Government foresight programs

Governments of many nations have long understood that it is critical to take a structured approach to thinking about the future in order to better build prosperous societies.

Below is a summary of major agencies from a select group of major countries that have an explicit remit for foresight activities. In the next weeks we intend to significantly expand the scope of this analysis to include other nations and a broader view of future-oriented policy initiatives in the countries already covered.

Australia

Australia has used strategic foresight in its public sector many times including its own Commission for the Future (1985-1998). Scenario planning reports have been produced by the Australian Taxation Service, Australian Federal Police, Child Support Agency, CSIRO’s Data61, and other agencies. Many of these agencies have either ended, stopped doing foresight work, or do not share their foresight work publicly. However, strategic foresight has been practiced so pervasively in Australia that a foresight capacity still remains in many of these agencies especially the Department of Transport and Regional Services and the Department of Agriculture and Water Resources.

CSIRO Futures

Description

CSIRO stands for Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. They are an independent scientific research organization within the Australian Federal Government. CSIRO Futures is an arm of the organization that offers services to corporate and government clients. The primary service is Delphi reports, but they also perform scenario planning and other futures/ foresight techniques.

Created

2014

Staff

10

Recent projects

Other Publications

Description

CSIRO stands for Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. They are an independent scientific research organization within the Australian Federal Government. CSIRO Futures is an arm of the organization that offers services to corporate and government clients. The primary service is Delphi reports, but they also perform scenario planning and other futures/ foresight techniques.

Created

2014

Staff

10

Recent projects

Other Publications

Canada

Canada’s foresight activities developed in similar trajectories as in the US and Europe. In the 1960s and 70s, the Canadian government encouraged a future focus which dimmed somewhat in the 80s and 90s. However, as the 90s gave way to the new millenium, strategic foresight was adopted at the federal level and has grown more integral across several of Canada’s government agencies.

Horizons Canada

Description

Policy Horizons Canada, or simply Horizons, seeks to instil strategic foresight at the highest levels of Canadian government. They work within the federal public service of Canada and use strategic foresight to explore public policy implications over the next 10-15 years. The primary audience is public servants needing to understand the ramifications of their decisions on current issues.

Key personnel

Recent projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

Description

Policy Horizons Canada, or simply Horizons, seeks to instil strategic foresight at the highest levels of Canadian government. They work within the federal public service of Canada and use strategic foresight to explore public policy implications over the next 10-15 years. The primary audience is public servants needing to understand the ramifications of their decisions on current issues.

Key personnel

Recent projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

European Union

The roots of futures planning coalesced in Europe during WWI and grew more intensely through the interwar years and through WWII. Futures studies began to blossom everywhere after WWII particularly in Europe. So, futures/ foresight perspectives were utilized very early on in the development of the EU. Through the years, the European Parliament and the European Commission have sought the expertise of foresight practitioners on multiple issues.

Scientific Foresight (STOA) Unit (European Parliament)

Description

The Scientific Foresight Unit (STOA) carries out interdisciplinary research and provides strategic advice in the field of science and technology options assessment and scientific foresight. It undertakes in-depth studies and organises workshops on developments in these fields, under the guidance of the STOA Panel of 25 MEPs. The STOA Panel forms an integral part of the structure of the European Parliament. It was established in 1987 as Science and Technology Options Assessment (STOA), and in 2014, it was renamed Scientific Foresight (STOA) Unit with an explicit foresight role in science and technology.

Recent projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

Description

The Scientific Foresight Unit (STOA) carries out interdisciplinary research and provides strategic advice in the field of science and technology options assessment and scientific foresight. It undertakes in-depth studies and organises workshops on developments in these fields, under the guidance of the STOA Panel of 25 MEPs. The STOA Panel forms an integral part of the structure of the European Parliament. It was established in 1987 as Science and Technology Options Assessment (STOA), and in 2014, it was renamed Scientific Foresight (STOA) Unit with an explicit foresight role in science and technology.

