Very Simply if you go back and check records (google jschulmansr)I said that GOLD and Precious Metals would be at the current levels they are back when GOLD was still trading around $480/oz. This (Gold’s tremendous rise) has also happened within my predicted time frames also… Hope you have enjoyed the ride with me so far and hang on- much more to come!

Maybe…. Depending on who you are talking to. Today’s rally took me a little bit by surprise, thanks to Japan. The market totally shrugged off Moody’s potential downgrade of Irish Banks and Ireland.

The recently released report of the causes of the “Flash Crash” showed that derivatives actually was one of the major causes of the crash. Well guess what? Right before the collapse of Lehman, and the ensuing crash and crisis; banks were holding all time record levels of derivatives. Currently once again, banks are holding all time record high levels of derivatives!

So today’s rally can be totally attributed to Japan’s central bank. The Japanese Central Bank while slashing interest rates to basically 0%, also announced that they would be buying Japanese assets (Bonds, Reits, Mortgages, Equities), thereby fueling speculation that the Fed would do the same thru QE2 here in the United States.

However, I think it’s about time for a correction in the GLD, SLV, FXE, SPY, UUP.
Looking at the charts this has all of the appearance of an exhaustion gap. Not that I don’t think that we have a real shot a $1500 Spot Gold by the end of this year.

So even though I was stopped out of my GLD puts this morning I am seriously thinking about jumping back in and buying more GLD and SLV puts. I will let you know on stock talks (Seeking Alpha), when I do.

That being said, I don’t think the correction for GLD and SLV will be more than 5-7% before resuming their march to $1500 (Gold) and $25 (Silver). Another note: I expect Silver to perform even better than Gold. The gold/silver ratio is approximately 60/1, if we see a return to what used to be the norm of 30/1 gold/silver ratio; then Silver could potentially run as high as $35-$50/oz.

Finally, as they do another quantitative easing (QE2) here in the US (currently not official QE), this continues to put pressure on Europe and Japan to devalue their currencies and keep the printing presses running. Long term this is going to create a very hyper inflationary climate long term. So being the Gold and Precious Metals Perma Bull that I am, I think that you should be buying and stockpiling (bullion, rounds, coins; as much as you can get; to lock in the value of your money now. Events are truly starting to line up and set the stage for a potential worldwide collapse and depression.

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

I’m pursuing, on various fronts, the doubling of gasoline prices in a few years. Or sooner. We don’t have an energy crisis but a petroleum distillate crisis; the rise of Asian/India motorized transportation makes it a given.

The U.S., with its population of high drag/low mileage SUVs, will end up replacing all its cars in five years with low drag/small engine cars. Ford, Honda, Nissan, BMW, and yes, Toyota, will dine out. Hybrids — did you see that HMC sold 10 times hybrid projections? You’re probably too young to remember when the VW Rabbit diesel was the hottest car in America.

My point: platinum, not gold. They are highly correlated, but platinum will not be a victim of rising bond yields. Every car needs it, and they will sell alot of it. PPLT is the ETF to have, very little downside, unlike gold, which will also rise but is interest-rate sensitive. If rates rise, gold will drop, but consumes will have even less disposable income to fill up their SUVs.

Actually, I am old enough and yes I agree with you on Platinum and also Palladium too! Both will perform very well. If Crude continues and goes for a new test of $100 it may start way sooner than either of us expect. Crude appears to also be breaking out of it’s trading range above $85. Not very far to break $100. The talking heads are simply saying the Oil rise is good sign of growing economy, I think it is the confirmation of the inflation monster that is looming on the horizon. Yes, both Gold and Crude are interest rate sensitive which may restrain the upside somewhat. However when Oil and Precious metals take off I don’t think it will make that big of a difference, except to cause the interest rates to be raised faster to now “dampen” the economy and control inflation. Gold may not correct anymore big test right now to see if the reverse head and shoulders w/wedge will be completed. So if the Precious metals complex starts to rise then I actually will be playing Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium. Thanks for sharing your thoughts with me, I hope we both can help each other to be more profitable in our trading, along with helping other investors too!-jschulmansr

// I think US Dollar is going to at least test 85, if it can break that then real potential for 90. UUP short tern $24.25 then $25 and $26 longer term. Currently nobody believes inflation is a threat so the Dollar will rise. As long as the dollar is rising, Bernanke doesn’t have to do anything except maintain. I do feel that in a few months the fundamental will change, when inflation is perceived as a threat, and it will be since we have at least almost quadrupled the money supply (US Dollars). When inflation does start to roar then we will see a rising US Dollar and rising Gold Prices along with rising interest rates. That is also when Gold will go to $2000 to $2500 on next leg of rally. Long term even higher. This of course is based on no unforeseen news events. The other shoe so to speak is the sovereign debt issue. If Europe can fix the situation then the dollar will take a hit. Finally if the credit rating of the US is downgraded then kiss the dollar goodbye and watch Gold really explode. I think for stocks the rally will stall around Dow 11,500 and then have a really nasty retracement. This will once again really shake investor confidence, but for those prepared it will be an opportunity of a lifetime to make money. Thanks for asking!-jschulmansr

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just Click on the Links Below…

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets. Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially.

Serious questions effecting your portfolio still remain:

– Have we seen the Indexes bottom or top?
– Is a reversal in the near future?
– Is it too late to go short?

Stay on the correct side of the market. Let our Trade Triangle technology work for you. It’s free, It’s informative, It’s on the money.

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

Risk reversals can be used to represent expectations on currency direction. We often peruse the 25 Delta Risk Reversal to see how a market is positioned towards a currency. This helps us to take a view on whether a currency is overbought, oversold or within normal ranges.

For those unfamiliar, a risk reversal consists of a pair of options, a call and a put, on the same currency, with the same expiration (one month) and sensitivity to the underlying spot rate. Risk reversals are quoted in terms of the difference in volatility between the two options.

One thing it is useful to consider is just where the marginal buyer will come from if the majority of the crowd has already taken a considerable view.

Let’s look at how things currently stand. In the screen grab below we are looking at the price of options of various currencies relative to USD.

So from this we take away that the crowd is heavily long the USD (short the Euro, CHF, GBP etc) and even more long the JPY.

Painful years of trading experience has taught us to always look to be a provider of liquidity to weak hands because weak hands are ultimately losing hands. With extreme negative risk reversals of currencies against the USD it isn’t difficult to work out that weak hands are now heavily positioned long the Dollar. Well, we will buy as many deep out of the money calls as we can on the Euro.

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Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P has had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just Click on the Links Below…

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

Ahh the sweet smell of recovery! It’s “official Bernanke said so and so did MSNBC. I don’t think we are anywhere close to being out of the woods yet. To many shoes still dropping. Mortgage Resets, Commercial Real Estate, the number of banks failing each month, and the U.S. Dollar; just to name a few. Oops, can’t forget Inflation, oops hyper-inflation. Hey, we haven’t even gotten to the world political climate; i.e. Iran, N. Korea, Israel, and Afghanistan; to name a few more. Where are the contrarians? What happened to astute investing? When is Geitner going to turn off the printing press? When is China going to fire back in the trade war and just say no to one of the next treasury auctions? If that happened for 1-2 auctions how do you think the market will react? Personally, I think we are dead in the eye of the hurricane of economic malestrom. I remember reading early this year this is the exact blueprint of the Bilderberger Plan, allow the stock market to get to pre-crash levels, suck in all the investors back into the market and then pull the plug. I am not wearing a tin foil hat either… research this out for yourself (Google Bilderberger’s and another good source is Alex Jones Infowar site.) I also find it very interesting no news from the latest G-20 meeting. Plus the BRIC countries are very silent, can you imagine if China convinced those countries to side with them in a trade war? Don’t get me wrong I want to be out of the recession too. However, when everyone is saying Buy, it is usually the time to Sell. I think the DJI still has more room 9750 is the first major resistance, next 9850, and then no man’s land at 10,000 and above. I don’t think we will quite get there (DJI 10,000), but since we are in the head building phase of the head and shoulders formation on the charts it could conceivably happen. So since there are some good stocks still out there, due due diligence, keep your stops tight within 10-18%. I know I would rather take 60-80% off the table in profits than ride the elevator back down.

Gold for the 3rd day has held above $1000, it doesn’t surprise me. Okay we now have support at $998-$1000 for gold. The first resistance is te $1011 double top, when that falls, next stop $1020, and then the assault on the all time high of $1033. Silver already is at it’s high for the year and the sky is the limit. First of all with the euphoria over the “recession is over gang” will mean a perceived and partially real rnewed industrial demand for both Silver and Copper too.. However, when Gold takes out it’s all time high, I think there will be a massive influx of money into Silver the “Poor Man’s Gold”. Silver at $25oz before the end of the year and Gold at $1250- $1325. I have been accumulating both and also own the core major Silver and Gold producers. I have have mid-tier and junior producers and a few good ‘explorer’s too! This is not to “toot my horn”, but to implore you to join me. Get in now, and hang on for the ride of your life! Great Investing! – jschulmansr

NO SPEED BUMPS IN SIGHT?
This rally has only modest volume (although more today) and positive major news remains thin but always “better than expected” (Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Survey). But, hey, Bernanke postulates that the recession is “likely over.” Now, who the hell knew that?! Geithner was more equivocal in his comments saying a “true recovery still has a ways to go.” Well, okay, let’s just say things are better than before.

Volume increased on an up day for a change but some of this is misleading given one glance at the late day trading on the 5 minute SPY chart. Breadth however was positive but not overwhelmingly so.

click to enlarge

“Today is the last trading day for VIX SEPT options, with the cash settlement price disseminated tomorrow morning off the CBOE SPX option volatility calculation. The open interest in the SEPT 25 puts is a staggering 188k, watch for the underlying to lift higher and migrate to this strike during the course of the trading session. Dealers are long this strike due to a series of put butterflies (SEPT 22.5,25,27.5) purchased by customers the past 10 days.” This per our friend, Scott Larison, Managing Director, Options Sales and Strategy, Forefront Advisory in New York.

Retail Sales were “better than expected” causing true believers in Chucky, the Consumer you can’t kill, to go on another shopping spree. You were out there shopping right?

We have quad-witching ahead and some of today’s action is no doubt linked to getting out of the way and manipulation with options and futures. This evening expiring September S&P futures are down a lot with rollover to December no doubt occurring. These are the types of the things that HAL 9000s live on.

There’s plenty of momentum for bulls and there are times this does seem unstoppable. Funny thing, sometimes this is just when things get upended.

One thing markets like is Washington gridlock and the most overexposed president in history is helping with it. He might do a little better if he gave us and his teleprompter a break. That’s just my opinion.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

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– Trend Analysis Revealed –

Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets. Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially.

