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Thursday, March 6

Well, well, well...after a very cold, long 2013-14 winter the coldest day of them all was early this morning, March 6th, when -9° was recorded officially! This easily broke the old record, & set a new all time coldest March temperature ever measured in Rochester's recorded history!! The previous records are displayed above. Impressive to say the least, & appropriate this winter!!

A nice moderation will take place over the next couple of days, before colder air seeps in this weekend, & possibly another shot of Arctic air mid to late next week!? Stay tuned & enjoy the sun & milder temperatures Friday.

My only opinion so far is that there will very likely be cyclogenesis somewhere in the eastern US. Whether it's a big storm for us or not is still very much in question. I elect to shy away from "gut feelings" as they usually just end in diarrhea.

In all seriousness it's quite surprising to me that this is now the second blog post to not even hint at next week's storm. The News 8 team is either playing it extremely low key, or they're seeing some subtle/obscure indication that's making them lean heavily towards no storm. And it must be more obscure than a garage rock band because I haven't seen a single expert discussion that leans this way...quite the opposite actually.

I was just about to come back here and post about it. Yeah it's very similar to yesterday's 12z except a touch further south and about 12 hours faster. This video sums up my thoughts on it quite nicely:

A little movement south relative to yesterday's 12z run. It came north from 00z. The GFS also came north along with its ensemble mean, as did the GGEM (not to our benefit) and the Euro ensemble mean. Suppression is still a concern, but I think the chances of a flat frontal wave sliding off the outer banks are now drastically lower than they were yesterday. The only important detail is that the case for a storm in the eastern US is clearly solidifying.

Quote From Don Paul, WIVB weather blog out of Buffalo earlier this afternoon:

The 00Z ECMWF & 12Z GFS deterministic models are in fairly good agreement on next week’s storm system. However, the 12z GFS ensemble mean has moved the storm farther N & W (closer to us) than the previous 06z GFS ensemble mean, so the storm is by no means a dead issue. In addition, the deterministic GFS shows a tight pressure gradient with the storm which would bring a gusty, cold NE wind to our region along with whatever snow we get. “Still bears watching.”

Obviously its still a week away, but for me, I do enjoy the blogging scenarios that lead up to the storm (and that includes whehter we get the storm or whether we do not get the storm).

Yes CCCC agree just worry that the strength of the HPs have been underdone recently. That is the one thing I believe would cause the suppression. Is that right what the 12z EURO said both days-30 inches for WNY?

NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook:A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOW STORM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERTHE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN IS EXPECTED TOMOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TUESDAYNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE STORM SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAYNIGHT. THIS STORM TRACK WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANTACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEWYORK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

If there are all these postings about a potential significant winter storm, with 30+ inches of snow. Why are the local weather people not even mentioning it. Very concerned, especially with the above posting from Weatherguy. You would think the word "Hazardous" would cause one of the three to say something. But silience is NOT GOOD. So if Scott again posts, like last time as to rate how he did with the last storm forecast -- he might want to pack his bags. Very disappointment.

Rest assured, the odds of a 30+ inch snowstorm next week are incredibly slim. That would end up being one of the top 3 snowfalls of all time in Rochester, easily historic. Never bank on historic outcomes at a 6-7 day lead time. That said, the fact that wording such as "significant" is being used at this lead time is rather telling IMO. It indicates that, should this storm achieve its maximum potential, it would not be a garden variety winter storm. I fully expect all three stations to at least hint at this storm potential in the forecasts this afternoon. KW already has, and believes the Euro is leading the way (but not necessarily showing the correct outcome at the moment).

So disappointed in local weather folks. All three for next Wednesday and Thursday are only saying: Temp: 21 to 26 degrees with 45% to 30% change of snow. With Scott saying for Wednesday 'flakes south" and Thursday "Coast Watch". Boy talk about disappointing and not keeping the public informed.

Keep hearing about this severe winter storm we can expect later part of next week. Wonder how the City is beginning to plan for the St. Patrick's Day Parade on 3/15. Can't imagine there being a parade with as much snow I some bloggers are stating. At least it will keep those who will be drinking possibly off the road. As there have been too many accidents of people who have been drinking driving the wrong way on the roads.

