The St. Louis Cardinals won 86 games in 2016 and missed out on playing in the National League Wild Card Game by one win. The Cardinals have won 86 or more games each the last nine years and have won at least 83 games for 16 of the past 17 baseball seasons. Expectation is usually that the Cardinals will win a lot of games every year and because of that, not as much attention has been paid to the deficiencies of their previous season. A team that wins 86 games should have little to complain about and would have even less if they managed to play a game of postseason. However, the 2016 Cardinals were not a typical St. Louis team. They played alarmingly poor defense and had a down season within their group of pitchers, mostly their starters. Their collective 4.08 ERA was helped by their bullpen, with relievers like Seung hwan Oh dominating while on the mound. You think of the Cardinals and their track record tells you they will have solid pitching, great defense and will play completely fundamentally sound baseball. That was not the case last season, as they ranked among the worst teams defensively and were more of a home run or nothing team than they have ever been. The latter does have more to do with the changes of the plate approach throughout the game of baseball. The Cardinals signed free agent center fielder Dexter Fowler to a five year contract which will likely help out their defense. Fowler rated as a below average defender in 2015, but rated very high as a defensive player last year after learning to play further back than he used to in center field. Fowler was an All Star last season, but did play in just 125 regular season games with an OPS that was as high as it has been since 2012. The Cardinals also signed reliever Brett Cecil to a four year contract which seemed to provide information to other teams on how the market had risen. Left hand reliever Mike Dunn then went to the Colorado Rockies for three years and Marc Rzepczynski received a two year deal from the Seattle Mariners. Unfortunately, other teams collectively (but individually) decided that they were not going to commit that type of terms to a lefty specialist which impacted the rest of the crop of left handed relievers.The Cardinals pinned a lot of hope on right hander Alex Reyes. The now 22 year-old appeared in 12 games for St. Louis last season, making five starts. He struck out 52 batters in 46 innings and pitched to a 1.57 earned run average. Reyes was to be a starting pitcher in 2017 and could have very easily been the Cardinals second starter behind ace Carlos Martinez. Unfortunately, the Cardinals will have to play the 2017 season without Reyes who just recently underwent Tommy John surgery. This marks the Cardinals' second consecutive season losing a starting pitcher to TJ. Lance Lynn missed the 2016 season, though he expects to be part of the rotation this year coming opening day. Martinez had his second straight solid season in 2016, winning 16 games and striking out 174 batters in just over 195 innings. Adam Wainwright had a down season in 2016, pitching to a 4.62 ERA and 1.404 WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched). Optimism exists that Wainwright can return to the form he had when he was the staff's ace, in which he owns a career 3.17 ERA. Right hand pitcher Mike Leake (9 wins-12 losses, 4.69 ERA) signed a five year contract with the Cardinals prior to the 2016 season. His numbers were very disappointing and early returns on this move signals for it to be a bad contract for St. Louis. Michael Wacha pitched in the World Series as a rookie in 2013, but has not gotten back to form since. If Lynn is not ready to go, 22 year-old Luke Weaver is the first to get a shot to fill in. Former All Star closer Trevor Rosenthal is an option to start, an option that became a little more evident with the injury to Reyes. Rosenthal was terrible last season, losing his closer job to Oh and pitching to a 4.46 ERA and an alarming 1.90 WHIP. As the Cardinals are getting set to start the season, there is no doubt that Oh will be the team's closer. He managed to strike out 103 batters in less than 80 innings pitched. He is joined by an aging Jonathan Broxton, who pitched to a 4.30 ERA and left handed pitcher Kevin Siegrist. Cecil and right handers Matthew Bowman and John Gant- both former Mets prospects- will round out the projected bullpen. The key decision will be what to do with Rosenthal, who completely lost his control last season. He walked 29 batters in just over 40 innings and hit another three batters. If Rosenthal does not improve off his issues from last year, it is not going to matter where he pitches. The Cardinals could use him in their starting rotation, but will be a much better team if he returns to his 2015 form (2.10 ERA, 1.267 WHIP) and attempts to regain his closer's position. It will be tough to dethrone the "Final Boss," who has a reputation of being the most dominant reliever in the history of the continent of Asia. The Cardinals have decided to move some of their players to different, though familiar, positions with hopes of improving their putrid 2016 defense. Matt Carpenter is moving from third base to first base, Jhonny Peralta moves from shortstop to third base and center fielder Randall Grichuk is moving to left field. The Cardinals had six players hit over 20 home runs, with infielder Jedd Gyorko leading the way with 30. However, Gyorko could lose out on a chance to play everyday as he battles organizational favorite Kolton Wong for the second base job. Right fielder Stephen Piscotty (.273, 22, 85) and shortstop Aledmys Diaz (.300, 17, 85) are coming off very good seasons and are the youthful part of the team's core. Grichuk hit a disappointing .240 after a