Mance is Rhaegar

Monday, April 28, 2014

"He
has a song," the man replied. "He is the prince that was promised,
and his is the song of ice and fire."

-ACOK,
Daenerys IV

Spoilers abound from all ASOIAF books and novellas (though I didn’t
use anything from the new tPatQ). This theory is far reaching and may break the
books for you so tread carefully. Here is a map of everything.

I have expanded on the much hated and impossible theory that Mance
Rayder is Rhaegar Targaryen in disguise. This theory reinterprets the Battle on
the Trident, the skirmish at the Tower of Joy and the destiny of the Seven
Kingdoms. It brings back to life a handful of other characters believed dead
including Ser Arthur Dayne, Ser Oswell Whent, and Lady Ashara Dayne. Also
exploring the implications of Mance being Rhaegar and the plight of his sister Daenarys
and three apparent sons; Aegon VI, Jon Snow and Aemon Steelsong. Feigning
death, donning disguises and embracing secret identities are prevalent tactics
throughout the series (comprehensive examples listed later) so please suspend
your disbelief for a moment and humor the theory. Since this is a super long
read, here are the best parts:

I have cited text as often as possible, sometimes using quotes for
direct evidence and sometimes for emphasis or to guide interpretation. I’ve
tried to abstain from using crackpot theories as cannon; however, there are several
significant theories out there which have played a major part in influencing my
own and I’d especially like to mention Bran Vras’ Winterfell Hois Clos, Stefan Sasse’s
Southron
Ambitions and maidenandwarrior’s H+A=M+J. Thanks to
those authors and everyone who has speculated on the Knight of the Laughing
Tree story, R+J=L and even the few who have already explored Mance = Rhaegar; I
hope to take the theory further. Thanks most of all to GRRM for creating such a
deep, elegant and interconnected fantasy world.

Here are the parts:

I.The
Song of Ice and Fire: Early Life and the Introduction to Prophecy

II.The
Prince of Dragonstone Bested them All: The Kidnapping

III.Elk, Shadowcat and Prince in Black: The Battle of
the Trident reimagined

IV.Our Knees do Not Bend Easily: The Tower of Joy

V.Shadows Are Friends to Men in Black: Joining the
Night’s Watch

VI.You don’t become King- beyond-the-Wall because
your Father Was: Army Muster

VII.The Halfhand of the King

VIII.Sister and Sons

IX.Conclusions

Of all the great theories in the ASOIAF universe, the best one to
start with is Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon (R + L = J), which, in my opinion,
elegantly ties together the song of ice and fire. Jon Snow’s story is the union
that came of Lyanna Stark, descendent of the ancient blood of the First Men who
found and conquered and bound the powers of the icy north, and Rhaegar
Targaryan, of the ancient blood of the Valyrians who found and conquered and
bound the powers of the fiery east. As the story goes, Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna
in the style of wildling courtship and took her to the Tower of Joy where Ned Stark
later found her before returning to Winterfell with a baby named Jon Snow. Thus
J = L + R = aSoIaF; making these three characters the centerpiece of the entire
story.

In my opinion though, Rhaegar, the warrior bard who has caused so much
drama and upheaval and grief is also the embodiment of fire as a Targaryen
prince and of ice as the King-Beyond-the-Wall and the rest of the story is just
the song he is living. But more on that later.

Here is a telling quote from the first time L + R encountered each
other.

"Under
Harren's roof he ate and drank with the wolves, and many of their sworn swords
besides, barrowdown men and moose and bears and mermen. The dragon prince sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle,
but when her pup brother teased her for crying she poured wine over his head. A
black brother spoke, asking the knights to join the Night's Watch."

-ASOS, pg. 281

So I’m going
to explore Rhaegar’s early life, the aforementioned kidnapping and the
aftermath of the kidnapping. I will then carry it forward with my new
interpretations and answer the following questions; who is Jon
Snow’s mother, who is the prince that was promised, who is Azor Ahai, and
perhaps hint at what Daenerys will do and explore the possibilities for
Rhaegar’s sons. Over the course of this essay I will be demonstrating why I
believe Mance to be Rhaegar in disguise and what that means going forward.

I.The Song of Ice and Fire: Early Life and the
Introduction to Prophecy

Let’s explore Rhaegar’s story. Rhaegar, ever known for his sad and
contemplative songs was once recalled in a dreamprophecy by Dany in the House
of the Undying as declaring his son (Aegon VI) to be the prince who was
promised, whose song is a song of ice and fire.

"Will
you make a song for him?" the woman asked.

"He
has a song," the man replied. "He is the prince that was promised,
and his is the song of ice and fire."

-ACOK,
Daenerys IV

The Targaryen’s are the last of the noble-blooded families of ancient Valyria,
first of the fourteen fires of Old Valyria, later of the volcanic island of
Dragonstone, eventual conquerors of Westeros and kings of the Seven Kingdoms. Rhaegar’s
parents were King Aerys II and his sisterwife Queen Rhaella, the children of
King Jaehaerys II, who was himself the second son of King Aegon V (our beloved
Egg from Dunk & Egg). One day at the Targaryen summer home of Summerhall, the
wife of Aegon V’s first son Duncan the Small, Jenny of Oldstones, brought her
friend, a wisewoman, who made a prophecy that the Prince that Was Promised
(TPTWP) would be born of the line of
Aerys and Rhaella. Rhaegar’s grandfather Jaehaerys II basically forced
Aerys and Rhaella to marry after this and thus Rhaegar was born of that
marriage and later his brother Viserys II (deceased) and Danaerys Stormborn
would be born to this line as well. It’s a mouthful but there you go.

Rhaegar was born at that very same Summerhall amidst a disaster known
as the Tragedy of Summerhall, where a great fire took the lives of King Aegon
and Duncan the Small as well as Lord Commander of the Kingsguard Ser Duncan the
Tall. Others died as well, though a full list is not recounted. Jaehaerys II
assumed the throne but died shortly after and then Aerys II took the throne,
thus Rhaegar became the Prince of Dragonstone at a very young age.

Rhaegar’s story in the books is patched together through misdirected
recollections of his contemporaries. He was remembered for his bookish ways,
mature viewpoints and disinterest in swordplay. Also for playing the harp.

As a
young boy, the Prince of Dragonstone was bookish to a fault. He was reading so early
that men said Queen Rhaella must have
swallowed some books and a candle whilst he was in her womb. Rhaegar took no
interest in the play of other children. The maesters were awed by his wits, but his father’s knights would jest sourly that Baelor the Blessed had been born
again. Until one day Prince Rhaegar found something in his scrolls that changed
him. No one knows what it might have been, only that the
boy suddenly appeared early one morning in the yard as the knights were donning their steel. He walked up to Ser Willem Darry, the master-at-arms, and said, 'I will require a
sword and armor. It seems I must be a warrior.’

-ASOS
page 91

Somewhere amongst the ruins of his birthplace of Summerhall, somewhere
amongst the scrolls and lore he was studying, he thought himself the prince who
was promised, went to the master-at-arms and said it seems he must be a
warrior. I take note of his excellent intellect and curiosity, his comparison
to Baelor and his internalization of prophecy.

