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Cheat Sheets: 2010 Starting Pitcher Rankings

Roy Halladay will have to hit now, but that’s sure as hell not why the Phils got him.

By Tim McLeod and RotoRob

There’s a good group at the top end giving owners plenty of options, but don’t feel you have to get one of them because the depth at pitching is probably greater then we’ve seen in several years. There’s plenty to choose from in the middle tier and also a boatload of prospects worth a look.

Previous rankings are in parenthesis.

1. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants (2): This workhorse should be the first pitcher taken in your draft, likely in the third round if recent mocks are any indication. Last year, the diminutive righty cut his already miniscule home run rate en route to a second straight season of at least 15 wins. Despite his small statute, Lincecum can bring the heat, occasionally touching triple digits on the gun. I still worry about the long-term wear and tear on his slight frame, but so far he’s showing no cracks in his game. — RR

2. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies (1): After Halladay was traded by the Jays to Philly in a three-team deal for Kyle Drabek and other prospects, NL hitters are now finding out what the AL has known for years – Halladay is one nasty pitcher to face. Last season he improved his already superb control, but endured his second straight double-digit loss campaign – a streak that should cease now that he’s pitching for a winner. Halladay used to be a fairly extreme groundball pitcher, but for the past four years, he’s been trending towards neutral. It resulted in more homers allowed last season, but a move to the NL should negate that trend with Halladay getting to face opposing hurlers. — RR

3. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (12): Hernandez took one of the biggest leaps of any pitcher on our list from a year ago, and now that’s he’s teamed with Cliff Lee, you’re going to see a lot of hitters get cooled off when they face the Mariners. After a season in which he enjoyed the finest hit rate of his career, cut his homer rate, won more games than ever and lost less than ever (in a full season), King Felix is going off the board at the beginning of the third round. — RR

4. Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals (6): Greinke was the best pitcher in the American League last season, with the only thing missing from his arsenal a nice win total, but you can thank his teammates for that. He was never harder to hit and also chalked up his highest K rate yet. Most impressively, however, is the fact that Greinke’s command just keeps getting better and is now at a truly elite level. He is usually being grabbed off the board right after King Felix. — RR

5. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals (24): Wainwright has become a serious keeper, and is going around the middle of the fifth round this spring as a result. He enjoyed a breakthrough season for the Cardinals, putting up ace-like numbers and entrenching himself as a core player for St. Louis.

6. Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks (7): Haren, who is going around the sixth round this season, is a bit of an enigma. In the past few years, he’s been among the best arms in the game during the first half, but tends to be rather ordinary in the second half. In 2009, the trend continued as his ERA shot up 2.61 runs after the break and he wound up reaching double digits in losses (although much of that is because he was on a crappy D-Back team). Still, Haren recorded his highest K/9 ever and could team with Brandon Webb (whenever he comes back, that is) and newcomer Edwin Jackson to form a fine top three that should help Arizona get back closer to or even reach .500 this year. — RR

7. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (11): This workhorse set new career highs in starts, innings, strikeouts and wins, while recording his lowest ERA ever. Verlander also cut his homer rate, so no wonder the Tigers rewarded him with a big money long-term extension. He’s going around the fifth round in most drafts this spring. — RR

8. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees (3): It’s really not that long ago that Sabathia teamed with Lee to form a brilliant one-two in Cleveland that was responsible for back-to-back Cy Young awards. It just seems like forever ago, given that he’s switched teams twice since then and is now a big enough star to be appearing in EA videos. At any rate, Sabathia is the consummate workhorse. In fact, if you looked up workhorse in the dictionary, you’ll find him right there, appearing slightly larger than an actual horse. — RR

9. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals (21): Carpenter is injury prone, but coming off a great season in 2009. The strikeouts were down, but it’s hard to argue with that 2.24 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Just be wary of the potential for health issues as they never seem to be that far away with Carpenter. — TM

