Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Who will win Gujarat Election? (Exit Poll results)

Many people living in India and other parts of world want to know the answer of this question that who will be the next Chief Minister of Gujarat. In the recent few months Gujarat election battle has become a major matter of debate with both Congress and BJP making win in Gujarat election a matter of pride. Congress tried its best to break this strong hold of BJP with dozens of anti Gujarat government TV commercials, big rallies and caste politics. On the other hand, BJP tried to save its stronghold by glorifying the work done in Gujarat by Modi lead government and even taking the slight help of communal sentiments.

Now, people are awaiting the final results of the election when it will become clear that who will be the next CM of Gujarat. Today, Gujarat saw polling for 87 seats in first phase of election and with this, half fate of BJP and Congress has got stored in Electronic Voting Machines. After first phase elections, results of number of exit polls are also available in front of us. Most of the exit polls are giving some relief to BJP despite some loss in total number of seats. As per estimates, now BJP will get around 110-120 seats in Gujarat and Congress will get around 60-70 seats.

This is really good news for the Narendra Modi because he was one of the major face of BJP in this election and to some extent this election has become a fight between Modi and Congress. So far, Congress does not trust these results and they are still optimistic about good result for Congress. However, there is one worrying sign for the BJP that there is decrease in the vote share of BJP and increase in the vote shares of congress. As per the surveys, vote share of BJP out of total votes will remain 42-43% which is quite less than the 50% vote share of BJP in last election.

The reason behind this decrease in vote share could be rebel factor. On the other hand vote share of Congress is supposed to remain 40-41%. These results will be big boosters for Narendra Modi, who is presently facing number of allegations like involvement in riots and killing of Shahabuddin and his wife. For knowing actual results, people are required to wait till 23 Dec when final counting for all the assembly seats will take place.