By Carlos Pallordet. As Brazil’s glow fades, the government has made the recovery of economic growth its top priority. Amid a backdrop of global uncertainty and growth deceleration, Brazilian policymakers continue to implement stimulus measures, confident that a temporary boost to aggregate demand will convince the private sector to step in and give momentum to [...]Read Full Article →

By Rajeev Kumar. Brazil has long been characterized by extreme regional disparities, with the richer south and southeast regions displaying much better socioeconomic indicators than the poorer north and northeast. A decade since Brazil’s economic growth took off, the northern part of the country continues to lag economically behind those in the south. However, the significant [...]Read Full Article →

By Carlos Pallordet. As the government announces yet another set of stimulus measures to bolster the faltering economy, market expectations for GDP growth in 2012 continue to plummet. Stagnant economic activity and a series of weak economic indicators are rapidly diluting the already modest GDP growth prospects for 2012 (Chart 1). According to the latest [...]Read Full Article →

Brazil’s Finance Minister Mantega has recently called a “joke” Credit Suisse’s Brazil GDP forecasts of just 1.5% for 2012. But the Swiss bank is not alone in its bearish views. Many other economists have been revising down Brazil’s GDP recently as the economy cools off. Capital Economics’ Neil [...]Read Full Article →

Alberto Tamer, a columnist with Estado, argues that even if stimulus measures (including tax breaks and lower interest rates) fail to revive Brazil’s economy, the government still has a “silver bullet” in the form of the primary surplus – the 2012 target is 3.1% of GDP – which the government can reduce to [...]Read Full Article →

By Mary Stokes. Brazil’s economic growth prospects for 2012 look increasingly bleak. The government has cut its GDP growth target twice in recent months, but it is regularly behind the curve. The Ministry of Finance projected GDP growth of 4.5% in 2012, according to a presentation published in April. Then, in late May, the finance [...]Read Full Article →

A recent NYT article discussed the pros and cons of the economies of Brazil and Mexico and hinted that the latter is set to surge past Brazil in its growth rate in the years ahead. Here is the author’s comments: “Brazil’s slowdown can be attributed partly to debt-burdened consumers and the erosion of industrial [...]Read Full Article →

Itau Unibanco had previously estimated that Brazil’s first quarter GDP would grow 0.6% qoq, but according to IBGE growth was more modest at only 0.2%. The bank has also predicted that this year the Brazilian economy was going to grow 3.1%, one of the most optimistic forecasts in the market. However, given the weak economic [...]Read Full Article →

Apparently, the mixed economic forecasts are all over… According to some analysts, the negative growth in the eurozone area this year will not prevent China and Brazil GDP growth to re-accelerate in 2013. In China’s case, the media in general agrees that the economic downturn is already taking place with GDP growth target lowered to about [...]Read Full Article →

By Jennifer Kahn. It may be a time of uncertainty for Brazil, not just because of recent disappointing economic data, but also because of a drop in demand stemming in part from Europe’s recession. The Brazilian economy grew by just 2.7 percent in 2011, a steep descent from 7.5 percent growth in 2010. Analysts’ surveyed by Bloomberg [...]Read Full Article →

This is an excerpt from an article written couple weeks ago by Mr. Ruchir Sharma, the Managing Director and Head of global emerging markets at Morgan Stanley. His original article was published on Foreign Affairs and is called “Bearish on Brazil,” an excerpt from his new book “Breakout Nations.” Article’s highlights below… “Until recently, [...]Read Full Article →

According to the private bank, Brazil will suffer lower growth and higher inflation in 2012 than previously expected. Here is from a recently revised economic outlook released today: “We have revised our forecasts for interest rates, the exchange rate, growth and inflation. We now believe that the Selic will fall to 7.75%, instead of 8.5%. We [...]Read Full Article →

Have you ever heard this joke? An economist is asked to describe his country’s situation in a single word. He answers: “Good.” Then he is as asked if he could describe it in two words. He answers: “Not good.” I was reminded of that joke this week. I asked the celebrated economist Amartya Sen, who [...]Read Full Article →

Former Brazilian Finance Minister Delfim Netto said recently that the country’s GDP should grow between 3.6% and 3.7% this year, more than the 3% forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Delfim Netto, as usual, downplayed the importance of estimates, both his and IMF’s. “What will 2012 be in terms of growth is not yet built,” he said, mocking analysts who project GDP growth below 3% this year, considering these same analysts were way off [...]Read Full Article →

Janus Capital’s EM strategist Matt Hochstetler has offered some of his views on Brazil’s economy, saying that the country exchanged a bit of short term pain for long term gains. In his recent FT article, he says that despite the lagging GDP growth in the last two quarters, the future “remains bright.” According to [...]Read Full Article →

According to a special report published today on Brazil, Fitch Ratings believes that the country’s current slowdown is cyclical in nature and that economic growth is likely to return to its potential rate. Fitch notes that Brazil’s sources of economic growth have not suffered a structural deterioration in their growth trend and, to the contrary, [...]Read Full Article →

Brazil’s government says the nation’s economy expanded 2.7 per cent last year. That’s well below the 7.5 per cent growth seen in 2010. The GDP figure underscores central bank President Alexandre Tombini’s view that the economy is growing below capacity amid Europe’s debt crisis, reinforcing bets that the central bank may accelerate the pace of [...]Read Full Article →