The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning, at three in the morning, because the people at Golden Globes are under the delusion that news announced at 3:00 a.m. is somehow more important if it is announced before anyone is awake. As for the actual nominations, like with the Independent Spirit Awards and the SAG nominations, Birdman led the way. It earned seven nominations, while Boyhood and The Imitation Game tied for second with five apiece. Starting to notice a pattern here? This could be a really dull Awards Season with very few surprises. On the other hand, predictable means less work for me. Plus, predictable probably means the Awards Season voters are making the right choices, as surprises usually mean someone made the wrong choice.
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I is not a bad week on the home market, as we do have a $100 million hit coming out on DVD and Blu-ray. Unfortunately, this $100 million hit is Noah, which is a good movie, but not a Pick of the Week contender. Worse still, it is a very shallow week and on the first page of Amazon.com's new releases list, there are releases that on a normal week would be filler. There are a trio of Pick of the Week contenders: Finding Vivian Maier - Buy from Amazon; It Felt Like Love - Buy from Amazon; and Marty - Blu-ray Buy from Amazon. All three are worth picking up, but in the end I went with Marty as Pick of the Week.
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Noah was a risky movie to make. It is a Bible Epic, which is to say, it uses a Bible story to tell an epic movie, as opposed to a faith-based film aimed at churchgoers. It was bound to offend that target audience, while being based on the Bible was bound to turn off those who get annoyed at those who get offended by films like Noah. Should either of these audiences give the film a second chance? Will it appeal to churchgoers? Is it an entertaining film, even for those who don't believe?
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There were three films that were in a virtual tie for top spot on the international top ten. Godzilla squeaked out a win with $38.4 million in 62 markets for totals of $248.7 million internationally and $440.2 million worldwide after a month of release. This includes a $37.00 million opening weekend in China. Needless to say, it earned first place in that market. The film finishes its international run in Japan at the end of July and it should jump over $500 million worldwide when it does.
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After a big win for Maleficent over A Million Ways to Die in the West last time around, this weekend we had another battle between female-friendly and male-friendly films, and once more the women have won by a large margin. The Fault in Our Stars is set to open with $48.2 million, according to Fox’s Sunday morning estimate. That tops Noah’s $43.7 million debut to make the film the biggest drama opener of the year so far. Edge of Tomorrow will be a distant third with $29.1 million, per Warner Bros., which is fairly disastrous for a film costing $178 million. However, in spite of the big difference in performance between the two films, The Fault in Our Stars does have one fairly surprising weakness compared to the sci-fi actioner.
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The Amazing Spider-Man 2 rose to first place on the international chart with $67.34 million on 14,587 screens for a two-week total of $132.15 million. This week's new openings included South Korea, where the film dominated with $10.84 million on 1,472 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $13.85 million. This is on par with The Amazing Spider-Man. It also earned first place in Russia with $9.34 million on 1,779 screens, which is also about on par with the first film. In Japan, it only managed fourth with $4.11 million on 763 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.11 million, which is less than half of the opening of the first film. On the other hand, it was stronger in Italy with $5.71 million on 811 screens over the weekend for a total of $6.58 million. It added $5.66 million on 1,566 screens over the weekend for a total of $27.77 million in the U.K., which again is about on par with The Amazing Spider-Man.
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Rio 2 remained in first place, barely, with $47.1 million in 65 markets for an international total of $200.9 million and a worldwide total of $276.0 million after a month of release. This includes a second place opening in Italy where it pulled in $2.17 million on 711 screens. This is again weaker than its predecessor's opening there. The film earned $12.05 million in China, but that was for the full week, pushing its total to $25.01 million after two. The first film barely played in China, so this is a boost to its international numbers, but I don't think it will be enough to match what the original movie made.
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Moviegoers are celebrating Easter weekend by turning out in big numbers to see Heaven is for Real. The Christian-themed movie will be the biggest opener this weekend, with a very respectable $21.5 million projected Friday-to-Sunday and a theater average of $8,895. That puts it at nearly twice box office take of the widest opener this weekend, Transcendence, which is set for a very disappointing $11.15 million debut. Also opening this weekend, and similarly posting mediocre numbers is A Haunted House 2, with a projected $9.1 million from 2,310 theaters. But, with a production budget reported at $4 million, compared to $100 million for Transcendence, the horror spoof shouldn't have a hard time earning money.