Recent projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)

Description

The ESPAS is a unique inter-institutional project aimed at strengthening the EU’s efforts in the crucial area of forward planning. ESPAS brings together the European Parliament, the European Commission, the Secretariat General of the Council of the European Union and the European External Action Service to strengthen the Union’s collective administrative capacity to identify and analyse the key trends and challenges, and the resulting policy choices, which are likely to confront Europe and the wider world in the decades ahead.

Created

2010

Staff

ESPAS is coodinated by a steering group, encompassing senior officials from the participating EU institutions or bodies, chaired by the Head of the European Political Strategy Centre (EPSC) in the European Commission. The secretariat of the network is provided by the European Parliament and the ESPAS project team implements the guidelines decided by the steering group.

Methodologies

Other Publications

Description

The ESPAS is a unique inter-institutional project aimed at strengthening the EU’s efforts in the crucial area of forward planning. ESPAS brings together the European Parliament, the European Commission, the Secretariat General of the Council of the European Union and the European External Action Service to strengthen the Union’s collective administrative capacity to identify and analyse the key trends and challenges, and the resulting policy choices, which are likely to confront Europe and the wider world in the decades ahead.

Created

2010

Staff

ESPAS is coodinated by a steering group, encompassing senior officials from the participating EU institutions or bodies, chaired by the Head of the European Political Strategy Centre (EPSC) in the European Commission. The secretariat of the network is provided by the European Parliament and the ESPAS project team implements the guidelines decided by the steering group.

Methodologies

Other Publications

Finland

The Prime Minister’s Office coordinates several foresight pubic sector activities in Finland including the Government Report on the Future. The report is published once per electoral term and presents key issues for the nation in the next 10-20 years.

Government Foresight Group

Description

Launched in 2015, the group is tasked with coordinating foresight activities and merging them together with decision-making. The group is made up of experts within the Prime Minister’s Offcice, other public sector agencies, think tanks, research organizations, and universities.

Created

2015

Staff

11

Key personnel

Recent projects

Description

Launched in 2015, the group is tasked with coordinating foresight activities and merging them together with decision-making. The group is made up of experts within the Prime Minister’s Offcice, other public sector agencies, think tanks, research organizations, and universities.

Created

2015

Staff

11

Key personnel

Recent projects

Sitra

Description

Sitra is not an agency but an innovation fund worth 30 million euros a year. Although the fund is now independent, the organization answers directly to the Finnish Parliament. Having begun in the 1960s, the organization took a particular focus on futurology in 1977. Currently, they employ several “foresight specialists” in a Foresight and Insight Team.

Created

1966

Staff

200

Key personnel

Recent projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

Description

Sitra is not an agency but an innovation fund worth 30 million euros a year. Although the fund is now independent, the organization answers directly to the Finnish Parliament. Having begun in the 1960s, the organization took a particular focus on futurology in 1977. Currently, they employ several “foresight specialists” in a Foresight and Insight Team.

Created

Staff

Key personnel

Recent projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

Parliament’s Committee on the Future

Description

The committee was created in 1993 as a temporary committee to coordinate Parliament’s answer to the Prime Minister Office’s Government Report on the Future. The committee became permanent in 2000 and atracted more responsibility, albeit less than any other committee in the Finnish Parliament. It acts as a think tank for Parliament on future, technology, and society.

Created

1993

Staff

17

Key personnel

Recent projects

Methodologies

Description

The committee was created in 1993 as a temporary committee to coordinate Parliament’s answer to the Prime Minister Office’s Government Report on the Future. The committee became permanent in 2000 and atracted more responsibility, albeit less than any other committee in the Finnish Parliament. It acts as a think tank for Parliament on future, technology, and society.

Created

1993

Staff

17

Key personnel

Recent projects

Methodologies

France

In the 1950s and 60s, Bertrand de Jouvenel, founder of Futuribles journal and association, helped develop futures/ foresight into a field of study with government applications. In French the term “prospective” was used to describe this budding field, and it carries a different connotation than futurology (which was common in English speaking countries at the time), futures, or foresight. Largely because of the efforts of Futuribles, prospective is becoming increasingly accepted as a strategic method in the French government.

