This paper describes research into how the smell of foods impact on consumers and relates this to product launches in Asia. View Summary

This paper describes research into how the smell of foods impact on consumers and relates this to product launches in Asia. The typical development cycle for food product variations is long, with many iterations along the cycle. Research has found that rejection or acceptance of a new food is based on aroma, with preferences built in early life. In this study in India participants were given 'sniff strips' with different smells and asked some questions. Smells were classified as being 'foreign' or 'own culture', and then as familiar or unfamiliar to the participant. It was found that foreign smells were rejected more frequently than 'own culture' smells, with a 78% rejection rate for foreign smells that were unfamiliar.

2

Taking mobile to the max in Asia: Its untapped potential to yield consumer insights into the product experience

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Andrew Steel and David Rao, ESOMAR, Asia Pacific, Jakarta, May 2014

This paper discusses how mobile research can be used in product testing in Asia to provide more reliable insights. View Summary

This paper discusses how mobile research can be used in product testing in Asia to provide more reliable insights. Product testing is an important part of pre-launch research which allows marketers to develop the product's positioning. However, research in China is usually conducted through interviews which ask the respondent to recall product features. Mobile research in this area provides distinct advantages including understanding whether perceptions of a product have changed over time or with use, and providing better discrimination between drivers of performance. Mobile research is also found to have increased respondent engagement, providing more robust feedback.

This paper argues that not only is it possible to conduct market research without asking questions but it's also the best way to understand what people do. View Summary

This paper argues that not only is it possible to conduct market research without asking questions but it's also the best way to understand what people do.

It covers behavioural economics, observational and ethnographic research, social media research and innovative qualitative techniques in order to show the possibilities of research without questions.

It also provides a unifying framework for considering behaviour and decision making, a series of studies conducted across these areas by BrainJuicer and a selection of cases from Allstate Insurance that work with these techniques.

4

Evolving better concepts - How “Survival of the fittest” techniques can be combined with a choice-based consumer interface to deliver better concept scores

Monadic concept testing has become an essential tool in stage gate processes to weed out risky product launches. View Summary

Monadic concept testing has become an essential tool in stage gate processes to weed out risky product launches. As an optimization tool, it suffers from measurement error, poor discrimination, and limited ability to test multiple variations. By comparison, conjoint methods can test many variations but make assumptions that pose challenges (e.g. no interaction between concept elements). Evolutionary optimization can test large concept spaces with high discrimination while accounting for interactions. This paper uses a Mars case study and a meta-analysis that estimates the impact of evolutionary computation on the innovation process – specifically the lift in concept scores across 60 consecutive initiatives with different clients. It finds a significant and positive impact.

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The Measure of All Things: Finding Out That Something Doesn't Work Is the First Step Toward Learning What Does Work

Duncan Watts shares insights from his new book Everything is Obvious, including a recent randomized experiment testing online advertising with 1.6 million Yahoo! users. View Summary

Duncan Watts shares insights from his new book Everything is Obvious, including a recent randomized experiment testing online advertising with 1.6 million Yahoo! users. The researchers estimated that the additional revenue generated by the advertising was roughly four times the cost of the campaign in the short run, and possibly much higher over the long run. But what they also discovered was that almost all the effect was for older consumers—the ads were largely ineffective for people under 40. At first, this latter result seems like bad news. But the right way to think about it is that finding out that something doesn’t work is also the first step toward learning what does work.

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Devil or angel? How the virtual testing environment can affect product evaluations

While new product evaluation testing plays a pivotal role in the NPD process, there is little empirical evidence on the influence of the virtual testing environment on the evaluation results and the data quality. View Summary

While new product evaluation testing plays a pivotal role in the NPD process, there is little empirical evidence on the influence of the virtual testing environment on the evaluation results and the data quality. The present study addresses this gap in the literature by using a split-sample online concept testing-like study to compare the testing results in traditional and virtual environments for five heterogeneous innovations. The findings indicate that both traditional and virtual testing environments yield identical mean scores, while the latter provides higher-quality data given the same sampling design. Early concept or product tests, therefore, may be carried out in a more realistic testing environment using virtual techniques, which could substantially enhance the quality of testing data.

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The Future of Forecasting is Here: Did Simulated Test Markets Evolve As Anticipated ... and What Are the New Expectations?

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Lee Markowitz, ESOMAR, Congress Odyssey, Athens, September 2010

At the 2002 ESOMAR Congress, a paper entitled The Future of Simulated Test Markets (by Joseph Willke, ACNielsen BASES) made predictions about what life would be like in 2010 and the implications for STM models. View Summary

At the 2002 ESOMAR Congress, a paper entitled The Future of Simulated Test Markets (by Joseph Willke, ACNielsen BASES) made predictions about what life would be like in 2010 and the implications for STM models. 2010 is here, and it is the perfect time to re-visit the predictions of 2002 and to develop new ones. The 2010 presentation will identify which predictions came true, which did not, and which were missed, along with the reasons why. The current presentation will explore new forecasting needs that have emerged – based on interviews with market researchers at leading CPG companies – and then make predictions about how forecasting will evolve over the next five years.

