Can the Cleveland Indians salvage Ubaldo Jimenez? Terry Pluto

View full sizeCharles Rex Arbogast, Associated PressAs Indians manager Manny Acta removed Ubaldo Jimenez from Tuesday night's loss to the White Sox in Chicago, two things seemed clear to Terry Pluto. He's not only lost something off his fastball, he's lost a lot of confidence.

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Dan O'Dowd made it known that Ubaldo Jimenez was available; it was as much a warning as an opportunity.

The Tribe knew that. Just as they know O'Dowd well. He is the team's former assistant general manager from 1988-98. He has been the Rockies' GM since 1999. Colorado is a franchise that always needs pitchers, so why would O'Dowd be willing to trade Jimenez in the summer of 2011?

This was the same Jimenez who started for the National League in the 2010 All-Star Game, who was 19-8 with as 2.88 ERA that season. In July of 2011, Jimenez was only 27. He had a contract running through 2014 at very reasonable dollars.

It would seem the last thing you do is trade a guy like that. But Jimenez was 6-9 with a 4.46 ERA on July 31, 2011, when he was traded to Cleveland. The Indians thought they could fix him. If not in the middle of 2011, certainly by opening day of 2012.

Jimenez had been bothered by a groin pull in 2011 spring training. His fastball velocity was down (from an average of 96.1 in 2010 to 93.5). He also was upset because several teammates had received long and lucrative extensions, but O'Dowd declined to do the same for his ace right-hander.

The Indians were aware of all this.

"We knew his velocity was down a tick," said Tribe GM Chris Antonetti. "We knew he had been injured, and he had some complex mechanics that needed to be worked through. But we thought if we could get him healthy, he could still be a front of the rotation guy for us."

At the least, the Tribe thought they'd have the Jimenez of 2008 (12-12, 3.99) or the Jimenez of 2009 (15-12, 3.47). That Jimenez averaged more than 200 innings a year and was not intimidated by pitching in hitter-friendly Coors Field.

They still believe they can help Jimenez regain the form that makes him an effective major-league starter. But now they realize it's deeper than Jimenez pitching last year with a leg injury.

It's all those moving parts -- the arms and legs flying in different directions rather than flowing together. Jimenez is not trying to do it, but his deliveries are often like a blizzard of snowflakes -- none are exactly the same.

That is causing problems. Big problems.

Major disappointment

Losing it

Indians right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez has seen his fastball velocity and his swinging strikes decline over the last two seasons, according to numbers from fangraphs.com. The numbers show the average velocity on his fastball in mph, and the percentage of his pitches that result in a swinging strike:

2008: 94.9 / 8.9 percent

2009: 96.1 / 9.6

2010: 96.1 / 9.1

2011: 93.5 / 7.5

2012: 92.0 / 4.9

Since coming to the Indians, Jimenez is 6-6 with a 5.07 ERA. This season, he's 2-2 and 5.02, averaging more walks per nine innings (5.6) than strikeouts (4.5). His average fastball is now 92.0.

In Colorado, Jimenez averaged 8.2 strikeouts compared to 3.9 walks per nine innings. He still had frustrating moments, because his motion sometimes looked like a man falling down a flight of stairs as he piled up massive pitch counts (usually in the top 10 in the majors).

But Jimenez had a fastball that zinged, a sinker that dove and a change-up that deceived. Yes, he had too many pitches -- claimed to have six. There should be a rule than you can't have more than the catcher has fingers for signals.

And that violent, hiccup of a motion hinted of a future arm injury waiting to strike. But it's still hard to imagine the startling decline of a pitcher in his late 20s -- a pitcher who should be entering his prime.

It's also confusing. Antonetti said Jimenez worked hard in the off-season program assigned to him. He came into spring training in excellent condition.

The Indians didn't worry about him failing to average 96 mph. They believe with decent control, he would win a lot of games with a fastball in the 92-93 mph range, well above the big-league average of 90. But the control is erratic, his fastball is straight and hitters seldom swing and miss -- that rate is down from 7.5 in his mediocre 2011 season to 4.9 this year.

