Commentary and Tracking of a Portfolio of Stocks using approach from "The Little Book that Beats the Market" by Joel Greenblatt aka Magic Formula Investing

Saturday, May 06, 2017

The May Tranche Is Dead!

The May Tranche Is Dead! Long Live The May Tranche!

Well, another tranche is done. For my Select Magic Portfolios, that is 16 tranches that have hit their one year anniversary since my Aug 2012 reboot.

As I mentioned earlier, this tranche was a slight loser (90 basis points as UTHR stumbled down the stretch (UTHR was 52% - they finished at 14%). So overall, up 19.1% - hard to complain. Besides tracking against the benchmark, I also like to track against the 5 stocks from a year ago and my rejects.

Ticker

Start

End

Change

XPER

30.46

31.90

4.7%

CBI

38.23

29.30

-23.4%

PSDV

2.87

1.97

-31.4%

KORS

50.87

38.10

-25.1%

DEPO

15.51

11.35

-26.8%

-20.4%

Glad I sold those bad boys (though sadly I kept CBI).

Now the rejects were remarkable.

Ticker

Start

End

Change

AAPL

92.92

148.96

60.3%

LDOS

35.00

54.47

55.6%

AGX

33.83

69.20

104.6%

AMAG

19.85

19.10

-3.8%

IQNT

15.85

22.90

44.5%

52.2%

Note that does not include some dividends as well. That would bump another point. Wish I had bought those good boys. In hindsight, AAPL was a screaming buy.

Here are the five stocks I bought:

5/6/2016

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

BRCD

$7.97

$12.57

$0.17

59.8%

20.0%

CBI

$37.82

$29.30

$0.28

-21.8%

20.0%

HSII

$18.51

$21.65

$0.52

19.8%

20.0%

RHI

$38.51

$46.91

$0.90

24.1%

20.0%

UTHR

$107.99

$122.84

$0.00

13.8%

20.0%

Totals

19.1%

20.0%

Ditch CBI and it would have been very good!

All Closed Portfolios

When I hit an anniversary, I like to publish all closed portfolios.

