Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?

Friday, February 8, 2013

We're Not Boston, But Do We Have a Storm?

While the eyes of most of the nation's weather lovers were on the anticipated monster storm for the Northeast, Minnesota Weather Nation looks toward the southwest to see what may be a notable storm of its own.

We here at TMF have been a bit too busy lately to monitor all the forecasts. Blog viewers are welcome to report the forecasts they hear from the various outlets so there's a collective record of forecaster performance.

63 comments:

Thanks for the new thread Bill,I'm sur it will fill up while your sunbathing in the Sunshine State(your sure no detour to Boston!).Well a newly posted Winter Storm Watch is in effect for late Saturday into Monday,which includes the metro,and not too far behind it is a Blizzard Watch......NWS calling for 6-15 inches of snow within our county warning area.....let the fun and discussion begin boys!

Wow Randy Hill towards the end of the last thread nailed this. Please go back and click on his name. Besides the forecast, it looks like the NWS took his snowfall prediction map (more or less). I also appreciate the mixed technical and laymen termsfor the non-prosseional such as myself. Keep shifting south and east! Bill, what time is that flight?

A much more encouraging forecast this morning for snow lovers. Nice analysis last night, Randy Hill. You and Randyinchamplin seem to be on to something. Keep coaxing that crystal ball. We're not quite there yet. Keep dancing PWL. This is no time to get complacent!

Wow, very quiet on here today. There was an interesting story on the Today Show this morning. They were discussing how the Euro weather model is much more accurate than the GFS model, especially when it comes to predicting big storms. Sven on Kare 11 is calling for an inch in the southeast metro to maybe 4-5 inches in the far northwestern metro this weekend. I hope the storm continues tracking east and south so the metro gets nailed!

was thinking the same thing, i thought the blog was down because there was no chatter, big storm coming and no one has anything to say or are we still waiting until this afternoon for a better gauge on amounts. do we anticipate watches moving south and east at all? i see they just extended the watch area for all of northern MN, but i keep hearing that its shifting more south and east as time goes on.

Instead or additon to grading MN forcasters has there been discussion about grading the performance of the different models at certain intervals(120hr, 96hr, 72hr, etc.) compared to actual tracks of the storms and then publishing those results?

I'm sure that such monitoring is done at NOAA or some other weather-interested organization. Perhaps others know more info? And honestly, as for the original grading of MN forecasters... it's a lot of work and I'm not sure it's worth the time. I've been meaning to post thoughts on that whole concept one day... but have been too busy. Appreciate your suggestion, though! Bill

The thermal profile is slowly getting better and better for snow on the GFS, but things remain stubborn. 00z should have good data to go off of, so I'm really hoping tonights run gets its act together. It is so frustrating when you want a storm to drift further south and east, and the dumb thing barely moves but when you are in a good spot for snow, it trends south and east. I will probably be living on the edge for this one, since the rain/sleet/snow line will probably be within 20 or 30 miles of me. Once all the models actually do line up (hopefully soon), I will post more. Until then, the differences in the thermal profile are too different to make a good prediction. I will say this though...the whole metro may end up seeing more than currently predicted. We will have to watch the dry slot too with the low track being so close. We all know how that can just ruin a forecast.

There's not much chatter because the mixed precip is winning out again over just snow,another slop fest in the making,the Mid-Atlantic Effect is alive and well,maybe all those who went googoo n gaga over Randy Hill's post yesterday can ask him to make another one on our slop,I'm dumdfounded on how most of you can make a prediction one way or another and think you know more then mother nature,mother nature will do what it wants,keep reading the models and charts but in the end she will have the final say!

Making predictions are all part of the challenge. I wouldn't call this the mid-Atlantic effect (in my opinion). Mid-Atlantic effect would turn it over to all rain - not slop. I would just call this a storm track resulting in mixed precip. And someone in the CWA still could see 12". I'm happy with the 7"+ we've had over the last week. Just hoping most of it doesn't get washed away.

Doesn't Paul Douglas run WeatherNation?! Look at their latest post! https://www.facebook.com/WeatherNation Calling for 12.7 in Rochester and 16 in MSP! What an irresponsible joke! Seriously!? Later in the comments they responded to some doubts saying "This is just one model and it's through Thursday. Yes, some of the meteorologists here think it might be a little high. The National Weather Service is predicting 3-6 just on Sunday from the first system."

