High risk of imminent large scale military operations in the Donbass

Most of you must by now have heard various reports about the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Ukraine. Many, however, might have dismissed them because, let’s be honest here, we have had so many false warnings about an imminent Ukronazi attack that we got used to them. In fact, there have been numerous previous incidents, but this time around I see enough indicators and warnings to warrant another warning. Here are the new elements:

Over the past couple of months the Ukrainians have gradually amassed a very large force estimated by most observers are 120’000 soldiers. Some units were moved away from the Crimean border and the city of Mariupol and deployed all along the line of contact in the Donbass.

The Ukronazis have officially admitted that they are implementing what they call a “frog leap” tactic in the Donbass which consists of slowly but constantly taking control of the gray zone supposed to separate the two sides and they are not reporting about the territories they have “liberated”.

Poroshenko is, by all accounts, totally clueless as how to proceed. This weakness if felt by key Ukrainian politicians who recently have made strong statements in support of a military “solution”. Those politicians include Yulia Timoshenko and Dmitry Iarosh. If Poroshenko does nothing, they call him a coward, if he orders an attack on the Donbass they will call him a loser. For the Nazis, this is a win-win situation.

There is a consensus opinion amongst experts that the Ukronazi junta is horrified by the election of Donald Trump and that they see only one option to force the hand of Trump: to force Russia to openly intervene in defense of the Novorussian Republics which would, of course, result in a military defeat for the Ukraine but also a political victory as the US and EU cannot allow Russian to openly defeat the Ukrainians without reacting.

The Ukrainians have moved forward heavy artillery systems, including ballistic missiles and heavy long range multiple rocket launchers we can strike in downtown Donetsk. Ukrainian MBT and APC/IFV are also seen in large number all along the line of contact. The deployment of such systems is a direct violation of the Minsk-2 Agreement but the Ukronazis don’t seem to care.

More and more Ukrainian politicians are openly declaring the the Minsk Accords are dead and that only a military solution is possible. Some members of the Rada want to declare war on Russia.

The Americans are closely monitoring the situation, US drones were detected all along the line of contact, but Donald Trump seems to have decided that he has no interest in stopping the Ukrainians. Bad tongues will say that he doesn’t have the wisdom or political will to take action. Trump-still-hopefuls are saying that Trump wants to let the Ukronazis attack just to place the blame on them and dump them politically.

Very interestingly, for the very first time most Russian experts who participate in Russian TV talkshows are openly saying that if the Ukronazis officially renege on the Minsk Agreement and attack the Donbass Russia should unilaterally launch a peace-enforcement operation and impose an end to the hostilities in the Donbass and then deal with the complaints coming from the US and Europe. They point out that both the US and Turkey have large forces deployed in Syria in total illegality and that they are in no position to criticize Russia for imposing a end to combat operation right across the Russian border.

There are consistent reports that the Novorussian forces are on their highest combat alert status and that they are impatiently waiting for a green light to finally launch a counter-offensive against the Ukronazis. The Novorussian forces are much smaller, in the 30’000-40’000 range, but they are much better trained, commanded and equipped, and they are on the defensive. Their morale is very high, in sharp contrast to the regular Ukrainian forces (Nazi volunteer battalions’ morale is, reportedly, also high).

There are also reports that Northern Wind and Voengorg have had a sharp surge. If that is indeed the case, and I believe that it is, this leads me to conclude that the Russian intelligence agencies have concluded that an attack is inevitable.

The official political tone coming from Putin and Lavrov is very disdainful towards Poroshenko which is presented as a clueless, incompetent, immoral and basically a finished politician who is both unwilling and unable to work towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict. I fully agree with this characterization. It appears that the Kremlin has basically given up on Poroshenko.

There is a pretty good chance that the russophobic EU politicians, who are also horrified by Trump’s election, are encouraging the Ukronazis to trigger a shooting war which they see as their last chance to create the russophobic hysteria in the West which is their last shot at remaining even marginally relevant on the international scene. The Germans and the Brits, especially, appear to be doubling-down on their “blame Russia no matter what” policy.

For all these reasons I assess that there is a strong probability that full-scale combat operation between the Ukronazis and the Novorussian will resume in the next couple of days. At this point in time, I see only one thing which could stop this: a strong and determined order from President Trump telling the Ukrainians to stop, withdraw and come back to the negotiating table. Alas, I see such an action by President Trump as highly unlikely.

Spring has always been the best time for offensive combat operations in the Ukraine. The roads are getting better, foliage is returning to the trees and bushes and the temperatures are very slowly beginning to climb back up. I suspect that the junta would have preferred to attack later, in April-May, but the election of Donald Trump has clearly created a panic in Kiev and since the Ukronazis have no chance of winning (their sole objective is to force a Russian intervention), a February attack might be an acceptable option for them.

The Saker

The Essential Saker II: Civilizational Choices and Geopolitics / The Russian challenge to the hegemony of the AngloZionist Empire

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69 Comments

I think the whole thing was sort of pre arranged by the Lunatic Ash Carter to tee up a conflict for Hillary in her first weeks. He would have had the support of the feckless hack Obama of course and the goal was to lock in a new Cold War.

The new Cold War would differ from the old one in that it would be on Russia’s ( and soon after China’s) frontiers, and would be modeled on the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

The Korean model works well. It justifies a large occupation force that is largely paid for by Korea and Japan, compels those countries to buy loads of American weapons, keeps those countries on the reservation, and makes it politically impossible for those countries to pursue an independent policy. The upside is that they are allowed the full spectrum of industries and access to American markets.

