Wednesday, 25 October 2017

THE ECONOMICS OF BREXIT – A work-in-progress. 3.1 million jobs lost is the estimate; ...so far.

BREXIT WILL
BANKRUPT BRITAIN

6th DEC 2017 - UK has not done any Impact Assessments.

6 DEC 2017 - I have been waiting for 56 Sectorial Impact Assessments, professionally prepared for Parliament, to help me continue this paper. BUT, David Davis who is leading our negotiations, has just admitted that he lied to Parliament and has not carried out any such analyses. What the F*** are we paying these lazy, slovenly, arrogant Ministers and Members for? This comes after I have waited weeks for anyone in the UK political system to say that they have read the WTO rules (our last-ditch fall back for a NO DEAL) and have extrapolated the consequences of Britain switching to WTO rules (e.g. up to 47% tariffs on food).

AND it follows from Mrs May, yesterday, forgetting to communicate to Arlene Foster, the DUP leader (Northern Ireland) on whose votes May depends, the wording of the Northern Ireland Trade Border agreement. So the DUP have said NO and sabotaged the whole process. Day by day we are losing massive amounts of business and global credibility. 9 Dec 2017 - It is now rumoured that the UK has "made sufficient progress" on the 3 initial EU requirements (Citizenship, Irish Border & Money) to be allowed to begin talks about the 70,000 products and services we have to negotiate to arrive at a trade deal. Or - we could just stop the whole stupid, suicidal process and reclaim our existing Membership. All parties often repeat the mantra - "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed." We do not have to do this. What an immense waste of time, focus and huge amounts of money; taking us round a long winded circle to arrive back where we started, much the poorer.

All UK businesses will be furious and all those employed by UK businesses will be furious. What the hell are these overpaid clowns playing at.

27 NOV 2017. There is so much bad economic Brexit news for the UK pouring in that I'm going to pause the Jobs-Lost count (or equivalent pay reductions). Instead, I have become intrigued by the real motives of the powerful LEAVERS, who we should assume are otherwise intelligent men and women. The economic downside of the Brexit process (UK has just set aside £1 billion to boost the civil-servants involved) and of the disastrous long-term Brexit trade consequences, are so clear, even to the most blinkered and bigoted VIP Leavers, that the motives of the strident, hostile and increasingly desperate LEAVE campaigners must be questioned.

28 NOV 17 - UK Gov. still won't release the 58 Sector economic reports. Some frantic LEAVERs will have several mixed motives out of the list below:TAX-EVASION remains at the top of the list. The £2.5 trillion of UK tax-unpaid assets hidden in the world's 74 tax-havens will be repatriated and owners & advisers jailed if we stay in the EU. Britain continues it's decades long veto on initiatives that would break-open the secrecy. £2,500,000,000,000 buys a lot of friends in low places. INTERNATIONAL POWER PLAYS probably come next. Russia has tried to break up the European Union. The motive is simple - Divide & Conquer. The USA wants to dominate the terms of World Trade, so that we all play by their rules. The biggest rival to USA Trade Terms is the EU, which at 500 million, outguns the 350 million Americans. America wants "Free-Trade" US rules to force bleached-chicken down Euro-throats and killer neonicotinoids onto our fields to kill all the bees. China is less of a proselytiser. India is rising fast and sees the UK as a soft target; their hungry, clever, increasingly educated entrepreneurs want to own more of the UK's best businesses. We will drift off into a long sleep, blessed unconsciousness and a slow painless death. Stopping EU immigrants and trade opens more channels for the Indian sub-continent and the old Commonwealth countries. No global player will sign deals with Britain until we have sorted out our deals with the EU. No other nation is so utterly stupid to risk spurning the trade rules of the largest, richest market on Earth, ever, and side with a suicidal, has-been, deluded, lonely, failing island adrift in the North Atlantic. Maybe we would rescue some trading-clout and reputation if we built our own aircraft for our brand-new aircraft carriers, instead of buying at ludicrous prices from America. As it is, our £3 billion carriers have no planes - for many years ahead. They are non-aircraft carriers. Britain once led the world in designing and building jet-planes; the Americans put a stop to that.COMMERCIAL COMPETITION Now that the UK has put its tired old head on the chopping block and is tearfully pleading with nations to sign new trade deals on 70,000 products, every large operator has identified which parts of our carcass they can tear off and carry back to their dens. Many Europeans are taking our City-of-London business. The Japanese will move their UK manufacturing into Europe. The US, India and the Pacific Rim are gobbling up our film and entertainment business. Tory Ministers Dr Liam Fox, Jeremy Hunt and John-Spank-Me-Whittingdale are still determined to carve up the BBC and hand it on a plate to Murdoch; who Fox hopes will back his Leadership bids, And, of course, they want to break up the 1.4 million medics in our National Health Service and hand it complete with our taxpayers-cash to the US insurance industry; aided by other far-right Ministers like classical comedian Rees-Mogg, Kick-a-Cripple-for-Christmas-Duncan-Smith and a legion of less publicised self-serving politicos. Hidden amongst these chancers and gold prospectors is the 5th Columnist villain Farage, looking for his golden opportunity to work for Trump, and move to the gold plated NY tower. Or, maybe The Kremlin will take him. INDEPENDENCE PARTIES AND DISRUPTION In its weakened state, the United Kingdom has left itself open to many factions that want to break it up - and, as a wreckers' bonus, break-up the 60 years old European Union. Britain marginally voted LEAVE 52% to 48% - based on a massive, long PR campaign of gross lies and misdirection aimed at justifiably disgruntled unemployed, underemployed and ignored citizens. Now, all the different factions with private or public purpose are circling like vultures, waiting for the last signs of life before landing and pecking out our eyes and vital parts. These smaller opportunists include revengeful ex-colonies, insulted minorities, crazed religionists, citizens of the world who don't give a tinkers-cuss about Britain, and of course Demented Donald who is a LEAVER, friend of Farage and other disruptive elements and who sees that he can Make America Great Again, by charging 300% tariffs on our goods going into America. Welsh Nationalists, Scottish Nationalists, Surly Cornishmen, Grim Yorkshiremen who lost the Wars of The Roses, Communists, Republicans of all sorts, Gangsters, and Free-Trade-Pirates and Privateers, are all circling. There are many private reasons for helping to tip once Great Britain over the edge.Next time - we will start to list the main LEAVERS, who, with the help of the Kremlin, are ruining the UK.

