The Carolina Hurricanes goalie predicament for 2018-19

On Friday afternoon, I happened upon a great Canes hockey conversation Twitter concerning the state of the Hurricanes goaltending and the best path forward. One of the silver linings for me right now is seeing how many core fans are still passionate and engaged despite the team’s struggles.

Coming off a 2017-18 season that continues a long run during which goaltending has been an Achilles’ heel, the situation is complex. Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers my 2 cents on the situation and the best path(s) forward.

The contract situation

At a contract level, the situation is eerily (and painfully similar to the summer of 2016). That offseason saw Cam Ward coming off of his contract and scheduled to become a free agent, and Eddie Lack coming off a rough first season in a Hurricanes uniform and under contract for two more seasons.

Fast forward to the end of the 2017-18 season and situation is quite similar. Cam Ward is again coming off of a contract and scheduled to become a free agent on July 1 if not re-signed before then. And Scott Darling is coming off of a rough first season in a Hurricanes uniform and under contract for three more years.

There are couple modest but significant differences. This time around, Ward is technically coming off of a season when he was supposed to be the backup (though he assumed the starter’s role in mid December) and is also coming off at decent if not better season (especially when graded as a backup). In 2016, Ward was coming off of a tough campaign just like Lack. The other difference is the amount of money involved. In 2016, Lack had two years remaining at $2.75 million per year for $5.5 million total. This time around, Darling has three years remaining at an average of $4 million per year for a total of $12 million. The term is an additional year, and the dollar amount remaining is more than double.

Scott Darling

Especially if the Hurricanes fall out of the playoff hunt completely, I think it makes sense to give Scott Darling the lion’s share (everything except half of the remaining back-to-backs?) of the remaining 2017-18 workload. While each game remaining does have some role in grading Darling’s 2017-18 season and evaluating him for the future, in my book we have mostly reached the point where Darling’s 2017-18 season was a failure. A massive run of 9 or 10 wins that pushes the team into the playoffs would change that, but any other version of ‘he played better down the stretch’ (after the playoffs were out of reach) does not buy much in my end of season evaluation. While those desperately seeking half full would have some ammunition, for me, 8-10 starts after the fate of the season was more or less decided will not overshadow 5 months of struggles. In fact, one of the risks is that a short burst of a few good starts clouds the picture and becomes fool’s gold that impacts preparation for the 2018-19 season

In terms of assessing Scott Darling’s 2017-18 season thus far, it just has not been good enough. The basic statistics say so. The more advanced statistics say so. The eye test says so. And the lack of confidence that he generally breeds right now also says so. And with possibly minor adjustments from the last 14 games of the season, that is how he will enter the offseason.

If Darling was scheduled to become a free agent this summer, the situation would be simple. But with three years of contract and $12 million committed, the contract situation makes things much more complex.

Could Scott Darling rebound?

Yes. Definitely yes. Important to note is that Scott Darling is not a young prospect who has not and might never prove that he is capable of winning at the NHL level. He proved in Chicago that he could play well and win at the NHL level, and because of that it is definitely possible that he does it again.

But that’s not exactly the right question…

The question is not whether Darling could rebound after an offseason to reset and with a fresh start. Further, the question is not whether he will rebound in 2018-19. That binary ‘yes’ or ‘no’ is simply placing a random bet and rolling dice with whatever odds as if you are at a small stakes craps table and have a bunch more chips left to play with if the first roll fails.

You only get one roll for picking a starting goalie for the 2018-19 season.

Given that, the right question is trying to assign a probability to a Scott Darling rebound in 2018-19 and comparing that to the probability of getting a solid season from another goalie. On top of that, there is a layer of complexity in terms of cost/reward with Darling being under contract for three more years. If the right decision personnel-wise is to move on, there is still the cost in terms of eating salary and/or giving up something to move him or possibly even the need to just buy him out.

So netting it out, the right question to ask is whether the odds of a solid season in net is more likely from a Darling rebound or a complete reset with a new netminder but also considering the cost of each option.

And you only get one try

The other challenge is the importance of the starting goalie role and the difficulty of changing course mid-season. When a forward struggles it is MUCH easier to just try again. A team has 12 forwards that play regularly, so it is easy enough to just cut ice time or role a bit and slot him farther down the lineup. An underperforming forward can still be useful in a lesser role, and a team has multiple other options already on the roster to back fill a hole left by an underperformer. But at goalie, a team has only two players at the NHL level. At least one of those players must be capable at the NHL level. And as Canes fans know all too well, if one of them is not capable, it makes for a nearly impossible Achilles’ heel to overcome. What’s more, a team must get this right over the offseason. More often than not, the only goalies available during the first half of the season is another underperforming goalie and therefore a dice roll.

