How U.S. can help Syria drive out ISIS

By Robert S. Ford

updated 6:42 PM EDT, Tue August 26, 2014

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters assemble at a shrine on Iraq's Mount Sinjar on Friday, December 19. The Kurdish military said that with the help of coalition airstrikes, it has "cleansed" the area of ISIS militants. ISIS has been advancing in Iraq and Syria as it seeks to create an Islamic caliphate in the region.

A Peshmerga fighter looks down at the body of an alleged ISIS fighter in Zummar, Iraq, on Thursday, December 18.

A Kurdish fighter stands next to a destroyed armored vehicle in northern Iraq on December 18. The vehicle was destroyed by an improvised explosive device placed by ISIS militants.

Peshmerga fighters stop to check a vehicle in Zummar on December 18 as they continue to battle ISIS fighters near the border with Syria.

Pro-Iraqi government forces guard a shrine in Balad, Iraq, on Monday, December 15.

A Yazidi woman displaced by ISIS militants tends to a fire Wednesday, December 10, at a shelter in Dohuk, Iraq.

A Kurdish child from the Kobani, Syria, area holds laundry at a refugee camp in Suruc, Turkey, on Monday, November 17. Tens of thousands of people have fled Kobani, known in Arabic as Ayn al-Arab, to escape ISIS.

Smoke rises from Kobani following airstrikes on November 17. The United States and several Arab nations have been bombing ISIS targets to take out the group's ability to command, train and resupply its fighters.

A Kurdish child from the Kobani area holds on to a fence at a refugee camp in Suruc on Sunday, November 16.

People in Suruc watch smoke rise near the Syrian border during clashes between ISIS members and armed groups on Thursday, November 13.

A bomb (upper left) falls on an ISIS position in Kobani during an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition on Saturday, November 8.

Iraqi military forces take up position in Jurf al-Sakhar, Iraq, on November 8.

Fire and smoke rise from Kobani following airstrikes against ISIS on Thursday, October 30.

Iraqi special forces search a house in Jurf al-Sakhar on October 30 after retaking the area from ISIS.

Smoke rises during fighting in Kobani on Monday, October 27.

ISIS militants stand near the site of an airstrike near the Turkey-Syria border on Thursday, October 23.

An explosion rocks Kobani during a reported car-bomb attack by ISIS militants on Monday, October 20.

People watch Kobani from a hill near the Turkey-Syria border on October 20.

Kurdish fighters walk to positions as they fight ISIS forces in Kobani on Sunday, October 19.

A U.S. Air Force plane flies above Kobani on Saturday, October 18.

Heavy smoke rises in Kobani following an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition on Saturday, October 18.

Cundi Minaz, a female Kurdish fighter, is buried in a cemetery in the southeastern Turkish town of Suruc on Tuesday, October 14. Minaz was reportedly killed during clashes with ISIS militants in nearby Kobani.

Turkish police officers secure a basketball stadium in Suruc on October 14. Some Syrian Kurds have been held there since crossing from Syria into Turkey.

Kiymet Ergun, a Syrian Kurd, celebrates in Mursitpinar, Turkey, after an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition in Kobani on Monday, October 13.

Smoke rises from Kobani on Sunday, October 12.

Syrian Kurds from Kobani stand outside the grounds of a refugee camp in Suruc on Saturday, October 11.

Alleged ISIS militants stand next to an ISIS flag atop a hill in Kobani on Monday, October 6.

In this photo released by the U.S. Air Force on Saturday, October 4, a U.S. Navy jet is refueled in Iraqi airspace after conducting an airstrike against ISIS militants.

A Kurdish Peshmerga soldier who was wounded in a battle with ISIS is wheeled to the Zakho Emergency Hospital in Duhuk on Tuesday, September 30.

Iraqi Shiite militiamen aim their weapons during clashes with ISIS militants in Jurf al-Sakhar on Sunday, September 28.

Syrian Kurds wait near a border crossing in Suruc as they wait to return to their homes in Kobani on Sunday, September 28.

Syrian Kurds wait behind border fences to cross into Suruc on September 28.

Tomahawk missiles, intended for ISIS targets in Syria, fly above the Persian Gulf after being fired by the USS Philippine Sea in this image released by the U.S. Navy on Tuesday, September 23.

Turkish Kurds clash with Turkish security forces during a protest near Suruc on Monday, September 22. According to Time magazine, the protests were over Turkey's temporary decision to close the border with Syria.

An ISIS flag flies on the other side of a bridge at the front line of fighting between ISIS and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters in Rashad, Iraq, on Thursday, September 11.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry reads on a flight en route to Iraq on Wednesday, September 10. Kerry traveled to the Mideast to discuss ways to bolster the stability of the new Iraqi government and combat ISIS.

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS militant positions from their position on the top of Mount Zardak, east of Mosul, Iraq, on Tuesday, September 9.

