The key to success in motorcycle racing is about controlling as many variables as you can. There are two variables which riders and teams cannot control, and which they fear for that very reason: the weather and crashes.

The weather spared both MotoGP and Moto2 at Brno on Saturday, but played havoc in Moto3. Crashes, too, made life difficult, both for MotoGP and in Moto3. It made for an intriguing day of practice.

The day started under leaden skies, with the threat of rain ever present throughout the morning. Dark clouds rolled in, then rolled right out again, chased deeper into Moravia and away from the track. They broke only briefly in the afternoon, the Moto3 qualifying session the main victim.

Standing at trackside, the rain came and went so quickly that by the time I posted an update on Twitter, the weather had changed, immediately contradicting me. In the end, a red flag saved my blushes, Phillip Oettl crashing and damaging the air fence, causing the session to be halted while the air fence was repaired.

The rain had disappeared by the time MotoGP qualifying rolled around, conditions good enough for Marc Marquez to get close to Cal Crutchlow’s pole record from 2013. That Marquez should take pole is hardly a surprise – that’s nine out of eleven this year – but the way he controlled not just pole position, but the whole front row of the grid.

Marquez jumped straight to pole on his first run out of the pits, but as he started his second run, he picked up a passenger. Andrea Iannone latched onto the tail of Marquez, and as Marquez flashed across the line to improve his time, Iannone used his tow to leapfrog ahead of Marquez, taking provisional pole from the Repsol Honda man.

His soft tire spent, Iannone couldn’t follow Marquez on his second run, the world champion going on to reclaim pole and demote Iannone to second. Further down the grid, Andrea Dovizioso followed Valentino Rossi around the circuit to improve his own time, moving up to second and demoting Iannone another spot.

The two front row slots for the Ducatis were a problem for Rossi, dropping the Movistar Yamaha rider down to seventh, and the start of the third row. Rossi joked darkly about Marquez’s strategy, claiming that he was giving the Ducatis a tow to put them in between him and his main rivals.

“For sure he is clever,” Rossi said. “He doesn’t pull Jorge, me or Dani, always a Ducati.” Marquez laughed at the suggestion, admitting only half of Rossi’s accusations. He certainly didn’t look for Ducatis to give a tow, but he would not give one to his rivals, he said.

“It’s your decision to close the gas,” Marquez told the press conference. “If it’s Dani, Jorge, or Valentino behind me, for sure I will close the gas, but if it is another rider, it doesn’t matter.” That is in itself an admission of just how little competition Marquez sees.

He is prepared to give anyone a tow, except for the other factory Honda and the two factory Yamahas. In effect, he is dismissing the threat from any other riders. Harsh, but fair.

Bradley Smith was annoyed to miss out on the front row, the Tech 3 Yamaha man having an exceptionally strong qualifying session. Afterward, he declared himself disappointed. “Coming into the last corner, I looked down at the time difference, and saw I was up three quarters of a second.”

It had caught him off guard, and maybe just distracted his attention for a fraction of a second. “There was four thousandths in that last chicane, I know it,” Smith said. But he was happy enough to be fourth, and fastest Yamaha, and to have a weekend where everything is just clicking into place. A just reward for his new contract with Tech 3.

Smith sits ahead of Jorge Lorenzo, the Movistar Yamaha rider having shown strong pace in free practice. Lorenzo had tried a set up change in both FP3 and during qualifying, which they thought would bring him an advantage.

It didn’t work out that way, Lorenzo losing time on his first run, and jumping on to his second bike with a tried and tested set up. A late charge saw the Movistar Yamaha rider move up the grid to sixth, just behind Dani Pedrosa.

So why did Rossi suggest that Marquez gave Ducatis a tow on purpose? The soft tire makes them fast enough to set a quick qualifying time, but they are still struggling with tire life during the race. With a fresh tire, the Ducatis can push hard and match the pace of the leaders, but after six to ten laps, the tire performance drops off and they start drifting back down the field.

If the Ducatis are between Marquez and his rivals, then they can hold them up long enough for Marquez to escape, without posing a serious challenge to the reigning champ. They can give Marquez enough time to build a lead large enough to manage to the end of the race.

