Chris Wesseling

Dynasty Rankings

Dynasty Rankings: QBs

Welcome to Rotoworld's third annual pre-free agency Dynasty Rankings. The next six months are the prime season for Dynasty start-up drafts. These rankings will necessarily skew substantially younger than they would, say, in the bye-week crunch of early November when owners are scrambling for depth and sacrificing talented reserves for a shot at the championship banner. One of the major keys to success in start-up drafts is to anchor each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) with at least one young nucleus player who can be expected to produce at a high level for the next half-decade.

As we explained early last month in the Top-50 KeeperRanks, the NFL's Robin Hood coaches have been stealing fantasy value from running backs and distributing it among quarterbacks and tight ends of late. The trend toward pass-heavy offenses with tandem attacks in the backfield wasn't merely an aftershock from the lockout. The four highest NFL seasons in rushing yards per carry are 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2008 -- in that order. Much like Marshawn Lynch's post-touchdown Skittles reward, coaches have received positive reinforcement upon assigning specific roles for their cadre of injury susceptible running backs. With the ongoing innovation in play-calling as well as the NFL's illegal contact rules inhibiting pass defenders, quarterbacks are poised to remain in the fantasy spotlight for years to come.

As opposed to last season, there are only a handful of stud running backs under the age-26 first-round barrier for start-up leagues this time around. Staying power has taught us in the past that it was never a bad idea to go quarterback or wide receiver early in a Dynasty draft. It's an even better strategy this year with high-end running backs scarce after the fix half-dozen picks. Released on Twitter over the weekend, here are my top 12 overall Dynasty players:

Note: Age is listed as Years_Months as of September of 2012. The final two columns indicate Rotoworld's rankings from February of 2011 and 2010 respectively. This is the first year that rookies have been included in the rankings prior to the NFL draft.

The best player in the NFL for the past year and a half, Rodgers tops the list for the third consecutive season. Although Brees is close, no QB has a deeper collection of quality weapons to go with one of the league's most creative schemers and play-callers. ... Buoyed by an outstanding offensive coordinator of his own, Newton is coming off the most impressive rookie season in history. It's imperative that the Panthers find a successor to Steve Smith within the next two years. ... Brees' Saints have the top "Offensive Touchdowns-per-Play" rate of the past four years. Although he might lose safety blanket Marques Colston to free agency, mismatches Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles emerged as Brees' two most-targeted options in 2011. ... Stafford ranked third in the NFL in both passing yards and touchdowns in the best age-23 season since Dan Marino's magical 1984. As long as he stays healthy, Calvin Johnson will ensure that he remains an elite fantasy QB for the foreseeable future.

I took to Twitter earlier this week for an informal poll atop tier two: should it be RGIII, Luck, or Brady at No. 5? Spare me the "haven't played a game arguments" for Griffin and Luck. That philosophy leads to egregious mistakes such as ranking Fast Willie Parker over Adrian Peterson, or placing Calvin Johnson below T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the offseason of 2007. Healthy skepticism is encouraged, but there's not a lazier protest than "hasn't played a game." Potential difference-makers must be ranked high right out of the starting gates. It's not just that trade value skyrockets after the first breakout game; it's that they get taken off the table in trade talks immediately thereafter. If you want an untouchable player, you must assign a high value before the rest of your leaguemates.

Luck and RGIII are the most impressive pair of rookies I've seen since Peterson and Johnson entered the league a half-decade ago. I'm not alone in that sentiment. ESPN.com analyst Ross Tucker "can't remember a year" when he was this sold on two quarterbacks in the same draft. ESPN's Trent Dilfer anointed Luck the "most complete football player" he's ever evaluated at any position coming out of college while long-time NFL executive Gil Brandt, the Wikipedia of football knowledge, insists Luck is more prepared for the NFL now than Peyton Manning was in 1998. Matt Williamson of ESPN's Scouts, Inc. labels Luck a "total freak" when noting that his unbelievable athletic ability for his size "isn't even close to his best QB trait."

In weighing Luck vs. Griffin, I'm not wild about the arguments that RGIII has the edge simply due to expected surrounding talent and rushing ability. Change happens too quickly in the NFL for rookie-year supporting cast to be a deciding factor. The same "rushing ability" argument was wielded by Michael Vick supporters ranking him above Peyton Manning back in 2002-2004. Manning won hands down, of course, with no help from his feet. The smart play in Dynasty formats is to come to a strong conviction on which player has a better long-haul career. Supporting cast and rushing ability are secondary factors.

A reasonable argument can be made for any of the trio atop the second tier. I have Brady as my No. 1 QB on a contending roster, and I'm still taking RGIII or Luck. Riverboat gamblers should swing for the fences on Griffin, though there's certainly nothing wrong with going the safer route on Luck.

The rest of the tier: The wild mood swings of fantasy owners leave Vick as a fine "buy" this offseason. He's primed for a bounce-back season. ... Coming off a career year, Eli's value should remain steady behind Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. ... As has become his lot in life, Romo is once again underappreciated. Second only to Rodgers in passer rating, yards per attempt and passing touchdown percentage among active QBs, Romo completed 70 percent of his passes with a 16:2 TD-to-INT ratio and a 117.4 passer rating in the six games after his broken ribs healed last season. ... Ryan is coming off his best statistical season thanks to the emergence of Julio Jones as one of the most dangerous game-breakers in the NFL, but he has as much to prove in 2012 as any QB in the tier. ... Rivers may be too low on this list, but he failed to remain a reliable QB1 last season even withVincent Jackson. Throw in a declining Antonio Gates and a offensive line in major need of repair, and Rivers is less than appetizing for the next year or two. ... With the loss of pass-happy play-caller Bruce Arians, Big Ben will continue to be the poster child for great NFL player, average fantasy QB.

It's fitting that Manning will end up as perhaps the most ballyhooed free agent in NFL history, as he joins Luck, RGIII, and Matt Flynn to form one of the most entertaining quarterback markets we've seen in recent memory. His arm strength is reportedly "way on the ascent" from where it was in December, and history suggests Manning could be back to 100 percent around NFL draft time. Although NFL insiders have preached caution, I fully expect a free agent blitz. Conventional wisdom has the aggressive Dolphins as the favorites. Don't be surprised, though, if Manning follows the lead of head coaching candidates over the past couple of years and uses Miami for leverage on a better deal elsewhere. Manning will be the calling the shots, not the other way around. I've been predicting Arizona since the beginning, and nothing I've seen would convince me otherwise on the eve of free agency.

Locker averaged 8.2 YPA in three rookie-year relief stints. With Kenny Britt returning, Jared Cook emerging late in the season, and Chris Johnson bouncing back to pre-holdout form, the Titans are a sneaky pick for a far more explosive offense the next couple of years. ... Freeman should get a minor boost from the addition of Mario Manningham (or someone of his ilk), but the biggest improvement must come from the quarterback himself. ... I can't believe the Rams won't even entertain the idea of drafting RGIII. With the caveat that Bradford's supporting cast has been a catastrophe, his touchdown rate through two seasons is embarrassingly low. The team's new brass must believe he can stay injury-free and gain effectiveness with better surrounding talent. I'm not quite as confident.

I've been high on Tebow's fantasy potential since he entered the league. In fact, he was actually ranked higher last offseason. His one saving grace as a passer the past two seasons is that no QB in the league takes more chances downfield. Tebow took more than double the shots downfield than Tom Brady did per attempt last year, and his average depth of throw was 3+ yards more than that of the elite NFL quarterbacks. I just can't imagine maintaining week-to-week confidence that Tebow will hold off his backup for the entire season in 2012. Hang on tight for the roller coaster ride. ... Cutler has settled in as an unremarkable QB2 option. ... I must be one of the few unflagging Flacco supporters left. He would be ranked significantly higher if the Ravens added a go-to receiver and ditched predictable schemer and play-caller Cam Cameron.

