Sunday, 7 August 2011

Resultant demographic scenario and its implications for India (Part II)

Emerging demographic divide:

The findings of the Census of India 2011 clearly reinforce that two contrasting demographic "nations" are emerging in the country. In 1951, the Four Southern Indian States (Andhra Pradesh (AP), Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu (TN)) had 26 per cent of India’s population and by 2011, that figure has declined to 21 per cent. In 2051, as per the long term population projections (PRB 2007), the combined population of these States is projected to be only 16 per cent of the country’s total. On the other hand, the population of Four Large North Indian (FLNI) States of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh (MP), Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh (UP) will increase from 37 per cent in 2011 to 44 per cent in 2051. This is mainly due to fast decline in fertility in the southern states of India in last 25 years as compared to FLNI States, as shown below:

Table 1 Number of children per woman

Year

Bihar

MP

Raj

UP

India

AP

Karnataka

Kerala

TN

1981

5.7

5.2

5.2

5.8

4.5

4.0

3.6

2.8

3.4

2006

4.0

3.1

3.2

3.8

2.7

1.8

2.0

1.9

1.8

Source: Registrar General of India and NFHS-3 (2005-06)

While all the States in South India have already achieved the replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per woman required to initiate the process of population stabilization, the FLNI States have a long way to go before they achieve this level.

This sort of fertility pattern will have far reaching political implications. Table 2 shows changing rank of ten most populous States in 1951 arranged by population size. It is interesting to note that Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan will swap their respective positions in the year 2051 as compared to 1951. Tamil Nadu will move down from its fifth position in term of population size in 1951 to 10th in the year 2051. On the other hand, Rajasthan will move on to take the fifth position from its tenth rank. And this will change the political demography of India. It is in this context that fear policies playing havoc with human numbers in the country is not largely unfounded[1]. The slogans like “sons of soil” may be raised in a large scale. The changing face of demography in India, therefore, in the next 20 years or so will pose serious challenges to democracy as well as national unity by its sheer size.

Table 2 India: Changing rank of ten most populous States in 1951 arranged

[1]During the discussion on Consideration of Issues of Population Stabilization in the Country held in Lok Sabha on August 4, 2010, SHRI C. SIVASAMI, Member of Parliament from Tiruppur, Tamil Nadu said: “In India, we find in the Southern States ……we have succeeded there in bringing down the population increase. But in certain Northern States we are quite unable to control population explosion and we are really struggling hard. This has resulted in a situation where the Northern States get more funds according to their population and the so-called States in the South are getting reduced funds from the Centre. I urge upon the Union Government to evolve a method to provide incentives to the Southern States which have succeeded in effectively controlling the population growth, but to the contrary they are being deprived of their share”.For details, see Lok Sabha Proceedings, 2010, p. 4134.