Toronto, August 29th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 981 Ontario voters, four in ten (40%) say that if an election were held today, they would support the Ontario PCs. Just over a quarter (27%) say they would support the NDP, and a quarter (25%) say they would support the Liberals. Few (6%) say they would support the Green party, while (2%) say they would support another party.

Respondents most likely to support the PCs include those aged 45-54 (47%) or 55-64 (49%), males (49%), earning $40,000-$60,000 (47%) or the most wealthy (47%), the least educated (44%) and those with some college/university (45%), living in Eastern Ontario (48%) or the 905 (45%).

Respondents most likely to support the Liberals include those 34 and younger (33%), females (32%), with a post-graduate degree, and living in Toronto (28%) or Eeastern Ontario (29%).

Respondents most likely to support the NDP include those aged 35-44 (32%), females (31%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (36%) or $80,000-$100,000 (34%), living in Toronto (34%) or North-eastern Ontario (32%).

Liberals and NDP tied for second, well behind PCs

Kathleen Wynne sees approval from fewer than two in ten (18%) and the disapproval of almost three-quarters (73%). Only (9%) say they do not know. The premier’s net favourable score is -55.

Patrick Brown sees the approval of a quarter of Ontarians (25%) and the disapproval of more than a third (34%). Critically for Brown, more than four in ten (41%) say they do not know. Brown’s net favourable score is -9.

Andrea Horwath is the most popular provincial leader with approval of more than a third (35%). Just under a third say they disapprove. However, more than a third (36%) also say they do not know how they feel about Horwath. Her net favourable score is +5.

Best premier: Brown tied with none of the above

More than a quarter (27%) say Patrick Brown would make the best premier of Ontario, while the same proportion (27%) say that none of Horwath, Wynne, or Brown, would make the best premier.

Andrea Horwath (21%) is supported by just over two in ten and Kathleen Wynne is supported by about one sixth (15%). One in ten (10%) say they do not know.

“While Patrick Brown’s PCs see a slight dip in support in August, for the most part his support remains steady, despite perceived controversies.” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Of primary concern for the premier should be her declining support in Toronto, as she now sits third behind both the Tories and the NDP. Without the same massive support in Toronto she received in 2014, her re-election prospects look dim, at best.”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.

according to new polling , whatever support there is for the liberals popular policy ideas . it hasn't had any effect on the overall polling numbers . according to this one there fighting the ndp for second , with pc's way ahead at 40%

the pc and ndp numbers seem to be fairly solid and liberals have failed to gain any traction

You have to factor in the urban/rural split in this. It could be that a lot of the PC support comes from areas they already hold, and the cities become a battle between the NDP and the Liberals, as always.

It leaves our fate in the hands of the suburbs around the cities, in Toronto, the 905 ridings, but there are similar areas in other cities. The report notes that the 905 is one of the areas of high support for the PCs, so it looks awfully hopeful.

You have to factor in the urban/rural split in this. It could be that a lot of the PC support comes from areas they already hold, and the cities become a battle between the NDP and the Liberals, as always.

It leaves our fate in the hands of the suburbs around the cities, in Toronto, the 905 ridings, but there are similar areas in other cities. The report notes that the 905 is one of the areas of high support for the PCs, so it looks awfully hopeful.

the polling has been fairly solid for some time , they've all pretty much said she's finished and that's what they have said for months , yet she's decided to stick around

if the provincial election were held today it likely be similar to the by election in sault ste marie but on a larger scale , a higher than normal % of the vote for the pc's and ndp with liberals coming in 3rd in many ridings and losing most of there seats

We didn't because of the threatened austerity and government cutbacks that the campaign put front and center. The party promised a cold shower, so to speak, to the people with the hangover. Big mistake, as it turned out.

(FULL DISCLOSURE: I was strongly in favor of this approach at the time.)

But disgust with the government has only grown. McGuinty got out of town, so to speak because he sensed doom approaching. When Wynne won a majority, he thought (briefly) that he had misjudged, and he could return to public life, a move of such epic-weasel-ness that his former right-hand man suggested he stay in the background, probably because he has a much better 'front' for the federal party now ...

