Saturday, March 13, 2010

As expected, the bubble picture cleared up a bit on Friday. San Diego State and Georgia Tech both locked down their bids, while Virginia Tech and Florida moved closer to the bubble and onto our Last Five In list. We used a Last Five In list today (instead of the traditional Last Four In list) because those five teams are the only ones who we could see not making the final bracket if things break a certain way over the weekend.

The Big Ten was the big winner overall on Friday. Minnesota and Illinois were added to our latest bracket, while Mississippi State and Tulsa were removed. The Gophers and Illini both pulled off upsets on Friday, and they are now in position to lock up their bids with wins in the Big Ten semis. As long as Washington is not blown out by Cal, we like the Huskies' chances for a bid as well. The last thing that Virginia Tech needed was a bad loss to close out the season, but that's what happened against Miami. The Hokies just need to hope now that the Miami or N.C. State does not win the ACC tourney and they should be safe on Sunday.

With UTEP now in the C-USA final, we were forced to abandon our C-USA bid-stealer. The opportunity for bid-stealers still exists in the WAC and C-USA, but we just don't see it happening with the way that Utah State and UTEP have played. The only other spot where a bid-stealer is still possible is in the ACC, with N.C. State and Miami still being alive. The only teams that we do not currently have in who we could see getting an at-large still are Mississippi State and Rhode Island. If URI can get by Temple on Saturday, they would put themselves in good shape for an at-large. Mississippi State, meanwhile, picked up a big win over Florida on Friday, which means a win in the semis over Vanderbilt would probably be enough to warrant a bid. If the Bulldogs do find a way to win on Saturday, then Florida fans need to be worried about the Gators' at-large chances.

The biggest seed climbers after Friday's results were Georgetown moving from a 4 to a 3, Tennessee and Vanderbilt going from 5s to 4s, Cal and UNLV going from 9s to 7s, and SDSU going from a 12 to a 10. The biggest declines were Michigan State going from a 3 to a 5, Maryland dropping from a 4 to a 5, and Marquette and Florida State going from 7s to 9s.

We will now go into weekend lockdown mode and will release our final bracket on Sunday afternoon. For the first time in the history of Bracketology 101, Chris and Craig will be together on Sunday to complete their final bracket. Hopefully the two minds being together in the same room on Selection Sunday will lead to going 65/65 for the first time ever and once again seeding at least 60 teams within one spot of their seed line and at least 40 teams exactly on their seed.

If Illinois and Minnesota both lose today and URI wins then the Rams will likely be in over both Big Ten schools. Then the tough decision will have to be made on who between Illinois and Minnesota has a better resume. Their RPIs are very similar as are their good wins. Minnesota has one or two more questionable losses and finished a game behind in conference, but they also have a better record down the stretch and they recently won at Illinois.

Does Rhode Island have any big wins? Minnesota has beaten every single tournament bound team in their conference, AND Butler. Rhode Island has 4 losses against non-tournament teams, and has failed to secure a single victory over a tournament bound team from their conference

Minmesota may have more bad losses, but how can you let a team in whose best victory is over expected 8th seeded Oklahoma State?

Although my original statement overstated their success, they still have an impressive number of big wins for a bubble team. They match it with 6 losses to non-tournament teams, but I'll take a team with 4 more big wins before I'll take a team with 2 fewer bad losses.

Don't forget to consider the "Always-find-a-way-to-break-my-heart" factor when it comes to Minnesota sports. I can pretty much guarantee that Minnesota will be the "first team out" when its all over tomorrow. Something will happen that will defy logic to put us out.

Does the Gopher win over Sparty get downgraded a little because Chris Allen didn't play and Summers was benched most of the game? Just wondering, nothing against the Gophers. I actually like their chances against Purdue if they play with the same intensity they had yesterday.

Don't put it past Izzo to know going in after two close wins over Minnesota in the regular season that his chances of beating them a third time were slim. I'll leave it up to you to determine whether Izzo saw any upsides to benching Allen, i.e., so that excuses such as the one you are now making could be made for them. I'm sure he had other reasons too, but that sure sweetened the pot. Typical. Minnesota was going to win that game, no matter what.

