Tuesday, April 29, 2008

So while the rest of the world focuses on whether Reverend Wright is a horse's ass or just an ass, there are a few other points of interest to watch over the next week leading up to Indiana and North Carolina primaries.

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The McCain and Clinton stances on suspending the $.18/gallon gas tax is a classic case of pandering to people's simplistic understanding of issues. I use about 20 gallons a week for my 40 minute commute. I would guess my commute is on the longer side of the American average but let's play this out a little. 20 gallons x $.18 per gallon is $3.60 per week in savings x 14 weeks that they propose suspending the tax gives a total of $50.40 in savings. The cost in lost highway repairs would be about $12 billion. The results of which would suspend or reduce highway projects and could lead to job losses of 310,000 workers.

Of course Hillary suggests taxing oil companies to make up for the lost taxes. That's all well and good, but aren't they just going to raise prices and pass it along to consumers? Barack is going to take a fair amount of flak for not supporting this tax roll back but that's the price you pay for being an out of touch elitist (I mean a rational adult).

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If you haven't had a chance to read Jimmy Carter's Op-Ed piece in the NY Times on his meeting with Hamas it is worth a read. It is a great example of how progress can be made when you sit down with your adversaries instead of stand on the sidelines and insult them. If you had a negative opinion on Carter's visit to meet with Hamas, this may make you feel differently.

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While the media clamors for a potential John Edwards endorsement, John Edwards is choosing to back his self interest. He is clearly leaning towards Clinton but by backing the wrong horse he risks alienating Obama. He has a better chance in getting a position (AG) in an Obama administration than a Clinton administration that will be packed with cronies.

By staying neutral he preserves his role to try to play party leader down the road, it is his only position of power at this point.

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While I am one of those people that like watching election returns and exit polls, too much is made of exit polls. Most states allow early voting so when you see exit polls skew to one candidate or the other it may not reflect the candidacy that is better organized and got their people to vote early. Both Texas and Ohio numbers were severely skewed by this (Pennsylvania less so). When you hear North Carolina exit polls, discount them entirely because of the heavy early voting.

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The Boston Globe chastised Hillary Clinton for her reckless and irresponsible comment towards Iran during the final days leading up to the Penn primary. Her statements got a lot of press, but didn't draw nearly enough outrage for the comment's Bushlike bravado and stupidity. What will Hillary do next as the days count down in NC and Indiana?

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The New York Times has an article about the fact that over 200,000 registered Republicans voted against John McCain in a virtually uncontested election. I mentioned this last week, but hadn't heard anyone else mention it. Watch for results in NC and Indiana for signs of potential trouble down the road.