tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713Thu, 30 Jul 2015 06:45:51 +0000China Air and Naval Powerhttp://china-pla.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com (Feng)Blogger316125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-3171997849850648970Mon, 20 Jul 2015 13:58:00 +00002015-07-20T06:58:08.103-07:00Update on Chinese Navy: MLP and ZubrMost recently, a new amphibious type of ship entered service with Chinese navy that looks to be similar to US’s Mobile Landing Platform. You can see it from the picture below.<br /><a href="http://postimage.org/" target="_blank"><img src="http://s21.postimg.org/4pkyf9kxz/203_145758_564033.jpg" width="500" /></a><br /><a href="http://postimage.org/" target="_blank"><img src="http://s15.postimg.org/nfjdexltn/203_145755_181892.jpg" width="500" /></a><br />As shown int he pictures, the most obvious usage of this ship (Given the number 868) has already been shown in photos where a Zubr class hovercraft boarded it. Based on the current photos, only one Zubr class hovercraft can fit in the platform area although it could also possibly also hold a Type 726 hovercraft (Chinese version of LCAC). PLAN had previously signed contract to purchase 4 Zubrs from Ukraine with 2 produced in Ukraine and the other 2 in China. The 2 from Ukraine were both delivered prior to Russia’s takeover of Crimea, but future dealings for Zubrs will most likely be with the Russians. At the time of purchase, it looked like they could be used in any Taiwan conflict scenarios or any amphibious operations in South China Sea. More blue water amphibious marine expeditions required the Type 071 class. The induction of No. 868 certainly allows more expanded operational scenario for Zubr, but the scale of its usage is really limited by the number of such MLPs that PLAN will likely induct in the future. <br /><br />This looks to be a vote of confidence for Zubr class in China. I think that China will be building more Zubr with Russian help (especially on propulsions) after the first batch of 4 joins service. This huge commitment for Zubr comes after PLAN had already inducted the smaller Type 726 into service. That would indicate Zubr is bringing some unique capabilities that Type 726 launched from Type 071 simply cannot provide. As with No. 868, we will have to wait to see its other usage cases, since PLAN is unlikely to have ordered such a ship just to carry 1 Zubr around. http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2015/07/update-on-chinese-navy-mlp-and-zubr.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-685950621473878131Sat, 27 Jun 2015 14:56:00 +00002015-06-27T07:56:41.692-07:00Export of Yuan SubmarineVery recently, an article from <a href="http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/security/604452/chinese-win-bid-to-supply-subs-to-navy">Bangkok Post</a> broke the news that China has own the competition to supply 3 submarines to Bangkok Navy. While this is China's third export deal of conventional submarine in the past year, this is the most significant one in terms of the competitiveness of the competition. Since China and Thailand has a history of military transactions, this deal is unlikely to encounter the kind of scrutiny like the Turkey long range SAM contract.<br/><br/>At present time, there are at least 12 Yuan submarines of different variants (4 039As and 8+ 039Bs) in service with PLAN across 2 flotillas. They and the Type 039 Song submarines are the work horses of PLAN. After a rapid production run the last couple of years, the production has slowed in the past year. While this is the most capable of China's mass produced conventional submarine, it is not considered to be as classified as when it first came out. In the past year, Admiral Greenert, Chief of US naval operation, was allowed to go inside one of the Type 039B. While this generally reflect PLAN's effort to be show greater transparency with its USN counterpart, it also indicates 039B is not held with the same level of secrecy as Type 093 nuclear submarine. Since late 2013, a model of S-20 was displayed in various arms exhibitions. From one of the exhibitions, the S-20 is shown to have submerged displacement 2300 ton with maximum dive of 300 m. I was always under the impression that 039B was larger than this, so S-20 may turn out to be a smaller version of 039B.<br/><br/>In late 2013, It was reported that China had received order for 2 Ming class submarines (Type 035B) from Bangladesh. This was certainly surprising news since Chinese shipyard have not produced such submarines since early 2000s. Rather than selling 2 from its existing fleet, these were to be new builds. It's not clear which shipyard is building these submarines, since I have yet to see any pictures. While the type of submarine was surprising, the fact that China was selling to one of its traditional clients was not. Then in early this year, Pakistan announced that it will purchase <a href="http://www.dawn.com/news/1173042/govt-endorses-summary-to-get-8-submarines-from-china-defence-committee-told">8 submarines</a> from China along with 4 frigates. None of this was surprising, since reports of export of 6 to 8 Yuan submarines (S-20P for Pakistan?) had been rumoured for several years after Pakistan's U-214 deal failed due to funding issues. Since Pakistani Navy had always been purchasing advanced European submarines up to this point, it was significant that Pakistani Navy found Yuan submarine as suitable purchase. Even so, China's traditionally strong relationship with Pakistan was important in this deal.<br/><br/>While, the order from Thailand is not as large as Pakistan, it involved more competitors based on the various articles on this sale. With offers from Germany, South Korea, Russia, Sweden and France, S-20T won against some quality competition. None of this means Yuan submarine is the most advanced or the quietest conventional submarine out there. The article was very clear in that Yuan was picked because it the best value for money. In other articles, they also mentioned China's willing to transfer technology and provide training. I would think that other nations are willing to provide training and ToT also, so I think the bigger draw is China's cost advantage. The article also mentioned Chinese submarines can stay in the water longer and had superior weaponry and technology. That could mean Yuan submarine's AIP engine showed good performance in trials. The superior weaponry probably points to the torpedoes and submarine launched anti-ship cruise missiles that China has developed in the recent years. Traditionally, the Chinese submarines have been more noisy than western submarines. While this export variant of Yuan submarine is unlikely to the quietest in the competition, its cost advantage along with comparable performance in other areas won over Thailand. It's worth noting that China's 054A had lost out to South Korea in Thailand's frigate competition despite similar cost advantage. So this shows Thailand would not pick S-20 if it did not believe in its performance.<br/><br/>Conventional submarine is one of the most lucrative sector of defense industry. West European and Russian submarine makers had been winning most of the export competitions in the past, so it bodes well that S-20 could win one of such competitions on more than just cost advantage.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2015/06/export-of-yuan-submarine.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-4091930843888765350Mon, 25 May 2015 21:19:00 +00002015-05-26T04:52:52.693-07:00Update to the Chinese carrier projectI have not made much updates recently due to travel and busy work schedule, but I did see this picture today which was really interesting. Edited: It turns out the original photo I posted was a CG, so only the one below is real. This one shows 4 10x J-15s on board. We also have photo of 5 J-15s flying together.<br /><a href="http://postimg.org/image/a5zpoo6hf/"><img alt="106 Apr26" border="0" src="http://s13.postimg.org/69mdsolhz/106_Apr26.jpg" width="500" /></a><br/> There are various conflicting reports on this particular training exercise, but it seems like CV-16 and escort fleet left early April for the first training exercise of the year and may have spent time in South China Sea before coming back. The J-15s on board CV-16 are from the first production batch numbered 10x. We've seen up to No. 109 in J-15s, so they do have up to 10 production J-15s available to be deployed. The most important part to note here is that they have moved past flight testing with the same 2 or 3 J-15 prototypes.<br/><br/>Again, it took two and half year for PLAN to get to this point with CV-16, so this is still a very deliberate project for them. Based on recent interviews, it looks like they are trying to move forward at a measured pace to avoid any major accidents. As more J-15s are produced, it is interesting to see CV-16 with increasingly crowded flight deck.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2015/05/update-to-chinese-carrier-project.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-6363875270107204410Mon, 06 Apr 2015 14:58:00 +00002015-04-06T07:58:03.813-07:00Cutter progress in Chinese shipyardsI last wrote about China's expansion of civilian maritime force <a href-"http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2013/01/chinas-recent-expansion-of-civilian.html">here</a>. Due to recent requests, I'm doing an update. Please note that as with all else Chinese shipbuilding related, the various programs do change and some new builds may have been mixed. This is my best attempt at summarizing what has happened in the past 2 years.<br/><br/>In the first part of that last post, I wrote about the expansion of CMS (Chinese Maritime Surveillance) provincial branches. From the table in that section, 36 cutters of 1500 ton, 1000 ton and 600 ton class were built for various provincial flotilla of CMS. Much of the building and launching activities happened in 2013 and 2014. HP shipyard, which builds most of the larger cutters, have delivered all of the cutters that they were contracted to build by middle of 2014. WC shipyard seems to have completed its share too. Even the smaller shipyards seem to have finished most if not all of their ships. So at this point, it looks like the provincial expansion have completed.<br/><br/>After this first expansion of provincial fleet, the Chinese Maritime Surveillance, now under the Coast guard, is undergoing a further expansion as mentioned in the second part of that post. That program consists of 2 12000 ton cutters to be built by JN shipyard, 4 5000 ton cutters to be built by WC shipyard, 4 4000 ton cutters to be built by HP shipyard and 10 more 3000 ton cutters to be built by HP and WC shipyard. Most likely, RFPs were sent out to the various shipyards around the country, but only a few shipyards in China are capable of building these larger cutters. The 2 12000 ton cutters were launched at JN shipyard this past few months and they are probably the first major cutter projects that JN shipyard has worked on. They are given the designations Haijing-2901 and 3901. It's unclear if more of this class will be built. The 4000 ton class cutters have been all delivered by HP shipyard as Haijing-1401, 2401, 3401 and 3402. It looks like those 3000 ton class cutters have now all been launched and commissioned into service with Coast guard. 3 of them are with the North Sea Flotilla, 4 with East Sea Flotilla and remaining 3 with South Sea Flotilla. In addition, works have been under way for the 5000+ ton class ships cutters with 3 of them (Haijing-1501, 2501, 3501) launched in the past few months at WC shipyard.<br/><br/>All of the work by HP shipyard were completed by the end of 2014, whereas WC is still in the middle of completing the 5000 ton class cutters and just most recently completed work for 3000 ton class cutters. All of this is somewhat surprising, because WC shipyard had taken the lion share of cutter constructions in the past, while HP is new to the game. I think the experience that HP gained from the 054A and 056 class projects really improved their ability in delivering ships on time. They are now rewarded with large orders for both naval ships and cutters. Back in 2013, CMS had joined the coast guard along with FLEC and customs as part of a consolidation of China's large maritime surveillance programs. Before that point, only the coast guard ships were allowed to be installed with naval gun. As part of this consolidation, all the newer large cutters for various arms of the consolidated Coast Guard are installed with naval gun. With all the maritime issues that China has with its neighbours, I think the ability to install naval and machine guns on these cutters is definitely a reason that pushed for the consolidation of the 4 agencies.<br/><br/>On top of the work for CMS, FLEC also had money to expand its fleet with 3000 ton and 1000 ton cutters. Since FLEC also merged into the coast guard, I found it hard to hard to determine which of the newer cutters are for its orders. There are a couple of new 3000 ton class cutters launched at both HP/WC shipyards like 3301 and 2301 that seem to fit the profile.<br/><br/>Of the 2 smaller agencies that consolidated, HaiGuan (Chinese customs) had an order for 3 1500-ton class cutter with electric propulsion and 9 600 ton class cutters. The 1500 ton class cutters are to be built by HP shipyard. The first of which was launched last year and has now been painted with Haijing-44104. The 600 ton cutters are built by Guijiang shipyard. Guijiang shipyard handles a large quantity of Coast guard's 600 ton class cutters. They were the first to built Type 618 and improved versions of Type 618 cutters for the old Chinese coast guard. They have continued to built Type 618B cutters for the new consolidated coast guard.<br/><br/>Since the last update, the majority of the programs have been completed or well under way. The old CMS agency has been delivered with most of the ships it had ordered, whereas FLEC still seems to be waiting for all of its ships. The new consolidated Coast guard agency have since started new programs. A year ago, they started projects for Type 818 patrol vessels (3000 ton class) and Type 718 cutters (2000 ton class), HP shipyard signed for 4 of the Type 818 and 5 of Type 718. It sounds like Hudong, guijiang and Zhejiang are also participating in these 2 programs. WC shipyard's involvement was not clear, although my guess is that it will be building them too. So, the Chinese coast guard build up is continuing over the next few years, but probably at a slower pace than the past 2 years.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2015/04/cutter-progress-in-chinese-shipyards.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-9115871277108353975Sat, 21 Mar 2015 13:30:00 +00002015-03-21T06:30:36.296-07:00Myanmar and KokangIn this past month, Myanmar air force has apparently waded into Chinese territory 3 times as part of its ongoing struggles with Kokang rebels. In the most recent time, bombs were dropped which killed 5 Chinese citizens. Due to the fact that the vast majorities of Kokang population are ethnically Han Chinese and use RMB as their currency, there is understandably a lot of sympathy in China toward the plight of Kokang. Many people have compared this to Russia and Crimea and others wonder if China should do more in this conflict.<br/><br/>As usual, China keeps to its official stance of not interfering with another country’s internal affairs while building up air defense capabilities in the border area. China painstakingly makes it clear that it’s not supporting Kokang rebels causes, because it has relatively good relationship with Myanmar and does a lot of business in the country. In the future, it is also possible that China would want to set up base in Myanmar to access Indian Ocean. So it should be quite understandable that PLA does not devote much resource in this area. There is 2 regiments stationed in the area, but they are quite a distance away from where the bombings took place. A lot of people were wondering about the readiness of PLAAF to respond to intrusions, but it seems like they really didn’t have that much time based on where the intrusions happened. <br/><br/>The interesting part is that Myanmar first reacted to these bombings by putting the blames on the rebels and absolving itself of all responsibility. They have since toned down their accusations and may have even offered compensations to the victim’s families, but I think they really looked quite foolish in the process. A swift apology and some kind of pledge to investigate the matters would have done a lot to pacify the anger in China right now. As it is, the Chineses gov’t is under pressure to do something.<br/><br/>So far, it looks like they have told Myanmar that this kind of action is not acceptable and will not be tolerated. And I think that if China wants to be the leader in this region, it certainly cannot allow repeated incursion of its airspace and bombing of its citizens. The way to do that is by building up more air defense weapon systems and installing more early warning radar in the range. If China’s radar cannot reliable track Myanmar’s Mig-29s, then they need to improve those radar systems. And if another deadly bombing does occur, then they probably need to launch strikes against certain Myanmar military targets. Other than that, it is in China's interest to keep this as low-key as possible.