Charter debate making NDP vulnerable in Quebec: experts

The fierce debate over the proposed Charter of Quebec Values has rattled the federal landscape in the province. The PQ’s plan to impose a public service dress code is driving a wedge between old-stock francophones and new Canadians — and experts suggest the New Democrats may have the most to lose.

While it’s not clear how the province’s politics will look in two years’ time, when Quebecers and Canadians head to the polls, it’s almost certain the Liberals and the NDP will have to duke it out for every seat. In what many expect will be a close national election, Quebec could be the province that decides who occupies Stornoway after 2015.

Earlier this summer, Parti Quebecois Premier Pauline Marois proposed a ban on the display of most religious clothing and symbols by public servants. The proposed bill has come under attack from all three federalist party leaders and has even split the ranks of the separatists themselves.

Some senior MPs question whether the heated debate around the proposed charter will have any lasting impact. In an interview, the Conservatives’ Quebec lieutenant Denis Lebel said there is nothing in the proposed legislation that “upsets” him.

With just a handful of Quebec seats, and with a Conservative agenda regarded with hostility by many Quebecers, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is unlikely to be an influential player in Quebec in the next election.

But vote-splitting between the two federalist parties and the Bloc could result in some seats slipping into the Conservative column, said Quebec political strategist Christopher Skeete.

“I think mostly there might be one or two instances where the Conservatives might pick something up, but I think the Bloc will be the big winner,” he said.

A Leger poll released last week found support for Marois’ charter had dropped from about 57 per cent to 43 per cent province-wide. However, the plan remains popular in rural, francophone Quebec.

For that reason, some experts believe the Bloc could see a resurgence in the next general election. While support for the separatist party has crashed in recent years, by supporting Marois’ charter the Bloc can continue to claim they are standing up for Quebec’s unique identity in regions where they have always been strong. For the Bloc to improve its presence in the House of Commons, however, some political scientists suggest the party needs to improve its credibility and presence.

“By taking a stand for the proposed charter of Quebec values, the Bloc will be able to win seats in Quebec’s regions (rural ridings),” said Emmanuelle Richez, a political science professor at Concordia University.

“We’ve seen in the past that support for the Bloc Quebecois always will increase when there is a nationalist crisis, an identity crisis … and I think we could see the same thing again around the charter of Quebec values.”

But the same can’t be said for the NDP, which took most of the Bloc’s seats in the last election. Few observers believe Mulcair can maintain all 59 Quebec seats former leader Jack Layton won in the last federal election, especially those outside the greater Montreal area where support for the charter is high. In fact, Mulcair’s decision to slam the proposed charter, a week after Liberal leader Justin Trudeau did so, could hurt him in Quebec, said Concordia political science professor Guy Lachapelle.

“I’m not sure his position of using the money from his party to go to court to against the charter whatever happens is a good decision for Quebec voters,” Lachapelle said. “You cannot be the leader of the party and using the money of your party, especially when your people are elected of Quebec, to go against the Quebec government.”

In the last general election, the NDP gained support from many left-leaning Bloc supporters looking for an alternative to the traditional governing parties. Now, both the Liberal and NDP are fighting for the votes of francophones looking for a federal alternative who are neither strong sovereigntists or strong federalists, said Sébastien Dallaire of Leger Marketing.

Unlike the NDP, the Bloc has nowhere to go but up — a comeback Skeet said will likely happen at the NDP’s expense. The Bloc, he said, will pick up a lot of ridings the NDP won in the last election, especially those outside Montreal.

And University of Ottawa political science professor André Lecours agrees, saying the NDP needs to adopt more realistic expectations or risk losing seats.

“Muclair has the real challenge because expectations are too high,” he told iPolitics.

However, Jack Layton’s former chief of staff Anne McGrath says you can’t count the NDP out just yet. A recent CROP poll found support for the NDP in Quebec at 33 per cent, with the Liberals 31 per cent; the Bloc was a distant third with just 17 per cent.

The NDP, she said, has an unmatched strength in Quebec, which will help the party campaign on the issues Quebecers find important.

“It’s about pointing out the values and what people want out of their political representatives in the provinces,” she said. “We saw a rejection of the old divide in the last election and we saw people coming together and expressing the values of people in Quebec.”

The NDP’s name recognition in the province, its success in the last election and Mulcair’s experience at both the provincial and federal level, added McGrath, will give the NDP an advantage.

“What we have seen is that that support has been steady and consistent and they have been building on it, building riding associations, fundraising, going door to door, talking about their issues,” she added.

And maintaining a strong presence in Quebec will be all the more important for Mulcair, now that some of his best-known MPs from English Canada are considering a jump into B.C. politics.

To hold their base in Quebec, Richez said, the NDP will need to focus on convincing soft nationalists to support the party, just like they did in 2011. Unlike Trudeau, she added, Mulcair has the advantage of a large Quebec caucus and a team of loyal organizers to campaign door-to-door.

Trudeau, on the other hand, will need to convince Quebecers he can bridge the gap between English and French-speaking Canada — and target efforts toward ridings once held by Paul Martin and Jean Chretien and those the Liberals nearly won in 2011.

“For Trudeau, it’s going to be about showing that he wants to do politics differently and can connect on a personal level with voters,” said Richez.

Despite Trudeau’s steady rise in the polls, many professors and strategists told iPolitics they doubt the charismatic Quebecer will be able to carry the province like many of his predecessors. In its heyday, the Liberal Party held all but one of the province’s ridings, compared to just seven today. Gaining seats, said Lecours and other experts, will be easier for Trudeau than anyone else: Quebecers who voted Liberal in the past, they said, are ready for the return of the brand.

“I don’t think Trudeau has to do a lot,” said Lecours. “I think he’s going to hope that fatigue with the government does that for him and that the NDP support in Quebec isn’t solid.”