PSU last year had better wins in conference than Minn this year, and they were the first team out. Itbehooves Minn to win one or two more games. They're a talented team that probably shouldn't be in this situation.

I agree Minnesota may have to win again, or at least lose by less than 10. And, unlike my previous statement about manifest destiny beating Michigan State, I can't say the same about Purdue. But without Hummel, I'd say the chances are good. Yes, if talent was the sole arbiter, Minnesota would definitely be in. When they play, they can play with anyone.

Why is VT ahead of Florida in your pecking order. 4 more losses but they didn't rack the wins up against as many bad teams as VT. They have have better wins. VT is 0-4 vs the top 25. You can make a case for Illinois to be ahead of them too already even with a loss today.

B101, if Illinois finishes the day with a loss to Ohio State, and then makes the tourney, they will do so with 7 wins against teams .500 or better. Is there any precedent for an at large team winning with such a non-existent profile?

10:42 anonymous... Virginia tech went 10-6 in the #1 rated Pomeroy and the number 2 sagarin conference, is 34th in said pomeroy ratings, and has 8 losses on the season, all of them to top 65 teams in the pomeroy rating. There is no way in hell they get left out.

Anonymous, Do not be surprised if Virginia Tech is left out. Their OOC resume and SOS is pathetic. The Hokie's resume reminds me a lot of Penn State last year. Why reward a team for scheduling cream puffs in OOC? You also can't just go by their 10-6 conference record because the Hokies only had to play Duke, Maryland, and Clemson 1 time. Virginia beat up on the bottom of the conference. 2 losses to last place Miami will not impress the committee.

James, I'm sure Rhode Island and new mexico are hated because winning a bad conference and killing everyone in it means practically nothing. And finishing 4th in an OK conference means even less. New Mexico could become the first 2 seed in recent memory with no elite-level wins.

Tim, I see where you're coming from. 2 losses to a team that specializes in upsets aren't impressive by any stretch of the word, except maybe if you took the word at it's literal meaning, which would be something in the realm of "That which makes an impression" and added that it was a negative impression. HOWEVER, with a weak bubble, the fact that VT went 14-6 vs BCS competition, has 8 losses vs Illinois' 14, and only 1 came at home(maryland), I think VT is safe.

"PSU last year had better wins in conference than Minn this year, and they were the first team out."

how do you know that? the committee doesn't reveal this information and you only know that PSU didn't get a bid.

I don't "know", but it's a pretty safe assumption that if the tournament was 66 teams PSU would've been the next team selected. Most bracketologists had the last team in as either St. Marys, PSU, or Arizona and Arizona made it. PSU went 10-8 last year in a conference that sent 7 other teams dancing, so the committee held the Big Ten in very high esteem.

On that note, VT might have a long wait. They have a similar profile to PSU last year, only with fewer big conference wins due to the unbalanced ACC schedule.

I comment on this site too much not to use my name... BYU is another team in the mold of NM, dominating a bad conference, and is not an impressive win, if you judge a team by who they've beaten, which in BYU's case is nobody. Cal's best wins are ASU, ASU, Washington and MURRAY state. Doesn't really spell elite, does it? Dayton went 8-8 in said 6th ranked conference, and has GT as its best win, also not really elite, Texas A&M looks better in real life than it does on paper, with their best wins being baylor, mizzou, and post-apocalyptic Texas. You can build a tourney resume on wins over the 3rd, 5th, 6th, and seventh bwest teams in your conference, but it won't be an elite one. UNLV's best wins are SDSU, a split with NM, and louisville. Again, not very elite.

You think Gtown will keep a three if they lose tonight and if they win are they maxed at a three or could they get a two. Their 7th in RPI and would almost certainly keep 7th if they win tonight but they have 9 losses so I'm not sure if they have a shot at a two and was curious what others thought.

Also, totally agree with appisedant at 7:40 AM EST, I get that UNM lost to a legit tourney bound team so its not a bad loss, but looking at their schedule I see no really quality wins and they've fallen to 13th in the RPI, sure they have a good record but alone is it enough for a 3 seed.

On that note, VT might have a long wait. They have a similar profile to PSU last year, only with fewer big conference wins due to the unbalanced ACC schedule.

