​Weapons Availability and Civil War Onset​A Natural Experiment in Peru (with Michael Joseph): This research endeavors to contribute to the literature on weapons availability and armed conflict. To date, scholars have been unable to overcome endogeneity problems to conclusively show if armed conflict breaks out where weapons are easily available or if weapons flow to areas that are on the verge of conflict onset. Be employing a natural experiment that 'as if' randomly assigns weapons availability at a sub-national level, we hope to gain leverage on this question.

​Selected Completed Research Projects:

Development Assistance and the Diffusion of Insurgent Violence​Development assistance has become a cornerstone of ​counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy. The United States, but also numerous other ​countries around the world, have begun using aid in an attempt to win over civilian populations. Despite extensive reliance on this ​approach to COIN, a fundamental question remains unanswered: is development assistance an effective COIN tool? Existing scholarship has arrived at very different and conflicting conclusions. This is partly the result of the fact that much of the existing research utilized

traditional statistical techniques, which only accounted for the effect of developmental interventions in the immediate areas receiving assistance. By ignoring how these endeavors either spread insurgent violence or diffuse peace, previous research is affected by spatial autocorrelation (SAC) that systematically biases the results.

On the other hand, this dissertation advanced and tested a theory explaining the effects of assistance efforts on violence both where they are implemented and in geographically proximate areas. Specifically, it posited that the effect of aid on insurgent support and thus attacks is a product of two factors: whether or not development interventions are corrupted and if they are being ​undertaken by a belligerent or a neutral party. In doing so, this investigation combined the literatures on conflict diffusion and development assistance in COIN. It leveraged extensive archival- and interview-based evidence as well as original datasets and quantitative methods that are robust to SAC. This dissertation covered three distinct cases: Iraq, Peru and Colombia. It was a product of more than a year of overseas field research.​Shadows of Violence: Empirical Assessments of Threats, Coercion and Gray ZonesThis investigation aimed to increase understanding of Gray Zone conflicts. In particular, it explored the role of violent non-state actors within these dynamics. In doing so, this project combined detailed qualitative research with large-n quantitative testing across a diverse set of cases: Colombia, Libya and Ukraine. This research was conducted at START as a Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment Initiative.

Violent Non-state Actors and Contested Space Operations​​This project seeks to assess the risks posed by violent non-state actors to space-based systems. Moreover, it endeavors to also develop potential responses aimed at building resilience and countering threats.