Tuesday, September 30, 2008

I am very tired. I am also fairly happy because I am up 3.56% for the day. I bought into INTC, COH, and SOL (more INTC, about double) before I left for school. And what do you know? Shit didn't rain from the sky--not today at least. More like Paulson asked the referee for a redo. In any case, the NYSE Bullish Percentage Index ($BPNYA at stockcharts) has dropped below 30. I'd look for a three box reversal on a point and figure chart for a strong bullish signal. The number of stocks above their 50 and 150 day SMAs is starting to rebound. And while most of that points towards a higher market, Congress has the ability to make the tickers bleed red again. Albeit, it's likely they will develop a palatable plan as they have plenty of (unhappy) constituents with 401k accounts.

Currently, futures are down. After such a rally, that can be expected.

Monday, September 29, 2008

The above charts are beginning to show the development of a bullish setup. Along with main indexes, the VIX set a new record today and looks as though it may continue higher. The BPNYA is also edging towards bearish territory at 30.06. It would be nice to see the BPNYA hit the same levels it did in January. A three box reversal after a close below 30 has historically led to a bullish move. Both of the NYA50 (a short term indicator) and the NYA150 (a midterm indicator) are near previous lows. A unified reversal following a significant VIX value should signal a bullish rally in this bear market. As always, wait for the reversals--this time the knives are especially sharp.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Not to mention, the largest bank failure in history. And, no, it couldn't wait another day. [The chairwoman of the FDIC] said that the bank’s rapidly deteriorating condition prompted regulators to seize it Thursday, and not on a Friday as is typical for bank closures. Of course, there may be some ulterior motive. A failure of such magnitude might galvanize congress into passing a bailout bill despite citizen protest. While McCain is posing for photo ops and bailing out on Letterman (punny!), the Republicans in the House, led by McCain, are stalling by suggesting a different plan. Albeit, the plan the Democrats are discussing is supported not only by Paulson and Bernanke but by Bush himself. Senator Dodd commented on the newly suggested bill saying, "Instead of being a rescue plan for our economy it was a rescue plan for John McCain." McCain's alternative would allow Wall Street companies [to] purchase insurance on mortgage-backed securities. It also [would advocate] tax cuts and relaxed regulations. We all know that taxes and regulations got us into this mess; maybe we should listen to McCain. Then again, McCain has said that he does not understand the economy very well. And undecided voters are beginning to agree with him.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

I have been signing into my unfunded Zecco account recently. I submitted another option application on Monday and figure maybe someone forgot to tell me they updated my access level. That hasn't happened. But, I did stumble upon something that must be nice for those with accounts above $25k: commission-free trades during the month of October for stocks and options. That could add up, at least for the options trades.

Then again, with sogo, trades cost 1.50 on the premium plan. If you are trading 25k, you probably wouldn't notice that...

PS: I broke even today (well, up ~$4). I'm somewhat frustrated about it because there were times when all four of my stocks were up enough to make me want to sell them. But, alas, nanny-state day trading rules. I'm going to have to hit up my grandparents for some cash. They'll understand...

I don't think so. I haven't been sitting around the information tube all day, so I may be a little biased. I have been outside and things don't look that bad. Then again, I'm not an ex-hedge fund owner or one of the wealthiest men in America. Oh, and I have no affiliations with Goldman Sachs. So, like I said: I could be biased.

Why couldn't we just give him $50 billion a month? You know why? He doesn't want to be judged on performance. - Phil Grande

Have a good day. If things don't go so well, I'll see you down in Arizona Bay.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Well, FCX and UNG stopped me out and I lost all but ~$3. I wish I had some shorts on today, but that's past. I'm interested in picking up some tech (INTC < 19, MU < 4.30, AAPL < 130, CY < 26), some solar (FSLR < 215, CSIQ < 24, SOL < 13.50) and I want to look at some banking stocks (FNM, FRE, AIG, hmmmm).

Future contracts are showing some rebound for tomorrow. Hoping for an up day; although, I would like the market to open lower.

Monday, September 22, 2008

I'm already up to ~1% and fairly happy about it. I just wanted to post a little bit of the reasoning behind the purchases. Besides the fact that all three of them are oversold on the weekly stochastic, there are several other reasons that one may hope for gains in the upcoming week. Most importantly: the 700billion dollar bailout plan. It is likely to influence the value of the dollar in the negative direction. ABX follows gold and GDX follows the gold miners. If the dollar deflates then the ABX and GDX stocks should rise; at least, that's what I'm hoping for.

