To some legislators' consternation but to no one's real surprise, Lebanon's parliamentary elections have been delayed yet again for at least three months. On April 12, the day before parliament was scheduled to meet, President Michel Aoun
invoked Article 59 of the Lebanese Constitution, which allows him to
postpone a parliamentary session for one month. He may do so once during
the legislative term. Speaker Nabih Berri had called for the session to discuss extending parliament’s term, as members failed to agree on a new electoral law before a constitutional deadline expired.
Aoun wants a new law implemented before elections are held for
parliament, whose term ends June 21. He doesn't want the legislature to extend its own term
without elections, which he considers illegal, but he also doesn't want
a legislative vacuum. However, the constitution requires that voters be
given 90 days to prepare for an election, so — because of repeated
delays — one now can't be scheduled before August at the earliest. In a televised speech, Aoun addressed the Lebanese people, saying, “I
have warned repeatedly against the extension since it is
unconstitutional and will definitely not be the path toward the recovery
of the government and its authorities and institutions on a sound
constitutional basis.”

Minutes after Aoun announced his decision, Berri set another session for May
15. In the meantime, Lebanese political forces continue their quest to
agree on an electoral law by then. Simon Abi Ramia, a member of
parliament's Change and Reform bloc, told Al-Monitor that despite
differences between the parties, political forces seek to agree on a new
electoral law and his political bloc will strive to prevent a
parliamentary extension by all means. Aoun wants to replace the contested 1960 Electoral Law,
which is based on a majoritarian (winner-take-all) district electoral
system with limited exceptions. That law allows Muslim leaders to select
Christian parliament members in some constituencies. Aoun, a Maronite
Christian, along with Hezbollah
and the Amal Movement, are insisting on a "total proportionality"
system, while others want either a hybrid law or the majoritarian
system.

On the eve of April 13, the date set for the session to discuss the
extension, the specter of civil war came back to haunt the Lebanese amid
a sharp division of political forces and a serious threat by Christian political forces to take to the streets to prevent the session. They threatened to block the roads to prevent legislators from even reaching parliament.

The mounting tension might have escalated into a sectarian rift in the country if Aoun hadn't moved to contain the situation.

Adel Yamin, a constitutional expert and law professor at Lebanese
University in Beirut, noted that the April 13 parliament session would
have coincided with the anniversary of the outbreak of the Lebanese war.
"Aoun defused political and popular tension that risked turning into a
sectarian division," he told Al-Monitor.

But what if parliament fails to pass a new electoral law? And what
if, during the May 15 session, it approves the urgent draft law
submitted by member Nicolas Fattoush to extend parliament’s term for an
additional year? Does the president have other constitutional cards up
his sleeve?

Yamin said Aoun has several options.

Aoun may address a letter to the parliament urging it to reject the
extension and approve a new electoral law that takes into account the
requirements of the constitution and the 1943 National Pact. Parliament would then have to consider the letter within three days and take action.

Yamin noted that to consider the extension draft bill,
parliament would need a quorum, which is the attendance of at least 65
of the 128 members. The proposal would then need a majority of the
members present to pass. If parliament were to approve the
extension, Aoun could ask — one time only — for parliament to
reconsider the draft within five days. Then, to pass, the reconsidered
draft law would need an absolute majority: 65 of the 128 members.

Yamin explained that if parliament passes the extension draft law,
Aoun will have the right to appeal before the Constitutional
Council within 15 days after the law is published in the Official
Gazette. The council has the option to void the law, and its decision is
final.

If the parliament’s term expires without any consensus being reached
on the new electoral law, Aoun — with the assent of the prime minister
and the minister of the interior and municipalities — can hold an
election based on the amended law of 1960 at least 90 days after the decree is published, despite the vacuum it would create, Yamin added.

The parliamentary elections situation has hit a new low amid the threats of protests,
in particular by the Christian political forces objecting to the
extension. But Yamin noted that the environment gives the president
another option: Go directly to the voters and ask them to express their
opposition to parliament's attempt, as he sees it, to violate the
constitution and control the state by an extension.

Lebanon's last parliamentary elections were held in 2009. After a
four-year term during which they couldn't agree on the electoral law,
they voted to extend their term for 17 months. Another extension in 2014
has kept them in office until this year.

Josephine Deeb is a presenter on
OTV's morning political show "Hiwar al-Yom" and a field correspondent
for the station's news bulletin. She has done field reports on Syria,
Libya, Egypt, Iraq and Lebanon. She also worked as a field correspondent
for Al-Jadeed TV.