I basically went down the remaining SEC composite schedule and predicted each game. I think State would finish with a little better record but they have some tough road games left.

Nkemdiche4Heisman5

02-05-2009, 11:12 AM

Looks good to me. I think we can win 10 SEC games this year. We are hot and hopefully it carries into Vandy away. I think if we can pull that one out, we can have a good shot at LSU, but I don't see us winning that game in any possible way. I think we can beat UT, if the crowd gets into it like UK.

Rocky@theTop

02-05-2009, 11:57 AM

Looks good to me. I think we can win 10 SEC games this year. We are hot and hopefully it carries into Vandy away. I think if we can pull that one out, we can have a good shot at LSU, but I don't see us winning that game in any possible way. I think we can beat UT, if the crowd gets into it like UK.

don't you mean 'lack there of'? ;)

RailroadGin

02-05-2009, 12:02 PM

He didn't say the BIG crowd gets in to it. What few people are there are generally pretty loud.

Djshockley3

02-05-2009, 12:02 PM

Who do you think UGA will beat?

Dawg

02-05-2009, 12:07 PM

I don't see Ole Miss finishing above .500. That would be an amazing achievement if Kennedy can pull it off.

VandyChuck

02-05-2009, 12:09 PM

Who do you think UGA will beat?

Apparantly Vandy since we'll only win 2 games from here on out.

Personally (yes I'm a homer)...I think we'll win 2 games in the next 48 hours.

Vandy420

02-05-2009, 01:27 PM

I agree, we should beat both Bama and Ole Miss this week. We should take care of SC at home, and beat UGA. At the very least.

VandyChuck

02-05-2009, 02:03 PM

I agree, we should beat both Bama and Ole Miss this week. We should take care of SC at home, and beat UGA. At the very least.

And Arky at home, I would think...USC will be tough.

RailroadGin

02-05-2009, 02:22 PM

I don't see Ole Miss finishing above .500. That would be an amazing achievement if Kennedy can pull it off.

Well we have played most of our toughest games up front: @UF, @USC, @MSU, UK and we finished right at .500.

Personally (yes I'm a homer)...I think we'll win 2 games in the next 48 hours.

You might very well do that. But to this point in SEC, you haven't shown that much. Granted you have played one of the tougher SEC schedule to date so who knows.

kentubbybasketball

02-05-2009, 02:29 PM

How is anybody inclined to say they've played the toughest SEC schedule to date unless they are using RPI to back it up? I don't think anybody is that much tougher than anybody in this league for what it's worth?

Plus, in UK's case especially, it's not always about how tough your schedule has been, but how good your own team is. Right now, UK is 5-3, and those last 3 losses weren't even to the toughest team we've faced thus far. But, UK just hasn't been performing. If UK puts it together, we should be okay. I think that's the case for anybody in the second half.

I don't have time to look at the various 12 schedules though and predict how each team will fair. I will say Tennessee is my pick to win the SEC, and they've been my pick other than for a while during UK's 5-0 start.

RailroadGin

02-05-2009, 02:39 PM

How can someone be inclined to think that? Would you rather play Vandy at home or Florida on the road?

kentubbybasketball

02-05-2009, 02:48 PM

But, it's not come down to playing either A. Florida or B. Vandy. Everybody is at the halfway point in the SEC season basically. We all played around 8 games, so over the course of 8 games everybody has played some dreadful teams mixed in with some of the teams expected to be around the top of the SEC outright.

However, let's not confuse this with say Marquette backloaded Big East schedule where they are playing the elite tier Big East teams. The SEC is so balanced in my opinion, there is no elite tier. That's how a team goes from 5-0 to 5-3 in a matter of ten days.

Whatever KT, we're talking about likelihood of winning. Most people would say (and I understand you aren't most people) they have a higher chance of beating Ole Miss at home than going to Miss State and winning. Road games are generally harder to win. Then take into account who those games are against and you have a reasonable barometer for SOS in conference.

JRS

02-05-2009, 03:13 PM

We've basically reached the half way point of the SEC season. Now that we've seen what teams are capable of, how do you see things finishing out? These are the current standings:

I basically went down the remaining SEC composite schedule and predicted each game. I think State would finish with a little better record but they have some tough road games left.

