POLITICO London Playbook, presented by Long Live The Local: Brexit phony war — Big day for Barnier — Clunking fist returns

DRIVING THE DAY

PHONY WAR: Theresa May faces her first prime minister’s questions since conference season today with the Tory Brexiteers still throwing daily punches at her leadership. The Guardian confirms yesterday’s broadsides from David Davis and Mark Harper were part of a “carefully calibrated” grid of attacks by Tory MPs designed to knock her off course. She will be wary of further interventions from her backbenchers at PMQs today, with one Tory Brexiteer telling Heather Stewart and Pippa Crerar: “There is more to come.” Jeremy Corbyn may also choose to use his six questions to poke away at the gaping splits on the Tory benches … May will need to be convincing in her responses to keep her party on side.

Silence is golden: Both No. 10 and Brussels have concluded, probably rightly, that the best way of making progress in this crucial final stage of the negotiations is to say as little in public as possible — and so it seems there is little prospect of either side saying much new on their Brexit positions this week. Downing Street had been expected to publish proposals for regulatory checks between Britain and Northern Ireland, but officials now indicate the plan will only be made public once a deal has effectively been done behind the scenes. That means the big crunch point may now come at next Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting, when the PM will hope to present her senior ministers with something close to a fait accomplis.

What the Cabinet is worrying about: The fear among Euroskeptic ministers is they will be bounced into accepting an unsatisfactory Brexit deal next Tuesday, given the meeting comes just 24 hours before the PM flies to Brussels to meet her EU27 counterparts. A worried Cabinet source asks the Times’ Sam Coates: “Will they ‘do a Chequers’ and say — Back it or f*** off?” Playbook suggests the answer is almost certainly yes. Both Coates and Channel 4’s Gary Gibbon — in this useful blog — also pick over which members of the Cabinet might resign if they don’t like what they see next week. For what it’s worth, allies of Penny Mordaunt tell Playbook she would much rather have a “seat at the table” and make the case for a better deal from inside the room than walk out and shout from the sidelines.

What the Brits are arguing about: POLITICO’s Tom McTague and Charlie Cooper have pulled together a useful piece on the five biggest obstacles that still lie in the way of a Brexit deal.

And then on to Brussels: Downing Street has not yet confirmed May’s travel plans for next week’s crunch summit, with the precise agenda still in some state of flux. However the expectation among officials seems to be that May will probably travel to Brussels on Wednesday afternoon and make some sort of Brexit pitch to the EU27 leaders ahead of their big Brexit dinner (from which she will probably be excluded) on Wednesday night. The Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn has a similar take here.

And then the big vote: Once a deal has been agreed — probably at a second summit in mid-November — then it’s all back to parly for the most important Commons vote of our times. And there’s plenty to cheer about for government whips in the papers today, with the Times’ Oliver Wright and the FT’s Jim Pickard both reporting up to 30 Labour MPs are ready to defy Jeremy Corbyn and back the government’s deal. For the whips’ office, this has always been a simple numbers game — get the number of Tory rebels down far enough, the number of Labour rebels up high enough, and the deal will be approved. If these kinds of Labour numbers prove accurate, the PM will fancy her chances of winning the day.

Today in Brexit committees: The head of the National Audit Office, Amyas Morse, gives evidence to the Commons Brexit committee at 9.15 a.m. … City Minister John Glen is before the Lords EU financial affairs committee at 10 a.m. … Brexit Ministers Robin Walker and Suella Braverman are before the Commons procedure committee at 2.45 p.m. … and lobbying groups representing the haulage, pharmaceutical and retail industries give evidence to the Commons Brexit committee at 3 p.m.

And now for the baaaaaad news: Whitehall officials are secretly discussing whether the mass slaughter of sheep may be required if ports become log-jammed in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the Times’ Sam Coates reports. “The Times understands that some officials are concerned about the issue of animals, predominantly sheep, that cross the Channel from the U.K. to be taken to slaughterhouses,” he writes. A source tells him: “The thing worrying some in No. 10 is … whether we would need to have mass slaughter of such animals en route to slaughterhouses in the EU. It’s the kind of thing they think unlikely — but they also know the consequence for failing to plan would be terrible.”

