The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019

Since we already have a Sino-Indian War of 2020 thread going in this forum, I thought it might be good to posit what would happen in a full-scale Indo-Pakistani conflict. Wrote this in the form of a faux wiki article. Enjoy.

[hr][/hr]The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019 - Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia

The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019, also known as the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War, was the culmination of a series of wars and skirmishes between the two nations since their mutual independence in 1947. Marked by the only use of nuclear weapons in warfare outside of World War II, an outbreak of the Green Death and widespread crop failure, as well as 'an unprecedented level of religious violence', it resulted in 90 to 120 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians. These deaths make the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War by far the deadliest conflict in human history.

It began in January 2019, after the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba launched a chemical attack on Mumbai, which triggered an Indian 'punitive assault' on Pakistan. Pakistani field commanders responded with tactical nuclear weapons, which India and Pakistan escalated to mutual strategic nuclear strikes. Within hours of the initial nuclear exchange, national leaders in both countries were dead, and central political authority collapsed. The conflict then dissolved into chaotic, large-scale hostilities between sectarian groups that caused the permanent members of the UN Security Council to approve intervention by the newly-created Emergency Commission for South Asian Peace and Stability in March 2019.

The Emergency Commission suffered casualties at the hands of the then-emerging Jai Hind movement in the Kolkata Riots and Hyderabad Riots of April-May 2019, which caused the UN Security Council to pull peacekeepers from and limit food aid to most of South Asia until the situation had stabilized. Between May 2019 and September 2019, there were over 100,000 'mass incidents' of religious violence, largely triggered by armed clashes over dwindling food stocks. In response to the perceived anti-Muslim nature of the unrest, prominent Saudi and Egyptian clerics issued fatwas announcing jihad across the Indian subcontinent, and against the Jai Hind movement in particular. The Jai Hind movement responded with explicit declarations targeting 'terrorists', which international observers noted were aimed at those of Muslim belief. These factors contributed to ongoing religious unrest across India, which analysts estimate caused an additional 3-5 million casualties.

In November 2019, the Emergency Commission and the Jai Hind movement negotiated terms for security and food deliveries across the subcontinent, which marked de facto recognition of the movement as the political successor to the Government of India. Most of Pakistan and parts of Northwestern India remain under the control of the Emergency Commission.

In addition to the massive loss of life, the war also resulted in regional economic devastation; the GDP of India fell by nearly 45% from its 2019 peak; the GDP of Pakistan fell by 80%. The war is widely viewed as the catalyst for the Copenhagen Arms Reduction Treaty between Russia and NATO, and the Northeast Asia Security Summit between the United States, China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea.

The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019
[image missing]Clockwise from top left: Lashkar-e-Taiba militants detonating nerve gas canisters in DY Patil Stadium, Indian PM Narendra Modi announcing Operation Dharma, Indian Su-30MKI fighter aircraft bombing Rawalpindi, The Pakistani frigate Zulfiquar sinking in the Arabian Sea, Indian and Pakistani mechanized infantry fighting in the outskirts of Lahore, LandSat time-lapse of all 297 nuclear detonations across South Asia, a young child scavenging for food in the ruins of Delhi

Date
12 January 2019 â€“ 26 March 2019 (2 months, 14 days)

Location
South Asia

Result
Stalemate (disputed: Indian remnants claim they achieved victory)

Collapse and dissolution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan
Collapse of the Government of India
Creation of the Emergency Commission for South Asian Peace and Stability
Emergence of the Jai Hind paramilitary group
Emergence of the All-India Muslim Self-Defense League (also known as Al-Qaeda in South Asia)
UN occupation of Pakistan and Northwestern India

Since we already have a Sino-Indian War of 2020 thread going in this forum, I thought it might be good to posit what would happen in a full-scale Indo-Pakistani conflict. Wrote this in the form of a faux wiki article. Enjoy.

Since we already have a Sino-Indian War of 2020 thread going in this forum, I thought it might be good to posit what would happen in a full-scale Indo-Pakistani conflict. Wrote this in the form of a faux wiki article. Enjoy.

[hr][/hr]The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019 - Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia

The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019, also known as the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War, was the culmination of a series of wars and skirmishes between the two nations since their mutual independence in 1947. Marked by the only use of nuclear weapons in warfare outside of World War II, an outbreak of the Green Death and widespread crop failure, as well as 'an unprecedented level of religious violence', it resulted in 90 to 120 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians. These deaths make the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War by far the deadliest conflict in human history.

It began in January 2019, after the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba launched a chemical attack on Mumbai, which triggered an Indian 'punitive assault' on Pakistan. Pakistani field commanders responded with tactical nuclear weapons, which India and Pakistan escalated to mutual strategic nuclear strikes. Within hours of the initial nuclear exchange, national leaders in both countries were dead, and central political authority collapsed. The conflict then dissolved into chaotic, large-scale hostilities between sectarian groups that caused the permanent members of the UN Security Council to approve intervention by the newly-created Emergency Commission for South Asian Peace and Stability in March 2019.

