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“We are on track for a record-breaking turnout in early voting, but we don’t know what that means yet”

While Obama is ahead in early raw voting numbers in Florida and North Carolina, voting expert Michael McDonald, a professor at George Mason University, says Romney has effectively closed the gap enough that strong Republican turnout on Election Day could cost Obama those states.

“It’s going to be difficult for Obama to pull enough ahead to win North Carolina to offset what Romney may do on Election Day,” says McDonald, director of the United States Elections Project. “They’re seeing the same numbers I am seeing.”…

The challenge faced by each campaign — and what makes early voting relevant — is to bring voters to the polls early who wouldn’t otherwise vote on Election Day. Republicans claim that although Democrats are leading in early voting in most battleground states, they are simply “cannibalizing” or diluting their Election Day turnout by turning out voters who would otherwise come out on Election Day.

Senior Obama officials aggressively refute this by pointing to the number of first-time voters they have registered in battleground states. In Florida and Colorado, for example, they have registered an overwhelming number of new Latino voters, who tend to vote Democratic. (In Florida, Democrats say the bulk of the new Latino voters are Puerto Ricans, who are more likely to vote Democratic than are Cuban-Americans). In those states, the campaign has used Spanish-speaking volunteers to return repeatedly to the voters it has registered until they have mailed in their ballots or gone to the polls.

Were the Donks dumb enough to believe that Romney wouldn’t attempt (and likely succeed) at nullifying their primary advantage from 2008? Romney didn’t succeed in business to the level he has by being stupid. Obama may still pull out a win based a sheer momentum from 2008, but if he loses it will likely be because of hubris and greatly underestimating the sophistication of his political foes whom he may actually believe are knuckle dragging Neanderthals.

Little confused here. Driving back from Lowes, the FOX radio news said the Democrats were ahead in most swing states early voting.

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Election officials may not report early voting statistics. [Emphasis davidk. No one knows for whom anyone has vote. See below.]

…

Breakdowns of early voters by party registration, where available, are not votes for president. We do not know who a person registered with a party voted for; these early votes are tabulated on Election Day or after, depending on state law. That said, we might infer that a person registered with a party is likely to support their party’s presidential nominee.

Unfortunately Texas has been legally invaded by masses of third worlders who have no clue nor care about the history of Texas (or the U.S.). We’ve also had more than our share of liberals moving here from blue states because they can’t find a job but will still vote for the policies that lost the job in the first place.

All that being said, the native and long time residents of Texas don’t have guns, we have arsenals.

Exercise caution in interpreting the Ohio early vote statistics! (I will have an update Sunday regarding the latest numbers reported by the Ohio Secretary of State’s Office, which were collected on Friday, Nov. 2.)

The Ohio Secretary of State report dated Oct. 30 states:

With one week to go before Election Day, Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted today released the latest absentee voting data for Ohio based upon an informal survey of Ohio’s 88 boards of elections.

As of Friday, October 26th, more than 1.2 million Ohioans had already cast their ballots. Of the 1.3 million absentee ballots that have been mailed to voters during the absentee voting period, more than 950,000 have already been returned or 71.9 percent. In addition, more than 306,000 voters had voted in person at their board of elections or designated vote center.

The Donks may indeed still be leading in early votes, but that lead has been significantly cut down this cycle. Let’s hope it’s true that early Donk voters are high propensity voters and early GOP voters are low propensity voters as has been reported. That will help pull Romney over the finish line.

Every single democrat I know has voted already. Only a few republicans have voted. Three independents I know who voted for Obama in 2008, have voted early for Romney. We are voting on Tuesday. We wanted to add to the Romney vote bomb on Tuesday.

Blogs & news channels have little incentive to actually report relevant polling results, vis-a-vis the electoral college. Instead, we’ll be hearing “it’s too close to call” right up to election night when one candidate completely trounces the other, and everyone pretends it was a huge surprise. Advertising dollars and constant viewers/page clicks are worth more than honest reporting.

While Obama is ahead in early raw voting numbers in Florida and North Carolina, voting expert Michael McDonald, a professor at George Mason University, says Romney has effectively closed the gap enough that strong Republican turnout on Election Day could cost Obama those states

We voted absentee on Oct 1st for Romney in WI. We are not registered with a party. I know our votes count cause I keep in contact with the voting office all the time. Plus it’s a republican county and city that we vote in. Who knows if they count our votes going to Zero or not.

???
Are you lying or just hopeful? Cone on. We were up BIG TIME right after first debate which suggested that Romney was gaining momentum BEFORE the first debate. Then when kicked butt, he jumped substantially.

Even the media couldn’t ignore it. Now the margin is slim-enough that they can fake it in Obama’s favor.

Yeah, what’s going on here? The entire Right-o-sphere has been trumpeting Romney’s seven point lead in early voting, now we find he’s behind in Florida which is a state he supposedly has a lock on?

I don’t think “Obama” will win by any means other than massive fraud, but I wish people would be reporting actual news rather than agitating for a particular candidate.

That would make for less shock and awe on election night for all concerned.

sartana on November 3, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Dems usually lead early voting, including in FL, but that doesn’t mean it’s by nearly enough to win the state on Election Day, when far more Republicans will vote. Take a look at OH, too…Dems lead early voting there, but between the drop off among their vote from ’08 and the increase in the GOP vote, it’s a net swing toward Republicans of over 200,000 votes…Obama’s margin in ’08 was 260,000. McCain actually won the vote on election day there, but it was the early advantage Obama built that made the difference. He doesn’t have that this time.