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2015/03/myanmar-and-kokang.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-5343363302957874701Sat, 07 Mar 2015 15:46:00 +00002015-03-07T13:09:48.086-08:00What's most shrouded in secrecyThe Chinese navy has long been accused of not showing enough transparency. While that has certainly really improved in the recent year, there are still plenty of areas that's hard for a blogger like myself to follow. Certainly, most of the surface combatants are easy to track, since many photos are released of them. Most of the subsystems and weapon systems on these ships are also quite transparent with some version of them offered for exports. There are some many news reports giving even more information on various naval ships and their subsystems. So which programs are noticeably absent from all these photos and news releases?<br/><br/>The most obvious answers would be their strategic platforms. Certainly, CV-16 is a strategic platform, but it also happens to be one of the more transparent programs due to how it has captured the imagination of the ordinary people. At this point, I don't see them introducing any significant secrecy to CV-16 or aircraft carriers in general due to the excitement it has generated. Certainly, the nuclear submarine programs are probably the most secretive platforms amongst all of the naval ships. We very rarely see pictures of under construction nuclear submarines, but we do get some pictures of them at the naval bases and out on patrols. Also, 093 was officially declassified a few years ago, which allowed for some more pictures to come out. As shown in my previous blog entry, we get enough information about 093 and 094 from China themselves and Google Earth photos in addition to ONI reports to make some educated guesses on where they are at.<br/><br/>So, what else are really hard to get any kind of useful information on? The first would be the ASBM project. I've written numerous articles on it back in 2009. Such articles were written based on work already done by Chinese bloggers on the same topic. Even though numerous articles were written by people like myself, Andrew Erickson and numerous other PLA followers, much of what we gathered were based on our observations of various support systems that were developed. Certainly, we get more information on China's satellite programs, ELINT programs and UAV programs than DF-21D missile itself. We know that it is an active program, but the actual operational status is unknown at this point. It certainly makes sense that such secrecy is given to this program because of its strategic nature against US aircraft carriers. Due to the amount of attention I've seen USN given to this program, it seems like China would be wise to continue the secrecy here.<br/><br/>Secondly, What caused me to write this blog is the secrecy in China's torpedo programs. First thing to note is the different levels of transparency given to light and heavy torpedoes. We have not only seen many photos of Yu-7 carried by helicopters and launched by naval ships, but we've also seen export versions (ET-52) of Yu-7 and pictures of the Yu-7 seeker. It would make sense for Yu-7 to be more transparent since it's unlikely to be very helpful against nuclear submarine and more likely to be used to counter conventional submarines. At the same time, its kinetic performance can be estimated based on that of MK-46 and A244-S. Basically, the Chinese navy don't have as much to loose by giving Yu-7 greater transparency. It will be interesting to see if the next generation of light torpedo will be given the same level of transparency. It certainly seems like they are not investing as much in them. Heavy torpedo on the other hand have been extremely secretive. In the past 5 years, we've seen photos of Yu-6 and Yu-3A loaded onto conventional submarines. There have been no export versions of 533 mm torpedoes anywhere. There have been little to no articles on the usage and test firings of 533 mm torpedoes. Even the status and performance of a rather old torpedo like Yu-3A is completely off limits. I do suspect that they should have the necessary kinetic performance to sink conventional submarines and most surface combatants provided that the Chinese submarine can reliably track them. Based on that, it seems like these torpedoes will remain in service at least with the conventional submarines.<br/><br/>Since the wide introduction of Yu-6 is the past decade, there have apparently been 2 new heavy torpedoes in development that are either in service of close to service Yu-9 and Yu-10. In case you are wondering, I just read them off reasonably reliable Chinese bbs sources that these torpedo programs do exist and have gone through test firings. These were probably done in China's underwater weapon test range in South China Sea. It's no wonder why China is so concerned about American spy aircraft and ships around that area. Considering that there have not been any photos of them anywhere, I certainly don't have any details on their kinetic performance. So, the question is why there are so much secrecy toward these 533 mm torpedoes. I think China has correctly identified USN nuclear submarines as their biggest threat. After all, Chinese submarines cannot leave their naval bases without getting tracked by USN subs. Even though the top speed and operating depth of USN subs are classified, I would imagine that China needs something like MK-48 ADCAP that can sustain high speed over long range to chase down a modern USN submarine. The actual performance of something like the MK-48 mod 7 CBASS is classified (as is its advanced processing capability), but i would imagine it's capable of chasing down and destroying Russian and Chinese nuclear submarines that are within certain range. So I do think these new torpedoes will take over from Yu-3A/6 as the primary weapons on the Chinese nuclear submarines. On top of that, USN aircraft carriers are extremely fast and well protected against strikes for anti-ship missiles. A heavy torpedo is sure to do much greater damage than even multiple hits from anti-ship missiles. Therefore, new heavy torpedo development would also have double strategic value in usage against carriers. Now, I'm not saying the Chinese nuclear submarines are quiet enough to get within torpedo launching distance of a USN carrier, but numerous ambushing conventional submarines equipped with new torpedoes would be credible threats. So, I think these usage cases against strategic platforms explain their classified nature.<br/><br/>Another torpedo system that we have very little information on is China's version of ASROC. Since 054As have joined service, there have been many photos, articles and TV interviews revealing the many capabilities of this class of ships. We knew very early on that 054A's VLS could launch HQ-16 missiles and have seen many photos of live firing of HQ-16. However, it was only recently confirmed on Chinese online sources that these VLS could also fire anti-submarine missile (given possible designation Yu-8). We first heard on a TV interview of PLAN commander that such ability does exist, but I did not know at the time whether this Yu-8 was fired from the VLS or some other launcher. I just have not seen any photos of Yu-8 at this point. Based on articles regarding the new VLS on 052D, it seems like that VLS will also be capable of firing some types of anti-submarine missile. There are certain advantages to VL anti-submarine missile vs normal shipborne torpedo launchers, since it gives surface combatants additional quick reaction, standoff ASW capability on top of shipborne helicopters. As I mentioned, we are still waiting for first public photo of such missile.<br/><br/>On top of the classified nature of torpedoes, information on the new sonar system that China has developed for its surface combatants and submarines are also classified, but not to the same degree. I think it's clear that the Chinese Navy sees ASW as its biggest weakness. They have spent a lot of money in developing sensors to track advanced submarines, but more resources is spent on the weapons against them. Even as they show more transparency, torpedo programs are still very secretive.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2015/03/whats-most-shrouded-in-secrecy.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-1012761739344208940Wed, 18 Feb 2015 16:41:00 +00002015-02-18T08:41:53.611-08:00Type 093/094 updatesRecently, there was an article from Taiwanese magazine talking about newly launched hulls of the improved Type 093 program. Since I don't normally trust sources that I have not vetted, I decided to take a deeper look into my notes from the past year and also look through some satellite imagery.<br /><br />My most recent update on Chinese nuclear submarines was posted <a href="http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2013/09/plan-nuclear-submarine-development.html">here in Oct 2013</a>. That update was the result of reading a 2013 report by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission that China began building first of 4 improved 093 SSN in 2012. I've since used the designation 093B on this improved variant. Based on my investigation at the time, it looked like the actual work probably started a few years earlier, but the sub first showed up on satellite images bye 2012. That's probably what they were referring to although I do not really know how they arrived at 4 as the projected number of builds. By the time the report came out, the public available satellite imagery already showed the first of the improved 093 SSNs launched at Huludao shipyard, so I was able to confirm it in my blog entry. Since nuclear submarine imagery is harder to come by than other Chinese naval ships due to their strategic nature, I find these DoD/Naval/US governmental reports to be very helpful as guidance since they have sources that I simply don't have access to.<br /><br />From 2013 satellite images after the report came out, it appeared that 093B may have a hump and look to slightly wider than early 093s. Since that report came out, a 2014 update to the satellite photos showed the new 093B had left Huludao shipyard for sea trials. There was also a really blurry photo of 093B next to a pier that again showed it may have the hump. That Taiwanese magazine (and numerous people on internet forums) speculated that 093B will have a VLS installation, but I think that is very unlikely even if 093B design has a hump due to space limitations. If 093B is actually wider than 093, I would imagine they want to use that space for noise reduction technology. If 094 is up to 30 m longer than 093 with its 12 SLBM launchers, why would adding a 16 cell VLS to 093 not require a visibly longer hull? I think the biggest step from 091 to 093 was creating a submarine that had reliable reactor capable of sustaining top speed of 30 knots. Type 093 is still very loud so the biggest improvement would be reducing the noise level to a more acceptable level. It's possible that Type 095 will carry VLS, but I think it makes more sense to put that on a larger SSGN design.<br /><br />The past couple of days, I've looked around the usual nuclear submarine locations in China to look for current states of nuclear attack subs. It appears that the Taiwanese photos of 2 side by side 093B submarine to be accurate and they are beside each other at the piers of Huludao shipyard. It's harder to determine with the newer pictures if 093B do indeed have the hump. Moreover, there is another 093B in advanced stage of construction in the dry dock. It is possible the first 093B has returned to the piers after sea trials in various underwater test center or maybe both of the launched ones are new 093Bs. The main support for returning 093B would be the unlikelihood of Huludao launching 2 093Bs so soon after the previous GE photos showing no submarines at the piers of Huludao shipyard. I think the latter case is more likely because sea trials for new attack subs normally take longer and they normally don't seem to return to Huludao after a year. Also, the 2 boats both look more surfaced vs active attack sub, which seems to me means that not all of the stuff inside have been installed yet.<br/><br/>If we go by US-China Economic and Security Review Commission report of 4 093B submarines, then all of the submarines will likely be launched by 2016. It looks like 5 094s have been launched already, so Huludao would be focusing on attack subs at this point. So, what do we know about this improved variant of 093? Based on satellite photos of the most surfaced 091 submarine, the first generation of Chinese attack sub is likely around 93 m in length and 9.5 to 10 m in beam. Of the first two 093s I spotted at Yulin submarine base, they are both around 101 m in length and 8.5 to 9 m in beam. Now, if we use the premise that these 093s are more submerged than the 091s, it's likely the 093s are about the same (or maybe slightly less than) in beam as 091, but up to 10 m longer. It would be hard for me to imagine that 093 would be 1 m less in beam than 091, since that would definitely result in smaller inner hull width. The newer 093Bs look to be around 106 m in length and 10.8 to 11 m in beam. Consider that one of them is in dry docks and the other 2 are more surfaced than the in service attack subs, these are likely to be accurate measurement of the boat's dimensions. So I think this improved variant of 093 submarine is wider and slightly longer than the early 093s. My guess is that with the larger submarine and newer technology becoming available, there is probably going to be real changes inside the submarine with newer reactor, engines and reduction gears in addition to more noise reduction gears. It looks like they are at least comfortable enough with the design to mass produce it since 3 or 4 093Bs are launched or close to launching. Until then, the only attack subs in service will be the 3 091s at JiangGeZhuang and 2 093s at Yulin submarine base.<br/><br/>The next part to look at is China's ballistic missile submarines. There is still the one 092 SSBN at Jianggezhuang submarine base which I think should be converted to SSGN at some point, since it cannot carry JL-2 SLBMs. On top of that, there is the old Type 031 Golf class that appears to still be at Jianggezhuang base even though it has retired already. The lone Type 032 submarine, which was built to replace Golf Class, is now at Xiaopingdao submarine base. It does make sense for Type 032 to be there, since Xiaopingdao is a naval testing center for submarines (and possibly other ships) rather than an active submarine flotilla. That's why no attack submarines are found in that base. It is also close enough within China's Bohai Sea where it would be more dangerous for foreign subs to follow. At the moment, there are 2 094s at Yulin submarine base and 1 094 at at Xiaopingdao. Last year, we had a photo of 3 094s at Yulin submarine base, but photos since have shown 2 there. At the same time, there were 2 094s at the piers of Huludao shipyard based on satellite photos. That would indicate a total of 5 094s have been launched. Based on previous ONI projections of 5 094s, it seems like all of the 094s have alredy been produced. This would corroborate the current satellite photos where the launched and under construction boats are all attack subs. So why do we only see 3 094s on the satellite photos at the moment. My guess is that the 2 094s currently at Yulin are both officially in service. The other 094 that was at Yulin base in 2014 could either be in service or not. If it is in service, then it could be out on a patrol. Otherwise, it is likely to be in Chinese navy's deep water testing center in South China Sea going through deep dive and long endurance testing. It seems like at least 3 094s will be operating out of the Yulin submarine base. The one in Xiaopingdao was probably launched in 2013 at Huludao along with the first 093B. It has likely finished the initial sea trials and is now going through more advanced weapon/sonar/combat system testing at Xiaopingdao. The other 094 that was at Huludao in 2014 is probably going through sea trials right now. There was a gap of about 3 to 4 years (2004 to 2007/8) from the launching of first 094 to the next 2. All 3 of them probably went through testing at Xiaopingdao around 2007 to 2009 range. I think it's likely that all 3 are commissioned by this point. Since there is a gap of about 5 years from the time the 3rd 094 to 4th 094, I think it's quite possible the last two have made some changes vs the earlier ones based on problems found in testing. Satellite photos show that even though the length of submarine are the same, the location of launch tubes may have moved. Overall, the changes in the newer 094s seem to be less than the change in the newer 093s, which would explain the longer time gap between the first 2 093s and the improved 093B submarines. That seems to indicate the flaws in the earlier Type 093s required more time and effort to overcome. It is also possible that greater urgency was placed on Type 094 program due to the need of having a true long range underwater nuclear deterrent.