General (early) thoughts on the 2014 draft

It’s still way too early to get a handle on next years draft, but I’ve had a chance to rattle through some tape in between changing a baby, feeding a baby and trying, in vain, to entertain a baby.

So here we go.

Top quarterback prospect – Zach Mettenburg (QB, LSU)

Teddy Bridgewater is getting the most attention, but Mettenburg is quickly developing into the superior player. He’s taken giant leaps this season after an underwhelming first year at LSU.

He lacks the mobility and elusiveness a lot of teams are looking for, but as a pure pocket passer he has a complete skill set. He’s reading coverages like a pro. Mechanically he’s sound with a good arm — and he makes very few mistakes.

The game against Georgia, even in defeat, cemented his position as a legit pro-prospect. One throw to Jarvis Landry really stood out — a downfield bullet into the tightest of windows, hitting his receiver right in the hands despite triple coverage. It’s a great example of Mettenberger’s accuracy, arm strength and ability to make big plays. Yet the performance on the whole was a masterclass. He was one step ahead of the Bulldogs defense all afternoon.

Bridgewater is a fine prospect, but he’s a little over hyped. It’s assumed he’ll be the first quarterback off the board in much the same way it was assumed Geno Smith would be last year. He won’t sink like Smith (he’s a better player) but he’s no lock to be the first QB off the board. Like Mettenberger, Bridgewater isn’t the most mobile quarterback — neither is going to be running the read option. And in the key areas such as pocket presence, accuracy, arm strength and touch — Mettenberger gets the edge.

Both players could easily be top ten picks. But out of the two, right now, I think Mettenberger will be the first off the board. There’s plenty of time for that to change.

Who knows what the Cleveland Browns are planning to do with their two first round picks, but Mettenberger looks like a great fit for Norv Turner’s scheme. If they have to move up, could he be the guy they target?

I also want to say this is a better quarterback class than I initially anticipated. Watching tape over the last 6-7 days, I’ve been impressed with a handful of guys. Today in particular opened my eyes up to a couple of players. You’ll see the change in my rankings later.

Top offensive playmaker – Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, LSU)

It’s none of the players we expected. Not Sammy Watkins. Not Marqise Lee. There’s no running back worthy of the status. Again it’s back to LSU. So far Odell Beckham Jr. is the top playmaker eligible for the 2014 draft.

The only thing Beckham lacks is height. He’s listed at 6-0. Aside from that he’s the complete receiver prospect. He wins jump balls against taller cornerbacks. He has huge hands that absorb the football — and he’s a pure hands catcher. He’s explosive. He runs good routes. In six games this year he has 686 yards and seven total touchdowns.

Really, what’s not to like?

He’ll have an immediate impact as a kick return threat and it won’t be a total shocker if he hits the ground running as a receiver. This year he’s looked like a NFL receiver on loan to college football. He just looks ready. And working within a productive passing game at LSU he’s thriving.

Like A.J. Green, DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones, Beckham oozes a natural instinct for the position. You just feel like he’s going to learn the playbook quickly and be out there making plays. Don’t be put off by his size — everything else is good enough to warrant major attention.

In a draft without any clear cut playmakers, Beckham offers the best value and could be a first round pick.

Need more convincing?

Top overall player – Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina)

Don’t be fooled into thinking the current drama involving Clowney will have a big impact on his stock. Even if he sits the rest of the season, eventually he’s going to turn up at the combine and put on a display for the ages.

Physically he is every bit as good as the hype suggests.

So while there’s a lot of hand wringing going on at the moment about his decision to sit out Saturday’s game against Kentucky due to a rib injury, the fact is he’s going to be nigh on impossible to pass on. We’re talking about one of the most talented players to enter the NFL in recent memory. In terms of sheer physical brilliance, he’s up there with Calvin Johnson. A real freak of nature.

And like Johnson, he might not go first overall if the team that owns the top pick feels they simply have to draft a quarterback. The first team that doesn’t desperately need a QB will draft Clowney. Simple as that. He is too good. There is too much potential.

