politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take Khan to the bank

The tip I’m about to give is not particularly exciting, or thrilling and it certainly won’t get you rich overnight seeing as the potential payday in question is top price 2-5 and 542 days away at the time of writing this article.

Comments

But as for your last line: if a Labour leadership contest comes up before 2020, is there a small but non-zero chance he'd throw his hat into the ring ala Boris and leave the mayoralty at, or before, the end of his term?

Listening to the boxing, not sure how a man knocked down twice can be so certain to be ahead..

Why watch or listen to two people fighting? It's barbaric.

If I wanted to watch that sort of entertainment than I'd just go around Kate Osamor's house...

What price Kate for Mayor of London? And then Foreign Secretary?

Given Labour has an anti-Semite at its head, it wouldn't surprise me if they chose a violent, selfish and nasty person for such a position ...

And you do not condemn the Conservatives who actually did so?

Are you referring to Zac? If so, I don't think he's ever threatened a journalist. Or thrown water over one. Or behaved in quite the way Osamor has.

Boris is a very different matter. And yes, I do condemn him over the Guppy mess. I quite like him, but he should be nowhere near the levers of power - let him keep on submitting ghostwritten columns as a journalist ...

I know you say you're not a Labour member, but you certainly seem keen to 'look, squirrel!' whenever they're criticised ...

Listening to the boxing, not sure how a man knocked down twice can be so certain to be ahead..

Why watch or listen to two people fighting? It's barbaric.

If I wanted to watch that sort of entertainment than I'd just go around Kate Osamor's house...

What price Kate for Mayor of London? And then Foreign Secretary?

Given Labour has an anti-Semite at its head, it wouldn't surprise me if they chose a violent, selfish and nasty person for such a position ...

And you do not condemn the Conservatives who actually did so?

Are you referring to Zac? If so, I don't think he's ever threatened a journalist. Or thrown water over one. Or behaved in quite the way Osamor has.

Boris is a very different matter. And yes, I do condemn him over the Guppy mess. I quite like him, but he should be nowhere near the levers of power - let him keep on submitting ghostwritten columns as a journalist ...

I know you say you're not a Labour member, but you certainly seem keen to 'look, squirrel!' whenever they're criticised ...

Not at all. I'm not Labour, or any party, just a punter. And as I posted earlier, the betting angle here is to lay Boris because he is vulnerable on issues the Conservatives attack Labour for. Including this one.

Listening to the boxing, not sure how a man knocked down twice can be so certain to be ahead..

Why watch or listen to two people fighting? It's barbaric.

If I wanted to watch that sort of entertainment than I'd just go around Kate Osamor's house...

What price Kate for Mayor of London? And then Foreign Secretary?

Given Labour has an anti-Semite at its head, it wouldn't surprise me if they chose a violent, selfish and nasty person for such a position ...

And you do not condemn the Conservatives who actually did so?

Are you referring to Zac? If so, I don't think he's ever threatened a journalist. Or thrown water over one. Or behaved in quite the way Osamor has.

Boris is a very different matter. And yes, I do condemn him over the Guppy mess. I quite like him, but he should be nowhere near the levers of power - let him keep on submitting ghostwritten columns as a journalist ...

I know you say you're not a Labour member, but you certainly seem keen to 'look, squirrel!' whenever they're criticised ...

Not at all. I'm not Labour, or any party, just a punter. And as I posted earlier, the betting angle here is to lay Boris because he is vulnerable on issues the Conservatives attack Labour for. Including this one.

Thanks for the kind offer, but I won't 'lay' Boris. He's just not my type.

But look at your reaction to my post: it's typical 'look, squirrel!'. Someone criticises Labour, and you go on about how evil the Conservatives are. Every time ...

Listening to the boxing, not sure how a man knocked down twice can be so certain to be ahead..

Why watch or listen to two people fighting? It's barbaric.

If I wanted to watch that sort of entertainment than I'd just go around Kate Osamor's house...