<br/><br/>At current time, the ratio of attack submarines to boomers in Chinese Navy is currently 5 (3 091s + 2 093s) to 4 (1 092 + 3 094s). If we factor in the the submarines that are under construction and in sea trials, it will become 9 (3 091s + 6 093s) to 6 (1 092 + 5 094s). That seems to insufficient number of attack subs protecting boomers. Moreover, the 3 091s are likely to be retired in the coming years, since they have already been in service for 25 to 30 years. The lone 092 seems to be more likely to be converted to a SSGN rather than be decomissioned with the 091s. So it seems like the first Type 095 submarine would needs to launch soon after the conclusion of Type 093B program in order to eventually establish a 2 to 1 ratio between attack subs and boomers. Based on everything I have seen, Huludao does seem to have started work on Type 095 program already.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2015/02/type-093094-updates.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-6058412360106669540Wed, 11 Feb 2015 23:24:00 +00002015-02-11T15:27:54.369-08:00Around Chinese shipyardsRecently, there was an overhead shot of the JiangNan shipyard showing all of the activity going on. From that picture, it became apparent that there were 2 new Type 726 LCAC that were under construction that we were previously unaware of. With that in mind, the following is a best effort attempt to show the building activities around the major naval shipbuilding yards.<br /><br />First start off with JiangNan shipyard, which is known for building most of PLAN's destroyers and some MCM ships and diesel submarines.<br /><a href="http://postimage.org/" target="_blank"><img alt="blah" border="0" src="http://s3.postimg.org/lryk0z5df/blah.jpg" width="400" /></a><br />The recent overhead photos shows 5 launched 052C/D around the ship. No. 151 has returned to the shipyard for maintenance and is currently parked next to No. 153, which has yet to be commissioned. It looks like the latter is ready to be commissioned any day now. Amongst the 052D, another one has just went on sea trials leaving 3 052Ds that are launched still in shipyard. At current time, there is one 052D that joined service last year with 2 other ones in sea trials. A 4th 052D looks to be ready for sea trials soon and the remaining 2 are probably 6 month to a year away from being ready for sea trial. There is at least 2 more 052Ds that are scheduled to be built at this shipyard. Works for 052D series has also started at Dalian shipyard, but the production there is limited compared to JN shipyard. The other notable ship is the 2nd 12000 ton cutter. This one is given the number Haijing-3901 (first one had Haijing-2901). Based on prior reports, only these 2 units should be built for this class of coast guard ships. They should be the 2 largest cutters in service with the Chinese Coast Guard. Now that the numerous civilian ministries have joined coast guard, many of the cutters are getting armed with naval guns (some even with 76 mm). I still have yet to see such gun on the 12000 ton, so it would be interesting to see if it will be armed. Finally, 2 new Type 726 LCAC appears to be under construction at JN shipyard. So far, 3 have been built for Type 071 LPDs. Since each LPD can fit 4 of them, I think more Type 726s are expected for the future. However, there are currently only gaps in PLAN's numbering system for 2 more Type 726s (3323 and 3324), so I wonder what kind of plans they have for this series. With the induction of Zubr hovercraft, they do not need Type 726 for solo missions to nearby islands. Do they intend to fit more Type 726s into Type 071's well deck in the future or do they intend to use it to hold amphibious vehicles? That could tell us about how PLA conducts amphibious assaults in the future.<br /><br />Secondly, HuDong shipyard is as busy as it usually is. There are currently 3 larger ships launched and parked at the shipyard. One of which is the 4th Type 071 and the 2 others are both Type 815A AGI ship. Interestingly enough, there was a 3rd Type 815A which recently just departed the shipyard and entered NSF with pennant number 854. The first 2 Type 815s (one of which is Type 815A) both entered service with ESF. Given the overwhelming presence of JMSDF and USN nearby, it makes sense for these ships to first join ESF and NSF. It would be interesting to see if SSF will get any of the two that are under construction. The ships themselves are large enough to go past the immediate South China Sea area for longer ranged missions. I have already talked about Type 071 project in previous posts, so I will leave it alone here. The smaller surface combatants consist of 2 Type 054A(10th and 11th from HD) and 2 Type 056 (6th and 7th from HD), One of the 054As look ready to join service soon and the other one was just launched recently. One of the Type 056 should be going on sea trials soon if it has not already. There are definitely more 056 to be built here, but not sure if that applies to Type 054A. Finally, there are also 2 C28A frigates for the Algerian navy that are parked closely to the 2 Type 056s. The second one was just launched this past week and the modules for the 3rd one can also be seen. These 2800 ton ships are the largest export ships that the Chinese shipyards are currently building. Most of the export surface ships have been OPVs, FACs and smaller patrol boats. Since HD shipyard builds mostly frigates and larger ships, the next export contract it will likely work on is when Pakistan orders a follow-on to the F-22P series. At this point, I don't believe China has received any export orders based on Type 054A, which is a real shame considering how well it has served the Chinese Navy.<br /><br />Next up, HuangPu shipyard also has a lot of activities for both naval and coast guard ships. It currently has 2 Type 056s (6th and 7th from HP) and 1 Type 054A (10th) parked outside. The 11th Type 054A is still in the construction hall and a few months away from launching. As usual, HP shipyard is swamped with ships for coast guard and other civilian ministries. In the past year, HP shipyard has built 1500, 3000 and 4000 ton cutters for different ministries. Even though they all fall under coast guard now, the cutters are still needed for the pre-merger ministries like CMS, FLEC and Customs. As mentioned earlier, one of the notable things is that these newer cutters now come with naval guns. HP and WC shipyard have both gotten similar orders for Type 056 and cutters, but HP have generally been building them much quicker. I think this just reflects the reality of Chinese shipbuilding industry where shipyards around Shanghai and Guangzhou simply are higher quality than the ones up north and further inland.<br /><br />Right beside HuangPu shipyard is the GSI shipyard. Currently, there is one Type 904A and one Type 903A parked outside with a second Type 904A under construction. Another Type 903A AOR just went on sea trials a few days ago and these are the 5th and 6th ships of this class. Type 903/A AORs have been instrumental in all of China's recent Gulf of Aden flotillas and other blue water missions. Aside from the UNREP ships, each Type 903A also have hangar and helipad for one Z-8 helicopter for re-supplying other ships. The 2 new Type 904A with probably join No. 888 in supplying the islands of South China Sea. It is possible these ships are replacing No. 883 and 884 which are serving the same role. It is also possible that more are needed due to China's many reef reclamation and building projects down there.<br /><br />Going further inland, we have the WC shipyard which has one launched Type 056 and another Type 072A LST, but also many export ships. Most recently, F91, which is the first P18N, was delivered to Nigeria. F92, the second P18N, is launched at WC shipyard and will also be delivered this year according to Nigerian Navy. The P18N OPVs are probably designed based on Type 056 class, but is slightly longer and displaces more at 1800 ton. They only cost $42 million each, so are not as heavily armed as Type 056s and also have lower speed requirement. We also heard recently that Argentina has agreed to buy 5 OPVs from China similar to P18N class with 2 built in China and 3 more in Argentina. Each ship is said to cost $50 million, so will probably be similar to Nigeria in armament. They will most likely be built at WC shipyard. WC shipyard also has launched 2 Type 056s for Bangladesh Navy numbered F111 and F112. Based on the recent photos, they look to have similar armament to the Chinese ones. More of these Type 056s will likely be built in Bangladesh. There are also discussions for exporting Type 056 to Pakistan and Kazakhstan, which may increase WC shipyard's export portofolio.<br/><br />Aside from these more active ones, Dalian is building Type 052D right now and will likely also get orders for Type 055 program, but was previously mostly working on CV-16. From recent Google Earth photos, there looks to be no new submarines launched outside of Huludao shipyard. That could mean PLAN is evaluating the acoustic performance of the launched ones from 2013 GE photos, since they also don't appear to be at the nuclear sub naval bases. This wraps up the activities at the major shipyards. The smaller ones are tasked of building Type 056 (in the case of LiaoNan), patrol boats and cutters (in the case of Guijiang). They are harder to track due to lack of interest, but we do get photos of export versions of FACs and patrol boats. It's quite apparent that China is getting a lot more of these export contracts for building patrol boats, FACs, OPVs and frigates. Unlike 5 years ago, they are now beating out European and Russian competitions for export contracts. China has unveiled <a href="http://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/news/defence-news/year-2013-news/march-2013-navy-world-naval-forces-maritime-industry-technology-news/910-chinese-shipbuilder-csoc-unveiled-new-frigate-lhd-and-submarine-designs-at-idex-2013.html">more advanced export designs</a> the last couple of years. The next step up for them would be to win more lucrative contracts in submarines, large amphbious docking ships and 4000+ ton warships.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2015/02/around-chinese-shipyards.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-7104632777239904082Fri, 30 Jan 2015 17:40:00 +00002015-01-30T09:40:21.889-08:00China's Advanced TrainersRecently, a flurry of articles of come out about JL-9 series of GAIC and L-15 (JL-10) series of HAIG. With all of the progress that's made in China's military aviation industry, the progress amongst advanced trainers have been rather slow, with Hongdu's products L-15/JL-10 and CJ-7 being the slowest and most frustrating.<br /><br />Guizhou and Hongdu both unveiled their AJT projects and had maiden flight around the middle of last decade. At the time, GAIC started the JL-9 project earlier and also had a simpler design, so was expected to finish quickly. Hongdu was the sexier project with more advanced layout, higher specs and turbofan engine. After 10 years, the question is where does that leave us with the future of China's AJT fleet?<br /><br />Recently, I've found news from Guizhou that they are producing 3 types of AJTs: JJ-7A, JJ-9 and JL-9G. Now, I find it quite interesting they are still producing JJ-7A, but that may just indicate JL-9 series itself has taken longer than expected to be produced. I remember as early as 2005, JL-9 was already undergoing testing in CFTE, but had to undergo some changes after. It seemed like JJ-9 was delivered to FTTC for evaluation by the end of last decade. It seemed to have taken another 4 years after that for the first regiment to be delivered with JJ-9 in 2013 even after achieving design certification in 2011. It's quite possible that more changes were made during this time based on issues found by FTTC. This past year, more JJ-9 was delivered to both PLAAF and PLANAF, which would indicate the program is finally on track and have satisfied PLA requirements. At the same time, moire articles have come out praising GAIC for the various types of JL-9 that have been developed. At around the time CV-16 project was picking up speed, work for a naval trainer also started with JL-9G. It's unclear to me at this point if this variant is only aimed for naval aviation since tail hook is no longer installed. Several improvements were made to allow JL-9G to handle the greater stress and higher takeoff/landing requirements of naval aviation. At the moment, it has only entered service with PLANAF. Based on the greater payload of JL-9G vs JJ-9, it seems like an aircraft that could also be adapted for light attack roles. It is a very low cost platform ($8.5 million each based on recent Chinese reports) and also extremely cheap to operate even compared to other AJTs. I would imagine the proposed FTC-2000G design could bring in sales in numerous countries that are currently using J-7s and K-8s. So while I would place GAIC below other major AVIC1 design bureaus like CAC and SAC, it has managed to develop an effective aircraft.<br /><br />Hongdu is a different story. It has been over 10 years since L-15 was displayed in the 2004 Zhuhai air show and almost 9 years since it made its maiden flight in March 2006. To this day, it still has yet to join service with PLAAF. Through much of this time, only 4 flying prototypes were produced. If it was not for the steady cash flow of K-8 series, it would be hard to see how this company could really survive the lack of progress in its next major project. The interesting part is that Hongdu did get order for 6 L-15s from Zambia in 2012 and 3 L-15s recently did test flights since the turn of new year. it's quite possible that they will all be delivered to Zambia in the first half of this year. There were also reports that Venezuela ordered 24 L-15s. Similar to the K-8 project, L-15 will most likely be delivered for export before even getting evaluated by PLA. JL-10, which is the Chinese version of L-15 AJT, had its maiden flight in 2013. Apparently, a small batch of JL-10 will be produced and delivered to FTTC this year for trial and evaluation. Only after that and possible more modifications will JL-10 join service with Also, there is always the question of engine. JL-8 did not join service with PLA until the domestic WS-11 engine available. It's quite possible that will also be the case with JL-10. As shown in the JJ-9 project, it took several year of trial and evaluation + changes before it went into production. If that happens, one can expect JL-10 to join service after the first J-20 regiment gets formed. By then, the domestic Minshan engine might be ready for JL-10 project. I think it speaks for Hongdu's ability as a design bureau that an AJT takes this long to get developed for PLAAF, but they do seem to be really good at selling their product. The K-8 project is still selling well after 300 export and 400 domestic order. L-15/JL-10 program can certainly follow K-8's path, because it is a fairly advanced AJT design that could also be adapted for other roles.<br /><br />So in summary, China has finally moved on from JJ-7 series of advanced jet trainers. Even so, JL-10 project is still a couple of years away from really joining service. By that point, it will serve as a good LIFT for the 5th generation fighter jet that China is developing.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2015/01/chinas-advanced-trainers.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-7790768273956369180Sat, 17 Jan 2015 15:40:00 +00002015-01-17T07:40:37.413-08:00More information on Type 071 class and the new 054AMost recently, China's 18th Flotilla to Aden <a href="http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/defence/portsmouth-welcomes-chinese-warships-for-week-long-visit-1-6515962">visited Portsmouth UK</a> for 5 days visit. This flotilla consisted of a Type 054A, a Type 071 and a Type 903A AOR.<br /><br />There were some photos released, but I think the most interesting part for me was how large Type 071 really is. Here are a couple of photos of its hangar and flight deck.<br /><a href="http://postimage.org/" target="_blank"><img src="http://s15.postimg.org/7gwn41njf/071_Flight_Deck_Jan13.jpg" width="400" /></a><br /><a href="http://postimage.org/" target="_blank"><img src="http://s15.postimg.org/emoe6hwmj/071_Hangar_Jan13.jpg" width="400" /></a><br /><a href="http://postimage.org/" target="_blank"><img src="http://s15.postimg.org/jk1yrlyln/071_Hangar_Jan13_2.jpg" width="400" /></a><br/>Based on a picture of the description of the ship, it's said to be able to carry 6 Z-8 helicopters in the hangar, which is 2 more than what i previously thought. Based on these photos, I think that's probably do-able once they are folded. The flight deck can easily launch multiple Z-8/9s. The same description also says that this ship can hold 4 Type 726 hovercraft in the well deck and carry a maximum of 65 amphibious assault vehicles. Now in practice, we've never seen more than 1 Type 726 hovercraft in the well deck, since they only have 3 of them in service. We've also never seen more than 2 Z-8s and 1 Z-9 on a Type 071, since naval helicopters are also in short supply with Chinese navy at the moment. I would imagine the maximum capacity of 65 AAVs is in a configuration where all of the well deck space and compartments in front of it are used to hold the AAVs. This also compares favorably to the number of vehicles that can be carried on a San Antonio class. No mention was made of how many troops could be carried, but it did mention a crew size of 156 people with 23 officers. That seems to be a pretty small number when one considers how many crew members are on each Type 056 ship (which is 1/10 the size). It did mention that helicopters can be used within 200 km of the ship. Hovercraft can be launched 60 km out from target and AAVs can be launched 20 km out from target. Other than that, it's similar in dimension to San Antonio class.