Methodology that recently lead us to predict to an amazing accuracy the date (July 11, 2008) of reverse of the oilprice up trend is briefly summarized and some further aspects of the related oilprice dynamics elaborated. This methodology is based on the concept of discrete scale invariance whose finance-prediction-oriented variant involves such elements as log-periodic self-similarity, the universal preferred scaling factor lambda=2, and allows a phenomenon of the "super-bubble". From this perspective the present (as of August 22, 2008) violent - but still log-periodically decelerating - decrease of the oilprices is associated with the decay of such a "super- bubble" that has started developing about one year ago on top of the longer-term oilpriceincreasing phase (normal bubble) whose ultimate termination is evaluated to occur in around mid 2010.

an alternative investment strategy to buying oil today andinvestments necessary to catch up. This was the view o?ered by oilinvestment strategy. date t) in order to purchase a quantity Q barrels of oil

This paper examines the price-reversibility of world oil demand, using price-decomposition methods employed previously on other energy demand data. We conclude that the reductions in world oil demand following the oilpriceincreases of the 1970s will not be completely reversed by the price cuts of the 1980s. The response to price cuts in the 1980s is perhaps only one-fifth that for priceincreases in the 1970s. This has dramatic implications for projections of oil demand, especially under low-price assumptions. We also consider the effect on demand of a price recovery (sub-maximum increase) in the 1990s - due either to OPEC or to a carbon tax-specifically whether the effects would be as large as for the priceincreases of the 1970s or only as large as the smaller demand reversals of the 1980s. On this the results are uncertain, but a tentative conclusion is that the response to a price recovery would lie midway between the small response to price cuts and the larger response to increases in the maximum historical price. Finally, we demonstrate two implications of wrongly assuming that demand is perfectly price-reversible. First, such an assumption will grossly overestimate the demand response to price declines of the 1980s. Secondly, and somewhat surprisingly, it causes an underestimate of the effect of income growth on future demand. 21 refs., 11 figs., 1 tab.

The aim of this paper is to test whether a stable long-term relationship exists between oilprices of the relationship between oilprices and the real effective exchange rate of the dollarOilPrice and the Dollar Virginie Coudert , Val´erie Mignon , Alexis Penot§ 6th April 2005 Abstract

Research on oil markets conducted during the last decade has challenged long-held beliefs about the causes and consequences of oilprice shocks. As the empirical and theoretical models used by economists have evolved, so has our understanding of the determinants of oilprice shocks and of the interaction between oil markets and the global economy. Some of the key insights are that the real price of oil is endogenous with respect to economic fundamentals, and that oilprice shocks do not occur ceteris paribus. This makes it necessary to explicitly account for the demand and supply shocks underlying oilprice shocks when studying their transmission to the domestic economy. Disentangling cause and effect in the relationship between oilprices and the economy requires structural models of the global economy including oil and other commodity markets.

In 1983 Hamilton demonstrated the correlation between the price of oil and gross national product for the U.S. economy. A prolific literature followed exploring the potential correlation of oilprices with other important indices like inflation, industrial production, and food prices, using increasingly refined tools. Our work sheds new light on the role of oilprices in shaping the world economy by investigating the metabolic paths of value across trade between 1960 and 2010, by means of Markov Chain analysis. We show that the interdependence of countries' economies are strictly (anti)correlated to the price of oil. We observed a remarkably high correlation of 0.85, unmatched by any former study addressing the correlation between oilprice and major economic indicators.

Gasoline markets in 1996 and 1997 provided several spectacular examples of petroleum market dynamics. The first occurred in spring 1996, when tight markets, following a long winter of high demand, resulted in rising crude oilprices just when gasoline prices exhibit their normal spring rise ahead of the summer driving season. Rising crude oilprices again pushed gasoline prices up at the end of 1996, but a warm winter and growing supplies weakened world crude oil markets, pushing down crude oil and gasoline prices during spring 1997. The 1996 and 1997 spring markets provided good examples of how crude oilprices can move gasoline prices both up and down, regardless of the state of the gasoline market in the United States. Both of these spring events were covered in prior Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports. As the summer of 1997 was coming to a close, consumers experienced yet another surge in gasoline prices. Unlike the previous increase in spring 1996, crude oil was not a factor. The late summer 1997 priceincrease was brought about by the supply/demand fundamentals in the gasoline markets, rather than the crude oil markets. The nature of the summer 1997 gasoline priceincrease raised questions regarding production and imports. Given very strong demand in July and August, the seemingly limited supply response required examination. In addition, the priceincrease that occurred on the West Coast during late summer exhibited behavior different than the increase east of the Rocky Mountains. Thus, the Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 5 region needed additional analysis (Appendix A). This report is a study of this late summer gasoline market and some of the important issues surrounding that event.

shocks, Oilprice uncertainty, Nonlinearity in the OilPrice- Output Relationship. 2 #12;Table Production: Is the Relationship Linear?" John Elder and Apostolos Serletis, "Volatility in OilPrices-Term OilPrice Forecasts: A New Perspective on Oil and the Macroeconomy." 3 #12;1 Overview The relationship

Several recent studies establish that crude oil and natural gas prices are cointegrated, so that changes in the price of oil appear to translate into changes in the price of natural gas. Yet at times in the past, and very ...

Since 2003 the international oil market has been moving away from the previous 20-year equilibrium in which prices fluctuated around $25/bbl (in today's dollars). The single most important reason is that growing demand has ...

This book discusses the geopolitical consequences of the oil-price drop in such countries as Indonesia, Nigeria, Algeria, Mexico and Egypt. It also assesses the overall implications of the drop in oilprices on oil-producing areas.

1 Business Cycle Effects on Metal and OilPrices: Understanding the Price Retreat of 2008 of macroeconomic business cycles on six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange and oilprices. Reduced GDP oilprices (as a proxy for energy inputs in metals production) are derived. The estimated trend

We outline initial concepts for an immune inspired algorithm to evaluate and predict oilprice time series data. The proposed solution evolves a short term pool of trackers dynamically, with each member attempting to map trends and anticipate future price movements. Successful trackers feed into a long term memory pool that can generalise across repeating trend patterns. The resulting sequence of trackers, ordered in time, can be used as a forecasting tool. Examination of the pool of evolving trackers also provides valuable insight into the properties of the crude oil market.

The Impact of OilPrices on the Air Transportation Industry Final Report Prepared by: John Hansman................................................................................................47 3 EVALUATING THE EFFECTS OF OILPRICE CHANGE ON THE US DOMESTIC CARGO INDUSTRY .................48 3............................................................................................................................74 4 OILPRICE IMPACTS IN GENERAL AVIATION

Oilprices and government bond risk premiums By Hervé Alexandre*º Antonin de Benoist * Abstract : This article analyses the impact of oilprice on bond risk premiums issued by emerging economies. No empirical study has yet focussed on the effects of the oilprice on government bond risk premiums. We develop

Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of crude oilprices to gasoline and natural gas prices Ahmed distributed lags (NARDL) mod- el to examine the pass-through of crude oilprices into gasoline and natural gas the possibility to quantify the respective responses of gasoline and natural gas prices to positive and negative

Over the long term, the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO) projection for world oilprices -- defined as the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners -- is similar to the AEO2006 projection. In the near term, however, AEO2007 projects prices that are $8 to $10 higher than those in AEO2006.

World oilprices in Annual Energy Outlook 2005 are set in an environment where the members of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) are assumed to act as the dominant producers, with lower production costs than other supply regions or countries. Non-OPEC oil producers are assumed to behave competitively, producing as much oil as they can profitability extract at the market price for oil. As a result, the OPEC member countries will be able effectively to set the price of oil when they can act in concert by varying their aggregate production. Alternatively, OPEC members could target a fixed level of production and let the world market determine the price.

Lower OilPrices: A Reason to Give Thanks By GENE EPSTEIN Nov. 29, 2014 1:31 a.m. ET I give thanks thanks for an oilprice that fell below $70 a barrel Friday, mainly because it bodes well for general early this year ("Here Comes $75 Oil," March 31). Amy Jaffe, executive director of energy

World oilprices in the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO) reference case are substantially higher than those in the AEO2005 reference case. In the AEO2006 reference case, world crude oilprices, in terms of the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners, decline from current levels to about $47 per barrel (2004 dollars) in 2014, then rise to $54 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2030. The price in 2025 is approximately $21 per barrel higher than the corresponding price projection in the AEO2005 reference case.

This thesis aims to answer: (1) to what extent can oilprices and other economic indicators predict the changes in housing prices and rent in the Calgary single family housing market and (2) to determine what the lag time ...

Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO) defines the world oilprice as the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma. Since 2003, both "above ground" and "below ground" factors have contributed to a sustained rise in nominal world oilprices, from $31 per barrel in 2003 to $69 per barrel in 2007. The AEO2008 reference case outlook for world oilprices is higher than in the AEO2007 reference case. The main reasons for the adoption of a higher reference case price outlook include continued significant expansion of world demand for liquids, particularly in non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries, which include China and India; the rising costs of conventional non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) supply and unconventional liquids production; limited growth in non-OPEC supplies despite higher oilprices; and the inability or unwillingness of OPEC member countries to increase conventional crude oil production to levels that would be required for maintaining price stability. The Energy Information Administration will continue to monitor world oilprice trends and may need to make further adjustments in future AEOs.

The Price of Oil Risk Steven D. Baker, Bryan R. Routledge, September 2011 [December 20, 2012 multiple goods. We use this optimal consumption allocation to derive a pricing kernel and the price of oil for oil. As an example, in a calibrated version of our model we show how rising oilprices and falling oil

The scaling properties of oilprice fluctuations are described as a non-stationary stochastic process realized by a time series of finite length. An original model is used to extract the scaling exponent of the fluctuation functions within a non-stationary process formulation. It is shown that, when returns are measured over intervals less than 10 days, the Probability Density Functions (PDFs) exhibit self-similarity and monoscaling, in contrast to the multifractal behavior of the PDFs at macro-scales (typically larger than one month). We find that the time evolution of the distributions are well fitted by a Levy distribution law at micro-scales. The relevance of a Levy distribution is made plausible by a simple model of nonlinear transfer

This thesis reviews how oilprice has evolved throughout time since it was discovered and commercially exploited in 1859 in Pennsylvania. Rather than a pure economic study, this thesis illustrates how major historic and ...

This thesis is composed of three chapters, which can be read independently. The first chapter investigates how oilprice volatility affects the investment decisions for a panel of Japanese firms. The model is estimated ...

relationship between oil and stock markets, which parallels the one between high oilprices and macroeconomicOILPRICE IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS: CO-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR EXPORTING VERSUS IMPORTING://www.economie.polytechnique.edu/ mailto:chantal.poujouly@polytechnique.edu hal-00822070,version1-14May2013 #12;1 Oilprice impact

Oilprices are very volatile. But much of this volatility seems to reflect short-term,transitory factors that may have little or no influence on the price in the long run. Many major investment decisions should be guided ...

A time series is estimated of in-ground prices - as distinct from wellhead prices ? of US oil and natural gas reserves for the period 1982-2002, using market purchase and sale transaction information. The prices are a ...

This paper develops a novel approach by which to identify the price of oil at the time of depletion; the so-called terminal price of oil. It is shown that while the terminal price is independent of both GDP growth and the price elasticity of energy...

This study proposes two methods, (1) a probabilistic method based on historical oilprices and (2) a method based on Gaussian simulation, to model future prices of oil. With these methods to model future oilprices, we can calculate the ranges...

On the relationship between world oilprices and GCC stock markets Mohamed El Hedi Arouri Associate ABSTRACT We provide comprehensive evidence on the relationship between oilprices and stock mar- kets,version1-7Mar2013 #12;2 1. Introduction The causal relationship between oilprices and stock markets has

EA 4272 On the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals: Revisiting,version1-17Apr2014 #12;On the relationship between the Prices of oil and the Precious Metals: Revisiting/US dollar exchange rates, the S&P500 equity indices, and the prices of WTI crude oil and the precious metals

on so many other market sectors. In addition, oilprices have historically exhibited a num- ber of shortOilPrice Trackers Inspired by Immune Memory William Wilson , Phil Birkin , and Uwe Aickelin School concepts for an immune inspired algorithm to evaluate and predict oilprice time se- ries data

The oilprice really is a speculative bubble. Yet only recently has the U.S. Congress, for example, showed recognition that this might even be a possibility. In general there seems to be a preference for the claim that the ...

European polypropylene (PP) producers are gearing up for yet another attempt to raise prices and stem their losses. Despite a string of pricing initiatives throughout 1992, the oversupplied PP market continued to sink. It slipped again in January, with many producers accusing their competitors of price cutting to raise sales volumes. The difference this time is that all the major players have stated their readiness to hike prices, while output has been cut back considerably to reduce stocks. Sentiment in the market is that prices simply cannot be allowed to go any lower. Neste Chemicals (Helsinki) has led the way by announcing a 40-pfennig/kg increase, effective March 1. Sven Svensson, Neste's v.p./PP, says the increase was announced early to allow converters to adjust the prices of their products. Huels (Marl, Germany) has since announced a 30 pfennig-40 pfennig/kg hike for February or March, Hoechst (Frankfurt) says it will go for a similar increase March 1, Amoco Chemical Europe (Geneva) has promised a hike effective February 1, while Himont (Milan) and Brussels-based Petrofina and Solvay confirm they will also be raising prices. There could be a greater sense of urgency now that propylene contracts have been raised for February. The lowest PP price so far reported in Europe has been BF12.50/kg (DM0.61/kg) for raffia-grade material in Belgium. The French market is about F2.20/kg; the UK at [Brit pounds]290/m.t.; German prices are slightly firmer at DM0.70/kg, with injection molding at about DM0.75/kg. PP copolymer prices have fallen precipitously since early December, with German levels dropping by 20 pfennig/kg, to about DM0.90/kg.