He's not fooling many hitters, period. They foul off a lot of pitches, raising his pitch count to close to 100 in the fifth inning of most starts.

Looking at Jimenez, this much is obvious: He's not only lost something off his fastball, he's lost a lot of confidence. And none of this is going to quickly change.

The arms that were dealt

View full sizeJoe Mahoney, Associated PressFormer Indians No. 1 draft pick Drew Pomeranz hasn't won yet this season for Colorado, but he's shown enough to offer the promise of a successful big-league career.

"Keep in mind, there was risk on both sides of the deal," said Tribe president Mark Shapiro. "It's often like that when you trade a lot of pitchers, but they do get hurt [more often than position players]."

The Indians sent prized pitching prospects Drew Pomeranz and Alex White to the Rockies, along with pitcher Joe Gardner. White was coming off a major finger injury. The Indians don't say it, but the organization is skittish when it comes to pitchers with bad fingers -- phenom Adam Miller had his career crash because of an injury to the same finger that White injured in 2011.

White was hammered with the Rockies last season -- 2-4 with an 8.42 ERA and 12 homers in 36 innings. He is 1-3 this season with a 2.92 ERA at Class AAA. While he's in the starting rotation, his future may be in the bullpen -- something the Indians believed when they made him their top pick of the 2009 draft.

Gardner, 24, is 1-0 with a 4.84 ERA at Class AA Tulsa. He was 3-3 with a 2.84 ERA for that same team in 2011. While a starter, he also may end up in the bullpen.

The key to the deal for the Rockies is Pomeranz, who allowed one run in 6 2/3 innings against the Dodgers in his last start on Wednesday. He is 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA in four starts. He did miss a start earlier in the season with a sore forearm.

The Tribe's top pick in 2010, Pomeranz had some arm issues in college. Even now, his fastball is averaging 89 mph, below the 92-94 range in college. But the 23-year-old lefty has fanned 18 in 20 innings -- compared to 12 walks. If he stays healthy, he could be an impact starter.

I didn't like the Jimenez deal on the day it was made -- and wrote two negative stories about it. But I also never expected the bottom to fall out of Jimenez, not at the age of 28.

I wonder if Jimenez can put all the pieces back together. He had a 15-1 record with a 2.20 ERA at the 2010 All-Star break. Since then, he's 16-22 with a 4.70 ERA. It's almost a two-year trend.

Both Shapiro and Antonetti stressed that it's "far too early to evaluate the trade." Jimenez was brought in to help the Tribe in the 2011 playoff race, and he flopped. He's not showing any major signs of recovery as he tinkers with his windup during the season.

But in Colorado, no one was thrilled when both White and Pomeranz were arrested on separate DUI incidents. Odd things happened, such as Pomeranz having an appendectomy. White had a 6.12 ERA in spring training before being sent to the minors, where he is building a case for a promotion. There remains anxiety about his finger, even though has been healthy this season.

On the mound, plenty of risk

Trying to figure out pitchers can drive general managers into despair. The Yankees' Brian Cashman is catching heat after trading for prime pitching prospect Michael Pineda, who needs surgery.

"I'm devastated..." Cashman told the New York media. "I'm doing a job and that job involves making very difficult decisions. You hope that those decisions work out."

Then consider the case of 38-year-old Derek Lowe, who was 9-17 with a 5.05 ERA for the Braves in 2011. Who thought he'd open 2012 at 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA for the Tribe? Certainly not Atlanta, which picked up $10 million of Lowe's $15 million salary in a trade for a marginal Tribe prospect named Chris Jones.

The Braves simply wrote off Lowe, who is pitching close to what the Indians hoped they'd receive from Jimenez. The deal is now steal for the Tribe.

Talking about his trade of phenom catcher Jesus Montero to Seattle for Pineda, the Yankees' Cashman said: "I don't think judgment or anything of that nature was compromised. I think the process is strong. The evaluations are accurate. But there's always inherent risk when you deal with pitching. ... It's not looking good at all, so you're experiencing the blowback from that. I see it and I'll wear it."

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