THE BREAKFAST BRIEFING

Investors may want to temper their enthusiasm amid the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s push above 17000, at least over the next several weeks.

As the Dow topped 17000 last week for the first time, history shows that the blue-chip average tends to jostle around these millennium markers for at least several weeks before breaking through with much conviction.

Since 1999, when the Dow first crossed above 10000, the blue-chip index has averaged a 0.36% loss in the two-week period following the passing of a 1,000-point interval, according to data from Schaeffer’s Investment Research. That compares to an average 0.21% gain over any two-week time frame.

“In the case of today’s rising market, it might be a popular point at which to take profits,” says Rocky White, senior quantitative analyst at Schaeffer’s.

When the Dow topped 14000 in February 2013, it waffled for five weeks before setting a new high and then heading off to the races. It topped 15000 in May of that year and then was essentially flat for another two months before moving higher. After hitting 16000 in November, the Dow rose slightly in the following month and even dipped back below 16000 two months later before recovering and marching to new highs.

As Mr. White notes, the Dow tends to bounce back pretty quickly from these periods of sluggishness. In a three-month time frame following the passing of a millennium marker, the Dow averages a 2.6% gain, more than double its average 1.2% gain during any three-month period.

“The underperformance doesn’t last very long, Mr. White says.

The Dow’s latest move to a new milestone comes as the stock market has picked up momentum faster than many expected. With signs mounting that the U.S. economy has recovered from the winter doldrums and the Federal Reserve expected to keep interest rates low through the middle of next year, many investors are betting the five-year bull market in stocks still has more room to run.

On Thursday, market veteran Laszlo Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates, Inc., upped his six-month S&P 500 price target to 2100 from a previous target of 1970. His new estimate would represent about a 6% gain from current levels. The index is up 7.4% so far this year and closed last week at 1985.44.

“We are in a bull market,” Mr. Birinyi said in a note to clients, “and therefore the positive case gets the benefit of the doubt.”

Morning MoneyBeat Daily Factoid: On this day in 1990, tennis star Martina Navratilova became the first player to win a record nine women’s singles title at Wimbledon.

STOCKS TO WATCH

Lorillard and Reynolds American are likely to be in the spotlight in the wake of a CNBC report that they may merge as early as end of July.

Lululemon Athletica shares may continue to see action following a Wall Street Journal report that advisers working for founder Dennis “Chip” Wilson contacted private-equity firms about taking the apparel company private.

GoPro, which made its debut on the stock market on June 26, may be volatile with options on shares kicking off trading Monday.

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