<br/><br/>Also, a new variant of Type 054A joined Chinese navy recently with the East Sea Fleet. It's interesting that this new Type 054A took probably 8 months longer than usual to join service because of the changes incorporated in the shape including the new variable depth sonar and the new Type 1130 (11 barrel) CIWS, which should really improve the ASW and close-in air defense of this ship. It was speculated that the longer commissioning period is due to delays in the variable depth sonar development. Either way, this improved variant has now joined service and the next 3 units of this variant should also join service sometimes this year. After that, it's likely that we will need to wait sometimes before the next class of frigates to come out. In many ways, I think Type 054A class exceeded Chinese Naval requirements and the class has been wildly successful in modernizing Chinese navy. All of the major flotilla would have at least 2 Type 054A series ships by the end of its production run. I think it doesn't make sense to build next class after Type 054A for a few years. There are still many Type 053 ships that will need to be retired or transferred to coast guard. With all the Type 056 ships joining service, there really isn't any reason to keep any Jianghu class ships around. Even the earliest Jiangwei class should be decommissioned in the next few years.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2015/01/more-information-on-type-071-class-and.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-6860720323904235038Sun, 11 Jan 2015 00:16:00 +00002015-01-11T13:15:18.717-08:00State of Aerospace Engine for PLAThe issue of finding adequate and reliable engine has always been an issue for PLA. The navy seems to be getting by with license building advanced diesel engines, which are not under embargo, for most of its ships and some copied or home developed gas turbines for shipping class that need them. The air force has always seen delays due to problems in local production of engines for a series or waiting for Russian engine options. Shenyang AC has been quite unfortunate in having 2 of its recent aircraft programs (J-8F and J-11B) delayed due to issues with production of a new class domestic engine. I've talked in the past about the state of engine production in China, but was overly optimistic over the program in those cases. So, this entry will attempt to look at some of the domestic engine programs and their import programs.<br/><br/>First, the FWS-10 program is probably the most relevant to the current well being of PLA. We are at a point where all the recent J-11Bs have been produced with FWS-10 along with J-15S and J-16. I'm sure they are still working through problems with a new engine like FWS-10, but it's no longer problematic like early 2011, when SAC had many J-11Bs without engine seating out in its airfields. At that time, the Chinese air force simply refused to take those aircraft because issues with FWS-10. By this point, Russians were more careful about making sure their AL-31F did not end up on J-11B, so the project was basically on hold after that first regiment of J-11B join service with AL-31F. By now, we have seen 4 more J-11B regiments with PLAAF and 3 more J-11B regiments with PLANAF. Assuming that all of these regiments become full at some point this year, that would be approximately 7 x 24 = 168 J-11B/BS in service with FWS-10. Including the J-15/16 prototypes that SAC is building every year, I would guess easily 30 to 40 flankers are produced every year using FWS-10 as power plant. Assuming that a spare is produced for every 2 engines, the yearly production of FWS-10 could be over 100 at this point. So the question is why they are still using AL-31FN on J-10B and AL-31F on J-15. I think at this point they are developing a naval version of FWS-10 to last through the wear and tear of naval operation. At the same time, a higher thrust version is required to support the added take-off weight on J-16. Future flankers will continue to use WS-10 series. A J-10B prototype with FWS-10A is probably still being tested, but it would probably have to match the performance of AL-31FN series 3 (1000 ton more thrust than base layer) in order to be equipped on J-10B production batches. Also, the current J-20 prototypes are also most likely using AL-31FN series 3 engines. As we move forward, this version of AL-31FN is certainly not a viable option for production version of J-20. China can choose a later AL-31FN series that would be equivalent to AL-31FM2 or FM3, which would have comparable or more power than 117S engine that are used on Su-35 right now. If the upgraded variant of FWS-10 goes into production, that could be used in both J-20 or future batches of J-10B. So I would think the first few years of J-20 production (maybe 2 regiments) will be using underpowered engines (140 to 150 kN range with afterburner) and then WS-15 will go into production. Back in 2010, one of the few good Chinese sources on engines mentioned that WS-15 was probably 10 years from mass production based on where the program was at. Articles on WS-15 are hard to come by, but my guess is that they will start to test it out on fighter jet in a couple of years. After that, it will be a waiting game for certification.<br/><br/>The other major question is the status of the WS-13 program. Speculations over this program has been ongoing since JF-17 first went into production. Recently, a second batch of 100 RD-93 was signed with Russia. That would indicate continuing delays in the WS-13 program. At the same time, there was news in the middle of 2014 that Guizhou Liyang was putting significant investment into building a production line for WS-13. We know that RD-93 has been used on FC-31 technology demonstrator and also the Lijian UCAV technology demonstrator, but the vast majority of second batch of RD-93s are still allocated for JF-17. At some point, they will have to test out WS-13 with a batch of production JF-17s. It's possible that a portion of this second order will be used as spares/replacement, but the size of the RD-93 is confusing given the report of WS-13 production line. Going forward, I've talked about how FC-31 does not currently have a viable option for engine. It looks like an improved variant of RD-93, RD-93MA, is under development. When they do choose to move forward with the FC-31 project, I think the current solution of baseline RD-93 (or even WS-13) is too underpowered for even the pre-production batch. So in order to really go forward in FC-31, they have to use RD-93MA before the new 9500 kgf engine under development becomes ready sometimes in the next decade. WS-15 project has higher priority, so that will become ready first.<br/><br/>For the Y-20 project, the early prototypes are all using D-30KP2. D-30 is also used on the 2 regiment of H-6K (about 40 in total) that have recently joined service. A few years ago, it was speculated that a domestic variant of D-30KP2 (WS-18) was getting developed for Y-20 while the more advanced WS-20 engine was still getting ready. China's IL-76 engine testbed has been doing flight testing of WS-20 since 2013. Most recently, they just started doing flight testing of WS-18 on a separate IL-76 testbed. It seems strange rather the older WS-18 begins flight testing over a year after WS-20, but maybe this is aimed for H-6K bombers. Production version of Y-20 is likely to appear sometimes this year or the next, so they will be using the rather old D-30KP2 engine. It doesn't look like PLA is interested in the more advanced PS-90A or even D-30KP3, so Y-20 will be underpowered for a while. At this point, even a D-30KP2 powered Y-20 would be a force multiplier for PLAAF.<br/><br/>Turboshaft engines are not very heavily followed by PLA followers. As late as 10 years ago, issues with producing engine and other subsystems prevented mass production of the domestic helicopters. More recently, helicopter production has been increasing for both PLA and civilian ministries. Since upgraded variant of WZ-6 became available for the Z-8 series, Z-8 production has really taken off for all 3 arms. More recently, Z-18, military version of AC313, using WZ-6C engine is now in mass production for the navy and also the army. We have seen the new Z-18A used in the high altitude of Tibet, which shows how much improvement have been made for WZ-6C. If Huitong's figure of 1300 kw is accurate (and it seems to understated based on other sources), WZ-6C is competitive with PT6B-67A (around 1400 kw) slated for AC313. At the same time, production of Z-10 and Z-19 project have both been going pretty well and look to be sufficiently powered. It seems like production and usage of WZ-9 engine for Z-10 project has been going well. WZ-8 production for Z-9/Z-19 helicopters have been going well too. WZ-16 engine is been developed with France to power Z-15. It may or may not be usable in the future for other Chinese helicopters like Z-10. It seems like they have been able to develop upgraded variants of existing engines either by themselves or with the help of European companies. The only major remaining project that depends on the development of a new engine is Z-20. That is quite a huge improvement for China's engine industry.<br/><br/>Finally, there are some other engines been developed (either new project or copying Russian/Ukrainian engines) for UAVs, missiles and trainer projects. They get much less news, but we do see their appearance sometimes in Zhuhai air show. Very recently, we saw Chengfa finish development on one of those projects. So, this is a rundown on China's engine developments. Similar to 5 years ago, this area remains the achilles heel for the Chinese military industrial complex.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2015/01/state-of-aerospace-engine-for-pla.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-1822901167776680364Sun, 04 Jan 2015 04:25:00 +00002015-01-03T20:25:38.956-08:00Things to watch out for in 2015 for PLANI did a review of PLAN in 2014 a few weeks ago. Since then, a couple of more surface combatants have launched at various PLAN shipyards. It was certainly an active year for them, but this entry will take a look at active naval building programs for 2015 and beyond.<br/><br/>I want to first take a look at Aircraft Carrier project. In 2014, CV-16 went on a couple of patrols, but also spent a large period of time at dock going through maintenance and repairs. These patrols were probably more like sea trial and training opportunities for CV-16 crew member. I think there was some pictures earlier in 2014 of a large exercise that CV-16 took part with the several major surface combatants, but that maybe the only real exercise it has participated in so far. Also, the flight program off CV-16 has not really moved forward in 2014. We have basically seen the same 3 or 4 J-15 prototypes taking off and landing from CV-16. On top of that, while the first batch of production version of J-15s started in 2013, we have seen only up to 8 produced so far in over a year. PLAN may be choosing to produce the production J-15s slowly as they are working through any of the issues found in testing, since they don't need that many J-15s for operation off CV-16 and their naval aviation training center. Also, it goes to show that the process of developing and training a naval air wing is a long and deliberate process. In 2015, it will be interesting to see if more J-15s start to operate off CV-16, since 2014 has been quite slow in that aspect. Also, while the production of domestic carrier may have started or will start this year, I don't expect to see anything meaningful until probably 2016. I expect it to be delivered by 2019 to 2020.<br/><br/>Amphibious ships - I've talked about the resumption of Type 071 and Type 072 production a little bit in the previous entries. For the latter, WC shipyard has taken over production and have been launching them pretty quickly. We may see 8 Type 072s produced at WC shipyard for replacing older Type 072 or for expanding PLAN capabilities in South China Sea. For the Type 071, HD shipyard has resumed their production after a 3 year layoff. This most current batch of Type 071s is probably similar in external appearance to the original Type 071 even if the internal subsystems may have all been upgraded. In the original Type 071, PLAN lowered the production cost (to around $200 million) by using very light self defense systems and older generation of combat system. Each Type 071 is only equipped with a 76 mm main gun + 4 AK-630 CIWS with 2 pairs of fire channel, so it will have to rely on escort. Even HHQ-7 SAM, which is an older SAM found on older ships, was not installed even though space was left for short ranged SAM to be installed at a later point. Based on what I've read, it seems like this new batch of Type 071s are still using the same light self defense system (probably due to cost reasons again) even though earlier designs had added more advanced weaponry like HQ-10 SAM and Type 1130 CIWS. Once these new systems become cheaper and more mature, we may see an upgraded variant Type 071A with them. At the same time, there is talk of a Type 075 amphibious assault ship (LPH) coming out, but that is probably also something that will appear in a couple of years. Aside from the landing ships, the landing crafts have been a little confusing. The status of the Zubr program is unknown after Crimea came under Russian control. It looks like China has continued domestic production of Zubr, but not sure whether Russians or Ukrainians are assisting the project right now. Type 726 hovercraft production does not seem to pick up, so it's unclear if PLAN plans to have more than one of them per Type 071.<br/><br/>Surface combatants - This is probably the area that's easiest to see the progress of PLAN modernization, since all of the shipyards around the country are building them in open. Type 052C production should come to close this year when the 6th ship of the class, which already has number painted, joins service. Type 052D production is fully under way after the lead ship joined service in April. Four other 052Ds from JN are already launched with the remaining 3 likely to all launch this year. Out of these 7 ships, two of them will probably join service this year. Dalian shipyard also received order for 4 052Ds and the first one will probably launch this year. After Type 052D, it appears that work for the Type 055 cruiser has started at JN shipyard. Although, I think we are unlikely to see modules for it this year. In the next few years, both JN and Dalian shipyard should be producing them. In the 054 series, the final 4 Type 054A with upgraded CIWS and sonar suite are all likely to be commissioned in 2015. Type 054B may appear later this year. Due to the size of existing hull and propulsion, I think there is a limit on how much it can change from 054A. Finally, 18 Type 056 light frigates have already joined service and at least 6 other ones have been launched. I would that all 6 of the launched ones should join service by the end of this year with more new hulls launching. The production run of Type 056 is already quite significant, so all of the ordered ships maybe launched by the end of this year. Type 056 series has already received export orders from Bangladeshi Navy. It seems like a good design to receive more export deals going forward.<br/><br/>There are numerous other important programs that are ongoing obviously. The conventional and nuclear submarine programs are both ongoing, but harder than surface combatants to verify their current status or service status. Numerous large AORs, replenishment ships and AGI ships were launched this year and should join service the next 2 years. The project to look out for is a new class of large AORs in the 40000+ ton range designed to support carrier group. The existing AORs are sufficient for missions like Gulf of Aden with smaller number of surface combatants, but a larger one would be sufficient for PLAN's blue water goals.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2015/01/things-to-watch-out-for-in-2015-for-plan.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-5332915942214154018Fri, 26 Dec 2014 03:16:00 +00002014-12-25T19:16:09.743-08:00China 5th generation project and RussiaIt's always interesting for me to look back 10 years to see where things were to see how much have changed. I often do this with surface combatants because 10 years ago China did not have a fleet of 054/As or 052C/D or Type 071s or Type 056 that now form the backbone of their navy. It's less apparent when we look at the air force because China still has many J-7/8s around and still severely lacks strategic transport, tankers, large AEWC&C and helicopters.