Abstract

To improve population forecasting in the future, demographers should conduct more thorough assessments of the accuracy of past projections. Research should also focus on making greater use of: (1) models that include marriage, divorce, cohabitation, morbidity, and other demographic events that influence fertility, mortality, and migration as well as models that break populations down by educational achievement, employment status, and other variables; (2) models that take account of economic, social, and environmental dynamics, including integrated structural models and models with constraints; and (3) forecasting approaches that systematically quantify uncertainty. A further area that requires rethinking is the appropriate use of expert judgment in population projections. Finally, new ways need to be developed for distributing software for making population forecasts and for disseminating the results of alternative forecasts.