And those who had been downplaying it – from the Bank of England to yours truly – have had an uncomfortable time. Shouldn't the second group just admit they were wrong and shut up?

The Bank must speak for itself, but as for me, I'm happy to admit I was wrong and to suffer the brickbats. Mea culpa. But as for shutting up, you must be joking.

I still think that the forces making for low inflation will prevail in the end. Forecasts are always liable to be wrong. When thinking about forecasting again, you must begin by asking why the previous forecasts went awry.

The key is to think global. With regard to inflation, the world divides into three groups – emerging markets, developed economies and the UK.

In the first group, inflation has been high – it is now over 5pc in China and 7.5pc in India. High inflation in these countries has reflected two factors.

First, economic growth has been particularly strong – 10pc for China and 9pc for India. It is normal for rapidly developing countries to have high rates of inflation unless they allow their exchange rates to rise substantially, which emerging Asia has not been prepared to do.

The second factor has been surging commodity prices. In developing countries inflation is much more sensitive to changes in food prices than in developed economies, because spending on food accounts for a higher proportion of consumer spending – more than 30pc in China, compared to about 10pc in the UK.

In contrast, inflation in most developed economies has been at rock-bottom levels. Even after rises in food and energy costs, inflation in the US is still at 1.1pc, and excluding food and energy it is only 0.8pc. In the eurozone, CPI inflation held at 1.9pc in November.

In both these regions, CPI inflation was negative for most of 2009. Japan also belongs to this group. The latest inflation figure is 0.2pc. Measures of core inflation have remained negative.

Then there's the UK – a developed economy with relatively high inflation. Last week saw another rise in CPI inflation to 3.3pc. So why is the UK different?

There are three candidate explanations. The first is simply that this country is perennially given to high inflation. But this doesn't really stack up.

Only 14 months ago, CPI inflation was at 1.1pc. I see no reason why the UK should have resumed its earlier bad habits. Indeed, the extremely low rates of increase of average earnings suggest that it hasn't.

Others say the Bank of England's quantitative easing (QE) experiment and its policy of keeping official interest rates at 0.5pc is responsible.

As a result, those who argued last year that QE would stoke inflation now say they were right. In fact, things are rather less clear cut than they would like you to believe.

There is no evidence QE has had any direct monetary effect on inflation. Admittedly, the Bank's liabilities have shot up as a result of its asset purchases.

Consequently the M0 measure of the money supply has grown rapidly. But this is the small change of the monetary system. And the monetary links between QE and inflation supposedly run from broad money, not M0.

The broad measure of the money supply (which includes deposits with the commercial banks) has not picked up.

Moreover, it is not as though these policies are unique to the UK. The US and the eurozone have recently followed a similar path and Japan has been stuck with near-zero interest rates for ages. Yet their inflation rates have remained extremely low.

The sensible thing is to look for ways in which the UK is different from other developed countries. This provides the core of the third explanation, which is the one I favour. It is that UK inflation has been temporarily boosted by two factors – sterling's depreciation and the VAT increase.

The pound has fallen by more than 20pc, pushing up the sterling price of imports. On top of this, the restoration of VAT to 17.5pc in January will have boosted CPI inflation by about 1pc.

The further rise in VAT to 20pc next month will prevent inflation from falling. Note that CPIY – a measure of CPI inflation that strips out the effects of changes in indirect taxes – has hovered around 1.5pc over the past six months.

The idea that our high rates of inflation are part of a clever plan by policymakers to inflate their way out of debt is wide of the mark. Past form suggests that when things go wrong for them the reason is cock-up rather than conspiracy. Sadly, that is the explanation this time as well.

Don't get me wrong, I think inflation will rise in the coming months. My hopes for vindication are postponed until 2012. Up to then, at least, I will continue to suffer the brickbats – and to deserve them. But you know what they say about laughing last.