How Long Do Hard Drives Really Last?

February 12, 2014 Published by Rajesh Goel

100% of all hard drives will eventually fail. This is a fact. Some will fail prematurely due to manufacturers’ defects while others will fail because a mechanical part finally wears out. The question is, how long until that happens?

Online backup provider Backblaze.com has kept 25,000 consumer-grade hard drives constantly running for the last 4 years, diligently noting whenever a hard drive breaks down. The results are very interesting.

92% of all hard drives will survive the first 18 months. These failures are typically due to manufacturers’ defects (oftentimes called the “lemon effect”). Hard drives’ warranties are typically 1 to 3 years, which is basically the manufacturers saying that they are only on the hook to replace the lemons.

During the next 18 months, only a very small percentage of drives (~2%) will fail. These failures are from random “unlucky” issues and occur rarely anytime during the life of the drive.

Beginning in year 3, hard drives start to wear out due to usage. They are simply mechanical devices that are getting old. 80% of drives will make it to year 4 and then they drop off at about 12% or more per year thereafter.

As illustrated in the graphic, the failure rate is essentially a U curve with most failures very early on or after the 3-year mark.

So, What Does This Mean?

Simple. Back up your data. With a 1-in-10 chance that your hard drive dies in the first 3 years of its life and an accelerating chance of failure after that, there is no excuse for being caught without a solid backup. Ever.

Make a plan. Build equipment replacement into your budget at least every 4 years for most devices, with a 10% equipment-replacement expense built in over the 1st year and then again starting in year 3.

As for that 10-year-old PC in the back room still running Windows XP and your most critical reporting software, the clock is ticking …

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