strategies for 2013 expirations

So, thinking ahead because clearly demand for reward seats will soon be out of this world, what strategies are people using before the 2013 expiration of points? I guess two topics: 1) to use them, and 2) to avoid it, like refunding a ClassicPlus.

It's kinda hard to plan because I really don't know how many points are set to expire on what date. But I do know that I'll find a way to use the points either for flights of hotels. If I do have leftover points that will expire and I have no more toasters or gift certs to buy, I will donate points to a charity. There is no way I will let points expire unused.

To use them before they expire will be difficult IMHO, unless you get an early start. Demand will outpace seats making it hard in 2012 and nearly impossible in 2013, even for points not set expire. Almost like we should forget about it until after 2013. This demand will explode once they post info on # of points set to expire. Strategies?
Also, when best to buy that expensive ClassicPlus rewards, and refund, before they close that?

To use them before they expire will be difficult IMHO, unless you get an early start. Demand will outpace seats making it hard in 2012 and nearly impossible in 2013, even for points not set expire. Almost like we should forget about it until after 2013. This demand will explode once they post info on # of points set to expire. Strategies?
Also, when best to buy that expensive ClassicPlus rewards, and refund, before they close that?

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Realistically, most AP members will not have a large backlog of points to use in 2013; majority of the people will use them as soon as they have they have enough miles accumulated to get a flight, so I very much doubt there will be an "explosion" of demand.

Not to mention that most people will be redeeming Y awards anyway, not the international J/F ones most of us here covet.

Realistically, most AP members will not have a large backlog of points to use in 2013; majority of the people will use them as soon as they have they have enough miles accumulated to get a flight, so I very much doubt there will be an "explosion" of demand.

Not to mention that most people will be redeeming Y awards anyway, not the international J/F ones most of us here covet.

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Lets think about what we know about these members, they use their accounts at least once per year so they haven't forgotten about them. We know a lot of points will be expiring, its unlikely these are evenly distributed among all AP accounts - more likely there are many many accounts with 100K+ points ready to expire. That means you will have many people who have a lot of points to burn attempting to use them, more than in an average year.

Will it be some doomsday scenario for availability more than we see everyday? Probably not, but chances are availability will get tighter as people try and use their points for anything they can get (ClassicPlus Awards?).

Lets think about what we know about these members, they use their accounts at least once per year so they haven't forgotten about them. We know a lot of points will be expiring, its unlikely these are evenly distributed among all AP accounts - more likely there are many many accounts with 100K+ points ready to expire. That means you will have many people who have a lot of points to burn attempting to use them, more than in an average year.

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More than average year, I agree.

But most AP members have no status, so 6 years of some flying will likely have them at well less than 100K, even if they have not redeemed a single flight. And I really don't think these members will be trying to save up for a mini-RTW in F -- most will never even have flown in J, so they will be redeeming for Y tickets (or toasters!) as they have miles saved up, or they need the flight.

Among E and SE members there will be much higher mileage balances. But will there really be many Es and SEs who have not redeemed any awards since 2006? For an SE since 2006, that would mean a 1.4M+ account balance! Hands up everyone who has that many miles in AP ...

Well according to my spreadsheet (what does not every real flyer have one? ) all my 2013 miles are gone as are the 2014 miles.... and I am a good part into my 2015 miles... a couple of more J rewards and I will be worrying about 2016.

I won't have any miles expiring in 2013 either - they've all been used up and more. Even though I still have more than a million miles in my account, I've use them frequently for J seats to Europe etc. I would be surprised if expiring miles are a problem for frequent flyers. They might be for people that only accumulate them at Esso etc.

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