Meteorologist Paul Douglas writes about Minnesota weather daily, trying to go beyond the "highs" and "lows" of the weather story to discuss current trends and some of the how's and why's of meteorology. Rarely is our weather dull - every day is a new forecast challenge. Why is the weather doing what it's doing? Is climate change a real concern, and if so, how will my family be affected? Climate is flavoring all weather now, and I'll include links to timely stories that resonate with me.

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Unsettled Weekend & Summer Returns Next Week

Todd's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

SATURDAY: Nicer day of the weekend: Mix of clouds and sun. Winds: SE 8-13. High: 80

SUNDAY: More clouds and unsettled with a chance of an isolated shower or storm in the AM and again late afternoon/evening - better chance overnight. Winds: SSE 8-13. High: 81

MONDAY: Heavy showers and continuing T-storms with locally heavy rain generally through the first half of the day. A few strong storms popping up in the afternoon are possible along the MN & WI border. Low: 68. High: 83

Welcome to your first OFFICIAL weekend of summer, how does it feel? Of course, summer rang in last Tuesday at 12:16pm CDT as the sun's most direct rays shined over the Tropic of Cancer at 23.5 degrees latitude north. With that said, we are in the midst of some of the longest days of the entire year with nearly 16.5 hours of daylight. On a clear night, twilight seems to last forever and by the time you get up for the day, it seems as though the sun has been up forever. Ahhhh, it sure is nice to be tilted towards the sun isn't it... I like the changing seasons, but summer is one of my favorites, especially being from Minnesota and knowing what comes to life during these wonderful 3 months. We definitely earn our summers here and should enjoy every moment that we can when the weather is in deed summery.

I'd like to say that this weekend will be flawless, but naturally, we have something in the works. I don't think it'll be a washout, but this halfway decent weekend will have a few ups and downs. With as many graduation parties that are going on right now, folks that spent a few extra $$ on a party tent may vindicated, while those who are 'chancing' it will be crossing fingers, toes and eyeballs, hoping that the rain holds off. Let's check the forecast...

A weak disturbance out in the Dakotas will continue to creep eastward. Chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase throughout the weekend with the best potential of soggy weather into the afternoon/evening hours of Sunday.

Saturday's Weather Outlook

The disturbance, for the most part, should remain to our west, but we can't rule out a few rogue showers or storms that meaner eastward into Minnesota during the morning hours and decide to pop up once again into the afternoon. The afternoon outlook has a couple of scattered blobs of precipitation over Minnesota, but the bulk of the heavy rain/thunder looks to stay well south of us into Iowa.

Severe Thunderstorm Risk for Saturday

Note how most of MN is under the yellow coloring, which indicates a 'general thunderstorm' risk - the best chance for thunder, some potentially strong to severe in the orange coloring is either well to our west in South Dakota or well to our south.

Saturday Rain Totals

The image above shows the rains totals from 7pm Friday thru 7pm Saturday - the good news here is that most of the state looks to stay mostly dry... Again, I think Saturday will be the pick day of the weekend!

Sunday Weather Outlook

(NAM Interpretation )

The NAM has most of the active weather during the day on Sunday well west of the Twin Cities, but we will have the remnant blow off clouds from that stuff, so Sunday does appear to be the cloudier day of the weekend.

(GFS Interpretation)

The GFS has the rain/thunder chances closer to the Twin Cities, which would indicated that there might be a better chance at seeing rain/thunder during the day Sunday.

Sunday Severe Storm Chances

The severe thunderstorm chances for Sunday are creeping close to the Twin Cities metro. The orange color indicates a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather. If the system speeds up any, we may have to monitor the potential of late day strong to severe storm watches and warnings closer to home PM Sunday.

Sunday Rain Totals

The 7pm Saturday thru 7pm Sunday rain totals are creeping up as well. Although the heaviest of the rain looks to stay well south and west of the the Twin Cities, we may have to dodge a few rain drops from time to time... Again, at this point, I don't think it'll be a complete wash out, so if you have any outdoors plans, you should be alright, but have a plan 'B' just in case.

Sunday Night Thunder Looking Likely

Regardless of what Sunday brings, Sunday night IS looking wet. Showers and thunderstorms may develop across western Minnesota and rumble eastward overnight with the potential of some strong to severe stuff and also the chance at some locally heavy rain.

7pm Sunday Thru 7pm Monday Rain Totals

The image above shows the rain totals from Sunday night thru Monday. Latest computer models are suggesting another nice lawn watering with some spots getting over 1" - maybe even close to 2" if heavy thunderstorms develop!

Summer Returns Next Week

A look ahead to next week - it shows a fairly good shot at rain early Monday and perhaps a few strong storms on Monday afternoon along the MN/WI border, but summer heat and humidity makes a return for the later half of next week. By Wednesday, high temps jump up into the mid/upper 80s with dew points in the 60s. Thursday we have a shot at the 90s with high humidity values and again on Friday! Hope you like summer because here it comes again!

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About Me

Welcome to my weather blog. Every day I sift through hundreds of stories, maps, graphics and meteorological web sites, trying to capture some of the most interesting weather nuggets, the stories behind the forecast. I'll link to stories and share some of the web sites I use.
I'm still passionate about the weather, have been ever since Tropical Storm Agnes flooded my home in Lancaster, PA in 1972. I've started 5 weather-related companies. "EarthWatch" created the world's first 3-D weather graphics for TV stations - Steven Spielberg used our software in "Jurassic Park" and "Twister". My last company, "Digital Cyclone", personalized weather for cell phones. "My-Cast" was launched in 2001 and is still going strong on iPhone, Android and Blackberry. I sold DCI to Garmin in 2007 so I could focus on my latest venture: WeatherNation.
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Twitter name: pdouglasweather