Sunday, March 30, 2008

It looks as if Bad Bob Mugabe has lost yesterday's Zimbabwe Presidential election. The elections seem to have been more or less fair (a bad sign for the dictator right there), but the giveaway is that the results aren't coming out yet.

If the dictator is having to so blatantly rig the count, he has already lost. It indicates two things: (1) the anti-Mugabe vote was so high that minor tampering won't work; and (2) that the other controls: the administration of the poll itself, together with intimidation and violence against opponents -- have already failed.

Okay, now comes the real election. How good are your police Bob ? Are your bureaucrats and goons going to obey now, or save themselves by throwing your carcass off the palace balcony ?

Reuters reports that Zimbabwe's resident tin-pot, Robert Mugabe, is handing out cars to doctors in advance of Saturday's supposed elections. It's not only cars for doctors, but the Mugabe regime is handing out farm equipment, buses, probably even dates with Spitzer's whores.

The opposition is accusing the Leader of "vote-buying." Ha. Shows what they know, although it might work for Hillary and Obama on their superdelegates. Actually, Tyrant Mugabe's not buying votes from the doctors, or anybody else, nor is he paying very much.

In the first place (even assuming the doctors are allowed by Mugabe's goons to actually drive off in these cars) they probably won't get very far: how are they going to fuel the things ? Most gas stations are closed -- Mugabe's not got the foreign exchange to afford fuel for ordinary people. Gas is just one economic worry: as an: 80 percent unemployment and a 100,580 percent inflation rate possibly illustrate. Bread is Zim$ 25 million (62 cents US). Maybe the doctors can sell their cars abroad for food (good luck getting them out). Besides, who wants gifts like that ? Mugabe can just take them back again the day after the "elections." The whole exercise is less about buying votes than showing Mugabe's goons that the Boss still has perks to give out and impressing Doubting Thomases with the regime's power.

These "elections" are more interesting than normal for Zimbabwe (so far, their national history is "one man, one vote, once"). This time round there may actually be real opposition to the 84 year old Mr. Mugabe. No, not Morgan Tsvangirai. Brave as Mr. Tsvangirai is, the real opposition is the former Minister of Finance and Development, SimbaMakoni, a defector from Mr. Mugabe's own party. Mr. Makoni might actually have a prayer at winning the real election -- that is, getting the security forces and the party apparatto turn on Mr. Mugabe. More likely he'll wind up dead or exiled.

Still, the Bloomberg piece linked above (in connection with the inflation number) says that the mining industry and its investors are betting that Fat Bob's days as Jefe of Zimbabwe are numbered. Quite possibly correct, but I seriously doubt the vehicle will be a free and fair election. More likely a case of lead poisoning.

Being a dictator/man of destiny like Fat Bob is a hard job: both physically and mentally challenging and possibly beyond the ability of an 84 year old to keep performing much longer. The basic elements of the President for Life gig are a source of foreign exchange; rich people (who didn’t flee in time) for the Leader to expropriate; a foreign enemy to rhetorically rail against; and a youngish leader who has the stones for the job.

Most importantly, dictatorship is not a one man occupation -- the supporting cast is essential. You need lots of young idiots mouthing slogans, stiffened by a cadre of careerists without scruples who’d jail their own mommas for a spiffy uniform and a percentage; plus ceaseless mobilization of everybody and everything (to keep an eye on people and make them feel important all at once – like Chavez’s “Bolivarian Circles”, the Soviet “Young Pioneers” or the Hitler Youth). Finally, the would-be boss thrives with a compliant bureaucracy that doesn't ask questions if the forms are in order, and plenty of good lawyers. The business class might not be an obstacle if the Leader keeps the graft in reasonable bounds: with some lawyers they'll become good at gaming the system to their own advantage and using it to crush their smaller rivals.

A good extra is an obvious hated minority for ordinary slugs to feel superior to (recent example would be Tibetans to Han Chinese). Also, dictators need some Useful Idiots (academic or media types are best) to run interference in the US and Euro media. Take all this, add a dash of good propaganda, and you have the makings of a real successful and long-running cult-of-personality People’s Democracy.

