Porter only certain Dolphins Pro Bowl player

The 2009 Pro Bowl rosters for the AFC and NFC teams will be announced Tuesday afternoon but despite a titillating 9-5 record and all you've heard about how enthusiastically fans voted for the Dolphins, only one Miami player seems certain of getting picked to play in the game.

Joey Porter.

Porter, an outside linebacker, leads the AFC with 17.5 half so he has the statistics to deserve attention with players and coaches aside from the attention he already got in fan voting.

Fan voting makes up one-third of the weighted system that picks the Pro Bowl rosters. Players vote to make up one-third and coaches vote to make up one-third.

Miami rookie offensive tackle Jake Long was the top vote-getter from fans, which suggests he will be in the game. But the truth is Denver rookie Ryan Clady has been better this year, while Tennessee's Michael Roos and Cleveland's Joe Thomas will also garner a large number of votes from coaches and players.

So Long might make the team. But he's not quite a lock.

Running back Ronnie Brown finished second in the fan balloting. I don't see how that will translate to a him actually being on the team based on his statistics.

Tennessee's Chris Johnson and Thomas Jones of the New York Jets each have better statistics than Brown. San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson will garner votes based on the respect he has around the league. And Houston rookie Steve Slaton also has produced more than Brown, although the wild card with him is the coaches and players may not know his body of work based on the fact he is a rookie and plays in Houston -- perhaps the reasons fans didn't vote for him, either.

Dolphins rookie kicker Dan Carpenter easily won the kicker category among the fan voters. But the truth Carpenter probably doesn't deserve to be the AFC's kicker this year. That honor seems more like to go to Stephen Gostkowski of New England.

While Carpenter has connected on 19 of 23 field goals for an 83 successful conversion percentage, Gostkowski has booted them true on 30 of 33 attempts for a 90 successful conversion percentage. Tennessee's Rob Bironas also has a 90 percent rate after hitting 28 of 31 this season.

So unless the Montana contingent that stuffed the fan ballot box suddenly got jobs playing and coaching in the NFL, Carpenter might have to bide his time before he's the Pro Bowl pick.