Proffitt: From Michigan to Tampa

By Waldo Proffitt

Published: Saturday, March 3, 2012 at 1:00 a.m.

Last Modified: Friday, March 2, 2012 at 5:13 p.m.

A couple of weeks ago I promised I would not write another column on the Republican presidential primaries for the rest of the month (February). I kept that promise — but not quite in the way I intended.

As it turned out, I did not write another column on ANY topic for the rest of the month because my wife went to Sarasota Memorial Hospital for a week and to the Pines Rehabilitation Center for another week and I spent several hours each day visiting her.

She is now home, doing nicely, and I have found a few hours for columnizing. And just in time because GOP primaries were held Tuesday in Arizona and Michigan, with results that deserve comment. At least Michigan does.

Mitt Romney won in Arizona handily and got all of the state's 29 convention delegates, but Michigan, Romney's home state, was basically a tie. He won the popular vote over Rick Santorum with a nearly respectable 3 percent margin, but the convention delegate count was almost a tie at 16 to 14. Each of the state's 14 congressional districts elected two convention delegates, with two more chosen statewide. The districts split 7-7; Romney got the two at-large delegates. I stayed up late Tuesday night watching the television returns, but it was not until Wednesday morning that the delegate total got sorted out.

The Michigan result was a striking demonstration that the way the popular vote gets translated into delegates varies from state to state — a fact I dare say will be remembered in reporting the upcoming spate of primaries.

The Santorum campaign is claiming the Michigan result was a setback for Romney, and it makes a good case, which must be tempered a bit by the fact that the Michigan rules allowed Democrats and independents to vote in the Republican primary. A large number of Democrats took advantage of the opportunity and voted, according to one early count, almost three-to-one for Santorum, who had only about half as much money as Romney to spend in Michigan.

All things considered, the Michigan outcome cannot be called an impressive showing by Romney, and will not weigh heavily in the thinking of Republican voters who go to the polls three days from now in 10 states, including Ohio, which resembles Michigan in many respects and is the Super Tuesday state drawing the most attention from the candidates.

There are quite a few observers who are saying that the real winner in Michigan was President Obama, who has no primary opponent and is able to appear presidential just by doing his regular job. The same will be true in Ohio and the other nine states. Which brings up the question whether this extended primary season has become just a circular firing squad.

ABC News Political Director Amy Walter points out the Romney campaign's greatest strength has been eviscerating opponents. "They figure out what the weakness is of their top opponent, they go in there, spend a lot of money and do a lot of negative ads, and exploit whatever that weakness is. The problem with that is they don't ever build themselves up."

The Obama campaign benefits also from an improving economy. As Yahoo! News' David Chalian points out, that not only helps the president but also steals the thunder from Romney's main campaign theme. "If Mitt Romney is Mr. Fix It on the economy, but the guy who's sitting in the Oval Office is actually fixing the economy right now, then where does Mitt Romney go from there?"

Good question. The answer is he and all the remaining candidates go to a long string of Tuesdays stretching into the summer and which may or may not produce the 1,144 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. As of now, Romney has 150 delegates; Santorum has 85. Super Tuesday will produce 466 delegates who will be divided among four candidates. Newt Gingrich or Ron Paul, or both, may well drop out after Super Tuesday. They will certainly face high obstacles in raising money to compete in a series of Tuesdays, most of them yielding a few dozen delegates. The remaining big states, California and New York, do not vote until fairly late.

I have made a couple of predictions lately which have come out pretty well, so I will make another: The Republican presidential candidate will not be decided before the national convention in late August.

That may be wishful thinking because the convention will be in Tampa, and will be a big, big local story. I am confident this newspaper will treat it like one. And it will be great fun for both reporters and readers.

Proffitt is the former editor of the Herald-Tribune. Email: Waldo_Proffitt@yahoo.com

<p>A couple of weeks ago I promised I would not write another column on the Republican presidential primaries for the rest of the month (February). I kept that promise — but not quite in the way I intended. </p><p>As it turned out, I did not write another column on ANY topic for the rest of the month because my wife went to Sarasota Memorial Hospital for a week and to the Pines Rehabilitation Center for another week and I spent several hours each day visiting her.</p><p>She is now home, doing nicely, and I have found a few hours for columnizing. And just in time because GOP primaries were held Tuesday in Arizona and Michigan, with results that deserve comment. At least Michigan does.</p><p>Mitt Romney won in Arizona handily and got all of the state's 29 convention delegates, but Michigan, Romney's home state, was basically a tie. He won the popular vote over Rick Santorum with a nearly respectable 3 percent margin, but the convention delegate count was almost a tie at 16 to 14. Each of the state's 14 congressional districts elected two convention delegates, with two more chosen statewide. The districts split 7-7; Romney got the two at-large delegates. I stayed up late Tuesday night watching the television returns, but it was not until Wednesday morning that the delegate total got sorted out. </p><p>The Michigan result was a striking demonstration that the way the popular vote gets translated into delegates varies from state to state — a fact I dare say will be remembered in reporting the upcoming spate of primaries.</p><p>The Santorum campaign is claiming the Michigan result was a setback for Romney, and it makes a good case, which must be tempered a bit by the fact that the Michigan rules allowed Democrats and independents to vote in the Republican primary. A large number of Democrats took advantage of the opportunity and voted, according to one early count, almost three-to-one for Santorum, who had only about half as much money as Romney to spend in Michigan.</p><p>All things considered, the Michigan outcome cannot be called an impressive showing by Romney, and will not weigh heavily in the thinking of Republican voters who go to the polls three days from now in 10 states, including Ohio, which resembles Michigan in many respects and is the Super Tuesday state drawing the most attention from the candidates. </p><p>There are quite a few observers who are saying that the real winner in Michigan was President Obama, who has no primary opponent and is able to appear presidential just by doing his regular job. The same will be true in Ohio and the other nine states. Which brings up the question whether this extended primary season has become just a circular firing squad.</p><p>ABC News Political Director Amy Walter points out the Romney campaign's greatest strength has been eviscerating opponents. "They figure out what the weakness is of their top opponent, they go in there, spend a lot of money and do a lot of negative ads, and exploit whatever that weakness is. The problem with that is they don't ever build themselves up."</p><p>The Obama campaign benefits also from an improving economy. As Yahoo! News' David Chalian points out, that not only helps the president but also steals the thunder from Romney's main campaign theme. "If Mitt Romney is Mr. Fix It on the economy, but the guy who's sitting in the Oval Office is actually fixing the economy right now, then where does Mitt Romney go from there?"</p><p>Good question. The answer is he and all the remaining candidates go to a long string of Tuesdays stretching into the summer and which may or may not produce the 1,144 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. As of now, Romney has 150 delegates; Santorum has 85. Super Tuesday will produce 466 delegates who will be divided among four candidates. Newt Gingrich or Ron Paul, or both, may well drop out after Super Tuesday. They will certainly face high obstacles in raising money to compete in a series of Tuesdays, most of them yielding a few dozen delegates. The remaining big states, California and New York, do not vote until fairly late.</p><p>I have made a couple of predictions lately which have come out pretty well, so I will make another: The Republican presidential candidate will not be decided before the national convention in late August.</p><p>That may be wishful thinking because the convention will be in Tampa, and will be a big, big local story. I am confident this newspaper will treat it like one. And it will be great fun for both reporters and readers.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Proffitt is the former editor of the Herald-Tribune. Email: Waldo_Proffitt@yahoo.com</p>