It is probably not a conscious strategy, as Rossi alleges, but Marquez is probably perfectly happy to let qualifying play out that way. Marquez was perfectly clear who he thinks can beat him: Dani Pedrosa, Valentino Rossi, and maybe Jorge Lorenzo, though he noted that Lorenzo had not shown the consistency he expected and was perhaps trying something with setup.

Looking at the timesheets, Marquez’s only real threat comes from his teammate, however. Marquez and Pedrosa were lapping consistently in the low to mid 1’56s, where the rest were only occasionally dipping into the high 1’56s, and mostly running low 1’57s. The only exception in FP4 was Valentino Rossi, who was quickest in that session.

Just how hard he was having to push to go fastest quickly became apparent, however, Rossi crashing on his fifth flying lap.

Rossi walked away almost unscathed, the only injury an open wound on his little finger. It looked to have been worse, Rossi fearing that he had broken the finger, making his anger at himself for crashing apparent by beating on the ground with his fist.

Afterward, he explained his fear, telling reporters that he had tried to ride with a broken little finger before, but the pain when riding on a bumpy track – and Brno is a very bumpy track, especially this year at Turn 3, Turn 8, and Turn 14 – made it difficult to control the bike and be competitive. His chance of a good result was gone, he feared. To find nothing was broken was a relief.

Starting from pole, you have to suspect that Marquez will make it eleven wins in a row. Yet it is hard to escape the feeling that his first defeat of the season could be coming very soon. There is something about Dani Pedrosa here at Brno which makes you suspect this could be his weekend.

There is a whiff of danger about him, and for the first time since Barcelona, you sense Marquez’s streak could be about to end. Even if he survives here, we go next to Silverstone, a track which the Yamaha riders relish, and where Jorge Lorenzo will arrive bolstered by the feeling of a hard-fought and spectacular victory from last year. This should be an interesting couple of weeks.

In Moto2, Tito Rabat appears to have turned the tables on his Marc VDS teammate Mika Kallio. This time, it was Kallio’s turn to struggle, the Finn crashing towards the end of qualifying just as he was on a hot lap. Kallio will start from sixth, while Rabat is once again in the zone and will start from pole.

Tom Luthi and Sandro Cortese complete the first row, while Sam Lowes is in fourth. Back at a track he doesn’t have to learn, having raced here in World Supersport, Lowes is shining once again. A podium is a real possibility for the Englishman.

It was the Moto3 class that bore the brunt of the weather at Brno, qualifying disrupted first by rain, then by a broken air fence. Rain fell on and off, though the track never really became wet. It did disrupt attempts to post a quick lap, with rain flags constantly waving and people slowing down and speeding up all the time.

It added even more to the confusion of riders dawdling on the racing line looking for a tow, and led to an outburst of frustration by championship leader Jack Miller. The Australian could barely exit a single corner without finding someone waiting on the racing line, hoping to get in his slipstream, and when Pecco Bagnaia became the most egregious example of getting in his way, Miller lashed out in sheer frustration.

In other circumstances, such an outburst may have earned Miller a penalty point, but Bagnaia’s blatant, and blatantly dangerous dawdling bought Miller a reprieve. Both men received a severe tongue-lashing, and both came perilously close to receiving points.

Moto3 qualifying gave Race Direction a real headache, as waiting on the racing line is something they have been trying to crack down on. Several riders were hauled up in front of Race Direction at Brno, but all of them claimed (or feigned) innocence, with rain flags being shown often enough around the track that they could legitimately claim that they were concerned about the conditions.

Whether the riders really were slowing for rain or waiting for a tow is hard to prove either way. The Scottish legal system allows a court to issue a verdict of “Not proven”, which is a way for the courts to say they think the accused did it, but they can’t prove it beyond reasonable doubt. Race Direction longed to be able to issue not proven verdicts after Moto3 at Brno.

So why are these riders waiting for a tow? I asked Ambrogio’s Brad Binder about it, and he made it very clear. He and his crew had compared the data from separate laps at several racetracks, and a two was worth between 0.5 and 0.7 seconds. Same brake point, same lean angle, same throttle, same everything. The tow alone was giving the time.