On the other hand, they could be the 6th team called off the board, no? The ACC is filled top-to-bottom with good-to-very good teams, with its top 2 being very good, and duke being a top 5 team in the country. There isn't a real cellar in the ACC, the 2 worst-in-conference teams are in the semi's of the tournament. The 10 seed has 2 top 25 wins, OSU and MSU.

James, someone just gave you a great breakdown. Dayton is not a tourny bound team, so NO, it is not a good win. Two of the others are in conference wins, and it has been broken down multiple times that the only reason either of those teams look impressive is because of their in conference wins. A and M is not an impressive win. A and M doesn't have an impressive resume and has been dominated by KU and KSU.

URI had a crappy OOC schedule, and did nothing in conference.

Temple scheduled Georgetown, Va Tech, Villanova, and KU out of conference. Those are quality games, and they won half of them. That's impressive.

BYU, URI, UNM, and UNLV all scheduled crap schedules, and therefore have pretty good records. Beating crappy teams shouldn't win accolades from the committee or fans.

Anonymous, Virginia Techs' non-conference schedule was pathetic. Illinois play a tough non-conference schedule and beat Clemson and Vanderbilt. Teams that challenge themselves in ooc should be rewarded over teams that play weak ooc schedules. Seth Greenberg chose to schedule easy and may get burned by it. Horrible scheduling on his part.

Oh, and by the way I'm a Michigan fan. I haven't even tried to defend them since their second loss to an unranked team. They suck and I know they suck.

I've also been praising the Big East all season. I hate the Big East. Every football season I complain all the way until January about how overrated the Big East is and how crap all of their schedules are.

It just so happens that the Big East is much better at basketball than they are at football, and that this season is no exception. They've dominated the entire NCAA field. I have no doubt in my mind that the 9th, 10th, and 11th best teams in the Big East would easily make the tournament if they were in any other conference.

A Piss: New Mexico was willing to go out on the road and play 5 road games. Some teams only play 1 true road game in pre league play. You better check your facts before criticizing the New Mexico schedule. Playing Oral Roberts is far from easy. If its so easy, why aren't big CBS schools willing to play at Oral Roberts? New Mexico also played Cal, Dayton, Texas Tech, Creighton, Louisiana Tech, and Texas A&M. Anyone who follows CBB closely knows these are not "crappy" teams like Piss said. The Mountain West conference is solid this year and they will prove it in March. Piss is uninformed and will be proven wrong.

The ACC isn't that special. The 10th best team might have two quality wins over OSU and MSU out of conference, but that's more OOC wins against 6 or better seeded teams than the top 4 ACC teams combined.

How does it prove the quality of a conference if the 10th best team in the conference has the most impressive OOC record?

No, but we don't leave out the teams that were lazy and scheduled creampuffs, and include all of the teams that tried real hard... It doesn't matter if the game looked better a year ago on their schedule, the team you play is the one that counts on the resume, and Arizona was awful.

William & Mary deserves credit for going on the road and beating Maryland and Wake Forest. Are Maryland and Wake making a return trip to the W&M campus? Or are Dino Gaudio and Gary Williams too scared?

Yeah, the picture on my profile is of my car... with OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY written across the window. Do you consider Colonial a small conference?

I don't like most of the teams I'm arguing for, and have nothing against the teams I'm arguing against.

I do like quality basketball games, and UNM vs. Oral Roberts definitely doesn't count as that.

And as to anonymous, the fact I mentioned means that the top 4 teams in the ACC aren't good enough to beat OSU and MSU, or anyone of that caliber. Do you not see the flaw in your logic? You're essentially arguing that paper is better than scissors because rock breaks scissors and paper covers rock.

The #1 ACC team lost to Wisconsin and Georgetown. #2 lost to Villanova, William and Mary, Cincinatti, and Wisconsin. #3 lost to Florida, and OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY. #4 lost to Temple. Combined the four best teams in the ACC have 1 win over a ranked OOC opponent.

By your logic, the bottom of the ACC is better than the top of the ACC, and we should just abandon the tournament and hand UNC the trophy.