Now think of the New Cold War combined with the now defunct TPP and TIPP trade deals and you are starting to get an idea of what the imperial strategy is.

Remember, Putin has been demonized to the extent that he is often compared to Kim in the corporate media these days. Xi is also demonized. Whenever these countries do anything it is met with a hysterical propaganda barrage; like when China sailed its carrier from the north to the south of the country. Think of all the deals Kerry set up that ended in duplicity, the lying, the fear mongering and the militarization, along with the police state at home and the denouncement of all moderates as traitors and you get a rough idea of what the empire had in store.

That’s why they are freaking out. That’s why Porky must attack. That’s why they are trying to destroy Trump. And that’s why forcing Ukraine to attack is the only viable gambit they have.

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

And now we have apparent the consequences of the big lie, and the state can no longer shield the people from it. The lie can no longer be maintained. The state is trying to repress dissent and hide the truth, but it’s not working. That’s the lesson of Brexit and Trump’s election, and widespread disdain for the corporate state media: it’s no longer working.

If Russia crosses Ukraine’s frontier, even to defend itself, McCain and his entire War Party will demand a declaration of war against Russia, the first such action by the Congress since it countered Hitler’s declaration against the U.S. in 1941. If the issue is even taken up for a vote, Putin had better be ready to order a first strike nuke attack or lose everything he has to the planned American first strike. See you all in Hell later the same day. What Trump wants won’t matter a hill of beans. You see the media acting unanimously against his every policy. You see his cabinet members making provocative public statements against Russia contrary to his expressed philosophy. The Scheissessern will vote to impeach Trump as an add on to their declaration of war.

McCain can demand all he wants. But it won’t happen. As soon as the Russian nuke sites start to be seen as being prepared to “go”.The few “grown-ups” in Washington will tell him to “shut up” and sit down.

“Today, in accordance with the decision of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, an unannounced inspection of the Aerospace Forces has begun to assess the readiness of military administrative bodies and forces to carry out combat training tasks,” Shoigu said at a meeting.”

These Ukies are crazy. Don’t they realize its over? That its time for a divorce? You guys don’t get along!!!!
And as a westerner i can sincerely say that I hope the west goes to hell if its not there already.They refuse to disentangle themselves and leave these countries to run their own affairs. Their greed and insatiable appetite to raise GDP and keep their sheeple as domesticated pets at the government trough like slaves is disgusting.

I read a report in the Russian press that Cossack units are “officially” being called up by their Cossack leadership.And are preparing to enter Donbas “in mass” for the fight.I can only hope that all this signals the end for Ukraine in Donbas if not in all Novorossia or even “Banderastan” itself.The article said the Cossacks intend for this to be the “endgame” for the nazis and don’t intend on stopping this time until the nazis are destroyed.It also said that the Cossack units were only a “part” of the volunteers that are coming back.While we don’t know whether to believe all that or not. It at least sounds good.

Novorossiya is fully capable of defending itself. When Strelkov back in May and June of ’14 was complaining that few volunteers were coming to the ranks of the budding armed forces of Donetsk and Lughansk, he was being a bit disingenuous. He sent almost all of the younger volunteers to training in areas near Rostov and kept the older men and graybeards, most of whom were veterans, to defend and hold off the orcs. He had success with his plan and after his successful retreat from Slavyansk to Donetsk on 05 July, under the very noses of the orcs (Did he bribe them? Who knows and who cares, the retreat was successful.), the second phase of orc operations began, this along the Russian borders with Donbas.

It was here in the fall that the first organized units of Donetsk and Lughansk Armed Forces returned from their training. Already numbers of volunteers had arrived in Donbas starting in April of ’14 including many from Krimea and Sevastopol. The fight for control of the Savur Mogila edifice was of the utmost importance to both Donetsk and Lughansk. From this high outpost and monument vast areas of the eastern areas bordering Russia could be easily seen. It was from Savur Mogila that the spotters did their work as the orcs, sitting on the almost endless for lack of a better term steppes and totally without cover or concealment, were slaughtered at the outset of the offensive by Novorossiya Armed Forces. By this time ‘NATO’ advisers were already in orc units sometimes down to company levels. Senior Nato and US command officers were totally stunned by the sudden reverse of orc fortunes as a storm of Grad missiles hit two regiments bivouacked on open ground, destroying both regiments in less than ten minutes and forcing the beginning of the cauldron battles that resulted in the near total destruction of orc forces to the east and south of Donetsk and Lughansk. These events are what sent Merkel, Golland and Kerry running to Moscow and resulted in the Minsk Agreement, know known as Minsk 1. This whole arrangement was false and I have no doubts Mr. Putin knew this from the start of negotiations, the agreement was simply a successful ploy to give orc forces a breather and a chance to rebuild, in essence a ploy that saved orc armies from total destruction.

During the spring, summer and fall of ’14 Donetsk and Lughansk Armed Forces had worked day and night obtaining and refurbishing a small percentage of the vast armament stores left over from SSSR in the two oblasti. In addition they started an operation which is ongoing today to ‘purchase’ various and sundry pieces of operable armored and soft skin vehicles from the orcs. While I have few doubts that some equipment did come from Russia the vast majority of TOE in NAF is of local and old Soviet origin. Was there a ‘North Wind’ that blew in from Russia to successfully prosecute the Cauldron Battles? To this day I have yet to see one incontrovertible piece of evidence that organized Russian units entered Donetsk or Lughansk Oblasti. Not one. I’ve seen a lot of false attempts at proving Russia was there but nothing that stood up to detailed analysis. As an aside Ukraine did not one required part of Minsk1.

Many of you know, or should know, of the continuous bombardments of early winter in Donetsk and to an extent Lughansk from the salient punching to the east of Gorlovka to the Lughansk borders. It was from here that the orcs ceaselessly bombarded Gorlovka and Donetsk City, Minsk 1 be damned. In addition the orcs were reinforcing the area around and in Debaltsyevo with massive amounts of artillery, troops and supply. As Donetsk Armed Forces fought and eventually took the Donetsk Aerodrome, a facility that was to be given to their control in Minsk 1 and this egregious violation, one of many, being studiously ignored by the very signatories, the fronts again exploded in violence and Donetsk Armed Forces, after the ‘cease fire’ agreement known as Minsk 2, then attacked this salient. It was from this salient that orc forces were to attack west and south, cutting off Donetsk City and all the borders with Russia down to the Azov Sea. Debaltsyevo and the salient were actively not included in the Minsk 2 agreement, this at the insistence of Kerry, Golland and Merkel. One could presume that the troika planned to have the orcs attack and carry Donetsk and in effect end the war.

Debaltsyevo was a massive disaster for the orcs. As to be expected outside forces demanded a ceasefire as NAF advanced and cut the salient off creating yet another cauldron. A 24 hour stand down was arranged and reluctantly agreed to by NAF wherein the numerous foreign ‘advisers’ in Debaltsyevo Proper were allowed to evacuate along with certain orc ‘dignitaries’, all of whom were allowed to take what they could put in a backpack, carry their personal weapon and leave. Everything else had to be left behind. Hostilities immediately commenced at 24 hours and 1 second. After several days of heavy fighting which found NAF fighting their way in to Debaltsyevo itself another agreement was arranged with the orcs. In essence it was the same agreement as with the golden pheasants, backpack, weapon and in some instances trucks to carry them. All else stayed in place. The first two small groups of orcs followed the agreement completely and arrived on the other side of the NAF lines near the lakes at the north of the cauldron. The following orc units decided they would take their tanks, AFV’s and artillery with them and the fight, or one should say slaughter, was on. Reliable estimates of orc losses in this evacuation/stampede to run away are 7000 dead orcs. Not only NAF had at them, the locals who had been the victims of orc trepidations exacted a pretty rough revenge, hunting the orcs down in the forests and open lands along the entire retreat route. The locals certainly had access to weapons, the orcs dropped them in the hundreds, then thousands, as they fled.

Since this debacle the orcs have not stopped their continuous and egregious violations of both Minsk agreements, again with the full knowledge of Kerry, Merkel and Golland. The bombardments in the two months have gotten ever more savage and costly to innocent civilians in Donetsk Peoples Republic, after known as DPR, and Lughansk Peoples Republic, after known as LPR. DPR and LPR have started shooting back a month ago, this to the screams of both orc and western media. OSCE is deaf, dumb and blind (and you can take the ‘dumb’ word and use both definitions to describe those wonderful spies in OSCE), to this day blaming Novorossiya for the intense escalations of the bombardments by the orcs in large part and seeing nothing on the orc side but ‘self defense’. When a photo hit the ‘net a few days ago of orc tanks sitting in the middle of undamaged flats buildings in the orc part of Avdeevka to the east of Gorlovka, one could not help but notice two OSCE vehicles sitting within spitting distance of them and one OSCE woman speaking to the tankers. Interestingly this photo has yet to make it to MSM with it’s full content.

I do know know what will happen with the situation in Novorossiya but I do know that whatever happens all will be blamed on V V Putin. However, for those who assign blatant aggression to Mr. Putin and among other falsehoods swear he wants to take all of Ukraine, just stop and think for a moment while you contemplate a map. If Russia wanted Ukraine, and they don’t, Kiev is close enough to the Russian border on the northeast as is a significant portion of the rest of Ukraine. Rostov and Kransnodar Krai sit on the east borders, a short hop across the Azov Sea. Krimea sits on a quarter of the southern borders of Ukraine. The Black Sea Fleet is close enough to the south coast of Ukraine that the fleet can blockade all of the coast in less than 24 hours and de facto can blockade from Krimea.

On the other hand Ukraine will not implode any time soon. While most, not all but most, of the orc armies are in the east fighting Novorossiya there are quite significant units of ‘volunteers’ scattered all over orcland and mainly concentrated in the cities. One move at organized resistance by the citizens and Odessa in ’14 will look like a minor dress rehearsal. The people are not stupid and are completely aware of the situation.

I still keep to my salient thought that the whole Ukraine mess was a ploy to gain control of Krimea and Sevastopol. He who owns Sevastopol owns the Black Sea. Nato/US sitting in Sevastopol, as they fully planned to do and had cadre already here, would have effectively cut off all of Russia from access to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. Dead end, you say? Not hardly, the entirety of southern Europe and north Africa are on the Med. Think about that.

One point I wanted to make about OSCE, who are not just “deaf, dumb and blind”, but more dangerously seem to be an active agent of the ukronazis. Many in Donetsk firmly believe that the targeting of ukronazi’s artillery becomes particularly precise after visits by OSCE. They film, photograph, and otherwise spy in Donbass to pass the targets to ukronazis. Seems totally plausible to me that OSCE consists mostly of western intelligence snooping in Donbass.