What price Kate for Mayor of London? And then Foreign Secretary?

Given Labour has an anti-Semite at its head, it wouldn't surprise me if they chose a violent, selfish and nasty person for such a position ...

And you do not condemn the Conservatives who actually did so?

Are you referring to Zac? If so, I don't think he's ever threatened a journalist. Or thrown water over one. Or behaved in quite the way Osamor has.

Boris is a very different matter. And yes, I do condemn him over the Guppy mess. I quite like him, but he should be nowhere near the levers of power - let him keep on submitting ghostwritten columns as a journalist ...

I know you say you're not a Labour member, but you certainly seem keen to 'look, squirrel!' whenever they're criticised ...

Not at all. I'm not Labour, or any party, just a punter. And as I posted earlier, the betting angle here is to lay Boris because he is vulnerable on issues the Conservatives attack Labour for. Including this one.

Thanks for the kind offer, but I won't 'lay' Boris. He's just not my type.

But look at your reaction to my post: it's typical 'look, squirrel!'. Someone criticises Labour, and you go on about how evil the Conservatives are. Every time ...

Reminding people the Conservatives have form on this exact point, and pointing out a betting angle, is not "look squirrel".

ETA I think we should let this rest. We have both made our points and this sort of tit-for-tat can spoil the site if extended.

Listening to the boxing, not sure how a man knocked down twice can be so certain to be ahead..

Why watch or listen to two people fighting? It's barbaric.

If I wanted to watch that sort of entertainment than I'd just go around Kate Osamor's house...

What price Kate for Mayor of London? And then Foreign Secretary?

Given Labour has an anti-Semite at its head, it wouldn't surprise me if they chose a violent, selfish and nasty person for such a position ...

And you do not condemn the Conservatives who actually did so?

Are you referring to Zac? If so, I don't think he's ever threatened a journalist. Or thrown water over one. Or behaved in quite the way Osamor has.

Boris is a very different matter. And yes, I do condemn him over the Guppy mess. I quite like him, but he should be nowhere near the levers of power - let him keep on submitting ghostwritten columns as a journalist ...

I know you say you're not a Labour member, but you certainly seem keen to 'look, squirrel!' whenever they're criticised ...

Not at all. I'm not Labour, or any party, just a punter. And as I posted earlier, the betting angle here is to lay Boris because he is vulnerable on issues the Conservatives attack Labour for. Including this one.

Thanks for the kind offer, but I won't 'lay' Boris. He's just not my type.

But look at your reaction to my post: it's typical 'look, squirrel!'. Someone criticises Labour, and you go on about how evil the Conservatives are. Every time ...

Reminding people the Conservatives have form on this exact point, and pointing out a betting angle, is not "look squirrel".

You response was not a betting post, as it did not refer to anyone likely to be candidate for the Conservatives.

Listening to the boxing, not sure how a man knocked down twice can be so certain to be ahead..

Why watch or listen to two people fighting? It's barbaric.

If I wanted to watch that sort of entertainment than I'd just go around Kate Osamor's house...

What price Kate for Mayor of London? And then Foreign Secretary?

Given Labour has an anti-Semite at its head, it wouldn't surprise me if they chose a violent, selfish and nasty person for such a position ...

And you do not condemn the Conservatives who actually did so?

Are you referring to Zac? If so, I don't think he's ever threatened a journalist. Or thrown water over one. Or behaved in quite the way Osamor has.

Boris is a very different matter. And yes, I do condemn him over the Guppy mess. I quite like him, but he should be nowhere near the levers of power - let him keep on submitting ghostwritten columns as a journalist ...

I know you say you're not a Labour member, but you certainly seem keen to 'look, squirrel!' whenever they're criticised ...

Not at all. I'm not Labour, or any party, just a punter. And as I posted earlier, the betting angle here is to lay Boris because he is vulnerable on issues the Conservatives attack Labour for. Including this one.

Thanks for the kind offer, but I won't 'lay' Boris. He's just not my type.

