Why the Ohio Governor's Race Is Critical for Obama

"I don't think you win elections by running away from your friends," declared
Ohio Governor Ted Strickland in a display of support for the embattled president. In the Ohio gubernatorial race, the
incumbent isn't choosing to distance himself from President Obama, but is
instead embracing him. It's a risky strategy, and one that his
Republican opponent, John Kasich, has welcomed. On Fox News with
Hannity last week Kasich noted
that Obama had visited his "twin" Strickland in Ohio eleven times in
order to derail his campaign. The reason for so many visits? "He knows if he loses Ohio he's in trouble," stated the Republican
at the time.

Ohio's electoral importance as a swing-state is constantly emphasized by operatives on
both sides of the aisle. And the resources poured into the
state's governor's race have transformed it into a de facto
proxy for Obama's 2012 relection bid. As of now, the effort that national and state-level Democrats have poured into the race doesn't
appear to have put Strickland over the top. Kasich maintains a slim 6 point lead going into the home stretch.

What a Strickland Victory Means For 2010: Proves That 'Embracing' the President Can WorkJeff Zeleny
at The New York Times outlines the potential gains if the governor can out a victory against his opponent. "The White House has
tried to play a more significant role in races for governor in other
battleground states, particularly Florida, but few Democrats have
welcomed Mr. Obama as warmly as Mr. Strickland has," writes Zeleny.
"Ohio began the year as a land of opportunity for Democrats to hold
their majority in the House, Senate and in key governorships. It has
become a field of uphill battles for candidates, embodying the
challenges facing the party across the country."

What He Has
Going For Him: 'The Best-Organized State Party in the Nation' "While
Strickland trails Republican John Kasich in public polls, he narrowly
leads in his own surveys and hopes to overcome the enthusiasm gap with
organizational energy," observes The Washington Post's E.J. Dionne.
"President Obama sees Ohio as a firewall in his 2012 reelection effort,
and having a friendly governor would be a major asset."

What Will Hurt: a 'Huge' Gender Gap The Wall Street Journal's Stephen Moore
reports that Democrats are flooding the airwaves with campaign
commercials, but Strickland is still trailing badly in a few key areas.
"The race may be harder to read than the polls suggest. For one thing,
surveys indicate a huge gender gap, with Mr. Kasich up 20 points among
men and down 10 points among women," he reports. "At the same time, a
big problem for the incumbent Mr. Strickland is that only 43% of voters
say they have a positive opinion of him." The Journal reporter also
notes that Kasich disputes the notion that the governor has a superior
organization: "We've got the most advanced ground troops and internet
savvy operation in the history of Ohio."

A Potential Difference-Maker: The 'Foreign Money' Charge Works in Ohio It's a "wildcard," admits The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder, but if it's played right the charge that "foreign money has financed many of the independent groups" (here'sthebackground)
could sway voters toward the Democrat even though the media "ridiculed" the
White House for pushing it. "In Ohio, where workers are upset that blue collar jobs
have been shipped overseas, where economic nationalism matters, such a
charge may have an impact. It could turn just enough Republicans away
from Kasich, and this could make all the difference for Strickland."

Why
It Matters For 2012: A 'Firewall' for Democrats Would Set the Stage for Obama's Reelection Keep in mind E.J. Dionne's "firewall" descriptor
as The Plain Dealer's Stephen Koff
emphasizes the importance of Ohio establishing the electoral "playing
field" for 2012. "Any time the governor and the president are of the
same political party, 'it probably means that they have a good ground
organization that they can work with' in the next presidential election,
said Joan McLean, professor of politics and government at Ohio Wesleyan
University." Thus, Obama's recent push to give a "big, high-visibility
pep rally" mere days before the election. "Clearly the Democrats think
there is something magical [in these rallies] that motivates voters."

This article is from the archive of our partner The Wire.

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