San Antonio congressional race draws national attention

Results of the Democratic primary in a San Antonio-based congressional district will shape the November battle between major political parties seeking control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

As voters prepare to go to the polls next Tuesday, national attention in Texas is focused on the pivotal 23rd Congressional District.

The winner of a three-way primary between Ciro Rodriguez, Pete Gallego and John Bustamante will become the Democrat’s best hope to unseat Republican Rep. Francisco “Quico” Canseco with strong GOP backing this fall.

“This is a must win race for Democrats. The stakes are very high,” said David Wasserman, a political analyst with The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan newsletter.

The GOP won control of the House two years ago on a wave of tea party support and voter angst over the economic downturn.

Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Dallas, who heads the National Republican Congressional Committee, said GOP will expand on its majority in this election cycle.

Although the economic malaise continues to exist, Democratic leaders say their goal to erase a 25-seat deficit to win back control of the House is within reach.

And the plans by both parties hinge on several dozen congressional seats nationally – including Texas 23, a “swing” district that stretches from San Antonio to El Paso and contains nearly equal numbers of Republican and Democratic voters.

Regardless of who wins the Democratic primary, The Cook Political Report handicaps the November race in Texas 23 as a “toss up.”

“This district as been a political football for some time,” Wasserman said.

Texas will gain four new congressional seats because of an increase in population growth documented in the decennial census. The delegation will grow from 32 to 36 seats.

Three of the four new seats are heavily Democratic, in the Rio Grande Valley, San Antonio/Austin and Dallas/Fort Worth. A fourth was drawn with a Republican majority of voters outside Houston.

Through redistricting, Republicans also are expected to win an Austin seat currently held by Democrat Rep. Lloyd Doggett, who has jumped to the newly drawn seat that includes San Antonio.

The result of redistricting is basically a wash.

“Essentially, the map just adds two new Republicans and three new Democrats. Anything that is a wash is good for Republicans,” said Kyle Kondik, a House race analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

The result of redistricting also elevates the importance, nationally, of Texas 23, held a Canseco, a freshman lawmaker and former banker who eked out a win in 2010 with less than 50 percent of the vote.

“Democrats definitely need to win Texas 23 if they are going to pick up the majority,” Kondik said.
Rodriguez lost the seat to Canseco two years ago and wants a rematch.

But Rodriguez is mired in a close race with Gallego, a popular state representative from Alpine and the favorite of the Democratic establishment that financially supports his campaign.

Patent lawyer Bustamante, son of former U.S. Rep. Albert Bustamante, D-San Antonio, who represented the district in the 1980s and 90s, is also seeking the Democratic nomination.

The race tightened in the closing weeks, said Larry Hufford, a professor at St. Mary’s University in San Antonio.

“It certainly could go either way. It depends on turnout and where the turnout is,” Hufford said.
Rodriguez’s strength is San Antonio and Eagle Pass; Gallego’s is in the western reaches of the district that he has represented in the state House for over 20 years.

Hufford would not rule out a runoff. “The wild card is Bustamante.”

A runoff could hurt Democrats, Hufford said, forcing a costly drawn-out primary race instead of allowing a winner to focus on the general election battle expected to draw muscle from the political parties and special interest cash.

Already, the League of Conservation Voters, which endorsed Gallego, attacked Rodriguez with $200,000 in TV and direct mail advertising over 2009 vote against an energy policy bill backed by Democratic leaders.

And both the NRCC and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have made the race a priority, with weekly media attacks by the GOP on Rodriguez and Gallego and DCCC darts at Canseco.

Wasserman said spending by the national parties on the fall election “will be in the millions and out of the candidates’ control.”