<br/><br/>Recently, I have been looking at J-20 progress and wondering about whether or not it is ahead of PAK-FA. I also have been talking with some people on India's participation in the PAK-FA program. Looking back now, was it possible for China to join the PAK-FA project with Russia instead of India (India would go for F-35 + MCA)? This is important question because India's participation in PAK-FA program means that China would probably not be able to buy PAK-FA until a much later point if at all.<br/><br/>Looking back on things, it's hard to see how things could have turned out differently. At the time, India was still buying most of its weapons from Russia, since it was not yet getting access to the most advanced US hardware. Russia also trusted India more than China, so was willing to give access to more advanced systems. In this case, it offered the co-development opportunity to India, which happily took up the offer. China at the time had just welcomed J-10 into service after 18 years of development and was in the process of indigenizing flankers. Although China had already started working on the 5th generation R&D, it was unclear just how long it would take them to finish. These efforts were given the designation J-XX and speculations ran wild on SAC's work on them. There were speculations on Chinese sites that this project would be ready by 2015. All of that were wild speculations that by now have been invalidated. Given the amount of R&D required to develop a 5th generation aircraft, it was unclear if China would be able to have something in service before 2025. For someone like me that was outside of the situation, I would've recommended to China to co-develop with Russia as well as work on its own program if the former was offered. That way, China has something that is reasonable capable if the domestic program does not progress on schedule. It would also have to divert resource, so would only have one domestic program focusing on a medium sized design. One of CAC or SAC will license produce the co-development and the other one produce the indigenous fighter jet. Even though China could afford to fund two such projects, this kind of investment would certainly divert money from improving domestic industry at a time when it was growing without Russian help.<br/><br/>We know that the Russian cooperation with China since 1992 have been very beneficial to China. China at that time already knew Western companies were very good at guarding its secrets and unlikely to assist China's modernization efforts. Russian companies simply lacked that expertise, so it sold a lot of technology to China quite cheaply. By early 2000, China had already obtained most of the non-strategic and matured weapon that it wanted from Russia. As Russia would see later on, China was also very good at copying the stuff that it liked. At this time, Russia had to offer China weapon system that was still in development stage to China. In the case of Su-30MKK, the project was delivered very quickly by KNAAPO, because China was looking for something that was rather mature. So while the avionics were not very impressive, China did get something that was able to carry a lot of payload and have long range. China has since used its experience with this platform to develop J-16. While some of the weapons that came with Su-30MKK were mature and got delivered at the same time, other subsystems were still to be delivered and came way behind schedule like SAPSAN-E. Similarly, while Russians were able to deliver things they already developed very quickly and cheaply, the development of new subsystems were late more often than not. Even though J-10s have been getting AL-31FN engines on time for years, the 99M project that China funded have lagged behind 117S development to the point that China has been considering Su-35 purchase just to access 117S. At the same time, PLAAF must have had a lot of confidence in the continued improvement of AVIC1 and the progress of their R&D to believe that they will be able to complete the projects in a reasonable manner.<br/><br/>Back a year ago at this point, it looked like the PAK-FA was quite ahead of J-20, since it had 5 vs 2 flying prototypes. Since then, we found out that China was planning some major changes that moved J-20 off the demonstration phase and produced 4 J-20 prototypes this year in what looks to be LRIP. PAK-FA's T-50-5 prototype suffered fire problems in a demonstration in front Indian representatives in June and that may have slowed down the program somewhat. Even so, I would imagine PAK-FA program have had far more test flights than J-20. However, there is speculation that a 2nd stage of PAK-FA development is coming with some major changes in store. I guess these changes are to address deficiencies found in the flight tests of the first prototypes. It would be interesting to see if the level of changes will be the same as we saw on No. 2011, but the new PAK-FA prototypes should be more cleaned up that are closer to production version. Since J-20 prototypes are already at that point now, it could be the case that J-20's airframe is now further ahead in development than PAK-FA. As far as the subsystems, I think J-20's engine solution is a bigger issue now than PAK-FA, because it's probably using AL-31FN Series 3 which would have less thrust (13.5 ton) than Type 117. Even further iterations of AL-31FN series is likely to have less power than Type 117, which is probably why China is trying to get Type 117S. This effort also points to uncertainty to the improved variant of FWS-10 engine. For the long run, it appears China's WS-15 project will probably be ready for mass production at around the same time as Russia's Izdeliye 30 project. I think out of everything, J-20's avionics subsystems are probably further ahead than that of Russia. The AESA radar, modern MMI and the integrated electronic system for the modern network centric warfare will be tested on J-10 series first. While it's hard to predict what level all of this will be, J-20's subsystems will not be China or CAC's first kick at the can. For example, J-20's radar will most likely use GaN T/R modules rather than GaA T/R modules. Russia is still in the process of bringing down the cost of producing GaA T/R modules and PAK-FA will be their first fighter jet to use AESA radar. We should get a better idea of the progress of the two project by this point next year, since the 2nd stage prototypes of PAK-FA should come out by then. With the appearance of FC-31 project, it certainly seems like China is better off going alone even if it had been offered co-development of PAK-FA. At this point, J-20 looks slightly closer to joining service than PAK-FA (albeit with underpowered engine) and also looks to be far more stealthy than PAK-FA.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2014/12/china-5th-generation-project-and-russia.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-2820480907188358083Sun, 21 Dec 2014 03:16:00 +00002014-12-20T19:16:48.618-08:002014 PLAAF Year in ReviewThis was a particularly eventful year for PLAAF when one looks at the progress of the various new projects. The most noticeable of which is J-20, but this most will look at various other projects too.<br/><br/>Coming into this year, the J-20 project seemed to be a little behind schedule compared to PAK-FA. There were a lot of questions about when the 3rd flying prototypes will come out. Earlier on, we saw the appearance of a heavily modified prototype No. 2011 which first flew in March. As previously discussed, this prototype really transitioned the project from the concept/demonstration phase to pre-production engineering phase. The next prototype No. 2012 appeared in July and had its maiden flight near the end of the month. Most recently, prototype No. 2013 and 2015 appeared in quick succession in the past month and had their first flights. These 2 prototypes have their pitot tubes removed. Speculations have been that No. 2016 and 2017 will also appear soon to join the flight testing phase. With the quick succession of these prototypes, it appears that J-20 may have moved into LRIP. I have in the past compared these prototypes to F-22's EMD phase, which had 9 flying prototypes. Bu in that case, the 9th EMD first flew 5 years after the first EMD. So it seems like J-20 is using a more aggressive flight testing program. We know that there is already a radar testbed testing out J-20's radar and possibly other avionics. So next year, we should see more of the initial prototypes coming out and getting transferred to CFTE for flight test programs. At some point, I think we should see J-20 prototypes starting to using domestic engine options. We should also see J-20s starting to be delivered to FTTC for developing tactics and testing out flight envelopes. But a lot of that stuff really cannot be tested fully until WS-15 becomes available. Despite all of the fast progress by CAC the past year, it's unclear what they will do with the engine problem. The earlier J-20s will probably use an underpowered engine.<br/><br/>The other project that received a lot of attention this year is FC-31, because of its appearance at Zhuhai air show. From what we've seen, it is still in the conceptual demonstrator phase waiting to get picked by PLA. J-20's first 2 prototypes were probably further along than No. 31001, so this project is several years behind J-20. PLAAF have the option of going with hi-lo option of J-20 and FC-31 or J-20 and some heavily modified variant of J-10. The next generation of naval aviation can either go with a naval variant of FC-31 or something completely different. At this point, it does look like FC-31 will be picked up by PLAAF and the official version will feature much changes compared to No. 31001. They will probably have to use some under powered interim option from Russia in the beginning while the domestic option is even further behind than WS-15.<br/><br/>J-10 program was in the background this year, but it may have been the most active PLAAF program. J-10A production and delivery continued into this year. J-10B production finally started at end of last year after a very long flight testing period, but the production level this year has been quite high. Most recently, the 48th J-10B came out. We've seen one brigade of J-10B joining service with FTTC aggressor squad. A second regiment/brigade will also be formed from this year's production. After this first batch of J-10B production, things are a little muddled. We saw a J-10B in primers with factory number 201 that came out at end of last year with some minor changes from the first batch of J-10Bs. Chinese bbs have speculated that this is the first of J-10C variant. The big speculation is that J-10C will be using AESA radar (as opposed to PESA on J-10B) and improved avionics compared to J-10B. I'm not sure that really deserves a new variant, but it seems like this particular aircraft has went through more flight testing than a usual production aircraft. So the second batch will definitely be different from the first batch. This second batch should be the first PLAAF aircraft to be equipped with AESA radar.<br/><br/>We did not see as much movement with flankers this year. It seems like more J-11B regiment joined service, but J-15 and J-16 project did not seem to move much. There is speculations that one or both programs may be waiting for an improved variant of WS-10 engine to become available.<br/><br/>Outside of that, we saw a lot of Y-20 program this year when it appeared at Zhuhai airshow. It seems like flight testing is going pretty well and the aircraft is likely to join service in a couple of years. Y-9 production has continued along with different special missions aircraft using Y-9 airframe. KJ-500 may be the most high profile of these projects. A recent satellite photo shows 3 KJ-500 at SAC airfield. The big challenge for the Chinese aviation industry is to be able to build more of these Y-9, Y-20 and other transport airframes to support various PLAAF operations. At current time, PLAAF is still relying on IL-76/78 series for transport airframe and aerial tanker.<br/><br/>As with all other recent Zhuhai air shows, we saw many UAVs, PGMs and missiles displayed this year. The GJ-1 Wing Loong project finally joined service this year and participated in Peace Mission 2014 exercises after years of display at various defense exhibits and export deals to UAE and Saudi Arabia. The next major UAV/UCAV projects to watch for are XiangLong and Lijian.<br/><br/>So this was definitely a more eventful year for PLAAF than the last couple of years when I had hard time writing the reviews. I didn't really talk about helicopter project as much because the progress in Z-18 were mostly covered by PLAN review. For next year, I would say the continued progress of J-20/31 will be the most followed items. But for me, the second batch of J-10B/C and the induction of J-16 will be just as interesting. They will be the main heavyweight in PLAAF for the next couple of years.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2014/12/2014-plaaf-year-in-review.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-8259311783543731889Wed, 10 Dec 2014 08:08:00 +00002014-12-10T00:08:25.252-08:002014 PLAN in reviewAs usual, I’m taking a look at this time of the year of all the things that has happened to PLAN. 2014 has been an active year like 2013, so it’s a good time to look over what they are doing and where they are going.<br /><br />Aircraft Carrier - I think PLAN is making very cautious steps in developing their naval aviation capabilities. CV-16 Liaoning spent a large part of the year in Dalian going through regular maintenance and overhaul before going on another long sea trial afterward. At this point, I think the intensity of flight operation training still have not increased much from when it first joined service. It looks like most of the sea trials are aimed at testing out different subsystems (like propulsion unit, electric generator, radar installations) and the sea worthiness of CV-16. Most of the pictures of take off and landing exercises are still taken with the J-15 prototypes rather than the production ones. It’s quite possible that they are practicing takeoff and landing on the land based training facilities before putting them on the carrier. So in the upcoming year, hopefully we will see more J-15s on CV-16 conducting carrier operations out in the sea. One encouraging sign from this year is the abundance of new Z-18 based helicopters for a variety of roles (transport, AEW and ASW/SAR) that seem to becoming ready for service. The induction of these helicopters and training on CV-16 is an important part of operationalizing CV-16.<br /><br />Amphibious Vessels - After a couple of years of rest, they have restarted the production of amphibious landing ships in Type 071 and 072 series. As I wrote the past few years, they have continued to conduct a variety of new amphibious landing exercises with Type 071, 072, Type 726 LCACs, amphibious armored vehicles, Z-18 transports and even Z-10 helicopters in these exercises. I think they needed these years of training and exercises to determine what changes needed to be made to the newer Type 071/072s. It sounds like they originally planned for this new batch of Type 071 to have more firepower but ended up going for more lightly armed version like the earlier Type 071s. It will be interesting to see what differences will be to accommodate their developing amphibious warfare doctrine. I think the deliberate pace of operationalizing and training Type 071 with the marines is a good starting point of reference to see how long it will take them to develop carrier operations. One would obviously expect carrier operations to take longer to develop, but Type 071 spent its first couple of years going through going through long sea trials and commanding flotilla that we are seeing with CV-16 right now. At the same time, we can expect the future LHD design to go through the same process that we have seen with Type 071. They have shown numerous LHD designs for export in various naval exhibit, but it seems like the domestic version will be a lot larger with more landing spots and greater hangar space. Hopefully, we will start seeing that late next year. The other amphibious project is Zubr, which picked up pace this year when the Ukrainians delivered the second one earlier as a result of the Crimea conflict. It will be interesting to see how many Zubrs China end up building.