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Well, not to the same extent really. But there's potential for a lot of fracturing - at least if the rebels don't manage to coordinate themselves into some sort of organized structure (unlike the current situation). Cyrenaica in particular is very splintered, and this is currently visible to some extent in that Bengasi doesn't really have any control over the other cities there.

Originally Posted by Double Edge

Have to get the tourists back.

Germany (one of the primary source of tourists in Tunisia) just upped its travel warning for the country on February 27th btw. It now reads:"Travellers in Tunisia should restrict themselves to the coastal tourist areas including Djerba. We urgently dissuade from unnecessary travels to other regions. Hotel complexes should only be left as part of guided tours."

The effect of the revolution so far was mostly some pressure on prices. You can get a one-week vacation in Monastir or Hammamet including flights from Germany for €270 (!) now, four-day trips to Zarzis close to the Libyan border run about €400-450. Similar prices apply for Egypt.

Edit: Scratch that - just found a offer for one week in Monastir for €187. Take-off on March 22nd from Düsseldorf. Four spots still free.

I kind of get the feeling that the ebb & flow of clashes is aimed at "did you have enough and are you going to stop now?" mental push. Most of them are raiding and damage inflicting in nature with no real battle lines pushed to enforce control.

While the rebels have a strong presence in Ras Lanuf, they told Al Jazeera's Rowland that the town was still held by Gaddafi loyalists.

The interesting part in this article is the tank push on Misruta which is very important in a tribal sense.

Meanwhile, the European Union has sent experts into Libya to get "real time" information on humanitarian and evacuation efforts there.
Read more of our Libya coverage

"I have decided to dispatch this high level mission to provide me with first-hand, real-time information to feed into the discussions leading up to Friday's extraordinary European Council when I will update heads of state and government on the situation," Catherine Ashton, EU foreign minister, said on Sunday.

Translation = Noone knows WT* is going on on the ground because everyone keeps claiming victory.

Rebels will not pursue Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi over crimes they say he has committed if he steps down from his post in the next 72 hours, the head of the rebel National Libyan Council has told Al Jazeera.

"If he leaves Libya immediately, during 72 hours, and stops the bombardment, we as Libyans will step back from pursuing him for crimes," Mustafa Abdel Jalil, head of the opposition National Council, told Al Jazeera on Tuesday.

He said the deadline would not be extended beyond 72 hours.

A few days ago any negotiation was out of the question.

"Based on our love for our country we have proposed to the [Gaddafi's] indirect negotiators that a solution can be reached," Jalil told Al Jazeera.

"Conditions are that firstly he stops all combat in the fields, secondly that his departure is within 72 hours; thirdly we may waive our right of domestic prosecution ... for the crimes of oppression, persecution, starvation and massacres.

"We will have to wait and see what the regime's response is."

The rest of the article is very telling, its an ultimatum of strength from a position of weakness. It is very likely that the representatives of the gov't tried to negotiate surrender options for the rebels rather than vice versa.

The video is very interesting. The guy says that Kadaffy announced that he is no longer in power... around the 4 min mark... Now then why ask him to step down if he is no longer controlling anything?
This goes to my argument that its more of a tribal issue, and in the end there will be a struggle against granting power to a tribe of a different province in your own.

What is particularly interesting about the "No-Fly" zone is that most people ignore the consequence of once it being established having sorties to favor one or the other side which in essence becomes not just defensive but offensive intervention.

I posted this in the "no fly zone " thread also................

This is turning into a cluster real quick............. normally I am more patient with things at this level as I cannot influence the outcome........ as far as I am concerned on this......Europe should lead the way, and the UK needs to be up front............. we are fast aproaching a no win situation ....qadaffi is a bastard of the first order and if anyone thinks he will forget all this rhetoric thats being spouted now by all governments well more fool them.............. Its gone to far he has to be taken down and out.

This is turning into a cluster real quick............. normally I am more patient with things at this level as I cannot influence the outcome........ as far as I am concerned on this......Europe should lead the way, and the UK needs to be up front............. we are fast aproaching a no win situation ....qadaffi is a bastard of the first order and if anyone thinks he will forget all this rhetoric thats being spouted now by all governments well more fool them.............. Its gone to far he has to be taken down and out.

