With the House update done, it is as always time to finish the new Senate update. Last week the pace of Republican gains rebounded strong as the party made gains in surprising places. The question this week is: will they hold, or will Democrats pull that projected gain back to six?

Situation

Senate right now: 59 D-41 R.

Seats up right now: 19 D-18 R.

Seats therefore not up: 40 D-23 R.

Minimum result needed for majority: -9 for Democrats, +10 for Republicans.

Method

I’m going to work off the polls when they’re available, working from Real Clear Politics, giving double weight now to Likely Voter polls, and make guesses otherwise. That’s usually easy because the seats that aren’t polled are typically safe. Changes from last time will be in boldface.

Seats

AL: Richard Shelby: Lead has grown to +32 in Rasmussen. 99.9% R victory.

The simulation

100,000 trials using the probabilities above.

Results

And the Republicans gain further. The party is still most likely to gain 7 seats, but +8 is a quarter more likely than +6, in second place. Those three outcomes account for 64% (63,784/100,000) of the curve. 7.5% (7,518/100,000) of the trials gave Republicans a Senate majority, a record high in my projection. Democrats never gained seats, and only held even 5 times out of 100,000

Mostly lots of small changes were the story of the week, though Republicans were glad of West Virginia’s new polling. Colorado is also beginning to look less competitive. But California is showing no change again, and Washington is more comfortable for Democrats than it has been.