Update: An overall 2.48% gain on today's investment. Hoping for gold and oil to rise again tomorrow.

Got out of everything this morning. Biggest gain was in GS at 3.75%. I had some losses as well. Overall, a slight gain. I'm thinking about buying NOV, FCX, NEM, ABX, GDX, POT. But am still thinking it over and looking for other deals. On a side note, I should have listened to the CBOE and those discussing Pakistan to understand the problems with the short sale ban.

Good trading. Good luck.

Update: Bought equal parts GDX and ABX. Got a small portion of NOV. I need to do some homework and get ready for school.

I plan on selling into the open if there is a gap up. I'll buy back some of the positions before I take off for school. I also want to short certain stocks should there be a gap up. PCH @ 51+; RIMM @ 110+; HPQ @ 48/49+. At least, those are the few I have my sights on right now.

Good trading! Take care!

The above is not advice. It is merely a log of my plans, ideas, and executions. Make your own mistakes; do your own homework; take responsibility.

Does anyone think that Paulson will aim to please his friends at Goldman Sachs? wrap up the securities with a sweet rebate and sell them to those closest to him? Before you answer, remember that he is asking for protection from oversight and judicial prosecution.

PS: Pink Floyd's Animals is based in part on Animal Farm by George Orwell. Animal Farm is a brilliant allegory of Russia during the times of Lenin and Stalin. My favorite part, though, is how well it applies to United State's society: there will always be someone claiming what benefits him benefits you; that we are all equal, with the fine print reading: but some are more equal than others. And, there will always be someone who will try to take control through elocution, double-talk, and revisionism. Not to be too cynical or anything; I just enjoy sociology, psychology, government, etc, and these social manipulations are an indelible part of human life.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Those in high places are working on a bill to help relieve the struggling financial sector. Barak Obama said that he ``fully supports'' Paulson and Bernanke's efforts to stabilize the financial system. The plan, however, should benefit both main street and Wall Street. McCain also gave his approval and ``looks forward'' to reviewing the proposal while focusing at least in part on ``minimizing the burden on the taxpayer." While Bush gave his full approval to the Treasury's plan, his message differed slightly from Obama and McCain's: Bush today said he's unconcerned that the price tag on the package may seem high. Perhaps, one of the few Americans unconcerned. The proposal, when passed, would likely raise the nation's debt ceiling to $11.315 trillion from $10.615 trillion, obviously increasing the burden on the nation's already large deficit. The House will pass legislation to implement the plan by the end of next week, and the Senate will act soon after.

All the income and account size rules are frustrating. Trade King will not allow me to open an options account with the ability to buy puts and calls. And with Sogo Trade, I have to wait a day before I can trade or else I risk getting my account frozen. AHHHH! Lame.

Well, I sold NOV and FCX this morning for a 11% and 6% profit. That doesn't come all that close to making up for my mistake yesterday (how could I lose faith in Paulson?), but it's a start. I bought some AAPL (140.68), C (19.78), GS (128.52), JPM (45.26), and LM (40.82). C is already up 6% while the rest have been up, but currently hold negligible gains or losses.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Some of my stops kicked in. I'm completely out of XLF (thank god). I will never do something as stupid as I did over the last several weeks. Poor risk management. Anyway, I bought some NOV and some FCX. Put in some more stops for the halves of positions I still have left.

"Due to the new SEC rules, all "short" orders must be entered manually by a Trade Desk representative. Please call 888-818-7646 and we will be happy to assist with short sell orders."

Very strange. I'm putting in some stops so that I don't worry all day--just for half my positions. Intel broke below yesterday's lows, which should have been expected, given the black candle engulfing pattern.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

No naked short selling goes into place tomorrow morning at 1 minute after the stroke of midnight. I may hold on for another beautiful day or so. And, to have not noticed that Intel closed today at yesterday's low--THE PERFECT TWEEZERS SETUP! Well, candlesticking doesn't always work out for me. But it's about time we get these nasty, evil, despicable, short sellers into jail! Forget about anyone else who may have destroyed the fundamentals of these companies. Damn short sellers. Pointing out that the emperor is actually in the nude.

Update:

I wanted to get this P&F chart up because it is terribly important. After going below 30% the market has a very, very good chance of rallying upon a three box reversal.