So disgust with the present gang has only grown and ripened, as they have repeatedly shown us their incompetence. We have to get back on track, as a province, and we have huge common problems. Personally, I don't like the way Brown has laid back ... I think somehow the public should be made aware earlier what policy 'costs', for example, so the public can accumulate a sense of how these things affect their lives. They should know that there's going to be a cold shower involved. That's just my opinion.

But it's probably a smart play. He hasn't given his opponents anything to rally against this time. This isn't going to be like battling Hudak. How can you not be gladdened by the thought that the long dark night of government by wastrels is over?

SUDBURY, Ont. – A trial starts today in Sudbury, Ont., for two provincial Liberals accused of bribery under the Election Act stemming from a 2015 byelection.

Pat Sorbara, who was at the time the Ontario Liberal Party CEO, faces two charges and Gerry Lougheed, a local Liberal fundraiser, faces one charge – they both deny wrongdoing.

They’re accused of offering would-be candidate Andrew Olivier a job or appointment to get him to step aside for Premier Kathleen Wynne’s preferred candidate, then NDP MP Glenn Thibeault.

Wynne ultimately appointed Thibeault as the candidate, he won the byelection and has since been promoted to energy minister.

One of Sorbara’s charges relates to an allegation she promised to get Thibeault “an office or employment” to induce him to become a candidate, which both deny.

Wynne herself is set to testify on Sept. 13.

She has said that she had already decided Olivier would not be the byelection candidate by the time Sorbara and Lougheed spoke to him, therefore anything offered was not in exchange for stepping aside. Rather, Wynne says, she was trying to keep him in the party fold.

When the Election Act charges were laid in November, Sorbara had recently taken a leave of absence as the premier’s deputy chief of staff to become the Ontario Liberal Party CEO and 2018 campaign director. She stepped down after being charged.

An Election Act bribery conviction carries a penalty of up to $5,000. If a judge finds it was broken “knowingly,” the penalty is a fine of up to $25,000 and/or up to two years less a day in jail.

Politicians will be busy debating labour changes — including the push toward a $15 minimum wage — policing reforms, the new pharmacare program, electricity pricing, and other issues.

Premier Kathleen Wynne , who trails the Progressive Conservatives and NDP in polls, insisted Wednesday that boosting her own political fortunes is not a priority this fall.

By Robert BenzieQueen's Park Bureau Chief

Wed., Sept. 6, 2017

Summer is not just over for students — MPPs will be back at their desks too.

With a provincial election exactly nine months away, the penultimate session of the legislature before the campaign promises to be a hot one.

Starting Monday, politicians will be busy debating labour changes — including the push toward a $15 minimum wage — policing reforms, the new pharmacare program, electricity pricing, and a slew of other issues.

Premier Kathleen Wynne, who trails Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath in polls, insisted Wednesday that boosting her own political fortunes is not a priority this fall.

“It’s about whether kids have access to education. It’s about whether seniors are getting the care that they need. It’s about . . . starting in January, every child from 0 to their 25th birthday will have access to free medication,” she said.

Speaking to reporters later in the day at Lawrence Park Collegiate Institute, where she announced plans to revamp the school curriculum to improve student achievement, Wynne heralded the importance of labour laws that will raise the $11.40-an-hour minimum wage to $14 in January and $15 in 2019.

“My job is to implement our plan to make sure that we do everything we can to make this a fair place to live,” the premier said.

At a caucus retreat in Chatham, Horwath said “Kathleen Wynne has let people down — she’s been showing people that she’s in it for herself and her party.”

Horwath also took a swipe at the Tories, predicting that if they win the next election they would cut and privatize as their predecessors at Queen’s Park and in Ottawa have done.

“With Brown offering only more cuts, only New Democrats have a plan to improve public services and put people at the heart of government,” she said.

Tory deputy leader Steve Clark said his party “will be hitting the ground running in the legislature next week, holding the government accountable for Ontario’s hydro crisis, cuts to front-line health care services, and the loss of good-paying manufacturing jobs.”

But Clark warned that “Premier Wynne will be absent or distracted, preparing to testify in a court trial involving her most senior operatives.”

That’s a reference to the Sudbury byelection bribery trial beginning Thursday. Wynne will testify next Wednesday.