Serious questions effecting your portfolio still remain:

– Have we seen the Indexes bottom or top?
– Is a reversal in the near future?
– Is it too late to go short?

Stay on the correct side of the market. Let our Trade Triangle technology work for you. It’s free, It’s informative, It’s on the money.

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

Look at Gold go! I have been telling, no pleading with you to get on board the Gold train for the last 2 months or longer. Hope you hopped aboard. Now Gold is at a key testing point. If we can successfully close above, and hold above $1000 then we definitely will be off to setting a new all time high for Gold. What will happen this time is that we will see a concentrated efforts by the Big 3 Shorts to push Gold down back to at least $950. If that does happen do not be alarmed, Gold will come roaring back. We will see Gold at $1250 to $1325 by the end of the year. I think we are going to take out $1034-36 high and go to $1080 to $1150. Then we will have a retracement back to $1000 to $980. Then we will start leg number 2 and zip up to $1250 with the rally going strong thru December. There is still plenty time to get in and plenty of undervalued Gold and Silver producers. Don’t forget to add some Platinum/Palladium producers as well like (PAL) and (ANO). I will be putting up a portfolio list in the next week of companies I am personally invested in. Also for some quick bang for the buck without the total risk you may want to look at (DGP) an ETF which gives you 2x times the future price gain.

As for stocks we are now forming the right shoulder of the head and shoulders top formation, expect choppy, whipsaw action as the beleagured bulls try to hang on. However they (the Bulls) will run out of energy and the market is getting ready to collapse. A close below 9300 will signal the beginning of the failure. Below 9250 will confirm, and absolute confirmation with a close below 9000. I do think tomorrow (Fri) we have a chance of seeing 9400-9425 and then start a gradual decline accelerating at the end of next week. As always Great Investing! – jschulmansr

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

Well the dog days of summer are over and September is blowing in. As the brilliant colors of autumn are starting to bloom with the leaves turning orange, gold and crimson; the leaves are starting to drop. That’s not all that is starting to fall, stocks are beginning their seasonal drop. If you haven’t taken profits please do so. We will see one more push up in stocks as they form the right shoulder of the head and shoulders formation on the chart. We have just finished the head with the right shoulder to follow (DJIA). 9200 (DJIA) is the first support, next roughly 9125-9080. A decisive break below the 50 day moving average or 9000 will be absolute confirmation of the new bear market downtrend. Commercial real estate is one of the next factors (shoe) about to drop. In addition the tax break for buying a new home is about to end, and the auto industry will not have cash for clunkers to fall back on. Late Breaking China has said NO to Credit derivatives and any losses from them. This is definitely not good for the US markets. So get rid of your more speculative stocks move to good yielding stocks in industries that people have to buy the products in good times or bad times. On the rest move your stops very close w/in 10% trailing. Maybe also look at selling covered calls or puts to lock in profits and earn a little income on the side.

Gold and Precious metals are coiled up ready to spring dramatically to the upside. Countdown is almost over, ignition commencing. We have a nice little triangle in Gold. Personally, I feel we will see the breakout to the upside after a little false breakout to the downside. In other words I fell it will go down like this, first we will see Gold test the $930 level as the Big 3 shorts make one more desperate effort to save themselves. However I feel that Gold will hold and climb back to $950 and then break above $965. When that happens the next resistance will be $980, then $1000, and then a 2nd test for the all time high at $1032. I think it will successfully break that level and hit at least $1250 before the end of the year with a potential to actually hit $1325. Keep accumulating companies with a low cost of production, junior and mid tier producers with current or about to start production. There are still many bargains which I will start featuring here on the blog.

I apologize for the recent lack of posts over the past month. Since I lost my day job, I decided to go back to school again so to speak by taking a few intensive trading and technical analysis courses to refresh up again. Since my new job will be trading the markets, I will be sharing my picks and option trades, forex trades, along with choice stock picks. Wishing all of us Great Investing! -jschulmansr

Bullish on gold since it carried a $400-per-ounce price tag, Blue Phoenix Chief Investment Strategist John Licata expects the king of metals to ring in the New Year with a $1,200-per-ounce crown. As he told The Gold Report in April, he still considers gold one of the best asset plays in the world. With recovery on the horizon, he’s also high on silver—in part because a pickup in manufacturing will drive up demand. While he says it’s premature to claim economic recovery, he isn’t looking to copper to serve as the traditional harbinger of a return from recession this time. His rationale? Good economic news—while too inconsistent to make recovery imminent—is already baked in to copper’s climb already this year.

The Gold Report: You weren’t too bullish on seeing a recovery in 2009 when we caught up with you in April. We’ve seen some good Q2 reporting from a variety of companies and some encouraging economic data. The government is starting to claim we’re in recovery. What’s your take on this?

John Licata: I do think we’ve seen some better domestic economic data, but it’s premature to think we’re totally out of the woods. In terms of corporate earnings, a lot of company profits might have surprised to the upside, but they’re still down 50% to 70% from quarters before or the prior year.

Many companies have been trying to compare Q1 and Q2. You’re still not seeing dramatic differences to the upside. Quite frankly, some companies are still living within cash flow and I think that’s one of the reasons why we could have a problem with supply and demand imbalances as we come to the end of 2009 and enter 2010.

Unemployment is likely to keep rising. Although the last numbers were much better than anticipated, I don’t think we’ve seen the green light that will cause people to start hiring again. We could hit 10% unemployment by the end of the year, and that’s going to be a precursor to some weaker retail heading into the holiday season. Net-net, you probably could put the word ‘inconsistent’ toward most of the economic data coming out of the U.S.

The industrial numbers that came out of China a couple of weeks ago [August 10] were actually below expectations as well. While everyone wants to be bullish and the data is somewhat better than many expected, it’s still not great. So I think to claim victory right now is definitely premature.

TGR: You mentioned a supply-demand imbalance. What do you see on that front?

JL: Companies are not putting money back into infrastructure. For that reason, once demand actually starts to increase, supply levels will be shockingly different from what people might expect.

TGR: Are you differentiating between the BRIC countries and North America in that regard?

JL: I’m not just looking at the BRIC countries as the barometer for the economic pulse. I don’t even think China is the saving grace for commodities. But I do think what is going to be indicative for a recovery is to see demand pick up, to start seeing jobs pick up again, more consistently; not just one month out of six. We need to see consistent job growth.

TGR: When do you think demand might pick up?

JL: Q3, perhaps Q4, is when we probably can start seeing demand start picking up and I think that’s when we’re going to start to see overall a global economic recovery. I’m skeptical that it can happen before Q4.

TGR: Is that worldwide demand pickup you’re anticipating?

JL: I’m referring to North America.

TGR: Can demand pick up before unemployment abates?

JL: It can happen before, but I think demand and employment will increase in tandem.

TGR: In our previous conversation, you compared the investment opportunities in oil, natural gas and gold to one another. At this point, which of these three sectors do you think offer the greatest return?

JL: Because of the upside that I think could happen over the next 12 months, I would rate natural gas first, gold second and oil third. For right now, I’m conservatively optimistic on oil. Although short term we might have a pullback, I’m still bullish on the price of oil. I think oil will trade north of $80 by year end, and I think we’ll again see triple-digit oil within the next two years. A lot of major wells in the world are not as productive as they once were and when it comes to demand increasing because the overall economic health around the world is picking up, we could be in trouble in terms of supplies. That relates to the metals as well as energy.

TGR: Speaking of metals, your outlook for gold?

JL: I continue to maintain that we could see $1,200 gold prices by year-end. I think gold is very much on the way to hitting that pretty aggressive price target. The miners themselves seem pretty confident on the upside for gold.

TGR: In April, you described gold as one of the best asset plays in the world and your recommendation to investors was to focus initially on physical gold. Have you changed that viewpoint?

JL: No. I’ve been bullish on gold since it was below $400. But now I am starting to see some opportunities in the equity side of the gold market that are becoming very appealing and I didn’t see that when we last spoke.

TGR: Are you still bullish on platinum and palladium, too?

JL: I am still enthusiastic, but not as bullish on either of them just because we have seen a bit of a run since April. I’d rather be in silver. I think silver gets forgotten when we start talking about precious metals. As opposed to platinum or palladium, I would rather be in the silver space.

TGR: Is there anything in particular in silver that you’re finding appealing?

JL: I just think if we’re talking about an economic recovery in the back half of this year into 2010 and silver is mostly used for industrial purposes, I honestly think that silver prices are just forgotten. When people start talking about the inflation hedge, they jump into gold. If they start talking about the economy improving, they jump into copper. They tend to forget that silver is actually used for much manufacturing. So I think that is the forgotten metal and I do think that silver prices can move a lot higher, especially as gold prices march through $1,000.

TGR: As you say, people look to copper as the leading metal to point to in terms of a recovery. What’s your feeling about copper?

JL: You hit the nail on the head. Everyone starts to talk about copper, but nothing has jumped out at me to say that copper prices have much more upside. Copper prices are up nearly 100% year-to-date, so I think a lot of the recovery that many people are talking about has been priced in already.

The Baltic Dry Index, an index that just had the biggest monthly drop since October (down 28% in August), has been down because people fear that China might cut back on buying iron ore and coal. If that happens, copper prices won’t be immune. Copper supplies have been tight for the last couple of quarters. If anything, we’re trading about 35 cents or 40 cents above the recent 50-day moving average. I think copper is over-extended right now.

TGR: Any last comments before we meet again?

JL: Only that while it’s a difficult marketplace and I do expect tight markets around the world to continue, some of the plays we’ve talked about have the makings of a pretty successful portfolio.

After studying economics and graduating from Saint Peter’s College in New Jersey (where he received the Wall Street Journal Award for economic excellence), John J. Licata set his sights on Wall Street. During his career, John has held both trading and research positions on the NYMEX, Dow Jones, Smith Barney and Brokerage America. Early in 2006, he founded Blue Phoenix, Inc., an independent energy/metals research and consulting firm based in New York City. John, the company’s Chief Investment Strategist, has appeared regularly in the media (CNBC, Bloomberg TV/Radio, Business News Network (BNN), Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, Chicago Sun, Los Angeles Times, etc.) over the years for his insights/forecasts in the commodity spectrum.

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

The simple answer is yes. The key question is… are we going to test $1000 or back below $900? If you look at the daily charts Gold has been inching slowly upwards, the first resistance in $965, then a successful close above $980-$983, will confirm the upside new assault on $1000. I am still sticking to my prediction of Gold at $1250 by the end of the year.

The charts are almost indentical to 2007 before the big breakout, check it out for yourself. A major factor which few are talking about is any breakout above $1000 will cause a massive short squeeze or an even more massive loss for the Big 3 (banks) who are heavily short. Posistions starting as low as $750 -$800. Due to this there exists an even larger potential for Gold to actually go as high as $1500 by year end.

