Priyanka entry to harm both BJP and SP-BSP combine

The
BJP has been disparaging Congress President Rahul Gandhi’s move to catapult his
sister #Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to the fore front of the electoral battle for the
Lok Sabha in Uttar Pradesh. The Samajwadi Party, a constituent of the combine
formed by the Akhilesh Yadav led party with Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party has
reacted cautiously to the move. The BSP on the other hand has been almost
silent on Priyanka Gandhi’s entering active politics.

Whether
the rival parties disparage or ignore Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s move joining
active politics, it is going to have a far reaching impact on the political
scenario in the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 members to the
Lok Sabha.

Before
this development, the #SP-BSP combine was almost certain to win the bulk of the
seats from the state in a virtual straight fight with the BJP. Pre-poll surveys
were predicting that the combine would win nearly three fourths of the total 80
seats. The Congress tally, most surveys said, would be in single digits.

With
the decision to propel Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to the political stage, the
Congress has made it clear that it would not be satisfied with just a couple of
seats in the crucial Hindi heartland state, but would go all out to make its
presence felt.

This
is making both the BJP and the SP-BSP combine uneasy because the move is likely
to harm both. The BJP of course is hoping that the move will be more damaging
to the SP-BSP combine than to the saffron party. Whether Priyanka Vadra’s entry
into active politics harms the BJP or the SP-BSP combine more, it is certain to
come as a booster to the moribund Congress organization in Uttar Pradesh.

No cake walk for any political party

It
is becoming increasingly clear that there will be no cake walk for any political party in the Lok Sabha
elections due in three or four months time. The battle is going to be tough
both for the BJP, which is bidding for another term in power, and the Congress,
which is fighting to reclaim its political relevance. The constituents, actual
and potential, of the proposed federal or third front have also their task
cutout.

My assessment is that the BJP and the Congress will find it difficult to cross the 150 mark in the Lok Sabha elections. The prospective federal front constituents would most likely be just behind them or level with them.

Total

State

BJP

NDA Allies

Cong.

UPA Allies

Reg. Part.

L Part.

J&KPBHARHPCHD

1032—

—2———

210421

—————

313——

—————

6131041

UPBHRJHUK

18733

273—

9422

—225—

51—1—

————

8040145

MPCGRAJDEL

121102

—1——

159151

2———

———4

————

2911257

MAHGUJGOA

11151

9——

13111

15——

———

———

48262

WBORI

34

——

33

——

3114

5—

4221

NE

12

3

5

—

5

—

25

TN &PUDAPTELKARKERDAD &NHD&DLAK

23—9—

1

24———

—

423138

2

30——64

—

21614——

—

————8

—

4025172820

3

A&N

—

—

1

—

—

—

1

123

33

145

84

145

13

543

Prospects
look bleak for the BJP in the North Western region of the country where the
party may just have to remain satisfied with six seats out of the total thirty
four. In the North-Central region of the country comprising Uttar Pradesh,
Bihar and Jharkhand, the BJP may just win 31 seats out of the total 139. With
the #Samajwadi Party of Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati’s #Bahujan Samaj Party
coming together, the BJP would be hard put to touch even the 20 mark of the 80
Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh. In neighbouring Bihar, the NDA alliance of
BJP, Janata Dal United and Lok Janshakti Party will face a tough challenge from
the RJD led #Mahagathbandhan, of which the Congress is also a constituent. In
Jharkhand also, the NDA prospects are no brighter.

In
Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh and Rajasthan, the BJP will not be able to repeat
its clean sweep of 2014. The Congress, which has won the Assembly elections in
these states, will be upbeat and try to win at least two thirds of the Lok
Sabha seats from these states.

In
Maharashtra, the situation is no better for the BJP. The Congress and the
Nationalist Congress Party have almost finalized an alliance in the state. The
Congress-NCP combine will pose a tough challenge to the BJP, especially if it
is not able to work out an alliance or seat sharing arrangement with the Shiv
Sena. Shiv Sena Chief #Uddhav Thackeray has already announced that his party
will fight the Lok Sabha elections on its own and not in alliance with any
other political party. In Gujarat, the BJP can’t hope to sweep the 26 Lok Sabha
seats as it did in 2014. From the fight put up by the Congress in the last
Assembly elections, it is clear that the Congress cannot be written off in the
state. It may win anywhere from 10 to 12 seats in Gujarat.

In
the eastern states of West Bengal and Orissa, the BJP is hoping to make
substantial gains, but the situation on the ground does not support the
aspiration. The bulk of the seats in these two states are going to be won by
the major regional parties which are now ruling there. The BJP as well as the
Congress may have to remain satisfied with small change in these two states.

In
the North-East, the BJP may make some gains but as the total number of seats is
only 25, the gains may not be of much significance overall.

In
the southern states, which have 130 odd seats, the BJP would struggle to get
even 20 seats. Its tally is going to be much less even if it is able to enter
into alliances with the dominant regional parties in Tamil Nadu and Andhra
Pradesh.

#Murmurs of dissent in BJP

With
portents of defeat in the general elections, there are increasing rumblings in
the ruling camp. Union Minister #Nitin Gadkari, who is seen as a potential
Prime Minister if the BJP fails to get a majority on its own, has again been in
the news for his remarks. Speaking at a function in Mumbai on January 27, he
said political leaders who sell dreams to people but fail to make them a
reality get “beaten up” by the people. A month back, in December 2018, Gadkari
had said that the leadership should have the courage to own up defeat and
failures. The remarks had come days after BJP failed to retain power in
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh in the Assembly elections.

Nitin
Gadkari is known to be close to the RSS, the mother organization of the BJP.
Many people believe that Gadkari may have had the RSS go ahead before uttering
his recent remarks.

The
race for the Lok Sabha is wide open and it appears to be anybody’s game.

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