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Coldest temperatures since March

November 10, 2017

Coldest temperatures since March:

At least 35 Minnesota climate stations reported subzero low temperatures this week, the first time that has happened since the second week of last March. Celina (St Louis County) reported a low temperature of -17°F on November 10th, a new all-time state record low for this date. In addition a number of northern Minnesota communities reported new record lows on November 10th as well, including -16°F at Orr (St Louis County), -15°F at Bigfork (Itasca County County), -14°F at Embarrass, and -13°F Cotton, and Brimson. So far average November temperatures around the state are running 6 to 12 degrees F colder than normal, with several new record low temperatures reported on both November 8th and November 10th. On a statewide basis the first ten days of November have been the coldest since 1995.

A distinct change in the temperature pattern for the month is coming next week, as temperatures are expected to rise to above normal values over Tuesday through Friday. Perhaps this is our chance to catch-up on outdoor chores!

January-October 2017 USA Climate Trending Warm and Wet:

NOAA announced this week that the first 10 months of 2017 have been the 3rd warmest in history across the USA (for data back to 1895). They also noted that the January-October period for the nation as a whole was the 2nd wettest in history as well. For Minnesota the rankings are more modest. The first 10 months of 2017 have been the 9th warmest in history, and the 31st wettest in history. This year marks the 6th consecutive wetter than normal year across Minnesota, and the 12th in the last 14 years.

Lake Superior Storm Festival:

For those who like to make a trip to the north shore4 of Lake Superior during the autumn season, you might want to consider the weekend of November 10-12 in order to attend the 5th Annual Lake Superior Storm Festival. A variety of events will take place at Lutsen Resort and in Grand Marais. Among many other activities, I will be speaking at Lutsen Resort on Saturday, November 11th at 3pm with a program titled "A History of Great November Storms on Lake Superior."

25th Annual Kuehnast Lecture:

I have the honor of giving the 25th Anniversary Kuehnast Endowment Lecture next week on November 16th, 2pm at the McNamara Center on the University of Minnesota Minneapolis Campus. I hope to combine some science, history, and stories over the past 40 years as Extension Climatologist for the University of Minnesota. If you are interested, please come as this is a public event.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

NOAA scientists announced this week that La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean now exist. There is a 65-75 percent chance that weak La Nina conditions will persist throughout the Northern Hemisphere winter and therefore have some effect on the weather patterns across North America. This could translate to colder than normal temperatures and perhaps more snow for portions of northern Minnesota.

There consecutive years of below average rainfall across portions of South Africa have caused significant drops in reservoir water supplies in many places, including Cape Town where water rationing has now begun. There is hope that the November-December period, corresponding to the Southern Africa Monsoon Season, will bring more abundant rainfall and help alleviate the drought there. NOAA's Tom Di Liberto writes about this.

Yale Climate Connections reports this week that senior citizens have been provoked enough with climate science research that they are mobilizing in some states to advocate for climate actions (both adaptation and mitigation) at the local, state, and federal levels of government. Such is the case for a group of elders in Massachusetts.

Tropical Storm Haikui was churning across the South China Sea in the Western Pacific Ocean this week generating strong winds and high seas. It was expected to bring stormy conditions to portions of Vietnam later in the weekend.

The BBC News Service announced this week that an automated, real-time reporting weather station has now been installed on the United Kingdom's highest landscape, Ben Nevis, a peak that sits at 4411 feet above sea level. This is thought to be one of the windiest and snowiest spots in the United Kingdom and now thanks to some work by the scientists for the UK National Environmental Research Council there will be a constant data stream from this location, also accompanied by a real-time webcam.

A new study by researchers at UC-Irvine suggests that two to four times as many coastal glaciers associated with the Greenland Ice Sheet are at risk of accelerated melting due to climate change as previously thought. Part of this is due to the much warmer, deeper waters off the Greenland coastline that more rapidly melt the bottom of glaciers that extend out into the sea.

MPR listener question:

Just got back from an autumn vacation and I am wondering how much longer I might be able to plant daffodils, tulips, and crocus. I usually have planted the bulbs in my garden by this time of year and know I need to do it well before the soils freeze up.

Answer:

You still have some time to plant bulbs, but I would not wait any longer. With the cold start to November soil temperatures around the state have cooled into the mid 30s F to low 40s F already. The soil temperatures at a 4 inch depth ranged from 36°F to 42°F across southern and central Minnesota this week. A warming trend will begin this weekend and carry on most of next week, so soil temperatures should remain well above freezing, in the 30s and 40s F for at least another 10 days or so.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 10th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 45 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 29 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

Average dew point for November 10th is 26°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 56°F in 2012; and the minimum dew point on this date is 2°F in 1991.

All-time state records for November 10th:

The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 78 degrees F at Winona Dam (Winona County) in 1999; the all-time state low for today's date is -15 degrees F at Big Falls (Koochiching County) in 1933. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 2.80 inches at Minnesota City (Winona County) in 1975. Record snowfall is 12.4 inches at Moorhead (Clay County) in 1919.

Past Weather Features:

A slow-moving and massive winter storm crossed the state over November 9-10, 1896 leaving a swath of heavy snow across southern and western counties. Many areas of the state reported 8-12 inches of snow. Fairmont and Albert Lea reported over 13 inches. Farmers trying to finish up field work were plagued by many snow storms that much. Many areas of the state reported 20-30 inches of snow in total for November of 1896.

Probably the coldest November 10 in state history occurred in 1933, as an Arctic High Pressure system descended on the state bringing subzero temperature readings to 16 locations. Both Big Falls and Mizpah (both in Koochiching County) reported lows of -15 degrees F. The temperature never rose above 20 degrees F at Fosston (Polk County) that day.

A hurricane-strength November storm over Lake Superior on November 10, 1975 sank the Edmund Fitzgerald, with a loss of 29 lives. The storm produced rain, ice, and snow, with gale force winds and extremely large waves.

Some Minnesota citizens took the day off work to play golf on Wednesday, November 10, 1999. It was sunny and warm with over 40 communities reporting afternoon high temperatures from the low to upper 70s F. The temperature never fell below 50 degrees F at Winona and reached a high of 78 degrees F.

Outlook:

Warming up this weekend with a chance for mixed precipitation in southern sections on Saturday and snow flurries in the north. A chance of freezing drizzle in some southern counties on Saturday night. Partly cloudy on Sunday, then warmer yet on Monday through Thursday of next week, with above normal temperatures and a chance for showers on Tuesday and Thursday.