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The Fix Picks the NFL: Week 1

Adrian Peterson is questionable, Jason Witten’s spleen is lacerated, Jets fans are exasperated and yet it is somehow only Week 1 in the NFL. But while everything seems to be happening earlier and earlier in the NFL — the annual, hilarious calls for Tom Coughlin’s firing may arrive before October does — it’s worth noting that the Daily Fix NFL Picks are right on time. I have already been wrong in my belief in the Giants, and I have already talked myself into a host of unlikely scenarios about which I’m poignantly certain. To go into these would be unfair, at this point, although I suppose no one would be hurt if I offered “Luke McCown, Most Valuable Player” as a bit of free wisdom.

As you may recall from previous years, your Fixers will offer their predictions against the spread every Friday. You should not bet money on these predictions, because it’s probably not legal where you are, and because we are certainly not going to be correct all that often. Per our tradition, we’ll be flipping a bit of foreign currency to provide some randomization, and to make it easier for readers to mock us in the comments when we are correct roughly as often as a flipped Turkish coin. So with the first Sunday nearly upon us — let’s all just agree to pretend that weird Wednesday Night Football thing never happened — your Daily Fix pickers are ready: maybe not right, but definitely right on time, even when the rest of the league seems oddly early.

This may be the most Week 1 line of Week 1, at least in terms of how initially jarring it is. The Colts looked to have a real shot at a winless record last season before journeyman backup Dan Orlovsky changed everything. Or… that’s an overstatement. I just wanted to type that. But he did win the team a couple of games down the stretch and put the entire point of that lost season — scoring the first pick, and with it Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck — in jeopardy. Today Orlovsky is, as you surely know, with Tampa Bay, Luck is under center for an overhauled Indianapolis team and that lost season seems long, long ago. So it seems odd to see such a large line: Doesn’t Vegas know that Luck looked pretty good in the preseason, and that The Future Is Bright? More likely, it’s a result of Vegas knowing that the Colts are throwing a rookie quarterback at one of the NFL’s best defenses, on the road. The future is indeed promising in Indianapolis. But, at least in this game, Colts fans can expect things to feel more like the immediate past. —DR

There are few more extravagantly misbegotten things in sports than a heavily hyped Philadelphia team. With all due respect to the howling entitlement creatures in Red Sox Nation, Philadelphia’s sports fans, who strike an exceedingly odd balance between pessimism and ultra-demanding perfectionism, may be the most impossible to please in all the world. All that said, last year’s presumed dream team was arguably less complete than this year’s grounded-in-reality team. The Eagles are just as dependent upon Michael Vick staying healthy, which he already isn’t thanks to a rib injury that hearkens back uncomfortably to last season. There is still juggernaut running back LeSean McCoy, and linebacker DeMeco Ryans could help considerably on the defense, although he didn’t look great in the preseason. It’s not a dream, exactly, but playing the Browns in Week 1 is the opposite of a nightmare. —DR

The New England Patriots have such a hard-earned reputation for brutal brilliance that it’s difficult to remember just how underwhelming they usually look on paper. Yes, they have the NFL’s best and most hilarious tight end and arguably the NFL’s best quarterback, full stop. That they dumped a bunch of veterans in their last round of cuts is very Patriots, but their pass defense was the worst in the NFL last year and remains a question mark heading into this season. The Titans may not be the team to exploit that weakness, but they’re a decent team playing at home, so it’s not hard to imagine them keeping it close. Well, it’s not hard for me to imagine, at least. —DR

Because the Kansas City Chiefs spent much of their downer of a 2011 season as injured captives of seething rage-beast Todd Haley, it’s tempting to simply throw out their entire season. But while new coach Romeo Crennel certainly seems like a nicer person than Haley — which is not that big a deal: multiple Trumps can claim as much — the Chiefs are already severely depleted on defense, with ace pass-rusher Tamba Hali suspended by the league and linchpin linebacker Derrick Johnson already limping. The Falcons, who will debut their new vertical passing offense against that dinged-up defense, are forever slightly less good than expected, or than they could or should be. But it seems reasonable to expect that they’ll be a touchdown or so better than the Chiefs, at least this week. —DR