"Keep hearing about this severe winter storm we can expect later part of next week."

Whooaaa hold the phone there sailor, no one is expecting a severe winter storm. The discussion right now is strictly about the possibilities, nothing specific is being indicated yet. Those huge totals being thrown around are purely theoretical and too extreme to be taken seriously.

A late season snow storm would be a perfect end to a great winter in Hamlin. If nothing else it is keeping it fun to follow the weather. CCCC keep the posts coming they are all good and the humor is also appreciated.

The NWS is not saying 30+ inches of snow, they are stating that models have been consistently showing a significant snowstorm affecting our area next Wed/Thur... And don't worry about News 8, they will chime in at the appropriate time.

AnonymousMarch 6, 2014 at 2:53 PMYes CCCC agree just worry that the strength of the HPs have been underdone recently. That is the one thing I believe would cause the suppression. Is that right what the 12z EURO said both days-30 inches for WNY?Reply

Carol Cheryl Cristal CherleneMarch 6, 2014 at 3:00 PMThat is correct. It is also almost certainly overdone.

Scott just said on his forecast his "gut" is telling him not an impact for us even if anything does develop. Way too far out to get any hype going for any where. He is right so lets sit back and see what develops. One thing is for sure there will be no 30 inches.

"Scott just said on his forecast his "gut" is telling him not an impact for us even if anything does develop."Incorrect, he said his gut tells him it won't be "a huge huge deal." Other than that he is spot on, no need to get hyped about something a week away.

"One thing is for sure there will be no 30 inches."I give it a negligibly small chance. Like 0.001 percent. So basically almost a near certainty.

Not even a whiff of a potential storm from GJ at 615...either they are playing it safe for once or they see no potential. And for people who r freaking out about next week ...remember that these posts are just conversation ...if the local Mets see something substantial you can bet they will let you know. They love to tease and Boost ratings.

A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOW STORM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERTHE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN IS EXPECTED TOMOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TUESDAYNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE STORM SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAYNIGHT. THIS STORM TRACK WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANTACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEWYORK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

Yes Snowdog I believe Weatherguy posted it a while back. It is interesting they put that out this far in advance. Again my concern is the HP that will be north and its placement and strength. I am concerned that may suppress the storm south and east, That has been the trend this winter as you have said. But who knows there is a high likelihood that there will be a pretty strong storm somewhere in the NE maybe we will be the lucky ones this time.

I actually don't think true suppression is the greatest concern at this point. That Canadian high has been modeled to be much weaker than the behemoths that squashed a good number of storms in February, and with the polar vortex further away the high shouldn't come screaming down into the Lower 48 the way those other ones did. What would send this puppy further south IMO is a later phase, which would result in a weaker system that gets shunted more easily by the high. An earlier phase would result in a stronger storm that attacks the high instead and causes it to yield somewhat. What needs to be watched is how much the northern stream component digs down i.e. how far south into the Plains it moves to potentially meet up with southern jet stream energy. The GFS has been digging the northern shortwave energy much less. The northern energy misses the phase, and the southern energy simply slides into the Southeast and dies out. End result is a weaker system consisting entirely of northern stream energy, which can get shunted south more easily. The Euro has been digging the same energy more aggressively, which allows for it to meet up with the southern disturbance and form a stronger phased storm. One of the typical GFS biases involves being too progressive (less "diggy") with northern shortwaves. The Euro, on the other hand, tends to dig these shortwaves too much and over-amplify storm systems. The Euro also tends to handle phasing situations better than the GFS overall, with the more "diggy" solutions ultimately winning out. So what does all of this gibberish mean? It means the main key to this whole thing is how the northern jet stream behaves, and that the setup favors a final outcome closer to the Euro depiction but not as strong. Bernie Rayno's latest video covers essentially the same ideas, and he ends up drawing the same conclusion.

Now count the number of times I used the terms "energy" and "shortwave" in this post ;)

I'm not sure why everyone is so surprised that News 8 (and others) hasn't commented on storm potential for next week. It's extremely rare that they weigh in this far out, especially Scott who usually doesn't chime in until 2-3 days out. Obviously the big story today was the cold - I was shocked to see the temp on my phone this morning was -8 when I woke up, but now you guys have me intrigued...time to look at some models.

