Senator Graham, You Know You’re in Trouble, When You Can No Longer Count on Me.

Lindsey, what world do you live in? We’re talking about turning him down for a job, something we’ve all survived and got on with our lives. A hiring decision requires only a preponderance of the evidence that you have the best candidate, not guilt beyond the shadow of a doubt. Besides you missed the point entirely; this isn’t about his reputation or her reputation, it’s about decisions, some of them life or death decisions affecting some three hundred million Americans for years to come.

Without going into detail the question is, “Did the incident occur?” Judge Kavanaugh says, “no.” Professor Ford says, “yes.” One of them apparently lied and it is unlikely we will ever know with certainty which one.

So you must decide on a number (the probability that Kavanaugh has lied) that you see as acceptable for a Supreme Court Judge. As a juror, I might find that 90% (chance that a defendant is a serial killer) is not high enough for a guilty verdict, but 10% is way too high for him to date my daughter. Lindsey, I know you won’t give me that number but write it down and put in in your wallet. Now make sure you have enough evidence to beat that number.

I know you want to make this a (he said/she said) argument, basically a 50/50 proposition, which is hardly good enough to begin with.

Sadly you have chosen to ignore the only credible source you already have, the polygraph results from Professor Ford. True, it’s not accepted in a court of law, not because it’s worthless but because 90% doesn’t meet the “shadow of a doubt” standard. Polygraphs are actually better than full investigations in assessing sexual assault questions where often only two people know for sure. Polygraphs have been scientifically tested and verified to be approximately 90% accurate. It is commonly used in many hiring situations where honesty is critical, as it certainly is in this case.

Science trumps gut instinct every time. Your “judgement of character” is no better than mine, no better that the family members, coworkers and neighbors of mass shooters and serial rapists who are invariably astonished that they were so wrong about their close acquaintance. It’s my experience that gut impulses are usually wrong. Mr. Avenatti’s client is also willing to take a polygraph provided Judge Kavanaugh will. I suspect these three tests taken together would give us a probability (that Kavanaugh is lying) of 99.9% which all their lawyers know thus the same results can be inferred by willingness to take the test. And I’d bet we would get the same result by polygraphing any three members of your committee. This number does reach the shadow of a doubt threshold so unless you have a lot of real evidence to the contrary,

I’m putting you on record at accepting the 99.9% probability; check that number in your wallet before you give me a “thumbs up.”

As for the question, “Did the Democrats play a role in the timing of the release of the allegations?” my guess is that they did. It would be the smart thing to do. In their shoes both you and I would have done the same. Being bested by an opponent hurts, but it simply doesn’t change the facts. I heard the “deep state” theory trotted out again by you and Mr. Kavanaugh and you might have something there.

Let me introduce myself; I am the “deep state” determined to put the Trump administration in check. A registered Republican for over 50 years, I am the same conservative I was then; it is the party that has changed. I am the old white Midwestern male that all the pollsters say will stick with Trump no matter what. And I will stay a Republican working to restore the principles and norms and replace Republicans who won’t. Growing up on the farm I once asked my grandfather how we were going to clean the chicken house. He said the only way to “clean house” is from the inside so grab a shovel, hold your nose and get to work and that’s exactly what I intend to do.

It’s not black voters, immigrants, women or the Democratic conspirators you have to fear, it’s me, because when you can’t count on me you’re in trouble.