*****

Brexit zealots believe the UK will be better-off after
Brexit, even after a Hard-Brexit, or indeed, after a No-Deal-Brexit that takes
us over "The Cliff Edge" onto World Trade Organisation WTO rules. These
enthusiasts are daring, entrepreneurial Brits, who fear nothing and see only
opportunities when change occurs.

But, I think the reality is that secret, tax-haven Brexit sponsors are
back-pedalling as fast as they can from EU rules to close tax-havens - which
would make them pay-tax. "Only the little people pay tax".
Tax-evaders are desperate to Leave and pay no tax - whatever the damage to the
UK. There are about £2.5 trillion (8 million jobs) of UK capital-flight assets
in the global tax-havens. It is all legally recoverable by HMRC.

MANAFORT INDICTMENT - The Full Text of tax-evasion
& money laundering. This action challenges the ridiculous PR crap,
repeatedly mouthed by the BBC and other media for many years, “Complex tax-avoidance; which is of course strictly legal” It ain’t
legal and never has been legal – see here, $70 million in fines and 60 years in
jail. You cannot make up your own fraudulent entries. Its crooked - not legal. It put Al
Capone in prison for many years. I include it here because it now, 8th Nov 17, seems clear that Russia might have funded both Trump's campaign and Brexit - both through tax-havens. Read-on.

Hence, they based their LEAVE campaign on blatant lies and
innuendo, to fool The People. e.g. That quitting the EU would pump £350 million per week into the National Health Service. Simple folk who do believe in fairies, voted Leave, hoping they would get
rid of Tory austerity, improve their impoverished dull lives, maybe get a job
on a Living Wage, and restore Great Britain to the era of King Arthur and The
Knights of the Round Table, with Sovereignty; having not the faintest clue what
it meant or means. Such a lie-based referendum should be declared illegal and null and
void. As it is, the 0.5% are trampling over the hopes and dreams of the 99.5% -
and once again stealing all their money. Who paid for this extremely determined
20 year campaign? The offshore media barons and tax-evaders paid. (plus - in now appears - The Kremlin). The spending power of the tax-evaders grows day-by-day while the majority get poorer and
weaker.

*****

15 NOV 17 - Leading Brexiter and lobbyist for high interest rates, John Redwood MP - explained. In addition to his salary and expenses as an MP, he "works" 75 hours a year for Charles-Stanley, a respected, old established London bank and stock-brokers, for £180,000 per annum. Is he on-shore or off-shore? Redwood's investment advice is to pull out of the UK. His Brexit sales pitch is that the UK will thrive. Mistake or lies? or a major conflict of interest?

*****

Trilogue agreement on beneficial ownership – Tuesday
14 November 2017

13 November 2017

Why is this important?

On Tuesday 14 November 2017, EU negotiators (the European
Commission, European Parliament and Council of EU Member States) are to continue negotiating on the Anti-Money Laundering Directive (AMLD):

·EU negotiations on the Anti-Money Laundering
Directive have been ongoing since 5 July 2016, when the European Commission
first proposed revisions
to AMLD4 in order to require all EU Member States to establish public registers
of beneficial ownership for companies and commercial trusts.

·A key decision could be made on whether the AMLD4
will be revised in order to introduce public registers of beneficial ownership
for companies and trusts in all EU Member States, or whether information in
these registers will only be made accessible to those with a ‘legitimate
interest’ (similar to the current rules in AMLD4).

·The European Parliament wants companies and trusts
to reveal the identities of the ultimate beneficial owners behind these
structures, whereas the Council only wants this information to be accessible to
those with a ‘legitimate interest’.

* ******

As Thomas Piketty has analysed in his book
CAPITAL, the 0.5% get richer while the 99.5% get poorer - day by day. This
Midas syndrome, dating from 1980, caused justifiable anger and mass support for
Farage's Brexit and for Trump's monstrous ego. Both of these madmen are
inciting the mob to violent rage.

This 15 year OECD chart shows that Britain is one of the worst offenders. And
"they" don't even pay tax on their selfish, unearned, ill-gotten
gains. Trump is intent on reducing distributive taxes - reducing tax on the
super-rich. Brexiters want the UK to be a tax-haven. Do we want Evolution or a
bloody Revolution?

Timid
REMAINERS, such as I, see disruption, disengagement from 500 million wealthy EU
consumers and eventually our national bankruptcy, unless we stop the Brexit
process - now.

Background to the EU. After World War 2, at Zurich University,
19 September 1946, Churchill said "I now sum up the propositions which are before you.
Our constant aim must be to build and fortify the United Nations Organisation.
Under and within that world concept we must re-create the European family in a
regional structure called, it may be, the United States of Europe,
and the first practical step will be to form a Council of Europe. If at first
all the States of Europe are not willing or able to join a union we must
nevertheless proceed to assemble and combine those who will and who can. The
salvation of the common people of every race and every land from war and
servitude must be established on solid foundations, and must be created by the
readiness of all men and women to die rather than to submit to tyranny."Dame Margaret Thatcher, when Prime
Minister, was keen on EU Membership.

Because the UK government hasn't yet begun to count the costs, this article can
only indicate the colossal irreversible damage to the UK economy.

2 NOV 2017 - UPDATE. UK Cabinet can't or won't publish
impact studies. Are they thicker or brighter than the "F*****g Moron"
running America? No wonder Defence Secretary Sir Michael Fallon used his "Knight-of-
the-lecherous-knee", the Westminster sex-pest scandal to resign; he's getting out before it all goes
tits-up. "I wasn't there and I know nothing."

Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire media mogul and former
mayor of New York, has said Brexit is the “single stupidest thing any country
has ever done” apart from the election of Donald Trump as US president.

A CONSERVATIVE MP (a senior officer of the Tory Party,
Chris Heaton-Harris) has written to every university in the UK requesting
that they reveal details of their teaching on Brexit, amid fears that
students are being brainwashed by Remain-supporting lecturers. (Daily Express 25th Oct 2017)

Celebrity comic, multi-millionaire MP Jacob
Rees-Mogg is stifling debate
by launching unsubstantiated personal attacks on forecasters at the Bank of
England and The Treasury, (threatening their jobs) who analyse the losses of
Brexit. His £1.6 B London & Singapore fund management firm Somerset Capital Management LLP had 2017 profits of £28 M, the directors drew £6 M (tax
paid?). Does it pay approx. £9 M in corp tax as it should? Is SOMERSET
CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED a connected
company? Is he another tax-dodging Brexiter anxious to quit the EU?

