2017 California Almond Forecast

The initial subjective forecast for the 2017 California almond production is 2.2 billion pounds. Forecasted production is 2.8 percent above last year’s production of 2.14 billion pounds. Forecasted bearing acreage for 2017 is 1,000,000. Forecasted yield is 2,200 pounds per acre, down 3.5 percent from the 2016 yield of 2,280 pounds per acre. The subjective production forecast is based on a telephone survey conducted from April 25 to May 4 from a sample of almond growers.

The California almond bloom began in mid-February; chilling hours were described as adequate, but less than 2016. The 2017 bloom was an extended bloom, due to cold temperatures, and lasted a few weeks. Significant rains before and during bloom made application of dormant and bloom sprays more difficult. There were also concerns about bees pollinating in the stormy weather, but the extended bloom may have compensated for those issues. While all the rain complicated orchard work, the water was a welcome relief from years of drought. Set was reportedly good and nuts were developing well.

Procedures

Results of the subjective survey are based on opinions obtained from growers. The sample of growers changes from year to year and is grouped by size of operation, so all growers will be represented. Growers are asked to indicate their almond yield per acre from last year and expected yield for the current year.