Oh boy. Yes, this is Week 1, and yes that is exciting. But this match-up is throwing off some real Week 12 vibes, in the most headache-y, need-to-get-off-the-couch/can’t-get-off-the-couch way possible. It’s quite possible that one or both of these teams will be better than they were during their dreary 2011 seasons. Jacksonville has Maurice Jones-Drew back from his contract holdout, although he’ll have to play himself into shape, but that’s possible; heck, even quarterback Blaine Gabbert looked strong during the preseason. And the Vikings still have Adrian Peterson, who insists that he’s healthy enough to play in this one and may not even have to insist upon his health in weeks to come. All sorts of things could happen to these teams, in this game and later in the season. But if you’ve got anything else to watch on the DVR, during this game might be a good time to watch those things. Or you could go for a walk. The weather won’t be this good when Week 12 arrives for real. —DR

Washington at New Orleans (-7) DR: New Orleans; JG: New Orleans; KtTL: Washington

Yes, they now have Robert Griffin III, who’s inarguably one of the more exciting young quarterbacks to come into the league in some time. But the Washington Redskins are, truth be told and much as they were last year, kind of a mess. Thanks to owner Daniel Snyder, the roster remains stacked with limping veterans of the 2007 Pro Bowl; thanks to coach Mike Shanahan, the whole endeavor feels thwarted and unsettled and odd. But, thanks to the New Orleans Saints—a team that begins the season with its coach, GM, top assistant and several top players suspended due to that whole shameful bounty thing—the Redskins are arguably the more together team in this game. They are not, however, the more talented. As long as the Saints have Drew Brees and his offensive cohorts, they’re better than the ‘Skins, and most other teams. For all that tumult, that line looks about right to us. —DR

Buffalo at New York Jets (-3) DR: Buffalo; JG: Buffalo; KtTL: Buffalo

Every one of the last 12 NFL seasons could, in theory, have been the one that broke Buffalo’s longest-in-the-NFL postseason drought. Rob Johnson might’ve suddenly shown the poise of, say, Brad Johnson. Drew Bledsoe might’ve discovered time travel. J.P. Losman might’ve…well, actually, those were dark times. But this year, not just in theory but in actuality, the Bills look like a team that really could make the playoffs. The addition of numerous stars — starting with pass-rushing ace Mario Williams — to the defense should help a great deal, as should a healthy Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was one of the NFL’s best passers and best stories last season before playing the second half of the season with injured ribs. In the near term, what should help the most is playing the New York Jets. The Jets can’t be quite as terrible as they looked during the preseason, and probably won’t be, but they don’t seem the better team, here. This may or may not be the season for these Bills. But this week does look pretty good. —DR

St. Louis at Detroit (-7.5) DR: Detroit; JG: Detroit; KtTL: St. Louis
I’m literally not exaggerating when I say this is the first year in my adult lifetime when the Lions haven’t entered a new season in the aftermath of some horrific disappointment, so it is difficult in the extreme to expect them to build on 2011’s Pyrrhic campaign. But while that season was Pyrrhic in that they finally made the playoffs, and then got quite predictably blown out in the first round, it was at least a start. The Lions can still really score the ball as long as Megatron stays Megatron and Matt Stafford stays healthy, while the Rams are in the sixth year of an infinite rebuilding process. —JG

Miami at Houston (-13) DR: Houston; JG: Houston; KtTL: Houston
The Dolphins can’t really be this uninspiring, right? Sure, it took a while to accept the Texans as the AFC South’s new overlords, and Miami is still benefiting from the positive impressions first-year coach Joe Philbin has earned with his tough talk. But with Matt Schaub entering a contract year and the two-headed monster of Andre Johnson and Arian Foster healthy for now, it’s the Texans’ blowout to lose — especially as the Dolphins are starting a consolation rookie quarterback and because their most exciting offensive player is a guy the Saints gave away for free. —JG

