I know this is far-fetched but: Japan, S Korea and the EU are already looking for ways to get an exemption from sanctions, so they can continue importing Iranian crude. China has assured Iran it will continue buying crude from it. So what will happen to prices if the 500,000 bpd (or more) decline in internationally available oil never materializes?

Edited May 10, 2018 by Marina Schwarz

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The answer to your question is rather straightforward. "Business as usual". Contrary to the popular "wisdom", there has neve been an actual oil shortage in the history of the oil business. The closest we have come recently was in 1970 when supplies were actually tight. The unenlightened hype every time the price spikes is the result, basically, of ignorance and media herd following.

There is plenty of supply, with or without Iran's last million barrels a day. So fret not and just keep on reading the unenlightened hype. After all, speculative traders need the resulting volatility to continue in business.

Edited May 10, 2018 by William Edwards

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The oil supply potential is technically 150MBPD. Countries like KSA, Russia can pump at 30MBPD, Kuwait at 9MBPD, UAE at 9MBPD, Iraq at 10MBPD and China can pump at 8MBPD. Even other countries can hike oil supply. But the oil being a non renewable resource, the requirements of short and long term is balanced by managing production.

Oil at 150MBPD is also consumable. If the suppliers ensure that oil price is stable and supply rises quickly as per demand, people will have no problem consuming this much oil. The USA with 300million population consumes 20MBPD of fossil liquids. UK consumes 1.5MBPD for 50 million population. Considering USA as an outlier, even if all countries like India, African countries start using oil at the same rate as UK, the world will need more than 150MBPD oil. If the oil supply is directly in relation to demand, then the sitaution would be much more different. But, it is the Quota system that is the problem. This system is purely political

10 minutes ago, William Edwards said:

The answer to your question is rather straightforward. "Business as usual". Contrary to the popular "wisdom", there has neve been an actual oil shortage in the history of the oil business. The closest we have come recently was in 1970 when supplies were actually tight. The unenlightened hype every time the price spikes is the result, basically, of ignorance and media herd following.

There is plenty of supply, with or without Iran's last million barrels a day. So fret not and just keep on reading the unenlightened hype. After all, speculative traders need the resulting volatility to continue in business.