NFL Picks – Divisional Round

The Colts are rolling but have yet to face anything like what awaits them in Kansas City. Also, the Eagles must overcome their 4th quarter woes to have a chance in New Orleans.

Last Week: 3 – 1 – 0Playoffs: 3 – 1 – 0

Saturday, January 12 (4:35PM ET)

(6) Colts at (1) Chiefs
Comparing schedules is a lot of fun and mostly worthless. I love worthless
tasks, so let’s get to it… There’s been a lot love coming the Colts way of
late. Winning 10 of 11 will get that kind of attention. Who cares if only three
of those wins came against playoff teams. The Colts have proven themselves as
legitimate contenders in an AFC playoff field that is completely up for grabs.
You know whose resume is weaker than expected? The Chiefs.

Kansas City only lost four times this season. If one were to
look closer, though, they’d see the Chiefs are only 2-4 against playoff teams.
Such is life when you own one of the NFL’s worst defenses. Ten spots stand
between Kansas City’s defense and the next closest playoff team (Rams) in
points allowed. In total yards, there are seven spots between them and an
Eagles defense that found three quarters of its secondary outside of Wawa. The
Chiefs also surrender the most 1st downs per game in the NFL, nearly
three more than the league’s second worst team. There’s just not a lot of room
for error for Patrick Mahomes and that offense, if any at all.

Furthermore, the Chiefs have been dreadful in the postseason under Andy Reid. They’re 1-4 overall and even worse; 0-2 at home. It’s almost impossible to trust this team in the postseason.

Almost.

There’s hope in Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes was not a part of
the aforementioned January struggles. While Kansas City did not surpass 21
points in their last three playoff losses, it’s hard to imagine history
repeating itself Saturday. The Chiefs lowest output this season was 26 and they
scored 30 or more in 12 games. I know it’s the playoffs and offenses slow down,
but Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are too good, and there’s no Alex
Smith to scuttle their efforts this time.

Back to the schedule thing… the Colts haven’t really played
an offense anywhere near Kansas City’s caliber. Outside of their loss to the
Patriots, nothing on Indianapolis’ schedule even comes close. Of their 16
games, the Colts opponent in eight of them finished ranked between 26th
and 31st in points per game. Even worse, 9 of Indianapolis’
opponents finished between 25th and 31st in yards per
game. The Colts faced an offense in the top half of the NFL in points or yards
only three times this season and only one opponent (New England) ranked among
the top ten in either stat. If you look at their loss to the Patriots or Texans
(with Will Fuller), you’ll find the Colts surrendered 37 and 38 points,
respectively, allowed over 425 yards of offense, and Tom Brady and Deshaun
Watson both threw for more than 340 yards. Kansas City’s offense AVERAGED 35
points per game, and Mahomes AVERAGED 320 yards passing.

It’s understandable why the Colts are generating so much
upset buzz, but the truth is there’s no proof they can stop Kansas City’s
offense any more than Kansas City can stop theirs. Besides, Andy Reid is due. CHIEFS If I were Charles Barkley; Chiefs -5

Saturday, January 12 (8:15PM ET)

(4) Cowboys at (2) Rams
My second favorite outcome from Wildcard Weekend was Cowboys fans thanking the
Eagles for saving them from the Saints and Rams fans thanking the Eagles for
saving them from the Bears. Both fan bases are overconfident about their
chances this weekend and it saddens me both can’t be wrong.

The Cowboys biggest issue is their coach is a dope and their
quarterback is as erratic as they come. On the other hand, Dak Prescott has
proven himself a gamer, especially in his brief postseason career. While he
missed a handful of throws against Seattle, he also made several big plays and redeemed
himself for a bad 4th quarter interception with a game-breaking 17
yard run on 3rd and 16. Remember, Prescott also went toe-to-toe with
Aaron Rodgers two years ago before Rodgers miraculously hit Jared Cook to set
up the winning field goal. Prescott isn’t great, he may not even be good, but
he can elevate in small batches.

If the Cowboys lose, it’ll boil down to Jason Garrett
relying too heavily on Prescott while ignoring Ezekiel Elliott and the run
game. Even in last week’s victory over Seattle I thought Garrett didn’t run the
ball enough. Elliott is probably the NFL’s best runner and Garrett refused to
run on 2nd down. It often forced Dallas into 3rd and
longs. In my opinion, if Seattle’s coaching staff didn’t neuter Russell Wilson
and the offense, the Cowboys would have found themselves in trouble. Dallas was
4/11 on 3rd down and struggled to find any offensive rhythm until
late in the 3rd quarter.

On the flip side, the Rams defense hasn’t been anywhere near
as good as advertised back in September. While they’ve held opponents to fewer
than 27 points in half their games this season, those eight teams aren’t
exactly… explosive. Only two of those eight ranked among the league’s top 16
offenses, though neither were among the top 12. No, the Rams aren’t perfect, and
they’re not the offensive juggernaut we thought they were in October either, but
their offense is significantly more potent than Seattle’s.

On that note, here’s an unpopular take: Dallas’ defense is a
bit overrated. You can throw on them. They’re middle of the pack in sacks and
sack percentage. They rank 23rd in 3rd down conversion
percentage and finished 27th in interceptions. Conversely, the Rams
offense ranks among the top ten in nearly every passing category, including 3rd
down conversions, passing touchdowns, yards, and perhaps most importantly, pass
protection. Jared Goff has been hit or miss down the stretch, but like most
quarterbacks, when given time, he’s able to move the ball and score points.