The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these priceincreases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, then add pre-processed futures prices for 1, 2, 3,and four months to maturity, one by one and also altogether. The results on the benchmark suggest that a dynamic model of 13 lags is the optimal to forecast spot price direction for the short-term. Further, the forecast accuracy of the direction of the market was 78%, 66%, and 53% for one, two, and three days in future conclusively. For all the experiments, that include futures data as an input, the results show that on the short-term, futures prices do hold new information on the spot price direction. The results obtained will generate comprehensive understanding of the cr...

If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oilprice (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oilprices averaged 8.6; and in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oilprice case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oilprice case.

The historical basis for a link between crude oil and natural gas prices was examined to determine whether one has existed in the past and exists in the present. Physical bases for a price relationship are examined. An ...

Crude oilprices plunged to five year lows late in 1993. However, examination of consumer petroleum product prices around the world reveals that consumers in many countries did not enjoy a consequent drop.

Over the 1995-2005 period, crude oilprices and U.S. natural gas prices tended to move together, which supported the conclusion that the markets for the two commodities were connected. Figure 26 illustrates the fairly stable ratio over that period between the price of low-sulfur light crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, and the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub on an energy-equivalent basis.

that figure by the current production rate of about 23.6 Gbo a year might suggest that crude oil could remain dependence on cheap crude oil. Prices first tripled in re- sponse to an Arab embargo and then nearly doubled of readily accessible crude oil (so-called conventional oil). The five Middle Eastern members of the Orga

: is there evidence of super cycles in crude oilprices? On one hand, one might expect the strong demand associatedIs There Evidence of Super Cycles in OilPrices?* Abdel M. Zellou and John T. Cuddington** March 22 since 2000 represents the early phase of a `super cycle' (SC) driven by the sustained rise in demand

with another spike in gasoline prices and their reported record profits. Some months ago, during the last gasoline price spike, Congress summoned the executives of the Big Oil companies to testify aboutDoes Big Oil Collude and Price Gouge? Big Oil came back into the headlines in recent weeks

Most empirical studies have focused on the demand side of energy with little or no attention to the supply side. To deal with this defect, this paper adopts a microanalytic approach to the problem of the individual oil firms to provide a basis for determining the effects of changes in such macro-variables as prices on their operations. However, instead of the familiar econometric approach to energy studies, a goal programming approach is adopted. Using a multinational oil company as a case study, the effects of change in crude oilprices are examined. The results, among other things, support the hypersensitivity of oil companies to changes in economic cycles, the price inelasticity of demand for crude oil in the short run, and a time lag between price change and the time an oil company responds to it. The management and policy implications of the results are also discussed. 28 refs., 3 tabs.

the short-run relationships between oilprices and GCC stock markets. Since GCC countries are major world relatively little work done on the relationships between oilprice variations and stock markets) shows a significant relationship between oilprice changes and stock markets in Greece. Basher

the dynamic relationship between oilprice variations and stock markets. The pioneering paper by Jones model with GARCH effects to American monthly data and shows a significant relationship between oilpriceOilPrices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over

Rouen & LEO Abstract This paper examines the short-run relationships between oilprices and GCC stock on the relationships between oilprice variations and stock markets, as underlined by Basher and Sadorsky (2006. For instance, using a VAR model, Papapetrou (2001) shows a significant relationship between oilprice changes

in the price of crude oil quickly transmit themselves through the "food chain," quickly hitting gasoline prices an additional pop to the price. In addition, the futures markets draw off gasoline from existing stocks to supply more gasoline in the near future, when even higher prices are expected. In other words, prices

The oilprices reported in Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO) represent the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil in 2007 dollars. Projections of future supply and demand are made for "liquids," a term used to refer to those liquids that after processing and refining can be used interchangeably with petroleum products. In AEO2009, liquids include conventional petroleum liquids -- such as conventional crude oil and natural gas plant liquids -- in addition to unconventional liquids, such as biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Agricultural producers use put options to protect themselves against declining prices. The technique of "rolling up a put option, explained in this publication, allows the producer to raise the minimum expected selling price of a put option...

The Corona Inception Voltage of insulating oils is increased by repetitive cycles of prestressing the oil with a voltage greater than the corona inception voltage, and either simultaneously or serially removing byproducts of corona by evacuation and heating the oil. 5 figs.

This paper provides electricity cost price estimates for biomass-based CHP plants and oil shale power plants to be constructed before 2013 and 2015 that can serve as references for more detailed case-specific studies. Calcula-tion results give electricity costs prices under different CO2 quota

The goal of this study was to determine quantitatively how sensitive and vulnerable the Libyan economy's aggregates are to fluctuations in world oilprices. In order to achieve the goal, a macroeconomic model of the Libyan economy was constructed using annual data from 1962-1978. The model contains 36 relations, of which 19 are behavioral equations and 17 are identities. The model was validated by both historical simulation and a one-period out-of-sample forecast. Having established the predictive ability of the model, alternative future scenarios of the Libyan economy were examined from 1980-1987 by performing an ex-ante simulation for this period. This simulation was divided into two sections. The first covers the period 1980-1983, for which actual data for Libyan oilprices and the volume of Libyan oil exports are available. The second section covers the period 1984-1987. In this section the future of the Libyan economy was simulated under a basic price scenario which reflects the most likely forecast regarding the world oilprice level from 1984-1987. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed by establishing a new scenario for the world oilprice level from 1984-1987. A comparison the results of these simulations shows the effects resulting from changes in the world oilprice level on the Libyan economy.

The Elk Hills Naval Petroleum Reserve is located near Bakersfield, California and ranks seventh among domestic producing oil fields. In Feb. 1986 the Department of Energy awarded contracts to 16 companies for the sale of about 82,000 barrels per day of NPR crude oil between April and September 1986. These companies bid a record high average discount of $4.49 from DOE's base price. The discounts ranged from $0.87 to $6.98 per barrel. These contracts resulted in DOE selling Elk Hills oil as low as $3.91 per barrel. Energy stated that the process for selling from NPR had gotten out of step with today's marketplace. Doe subsequently revised its sales procedures which requires bidders to submit a specific price for the oil rather than a discount to a base price. DOE also initiated other efforts designed to avoid future NPR oil sales at less than fair market value.

Increasing Gas Prices: Good Economics, but Bad Public Relations Rising gasoline prices captured interest during our current gasoline shortage. That is, a higher price rations the product to the best use for temporarily foregoing the state gasoline tax. Will that lower gas prices? No. Gas prices rose not because

We document a new stylized fact regarding the term structure of futures volatility. We show that the relationship between the volatility of futures prices and the slope of the term structure of prices is non-monotone and ...

The U.S. Department of Energy prepared this Final Statement to FEA-FES-77-7 to assess the environmental and socioeconomic implications of a rulemaking on crude oilpricing incentives as pertains to the full range of oil production technologies (present as well as anticipated.)

What would be the effect of CO2 pricing on global oil supply and demand? This paper introduces a model describing the interaction between conventional and non-conventional oil supply in a Hotelling framework and under CO2 constraints. The model...

The 1970 price of Saudi Light crude was $1.21, of which 89 cents was excise tax. By end-1974, the price was about $11, of which 30-50 cents was a fee paid to the former owners, now operators. The detailed history of the ...

The Congress expressed concern about the Department of Energy's actions in selling oil from the Elk Hills Naval Petroleum Reserve at what appeared to be unreasonably low prices. DOE officials believe that Naval Petroleum Reserve oil has been and is currently being produced at the appropriate rate and that no recoverable oil has been lost. This fact sheet provides information on the basis for the procedures followed by DOE in selling Naval Petroleum Reserve oil and sales data for the period extending from October 1985 through April 1986.

The fast economical growth of Estonia in past years has set us several questions on sustainability of oil shale mining in Estonia. For how long do the oil shale resources last? What are the mining expenditures in the areas of different mining conditions and how do they change in future? Thus, in

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for On-Highway4,1,50022,3,,,,6,1,9,1,50022,3,,,,6,1,Decade Year-0E (2001)gasoline prices continueshort version) The U.S. average

This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labour exporting country that receives large inflows of external income - the sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfers - from major oil exporting economies...

This work applies the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to data on real quarterly oilprice (West Texas Intermediate - WTI) and U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). This relatively new method is adaptive and capable of handling non-linear and non-stationary data. Correlation analysis of the decomposition results was performed and examined for insights into the oil-macroeconomy relationship. Several components of this relationship were identified. However, the principal one is that the medium-run cyclical component of the oilprice exerts a negative and exogenous influence on the main cyclical component of the GDP. This can be interpreted as the supply-driven or supply-shock component of the oilprice-GDP relationship. In addition, weak correlations suggesting a lagging demand-driven, an expectations-driven, and a long-run supply-driven component of the relationship were also identified. Comparisons of these findings with significant oil supply disruption and recession dates were supportive. The study identified a number of lessons applicable to recent oil market events, including the eventuality of persistent economic and price declines following a long oilprice run-up. In addition, it was found that oil-market related exogenous events are associated with short- to medium-run price implications regardless of whether they lead to actual supply disruptions.

We characterize the macroeconomic performance of a set of industrialized economies in the aftermath of the oilprice shocks of the 1970s and of the last decade, focusing on the differences across episodes. We examine four ...

Introduction. A working paper entitled "Oil and Natural Gas Reserve Prices 1982-2002: Implications for Depletion and Investment Cost" was published in October 2003 (cited hereafter as Adelman & Watkins [2003]). Since then ...

Sunco Oil manufactures three types of gasoline (gas 1, gas 2 and gas 3). Each type is produced by blending three types of crude oil (crude 1, crude 2 and crude 3). The sales price per barrel of gasoline and the purchase price per barrel of crude oil are given in following table: Gasoline Sale Price per barrel Gas 1

This report summarizes the results of a survey of residential No. 2 distillate fuel (home heating oil) and liquefied petroleum gas (propane) prices over the 1995--1996 heating season in Michigan. The Michigan`s Public Service Commission (MPSC) conducted the survey under a cooperative agreement with the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Energy Information Administration (EIA). This survey was funded in part by a grant from the DOE. From October 1995 through March 1996, the MPSC surveyed participating distributors by telephone for current residential retail home heating oil and propane prices. The MPSC transmitted the data via a computer modem to the EIA using the Petroleum Electronic Data Reporting Option (PEDRO). Survey results were published in aggregate on the MPSC World Wide Web site at http://ermisweb.state.mi.us/shopp. The page was updated with both residential and wholesale prices immediately following the transmission of the data to the EIA. The EIA constructed the survey using a sample of Michigan home heating oil and propane retailers. The sample accounts for different sales volumes, geographic location, and sources of primary supply.

Gelled polymer treatments were applied to oil reservoirs to increaseoil production and to reduce water production by altering the fluid movement within the reservoir. This report is aimed at reducing barriers to the widespread use of these treatments by developing methods to predict gel behavior during placement in matrix rock and fractures, determining the persistence of permeability reduction after gel placement, and by developing methods to design production well treatments to control water production. Procedures were developed to determine the weight-average molecular weight and average size of polyacrylamide samples in aqueous solutions. Sample preparation techniques were key to achieving reproducible results.

of the 1990s oilprices have been steadily increasing, reflecting rising demand for crude oil, particularly costs, and reserves (Pindyck, 1999). Supply and demand remain the main factors determining oilprices. More precisely, oil demands depend on oil consumption by developed and developing countries, and oil

and politics of the region. Future pipeline projects – such as the Nabucco pipeline – are highly controversial, and Russia’s efforts to control oil and gas supplies in the region have recently intensified. Russia has gained increased influence in its...

I strongly urge that the forecasts recognize the high oilprices and gas prices experienced in 2008 and the development of carbon capture and storage applied to new coal fired generating stations, gas prices will only go up. Gas from the Rockies will move east as quickly as transport is available. To the extent

Gelled polymer treatments are applied to oil reservoirs to increaseoil production to reduce water production by altering the fluid movement within the reservoir. This research program is aimed at reducing barriers to the widespread use of these treatments by developing methods to predict gel behavior during placement in matrix rock and fractures, determining the persistence of permeability reduction after gel placement, and by developing methods to design production well treatments to control water production. This report describes the progress of the research during the first six months of work. A Dawn EOS multi-angle laser light scattering detector was purchased, installed and calibrated. Experiments were conducted to determine the permeabilities of a bulk gel and of a filter cake which forms when a gel is dehydrated. The pressure at which a gel in a tube is ruptured was measured and was correlated to the length and diameter of the gel.

