For over 20 years
the LCU has warned publicly of armed conflicts breaking out in more
than one region of Libya as an inevitable result of deliberate
designs by Libya’s former dictator Muammar Gaddafi. The LCU chairman
is on record “ringing the alarm bells” to this danger and demanding
that all concerned do their utmost, collectively and individually,
to raise awareness among the Libyan populace and take the necessary
precautions to avert it. The following are few examples of the
occasions he sounded this warning in the media:

(al-Hayat,
London 29/08/2005)

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The following is a translation from Arabic of an extract from
LCU chairman's interview with the London Arabic daily "Asharw Al-Awsat"
published on 10 July 1992, in which he warned of the looming
danger of civil war in Libya.

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Q: After
the assassination of the Algerian president (Budiaf) and the
accusation of the Islamic Salvation Front with the assassination,
some observers say that it may be wiser to contend with Gaddafi in
Libya and leave him in power because the opposition is not ready and
if Gaddafi was to fall religious extremist may take power in Libya ?

A: The opposition is not ready to
govern. This is a fact. If Gaddafi falls now, neither religious
extremists nor opposition parties will take over power, civil war
may break out in the country. Libya is now on the brink of
civil war.

Q: Between who?

A: Between Libyan tribes. The
years of political vacuum have eroded the strength and ties of the
Libyan society and taken it back to more or less how it was before
World War One as far as tribal friction and lack of state authority
are concerned. Tribal power and allegiances have returned to the way
they were before independence. Now, Libyan tribes are busy forming
alliances. Absence of state authorities led individual tribes to
provide their own protection. Tribes are now actively arming
themselves.

Q: Where do tribes
obtain the arms from?

A: Today in Libya one can acquire
a Kalashnikoff rifle for 200 Dinars. Army personnel trade in arms,
and besides, the authority is arming certain tribes. Gaddafi is
arming his own tribe (Gadadifa tribe) and their allies (WerfallaTribe). Some of
the strongest army units, based in Sirt (the Middle province), come
from these twotribes. These tribes consider the army as their own
force and not really a nationalLibyan army. Gaddadfa and Warfalla
tribes are particularly active in forging alliances with many
smaller tribes. Jallude is officially arming his own tribe (Magarha). Other
tribes in the country are anxiously monitoring these activities and
come to realise that if the regime falls and all traces of security
disappeared, they will be overwhelmed by the heavily armed Gadadfa and
Magarha and their allies. For this reason all other tribes are
busy arming their own. It is worth noting here that Libya has
a history of civil wars, it lived through more than one civil
war. There was a war in the Western region between Warfalla and
Misrata tribes which continued for several years and resulted in
much destruction and bloodshed. Another war broke between Awlad
Sulaiman and Al-Hosoon tribes in the West. In the East there was a
war between the West Line tribes and the East Line tribes which
lastedfor tens of years.

Q: Why did these
wars not spread all over Libya?

A: At that time Libya did not
exist as a united state. Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezzan existed
as separate states. It was King Idris who united them. Going back
to the subject of civil war, there was one in Cyrenaica between the
Saadi tribes. Sections of the same tribes broke away and fought
each other. Cousins killed each other in wars between Barasa and
Dersa on the one side and Obeidat tribes on the other. Much Libyan
blood was shed in civil wars. The situation only settled down with
the First and Second World Wars because of the incoming of foreign
forces to the region. One of the most important achievements of
King Idris when he first took charge was stopping civil wars between
Libyan tribes. We should not forget the major war in Cyrenaica
which lasted for almost forty years between Saadi tribes and their
sub-tribe, the Awlad Ali tribes. Saadi tribes expelled all of Awlad
Ali toEgypt. They now Live in Salloum and Matrouh in
Egypt. They wear Libyan national dress and have Egyptian
nationality.

Q: Do you mean
that if Col. Gadafi fell several civil wars will break out in Libya?

A:
Libya is at present on the brink of civil war. The clouds of
civil war have been darkening since 1985.

Q:
That is so if Gaddafi fell, but if the West decided to keep him in
power what kind of future awaits Libya?

