Catastrophic yes, but by no means fatal

Picking over the Australian Labor Party debris from Saturday’s NSW electoral wipeout, former NSW Labor premier
Bob Carr
has found one nugget of hope. “It’s a disastrous defeat, a catastrophic defeat [but] you’d be wrong to see this as an existential defeat of the ALP. It’s one the parliamentary Labor Party can recover from," Carr tells The Australian Financial Review.

However, there is a massive IF – one that goes deep within the corrosive culture of the NSW Labor Party and the sleaze, corruption and incompetence that destroyed the 16-year-old state Labor government. Carr, who held office for a record 10 years and four months from 1995-2005, says the “if" factor means “provided the party deals with the worst elements of the NSW Labor Right".

As Carr says, the “worst elements" were “identified by
Nathan Rees
" – NSW Labor premier for 15 months until he was replaced by
Kristina Keneally
at the end of 2009.

On the day he lost the leadership, Rees told astonished members of the parliamentary press gallery: “Should I not be premier by the end of this day, let there be no doubt in the community’s mind, no doubt, that any challenger will be a puppet of Eddie Obeid and Joe Tripodi. The presence of such a group within the nation’s oldest and proudest political party is intolerable. Their treachery and disloyalty can be borne no longer."

However, NSW Labor Party president Michael Lee is not, at this stage, calling for any “root and branch" reform of the state ALP. Speaking carefully, he says the reasons for Labor’s catastrophic defeat will be discussed at the state ALP conference in June and “I am keen for that to be a forum for as many people as possible to discuss the lessons to be learned from our defeat."

And there is much to discuss. At the time of writing, the ALP has 17 seats in a 93-member NSW lower house, and may win a total of 22. The Coalition has 66, and is likely to end up with 68. This is the worst defeat for the NSW Labor Party for more than a century and ranks with the wipeout of the Queensland ALP in the 1974 state election.

However, Carr, who won three elections, sees a possible turnaround scenario for NSW Labor. Flamboyant literary figure
Bob Ellis
“said to me on Saturday night", Carr says, “that there’s a transitoriness about the vote for [NSW Liberal Leader]
Barry O’Farrell
. You’d expect that, in the scheme of things, the Labor vote will bounce back by 10 per cent quite quickly." Further, if the new government sacks thousands of public sector employees, “you’d expect even [a bigger bounce] than that".

But what policies should a humbled NSW Labor Party adopt? “It’s too early to say the day after the election, but it should be a concentration on state issues." State government, he says, is a “balancing act between fiscal responsibility and funding services, how to advance the economy but give people more value". There should be “innovation in schools and health and how you plan a city of 4.5 million people".

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He draws solace from the performance of former deputy premier
Carmel Tebbutt
who held onto her inner Sydney seat of Marrickville against a strong Greens challenge. This “has put a ceiling on Greens support", Carr says.

Then Carr’s conversation takes an unusual turn. In a state notorious for political vitriol, and the night after a gracious victory speech by O’Farrell and a dignified concession speech by retiring Labor leader Keneally, Carr says, “Congratulations to Barry O’Farrell and his front bench, some of whom have been slaving away for more than 10 years. They have now got a chance to prove themselves and be part of a strong government that should be able to do things better. The electorate is always the master and it’s always right."