Not that it matters much right now, but it went south from 18z. Much different surface depiction, which continues the theme. The 12z Euro ensemble mean was south of the operational, but then again so is every ensemble mean right now compared to the operationals. The means haven't exactly been consistent though, at least as far as ensemble means go. It's possible that the means are being skewed by storm-less members, or it could be a red flag that the operationals are too amped. Either one could be the case.

But the -9 this morning was the 10th subzero day and got me wondering how often that happens. So I downloaded the KROC data from 1926-Present off off wunderground. Dumped it in a spreadsheet and set up a few pivot tables of temperature extremes.

I posted the excel file and a picture of some of the sorted pivot tables to my box.net account.https://app.box.com/s/qb41qre7a3btnoel0w7z

You can click on my name to the left to take you to the excel file and a picture of the results. Surely someone else likes dragging things around in a pivot table.

Here's the short version. While not as cold of a winter as one might think average wise (I didn't calculate this yet. But I think we were 'only' about 4 degrees below normal. It has had some extreme cold. The following ranks are only from 1926 to present.

Sorry CCCC but I think the latest GFS is a sign of things to come. Snowdog on it again with the winter trend of SE. I think any storm no matter how strong will be south and east of us. You can tell in their forecasts that both KW and Scott just want to say this is not a player here and we will south of us. I do not get they believe at all this is a storm for WNY. Hope I am wrong but I think the Snowdog will be upset again.

"You can tell in their forecasts that both KW and Scott just want to say this is not a player here and we will south of us."

I don't know about Scott, but KW tweeted earlier that he believes the Euro is leading the way. A lot of other pros seem to be leaning that way as well. So the GFS appears to be the underdog at the moment.

Late night homework-inspired model update: Euro ticked south about 75 miles or so, slightly less amped than the 12z run. Unimportant shift at this time range. The 30+ inch lollipops are gone, which is far from surprising. Rochester gets a foot of snow verbatim, but lake enhancement would factor in late. Snowfall amounts aside, I believe this track/intensity is approximately what the final outcome will be, give or take 50 miles either direction. And before anyone gets the urge to declare this the beginning of a marked SE shift, know that last night's 00z run was much further south than tonight's run was. And the GGEM actually went further north from 12z. Still a fuzzy picture.

I still hear people state that this has been a snowy winter. I totally disagree. We are at 86" which is 14 inches shy of normal. It has not been a snowy winter for most except if you live in the snow belts or North of 104. For most of us we are at or below normal in snowfall especially if you live South of the thruway. It has ben a cold winter for sure but not nearly the coldest. As far as the storm goes I would love to see us get hot with it but I still feel it will miss us South and East as most have done this year. It will be more of a PA player.

We also know that the EURO has been terrible this year with storms. It always shows a BOMB a week in advance only to come in line with the GFS as a much weaker storm. This will be no exception in my opinion.

12z GFS is horrible not even a storm. This is going by the waste side quickly. No wonder the local mets were quiet. Winter is going to spring and that is ok. Just do not like being teased like yesterday.

Anon 11:14 is correct bad run way SE and not strong at all. This is not good with the 12z run which is more reliable than the others. I expect the EURO to trend to weaker and SE. This baby is almost ready to be put in the barn and I do not care what CCCC says who is now kind of absent.

How is one model having the storm in southern New Hampshire while the other has it in the Outer Banks considered "agreement?" One thing I've learned over the years is to never toss the Euro in potential big storm situations. Last year in early February it stood completely alone with the big New England blizzard, not even its own ensembles agreed with it. Look what happened. This time around not only does it have ensemble support, but the majority of its own ensemble members are stronger and further NW. Am I saying they'll necessarily be correct? Absolutely not, just making the point that the Euro is not exactly flying solo right now.

"Storm is history for our area."Oh really? NWS discussion:

"THE NEW 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A WIDE ENVELOPE OF TIMING AND TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH SEVERAL SHOWING A LOW TRACK MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE ECMWF."

"IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE ANY SENSE OF MODEL CONSISTENCY EMERGES."

