CFP vs BoW Poll 11/17/2015

CFP and BoW rankings, with difference in ranking between outlets listed in between team names:

11/17/15 poll

CFP

Diff

BoW

1

Clemson

-1

Alabama

2

Alabama

1

Clemson

3

Ohio State

-5

Oklahoma

4

Notre Dame

-2

Iowa

5

Iowa

1

Oklahoma State

6

Oklahoma State

1

Notre Dame

7

Oklahoma

4

Stanford

8

Florida

-1

Ohio State

9

Michigan State

-1

Florida

10

Baylor

-14

Michigan State

11

Stanford

4

Utah

12

Michigan

-5

North Carolina

13

Utah

2

Southern California

14

Florida State

-6

Northwestern

15

Louisiana State

-4

Oregon

16

Navy

-9

Texas Christian

17

North Carolina

5

Michigan

18

Texas Christian

2

Houston

19

Houston

1

Louisiana State

20

Northwestern

6

Florida State

21

Memphis

-6

Arkansas

22

Mississippi

0

Mississippi

23

Oregon

8

Washington State

24

Southern California

11

Baylor

25

Wisconsin

-1

Navy

My formula likes both USC and Oregon more than the committee does, and continues to look down upon Baylor. It sees Oklahoma as the class of the Big XII.

Paths of Least Resistance

Each week, I will highlight the least convoluted path a team can take to get into the playoff. Granted, many alternate scenarios could result in the same outcome for a given team. In the interest of keeping this concise and easy-ish to follow, I’ll only give the clearest scenario and whether or not the team can afford a loss and still make the field of 4.

Clemson: Win out, including ACC CG. Can they lose? Maybe, but they need to win the ACC.

Alabama: Win out, cannot afford a loss.

Ohio St: Win out, including Big Ten CG. Can they lose? Probably not. November losses have shown to be judged harshly by the committee.

Notre Dame: The Big 12 champ needs to lose a game. Oklahoma St would jump them if they win out.

Iowa: Win out, would replace Ohio State.

Oklahoma St: Win out, would replace Notre Dame.

Oklahoma: Need two of top 5 to lose.

Florida: Win out, would replace Alabama.

Michigan St: Win out AND 1 of the following needs to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

Baylor: Win out AND 1 of the following needs to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big Ten champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

All of the teams below cannot get to the top 4 (without Mass Chaos, see below), either due to too many losses, too weak a schedule, no chance to win their division, or a combination of any/all of these.

Florida St

LSU

Navy

North Carolina

TCU

Houston

Northwestern

Memphis

Mississippi

Oregon

Southern California

Wisconsin

Mass Chaos

If your team is currently below the threshold to get in the playoff without mass chaos, here is a chart of the most probable game results needed to create the amount of chaos necessary to completely blow up the paths outlined above. If all of the following happened, there would be zero Power 5 teams with fewer than 2 losses. Some hypothetical game results may seem unlikely, but none would be close to the biggest upset of the season. Bold lettered games indicate a loss to a team not in the current CFP Top 25.

Big XII

Week 12

Oklahoma St loses to Baylor

Oklahoma loses to TCU

Week 13

TCU loses to Baylor

Oklahoma St loses to Oklahoma

Week 14

Baylor loses to Texas

ACC/Independent

Week 13

Clemson loses at South Carolina

UNC loses at NC St

Notre Dame loses at Stanford

Week 14

Clemson loses ACC CG

Big Ten

Week 12

Ohio St loses to Michigan St

Week 13

Ohio St loses at Michigan

Iowa loses at Nebraska

Michigan St loses to Penn St

Week 14

Iowa loses Big Ten CG

PAC12

Entire conference has 2+ losses each

SEC

Week 13

Florida loses to Florida St

Alabama loses at Auburn

Week 14

If Alabama or Florida win their week 13 game, then that team loses the SEC CG

Important games in Week 12:

Michigan St at Ohio St

Baylor at Oklahoma St

TCU at Oklahoma

The winner of Michigan St/Ohio St maintains control of their own destiny. The Big 12 will remove at least 1 contender in the TCU/Oklahoma game, and Oklahoma St can end Baylor’s playoff dreams.