But look at your reaction to my post: it's typical 'look, squirrel!'. Someone criticises Labour, and you go on about how evil the Conservatives are. Every time ...

Reminding people the Conservatives have form on this exact point, and pointing out a betting angle, is not "look squirrel".

You response was not a betting post, as it did not refer to anyone likely to be candidate for the Conservatives.

Lay Boris to succeed Theresa May as next party leader and prime minister. I'd hardly recommend laying Boris in a market that did not involve him.

Listening to the boxing, not sure how a man knocked down twice can be so certain to be ahead..

Why watch or listen to two people fighting? It's barbaric.

If I wanted to watch that sort of entertainment than I'd just go around Kate Osamor's house...

What price Kate for Mayor of London? And then Foreign Secretary?

Given Labour has an anti-Semite at its head, it wouldn't surprise me if they chose a violent, selfish and nasty person for such a position ...

And you do not condemn the Conservatives who actually did so?

Are you referring to Zac? If so, I don't think he's ever threatened a journalist. Or thrown water over one. Or behaved in quite the way Osamor has.

Boris is a very different matter. And yes, I do condemn him over the Guppy mess. I quite like him, but he should be nowhere near the levers of power - let him keep on submitting ghostwritten columns as a journalist ...

I know you say you're not a Labour member, but you certainly seem keen to 'look, squirrel!' whenever they're criticised ...

Not at all. I'm not Labour, or any party, just a punter. And as I posted earlier, the betting angle here is to lay Boris because he is vulnerable on issues the Conservatives attack Labour for. Including this one.

Thanks for the kind offer, but I won't 'lay' Boris. He's just not my type.

But look at your reaction to my post: it's typical 'look, squirrel!'. Someone criticises Labour, and you go on about how evil the Conservatives are. Every time ...

Reminding people the Conservatives have form on this exact point, and pointing out a betting angle, is not "look squirrel".

You response was not a betting post, as it did not refer to anyone likely to be candidate for the Conservatives.

Lay Boris to succeed Theresa May as next party leader and prime minister. I'd hardly recommend laying Boris in a market that did not involve him.

(fx: sighs theatrically). Which is nothing to do with the posts in question. Mayor of London is not party leader/PM ...

(And no, I don't like seeing people hitting each other, or think it's a sport.)

Seconded

*puts on best Mr Yeatman voice*

And I third it.

The thing is, I just don't see the appeal of it as a physical activity, yet alone as a competitive sport. firstly there's little glory in two people knocking two shades of sh*t out of each other, and secondly the capacity and opportunities for corruption are legendary and obvious. It doesn't classify as a 'sport' in either way.

I don't mind wrestling anywhere near as much, although I never really saw the Saturday afternoon wrestling on TV as a sport, either. Entertainment, yes. Sport, no.

The bit that was specifically drawn to your attention by the Attorney General? The bit that was so sensitive, there were numbered copies of the advice given out and collected back because they were so explosive? Whoops indeed.....

Not sure I see any acceptable way out on this. The DUP won't back down, because they are the DUP. Labour won't back down because it's blood sport. The other parties want their "me too" moment. Tories who hate her deal arent going to help out if it says "May's Brexit don't mean Brexit". So you have to think that by some point this coming week, the PM has a toxic piece of advice published. Whilst she is out and about flogging her horse that isn't just dead, it's at the knackers yard being melted down for glue. Result? her "deal" dies by a majority of over two hundred....

I'm not sure. Theresa May's decision seems quite arbitrary, and to serve no great purpose one way or the other. Whose mind would be changed? Whose vote? No-one's.

The people whose mind would be changed are those who currently think it it is the best Brexit on offer - if the Attorney General's advice says it is no Brexit because the EU can just avoid getting round to a deal. At best, it utterly compromises our negotiating ability for the (arguably much more important) full trading arrangment for decades to come.

