Bummer that the Vera fight is kaput – was going to take Chito. Oh well. I like Munhoz but I feel Cody is going to bounce back here w/a highlight reel KO. Well, he better anyway lol. The question with Walker is…jump off now or hold on for one more? Is Zabit the real deal? Lotta questions. I feel like Usman, at that price, is going to be major chalk and T-Wood is always up for a “boring” (smart) title defense. Ricky Simon has taught me that I can be salty towards a fighter all I want…and lose money so I can’t discount Shahbazyan. Even though he trains where he trains and screwed me last time out against The Dentist – I can’t pick against him just cos I’m bitter. Does Byrd inspire confidence though? I stayed up all night to watch the Blaydes / Ngannou card in which Zhang SMASHED Aguilar but Tecia’s only losses are to: Rose, Andrade & Joanna.

I had a fair amount of my predictions correct last card, wish I actually picked Struve and Gillian Robertson in my single bullet. Going to post my thoughts again:

Jon Jones smokes Smith for probably 100~ or more fpts. Although he’s capable of finishing it in the first round, there’ll probably be a bit of a feeling out process and I see it being 2nd or 3rd round stoppage. Absolutely no problem taking it to the ground if he wants and finish it Gus style or go for a submission. He’s going to be super chalky I’d imagine and maybe the perfect lineup has fighters that have more fpts than Jones for the price? Dunno.

Woodley is a bad matchup for Usman, with the caveat being if the gas tank holds up for 5 rounds. Weigh-ins today showed Usman being noticeably bigger than him which gave me pause. Woodley looks smaller than usual to me. Feel like he may actually be in trouble if he doesn’t hurt Usman with his powerful right hand early in the fight.. which is totally possible. Personally fading this fight in my single bullet as I think it’s going to be one of those boring type of Woodley fights with not much fpts to be had.

Askren fight has a lot of question marks from both sides. Askren’s style is really fantasy friendly with his takedown spams and advancing, which over the course of 3 rounds, along with strikes, will add up to a lot of fpts. It’s also possible that he submits Lawler. On the flipside, the only way I see Lawler winning is via KO. So one of these 2 fighters in the winning lu wouldn’t surprise me given the possible outcomes to be expected.

Torres is by far Weili’s toughest test up to this point in her career. I don’t see Weili mowing her down for a finish like she has everyone else which caps her fpts potential. I do see her winning a close decision over Torres using her aggression however, since Torres lacks power big time. I’m fading this fight think there’s better ones to choose from.

Cody Garbrandt raises a lot of question marks to me. Back to back KO losses makes me scared about his chin. I also question how much of a hit he took mentally too. What he went through is pretty brutal. His fight IQ is moderately questionable. He has a clear speed advantage over Munhoz. Cody is a counter striker which we saw Munhoz struggle against in the form of Dodson in which he lost. If Cody fights smart and to his strengths he should have an edge but it’s far from a guarantee. Feels 50/50 to me but Munhoz strikes as the better value for the price. I’d go Munhoz or “wait and see” approach to see where Cody’s at.

Zabit is much more skilled than Steph. If he follows the gameplan and doesn’t act like a clown trading bombs he should win. Steph only has 1 way to win and that’s KO. I could see Zabit winning decision or employing his grappling to get a submission. His striking is really good but don’t think he has enough power to KO stephens. For all his 15 losses only twice was he ko’d, one being the most recent by Aldo’s body shot. So yeah I believe in this hype train unlike walker, and will probably use Zabit.

Walker is overrated. His grappling skills is amateur. If Misha takes him to the ground it’s going to be a hell of a time for Walker. Misha is a tough dude who’s fought much better competition than Walker. His wife is currently getting treated for cancer and he’ll be zoned in and perform the fight of his life. He’s had a full camp whereas Walker literally just fought a month ago and already back to cutting for this fight. He also said in an interview recently that he wants to go 3 rounds to test himself instead of going for quick KO. It would be foolish of me to say Walker can’t KO Misha, so either fighter who wins will likely have a lot of fpts.

I don’t know much about Stamann and Perez. Stamann looks like he has really strong wrestling, no doubt in my mind he’ll takedown Perez. However his top control seems suspect, Perez will likely be able to get up. Perez also seems to have a knack of winning decisions in fights that he lost. Don’t know if bribes the judges or some shit but if it goes distance kinda feel Perez steals it. I’m just going to fade this fight but it’s mostly from ignorance.

Diego Sanchez is a big dog in this fight but F that, I don’t agree. Gall’s overrated.. Diego’s chin might be weaker than an infants’ at this stage but Gall’s striking is not good. Gall has won all his fight via submission, however Diego has never been submitted before. Not only that but Diego should have a big advantage when the fight hits the ground. Just watch what happened to Gall when he fought brown, it was really bad on the ground for him. The first 10-20s of the round will be scary then I’m expecting Diego to control the match from there. Even at 7100 he may not give enough pts but I’ll take a stab probably.

Watched a little tape on the Byrd fight. Think he has a small edge on the ground maybe? Don’t think Edmen wants the fight to go to the ground. Really don’t know what’s going to happen here lol. I’m predicting a finish but from whom it’s a coinflip to me.