“Yes.
And yet Summerhall was the place the prince loved best. He would go there from
time to time, with only his harp for company. Even the knights of the Kingsguard
did not attend him there. He liked to sleep in the ruined hall, beneath the
moon and stars, and whenever he came back he would bring a song. When you heard
him play his high harp with the silver strings and sing of twilights and tears
and the death of kings, you could not but feel that he was singing of himself
and those he loved.”

-ASOS,
pg. 486

Let’s review
what all this TPTWP fuss is about.

The Prince
that Was Promised is a prophecy of a hero or savior who will be born amidst
smoke and salt, under a bleeding star, and whose song shall be the song of ice
and fire. Azor Ahai is a legendary figure who bears the Red Sword of Heroes,
Lightbringer. Lightbringer was forged by thrusting a finely crafted sword
through the heart of Azor Ahai’s wife, synonymous with the moon, Nissa Nissa.
Prophecy tells that Azor Ahai will be reborn and foretells the coming of the
Prince that was Promised. It is unclear if the TPtWP and AA are part of the
same prophecy or different but both AA and TPTWP will fight the darkness in the
war for the dawn.

Seemingly,
Rhaegar discovered a prophecy that made him think he was the prince that was
promised. He trains to be a warrior. He later decides he is not the prince that
was promised and thinks instead it is his son Aegon. Perhaps he learns the
nuances of Azor Ahai and the Prince That Was Promised but who knows.

"Rhaegar,
I thought … the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of
his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief
when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who
fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King’s Landing on the
night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be
a comet."

-Maester
Aemon to Sam, AFFC chapter 35

It bears
mentioning that Old Nan tells the story of the Long Night which occurred long
ago and brought about the Last Hero who may or may not have had a legendary
sword and may or may not be AA or TPTWP. Hard to say.

So anyway,
Rhaegar marries Elia of Dorne, cementing Dorne’s allegiance to the Seven
Kingdoms. They first have a baby girl, Rhaenys.
Maester Aemon later makes a point of noting that dragons are genderless so
TPTWP could be male or female but at this point Rhaegar would not have that
interpretation. His wife is weak after giving birth to his firstborn daughter
but he has a second child by Elia whom he names Aegon (VI). Elia nearly dies in
childbirth the second time. One of Dany’s dreamprophecies in the House of the
Undying is a dialogue between Rhaegar and Elia, about Aegon.

"Will
you make a song for him?" the woman asked.

"He
has a song," the man replied. "He is the prince that was promised,
and his is the song of ice and fire."

-ACOK,
Daenerys IV

Sorry for
using this quote three times already but it’s the best and only instance I know
of where they say ‘a song of ice and fire’ in the ASOIAF series. Time goes by
and Rhaegar’s father descends into madness as some Targaryens do. A popular
theory called Southron Ambitions is that several paramount lords like Stark,
Arryn and Tully and perhaps Baratheon and Lannister formed secret marriage
alliances to protect themselves from an increasingly unstable King Aerys II
Targaryen, the Mad King. The paramount lords start fostering their children
with other paramount lords and eventually Brandon Stark is betrothed to Catelyn
Tully, Robert Baratheon betrothed to Lyanna Stark, Lysa Tully betrothed to Jon
Arryn, and some rumors about Cersei Lannister marrying Edmure Tully or Ned
Stark or whatever, in the end Cersei ends up marrying Robert. All of this is
pretty uncommon in the seven kingdoms because paramount lords usually marry
their bannermen and not other paramount lords.

During this
time of scheming and consolidation of houses, Crown Prince Rhaegar Targaryen,
by way of his Kingsguard Ser Oswell Whent, asks Lord Whent of Harrenhal to
stage a tournament (Claimed by Barristan
in ADWD Chapter 67) thus providing the paramount lords a chance to convene
and enact a plan for deposing the king, and make way for Rhaegar to peacefully assume
the throne and rule as regent in Aerys’ place.

This type of
conspiracy is precedented in The Mystery Knight when Daemon II Blackfyre hosts
a rebel tournament at Whitewalls to conspire against the crown.

Since Aerys
had not left the Red Keep since the Defiance of Duskendale, Rhaegar and the lords assumed he would not
attend this tournament, but Aerys, informed of the plan by his Master of
Whisperers (Varys), intervenes and attends the tournament at Harrenhal himself
thus preventing the high lords from having their secret meeting. There is a
precedent for this as well when Bloodraven attends the rebel tournament in Dunk
& Egg’s The Mystery Knight to spy on the rebels.

II.The Prince of Dragonstone Bested them All:
The Kidnapping

So we get to
one of the most notable events of the series:

“The
tourney Lord Whent staged at Harrenhal beside the Gods Eye, in the year of the
false spring. A notable event. Besides the jousting, there was a mêlée in the
old style fought between seven teams of knights, as well as archery and
axe-throwing, a horse race, a tournament of singers, a mummer show, and many
feasts and frolics. Lord Whent was as open handed as he was rich. The lavish
purses he proclaimed drew hundreds of challengers. Even your royal father came
to Harrenhal, when he had not left the Red Keep for long years. The greatest
lords and mightiest champions of the Seven Kingdoms rode in that tourney, and
the Prince of Dragonstone bested them all.”

-
Barristan to Dany, ASOS Dany chapter 42

An important
side story of the tournament is that Howland Reed was getting bullied by some
other squires and is saved by the Knight of the Laughing Tree, a mysterious
knight with a smiling weirwood sigil. Additionally, the KotLT story and theory behind it, told to Bran Stark by Meera Reed, mentions
the beautiful Ashara Dayne and the little crannogman who couldn’t take his eyes
off of her. Just a fun little side story but with important future
consequences, Ashara Dayne probably did the dirty with Howland and therefore Meera
Reed is their daughter.

Ever
paranoid of plots against him, Aerys tasks Rhaegar (amongst others) with
discovering the identity of this mystery knight, which Rhaegar seemingly never
does.

Yet
when the jousting began, the day belonged to Rhaegar Targaryen. The crown prince wore the armor he would
die in: gleaming black plate with the three-headed dragon of his House wrought
in rubies on the breast. A plume of scarlet silk streamed behind him when he
rode, and it seemed no lance could touch him. Brandon fell to him, and
Bronze Yohn Royce, and even the splendid Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the
Morning.

-Eddard to Bran, AGOT

I’ll now
muddle into a grey area; glamours and such. The bolded quote above indicates my
speculation that Rhaegar used ruby glamours to cheat and win the tournament,
thus winning the rights to name Lyanna Stark the Queen of Love and Beauty and
some time later steal away with her. It is not necessary to my alternative
story if Rhaegar cheated to win, but since he probably organized this tournament
and changed the whole course of the kingdom through his victory, it would make
sense that he wouldn’t take any chances of losing if it could be helped. There
is precedent of black metal and rubies used for glamours (changing appearances)
by Maynard Plumm/Bloodraven (at a tournament no less) and Melisandre on Mance,
Rattleshirt and herself. She also uses a glamour on Stannis’ sword,
Lightbringer, which has a ruby hilt and was noted by Maester Aemon and Samwell
Tarly as giving off no heat. Apparently the sword, Lightbringer, should give
off heat from its flame.