Welcome to Rotoworld's third annual pre-free agency Dynasty Rankings. The next six months are the prime season for Dynasty start-up drafts. These rankings will necessarily skew substantially younger than they would, say, in the bye-week crunch of early November when owners are scrambling for depth and sacrificing talented reserves for a shot at the championship banner. One of the major keys to success in start-up drafts is to anchor each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) with at least one young nucleus player who can be expected to produce at a high level for the next half-decade.

As we explained early last month in the Top-50 KeeperRanks, the NFL's Robin Hood coaches have been stealing fantasy value from running backs and distributing it among quarterbacks and tight ends of late. The trend toward pass-heavy offenses with tandem attacks in the backfield wasn't merely an aftershock from the lockout. The four highest NFL seasons in rushing yards per carry are 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2008 -- in that order. Much like Marshawn Lynch's post-touchdown Skittles reward, coaches have received positive reinforcement upon assigning specific roles for their cadre of injury susceptible running backs. With the ongoing innovation in play-calling as well as the NFL's illegal contact rules inhibiting pass defenders, quarterbacks are poised to remain in the fantasy spotlight for years to come.

As opposed to last season, there are only a handful of stud running backs under the age-26 first-round barrier for start-up leagues this time around. Staying power has taught us in the past that it was never a bad idea to go quarterback or wide receiver early in a Dynasty draft. It's an even better strategy this year with high-end running backs scarce after the fix half-dozen picks. Released on Twitter over the weekend, here are my top 12 overall Dynasty players:

Note: Age is listed as Years_Months as of September of 2012. The final two columns indicate Rotoworld's rankings from February of 2011 and 2010 respectively. This is the first year that rookies have been included in the rankings prior to the NFL draft.

The best player in the NFL for the past year and a half, Rodgers tops the list for the third consecutive season. Although Brees is close, no QB has a deeper collection of quality weapons to go with one of the league's most creative schemers and play-callers. ... Buoyed by an outstanding offensive coordinator of his own, Newton is coming off the most impressive rookie season in history. It's imperative that the Panthers find a successor to Steve Smith within the next two years. ... Brees' Saints have the top "Offensive Touchdowns-per-Play" rate of the past four years. Although he might lose safety blanket Marques Colston to free agency, mismatches Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles emerged as Brees' two most-targeted options in 2011. ... Stafford ranked third in the NFL in both passing yards and touchdowns in the best age-23 season since Dan Marino's magical 1984. As long as he stays healthy, Calvin Johnson will ensure that he remains an elite fantasy QB for the foreseeable future.

I took to Twitter earlier this week for an informal poll atop tier two: should it be RGIII, Luck, or Brady at No. 5? Spare me the "haven't played a game arguments" for Griffin and Luck. That philosophy leads to egregious mistakes such as ranking Fast Willie Parker over Adrian Peterson, or placing Calvin Johnson below T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the offseason of 2007. Healthy skepticism is encouraged, but there's not a lazier protest than "hasn't played a game." Potential difference-makers must be ranked high right out of the starting gates. It's not just that trade value skyrockets after the first breakout game; it's that they get taken off the table in trade talks immediately thereafter. If you want an untouchable player, you must assign a high value before the rest of your leaguemates.

Luck and RGIII are the most impressive pair of rookies I've seen since Peterson and Johnson entered the league a half-decade ago. I'm not alone in that sentiment. ESPN.com analyst Ross Tucker "can't remember a year" when he was this sold on two quarterbacks in the same draft. ESPN's Trent Dilfer anointed Luck the "most complete football player" he's ever evaluated at any position coming out of college while long-time NFL executive Gil Brandt, the Wikipedia of football knowledge, insists Luck is more prepared for the NFL now than Peyton Manning was in 1998. Matt Williamson of ESPN's Scouts, Inc. labels Luck a "total freak" when noting that his unbelievable athletic ability for his size "isn't even close to his best QB trait."

