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Sovereign & Supranational

Section Overview

Research on sovereign nations, sovereign-related agencies, and supranational institutions.

Highlights

21 May 2018

US withdrawal from Iran deal increases geopolitical risk in the Middle EastThe reimposition of sanctions on Iran would raise the risk of a more interventionist foreign policy from Iran in the Middle East region, which would likely exacerbate conflict hot spots in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. An increase in tensions would in turn drive up military spending across the region, and capital outflows in the case of Lebanon in particular. Full Report​​

15 May 2018

Small, agriculture-reliant sovereigns most vulnerable to climate changeA common characteristic among sovereigns that are most susceptible to climate change is reliance on agriculture that is rain-fed rather than irrigated. However, access to multilateral financial support can offset risks to food security. Full Report​

China's likely refusal of US demands on trade is negative for investment, growth in both countriesChina cannot reduce its trade surplus with the US to the extent and at the pace sought by the US without significantly disrupting its own economy. The potential uncertainty stemming from the two governments' diverging trade policies would likely have a negative impact on investment and growth for both. Full Report​