Silver on the other side is going to go to $25 by year end and an even bigger short squeeze potential exists in that market. By the way look for Crude oil to be at or above $100 barrel. The dollar is doomed either way and inflation will have accelerated to the 12%-15% range at about the same time.

I’ll update the stock markets tomorrow and even though I think we still a tiny bit of room to the upside as we finish “the head” of the head and shoulders pattern that has been forming. Keep your stop loss orders tight and as always, Good Investing! – jschulmansr

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

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Why Gold ETFs Are All About Timing --- Seeking Alpha
By: Tom Lydon of ETF TrendsInvestor sentiments change with the seasons and summer proved to be
a lackluster season for gold. Nevertheless, a new season may providegold and related ETFs with the opportunity to shine.A recent dip in gold prices renewed fund manager interest in gold,
citing the pullback as a buying opportunity, remarks Dan Well for
MoneyNews.Gold abated from its recent high of $992.10 an ounce on June 3, but
many investors still believe inflation will kick in sooner or later.Some portfolio managers believe gold may even touch $1,300 as soon
as spring. Gold is a popular hedge in inflationary times.In the short term, seasonal changes may be a significant factor in
gold’s decline. Historically, gold prices tend to dip during summer
because the period lacks big gift-giving holidays. But purchases of
gold-related products resume in the fall when the Indian wedding
season, Ramadan, Christmas, and the Chinese New Year kick in.Many people don’t know how many ounces a bar of gold actually
contains, comments Jim Wang for Bargaineering. In Wang’s search for
the answer, he discovered that there’s really no standard when
referring to “gold bars.” There is, however, the “400 ounce London
Good Delivery.” At $946 an ounce, the price as of Aug. 11, one
hefty stick of gold comes to $378,704. Yowza.

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

The timer is ticking and drawing ever closer. The Markets are behaving just like I felt they would be. The (DJI) is making it’s final push while the broader market is starting to lag. We are almost at the top of the head in the head and shoulders pattern for the (DJI). Will it break 10,000? Personally I do not think so. The market rallied today on “funny” unemployment figures released by the government this morning. What happened to the 750,000 unemployed workers which have seemingly vanished? They certainly were not hired on new jobs! Where did they go? Add them back, you now have a more real picture of unemployment. Please keep your stop losses tight and be prepared to be stopped out.

Gold and Precious Metals… Like I said the timer is drawing down to zero. Keep accumulating and add on to your (DGP) positions too. Buy producers and those near production with proven reserves. I still see $1250 by year end for Gold, $25 for Silver and /or better! Buy now! Your Children and Grandchildren will Thank You! Another stock I like is Apollo Gold (AGT), they recently have started production and are ramping up for more. At .45 cents a share you can get a nice position for a small investment. Another “Buy and Forget”. By the way I still also feel Silver will outperform Gold on a percentage basis (see article below).

Have a Great Weekend, I will be resuming regular daily posts as soon as I have finished setting up a couple of new web sites. My other vocation, I am also an Internet Marketer. Remember, set up as many multiple income streams as you can. Good Investing! -jschulmansr

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just Click on the Links Below…

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) — Corporate insiders have recently been selling their companies’ shares at a greater pace than at any time since the top of the bull market in the fall of 2007.

Does that mean you should immediately start lightening your equity exposure?

It depends on whom you ask.

But, first, the data.

Corporate insiders are a company’s officers, directors and largest shareholders. They are required to report to the SEC whenever they buy or sell shares of their companies, and various research firms collect and analyze those transactions.

One is the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research. In their latest issue, received Monday afternoon, Vickers reported that the ratio of insider selling to insider buying last week was 4.16-to-1, the highest the ratio has been since October 2007.

I don’t need to remind you that the 2002-2007 bull market topped out that month.

To be sure, the weekly insider data can be volatile, especially during periods like the summer, in which the overall volume of insider transactions can be quite light. That is one of the reasons why Vickers also calculates an eight-week average of the insider sell-to-buy ratio, and it currently stands at 2.69-to-1. That’s the highest that this eight-week ratio has been since November 2007.

To put the insiders’ recent selling into context, consider that in late April, the last time I devoted a column to the behavior of insiders (and when the rally that began on March 9 was still only six weeks old), the comparable eight-week sell-to-buy ratio was just 0.72-to-1. ( Read my April 27 column.)

Why, given this, shouldn’t we be running, not walking, to the exits?

May be you should, of course.

But, in deciding whether to do so, there are several other factors to consider.

The first reason to be at least a little bit skeptical of insiders’ current pessimism is that they, on balance, failed to anticipate the 2007-2009 bear market. On the contrary, as I reported on numerous occasions during that bear market, they were largely bullish throughout. The average recommended equity exposure of Vickers’ two model portfolios, for example, was around 90% from late 2007 through the early part of this year.

What makes insiders more worth listening to now than then?

It’s a fair enough question, of course. What those who are inclined to follow the insiders can say by way of response is that insiders, over the years, have been more right than wrong — even though by no means infallible.

Another reason not to immediately go to cash in response to insiders’ increased recent predisposition to sell their companies’ stock: They are often early.

In fact, Investors Intelligence, a newsletter edited by John Gray and Michael Burke, bases one of its market timing indicators on how the insiders were behaving 12 months previously.

A similar point was made earlier this week by Jonathan Moreland, editor of the Insider Insights newsletter. While acknowledging that recent insider behavior “seems totally inconsistent with this rally continuing unabated,” Moreland went on to argue that “it may take weeks or even months for insiders to be proven right. Money can be made in the meantime.”

The bottom line? Insiders are not always right. And even when they are right, they often are early.

Even so, it’s difficult to sugar-coat the recent increase in the pace of their selling,

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

The fundamentals are in place for silver and gold to move higher. The ongoing issuance of US treasuries and further quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve inevitably point to continued dollar weakness. The interesting fact that the Fed stepped in recently to indirectly buy some of the auctioned bonds points to a decreasing lack of investor appetite for US debt. That the Fed indulged in QE is no surprise – they announced that months ago. It was more the fact they had to step into the void created by the absence of buyers that was more telling. So much for the fundamentals – now what about the technicals of timing?

No doubt you are aware that the US Dollar Index has breached longer term support at 77.7 and is currently slogging to retrieve that level of support. We don’t think it will succeed but for how long it will hold out is as yet uncertain. The breach is slight and we are still looking for a decisive breach that will propel gold and silver higher. The chart below sums up the dollar situation with potential overhead resistance at 79.

Looking at silver, we are seeing a pattern emerge that suggests if the dollar breaks to the downside, silver will be targeting its former high of $21 though we are uncertain of it completely taking that high out in the medium term. Nevertheless a buying opportunity is present and as advised to subscribers, we already have gone long in July.

The question for those with positions is when to exit? The silver chart is shown below displaying the longer term trend in terms of months with the prospect of the upper channel being tested if the dollar falls through to its lower channel in the low 70s. As a guide, remember when the US Dollar fell to 70 in March 2008, silver went to $21.

Zooming into the daily charts, we see silver has begun a move up since mid-July not dissimilar to the moves up in February and June. Those moves lasted two to three months and we anticipate something of the same here. Note the support lines in the two prior moves and their similar angles of ascent. By way of projection I have copied the first trend line from February and superimposed it on the current move. It meets the longer term line of resistance at about $18. That is the kind of price action we hope silver will indulge us when the dollar breaks down further.

You will also note the Elliott wave notation. The last move up from April to June was a clear impulse wave and this current wave looks to be in a wave 3 now with all the upside potential that such a wave brings.

So the stage is set for some fireworks but to aid our silver and gold cause the resistance line on the US Dollar Index chart needs to hold. So far it is and next week should prove to be very interesting.

Is gold bullion coming back to life? Should one read anything into the rise of 6.2% (+$56) since the yellow metal’s low of early July?

When it comes to gold bullion and gold stocks, I need to confess I started my investment career in 1984 as none other than a mining analyst. Ever since those days of calculating net present values on my trusted HP 12C I have been intrigued by the shenanigans of the yellow metal and related stocks. And I have also learnt over the years that one should never underestimate the ability of the gold price to surprise when least expected.

Admittedly, part of the improvement in the gold price can be ascribed to the fading US greenback, which declined by 3.9% over the same period. I always have more faith in gold’s rallies when they are not only a reflection of US dollar weakness, but gold is also appreciating in most currencies. This serves as an indication of increased investment demand and is a phenomenon one should keep an eye on as gold might just have started moving independently of the dollar over the past few days.

Considering the fundamental outlook for gold, a very comprehensive report was recently published by Austria’s Erste Group. The analysts list the positive and negative influences below, leading them to conclude that gold is only half-way through a secular bull market and offers an outstanding risk/return profile.

Negative factors:
• Clearly falling jewellery demand.
• Recessions are basically not a good environment for the gold price (the gold price gets stimulated at a later stage by the measures taken during the recession).
• Gold tends to be held as asset and cash of last resort, which means it is liquidated in extreme financial situations. Given that more than 70% of jewellery is bought on the Indian subcontinent, the supply of recycled gold might continue to rise.
• De-hedging is coming to an end.
• The futures positions (CoT) would suggest a short-term correction.

Positive aspects:
• The worldwide reflationary policy will continue for a while.
• Global USD reserves are excessive, and the need to diversify is enormous.
• De facto zero-interest policy in USA, Japan and Europe.
• Central banks have changed their attitude towards gold.
• Supply still in long-term downward trend.
• Investment demand will remain high; Wall Street has discovered gold.
• Commodity cycle has a long way to go.
• Geopolitical environment remains fragile.
• China will increase its gold reserves.

Gold’s technical picture is certainly looking up. This is explained by Adam Hewison of INO.com who prepared a short analysis of gold’s most likely direction. (The analysis was done on Tuesday, but is still as relevant today as it was then.)

Seasonally, September also seems to be a good month for gold, with an average gain of 2.6% for the month since 1970.

Source: Plexus Asset Management

I am bullish on gold in the medium term, especially as I believe the vast money printing by central banks could set off strong inflation pressures down the road. I will not be surprised to see bullion passing the infamous $1,000 resistance level over the next few weeks – a question of fifth time lucky – and I will be inclined to add bullion to my portfolio on pullbacks.

