Andrea Horwath, the leader of the New Democratic party, is promising to expand universal healthcare as her opponent rails against big government.
Photograph: Carlo Allegri/Reuters

Days before residents in Canada’s largest province head to the polls, Kathleen Wynne, Ontario’s current leader, conceded that she had little chance of holding on to her job.

“I don’t know who voters will choose; that’s up to them,” the premier said during a recent campaign stop in Toronto. “But I’m pretty sure it won’t be me.”

The surprise admission was a nod to polls that have suggested that more than 80% of Ontarians are clamouring for change as rising inequality, stagnating incomes and economic uncertainty takes a toll.

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At the outset of the campaign it seemed Ontario’s Conservatives – led by Doug Ford, the brother of late Toronto mayor Rob Ford – would easily capitalise on this sentiment to secure a majority. But recent weeks have seen the left-of-centre New Democratic party (NDP) surge in popularity, offering a progressive alternative to Ford, whose leadership has elicited comparisons to Donald Trump.

Polls suggest the two parties – both of whom are pitching radical change – are now neck-and-neck, pitting the rightwing populist politics that have swept much of the world against promises to increase government spending and raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy.

“People believe we can do much better than what we’re doing and I think that’s what’s creating a sense of energy around our campaign,” the provincial party leader Andrea Horwath told the Guardian in an interview. “They’re actually hopeful that we can do things differently.”

“Families are telling me they’re terrified of what lies ahead,” said Horwath, citing stories of crippling student debt and the explosion of part time, casual and contract work. “As the economy continues to be challenging one – and one in flux – governments need to step up to the plate and make sure people have the basics like prescription drugs or dental care.”

In contrast, Ford has railed against taxes and big government. Along with lowering taxes, his party promises to reduce the price of gasoline, boost spending on healthcare and transit and repeal carbon pricing. Voters are frustrated, he told supporters as he touted a platform that would deliver “real change” earlier this week. “Everybody’s stuck their hand in their pocket.”

Doug Ford, leader of the Progressive Conservative party, at a campaign event. Photograph: Canadian Press/Rex/Shutterstock

The wide ideological gulf between Horwath and Ford – a businessman who peppers interviews and speeches with boasts and falsehoods and takes aim at the elites – has transformed the character of the election, said Frank Graves of EKOS Research Associates.

“This was sort of an acid test of whether or not the ordered rightwing populism that had produced Brexit and Trump and others was going to occur in Canada,” he said.

The result is the kind of election that might have transpired south of the border if Bernie Sanders had been able to take on Trump for the American presidency; a battle between the divisive wedge politics that have rattled countries around the world and an approach rooted in a more open society and a redistribution of wealth.

“It seems, in this case, Canada is opting for the more open approach,” said Graves, pointing to recent polling done by his firm that put the NDP slightly ahead of the Conservatives.

The C$16.5m lawsuit alleges that Doug has deprived his late brother’s family of millions of dollars, according to the Toronto Star. Ford has denied all of the allegations, which have not been proven in court.

The many parallels between Trump and Ford mean the tumultuous politics playing out south of the border could also play a role in determining the election outcome, said Geneviève Tellier of the University of Ottawa.

“Doug Ford is not Trump, but he’s borrowing some ideas, such as not speaking to the media, for instance, or not considering expert reports,” she said. “We have seen what is going on in the US and I don’t think that many Ontarians want to see this kind of politics happening.”