We’ll start the big live-blog at around 8pm; in the meantime, be a dear and check out some of that Oscar coverage above, because we worked very hard on it. Oh, and here’s our official picks and predictions, but if it’s just too much hard work for you to click over there and read them, here’s the list of our predictions (not always, it must be stressed, our actual picks), which we’ll track for accuracy throughout the night:

See you in a half hour. Or more. Or less. IT’S UNPREDICTABLE.
7:55- Here’s the fashion-y stuff, in a nutshell, courtesy of the people I’m watching the Oscars with who actually understand such things: Rooney Mara looks weird, Viola Davis looks awesome, Michelle Williams looks AH-MAZING, Kristen Wiig looks adorable, and “everybody must watch out for armpit fat.” ALSO: “How old is George Clooney’s mom?” (The consensus is that she’s somehow younger than him.)

7:59- If you’re wondering, Michelle Williams is at the Oscars with Busy Phillips, who she’s been friends with since they co-starred on Dawson’s Creek. Busy played Pacey’s girlfriend. This is information that all came off the top of my head, without the help of the Internet. #Wasted Youth

8:00- Hang on, it doesn’t start for ANOTHER HALF HOUR? Gah, they fool me like this EVERY YEAR. Must drink more. Back later.

8:05- Bradley Cooper, rocking the porno ‘stache.

8:15- Shut up about the children, Sandra Bullock.

8:17- Hey you guys, Billy Crystal is already being “funny,” on Twitter! “Opening number changed. War Horse broke his leg, had to put him down.” OH IT’S GOING TO BE A VERY LONG NIGHT.

8:22- Natalie Portman is happy about Crystal, because he “won’t be mean.” Won’t be funny either!

8:25- Hey you guys, Brian Grazer and his insane hair are here too!

8:28- Remember last year, when a high James Franco and a flop-sweating Anne Hathaway hosted the Oscars? That was weird.

8:31- OH LOOK THE SHOW IS STARTING TIME TO START DRINKING EVEN MORE HEAVILY.

8:33- Oh yay, the thing where Billy puts himself in the movies. No expiration date on this bit, Bill!

8:37- Billy’s monologue. Good time to balance your checkbook, clean the catbox, whatever needs to get done around the house.

8:38- And his first joke lays an egg. LONG NIGHT, FOLKS.

8:39- “Texting at the movies” passes for edgy subject matter at this Oscar ceremony.

8:40- And he’s singing the Oscar nominees. Glad Mr. Crystal didn’t hurt himself coming up with any new ideas this year! But seriously, this is painfully awkward and unfunny.

8:42- It’s nice when they cut away to the audience, so we can witness dozens of people with a polite smile frozen on their faces simultaneously!

9:03- Sandler: “Can I please do that? And then can I play myself and my twin sister?”

9:04- Commercials time! Let’s find what people funnier than me are saying on the Twitter:

@MarkHarrisNYC: And now, a montage explaining that going to movies has been incredibly inspiring for white people.
@PattonOswalt: Seriously, was the theme of that last montage, “Hey, movies…right?”
@pajiba: Later in the show, a montage of all the montages so far.

9:08- It’s nice that even though Nicole Kidman’s not here, she sent her frozen face on Sandra Bullock.

9:11- Credit where due: the Super Tuesday joke gets my first smile of the night from Mr. Crystal.

9:12- Okay, look, maybe it’s not right, but we would love it if Melissa won. (That clip had more laughs than Crystal’s entire ten minutes.)

9:14- Another no-brainer: Octavia Spencer wins for The Help.

9:16- More commercials! Back to the Twitter:@JeremyMonjo: The Help made me so sad, because if those people back then had only seen Crash, all of that racism could have been avoided.@KagroX: I was told Iran was at least five years away from Oscar capability.@MissBrittHayes: Octavia, you already have a trophy. Have you SEEN your boyfriend?!

9:20- Billy’s right– Ghettoization is HILARIOUS!

9:22- I want to like this bit with the Christopher Guest rep company more than I actually do.

9:26- And they were apparently surprised as well! You guys, c’mon, even if you’re a long shot, at least work up the speech. (“Let’s get out of here” was a nice touch.)

9:27- And now it’s time for the Sound awards that are impossible to tell apart! Hugo wins the first of ’em.

9:28- We like it when they hold their Oscar like a baby.

9:29- Sound Mixing. TOTALLY DIFF CATEGORY, YOU GUYS.

9:30- The depressing thing about these categories is that they allow Transformers movies to get Academy Award nominations. Oh, also, Hugo wins again.