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How far can you rely on a concept test: the generalizability of testing over occasions

In practice, product managers have to assume consumer evaluations of concepts generalise from the time (and research environment) of concept testing to the time (and market environment) of market introduction. View Summary

In practice, product managers have to assume consumer evaluations of concepts generalise from the time (and research environment) of concept testing to the time (and market environment) of market introduction. However, little is known about the temporal stability or generalisability of the results of concept testing over occasions. Rarely have concept-testing studies incorporated testing of the same concepts on the same respondents on more than one occasion. This research investigates the importance of occasions as a source of error variance in estimates of the generalisability of concept test scores for both minor and major innovations within the context of Generalisability theory. The study collected concept evaluations of ten innovations from members of an online panel on three occasions, approximately a month apart. The results show that the three-way interaction among subjects, concepts and occasions is a substantial contributor to variation in concept testing of both major and minor innovations, with the contribution for major innovations even more substantial than for minor innovations. Moreover, failure to recognize occasions as an explicit source of variance in the generalisability analyses will lead managers to overestimate the generalisability of their decision studies. However, the impact of neglecting occasions varies by purpose of measurement and associated object of measurement. This research provides insight about how well concept testing can generalise over occasions. Concept test evaluations provided on an initial exposure are more favourable than will be received on any later occasions, and apparent differences in consumer evaluations of a particular concept in an initial test do not provide a generalisable basis for identifying which consumers will respond most favourably to it on a later occasion. For concept testing to be used for targeting or segmentation, more occasions will need to be sampled.

This paper analyzes the main results of the online Product-Test eCMetrics carried out during the first quarter of 2006 to define the colors of Nokia's mobile line. View Summary

This paper analyzes the main results of the online Product-Test eCMetrics carried out during the first quarter of 2006 to define the colors of Nokia's mobile line. The quantitative research study was performed in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela.

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Identifying the influence of product design and usage situation on consumer choice

This paper analyses consumer perceptions with regard to the suitability of products to anticipated usage contexts, as well as their influence on purchase behaviour. View Summary

This paper analyses consumer perceptions with regard to the suitability of products to anticipated usage contexts, as well as their influence on purchase behaviour. Both elements are linked to managerial decisions through product design.To achieve this task two studies are conducted. The first applies correspondence analysis to judgmental data. The second is based on the multinomial logit formulation. Results show that product design explains consumer perceptions about suitability. These perceptions affect purchase behaviour. Implications for key managerial decisions, such as brand extensions in product portfolio management, are presented.This work offers a novel application of the usage situation concept to product and brand management.

11

A fresh approach to concept testing - how to get more research for less time and money

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John Kearon, ESOMAR, Annual Congress, Cannes, September 2005

With large companies committed to organic growth, innovation is once again central to their mission and the need for concept screening and testing greater than ever. View Summary

With large companies committed to organic growth, innovation is once again central to their mission and the need for concept screening and testing greater than ever. These companies face huge budget pressures while maintaining the 'consumer's voice' in the innovation process. A 'Moore's Law' of ever-increasing capability-to-cost in MR remains an unobtainable dream of client-side research directors. Why not mix the latest online technology with creativity and challenging orthodoxies, and invent ways to test more concepts, with more consumers, without compromising quality, with less time and money than current approaches?

12

Improving consumer fragrance testing

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Ivor Shalofsky, ESOMAR, Fragrances Conference, New York, May 2005

This paper discusses the prevalence of sniff-testing in the fragrance industry, and suggests that the over-use of this methodology, in place of home-use testing, often prevents clients from receiving the superior fragrances that they are expecting from fragrance houses. View Summary

This paper discusses the prevalence of sniff-testing in the fragrance industry, and suggests that the over-use of this methodology, in place of home-use testing, often prevents clients from receiving the superior fragrances that they are expecting from fragrance houses. Comparisons are made between sniff test and home-use test results, showing that the two methods can sometimes produce quite different conclusions. It is recommended that, despite the higher investment necessary, the Industry should use home-use tests more, and sniff tests less, in particular when the specific research objective is to accurately identify a winning fragrance.

