Abstract

AIM:

To estimate the number of people with open angle (OAG) and angle closure glaucoma (ACG) in 2010 and 2020.

METHODS:

A review of published data with use of prevalence models. Data from population based studies of age specific prevalence of OAG and ACG that satisfied standard definitions were used to construct prevalence models for OAG and ACG by age, sex, and ethnicity, weighting data proportional to sample size of each study. Models were combined with UN world population projections for 2010 and 2020 to derive the estimated number with glaucoma.

RESULTS:

There will be 60.5 million people with OAG and ACG in 2010, increasing to 79.6 million by 2020, and of these, 74% will have OAG. Women will comprise 55% of OAG, 70% of ACG, and 59% of all glaucoma in 2010. Asians will represent 47% of those with glaucoma and 87% of those with ACG. Bilateral blindness will be present in 4.5 million people with OAG and 3.9 million people with ACG in 2010, rising to 5.9 and 5.3 million people in 2020, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS:

Glaucoma is the second leading cause of blindness worldwide, disproportionately affecting women and Asians.

The prevalence model data showing age specific prevalence of open angle glaucoma (OAG) for the six major ethnic groups (as defined in Methods) among whom qualifying studies have been performed. Prevalence is highest among the African and Latin American groups.

Prevalence model data for the age specific prevalence of angle closure glaucoma (ACG), highest in the China group, second highest among Japanese, and lowest in European and Indian groups (as defined in Methods).

Prevalence model for Africa group: open angle glaucoma (OAG) data are relatively closely grouped among the studies in age specific prevalence. This, combined with the relatively large number of studies of this ethnicity, results in narrow confidence limits for the prevalence estimates (only five of six qualifying studies are shown). (LCL, UCL = lower and upper 95% confidence limit of model estimate, respectively).