Well . . .

by Pejman Yousefzadeh on September 17, 2012

Whether Mitt Romney was right or not in making the comments he made in the video that got leaked to Mother Jones–and there is reason to believe that Romney was right about much of the substance–today hasn’t been a good day for Romney. Indeed, the past few days haven’t been good for Romney, and while much of that is due to the fact that a great deal of the media is in the tank for Barack Obama, none of that absolves the Romney campaign for its errors of judgment. Successful Republican candidates understand that the media is out to get them and as a consequence, they don’t give the media a target to shoot out. But Mitt Romney has not been a successful Republican candidate thus far.

It’s entirely possible that Romney can turn things around, or that things suddenly start going terribly wrong for the Obama campaign. But I don’t see that happening. The narrative of this campaign appears to be baked in; the Romney campaign is seen as going from stumble to stumble, while Barack Obama uses his opponent’s clumsiness to distract from his own poor record. All of this is a shame; the president was genuinely vulnerable this year, but Romney doesn’t seem to have closed the sale. And while I hope I am wrong, I am afraid that I don’t think he will. Miracles can happen, so I don’t think that Republicans should give up the ship, especially given the fact that the party still has to worry about downticket races. But in my little corner of the Blogosphere, I am prepared to make my prediction. Obama–53%, Romney–47%. And here is what I think that the electoral college map will look like.

A note for commenters who share my political leanings and who don’t like the fact that I have written this post: Let me assure you that I didn’t like writing it either. But I have to call ‘em as I see ‘em. And again, I hope that I am wrong, but in the event that any of you feel like telling me that I am a Nervous Nellie, or that I am throwing in the towel, please spare me. I am making a prediction based on my honest beliefs regarding the state of the race, and how I expect it to turn out. That is all.

So what predictions will you make of an Obama second term? 3 things he’ll definitely do…?

Pejman_Yousefzadeh

Solidify Obamacare and try to take credit for a potentially recovering economy.

Ryan

We can debate what errors the Romney campaign may or may not have made over the last few weeks, but I will certainly agree that the media narrative has been against him. Despite everything, however, Gallup’s poll today had Romney behind Obama by 1 among registered voters. Rasmussen has him up by 2. And the numbers have been moving in his favor as Obama’s convention bounce has deflated. On top of that, Romney and the Republican Super PACs will have a cash advantage from here on out and can start flooding the airwaves.
You seem to have made your decision, but I am curious: do you think the Gallup and Rasmussen polls are just outliers? Or do you think that this video represents a tipping point that will cause Romney to drop 5-7 points in the polls by November?

Pejman_Yousefzadeh

I think that the campaign is inept and that it is perfectly capable of stepping into more mistakes. They have a gift for allowing Obama to shift the narrative from the economy. And if that isn’t enough, Obama appears to have an easier path to 270 electoral votes than Romney does.

DemosthenesVW

Absolutely preposterous. Not your idea that Obama will win the election…it saddens me to say that such an eventuality remains well within the realm of possibility. But 53-47? Absolutely preposterous. (I assume, for the post that follows, that you mean a 53-47 breakdown in the two-party share of the vote.)

Here’s one way of looking at what you’re saying. Today is September 22. The most recent Gallup numbers, released yesterday, have the race at 47-47. The most recent Rasmussen numbers, also released yesterday, have the race at 46-46. Assuming those numbers to be accurate, you’re saying that over the next six weeks, pretty much every undecided voter in the whole country will break Obama’s way.

Here’s another way of looking at what you’re saying. In 2008, the worst two-way race for any Republican candidate since Johnson trounced Goldwater in ’64, Barack Obama managed to get 53.7% of the two-way vote (52.9% overall) to John McCain’s 46.3% (45.7% overall.) In other words, you’re saying that after four years of a failed presidency, after the Republicans posted a 60-seat gain in the House and a 6-seat gain in the Senate in 2010 (and gained control of state houses and state legislatures across the country), and with voter enthusiasm levels at historical highs for Republicans and at historical lows for Democrats…Mitt Romney will gain maybe a point on John McCain’s trouncing in the popular vote, and only about 35 votes* in the Electoral College.

You have some ‘splaining to do. Because while Obama might well beat Romney, and it pains me to admit that, your numbers are lower than the feasible low end of extreme pessimism.

* Taking into account that McCain would have won 179 electoral votes, not 173, under 2012 electoral distribution.

Pejman_Yousefzadeh

As I keep stating in situations like this, I hope that I am wrong. But I think that moderates and independents–along with people who like voting for the candidate they believe will win the election–will break for Obama at the end of the day.