Main menu

Kyle Busch: Anatomy of a NASCAR Chase opportunity that got away

September 10, 2012

Kyle Busch came to Richmond with a 12-point lead on Jeff Gordon for a spot in the Chase. Busch left three points out. Photo by LAT PHOTOGRAPHIC

We'll likely never know precisely what team owner Joe Gibbs, driver Kyle Busch and crew chief Dave Rogers talked about following last weekend's Sprint Cup race at Richmond. We can only imagine that Gibbs quietly and calmly told Busch and Rogers to let it go, that what was done was done, that nothing they could do would change anything, and that tomorrow would be a better day.

Well, yeah . . . it would almost have to be. Inexplicably, questionable late-race pit strategy had just lost the No. 18 Toyota team a spot in the 12-driver field for the upcoming Chase for the Championship. Instead of Busch advancing into the NASCAR playoffs, Jeff Gordon took the second wild-card spot (joining Kasey Kahne) by three points over Busch, Rogers and Gibbs.

This is how it happened: Busch started the Federated Auto Parts 400 leading Gordon by 12 points for the final wild-card spot. A Busch win would give him the spot just as a Gordon win would give him the spot. If neither won, Busch needed only to finish the 26-race “regular season” within 12 points of Gordon. If they were tied, Busch advanced based on the “most second-place finishes” tiebreaker, 3-1.

For much of Saturday night, Busch controlled the spot. He outran Gordon throughout the first 275 laps in the 400-lap race and seemed sure to beat him or finish close enough to make the Chase. During a rain interruption at lap 152, Gordon told a TV reporter he needed help all around the 3/4-mile track. He said he and crew chief Alan Gustafson were at a loss because they'd badly missed their chassis setup. Gordon didn't sound utterly defeated, but he didn't sound all that hopeful, either.

From that moment on, though, the No. 24 team turned it around. Gustafson disconnected the rear sway bar, a high-risk/high-reward change that worked wonders. Suddenly, Gordon had one of the fastest cars on the track. As the “lucky dog” during another rain delay at lap 277, he got back on the lead lap. As cars rolled to resume the race, he was 17th and Busch was fifth. By any measure, that was good enough for Busch to take the final wild card.

But after not pitting in the rain -- he was gambling on the race ending short -- Rogers chose to leave Busch out rather than taking on gas and tires. When the race resumed at lap 283, Gordon, on fresh tires, began coming forward and Busch, on worn ones, began going backward. Busch was so far behind when he finally pitted at lap 333 that he lost a lap. Gordon, in the meantime, came through the field to finish second behind Clint Bowyer. Busch finished a lap-down 16th and missed the Chase.

To his credit, Rogers didn't duck the questions. “The Chase is more than one race, but we were certainly in a position to capitalize and make it, but that call . . . I blew it,” he told a member of NASCAR's media staff afterward. “There are no two ways to look at it. I'm pretty honest [and] evaluate myself as hard as I evaluate my guys. It's simple: I just blew it. It was past midnight and I had a feeling if we lost the track [to heavier rain] the race was going to be over. But the bottom line is we were racing the 24 and nobody else. So if I'd pitted when they pitted, even if it did rain out, I would have been one position ahead of them and that would have been enough.

“But when the rain came, I started racing for positions and not racing the 24. I got caught up in the moment of getting the best finish I could, and it ended up costing us. The radar didn't look bad, but it looked worse than the first time the track was red-flagged [by rain at lap 139]. I said, 'If this track is red-flagged for another [52] minutes, this race is over.' In hindsight, it's a really easy call -- and I flat blew it.”

Busch, as is his habit at such times, didn't have much to say other than, “We just didn't get it done.” Gibbs reiterated his faith and support for his crew chief. “We love Dave Rogers,” he said. “He's one of the brightest and the best. We're in this together, and I think we have a great, tight-knit team. We all go out together, and if we have a tough night, we all have a tough night together.”

Gordon, all but given up for dead at the halfway point, said it best: “I can't believe we did it. I just can't believe it.”