Mountain West Tournament Betting Preview

The Mountain West Conference Tournament features nine teams, with five of them in position to earn an NCAA berth. As a result, this year’s tournament should be a wide open affair. The contenders include top seed New Mexico, No. 2 Colorado State, No. 3 (and host) UNLV, No. 4 San Diego State and No. 5 Boise State. The Aztecs have had the most success in the tournament in recent years with four straight championship game appearances and two titles including last year.

First Round Pick: Air ForceAir Force had a surprising 8-8 finish in the conference, just two games behind UNLV’s 10-6 mark. They also played UNLV very tough, beating the Rebels by 15 on their home court and falling in overtime here back in January. UNLV was 7-1 SU on its home court in conference play, but covered just twice and won by more than 10 just twice, against bottom feeders Nevada and Wyoming. They lost their last home game to Fresno State and also struggled to beat Boise State in their next to last game, winning by just four. Air Force did have some poor efforts away from home this year, but Read more

It looks like Wyoming will have the services of forward Leonard Washington for tonight's Mountain West Tournament play-in game against Nevada. Earlier this week an MRI of his back came back negative. Of UW's last five games, Washington was a factor only once, netting 15 points and 13 rebounds in a 72-66 loss at Air Force. Against San Diego State and UNLV he didn't play and the Cowboys lost by 28 and 23. And in 31 minutes of action over his last two games, Washington netted only three points and UW lost by 11 at New Mexico and 22 in the regular season finale vs. Colorado State. Wyoming beat Nevada in both regular season meetings, 59-48 and 68-48. Washington popped for 16 points, 13 rebounds and 16 points, 12 rebounds. Read more

I guess this has become a mini-series. Arizona is now 5-12 ATS in Pac 12 play…2-0 vs. Washington State and 3-12 vs. everybody else. They were already set to sink from their lofty (and inexplicable) #11 ranking in the AP poll because of a loss earlier this week at USC. Will this kick them out of the top 20? Will Joe Lunardi finally drop them below a #4 seed in his Bracketology?

Before tonight’s loss, Kenpom had them at #19, Jeff Sagarin at #24. And, those were heavily influenced by the strong start Arizona had to its season. Since Pac 12 play began, they’ve been a continual disappointment. They now have SIX losses in league play. And, it’s not a great league. It’s a competitive league…but because of depth of #10-seed type teams not because of greatness.

College Basketball Betting: Road teams have had success in San Diego State-New Mexico series

The road side has been the play of late in the San Diego State-New Mexico series winning five off the last seven games outright. The trend goes back even further with road teams on a 14-3 ATS run. The betting markets aren’t buying it however with the Lobos bet up from -5 to -5.5/-6 for tonight's meeting. Through 57 Mountain West games this season, home teams have won 40 times (70.2%) straight up. It's the second highest rate behind the Missouri Valley at 71.2% (57-23). Also throw in the fact that in the first meeting, SDSU embarrassed UNM 55-34.

It’s late February, and there’s still two more full weeks of regular season action in college hoops before the madness truly begins. It’s too early to write about conference tournament betting strategies – I’ll save that for next week. But it’s not too late to write about the bevy of ‘dead’ teams that are populating the college hoops landscape right now; teams that are lethargically playing out the string of the regular season. Sometimes, the sharp move is to lay big points fading sorry teams.

Even bad teams have hope in November – the season is fresh and new; teammates aren’t sick and tired of each other or their coaches, and the nagging injuries haven’t started to pile up. And teams that get smacked around in non-conference play for two months get an opportunity to regroup against comparable competition when conference play begins in January.

But when things go south in conference play, it’s not easy for many of these squads to continue competing at the same level they were earlier in the season. By late February, the final few weeks of the regular season are a meat grinder for struggling Read more

College Basketball Gambling: Wyoming's Washington doubtful vs. San Diego State

According to Twitter, it looks like Wyoming's Leonard Washington (ankle) is doubtful for Tuesday's game against San Diego State. It's yet another key injury for the Cowboys who lost leading scorer Luke Martinez (suspended) back in late December. With Martinez, Wyoming started the season 8-1 ATS. But without him and since the start of Mountain West play, the Cowboys are only 4-8 ATS. Also note that forward Larry Nance Jr., who has gone five straight league games without scoring double-digits, has been nursing a bum wrist.

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@Ben_Fred - Shyatt said Leonard Washington still has swelling and pain in left ankle. Won't play unless there's a "miraculous recovery."

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet college basketball in February

I’ve done my last two columns breaking down aggregate season long stats, examining the very best and very worst pointspread teams in all of college basketball. Next week, the focus shifts towards conference tournaments and the Big Dance. In between? This little doozy about how to make money betting NCAA hoops in the always tricky month of February!

The key to late regular season college hoops for me has always been about morphing teams – squads whose long term numbers don’t match their short term momentum – either positive or negative. There are quite literally dozens of such teams right now, all of whom are at least moderately mispriced in the betting markets these days, offering savvy bettors solid opportunities on a near daily basis.

Who are some of these teams? Why are they morphing now? Read on to find out!

I’ll start with a handful of teams moving in the right direction – from mediocre to good, or from good to great. Georgetown certainly stands out on this list; a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread in their last seven contests. The Hoyas were never a bad team, but a 2-3 SU start in Read more

Last week, I took a look at the best pointspread teams in all of college basketball, with the goal of assessing which teams were most likely to continue their ATS success down the stretch. This week, I’m taking the opposite approach; examining the very worst pointspread teams in college basketball. Why are they so bad against the spread? Will they continue to be overvalued as February rolls into March? Let’s find out!

The single worst pointspread team in all of college basketball this year has been IUPUI (Indiana-Purdue, Indianapolis); the type of team that only wiseguys bet on or against on a regular basis. At 5-17 ATS, no team in all of college basketball has suffered more pointspread defeats than the Jaguars this year. The Jaguars play in the Summit League, on the added board in college hoops – exclusive territory for sharps.

IUPUI has virtually no homecourt edge, covering just a single pointspread at home all year. They’ve been besieged with injuries and attrition; Read more

College Basketball Handicapping: Close games in the Big East, blowouts in the SEC

Here are a few conference-only statistics from Ken Pom that break down home courts (SU), close games (4 points or less and/or OT), and blowouts (19 points or more). There are 33 conferences if you include independent. Below are the top 10 conferences and rank. In terms of home court, the ACC has been the strongest at 30-11 SU. The Missouri Valley Conference is also north of 70%. The Big East has had the highest percentage of close game at 30.9% with the A-10 not far behind at 27.3%. Interesting that despite its slow pace (63.4 possessions per game) and low scoring affairs, only six of 46 Big Ten conference games have been decided by four points or less or went to overtime. When it comes to blowouts, the SEC is top dog with 25% of its games decided by 19 points or more – in large part because of Florida who has five of the 11.

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