If Rhaegar
used this ruby armor for glamour and manipulation at Harrenhal, perhaps he used
it again on the Ruby Ford at the moment of his apparent death, but more on that
later. There is also good reason
to believe Lyanna
Stark was the mysterious Knight of the Laughing Tree, but I digress.

So as
everyone knows, Rhaegar wins this tournament and famously declares Lyanna Stark
the Queen of Love and Beauty.

Ned
remembered the moment when all the smiles died, when Prince Rhaegar Targaryen
urged his horse past his own wife, the Dornish princess Elia Martell, to lay
the queen of beauty’s laurel in Lyanna’s lap. He could see it still: a crown of
winter roses, blue as frost.

-AGOT
Ned Chapter 58

Sometime
after the tournament, Rhaegar, evidently attracted to Lyanna more than all
others, including his own wife, absconded with Robert Baratheon’s betrothed
which was the catalyst that leads to the death of Lyanna’s lord father, Rickard
Stark and elder brother Brandon, who are put to death by the Mad King after Brandon
showed up in King’s Landing demanding that Rhaegar return Lyanna to Winterfell.
Aerys kills them brutally then demands the heads of Robert and Ned from Jon
Arryn who refuses. All three call their respective kingdoms’ banners and march to
war against the crown.

III.Elk, Shadowcat
and Prince in Black: The Battle of the Trident reimagined

A Game of Thrones, the book, begins about 15 years after Robert’s
Rebellion, otherwise known as the War of the Usurper, of which a key moment
which shifted the balance of power in Westeros occurred when the allied rebel
armies of Stark, Arryn, Tully and Baratheon led by Robert Baratheon met the
loyalist armies of the Targaryens led by the Crown Prince Rhaegar Targaryen in
the Battle of the Trident.

If the Battle on the Trident had gone differently, here would be the
alternate reality:

Prince
Rhaegar shook his head. "My royal sire fears your father more than he does
our cousin Robert. He wants you close, so Lord Tywin cannot harm him. I dare
not take that crutch away from him at such an hour."

Jaime's
anger had risen up in his throat. "I am not a crutch. I am a knight of the
Kingsguard."

Rhaegar
had put his hand on Jaime's shoulder. "When this battle's done I mean to
call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but... well,
it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return."

-Jaime 1 AFFC

The Battle went otherwise.

Multiple sources mention the battle, which ended when Robert caved in
the ruby encrusted breastplate of Rhaegar, scattering his rubies and his
retainers across the Ruby Ford, while he lay dying in the waters. Ruby, ruby,
ruby. Notably, two of the Kingsguard were also killed in this battle, Prince
Lewyn Martell and Ser Jonathor Darry. Rhaegar also had two squires, Myles
Mooten who died earlier at the Battle of the Bells and Richard Lonmouth, the
Knight of Skulls and Kisses, whose death is presumed at the Trident but unaccounted
for.

So we get to my first big leap; Rhaegar surviving Robert’s legendary
warhammer blow on the Ruby Ford, hang in there. As my theory will go on to
claim that Mance is Rhaegar in disguise, I’d like to use Mance’s origin story
and his story of his abandonment of the Night’s Watch. Mostly everything we
know about Mance’s origin came from him or Qhorin. This theory then assumes
Mance has lied to Jon Snow and the readers but there are some interesting
allegories to be found.

First of all, Mance Rayder is mentioned as early
as the first chapter of the first book, in the second paragraph with the story
of the Night’s Watch deserter:

The
man had been taken outside a small holdfast in the hills. Robb thought he was a
wildling, his sword sworn to Mance Rayder, the King beyond-the-Wall.

AGOT,
Bran Chapter 1

From Mance’s mouth we hear his origin story:

“My birth
is as low as a man’s can get, no septon’s ever smeared my head with oils, I
don’t own any castles, and my queen wears furs and amber, not silk and
sapphires. I am my own champion, my own fool, and my own harpist. You don’t
become King- beyond-the-Wall because your father was. The free folk won’t
follow a name, and they don’t care which brother was born first. They follow
fighters. When I left the Shadow Tower there were five men making noises about
how they might be the stuff of kings. Tormund was one, the Magnar another. The
other three I slew, when they made it plain they’d sooner fight than follow.”

(Jon X, ASoS)

His mention here of sapphires is telling. Here is a list of all 25
times in ASOIAF when sapphires were mentioned
and a secret was being withheld. What is Mance not sharing?

Say the secret is that Mance is Rhaegar, his birth was as high as a
man’s can get, a septon anointed his head with oils, he was the Prince of
Dragonstone and he clad himself in silks. He is still his own champion, fool
and harpist and he became King-beyond-the-Wall by his own merit, despite his
crazy father.

Ok, I’d next like to repurpose Mance’s story of abandoning the Wall
with Rhaegar’s ‘death’.

“One
day on a ranging we brought down a fine big elk. We were skinning it when the
smell of blood drew a shadowcat out of its lair. I drove it off, but not before
it shredded my cloak to ribbons. Do you see? Here, here, and here?” He chuckled.
“It shredded my arm and back as well, and I bled worse than the elk. My
brothers feared I might die before they got me back to Maester Mullin at the
Shadow Tower, so they carried me to a wildling village where we knew an old
wisewoman did some healing. She was dead, as it happened, but her daughter saw
to me. Cleaned my wounds, sewed me up, and fed me porridge and potions until I
was strong enough to ride again. And she sewed up the rents in my cloak as
well, with some scarlet silk from Asshai that her grandmother had pulled from
the wreck of a cog washed up on the Frozen Shore. It was the greatest treasure
she had, and her gift to me.” He swept the cloak back over his shoulders. “But
at the Shadow Tower, I was given a new wool cloak from stores, black and black,
and trimmed with black, to go with my black breeches and black boots, my black
doublet and black mail. The new cloak had no frays nor rips nor tears... and
most of all, no red. The men of the Night’s Watch dressed in black, Ser Denys
Mallister reminded me sternly, as if I had forgotten. My old cloak was fit for
burning now, he said.”
“I left the next morning... for a place where a kiss was not a crime, and a man
could wear any cloak he chose.”

(Jon
I, ASoS)

A fun side gamed called the Corn Code theory might indicate
that the ‘here, here, and here?’ question indicates uncertainty in the story.
But I won’t get into that.

I would repurpose this story instead as the story of Rhaegar meeting
Robert on the Trident. Robert is symbolized by the big elk (stag of Baratheon)
and the shadowcat is Robert’s fury. They wound each other. Robert is so wounded
that he cannot continue on to King’s Landing and Rhaegar, per the story, was
bleeding worse than the elk. Instead of getting to Maester Mullin and the
Shadow Tower, Rhaegar probably wanted to be with Lyanna at the Tower of Joy
where his Queen of Love and Beauty was on her deathbed. Anyway, he is hurt too
bad to make it far so his brothers bring him somewhere for immediate care. Rhaegar
is nursed back to health, perhaps by some kind of wisewoman. The only one I
know he is associated with is the Ghost of High Heart, who was once brought to Summerhall
by Jenny of Oldstones and foretold of TPTWP. At Summerhall, the wisewoman
foretold that TPTWP would be born of Aerys and Rhaella’s line. The Ghost is
alive per Arya and Brotherhood Without Banners encounter, but who knows what
happened with Rhaegar after the Battle.