The Emergency Commission suffered casualties at the hands of the then-emerging Jai Hind movement in the Kolkata Riots and Hyderabad Riots of April-May 2019, which caused the UN Security Council to pull peacekeepers from and limit food aid to most of South Asia until the situation had stabilized. Between May 2019 and September 2019, there were over 100,000 'mass incidents' of religious violence, largely triggered by armed clashes over dwindling food stocks. In response to the perceived anti-Muslim nature of the unrest, prominent Saudi and Egyptian clerics issued fatwas announcing jihad across the Indian subcontinent, and against the Jai Hind movement in particular. The Jai Hind movement responded with explicit declarations targeting 'terrorists', which international observers noted were aimed at those of Muslim belief. These factors contributed to ongoing religious unrest across India, which analysts estimate caused an additional 3-5 million casualties.

In November 2019, the Emergency Commission and the Jai Hind movement negotiated terms for security and food deliveries across the subcontinent, which marked de facto recognition of the movement as the political successor to the Government of India. Most of Pakistan and parts of Northwestern India remain under the control of the Emergency Commission.

In addition to the massive loss of life, the war also resulted in regional economic devastation; the GDP of India fell by nearly 45% from its 2019 peak; the GDP of Pakistan fell by 80%. The war is widely viewed as the catalyst for the Copenhagen Arms Reduction Treaty between Russia and NATO, and the Northeast Asia Security Summit between the United States, China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea.

The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019
[image missing]Clockwise from top left: Lashkar-e-Taiba militants detonating nerve gas canisters in DY Patil Stadium, Indian PM Narendra Modi announcing Operation Dharma, Indian Su-30MKI fighter aircraft bombing Rawalpindi, The Pakistani frigate Zulfiquar sinking in the Arabian Sea, Indian and Pakistani mechanized infantry fighting in the outskirts of Lahore, LandSat time-lapse of all 297 nuclear detonations across South Asia, a young child scavenging for food in the ruins of Delhi

Date
12 January 2019 â€“ 26 March 2019 (2 months, 14 days)

Location
South Asia

Result
Stalemate (disputed: Indian remnants claim they achieved victory)

Collapse and dissolution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan
Collapse of the Government of India
Creation of the Emergency Commission for South Asian Peace and Stability
Emergence of the Jai Hind paramilitary group
Emergence of the All-India Muslim Self-Defense League (also known as Al-Qaeda in South Asia)
UN occupation of Pakistan and Northwestern India

I'm not sure how this is a wet dream for me. Of course, given what some other nationalists on this forum have been advocating (namely, that eliminating Pakistan is worth nuclear war), it certainly might seem to be a wet dream for them.

It began in January 2019, after the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba launched a chemical attack on Mumbai, which triggered an Indian 'punitive assault' on Pakistan. Pakistani field commanders responded with tactical nuclear weapons, which India and Pakistan escalated to mutual strategic nuclear strikes

Since we already have a Sino-Indian War of 2020 thread going in this forum, I thought it might be good to posit what would happen in a full-scale Indo-Pakistani conflict. Wrote this in the form of a faux wiki article. Enjoy.

[hr][/hr]The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019 - Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia

The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019, also known as the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War, was the culmination of a series of wars and skirmishes between the two nations since their mutual independence in 1947. Marked by the only use of nuclear weapons in warfare outside of World War II, an outbreak of the Green Death and widespread crop failure, as well as 'an unprecedented level of religious violence', it resulted in 90 to 120 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians. These deaths make the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War by far the deadliest conflict in human history.

It began in January 2019, after the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba launched a chemical attack on Mumbai, which triggered an Indian 'punitive assault' on Pakistan. Pakistani field commanders responded with tactical nuclear weapons, which India and Pakistan escalated to mutual strategic nuclear strikes. Within hours of the initial nuclear exchange, national leaders in both countries were dead, and central political authority collapsed. The conflict then dissolved into chaotic, large-scale hostilities between sectarian groups that caused the permanent members of the UN Security Council to approve intervention by the newly-created Emergency Commission for South Asian Peace and Stability in March 2019.

The Emergency Commission suffered casualties at the hands of the then-emerging Jai Hind movement in the Kolkata Riots and Hyderabad Riots of April-May 2019, which caused the UN Security Council to pull peacekeepers from and limit food aid to most of South Asia until the situation had stabilized. Between May 2019 and September 2019, there were over 100,000 'mass incidents' of religious violence, largely triggered by armed clashes over dwindling food stocks. In response to the perceived anti-Muslim nature of the unrest, prominent Saudi and Egyptian clerics issued fatwas announcing jihad across the Indian subcontinent, and against the Jai Hind movement in particular. The Jai Hind movement responded with explicit declarations targeting 'terrorists', which international observers noted were aimed at those of Muslim belief. These factors contributed to ongoing religious unrest across India, which analysts estimate caused an additional 3-5 million casualties.

In November 2019, the Emergency Commission and the Jai Hind movement negotiated terms for security and food deliveries across the subcontinent, which marked de facto recognition of the movement as the political successor to the Government of India. Most of Pakistan and parts of Northwestern India remain under the control of the Emergency Commission.

