Caps Corner

Shout outs from the fans

Monday, March 2, 2009

Ok, so here we go again with another monthly watch list. Once again I ended up with over 50 stocks from my set of screens; which is way too many for me to actively watch. So I have come up with a short list which starts off with my top 10, which I will actively watch and base my results on. The rest I will watch for any interesting patterns or significant entry points.

Top 10:

GIGM – I still like. It has now fallen below the start of the year price, is almost at the last low base before it started it’s last breakout and is below the 50dayMA. WATCH.

POWR – Energy controls, management and backup. Up nearly 30% since end of Dec. lately possibly leveling off at new base just under $4. Good interesting play on economic rescue and rebound in energy/utility.

BITI – Bio-Engineering that instead of developing a couple specific products or drugs, provides a couple key services for developing bio-engineering products and data-imaging analysis. I kind of like that. It had a positive reaction to its last earnings release, appears to be in a stable trading pattern and is currently at the low end of the trading range.

UEPS – Still on my watch list from last month. Had a good run and looking to break the 15 barrier.

MR – Two areas I love to hate and hate to love. China and Medical equipment. This company is actually fairly well run and worth watching. Still hitting the short lists but has really taken a dive lately. They are reporting earnings this week and that might, emphasize, might just provide a stopping point and establish a base for a turnaround. Dropping below 18 now it is nearing its former baseline for support. Last time it went up to almost 24 (nearly 30%).

CKSW – Click Software – OK, this is one that I wish I had seen 2 months ago. It was on one of my screens but for various reasons never made it anywhere close to my short listings. Business of workforce management and data analysis. Definitely a well run and strong company but after such a quick upswing might pull back a bit. Looks like it could be in the tail end of cup-handle formation – which is always hard to tell if it will break out up of the handle or drop. I usually do not like to get in at what appears to be the top end of a stock swing and this stock is back up to it’s previous yearly high levels. But is is a good well run company that is in really good shape and that is a good thing in todays market / economy. Lets keep an eye on this one.

DGLY – Law enforcement, Security, Video-Data. This company had a record year last year and seems to be holding a good base just above $3. Currently appears to be recovered from a recent pull back from 2 highs experience after yearly results. I think once the market figures out that this company is due to rebound it will take off.

GME – Still on my watch lists and worthy of a look at a good entry point. Two consecutive months with positive gains.

MDR – McDermott International. Industrial Goods and Construction. Now why would I bring this company up in todays economy? Three reasons.International Offshore Oil fabrication, design, and management.Governmental Restoration Services, supplies and equipment for Gov. Nuclear programs and sites.Fossil Fuel and Steam Generator components for a whole host of applications such as nuclear steam generators, services utility and industrial power generation systems, including boilers used to generate steam in electric power plants, pulp and paper making, chemical and process applications, and other industrial uses. Again, international.They are up nearly 10% for the year and report Monday.I see all three areas growing in the coming years.

MOS - was on my cut list last month. I still like this company and will continue watching it. For the month of February it had a 20.00% gain. This was and continues to be, in part, fueled by take-over rumors. There was an article on Seeking Alpha that seemed to hint that this coming week might show some take-over news, but then again, it may just be somebody trying to spin up interest. If you are not adverse to risk and willing to take a chance, this might be worthwhile taking a gamble on in the short term. This past Friday rumors alone sent the stock up over 8% for the day.

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Listed below are the stocks that I think are worthwhile to watch but not on my top 10 list for this month.

CGAG – Another one that seems totally strange to me. I need to do more research on this one.

AMED – This was one of my favorite long term investment watches and plays before the bubble burst. They are a good strong company in the Healthcare field which plays well for all us aging baby boomers. Lately it has been absolutely killed by the announcements of medicare Medicaid cuts and reforms. Though necessary for Medicare/Medicaid survival, its biggest impact seems to be the anticipated profits of firms such as AMED. It has a whopping 50% short balance and seems to be being way oversold – Perhaps. It is now at over a two year low. Can it go lower? Hard to tell at this early stage but my bet is that this company will maintain long term success and will bounce back well. The hard question is just when and where (at what price) will it bounce back. Definitely a close watch! Last time it got hammered in Nov it bounced back over 20%

FSLR – Want to Gamble? For Sale. Well run solar company getting hammered for being honest with the next 1 – 2 year outlook. Everybody who was saying how great Solar and alternative energy stocks were a month ago are now saying RUN! This is another example of a stock which probably will bounce back but; again, this one is currently being oversold (possibly) and I am not sure where the bottom is going to be.

ARGN – Auto component company – Seats, etc. Good for long term when Auto industry recovers.

AOB – Bio-Pharm company in China. Either I love to hate this stock or I hate to love this stock. I can’t make up my mind. It seems to be falling like a rock, but could experience a bounce back up once it finds support. Just can’t bring myself to try and figure out where. Probably will take this one off the list for now.

DJCO – OK this is one in a dying industry, Newspaper Publications; but I am still strangely attracted to it. Here is why…It also publishes California Lawyer and 8-K magazines, and provides various specialized information services. In addition, the company supplies case management software systems and related products to courts and other justice agencies, including district attorney offices and administrative law organizations. Further, it serves as a newspaper representative specializing in public notice advertising and commercial advertising, such as display and classified advertising.No, I am not a lawyer, but I do know Lawyers will spend money on their profession and organizations. Plus, this company is a bit strangely diversified and, has held up reasonably well, considering the rest of the market, and; though I may not completely understand why, I am intrigued enough to find out.

PBR – Reports this week. Might be worth a gamble but prices are down and recently downgraded. A good play for all you contrarians.

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