**A message from Long Live The Local: Three pubs a day close their doors for good. Our locals are under a range of tax pressures and Long Live The Local is rallying the nation to ask the Chancellor to cut beer tax on October 29. Find out more and sign the petition at www.longlivethelocal.pub.**

MEANWHILE IN BRUSSELS

BIG DAY FOR BARNIER: The EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier will make a speech in Brussels this afternoon at an event organized by business group Eurochambres. (Read the agenda here.) All the signs are the EU is now desperately trying not to say anything over the next seven days that might scupper the expected deal, with officials having been ordered to go “into the tunnel” and reveal nothing about how things are progressing. Barnier will therefore presumably be doing his best not to create news today — but his every word will be pored over here in the U.K. nonetheless. He’s due to speak at 3.30 p.m. U.K. time … There should be a livestream here.

Meetings in flux: Earlier in the day Barnier will address a private meeting of EU commissioners, at which he had been expected to present a draft text on the future EU-U.K. relationship. (See the original agenda here.) But sources in Brussels suggest that presentation will no longer happen — and nor will the document be published later today, as had been expected. All will be revealed (yeah, right) in a post-meeting press conference at 10.30 a.m. U.K. time, during a read-out of what was discussed. It should be livestreamed here. A POLITICO colleague in Brussels emails to say EU diplomats now expect to see “at least a hint” of the document at a meeting of EU27 ambassadors on Friday.

Breaking up is hard to do: Britain’s insistence on playing a full role in EU affairs right up until the very last minute of its departure has left other EU countries a little bemused, POLITICO’s Jacopo Barigazzi and David Herszenhorn report today. “Some EU diplomats said their British counterparts, oddly, now often seem more engaged than they were prior to the Brexit referendum,” they write. One tells them: “We’re working very well with them. They actually seem sometimes more committed than before.”

With or without EU: Ageing rocker Bono is also in Brussels today — goodness knows why — and will hold talks with senior figures including European Council President Donald Tusk and European Parliament President Antonio Tajani.

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

ECONOMY STATS: Get ready for a ton of data at 9.30 a.m., including the first U.K. GDP estimate for August plus stats on construction, trade, services and other key indicators.

INCOMING: The great clunking fist of Gordon Brown re-enters the fray of domestic politics today with a warning for the Conservatives about the next big car crash headed their way. The new Universal Credit welfare system is due to be rolled out in full next year, and millions of hard-pressed families are going to find themselves an awful lot worse off. In a speech in Edinburgh tonight, Brown will warn of “poll tax-style chaos, in a summer of discontent” next year. Writing in the Daily Mirror, Brown urges the government to “abandon” the “cruel and ­vindictive” project. The Guardian splashes on a preview of his speech.

NEVER RAINS BUT IT POURS: On a tough day for Whitehall’s most dysfunctional department, Sky News reports a three-year study into the controversial use of sanctions against welfare claimants was slipped out by the DWP just before recess, with no ministerial comment. It found there is “no evidence” that benefit sanctions “helped motivate participants to progress in work” — which was kind of the whole point of the policy. In fact, the report says in some cases sanctions were counterproductive and “damaged the relationship between the work coach and the claimant.” Expect Labour to be kicking off about this today.

SERIOUS BUSINESS: It’s World Mental Health Day and Theresa May marks the occasion by unveiling the U.K.’s first minister for suicide prevention — although it’s actually just an extension of duties for the current minister for mental health, Jackie Doyle-Price. She will lead a taskforce to reduce the number of suicides in Britain — currently almost 90 deaths per week. There’s also a small dollop of cash for the Samaritans and the promise of annual checks on young people’s mental wellbeing — a pledge that makes the front pages of the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph. Health Secretary Matt Hancock will host a mental health conference today featuring ministers from 50-odd countries, and also has a broadcast round this morning.

19 DAYS TO GO: The budget is two and a half weeks away, and the Daily Mail coverage thus far encapsulates Philip Hammond’s problem. He knows he must raise taxes somewhere to help pay for a £20-billion NHS cash boost he never wanted in the first place … but every idea floated will be torn to shreds by his opponents on the Tory right. The Treasury is playing down reports of a raid on pension relief, and so it is the suggestion that Hammond may instead abandon the Tory manifesto pledge to raise income tax thresholds that gets the full Mail “rage” treatment today. And this Treasury source quote won’t help one bit: “Everything is on the table now,” the source tells Political Editor Jason Groves. “If you are looking for guidance on tax policy, I would not look to the manifesto.” Yikes.

HELL FREEZES OVER UPDATE: The Daily Telegraph — yes, the Daily Telegraph — is today calling for a “debate” on legalizing cannabis. The paper splashes on a review by the Royal College of Psychiatrists on whether weed should still be banned, and then in its main leader (not yet online) suggests decriminalization is happening by default in some areas — and that it may therefore be time to make it official. Playbook is still picking its jaw up off the floor.