They are what they are and have proved that many times over. They tried to come to Krimea, I don’t remember if it was before or shortly after the referendum. A herd of NATO officers demanded entry at the, if memory serves, Armiansk Block Post, clearly stating that as OSCE they had to be let in. Right behind their bus was half a score of buses loaded with right sector boys. When one of the right sector thugs made a point of trying to cross the border he was greeted by a rubber bullet impacting at his right lower rib. Poor boy, actually he had a bit of age on him, got a bruise for his efforts.

OSCE was denied entry to Krimea. Some of the officers were in US Army uniforms and busied themselves with taking photos of the block post, this at a distance. Berkut were all in Balaklava’s so my guess would be the photos didn’t do much good. I am actually a little chagrined that they won’t be coming to my AO, I’d have the honor of spitting in their faces.

On numerous occasions in LNR and DPR OSCE operatives have been caught red handed placing artillery beacons. If you talk to anyone from Serbia they will give you an ear full of their thoughts on those worthies form OSCE.

I think it was before the referendum they tried that. I remember following that story back then.Though I could be wrong on the timing. As for the OSCS and those beacons. As I recall spying and sabotage in wartime earns a death sentence. When caught doing that,the ones doing it should have been shot on the spot.

They are working for Moscow’s partners, and Moscow’s goal is not to win but for her partners to get tired of trying to win. Then the old business-as-usual can resume, with villas and ships on the Mediterranean and no problem spending 10x more on sports events than on scientific R&D because the living is easy.

We have all the copies of that effort. Various works were started on School #5 but only one set of toilet facilities was completed, this next to the athletics room. If you look at this google map, and I hope the grid comes up correctly, it shows Simonka Street coming from the little traffic circle on the right. The large Russian military base was to be US HQ. The extended dacha area to the northwest of the base going down to the best beach on northside was to be bulldozed and become a little piece of American suburbia. School #5 is a little west of the base just off Simonka. At the first curve of Simonka going west from the circle is the Baptist Church, right under the ‘Sim’ of Simonka Street. At the next, and a little more sharp, curve is another school, this one elementary. #5 is a high school. The red roofed flats buildings directly north of the base were not there in ’14 except for the smallest one. This entire area was to become Little America and all the locals moved out with the two schools becoming private, only for the American children.

Some very remarkably strange ideas here, especially the persistent thought that Ukrainian leaders would actually want Ukraine to be invaded, defeated, overrun, wiped out by Russia so that USA and Western Europe could enjoy some “moral & propaganda victory”.—If true, then leaders like that would have to be considered very dangerous traitors against the Ukrainian people. Whom would these leaders really serve? Just their own pockets, figuring they would at the last minute be allowed to run away packing personal fortunes? Or serving someone who wants the destruction of Ukraine and its people just as much as the openly Ukrainophobic Russians?—This whole history of events is truly bizarre.—At the beginning, Ukraine in effect demilitarized itself, had no army to speak of, in reliance on “international law” of the Budapast Memorandum, just totally turned its back on military preparedness or buildup. Ukraine definitely was NOT some armed “Nazi” point of the spear directed against Russia. It also looks like groups within Russia, being quite Ukrainophobic, were plotting the Novorussia project as an effort to dismember and obliterate Ukraine completely [“Ukraine is not a real country or a real nationality”]. And then Ukrainian nationalist forces were also counter-training to prevent the Novorussian project. The warfare erupted, instigated largely by the Muscovite-Russian Strelkov by his own admission, and Ukraine has been bumbling along militarilty with weapons largely 30 years obsolete, cobbling together some sort of armed forces, because the reliance on “international law” of the Budapest Memorandum was clearly misplaced.—If there was some plan by NATO to take over the Crimea as a future NATO-USA military base against Russia, there had to be some horrific miscalculation and incompetence, given that Ukraine was allowed to let its military wither away even as Russia was busy rebuilding its military in all aspects. Given how the local Ukrainian forces in Crimea really put up no resistance to the annexation, this means that they would have likely neutralized any real threat from “Ukronazis”. They were definitely not sympathetic to the so-called “Ukronazis”, and the Russian intervention and annexation were never necessary, the Russian population in Crimea was never in any real danger. But, taking Crimea was natural for those Ukrainophobic Russians who believe that “Ukrainians are not real” in the first place.—Something is really wrong, bizarre, crazy, unbelievable about the whole scenario.—Now, supposedly, the so-called “Ukronazis” simply want to make all of Ukraine as the ultimate “suicide bomber” in the service of the “West”.—I find this idea crazy and not really believable.

“If true, then leaders like that would have to be considered very dangerous traitors against the Ukrainian people. Whom would these leaders really serve? Just their own pockets, figuring they would at the last minute be allowed to run away packing personal fortunes? Or serving someone who wants the destruction of Ukraine and its people just as much as the openly Ukrainophobic Russians?”

A reasonable set of questions, which however suggest that you are somewhat unfamiliar with the history of US foreign policy for the past century and more. Ever since the Americans began their career of imperialism and then neo-imperialism, they have relied heavily on recruiting local quislings who do their bidding down to the last word and act. Plainly those people must be motivated in the same ways as all quislings everywhere.

