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Friday, 25 October 2013

Cambodian Spring:Can the opposition guide a popular protest movement?

Source: The Wall Street Journal (24/10/2013)

The Cambodia National Rescue Party faces a difficult decision. In the
July 28 election, the opposition party won nearly half the seats in
parliament in an election rampant with allegations of fraud. Prime
Minister
Hun Sen,
whohas ruled for nearly 30 years, offered a deal in which the
CNRP ends a boycott of parliament in return for some positions ofinfluence. In effect that would mean giving up demands for an
independent investigation of the election and recognizing Hun Sen's
legitimacy. Should the opposition lawmakers compromise or stay on the
streets?

Their choice may depend on the turnout at a three-day
demonstration underway in Phnom Penh. The election marked a sea change
in Cambodian politics, as voters overcame their trepidation that the
ruling Cambodian People's Party would take reprisals against dissenters.
Once the culture of fear was broken, public demands for change and the
removal of Hun Sen came into the open. They have grown stronger by theday.

There's one highly visible indicator of the transition:
Before the election, few opposition supporters dared display CNRP
materials. Now regime loyalists are nervously taking down their posters.

All
this has some in Phnom Penh starting to think that the CPP mightjettison strongman Hun Sen in order to save itself. The city
administration initially refused permission for the opposition to march
around the city to present petitions at various embassies, but then the
Interior Ministry, led by the head of a rival CPP faction, allowed it to
proceed.

Leader of the opposition Cambodia National Rescue
Party (CNRP) Sam Rainsy (L) and a Buddhist monk (R) raise their hands
during a demonstration at the Democracy Park in Phnom Penh on October
24..
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Meanwhile, the CNRP has little control over the tiger it is
riding. Cambodia's population is so young that not only were most born
after the Khmer Rouge, many don't remember CNRP leader
Sam Rainsy's
ineffectual opposition in the 2000s before he was forced into
exile. That worked to the CNRP's benefit when Hun Sen allowed Mr. Rainsy
to return days before the election. But it also means the opposition
may not be able to strike a deal with the CPP because the protest
movement would then turn against it.

That raises the specter of a
repeat of post-Arab Spring chaos if a compromise can't be found.
Unfortunately Mr. Rainsy hasn't shown the kind of statesmanship that
would be required to forge a new consensus. For instance, he has
consistently stoked populist resentments against Vietnamese living in
Cambodia as a way to undermine the government.

The CNRP's appeals
to the United Nations and foreign governments not to recognize the
results of the election also suggest that Mr. Rainsy has yet to
understand that Cambodia's future hinges on whether he or others can
inspire domestic activism. In the past, Hun Sen's greatest strength has
been his control over the country's resources, from the forests to the
civil service, which he allocated to supporters as the spoils of office.
Public revulsion has now turned that control into his greatest
weakness, but Cambodians don't have a clear understanding of the
alternative.

If the opposition can use its time on the streets toeducate the public on the reforms needed to change Cambodia's system,
it could take the helm of the protest movement. Otherwise the CNRP
lawmakers might as well take what the CPP has offered and let the
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