Iīm sitting in front of my computer thinking how to create this thread in the better way possible. About 30 minutes have gone by and the best way I can think of doing so is keeping things as simple as possible. So Letīs begin. Please make sure you have at least, average reading comprehension skills, the more the better. If not, please follow the link at the left, upper corner. Thanks. Stupid questions from spoon feeding requesters and lazy people will be ignored and hidden.

A lot of traders (and wannabes) in this forum know who is CP and a portion of them have attempted to decipher his system and find the indicators he uses. I dont know him or how he trades, if he even uses indicators or what his system is like, nor do I care. However I read part of what he shared among it a phrase, "95% of the time price will close above or below the open, within this statement lies a pot of gold" which reduced to its lowest terms would be Price will trend from the open to the close 95% of the time.

So, what is a trend? A trend is: A general direction in which something is developing or changing. or a pattern of gradual change in a condition, output, or process, or an average or general tendency of a series of data points to move in a certain direction over time, represented by a line or curve on a graph.

What causes a trend and why is it important? A trend is caused by a sequence of high/lows and its important because it will give you a higher probability of reaching your take profit if you trade according to its direction.

So, if most of the time, 95% of the time for example, price will trend and if you follow the trend then you will have an edge and if you have an edge you can beat the odds.

But, how do you determine the trend THE RIGHT WAY? Should you use Moving Averages, TrendLines, MACD, RSI, insertindicatornamehere? The answer is NO. Actually you dont need indicators or lines, all you need is a reference point (candlestick open if you are slow and didnt notice by now) to determine trend. Yes, thats right, thats the only thing you actually need, nothing else. I mentioned earlier a trend is ...a tendency of a series of data points to move in one directionover time...

Now, watch the following illustration of very simple information concerning balanced and unbalanced forces.

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I must say, we as retail traders are unable to move the market with our trading orders, we are subject to the direction the market is going and can do nothing to change it at will. Having said that, we must face trading as if we were betting. While, betting is a form gambling, it is slightly less risky and less uncertain than the former. Betting is defined as predicting the outcome of a future event and placing ‘a wager’ on that outcome. It is a simple attempt to win money by carefully predicting the outcome of a betted event. Here, the skills of a person might help as on the basis on an event, he or she can do some research and predict the outcome of the betted event. read more

Now look at the following illustration. What would the candlestick open be represented like in it? Thats right the line in the ground.

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Now look at the following illustration and pick a side, ask yourself a few things.

Which team would you place a bet 1:10 risk reward that its going to be the winner?

Do you think its 100% sure you will win?

Do you think probabilities are on your side?

What if you place bets on 3 matches and win 1 out of 3 times, or win 2 out of 3 times, or win every time?

Would you still be in profit at the end of the day?

Would you pick your side before the match even starts or rather place bets when you see a team is winning it (you can place bets even if it has already started)?

Would you be patient enough towait until it is clear who is winning to place your bet?

Team on the right are the bulls and team on the left are bears

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Now for the practical part. There are few and simple steps to follow.

Go to Daily chart for any pair and draw a line at the open of the first CS of the month

Go to H4 chart for any pair and draw a line at the open of the first CS of the second week of the month

Go to M15 chart for any pair and wait for the retest of the weekly open line. If we are above it and we are also above the monthly open line, buy. If we are below the line and also below the monthly open line, sell.

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I am sure this is simple enough, you may want to print this and read it a few times. There are many other ways in which you can take advantage of the trend, for example if you see price above daily open and see a triangle pattern breaking to the upside, the probabilities are on your side. You dont need indicators to determine trend. This is the right way to determine trend and thats a fact. I dare you to prove me wrong in this, if you come up with a way to prove I am wrong and this is not the right way to determine trend let me know below. see also

Suggested video before going into the thread FOREX TRADING IS SIMPLE Iīm sitting in front of my computer thinking how to create this thread in the better way possible. About 30 minutes have gone by and the best way I can think of doing so is keeping things as simple as possible. So Letīs begin. Please make sure you have at least, average reading comprehension skills, the more the better. If not, please follow the link at the left, upper corner. Thanks. Stupid questions from spoon feeding requesters...

Also the point its to find an "edge" or the entry point in a single candlestick because "95%" of the time it will CLOSE higher/lower from the open.... right??

EDIT: Lets go even further..

What if i use price based charts and time (a regular timeframe single candle) doesnt matter?? they only measure OHLC (and some combinations too) in price blocks or increments.. what coul we use as an aproach with those?

BTW i trade this way with a very clear "unbalance" as an entry signal/trigger, im just adding and extra point of view to discuss =)

Same principle as this Thread, wich its a solid aproach: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=590623 Also the point its to find an "edge" or the entry point in a single candlestick because "95%" of the time it will CLOSE higher/lower from the open.... right?? EDIT: Lets go even further.. What if i use price based charts and time (a regular timeframe single candle) doesnt matter?? they only measure OHLC (and some combinations too) in price blocks or increments.. what coul we use as an aproach with those? BTW i trade this way with...

