This will be Stansted's first ever scheduled nonstop link with India and the only passenger route connecting the Essex airport with Asia. It will also be the only direct flight between Amritsar and any London airport, adding a second UK service from the Punjabi city after its Birmingham service, operated by Air India since Feb-2018.

Much of the capacity gap left by Jet Airways in the UK-India market will have been filled by the end of winter 2019/2020, in spite of there being fewer airlines (although LCC entrants may start to appear). Moreover, the route network is starting to offer more choices.

Summary

UK-India weekly frequencies fell from 135 to 88 after Jet Airways' collapse, but will recover to 111 by late Mar-2020.

Before Jet Airways exited the market, it had reached a peak of 33 weekly UK-India frequencies in Mar-2019. This placed it third by frequencies, behind British Airways and Air India (although it was second only to BA on seat capacity).

In Mar-2019 the total UK-India market boasted its highest ever total of 135 weekly frequencies, a level maintained from Dec-2018 to Mar-2019. By early May-2019 there were only 88 weekly frequencies in the UK-India market (data source: OAG).

The reduction was mainly the result of Jet Airways' exit (in Apr-2019), but also reflected some seasonal differences between the winter and summer seasons (TUI Airways and Thomas Cook operated winter-only services to Goa).

Much of this increase, 15 frequencies, will have been driven by the Mumbai-London Heathrow route. British Airways took its frequency from twice daily to 18 times weekly in Jul-2019 and will step up to three times daily in late Mar-2020.

Virgin Atlantic will enter with a daily service at the end of Oct-2019 and Cathay Pacific plans to return to the route with one weekly flight from Mar-2020 (after a year's gap).

Jet Airways had operated a twice daily schedule for many years until increasing its frequency to three times daily at the start of winter 2017/2018. This took the total on the route from 36 to 43 weekly frequencies from then until Mar-2019. After Jet's demise the total fell to 21, but it is due to return to 36 by the end of Mar-2019.

Following the collapse of Thomas Cook, TUI is set to be the only operator on these two leisure routes this winter. However, Air India reportedly plans a Goa-London service to fill the gap left by Thomas Cook and Stansted could be the logical choice of airport at the London end.

TUI also previously operated between Goa and Birmingham (in winter 2017/2018 and winter 2018/2019), but has discontinued this service.

According to data from OAG, there will be 11 routes between the UK and India in the week of 23-Mar-2020 (see table below).

The biggest route by seats in that week of 23-Mar-2020 is Mumbai-Heathrow, with 9,300 seats, compared with 8,900 for number two Delhi-Heathrow, although both have 36 departing frequencies.

Prior to Jet's departure, both had 43 weekly frequencies. Mumbai-Heathrow was hit harder by Jet's demise, but as noted above, after falling to 21 frequencies it will restore parity with Delhi-Heathrow by late Mar-2020.

Air India's Amritsar-Stansted launch preempts flypop, which has been planning since 2016. While this now poses a competitive challenge for when flypop moves to its operational phase, it may also serve to prove the existence of demand on the route.

The Indian government plans to sell its stake in Air India, whose UK expansion coincides with a modest acceleration of its overall growth in recent years.

Virgin's Mumbai return covers the gap left by Jet on this route, but also marks the start of a more expansive phase beyond Virgin's core North Atlantic market. The airline is considering Indian cities such as Bangalore, Hyderabad and Amritsar, all of which have direct flights to the UK, and is also interested in securing a new Indian partner.

Virgin may also consider Kolkata, a destination also considered a possibility for British Airways. The city is India's seventh largest by population and the largest with no direct UK air service.

It looks as if the capacity gap left by Jet Airways in UK-India aviation will be filled relatively quickly, and with a wider choice of routes.

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