The blog of Nikolas Gvosdev--thoughts on U.S. foreign policy and world affairs--as observed from Newport, RI

Friday, June 15, 2007

Logan takes on McCain

I assume Justin Logan wouldn't be looking for a job in a future John McCain administration. So that sense of liberation allowed him to make a point we continually stress here--that laundry lists are no way to conduct foreign policy.

Well, Justin doesn't get it, does he? All the U.S. positions are right and true and there can be no compromise on any of them? Sell out Kosova in order to get help on Iran? That's appeasement. Not under Senator McCain's watch.

The problem with laundry lists is not just rigidity in exchanging priorities As Nikolas Gvosdev wrote. A list could be ordered into a top 10, in which nr1 could be swapped for nr.4 and nr.7

One problem with this list is that it combines criticism of Russia's internal and international policies. McCain probably doesn't see much of a difference, which in essence feeds Moscow's idea of 'souvereign democracy'

The other problem is that short descriptions of goals create black and white images and hamper the search for compromise:

Nuclear targetting is a formality. The difference between preset targets and locking in a new target is a matter of minutes. Putin's remark was made to show European citizens the placement of missiles is more than some ink on paper. They're real. It's obvious that McCain will use VVP's remark as proof of a belligerent attitude. Both are mere words. In reality little has changed.

Kosovo: The West's rigid stance for full souvereinty could very well end up as a missed opportunity for a peaceful compromise of limited autonomy. Why is it necessary to get it all, alienating the Serbs, so creating the pretext for another conflict?

CFE treaty in present day is little more than a symbol of peace. It does not correspond to reality. Again, anger over Russia's strong request to review the treaty is either retoric or lazyness.

Lugovoi. According to its constitution Russia may not exdradite him. Period. This is not a question of political will. Interestingly the russian magazine Ekspert discovered flaws in the english-russian translation of the extradition treaty. In Russian it reads 'cannot' in English 'may not'.

Mysterious deaths of journalists in Russia: During Putin's presidency murders of journalists have dropped from an avarage 15 a year between 1995 and 2004, to 6 in 2005 and 9 in 2006. Every case is one to many, but it will serve truth to note slight improvements.

State-owned media: My impression is that the quality of journalism is improving as a result of predominant state ownership. There is increasingly more effort made in reporting rather than inter clan warfare.

State seizure of assets: Enforcement of legal rules is indeed often arbitrary, but it is enforcement of the rule of law. Who needs to protest when criminals and/or bad managers are deprived of their assets and the end result benefits the russian people? The people who once formally owned these assets.

Talinns Bronze soldier: Mc Cain has to realise Russia has a civil society. Not all anger directed at Estonia comes from the towers of the Kremlin. The Estonian accusation of the Kremlin hacking its state websites is pure nonsense.

Russia's handling of energy resources: What is the problem? Raising prices to market levels? The world should be happy Russia is liberating its former satalites from political leverage by means of subsidised energy. Not to speak of creating incentives for more durable forms of industry.

Ukraine, Georgia: I guess McCain means interference in domestic affairs. Well he who fits the shoe, put it on.

Iran: Moscow's sugestion for using the Azerbeidian radar is a step towards acknowledging a threat coming from Iran. Many in the world however have different ideas for dealing with that threat than Mr. McCain.

Guys, we've been through this before. This is how the the Cold War got restarted at the end of World War II. The fact is, Western foreign policy elites cannot stand it when a Russian government does not submit to their will, preferably before the demands are formulated. There is nothing new about this

The point is, Russia now conducts an independent policy, and McCain, as well as the rest of the Western foreign policy elite, cannot stand that.

What is less clear is what they can do about it. Putin has systematically destroyed the leverage the West has on Russia, so there is nothing we can credibly threaten them with.

And from their experiences of the 1990s, the Russians know better than to expect us to actually help them with anything.

So the Russian government dosen't fear our sticks, and knows that the only carrots we will give them are the ones with poison in them. What does that mean? It means we have no way to get Russia to do what we want. And our foreigh policy elite hates Putin for that!

About Me

I am a professor in the National Security Decision Making faculty of the Naval War College. I am a columnist at World Politics Review, a senior editor at The National Interest, and a contributing editor for the Atlantic Council's New Atlanticist policy blog. DISCLAIMER: All posts reflect my own personal opinions and do not reflect the opinions or positions of the Naval War College, the U.S Navy, the U.S. government, or any other institution with which I am affiliated.