Mesoscale Discussion 1193
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017
Areas affected...Far northeast KS...far southeast NE...and far
northwest MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 300635Z - 300900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible
through 07-08Z across far northeast KS, far southeast NE into
northwest MO. Thereafter, this activity should diminish in
intensity as it moves to the southeast, reaching the Kansas City
metro area by 10Z (5 AM).
DISCUSSION...Trends in radar imagery showed the trailing portion of
a convective outflow boundary, attendant to earlier storms in
southwest IA, extended into far southeast NE. The storm moving
southeast through far southeast NE (from Nemaha County into
Richardson County) appeared to be located near the aforementioned
outflow boundary. Meanwhile, additional storms were developing and
moving through Riley and Marshall Counties KS into Pawnee and
western Richardson Counties NE since 0545-0555Z.
All of these storms were occurring within the northeast extent of
residual moderate instability and sufficient effective bulk shear
supporting organized storms. Low-level inflow into these
aforementioned storms should eventually become cutoff from a nearly
solid band of storms extending from north-central OK/south-central
KS to near and south to southeast of the Kansas City metro, and
result in diminishing storm intensities/severe potential. Until
then, the residual moderate instability and forcing for ascent
attendant to an eastward-moving MCV (located approximately east of
KCNK at 0620Z) should prove favorable for one or two additional
stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and/or locally
strong wind gusts through 07-08Z.
..Peters/Edwards.. 06/30/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39149673 39689665 40339577 40349560 40139480 39909439
39629429 39429433 39329466 39259596 39149673