Former Vice President Al Gore might have won the 2000 presidential election if the temperature had been slightly higher on election day, according to a new study.

“Based on our model, an increase of only 1°C (1.8°F) may have made Al Gore the 43rd United States President instead of George W. Bush, as Gore would have won in Florida,” researchers wrote in a study published online Wednesday.

“It is often mentioned that ‘the heat is on’ during presidential campaigns, and our findings indeed clarify that temperature matters when it comes to actual voting,” wrote U.S. and European researchers.

Researchers claim they found evidence increases in state-level temperatures from one election day to the next increase voter turnout, and that warmer weather may even help incumbent parties.

“We found that increases in state-level temperatures from one election to another are related to increases in state-level voter turnout, and increases in votes for the incumbent party,” co-author Jasper Van Assche of Ghent University said in a statement.

But the authors note the overall effect of temperature on elections is “relatively small,” but could matter in close election — like the 2000 presidential election.

President George W. Bush eked out a victory against Gore in 2000 after a close recall in Florida. Had it been slightly warmer, Gore may have won, according to the study.

Interestingly enough, both Gore’s global warming films have segments dedicated to his loss in the 2000 election. Maybe more global warming would have helped?

So how credible is this study? All this writer can say is correlation does not equal causation.

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112 thoughts on “STUDY: Al Gore Might Have Beaten Bush If There Had Been More Warming”

My first though exactly, followed by where is the qualifier, or there it is “…may have made Al Gore…”

STFU researcher Jasper Van Assche of Ghent University and all the other “..U.S. and European researchers.” This is just more Post-Modernist propaganda completely fabricated out of whole cloth and unverifiable.

What’s wrong with models?
F=ma is a model. PV=nRT is a model. Needs a lot of fudge factors in the real world, but pretty functional at modelling the behaviour of most gases under changing conditions. Search ideal gas law if you are not familiar with this model. Here is another, entirely empirical. W=Wi*10*((1/P^.5)-(1/F^.5)). Works great. You have to apply the 8 fudge factors, but works great at modelling the power required by a ball mill to grind rock. Search Fred Bond work index if you are not familiar with this empirically derived model. The utility of a model is determined by its ability to predict. Climate models don’t do a very good job of predicting anything useful. As such they are mostly useless. Not because they are models, but because they are models that don’t predict. You did know that those equations you learned in high school science were models didn’t you?

The time and place where I was first exposed to F=ma, PV=nRT, etc. was in high school in the early 1960s in Washington State, and we called them formulas. In college in the mid 60s the formulas were expressed as functions; and in grad-school I was exposed to simulation & modeling using computers. So when I think of modeling – particularly in the context of climatology – I think of algorithms implemented in compute programs – not static formulas.

The problem here, and with climate models, is that we are dealing with a chaotic system. Even the IPCC admits that climate models can’t make actual predictions because of that.

In this case, if there had been a greater increase in warming, and if Florida had actually been in danger, the other candidates would have reacted. We have no idea of who would have been the Republican candidate for instance.

With chaotic systems, like human affairs and the climate, there are so many confounding variables that precise prediction is impossible.

“Force = mass times acceleration” is not a model, it’s a definition (unless I’m mistaken).

My understanding is that such definitions tell us nothing falsifiable (or verifiable) about the natural world. They’re purely analytic; they weren’t derived empirically, and can’t be tested empirically.

A model is a bird or a guy (note my PC acceptance there) strutting a catwalk, on the front of a glossy fashion magazine, or displaying their ripped bodies in a movie. They represent what filmakers imagine what we should all aspire to, and represent their illusion of reality.

Truer than you realize. All of us if we know anything, know it because we have modelled the world into a coherent picture.

Models are our only route to knowledge. That is not the problem. It is models that do not work, that is the problem.

And therein lies the fault in Left Brain thinking. Models define the reality that we experience, and define human behaviour, but they do not define whatever is the case, beyond human conception of it.

Left thinking teaches people to understand everything in terms of a righteous natural world oppressed by a class of capitalists who have taken ownership, enslaved the people and threaten to damage the world.

This is why it is so necessary for any who have wealth to spend their time virtue signalling their dedication to political correctness – the shape of the Revolution.

It is a model that is popular, because it makes small minds who want to be bigger minds feel empowered. Their failure is due to the Establishment. Marxism is ultimately the refuge of sore losers. It excuses failure, and turns it instead into resentment.

The problem is, it doesn’t work. Not to create a coherent society: it is inevitably destructive creating societies that hate themselves.

Contrast the fairy tale it replaced, of skygods That actually made people humble, and accept failure, but strive to be better. A very handy thing for civilisation to believe in.

What can you say? Jesus told kinder stories than Karl Marx, and both were lapsed Jews…?

Things have taken a bad turn. In my youth we aspired to human rights and equal treatment for all. Black voters should be registered and their kids should have a good education. Women should be able to aspire to the highest offices in the land. etc. etc.