9:31- How can the Cirque performance be “memorable” before it’s even happened? Anyhow, commercials, and Tweets:@JBSteins: Rooney Mara cracks a wide smile before remembering she’s not allowed to express emotion on this perennial Lisbeth promo tour.@SteveMartinToGo: Comedy never wins. Dramatic poop scene wins over comedy poop scene.@Ugarles: Sound Mixing wasn’t allowed during the era of The Help.@tvoti: Guys, I liked Hugo, too, but let’s simmer down and give Transformers 3 the awards it so richly deserves.

9:35- Now that we’re in a commercial, I should say a nice thing! And it’s this: I really like this thing where the actors and stuff talk about how great the tech nominees are– OH WAIT NEVER MIND MUPPETS MUPPETS MUPPETS!

9:37- And as you’re watching this, just remember: they left this in, but they wouldn’t let the Muppets and Jason Segel do their Best Original Song nominee.

9:40- Well, that happened.

9:42- At least Crystal knows what their demo is!

9:43- Were Robert Downey Jr. and Gwyneth looking to create the most awkward bit of the night?

9:44- Undefeated wins Best Documentary. I’m 1 out of 3 on predictions so far, but I don’t mind because OMG YOU GUYS THAT MOIVE IS SOOOO GOOD.

9:45- This team looks less like documentarians than a boy band.

9:46- Wow. Way to not thank the black kids your movie was about, white guys.

9:47- Holy crap, you guys, a funny comedian at the Oscars!

9:48- “AND THEN THEY GIVE ME A MILLION DOLLARS!” Biggest laugh of the night.

9:50- Commercial time! Sure, AT&T, everyone wants this thing instead of an iPad.@hodgman: I just tuned in. Is this Cirque Du Soleil’s tribute to ATLAS SHRUGGED PART 1?@ditzkoff: Maybe if Kermit had punched Miss Piggy in the face, the Muppets would have gotten TWO musical performances. #teambreezy@williambgoss: You know what this show needs? MOAR NOSTALGIA.@marcmaron: My gf just asked if Kermit had ‘work’ done.@GuyLodge: That Cirque du Soleil performance really did remind me of what I love about the movies. It’s not having to watch Cirque du Soleil.@david_cornelius: Remember when Billy Crystal showed up last year and made everybody think we wanted him back? Chris Rock’s doing that right now, but better.

9:54- Melissa McCarthy > Billy Crystal

9:55- Emma Stone is delightful. The End.

9:56- And Jonah Hill gets a bigger laugh from the audience than Crystal’s gotten on stage all night.

9:58- Visual Effects! They make movie magic happen! The Oscar goes to Hugo. Just moppin’ up in the tech categories. And we’re kinda fine with it.

9:59- It’s a dominating mother joke from Billy! These jokes killed in the Catskills.

10:02- Who picks these clips? I know, it’s hard to find a good twenty seconds out of an entire performance, but still…

10:02- Another non-surprise–both Plummer’s deserved win, and the standing O that followed it.

10:03- Oscars, listen to me now: YOU LET CHRISTOPHER TALK AS LONG AS HE WANTS TO.

10:06- Let’s go to commercial!@mattzollerseitz: One of the few pleasures of the Oscars is, you get to see how short most of the leading men really are.@BillCorbett: Emma Stone is on. At home, a naked Jim Carrey bellows and sacrifices a goat.@pattonoswalt: “I need to steal her ‘adorable.'” — Gwyneth, while watching Emma.@mattsinger: Christopher Plummer beats Max von Sydow for the Oscar. But can he beat him at chess?@daveweigel: BREAKING: Albert Brooks wins Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor, in my heart.

10:19- Yep, all two of the winners. Because the rest of the songs in The Muppets were just garbage, right?

10:20- And a Conchord is an Oscar winner! Yipee!

10:22- They’re distributing popcorn to the movie stars, like they do at the movies baseball games. And off to pay some bills.@sternbergh: This “What They’re Thinking” bit is like when at baseball games they focus on couples and make them kiss for our amusement.@williambgoss: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: all Artist acceptance speeches should be silent.@daveweigel: Why aren’t Flight of the Concords hosting? No work visas?

10:26- Consensus: Angelina Jolie is scary skinny.

10:27: Also, the way she’s standing is weird.

10:29- YOU GUYS DEAN PELTON JUST WON AN OSCAR!!!! And he’s totally making fun of Angelina. #win

10:30- Six right, two wrong on the predictions so far. Honorable?

10:31- Woody wins! Love it.