City of Long Beach; Tidelands Oil Production Company; University of Southern California; David K. Davies and Associates

2002-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

The objective of this project was to increase the recoverable heavy oil reserves within sections of the Wilmington Oil Field, near Long Beach, California through the testing and application of advanced reservoir characterization and thermal production technologies. It was hoped that the successful application of these technologies would result in their implementation throughout the Wilmington Field and, through technology transfer, will be extended to increase the recoverable oil reserves in other slope and basin clastic (SBC) reservoirs.

1 How Increased Crude Oil Demand by China and India Affects the International Market. Abstract The global crude oil market is characterised by complex interactions between demand and supply. The question that we address in this paper is how increased demand for crude oil by China and India affects

The Energy Efficiency Division of the Vermont Department of Public Service (DPS) monitored the price and inventory of residential heating oil and propane during the 1997--98 heating season under a grant from the US Department of Energy`s Energy Information Administration (EIA). DPS staff collected data biweekly between October 5, 1997 and March 16, 1998 on the retail price of {number_sign}2 home heating oil and propane by telephone survey. Propane price quoted was based on the rate for a residential home heating customer using 1,000+ per year. The survey included a sample of fuel dealers selected by the EIA, plus additional dealers and fuels selected by the DPS. The EIA weighted, analyzed, and reported the data collected from their sample.

Gelled polymer treatments are applied to oil reservoirs to increaseoil production and to reduce water production by altering the fluid movement within the reservoir. This report describes the results of a three-year research program aimed at reducing barriers to the widespread use of gelled polymer treatments by (1) developing methods to predict gel behavior during placement in matrix rock and fractures, (2) determining the persistence of permeability reduction after gel placement, and (3) developing methods to design production well treatments to control water production. The work focused on the gel system composed of polyacrylamide and chromium acetate. The molar mass of the polymer was about six million. Chromium(III) acetate reacted and formed crosslinks between polymer molecules. The crosslinked polymer molecules, or pre-gel aggregates, combine and grow to eventually form a 3-dimensional gel. A fundamental study to characterize the formation and growth of pre-gel aggregates was conducted. Two methods, flow field-flow fractionation (FFFF) and multi-angle laser light scattering (MALLS) were used. Studies using FFFF were inconclusive. Data taken using MALLS showed that at the gel time the average molar mass of gel aggregates increased by a factor of about three while the average size increase was approximately 50%. Increased acetate concentration in the gelant increases the gel time. The in situ performance of an added-acetate system was investigated to determine the applicability for in-depth treatments. Increased acetate concentrations delayed the development of increased flow resistance during gelant injection in short sandpacks. The development of increased flow resistance (in situ gelation) was extended from 2 to 34 days by increasing the acetate-to-chromium ratio from 38 to 153. In situ gelation occurred at a time that was approximately 22% of the bulk gelation time. When carbonate rocks are treated with gel, chromium retention in the rock may limit in-depth treatment. Chromium retention due to precipitation was investigated by flowing chromium acetate solutions through carbonate rock. Chromium precipitated faster in the rocks than in beaker experiments at similar conditions. A mathematical model previously developed fit the precipitation data reasonably well. The stability of gels when subjected to stress was investigated by experiments with gels placed in tubes and in laboratory-scale fractures. Rupture pressures for gels placed in small diameter tubes were correlated with the ratio of tube length to tube ID. In fractures, fluid leakoff from the fracture to adjacent matrix rock affected gel formation and gel stability in a positive way. Disproportionate permeability reduction (DPR) was studied in unconsolidated sandpacks and in Berea sandstone cores. A conceptual model was developed to explain the presence of DPR. The effect of a pressure gradient, imposed by injection of oil or brine, on the permeability of gel-treated cores was investigated. DPR increased significantly as the pressure gradient was decreased. The magnitude of the pressure gradient had a much larger effect on water permeability than on oil permeability.

Heightened natural gas prices have emerged as a key energy-policy challenge for at least the early part of the 21st century. With the recent run-up in gas prices and the expected continuation of volatile and high prices in the near future, a growing number of voices are calling for increased diversification of energy supplies. Proponents of renewable energy and energy efficiency identify these clean energy sources as an important part of the solution. Increased deployment of renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) can hedge natural gas price risk in more than one way, but this paper touches on just one potential benefit: displacement of gas-fired electricity generation, which reduces natural gas demand and thus puts downward pressure on gas prices. Many recent modeling studies of increased RE and EE deployment have demonstrated that this ''secondary'' effect of lowering natural gas prices could be significant; as a result, this effect is increasingly cited as justification for policies promoting RE and EE. This paper summarizes recent studies that have evaluated the gas-price-reduction effect of RE and EE deployment, analyzes the results of these studies in light of economic theory and other research, reviews the reasonableness of the effect as portrayed in modeling studies, and develops a simple tool that can be used to evaluate the impact of RE and EE on gas prices without relying on a complex national energy model. Key findings are summarized.

Using daily futures price data, I examine the behavior of natural gas and crude oilprice volatility since 1990. I test whether there has been a significant trend in volatility, whether there was a short-term increase in ...

The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these priceincreases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy PriceIncreases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

City of Long Beach; Tidelands Oil Production Company; University of Southern California; David K. Davies and Associates

2002-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

The objective of this project was to increase the recoverable heavy oil reserves within sections of the Wilmington Oil Field, near Long Beach, California through the testing and application of advanced reservoir characterization and thermal production technologies. The successful application of these technologies would result in expanding their implementation throughout the Wilmington Field and, through technology transfer, to other slope and basin clastic (SBC) reservoirs.

Rapid increases in oilprices in 2008 led some to call for special taxes on the oil industry. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, however, the effects of excise taxes on production or on reported producer profits may ...

City of Long Beach; David K.Davies and Associates; Tidelands Oil Production Company; University of Southern California

1999-06-25T23:59:59.000Z

The objective of this project is to increase the recoverable heavy oil reserves within sections of the Wilmington Oil Field, near Long Beach, California. This is realized through the testing and application of advanced reservoir characterization and thermal production technologies. It is hoped that the successful application of these technologies will result in their implementation throughout the Wilmington Field and through technology transfer, will be extended to increase the recoverable oil reserves in other slope and basin clastic (SBC) reservoirs. The existing steamflood in the Tar zone of Fault Block (FB) II-A has been relatively insufficient because of several producability problems which are common in SBC reservoir; inadequate characterization of the heterogeneous turbidite sands, high permeability thief zones, low gravity oil and non-uniform distribution of the remaining oil. This has resulted in poor sweep efficiency, high steam-oil ratios, and early breakthrough. Operational problems related to steam breakthrough, high reservoir pressure, and unconsolidated sands have caused premature well and downhole equipment failures. In aggregate, these reservoir and operational constraints have resulted in increased operating costs and decreased recoverable reserves.

The objective of this project is to increase the recoverable heavy oil reserves within sections of the Wilmington Oil Field, near Long Beach, California through the testing and application of advanced reservoir characterization and thermal production technologies. The successful application of these technologies will result in expanding their implementation throughout the Wilmington Field and, through technology transfer, to other slope and basin clastic (SBC) reservoirs. The existing steamflood in the Tar zone of Fault Block II-A (Tar II-A) has been relatively inefficient because of several producibility problems which are common in SBC reservoirs: inadequate characterization of the heterogeneous turbidite sands, high permeability thief zones, low gravity oil and non-uniform distribution of the remaining oil. This has resulted in poor sweep efficiency, high steam-oil ratios, and early steam breakthrough. Operational problems related to steam breakthrough, high reservoir pressure, and unconsolidated sands have caused premature well and downhole equipment failures. In aggregate, these reservoir and operational constraints have resulted in increased operating costs and decreased recoverable reserves. A suite of advanced reservoir characterization and thermal production technologies are being applied during the project to improve oil recovery and reduce operating costs.

Waterflooding is by far the most widely used method in the world to increaseoil recovery. Historically, little consideration has been given in reservoir engineering practice to the effect of injection brine composition on waterflood displacement efficiency or to the possibility of increasedoil recovery through manipulation of the composition of the injected water. However, recent work has shown that oil recovery can be significantly increased by modifying the injection brine chemistry or by injecting diluted or low salinity brine. This paper reports on laboratory work done to increase the understanding of improved oil recovery by waterflooding with low salinity injection water. Porous media used in the studies included outcrop Berea sandstone (Ohio, U.S.A.) and reservoir cores from the Green River formation of the Uinta basin (Utah, U.S.A.). Crude oils used in the experimental protocols were taken from the Minnelusa formation of the Powder River basin (Wyoming, U.S.A.) and from the Green River formation, Monument Butte field in the Uinta basin. Laboratory corefloods using Berea sandstone, Minnelusa crude oil, and simulated Minnelusa formation water found a significant relationship between the temperature at which the oil- and water-saturated cores were aged and the oil recovery resulting from low salinity waterflooding. Lower aging temperatures resulted in very little to no additional oil recovery, while cores aged at higher temperatures resulted in significantly higher recoveries from dilute-water floods. Waterflood studies using reservoir cores and fluids from the Green River formation of the Monument Butte field also showed significantly higher oil recoveries from low salinity waterfloods with cores flooded with fresher water recovering 12.4% more oil on average than those flooded with undiluted formation brine.

Balancing Oil and Environment…Responsibly As the price of oil continues to skyrocket and global oil production nears the brink, pursuing unconventional oil supplies, such as oil shale, oil sands, heavy oils, and oils from biomass and coal has become increasingly attractive. Of particular significance to the American way is that our continent has significant quantities of these resources. Tapping into these new resources, however, requires cutting-edge technologies for identification, production, processing and environmental management. This job needs a super hero or two for a job of this size and proportion…

This report summarizes the results of a survey of home heating oil and propane prices over the 1990/1991 heating season in Michigan. The survey was conducted under a cooperative agreement between the State of Michigan, Michigan Public Service Commission and the US Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and was funded by a grant from EIA. From October 1990 through May 1991, participating dealers/distributions were called and asked for their current residential retail prices of No. 2 home heating oil and propane. This information was then transmitted to the EIA, bi-monthly using an electronic reporting system called Petroleum Data Reporting Option (PEDRO). The survey was conducted using a sample provided by EIA of home heating oil and propane retailers which supply Michigan households. These retailers were contacted the first and third Mondays of each month. The sample was designed to account for distributors with different sales volumes, geographic distributions and sources of primary supply. It should be noted that this simple is different from the sample used in prior year surveys.

This report summarizes the results of a survey of home heating oil and propane prices over the 1990/1991 heating season in Michigan. The survey was conducted under a cooperative agreement between the State of Michigan, Michigan Public Service Commission and the US Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and was funded by a grant from EIA. From October 1990 through May 1991, participating dealers/distributions were called and asked for their current residential retail prices of No. 2 home heating oil and propane. This information was then transmitted to the EIA, bi-monthly using an electronic reporting system called Petroleum Data Reporting Option (PEDRO). The survey was conducted using a sample provided by EIA of home heating oil and propane retailers which supply Michigan households. These retailers were contacted the first and third Mondays of each month. The sample was designed to account for distributors with different sales volumes, geographic distributions and sources of primary supply. It should be noted that this simple is different from the sample used in prior year surveys.

The objective of this project is to increase the recoverable heavy oil reserves within sections of the Wilmington Oil Field, near Long Beach, California, through the testing and application of advanced reservoir characterization and thermal production technologies. The hope is that successful application of these technologies will result in their implementation throughout the Wilmington Field and, through technology transfer, will be extended to increase the recoverable oil reserves in other slope and basin clastic (SBC) reservoirs. The existing steamflood in the Tar zone of Fault Block II-A (Tar II-A) has been relatively inefficient because of several producibility problems which are common in SBC reservoirs: inadequate characterization of the heterogeneous turbidite sands, high permeability thief zones, low gravity oil and non-uniform distribution of the remaining oil. This has resulted in poor sweep efficiency, high steam-oil ratios, and early steam breakthrough. Operational problems related to steam breakthrough, high reservoir pressure, and unconsolidated sands have caused premature well and downhole equipment failures. In aggregate, these reservoir and operational constraints have resulted in increased operating costs and decreased recoverable reserves. A suite of advanced reservoir characterization and thermal production technologies are being applied during the project to improve oil recovery and reduce operating costs, including: (1) Development of three-dimensional (3-D) deterministic and stochastic reservoir simulation models--thermal or otherwise--to aid in reservoir management of the steamflood and post-steamflood phases and subsequent development work. (2) Development of computerized 3-D visualizations of the geologic and reservoir simulation models to aid reservoir surveillance and operations. (3) Perform detailed studies of the geochemical interactions between the steam and the formation rock and fluids. (4) Testing and proposed application of a novel alkaline-steam well completion technique for the containment of the unconsolidated formation sands and control of fluid entry and injection profiles. (5) Installation of a 2100 ft, 14 inch insulated, steam line beneath a harbor channel to supply steam to an island location. (6) Testing and proposed application of thermal recovery technologies to increaseoil production and reserves: (a) Performing pilot tests of cyclic steam injection and production on new horizontal wells. (b) Performing pilot tests of hot water-alternating-steam (WAS) drive in the existing steam drive area to improve thermal efficiency. (7) Perform a pilot steamflood with the four horizontal injectors and producers using a pseudo steam-assisted gravity-drainage (SAGD) process. (8) Advanced reservoir management, through computer-aided access to production and geologic data to integrate reservoir characterization, engineering, monitoring and evaluation.

