2014-15 NFL Coach of the Year Odds

2014-15 NFL Coach of the Year Odds

Earlier this off-season we detailed which NFL head coaches were on the hot seat by detailing the odds of being the first coach to be fired. There’s always a lot of pressure on the Cowboys head coach, so perhaps it wasn’t surprising that Jason Garrett (+200) is the overwhelming favorite to be first on the chopping block.

While it can be easy to get caught up in negativity and pessimism when discussing NFL coaching, it’s important to reward those who do their job well. Last season “Riverboat” Ron Rivera led the Carolina Panthers to a 12-4 record en route to his first AP Coach of the Year award, however, he was not listed as one of the ten options when BetOnline posted 2014 Coach of the Year odds.

Three-time Coach of the Year Bill Belichick (2003, 2007, 2010) is currently listed as the favorite to win this award at +800. Although Belichick is always a force to be reckoned with, he does not fit the prototypical criteria for Coach of the Year. Historically this award has been given not necessarily to the head coach of the best team, but rather the team that has the biggest turnaround from the previous season.

The table below displays the past ten award winners along with their team wins the previous season.

Year

Coach

Team

Record

Previous Year Record

Difference

2013

Ron Rivera

Carolina Panthers

12-4

7-9

+5

2012

Bruce Arians

Indianapolis Colts

9-3

2-14

+7

2011

Jim Harbaugh

San Francisco 49ers

13-3

6-10

+7

2010

Bill Belichick

New England Patriots

14-2

10-6

+4

2009

Marvin Lewis

Cincinnati Bengals

10-6

4-11

+6

2008

Mike Smith

Atlanta Falcons

11-5

4-12

+7

2007

Bill Belichick

New England Patriots

16-0

12-4

+4

2006

Sean Payton

New Orleans Saints

10-6

3-13

+7

2005

Lovie Smith

Chicago Bears

11-5

5-11

+6

2004

Marty Schottenheimer

San Diego Chargers

12-4

4-12

+8

It’s fascinating to see that the average AP Coach of the Year guides their team to an improvement of 6.1 games. It becomes even more intriguing when you realize that nearly all of the coaches listed at BetOnline made the playoffs last season with the exception of Mike Smith in Atlanta and Bill O’Brien in Houston. What’s even more interesting is that the odds of Mike Smith being the first head coach to be fired (+1200) are greater than the odds that he wins Coach of the Year (+1800).

Considering that the recent history indicates that the 2014-15 NFL Coach of the Year will come from a team that missed the playoffs last season, there really should be more than two candidates fitting this criterion. It’s also interesting that there are only odds available for ten of thirty two coaches with no option to bet on the field. Although there doesn’t seem to be any value on the candidates, the table below displays the current odds at BetOnline.

Coach

Team

Odds

Bill Belichick

New England Patriots

+800

John Fox

Denver Broncos

+1000

Pete Carroll

Seattle Seahawks

+1200

Sean Payton

New Orleans Saints

+1200

Chip Kelly

Philadelphia Eagles

+1400

Jim Harbaugh

San Francisco Giants

+1400

Mike McCarthy

Green Bay Packers

+1400

Mike Smith

Atlanta Falcons

+1800

Bill O'Brien

Houston Texans

+2000

Chuck Pagano

Indianapolis Colts

+2200

11/4/14 Update: Early on Tuesday morning, Bovada updated their Coach of the Year odds with Bruce Arians (+125) listed as the clear-cut favorite. Considering the Cardinals currently boast an NFC-best 7-1 record despite QB Carson Palmer missing three games due to injury, it’s easy to see why oddsmakers like Arians. It’s also interesting to see pre-season favorites like Pete Carroll, Sean Payton, Jim Harbaugh and Mike McCarthy removed as options.

The fact that Atlanta head coach Mike Smith was originally listed at +1800 to win this award now seems laughable. Smith is definitely in contention to be the next coach to be fired and might not even make it through the season.

The table below displays the current Coach of the Year odds from Bovada: