Monday, November 3, 2014

There's no question that Mark Warner screwed up big time by injecting himself into the struggle over State Sen. Phil Puckett's resignation.

But it doesn't seem likely that it will cost him his Senate seat tomorrow.

Averaging the last two independent polls in the race, puts Warner ahead with 48% of the vote to Republican Ed Gillespie's 38% and Libertarian Robert Sarvis' 4%. That leaves 10% undecided, which is a figure I very much doubt.

It doesn't look, from this vantage point, like anybody on either side is very engaged in this, Virginia's off-off year election, except rabid partisans.

That means voters will probably go with who they know. They know Warner. They don't know Gillespie.

My prediction? Warner 52%, Gillespie 44%, Sarvis 4%.

That's a closer election than Warner anticipated going into this year. I don't think there's any question that his involvement in the Puckett matter -- he was trying talk a Democratic state senator from resigning and throwing the majority in the Senate to the Republicans, which meant that a Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act was dead -- has damaged Warner's brand. Republicans reportedly offered Sen. Phil Puckett a possible seat on the the Tobacco Commission and confirmation of his daughter as a judge. Warner, one of a cadre of Democrats trying to keep Puckett from resigning, reportedly mentioned that Puckett's daughter might be a candidate for a federal judgeship.

State Republicans, stung by heir own ethic scandals involving Gov. Bob McDonnell, former Del. Phil Hamilton and current Del. Terry Kilgore, who is credited/blamed with offering Puckett inducements to resign, jumped all over Warner's role in Puckettgate -- as they should have.

Republicans nationally are pushing to take back the Senate -- Warner's seat was not one they really targeted. He was seen as a strong, popular incumbent and they had enough opportunities to pick up seats that they could take control without winning Warner's seat.

And, I think they will. But, whoever wins the Senate, it will be by a very small margin. Probably continuing the gridlock we've been seeing in Washington for at least the last six years.

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Virginia Pundit is an attempt to discuss national, state and local issues without the artificial "he said, she said" format imposed by newspaper concepts of "objectivity." I want to be fair, but I also acknowledge that sometimes one side is clearly right and the other side is clearly wrong.

Read more about the origins of the blog HERE. This is the first post, which also contains more personal biography and an off-color joke I snuck in by quoting a (semi) famous novelist.

About the Blogger

Steve Vaughan covers state and city politics and government, tourism and business for the Virginia Gazette. He has 20 years of experience and is an award-winning reporter and columnist. He lives in Richmond with his wife, son, dog and two cats. His daughter attends college in North Carolina. Vaughan is an Orthodox Skeptic and licensed wiseacre.