The world press is being filled with noise about a meeting on the 15th of July between Putin and Trump in Vienna. The Kremlin neither confirms nor denies whether there is a meeting [at the time of writing this was true, however the Kremlin has since confirmed the there will be a meeting on July 16th – ed], and diplomats from both sides allegedly coordinate their positions.

July 15th is a date that is inconvenient for the Russian president. On this day, the closing of the FIFA World Cup is supposed to take place at 18:00, which the president of Russia will have to be present at. Of course, it is possible to fly early in the morning to Vienna, talk to Trump before midday, and to be already in Moscow by 18:00. But why makes things so tight? Especially as the Americans can deliberately try to prolong the meeting. Anyway, it is difficult to count on any arrangements. But if Putin is late for the closure of the 2018 World Cup because of a meeting with Trump, then this delay will emphasise the importance of the event for which all other major affairs were postponed.

But Trump manages to come to Vienna without hurrying after the NATO summit that has to take place on July 11th-12th in Brussels. He will even have the time for several bilateral meetings with allies after the summit.

If indeed the meeting has to take place in general, then in order not to give the impudent Yankees any excess tactical/information advantage it would be logical to move it to either the 14th or the July 16th [the 16th was later confirmed as the actual date of the meeting – ed]. After all, if the Americans can’t meet during these days, then Russia can still wait – there is no place to hurry to. The positions of Washington become weaker, so even if Russia will have to meet with the next US president, it will only be better for Moscow.

The entire course of the events preceding the current rumours about the emergency preparation of a meeting between the two leaders testifies that for the Americans the decision to hold a meeting between the two presidents was forced. It should be remembered that originally Trump stated that he is ready to accept Putin in Washington. Generally it is the newly elected head of State that usually makes a visit to their more experienced colleague. But the Americans got used to everyone considering it as an honor to come and bow before them. Indeed, if Putin came on a visit to Washington, the US could show at the symbolical level to their allies that their superiority in world politics doesn’t raise doubts. Even leaders that oppose them come to Washington to reach an agreement about peace.

Putin ignored Trump’s hints. After this Washington’s rhetoric sharply changed and US officials started claiming that there can’t be any meetings at the highest level until Russia makes concessions in Syria and in Ukraine. In the last month Washington again changed the narrative. Now it was found out that already for one and a half years Trump wakes up to the question: “When will my meeting with Putin take place?”. But the artful environment deceived the trustful President and boycotted his instructions. But, supposedly, Trump has now taken matters into his own hands and the meeting will take place very soon. Further, it was supported by semi-confirmed, at least not disproved, hearings about the preparation of a historical bilateral meeting in Vienna.

As a matter of fact Russia won a diplomatic campaign both already before the meeting and irrespective of the meeting. During one and a half years the US tried to impose a meeting from a position of force: in Washington and on preliminary conditions. Today it is about the preparation of a meeting on a neutral platform and without any conditions. Washington conceded on all points.

However, it doesn’t mean that the meeting will surely take place. Firstly, the Kremlin has no unambiguous conviction that it is worth agreeing to negotiations, foreknowing that there won’t be any compromise solutions, that the US all the same will push through their agenda, and that Washington will surely use the fact of the negotiations itself to strengthen their information positions. On the other hand Putin already repeatedly showed his ability to fascinate foreign leaders, which subsequently facilitated contact with them. Besides this, Russia can also use the meeting for information and propaganda purposes. Moreover, at present the position of the Kremlin is stronger because it is the US who pushed for compelled concessions and showed that this meeting is more needed by them.

The question consists in whether it is worth speaking with people who aren’t yet ready to make a constructive proposal. It is possible to suggest to them to go and think about it, but they can take offense and the general situation will worsen. It is possible to begin negotiations, recognising that in the course of communication it will be possible to come to a mutually acceptable compromise. Both options of behavior have their strengths and weaknesses. In recent years Russia preferred to be involved in negotiations… well, and then we’ll see – we will always have the time to quarrel, but we can reach an agreement anyway.

