Can the Edmonton Oilers really expect bounce back years from Ryan Jones and Ryan Smyth?

Worries on the wing for the Edmonton Oilers

It’s feast or famine again for the Edmonton Oilers when it comes to their wing positions. This reality of the 2013-14 pre-season hits home hard when you look at every available statistical metric, traditional or advanced, about the Oilers wingers, from Taylor Hall at the top to Mike Brown at the bottom.

Most pressing are glaring holes on the third and fourth lines. These were addressed somewhat this summer with the acquisition of David Perron, Jesse Joensuu and Ryan Hamilton, but the Oilers are still counting on two wingers, Ryan Jones and Ryan Smyth, who performed at mediocre-to-failing levels in 2013.

Smyth is an Oilers hero and a player renowned for his work ethic and grit. But his career is winding down. If he had not been signed to a two year deal in the summer of 2012, it’s unlikely he would have been invited back, based on his 2013 play.

Jones has some size, skating ability and he also hits a bit. But his game crashed in 2013, mainly due to an eye injury. He had played decent hockey as a role player on the team in 2011-12, but if he can’t get back to that passable level, and do so pronto, he can’t help the Oilers.

It would be no surprise at all to see either Smyth or Jones quickly relegated at some point to the press box, as new coach Dallas Eakins gives a shot to winger Ryan Hamilton, a career AHLer, but one who might be ready to help a bottom unit of an NHL team.

Feasting on the attack

In Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall, the Oilers have two wingers who play two-way hockey almost as well as any wingers in the league.

In Ales Hemsky, David Perron and Nail Yakupov, the Oilers have three wingers capable of playing strong attacking hockey.

The scoring chance numbers for the Oilers top wingers is certainly encouraging.

Hall chipped in on 4.9 scoring chances per 15 minutes of even strength play, Eberle, 4.8 per 15. Those are excellent totals.

Hemsky was at a respectable 3.3 per 15, down somewhat from recent seasons, but still good. Yakupov was 2.8 per 15, and the traded Magnus Paajarvi, 2.7 per 15. Perron should be able to chip in on more than three scoring chances per game at even strength, and Yakupov can be expected to crank it up as well, maybe to as much as four scoring chances per game at even strength. Such performances would give the Oilers plenty of bite on the wings, at least on the top lines.

On the bottom lines, the wingers were weak on the attack in 2013, and there’s no reason to expect improvement in 2013-13, save for from Jones, who was injured. Jones contributed to 2.2 chances per 15, Smyth 2.1 per 15, Petrell 1.9 per 15, Brown 1.0 per 15. If Jones, Jesse Joensuu or Smyth spend a lot of time on the third line and they’re not chipping in on 2.5-plus chances per game, that will be one sign the Oilers have made little progress on their bottom lines.

Questions on defence

As strong as the top unit attacking is, there are questions on defence, at least when it comes to Hemsky and Yakupov. Yakupov struggled defensively as a rookie, making mistakes on 1.3 scoring against for every 15 even strength minutes he played.

The most mistake free Oilers winger on defence was Eberle and careful Mike Brown, both with 0.8 mistakes on scoring chances against per 15. Next best were defensive rock Lennart Petrell and Jones, both 1.0 mistakes per 15; Magnus Paajarvi, 1.1 per 15; Taylor Hall and Ryan Smyth, 1.2 per 15; then Yakupov (as mentioned), 1.3 per 15; and Hemsky 1.8 per 15.

On the face of it, Brown, Petrell, Jones and Smyth didn’t appear to make many mistakes on chances against, but it’s crucial to note they all played mediocre-to-weak competition, so were far less tested by the Jamies Benns, the Henrik Sedins and Anze Kopitars of the NHL than were Eberle and Hall.

Hemsky high number of mistakes is troubling; if he continues to leak chances against, the Oilers chances of becoming a wining team with him in the line-up are limited. But if he can find a way to chip in on about 3.5 chances per game, while making mistakes on 1.0 to 1.2 against, that kind of two-way play would be huge, especially as Hemsky will be in a second or third line role. He could be a difference maker on the squad.

Famine on bottom lines

The numbers that really give me pause in regards to the Oilers wingers were collected by The Cult’s Jonathan Willis and Bruce McCurdy this past year on how well the Oilers players advanced the puck out of the Oilers zone (zone exits) and into the opposition end (zone entries).

The scary thing is how tightly these zone entry and exit numbers match up with the scoring chance data, indicating the Oilers are set to feast on the top lines, but are in real danger of again experiencing famine on the bottom lines. This is certainly true of the two key wingers in question, Jones and Smyth, who are evidently being counted on to succeed in smaller but still crucial roles on the team.

Onthe zone exits front, the key stat is how often a winger got the puck out of the Oilers end under control. Hall led the way with 4.6 controlled exits of the puck per 15 minutes of even strength play. Next best was Hemsky, 4.3 per 15, then Eberle, 3.6 per 15, Paajarvi, 3.3 per 15, Yakupov and Smyth, 3.2 per 15, Petrell, 2.7 per 15, Brown 2.5 per 15 and Jones, 2.1 per 15.

The number here for Hemsky indicates that just as he can still attack and create chances in the offensive end, he can also move that puck up ice a bit. In fact, he’s better at advancing it than chipping in on chances, possibly because he holds the puck a bit too long in the offensive zone, allowing the defence to target him.

The zone exist numbers for Jones and Brown, especially, are not at all encouraging.

For zone entries, Hall was again top dog, helping the Oilers gain the offensive blueline with the puck under control 5.5 times for every 15 minutes of even strength play. Note: Hall has led the Oilers wingers on every key stat here, save for making mistakes on defence, where he can still bear down a bit more.

After Hall, the next best was the puck-carrying maestro Hemsky, with 5.4 controlled entries per 15, Eberle, 4.5 per 15, Yakupov, 3.3 per 15, Paajarvi, 2.9 per 15, then a huge drop off to Smyth at 1.9 per 15, Petrell, 1.7 per 15, Brown, 1.4 per 15, and Jones 1.2 per 15.

Another scary number for Jones.

He should enter the season playing like his career is on the line with every shift. But if he can get back to his former level of play, there’s a role for him in Edmonton, ahd he’s not a terrible bet, given his 2011-12 play.

As for Smyth, if he’s used sparingly as a bottom-line plugger, he can contribute as well, but he should not be counted on in a third-line role, not on a team hoping to move up in the standings.

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