Tuesday, September 09, 2008

The Billy Smith Factor

Between Terry Ryan's draft picks and acquisitions in conjunction with Billy Smith's offseason signings, trades and waiver wire pick ups, the Twins have produced nearly 8 games above an average team (The team is playing 78-65, nearly 8 games over .500). The unfortunate part is that while Billy Smith had been playing swap-meet to benefit the club, it has in actuality been his biggest hindrance to securing a playoff position. The collect of players contributed by the former general manager have accounted for nearly 13 wins above what a team full of replacements would provide. Meaning absent Smith's contributions, the team would be closer to 84-59 instead of the 78-65. The players added by Smith attrition approximately 7 of those games, with Carlos Gomez (-2.81), Livan Hernandez (-2.06) and Delmon Young (-1.03) being the main culprits.

What we can tell is this judging from the talent amassed by the Ryan Ragime and the new one: Billy Smith, much like his predecessor, is not savvy at building for short-term success of the organization. Smith's wheeling and dealing was a net loss to the Twins of nearly 7 entire games. This is not unlike Ryan in his past seasons. Last year with Ryan at the helm, the signings of Jeff Cirillo, Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz cost the Twins a little over 2 games in the standings. Factor in the decision to resign Rondell White - which resulted in another loss of -0.64 wpa - Ryan's offseason orchestration cost the team a little over 3 games. These 3 games were not vital to the cause as several other key players (Morneau, Mauer, Hunter, Punto) and the entire pitching staff grossly underperformed from their 2006 version and the 2007 team would have been just 82-80 rather than the actual 79-83. The point is still valid that Bill Smith, like his successor whom he learned under, may have the same skills as Ryan did when building for the short-term.

Admittedly, most of Smith's moves where directed for the long-term. It is obvious that Smith, much like Ryan, is thinking about the stability and sustainability of the organization. First, his offseason trades of Johan Santana to the Mets and Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan were not projected to be trades to have an immediate impact in the win column. Delmon Young is under the team's control for several more years while Carlos Gomez barely has a year of MLB service and the pitching trio of Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra are still another year away each from contributing to the big club. Aside from Young and Branden Harris, none of those obtained were really expected to have an immediate impact. Furthermore, the trade deadline passed without the Twins taking a mortgage out on the future. There were plenty of offers made, but the Twins held fast and choose not to part with any more pitching prospects. Clearly a sign that Smith is maintaining the same course as the previous ship's captain.

Plainly, Smith's short-term signings have been disastrous. Craig Monroe (-0.10), Adam Everett (-0.36), Mike Lamb (-0.37), and Livan Hernandez (-2.06) all were largely detrimental to the team's record, deflecting nearly 3 wins away from the team. Even as the team found themselves charging towards a pennant race with a maimed bullpen, Smith's trade of minor league pitcher Mike Hamburger to Texas for Eddie Guardado has yet to produce any fruits (-0.16) while other move that he should have made at the waiver deadline (Chad Bradford) has contributed 0.43 wpa to the American League East leading Tampa Bay Rays. What's more is that only the brief play of Howie Clark (+0.27) and the waiver wire acquisition of Craig Breslow (+0.28) has added to the win column that could be accounted to Smith's general managing.

Terry Ryan - Offense

Acquired

WPA

J. Mauer

Drafted

+3.93

J. Morneau

Drafted

+3.80

J. Kubel

Drafted

+0.70

D. Span

Drafted

+1.03

M. Cuddyer

Drafted

-0.23

B. Buscher

Trade + Developed

+0.41

N. Punto

Trade

-0.41

A. Casilla

Trade + Developed

-1.19

M. Redmond

Free Agent

-1.57

2008 Total:

+6.52

Terry Ryan - Pitching

Acquired

WPA

B. Bonser

Trade + Developed

-1.45

K. Slowey

Drafted

0.78

N. Blackburn

Drafted

0.81

G. Perkins

Drafted

0.95

F. Liriano

Trade + Developed

0.87

S. Baker

Drafted

2.52

J. Rincon

Developed

-0.75

J. Crain

Drafted

-0.62

P. Neshek

Drafted

0.03

M. Guerrier

Trade + Developed

0.41

D. Reyes

Free Agent

0.13

B. Bass

Free Agent

0.05

J. Nathan

Trade

3.38

2008 Total:

+6.24

Billy Smith - Offense

Acquired

WPA

H. Clark

Free Agent

+0.27

R. Ruiz

Free Agent

-0.06

C. Monroe

Trade (waiver)

