Electoral College Update: It’s TIGHT, with Romney up in popular vote, Obama clinging to Electoral edge

Welcome to our weekly Electoral College update. Every Monday morning between now and Election Day, Nov. 6, we will analyze the latest poll results from the 12 most competitive states and let you know which ones are more Republican than the national average and which are more Democratic. We’ll also give you an update on any major shifts in the battleground states in the preceding week.

The big picture:

There’s very little change in national polling since the final presidential debate. Mitt Romney is ahead in six of the ten most recent nationwide polls, President Obama leads in three and one is tied. If you average them out, Romney is ahead by 0.9 points. Obama, however, clings to a narrow edge in the Electoral College count.

There is no trend in the national tracking. Some polls are moving toward Obama, some toward Romney, some in neither direction. So most of the daily changes you see reported breathlessly on TV are really margin-of-error “static.”

We’ve reduced our true toss-up states to three: Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire. Florida and Colorado narrowly favor Romney (though not by much). Obama is leading in most polling in Nevada and Iowa (though not by much). Romney is hanging tough in Wisconsin, where Republicans have an A+ ground game. The GOP has not carried Wisconsin, home of Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, since 1984.