great rookie season. Catcher Yadier Molina hit .307 last season in 147 games though the Cardinals are looking to lessen hist workload. All things being equal (batting average, etc.), I take Gyorko's power over Wong. The latter can be a good utility player and is the only one of the two to have any reasonable experience in the outfield. The lineup I would go with is Fowler CF, Grichuk LF, Carpenter 1B, Piscotty RF, Gyorko 2B, Molina C, Peralta 3B, Diaz SS. Matt Adams will be the prominent left hand hitter off the bench, being joined by Wong, Greg Garcia and Tommy Pham. 22 year-old Carson Kelly will be the team's backup catcher. Journeyman Eric Fryer will try to wrestle the job away from him. The Cardinals top prospects are Reyes and Weaver, with the latter pitching for a spot in the team's rotation. A good amount of the Cardinals prospects are in major league camp, including pitchers Marco Gonzalez, Jack Flaherty, Sandy Alcantara and Chris Ellis. Among position players to look at are outfielder Harrison Bader and third baseman Paul DeJong. I think the Cardinals, in spite of some solid youth sprinkled in, seem like an old baseball team. Of course, a lot of their players are not the age of the 2015 New York Yankees, but they do seem like the figurative age of the 2012-2013 Philadelphia Phillies. What has impressed about this organization the most is the fact that they have always had the right young players come in to help them at the right time. I do not think it is over by any stretch of the imagination in Anheuser Busch country. I saw this as being a down season from the beginning with the TJ surgery for Reyes being the exclamation point of my feelings. I think they will be a little better defensively with Fowler in center and Grichuk in left in addition to Peralta at third baseman and Carpenter at first. But, they need to pitch better than they did last season, which I am not sure they can do. Rosenthal's numbers last season were scary and I do not mean it in a good way. I think Las Vegas was too high on the Cardinals with their over/ under number of 87.5. I think it was built more on reputation than the construction of their current roster. The number was also set before the team lost Reyes. I am taking the under, predicting the Cardinals will finish the season at 78-84, third place in the National League Central division.

One of the major questions that exist when predicting the win totals of all major league baseball teams is which of the playoff teams will start to depreciate. Once that happens, the next question is how that will impact the team going into the current season. Players get older and their impacts over time are no longer what they were during their prime. It happens differently with different players and without notice, can happen to multiple players at the same time. We have seen it happen with good teams such as the 2014 Tigers and the 2012 Phillies. The 2014 Tigers have retooled and added important core pieces. The Phillies of 2012 on trusted the talent they had already assembled and were hoping their core players would rebound. The Phillies have completely tore it down and started over and we will find out very soon whether the Tigers will be doing the same thing. The St. Louis Cardinals are probably the most consistent franchise in all of baseball right now. The Cardinals have made the postseason each of the past five seasons and have had winning records in the last eight. Prior to their last losing season in 2007, the Cardinals had winning season in the past eight seasons as well. The most recent version saw the team win 100 games and there are many reasons think the team can perform at that same level. The one player who is considered the heart and sole of the Cardinals franchise is catcher Yadier Molina. The reigning seven time All Star and eight time Gold Glover has a value to the Cardinals that it is hard to match for any other player for any team. Molina has proven to be a clutch hitter and is and has been the best defensive catcher in the game. Most importantly, Molina has made the Cardinals pitching staff as good as it is and is considered one of the best game callers with his preparation being perhaps the best the game has ever seen. Offensively, the .283 career hitter has not fallen off. He hit .270 last season, though his on base plus slugging dropped to .660, the lowest it has been in a season since 2006. The 33 year-old has battled injuries over the past two seasons, costing him the deciding game in the 2015 National League Division Series against the Chicago Cubs as well as three games of the 2014 National League Championship Series against the San Francisco Giants. It is safe to say there are few players more important to their team that Yadier Molina is to the St.Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals lost starting pitcher Lance Lynn (12 wins, 11 losses, 3.03 earned run average, 167 strikeouts, just over 175 innings pitched) for the 2016 season to Tommy John surgery. John Lackey (13-10, 2.77, 175, 218) left to join the rival Cubs as did star right fielder Jason Heyward (.293, 13, 60, .797). The Cardinals did sign right hander Mike Leake (11-10, 3.70, 192 innings pitched) as a free agent and are counting on the return of top starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (2-1, 1.41, 7 games, 4 starts). The Cardinals also traded outfielder John Jay to the San Diego Padres for infielder Jedd Gyorko (.247, 16, 57, .694). The acquisition of Gyorko seemed like a depth move because of the Cardinals infield situation. Second baseman Kolten Wong (.262, 11, 61, .707), shortstop Jhonny Peralta (.275, 17, 71, .745) and third baseman Matt Carpenter (.272, 28, 84, .871) all played in over 150 games last season. However, the