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Increased consumer spending and a recovery in the housing market will lift the U.S. out of recession in the second half of this year, according to a Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of private economists. Despite the upbeat sentiment, respondents also predicted an increase in unemployment in 2010. "Real GDP contracted very sharply during the first quarter of this year and will continue to shrink, albeit more slowly in the second quarter, before turning very modestly higher in the third and fourth quarters," according to the survey.

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A Chinese trade official warned that the country will take action to protect its steel producers if the U.S. goes ahead with an investigation of China's alleged dumping of steel pipes in the U.S. market. If the U.S. follows through on a complaint by U.S. steel producers and the United Steelworkers union, trade groups in China will "take up cudgels" on behalf of the country's steel producers, said a representative of the China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals and Chemicals Importers and Exporters.

A surprise expansion of exports and a sharp decline in imports combined to reduce the U.S. trade deficit from $36 billion in January to $26 billion in February, the Commerce Department reported. But experts were cautious about the reported growth in exports. John E. Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia, said he could accept the report as a possible indication of an improved trend, "but with a great deal of skepticism."

For the first time since the summer, some of the biggest pension funds in the U.S. are reporting improved funding from gains on investments, as well as from a rising discount rate that diminished liabilities. The latest monthly survey by Milliman, an actuarial and pension consulting firm, revealed that funding has improved by $48 billion among the nation's 100 largest pension funds.

Vehicle sales in China outstripped the U.S. for the third consecutive month, reaching about 1.1 million -- a record -- in March, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Chinese sales rose 5% compared with last year's figure, while sales fell 37% to 857,735 vehicles in the U.S.

Increased consumer spending and a recovery in the housing market will lift the U.S. out of recession in the second half of this year, according to a Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of private economists. Despite the upbeat sentiment, respondents also predicted an increase in unemployment in 2010. "Real GDP contracted very sharply during the first quarter of this year and will continue to shrink, albeit more slowly in the second quarter, before turning very modestly higher in the third and fourth quarters," according to the survey.