8/15/12 Stocks

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

DLB

$34.43

$33.04

$4.00

7.6%

22.1%

KFY

$13.98

$18.95

$0.00

35.6%

22.1%

MSFT

$30.19

$31.92

$0.92

8.8%

22.1%

NSU

$3.62

$3.33

$0.12

-4.6%

22.1%

UIS

$19.96

$24.52

$0.00

22.8%

22.1%

Totals

14.1%

22.1%

11/15/12 Stocks

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

AAPL

$537.62

$527.28

$8.75

-0.3%

36.7%

ABC

$40.21

$69.23

$0.86

74.3%

36.7%

LPS

$23.89

$34.26

$0.40

45.1%

36.7%

VIAB

$49.12

$80.94

$1.15

67.1%

36.7%

WU

$12.77

$16.40

$0.50

32.3%

36.7%

Totals

43.7%

36.7%

2/1/13 Stocks

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

AAPL

$450.60

$500.66

$8.75

13.1%

21.1%

GA

$6.10

$11.01

$0.65

91.2%

21.1%

STRZA

$16.06

$27.98

$0.00

74.2%

21.1%

CA

$25.07

$32.08

$1.00

32.0%

21.1%

NUS

$41.94

$116.59

$1.20

180.8%

21.1%

Totals

78.3%

21.1%

5/6/2013

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

KLIC

$11.40

$14.44

$0.00

26.7%

18.9%

CYOU

$29.24

$28.02

$0.00

-4.2%

18.9%

RDA

$9.74

$16.79

$0.10

73.5%

18.9%

NVDA

$13.85

$18.43

$0.32

35.4%

18.9%

CF

$183.97

$243.22

$2.80

33.7%

18.9%

Totals

33.0%

18.9%

8/15/2013

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

CF

$187.26

$247.43

$4.50

34.5%

19.4%

FLR

$66.06

$73.03

$0.53

11.4%

19.4%

AGX

$15.60

$36.71

$0.75

140.1%

19.4%

KLIC

$11.29

$14.26

$0.00

26.3%

19.4%

RPXC

$15.92

$15.09

$0.00

-5.2%

19.4%

Totals

41.4%

19.4%

11/15/13 Stocks

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

AVG

$17.22

$19.21

$0.00

11.6%

14.5%

ATVI

$17.71

$20.10

$0.20

14.6%

14.5%

GA

$9.04

$11.90

$0.23

34.2%

14.5%

RPXC

$17.04

$13.91

$0.00

-18.4%

14.5%

SYNA

$48.01

$61.90

$0.00

28.9%

14.5%

Totals

14.2%

14.5%

2/1/14 Stocks

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

ATVI

$17.13

$20.90

$0.20

23.1%

12.9%

KLAC

$61.47

$61.47

$18.40

29.9%

12.9%

RPXC

$16.22

$12.35

$0.00

-23.9%

12.9%

SNDK

$69.55

$75.91

$0.83

10.3%

12.9%

WNR

$39.11

$37.13

$3.04

2.7%

12.9%

Totals

8.5%

12.9%

5/6/2014

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

AVG

$19.57

$23.27

$0.00

18.9%

12.9%

CA

$29.54

$31.41

$1.00

9.7%

12.9%

CSCO

$22.79

$28.89

$0.78

30.2%

12.9%

NSR

$25.82

$30.69

$0.00

18.9%

12.9%

RCII

$28.78

$31.77

$0.94

13.7%

12.9%

Totals

18.3%

12.9%

8/15/2014

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

CSCO

$24.40

$28.95

$0.80

21.9%

8.8%

AGX

$36.71

$40.69

$0.70

12.7%

8.8%

ITRN

$21.32

$25.11

$0.87

21.9%

8.8%

BRCD

$9.34

$10.15

$0.15

10.3%

8.8%

CBI

$58.25

$51.70

$0.21

-10.9%

8.8%

Totals

11.2%

8.8%

11/15/2014

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

FLR

$64.80

$47.46

$0.84

-25.5%

0.8%

IPCM

$38.45

$80.03

$0.00

108.1%

0.8%

VIAB

$72.29

$50.69

$1.46

-27.9%

0.8%

NHTC

$12.19

$51.46

$0.06

322.6%

0.8%

AWRE

$4.40

$3.07

$0.00

-30.2%

0.8%

Totals

69.4%

0.8%

2/1/2015

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

VEC

$28.00

$19.76

$0.00

-29.4%

-2.6%

QCOM

$62.73

$45.34

$1.86

-24.8%

-2.6%

VIAB

$63.91

$44.90

$1.53

-27.4%

-2.6%

UIS

$22.03

$10.87

$0.00

-50.7%

-2.6%

NHTC

$12.44

$19.95

$0.05

60.8%

-2.6%

Totals

-14.3%

-2.6%

5/6/2015

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

CBI

$50.38

$38.23

$0.14

-23.8%

-0.9%

PSDV

$4.12

$2.87

$0.00

-30.4%

-0.9%

TSRA

$38.94

$30.46

$0.80

-19.7%

-0.9%

KORS

$62.24

$50.87

$0.00

-18.3%

-0.9%

DEPO

$23.50

$15.51

$0.00

-34.0%

-0.9%

Totals

-25.2%

-0.9%

8/17/2015

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

VDSI

$18.66

$17.45

$0.00

-6.5%

5.3%

SALE

$9.34

$11.75

$0.00

25.8%

5.3%

CSCO

$28.95

$31.20

$0.94

11.0%

5.3%

TGNA

$25.30

$21.37

$0.56

-13.3%

5.3%

HSII

$20.14

$19.19

$0.39

-2.8%

5.3%

Totals

2.8%

5.3%

11/15/2015

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

LCI

$34.01

$24.25

$0.00

-28.7%

8.1%

SAVE

$34.48

$53.39

$0.00

54.9%

8.1%

PPC

$18.98

$19.46

$2.75

17.0%

8.1%

VEC

$23.60

$22.25

$0.00

-5.7%

8.1%

VNCE

$3.99

$4.10

$0.00

2.8%

8.1%

Totals

8.0%

8.1%

2/1/2016

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

VEC

$19.64

$22.54

$0.00

14.8%

21.4%

QCOM

$45.18

$53.43

$2.07

22.9%

21.4%

PERI

$2.45

$1.86

$0.00

-24.1%

21.4%

DEPO

$15.34

$18.09

$0.00

17.9%

21.4%

TDC

$24.02

$29.36

$0.00

22.2%

21.4%

Totals

10.7%

21.4%

5/6/2016

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

BRCD

$7.97

$12.57

$0.17

59.8%

20.0%

CBI

$37.82

$29.30

$0.28

-21.8%

20.0%

HSII

$18.51

$21.65

$0.52

19.8%

20.0%

RHI

$38.51

$46.91

$0.90

24.1%

20.0%

UTHR

$107.99

$122.84

$0.00

13.8%

20.0%

Totals

19.1%

20.0%

Ahh, sweet memories.

