Hi, this AAR originated from a question i had about a strategic dilemma in New Caledonia as the japanese player in July 1942. The "Should I stay or should i go?" dilemma brought out a lot of responses on the right strategy and tactics, with differing opinions. Here is the background link with 3 pages of posts:

With no HRs concerning movement of your units outside of the Kwangtung territory, why on Earth does your opponent have any open terrain cities still in China? Why have you not mopped the floor with him there with your superfluous AV in China? I'd immediately dump out all of the artillery, infantry and unnecessary base / support forces that you can and take these sites. Places to start: 1. Ichang; 2. Pakhoi-Nanning-(other city on rail W of Kweilin). 3. Is Nanyang (extreme upper image) still in Allied hands? Intolerable. Kill them. 4. Loyang and Changchow? They're not in the image either. If they're not yours, they should have been 6 months ago. 5. Sian? Add that to the short list of cities that shoulda been yours by now. You've some work to do in China.

2. You've some unfinished business in the Southern DEI. Taberfane, Dobo, Saumlaki, Bobo and other dot hexes should have been captured. Koepang needs to be neutralized-it's a priority.

As for China, yes you right I have unfinished business there (as well as in the DEI). My opponent moved a large force of Chinese troops towards Foochow on the coast early in the game. I don't quite know why. It was a long campaign to surround and finish off the incursion--- I can't remember exactly, but I think i destroyed about 1,000 AV worth of Chinese troops. I would argue that was a mistake by my opponent. The failed offensive left him quite weak in the center. Once Changsha is finished there is not much to stop me moving on Chungking until I reach Chungking itself. So i have not taken all those cities you mentioned above, but I did spend the time destroying a lot of his combat power. And lastly regarding China, i am a bit of a rookie here. None of my AE games went this long, so I can't tell exactly if i did the right thing surrounding and destroying the invasion, or i should have left it alone and gone after those cities. Maybe i'll ignore Chungking after Changsha and go mop everything up.

I would consider bombing the airfield at Chungking (and perhaps other bases where you know engineers are present) at the least in order to keep his supply situation dire. Or simply any bombing campaign. All those Infantry units you've destroyed/will destroy will respawn there, if he doesn't have enough supply then they won't rebuild.

You don't know the power of... this fully operational Battle Station. How are your Yamatos?

Trust me, if you will be able to naval bombard Noumea every day, by at least one BB, after around two weeks, he will be lucky, if he will be able to muster 100 AV. Coastal battles are very different, than in-land battles, because of fleets. Try adding some DMS into bombardment TF (I am not sure Japan have them, but you can use something similar), to clear mines.

Also, take those bases on east (New Hebrides). You will be able to LRCAP New Caledonia from there, and there are few spots, which can be build quickly to large airbase.

After heeding all of the advice and instruction from various posts & PM's, I'm in "Send guns, lawyers, money, the s%*% has hit the fan!" mode. Various forces, including artillery, support units, engineers, are rushing in from all over the empire, including 2 divisions near Truk and some tank units. Only 5 of my 8 BB's are readily available, (2 under months long repair at Yokohoma from sub torp hits). Also, several Oscar, Betty, & Nick fighter squadrons are also shuttling to Truk, in preparation for new bases in the New Hebrides area. Hopefully these units will allow me to either gain air superiority over Noumea and take the island, or at least allow me to beat up the Allies before evacuating. We'll see.

Amphibious forces on the way to finish off Koepang and secure my DEI flank, which is not as strong as I'd like- and i do see an Australian buildup at Broome & Darwin.

Allies are trying to counter my moves by landing at Ndeni & Efate (paratroopers), but I do have the KB and a few BB's coming. He has 1,000 AV at Noumea, 2 divisions, 2 regiments, tanks & support. Two American CV's (probably last left alive) were sighted July 13th near Midway trying to destroy one of my resupply convoys. Fortunately my guys have escaped, including the CV Hiryu that was nearby hoping to ambush a US bombardment fleet headed towards Midway (but now 2 CV's were sighted with it so I backed away). The CV HIryu will probably head to join the 4 carrier, KB. CVL Shoho also on the way after repairs at Yokohoma.

Lastly, I paid out almost all of my 6,000+ political points on the Manchukuo units i converged on Changsha. My opponent and I discussed, even though we did not have any House Rules, that it was fair for me to pay the political points. I agreed, and told him I'd had the points for a long time so I had not accrued some unfair advantage in moving those troops there. I don't want to be "gamey" but keep a good challenging fair campaign going. More news to come...