So what your saying installing a client leader is better for external groups because it gives them a media win they can showcase while it may not materially improve things for the people in the country in the long run. We should do it because it is "right" for us at least...

I do not think Europe or US picking a tribal leader from the east will satisfy the tribes in the west. The only way it gets sorted is if they fight it out and someone wins without outside interference. Democracy is great the problem is thus far the US and Europe have backed almost every single failed regime in there (at least from the perspective of people living under them).

So what your saying installing a client leader is better for external groups because it gives them a media win they can showcase while it may not materially improve things for the people in the country in the long run. We should do it because it is "right" for us at least...

I do not think Europe or US picking a tribal leader from the east will satisfy the tribes in the west. The only way it gets sorted is if they fight it out and someone wins without outside interference. Democracy is great the problem is thus far the US and Europe have backed almost every single failed regime in there (at least from the perspective of people living under them).

You are entitled to your opinion as am I ......... right or wrong........... as I said if you think qadaffi will forget any of this you are sadly mistaken........... oh and I never picked the rebels to win................ just pointed out what I thought was going to be a hinderance to them......................let them fight it out........... whats your plan for dealing with an even more arrogant and twisted dictator after the fighting is over?

His sons will take his place.Either way the old man is done.What is reasonably sure right now is that while a good portion of the population want him gone,an undetermined one wants him to stay.Like it has been written quite often,we know nothing of the rebels.If they can bring only an estimated 5-10000 armed men to battle after capturing army and police barracks there is something fishy about the commitment of the majority.It's true that revolutions are made by violent minorities,but if the more people aren't willing to die for their cause,it's their problem.

Limited informations lead to wrong conclusions,but so far that's what I could gather.

Those who know don't speak
He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

You are entitled to your opinion as am I ......... right or wrong........... as I said if you think qadaffi will forget any of this you are sadly mistaken........... oh and I never picked the rebels to win................ just pointed out what I thought was going to be a hinderance to them......................let them fight it out........... whats your plan for dealing with an even more arrogant and twisted dictator after the fighting is over?

Mutual economic beneficial trade, no matter how arrogant there is stuff they need globally and that they can provide. Whatever they do internally for the most part should not be up to us to decide, very limiting circumstances excepted.

I am certain had the rebels won they would not have forget anyone whom sided against them either so that argument is moot. Hurting others in the name of democracy or autocracy is still hurting people no matter which way.

His sons will take his place.Either way the old man is done.What is reasonably sure right now is that while a good portion of the population want him gone,an undetermined one wants him to stay.Like it has been written quite often,we know nothing of the rebels.If they can bring only an estimated 5-10000 armed men to battle after capturing army and police barracks there is something fishy about the commitment of the majority.It's true that revolutions are made by violent minorities,but if the more people aren't willing to die for their cause,it's their problem.

Limited informations lead to wrong conclusions,but so far that's what I could gather.

There's nothing fishy about people not wanting to go up against tanks and artillery armed with rifles, toyotas and no training. Also nothing shocking about former military elements holding back and conserving forces while letting most strident protesters get themselves killed. Really par for the course in this kind of thing. Information on the ground from liberated cities, however, make it clear that the peopel don't want Qadhaffi back under any circumstances.

cyppok - response

that argument is moot.

I am not interested in debating this, its gone to far, we had to ensure the rebels won this.......my opinion right or wrong time will tell......... if qadaffi pulls this off and its looking like he will the conequences will be far reaching ............ bury your head in the sand........you might think you can "negotiate" with qadaffi and his boys....

RSM,if the European powers involved in this mess can't be relied to send a few SF teams and 2 cargo planes with weapons than they deserve to negociate with the likes of Gaddafi&sons.The French have done it a dozen of times in their African area of influence.And I suppose SAS still has some maps left since 1942 .Afterall they used maps from the 30's to chase Iraqi Scuds.

Those who know don't speak
He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

RSM,if the European powers involved in this mess can't be relied to send a few SF teams and 2 cargo planes with weapons than they deserve to negociate with the likes of Gaddafi&sons.The French have done it a dozen of times in their African area of influence.And I suppose SAS still has some maps left since 1942 .Afterall they used maps from the 30's to chase Iraqi Scuds.

I could not agree more , I have already stated Europe should deal with this and the UK needs to be at the front.