Can a slowdown in growth lead to a better quality of life?

Bonding in Baldwin Park

JOE BURBANK, ORLANDO SENTINEL

Bonnie Campagnuolo kisses son Benjamin, 5, as Baldwin Park neighbor Mollie O'Shea prepares to drive him and and her son Dylan, 6, to school this month. The Orlando families have become good friends since moving to Baldwin Park and carpool via golf cart to school nearby.

Bonnie Campagnuolo kisses son Benjamin, 5, as Baldwin Park neighbor Mollie O'Shea prepares to drive him and and her son Dylan, 6, to school this month. The Orlando families have become good friends since moving to Baldwin Park and carpool via golf cart to school nearby. (JOE BURBANK, ORLANDO SENTINEL)

Linda ShrievesOrlando Sentinel

As a dedicated soccer mom, Chris Reilly volunteered to help her son's team when the squad needed to find a new practice field.

Little did she know how difficult that would be in Central Florida, where a burgeoning populace has outpaced the availability of athletic fields. In a state that has doubled its population since 1980, growth has eclipsed local governments' ability to keep up.

The evidence of overcrowding shows up most often on our roads — and drivers bear the brunt of the burden. In 2007, the typical Orlando commuter spent 53 hours — more than a typical workweek — stuck in traffic, ranking Orlando sixth among U.S. cities.

In the past few years, the number of people moving to Florida has fallen. And this year, for the first time, more people are projected to move out of the state than move in. Economists and demographers predict the Sunshine State will grow again, but more slowly.

Those who already live here may envision less traffic congestion, schools without portables, a drop in crime and, for parents like Reilly, less-crowded soccer fields.

Experts say there's little evidence this current slowdown in growth will result in an immediate improvement in quality of life for most Floridians. But urban planners say now is the time to take a breath and look to the future. Once growth resumes, and it surely will, there will be an opportunity to manage it more responsibly, they say.

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When Chris Reilly began calling county and city parks and recreation departments in an effort to rent a soccer field for her kid's league, she discovered that nearly all had waiting lists. Some parks hold a lottery each year to determine what teams can rent the fields.

Frustrated, Reilly started calling public schools. "They said, 'Call us back in June 2010. We may have an opening then,' " she recalled.

Finally, she found a field — near the intersection of the East-West Expressway and Kirkman Road. It's a long commute from Winter Springs for the Reilly family, but many parents whose children play sports are accustomed to driving distances to find open fields.

"The situation is horrendous," said Hue Menzies, executive director of Central Florida United soccer club, which has 1,200 kids playing soccer at fields from Winter Park to Winter Springs. "The lack of facilities stifles the development of players because you have to hold practices in a corner, not a whole field."

And there's little hope the situation will improve, even as Florida's growth slows. Property-tax reforms, combined with falling home values, have led to big cuts in landscaping and maintenance at both parks and along roadways.

"I don't think people understand that Florida is unique without any income tax and any other source of revenue, except sales tax and property tax," said Chris Holly, executive director of the Florida Association of Counties. "The average resident doesn't connect the dots between no growth and shrinking resources to operate off of."

For a look at what the future in Central Florida may be like, consider Pinellas County, where bathrooms in public parks are being closed on weekdays, lifeguards were let go at public beaches and some residents are being asked to pay $100 for a library card.

In Orange County, the belt-tightening has included reducing library hours. Seminole County has closed its libraries on Fridays. In Casselberry, homeowners now pay the cost of streetlights. In Osceola County, residents are paying higher fire fees. And the city of Orlando, long known for its roadside flower beds, has eliminated expensive landscaping along roadways and in some parks.

"Our communities have become very cost-conscious," said Jim Sellen, a private planner who led Orange County's planning department in the 1970s. "As cities and counties, we're doing the equivalent of clipping coupons."

Traffic: 'As good as it's going to get'

For 45 minutes after she leaves her office near the University of Central Florida, Michelle Stevens pokes along in rush-hour traffic on Alafaya Trail. Her ride home to Waterford Lakes is seven miles.

Stevens loves Orlando, but the growth machine that created the boom on the east side of Orange County — including massive subdivisions like Waterford Lakes, Stoneybrook East and Avalon Park — has also created a daily traffic snarl.

As the state's population has grown, so have the number of cars. Since 1980, the number of registered vehicles more than doubled, from 7.6 million to 16.4 million in 2006, according to the state Department of Transportation. Florida's growth years coincided with another societal change: Americans began walking less, riding bikes less and riding buses less often, leading to more congested roadways.

But what will happen to traffic as Florida's boom years come to an end and growth comes not in leaps and bounds, but in a steady trickle? Will transportation planners finally be able to catch up with traffic congestion?

Don't bet on it, says David Grovdahl, director of transportation planning at Metroplan Orlando, where he has been monitoring Orlando's traffic patterns since the 1970s. "This is as good as it's going to get," he said.

For years, transportation planners have been playing catch-up, trying to alleviate congestion at highly clogged intersections and along roads that are regularly jammed. But the roads will continue to be stressed. According to Metroplan Orlando's estimates, the Orlando area will be home to about 3 million people in 20 years. And when people think about quality of life, they often think about traffic.

Are 'New American Villages' the future?

Florida will grow again, demographers and economists say. Its warm climate and low taxes will surely attract new residents and new communities. When that happens, planners say, a more measured, smaller "community" approach to development would be prudent.

That kind of future Florida can be seen now in the manicured streets of Baldwin Park.

Built on land that was once home to the Orlando Naval Training Center, the property has been redeveloped into what urban planners call a "New American Village" — a neighborhood that has homes, schools and a town center all within walking or bicycling distance.

While suburbanites may scoff at the concept, the state's urban planners and transportation planners think developments such as Baldwin Park, Celebration and Avalon Park may be a prescription for the future — because they solve many of the problems Florida is facing. Redeveloping older areas into urban villages would put unemployed construction workers back to work — while relieving the need to build new roads and schools in distant suburbs.

"The suburban model might be outmoded for Florida," said Dr. Tim Chapin, an urban-planning professor at Florida State University. "We're going to move away from those big communities of 4,000-square-foot homes."

The challenge, says Sellen, will be to put those types of developments in areas close to Orlando's job hubs: Maitland Center, Disney, Orlando International Airport, the "Medical City" at Lake Nona and UCF. He envisions turning even small plots of land — from decrepit shopping centers to closed car dealerships — into small, walkable urban villages.

In Baldwin Park, residents have smaller yards than are found in most suburbs. But that closeness can also bring people together, rather than isolating everyone on their own half-acre.

When Bonnie Campagnuolo and her husband moved to Baldwin Park, they found a sense of community that she hasn't seen elsewhere.

She and her neighbors take their kids to the community pool together and hold block parties. When she has an early morning meeting, a neighbor will give her kindergartner a ride to school.

"We happen to have awesome neighbors who are our friends and are a big part of our lives," she said. "I think we probably have atypical relationships with our neighbors."

Robert Costanza, director of the Gund Institute for Ecological Economics at the University of Vermont, said getting to know the neighbors makes people feel more rooted to their communities.

"In European or even earlier American villages, houses were closer together and people actually walk around, at least in their neighborhoods," Costanza said. "In places like this, people seem to be happier."

This is the year Florida turned a corner. The seemingly eternal era of rapid growth may now be replaced with a new age of slower growth. Now is the time to envision a future where growth is not the state's premier industry. Sunshine State Slowdown will examine what the growth hiatus could mean for the state's economic structure, its schools, the environment and residents' quality of life.