He is going to be the player with the most upside in the 2014 draft and it isn’t even close.

Let’s assume Jacksonville ‘earns’ the #1 pick. They are several drafts away from relevance. And while they clearly need a quarterback, drafting one with the #1 pick won’t automatically turn them into a contender. There’s no Andrew Luck in this class.

So do you take a longer term approach and draft a player who could be an elite difference maker on defense? I say yes. They need to accumulate talent right now, not chase needs. The Jaguars would be better served drafting Clowney at #1 to help establish an identity behind their defensive minded Head Coach.

With the right coaches in the NFL, he’ll be a superstar. Gus Bradley would be a great coach for Jadeveon Clowney. And Bradley needs good football players across the board, not just at quarterback.

Position with the most depth – Offensive tackle

Again, it’s still early. But this looks like another year where we see a cluster of offensive linemen going in the top 10-15. There aren’t any guards as good as Jonathan Cooper or Chance Warmack, but there are several decent tackles.

The position overall is getting over drafted, so the league will be all over this crop.

All of the following could be early picks: Jake Matthews, Cyrus Kouandjio, Taylor Lewan, Zack Martin, Antonio Richardson and James Hurst.

Out of that group, I wouldn’t rate any higher than 2010’s top tackle (Trent Williams), 2011’s (Tyron Smith) or 2012’s (Matt Kalil) going into their respective draft classes. They’re all good players. Are they great? Debatable. But the league likes the idea of drafting a tackle early.

Multiple teams could be targeting the position in 2014 which also helps, such as the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on Florida State’s converted defensive lineman Cameron Erving. I need to get a better look at him, but he’s looked fairly accomplished so far after making the switch. The best athletes are playing defense in college these days — and it’s a serious problem for NFL teams trying to find blockers who can match up.

Seattle was ahead of the curve in looking for defensive players who can play on offense. Now some college teams appear willing to try their fringe defenders on the O-line. Both the NCAA and the NFL have to find a way to deal with the speed and athleticism that’s gravitating towards defense. The mismatch is too extreme.

I was very close to naming quarterback as the position with most depth. It’s right up there.

Players who have underwhelmed so far

Louis Nix (DT, Notre Dame)
It’s assumed Nix is a top ten lock, but when I’ve watched him this year he’s looked sluggish and heavy. He has a reputation for a dominating, athletic nose tackle. Has he made any big plays yet? It’s time to raise some concern. He isn’t anything like the same kind of athlete as Dontari Poe (#11 overall, 2012). Teams are always looking for a good nose tackle, but right now he just looks average. A big body.

Marqise Lee (WR, USC)
As USC drifted into farce, Lee’s stock took a hammering. Instead of the unstoppable force we’ve come to expect, he’s made basic mental errors (bad drops, turnovers) and failed to make much of an impact. A lot of it is down to Lane Kiffin and the ridiculous decision to keep him on for 2013. But Lee doesn’t have outstanding physical tools and recently picked up a knee injury. On current form is anyone going to see him as a top-15 pick? Robert Woods’ stock dropped into round two last year and it’s not too unrealistic that the same could happen to Lee.

Will Sutton (DT, Arizona State)
I don’t really get what all the fuss is about. He looks like a classic JAG. Last year he made headlines for his production. Yet on tape he only played in flashes. There’s nothing particularly impressive about his physical make-up. Frequently he’s blown up in run plays or shoved backwards in pass protection. He hasn’t got the greatest motor and where’s the nasty streak? This season he hasn’t even got the production — with just one sack in five games. I wouldn’t even offer a mid-round grade at this stage.

David Yankey (G, Stanford)
Stanford offensive linemen are well coached and technically excellent. The scheme they use is a thing of beauty. It’s primed for players to excel, with lots of movement and pulling. If you execute, you’ll look good. But as we’ve seen with previous Cardinal linemen, it doesn’t always translate to the next level. You need a certain level of physical quality too, not just technical expertise. Jonathan Martin looked like a first round pick at times in college, but has struggled mightily in Miami. David De Castro was flavour of the month in 2012 but dropped into the 20’s for a reason and hasn’t looked all that great in Pittsburgh. Yankey looks like the next technically gifted Stanford lineman who just isn’t all that special.

This is the least excited I’ve been about a draft class in a long time. There’s still time for that to change, but so far it’s mostly been about disappointing performances, injuries, suspensions and character issues. This is pretty much the ‘bad news draft class’.

Let’s hope it gets better.

53 Responses to “General (early) thoughts on the 2014 draft”

Of the 28 players you like, not a single CB? There’s almost always three CB’s drafted in the first round and usually there’s four. I agree with you that there aren’t any “Seahawk-prototype” CB’s, but there must be some guys that are exciting out there. There are also some very intriguing RB’s (Grice, Hyde, Sankey) that probably won’t be first rounders but I would consider to be high-impact players that fall into the top thirty football players for next year’s draft.

One more question: you don’t mention Kevin Hogan as a returner with Hundley and Mariota. Do you think he’ll be a good pro qb?

I haven’t had a chance to look closely at cornerbacks yet… and to be fair, they appear determined to keep adding in the mid/late rounds there anyway. The one guy I have watched so far — Bradley Roby — has been a big disappointment.

He has 4 INTs so far, and I think he might end up being a 2nd day pick because of his size (6-3 215+ lbs). People are going to think of him as a Richard Sherman clone. I think his size alone will push him up draft boards.

I don’t see us targeting a day 1 or 2 cb. Remember Seattle grades against current roster value. I don’t see equivalent value anywhere in the top 10 guys.

One we might consider if he slips some is Kyle Fuller from VT. He’s a bit of the Winfield model. Athletic and a very physical tackler. It’s a unique skillset that we’ve tried to add and failed. So there is precedent for us opting for that in the draft.

Rob it has been a long time since I have last commented but I was wondering if Seattle would take a hard look at Wash. Huskies TE Jenkins as a replacement in next years draft, his stock will drop because he isnt built for the fast pace offense now installed. Also Rob are your thoughts on letting go of Rice, Miller and possibly Tate, and whom do you think are adequate replacements from this years draft class. Please dont include Williamson and Kearse, who I already see as being “good” enough for those key players.

I’m not convinced Seattle will look too closely at Austin Seferian-Jenkins. The one thing they’ve looked for consistently with early picks is difference making physical qualities. ASJ looks heavy this year. He’s a traditional tight end who probably runs a 4.8 at best, while I’m guessing Seattle (like most of the league) is looking for the next Jimmy Graham. The one saving grace for any TE with his skill set is run blocking, but I’m not sure it’s good enough for Seattle to see him as a future replacement for Zach Miller.

I certainly can see Rice going unless his production/performance improves. Miller’s contract drops significantly in terms of cap hit next year so I think he sticks. Tate will be difficult to keep due to the way receivers are still getting paid in free agency. I’m a big fan of Odell Beckham as a potential replacement for the loss of Rice/Tate.

Great find in Beckham there. He’s perfect for this offense in that he’s a hand catcher. Imho, those guys rarely fumble and would be perfect for Russell Wilson to throw the ball too in tight coverage. That’s why I think Golden is so important to this team, his grip and wiggle. Looks like Odell has some of that wiggle.

I also noticed that your writing has really progressed since you first started this blog. Not sure how to describe it but it seems much more professional with great analogies, references to past or previous players and every now and then a great “turn of the phrase.” You don’t fall in to that trap either that so many writers do when writing extensively about a player, they always repeat the same name over and over. You’re also more “even keel” in your assessments. It’s obvious you’ve devoted a lot of time and thought to your craft. I can be a bit of a grammar nazi because I always did well in “English,” so I really appreciate good writing. I think Peter King is one of the best but he’s a natural at it.

