Positive news in lead up to New Zealand Budget helps National Government support jump to 54% - highest since October 2011

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 866 electors from May 4-17, 2015. Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

During May support for the National Government was up 8.5% to 54% as positive news on the NZ Budget was progressively released. The National-led Government has a large lead over a potential Labour/Greens/ NZ First alliance with their support at 42% (down 7.5%), according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll.

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that National would win easily and be able to govern in their own right.

Support for the Maori Party (National partners) dropped to 1% (down 0.5%) while support is unchanged for both Act NZ 1% and United Future 0%.

Support has decreased for all three Parliamentary Opposition parties: Labour’s support is now at 25.5% (down 2%), Greens 10.5% (down 3%) and NZ First 6% (down 2.5%). For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (down 0.5%).

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 136.5pts (up 1.5pts). There are now 63% (up 1%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 26.5% (down 0.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week was at 99.5pts.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“National has enjoyed a strong increase in support in the lead up to last week’s New Zealand Budget – rising to 54% (up a large 8.5% since April). Prime Minister John Key promised in last year’s New Zealand election campaign that he would ‘govern for all New Zealanders’ with his brand of ‘compassionate conservatism’. Today’s New Zealand Morgan Poll shows his message is getting through to the broader electorate.

“Last week’s NZ Budget provided a strong reflection of the strength of the NZ economy including the first increase in welfare benefits in 43 years outside regular inflation adjustments including for families suffering hardship (targeted at the poorest families).

“In addition there were positive economic forecasts for the future including average economic growth of nearly 3% over the next four years, an increase in average wages to $63,000 per year by 2019 and a Budget surplus in 2015/16, set to increase strongly to over $3.5 billion by 2018/19.

“The positive overtones from the Budget are also reflected in this month’s New Zealand Government Confidence – now at 136.5 (up 1.5pts) with 63% (up 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – far higher than in Australia where only 41.5% of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and the Australian Government Confidence Rating is stuck below 100 at 99.5.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 866 electors from May 4-17, 2015. Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Interactive Voting Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

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