I particularly refer you to the plain statement of Paul Craig Roberts, previously Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under the Reagan administration, in his address to the Conference on the European/Russian Crisis, Delphi, Greece, June 20-21, 2015. (I strongly recommend reading the whole speech, which is extremely revealing).

‘Sanctions are contrary to Europe’s interests. Nevertheless European governments accommodated Washington’s agenda. The reason was explained to me several decades ago by my Ph.D. dissertation committee chairman who became Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs. I had the opportunity to ask him how Washington managed to have foreign governments act in Washington’s interest rather than in the interest of their own countries. He said, “money.” I said, “you mean foreign [aid]?” He said, “no, we give the politicians bags full of money. They belong to us. They answer to us.”’http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/06/19/paul-craig-roberts-address-international-conference-europeanrussian-crisis-created-washington/

I’ll have to figure you haven’t been following the events there in the last three years written about here. Or, are just a true believer in the Ukrainian ultra-nationalist cause. Probably the latter case.But either way you have it backwards on “who” has caused this trouble.

Not by doing business if it keeps on as it has.
It’ll ‘print money’ and sock it to the public via austerity because it doesn’t understand sovereign fiat debt — like it’s been doing all along.

Of course, if it stopped making war military expenses would drop drastically, and arms companies would have to make something useful, like ‘plowshares’. It would be victory for both Russia and US — and all the world. The US economy would rise, and it would be possible for there to be enough to put people to work making real wealth instead of bombs. US could become a sane, normal country instead of up ending up like Ukraine, where it is headed now. We see what is happening there from it following the principles and policies of the US (it just didn’t have the resources of the US so it happened a lot quicker).

Paul ll, in the days where people fought with swords and shields, then you could solve everything by force. Nowadays, things are different. The economy is global. So if america fought a country like Iran, it would be like having a fight in a porcelain shop. You have to be VERY careful. No one wants to destroy the economy. It will happen though if the other big powers ( Russia and china) feel threated sufficiently.

I would like her to explain a total collapse of the economy when someone in china decides that enough is enough. I feel comfortable that they dont want to go there but if american politicians want to hang themselves… Its their funeral, not mine.

Crimea is part of Russia because Crimeans overwhelmingly voted for that.
It can be argued that any right has some sort of force behind it, as when you have a right not to be mugged because the police (hopefully…) will arrest the mugger, this is not the same as ‘might makes rights’ as you statement seems to imply.

Rights have an ethical basis behind them, however, whether they are violated or not. Even if the cops are on the take or are incompetent so that muggers are given a free you still have the right to not be mugged. Ethically people have all sorts of right which were and are not defended by law, or force, until the struggle for those rights to be observed is won.

As the Declaration of Independence puts it:
“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.” “Unalienable” means they exist whether there is sufficient force to defend them or not, and rights are not earned.

One wonders, “Were you there?”
I was there, less than one year after Crimea got out from under the brutal USSD/CIA/Mossad coup d’etat in Kiev. I went to Crimea and Sebastopol for two weeks. I am fluent in Russian and I talk easily to people. Not that I needed to. Unanimously, they told me that they were, in varying degrees, ecstatic to be back with Russia. Doctors, cab drivers, people in the street, students, professors. they all said this to me.
Only one person was grumpy about the change. A Tartar who was now driving a cab. When I asked him what he did before the almost unanimous Accession of Crimea to Russia he became wary and I had to extract from him the fact that he had been running things across the border from The Ukraine. He did not say what.
Many were alarmed that the West was so uninformed so were all the more eager to deliver their message to me so I could convey it… to people like you.

I have a feeling the Zionists want to make Ukraine second home in case there is a debacle in Israel. This could be also by upping the war in Ukraine, it is to tie Trump’s hand to act against Russia and to tie Putin’s hand in Syria and win on all fronts. Anyways, the war in ME or Ukraine is only going to escalate even if Trump says there won’t be wars;)..don’t think so. Besides, the reason for immigration ban in US is an indication that wars are only going to escalate and the possibility for terrorism attack in US will be higher. At this point, US foreign policy is becoming predictable.

Tuesday, February 7, 2017 – 17:21
Ukraine must impose martial law in Donbass and declare the DPR and the LPR as “the occupied territories”. This was stated from the rostrum of the Verkhovna Rada by Batkivshchyna Party leader Yulia Timoshenko, who stressed that she had come to this conclusion after having visiting the USA.

“We need to stop uttering ‘ATO’ as if it were some mantras. This is not ATO, but a war. We need to stop this fraud and comply with the 106th article of the Constitution and impose martial law in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. This is the first step towards peace because it means protection of our citizens living in the occupied territories, it is the protection of our military, who are absolutely groundlessly accused of looting today when they actually fulfill their obligations on state protection. ”

etc

probably not want Trump had a conversation with her about….gloves are finally off folks?As she jumps on the bandwagon again nuke ’em all?

thanks Saker and Auslander for both an update and a review of the conflict in the Donbass.
As Scott mentioned in his article, major economic hammers are due to come down on the ordinary people of Ukie-land mid February-March so a distracting war would be a tactic for the desperate. It appears that the CIA paid Ukie Generals ( whom the DPR has on a list for future war crimes investigations), are just waiting for the green light.

As for the USA: it is in the throes of sorting out priorities, installing new, untrained leadership and fighting distracting battles. Also, basically no one care about what happens in the Ukraine except the neocons who, having “lost” Syria want to gain their balls back in the Ukraine. Trump figures it is Europe’s problem and will not take on this mess left by the previous administration–not when he has Iran to “sort out” and wants to “make a deal” with the Russians for fighting Wahabi Terrorism in the mid East and maybe standing down on Iran.

As for the World Corporate Media screaming about Russian troops in Ukraine: that already Is the meme so this accusation, true or not, will be received almost like that of the little boy who cried wolf . One disturbing aspect to the crumbling of the Ukraine is those 14 nuclear reactors: Russia may have no choice in seizing these for its own biological survival if things get disorganized enough and if the bureaucrats and scientists tasked with running these are venal or incompetent.

One would think that with a concerted air campaign and the usual Russian tactic of “shell the H-ll” out of them , perfected over centuries, it would be a few days if not hours that the Ukies would be running West and the Minsk II lines reestablished. Let’s see if the left in the West can muster up some peace demonstrations to restrain the feckless EU leadership from trying to unleash NATO or some gung-ho neocon NATO general from doing something stupid in Estonia.

Saker, in reply to your points:
1. 120 000 is too high; even a headline number like that gives no real idea of effectiveness, and as an attacking force, what with very low morale, drunkeness, corruption, problems between officers and below, means they could be heading for a massacre.
The Donbass defenders have right on their side, high motivation, fighting for their people, their homes and their land, better trained, and yes, with Russian backing, volunteers and ‘volunteers’, including sophisticated intel as in electronic detection systems etc, and Spetsnaz – like in Feb 2015…
4. Saker, can you mention some quotes of the top people in kiev what negative/derogatory remarks they made about Trump? Sources would be very good, and even better both languages: originals with translation, but must be accurate. This could be very important, for onward transmission (no promises though)…
5. Saker, reading (almost) daily reports of SMM, & Basurin, the terrorist attackers have had those heavy weapons inside the Minsk agreed off limit area for a long time, and they move them around there. There were reports of 6 then 8 Tochka ballistic missiles, and today Zakh said there were only 6, and subject to not working properly may blow up on launch/be duds, but some may actually work.
6. Minsk has been dead for a long time, and is actually a pile of sh!t – it’s merely a blocking mechanism but is really irrelevant other than that; the DPR/LPR are de facto independent republics as is their democratic right through self-determination.
7. Tsarev – what do you think of him, Saker? – says he has heard that Trump will send his people to kiev within 2 weeks.
February is a bad month for those shit terrorist attackers: we are coming up to the anniversary date of Debaltsevo, and what has happened to them so far augurs well for even worse to befall them if they are mad enough to launch a bigger offensive.
As it is, I am still of the opinion that they won’t, that is, won’t be able to get an offensive going big enough to make major gains.

While these events create fear and tension it seems more likely that mass desertion and surrender will stall this offensive. To fight to win is one thing; but to fight and win only to have the Russian army retake and repel must taste like ashes in ones mouth. By now the Ukrainians must realise who their real enemies are.

I have been waiting for The President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin to lobby the US and the EU to give Ukraine lots of money. The IMF too, though that is just the US treasury. As Petro Wonka goes around the world trying to grab other peoples’ money, how funny if the Russian brass call for mercy and request that the worlds poor taxpayers show charity for this illegitimate Billionaire. I’m sure the EU and the US would be happy for Russias’ support for its satrap.

My 10-year U.S. visa, which I just got before the New Year was just revoked. The consular officer said that he had such instructions from Washington.

And I have instructions from the Ukrainian people – to demand that the US fulfills its obligations to Ukraine under the Budapest Memorandum, otherwise Ukraine will have to restore nuclear weapons to protect itself.

Also, we strongly condemn the new IMF memorandum, which preserves the status of Ukraine as a resource colony. I think it is because I stand for the national interests of Ukraine, not Moscow or Washington, the unprecedented decision to revoke my visa was made.

Good-bye, America!

I will pay a visit when Ukrainians will choose me as their President. And now instead of visiting US, I will visit our people who need not a visa or a visa-free regime but work and a decent life.

” US and EU cannot allow Russian to openly defeat the Ukrainians without reacting.”

And what are they going to do about it?
Put on more sanctions? Move NATO troops in and go to war with Russia? Ship more weapons to the Ukrops as McCain is already trying to? Say nasty things about Putin and Russia? Cry and whine?
What can they do which they have not already been doing all along, and has been pretty much useless?

‘Cannot allow’ like a poodle cannot allow a bear to walk through the woods: it can bark, but that’s all. The poodles barked at Syria, while in a stronger position than in Ukraine. They barked at Crimea too. So what? It’s time to pull what teeth are left in Kiev’s Ukraine to protect Donbas and let them then deal with having to eat what soft mush they can find, and explain to the Ukrainian people what justification Kiev has in continuing to rule over them. Where is a political victory for the West in this, if Russia does enforce Minsk as the US and EU have been screaming for?

Whose politics are going to win anything from ending Poroshenko’s and the nazis’ atrocities? How are the neocons/libs going to look better when the nazis are defeated? Do they look better from what’s happened in Syria? Look better to whom? Lets look at real politicks, real power, and the real world.

At the moment, there is no predictable outcome to an dramatic escalation of war in Ukraine. Washington is in disarray because factions are re-aligning, making alliances, breaking those alliances, combining with other groups and so on. Trump, so far, is isolated and at the mercy of those factions all trying to pull him here and there. When Trump came to office, to avoid a coup, he had to make alliances with some of the guys with gunz and sections of the oligarchy–but the situation in Washington is still up for grabs, in my view and will be for a few months until the pecking order is sorted out. A major Ukraine/Russian war would possibly force NATO to act independently because unity has not yet been achieved in Washington and what that would mean is anyone’s guess.

1. Unless secret talks to that effect were held between Trump’s and Putin’s emissaries, in no way will Trump be part of the solution at this stage.

2. Unless secrets talks to that effect were held between Merkel, Hollande and Putin, in no way will Europe be part of the solution at this stage either.

3. It is therefore for Russia and Novorussia to resolve by imposing peace on Kiev, the sooner the better, and in operations conducted at the speed of lightning. This situation has been decaying for much too long. Those parties have nothing to gain anymore from an unduly prolonged conflict in which a key party, i. e. Ukraine, won’t have anything to do with Minsk, that is with the prospect of a peaceful solution. It’s been known since the very beginning that neither Ukraine, nor the Empire, was open to a peaceful solution of the conflict, which would therefore only end with a military victory… or the collapse of Ukraine… which did not happen.

This might work but you have to understand that, so far, in Washington Trump is not in charge but is at the mercy of various power-factions who are grappling still as I write this. If Russia reacts strongly then the faction of the Deep State that seeks war with Russia will gain a foothold and the Mighty Wurlitzer will create a deafening tune whose result is utterly unpredictable.

I agree with those in the Kremlin who would like to see Putin finally put an end to this. Just sweep in, destroy the Ukraine military, especially the neo-Nazi organizations, dump the politicians, assassinate the oligarchs, appoint a puppet regime, and – critically – GO HOME.

This will leave Ukraine a mess, but a relatively peaceful mess. Russia can deal with the international complaints by saying, “See? It’s peaceful there now.” :-) If Russia commits enough forces and does its usual careful planning, NATO won’t be able to do a damn thing and neither will the US. It will all be over in 72 hours.

Far simpler would be to go in under the NATO ideological banner of R2P (cute! almost like R2D2)
Responsibility to Protect. It was the formula derived to absolve NATO and the US of war crimes following the brutal genocidal attack on Serbia. It would be funny-as-hell if Russia cites it to destroy the remnants of the Anglo-Zionist project in the former The Ukraine.

These Ukrainian boys need to be hit with psyops asap. Let them know what it means for their future, and the future of their families and country to follow the right-wing fascists in Kiev. Make sure they all know that the CIA funded and arranged all of it, and that they should stop being puppets of the CIA!

It is unavoidably necessary to think completely outside the box, IMO, because only ideas that are “completely crazy” can make sense of this.

What if the orcs in Palestine have decided that they have gone as far as they can go ? The Goyim are in open revolt in Britain, in Italy, in Greece, in the USA, France is on the edge . . . Time to cash in their chips and run for cover, because successfully sicing them on the RF is increasingly unlikely — if only from mutiny by US generals who are still sane. The likelihood of orders tantamount to “Commit Suicide by Nuclear Weapons”* (national and personal) being obeyed = ?

At the same time, the USA could easily be embroiled in an all-out Civil War in a matter of days, which would likely provoke its troops stationed abroad (91 countries officially admitted) into mutiny if ordered to attack RF while Soros & Co. are killing their families back home.

Total game-changer !

But wait — it gets better ! What if Soros, the US technocomplex (Google, Microsoft, Twitter, Reddit & similar scum) are, in reality polezniye duraki — “useful idiots” — agents de-stabilizing the US with plans in place to launch a coup d’etat without warning ? Stranger situations have been demonstrated — 9/11, e.g. Entire US air defenses shut down on orders from the Pentagon

Now the plot sickens :
………………
*The US destroyer USS Donald Cook, equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles entered the neutral waters of the Black Sea on April 10, 2014. The purpose was a demonstration of force and intimidation in connection with the position of Russia in Ukraine and Crimea. The appearance of American warships in these waters is in contradiction of the Montreux Convention about the nature and duration of stay in the Black Sea by the military ships of countries not washed by this sea. In response, Russia sent an unarmed bomber Su- 24 to fly around the U.S. destroyer. However, experts say that this plane was equipped with the latest Russian electronic warfare complex. According to this version, Aegis spotted from afar the approaching aircraft, and sounded alarm. Everything went normally, and the American radars calculated the speed of the approaching target. But suddenly all the screens went blank. Aegis was not working any more, and the rockets could not get target information. Meanwhile, Su-24 flew over the deck of the destroyer, did battle turn and simulated a missile attack on the target. Then it turned and repeated the maneuver. And did so 12 times.

An unheeded warning, apparently, because (same article i osnet daily)

From the combat zone in northern Syria comes news of the deployment of a new Russian electronic jamming system which can reportedly blind radar, disrupt electronic guidance systems, and interfere with satellite imagery as well. As a result, NATO is effectively blinded inside a bubble of 600 km in diameter centered on the Russian base at Latakia, reports, Thierry Meyssan from Damascus . . . The Mi8-MTPR1-based Richag-AV platform, using multi-beam antenna arrays with DRFM technology, is designed to actively jam and thus ‘blind’ radar systems in order to defend against radio-electronic guided weapons systems. In a combat situation, the system would operate as part of an aviation shock attack group aimed at breaking through virtually any defense system, blinding everything up to and including the US MIM-104 ‘Patriot’ anti-aircraft missile system.
………………
Bottom line of this web of double-crossings ?

