Terrorism: pressure and weakness don’t mean end

Our team noticed a divide between counter-terrorist experts. On the one hand, many of them thought the terrorist wave has just started while, on the other hand, a number of them said the Brussels Attacks showed ISIS – or at least its European operational force – has weakened instead. Indeed, ISIS might be feeling the pressure, both in Syria/Iraq and in Europe, given that the deadly attacks in Paris and Brussels may have finally ringed a bell inside the heads of our too often intelligence-deficient political leaders.

As a result, having Western intelligence chasing you is not the optimal configuration if you seek to perpetrate additional attacks. However, make no mistake, though the context has greatly complicated, ISIS has shown a strong – unprecedented – capacity of conducting multi-target multi-area multi-modus-operandi attacks at a same time. Over the last week, at least 3 dozens operatives carried suicide operations in very different theaters of operations. ISIS achieved a prime objective that is carrying out two major deadly attacks in a short timeframe: Paris on November 13, 2015 and Brussels on March 22, 2016. Our team warned this could have great consequences.

Now that this prime objective has been reached, terrorists may now logicallyfocus their attention on more deadly / symbolic / economically destructive targets like nuclear plants, schools, hospitals or Churches. Why? Now that Europeans have received loud and clear the message that they could be killed anywhere despite extra security measures – even in the heart of most safe areas like Zaventem and Maelbeek – terrorists, who are so eager to trigger all-out inter-faith violence inside Europe, may now seek to create more significant havoc. Many hope this could be the end, but what will count the most will be the last attack. Was Brussels the last one? Given the facts, it’s unlikely.