It is certainly clear that one shouldn’t expect a breakthrough in Vienna. Even if negotiations will be completed in the best way, the heads of States will only declare their intention to remove bilateral contradictions and to live in peace and friendship, while the process of reach a concrete agreement after this can last years and end with nothing.

Trump can’t make a compromise right now, because he’s just severely fallen out with practically all the civilised world, from China to Canada. He has a trade war and personal hostility towards everyone. If in these conditions he makes concessions to Russia, then it will mean that the US abandoned the fight for world leadership and tried to preserve a part of its former weight in the union with Russia. But then all their former allies competing in race each other to Moscow with offers of friendship, brotherhood, and eternal loyalty. And this will additionally weaken the positions of the US.

That’s why it is necessary for Trump at the NATO summit in Brussels to receive at least some unity (at least on minor questions) in order to speak with Putin in Vienna on behalf of the united West, which is still agrees with American primacy. So then his position will look at least in equilibrium with the position of Russia.

In turn Putin can’t concede to Trump in Ukraine or Syria, and he can’t refuse an informal, but very effective union with China. Each of these points is an important knot, connecting together the network of global coordination created in recent years by Russia for the purpose of ensuring security. The loss of one link in the chain will affect in the most fatal way the efficiency of the others. In the worst case scenario – the domino effect is possible, and in the best one – a considerable decrease in the effectiveness of the system and a disbalance in the actions of allies is possible.

But, taking into account the sharp weakening of the American global positions in the first half of 2018, Russia doesn’t see any sense in general in discussing the possibility of any concessions. Only a compromise solution of problems, assuming that the US will leave the foreign countries that closely border Russia, as an exclusive sphere of Russian interests in which they impudently intruded about 20 years ago. It is after this that it will be possible to discuss trade and economic interests of Washington. Finally, the balancing of the American budget is impossible without balancing trade and the termination of the expensive aggressive foreign policy is in the common interests of the whole world.

The world is interested in helping the US overcome the most severe crisis in which they herded themselves into and reform the American economy, but only in exchange for the abandonment of an active military policy, a sharp decrease in the military budget, a reduction in the number of mobile expedition forces – including aircraft carrier groups, the re-organisation of the structure of the American Armed Forces in favour of an exclusively defensive position that allows to reliably protect the US from an invasion, but doesn’t allow to perform large-scale overseas operations.

As we understand, today the US still hasn’t ripened for such radical compromises. That’s why a possible meeting in Vienna is only the first step. The US already agreed to speak on the conditions of others, but still doesn’t agree to form a constructive agenda. And they will come to this decision. The main thing is that it isn’t too late for the American economy.

The Essential Saker II: Civilizational Choices and Geopolitics / The Russian challenge to the hegemony of the AngloZionist Empire

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33 Comments

I agree this meeting is only a first step, but it is important nonetheless. I still have some small hope that Trump has some room and desire to maneuver outside of the intrigues and manipulations of the Deep State, and I believe Putin also desires better relations with the USA.

I think he and Putin will like each other personally, and establishing some trust between them can only help matters. Now that the Meuller investigation is finally winding down without a shred of evidence of any “Russian collusion” between Putin and Trump, maybe the adults in the room can at last have a serious conversation about the important issues that face both countries.

Of course, this assumes that Trump still has some independence outside of the Neocon cabal that seems up to this point to have derailed his foreign policy as much or even more than it derailed Obama’s. I am praying that is the case.