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Rio 2 raced to first place with $63.5 million on 20,008 screens in 65 markets for a total of $125.6 million after four weeks of release. This includes a first place debut in Mexico, where it earned $8.42 million on 2,627 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.97 million. This is about $3 million more than the first film's debut there. It also earned first place in Australia with $2.09 million on 278 screens, although this is weaker than its predecessor. It is still too soon to tell where it will finish internationally, as it has been doing better in some markets, but worse in others, when compared to Rio. That said, I think the studio should be happy overall.
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As expected, Captain America: The Winter Soldier took the top spot on the weekend box office chart, but it was a little closer than expected, as the film's sophomore stint was on the low side of predictions. Rio 2 did very well opening with a nearly identical result as its predecessor. Oculus opened well, for a film that cost $5 million to make. It likely won't have good legs, because films of that genre rarely do, but it should break even regardless. Only Draft Day was disappointing. Overall, the box office was able to pull in $140 million over the weekend. This was down 16% from last weekend, but this is still 20% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 has now pulled in $2.73 billion, which is nearly 8% and $200 million more than last year's pace.
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When Friday's numbers came in, the consensus was that Rio 2 would take the weekend, but relatively weak Saturday numbers for the debutant, and strength through the weekend for Captain America: The Winter Soldier, means that the final weekend estimates on Sunday morning point towards a win for Marvel's superheroes. Captain America is projected to earn $41.4 million over three days for a domestic total around $159 million after two weekends. That's well ahead of the original's $117 million at this stage in its release, and the film's worldwide box office will better the first film's final global total by the end of the weekend too. Rio 2, meanwhile, will have an opening weekend almost identical to Rio, which is a slight disappointment, but hardly a disaster.
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While Captain America: The Winter Soldier is expected to win the race for first place on the box office chart this weekend, some think it will be rather close with Rio 2 giving it a fight. Draft Day and Oculus will also be in a close race for third place with both films earning in the low teens. Overall, the box office looks a lot stronger than it did last year. Both The Winter Soldier and Rio 2 will crush 42's opening, while Draft Day and Oculus will be close to Scary Movie 5's debut.
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Captain America: The Winter Soldier remained in first place on the international chart with $109.8 million in 50 markets for a two week total of $209.4 million internationally and $304.4 million worldwide. The Winter Soldier is already ahead of the first Captain America internationally, and by this time next week, it will have $500 million worldwide, about 30% more than its predecessor's final figure. This week, the film opened in first place in a trio of major markets, led by China where it earned $36.23 million, which is just over $20 million more than the first film finished with in that market. Russia was next with an opening of $7.79 million on 1,685, or $1 million lower than the first film's final tally there. Finally there was Australia, where the film opened with $5.91 million, which is about 20% more than its predecessor opened with. As far as holdovers go, the film added $4.64 million in the U.K. for a total of $18.31 million there, which is already ahead of the first film's total.
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So the first weekend of April was amazing. Not only did Game of Thrones set a series record for ratings (and the best for HBO since The Sopranos) but Captain America: The Winter Soldier set the April opening weekend of all time. Its opening was on the high end of expectations, which is great news, and this strength helped the overall box office grow by 19% from last weekend to $167 million. This is also 24% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 now has $2.55 billion, which is 7% more than 2013's running tally of $2.38 billion.
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The evolution of the Avengers universe is working out very well for Disney. In November, Thor enjoyed a bump from $65 million to $85 million on opening weekend (and an almost $200 million boost in final worldwide box office). Now, Captain American: Winter Soldier is topping the first movie in its sub-franchise by $30 million or so on opening weekend, with a projected total of $96.2 million, compared to $65 million last time around. With excellent reviews, and a better global launch, we could be looking at another $600 million in the bank before this one is finished. Into the bargain, the film will easily be the record weekend in April, comfortably ahead of the $86 million earned by Fast Five back in 2011.
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It is the first weekend in April, which means one thing... Game of Thrones returns! Also, Captain America: The Winter Soldier opens domestically. The film already opened internationally and was a much bigger hit than its predecessor was in the markets it debuted in, which bodes well for its opening here. On the other hand, it scared away all other films and there's no competition opening in wide release and it could take a real bite out of the holdovers. That said, this weekend last year, the biggest hit of the weekend was Evil Dead, which only made $25.78 million and The Winter Soldier could earn four times that over the weekend.
