Our first big blast of truly wintry air is here today and it peaks tonight. While the extended weekend is chilly on the whole, the worst of it comes early, and conditions generally improve tomorrow into Monday. There’s still plenty of leaf peeping to be had, especially near the cities and east toward the bay.

Today (Saturday): Cold winds are blowing in the wake of last night’s storm system. We may still be kicking more widespread clouds early, but the day is sunnier than not. The sun won’t be very effective as daytime temperatures struggle to rise much. Temperatures probably range from 40 to 45, although highs are probably close to midnight temperatures last night. Winds peak out of the northwest at about 20 to 25 mph this afternoon, which might mean some gusts to 35 or 40 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Winds die off a good deal going into sunset, but they don’t diminish entirely Friday night. Skies are mostly clear, and lows range from the mid-20s to low 30s. Winds are out of the northwest at about 10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Veterans Day (Sunday): It’s a frozen start to a pretty nice (if chilly) day. Sunshine is the rule and winds are calmer than Saturday. High temperatures are slightly milder than today, mainly reaching for the mid- and upper 40s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Skies remain mostly clear. The air mass is more stale at this point, so lows are slightly elevated compared with tonight. We’re talking mainly upper 20s and low 30s outside the Beltway to about mid-30s or so downtown. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Sunshine should continue into Monday, although clouds may be on the increase late in the day. It’s mild and tranquil, with highs in the near 50 to mid-50s range. Maybe a good day for a long walk? Confidence: Medium

More rain is in the forecast by Tuesday. Some could end up moderate to heavy, which is basically our story these days. With clouds and rain rather plentiful, high temperatures are held back in the mid-40s to about 50. Confidence: Medium

Ian LivingstonIan Livingston is a forecaster/photographer and information lead for the Capital Weather Gang. By day, Ian is a defense and national security researcher at a D.C. think tank. Follow