Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-30, 2012):

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ABC's rookie dramas Last Resort premiered with just a 2.2 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday at 8pm, and 666 Park Avenue started with just a 2.1 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday night. Because of that, they're both more likely to be canceled than renewed by May, 2013.

Veteran shows that are syndicated or in range of syndication like Castle andPrivate Practice get cut a lot of slack with their ratings. And sophomore shows like Scandal get cut at least a *little* more slack than rookies. That's not to say that all three of those veteran shows are in good shape for another season, just that after one week, I'm not ready to put any of them in danger.

This is just the first week for ABC's 2012-13 shows, more ratings information will likely cause many changes to these predictions in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bearon Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2013

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013

- certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

I really enjoyed 666 Park Avenue. I also enjoy Private Practice, but with Kate Walsh leaving after 13 episodes it’s best if they end the show then. Grey’s Anatomy should go out with a bang in season 10

Holly

@Kenny,

The predictions and smileys are based on ratings not perceived quality.

Timliu

Oh no, I love ‘Last Resort’

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“Hold the phone have you guys WATCHED The Neighbors? and you people gave that 4 smiley faces? Hollywood Reporter said it was the WORST sitcome in 10 years, worse the “Work It” last year, and “Last Resort” going against the #1 comedy and probally the BIGGEST show right now Big Bang Theory and 666 Park Ave going against the BIGGEST football game NBC has seen in years. C`mon guys.”

You seem to be confused. I don’t watch the shows (haven’t yet watched a broadcast show this season, at current course and speed, I may not).

The ratings after a single The Neighbors airing say “likely renewed”, after another airing that’s likely to change. JUST LIKE IT SAYS IN THE POST.

As for all your excuses about Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue, welcome to Fan Excuse Bingo, baby!

Shashwat

You’re not considering the international ratings for Castle. It has a huge share in Europe & especially Asia, plus its owned by ABC Studios. So there’s no sharing of profits. Its a certain renewal.

little_big_man

@Bill: But you do realize that The Neighbors hasn’t even aired an episode in its own slot yet? That’s like predicting Animal Practice to be renewed after the Olympic-Premiere…

omabin

@Bill,

How do you have ABC’s scripted show average from last week being a 2.0? Even considering the 10 pm dramas (which I would argue that shouldn’t be included in a direct comparison with DWTS since the 10pm hour is always weaker, the more so this year):

This averages a 3.0, which is higher even than the 2.5 it got last week. If you remove the 10pm hour from the equation, then you get a 3,6 average, way way higher than what DWTS would do.

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“You’re not considering the international ratings for Castle. It has a huge share in Europe & especially Asia, plus its owned by ABC Studios. So there’s no sharing of profits. Its a certain renewal.”

More Fan Excuse Bingo. International ratings are not the dog, at best they are the tail.

That’s not to say Castle won’t be renewed. Because of its syndication, I will not predict it below a “toss up” this season and it could go up from there.

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“@Bill: But you do realize that The Neighbors hasn’t even aired an episode in its own slot yet? That’s like predicting Animal Practice to be renewed after the Olympic-Premiere…”

Not quite. And since things will change after the next airing, I don’t view it as a big deal.

I’d rather predict than not predict.

Shashwat

@Bill I hate Castle. I cannot be more objective here.

omabin

Also, I wasn’t even considering the results show in this comparison, or DWTS average would be even lower.

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“@Bill I hate Castle. I cannot be more objective here.”

I wasn’t questioning your objectivity, just your understanding of how things work.

KJ Styles

It’s funny how the guy who tracks all these ratings doesn’t watch a lick of broadcast TV. Does nothing appeal to you at all, Bill? No disrespect intended but just asking.

were123

Wasn’t this the last season of Private Practice? Why is it a toss up?

jens2488

Happy for OUAT and Revenge.

Scandal will stay the whole season.

Private Practice will be done. Bad ratings and Kate Walsh will leave. Ratings would decrease after her departure. Even when it is only a small drop that would be bad, because PP has already extremely low ratings.

Out of Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue, I tink Last Resort has the better chance to get an order for more episodes. It has no big lead in like 666 and it grew in its half hours, which makes me more optimistic about episode 2.

The Neighbors will probably bomb this week without Modern Family.

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“Wasn’t this the last season of Private Practice? Why is it a toss up?”

Many people *assume* its the last season, but it has not been *announced* as the last season.

“It’s funny how the guy who tracks all these ratings doesn’t watch a lick of broadcast TV. Does nothing appeal to you at all, Bill?”

No broadcast scripted shows currently. I watched House till it ended, and 30 Rock until I got tired of it. I watch every NFL game my schedule allows, am addicted to Red Zone, a couple cable dramas (SOA, Copper, Justified in the spring), Mythbusters, PTI and Top Gear.

youwsahh

Last Resort was available free online for a month before the same episode was shown on network television. I wonder how that affected the ratings?

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“Last Resort was available free online for a month before the same episode was shown on network television. I wonder how that affected the ratings?”

Networks *think* it helps them in the long run, or they wouldn’t do it.

Justin121

Second, why do people assume ABC would replace 3 hours of DWTS with 3 hours of dramas? Why not 3 hours of a *new* reality show? Or some subset of those 3 hours as reality?

I don’t. It could be dramas, sitcoms, reality, or a combination of the three.

There’s also the possibitly of cancelling just the results show or cutting it back to one cycle.

I just know that the time has come where the top reality shows are no longer guaranteed renewals in their age-old timeslots. DWTS being in the most danger since it’s on 3x a week 2x a year and is the first (among the likes of The Biggest Loser, Survivor, The Amazing Race) to near, and possibily dip below, its network average.