The U.S. population is relatively young by European standards, with less than 13 percent age 65 or older, ranking as the 38th oldest country.

The aging of the baby-boom generation in the United States will push the proportion of older Americans to 20 percent by 2030 it will still be lower than in most Western European countries.

The older share of the population is expected to more than double between 2000 and 2030 in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. Aging is occurring more slowly in sub-Saharan Africa, where relatively high birth rates are keeping the population young.

4(No Transcript) 5(No Transcript) 6Speed of Population Aging in Selected CountriesNumber of Years for Percent of Population Age 65 or Older to Rise from 7 to 14More developed countriesLess developed countries 7Why is the Developed World Growing Older?

Decreased birthrates

Increased life expectancy

8Fertility Rate

China

6.38 in 1968

1.92 in 1992

1.85 in 2004

1.75 in 2007

1.70 in 2050

United States

2.46 in 1968

2.05 in 1992

2.04 in 2004

2.09 in 2007

2.19 in 2050

9Life Expectancy (US)

The age for social security (65) was set in 1935

12 years was the average life expectancy after retirement. (77 male)

1997 life expectancy 80/84

2070 life expectancy 83/89

Retirement age would be 72 if life expectancy was indexed based on 1935

10Aging in ChinaPercent of Elderly (65) in Chinas Population, 1950-2050Source World Population Prospects The 2004 Revision (2005). 11Costs of Aging

When workforce shrinks so does GDP

Japan Russia workforce will decline 34 by 2050

China 3

Elderly tend to be more conservative

Less entrepreneurship?

Reduced productivity

Reduced savings?

Higher interest rates

12Costs of aging (cont)

Pressure on Government resources

Retirement/health care costs

Pay as you go retirement systems

Current workers support current retirees

By 2050 the US will spend 20 GDP on social programs for the elderly

Government Revenues (tax) only supply 18 GDP

13Implications of Aging

The United States will experience a significant increase in population over age 65.

The United States will still be in better shape than most of the world (including our chief rival China)

Aging populations will necessitate massive outlays of government funds.

Funding this outlay will likely result in retrenchment of overseas obligations.

Elder care will shift the paradigm from compassion to national security

14United States

Youngest of all G-8 nations

Highest fertility rate

Highest immigration rate

Working age populations are on the decline except for US which predicted to increase 31 by 2050.

15China

2050 the median age will be 45

Dependency rate rises from 101 to 2.51 in 2050

Unprepared to pay the bill

80 of households have less than 1 year of savings

75 of workers have no pension coverage

One child law and urbanization have destroyed traditional elder care structures

US is aging to lesser a extent and is better prepared to absorb the shock

States will have to crowd out military spending for elder care

This is already happening in Japan

17Some bad news

No great power can overtake us but crowding out of military spending will possibly mean the end of coalition actions

Rising costs will not allow to maintain our current level of power projection

18The War on Terror

In 2000 45 of all citizens in middle east were 15-29 years old

Unemployment higher than 26

By 2030 these youth bulges should subside and help bring stability.

Aging is the key to victory?

19DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES WILL BE THE KEY DRIVERS OF THE ECONOMY AND NATIONAL DEFENSE 20Questions?

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