“It’s like free time you don’t have to work for,” Binder said. The smart teams are working together, with Sky VR46 riders Romano Fenati and Pecco Bagnaia, Red Bull KTM’s Jack Miller and Karel Hanika, and Estrella Galicia Alexes Rins and Marquez taking it in turns to chase each other around.

Miller and Hanika had an even bigger advantage, with four Ajo riders – KTM’s Hanika and Miller, and Husqvarna’s Danny Kent and Niklas Ajo – all following each other around and improving their times. All that slipstreaming hasn’t helped Jack Miller much.

The Hondas have a clear advantage at Brno, Marquez, Rins, Masbou and Vazquez all being fast. Polesitter Alex Marquez explained that the layout of the circuit, with a lot of medium speed corners, mitigated the Honda’s weakest point, which is the chassis. What’s more, the KTMs seemed to be suffering worse with chatter, something the Hondas were dealing with better.

Despite their advantage in practice, the Hondas are unlikely to be able to make a break. A track like Brno is sure to see a large group form, with many riders swapping the lead at the front. For Marquez, the challenge is clear: to take whatever risks are necessary to take points away from Jack Miller and Efren Vazquez.

The Moto3 race is usually the most exciting of the weekend, and this one looks set to be another barnburner. The race will probably only be decided in the final corners of the very last lap, after that steep climb up the hill. With a left-right combination just before the finish line, the stage is set for drama.

Photo: HRC

This article was originally published on MotoMatters, and is republished here on Asphalt & Rubber with permission by the author.

“… probably not a conscious strategy…”? He essentially said he’d give anyone a tow except DP/JL/VR; pretty smart and quite conscious. The Tech 3’s won’t keep up and the Ducati’s tires go off; put any of them between the other three and he’s built another insurmountable lead by the time any of them pass up to 2nd place. Lorenzo kept pace to the end at Indy, just couldn’t make up the gap.

HateUK

Great effort by Crutchlow – only one second per lap off his teammate.

L2C

Watch both Marquez and Iannone prepare to exit pit lane for their second qualifying run. Iannone sits and waits on his Ducati waiting for Marquez to pass, even though he could have exited pit lane first. Iannone also gives several nods/shakes of his head to Marquez before Marquez passes. I saw it live and knew immediately what was likely to happen next. And it did happen.

I knew that Marquez would likely tow Iannone to pole and then attempt to secure it for himself on his second fast lap. That Marquez is both denying and admitting to using a towing strategy is disingenuous of him, because he has been using this strategy ever since he realized that the Ducatis were capable of keeping up with him on single fast laps. (Just last weekend at Indy, Dovi credited Marquez’s tow and “crazy lines” as helping him to secure 2nd place on the front row.) And Marquez doesn’t use this strategy only for qualifying sessions but also for free practice sessions, as well.

It’s remarkable to me that Rossi and the other top riders haven’t caught on to this until today. Maybe they have noticed and today’s result was blatant enough to point it out in a half-joking way. I think Pedrosa would definitely have been aware of it by now. Anyway, this afternoon Marquez and Iannone clearly seemed to have had a *nod nod, wink wink* moment before their second qualifying run.

I’m not saying that Marquez and the top Ducati/Pramac men are conspirators planning things out before qualifying and free practice sessions–no, not at all. What I am saying is that all parties concerned are on the lookout to create these towing situations that are favorable to each of them. Sometimes Marquez tows Dovizioso, other times it’s Iannone. This is something that has happened just about every race weekend this season, but hasn’t always been successful.

Is there a conspiracy between the three? Highly unlikely. But these three guys have definitely been playing together for mutual benefit out on the track. And it has been obvious for quite some time.

Kev71

Smart strategy by MM; perhaps DORNA should look to eliminate the whole “towing” issue by making riders do solo qualifying laps. Of course this will not happen because it will take the excitement out of qualifying (what little there is).

I see MM winning this one by a large margin if the order remains relatively the same going into the first turn. VR/JL/DP’s only hope is to beat the Ducati’s to the 1st turn.

