A revenge attack on Iran will be disastrous for India

While New Delhi might be performing a delicate balancing act between Iran and Israel following Monday's attack on an Israeli diplomatic vehicle in the capital, it cannot remain oblivious to the threat the conflict poses to its own interests.

India has a much larger stake in West Asia in general and Iran in particular than it would like to admit.

Iran takes care of about 11 per cent of India's oil requirements, making it our second largest supplier of crude oil after its arch rival in the Persian Gulf - Saudi Arabia.

The bomb blast in Delhi targeted an Israeli diplomatic vehicle

Any conflict involving Tehran will have disastrous consequences on India's crude oil market. The head of Iran's state oil company had said last month that the price of crude oil could cross $120 per barrel and even go as high as $150.

Though this threat was aimed mainly at the European countries in retaliation to the European Union's embargo on Iran, it has the potential of impacting India as well.

The negative effect that a steep increase in oil prices will have on India's economy cannot be overstated.

Every $10 increase in the price of crude oil shaves 50 base points from our GDP.

According to the latest edition of Goldman Sach's Asia Economic Analyst, a $10 per barrel increase will reduce India's economic growth rate by 0.2 percentage points.

The effect on India's oil marketing companies will be debilitating, to say the least. Already, the under recoveries on the sale of price-controlled fuels were as high as Rs 97,313 crore by December 2011.

While New Delhi needs to take steps to reduce its dependence on Iranian oil by searching for alternative sources, it must also resist American pressure to snap its business relationship with Tehran.

Take a cue from Bangkok

If the spectre of the first recorded use of a 'sticky-bomb' in India was not worrisome enough, it appears red-tape and communication problems are hindering Delhi's investigation even further.

The capital's police force is still seeking call details and raiding guest houses, while their counterparts in Thailand already had photos of three suspects, all of whom were then arrested.

Bangkok's explosives squad has also found and defused two other explosives while Delhi's premier bomb centre was not even given access to the crime scene.

Thai bomb squad officials inspect the site of the Bangkok explosion

Forensic officials who did make it to the spot appeared to be working without requisite gear to ensure all evidence is carefully examined.

The probe in Bangkok was surely aided by the fact that the explosives seemed to have gone off by mistake - but Delhi should have had an equivalent bit of 'luck' when the blast took place in a high-security area.

Instead, the follow-up revealed that the capital still lacks CCTVs in a number of sensitive locations - despite a government proposal to install more that was cleared months ago.

The authorities need to take a cue from Bangkok's quick, efficient response and guarantee that usual government inefficiency doesn't come in the way of ensuring the capital's safety.

A mockery of a drill

The authorities must be commended for conducting a mock drill - the largest ever of the kind in the country - to check the city's preparedness for disasters.

But it also became clear on Tuesday that such a mock drill needs to be conducted with far more seriousness if it is to fulfill its purpose.

The speed and equipment with which ambulances and fire tenders reached several sites would have left several more dead and injured than the mock toll suggested.

Volunteer 'victims' lay on the floor of the metro station platform as Delhi Metro officials gather

With the Delhi Police refusing to allow the drill at their headquarters at ITO, business establishments being closed before the appointed hour and a building actually catching fire, all was certainly not right with the operations.

The well intentioned volunteers had clearly not been trained properly, what with 'dead' victims being evacuated by them before those 'injured' and genuine patients in hospitals having to suffer their overenthusiasm.

In a nation which specialises in inefficiency, perhaps, this was to be expected. Let's only hope that with our shortcomings exposed, the next drill will be better done.