Jenkins takes one for the team

The secrecy around Labor’s latest power play was so tight that even Labor backbenchers were stunned when Harry Jenkins quit as speaker at around 9am on Thursday.

But it took only a few moments for Julia Gillard to assure her colleagues, in private conversations, that everything was under control – and that a rapid series of changes in parliament would all work to the government’s advantage.

Caucus members were told that the outcome would leave the government in a stronger position to ride out the turbulence in the hung parliament.

On the numbers, that is exactly the way things look. There are 150 seats in the lower house and Labor held only 72 of them on Wednesday, forcing it to rely on the Greens’ Adam Bandt, and independents Rob Oakeshott, Andrew Wilkie and Tony Windsor.

Peter Slipper’s departure from the Coalition to take up the Speaker’s chair gives the Prime Minister much more room to move on contentious votes in the lower house.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott held 72 votes in the lower house on Wednesday, with support from Tony Crook on most issues and, less reliably, Bob Katter as well.

With Slipper in the Speaker’s chair and not casting a vote on most matters, Labor holds 76 votes and the Coalition holds 73.

Slipper could, in theory, use his casting vote to back the government in the event that the vote is tied on the floor of the chamber (the only time such a casting vote is allowed).

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This is valuable insurance for Gillard in the event that troubled Labor backbencher Craig Thomson has to leave parliament.

A bigger incentive for the change is that it reduces Gillard’s dependence on Tasmanian independent Wilkie.

Labor MPs are angry at the way Wilkie has foisted his poker machine reforms on the government and fired up a campaign among clubs against Labor, in some cases endangering election funding for the ALP.

The way is now clear for Gillard to devise a solution to problem gambling without going all the way to deliver Wilkie’s pre-commitment rules, in effect calling the Tasmanian’s bluff on whether he might try to withhold support for the government on the issue.

As well, Gillard now has some insurance next time the Greens try to maximise their leverage with Bandt’s position as the lone Green in the lower house.

Officially, the government says that Jenkins made up his own mind about resigning. Gillard said in Question Time that she held a meeting with Jenkins at 7:30am on Thursday to discuss his decision.

But caucus members know that Jenkins was pushed. After all, he is giving up a prestigious job and a salary bonus of about $105,000 a year.

Jenkins received a hero’s welcome in the caucus room at its 10am meeting to decide on tactics. The caucus knows that he has taken one for the team.

Abbott has been hoping that Gillard would crack and that he could force an early election, bringing the Coalition back to power without having to wait for the election due in September 2013.

That prospect now looks more distant. For this reason alone, there is a clear advantage for Gillard in arranging Slipper’s new job.

There are costs as well, however. All sides of the parliament heaped praise on Jenkins on Thursday for good reason: he was a safe pair of hands to manage the parliament during an highly volatile period.

Can Slipper match his predecessor? The government’s standing depends in part on his success, because the government is damaged whenever concerns arise that the parliament is not working smoothly.

The government leader in the House of Representatives, Anthony Albanese, has good reason for reminding all who will listen that the parliament is passing the bills put to it and working as normal. Albanese and others are highly sensitive to any accusation that the parliament is in disarray.

Gillard did not want the election of Slipper on Thursday to seem like a farce but the Coalition’s tactics gave the event exactly that flavour. Christopher Pyne, a Coalition frontbencher with a talent for comedy, made hay by nominating a series of Labor backbenchers for Speaker, only to hear them all decline.

When Windsor attempted a joke by nominating Pyne to be speaker, it only reinforced the feeling.

Whether Slipper’s election fits with Westminster tradition or not, the government needs to be on guard for a disorderly House of Representatives that cements the view among some voters that a minority Labor government is bad for the nation.

The parliament remains volatile and Gillard will continue to have immense trouble delivering on her agenda.