10:35- Here we go again! (They show a lot of commercials during the Oscars.)@aoscott: Payne: “If I ever won another Oscar….” nice promise to be able to keep to your mom!@JennyJohnsonHi5: My husband is coming un-fucking-glued at Reese Witherspoon for saying ‘Overboard’ was a good movie.@MeredithBlake: When did Robert Downey Jr. become so insufferable?@nathanrabin: Werner Herzog: OVERBOARD is also my favorite movie. I shall be remaking it next year in 3-D.

10:38- Hey, Milla Jovovich, you’re only in terrible movies–wanna come to the Oscars?

10:39- GET IT BECAUSE J. EDGAR WAS A TRANSVESTITE?

10:40- Okay, I’ve gone all night without mentioning it, because I’m wondering if it’s our television. But seriously, why is the sound so amateurish and terrible?

10:41- Best Live-Action Short goes to The Shore, so big ups if that’s the one you picked at random on your office Oscar ballot.

10:52- Missed the beginning of Crystal’s line about Michael Douglas. What did he say Douglas was before it was cool? A sex addict?

10:53 – Douglas gets a gold star for saying the name of the director of The Artist so well.

10:54- The Artist wins Best Director. And he’s there with the leading lady. Hmmmm…

10:56- Nothing like warmth in broken English. Nice speech.

10:58- We love these humanitarians and artisans so much, we’ll barely show them getting this award!

10:59- Oh how nice! They’re letting them stand from their seats!

11:01- GOOD LORD WHEN WILL THIS BE OVER@daily: ‘The Artist’ director Michel Hazanavicius wins for Most Spell-Checked Name of the #Oscars@tvoti: It’s good the Oscars were able to get a hold of the one picture of Terrence Malick@marcmaron: Queen Meryl! Bow, fuckers!@billmaher: U know the show is going slowly when they tease the Necrology package – ‘coming up, dead people!’

11:05- Appreciate the genuine sentiment, Mr. Crystal. But “telecast” really is an old dude word.

11:06- Ah, the “dearly departed” montage. Let’s see who they leave out!

11:07- Okay, just lost it for a moment when I remembered that we lost Sidney Lumet last year.

11:11- Hard to say much of anything funny after that montage, but:@RottenTomatoes: Ten bucks says Sacha Baron Cohen sneaks into the In Memoriam montage.@NonAnamorphic: No Ben Gazzara clip as Brad Wesley punching guys in the stomach or erratically driving to SH-BOOM-SH-BOOM?@danharmon: I don’t know man, I’m just saying, after 60, maybe call yourself “William.”

11:12- “I AM NOT CIA- I AM A MOTHER LOOKING FOR HER SON!” Hey guys, remember when Ashley Judd like, opened movies instead of starring on bad TV shows?

11:13- “People don’t know what you go through,” says Robert DeNiro, so BE NICE ABOUT KILLER ELITE YOU GUYS.

11:15- Um, I’m trying to think of a clever way to say NATALIE PORTMAN PRETTY.

11:16- Does anyone actually prefer this thing where the presenter blows smoke at each of the acting nominees instead of just running a good clip?

11:19- Look, we get it, he’s handsome. But when Pitt grows his hair that long, it always looks like he hasn’t washed it in like a month. Right?

11:20- And I got it wrong– Jean Dujardin wins, and gives a charming speech. Oh, for that 15-minute long ceremony…

11:23- Time to sell some more things!@BillCorbett: Natalie P’s testimonials have all the theatrical shine of an Omaha Knights of Columbus awards banquet.@nathanrabin: It’s so refreshing to finally see someone kiss famous celebrity’s asses.@williambgoss: Who do I hope voted for Gary Oldman? EVVVVVVERRRRRYYYYONNNNNEEE!

11:33- “Because I really understand that I’ll never be up here again.” I LIKE MERYL STREEP, DEAL WITH IT.

11:34- All right, Best Picture. Presented by Tom Cruse, IN SPITE OF GHOST PROTOCOL NOT BEING UP FOR IT. #RisingAbove

11:35- I was with this montage right up until War Horse popped up. BLERGH.

11:36- That aside, wow, great montage.

11:37- And The Artist wins Best Picture, to no one’s surprise. I’m slightly annoyed because it’s not the year’s best film, or even the best of these films, but I’m totally giving them a pass because Uggie is up on stage and he’s such a good boy!

11:38- So nice that Peter Lorre’s French son found work as a film producer!

11:39- One more favorite Tweet while the last speech goes:@olilyttelton: Actually, Jean Dujardin’s wrong: Billy Crystal did host the Oscars in 1929. And used many of the same jokes.