More direct to the Hurricanes situation, if the Hurricanes decide to bet on a Scott Darling rebound, they very much could be betting the 2018-18 season and playoff hopes on that rebound. If Darling is retained and does not rebound, that has the potential to decide the fate of the 2018-19 season.

That article discussed the pros and cons of bringing Cam Ward back as the backup goalie for the 2018-19 season. The key starting point is the fact that Ward is 19-11-4. If you project that over the 68 games played thus far, the pace nets 84 points. Those 84 points would have the Hurricanes sitting atop the Metropolitan Division standings. Let me say that again – Cam Ward’s record thus far for 2017-18 projects to a division-leading pace. Ward’s underlying numbers are not scintillating at .907 for save percentage and 2.70 for goals against average, but if simply grading him as a backup who needs to be only competent, he easily rates well for doing that job in 2017-18.

If one evaluates Cam Ward in a vacuum as a backup goalie for 2017-18, I do not see any way that he would not rate favorably and be a priority to re-sign.

But Ward’s consideration as a backup is NOT standalone

But Ward’s role is not a standalone thing. Ward’s role instead must fit into the broader goalie situation for the team.

Could Cam Ward be the starter at least until/unless Darling regains his game?

In a word, no. At 34 years old, I do not see Ward as a viable all-season starter. He has proven in 2017-18 that he can still step into that role for a stretch which is valuable to spell an injured starter or fill in during an injury, but my read is that he is past the point in his career when he can do this for 55-60 games. In fact, his statistical splits suggest that the backup role might be perfect for him at this stage of his career. With 3 or more days rest between starts, Ward is 11-3-2 with a .915 save percentage. With fewer than 3 days rest, Ward is 8-8-2 with an .898 save percentage.

More succinctly, at this stage of his career I think Ward is a great fit for a backup but not likely capable of excelling in a regular starting role.

The mismatched puzzle pieces and a puzzle that does not fit both

When I consider Scott Darling as a rebound candidate and Cam Ward as an excellent backup option but likely not more than that, I think the two goalies do not fit in the same tandem for 2018-19.

Scenario 1: Give Scott Darling at least one more year to rebound

Especially because of the $12 million contractual commitment, I think one could make a case for giving Scott Darling a chance to rebound after a summer off and a chance to reset for a fresh start.

But in such a scenario, I think an absolute requirement is having another goalie in the mix who is also capable of rising up and becoming the #1 if Darling falters again. For me, a plan that includes trying Darling again without a plan B in tow is a high-risk dice roll on the 2018-19 season. I think if the team goes with Darling, it must also have another goalie in place who also has the potential to be a 55-60-game #1. Per my comments above, I do not think Ward is that guy.

Scenario 2: Cut your losses and move on with Ward as a backup and a new starter

While I do not like Ward as a #2 behind a risky Darling, I do like him as a backup behind a higher-probability #1. That suggests cutting losses on Darling, moving him one way or another and then adding a new #1.

I am already on record as thinking it could make a ton of sense to eat losses and return Scott Darling to the Blackhawks:

You heard it here first…Scott Darling goes back to #Blackhawks this summer with #Canes retaining maximum 1/2 of salary. With Crawford situation, Hawks need another option, $2M salary works & it is where rebound seems most plausible. #Canes

I really think that the risk of Scott Darling combined with the limitations of Cam Ward at this stage of his career really make for an either or decision.

As I said previously, the irony of the situation is that Cam Ward survived multiple years of not living up to expectations largely because of his big contract. He then somehow managed to survive again when he signed a new two-year deal coming off a sub-par season. The situation with Scott Darling, the fact that Ward’s contract expires this summer and the fact that the decision makers this summer do not have long-term ties to Ward actually has the potential to trigger Ward’s departure ironically after a season in which he excelled in his role.

What about Alex Nedeljkovic?

With Alex Nedeljkovic winning in front of a high-powered Charlotte Checkers team, more people are thinking that he could be part of the mix for the 2018-19 season.

There is always the potential for a young player to be thrust into a role and just seize the opportunity. With Nedeljkovic’s history in big games, I think that is an interesting possibility for Nedeljkovic. As such, I do hope the team gives him a few games if an injury creates a logical opening in 2018-19 to see what happens.

But that said, in terms of measuring his progression or readiness based on his track record, the start of the 2018-19 season is premature. Nedeljkovic struggled in his transition to the professional level in 2016-17. While he has been better in 2017-18, the people I talk to who track the Checkers closely suggest that while he is better, the real story is the team in front of him. The Checkers are near the top of the AHL in scoring and are winning with offense. Nedeljkovic’s 27-11-2 record is impressive, but even with a recent shutout streak, his save percentage checks in at a modest .904.