If the West decided to keep him
in power then the Libyans will get some temporary relief from the
usual oppression and injustice because Gaddafi will want to prove
to the West that he seriously intends to fulfil his undertakings to
improve conditions starting with his own position. He will
take full advantages of the readiness of the West to have open
dealings with him and strengthen these relations. He could only
achieve this through relieving the oppressions and constraints on
the Libyan public to appear forgiving and win time. This will be an
enormous change to those living in Libya.

was
published in the London based Arabic daily “Asharq Al-Awsat” on 4th
October 1992.

………………

….. The nation is
currently on the edge of the abyss which Muammar Gaddafi pushed it
to after he turned it into tribal blocks racing to arms for fear of
each other.

I drew attention
to the gravity of this matter in my interview with “Asharq Al-Awsat”
on 10 July 1992. And previously in a letter dated 20/11/1985 I
circulated among most of my colleagues in the Libyan Opposition in
order to collectively take all possible precautions to waste the
opportunity on Gaddafi and be prepared to the disaster he is pushing
the country to before its too late. His blatant threat to the Libyan
people in his latest speech at the 23rd anniversary of
his military coup d'état, to “shed Libyan blood by Libyan hands
and transform the country to flames and smoke” was a clear
indicator to his intentions. Especially when he has already began in
earnest to sow the seeds of discord [amongst the components of the
nation] and laid the ground and created the conditions for conflict
and made weapons readily available. Past experience taught us that
he always executes the threats he voices in his public
speeches no matter how odd and far from logic and rationale. We
therefore are obliged not to ignore this threat or underestimate it.

The continuation
of Gaddafi in power; unchallenged and free to exercise his schemes
against the national unity of the country, coupled with the
underestimation by many of the internal conditions which he created
so that Libya will be gone with him if he was ousted, would
inevitably lead to civil war in more than one region in the end,
whether Gaddafi stays or goes.

Hence, the
safeguarding of the Libyan Unity requires from us, as Libyan
opposition groups enjoying the freedom of movement out of reach of
his oppression and far from direct influence of his propaganda
machine, a unified stand to thwart his diabolical plans.

We must take all
necessary precautions and spread awareness inside Libya against
that, and do all we can to overthrow him and maintain Libya united,
independent and safe.

Civil War is a known
phenomenon in sectarian and tribal societies which community groups
and tribes find themselves forced into, mostly under internal
circumstances and sometimes they are dragged to it by feuds or
foreign conspiracies. In other cases they are pushed to it by
subjecting them to vengeful conditions designed tightly to arrive at
that end. In our part of the world there is at present a living
example of nearly all those cases.

Tribalism is deeply rooted in Libyan society. Most of the Libyan
people are tribal in their thinking, perceptions and their
relationships. This is a fact no two Libyans, who are fully aware of
the reality of their country and society and are honest in
addressing it would differ about. Another fact is that Libya never
experienced a total civil war that involved most of its citizens at
the same time, and that is due to the long distances and vast
deserts separating its population centres. However; Libya, like most
tribal communities suffered greatly from numerous and cyclic
regional civil wars, which only came to a halt when legions of the
colonial European armies took control of the country at the
beginning of this century.

The Libyan society is currently anguishing under the influence of
two of the major factors that usually lead to civil war in similar
societies. The first is Gaddafi’s continuous promotion of anarchy
and his deliberate incitement to put various segments of the Libyan
people on a collision course. His aim is to keep them occupied in
looking after their own survival and interests away from challenging
his reign on power.

The second is the embargo imposed on Libya since Mid April 1992
under the pretext of the Lockerbie case, which rendered living
conditions in the country at a level of hardship and complexity
reminiscent of conditions in the 1950s pre discovery of oil in
Libya.

In July 1992 I drew attention to this deteriorating state of affairs
in Libya and invited debate about it in an attempt to rally a united
stand amongst Libyan opposition groups against this threat. My
endeavour succeeded relatively at the level of public awareness, but
failed miserably on the level of the opposition. It was met with
disdain and minimizing of the gravity and seriousness of the
situation. A media campaign against that endeavour took three
parallel lines; the kindest described it as “paranoia”. While
another denounced it and vouched that it’s a lie Gaddafi himself is
behind it. The third considered the matter as “deliberately
exaggerated fears of the unknown, built on wrong assumptions, with
nothing to substantiate them in real life in Libyan society”.