American CV's (possibly 2) are spotted by subs returning to PH. Midway resupply goes on. The KB is only 1-2 turns away from interdicting allied supply to Noumea (between Noumea and Fiji that is). More troop convoys with base forces and engineers en route. A surface TF of the Yamato and some cruisers is on the way to bombard the American landings at Ndeni and Efate (both port size 1 and airfield 0 still). One of those islands will be the link between Rabaul- Tulagi- Base - Koumac- La Foa. I think once i have a strong air base out of easy escort range from Noumea, i can get local naval superiority and enough CAP to get my convoys in.

I attached a snapshot of my production and resources as of now-- keep in mind, you are talking to a player who has never gotten this far as the Japanese. I think i may have made some mistakes to be corrected there.

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net I attached a snapshot of my production and resources as of now-- keep in mind, you are talking to a player who has never gotten this far as the Japanese. I think i may have made some mistakes to be corrected there.

Judging by your numbers, it doesn't look TOO bad. Your Veh points (and production) are low, but Arm looks fine. I'm concerned by your Oil and Fuel levels, but my reference point is Scenario 2 (and I can't remember if you're playing 1 or 2). Your aircraft production looks a little low, but hard to tell from that screen.

That's just from what's on the screen there, though. Do you really have enormous NavSY and MerchSY points in the pools? Wowzer. I've never been past 1/1/43 as Japan (against the AI), and I hear that you'll want merchant points built up for later, but why not use those Nav points?

On-topic, I think your approach to salvaging New Caledonia is on the right track. How is the supply situation on the island now?

Ok rookie confession- I don't really understand what it means to have too many shipyard points for my Navy and Merchants. Does that mean i should cancel more ships? Or turn shipyards off to save resources? Confused as to the best solution there.

This is scenario 1. The fuel is a problem. I've got half the Japanese fleet rushing troops to Truk and the Noumea area. Enough is coming from the DEI direct to Truk to sustain this major operation but I could have managed the gas better.

The aircraft production looks lower than it is-- this snapshot shows by city, not total by aircraft. Also A6M3 Zero production about to shoot up to 90, and I've got 330 A6M2 Zeroes in the pool. Basically focusing on Oscars, Zeroes, Nick's, Betty's, Kate's and Val's for combat aircraft.

There's at least 75,000 supply on Caledonia, and 100k on ships at Truk. Also each new convoy is carrying its own supply for the smaller island chain buildups between Rabaul and Noumea. So we've got time fortunately.

Ok rookie confession- I don't really understand what it means to have too many shipyard points for my Navy and Merchants. Does that mean i should cancel more ships? Or turn shipyards off to save resources? Confused as to the best solution there.

This is scenario 1. The fuel is a problem. I've got half the Japanese fleet rushing troops to Truk and the Noumea area. Enough is coming from the DEI direct to Truk to sustain this major operation but I could have managed the gas better.

The aircraft production looks lower than it is-- this snapshot shows by city, not total by aircraft. Also A6M3 Zero production about to shoot up to 90, and I've got 330 A6M2 Zeroes in the pool. Basically focusing on Oscars, Zeroes, Nick's, Betty's, Kate's and Val's for combat aircraft.

There's at least 75,000 supply on Caledonia, and 100k on ships at Truk. Also each new convoy is carrying its own supply for the smaller island chain buildups between Rabaul and Noumea. So we've got time fortunately.

I don't want to go off-topic from Caledonia too much, but since a PBEM grand campaign represents such a significant investment of time:

I just meant that you have 30,000-some naval shipyard points in your pool, and 60,000-some merchant points (it's basically like HI - you build it with the shipyards, and it's used up by the ships under production). This means that you are effectively overbuilding each turn and storing the production for later. I've heard that this is good to do for late war for merchant shipping, when you won't be able to keep up with your needs. With that kind of pool of NavSY points, you should be able to accelerate all of your Unryu CVs and then some!

I don't know exactly what the difference is between scen 1 and scen 2 on Oil/Fuel. In Tracker, how much does your global oil/fuel level change each turn, on average? With 3229 Refineries going, your oil should be dropping somewhere around (32290 - 27250) per turn, or about 5040 per turn, yes? That's only 410 more days of refining at full capacity, or until September 1, 1943. Assuming you lose no oil production between now and then. Are there other sources of oil you might be able to grab (Magwe, vulnerable as it is, or northern China)?

