COVID-19 and Passenger Airline Travel

March 20, 2020
IN11265

The COVID-19 global pandemic presents particular risks and challenges to commercial passenger airline travel. Taking a passenger flight involves numerous interpersonal interactions, transiting through often crowded airport terminals, and sitting in close proximity to others for extended periods, both onboard aircraft and at airport gates. These activities may increase the probability of exposure to infectious disease.

Curtailing infectious disease spread through airline travel is challenging, in part because the passenger airline system in the United States is highly concentrated around 30 large hub airports, with tens of thousands of passengers passing through each of these airports every day. In early March 2019, a year before the COVID-19 outbreak, about 2.25 million passengers passed through screening checkpoints across the United States on a daily basis. Passenger activity for early March 2020 appeared to be only slightly lower, averaging just under 2 million daily passengers. However, as travel restrictions and warnings in response to COVID-19 have been issued, passenger volumes at Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoints decreased to less than 1 million daily passengers by mid-March 2020. This travel reduction has had considerable economic impact, and questions remain as to whether adequate steps are being taken to reduce the potential spread of COVID-19 through passenger airline travel.

International Travel

The federal response to address COVID-19 spread through passenger airline travel has focused on risk-based health screening of inbound international passengers and restrictions placed on certain international arrivals. On January 31, 2020, President Trump suspended travel from China. International travel restrictions have since expanded to include travelers from Iran, the European Schengen area, the United Kingdom, and Ireland. Travelers returning home to the United States from these areas must enter the country through one of 13 designated entry airports for enhanced screening and are instructed to stay at home for 14 days thereafter and monitor their health for COVID-19 symptoms. On March 19, 2020, the U.S. Department of State issued a global health advisory urging U.S. citizens to avoid all international travel, noting that many airlines have canceled international flights in response to COVID-19 creating disruptions that could prevent travelers from returning to the United States for an undetermined time frame.

Aviation Workforce Infections and Absenteeism

In addition to passengers, airports and airlines employ large numbers of individuals who work at and transit through airports and interact with passengers. In theory, these individuals could be infected and spread or become infected by COVID-19 while at airports or aboard aircraft. Moreover, the aviation system itself could be significantly impacted by COVID-19 if high levels of absenteeism in the sector's safety-critical workforce result or if key facilities and infrastructure become temporarily unavailable subsequent to possible COVID-19 contamination. In March 2020, for example, the Federal Aviation Administration closed air traffic control towers for disinfecting after a controller at Las Vegas McCarran International Airport, three technicians at Chicago Midway airport, and a worker at New York Kennedy International Airport reportedly tested positive for COVID-19. While these airports remained open to air traffic, albeit with reduced capacity, several flights were canceled. More widespread disruptions could occur if larger facilities, like en route centers or terminal radar approach control facilities, are affected.

Sudden reductions in passenger demand are causing numerous flight cancellations and could lead to furloughs and layoffs at airlines that collectively employed almost 750,000 people as of January 2020. Virus-related absenteeism among airline employees, particularly pilots, flight attendants, and ground handlers, could complicate airlines' efforts to maintain reduced flight schedules.