That's probably about right, we'll see though.

kentubbybasketball

02-05-2009, 03:38 PM

Whatever KT, we're talking about likely hood of winning. Most people would say (and I understand you aren't most people) they have a higher chance of beating Ole Miss at home than going to Miss State and winning. Road games are generally harder to win. Then take into account who those games are against and you have a reasonable barometer for SOS in conference.

I understand all of that... what goes into strength of schedule and all that. I've been around college basketball enough these last few years to have a pretty reasonable understanding of it. But, nobody's gonna convince me that there is a reasonable gap between playing MSU and Ole Miss or Tennessee and South Carolina. The gaps between those teams isn't that wide.

I think the only team that isn't clustered around everyone else is Georgia... that's about the only guaranteed win on anybody's schedule at the moment. So, since the other 11 are all tight, I don't think you can look at one teams' SEC slate thus far as say it's leaps and bounds tougher than another team's.

That's just my opinion. I'd admit maybe our second half SEC slate is tougher than the first... but not by a lot at all.

Our RPI is 47 at this time. We've gotten most of our tough games out of the way: both games to UF, road games to LSU, UT, and UK. We still have games against UK and UT, but at least they're in the CLA. Road games versus MSU and Vandy will be tough (with Vandy moreso due to that crappy court atmosphere). We've still got our 2 with UGA, and a home game against struggling Arkansas. All 8 games left are winnable, IMO. If we go 5-3 the rest of the way, we'll be 21-8 heading into the SECT, and that's not too bad. But I'd like to see us do one or two games better, at least....

Odom never took us to a winning conference record in 7 years, and Horn looks to do that in his inaugural season. I know the SEC is a bit down this year, but that's still nothing to gripe about...

VandyChuck

02-05-2009, 04:25 PM

(with Vandy moreso due to that crappy court atmosphere).....

I'm fairly certain that the court is made of the same material that all other courts are made of.

I just checked with the Vandy SID and he says the goals are ACTUALLY 10 feet high as well.

kentubbybasketball

02-05-2009, 04:32 PM

If I were a USC fan, I'd be quietly happy with our season thus far, but I'd be a little cautious quite frankly. The three wins they are trumpeting Baylor, Kentucky, and Florida should have been losses and would have been up till the final 10 seasons. So, this team is 13 seconds away from being 3-5 in the SEC, and a few more seconds away from not having the Baylor win.

Hopefully, for their sake that luck doesn't run out. I still don't think USC has much depth inside, although Steed has been among the most improved guys in the SEC. I also think Downey plays a heavy dose of minutes, and it'll be interesting to see how he holds up by March, right along with Frederick.

ConwayGamecock

02-05-2009, 04:32 PM

I'm fairly certain that the court is made of the same material that all other courts are made of.

I just checked with the Vandy SID and he says the goals are ACTUALLY 10 feet high as well.

do you know what the word "atmosphere" means?

google is your friend.....

:)

RailroadGin

02-05-2009, 04:37 PM

KT- USC won bc they kept their composure. You make your own luck. UF broke down on defense- but USC had to execute and take advantage of it. Same goes for the other games. Good teams finish in crunch time and squeak out close games. Bad and mentally weak teams don't.

ConwayGamecock

02-05-2009, 04:38 PM

If I were a USC fan, I'd be quietly happy with our season thus far, but I'd be a little cautious quite frankly. The three wins they are trumpeting Baylor, Kentucky, and Florida should have been losses and would have been up till the final 10 seasons. So, this team is 13 seconds away from being 3-5 in the SEC, and a few more seconds away from not having the Baylor win.

Hopefully, for their sake that luck doesn't run out. I still don't think USC has much depth inside, although Steed has been among the most improved guys in the SEC. I also think Downey plays a heavy dose of minutes, and it'll be interesting to see how he holds up by March, right along with Frederick.