All that while the Libyan historian Attayeb Al-Ashab chronicled in
his book “Arabic Cyrenaica”, which is accepted as one of the most
valuable Libyan modern history books (published in 1947), details of
four civil wars which, between them, involved all of the Cyrenaican
tribes. And which lasted for decades costing thousands of lives.

He narrated on page 106: “Other wars also took place in
Cyrenaica; sometimes among clans from within the “Saadi” tribes
themselves, and others between the Saadi tribes on one side and
other tribes on the other. Here I have ignored addressing the wars
between just two tribes, or two clans and left it to the second
edition of this book when my research of there details is completed.
I will only briefly tackle the wars between “Al-Jabarna” and
“Al-Fwayed” tribes, the war between the “Al-Alaaya” and “Al-Jwazi”
tribes, the war between the “Al-Alaaya” and “al-Hessoon” tribes and
finally the war between “al-Abidaat” and “Al-Bara’ssa” tribes”
[end of quote].

The western region of the country is no different to the eastern
part in this context. Its history is loaded with wars. The most
memorable and closer to present history was the war between
“Misrata” and “Wirfalla” which took place in the twenties of this
century in spite of engagement in confronting the colonial invasion.

In the post independence era and during the period of the rule of
law and state security, the Libyan mentality proved in more than one
occasion that it is the same as the one that ignited those wars of
yesteryears. The infamous bloody events of 1964 in Benghazi that
followed the killing of a number of the city’s high school pupils is
a clear evidence of the possibility and ease of tribal clashes in
Libya. I refrained from including those events here because I am not
yet in possession of all the official documents that recorded their
details in full. However; I found in the British Public Records
Office a secret report recently released (after 30 years) from one
of the British embassy’s local employees to his boss, the Chief of
Information Office, Mr. Fletcher, in which he described clashes that
took place on Friday 1st July 1955.between workers at the
RAF Military Base of El Adem in Tobruk. The report is kept under
reference number 5506 in File FO 1021/132.

The report described how competition for work opportunities and
positions of influence among Libyan workers at el Adem Airbase,
which was part of the British Military Base in Libya, developed into
a battle between two of Cyrenaica’s largest tribes. Dynamite,
rifles, axes and heavy sticks were used in the battle. When the
endeavours of the local MP Alkatafi Sa’d failed to end the fighting
he called for help from the commander of the British base and from
the Cyrenaica Defence Force (CDF). The intervention of the British
Military Police along side the (CDF) was needed to separate the
combatants and force them to calm and restraint. The matter did not
end there. The clashes evoked previous feuds, reopened old wounds
and revived dormant hostilities causing ripples of disquiet in the
entire eastern region.

The governor of Tobruk, Hamad Al-Mukhtar, survived an assassination
attempt after being accused of bias. The General Commander of
Security in the Kingdom of Libya, Brigadier Mahmoud Bu-Quitin
arrived at Tobruk and mobilised the “Mobile Force” in the area to
keep control of the situation. [The Mobile Force was the “The
Special Force” of the (CDF), highly trained and armed for
emergencies].

The fact that The Tobruk Governor was the son of the Libyan war hero
“Omar Al-Mukhtar” did not intercede for him. For in Libya, as in all
other tribal societies, the high rank and status of a man does not
make him better suited to resolve disputes as much as it does make
him an ideal target to settle feuds with his tribe. Hence the
outsider is always the more effective in resolving infightings, and
his mediation and intervention are the hope of ending conflicts.

In the current state of our country, in the absence of a national
government that is keen to protect the blood of its citizens and
concerned about their security and stability, and with the
continuation of the blockade, which is producing the necessary
conditions for Gaddafi to reap his evil plans and policies, who
would resolve our differences and separate us in the event of a
collision? Would the Security Council entrust neighbouring countries
with that task? Or will the Marines volunteer to carry it out? Could
this be the goal of the blockade imposed on the Libyan people?