Can’t wait for Moto3; they have been the best races by far over the last few years.

+1 @ HateUK.

pooch

Dear me… of course other riders have noticed it. it’s ridiculous to think that armchair/keyboard warriors know more about what goes on than the racers themselves, LOL ! They’re not just out there racing, but they study videos, times, and strategies of other riders ALL THE TIME. It is their career, and their passion, and if you think that any of them don’t notice the tactics being used by the top riders, then I think you need to take a view that encompasses more than your lounge room !

proudAmerican

If Rossi doesn’t like it, he should push harder during qualifying and secure pole.

Otherwise, he should stop whining about the new jewel of MotoGP and (quietly) accept that he can’t keep up with MM.

L2C

@ pooch

Leave it to ignorant so-called keyboard warriors such as yourself to NOT make the leap in logic that fans wouldn’t have also noticed the same thing. It’s f-cking ridiculous that you would even attempt to make a point that fans don’t watch tapes and pay attention to detail at least as much as the riders. Wait…no it isn’t. How absent-minded of me to forget that I was talking to a puppy.

And just what new information, sussed from your all-encompassing world view, have YOU enlightened us with in your noisy commentary, pooch? Nothing–just more meaningless yelps into the night from the confines of your owner’s backyard.

None of the riders have questioned whether Marquez tows Ducati riders as a strategy, until today. In the past, Crutchlow was the only one who came out and chastised Iannone and Dovi about catching tows, but Rossi is the first rider to state to the press that it is possible that Marquez uses those tows as a strategy. So raising the question of whether riders have been aware of the strategy is okay because at least one rider raised the question himself. But you wouldn’t know with your face buried in the awesomeness your doggie bowl, pooch.

keiths04

haters gonna hate

smilo998

Keith / there is always one making that innane comment

Thoughts on MotoGp currently. Well someone had to…..

I wish I could share your youthful enthusiasm. I might have some of this wrong and too much time on my hands however. Darth Carmelo Vader is satisfied the Dark Side of the force is strong this year. LiviDarth Suppoidus agress. 93 – Anakin, has by far the best seemless hyper drive and will disappear into hyperspace. 26 – Padme is in love with Anakin and just wants him to win all the time. She does not like the dark side but loves Anakin 4th. 46 Ben Kenobi is getting on but will use his superior force to rise to the podium once again 3rd. 99 Luke has found the force again, with Ben’s help and will be listening to Ben during the race – “u avvve too drivee on dee egdee de olle raceh, olle de timeh, usaa de forsaa). 04- Hansdrea Dovilo is wishing GiGi D2 had got Falcon sorted by now but it is very old, “stubbornly unrelibale but fast” Fortunately the rebels have Yoda, based in Ingolstadt to help out. 29 – A. Chewbaccone agrees and needs a shave. 6 – Bradobba Fedt knows his power is fading, after annoying LiviDarth Suppoidius by allowing the Falcon to get in front. 38 – Brad C3PO will fall in behind Ben and Luke. 19 Jar Jar Binkstista will be out causing chaos as usual. 35 – Cal Dooku, once a loyal Jedi has signed away his sole and gone to the dark side. Need a beer now………

irksome

Just because riders don’t state the obvious doesn’t mean they don’t know it, being that they’re the ones out on the track and all…

Today is Sunday; it turns out there’s a downside to towing the Ducs in a row, if you don’t get a good start!

L2C

Just because riders don’t state the obvious doesn’t mean they don’t know it, being that they’re the ones out on the track and all…

And if they do state the obvious as a question, it most likely means the obvious remains a question because regardless of what one believes, who can know for sure? Also it opens the conversation for one to follow up with questions of his/her own.

Manny Fresco

While MM may be letting Dovi and Ionnone tow as a purposeful strategy, he still has to put in a time to secure poll on his own. There is nothing preventing JL/VR from slip-streaming each other to secure spots ahead of the Ducatis. While there are no team orders in MotoGP, nothing says they can’t work together. DP could even tuck in behind one of the Yamahas and move up as well.