Billy Cundiff, Tampa Bay took a 22-21 lead with less than two minutes to go in the game, though they were still short of the spread. Washington hit a couple of big plays down the middle to give Cundiff another shot as ‘under’ players prayed for another miss. The kick sailed through however, giving Washington the win and the first ATS loss for Tampa Bay on the season.

Philadelphia (-2) 19, NY Giants 17 (46½): This spread bounced around from -1 to -2½ on so timing proved critical as the Eagles and Giants played a tight low-scoring game Sunday night. Philadelphia led by three entering the 4th quarter and then by 16-10 after another field goal. The Giants took the lead with less than seven minutes to go with a touchdown drive however. Then for the fourth consecutive drive Philadelphia got another Alex Henery field goal to take the two-point lead, failing to cash in from close range and leaving the margin right on the number for many. It felt like too much time to leave Eli Manning and after pass interference calls helped the Giants get into field goal range a huge offensive pass interference call on Ramses Barden pushed the Giants back into difficult field goal range. In the typical final kick charade Andy Reid got a timeout off to negate a Lawrence Tynes miss but on the retry Tynes missed again, falling just short on a 54-yard attempt.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

Interesting, another week of action, and my preface to last week's column still remains accurate: After four weeks of action only three teams remain unbeaten -Houston, Atlanta and Arizona; while a pair are winless - New Orleans and Cleveland. Yes, in Week 4, the unbeaten squads won again, two in dramatic fashion, while the winless squads both lost again - and both of those were one score games as well. What is new, and a positive, is the officials signed an agreement to get back on the field, which took place this past weekend - that is surely a ton of good news. Let's jump right into the numbers…

Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80).

As promised last week we are now showing our "blended SOS" rating for each team, which is a weighted average of opponent's performance ratings and opponent's record. Using that piece of information along with where team's actually stack up in the ratings can assist in determining true performance - if we look at Denver, they check in #4 in the performance ratings this week, only trailing New England by 0.4 rating points per game; if we then adjust for SOS, where Denver is #9 while New England is #23, thru the first four weeks of the season Denver has actually performed better than New England has. I continue to work on a formula where that information can be used to show an SOS adjusted performance rating.

Denver played the best game of the season thus far, posting a 137 score in their 37-6 rout of rival OAK. The Broncos are definitely a team to keep an eye on because as mentioned last week, their two losses came to a pair of the undefeated squads, and they have now outplayed 3 of 4 opponents including Week 2's loss at Atlanta (21-27).

Houston remained at the top of the ratings, the only team to average triple digits per game on the season. With the SOS remaining for the Texans (#21 opponents record, #24 opponents performance ratings) they certainly appear to be a very likely candidate to finish at the top of the ratings come the end of the season.

At #2 is San Francisco, giving us a 1-2 punch of HOU-SF, which makes sense as most people believe those two are the cream of the NFL crop at this point. Philadelphia remains in the Top 3 buoyed by a strong defense that is rated #1 in the NFL.

A pair of surprise teams at #11/#12 in Minnesota and Washington continue playing well - but keep an eye on their SOS as it currently sits among the easiest of the teams rated around and above them, and both teams are well within the top ten of remaining SOS in both opponents record and opponents performance ratings - we could see a correction coming very soon.

Arizona, easily the lowest rated of the trio of undefeated teams, actually slipped a spot to #22 after being badly outplayed vs. Miami on Sunday to the tune of 96-65; it led to their first ATS loss of the season, even with the line dropping some 2.5-3 points during the week - more could be right around the corner, especially considering their remaining SOS is rated #2 based on opponents record, and #6 based on opponents performance ratings.

Carolina slid up from #27 to #24 after a gut wrenching loss to ATL on Sunday, but a closer look at their performance ratings tells a story of concern - their season to date SOS of #29 is easily the most favorable schedule of the bottom 11 teams in the ratings. Coming into the season I talked about being bullish on the Panthers this season, believing their offense would remain among the best in the league, and their defense would improve because of less injuries - their defense has not performed well at all, rating #29 in the league so far, including #31 vs. the rush.

Lastly, we have a new team bringing up the rear, Oakland. As mentioned above they were hammered in Denver Sunday, leaving them alone at the bottom with an average performance rating of just 54.4/gm. Things are not going well in Oakland, which has really been the story for the better part of the last decade.

