Back to a Near TieThe following seat projection is based upon an aggregation of polls from Abacus, Ekos, Ipsos and Forum conducted between June 3-8 among a blended sample of approximately 5000 respondents. Figures show declining variance in the Liberal-Conservative differential among pollsters, but a large discrepancy in NDP support has emerged. Polling firms have ranged from 17- to 28-percentage points among the different polling firms during the same week. When aggregated together and weighted for sample size, the Liberals have a one-point lead over the Conservatives, and the overall pattern appears very similar to the 2011 election result. If this pattern of support sustains, the outcome would probably be another Liberal minority government. The method used by LISPOP has shown to be accurate to an average of 2.2 seats per party per election over six previous Ontario provincial elections. The 2011 election results are in parentheses.

Projected distribution of seats by party, released June 10, 2014

Seat Projection

41

47

19

2011 Election

37

53

17

Toronto

0 (0)

18 (17)

4 (5)

GTA

4 (4)

13 (13)

1 (1)

Hamilton-Niag.

3 (3)

4 (4)

4 (4)

East

17 (14)

5 (8)

0 (0)

SouthWest

16 (15)

4 (7)

4 (2)

North

1 (1)

3 (4)

6 (5)

Note:

The 2011 election results are in brackets. The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper
originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual
meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled
"Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting
Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted
that the application of the model above does not make use of the
"incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past
elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the
model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per
party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal
elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls
dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario
provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.