Luck had very little to do with it....there is a saying that talent makes their luck. Now, if USC had come back and beaten UF on Downey's heroic 3s, then I would agree that we were lucky there. But in ALL the above games you mentioned, USC battled neck-and-neck and toe-to-toe the whole way, and kept themselves in position to win those games. The opponents all could have made plays at the end that kept USC from winning, but instead, USC made the plays that won the games for us. That's not luck, that's being the better competitor in those games at their times.

Anything else is bitter woulda-coulda-shoulda's from the fans of the losing teams......

:)

ConwayGamecock

02-05-2009, 04:39 PM

KT- USC won bc they kept their composure. You make your own luck. UF broke down on defense- but USC had to execute and take advantage of it. Same goes for the other games. Good teams finish in crunch time and squeak out close games. Bad and mentally weak teams don't.

Or, this ^. Points your way.....

kentubbybasketball

02-05-2009, 04:42 PM

Luck had very little to do with it....there is a saying that talent makes their luck. Now, if USC had come back and beaten UF on Downey's heroic 3s, then I would agree that we were lucky there. But in ALL the above games you mentioned, USC battled neck-and-neck and toe-to-toe the whole way, and kept themselves in position to win those games. The opponents all could have made plays at the end that kept USC from winning, but instead, USC made the plays that won the games for us. That's not luck, that's being the better competitor in those games at their times.

Anything else is bitter woulda-coulda-shoulda's from the fans of the losing teams......

:)

I think luck very much had something to do with it, especially against Florida with that run out. I wish we were that "lucky" to catch a team napping down the stretch... USC did nothing to make UF lull on a play like that. That's why i say it was lucky, in addition to Calathes missing free throws in the closing minutes (similar to Stevenson a 74% FT shooter, missing some in the final 30 seconds).

Granted, Frederick was wise to start breaking toward his goal.. very wise against Florida. However, if Florida actually got back, he wouldn't have lucked into an open layup to close out a 1 point win.

Ultimatley, good teams place themselves in positions to make good on luck... but that's not an insult... UK has been "lucky" to win 7 national titles... anybody that wins has luck on their side at some point... it's the nature of being human and it being sport.

But, please realize I'm not bitter about USC's success. I predicted you'd be third and ultimately, that's where I expected you to be after 16 games.

ConwayGamecock

02-05-2009, 04:54 PM

well, based on your argument above, EVERY SEC team is "lucky" to have whatever wins, rankings, RPI ratings, and standing this season. Which places EVERY SEC team on the same page with USC, and their "lucky" wins. Which then makes all this moot to debate, in reference to my first comments in this thread.

;)

kentubbybasketball

02-05-2009, 04:56 PM

Uh, what I'm saying is what I said. You're not lucky if you beat somebody by 27 like Clemson did to Duke last night. That's not pure luck.

But, closing plays where you get a run out because the other team falls asleep is the definiton of luck in a clutch basketball game. You don't have to admit it, it's not an insult though. you won the game and that's what matters... but let's not act like USC wasn't lucky.

RailroadGin

02-05-2009, 05:02 PM

Do you honestly believe your own smoke, KT?

kentubbybasketball

02-05-2009, 05:05 PM

Yes, I do USC has been lucky. I wouldn't have said it had I not believed it. Maybe we're watching different plays, but UF not getting back on D had nothing to do with USC's capacity to win that game... that was UF's fault, not USC doing something out of this world.

ConwayGamecock

02-05-2009, 05:12 PM

I also think Downey plays a heavy dose of minutes, and it'll be interesting to see how he holds up by March, right along with Frederick.

I forgot to respond to this. This season Downey is leading the team in minutes per game by averaging 32.0 minutes a game. Last season, he averaged 37.4 minutes a game. So IMO, Downey will be fine.......meanwhile, Meeks leads UK with 34.1 minutes a game, and Patterson is averaging 33.0 mpg......If I was a UK fan, I'd be concerned about my top two stars breaking down come March....

;)

RailroadGin

02-05-2009, 05:13 PM

Beat me to it Conway. I love stats!

kentubbybasketball

02-05-2009, 05:17 PM

You don't think 32 mpg is a lot of minutes for one guy? BTW, I know Meeks plays a lot of minutes... that's not news to me, Pat too. Remember, I watch more UK hoops than you do.

