Lifting the Offer: Bitcoin trading analysis for the week of July 20th, 2015

It’s been a tumultuous July in both the bitcoin and financial markets. Traders resonded to the news of a Greek bailout with a sell off that had the price of bitcoin down for the week. Over the last six months, global market events have impacted the price of bitcoin more than ever. This growing correlation is a positive as bitcoin continues to establish itself as an investable asset class.

Bitcoin Price Recap

Last Monday, traders reacted swiftly to a proposed Greek bailout agreement with a dramatic sell off driving the price down 10%. The bitcoin price continued to trend down throughout the first half of the week after the market digested the bailout agreement struck between Greece and the European Union. After the bailout agreement was actually passed on Wednesday 7/15, by the Greek Parliament, the bitcoin market reacted with an approximate 5% sell off.

Bitcoin has notoriously been an isolated asset class with larger price movements triggered primarily by Bitcoin-specific events and developments. Over the course of the last six months, the market has been correlating with other global market events which are impacting the price of bitcoin more than before. As correlation builds between the price of bitcoin and other asset classes, we should see larger macro news have a more profound impact.

Bitcoin Trading Week Ahead

Traders should anticipate a less volatile week ahead as analysts look to rebuild their pricing schemes and look for fresh market influencers. It’s clear that market participants who are able to “price in” other potential factors weighing on bitcoin will have better pricing indicators. The price appears to have found support at $271 with resistance set at $280. Should support break at $271, the market could head towards early July levels of $250-$253.

This Week in Bitcoin’s (Limited) History

Released every Monday, Lifting the Offer provides market and price analysis to prepare bitcoin traders for the week ahead. Check out the full LTO archive.

Bobby Cho is the Director of the Institutional Client Group at itBit. Previously, Bobby was Vice President of Trading at SecondMarket specializing in trading bitcoin and illiquid asset-backed securities.

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