When faced with such a terribly compromised future position, some might revisit whether the short-term pain of No Deal under WTO terms - and a clean slate for the trade talks - might not be a better option after all. Those offered her choice of "Shit sandwich? Or starve?" might just discover they have lost their appetite.

Listening to the boxing, not sure how a man knocked down twice can be so certain to be ahead..

Why watch or listen to two people fighting? It's barbaric.

If I wanted to watch that sort of entertainment than I'd just go around Kate Osamor's house...

What price Kate for Mayor of London? And then Foreign Secretary?

Given Labour has an anti-Semite at its head, it wouldn't surprise me if they chose a violent, selfish and nasty person for such a position ...

And you do not condemn the Conservatives who actually did so?

Are you referring to Zac? If so, I don't think he's ever threatened a journalist. Or thrown water over one. Or behaved in quite the way Osamor has.

Boris is a very different matter. And yes, I do condemn him over the Guppy mess. I quite like him, but he should be nowhere near the levers of power - let him keep on submitting ghostwritten columns as a journalist ...

I know you say you're not a Labour member, but you certainly seem keen to 'look, squirrel!' whenever they're criticised ...

Not at all. I'm not Labour, or any party, just a punter. And as I posted earlier, the betting angle here is to lay Boris because he is vulnerable on issues the Conservatives attack Labour for. Including this one.

Thanks for the kind offer, but I won't 'lay' Boris. He's just not my type.

But look at your reaction to my post: it's typical 'look, squirrel!'. Someone criticises Labour, and you go on about how evil the Conservatives are. Every time ...

They are extremely evil though, so even if avoidance tactics it is truthful

The bit that was specifically drawn to your attention by the Attorney General? The bit that was so sensitive, there were numbered copies of the advice given out and collected back because they were so explosive? Whoops indeed.....

Not sure I see any acceptable way out on this. The DUP won't back down, because they are the DUP. Labour won't back down because it's blood sport. The other parties want their "me too" moment. Tories who hate her deal arent going to help out if it says "May's Brexit don't mean Brexit". So you have to think that by some point this coming week, the PM has a toxic piece of advice published. Whilst she is out and about flogging her horse that isn't just dead, it's at the knackers yard being melted down for glue. Result? her "deal" dies by a majority of over two hundred....

The bit that was specifically drawn to your attention by the Attorney General? The bit that was so sensitive, there were numbered copies of the advice given out and collected back because they were so explosive? Whoops indeed.....

Not sure I see any acceptable way out on this. The DUP won't back down, because they are the DUP. Labour won't back down because it's blood sport. The other parties want their "me too" moment. Tories who hate her deal arent going to help out if it says "May's Brexit don't mean Brexit". So you have to think that by some point this coming week, the PM has a toxic piece of advice published. Whilst she is out and about flogging her horse that isn't just dead, it's at the knackers yard being melted down for glue. Result? her "deal" dies by a majority of over two hundred....

The bit that was specifically drawn to your attention by the Attorney General? The bit that was so sensitive, there were numbered copies of the advice given out and collected back because they were so explosive? Whoops indeed.....

Not sure I see any acceptable way out on this. The DUP won't back down, because they are the DUP. Labour won't back down because it's blood sport. The other parties want their "me too" moment. Tories who hate her deal arent going to help out if it says "May's Brexit don't mean Brexit". So you have to think that by some point this coming week, the PM has a toxic piece of advice published. Whilst she is out and about flogging her horse that isn't just dead, it's at the knackers yard being melted down for glue. Result? her "deal" dies by a majority of over two hundred....

The bit that was specifically drawn to your attention by the Attorney General? The bit that was so sensitive, there were numbered copies of the advice given out and collected back because they were so explosive? Whoops indeed.....

Not sure I see any acceptable way out on this. The DUP won't back down, because they are the DUP. Labour won't back down because it's blood sport. The other parties want their "me too" moment. Tories who hate her deal arent going to help out if it says "May's Brexit don't mean Brexit". So you have to think that by some point this coming week, the PM has a toxic piece of advice published. Whilst she is out and about flogging her horse that isn't just dead, it's at the knackers yard being melted down for glue. Result? her "deal" dies by a majority of over two hundred....