As far as conference and divisional breakdowns, while last week the NFC had 4 of the top 6 spots, now the AFC holds down 5 of the top 7, following the drop backs of the Falcons and Giants. On the flip side 6 of the bottom 8 teams are also from the AFC - which means there are some very good teams, but also some very bad ones in the AFC - and we can see that as the playoff picture continues to shape up (discussed below). The NFC East has the highest rated worst team with Dallas checking in at #18, while the NFC North is just behind with Detroit at #19.

Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk4. As a reminder, this process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team.

Following Week 4 games I have adjusted the power ratings for 6 teams, 3 up and 3 down as I always keep the proper balance within my ratings. After updating for last week's action, and the power rating changes just mentioned, there are just two teams that moved up or down 1 projected win:

DOWN:

New York Jets (1.2) Oakland (1.2)

As far as changes to my playoff projections, the AFC has one new playoff team, Cincinnati, whom replaced the New York Jets, whom just got in last week. Most of the seeds also stayed static - the only differences were related to the change of teams in prior point. As we can see however, the AFC playoff picture appears to be taking shape, even this early in the season. It looks like there are 7 teams that will be in the mix for 6 spots - remember how accurate this exercise has been over the years, very few times are there big time surprises, especially once we get about half way into the season.

In the NFC we also only saw one team change, and it was directly driven by the result of MNF with Chicago dispatching Dallas and sliding up into the #6 and final spot. The NFC certainly has a little more flexibility, and teams that will battle it out for a playoff spot as the season continues - but one thing is for sure, the NFC South, a division many looked at as the best in football heading into the season, really has its work cut out for it outside Atlanta if they want to make a run to the playoffs.

In the race for the 1st pick in the 2013 NFL draft the Browns remained ahead of the Titans & Jaguars - as it currently stands, Cleveland has about a 1.5-1.75 calibrated games edge on their closest chasers.

Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings.

The Philadelphia Eagles aren’t leaving a lot of margin for error in their wins this season. They visit a suddenly healthier Pittsburgh Steelers team on Sunday in the Battle of Pennsylvania.

The Don Best Pro Odds have Philadelphia as 3-3½-point underdogs with a total of 44. FOX has the broadcast rights to this interconference affair and will get underway from Heinz Field at 1:00 p.m. (ET).

The Eagles (3-1 straight up, 0-3-1 against the spread) are playing as an underdog for the first time this season. Their three wins have come by a grand total of four points, with the latest 19-17 at home on Sunday night over the division rival Giants. That ‘pushed’ the 2-point spread.

Quarterback Michael Vick led the game-winning field goal drive in the fourth quarter and was 19-of-30 (63.3 percent) for 241 yards. More importantly, he was turnover free after having six picks and three lost fumbles in the first three games. Vick suffered a knee contusion, but is listed as probable.

LeSean McCoy (384 yards) is second in the NFL in rushing. He’s also probable with a knee tweak after rushing for 123 yards last week. Only two of those came in the first half (on six carries) and Philly needs to get him going early against a Pittsburgh run defense that is allowing a mediocre 101 YPG (tied-for-14th).

Coach Andy Reid is worried about an emotional letdown after the Giants and his team has also struggled on the road (0-2 ATS). The Eagles needed a touchdown with 1:18 left to beat Cleveland, 17-16 as 9-point favorites in Week 1. The game at Arizona two weeks ago was a terrible performance (27-6 loss as 3-point favorites).

Both of those road games easily went ‘under’ the total with the offense struggling bad.

The Steelers (1-2 SU and ATS) were one of two teams to have a bye in Week 4 and are still smarting from their stunning 34-31 Week 3 loss at Oakland as 3½-point favorites. They certainly can’t afford to fall to 1-3.

Coach Mike Tomlin’s guys at least had time to rest and get healthy. Running back Rashard Mendenhall (knee) and linebacker James Harrison (knee) are probable to play their first games this season. Safety Troy Polamalu (calf) should suit up after missing the last two contests.

The addition of Harrison and Polamalu will be a huge benefit long-term, but defenses do sometimes struggle in the first game with injured players back, even when they are All-Pros.

