PPP: Gay marriage ban flags in Minn.

The Democratic polling firm finds a reversal of opinion in Minnesota on a proposed constitutional ban on gay marriage, which was ahead in the polls earlier this year:

Now only 43% of voters support the proposed amendment, with 49% of voters opposed to it. The shift since then has come with independent voters. After previously supporting the amendment by a 50/40 spread, they're now opposing it 54/37. Republicans continue to strongly favor the amendment (74/21) while Democrats are almost equally strong in their opposition (71/22).

Independents coming a lot closer to Democrats than Republicans on gay rights is becoming something of a constant in our polling. The GOP seriously risks antagonizing voters in the middle if it continues to pursue a far right social agenda.

Minnesota sees the same massive generational gap on this issue that we've found in other states. Voters over 45 support the proposed amendment by a 50/42 spread. But those under 45 oppose it by an even greater 60/34 margin.

Voters in the state think gay marriage should be legal by a 47/42 margin, closely matching the numbers on the amendment.

Even as the national tide in public opinion has turned in a friendly direction for gay marriage advocates, they have still won very few victories at the ballot box, and a win in Minnesota would be a big deal.