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Reading between the lines: what else you can get out of quantative fragrance trials

Many market research agencies, fragrance houses and client companies conduct product tests to assess the suitability of fragrances for particular uses. View Summary

Many market research agencies, fragrance houses and client companies conduct product tests to assess the suitability of fragrances for particular uses. In most cases, the prime objective is to ascertain which of a range of fragrances is the best for a particular brand or product. This paper is about using a set of well tried statistical methods to gain a much deeper understanding of the market the product is tested in, the disparate views on products and ultimately how to adapt a fragrance for particular purposes. The paper is based on the results of hundreds of in-use tests in scores of countries around the world. The aim of this work is to improve the quality of feedback from product tests among consumers by focussing effort to try and better understand: the perceptions of respondents who have tested the stimuli samples; and the contexts in which the tests have been carried out such as brand, other product use and respondent profile.

14

Colour and fragrance

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K.J. Stanton, ESOMAR, Fragrance Conference, Lausanne, March 2003

This study set out to establish the optimal colour and fragrance mix for a portfolio of male deodorant fragrances and to identify fragrance opportunities. View Summary

This study set out to establish the optimal colour and fragrance mix for a portfolio of male deodorant fragrances and to identify fragrance opportunities. The aim was to enroll consumers to understand appeal of fragrances as well as the role of pack colour in influencing appeal. The results indicated that the existing range had some superfluous variants and that there was potential to streamline the range. In addition, a new fragrance and pack colour were identified as having potential for incremental sales. The new variant was subsequently launched and has achieved great success.

15

Evaluating new fragrances in a new way: a means for identifying future winners

Nowadays it is becoming more and more difficult to develop new fragrances outdoing existing ones in terms of consumer acceptance. View Summary

Nowadays it is becoming more and more difficult to develop new fragrances outdoing existing ones in terms of consumer acceptance. Developing testing methods able to identify opportunities for successful new fragrances appears as an essential challenge for the industry. This paper deals with the measurement of the newness of a fragrance in a two-dimensional way instead of the unique dimension usually considered. We consider both the mere perception of newness per se, and the comprehension of newness. Our data analyses confirm the two-dimensionality of newness in the fragrance domain. This two-dimensionality in the newness construct is validated by a differential effect of the two dimensions on fragrance and product liking.

16

Talking the same language: development of a common language between customers, perfumers, and marketers through qualitative and quantative perfume engineering

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Pedro Zaragoza, ESOMAR, Fragrance Conference, Lausanne, March 2003

The intention of this paper is to explain a new qualitative and quantitative methodology developed eight years ago and applied in different FMCG markets: detergents, fabric conditioners, and household cleansers in several West European countries, enabling better understanding of what “represents” an existing or new fragrance/perfume to the corresponding target (the customers) and how it is ‘decoded’. View Summary

The intention of this paper is to explain a new qualitative and quantitative methodology developed eight years ago and applied in different FMCG markets: detergents, fabric conditioners, and household cleansers in several West European countries, enabling better understanding of what “represents” an existing or new fragrance/perfume to the corresponding target (the customers) and how it is ‘decoded’. The added value of this approach arises from the visual representation (perceptual maps) of the fragrance decoding and the customers’ expectations. This methodology and the type of results reached by this tool clearly allow marketers and perfumers to share the same grid of analysis, to use the same language and thus to better integrate the fragrance in the whole marketing strategic analysis.

17

The use of 'respondent-based intelligent' surveys in cross-national research

This paper describes the methodological evolution of Ford Motor Company's product quality research in Latin America. It begins with the exporting of the North American model to Latin America. Critical biases and methodological distortions associated with the use of this approach are identified and illustrated. We then explain how customer-driven 'needs' and 'wants' of the local market led to the design and implementation of 'Respondent-Based Intelligent' Surveys for Latin America. Ford Motor Company's 'Customer Driven' Six Sigma Methodology generated much of the impetus for this approach. The outcome was highly accurate and actionable market research.

18

The Impact of Consumers' Commitment to Existing Brands on Product Launch Strategies

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Jan Hofmeyr and John Rice, ESOMAR, Marketing Research Congress, Paris, September 1999

Traditional new product tests focus more on consumers' responses to the new product than on their commitment to existing brands. View Summary

Traditional new product tests focus more on consumers' responses to the new product than on their commitment to existing brands. This is one reason why many traditional methods have had to contend with varying degrees of over-claim.This paper has two purposes: first, to show how the inclusion of a measure of commitment in new product testing helps to deal with the problem of over-claim. Second and more importantly, this paper shows how an understanding of how commitment works should help with the development of strategy for new product launches.

19

Learning from failures in predicting new design acceptance

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Wulf Schlund, ESOMAR, Power of Knowledge Congress, Berlin September 1998

In the market under consideration, research is not as old as in other markets. A number of companies have not yet given up the practice of judgmental forecasting the market performance of new designs. View Summary

In the market under consideration, research is not as old as in other markets. A number of companies have not yet given up the practice of judgmental forecasting the market performance of new designs. Therefore we investigated the failures of judgmental forecasting on two levels: compared with consumer tests; and subsequently with real market performance. Traditional testing of new designs was investigated concerning two sources of potential failure: positive test results, but poor market performance; and poor test results, but remarkable market performance.Later a more sophisticated test technique was compared with traditional testing. Despite improvements, we did not stop investigating potential failures here.Learning from the systematic investigation of the described failures we have developed a test system which works in different steps and is much more effective than any previous forecasting procedures.

