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Rev. Kishoka

JF-Expert Member

Rev. Kishoka

JF-Expert Member

A major lesson from Caracas to CCM; People get tired of populists and empty promises. JK, Msekwa, Makamba, EL, Nchimbi & Karume, please read the writings on the wall!!

By a small margin, just 2% the political landscape of Venezuela has changed for good. Even though I was an ardent fan of Hugo Chavez stand on national economic interest; forcing Multinationals to give a comprehensible amount of taxes and royalties to Venezuela(not the 3% of Tanzania), I could not agree with his moves to make himself a President for Life (kwetu sisi itakuwa Chama Twawala Milele kama wanavyojitamba).

Venezuela's Chávez chastenedRejection of bid for more power shows limits of support
By Juan Forero
The Washington Post
updated 4:39 a.m. CT, Tues., Dec. 4, 2007
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CARACAS, Venezuela - A day after the first electoral loss of Hugo Chávez's presidency, the calculus of political affairs in Venezuela has fundamentally changed.A once-demoralized, inept opposition won an important victory in Sunday's national referendum on constitutional changes, exposing weaknesses in Chávez's traditional base of support and slowing, at least for the moment, a process that would have eroded the country's system of checks and balances.
"The first thing we did was to defeat that giant leap of the president to his totalitarian project," Américo Martín, a longtime leftist leader here opposed to Chávez, said Monday. "That has an enormous significance. The second thing we did was to show that the vote does work here."Analysts said the rejection of 69 constitutional amendments demonstrated that important segments of Chávez's base of support -- the poor and the working class -- are not willing to accept his vision wholesale, no matter how popular his social and economic programs. Even some of those who had ardently backed the president in the past had their doubts this time.
The president acknowledged the significance of his loss after midnight Monday, minutes after authorities announced that voters had rejected, 51 percent to 49 percent, amendments that would have permitted him to run for office indefinitely, control the country's finances and appoint governors. Chávez noted that 7.3 million of his countrymen had reelected him last December, but that his supporters didn't turn out in the same numbers this time.
"We had 3 million fewer votes than we received a year ago, imagine that," he said in an interview on state television.
Chávez has five more years in office and under the current constitution cannot be reelected. He could call for an elected constituent assembly to change the charter, though it could prove difficult for him to ensure such a body is full of his supporters.Concession
During a predawn speech Monday in which he conceded the defeat of his proposal, Chávez said he thought the majority of Venezuelans still supported his government. But he said that the high abstention rate among his supporters should prompt deep reflection in his populist government, now ending its ninth year in power."They abstained because of doubts, fears, because there wasn't enough time or preparation to explain, perhaps," he said. "But there you find many political elements and statistics that we need to take into account to continue this battle."Many voters said the proposed changes to the constitution would simply have given the president too much power. He already controls the National Assembly, the courts and most state and local governments. In one Caracas district, Carlos Sanabria, 44, said that he had voted for Chávez or his reforms in every election since 1998 but that he could not back him in the referendum.
"Everything is not for him, like he thinks," said Sanabria, a shoemaker. "We're not in Cuba -- this is Venezuela."

The opposition was deflated after dramatically losing a 2004 recall referendum and then last year's presidential election. But Sunday's outcome triggered euphoria among the university students, church leaders, politicians and even former Chávez allies who had risen up against the president's plan.Analysts, as well as some of the president's foes, said the opposition movement remains fragile. While it coalesced against an unpopular proposal, it still lacks a cohesive message, a high-profile leader and alternatives to Chávez's so-called Bolivarian Revolution. The government's myriad social programs are immensely popular with the poor masses.
"This result is more one of discontent in the internal base of Chavismo than a victory for the opposition," said Margarita López Maya, a historian at the Central University of Venezuela. "They continue to have many challenges. There are still no clear proposals to counter the Bolivarian project. The Bolivarian project is still there, with contradictions and weaknesses, but there."

Game Theory

JF-Expert Member

Game Theory

JF-Expert Member

A major lesson from Caracas to CCM; People get tired of populists and empty promises. JK, Msekwa, Makamba, EL, Nchimbi & Karume, please read the writings on the wall!!