It definitely is a concern, and that's why I ripped Gillispie in another thread today about not using the depth he raved about in the offseason. That's been a concern of mine all season long, but that doesn't mean I can't critique that in a USC player either.

ConwayGamecock

02-05-2009, 05:21 PM

Uh, what I'm saying is what I said. You're not lucky if you beat somebody by 27 like Clemson did to Duke last night. That's not pure luck.

But, closing plays where you get a run out because the other team falls asleep is the definiton of luck in a clutch basketball game. You don't have to admit it, it's not an insult though. you won the game and that's what matters... but let's not act like USC wasn't lucky.

but by your own basis of reasoning, UK could very well be lucky to have won their first 5 SEC games...they could very well be 0-8 at this juncture. :cheers:

But of course, every team needs a little luck to win games, just as teams need a little bad luck to lose them. You could find moments in games where this may apply everywhere, and every season. That's all a given, when discussions like this come up...all fans like me hope for is regardless where the lucky bounces end up, USC wins.

But you're trying to talk out of both sides of your mouth, here, KB. You're trying to diminish a USC fans' optimism in the possible fortunes of his team by making him think that whatever success they've already gotten is as fragile as a wisp of smoke, and it could all change tomorrow. And moreso, you try to make it seem as if this could all happen to USC ONLY, and not to any other college basketball program in the nation, like UK. And then, you try to make it look like that's NOT what you're trying to do.

And to all that, I say, it's a big bunch of hooey.

:raz:

kentubbybasketball

02-05-2009, 05:28 PM

but by your own basis of reasoning, UK could very well be lucky to have won their first 5 SEC games...they could very well be 0-8 at this juncture. :cheers:

But of course, every team needs a little luck to win games, just as teams need a little bad luck to lose them. You could find moments in games where this may apply everywhere, and every season. That's all a given, when discussions like this come up...all fans like me hope for is regardless where the lucky bounces end up, USC wins.

But you're trying to talk out of both sides of your mouth, here, KB. You're trying to diminish a USC fans' optimism in the possible fortunes of his team by making him think that whatever success they've already gotten is as fragile as a wisp of smoke, and it could all change tomorrow. And moreso, you try to make it seem as if this could all happen to USC ONLY, and not to any other college basketball program in the nation, like UK. And then, you try to make it look like that's NOT what you're trying to do.

And to all that, I say, it's a big bunch of hooey.

:raz:

I don't see how based on anything I've said you can suggest that I'm saying UK could be 0-8 if it weren't good luck. heck, I gave you an example of how some results aren't luck (using Clemson's win last night... that was luck, that was a smacking if there ever has been one). Likewise, take UK's 20+ win over UGA, that wasn't luck.

But, you got a "lucky bounce" as you say against Florida that you were guy was able to streak back without anybody going back as well.

And, the difference between success and failure at times is fragile. That's obvious looking at the results of the three USC wins I talked about earlier... together you won those games by how many points again?

And, I'm not trying to rain on your once in every ten years great season that happens to be this year. I'm just saying, the SEC season has given lots of teams lulls this season, and USC is doing well right now, but who's to say that success will continue given how fragile winning really is.

RailroadGin

02-05-2009, 05:31 PM

By this logic your 1998 title was luck seeing as how you only beat Stanford in the Final Four by luck, right?

kentubbybasketball

02-05-2009, 05:34 PM

By this logic your 1998 title was luck seeing as how you only beat Stanford in the Final Four by luck, right?

You must have missed a few post earlier where I said UK's 7 titles were luck. Of course, Kentucky was lucky that year, as any champ is. We were lucky we didn't have to face Arizona that year, since UTah dispatched of them in the Elite 8 because Zona was probably the best team that year. We were also lucky Utah beat UNC in the national semifinals. So, heck yeah, we were lucky... as I said about USC's wins this year though, good teams put themselves in a position to capitalize on luck, but I have no qualms admitting we've been lucky.

We've had bad luck too, like in 2003 when Bogans gets injured in the Sweet 16 of the Wisconsin game.

