Crisis? Or just bad luck?

Yes – it’s true that both Brisbane and Gold Coast have fallen victim to big losses over the last month. It’s also true that they both played poorly last weekend. But is it really their fault? And with a bit of luck, would both teams even have a crisis on their hands?

People in the media have slammed the state of football in Queensland at the moment without seemingly looking at the big picture. Or, at least, that’s the way I’m looking at things at the moment.

With a bit of luck, could things turn around before the season is out?

Both sides have horror injury lists when you consider what both sides have had to field over the last couple of weeks. Arguably, it has been worse at the Gold Coast, but Brisbane’s is nothing to be taken lightly as well when you analyse what’s going wrong.

Gold Coast first. Their current injury list is a trainwreck, and it’s a big part of why they have not only lost their last five games, but have been rendered largely uncompetitive. Who knows what the reason is – is it just bad luck? The strength and conditioning coach perhaps pushing players too hard? Recruits are injury prone?

Whatever the case, the injury list for the Suns is a nightmare as such that they are barely fielding enough numbers in their NEAFL side – and that’s been the case for the last two seasons now. Numbers have dwindled at training, where there are more footballers doing work on the sidelines rather than perfecting their game.

Consider for a moment your side missing players the equivalent of Gary Ablett, Dion Prestia, Jaeger O’Meara, David Swallow, Rory Thompson and Steven May for long periods of time. And, if you want to take a narrower look, consider then potentially missing out on Touk Miller, Michael Rischitelli, Alex Sexton, Matt Rosa, Aaron Hall, Adam Saad, Peter Wright and Tom Nicholls – all recent fixtures of the best 22 potentially missing this weekend.

It’s little wonder the Suns have failed to be competitive when all those factors come together. The injury list means that there is an overload of defenders currently staying fit, meaning that the side is going to struggle to score goals.

Brisbane don’t have it as heavy as the Suns but injuries have played a factor too.

One of footy’s most staggering injury statistics recently popped up prior to the Lions’ clash with Port Adelaide just a couple of weeks ago – it was that the quartet of Dayne Beams, Tom Rockliff, Daniel Rich and Pearce Hanley was able to play together in the same lineup for just the fifth time in 30 games stemming from Beams’ recruitment. That’s getting them once in every six games – the football equivalent (or near enough) to a blue moon.

Of course, history from that Power game at the Adelaide Oval suggests now that Rockliff did his hamstring, meaning he’d have to miss a few more weeks on the sidelines. The next week, Beams injured his knee, CEO Greg Swann says he might have to miss the rest of the season. Justin Leppitsch is unlucky in that regard.

Opposition forwards also gets to feast on having to play such an undersized defense that Brisbane have to play due to injury. Promising young key defender Harris Andrews is currently sitting on the sidelines, and Justin Clarke, another young defender who looked the goods, retired during pre-season due to the onset of concussion. Two shattering blows.

Another thing to keep in mind is that both have shown obvious improvement compared to last season – even if the Lions aren’t getting the desired results.

We were all impressed with Gold Coast’s start to the season, even if their wins came against sides the calibre of Essendon, Fremantle and Carlton. Their midfield unit, whilst not completely full strength, looked coherent with the addition of Ablett and Prestia back into the side, allowing Aaron Hall to run around and get his own footy, while the likes of Rischitelli and Miller continued their solid form from 2015. Up forward, Tom Lynch was dominating (he still is, mind you), while Thompson and May successfully nullified all three forward lines together.

It’s no coincidence that since Thompson’s absence from the side, Gold Coast have not won a game. They were at least competitive against current ladder leaders North Melbourne, but their injury list intensified to a point where they could not compete with Geelong, Melbourne and GWS this season – three sides who have impressed the football world so far.

Adelaide this weekend represents another tough test for the Suns, particularly considering that Ablett and Hall may be added to the injury list for the weekend.

The Lions have been somewhat more competitive than they were to start off 2015, bursting the Suns’ bubble in Round Four, also competitive against North Melbourne and, to some extent, West Coast, while they were unlucky not to knock off Sydney after pushing hard for a win just a few weeks back.

The man-management improvement under Leppitsch has been immense – far from the man who saw controversy over the jumper-grabbing incident with Zac O’Brien, the Lions rookie from a couple of seasons back. A look at the video that surfaced online this week surrounding the debut of Rhys Mathieson shows that the Lions are far from a feuding outfit right now, just one that’s struggling on the field due to their depth being tested.

With their injuries, too much is being asked of Rich and Hanley at the moment, while Tom Bell and Ryan Bastinac, recruits who would have complimented their best four midfielders, haven’t been able to produce dominant performances yet.

Without a doubt, if the Lions can get some luck, the ingredients are also there – consider the Lions with Beams, Rockliff, Rich, Hanley, Bell, Bastinac, Dayne Zorko, Stefan Martin Allen Christensen and Mitch Robinson on the park at the same time, then factor in over the next couple of years the development of Josh Schache and Eric Hipwood with the likes of Lewis Taylor and Josh Green at their feet, plus the potential defensive partnership of Andrews and Daniel McStay. It’s not a bad line-up.

Maybe we won’t see it initially, but once there’s some luck going the way of both sides, things aren’t so bad after all.

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