But the dictator ecosystem eventually breaks down, usually over the leadership succession; or the economy seizes up (too much spending, nothing left to steal); or the dictator allows rivals to develop as he ages. Sometimes all three, which is what seems to be happening in Zimbabwe. The story usually ends badly. . .and in Fat Bob Mugabe's case, here’s hoping it’s sooner, rather than later.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Today’s Washington Post online has an interesting op-ed piece by a former weapons inspector in Iraq, Jay Davis on the dreadful subject of what would happen after a nuclear 9/11. Mr. Davis serves on one of the alphabet-soup federal offices our government is so adept at creating: the “Threat Reduction Advisory Committee” of the Department of Defense. (No doubt they have some very spiffy letterhead). Specifically, Mr. Davis is concerned with the arcane field of “nuclear forensics” – in this context the analysis of “isotopic signatures” and other characteristics of nuclear explosions to determine the likely source of the nuclear materials used.

Mr. Davis points out that after 9/11, the time between the fall of the twin towers and “our response in Afghanistan” was a month, and Mr. Davis argues that we need to better prepare for a “nuclear 9/11” so as to better finger the perpetrators, because “current US nuclear forensics capability. . .can’t guarantee definitive information within a month of an attack” This is a concern because, among other things, “we won’t have months to respond. There would be enormous pressure to rapidly identify the terrorists and the chain of events leading up to the attack.”

Well, that’s an understatement if ever there was one. Mr. Davis suggests that we need to improve the speed and accuracy of our nuclear forensics: the better to obtain essential “international collaboration” and to assemble the proof that it will take for the “world to believe our analysis.” Finally, Mr. Davis says, “we need to manage expectations and prepare for the inevitable political pressure to respond quickly after an attack.”

I agree that Mr. Davis raises some valid concerns and good ideas, and that improving the US nuclear forensics capability would indeed be sound policy. But if anybody thinks that the people of the United States would tolerate lawyer bingo or interminable investigations by alphabet soup agencies to assemble proof satisfactory enough for the talking heads and the international UN bonzes to produce “international collaboration” in the wake of a city-buster, nuclear 9/11 type attack – then they are smoking crack.

“Manage expectations ?” “Prepare for political pressure ?” Brother. If Mr. Davis’s nightmare ever happens, we’re not talking about “nuclear forensics” anymore. A nuclear attack on an American city, by terrorists, foreign states, or whoever, would change all of the rules overnight. The alphabet soup/special commission/study group games that Washington so loves would go right by the boards, and quite possibly the Constitution and everything else we accept as normal. If for example, Al Qaeda were to launch such a nuclear attack on the United States, we would no longer be talking about the rights of detainees at Guantanamo; or US compliance with the Geneva Conventions; or the appropriate UN resolutions; or proof of culpability – but instead, the question of permitting the continued existence, period, of Al Qaeda supporters, and the cities and cultures that feed them – anyplace on this planet. Hopefully, we elect to put more money, talent and thought into apocalypse prevention than we do into apocalypse studies.

Last week was very slow in the Kingdom, due mostly to Spring Break and Easter; plus a dinner party for El Jefe (which was lots of fun) and brief trips out of town at the beginning and the end of the week.

SWMBO had a bug requiring a visit to the local medicos over the weekend. Everything is (very thankfully) okay, but the doctor visit took longer than anticipated, so to pass the time while inhabiting waiting rooms and similar places, El Jefe stepped next door and invested in Jonathan Kellerman's excellent thriller,Obsession. In Obsession, Kellerman's usual protagonist, psychologist Alex Delaware, teams-up yet again with his friend, LAPD Detective Milo Sturgis, to solve a cryptic mystery left by the deceased guardian of an old patient of Dr. Delaware. Lots of seedy bad guys and other interesting characters, and plenty of oh-my-gosh situations ensure that you won't want to put this one down. Burned through it in an evening plus a lunch time.

