Abdasa, Naliya – 4 each. 3 cm and less rainfall recorded at a number of places.

Since the low has merged with the seasonal low over Sindh, rains have spread

into the South Rajasthan.(Uni.of Wisconsin map).

In the sindh region of Pakistan, good rains are reported, with North Karachi getting 36 mms of rain yesterday.

On moving into drier areas, I expect the low to fizzle out within next 24 hrs. Hence subsequent decrease in rainfall in Gujarat/Karachi region from tomorrow,

SWM shifts into +ve Zone:

The overall all India statistics for the monsoon rain is now +1%. Shifting into the plus zone is good, but it is very important to see alongwith if there is any r

egion still in the deficit.

The map is clear and self explanatory.

The situation is particularly bad in Jharkhand where rainfall deficit is touching 50%.

It has been very obvious this year that the monsoon’s bounty has been generous to largely dry areas of west Rajasthan and Kutch/Saurashtra getting 54 and 106% more rains this year.

While The monsoon starters of Kerala and coastal Karnataka witnessed lesser rains this season.

Withdrawal signs:

The monsoon usually starts receding from Western Rajasthan from Sept 1. However this year, this region has been receiving rainfall upto 10th. of September. IMD has stated in its latest updates that it might be a bit late in the monsoon witdhrawing. NCEP is of similar opinion and expects a withdrawal from Northwest India only after 15th of September.

Current analysis show the 200 hpa jet streams having moved very marginally south of 30N. But, on the western side, in Pakistan, we see the jet streams westerlies below 30N, as on Friday. And, as discussed yesterday, the seasonal low in Sindh is becoming 1000 mb, and maybe going up to 1002 mb by Monday.

I would back on a witdhdrawal from Pakistan and Western Rajasthan from Monday or Tuesday.

Further witdhrawal, southwards will be monitored stage wise.

A low is forecasted to form in the bay around the 14th. If true, then as per the above developments, the low may just skirt off north/north-eastwards. But ,another factor to estimate the track, is to see and observe is the axis alighnment as on that date.

Overall monsoon performance has improved to 102 per cent and counting as of Thursday, matching the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) estimate for the entire season made in its long-range forecast.

Widespread rainfall has been reported from the West Coast, West Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha during the 24 hours ending on Thursday morning, the IMD said in an update the same evening.

DEFICIT IN EAST

It was fairly widespread over East Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Uttarkhand, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep. The deficit in East and Northeast India has since come down by a notch to 20 per cent, a rain-spell away from getting into the “normal” category despite nagging deficits in individual Met subdivisions in the region.

Jharkhand (-48 per cent) and Gangetic West Bengal (-35 per cent) continued to lead the pack.

Only Arunachal Pradesh showed a single-digit deficit of four per cent, which, thanks to IMD definition, is in the “normal” category (between -19 per cent and 20 per cent).

CROP UPDATE

Meanwhile, the latest agro-met advisory issued by the IMD said that the overall kharif crop condition continues to be “almost normal” except in East and Northeast India. Receipt of well-distributed rainfall in most of the States is expected to lead to a good harvest during the season.

Farmers in the East and the Northeast who could not sow during the earlier part of kharif season or lost the sowed crop due to deficient rain have been advised to make most of the recent rain and undertake sowing according to recommended contingency measures.

Crops partially affected due to less rainfall during earlier part of the season in some districts of Uttar Pradesh have now recovered due to a recent round of wet weather witnessed during the last few weeks.

Alongside, there have also been reports of adverse impact to crop from heavy rainfall in different parts of the country, the advisory said.

Heavy rainfall on two days on a trot and resultant water-logging has affected soybean, groundnut, ginger and turmeric crops in low-lying areas in Imphal-West and Imphal-East districts of Manipur.

Submergence of crops, mainly kharif vegetables, has been reported from some areas of Upper Brahmaputra Valley zone of Assam.

Harvest-ready green gram crop in Gulbarga and Yadgir districts in Karnataka too has been affected in this manner. Alternating bright sunshine for the last 15 days has led to pod shattering, leading to severe loss of crop.

Reports of water logging have been reported from Hyderabad, Medak, Rangareddy and Nalgonda districts in Telangana. Farmers have been advised to drain out excess water from the fields.

Chilli and tomato crops have been adversely affected by heavy rainfall in Nagaland. Fruit rot in chilli and bacterial blight in tomato may have adversely affected the yield of the respective crops, the advisory said.

The East and Northeast, which witnesses annual rainfall between 1,300 mm and 2,800 mm, is passing through its second year of drought or delayed monsoon.

In contrast, the desert States in the north and west with annual rainfall of between 600 and 900 mm have seen a deluge this year.

Satellite cloud imagery on Thursday afternoon showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Gujarat, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the Northeastern States, West-central and South Bay of Bengal and East Arabian Sea.

A rain alert valid for the next two days said that heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at a few places over Gujarat.

Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall has been forecast over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during this period.

In Central India, isolated heavy rainfall would occur over West Madhya Pradesh, North Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka on Friday.

The South-West monsoon has turned the corner on Wednesday by posting 101 per cent braving a lean patch in East-central, East and North-East India.

Of the four homogenous geographical regions of the country, Northwest India (107 per cent), Central India (104 per cent) and South Peninsula (121) per cent recorded above normal rainfall.

NO GAINS

At 79 per cent, East and Northeast India was in deficit, with no significant gains recorded in the ongoing active phase of monsoon.

Jharkhand (-48 per cent), Gangetic West Bengal (-35 per cent), Assam and Meghalaya (-26 per cent) and Bihar (-25 per cent) bore the brunt of an erratic monsoon in these parts. Northwest India had a deficit Meteorological subdivision in East Uttar Pradesh (-28 per cent) lying adjacent to barren Bihar. Central India too had individual cases of Met subdivisions barely making the grade to the normal as per India Meteorological Department (IMD) definitions (putting it between -19 per cent to +20 per cent).

East Madhya Pradesh (-18 per cent), Orissa and West Madhya Pradesh (-15 per cent each) and Chhattisgarh (-14 per cent) are ‘normal' only by default.

LESS IN KERALA

In the South, the traditional monsoon playgrounds of Kerala and Coastal Karnataka posted -13 per cent and -2 per cent rainfall during the season as of Wednesday.

The massive 121 per cent surplus accrued from the humongous falls over Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu this time round in a trend forecast by international agencies before the start of the season.

An IMD update on Wednesday said that widespread rainfall was reported from over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, the West Coast, Gujarat, Southeast Rajasthan, and Coastal Orissa during the 24 hours ending in the afternoon.

Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and South Madhya Pradesh also during this period.

But isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall has been forecast for Gujarat, Konkan and Goa during the next two days.

Extended forecast until Monday said that fairly widespread rainfall would occur over the Gangetic Plains, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the Northeastern States, Orissa and the West Coast.

The rain belt would be mostly active over the eastern quadrant of the country, including the Southeast Coast, during the week ending September 15 (Wednesday next), according to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction.