Politics|What Does the Supreme Court Mean for the Midterm Elections? Here Are 2 Hints

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What Does the Supreme Court Mean for the Midterm Elections? Here Are 2 Hints

President Trump’s selection of Brett Kavanaugh for a Supreme Court vacancy comes just four months before crucial national elections.

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Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Democrat of New York, spoke to demonstrators outside the Supreme Court after President Trump announced his nominee, Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh, on Monday.CreditCreditErin Schaff for The New York Times

President Trump’s selection of Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh as his second Supreme Court nominee could be a consequential moment for the midterm elections. Republicans hope a confirmation battle will galvanize voters on the right, while Democrats are balancing their own energized liberal base against the political pressure on some red-state Democrats to side with Mr. Trump.

Here is how the elections in November could affect the confirmation process — and vice versa.

The clock is running

With 12 years on the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit and stints as a White House staff secretary, under President George W. Bush, and as an assistant to Kenneth W. Starr, the independent counsel who investigated President Bill Clinton, Judge Kavanaugh has quite the résumé in government.

And that could create complications for President Trump and Senate Republicans.

When Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, offered his guidance about the court pick to Mr. Trump last week, he cautioned the president that the sheer volume of Judge Kavanaugh’s paperwork from a career in law and politics could hand Democrats the chance to stall a vote.

That could mean that Judge Kavanaugh would not be seated by the time the next court session begins in October and, if controversial matters arise from his background, perhaps even push a vote until after the November elections. And that is not what Mr. McConnell, who because of Senator John McCain’s absence has just 50 Senate Republicans available, would prefer.

Holding the vote before the midterms would allow Mr. McConnell to put more pressure on those red-state Democrats who are facing re-election and have little desire to incur Mr. Trump’s wrath. But should those senators be liberated from such pressure — either by winning or losing on Nov. 6 — and not face a vote until after the election, the president’s leverage would be diminished.

Some Democrats have already argued that no nominee should be voted on before the midterms, and that argument may grow more plausible closer to Election Day.

President Trump selected Judge Kavanaugh to replace Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, who is set to retire. If confirmed, Judge Kavanaugh would cement a conservative hold on the court.CreditCreditDoug Mills/The New York Times

The most important audience: women

The success or failure of Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination, and its political impact, are likely to hinge on two different groups of women.

First, there are the women of the Senate, including two Republicans supportive of abortion rights, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, and two red-state Democrats up for re-election this year, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Claire McCaskill of Missouri. With the abortion right protections of Roe v. Wade at stake, Judge Kavanaugh and his backers cannot afford to lose even one Republican vote if Democrats put up a wall of opposition against him.

Second, there are the women who vote in November: Female voters have swung hard toward Democrats in recent elections and polls show a potentially historic gender gap emerging in the midterm campaign. Mr. Trump and his party must avoid a confirmation process that alienates women any further.

Signaling that he recognizes this political context for his nomination, Judge Kavanaugh repeatedly stressed his respect for women as role models and peers. In his remarks Monday evening, he cited his mother’s example as a prosecutor and judge in inspiring his own legal career, and thanked Justice Elena Kagan for having hired him during her tenure as dean of Harvard Law School. And Judge Kavanaugh noted that most of the clerks he has hired while a judge have been women.

But Judge Kavanaugh will face a sterner test in the coming weeks. Already, his role in a recent case involving an undocumented immigrant seeking to have an abortion has come under scrutiny, and Senate Democrats have indicated they will press him hard to commit to preserving Roe— a commitment Judge Kavanaugh cannot make without alienating the right, even in the uncertain event he wanted to do so.

Jonathan Martin is a national political correspondent. He has reported on a range of topics, including the 2016 presidential election and several state and congressional races, while also writing for Sports, Food and the Book Review. He is also a CNN political analyst. @jmartnyt

Alexander Burns is a national political correspondent, covering elections and political power across the country, including Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign. Before coming to The Times in 2015, he covered the 2012 presidential election for Politico. @alexburnsNYT