Archives for August 2017

“The U.S. Army detail assigned to Vice President Mike Pence’s communications team has been removed from White House duties after being caught on video bringing women back to their hotel in Colombia,” NBC News reports.

“The soldiers — who were senior members of the service, according to one of the officials — were brought back to the United States and removed from the White House detail once the allegations surfaced… There is no indication at this point that the women with the U.S. Army soldiers were prostitutes.”

Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) told WGAN that Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) would probably lose a Republican primary in the state if she decides to run for governor.

Said LePage: “I will say this right away. I do firmly believe deep down in my heart that Susan Collins, in order to become the governor of the state of Maine, will have to run as an independent, and she’s highly unlikely to win a Republican primary.”

However, he added that if she did make it through a Republican primary and got to the general election, “she wins.”

“Republican congressional leaders don’t expect to release a joint tax plan with the White House next month, and they’ll rely instead on House and Senate tax-writing committees to solve the big tax questions that remain unanswered,” Bloomberg reports.

“National Economic Council Gary Cohn had said previously that a tax framework would be released after Labor Day. More recently, he indicated the White House was pushing tax efforts back to the hill.”

Playbook: “Since Republicans took the House majority in 2010, the debt ceiling has been lifted eight times. It’s a bit easier in the Senate than the House, so let’s focus on the House. Most of the time, the majority of House Republicans don’t vote to lift the cap. For example, in 2015, 167 House Republicans voted no, and just 79 voted yes. In 2014, 28 voted yes and 199 voted no. House Republicans twice were able to muster big numbers: in 2012, 199 Republicans voted yes and 33 voted no when Congress promised to withhold pay from lawmakers should they not pass a budget. In 2011, 174 House Republicans voted yes and 66 voted no on the Budget Control Act, a piece of legislation that set up steep budget cuts — the sequester — which President Trump has said he would like to reverse.”

“This is a defining issue for Republicans. In recent years, Republicans have eased up on their demands on the debt limit because Barack Obama took a somewhat firm stance that he was not going to negotiate. But when Republicans came into the majority in 2010, John Boehner said Republicans should cut a dollar of spending for each dollar of a debt ceiling hike. Since then, there have been pitched battles over lifting the cap.”

“Right now, Republicans are in a really, really bad spot. They have no plan, nothing on the horizon and very little time to get this done. They have president who is frustrated with Congress and distancing himself from GOP leaders.”

Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) said that President Trump is inviting a primary challenge in 2020 with his style of governing, CNN reports.

Said Flake: “I think he could govern in a way that he wouldn’t. But, I think that the way that — the direction he’s headed right now, just kinda drilling down on the base rather than trying to expand the base — I think he’s inviting one.”

Matt Bai: “The current thinking goes, the administration seems to be in the hands of strong and serious-minded patriots who can fill in a map without help… But even if these guys can keep Trump’s presidency from immediately derailing, that doesn’t mean they’re likely to steer it in the right direction.”

“When it comes to addressing the country’s problems and divisions in a thoughtful way, though, the only guy who can do that is the president himself, and I don’t see it happening, no matter how many square-jawed warriors surround him or how many slogans they latch onto. Trump’s the principal, and that’s the reality.”

“A federal judge blocked Texas from enforcing its revamped voter identification law on Wednesday, ruling that the State Legislature’s attempt to loosen the law did not go far enough and perpetuated discrimination against black and Hispanic voters,” the New York Times reports.

“The decision was only the latest chapter in a yearslong court battle over the state’s voter ID rules, and comes amid concerted efforts by the Trump administration to enact tougher voting restrictions. The stakes are particularly high for Texas: As a result of previous court rulings, the state could be forced to undergo federal oversight of its election procedures.”

Rick Hasen: “Ultimately this case is heading to the Supreme Court. What kind of reception it gets there will likely depend upon (1) whether Justice Kennedy is still on the Court and (2) how Justice Kennedy, if still on the Court, views the evidence of intentional discrimination in this case.”

“In the wake of the violence in Charlottesville, The Atlantic reached out to 146 Republican state party chairs and national committee members for reaction to Trump’s handling of the events. We asked each official two questions: Are you satisfied with the president’s response? And do you approve of his comment that there were ‘some very fine people’ who marched alongside the Ku Klux Klan and neo-Nazis?”

