What a National Power Cut Tells Us About Pakistan

People worked at an office in Lahore during a nationwide power cut, Pakistan, Feb, 25.

A technical fault at a major power plant in the Pakistani province of Baluchistan deprived most of the country of electricity late Sunday night.

Localized power cuts and load-shedding are common in Pakistan but nationwide outages rare and the latest incident is likely to focus attention – and criticism – on the government’s handling of an energy crisis. It comes at an inopportune time for the government, which is preparing for elections later this year.

Advertisement

The breakdown at the Uch power plant in Baluchistan – the country’s second-biggest generator – had a domino effect that cut of power to much of the country. The major cities of Islamabad, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Multan, Peshawar and Quetta, and 70% of Karachi were without power starting at around 11 p.m. Sunday.

By Monday morning, power had been restored in the major cities, but rural areas in the provinces of Sindh, Baluchistan and the interior of Punjab remained without power Tuesday morning, according to sources in the Ministry for Water and Power. Even in areas where power has been restored, the system remains strained and people endured hours of load-shedding Monday.

Pakistan’s power system generates between 8,000 and 8,500 Megawatts daily, far short of demand of 13,000 MW or higher. To manage the system deficit, most parts of the country are forced to adapt their daily routine around scheduled load shedding for around four hours daily.

The load shedding schedule is set and managed based on the requirements of individual power plants. There is no national system in place to safeguard against a nationwide blackout like Sunday’s, said an official at the water and power ministry.

The power system in Pakistan suffers from years of underinvestment and mismanagement. “What should be a technical problem to address has escalated into a governance crisis,” said Adil Najam, vice chancellor of the Lahore University of Management Sciences and a leading Pakistani expert on environment and development policy. The Prime Minister’s office couldn’t be reached for comment.

A web of more than 20 different provincial and federal entities are involved in powering Pakistan. This has created an energy sector short on long-term integrated planning, said Mr. Najam.

The tariffs for consumers, which are set by government regulators, are also insufficient to cover production costs. This has led to a financial squeeze and investment in the sector is weak, while overall demand for power has grown. Adding to consumers’ frustration is the fact that 4,000 MW of generating capacity currently lies idle due to a lack of fuel.

The ruling Pakistan People’s Party government is pushing ahead with a gas pipeline deal with Iran that it says will address Pakistan’s energy crisis. However, the deal is being widely viewed by analysts as a pre-election stunt more focused on placating accusations that the PPP is pro-U.S. at a time when anti-U.S. sentiment is high.

If the deal goes through, the pipeline would initially import 750 million cubic feet of natural gas per day and support approximately 4,000 MW of daily power generation, according to Pakistan government estimates.

Iranian and Pakistani officials claim gas will begin flowing between the two countries in 15 months. Fawad Khan, a senior energy analyst at KASB Securities, a Karachi-based brokerage, says his best estimate puts the pipeline’s completion at least two years away.

The main opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League–Narwaz, and Imran Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, are both campaigning on an energy strategy focused on developing the Thar Coalfields in Sindh, the world’s sixth-largest coal deposit. The reserves were discovered 22 years ago but plans to develop the coalfields have been stuck in limbo because of disagreements between the Sindh and federal governments.

For any candidate to campaign on the promise of quick fixes to the energy crisis is to ignore the reality of Pakistan’s political system, says Hasan Askari Rizvi, a political analyst in Pakistan. “It is an attractive slogan,” says Mr. Rizvi, “But it is overly ambitious and unrealistic.”

Many energy analysts point to addressing infrastructure-related inefficiencies as the quickest and easiest solution to Pakistan’s energy crisis; just addressing power lost on the grid could boost supply by 15% to 40% they told India Real Time.

Of course, power cuts are hardly exclusive to Pakistan in the region. In July, northern India suffered from a huge power blackout covering states that are home to about half of the nation’s population. As in Pakistan, India’s power system is under huge strain as rapidly growing demand outstrips supply.

Since the blackout last year, the Indian government says it has put safeguards in place to prevent a repeat. In Pakistan, the Prime Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf has ordered an inquiry into Sunday’s blackout, a move analysts described as routine.

“The PPP will try to deflect pressure by focusing on other things as the elections approach,” said Mr. Rizvi, the analyst. “They will likely blame a technical fault but the energy crisis will haunt them in the elections.”

About India Real Time

India Real Time offers analysis and insights into the broad range of developments in business, markets, the economy, politics, culture, sports, and entertainment that take place every single day in the world’s largest democracy. Regular posts from Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires reporters around the country provide a unique take on the main stories in the news, shed light on what else mattered and why, and give global readers a snapshot of what Indians have been talking about all week. You can contact the editors at indiarealtime(at)wsj(dot)com.