In other reading, I'm presently working on the second volume of Shelby Foote's trilogy The Civil War. Made some progress in it over the break, and just got through Foote's discussion of Gettysburg and Vicksburg. Since El Jefe's of a somewhat pro-Southern persuasion, the rest of the history is sort of downhill, so it's apt to take longer than I originally anticipated to plow through these excellent books.

Plenty of other books are waiting around: when I'm done with Mr. Foote, I think I'm going to change areas entirely and read Adam Tooze's economic history of the Nazi German economy: The Wages of Destruction. I've had this one sitting around for about a year, and have grazed in it a good amount already, but it deseves some more concentrated attention. Mr. Tooze's economic perspective of the constraints (real and perceived) driving German (i.e. Hitler's) decision making in World War II and the years leading up to it is right up my alley, and, in my opinion, long overdue.

On a somewhat lighter note: I keep meaning to read Mario Puzo's The Sicilian(one of his I managed to miss). Also, I have Stephen White'sDry Ice (at last out in paper), which I hope to make a start on soon.

Plus, there's always real life, which lately has had lots to recommend it, plus working (paying the bills, I have found, is usually approved of). In any case, some of this is the reason for the, er, absence of much posting over the past week. El Jefe (and all in the Kingdom save the ever-vigilant Organs of State Security) are in catch-up mode this week, particularly at work. Never fear, something will appear presently: I'm working on something about Iraq, as well as on the business in Tibet.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Last night, SWMBO and I accompanied our friends the C's to the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo last night. The Rodeo is a Ciudad El Jefe institution, and almost always puts on events worth attending. We wandered around the carnival, drank a little beer, looked at the knick-knacks on sale in the Exhibit Hall, had dinner, and then wandered into Reliant Stadium to hear Fergie.

Now, El Jefe (when he listens to music) generally listens to XM Satellite Radio, or his own considerable music collection. El Jefe'spreferred musical entertainment collection is somewhat eclectic, heavily sauced with lots of 80's stuff, a good deal of classical music, some country, a big soundtrack collection, and weird things like the occasional album of DeutscheMarschmusik or the Band of the Coldstream Guards. One of the downsides to these habits is that, by virtue of market segmentation and, er, eccentricity -- El Jefe is perhaps less aware of what is new, and gets somewhat culturally disconnected. In general, I don't see this as too much of a loss, but there are exceptions. In any case, I didn't know much about Fergie, other than what I'd heard from occasional blasts from the Heir's I-Pod or whatever that thing is. Somewhat to my own surprise, I was very impressed, although perhaps the beer helped.

The audience had a lot of kids (teens and adolescents) many of whom were up far past what should have been their proper bedtimes. They, of course, loved Fergie, and were dancing in the aisles, but she didn't leave the adults out either, playing some Led Zeppelin and some Heart so that us fogies felt included also. Fergie put on a really good show, and gave the audience their money's worth.

Friday, March 14, 2008

Normally, I am not a video person. I much prefer paper, and reading something, to video or audio. Occsionally, however, there are exceptions, and John McCain's splendid You Tube video ad "Man in the Arena" is one of them, and it's definitely worth your time. Check it out and pass it on.

El Jefe is snoozing in his verandah armchair, and all is quiet. His glass of scotch is on the wicker table at his side, along with FLINKY the cat, yesterday's Daily Telegraph and Count Ciano's diaries. But where are we ? Maybe it's El Jefe's rent-a-palace, because for some unexplained reason, a sign over the palácio entrance proclams that the place is the Palácio del Gobierno de Nuevo York. Out on the palace grounds, for some strange reason (dreams are like that) steamrollers are cruising around, but quietly, so as not to awaken the Great One.