Respect your thoughts CCCC just do not like the set-up for a big storm. Do not jet the energies phasing to create a big storm let alone a favorable track NW for us if it did phase. Time will tell but I think the 12z EURO run in an hour or so will be interesting.

The large scale setup is the most favorable it has been all season thanks to limited north Atlantic blocking. The problem lies with getting the jet energies timed correctly for a phase, which becomes a bit easier (but not guaranteed) with downstream blocking. You're right though, the 12z Euro will definitely be interesting.

"The 12z deterministic GFS is much farther south with the low, almost outlierish. However, it’s ensemble mean is farther north with the storm, and has good continuity with the 06z ensemble mean, both tracks capable of bringing significant snow (06 & 12 ensemble means)."

CCCC even if we do miss out at least this gives us something to chat about. You are a glass half full kind of guy, seems like others are half empty, or no glass at all. its easy to say it will go SE like all the other storms, but you have provided sufficient evidence to at least give it a look over the next few days. Just to say it will go SE because all others have this winter is giving up in my mind and thats too easy. I am in it until we conceede or are shoveling. thanks for your insight here. As i mentioned the other day, no one from news 8 is here to chime in. So you and the others who have the ability to interpret models are giving us somethign to read and follow at least.

CCCC. I have no idea how you have the time for all of this. But I really look forward to your (and others) interpretations of the models. I don't sweat the glass half empty people or the glass half foot people. I just enjoy the thoughtful activity. I hope your coursework is not suffering!

I agree with Farmington on CCCC. Saying the storm is history is the same logic as if CCCC said it's definitely going to dump 2 ft of snow on Rochester, which she hasn't done.All this talk about 100 inches this winter has a lot to do with luck. Some have said it's been too cold, but it's been cold in Buffalo and Syracuse too, and they are already over 100 inches.Granted we haven't had the big one, we just haven't been in the sweet spot for lake effect north of the thruway. Instead it's been north of 104.

agreed. I want snow like the rest, it just gets old hearing from the same people about how it just wont happen in terms of getting 100 inches. who cares. winter could stop right now and id be fine. Why is that number such a milestone? just my thought.

Agreed, I'd like to see another storm soon. However the longer we go into March the more the novelty for this snow lover wears off.

Also couldn't agree with you more about this winter. Total snowfall isn't the only measure of winters success or harshness. It's been a pretty good and snowy winter for most of us in Monroe, East and West. Businesses dependent upon snow have done very well this winter. The only bummer I see is that we had a couple of melts and harsh rains that melted an otherwise epic snow pack potential.

We still got a good shot at 100" and if we get a storm then my target set back in Dec of 110" looks very possible. Unfortunately I think we're gonna have to have snow in April to get there and I'd rather be wrong about that if it means we get spring weather in the next few weeks. But unless the cold suddenly switches to warmth, I don't see March or even early April being much to crow about.

Euro operational stands its ground. 984mb over Cape May NJ, not too different from yesterday's 12z except a touch flatter. Can't tell for sure with IWM's 24 hour intervals but it looks better than the 00z run. 12z Canadian ensembles look better than 00z, and much better than the operational which is kind of on its own right now. The glass is indeed half full folks ;)

It would be a general 12-18 for Monroe County on south and east, with 9-12 in Orleans. 18+ across the Finger Lakes. Basically amounts to nitpicking at this point, but that's what the model shows. Lots of time for shifts.

You are correct CCCC still 5 days out and who knows what will happen but at least we have something to pay attention too for the next few days. I would think by Monday night we would have a good idea where it is going. I would think at least ALL of our local mets are paying attention to this now.

Have clients flying in Thursday morning for big meeting; will now need to look at alternative plans with we are expecting that much snow. It would be a Winter Storm, and perhaps the person who keeps predicting a blizzard for the Flower City will actually be right this time.

i wouldn't cancel plans this far out. This blog is nice because it alerts us of "potential situations" far sooner than the TV mets would. but be cautious but not too crazy yet. Although personally i would not mind a day off from work ;-)

Going go have to be one heck of a storm to produce those amounts in midmarch. I remember one on st Patrick's that called for a ton of snow but because of sun angle roads stayed wet until it got dark out

From NWS....ECMWF AND GFS ARE SLOWLY EDGING FARTHER SOUTH ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND EVEN THE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION OFFERS LITTLE CONCRETE ASSURANCE AS THE TO EXACT TRACK OF THE APPALACHIAN STORM.

GIVEN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION...A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES...BUT WITH PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REGARDING TRACK AND TIMING. ALL POSSIBILITIES ARE ON THE TABLE AT THIS POINT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY FROM DRY AND COLD TO A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR NOW. IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE ANY SENSE OF MODEL CONSISTENCY EMERGES.

18z GFS still good hit for us. Similar track as EURO but not as strong. This run caves to the EURO which is good for us. Be interesting to see what the Oz runs show tonight on both GFS and EURO but this to me looking more and more like a storm for us but still early.

I'd call the 18z GFS a partial cave. Clearly still trying to sniff out the setup, but overall it looks much better than previous runs.

Pretty hilarious how the GFS and GGEM differ so drastically from their ensemble means. Meanwhile the Euro operational is in near perfect agreement with its own ensemble mean, and in decent agreement with the other ensemble means. Makes me wonder why anyone would dismiss the Euro at this point.

Summarizing, he places our region into an elevated risk zone for significant impacts for wintry precipitation (in our case all or mostly snow), and believes the chance for a more northerly track is greater than that for a more southerly one. He still believes the GFS isn't handling the setup properly.

CPC hazards for Days 3 through 7:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

I saw something interesting just now reading Joe Lundberg's blog. He posted a map from the Euro weekly which shows a very high positive snowfall anomaly for next week covering the entire Northeast, with Rochester inside of the highest anomaly zone. He also mentioned that the run from last Thursday did a good job pinpointing where the snow would be this week, and believes it will do well again with next week.

In my opinion that was our last shot at a storm. I have lived in Rochester a long time to know that if you do not get the BIG one in the first few weeks of March than forget about it. KW jumped the gun as well as many talking about it so early, but it is ok to discuss the potential. That is what this BLOG is for. Next week looks dry and boring. KW has been talking about the pattern getting more active every week this winter and it never happened. I am ready for spring as I am tired of this cold and lack of storms here in Rochester. Under 100" officially is still a good bet.

Joe Lundberg is one of many AccuWeather gurus lurking out there, and, yes, unless he's reading it all wrong, Roc is smack dab in the sweet spot for this massive snowmaker. I mean it looks like 2-3 feet maybe. Anyway, I checked the AccuWeather site for an extended forecast. For Wednesday (storm day), during the day, they say: "Rather cloudy and colder with snow possible". Snow total: 0, For Wednesday night, "cold with a little snow at times". Snow total: 0.9". Apparently Lundberg doesn't write the extended forecast copy. They are calling for 1-3" Sunday night, so there's that to look forward to. What does this all mean? Y'all can decide for yourselves.

If we are expected to get 2-3 feet of snow, why aren't any of the local weather professionals even mentioning it. All you hear is KW stating watching for a "potential" (always love the air quotes) for Wednesday night into Thursday; but no one else even talking about the potential for a major winter storm. Personally think that C-Quad should just be our local weather forecaster; truly knows his/her stuff.

No one is "expecting " 2-3 ft. Hoping maybe. I believe that was one models depiction and this far out you should take it with a grain of salt. Just remember we discuss potentials here not certainties until it is much closer.

Look at Lundberg's blog. He didn't actually predict 2-3 feet, but we are dead center of this whopper. Potential (no air quotes) for something impressive and memorable. Things may have changed since his post, but you have to admit that if he's right, we are in for it BIG time.

I think we all know it isstill too early to jump to conclusions on either side of this...it is nice to have something to read about on here. I'm sure CCCC is still asleep as he is up late...I will look forward to hearing the next round of updates

This mornings 00Z ECMWF run was NOT what I wanted to see. The slightly more southerly track was not concerning, however; the much weaker LP is. If the upper level energy in the northern jet lags behind not phasing with the LP in the plains states our chance of BIG snows are in trouble. In my opinion this much weaker storm will stay south of our area. Hopefully the 12Z ECMWF swings back the other direction with an earlier phasing and a stronger storm coming out of the plains. Still early in the game, but the trend is not what I would have liked to see.

