Fantasy Basketball Pros

If you were picking in a head-to-head league and had a late first round pick, how could you build a perfect fantasy team? It's pretty simple actually. You need to win 5 categories strongly in fantasy to be successful. So pick Dwight Howard first and then steve nash and rajon rondo with the next picks. Pair them with Blake Griffin or Josh Smith and guys you can take later such as Mike Conley and Jose Calderon and you will dominate some form of FG%, 3s, rebounds, assists and steals while totally punting FT%, points and TOs. Remember it never matters how much you lose a category by but only how many you win in the playoffs when it counts.

As usual, this depends on the strength of your team - Rose has had an MVP-type season, but if you focus on FT %, 3s, points and steals, Curry may be the better man to have. Rose has a slight advantage in assists and rebounds and has had better health, but a straight up trade for the probable league MVP may not be a wise move in this case.

Andrew Bynum will overexert himself in the summer and reaggravate his knee injury.In Bynum's exit interview with the media he said he would be ready to begin running in early July and from that point on he hopes to work with the same personal trainer that he did last summer (READ: the guy who helped Bynum bulk up and become the up-and-coming superstar center that we witnessed early last season). The first thing that comes to mind for me is whether he will be cautious enough to take the appropriate precautions so that he does not reaggrevate his serious injuries from last year. If he doesn't the Lakers may have to make due with what they had last season.

Mitch Kupchak does not make any strategic veteran acquisitions.One of the greatest changes Kupchak made in the last couple of seasons outside (1) the acquisition of Pau Gasol and (2) not trading away Andrew Bynum was signing Derek Fisher. Fisher brought veteran leadership to one of the league's youngest teams and acted as a mentor for some of the Lakers' young guards (Sasha and Jordan). If the Lakers are to win the championship next year, they very well may need to take a page out of the Celtics' book and sign a strong, savvy veteran PF or SF to handle the physical attacks that opponents will bring at them. The league knows now that strong, tough, physical defense can slow down the Lakers, so LA will have to preempt these new schemes my getting bigger, more aggressive veteran players that can play big in the middle.

Kobe Bryant doesn't have enough in the tank/can't recover from pinkie injury.Lets face it. Kobe Bryant has probably played more regular season, postseason and USA team games the last 10 years than any player in the NBA. He's also a ferocious gym rat when he's not "in season" (if you can ever say that). One might wonder how long Bryant can keep up such a torrid pace amid his increasing age and his minor injuries. If Bryant comes out sluggish in 2009 due to fatigue or he cannot sufficiently recover from an inevitable pinkie operation after the Olympics, the Lakers may have to begin the season without their superstar MVP, perhaps hampering their ability to win a championship.

The West becomes too competitive.The Lakers may improve 10 fold and still not win the 2009 NBA Championship if they simply cannot get out of their uber-competitive conference. At least 5 teams that I can think of in the West could have been in the Finals this year (and might have even matched up better against the C's) and if the competition increases, it just may be too difficult for the Lakers to get back to the Finals.

Their team defense/physical toughness does not improve.Phil Jackson probably realizes that team defense is probably the single most important thing he needs to teach to his young team this summer. The Lakers also need to improve their toughness around the basket, which I believe can only happen if Pau Gasol is "broken down" and rebuilt as a physical interior defender and post player (no more facing the basket).

Andrew Bynum will be healthy (at least we hope).Bynum averaged 13 points, 10 boards and 2 blocks a game in only 28 minutes a contest last season. He shot 64% from the field and was a steady big man in the middle for the Lakers not only on the offensive side, but on the otherwise weak Lakers defensive interior. He provided many of the Lakers defenders a last resort in the paint if their man got by them. He’s young, he’s tough and he’s shown he can bulk up and be the player that Kobe Bryant wants to play alongside of—as evidenced by his emergence early on this season.