By a small margin, just 2% the political landscape of Venezuela has changed for good. Even though I was an ardent fan of Hugo Chavez stand on national economic interest; forcing Multinationals to give a comprehensible amount of taxes and royalties to Venezuela(not the 3% of Tanzania), I could not agree with his moves to make himself a President for Life (kwetu sisi itakuwa Chama Twawala Milele kama wanavyojitamba).

Not sure about your knowledge of Latin American Politics but your arguments are weak and lack any substance!

If you don't think that ordinary Venezuelans by a large majority did not want social security (pension), 6 hour workday, new housing and the other things in the referendum, you are naive.

44% turnout, is not normal in Venezuela. One of the techniques used was that employers that had people working Sunday made it clear that their employees would be looked upon badly if they took off to vote, although it is their right. Many of the Chavez supporters are household servants, waiters etc. I know at least two wealthy families that told me they would do their part in this way. Long time employees will not risk their jobs. The oligarchs are getting upset and they will become more and more oppressive as they figure out a way, with or without US help, to overthrow Chavez and return the masses to the status they had before Chavez, virtually indentured servants, uneducated and living in favellas.

Furthermore, You were also wrong in comparing opposition in Venezuela and Tanzania.Our opposition have no any meaningful or indepth policies be it from Education to Foreign policy.

Please come up with some substance in your arguments then we probably might have a meaningful debate

Rev. Kishoka

JF-Expert Member

Rev. Kishoka

JF-Expert Member

Not sure about your knowledge of Latin American Politics but your arguments are weak and lack any substance!

If you don't think that ordinary Venezuelans by a large majority did not want social security (pension), 6 hour workday, new housing and the other things in the referendum, you are naive.

44% turnout, is not normal in Venezuela. One of the techniques used was that employers that had people working Sunday made it clear that their employees would be looked upon badly if they took off to vote, although it is their right. Many of the Chavez supporters are household servants, waiters etc. I know at least two wealthy families that told me they would do their part in this way. Long time employees will not risk their jobs. The oligarchs are getting upset and they will become more and more oppressive as they figure out a way, with or without US help, to overthrow Chavez and return the masses to the status they had before Chavez, virtually indentured servants, uneducated and living in favellas.

Furthermore, You were also wrong in comparing opposition in Venezuela and Tanzania.Our opposition have no any meaningful or indepth policies be it from Education to Foreign policy.

Please come up with some substance in your arguments then we probably might have a meaningful debate

We are in different continents, different GDP and all those fancy statistics as you listed, however the bottom line, we need to learn from them based on mechanisms on democratic process and not simply disatisfaction due to data!

You kind of sound like those who continue to argue that we are stil 46 years after independence so there is no need to speed up the process of our development or learn from American, Japanese or Brazilians!

We are in different continents, different GDP and all those fancy statistics as you listed, however the bottom line, we need to learn from them based on mechanisms on democratic process and not simply disatisfaction due to data!

You kind of sound like those who continue to argue that we are stil 46 years after independence so there is no need to speed up the process of our development or learn from American, Japanese or Brazilians!

The problem is not about Tanzanias opposition learning from Venezuela but rather they need to tell us what they stand for. Lets take Mr Freeman Mbowe of CHADEMA as an example.What freeman has done is is essentially a PR exercise based on positioning and I think it shows a lack of conviction muulize Mtanznia yoyote yue ambaye haipendi CCM akuambie sera za CHADEMA ni zipi kama utapata jibu if he's going to present substance then I welcome the opportunity for a proper debate because so far he's all about populist gimmicks.

And dont tel me about CUF either at most they have been reactive rather than proactive

Kitila Mkumbo

Verified Member

This is a different debate all together. I don't agree with you that the opposition does not have an agenda. I do agree with you however, that a majority of our people do not know what the opposition stands for. But again, the other important question is this, are the people really interested with listening about the political agenda? Again, another big question, if CCM have clear and probably good policies as many people tend to claim,and yet they have failed the country enormously, is it really the question of agenda or it is a matter of competence? As I said the issue you raised above in one sentence needs a different forum/thread-this thread is about Hugo and lets stick to that.