This would be the point of the theory where Rhaegar ‘dies’ and dons a
new disguise. I think the red silk from Asshai in his cloak may be part of a
glamour, but I agree that is a stretch. Rhaegar
then hides in the Riverlands until he can reunite with Ser Arthur Dayne and
head to the Wall.

As cool as Mance’s background story is, a cog from Asshai crashing or
washing up on the Frozen Shore north of the Wall doesn’t make any sense. I made
a proposal earlier that he used the rubies as a glamour in the Harrenhal
Tourney. Perhaps the red silk plays a part in that too.

The
crown prince wore the armor he would die in: gleaming black plate with the
three-headed dragon of his House wrought in rubies on the breast. A plume of
scarlet silk streamed behind him when he rode, and it seemed no lance could
touch him. Brandon fell to him, and Bronze Yohn Royce, and even the splendid
Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning.

-Eddard to Bran, AGOT

Here is what Melisandre says of glamours:

“The spell is made of shadow and suggestion. Men
see what they expect to see. The bones are part of that.” Was I wrong to spare
this one? “If the glamor fails, they will kill you.”

Melisandre, ADwD

We will come back to the part about Rhaegar/Mance
joining and abandoning the Night’s Watch soon.

IV.Our Knees do Not
Bend Easily: The Tower of Joy

After the Battle of the Trident and with Robert wounded, Ned leads the
armies to King’s Landing and Storm’s End, then takes a small detachment of his
close friends to pursue Lyanna. He finds Lyanna under guard by three Kingsguard
at the Tower of Joy near the Prince’s Pass in the Red Mountains of Dorne.

“I
came down on Storm's End to lift the siege,” Ned told
them, and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dipped their banners, and all their knights bent
the knee to pledge us fealty. I was certain you would be among them.”

“But
not of the Kingsguard,” Ser Gerold pointed out. “The Kingsguard does not flee.”

“Then
or now,” said Ser Arthur. He donned his helm.

“We
swore a vow,” explained old Ser Gerold.

Ned’s
wraiths moved up beside him, with shadow swords in hand. They were seven
against three.

“And
now it begins,” said Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning. He unsheathed Dawn and held it with both hands. The blade was pale
as milkglass, alive with light.

“No,”
Ned said with sadness in his voice. “Now it ends.”

-AGOT
Chapter 39

I’d like to note Ser Arthur’s comment, ‘Our knees do not bend easily,’
as another important character says something similar later.

Here is my alternate theory on the skirmish at the Tower of Joy. The
fight takes place with seven northmen against three Kingsguard; Lord Commander
Gerold Hightower, Ser Oswell Whent, and Ser Arthur Dayne against the northmen; Ned
Stark, Howland Reed and Lord Dustin, a Cassel, a Wull, a Glover, and a Ryswell.

We should assume the Kingsguard are as legendary that day as they
should be, because why wouldn’t they be, and hold their own against the seven.
As Jaime Lannister remembered he could, Arthur Dayne fights against several men,
including Ned Stark, the best of the northern fighters, and Martyn Cassel,
captain of Ned’s household guard. Howland Reed at first refuses to fight his brother-in-law, Ser Arthur,
and abstains from the fighting, trying to calm hotter heads and propose a peace
agreement. Lord Dustin and Mark Ryswell, family friend of the Dustins (Barbrey
Ryswell had married Lord Dustin) take on the aging White Bull, Ser Gerold
Hightower. Let’s say all three suffer injury and die of their wounds because I
don’t have any leads on them from after this day. Theo Wull (Bucket), advanced
in age and Ethan Glover, former squire of Ned’s brother Brandon and rusty from
dwelling for months in the dungeons of King’s Landing since Brandon’s death, take
on Ser Oswell who defeats them both. As the fighting settles and the odds turn
in favor of the Kingsguard, Arthur presses the attack on Ned but Howland finally
enters the fray in defense of his liege lord and severs the fingers of the
Sword of the Morning’s fighting hand.

I
learned from Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, who could have slain
all five of you with his left hand while he was taking a piss with his right.

-Jaime to Kingsguard, ASOS chapter 67

Ser Arthur continues to fight with his left hand and Ned decides to
yield. Thus Howland Reed saves Ned from Ser Arthur.

“The
finest knight I ever saw was Ser Arthur Dayne, who fought with a blade called
Dawn, forged from the heart of a fallen star. They called him the Sword of the Morning, and he would
have killed me but for Howland Reed.”

-Ned Stark to Bran, ACOK chapter 21

The fighting subsides and the two remaining Kingsguard escort Ned to
his dying sister’s bedside, where he first meets the infant Jon Snow. Lyanna
makes Ned promise to care for the child, to keep him secret and safe. She dies
with a smell of blood and roses in the air.

“Promise
me, Ned.”

-AGOT,
Ned chapter 48

So this story is only different from the original in that Ser Oswell
and Ser Arthur survive instead of die. Since they were two of the best swordmen
in the realm (albeit not much accreditation to Ser Oswell’s exploits, just that
he was part of the most legendary Kingsguard of all time) and since there is a
sliver of evidence which lets me think they lived, let’s say they lived and
keep going with this.

The four remaining combatants, Ser Arthur, Ser Oswell, Ned and
Howland, reach a settlement. Howland Reed and Ned resolve to return to Starfall,
with the bones of Ser Arthur (which are actually those of Lord Dustin.. I say
this because Lady Barbrey is mad that she never received Lord Dustin’s bones)
and the sword Dawn, to lay the foundations of the lie of Ser Arthur’s death, claim
Howland’s wife Ashara Dayne and their infant daughter Meera, who was conceived
at the Tournament of Harrenhal, and return to Greywater Watch in the Neck.
Ashara fakes her death with the legendary leap from the Palestone Tower and has
been living in the Neck unseen since then. Nobody has seen Howland Reed but a
handful of times since this day, and their castle has no maesters
or ravens and apparently floats around, so Ashara living in secrecy seems
plausible.

Ser Arthur agrees to take the black at the Shadow Tower under the name
of Qhorin Halfhand, hoping to reunite with his liege, Prince Rhaegar, soon to
be disguised as Mance Rayder. Remember my theory has Howland Reed chopping off
some of his fingers while saving Ned, which is badass, but Qhorin’s story is
that a wildling chopped of some of his fingers with an ax. Potato/Patato. The Lord
Commander of the Night’s Watch, Qorgyle of Sandstone, friend of Winterfell and
originally from a castle close to the Dayne’s Starfall, maybe helps with this
ruse.

Ser Oswell, a good man and true, cannot agree to take the black and
accuses Ser Arthur of doing the one thing the Kingsguard must not, giving up
the safety of the only assuredly living king, Jon Snow. Ser Oswell instead
adopts the name of Oswell Kettleblack to embrace his shame and flees to the
Vale. He eventually joins the service of Petyr Baelish and his sons serve on
Cercei’s Kingsguard and as bodyguards. Is this too much of a stretch?.. guy
with the same first name who was on the Kingsguard himself, didn’t die, fled
and had sons who through connections and some prowess get on the Kingsguard
too. Maybe but I like it and the Kettleblacks are a little mysterious.