On the bottom-right of that industry screen, there is Aircraft Engines: 412 + (81 -rd) and Aircraft Assembly: 458 + (10 - rd). That is what I was looking at for your aircraft production. What do your aircraft pools look like? Of course it depends on how much you lose, but later in the war you're going to lose a lot more as the Allied fighters get better. Your numbers raise my eyebrows a little because my aircraft production targets total around 750 in mid- to late-1942, with the number of engines necessary to support it as well as building up some engines in the pool for the R&D bonus.

And I must add a disclaimer that I've never played a PBEM grand campaign, and there are others on here with a far deeper background on IJ production than I. I hope they can expand on (and, I'm sure, correct some of) my advice.

The aircraft production looks lower than it is-- this snapshot shows by city, not total by aircraft. Also A6M3 Zero production about to shoot up to 90, and I've got 330 A6M2 Zeroes in the pool. Basically focusing on Oscars, Zeroes, Nick's, Betty's, Kate's and Val's for combat aircraft.

Lee,

You know that A6M3 aircraft are not carrier capable, right? It's the A6M3a that is the follow-on to the A6M2 for your carriers. Many Japanese players build A6M3 in moderation or not at all, pending the arrival of the A6M3a.

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna Do you really have enormous NavSY and MerchSY points in the pools? Wowzer. I've never been past 1/1/43 as Japan (against the AI), and I hear that you'll want merchant points built up for later, but why not use those Nav points?

Indeed. You can probably halt additional merchant SY production for now and use what you've saved. This will save you some HI to bank for other more pertinent uses.

The large number of Naval SY points saved suggests that you haven't accelerated any (or very few) ships in your build cue. True? You may want to look that over and consider getting some useful CV, DD and E classes whilest they'll still do you some good. Getting the Unryu class CVs in late 1944-1945 will make them less useful for your struggle in the interim.

1. Turn off Merchant SY for now, and maybe forever. Barring massive losses, Japan doesn't need to build alot of merchant ships (counterintuitive, I know, but there it is)

2. Naval SY: ACCELERATE some ships; it's a bit late to start, but I would Accelerate TAIHO, and the first 3 UNRYUs. You can still get them in fall of 1943.

3. VEHICLES: You need more Vehicle factories than that; expand at least another 50 or so

4. Can't see if you have Port Moresby, but I would set-up a seaplane base at Rossel Is or Milne Bay, to watch in that direction.

The PARA landings at Ndeni and Efate are gifts to the emperor; start prepping a couple units, but you should be able to wipe them out. They are very light units, if they are the Marine Paras, which they have to be. Where were they dropped from anyway; Suva? Or Noumea?

BONUS: Occupy Luganville ASAP; anything will do, but just put some bodies there. With the IJN around, he can't do anything about it, but you need to occupy. I would get a base force there, and build an airstrip.

In Scen 1 you should be able to accelerate all destroyers available for acceleration at any one time as well as the first three Unryu class CV's. If they are accelerated you should get them around the same time as the Essexes are coming online. Once the Musashi is done you can look into accelerating some of the light cruisers as well. Cancel the Shinano as its an enormous amount of HI for a pretty bad carrier. Look into accelerating some CVE as well as they use merchant build points and you have a ridiculous amount of them.

Further shipyard things off the top of my head: -You should probably cancel the RO-100 series submarines, they are 24 build points and have only 4 TT tubes, 4k range and 14kts max speed. Not even slightly worth it. -Cancel the 3 build point xAKLs in your que, they are totally useless. -Cancel the late war CVEs. They only carry 8 planes, so are no good at all. -SST classes are mostly not worth it, consider cancellation. -Convert your STD-A, B and C xAK's to tankers, you always need more tankers. -The two CLAA conversions are totally worth it, IJN CL's are pretty useless and cant even take on modern allied destroyers 1:1. -Consider converting the CS to CVL in november, make sure to have the airgroups aboard when you do as some of them change from floatplane groups to Fighter/DB groups.

I have the 56th SNLF on the way to Luganville now, should be there in 5 turns on barges from Koumac (a desparate move, they are basically paddling canoes across the Pacific to get there ASAP). I also have several engineers, construction units and base forces also on the way to Luganville, with protection from the KB. Luganville will be a formidable base and capable of supporting operations against any Allied threats to my supply lines from Truk down to Caledonia.