Her former deputy chief of staff, Patricia Sorbara, and Sudbury Liberal activist Gerry Lougheed face Elections Act charges related to a February 2005 byelection. They deny any wrongdoing.

Next Monday in Toronto, a separate trial of two top aides to former premier Dalton McGuinty will begin in an Old City Hall courtroom.

David Livingston, McGuinty’s last chief of staff in 2013, and deputy chief Laura Miller are accused of breach of trust, mischief in relation to data, and misuse of a computer system. They maintain they did nothing wrong.

McGuinty, who co-operated with police in that probe, was not under investigation.

I don't have much faith in Ontario's criminal courts ... particularly when dealing with those with political influence. We always have the lack of a murder trial for the ex-Attorney General of the province, Michael Bryant. That's pretty contemptible.

After all, Miller and Livingstone committed their alleged crimes for the benefit of the allegedly Liberal party. Why should they get worse treatment that someone who used his car to kill somebody?

Except this is a province that took a case into two years of hearings on a man charged with sexual harrassment -- on twitter. Before that, who knew that a sexual assault could take place without the perp even being in the presence of the alleged victim?

I guess inconsistent, politically motivated standards are better than no standards at all.

Pat Sorbara, who was at the time the Ontario Liberal Party CEO, and Gerry Lougheed, a local Liberal fundraiser are accused under the Election Act of offering would-be candidate Andrew Olivier a job or appointment to get him to step aside for Thibeault, who was Wynne’s preferred candidate in a 2015 byelection in Sudbury, Ont.

Sorbara is also facing a second charge, in relation to an alleged offer made to Thibeault to get him to become the candidate.

In addition to the paid positions for two of his staffers, Thibeault wanted income replacement for himself and full support of the Ontario Liberals, federal prosecutor David McKercher said in his opening statement.

Thibeault has previously denied he sought anything that would be seen as a bribe in exchange for running and is not charged with any offences.

Both Sorbara and Lougheed pleaded not guilty Thursday.

Their lawyers say the Crown’s allegations wrongly use the term “candidate” interchangeably with “party nominee” and only candidacy processes are governed by the Election Act.

“The process that took place and whatever may have occurred during those conversations...is not in relation to a candidate in the byelection but rather exclusively in relation to the Liberal nominee in that byelection,” said Sorbara’s lawyer, Brian Greenspan.

“(Thibeault) was going to be appointed, as was her (Wynne’s) right under the Liberal constitution,” said Lougheed’s lawyer, Michael Lacy. “There was never going to be a contested nomination process in this riding for that byelection. Mr. Olivier’s wishful thinking in that regard does not transform him into a candidate for the purpose of the Ontario Election Act.”

The Liberals had held the Sudbury riding for nearly two decades before losing it in the 2014 general election to the NDP, but the New Democrat MPP stepped down months later for health reasons.

“The premier was determined to win the Sudbury seat back in the byelection,” McKercher said.

She didn’t think Olivier, the party’s candidate in the riding in the recent general election, was the best chance for winning, instead preferring Thibeault, he said.

“She was willing to appoint him if necessary, but that was not her preferred course. Mr. Thibeault himself did not want an appointment,” and didn’t think he’d win open nomination against Olivier, McKercher said.

The Crown alleges that is the context in which Sorbara and Lougheed spoke to Olivier and offered him a job or appointment.

Because Olivier is quadriplegic he records important conversations as a form of note taking and previously posted that audio to YouTube.

Court heard Thursday that another conversation between Olivier and Sorbara was very recently discovered on Olivier’s phone, predating the other two chats and predating Wynne and Thibeault’s first meeting.

“You are the past candidate but you’re not the current candidate yet,” Sorbara cautions near the end of the call.

Wynne ultimately appointed Thibeault as the candidate, he won the byelection and has since been promoted to energy minister.

The premier herself is set to testify on Wednesday.

She has said that she had already decided Olivier would not be the byelection candidate by the time Sorbara and Lougheed spoke to him, therefore anything offered was not in exchange for stepping aside. Rather, Wynne says, she was trying to keep him in the party fold.

