Established in 2008, this blog is an independent, common sense, look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. I am not a tipster, nor is this a Profit and Loss report either. They are boring.

Thursday, 1 August 2013

I've long since given up the idea of a monthly review, because it is of no interest to anyone but myself, but one thing that caught my attention when wrapping up July's numbers was how boringly consistent my profits have been over the last four months.Taking the average over this period, April was 3.5% above, May was 8.2% below, June was 2.7% below and July is provisionally 7.4% above. (The final number will depend on the Premium Charge which is weekly, not monthly, and will likely be charged to July, barring a bad weekend). Not surprisingly, my monthly Benford number has been boringly the same all four months too.The Summer months are usually boring. Based on the median over the past eight years, June through September are four of my worst five months with April the worst by quite a long way, as I have somehow managed to have four losing months here.Not all months are the same of course, making them arbitrary snapshots of unequal time periods and any observations are of academic interest only. Totals since September 2008 and October 2012 are impacted by the Premium Charge and Super Premium Charges respectively, which often makes depressing reading when comparing pre-charge numbers with post-charge, but it must be still worthwhile for me to continue to spend some, albeit reduced, time on the exchanges.Looking at August 2012, I see my net profit was a whopping £68, so I shall be disappointed not to beat that! Not only does proper football get under way again, but the NFL starts on Sunday with the Hall of Fame game between the Miami Dolphins and the Dallas Cowboys in Canton, Ohio. August is all meaningless exhibition games in the NFL, with starters playing very little until the season proper begins in the first week of September.The college version of the game does get started in late August, as does the US Tennis Open, and the pennant races in baseball heat up in August too. The New York Yankees look likely to miss out on the play-offs this season, and the fate of Alex Rodriguez will be interesting to see. 18 of the 30 teams either lead their division or are within 10 games, and only one division (NL East - Atlanta) is all but over.

About Me

I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.