Oh, you laugh. HAHAHA. The workers are just in a mental recession--that's it! Thank god. I thought that gas prices had spiked, that inflation has been on the rise, that housing prices have been dropping, that the market has fallen into bear territory, that food/medicine/school costs more. I'm just dreaming things up. BSC/FNM/FRE/AIG/MER/LEH never happened! It's all a figment of our imagination. The only reason we hear that things are bad is because politicians want to make it seem like they care. Oh. It's obvious that the media has been lagging on the good news. MISERY SELLS NEWS! Let's keep pumping it out. I'm glad no one has been calling bottoms. No one has been focusing on the silver lining. Everyone thinks the market is just going to enter a black hole. I'm glad the media didn't pursue that perception back in June...

We whine about competition. Shit, WE HAVE A FREE MARKET! No? Forget all the banking bailouts, and any other bailouts in the past. Forget the goodies that WalMart gets. WE ARE AMERICA. THAT MEANS WE ARE CAPITALISM (ie COMPETITION). George Bush's and John Kerry's grade were amazing in school! Yale couldn't offer this country any two who were better. We're just whining about the competition. Suck it up. There are no legacy students with inflated grades. And it definitely does not matter that women were not part of the grade pool at the time of Bush and Kerry's attendance. No, doesn't matter. Wouldn't have changed a thing...

Whine, whine, whine. It's all in your head you stupid Americans!

Oh well. I think I'm going to sell half of all my positions tomorrow. I want to cut down on my risk a little--which will probably mean that the markets will rally very sweetly.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Updates: I sold my stake in RIMM for a fairly large loss this morning; however, my losses in the other companies are slowly dwindling. And I think it will continue. It looks like something juicy and anathema to free market theorists and small government idealists will jump start this market.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Today was the 14th worst drop since 1950. Because my portfolio is, after the cover of PCH, completely biased towards the long side, its performance got hurt badly today. I am back to a ~7% loss. Definitely a good lesson to take seriously. I am going to go through some of my stocks and decide on some exit points and possible outcomes along with a general market overview.

INTC fell below its July lows, its March lows and is headed towards its January lows, which at 18.05, happen to be the 52-week low. If it closes below its January lows I'll sell the following day given the market looks terrible. It hit 13 or so in 2002 and I would rather not be holding the stock should that occur again. I don't want to have my hands tied for more than a month; then again, Intel does have a solid record of holding within a relatively nice range. The volume has been increasing, I'd like to see it turn around when it hits the 18 range.

RIMM is looking terrible. But that was expected given the historical nature of the day. It broke last week's low by 10 cents or so, but closed lower. The volume was lower than some of the days last week, but it was still up over 20million. I will sell if it continues to fall. I wanted to hold out until just before earnings next week, but now, I'm worried about holding for longer than reasonable. I will wait until tomorrow's close to sell for a loss.

ADSK is holding up relatively well. I would like to see some more volume come in, but this stock is the least of my troubles right now. I would still like to sell this for a 10% gain at some time in the future.

XLF is doing poorly as one would assume. Purchasing this is a good lesson: do not purchase an ETF following the stocks that have been at the center of a bear market, unless you do so at a decent discount. $22 was not a discount.

EGLE did not have an overwhelming surge in volume today. I'm keeping it. There were worse lows last week. I'm not scared yet.

As for the market overview, this post at VIX and More does a good job of showing the misleading belief that a high VIX always correlates with a new low. The VIX is above the July high; however, with the huge sell offs at the very end of the trading session, I doubt this is as low as we go. Perhaps Paulson can pull some strings and get the market to rally. Otherwise, the plunge protection team has its work cut out for it.

Here is the NYSE bullish percentage index. We still want to see this go below 30 at some point. A rebound above 30 signals a good time to purchase stocks.

The percentage of stocks above their 50 day moving average is a good short term indicator of market movement. Looks like we have a way to go before we hit July's lows. Definitely a sign of more bearishness in the days ahead. The 150 day variation is nearing its July lows. It's still a distance from the March and January lows, and it is quite possible that we will return to those locations given the severity of the financial crisis. A better understanding of the implications behind this indicator will be gained tomorrow, albeit, things still look rather bearish, unless the inverted hammer that has formed on the SPY chart were to be heeded. That points towards at least a small reversal. I think it is safe to say we won't see another drop like today's tomorrow. But, I am not going to say it (for fear God will smite me).

