An Empirical Estimation of Effects of Priority Forestry Programs on Farmers’ Incomes in China

【摘要】：China has launched six Priority Forestry Programs (PFPs) since 1998, i.e. the Natural Forest Protection Program, the Cropland Conversion to Forest and Grassland Program, Sandification Control Program for the Vicinity of Beijing Tianjin , Wildlife Conservation and Nature Reserve Development Program, Forest Industrial Base Development Program and Shelterbelt Development Programs for regions such as Three North and the Yangtze River Catchments. The Government of China has made different policies for these PFPs, such as subsidies, low-interest loans and revenue offsets. Using a fixed-effect model and panel data from 2 353 households in 9 counties of Sichuan, Hebei, Shaanxi, and Jiangxi provinces, this paper studies effects of PFPs on farmers’ incomes. The empirical results indicate that the effects of PFPs on farmers’ incomes are mixed. Overall, the impact of Conversion of Cropland to Forestland and Grassland Program is significantly positive, whereas that of the Natural Forest Protection Program and the Sandification Control Program around Beijing Tianjin is negative. To a lesser extent, the Shelterbelt Development Programs have a positive impact. In the meantime, different effects of PFPs on farmers’ incomes are also mixed for different provinces and different households are also mixed.