Rather than let their own Zionazi crazies trigger WW III, orcs in RF (where they still “have it good”) provoke outright Civil War in the USA. And while Trump’s people are trying to decide whether to “sh*t or go blind,” the entire American Expeditionary Force, from Eastern Europe to Syria to the Black Sea is electronically shut down — completely blinded.

Waging war on two fronts is a losing proposition, and fighting one abroad while in a state of civil insurrection (California/Left Coast declaring independence = no Pacific ports) impossible. Time to choose.

Sabotaging the saboteur ? Two can play this game ? Dose of your own medicine (actually the orc’s but why quibble ? Official narrative is US vs. RF).

Crazy ideas. But otherwise,only insanity can explain this situation. I.e., Only “insanity” can preserve the idea of sanity behind it.

The big problem with this analysis is that for the most part it is based on wishful thinking.

While I’m certain the Novorussians are able to defend against any conceivable NeoNazi attack, it is clear that Ukrainian force’s morale is at an all time low and that they would not be able to put up a spirited attack, especially if in support of the NeoNazis.

Russia can’t afford to open a second front while it is in Syria. America has just proved how utterly inept it is in Yemen when Navy Seals were detected by a village dog, after which they panicked killing 57 mostly women and children.

Pepe Escobar has written a good piece on this debacle. Trump’s military advisors are all congenital idiots and Trump is out of his depth on anything other than real estate deals.

So you are left with Porky, a few NeoNazi thugs and a few hundred American mercenaries who have been watching too many cowboy and indian films for their own good.

While I’m sure the Americans will team up with their fascist friends the NeoNazis and commit some atrocity somewhere in Ukraine, a major conflict before April is very unlikely.

The problem for Russia invading Ukraine or part of it is that Putin would have to commit to disabling near NATO forces at some point. This would mean the use of tactical nuclear weapons such as Kaliber and Iskander.

This scenario would be disastrous. At best Putin might support Novorussia with tactical artillery strikes and a few non nuclear Kaliber if things got out of hand.

Some sort of conflict will probably ensue. However, in this case numbers probably mean nothing. The bulk of those Ukranian troops are poorly trained conscripts, whose moral is almost rock bottom. Some time ago they were invloved in a limited “battle”, and got thrashed. Porky can only rely on the neo-nazi volunteer troops, who are of limited number. If Porky does attack, he will suffer another defeat.

I think all those arguments are pretty strong. The main reason seems to be ukies are unsure what Trump is going to do. If they don’t know, it increases the chance of attack now. If they know he won’t get involved, they may try to force him to get involved, again increasing the chance of attack now. If they have some secret backdoor information favorable to them, they could afford to wait till core spring. All evidence currently point that they perceive the situation as unfavorable. Separately Ukraine UNSC leadership for February also increases the chance of attacking now. Hence under no circumstances is it beneficial for them to let the conflict freeze.

The main tactical issue and threat for Russia in this is what the NATO missile shield, swappable to cruise missiles in Romania, Bulgaria and Poland are going to do. Due to the short reaction time it should almost basically be decided beforehand a Donbass peacekeeping involving operation is enforced what to do with those, in the case that McCainers indeed do get to choose the premature fate of humanity.

Well its really quite straightforward. I think that there was no protection or Batman, Mozgovoi, Motorola, or Givi. Why – am unwritten expediency which these, now regretfully dead, actors where all aware of. Local interest proxies and Big states are marginally less ugly than global hegemony. That diminishes no-one. We are all hoping and some are fighting against dystopia.

As I recall in November 2014 Putin being interviewed on German TV said this of Kiev’s war against the Don Bass and its people:

”Today there is fighting in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian central authorities have sent the armed forces there and they even use ballistic missiles. Does anybody speak about it? Not a single word. And what does it mean? What does it tell us? This points to the fact, that you want the Ukrainian central authorities to annihilate everyone there, all of their political foes and opponents. Is that what you want? We certainly don’t. And we won’t let it happen.”

This seems unequivocal, a policy position made partly out of loyalty to ethnic Russians in the Eastern Oblasts, but perhaps more importantly, it is more a question of realpolitik. Does President P want the Ukie army in a unitary Ukrainian state right up against Russia’s border less than 100 km from Rostov-On-Don? To even raise the question is to answer it. Emphatically no! Putin was prepared to defend Russian interests on foreign soil in Georgia, and Syria, since had he not done he would be fighting jihadis in Chechnya and Dagestan. The same logic goes for Ukraine. There is no question of an integrated peaceful Ukraine as both the ukie neo-nazis are utterly opposed to anything other than the ethnic cleansing of the whole area and the population Don Bass people will resist until their last drop of blood. The options available are 1. A frozen conflict, 2. Outright secession by Donetsk and Lugansk with or without Russian recognition. 3. A bogus integration of the Don Bass within the neo-nazi/oligarchic Ukraine which in fact would be a DE FACTO secession. None of the actors is going to return Ukraine to a status quo ante as existed prior to the Maidan in 2014, primarily because they don’t want to. Given these facts on the ground is seems rather a flight of fancy to talk in any meaningful sense about the Minsk accords. The Neo-nazis won’t stop their aggression (and Poroshenko cannot stop them) and the DPR have no other option than to fight for their homeland.

Neither side can win, and neither side can lose …. it looks like a frozen conflict to me.

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