Immigration reform: 7 ways that the bill could fail

Ryan Teague Beckwith, Digital First Media

Posted:
01/31/2013 09:41:21 AM MST

A bipartisan group of leading senators announce that they have reached agreement on the principles of sweeping legislation to rewrite the nation's immigration laws, during a news conference at the Capitol in Washington, Monday, Jan. 28, 2013. From left are Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J. The deal covers border security, guest workers and employer verification, as well as a path to citizenship for the 11 million illegal immigrants already in this country. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) (J. Scott Applewhite)

Immigration reform: 7 ways that the bill could fail

Both Republicans and Democrats are moving forward on a plan to overhaul the nation's immigration system. But with so much at stake, there are multiple ways the legislation could fail. Here are seven big ones:

A fight over border enforcement breaks out

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(Scott Olson / Getty Images)

The Senate proposal calls for a commission of Southwest political and community leaders to decide when the border is secure before undocumented immigrants can become citizens. Some Democrats may be leery of giving Republicans such as Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer a say in how the bill is implemented.

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Probability: High. Republicans will want some kind of check to ensure follow-through on enforcement.

Probability: Medium. It will be hard to develop an employment verification system without some kind of ID standards.

Rubio opposes the final bill

Denverpost

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., is not a member of the bipartisan gang of eight senators drafting an immigration overhaul, but he is a key salesman for the proposal to conservative audiences. One Republican pollster said that if Rubio "signals any mistrust or misgivings" with the final bill, it could collapse.

Probability: Medium. As a likely 2016 presidential contender, Rubio has to maintain a difficult balance.

The tea party comes out against it

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David Walker attends a tea party rally in support of Arizona's immigration law in 2010. (AP Photo/Matt York)

The tea party, a loosely affiliated group of conservative activists, rose to prominence in response to President Obama's health care proposal and nearly prevented it from becoming law. If the tea party, or a similar grassroots group, comes out en masse against the bill, it could cause Congress to get cold feet.

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