Meanwhile, El Jefe slumbers on, dreaming no doubt of Jenny McCarthy, lunch in Estoril (or was it Seaside ?), and sunsets in Baja. As the Maximum Leader snores, El Jefe's faithful retainer, bodyguard and very old-school Prussian major-domo, Fritz, approaches, carrying a ginormous silver platter with a huge telephone on it; which he plugs in. Momentarily ditching his German accent in favour of that of an English butler (all the while carefully avoiding dropping his monocle in El Jefe's scotch) Fritz intones: "The phone, sir. It's Mr. Churchill in London."

And the alarm rings. . .dragging the Great One back to a much, much less interesting and pleasant reality. Have been hard at work this week on the day job, so less time for posting than I would like. Hopefully, I will make up for that soon. Too, too much of interest going on in the world -- precious little that's good. If you're in a tall building, look outside, you might see the dollar or the occasional banker falling like a stone. Don't jump after them yet though.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

I was going to have more to say on the Spitzer mess in New York, but Beldar's superb and legally well-informed posts (here and here) over at Beldar Blog make my projected post superfluous. Be sure to check them out.

I had wondered why the Governor was delaying a resignation. Had Mr. Spitzer been genuinely contrite, or even a gentleman, he would have resigned and disappeared into seclusion, without comments or press conferences; without dragging his wife in front of the cameras, immediately upon this matter becoming public. Beldar's musings about negotiations for a plea-bargain possibly being in the works provide at least a tactical explanation for his behavior these last two days in hanging on to his office. I suppose that it is too much to expect that a man would refrain from using an office of state as some kind of a bargaining chip: that he would put his duty to his office and to the electors ahead of saving his own skin.

Apparently, the Chinese authorities have decided to clean up Beijing in advance of the Olympic Games, so they are rounding up cats, including pets, and shipping them off to die in "death camps" on the edge of Beijing. There is an official government advertising and propaganda campaign to gin-up paranoia about diseases carried by cats, and, according to the article in the Daily Mail "ordering residents to help clear the streets of them." Pet owners are being intimidated by the government into abandoning their pets.

Animal welfare groups in China are protesting -- and in that country, protesting government decisions of any kind is truly heroic.

What other government in the world could get away with such a thing ? Given some other things the Chinese do, I don't suppose that this latest outrage should be a surprise, but deliberate starvation and killing of so many otherwise unoffending cats, including pets, who depend on humans for their welfare and protection shocks the conscience.

What can we do ? Not much, unfortunately, beyond telling as many people as possible what the Chinese are doing to their cats; and avoid viewing the televised Olympic Games; boycotting the broadcast's advertisers and not buying as many Chinese knick-knacks as we can.

Sunday, March 9, 2008

El Jefe and SWMBO attended a family wedding yesterday, then El Jefe dropped-in on friend T and her family. Sat up till the wee small hours drinking red wine on their back deck. Spent the smaller hours drinking gobs of water to avoid the consequences.

Woke up with a minor winehead, (although nothing like what I deserved). SWMBO helped cure it by dispatching me to the Kolache shop for breakfast. It is almost never a good idea to send El Jefe on a foraging expedition before breakfast, and today was no exception, I came back with plenty of goodies. Fortunately, the Kolache Factory is next door to the local Starbucks, and a vente black coffee and some baked edibles did wonders for my disposition.

Hurrah ! Normal time has at last returned. I hate Fall Back but love Spring Forward. El Jefe is totally pumped about the arrival of Daylight Frikkin Normal Savings Time this morning. Now it's not black as a coal-pit at 6 p.m. Saw some schweinehundproposing to get rid of Daylight Savings Time in favor of Standard Time the other day. I don't know about folks near the east coast and in the northern latitudes, where the sun appears on a slightly different schedule, but those of us in flyover country like our long evenings, thank you very much. Anyway, I'd keep Daylight Savings Time year round.

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Actually, I keep coming back to it in many ways: it's my favorite vacation spot, and I'm so hoping that a trip to Seaside is in the not-too-distant future. But today, I'm coming back to it for a much less pleasant purpose.

I still remember watching Tim Russert the night of the crazy 2000 election, writing "Florida ! Florida ! Florida !" on a marker-board sometime during that long evening, when it became apparent that everything was going to boil down to dimpled chads in the Florida boonies.

