A solid outcome for China’s gross domestic product in 2011 – 9.2% growth despite fears of a sharper slowdown – has panda hunters reaching for their flamethrowers. Derek Scissors of the Heritage Foundation is leading the pack, suggesting that China’s numbers cannot be trusted.

-There are other indicators that suggest growth is lower than the government claims – growth numbers for oil imports, car sales and ship exports are all significantly lower than GDP.

-Foreign exchange reserves fell in the fourth quarter, evidence of capital flight – which suggests China’s economy was less appealing to investors than even dismal alternatives available elsewhere.

-China’s decision to ease policy late in the year hints that growth must have been worse than the official figures are letting on.

While at first glance all three points are striking, none is the smoking gun that convicts China of fabricating its 2011 GDP data

There are good reasons why car sales, ship exports, and oil imports underperformed. Car sales had a very high base for growth after breakneck sales in 2009 and 2010. Oil imports were pinched by the low price of domestic gasoline and diesel, which meant losses for refiners, and slower growth in demand as a result of weak car sales. Ship builders, meanwhile, faced massive overcapacity and declining growth in world trade – both of which dented orders.

It would be just as easy to find numbers that grew faster than GDP. Iron ore imports, exports of electronics, and production of cement all grew faster than the economy as a whole. But that is no more evidence of GDP numbers erring on the downside than slower growth in cars, oil and ships are of erring on the upside. It just shows that not all parts of the economy grow at the same pace as the whole.

Next up, the foreign exchange reserve numbers. China’s FX stash did shrink in the fourth quarter of 2011, and that might suggest capital flight. But a depressed real estate sector, dismal equity markets and diminished expectations on yuan appreciation explain the decision of investors to place their funds elsewhere. They are all the result of deliberate government policy – not of a sharp slowdown in growth.

Lastly, the government’s decision to ease policy in the final months of 2011. There are two points to make here: First, good policy is pre-emptive, coming before and hopefully preventing precipitate falls in growth or increases in inflation. So shifting into easing mode before a slowdown is in full swing makes sense. Second, the shift in policy at the end of 2011 was very moderate – with none of the big stimulus guns coming into play – and so consistent with a moderate slowdown in growth, which is what the data showed.

None of this means China’s data is free from problems. Difficulties measuring a big and fast growing economy, combined with continued imperfections in the statistical system, mean the margin for error in China’s GDP numbers is higher than it would be in the U.S. In some areas, the shortcomings with China’s own numbers have been made up by alternative data sources. Mr. Scissors’ own data set on China’s outbound investment is one such example.

But for now, convincing evidence that the latest GDP numbers are being fabricated, or the NBS is exaggerating the growth rate, remains thin on the ground. The doubters will have to do more to make their case.

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