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Fears over a possible U.K. no-deal exit from the European Union have harmed the domestic car industry–car production plummeted 45% in April after factories had to be shut down to prepare for the country’s then-expected departure from the EU–but what commentators often fail to point out is that car sales have been in steep decline since 2017. Many analysts now consider that’s the year that the U.K. reached so-called “peak car.” This is not a phenomenon confined to the U.K. Many other countries have either already reached their own peak or will soon do so.

He told his clients that, year on year: “We now expect global auto demand to be down 3%.”

Other analysts have been even more pessimistic. “The industry is right now staring down the barrel of what we think is going to be a significant downturn,” Bank of America’s auto equity analyst John Murphy told a conference last week.

According to Bloomberg, global automakers cut 38,000 jobs in the past six months.

In the U.K., peak car has not been solely caused by Brexit but, should the country leave the EU without a deal, the existing woes will likely be much amplified.

However, not everybody is likely to be horrified by a massive downturn in U.K. car sales. Eco campaigners will likely welcome any reduction in the number of cars on the U.K.’s roads. And some keen Brexiters will not be surprised by the downturn. Brexit-supporting professor Patrick Minford has previously told parliament that U.K. car manufacturing would have to be eliminated if the U.K left the European Union. Minford is one of the analysts on the body Economists For Brexit.

Economists For Brexit

In 2012, Minford told a parliamentary committee that the U.K. leaving the European Union would result in the automotive sector suffering a “big transitional loss.” He claimed that there would be more “gainers than losers” because cheaper imported cars would flood into the U.K. He agreed this would all but destroy U.K. car manufacturing.

Minford is professor of economics at Cardiff Business School, a former advisor to Margaret Thatcher and supporter of the U.K. poll tax introduced in 1989 which led to riots in 1990. He heads the pro-Brexit campaign group Economists for Free Trade (EFT), formerly known as Economists for Brexit. This group denies climate change, preferring neoliberal-style environmental deregulation, and has been pushing for a “no deal” Brexit scenario.

Boris Johnson, former U.K. foreign secretary, attends the presentation of a report from Economists... [+] For Free Trade at Houses of Parliament in London, on Sept. 11, 2018. In the background is Jacob Rees-Mogg MP . Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

“It will be in your interests to do it, just as in the same way we ran down the coal and steel industries,” added Minford.

The great majority of economists disagree with Minford’s views. Analysis from the Bank of England to the OECD to academia all conclude that Brexit would make the U.K. economically worse off.

Many Brexiter politicians–including many of the Tory Party leadership candidates hoping to take over from Prime Minister Theresa May–still feel that the future for the U.K. leaving the E.U. is one of “sunny uplands.”

Car companies do not usually directly blame Brexit for sales downturns or factory closures. Honda recently announced it will close its plant in Swindon with the loss of 3,500 jobs, but official statements announcing the closure fell short of attributing causality to Brexit alone.

According to industry group the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), commercial vehicle exports plunged 89% earlier this year. SMMT is opposed to a no-deal Brexit, as are the Trades Union Congress (TUC) and the Confederation of British Industry (CBI).

Proponents of peak car have previously claimed that the phenomenon started in 2008, but the theory is much disputed.

I was Press Gazette's Transport Journalist of the Year, 2018. I'm also an historian – my most recent books include "Roads Were Not Built for Cars" and "Bike Boom", both

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I was Press Gazette's Transport Journalist of the Year, 2018. I'm also an historian – my most recent books include "Roads Were Not Built for Cars" and "Bike Boom", both published by Island Press, Washington, D.C.