Game Theory

JF-Expert Member

Game Theory

JF-Expert Member

This is a different debate all together. I don't agree with you that the opposition does not have an agenda. I do agree with you however, that a majority of our people do not know what the opposition stands for. But again, the other important question is this, are the people really interested with listening about the political agenda? Again, another big question, if CCM have clear and probably good policies as many people tend to claim,and yet they have failed the country enormously, is it really the question of agenda or it is a matter of competence? As I said the issue you raised above in one sentence needs a different forum/thread-this thread is about Hugo and lets stick to that.

Kitila,
I bet you know JK and his team do not lose sleep because of opposition but he is more scared of what Jambo Forum will come up with while our PM Mr Lowassa is more scared of Mwanakijiji and Mwanahalisi newspaper than Mtikila na saa ya ukombozi ni sasa

The tragedy is that, confronted by the most corrupt, hypocritical, inefficient, illiberal, discredited government in history, what millions of voters are looking for is an alternative which might put an end to the sleazy, self-regarding sham of the CCM era by displaying some "masculine" firmness in improving our bloated but inefficient public sector and the out-of-control bureaucracy which is destroying our health service, education and police force; which might encourage enterprise; which might restore democracy to local government; bring back some balance into our public finances; sort out the shambles into which our Armed Forces who are about to be taken to Darfur are sliding; uphold Tanzania's national interest, as we suffocate under the malfunctioning system of government represented by the Chama cha Mapinduzi.

In other words, what much of the country is crying out for is a party which represents precisely those values which both MAALIM SEFU,FREEMAN MBOVE,CHEYO AND MTIKILA and their respective political parties that they represent seems so hellbent on abandoning.The only clear message the mentioned personalities seems to have put over to the voters is their sentimental "MABOMU na MIHADHARA KILA KUKICHA on which their dotty little gimmicks and practical ignorance have simply made them a laughing stock.

Thats why i said, the current opposition in Tanzania is nothing but useless

Pundit

JF-Expert Member

Pundit

JF-Expert Member

The problem with Tanzania, and many African nations in our bracket (Highly Indebted Least Developed Countries) is that we do not have a substantive middle class.If you do not have a substantive middle class, you are prone to fall for the politics of gimmicks, mabomu,empty election promises not to mention the politics of personalities rather than policies.This is why people do not know CHADEMA's agenda.

I suspect CHADEMA may not have a well developed agenda, but even if they do have one, where is their forum? Hivi CHADEMA wana gazeti na redio? Network yao ina promote vipi policies zao? even if they have a paper that explain their economic policy and foreign policy in detail, will the people (non middle class) whose immediate concern is bread and butter care? How many people read Rai versus magazeti ya udaku?

To make it worse the opposition seems focused on winning the presidential election rather than building up support for parliament seats.

There is an apparent vicious cycle of poverty that tempts one to think it is there by design, rather than accident of nature of impotency on the part of our leaders.It is in CCM's interest to have a country with poor uneducated people because it is much easier to control these people than an educated middle class.

Tanzania's opposition will not solve political problems, least of all unseat CCM, until there is an economic revolution.the CCM government is strategically located to control any economic revolution and as a result, political revolution by ballot.

What makes you believe this? In a country where presidential elections are held at the same time as parliamentary elections, how can a serious political party around campaining and say we only want parliamentary seats but not presidency? Are you kidding? In fact what you are saying here is not new; it was firstly said by Nyerere in 1990s and many lazy thinking lads picked up and have been repeating the same sentiment without seriously digesting why Nyerere said so then and what would the implications of following such advice now and the context in which it was said then. How does it make worse for the opposition to think of winning a presidential seat?

Ok, lets look at some facts. Since its inception in 1992, CHADEMA never put a presidential candidate until last elections in 2005. Yet all those rounds that it did not put a presidential candidate and sought only parliamentary seats, it did very badly. Indeed, the best performance for CHADEMA was in 2005 when it did put a presidential candidate. Now, I ask again where is the evidence to show that not wanting the presidency would improve opposition's political fortunes?

Can we learn to make our arguments basing on some iota of evidence rather than shouting?

Pundit

JF-Expert Member

Pundit

JF-Expert Member

Presidential elections are more high stakes, more expensive, of a larger scope than parliamentary elections.Do not get me wrong, I am not suggesting that the opposition put down all efforts at the presidency, far from it.Rather, the opposition seems to be focused more on the presidential (which they have a lesser chance to win) than parliamentary (which they have a better chance to win)

The idea is, to prove a party's effectiveness to Tanzanians through parliamentary merit.Sasa hivi kama Zitto atafanya kweli kwenye tume ya madini,kuna watu wengi 2010 watakuwa tayari kuwapa nafasi CHADEMA.With increased representation CHADEMA will posses the correct leverage to push for its policies and eventually be a force to reckon with, possibly to even unseat CCM.

