In 14Q3, GDP volume contracted with 0.1% q-o-q. Investment acted as the largest drag on growth. In 2015, GDP volume is expected to grow slowly after three years of contraction, mostly on the back of foreign demand. Unemployment will remain high.

Spain’s economic recovery has strengthened in the third quarter, mainly due to growth in consumption and investment. This also improves next year’s growth outlook. Meanwhile, the external rebalancing is in full swing and government finances are improving.

Bulgaria’s economic and political situation remains tense, as yet another government stepped down, the local financial system was shaken by organised bank runs, and bilateral relations with Russia soured markedly due to the halt of construction of the South Stream pipeline.

Algeria’s social situation remains stable as President Bouteflika was elected for his fourth term in office. The government presented a new five-year plan that once more aims to diversify the economy away from the hydrocarbon sector.

Qatar’s economy is likely to expand by a robust 6% in 2014, although it remains highly dependent on the hydrocarbon sector. Moreover, tensions with its GCC neighbours remain a challenge for Qatar given its ambition as an international peace broker.

German GDP-growth was weak in the third quarter. It was mainly driven by domestic consumption, while gross capital formation attributed negatively. Going forward, we expect this picture to remain unchanged.