A reader debate on Iran

Time to get tough?

Will further sanctions deter Iran?

A new resolution about sanctions on Iran will soon be up for discussion at the United Nations Security Council. Many people now feel that a tighter sanctions regime is needed to get Iran to think again about the costs of its defiance over its nuclear programme.

But that is proving difficult to implement. China and Russia in particular have been reluctant to pursue more stringent sanctions though there are signs that Russia at least may be having second thoughts. On Monday March 1st Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, said that Russia would back new sanctions against Iran as long as they did not create a humanitarian crisis. But on Tuesday Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, stressed that there was still room for further diplomatic efforts.

Also on Monday, at a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear guardian, the agency's new chief, Yukiya Amano, said Iran was not co-operating fully with the investigation into its nuclear programme. Mr Amano's statement that the IAEA cannot confirm that all Iran's nuclear activity is peaceful may strengthen support for sanctions.

In the past, we have argued that it is time for tougher sanctions on the Iranian regime. Getting agreement for such sanctions will be hard but we believe that the price for inaction is higher.

Will sanctions have any effect on Iran? Most of our readers seem sceptical. Derridaderider thinks not: “Too late, much too late; there's no way Iran will back off now that it has got so close. All experience is that sanctions strengthen a ruling party's position even as they weaken the country. A weak Iran with a strong government has more, not less, motivation to get a bomb.” WTraveler agrees that sanctions will not deter Iran from pursuing nuclear power and maintains that “Iran has every right to do so under the Non Proliferation Treaty.”

sp3d2orbit is also doubtful of the power of sanctions, arguing that “Iran started its nuclear program long before the war in Iraq. They have no intention of giving up nuclear weapons, no matter what the US does. Most likely Iran will acquire nuclear weapons and eventually use them against Israel causing a massive war in the Middle East. Russia and China have no interest in stopping this because it will destabilize US interests in the region.”

Update: As the debate has continued, more of our readers have argued that sanctions will have little effect on Iran. SamPrime thinks that we are asking the wrong question in the first place, arguing that the real question should be “can sanctions stop Iran's goals to develop nuclear weapons?” and answering that “you can deter but not stop...if the last decade (or more) showed us anything, it is that Iran will pursue nuclear weapons no matter what.”

epsic believes that tough sanctions could help but that they will never be implemented. epsic goes on to argue that “the real decision is between military action or not, and the talk of sanctions is just a smoke screen to calm people down. They will say, there is still time, still time, it's now too late.”

deconstructer makes the case that “Sanctions, depending on the scope of them, can hardly be supported by Russia and China given that the weakening of US, European hegemony in the Middle East, if Iran obtains nuclear technology and capability, plays in the hands of Russia and China in the long run. The deprivation of US power in this strategic region is one of the main strategic goals of Russia and China.”