HANSARD: 20 DEC 2016 - Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg (North East
Somerset) (Con): May I note a hereditary interest in relation to the forces
of the great Rupert Murdoch and commend my right hon. Friend for her proper
even-handedness in dealing with this matter and her correct responses. May I
also note that we have seen the true voice of socialist envy that, thanks to
Rupert Murdoch, who risked his whole business on it in about 1990, Sky has
provided incredible choice to millions of people. It is amazingly popular.
Instead of decrying this wonderful achievement, we should be proud that it
happened in Britain and that this huge investment is potentially coming into
our nation. I hope that my right hon. Friend will bear that in mind and will
not fall tempted by the siren voices of socialist ingrates.

Gagging academics & universities and sacking
intellectuals worked for Hitler. Why not for Brexiters?

15 NOV 2017 - Rees-Mogg makes more unsubstantiated claims: "UK will get £135 billion boost from hard Brexit exit". But he has no evidence for this bizarre belief. Did he read it on Fox-News or Breibart, or in a Kremlin Tweet from the Russian disinformation units. Even the Daily Mail scoffs at his arithmetic.

2 DEC 17 - FASCISTS UNITE: Jacob Rees-Mogg met with Donald Trump’s former adviser Steve Bannon to discuss how the conservative movement can be victorious in elections in the UK, it has been reported. The meeting took place at a Mayfair hotel and Mr Rees-Mogg described Mr Bannon as “an interesting man to have met”, it is said. It is thought they spoke about US and UK politics and the former senior adviser to the President also met with former Ukip leader Nigel Farage. Mr Bannon, who is a self-described economic nationalist and populist, was believed to be Donald Trump’s right-hand man before he was forced out of the White House in August. He returned to work for the far-right news organisation Breitbart and his meetings in the UK were organised by Raheem Kassam, the editor of Breitbart London. “Brexit and the election of President Trump were inextricably linked, so the discussions focused on how we move forward with winning for the conservative movements on both sides of the pond,” Mr Kassam told the Guardian. “How you build movements, on the ground and digitally, and what Steve’s brand of economic nationalism – which puts the interests of ordinary people first – can do in the US and United Kingdom.”

I use the number of 500,000,000 souls, for the 27 remaining Member States, as a
post-Brexit total, taking out the 65 million Brits, then allowing 5 years for
negotiation, adding births, immigration and new member-states. The EU
trading-bloc is the largest, richest, most educated consumer-group - ever. The
UK is "doing a Ratner" - insulting its customers and
shooting itself in the foot.

These
are examples of what will impoverish us:

1.
Currency Devaluation. Since
the June 2016 Brexit Referendum, sterling has fallen 20%. The UK has a global
import bill that is £90 billion more than our exports. The devaluation cost
is £17 billion a year, (£17B / 32M households = £531 per
family) every year. And it could get worse. Our living costs are soaring. This
devaluation cost will not be recovered. It is money down the Brexit
drain.

JOBS:
£17,000,000,000 / £27,000 average UK pay = 629,000 lost jobs.

MORE TOURISTS: VisitBritain predicts tourists'
spending will surge by 14% this year (ACTUAL 2017 INCREASE IS 8% OR £872
MILLION). "Very often
people budget in their own currency. They're getting more pounds for their
money, and we can see their spend going up," says Patricia
Yates. Sterling has tumbled 16% against the euro since the June 2016
referendum, and has fallen 23% against the US dollar. Over the past two
years, the pound has dropped about 30% against the euro. £872 M /£27,000 =
32,296 extra jobs.

MORE EXPORTS - THE ECONOMIST: Following a period of stability in early 2017, sterling has once
again started to slide downwards. On August 29th it hit €1.08, its lowest level
against the euro since 2009. There remain few indications, however, that an
export boom is around the corner. It turns out that devaluing your way to
prosperity is not easy. Zero increase so far £0 = 0 new jobs.

2.
Isolation and competition. Some of our top exports are vulnerable to being easily picked
off by rivals and raiders.

The City,
must retain European Passporting Rights to keep its global position and trade
across Europe. We have until 29 March 2019 to get our act in order. Most banks
and even ancient Lloyds of London are already opening new EU centres and EU
trading companies. The City employs 454,700 souls and pays £70 billion UK tax
annually - year after year. Cities that want our brokers, banks and banks jobs,
include Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin and Madrid. All large EU cities will offer
incentives for our 1,000 years old City to relocate. That's £70 billion,
year after year, up for grabs. European cities will offer personal incentives
and easy access to the 500,000,000 EU Citizens - linking with, in turn, their
long established access to neighbouring markets in Russia, Asia and The Middle
and Far East.

Boeing
Aircraft Corporation has persuaded Trump to slap a 300% (three-times the price)
tariff on the UK's Bombardier aircraft. That means US customers will have
to pay 4 times what we ask - with 3/4 going to the US Treasury. No country will
buy our planes if we can't supply and maintain UK aircraft in America; they
will assume we have lost our reliability and world position.

In the same
week, BAE systems is putting 2,000 specialist engineers out of work, from
the Euro-Typhoon-Fighter project. And presumably our involvement in the £4
billion a year European Airbus Consortium, employing 6,000 in the UK with
110,000 associated UK jobs, will swiftly end. Europe doesn't want a partner who
spurns Europeans. Job
Losses 118,000

To keep Nissan in Britain, Brexiters have promised to pay any
increased tariffs on exports to the EU. WTO car, vehicle and parts tariff is
9.8% on, say, the average £19K Nissan car, is £1,862, applied to 500,000 EU
Nissan cars = a £931 million per year bill to UK Gov. Nissan, in the North-East, employs
8,000, which in turn supports another 32,000 supply chain jobs. Such UK
Government subsidies are unsustainable. How long before Trump and the EU slap
on a 300% tariff? Potential Job losses 40,000

15 Aug 2017 - Exports of goods and services to other EU countries
were worth £240 billion in 2016, while exports from
the rest of the EU to the UK were worth about £310 billion. ... Germany has the
biggest trade deficit with us— in 2015 it sold about £25 billion more to us
than we sold to it, according to the latest UK data.

