2019 Season Predictions

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International Rep

I could be alone on this, but I rate Nene McDonald as one of the best signings of 2019. Nene was an underrated part of the Titans ascent in 2016 and has been one of the Dragons better performers in 2017-18. At the very least he's an upgrade over Winterstein and he gives the Cowboys another strong runner and finisher. The centres concern me somewhat but they're the one position I think coaches can compromise on.

Not alone, I made a prediction (Maybe in the Origin thread?) a few months back that I thought he was a chance for Origin this year, I almost put him down as leading try scorer as well, but that would've contradicted my hot take that the Cowboys aren't good and won't make the 8 :P

NRL Captain

Not alone, I made a prediction (Maybe in the Origin thread?) a few months back that I thought he was a chance for Origin this year, I almost put him down as leading try scorer as well, but that would've contradicted my hot take that the Cowboys aren't good and won't make the 8 :P

International Captain

Edit, but that's not going to force the NRL to do anything. They don't give a fuck about crowd numbers. It's TV ratings for them. We need to stop watching the Broncos on FTA. That way they see how much the NRL relies on the Broncos, and we may get some more arvo games instead.

7 and 8 are tough because I don't rate any of the sides out of the top 6, so I just went with smokies based on trial form. I don't get people talking up the Dragons: they will be shit without JDB and a reject Broncos halves combo, especially with the talk of Mary playing Dufty on the bench and changing the spine mid-game.

The cows have a massive pack, but more sides are going for mobility and I suspect they will fail if the game is refereed properly (played up tempo with ruck speed emphasised and wrestling penalised). They also have a shocking spine and outside backs, as in wooden spoon standard.

The Eels actually have an amazing pack now with Lane and Paulo. Add in Alvaro and Brown improving and hopefully staying injury free and they will go better than some are predicting. No Hayne and Norman will help them as well as those two are absolute cancers on the clubs they play for, Moses also seems to play better when he has control of a side and Brown looks the goods. Fergo will also help them immensely, as will Gutho playing FB and coming into his second year post-ACL.

A couple of caveats here. I didn't consider players who are currently under investigation, so players like Jack de Belin and Dylan Walker were kept out of the ratings. I also didn't consider players who are facing long lay-offs on the sideline like Wade Graham and Jordan Rapana. The reason being for the latter, is that they're set to miss a significant chunk of time and there's no guarantee they will hit the ground running. If we were to factor in those players, this is what the rankings would look like:

Geez I'm getting good at writing up these ladders. Now I think you can see the issue with this approach. Historically there's always been 2 teams who have dropped out of last year's Top 8, if not 3. While this doesn't take into account injuries, it also doesn't factor in form fluctuation and other factors that affect the ladder. Still, it takes some of the guess-work, vibes, intuitions etc. out of it.

My methodology went like so. I rated teams out of ten on Spine (1, 6, 7, 9), Backs (2-5), Forwards (8, 10, 11, 12, 13) where I'd assign each player a score and then calculate the average.

I also rated teams based on their bench. I assigned each player a score out of ten, calculated the average then divided it by 2. My belief is that the bench isn't as valuable as other components of the team.

As for coaches, I assigned them a score out of ten and also divided it by half because a good team can mask an inept coach.

A score of 10 indicated the best player in that position or equal to, a score of 5 meant you were either a rookie or among the worst players.

I'd be curious to see others carry out the exercise and see what results they get.

NRL Captain

The Eels actually have an amazing pack now with Lane and Paulo. Add in Alvaro and Brown improving and hopefully staying injury free and they will go better than some are predicting. No Hayne and Norman will help them as well as those two are absolute cancers on the clubs they play for, Moses also seems to play better when he has control of a side and Brown looks the goods. Fergo will also help them immensely, as will Gutho playing FB and coming into his second year post-ACL.

I loathe to criticize anyones predictions because we're all stabbing in the dark at this point, but Parramatta seemingly do a wonderful job of sucking the life and talent out of players. I expect Lane and Paulo, especially Paulo to regress now he's on a fat contract. Same with Fergo to a degree. There's a difference playing for the Roosters wherein if you aren't at your best they'll replace you, and playing for the perennial cellar-dwellers. Kinda like an attitude thing, well, who you get gonna get to replace me?