Numbers On The Boards: Which Team Is In Freshest Shape In The NBA Playoffs?

Donald Sterling controversy aside, Round 1 of the NBA playoffs has been a joy so far.

Four series are all locked at 2-2 with Dallas and Spurs perhaps becoming the fifth later tonight. The two 3-1 series have also featured some exhilarating finishes, and the unlucky Bulls and Rockets could easily be up 3-1 at this point. Even the destined-to-be-forgotten Miami-Charlotte series has been closer than the 3-0 scoreline suggests with Al Jefferson playing some heroic one-legged basketball and MKG finally busting out.

These high intensity games are physically punishing the players, and fatigue will surely become a factor as the playoffs progress. History has shown this, with teams that have spread their workload throughout their roster during the regular season generally performing better deep in the playoffs.

So, it’s worth looking at which teams have the freshest legs right now. Which teams are well poised to make a postseason run in the upcoming months? And from which teams can we expect an energy slump? The graph below shows the percentage workload of the five most used players in the regular season for each playoff team.

LaMarcus is king of the NBA world right now, after going H.A.M. down in Houston, hitting one mid-range J after another, and continuing his solid production back home in Portland. But he and his teammates shouldn’t get too far ahead of themselves: it turns out, their five most used players have collectively logged the most minutes of any team during the season – some 69.4% of all available minutes. Can they keep up the incredible energy they’ve shown so far against Houston? Time will tell, but I wouldn’t count on it.

At the other end of the scale, the Spurs seem to be in a great position. Coach of the Year Pop has masterfully kept all his players under a 30 minutes per game average, with Belinelli somehow the second most used player. This isn’t great for fantasy team owners, but it’s a reason why we should expect another run to the Western Conference Finals from the team. Yes, I am fully aware they are down 2-1 against Dallas at the moment. But the Spurs are the better team and should get it together tonight – they’ve played like trash and are one Vinsanity shot away from leading 2-1.

The Grizzlies and OKC also are quite fresh, although Durant leads the league in regular season minutes played, at 79% of all available minutes. Tony Allen, who has only played 32%, has shown an amazing tenacity at guarding KD so far this series, and his extra fresh legs in this matchup are already helping sway the series the Grizzlies’ way. The victors will play the winner of Clippers-Warriors (yet another entertaining and evenly matched series), who are both around average in the freshness stakes.

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In the East, the Pacers have the least fresh main five. This has already been well documented, as every man and his dog have thrown around theories as to their recent struggles. Unfortunately, their bench additions haven’t been able to help as much as Larry Bird would have hoped, and they are stuck in a difficult situation: further grind their stars into the ground, or play their underachieving bench. If they could squeeze past Atlanta, however, they would likely meet the Wizards in the next round, who have also played their starters heavy minutes. What a grind that series would be.

This all bodes very well for the Heat, who surely have the upper hand in the East. Wade has been rested often throughout the year, and is seemingly primed for a strong postseason run. LeBron has played only 73% of the available minutes this season, sixth highest among remaining players in the playoffs, whereas in the past he has usually led this category. Throw in the many days of rest that will follow their likely 4-0 series sweep of Charlotte, and with each passing day the Heat winning the East seems ever more likely…

That said, the Nets are the freshest in the conference, and could theoretically pose problems for the Heat in round 2. After a slow start this season, their veterans have finally got it together and they are undefeated against the Heat from four regular season games. Unfortunately, KG already looks worn down by these youthful Raptors, despite him having only played 28% of minutes this season.

They really need to find some consistency down low – Blatche is hit and miss, Garnett is giving them nothing, and Plumlee is still just a rookie. They’ve had some success with Paul Pierce at PF during the regular season – but this is the playoffs, and that is most likely not getting it done in a bruising 7-game battle. At this point in time, I can’t see the Nets beating the Raptors, let alone the Heat.

And that’s the thing: the freshness of teams is no guarantee of success. It’s merely an extra piece to consider in a complicated and interwoven tapestry of potential playoff success. That’s why you have to love the NBA. There are so many angles to contemplate.

And when they all come together like they have here in this first round, there’s no better entertainment in the world.

that sterling shit is no excuse for losing. its not like what he said was shocking, especially to players, i’m sure they deal with racial shit on a daily basis, and i’m sure the players already knew what kind of owner was signing their checks.
the clips are going to WCF, i’d bet on that.

i hate that the nets/raptors series is probably the dullest of them all.
i think the heat are the best looking team so far i guess, i dont wanna get gassed by the blazers. and blake griffin……..i’m impressed by what he’s doing on the court, i truly didnt think he had that in him but he is abusing david lee.

“Yes, I am fully aware they are down 2-1 against Dallas at the moment. But the Spurs are the better team and should get it together tonight – they’ve played like trash and are one Vinsanity shot away from leading 2-1.”

And the unlucky Bulls and Rockets could easily be up 3-1 at this point

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Rockets yes, but not the Bulls. Everyone overrated Chicago’s defense and underrated Washington’s offense. Chicago’s lucky they ain’t getting sweeped. Washington is one coach away from a 50 win season, in a division that plays the Heat multiple times a year.

Come on man. I know Bulls flaws are coming to haunt them and your boys on the come up but those first two games could have gone either way. Both teams gagged big leads away, especially when it came to crunch time in the case of the Bulls. Only 1 game (game 4) so far has been a blow out.

Game 2 was the Wizards almost coughing up the W at the last moment. It shouldn’t have gone into overtime. Yall had the game lost. The one game the Bulls could’ve had was game 1 because Wall and Beal shot terrible, but game 2 and 4 were deserved wins. Yall can argue tied at 2-2, but Bulls up 3-1? Nah.

I’m just saying this ain’t the Bobcats/Heat. Bulls up 10 late in game 2 and then Beal just went off. Add in terrible coaching by Thibs late and Kirk choking on the FT. I’m not saying it would be a pretty 3-1 or even that the Wiz didn’t earn those W, but Bulls had their chances. Which actually makes this series even more painful to watch.

Yeah, as Smitty said – Bulls wouldn’t deserve to be up 3-1…but they weren’t too far off it. Wizards have definitely been better, especially in the big moments…but my point is, many of these games were changed by one or two key plays.

Noah has averaged not too far off his season averages this series…still, a little disappointing, as we all hoped he’d step it up a little here. He definitely could have used more help on offense from the hack Boozer, Hinrich and Butler.