In any case, good luck, good trading, good riddance if you listen to me. Adios.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

I have been doing some non-post updates--adding more blog links, gathering links to more of my favorite technical indicators, and fixing a few formating errors in past posts. I was pretty tired out this weekend, but I got to thinking about the LEH/WM/Etc debacle; and, I wanted to see how well a strangle or a straddle on LEH and WM would do (assuming the options were purchased at the close on Friday). Once I begin to do decently in stocks, I would like to begin some option trading. This will be one of my first experiments. Anyway:

Friday, September 12, 2008

Even though I'm down about 3% for this week and last Friday, I'm pleased. At one point I was down 7%+ and I managed to quell my fear and trust the charts. Besides buying EGLE, XLF, and even RIMM at slightly inflated prices, the only thing I really regret is not covering PCH for a 5% gain. I could have transfered the money over to something else: mu, nem, abx, smh. And all because I wanted to wait for just a little more. If I had noticed it was running into the 10 or 20 day MA sooner I would've covered, gotten out, and taken up another position and opportunity. Lost opportunity is often lost money.

Next week I plan on selling RIMM. And while I have said that several times this week I really need to get it out of my portfolio before it releases earnings. The CEO is confident, but I'm worried about the shareholders. Until then, I do expect a rally. Perhaps a 5-10% gain for me.

I'd also like to get rid of PCH on Monday or Tuesday at 3% or above. Shouldn't be tough to get that. I'll then be able to put the money into another stock with greater potential, probably to the upside.

All the other stocks will have to wait for further gains. I'm exceptionally pleased with EGLE's rebound. It's had some above average volume these last days which point towards a trend reversal. I'm hoping for a 5-10% return on it in time. As for ADSK, XLF and INTC, they are looking okay. I haven't changed my plan for them.

Good trading. Good luck. And take responsibility (i.e. This is not investment advice).

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Things are looking better overall. I kept RIMM and am hoping that the daily slow stochastic rises a bit more before I sell--seems like a lot of hype is building, so holding a little longer doesn't seem terribly risky. EGLE is continuing up, which is relieving. The others are coming along too. I wish I covered my PCH position and reinvested the money into another stock; but, the opportunity is past. Perhaps tomorrow.

RTH looks like it may be somewhat overextended. Stoch is overbought and the stock seems to be far above support. I'm curious as to why retail would be doing so well in this environment. Looks like a good shorting opportunity to me.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Things aren't looking as bad as they were. EGLE and RIMM both rose today. PCH hit 45/46 today. I'll put in a stop cover for $45 should it get there while I'm in class tomorrow. I probably would have covered today if I had been at the computer. INTC, ADSK, and XLF are down. I'm keeping INTC and ADSK. If INTC drops more and I have some spare capital, I'll probably buy some more (also looking at nem, nvda, mu). I'll hold ADSK for a while as well. Financials are not doing well. But I'll stick by xlf. If this market rallies again the financials will rise. I'll sell in the green.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

It's in its beginning state (and I haven't followed my plans so far...), I am getting some of it down in writing. It feels like tomorrow will be ridiculously volatile. Hopefully we get some upward movement on the major indexes, but either way, there are several things I would like to follow.

If PCH manages to hold 46.46 or go lower (obviously preferable), then I'd like to put a .5 - 1% trailing stop on it. There was a lot of volume comparable to the average vol (slightly more than double) and the price fell like a rock near the close. I'd like to keep my ~4.4% gain; no real reason to risk it waiting for the price to hit ~44 unless the stock manages to do so tomorrow.

RIMM took another tumble today, albeit with a higher low. I'd like to get out of this stock tomorrow, with the goal of breaking even. RIMM is making some announcements tomorrow. I plan to sell into the hype (should there be any, and there may, given the huge amount of volume over the past few days) or at least place a stop so that should it die, I'll get out. I'm wanting to short this thing again, which means I should probably hold out another day or so.

EGLE is doing shitty. I can't believe I bought it so far away from support. I'm down 10+% in this, which is only ameliorated by the fact that it only takes up < 1/5 of my group of stocks. I'm keeping it, if only for the dividend (~9% at the price I paid). I hope it'll go up, and there was a lot of volume today, but it still appears to be dropping. I'm thinking ~17 is about as low as it goes. At that point both the daily and weekly stoch will be in oversold territory and there's a good chance of a rebound. I can't bite the bullet. And I don't think I have to yet.

I'm keeping XLF as well (it makes up an even smaller portion of my folio than any of the other stocks). It could drop down to the July lows, but it seems unlikely at the moment with FNM/FRE somewhat out of the way. But I'm bracing for it--and I'll definitely buy some more if it goes that low. The market won't go anywhere but down if the financials can't rally. Thus, XLF is probably the safest mistake I'm in right now.