Last 2 fights are typical low level wmma.. But I have some interest in Cifers. If she keeps the fight standing up she could edge out a decision, maybe even a ko, since she outclasses Viana in that aspect. For a small girl in the division she’s surprisingly pretty damn strong, and she’s ferocious isn’t afraid to go in war. Viana’s takedowns are pretty shabby for a fighter who wants the fight to go to the ground. IF she does get Cifers down it’s most likely over. As long as Cifers avoids the cage and doesn’t get bodylocked to the ground or some shit I actually think she can win.

fading the main event, though i think it’ll be exciting i don’t see much reason to take jones at that price. (20%~)

i’m all in on usman, i said a year ago i think he’ll be the champ and i’m not going back now! garbrandt is my other lock, hes really good, just not as good as TJ. his mentality will be his biggest test. (100%)

johnny walker? i’m a drunk and enjoyed his last fight. (70%)

as for underdogs idk. I’m a big mickey gall fan (punch drunk sports podcast), but diego is gonna be diego…gall cannot outstrike diego and he consistently talks about how improved his striking is. (30% diego).

stephens/zabit. oh man, what a test for the young fella. i actually like stephens here, but only if he gets in a brawl (ie zabit/bochniak). i’m clueless, as i am with the rest of mid-priced fights – thats why i’m here.

Long story short – I am now in possession of a kitten that was abandoned. She’s very friendly to me but does not like my dog – that’s gonna be a deal breaker if I can’t get it resolved. I’m going to try to work this out though. My dog was f’ed up herself when I got her (she’s got 3 1/2 legs lol). Her name is Whiskey a.k.a. Pickles a.k.a Pickleface! Obviously not talking to anyone on here but people need to take care of their f’ng animals! Damn. It’s really not that hard. Ok, sorry – had to vent. I’m done now.

I think a lot of people are going to be on Munhoz cos of his price, game logs & combine that with Cody’s losses to TJ. I’m going the other way – Cody needs to get back on track w/a a big KO here. Maybe seeing TJ get lit up made him feel better lol. Also piggybacking on Ookin’s take – leaning Misha over a highly owned Walker. Gotta take some chances, who knows though.

Feels 50/50 to me but Munhoz strikes as the better value for the price. I’d go Munhoz or “wait and see” approach to see where Cody’s at.

Definitely liking Munhoz here. Cody is so overrated. He fought the perfect fight against Cruz, can’t deny that. But he had a relatively easy road to the title shot, yeah he murked Almeida but we’ve seen what has become of him. Idk, I honestly feel that Munhoz is the better fighter I really do. Munhoz by Dec.

Long story short – I am now in possession of a kitten that was abandoned. She’s very friendly to me but does not like my dog – that’s gonna be a deal breaker if I can’t get it resolved. I’m going to try to work this out though. My dog was f’ed up herself when I got her (she’s got 3 1/2 legs lol). Her name is Whiskey a.k.a. Pickles a.k.a Pickleface! Obviously not talking to anyone on here but people need to take care of their f’ng animals! Damn. It’s really not that hard. Ok, sorry – had to vent. I’m done now.

Hope it works out man. I was in a similar situation a couple years ago but it ended up working out, just took time. I could never abandon my pets, would never be able to live with myself. Some people are scum unfortunately.

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Oh man, this card. So many good fights to target…and what makes it especially interesting to me is you can make a solid case to fade one, if not both, of the title fights. I could see Woodley winning ugly and Jones winning, but not scoring enough to pay off the price. My gut says they both lose, but who the hell knows. I’ll have my share of both fights, but not going all in on the 5 round fights main event/title fights like I usually do.

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@someclevername said...

Long story short – I am now in possession of a kitten that was abandoned. She’s very friendly to me but does not like my dog – that’s gonna be a deal breaker if I can’t get it resolved. I’m going to try to work this out though. My dog was f’ed up herself when I got her (she’s got 3 1/2 legs lol). Her name is Whiskey a.k.a. Pickles a.k.a Pickleface! Obviously not talking to anyone on here but people need to take care of their f’ng animals! Damn. It’s really not that hard. Ok, sorry – had to vent. I’m done now.

Good luck man, hope it works out. We have two rescue dogs at the ttucowboy residence.

Hope it works out man. I was in a similar situation a couple years ago but it ended up working out, just took time. I could never abandon my pets, would never be able to live with myself. Some people are scum unfortunately.

Yeah, people suck. I’m not really a cat person – my mom always took in every stray cat for miles when I was growing up – but I can’t lie. She’s frickin’ cute. And she thinks she’s hot sh*t now, running all around. She was growling at my dog, I picked her up – I’m like what are you gonna do? You weigh a 1/2 pound. You’ll do fookin’ nuttin’! lol

I’m wondering if Garbrandt / Munhoz turns out like Mendes / Volkanovski. Totally different fight but I was high on Chad and thought Volk’s price was a trap. I was very wrong there. Maybe Munhoz is the play, hmm.

Lol yeah, that’s my gut feeling. Jones didn’t impress me in his last fight. I have more Jones than Smith, but definitely have a few Smith stabs.

I wasn’t impressed either, but tbf he had around 1.5yr layoff between fights. I think his fight camp, facing gus, and now another fight camp will show us a more sharp Jones. Free license to carry around picograms in his body must be nice too lol.

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@Kamais_Ookin said...

I wasn’t impressed either, but tbf he had around 1.5yr layoff between fights. I think his fight camp, facing gus, and now another fight camp will show us a more sharp Jones. Free license to carry around picograms in his body must be nice too lol.

Fair points for sure. Everything on paper says Jones should smoke him. We all know how those situations can turn out sometimes. All it takes is one punch.

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@iron_tactics said...

Yeah but Jones has been and is super durable. Smith is knocking out faded fighters and finishing gassed ones

Definitely, the odds are stacked against Smith. His price in a title fight + me not being impressed with Jones in his last fight was worth a few stabs for me. I do have more Jones and the bigger question for me is will Jones payoff that big price tag.

Definitely, the odds are stacked against Smith. His price in a title fight + me not being impressed with Jones in his last fight was worth a few stabs for me. I do have more Jones and the bigger question for me is will Jones payoff that big price tag.

I think he does I’m just hoping it doesn’t end up on the optimal lineup

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