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Visual Language as an Integrated, Multicultural Medium for Product Design and Testing: How to Optimise the Product-Consumer-Researcher-Client Relationship.

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Clara Origlia, ESOMAR, Product Engineering, February 1995

Visual language has become an invaluable integrated-multicultural communication medium between consumer and product, consumer and researcher, researcher and research user and research user and consumer. View Summary

Visual language has become an invaluable integrated-multicultural communication medium between consumer and product, consumer and researcher, researcher and research user and research user and consumer. It is also a powerful aid for product design and testing.The 'verbal only' type of communication presents problems and limitations. The progressive internationalization of research, marketing and communication has created new challenges.Numerous examples from case studies will be given during this presentation to show how effectively visual language and verbal language work together during the research process, in analysing the findings, and their reporting to the research users. Interactive research techniques that use visual methods are the best equipped to optimise the whole research process, avoid cultural traps and communication gaps and facilitate dialogue and understanding at all stages.

Accurately to reflect market activity, product testing procedures must be based upon a clear understanding of consumer behaviour. View Summary

Accurately to reflect market activity, product testing procedures must be based upon a clear understanding of consumer behaviour. This paper reviews those areas of consumer behaviour that impinge upon product testing and considers implications for more effective designs. By drawing predominantly upon a model of consumers interpreting products as arrays of cues, we evaluate a company's approach to product testing and consider how better testing procedures could be developed.

This paper won the 1968 MRS Gold Medal, and describes and illustrates discrimination testing (ensuring that a change in product formulation, e.g. View Summary

This paper won the 1968 MRS Gold Medal, and describes and illustrates discrimination testing (ensuring that a change in product formulation, e.g. to use cheaper raw materials, is indistinguishable from the current formulation to brand users). The test was used on large samples of ordinary users. The method used was triangular testing: each tester is given three samples, two of which are identical, and asked to pick out the one that is different. In the first test, 40% correctly chose the odd one out, significantly more than guesswork would give (33%). The proportion who can discriminate is 40-33 divided by .67 (the proportion available after eliminating the correct guessers), i.e. 10%. (the sample size had been set to desired confidence limits). Three further triangular tests tested respectively 50/50, 75/25 and 67/33 mixtures of the new ingredient, all against the original formula. The 50/50 version was identified (above guesswork) by no-one. The other two failed to reduce the discrimination below 7%. It was decided to adopt the 50/50 mixture. The paper goes on to discuss another series of more complex tests, in which testers were asked to choose between more alternatives. This enables samples to be reduced, but introduces other sensitivities. Concerns about effects of artificiality and complexity in biasing test results (discussed) led to the same product being tested `real-life' (a split sample using normally and re-interviewed later). Could they distinguish the sample from what they normally bought? Results (confirmed in a replicated study) showed little discrimination. A further test in which respondents were told that they would be re-interviewed about the product increased discrimination, confirming that an artificial test format does bias answers. Triangular testers who could not discriminate unexpectedly had similar preferences to those who could. Possible explanations for this anomalous result are discussed.

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Test Marketing: an examination of sales patterns found in 44 recent tests

In this paper, which won the 1966 MRS Gold Medal, 44 test market results were analysed to see if general patterns in the sales curves could be found. View Summary

In this paper, which won the 1966 MRS Gold Medal, 44 test market results were analysed to see if general patterns in the sales curves could be found. All the cases came from retail audit data from continuous test panels of stores. Two thirds were grocery products, the remainder from chemist panels. Distribution in the chemists is typically much higher than among the grocers. The distribution curve (proportion of stores handling) reaches its shoulder for most products by the third 4-weekly check, after which the increase slows. At this shoulder, on average, 80% of chemists were handling products but only 35% of grocers. Build-up of consumer purchases was analysed in three ways: build up to peak sales; run-down from peak sales to stable level and the ratio between peak sales and the stable level. This is calculated as peak sales minus stable sales divided by peak sales (the D ratio). The average drop is about 40% from peak level. It is concluded that a brand launch will fail to meet its long-term (stable) target unless it achieves at least twice that target level at some point in its early life. The sample is too small and the test periods studies mostly too short to generalise about the consistency of these D ratios (or Drop factors). However, a test market product from the BMRB archives, which had very varied peak and stable sales levels between eight areas, was reanalysed to calculate D ratios. These were found to group much more tightly (range between .63 and .74) than the sales levels, suggesting that D may be a useful statistic for predicting test markets.