London Elections 2018 Guide

April 2018

On 3rd May 2018 there will be local elections held across England. Up for grabs will be seats on 34 metropolitan boroughs, the 32 London boroughs, 68 district/borough councils and 17 unitary authorities. There will also be elections for directly elected Mayors in Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Watford.

Earlier this year, we published an historical look at elections in London since 1964. That briefing gave details of the best and worst years for each political party in London, in terms of councils controlled, seats won, and vote share, providing a useful baseline to help make predictions for 3rd May, as well as measure this year’s actual results against.

This latest briefing focuses on what is likely to happen in the London elections on 3rd May itself. As before, Nudge Factory has worked closely on this project with our colleague from Psephos Consulting, Alex Wilson. We analyse a number of different factors – including recent polling, previous election results, scheduled boundary changes, demographic factors – to make predictions for results on a cross-London basis. Predictions are made on the basis of information available as of 28th March: if more London-specific polls are published before 3rd May we might go back and update this briefing based on the new data.

Finally, this briefing is, for reasons of space, restricted to top-line, London-wide analysis. We can provide much more detailed analysis of likely election results and party manifesto commitments for individual London boroughs. Should you require that more comprehensive service, please do get in touch.

Please click on the link below to downloada pdf version of our briefing.