·Ser Gerold
Hightower – Deceased or returns to the Hightower in Oldtown

·Lord Willam Dustin
- Deceased

·Ethan Glover -
Deceased

·Martyn Cassel -
Deceased

·Theo Wull - Deceased

·Mark Ryswell –
Deceased

·Lyanna Stark -
Deceased

·Jon Snow –
returns to Winterfell with Eddard Stark

V.Shadows Are
Friends to Men in Black: Joining the Night’s Watch

So now we have both Rhaegar and Arthur alive and
with the purpose of taking the Black to defend the realm at the Wall. Rhaegar
wants to do this to serve a great cause of battling the coming winter in the
song of ice and fire. Arthur wants to serve his friend and king. Both were
wounded in their battles. Both are well known, easily recognized characters so
they would need fail-proof disguises and cover stories.

So yes, it’s convenient to the entire plot of the story for Rhaegar to
still be alive and to continue his pursuit of prophecy and defense of the realm
of men. He seemingly died at Robert’s hand on the Trident with hundreds of
witnesses etc. but maybe glamours, maybe faked death, maybe carried away and
was only wounded. Maybe it wasn’t Rhaegar but someone disguised in his famous
armor like when Garlan Tyrell wore Renly’s famous green armor and antlered helm
in the Battle of the Blackwater and hundreds believed it was Renly’s ghost.
Remember people close to Rhaegar like Ser Jonathor Darry and Ser Richard
Lonmouth also died in this battle with no attribution to their death. Maybe
people were distracted because they were chasing his scattered rubies or
getting the wounded Robert to safety. Sure GRRM said Rhaegar died and was
cremated but he can’t very well say otherwise, and Rhaegar’s sister survived
her little adventure into Drogo’s funeral pyre and was reborn as the Mother of
Dragons. There are plenty of instances where those thought dead were actually
not dead. I know, it’s a stretch but it’s possible, and if he didn’t die it
would have to be kept secret and where better to start again fresh but as a man
of the Night’s Watch, whose purpose is to defend the realms of men.

Rhaegar, now healed and disguised as Mance
rendezvouses with Ser Arthur and proceeds to the Shadow Tower. Mance takes the vows, stays awhile but
eventually heads beyond-the-wall for a place where a kiss was not a crime, and
a man could wear any cloak he chose.

A reminder of what Rhaegar was like:

“What
was he truly like?”

The
old man considered a moment. “Able.
That above all. Determined, deliberate, dutiful, single-minded.”

-
Barristan and Dany, about Rhaegar, ASOS page 111

Let’s quickly recap.

The lords of the seven kingdoms want to get rid of the crazy king and
put the younger prince into power instead. The prince thinks it’s a good idea
for him to take power as regent, especially if it can be done peacefully but Aerys
shows up at the tournament and derails the coup d’etat. Rhaegar, however, has
always had bigger plans. He unmasks the Knight of the Laughing Tree and is
surprised to discover a woman as fierce and brave as any man at the tournament.
He keeps her identity secret but falls in love with her, naming her the Queen
of Love and Beauty and later stealing her away in the tradition of wilding
courtship. War ensues, one thing leads to another and Rhaegar realizes his duty
to the realm might be better conducted away from the throne. He fakes his death
at the Ruby Ford, sharing his plan to do so only with his trusted friend Ser
Arthur Dayne and his second wife, Lyanna Stark, both of whom later tell Ned at
the Tower of Joy, swearing him to secrecy and entrusting him with the prince
that was promised, Jon Snow.

Rhaegar assumes the identity of Mance Rayder and Ser Arthur assumes
the identity of his friend Qhorin Halfhand. Both join the Night’s Watch at the
Shadow Tower and are known as capable rangers. Both Qhorin and Mance have back
stories and people attest to their time on the wall, though nothing overly
specific. Some trickery was needed to disguise them, place them and create
background stories, but at least they are at the Shadow Tower which is the
least exposed of all Night’s Watch castles.

If Mance is Rhaegar why doesn’t he look like Rhaegar? The series is
rife with disguises (Mance as Abel, Varys as Rugen, etc.), glamours (Bloodraven
as Maynard Plumm, Mance as Rattleshirt, Melisandre’s manipulation of
‘Lightbringer’), and identify theft (Jaqen H’gar as the Alchemist, Jaqen H’gar
as Pate, Arya as whoever, the Faceless Men’s wall of faces). It seems that the
Faceless Men can assume the identify of anyone with a similar body type by
magically adhering the face of a corpse to their own face. If Rhaegar has
access to this type of magic (there isn’t any evidence of this) anything is
possible. Similar to this, Mance spends several months captive at the wall,
disguised as Rattleshirt under glamour. Maybe we can add the title of Lord of
Bones to Mance’s list of titles and as Melisandre tells Mance the bones remember perhaps there are
some lingering memories that stay with the bones and impart the wearer, similar
to the faces the Faceless Men use.

Here is a list of 28 main and minor characters in the series that
either seemed to die and didn’t or assumed a disguise of some sort:

Ok, so Rhaegar and Arthur do this secret identity stuff and serve for
a time at the wall. During this time, Mance makes frequent trips to Winterfell,
perhaps to counsel with Ned, perhaps to see his son Jon Snow, perhaps to visit
the tomb of his dead wife, Lyanna, perhaps to continue investigating his
greater calling of fighting the cold forces of evil. Why was Mance, a regular
old Night’s Watchman from the Shadow Tower escorting Lord Qorgyle of Castle
Black to Winterfell all the time? Weird.

You were just a boy, and I was all in black, one
of a dozen riding escort to old Lord Commander Qorgyle when he came down to see
your father at Winterfell.

(Jon I, ASoS)

Recall the story of Bael the Bard, a wildling King-Beyond-the-Wall who
stole away the only daughter of Lord Stark and fathered a son with her. Recall
Rhaegar, a famous singer, stealing away Lyanna Stark and fathering a son on
her. Recall finally Mance Rayder, disguised as Abel the bard, infiltrating
Winterfell under control of Roose Bolton to save the fake Arya Stark. Bael the
bard, Abel the bard, Mance Rayder the warrior bard, Rhaegar the warrior bard, Abel,
able, Bael, Ruby, Ruby, Ruby, Glenn Beck word association!! Ok, moving on.

VI.You don’t become
King- beyond-the-Wall because your Father Was:
Army Muster

Rhaegar is now Mance. Eventually, Mance abandons the Night’s Watch to
join the Free Folk north of the wall. He spends years rallying most of the
wilding clans to his cause by besting their clan champions and joining them to
his army. Apparently there were five other would-be kings-beyond-the-wall.
Mance killed three while Tormund and the Magnar of Thenn joined his cause.

Mance had spent years assembling this vast
plodding host, talking to this clan mother and that magnar, winning one village
with sweet words and another with a song and a third with the edge of his
sword, making peace between Harma Dogshead and the Lord o’ Bones, between the
Hornfoots and the Nightrunners, between the walrus men of the Frozen Shore and
the cannibal clans of the great ice rivers, hammering a hundred different
daggers into one great spear, aimed at the heart of the Seven Kingdoms. He had
no crown nor scepter, no robes of silk and velvet, but it was plain to Jon that
Mance Rayder was a king in more than name.