A cover graph shows a glimpse of the future: the world's next offering to civilization. No one knows how much, and just when, great amounts of heavy crude oil resources will be developed. Even less is speculated about bitumen resources. But speculation is not required to reach the conclusion that non-conventional oil must be developed in the Western Hemisphere -- and soon. Considerable data are presented in this issue to reinforce this conclusion. This issues also contains the following: (1) refining netback data series for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore, as of Dec. 9 and Dec. 20, 1988; and (2) ED fuel price/tax series for countries of both the Western and Eastern Hemisphere, Dec. 1988 edition. 9 figures, 11 tables.

The overall objective of this project was to improve the effectiveness of a microbial selective plugging technique of improving oil recovery through the use of polymer floods. More specifically, the intent was to increase the total amount of oil recovered and to reduce the cost per barrel of incremental oil.

The overall objective of this project is to increase heavy oil reserves in slope and basin clastic (SBC) reservoirs through the application of advanced reservoir characterization and thermal production technologies. The project involves improving thermal recovery techniques in the Tar Zone of Fault Blocks II-A and V (Tar II-A and Tar V) of the Wilmington Field in Los Angeles County, near Long Beach, California. A primary objective is to transfer technology which can be applied in other heavy oil formations of the Wilmington Field and other SBC reservoirs, including those under waterflood. The thermal recovery operations in the Tar II-A and Tar V have been relatively inefficient because of several producibility problems which are common in SBC reservoirs. Inadequate characterization of the heterogeneous turbidite sands, high permeability thief zones, low gravity oil, and nonuniform distribution of remaining oil have all contributed to poor sweep efficiency, high steam-oil ratios, and early steam breakthrough. Operational problems related to steam breakthrough, high reservoir pressure, and unconsolidated formation sands have caused premature well and downhole equipment failures. In aggregate, these reservoir and operational constraints have resulted in increased operating costs and decreased recoverable reserves. The advanced technologies to be applied include: (1) Develop three-dimensional (3-D) deterministic and stochastic geologic models. (2) Develop 3-D deterministic and stochastic thermal reservoir simulation models to aid in reservoir management and subsequent development work. (3) Develop computerized 3-D visualizations of the geologic and reservoir simulation models to aid in analysis. (4) Perform detailed study on the geochemical interactions between the steam and the formation rock and fluids. (5) Pilot steam injection and production via four new horizontal wells (2 producers and 2 injectors). (6) Hot water alternating steam (WAS) drive pilot in the existing steam drive area to improve thermal efficiency. (7) Installing an 2400 foot insulated, subsurface harbor channel crossing to supply steam to an island location. (8) Test a novel alkaline steam completion technique to control well sanding problems and fluid entry profiles. (9) Advanced reservoir management through computer-aided access to production and geologic data to integrate reservoir characterization, engineering, monitoring, and evaluation.

This draft: April 9, 2013 Abstract The price of crude oil in the U.S. never exceeded $40 per barrel until mid. Joseph Kennedy II, New York Times, April, 10, 2012. 1 Introduction. The price of crude oil in the U.S price changes? We clarify the effects of speculators on commodity prices. We focus on crude oil, but our

In cooperation with the United States Department of Energy (USDOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA) the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and Energy (DEPE), Office of Energy participated in a program to monitor retail prices of no. 2 heating oil and propane in New Jersey. According to program instructions, we conducted price surveys on a semi-monthly basis to obtain the necessary information from retail fuel merchants and propane dealers identified by the EIA. The period of the surveys was October 7, 1991 to March 16 1992. We submitted data collected as of specified reference dates to the EIA, within two working days of those dates.

This project increased recoverable waterflood reserves in slope and basin reservoirs through improved reservoir characterization and reservoir management. The particular application of this project is in portions of Fault Blocks IV and V of the Wilmington Oil Field, in Long Beach, California, but the approach is widely applicable in slope and basin reservoirs. Transferring technology so that it can be applied in other sections of the Wilmington Field and by operators in other slope and basin reservoirs is a primary component of the project. This project used advanced reservoir characterization tools, including the pulsed acoustic cased-hole logging tool, geologic three-dimensional (3-D) modeling software, and commercially available reservoir management software to identify sands with remaining high oil saturation following waterflood. Production from the identified high oil saturated sands was stimulated by recompleting existing production and injection wells in these sands using conventional means as well as a short radius redrill candidate. Although these reservoirs have been waterflooded over 40 years, researchers have found areas of remaining oil saturation. Areas such as the top sand in the Upper Terminal Zone Fault Block V, the western fault slivers of Upper Terminal Zone Fault Block V, the bottom sands of the Tar Zone Fault Block V, and the eastern edge of Fault Block IV in both the Upper Terminal and Lower Terminal Zones all show significant remaining oil saturation. Each area of interest was uncovered emphasizing a different type of reservoir characterization technique or practice. This was not the original strategy but was necessitated by the different levels of progress in each of the project activities.

During January to May 1986, shut-in production of light oil in Alberta averaged 109,000 barrels per day. The peak month was April with a shut-in of 164,000 barrels per day. The cause of the shut-in is insufficient pipeline delivery capacity. Both the Interprovincial and TransMountain systems have been operating at full capacity since November 1985. The Rangeland system has also been utilized to its capacity in late spring. This paper discusses the history of the Alberta Proration Plan dating from 1950, the operation of the plan during the recent past years, and the resulting effects of an increase in bitumen production on the transport capacity for light oil.

The project involves using advanced reservoir characterization and thermal production technologies to improve thermal recovery techniques and lower operating and capital costs in a slope and basin clastic (SBC) reservoir in the Wilmington field, Los Angeles Co., CA. Through June 2002, project work has been completed on the following activities: data preparation; basic reservoir engineering; developing a deterministic three dimensional (3-D) geologic model, a 3-D deterministic reservoir simulation model and a rock-log model; well drilling and completions; and surface facilities on the Fault Block II-A Tar Zone (Tar II-A). Work is continuing on research to understand the geochemistry and process regarding the sand consolidation well completion technique, final reservoir tracer work, operational work and research studies to prevent thermal-related formation compaction in the Tar II-A steamflood area, and operational work on the Tar V post-steamflood pilot and Tar II-A post-steamflood projects. During the Third Quarter 2002, the project team essentially completed implementing the accelerated oil recovery and reservoir cooling plan for the Tar II-A post-steamflood project developed in March 2002 and is proceeding with additional related work. The project team has completed developing laboratory research procedures to analyze the sand consolidation well completion technique and will initiate work in the fourth quarter. The Tar V pilot steamflood project terminated hot water injection and converted to post-steamflood cold water injection on April 19, 2002. Proposals have been approved to repair two sand consolidated horizontal wells that sanded up, Tar II-A well UP-955 and Tar V well J-205, with gravel-packed inner liner jobs to be performed next quarter. Other well work to be performed next quarter is to convert well L-337 to a Tar V water injector and to recomplete vertical well A-194 as a Tar V interior steamflood pattern producer. Plans have been approved to drill and complete well A-605 in Tar V in the first quarter 2003. Plans have been approved to update the Tar II-A 3-D deterministic reservoir simulation model and run sensitivity cases to evaluate the accelerated oil recovery and reservoir cooling plan. The Tar II-A post-steamflood operation started in February 1999 and steam chest fillup occurred in September-October 1999. The targeted reservoir pressures in the ''T'' and ''D'' sands are maintained at 90 {+-} 5% hydrostatic levels by controlling water injection and gross fluid production and through the bimonthly pressure monitoring program enacted at the start of the post-steamflood phase. Well work related to the Tar II-A accelerated oil recovery and reservoir cooling plan began in March 2002 with oil production increasing from 1009 BOPD in the first quarter to 1145 BOPD in the third quarter. Reservoir pressures have been increased during the quarter from 88% to 91% hydrostatic levels in the ''T'' sands and from 91% to 94% hydrostatic levels in the ''D'' sands. Well work during the quarter is described in the Reservoir Management section. The post-steamflood production performance in the Tar V pilot project has been below projections because of wellbore mechanical limitations and the loss of a horizontal producer a second time to sand inflow that are being addressed in the fourth quarter. As the fluid production temperatures exceeded 350 F, our self-imposed temperature limit, the pilot steamflood was converted to a hot waterflood project in June 2001 and converted to cold water injection on April 19, 2002.

The device and method are provided to increase anhydrosugars yield during pyrolysis of biomass. This increase is achieved by injection of a liquid or gas into the vapor stream of any pyrolysis reactor prior to the reactor condensers. A second feature of our technology is the utilization of sonication, microwave excitation, or shear mixing of the biomass to increase the acid catalyst rate for demineralization or removal of hemicellulose prior to pyrolysis. The increased reactivity of these treatments reduces reaction time as well as the required amount of catalyst to less than half of that otherwise required. A fractional condensation system employed by our pyrolysis reactor is another feature of our technology. This system condenses bio-oil pyrolysis vapors to various desired fractions by differential temperature manipulation of individual condensers comprising a condenser chain.

The world oil market is regarded by many as a puzzle. Why are oilprices so volatile? What is OPEC and what does OPEC do? Where are oilprices headed in the long run? Is “peak oil” a genuine concern? Why did oilprices ...

This analysis was updated for Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO): Impact of Limitations on Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Federal Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). The OCS is estimated to contain substantial resources of crude oil and natural gas; however, some areas of the OCS are subject to drilling restrictions. With energy prices rising over the past several years, there has been increased interest in the development of more domestic oil and natural gas supply, including OCS resources. In the past, federal efforts to encourage exploration and development activities in the deep waters of the OCS have been limited primarily to regulations that would reduce royalty payments by lease holders. More recently, the states of Alaska and Virginia have asked the federal government to consider leasing in areas off their coastlines that are off limits as a result of actions by the President or Congress. In response, the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the U.S. Department of the Interior has included in its proposed 5-year leasing plan for 2007-2012 sales of one lease in the Mid-Atlantic area off the coastline of Virginia and two leases in the North Aleutian Basin area of Alaska. Development in both areas still would require lifting of the current ban on drilling.

This project is intended to increase recoverable waterflood reserves in slope and basin reservoirs through improved reservoir characterization and reservoir management. The particular application of this project is in portions of Fault Blocks IV and V of the Wilmington Oil Field, in Long Beach, California, but the approach is widely applicable in slope and basin reservoirs. Transferring technology so that it can be applied in other sections of the Wilmington Field and by operators in other slope and basin reservoirs is a primary component of the project.

The sharp increases in crude oilprices in the 1970`s unleashed a gusher of economic and policy analyses concerning energy security. A consensus emerged concerning the desirability of building and using a large stock of oil to cushion the effects of a sudden loss of oil supply. The author examines the validity of this large stock of oil considering changes in the oil market and whether the oil holdings of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve should be privatized. 12 refs.

­ unbridled population growth, oilprice fluctuations, importation policies, water availability and political prices indicating the importance of investment in irrigation to increase the food yield and thus, address problems in Africa, however, it is recommended to increase government investment on local agriculture

This project was designed to demonstrate that a microbially enhanced oil recovery process (MEOR), developed in part under DOE Contract No. DE-AC22-90BC14665, will increaseoil recovery from fluvial dominated deltaic oil reservoirs. The process involves stimulating the in-situ indigenous microbial population in the reservoir to grow in the more permeable zones, thus diverting flow to other areas of the reservoir, thereby increasing the effectiveness of the waterflood. This five and a half year project is divided into three phases, Phase I, Planning and Analysis (9 months), Phase II, Implementation (45 months), and Phase III, Technology Transfer (12 months). Phase I was completed and reported in the first annual report. This fifth annual report covers the completion of Phase II and the first six months of Phase III.

Waste oils offer a tremendous recycling potential. An important, dwindling natural resource of great economic and industrial value, oil products are a cornerstone of our modern industrial society. Petroleum is processed into a wide variety of products: gasoline, fuel oil, diesel oil, synthetic rubber, solvents, pesticides, synthetic fibres, lubricating oil, drugs and many more ' (see Figure 1 1. The boilers of Amercian industries presently consume about 40 % of the used lubricating oils collected. In Ontario, the percentage varies from 20 to 30%. Road oiling is the other major use of collected waste oils. Five to seven million gallons (50-70 % of the waste oil col1ected)is spread on dusty Ontario roads each summer. The practice is both a wasteful use of a dwindling resource and an environmental hazard. The waste oil, with its load of heavy metals, particularly lead, additives including dangerous polynuclear aromatics and PCBs, is carried into the natural environment by runoff and dust to contaminate soils and water courses.2 The largest portion of used oils is never collected, but disappears into sewers, landfill sites and backyards. In Ontario alone, approximately 22 million gallons of potentially recyclable lube oil simply vanish each year. While oil recycling has ad-114 Oil

This project used advanced reservoir characterization tools, including the pulsed acoustic cased-hole logging tool, geologic three-dimensional (3-D) modeling software, and commercially available reservoir management software to identify sands with remaining high oil saturation following waterflood. Production from the identified high oil saturated sands was stimulated by recompleting existing production and injection wells in these sands using conventional means as well as a short radius redrill candidate.