So getting to the point, I like Alex Nedeljkovic’s potential to be a pleasant surprise in 2018-19 if he finds his way into the net in Raleigh because of an injury. But he is not at a stage of development where he is legitimately part of an offseason plan to man the nets at the NHL level in 2018-19.

So if the Hurricanes do look externally, who is available?

One big question is who might be available this summer if the Hurricanes do decide to look externally.

The list of available goalies is not a big one, but the positive is that the number of shoppers should also be small. The Hurricanes were literally the only loser in game of goalie musical chairs this summer. Dallas adding Ben Bishop, Las Vegas netting Marc-Andre Fleury, Calgary landing Mike Smith and Arizona getting Antti Raanta are all set after their work last summer. The emergence of Connor Hellebuyck in Winnipeg also takes another team off the shopper list.

As such, the teams likely to be shopping for a new goalie this summer is likely only to include bottom-feeders from the 2017-18. Buffalo and Arizona are scheduled to see Raanta and Lehner respectively become free agents. The New York Islanders also had issues in net in 2017-18. That sets up what could be a fairly small game of musical chairs this summer.

The options via free agency as I see it are Robin Lehner, Antti Raanta (if not re-signed by Arizona) and Petr Mrazek. I will save detailed evaluations for another day, but worth noting is that that Lehner and Raanta differ from Lack and Darling in that they have experience in an NHL starting role. Mrazek does to a certain degree too though his was more of a split with Jimmy Howard in Detroit.

Next verse same as the first

With a new general manager, the Carolina Hurricanes will again enter the summer coming off of a sub-par season goaltending-wise that might well have cost the team a playoff berth. The situation will again be complex and the stakes high for building a winner for the 2018-19 season.

What say you Caniacs?

1) Are you inclined to ride Scott Darling down the stretch and then also hope for a rebound in 2018-19? Or are you inclined to somehow cut losses and move on?

2) Do you agree that Scott Darling and Cam Ward are unworkable together? If so, how do you resolve that situation?

3) More generally, what would you do at the goalie position over the offseason if you were the Hurricanes new general manager?

Go Canes!

27 Comments

fogger794
on March 12, 2018 at 12:40 am

1. Absolutely. If you’re even slightly thinking that Scott Darling isn’t your goalie, you ride him give him the chance to prove you wrong and tank if he doesn’t.

2. I absolutely 100% disagree with you on this. If Darling can settle in, especially over the offseason, get his mind right, I think it is entirely plausible, he can become the 1 (or a 1A, don’t forget this distinction) while Cam is the 2(1B).
I get it. No one is comfortable going into next season with Scott, Cam and Ned. At the same time, no one better is really available (will elaborate later). To reinforce the situation, you bring in an veteran goalie with NHL experience to supplement the young goalies in Charlotte (Calvin Pickard?). Then you have a Plan A,B,C & D goalie wise to evaluate during camp. If, at say November/December none of those options are proving tenable, the the Tom Dundon Break Glass in Case of Decade W/o Playoffs button is to make an early trade with our stockpile for a better goalie option.

3) The main point of my argument is, if you look at the last 4-5 years on these options available (Lehner, Hutton, Mrazek etc.), none of them have ever put forth season-to-season consistency. We have no idea what kind of goalie we’ll be getting next season. Every one of Khudobin, Lack and Darling were on their A game the season or two before they game to us. Then they got here and imploded.
Now, if our fan base wants to continue this revolving door of goalies based on the strategy of ‘We haven’t seen that goalie screw up in a Canes uniform yet’, then they are entitled to that opinion. Im not in on that. I hope whoever Tom Dundon gets to replace Ron (RIP #TrustTheProcess) works with what we have (with appropriate veteran AHL supplement not named Jeremy Smith) and not continue the revolving door which I really feel is the true problem. Goalies are head cases and if theyre always on pins and needles about being on the way out because they’re playing bad, that creates a seemingly toxic atmosphere for quality goalie play.

We have currently have three relatively viable (though shaky) options to form our 2018-19 goalie monster. If we bring in the fourth (Pickard, Hutchinson, Zatkoff) to supplement the monster and if the monster flops in the first 2-3 months of next year, we’ll have plenty of options we could conceivably trade for. (Korpisalo, Grubauer, Subban, Halak or even maybe a Craig Anderson or a Lundqvist). I think if Scott Darling can use the off season to really settle in and get comfortable here, he has the capability to render this whole conversation moot.
I agree the conversation over the last week’s has been fantastic. Here’s hoping my Five Step Goalie Plan/Rant can prove a viable option as well. I submit it as a counter proposal, though Matt you laid out the goalie situation pretty darn plainly. Kudos as always sir.

