Two weeks to go: general election predictions

Attempting to predict the UK’s most unpredictable election in decades.

Right now the polls are remaining steady, with the Conservatives and Labour just one or two points apart. Unless something dramatic happens that looks unlikely to change in the coming weeks.

Two weeks ago I made some predictions about the election. I made seven points which I still think will happen, from there being a hung parliament, to Scotland being dominated by the SNP and to an increased vote share for UKIP but a failure to make a real breakthrough into parliament.

I also said that my gut says that the Conservatives will remain the largest party, however, with Ed Miliband doing better in approval ratings in recent weeks it would not be surprising if Labour emerged with the most seats and votes.

Take one of YouGov’s most recent polls for example. The entire sample was split in two. One half were asked which party will emerge victorious after the election. In February 42% said the Conservatives, whilst 30% said Labour. In April 37% said the Conservatives, whilst 36% said Labour, suggesting that people are starting to think that Labour being the largest party is most likely.

But more interestingly perhaps, the other half of the sample were asked who they think will emerge as Prime Minister after the election. In February 44% said Cameron, whilst 24% said Miliband. However, in April, 37% said Cameron and 34% said Miliband. This clearly suggests that people are starting to think the idea of Ed Miliband is more likely.

And importantly for him, people are starting to think that he could actually be Prime Minister.

Richard Wood

Richard Wood is a Masters student in Political Research at the University of Aberdeen and is Head of Media for campaign-group TalkPolitics. Other than politics, he is passionate about travel, running, and writing, as well as all things space-related.