Abstract: For decision-makers in the cities of Toledo, Dayton, Elyria, and Avon Lake, Ohio, climate change is quickly becoming a planning and policy concern. The latest climate science focusing on the Great Lakes region largely supports these concerns. Climate models predict warmer temperatures, shifting rain and snow patterns, and an increased likelihood of extreme events by the end of the 21st century. Scientists also predict that lake levels will likely be lower, with additional impacts on aquatic species, as well as impacts upon the industries of tourism and trade. The anticipated impacts of climate change will likely not be distributed equally across each city included in this study. However, societies have the capacity to adapt in the face of climatic change and have done so in the past. Researchers have identified a variety of resources, assets, and governance structures that increase the ability and likelihood of successful adaptation—even in the face of significant uncertainty.
In order to anticipate and successfully respond to these impacts, cities in the Great Lakes region need to better understand the opportunities and constraints within their current governance structures to build their adaptive capacity. To evaluate this capacity, we conducted an Integrated Assessment (IA) of the four cities mentioned above in the state of Ohio. Our study takes a broad view of the political, social, and ecological causes, consequences, and potential solutions to climate vulnerability and impact reduction. The results of our study describe the capacities and constraints each city possesses, as well as identifies best practices cities can implement to take advantage of these capacities and overcome constraints.
While each city had specific capacities and constraints based on our analysis, several overarching themes emerged. First, decision-makers in each city expressed interest in adapting to climate change. Leaders within city governments are working to connect issues of sustainability and adaptation to the core mission of their departments, as well as forming policy networks across the city, to accomplish broader adaptation and sustainability goals. Employees throughout each city also demonstrated dedication to improving the vibrancy of the cities within which they work. They displayed a depth of knowledge and creativity in accomplishing department tasks in the face of severe financial constraints. Overall, leadership and the quality of current city employees emerged as key capacities throughout our study.
However, there are significant constraints to adaptation as well. Two broad trends identified are scarce financial resources and limited access to scientific knowledge. Interviewees reported financial resources significantly constrained adaptation and sustainability action. Identifying methods to utilize co-benefits of standard operating procedures and practices to enhance climate adaptation needs, as well as increasing flexibility in funding structures, are strategies that can aid in minimizing this constraint. Moreover, consideration of the potential distribution of impacts from climate change when implementing adaptation and sustainability policies can ensure the most effective, economic and equitable actions are taken. The availability of usable climate knowledge, along with other kinds of knowledge needed to inform decision-making about adaptation, is limited across the four cities. Knowledge in this case includes not only an understanding of anticipated climate change impacts, but also how it interplays with other kinds of knowledge (e.g. socioeconomic, health and ecosystem management related data) that inform cities’ decision-making.