I'm sure those of you wanting snow(like me!)have already read the NWS winter statement update from 8:11pm this evening,in a nutshell they are calling for 4-8 inches of snow thru the metro,starting as mix overnight Saturday and transitioning to all snow late Sunday and continuing into Monday morning,they do state that uncertainities remain that COULD change the current forecast.....stay tuned,but as I always say with snow nearby anything is possible(like very little mix and more snow or the other way around)just be thankful we have a storm to montior,that has potential for heavy snow.

I'm telling you, if the P.O.S. American models shift this thing south at the last second, I'm going to be pissed and so will a lot of other people. So frustrating.

I see what the NAM & GFS are doing, they are placing a ton of emphasis on the initial surge of warmth and moisture while the Europeans and Canadians are holding back more energy in the mid-level wrap later in the day on Sunday.

For the life of me, I can't figure out how the American models AND several weather outlets continue to predict the heaviest axis of snow over northern MN when the 700mb low passes from Sioux Falls to just south of the MSP metro. What? Meteorology 101 states that the heavy snow axis usually follow along and/or just north of the mid-level low.

With that being said, I would expect to see a mix of stuff early Sunday followed by snow, heavy at times, Sunday evening in the metro as the 700mb low passes by. The axis of heavy snow should be pushed further south than what most people are expecting, including the big boys at the HPC.

Nope...I have been working a lot, and without internet access at work I haven't been able to follow this as closely as I would like, thus I haven't fully looked at the Euro vs GFS solutions at the H850 and 700 levels, but if it shows what you are saying I think it should also help in dynamic cooling. Having said that, the snowfall maps that I have seen so far from the GFS 09/0z run looks more like 8-10" in the nw Metro, possibly even nw Hennepin county. It will be about another 30 minutes or so until I can see a snow fall map with county lines on it.

No major travel problems today [Saturday]; a little freezing drizzle may arrive by tonight. Temperatures aloft will be just warm enough for a rain-snow mix much of Sunday, possibly 1-3 inches of sloppy snow Sunday night.

The weather channel is spitting out 1" of snow through Sunday for this storm in Minneapolis, which they are now calling "Orko". Don't get me started on this. I had to explain to my wife that "Nemo" is just a Weather Channel thing. I just looked up their names for this season. Up next: "Plato" and "Q". Really? They are going to call a storm "Q". At first I didn't mind this, but hopefully this is the first and last year of this. The only good thing is that no one is calling the east coast blizzard the "storm of he century", since we are only 13 years in. Man, I have missed some good nor'easters since moving here 8 years ago.

I learned a few years ago to not trust the NAM at all during the cold season. Tonight I found out why. That model has extremely low vertical resolution, in other other words as systems pass over the Rockies it has no idea what to do with the placement of the surface low. Now for your amusement I present the NAM snowfall map...I dearly hope there are not professional weather outlets riding that model.

yes, but channel 4 and 5 are a little bit more bullish on this one. Don't pay attention to channel 4's weather graphic, listen as to what she has to say. Jonathan over at channel is quite bullish with this

HPC is calling for 1.25" of liquid for MSP????, that has to be a lot of warm sector precip....ie freezing rain or just plain old rain...the 09/0z run of the Euro is showing .66" and the temps at 850mb and the surface show all snow. I can't see the 925mb level until 130am, but based off the 08/12z run I expect it cool enough for all snow....So my initial snow fall forecast for MSP is 6" I won't be able to update that until tomorrow night as I work during the day, and again I don't have internet access. I would suggest following Duane and Novak's forecast.

Looks like we're hosed for the metro. Even ARX, who is usually quite accurate, has changed its graphics from showing the metro in the potentially heavy snow zone to instead a mix and maybe 1-2 inches of snow from this system. They have the northwest metro in a band of 4-7 inches and of course western MN in the bull's eye, just like the models have been saying for days. Let's face it boys, this isn't going to be our storm. I just hope that our current snow cover doesn't get washed away. Sadly, I don't see any real remaining hope of a December miracle replay. We will have to sit on the sidelines and watch New England and western MN's blizzards. So close, but yet so far away. Bummer!!

As of 7:23 this morning, HPC 1-3 day QPF has most of MN at .75 or more. Guys (and gals)...the moisture is there for good snows. Looks like, as been the case ALL season, will be the mid-level temps, dynamic cooling, etc.

