Personal observations of myself, others, states and exile.

The current crisis was initiated by Walid Jumblat, in the wake of a visit to Lebanon by David Welsh, but the two factors are unrelated unless you are on of those who believe in conspiracy theories: do you? Jumblat always goes far in his subservience to outside patrons: he was fanatic in this allegiance to the Syrian regime, and he is now fanatic in his allegiance to the US/Saudi/Israeli plan for Lebanon. And Bush is not less delusional than in 2003: his ignorance of foreign affairs–still as acute as they were when he ran the baseball team–and his religio-political fanaticism put him under the spell of his dangerous dogmas for the region. He really sincerely thinks that he can pull it off: that he can achieve successes for the Bush Doctrine in Palestine, Iraq, and Lebanon before he leaves office. He is rushed now, and it shows. That is why there was a stress on the Dahlan plan: in Palestine and Lebanon. He is unaware that in Lebanon, due to the sectarian divide, no one party (internal or external or both) can impose a one “solution” without achieving the support of Sunnis and Shi`ites. The Ta’if accord had Sunni and Shi`ite support, and Hariri and his allies in Syria, Saudi Arabia and US decided to disregard the Christians, who were seen as demographically insignificant. But to assume that you can impose a solution, or a “vision” to use the language of Sa’ib `Urayqat when he talks about the “vision of his excellency President Bush”, by relying on the Sunnis alone (or the Shi`ites alone) is fallacious. You need both sides for that to happen, and the US can’t have it both ways. It can’t endorse a Sunni-Shi`ite conflict (managed by Saudi Arabia) while aiming to bring both Sunnis and Shi`ites behind you, unless you assume that Ahmad Al-As`ad (who recently was hosted by both, the Center for the Defense of Democracies (where Walid Phares is housed), and the Wilson Center) is now the undisputed leader of Lebanon’s Shi`ites. Most ironic today was the sight of the (Sunni) Mufti of Lebanon doing his best impersonation of Zarqawi. He was engaged in sectarian agitation and mobilization while calling for Muslim unity.