Archive for March 2012

Another RedC poll came out earlier this week, this time commissioned by Paddy Power. You’ll probably have read the details already if you follow me on Twitter so I won’t be poring over the details in micro, but I’ve just got around to the seat projections this morning, and so here they are….

Projected result

%

seats

FG

35.00%

71

LP

16.00%

31

FF

15.00%

13

SF

14.00%

23

ULA

3.07%

5

GP

1.85%

0

OTH

15.08%

23

100.00%

166

As before, they’ve not broken down GP/ULA/OTH, which limits the accuracy of my projections. I’ve again taken GP at GE levels, and ULA as the same proportion of ULA/OTH as at the GE, but would really prefer if I had the actual data. But there you go.

FG of course will be well pleased with this, particularly as it comes before, rather than after, the expected post-Ard Fheis bounce parties generally receive, putting them just a wee bit below what they received in the GE. Anti-FF sentiment resulting from Mahon, and the China trip, can both be expected to have given them a bit of a lift.

LP will be similarly pleased, and the panic that gripped some when B&A starting polling should be receding somewhat. The Government is making difficult/unpopular/unfair (delete according to your views) decisions, and yet they are holding steady enough – not as high as the GE, but now, for the first time in a while, are the 2nd largest party in first preferences, and looking good to hold most of their seats, and indeed competitive enough for a gain here and there from FF.

FF may in fact be relieved this isn’t worse, given Mahon, but in reality, most of that was probably priced into their support level as it was. If anything, they may have dropped a point or so in the Dublin area among those who still regard the Anoraked-one highly. It’s noticeable that as they drop into the mid-teens, a lot of their seats come into play, and they should still be quite twitchy. If another party on the centre-right/right emerges in the next year or so, they may sink closer to oblivion.

SF may be disappointed by this one, although it’s not too far south of what they are normally getting. It may be that their position on the Household Charge (basically, as far as I can make out, “we’re not paying, but we’re not encouraging anyone else not to”) is confusing their supporters, and not as simple as the outright call to arms of the ULA on this matter. Certainly the surge for OTH is likely to include some movement from SF to ULA, I suspect. But I’m dubious that this will be a long-term problem for them, particularly if the ULA tactic ends in tears for some voters, as it may well do (a consideration I suspect informed the SF position).

Well, after a flurry of giddy excitement following last week’s B&A poll with the Sunday Times, another poll has come out from a company with a track record, and, as I suggested at the time on Twitter, it continues to show B&A to be well out of line with all the big boys, particularly with in respect of SF and LP. Last week, B&A were arguing SF were 2.5 times LP’s support. This week, RedC are reporting them as within the margin of error of one another. Given the record of them and the other top-3, and given RedC under-estimated LP by 2.5% in their final pre-election poll last year (and over-estimated SF by 2.1%), B&A’s findings look implausible, to say the least.

Anyway, enough of dissing B&A, what do tonight’s figures tell us? The following are the party standings, with the IPR projections in brackets (I’ve had to assume GP, ULA and OTH as they’re not broken down, basically GP at GE levels, ULA and OTH increasing at the same pro-rata rate. If you don’t like those assumptions, take it up with the people commissioning the polls, as they tell RedC et al what parties they want tested).

FG (nc)

30%

59

LP (+2)

16%

31

FF (-1)

17%

22

SF (+1)

18%

27

ULA

3%

5

GP

2%

0

OTH

14%

22

So, not much to see here. SF are doing well, but not in the crazy territory previously reported. I suspect their strategists will be happier to see steady growth in a reliable poll than 25% in one of lesser reliability. Some might think they’ll have been damaged subsequently by the ‘inkgate’ business, but I suspect, jokes aside, it’ll do them little harm. FG seem to be steady enough, staying in the 30s (just) and I think they are unlikely to budge too far from there in the near future. LP will be pleased enough to be reported up 2%, although it’s still down on the GE. And FF will be worried, as I understand this poll was taken before O’Cuiv broke ranks over the Fiscal Pact Treaty, and yet has them down (albeit by 1%).

Speaking of which, the same poll shows (perhaps surprisingly) some movement in favour of the Treaty. We are told that in reply to the question “How do you think you would currently vote in such a referendum?”, the figures were;

“Yes: 60% (+7% on Jan 29 Red C poll)

No: 40% (-7% on Jan 29 Red C poll)

Figure excludes ‘don’t knows’ (26%)”

Far too early to call. But if you’d asked me yesterday to call it, I would have said it was facing defeat. The fact that this shows a trend in the opposite direction…. I don’t know, but if pushed I’d say it’s 50/50, and will depend on the quality of the campaigns.