The expected return of Mendenhall could provide more immediate dividends with the rushing game averaging 65 YPG (ranked 31st) and a league-worst 2.6 yards per carry. Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman will still get carries, but won’t be burdened with leading the attack.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has the NFL’s second-best quarterback rating despite learning new coordinator Todd Haley’s system. He’s been sacked nine times in three games and a better running attack will slow the pass rush down and provide better balance.

The Steelers have one of the best home field advantages in football. The Jets were the first victim at Heinz Field this year, a 27-10 Steelers victory as 4½-point favorites. The ‘under’ is 4-0 in their last four home games dating back to last year, allowing a miniscule 5.0 PPG.

These teams only meet every four years in the regular season. The home team won and covered the last two with the ‘under’ going 2-0.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

Among the many surprises in the first month of the 2012 NFL season is an apparent power shift in the NFC to the Western Division, which is both good and bad news for the Seattle Seahawks (2-2), who appear to be part of the renaissance.

For the Carolina Panthers (1-3)? Regarding good and bad, it’s been mostly the latter the first four weeks of the season.

Regardless, as the calendar moves into October, both the Seahawks and Panthers appear to be fast approaching forks in the road for the 2012 campaign. Developments elsewhere in their respective divisions suggest that each are going to need to accelerate their pace in the next few weeks, or playoff hopes could be dashed before Halloween.

Thus, there’s a bit of urgency attached to Sunday’s clash between the sides at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. A quick midweek check of the Don Best NFL odds screen notes that host Carolina is a 3-point favorite at practically every Las Vegas sports book, with the total at 43½-44 and shaded to the ‘under.'

Kickoff time on Sunday will be later in the afternoon at 4:05 p.m. (ET), with FOX providing the TV coverage. Chris Myers, Tim Ryan and Jamie Maggio will provide the commentary.

Seattle has provided interesting copy for a variety of reasons this season. The new-look uniforms, featuring florescent green highlights and a new “wolf grey” color, have caused a stir (mostly positive). Then there was the wild Monday night game vs. Green Bay two weeks ago that proved the impetus for the NFL to settle its contract dispute with the referees. Along the way, the defense has emerged as one of the best. Competition in the NFC West has also upgraded, as the Seahawks, despite posting home wins over the Cowboys and Packers, have already lost on the road to improve division rivals Arizona and St. Louis.

But now there is some real concern about an offense that has been mostly stumbling the past few weeks. Wisconsin rookie QB Russell Wilson is being contained within the pocket, and the passing game has become mistake-prone. Only once in three weeks have the Seahawks exceeded 16 points.

Some observers are blaming ultra-conservative play-calling from offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell for making things harder on Wilson, who has been hampered by limiting most of his throws to obvious passing downs. Many Seahawks fans are suggesting that Bevell and head coach Pete Carroll might as well opt for veteran QB Matt Flynn, the ex-Packer who was signed to a big-money free-agent contract in the offseason, if they’re going to be running such a bulletproof offense for Wilson.

If nothing else, Flynn is a viable default option in the Seahawks’ version of the West Coast offense. Still, there is concern about a wide receiving corps that has also had its problems gaining separation and remains a question mark. There was a reason Carroll was willing to gamble on taking a look at Terrell Owens in the preseason, as Seattle still lacks a legit downfield receiving threat.

And as good as the Seahawks’ defense has been, the team is not going to make the playoffs unless the offense begins to contribute more consistently. At the moment, Wilson – guilty of three picks last week in a 19-13 loss to the Rams in St. Louis – is simply not providing the necessary spark on the attack end. Stay tuned for further developments.

Defense, however, continues to key Seattle, whose airtight stop unit has also not allowed more than 20 points in a game this season. In particular, the Seahawks have been able to stuff opposing run games, as foes are gaining only a puny 3 yards per carry against the stout Seattle rush defense. Seattle also has 12 sacks through the first four weeks, including five from DE Chris Clemons.

Those developments against the run and rushing the passer should be of real concern to a Carolina offense that has also moved in fits and spurts this campaign and needs to establish its infantry diversion to give QB Cam Newton his best chance of igniting the Panther attack.

