quote:I'm just trying to wrap my head around the simple math of only 114K in job addition leading to such a huge drop in unemployment.

The only thing that makes sense is that you have many of the same workers moving from Full Time Jobs to Part Time Jobs added to the addition of the 114k actual new jobs. Otherwise the U-6 should have changed as well.

Looks like it was discussed already:

quote:Since most people will not know this, it's up to Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney, in their upcoming debates, to repeatedly state that there 600,000 more part-time workers in September than there were in August, and since U-6 remained unchanged, then the only conclusion is that those 600,000 went from full-time status in one month, or were always in part-time status but were counted as full-time workers. They have enough time to be able to find a way to say this in very simple terms, that the average viewer can understand. Both also need to directly ask their opponent if they will acknowledge that the 7.8% figure represents a major shift in employed persons from full-time to part-time, and suggest this is a trend that will continue in another Obama administration.

They'll be believed by the ignorant masses that don't actually look into data and instead worry about Honey Boo Boo and American Idol.

That's all that matters.

Obama will tout the 7.8% number until he is blue in the face and not explain anything behind it. Romney won't call him on it b/c Americans are to stupid to understand the math behind it. The govt. make shite like this too hard to understand on purpose.

quote:The Presidency of the United States is about more than temporary numbers manipulated to seek re-election. History judges it.

Let me tell you something young man. Every man, and I mean every man, wants to live to fight another day. No president worth his salt has ever sacrificed the possibility of greater glory for some (historically) minor point of accuracy or honesty. History will judge him much more harshly as a one-term president than as a two-term president.

quote:Today’s jobs report is a classic. The report, of course, reveals the results of two surveys, one of households, one of establishments. The professional economists and the press usually emphasize the establishment survey because it is viewed as less volatile. The establishment survey was terrible. The 114,000 number of jobs created on net in September is well below the average for this year (146,000) and the average for last year (153,000). This is wholly consistent with the story that the economy is decelerating sharply as we head into the fall.

quote:Back when President Bush presided over a jobless recovery, the household survey tended to show better news. At the time, every media organization carefully emphasized the establishment numbers, and warned that the household numbers are suspect. That, of course, is what happens when a Republican is in office. For President Obama, you can expect a household survey lovefest. The AP story that went up at 8:33, of course, emphasized the household survey, even adding, “The decline could help Obama, who is coming off a disappointing debate against Mitt Romney.” Get ready for more of the same.