I think riding Darling down the stretchis a no brainer.
He is paid to be our #1 goalie, let him take responsibility for that job with reduced pressure and see if he can at least find his A-game.

Worst case scenario – we have a larger sample where Darling has not performed.
Best case scenario – he starts to find his game and becomes at least a tad more tradable.

Ward is the guy we can replace. There are no commitments, other than centimental ones and the fact he was a good backup goalie this year.

The question becomes at least partly that of salary.

If he wants 3 million, that is an awful lot for a backup goalie, and one of the two free agent options can probably be signed for 3.5 to 4.5 mill, in which case we have a potential starter working with Darling at a total cost of 8 million for the position (I think that’s less than Mtl will pay Price).
If Ward resigns for 1.5 mill we have 5.5 mill committed to a tandem that failed us this year, but some financial flexibility.

If Ward resigns, we could also trade Scotty back to the Blackhawks and eat half his salary we have 3.5 million committed to a backup goalie plus bad contract which gives us the same amount, 4 to 4.5 mill, to sign one of the free agent options as a starter.

If Ward wants 3 million, I think that’s just too much for a backup goalie.

I think, by virtue of having done very well financially with the Canes for a long time, that Ward is in a position to give a generous hometown discount to retire with the team that drafted him and also increasing the chances of retiring with a strrong team, even another playoff run.

I think the new manager needs to start by having salary conversations with Ward to see how the numbers work.

I saw an encouraging tidbit about Ned’s style of play in one of the Checkers recaps. His puck handling is one of his primary strengths. That fits well with the Canes system and is probably the single most difficult adjustment for Darling.
Hopefully Ned can round out other aspects of his game and be given a series of looks next year.

I would prefer to trade him and find a true #1 goalie. It is by far our biggest weakness. (yes even over goal scoring) However not sure what is out there right now.
Ward is a perfect backup. Great team guy.
Darling should play the bulk of remaining schedule. Lets see how he does. That could change everything.

2018-19 should be a “clean slate” with the goalkeepers. Thank Cam for his service and maybe keep him on to work with the young goalies in the system. Buy out or trade Darling even if you retain salary. I would then call up Ned and sign a free agent short-term (or trade for one) who has a more established history of solid play (a Craig Anderson, Brian Elliott type who can mentor young Ned).

1/ I’ve been an advocate of riding Darling for a while now. Hopefully, that starts tonight in NY.

2/ By definition, a #1B or a #2 is only capable of playing 25-35 games or taking over a heavier workload while the #1 is recovering from an injury. If he is required to do more than that, then you have to expect a drop off in performance. There is no team in the league – not one – that can survive a season if their #1 goalie fails them or goes down to injury. Cam Ward was very good in his role this year and I don’t think we’ll find anyone better for the price. If he is needed to play more than 35 games, we’d enter hope-and-pray mode, which is where we’d be no matter who the backup was.

3/ So do you give Darling another shot? I do, yes. Our defense needs our goalie to be a good puck-handler and that was his primary weakness and something that he did not need to do in CHI; I believe that made it much harder for the defense to play well in front of him. If you watch him now and compare his play to the first games of the season, his puck-handling has improved and I’m sure he’s going to continue to work on it over the Summer. BTW, I’m not saying that’s his only issue, but with coaching and more work, his other technical issues can also be improved and/or corrected.

None of the UFA’s that are going to wind up on the open market seem any less risky; maybe they’ll be better than Darling but maybe they won’t be, and I doubt they’ll be any less expensive. I’ve heard that Carey Price might be shopped so it’s possible other bigger names become available, but those kinds of deals have all sorts of other risks. And how do you think we’ll all feel if that new guy we go get doesn’t work out? I think we’d feel even worse than we do now.

The downward spiral started when he let in that crazy lob sent in by Mika Zibanejad. I think that got in his head and he wasn’t the same player for a few months. Give him a summer to shake that off fully and he’ll come back as motivated as ever. He’s not the perfect option, but he doesn’t seem as bad an option to me compared to all the other alternatives.

You use Darling as your No. 1 down the stretch. Unless a grade A goalie becomes available in the off season (I don’t see this happening), you go into next year with Darling as your No. 1 if you are basing your decision on what I know. Important to making any decision here would be input from the goalie coach and the rest of the coaching staff. Do they see him as a viable No. 1. If not, the decision is made and you must find a replacement. Was this season’s results due to Darling entirely, or was part of the problem the obvious (to me) regression of our team defense overall. I would like to know data like how many more goals were scored against us while we shorthanded this year compared to the prior year since our penalty kill fell this year from being one of the best in the NHL to one of the worst. How many grade A chances did we allow this year compared to last year. These are all statistics that Dundon with his emphasis on analytics will have. Until I dig them out myself (or you do Matt) I’m against even talking about dumping a goalie (or any other player) and further degrading his confidence especially since I don’t even have a viable No. 1 to replace him with. I caution against degrading a player without really studying the situation in detail. Lundqvist, Price, Bobrovsky, Murray, Holtby, etc. have been grade A No. 1 in prior years. They all had bad years statistically this year in comparison to their prior years performances. Holtby has allowed over 3 goals per game for example. Do you hear Washington trying to dump or unload him? No. The reason probably being first they know the tea in front of him is not as good defensively s in the past and second there is no viable alternative out there. Exactly the same boat we are in.