COMMITTEE CORRIDOR: Former Chief Inspector of Prisons Nick Hardwick discusses prisoner numbers before the Commons justice committee at 10 a.m. … Musicians Ben Lovett of Mumford and Sons and rapper ShaoDow discuss live music licensing before the Commons culture committee at 2.30 p.m. … Senior police officers, Home Office officials and the Chief Inspector of Constabulary Tom Winsor discuss police funding before the Commons home affairs committee, also at 2.30 p.m. … and Commons leader Andrea Leadsom discusses the restoration of the Palace of Westminster before the Commons finance committee at 3 p.m.

ON THE MARCH: Plenty of marches happening in SW1 today, kicking off with more than 100 army personnel marching in for a “welcome home” reception on the terrace, courtesy of Tory MP James Gray … Then at noon, large numbers of campaigners attacking women’s pension reforms will gather in Hyde Park before marching on Parliament Square this afternoon … And Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell will be among a cross-party group of MPs hosting a “Save our Schools” protest on the square featuring children from across England.

TERROR INQUEST: The bodyguard who shot dead Westminster terrorist Khalid Masood last year will give evidence — anonymously — at the inquest into his death today.

NEW WATCHDOG:The Sun’s Matt Dathan reports Labour MP Kate Green will be the new chairwoman of the Commons standards committee, which acts as a watchdog for misbehaving MPs. It follows the resignation of the long-serving Kevin Barron.

GET SHORTY: The army is investigating after a gaggle of new recruits posed for photos with far-right activist Stephen Yaxley-Lennon — also known as Tommy Robinson. Sky News has the story.

TIME TO MOVE ON: A cross-party group of politicians — including four former Northern Ireland secretaries — have urged current post-holder Karen Bradley to abandon “costly investigations” into Troubles-era deaths. In an open letter published by the Belfast Telegraph and the Daily Telegraph, they warn that “on past evidence” historical inquiries “would not deliver justice for victims.”

TERROR REPORT: The Home Office will today publish the annual report by the government’s independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, Max Hill. It will cover 2017, a year when Britain was hit by four serious terror attacks.

ALSO OUT TODAY: A big APPG report on brain injuries and how better treatment could save the NHS billions of pounds per year. Labour MP Chris Bryant will launch it at lunchtime.

HAVING A MAYOR: Tory mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey’s campaign is off to a rocky start. Last night BuzzFeed’s Alex Wickham unearthed a pamphlet he wrote in 2005 describing how “good looking” girls in his local area “tend to have been around,” and how “poor people” require “rules” and “direction” or else they turn to crime.

CARBON TAX: Labour and Tory grandees Alistair Darling and Michael Howard join forces at a Policy Exchange event today to demand a carbon tax to fight climate change. The Guardian has a preview.

GAY CAKE LATEST: Not really sure if this is politics, but the Supreme Court will rule this morning on the notorious “gay cake” case, in which a bakery in Belfast refused to decorate a cake with the slogan “Support Gay Marriage.” ITV has a preview. The judgement is due around 9.45 a.m.

**A message from Long Live The Local: The United Kingdom pays one of the highest Beer Duty rates in Europe. In fact, beer duty in the U.K. is three times higher than the EU average and 12 times higher than some individual countries. The result of this is that we pay 40 percent of the Beer Duty in Europe, whilst drinking only 12 percent of the beer. Other leading brewing nations, such as Germany and Belgium, have worked to protect their industries and have far lower beer duty rates than the U.K. Similarly, other countries have invested in the pub, brewing and wider hospitality sectors by reducing various taxes to ensure the industries thrive. Currently three pubs a day close their doors for good. Find out more and sign the petition at www.longlivethelocal.pub.**

On the Continent: Read what the rest of Europe’s papers are saying in POLITICO’s EU press review blog here (updated daily at around 8 a.m.).

BEYOND THE M25

From Istanbul

SAUDI HIT SQUAD LATEST: Turkish officials have concluded missing journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered by a hit squad of Saudi government agents inside the consulate in Turkey and then dismembered with a saw, the New York Times reports this morning. “It is like Pulp Fiction” a Turkish official says. The Washington Post has a blow-by-blow account of how 15 Saudi men flew in from Riyadh on the morning Khashoggi disappeared and drove to the consulate where he was last seen. At the end of the day, they all left the country on flights headed for Dubai and Cairo.

NOW READ THIS: Late last night a Turkish paper, the Daily Sabah, published names and photos of the 15 men and — quoting Turkish officials — said they are members of the Saudi government and security services. One is said to work in forensic evidence at the Saudi General Security Department … in other words, an expert on autopsies. Just read this extraordinary Twitter thread.