Now, the left sees everyone as an oppressed minority deserving special rights and protections. I am the oppressor because I’m a white male no matter what I do or the what are contents of my heart. That is absolutely no way to build social cohesion. It’s also corrosive to the ‘victims’ because they will blame their victimhood for everything and won’t strive to make themselves better. link

Christianity was a solid anchor for our society. Marxism doesn’t come close to being a viable replacement.

The best takedown of left brain thinking is The Master and His Emissary by Iain McGilchrist. He points out that folks whose right brains are disabled have certain characteristics, the main one being that they become disconnected from reality.

Gore might have beaten Bush if the Republicans hadn’t been able to rig the shonky US election system. Gore as president would have probably done a bit less harm than Bush as president, and a lot less harm than Gore as prophet of Man Made Global Warming.

RoHa you have it wrong if the Republicans hadn’t been able to rig the shonky US election system.

Statistical analysis of the election results from down ballot voters, extra percentage of votes for president vs not votes, and the physical improbability of creating a ‘Hanging Chad’ on a single card punch. Review states the Gorical & team took a wire punch and in a couple of counties Double Punched about 35,000 cards, most thru Al’s name, but about 5000 thru Buchanan’s name. Algore’s team just miscalculated how much he was loosing by. Great paper, but cannot refind from 2001 timeframe.

Gore as president would likely have been a weak-tea precursor to Obama, just as blindly leftist. He might or might not have bowed to Arabian potentates, but he would have done plenty of damage in other ways. His doctrinaire wrongness on climate would have cost us just as dearly as Obama’s did.

o My Parkinson’s disease began to exhibit when I became tired, in spite of many people trying to help me keep my true condition hidden.

o I was tired often, and so unable to campaign in many states.

o I was unlikable, to the point many said I was officious, nasty, vindictive and bitter.

o I was selfish and controlling, and I joined with many other high Obama administration officials who conducted my official government business using a private e-mail address in violation of law.

o My only agenda was the continuation of that of my far left, socialist predecessor. Open borders, political correctness run amok, the appeasement of Islamist facists, more redistrbution, more regulations, less freedom, more power in the hands of regulators and federal bureaucrats, high rates of taxation, lower spending on military readiness, higher spending on welfare, health care, and entitlements, eternal deficits and growing debt without end, onerous energy costs due to hostility towards fossil fuels and the fiction of CO2 as a pollutant, and the normal tribal victim group identity politics of the Democratic party.

o I never articulated a personal vision for why I wanted to be president, at least not any beyond my own personal ambition, a sense of entitlement that it was “my turn.”

o I lied often. I made it clear that only a fool could possibly trust me.

o I blacked out and fell down, having my handlers catch me and carry me into my van. It’s a good thing I was catheterized or the world would have seen me wet my pants, too.

o Finally, more states voted for Donald Trump than voted for me. But it was MY TURN!

By that time, people are talking about how cold it is regardless if it is warmer than previous years.

Why are they always trying to find excuses for why their left-wing candidate didn’t win? How about the simple explanation that 51% of the voting population didn’t want them to be President. Why didn’t Hillary win? She didn’t have that other 2% or 3% that wanted her to lead. She still got a sizable number but she needed to capture another 2%.

Gore was even worse than Hillary in terms of getting the over-the-top vote which is always the question.

Weatherwise, other states are very different than Florida in early November. While cold and rainy weather in more northern states might restrict voter turn out, early November weather in Florida is usually ideal for going out and about. It is highly unlikely that any election day in Florida is going to be ‘too cold’ for voting, nor would voter turn out in the Sunshine State be boosted by warmer temperatures. Warmer temperatures might actually hurt voter turnout in Florida. One simply connect take what happens in other states and apply it to the very different climate of Florida.

It looks like another study that doesn’t pass the 5th grade science fair standard.

No matter what happens, the media will once again try to sell the ridiculous notion that the Federal Government should be able to take the disaster out of natural disasters. Since that is impossible, Trump will fail, no matter how good the response is. I am sure the media is already writing their scathing reviews.

Harvey looks to be a very bad situation. After slamming the coast near Corpus Christi tomorrow evening, it is likely to meander over Southeast Texas for almost a week! That is a nightmare scenario for flooding, making rescue and relief efforts extremely difficult. One local official in the linked article above spoke to the reality of the situation:

“Long has stressed in interviews with The Washington Post that state and local officials need to improve their emergency readiness and recognise that it is not the federal government’s responsibility alone to respond to natural disasters.

Long has also urged citizens to understand that they will often be their own first responders in a crisis.”

That is the message that emergency management has been trying to convey for decades. The national media does a huge and dangerous disservice when it implies that the Feds should be their to take care of everything, as if federal employees and vehicles are somehow immune to the high winds and flooded roads that are a disaster to everyone else. FEMA will do the best it can, and the President will have very little to do with it.

It’s just a shame that the media makes it worse with misinformation, and then tries to blame the President, who has less responsibility for the problems than they do.

The panhandle of Florida contains a lot of military bases, and they tend to vote Republican. The fact that the news media reported a Gore win BEFORE the poles closed in the panhandle isn’t mentioned. A lot of people heard that and dropped out of line. The vote would have been even less close if that hadn’t happen. The MSM are a piece of …..? Need I say more?

Lots of things went on in the MSM to try to put Gore in office then (and Hillary this last time).

One thing I’d like to see is a law that an election for a Federal office “results” for a state can’t be declared/called until after all that states polls have closed.
(The Florida panhandle is in a different time zone than the rest of the state.)
“Freedom of the Press”?
When they “declare” a state, they are not expressing an opinion. They are declaring a fact.
If the vote in Florida was that close, why declare that Gore had won before all the polls were closed?

While this study might be correct it is worth pointing out as they did that in a close election almost anything can change the outcome. And the closer the election the more of a role tiny things can play. In the 2000 election Florida was essentially a tie and the winner was determined not by the number of votes but rather by the courts interpretation of which votes should be counted.

Another example would be that Gore would have won if the ballots had been better designed so 5000 or so Palm Beach County residents would have cast their vote for Gore rather than Pat Buchanan by mistake.

Let me clear up some things. First you must realize that the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections was a Democrat and the ballots were approved by the Democrats in charge. In 1996 they had the same problem but because Bill Clinton won Florida by a good margin no one complained. But they did file that info away for use in later elections should there be a close call, which is what happened in 2000. They had an army of lawyers on standby and they descended on Palm Beach County immediately when it looked bad for Gore. Second, the U. S. Supreme Court intervened because the Florida Supreme Court was changing the election law by decree. All election results had to be certified and filed with the Florida Secretary of State by a certain date in accordance with Florida law so that the results could determine which party would select the electors and have them vote and submit that result as prescribed by Federal law. The FSC attempted to change the law and give an unlawful extension to that date which put the Florida vote in jeopardy of not being certified in time for the electors to be selected, vote and certify that result on time. The FSC was almost all Democrats and their purpose was to delay the Florida vote past the Federal deadline thus keeping electoral votes from going to Bush. The FSC had no authority to make changes to the State voting law and thus the USSC stepped in to nullify the FSC interference and uphold the Florida deadline as the law prescribed. That forced Palm Beach County to certify their vote by the lawful deadline without delay.

Nice summary, Tom. I lived in Florida at the time and had to keep telling my relatives elsewhere what was really going on. The liberal MSM just couldn’t except and report the facts. What the FSC tried to do was clearly illegal and blatantly partisan. It was embarrassing.

After the US Supreme Court slapped down the Gore recounts, the Miami Herald actually undertook an effort to recount the Miami-Dade and Broward County under-vote ballots, just as Gore was asking. The process was moot, of course, but this was a very leftist paper, a paper that desired a Gore victory, behaving like a sore loser in a poker game, who, after folding his hand and handing the pot to the winner, also demands to see what card would have been dealt to him had he not folded. Anyway, they did the count, and the result actually transferred a few votes from Gore to Bush, expanding his lead from around 600 votes to more than 1000. Al Gore knows all about this, but he never mentions it.

I’d just like to add “Thank you all you stupid Ralph Nader voters in Florida!” And to remind my fellow republicans, conservatives, libertarians, Libertarians, and Republicans, and Independents, too, not to be a stupid Ralph Nader voter when it comes to voting in YOUR next election.

“Another example would be that Gore would have won if the ballots had been better designed so 5000 or so Palm Beach County residents would have cast their vote for Gore rather than Pat Buchanan by mistake.”

The Left claims those votes were done mistakenly, but how do they explain the thousands of votes Pat Buchanan got the previous time he ran in Florida in the same voting districts? Perhaps those who voted for Buchanan before, decided to vote for him again in 2000.

I believe the left will eventually achieve their greatest dream by downloading their conciousnesses into computers that will allow them to live forever within their models where they control everything, and there are never any bad consequences for any action. The twist will come when they realize that they have trapped themselves in a universe where the future is always known, there is no chaos, there are no surprises, and they go mad from boredom.

Gore would have won the presidential election but he lost his home state of Tennessee. Actually, he lost it twice. He was a US Senator until the people of Tennessee, fed up with his lies, voted him out. When he ran for president and the people of Tennessee had another opportunity, we rejected him again. Stockpiling tar and feathers in case he ever comes back.

Hmmm….
But Floridians could have wrapped themselves in a blanket to go out and vote if it was a cold day.
Maybe it was the lack of a predicted hurricane or other intensifying severe weather that would predict in the future because of our past and present and present CO2 emissions is what caused his past failure?
Oh, wait. Wasn’t the “Ozone Hole” his thing back then?
He lost because he was “out in the ozone”?