It is not so much Palmer as karma. Tony Abbott’s biggest test now is not whether he can get the repeal of the carbon tax through Parliament but which road he chooses in dealing with a wild Senate over the next two years.

In opposition, the Prime Minister repeatedly said “there would not be deals done with independent and minor parties under any political movement I lead". He helped generate a sense of chaos around the Gillard government because of its reliance on minor party and independent votes.

On Thursday in the Senate, Clive Palmer showed he is going to play Abbott just as hard as the Prime Minister once played Labor.

Whatever Clive Palmer’s unpredictability, Tony Abbott’s Coalition team has been exposed as woefully unprepared to deal with what it faces in the upper house.
Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

The immediate impact of that may be an onerous penalty regime being written into the carbon laws which will horrify business.

Palmer is not the first anarchist to cause a government Senate chaos.

But such chaos ultimately reflects on the government, not the anarchist.

Voters and business look to the government to deliver its mandate and, dare one say, grown-up government. So the question for the Prime Minister is about a lot more than rhetoric.

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The all or nothing Abbott modus operandi is simply not going to work any more.

Whatever Palmer’s unpredictability, the Coalition team has been exposed as woefully unprepared to deal with what it faces in the upper house.

This is true in both a tactical and strategic sense. Tony Abbott has to reconsider whether his Senate team is up to the job of handling Palmer.

On Wednesday, the Coalition moved to gag debate on the carbon tax, only to be defeated because it had not properly canvassed the cross bench to ensure it would win the vote.

Then on Thursday, there was the extraordinary sight of government ministers filibustering during a second gag motion – after Palmer threw a firecracker into proceedings by claiming he had been double- crossed by the Coalition over amendments – as they scrambled desperately to sort the mess.

Just who said what to who in the negotiations on Wednesday and Thursday is hotly disputed but it almost does not matter.

It is not clear the government double-crossed Palmer.

For its part, the government suggests Palmer was offered a tweaked amendment that would have solved the dispute and chose not to take the solution.

The end result though is a likely Palmer amendment that places onerous reporting requirements on all businesses and stiff penalties for some in return for his party’s support for the repeal of the carbon price.

Those who said the Coalition got all it wanted from Palmer for little cost may have spoken too quickly.

And it highlights the strategic point wiser Coalition heads are making behind the scenes: that the Prime Minister has to start thinking about 80 per cent or 90 per cent outcomes, not 100 per cent wins.

Having invested so much in all or nothing outcomes, this will involve no small change in the way he runs his government.