Impacts in Scotland

The experience of recent years has shown us that climate change and extreme weather events have already impacted many aspects of our natural environment and our society, including buildings and property, health, agriculture, forestry, transport, water resources and energy demand.

The Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme identifies some of the key consequences for Scotland that may occur from the impacts of climate change.

The productivity of our agriculture and forests

A warming climate has the potential to improve growing
conditions in Scotland and increase the productivity of our agriculture and
forestry. However, climate change will also pose a number of threats, from more
variable and extreme weather to the spread of pests and diseases, which may
limit this potential.

The occurrence of pests and disease

As our climate changes, it will create new conditions that
may allow existing pests and disease to spread and new threats to become
established in Scotland. This may impact on the health of our people, animals,
plants and ecosystems if risks are not properly managed.

The quality of our soils

We rely on soils to sustain biodiversity, support
agriculture and forestry, regulate the water cycle and store carbon. Soils also
have an historic environment value, as a proxy record of environmental change
and for the preservation of archaeological deposits and artefacts. Soils and
vegetation may be altered by changes to rainfall patterns and increased
temperatures - as well as the way we use the land.

The health of our natural environment

Climate change may affect the delicate balance of Scotland’s
ecosystems and transform Scotland’s habitats and biodiversity, adding to
existing pressures. Some distinctive Scottish species may struggle and could be
lost, invasive non-native species may thrive, while a degraded environment may
not be able to sustain productive land or water supply.

The security of our food supply

Climate change may have an impact on global food production.
Although Scotland may be able to grow more food, this will not offset the
impact global disruption has on us. The effects of increased volatility in the
global commodity market due to exposure to extreme climatic events has an
impact on supply and cost of food.

The availability and quality of water

As our climate warms and rainfall patterns change, there may
be increased competition for water between households, agriculture, industry
and the needs of the natural environment. Summer droughts may become more
frequent and more severe causing problems for water quality and supply.

The increased risk of flooding

Flooding can already have a devastating effect on those
affected. With climate change likely to alter rainfall patterns and bring more
heavy downpours, we expect flood risk to increase in the future. This could
impact on properties and infrastructure – with serious consequences for our
people, heritage, businesses and communities.

The change in our coast

Sea level rise is already having a widespread impact on
parts of Scotland’s coast. With this set to accelerate over the coming decades,
we can expect to see more coastal flooding, erosion and coastline retreat –
with consequences for our coastal communities and supporting infrastructure.

The health of our marine environment

Our marine ecosystems – from plankton through to fish,
mammals and seabirds – are already being affected by climate change alongside
other pressures, particularly fishing. Changes will continue, with rising
temperatures likely to change species and their distributions. The changes will
present both threats and opportunities to our commercial fisheries and
aquaculture.

The resilience of our businesses

Climate change and associated extreme weather may disrupt
transport, energy and communication networks in Scotland and around the world.
This could impact on markets, affect supply chains and raise insurance costs.

The health and well-being of people

A warming climate may provide more opportunity to be
outdoors and enjoy a healthy and active lifestyle, while reducing mortality in
winter. However, it could affect patterns of disease and other health issues.
Climate change and associated extreme weather may disrupt the lives of
individuals and communities, limiting access to vital services and impacting on
people’s physical and mental health.

Our cultural heritage and identity

The changing climate is already altering our unique Scottish
landscape and threatening our historic environment through coastal erosion,
flooding and wetter, warmer conditions. The increased pace of climate change
presents challenges to all those involved in the care, protection and promotion
of the historic environment.

The security and efficiency of our energy supply

Climate change may influence Scotland’s capacity to generate
weather-dependent renewable energy. For example, varying water availability
will affect hydro generation schemes. Climate change can also impact power
distribution, with impacts ranging from damage caused by extreme weather
events, to reduced transmission efficiency occurring as a result of temperature
fluctuations. Impacts on global energy markets may also affect energy supplies
in Scotland and consequently our overall energy security.

The performance of our business

Climate change will have an impact on the design,
construction, management and use of our buildings and surroundings. Whether
retrofitting existing or building new, it is likely that there will be issues
with water management (in flood and drought), weather resistance and
overheating.

Infrastructure network connectivity and interdependencies

Our energy, transport, water, and ICT networks support
services are vital to our health and well-being and economic prosperity. The
effect of climate change on these infrastructure systems will be varied. They
are likely to be impacted by an increase in disruptive events such as flooding,
landslides, drought, and heatwaves. Our infrastructure is closely inter-linked
and failure in any area can lead to wider disruption across these networks.