@Bill,this is what I was able to pull from the various outlets on our winter storm:weather.com(current) 1-3"accuweather(current) 3-6"wunderground(current) 4"strib(11pm Friday) 1-3"NWS(AM UPDATE) 3-6"se 6-9"nw (graphic from website)KSTP(Friday PM blog Johnathan Yuhas) 1-3 3-6 1-3 Total:5-12"WCCO(10PM News Friday) 6-8"Kare11(10PM News) 1-3"MPR(6AM Craig Edwards)*an whole update on the storm(which is amazing since its the weekend)and not one mention of snow totals,they did put up the NWS graphic,but that is just plain lazy,at least give a prediction like everyone else,were 18hrs from onset of precip and they can't give a prediction.This storm feels like no one really has a grasp of whats going to happen,just by looking at the wide variations above,to me any thing is still possible in the metro,I feel this is going to be one of those storms where when you look out the window one kind of precip is falling and then a half hour later another type will be falling,I'm rooting for snow and some heavy dynamic cooling of the atmosphere.Hope the info helps!Btw....keep dancing PWL!

So, basically they are calling for 1-12 inches. Well that sure narrows it down. We're less than 24 hours from the event and there remains this amount of confusion. Personally, I think the GFS is going to be right and the real show will occur way out in western MN and the eastern Dakotas. I believe that is what the GFS has been predicting all week, isn't it? Go home folks, there's nothing to see here.

Yikes! It's not looking real promising for us folks in the southern metro. I need to start dancing....pronto! PWL, quick, teach me some good moves!! Everybody join in and dance for the entire metro. There is nothing like being on the razor's edge...uugghh

My thinking really hasn't changed a whole lot from Thursday night. The Euro, other than some minor shifts, really hasn't moved a whole lot. Now as the 12z NAM comes out you'll finally see that it has aligned with the Euro from this morning. The surface low should track somewhere close from Norfolk, NE to Algona, IA to Winona, MN, which would still put most of the Twin Cities in line with at least 6" of snow, and more possible in the northern suburbs.

It looks that the majority of our snow in the metro will come from 2-3 very heavy snow bands that will rotate through between 6am - 3pm tomorrow. These will have the potential to be convective, and drop snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour. The only concern I have with precipitation mode will be with the first band of heavy precipitation that moves in tomorrow morning. This could be rain for the southern half of the metro, and would cut back on total snowfall amounts there. Colder air works in after that changing all precipitation over to snow. Overall, the heaviest snows will still fall across eastern SD and far western MN. I still think a foot or more will be possible here. I will have my updated forecast up on my site in a few hours.

@Randy Hill,I sure hope what your suggesting will happen,but I have to ask are you a met,or just a weather enthusiat,did you study meterology in college..........you seem knowledgable in your posts like you should be working at the NWS,you make it sound so simple maybe you should help out the NWS.

If it's not going to snow, then please dry slot us, Mr. Storm. I know it sounds selfish. The metro could use the moisture, but I hate RAIN during the winter so much that I would rather we get the dry slot instead. Frustrated TC Snow Lover.

All forecasts/models have aligned pretty well today. My forecast is up on my webpage. I expect 5-6" at MSP, with slightly less for the SE metro, but more for the NW metro. Although we won't be in the bulls-eye for the heaviest snow, 6" would double the amount we have on the ground now and is definitely better than nothing.

@big daddy I am a met who has a degree in Geography/Atmospheric Science. I work for a power company and forecast for wind farms around the country.

Thank you for info.....keep up the good work,look forward to reading more of your posts.Earlier in the week I told the folks here to relax and wait till Friday for a shift in the models to occur,so that it has a look of heavy snows to our north and west and then the sow shift south begins.....any chance the shift continues and metro gets heavier snows then what is forecasted now.

I haven't looked to see what the surface observations are at this time vs what the models were showing, and that may be a critical error on my part. But based on the 09/12z Euro, the higher 15k resolution of the FIM model suite as of 09/12z and the 09/18z GEM REG model (which by the way was given major upgrade just before the winter season), I am sticking with my 6" at MSP, and in NW Hennepin county more like 8-10" The caveat that I have seen, is that the GEMREG model keeps most of the winter mix south of the metro. AS a matter of fact it stalls this system for about 6 hrs, as the center of the low gets between the metro and Eau Claire. IMO the gem regular was a big winner in the last storm that impacted the ARX county warned area around Madison, and was spot on showing no snow in NW IL, until late. If the 18z run of the GEM is correct we could see a surprise. So my forecast of 6" at MSP and 8 to 10 in NW Hennipen county is above average but not high.