Hugh Johnson fairly upbeat in annual forecast

Noted local investment adviser Hugh Johnson was fairly upbeat in his annual economic forecast before the Albany-Colonie Regional Chamber of Commerce this morning.

“The trend in the stock market is clearly up,” Johnson said.

He said stock returns, with dividends, should be roughly 10 percent.

Johnson used to run the asset management business of First Albany Cos. and is now chairman of Johnson Illington Advisors LLC of Albany, which has $677 million in assets under management. Johnson spoke at the Albany Marriott in Colonie before a packed breakfast audience.

But Johnson cautioned that if the housing market continues to deteriorate, the economy could suffer if oil prices spike again.

“That’s a big risk this economy faces,” he said.

The chance of a recession is 30 to 40 percent, he said, which is higher than previous years.

Although Johnson praised economies in Albany and Syracuse, he said the upstate economies in Rochester, Buffalo and Binghamton are not doing well. He cited high state taxes and workers’ compensation insurance as a reason.

“It costs too much to do business in New York state, and somebody has to do something about it,” he said. “Albany will continue to do well, but there are other parts of upstate New York that need help.”