Biggest NFL Playoff Odds Movers: Week 14

The Steelers are simultaneously a team that would miss the playoffs if the season ended today and one that no one will want to see in January.

The Pittsburgh Steelers won’t have a bye week and probably will not play a home game in January, and if the season ended today, they wouldn’t even make the playoffs.

All that said, Pittsburgh still has some of the highest Super Bowl odds in the NFL.

While their title probability is only 4.8%, according to our algorithms, that is still higher than 26 teams in the league.

The number rose last week after Pittsburgh’s win over the Bengals, which improved their record to 8-5 and kept them in a three-way tie for a wild card spot with Kansas City and the Jets, who both also won on Sunday. The Steelers lose the tiebreaker to both teams due to an inferior conference record but are tied for the fourth-highest spot in power ratings, so we give them an edge to beat out the Jets for a playoff spot.

By beating a team in the top-six in our ratings, the Steelers saw the biggest increase in postseason odds in Week 14, and we now give them a 63.7% chance to make the playoffs.

The biggest movers in either direction this week were the Buccaneers, whose playoff odds plummeted to 5.6% from 29.0%.

Winners

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)

By our ratings, Pittsburgh is one of the best teams in the league, and by our metrics, we would expect them to beat an average opponent by over nine points on a neutral field.

This number would likely be even higher, if not for the games played by Landry Jones and Michael Vick. Ben Roethlisberger is fifth in the league in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP), third in Passing NEP per drop back, and first in Success Rate -- the percentage of drop backs leading to positive NEP gains -- among qualifying quarterbacks.

The Steelers have a tough game at home in Week 15 against the Broncos, who are ninth in our ratings, but close out the season at Baltimore (29th) and Cleveland (26th).

Seattle Seahawks (8-5)

Seattle’s big win over the Ravens and losses by the Buccaneers and Falcons all but assure a playoff berth for the Seahawks.

The Seahawks now have a two-game lead over both Tampa Bay and Atlanta with three games remaining, and like Pittsburgh, they are not a team the rest of the conference would like to meet in the playoffs.

Pete Carroll’s squad is third in our nERD ratings (9.68), ranking third in opponent-adjusted Defensive NEP and sixth in opponent-adjusted NEP on offense.

Indianapolis Colts (6-7)

Unlike the other four teams in the “Losers” section this week, the Colts still have a realistic chance to make the playoffs and would be the AFC South champions if the season ended today.

Their odds would have dropped more if not for a Houston loss to New England, but Indianapolis’ loss to Jacksonville was much more costly. While our probabilities did not give Houston much of a chance to beat the Patriots, the Colts’ game in Jacksonville was close to a toss up, so their loss affected their playoff chances more.

Indianapolis’ shellacking at the hands of a bad team also dropped their nERD rating from -2.86 to -4.83, while Houston’s only fell from -0.09 to to -1.12.

Both Indianapolis and Houston are tied atop the AFC South at 6-7, while the Colts own the tiebreaker thanks to a head-to-head win and will host Houston next week.

By our playoff probability numbers, though, Houston is actually now a slight favorite to win the division. The Texans have a 49.2% chance to win the division, compared to 48.6% for the Colts and 2.2% for Jacksonville (yes, the Jaguars are still mathematically alive).

nERD sees the Texans as a team that is roughly a field goal better than Indianapolis, explaining their edge here.

Atlanta Falcons (6-7)

The Falcons' wild card odds were slim before they got mauled by the Panthers. A loss that dropped them to 20th in the league in nERD, coupled with wins by their fellow wild card contenders just made them slimmer.