December 28, 2009

A. The Bureau has released three new sets of population estimates: 2009 National Total Population Estimates; 2009 State Total Population Estimates; and 2009 Puerto Rico Commonwealth Total Population Estimates. To access the estimates, go to:

A. “Childcare and family ideology in Sweden,” by Sandra Krapf (WP-2009-044, December 2009, .pdf format, 25p.).

Abstract:

This study examines the impact of public and private childcare supply and family ideologies on individual childbearing behavior in Sweden. We assume that childcare services facilitate the reconciliation of family and paid work. However, this relationship is not independent from family images like “dual-earners” or the “male-breadwinner”. Although differences in family ideologies are not very pronounced in an egalitarian society like Sweden, we expect that childcare provision encourages young adults to start a family especially if dual-earner families are well accepted. In the empirical part, we use logistic regressions to analyze the entry into parenthood. Based on the Swedish survey “Family and Working Life in the 21st Century” and regional data for the years 2001 to 2003, we find that the probability to become parents is low in regions with a high level of childcare provision. However, in regions where non-familial childcare is highly accepted and, simultaneously, the childcare supply is high individuals are more likely to have a first child. This finding shows the importance of attitudes towards family arrangements on fertility behavior and childcare usage.

B. “Declining fertility in Ukraine: what is the role of abortion and contraception?” by Nataliia Levchuk and Brienna Perelli-Harris (WP-2009-045, December 2009, .pdf format, 46p.).

Abstract:

In this paper we analyze the changing relationship between childbearing and abortion in Ukraine, which has had one of the world’s highest abortion rates and lowest fertility rates. Using the 2007 Ukrainian Demographic and Health Survey, we examine changes in abortion before and after the dramatic fertility decline. We estimate event history models for first abortions as well as competing risks hazards by pregnancy outcome. Our results show that although abortion rates rapidly declined in the 1990s, abortions have impacted fertility by lowering second birth rates. On the other hand, abortions have been used less frequently for postponing first births, as is more common in developed countries. We also describe how this relationship has been maintained through the slow adoption of modern contraception. Thus, Ukraine represents a country with an unusual relationship between fertility, abortion, and contraception, and where low fertility has been achieved with little reliance on modern methods.

Myth 1: There was no population growth problem in the 1960s and 1970s.
Myth 2: The world’s population is not growing and today’s problem is low birth rates.
Myth 3: Europe will be predominately Muslim by 2050.”

B. “Saving Rates of New Zealanders: A Net Wealth Approach,” by Grant M. Scobie and Katherine Henderson (TWP09-04, December 2009, .pdf format, 74p.). Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at:

C. “A Simple Model of Housing Rental and Ownership with Policy Simulations,” by Andrew Coleman and Grant M. Scobie (TWP09-05, December 2009, .pdf format, 33p.). Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at: