NFL Point Differential Betting System

Now let’s take a look at the point differential NFL betting system
which really compliments the YPP system as previously discussed. Right
along with YPP, this system should serve as a base to your overall NFL
betting philosophy.

Before I get started though, I again have to give thanks to Allen Moody at About.com for saving me a ton of time from having to re-write this essay. If you haven’t checked out any of his stuff before, he does a great job with everything sports betting.

The point differential
NFL betting system is a little more detailed and time consuming than the
YPP system. However, once you get the formula’s inputted into an Excel
spreadsheet, it’s just a matter of updating the data.

I’ve used
this exact NFL betting system for a long time (with a few small personal
tweaks over the years). Whether you’re just getting started at betting
the NFL or have been at it for a few years, you may want to give some
consideration in implementing this system.

It’s based on objective
stats that can easily be found anywhere. I personally use it (along
with YPP) as a starting point when handicapping an NFL game. Let’s take
a look.

Background On The Point Differential NFL Betting System

When
it comes to an NFL betting system, the Point Differential System is one
of the most time consuming. However, it’s also one of the most
accurate when trying to gauge the relative offensive and defensive
strength of a particular team.

The system incorporates the
strength of the opposition the team has played, which makes it a bit
more accurate than basing a team’s performance against the league
average or the league median.

If a team is averaging 24 points a
game, that doesn’t really tell us much unless we have something to base
that against. The most common base is the league average or league
median. If the average NFL team scores 21.6 points per game, we can now
rank our team scoring 24 points a game as a better-than-average
offensive team.

The one problem with this, however, is that it
fails to take the defensive strength of the team’s opposition into
consideration. If our team, averaging 24 points per game, has played
against opponents who allow an average of 27 points per game, our
ranking of them as a better-than-average offensive team will be
misleading.

Instead of being a good offensive squad, the team is
actually scoring three points less than they should, based on the
opposition they’ve played. That’s where the point differential NFL
betting system comes into play.

Doing the System Calculations

As
I’ve mentioned before, this is probably the most time-consuming NFL
betting system I use, and you’ll soon see why. Here are the steps
required by the system to calculate the odds on a particular game. We’ll
list the steps and then go back and give some examples:

The
first step of this NFL betting system is to list all of the opponents
the road team has played and the number of average points scored and
allowed per game by each team.

The second step is to add the
opposition’s average points for and points allowed and divide by the
number of games played. This step will give an average number of points
scored and an average number of points allowed by the road team’s
opposition.

The third step is to divide the road team’s points scored by the average points allowed by the road team’s opposition.

The fourth step is to divide the road team’s points allowed by the average points scored by the road team’s opposition.

Let’s
use the Atlanta Falcons at the Detroit Lions as an example. Through six
games, the Falcons have scored 104 points and allowed 148 points, which
translates to 17.33 points for and 24.67 points allowed per game. The
first step of the system calls for us to list all of the Falcons’
opponents and their per-game averages, so we would have something
similar to:

The
second step calls for us to add up all of the totals and divide by the
number of games played, which in this case is six. So, adding up all of
the points scored by the opposition gives us 125.17 points
(22.33+18.5+23+18.83+26+16.33=125.17). Dividing 125.17 by six gives us
20.86, which is the average points scored by the teams the Falcons have
played this season.

The second step also calls for us to do the
same thing for the points allowed by Atlanta’s opposition. Adding the
totals up gives a sum of 110.83 points
(20.5+20.33+17.83+17+18.16+19.17=110.83). Dividing by six gives a total
of 18.47, which is the average number of points Atlanta’s opposition has
allowed during the season.

The third step is to divide Atlanta’s
average points scored (17.33) by the average number of points allowed by
opponents, which is 18.47. Dividing 17.33 by 18.47 gives us a figure of
.94. What this means, essentially, is that Atlanta is performing at
94-percent of an average offense, based on the opposition they have
faced.

The fourth step calls for dividing the number of points the
Falcons have allowed by the number of points the opposition has scored.
In this case, divide 24.67 by 20.86 and you get a total of 1.18. In
this case, Atlanta’s defense is performing 18-percent worse than an
average defense, based on the opposition they have faced.

A total
of 1.00 would be average, while a total under 1.00 would indicate the
team is allowing fewer points than an average team. Therefore, a
defensive total above 1.00 indicates the team allows more than the
average number of points.

We will now do the same process for the
home team, the Detroit Lions, who have scored 22.33 points per game and
allowed 19.50 points per game, for the purpose of our example.

Point Differential NFL Betting System: Steps 5-8

The fifth step of the system calls for us to list all of the Lions’ opponents, so we would have something similar to:

The
sixth step calls for us to add up all of the totals and divide by the
number of games played, which in this case is six. So, adding up all of
the average points scored by the opposition gives us 123 points
(22.67+22.33+20.5+18.83+16.5+22.17=123). Diving 123 by six gives us
20.5, which is the average points scored by the teams the Lions have
played this season.

The sixth step also calls for us to do the
same thing for the points allowed by Detroit’s opposition. Adding the
totals up gives a sum of 109.34 points
(18.67+20.5+22.17+17+13.67+17.33=109.34). Dividing by six gives a total
of 18.22, which is the average number of points Detroit’s opposition has
allowed during the season.

The seventh step is to divide
Detroit’s average points scored (22.33) by the average number of points
allowed by opponents, which is 18.22. Dividing 22.33 by 18.22 gives us a
figure of 1.23. What this means is that Detroit is performing at
123-percent of an average offense, based on the opposition they have
faced.

The eighth step calls for dividing the number of points the
Lions have allowed by the number of points the opposition has scored.
So we will divide 19.5 by 20.5 and you get a total of .95. In this case,
Detroit’s defense is performing 5-percent better than an average
defense, based on the opposition they have faced.

A total of 1.00
would be average, while a total under 1.00 would indicate the team is
allowing fewer points than an average team. Therefore, a defensive total
above 1.00 indicates the team allows more than the average number of
points.

Point Differential NFL Betting System: Steps 9-12

By
now, the majority of the time consuming work is done, but we still have
more work to do. This section will show how the actual game predictions
are calculated for the point differential NFL betting system.

The
ninth step of the system is to add the road team’s offensive percentage
to the home team’s defensive percentage and divide by two.

The
10th step of the system is to add the home team’s offensive percentage
to the road team’s defensive percentage and divide by two.

For
the ninth step, we take Atlanta’s offensive percentage (.94) and add
Detroit’s defensive percentage (.95) and come up with 1.89. Dividing
this figure by two, gives us a new figure of .945. This is Atlanta’s
performance figure.

The 10th step calls for us to take Detroit’s
offensive percentage (1.23) and add Atlanta’s defensive percentage
(1.18) to get a total of 2.41. Dividing this figure by two, gives us a
total of 1.21. This is Detroit’s performance figure.

The
11th step of this NFL betting system calls for us to add the road
team’s points scored to the home team’s points allowed and divide by
two.

To
perform the 11th step, we take Atlanta’s average points scored (17.33)
and add the average number of points Detroit has allowed, which is 19.5
to get a total of 36.83. Dividing by two gives us a total of 18.42. This
is Atlanta’s base offensive number.

The 12th step calls for us to
take Detroit’s points scored (22.33) and add Atlanta’s points allowed
(24.67), giving us a total of 47. Diving by two gives a total of 23.5.
This is Detroit’s base offensive number.

Point Differential NFL Betting System: Steps 13-14

The
13th step is to multiply the road team’s base offensive number by its
performance figure and subtract 1.5 points. The reduction in points is
for playing on the road.

For
the 13th step, we take Atlanta’s base offensive number (18.42) and
multiply by Atlanta’s performance figure (.945) and we get a new total
of 17.41. We then subtract 1.5 from 17.31 to get a total of 15.91. This
is the number of predicted points Atlanta will score.

In the 14th
step, we take Detroit’s base offensive number (23.5) and multiply by
Detroit’s performance figure (1.21) and we get a total of 28.44. Adding
1.5 points will give us a new total of 29.44, which is the predicted
number of points Detroit will score.

Therefore, our prediction in the game is Detroit 29.44, Atlanta 15.91. Our predicted line is Detroit by 13.53 points.

Look
for at least a five-point differential between the point spread and the
predicted line before making a wager. In this case, you would wager on
the Lions if they were favored by 8.5 or fewer points, while the Falcons
would be a play if Detroit was favored by 19 or more points.

I
know, the point differential NFL betting system seems a bit overwhelming
at first, but once you have done it several times, it quickly becomes
pretty simple.

For the first four weeks of the season the system
used the points scored and allowed from the previous season, after which
time the current year’s points are used. For this reason, the NFL
betting system should perform best during the middle to end of the
season.

While the system is a bit time consuming, it’s a good
indication of how teams are performing offensively and defensively
throughout the course of the season.

Conclusion

While
it does seem a bit complicated at first, it’s actually pretty easy once
you get everything set up within a spreadsheet. I really think this is
a quality NFL betting system, and although it may take a little time up
front, I can tell you from experience that it’s well worth the effort.

betbubbles

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