Tedisco’s lead over Murphy shrinks to 4 points

Democrat Scott Murphy has cut Republican Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco’s 12-point lead from two weeks ago to a 4-point lead, according to the latest Siena Research Institute poll.

With less than three weeks until the March 31st special election, Tedisco leads Murphy 45 percent to 41 percent, just outside the poll’s 3.7 percent margin of error. 13 percent remain undecided.

While two weeks ago, voters said Tedisco would do a better job than Murphy representing them on six issues, Murphy now leads on two of those issues, including the most important issue for 20th C.D. voters: the economy. Murphy leads Tedisco on the economy 42 percent to 38 percent now – two weeks ago, Tedisco lead 34-30.

Murphy continues to have stronger support among Democrats than Tedisco has among the GOP. The biggest shift, however, is among independent voters, who previously gave Tedisco a significant 45-31 percent lead, and now favor Murphy by a 43-37 percent margin.

Nearly 90 percent of voters say they won’t change their minds.

It appears that Murphy’s ads are more effective than Tedisco’s in boosting their respective campaigns – By a margin of 28-20 percent, voters say Murphy’s ads make them more likely to vote for him, with half of voters saying it has no effect on who they plan to support. Only 12 percent of those who have seen Tedisco’s commercials are more likely to support him, while 28 percent say the ads make them less likely to support Tedisco, with 58 percent saying they have had no effect.

This SRI 20th C.D. survey was conducted March 9-10, 2009 by telephone calls to 712 likely voters. It has a margin of error of + 3.7 percentage points. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.

Siena New York 20th Congressional District Poll:
Murphy Cuts Tedisco’s Lead From 12 to 4 Points

Tedisco Rated Better on 4 Issues; Murphy on 2, Including Economy

Murphy Now Leads with Independent Voters, After Trailing 2 Weeks Ago

Loudonville, NY. With less than three weeks until the special election in the 20th C.D., Democrat Scott Murphy has cut Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco’s 12-point lead by two-thirds. Tedisco now leads the race 45-41 percent, having led two weeks ago by a 46-34 percent margin, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters. While two weeks ago, voters said Tedisco would do a better job than Murphy representing them on six issues, Murphy now leads on two of those issues, including the most important issue for 20th C.D. voters: the economy.

“Scott Murphy has significantly narrowed the gap against Jim Tedisco, trailing by only four points in a district that has a 15-point Republican enrollment edge,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. “Only 13 percent of voters remain undecided – down from 20 percent – and nearly 90 percent of voters say they are absolutely or fairly certain they will not change their minds.

“Murphy continues to do a better job of holding the support of Democrats, than Tedisco does with Republicans. The big turnaround from two weeks ago, however, is among independent voters, who previously gave Tedisco a significant 45-31 percent lead, and now favor Murphy by a 43-37 percent margin,” Greenberg said. “Tedisco’s leads in the Capital District and Hudson Valley fell slightly, while Murphy turned a slim two-point lead in the northern counties of the district into a now dramatic 25-point lead.”

“Both candidates have become more known to voters over the last few weeks, as airwaves have been inundated with commercials and mailboxes have been filled with messages from both campaigns,” Greenberg said. “Tedisco remains better known, with both higher favorable and unfavorable ratings from the voters.

“Eight in ten voters have seen or heard a commercial for Murphy, while 86 percent have seen or heard a Tedisco ad. By a margin of 28-20 percent, voters say Murphy’s ads make them more likely to vote for him, with half of voters saying it has no effect on who they plan to support. Only 12 percent of those who have seen Tedisco’s commercials are more likely to support him, while 28 percent say the ads make them less likely to support Tedisco, with 58 percent saying they have had no effect,” Greenberg said.

“Voters continue to overwhelmingly think Tedisco will do a better job on homeland security. And by small margins, they also give him the edge on health care, education and bringing federal money into the district. Now, however, more voters think that Murphy will do a better job on successfully ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and on addressing the economy, which is far and away the most important issue voters want their new Member of Congress to address,” Greenberg said.

“Nearly three weeks are left in this hard fought campaign. There’s plenty of time for voters to see more commercials and read more mail and learn more about the candidates. But this is a March 31st election and the key for the campaigns will be in identifying their voters and getting them to the polls,” Greenberg said.

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This SRI 20th C.D. survey was conducted March 9-10, 2009 by telephone calls to 712 likely voters. It has a margin of error of + 3.7 percentage points. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.