The Markets (as of market close February 27, 2017)

February 27th, 2017

Most of the benchmark indexes listed here rallied by the close of the market last Friday to finish ahead for the week. The Dow led the way by marking its 11th consecutive day of positive gains, followed by the S&P 500, which has not experienced a daily swing of more than 1.0% since mid-December. Favorable corporate earnings reports and higher oil prices, which boosted energy stocks, helped drive the large-cap indexes upward. The Nasdaq barely finished in the black, while the Russell 2000 closed down by more than a quarter of a percent.

The price of crude oil (WTI) rose, closing at $54.03 per barrel, up from the prior week’s closing price of $53.37 per barrel. The price of gold (COMEX) increased, closing at $1,258.00 by late Friday afternoon, up from the prior week’s price of $1,236.00. The national average retail regular gasoline price decreased to $2.302 per gallon on February 20, 2017, $0.005 less than the prior week’s price but $0.572 more than a year ago.

Last Week’s Headlines

Existing home sales surged in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Total existing home sales expanded 3.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.69 million from an upwardly revised 5.51 million in December. January’s sales pace is 3.8% higher than it was a year ago and is the strongest annual rate since February 2007. The median existing-home price for all housing types in January was $228,900, up 7.1% from January 2016 ($213,700). The annual price increase 232,200 in January was the fastest 12-month increase since last January (8.1%) and marks the 59th consecutive month of year-over-year gains. Inventory increased 2.4% in January, which helped fuel the increase in sales. There is a 3.6-month supply of inventory at the current sales pace. Despite rising mortgage rates and relatively scant inventory, the increase in home sales may be indicative of consumers’ confidence in the labor market and in the economy.

New home sales also picked up the pace in January. At an annual rate of 555,000 in January, new home sales were 3.7% above the revised December rate of 535,000 and 5.5% above the January 2016 estimate of 526,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2017 was $312,900 ($316,200 in December). The average sales price was $360,900 ($378,900 in December). The 265,000 new homes for sale at the end of January represents a supply of 5.7 months at the current sales rate.

Minutes from the FOMC meeting at the end of January point to a greater likelihood of an interest rate hike when the Committee next meets in March. Concerned that the pace of inflation may increase based on policy proposals from the Trump administration, some members of the Committee posed the possibility for more aggressive action, particularly if the unemployment rate falls.

Consumer sentiment was still strong in February, although the Index of Consumer Sentiment edged down to 96.3 compared to the decade peak of 98.5 recorded in January. During the past three months, the Index of Consumer Sentiment has been higher than any time since March 2004. According to Surveys of Consumers chief economist Richard Curtin, “Normally, the implication would be that consumers expected Trump’s election to have a positive economic impact. That is not the case since the gain represents the result of an unprecedented partisan divergence, with Democrats expecting recession and Republicans expecting robust growth.” Curtin further explained, “While the expectations of Democrats and Republicans largely offset each other, the overall gain in the Expectations Index was due to self-identified Independents, who were much closer to the optimism of the Republicans than the pessimism of the Democrats.”

In the week ended February 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims was 244,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained at 1.5%. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ended February 11 was 2,060,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week’s revised level. Compared to the same period last year, the number of unemployed is 9.4% lower than the 2,253,000 unemployed claimants for the week ended February 13, 2016.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Investors will be focused on the revised numbers for the Q4 GDP, as well as the latest consumer income and spending figures from January. We continue to watch the market and the economy closely but are hopefully optimistic that corporate policy and political policy will help one another during the next six months. The market has moved in anticipation of higher corporate profits which has happened and now is hopeful that the government will help with tax cuts for corporations and individuals before the end of the summer. If the government can accomplish its target the market should continue to move ahead. We continue to like Financials, Technology and Healthcare in our clients portfolio. We have reduced exposure to bonds and have looked to REITS and preferred stocks to help boost yields in our portfolio. At BWFA we cherish the opportunity to work for you and your family.