Opinion Contributor

Prosperity is not just around the corner

The continued sluggishness in Friday’s employment report underscores the fragility of the recovery from the 2007-2009 recession, skepticism about the present course of economic policy, and the need to reorient policy toward long-run growth and accompanying job creation. In that regard, the mediocre employment report is joined by last week’s release of the Legatum Institute’s Global Prosperity Index, which dropped the United States from the top ten of the world’s most prosperous nations, citing economic declines over the past four years.

The weakness in the job market reflects sub-par economic growth and headwinds from uncertainty over tax policy, health care reform, and regulation. This weakness continues to surprise administration policymakers, who have since the beginning of the administration predicted a vigorous typical recovery in two years, a hockey-stick prediction that slides a year with each passing weak year.

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Nor is the economy improving. Real GDP growth in 2012 thus far is lower than in 2011 - and growth in 2011, in turn, was lower than in 2010. The payroll survey in the jobs report disappoints, too; job growth isn’t more rapid in 2012 than in 2011. While the unemployment rate has declined this year, much of the drop traces to the fall in the labor force participation. Without that fall, the Congressional Budget Office tells us the rate of unemployment would be 9 percent. And forecasts for economic growth in 2012 by the Federal Open Market Committee declined over 2011 and most of 2012. Prosperity around the corner is the watchword neither of incoming data nor forecasts.

Concerns over joblessness are not just national statistics. The ‘swing states’ of Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, and Ohio all have higher rates of unemployment than four years ago, and the first five have higher unemployment rates today than the national average. And since May, the numbers of people employed in Ohio has fallen by 33,000. Employment in Colorado has declined by 17,000 since March, and in Iowa by 28,000 since April.

This failure to launch is costly to Americans. Compared to the more optimistic projection offered in the administration’s FY 2010 Midsession Review of the Budget, the cumulative GDP loss translates into an income gap of about $5,400 per household. The same comparison can be drawn between the struggling recovery from the 2007-2009 recession and the more vigorous recovery from the deep 1981-1982 recession. Benchmarking the 13 quarters since the end of each recession yields a cumulative gap in income per household of about $28,000. Accumulated over time, weak recoveries are devastating for family incomes as well as for employment.

The weakened employment outlook also figures in the United States dropping out of the top ten nations in the Legatum Institute’s Global Prosperity Index. While any such ranking has merits and potential drawbacks, the logic outlined in the Institute’s report offers a sobering message for policymakers struggling both to reinvigorate the nation’s recovery, and to advance growth in household living standards.

How about this: He's Mitt Romney's economic advisor. It's the last day of the campaign. Hard to avoid those facts. His opinions on the other hand are certainly worth discussing. It's a moot point at this juncture given the disposition of the electorate. I was hoping President Obama would have gotten Hubbard's idea to address mortgages past last year. Too bad the "opposition party" was more about obstruction than progress. Housing has been one of the leading anchors in this recovery. Thanks teabaggers.

OK Linus. Here goes: First of all there's a couple of things to think about. One is the liberal values of Democracy, which are Equality and Justic Liberals hold those values to be uppermost in importance about what kind of country we have and what is valued most.Conservative, like Hubbard, are against Democracy, so defined, and believe in the Free Market and whatever consequences the Free Market brings, that is, Hubbard is in favor of "process" rather than outcomes. As long as outcomes are the product of the correct process then whatever happens is the right thing. An America with deeply divided economic and social divisions would be acceptable to Hubbard as long as this is the consequence of the Free Market.

The second thing to think about is what is meant by "growth" or growth of the GDP. Neither side really addresses this issue square on. As Hubbard and Romney have said, there is no growth if the rich do not get to keep more of their profits through lower taxes. Whatever amount of profit the rich are now getting it is not enough to provoke them to create more jobs. They need more money. They are holding Amerca hostage to give them more money.

The worst economic recovery in history. (The Bush recession ended in June 2009.)

The longest sustained over 8% unemployment rate since the Great Depression--with planned job layoffs rising 41% in Oct.

Over 14% unemployment in real numbers.

1.7% GDP in 2012. (Lower than in 2011.)

Regulatory ban on drilling. The coal industry destroyed.

Gas/food prices skyrocketing.

Average earnings flat.

Median income down $4,300.

1 in 6 living in poverty.

47 million on food stamps.

No Medicare & Social Security reforms--and no plan to get that job done.

Obamacare escalating from 900 billion to 2.7 trillion......

16 trillion deficits--printing money destroying the U.S. dollar.

No budget passed in 3 years with America going off a fiscal cliff.

Obama quote, 2012: "It worked."

Obama translated: The New Normal. Get Used To It America.

America's collapsing infrastructure. Source Obama's victory run photo opt storm disaster a week later with a nanny state federal government too incompetent to deliver generators, basic water food, gas, and housing to thousands of citizens.

Obama 2009: "If I don't get this job done in three years, then it's a one term proposition."

If conservatives are all about taking responsibility how about farming those mortgages and selling them even though they knew they were trash? Don't tell me someone made them do. What made them do it was their greed. They felt they could get away with it. And they did . . . till they got caught.

I love this comment from a liberal who believes compromise means the Republicans are to roll over and do what Obama wants. I can't wait for Romney to win and then let's see if the democrats and liberals are all for cooperating with President Romney. I already know the answer, because Hapless Harry Reid already said he would not work with Romney if he wins the election.

http://www.mediaite.com...

How disingenuous of the democrats to decry the fact that the TEA Party representatives, who believe in fiscal responsibility and lower debt are supposed to support Obama and his failed economic plan, but Harry Reid has already said that he will not work with President Romney even before he is elected.

I disagree. America has gone from a GDP of -9 to one of over 2%. That is an 11% increase in 4 years. After the loss of 4.3 million jobs between 2009-2010, 5.5 million have been added. We are now recovering the 4.6 million lost under the Bush administration. Housing is back up at highs not seen in 6 years. Mr. Hubbard is obviously a Republican and see things from a pessimistic view. America is roaring back and is the strongest economy in the industrial world as we speak. Growth will increase next year and unemployment will continue to decline. I believe Mr. Hubbard was involved with the Bush administration so I value independent economists viewpoint above his for sure. People like Mr. Hubbard are dinosaurs and should not be given any "air time" by your organization.

the recovery is not fragile. THERE IS NO RECOVERY. AND THERE WILL BE NO RECOVERY UNTIL WE GET RID OF THE MORON IN THE WHITE HOUSE. The we have to get rid of the morons in the senate too....socialists. Four more years of the loser?