Kwik-Stats - It is very complex. Let’s start by assuming
that a "No Deal" triggering trading on WTO rules and tariffs (see link) , replaces the current system of EU no-tariffs with
an average of, say, 10% on UK exports to the EU. Putting up our prices by 10%
will probably lose us at least 10% in sales. That is 10% x £240 billion = £24 billion = 888 thousand jobs, annually.

Equally, the EU will or, if the UK charges import tariffs,
might lose 10% of its sales to the UK, = £31 billion = 1.1 million jobs.
However, their lost jobs are not our problem. The UK will lose UK jobs on
internal distribution and servicing the imported goods and services. Using the
German Cars imports calculation below, where £486M of imports costs us 4,500 UK
jobs; will mean losing 64,000 jobs. We have accounted for German cars so,
say, 60,000 UK imports-handling jobs lost.

NO-DEAL means using the World Trade Organisation
tariffs and legal system - which are outside the sovereignty of UK courts. No
senior UK politician has yet claimed to have read, never mind comprehended and
calculated the impact of, the voluminous WTO rules and
tariffs. LEAVERS lobby for a leap in the dark with all our goods and services.
British Rulers spurn the need to actually read any books. We are being led by
lazy half-wits.

...By contrast, though the UK would save 0.4 per
cent of GDP, economists estimate no deal would lead to a loss of between 3 and
6 per cent of GDP. With good reason, the only country that currently trades
with the rest of the globe under World Trade Organisation rules is Mauritania.

10 NOV 17 - Britain's car industry, which has seen years of growth built on ... In one example, Honda said that a delay of as little as 15 minutes to each truck that passes through Dover would add £850,000 to its annual running costs. ... of tariffs would put the UK automotive industry for both vehicles and parts at an ... That represents more job losses: £850,000 /£27,000 = 31 jobs or equivalent reduced wages, for Each car exporter, say, multiply by 10 = 310 jobs lost

STOP BREXIT. This
article takes about 150 hours to write. If I /we had 1,000 hours, I could list
thousands of companies that will lose millions of jobs if Brexit proceeds. Most
industries predict substantial job losses:

12 Oct 2016
- Concern grows over price rises, import duties and staff retention from fallout of
... Food and drink is by far the largest manufacturing sector in the UK, ... what Brexit means for the industry, added: “Government and industry ...

21 Sep 2016
- The view from ONS of the emerging picture of the UK economy after the ... It uses a range of ONS data
including prices, trade, employment and retail ...
Some outside surveys carried out in the days and
weeks ... The small decline in July was across most manufacturing industries, ...macro@ons.gsi.gov.uk

18 Apr 2016
- Britain will be worse off by £4,300 a
year per household if Britain votes to leave ... HM Treasury analysis shows leaving EU
would cost
British households
... Both the services industry and advanced manufacturing are reliant on ...

Can we
assume that UK.Gov is adding up the numbers? NO. Will they tell us? Why
are they hiding the 58 industry reports they (we) have paid for?

The University of Sussex report that average household food bills
will increase by £500 a year if we quit withe a NO-DEAL. The Guardian's analysis of the report, which is
confirmed by The Resolution Foundation, is that the 2 million poorest
households will suffer an increase of £930 a year. There are about 27 million
households x £500 = £13.5 billion /£27,000 = 500,000 jobs equivalent.

3.
Sitting Stuck Duck: Until the UK gets its trading relationship with Europe into
contracts (we have about 70,000 different product and services contracts
agreed, over 60 years, with the EU at present); no major trading-bloc can
conclude new contracts with us. Because --- such new direct contracts with the
UK will have to be examined for conflicts with, for example, Canada's existing
contracts with the EU. Other nations or groups of nations are not rushing to
join the UK in a lemming-like suicide pact, over the cliff-edge. They might be
prepared to die for their own country - but are not prepared to die for ours.
This is not war; it is business.

Like Trump,
if we beg other OECD nations to make trade deals - they will sadly see the
opportunity to slap 300% tariffs on our goods and services. Standing alone in
the world, bruised, battered but unbowed, we won't have a leg to stand on, or a
friend to lean on.

Yes they do; along with Mercedes,
VW and others. Bloomberg estimates those sales represent 18,000 German jobs. A
lot to lose. But, without post-Brexit trade agreements we and Germany will
never unravel the maze of international parts imported and exported to make a
right-hand-drive BMW and supply the servicing network and employee
exchanges.

Tariff free EU free-markets, built from 1950 onwards, smooth most of these
problems - until Brexit happens. After Brexit, all the trans-border parts will
be subject to a range of tariffs and of VAT. The queues at Custom and Excise
borders will be long and tedious. The paper-work will be monumental. It will
take years and years and years to sort out. There are in the UK 150 BMW
showrooms & servicing - say, 30 employees at each = 4,500 jobs at risk.

Similarly
for medicines - and medical equipment - and medical staff. All licensed to work
in other countries. All such licenses will be cancelled and have to be reset -
worldwide. As with the shock 300% Trump tariff, all trading partners will seek
to drive hard bargains. The UK will fight back - and find imports we can charge
to those combative countries. Say, 20 years of detailed negotiations before we
can sell Anadin-Extra in Rome or Los Angeles. Or before we can supply fine
surgeons to foreign countries - and hire skilled people from overseas. Applications
from medics in Europe to work in the UK have dropped 80%. What chance will our
medics have to work in Europe?

Sam Woods, a deputy governor at the Bank, said City firms
would activate their Brexit contingency plans if there was no deal on a
transition period by Christmas which would mitigate the impact of a hard Brexit
in March 2019. Woods also repeated his warning of the strain being put on the
Bank’s ability to police the financial sector as a result of the changes firms
needed to make.

In an annual speech to an audience of financiers at
London’s Mansion House, Woods said City firms would become more complicated as
a result of the restructuring they would need to undertake."

6. We are hamstrung. Our own industries and businesses can wait no
longer. We are losing jobs daily to Europe due to the uncertainty. We will
either have to comply with EU or US trade protocols in order to export to those
two major blocs. Trump has shown that he will give us no favours. The EU is
becoming increasingly irritated at the juvenile "negotiating" antics
of Grinning David Davis, and Jester Boris Johnson - the UK's diplomatic team;
and irritated by the vague slogans trotted out by PM Theresa May. We are close
to the point where the EU will simply get bored and leave us to sink or swim,
as a once great, now minor player, on the world stage. We cannot do
deals with the other nations until our position with the EU is clear.

