Dodgers signal a change in philosophy

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Brian Wilson, center, and pitcher Zack Greinke watch during the ninth inning of a game in San Francisco this year. The Dodgers are refining their process for player acquisition in an effort to keep pace with NLCS champion St. Louis.

If the Dodgers’ spending spree of a year ago was all just a ruse designed to sell tickets, it worked. More fans came to Dodger Stadium to watch Zack Greinke, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Beckett and Hyun-Jin Ryu — $617 million worth of guaranteed contracts, all employed elsewhere in 2011 — than any other team in baseball.

Of course, the off-season winner isn’t always the winner the following October. It’s a now-tired axiom, proven again when the Boston Red Sox beat the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series. Their 2013 opening-day payrolls ranked fourth (Boston) and 11th (St. Louis) in the majors, according to the Associated Press.

Signing Clayton Kershaw to a long-term extension is the Dodgers’ top priority this winter. Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka is high on their wish list, and he is expected to command the most money ever for an Asian player when he signs a major-league contract.

But the Dodgers aren’t counting on winning the winter free agent sweepstakes to end their 25-year championship drought. They’re counting more on a revised draft strategy, one that mimics the Cardinals and potentially provides less expensive major-league talent in short order.

The Dodgers selected pitchers Chris Anderson and Tom Windle with their first two draft picks last June. Anderson, a right-hander from Jacksonville University, was taken 18th overall. Windle, a left-hander from the University of Minnesota, was taken in the second round, 56th overall.

At the time, the Dodgers weren’t just grabbing who they thought were the best players available. They also were rolling out a new philosophy.

“A little bit of both,” general manager Ned Colletti said. “When you have gaps in the system, you have to fill them.”

The gap Colletti was targeting was mature power pitchers with major league-ready speed. And really, what general manager wouldn’t want a system full of 22-year-old fireballers?

Identifying these pitchers in the draft escalated from a desire to a near necessity. In winning the National League Championship Series, the St. Louis Cardinals accelerated the timetable for turning top prospects into major-league contributors.

Eight of the 11 pitchers the Cardinals used in the series were 26 or younger. Three came from a single draft, 2009, which Sports Illustrated recently profiled in a piece called “Three Days in June” — the time it took to put the finishing touches on the Cardinals’ NLCS roster. Two others, Seth Maness and Michael Wacha, were drafted in 2011 and 2012, respectively.

Advertisement

Is imitation the sincerest form of flattery? A glance at St. Louis’ 2009 draft, and the Dodgers’ most recent draft in June, reveal some strong similarities.

Only one of the Cardinals’ first nine picks in 2009 was a high school player; only one of the Dodgers’ first 12 picks in June was a high schooler. Three of the Cardinals’ first four picks in 2009 were pitchers; three of the Dodgers’ first five picks in June were pitchers.

Anderson and Windle count a hard fastball and slider as their primary pitches. Shelby Miller and Joe Kelly, the Cardinals’ first- and third-round picks, respectively, in 2009, throw a high-90s fastball with an assortment of secondary pitches.

The Dodgers and Cardinals aren’t the only two teams targeting hard-throwing college pitchers in the draft, but their draft strategies came to a head in the NLCS — thanks to Wacha.

Few criticized the Dodgers’ choice of 18-year-old shortstop Corey Seager with the 18th overall pick in 2012. Wacha, 19th overall pick, then beat them twice en route to winning the series’ Most Valuable Player award.

The Dodgers’ higher-ups still are high on Seager. The 19-year-old became the youngest player in the Single-A California League when he was promoted in August and is estimated to be about four years away from being an every-day major leaguer.

Anderson and Windle have the potential to be closer, and major-league readiness is the new key criterion in the draft.

When the rebuilding Houston Astros took a 17-year-old shortstop (Carlos Correa) first overall in 2011, they could wait 5 to 7 years for him to reach the majors. They’re not expected to be in contention until then. A team intent on contending sooner, like the Dodgers, can’t wait that long. The win-now philosophy has extended to the early rounds of the draft.

“We’re still in the process of firming up a lot of our culture and how we do things,” Colletti said recently.

The same deep pockets that allowed Guggenheim Baseball Management to double the Dodgers’ major-league payroll within a year also have been applied to signing draft picks.

That doesn’t help too much, since the last two drafts have been subject to limits on the amount of money teams can spend on their first 10 picks. Even the free-spending Dodgers haven’t been taxed for exceeding the so-called “slot values” in the draft.

But there won’t be a repeat of 2004, when pitcher David Price was drafted by the Dodgers out of high school. According to a source, then-owner Frank McCourt did not approve spending the $2 million the pitcher wanted. Price told teams he was going to college, followed through on the promise, re-entered the draft in 2007, was drafted first overall and has a 71-39 major league record in six seasons since. The Dodgers are rumored to be among the teams interested in trading for Price this winter.

The Dodgers also employ a four-person analytics team, relied on regularly for scouting. That involves videotaping every pitch thrown and every at-bat taken throughout their minor-league system, a key tool for evaluating major-league readiness. These things did not exist when Colletti was hired as general manager in 2006 (the analytics department was a one-person operation then).

There’s also been an uptick in “the number and quality of scouts that we’ve hired,” team president Stan Kasten said. “We’ve been aggressive in doing that.”

The Dodgers’ cultural shift makes it less likely they would sign Hiroki Kuroda, Ubaldo Jimenez, Stephen Drew or any of the 13 free agents who received qualifying offers on Monday. Each would cost the Dodgers a first-round draft pick to sign.

According to statistics compiled by BaseballAmerica.com, 73 percent of players drafted in the first round between 1987 and 2008 reached the majors. For the second round, the rate drops below 50 percent and doesn’t recover.

Wacha’s quick path to the majors offers a cautionary tale. St. Louis acquired the pick used to draft Wacha from the Angels, as compensation for losing Albert Pujols in free agency the previous winter.

Wacha ultimately might be the only player named a League Championship Series MVP within 15 months of being drafted. That’s of little consolation now to the Dodgers, who might consider it a lesson learned.