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Bush and Gore Evenly Matched on Issues

by Frank Newport

But Bush fares better on character dimensions

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- George W. Bush and Al Gore appear to be fairly
evenly matched on a series of major issues tested in the CNN/USA
Today/Gallup polling conducted Monday through Wednesday of this
week, but the Texas governor has an edge over the vice president on
several character and leadership dimensions. Bush is more likely
than Gore to be seen as honest, sincere, and a strong and decisive
leader, although Gore beats Bush on the ability to understand
complex issues. The poll also shows that Bush's record in Texas
appears to be a net positive for the governor, giving a little over
half of likely voters greater confidence in Bush's ability to serve
as president.

Five Issues
Polling conducted October 23-25 suggests that Bush and Gore are now
roughly evenly matched on who voters say can better handle
Medicare, the economy, Social Security, and education. On the issue
of taxes, Bush has a nine-point edge over Gore.

SUMMARY OF GORE/BUSH ADVANTAGE ON ISSUES

Based on Likely Voters

Gore

Bush

Advantage

%

%

%

Medicare

46

44

+2

The economy

45

45

0

Social Security

45

46

-1

Education

44

48

-4

Taxes

41

50

-9

+ Advantage indicates Gore lead
- Advantage indicates Bush lead

The even positioning of the two candidates on Medicare, the
economy, Social Security and education represents a change from
surveys conducted in mid-August, immediately after the Democratic
convention, and from surveys conducted in September. During both
periods of time, Gore led Bush on all four items. Immediately after
the Republican convention, however, Bush beat Gore on the issues
tested. Earlier in the year, the picture was more mixed -- at least
in terms of the economy and education, on which the two candidates
were about evenly matched.

Character and Leadership Dimensions
The poll asked voters to choose which candidate best fits each of
eight specific character descriptions. The dimensions on which
voters make the biggest distinctions in choosing between Bush and
Gore are ones that fit conventional wisdom as portrayed in media
accounts: Gore is selected over Bush in terms of "understanding
complex issues," while Bush wins out on the "honesty and
trustworthiness" dimension.

The two candidates are roughly tied on three other dimensions --
"can manage the government effectively," "is more in touch with the
average voter," and "cares about the needs of people like you,"
while Bush bests Gore on three others -- "shares your values," "is
a strong and decisive leader" and "is sincere in what he says."

SUMMARY OF GORE/BUSH ADVANTAGE ON CHARACTER

Based on Likely Voters

Gore

Bush

Advantage

%

%

%

Understands complex issues

45

38

+7

Can manage the government effectively

42

44

-2

Is more in touch with the average voter

41

43

-2

Cares about the needs of people like you

41

44

-3

Shares your values

39

48

-9

Is a strong and decisive leader

38

48

-10

Is sincere in what he says

35

47

-12

Is honest and trustworthy

33

47

-14

+ Advantage indicates Gore lead
- Advantage indicates Bush lead

For the most part, these are not new distinctions. Voters have
been asked to choose between the two candidates on the "honest"
dimension five times since July, and Bush has won each time --
except immediately after the Democratic convention in mid-August,
when Gore was selected over Bush by a 42% to 39% margin.

The "understands complex issues" dimension has been measured six
times, and Gore has won it in all three polls conducted since the
Democratic convention. He also did better than Bush on this
dimension in April. Bush managed to edge out Gore on this
"understanding" dimension in a poll conducted in late July,
immediately before the Republican convention, and in early August,
just after that convention.

The one dimension on which Bush has consistently held the
advantage over Gore is the measure of who best fits the description
of being "a strong and decisive leader." Although the margin has
varied, Bush has been selected over Gore each of the six times this
has been asked -- by a margin as wide as 31 points immediately
after the GOP convention in August.

Bush's Record as Governor of Texas
A little more than half of likely voters say that George W. Bush's
record as governor of Texas makes them more confident in his
ability to handle the job of president, while about a third say
that his record makes them less confident.

Does the job George W. Bush has done as governor of Texas
make you [ROTATED: more confident in his ability to handle the job
of president (or) less confident in his ability to handle the job
of president]?

More
confident

Less
confident

NO EFFECT
(vol.)

No
opinion

Likely Voters

2000 Oct 23-25

55%

32

6

7

(vol.) Volunteered response

There are divisions by party on this dimension, in a predictable
manner. Democrats are likely to say that Bush's record as governor
makes them less confident, while Republicans and to a lesser extent
independents say that his record makes them more confident.

Is There a Candidate Running Who Would Make a Good
President?
A significant majority of voters think there is at least one
candidate running for president this year who would make a good
president, and this perception is actually higher now than it was
early this year as the campaign season got underway:

Based on what you may have heard or read so far about the
campaign and the candidates, is there any candidate running this
year that you think would make a good president, or not?

Yes

No

No
opinion

%

%

%

Likely Voters

2000 Oct 23-25

78

16

6

2000 Mar 10-12

79

17

4

2000 Jan 7-10

61

33

6

Registered Voters

2000 Oct 23-25

71

23

6

2000 Mar 10-12

73

22

5

2000 Jan 7-10

57

35

8

National Adults

1996 May 9-12

57

39

4

1992 Oct 23-25

68

26

6

1992 Sep 11-15

61

32

7

1992 Apr 20-22

47

44

9

1992 Jan 6-9

40

41

19

Over three-quarters of likely voters answer yes to this question
about acceptable candidates, compared to just 61% who answered yes
back in January.

There are differences in response to this question by political
orientation. Republicans, conservatives and Bush voters are most
likely to be satisfied with the candidates running this year, while
Democrats, independents, liberals and Gore voters are least likely
to be satisfied.

Based on what you may have heard or read so far about the
campaign and the candidates, is there any candidate running this
year that you think would make a good president, or not?

Yes

No

No
opinion

%

%

%

Likely Voters

Republicans

85

12

3

Independents

71

22

7

Democrats

76

15

9

Bush Voters

84

13

3

Gore Voters

75

18

7

Conservative

82

13

5

Moderate

77

19

4

Liberal

68

22

10

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with -- 1,180 --
national adults, aged 18+, conducted October 23-25, 2000. For
results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say
with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 3
percentage points.

Results based on the subsample of -- 929 -- people who indicate
they are registered to vote have a margin of sampling error of +/-
3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of --
678 -- survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the
November 2000 general election, according to a series of questions
measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For
results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say
with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 4
percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording
and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce
error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Slightly more Americans agree (52%) than disagree (45%) that the federal government is responsible for making sure all Americans have healthcare coverage. This balance of views is similar to last year.

Americans' daily self-reports of spending averaged $98 in November, up from $93 in October. The latest figure is the highest average recorded for the month of November since Gallup began tracking consumer spending in 2008.