In weighing Luck vs. Griffin, I'm not wild about the arguments that RGIII has the edge simply due to expected surrounding talent and rushing ability. Change happens too quickly in the NFL for rookie-year supporting cast to be a deciding factor. The same "rushing ability" argument was wielded by Michael Vick supporters ranking him above Peyton Manning back in 2002-2004. Manning won hands down, of course, with no help from his feet. The smart play in Dynasty formats is to come to a strong conviction on which player has a better long-haul career. Supporting cast and rushing ability are secondary factors.

A reasonable argument can be made for any of the trio atop the second tier. I have Brady as my No. 1 QB on a contending roster, and I'm still taking RGIII or Luck. Riverboat gamblers should swing for the fences on Griffin, though there's certainly nothing wrong with going the safer route on Luck.

The rest of the tier: The wild mood swings of fantasy owners leave Vick as a fine "buy" this offseason. He's primed for a bounce-back season. ... Coming off a career year, Eli's value should remain steady behind Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. ... As has become his lot in life, Romo is once again underappreciated. Second only to Rodgers in passer rating, yards per attempt and passing touchdown percentage among active QBs, Romo completed 70 percent of his passes with a 16:2 TD-to-INT ratio and a 117.4 passer rating in the six games after his broken ribs healed last season. ... Ryan is coming off his best statistical season thanks to the emergence of Julio Jones as one of the most dangerous game-breakers in the NFL, but he has as much to prove in 2012 as any QB in the tier. ... Rivers may be too low on this list, but he failed to remain a reliable QB1 last season even withVincent Jackson. Throw in a declining Antonio Gates and a offensive line in major need of repair, and Rivers is less than appetizing for the next year or two. ... With the loss of pass-happy play-caller Bruce Arians, Big Ben will continue to be the poster child for great NFL player, average fantasy QB.

It's fitting that Manning will end up as perhaps the most ballyhooed free agent in NFL history, as he joins Luck, RGIII, and Matt Flynn to form one of the most entertaining quarterback markets we've seen in recent memory. His arm strength is reportedly "way on the ascent" from where it was in December, and history suggests Manning could be back to 100 percent around NFL draft time. Although NFL insiders have preached caution, I fully expect a free agent blitz. Conventional wisdom has the aggressive Dolphins as the favorites. Don't be surprised, though, if Manning follows the lead of head coaching candidates over the past couple of years and uses Miami for leverage on a better deal elsewhere. Manning will be the calling the shots, not the other way around. I've been predicting Arizona since the beginning, and nothing I've seen would convince me otherwise on the eve of free agency.

Locker averaged 8.2 YPA in three rookie-year relief stints. With Kenny Britt returning, Jared Cook emerging late in the season, and Chris Johnson bouncing back to pre-holdout form, the Titans are a sneaky pick for a far more explosive offense the next couple of years. ... Freeman should get a minor boost from the addition of Mario Manningham (or someone of his ilk), but the biggest improvement must come from the quarterback himself. ... I can't believe the Rams won't even entertain the idea of drafting RGIII. With the caveat that Bradford's supporting cast has been a catastrophe, his touchdown rate through two seasons is embarrassingly low. The team's new brass must believe he can stay injury-free and gain effectiveness with better surrounding talent. I'm not quite as confident.

I've been high on Tebow's fantasy potential since he entered the league. In fact, he was actually ranked higher last offseason. His one saving grace as a passer the past two seasons is that no QB in the league takes more chances downfield. Tebow took more than double the shots downfield than Tom Brady did per attempt last year, and his average depth of throw was 3+ yards more than that of the elite NFL quarterbacks. I just can't imagine maintaining week-to-week confidence that Tebow will hold off his backup for the entire season in 2012. Hang on tight for the roller coaster ride. ... Cutler has settled in as an unremarkable QB2 option. ... I must be one of the few unflagging Flacco supporters left. He would be ranked significantly higher if the Ravens added a go-to receiver and ditched predictable schemer and play-caller Cam Cameron.

