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Poll shows movement in congressional races

A new poll shows one of the congressional races in New Hampshire is widening while the other remains tight.

The latest WMUR Granite State Poll shows that Democrat Carol Shea-Porter is leading Republican U.S. Rep. Frank Guinta 46 to 35 percent, with 18 percent still undecided. The race is much closer in the 2nd Congressional District, with Democrat Annie Kuster leading Republican U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass 36 to 34 percent -- a statistical dead heat.

The poll was conducted by the UNH Survey Center by landline and cellphone from Sept. 27-30. A subsample of 273 likely 1st District voters has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.9 percentage points, while a subsample of 325 likely 2nd District voters has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.4 percentage points.

Shea-Porter's favorability numbers remain positive at a net favorability of plus-14 percent, down from plus-21 percent in August. Guinta is now slightly underwater, with his unfavorable ratings up 11 points since August, putting him at a net favorability of minus-1 percent.

"The key thing about this race is that there's a high percentage of people who haven't made up their minds yet," said pollster Andy Smith. "Congressional races tend to move around a lot because people don't know who the candidates are, and they're voting for the R or the D after the name, and that means it's a turnout race."

The 2nd District race has shifted slightly. In August, Bass was in the lead by 5 points.

"This one's really up for grabs," Smith said. "I anticipate seeing a lot of money dumped into this campaign by both Republicans and Democrats. I expect it will get very, very nasty before it's over."

Kuster is becoming better known in the district and now has a net favorability of plus-10 percent. Views of Bass have turned negative, with 43 percent now seeing him unfavorably for a net favorability of minus-8 percent.

Smith said both races will be heavily influenced by support for the presidential candidates.

"Turnout statewide is probably going to be the biggest factor in determining who wins this race, which is a terrible spot to be in if you're a congressional candidate," Smith said. "These things are out of your hands. You're dependent on what happens at the top of the ticket."

Republicans on Wednesday touted an internal poll that shows Guinta up 8 points in the 1st District. Smith said different methods of polling can come up with different results, depending on how the questions are asked and who is asked the questions.

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