Whoops.

And then brexit dies as we rejoin

... or never actually leave.

If the EU will let us. An important caveat too many people are forgetting and what the headbangers of the ERG and DUP seem to be gambling on.

I would expect the EU to be very anxious to have us abort Brexit, but it will only take one naysayer - say, a deeply unpopular Spanish PM looking for some cheap domestic points, or an Irish PM who doesn't understand the issues, or an ill-judged phrase from a very arrogant but not very bright German in charge of the secretariat - to wreck it and leave us with no deal at all and every flight on the planet grounded.

The bit that was specifically drawn to your attention by the Attorney General? The bit that was so sensitive, there were numbered copies of the advice given out and collected back because they were so explosive? Whoops indeed.....

Not sure I see any acceptable way out on this. The DUP won't back down, because they are the DUP. Labour won't back down because it's blood sport. The other parties want their "me too" moment. Tories who hate her deal arent going to help out if it says "May's Brexit don't mean Brexit". So you have to think that by some point this coming week, the PM has a toxic piece of advice published. Whilst she is out and about flogging her horse that isn't just dead, it's at the knackers yard being melted down for glue. Result? her "deal" dies by a majority of over two hundred....

Whoops.

And then brexit dies as we rejoin

... or never actually leave.

If the EU will let us. An important caveat too many people are forgetting and what the headbangers of the ERG and DUP seem to be gambling on.

I would expect the EU to be very anxious to have us abort Brexit, but it will only take one naysayer - say, a deeply unpopular Spanish PM looking for some cheap domestic points, or an Irish PM who doesn't understand the issues, or an ill-judged phrase from a very arrogant but not very bright German in charge of the secretariat - to wreck it and leave us with no deal at all and every flight on the planet grounded.

The bit that was specifically drawn to your attention by the Attorney General? The bit that was so sensitive, there were numbered copies of the advice given out and collected back because they were so explosive? Whoops indeed.....

Not sure I see any acceptable way out on this. The DUP won't back down, because they are the DUP. Labour won't back down because it's blood sport. The other parties want their "me too" moment. Tories who hate her deal arent going to help out if it says "May's Brexit don't mean Brexit". So you have to think that by some point this coming week, the PM has a toxic piece of advice published. Whilst she is out and about flogging her horse that isn't just dead, it's at the knackers yard being melted down for glue. Result? her "deal" dies by a majority of over two hundred....

Whoops.

And then brexit dies as we rejoin

... or never actually leave.

If the EU will let us. An important caveat too many people are forgetting and what the headbangers of the ERG and DUP seem to be gambling on.

I would expect the EU to be very anxious to have us abort Brexit, but it will only take one naysayer - say, a deeply unpopular Spanish PM looking for some cheap domestic points, or an Irish PM who doesn't understand the issues, or an ill-judged phrase from a very arrogant but not very bright German in charge of the secretariat - to wreck it and leave us with no deal at all and every flight on the planet grounded.

With that bombshell, I am needed elsewhere. Have a good morning.

Most seem to forget we are on course to leave with no deal.

That is default and without legislation it clicks in in March 19

Yes - surprisingly poor reporting from Keunsberg saying Benn’s amendment “would stop us leaving with no deal”. No it wouldn’t. For that to happen a whole raft of other things have to happen too.

The bit that was specifically drawn to your attention by the Attorney General? The bit that was so sensitive, there were numbered copies of the advice given out and collected back because they were so explosive? Whoops indeed.....

Not sure I see any acceptable way out on this. The DUP won't back down, because they are the DUP. Labour won't back down because it's blood sport. The other parties want their "me too" moment. Tories who hate her deal arent going to help out if it says "May's Brexit don't mean Brexit". So you have to think that by some point this coming week, the PM has a toxic piece of advice published. Whilst she is out and about flogging her horse that isn't just dead, it's at the knackers yard being melted down for glue. Result? her "deal" dies by a majority of over two hundred....