Essentially, Dallas has to control the ball to win. Though
the Cowboys certainly have all the tools to accomplish that task, trusting
Garrett to see it through is a bridge too far for me. He’s the biggest weakness
to what is otherwise a really solid team. RAMS
If I were Charles Barkley; Rams -7

Sunday, January 13 (1:05PM ET)

(5) Chargers at (2) Patriots It’s shocking to say, but the Patriots are the worst of the remaining eight playoff teams. I know it’s foolish to doubt Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. I know they’re the most successful postseason duo in NFL history. I also know that team stinks. The offense has been a mess since the beginning of November and it’s been pretty clear Brady’s options at receiver are his worst since the Reche Caldwell days. Of course, Rob Gronkowski playing at 65% of what he once was certainly doesn’t help. If there’s a path to New England advancing against a superior opponent it starts with Belichick having two weeks to prepare his defense. It’s not like New England hasn’t elevated its play at times this season. They’ve proven themselves capable of beating good teams. New England finished 4-0 against playoff teams and 7-5 against everyone else. However, all of those four victories came before Halloween.

This is the Chargers game to lose, and losing gets a lot
easier if Melvin Gordon is limited by injury. With a healthy Gordon, the
Chargers can attack New England’s greatest weakness all afternoon. Their
linebackers are slow and terrible in pass coverage. Gordon was one of the
league’s premier backs out of the backfield before his injury late in the
season. He didn’t look explosive last week against Baltimore. Whether that was
a product of his injury or Baltimore’s great defense remains to be seen, but
I’d lean toward the injury. If Gordon can’t be the workhouse, the Chargers
hopes will fall on Philip Rivers’ shoulders.

I thought Rivers was great last week in that he didn’t try
to do too much against a great defense. He never got greedy. While he’ll have
more opportunities for big plays this week, he must maintain the same outlook because
New England’s secondary is really good and the obvious strength of that
defense. Turnovers are Los Angeles’ recipe for disaster. The Charger defense is
built to run with offenses like New England’s. Given the talent discrepancy,
Rivers getting loose with the ball is the Patriot’s best option. I feel so
confident in the Chargers winning but feel so scared to pick against Brady and
Belichick. CHARGERS If I were Charles Barkley; Chargers +4

Sunday, January 13 (4:40PM ET)

(6) Eagles at (1) Saints
Nothing would shock me more than the Eagles losing by 41 points again. It took
most of the season, but the Eagles have finally found some stability on the
back end with Avonte Maddox and Cre’von LeBlanc. Unfortunately, stability
doesn’t equate to dominance. The Eagles are still vulnerable in the secondary.
As they’ve done all season, they missed on several turnover opportunities last
week and let their aggressiveness work to the opponent’s advantage. Maddox
looked like Jalen Mills in the 2nd half against Chicago, biting on
every double move to disastrous results. It’s a miracle Malcolm Jenkins hasn’t
lost his mind this year.

Given the condition of the secondary, what lead would feel
safe Sunday in New Orleans? 17? No, already blew that one twice. 20? Probably
not against Drew Brees and that offense. 24? Maybe. If you think I’m crazy,
take a look at the offensive numbers against the Eagles over their last four 4th
quarters (Washington game excluded because, you know, Josh Johnson doesn’t
count).

For you non-math people out there, if the Eagles played the
first three quarters like they do the 4th, they’d surrender 777
yards and 53 points per game. Not great.

So what happens in fourth quarters that cause the defense to
implode? I don’t know for sure, but I have two guesses. 1. The defensive line
is toast at that point. It’s no secret this defense goes as far as the front
line takes them. If they’re wreaking havoc and getting pressure, everything
else falls into place. Unfortunately, the loss of Derek Barnett and the
disastrous season for Tim Jernigan have hurt the depth of the unit. There’s
just not enough juice left come crunch time. 2. Malcolm Jenkins is the only
starter on the back end. He’s the only guy back there that was back there
during last season’s playoff run. (Corey Graham was on the team but not on the
field nearly this much). In chaotic moments, players draw on experience and
trust. This unit has been together for less than two months. It’s fair to say
that (and the results demonstrate as much) no one really knows what to do or
what the other guys are going to do. Experience as a unit matters more in the
secondary than any other unit with perhaps the offensive line as the only
exception.

Can the Eagles win? Sure. Doug Pederson must take the same
approach he took into the Super Bowl. He has to play loose and create advantages.
Punting shouldn’t be an option once near midfield assuming reasonable down and
distance. The offense must add packages the Saints aren’t expecting. More
Dallas Goedert comes to mind. Maybe Mike Wallace plays and gives the Eagles the
deep threat they’ve painfully missed all season long. Penalties must be kept to
a minimum, and the team, especially the defense, must capitalize on opportunities
for big plays.

Nick Foles and the offense should be able to move the ball
and score points, but without an effective running game and a workhorse back,
they won’t be able to control the game. They’ll require a heroic effort from
the defense. The defense is capable of such an effort for most of the game, but
history doesn’t lie, and their history in the 4th quarter has been a
slaughter. SAINTS If I were Charles Barkley; Eagles +9