Look at who he has surrounded himself with – the only real power that Trump possesses is to veto, or rather postpone further escalation with Russia, until another false flag happens in Syria, Ukraine or elsewhere. At best, Putin can buy some more time at this summit.

jon
I have to disagree. Trump is surrounded by neocons, helpless to curtail their power. He does as they tell him. Putin, on the other hand, has behind him Russian political institutions and the bulk of the country. Trump, under neocon directives, has made enemies in the world. Putin is gaining prestige by the month, backed by China, both of whom have created the BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Zone, the Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road, offering fair trade and full respect for the sovereign status of countries with whom they deal. Trump can offer sanctions, regime change and military intervention. Trump will meet with Putin. Nothing of any importance will be achieved, as Wall Street expects Trump to follow it’s imperial agenda.

Hi B.F.
I think Putin’s position is a bit more complicated than that. The Saker just wrote an article about the power politics being played at the highest levels in Russia: see “No 5th Column in the Kremlin? Think again!”

Trump has hugely disappointed me on more than one front, but I am hopeful that he is not so subservient to his Neocon handlers that at least some level of rapport can be achieved at this first meeting.

Regardless, I said I have a “small hope” of a good outcome from all of this, so I’m keeping my expectations pretty low. :)

jon
Again I have to disagree. Putin is in a far better situation then when he first came to power, when he inherited a mess left by Yeltsin. What he achieved domestically and internationally is incredible. Only somebody with superior abilities could have done all that.

The Saker writes brilliant articles. However, I think he jumped the gun after Putin’s election, criticizing Medvedev’s appointment. He has done it again. The impression is that he relied on questionable sources in Russia, probably controlled by the liberals.

I just wonder if you realize how stupid this “ad hominem by association” (with liberals of all things!!) is :-)
Use a some online translator and start reading the Russian press, and you will realize how laughable you statement is!
The Saker

It would have been wiser if The Saker waited a bit, analyzing the opinions of others. He has been criticized for falling into a trap set by liberals, who started promulgating perfidious propaganda that Putin has been placed under “liberal control”. No doub’t the liberals, backed by Western intelligence agencies, came with this “bright” idea looking at Trump and his control by neocons. As I have written before, the American mentality cannot be applied to Russia.

When it comes to the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting, I don’t expect much, if anything. Trump is been sent as an errand boy by the neocons, to see what he can extract from Putin. He will extract absolutely zero.

No point in trying to convey information to B.F. Although he has some excellent points he is ideological and can’t argue with his predetermined conclusion no matter how much information and facts you present. Removed. No attacking other commenters. Mod

G
Ha ha ha. I was not aware that I am “ideological”, bearing in mind I am not a member of any political party. And what “ideology” am I promulgating ? As for presenting “facts”, I read some of yours and have yet to be impressed. As for myself, I always present facts.

as above, no attacking other commenters – it breaks the moderation policy. Please both close down this personal conversation – any further will go to trash. Mod

What if Trump asks Putin to abandon the Iran nuclear agreement and when Putin refuses it tcauses more friction between them? And does the MSM really want us to believe that Putin wants to invade and occupy the Baltics and Poland? Insane! Also way hasn’t Mueller indicted any Russians for the email hacking of the DNC and John Podesta, what is he waiting for especially when the deep state would just love to indict more Russians?!

There should be a great deal of room to negotiate on Ukraine. Merkel was the hardliner on this topic. Her now inevitable doom means that civilized nations no longer have work around her craziness. Biden/Kerry family operatives within the U.S. State Dept. should be identified and isolated by now, preventing deep state interference.

India is now curtailing purchases of Iranian oil (1). Iran’s internal strife and failing economy are taking away it’s ability to threaten the region. Putin can ‘give’ ground on Syria by excluding the financially moribund Iran/Hezbollah. Trump can ‘give’ ground by accepting that Assad will remain in power. As both of these outcomes are inevitable, they really aren’t even concessions.

There probably will not be any big news out of this meeting. However, the future for cooperation between Christian Russia and the Christian U.S. looks bright and promising.