Oil companies have traditionally favored vertical integration, controlling the flow of oil from the drilling rig through refineries to the gasoline pump. The development of the downstream infrastructure has largely been driven by the retail market, with other fuels often treated as {open_quotes}marginal{close_quotes} businesses that leverage the retail distribution infrastructure. High-margin niche business such as lubricants and bitumen exist, but their volumes are typically small compared to the retail market. Other high-volume businesses such as aviation and heating fuels are closely tied to traded markets and generally have small market margins. Price levels at the retail site are crucial to the profitability of the downstream business. Price levels at European retail stations have historically been high when compared with North American prices, owing to government taxation. Despite the efforts of the oil companies to educate the consumer on what is the real cause of high prices, the oil majors are blamed when fuel prices fall, the consumer often feels as though lower prices had to be forced on the oil companies. Therefore, European consumers are more price sensitive than consumers elsewhere, and in markets which are deregulated on price, oil companies are losing market share to hypermarkets and supermarkets. In the U.S., increases in fuel tax levels are likely to result in a heightened price awareness for the average American, increasing the probability that hypermarkets will also enter the U.S fuels market.

One important effect of price shocks in the United States has been increased political attention paid to the structure and performance of oil and natural gas markets, along with some governmental support for energy conservation. This paper describes how price changes helped lead the emergence of a political agenda accompanied by several interventions, as revealed through Granger causality tests on change in the legislative agenda.

This project is a field demonstration of the ability of in-situ indigenous microorganisms in the North Blowhorn Creek Oil Field to reduce the flow of injection water in the more permeable zones of the reservoir, thereby diverting flow to other areas thus increasing the efficiency of the waterflood. The project is divided into three phases-Planning and Analysis (9 months), Implementation (45 months), and Technology Transfer (12 months). This report covers the fourth year of work on the project. During Phase I, cores were obtained from a newly drilled well and employed in laboratory core flood experiments to formulate the schedule and amounts of nutrients to be used in the field demonstration. The field demonstration involves injecting potassium nitrate, sodium dihydrogen phosphate, and in some cases molasses, into four injector wells (Test) and monitoring the performance of surrounding producer wells. For comparative purposes, the producer wells surrounding four untreated injector wells (Control) also were monitored. Twenty-two months after the injection of nutrients into the reservoir began, three wells were drilled and cores taken therefrom were analyzed. Nitrate ions were found in cores from all three wells and cores from two of these wells also contained phosphate ions- thus demonstrating that the injected nutrients were being distributed widely in the reservoir. Microorganisms were shown to be present in cores from all three wells by cultural methods and by electron microscopy. In some sections of the cores, the number of microbes was large. Oil production volumes and water:oil ratios (WOR) of produced fluids have shown clearly that the MEOR treatment being demonstrated in this project is improving oil recovery. Of the 15 producer wells in the test patterns, seven have responded positively to the injection of microbial nutrients into the reservoir, while all eight of the producer wells only in control patterns have continued their natural decline in oil production, although one well did have some improvement in oil production due to increased water injection into a nearby injector well. Two of the wells have been abandoned because of uneconomical production. In light of these positive findings and with DOE?s approval, the scope of the field demonstration was expanded in July 1997 to include six new injector wells. Two of these wells were previously control injectors while the other four injectors were not included in the original program. Of interest has been the performance of two wells in what was formerly a control pattern. Since the injector in this pattern (formerly Control Pattern 2) began receiving nutrients, two of the wells in the pattern have shown improved oil production for the last three months. While it would be premature to definitely characterize these two wells as yielding a positive response, these early results are certainly encouraging. Of special significance is the fact that over 7953 m (50,022 barrels) of incremental oil have been 3 recovered as a result of the MEOR treatment. Further, calculations show that the economic life of the field will be extended until July 2004 instead of a previously anticipated closure in Dec. 2002. This finding is particularly impressive in view of the fact that only four of the twenty injector wells in the field were treated during the first 30 months of the project. Preliminary indications are that byincreasing the number of injector wells pumping microbial nutrients into the reservoir from four to ten, more oil will be recovered and the economic life of the field will be extended even further. It should be emphasized that the above calculations do not take into account the oil being recovered from the five new wells that were drilled during the course of this project.

The air transportation system is a vital infrastructure that enables economic growth and provides significant social benefits. Future increases and volatility in crude oilprices, as well as environmental charges, are ...

The overall objective of this project was to increase heavy oil reserves in slope and basin clastic (SBC) reservoirs through the application of advanced reservoir characterization and thermal production technologies. The project involved improving thermal recovery techniques in the Tar Zone of Fault Blocks II-A and V (Tar II-A and Tar V) of the Wilmington Field in Los Angeles County, near Long Beach, California. A primary objective has been to transfer technology that can be applied in other heavy oil formations of the Wilmington Field and other SBC reservoirs, including those under waterflood. The first budget period addressed several producibility problems in the Tar II-A and Tar V thermal recovery operations that are common in SBC reservoirs. A few of the advanced technologies developed include a three-dimensional (3-D) deterministic geologic model, a 3-D deterministic thermal reservoir simulation model to aid in reservoir management and subsequent post-steamflood development work, and a detailed study on the geochemical interactions between the steam and the formation rocks and fluids. State of the art operational work included drilling and performing a pilot steam injection and production project via four new horizontal wells (2 producers and 2 injectors), implementing a hot water alternating steam (WAS) drive pilot in the existing steamflood area to improve thermal efficiency, installing a 2400-foot insulated, subsurface harbor channel crossing to supply steam to an island location, testing a novel alkaline steam completion technique to control well sanding problems, and starting on an advanced reservoir management system through computer-aided access to production and geologic data to integrate reservoir characterization, engineering, monitoring, and evaluation. The second budget period phase (BP2) continued to implement state-of-the-art operational work to optimize thermal recovery processes, improve well drilling and completion practices, and evaluate the geomechanical characteristics of the producing formations. The objectives were to further improve reservoir characterization of the heterogeneous turbidite sands, test the proficiency of the three-dimensional geologic and thermal reservoir simulation models, identify the high permeability thief zones to reduce water breakthrough and cycling, and analyze the nonuniform distribution of the remaining oil in place. This work resulted in the redevelopment of the Tar II-A and Tar V post-steamflood projects by drilling several new wells and converting idle wells to improve injection sweep efficiency and more effectively drain the remaining oil reserves. Reservoir management work included reducing water cuts, maintaining or increasingoil production, and evaluating and minimizing further thermal-related formation compaction. The BP2 project utilized all the tools and knowledge gained throughout the DOE project to maximize recovery of the oil in place.

The purpose of this project is to demonstrate reduction of sulfide contamination, as well as possible improvement of production in oil and gas production systems. This will be accomplished by application of the BioCompetitive Exclusion (BCX) process developed by GMT. A broad spectrum of well types and geographical locations is anticipated. The BCX process is designed to manipulate indigenous reservoir bacteria with the addition of synergistic inorganic chemical formulae. These treatments will stimulate growth of beneficial microbes, while suppressing metabolic activity of sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB), the primary source of harmful sulfide production. Progress in 7 oil and gas fields is summarized.

This report covers the work performed in the various physicochemical factors for the improvement of oil recovery efficiency. In this context the following general areas were studied: (1) The understanding of vapor-liquid flows in porous media, including processes in steam injection; (2) The effect of reservoir heterogeneity in a variety of foams, from pore scale to macroscopic scale; (3) The flow properties of additives for improvement of recovery efficiency, particularly foams and other non-Newtonian fluids; and (4) The development of optimization methods to maximize various measures of oil recovery.

This report covers work performed in the area related to the physicochemical factors for the improvement of the oil recovery efficiency in steamfloods. In this context, three general areas are studied: (1) The understanding of vapor-liquid flow in porous media, whether the flow is internal (boiling), external (steam injection) or countercurrent (as in vertical heat pipes). (2) The effect of reservoir heterogeneity, particularly as it regards fractured systems and long and narrow reservoirs (which are typical of oil reservoirs). (3) The flow properties of additives for the improvement of recovery efficiency, in particular the properties of foams.

............................................................................................................................... 12 OilPrice Forecast Range. The price of crude oil was $25 a barrel in January of 2000. In July 2008 it averaged $127, even approachingSixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction

Problems in the establishment of natural gas prices are outlined. The tropics discussed include: US average natural gas prices; US average natural gas prices; US average fuel oilprices; and US average electric utility natural gas T and D margin in dollars Mcf.

Thermal methods, and particularly steam injection, are currently recognized as the most promising for the efficient recovery of heavy oil. Despite significant progress, however, important technical issues remain open. Specifically, still inadequate is our knowledge of the complex interaction between porous media and the various fluids of thermal recovery (steam, water, heavy oil, gases, and chemicals). While, the interplay of heat transfer and fluid flow with pore- and macro-scale heterogeneity is largely unexplored. The objectives of this contract are to continue previous work and to carry out new fundamental studies in the following areas of interest to thermal recovery: displacement and flow properties of fluids involving phase change (condensation-evaporation) in porous media; flow properties of mobility control fluids (such as foam); and the effect of reservoir heterogeneity on thermal recovery. The specific projects are motivated by and address the need to improve heavy oil recovery from typical reservoirs as well as less conventional fractured reservoirs producing from vertical or horizontal wells. Accomplishments for this period are presented.

In recent years, the price of oil has driven large fluctuations in the price of diesel fuel, which is an important cost component in freight logistics. This thesis explores the impact of fuel price volatility on supply ...

This dissertation investigates the pricing behaviors of two major energy commodities, U.S. natural gas and crude oil, using times series models. It examines the relationships between U.S. natural gas price variations and changes in market...

This dissertation investigates the pricing behaviors of two major energy commodities, U.S. natural gas and crude oil, using times series models. It examines the relationships between U.S. natural gas price variations and changes in market...

the market calls for. PULPWOOD: Pulpwood prices depend on the global demand for paper products of amajor pulp and paper mill in New York. FIREWOOD: Demand for firewood in New England depends on the price of fossil fuels,particularly No.2fuel oil. (The price of firewood rises as fuel oilprices in

The primary objective of this project is to enhance domestic petroleum production by field demonstration and technology transfer of an advanced- oil-recovery technology in the Paradox basin, southeastern Utah. If this project can demonstrate technical and economic feasibility, the technique can be applied to approximately 100 additional small fields in the Paradox basin alone, and result in increased recovery of 150 to 200 million barrels (23,850,000-31,800,000 m3) of oil. This project is designed to characterize five shallow-shelf carbonate reservoirs in the Pennsylvanian (Desmoinesian) Paradox Formation and choose the best candidate for a pilot demonstration project for either a waterflood or carbon-dioxide-(CO2-) miscible flood project. The field demonstration, monitoring of field performance, and associated validation activities will take place within the Navajo Nation, San Juan County, Utah.

The primary objective of this project was to enhance domestic petroleum production by field demonstration and technology transfer of an advanced-oil-recovery technology in the Paradox Basin, southeastern Utah. If this project can demonstrate technical and economic feasibility, the technique can be applied to approximately 100 additional small fields in the Paradox Basin alone, and result in increased recovery of 150 to 200 million barrels (23,850,000-31,800,000 m3) of oil. This project was designed to characterize five shallow-shelf carbonate reservoirs in the Pennsylvanian (Desmoinesian) Paradox Formation and choose the best candidate for a pilot demonstration project for either a waterflood or carbon-dioxide-(CO2-) miscible flood project. The field demonstration, monitoring of field performance, and associated validation activities will take place within the Navajo Nation, San Juan County, Utah.

The primary objective of this project is to enhance domestic petroleum production by demonstration and technology transfer of an advanced oil recovery technology in the Paradox basin, southeastern Utah. If this project can demonstrate technical and economic feasibility, the technique can be applied to about 100 additional small fields in the Paradox basin alone, and result in increased recovery of 150 to 200 million barrels of oil. This project is designed to characterize five shallow-shelf carbonate reservoirs in the Pennsylvanian (Desmoinesian) Paradox Formation and choose the best candidate for a pilot demonstration project for either a waterflood or carbon dioxide-(CO -) 2 flood project. The field demonstration, monitoring of field performance, and associated validation activities will take place in the Paradox basin within the Navajo Nation. Two activities continued this quarter as part of the geological and reservoir characterization of productive carbonate buildups in the Paradox basin: (1) diagenetic characterization of project field reservoirs, and (2) technology transfer.