An Election Act bribery conviction carries a penalty of up to $5,000. If a judge finds it was broken “knowingly,” the penalty is a fine of up to $25,000 and/or up to two years less a day in jail.

It couldn't be a bribe because the premier had already decided against his candidacy?

But the whistleblower didn't know that. He thought he was being bribed, and no party official told him that the 'bribe' was a consolation prize.

It sounds like 'Hillary' defense.

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We see here. too, how our MPs are really selected. They don't represent the people of Sudbury. It's more the case that they "sell" the Liberal Party to the people of Sudbury. The MPs are more like employees of the party. That's what turns what looks like an exercise in democracy into a charade.

TORONTO — A long-awaited and politically sensitive criminal trial involving allegations of document destruction in the Ontario premier’s office is finally set to start Monday with the defence expected to ask for an adjournment.

A lawyer for one of former premier Dalton McGuinty’s two top aides — each charged with breach of trust, mischief and unlawful use of a computer — says the request stems from information the prosecution only gave the defence recently.

“My client wants to get on with the trial,” said lawyer Brian Gover, who represents David Livingston, McGuinty’s former chief of staff. “But we need to ensure that we are prepared as well.”

Police charged Livingston and his deputy, Laura Miller, in December 2015 in connection with the deletion of emails about the Liberals’ decision to cancel two gas plants just before the 2011 provincial election. Although McGuinty and his Liberals eked out re-election, the decision sparked a political firestorm in light of the estimated $1.1 billion the cancellation cost taxpayers.

According to court documents, Livingston and Miller hired her partner, a computer expert under contract to the Liberals, to wipe clean about 20 hard drives in the premier’s office in 2013. Both have steadfastly denied any wrongdoing.

“We have maintained from the outset that these are baseless allegations,” Gover said.

The Liberals initially refused to give a legislature committee documents related to the cancelled gas plants in Oakville and Mississauga, sparking a contempt debate that eventually saw McGuinty resign as premier under a cloud in October 2012. He was never the target of the investigation and is reported to have co-operated with the police probe.

However, he has stood by the cancellation decision, although he expressed regret at the steep cost.

The trial, slated to last six weeks, comes ahead of a provincial election — set to take place on June 7, 2018 — in which his successor, Premier Kathleen Wynne, faces a tough battle to stay in office.

Wynne has repeatedly apologized for the gas-plants scandal that has provided reams of fodder for a gleeful opposition, which has blasted the cancellations as a costly “Liberal seat-saver campaign.”

Monday’s motion for a week-long adjournment is related among other things to an amended expert report from the prosecution. The defence is pondering whether it needs to retain its own expert given the information was only disclosed a few weeks ago.

About 20 witnesses are expected to testify at the Ontario court trial, which is currently scheduled to wrap up in November and expected to be highly technical in parts. To avoid any conflicts of interest, the trial in Ontario court is being prosecuted by federal rather than provincial Crown lawyers.

Miller has raised close to $80,000 for her defence through a crowdsourcing website. McGuinty’s former deputy chief of staff, who went to work with the British Columbia Liberal party, previously complained that police investigators were biased against her.

Her lawyer, Scott Hutchison, did not respond to a request for comment.

SUDBURY, Ont. – Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne denied in court Wednesday that she promised a New Democrat MP a cabinet position to get him to leave his party and run for the provincial Liberals.

The premier is a witness in the trial of two Liberals who are charged with bribery under the Election Act over allegations they offered a would-be candidate a job or appointment to get him to step aside for NDP MP Glenn Thibeault, who was Wynne’s preferred candidate in a 2015 byelection.

Wynne herself is not facing charges and her lawyers sent Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown a letter Wednesday demanding he retract comments they say suggest the premier is standing trial.

Court heard that a man who let the premier’s staff know that Thibeault might be interested in switching parties relayed to them concerns he said Thibeault had “before jumping.”

“Premier said he could only get in cabinet after a process and at next shuffle at a date TBD,” the man texted Pat Sorbara, the premier’s deputy chief of staff at the time and one of the two Liberals on trial.

Sorbara and other top staff in the premier’s office wrote in a subsequent email chain that “demands for a cabinet position” were worrying.

