The majority of Britain's public sector workers still believe that they will receive a pay rise next year that will be the same or higher than it was this year, a new survey revealed today.

Despite the government's planned crackdown on salaries, the study of 2,500 workers by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) found that 57% of those in the public sector still think they will get a rise. The chancellor, Alistair Darling, announced a 1% cap on salary increases for the public sector in 2011 in his pre-budget report two weeks ago.

A similar number of private sector workers expect a higher or the same rise as last year. However, half of those questioned suffered a pay freeze this year compared with 17% of the public sector workers surveyed. Some 7% of private sector staff received a pay cut compared with 2% in the public sector.

Charles Cotton, CIPD reward adviser, said: "While most private sector workers predict that they will get a pay rise next year, over one in four do not think that this will be the case. Public sector workers are clearly not sensing that the pay storm clouds are gathering."

CIPD expects another 250,000 jobs to be slashed across Britain next year as employers assess prospects for the economy and decide that they will need to raise productivity and reduce labour costs.

It forecast that the number of people in work will fall by a quarter of a million between the third quarter of 2009 and the second quarter of 2010, with unemployment set to peak at 2.8 million next summer – a marked improvement on the CIPD's previous forecast that unemployment would peak at 3.2 million.

The thinktank also cautioned there will be below-inflation pay increases for most people in work. Dr John Philpott, chief economic adviser to the CIPD, said: "Given the likelihood of a rise in price inflation to at least 3% in 2010 on the RPI measure, our forecast implies a squeeze on real pay next year. This could be difficult to deliver following a recession during which many private sector employees have experienced pay freezes or pay cuts. A slower than expected recovery or stronger earnings growth would threaten to raise peak unemployment to at least 3 million."