National Weather Service Raw Text Product

300
FXUS64 KMAF 211121
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019
.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions remain across all TAF sites at 12Z issuance though
there may be enough moisture along the Pecos River for several
hours of MVFR CIGs to develop. VFR conditions will return by 21Z
lasting through the end of the TAF period.
Hennig
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019/
DISCUSSION...
After clearing yesterday afternoon, low clouds have returned to
much of the area as low level moisture is on the increase.
Temperatures have fallen mostly into the 40's this morning and
likely won't move much more before sunrise. Mid level flow will
back to the SW today as an upper trough that moved onto the West
Coast yesterday moves east. Moisture will back up against the
higher terrain where a few showers and storms are possible this
afternoon. Otherwise, the majority of the area will remain dry
with temperatures climbing back into the 60's.
The upper trough weakens and lifts north Friday, but not before
bringing a good chance for rain to parts of the area. A dryline will
develop over the higher terrain with relatively moist and cool
conditions east of the boundary. A narrow instability axis still
looks possible near and just east of the mountains Friday afternoon
and shear profiles look most favorable over SE NM. Though isolated,
this will be the best location for strong to maybe even severe
thunderstorms as areas further east look to remain too stable.
Models have trended down on QPF coverage as much of the upper level
energy stays to our north. Even so, we should see at least
scattered showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-10 Friday
evening.
Westerly flow will bring warmer and drier conditions for the weekend
with temperatures above normal for a change. A cold front is still
due to arrive Monday with temperatures falling slightly. Temperatures
then warm late next week with continued dry conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 69 51 68 53 / 0 0 50 50
Carlsbad 62 51 76 40 / 30 40 30 10
Dryden 70 55 74 55 / 10 10 40 40
Fort Stockton 67 53 75 49 / 10 20 50 30
Guadalupe Pass 55 47 68 43 / 30 50 20 10
Hobbs 64 49 67 43 / 10 30 60 40
Marfa 67 46 73 39 / 20 30 30 20
Midland Intl Airport 68 51 67 51 / 0 10 60 50
Odessa 67 52 68 50 / 0 10 60 40
Wink 68 53 69 46 / 10 30 50 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
99/99/10