Description

Under the Minister of Territorial Cohesion, the purpose for CGET is to reduce inequalities within the territories of France. They are organized into three main areas. Foresight is the first department under the strategic directive. They produce foresight (prospective) reports about the future of France’s territories to help them improve decision making.

Created

2009

Staff

30

Key personnel

Recent projects

Other Publications

Description

Under the Minister of Territorial Cohesion, the purpose for CGET is to reduce inequalities within the territories of France. They are organized into three main areas. Foresight is the first department under the strategic directive. They produce foresight (prospective) reports about the future of France’s territories to help them improve decision making.

Recent projects

Other Publications

Description

Under the Parliamentary Office for the Evaluation of Scientific and Technological Options, the Senate Delegation of Foresight explores different future scenarios based on social, technological, and economic data. The mission is to aid the senate in decision making especially with regards to technological advancement.

Created

2009

Staff

36

Recent projects

Other Publications

Description

Under the Parliamentary Office for the Evaluation of Scientific and Technological Options, the Senate Delegation of Foresight explores different future scenarios based on social, technological, and economic data. The mission is to aid the senate in decision making especially with regards to technological advancement.

Created

2009

Staff

36

Recent projects

Other Publications

Japan

Since the 1970s, Japan has adopted technology foresight techniques such as Delphi surveys to advance their Research & Development industry. Delphi surveys were produced every five years. The resulting innovation policies served the country well to advance the nation’s technoloy capabilities and economic growth.

National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP)

Description

NISTEP was launched under the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). It acts as researchers and advisers across the Japanese government. Launched in 1988, they took over administering the Delphi surveys in 1992.

Created

1988

Staff

45

Recent Projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

Description

NISTEP was launched under the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). It acts as researchers and advisers across the Japanese government. Launched in 1988, they took over administering the Delphi surveys in 1992.

Created

1988

Staff

45

Recent Projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

Singapore

Singapore’s Ministry of Defence in the late 1980s first began the government’s focus on future planning. In 1995, The Prime Minister’s office set up the Scenario Planning Office which was renamed Strategic Policy Office (SPO) in 2003. Since then, strategic foresight has spread throughout the Singapore government. Staff of each of these disparate futures groups meet at the periodic meetings. Strategic Futures Network (SFN) is a quarterly meeting for Deputy-level officers across the Singapore government to discuss trends and implications for Singapore. Sandbox meetings are scheduled for staff-level officers to interact and potentially collaborate on futures work across the Singapore government.

Centre for Strategic Futures

Description

The Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) was established as a futures think tank within Strategic Planning Office to focus on issues that may be blind-spot areas, pursue open-ended long-term futures research, and experiment with new foresight methodologies. On 1 July 2015, CSF became part of the new Strategy Group in the Prime Minister’s Office, which was set up to focus on whole-of-government strategic planning and prioritisation, whole-of-government coordination and development and to incubate and catalyse new capabilities in the Singapore Public Service.” A primary role of CSF is educating groups of Singapore government stakeholders on their futures methods, approaches, and insights. They do so through various speaking events, a series of workshops called Futurecraft, and their biennial event called Foresight Conference. CSF also facilitates the Strategic Futures Network and Sandbox meetings.

Key personnel

Recent projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

Description

The Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) was established as a futures think tank within Strategic Planning Office to focus on issues that may be blind-spot areas, pursue open-ended long-term futures research, and experiment with new foresight methodologies. On 1 July 2015, CSF became part of the new Strategy Group in the Prime Minister’s Office, which was set up to focus on whole-of-government strategic planning and prioritisation, whole-of-government coordination and development and to incubate and catalyse new capabilities in the Singapore Public Service.” A primary role of CSF is educating groups of Singapore government stakeholders on their futures methods, approaches, and insights. They do so through various speaking events, a series of workshops called Futurecraft, and their biennial event called Foresight Conference. CSF also facilitates the Strategic Futures Network and Sandbox meetings.

Key personnel

Recent projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS)

Description

The Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) is a program of the National Security Coordination Secretariat (NSCS). The RAHS program explores methods and tools that complement scenario planning in anticipating strategic issues with significant possible impact on Singapore.

