Policy Simulation of Dynamic Fiscal Model in China based on Fiscal Going Out Strategy and Fiscal TBT

Keywords

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is policy simulation to China by
dynamic fiscal model. The paper analyzes the influence
on fiscal stability about interest rate. The paper draws the
following conclusions:(1) The rate of national debt
balance to GDP will be less than 60% if economic growth
rate more than 7% when the rate of national debt balance
to GDP is about 12% and fiscal deficit rate is less than 4%
at 2000;(2) Currency deflation will increase the rate of
national debt balance to GDP.(3)High interest rate will
result in fiscal crises.