“The vast majority refused to comment on the record, or simply met the questions with silence. Of the 146 GOP officials contacted, just 22 offered full responses—and only seven expressed any kind of criticism or disagreement with Trump’s handling of the episode. The rest came to the president’s defense, either with statements of support or attempts at justification.”

President Trump slammed the Republican congressional leadership in Congress on Twitter this morning:

I requested that Mitch M & Paul R tie the Debt Ceiling legislation into the popular V.A. Bill (which just passed) for easy approval. They didn’t do it so now we have a big deal with Dems holding them up (as usual) on Debt Ceiling approval. Could have been so easy — now a mess!

Jonathan Swan: “Trump is pre-blaming Republican leaders, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan, for the debt ceiling headache that’s coming in September. And he’s piling on them at a moment when his relationships with Republicans on Capitol Hill are at an all-time low.”

First Read: “Maybe the biggest political story this August has been President Trump’s rapidly deteriorating relationship with congressional Republicans – all less than a month after the Senate failed to pass its health care effort.”

“When the 115th Congress returns to Washington on September 5, Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) will likely be absent: His federal corruption trial is set to begin here the following day,” the New York Times reports.

“But when the Senate moves to vote on major bills during the fall – including on the debt ceiling, his plan to overhaul the National Flood Insurance Program, even an unpredictable major foreign policy decision – Senator Menendez will be caught between his desire to remain in front of jurors and his congressional obligation to fight for his constituents.”

Key finding: The survey found that 71% of voters agreed his “behavior is not what I expect from a president” (27% disagreed), and 68% agreed his “words and actions could get us accidentally involved in an international conflict” (29% disagreed).

Also striking: Almost two-thirds (63%) of the registered voters polled said the country is on the wrong track, and a majority (56%) had an unfavorable view of President Trump (41% favorable).

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Right now we have four Toss-ups: two held by Republicans, and two held by Democrats. If one assumes a 50-50 split on the Toss-ups, and every other seat goes the way we currently rate it, there would be no net change in the Senate. Given the map, that would be a substantial Democratic accomplishment and a missed opportunity for Republicans. But the election’s a long way off and the potential exists for Republicans to make gains next year, too, even if the president’s approval rating doesn’t improve. That would be an unusual result historically, but history is merely a guide. It guarantees nothing, particularly on a Senate map where Democrats are stretched historically thin.”

“One final point: It is highly unusual that there have not been any retirements so far. Usually there are at least a couple of open seats, and typically more than that… This is just a guess, but there probably will be at least an open seat or two by the time we get to next fall. “

Mike Allen and Jonathan Swan: “Top White House and GOP leadership officials tell us the chances of a market-rattling government shutdown are rising by the day — and were even before Trump threatened at his raucous Phoenix rally on Tuesday night to use a shutdown as leverage to get funding for a border wall. Trump is dead serious about this fight, a senior administration source tells us, and the president’s talk is starting to spook markets.”

One top Republican source put the chance as high as 75%: “The peculiar part is that almost everyone I talk to on the Hill agrees that it is more likely than not.”

The Hill notes that “with just 12 legislative days scheduled for September –– and the spending debate complicated by a Sept. 29 deadline to raise the debt ceiling –– the Republicans have little room for error. And Trump’s prime-time shutdown threat poses yet another hurdle, forcing GOP leaders to find a legislative sweet-spot that satisfies the president’s border-wall demand without alienating the Democrats, whose votes will be essential to keep the government running.”

“Confronted with a West Wing that treated policymaking as a free-for-all, President Trump’s chief of staff John Kelly is instituting a system used by previous administrations to limit internal competition —and to make himself the last word on the material that crosses the president’s desk,” Politico reports.

“In a conference call last week, Kelly initiated a new policymaking process in which just he and one other aide — White House staff secretary Rob Porter, a little-known but highly regarded Rhodes Scholar who overlapped with Jared Kushner as an undergraduate at Harvard — will review all documents that cross the Resolute Desk.”

Bloomberg: Kelly may command the White House but he can’t control Trump.

President Trump continues to amp up the pressure on Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), “savaging the Arizona Republican on Twitter and holding a private meeting with several of his prospective primary opponents,” Politico reports.

“Before taking the stage in Phoenix on Tuesday evening for a campaign-style rally, the president huddled backstage with state Treasurer Jeff DeWit and former state GOP Chairman Robert Graham. Both are considering running against Flake, an outspoken critic of the president who recently published an anti-Trump book, Conscience of a Conservative.”

About Political Wire

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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