Whoops.

And then brexit dies as we rejoin

... or never actually leave.

If the EU will let us. An important caveat too many people are forgetting and what the headbangers of the ERG and DUP seem to be gambling on.

I would expect the EU to be very anxious to have us abort Brexit, but it will only take one naysayer - say, a deeply unpopular Spanish PM looking for some cheap domestic points, or an Irish PM who doesn't understand the issues, or an ill-judged phrase from a very arrogant but not very bright German in charge of the secretariat - to wreck it and leave us with no deal at all and every flight on the planet grounded.

With that bombshell, I am needed elsewhere. Have a good morning.

Most seem to forget we are on course to leave with no deal.

That is default and without legislation it clicks in in March 19

Yes - surprisingly poor reporting from Keunsberg saying Benn’s amendment “would stop us leaving with no deal”. No it wouldn’t. For that to happen a whole raft of other things have to happen too.

It was the BBC who stated that everyone is forgetting that this vote does not change anything. Parliament has to legislate to stop no deal

The bit that was specifically drawn to your attention by the Attorney General? The bit that was so sensitive, there were numbered copies of the advice given out and collected back because they were so explosive? Whoops indeed.....

Not sure I see any acceptable way out on this. The DUP won't back down, because they are the DUP. Labour won't back down because it's blood sport. The other parties want their "me too" moment. Tories who hate her deal arent going to help out if it says "May's Brexit don't mean Brexit". So you have to think that by some point this coming week, the PM has a toxic piece of advice published. Whilst she is out and about flogging her horse that isn't just dead, it's at the knackers yard being melted down for glue. Result? her "deal" dies by a majority of over two hundred....

Whoops.

And then brexit dies as we rejoin

... or never actually leave.

If the EU will let us. An important caveat too many people are forgetting and what the headbangers of the ERG and DUP seem to be gambling on.

I would expect the EU to be very anxious to have us abort Brexit, but it will only take one naysayer - say, a deeply unpopular Spanish PM looking for some cheap domestic points, or an Irish PM who doesn't understand the issues, or an ill-judged phrase from a very arrogant but not very bright German in charge of the secretariat - to wreck it and leave us with no deal at all and every flight on the planet grounded.

With that bombshell, I am needed elsewhere. Have a good morning.

Most seem to forget we are on course to leave with no deal.

That is default and without legislation it clicks in in March 19

Yes - surprisingly poor reporting from Keunsberg saying Benn’s amendment “would stop us leaving with no deal”. No it wouldn’t. For that to happen a whole raft of other things have to happen too.

Embarassing admission: I actually have no idea what "Contempt of Parliament proceedings" are. Just a resolution? Or is there some sort of trial? That would add to the dream-like quality that much of politics currently has.

Clearly as PM you don't want it, but what exactly is the procedure if a majority said "Publish" (and the Government abstained on the vote) and the PM says "Shan't"?

Labour sources said that Starmer was ready to sign a joint letter with the DUP’s Westminster leader, Nigel Dodds, the Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Tom Brake, and the SNP Europe spokesman Stephen Gethins, asking Bercow to allow a motion “that the government has held parliament in contempt”.

Under Commons rules, if the speaker allows the motion to go before the House and the vote is carried it would then be referred to the committee of privileges which would rule on whether a contempt of parliament had taken place.

If it were decided that a contempt had occurred, the committee could recommend a suitable punishment which would be put back to MPs to agree.

In theory the most severe penalty is expulsion from the House, although the prospects of that happening would appear remote.--------I do like the very British journalism of that last line - yes, probably the committee won't recommend that the entire government should be expelled.

Labour sources said that Starmer was ready to sign a joint letter with the DUP’s Westminster leader, Nigel Dodds, the Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Tom Brake, and the SNP Europe spokesman Stephen Gethins, asking Bercow to allow a motion “that the government has held parliament in contempt”.