The last time I suggested running a key player out of town was a dude named Eric Staal. I now have the distinct honor of going to NHL.com every morning and read about his latest scoring accomplishment (I believe he’s at 38 goals right now). This alone makes me cautious about repeating such an error because right now that big number 12 sure would look good in a red jersey as my top line scoring center. The mistake here might not have been trading Eric, but being not having a replacement for him. Darling’s situation looks the same to me.

In the end, Matt, I have to disagree with the second sentence of your statement that “In terms of assessing Scott Darling’s 2017-18 season thus far, it just has not been good enough. The basic statistics say so. The more advanced statistics say so. The eye test says so. ”

As I have watched this season unfold I have become increasingly convinced that a significant reason for our apparent issues in goal is poor play (i.e., loose play) in the neutral and defensive zones that leads to “very high” danger shots on goal – the proverbial “hanging our goalies out to dry”, at a rate that is much higher than for many teams.

That is my “eye test” and it would explain standard stats (GAA and Save%) as being sub-par.

In a recent discussion I had here with virtus he offered standard fancy stats as supporting his/your contention. But I think the use of ordinal strata in assessing goalie performance may actually mask the actual issues.

Rather ordinal strata (low-, medium-, high-danger) a distribution wihtin each strata (i.e., within medium-danger, is a goalie facing more shots in the 10-12% range or the 16-19% range? – huge difference in apparent performance measure by standard stats).

Our fancy stats friend, like virtus and ct, may be able to point me to another stat – the distribution shots by danger level (or a real statistical distribution from 0-100% that a team allows. That stat would be a true indicator of the play in front of the net.

On that basis I am not ready to give up on Darling and I am not at all ready to ascribe his negative stats to how the team plays differently in front of him than it does in front of Cam. He has had a crisis in confidence but his performance in his past two games has been excellent. His technical issues (weak upper glove and five-hole) are actually related – how/when he commits to an imminent shot. Does he make himself “small” to cover his five hole? and give up high glove side? Or the reverse? That’s technical, tied to confidence, as Tripp has brought up recently and in the past.

I just want to see real information/data to support/negate my interpretation of eye-test and standard stats.

CSA quatifies low, medium and high risk shots. Tracks every single one in the NHL and looks at goalies based upon how well they do versus the other goalies in the league. This stat says Darling has given up more than 12 goals than he should have. Worst in the league.

Couldn’t a Scenario #3 exist that says keep Darling as the backup due to sunk cost, cut Ward loose because he is not a starter, and find another starter or 1A goalie to share time with Darling if he recovers his form?

I must say to Raleightj, “Yeah, man! What you said!” I am not a fan of the “new NHL’s” statistical analysis. That is not because I don’t understand it. Perhaps it is because I understand it too well. The unanswered questions about all of this are critical. Who collects the data, and how is it collected? Who defines such things as winning a face-off, low-, medium-, and high danger, etc. Until such questions are answered and the answers are standardized, how can we adequately evaluate players and teams using statistical analysis? And if we don’t ask these questions and insist on the answers, what does that say about us? Like Raleightj, “I want to see real information/data to support/negate my interpretation of eye-test and standard stats.”

We must remember that a goalie is nothing more and nothing less than a part of the team. The big difference with a goalie is that when the five skaters in front of him either make mistakes or are not up to the job, the goalie eats it. Sometimes the goalie stands on his head and makes the save, and sometimes he doesn’t. When he makes the save, he is cheered. But the cheer is forgotten when he doesn’t. And when he doesn’t make the save, it is not forgotten.

I would like to see stats on the following:

1) The number of goals allowed by Scott Darling when confronted by an elite scorer who has an easy shot from a good angle inside of 20 feet unmolested by a defender or back-checking forward.
2) The number of goals scored on Scott Darling which were directly assisted by Haydn Fleury or Noah Hannifin. That’s right. Read this again and understand what I am asking here.

3) The stats on Scott Darling’s performance when Klas Dahlbeck is in the game instead of Haydn Fleury.