<br /><br />Large Surface combatant - There were 2 major developments this year with the induction of the first 052D and the appearance of the Type 055 land based simulator. The induction of No. 172 was surprising because the last 2 Type 052Cs had not been commissioned at that point. Even now, the commission status of the last Type 052Cs is a little ambiguous. It seems like the induction of No. 172 was fast tracked to allow PLAN to start testing out all the new systems that they have incorporated onto and developing tactics on using it. The following 052D, especially the 4 other ones that are launched at JN shipyard, could really benefit from the lessons they learnt from PLAN’s experience with No. 172. On the other hand, the last 2 Types 052Cs were under no similar pressure, so they’ve had a much longer induction process. I’m sure the actual crew has already been training on them for a while (based on their photos from the ZhouShan naval base with the 3rd and 4th 052Cs), so they have yet to be inducted. The Type 055 land based simulator really caused a lot of excitement earlier this year, because it had been speculated on Chinese forum for a while now. Considering that PLAN has only built similar simulators for carrier and nuclear submarine project, one can surmise this platform is held with the highest regards. We have yet to see Type 055 modules at JN or Dalian shipyard, but I think that will start to come out next year as Type 052D production start to wind down. Also, it would be interesting to finally see Dalian built Type 052Ds, since JN is already so far along in this program. Finally, it sounds like the Sov program will finally go forward with modernization. There was a picture of one of the Sovs at the shipyard recently with a lot of scaffoldings. Since they will have to replace all the Russian subsystem with Chinese ones, I would think that the modernization would be even more extensive than what we saw with the 2 Type 052A ships. Even though this kind of modernization is quite costly, PLAN does prefer that to decommissioning and building new ones. After that, the only candidate left for modernization will be No. 167. I think retiring this ship in 5 years makes more sense than modernizing it again since it was originally built as more of an experimental platform to test out 6000-ton class of surface combatants for PLAN. At this point, there is not a lot of value to keep around such the only hull of this experimental class.<br /><br />Smaller Surface combatants - This year, we saw that the new Type 054As been built at HP and HD shipyard had numerous improvements over all of the earlier ones. The biggest change was the installation of the VDS on top of the TAS installation to really improve the ASW capabilities of these ships. I think that the commissioning of the 4 Type 054As at these shipyards have been slow because of the new VDS system. After that, I think they would move on with the next major iteration of Type 054 project, so these last 4 are testing subsystems that will be used there. Also, we saw a bunch of new Type 056s been commissioned this year. HD and HP shipyard have been leading the way, but the other 2 shipyards have also been launching at a fast rate. A new Type 056 variant (dubbed 056A) is now been built that have VDS installed in the back. It looks like this one is just better equipped for ASW mission than the earlier ones. As I talked about in a previous entry, I think we have seen some real development in improving hardware for ASW missions on various ships. This is reminiscent of 5 years ago, when PLAN really started to build ships with technology to handle AAW missions. The other product of the improving Chinese naval ship production is the number of export contract that they have been winning. Just recently, we have seen the launch of the second P-18N OPV for Nigeria and the first export version of Type 056 for Bangladesh. This is on top of the C-28A, P-18N and Ghanaian patrol boat that were built earlier this year. Starting from F-22P project with Pakistani Navy, Chinese shipyard have been doing well in export market of the smaller ship classes (OPVs, light frigates and patrol boats). Going forward, I think the next step is for them to win more contracts of diesel submarines, larger surface combatants and amphibious landing docks. Type 056 is a good design that could be attractive to many smaller navies around the world.<br /><br />Submarines – I think they have started building a new variant of Type 039B Yuan submarine this year with a more hydrodynamic sail, but it’s hard to quantify how many of these submarines are launched at the moment. We know that at least 4 Type 039A and 8 of the earlier Type 039Bs are in service in East Sea Fleet and North Sea Fleet. After a couple of years of hectic production, Yuan production seems to have slowed down. I hope they are taking the time to develop a newer and more advanced diesel submarine design. It is possible their discussion with the Russians on using the Lada hull will be finalized next year, but China has pretty demanding positions. I think China only want the Russian hull design at this point (and fitted with Chinese AIP engine, electronics, sonar and weaponry), but the Russians might not be happy with such an exchange. There is a lot more secrecy around the nuclear program, but it seems to me that the new modified Type 093 class is still in sea trials. More GE photos are needed to see further progress.<br /><br />Auxiliary fleet - The large auxiliary ships have also been building across various shipyards. At GSI shipyard, we have seen the 5th Type 903A AOR and the 2nd Type 904 supply ship launched this year. The former should continue to compliment China’s blue water fleet and the latter will join No. 888 in supplying the naval bases that China is building in South China Sea. Going forward, I think larger AORs will be launched, since something larger is needed to support a carrier strike group. At GSI shipyard, we also saw a new large submarine cable laying ship launched recently. Not much more info about it is available at this point. HD shipyard was also busy with these larger ships. We saw the 4th test ship No. 894 join service this year. It’s kind of baffling to me that they need this many test ships, but I guess they really just have a lot of new subsystems to test out. Two Type 815B AGI ships were launched this year. They are an improved version of Type 815 AGI ship that HD shipyard built earlier. They should probably join service next year and augment the three AGI ships that they have in service. And finally, China has continued to build newer Type 081 minesweepers. I think the older Type 6605/6610 minesweepers should be retiring soon, so the Type 081 production should continue into next year.<br /><br />Cutters – China’s coastal guard fleet (Maritime police agency) has also been really on a massive expansion this past year. HP and WC shipyard have been leading the way with a bunch of 5000-ton, 4000-ton, 3000-ton and 1-ton class cutters for the costal fleet. Prior to the merger of 4 of the 5 maritime agencies, these had already been ordered the expansion of CMS national/regional fleet and FLEC fleet. Since merger, they are being built for the same agency but probably still for the same roles. The many provincial coastal guard flotillas will now be equipped with these new cutters for maritime disputes in East and South China Sea. JN is building two 12000-ton class cutters with the first one recently launched. They are not large warships that will be terrorizing East China Sea contrary to some speculations. Outside of these larger cutters, a lot of smaller 600-ton and 300-ton class cutters are being built in the smaller shipyards around the country. The other thing we see is a lot of rescue ships and scientific research ships being built at HP shipyard and smaller shipyards. Out of all the shipyards, HP seems to have been getting most of the orders and have really been building them at a very fast pace. WC had historically been building most of them, but has been launching them a lot slower than HP.<br /><br />So overall, another really active year in the Chinese shipyards and things are not likely to slow down in 2015. I will actively looking for the appearance of LHD and Type 055 modules in the coming year along with more news on the nuclear submarine fleet. http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2014/12/2014-plan-in-review.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-3888436326503871259Sun, 16 Nov 2014 04:17:00 +00002014-11-15T20:17:03.552-08:00Zhuhai airshow and other PLAAF newsThe time around Zhuhai air show is always interesting for PLA followers, because we see a whole bunch of new models displayed. This year was no different. A lot of pictures of different PGMs, ground attack missiles, army vehicles and air defense systems came out before the show even started. In many ways, Zhuhai is more like a defense exhibition rather than an air show. All of these systems are displayed for export purposes and many of them will never serve in PLA. The two items that attracted the most attention were FC-31 and Y-20.<br/><br/>For the latter, we saw pictures of it next to C-17 and IL-76. It was quite interesting also to see the current medium transport Y-9 side by side with Y-20's prototype 783. We also found out that a Y-30 turboprop medium transport is coming out to either replace Y-9 or compliment Y-9/Y-20. Either way, there is good progress in this area for China that has long been needed. The bigger issue is whether or not AVIC1 can build up the industrial capabilities to produce large numbers of this class of transport. American aerospace companies are far more technologically advanced than AVIC1. Just as significantly, Boeing and Lockheed has the ability to mass produce large numbers of aircraft that AVIC1 currently simply do not have the capacity to do. Lockheed can produce well over 100 F-35 a year in the future and have the ability to produce 500 F-16s a year. CAC produces around 50 J-10s in a high production year. Chinese naval shipyard have been able to produce large number of high quality ships because domestic shipyards have developed very advanced shipbuilding capabilities as well as high quality management from all of the civilian shipbuilding projects. As a result of the COMAC's C-919 and ARJ-21 project, China's aerospace industry will also develop greater industrial capability to produce airliners. AS this is happening, AVIC1 subsidiaries are developing more efficient production and assembly process. It will be interesting to watch how well this affect the production of Y-20 transport, new UAVs and next generation fighter jets.<br/><br/>FC-31 definitely drew more attention from the Western press. It's always amusing for me to read eye catching headlines about a jet that we have seen for a couple of years. Thankfully, there were a couple of articles that got me to think a little more. Reuben Johnson from JDW <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/13/world/asia/china-stealth-fighter-analysis/">wrote a CNN article</a> that is rather unflattering on FC-31. He was not very high on the flight performance of the jet. I think he is making a rather presumptuous judgement here, because this is quite a concept demonstration mule as I've explained in the past. Based on the picture of the FC-31 model from the air show, David Axe has already written an article on <a href="https://medium.com/war-is-boring/chinas-stealth-fighter-could-get-a-lot-better-7fa16ad578fb">War is boring</a> on what could change on FC-31. From air show interview, it sounds like that both an export and domestic version of the aircraft will be developed. The latter case is dependent on PLAAF orders. I would think that if this proof of concept aircraft did not achieve the desired flight performance of PLAAF, SAC would have to go back to the drawing board and make some serious changes. When J-20 project came out with its demonstrator prototypes, it was already a PLAAF sanctioned project, so 2 flying prototypes + probably 2 static prototypes were built to be tested out before they went through the major incremental change with the appearance of No. 2011. When one thinks about, it's quite an impressive achievement to go from conceptual prototypes to pre-production prototypes in just over 3 years. It looks like we will see at least 3 new J-20 prototypes this year with the possibility of a 4th one. The J-20 is really making a big push this year. In comparison, FC-31 may go through a major redesign just to satisfy PLAAF requirements and then another big change to correct the issues found in the first redesign. We've seen this with Soaring Dragon UAV project where CAC/GAIC made siginficant changes based on issues found in the demonstrator aircraft. The change was so large that I thought a new UAV project came out when the redesigned aircraft came out. Regardless of Chinese bbs speculations, FC-31 is years away due to lack of appropriate engine options for the next few years. I would think it to be prudent to take the time to make sure the final design achieves all of PLAAF requirements.<br/><br/>Outside of the air show aircraft, we also saw some interesting movement with production aircraft. It looks like we have finally detected a first operational unit of J-10B aircraft. Although the unit numbers are smudged in the photos, these first production J-10B looks to be forming a new FTTC brigade (maybe Brigade No. 169). That is not too surprising since J-10A also joined FTTC before the first operational regiment was established in 44th division. Enough J-10B have been produced in this first batch for 2 operational units, so I would imagine the first non-FTTC unit would also be established this year. The first batch of J-10Bs should all be using AL-31FN series 3 engines which have increased service life and thrust over the earlier series. In a recent interview with 606th Institute rep at the Zhuhai air show, it was claimed that a 14000 kgf thrust version of WS-10 engine have been developed that may be installed on J-10B in the future. If that version is in production, it would represent an engine option that's competitive with what the Russians are offering, so we may finally see J-10B installed with domestic options in the future. Continued improvement in WS-10 engine would also be very helpful to the J-20 program.<br/><br/>The other interesting development is the first production brigade of GJ-1 (Wing Loong) UAV with 151st brigade. Huitong's website claims this brigade is with FTTC and was operational for this year's SCO military exercises. The development timeline of GJ-1 project is quite interesting. We first saw Wing Loong (aka Yilong) display in 2008 Zhuhai airshow. At that time, it had already made its maiden flight in 2007 and conducted flight & ordinance testing. We continued to see its displays in 2009 to 2011 with some major modifications like the appearance of head bulge similar to RQ-4. By the time we saw the production version in 2012 airshow, it came with ground attack weapons, air attack missiles, E/O sensors, Satcom antenna and ground control station. UAE was already identified as the first export customer. Saudi Arabia and Uzbekistan have also purchased unknown numbers. So from the first flight of demonstrator to induction into PLAAF takes about 6 years. It could be shorter for export opportunities depending on the needs of the customer. If we translate this timeline to CAC's Soar Dragon HALE UAV project, the China hawk would join service around 2017. The even more advanced Lijian UCAV project from SAC first flew last year and might join service by the end of this decade. Out of all the UAV projects, Lijian UCAV maybe the most important going forward. It is probably dependent on the success of the WS-13 turbofan engine and also the next generation engine designed for FC-31. The recurring theme here is that the WS-13 engine developed for JF-17 project (and can be used by other project) has unknown status even after years of development. The next generation engine of this class has lower priority than WS-15 and is years away from completion.<br/><br/>So as usual, a lot of interesting development, but domestic engine options are holding them back.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2014/11/zhuhai-airshow-and-other-plaaf-news.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-4219810178377413655Sun, 26 Oct 2014 23:34:00 +00002014-10-26T16:34:03.632-07:00Small update on China's 5h gen projectMost recently, we've seen a set of 3 photos coming out of CFTE testing center at Yanliang. The test aircraft in question were J-20 prototype No 2012, Y-20 prototype No. 783 and Y-8FQ (ASW variant) prototype No. 731. All 3 of these projects are obviously very important, but J-20 has the special distinction as China's first 5th gen fighter jet project. This entry just provides a quick look at where China is with its 5th generation project.<br/><br/>Earlier this year, J-20's Prototype No. 2011 came out with significant changes from the earlier prototypes. It was quite clear at that time J-20 project has advanced from the demonstrator stage to pre-production prototypes. When prototype No. 2012 came out in July, PLA followers compared the new prototype to No. 2011. As expected from previous analysis, not much has changed from No. 2011 to No. 2012. As this projects continue to progress, it's likely that no further major changes will be made before certification unless problems are detected in flight tests. I would expect some changes to be made at the rear when domestic 5th generation engine becomes available for testing, but we are a couple of years away from that. No. 2012 had its maiden flight on July 26th and was delivered to CFTE recently for PLA flight tests. At the time No. 2012 appeared, there were a lot of rumors online that 2 more prototypes (No. 2013 and 2014) are likely to come out before the end of the year for flight testing. I would also expect there to be a couple of more prototypes built for static testing. Based on J-10 project where 4 pre-production prototypes (No. 1013 to 1016), this might be all the prototypes that are needed to complete the flight tests. Of course, J-10 had more initial prototypes, but CAC at that time probably needed more time and prototypes to settle on the final design. After these pre-production flight test prototypes are delivered, CAC will probably start producing initial production variant and then deliver them to FTTC for developing combat tactics, flight techniques, training programs for new aircraft and conducting certification of J-20. Further prototypes for the J-20 project will be delivered to CFTE if any major changes are made to the aircraft or when new engine (like WS-15) becomes ready.