These are questions worthy of contemplation in my view. I’m forced
to discuss them out of love for my country and fear for its future.
Do not turn your faces away from them, unless you can prove that the
Psyche of our people and their morals and customs are different from
1964 and 1955. And that experience has polished them and elevated
them from the traditional customs of our societies.

After several hours of talks we reached the
same dead end as in 1982. The man was obviously relieved by
this outcome and admitted that he had wished for this conclusion
and in fact only met with me to please the White House (meaning Mr
James Baker). He added that his department would never deal
with the LCU unless
forced, despite the fact that it is (in his view) the only Libyan
organisation worthy of recognition. He went on to elaborate that
this was because success of the LCU concept would make an
encouraging precedent in the region, the very thing his bureau had
been making sure would never happen since the 1940s. These
concerns, the gentleman suggested, were missing from the White
House. However, he volunteered to offer a limited conditional
assistance to the LCU to oblige the White House, which according
to him, had asked his department more than once to “aid Mohammed”
(meaning myself). The condition for aid was that it would not be
of a political nature. It was clear to me that he was drawing me
toward a defiant response similar to my reaction in 1982 in order
to end the meeting with a sour note from my part. This, I
suspected, would relieve him from the responsibility of
contradicting the instruction from the White House. I resisted
being drawn and did not see refusing the initiative from the White
House would be in the interest of the national Libyan case. I
went on to request that they put us, with recommendations, in
touch with one of the American Organisations involved in spreading
democracy in the world to finance establishing a centre for the
LCU equipped with communication and promotional facilities and
with adequate protection from Gaddafi’s terrorist activities. The
centre, I explained, would enable us to more effectively spread
the constitutional awareness that had been erased by the machinery
of Gaddafi’s regime until times improved in favour of our case.
He refused. But went on to say that I held all the winning cards
in the game but my own people let me down. Adding that, had the
exiled Libyans donated just the coins in the piggy banks of their
children, he (Bureau) would not only have found himself forced to
cooperate with me, but would actually be compelled to serve me
because he would not want to appear to the American public to be
against a case such as this one. He went on to say that they (the
Libyans) had no taste for this advanced standard which must be
forcefully claimed by nations, not handed over as a gift. He made
clear that he would not spend the American taxpayers funds to hand
the Libyans an honour they do not deserve. He went on to present
an alternative offer. His department would finance me and guide
my steps to publish a periodical from which I would keep the
profits on condition that they (his bureau) would oversee the
activities, approve all publications and that I stay away from the
Libyan case. I refrained from responding and quickly changed the
subject to end the meeting by recording my misgivings about their
Libyan policy and my fears from it. I stated that I was alarmed
by the fact that the rapid deterioration in the Libyan
infrastructure was not happening by accident. The revival of
tribalism which was promoted as an alternative to the state’s
infrastructure could easily be manipulated to turn into an
inflammatory and uncontrollable security nightmare. I was
suspicious of the insistence shown by America’s “friends” in the
Libyan opposition on dismissing the gravity of this trend, refusal
to acknowledge the problem and silencing voices that may attempt
to highlight it

I wondered (to the
gentleman) what were the crimes committed by the Libyans against
the American people to earn such intense enmity.

I had not been prepared
for the reaction that followed. The confident and aloof man lost
his temper. I had obviously touched a raw nerve and clearly
surprised him. He was aware of what I was describing including
details and likely consequences. However, he had not expected me
to see through the events and figure out seemingly accidental
developments. In his outburst, the gentleman volunteered much, a
great deal of which, I am certain, he had not intended to reveal.
The only part I wish to record here is that he challengingly
endorsed what had been said adding that he personally believed
that a blood bath was what the Libyans needed to wash off their
idleness and vanity to become worthy of the wealth that exploded
under their feet undeservedly. He defied me to change any of the
set plans or alter their course. The White House, he noted,
should find their own route to deal with me if they insist on
doing so.

I left the meeting and
headed for the nearest travel office. I left Washington on
December 7th 1984.

I share these experiences
in the belief that the information concerns all. Changing the
course of events in Libya’s national interest is a duty for all.