Unemployment claims data deteriorate sharply

In the week ending April 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 474,000, an increase of 43,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 431,000. The 4-week moving average was 431,250, an increase of 22,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 409,000.

This represents a significant deterioration in the jobless claims data. The increase was so sharp in the week’s data that I have to imagine it could be a statistical anomaly. Nevertheless, the 4-week moving average has increased markedly since finding a bottom below 400,000 in February. Levels are well off the numbers from one year ago.

Data have been weak all around, not just in the US but globally. Jean-Claude Trichet was less hawkish than anticipated at this morning’s ECB press conference. The data flow may have something to do with this. Tomorrow’s employment situation summary will take on more importance given these numbers.

Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

The UK manufacturing figures released today are just as bad. I think that there is a general slowing down of the economy and in the US stimulus is running out so the support for US employment is petering out. The problem is that most governments have been in extend and pretend mode for four years because they have no idea what to do. If anything they have extended the problems until the end of this decade. Government revenues will be meagre because bank have huge tax losses and so will not be paying taxes for years. It would have been better to allow the banks to collapse and wipe out these tax losses. Then the new banks would be paying taxes sooner.

Anonymous says 8 years ago

The UK manufacturing figures released today are just as bad. I think that there is a general slowing down of the economy and in the US stimulus is running out so the support for US employment is petering out. The problem is that most governments have been in extend and pretend mode for four years because they have no idea what to do. If anything they have extended the problems until the end of this decade. Government revenues will be meagre because bank have huge tax losses and so will not be paying taxes for years. It would have been better to allow the banks to collapse and wipe out these tax losses. Then the new banks would be paying taxes sooner.