Tuesday, February 26, 2013

The *!@%$ carbon tax

In 1912,
Alice, Lady Hillingdon, wrote “When I hear my husband’s steps outside my door,
I lie down on my bed, close my eyes, open my legs and think of England.” South
African business appears to be taking the same approach to the
impending carbon tax.

The
arguments for the tax are specious in the extreme. There is a belief that we
have voluntarily committed to reduce our emissions by 34% by 2020. Nothing could be further from the truth. We have made an offer provided, and only
provided, international funds and technology are made available to pay for any reduction. As of today, not one brass
farthing has appeared. Meanwhile we are already paying an extra 3.5c/kWh for coal-derived
electricity. The electricity price is being further inflated by Eskom paying an
average of over R2/kWh for ‘renewable’ energy; its own production costs are
32c/kWh. We can expect further price
increases as even more ‘renewables’ are thrust upon us by this insane pursuit
of the unattainable.

“Insane
pursuit of the unattainable”? Yes, the idea that any reduction we make will affect global carbon dioxide emissions is risible.
Worldwide, they have grown 50% in the last 17 years. The annual growth exceeds our total output.
Any reduction we made would be invisible against the background of surging
fossil fuel use. A 34% reduction would devastate our economy and give nil
benefits – zilch, zero.

Has
rising carbon dioxide had any measurable impact? No! Global temperatures have been flat for
the last 17 years. The evidence for impending disasters is slender in the
extreme. The sea level rise has slowed since we came out of the last Ice Age. It is now only about 3mm per year, almost imperceptible against the background of tides and storms. The Arctic has shrunk to levels last seen in the 1920’s. Glaciers only
400 years old are shrinking again. And for the rest, everything is as variable
as it has always been.

But surely
a carbon tax will change our behaviour?
It is unlikely to reduce our incomes to the point where we starve and
turn cannibal, to be true. But it is
equally unlikely to change any other behaviour.
If you doubt this, think of the tax on gas-guzzlers. Have you seen any fewer Sandton tractors on
the streets of late? The parking spaces at the private schools are being
lengthened to enable the mothers to get in and out.

Has
Government given us any indication of what it intends to do with the billions
it will suck out of our economy? No! It wants to continue to
distribute revenue as it sees fit, which is increasingly being seen as a means of
buying votes.

The time has come to reject any notion of a
carbon tax. It will bring no benefits,
and will damage the economy. Stronger reasons for rejection are difficult to
imagine.

About Me

A happy man who spends most of his time being a technocrat and helping developing nations develop, and then reading and writing and travelling. Some of the time I am indeed a "Nutty Prof" sharing the fun I have had with the students who will inherit this world from me and my generation.