The Paradox Basin of Utah, Colorado, and Arizona contains nearly 100 small oil fields producing from shallow-shelf carbonate buildups or mounds within the Desert Creek zone of the Pennsylvanian (Desmoinesian) Paradox Formation. These fields typically have one to four wells with primary production ranging from 700,000 to 2,000,000 barrels (111,300-318,000 m{sup 3}) of oil per field at a 15 to 20 percent recovery rate. Five fields in southeastern Utah were evaluated for waterflood or carbon-dioxide (CO{sub 2})-miscible flood projects based upon geological characterization and reservoir modeling. Geological characterization on a local scale focused on reservoir heterogeneity, quality, and lateral continuity as well as possible compartmentalization within each of the five project fields. The Desert Creek zone includes three generalized facies belts: (1) open-marine, (2) shallow-shelf and shelf-margin, and (3) intra-shelf, salinity-restricted facies. These deposits have modern analogs near the coasts of the Bahamas, Florida, and Australia, respectively, and outcrop analogs along the San Juan River of southeastern Utah. The analogs display reservoir heterogeneity, flow barriers and baffles, and lithofacies geometry observed in the fields; thus, these properties were incorporated in the reservoir simulation models. Productive carbonate buildups consist of three types: (1) phylloid algal, (2) coralline algal, and (3) bryozoan. Phylloid-algal buildups have a mound-core interval and a supra-mound interval. Hydrocarbons are stratigraphically trapped in porous and permeable lithotypes within the mound-core intervals of the lower part of the buildups and the more heterogeneous supramound intervals. To adequately represent the observed spatial heterogeneities in reservoir properties, the phylloid-algal bafflestones of the mound-core interval and the dolomites of the overlying supra-mound interval were subdivided into ten architecturally distinct lithotypes, each of which exhibits a characteristic set of reservoir properties obtained from outcrop analogs, cores, and geophysical logs. The Anasazi and Runway fields were selected for geostatistical modeling and reservoir compositional simulations. Models and simulations incorporated variations in carbonate lithotypes, porosity, and permeability to accurately predict reservoir responses. History matches tied previous production and reservoir pressure histories so that future reservoir performances could be confidently predicted. The simulation studies showed that despite most of the production being from the mound-core intervals, there were no corresponding decreases in the oil in place in these intervals. This behavior indicates gravity drainage of oil from the supra-mound intervals into the lower mound-core intervals from which the producing wells' major share of production arises. The key to increasing ultimate recovery from these fields (and similar fields in the basin) is to design either waterflood or CO{sub 2}-miscible flood projects capable of forcing oil from high-storage-capacity but low-recovery supra-mound units into the high-recovery mound-core units. Simulation of Anasazi field shows that a CO{sub 2} flood is technically superior to a waterflood and economically feasible. For Anasazi field, an optimized CO{sub 2} flood is predicted to recover a total 4.21 million barrels (0.67 million m3) of oil representing in excess of 89 percent of the original oil in place. For Runway field, the best CO{sub 2} flood is predicted to recover a total of 2.4 million barrels (0.38 million m3) of oil representing 71 percent of the original oil in place. If the CO{sub 2} flood performed as predicted, it is a financially robust process for increasing the reserves in the many small fields in the Paradox Basin. The results can be applied to other fields in the Rocky Mountain region, the Michigan and Illinois Basins, and the Midcontinent.

An increasingly mobile US Navy surface fleet and oilprice uncertainty contrast with the Navy's desire to lower the amount of money spent purchasing fuel. Operational restrictions limiting fuel use are temporary and cannot ...

This study examines the impact of oilprice shocks on output fluctuations of several oil-exporting economies. In most studies of business cycles, the role of oilprice is ignored; the few studies that use oilprice as one of the variables in the system focus on modeling oil-importing economies. The vector autoregression (VAR) technique is used to consider the cases of Norway, Nigeria, and Mexico. Both atheoretical and structural' VARs are estimated to determine the importance of oilprice impulses on output variations. The study reports two types of results: variance decomposition and impulse response functions, with particular emphasis on the issues of stationarity and co-integration among the series. The empirical results suggest that shocks to oilprice are important in explaining output variations. In most cases, shocks to oilprice are shown to explain more than 20% of the forecast variance of output over a 40-quarter horizon.

This is the first quarterly technical progress report for the project. Although the contract was awarded on March 30, 1995 and Pre-Award Approval was given on January 26, 1995, the partners of this project initiated work on October 1, 1994. As such, this progress report summarizes the work performed from project inception. The production and injection data, reservoir engineering data, and digitized and normalized log data were all completed sufficiently by the end of the quarter to start work on the basic reservoir engineering and geologic stochastic models. Basic reservoir engineering analysis began June 1 and will continue to March, 1996. Design work for the 5 observation/core holes, oil finger printing of the cored oil sands, and tracers surveys began in January, 1995. The wells will be drilled from July--August, 1995 and tracer injection work is projected to start in October, 1995. A preliminary deterministic 3-D geologic model was completed in June which is sufficient to start work on the stochastic 3-D geologic model. The four proposed horizontal wells (two injectors and two producers) have been designed, equipment has been ordered, and the wells will be drilled from mid-August through September. Four existing steam injection wells were converted to hot water injection in March, 1995. Initial rates were kept low to minimize operational problems. Injection rates will be increased significantly in July.

Project work was initiated by Geo-Microbial Technologies, Inc. (GMT), Ochelata, Oklahoma for Contract Number DE-FG01-97EE15659 on June 18, 1997. The purpose of this project is to demonstrate reduction of sulfide contamination, as well as possible improvement of production in oil and gas production systems. This will be accomplished by application of the BioCompetitive Exclusion (BCX) process developed by GMT. A broad spectrum of well types and geographical locations is anticipated. The BCX process is designed to manipulate indigenous reservoir bacteria with the addition of synergistic inorganic chemical formulae. These treatments will stimulate growth of beneficial microbes, while suppressing metabolic activity of sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB), the primary source of harmful sulfide production.

This project was intended to increase recoverable waterflood reserves in slope and basin reservoirs through improved reservoir characterization and reservoir management. The particular application of this project is in portions of Fault Blocks IV and V of the Wilmington Oil Field, in Long Beach, California, but the approach is widely applicable in slope and basin reservoirs, transferring technology so that it can be applied in other sections of the Wilmington field and by operators in other slope and basin reservoirs is a primary component of the project.

Increasing environmental concerns over greenhouse gas emissions, depleting petroleum reserves and rising oilprices has stimulated interest on biofuels production from biomass sources. This study explored on biofuels production from pyrolysis...

Market share OPEC lost in defending higher prices from 1979-1985 is being steadily regained and is projected to exceed 50% by 2000. World oil markets are likely to be as vulnerable to monopoly influence as they were 20 years ago, as OPEC regains lost market share. The U.S. economy appears to be as exposed as it was in the early 1970s to losses from monopoly oilpricing. A simulated 2-year supply reduction in 2005-6 boosts OPEC revenues by roughly half a trillion dollars and costs the U.S. economy an approximately equal amount. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve appears to be of little benefit against such a determined, multi-year supply curtailment either in reducing OPEC revenues or protecting the U.S. economy. Increasing the price elasticity of oil demand and supply in the U.S. and the rest of the world, however, would be an effective strategy.

. Figure C-1 illustrates this for world oilprices, and similar patterns apply to natural gas. The last. Figure C-1 World OilPrices Have Been Following the 1991 Plan Low Forecast 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25 and earlier Council plans, natural gas prices were dependent on the assumptions about world oilprices

The authors present an analysis of the year 1988 in the Canadian oil and gas industry. With budgets underpinned by price expectations of $17/bbl to $18/bbl for WTI crude, optimism pervaded industry at the beginning of the year. Budget plans called for total spending of some C$7.6 billion, an increase of 25% over the C$6.1 invested in 1987. Drilling plans would have made 1988 the fourth best year on record with total well completions close to the 9,000-well mark. The year started strongly, as prices performed close to expectations. When prices began to soften and no reversal was apparent, corporate expenditures began to be adjusted in the second half.

We examine the impact of market volatility and increased fiscal take on risk in strategic natural resource projects. An increase in 2006 UK oilfield taxation is used as a natural experiment for assessing the impact of a ...

This paper reports that prospects of Angola, free of political complications, are certain to bring a flurry of interest from oil firms and could mean an influx of foreign capital. Licensing will be under production-sharing terms, but incentives may be offered due to increased risks inherent in deeper water. Long term security and stability remain uncertain. In addition to Unita and previously communist MPLA, new factions from 16 years of civil war are gaining support and increasing possibilities for violence. Oil firms consider production-sharing terms high and current price cap clauses keep them from realizing benefits from priceincreases after contracts are signed. However, geology and exploration successes have overshadowed concerns.

The primary objective of this project is to enhance domestic petroleum production by demonstration and technology transfer of an advanced oil recovery technology in the Paradox basin, southeastern Utah. If this project can demonstrate technical and economic feasibility, the technique can be applied to approximately 100 additional small fields in the Paradox basin alone, and result in increased recovery of 150 to 200 million barrels of oil. This project is designed to characterize five shallow-shelf carbonate reservoirs in the Pennsylvanian (Desmoinesian) Paradox Formation and choose the best candidate for a pilot demonstration project for either a waterflood or carbon dioxide- (CO{sub 2}-) flood project. The field demonstration, monitoring of field performance, and associated validation activities will take place in the Paradox basin within the Navajo Nation. The results of this project will be transferred to industry and other researchers through a petroleum extension service, creation of digital databases for distribution, technical workshops and seminars, field trips, technical presentations at national and regional professional meetings, and publication in newsletters and various technical or trade journals.

The primary objective of this project is to enhance domestic petroleum production by demonstration and technology transfer of an advanced oil recovery technology in the Paradox basin, southeastern Utah. If this project can demonstrate technical and economic feasibility, the technique can be applied to about 100 additional small fields in the Paradox basin alone, and result in increased recovery of 150 to 200 million bbl of oil. This project is designed to characterize five shallow-shelf carbonate reservoirs in the Pennsylvanian (Desmoinesian) Paradox Formation and choose the best candidate for a pilot demonstration project for either a waterflood or carbon dioxide-(CO-) flood 2 project. The field demonstration, monitoring of field performance, and associated validation activities will take place in the Paradox basin within the Navajo Nation. The results of this project will be transferred to industry and other researchers through a petroleum extension service, creation of digital databases for distribution, technical workshops and seminars, field trips, technical presentations at national and regional professional meetings, and publication in newsletters and various technical or trade journals.

This paper reports that within the past 18 months, the Nigerian Ministry of Petroleum Resources has moved aggressively to increase investment in known producing areas and stimulate exploration in frontier regions in order to define and expand the country's reserve base for the start of the 21st century. At industry seminars held in November and December 1991 in Houston, London, and Lagos, the Ministry in association with TGSI-Mabon Geophysical Co. reviewed the Nigerian political and economic climate, recent industry development and leasing activity, deep-water geology and exploration potential, and the probable areas' terms and conditions for a new bidding round to be announced in early 1992.

The objective of this project is to augment the National Reservoir Database (TORIS database), to increase our understanding of geologic heterogeneities that affect the recoveries of oil and gas from carbonate reservoirs in the State of Alabama, and to identify resources that are producible at moderate cost. This objective will be achieved through detailed geological, geostatistical, and engineering characterization of typical Jurassic Smackover Formation hydrocarbon, and engineering characterization of typical Jurassic Smackover Formation hydrocarbon reservoirs in selected productive fields in the state of Alabama. The results of these studies will be used to develop and test mathematical models for prediction of the effects of reservoir heterogeneities in hydrocarbon production. Work to date has focused on completion of Subtasks 1, 2, and 3 of this project. Work on Subtask 4 began in this quarter, and substantial additional work has been accomplished on Subtask 2. Subtask 1 included the survey and tabulation of available reservoir engineering and geological data. Subtask 2 comprises the geologic and engineering characterization of smackover reservoir lithofacies. Subtask 3 includes the geologic modeling of reservoir heterogeneities. Subtask 4 includes the development of reservoir exploitation methodologies for strategic infill drilling. 1 fig.

in Borneo under threat of conversion to palm oil plantations could be more profitable left standing threat of being converted to oil palm plantations. "They are not meant to be clearing forest for palm oil development. It's pretty clear that forests are being felled for oil palm," said Venter, a conservation

California is unique in the United States because it has the largest heavy oil (10{degrees} to 20{degrees}API gravity) resource, estimated to be in excess of 40 billion barrels. Of the current 941,543 barrels/day of oil produced in California (14% of the U.S. total), 70% or 625,312 barrels/day is heavy oil. Heavy oil constituted only 20% of California`s oil production in the early 1940s, but development of thermal oil production technology in the 1960s allowed the heavy industry to grow and prosper to the point where by the mid-1980s, heavy oil constituted 70% of the state`s oil production. Similar to the rest of the United States, light oil production in the Los Angeles Basin, Coastal Region, and San Joaquin Valley peaked and then declined at different times throughout the past 30 years. Unlike other states, California developed a heavy oil industry that replaced declining light oil production and increased the states total oil production, despite low heavy oilprices, stringent environmental regulations and long and costly delays in developing known oil resources. California`s deep conversion refineries process the nation`s highest sulfur, lowest API gravity crude to make the cleanest transportation fuels available. More efficient vehicles burning cleaner reformulated fuels have significantly reduced the level of ozone precursors (the main contributor to California`s air pollution) and have improved air quality over the last 20 years. In a state where major oil companies dominate, the infrastructure is highly dependent on the 60% of ANS production being refined in California, and California`s own oil production. When this oil is combined with the small volume of imported crude, a local surplus of marketed oil exists that inhibits exploitation of California`s heavy oil resources. As ANS production declines, or if the export restrictions on ANS sales are lifted, a window of opportunity develops for increased heavy oil production.

