Graham Bishop is renowned for his vision and the courage to propose radical ideas, yet ground them in a mastery of the technical details of the financial system. He has been referred to as a one-man think tank and named at 33 amongst the Top 40 British EU policy 'influencers'.

European Commission: His influence at the meeting point of politics, economics and finance has been recognised again: President Barroso has appointed him to be a member of the Commission's Expert Group on debt redemption fund and eurobills.

Graham's many pro bono activities illuminate and reinforce his Consultancy Services. His deep knowledge of Europe’s financial system is integrated with his understanding of EU economic and budgetary policy-making – whilst set within the necessary framework of democratic accountability.

He was a member of the Commission's Consultative Group on the Impact of the Euro on Capital Markets; of the Commission's Strategy Group on Financial Services; and of the Committee of Independent Experts on the preparation of the changeover to the single currency (1994/5).

This Website, as well as Graham's Consultancy Service, is designed to bring clients the direct insights that flow from Graham’s position as a leading technical analyst of economic and structural developments in the financial markets of Europe.

"It is now entirely foreseeable that governments may make potentially far-reaching changes that would impact the valuation of European financial assets, as well as reforming the nature of the regulations governing key parts of the financial sector’s business".

"..So the consequences of this crisis will be historic – and will reverberate around global financial markets. The stakes for participants in European financial markets could not be higher.."

Consultancy services can take many forms: face-to-face meetings, telephone discussions, written comments, speeches, special articles, customised research projects, etc.

Continuing Profesional Development Many finance professionals will find that society requires you to be Knowledgeable and Competent when MiFD II came into force in January 2018. We have launched our CPD Weekly "10 Minute Read 'n Verify" to give 7.5 hours of structured CPD annually. Full Details

(Graham has "his cake and eats it" at the 100th Brussels for Breakfast)

The PM made her way back to Brussels with nothing to offer in return except a bleak threat of a crude divorce in just over a month - an ‘atomic bomb’ Brexit “everybody dreads”, as the Maltese Finance Minister recognised.

148th Brussels for Breakfast – CPD Notes

As the UK Parliament agonises over Brexit, a sombre mood descended on the Breakfast as it became ever-more clear that irreversible damage has already been done to the City. ESMA published various notices on dealing with CCPs, CSDs and trade reporting continuity via MoUs with the Bank of England. But the drumbeat of news about yet more billions of euros of trading books moving out of the UK underlined that the profitability of the residual UK operations would come under pressure – inevitably leading to job losses. However, the more immediate hit to the UK may come from the removal from the UK of the foreign exchange revenues flowing from these books. Moreover, the SSM is already the world’s largest bank regulator and the swelling numbers of supervised banks will only re-enforce its role in international fora.

For the future of UK trade with EU, analysis of the newly in-force EU/Japan trade deal makes depressing reading. It underlines the EU’s intention to set the tone of international trade deals – to preserve its values and rules. For financial services, there is a specific article on the “prudential carve out” that maintains the ability of a receiver of financial services to refuse them if the other party’s rules are deemed inadequate.

The European Parliament elections in late May are likely to be a pivotal moment as the new Parliament will meet on July 2nd. If Brexit has been delayed, will the UK be obliged to hold elections so that UK MEPs can influence the choice of the next Commission President etc? Will the extreme `populists’ of left and right be able to combine to thwart business? [...]

May’s Deal = “Vassal State” OR “Deferred Crash Out”

Only a Government of National Unity (GNU) can solve this now

Look beyond the Irish backstop problem: The May `deal’ leads inexorably to a `vassal state’ OR a `crash out’ deferred to 2020.

The EU27 has made it plain that it will maintain its `autonomy of decision making’: ask EEA/EFTA/Switzerland what this means in practice.

A Government of National Unity (GNU) must ask EU27 for a timetable extension to work thoroughly through the options. Then Parliament decides OR puts it back to the people.

