The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

During migration or in summer, the Black-throated Green Warbler is a common sight across most of eastern North America. While the Audubon climate model predicts an increase in appropriate summer area, an almost total shift in available climate space leaves only 3% of the current available. The Black-throated Green Warbler will have to adapt very quickly to conditions in a completely new breeding range if the projection is borne out. The species is highly migratory, which is an advantage, but much of the new space is far to the west, which may prove a challenge for this largely eastern species.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.