At the moment, drought and fire are ravaging much of the planet. This past June was the fifth warmest June on record, and the 402nd consecutive month above the 20th century average.

And the turbulent weather could continue, as the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center says there is a 70 per cent chance of another El Nino occurring this winter.

El Nino is part of Earth’s natural process, characterized by a warming in the Pacific Ocean with repercussions across the globe, including higher temperatures and greater precipitation in various regions.

Following a summer of wild heat, it may seem worrying to know that another El Nino is on its way. But there’s no need to panic.

“We’re probably looking at a weak to maybe moderate [El Nino], but certainly nothing like 2015-2016,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “That’s just not in the cards.”

Halpert notes there’s still time for the weather agency to refine its El Nino forecast — the next one will be issued on Aug. 9 — if it develops at all.

But if it does develop, the effects in Canada will be felt more in the winter, particularly in the West, where temperatures would be warmer than average.

It’s another story around the world. Typical El Nino-related effects are shifts in weather patterns: rain moves from areas where it would normally occur, leaving some areas in drought. After the El Nino event of 2015–2016, for example, the world’s coral experienced the worst bleaching events ever seen.

Warming world

This year has been a La Nina year — the opposite of El Nino: Instead of waters being warmer than usual in the Pacific, they’re cooler than normal.

If an El Nino does manifest by the end of the year, it won’t push the global temperature shockingly upward. Rather, it will just slightly raise the planet’s temperature higher than it would have otherwise been.

That’s because the planet’s response to an El Nino takes time, says Derek Arndt, chief of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) monitoring branch.

And though this has been the summer of heat — with almost two months to go — he said forecasters aren’t expecting it to surpass the hottest year on record, which occurred in 2016.

But it will still be one for the books — and Arndt says that’s concerning.

“It’s really important to consider that where we finish this year — [whether it] be third or fourth or fifth or something like that — it will be warmer than anything we may have seen five years ago,” Arndt said.

“We’re in a new neighbourhood, and we’re competing in a new neighbourhood, and we have left the climate of the 20th century in the dust — and we’re in the process of leaving the climate of the last decade behind.”