Archives for August 2016

Other than a very slight new low, followed by a small rally that barely reached our initial confirmation point, this had been quite an uneventful day for the euro.
Given this development (or lack thereof) and the fact that momentum is still consistently rising, our main count remains exactly the same, with only a minor modification to the targets.
We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
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As expected the euro moved towards the downside and passed our confirmation point, although it hasn't yet reached our targets.
Considering the sloping look of this decline, I must say the pattern doesn't look as impulsive as I had hoped it'd turn out, and it's very difficult to count it in 5 waves (although it's technically possible). Momentum is also steadily rising, which isn't something you want to see in a third wave down. At the same time, the current main count has merits when considering the larger degree wave structure, so I don't want to discount it prematurely.
In short, we're going to follow the main count for a few more days with a very critical eye. At the first sign of invalidation, we'll immediately switch to the alternate count, which suggests a corrective structure is unfolding.
We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Note: I apologize for my delay in publishing today's count, as I've been struggling with a moderate fever and under heavy medications.Read More

According to the main count, Cable spent Tuesday`s session forming a flat correction which is commonly characterized by being a shallow sideways movement.
Main count expects Cable to unfold downwards to complete a second wave correction while the alternate count expects that Cable`s downwards correction is complete and that a third wave is at its early stages.
As always we will wait for either count`s confirmation to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
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Cable unfolded as expected and first target was reached and exceeded. We are updating the main count according to the latest price action and the main count expects Cable to continue lower to complete a second wave before reversing directions and moving towards the upside within a third wave.
The alternate count expects that Cable`s downwards correction is complete and that a third wave is at its early stages.
As always we will wait for either count`s confirmation to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
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While the euro did make a new low as expected, most of the price movement during the day had been sideways, and our targets on the downside are yet to be met.
This suggests that what we have here are the first two sub-waves of an extending downwards movement, which is fairly typical considering the wave position we expect to be in at this point.
We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
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Cable started the day by unfolding upwards confirming the main count before reversing directions and targets are yet to be met.
The recent movement suggests that wave ii orange has more to offer downwards before Cable resumes its upwards movement.
The main count expects Cable to dip lower to complete a second wave before reversing directions and moving towards the upside within a third wave.
The alternate count expects that Cable`s downwards correction is complete and that a third wave is at its early stages.
As always we will wait for either count`s confirmation to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
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As expected the euro moved towards the downside, printing a decline of nearly 200 pips, and passing the primary confirmation point by over 50 pips.

Neither target has been reached just yet, but they weren’t actually expected to be reached this soon anyway. If the main count is indeed correct, then this is only a very early phase in what will be several months of decline.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Within it, green wave (a) is forming an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.

This count expects the euro to be moving towards the downside in pink wave y to complete blue wave D. This will be largely confirmed by movement below 1.1234.

At 1.0931 pink wave y would reach 61.8% the length of pink wave w, then at 1.0662 it would reach 100% the length of blue wave B.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1366 as orange wave ii may not move beyond the start of orange wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0525 as blue wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the start of blue wave C.

Within it, green waves (w), first (x), and (y) are complete, and the second green wave (x) may or may not be complete.

This count expects the euro soon to move towards the upside in green wave (z) to complete pink wave x. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1366.

At 1.1366 green wave (z) would reach the high of green wave (y), then at 1.1466 pink wave x would retrace 78.6% of pink wave w.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1616 as pink wave x of a double zigzag may not move beyond the start of pink wave w. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0952 as it’s virtually unheard of for a second green wave (x) to move beyond the end of the first green wave (x) in a triple zigzag.

It was a fairly "mixed-bag" type of day for the Euro, making it an interesting end for an otherwise slow week.
The drama began with price's moving above the short-term invalidation point, indicating that the fourth wave of the leading diagonal had been still unfolding. Then within the span of less than an hour, the market dropped to complete the fifth wave, then immediately reversed to retrace three quarters of the entire diagonal extremely quickly. After that, the market dropped over 150 pips in what should be a clear third-wave impulse.
This counts suffers from one annoying point, which is that, even though the upwards correction of the diagonal was exactly as deep as one would expect, it was extremely (even suspiciously) quick and swift when compared to the time it took for the diagonal itself to develop. In fact, I had to drill down into 5-minute and 1-minute charts to confirm the subdivisions of the entire count (which, to be fair, look very clear and analytically satisfying at this level of detail). Other than that, everything looks right about what you would expect in a first wave within an A-wave of a zigzag.
We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
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Cable unfolded in a sideways manner and locked within a tight range leaving both counts valid.
However, the recent sideways movement decreases the probabilities of a fifth wave -wave 5 purple- within wave iii orange being underway as the time relationships does not provide the best fit.
Therefore, we are slightly modifying the main count, the direction remains the same, the change is in the extent of the coming movement.
As well we are updating the alternate count which expects Cable to reverse directions and unfold downwards within a third wave of sub-minuette degree.
As always we will wait for either count`s confirmation to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
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As expected the euro moved towards the upside, reached our first target, and came less than 1 pip short of our second target.
So far the diagonal count is unfolding very nicely. It's quite possible that its fourth wave may develop into a more complex correction, but since it's already met all the criteria for a complete simple correction, it's logical to build on the information the market has already given us.
We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
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