How many times in his career has Cam Ward broken his stick against the net in frustration at being victimized by the poor play in front of him? Aside from 3 times in the past two seasons, I don’t know of any.

Maybe we should take all things into consideration before we evaluate our goalkeepers.

Every advanced statistics site has its own methods and many of them are proprietary. I know of the methods at one group and they have people watch every single NHL game and track shots. Is it perfect? No. Is it way better than what happens at NHL rinks? Oh, yes. The differences in SOG can be significant. At some rinks shots off the net stopped by goalies are often considered SOG. While I get that you don’t know who is compiling these statistics, you should have little faith in the standard statistics spit out by NHL teams/rinks.

Here are some more things to consider while we are carving Scott Darling’s epitaph in the gravestone of his career as a Cane.

Let us consider one Andy Moog. He was a goalkeeper for the Edmonton Oilers during their glory years. They selected him in the draft at 137 overall. He shared net tending duties with Grant Fuhr. Both keepers went on to other teams before their careers were ended. Neither man ever had a save average of above .900 for the entire time they played for the Oilers. Neither had a goals-against average of below 3.00 during that time either.

Yet, each was considered to be the keeper the Oilers wanted to keep.

Moog didn’t make it to the Hall of Fame, but Fuhr did.

Moog finished his career with a Goals-against average of 3.13. His save % was .892.

Yet Moog was a four time All-Star. In 1989-90 season (while playing for the Bruins) Moog won the William M. Jennings trophy along with net partner Reggie Lemelin for fewest goals against the team during the regular season. In his career, he was the second-fastest ever to reach the 300 win mark, doing so in 543 games (Jacques Plante did it in 526).

Looking strictly at the stats, nobody would want him.

Fuhr was suspended by the NHL for his cocaine use. But he recovered and went on to a Hall of Fame career.

Did you know that Scott Darling had stats that looked pretty good when he played with the Blackhawks? I was impressed to read that he holds 2 NHL records for his play in the Stanley Cup playoff finals in 2015. One record is the longest shutout in relief (after Crawford was injured) 67:44 minutes. The other is the most saves in relief; 42.

And, of course that means he is experienced at playing under the most extreme pressure (relief in the Stanley Cup finals). And, he wears the coveted ring.

Put a team in front of him, and he will succeed. He has nothing to prove to anyone, as far as I am concerned.

Darling said in an interview that he has faced life crises before using words of encouragement from his father. “Keep cutting the wood that’s in front of you.”

I think powerless is on to something. At this point I don’t think the goalies are the problem.

As far as fancy stats, I haven’t looked lately. But before the season my favorite analyst Micah McCurdy created a graph that showed how goalies “really” performed in 16-17. Both Ward and Lack were above average. My guess is the same would be true for Ward this season.

Taken holistically, the PK has been poor, the D-men goal-scoring is significantly below league average, and as tj points out the D has not been passing the eye test. The young d corp is presumably the strength of the current Canes, but apparently they are not playing up to their talent. It might be coaching–not sure if it Steve Smith or BP. But at this point I am pretty sure the goalies are not the major problem. I plead guilty as I thought it was Marceaux last season, but it is more likely the lack of support (both stopping shots and scoring to win games) from our D.

On another point, Matt mentions leadership in the preview of tonight’s game. And many commenters have argued that the co-captains have been part of the reason for underperformance this year. So a single captain is responsible for success if I am following the argument. Yet, most Canes’ fans also think Tavares would be a great offseason acquisition. That doesn’t follow logically. Matt had Carolina, NYI, and Columbus as 33% competitors for the last wild car spot several weeks ago. The only team that has performed worse than the team with co-captains is the team with Tavares as sole captain. I bring this up because it appears we all (I clearly include myself) are making multiple arguments about what is wrong and what could fix it when the arguments often contradict each other. Short of having two top-5 picks in the lineup (Crosby and Malkin; Stamkos and Hedman; Ovechkin and Backstrom; Wheeler and Laine; Matthews and Marner; Ekblad and Barkov) there appears to be no elixir for NHL success. Or am I missing something?

We have two top-5 picks in the lineup with Lindy and Hanifin, but I digress. 🙂 Certainly not in the same league as those guys, at least not yet. But that’s an aside.

Regarding the singular captain theory, I think our co-captains are more so introverts and shy away from the hard conversations. Nobody is there to know for certain, but to me they always seem uncomfortable. I do think introverted captains can be successful under the right environments. Ron Francis and Joe Sakic are classic examples of introverted captains who worked well with veteran teams (or at least teams who have players with good habits). A growing team with young players such as the ‘Canes are prone to inconsistencies, bad habits and need constant morphing. This is where having an extroverted captain would have benefited by keeping the clubhouse tone straight, delivering the tough love and setting the bar of expectation by holding everyone accountable. Staal and Faulk are just not those types, which is why many may feel they simply cannot lead this team in the way it needs.