Ignored

Do not confuse single Candlestick with single time frame. This thread is focused on monthly Candlestick with multi time frame entry. I see a lot of people doing this, once again, a matter of comprehension skills. Perhaps this system can be applied with daily Candlestick but you would have to go all the way down to M1 or tick charts which is not practical. this is why I choose monthly Candlestick, Iíd rather double or triple my account with 2 trades a month. Remember itís a bet for the team thatís winning (bulls/bears) a 1:10 risk:reward. Te.

no.. i dont confuse them; i meant a single candle stick and timeframe as in 1 candlestick represents 1 unit of the timeframe you are using.. and the "notion" or idea that "95% of the time price will close above or below the open" of that candlestick comes from, nothing else..

{quote}I see a lot of people doing this, once again, a matter of comprehension skills. Perhaps this system can be applied with daily Candlestick but you would have to go all the way down to M1 or tick charts which is not practical.

Ignored

NO its NOT a "comprehension skills" Its that this principle its universal and can be aplied to whatever timeframe you want to trade.. and NO you dont need to go to M1 or tick data to find the entry point, you dont "need" that extreme accuracy in order to have a wining trade (but of course if you could manage to do it the R:R ratio its gona be stupid high)

{quote}this is why I choose monthly Candlestick, Iíd rather double or triple my account with 2 trades a month. Remember itís a bet for the team thatís winning (bulls/bears) a 1:10 risk:reward. Te.

Ignored

Thats a good aproach and a VERY relaxed way to trade =) nothing bad about, in the end its about the person "tolerance" to wait for a trade setup; i could do it in this timeframe BUT im feeling useless and lazy doing nothing every day, at least in the mornings =)

OFF TRACK A LITTLE BIT:

You can gain even more accuracy and consistency from price based charts since the candles areall the same size and of course the high/lows are still there, the cons its to find the proper size and that the candles paints whenever they feel like it :O

If we look at candles thye have tails meaning thye maybe closed down but they have made a higher point the at they open at so first go up then down so how to play this ? some days it crosses the open many times before it close up or down so many trends ? How to deal with this ? Thank You.

If we look at candles thye have tails meaning thye maybe closed down but they have made a higher point the at they open at so first go up then down so how to play this ? some days it crosses the open many times before it close up or down so many trends ? How to deal with this ? Thank You. Best regards

Maybe i missunderstand you please explain to me then, but the same principle is for mounthly candles and weekly also thy have tails goingin one direction first then reverse so the trend is when it moves away from the open on a weekly and mounthly candle it first goes up for example annd then when it have make a upper tail it reverse and goes down.

Here are the current EU UJ 15 min charts.
The red line is the candle that the 4hr weekly open was drawn on, I assume we don't trade until after the weekly line is established.
Would like some opinions as what would be possible trades on these charts. Do we set pending at the lines or after a close above/below lines or after a break and re-test...
Chris

Hi Fxmd, I'm very intrigued by this strategy.
I have a question.
"Go to M15 chart for any pair and wait for the retest of the weekly open line. If we are above it and we are also above the monthly open line, buy."
Very simple. What if all above conditions are met, but price doesn't rebound and cuts through weekly open? Trend might still be bullish. But what is our stop loss?

It's a pity.. To see such valuable threads like that go quiet after a while.
Many look but do not see.
Fxmd, I really appreciate you for synthesizing CP's thoughts and applying it your way.
I believe there are multiple ways to do this.
I interpret his thoughts in a slightly varied way but conceptually it stays the same.
Every pair has the same concept, just different variables.
Many look but do not see.

Think beyond indicators, and colorful charts - go back to basics.
What moves markets?
What can you tell from these movements?
They are predictable. They all go through cycles.
You just have to look - and see.

It's a pity.. To see such valuable threads like that go quiet after a while. Many look but do not see. Fxmd, I really appreciate you for synthesizing CP's thoughts and applying it your way. I believe there are multiple ways to do this. I interpret his thoughts in a slightly varied way but conceptually it stays the same. Every pair has the same concept, just different variables. Many look but do not see. Think beyond indicators, and colorful charts - go back to basics. What moves markets? What can you tell from these movements? They are predictable....

It's a pity.. To see such valuable threads like that go quiet after a while. Many look but do not see. Fxmd, I really appreciate you for synthesizing CP's thoughts and applying it your way. I believe there are multiple ways to do this. I interpret his thoughts in a slightly varied way but conceptually it stays the same. Every pair has the same concept, just different variables. Many look but do not see. Think beyond indicators, and colorful charts - go back to basics. What moves markets? What can you tell from these movements? They are predictable....