12:33... Or, is it that it's a lose-lose situation for Wake to play at W&M? if they win, it looks like just another non-conference win over a mid-to-low-major team, indistinguishable from a win over N'eastern or Fairfield, if they lose it's a MASSIVE loss.

Apissedant... You may be right that the 4 of MSU-OSU-Purdue-Wisconsin is better than the ACC's top 4, but the rest of the leagues' teams are incomparable. The big ten is ATROCIOUS outside of the top 6.

It amazes me that Washington is getting a free pass. They got 3rd in a very weak Pac-10. Their best wins are vs Texas A&M and Cal. They lost to Oregon, Swept by USC, lost to UCLA and lost to Texas Tech. When you compare them to Illinois or Minnesota it should be obvious that the latter 2 teams should be in before Washington.

We had Michigan State artificially high anticipating that they would advance far in the Big Ten tourney. Wisconsin should be seeded higher than MSU. They have a 6-4 record against top 50, while MSU is only 3-4.

Is UTEP at risk with that loss? Looking at their record, it's a lot shakier than I previously thought. Two wins over non-tourney UAB and that's it. Also a pretty low They romped C-USA for most of the season, but that's not saying much. Lost to the only teams close to the tournament they played (BYU / Ole Miss).

Interesting about UTEP... 2 top 50 wins, no wins over legitimate tourney teams, and 2 losses outside the top 100... Is that really a better resume than Va Tech, who has 1 more loss, but only 1 loss top not-top-100 teams, and has 3 top 50 wins, all of whom will be in the tourney?

In most years UTEP would probably get left out, their resume is non-existent. Unless things really break badly for them today (Illinois, URI, Minnesota, Mississippi State all win and Utah State losses) they should still make it. It's not unthinkable that they get left out.

If Purdue wins the Big 10 tourney, there's an argument for them to be a #1. Not sure that I would make that argument, but it can be made.

However, can you explain placing Duke over Syracuse in any scenario? Syracuse got beat in their conference tourney by a team that would probably win the ACC. I really don't think that's a stretch to say that. Even if you don't agree with that, even the biggest ACC homer would have to agree Georgetown would be now worse than 2nd in the ACC. Georgetown destroyed Duke when they played.

Duke, meanwhile, is about to get to their conference championship via UVA and Miami. Syracuse's losses are much better than Duke's losses. Syracuse has lost to RPIs 39, 7, and 16. Duke has a 100+ loss on their resume. Syracuse's wins are much better than Duke's wins (5 top 25 wins vs 1). Syracuse has less losses.

Purdue will be hard pressed to beat Minnesota much less win the Big Ten tournament. If they do manage that feat the least they could do is make Purdue a #1 seed. If Robbie Hummel was injured earlier in the year I think it'd be easier for Purdue to regroup.

That's relatively fair. Wake Forest and UNC especially are by far better than the comparable teams in the Big 10. It's actually kind of funny considering preseason the Big 10 was supposed to be a power house and was expected to get as many as 7 tournament spots.

B101 thanks for the insight on the BE final, does Gtown need to win to keep the 3, couldn't tell from your response or do they just need to avoid a blowout?

Also, Anonymous at 2:14 PM I agree that Syracuse is much better than Duke and has a better resume but they did lose two straight (neither a bad loss but still its a bad way to end the season) also Onawku's injury may through up some question marks to the committee also when is the last time was a team that won both the regular season and ACC tournament not awarded a 1 seed, I'm not saying that's a reason they should get it, but just a possible insight on the thinking of the selection committee. Also Duke RPI is 2 while Syracuse is 5 and Duke is #1 on Pomeroy (not sure the committee gives it any credit but thought I should throw it in their).

Of course all of that said I agree Syracuse should be ahead of Duke and I'm praying that Gtown is in Duke's bracket.

Anonymous 2:28, do you not know how to type your name? Good point though, I guess that's the most they can do. Still, winning the Big Ten tournament would be a major achievement by a shorthanded Purdue team.

So regardless of their profile you think Washington will be in over Minnesota and Illinois? Would this be because the chairman is the Pac-10 commish? Also B101 if URI gets blown out by temple are they officially out?