Methodologies

Other Publications

Description

The Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) is a program of the National Security Coordination Secretariat (NSCS). The RAHS program explores methods and tools that complement scenario planning in anticipating strategic issues with significant possible impact on Singapore.

Methodologies

Other Publications

South Korea

South Korea began using the Delphi method in the public sector at least as early as the 1990s to help them ramp up their research and development. However, South Korea soon became good at socially contextualizing their research. Strategic foresight is now an important aspect of many of their government affiliated entities.

Description

Foresight and future strategy are key functions of KISTEP with an Office of Strategic Foresight. Some of the organization dates back before 1987 as the science and technology arm of the Korean government.

Created

1999

Staff

40

Other Publications

Description

Foresight and future strategy are key functions of KISTEP with an Office of Strategic Foresight. Some of the organization dates back before 1987 as the science and technology arm of the Korean government.

Created

Staff

Other Publications

United Arab Emirates

The UAE is a forward looking nation with entrepreneurial tendencies even in the public sector. Their government has sought to expand their view of the future for several years.

Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future

Description

The Ministry carries out its functions through the General Secretariat of the Cabinet and the Prime Minister’s office and The Public Diplomacy Office under the Ministry’s umbrella. The Ministry follows up on the resolutions and directives of the Prime Minister in addition to monitoring implementation of government vision and national agenda, and government performance, as well as improving the efficacy and efficiency of the federal government sector, and raising the quality of government services. Furthermore, the Ministry spearheads innovation and excellence efforts at the Federal Government. It also develops the government communication systems, sets the frameworks and policies of Federal entities and forwards the appropriate recommendations thereof to the Prime Minister and the Cabinet.

Recent projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

Description

The Ministry carries out its functions through the General Secretariat of the Cabinet and the Prime Minister’s office and The Public Diplomacy Office under the Ministry’s umbrella. The Ministry follows up on the resolutions and directives of the Prime Minister in addition to monitoring implementation of government vision and national agenda, and government performance, as well as improving the efficacy and efficiency of the federal government sector, and raising the quality of government services. Furthermore, the Ministry spearheads innovation and excellence efforts at the Federal Government. It also develops the government communication systems, sets the frameworks and policies of Federal entities and forwards the appropriate recommendations thereof to the Prime Minister and the Cabinet.

Recent projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

Dubai Future Foundation

Description

A wholly-owned government corporation, the Dubai Future Foundation was created by His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai. The Foundation is charged with not just envisioning the future and planning strategy but on implementing and executing the strategies in the present.

Recent projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

Description

A wholly-owned government corporation, the Dubai Future Foundation was created by His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai. The Foundation is charged with not just envisioning the future and planning strategy but on implementing and executing the strategies in the present.

Recent projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

United Kingdom

The UK has a long history in the discipline of foresight, often called futurology in Britain. H. G. Wells was one of the first to call for a science of the future. However, the development of the discipline within the UK and its government were slower and often less smooth than other parts of Europe and the US. The UK still had one of the major academic journals on foresight, Futures. With the launch of the Office of Science and Technology (OST), technology foresight was introduced at the Cabinet level especially through its Foresight Programme. The OST eventually morphed into the Government Office of Science.

Government Office for Science (GO-Science)

Description

GO-Science gives scientific advice to the Prime Minister and members of the Cabinet, through a programme of projects that reflect the priorities of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser. The Government Office for Science (Go-Science) Foresight programme provides robust evidence to policy-makers to help produce policies that are more resilient to the future.

Created

1993

Staff

80+

Key personnel

Dr. Simon Whitfield – Deputy Director of the Public Services Innovation and is therefore the head of Foresight and Horizon Scanning

Recent projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

Description

GO-Science gives scientific advice to the Prime Minister and members of the Cabinet, through a programme of projects that reflect the priorities of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser. The Government Office for Science (Go-Science) Foresight programme provides robust evidence to policy-makers to help produce policies that are more resilient to the future.

