Will South China Sea dispute arbitration bring peace to the region?

A man rides a motorcycle past a poster promoting Vietnam’ sovereignty in the East Sea (South China Sea) on Phu Quoc island

To this question the Philippines gives a positive answer. In its report today Reuters quotes the Vietnamese Foreign Ministry as saying, “The Vietnamese position is helpful in terms of promoting the rule of law and in finding peaceful and nonviolent solutions to the South China Sea claims based on international law.”

I wonder, since China refuses to take part in the arbitration and clearly declared its position not to accept the arbitration award, what can the Philippines do to enforce the award without resorting to force? Can Vietnamese support enable the Philippines to enforce the award peacefully?

Therefore, I said in my post “China Publishes Position Paper against South Sea Dispute Arbitration” on December 8, the arbitration award in favour of the Philippines “will intensify the tension between China and the Philippines.” The tension will only aggravate if Vietnam supports the Philippines in enforcing the award.

The Philippines is certainly happy that it has the support from Vietnam, but that has nothing to do with peace

However, the Diplomat’s article by Prashanth Parameswaran on December 12 says, “By lodging a statement with the court – as opposed to directly joining the Philippines in its case – Vietnam has found a way to make its views heard but not alienate Beijing, which has warned Hanoi against joining Manila’s legal challenge.”

If that is the case, there is some problem in the title of Reuters report “Vietnam’s sea dispute arbitration case vs China promotes peace: Manila”. Since Vietnam only submit a statement of its position to the arbitration court but does not join the Philippines in the case, there is no “Vietnam’s sea dispute arbitration case vs China.”

This shows that Vietnamese support for the Philippines will not be substantial as Vietnam wants to maintain good relations with China to keep the economic benefits it gets from the relations.

Vietnam has helped ensure peace in the South China Sea dispute with Beijing by following the Philippines in seeking U.N. arbitration, Manila said, despite the fact that Beijing has refused to take part.

Beijing claims almost the entire energy-rich South China Sea but Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan also have claims. Only Brunei has not occupied and garrisoned territory in the potential flashpoint in the region.

Vietnam on Thursday submitted its position to a UN arbitration tribunal initiated by the Philippines over the festering dispute. China called on Vietnam to respect its sovereignty and has refused UN arbitration.

“The Vietnamese position is helpful in terms of promoting the rule of law and in finding peaceful and nonviolent solutions to the South China Sea claims based on international law,” the Philippine Foreign Ministry said.

“…This promotes peace and stability in our region.”

China, Vietnam and the Philippines are signatories to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, an international agreement that grants the right to explore and exploit resources within 200 nautical miles of a state’s shore. Both Hanoi and Manila say Beijing is extending beyond the limit.

In May, China placed its largest mobile oil rig close to Vietnam’s coast in the Paracel islands that prompted angry protests in Hanoi against Chinese business interests. At the same time, Beijing began reclamation in the Spratly islands and appeared to be building airstrips in the area.

Beijing has also seized control of Scarborough Shoal near the Philippines’ main island of Luzon and chased civilian ships delivering supplies to Philippine-held Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratlys.

The Philippines and Vietnam appear to be ending decades of distrust. Last year, the two sides held a first-ever navy-to-navy talks and last month, Hanoi displayed its two most powerful missile-guided stealth frigates in Manila during a port call. The two states will hold the first strategic defence dialogue early next year.

“Vietnam’s legal opinion puts political weight on the Philippine legal case,” Professor Rommel Banlaoi, a security analyst, said on television.

“What Vietnam did was in fact supporting, reaffirming and even rallying behind the Philippine legal action and that’s good for our national interest.”

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About chankaiyee2

Author of the book "Tiananmen's Tremendous Achievements" about how with the help of Tiananmen Protests, talented scholars with moral integrity seized power in the Party and state and brought prosperity to China.
The second edition of the book will be published within a few days to mark the 25th anniversary of Tiananmen Protests
All the parts in the first edition remain in the second edition with a few changes due to information available later and better understanding. There are also some changes for improvements of style.
The new parts are Chapters 12-19 on events in China after the first edition was published: The fierce power struggle for succession between reformists and conservatives; Xi Jinping winning all elders’ support during his mysterious disappearance for 2 weeks in early September, 2012; and Xi Jinping Cyclone.
Chan Kai Yee's new book:
SPACE ERA STRATEGY: The Way China Beats The US
An eye-opening book that tells the truth how the US is losing to China.
The US is losing as it adopts the outdated strategy of Air-Sea Battle while China adopts the space era strategy to pursue integrated space and air capabilities:
It is losing due to its diplomacy that has given rise to Russian-Chinese alliance.
US outdated strategy has enabled China to catch up and surpass the US in key weapons:
Hypersonic weapons (HGV) that Pentagon regards as the weapon that will dominate the world in the future.
Aerospaceplane in China’s development of space-air bomber that can engage enemy anywhere in the world within an hour and destroy an entire aircraft carrier battle group within minutes.
Anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, anti-ASAT weapons, stealth aircrafts, drones, AEW&C, etc. The book gives detailed descriptions of China’s weapon development based on information mainly from Chinese sources that the author monitors closely.
U.S. Must Not Be Beaten by China!
China is not a democracy. Its political system cannot prevent the emergence of a despotic leader or stop such a leader when he begins to bring disasters to people. A few decades ago, Mao Zedong, the worst tyrant in world history did emerge and bring disasters to Chinese people. He wanted to fight a nuclear war to replace capitalism with communism but could not bring nuclear holocaust to world people as China was too weak and poor at that time.
If a despot like Mao Zedong emerges when China has surpassed the US in military strength, world people will suffer the misery experienced by Chinese people in Mao era.
China surpassing the US in GDP is not something to worry about as China has the heavy burden to satisfy its huge population, but China surpassing the US in military strength will be world people’s greatest concern if China remains an autocracy.
US people are of much better quality than Chinese people. What they lack is a wise leader to adopt the correct strategy and diplomacy and the creative ways to use its resources in developing its military capabilities. I hope that with the emergence of a great leader, the US can put an end to its decline and remain number one in the world.
China, US, space era strategy, air-sea battle, space-air bomber, arms race, weapon development, chan kai yee

Discussion

Chinese leaders and Chinese citizens who entered school after 1947, the year the 9-dashed line map
was drawn, have been taught that China has historical rights to the South China Sea. This is of course false and
merely constitutes state propaganda, but unfortunately the Chinese people now believe in this propaganda as
“historical facts.”
There are, of course, Chinese scholars who realize that China’s 9-dashed line claim cannot stand impartial
scrutiny based on actual historical facts. Professor Jin Canrong of Renmin University in Beijing, who attended
the Shangri-La Regional Security Forum in Singapore, said that China should be given more time to clarify its
9-dashed line claim because if it clarifies its claim now, it will face domestic political pressure. Prof. Jin said, “Give
China some time, it will change its stance in the future.”

Will it bring peace? No one knows. Much depends on the outcome of the arbitration. If the Tribunal accepts jurisdiction and invalidates China’s infamous Nine-(or is it now ten?) dash line claim, then despite Its posturing, China will either have to become more conciliatory, or more confrontational. China will be under considerable international pressure to conform to the ruling of the Tribunal, even though China has rejected the Tribunal’s jurisdiction. China’s self-described “peaceful rise” will be put to the test. If, on the other hand, the Tribunal
either does not accept jurisdiction, or refuses to invalidate the Nine-dash line claim, then a chaotic free-for-all will ensue in the South China Sea. There may well be skirmishes and military clashes over territory.