Theresa May speaking in the House of Commons this week.
Photograph: Mark Duffy/AP

With five days to go until the Commons votes on the Brexit deal, No 10 is using both softly-softly and strong-arm tactics to try to win support from MPs.

What is the extent of opposition to Theresa May’s deal?

Guardian analysis suggests more than 100 Tory MPs will vote against the deal. That number is growing, not falling – the opposite of what usually happens in the run-up to a vote. Julian Smith, the chief whip, is said to have told colleagues that some MPs are “beyond reason” and will rebel no matter what the prime minister offers.

Worse still for Downing Street, the support it thought it could muster from Labour MPs has collapsed. Just two have openly floated voting with the government, and many others who had been expected to do so have now ruled it out.

Will that many actually vote against her?

Probably not. In fact, having such a large number of Tory MPs publicly declaring their opposition could be an advantage to No 10 in the spin war after May loses the vote. If whips manage to chip that number down to below 50, suddenly an eye-watering defeat begins to look like a moral victory.

Those who seem an absolute certainty are those who have put in a letter of no confidence in May plus those who have resigned from the government – around 40 in total. There are at least 10 more who are either committed hard Brexiters or who hope to force a second referendum.

What is May offering rebels to persuade them?

The prime minister has stepped up last-ditch efforts to try to win over MPs, but Brexiters immediately rejected one idea mooted by Downing Street, of promising a “parliamentary lock” giving MPs a vote before the backstop could be implemented.

May is holding a series of face-to-face meetings with groups of MPs, seeking to persuade them there is no viable alternative to her approach.

The other tactic is to brief heavily against the prospect of no deal. MPs who are privy counsellors have been invited by No 10 to a meeting on Friday with the civil contingencies secretariat, the Cabinet Office department responsible for serious emergencies, on the impact of a no-deal Brexit.

The target will be veteran Brexiters who previously held cabinet roles and thus are members of the privy council.

Can May pull the vote if it’s clear she’s going to lose?

Both May and the Commons leader, Andrea Leadsom, have insisted there is no prospect of Downing Street cancelling the Brexit vote next Tuesday, though some MPs have been urging the prime minister to do so.

MPs have already voted on the parliamentary business timetable for next week, so to unpick that would be very difficult. And Downing Street believes that pulling the vote would give it a worse chance of eventual success, not better.

Can she renegotiate a deal?

There is a possibility that May could pursue cosmetic tweaks to the non-legally binding political declaration. But the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has made it clear he has more or less shut his shop.

“I must say once again today, calmly and clearly, it is the only and best possible agreement,” he said on Thursday. “Everybody needs to do their bit, everybody needs to take on the responsibility. The British parliament will be voting on this in the next few days. This has serious implications for the future of the country.”

This is the same refrain as that of May and the chancellor, Philip Hammond, who said on Thursday it was “simply a delusion” that the deal could be negotiated. Even if tweaks could be made, it appears pretty inconceivable that a different deal could be reached without including a backstop.

What happens immediately after the vote is lost?

Anything could happen. Wednesday’s parliamentary timetable is currently empty to make way for emergency statements or votes. Labour could call a vote of no confidence in the government. The only chance of this succeeding would be if the DUP decides to back it; at the moment the party says it would not.

Should Labour win a no-confidence vote, an alternative Tory prime minister could try to form a government, or Labour could try to form one in coalition with other parties. If neither can be done, there would be a general election.

Or Tory MPs could call a vote of no confidence in May by submitting 48 letters to the chair of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers.

There is an EU council summit on Thursday and Friday where May could beg EU leaders to help salvage her deal, acquire some cosmetic changes and then put the vote to parliament again.

Or she could call an election herself, declaring parliament to be unworkable.