Tuesday, October 13, 2015

NCAA FOOTBALL 2015: Week Six Review According to SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index]

Here is the second CFB SBPI installment of the 2015
season.To read more about how I
calculate my ratings look back at last
week's entry that also has links to other entries surrounding this topic.

Without further ado here are the Top 25 rankings through
action on Saturday October 10.The
columns OFF/DEF/TOTAL represent where each team statistically ranks across 128
teams in the FBS; we also include the AP Poll, USA Today Poll, ESPN’s FPI &
Sagarin’s rankings which can all be used as a solid comparison tool followed by
each team’s SOS adjusted RATING and RANK:

UNIT RANKS RAW

RANKS

SOS ADJ #'s

Team

OFF

DEF

TOTAL

AP

USAT

FPI

SAG

RATING

RANK

Clemson

24

9

3

5

6

10

5

272.2

1

Alabama

43

5

7

10

9

3

1

267.6

2

Stanford

5

35

7

15

16

14

7

264.3

3

Florida

49

7

12

8

11

13

9

254.7

4

Iowa

22

17

4

17

17

41

26

252.2

5

West Virginia

19

19

5

38

22

27

249.0

6

Boise State

24

3

2

21

20

17

11

247.9

7

Notre Dame

7

41

14

14

13

8

12

247.0

8

TCU

2

46

6

3

3

2

4

246.4

9

Michigan

84

1

20

12

14

15

3

237.9

10

Georgia

29

26

16

30

28

12

19

232.7

11

California

16

40

22

23

23

25

23

232.6

12

Arkansas

16

79

41

24

38

231.0

13

Florida State

15

26

10

11

8

19

17

230.7

14

Pittsburgh

82

4

24

47

41

229.9

15

USC

20

48

30

33

35

5

6

229.1

16

Texas A&M

10

52

26

9

10

6

13

227.7

17

Georgia Tech

35

51

37

23

32

227.2

18

Utah

20

65

35

4

7

20

8

226.8

19

Wisconsin

57

7

14

31

30

22

225.0

20

LSU

39

29

24

6

5

7

16

224.6

21

Oklahoma State

49

25

27

16

15

21

18

220.1

22

Virginia Tech

57

33

35

32

44

211.6

23

Tennessee

32

72

49

42

16

24

211.1

24

Ohio State

53

21

22

1

1

9

14

209.2

25

Breakdown of Top
25 by conference:

AAC

0

ACC

5

B10

4

B12

3

CUSA

0

IND

1

MAC

0

MWC

1

P12

4

SEC

7

SUN

0

Here are
additional teams of note that did not make the SBPI Top 25 but were ranked
inside the Top 25 of at least one of the other four sources I use for
comparative purposes:

#26 Duke (#25 AP, #24 USAT)

#28 Washington (#20 SAG)

#29 Ole Miss (#13 AP, #12 USAT, #4 FPI, #10 SAG)

#30 UCLA (#18 AP, #18 USAT, #18 FPI, #21 SAG)

#31 Northwestern (#20 AP, #21 USAT)

#33 Oklahoma (#19 AP, #19 USAT, #11 FPI, #15 SAG)

#35 Michigan State (#7 AP, #4 USAT)

#36 Baylor (#2 AP, #2 USAT, #1 FPI, #2 SAG)

#40 Houston (#24 AP)

#46 Memphis (#22 USAT)

#51 Kansas State (#25 SAG)

#56 Toledo (#22 AP, #25 USAT)

Let’s take a look
at the relationship between SBPI & record in matrix form (there is a 71%
correlation between SBPI ranking & wins):

Record

Top 25

Top 36

Top 50

6-0

5

6

6

5-0

5

6

9

5-1

5

8

9

4-1

2

5

5

4-2

2

4

6

3-2

2

3

5

3-3

2

2

3

2-3

3

2-4

2

2

4

So of the Top 25 SBPI teams 10 are undefeated, 15 have at
worst one loss & just 2 are under .500 (Arkansas & Georgia Tech); those
two teams have played the 2nd & 7th toughest schedules
in the country, respectively, which boosts their rating – if we remove SOS
& simply judge strength on performance Arkansas is 41st &
Georgia Tech is 37th (3rd numerical column in first
matrix).Of the SBPI Top 50 almost half
(24) of the group has a record of 6-0, 5-0 or 5-1 while 29 of the 50 have 0 or
1 losses.The SBPI, and looking at it in
this sort of breakdown, can add value by seeing which teams have suffered
perhaps from “bad luck” so far [playing better football than their record
indicates], or teams that may have been “lucky” this year [rating lower on the
SBPI scale than their record suggests].

Here are the five
lowest rated SBPI teams that have a winning record:

#110 South Alabama 3-2

#97 Marshall 5-1

#96 Tulsa 3-2

#95 Washington State 3-2

#91 Georgia Southern 4-1

Strength of each
conference taking average RATING of ALL TEAMS:

SEC

81.46

ACC

80.16

IND

80.09

P12

79.68

B10

78.22

B12

77.32

AAC

72.74

MWC

71.42

MAC

71.37

CUSA

67.68

SUN

64.39

Next up let’s look
at the Top 10 non-Power 5 conference teams (excluding Notre Dame):

UNIT RANKS RAW

RANKS

SOS ADJ #'s

Team

OFF

DEF

TOTAL

AP

USAT

FPI

SAG

RATING

RANK

Boise State

24

3

2

21

20

17

11

247.9

7

BYU

83

55

71

201.4

38

Temple

66

9

18

198.8

39

Houston

3

44

7

24

198.4

40

South Florida

56

41

40

192.5

43

Ohio

40

22

17

192.2

44

Memphis

4

81

31

22

191.0

46

Utah State

102

11

45

190.8

47

Middle Tennessee

30

74

48

189.7

48

Air Force

49

32

32

187.7

50

Here are the
Bottom 10 teams:

UNIT RANKS RAW

RANKS

SOS ADJ #'s

Team

OFF

DEF

TOTAL

AP

USAT

FPI

SAG

RATING

RANK

Troy

126

102

120

84.6

119

Fresno State

118

117

122

81.1

120

Georgia State

90

119

112

80.3

121

Idaho

108

121

120

78.6

122

Miami (Ohio)

125

107

122

77.0

123

Kansas

113

125

126

73.6

124

UCF

127

98

124

70.1

125

Hawai'i

128

100

127

67.3

126

New Mexico State

103

126

125

66.0

127

North Texas

121

126

128

50.5

128

New analysis for
this week per a request is showing the Bottom 5 Power 5 conference teams:

UNIT RANKS RAW

RANKS

SOS ADJ #'s

Team

OFF

DEF

TOTAL

AP

USAT

FPI

SAG

RATING

RANK

South Carolina

97

111

109

123.0

104

Virginia

104

112

113

119.3

105

Maryland

114

106

114

107.1

109

Purdue

120

94

114

99.3

115

Kansas

113

125

126

73.6

124

No wonder Steve Spurrier decided to hang up the ole visor
for now down at South Carolina!

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