[The Economist] Promises, promises

Tanzania is still a backwater compared with its Kenyan neighbour to the north
Oct 28th 2010 | BUMBULI

THE parliamentary campaign in Bumbuli, a constituency of 167,000 souls in the mountainous Lushoto district of Tanzania, is a mixture of ancient and modern. January Makamba, the candidate of the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), stands for the modernists. In designer shirt and shoes, he hikes half way up a mountain to a remote village to solicit votes. The villagers are demoralised, with no electricity or road and a poor crop. Down below, a volunteer updates Mr Makambas Facebook page on a wireless internet connection.

Within the CCM, Mr Makamba is in a minority. Educated in the United States, the son of a CCM power broker, he recently quit his job as a speechwriter for Tanzanias president, Jakaya Kikwete, to run in Bumbuli. He wants Tanzania to enter the world market. He hobnobs with Western philanthropists. A copy of The Rational Optimist, a booster of global capitalism, lies on the back seat of his campaign truck.

But now he must prove himself on the ground. He showed his steel by ousting a long-serving CCM parliamentarian. It helps that he comes from the main town, Lushoto, and lived there as a boy. Up in the village he promises fertilisers, medicine, more teachers. Electricity? No, too costly.

Bumbuli is among Tanzanias most densely populated constituencies. Most of its people farm tiny plots too small to be subdivided further. But Mr Makamba has a plan. He wants to borrow $10m from Wall Street philanthropists, to be repaid in ten years. The sum, he says, will be invested in east African treasury bonds and stocks, in the hope of dividends producing $700,000 a year to invest in Bumbuli.

Some of the cash would help farmers package their fruits and vegetables. Mr Makamba dreams of refrigerated lorries owned by the community leaving daily at dawn for Dar es Salaam and Nairobi with Fresh from Lushoto produce. Another project aims to parcel a scenic bit of the constituency and sell it to a university to set up a campus for 5,000-odd students. Turkish investors, he claims, are interested.

It is early days, but a youthful tilt at the presidency in 2015 by Mr Makamba, or someone like-minded, is conceivable. If he took Tanzanias helm, the country might sail ahead. As it is, its economy has been breezing along at 6% this year, faster than Kenyas to the north, yet it still feels slothful by comparison. It has been sliding downwards in the rankings as a spot for investors. Corruption is rife. Crime is up. Dubious businessmen enjoy positions of influence in the ruling party.

Though he has failed to fulfil his early promise, President Kikwete will almost certainly get another five years in the job. Fond of technology and foreign travel, he is known among his ministers as Mr Beep for his habit of texting them to show he cares. But he has seemed wary of radical reform. He is sentimental about Tanzanias socialist past. Most foreign aid-givers, on whom the country still depends for half its budget, are still prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt.

In his expected second term, Mr Kikwete is likely to promote gas exploration in the south, expand mining, and try, as ever, to improve services. Despite a tripling in the education budget, large majorities of children remain illiterate and innumerate, says Rakesh Rajani, a Tanzanian who has researched the performance of primary schools. The country still has far fewer skilled workers than neighbouring Kenya.

The opposition may do a bit better than before but is fragmented. Moreover, the army, which thinks it is must protect the ruling CCM, has tried to bully itand independent journalists. Two opposition parties stand out. Chadema is strong among richer smallholders, most of whom belong to the Chagga people around Mount Kilimanjaro. The Civic United Front is backed by quite a few Muslims on the coast and in the autonomous island of Zanzibar.

But they are too weak to topple the all-powerful CCM. Mr Kikwete and Tanzania will gently potter along. If the likes of Mr Makamba managed to take over the CCM, things might pick up a lot faster. But not, it seems, just yet.

dutcheconomist wrote: Oct 28th 2010 10:28 GMT
These elections are very important not only for Tanzania itself, but also for the wider continent. As a donor-friendly country it is a democratic country; Kikwete might not be such a bad choice...