<br/><br/>More recently, we have seen a bunch of flight testing photos of prototype No. 31001 posted online. This led to a lot of speculations online surrounding the status of the project. I've even read online that some Chinese military expert proclaimed serial production will start within five years for this project. Now, I personally think that's complete nonsense. At this point, this project still seems to be at demonstrator phase. It looks like a model of this aircraft might appear at Zhuhai air show for export interest. I do expect PLAAF to pick up this project to create a high-lo combination with J-20. While it will most likely be given the designation of J-31, I try not to settle on that name yet in case it gets a different designation in the end. The problem with this project is that the lack of available engine options. We know J-20's final production variant will be using WS-15. Even though that engine is not ready, it has been worked for a while and should become available for flight testing in a few years. Until then, upgraded variants of WS-10 engine could be used in the first batch of J-20s. For J-31, there is no current domestic option for flight testing, since WS-13 is not certified yet. The development for this next generation engine in its class began more recently and is not given the same level of importance as WS-15. Even if PLAAF picks up this project in the next year, all of the initial testing would be done using an engine whose power and propulsion will be quite different from the eventual engine. So, I always thought that this project will go into service probably 5 years after J-20 does.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2014/10/small-update-on-chinas-5h-gen-project.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-7019469978626048862Thu, 23 Oct 2014 20:56:00 +00002014-10-23T13:56:43.693-07:00A recent CV-16 article and trouble with interpreting Chinese sourcesThere was a recent entry on <a href="https://medium.com/war-is-boring/chinas-aircraft-carrier-trouble-spewing-steam-and-losing-power-29dae6cd9fdf">War is boring</a> which later got published on business insider talking about trouble that China is having with engine compartment of CV-16 in recent sea trials. As usual, such articles created a lot of debates on Chinese military forums.<br/><br/>Now, I have actually watched the original CCTV news report that this story is based on. It mentioned that CV-16 has just completed 6 months of maintenance and overhaul at Dalian shipyard before going out to sea again. The report focused on the electrical department of CV-16. Traditionally, it has been customary of Chinese news reports to interview naval personnel, talk about one challenge they had to deal with to give audience an idea of the challenges facing these sailors and then emphasize how their great works saved the ship or mission. These kind of new reports are common and are tools used to foster patriotism in the population. So in this particular praise, this news report was trying to praise the works of the electrical department of CV-16 and give the impression to Chinese population that the Chinese navy is making great progress with its historical mission. In reality, any real life and death scenario would probably be considered confidential and never reported on Chinese news.<br/><br/>Back to the war is boring article, it appears to me the author does not understand the context of such news report. He summarized that China is having a lot of problems with CV-16 and especially with its engines. What we do know is that Chinese navy is at its infancy when it comes to naval aviation and working hard to improve capabilities. We also know that while CV-16 has spent a lot of times at shipyard, it has also spent a lot of times in the ocean. Currently, it has been out on sea trials for 50 days after 6 months at shipyard. Even the most competent navy USN could have engine problems on a long deployment, because complex machines like the naval propulsion systems do breakdown. So it is completely expected that CV-16 would suffer breakdowns on various subsystems while on sea trials or deployment. We know that the problem was identified and fixed quickly without delaying take off/landing training of that day. That tells us the mishap was not major. The original news report was trying to show the head of electrical department is good at identifying problems in his department and working to fix them while at sea. These are all good signs for Chinese navy going forward. That is not a surprise, since these reports are meant as positive propaganda for the population. The irony of this story is that real problems with CV-16 power plant would never get reported on CCTV.<br/><br/>So I think this shows that a lot of experience and cultural knowledge is needed to decipher Chinese military news. Since PLA is still lacking transparency compared to most military around the world and most of their articles are in Chinese, English articles talking about news reports coming out of China often lacks understanding and context of the original article. Depending on the bias of the author, we could get different interpretation which could either sound fear mongering or overly dismissive. Real honest truth about problems facing Chinese navy is not easy to find in the midst of their modernization and building boom. One can decipher problems facing certain programs from delays in construction and commissioning. One can also decipher problems based on the subsystems used on certain ships. And finally, some insiders are candid on Chinese forums about the issues facing Chinese navy. Contrary to popular belief, the Chinese navy does not have unlimited budget. A lot of its decisions are financially related just like they are for USN.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2014/10/a-recent-cv-16-article-and-trouble-with.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-1407522214620940207Mon, 13 Oct 2014 14:25:00 +00002014-10-13T07:25:23.284-07:00More Amphibious Ships for Chinese navyAs the Chinese national day golden week passed, a lot of really high quality photos from PLAN bases were posted online. As newer ships get commissioned and the oldest ships get retired, many other ships get moved between different flotillas. In the past year, the main mass produced ships have been the type 052C/D series destroyers and the type 056 light frigate. It has certainly been a busy year when we factor in the other new ships. This past month, we are seeing what appears to be the modules of the 4th Type 071 LPD really taking shape at Hudong shipyard. On top of that, production for the smaller Type 072A landing ships have restarted and the first one has launched at WuChong Shipyard as No. 981.<br/><br/>Type 071 can be effectively used for South China Sea and Taiwan scenarios, but provide the additional blue water capabilities that Chinese navy never had. The restart of Type 072 series is aimed at either replacing older landing ships or responding to the increased tension in South China sea. Either way, it shows that Chinese navy will continue to have landing ships of this class for green water missions. PLAN has taken the approach of continuing to build modern littoral ships like Type 056 and Type 022 series while it is building up its blue water navy. The restart of Type 072A seems to be a continuation of this approach of building cheaper and less capable surface combatants for traditional missions. PLAN's identity certainly has not transformed to that to a power projecting blue water navy like USN.<br/><br/>The picture below shows modules from the new Type 071 under construction:<br/><img src="http://i1312.photobucket.com/albums/t522/evereachyu/111217b69uqk0m27in6a2q_zps573c427a.jpg~original" width="400" /><br/>We first started to see photos of Type 071 under construction in 2006 and it was launched by the end of that year. It was commissioned by the end of 2007, but the process of learning to operate this new behemoth has been ongoing since. The second and third Type 071s launched in quick succession in late 2010 and 2011 while joining service a year later. There were speculations of modules for a 4th Type 071 at the time 3rd one was launched, but were proven to be false.<br/><br/>So, why have we not seen more Type 071 until now? There is both the human factor and also the supporting system factor. In the former case, PLAN and PLAMC have really just started operating something with the size ond blue water projection of Type 071. No. 998 was sent out on to Gulf of Aden relatively early on and other Type 071 units have been sent since. Most recently this year, all 3 Type 071s were out on different missions at the same time showing their value of this blue water asset to PLAN. It seems like at the time that PLA really needed more units of this class. Even so, only in the past couple of years have we seen the marine corp starting to conduct large scale amphibious exercises in South China Sea involving Type 071 + helicopters/hovercrafts/boats operating from it. All of this shows that it really takes time to recruit the personnel and train the crew member and the new marines to operate something like Type 071. At the same time, all 3 Type 071s have been assigned to the Zhanjiang naval base and there is probably a limit to how many Type 071s that base can handle before needing further expansion. So even if Hudong shipyard is capable of building one a year, PLA may not be able to accept them at that pace even if it has high need for this series. I don't see this as a problem, since it just gives them more time to identify problems and make incremental updates to the ship.<br/><br/>The other part that Type 071 depended on are the helicopters and hovercraft. Type 726 LCAC was designed to be operated from Type 071. According to some CGs in Chinese TV news and pictures of the inside of well deck, 4 Type 726s can be fit in there. In reality, we have never seen more than one such LCAC inside the well deck, because they have only built 3 Type 726s up to this point. It looks like Type 726 has finally been certified with the commissioning of 2nd and 3rd unit. Type 071 may have been held back while Type 726 is reaching this point. At the same time, more variants of Z-18 has come out recently. In Gulf of Aden missions, we've seen Z-8S, Z-8J and Z-8JH on Type 071. More recently, the more capable Z-18 series have entered service with PLAN as part of the carrier project and they could increase the capability of Type 071. It's quite possible that AEW and/or ASW variant of Z-18 will get stationed on Type 071 on missions where it is operating as the command ship of a expeditionary strike group, whereas transport variant of Z-18 will be used for more amphibious missions. According to mockups we've seen, 4 helicopters can be stored in the hangar of Type 071 with 2 Z-8 sized landing spot on the helipad. In reality, I've seen at most 2 Z-8s and 1 Z-9 operating on Type 071. This will probably change as more naval helicopters are inducted. The other thing we've seen operating in amphibious exercises are the amphibious armoured vehicles. At least 15 of which can be parked in the well deck of Type 071 and more of them can be parked inside Type 071. Since these vehicles already started to exercise with Type 072 landing ships, they are probably the most mature of the amphibious units operating off Type 071.<br/><br/>In conclusion, PLA is continuing with its practice of building amphibious ships for littoral and blue water missions. The construction of the 4 Type 071 would indicate that PLA is feeling more comfortable with this class of ships and ready to accept new unit.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2014/10/more-amphibious-ships-for-chinese-navy.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-5004814250705162541Wed, 08 Oct 2014 20:25:00 +00002014-10-08T13:25:43.490-07:00J-15SRecently, we got some new photos of J-15S coming out, which is always exciting. J-15S is the twin-seated version of China's naval flanker J-15. Its prototype flirst flew from SAC airfield on November 2012. All of the J-15S photos we've seen so far have shown Taihang engines powering the aircraft. That would suggest J-15S will be powered by Taihang right from the time it enters service and that the single seated J-15 could be powered by Taihang after the first batch.<br/><img src="http://oi61.tinypic.com/2qntg5k.jpg" width="400"/><img src="http://oi60.tinypic.com/10eq6o9.jpg" width="400"/><br/>We know that J-11BS entered service relatively soon after J-11B entered service after a relatively short flight testing program of around 2 years. It probably could've been even shorter if not for the problems with Taihang engine at the time. We saw very few photos of J-11BS in flight testing. In comparison, it seems to me that J-15S will be having a longer flight testing program, although not as long as would be expected out of a new variant like J-11B or J-16.<br/><br/>Going forward, I think it is likely that J-15S would be used in more roles than just as twin-seated trainer. First of all, J-15S could be developed in navy's version of J-16. The J-15 airframe should already be strengthened to handle the punishment of taking off and landing on a carrier, so J-15S may not need too much additional work to handle the additional payload expected out of a strike fighter. J-15S would not have the range or payload of J-16 due to restrictions of taking off from a STOBAR carrier, but it could be installed with similar avionics and combat system for strike missions as J-16. It will be able to carry different types of anti-ship missiles, anti-radiation missile and ground attack munitions/missiles that can be launched by the pilot in the WSO seat. Having the second pilot should make J-15S a more effective strike aircraft than J-15. Aside from just anti-shipping missions and ground attack missions, it could also be fitted with the subsystems for SEAD missions and EW warfare. When Su-30MK2 came out, there was a lot of talk about its usage as a "mini-AWACS". While that is a little overblown and CV-16 will already have several Ka-31 and Z-18 AEW helicopters, J-15S can certainly be equipped with the necessary avionics to process data from a group of J-15s and direct their actions.<br/><br/>In summary, J-15S will be a very useful naval aircraft for China's burgeoning naval air arm. It will likely have many use beyond that of a trainer.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2014/10/j-15s.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-5042689284905793262Sun, 31 Aug 2014 04:24:00 +00002014-08-30T21:24:54.452-07:00PLAN ASW ModernizationThe Chinese navy has done a lot of modernization in the past 20 years, but some areas have been lagging behind others. Even while China was still buying large ticket items from Russia, there was a lot of talks on China's growing submarine force and anti-ship missiles. Not only did the imported ships have some over-hyped supersonic missiles, the domestic built ships and aircraft were also equipped with a fairly modern YJ-83 missile. The path to modernization in ASuW is relatively small compared to other areas, so it was not surprising that PLAN made the largest jump here at first.<br/><br/>By 2005, Chinese navy was in the midst of inducting Type 052C and 051C capable of providing anti-air area defense. Even including the interim Type 052B class, this was a very significant jump from point defense in most of the surface combatants to having ships capable of detecting multiple aircraft and missiles at long distance, processing them on the combat system and engaging them with modern long range vertically launched surface to air missiles. As Type 054A started to proliferate in Chinese navy and becoming the backbone of many flotillas, this became no longer an area of weakness. With more Type 052Cs joining service and the first Type 052D being commissioned, Chinese fleet has now become modernized in the area of AAW.<br/><br/>The one area that PLAN has always lagged is in ASW. For a long time, most of the surface combatants only had hull sonar and some ASW rockets. By the turn of century, the new ships have been installed with Yu-7 torpedo. However, China's limited number of naval helicopters mean that only a limited number of ships can travel with ASW helicopters. Since helicopters are rotated between ships, that would limit the ships training with them and their effectiveness. Before the induction of 054A, China's most advanced ASW assets were diesel submarines and Type 037 sub chasers. They are both limited to littoral waters and cannot be expected to escort a fleet. Even in littoral water, they are limited by their own noisiness and lack of speed or range. The 093s could be useful in blue waters, but they are also very loud.