My point is there has to be a readjustment of priorities.Right now the opposition, just like everybody in Africa, is plagued by the so called "big man" syndrome where you have people like John Cheyo practically being UDP. This has to stop and parties must develop from the ground up, building grassroot support before entertaining high ambitions.

Mzee if you have a problem with understanding matters related to Intl Affairs why even bother to punch them in here? How about getting your facts right?

On Musharaff I made a piece on Pakistan and their politics with Mushraff sometimes bacj but since we have anti Itl Affairs regulations in Siasa it was moved but search engine is your friend

As far as Chavez is concerned, would you hold my hand in condemning the UK and Australia for not having term limits for its prime ministers. Maybe then we can move on to the US Congress.Venezuela is democratic and Chavez's loss proves it. Now no one can keep talking nonsense about "Why does he keep winning?"

Well, now we get into the depths of the problem of our so called opposition parties have in a first-past-the-post system. CHADEMA are doing well at the moment; but as long as they are the third party they can't get to be the governing party in one leap.CHADEMA strategy for some time has been to replace the CUF as the main opposition party and then get into power. This is probably the best option (though it might not work of course due to a large constituency of CUF) in Pemba

Game Theory

JF-Expert Member

Game Theory

JF-Expert Member

The problem with Tanzania, and many African nations in our bracket (Highly Indebted Least Developed Countries) is that we do not have a substantive middle class.If you do not have a substantive middle class, you are prone to fall for the politics of gimmicks, mabomu,empty election promises not to mention the politics of personalities rather than policies.This is why people do not know CHADEMA's agenda.

I suspect CHADEMA may not have a well developed agenda, but even if they do have one, where is their forum? Hivi CHADEMA wana gazeti na redio? Network yao ina promote vipi policies zao? even if they have a paper that explain their economic policy and foreign policy in detail, will the people (non middle class) whose immediate concern is bread and butter care? How many people read Rai versus magazeti ya udaku?

To make it worse the opposition seems focused on winning the presidential election rather than building up support for parliament seats.

There is an apparent vicious cycle of poverty that tempts one to think it is there by design, rather than accident of nature of impotency on the part of our leaders.It is in CCM's interest to have a country with poor uneducated people because it is much easier to control these people than an educated middle class.

Tanzania's opposition will not solve political problems, least of all unseat CCM, until there is an economic revolution.the CCM government is strategically located to control any economic revolution and as a result, political revolution by ballot.

Asha Abdala

JF-Expert Member

Mzee if you have a problem with understanding matters related to Intl Affairs why even bother to punch them in here? How about getting your facts right?

On Musharaff I made a piece on Pakistan and their politics with Mushraff sometimes bacj but since we have anti Itl Affairs regulations in Siasa it was moved but search engine is your friend

As far as Chavez is concerned, would you hold my hand in condemning the UK and Australia for not having term limits for its prime ministers. Maybe then we can move on to the US Congress.Venezuela is democratic and Chavez's loss proves it. Now no one can keep talking nonsense about "Why does he keep winning?"

Wakati huo wapinzani walipo tangu 1995 wanafanya nini?

Blame it on the so called opposition

It seems to me that these so called opposition parties have still to master the art of effective Opposition.

I definitely share your concern about concentration of power, but to make presumptions about Chavez being a dictator without looking at the case closely isn't really helpful, either, and rather demonstrates an inability to look beyond our Western media propaganda system.Hebu njoo na substance kidogo ili tuwe na mwelekeo wa hii mjadala badala ya sweeping statements

Waulize wapinzania wao wanafanya nini kuhusu hili?

Well, now we get into the depths of the problem of our so called opposition parties have in a first-past-the-post system. CHADEMA are doing well at the moment; but as long as they are the third party they can't get to be the governing party in one leap.CHADEMA strategy for some time has been to replace the CUF as the main opposition party and then get into power. This is probably the best option (though it might not work of course due to a large constituency of CUF) in Pemba