Wind Energy Has The Potential To Provide 30% Of Europe’s Power By 2030

Wind energy has the potential to provide up to 30% of Europe’s power by 2030 according to figures released by WindEurope in its Outlook to 2020 and Scenarios for 2030 reports. According to WindEurope’s projections, Europe could be on course for an average installation rate of 12.6 GW per year in the years up to 2020. This would take Europe to a total of 204 GW by 2020. By this date wind would be Europe’s largest renewable energy source, surpassing hydro and providing 16.5% of Europe’s electricity demand. However, this growth is likely to be concentrated in just six countries (Germany, UK, France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium), with Central and Eastern Europe lagging well behind.

The Scenarios for 2030 report illustrates that wind energy still has enormous growth potential. It shows that wind could provide 30% of Europe’s power by 2030 and reach a total of 323 GW. This would also include the repowering or life-extension of the roughly half of the EU’s existing wind capacity that is going to reach the end of its operational life before 2030. Reaching this milestone will be possible if the right policies are in place and significant changes to the energy system are made. This includes greater certainty on long-term revenue stability; significant progress on the system integration of variable renewables including build-out of the grid and interconnectors; and clear policy commitments on electrification.

Germany, France and the UK would have the most installed capacity, with 85 GW, 43 GW and 38 GW respectively. France would leapfrog the UK and Spain to second place thanks to the policies being put in place by the new government. Meanwhile, Denmark, Ireland, Estonia and the Netherlands would form an exclusive club of countries sourcing more than 50% of their electricity from wind by 2030.

This growth would mean 382 million tonnes of avoided CO2 emissions annually and unlock €239bn in investment from 2017-2030, enabling the wind industry to support 569,000 European jobs by 2030. It would also avoid the import of €13.2bn worth of fossil fuels per annum.

WindEurope CEO, Giles Dickson, said: “Wind energy is now firmly established as the cheapest form of new power generation. But the outlook from 2020 is uncertain. The industry needs binding and ambitious National Energy & Climate Action Plans that provide clarity on post-2020 volumes, which will allow cost reductions to continue. This requires a good outcome on the EU Clean Energy Package. With an ambitious European renewables target of at least 35% by 2030, the wind industry could deliver even bigger volumes at a competitive cost.”

European lawmakers have called for a renewable energy target of 35% for 2030 – rather than the 27% which the European Commission proposed in 2016. The MEPs have now backed measures substantially raising the European Union’s clean-energy ambitions. By 2030, more than one-third of energy consumed in the EU should be from renewable sources such as wind and solar power. The measures are intended to help cut carbon dioxide emissions. The EU is the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China and the United States, releasing about 10% of global emissions.

World clean energy investment totalled $333.5 billion last year, up 3% from 2016 and the second highest annual figure ever, taking cumulative investment since 2010 to $2.5 trillion. An extraordinary boom in photovoltaic installations made 2017 a record year for China’s investment in clean energy. This outpaced changes elsewhere, including jumps in investment in Australia and Mexico, and declines in Japan, the U.K. and Germany. The figures up 3% from a revised $324.6 billion in 2016, and only 7% short of the record figure of $360.3 billion, in 2015.

According to the latest issue of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) “Electric Power Monthly” report, U.S. electrical generation from renewable energy sources (i.e., biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar – inc. distributed solar, wind) rose by 14.69% during the first three-quarters of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016. Simultaneously, electrical generation by fossil fuels and nuclear power combined declined by 5.41%. Nuclear power and coal both dropped by 1.5%, natural gas (including “other” gas) was down by 10.7%, and oil (i.e., petroleum liquids and petroleum coke) plunged by 17.1%.

In the latest issue of its “Energy Infrastructure Update” (with data through November 30, 2017), the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) notes that proposed net additions to generating capacity by utility-scale wind and solar could total 115,984 megawatts (MW) by December 2020 – effectively doubling their current installed capacity of 115,520 MW. The numbers were released as FERC prepares for a January 10 meeting to consider U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Rick Perry’s proposal for a bailout of the coal and nuclear industries.

Vestas has received a firm and unconditional order for 190 MW of 4 MW platform turbines in the U.S. taking the global order intake for the company in 2017 to 10.6 GW, surpassing 2016’s record order intake of 10.5 GW. The surge of orders at the end of the year has resulted in the company revising its guidance for free cashflow upwards. It now expects the free cashflow for 2017 to be €1.15bn-€1.25bn, as compared with the previous guidance of €450m-€900m. Markets have reacted favourably with the company share price experiencing an increase of 5%.