(Jon II, ASoS)

I like the part about a hundred different daggers. It reminds me of
the swords that make up the Iron Throne. After years of this, Mance becomes
known as the King-Beyond-The-Wall with a massive, though undisciplined army.
Knowing winter is coming, and knowing the Others are coming, his goal is to get
the wildings south of the wall. Maybe for the same reason as Jon wants the
wildlings south of the wall, because hundreds of thousands of dead wildlings
will be reanimated as undead wights.

You know nothing. You killed a dead man, aye, I
heard. Mance killed a hundred.

Tormund to Jon, Jon XII, ADwD

“Raymun Redbeard, Bael the Bard, Gendel and Gorne,
the Horned Lord, they all came south to conquer, but I’ve come with my tail
between my legs to hide behind your Wall.”

Mance to Jon, ASoS, Jon X

Mance searches through old graves looking for the Horn of Winter and
seemingly never finds it. Jon and Sam did once find a horn filled with
dragonglass spears at the Fist of the First Men. The horn seemed broken and so
Jon gave it to Sam and the horn is now with Mance’s son Aemon Steelsong on
their way to Dany. More on that soon.

Mance finally attacks the Wall, is routed by Jon and more so by
Stannis. Stannis would be Mance’s cousin but that’s probably not relevant here,
although Stannis saw his father drown on a return trip from the free cities to
look for a bride for Rhaegar under Aerys’ orders. Anyway, Mance is captured and
his wife Dalla dies during the battle birthing his son. A quick side story:

Jon switched Gilly’s baby with Mance’s baby so that Melisandre can’t
burn the baby for kingsblood and sends Gilly, Sam, the baby, and Maester Aemon
off to Oldtown. Gilly and Sam discuss naming Mance’s baby Aemon Steelsong, a
notably Targaryen name, after the maester. Let’s just call this a beautiful
poetic coincidence. If Mance is Rhaegar, Dalla would be his third wife and Aemon
Steelsong his third son. This would be his second wife to die in child birth,
the other being Lyanna Stark. His first wife, Elia, almost died birthing Aegon
and Rhaenys before that.

Sam and co. arrive in Oldtown. Sam says:

“Can Gilly stay aboard till I return?”
“Gilly can stay as long as she likes.” She poked Sam in the belly with a
finger. “She does not eat so much as some.”

(Samwell
V, AFfC)

Sam the Slayer, gets off the boat and immediately meets Alleras the
Sphinx and Marwyn the Mage who hears Sam’s story and immediately leaves. Sam
asks Marwyn what he’s going to do:

“Get myself to Slaver’s Bay, in Aemon’s place.
The swan ship that delivered Slayer should serve my needs well enough. The grey
sheep will send their man on a galley, I don’t doubt. With fair winds I should
reach her first.”
[...]
“Sphinx, look after this one.”
“I will,” Alleras answered, but the archmaester was already gone. They heard
his boots stomping down the steps.
“Where has he gone?” asked Sam, bewildered.
“To the docks. The Mage is not a man who believes in wasting time.”

(Samwell V, AFfC)

So Mance’s baby, Aemon Steelsong, may accidently be headed for
Daenarys aboard the Cinnamon Wind with Marwyn. Dany would be Aemon’s aunt. Let’s
get back to the original theory and cite a few more pieces of speculation.

VII.The Halfhand of
the King

If we could prove that Qhorin Halfhand was Ser Arthur Dayne it would
lend a lot more credence to Mance being Rhaegar. Sadly, there isn’t much direct
evidence but it is fun to reread thinking it could be true.

When Jon and Qhorin first meet:

The ranger gave his horse into the care of one of
his men and followed. “You are Jon Snow. You have your father’s look.”

(Jon V, ACoK)

Jon is never described as looking like Ned Stark, though he is
mentioned as looking like Arya who is described as looking Lyanna. I believe
Robb, Sansa and Bran are noted more for their Tully features. Qhorin as Arthur
would know Jon’s father, Mance/Rhaegar but this proves nothing for Qhorin maybe
just knows the ‘Stark look’.. Mance later says:

The
singer rose to his feet. “I’m Mance Rayder,” he said as he put aside the lute.
“And you are Ned Stark’s bastard, the Snow of Winterfell.”

Stunned,
Jon stood speechless for a moment, before he recovered enough to say, “How...
how could you know...”

(Jon
I, ASoS)

Note he did not say Ned Stark’s son or bastard son. These comments are
interesting because both Qhorin and Mance recognize Jon on site. However, Mance
has secretly seen Jon Snow multiple times in Winterfell, including when Robert
came to ask Ned to be Hand:

I took a
lute and a bag of silver, scaled the ice near Long Barrow, walked a few leagues
south of the New Gift, and bought a horse. All in all I made much better time
than Robert, who was traveling with a ponderous great wheelhouse to keep his
queen in comfort. A day south of Winterfell I came up on him and fell in with
his company. Freeriders and hedge knights are always attaching themselves to
royal processions, in hopes of finding service with the king, and my lute
gained me easy acceptance.” He laughed. “I know every bawdy song that’s ever
been made, north or south of the Wall. So there you are. The night your father
feasted Robert, I sat in the back of his hall on a bench with the other
freeriders, listening to Orland of Oldtown play the high harp and sing of dead
kings beneath the sea. I betook of your lord father’s meat and mead, had a look
at Kingslayer and Imp... and made passing note of Lord Eddard’s children and
the wolf pups that ran at their heels.”

ASOS,
Jon I

Here it seems that Mance does refer to Ned as Jon’s lord father, but
also distinguishes that from Lord Eddard’s children, no longer referring to
Jon. Not sure what to make of this.

Here is a recount of Qhorin and Jon on Jon’s first ranging. The next
few quotations are pretty long but they have some deep stuff and I’ve
highlighted some noteworthy parts:

Ghost padded restlessly by Jon's side. From time
to time he would stop and turn, his ears pricked,

