Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.

Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the AtlanticTwo other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundredsThe death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to HawaiiTropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.

Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Blog comments not recommended Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I have had very good luck with a program called Malwarebytes. If the virus will let you go to the website, it's www.malwarebytes.org. You can download the free version. I've cleaned several computers with it.

Hope this helps.

I'm going to save that program on a CD and then run it on my main computer

Elena is a prime example of how fast steering can change. Elena was a Cat 3 I believe at Landfall and we experienced her full Fury in Long Beach,Gulfport ,Miss.

A Night Storm that had eye landfall at Dawn,we had about a Half Hour in a Clear eye.

The Seabee Base in Long Beach had to roll out a couple of amtraks during the eye to evacuate Shelter residents at a High School there.A Tornado,in close to the forward side of the Hurricane,came down and just skipped over our Apt,and landed right on the Shelter,a Gym..and peeled the roof off like a can opener.

A true testament of Fate.No one was injured fortunately in the incident.

Also of note,..as the backside approached,we could hear the roar of the Eyewall approaching as we saw the curved structure approaching,and her BAckside was as strong and the front.

I have had very good luck with a program called Malwarebytes. If the virus will let you go to the website, it's www.malwarebytes.org. You can download the free version. I've cleaned several computers with it.

Hope this helps.

I second that. I've used MBAM to clear a lot of infections from my system, and it works great. if the virus doesn't let you go to that site, use another computer to download the setup file to a USB device and transfer that to your infected one.

Quoting guaguapichincha:Hi, sorry to post this picture, but I'm trying to get your attention. Everybody ignored my last post!

Why is it so unlikely that something like this happen again?

Here in New England this is the one that we remember. There is a lot of timber (still!) on hillsides (underneath new growth, of course) that was blown down by this storm.

I ask this because the early TD2 track looks like this. And no, I'm not wishcasting, I realize that there's a very small probability of such a storm happening out of this system.

But WHY? I'm not a meterologist.

Thanks for your help.

Sure, its possible. Any conceivable path for TD 2 is at this point. Model errors increase exponentially with time; beyond a few days they are completely unreliable for forecasting. That is why NHC and other foecasters rely on climatology. Climatology (the cumulative history of forecast hurricane tracks) suggests that the scenario you post is possible. But is it likely? Its far too early to tell. Just keep watching. In a week you'll have a better idea.

I have had very good luck with a program called Malwarebytes. If the virus will let you go to the website, it's www.malwarebytes.org. You can download the free version. I've cleaned several computers with it.

Morning all. Was just reading back a little and I see lots talking about projected paths. Way to early to tell (something has to actually form first) where anything will hit CONUS, if at all. Long term too unpredictable. Even short term is difficult to figure out. In 1985 I evacuated from Elena only to have it make a right turn and head towards S. FLA, and then a week later hunker down as it returned and went right over us in MS. No one saw that coming.