Under Commons rules, if the speaker allows the motion to go before the House and the vote is carried it would then be referred to the committee of privileges which would rule on whether a contempt of parliament had taken place.

If it were decided that a contempt had occurred, the committee could recommend a suitable punishment which would be put back to MPs to agree.

In theory the most severe penalty is expulsion from the House, although the prospects of that happening would appear remote.--------I do like the very British journalism of that last line - yes, probably the committee won't recommend that the entire government should be expelled.

Embarassing admission: I actually have no idea what "Contempt of Parliament proceedings" are. Just a resolution? Or is there some sort of trial? That would add to the dream-like quality that much of politics currently has.

Clearly as PM you don't want it, but what exactly is the procedure if a majority said "Publish" (and the Government abstained on the vote) and the PM says "Shan't"?

You'd have to think the sanction should be worse than Paisly Jnr. suffered though.

As someone who thinks Brexit is a calamity, this is the easiest way for Remain to win, splitting the Leave vote. It is rather unfair though...

And if the result was Deal 35% No Deal 20% Remain 45% what conclusions could or should be drawn? FPTP gives Remain, of course, but there's 55% for Leaving 'somehow'!Or is it going to be an AV election, in which case presumably Leavers would rather vote Deal (and Leave) than Remain, which gets the Deal ahead.

It's the old legal maxim, isn't it; never ask a question (in court) to which you do not know the answer.

But if it's a two-phase referendum it'd be perhaps fairer, although that might introduce a bias to the middle.

Q1 Should the UK Remain or Leave?

Q2 If Leave wins, should the UK leave with May's deal, or with no deal?

I would have suggested there are two options. They both revolve around the deal.

Option 1If our elected representatives have rejected the deal by a substantial margin then I see no morally logical case for them to offer us something they consider completely unacceptable, so the choice is leave / remain

Mr. Jonathan, then the winning option could have under 50% (or 52%...) of the vote, undermining legitimacy. Not to mention, as Mr. S did, that having three options, two for Leave and just one for Remain, could well be seen as gerrymandering to split the Leave vote.

Labour sources said that Starmer was ready to sign a joint letter with the DUP’s Westminster leader, Nigel Dodds, the Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Tom Brake, and the SNP Europe spokesman Stephen Gethins, asking Bercow to allow a motion “that the government has held parliament in contempt”.

Under Commons rules, if the speaker allows the motion to go before the House and the vote is carried it would then be referred to the committee of privileges which would rule on whether a contempt of parliament had taken place.

If it were decided that a contempt had occurred, the committee could recommend a suitable punishment which would be put back to MPs to agree.

In theory the most severe penalty is expulsion from the House, although the prospects of that happening would appear remote.--------I do like the very British journalism of that last line - yes, probably the committee won't recommend that the entire government should be expelled.

Just the Prime Minister.

Resigning matter, surely?

Interesting. The ERG do not have the numbers to get TMay to resign... But ERG +Labour, SNP & LDs do.

Remainers will mostly rank (remain, deal, no deal)Conservative loyalists will split on 2nd prefs, but just about rank (deal, remain, no deal)Erg will tend to rank (no deal, remain, deal), but there are less than 48 of them so who cares.Other leavers will rank (no deal, deal, remain)

Deal likely to be eliminated in round one, with conservative loyalists just winning it for remain, but it will be close.

But if it's a two-phase referendum it'd be perhaps fairer, although that might introduce a bias to the middle.

Q1 Should the UK Remain or Leave?

Q2 If Leave wins, should the UK leave with May's deal, or with no deal?

Phase referendum is not fairer. It is fairer to word it according to the possible outcomes. There are three. We need to pick one.

On April we will

RemainLeave with Mays dealLeave without Mays deal.

That’s it. Pick one. Or rank them

How is that honouring a vote where 52% have already said "Leave"? Or the 2017 General Election manifestos where 86% of the votes were cast for parties pledging to implement Brexit? Go ahead - if you really want to try to break democracy in this country...