An Iraqi fighter jet flies over Amerli, Iraq, on September 3. Amerli had been under siege by ISIS militants.

Iraqi volunteer fighters celebrate breaking the Amerli siege on Monday, September 1. ISIS militants had surrounded Amerli, 70 miles north of Baquba, Iraq, since mid-June.

Kurdish Peshmerga forces stand guard at their position in the Omar Khaled village west of Mosul on Sunday, August 24.

Kurdish Peshmergas fight to regain control of the town of Celavle, in Iraq's Diyala province, on August 24.

Peshmerga fighters stand guard at Mosul Dam in northern Iraq on Thursday, August 21. With the help of U.S. military airstrikes, Kurdish and Iraqi forces retook the dam from ISIS militants on August 18. A breach of the dam would have been catastrophic for millions of Iraqis who live downstream from it.

Displaced Iraqis receive clothes from a charity at a refugee camp near Feeshkhabour, Iraq, on Tuesday, August 19.

A fighter with Kurdish Peshmerga forces battles ISIS militants near Mosul on Monday, August 18.

Peshmerga fighters inspect the remains of a car that reportedly belonged to ISIS militants and was targeted by a U.S. airstrike in the village of Baqufa, north of Mosul, on August 18.

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS in Khazair, Iraq, on Thursday, August 14.

Volunteers of the Iraqi Red Crescent Society unload boxes of goods before distributing them August 14 to families who fled from ISIS.

From the flight deck of the USS George H.W. Bush, which is in the Persian Gulf, two U.S. fighter jets take off for a mission in Iraq on Monday, August 11. U.S. President Barack Obama authorized airstrikes against Islamic militants and food drops for Iraqis who are trapped by the militants.

Aziza Hamid, a 15-year-old Iraqi girl, cries for her father while she and some other Yazidi people are flown to safety Monday, August 11, after a dramatic rescue operation at Iraq's Mount Sinjar. A CNN crew was on the flight, which took diapers, milk, water and food to the site where as many as 70,000 people were trapped by ISIS. But only a few of them were able to fly back on the helicopter with the Iraqi Air Force and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters.

Thousands of Yazidis are escorted to safety by Kurdish Peshmerga forces and a People's Protection Unit in Mosul on Saturday, August 9.

Iraqi Shiite volunteers who have joined government forces to fight ISIS take part in a training session near Basra, Iraq, on Thursday, August 7.

Thousands of Yazidi and Christian people flee Mosul on Wednesday, August 6, after the latest wave of ISIS advances.

A Baiji oil refinery burns after an alleged ISIS attack in northern Selahaddin, Iraq, on Thursday, July 31.

A Syrian rebel fighter lies on a stretcher at a makeshift hospital in Douma, Syria, on Wednesday, July 9. He was reportedly injured while fighting ISIS militants.

Iraqis who fled fighting in the cities of Mosul and Tal Afar try to enter a temporary displacement camp in Khazair on Wednesday, July 2.

Peshmerga fighters check cars at the entrance of a temporary displacement camp in Khazair on Thursday, June 26.

Kurdish Peshmerga take their positions behind a wall on the front line of the conflict with ISIS militants in Tuz Khormato, Iraq, on Wednesday, June 25.

Peshmerga fighters clean their weapons at a base in Tuz Khormato on June 25.

New army recruits gather in Najaf, Iraq, on Wednesday, June 18, following a call for Iraqis to take up arms against Islamic militant fighters.

An MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter lands on the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush in the Persian Gulf on Tuesday, June 17.

Newly recruited Iraqi volunteer fighters take part in a training session in Karbala, Iraq, on June 17.

Members of ISIS prepare to execute soldiers from Iraq's security forces in this image, one of many reportedly posted by the militant group online. CNN cannot independently confirm the authenticity of the images.

Iraqi men chant slogans outside of an army recruiting center to volunteer for military service Thursday, June 12, in Baghdad.

Kurdish Peshmerga forces, along with Iraqi special forces, deploy their troops and armored vehicles outside of Kirkuk, Iraq, on June 12.

Children stand next to a burnt vehicle during clashes between Iraqi security forces and ISIS militants in Mosul on Tuesday, June 10.

Civilians from Mosul escape to a refugee camp near Irbil, Iraq, on June 10.

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STORY HIGHLIGHTS

Robert Ford: U.S. mulling strike on ISIS elements in Syria

U.S. pressure on Iraq, including to form new government, has bolstered efforts to repel ISIS

He says aiding moderate Syria opposition would help them do the same, as al-Assad weakens

Ford: Aid should hinge on rebels making new government with shared focus on driving out ISIS

Editor's note: Robert S. Ford is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington. He formerly served as U.S. ambassador to Syria and Algeria, and was deputy U.S. ambassador to Iraq.

(CNN) -- American officials are pondering whether to strike ISIS elements in Syria to better contain the group's fearsome power, following its horrific execution of James Foley and the direct threats it has leveled against the United States.