Under his Presidency the East African Community was installed which later might be remembered as a sort of European Community, which has led to peace and better economic performance of backward regions. Although Kenya is indeed stronger as the newspaper points out, supporting the rural areas with elecrticity and new roads can foster competition, and bring welfare. Kikwete wants Tanzania to enter the world market, something that does not need donor support.

What has gone unmentioned is that he will also build a large highway straight though the Serengeti (world's largest wild-life reservation) and that his party is full of corrupt practices, and has started a greater divide between rich and poor (although the party claims to uphold socialistic appeals). If the President cannot unite the rich northern Christians and turns his eyes away from Zanzibar, things could get nasty. Lets hope all the mining does not give rise to another example of a resource curse.

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mwendah wrote: Oct 28th 2010 11:58 GMT
While the comparison between Kenya and Tanzania is neither here nor there,the two countries, members of the East African Community, have a lot to learn from each other. Most importantly, Kenya needs to observe and absorb lessons on harmony; peace and a more egalitarian (or at least efforts towards this) society from Tanzania. If Kenya would be more harmonious (where everyone, swords drawn, is not watching their back and on the look out for his/her opportunity to "eat") its economy would even be bigger and more prosperous than it is. On the other hand, Tanzania can learn quite a number of lessons on economic vibrancy; enterprise and more competitive politics from Kenya. If either learns from each other, the better for the region. Development in East Africa does not have to be a zero sum game any more--it can and should be a positive sum game.

As for the pretend rapper in Uganda, he's beyond salvage. I doubt he can learn anything that would be of use to Ugandans. However, other more reasonable leaders in Uganda can also learn a number of lessons from Kenya and Tanzania as well as Rwanda. And soon, the biggest student of them all, Southern Sudan.

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Ben_Mtega wrote: Oct 29th 2010 7:15 GMT
I know Tanzania very well, having lived here for 10 years, and I can't remember a single Economist article on the country that hasn't disappointed. There haven't been many, which just makes it all the more frustrating that when Tanzania is covered the analysis is so consistently one-sided. It seems the writer has once again been taken under the spell of CCM's smooth talkers, Makamba in this case, Kikwete in the past, and gives very little room for alternative views.

Some specifics:
1. The claims on Chadema's tribal affiliations are perhaps the most disturbing aspect of the article: this is demonstrably untrue, and exactly what CCM would want the Economist to write just a few days before the election. Chadema's power base lies predominently in young, urban, educated sections of society, and looks set to win seats all over the country this year. The article comes across as having been been fed the point by Makamba (or someone else in CCM) and reproduced it unquestioningly. CCM has been pushing this line regularly during the campaign and it's a very serious accusation in a country that prides itself on having avoided the pitfalls of tribalism that have affected so many of its neighbours.

2. The focus on January Makamba is journalistically justifiable - his emergence in Tanzanian politics is a very interesting development - but surely some balance is needed. The CCM stalwart he ousted was an anti-corruption campaigner, and his well-funded campaign (see Politics, Society & Things: Sneak Preview: Road to Victory Documentary for an example) has some analysts worried about his connections and his ambition. Is he really as different from Kikwete as he seems, as the article suggests?

3. The article gives only passing references to some of the serious problems Tanzania is facing: corruption, crime, dubious businessmen, low standards of education, etc. But where's the analysis of President Kikwete's lenient treatment of grand corruption, to the extent of stumping for some of the main alledged culprits during the current election campaign. This issue goes very deep, yet the article prefers to skim over it.

I could go on, there's much more in the article that does not stand up - Why on earth include a map of Kenya, for example? - but let me instead point interested readers in the direction of more Tanzanian responses to the article at The Economist and Tanzania's Election.

Rarely does the Economist cover Tanzania, so much so that when it does, it's words are picked over in forensic detail by politicians, activists, donors and businessmen within the country. It's such a shame that the articles so rarely do the issues justice.

Imenibidi ni-sign up kwenye The economic immediately. Craps like this should not be left unreciprocated. Hata ivyo kuna vijana wakakamavu wamesha-comment in there, lakini naamini I also need to play my part.