What next after the opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, pulls out of the run-off election?

A PROLONGED and orchestrated campaign of state-sponsored violence has finally forced the opposition in Zimbabwe to pull out of the presidential run-off that is scheduled for Friday June 27th. Despite repeating to the last minute that withdrawal would not happen, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), led by Morgan Tsvangirai, says it will not take part in “a sham of an election process”. Mr Tsvangirai, explaining his decision, says that he could not ask Zimbabweans to cast their vote “when that vote could cost them their lives”. His party won the first round of the election in March, snatching a majority in Parliament from the ruling ZANU-PF for the first time ever. It also claimed to have won the presidential ballot outright, but official results called for a run-off. The president, Robert Mugabe, has vowed to hold on to power until “God” tells him otherwise.

The MDC has been the victim of increasingly brutal retaliation since March. Many rallies have been banned, making it difficult to campaign. A court overturned a police ban and allowed the opposition to hold a rally in Harare, the capital, on Sunday. But pro-government youth militias, young men armed with iron bars, blocked access to the grounds where the rally was to take place, beating people who tried to gather. Mr Tsvangirai has been detained several times while on the campaign trail. Tendai Biti, the MDC's secretary-general, has been jailed, charged with treason and denied bail. The party says that over 2,000 opposition supporters, including polling agents, are being detained illegally.

The opposition reports that over 80 supporters have been killed since March, 10,000 people injured, twice as many homes destroyed, and over 200,000 displaced by the violence. Perhaps as a result, Mr Tsvangirai appears to have no clear plan of what to do now. He wants the region and the UN to intervene to restore peace and conditions for a free and fair election. Zimbabwe's authorities say they will go ahead with the poll. In theory, Mr Tsvangirai's bowing out of the race means another five-year term for Mr Mugabe.

Mr Mugabe may yet struggle to get away with murder. At least some in the region, which for so long let Mr Mugabe steal elections and refused to criticise him, are at last speaking out. After Mr Tsvangirai said he was pulling out of the election, Zambia's president, Levy Mwanawasa, said that it was “scandalous” for the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), a club a 14 countries that he chairs, to remain silent on Zimbabwe's crisis. He added that the stance was embarrassing and called for the poll to be postponed to avert a catastrophe. Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general, issued a statement supporting Mr Mwanawasa. The regional bloc has been divided over how to deal with the situation, with Zambia, Botswana and Tanzania showing growing signs of impatience. Even Angola, a long-time ally of Mr Mugabe, which will hold its own elections in September, has advised the Zimbabwean president to stop the violence.

A host of prominent African leaders have said out loud that the election had no chance of being free and fair. South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki, whom the SADC asked last year to mediate between Zimbabwe's opposition and ruling party, was in Harare last week in an attempt to have both sides talk. Even now that Mr Tsvangirai had thrown in the towel, Mr Mbeki, who refuses to stand up to Mr Mugabe, is still hoping for a negotiated solution. The UN Security Council will discuss the situation on Monday, unless South Africa, which has a seat on the council at the moment, again blocks talks.

So far, Mr Mugabe does not seem to care. He has made it clear he would never allow the opposition to take over, and refuses to meet Mr Tsvangirai. As Mr Mugabe and his supporting generals act more flagrantly, his neighbours face a greater test. Faced with hair-raising brutality, a blatant disregard for democracy and a country in economic ruins, the region, long paralysed by divisions and misplaced loyalty, will come under more pressure to act.