Wynne testified that the text doesn’t reflect her conversations with Thibeault.

She prefers giving caucus members time to learn the system rather than immediately putting them in cabinet, she testified.

“I made it clear to Glenn that that was my belief and that was my practice,” Wynne said, adding she first broached the cabinet issue and not Thibeault.

“I actually put that forward because I wanted it to be very clear and I didn’t want there to be any misunderstanding about where I was coming from.”

Thibeault, who was promoted to energy minister in June 2016, has previously denied he sought anything that would be seen as a bribe in exchange for running and is not charged with any offences.

Sorbara, who was also Liberal campaign director, and Gerry Lougheed, a local Liberal organizer, have both pleaded not guilty.

They’re accused of offering would-be candidate Andrew Olivier a job or appointment to get him to step aside for Thibeault.

Wynne testified that when she, Lougheed and Sorbara each spoke to Olivier, she had decided Thibeault would be the candidate. She had hoped Olivier would step aside so Thibeault could win an uncontested nomination, in order to present a unified party, she said.

The final decision and announcement of Thibeault’s appointment came a few days after those conversations, court heard, but Wynne said her mind was already made up.

“It was very clear to (Olivier) I was prepared to go ahead and appoint, and that was the track that we were on,” she said.

Olivier testified last week he still thought at that point he could change the premier’s mind and run in an open nomination contest. Olivier had been the Liberal candidate in Sudbury in the 2014 general election, but lost to the NDP

Wynne testified that she thought the Liberals should have held onto the riding, since they had held it for nearly two decades at that point. That led her to believe that Olivier was not as strong a candidate as she had thought and wouldn’t be the best candidate for a byelection, Wynne said.

The seat became available when the New Democrat member resigned five months after the general election. When the premier heard that Thibeault was interested in running for the provincial Liberals she thought it was “an intriguing idea,” she said.

Once Thibeault committed to running for the Liberals, Wynne said she left the next steps up to Sorbara.

Sorbara is also facing a second charge, in relation to an allegation she arranged for paid jobs on the byelection campaign for two of Thibeault’s constituency staff, at his request.

Wynne said she was aware Thibeault was concerned about what would happen with his staff.

wynne is finally testifying at the long awaited Sudbury bribery trial , not sure if anything is going to come out or not .

but you have to wonder at what point does wynne realise its over ?

is it when she's testifying at a bribery trial ?

at least 5 of her mpp's aren't even going to run again , not counting the 3 who have left mid term

her personal approval ratings are dismal and some polls have the liberals in 3rd

she lost by elections in 2 of the liberals previously safest seats , scarborough rogue river and sault ste marie

I can't honeslty believe her own caucus hasn't revolted by now and tried to toss her out , maybe when she comes back from Sudbury she'll find the caucus door locked ? who knows

I think she knows. If she runs a campaign where she's kept isolated from the crowds, you can bet she not only knows, but she is consciously building a shit-storm for Patrick Brown to deal with -- like taking away the $15/hr minimum wage.

But the other side can always make a mistake.

As for her caucus ... are they better off with her or without her? They are mostly meaningless hangers-on. If you were a 30-something lawyer looking for a steady gig in politics, would you be looking at the Liberals or the Progressive Conservatives right now? Most people want to be in on these things at the start, not at the end. These are the culls of the pretty dim group that was left when Dalton left town. No more Dwight McDonalds, no more Peppitellos, no more Jim Bradleys. Put it this way: these are the ones that were outshone by George Smitherman.

This is so-oo preposterous that it resembles a Monty Python skit. One with a lot of winking and ... nudge, nudge ... nudging.

The truth is clear. The party wasn't going to have some friggin' quadriplegic eating in their Parliamentary cafeteria ... or needing someone to uncork his rubber 'bladder' where some of his body wastes go. Nope, that's not who Liberals are ...

Does anyone imagine that someone like Thibault can make a transition from one level of government to another, from one party to another, and to a cabinet post as well, without there being some negotiations? There was even a payment made to Thibault to replace income he lost between the end of one gig and the start of the other

Quote:

The Ontario Liberals paid Energy Minister Glenn Thibeault $3,500 when he ran for the party in a by-election in Sudbury last year.

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