No idea without knowing which events and locations you had already triggered.

By then, I had already completed the main storyline, pretty much all of the optional content (well, maybe not all of it, but still a lot), and Earth Rising part 1. I also had all of the story and location mods currently available in the Steam Workshop enabled. I was still able to complete Earth Rising part 2, but, like I said, there was a noticeable delay before I received my first message - enough for me to almost leave the system that I was in at the time.