Being more nitpicky (if that is a term), Poly's nice post pertains to the case where there is a well-defined probability distribution related to possible outcomes. In some parts of behavioral economics, this is not even the case ... "genuine uncertainty" ... Seems to me that we are in that realm here, as the probability distribution over sales is blurry at best.

My post was merely a comment about the use of the incorrect phrase "100% certain". I wasn't making any claims about what applied to ZFT sales figures. Even in the area of probability theory you refer to there's no place for the term "100% certain". Whether or not you can assign precise probabilities to events you can still say that it is "certain" that out of all possible outcomes, whether you can determine what they all are or not, something will happen and it's "impossible" that nothing will happen.

A horse race is a complicated enough example. Let A be the event that "The race will take place and complete". P(A or not A) is certain, whether or not one knows how to assign a meaningful value to P(A). Even here it's a tautology to say "P(A or not A) is 100% certain".

_________________The way I see it Barry, this should be a very dynamite show.

Being more nitpicky (if that is a term), Poly's nice post pertains to the case where there is a well-defined probability distribution related to possible outcomes. In some parts of behavioral economics, this is not even the case ... "genuine uncertainty" ... Seems to me that we are in that realm here, as the probability distribution over sales is blurry at best.

My post was merely a comment about the use of the incorrect phrase "100% certain". I wasn't making any claims about what applied to ZFT sales figures. Even in the area of probability theory you refer to there's no place for the term "100% certain". Whether or not you can assign precise probabilities to events you can still say that it is "certain" that out of all possible outcomes, whether you can determine what they all are or not, something will happen and it's "impossible" that nothing will happen.

A horse race is a complicated enough example. Let A be the event that "The race will take place and complete". P(A or not A) is certain, whether or not one knows how to assign a meaningful value to P(A). Even here it's a tautology to say "P(A or not A) is 100% certain".

I know poly. My post was just meant to add that in some areas "certainty" may not even apply (making "100% certain" utterly meaningless). If A is the event that Roxy is always released on DVD, and before 2015, then P(A or not A) may not be certain (or =1). There is of course the event where it is never released, or, more importantly, there are events pertaining to Roxy nobody can imagine, nor attach any probability to.

Don't know any young people who like Zappa or Beefheart.Don't know any young people who know who ZPZ is either.

The world's gettin' old bro.

I turned 19 yesterday, do I count as a "young person" here?

With reasonable certainty the youngest! Which gives you a unique opportunity to grab a clipboard (or a laptop or "iPad"-type thing) and take a survey of those three years older and three years younger inquiring, "I'm taking a survey of how many have ever heard the names, Frank Zappa and/or Captain Beefheart." Ask as many as you can within about a week and report back! People are usually cooperative if it doesn't impinge upon their precious time.

(After that, Polydigm and HJ can make what they will of your findings. )

640'672 people scrobble Zappa on Last Fm...He has had 28'082'848 listens so far... and an average of over 6'000 separate listeners everyday sometimes hitting 8'000 people per day.

This says to me that more then just the hardcore fans are listening to Zappa, i would think in general most hardcore fans listen from vinyl or CD, and not online streaming, also most do not scrobble to last fm...

What do you guys all think, i personally think the future is bright as far as new Zappa fans are concerned...

(I would expect similar figures from deezer, rdio and other online streaming services, which would make the combined total Zappa fans pretty impressive don't you think?)

640'672 people scrobble Zappa on Last Fm...He has had 28'082'848 listens so far... and an average of over 6'000 separate listeners everyday sometimes hitting 8'000 people per day.

This says to me that more then just the hardcore fans are listening to Zappa, i would think in general most hardcore fans listen from vinyl or CD, and not online streaming, also most do not scrobble to last fm...

What do you guys all think, i personally think the future is bright as far as new Zappa fans are concerned...

(I would expect similar figures from deezer, rdio and other online streaming services, which would make the combined total Zappa fans pretty impressive don't you think?)

640'672 people scrobble Zappa on Last Fm...He has had 28'082'848 listens so far... and an average of over 6'000 separate listeners everyday sometimes hitting 8'000 people per day.

This says to me that more then just the hardcore fans are listening to Zappa, i would think in general most hardcore fans listen from vinyl or CD, and not online streaming, also most do not scrobble to last fm...

What do you guys all think, i personally think the future is bright as far as new Zappa fans are concerned...

(I would expect similar figures from deezer, rdio and other online streaming services, which would make the combined total Zappa fans pretty impressive don't you think?)

IMO, 6,000-8,000 separate listeners per day isn't impressive.

Btw, thanks for posting the above.

yes but we are only talking about one site, the vast majority of music listeners do not stream on last fm.also we have 35'000 fans on spotify and 63'318 on deezer, these figures are rising all the time as new people discover his music.

These figures do not count the most popular streaming service youtube.

640'672 people scrobble Zappa on Last Fm...He has had 28'082'848 listens so far... and an average of over 6'000 separate listeners everyday sometimes hitting 8'000 people per day.

This says to me that more then just the hardcore fans are listening to Zappa, i would think in general most hardcore fans listen from vinyl or CD, and not online streaming, also most do not scrobble to last fm...

What do you guys all think, i personally think the future is bright as far as new Zappa fans are concerned...

(I would expect similar figures from deezer, rdio and other online streaming services, which would make the combined total Zappa fans pretty impressive don't you think?)

IMO, 6,000-8,000 separate listeners per day isn't impressive.

Btw, thanks for posting the above.

yes but we are only talking about one site, the vast majority of music listeners do not stream on last fm.also we have 35'000 fans on spotify and 63'318 on deezer, these figures are rising all the time as new people discover his music.

These figures do not count the most popular streaming service youtube.

I don't think 35,000 or 63,000+ is that impressive either. For example, over the past few years, ZPZ's annual attendance has sustained between that range...

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