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Captain America: The Winter Soldier started its international run a week earlier than its domestic run and it started out really well. It earned first place with $75.2 million in 32 markets. This includes a number of major markets, led by the U.K. with $10.05 million on 535 screens. By comparison, the first Captain America made $14.75 million in the U.K., in total, including a $4.90 million start. It also cracked $10 million in South Korea with $8.89 million on 1,268 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.99 million. The first film made $3.81 million in South Korea in total. The Winter Soldier also opened in Mexico, earning $8.60 million on 2,681, which was a little bit above its predecessor opening. It is too soon to tell if it will reach $20 million, like The First Avenger did. The first film made $10.28 million in France in total, while this film opened with $6.06 million on 664 screens. In Germany, the film only managed $3.66 million on 626 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.99 million, compared to $4.81 million the original made in total. It had a near identical opening in Italy with $3.60 million on 648 screens over the weekend, for a total opening of $4.06 million. This is close to half of the $8.60 million the first film made in total in that market. On the other hand, the film had to settle for second place in Spain with $2.93 million in 709 screens, which is just a little bit more than the $2.54 million the original opened with. As you can tell, The Winter Soldier topped The First Avenger's opening in every major market. It topped its predecessor's total in one major market. This is an amazing start and with several major markets left ahead of it, an international total of $300 million is a reasonable goal.
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It was a close race, but The Raid 2 took top spot on the per theater chart with an average of $23,613 in seven theaters. Finding Vivian Maier was right behind with an average of $21,200 in three theaters. The overall number one film, Noah, was the only other film in the $10,000 club, earning an average of $12,257.
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March is over and it ended on a bit of a down note. Noah topped expectations, but not every film managed to do the same. For instance, Sabotage barely avoided the Mendoza Line. Overall the box office was down less than $1 million, or 0.7%, when compared to last weekend. Compared to last year, the box office was down 5%, which isn't great, but given how strong 2014 has been, it is hardly a reason to panic. In fact, year-to-date, 2014 has a 6% lead over 2013 at $2.35 billion to $2.22 billion.
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The final weekend in March is a busy one with two wide releases, possibly two wide expansions, and a semi-wide release that could reach the top ten. Noah is the wider of the two wide releases and should have little trouble earning first place over the weekend. On the other hand, there is a chance Sabotage won't reach the top five. Both Bad Words and The Grand Budapest Hotel are expanding wide, or widish. The Grand Budapest Hotel should pop into the top five, but not everyone thinks Bad Words will reach the top ten. Finally, Cesar Chavez is opening in more than 600 theaters and there is a chance it will reach the top ten. This weekend last year was led by G.I. Joe: Retaliation with just over $40 million. Noah could get there, but even if it does, I don't think the other films will hold their end of the bargain and 2014 will finally lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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Need for Speed remained in first place on the international chart with $29.2 million in 55 markets for a two-week total of $96.1 million. This includes $10.5 million over the weekend in China, and $24.22 million for the full week. After two weeks of release, the film has $45.54 million in that one market. The film opened in first place in Germany with $2.91 million on 455 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.06 million. The film opens in Spain and France, among other markets, in April, while by the time it debuts in Japan, it might have covered its production budget internationally.
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Noah opens next week and it could be a massive hit, or it might be an expensive flop. The film reportedly cost $160 million to make, so the studio will be pushing it hard. However, the buzz is mixed, at best. That said, it should crush the only other wide release of the week, Sabotage, which feels like an afterthought. There's a clear choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Noah.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win the first Frankenprize of the week, which I'm expanding. You can choose between three DVDs / Blu-rays, four TV on DVD releases, or six single-disc TV on DVD releases, usually kid's movies.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win the second Frankenprize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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2014 continued its strong run in February with The Lego Movie beating even the high end expectations and will become the first film released in 2014 to reach $200 million. March doesn't look as strong, as no film is on track to hit $200 million, but there are five films that have a chance at $100 million. Granted, not all of them will get there; in fact, there's a chance only one of them will get there. Divergent is the film I think has the best shot at the century club, but it could be joined by Mr. Peabody and Sherman, for instance, which is earning surprisingly strong reviews. Noah is a big-budget Bible epic and the studio has to be hoping for at least $100 million, but the buzz is quite negative and there have been reports of troubles behind-the-scenes. Last March was led by Oz The Great and Powerful, which pulled in more than $200 million domestically. I don't think any film opening this March will match that figure. In addition, The Croods and G.I. Joe: Retaliation also hit the $100 million milestone, while Olympus Has Fallen came very close. Granted, there were also some big bombs last March, like The Host, but even so, I think 2014 will lose ground in the year-over-year comparison.
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Full financial estimates for this film, including domestic and international box office, video sales, video rentals, TV and ancillary revenue
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