Trump is a creation of the deep state. Owned lock, stock and barrel by the rothschild faction headed by Wilbur Ross even before he announced. You got to be a special kind of stupid deplorable to believe Chump is not owned by the establishment ! Will Kissinger who’s advising Trump be present at the meetings ? The declining empire will continue to cook the books at the treasury, offload junk instruments to the arabi and try to rebalance at the expense of allies. If Trump mafia tactics fail to bring vassals to heel, it will be war and destruction in Europe.

July 16, day after close of World Cup, Helsinki, Finland, closer to Moscow than to Brussels or Washington.
Symbolic? (Finland was the first to offer itself as host ever since Trump was elected.)

Putin should not come to the US until the consulates are normalized, Russian property returned and diplomatic relations normalized.

All the other topics Ishchenko details for the US to transform itself will not happen in our lifetime. The US military-technology complex intends to rule the cosmos (seriously) not just the global affairs of mankind (the few left after they denude the planet of most humanity).

The US economy reformed? You have to end corruption of Congress, corruption of the high tech sectors by DARPA and other Agencies of the Tyranny called Government. Then you can sort out what sort of new capitalist-social welfare system would work. The stuff of theses for Ph.D.s, not very likely in the real world of Greed and Globalism.

Writing about this topic has finally found the limits to Ishchenko’s analytical expertise. He clearly doesn’t have a handle on the US, its ideologies, and the fever pitch of fear the leaders have of Russia, Putin and China. The Russophobia and Sinophobia is worse than the thermonuclear days of USSR.

He also has no insights into Trump.

I still hold him high, very high on Ukraine and domestic and historic things Russian. He’s one of my favorites.

To commentator G. We are here to discuss the ideas and events of the day not to disparage other commentators … your prior two comments posted as commentator ‘G’ have been sent to Saker for review … mod.

COOL That’s my birthday – usually the only things that have happened in history – on my birthday are terrible – wars and bombs – oh – and the Templars entered Jerusalem with Godfrey of Bouillon at the front – that’s cool too.

Anyway – Trump’s slowly getting done the things that he wanted to get done – but not in the way we all thought –

“The world press is being filled with noise about a meeting on the 15th of July between Putin and Trump in Vienna. The Kremlin neither confirms nor denies whether there is a meeting [at the time of writing this was true, however the Kremlin has since confirmed the there will be a meeting on July 16th – ed], and diplomats from both sides allegedly coordinate their positions.

July 15th is a date that is inconvenient for the Russian president. On this day, the closing of the FIFA World Cup is supposed to take place at 18:00, which the president of Russia will have to be present at. Of course, it is possible to fly early in the morning to Vienna, talk to Trump before midday, and to be already in Moscow by 18:00. But why makes things so tight? Especially as the Americans can deliberately try to prolong the meeting. Anyway, it is difficult to count on any arrangements. But if Putin is late for the closure of the 2018 World Cup because of a meeting with Trump, then this delay will emphasise the importance of the event for which all other major affairs were postponed.”

“Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump, who will hold a bilateral meeting in Helsinki on July 16, will stay in Finland for one day only, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto said Thursday.

“The presidents will be [in Finland] for one day but the logistics of the whole visit will be worked out,” Niinisto told reporters.”

The dating error was noted by an editor here (not the venue error, though), but the fact the author ran with this false dating and used it to imply Russia/Putin as weak and appeasing to u.s. demands comes across as suspiciously opportunistic, and not in a good way but the usual way.

Strikes my funnybone, that an event, where the existence of life – at least for the nearest future – on this planet can be decided, competes in importance with an other occurance, whereas some dozen denizens of this or another municipality chase after a ball filled with air for an hour or so…

This is the third article by Ischenko in the last week or so, which is fine, as he is the best at giving what could be called a pro-Kremlin view of things. Much more thoughtful and clever than folks like Starikov. It would be most unwise, however, to underestimate the quality of one’s opponents, whether they be Trump or the US State Department. Trump is trying to take a bad hand and play his cards to certain goals, such as putting far more pressure on Tehran or getting more favorable trade terms with China and the EU. This may well succeed. The US State Department has already managed to gain far more influence in Eastern Europe and, say, Armenia and Georgia than many pro-Russian commentators ever imagined possible. American military advisors near Kharkov and a 100% CIA-vetted SBU in Kiev are serious accomplishments, besides taking over such a high percentage of the mental space of Ukrainians.