<br/><br/>Type 052As were China's most well equipped ASW ships until Type 052C came along. The Type 052C destroyers were the first of surface combatants to be installed with the new generation of Towed array sonar and acoustic decoy. The Type 052s had their original imported French variable depth sonar replaced with this new towed array sonar. The induction of Type 054A really brought a lot of added ASW capabilities. They were also equipped with towed array sonar and acoustic decoy in the back along with bow mounted sonar in the front. Lack of permanent naval helicopter remains to be an issue, but at least they can launch ASROC type of missiles from VLS. That really extended the range of engaging submarines when a helicopter is not available for such duty. Even so, the passive TAS by itself has limitations and is still more suitable for littoral water.<br/><br/>In the past year or so, a new generation of home grown variable depth sonar has been developed. One of those versions has been installed on Type 056, which should be able to replace Type 037 sub chasers for littoral ASW duties. With the existence of helipad that can land Z-9 helicopter, installation of Yu-7 torpedoes and this new VDS, it should be a huge leap over the Type 037s that are retiring from service. An improved version of 054A has also come out recently with this new variable depth sonar installed next to TAS (position of acoustic decoys on earlier 054As) and the new 11 barrel CIWS. This combination of active VDS and passive TAS is installed on the most recent 4 054As (2 each from HD and HP shipyard). Although more of this type could be built, my guess is that they are just testing out this new ASW combat suite and CIWS for the next class of ships. The new Type 052D destroyer (No. 172) is also fitted with this new combination of active/passive sonar in the back along with a bow mounted sonar in the front. It is also said to be able to launch a longer range ASROC type of missiles from VLS than Type 054A. All of this should give Type 052D very balanced combat capability in ASuW, AAW and ASW. A new type of ASW helicopter based on the developing Z-20 project is needed to really allow this ship to hunt and engage modern submarines. Of course, Chinese navy does have a new ASW helicopter in Z-18F, but it is probably too large to be carried in the hangar of Type 052C/D. However, Z-18F should be able to serve on CV-16 along with large future combatants likes Type 055 and LHD/LPD classes. Z-18F is larger than other ASW helicopters like SH-60, NH-90 and Ka-28. It can carry more sonobuoy and has more snobuoy openings than SH-60. It can also carry dipping sonar along with up to 4 Torpedoes. The rest of the electronics and combat system has been upgraded from Z-8 with a new large surface search radar and modern MAWS and RWR antennas. It also has the range to really hunt modern nuclear submarines. That's why it is expected to be a part of the air wing of CV-16 and future Chinese carriers.<br/><br/>As a whole, the hardware for ASW in PLAN has definitely modernized, but they still lack in many areas. While they finally have a Y-8 maritime patrol aircraft, it's still years behind P-3C and serving too small in number. While Z-18F is a nice addition, a Z-20 or Z-15 based ASW helicopter is badly needed for ships in the class of Type 052D and 054A. And finally, the biggest help to Chinese navy would be newer and quieter nuclear submarines with more powerful sonar. Until that happens, the Chinese navy would always be in a place of danger when it comes to underwater warfare.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2014/08/plan-asw-modernization.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-8113137305921917999Sat, 09 Aug 2014 14:39:00 +00002014-08-09T07:39:33.461-07:00Past and present of China/Russia military cooperationTwo recent articles about military exchange between China and Russia. The first one is Robert Farley's article <a href="http://nationalinterest.org/feature/five-ways-russia-could-help-chinas-military-become-even-11000">about 5 ways Russia could help China's military</a>. The second article is about <a href="http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Western_Sanctions_See_Russia_Looking_to_China_for_Military_Aerospace_Components_999.html">Russia looking to buy Chinese electronic military/aersopace components</a>.<br/><br/>I have written on numerous occasions about what China is still interested in buying from Russia and what China would be interested in buying from Europe if the embargo is lifted. The reason is that the balance of military technology prowess has changed so much between Russia and China in the past 20 years that we have gotten to the point where Russia is looking to now buy Chinese military components. Back in 1990, the gap between the collapsing Soviet Union and China was so great that China had to pick which area of its military it had money to import. In the end, despite the army's overwhelming influence in PLA, the much greater gap in air force and navy led to purchasing Su-27s, S-300s and Sov destroyers instead of MBTs and IFVs. People talk about post TianAnMen square arms embargo as the reason that China turned to Russia, but it's quite obvious to me they would've turned that direction regardless of whether or not an embargo was in put. By 1990, China had already experienced how tightly US and other Western companies safe guarded their technology and IP after numerous projects like the J-8II Peace Pearl project. In the end, China spent $500 million without really getting any kind of industrial boost, while US got a thorough look at what was China's most advanced plane at the time (without being very impressed by it). It was with that backdrop that China turned to Russia for help after warming of the relations in the late 80s. It quickly found that Russia had very lax protection of technology compared to Western countries. On top of that, most of Russian military hardware were on fire sale after the Soviet collapse with pretty much anything available to anyone who had money for it. From there, China got a lot of support from Russians in not only the J-11 project, but all of China's indigenous projects. It's hard to imagine that China could've paid $2.5 billion to anyone else and got anywhere close to the amount of technology transfer, industrial help and advanced fighter jet that China got here. It wasn't until early 2000s that Russia started to catch on top how much China's military industrial complex was improving and how much success it was copying a lot of what Russia was showcasing at the time. By that time, China had already noticed that Russia was increasingly pitching non-existent projects requiring China to pay for development cost, so it was already slowing down purchases even though it seemed like the trade was still booming to the outside world. By 2007, the failed IL-76 purchase stopped all ongoing military cooperation between the 2 side. After that was resumed, China continued to purchase more aerospace engines and helicopters from Russia, but not many other major items. Even the much discussed Su-33 deals never came to fruition as China managed to build J-15s with Ukrainian help.<br/><br/>That brings us to the current state of cooperation between the 2 countries. The most recent deals have been AL-31FN/RD-93 engines, Mi-171E/26 helicopters and refurbished IL-76 transports. The 5 items in Farley's article are aerospace engine, Tu-22M bombers, leasing of Akula subs, S-400 SAMs and ballistic missiles. Outside of Tu-22M, I would agree with all of the other items, although China would be interested in the more advanced Tu-160. Aerospace engines and S-400 have already been proposed to China and have high likelihood of been purchased. The other items are all strategic and Russia have been reluctant to share them with China in the past. With the current international climate, Russia is relying more and more on China as it becomes isolated, one wonders if Russia would change it's mind. China would certainly gain a lot from a similar Akula II leasing deal like India got. I would imagine Tu-160 and Yasen class attack subs are completely off limits.<br/><br/>I have been reading for a while that China has been trying to sell electronic components to Russia for it's military products. One of which was T/R modules for Russia's AESA radar. According to the article, the Russian space agency is looking to purchase several billions of dollars of such components from China, which would be a wide range of products. Maybe this could start military export from China to Russia in other areas where Russian manufacturers have simply fallen behind like in building naval ships. Although, I would say it's far more likely that Russia would purchase subsystems and components.<br/><br/>So things have certainly changed in the past 20 years and the recent change in Russia's isolation around the world has seemingly pushed military cooperation even further in China's direction.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2014/08/past-and-present-of-chinarussia.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-2171000701836651508Sun, 03 Aug 2014 20:43:00 +00002014-08-03T13:43:07.843-07:00Present acquisition plans of Chinese air forceI've spent a lot of time talking about the progress of the J-20 project, because it is the most interesting project going on, but it's a good time to catch up on the aircraft that are actually been procured by the Chinese air force.<br/><br/>Most recently, huitong's website listed what appears to be a new PLANAF regiment of J-11B. I was expecting J-11B production to stop with works well under the way for J-15 and J-16 project, but it looks like SAC will produce a few more J-11B/S to complete the 5 PLAAF regiment/brigade and 3 PLANAF regiments. At the same time, we've seen the appearance of Serial Number 108 of J-15's first batch, which would indicate that we have at least 9 (100 to 108) J-15s already painted in PLANAF colors. Since we have yet to see any J-15s from this batch practice takeoff/landing on CV-16, I would imagine they have yet to be delivered. At the same time, we saw J-16s with serial number 1612 and 1613 at SAC from earlier this year. If the prototypes are number 160x, then it would appear 161x may be the first batch of J-16s delivered to PLAAF. If that's the case, then somewhere around 1 dozen J-15s will probably be delivered to PLANAF while a small number of J-16s will be delivered to PLAAF this year. Going forward, these two projects along with J-15S (and possibly some J-11BS) should carry the load of production at SAC.<br/><br/>Also, a lot of us were surprised earlier this year when J-10s started showing up at the 124th brigade of PLAAF. That was the 10th PLAAF regiment/brigade (also with FTTC and 44th, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 24th, 9th, 15th & 12th division) along with one PLANAF regiment. Since J-10B production has already started, the remaining J-10A production from the 7th batch should be going to this brigade. I have already seen Factory serial number 120 on one J-10B in the past month, which would indicate that we should see the first J-10B regiment get most if not all of its aircraft this year. It would not surprise me if the first ones have already been delivered. This first batch of J-10B will be using AL-31FN series 3 engines, which have increased thrust and reliability over the earlier AL-31FNs.<br/><br/>Outside of these 2, I have not seen any new JH-7A unit this year, which could mean the production for it has stopped. It would be replaced by JH-7B and J-16 in service. There is also no sign at the current time that PLAAF will be inducting JF-17 into service, but that may change when they have the domestic engine option available.<br/>http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2014/08/present-acquisition-plans-of-chinese.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-3043143513502620370Sat, 02 Aug 2014 22:35:00 +00002014-08-02T15:35:12.786-07:00More on US/China naval dialog and J-20 projectIn my last post, I talked about China's participation in the Rim PAC 2014 exercise. As this was happening, Admiral Greenert, Chief of US naval operation, made a visit to China and was the first US (possibly first foreign) service member to visit CV-16 Dalian and speak to its crew member. You can see the DOD <a href="http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=122760">article here</a>.<br /><br />Admiral Greenert had what seems to be a good overview and very frank conversations with his Chinese counterpart Admiral Wu about the near future of Chinese naval aviation program. I don't think it's a surprise to Chinese naval followers that they are building another STOBAR carriers similar to CV-16 before moving on to a more modern design. And it's certainly not a surprise that he saw all of the Russian equipments ripped out and replaced with brand new Chinese ones, because that's what we've seen from all of the TV reports. Even so, I really do encouraged at the increased level of communication and discussion between the two sides even though they have feel like they are dealing with possible adversaries. That's the kind of discussions that will hopefully eliminate or at least reduce miscommunications in the future. Greenert also visit a 039B (Improved Yuan) class submarine and some other ships in the North Sea Fleet around where CV-16 is based. The 039B that he boarded was one of the most recently commissioned PLAN submarine, so it certainly seems like Chinese navy is not holding back. From that, I get 2 thoughts:<br /><ol><li>China is certainly reciprocating US efforts for greater transparency. It is also showing greater transparency in general. </li><li>Biggest factor to the greater transparency and willingness to show what they have could be their improved hardware and professionalism. A large part of China's secrecy is due to not wanting to be embarrassed with less advanced ships and non-professional crew members. </li></ol><br />There has also been more news coming out on the J-20 project. The new prototype No. 2012 has made its maiden flight. From all the pictures I've seen so far, it seems to have minimal changes from Prototype No. 2011. The word is No. 2013 and 2014 will also be coming out sometime this year for test flights. So, I think they will now start comprehensive flight testing programs. On SDF, one of my fellow PLA watcher compared the first 2 flying J-20 prototypes (no. 2001 and 2002) to YF-22 while comparing this new batch of prototypes to the F-22 EMD program. It took over 5 years from the first flight of F-22 EMD prototype to the first production F-22 being delivered to Nellis AFB. I would say it will probably take similar amount of type for the first production batch of J-20s to be delivered (so around second half of 2019). Even though the Russians have been saying production version of PAK-FA will be delivered in 2016, I think there is a good chance that won't happen and we will see the 2 aircraft enter service at around the same time.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2014/08/more-on-uschina-naval-dialog-and-j-20.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2810814791836407713.post-6284378711677298050Sat, 19 Jul 2014 15:26:00 +00002014-07-19T08:26:40.214-07:00China participating in RIMPAC and J-20 updatesThis year, China has been <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/in-rimpac-naval-drills-off-hawaii-militaries-adjust-to-new-arrival-china-1405527835">invited to RIMPAC</a> for participation. China is sending No. 171 (Haikou), No. 575 (Yueyang), No. 886 (Qingdaohu) and No. 886 (Peace Ark) to the exercise.<br/><br/>I'm sure some others would disagree but I think such participation is great for not only relationship between the 2 countries and lowering naval tension. Aviation week posted a good article of its <a href="http://aviationweek.com/blog/navweek-china-whirl">visit on No. 171 Haikou</a>. It's certainly no surprise to me that the reporters were allowed to take pictures and interview the captain and crew member, since China has had this kind of "open house" on its new ships in different port calls around the world. The article promised an "exclusive and rather frank sit down with Senior Capt. Zhao Xiaogang" coming up, so I'm interested in seeing how that goes.<br/><br/>We are also seeing what appears to be a new prototype of J-20 coming out this past week for low-speed taxi test. From what we've seen so far, there is no much changes on this new prototype (No. 2012) compared to the last prototype (No. 2011). There might be some changes in the tail area and around the engine going forward, but I think CAC has mostly settled on the design of this aircraft. We can see it below:<br/><img src="http://s8.postimg.org/58phc43kk/2012_July16_3.jpg" width="500"/><br/>Would be interesting to see how this proceed vs PAK-FA going forward.http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2014/07/china-participating-in-rimpac-and-j-20.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Feng)0