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

Well it looks like the rally is starting, growing slowly with a broad base of support for Gold. Keep accumulating while you have the chance. Lots of Companies out there that are looking mighty attractive. Remember accumulate juniors and mid tier producers or those companies at or near production. Remember I am still calling for $1250 gold by year end. The only monkey wrench that could be thrown in is if the big the shorts on the market try to drive it down one more time. Support lies at $950, $928, $910; and resistances are at $970, $987, and then $1000. This rally is very reminiscent of what happened back in July-Aug. 2007 only on a more volatile basis. One other quick note as far as Silver is concerned. I am looking for $25+ Silver by the end of the year and to perform on a percentage basis even better than Gold. Some stocks I really like aggressive buys, (OSKFF) $6.80 OB, (HL) $3.75 OB, (NAK) $7.55 OB, (CDE) $16.00 OB, (NG) $5.00 OB, (FRG) $5.00 OB, and that’s just to mention a few. For Silver, (FRMSF) $2.80 OB, (IVN) $8.50 OB, along with (HL) and (CDE). For Platinum and Palladium, (SWC) $7.50 OB, (PAL) $3.90 OB, (ANO) $1.25. (OB equals or better). Remember due your due diligence, consult your financial advisor’s and read the prospectuses before making any investments. Disclosure: I am Long all of the afore mentioned stocks. Good Investing! -jschulmansr

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold,
at BullionVault====================================================Why Gold Could Hit $1,300 This Year --- Seeking Alpha
By: Graham Summers of Gains, Pains, & CapitalGold may be nearing its next major leg up.No investment ever goes straight up or straight down. During the
last bull market in gold, the precious metal rose 2,329% from a
low of $35 in 1970 to a high of $850 in 1980. However, during that
time, there was a period of 18 months in which gold fell nearly 50%
(see the chart below).As you can see, from mid-1971 to December 1974, gold rose 471%. It
then fell 50%, from December ’74 to August ’76. After that, it beganits next leg up, exploding 750% higher from August ’76 to January
1980. Now, in its current bull market (2001 to March 2008), gold
rose over 300% from $250 to a little over $1,000. And just like in
the mid-70s, it began showing signs of weakness after its first big
rally up to $1,014 in March ’08. At one point, it even fell to $700, a 30% retraction.Granted, it wasn’t a full 50% retraction like the one that occurred
from 1974-76. But we are experiencing a financial crisis. And gold
is the most common catastrophe insurance.If we were to go by the historic pattern of the gold market in the
‘70s, gold should experience upwards resistance for 19 months after
its first peak today. Gold’s recent peak was $1,014 in March ’08
(roughly 17 months ago). If this bull market parallels the last one,then gold should renew its upward momentum in a very serious way
starting in October 2009. And this next leg up should be a major
one (the biggest gains came during the second rally in gold’s bull
market in the ‘70s).The chart certainly forecasts a major move.As you can see, gold has formed a long-term inverse head and
shoulders formation (two smaller collapses book-ending a major
collapse). Typically a head and shoulders predicts a massive
collapse. However, when the head and shoulders is inverse, as is
the case for gold today, this typically predicts a MAJOR leg up.Indeed, any move above the “neckline” of 1,000 would forecast a
MAJOR move up to $1,300 or so. Going by history, this is precisely
the move we should expect: remember based on historical trends
(the gold bull market of the ‘70s) gold should begin its second
and largest leg up in September or October 2009.Watch the gold chart closely over the next month or so. If gold
makes a move above $980 perhaps add to your current positions.
If it clears $1,000, hold on tight, cause the next leg up in this
secular bull market has begun.Good Investing!===================================================My Note: After watching stocks (DJI) this afternoon and the strange
price behavior before the close, I felt I would add this article too!
-jschulmansr
===================================================
Five Reason the Market Could Crash This Fall - Seeking Alpha
By: Graham Summers of Gains, Pains, & CapitalWith all this blather about “green shoots” and economic “recovery”
and new “bull market,” I thought I’d inject a little reality into
the collective financial dialogue. The following are ALL true, all
valid, and all horrifying…Enjoy.1) High Frequency Trading Programs account for 70% of market
volumeHigh Frequency Trading Programs (HFTP) collect a ¼ of a penny
rebate for every transaction they make. They’re not interested
in making a gains from a trade, just collecting the rebate.Let’s say an institutional investor has put in an order to buy
15,000 shares of XYZ company between $10.00 and $10.07. The
institution’s buy program is designed to make this order without
pushing up the stock price, so it buys the shares in chunks of
100 or so (often it also advertises to the index how many shares
are left in the order).First it buys 100 shares at $10.00. That order clears, so the
program buys another 200 shares at $10.01. That clears, so the
program buys another 500 shares at $10.03. At this point an HFTP
will have recognized that an institutional investor is putting in
a large staggered order.The HFTP then begins front-running the institutional investor. So
the HFTP puts in an order for 100 shares at $10.04. The broker who
was selling shares to the institutional investor would obviously
rather sell at a higher price (even if it’s just a penny). So the
broker sells his shares to the HFTP at $10.04. The HFTP then turns
around and sells its shares to the institutional investor for
$10.04 (which was the institution’s next price anyway).In this way, the trading program makes ½ a penny (one ¼ for buying
from the broker and another ¼ for selling to the institution) AND
makes the institutional trader pay a penny more on the shares.And this kind of nonsense now comprises 70% OF ALL MARKET
TRANSACTIONS. Put another way, the market is now no longer moving
based on REAL orders, it’s moving based on a bunch of HFTPs gaming
each other and REAL orders to earn fractions of a penny.Currently, roughly five billion shares trade per day. Take away
HFTP’s transactions (70%) and you’ve got daily volume of 1.5
billion. That’s roughly the same amount of transactions that
occur during Christmas (see the HUGE drop in late December), a
time when almost every institution and investor is on vacation.HFTPs were introduced under the auspices of providing liquidity.
But the liquidity they provide isn’t REAL. It’s largely microsecond
trades between computer programs, not REAL buy/sell orders from
someone who has any interest in owning stocks.In fact, HFTPs are not REQUIRED to trade. They’re entirely “for
profit” enterprises. And the profits are obscene: $21 billion
spread out amongst the 100 or so firms who engage in this
(Goldman Sachs (GS) is the undisputed king controlling an estimated
21% of all High Frequency Trading).So IF the market collapses (as it well could when the summer ends
and institutional participation returns to the market in full
force). HFTPs can simply stop trading, evaporating 70% of the
market’s trading volume overnight. Indeed, one could very easily
consider HFTPs to be the ULTIMATE market prop as you will soon see.TAKE AWAY 70% of MARKET VOLUME AND YOU HAVE FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON.2) Even counting HFTP volume, market volume has contracted the
most since 1989Indeed, volume hasn’t contracted like this since the summer of 1989.For those of you who aren’t history buffs, the S&P 500’s performance
in 1989 offers some clues as what to expect this coming fall. In
1989, the S&P 500 staged a huge rally in March, followed by an even
stronger rally in July. Throughout this time, volume dried up to a
small trickle.What followed wasn’t pretty.Anytime stocks explode higher on next to no volume and crap
fundamentals you run the risk of a real collapse. I am officially
going on record now and stating that IF the S&P 500 hits 1,000, we
will see a full-blown Crash like last year.3) This Latest Market Rally is a Short-Squeeze and Nothing MoreTo date, the stock market is up 48% since its March lows. This is
truly incredible when you consider the underlying economic picture:
normally when the market rallies 40%+ from a bear market low, the
economy is already nine months into recovery mode. Indeed, assuming
the market is trading based on earnings, the S&P 500 is currently
discounting earnings growth of 40-50% for 2010. The odds of that
happening are about one in one million.A closer examination of this rally reveals the degree to which
“junk” has triumphed over value. Since July 10th:

The 50 smallest stocks have outperformed the largest 50

stocks by 7.5%.

The 50 most shorted stocks have beaten the 50 least shorted

stocks by 8.8%.

Why is this?Because this rally has largely been a short squeeze.Consider that the short interest has plunged 72% in the last two
months. Those industries that should be falling the most right now
due to the world’s economic contraction (energy, materials, etc.)
have seen the largest drop in short interest: Energy -90%,
Materials -94%, Financials -86%.In simple terms, this rally was the MOTHER of all short squeezes.
The fact that it occurred on next to no volume and crummy
fundamentals sets the stage for a VERY ugly correction.4) 13 Million Americans Exhaust Unemployment by 12/09 A lot of the bull-tards in the media have been going wild that
unemployment claims are falling. It strikes me as surprising that
this would be true given the fact that virtually every company that
posted the alleged “awesome” earnings in 2Q09 did so by laying off
thousands of employees:

So unemployment claims are falling, that means people are finding
jobs right? Wrong. It means that people are exhausting their
unemployment benefits. When you consider that there are 30 million
people on food stamps in the US (out of the 200 million that are of
working age: 15-64) it’s clear REAL unemployment must be closer to
16%.And they’re slowly running out of their government lifelines.The three million people who lost their jobs in the second half of
2008 will exhaust their benefits by October 2009. When you add in
dependents, this means that around 10 million folks will have no
income and virtually no savings come Halloween. Throw in the other
four million who lost their jobs in the first half of 2009 and
you’ve got 13 million people (counting families) who will be
essentially destitute by year-end.
How does this affect the stock market?The US consumer is 70% of our GDP. People without jobs don’t spend
money. People who are having to work part-time instead of full-time
(another nine million) spend less money than full time employees.
And people who are forced to work shorter work weeks (current
average is 33, an ALL TIME LOW), have less money to spend.Wall Street makes a big deal about earnings (earnings estimates,
earnings forecast, etc), but when it comes to economic growth,
sales are the more critical metric. Companies can increase profits
by reducing costs temporarily, but unless actual top lines increase,there is NO growth to be seen. No revenue growth means no hiring,
which means no uptick in employment, which means greater housing
and credit card defaults, greater Federal welfare (unemployment,
food stamps, etc), etc.So how will corporate profits perform as more and more consumers
become part-time, unemployed, or destitute? Well, so far profits
have been awful. And that’s BEFORE we start seeing millions of
Americans losing their unemployment benefits.With the S&P rallying on these already crap results… what do you
think will happen when reality sets in during 3Q09?5) The $1 QUADRILLION Derivatives Time BombFew commentators care to mention that the total notional value of
derivatives in the financial system is over $1.0 QUADRILLION
(that’s 1,000 TRILLIONS).US Commercial banks alone own an unbelievable $202 trillion in
derivatives. The top five of them hold 96% of this.By the way, the chart is in TRILLIONS of dollars:As you can see, Goldman Sachs alone has $39 trillion in derivatives
outstanding. That’s an amount equal to more than three times total
US GDP. Amazing, but nothing compared to JP Morgan (JPM), which has
a whopping $80 TRILLION in derivatives on its balance sheet.Bear in mind, these are “notional” values of derivatives, not the
amount of money “at risk” here. However, if even 1% of the $1
Quadrillion is actually at risk, you’re talking about $10 trillion
in “at risk.”What are the odds that Wall Street, when allowed to trade without
any regulation, oversight, or audits, put a lot of money at risk?
I mean… Wall Street’s track record regarding financial instruments
that were ACTUALLY analyzed and rated by credit ratings agencies
has so far been stellar.After all, mortgage backed securities, credit default swaps,
collateralized debt obligations… those vehicles all turned out
great what with the ratings agencies, banks risk management systems,and various other oversight committees reviewing them.I’m sure that derivatives which have absolutely NO oversight, no
auditing, no regulation, will ALL be fine. There’s NO WAY that the
very same financial institutions that used 30-to-1 leverage or more
on regulated balance sheet investments would put $50+ trillion “at
risk” (only 5% of the $1 quadrillion notional) when they were
trading derivatives.If Wall Street did put $50 trillion at risk… and 10% of that money
goes bad (quite a low estimate given defaults on regulated
securities) that means $5 trillion in losses: an amount equal to
HALF of the total US stock market.This of course assumes that Wall Street only put 5% of its notional
value of derivatives at risk… and only 10% of the derivatives “at
risk” go bad. Do you think those assumptions are a bit… low?
===================================================Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

· Who's been driving this record bull-run in gold?