-0.10

B. Harris

Trade

-0.25

A. Everett

Free Agent

-0.36

M. Lamb

Free Agent

-0.37

D. Young

Trade

-1.03

C. Gomez

Trade

-2.81

2008 Total:

-4.71

Billy Smith - Pitching

Acquired

WPA

L. Hernandez

Free agent

-2.06

C. Breslow

Waiver

+0.28

E. Guardado

Trade (waiver)

-0.16

2008 Total:

-1.94

2008 Team Total:

78-65

+7.68

Let's play make-believe here for a moment and assume Rays general manager did not want to trade Delmon Young, Brendan Harris or Jason Pridie for Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett or Eduardo Morlan. Try to imagine that there were absolutely no takers on the market for Johan Santana since he, Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia were all impending free agents after the 2008 season and nobody was willing to meet what most believed were ransom demands for the southpaw. Visualize for a moment that the Twins retained Torii Hunter for a humongous fee and then pretend that instead of Kyle Lohse being stood up during the hotstove it was Carlos Silva - whom the Twins kept on in 2008 for the same one-year contract St Louis granted Lohse. If those possibilities were not far fetched enough here's where the truth is stretch quite a bit. This scenario would then project that each player that in reality had left the team would still continue their same level of contribution towards winning, therefore, even though it is a given that Carlos Silva would be backed up by a much better defense that the one he currently plays with in Seattle, he still maintains his -2.96 wpa towards the Twins. Likewise, we would assume that the players that did sign or were traded to the Twins maintained their exact same level of production.

Billy Smith - Traded Away/DFA

New Team

WPA

J. Santana

Mets

+3.26

J. Bartlett

Rays

-1.88

M. Garza

Rays

+1.27

T. Hunter

Angels

+0.58

C. Silva

Mariners

-2.96

2008 Total:

+0.27

- The retention of Carlos Silva would mean that Livan Hernandez was never acquired. Silva, however, would prove to be even more detrimental to the team as the difference between Hernandez's -2.06 and Silva's -2.96 would still have been a net loss of -0.90 to the +7.68 wpa total.

- Keeping Santana would thereby mean the Twins would probably have stashed someone young in AAA Rochester - most likely Nick Blackburn . My natural assumption tends to be Blackburn as he was the least experienced professionally among the remaining members of the rotation. Subtract Blackburn's +0.85 from Santana's +3.26 and the Twins would have grabbed an extra 2.41 wins in addition to the team's +7.68 wpa total.

- Having Matt Garza in the rotation would send Glen Perkins to the bullpen (this maneuver would also eliminate Brian Bass from the roster as well) or possibly Rochester. Garza's contribution of +1.27 would be reduced to +0.32 to the +7.68 total when you factor in Perkins's current +0.95 to the positive side of the ledger. There is some debate about what Perkins would contribute had he been placed in the bullpen minus the Brian Bass, most likely a positive one however, that kind of extrapolation is beyond me. Because this is my fantasy and my simplification, let's assume Bass's +0.05 as the long man.

- To this point in the calculations, the team would have added almost 2 victories by not signing Hernandez and keeping Santana and Garza - a total of +9.51.

- Simply swapping Jason Bartlett for Adam Everett is unfair. Both have been hurt at various points in the seasons but Everett has missed much more playing time. Still, instead of Everett's -0.36, pretend that the team was stuck with Bartlett's atrocious -1.88. This would cost the team -1.52 at the shortstop position.

- Because Santana was not traded and Torii Hunter resigned, Carlos Gomez never existed outside of Flushing, New York for Twins fans. Opposed to Go-Go's blackhole of -2.96 wpa, fans were treated to a positive +0.58 at center field. Rather than being 3 games in the hole, the Twins would have added +3.54 games back into in the win column.

- Assuming that Denard Span impressed the Twins enough during spring training to enter camp as a left fielder in the stead of Delmon Young, the Twins would have gained (+1.03) exactly what they lost (-1.03) from the Rays left fielder, which would give the team a positive net of +2.06.

- The absences of Brendan Harris would have placed a significant strain of Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla. This is a more complicated trade off. Therefore I would believe that his playing time would be absorbed between the two switch-hitters, both whom would have been marginally worse than Harris offensively. Double Harris's -0.25 to -0.50 to Casilla's total. So instead of -1.19, Casilla now contributed -1.69.

- Lastly because the Twins had a new-found faith in internal candidate Brian Buscher, Mike Lamb was never signed. Credit the Twins an additional +0.77.

- Through all of the batters' contributions, the Twins would have scratched out +13.86 over the +7.68 current total - a near seven win difference if someone hogtied Billy Smith throughout the offseason.

About OtB

"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."