Not really seeing how VT gets left out without four bid-stealers. You can talk about their non-conference SOS all you want, but they played more than half of their games against the top-100 and went 9-7 in those games. If they get passed up for teams they finished ahead of in the ACC AND won the only head to head matchup (Clemson, Wake, GT) it would be the biggest hose job in the history of the 65 team field.

Apissedant... You may be right that the 4 of MSU-OSU-Purdue-Wisconsin is better than the ACC's top 4, but the rest of the leagues' teams are incomparable. The big ten is ATROCIOUS outside of the top 6.

Um, the 11th best (i.e. worst) Big Ten team won on the road at the ACC's 9th best team. That's not "incomparable".

That's great, how'd they finish behind BC (who lost to Harvard), UVA (who lost at home to Penn State, amongst others), NC State (who lost to Northwestern), etc.

I'll admit, the bottom of the ACC was probably a bit more consistently competitive than the B10, but don't give me this "by far better" BS. The best conference in the country this year top-to-bottom is the Big 12. Big East would have an argument if they trimmed some of the fat at the bottom.

No way Purdue maintains 2 seed. Minnesota is the better team coming into the tournament-Iverson's play of late is like a star being born. A second round match-up for a 1-3 seed vs Minn might spell upset.

If Mississippi State hangs on against Vandy, I wouldn't be surprised if the committee decided just to put them as a 12 seed in regardless to make their job easier. I know that the committee was open about not considering the Big 12's championship game when they had it on Sunday a few years back, which is why they moved it to Saturday.

I'm not as convinced Minnesota became great as I am convinced Purdue became terrible. Minnesota just got completely embarrassed by Michigan less than two weeks ago. MICHIGAN. How do you explain that with your comments?

Even still, Purdue played a half against Minnesota without Hummel, and lost to MSU in a not glamorous but not quite embarrassing loss. What just happened?

No, the ACC's total is largely swayed by the fact that their teams are alot better. The ACC's bottom four includes a 19-12 team, a 16-16 team, and two 15-16 teams. The Big 10's bottom four includes 3 teams that, combined, have 31 wins, and 63 losses.

Of those 6... Minnesota locks up a spot as long as they keep up a large margin vs purdue, washington is in no doubt, and VT is in, as a 10 win team in the ACC. That leaves 3 teams for 1 spot, which MSU could clinch tomorrow. If not, it's florida. Sorry Illinois, next year, try and win more than 7 ballgames against even OK competition.

Sometimes you just have a bad day. Wisconsin had a bad day yesterday with bad shooting. Purdue is having that day today. Purdue beat Minnesota in Minneapolis not long ago, just like Wisconsin beat Illinois in Champaign last weekend. Both those games meant more to the winners than these games meant this weekend. Not really a big surprise. PU will get dropped for the Hummell injury, but after this one got away in teh first half what did it matter to PU anymore? They'll be fine, just like Wisconsin will. Illinois and Minnesota will be fortunate to win a game if they make the tournament.

Anonymous at 6:02, and yet VT managed to lose to both Iowa and Penn St...

Actually, this year, for a change, they decided to start awarding the game to whichever team had MORE points. In this case, Virginia tech had 70 to Iowa's 64, and then Outscored penn st 66-64. So I think, I THINK, that those count as wins.

BCS teams? Virginia Tech won 3 GAMES, 3 GAMES vs decent teams in the ACC if you call GT & Wake who barely made it in DECENT. Your RPI can't be in the 50s at 10-7 in conference if you won games vs the better part of the ACC.

I don't see how anyone could say VT's or Florida's resume is better than the other. If it's down to those 2 teams for the final spot it might come down to a 5-5 vote by the committee. The edge might go to VT just because the ACC has a representative on the committee (Wake's AD).

why is va tech even being debated? 10-6 in the #1 conference gets a bid even if the OOC was full of 300+ teams. also, stop comparing va tech to penn st last year. va tech's rpi is 34. penn st's rpi last year was 58. give it a rest.

Exactly, Derek. Nantz is too busy thinking about The Masters. Minnesota locked up a bid last night if you ask me. Today was just further proof about Tubby Smith's coaching job. This team reinvented itself as many times as Madonna has.