It's part of the game, luck is. I'm not too prideful to admit that.

SCgamecock2988

02-05-2009, 06:00 PM

You don't think 32 mpg is a lot of minutes for one guy? BTW, I know Meeks plays a lot of minutes... that's not news to me, Pat too. Remember, I watch more UK hoops than you do.

It definitely is a concern, and that's why I ripped Gillispie in another thread today about not using the depth he raved about in the offseason. That's been a concern of mine all season long, but that doesn't mean I can't critique that in a USC player either.

Yeah, and we watch more USC hoops than you do, so we know that when our team wins by slim margins, that it isn't luck. It's because we put ourselves in positions to win in those games and executed when it mattered, and also never gave up. Like Conway and RailroadGin said. God...Kentucky fans...

LSUTigers1404

02-05-2009, 06:09 PM

You must have missed a few post earlier where I said UK's 7 titles were luck. Of course, Kentucky was lucky that year, as any champ is. We were lucky we didn't have to face Arizona that year, since UTah dispatched of them in the Elite 8 because Zona was probably the best team that year. We were also lucky Utah beat UNC in the national semifinals. So, heck yeah, we were lucky... as I said about USC's wins this year though, good teams put themselves in a position to capitalize on luck, but I have no qualms admitting we've been lucky.

We've had bad luck too, like in 2003 when Bogans gets injured in the Sweet 16 of the Wisconsin game.

It's part of the game, luck is. I'm not too prideful to admit that.

Yea, we have had our fair share of bad luck also. In 2006, we had to face UCLA in the Final Four while Florida got George Mason.

BergeLSU

02-05-2009, 06:26 PM

Yea, we have had our fair share of bad luck also. In 2006, we had to face UCLA in the Final Four while Florida got George Mason.

LSU would have lost to GM in that game. Those players did not care. They got to the Final Four; they overachieved.

OffThePorch

02-05-2009, 06:30 PM

nothing more than a guess. like predicting the weather for a certain day 3 weeks from now.

govandy0620

02-05-2009, 10:12 PM

Considering we already have 3 conference wins, I don't think we are going to go 1-7 from here on out. Pretty accurate though in my opinion.

georgiaguy31015

02-05-2009, 10:28 PM

I'm not sure Georgia will win a game but I also believe in luck and I'm not sure Georgia's luck is bad enough to lose every game from here on out.

Our RPI is 47 at this time. We've gotten most of our tough games out of the way: both games to UF, road games to LSU, UT, and UK. We still have games against UK and UT, but at least they're in the CLA. Road games versus MSU and Vandy will be tough (with Vandy moreso due to that crappy court atmosphere). We've still got our 2 with UGA, and a home game against struggling Arkansas. All 8 games left are winnable, IMO. If we go 5-3 the rest of the way, we'll be 21-8 heading into the SECT, and that's not too bad. But I'd like to see us do one or two games better, at least....

Odom never took us to a winning conference record in 7 years, and Horn looks to do that in his inaugural season. I know the SEC is a bit down this year, but that's still nothing to gripe about...

That and the constant fear of getting tackled by Corey Smith.

JRS

02-06-2009, 12:36 PM

If I were a USC fan, I'd be quietly happy with our season thus far, but I'd be a little cautious quite frankly. The three wins they are trumpeting Baylor, Kentucky, and Florida should have been losses and would have been up till the final 10 seasons. So, this team is 13 seconds away from being 3-5 in the SEC, and a few more seconds away from not having the Baylor win.

Hopefully, for their sake that luck doesn't run out. I still don't think USC has much depth inside, although Steed has been among the most improved guys in the SEC. I also think Downey plays a heavy dose of minutes, and it'll be interesting to see how he holds up by March, right along with Frederick.

Should have, could have, would have, ifs, ands, and buts. The point is that USC made more plays to win than those three opponents. Lol, just let us worry about our team. I think we'll be fine.

kentubbybasketball

02-06-2009, 12:39 PM

Yeah, and we watch more USC hoops than you do, so we know that when our team wins by slim margins, that it isn't luck. It's because we put ourselves in positions to win in those games and executed when it mattered, and also never gave up. Like Conway and RailroadGin said. God...Kentucky fans...

