tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post1565945195834957029..comments2015-07-27T16:41:08.492-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: A One State Presidential Election in 2012?Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-32700384847307510882009-01-12T14:07:00.000-05:002009-01-12T14:07:00.000-05:00Four years is an eternity in the political sense, ...Four years is an eternity in the political sense, but at this point, it seems as though the GOP will have some difficulty in 2012. The recent defeats in 2006 and 2008 have removed a lot of moderate members and/or GOP legislators from swing/lean-blue states. Just looking at a few senators: Smith-OR, Coleman-MN, Dole-NC, Sununu-NH. Others have retired: Warner-VA, Dominichi-NM, Hagel-NE, and Gregnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-59965183621753487042009-01-12T10:53:00.000-05:002009-01-12T10:53:00.000-05:00Hmm...the home state question is interesting. Seem...Hmm...the home state question is interesting. Seems to me the GOP has a problem in that they're both quasi-regional <I>and</I> fractured. So unless things change a lot, they may need a VP and President from different factions (e.g. a social conservative and a business-friendly type). There are enough different factions, that they would love to get combos in one candidate (social conservative/low SarahLawrenceScotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-9895552914002508422009-01-11T20:02:00.000-05:002009-01-11T20:02:00.000-05:00Anon6:10,If there is a shift toward the GOP, in 20...Anon6:10,<BR/>If there is a shift toward the GOP, in 2012, we could see Arizona stay about the same, but instead of being pro-McCain, the shift would be pro-(generic)Republican. In that case, though, the Grand Canyon state would likely jump up some states in the ECS rankings.<BR/><BR/>Colorado and Virginia are pretty bare as far as prospective national Republican candidates are concerned. If Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-51164622162583753752009-01-11T18:10:00.000-05:002009-01-11T18:10:00.000-05:00Won't Arizona get closer without McCain on the tic...Won't Arizona get closer without McCain on the ticket?<BR/><BR/>(Also, what would be the effect of the GOP choosing a candidate from Colorado and VP from Virginia? Are there plausible scenarios for this? Which states would be best for the GOP to pick their candidates from?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-8973934575466465092008-12-31T14:29:00.000-05:002008-12-31T14:29:00.000-05:00Losing candidate in each state, not overall. Gore...Losing candidate in each state, not overall. Gore lost Florida and Bush lost Oregon, for instance.<BR/><BR/>...but yeah, that was somewhat ambiguous.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-13584276034737538602008-12-31T14:07:00.000-05:002008-12-31T14:07:00.000-05:00"Florida was the closest state in 2000 in terms of..."Florida was the closest state in 2000 in terms of results but Iowa, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin were also well within striking distance for the losing candidate."<BR/><BR/>Josh, I believe Gore officially lost that election.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Presidential_Election,_2000#Close_states" REL="nofollow">According to Wikipedia,</A> the only other state Jackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-76117865814787689952008-12-31T13:24:00.000-05:002008-12-31T13:24:00.000-05:00Scott,I don't think it is plausible that the candi...Scott,<BR/>I don't think it is plausible that the candidates chase just one state if the election is close in 2012. I don't think it is plausible in the same way that it was not the strategy for Bush/Gore in 2000 or Bush/Kerry in 2004.<BR/><BR/>Florida was the closest state in 2000 in terms of results but Iowa, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin were also well within striking distance for the Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-48633157521831424012008-12-31T01:16:00.000-05:002008-12-31T01:16:00.000-05:00There's a difference between an election decided b...There's a difference between an election decided by a single state and an election where a single state is the main battleground. The first case could always happen if an election is sufficiently close. The second only happens when there aren't plausible alternate paths to victory the day before the election.<BR/><BR/>So suppose we have a close election in 2012. Is it really plausible that both SarahLawrenceScotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.com