000
FXUS63 KOAX 080522
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1122 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016
Forecast concerns this package will be how far south the
clouds/flurries will make it later tonight from the Dakotas and
Thursday along with temperatures and wind chills. Attention then
turns to potential for flurries Friday and the development of a
shortwave in the zonal flow Saturday/chance for light snow and
flurries.
Much colder temperatures for today with temperatures in the upper
teens to mid 20s at 3pm and gusty northwest winds resulting in
wind chill values in the single digits and teens. The area of snow
over south central Nebraska had dropped south into Kansas with
decreasing clouds.
Although cold surface high pressure is building in, a 30 to 35kt
wind at h925 and push of cold air will keep surface winds around
10 to 20kt sustained and gusty through Thursday. h85 temps
are around -13deg C. this afternoon and are forecast to stay that
cold overnight dropping to around -15 deg. by Thursday evening.
Surface temperatures tonight drop into the single digits and lower
teens. Wind chills do not hit advisory criteria, so no advisory
needed, however lower to 0 to 15 below zero. With most of the
snowcover melted and a cold start Thursday, highs should top out
in the teens to mid 20s.
Ridging over the Rockies Friday results in warm advection across
the forecast area aloft with a strengthening 35kt low level jet.
This waa combined with forecast soundings showing saturation from
top down through the dendritic growth zone could result in some
flurries or light snow. The EC does have some light QPF near the
SD/Neb border and added flurries to the forecast for Friday along
with the thickening clouds.
Stronger upper level forcing is forecast for Saturday with a swath
of 2 to 4 inches snow across the Dakotas into MN is expected.
Right now, northeast Neb is on the southern fringe of the
accumulating snow and include some amounts around an inch Saturday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016
...The extended remains unsettled with a prolonged period of below
normal temperatures...
The storm system will be exiting the area Saturday night, however
do have some lingering light snow mention along and east of the
Missouri River. The EC has a trailing shortwave for Sunday which
the GFS does not, so will need to assess this. Once again, a cold
push of air builds in behind these weather systems, however, the
main brunt of the cold air will be east of the forecast area.
The unsettled weather continues into next week, however the
location and timing details are a bit out of sync depending on
which model is being looked at.
High mainly in the teens and 20s with this cold pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Gusty winds
are expected to continue through the morning at KOMA and KOFK,
before diminishing Thursday afternoon.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...KG