Tuesday, May 21, 2019

European voters by 2 to 1 believe EU going in wrong direction

The European Council on Foreign Relations’ European Parliament election eve survey found residents by a 2 to 1 majority believe the EU is going in the wrong direction.

Despite the ECFR describing itself as a forum to “build coalitions for change at the European level and promote informed debate about Europe’s role in the world,” its latest polling of 27 EU member states found that a 54 percent to 31 percent majority of residents believe the European Union could collapse in the next 10 to 20 years.

To intentionally add a positive spin for more support for the European Union, the ECFR surveyed residents age 15 years and older, although the EU minimum voting age is generally 18 years. The ECFR also used the young people's stated 60 percent intention to vote in the EU elections, regardless of youth tending to vote at a much lower percentage rates than the 45 percent expected for 35 years and older voters.

The Council was able to find that two-thirds of EU voters believe that “EU membership has been positive for my country,” versus 28 percent of all EU voters that now see a war between EU member states as a realistic possibility, including the almost 50 percent of young voters ages 18-24 in a number of countries.

ECFR found that among the 187 million eligible to vote for 751-seat Parliament seats, the half still believe in the “power of facts and cooperation” are expected to vote for the pro-European parties. But the other half of voters in the anti-European parties see the “dynamics of peacebuilding and reconciliation that characterized the EU in its early years have been replaced by those of continuous conflict.”

The biggest three issues for the pro-European party voters are Islamic Radicals at 21 percent; Nationalism at 20 percent; and the Economy at 14 percent. The three biggest issues for the anti-European party voters are Islamic Radicals and Migration both at 26 percent; and the Economy at 12 percent.

The biggest shock in the run-up to Thursday voting has been the meteoric rise of the British Eurosceptic Brexit Party. December polls predicted that the Labout Party would get 29 percent of the vote, to 28 percent for the Conservative Party. But after the Brexit Partry was founded in January, the latest polls predict Brexit Party will win 32 percent of the vote, versus 20 percent for Labout and just 11 percent for Conservatives.

The rebellion against parties seems to be spreading across Europe, with 69 percent of pro-European party members being “tempted” to vote for another party and 58 percent of anti-European party members being “tempted” to vote for another party.

The pro-European parties must be more concerned about the anti-European parties storming to a hjistoric victory this week after Incumbent Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal-National Coalition defied exit polls to capture an upset victory over the Labor Party, which had promised EU-type policies in favor of global trade, open borders, and “aggressive government measures to combat climate change and intervene in the economy,” according to Geopolitical Futures.