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Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at
BullionVault====================================================Nothing in today's post should be considered as an offer to buy or
sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for
informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your
Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s
and related information carefully before you make any investing
decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

The other shoe what is it? Actually, there are several “other” shoes getting ready to drop. Today we saw one of them… Did you check out the Treasury Auction today? What happened on those 5 year notes. They didn’t sell all they offered in simple terms. This is a huge week of financing for the Treasury and they had a shortfall and were only able to sell $39 billion; the bid to cover ratio was 1.92 the weakest in almost a year. Yields (the tail) were well above expectations with the yield rising to a 4 week high of 2.66%.

In turn the stock market dropped 26 points to close at 9071 DJI. Slipping ever closer to falling beneath 9000. Analyst’s however are stating the the DJI came back up after much deeper losses which is bullish. Hmm… Could there be another round of fabricated unemployment numbers tomorrow? This market is being heavily manipulated and is try to suck in investors to the upside so that BAM!, another Crash and there goes another chunk of our savings down the drain. Be aware, watch the remaining Treasury auction, keep your stop loss points very close. Remember there is a little bit of room to the upside to make a nice head and shoulders.

Alas, poor Gold today down another $12 today. Good news for smart investors, time to buy more. Believe it or not the rally start is about 1 to 1/2 months away, maybe much sooner. Oil did it’s retracement today and will start heading back to $70 barrel. Keep accumulating in both Precious Metals and Oil stocks junior and mid tier producers. Our time is coming very soon.

In the coming days I will put together/report my portfolio fav’s and publish them so you can check them out for yourself. Stay tuned, subscribe to the blog or follow me on Twitter to be the first to know.

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

Okay, I admit it this rally took me a little by surprise. Ah… Hope springs eternal! Everybody is banking that we are out of the woods. Well take your profits, keep your stops tight protect yourself. I may be wrong again and we may see 10,000 on the DJI. However, I still think we have an actual retracement needed, and I don’t think that support is very strong underlying the market. Companies are still downsizing, even I fell victim to this. Yes, I am now officially in the ranks of the unemployed. Thank God I can trade and have a severance package otherwise, I would be doomed to getting unemployment which is no where close to my earnings; and/or ability to pay my bills. Market Confidence is definitely waning.

Unemployment rates are still much higher than stated. Home sales while up, how many of those are companies lowering prices to cost or below just to get them off their inventory rolls. Inflation due to unlimited money printing, is cause a pricing increase across the board. Inflation is here. Bernanke is caught between a rock and a hard place. If he increase Interest rates he will destroy the budding economy. If he keeps interest rates the same and keeps printing money, he will cause continued price and overall Inflation maybe even Hyper-Inflation.

Next are you really aware of what is in the current health reform bill if not you must read it. Here is the link all 1018 pages. It is an outright power grab and takeover of our country by Government and the Banks, and the “shadow government. According to information published, they have stated they will bring the Stock Market back to these levels (9000-10,000 DJI), suck everybody in, and crash the market and steal your money. When I say crash, I mean crash, all the way down to 6400 or worse. Be advised and be prepared. You will not heard this talked about on market news even from FOX. Here are some of the sources read here and here. These are just a few of many sources that you can check, read and decide for yourself.

Is the Dollar Doomed? Dollar Vs Yen How Do I Play It? Revisiting and reanalyzing the USD/JPY(New Video) http://bit.ly/Fnlq7

Whipsawed By Goldman? Here’s How you SHOULD have traded Goldman and What You Should Do Now! (New Video) http://bit.ly/3anG2z

——————————————————————–

Today on the Dow it made a futile attempt to jump to the positive before being slammed and seesawed near the close. If I were to project the market it looks like we are forming an actual Head and shoulders top and are cureently worrking on the head. There is still a little room for the upside to somewhere around 9500-9600 DJI will be a strong resistance point. Next 10,000 DJI, and then the gap around 10,300 DJI. Remember however, we have already moved high enough to qualify as the head so bring your stops in tight.

Look for continued US Dollar weakness long term, be prepared that Bernanke may have raise Interest Rates which will give a short term boost to the Dollar; but long term there isd only one direction down. Oil until end of summer will trade in a range (barring any unforseen news) between $60 and $75-$80. At end of August look for new push higher back over $100 at the minimum.

Time for my favorite Gold, they are trying to push it down one more time again, especially since the summer, thin traded market, and before the CFTC actually brings in posistion limits in Commodities trading. I am still calling for $1250 Gold by the end of the year, with $25 Silver, Platinum around $1800 -$2000. Take Delivery on any bullion you purchase especially off of COMEX. Good Investing! -jschulmansr

Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets. Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially.

Serious questions effecting your portfolio still remain:

– Have we seen the Indexes bottom or top?
– Is a reversal in the near future?
– Is it too late to go short?

Stay on the correct side of the market. Let our Trade Triangle technology work for you. It’s free, It’s informative, It’s on the money.

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

I really hope you haven’t been fooled by this latest little upswing over the last couple of days in the Stock Markets. Please take your profits now and do it tomorrow! Turn that money over into resource based stocks especially Gold and Silver, Oil and Energy, and your basic foodstuff and base metal commodities. Wed. rally was to get rid of the weak shorts snatch their cash and today fool them to turn their positions and catch them with a whipsaw. Thurs. rally basically caused by Roubini semi positive remarks on the economy. How interesting, I wonder what tomorrow Fri. result will be when the markets hear about Roubini’s rebuttal (of course after market close!).

If you can’t wait scroll to bottom of the post for today’s free $725 value stock tip…

I wanted to take a minute and share with you some excellent links to INO.com Market Club. I am personally a member and I love their charting tools and their patented “Triangle Technology”. This is a “must have” for any serious trader. I’ve arranged for my readers a couple of special videos on the Dow Jones Industrial’s, the Dollar Index, the Aussie Dollar.

Watch them, look around Ino, Market Club, and sign up for the “free” stuff to check them out…

Important Dow Update, July 14th

In today’s short video I am going to be revisiting the Dow Jones Industrial index (DJI).

It has been sometime since we last looked at the relationship between the US dollar and the Australian dollar (USD/AUD). Today seemed like an opportune time to look at this cross and to figure out where it is headed using our “Trade Triangle” technology.

We’re also using MarketClub’s Fibonacci tool. If you have not seen this tool in action, I strongly recommend that you watch today’s video.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Economist Nouriel Roubini on Thursday refuted reports that he had improved his economic outlook, saying his comments at an investors conference earlier in the day were taken out of context. “I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010,” Roubini said in a statement.

Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out of the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year-end — as I have consistently predicted — it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper — in terms of cumulative GDP contraction — than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.

I have also consistently argued — including in my remarks today — that while the consensus predicts that the U.S. economy will go back close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1% in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%.

I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year: on one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession, as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long-term interest rates (because of concerns about medium term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation) and thus would lead to a crowding out of private demand.

While the recession will be over by the end of the year, the recovery will be weak, given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector; and now there is also a massive releveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation.

Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks, the labor market is still very weak: I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such [a] large unemployment rate will have negative effects on labor income and consumption growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures.

So, yes there is light at the end of the tunnel for the U.S. and the global economy; but as I have consistently argued. the recession will continue through the end of the year, and the recovery will be weak and at risk of a double dip, as the challenge of getting right the timing and size of the exit strategy for monetary and fiscal policy easing will be daunting.

Now for the $725 "HOT" Stock Tip. Another leading newsletter is
offering to give the name of this new Gold Find the 7th largest
Gold deposit in North America. Surrounded by some very compelling
and excellent copywriting that I have seen, you are drawn into the
story about renegade geologist and his team have uncovered one of
the largest gold reserves in North America – over $10 billion dollars
worth.
All is now in place to begin mining the earth and getting the gold out
of the ground and the mine into production. Equipment is already bought
and being delivered. What’s even better is that this is an opportunity
that where this small company has so much gold that it’s about become a
mid-size gold producer in record time.
One thing I can tell you is this... The best time to "buy" gold is
before a single ounce comes out of the ground... while the shares
are still very cheap. Currently trading for around $6-$6.50, while
the gold alone is worth roughly $35 per share). Drum Roll Please... The name of the company Osisko Mining Corp. (OSKFF).
Enjoy and Good Investing! - jschulmansr
===============================================Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

· Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

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· When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault===============================================Nothing in today's post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell
any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational
purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s,
Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information
carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments.
– jschulmansr

Sorry, been so busy setting up things for Twitter and my other businesses. Hang in there with Gold and Precious Metals. With everything that is coming down, new regulations, audit of the Fed, and etc.; thing are getting tougher and tougher for those who are and have been manipulating the Gold and Silver Markets. They (the big 3) and others are trying to take advantage of this being a normally slow time in the Gold Markets and are trying to make the charts appear (from a technical basis), that the rally has ended. Please do not fall for this! Keep accumulating more shares of all the tiers of producers and explorers who are about to start production. If you are buying Bullion TAKE DELIVERY! I still predicting that we will see Gold at $1250 and Silver $25 by the end of this year. Hold On, Be Patient, Take Delivery, and use this Opportunity to continue accumulating. I will have a new tip either tomorrow or the weekend.

In the meantime you can follow me and the markets on Twitter. I Tweet quite often during the day at the following sites on Twitter below. I reciprocate all follows and friend requests. Here is what I have set up for you on Twitter, please follow all or at least the ones that interest you. I will be starting back to daily posts in the next few weeks. Here is my also a little about me and my latest profile on Seeking Alpha:

I am just a simple guy, I love Investing. Nothing better than making a trade and Winning. The Life of a trader is this Hours upon Hours of Boredom punctuated by moments of Sheer Elation or Sheer Terror! LOL!
I could bore you with how I have held every Series License from Stocks, Commodities, Bonds and Insurance at one time or another, how I have 25yrs. + trading experience. Or tell you tales of my greatness but bottom line, I love what I do and I love to share, learn from and teach other people. My definition of being successful is while you are climbing up the mountain of Success, you are also holding out your hands to those below, to help pull others up the mountain with you. I hope you enjoy my blog, Tweets, and that I am able to entertain, but at the same time help you. Enjoy and May God Bless You Richly and Abundantly!