This is fantastic advice on productions and shipyards. Thank you Saros, Chickenboy, Lokasenna and Q-Ball. The A6M3 I am producing even though not carrier capable because I have a decent amount of off-carrier Zero squadrons. I would love to get the A6M3(a)'s as soon as possible for my KB. I am also sending the rest of the CVL's and the Hiryu down to the Caledonia area as well, to allow one of the KB CV's out for upgrading at a time.

I have the 56th SNLF on the way to Luganville now, should be there in 5 turns on barges from Koumac (a desparate move, they are basically paddling canoes across the Pacific to get there ASAP). I also have several engineers, construction units and base forces also on the way to Luganville, with protection from the KB. Luganville will be a formidable base and capable of supporting operations against any Allied threats to my supply lines from Truk down to Caledonia.

This is fantastic advice on productions and shipyards. Thank you Saros, Chickenboy, Lokasenna and Q-Ball. The A6M3 I am producing even though not carrier capable because I have a decent amount of off-carrier Zero squadrons. I would love to get the A6M3(a)'s as soon as possible for my KB. I am also sending the rest of the CVL's and the Hiryu down to the Caledonia area as well, to allow one of the KB CV's out for upgrading at a time.

Quick question: how does one paddle barges that far? The big ones only have a range of 3 hexes IIRC, so do you stick some big ships in with them to refuel them (can they even do that?)?

Trick is to rebase to destination... 1st turn they will consume all fuel and then they will just move 2 hexes per turn, acruing damage in the process... damage accumulation is relatively slow, so 5 turns is feasible

Trick is to rebase to destination... 1st turn they will consume all fuel and then they will just move 2 hexes per turn, acruing damage in the process... damage accumulation is relatively slow, so 5 turns is feasible

And when they arrive you clearly just return to pool or scuttle or something, right? Heh. I should do this.

Working on the production/resource changes as suggested. Here is a screenshot of the brave paddle boats, canoes, driftwood swimmers, call 'em what you want. They are bravely rushing to secure Luganville, the main base i'll need to support either taking Noumea or leaving it.

As for Caledonia, fortunately this is New Caledonia so i can leave the McTranslator behind :)

Already an AK on the way to help the barges. They hopefully will make it to the beach at Luganville just as the paddlers are swimming in their own boat.

Reinforcements coming from the DEI and a regiment on the way to finish off Koepang and secure the Australian flank. I have been digging in like crazy all around the Empire, i think by the end of 1942 i will have a decent ring of Fort 6 islands and bases around the whole thing. Then to work on a second ring to support the outer layer- as my opponent can probably pick and choose where to mass and surprise the IJ forces.

Well, the paddle boat barges are almost to Luganville! 2 more hexes, and a refueling AK is close by. Another convoy of about a dozen paddle boats on the way to Tanna however was discovered by 36 SB Dauntlesses out of Noumea and sunk. Well, they were the distraction really-- I was desparate to get ground troops on to Luganville before he did.

As Q-ball mentioned, I think the Allied landings at Ndeni and Efate are gifts to the Emperor. Ndeni has about 6,000 men in 3 units, possibly a regiment, base force and tank unit. They were just bombarded by a BB and some cruisers and some dive bombers from the KB. The port size 1 is already at 68 damage and several PBY Catalinas were damaged. I think I can put Ndeni "out of commission" and prep to destroy it. Efate has Marine paras and probably not much else.

These two vulnerable Allied bases, Ndeni & Efate, do raise a question-- should I take the bird in the hand, annihilate Ndeni & Efate, and evacuate New Caledonia? Or concentrate all on New Caledonia, where La Foa is rapidly building up to Airfield size 2 and port 2 soon. I have several squadrons of Oscars, A63M Zeroes ready at Truk and Rabaul to fly in en masse. I think its possible to get sucked into a war of attrition over New Caledonia, similar to Guadacanal historically. But then again I might be able to mass overwhelming force at least on sea and air, and eventually land. We'll see soon enough!

CHANGSHA: On an important side note, my artillery seems to be knocking off 15 AV from the Changsha garrison. Their adjusted combat value has declined each turn, 1702 down to 1687, down to 1672 AV, etc etc. I can muster about 5,000 AV- but I think i may just try to bombard the Chinese at Changsha down to 1,000 before deliberately attacking again.

3:1 at Changsha will be enough even if it is expensive. The terrain is only 2x. Make sure to move the relevant corps HQ's there to improve your attack odds and grind the defenders into dust.

