Hopes rose this week of a revival for Russia’s equity capital markets when the US Treasury extended a key sanctions licence until October, allowing aluminium conglomerate EN+ to continue with a plan that would remove sanctions on the company.

Despite worries that Russian investors are pulling away from London as the UK looks to pressure allies of the country's president Vladimir Putin, Tom Tugendhat, the chairman of the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, this week told GlobalCapital that preserving the rule of law in the UK and making sure markets are “clean and honest” is more important than attracting Russian capital to London.

Euroclear’s refusal to continue settling Rusal trades when US sanctions were slapped on the company on April 6 may have saved many US bond investors from crystallising crippling losses. If the US plans further rounds of similar punishments, it should turn that happy accident into a permanent feature of the sanctions process.

The gloom over Russian capital markets was lifted a little this week as the US Treasury softened its stance towards sanctioned aluminium behemoth Rusal, giving hope to markets that the announcement of new sanctions against Russia at the beginning of April may not have been a knockout blow, write Sam Kerr, Francesca Young and Mike Turner.

The US Treasury, through the Office of Foreign Assets Control, has issued a new licence to US holders of debt or equity in EN+, Rusal and Gaz Group. It gives US persons until June 6 to divest their holdings in these companies, instead of the original deadline of May 7.

News last Friday from the London Stock Exchange (LSE) that Oleg Deripaska is set to give up his control of Rusal by removing his majority stake in EN+ (Rusal’s parent) is the best possible outcome at this point for the US, for Russia, and for investors.

Mining company Polymetal has converted an existing $80m bilateral credit facility with ING into a sustainability-linked loan. It is the first loan market activity from Russia since the US announced a fresh round of sanctions against some of the country’s oligarchs.

With the shock of the latest round of Russian sanctions receding a little, EM investors are already seeking out the opportunities that last week’s volatility created. Even one holder of the sanctioned and problematic Rusal debt said he has increased his exposure to Sberbank.

The CEEMEA bond market has proved resilient to the asset price crippling effects of the latest US sanctions against Russia with little evidence contagion. A steady stream of new issues this week confirmed that it is business as usual in the bond markets.

Kazmunaygas’ (KMG) $3.25bn bond on Tuesday proved to be a beneficiary of the latest round of US sanctions against Russia sanctions, as investors sought a new oil play away from the volatility surrounding assets from the proscribed state.

The Trump administration’s decision not to announce new sanctions against Russia on Monday is unlikely to be the end of the sanctions saga, with designations having been proven to be the US's most effective weapon against Russia.

The US Treasury’s targeting of Rusal in its latest round of sanctions was far from the random hit that investors are claiming. The US has demonstrated its power over the dollar-based financial system — and it has no need to do further damage.

The IPO of IBS IT, a Russian technology company, was postponed on Friday due to “increased market volatility” driven primarily by US-led sanctions against Russia. According to Nikki Haley, US ambassador to the UN, more might be coming.

With little clarity on the full scope of the new round of sanctions on Russia from the US Office of Foreign Assets Control’s (OFAC), service providers have been quick to cut ties with the seven sanctioned oligarchs and their related entities for risk of violating new rules on facilitating business with designated individuals or entities.

In the past, some investors were able to draw a line dividing the Russian businesses in which they parked their cash from Vladimir Putin’s government, despite what some have called a “feudal” hierarchy in the country. Last week’s US sanctions obliterated that line.

The decision by the US Treasury last week to designate a number of Russian oligarchs and companies as sanctioned entities, in an effort to curb the country’s “worldwide malign activity”, has transformed investor sentiment and led to buyers fleeing Russia across debt and equities, write Sam Kerr and Francesca Young.

DCM bankers have seen an evaporation of their Russian bond business this week reminiscent of 2014 when US and EU financial sanctions were first put in place against the country. Fears of further sanctions have meant that the whole Russian bond market is under scrutiny, and pressure.

Rusal bondholders are in a pickle. They have been told by the US Treasury that they have 60 days to dump the sanctioned Russian company’s bonds, but trading has halted, leaving them stuck with the debt. Investors are lost as to how to value the bonds in their portfolios and are scrambling to work out how they can legally continue to hold and mark them.

The sell-off in Russian bonds is battering emerging markets investors, who are seeing the biggest spread widening since sanctions were first imposed on the country in 2014. Not only have the bonds of freshly sanctioned Rusal tanked but other Russian companies are selling off as investors fear they may be next, and the rot is starting to spread to the wider central and eastern Europe region as well.

Equity investor sentiment on Russia has been upended in the space of a weekend after the shock release from the US Treasury on Friday imposing a fresh set of sanctions on Russia which has torpedoed the fortunes of aluminium producer EN+ and its owner Oleg Deripaska.

09 Apr 2018

Comment

The US Treasury’s targeting of Rusal in its latest round of sanctions was far from the random hit that investors are claiming. The US has demonstrated its power over the dollar-based financial system — and it has no need to do further damage.

The Trump administration’s decision not to announce new sanctions against Russia on Monday is unlikely to be the end of the sanctions saga, with designations having been proven to be the US's most effective weapon against Russia.

In the past, some investors were able to draw a line dividing the Russian businesses in which they parked their cash from Vladimir Putin’s government, despite what some have called a “feudal” hierarchy in the country. Last week’s US sanctions obliterated that line.