But we saw a couple of weeks ago against the Giants (as well as the opener vs. the Bucs) what can happen to Carolina’s “O” when the running game is stuffed at the line of scrimmage and when Newton’s escape routes out of the pocket are clogged. Cam has also been prone to pouting spells (prompting an upbraiding by vert WR Steve Smith in the Giants game) as his performances to date, which include just four TD passes and five picks, suggest a possible “sophomore slump” for the ex-Auburn Heisman trophy winner.

What success foes have experienced on the ground vs. the Seahawks thus far have been on draws and inside trap runs, taking advantage of the aggressive push by the Seattle defensive front. Expect the Panthers to isolate RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart (if healthy for the latter) in such situations on Sunday.

On the plus side for the Panthers has been an improvement from their own pass rush which was a point of emphasis in the offseason. They’ve upgraded in that area, recording 12 sacks thus far, with Oklahoma rookie DE Frank Alexander emerging as a contributor. Although they’re also allowing 31 ppg over their last three games.

But the Panthers’ psyche (and that of Newton) has appeared a bit fragile this season, and we wonder how the team reacts to blowing a late lead last week at Atlanta, when the Falcons drove from their own one-yard line to a game-winning field goal in the last minute. With a bye week on deck, Carolina needs to develop some momentum in a hurry, or else it will be hitting late October with only one win, and its playoff hopes all but dashed.

Pointspread-wise, there are some Seahawks trends worth noting, especially recent successes as an underdog (8-1 vs. spread last nine receiving points) and an overall 13-5 mark against the number in their last 18 games on the board since early last season. The Seattle defense and the offense’s recent struggles behind Wilson have also combined for a potent ‘under’ recipe, as Seattle is ‘under’ in its first four games this season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

One month is in the books this season, as the Falcons, Texans, and Cardinals are the only unbeaten teams left in the NFL. With October here, it's time to look at the clubs that thrive and struggle in the month leading up to shopping for Halloween costumes.

Cincinnati, Kansas City, and San Francisco were the only three teams to win and cover all four October contests last season. The Bengals actually outdid themselves from the three previous Octobers in which Marvin Lewis' squad put together a 3-9 SU/ATS mark from 2008-10. Cincinnati looks to improve on a 3-1 record this season as the Bengals face the Dolphins and Browns before a divisional showdown with the Steelers.

The Chiefs were blown out by the Chargers to end a disastrous September, but managed an unbeaten October in 2011. Things don't get easier for Kansas City, who hosts Baltimore to start this month, but the Chiefs have a shot at a second road victory at Tampa Bay in Week 6. Prior to last season, the Chiefs won just three of their previous 11 October contests.

The 49ers concluded September with a solid 3-1 record, capped off by a shutout of the Jets. San Francisco returns home for three consecutive games, as Jim Harbaugh's team is a heavy favorite in Week 5 against Buffalo. The Niners welcome the Giants to Candlestick Park for an NFC Championship rematch in Week 6, followed by their first divisional showdown with the Seahawks in Week 7.

Arizona, Indianapolis, and Miami all finished October 2011 with no victories, but the Cardinals can start the season at 5-0 with a win on Thursday night at St. Louis. The Colts obviously struggled last season without Peyton Manning, while putting together an 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS record in October. The Dolphins head into this month off consecutive overtime losses to the Jets and Cardinals, as Miami owns a 9-6 ATS record the last four Octobers.

Below is a list of each team with their October (SU/ATS) records from last season, 2008-2010, and their schedule for the month.

