I cover breaking market news and, separately, personal finance for millennials. Got my training on the beat from TODAY show financial editor Jean Chatzky along with my own cornucopia of student loans. They say the best way to learn is by doing, and when it comes to this exercise in student debt, I’m a (reluctant) doer. Penn alum, Philly-area native, millennial-defending millennial.

Shutdown Will Not Affect U.S. Creditworthiness, Moody's Says

Despite John Boehner’s unyielding message on the morning show circuit on Sunday — that the House would not vote to re-open the government or raise the debt ceiling unless President Obama makes changes to the Affordable Care Act — credit-rating service Moody'sMoody's said in a Monday morning report that neither the shutdown nor the impending debt ceiling deadline will affect U.S. creditworthiness.

“The shutdown has no effect on the government’s ability to pay interest and principal on its debt obligations, and therefore does not directly affect the government’s creditworthiness,” the report said, adding that even if the debt ceiling is not raised by the October 17 deadline, Moody’s believes the U.S. would continue to pay both interest and principle on its debts.

The last time there was a debt ceiling showdown, in July 2011, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating for the first time in its history, taking it from a AAA to an AA+; Moody’s and Fitch retained a rating of AAA. In Monday’s report, Moody’s said that the current debt ceiling debate is less dire than that of 2011, noting that “the budget deficit was considerably larger in 2011 than it is currently, so the magnitude of the necessary spending cuts needed after 17 October is lower now than it was then.”

Compared to the last time there was a government shutdown, for 21 days between November 1995 and January 1996, today’s economy is weaker — but not by much. In a note released Monday morning, Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist for S&P Capital IQ, pointed to several key indicators, including GDP growth (which in the fourth quarter of 1995 was 2.8%, compared to 2.5% for the second quarter of 2013) and the S&P 500, which by mid-December of 1995 had posted a 34% year-to-date surge. Comparatively, the S&P has increased 18% year-to-date through September 30, 2013 — meaning that the market had more to lose in 1995 than it does today.

Where the comparison begins to sour, Stovall said, is when we look at the yield on the 10-year note and on the unemployment rate. In 1995, the yield on the Treasury note was 5.7%, compared to today’s meek 2.6% yield. In December of 1995, the unemployment rate was “an admirable” 5.6% versus today’s “sticky” 7.3%.

Ultimately, Stovall concluded, “the reactive, crisis-to-crisis mindset in Washington today will probably continue to act as a headwind to an acceleration of economic growth.” As a result of this, he said, corporate managements may delay expansion plans, and this in turn will affect the economy. ”This reluctance will likely restrain economic and earnings growth rates, as well as investor optimism, and cause the S&P 500 to record a sub-10% price appreciation in the coming 12 months, rather than the 20%+ gains recorded during the final half of the 1990s,” he said.

For those looking for some good news, Stovall did say this: “a positive stock market performance in September has usually been a favorable signal for the final quarter of the year. In the 66 years since 1945, the S&P 500 gained an average 3.7% during Q4 and rose in price 76% of the time. Following positive Septembers – which happened 29 times – the S&P 500 gained an average 4.7% and rose in price 80% of the time.” However, he added, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Despite these relatively positive tones, U.S. investor outlook is low, and stock futures are down significantly. In early Monday trading, the Dow is down by triple digits (125 points at 9:45am ET), and the S&P and Nasdaq are both in the red, down nearly 12 points and 23 points, respectively.

In other market activity, CNBC reports that Apple was upgraded from a “hold” to a “buy” by Jeffries, which said that Apple’s gross margins are likely to be better than expected. Alcoa, which kicks off earnings season with its third quarter report on Tuesday, saw Morgan Stanley downgrade its stock from “overweight” to “equal weight” due to lower aluminum price forecasts. And on the real estate side of things, Goldman Sachs downgraded Toll Brothers from “buy” to “neutral,” saying that the spreading of housing recovery means it’s not necessary to be concentrated on the high end of the home-building spectrum.

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