Timely observation on prices of gasoline at the wholesale and retail level by geographical area can serve several purposes: (1) to facilitate the monitoring of compliance with controls on distributor margins; (2) to indicate changes in the competitive structure of the distribution system; (3) to measure the incidence of changes in crude oil and refiner costs on retail prices by grade of gasoline, by type of retail outlet, and by geographic area; (4) to identify anomalies in the retail pricing structure that may create incentives for misfueling; and (5) to provide detailed time series data for use in evaluating conservation response to price changes. In order to provide the needed data for these purposes, the following detail on gasoline prices and characteristics of the sampling procedure appear to be appropriate: (1) monthly sample observations on wholesale and retail prices by gasoline grade and type of wholesale or retail dealer, together with volume weights; (2) sample size sufficient to provide detail by state and large cities; (3) responses to be tabulated and reports provided within 30 days after date of observation; and (4) a quick response sampling procedure that can provide weekly data, at least at the national level, when needed in time of rapidly changing prices. Price detail by state is suggested due to its significance for administrative purposes and since gasoline consumption data are estimated by state from other sources. Price detail for large cities are suggested in view of their relevancy as problem areas for vehicle emissions, reflecting one of the analytical uses of the data. In this report, current reporting systems and data on gasoline prices are reviewed and evaluated in terms of the needs outlined above. Recommendations are made for ways to fill the gaps in existing data systems to meet these needs.

The Bachaquero-01 reservoir of the Lagunillas field is located in the eastern part of the Maracaibo Lake, Venezuela. The field is operated by the national oil company of Venezuela, PDVSA (Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A.). The Bachaquero-01 heavy oil...

This report is one of a series of publications assessing the feasibility of increasing domestic heavy oil production and is part of a study being conducted for the US Department of Energy. This report summarizes trends in oil production and refining in Canada. Heavy oil (10{degrees} to 20{degrees} API gravity) production in California has increased from 20% of the state's total oil production in the early 1940s to 70% in the late 1980s. In each of the three principal petroleum producing districts (Los Angeles Basin, Coastal Basin, and San Joaquin Valley) oil production has peaked then declined at different times throughout the past 30 years. Thermal production of heavy oil has contributed to making California the largest producer of oil by enhanced oil recovery processes in spite of low oilprices for heavy oil and stringent environmental regulation. Opening of Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 1, Elk Hills (CA) field in 1976, brought about a major new source of light oil at a time when light oil production had greatly declined. Although California is a major petroleum-consuming state, in 1989 the state used 13.3 billion gallons of gasoline or 11.5% of US demand but it contributed substantially to the Nation's energy production and refining capability. California is the recipient and refines most of Alaska's 1.7 million barrel per day oil production. With California production, Alaskan oil, and imports brought into California for refining, California has an excess of oil and refined products and is a net exporter to other states. The local surplus of oil inhibits exploitation of California heavy oil resources even though the heavy oil resources exist. Transportation, refining, and competition in the market limit full development of California heavy oil resources.

This report is one of a series of publications assessing the feasibility of increasing domestic heavy oil production and is part of a study being conducted for the US Department of Energy. This report summarizes trends in oil production and refining in Canada. Heavy oil (10{degrees} to 20{degrees} API gravity) production in California has increased from 20% of the state`s total oil production in the early 1940s to 70% in the late 1980s. In each of the three principal petroleum producing districts (Los Angeles Basin, Coastal Basin, and San Joaquin Valley) oil production has peaked then declined at different times throughout the past 30 years. Thermal production of heavy oil has contributed to making California the largest producer of oil by enhanced oil recovery processes in spite of low oilprices for heavy oil and stringent environmental regulation. Opening of Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 1, Elk Hills (CA) field in 1976, brought about a major new source of light oil at a time when light oil production had greatly declined. Although California is a major petroleum-consuming state, in 1989 the state used 13.3 billion gallons of gasoline or 11.5% of US demand but it contributed substantially to the Nation`s energy production and refining capability. California is the recipient and refines most of Alaska`s 1.7 million barrel per day oil production. With California production, Alaskan oil, and imports brought into California for refining, California has an excess of oil and refined products and is a net exporter to other states. The local surplus of oil inhibits exploitation of California heavy oil resources even though the heavy oil resources exist. Transportation, refining, and competition in the market limit full development of California heavy oil resources.

of crude oil, gasoline, corn, and ethanol prices, as well as, the relative foreign exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and producer price indexes for food manufacturing and fuel products on domestic food prices are examined. Because the data series are non...

of crude oil, gasoline, corn, and ethanol prices, as well as, the relative foreign exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and producer price indexes for food manufacturing and fuel products on domestic food prices are examined. Because the data series are non...

Abstract: Since the oil crises of the 1970s there has been strong interest in the question of how oil production shortfalls caused by wars and other exogenous political events in OPEC countries affect oilprices, U.S. real GDP growth and U.S. CPI inflation. This study focuses on the modern OPEC period since 1973. The results differ from the conventional wisdom along a number of dimensions. First, it is shown that under reasonable assumptions the timing, magnitude and even the sign of exogenous oil supply shocks may differ greatly from current state-of-the-art estimates. Second, the common view that the case for the exogeneity of at least the major oilprice shocks is strong is supported by the data for the 1980/81 and 1990/91 oilprice shocks, but not for other oilprice shocks. Notably, statistical measures of the net oilpriceincrease relative to the recent past do not represent the exogenous component of oilprices. In fact, only a small fraction of the observed oilpriceincreases during crisis periods can be attributed to exogenous oil production disruptions. Third, compared to previous indirect estimates of the effects of exogenous supply disruptions on real GDP growth that treated major oilpriceincreases as exogenous, the direct estimates obtained in this paper suggest a sharp drop after five quarters rather than an immediate and sustained reduction in economic growth for a year. They also suggest a spike in CPI inflation three quarters after the exogenous oil supply shock rather than a sustained increase in inflation, as is sometimes conjectured. Finally, the results of this paper put into perspective the importance of exogenous oil production shortfalls in the Middle East. It is shown that exogenous oil supply shocks made remarkably little difference overall for the evolution of U.S. real GDP growth and CPI inflation since the 1970s, although they did matter for some historical episodes. Key Words: Oil shock; war; counterfactual; oil supply; exogeneity; weak instruments. JEL: E32, C32.

This project is a field demonstration of the ability of in-situ indigenous microorganisms in the North Blowhorn Creek Oil Field to reduce the flow of injection water in the more permeable zones of the reservoir, thereby diverting flow to other areas thus increasing the efficiency of the waterflood. The project is divided into three phases: Planning and Analysis (9 months), Implementation (45 months), and Technology Transfer (12 months). This report covers the fourth year of work on the project. Twenty-two months after the injection of nutrients into the reservoir began, three wells were drilled and cores taken therefrom were analyzed. Oil production volumes and water:oil ratios (WOR) of produced fluids have shown clearly that the MEOR treatment being demonstrated in this project is improving oil recovery. Of the 15 producer wells in the test patterns, seven have responded positively to the injection of microbial nutrients into the reservoir, while all eight of the producer wells only in control patterns have continued their natural decline in oil production, although one well did have some improvement in oil production due to increased water injection into a nearby injector well. In light of these positive findings and with DOE`s approval, the scope of the field demonstration was expanded in July 1997 to include six new injector wells. Of interest has been the performance of two wells in what was formerly a control pattern. Since the injector in this pattern (formerly Control Pattern 2) began receiving nutrients, two of the wells in the pattern have shown improved oil production for the last three months. While it would be premature to definitely characterize these two wells as yielding a positive response, these early results are certainly encouraging.

This paper reports on the outlook for the U.S.S.R's oil sector which grows increasingly bleak and with it prospects for the Soviet economy. Plunging Soviet oil production and exports have analysts revising near term oilprice outlooks, referring to the Soviet oil sector's self-destructing and Soviet oil production in a freefall. County NatWest, Washington, citing likely drops in Soviet oil production and exports (OGJ, Aug. 5, p. 16), has jumped its projected second half spot price for West Texas intermediate crude by about $2 to $22-23/bbl. Smith Barney, New York, forecasts WTI postings at $24-25/bbl this winter, largely because of seasonally strong world oil demand and the continued collapse in Soviet oil production. It estimates the call on oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries at more than 25 million b/d in first quarter 1992. That would be the highest level of demand for OPEC oil since 1980, Smith Barney noted.

NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to International Finance Discussion Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Recent IFDPs are available on the Web at www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be downloaded without charge from Social

Cheese prices are derived from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Market News, the National Agricultural Statistics Service, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This publication explains the process of cheese pricing. It includes information...

The Bachaquero-01 reservoir of the Lagunillas field is located in the eastern part of the Maracaibo Lake, Venezuela. The field is operated by the national oil company of Venezuela, PDVSA (Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A.). The ...

Propane prices and No. 2 fuel prices during the 1994-1995 heating season are tabulated for the state of Ohio. Nineteen companies were included in the telephone survey of propane prices, and twenty two companies for the fuel oilprices. A bar graph is also presented for average residential prices of No. 2 heating oil.

Limited crude reserves, consistently rising oilprices, unsafe disposal of the harmful lubricants and its guaranteed adverse aftereffects has increased concern for replenishing the environment. Development of environmental friendly lubricants and its appropriate usage is an option of prime importance which can overcome such problems. This paper investigates the prospects of Mahua oil based lubricant for maintenance applications. Mahua oil is blended with conventional gear oil (90T) in different ratios. Tribo pair used is plain carbon steel cylindrical pin and mild steel disc. Friction and wear parameters have been studied on Pin on Disc Tester under varying conditions. Worn out pins suggests pronounced abrasive and adhesive wear pattern under boundary film lubricated conditions. Experimentation reveals that addition of mahua oil blended with 90 T oil has good wear reducing traits apart from environmental benefits.

| Bibliography | Index Available July 2004 To order your copy today please call 800.639.4099 or visit www.chelseagreen.com The United States will find the world of LNG [liquefied natural gas] potentially much more troubling than to control the world's dwindling oil supply, expansion into LNG (with its main production sources in anti

This report is one of a series of publications assessing the feasibility of increasing domestic heavy oil production. Each report covers select areas of the United States. The Appalachian, Black Warrior, Illinois, and Michigan basins cover most of the depositional basins in the Midwest and Eastern United States. These basins produce sweet, paraffinic light oil and are considered minor heavy oil (10{degrees} to 20{degrees} API gravity or 100 to 100,000 cP viscosity) producers. Heavy oil occurs in both carbonate and sandstone reservoirs of Paleozoic Age along the perimeters of the basins in the same sediments where light oil occurs. The oil is heavy because escape of light ends, water washing of the oil, and biodegradation of the oil have occurred over million of years. The Appalachian, Black Warrior, Illinois, and Michigan basins' heavy oil fields have produced some 450,000 bbl of heavy oil of an estimated 14,000,000 bbl originally in place. The basins have been long-term, major light-oil-producing areas and are served by an extensive pipeline network connected to refineries designed to process light sweet and with few exceptions limited volumes of sour or heavy crude oils. Since the light oil is principally paraffinic, it commands a higher price than the asphaltic heavy crude oils of California. The heavy oil that is refined in the Midwest and Eastern US is imported and refined at select refineries. Imports of crude of all grades accounts for 37 to >95% of the oil refined in these areas. Because of the nature of the resource, the Appalachian, Black Warrior, Illinois and Michigan basins are not expected to become major heavy oil producing areas. The crude oil collection system will continue to degrade as light oil production declines. The demand for crude oil will increase pipeline and tanker transport of imported crude to select large refineries to meet the areas' liquid fuels needs.

This report is one of a series of publications assessing the feasibility of increasing domestic heavy oil production. Each report covers select areas of the United States. The Appalachian, Black Warrior, Illinois, and Michigan basins cover most of the depositional basins in the Midwest and Eastern United States. These basins produce sweet, paraffinic light oil and are considered minor heavy oil (10{degrees} to 20{degrees} API gravity or 100 to 100,000 cP viscosity) producers. Heavy oil occurs in both carbonate and sandstone reservoirs of Paleozoic Age along the perimeters of the basins in the same sediments where light oil occurs. The oil is heavy because escape of light ends, water washing of the oil, and biodegradation of the oil have occurred over million of years. The Appalachian, Black Warrior, Illinois, and Michigan basins` heavy oil fields have produced some 450,000 bbl of heavy oil of an estimated 14,000,000 bbl originally in place. The basins have been long-term, major light-oil-producing areas and are served by an extensive pipeline network connected to refineries designed to process light sweet and with few exceptions limited volumes of sour or heavy crude oils. Since the light oil is principally paraffinic, it commands a higher price than the asphaltic heavy crude oils of California. The heavy oil that is refined in the Midwest and Eastern US is imported and refined at select refineries. Imports of crude of all grades accounts for 37 to >95% of the oil refined in these areas. Because of the nature of the resource, the Appalachian, Black Warrior, Illinois and Michigan basins are not expected to become major heavy oil producing areas. The crude oil collection system will continue to degrade as light oil production declines. The demand for crude oil will increase pipeline and tanker transport of imported crude to select large refineries to meet the areas` liquid fuels needs.