Created

1993

Staff

80+

Key personnel

Dr. Simon Whitfield – Deputy Director of the Public Services Innovation and is therefore the head of Foresight and Horizon Scanning

Recent projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

Cabinet Office—Horizon Scanning Programme Team

Description

The Cabinet Office supports the Prime Minister to ensure the effective running of government. They are also the corporate headquarters for government, in partnership with HM Treasury, and they take the lead in certain critical policy areas. Among their responsibilities, they partnered with GO-Science in 2014 to form the Horizon Scanning Programme Team.

Created

1916

Staff

NA

Key personnel

The Horizon Scanning Programme Team is steered by the Cabinet Secretary’s Advisory Group, but whether Sir Jeremy Heywood is still leading the team is uncertain

Methodologies

Other Publications

Description

The Cabinet Office supports the Prime Minister to ensure the effective running of government. They are also the corporate headquarters for government, in partnership with HM Treasury, and they take the lead in certain critical policy areas. Among their responsibilities, they partnered with GO-Science in 2014 to form the Horizon Scanning Programme Team.

Created

1916

Staff

NA

Key personnel

The Horizon Scanning Programme Team is steered by the Cabinet Secretary’s Advisory Group, but whether Sir Jeremy Heywood is still leading the team is uncertain

Methodologies

Other Publications

United States of America

Although the US has been one of the leaders in Futures Studies and Foresight in academia and industry, the US government as a whole has never fully embraced the discipline. However, several US government agencies have performed studies and used outsourced studies on the future. Several attempts have been made at the legislative and executive branch levels to encourage futures thinking across departments.

Federal Foresight Community of Interest (FFCOI)

Description

Although not a government agency of any sort. The Community of Interest is a cross-agency support network for develop of foresight ideas, strategies, and methods among Members working to improve the use of Strategic Foresight in the US government. U.S. federal agencies represented at the joint meeting included Department of Interior, Department of Energy (Sandia National Laboratory), Department of Commerce/National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency, Department of Health and Human Services, Patent and Trademark Office, U.S. Navy, Department of Veterans Affairs, Government Accountability Office, Library of Congress, Environmental Protection Agency, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Personnel Management, Federal Aviation Administration, Bureau of Prisons, Coast Guard, and others.

Description

Although not a government agency of any sort. The Community of Interest is a cross-agency support network for develop of foresight ideas, strategies, and methods among Members working to improve the use of Strategic Foresight in the US government. U.S. federal agencies represented at the joint meeting included Department of Interior, Department of Energy (Sandia National Laboratory), Department of Commerce/National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency, Department of Health and Human Services, Patent and Trademark Office, U.S. Navy, Department of Veterans Affairs, Government Accountability Office, Library of Congress, Environmental Protection Agency, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Personnel Management, Federal Aviation Administration, Bureau of Prisons, Coast Guard, and others.

U.S. Government Accountability Office (USGAO)

Description

GAO provides oversight of federal spending, insight into best practices, and foresight to identify and explore emerging issues that represent important opportunities or risks to the United States. GAO will work to inform congressional oversight with foresight analysis, which can help inform policymaking through illuminating the trade-offs and implications of change. GAO started using futures thinking during the 70s, and it intesified around 2006.

Methodologies

Other Publications

Description

GAO provides oversight of federal spending, insight into best practices, and foresight to identify and explore emerging issues that represent important opportunities or risks to the United States. GAO will work to inform congressional oversight with foresight analysis, which can help inform policymaking through illuminating the trade-offs and implications of change. GAO started using futures thinking during the 70s, and it intesified around 2006.

Methodologies

Other Publications

U.S. Coast Guard Evergreen

Description

Evergreen is a program of the strategic analysis team within the U.S. Coast Guard. Evergreen’s value is identifying Strategic Needs or Key Success Factors (KSF) common to multiple plausible future scenarios, allowing the Coast Guard to better position itself for success no matter what the future may hold.

Created

1998

Staff

7+

Key personnel

Recent projects

Methodologies

Other Publications

Description

Evergreen is a program of the strategic analysis team within the U.S. Coast Guard. Evergreen’s value is identifying Strategic Needs or Key Success Factors (KSF) common to multiple plausible future scenarios, allowing the Coast Guard to better position itself for success no matter what the future may hold.