In the end, we did not meet and/or exceed expectations on either side of the ice. We drove possession but lacked pure scorers (again), our defense somehow had a sophomore slump occur a year later (in their 3rd year), and as a result I don’t believe any goalie would thrive under these circumstances.

We can’t forget that Darling let in a number of goals he really really should have had.
I’m not an NHL goalie and I can only go by the eye test and the commentators, but it seems clear to me that Darling has let in an average of one goal per game in that he shouldn’t have, and on a low scoring team like the canes those are the types of deflating goals that decide the outcome of the game.
I agree, we can’t blame it all on dsrling, but we also can’t hold him blameless and pretend he’s been a good goalie this season, he most certainly has not been good enough.
But looking at it this way, there is a better chance for a Darling rebound if the Canes can clean up some of the mess in front of him or provide more scoring, possibly both.

The Islanders problem could simply be that Johnny T is not a good captain. Good players do not automatically make good captains. WE need look no further than our own Eric staal I think.
Maybe the Islanders should hand the c to someone else and let JT do what he’s best at, being a first line center and score goals.

Justin Williams has all the attribute of a great captain and I think (and he thought as well) that he was brought in to be the captain of a growing team on the rise. Give him the C over the summer.

1. Riding Darling down the stretch will likely not tell us more than we already know. He’s had several chances this season and failed every time to grab the #1 role. He absolutely needs to be dealt in the off-season if a reasonable deal can be made; if not then we hold onto him and he gets another chance to make the team. What kind of message does that send throughout the organization when a player gets a long-term contract, fails miserably, and then is “given” a roster spot next year? If we still have Darling next training camp, then he should be on equal terms with Ned and may the better goalie win the job. Assuming we still have Darling next training camp and he loses out to Ned, then we put him on waivers, send him to Charlotte to work on his game and consider him as depth. The days of ACCOUNTABILITY are now here and players will have to earn their positions. Darling will be 30 years old next year and has all of 50 NHL wins! If we are able to move Darling in the off-season, then we can sign another veteran goalie (Lehtonen?) that has already proven he can be a starter or at least split duties. That’s a relatively safe play.

2. I think it’s nonsense to believe that Ward and Darling can’t work together. These guys are pros and get paid very well. However, it is possible that Darling felt awkward and uncomfortable unseating Ward from the beginning since he was getting paid more than Ward, and yet had won 250 fewer NHL games and hadn’t won a Conn Smythe trophy.

3. Ward needs to be re-signed. He has earned the right to retire as a Cane. BTW, Ward has more wins this year than any other UFA goalie out there. He should not be expected to take a home-town discount, but instead should be paid fair market value. He is under-appreciated here by many, and at 34 still has gas in the tank. Lundqvist, Anderson, Luongo, Miller, M.Smith, Rinne are all older than Ward yet still remain quality goalies.

Do remember that these are not interchangeable sports robots. These are people, subject to the same highs and lows, mistakes and inconsistencies, and emotions as the rest of us. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS DOES NOT MAKE A PERSON A ROBOT. You can’t insert stats in there, and be like ‘this is what I should get’
It comes down to building the right environment so the goalie is comfortable. No matter who it is. If Carey Price was here and was miserable, he wouldn’t be playing like Carey Price. Build the environment and you build goalie success, build a pressure cooker of an atmosphere, and then i just have to suffer the goalie complaints for another decade. There may be the magic goalie that was tailor-made for our environment, it is true. But in the absence of such an option, the best we can do is try and build the best atmosphere for those that we have.
And then trade for Anderson if all goes to hell. Which it still hasn’t. Hell is what happens when we mortgage our future for one measly playoff run.

I don’t get where finding a starting goalie who works is for one measly playoff run. It is for EVERY playoff run. If nothing else is becoming increasingly clear, it should be that sub-par goaltending is not something that this team can overcome. Elite is not required, but I increasingly believe that league average is absolutely necessary with possibly no other substitute.

I agree Matt. The question is, and still is, is this a question of organizational issue, or have we just picked blatantly the wrong goalie every time. Would each of the goalies that we did not choose, perform at that same level were they in Carolina?
Probably someone would, but I legitimately think Scott Darling on his A game, would be comparable to Raanta, and definitely better than a Mrazek or a Hutton. At this point, change for the sake of change seems harmful. If we can pull off the Anderson or the Lundqvist trade, I can live with that.
Continuing this revolving door of goalies that we try, they fail, and we just don’t give them a second chance…well it’s not the worst strategy, but it hasn’t worked in four years. Give Darling a whole summer. Bring in a less pricey vet. Unless you pull off a crazy trade, there are no better starting options available. Statistically speaking.
My point is not finding a starting goalie works for one measly playoff run. My point is that its a lot easier said than done, there are no options this year, so a far better and cheaper option is to give Scott a summer to see if he can find his feet, before paying out the butt for another one. I’ll just be blunt. I think the concept of shipping out Darling to bring in Mrazek is silly. I’m biased against Mrazek. Raanta makes sense, it’s just pricey. There is no option that magically gives us a starting goalie. But we can still potentially build one.

