CFGIowa Weekly Economic Update October 14, 2013

HOPES FOR A DEBT DEAL EMERGE

After a Friday meeting with President Obama, GOP senators went to work on a bipartisan solution to both the federal budget and federal debt limit impasses, one that would lift the debt limit in exchange for spending cuts. House Republicans introduced a proposal last Thursday to raise the debt ceiling for 6 weeks contingent on budget negotiations. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said Friday’s talks produced “nothing concrete,” but Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) called the discussions “very useful” and thought they might lead forward. Hopefully, at least a short-term deal can be reached by the start of this week.1,2

NO SURPRISE: CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX SLIPS

The University of Michigan’s initial October consumer sentiment index came in at 75.2, which was a 9-month low. Still, that beat the 73.0 consensus forecast of economists polled by Briefing.com.1,3

NO TAX HOLIDAY THIS TUESDAY, IRS SAYS

If you filed Form 4868 with the IRS earlier this year, you must still send your federal tax return to the IRS with a postmark of October 15 or earlier. (Taxpayers in certain Colorado counties have until December 2 to file; most military personnel serving in war zones get an additional 180 days after departing the theater of combat to file.) The federal government shutdown did halt the release of the September Producer Price Index and September retail sales figures last week.1,4,5

DJIA RISES AS CAPITOL HILL NEGOTIATIONS PICK UP

The Dow climbed more than 300 points last Thursday en route to a 1.09% weekly gain and a Friday close of 15,237.11. The S&P 500 (+0.75% to 1,703.20) advanced for the week, though the NASDAQ (-0.42% to 3,791.87) did not.1

THIS WEEK: Monday is Columbus Day; banks are closed, but Wall Street is open for business. Tuesday is October 15, the federal tax extension deadline; Yahoo!, CSX, Citigroup, Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson and Intel issue earnings. Wednesday offers a new Federal Reserve Beige Book, a new NAHB Housing Market Index, earnings from eBay, PepsiCo, US Bancorp, Bank of America, BlackRock, American Express and IBM, and possibly the September CPI. Thursday is the deadline to raise the federal debt limit; September reports on housing starts and industrial output may arrive, and earnings from Verizon, Goldman Sachs, Google, Capital One and Chipotle will arrive plus the latest initial jobless claims report. The Conference Board comes out with its September leading indicator index Friday, and Morgan Stanley, Schlumberger, General Electric and Honeywell issue earnings reports.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+16.28

+14.34

+16.06

+5.75

NASDAQ

+25.58

+24.35

+12.99

+9.80

S&P 500

+19.42

+18.87

+17.88

+6.41

REAL YIELD

10/11 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.50%

-0.77%

2.97%

2.14%

Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 10/11/131,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

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This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.

The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) is a survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University of Michigan. The MCSI uses telephone surveys to gather information on consumer expectations regarding the overall economy.

NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services.

The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade.

Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards.

This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.