*****

Can we
think of any activity or industry that will escape these turbulent, vexed new-trade-deals?
No we can't. Each and every product and service is affected. Competitors will flood
our products with doubts. We will be tasked with proving and guaranteeing
the quality of lonely, independent Britain's offerings; as all Red-Tape, woven
over 70 years, is cut away. FREE HURRAH!

Will our civil servants please temporarily desist from mass suicide until I've finished this article - there might be a
way through to sanity. If not, we will hold a mass Hara-Kiri and ritual
immolation of public servants, on a bonfire of 70,000 ex-EU agreements, in
Whitehall.

I'm waiting
to hear from acclaimed Brexiters: Theresa May, John Redwood, David Davis, Boris-the-Clown,
Michael Gove, Iain Duncan-Smith, and Jeremy Corbyn (is he for or against
Brexit?) - and of course from Farage; all of whom will doubtless have fully
worked out tactics and strategies to solve all these 70,000 problems - in a
trice. Do you believe in fairies?

7.
Scotland sells Scotch,
Tweed, Salmon, Insurance & Penions, and it sells tourism. It will soon have
enough Clean Green Lean Cheap energy to supply the whole UK. It voted REMAIN.
The nation wants to stay in Europe - and in the United Kingdom. It cannot do
both. As the rapid decline of the UK becomes evident and irreversible, as our
industries drain away while all our ex-global partners cleave to the EU and/or
the USA, Scotland will see that we are a weak prop to depend on. Scotland will
quit the United Kingdom, to avoid being dragged under. About 19.5 million
people identify as Scottish:

8.
When Scotland leaves the UK, Northern Ireland will join southern Ireland and the EU. The Belfast Diaspora is estimated as 10
million. It too
will quit the UK. They do not want to go back 25 years into civil-war and have
a hard-border that blocks trade, commerce and kinship. We will lose Belfast.
Its future lies in Europe. The EU might be large enough to be able to persuade
Trump to drop the 300% import-duty on Belfast's Bombardier aeroplanes; the UK
has tried and failed to appease or mitigate his America First policy.

9.
Although 60% of Londoners voted REMAIN, it is unlikely that Greater London will make its own
pact with Europe. The conurbation, most of south-east England, will probably go
down with the ship. London is perhaps the ship. But, The City
of London, The Square Mile, has its own government and mayor and has been
independent for hundreds of years. It has done trade deals with most European
cities for centuries. Rather than lose its position in the world, The City is
likely to act as a City State and make its own trading terms with the EU.
Greater London, with 5 million families, could be saved by being pulled along
in its wake. Even the most fervent QUITTERS didn't vote for penury and
bankruptcy. Why should London follow the North East and Lincolnshire into
decades of poverty?

10.
PARTITION THE UK: Finally, the solution might be to remember the Partition of India in 1947; which created Pakistan for Muslims
and India for Hindus. We could split Great Britain's 63 million
population between LEAVE (Wales with Birmingham perhaps?) and REMAIN areas. The
BREXITERS could cast off all the burdensome chains of EU contracts and sail off
from Cardiff into the sunset to make buccaneering deals around the globe. The
REMAINERS could re-group, clustered around City-States and remain a member of
the European Union with all 70,000 trade protocols restored. The two regions,
both 30 million strong, could take time, decades even, to create mutually
acceptable trade deals. Will they both be nuclear powers? Will it require a
Customs Barrier? Peace in our Time.

MEASURING: How shall we price-up the
consequences? Employment statistics are collected often and, with great
caution, are almost reliable. I suggest we count jobs gained and jobs lost -
valued at the UK average wage of £27,000 a year. So, it becomes a head count of
primary, secondary and tertiary jobs.

THE DIVORCE BILL - Mel Cooper asks "How much?"

My understanding of the divorce payment is that the UK as
the 3rd largest Member and active participant has contractually
underwritten our Membership share of the costs of hundreds of projects that run
till at least 2020, and some, such as Airbus, science, education and medical
projects, which are long term. The partnership argument is that had we quit 5
years ago, the EU would have formed smaller projects without relying on our
cash-input. Some of those project funds would have been spent in the UK. So
arriving at a precise settlement is complicated – but not unsolvable. It seems
to be agreed by all that we do have obligations to pay, as we are quitting in
the middle of the current 2014-20 budget period – but how much? Amounts
mentioned range from Euro15B to Euro100B. If we pay our annual net Euro9B for
2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 – that’s Euro36 billion. But the major long term
projects we will quit, will double or treble the amount. Best guess is
$70 Billion.

The total
EU Budget for 2014-20 is Euro1,087,197,000,000
(euro1.1 trillion). Member States pay in about 1% of their GDP.

Mid-term review/revision of the Multiannual financial
framework 2014-2020. 'I am proud that the EU budget has
allowed us to meet political priorities, to ensure ...

(EUR million - current prices)

COMMITMENT APPROPRIATIONS

2017

Total
2014-20

1. Smart and Inclusive Growth

73 512

513 563

1a: Competitiveness for growth and jobs

19 925

142 130

1b: Economic, social and territorial cohesion

53 587

371 433

2. Sustainable Growth: Natural Resources

60 191

420 034

of which: Market related expenditure and direct payments

44 146

308 734

3. Security and citizenship

2 578

17 725

4. Global Europe

9 432

66 262

5. Administration

9 918

69 584

of which: Administrative expenditure of the institutions

8 007

56 224

6. Compensations

0

29

TOTAL COMMITMENT APPROPRIATIONS

155 631

1 087 197

as a percentage of GNI

1.04%

1.03%

TOTAL PAYMENT APPROPRIATIONS

142 906

1 026 287

as a percentage of GNI

0.95%

0.98%

Margin available

0.28%

0.24%

Own Resources Ceiling as a percentage of GNI

1.23%

1.22%

MAY BE YES MAY BE NO - BREXIT STALLS - Media and Moguls
behind Brexit. I believe that the main driver for these super-rich offshore
villains is to continue to evade tax. There is £2 to £3 trillion of UK assets
hidden in tax-havens - which could be repatriated if HMRC cared to collect it.

