3:43pm: Marc Topkin reports that Kazmir remains in the Rays clubhouse. He hasn’t been told anything about a trade and actually thought the writers who asked him about one were kidding.

And the LA Times wrote an hour ago: “Angels trade for Rays’ Scott Kazmir … The trade is expected to be announced later today.” Oddly, the story was broken by Lyle Spencer at mlb.com, an employee of the league writing on the Angels’ own Web site. So it’s certainly strange that the news got pulled back.

MLB Trade Rumors: The trade will be announced after the Tigers/Rays game, per St. Pete Times. So the deal appears to be on.

UPDATE: Or? Thanks, Stephen: “(Scioscia) also said … there is nothing out there right now that seems like it is going to happen.” Further update: DJ A.M. died. Wow!

For now, we’ll analyze as though this will happen. Even if it doesn’t.

Kazmir > Penny, and better than Matt Palmer or Trevor Bell, and probably better than Joe Saunders for the fourth spot in a postseason rotation, so three cheers.

Downside: Kazmir has been awful this year, an ERA approaching 6, a stint on the disabled list (which is, of course, the norm for him), the lowest strikeout rate of his career. His average fastball, 90.7 mph this year, is down from last year, which was down from the year before, which was down a lot from when he first came up.

Upside: His last three starts have been good, his last start was exceptional (10 Ks, one walk and one run in six innings), he was one of the best pitchers in baseball as recently as 2007, he’s only 25 and the Angels will control him through at least 2011. He was pretty obviously hurt when he was struggling at the beginning of the season; since coming back, his fastball has been higher and his ERA is merely in the mid-4s.

More downside: They control him but he won’t be cheap. He’ll get $8 million in 2010, which seems about right, but $12 million in 2011, which will look dreadful unless he really bounces back (and the economy does, too). Add to that a $2.5 million buyout for 2012 or a $13.5 salary. And how did he ever pass through waivers?

Seriously. How did he ever pass through waivers? The Tigers and Rangers didn’t think they needed starting? Or they saw something they didn’t like?

The Angels give up Alexander Torres and Matthew Sweeney. Torres is a 21-year-old pitcher who was promoted to double A this year after posting a 2.74 ERA and a K per inning in high-A ball this year. He’s given up just seven home runs in 270 professional innings, which is really something. He’s been wild, walking a batter every other inning for most of his carer. Oh, and he’s a little guy, less than six feet.

Sweeney is a 21-year-old third baseman with a .900 OPS in high-A Rancho Cucamonga, a friendly hitting environment. As a 19-year-old, he hit 18 home runs at low-A Cedar Rapids, so it appears he has some real power, but missed all of the 2008 season. He spent some time on the DL this August, too. Also, he walks! Here’s some video of him. Neither prospect was on any of the top-10 lists this spring, but it looks like Sweeney in particular might have been after this year.

Rays manager Joe Maddon on Kazmir’s most recent start:

On Friday night a different Kazmir took the mound for the Rays, and the positive results from the left-hander’s outing came wrapped in a 5-3 win over the Rangers with 20,639 watching at Tropicana Field.

“That’s as good as [Kazmir] has been all year, there is no question in my mind,” Rays manager Joe Maddon said. “Good team, strike-throwing, big moment — I was really impressed.”

Of course, the Rays were trying to move him, so he had some incentive to lie. But the numbers back him up. His fastball hit 94, averaged 92, which is more or less where he was last year.

ZiPS, a popular statistical projection system, forecasts a 4.00 ERA from Kazmir for the rest of this season. Meanwhile, Joe Saunders, whose traditional stats in 2009 aren’t great and whose peripheral stats are awful, projects a 5.05 ERA for the rest of this season. If those turn out right, the Angels will have an easy decision in the postseason, and be glad Kazmir is around.

Kazmir threw 25 innings in five postseason starts for the Rays last year. His ERA was 4.21, but he walked 18 (!!) in those 25 innings. In Game 5 of the World Series — an elimination game for Tampa Bay — he walked six in four innings. Of course, because Kazmir is often borderline unhittable, he allowed just two runs.

He has pitched just about 5.5 innings per start this year, which has always been a bit of a bugaboo for him, as he throws a LOT of pitches. His career high is just 6.05 innings per start, and he has thrown only one complete game.

For what it’s worth (nothing!), he has started just once in Anaheim in his career. He gave up three runs in 6 2/3 innings, striking out 10 and walking one.

“In other words, Kazmir’s deal isn’t a terrible one. It’s not a bargain in any sense, but it’s probably not that far off what he’d get if he was a free agent. Given the ratio between his talent level and cost, he should have trade value right around zero. He’s not a boat anchor that teams won’t touch, but the price tag is high enough that the Rays shouldn’t expect any real talent coming back in return.”

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{democracy:319}

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All in all, I like it. The Angels are 80 percent likely to make the postseason, so this is a move about next season (replacing Lackey?) and the postseason. There just weren’t four guys I was confident about in the Angels’ playoff rotation. Now, there probably are.

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