Megapoll – Full Breakdowns

For those of you that haven’t heard, the largest scientific political poll undertaken in Australian history has just been released. Over the next week or so, we’ll take a bit of a look at it. It was commissioned by Together – Qlds public sector union (caveat, , my employer) – and undertaken by ReachTEL.

The sample size was 36,323 conducted across all 89 Qld electorates. The poll asked the following questions:

1. State Voting Intentions

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The Qld State government is currently considering a major report into the way Queensland is run. This report, called the Costello Report, recommends that many public services be sold and outsourced to the private sector.

2. Would you support or oppose the privatisation of electricity and infrastructure assets in Qld?

3. Would you support or oppose the privatisation and outsourcing of hospitals and public health services in Qld?

4. Would you support or oppose the privatisation and outsourcing of community services such as disability support and child protection?

5. If the Liberal National Party state government were to follow the recommendations of the Costello report and privatise these public services, would that make you more or less likely to vote for the Liberal National Party at the next election?

6. If the Liberal National Party state government called an election to seek a mandate from the Queensland people to privatise public services, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?

The Statel level results can be seen over at ReachTEL, but we’ll break them down into 18 smaller groups of seat aggregations called micro-regions that have solid sample sizes. Firstly, the names of the micro-regions, the electorates they contain, and a map of the region so you can get a handle on what it actually means

These micro-regions carry the following sample sizes and margins of error:

Now all the process stuff is out of the way, on with the questions and results!

Question 1: Voting Intentions:

Question 2. Privatisation of electricity and infrastructure assets:

Question 3: Privatisation of hospitals and outsourcing of public health services:

Question 4: Privatisation and outsourcing of community services such as disability support and child protection.

Question 5: If the Liberal National Party state government were to follow the recommendations of the Costello report and privatise these public services, would that make you more or less likely to vote for the Liberal National Party at the next election?

Question 6: If the Liberal National Party state government called an election to seek a mandate from the Queensland people to privatise public services, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?

Finally, some swing figures on all those. First up – the 2012 Election Results for context:

Now the Primary Vote Swings involved with Question 1 – the current voting intentions. Notice the big variations in regional swings with the LNP suffering big swings against them already in the cities, yet have strengthened their own vote in some of the regional areas.

Next, the primary vote swings involved with question 6 – an election where the Newman government was seeking a privatisation mandate.

Finally, the difference between the two – or the additional swing induced by opposition to privatisation

There’s a lot to absorb here – we’ll do some actual analysis of the figures in a later post