Tory grassroots ready to be swayed on EU

A majority of grassroots Conservatives have said they would vote to leave the
European Union but would be prepared to change their view if David Cameron
successfully renegotiated the UK’s membership, according to a poll.

On July 5, MPs will vote on a Bill to ensure a referendum by the end of 2017. The Bill was introduced by James Wharton, a Conservative backbencherPhoto: PA

By Peter Dominiczak and James Kirkup

8:46PM BST 19 Jun 2013

If a referendum was held now, 71 per cent of Tory grassroots members would vote to leave the EU, it was found. Only 20 per cent said they would vote to stay in. However, more than half said they would vote to stay if Mr Cameron is able to win back powers from the EU. The Prime Minister has promised to renegotiate the EU membership deal and put the results to the British public in a referendum by 2017 if re-elected in 2015.

Asked how they would vote in that referendum, only 38 per cent of Tory members said they would vote to leave if Mr Cameron achieved a deal with the EU that protected Britain’s interests.

More than half of respondents, 54 per cent, said they would vote to stay in the EU if the Prime Minister said that was in Britain’s best interests.

The poll will come as welcome news to Downing Street after tension with the grassroots over issues such as Europe. The survey was carried out by YouGov for Queen Mary, University of London, and the University of Sussex.

Prof Tim Bale, of Queen Mary, said the research showed Mr Cameron retains enough appeal among his party members to persuade them to support whatever renegotiated package he comes back with. “Grassroots Tories may be Euro-sceptics, but they trust David Cameron’s strategy on the European Union.”

On July 5, MPs will vote on a Bill to ensure a referendum by the end of 2017. The Bill was introduced by James Wharton, a Conservative backbencher. It has the support of Mr Cameron, who was blocked from bringing it forward as Government business because of Liberal Democrat opposition in the Coalition.

The Prime Minister has ordered all Conservative MPs to support Mr Wharton’s legislation. The party is also trying to gather public support for the Bill, asking the public to “co-sponsor” the legislation through a new website.

Both Labour and the Lib Dems have called the Bill a Tory “stunt” and suggested that their MPs will stay away from Parliament rather than vote on it. If Labour and the Lib Dems abstain, the Bill is likely to pass through the Commons. However, it will probably still be blocked in the House of Lords.

In the event of a referendum, Mr Cameron is expected to recommend that Britain remains a member of the EU.

In the Commons, he said that being in the EU allows Britain to be part of major trade deals with countries such as the US and China.

“Of course, if Britain wanted to leave the European Union we could and then we could make trade deals with every country in the world and that is a path open to us,” he said. “The argument I would make is that as part of the European Union, as part of the world’s largest single market, I think you do have the opportunity to drive some quite good deals.

“Clearly, you sometimes have to make compromises with partners in the European Union with whom you might not agree but on balance, I would argue membership of the single market clearly brings its benefits and the negotiating heft you have has its benefits as well.”