Tuesday, 24 February 2015

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +5pts @ 2115 (new historic high 2117). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers a retrace to the 50dma... but for now.. price action offers zero sign such a retrace has even begun.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*I'm tired... so this will be brief.
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Suffice to say... as the overly loud Mr Carboni might say... '.. a new high is a new high'.

Without question... this market is again displaying its underlying hyper-strength. Yes, there is resistance in the current sp'2110/20s...and on the monthly cycle in the 2150s.... but regardless... the market is grinding higher.

Even a retrace to the 50dma will do nothing to the short, mid, or long term upward trends.

Here is a thought.... we have another few hours of the Yellen tomorrow morning... gods help us all.

Regardless of the exact close, it has been just another day for the equity bull maniacs, with a new historic high of sp'2116. VIX is confirming the move, -5% in the lowly 13s. Metals remain broadly weak, Gold -$2, with Silver -0.3%. The R2K is notably 'fractionally' weak.

sp'60min

R2K, daily

Summary

*there is a touch of weakness in the second market leader - the R2K, although like most indexes.. it broke a new high today. As can be seen on the daily chart, even a brief retrace to the 50dma (1190s) will do nothing to negate what has been an important few months.
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The hourly equity cycles are set to turn lower for the rest of today, although the new historic high of sp'2116 is of course highly notable. Metals remain weak, Gold -$4, with Silver -0.6%. Oil is holding gains of 1.4%, but as ever... highly vulnerable to swinging lower at any point.

sp'60min

sp'daily3

Summary

*slightly adjusted fib retrace chart. Right now, 2065 would be a valid min' target... for next week.
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So... Yellen (at least part'1) is out of the way.... with 3 hours to go... lets see if we can get a net daily decline.

First soft target is yesterday's low of 2103... but more importantly... 2100.

With Yellen continuing to talk, the precious metals remain weak. Gold has seen a key break below key rising support, -$9. A break of the $1130 low from November seems a given.. with $1000 this coming late spring/summer.

GLD, daily

Summary

Little to add... whilst the Yellen continues.

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VIX update from Mr P.

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time for tea
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12.17pm.. Yellen finally wraps up....

Equity hourly cycle looks maxed out at 2116... so.. lets see if we remain stuck for rest of the day.

*notable weakness, oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -3%

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 2108. Metals are weak, Gold -$2. Oil is moderately higher, +0.4%. The Yellen is due to address the US senate this morning at 10am... and Mr Market will most certainly be listening!

sp'daily3 - fib retrace

Summary

*It remains highly uncertain if 2110 is a short term high... if so though.... a retrace to the 50dma remains the natural downside target, but clearly.. that is not going to happen this week.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is ticking over on the daily cycle.. and does offer moderate hope to the bears of equity market weakness into next week.

As for this morning... if Yellen starts talking a little too much of possible interest rate rises this summer (or whenever)... it'll be very fair excuse for the market to sell lower.

US equities closed moderately lower, sp -0.7pts @ 2109. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and u/c respectively. Near term outlook offers a 5-7 day down cycle to the sp'2060/40 zone, which might (briefly) equate to VIX 19/20s.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Frankly... little to add, on what was another pretty tedious day.

Price action does offer the equity bears some hope that 2110 was a short term high... with a 2-3% down wave into next week.
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Closing update from Riley

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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Case Schiller HPI, Richmond Fed, and consumer conf'.

*Yellen will be speaking to the US Senate, which might take until 1pm to complete. Any talk of interest rate rises by the summer will give the market the excuse to sell lower.
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