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Saturday, February 10, 2018

U.S. Strategy in Syria is Failing

By: Matti Suomenaro and the ISW Syria Team

Key
Takeaway: America's adversaries in Syria are using military force to undermine
U.S. forces and their partners. The Russian and Iranian military coalition
backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad coordinated a major attack against the
U.S.-led Anti-ISIS Coalition in Eastern Syria. The U.S. responded tactically by
striking its attackers in self defense, stopping the offensive. But this tactical
success demonstrates that U.S. strategy in Syria is failing. Russia and Iran
seek ways to capitalize on U.S. failures and act to constrain, disrupt, and
ultimately expel the U.S. from Syria and the Middle East. Turkey, meanwhile,
has invaded Syria to challenge Kurdish forces, some of which the U.S. backs.
The U.S. risks losing the gains it has made fighting ISIS to Russia and Iran.

Russia
and Iran intentionally attacked U.S. and partnered forces in Eastern Syria. Several hundred pro-Syrian regime
fighters launched a “coordinated
attack”
against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – the main U.S. partner in Syria –
in Eastern Deir ez-Zour province on February
7. The U.S. has long had its own military personnel in the base. The U.S.
responded with successful force
protection strikes.

The
U.S. must help stabilize Eastern Syria in order to prevent ISIS from returning
to its stronghold in Ar-Raqqa City, from which anti-ISIS coalition drove the
terrorist organization in late 2017.The U.S. is using its primary
ground partner – the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – to
restore some semblance of civilian life in formerly ISIS-held terrain. U.S.
military personnel advise these partners. These efforts also serve to contain
the influence of Russia and Iranian proxies in Eastern Syria, which the U.S.
has partially constrained to the south side of the Euphrates.

Russia, Iran, and the Syrian regime
planned the operation in advance. They began preparing the attack weeks in advance and aimed to increase
Iranian presence east of the Euphrates River in order to seize valuable oil and
gas fields. Russia and Iran have for months sought to reintegrate by force
critical areas in Eastern Syria held by the SDF - including Ar-Raqqa City as well as key oil and
natural gas fields in Eastern Syria - back into the Assad regime. The oil and gas
fields are critical for stabilizing the Syrian economy and Assad's regime. They also provide a source of revenue for these Russian and Iranian
efforts.

Russia used proxy partners and
official messaging to obfuscate its involvement, using a hybrid warfare technique common
in Ukraine. Russian private
military contractors and Lebanese Hezbollah [1] participated in the attack. Russian officers maintained continuous communication with U.S. military
officials through the deconfliction hotline during the attack in order
to obfuscate Russia’s direct role in the incident. Russia both supported the
attack and simultaneously gave the impression of genuine efforts to prevent the
attack in order to confuse senior U.S. decision makers.

U.S.
deterrence in Syria is failing. Russian and Iranian-backed forces had already
directly challenged U.S. forces and their partners twice in 2017. Russia and Iran conducted similar
probing attacks near Ar-Raqqa
City
and the U.S.-Rebel Base on the Syrian-Iraqi Border in
mid-2017 prompting the U.S. to conduct protective strikes. Russia and Iran
successfully concluded operations to limit U.S.
freedom of movement of in Eastern Syria, including theseizureof Abu Kamal on
the Iraqi-Syrian Border in November 2017. The U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition is
also struggling to deter similar attacks by Turkey against U.S. partners in
Northern Syria. The U.S. has forces deployed between Turkish-backed forces and
U.S. partners near Manbij in Northern Syria in order to deter an expansion of
Turkish operations. Senior U.S. officials are conducting diplomatic visits to Turkey to negotiate
a de-escalation of territory around Manbij as a future flashpoint between
Turkish-backed forces and U.S. partners.

Turkish
military operations in Northern Syria have created opportunities that Russia
and Iran tried to exploit.The Turks invaded Syria’s Northern Afrin region on January 20 to
oust from the area Kurdish forces, some of which are fighting an insurgency
against Turkey. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Eastern Syrian and other
Kurdish forces consider losing a primarily Kurdish district to Turkey as an
existential threat. SDF reinforcements have therefore deployed to northwestern
Syria in order to defend Kurdish-majority Afrin. These reinforcements included
the U.S. armed Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) – the main component of the SDF –
and several other SDF-subcomponents including the U.S.-trained
Raqqa Internal Security Forces intended to stabilize post-ISIS
Ar-Raqqa City. The battle against Turkey in northwestern Syria distracts the
SDF from the fight against ISIS in Eastern Syria.

The U.S. is drawing down in Iraq and Syria while
all other actors are escalating. The four-star headquarters responsible for the
Middle East announced on February 7 that the U.S. was drawing
down some of its air power and intelligence assets from
Iraq and Syria. U.S. Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump have tried to
isolate the fight against ISIS from the rest of the Syrian Civil War. In
contrast, U.S. enemies, adversaries, and even allies correctly see the problems
in Syria as intertwined. The
U.S. must recognize it cannot sustainably pursue its objectives in Syria
without taking into account the objectives of Russia, Iran, and Turkey. The
U.S. must formulate a comprehensive Syria policy and commit the necessary
resources to accomplish American interests rather than declare arbitrary victory
and withdraw.