INFOGRAPHIC: Support for provincial Liberals sagging, new poll finds

The public’s satisfaction with the Liberal government has declined to its lowest level under the current Liberal leadership, as 38 per cent of Nova Scotians indicated they are satisfied with the performance of Stephen McNeil’s Liberal government, down from 46 per cent in October. (TIM KROCHAK / Staff / File)

Support for the provincial Liberal party, while steady, rests at its lowest level since the 2013 election according, to a new poll.

The survey, conducted by Corporate Research Associates (CRA) from Feb. 1 to March 4 found that among decided and leaning voters, 37 per cent supported the Liberals, compared to 38 per cent in November 2017. Closing the gap with the governing party, 34 per cent said they would vote for the opposition Progressive Conservatives, compared to 29 per cent last quarter, while one in four said they would vote NDP (compared to 27 per cent). Four per cent, down from five, said they support the Green party.

The undecided contingent was steady at 26 per cent, while four per cent said they supported none of the parties or do not plan to vote.

“The Conservatives are now legitimately the party in waiting,” Don Mills, CRA chairman and CEO, told The Chronicle Herald.

“We may be witnessing a turning point in the fortunes for the Liberals right now, at least terms of the future for them as a government in this province.”

And it’s not just the party losing favour among voters.

Looking at support for those at the helm, 27 per of Nova Scotians said they support Premier Stephen McNeil, compared with 28 per cent in November 2017, which represents the lowest level of support since McNeil was elected in October 2013. The gap between leaders has also narrowed, with 25 per cent supporting interim PC leader Karla MacFarlane, compared with 21 per cent support for Jamie Baillie three months ago. Baillie stepped down in January amid accusations of sexual harassment.

Support for Gary Burrill of the NDP stands at 21 per cent, up from 18 per cent last quarter, while four per cent said they preferred Thomas Trappenberg of the Green Party (unchanged). Backing for Ryan Smyth of the Atlantica Party is at less than one per cent, compared with 1 per cent for Jonathan Dean last quarter.

Seventeen per cent did not offer a definite opinion, and six per cent said they preferred prefer none of these leaders.

Mills said he’s unsure if Baillie’s exit is what caused the increase in support for the party, but he did say the upcoming leadership convention will likely give the party even more profile.

Finally, government satisfaction has declined to its lowest level under the current Liberal leadership, as 38 per cent of Nova Scotians indicated they are satisfied with the performance of Stephen McNeil’s Liberal government, down from 46 per cent in October, while 56 per cent — up from 47 per cent — said they are dissatisfied. Six per cent did not offer a definite opinion.

Mills said he expects some of this dissatisfaction is due to the controversial, sweeping changes the McNeil government is making to the province’s education system in response to the Glaze report, and the threat of job action by teachers.

“It’s only been a short time since the election, there’s plenty of time before the next election, but when we look back, this may be a watershed moment for the government,” Mills said.

This data was collected as part CRA’s independent, quarterly telephone survey of Atlantic Canadians, and is based on a sample of 800 adult Nova Scotians, with overall results accurate to within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.