Anyway, it's back to Florida (and Michigan) again. As is well known, the Democratic National Committee is refusing to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates, because those States violated that entity's edicts on the timing of their primaries. It looks to me like, if Hillary Clinton is to have any chance at all at capturing her party's nomination, that she will have to have these delegates.

As best I can determine from a very unscientific and rapid internet search, there are approximately 210 Florida Democratic delegates, and of these, Hilla would garner approximately 111; St. Barack 69; Edwards 13; with 17 unpledged).

Michigan would have 156, with Hilla taking 81; the Chosen One 57; and 18 remaining undeclared. This is avoiding the whole pledged/unpledged question, and laying aside the question of unpledged and undecided delegates.

As of today, according to the Real Clear Politics delegate totals, giving Obama 1546, and Clinton 1449, (advantage to Obama of 97 delegates), addition of the Florida delegates would close the gap to 31 delegates in Obama's favor (St. Barack 1672, Hilla 1641).

I don't see how Hillary can avoid some kind of effort to put these States back on the board. I really think she must try.

How to do it ? How to accomplish this without looking like a cheater for changing the rules ? Answer: she can't -- the best she can do is to finesse the issue, move first and challenge (with as much fanfare as possible) Obama to have the Florida and Michigan elections over again. She must do it this way -- she cannot try to claim the delegates outright, because the cries of "foul" might prompt the superdelegates to intervene and end the contest.

To build momentum, she needs for the do-over to occur after the Pennsylvania primary (Tuesday 22 April) -- which she must win big. Senator Clinton must pose as the champion of counting all the votes, the defender of Florida and Michigan Democrats, and invoke the memory of the disputed 2000 Presidential election.

If Obama stands on his rights, and declares his intention to abide by the DNC's earlier determination, I think he's got a problem, because he's cutting against the great Democratic totem that "every vote must count." Ultimately, he'll have to go along with it, because he dare not offend Florida Democrats if he wants to win come November.

Hillary has to hope that, in a do-over, she can do as well as she did the first go-round. This also assumes that she will do well in Pennsylvania. But more importantly, she has to hope that Obama balks and refuses initially -- hurting his chances on a re-do. But she really must try it -- she must do something to get those votes.

Conclusion: the party with the advantage is the party proposing the re-do first.

Senator McCain is now officially the nominee, and is to appear at the White House today to receive the President's official endorsement. The Republicans, in what will be a hard year for them anyway, enjoy great good fortune by having as their candidate the only man in their field this year who had any chance at all. Congratulations to Senator McCain.

For the first time, St. Barack looks a little rattled -- maybe Hillary's blitz 'em with everything strategy got to him. Memo to the McCainacs: attacking Obama works. Try it -- get in his face a little and tell him "No You Can't." Wonder if Hillary would have done better going that way sooner ?

But the media coverage today is what's really interesting here. I guess the Saturday Night Line skit got the reporters off the dime, and got them asking Obama some questions that they should have been asking a long time ago. You'd expect the storyline today to be all about Hilla the Wonder/Underdog; the tough one; battling on against the odds, yadda, yadda, yadda. But the line of the day is math and delegate numbers. The Candidate of Hope and his surrogates aren't talking about hope and unity and all that happy Barbra Streisand they've been pushing for weeks-- they're talking about superdelegates and proportional representation, winning in the end and hopelessness for Hillary; and the media's following suit. As John Podhoretz recognizes this morning, this treatment of Mrs. Clinton's resurrection by the media -- ignoring her wins, and talking about the numbers -- just shows how much the media political junkies, want, want, want their precious Messiah, St. Barack of Obama.

Finally, there's been a minor kerfluffle in the past hour about Hillary hinting at a shared ticket: Mrs. Clinton's quoted this morning as saying that such an outcome "may be where this is headed." However, Mrs. Clinton correctly notes that "of course we have to decide who is on the top of [the] ticket" and she adds that the "people of Ohio very clearly said that it should be me." That's the Hillary we know ! Who could imagine any other outcome ? Here's hoping she and Obama fight this one out for a good while yet.

