Half of Page-1 Google Results Are Now&nbspHTTPS

Just over 9 months ago, I wrote that 30% of page-1 Google results in our 10,000-keyword tracking set were secure (HTTPS). As of earlier this week, that number topped 50%:

While there haven't been any big jumps recently – suggesting this change is due to steady adoption of HTTPS and not a major algorithm update – the end result of a year of small changes is dramatic. More and more Google results are secure.

MozCast is, of course, just one data set, so I asked the folks at Rank Ranger, who operate a similar (but entirely different) tracking system, if they thought I was crazy...

Could we both be crazy? Absolutely. However, we operate completely independent systems with no shared data, so I think the consistency in these numbers suggests that we're not wildly off.

What about the future?

Projecting the fairly stable trend line forward, the data suggests that HTTPS could hit about 65% of page-1 results by the end of 2017. The trend line is, of course, an educated guess at best, and many events could change the adoption rate of HTTPS pages.

I've speculated previously that, as the adoption rate increased, Google would have more freedom to bump up the algorithmic (i.e. ranking) boost for HTTPS pages. I asked Gary Illyes if such a plan was in the works, and he said "no":

As with any Google statement, some of you will take this as gospel truth and some will take it as devilish lies. While he isn't promising that Google will never boost the ranking benefits of HTTPS, I believe Gary on this one. I think Google is happy with the current adoption rate and wary of the collateral damage that an aggressive HTTPS ranking boost (or penalty) could cause. It makes sense that they would bide their time..

Who hasn't converted?

One of the reasons Google may be proceeding with caution on another HTTPS boost (or penalty) is that not all of the big players have made the switch. Here are the Top 20 subdomains in the MozCast dataset, along with the percentage of ranking URLs that use HTTPS:

Of the Top 20, exactly half have switched to HTTPS, although most of the Top 10 have converted. Not surprisingly, switching is, with only minor exceptions, nearly all-or-none. Most sites naturally opt for a site-wide switch, at least after initial testing.

What should you do?

Even if Google doesn't turn up the reward or penalty for HTTPS, other changes are in play, such as Chrome warning visitors about non-secure pages when those pages collect sensitive data. As the adoption rate increases, you can expect pressure to switch to increase.

For new sites, I'd recommend jumping in as soon as possible. Security certificates are inexpensive these days (some are free), and the risks are low. For existing sites, it's a lot tougher. Any site-wide change carries risks, and there have certainly been a few horror stories this past year. At minimum, make sure to secure pages that collect sensitive information or process transactions, and keep your eyes open for more changes.

The migration has been pretty gradual. We saw a big bump up over a year ago when Wikipedia went HTTPS, because they have such a huge footprint. There's been a very steady progression of sites switching, though. That trend line has looked roughly the same for well over two years.

In my opinion the trend shows mainly the number of well ranked pages that are progressively incorporating https in their webs, so this data would be very interesting. Is there any way to know about it?

Another option would be to consider https could be be better for seo than http and they rank above, but I suspect you are right and the migration is the main factor for this trend.

We switched all of Investing.com's 30 subdomains to HTTPS exactly 3 months ago.

Comparing to the domain migration that was quite a nightmare from a rankings perspective 4.5 years ago, this switch was smooth and quick. We've been thinking about migrating to HTTPS for the past couple of years, but it was only this article on TechCrunch about a Chrome notification for HTTP domains that actually made us go ahead and do it.

Of course, there's some work involved, and there are quite many things to make sure that are in place. But it's very doable, and I don't see a reason to stay with HTTP in 2017. Even if only from a branding point of view.

Yeah, I think we're going to see other pressures, like browser warnings, increase, even if Google doesn't turn up the algorithmic volume. A browser warning can be a serious deterrent for your average web user/shopper.

Earlier it was thought that only e-commerce or websites with any kind of transactions should have SSL. This has changed in last couple of years, and it seems that google wants every website to show that they are secure.protected. The cost of SSL has also gone down from where it has originally started, this is also helping people conscious about this fact to convert to SSL.

In my opinion https can affect seo someway. When we changed to https our ranking increased for many keywords in the following days. I do not if it affects directly or indirectly but it can be something to consider.

It's quite interesting, many sites have changed to HTTPS when Google announced that it could be ranking signal. One more thing I noticed that those who have not changed to HTTPS from above list, have high-end Ad sense included throughout the site, including Target.com. It's wired but could it be the reason that still they have not changed to HTTPS

Interesting data. What is amazing is how well behaved the trends are. Your article from July 5 last year about HTTPS reaching 30% last predicted 16 months until the 50% threshold was crossed. We appear to be a bit ahead of schedule. In that article you stated "If rewarding HTTPS too heavily when adoption is low is risky and rewarding it when adoption is too high is pointless, then, naturally, the perfect time to strike is somewhere in the middle. At 30% adoption, we're starting to edge into that middle territory. When adoption hits something like 50–60%, I suspect it will make sense for Google to turn up the algorithmic volume on HTTPS.".

Do you still feel it makes sense for Google to change their algorithm now?

Google says they have no plans to, and the justification seems pretty simple -- adoption is continuing smoothly without them adding pressure. So, at least for now, it looks like my prediction was wrong. We probably won't see an HTTPS algorithm boost this year.

It gets a little more complicated, because we are seeing other sorts of pressures, such as non-secure page warnings in chrome. We're probably going to see more of that kind of thing. That can effect the performance of your site (including bottom-line metrics) but shouldn't impact ranking.

More and more of my clients are doing this - one did so yesterday, in fact. For anyone who's redesigning, migrating, changing CMS, etc. then it's a no-brainer to go HTTPS while you're going through that process anyway.

Wonderful information and good article. Webmasters should consider using https very soon as it is the means to get better ranking in Google in the near future as compared to normal http sites which are considered less secure. The most important drawback is that, Google considers your site as a new fresh website whenever you migrate to https and this can lead to loss of traffic and ranking at least for a month or two, before regaining your original state. Another drawback is the site speed which degrades when you switch to https from http, this can be a major factor for the decrease in your site ranking. Another most important factor is that, Google re-indexes your whole site, hence you slowly regain your keywords, which takes time, almost two to three months, just like a new website, which takes almost six months to rank for competitive keywords. These drawbacks drive fear in most webmasters and hence have them thinks hundred of times before switching to https, and this is why there is very less increase in site migration from http to https.

Very interesting stats. However for a website say of a freelancer or just an information website which does not collect any sensitive information, in some cases such websites do not even collect email ids, I think it is not really required. Second question is of the cost - in many cases the total cost of the dedicated ip and the security certificate (Domain validation only) is more than the cost of the shared hosting

Yes Thomas but Cloudflare does not provide CDN for a site that is altready SSL secured. They insist on you subscribing for their yearly certificate which for me was redundant since I already had one. Any suggestions

I certainly wouldn't rush to HTTPS for that kind of site, especially if significant time/cost are involved. On the other hand, I think it's going to get cheaper and easier, to the point that it's just a simple add-on when you host a site. That's already starting to happen. We're seeing a lot of <$10/year options, and we're going to see more free options in the next year, I suspect.

Interesting stats , Peter. Just the other day I quoted your previous stat on HTTPS adoption- taking secured page 1 results at 30%. Didn't realise that months is a pretty long time in SEO!

However, I am surprised to see laggard adoption of HTTPS by healthcare industry, especially hospitals. Despite lot of sensitive information being uploaded in public domain on healthcare websites, the adoption is all but disheartening.

Dear Peter,I have a web store. Our bank and the card industries expect the safety and security policy because safety payment. Also expected the PCI DSS Compliance and TSL or SSL. So, It not matter for Google? It is incredible! The customers like me who like to use the systems and websites where my details are safety and I can use my cards safety too...

i agree with this statement, because https is more trusted than http. For example with my site when i try to cek in google sandbox without https the status is Penalized or Sandboxed, but when i cek using https the status is OK. So i think https is one of factor that make a website become trusted by google. Until now, i don't know why the result using https and without https is show the different result.

I think it's time to move on to new developments with HTTPS system will all be a better experience in google serp. From experience I have done so far after changing to HTTPS system directly effect can be felt on trafict changes in serp

Informative post, but with my personal experience I have seen a mixed results. Even the websites that were ranking previously without https are still there. What I basically find that https is strictly require for website collecting sensitive data and I was getting the warning for few of my client's website in Google Webmaster too for this.

Legit study Dr. Meyers! In my mind, this definitely confirms that HTTPS is a firm Google ranking factor and well-worth transiting to (if you are still on HTTP), and is going to be best practice for all new websites moving forward. Thanks for sharing the awesome charts and data on this!

Recently I have been thinking about the effects of SSL Certificates and have certainly seen an increase of improvements to client sites who have opted for HTTPS. I also didn't realise that it was growing this rapidly.

Because online security hacks are becoming more intelligent these days it's definitely important to provide customers with this extra security to give an overall peace of mind.

I think because the security certificates are inexpensive/ free we will eventually see all if not most websites opting for a HTTPS site, after all it does make sense.

Industry specific, it's not that high for real estate but Zillow is always up there at the top with it's HTTPS adaptation.We have noticed that our real estate plugin customers for IDX Realty Pro who have gone to HTTPS are getting a small bump in almost all tracked key words less than a few days after implementing. Most real estate websites are not SSL but they should be because they capture sensitive information. Also, if they want to compete locally with Zillow it's pretty much a necessity.

Thank you for the info about secure pages in search rankings Dr. Meyers. I think that it makes sense that Google would start to favor secure pages because it's all about the user experience. And the safer the user feels on your site, the better experience they are going to have with it.

This is very good information thank you very much for this. I have noticed this as well to be honest and have been putting all of the sites that we manage to HTTPS, but I didn't think that it was growing this rapidly.

I recently switched to https and the truth is I do not think I have improved my ranking, although it is true that my site is safer for my users and also gives them more confidence to navigate, but also does not increase conversions. Time will tell if https in addition to security provides other advantages but is recommended 100%.

Interesting how almost 50% of page 1 is https... while the trend is going up it makes sense about the MAJOR change and how it can effect a huge "major players" company that has not made the switch. Thanks!