While Environmentalists Celebrate ‘Earth Hour,’ They Should Thank Fracking for Lowering Emissions

On Saturday during “Earth Hour,” millions of people
will abstain from using electricity to draw attention to the energy
sector’s ecological footprint and other environmental issues. There
is heartening news for those who choose to keep their lights
on-whether as part of the “Human
Achievement Hour” counter-movement or just as part of their
everyday routine.

The International Energy Agency has announced that global energy-related carbon
dioxide emissions were flat for the third year in a row in 2016
even as the world economy grew, indicating a sustained decoupling
of emissions and economic activity. This is arguably as momentous
as the
well-documented decoupling of agricultural land area from crop
yields and the decoupling of forest area loss from growth in
population.

It is evident that market
forces, rather than government mandates, have driven the decoupling
of emissions and economic growth.

Largely responsible for flatlining emissions is a widespread
shift from coal to cleaner-burning natural gas, which
has become much more cost-effective thanks to the innovation of
fracking, a product of private-sector competition. Other factors
that may deserve some credit for that trend include advances in
energy efficiency, the connection of new nuclear reactors to the
grid, and better renewable energy technology. (Although it should
be noted that state-mandated, centrally-planned transitions from
fossil fuels to green energy have resulted in numerous problems, as
Germany is finding out).

Last year, global emissions stood still even while the world
economy grew by 3.1 percent. Emissions fell in the United States
and China, and remained stable in Europe. That compensated for
emissions increases elsewhere in the world, as often-demonized
cheap fossil fuels helped
poor countries to develop and expanded
electricity access to those in need.

The market-based fracking revolution enabled the U.S. to reduce
its emissions more than any other country, and also lowered Americans’ electricity bills. The
average American household now devotes less than 4 percent of its
annual spending to energy.

U.S. coal demand fell by 11 percent as natural gas became more
cost-competitive and, for the first time in history, the country
generated more electricity from natural gas than from coal. Global
coal demand fell as well. Even as the move from coal to shale gas
decreased U.S. emissions by 3 percent, bringing U.S. emissions to
their lowest level since 1992, the U.S. economy expanded by 1.6
percent.

Yet, it was not Environmental Protection Agency regulations or
costly subsidies for unreliable wind and solar energy that
brought down emissions, but rather a technological breakthrough
delivered by the market.

Even the U.S. Energy Information Administration acknowledges
the crucial role of fracking in reducing U.S. emissions, and the
International Energy Administration agrees. Falling emissions are:
“a sign that market dynamics and technological improvements matter.
This is especially true in the United States, where abundant shale
gas supplies have become a cheap power source,” according to IEA Executive Director Faith
Birol.

China, similarly, reduced its emissions by 1 percent last year
while its economy grew by 6.7 percent. The country increased its
nuclear capacity by a quarter, generating power from five new
nuclear reactors. This was part of a broader global trend. In 2016,
global nuclear net capacity reached its highest point since 1993.
China also began shifting from coal to natural gas as the latter
became cheaper, but natural gas still only supplies 6 percent of
China’s energy. In comparison, natural gas now supplies about a
quarter of all energy worldwide. The emissions-reducing potential
of a larger-scale Chinese switch from coal to natural gas is
considerable.

It is evident that market forces, rather than government
mandates, have driven the decoupling of emissions and economic
growth. Only the future will reveal the full potential of human
ingenuity to supply humanity’s needs while reducing harmful
environmental impacts. In the meantime, on Saturday during “Earth
Hour,” Americans and Chinese who choose to keep the lights on
should know that the environmental impact of doing so is less than
in years past.