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Nuclear Weapon Issues in the 21 st Century – Conference Review and the Future Pierce S. Corden, Visiting Scholar Center for Science, Technology and Security Policy American Association for the Advancement of Science 3 November 2013

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7 Issues for the Future Global stability Understanding what “proliferation” means The moving baseline Starting from 1945 What is the current situation? Which way will the vector point? The role of nuclear energy The role of international governance

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10 The Moving Baseline The number of states changes over time The number of acknowledged possessors of nuclear weapons changes The number of states with latent capabilities changes The role of non-state actors changes The international political “matrix” evolves The “big” problems: continuity and change

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12 The Current Situation The world has come close to nuclear catastrophe more than once From the standpoint of net proliferation, the 1960s - 80s represent the maximum risk to date From the standpoint of proliferation “horizontally”, the situation has fluctuated, but is somewhat worse today From the standpoint of proliferation “vertically”, the situation is mixed From the standpoint of non-state actors, the picture is unclear

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13 Thinking about the Future The US and RF are sharply down, from a very high level The UK and France are somewhat down, from a high level China is somewhat up from a high level India and Pakistan are sharply up from a low level North Korea is roughly neutral from a low level, but the direction of movement is uncertain The net vector is sharply down

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The Take-Away Nuclear weapons are ultimately problematic. Nuclear weapons are fundamentally destabilizing. With good reason, the international community is nearly unanimous in a determination to eliminate them.