Ever since the sentimentally unsustainable negative events of Q4, 2008, when gold simply exploded higher in ratio to over-played assets far and wide in a panicked rush for safety, the ancient monetary metal has been consolidating its relative gains. As noted at the time in NFTRH, this excessive reaction had to be worked off. Now, unfortunately for the unprepared and hopeful, it has been worked off. Forewarned is forearmed.

Dialing forward to today, we find a tired rally in nominal stock, commodity and low quality debt prices. We see a rising Gold-Silver ratio (GSR) and a US dollar not far above our ‘do or die’ support level of 78. See the free, albeit abbreviated issue of NFTRH(.pdf) for the monthly view of USD.

NFTRH held and added gold miners strongly throughout the process of gold’s impulsive rise in ratio to the things that are positively correlated to economies and rising human spirits. This, even as nominal gold stock prices imploded. Positions were added ‘all in and around’ a historic bottom and this trade has paid off quite well.

Okay, that is history. Now what?

We have been watching the GSR (among other indicators) tirelessly and its message for the markets has been actively bearish for about a month now. To review, when silver is rising relative to gold it indicates a willingness on the part of market participants to accept risk, to ‘play’. The GSR has been working like a more sensitive version of the VIX in recent years. Ah, but there is literally a world of ratios that can be used to advantage when attempting to gauge the winds of the markets.

In the chart included today we see gold in ratio to the Reuters CRB commodity index ($CCI). Even as many people micromanage nominal prices of asset markets, gold’s ratio to commodities tells a story of a bottom in the making, which of course tells a story of a top in the making in what NFTRH called ‘Hope 09’.

Let this short article serve as notice that gold’s consolidation vs. the assets of hope looks to be in its final stages. This is a bullish chart, and in this weekend’s NFTRH41, we will look at gold’s ratio to several other assets and markets. It is time to pay attention and it is time to get it right.

Markets travel in roundabout directions and cycles – both short and long term – must be endured. It is technical, sentiment and market ratio analysis that guides us through these cycles and keeps us on the right track. Please heed the above chart and consider what will happen when gold finishes consolidating the explosive ratio gains of 2008.

===================================================

My Note: If you payed attention and I know my readers did, it is time to buy Gold now, the consolidation is almost over. This means Gold and Precious Metals are about to resume their rally and very soon! Once again, I am calling for Gold at $1250 and Silver at $25 by the end of this year. You are never hurt by getting in early, but definitely hurt by getting in too late or missing it altogether; Buy Precious metals in any form. If Bullion TAKE DELIVERY! -Good Investing! – jschulmansr

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

Well we made it to the weekend. as I said in my last post things are just too interesting to go away! I hope you took my last post to heart and didn’t jump in the next day when stocks went up. This is a sucker’s rally! We have some support levels as follows for the (DJI) 1st is at 8400, then 8250, 8000, 7500, then nothing until 6450 area. I think that this is what we will see, a second test of the 6450 level for the (DJI) over the next 6 months. Remember the fear factor is growing again, and the “green shoots” are starting to dry up.

One thing that few people have been talking about is how many people are now in negative equity in their homes and just can’t afford the mortgage payments and are starting to walk away from these homes and letting them (mortgages) default. Especially their 2nd homes and investment properties bought at the end of the real estate boom. Also, these are considered high grade loans, and default is growing along with the people (high risk) who couldn’t afford to buy the home in the first place!

Next, credit card debt, how many unemployed workers are living off their credit cards now and can’t afford to make the payments. Plus even those employed but thought they could continue to use their homes as ATM’s now find they just can’t make the payments. Credit Card Debt defaults are starting to grow exponentially! Yes, the other shoe is starting to drop!

Next, the Dollar is getting ready to swan dive again and if the amount of money that has been created by the treasury, has actually doubled the amount of dollars out there; then isn’t our dollars already really worth 50% less than at the beginning of the year. Yes, that is how much money they have printed just since the beginning of the year! On a side note; Russia is even in worse shape than we are in the U.S., so for the Forex traders out there here are 3 currency pairs I think will perform quite well. First for the russian situation, (USD/RUB), (EUR/RUB). This is the only Forex trade that you will see me recommend with the Dollar as long. For the Dollar, since I think it is going down, down, down; (EUR/USD). However a better trade would be to look at in my book the 2 best “resource countries” as opposed to the U.S.A. These would be (AUD/USD) and (CAD/USD).

Precious Metals, my outlook is still the same; for Gold and Silver stay long buy more any form. Experts state you should have 10%-15% in Precious Metals. For optimium financial health in my opinion you should have 50%-60% or more in Precious metals just to protect yourself from either Inflation or Deflation and what is going to happen to the dollar. The new base range for Gold and the strong support is $890 – $920. On the upside $950 the 1st battle, then $980, then $1000. However, confirmation of the bull breakout will occur in my book after a few successful closes over $955. I am calling for Gold to be at $1250 – $1500 by the end of the year. Don’t forget China and Russia are buying Gold to hedge their currency and US Debt holdings. The IMF sale … forget that China alone will santch that up in a heartbeat, it’s a drop in the bucket!

My Gold stock tip is this Apollo Gold (AGT). I have been buying this since the 10cent level and it is currently trading in the 45 cent level. The company just produced it’s first gold (3000 oz.) less than a month ago. The comapny also just announced another “high grade” hit 13oz gold/ton find on an adjacent property close to it’s producing mine and mill. Wesites to check out on Apollo Gold.

Now for the $997 “Hot Stock Tip” There is a newsletter right now offering a special report on this hot stock if you join them as a subscriber for only $997. You get it here on Dare Something Worthy Today Too! for Free!

It is for a new treatment of cancer especially Prostate Cancer. It is a non invasive procedure, no chemo, no side effects, very effective. Remember, when we used to watch Star Trek and Dr. McCoy used to have an instrument the operated with a beam and performed the surgery with success? That is what they are using right now. It is the Cyber-Knife. It works by Proton Beam therapy. It focuses a beam of protons that directly hit the Cancer tumor without affecting the surrounding body. The company who makes the machine almost has more orders than it can handle, with more starting to pour in. Clinical trials were held and the results just came back as extremely favorable! I could go on and on but I would rather you check it out for yourself. So I will provide some links for you. The name of the company is Accuray Inc. and it produces the Cyberknife. Stock Symbol (ARAY) and is trading in the $6.80 range currently. It IPO’d at $35 then the Markets got trashed and so did this stock and saw a low of $3.80. It has been slowly climbing back from that, recently hitting a high of $9.00 and now experiencing a normal retracement getting ready in my opinion to go over the next year back into the $20-$30 range. This treatment really works and the clinical trials results were what the company had been waiting for. This is the next step cutting edge technology to remove cancer tumors. The company website and a few other sites so you can research this for your self…

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just Click on the Links Below…

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

===================================================

That’s it for now, sorry about the delay but if you saw and meet my Granddaughter Sophia you’d understand why the delay for my post. Have a Great Weekend! – Good Investing! – jschulmansr

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or any other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

Yes, I almost did! However things are just getting too interesting. Unemployment up again and the market (DJI) is trying to rally, currently up 52 points! Unbelievable, when will reality sink in. We are stuck in a recession and the other “shoe” hasn’t even dropped yet. Don’t be fooled by this “suckers” rally! I hope you took out most of your profits on your non-resource related stocks, especially financials. I still stand by my claim we will see the (DJI) test 6500 again before we ever get to even 9000!

If you are into Forex here is a “gimme” Buy USD/RUB. My reason is simple, traders are starting to panic as Russia’s situation is growing worse. The world bank and the IMF have both stated the Russian economy is and will be stuck in recession for many years to come. As the traders unwind out of the Ruble they will go into US dollars. Don’t get me wrong I think the Dollar will continue to fall as the Fed and Bernanke are running out of ways to keep propping it up. I just think the Ruble will drop faster. Disclosure Long

For Gold and Precious metals. We have a perfect head and shoulders formation in place. If we break back thru $955 I think we have confirmation that Gold is going to mount it’s next attack at $1000 despite continued manipulation to artificially hold it down. Take deliver is the new Rally cry! Let’s catch them with their shorts down! Sorry, no pun intended!. Disclosure Long (Bullion and Stocks) Precious Metals.

Next as promised, here is my hot stock tip! (NGLPF) Nevada Geothermal Power. I like this stock for several reasons, first it is still “undiscovered by the street. Second, it is in the Alternate (Green) Energy Industry; so an Obama “darling”. Plus, their first power generation plant is ahead of schedule and due to come online in October of this year. It is currently tading in the 60-70cent range. I am buying all the way up to a $1 dollar level. This is another “buy and forget. I think it has the potential to be a 10 “bagger”. As always due your due diligence and read the prospectus before you ever invest. Disclosure Long

Finally, I receive no compensation for any stock I mention here, these are my own personal trades that I share from time to time. If I ever do start receiving compensation for reccomendations, I will disclose that immediately. Good Trading!- jschulmansr

Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets. Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially.

Serious questions effecting your portfolio still remain:

– Have we seen the Indexes bottom or top?
– Is a reversal in the near future?
– Is it too late to go short?

Stay on the correct side of the market. Let our Trade Triangle technology work for you. It’s free, It’s informative, It’s on the money.

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

My fellow Investors, lately I have been hearing rumors going round about how many so called “safe warehouse’s bullion depositories” are about to be or are in process of being audited. Exactly, to find out if they have all the Gold and Silver they are supposed to be holding for investors. I just received confirmation from a very reliable source today – Jim Sinclair himself! If there is anything even slightly amiss, a panic will ensue for sure. So in order to protect myself and you my readers, I am recommending that you take delivery now and immediately. Yes, even from “Comex approved” warehouses. I will include below the missive I received from Jim Sinclair today. Ps- One other thing this will help accomplish aside from the most important fact of self/wealth preservation, it will definitely cause a “short squeeze” in the Gold and Silver markets and catch the big 3 banks with their shorts down! (okay pun intended! LOL!).

Now for the markets, the (DJI) is right back where we were a few days ago. 8750 (DJI) is still the key with upward resistance the big 9000 and support at 8500. I hope you followed my advice and took out most of your profits. You will never get hurt taking profits and remember you can always jump back in if you pulled the profit trigger a little early. Ps- today’s action looked awfully like a key reversal and the start of the next down leg. Remember, Treasury yields are going higher, Russia, China, and Brazil have all announced they are selling US Treasuries for IMF Bonds. The Fed can only keep buying Treasuries with the help of the printing press. How inflationary will that be? Otherwise, they have to let the US Dollar crash, in fact I think they are going to do both until it is too late…

Gold and Silver have been both inching slowly upward after the correction caused by the big 3 banks and their huge short positions. Everyone please write the CFTC and every other regulatory agency to investigate and stop the blatant price manipulation occuring in the Gold and Silver Markets. For More Info of Gold Manipulation go to www.gata.org.

