Can Osama save Bush and Blair?

Peter Mckay

Last updated at 16:34 04 May 2004

The supposed architect of the September 11, 2001 terrorist atrocities, Osama Bin Laden, is reported to be 'boxed in' by U.S. and British special forces in the mountains bordering Afghanistan and Pakistan.

His area is said to be under the gaze of a U.S. spy satellite.

Such reports must be treated with caution. The leader of Al Qaeda has been pursued by U.S., British and Pakistani forces for more than two years.

Pakistan's information minister, Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, and the Pentagon deny the latest report. However there is a new urgency to this story.

Think of what the capture of Bin Laden would do for the standing of Tony Blair and President George W. Bush. Both could proclaim their war on terrorism a success and say there will be justice at last for those who grieve for loved ones lost on 9/11.

Given their present doghouse status, Bin Laden is needed by both, but Mr Bush's need is greater. Bin Laden's capture - or proven death - by November 2 (the date of the U.S. election) could guarantee his second presidential term.

Ideally the Al Qaeda leader should be paraded publicly just before Mr Bush's 'coronation' as Republican candidate for the U.S. presidency at the party's New York convention on August 30. ( Parading him on a fire engine through Manhattan might prove a little risky).

Capturing him would certainly improve Mr Bush's standing in the opinion polls. The latest say Democrat Senator John Kerry (who has yet to be chosen as his party's candidate) would defeat him by 55 per cent to 43 per cent.

The Washington-based British writer Andrew Sullivan - normally a Bush supporter - says of the President: 'I've never seen him so passive and unresponsive, almost distracted. His off-the- cuff comments have become incoherent, even embarrassing . . .

If his response to the challenge is as feckless and haphazard as his strategy of the past six weeks, then he is in meltdown.'

Mr Bush is accused of misleading Americans about the need to invade Iraq, for the billions his business cronies are making out of that war and for tax policies at home that blatantly favour the super-rich at the expense of the poor.

He has the advantage of being the incumbent President, a war chest of Pounds 80million, and a ruthless election machine. Whichever Democrat is picked - it's now down to John Kerry or John Edwards - will face a torrent of negative publicity.

But the capture of Osama bin Laden would be a great, short-term boost.

Longer term - after Mr Bush's re-election - a living, breathing Bin Laden might be a bigger problem than one hiding in a cave in the mountains of Afghanistan.

can it be proved in court he was responsible for the hijackers who flew jet airliners into the Twin Towers, the Pentagon and a field in Pennsylvania? Is there any paperwork - or phone tapes - showing he gave instructions to the suicide team?

Large questions, but not ones to detain George and Tony as they scheme how to remain in power.