And he tends to underplay how the pro-Western orientation and tendency of just about all Russian business and finance weakens Moscow’s position. His point in an earlier article about how Moscow is winning Berlin is an example of spinning this weakness. Germany and Turkey have certain mutual business interests, but they are limited when it comes to geopolitics. Russian oligarchs love to do business with London banks, but this doesn’t illustrate the Moscow is winning over London.

For years I have been watching the American performance on the international scene. In 1945 the US assumed a position of an imperial power, demanding global obedience. It has now been reduced to a wet chicken running around the yard, not knowing what it really has to do. It wants to maintain it’s imperial status, yet at the same time is paying the price for it, building up the biggest foreign and domestic debt in the world. The US foreign debt of 21 trillion dollars is constantly mentioned. However, the domestic debt, which is many times larger, is rarely mentioned. In fact analysts are not sure how large it is, giving conflicting figures. In 2014 some American university professors stated that the combined US debt was 222 trillion dollars. Worse, the dollar is printed in huge amounts backed by nothing, while countries are already turning away from using it.

The unfortunate impression is that Washington DC has no idea what it has to do. It is watching changes in the world, yet helpless to prevent them. It is still living in its delusional, imperial past, making enemies left, right and center, expecting countries to accept it’s imperial decrees. When Washington threatened EU firms with sanctions if they participated in the building of the Nord Stream – 2 gas pipeline, even I was astonished.

I am now reading comments by American analysts that a new civil war is possible, the only disagreement being if it will be a “soft” political war, or a “hot” military one of the type that was fought between 1861-1865. I think the time has passed for a “soft” civil war, short of a military coup d’etat in the country. The US is indeed heading for a very “hot” confrontation, especially when the dollar crashes.

Trump will meet Putin. They will talk and I don’t think too much will be achieved. Trump is coming to see if Putin will make concessions. Putin, of course, will not. Why should he. Washington has made enemies in Europe, Asia and in the Middle East. The Washington political establishment has become a prisoner of Wall Street’s imperial greed. It cannot shake off Wall Street. Russia, China and the EU know it. Yes, the EU is under Washington’s influence. However, the politicians and bureaucrats in the EU also have to answer to their domestic populations, especially to business and industrial interests. Nobody wants to be sacrificed for Wall Streets greed.

It is now quite apparent that the rest of the world is turning towards Russia and China, and both are playing the waiting game, waiting for the US to implode, after which Eurasia will assume it prime political and economic position, backed by Europe. I don’t see how this can be prevented, short of a wider war.

JJ
Well, as one analyst has stated, Russia and China are waiting for the US to implode, after which they will introduce gold backed currencies. Apparently Russia has 30.000 tonnes of gold and 5.000 tonnes of silver, while China also has 30.000 tonnes of gold. Both are buying more and preparing for the future. Gold will again rule, and not fiat currencies backed by nothing.

I don’t think Trump is in charge of the military or CIA. When Pompeo got in as DCIA he should have made a Finding about whether the Russians meddled in the 2016 election. He did nothing and the opposition keeps using brennan’s assessment for the Trump collusion theory , The anti-Russian rabid Zionist faction is still strong and denounce Trump for any “concessions” he makes. It may be useful for the principals to have a face to face, but the Zionists still want Assad out and Putin to give no support to Iran.

You guys don’t understand american politics AT ALL… Trump day by day is having power, all the pro-Trump candidates are winning in the republican party, his approval is skyrocketing, day by day he is becoming more free to do as he pleases, and one of these things is to defeat the Globalist power once and for all, and the help of Russia will accelerate the process, having Russia at your side will help but it is not that necessary

the USA is on the brink of bankruptcy, and can’t engage in an armament race with
Russia (yes you read it right, no hypersonic anything for USA and especially no space troops
for Trump – this was fake news only fools can believe in)

so, Putin will accept to halt development & deployment of future weapons systems, but
USA has to accept Russia’s sphere of influence & pay for breaking Ukraine (or make the vassals
pay for it!)

and Putin will accept to not stand in the way of Trump feasting on his vassals to prop up the failing
US economy

understand this: for Russia/China it is more important for the US to have a soft & controlled landing rather than a violent one (because nukes could fall into wrong hands) – the fate of US vassals (read: EU/Germany) is of no importance

cue in commenters with ‘but but muh white race… ” + what Rostislav said
“But then all their former allies competing in race each other to Moscow with offers of friendship, brotherhood, and eternal loyalty.” LOL @ pathetic western slimey creatures

All warfare is deception. When you are weak pretend you are strong and when strong pretend you are weak

The USA is not ready for war against peer competitors or even great regional powers (e.i. Iran & NK). By fighting with proxies, colour revolutions and drones the USA lost its edge. The failed TLAM attack against Syrian AD demonstrated how far back the West’s MIC technology has fallen into obsolescence. Aircraft Carrier and gunboat diplomacy is risky now against swarms of small boats armed with the newest ASM (i.e. failed Hodeidah port and airport siege by Saudi and Emirate coalition). The USA has lost the hypersonic missile race. They pilfered billions and time (time is money) in ineffectual Aegis Ashore ABM and THAAD installations in Poland and Romania.

Thus, Trump team has reneged on NATO and Free Trade freeloaders. Just like Russia rearmed by stealth after GWB reneged on the ABM Treaty, the USA is recalling the Manufacturing base back by imposing tariffs. It may not make economical sense but it makes National Security sense. In fact most tariffs were applied with this National Security justification. Trump also raised the non classified portion of the Pentagon budget to stratosferic levels not ever seen. For a country on the brink of bankruptcy this is in eye rolling category. These are war plans. If you are believing that these actions are prelude of peace i have a piece of real estate bridge to sell you.

The USA is retooling and preparing for war. They need a momentary detente with Russia to contain / confront China because the window of opportunity is closing fast.

In the meantime, Israel wants a grand bargain with the Palestinians, Jordan, Syria and even with Tirkey and Iran to build their Third Temple.

OBOR or simply BRI needs Peace to trade and grow economically. Thus, Peace seems to be hovering over the horizon.

Prophetically, it is stated that after Rumours of War ( WWI, WWII and Cold War) when they say Peace and Security then sudden destruction will come onto them.

Its more likely this summit will come to be regarded as a Molotov – Ribbentrop pact for the 21st Century

Both sides to need to buy time to prepare for a war that is inevitable and unavoidable.

Russia will not be fully re-armed until 2020, perhaps 2022, while the U.S needs to consolidate and draw down its overseas forces, re-arm and re-train in preparation for a great power war.

After decades fighting rice paddy farmers, banana croppers, Iraqi taxi drivers and afghan goat herders U.S forces have completely lost their Mojo. Their Navy cannot steer a ship without crashing into something, their Army cannot stop themselves raping the local people while their airforce is so desperate for pilots they are doubling their salaries and pensions to bribe them into not retiring.

Going up against such a determined adversary like Russia, even with the famed American ‘overmatch’ will still end badly for them at this stage.

A few years more are going to be needed to fully integrate the Aegis systems in eastern europe while backroom deals are being cut in the ‘Stans with various criminal factions to secrete weapons stashes and enable civil unrest in Russia soft underbelly.

The political and military forces that run America will never accept Russians as their social, political, moral or cultural equals, they view them as untermensch and will burn the earth to a cinder before they ever accept them as such.

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