For China, I'm guessing (just based on my burg) the roads just aren't as wonderful (I mean, every spring and summer I can count on the roads I knew not being the same shape anymore, either through construction or through weather effects - which really shouldn't happen so fast.....). Also, aggregate speed isn't as high as it will be in years to come. The speeds drivers expect to travel at are higher these days, but that increase has happened over the last five years at most. And probably none of the statistics coming out of China are in anyway reliable.

But what's going to really start messing people up as speeds increase, cars grow more numerous, and roads get better is just how inadequate the social institutions governing driving are. Every traffic jam I've ever seen is almost always caused by something small, like one person deciding they can get an advantage by slipping briefly into the opposite lane, or another person cutting off someone else and getting tagged, and then everyone else starts looking for shortcuts and soon enough the road is a parking lot full of cars turned this way and that. When all of that starts happening at higher speeds, the death rate is going to start jumping.

I don't know if automobiles really are the test case, but there's a way of saying they are. It goes like this:

Culturally-speaking, and therefore in actual practice too, Chinese are not good at providing individual support for impersonal group benefits. If the group is not family, classmates or some other guanxi cohort, Chinese will not act to support the good of that group. Indeed, they may act to undermine any benefits that could have accrued to that group.

For example, the group is "road users" and the good of all - the safe, secure, prompt passage of all from their starting points to their destinations - is determined by an impersonal set of "rules of the road". Keep to your lane, keep to the speed limit, use indicators, give way, follow directions, wait your turn, and so on.

If given, say, another five to ten years of consumer car life and infrastructure provision, road use does not improve or indeed the death toll starts becoming war-like, well then we'll know.

Both the Thais and Chinese are (from a western point of view) terrible drivers. However, there are some significant differences between the two which explain why the death rate in Thailand is so high... carnage in fact.

1. The roads:- in Thailand are (in general) shit... with few proper expressways/divided highways (dual carriageways).- China has a network of properly engineered expressways.

2. Drugs:- I estimate at least 50% of all Thai drives are impaired by alcohol and/or yaba/meth.- I estimate less than 5% of Chinese drivers are impaired.

3. Buddhism:- The Thais actually believe an amulet/blessing by a monk will protect them (no matter how idiotically they drive).

4. Culture:- In China the 'Rules of the Road' are.... flexible? - In Thailand there is a complete, utter and total disregard for the 'Rules of the Road'. - In China everyone understands blowing your horn is warning not to change lanes/pull out.- In Thailand blowing your horn will incite road rage (and there's a good chance you could be shot).

« Last Edit: September 06, 2017, 10:30:41 PM by cruisemonkey »

Logged

The Koreans once gave me five minutes notice - I didn't know what to do with the extra time.