Kobe Bryant will be hungrier than ever to win another NBA Championship.Not many players can say they have won three world championships. At the same time, not many can say they’ve lost 2 in a row, either. Kobe Bryant is the utmost competitor and you can be sure that he will be working hard all summer to make it back to the Finals. It’ll start with the Olympics, and I’m sure it will end with countless hours spent in the gym pumping iron while his pinky recovers from an inevitable surgery that will need to be performed. Jackson will continue to harp to Kobe the importance of team basketball (which evaporated from his mind during the Finals) and the need to develop young players. Expect Kobe to take fewer shots next season in favor of more assists, more rebounds and better defense. He’s won the scoring title with out Shaq, the MVP of the regular season without Shaq, and will be wholeheartedly determined to win that elusive Title without Shaq next season.

Pau Ga-soft and Lamar O-Dumb will come into the season BIGGER and MORE FOCUSED.There’s no doubt in any of our minds that these two players have the talent and the potential to be superstars in this league. In Pau’s case, he rolled through the playoffs in the West without many roadblocks, but encountered a much too physical, energetic and determined Kevin Garnett in the Finals. In the early stages of Game 6, Pau’s main drawback was brought front-and-center when he was nonchalantly tossed to the ground by a quick, physical move by Kevin Garnett. If the Lakers are going to win a championship against a team like the Celtics next season, Pau Gasol will need to hit the gym harder than he ever has this summer (and this will be hard because he will be playing for Spain in the Olympics), work with Kareem (Lakers Special Assistant Coach for big men) on his positioning and toughness on the block, and improve his soft defense. In Lamar’s case, the man just needs to be more focused and keep his head in the game for 48 minutes. Stupid fouls on the defensive side, overambitious drives to the hoop that result in offensive fouls on the offensive side, and just the general stupor that he usually finds himself in during big games HURTS the Lakers. Lamar needs to mature (and something tells me after this year’s Finals he will) and needs to understand exactly what the Lakers need from him—a focused intensity mirroring that of Kevin Garnett’s.

The Lakers bench will improve with this experience.Without the emergence of Sasha, Jordan and Ronnie during different parts of the season AND playoffs for the Lakers, LA probably wouldn’t have earned the Number 1 seed in the West and home court for that duration. The Lakers bench was completely unknown to the league before this year and going forward I believe the confidence and experience that many of the young players on the bench have collected will help them going into next season. Sasha should continue to improve his defense so that he can stay with the leagues premier SGs (Allen just clowned him last game). Jordan should look to put a little muscle on and improve his jump shot (especially his three). And Ronnie should continue working on his low-post defense and mid-range jump shot.

The Lakers will improve their defense.Lets be honest, the Lakers had no real trouble scoring against any team this year outside of the Boston Celtics. What they did have trouble with at times was TEAM DEFENSE. We all know Kobe has been All-NBA First Team Defense and that Lamar is a crafty defender as well, but the Lakers have really struggled with their spacing on defense. Routinely during the Finals, a player would get beat and nobody would be at home in the middle to help. I think Jackson and his entire coaching staff will begin to preach defense more and more this summer to the team. It will help enormously if Bynum can come back from his knee injuries and solidify the center of the defense like he did early on in the 07-08 season.

Check back in next time for the five reasons the Lakers will NOT win the NBA Championship next year.

I think we are in store for one of the best NBA Playoffs ever. The stories, the rivalries and the level of competition are all as strong as ever. The Western Conference will be hotly contested and the Eastern Conference will provide some great games as well. So in honor of what will be a fun next couple of months, here are my playoff predictions, round by round. For an empty NBA Playoffs bracket, click here.EASTERN CONFERENCEFirst Round: Eastern Conference(1) Boston defeats (8) Atlanta: 4-0Boston's defense suffocates the Hawks on offense.(5) Washington defeats (4) Cleveland: 4-3With an injured back, Lebron won't have enough in the tank. Should be the best series in the East.(3) Orlando defeats (6) Toronto: 4-2Bosh will have a spectacular series, but the Raptors will be just short.(2) Detroit defeats (7) Philadelphia: 4-1The Pistons will nonchalantly roll into the 2nd round with only one bump along the way

Quarter Finals: Eastern Conference(1) Boston defeats (4) Washington: 4-1The Wizards will put up a valiant effort, but they will be exhausted from a tough first round series. Defense again will win this series for the C's.(2) Detroit defeats (2) Orlando: 4-2I just can't see the Magic matching Detroit's experience in this series. Look for Chauncey to take over (20 and 10 a game).