I'm down in INTC as well, but it's no biggie. I'll hold that until ~24 or so, whether it falls to 18 again or not.

I'm up slightly in ADSK. This thing has been strong the last few days. I'm planning on holding it until 37/38.

Now, if I happen to free up some of my capital tomorrow, I'd like to have a few ideas for new purchases. NVDA is nearing its 52 week low again, setting up for a possible W formation (and should the market rally, possibly a huge gap fill...although, that's mostly me dreaming =)). But on the weekly there is a huge amount of volume that pushed the price up to ~13.50 while there is very little volume on the pullback. I'd look for some nice volume on the rise.

SMH or some other semi-conductor company may be good, especially if it opens lower than today's close. That would definitely be bullish, as long as it didn't head too far down.

I'm tempted to buy some ABX. There was huge influx of volume today pushing this stock to gap down this morning. Will the dollar be able to maintain its rally? I'm not really sure. Is the worst over? Maybe once unemployment stats start to drop and home values start to rise. I'd say it's a buy.

I can't believe how tired I'm getting. If I finish my schoolwork before 11, I'll post some more later. If not--good trading.

Monday, September 8, 2008

I sold LIZ for a loss this morning; it scared the crap out of me. The rest of the portfolio is up above. I'm currently down (look at egle and rimm), but I like the possibilities. Wish I sold RIMM this morning at 111, but I was too busy being anxious about liz. And as for egle, I thought I bought it at ~22 but it was really ~23. Oh my, I'm thinking that it will head higher. I'll have a better feel for things tomorrow.

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Will RIMM be able to maintain support at 105? We'll see. I'd like to have it open around the close and then go up from there; close somewhere above yesterday's close. I may get out if those requirements aren't met.

I did both of these trades in the last 10 minutes. I had not wanted to trade today because I didn't feel very well in the morning. But, I saw that the commission was free, and that both LIZ and RIMM looks in decent positions for action. I'm a little unsure about RIMM at the moment; I thought the daily high was 109 or so, but it doesn't look like it was there for very long at all. In any case, RIMM dropped off very fast and I'm expecting a little rebound: hopefully I'll get to put my candlestick knowledge to the test (Morning star anyone?). Of course, I'm not expecting it to go above it's 200 day at about 115. I'll sell and short around there.

As for LIZ. Looks like a bearish hammer formed, and I still hold a slight vendetta with this stock. In any case, looks like it has stopped reaching up (hopefully not just because of the crappy market overall), and has started reaching down. I'm looking for a 10% gain or so, but who knows. This thing could fly all the way back to 20 for all I know (highly unlikely and showing strong resistance at ~17).

Good luck, good trading, and make sure you understand the risk involved before entering any position.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

I still like UNG, obviously not for long term holding (R U NUTZ???); but, instead, for some day trades. Today it looks like it may be setting up for some type of bullish run, small, maybe, but eventually likely. There's a beautiful gap on the chart that is just aching to be filled (that's what gaps do). Not to mention, there was a literal boatload of buyers and sellers, yet, the price maintained a relatively level price throughout the day. I wouldn't be surprised if CNBC, or whatever, scared a lot of small investors into selling their shares by saying gas would continue to fall do to the minimal effect hurricane Gustav had; while, bigger players who are short on UNG are covering their positions at a sweet price. Nothing like the bottom.

Of course, this all speculation. I'm not God, or a demi-god, an insider, nor a computer. Just a humble investor with nothing more than two pennies to rub together.

It looks like there is a bullish trend line forming on the point and figure, not to mention the support that seems to be forming around 28/30. I also like the volume; appears to increase on up days and pull back on down. I wouldn't buy right now (it is still going lower), but I would definitely keep my eye on it. Looks like a nice setup for a run to 33 again; and, perhaps a breakout, in time, from there.

Monday, September 1, 2008

While this is definitely in the past, I really wanted to post the perfect bearish hammer that formed mid-June on CSIQ's chart. The handle is nice and long, the stochastic shows an overbought signal, and the price had increased substantially over the past month and a half. It may be in the past, but at least we can be ready to catch something like this in the future.

Good trading. Make your luck.

Edit: Although the general idea isn't lost, the candle formation above is not called a bearish hammer. It is called a hanging man. As can be seen, I am still learning the technical candlestick names.