Now, when I make this switch, I often re-check my formulas. I found a mistake in the comparison between MFI and benchmark. I had not given the August 2016 benchmark credit (up about 11%). Whoops. So I have fixed. Here is the month by month comparison (I fixed 5/1 as well).

Date

Differential

MFI Value

R3K Value

12/1/2012

-2.20%

99,765

101,965

1/1/2013

-1.78%

102,798

104,575

2/1/2013

-2.26%

102,594

104,856

3/1/2013

-2.23%

102,881

105,114

4/1/2013

-0.43%

106,804

107,234

5/1/2013

2.00%

110,423

108,423

6/1/2013

4.75%

115,831

111,085

7/1/2013

4.29%

114,888

110,597

8/1/2013

6.91%

124,799

117,889

9/1/2013

10.46%

124,536

114,079

10/1/2013

19.67%

138,655

118,990

11/1/2013

19.75%

143,514

123,764

12/1/2013

23.70%

150,105

126,405

1/1/2014

26.63%

157,138

130,503

2/1/2014

24.70%

150,619

125,918

3/1/2014

25.66%

158,116

132,458

4/1/2014

30.38%

162,991

132,616

5/1/2014

29.65%

162,428

132,779

6/1/2014

31.44%

167,001

135,559

7/1/2014

39.23%

177,971

138,740

8/1/2014

31.13%

167,054

135,922

9/1/2014

35.90%

177,792

141,892

10/1/2014

29.38%

168,321

138,944

11/1/2014

26.14%

168,810

142,666

12/1/2014

30.22%

176,420

146,198

1/1/2015

28.17%

174,306

146,140

2/1/2015

20.63%

162,833

142,201

3/1/2015

25.15%

175,476

150,324

4/1/2015

29.95%

178,565

148,612

5/1/2015

37.31%

186,655

149,348

6/1/2015

51.53%

202,897

151,371

7/1/2015

62.69%

211,437

148,743

8/1/2015

40.75%

192,117

151,369

9/1/2015

36.41%

178,603

142,195

10/1/2015

43.12%

181,175

138,052

11/1/2015

69.02%

217,959

148,936

12/1/2015

73.49%

223,435

149,946

1/1/2016

63.33%

209,514

146,186

2/1/2016

49.49%

187,428

137,934

3/1/2016

56.48%

194,415

137,934

4/1/2016

47.34%

195,770

148,430

5/1/2016

46.38%

194,301

147,923

6/1/2016

51.44%

201,999

150,558

7/1/2016

50.41%

201,092

150,680

8/1/2016

52.72%

207,223

154,501

9/1/2016

67.04%

222,481

155,446

10/1/2016

42.98%

198,563

155,582

11/1/2016

41.86%

195,726

153,863

12/1/2016

45.92%

202,775

156,859

1/1/2017

47.19%

209,503

162,313

2/1/2017

47.65%

212,330

164,675

3/1/2017

52.99%

222,583

169,589

4/1/2017

54.43%

224,094

169,663

5/1/2017

55.80%

231,497

175,712

Current

54.70%

231,215

176,512

So my lead is not 60 points (as I posted earlier today) but rather closer to 55 points.

Newest Tranche

Here is my newest tranche:

5/6/2017

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

WSTC

$24.15

$24.15

$0.00

0.0%

0.0%

TGNA

$25.75

$25.75

$0.00

0.0%

0.0%

TIME

$15.05

$15.05

$0.00

0.0%

0.0%

MSGN

$23.55

$23.55

$0.00

0.0%

0.0%

QCOM

$54.93

$54.93

$0.00

0.0%

0.0%

Totals

0.0%

0.0%

Many of these have special circumstances that I find intriguing. WSTC is being rumored to be bought. I have heard prices around $30 and prices around $24. Hopefully $24 is the floor. At this cycle in market, I am ok with stocks with limited downside, yet some upside.

TGNA is spinning of Cars.com later this month. I think that may be a catalyst to unlock some value.

TIME rebuffed bids (rumored to be MDP). I think a chance MDP comes back with higher did (their stock price dropped when TIME announced withdrawal). But even without MDP, I like TIME at $15. They pay a 4%+ dividend and with our new 24 hour reality show that is President Trump, we are getting more eyeballs on CNN & Time magazine.

MSGN has also been rumored to sell themselves post their spinoff from MSG.

Finally, QCOM got pretty beat down with AAPL playing hardball. But I think legally AAPL needs to pay QCOM. And then I love the QCOM purchase of NXPI. That sector (think KLAC) has been on fire since merger was announced yet that is not reflected at all in QCOM.