10. Johan Santana, New York Mets (5): Santana’s 2009 season was cut short by surgery to remove bone spurs in his left elbow. It was the first time since 2003 that he had not managed to reach 200 IP. The K/9 rate was a virtual mirror image of 2008, although it has certainly dropped from his heyday in the Twin Cities. The surgery will obviously dampen Fantasy owners’ spirits, but might actually make Santana a bit more realistic buy heading into 2010. A bounce back to his 2008 level, combined with falling interest at the draft table makes for what could be sneaky value entering the 2010 campaign. — TM

11. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox (25): The 26-year-old took a huge step forward in solidifying his place as one of the best lefties in the game in 2009. He improved his strikeouts by a whopping 73 in seven less IP last season. Improvement was anticipated, but 225 strikeouts moves Lester into the top-tier of strikeout pitchers in the game. He has now recorded back-to-back 200+ IP seasons and if he can lower his walk rate even marginally he’s on the cusp of greatness. — TM

12. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants (9): The 25-year-old Cain teams with Lincecum to form a great one-two punch for the Giants. In what has to be pure coincidence, Cain pitched 217 2/3 IP in both 2008 and 2009. The key to his success last season was the 22 fewer hits and 18 less free passes allowed. If he can ramp up his strikeout totals into the 200 range, he has the potential to go from the very good to elite in 2010. — TM

13. Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins (15): Since returning from his 2007 Tommy John surgery, Johnson has been one of the best pitchers in the game. In 2009, he sported a 15-5 won-loss record and, in 209 IP, sported a great 3.23 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, allowed 184 hits and 58 free passes while striking out 191. He recently signed a four-year, $39 million contract extension with the Fish and now that he’s settled in with the Marlins for the long haul expect more of the same great results moving forward. — TM

14. Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies (43): Who would have thought a Colorado starting pitcher would ever attain the lofty heights that the 26-year-old Jimenez has already reached. In 218 IP last year, he managed to post a great 3.47 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and tossed in 198 strikeouts for good measure. If Jimenez can continue to show improvement in limiting the free passes, elite status as a starter could be just around the corner. – TM

15. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (61): There is no doubting that Kershaw possesses the stuff that aces are made of. In 171 IP last season he allowed a miniscule 119 hits while striking out 185. Unfortunately, he still has some work to do on the control aspect of his game, as he allowed 91 free passes. There is no need to explain the low win total when you average 5.7 IP per start. If Kershaw can find a way to pitch deeper into games by cutting down on the walks and pitching to contact, he has the potential to be one of the dominant pitchers in the game. — TM

16. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves (66): Hanson was our No. 13 prospect in 2009, but graduated to the majors last season. And lest you think he was just like any other pitcher, think again. It’s hard to believe Hanson was a rookie last year, given his tremendous hit rates and low homer rate. Another year older this season, you can expect further growth from this fine young arm, who could easily be a top 10 Fantasy pitcher by season’s end. — RR

17. Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox (8): The 29-year-old Beckett can finally put his mind at ease with the recent announcement of a four-year $68 million contract extension. He enjoyed a great spring with 22 strikeouts in 19 1/3 IP and with the contract out of the way will lead a strong Boston rotation back to the World Series in 2010. – TM

18. Wandy Rodriguez, Houston Astros (30): The 31-year-old southpaw finally broke the 200 IP barrier in 2009. Nagging injuries that limited his playing time seem to be a thing of the past. Building on a strong 2008 campaign, Rodriguez struck out 193 with a great 3.02 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Expect more of the same fine results from him this year as he attempts to reach the 200-strikeout plateau. — TM

19. Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox (67): It’s all about health issues for the 28-year-old Peavy. He has struggled through back-to-back seasons dealing with injuries, but appears to be healthy entering 2010. This spring, Peavy has struck out 13 and issued only allowed two free passes in 11 IP, a very positive sign. The White Sox are going to need a return to form from the former Padre ace if they are to chase down Minnesota in the AL Central. — TM

20. Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves (17): There was no sophomore slump in the cards for the 24-year-old righthander in 2009. Jurrjens lowered his ERA by more than a full run in 2009 from 3.68 to a stellar 2.60. Toss in the 14 wins and 152 strikeouts and the Braves have yet another stud pitcher in an already solid rotation. — TM

21. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (16): With John Lackey having departed for Boston, the Halos were left without a true ace, but Weaver comes the closest, and hence he got the nod on Opening Day. He shed over a half-run off his ERA last year and was particularly nasty at home (2.90), but Weaver wasn’t nearly as sharp in the second half, so that’s something to watch this season. — RR

22. Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners (13): The 31-year-old Lee was traded to the Mariners this offseason, and the spacious confines of Safeco Field should be to his liking. In 2009. he enjoyed a solid season, although not quite to the standards he set in 2008. Did anyone truly believe we’d see that phenomenal April 2008 repeated in 2009? Currently Lee is dealing with an abdominal strain which has forced him to the DL to start the 2010 season. Once he’s healthy, look for another solid year out of the veteran southpaw, making him a great option as a solid No. 2 in your Fantasy rotation. — TM

23. Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers (28): We pegged Gallardo as a steal last year and were bang on as he emerged as the ace of a Brewer staff that offered little behind him. He stayed moderately healthy last year, reducing his hit rate, fanning over 200 and recorded an ERA well under 4.00. Small wonder he was the Brewers’ Opening Day starter this season. — RR

24. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies (10): We panned him last season and were bang on as his ERA soared over a run in 2009 and his win total slipped for the second straight season. But everything that made Hamels a bust last year has made him a potential sleeper this year, so depending on where he’s going in your draft, he could be a serious bargain. — RR

25. John Lackey, Boston Red Sox (40): Lackey bolted for Boston in the offseason, a big loss for the Angels. While his ERA has risen two straight seasons and his K/9 has dipped for four years in a row, Lackey’s strong performance against the Yankees over the years is definitely a welcome addition to the Red Sox. — RR

26. James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays (14): We ranked Shields as a top 15 starter a year ago, but he’s not even a top 25 this year after a season in which the long balls became a problem and he was more hittable at any time since he was a rookie. He was still the Rays’ Opening Day starter, but a look at Shields’s second-half numbers (5-6, 5.16) has to concern owners.

27. Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers (4): Billingsley struggled in the second half of 2009 (5.20 ERA, .271 BAA), and questions about whether he should be included in the Dodger playoff rotation proved valid as he pitched out of the bullpen. He’s enjoyed a solid spring, but was rocked in his final start, and that’s the story with Billingsley – he has ace stuff, but kills Fantasy owners with an occasional stinker. — RR

28. Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins (36): Nolasco has risen from 36 in last year’s rankings despite weaker results as his WHIP was up significantly and he missed a bit of time. However, the Fish’s No. 2 starter continues to improve his strikeout rate and if he can stay healthy this year, he’ll likely top 200 Ks for the first time. Nolasco has been going around the sixth round of 5×5 NL-only leagues. — RR

29. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs (41): The No. 2 starter in a deep Cub rotation, Dempster looks poised for another strong year after enjoying a fine spring. This workhorse improved his control last year, but his ERA rose almost three-quarters of a run because of much higher hit rates and a problem with long balls. Still, the Canadian hurler showed the best command of his career last year, so we’re expecting better numbers from him this season. — RR

30. Matt Garza, Tampa Bay Rays (32): Part of the booty that Tampa Bay continues to enjoy from the Delmon Young trade, Garza had a bit of a problem with long balls last year, leading to an increase in his ERA by a quarter run. However, this dude tends to fly under the radar, so he could prove to be a real steal this year given the relatively low cost you’ll spend to get him. — RR

31. Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics (NR): Anderson, a graduate of our 2009 top prospect list, didn’t have a good spring, but after his excellent rookie year, he’s poised to take a major step forward this year. He has tremendous potential as a high strikeout pitcher, and his decent hit and homer rates and fine walk rates should all improve this year. The fact that Anderson never really hit a rookie wall – getting stronger as the season wore on – tells me he could easily be the ace of the A’s staff by the end of 2010 (fi he isn’t already). — RR

32. Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros (33): Oswalt has now started eight straight Opening Day games for the Astros, and while he was hurt for much of Spring Training, he managed a quality outing in his first start. He’s a real workhorse, having made at least 30 starts for six straight years, but Oswalt’s drop in K/9 last year is worth monitoring this season. — RR

33. John Danks, Chicago White Sox (51): Danks wasn’t even among the top 50 pitchers on our list last year, but after setting a career high in innings pitched and reducing his walk rate, he’s cracked the top 40 this time around. Danks should again be part of a strong staff – especially if Peavy is all the way back. — RR

34. Scott Baker, Minnesota Twins (38): Baker, who can be a key component of a solid Fantasy rotation, is considered a top 30 starter by some, but for our money, he’s not quite there. Yes, he put up his first 200-inning season and set a career high in wins last year, but had a problem with home runs. And this control specialist didn’t exactly have sharp command in his first start, getting hit hard. — RR

35. Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado Rockies (85): De La Rosa earned a spot on the coveted NL All Wire Troll Team after setting a career high in innings pitched and taking a big step forward. The homers worry me, but those 9.4 Ks/9 sure are sweet, and it’s reasonable to expect even more this season as he’s coming off the heels of a fantastic spring. – R.R.

36. Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers (69): Scherzer barely made our top 70 last year, but a season after he emerged as a full-time starter, albeit with a bit of a home run issue, he’s now in the top 40. Scherzer justified this move by tossing no-hit ball into the fifth inning in his season debut. — RR

37. Javier Vazquez, New York Yankees (26): While the Braves may desperately miss Vazquez this year, he certainly has incentive to perform well in his second stint in Pinstripes – he’s a pending free agent. Vazquez is coming off a career year in which he cut his homer rate and won 15 games for the third time in his career. As far as Atlanta is concerned, Melky Cabrera better be all that this year or the Braves may regret this deal. — RR

38. Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox (92): After his breakout season in 2008, Floyd backslid somewhat and his ERA was back over 4.00 last year. He did manage to make 30 starts for the second straight year and, while he’s typically a flyball pitcher, Floyd had the best groundball rate of his career, and I’m curious to see if this trend continues this season. Here’s some advice: Floyd makes for a great spot starter during day games (18-5 vs. 18-24 at night for his career). — RR

39. A.J. Burnett, New York Yankees (34): Part of the massive spending spree in the 2008 offseason that helped bag the Yanks another World Series last year, Burnett wasn’t exactly on top of his game in his first season in Pinstripes. His homer rate rose, his Ks dropped and his WHIP was up for a second straight season. Combine that with a poor spring and a shaky first start of 2010, and the Yanks’ No. 3 starter appears to be regressing. — RR

40. Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves (NR): Hudson’s return from TJS late last year gave the Braves an embarrassment of riches on the mound, allowing them to deal Vazquez in the offseason. Hudson didn’t look rusty at all upon his return, striking out more than normal, though he’s never been a big K man. He enjoyed a fantastic spring, and should be a tough match up against almost any opposing hurler this year. – RR

41. Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs (56): The 34-year-old Lilly is coming off a career year in 2009 where he posted a 3.10 ERA and stellar 1.06 WHIP. His ability to limit the free passes last season contributed to his outstanding campaign. Lilly underwent arthroscopic surgery in the offseason and is expected to be ready to go at the end of April. He makes for a solid third/fourth starting pitcher for Fantasy squads in 2010, but temper your expectations as a repeat of 2009 is highly unlikely. — TM

42. Randy Wolf, Milwaukee Brewers (45): Signed to provide a jolt to a flagging Brewer rotation, Wolf’s K rate has dropped the past couple of seasons, but he is coming off the best WHIP of his career. He got the win in his debut, but surrendered a few too many baserunners for my taste. Wolf remains a mid-tier Fantasy starter this season. — RR

43. Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs (29): It’s really not that long ago that the Big Z was a top 10 starter, but he sure has slipped in the last couple of years. We hypothesized about the effect that excessive workload has had on him, and you can read that article for a more in-depth take on Zambrano. Considering how badly he was bitch slapped in his first start of 2010, there’s still something not quite right with him. — RR

44. Jonathan Sanchez, San Francisco Giants (90): The 27-year-old flamethrowing southpaw got out of the gate horribly in 2009, and then came July. He tossed a no-hitter July 10 against the Padres and never looked back. Sanchez was far less hittable last season, allowing only 135 hits in 163 1/3 IP with his always impressive strikeout rates. If he can get a handle on the free pases he has the potential to take the next step up the ladder in 2010. — TM

45. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks (50): Webb had been going in the 10th round and in a recent Podcast we wondered just how big a bargain this was. Apparently, we were right, as after making just one start in 2009 because of shoulder woes, Webb may not return until the second half this year. The D-Backs beefed up their offense this offseason, but perhaps they should have been spending money on pitching depth. — RR

46. Scott Kazmir, Los Angeles Angels (37): Tampa Bay’s pitching depth allowed it to deal Kazmir to the Angels at the deadline to make room for Wade Davis. After getting hammered with the Rays, Kazmir looked like a completely different pitcher over the final month in LA. Overall, it was still the worst full season of his career, but on a promising note, he did improve his control. Kazmir begins 2010 on the DL with a strained hammy, the latest in a long string of health woes for the fragile lefty. — RR

47. Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins (48): Along with most of the Twins’ rotation, Liriano was struggling in August, but for him, those struggles really haven’t stopped as he continues to try to find his way back to pre-Tommy John surgery form. Last season was truly a nightmare for Liriano as his control was so bad that he only managed to win five games while enduring the worst WHIP and ERA of his career. When Joe Nathan went down for the year, Minny considered shifting Liriano into the closer role, but opted to keep him in the rotation, much to his relief. Now is his chance to show us why he deserved to remain a starter. — RR

48. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays (39): Price, a graduate of a our top 40 prospects in 2009, failed to meet the lofty expectations most placed on him during his rookie season. His WHIP was up and his Ks were down, a bad combo. However, Price still managed to bag double-digit wins in less than two dozen starts – nothing to sneeze at. Is he ready to join the new wave of great young pitchers like Hernandez, Greinke and Lincecum? Well, he certainly has the pedigree, so don’t sleep on Price. — RR

49. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox (52): Yes, he had that superb season in 2008, but since coming to North America, Dice-K has struggled not only with wildness, but also with stamina issues and major injury woes. Last season, his injuries caused him to earn consideration as 2009 RotoRob Fantasy Baseball Dud of the Year. He had problems with the long ball and was way too hittable, although his control was a bit better. Matsuzaka has started 2010 in a familiar place – on the DL – and when he’s ready to return, Boston will have to make a rotation adjustment, possibly shifting Tim Wakefield to the bullpen. — RR

50. Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers (54): Another graduate of our top 40 prospects last year, Porcello enjoyed a very strong rookie season and has picked up where he left off, earning the win in Detroit’s home opener. He’s entrenched himself as the No. 2 man in the Tiger rotation and should only get better over time. — RR

We have seen an incredible start to the season out of the Rangers pitching staff, led by Colby Lewis et al. It is also 10 days into the season. I’ve been touting Lewis since he announced his return to MLB back at the beginning of December, but realistically where did you draft this guy in your league draft? Is Harden going to maintain his health, something he hasn’t managed to accomplish to date in his career? C.J. Wilson is pitching great in the rotation, but he’s a converted RP that hasn’t started since little league. Heading into the season, most ranking lists didn’t even have Lewis listed. It’s a long, long season and I wish the Rangers all the best, but I have a hard time believing those early results will be sustainable through the dog days of summer in Texas.

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