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Oil Prices – Weekly Recap March 11-15

March 16, 2013

Crude oil price rose again during last week. The U.S stockpiles slightly declined according to the latest EIA report. The difference between Brent and WTI has contracted again to a range between $15 and $18 during last week. The price of WTI oil increased by 1.6% during the week; Brent oil declined by 1.3%. As a result, the gap between Brent and WTI reached $15.93/b on Friday. OPEC’s oil production remained virtually unchanged. The IEA revised down its expected growth in global demand for oil. Global supply inched up during last month.

Here is a short analysis for the rate changes in oil prices (Brent and WTI) between March 11th and March 15th and a summary of the latest EIA review on petroleum and oil stockpiles and OPEC monthly update:

Oil Market – Weekly Summary

NYMEX Oil Future (WTI) increased again during last week by 1.63%; its weekly averagerate increased by 1.92%; it reached average$92.72 per barrel, compared with last week’s $90.98 per barrel. The average daily percent shifts of oil price (WTI) were 0.32%.

Europe Brent oil, on the other hand, decreased during the week by 1.33%, and the average price decreased by 1.36% compared with last week’s average.

The difference between Brent and WTI was at the range between $15 and $18 during the week; its average premium reached $16.72; it finished the week at $15.93.

Oil Charts

In the following charts (for the week ending on March 15th) are the daily shifts in NYMEX WTI future (short term delivery) and Brent oil:

The first chart shows the changes of WTI and Brent oil during last week: WTI oil rose while Brent oil slightly decreased during the week.

In the second chart are the daily percent shifts (i.e. changes around the trend) of oil prices (WTI and Brent):

Oil Stockpiles –Review:

For the week ending on March 8th, U.S.Petroleum and crude oil stockpiles decreased again by 5.6 million barrels and reached 1,776.7 million barrels. The current oil stockpiles are still higher than the quota from year: the current crude oil stockpiles are 27.2 million barrels higher oil stockpiles compared to the same week in 2012.

Conversely, U.S. Ending Stocks of crude oil rose again by 2.6 million barrels and reached 1,079.9 million barrels. The U.S. Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline declined by 1.57% compared with last week’s stocks; it reached 224.3 million barrels.

During recent years the lagged linear correlation between WTI oil price and current oil stockpiles reached -0.19. This mid-weak correlation suggests, assuming all things being equal, the rates of oil may increase again next week.