Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The second in what looks like it might be a regular monthly series of Galaxy polls finds Labor opening a lead after a dead heat in last month’s poll.

The Sunday News Limited tabloids have a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1391 – quite a bit bigger than Galaxy polls have traditionally been in the past – which shows Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 at the last such poll a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and Palmer United is up two to 6%. The poll also finds 65% opposed to the paid parental leave scheme proceeding “in the current budgetary environment”, compared with 23% in support. Seventy-two per cent say they would rate the proposed deficit levy a broken promise, after being prompted that “Tony Abbott announced before the election that there would be no new taxes”, compared with 21% who thought otherwise.

UPDATE: Possum, who reads more carefully than some of us, observes that the higher sample size is due to a change in methodology, with the live interviewing (which I believe in Galaxy’s case includes a subset of mobile phone polling) supplemented by an online panel.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has Labor’s lead up from 52-48 to 54-46, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 39% for the Coalition. More to follow.

UPDATE 3: Full ReachTEL results here, showing primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition (down 1.1% on a poll conducted in fortnight ago), 39.6% for Labor (up 2.2%), 11.2% for the Greens (down 0.3%) and 6.0% for Palmer United (up 0.4%). Also featured are leadership ratings on a five-point scale, in which Tony Abbott has a very good or good rating from 26.5% (down 4.3%) and poor or very poor from 56.8% (up 5.0%), while Bill Shorten’s respective numbers are 20.8% (up 1.8%) and 42.2% (down 0.4%). A 1% deficit levy has a net unfavourable if applied at $80,000 per annum (34.2% to 40.7%), becoming strongly favourable at $180,000 (59.3% to 23.4%), but 60.2% believe such a levy would break an election promise against 23.5% who think otherwise. Co-payments for doctor visits have 33.5% support and 56.5% opposition, with 59.0% thinking it a broken promise against 28.4% not; and 47.2% would support reducing the size of the public service to bring the budget to surplus versus 34.3% opposed.

UPDATE 4 (Morgan): Morgan now offers its fortnightly result as well, part of a glut of polling as everyone returns to the party following consecutive long weekends (Newspoll to follow this evening). It adds to the general picture of a blowout in having Labor’s lead at 55-45 (up from 52-48) on respondent-allocated preferences and 53.5-46.5 (up from 52-48) on previous election preferences, the primary votes being 37% for Labor (up three), 37.5% for the Coalition (down one), 12% for the Greens (down one) and 5.5% for Palmer United (up half).

I hope Abbott is replaced as PM sooner rather than later. He is a national embarrassment. Hockey would be the most likely replacement. Turnbull would never be accepted by the LNP again. Morrison and Bishop the younger are lightweights and anyway is Morrison the face we want to present to ourselves let alone the wider world?

So Hockey is a Thatcherite ideologue, a bloviating windbag and while a physical heavyweight is hardly an intellectual one. But he’s a republican, a social moderate and believes there’s a problem with the climate. Hopefully the Senate can curb his excesses until we can boot the whole lot out in 2016.

My aggregate has gone from 51.3 for Labor last week to 51.9 thus far this week although there are several polls to come this week. Anyway its highest reading at the end of a week was 51.4 so it will be interesting to see where it ends up this week.

A friend asked me a few years ago what to do about ‘being older’ and what that may imply.

My answer was if you are earning money enough, keep hold of whatever you can and spend it on what you need to do to alleviate the difficulties that present themselves, as you become less able. Age alone.

If they dump him based on polls then they get hit with the knifing of a 1st term PM stuff which they will want to avoid.

Abbott’s replacement will be boosted and protected by the mainstream media, especially the Murdochracy, which would probably have started it’s boosting before the leadership change should it decide Abbott is a dud. The ‘knifing a first term leader’ angle will be downplayed.

Bishop would attract the smart money if the top criterion was not-from-Sydney. Though I’d be surprised if that were the main concern. The favourites would have to be Hockey and Turnbull; ie, let’s all take a trip down memory lane to 2009. And for those saying ‘let them keep Tony, he’s the best chance Labor has – you were probably saying that in 2009, too.

Early days to be talking about this, though ‘twelve month Tony’ has a certain resonance to it…

My general point is that our political system works best when both major parties are run by moderates. The ideal is two moderate major parties and a hung Senate. This leads to consensus building (the moderate majors can find common ground to avoid being captive to special interests driving micro-parties) and minimises the potential benefit of taking up a populist agenda in opposition. Labor has kept its side of the equation, let’s just hope Abbott self-destructs sooner rather than later so we an actually achieve some ong-term reform in the national interest (the decarbonisation of the economy being the most pressing one).

