DECC lines up with the Bank of England on the carbon bubble as the oil industry tries to rubbish it, the Pope becomes a climate campaigner, Lima climate summit pulls progress from the jaws of defeat: Week 49, 2014

Lima talks reach eleventh-hour global agreement by deferring key issues. But the Lima Call For Climate Action commits all nations to emissions cuts for the first time.US DoE writes to Nature protesting the 4 Dec. “fracking fallacy” article. EIA’s forecasts complementary with UT forecasts, not competitive: paper is “deeply flawed”.EDF to net £3bn windfall from existing plants under UK’S capacity market scheme. It has pre-qualified 8 nuclear plants and 2 coal plants for the auction, starting next week.
13.12.14.Finance for developing countries once again the issue. US, EU, and others want focus on emissions reductions, developing countries want finance too.Climate negotiations drag on as workers start dismantling the Lima summit site. As frustration turns to fury in some cases, negotiators seem incapable of escaping old agendas.Emerging text takes the talks backwards, keeping world on course for climate crisis. The draft contains no commitment to overall 2˚C target, even no review of national targets.US lead negotiator warns Lima climate talks face”major breakdown”. With the talks now run over by 25 hours, Todd Stern says major differences remain.
12.12.14.Condensed draft text tabled in Lima risks inflaming developing countries. The original text had ballooned to 60 pages. NGOs label the new one “dangerously weak”.“Like minded group” says no deal is better than a bad deal. Coalition including Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia and India say talks could resume in early 2015.Pope Francis urges Lima delegates to agree a strong deal. The head of the Catholic Church says “the time to find global solutions is running out.”

Lima summit extended as row over finance boils over. The amounts offered by the rich nations are “ridiculously low”, just over $10bn.“Fossil fuel companies facing crisis, warns Davey”: Times. Bank of England should require disclosure of carbon investments and involve other regulators.Oil price plunge continues: Brent close to $62. IEA warns of global social instability and threat of debt defaults in eg Russia, Venezuela.World stock markets suffer worst fall since 2011: £112bn wiped from FTSE 100. The oil price, and China fears, lead a long list of reasons why investors are losing faith.“Stuck Earning $1 a Day? Exxon Wants to Be Your New Best Friend”: Bloomberg. Exxon et al are increasingly “portraying themselves as champions of the world’s poor.”
11.12.14.“Fossil-Fuel Exposure May Need to Be Disclosed in U.K.”: Bloomberg. Ed Davey tells reporters he has written to BoE Governor about this. FT cites Carbon Tracker.Kerry pledges US will take lead, but every nation must act. “We simple don’t have time to sit around going back and forth, says US Secretary of State.With 24 hours left in Lima, negotiators have agreed only one paragraph. “We are going backwards” say NGOs.Slow progress in Lima is costing lives: Oxfam Chief. Winnie Byanyima says negotiators have detached human feelings from the negotiations.“Russia has just lost the economic war with the west”. Larry Elliot argues that full blown currency crisis is only part of a perfect storm facing Putin.
10.12.14.Avaaz mass e-mail: “Something huge is happening this week” in Lima. Governments are about to set a goal to cut carbon pollution completely. But it is at risk.

Catholic bishops from every continent demand end to fossil fuels. Their statement call s for 100% renewable energy, and strong focus on finance for adaptation.“We are winning the war”: international wind and solar industries at COP 20. Steve Sawyer for GWEC and Jeremy Leggett for EPIA give a 30 minute press conference.

“UN climate negotiations ‘15 years out of date’ on renewables”, GWEC boss tells Lima. “We can renewably power the world well before 2050,” says Jeremy Leggett for EPIA.Wind and solar “not ready for prime time”, says Exxon’s chief strategist Bill Colton. And “peak oil theorists have been run out of town by American ingenuity,” he adds.
9.12.14.Full decarbonization by 2050 on the table in Lima as ministers arrive at summit. “Elements of a draft negotiating text”, published for week 2 in Lima, contains the key words.Peru and Brazil diplomats say they will help broker a deal in Lima. But NGOs accuse them of more talk than action on emissions.Funds press oil and gas boards to explain how they will deal with climate change. Global coalition including Calpers, Aviva, turn up the pressure.“US shale industry faces endurance test after Opec rejects cuts”: FT. “Survival of he fittest” chart says it all in one graphic: some have net debt >4x EBITDA.

WorseningS African electricity crisis: blackouts worst since 2008. Among structural-constraint reasons for S Africa’s downgrading by ratings agencies.100,000 hydrogen fuel cells installed in Japan en route to hydrogen-society. The national goal is 5.3 million home installations by 2030, 10% of all households.Challenges to the energy industry and society are “potentially existential”. JL interview in Energy World, foreseeing E.ON’s U-turn in business model.
8.12.14.Saudi Arabia in ‘race against time’ to cut fossil-fuel dependency, says envoy. But total fossil-fuel phase out by 2050 is “unrealistic”, and 2C target “needs more work.”