I appreciate your blog and honestly believe it’s only a matter of time before someone picks you up. I’m sure they are just biding their time and looking at a body of work over time.

I was just watching the Cameron Erving vs Pitt game last night. He seems like the type Seattle, and especially Schneider goes for. Multiple position athlete and a lot of his common problems (blocking at the second level, finishing plays) seems fairly fixable.
Beckham Jr. Is a beast though. At first I thought we’d try to resign Tate after this year but I think we may try to resign Bennett instead. If we can cut Rice and keep both somehow then go for it!

I actually have put my Capologist hat on and worked through the numbers based on the going rate for these players and kinds of contracts we sign players to. I believe we are going to unload both Rice and Avril next year which will allow us to extend both Thomas and Sherman while also signing Bennett and Tate to decent longer-term contracts. After investing four years in Tate and the player he has developed into I have a hard time seeing us walk away. I think much will depend on the kind of chemistry that exists between these guys when we add Harvin to the mix. Will we still miss the big receiver target to warrant prioritizing that type of receiver over someone like Beckham?

Or will we look for a legitimate TE/WR hybrid player to run out of 2 or 3 TE sets down in the red zone as our possession guy outside of the first round?

On defense I am very included to see how well Irvin looked against the run last week. I’m starting to believe that he can actually become our future Leo end to replace Clemens down the road. Which means we may de-prioritize that position a bit even w/ the loss of Avril next year that I’m expecting.

Any team thinking of trading for Avril will need to be prepared to offer a reasonable/substantial contract extension immediately. Avril was a free agent just months ago and didn’t receive an offer like that. In order to attract any interest for a trade he’s going to need to be sensational — and if he manages that, why would you deal him?

From a quick initial glance, there seems to be a dropoff at around 7 or 8. To me, this is one of those top heavy drafts similiar to 2011 where after Aldon Smith at 7 and then JJ Watt at 11, the quality really tanked. At the same time, I don’t feel the top of this draft will be as strong.

This contrasts with say the 2009 and 2013 class where the top 5 isn’t that different from the bottom of the 1st. It’s certainly different from the 2012 or 2010 class that had top talent at the top and solid depth well into the 3rd round.

hey rob love the insight and thanks for hat tip on beckham, dude looks legit. couple other guys i like not specifically for SEA are brandin cooks from OSU, he is super quick. check his utah game a little screen takes it across the field for a td. Also Allen Robinson, he’s 6’2 and has looks pretty fast, runs some sloppy routes but gets open and hows he can hight point a ball. Also devante parker from Lousiville he is intriguing with his size at 6’3 and last in jared Abberderis he always seems to make clutch plays in big games and is also big at 6’2 plus him and russell have that badger connection

Not draft or Seahawks related, but it is football related, and this is basically the best website on earth for talking football, so… What the hell is wrong with these freakin’ owners/Roger Goodell? In a 5 minute span of watching NFL network, I learned that they are going to add yet another London game, want to expand (water down) the playoffs, and they are going to start forcing teams to appear on hard knocks.

I find all three of these things outrageous, and really really wish they would stop changing the game every single year. It’s bad enough that they annually add more of the one thing fans hate: things to penalize. The idea that it’s all done in the name of “player safety” is a total joke, and continually telling the fans and players that shows how stupid they think we all are. The playoff expansion idea is a terrible one. Just look at the NBA! At this pace the NFL will be completely unrecognizable a decade from now. I hate the NFL. Well actually I love the NFL, which is what makes all this so infuriating. This is all my fault really…

Also Rob, I’m not sure exactly where you stand on the NFL’s infiltration of your country, so please know that I have no ill will towards NFL fans over there, just tired of all the change all the time.

I don’t see why we need three games in London next year. I think one per season is enough. The sport continues to grow over here but it’s growing without the need for multiple games. Are they really making that much money out of having three games instead of one? Presumably so, because that’s the only justification.