2012 OCTOBER BREAKDOWN

Category 2011 2008-10 Week

TEAM SU ATS SU ATS 5 6 7 8

ARZ 0-4 1-3 6-4 7-3 @ STL BUF @ MIN SF

ATL 3-1 2-2 7-3 6-4 @ WSH OAK -- @ PHI

BAL 3-1 2-2 7-3 6-4 @ KC DAL @ HOU --

BUF 2-2 2-1-1 3-8 5-6 @ SF @ ARZ TEN --

CAR 1-4 3-2 6-5 5-6 SEA -- DAL @ CHI

CHI 3-1 2-2 4-6 4-6 @ JAX -- DET CAR

CIN 4-0 4-0 3-9 3-9 MIA @ CLE PIT --

CLE 1-3 0-3-1 5-6 8-3 @ NYG CIN @ IND SD

DAL 1-3 2-2 4-7 2-9 -- @ BAL @ CAR NYG

DEN 1-3 1-3 5-6 4-7 @ NE @ SD -- NO

DET 3-2 3-2 2-9 7-4 -- @ PHI @ CHI SEA

GB 4-0 3-1 7-4 6-5 @ IND @ HOU @ STL JAX

HOU 3-2 2-2-1 8-3 4-6-1 @ NYJ GB BAL --

IND 0-5 1-4 7-3 6-3-1 GB @ NYJ CLE @ TEN

JAX 1-4 2-2-1 6-5 5-6 CHI -- @ OAK @ GB

KC 4-0 4-0 3-8 5-6 BAL @ TB -- OAK

MIA 0-4 1-3 6-5 8-3 @ CIN STL -- @ NYJ

MIN 2-3 3-2 6-5 4-7 TEN @ WSH ARZ TB

NE 3-1 2-2 10-2 8-3-1 DEN @ SEA NYJ vs STL*

NO 3-2 2-3 8-4 7-5 SD -- @ TB @ DEN

NYG 3-1 1-2-1 9-3 8-4 CLE @ SF WSH @ DAL

NYJ 2-2 2-2 6-5 5-6 HOU IND @ NE MIA

OAK 2-2 2-2 5-7 6-6 -- @ ATL JAX @ KC

PHI 2-2 2-2 6-4 6-4 @ PIT DET -- ATL

PIT 4-1 3-2 8-3 5-6 PHI @ TEN @ CIN WSH

SD 2-2 2-2 4-8 4-8 @ NO DEN -- @ CLE

SF 4-0 4-0 3-9 3-8-1 BUF NYG SEA @ ARZ

SEA 1-3 2-1-1 4-7 5-6 @ CAR NE @ SF @ DET

STL 1-3 1-3 5-7 8-4 ARZ @ MIA GB vs NE*

TB 2-2 1-3 5-7 5-7 -- KC NO @ MIN

TEN 2-2 2-2 6-5 6-5 @ MIN PIT @ BUF IND

WSH 1-3 1-3 7-6 6-6-1 ATL MIN @ NYG @ PIT

* Game played in London, England

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

A 0-4 start to the season will get the gears of front-office folk spinning, especially if you’re the New Orleans Saints.

The Saints, who remain winless following a 28-27 loss to Green Bay Sunday, are more than likely out of the postseason picture and playing for nothing but pride in the final three months of the schedule.

The “Bountygate” scandal has obviously taken its toll on the team and serves as a justifiable excuse to pack it up and start looking ahead to 2013, even though the calendar just flipped to October. New Orleans can wash its hands of this year, go through the motions, get a high draft pick and come back next season with head coach Sean Payton fresh off suspension.

Who would blame the Saints?

That’s not the way oddsmakers see it. They see plenty of fight left in the Big Easy, which is why New Orleans is a 4-point home favorite versus the San Diego Chargers in Week 5. Books actually opened with the Saints as field-goal faves but early money pushed the spread off the key number.

Granted, San Diego has a bit of a paper 3-1 record, with wins coming against Tennessee, Oakland and Kansas City – three of the worst teams in the NFL. The Chargers were exposed and outclassed in their lone meeting with a contending team, losing 27-3 to the Atlanta Falcons as 3-point home favorites two weeks ago.

The Saints are far from contenders and could be eyeing the bye week that follows the San Diego game like a fat kid stares down a cake. New Orleans needs time to catch its breath and recover, or decide to pull the plug on the season.

Here are some other spread making football bettors go “hmmm…” heading into the weekend:

NFL

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3, 44)

Suddenly, we’re not so high on the Seattle Seahawks.

After thumping the Dallas Cowboys and shocking the Packers on Monday Night Football, the Seahawks laid an egg in St. Louis last weekend. Despite having some new faces on the field and the sidelines, Seattle remains a home-away team and can’t seem to get the job done without the infamous 12th man ringing in opponents’ ears.

Carolina has been a favorite of sharp bettors early in the season. The Panthers could be the most dangerous 1-3 team in the NFL and, outside of a blowout loss to the New York Giants, have been in the mix during their three other games.

While the spread isn't surprising, it does leave football bettors a lot to ponder as we trudge toward Sunday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

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