Monday, March 3, 2008

AFP reports that Israeli military intelligence has identified some of the rockets Hamas has been firing into Israel of late from Gaza as being of Iranian manufacture. In a significant escalation of the terrorist organization's rocket harassment of Israel, about a dozen of the rockets Hamas fired into Israel hit the city of Ashkelon (pop. 120,000) over the weekend. Ashkelon is 11 miles north of Gaza.

The Iranian rockets in question are originally of Russian design. The Russian version, the BM-21 "Grad" ("Hail"), is a 122 mm rocket-artillery weapon, meant to be fired in volleys of about 40 from a truck-mounted launcher. The Iranians manufacture at least three versions (also truck-mounted), all of which have a range of about 12 and a half miles. If you have your map of Israel handy, a Grad rocket fired from Gaza could make it a little over half-way to Ashdod, up the coast from Gaza (that is, right to Ashkelon); or, if fired from the middle of the Gaza Strip, about half-way to Beersheba, in south-central Israel. The weapon can carry high explosive/fragmentation, chemical or incendiary warheads

In general. rocket-artillery of this type is less accurate than plain-old tube artillery, but it can drop lots of explosives in a target area in only a few minutes.

The appearance of the Iranian rockets in Gaza is ominous, on several levels. The Israelis are gradually being forced to become accustomed to bombardment by longer-range rockets, of a more sophisticated type than the home-made Qassams hitherto used by Hamas. There is no realistic way for the Israeli military or civil defense to distinguish -- prior to the explosion -- between a Qassamcarrying homemade explosives and a 122-mm Grad carrying a chemical warhead, or military-grade explosive.

The appearance of these rockets is proof-positive, if any were needed, that the Iranians have the ability to smuggle heavy weapons into Gaza. Iran's client Hezbollah's already got a launch-pad in southern Lebanon -- we saw it in operation in 2006. Now, Israel's enemies (Iran at the back of them again) are developing a second rocket launching point in Gaza. Probably, heavier weapons will soon make their appearance, much as happened with Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is extremely unlikely the rockets came in by sea -- most likely they arrived over the Egyptian land border during the disturbances there, which doesn't say much that's good about the likely state of affairs across that border.

Can the Israelis really afford to sit quietly and allow the Iranians to work on their nuclear weapon ? I honestly don't see how. They either have to clear out Lebanon and Gaza, or they have to make sure the Iranians never get their nuke.

The Iranians are playing a very dangerous game. Do they understand that, or not ?

Monday morning at the Palace of El Jefe. . .not a creature is stirring, except the Secret Police, and the faithful, ever watchful gumba guards. Otherwise, all is quiet and all are happily snoozing in the arms of Morpheus: the valets, the cooks, the great and the good, the off-track betting manager, the sports steroids commissioner, and the prelates of the state chuch. . .El Jefe, the cats SWMBO and the Heir are sleeping also, dreaming of stock-certificates, gold futures, zero-coupon bonds, bon-bons, good scotch and catnip. But wait: for some reason, El Jefe's Jenny McCarthy look-alike mistress is shaking him...trying to wake him up.

No...no, it's the alarm clock, a most annoying thing, and back I come to reality.

Sorry I've been slacking-off in the posting department lately. El Jefe and his cat FLINKY skipped town this weekend and went up to the country palace, and did little but yardwork, reading and movie-watching. Not even a thought of something so ghastly as politics.

Back late last night and poured through the papers and blogs this morning. My horseback guess this morning is that Hillary is doing better, and that she might well surprise Obama here in Texas. My unofficial soundings this morning from some people who might know tend to confirm this feeling. Among other things, I think that a lot of Republicans who should know better are going to go vote for Hillary just to make trouble. I wonder if that hurts McCain, or if these people will wind up being protest voters who aren't quite ready to have McCain as their candidate yet ? I will examine all this further as time allows.