I am almost flabbergasted by the spin and blunt-face upon which this news is delivered. We were just discussing the pot calling the kettle black with Apple / Adobe and now Microsoft have also come out in favour of a closed video format for an open web--IE9's HTML5 video support will allow H264 only. Update Now that the initial shock is over, I've rewritten the article to actually represent news rather than something on Twitter.

Those two are the only possible outcomes. HTML5/H264 is NOT an option.

It will all depend on Google's decision regarding YouTube. If YouTube switches to Theora or VP8, and serves Flash to everybody else - just you wait how quick Apple and Microsoft will scramble to implement Theora/VP8.

I dislike having to be dependent on Google, but let's hope they do the right thing. Chances are slim, but hey, maybe they'll surprise us.

If not, and we stick to H264, we'll have the Jon Grubers of tomorrow blaming everyone but Apple and Microsoft when the patent shit hits the fan (which it will).

"Those two are the only possible outcomes. HTML5/H264 is NOT an option.

It will all depend on Google's decision regarding YouTube. If YouTube switches to Theora or VP8, and serves Flash to everybody else - just you wait how quick Apple and Microsoft will scramble to implement Theora/VP8.

I dislike having to be dependent on Google, but let's hope they do the right thing. Chances are slim, but hey, maybe they'll surprise us.

If not, and we stick to H264, we'll have the Jon Grubers of tomorrow blaming everyone but Apple and Microsoft when the patent shit hits the fan (which it will). "

Google's apparent objection to Theora (namely, Google indicated a belief that Ogg Theora's quality-per-bit is not yet suitable for the volume handled by YouTube) was true in June, 2009. Theora then was version 1.0.

Maybe VP8 includes licensed use of someone else's technology, and Google will be unable to release it royalty-free.

Maybe Google and Mozilla are both waiting for Ptalarbvorm. Maybe Google is helping Mozilla to write a robust VP8 player that can be included in Firefox.

I don't know, but by looking at this list: http://www.mpegla.com/main/programs/AVC/Pages/Licensors.aspx
and seeing a longish list of not-exactly-friends-of-Google, I see a very strong incentive for Google to escape from the need to be beholden to MPEG LA in order for Google to conduct its YouTube business.