Keep accumulating – especially in Silver and Gold producers. I’ll have another sweet pick for you in a few days. Speaking of sweet picks did you see what happened with West Timmins Mining (WTMNF)? Hope you took advantage of my pick when I mentioned it here. Until the next time- Good Investing! – Jschulmansr

Schedule automatic tweets, Thankyou for following me messages and much more! Be More Productive- Free signup… TweetLater.com

==============================================

Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just Click on the Links Below…

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

“Nothing will unnerve the paper gold shorts more quickly and do more to undercut their confidence than to strip them of the real metal and force them to come up with more hard gold bullion to make good on deliveries. “Stand and Deliver or Go Home” should be the rallying cry of the gold longs to the paper gold shorts.” –Trader Dan Norcini

Dear Comrades In Golden Arms,

You know that information that comes to me has been reliable. You also know that the entire purpose of all of working here at JSMineset has been to get you through this safely. You also know that if we had not been here hundreds of thousands of people now holding gold would not be.

So please pay attention to the following.

I have heard rumors for some time, but today it was confirmed to me, that the Canadian mint’s present problems are not unique and that other depositories (vaults) have had an army of auditors descend on them in the last two weeks. Some of these depositories have names so famous that it would scare the hell out of you. The repercussions would be drastic if they turn out to be troubled.

Why take the risk?

I suggest to you now that you take delivery of all gold held in vaults and depositories on your behalf, but this time even from the most prestigious.

You can get delivery via armoured car service to your bank and utilize safe depository, spread over a few banks. You can insure your safe depository if you do not mind making your holdings public.

I believe that this recommendation is warranted, but also it will be the financial saviour of many.

The Gold, Silver, Oil & Nat Gas

Report

With so much happening in the market, emotions flying high and from being blinded by fear and greed many investors are wondering What do I do now?

I have put together some of my trading charts to help keep the overall picture clear for us commodity traders. My approach is very simple and effective when proper trading/money management is applied. FEAR and GREED are the two most powerful forces in trading and if you cannot stomach your trades when they go south, you most likely are trading to large of a position for your account size. Ok, I will try to stay on topic and not get into the education side of things J

The US dollar has had a massive rally considering the United States is in serious trouble. My thoughts are investors bought the USD as the entire planet started to crack thinking it was a smart investment. Which is could be a great play for the long term but I plan on covering that next week with monthly chart analysis for all these commodities.

I have heard a few analysts on CNBC say the US Dollar has broken its down trend. The question I am wondering is: What time frame are they looking at? The daily chart looks strong but if you zoom out and look at the weekly or monthly chart, we have not even made a higher high yet. Everyone sees the market differently that’s for sure.

The US Dollar – Head & Shoulders, Knees then ToesThis chart shows a perfect head and shoulders pattern which made a text book breakout. To keep this report short and to the point, the USD is at support and I expect we will see a rally higher to the 84 – 88 levels which would complete a larger head and shoulders pattern on the monthly chart. A breakdown from the monthly head and shoulders would most likely start the next major leg lower. The USD could rise here, thus pull the price of gold and silver down temporarily and that is why I have locked in some profits on these commodities.

The Price of Gold – Daily GLD Fund

Gold is currently pulling back from resistance and in my opinion forming the right shoulder which will complete this reverse head and shoulder pattern. Last week I took some profit on my gold position and currently hold a core position hoping prices will hold at my next support trend line. If prices breach that level ($91) then I will exit the balance of my position and wait for the next low risk setup.

The Price of Silver – Daily SLV Fund
Silver is in the same position as gold. I am expecting a pullback for a re-entry.

The Price of Oil – Daily USO Fund
Oil has been on the run since May. Oil had a near perfect breakout/buy signal (Risk was over my 3% risk setup) but many traders took advantage of this signal and are now experiencing massive gains. Tighten stops to lock in some profits and let the rest ride until the next support trend line is breached which will provide more wiggle room for oil to take a breather before moving higher again.

The Price of Natural Gas – Daily UNG Fund
Last week I provided the weekly charts with analysis of all these funds. UNG was the one that really looked exciting. On the weekly charts its very similar if not identical looking to the price action that oil had before it sky rocketing. This chart looks like a spring coiling tightly and getting ready to explode. Only time will tell but keep it on your trading platform!

Trading Conclusion for Gold, Silver, Oil & Nat Gas

In short, the US Dollar is trading at support and could be starting a nice rally to form the second shoulder which can be seen on the monthly chart. If this happens I expect gold and silver will have some selling pressure.

Oil continues to rally and short term traders should be thinking about tightening their stops to lock in some gains on the first sign of a reversal.

Natural Gas looks locked and loaded for a big bang. I’m waiting for my signature setup before jumping onboard as it helps improve the odds of the trade going in my direction after I enter a position.

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

Here We Go Again! (DJI) Key make or break point 8750. The rah rah is working partially and so stocks continue to creep up. However after looking at Gold, Oil, and Treasuries we have to ask what is really about to happen. Here’s my take in one word… Inflation. Now let’s make that word a little bit more truer… Hyper-Inflation! Yes, my readers that is what is about to come up. You may now just be starting to hear the mainstream press talking about inflation fears, but still they have their heads in the sands and are going on ad nauseum about the glimmers of recover and how were are in a new Bull market for stocks. The only real Bull Market for Stocks are in the hard assests sectors i.e. Gold, Silver, Oil, and the like. Oh, don’t get me wrong, I think the (DJI) will make another stab at 9000 if it can successfully break thru the (DJI) 8750, (S&P 500) 975. Failure here means the beginning of the downward spiral all the way down to (DJI) 6500 again. The Dollar is doomed and is already on the way down. Just think what happens to your purchasing power with the Dollar going down and inflation kicking in? Definitely not a pretty picture!

Now for Gold and Silver is there any doubt? To the moon Alice! Do yourself a favor take your profits out now in Stocks and put them into hard assets. The reason is simple, they tried to manipulate the prices yesterday by taking huge short and driving Gold down to $960 level. Then look what happened today Gold came screaming back. Gold will take out the $1007 barrier! There will be resistance and more huge short positions taken around $990 in a last vain attempt/manipulation to hold Gold back, but it will fail. Remember to preserve the purchasing power of your dollar is to buy Gold and Silver, especially Silver NOW! Get aboard the Precious Metals train now, it is leaving the station… Good Investing! – jschulmansr

Today only One Article – I know you just can’t wait for the Hot Tip, so if in a hurry scroll down to bottom/end of post. But then COME back and read this article and click on the links within the article to learn what is really going on with Precious Metals price manipulation. -jschulmansr

First of all, bullion-ETFs soak-up billions of investor-dollars each year, which would otherwise be invested in real bullion, or in the shares of precious metals miners. Naturally, this has helped to depress the price of silver, and severely depress the price of silver miners – since almost all of the diverted investor-dollars were diverted from the miners, and not bullion, itself. I also showed how these fraudulent investment vehicles have been used to artificially inflate the supposed inventory-levels of silver stockpiles.

Specifically, at a time when actual silver inventories are at their lowest level in centuries, the (supposed) amount of “bullion” these funds claim to hold has singlehandedly resulted in “official” inventory levels tripling in just three years – after plunging by 90%.

Today’s market price is based upon these phony “inventories” despite the fact that the bullion-banks who claim to hold all this silver are never subjected to audits, to determine that they are not only holding enough silver to cover their custodial agreements with the “bullion-ETFs” – but are also holding sufficient silver to cover the MUCH larger “short” positions of these Manipulators (see “Silver Manipulation the worst in history – Ted Butler”).

Unless and until there is such a full and complete audit, the only rational assumption for investors is this supposed “tripling”of inventories is totally illusory, which also means that the “bullion” that is claimed to be held by these bullion-ETFs is also illusory.

As I have also mentioned before, it is elementary economics than any “good” which is undervalued will be over-consumed (relative to its current price). Thus, we have TWO extremely important dynamics which are setting up this sector for a final “implosion” of the criminal conspiracy by the anti-precious metals cabal.

First, price-suppression means the (actual) tiny inventories of silver are still declining not increasing. It is simply absurd to claim that with record, investment demand and declining mine production (due to the dramatic cuts in base metals production) that inventories are increasing. The under-pricing of silver simply confirms this trend.

Secondly, with real inventories only 1/3rd of what is claimed by the Manipulators, continuing to under-price silver (through continued manipulation) must result in a supply “squeeze” which inevitably causes the price to “spike” (and begin to correct toward some sort of medium-term equilibrium). Given that there has been no similar depletion of gold stockpiles (merely the transfer of ownership), it is far more likely that the final defeat of the anti-gold cabal will be accomplished via a default in silver markets.

The BIG question in the minds of all precious metals “bulls” is when and how will this final victory occur?

Many commentators have pointed to the rigged Comex markets in New York as the place where the final destruction of the Manipulators will occur. However, with the short positions of the bullion-banks, and their (supposed) “custodial agreements” with the bullion-ETFs being “two sides of the same coin”, then implosion could originate in either component of this fraudulent manipulation.

A bullion-default at the Comex (or “Crimex”, as some like to call it) is a very simple scenario. The Comex is essentially selling its phony, “paper” futures for less than any other bullion market. Thus, at some point, large buyers will simply step into this market and continue relentless, heavy buying until default occurs.

Specifically, there would be a “failure to deliver” of bullion to a buyer (or buyers) – who chose to hold their futures contract until expiry, and thus take “physical” delivery of real bullion. As has been reported by several commentators, apparently such a default nearly occurred just weeks ago (see “Did ECB save Deutsche Bank from Comex gold-default?”).

There has been a great deal of frustration among the “gold bugs” (in particular) that such a final “show-down” has not already taken place. However, perhaps we would all be more patient in this respect if we were to try to put ourselves in the position of such big “players”.

Looking at silver, based on fundamentals, it is totally obvious that silver is headed for a spectacular explosion in its price. At a time of record demand for gold and silver, there are lower inventories of silver (relative to gold and in absolute terms) than at any time in centuries. Simultaneously, the gold/silver price ratio is more unfavorable for silver than at nearly any time in history, currently over 60:1. The long-term price ratio (over thousands of years) is 15:1. Additionally, as “elements” in the Earth’s crust, silver is only 17 times as plentiful as gold. Thus, a 60:1 ratio is not remotely sustainable, even over the medium term.

