Thursday, February 01, 2007

Philly's Rising Homicides Are Bush's Fault!

"Recently, while meeting with the editorial board of The Philadelphia Daily News, [Philadelphia] Mayor John Street suggested that the war in Iraq was the cause of the city's gun violence increased.

"I believe the fact that we are a country at war has something to do with the attitude of people in the streets. Let me tell you, it's not just this city. I have seen it everywhere and I've talked to people a lot about it ... . We are a country that is becoming less and less civil. We are a place where people will pull out a gun and shoot it at the drop of a hat."

The author of the piece says the Blame bush theory may have some merit:

"So while the mayor is correct about a correlation between war and crime, he is incorrect about when it occurs. The increases in crime occur after the war.There are several theories as to why this may be. One, for example, is that most of the potential criminals - young men in their late teens and 20s - are in the military during the war. This limits the opportunity for this cohort, which is the most responsible for crime. After the war, they return to society with less attachment to the society which they left and with more knowledge of potential criminal skills.

It is also important to note that correlation is not causation. The idea that war causes crime is just a theory. It does not have many proponents in criminology." (source)

I am waiting for the first Philly jury that hears the "Bush made me do it by going to war in Iraq" defense.