“Fog of war” typically describes the unpredictable and confusing nature of armed conflict. But it just as easily could be applied to the mystery surrounding the shooting deaths of Kaufman County District Attorney Mike McLelland and his wife.

Investigators are trying to track down the killers. Speculation is rampant. Kaufman County residents are in shock. And they want answers.

Several theories have emerged. Each has strengths and weaknesses. And if history is any guide, there’s always room for surprises. But here are some of the more likely culprits:

Aryan Brotherhood of Texas

Investigators are trying to find out if this prison-based white supremacist gang is responsible for the fatal shootings of McLelland and his wife, Cynthia, over the weekend. They’ve also speculated that the same group may be responsible for gunning down Mark Hasse, an assistant district attorney who worked for McLelland, near the Kaufman County Courthouse on Jan. 31.

The arguments for:

The gang has been involved in methamphetamine dealing in Kaufman County. That prompted an aggressive response by law enforcement authorities there.

Kaufman County prosecutors persuaded a jury to send a 36-year-old Aryan Brotherhood of Texas gang member to prison for life last summer. James Patrick Crawford was convicted of several offenses, including aggravated kidnapping, aggravated assault, a drug charge and “directing gang activities.”

The Kaufman County district attorney’s office was part of a multi-agency task force that targeted the Aryan Brotherhood’s operations in Texas. That operation led to federal racketeering indictments in Houston naming more than 30 alleged gang members, including four of its top leaders.

The Texas Department of Public safety issued a warning in December that the Aryan Brotherhood could be “planning retaliation against law enforcement officials” involved in the investigation that led to the Houston indictment.

A U.S. Marshals Service email stated that the Aryan Brotherhood was the focus of its investigation into Hasse’s death.

In 2005, federal officials issued an anti-terrorism bulletin cautioning that the Aryan Brotherhood may be planning to injure or kill law officers. In 2007, the FBI issued a warning for Dallas-area officers, saying that the gang was trying to collect the names of federal agents, state troopers and police officers.

Few clues were left behind after Hasse was slain. Some law enforcement officials have privately said that the gang would have the resources to execute Hasse and McLelland, and avoid detection.

A Colorado white supremacist prison gang member recently gunned down the state’s top prison official at his home. No direct link has been made between that case and the Kaufman County killings, but it could indicate that white supremacist gangs are employing a new and deadly strategy that targets law enforcement officials.

The arguments against:

Law enforcement officials have not publicly reported any direct evidence linking the Kaufman County shootings to the Aryan Brotherhood.

The Aryan Brotherhood reportedly is involved in lucrative drug operations and other criminal activity and might be reluctant to risk the blowback from such blatant attacks on top law enforcement officials.

The Kaufman County DA’s office was just one of many law enforcement agencies in the task force that helped get the racketeering indictments, and it is unclear why they might be singled out.

Mexican drug cartels

Drug cartels are known for their violence. Law enforcement officials have said little publicly about the possibility that a drug cartel is responsible for the Kaufman County shootings, but it’s likely that theory — among many — is being explored.

The arguments for:

North Texas is a popular drug-smuggling hub used by Mexican cartels.

The Aryan Brotherhood, despite its racist history, has been known to do business with the cartels.

The anti-drug efforts by the Kaufman County district attorney’s office may have affected cartel drug operations.

An attorney for one of the Aryan Brotherhood defendants indicted in Houston said the McLellands’ deaths were more typical of a cartel hit. Houston defense attorney Richard O. Ely II said the white supremacist gang usually doesn’t target family members, while attacks by cartels are often more indiscriminate.

The arguments against:

While drug cartels have a long history of targeting law enforcement officials, that’s typically happened in Mexico.

Law enforcement officials have not publicly reported evidence directly linking the Kaufman County shootings to a drug cartel.

Like the Aryan Brotherhood, a drug cartel would know that attacks on U.S. law enforcement officials would trigger a reaction that could disrupt their drug operations and their cash flow.

Wild cards

Sometimes, the most likely suspects don’t make the final cut. Prosecutors inevitably make enemies. A mentally ill defendant convicted in a relatively low-profile case may plot harm, or actually lash out. It may be a defendant in a domestic violence case — or almost any other crime, especially if the defendants single out the prosecutor as the primary source of their woes. It’s not impossible that the two shootings are unrelated — or the work of a copycat killer.

The arguments for:

Whoever killed Hasse and the McLellands was able to escape unhindered. That may suggest that they had a familiarity with Kaufman County.

Someone with roots in the community may be less likely to stand out than white supremacist gang members or cartel members.

Someone who harbors a grudge because he or she was convicted on a low-profile charge is less likely to attract the attention of investigators trying to solve the killings.

Hasse was killed with a revolver, in daylight, near the courthouse. The McLellands were killed by bullets fired from an assault rifle at their home. That may suggest that the killings were carried out by different assailants.

Whoever killed Hasse and the McLellands apparently was able to get close before they started shooting. That may suggest that the victims knew their assailants.

Several of the U.S. prosecutors who’ve been gunned down over the years were killed by individuals with grudges.

The arguments against:

A local resident with a known history of violence or weapons training would be likely to immediately attract the attention of law enforcement in Kaufman County.

Someone without such a history or training might be unlikely to carry out two successful assassinations, especially against two veteran prosecutors who routinely were armed.

The successful escape by the gunmen who shot Hasse and the McLellands also could have been the result of careful planning by experienced killers affiliated with a gang or a cartel.

Someone local might have been more likely to complain about McLelland or Hasse to friends or family in advance, or after the shootings. And friends and family members often are the source of tips about criminal wrongdoing.

Jumping to conclusions

Early speculation and false accusations have led investigators and the media down many false trails over the years in high-profile cases. Here are a few examples:

Richard Jewell was working as a security guard at the Atlanta Summer Olympics in 1996. He spotted the backpack containing a pipe bomb and helped evacuate people from the area. At first he was seen as a hero but very quickly became a suspect. Jewell ultimately was exonerated. White supremacist Eric Robert Rudolph later was identified as the bomber.

Many media organizations initially speculated that Islamic terrorists were responsible for the 1995 bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma. It later turned out that Timothy McVeigh, a white supremacist, was responsible.

After Trans World Airlines Flight 800 exploded in 1996, killing 230 people, there was widespread speculation that a terrorist bomb or even a missile was responsible. Federal officials later concluded that there was no evidence of a criminal act and that the probable cause was a short circuit that caused a fuel tank to explode.

To post a comment, log into your chosen social network and then add your comment below. Your comments are subject to our Terms of Service and the privacy policy and terms of service of your social network. If you do not want to comment with a social network, please consider writing a letter to the editor.