A war of attrition over New Caledonia is pretty much exactly what you want right now. As you control the seas he will struggle to reinforce and resupply and he cant use his best weapon, 4E bombers, as they are extremely vulnerable to shore bombardment due to their high service ratings and limited replacements. It gives you a chance to attrit the allied fleet and airforce under favorable terms, you'll never get another chance this good.

Ndeni and Efate are literally zero threat (other than recon activity) until they reach level 2. At that point he can base SBD's (if he has aviation support). The 5400 men at Ndeni are even less supportable for the Allies than are their boys of Noumea.

Having lived through the defense of Noumea from the Allied side, it is evident that Saros is correct. The problem is that you are behind the curve a bit from a logistical support standpoint, but you seem to have carrier superiority so that can be rectified. Tanna is useful as a base to seal off Noumea even when the carriers are not about.

Yes looks like Changsha is just a matter of time. Then i can attack some other key resource cities in China and roll him up a bit.

And around New Caledonia, its feeling "fun"- -usually a good sign for one's strategic and tactical position. I am not yet sure i can take Noumea, but i do think that his troops and ships outside of Noumea are fair game and very vulnerable.

It should only be a week or two before i have decent air bases and ports around the Caledonia islands, and La Foa could be a strong base as well. My opponent may be convinced i'm evacuating, because i withdrew the IJ Infantry from Noumea back to La Foa. I also shuttled some units back towards Koumac, so it does look like a retreat. He thought my barges were evacuating troops, as opposed to in my mind securing the supply chain at Luganville. My opponent may be sighing relief-- "Noumea is safe, I snuck another American division in, he can't land troops without ports or air cover, so I [the Allies] am ok for now". The problem for him is how long this Caledonia campaign goes on and how many resources he wants to throw in past the KB Gauntlet. I think i can beat him up in this area for another 6 months before its time to stay or go.

On an important side note, the two American CV's were again spotted bombing Midway for target practice. They are far from causing me trouble down south...

Against the AI I did successfully create a trap for the IJ forces at Noumea, but I think the overall situation was very different.

I'd be salivating at the prospect of destroying so many good allied troops, plus the ships and aircraft in the area around here.

Unless he commits his carriers, you will win the sea battle. (Even if he does I think you will still win it) You with the sea battle those troops will die in place (or on evac transports which is arguably better for you)

An interesting twist-- my Allied opponent seems to think I am weak outside Noumea and on the way out. His forces are on the move! Who is the predator and who is the prey?

As Japanese forces stream in towards Luganville & New Caledonia to reinforce and create a supply chain from Rabaul, my opponent has bombarded La Foa with a fleet of 4 BB's and a half a dozen cruisers. This bombardment fleet may be coming straight out of Noumea, Oz, or Fiji. American troops are also apparently sallying from Noumea, in what strength I am not sure. Last I know he had 1,000 AV in Noumea, enough to deter my first assault. But he does not have enough to push me off the island.

As you can see from the attached map, the dark green allied infantry from Noumea appears to be moving on La Foa, as the Japanese also appear to be retreating all along New Caledonia towards Koumac. But this is a feigned withdrawal, in fact there is 1,100 AV at La Foa and the Imperial Guards division at 400 AV resting and refitting one hex away. Support units have been moving back and forth to fake the retreat. He also thinks my paddle boats racing around are evacuating troops, when in fact they are being used to take the surrounding islands like Luganville and next turn Tanna.

The short term tactical dilemma is how can I punish his fleet of 4 BB's, which is still protected by Noumea's substantial Allied fighters. I do not want to waste the KB's fighters in an attrition battle like that, so I have more army air squadrons on the way from Truk and Rabaul to try and either 1) gain air superiority or 2) get enough force in to protect my transports delivering or evacuating troops in the area. Part 2 i think i can do for sure, and hopefully protect bombardment ships that i may move in to pummel Noumea's airfield. The invasion forces for his islands of Ndeni and Efate are also on the way.

Its actually been encouraging how fast the buildup can occur from Rabaul to New Caledonia. Even if I don't take Noumea, its gonna be a real bear for the Allies to retake all these strong islands which are going to be much stronger than they were historically. Also, anything he tries to build up, like Efate & Ndeni, are as one commenter noted: "gifts to the Emperor." His strength is in Noumea, the rest is too weak if i concentrate on it.

On a side note, he is building up a base north of Darwin at Bayar that i discovered. I will have to start blasting that to bits and keep him from skipping the Rabaul theater and trying a run "up the middle" from Darwin to Davao....