Nick Clegg also lists in How to Stop Brexit the names of the rich men
behind the scenes. He recommends promoting Sir John Major to lead us out of the
dark quagmire, to the sunny uplands of EU cooperation. Clegg fails to mention
the tax-haven hoards; which would pay all our deficits and reverse Tory
austerity.

Brexit could trigger next financial
crisis,
warns London Stock Exchange chief - 18th Oct 17 - Mr Rolet has said that Brexit
could cost the City of London up to 230,000 jobs if the Government fails to
provide a clear plan for post-Brexit operations

Brexit will be 'like the Blitz', OECD chief tells UK - 17th Oct 17
- Britain faces a ‘bumpy road
ahead’ but must ‘stay calm and carry on’, the head of the influential
organisation warns

Following intensified media scrutiny after his initial
donation to UKIP, it emerged that Banks was involved in mining in southern
Africa and had connections to Belize. Banks also has connections to companies
based in Gibraltar and the Isle of Man, and close connections with family
members of the Belizean Prime Minister.

[34] However, following remarks made
by The
Thick of It creator Armando Iannucci on BBC One's Question Time programme, Banks denied owning a company in Belize
or seeking to avoid UK tax "via any device". Describing the comments
as "clearly defamatory", he threatened legal action towards Iannucci
if he did not get an apology within a week.[61][needs update]

Asked if his companies paid full corporation tax, Banks
"I paid over £2.5m of income tax last year ... My insurance business, like
a lot of them, is based in Gibraltar but I've got UK businesses as well that
deal with customers and pay tax like everyone else."[34] One of the UK businesses of
which Banks is director, Rock Services Ltd, had a turnover of £19.7m last year
and paid corporation tax of £12,000. The company deducted £19.6m in
"administrative expenses", and the main activity appears to be
"recharge of goods and services" with Southern Rock Insurance
Company.[34] Southern Rock Insurance states
on its website that it underwrites policies for the customers of GoSkippy.com,
which is run by Banks. Because it is based in Gibraltar, there is little information
available on it.

Rock Services and Southern Rock Insurance's ultimate
holding company is Rock Holdings Ltd, a company based on the Isle of Man.[34] Banks has also been a
"substantial" shareholder in STM Fidecs, of which Leave.EU is a
subsidiary; the company claims to be specialising in "international wealth
protection", maximising tax efficiencies for entrepreneurs and expatriates
and of "structuring international groups, particularly separating and
relocating intellectual property and treasury functions to low- or no-tax
jurisdictions".[62]

Following the release of the Panama Papers, The Guardian wrote that "Banks, who has
given Ukip more than £1m and is spearheading the anti-EU referendum campaign,
appears as the shareholder of a BVI company called PRI Holdings Limited. Shares
from PRI were also transferred to Elizabeth Bilney, the chief executive of
Leave.EU. PRI Holdings is in turn the sole shareholder of African Strategic
Resources Limited, which is a British Virgin Islands company managed in
Gibraltar."[63

My question today is - where has that little rat
Farage gone to ground. Who pushed him onto our TV screens and front-pages for
12 years? There must be a major PR company behind the campaign. Who in the BBC
kept and keeps inviting this 5th columnist onto political opinion programmes?
Will he retire on a generous pension to Moscow, St Petersburg or Trump Tower as
Britain goes bust over Brexit and declines into penury? Is Farage another
offshore-no-tax-villain?

And NOW! The International
Consortium of Investigative Journalists ICIJ has published the Paradise Papers in November 2017. When will OECD
nations collect all the back-taxes from the several hundred thousand cheating
crooks cited in these papers, in the Panama Papers, in the Cyprus Bank scandal
and in the Zurich HSBC accounts – and the rest? 99% of the $32 trillion
offshore capital has been siphoned from rich OECD countries, using phoney,
made-up, fraudulent, criminal accounting. Repatriate it all and jail the crooks
and their enablers.

Manafort offshore - Panama Papers - tax and
wire-fraud - funny money.

Like the gangster Al Capone, jailed not for violence and murder but for
tax-fraud, Paul Manafort and friends are being threatened with 30 to 60 years
in prison and confiscation of all the capital (est. $70 million) laundered
through funny-money offshore companies, used to distort the US election and to
evade tax on foreign fees. Manafort's web of Ukrainian/Russian "fees"
and companies has been tracked via the Panama Papers; and all his bank
transactions - in his own, his family's and false names - have been tracked, I
guess via Homeland Security, CIA, FBI etc. Government spies can trace ALL
business transactions, ALL telecoms and ALL secret assignments. Ask Edward Snowden how such universal searches, spanning decades, are
done. There is no hiding place.

MANAFORT INDICTMENT - The Full Text. The
confiscations of money and houses are in the last few pages. Manafort's web of
intrigue makes Arron Bank's complicated offshore maze look like a childish (and
perhaps a blameless) game.

The champion maze makers remain, of course, ENRON - who stole billions of
dollars, went bust, went to prison and had the world's top auditors, Arthur
Andersen, (now Accenture) struck-off. Despite one of the world's most
insistent, long and expensive PR campaigns, the reassuring, happy media
soundbite "...complex tax-avoidance - which is of course
completely legal" was and is wrong advice. Fiddling the books,
making up funny-money invoices and baseless charges, was and is a crime. The
Manafort Indictment will change the tax-free world of offshore loot. Wait for
the knock on the door as major governments realise how much they can collect in
back-taxes, and fix their deficits.

I believe that BREXIT is driven by such offshore tax-evaders, desperate to
avoid, or evade, the closing net of EU tax and bank laws.

LETTER TO THE GUARDIAN 7 NOV 17 - TAX-LAW: “Outrage
as scale of tax avoidance by global elite is laid bare” – Guardian 7 Nov 17)
The Guardian, Panorama and the ICIJ could help ensure tax-collection and
capital-flight repatriation of £2.5 trillion for the UK and $30 trillion to the
other countries of origin, by pressing governments to apply existing tax-law.
In all OECD countries these 100 year old laws, which apply to ordinary
tax-payers, governing tax-allowances on transactions include: (1) NORMAL COMMERCIAL PRICES (2) AT ARMS
LENGTH (3) WHOLLY NECESSARY FOR THE BUSINESS (4) NOT DEVISED TO REDUCE TAX. Applying
these legal tests would set aside all “complex tax avoidance” which is simply
clumsy, idiotic fraudulent accounting and conspiracy. What the taxes should be
levied on are the profits and gains made in the tax-region (e.g. Apple sales in
the UK – BBC fees paid to stars, subject to PAYE) – regardless of the
nonsensical Group Accounts, funny-money charges and asset transfers. We are
asked to believe, for example, that Lord Ashcroft gave-up £200 million to
hapless Trustees. Do you believe in Fairies? It is time to grow up. The UK
Cabinet has sacked most of our intelligent tax-investigators with the skills
and diligence to prove tax-illegality, so we should simply issue assessments
from 1980 (the big bang) to date, confiscate the assets, and have the non-tax-payers
prove that they don’t owe the taxes. A 500 person fully resourced unit of
tax-inspectors should be formed, today, to repatriate the UK’s £2.5 trillion
(i.e. 2 years Budget – or 8 million good jobs). First – list and tax all UK
VIPs who use tax-havens, starting with MPs and the judiciary.