From D.C.

NOT ME: Donald Trump’s daughter Ivanka announced last night she will not be the next U.S. ambassador to the U.N. following the shock resignation of Nikki Haley. Here’s the tweet. POLITICO’s Ben White reports the early frontrunner for the job is now Dina Powell, a Goldman Sachs executive who has already worked in the Trump White House as deputy national security adviser. Washington is awash with rumors about the reasons for — and timing of — Haley’s departure. The Guardian’s Julian Borger points out her resignation letter was written the day after Trump publicly attacked sexual abuse victim Christine Blasey Ford … But POLITICO’s Eliana Johnson reports sources close to Haley say she wanted to leave on her own terms, with her stock still high.

SPICE WORLD

SPOTTED: At the Kennington Tandoori last night, where Playbook felt contractually obliged to swing by and check out the new menu after banging on about it all week, were … Former Chancellor Ken Clarke, obviously, dining happily alone with a magazine for company but getting regularly interrupted by thrilled politicos … and Shadow Health Secretary Jon Ashworth, collecting a takeaway.

And since you ask: The KT menu has indeed gone right upmarket, and is all the better for it. Playbook can heartily recommend the salmon with Bengali mustard and dill, the sigri paneer with carom seeds and coconut, and the Kashmiri Kentish lamb rogan josh. And yes I paid for it myself, you bunch of cynics.

Spotted just up the road: In Cafe Ishaq, another Kennington curry house, were …. Tory Party Chairman Brandon Lewis, Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns, Business Minister Kelly Tolhurst and government Whip Amanda Milling dining at a table for four … Tuesday night really is curry night in SW1.

Curry diplomacy: An email arrives from retired U.S. diplomat Jonathan Muller, inspired by memories of those early-80s curry houses like the original KT. “When I joined the foreign service in 1983, there were two Indian restaurants in metro Washington,” he recalls. “One in suburban Arlington, and another on M Street in the heart of Georgetown (which had a legendary Sikh doorman — big, fat, and turbaned). Once a group from my entering class went to the Georgetown one, with two Russian diplomats that someone had met somewhere. When we were ordering our food, one of them was eyeing the hottest dish on the menu — Lamb Malabar if memory serves — debating whether it might be too hot. I said, ‘Oh, I’ve had it. It’s not so bad.'”

Gulp: “This was not true. I knew it was three-flamethrower, but it was enough to get him to order it. From the first bite, it was clear he could not eat it. I spent half the meal reveling in it, then took pity and swapped my food for his. How we cherished such small victories in the Cold War … After the Soviets shot down KAL007, we were ordered to break contact with those Russians for good.”

Final word: A prominent journo on a national paper is also inspired to write in, though sounds unimpressed by the KT’s plan for a referendum on its own korma recipe. “What self-respecting curry house promotes its korma?” he asks. “A mate of mine once ordered a korma down Rusholme [Manchester’s famous “curry mile”]. It arrived with the waiter saying to him: ‘And a plate of baby sick for you.’ If the power-brokers are all tucking into kormas, no wonder this country is on the verge of being f****d.”

LONDON CALLING

Westminster weather:⛅️☀️😎 A real, actual summer’s day. And possibly the last of 2018. Morning cloud should give way to an afternoon of glorious sunshine, with unseasonable highs of 23C. Be brave and leave the coat at home.

London Uber drivers: Remain on strike until 1 p.m. Well, some of them.

Other travel: Severe delays on the London Overground between Clapham Junction and Surrey Quays and on Southern railways. More details here.

And also spotted: At last night’s dinner at the Garrick for the Anthony Howard Award for Young Journalists, a scheme set up in 2013 that has provided the lobby with a regular pipeline of brilliant young political hacks ever since. Founder Michael Heseltine was the guest speaker, telling those present that he is almost unique among today’s political class in that he likes and respects journalists for the work they do. Also spotted were all five previous winners — Lucy Fisher, Henry Zeffman and Dulcie Lee of the Times, Ash Cowburn of the Indy and Patrick Maguire of the New Statesman — plus Maguire’s editor, Jason Cowley … Times colleague Sam Coates … Former Channel 4 boss Jeremy Isaacs … Former Observer executive Stephen Pritchard … and several more.

New starts: TalkRADIO’s Political Editor Ross Kempsell has landed a second gig as political columnist with GQ magazine. He follows in the footsteps of fellow Guido alumni Alex Wickham, who was a GQ columnist before joining BuzzFeed.