Trading Radar: Light Week for Economic Data in the US

Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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It was another crazy week for the US markets with the release of May manufacturing and jobs reports. Friday's nonfarm payrolls rose 175,000, with April's report revised to 149,000 from the previous estimate of 165,000. The unemployment rate, however, ticked up to 7.6% on a 0.1% increase in the labor force participation rate. Weekly hours worked remained steady at 34.5 after falling to 34.4 from 34.6 last month (this figure was revised up to 34.5). A continued decline in manufacturing jobs was the notable negative facet of the reports, so as a whole, the report was basically a wash.

Next week there will be very little economic data reported in the US since the broad majority of May data has already been released. May retail sales will be released on Thursday with economists expecting a 0.4% month-over-month gain. In April, sales rose by 0.1% though the ex gas figure rose by 0.7%. Unleaded gas prices, according to AAA, rose 2.27% in May, which should cause a 0.23% gain in retail sales, with all else being equal. According to FactSet Research, guidance for consumer discretionary companies (read: retail) in the upcoming quarter's earnings is skewed 88% negative, or 17 of 21, which doesn't lend to solid real growth.

The other major US datapoint for the week will be Friday's release of May industrial and manufacturing production numbers. On the whole, manufacturing production, through the results of regional and national manufacturing surveys, have showed moderate growth for the month of May as prices continued to fall and companies looked to replenish depleted inventories. Economists estimate that both industrial and manufacturing will show a 0.2% gain. Lastly, the first estimate of the University of Michigan/Reuters consumer confidence index will be released with the consensus economist estimate forecasting no change from last month's 84.5.

Next week there will also be Treasury refunding auctions with 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year durations, with the latter two being first refundings of the May issues. The auction sizes are $32 billion, $21 billion, and $13 billion, respectively.

In the global sphere, the economic releases will be more active. Over the weekend, China will release monthly figures for its retail sales and industrial production. In Europe, the UK and Switzerland will release employment data from May. Lastly, Japan will release the final estimate of its first quarter GDP and consumer confidence, and the Bank of Japan will release its latest decision on monetary policy on Tuesday morning.

Earnings will continue to be light for at least another two weeks. Notable reports for the next week include Lululemon Athletica Inc.(NASDAQ:LULU), Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc.(NASDAQ:ULTA), and Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NYSE:SFD).

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