Fogger. I am closer to your position that Matt’s. In fact, I am pretty sure that “subpar goaltending is not something this team can overcome” is not accurate. I mentioned Micah McCurdy’s analysis above, there was another analysis last year (it is either no longer available or internet searches don’t link to it) that came to the same conclusion. That is that Ward and Lack were average or slightly above. Neither analyst would have any reason to reach these conclusions–just following the data they chose.

Saying the goaltending is a problem would appear to be obvious. But if you think about the last four years, then to Fogger’s point, you have to argue that every goalie who was better prior to Raleigh–and for Khudobin significantly better this year and has much better career averages–was really below average and their true self was what Carolina got. At this point, the argument that the problem is organizational is much closer to Occam’s Razor.

I am coming more and more to believe that our D is the problem. If your blue liners are not a threat to produce a goal, or at least an assist, then the wingers are able to be more aggressive and “cheat” (Eric Staal did this in both games this year). Which creates more odd-man rushes, which puts more pressure on the D and ultimately the goalies. As I think about it, the old adage that that best defense is a good offense has not applied to Canes’ D-men in the last few years. Another thing about the current system is the D-to-D passes, from watching Canes’ games they make many more than opposing teams. It apparently is part of the system. Other teams seem much more willing to make quick passes to forwards near center ice. I don’t know for sure if this is part of the goalie issue, but it doesn’t seem to be helping.

If Carolina can get improved production from Hanifin, Pesce, Faulk, and Slavin, then Darling and Ward are likely to be average or better. Without the D keeping the opposing forwards honest, the team can bring in another goalie who might well fail.

Matt–I will freely admit that Darling had several games where he let in bad goals–one or two extremely bad goals. In turn, he appears to have lost confidence and the team has lost some in him. But that doesn’t explain the other three goalies’ performance nor the lack or scoring.

Solving the “goalie problem” may only happen when the team solves the D shortcomings.

Give Ned the keys, tell him he’s your guy but that we’ll be rotating the other goalie 55/45 or somewhere around there in the event he gets cold. Instead of looking for a known, why not have an unknown that becomes our very own? I don’t care what the AHL save percentage stats say, he’s winning hockey games at a decent clip. The team in front of him is playing hard and he certainly helps play the puck. Maybe he brings the right kind of goalie play that helps make the team fun again? Maybe if the team is fun, they gain confidence and play more to their potential. Add new veteran leadership, some other pieces, and a young goalie whose grown from within and played in big international games. I’d be okay with that setup.

Well, Darling proved again tonight why he is not the answer for the Canes. Whatever defensive shortcomings he had at least two absolute whoopsie goals plus 2 that ended up not being goals, while the opposin netminder, signed undrafted college kid, played like the hero.

If the problem is not the goalie but the defense or the system, then fire the coach (or coaches), the system they’ve implemented doesn’t work, and the system is the responsibility of the coach.
I agree, let’s put some faith in our prospects. How could they possibly perform much worse than our current tandem, and we can use the money on their ELCs to fix defensive gaps or improve the scoring.
Look at how the RAnger, Boston, Pit, Vegas have all gone through a number of goalies and done great with them, while we stick to the same old formula that doesn’t work.

We can shift the blame around endlessly and it is hard to pintoint the issue, hockey is complex, but I think it is absolutely obvious that some changes are needed and continuing with same players, same goalies, same coaches is going to yield the same results.

For now I am satisfied. I think the Canes should aim to lose every single game down the stretch, then try to work some magic at the draft, fix some issues and try again.

I am writing this before reading others comments and being biased by that. I am sure there will be strong difference in what people feel. For me, Darling is done. He did not have a bad season, he had a season which is horrible and he should not be in the NHL.

To me, it is get the best goalie we can and I am fine with Ward being a backup.

Darling has so much baggage at this point that he will have so much pressure to perform that he probably will not be able to. It is way to big of a risk to assume he magically heals himself next year. I cannot see Dundon going for that. He wants to put a winner in the ice and Darling is clearly not part of that plan. I cannot see him taking the risk of another season down the tubes because of Darling. I think we trade him and get what we can or buy him out. I do understand those who say give him another year. Its just an opinion but I am not willing to try that.