In addition to the massive loss of life, the war also resulted in regional economic devastation; the GDP of India fell by nearly 45% from its 2019 peak; the GDP of Pakistan fell by 80%. The war is widely viewed as the catalyst for the Copenhagen Arms Reduction Treaty between Russia and NATO, and the Northeast Asia Security Summit between the United States, China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea.

The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019
[image missing]Clockwise from top left: Lashkar-e-Taiba militants detonating nerve gas canisters in DY Patil Stadium, Indian PM Narendra Modi announcing Operation Dharma, Indian Su-30MKI fighter aircraft bombing Rawalpindi, The Pakistani frigate Zulfiquar sinking in the Arabian Sea, Indian and Pakistani mechanized infantry fighting in the outskirts of Lahore, LandSat time-lapse of all 297 nuclear detonations across South Asia, a young child scavenging for food in the ruins of Delhi

Date
12 January 2019 â€“ 26 March 2019 (2 months, 14 days)

Location
South Asia

Result
Stalemate (disputed: Indian remnants claim they achieved victory)

Collapse and dissolution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan
Collapse of the Government of India
Creation of the Emergency Commission for South Asian Peace and Stability
Emergence of the Jai Hind paramilitary group
Emergence of the All-India Muslim Self-Defense League (also known as Al-Qaeda in South Asia)
UN occupation of Pakistan and Northwestern India

In 2019 if NAMO is PM of India, there will be no conventional war with Pak. It will start with Pre-emptive nuke strikes on Pakistan. The decision makers in India are now increasingly coming around to the point that as India grows militarily in conventional terms and the disparity with Pak grows in military terms, the nuke threshold of Pak will continue to come down and given their extremely bad financial and politico social condition, a so called limited conventional war for the purpose of punishing Pak wil inevitably cross the nuke threshold rather quickly. So any war with Pak must be started with nukes ready to take off the moment Pak leadership decides to go nuke. I have very very clear indications that this is the new doctrine of Indian armed forces vis-a-vis Pakistan.
Though the scenerio looks very close to being real, the outcome will be one sided in favour of India.
I had stated this even on the CSD thread that CSD has nuke option inbuilt into it and it has stated on many occassions that in case any nation tries to nuke India, the retaliation will be so massive that it will cease to exist.
Yashwant Sinha of BJP & BJP as a party have already openly started calling for nuke strikes on Pakistan and these demands were never denounced by Congress

In 2019 if NAMO is PM of India, there will be no conventional war with Pak. It will start with Pre-emptive nuke strikes on Pakistan. The decision makers in India are now increasingly coming around to the point that as India grows militarily in conventional terms and the disparity with Pak grows in military terms, the nuke threshold of Pak will continue to come down and given their extremely bad financial and politico social condition, a so called limited conventional war for the purpose of punishing Pak wil inevitably cross the nuke threshold rather quickly. So any war with Pak must be started with nukes ready to take off the moment Pak leadership decides to go nuke. I have very very clear indications that this is the new doctrine of Indian armed forces vis-a-vis Pakistan.
Though the scenerio looks very close to being real, the outcome will be one sided in favour of India.
I had stated this even on the CSD thread that CSD has nuke option inbuilt into it and it has stated on many occassions that in case any nation tries to nuke India, the retaliation will be so massive that it will cease to exist.
Yashwant Sinha of BJP & BJP as a party have already openly started calling for nuke strikes on Pakistan and these demands were never denounced by Congress

Click to expand...

India's nuke doctrine specifically allows pre-emptive nuclear strikes on the opponent if information is received first hand that the other belligerent is preparing for a nuclear escalation. India's no first use applies only to NON nuclear nations, that too only for those not covered under the umbrella of a nuclear power.

That said, the overall decision making body, i.e. The CCS alongwith the SFC have their own contingencies with regards to nuclear strikes, particularly after the induction of tactical devices for limited battlefield use. The CSD is purely a theatre level military plan, designed to undertake conventional war into Pakistan. It will most definitely be adjusted and updated to take into consideration the influx of NASR, but it will not have its own nuclear strike doctrine embedded into it.

The political class is still weary of giving nukes into the hands of generals, or even to provide access to nukes under a doctrine drafted by generals. Case in point iis the nuclear launch sequence.

What is more likely is a seperate classified doctrine drafted for the SFC coming to activation as soon as CSD is initiated, or even before that. A doctrine that enables the political class to maintain effective control right until the button is pressed.

1) India would have robust BMD & land based CIWS for Babur CM for major population centers, Pak will not have anything like that.

2) Only mated missiles would be effective as due to retaliatory strike further mating would not be possible.

3) Even if 25% of pak nukes come through,
a> considering 50kt nukes, each would have a kill/injure zone of 40sqkm
b> with India's 368 population density, each nuke can kill/injure 14720 people
c> If Pak's mated nukes number about 50, 25% getting through would be approx 13 nukes
d> so total killed/injured would be approx 1,91,360 Indians

4) In reality, the number would be less than 100,000 as population centers would be heavily defended and sparsely populated areas would be effected.