We simply won't agree on the situation. As I said earlier, USC won the game and that's all that matters, whether it was by luck at the end or not.

kentubbybasketball

02-06-2009, 12:40 PM

LSU would have lost to GM in that game. Those players did not care. They got to the Final Four; they overachieved.

Maybe so. You guys beat teams coached by Billy Gillispie, Coach K, and Rick Barnes in succession to get to the final four. That team did overachieve, but you won the SEC, which was pretty good that year, so maybe not.

kentubbybasketball

02-06-2009, 12:41 PM

Should have, could have, would have, ifs, ands, and buts. The point is that USC made more plays to win than those three opponents. Lol, just let us worry about our team. I think we'll be fine.

If you want discussions with just USC fans, maybe this isn't the place for you. Otherwise, I'll talk about all 12 SEC teams.... that's why it's SEC Fanatics. If you've got a problem with that, there's an ignore feature that you can use to ignore my posts.

OffThePorch

02-06-2009, 03:45 PM

I'm not sure Georgia will win a game but I also believe in luck and I'm not sure Georgia's luck is bad enough to lose every game from here on out.

i think you guys will win a couple. good luck!

SCgamecock2988

02-06-2009, 03:47 PM

All I know is we better not take UGA lightly this weekend because they can play close with anyone.

orange&white

02-06-2009, 03:59 PM

at Auburn
vs Georgia
vs Vanderbilt
at Ole Miss
at Kentucky
vs Mississippi State
at Florida
at South Carolina
vs Alabama

I think UT goes 4-0 at home and 2-3 or 3-2 on the road to go 11-5 or 12-4.

JRS

02-06-2009, 04:40 PM

If you want discussions with just USC fans, maybe this isn't the place for you. Otherwise, I'll talk about all 12 SEC teams.... that's why it's SEC Fanatics. If you've got a problem with that, there's an ignore feature that you can use to ignore my posts.

I've got no problem with your posts, just saying that you don't have to worry about USC, or how we USC fans go about cheering for our team. We'll be just fine. ;)

kentubbybasketball

02-06-2009, 04:43 PM

I'm not really worried about USC, I do have an opinion though, so if you equate the two, so be it. It's not worth taking away from this thread continuing this discussion either.

cock15

02-07-2009, 11:04 PM

Gamecocks will win East and SEC Championship

msudawgs1964

02-07-2009, 11:16 PM

If you want discussions with just USC fans, maybe this isn't the place for you. Otherwise, I'll talk about all 12 SEC teams.... that's why it's SEC Fanatics. If you've got a problem with that, there's an ignore feature that you can use to ignore my posts.

but kentubby, in all fairness let's read what you wrote..

If I were a USC fan, I'd be quietly happy with our season thus far, but I'd be a little cautious quite frankly.

that reads to me that you really don't want to hear the USC fans opinions on this matter. Or maybe I just read your post wrong yet again, you know the trouble with word definitions gets me sometimes.

gmecockrugby

02-08-2009, 02:40 AM

i mean as usc fans we do have something to be proud of....our guys play with as much heart as anyone....Why not us? schools break barriers all the time we've been so close as a university to being great in all sports yet we fail.......this is our time

JRS

02-09-2009, 10:13 AM

i mean as usc fans we do have something to be proud of....our guys play with as much heart as anyone....Why not us? schools break barriers all the time we've been so close as a university to being great in all sports yet we fail.......this is our time

I agree that this team has the heart and has what it takes to make it to the tourney, and I still believe we can take the East.

GoCommies

02-09-2009, 11:02 AM

I think Downey is the type of player that could carry a team to an SEC-East win, but I don't see it happening. USC still makes the tourney as either the 2nd or 3rd of 5 SEC teams.

kentubbybasketball

02-09-2009, 12:40 PM

i mean as usc fans we do have something to be proud of....our guys play with as much heart as anyone....Why not us? schools break barriers all the time we've been so close as a university to being great in all sports yet we fail.......this is our time