Despite aggressive attempts to convince the public otherwise, new analysis of the vast body of research shows 97% of scientists agree that human activities are fuelling climate change. Tim Radford reports.

Since the governments of 195 nations have, de facto, already accepted this, and collectively vowed at the UN climate conference in Paris last December to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion and contain global warming if possible to a rise of 1.5°C, it might be expected that citizens would need no further convincing. But surveys shows that they do, and particularly in the United States.

“Non-expert opinion and making unsupported assumptions can hugely impact the findings. However, with multiple studies finding consistent high levels of scientific agreement, we are confident the debate can now be put to bed.”

The researchers base their conclusion on seven independent consensus studies already conducted by the co-authors. And it includes one in 2013, in which scientists surveyed more than 11,944 abstracts of scientific papers, and concluded – not for the first time − that most scientists agree that humans are changing the climate in which they so successfully evolved.

"The public has a very skewed idea of how much
disagreement there is in the scientific community."

There has always been healthy and necessary scepticism about any research conclusion, and scientists themselves expect their conclusions to be replicated or proved in error, and their favourite hypotheses to be challenged, repeatedly.

Levels of expertise

In the latest study, the researchers once again concluded that the greater the levels of expertise in climate science among those quizzed, the greater the likelihood of agreement that humans cause climate change.

Sources of possible confusion might include surveys of people who had already made up their minds that it isn’t happening or that it isn’t the fault of humans. It was possible, too, that those quizzed were not themselves experts in climate science — some might be economic geologists, with expertise in coal or oil deposits.

But the outcome, after more than a quarter of a century of scientific consensus on climate change, remains the same: only 12% of people in the U.S. and 15% in Australia are aware that there is strong agreement among climate scientists.

Professor Green says:

“The public has a very skewed idea of how much disagreement there is in the scientific community.”

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