The NFL will soon start to see people picking and choosing their events. I’m guessing the San Fran vs Jacksonville game will have a poorer attendance later this month because a lot of the fans will have bought tickets months ago believing Pittsburgh vs Minnesota to be a better game. With three games to choose from, if one is substantially better than the others (and there’s every chance with Atlanta, Jacksonville and Oakland coming over in 2014) the fans will gravitate to the superior fixture.

I think change is a natural occurrence. Bad changes will be changed.
I think you DO hate the NFL, but you love football.

An idea I’ve been toying with is that of removing defensive holding penalties. I think it would really slow down these high flying passing offenses. Of course this would never happen, because the NFL wants high scoring games. Keeps fans interested.
Personally I would rather watch two running teams slug it the fuck out.

At first glance, this looks like a really bad year for DTs, and 4-3DEs.

BTW Rob, during the draft hangout with Kenneth, you mentioned that the one player that Eric Fisher reminded you the most of was Jason Smith, and it looks like Fisher will be traded for a 3rd day pick by this time next year.

Mettenberger has made the biggest jump from last season so far but Manziel and Bridgewater are getting all the pub right now. He could be a good fit for Turner, I would like to see his mobility more but he looks like a classic Tom Brady type of QB.

For Seattle I really want Jordan Mathews because Rice is pricey with Harvin now on the team and we need to keep Miller if we want to run the ball at an elite level. Adding a good #1 with length would be great for Wilson and we already have athletic guys like Tate, Kearse, and Baldwin. Hope Evan declares too since Manziel probably does I’m thinking he will also, could be the first guy taken at WR, that will allow a lot of teams to go OT and hopefully leave a long WR available for Seattle.

Hi Rob. For whatever reason the videos u attach do not even show up (just blank space) and thus I can’t access then when I read your blog. Any thoughts on how it can be fixed? Would love to be able to truly follow along on your full analysis. Thanks on advance

This makes no sense at all. You just said “Wagner’s a great LB”. Ok then. Why change it? Is the difference really going to be that much better? I don’t see it. You’ve played great defense with them in their respective positions, I don’t see how swapping them makes us better. Sounds like a recipe to just add more mental confusion than it’s worth.

Or diversity and multiplicity. Wagner would be a great LB wherever he played. I’m trying to cover up KJ’s lesser athleticism. He’s got fantastic length, but he’s frankly pretty slow. I’d prefer to see him inside. Will LB is supposed to be a hyper-athletic player.

-Kevin Hogan was completely underwhelming. I’ve seen him twice this year and while he was better against SJSU I don’t think he’s ready to come out, he needs another year.

-Keith Price on the other hand, looked great. Even without great size I think this guy should be getting more press. I saw shades of Russell Wilson (obviously Price is a bit bigger and not quite as athletic), escaping the Stanford rush again and again and making plays downfield once he did so. He made a few mistakes but overall I was really impressed. Definitely moreso than David Fales, who I also saw.

-Sign me up for Bishop Sankey in the 3rd-4th round. Very athletic with some great balance.

-Austin Seferian-Jenkins looked huge but not exceedingly athletic, I have to agree with you there Rob. I expected more and that last drop was disappointing (although I thought he was open a few times when Price didn’t look his way).

-Didn’t see a ton from Kasen Williams. He had some catches but nothing too impressive athleticly.

-Couldn’t see who was getting most of the pressure but I imagine Ben Gardner and Trent Murphy had good games. Shayne Skov was all over the field. I’m interested to see how he tests out at the combine; he’s a great football player at the college level.

– Ty Montgomery had the long kick return and receiving touchdowns. He’s got good size and could be a later round deep threat; he’s got catches of 30 yards or more in 4 of Stanford’s 5 games this season. Good long speed.

On a different note, I have to disagree with the sentiment I’m seeing lately about Marquise Lee not having great tools. Sure he’s not big but the guy is pretty fast and has elite quickness and agility. He burns college corners and he’s tough to tackle to boot. I definitely think he’s a better athlete than Robert Woods.

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