as if he heard something behind them. Jon did not
think the shadowcats would attack living men, not unless they were starving,
but he loosened Longclaw in its scabbard even so.
A wind-carved arch of grey stone marked the highest point of the pass. Here the
way broadened as it began its long descent toward the valley of the Milkwater.
Qhorin decreed that they would rest here until the shadows began to
grow again. "Shadows are friends to
men in black," he said.
Jon saw the sense of that. It would be pleasant to ride in
the light for a time, to let the bright mountain sun soak through
their cloaks and chase the chill from their bones, but they dared not. Where
there were three watchers there might be others, waiting to sound
the alarm.
Stonesnake curled up under his ragged fur cloak and was asleep almost at once.
Jon shared his salt beef with Ghost while Ebben and Squire Dalbridge fed the
horses. Qhorin Halfhand sat with his back to a rock, honing the edge of his
longsword with long slow strokes. Jon watched the ranger for a few moments,
then summoned his courage and went to him. "My lord," he said,
"you never asked me how it went. With the girl."
"I am no lord, Jon Snow." Qhorin slid the stone smoothly along
the steel with his two-fingered hand."She told me Mance would take me,
if I ran with her."
"She told you true."
"She even claimed we were kin. She told me a story . . . "
" . . . of Bael the Bard and the
rose of Winterfell. So Stonesnake told me. It happens I know the song. Mance would sing it of old, when he came back
from a ranging. He had a passion for wildling music. Aye, and for their
women as well."
"You knew him?""We all knew him." His voice
was sad.
They were friends as well as brothers, Jon realized, and now they are sworn
foes. "Why did he desert?"
"For a wench, some say. For a crown, others would have it." Qhorin
tested the edge of his sword with the ball of his thumb. "He liked women,
Mance did, and he was not a man whose
knees bent easily, that's true. But
it was more than that. He loved the wild better than the Wall. It was in
his blood. He was wildling born, taken as a child when some raiders were put to
the sword. When he left the Shadow Tower he was only going home
again."
"Was he a good ranger?""He was the best of us,"
said the Halfhand, "and the worst as well. Only fools like Thoren
Smallwood despise the wildlings. They are as brave as we are, Jon. As strong,
as quick, as clever. But they have no discipline. They name themselves the free
folk, and each one thinks himself as good as a king and wiser than a maester.
Mance was the same. He never learned how to obey."
"No more than me," said Jon quietly.Qhorin's shrewd grey eyes seemed to see
right through him. "So you let her go?" He did not sound the
least surprised.
[…]
"I did not command it. I told you to do what needed to be done, and left
you to decide what that would be." Qhorin stood and slid his longsword
back into its scabbard. "When I want a mountain scaled, I call on
Stonesnake. Should I need to put an arrow through the eye of some foe across a
windy battlefield, I summon Squire Dalbridge. Ebben can make any man give up
his secrets. To lead men you must know
them, Jon Snow. I know more of you now than I did this morning."
"And if I had slain her?" asked Jon.
"She would be dead, and I would know you better than I had before. But
enough talk. You ought be sleeping. We have leagues to go, and dangers to face.
You will need your strength."

(Jon VII, ACoK)

This passage points out how well Qhorin knew Mance, and how highly he
thought of him. His comment about Mance’s knees not bending easily echoes Ser
Arthur Dayne’s comment to Ned Stark at the Tower of Joy that the knees of the
Kingsguard do not bend so easily. Qhorin shrewdly seeing through Jon may
indicate Qhorin taking a deeper look at the important character that is Jon
Snow, sizing him up. The comment about leading men by knowing them first would
echo Rhaegar leading the wildings by becoming one of them as Mance.

It seems
that the wildlings will only accept Jon Snow’s defection of the Watch under
certain conditions. Here is how Qhorin charges him:

“We
may escape them yet,” the ranger said. “Or not.”

“I’m
not afraid to die.” It was only half a lie.

“It
may not be so easy as that, Jon.”

He
did not understand. “What do you mean?”

“If
we are taken, you must yield.”

“Yield?”
He blinked in disbelief. The wildlings did not make captives of the men they
called the crows. They killed them, except for . . . “They only spare oathbreakers. Those who join them, like Mance Rayder.”

“And
you.”

“No.”
He shook his head. “Never. I won’t.”

“You
will. I command it of you.”

“Command
it? But . . .”

“Our honor means no more than our lives, so
long as the realm is safe. Are you a man of the Night’s Watch?”

“Yes,
but—”

“There
is no but, Jon Snow. You are, or you are not.”

Jon
sat up straight. “I am.”

“Then
hear me. If we are taken, you will go over to them, as the wildling girl you
captured once urged you. They may demand that you cut your cloak to ribbons, that you swear them an oath on your
father’s grave, that you curse your brothers and your Lord Commander. You must
not balk, whatever is asked of you. Do as they bid you . . . but in your heart, remember who and what you
are. Ride with them, eat with them, fight with them, for as long as it
takes. And watch.”

“For
what?” Jon asked.

“Would
that I knew,” said Qhorin. “Your wolf saw their diggings in the valley of the
Milkwater. What did they seek, in such a bleak and distant place? Did they find
it? That is what you must learn, before you return to Lord Mormont and your
brothers. That is the duty I lay on you, Jon Snow.”

There is a little cited story of one of Qhorin’s exploits. Apparently,
he spent a year alone in the Skirlling Pass on a ranging, his company all dead,
and survived to return to the Shadow Tower. I’ll have to look harder for this
quote. I would surmise that he used that time to meet for a final time with
Mance, who was gathering an army in the Frostfangs beyond the Skirlling Pass,
and make plans for the reunion of Jon Snow and Rhaegar as Mance. Until I find
the quote, forget that. Anyway, here is Qhorin’s demise:

The
big spearwife narrowed her eyes and said, “If the crow would join the free
folk, let him show us his prowess and prove the truth of him.”

And
then Qhorin’s sword was coming at him and somehow Longclaw leapt upward to
block. The force of impact almost knocked the bastard blade from Jon’s hand,
and sent him staggering backward. You must not balk, whatever is asked of you.

[…]

Even
when Ghost's teeth closed savagely around the ranger's calf, somehow Qhorin
kept his feet. But in that instant, as he twisted, the opening was there. Jon
planted and pivoted. The ranger was leaning away, and for an instant it seemed
that Jon's slash had not touched him. Then a string of red tears appeared
across the big man's throat, bright as a ruby necklace, and the blood gushed
out of him, and Qhorin Halfhand fell.

[…]

He
knew, he thought numbly. He knew what
they would ask of me.

AKOK, Jon chapter 68

Interesting about the ruby reference but no matter. If Qhorin Halfhand
is Ser Arthur Dayne then it seems like a dull ending for the infamous Sword of
the Morning. Even a bywatcher of the fight comments:

However, perhaps this was always Ser Arthur’s purpose. It would be a bittersweet
irony if Qhorin/Arthur, of the Kingsguard and Night’s Watch, died defending the
Targaryen prince Jon Snow, as he was first thought to have done at the Tower of
Joy. At least he died with steel in his hand, serving and protecting his king’s
son.

We
can only die. Why else do we don these black cloaks, but to die in defense of
the realm?

Qhorin
to Lord Commander Jeor Mormont, AKOK, Jon chapter 43

VIII.Sister and Sons

I’m going to wrap up with some conjectures about the future of the story
and where I think things are headed.

Let’s look at the uncertain statuses of Rhaegar’s sister and sons after
A Dance With Dragons. We last found Daenarys in a feverish stupor on the
Dothraki Sea. She and Drogon seem to be bonding as they encountered the horde
of Khal Jhoqo. As the Dothraki value an indisputable champion and renowned
rider, it would seem that the once and future Khalessi is about to command a
powerful khalasar. Her eastern seat of power, Meereen, is in absolute disarray
with the united slaver armies besieging the city, the Son’s of the Harpy
staging an insurgency while a plague ravages the city from within, and the Iron
Fleet under Victarion Greyjoy recently invading the shores of Slaver’s Bay.
There are also two full grown, rider-less dragons on the loose. Dany’s long
stated goal is to take the Iron Throne, however, she has had quite a journey
building the army she plans to retake Westeros with and may be surprised to
learn that her brother and several nephews are alive and well… ish. It is
fitting that the Battle of Ice between Stannis and Winterfell and the Battle of
Fire at Meereen are taking place at the same time. I’d imagine the showy but
impractical slaver armies will wither under dragon fire and Ser Barristan’s
bold leadership. We can also assume that Victarion will help fight Dany’s
enemies at least until he can attempt to claim her and/or her dragons. Since
the dragons are the best possible weapon against The Others, the sooner the
dragons can get to the Wall under competent selfless riders, the better for the
Realm.

As mentioned before, Mance’s baby Aemon Steelsong may be aboard the
Cinnamon Wind with Gilly and Marwyn the Mage (and the strange horn from the
Fist of the First Men that Jon gave Sam as a drinking horn) bound for Dany and
Meereen. Somehow Marwyn, this secret Targaryen baby and this probably important
dragon horn are going to come into Daenarys periphery. A weird irony is that
the wisewoman who made Dany miscarry and turned Drogo into a zombie learned her
magic from Marwyn, and now Marwyn is heading to Dany with her baby nephew. Don’t
forget, Victarion has a magical horn as well and plans to harness a dragon with
it. We will see how that goes. As for Aemon, I think he will end up in Dany’s
care somehow and she will treat him as her own, although he is actually her
nephew.

Moving on to Aegon VI, there is much speculation that he is not who he
claims to be, whether he knows this or not, and is secretly a Blackfyre. He was
raised under a carefully scripted upbringing by Illyrio and Varys to be the
best possible leader a kingdom could ask for. He was sent to rendezvous with
Dany but after some conversation with Tyrion Lannister, he changed his plans
and brought the Golden Company to the stormlands and somehow captured Storm’s
End. His reason for doing so was to have something to offer Daenarys in a
marriage proposal besides just his name. I am of the opinion that Aegon is not
a fake and that his story is true. If this is so, it would seem that Varys is a
long standing agent for Rhaegar. After all, Varys claims to have saved Aegon
from the Lannister army during the Sack of King’s Landing. All things
considered, it might have been Rhaegar’s desire for his father to attend the
Tournament of Harrenhal and prevent himself from being ushered to the Iron
Throne, setting up instead for the story that played out. Varys was the one who
whispered for Aerys to attend that tournament. Varys also did his best to
secure Ned Stark a path to join the Night’s Watch after his arrest for treason.
Perhaps Aegon will marry Arianne Martell to keep Dorne in the fold, as Aegon’s
father once did, though this may be unnecessary as he is half Dornish already.
There is definitely the chance that Aegon and Daenarys will collide against
each other like the Targaryens did in the Dance of the Dragons or the Blackfyre
rebellions. They both seem to have serious resolve and seem set on their own
entitlements, but with winter arriving, external pressures may bring them
together. Let us return to the second son of Rhaegar and the true purpose for
all these promised princes.

Lord Commander Jon Snow was murdered on the Wall, Julius Caesar style,
by his fellow brothers. If everything in my theory so far is true, his death is
hardly final. Like his father Rhaegar and his half-brother Aegon VI, death may
only be a symbolic rebirth for a greater purpose. Death may free Jon Snow from
his oaths as a brother of the Night’s Watch. Though it seems Mance is currently
captured by Ramsay in Winterfell, this plays a part in convincing Jon Snow to
act rashly and draw the ire of his garrison. A reunion seems to be in the
offing.

For the entire series, winter has been coming but in the epilogue of A
Dance With Dragons, the white raven brings word that winter has come. Varys
returns to King’s Landing to remove the competent leadership perhaps with the
assistance of or in tandem with Baelish and/or the Kettleblacks, Aegon has
taken Storm’s End as Orys Baratheon once did for Aegon the Conqueror, Daenarys
finally has control of a dragon and Jon Snow may soon learn that Mance is
Rhaegar, that Rhaegar is his father and that they are Azor Ahai and the Prince
that Was Promised, who will need to rally the Seven Kingdoms to their cause in
the Battle for the Dawn.

Alternatively, Aegon may be a fake, Varys may be evil and Daenarys may
instead battle them or stay in Meereen. I hope not, Aegon seems legit even
though he was introduced super late in the books. IDK.

IX.Conclusions

So, if Mance is Rhaegar then Rhaegar is still alive. If Rhaegar is still
alive, he is the rightful ruler as King of the Seven Kingdoms, Lord of the
Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men. He is also King-Beyond-the-Wall. He also
might be prisoner to Ramsay in a cold cage in Winterfell for all the north to
see but this sets up nicely for the great reveal.

If Aegon is really Aegon VI, he is the heir to the throne and the Prince
of Dragonstone. He also solidifies Rhaegar’s marriage to Dorne.

If Rhaegar actually married Lyanna, then Jon Snow is legitimized as Jon
Targaryen and second in line after Aegon. Jon solidifies Rhaegar’s marriage to
the North.

Aemon Steelsong is a legitimate son of Mance Rayder, who was married to
Dalla, so Aemon Steelsong would be third in line to the throne. This would
solidify Rhaegar’s marriage to the lands beyond-the-wall.

Baby Aemon might soon be in the possession of his aunt, Daenarys, who
has no claim to the throne by the laws of male heredity but the Targaryens are
known for marrying their siblings and cousins so she might marry Rhaegar,
Aegon, Jon or Aemon.

Rhaegar as Mance as Rattleshirt beat Jon Snow in a sword fight so let’s
say he is the best swordsman of this group and that he ends up with his old
buddy Ser Arthur’s legendary sword Dawn, which seems to make sense as
Lightbringer since it was forged from a meteor from outer space thousands of
years ago and is called Dawn which is when the light of day is brought to the
dark of night. That makes Rhaegar/Mance into Azor Ahai.

Since Dany has a dreamprophecy where Rhaegar named Aegon the prince that
was promised it seems to make sense that Aegon is TPTWP. However, Jon Snow is a
better fit for having a song of ice and fire, since his mother was ice and his
father was fire. Baby Aemon is also a good fit for ice and fire since Mance is
fire and Dalla is ice. Dany fits the born amidst smoke and salt bit.

Maybe Dany can rally the eastern cities, the free cities and the
Ironborne through Victarion who brings the Iron Islands and by Euron’s conquest,
Highgarden, Oldtown and the Reach, Aegon can bring Dorne, Aegon and/or Stannis
the Stormlands, Jaime the Westerlands, Rickon the North, Sansa the Vale and
Riverlands, Mance the wildlings, Bran the Old Gods and Arya the full fury of a
thousand wolves.

We could just say they are all promised princes and princesses and they
will all be part of the greater song when the full forces of ice clash with the
full forces of fire. As for me, I’m rooting for Rhaegar.

A parting thought:

I think Mance’s name, which seems to reference no other character or
plot device, simply means home. A manse is a home. Home for Mance would be
Summerhall, so his adopted name would constantly remind Rhaegar of summer.

And yet
Summerhall was the place the prince loved best. He would go there from time to
time, with only his harp for company.

-ASOS,
pg. 486

I hope you enjoyed this, thanks for reading. Here’s a famous wildling
song which I like to think Mance wrote one time to give himself strength on his
long lonely mission. Of course there is no evidence for this. J