That is a very valid point about Virginia Tech. Their computer numbers are a lot like the 2009 Nittany Lions. The Hokies might be left out in favor of a team that played a tougher OOC schedule. Maybe VT will schedule tougher teams next year.

Noles,That is deceiving because VT only had to play Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Wake, and FSU only once. Florida had to play Tennessee, Vandy and UK twice. The unbalanced conference schedules can skew the conference records.

I agree with you but the edge for VT because of UF's extra 4 losses is very minimal. VT would be projected to lose 3 of 4 if they played 2 vs UK, 1 vs UT, 1 vs Vandy, so I would give them a small, but very small edge.

I just don't like the fact that they did nothing OOC & the committee has made a point of saying that's important. Then they got the scheduling of more weak teams in the ACC.

I don't agree Miss St. should be in over Florida just yet either for the same reasons & they have 4 sub 100 losses including Rider at home.

Who keeps saying the ACC is #1? They are #3 in Sagarin & RPI the best indicators.

Valid points and true however Illinois doesnt have as many "good wins" Gophs have beaten MSU, PU, Illinois, Butler, Wisconsin and OSU. I think people are over exaggerating the Portland loss. They were 3rd(?) in the WCC and beat St Marys. I also think the NW loss is that bad, a couple points @ NW. The other 3 are bad loses lol

"Are you really saying Georgia is a bad loss? Vanderbilt and Illinois also lost to Georgia.. Florida played a very strong non conference schedule.

RichmondMichigan StateXavierSyracuseFlorida State

Florida's SOS is 100 points better than Virginia Tech, but you say their schedules are comparable??"

If Georgia's not a bad loss then neither are VT's losses to UNC, Miami, and BC. All are extremely similar to UGA. UNC beat MSU, OSU, and won @Wake so that must mean they're a great team!

Yes Florida played a tough non-conf schedule but ZERO of those 5 games you mentioned were on the road (4 of them were at home or in Florida, with the other in AC) and UF only won 2 of those 5 games. You don't get credit for losing to good teams.

I never said UF's and VT's schedules were comparable, UF's was clearly better but VT had a much better record so it offsets.

Both teams racked up wins against sub-100 teams. VT was 15-1 against sub-100 teams and UF was 13-2 against sub-100 teams.

The only reason UF's SOS is 100 points higher is because of those 5 games you mentioned, and only getting 2 wins against those 5 isn't all that impressive.

I find it hard to believe that VT wouldn't have won at least 2 of those 5 games if 4 of the 5 were in Virginia.

The ACC is not the best conference in the country. Not even close. It is one good team (Duke), two decent teams (Maryland and GT), and then a bunch of average or sub par teams. All the ACC teams are going to flame out in the NCAA tourney.

pomeroy ranks the acc #1. the reason why it is ranked so highly is because it doesn't have any bad teams. if you swapped out 2 of its bottom feeders and replaced them with depaul, rutgers, iowa or indiana, it wouldn't be ranked #1. the top of the acc is very underwhelming but the middle is gigantic.

Winning 2 out of 5 from:RichmondMichigan StateXavierSyracuseFlorida State

is decent. It's not great and not bad. VT didn't give themselves a chance to do such, so how can we know how they would do. VT did just about the same as UF on the road/neutral courts(slight edge to UF).

No one can blame the committee if they choose 1 over the other. If anything, MSU should be the 1 still needing the win tomorrow. They have 4 crappy losses & a bad OOC as well.

pomeroy also ranks the ACC #1 because of beating down on bad teams, thus the differential between Sagarin & RPI. Sagarin factors in both methods moreso, so it's probably the best indicator. the ACC is #3

Is there any case to be made for Cal getting in the tournament? They're 1-6 versus the RPI Top 50 with their only good win being against UW at home. They have no good road wins, and their overall profile seems worse than Minnesota (more RPI Top 50 victories in the conference tournament than Cal has all year), UF (3-8 versus RPI Top 50 with a win versus a Top 15 RPI in Tennessee), and Virginia Tech (3-4 versus RPI Top 50 & an RPI Top 50 win at Georgia Tech). In a head to head comparison I can't see California being better than many of the bubble teams.

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