Week 11 College Football Trends: The Problem for Unbeaten Georgia

byJohn Ewing

There is incredible power in understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios. Using Bet Labs massive database of proprietary sports betting information you can easily build and explore data-driven betting systems.

Each week we will provide trends for the top teams in college football. Some trends will be team specific and others situational. Our database goes back to 2005, the trends include all games in that time frame unless otherwise mentioned.

No. 1 Alabama (-14.5) at No. 18 Mississippi State

Alabama heads to Starkville as two-touchdown favorites. The Tide are expected to win but don’t be surprised if they struggle to cover the spread against Mississippi State. In early action, nearly 70% of spread tickets are on Bama.

Alabama vs. ranked teams

SEC West: 18-19 ATS

All other teams: 19-6 ATS

No. 2 Georgia (-3) at No. 10 Auburn

No conference as sent two teams to the College Football Playoff before. That could change if Georgia and Alabama finish the season undefeated. The Bulldogs take their perfect record on the road against a dangerous Auburn squad. Teams with perfect records late in the season have not been good bets in the playoff era.

Undefeated teams late in the season (November/December): 111-119-5 (48.3%) ATS

In College Football Playoff era: 20-39-1 (33.9%) ATS

No. 3 Notre Dame (-3) at No. 7 Miami

From the Action Network newsletter (sign up for free): The Irish opened as 1.5-point road faves, with early sharp action on Notre Dame pushing that to four. There are intangibles at play — Brian Kelly and Notre Dame controls their playoff destiny if they continue to win — but also some deep-stat advantages that wiseguys think favor the Irish. Specifically, the Canes are 102nd in red zone TD scoring percentage, while ND’s defense ranks tied for ninth.

In top 25 matchups, the higher ranked team in non-conference games: 66-39 (62.9%) ATS

No. 4 Clemson (-17.5) vs. Florida State

A win over Florida State gives Clemson its third straight Atlantic Division title. The Tigers are -1000 on the moneyline to beat the Noles, 90.9% chance based on implied probability. Few think Dabo Swinney’s team will lose but can they cover?

The public likes favorites, except in matchups of Top 25 teams. Then recreational bettors will take the underdog thinking a matchup of ranked teams will be close. Exploit that tendency by betting home favorites when two of the nation’s best play each other.

In matchups of top 25 conference teams, home favorites are 146-119-5 (55.1%) ATS

No. 6 Wisconsin (-13) vs. No. 25 Iowa

Can Iowa pull off another upset? A week after thrashing Ohio State 55-24, the Hawkeyes go on the road against undefeated Wisconsin. Iowa was able to knock the Buckeyes out of the playoff conversation and have a chance to do the same to the Badgers, just don’t count on it.

Ranked teams after beating top 10 opponent: 97-120-2 (44.7%) ATS

No. 7 Miami vs. No. 3 Notre Dame (-3)

Miami is undefeated and at home in Week 11 but oddsmakers have made them small underdogs. It has been profitable to bet all underdogs with perfect records. At the time of publication, more than 70% of spread bets are on Notre Dame.

Undefeated underdogs

All games: 439-388-18 (53.1%) ATS

After first four games: 97-67-5 (59.1%) ATS

No. 8 TCU at No. 5 Oklahoma (-7)

TCU bounced back from a 14-7 loss in Ames by beating Texas 24-7 last Saturday. The Horned Frogs have a chance to impress the playoff committee if they can beat Oklahoma in Norman. Gary Patterson’s team is a touchdown underdog but a majority of spread bets are on TCU. A majority of spread bets are on the Frogs, is that a smart wager?

Washington’s defense is second in the country in points allowed (11.1 ppg). The Huskies limited Oregon to a field goal in a 38-3 victory at home in Week 10. While Chris Petersen’s defense is stout, it has been profitable to fade Top 10 teams after a strong defensive showing.

Top 10 team that allowed 3 or fewer points in previous game: 81-93 (46.6%) ATS

No. 10 Auburn vs. No. 2 Georgia (-3)

Auburn opened as two-point favorites before bettors moved the line to Georgia -3. Top 10 teams are rarely underdogs at home but they haven’t fared well when bookmakers expect them to lose.

Top 10 team that are home underdogs: 12-25 straight-up and 18-18-1 ATS