As they consider how best to confront the organization, there is good news: The United States and its friends have scored some successes against ISIS in the past month. The administration provided material support to Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and Iraqi special operations forces, and with judicious use of airstrikes enabled them to repel ISIS attacks northwest and northeast of Baghdad.

Dealing with ISIS and Assad in Syria

Robert S. Ford

The Obama administration wisely understood that these military operations are only a short-term fix. The only sustainable solution is a new Iraqi government able to rally a large majority of Iraqis across ethnic and sectarian lines to fight the Islamic State in Syria. Iraqis have come together before to contain such extremists, and they could again.

Iraq's restive Sunni Arab population, furious at former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, backed ISIS in the Spring, but now Sunni Arab tribal figures in Anbar and Kirkuk, as well as some of the leaders from the urban business-political elite in Mosul and Salah ad-Din, have asked the Iraqi central government in Baghdad for help to fight the organization.

Success is not assured, but the picture is brighter than a month ago.

American pressure -- and tying military assistance to concrete progress toward assembling a broad-based national government -- have encouraged the hesitant Iraqis forward. The United States needs to sustain that approach.

But even with progress in Iraq, the United States and its friends cannot contain the Islamic State for long when it has a vast safe zone in Syria into which its fighters can fall back to rest, regroup, and fight again. As we contemplate a response, we should consider whether any of the strategies used recently in Iraq could also be used in Syria.

In Iraq, the United States identified friends willing to fight the Islamic State on the ground. The Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga were not perfect -- they are not a regular army, their command structure is at times unwieldy, and their political agendas are not always compatible with ours. However, they were clearly able to help blunt the ISIS advance, so cooperating with them was sensible.

Similarly, providing far more help to moderate elements of the Syrian armed opposition makes huge sense. They are motivated and have been locked in combat against ISIS for nine months. Despite fighting an uphill battle against the well-armed regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, heavily backed by Iran and Russia, they have advanced in some regions.

They share the same frustrating imperfections -- such as lack of professional discipline -- as the Peshmerga and the Iraqi military, but if they were better armed and financed, the moderate Syrian fighters could be helpful in repelling ISIS.

They already did so by expelling it from northwest Syria earlier this year and the Damascus area this summer. With stronger cash flows from governments in the West and Gulf, they could also lure Syrians away from ISIS bankrolls.

American airstrikes might be needed in Syria, but that would not be the most important tactic for success, nor would more material aid to the rebels be sufficient to contain the Islamic State over the long term. As in Iraq, there has to be a political angle as well.

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Helping a weakened al-Assad regime to consolidate its position in Damascus is not a recipe for sustainable success. The regime can't roll back the Islamic State now -- it is attracting scores of new jihadis every day. Helping al-Assad would multiply the numbers of recruits.

Rather, as in Iraq, Syria needs a new government.

The U.S. had hoped this would be negotiated in Geneva, where an international conference early this year aimed to find a political solution to the Syria conflict, but al-Assad rejected any serious negotiation. His Russian and Iranian allies, estimating that he could survive, and seeing no alternative, made no effort to convince the regime to do otherwise.

Six months later, however, the regime's pillars of support are weaker. There are reports that the regime earlier this month executed three air force pilots who had refused to obey orders. The minority Alawite sect that has backed al-Assad is openly grumbling about heavy losses in an endless war against the moderate rebels and now the ruthless Islamic State. A publicity campaign called "Scream of the Nation" is under way in the Alawite heartland. Its complaint: Assad keeps his throne while our children go to their coffins.

We need moderate armed opposition leaders in Syria to capitalize on this weariness by moving politically, not just militarily. As we boost aid to the moderate armed rebels, we must condition that help on their reaching out to disaffected regime supporters and developing with them a common political stance for a new, negotiated national unity government, with or without al-Assad.

The al-Assad regime won't go to the table easily, and the moderate rebels will need more help -- perhaps even hardware, like more mortars and rockets to hit airfields and bases and further rattle al-Assad's war machine.

Substantially boosting help to the moderate opposition would also compel Russia and Iran to rethink their blank check to al-Assad, especially if there is a better alternative route to contain ISIS.

As it did with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, Iran might consider other reasonable alternatives to the current Syrian leadership. Iran won't, however, until it recognizes that al-Assad can't win and can't rally enough support to contain the Islamic State.

One prominent American observer says it is folly to think that we can aid the moderate armed fighters to topple al-Assad. But toppling wasn't our goal before and shouldn't be now. We should aim to help the Syrian opposition inflict enough pain on the regime so that, despite al-Assad, the regime finally agrees to negotiate a new government whose first task will be to fight the Islamic State and eventually expel it from Syria.

In Syria's brutal, three-sided war, the U.S. has no easy options. We have never controlled events there. It is also true that civil wars don't always end in happy settlements. However, our inability to steer perfectly or to guarantee the best outcome can't be an excuse to maintain our current approach.