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Why the virus could mean fewer deaths by other causes

The pandemic bans on travel and non-essential services appear to be making the roads safer, with the latest March numbers for NSW showing a drop in deaths from 41 to to 25 compared to the same time last year.

A lighter road toll is part of what is expected to be a general decline in non-COVID-19 related deaths as more Australians stay off the roads, away from beaches, sport and recreation and tuck up at home during the virus shutdown.

It may be one of many unintended consequences only just emerging from the massive disruption caused by measures to slow the spread of the virus.

Reduced traffic is leading to lower traffic fatalities Getty

In China, for example, divorce applications have reportedly surged among locked-down couples, while cleaner air is being recorded in India. And studies suggest tough economic times may result in fewer deaths from illnesses such as heart disease.

In NSW, road deaths were down by 23, or 21 per cent, since the beginning of the year compared with the same period in 2019. Victorian fatalities were down by 14, or 25 per cent, in the first two months of the year. The numbers include a downturn in the number of tourists moving around because of the bushfires as well as the start of the coronavirus crackdown.

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National year-to-date figures from the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics show 31 fewer deaths on the roads to the end of February, a 15 per cent fall. Aggregated March numbers are yet to published.

And the Easter road toll in all states and territories are expected to be lower as isolation policies extend through the holiday period, Traffic volumes are already down to around 12 per cent of normal levels in Sydney and Melbourne, and the restrictions mean fewer people will be travelling this long weekend.

There have been similar falls in traffic accidents in the US, where 911 calls were down to their lowest levels in 17 years in San Francisco for the week of March 17-23, according to a Quartz report.

Unintended consequences

Reports from China point to large spikes in divorce applications as couples react to the stress of close co-habitation, and social researchers are bracing for a whole set of unintended consequences from the large scale lock-down of societies.

"Reductions in air pollution in China caused by this economic disruption likely saved twenty times more lives in China than have currently been lost directly due to infection with the virus in that country," said Marshall Burke, an associate professor at Stanford's Department of Earth System Science.

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Satellite imagery is reporting an 81 per cent drop in nitrogen dioxide levels in the air above Mumbai, one of India's most crowded cities. Nitrogen dioxide inflames the lining of the lungs and can reduce immunity to lung infections.

Perversely, lower nitrogen dioxide levels can lead to increased ozone levels at night, according to a new California study, underlining the uncertainty of the effects of the coronavirus slowdown.

Recession improves mortality rates

International studies from a variety of countries also suggest that death rates are lower during economic downturns. One US study found a one per cent increase in unemployment during the great recession was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality of 3.95 deaths per 100,000 people in metropolitan areas.

The study found estimated reductions in cardiovascular disease mortality contributed 60 per cent of the overall effect, with women the major beneficiary. "Motor vehicle accident mortality declined with unemployment increases, especially for men and those under age 65, as did legal intervention and homicide mortality, particularly for men and adults ages 25–64," the study found.

The same study suggested increases in metropolitan area unemployment led to increases accidental drug poisoning deaths for both men and women ages 25–64.

The relationship between the tightness of the lockdown and the economic recovery is a central issue for policymakers. A Federal Reserve study of the 1918 Spanish Flu found cities that intervened strongly with isolation measures recovered better.

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"We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over," the paper said.

"Our findings thus indicate that NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions) not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic."

The intense focus on measures to reduce deaths has exposed the lack of publicly available aggregated data that gives a complete picture of the effectiveness of the measures.

Australian does not have any aggregated real-time reports for deaths, with the latest compilation from the Australian Bureau of Statistics dated 2018. The Australian Institute for Health and Welfare released a data report mid-last year.

Multiple agencies, ranging from birth, death and marriage registries, health departments, road and traffic entities, and work safety agencies, all report deaths in a non-standardised manner.

Public health agencies seeking to understand the broader impacts of death track years of potential life lost. This is a measure of premature mortality which weights age at death to gain an estimate of how many years a person would have lived had they not died prematurely.

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Tom Burton has held senior editorial and publishing roles with The Mandarin, The Sydney Morning Herald and as Canberra bureau chief for The Australian Financial Review. He has worked in government, specialising in the communications sector. He has won three Walkley awards. Connect with Tom on Twitter. Email Tom at tom.burton@afr.com

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