Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 27, 2013):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Beauty And The Beast

0.37

The Carrie Diaries (F)

0.37

Hart Of Dixie

0.49

Reign

0.86

The Tomorrow People

0.99

Arrow

1.19

The Originals

1.20

Supernatural

1.36

Vampire Diaries

1.48

Nikita

final season

-The Carrie Diaries was one of the cancellation bear's notable misses last season (the other being Hannibal). It had woeful ratings, and yet was renewed. The best the bear can guess its that the CW didn't want to (or couldn't) premiere more than 3 new shows in the Fall and therefore had to hold over one more show from last season.

Regardless of the reason, the show's woeful premiere ratings this season mark it as likely to be canceled by the end of this season. Could the bear be wrong again? Stay tuned.

The bear's keeping Reign at a "toss up", even after its week two ratings decline. He's got plenty of time to move it down later. It's not going anywhere anytime soon.

With three seasons complete, the CW syndication gods will demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. Maybe it'll be a short one like Nikita's, or maybe not. The bear doesn't get into predicting episode orders. Crazy fans, and anti-fans, who'd like to predict in the comments are welcome to.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2014

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014

- certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Love the Nikita episode titles. For those who don’t know, Division agents “cancel” other agents by killing them or burning them off. Best series finale title ever.

Rocco

TBTB should be certain to be cancelled

Percysowner

Jared and Jensen reiterated (announced?) that they are signed though season 10 and that if the quality keeps up they are willing to do more. I suspect the CW will do a lot to try and keep them and the show going. I mean, it’s not only stable, it’s stable at a high rating, for the CW. If the CW doesn’t fold, they could keep Supernatural going until the Js are ready to retire. Just kidding, but still.

Brandy

Sad CD & BaTB are sure to be cancelled.I wish they , plus VD The Originals and Reign,HoD would stick around

Ronald

OH GOD TCD is a good show its a shame it couldnt find it`s audience, i hope Reign rise this week to keep at least one full season

Dave

My top 4 are safe and NIKITA is ending so all good here

Just wish REIGN could gain some traction. If you don’t take it too serious, it’s actually a great guilty pleasure. Fills the void of 90210 for me.

Lmao at BATB, Dixie and Carrie

Charmed

@Brandy this site only make predictions based on ratings, there are way more factors at play, how do you think TCD got renewed last year?

Charmed

You don’t watch Reign for a history lesson!

ludotv

It was obvious TCD & Beauty&”Beast” were going to struggle and as it’s been noted, only the inability to premiere brand new shows could justify their renewal last year. The good news for Hart of Dixie fans is that their failure and the fact that HoD is already on its 3rd season virtually guarantees us a 4th Season… GO BLUEBELL!!!!

allfromthei

One thing we can take away from a 3 year sample is that it doesnt matter where you move the shows around, CW seems to be getting the same number of viewers each day of the week regardless of what programme they air

Mondays are always low, Fridays low, Thursday after TVD is slumping

And what’s weird is when I suggest that the CW might as well air one of their stronger shows on a more competitive weeknight like a Monday, the same people who laugh at these numbers are like “Noooo”. Surely something like Arrow has enough of a broader base compared to the other CW shows to air?

JJA

@Dave–were you a fan of Hellcats? Or Secret Circle?

Having trouble here trying to rationalize why a non-fan would care that a show they obviously don’t watch is ending.

Kay

Hopefully fans of Reign can pull together and watch it live on Thursday even though its Halloween and the final game of the World Series.

Dave

@JJA

Nope, hated both HC and TSC.

If you’re referring to Nikita, I think you misunderstood me. I’m a fan of the show. Really sad to see it end so abruptly but satisfied it will have a conclusion.

allfromthei

Reign will get second season the way BATB did. The lead in is helping

The question is where do you go next year? Because you can put them on Monday or Friday to struggle but the CW gotta ask themselves do you do that struggle?

I still dont see why they dont spread their strong lineups out a little from a day to day basis

As for BATB and TCD, some people say the intl sales and cost helps, others say the numbers are too low to justify but I remember Nikita and HOD doing not too hot in their second (or even first seasons) and now we’re here talking 4th season renewal. Granted neither of them dipped to 0.3 in Season 2 (I think) but Im curious to see if CW will give BATB and TCD one last chance considering the days of the week they are on have more to do with how they are preforming

Still dont see why they cant do what they did a few years and spread their programmes from their better nights (Tues and Weds) to help out the days.

I guess they’ll just produce a lot of comic book and sci-fi themed teen stuff….which still makes me wonder why oh why this network was not on cable or even an On Demand format.

Bitter Go On Fan (Former Bitter Ringer Fan)

I think we should see TCD as a limited series since it only gets 13 episode orders LMAO and no, it won’t get a full season order.

Reign won’t be a TCD 2.0 because the situation is different. Reign will be canceled and that’s it.

Jon

@Dave
I would not say it will end abruptly when the creator said he only planned for the show to last 3-4 seasons. I might say it will end perfectly without getting stale like so many other long running shows. Nikita will end on a creative high as a complete show. 73 episodes for a network show is not bad at all imo

Timmy G

@allfromthei, ummm Pedowitz is doing that. The first year he was at the network, the two most successful nights were Thursday and Friday because of TVD and Supernatural.

Supernatural was moved back to Wednesday because of its strong performance on Friday, and thus last year he fixed Wednesday nights with the Arrow/Supernatural combo. Now this year, he took the 3 strongest shows and put them on 3 different nights (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). No doubt he’ll use that strategy again next year to fix Mondays (most likely moving The Originals IMO). Friday’s will continue to be ignored until Monday-Thursday is totally fixed so the next issue is dealing with the post TVD slot. As many have said, it might be best to move TVD to 9 PM and have a new show self start at 8.

Dave

You know what I’ve noticed that has occurred over the years on The CW?

Supernatural is the only show that has cross-launched TVD, Arrow and now The Originals. Those shows are the top rated shows on The CW along with SPN as well.

The only show SPN unfortunately failed to have an impact on was NIKITA.

TVD only launched NIKITA that had a descent run.

ARROW looks to be the new TVD when it CW’s to launching a new show as well.

Marius Telemacher

Except for Who’s Line is It Anyway, I never watch The CW (despite their placement of the show as a 30-mintue advertisement for CW programs to Gen X and Baby Boomer types… sorry, it didn’t work on me).

Not trying to troll or flame those who do watch. Everybody got their somethin’ somethin’. This just ain’t it for me.