I will say I DONT have a clew whether this next storm will be a hit or a miss NEITHER does any one else, regardless of what the post. This is the reasons why I LIKE CCCC's Posts. He never implies it is certainly going to do anything, he just evaluates the info in front of him. Keep the posts coming CCCC.

We are still in the game for significant snowfall. It trended worse on the EMCWF, but a MUCH better trend on the 12Z GFS. Putting ANY faith in a forecast at this distance would be foolish. Trending and going to happen are much different. The ONLY guarantee is that track and strength of LP will change further on upcoming model runs.

Not sure what all are talking about? The 12z GFS looks good for track very similar to what EURO was but not a bomb. I suspect CCCC is waiting for the 12z EURO to come out in about a half hour and looking of that bomb to come back but who knows. The most recent models (today) look good for us that is what I believe. The EURO in a bit will be important. But I am a rookie so who knows.

Well our local mets think nothing is coming. The 7 day on this site has light snow. The most interesting one is News 10 website now has their heavier snow icon on their 7 day for Friday and nothing Wednesday?

CCCC, I'm guessing you aren't here much on the weekend because you are busy or possibly hung over :)

These anonymous posters can knock themselves out by posting nonsensical predictions and model interpretations, but we all know the forecast of an anonymous poster is completely useless and not even worth reading.

Let me tell you, everything you might've heard about FourLoko is unabashedly true. That stuff is a horrendous devil mixture of liquid jolly ranchers and gasoline. 0/10 would not recommend.

Anyway back to weather...the 12z Euro is indeed an excellent hit for us. Well over a foot of snow regionwide coupled with strong gusty winds. The GFS is rather close to the Euro in track but not as strong or snowy, still a decent hit though with 6+ inches. Its ensemble mean is a bit more southerly with a ton of spread. The GGEM is having more wild mood swings than a pregnant teenager, so let's just keep it out of the discussion until it can find some more consistency. And the UKMET continues to be suppressed and lame. One trend I've noticed with the Euro is that its 00z runs tend to produce weaker and more southerly solutions, while the 12z runs are stronger and further north. Just a point of interest.

Oh and if I end up having to cave on this storm I won't simply run off and hide like a coward, I'll come here and admit it. Still, don't expect me to be around much until tomorrow afternoon, regardless of how things evolve tonight.

To be fair I did voice a preference regarding what scenario I believe will transpire, and if people recall correctly it did not involve a direct hit for Rochester (but not a total whiff either). I'm sticking to it until I see a reason to yield, and right now I see no reason whatsoever. Seems like there might actually be some limited convergence towards that idea happening, but there's still so much fluidity in the situation that it can't be anything beyond "limited."

I searched in every nook and cranny on the NWS site, and could not find even a subtle hint that snow was removed from the forecast. The discussion mentioned the 00z guidance being too far south, but said guidance has since moved back north. Not a forecast anyway per se. So my guess is that you're misinterpreting something or looking at the wrong thing.

"A SURFACE LOW FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL CROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND MERGE/PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW BETWEEN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE IS NOW A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS LOW PLACING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL NY WED MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW PRESENTING CATEGORICAL POPS WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR MORE...YIELDING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER A 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME 3 TO 6 HOUR DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND THE CORE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT THAT DISCREPANCY WILL RESOLVE ITSELF IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS."

AND FURTHERMORE, a new Hazardous Weather Outlook has been posted containing this paragraph:

"AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THEN TRACK BETWEEN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN STATE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT MAY IMPACT OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THERE STILL REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM."

The 12Z ECMWF and GFS runs look a lot better than the 00Z. I try not to model hug but it is difficult not to. Hopefully the GFS keeps trending towards a deeper trough and quicker phasing. If the upper level low to the north drops south quick enough to phase in the Ohio valley instead of at or along the coast it would deepen the trough quicker and "buckle" it keeping the storm further NW.

That was from last night, before today's 12z model runs. Their new discussion mentions "moderate to heavy snow" on Thursday, and their point-n-click for the city of Albany is actually one of the warmer forecasts now.