Dalton's late-season fade is a concern. I could see him outperforming Ponder as an NFL player over the next decade, only to have the more athletically gifted Ponder bypass him as a fantasy performer. At any rate, I think Ponder has the higher upside if things break right for both QBs. ... Flynn is the prototypical West Coast offense system quarterback. I'd place his ceiling at 90 percent of Matt Hasselbeck's career. ... Sanchez finished as the No. 10 fantasy QB in 2011, thanks to an unrepeatable six rushing scores. The Jets no longer maintain total faith in Sanchez as the Sanchize after a clear regression that had his coordinator on jailbreak alert by October. ... Palmer has a few interesting pieces in Oakland, but he's entering his mid-30s while replacing a bright offensive mind with a defensive head coach. ... Tannehill is purely a gamble on upside, as he's only played the position for a year and a half.

Alex Smith answered a lot of doubts with the thrilling comeback victory over the Saints; he didn't answer mine. Smith spent the majority of that game bailing on pressure and arguably made just five quality throws throughout the game (all to Vernon Davis) before crumbling under pressure against the Giants in the NFC Championship game. At best, he's a game manager who can be spot-started as a QB2. At worst, he loses the job to Kaepernick when he reverts to pre-Harbaugh form by November or December. ... Gabbert not only plays scared in the pocket, he also finished at the bottom of all starting QBs with just 48.2 percent of his yardage coming before the catch. I wouldn't hope out much hope for a dramatic turnaround under new coach Mike Mularkey. ... Fitzpatrick and Cassel are placeholders, wasting valuable roster space during all but the bye weeks. ... Kolb is better than he showed in 2011, but he's a poor fit in Arizona and can't stay healthy. ... Mallett will likely have to wait one more year for a trade.

The best of the rest among the rookie QBs. ... Cousins is coming off a fine Combine performance. ... Weeden is viewed as NFL-ready, but it's hard to escape the Chris Weinke comparisons. ... Osweiler is purely a project while Foles is a mid-round NFL pick. ... VY has the talent and past production, but NFL teams aren't going to be won over by his 2011 game tape. His best hope is the opportunity to compete for a starting job, and that's probably a longshot. ... Henne is gaining steam as the third veteran quarterback on the market behind Manning and Flynn. Don't get your hopes up on a fantasy impact. ... Flashing major fantasy potential in small doses last season, Webb is one of the most intriguing roster stashes among the NFL's backups. ... Orton belongs with Fitzpatrick and Cassel as placeholders, only he may be left without a place to hold this year. ... Ditto Campbell and T-Jack. ... McCoy is likely to be replaced by Flynn, RGIII, or a discarded veteran such as Kolb.

Pryor, Taylor, Dixon, and Johnson have the legs to hit the fantasy radar if the opportunity ever comes. ... Hasselbeck won't start for the Titans unless he clearly outplays Locker in training camp. ... Moore will be rewarded for saving Miami from a miserable season by being sent to the bench in favor of the next franchise QB hopeful. ... Yates held his own late in the season, but he's heading back to the bench behind Matt Schaub. ... Coleman, Wilson, and Lindley are mid-to-late round fliers.

A borderline QB1 if Matthew Stafford goes down, Hill is one of the league's premier "handcuff" QBs -- provided he re-signs with the Lions. ... Seattle is high on Portis' potential, but he remains a long-term project. ... Garrard will have to take a backup job coming off back surgery at age 34. ... McNabb is headed down the same path even if he refuses to acknowledge it. He has a better chance of retiring than landing a starting gig. ... Daniel is a restricted free agent with interesting preseason numbers, but it's fair to wonder if he'd have even a prayer of succeeding outside of Sean Payton's offense. ... Wallace and Grossman are purely backups at this stage. ... Clausen is a never-was. ... Ditto Whitehurst.

Chris Wesseling is a senior football editor and Dynasty league analyst for Rotoworld.com. The 2011 NFL season marks his fifth year with Rotoworld and his third year contributing to NBCSports.com. He can be found on Twitter @ChrisWesseling.Email :Chris Wesseling