Therefore, armed with the knowledge that investing in silver will yield a huge windfall for all long-term investors, do you (as a large “player” in the silver market) force the inevitable implosion now (and “kill” the proverbial “goose that lays the silver eggs”) – or, do you patiently use the Manipulators game against them: buying as much grossly undervalued silver as you can from these criminals, before their inevitable self-destruction?

From this perspective, it is suddenly much less automatic that the demise of the Manipulators will occur at the Crimex.

I would remind people about an event which went practically unreported last year in North America: at the time of AIG‘s near-bankruptcy, the European bullion-ETFs “guaranteed” by AIG briefly plunged in value – to a price MUCH lower than the nominal price of the bullion they (supposedly) held. The reason? Investors were “betting” in a clearly visible manner that if AIG was forced into bankruptcy it would not be able to honour its “custodian agreements” with these bullion-ETFs – leaving the investors in these funds holding paper and not bullion.

Thus, the outrageously expensive bail-out of AIG (over $180 BILLION, and counting) was not undertaken solely in order to secretly funnel roughly $10 billion into the vaults of Goldman Sachs. It was also bailed-out to prevent a domino-like chain of events. All it will take is for one “bullion-ETF” to default, and then the entire scheme/scam of the Manipulators would inevitably collapse.

The sequence of events is obvious: after seeing one group of bullion-ETF investors wiped-out (or nearly so) by fraud, then obviously the unit-holders for all (so-called) bullion-ETFs would demand thorough and honest audits of the bullion-banks who are essentially running these scams.

Even if the bullion-banks could scrounge-up enough bullion to cover their “custodial agreements”, there would be little if anything left over to “cover” their much larger “short” positions. With “blood in the water”, futures-buyers would obviously immediately start lining up for “delivery” at the Crimex – hoping to be the last buyer to grab some real bullion before the Manipulators were completely wiped out.

Thus, there appear to be three very plausible scenarios leading to the destruction of the Manipulators, and the explosion of the price of gold and silver.

The frequently-predicted default at the Comex;

The bankruptcy of one (or more) of the bullion-banks; or

A default of one or more bullion-ETFs through a thorough audit being performed.

Given what the U.S. government has already shown it was willing to spend to “defend” AIG’s custodial agreements with bullion-ETFs, the second scenario would appear to have the least probability of occurring. However, there is still somewhere close to a quadrillion dollars of derivatives floating around in Wall Street’s private “casino”. Any surprise-implosion of a position in this market could create such unimaginable losses (hundreds of times higher than those of AIG) that a bail-out would simply be impossible to ram-through the corrupt, U.S. government – without literally setting off a second “American Revolution”.

Personally, I see the default of the bullion-ETFs to be slightly more likely than any other scenario for destroying the Manipulators. As with any scam, the larger it grows, the greater the likelihood of exposure. When bullion-ETFs were first created, their claim that they could buy infinite amounts of bullion, with zero “premiums” and store all this bullion for zero storage costs attracted little attention.

With the holdings of these bullion-ETFs rapidly approaching the total annual production of precious metals miners, and already being larger than the national stockpiles of almost every nation on Earth, this obviously-suspect “business model” will attract increasing doubt and skepticism among informed investors – until even blind/deaf/dumb “regulators” are forced to conduct a reputable audit of this sector.

For those hoping to read precisely when and where the Manipulators will meet their final defeat, I suppose you will be disappointed. Sorry, but I’m an “economist” – not a “psychic”. However, hopefully readers will derive some use out of this commentary.

First, because of depleted inventories, it is much more likely that it will be a silver default which “kills” the Manipulators, instead of a gold default. Secondly, as precious metals investors wait for this inevitable occurrence, you are reminded that there are three potential developments to watch for – and not just a “failure to deliver” at the Comex.

In the meantime, any/every investor who continues to add to his (or her) precious metals positions (preferably during short-term dips) is guaranteed to be richly rewarded. Given the extremely uncertain times in which we live, the reward of financial security is “precious”, indeed.

Disclosure: I hold no position in bullion-ETFs.

===================================================

One last note- I didn’t forget my promise, here is another HOT stock to buy and forget (hold). (WTMNF) a junior explorer West Timmins Mining. Currently trading in the .70 to .80 cent level. I have mentioned before load up on the junior and mid-tier Precious Metals Producers, but to throw in some good exploration companies. West Timmins fits in the latercategory. They have the financing in place and are currently drilling. Here is a copy of one of their press releases from May 12th, 2009. I think it speaks for itself. -Good Investing! -jschulmansr

(Vancouver, May 12, 2009) – West Timmins Mining Inc. (WTM:TSX) (“WTM” or the “Company”) today announced that bonanza grade gold mineralization has been intersected from the North Zone on its 100% owned Thorne Property, part of the Company’s West Timmins Gold Project, in Timmins, Ontario. All three holes testing the North Zone returned high-grade gold mineralization, highlighted by hole GS09-31 which returned 8.20 metres (26.90 feet) grading 13.64 g/t (0.40 oz/ton) gold, including 2.40 metres (7.87 feet) grading 41.30 g/t (1.20 oz/t) gold.

“The North Zone adds another zone of high grade gold mineralization over significant widths on our 100% owned property package in Timmins. These results continue to confirm the presence of multiple high grade gold zones located in close proximity to each other in the West Timmins District. This clustering of high-grade gold zones is perhaps the single most significant characteristic of the Timmins Camp. History does appear to be repeating itself in the west end of the Camp” said Darin Wagner, President and CEO of West Timmins Mining. “WTM will immediately expand the scale and scope of our drill program on our 100% owned properties in Timmins and welcomes the recently announced expansion of the drill program on the adjacent Thunder Creek Joint Venture.”

WTM now has six expanding zones of high-grade gold mineralization located within 3 kilometres of each other in the West Timmins District: the Rusk and Porphyry Gold Zones on the Thunder Creek Joint Venture, the High-grade and Central sub-zones within the Golden River West Zone, the Hwy 144 Zone where high-grade intercepts have recently been reported and now confirmation of continuity and bonanza grades from the North Zone.

The North Zone is located along the northern flank of the Golden River Trend on WTM’s 100% owned Thorne Property. Historic work in the North Zone area has been re-interpreted based in large part on the recent discoveries of high-grade gold mineralization on the Company’s adjacent Thunder Creek Property and within the Golden River West Zone. This work has lead to the identification of a steeply plunging zone of high-grade gold mineralization. The North Zone mineralization is characterized by silica veining and flooding associated with significant visible gold mineralization and is very similar to many of the vein-style gold deposits in the Timmins Camp. Drilling has also intersected additional gold bearing structures beneath the North Zone, the NL1 and NL2 structures, which remain open for additional testing – again characteristic of gold systems in the Camp.

On-going exploration activities are focussing on the area between the Timmins West (now Timmins) gold deposit and the Destor-Porcupine Fault, located 5.0 kilometres to the south, where multiple gold-bearing systems have been confirmed within WTM’s extensive West Timmins Project land holdings. The Destor-Porcupine Fault is a deep-seat fault system which can be traced throughout the entire Timmins Camp.

Quality Control and Assurance

Geochemical results reported are from halved drill core samples collected from WTM’s 100% owned Thorne Property, part of the Company’s West Timmins Gold Project. Core samples were collected by employees and consultants in the employ of the Company and are subject to the Company’s quality control program. Sampling was conducted on site at the Company’s exploration office in Timmins, Ontario and sealed samples were transported to Swastika Labs preparation facilities in Swastika, Ontario. Samples were assayed for gold by standard fire assay- ICP finish with a 30 gram charge. Gold values in excess of 3.0 g/t were re-analyzed by fire assay with gravimetric finish and intercepts returning in excess of 8.0 g/t, or displaying visible gold mineralization, were re-analyzed by pulp screen metallic assaying for greater accuracy. The remaining half of the drill core is stored on-site at the Company’s Timmins exploration office.

For quality control purposes blank, duplicate and analytical control standards were inserted into the sample sequence at irregular intervals. Mr. Darin Wagner (M.Sc., P.Geo), the Company’s President, has acted as non-independent qualified person for this news release. The qualified person has visited the project site, examined the intervals reported and, has verified that any significant analytical discrepancies have been resolved and that the reported results meet the Company’s quality control standards.

About West Timmins Mining Inc. (www.westtimminsmining.com):

WTM is focussed on the exploration and development of district-scale gold projects in the major gold camps of North America. The Company is advancing the high-grade Rusk and Porphyry Gold discoveries on its Thunder Creek joint venture in Timmins, Ontario and continues to test the nearby 5.0 kilometre long Golden River Trend. WTM also has active gold exploration projects in Mexico, highlighted by the high-grade Lluvia de Oro gold-silver Project in Chihuahua State. West Timmins Mining is based in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada and trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol WTM.

On behalf of the Board of

West Timmins Mining Inc.

“Darin W. Wagner”

Darin W. Wagner

President and Chief Executive Officer

For further information contact:
John Toporowski, Manager, Investor Relations

The TSX has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or adequacy of this news release, which has been prepared by management.

For further details on West Timmins Mining Inc. please refer to prior disclosure at www.sedar.com. The securities described in this press release have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under any U.S. state securities laws, and such securities may not be offered or sold in the United States absent an exemption from such registration requirements.

This press release contains forward looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and U.S. securities regulation, including statements regarding the future activities of the Company. Forward looking statements reflect the current beliefs and expectations of management and are identified by the use of words including “will”, “expected to”, “plans”, “planned” and other similar words. Actual results may differ significantly. The achievement of the results expressed in forward looking statements is subject to a number of risks, including those described in the Company’s annual information form as filed with the Canadian securities regulators which are available at www.sedar.com. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance upon forward looking statements.

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

Wow! Stocks continue to hang tough with perhaps some manipulation late Friday at the close to help kickstart todays big spike upward. So here we are again, $8750 (DJI) is big key test, failure here and we will then start the much needed retracement in stocks. There still is a bit of more room upwards to get to the 68% retracement band. I would definitely recommend pulling your stops up tight and maybe consider locking some more of your profits. This market movement has the feeling of a head and shoulders pattern and at the tip of the middle of the “W”. The wave extended itself from a 3 wave intermediate wave to a 5 waver. Be careful, very careful here as gold, oil, and the bond markets are all telling us the “other shoe is about to drop.

For Gold, hanging tough at this level and think we’ll see a push up into the $1000 level again as early as this week. Hi- Ho Silver! Love it! Hope you all bought (CDE) when I told you to. Even now with the 10-1 reverse definitely a long term profit machine! Keep accumulating, especially among junior and mid-tier producers. Many still selling for book or slighly above. Make sure have current or are about to begin production. I would also throw in a few explorer’s for good measure. Same thing for Oil producers, find those with decent production as they will have some very tempting takeover plays.