The GNU would have two prime tasks:

1. Set up a Parliamentary Commission of the whole of Parliament to examine in full detail all the implications of each option that commands any reasonable support in the House of Commons. If there is no clear `winner’ in the House voting, then Parliament should ask the people to choose between the top two options – having sent each elector a summary of the Parliamentary Commission’s comparison of the two options.

2. Begin the national healing: identify the areas where EU migration has deprived the indigenous population of proper access to public services; start a crash programme of sorting it – funded by a temporary `solidarity’ tax surcharge until 2020 (Note: 1p on income tax for four years = £20 billion).

Who should lead this GNU? The Father of the House – Ken Clarke – has an unrivalled breadth of experience in 24 years in government/50 years in the House. Mrs May should step down and recommend the Queen to call on him to form a GNU. That would answer Her Majesty's call to find "common ground".

MPs managed to pass a key amendment which will force PM Theresa May to come back to Parliament with an alternative plan just three sitting days after the deal she agreed in Brussels last month is rejected next Tuesday – as it is widely expected to be. This controversial tweak limits May’s supposed strategy to run down the clock right to Brexit eve so MPs are left with the binary choice of staring right into the no-deal abyss or voting the PM’s proposal.

The clash is therefore set for next week with a vote on the 15th that will most probably see May’s deal rejected – the deadline for May’s alternative motion would then be January 21. The Tory leader will then have to propose a motion that will be amendable, which could see MPs testing options such as a so-called Norway plus model or even a second referendum – a People’s Vote on the final deal the majority of Britons now want, as shown in the widest poll on the issue to date. The whole Brexit process could ultimately be cancelled if a majority in Parliament or a landslide popular vote calls for it: the EU top judge ruled that the UK can unilaterally withdraw Article 50. [...]

147th Brussels for Breakfast – CPD Notes

As political history unfolds at Westminster, it was inevitable that Brexit took up much time. News from the ECJ topped the agenda as the Court moved at lightning speed to rule that the UK could indeed unilaterally withdraw its Art 50 notice --- BUT it must be done in a proper constitutional manner and must “not involve an abusive practice”. The European Council met in its Art 50 formation and reconfirmed its November conclusions about the agreement but “It is not open for renegotiation.”

The Commission has started its process of implementing its “no deal” planning with just 14 measures. These include a strictly limited equivalence decision of 12 months for CCPs and 24 months for CSDs. There was also a regulation for 12 months to facilitate novation for OTC contracts moving into EU 27 from the UK. This was announced at the very last moment to forestall announcements about giving notice to UK contracts. The tight time frames triggered a surprising discussion about Switzerland’s troubles with the EU that resulted in a 12 month equivalence decision for the Swiss stock exchange. However, this was extended for a further 6 months even after the Swiss government postponed their decision on the EU’s “institutional framework” proposal. [...]

Banca Carige: an inauspicious start to 2019?

On the first working day of the New Year, the ECB announced that it has appointed temporary administrators to the troubled Banca Carige – Italy’s tenth largest bank – to safeguard the bank’s financial stability. This was the first time the ECB used these powers so is Carige a foretaste of a new dimension of the slow-burning EU banking crisis? Is this the first bank where, paradoxically, the final nail in the coffin may be IFRS 9 – the accounting standard designed to be the solution to lax accounting before the Great Financial Crash (GFC)? Is the cure worse than the disease? Or is Carige’s new round of problems just an uncomfortable part of the transition to the new world where no bank is too-big-to-fail?

Carige’s lack of profitability puts it at the extreme end of the spectrum in the EU. However, the EBA Transparency Exercise continues to report for the whole banking EU system that “Profitability remains low on average and has not yet reached sustainable levels.” Shareholders may look nervously at the way that Carige is treated and wonder whether they should throw good money after bad at other banks. According to Reuters, the 27.6% owners – the Malacalz family - has invested more than €400 million since 2015. That is now worth little and the family has baulked for the moment at contributing to a further €400 million – the specific trigger for the ECB’s decision. [...]