The C Voter-ABP News survey found anti-incumbency against the state governments but not as much against the Centre.

The Congress is likely to sweep Rajasthan and just get over the halfway mark in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in upcoming Assembly elections, an opinion poll said on Saturday. All the three states are currently controlled by the Bharatiya Janata Party.

The Opposition party is likely to win 142 of 200 seats in Rajasthan, almost a reversal of the 2013 Assembly election results when the Bharatiya Janata Party won 163 seats, according to the poll conducted by C-Voter for ABP News.

In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress is likely to win 122 seats in the 230-member Assembly, while in Chhattisgarh, it is estimated to win 47 of 90 seats.

“Employment is a running theme and features in the top two priorities for all three states,” C Voter-ABP News said. “Water supply is an issue that is salient in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh while roads are accorded higher priority in Chhattisgarh. This reflects upon peculiar developmental needs of the respective states. Higher importance of employment as an election issues indicates a negative sentiment on the street pertaining to personal welfare.”

The survey found anti-incumbency directed against state governments, chief ministers and MLAs, but not so much against the Centre, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Members of Parliament. “Across all three states, more than 50% of respondents did not want to change the Central government or the prime minister,” C Voter-ABP News said. “Therefore, in a situation where state governments are unpopular but central government is popular, we might observe the split voting pattern.”

The Election Commission of India announced the poll schedule for five states, including these three, on Saturday. In Chhattisgarh, the first phase of voting will take place on November 12 and the second phase eight days later. Madhya Pradesh will vote on November 28 while Rajasthan will go to the polls on December 7. The votes will be counted on December 11.