Semifinals: Eastern Conference(1) Boston defeats (2) Detroit: 4-2I think both teams will surprise each other on the road, but in the end the Celtics will pull this one out. Both teams have strong benches, veteran leadership and lockdown defense, but I give the edge to KG and company for being more rested in the first two rounds.WESTERN CONFERENCEFirst Round: Western Conference(1) Los Angeles defeats (8) Denver: 4-2I actually A.I. and Melo' will single handily win a couple games for the Nuggets at home, but win it's all said and done, Kobe and Pau will take care of business at home.(4) Utah defeats (5) Houston: 4-2Should be a low scoring series. I don't think McGrady alone can will the Rockets to a victory. Expect the tandem of Williams and Boozer to once again emerge as superstars in the playoffs.(6) Phoenix defeats (3) San Antonio: 4-3This will be the best series of the first round. Defending champs against Shaq, Amare and Nash. What more could you ask for? (Yeah I guess I want Robert Horry to be healthy enough to play in this series, too) I give the edge to the Suns because the Spurs have been banged up all year and Amare and Shaq look hungrier than ever.(2) New Orleans defeats (7) Dallas: 4-3Dallas has shown they can beat New Orleans, so I think this series will be a lot closer than most think. I give it to CP3 though, with homecourt and 'something to prove'. Expect JKidd to play strongly in this series, and for Mark Cuban to threaten Avery Johnson with his job if he doesn't make it out of the first round.

Quarter Finals: Western Conference(1) Los Angeles defeats (4) Utah: 4-2Remember when Kobe went absolutely off on the Jazz after the Utah fans booed Derek Fisher for no apparent reason? Well I think the anger in Kobe and his teammates will carry on to this series as the Lakers narrowly defeat the Jazz.(6) Phoenix defeats (2) New Orleans: 4-2This will be a phenomenal series. Expect New Orleans to come out strong out of the gate, but for the veteran Suns to take care of business by the end. Shaq will play a huge role in this series.

Semifinals: Western Conference(1) Los Angeles defeats (6) Phoenix: 4-3Where amazing happens. The NBA will be thoroughly excited if this matchup occurs, as it would pit the four-time champion Shaquille O'Neal against his soon-to-be-named-MVP ex-teammate Kobe Bryant. I have no doubt in my mind that a series like this should go seven games and I only give the Lakers the margin because of their stronger team defense and bench. Lakers won't be able to contain Amare, but nor will the Suns Kobe.NBA FINALS(1) Los Angeles defeats (1) Boston: 4-3Game 1 (in Boston): Lakers win 88-81Game 2 (in Boston): Celtics win 95-74Game 3 (in LA): Lakers win 96-94Game 4 (in LA): Lakers win 94-87Game 5 (in LA): Celtics win 91-77Game 6 (in Boston): Celtics win 103-94Game 7 (in Boston): Lakers win 94-93Kobe Bryant drills a dead on three with 2 seconds remaining to give the Lakers the lead. KG takes a turn around 18 footer at the buzzer that just rims out. Lakers are the 2007-2008 NBA Champs.

So there you have it, I have the Lakers over the Celtics in a return to one of the most storied rivalries in all of sports. I give a push to the matchup between Kobe/Pau/Odom vs. KG/Pierce/Allen and predict that it will be the lesser known players that will determine this series. I think both teams have excellent second units, but that the Lakers will be able to put it together a little bit more. Expect Farmar, Sasha and Radmanovic to have a strong series. Powe, Allen and House will struggle.

Keep in touch with FBP during the offseason as we begin our preparation for the 2008-2009 fantasy basketball season by signing up for our free RSS feed.