Weekend Wrap-Up
by Tim Briody
August 5, 2018
BoxOfficeProphets.com

We flip the calendar to August and it feels like summer is over as we get three new releases, none of which had any real chance of breaking out. That means we get the first repeat weekend winner since June.

Mission: Impossible - Fallout takes the top spot again this weekend with $35 million, a 43% decline from last weekend. It's got $124.4 million after two weekends. That's an improvement on the second weekend decline of 2015's Rogue Nation, which dipped 49% in its second weekend. 2011's Ghost Protocol is a poor comparison as not only did it open in December, it also opened in 425 theaters before expanding to 3,448 in its second weekend. It's also the best second weekend hold in the franchise's history, not counting Ghost Protocol's shenanigans.

Fallout will pass 2006's Mission: Impossible 3 ($133.5 million) midweek and is currently on pace to be the biggest film in the franchise's history; the 10-day total is well ahead of the current top film, 2000's Mission: Impossible 2 ($215.4 million). The 10th best reviewed film of 2018 (and third best wide release, behind only Paddington 2 and Black Panther) per Rotten Tomatoes, Fallout doesn't have any major contenders on the horizon, and this weekend's hold comes despite three new releases.

The top new film for the weekend, Christoper Robin takes second place with an estimated $25 million. It's a live action Winnie the Pooh adaptation, with Ewan McGregor as a grown up Christopher Robin. Weirdly, the Disney release wasn't screened for critics, but reviews haven't been entirely bad (68% Fresh), just not high enough to really move the needle, though you can also argue family films with well known IP's are review proof. It's a decent candidate to show some legs, and it will probably need it with a $75 million reported budget.

The Spy Who Dumped Me lands in third place with $12.3 million. A comedy starring Mila Kunis and Kate McKinnon, it was kneecapped by bad reviews (just 37% Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes) as McKinnon still looks for her big box office breakout (her only real hit to this point is Ghostbusters). Kunis has had more success (Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Ted, Bad Moms), but is far from a top draw. With the bad reviews, The Spy Who Dumped Me isn't long for this world, and continues what's been a tepid year for comedies.

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! dips 40% to $9 million in its third weekend and has $91.3 million to date. It's still ahead of the original from 2008 at this same point in release (it had $87.4 million after three weekends) but the gap is narrowing as the weekend declines have been much larger. Next weekend it'll cross $100 million, but it's not going to match the $143.7 million of Mamma Mia!, and $120 million is a more likely destination as of right now.

The Equalizer 2 adds $8.8 million (down 37%) in fifth place and has $79.8 million after three weekends. That's actually the same total The Equalizer has in 2014 after three weekends. It finished with $101.5 million, and we're looking at another photo finish as to whether the sequel (...izer) can match that total.

Despite some family competition, Hotel Transylvania 3 holds well, down just 33% to $8.1 million in its fourth weekend. It's got $136.4 million to date, which gets it closer to the $148.3 million of the first film from 2012 and the $169.7 million for the 2015 sequel. Right now it's still on pace to fall short of that total.

Ant-Man and the Wasp drops to seventh place with $6.1 million and $195.4 million after five weekends. It'll cross $200 million midweek, a solid improvement on the $180.2 million for the first Ant-Man from 2015. In other Marvel news, Disney used some creative accounting to finally push Black Panther over the $700 million mark. Why they didn't put it in 1,000-1,500 theaters at any point in the last month or double feature it with Ant-Man and the Wasp when it opened is beyond me.

A third opener is in eighth place as young adult adaptation The Darkest Minds lands with a thud, taking in just $5.8 million. We've long since exhausted the rich vein of YA adaptations from the last 20 years, so now everything is being thrown against the wall to see what sticks, and not much has. Somehow Fox thought 3,000 theaters for this one was a good idea, and that didn't pan out well at all. It was a relatively economical $34 million to make, but I'm not sure it's going to make that back, unless some other country overseas goes crazy for this one.

Incredibles 2 continues to hang on, with $5 million in its eighth weekend and $583.1 million to date. $600 million is going to be close, and if Black Panther's struggle to $700 million is any indication for Disney, The Incredibles will pass that figure sometime in early 2019.

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies rounds out the top ten, sliding 53% from last weekend with $4.8 million. It's got $20.7 million after two weekends. The audience for this one is pretty limited, so Warner Bros. should be very happy with this Cartoon Network adaptation, which reportedly only cost $10 million to produce.

Your top 12 films this weekend totaled up $125.2 million, ahead of last year's $110.4 million when The Dark Tower disappointed by winning the weekend with $19.1 million.

Next weekend brings another mixed bag of stuff, with sharks (The Meg), horror (Slender Man) and Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman).