RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS

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by Trevor Houser | August 20, 2013After a sharp drop last year in response to US sanctions and a European import ban, Iranian crude oil exports have leveled off. The US Congress to looking for new ways to tighen the screws on Tehran.

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by Trevor Houser | February 11, 2013Trade data on how Tehran fared under the first year of international sanctions aimed at choking off the country’s crude oil exports is now available. We offer a roundup of Iranian oil exports in 2012 and discuss the outlook for the year ahead.

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by Trevor Houser | October 5, 2012 Iranian crude oil exports stabilized at just under one million barrels per day in August following July’s dramatic decline. But with oil revenue down 60 percent and average Iranians looking to get their savings out of rial and out of the country, Tehran is facing a balance of payments crisis.

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by Trevor Houser | September 5, 2012 As customs data for the month of July rolls in, we’re getting a clearer picture of Iranian oil exports the first month after new US and EU sanctions formally took effect. And it’s not a pretty one for Tehran. Preliminary shipping data had suggested this would be the case, and the customs data confirms it.

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by Trevor Houser | June 27, 2012Over the coming week, Western sanctions on Iranian oil exports formally take effect. Starting tomorrow, any bank processing payment for Iranian crude trade received an exception, and as of Sunday, shipping insurance providers will lose their European-based reinsurance if they continue to cover Iranian oil cargos. This note provides a wrap-up of the oil market impacts of sanctions to date and an outlook for the months ahead.

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by Trevor Houser and Shashank Mohan | March 21, 2012 The Obama Administration announced yesterday that ten EU member-states and Japan have “significantly reduced” imports of Iranian oil, allowing banks in those countries to continue doing business with the Central Bank of Iran free of US sanction for the next 180 days. In this note, we assess what this round of exceptions means for other Iranian oil customers in the months ahead.

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by Trevor Houser and Shashank Mohan | February 29, 2012 One of the most important factors shaping oil markets this year is buried on page 596 of the 925-page National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) signed into law by President Obama on December 31st, 2011. In addition to setting the overall US defense spending for Fiscal Year 2012, the NDAA imposes sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran (CBI). Banks doing business with the CBI risk exclusion from the US financial system unless the country they are headquartered in “significantly reduces” oil imports from Iran. How that term is interpreted will in large part determine the extent to which growing Western pressure on Iran drives up global oil prices.

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by Trevor Houser | February 9, 2012 Washington and Brussels are trying to curb Iranian oil revenue in a bid to convince Tehran to abandon its nuclear weapons program. But it appears financial sanctions imposed by the West are having a more immediate impact on what Iran buys from abroad rather than what it sells. Reports this week suggest Iranian companies are finding it increasingly difficult to import food, raising the specter of a political crisis ahead of the parliamentary elections on March 2nd. Tehran is trying to a get around the issue by bartering food for oil, but a close look at the data suggests this will only be a partial solution at best.

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by Pramit Pal Chaudhuri and Trevor Houser | February 6, 2012 India’s oil trade with Iran has been plagued by payment problems thanks to US financial sanctions. Indian refineries have now quietly begun looking for alternative sources of supply. New Delhi, however, is eager to show Tehran it’s putting up a good fight on their behalf. Iran has agreed to accept rupee payment for half the crude it sells to India – a good deal for New Delhi but an indication of just how tough things are getting for Tehran.

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by Trevor Houser and Shashank Mohan | January 24, 2012 With an EU ban on Iranian oil imports coming into effect over the next six months, Tehran will need to find new buyers for nearly 600,000 bpd of its crude. This note provides a snapshot of the markets that remain.

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by Trevor Houser and Shashank Mohan | January 17, 2012 As Europe, Japan and Korea look to wind down their purchases of Iranian oil, all eyes are on Saudi Arabia and whether the Kingdom will step in a replace lost Iranian supply. While an increase in Saudi output would help blunt the oil market impact of growing international pressure on Tehran, its not the silver bullet policymakers are looking for. As important will be whether China is willing to take on additional Iranian supply.

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by Trevor Houser and Pramit Pal Chaudhuri | January 11, 2012With US sanctions making it increasingly difficult for Indian refiners to process payment for Iranian crude, New Delhi is looking for ways to unwind the country's Iran oil trade.

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by Trevor Houser and Shashank Mohan | January 4, 2012Trevor Houser and Shashank Mohan analyze the impact of new US financial sanctions on Iranian oil exports and global oil markets during the first half of 2012.

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by Trevor Houser and Shashank Mohan | December 22, 2011 The US and Europe are stepping up the pressure on Iran by going after the country's oil exports. RHG's Trevor Houser and Shashank Mohan assess what this means for global oil markets in the coming year.

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by Pramit Pal Chaudhuri and Shashank Mohan | August 4, 2011 The financial sanctions imposed against Iran over its nuclear program have severely disrupted Iran’s petroleum trade with its second-largest customer, India. In this note we discuss what it means for oil markets and India-Iran relations.

Sources: Rhodium Group estimates based on data from the IEA, EuroStat, the Japanese Ministry of Finance, KITA, CEIC, GTA and the Indian Ministry of Commerce. *Market exchange rate values between February and September 2012 are unavailable. Values here are strait-line extrapolations. For more information, please email iranoildesk@rhgroup.net.