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NBA Picks

Monday Quick Pick: Back-to-Back Favors Under in Celtics-Hawks

The Hawks are coming off only their second win of the season Sunday, but it was on the road as double-digit underdogs against the Cavaliers, so congrats on anyone who had the moneyline in that game! Now they have a date with Boston as +7½ home underdogs Monday.

Both teams are coming off games Sunday, which should impact this one in several ways. The Celtics won their eighth straight game despite a quiet night from Kyrie Irving, while the Hawks overcame being double-digit road underdogs to upset the Cavaliers in Cleveland.

I’m not putting too much stock in the Hawks beating the Cavs, because Cleveland was without Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love had to leave the game early batting illness. Still, the Hawks are probably still basking in their Sunday victory, and that won’t be good for their Monday NBA Odds.

The Celtics are -8 in this one, but it’s the total that has the better value with both teams playing on no rest. Even though that would usually spell an 'over' play, I think the 'under' is the pick in this one for several reasons.

The main one is Boston didn’t need to push its starters to beat Orlando last night, so they are easily the fresher team. Atlanta’s offense is already not that great averaging just 102 points per 100 possessions, and with the Celtics allowing a league-best 96.9 points per 100 possessions, the Hawks might not even get to 90 points in this one.

That is because the Hawks have been the best team since 2016 cashing the under on a back-to-back: Atlanta is 14-7. Considering Boston is going to slow the Hawks down as much as possible, I see a game where the Celtics win and win with defense.