12/02/2011

2011 - Best Actress II.

Huge BO + great notices for her BUT not everybody buys her as the lead and that could be a problem.

Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)

Third Oscars rarely happen for meidocre films...but then again, she IS Meryl Streep!

Glenn Close(Albert Nobbs)

The overdue status should help her a lot, she could pull a 'Jeff Bridges' this year. The question is : could an understated, quiet lead performance get more votes than Marilyn Monroe, Margaret Thatcher and THE most likeable character of the race ?

Tilda Swinton(We need to talk about Kevin)

Even though I consider this her best performance to date, I am not that sure that she will make it...unfortunately the Academy tends to ignore her.

Charlize Theron (Young Adult)

Unlikeable FEMALE lead of a contemporary comedy ? Well...it will be definitely tough road.

Elizabeth Olsen(Martha Marcy May Marlene)

She REALLY needs the critics groups to stay in the race.

Kirsten Dunst(Melancholia)

Ditto.

Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method)

Ditto.

Rooney Mara(The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)

The Rapace-factor doesn't help + could she be already too late in the game ?

STRONG CONTENDERS

Felicity Jones(Like Crazy)

Elizabeth Olsen seems to be her big competition.

Adepero Oduye (Pariah)

IF critics groups create a sweep for her, then MAYBE.

Saoirse Ronan(Hanna)

Ditto.

Mia Wasikowska (Jane Eyre)

Ditto...although it IS a critically acclaimed, iconic turn in a critically acclaimed Academy-friendly film.

Olivia Colman(Tyrannosaur)

Critics loved her performance but unfortunately she doesn't seem to have enough momentum.

DARK HORSES

Ellen Barkin(Another Happy day)

Ditto.

Kristin Scott Thomas(Sarah's Key)

Ditto.

Emma Stone(The Help)

Even though she is a rising star and she had an excellent year, internal competition is just too tough. IF Viola Davis had been considered supporting from Day 1, Stone might have had a shot at this, but with Davis in the lead race, Stone doesn't stand a chance.

Kristen Wiig(Bridesmaids)

Female lead of a broad comedy...hmm...unfortunately it could be a critically acclaimed, huge BO-hit, it just won't happen for the lead...maybe for the scenestealing supporting player ?

Juliette Binoche(Certified Copy)

If only...

Rachel Weisz(The Whistleblower)

Way too small film and way too early release date.

Maria Bello(Beautiful Boy)

Ditto.

Helen Mirren(The Debt)

It was a solid hit, one that critics liked...and that's about it. Mirren was great as always, but her turn won't be considered Oscar-worthy when all is said and done.

Michelle Yeoh(The Lady)

Word is, she gives a great performance in a bad film...not exactly a viable combination.

Jennifer Garner (Butter)

There was some momentum after Toronto, but now it seems to be forgotten. Harvey is clearly busy with his other – stronger – contenders, but if my memory serves me well, this was promised an Oscar-qualifying week this year...is that still happening ?

4 comments:

You are probably right, there are already 4 near-locks (although Close seems to be shaky at the moment...and that's not good news, considering I want her to win) and I do agree, the fifth slot is down to Swinton, Theron, Olsen and Mara, but I have no clue, who will actually get it : the Academy tends to ignore Swinton, Theron plays an unlikeable lead in a comedy, Olsen is relatively unknown and up against some big names for the crucial 5th slot and Mara is in a genre film, something the Academy rarely embraces. At this point, I might say it will come down to the one whose film gets a picture or at least a script nod...and seeing the early US-reviews, that might cancel Swinton's - IMO - career-best performance AND Olsen who is her film's best shot at an Oscar nomination...so, could the 5th slot come down to Theron and Mara ?

Knightley and Dunst gave critically acclaimed performances in critically acclaimed films with Academy-friendly release dates, but the buzz just simply doesn't seem to be there.

You bring up an excellent point about the screenplay nod. I don't see many of these films appearing in any of those ten slots. But, the ones that do will surely carry their actress with them. (or in Streep's case, perhaps, vice-verse). But, yeah, if Diablo (Brook) Cody gets a nod, Theron is surely in. If the Dragon screenplay makes it, that will do wonders for Mara. Perhaps, though, that formula won't work for Close. I can see her getting nominated for writing and then getting left out for acting (or vice-verse), but surely not both.

After seeing 'We need to talk about Kevin' a few weeks ago, I REALLY wanted Swinton IN, but there doesn't seem to be enough buzz there, so if that's the case, it definitely helps Mara and Theron...for me the big question is that though on paper the fifth slot is probably down to these two, could the newcomer Olsen have a shot against an Academy Award winning movie star and an iconic character in a potential bp frontrunner ? Could she knock them out ? She needs the critics groups for that to happen, but - though we are still early in the game - they have ignored her so far. For now, my hunch is Theron for the fifth...Academy Awards winner playing against type in critically acclaimed comedy by Academy-fave director ? That seems to be the best combination...for now.