Just watched some tv and there was a banner at the bottom saying something like Troy Buswell and his chief of staff were living the good life on a government funded credit card while the state lost it’s AAA credit rating.

And according to the Sun Herald there is a scandal being exposed in Senator Nigel Scullion’s Ministry of Indigenous Affairs where a ministerial adviser has been found to have a major involvement in an Indigenous Lobbying company having dealings with the Ministry.

What if Abbott gets wind that he is to be dumped and then goes to the GG for a DD (just to keep himself in office for a few more weeks)?

I actually reckon that if Abbott gets a tap on the shoulder he will go quietly.

The real fun starts in the maneuverings to replace him. there were obvious divisions between the Liberals and the Loony Denialist Right in the Libs when Abbott got the job. Are the numbers still balanced between the sides??

Still, bets of all worlds at the moment is for the press pack to stoke up the Lib Leadersh$t boiler to a good head of steam.

Abbott and Co are pretty much committing the same error as many first-term governments… completely misinterpreting what their election actually meant. The punters wanted to see the back of Labor, they knew there would be cuts and changes, but now their blinkers are off and they not interested in the ‘Budget emergency’ or the remedies.

They don’t have the political capital to spend… they’re behind in the polls, Abbott is the weakest first-term Prime Minister (both in terms of approvals and preferred PM)… and there’s clearly internal ructions. And they’re insisting to go ahead on this ideological wet dream of a Budget…

The punters wanted to see the back of Labor, they knew there would be cuts and changes, but now their blinkers are off and they not interested in the ‘Budget emergency’ or the remedies.

That’s what the next election will be about. Can the Coalition convince punters that we have a budget emergency and the Coalition has started fixing it, or can Labor convince punters that the changes the Coalition has come up with aren’t actually needed or are the wrong choices.

It’s far to early to speculate about the LNP dumping Abbott. The polls would need to crash out first and then fail to rebuild, and there would need to be an obvious replacement that would be acceptable to the dominant right wing. There’s no such alternative available.

Hockey lacks the fibre and in any case is already tainted by the Budget and CoA shambles, both of which fall within his domain. There’s no-one else on hand…consider the current cabinet. Turnbull is reviled by his colleagues. Pyne is a whinging prat. Morrison is possible, but is basically still unproven. Bishop is utterly flimsy. Andrews is a cadaverous creep. There are several others, but they are either invisible, in the Senate or the wrong party. Abbott had the chance to promote new blood, but has chosen a team that could never pose a challenge to him. I think the Libs and the country are stuck with him for a long time yet.

There’s always Dutton, who must hold the record for the fewest words ever uttered by a Minister, and Greg Hunt, who is a notorious sell-out, fraud and poser. Then there’s Robb, who has all the appeal of stale socks. Nup, Abbott it is and Abbott it will be.

The punters wanted to see the back of Labor, they knew there would be cuts and changes, but now their blinkers are off and they not interested in the ‘Budget emergency’ or the remedies.

That’s what the next election will be about. Can the Coalition convince punters that we have a budget emergency and the Coalition has started fixing it, or can Labor convince punters that the changes the Coalition has come up with aren’t actually needed or are the wrong choices.

The LNP policies, if implemented with a balanced budget, require them to drag an extra 3% of GDP out of the household sector, either by cutting social incomes or raising taxes. They have to do this while demographic factors are pushing up outlays and the external accounts are dragging down revenues.

If they do what they say they want to do, they will tend to drive down private savings. But this cannot run far. If households feel their security is threatened, they will respond by cutting consumption instead of savings, which will hit demand, profits, investment and jobs.

The LNP’s policies are basically contractionary though they mistakenly don’t see it that way. They think that to cut is also to expand. This is economics by and for simpletons. If they’re not careful – and if the Senate lets them – they will crash the economy.

So the over the top response, re:poll is all about the possibility of a hit to those who are relatively well off.
Obviously trying to scare Rabbott into withdrawing from any measures that hit those who can afford it.

What would be the headline if the idea of a deceit tax was absent?

What about the slug to the minimum wage?

That seems to be acceptable but lordy, lordy, try and hit those at the top at your peril.

Nearly three-quarters of voters — 72 per cent — believe Mr Abbott’s debt tax is a “broken promise”, and it’s a fear shared by deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop and senior ministers, who are understood to have raised concerns at last Monday’s cabinet meeting. During the meeting, Ms Bishop, who was on a phone hook- up, warned “our people won’t like it”.

About this blog

William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.