sudden injury to Peralta will cost him the first two or three months of the season and Gyorko will get to see a lot of time at shortstop. Ironically, Gyorko played 29 games at shortstop in 2015, a position he had never played professionally before. Perhaps it was the seasoning he needed to help the Cardinals in 2016. Expect the Cardinals to be active in trying to find a more natural shortstop to help out defensively. The Cardinals also signed reliever Seung Hwan Oh, a top relief pitcher from Japan, to help out the back of the bullpen. The Cardinals have a lot of depth both in infield and the outfield. Outfielders Randall Grichuk (.276, 17, 47, .877) and Stephen Piscotty (.305, 7, 39, .853) have become everyday players. Matt Holliday (.279, 4, 35, .804) is coming off an injury plagued 2015 but is playing some first base with the hopes of preserving his legs for the season. The Cardinals also have first baseman Matt Adams (.240, 5, 24, .657), himself limited to just 60 games last season. The addition last season of left hand hitting Brandon Moss (.226, 19, 58, .711) gives the Cards essentially five players to use in their four positions. Brayan Pena (.273, 0, 18, .659) has been brought in to give Molina a little more rest. Perhaps having a legitimate backup will allow for manager Mike Matheny to rest Molina a little more throughout the season and Pena can start behind the plate for weeks at a time if Molina were to have to go on the disabled list. With a healthy Peralta, hopefully in two months as opposed to three, the Cardinals have as deep of a bench as anybody in baseball. The Cardinals lineup I would go with right now is Carpenter 3B, Piscotty RF, Grichuk CF, Holliday LF, Moss 1B, Molina C, Gyorko SS, Wong 2B. Adams will play some first with Moss filling in for the corner outfielders. Tommy Pham (.268, 5, 18, .824) is likely to make the team because he provides insurance in center field, something the team does not have anywhere else. The key to the Cardinals rotation will be how much of an impact Wainwright will have as he returns from his injury. He looked great towards the end the season, however, the Cardinals expect him to be their ace. Wainwright's second and third seasons back from Tommy John (2013 and 2014) saw him return to the pitcher he was at just prior to the operation in 2009 and 2010. Those four seasons saw Wainwright win a total of 78 games, finish with an ERA between 2.38 and 2.94 each season and also finishing in the top three in the National League Cy Young voting all four seasons. While it is not silly to think he can pitch as well as he did in those four seasons, I think it is important to question his durability at this point in his career. He may defy the odds, but he will be 35 this season and is being counted on to be the team's top starter. However, having Leake, Michael Wacha (17-7, 3.38, 153 Ks in just over 181 innings pitched) and Carlos Martinez (14-7, 3.01, 184 Ks, just under 180 IP) may allow for a transition in power in the Cardinals rotation. If Wainwright can pitch well as a number three starter and two of the three can pitch well enough to be a one and a two, the Cardinals rotation looks a lot deeper. Left hander Jaime Garcia (10-6, 2.43, 20 starts) had a solid bounce back season coming off injuries that have sidelined him for the past couple seasons. Let us see if Garcia can handle an increased workload, perhaps as many as the just under 1995 innings he pitched in 2011. Trevor Rosenthal (2-4, 2.10, 48 saves, 83 Ks, just less than 69 IP) has become one of the more dependable closers in all of baseball. Oh, who dominated for eleven seasons in Korea and Japan with 357 saves and averaging almost 11 K per 9 innings pitched, joins a solid mix with fixtures Kevin Siegrist (7-1, 2.17, 90 Ks, less than 75 IP) and Seth Maness (4-2, 4.26, 76 games). Maness had a couple rough outings in 2015 but overall pitched as well as he did the year before. The Cardinals could possess one of the better bullpens in the entire National League if they can get a major contribution from Jordan Walden, the forgotten player in the Shelby Miller/ Heyward trade. The one time Los Angeles Angels closer has averaged nearly 11 Ks per 9 IP. Jonathan Broxton and Mitch Harris will also be in the mix. On the Cardinals radar this season should be top overall prospect Alex Reyes. The right handed pitcher managed to strike out 15 batters in just over 101 innings in three different levels last season. Perhaps he is the first to come up to the rotation if there is an injury as the Cardinals really do not have a ton of depth past their top five. Left handers Tyler Lyons and Marco Gonzalez will also be in the mix, both being pretty highly touted themselves a couple years ago. Shortstop Edmundo Sosa looks to have the ability to be a very good offensive player. If the 20 year old can move through the minor league system this season, maybe he can get a look as a September call-up this year. If not, he may have a shot to make the team out of spring training next season. The Cardinals really have not gotten enough credit for being as consistent as they have been for the last 15 years. They have done a great job developing young players and working them in to replace some of the veterans. Losing Peralta is not the end of the world, but it hurts. Losing Lynn is not going to determine their season, but it is worth noting. Wainwright and Molina are going to need to be healthy if this season is going to go as expected (the Cardinals are always expected to do well). I see this team as fragile, though they are very talented. Las Vegas has the Cardinals at 87.5 as their over/ under and I will take the under. I have the Cardinals at 80-82, third place in the National League Central.