Publication year

Monetary policies in the eurozone and US are on the verge of parting ways. For the world economy as a whole, there is a risk that this monetary divergence will fuel external imbalances among the largest economies.

The introduction of our annual publication ‘Outlook 2016’ is entitled ‘Green in an orange context’. Orange stands for the many risks which surround our economic scenarios. Last weekend’s terrorist attacks in Paris are evidence that one of the risks has reared its ugly head.

While there will be a devaluation of the Chinese renminbi, the dollar will also become stronger more generally in 2016, due in part to the Fed’s interest rate increases. The ECB is more likely to do the opposite, which will weaken the euro/dollar currency pair further still. Slightly higher capital market rates can be expected though.

Global growth holds up in 2016, but does not accelerate. With the US poised to hike interest rates, the rest of the world waits anxiously. Normalization of monetary policy poses economic risks, but so does keeping it too loose for too long.

In an international climate where so many indicators are orange, we should count our blessings for now that the Netherlands is set to be a green oasis both this year and next. Things have looked rather different in recent years.

According to the World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency the oil sector is adjusting to the new reality after the sharp oil price shock of 2014. And that translates to low though increasing oil prices.

We expect the German economy to grow by 1¾% in 2015 and 2% in 2016. However, an escalation of the refugee problem, spread of the emissions scandal at Volkswagen to other car manufacturers and more negative news on the performance of the Chinese economy could affect the solid base of the German economy.

We expect to see the Belgian economy grow by 1¼% in 2015 and 1½% in 2016. In 2015, growth is mainly driven by an increase in private consumption, while net exports will also contribute positively in 2016.

The Italian economy will grow in 2015 for the first time in three years. Yet, growth remains weak, with ¾% in 2015 and 1¼% in 2016. Domestic demand is again making a positive contribution to growth, but high unemployment hampers a stronger recovery.