San Francisco at Green Bay (-5) DR: San Francisco; JG: Green Bay; KtTL: San Francisco
The 49ers still have a frightening defense, and I could very well end up regretting this. But I’m sure some advanced statistic exists somewhere saying that teams quarterbacked by Alex Smith are doomed to regress, just as I’m sure there’s one qualitatively proving that the Packers would average 97 points a game if their receivers never dropped the ball. Apart from a playoff loss to the Giants so unbelievable that I had to double-check my glass of water hadn’t been accidentally substituted with alcohol, the Packers have played at an unmatchable level of offensive excellence since winning the Super Bowl in 2011. There’s little reason to think the streak won’t continue. —JG

Seattle (-3) at ArizonaDR: Arizona; JG: Arizona; KtTL: Arizona
Reader, I’ll level with you: There is no earthly reason for anyone outside of either team’s fan base to care about this Week 1 matchup, not when they’re already mired in uninspiring quarterback battles. We’ll flip a non-Kemal coin and say it boils down to which relentless force you find worthier of your faith: Marshawn Lynch or Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald hauled in 1,411 yards last season despite having a veritable rotation of garbage-armed backups tossing him the ball. That hasn’t changed, but he is playing at home. —JG

Carolina (-2.5) at Tampa BayDR: Carolina; JG: Carolina; KtTL: Carolina
To be honest, the finer points of either team’s strengths and weaknesses are rendered meaningless by what should be everyone’s giddy feelings toward Cam Newton, who cooled off a little bit toward the end of last season but still turned a fairly terrible Panthers team into consistent must-see TV. Another year in the pressure cooker should only speed along his development. The Bucs, for their part, are still bad enough that Chip Kelly actually won more praise for not taking a pay raise from them and making the move to warmer weather. —JG

Pittsburgh at Denver (-1.5) DR: Denver; JG: Pittsburgh; KtTL: Pittsburgh
In between Super Bowl predictions, there must exist a bearish opinion on Peyton Manning’s return to form, if it ever comes. Regardless of how impressive he may have looked in meaningless preseason contests, he’s still a year and a half removed from his last full NFL game, and he’s playing in a new system that will take some time to master. Apart from the Manning love, the Broncos must also be favorites due to the spectral hangover of Tim Tebow’s spectacularly embarrassing game-winning touchdown pass against the Steelers in last season’s playoffs. The Steelers must surely be over it by now, though Mike Wallace still won’t stop tweeting obscenities at Tebow. —JG

MONDAY’S GAMES

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-6) DR: Baltimore; JG: Cincinnati; KtTL: Baltimore
The Ravens are an eternally unsexy constant, always in the mix even though they haven’t broken through to the next level in more than a decade. It seems foolish to bet against their defense, but the Dalton-to-Green-led Bengals offense added a running back who doesn’t fumble the ball, and no one has stopped laughing at Joe Flacco for calling himself the best quarterback in the game. Baltimore won both of their contests last year, but they were close enough that it only seems mildly bold to guess that the Bengals will either win outright or come within a few heartbreaking plays from victory. —JG

San Diego at Oakland (-1)DR: San Diego; JG: San Diego; KtTL: San Diego
The Chargers have frequently disappointed over the last decade, but only so far as failing to advance further in the playoffs than expected. They’ve rarely looked outright terrible, which is why last year was kind of shocking. And whatever gains the Raiders made last season were swiftly countermanded by the complete replacement of their coaching staff, along with the fact that they don’t really have a backup for Darren McFadden after letting Michael Bush go in free agency. Those factors might not be super apparent in the first week, but the Chargers should still be talented enough to brush off the insult of not being favored against a team that traded two first-round picks for Carson Palmer. —JG

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