Noel
Hodson - Director

Tax
Reconciliations, Oxford UK,

Nowhere to hide? 16 NOV 2017. If the lead Brexiters, including politicians and media owners, are motivated by tax-evasion, they are likely to be unmasked. ICIJ this week have ripped the fraudulent disguises from more guilty faces, being 556,000 more funny-money Trusts set up by Asiaciti, which is an offshore advice network founded by an Australian. This adds to the publication of 13.4 million Paradise Papers, millions of Panama Papers, thousands of Lichenstein corporate "industrial scale" tax-evasion, 7,000 clients of HSBC Zurich, and of hundreds of other "wealth managers" who hide assets from tax-collectors. The USA is investigating the Trump-Team collusion with the Kremlin. EU authorities are investigating Farage and Co's links - on suspicion that his Brexit campaign is Russian funded (via Arron Banks - see above) and aided by the Kremlin Troll Factory, churning out tens of thousands of false-news items and false Twitter endorsements. Much of the funds for these activities are channelled through Russian favoured Cyprus banks. No wonder that the drivers of the Leave campaign are getting desperate, as the EU, USA and now even the perfidious servants of the tax-evading UK, are closing in on their criminal activities. The (offshore tax-free un-British) owners of the Telegraph are stirring up violence against noted Remain MPs; tactics employed by the Nazis. I say "criminal activities", contrary to all UK media trotting out the PR campaign message for 2 decades, the mantra "tax-avoidance, which is of course strictly legal", because with 40 years professional experience I know that the bookkeeping transactions, the faux legal contracts, the contrived invoices with false prices, management charges, the false valuations of assets, the inflated "interest" on loans, the dummy directors, the signed declarations, bent audits, and the "reasons" given for huge cash and asset transfers, are all illegal in tax law, in all OECD countries where the wealth originates. Al Capone was jailed for such offences - and Paul Manafort is facing 30 to 60 years in jail for fiddling the books. Fraudulent conspiracy, such as is required to transfer assets to tax-havens and hide the subsequent income, is still a major crime. Whatever Brexiter-tax-evaders want to believe.

ICIJ 16 NOV 2017 : Offshore trusts are often inscrutable legal instruments with blurred official ownership. The details are rarely a matter of public record. Trusts allow the publicity-shy to act out of sight of creditors, ex-spouses or courts.

Asiaciti has specialized in establishing trusts in Samoa and the Cook Islands, nations of 200,000 and 11,000 people, respectively. Within 24 hours and for less than $300, a client could buy “ ‘state of the art’ offshore products” to build and preserve wealth, according to an archived version of Asiaciti’s website.LETTER TO THE GUARDIAN 24 NOV 2017

The
Guardian’s Head of Investigations, Nick Hopkins, walks into the
tax-evasion-PR-industry sucker punch. (Ministers can’t keep turning a blind eye
to tax avoidance – Guardian 24 Nov 17). He writes “…that currently legal
tax-avoidance by certain companies and individuals…” My 45 years in
tax-accountancy, including 10 years on back-duty-cases, tells me that all asset
transfers from the UK to tax-shelters break 100+ year old laws tax-allowances: (1) AT NORMAL COMMERCIAL PRICES (2) AT
ARMS LENGTH (3) WHOLLY NECESSARY FOR THE BUSINESS (4) NOT DEVISED TO REDUCE
TAX. The devil is in the detail. We are asked to believe, for example,
that Lord Ashcroft gave-up £200 million to hapless offshore Trustees. Do you
believe in Fairies? People who have exported profits and capital since 1980 are
desperate to assert that they have acted legally. They and their advisers fear
confiscation and prison. Imagine you sell 1,000 Jaguars at £40,000 (£40M),
making £4,000 (£4M) per car in the UK. To “avoid” tax you send yourself an
invoice from Panama for £4M, wiping out the taxable profit – and you transfer
all the sales cash £40M. It is illegal to send fraudulent invoices to yourself,
however “complex” the route. (Not at arms-length – Devised to reduce tax). If
you doubt this, try sending yourself a tax-haven invoice that wipes out your UK
salary for tax-purposes. You might be lucky; your accountants may provide a
prison-visiting service. The Treasury loses £4M in tax, and the nation loses
£40M in capital. More than £2.5 trillion of UK tax-unpaid assets sit in
tax-havens ($32 trillion globally) – which is why the nation is bust, with
rough-sleepers, no cheap homes, on food-banks, potholed roads, underpaid
nurses, low productivity and with a grotesquely overpaid tax-free 0.5% at the
top.

A 500 person fully resourced unit of
tax-inspectors should be formed, today, to repatriate the UK’s £2.5 trillion
(i.e. 2 years Budget – or 8 million good jobs). First – list and tax all UK
VIPs who use tax-havens, starting with MPs, media-figures and the judiciary.

FASCISTS RISING 27 NOV 2017.

BREXIT LAW

The Politico article of Oct 23rdentitled “5
reasons why no deal could mean no Brexit” published in Languedoc Living (www.languedocliving.com), says
that a spectre is hanging over Westminster, threatening “no deal, no
Brexit”.

There is a spectre, but it isn't hanging over Westminster.

Subsequent developments - the amendments tabled to the EU
(Withdrawal) Bill and parliamentary debate on them have shown this. The
spectre is hovering over the UK, rising out of Whitehall, considering
when and how to suck the soul out of the country. Its divisive work is
well under way.

The government is attempting to fool the UK (and to do the
same to Parliament) into believing that it is for Theresa May and her
acolytes to allow
Parliament to have a meaningful vote on the exit deal, and indeed to
control whether Parliament is allowed to
decide if the UK leaves the EU or stays in.

