Daily Rate Update: January 28th-February 1st

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 304,000 jobs were created in January as the labor market continues to remain on very solid ground. However, there was a large 70,000 downward revision for November and December. But even with that, the three-month job creation average is at a strong 240,000.

The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4% from 3.9% while the Labor Force Participation Rate rose to 63.2%, the highest since August 2013. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% from December and up a solid 3.2% year-over-year, which matches the annual December reading. Total unemployed, or the U6 number, rose to 8.1% from 7.6%. Overall, this is another solid report.

Manufacturing activity across the U.S. remained strong in January while the U.S. economy grew for the 117th consecutive month. The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 56.6 in January, above the 53.6 expected. The report read that continued expanding business strength was supported by strong demand and output.

The partial government shutdown ended last Friday so the delay of sales of newly built homes for November was reported today with a big number. November New Homes Sales jumped 17% from October to an annual rate of 657,000 units, well above the 555,000 expected. However, sales were down 7.7% from November 2017. Across the country, sales jumped 100% in the Northeast, up 30.5% in the Midwest, up 20.6% in the South with a 5.9% decline in the West. There was a six-month supply of homes for sale on the market which is seen as normal. A solid report, though somewhat backward looking due to the delay in reporting the numbers.

Mortgage rates were essentially unchanged in the latest week after the rise seen from January 2018 through November. Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average 4.46% this week with an average 0.50 in points and fees. A year ago this time, the rate was 4.22%. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says, “Purchase applications were down this week after soaring early in the year. However, softening house price appreciation along with increasing inventory of homes on the market – and historically low mortgage rates – should give a boost to the spring homebuying season.”

Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits rose to a near two and a half year high in the latest week. The partial government shutdown could be attributed to the jump in claims. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose 53,000 in the week ended January 26, above the 220,000 expected. The four-week moving average of initial claims, which irons out seasonal abnormalities, rose 5,000 to 220,250.

The labor market continues to produce strong numbers while the U.S. economy remains on solid ground. ADP reports that private employment grew by 213,000 in January, well above the 170,000 expected. December was revised lower to 263,000 from 271,000 and also a strong number. “The labor market has continued its pattern of strong growth with little sign of a slowdown in sight. Midsized businesses continue to lead job creation, however the share of jobs was spread a bit more evenly across all company sizes this month,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

Contracts signed but not yet closed for home purchases fell again in December, according the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Pending Homes Sales fell 2.2% from November to December and are down nearly 10% from December 2017. It was the lowest December reading since December 2013 and marks 12 straight months of annual declines. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, cited several reasons for the decline in pending sales. “The stock market correction hurt consumer confidence, record high home prices cut into affordability and mortgage rates were higher in October and November for consumers signing contracts in December,” he said.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged in the latest week and have remained near current levels for several weeks now. The MBA said the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 4.76% in the week ended January 25 with 0.47 in points. Within the report it showed that the refinance index fell 6% while the purchase index fell 2%. The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990.

Home price gains slowed in November and are now coming back down to more normal levels. The Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 4.7% from November 2017 to November 2018, down from 5% in October. On a monthly basis, the 20-City Index rose 0.3%. The report read that stable 2% inflation, continued employment growth and rising wages are all favorable to the housing market ahead of the spring buying season.

Consumer Confidence edged lower in January from December to 120.2 from 126.6 though the index remains just below the all-time high levels, reported the Conference Board. Within the report it showed that those stating jobs are “plentiful” increased marginally, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” also increased. “Shock events such as government shutdowns tend to have sharp, but temporary, impacts on consumer confidence. Thus, it appears that this month’s decline is more the result of a temporary shock than a precursor to a significant slowdown in the coming months,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators.

This week the U.S. financial markets will get a big dose of economic data along with a central bank meeting. The week features the two-day Fed meeting which kicks off on Tuesday and ends Wednesday with the monetary policy statement release at 2:00 p.m. ET. There is a zero percent chance of a hike at this meeting. The jobs data will come by way of Wednesday’s ADP Private Payrolls and Friday’s government Jobs Report, both for January.

If that weren’t enough, the Treasury will be selling a total of $113 billion in Treasury securities. In addition, the heart of earnings season takes place this week and the results could impact the markets. Caterpillar reported an earnings miss and lower future guidance today, which is weighing on stocks this morning. U.S. and China trade talks will also take place this week.

The partial government shutdown temporarily ended on Friday as federal workers are eager to get back to work and receive their back pay. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reports that the shutdown cost the U.S. economy $11 billion, though a big portion of the $11 billion will be reversed as the government opens and workers return to work though $3 billion of the $11 billion will be permanently lost. Lawmakers now have until February 15 to hammer out a long-term deal.