Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates
against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy
infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take
time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take
effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to
renewable energies will require additional investment and higher
supply costs over about twenty years

energy demand by sector

The future development pathways for China’s energy demand are shown in Figure 5.122 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand in China increases by 89% from the current 96,000 PJ/a to around 181,300 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, by contrast, energy demand increases by 9% compared to current consumption and it is expected by 2050 to reach 104,500 PJ/a.

Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in the industrial, residential, and service sectors is expected to increase disproportionately (see Figure 5.123). With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however, an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to 10,040 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to the Reference case, efficiency measures in industry and other sectors avoid the generation of about 3,320 TWh/a or 29%. In contrast, electricity consumption in the transport sector will grow significantly, as the Energy [R]evolution scenario introduces electric trains and public transport as well as efficient electric vehicles faster than the Reference case. Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation are also phased out more quickly and replaced by electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen.

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in the electricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced significantly (see Figure 5.125). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 7200 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050.

In the transport sector it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will increase considerably, from 6,816 PJ/a in 2009 to 12,600 PJ/a by 2050. However this still saves 56% compared to the Reference scenario. By 2030 electricity will provide 13% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution scenario increasing to 55% by 2050.