It is not for the government to say what Parliament is allowed to do.

Although Theresa May & Co are apparently working hard
to make it otherwise (see below), the UK is still a democratic
parliamentary democracy.

Article 50 says that the decision to leave has to be in
accordance with the leaving country's constitutional requirements. That
means that a decision to leave must be made by Parliament, NOT by the
government. The court proceedings in which The People's Challenge was involved forced the
government to put the decision to trigger article 50 to the Parliamentary
vote.

If the government tries to take the final “Leave” decision
by itself, it will not be in accordance with the UK's constitutional
requirements. It will not be valid.

Furthermore, the vote in Parliament has to be about a
known quantity in terms of a deal, or indeed the absence of one. This is
part of what a “meaningful vote” is. Parliament cannot be required to
vote on a deal which is not known, nor can it vote after the fact.

Thus it is not possible for the UK to “fall off the cliff”
at the end of the Brexit negotiations – Parliament would have to push it.
And if Parliament refused to do this, Article 50 would automatically
lapse, and the UK would revert to the status
quo ante, i.e. it would remain in the EU on the existing
terms until such time as it decided to do otherwise. See the “Three Knights Opinion” for a fuller explanation of
Parliament's role.

Also, the Members of both Houses take an oath before
taking their seats to act in the best interests of the country (see para III-6 of the MPs Handbook) . Thus they are
sworn to take careful interest in all the information emerging on the
horrendous complexity of an orderly exit from the EU, the ever-mounting
costs involved and the chances of retaining the elements (Single Market
and Customs Union membership, for example) the UK wants and needs.

Brexiters keep pushing the idea that Brexit “must” happen,
that if not there will be “revolution”.

But facts are facts: the costs of Brexit are going up all
the time, the economic impact is already being felt, and the most significant
benefits talked about by Brexit referendum campaigners evaporated almost
immediately after the result. For example, far from there being “an extra
£350M a week for the NHS” post-Brexit, people are now saying that the UK
can have Brexit or the NHS, but not both.

Given the picture which is emerging, there is a need to
focus on why Brexit continues to be seen as a good idea. We now know that
it will cost a vast amount of money, we will lose many things we want to
keep, and not gain things we were promised, like that NHS money,
like being a global player in our own right with snazzy new trade
deals worldwide. Even at the stage when we can try for them, the world is
going to be far more interested in talking to the EU.

That's what'll happen, and why should we “get over it” and
“deal with it”, unless leaving the EU actually is “What is Best for the
UK”? “Because the referendum said so” is not the entirety of the answer.

But there's a real threat of another cost that's even
higher. It's a threat to UK democracy. Before you dismiss this as
scaremongering, please read on.

Part of the government's proposed legislation to prepare
for Brexit involves obtaining the so-called “Henry VIII powers” and
deleting the Charter of Fundamental Rights.

What are these two elements, and why are they so
dangerous?

The parliamentary website gives this definition of Henry
VIII powers:

“The Government sometimes adds this provision to a
Bill to enable the Government to repeal or amend it after it has
become an Act of Parliament. The provision enables primary legislation to
be amended or repealed by subordinate legislation with or without further
parliamentary scrutiny.

Such provisions are known as Henry VIII clauses, so named
from the Statute of Proclamations 1539 which gave King Henry VIII power
to legislate by proclamation.”

But the Henry VIII powers sought in the EU (Withdrawal)
Bill enable the government to amend/repeal not only that Bill, but any and all legislation
including the Acts of Parliament which establish our democratic rights
and Parliament's Sovereignty.

This is clearly not the same as what the Government
“sometimes” does as explained above.

For instance, the government could use the powers in this
Bill to extend the period between General Elections or amend the
authority, and restrictions placed on that authority, which Parliament
has given the government in relation to the UK leaving the EU.

Next, it is not
necessary to delete the Charter of Fundamental Rights in order to
transpose EU-derived legislation into standalone UK law. The most cursory
of sanity checks confirms this.

The only conceivable reason for deleting the Charter is to
remove the protections it gives. The government can then, without
parliamentary supervision and control, reduce or remove legislative and
regulatory provisions which protect ordinary citizens.

As Harriet Harman said (while she was talking about
women's rights, her point is valid across the piece), “You should never
be complacent about rights which have been really hard-won. There are
always people who want to turn the clock back”.

So why is this combination of Henry VIII powers and loss
of fundamental rights so dangerous and sinister?

Deleting the Charter of Fundamental Rights from the UK's
Statute Book removes basic protections for ordinary citizens. This
includes essential elements needed to protect some of the most vulnerable
people in our society.

Once that happens, those seeking to tear down hard-won
legislation and regulation protecting us from discrimination on the basis
of race, colour, creed or gender can do so without parliamentary
oversight and control, simply by using the Henry VIII powers contained in
the Bill.

They can even roll back the Bill of Rights of 1689, where
(for example) regular parliaments, free elections, and freedom of
speech in Parliament are enshrined, to suit the government's own
interest. In effect they can impose an elected (at least in the first
instance) autocracy.

This is a power-grab of monumental proportions.

The government says it won't abuse the powers it seeks to
grab, but why is it trying to grab them? Given the government's penchant
for secrecy and sleight of hand, why should any of us rely on its
assurances?

Furthermore, future governments could retain these powers
and would not be bound by any assurances given by individuals in the
present government as to how they are to be used.

This government is getting into the habit of trying to
take these powers: the proposed Trade Bill relies on extensive use of
Henry VIII as well. Being outside the EU without a Charter of Fundamental
Rights also gives the ability to trade freely with countries not unduly
concerned with fundamental rights.

No prizes for predicting whether it will be after Henry
VIII powers in the other Brexit-related Bills. But if it once obtains
them in the form they take in the EU (Withdrawal) Bill, it's “game over”
– the government can ride roughshod as and where it chooses though the
whole body of UK legislation.

We not only live in interesting times, they are also very
disturbing times for anybody who is concerned about the state of
democracy in the UK.

The imbalance of power between the UK's Sovereign
Parliament and the appointed government, which the latter is trying
to reinforce, represents major interference with the checks and balances
in the UK system evolved over many centuries of (often painful)
experience .

Even something as important as Brexit is only the tip of a
“Titanic” iceberg.

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