The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oilprices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

price shocks and economic downturns. Over the next 30 years oil demand is expected to grow by 60Energy Policy 34 (2006) 515­531 Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist of conventional oil production from an optimist's perspective. Is the oil peak imminent? What is the range

Fisheries, through its Market Development Branch, has contracted with the Bureau of Labor Statistics prices. P repared in the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries Branch of Market Development #12;United States - September 1958 CONTENTS TUNA, CANNED : Page --------------- White Meat Tuna Or Albacore, Solid Pack, In Oil

The objectives of this project were (1) to demonstrate the in situ microbial population in a fluvial dominated deltaic reservoir could be induced to proliferate to such an extent that they will selectively restrict flow in the more porous zones in the reservoir thereby forcing injection water to flow through previously unswept areas thus improving the sweep efficiency of the waterflood and (2) to obtain scientific validation that microorganisms are indeed responsible for the increasedoil recovery. One expected outcome of this new technology was the prolongation of economical life of the reservoir, i.e. economical oil recovery should continue for much longer periods in areas of the reservoir subjected to the MPPM technology than it would if it followed its historic trend.

The primary objective of this project is to enhance domestic petroleum production by field demonstration and technology transfer of an advanced-oil-recovery technology in the Paradox basin, southeastern Utah. If this project can demonstrate technical and economic feasibility, the technique can be applied to approximately 100 additional small fields in the Paradox basin alone, and result in increased recovery of 150 to 200 million barrels (23,850,000-31,800,000 m{sup 3}) of oil. This project is designed to characterize five shallow-shelf carbonate reservoirs in the Pennsylvanian (Desmoinesian) Paradox Formation and choose the best candidate for a pilot demonstration project for either a waterflood or carbon-dioxide-miscible flood project. The field demonstration, monitoring of field performance, and associated validation activities will take place within the Navajo Nation, San Juan County, Utah.

This project is a field demonstration of the ability of in situ indigenous microorganisms in the North Blowhorn Creek Oil Field to reduce the flow of injection water in the more permeable zones thereby diverting flow to other areas of the reservoir and thus increase the efficiency of the waterflooding operation. This effect is to be accomplished by adding inorganic nutrients in the form of potassium nitrate and orthophosphate to the injection water. Work on the project is divided into three phases, Planning and Analysis (9 months), Implementation (45 months), and Technology Transfer (12 months). This report covers the second year of work on the project. During the first year of the project, Phase 1 was completed and Phase 2 begun. Two wells were drilled in an area of the field where approximately 20 feet of Carter sand were found and appeared to contain oil bypassed by the existing waterflood. Cores from one well were obtained and used in laboratory core flood experiments. On the basis of the results, the schedule and amounts of nutrients to be employed in the field were formulated. The injection of nutrients into the first of four injector wells began November 21, 1994. The addition of nutrients into three additional injector wells began in January and February, 1995. Of the four injectors in the test patterns, two are receiving potassium nitrate and sodium dihydrogen phosphate while the other two are receiving 0.1% molasses in addition. Early, but as yet inconclusive, results from producing wells fin the first test pattern indicate increasingoil production and/or decreasing water-oil ratio. Preliminary geological and petrophysical characterization of the reservoir has been made and baseline chemical and microbiological data have been obtained on all wells in all test and control patterns.

Water requirements and uncontrolled air emissions from well vents and steam generators were estimated for each technology based upon available literature. Estimates of best air emission control technologies were made using data for EOR steam generators actually in use, as well as control technologies presently available but used by other industries. Amounts of solid wastes were calculated for each air emission control technology. Estimates were also made of the heavy metal content of these solid wastes. The study also included environmental residuals which may be expected should coal be used instead of lean crude to produce steam for thermal EOR. It was concluded that from an environmental prospective tertiary oil is preferable in many respects to shale oil, coal and synfuels. Alternative sources of oil such as syncrude, new exploration, and primary production could cause far more environmental damage than incremental EOR. Future EOR in specific regions may be constrained because of environmental issues: air emissions, solid waste disposal, water availability, and aquifer contaminators. Competition for water and the scarcity of surface water or groundwater which are low in total diminutive solids will impede some EOR projects. Risks of groundwater contamination should be minimized particularly because of requirements of the Environmental Protection Agency's new underground injection control program. A quantitative environmental assessment will require a complete and consistent data base for all fields for which EOR is planned out in which tertiary production is taking place. This is particularly true for EOR which will occur in Alaska or in offshore areas, where environments are fragile and where operating conditions are severe. 147 references, 29 figures, 46 tables.

Project work was initiated by Geo-Microbial Technologies, Inc. (GMT), Ochelata, Oklahoma for Contract Number DE-FG01-97EE15659 on June 18, 1997. The purpose of this project is to demonstrate reduction of sulfide contamination, as well as possible improvement of production in oil and gas production systems. This will be accomplished by application of the BioCompetitive Exclusion (BCX) process developed by GMT. A broad spectrum of well types and geographical locations is anticipated. The BCX process is designed to manipulate indigenous reservoir bacteria with the addition of synergistic inorganic chemical formulae. These treatments will stimulate growth of beneficial microbes, while suppressing metabolic activity of sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB), the primary source of harmful sulfide production.

The hypothesis of this paper is that crude oil, like any other unfinished commodity, is valued for the products derived from it; the purpose is to offer an empirical explanation for changes in the crude price charged by the members of OPEC. The model results show that the market-clearing prices reported to prevail for petroleum products on the principal petroleum spot market at Rotterdam are the primary determinants of changes in official crude prices. A systematic relationship between offical and spot prices is argued to have prevailed since 1974. An appendix clarifies five types of data required for the model. 13 references, 4 tables.

This article represents the World Oil's 49th annual outlook. It discusses oil and gas exploration information, pricing, drilling activity, production, and reserves. It discusses the various reasons for increases or decreases in drilling activity in the various production regions of the earth. The article is broken down into the various geo-political regions and each region is described individually. These regions are described as North America, South America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Far East (China, Indonesia, Viet Nam, etc.), and the South Pacific (Australia, New Zealand, New Guinea). Information on production, pricing, and drilling is presented in tabular formats along with a narrative discussion.

Soaring oilprices have drawn attention to the issue of the relative supply and demand for crude oil1 THE RIMINI PROTOCOL an Oil Depletion Protocol ~ Heading Off Economic Chaos and Political Conflict During the Second Half of the Age of Oil As proposed at the 2003 Pio Manzu Conference

After several months of drifting lower in line with declining autumn gasoline prices, tabs for methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) have turned around. There has been no big demand surge, but consumers and traders are beginning to build up inventories in advance of a series of midwinter shutdowns and turnarounds by producers. Spot prices, which dropped as low as 75 cts/gal, have rebounded to 90 cts/gal fob. Eager for a positive glimmer, methanol producers posted a 3-cts/gal increase in contract prices this month. It marks the first upward idea since February. In that time contract prices have dropped 75% from $1.55/gal to 39 cts/gal. A hard winter has hit early in much of the US sending natural gas prices up sharply. At the same time, formaldehyde and acetic acid markets remain firm, and with MTBE rebounding, methanol producers feel entitled to a piece of the action. {open_quotes}I don`t buy into this claim that MTBE demand is up and I don`t think producers can justify even a 3-cts/gal increase,{close_quotes} says one. {open_quotes}There is nothing in the economy to warrant a run-up. Housing starts are weaker, and demand is down at least 80,000 bbl/day with the MTBE shutdown.{close_quotes}

to the invest in an oil field. Like most commodities, oilprices tend to mean-revert, and as a direct result the value of investment in an oil field is also mean-reverting. Consequently, it would not be appropriateReal Option Pricing with Mean-Reverting Investment and Project Value October 1st, 2009 #12;Abstract

is the valuation of the option to the invest in an oil field. Like most commodities, oilprices tend to mean-revert, and as a direct result the value of investment in an oil field is also mean-reverting. Consequently, it wouldReal Option Pricing with Mean-Reverting Investment and Project Value Sebastian Jaimungal , Max

A recent public opinion poll released on June 24, 2010, concluded that 63 percent of those surveyed support the idea that reducing emissions and increasing alternative energy are worth pursuing even if that means increased costs. The Energy Information Administration's latest Annual Energy Outlook shows that the current financial crisis has reduced U.S. oil imports from their all time peak of 60 percent and projects a gradually declining percentage through 2035 under the reference case, and even lower if oilprices remain high -- reaching $210 per barrel by 2035 in 2008 dollars.

. In addition, the delivered price of coal to power plants located in the region will be affected by diesel fuel The Fifth Power Plan includes price forecasts for natural gas, oil, and coal. Natural gas prices have by far costs for trains that deliver coal to the plants. Recent higher prices for coal are partially related

the model against historical production data, and use the calibrated model to simulate the impact of tax prices have prompted oil-holding nations and states to revise their tax policies, including increasing to historical data to simulate the effects of alternative tax policies on production paths and on the present

Makoil, Inc., of Orange, California, with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy has reprocessed and reinterpreted the 3D seismic survey of the Grant Canyon area, Railroad Valley, Nye County, Nevada. The project was supported by Dept. of Energy Grant DE-FG26-00BC15257. The Grant Canyon survey covers an area of 11 square miles, and includes Grant Canyon and Bacon Flat oil fields. These fields have produced over 20 million barrels of oil since 1981, from debris slides of Devonian rocks that are beneath 3,500 to 5,000 ft of Tertiary syntectonic deposits that fill the basin of Railroad Valley. High-angle and low-angle normal faults complicate the trap geometry of the fields, and there is great variability in the acoustic characteristics of the overlying valley fill. These factors combine to create an area that is challenging to interpret from seismic reflection data. A 3D seismic survey acquired in 1992-93 by the operator of the fields has been used to identify development and wildcat locations with mixed success. Makoil believed that improved techniques of processing seismic data and additional well control could enhance the interpretation enough to improve the chances of success in the survey area. The project involved the acquisition of hardware and software for survey interpretation, survey reprocessing, and reinterpretation of the survey. SeisX, published by Paradigm Geophysical Ltd., was chosen as the interpretation software, and it was installed on a Dell Precision 610 computer work station with the Windows NT operating system. The hardware and software were selected based on cost, possible addition of compatible modeling software in the future, and the experience of consulting geophysicists in the Billings area. Installation of the software and integration of the hardware into the local office network was difficult at times but was accomplished with some technical support from Paradigm and Hewlett Packard, manufacturer of some of the network equipment. A number of improvements in the processing of the survey were made compared to the original work. Pre-stack migration was employed, and some errors in muting in the original processing were found and corrected. In addition, improvements in computer hardware allowed interactive monitoring of the processing steps, so that parameters could be adjusted before completion of each step. The reprocessed survey was then loaded into SeisX, v. 3.5, for interpretation work. Interpretation was done on 2, 21-inch monitors connected to the work station. SeisX was prone to crashing, but little work was lost because of this. The program was developed for use under the Unix operating system, and some aspects of the design of the user interface betray that heritage. For example, printing is a 2-stage operation that involves creation of a graphic file using SeisX and printing the file with printer utility software. Because of problems inherent in using graphics files with different software, a significant amount of trial and error is introduced in getting printed output. Most of the interpretation work was done using vertical profiles. The interpretation tools used with time slices are limited and hard to use, but a number to tools and techniques are available to use with vertical profiles. Although this project encountered a number of delays and difficulties, some unavoidable and some self-inflicted, the result is an improved 3D survey and greater confidence in the interpretation. The experiences described in this report will be useful to those that are embarking on a 3D seismic interpretation project.

a nonlinear model to investigate the relationship between oil-price shock and economic growth in Japan the dynamic behavior of crude-oilprices for the period 1997-2008. Using data from four countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, we find evidence of short-term pre- dictability in oil-price changes over time, except

-varying volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we allow for asymmetric GARCH errors and investigate the system wide impulse response function, we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oilprice changes...

This study presents an analysis of several recently published methods for quantifying the uncertainty in economic evaluations due to uncertainty in future oilprices. Conventional price forecasting methods used in the industry typically...

This study presents an analysis of several recently published methods for quantifying the uncertainty in economic evaluations due to uncertainty in future oilprices. Conventional price forecasting methods used in the industry typically...

This project is a field demonstration of the ability of in-situ indigenous microorganisms in the North Blowhorn Creek Oil Field to reduce the flow of injection water in the more permeable zones thereby diverting flow to other areas of the reservoir and thus increase the efficiency of the waterflooding operation. This effect is to be accomplished by adding microbial nutrients to the injection water. Work on the project is divided into three phases, Planning and Analysis (9 months), Implementation (45 months), and Technology Transfer (12 months). This report covers the third year of work on the project. During Phase I, two wells were drilled in an area of the field where approximately twenty feet of Carter sand were found and appeared to contain oil bypassed by the existing waterflood. Cores from one well were obtained and used in laboratory core flood experiments. The schedule and amounts of nutrients to be employed in the field were formulated on the basis of the results from laboratory core flood experiments.

The primary objective of this project is to enhance domestic petroleum production by demonstration and technology transfer of an advanced oil recovery technology in the Paradox basin, southeastern Utah. If this project can demonstrate technical and economic feasibility, the technique can be applied to approximately 100 additional small fields in the Paradox basin alone, and result in increased recovery of 150 to 200 million barrels of oil. This project is designed to characterize five shallow-shelf carbonate reservoirs in the Pennsylvanian Paradox Formation and choose the best candidate for a pilot demonstration project for either a waterflood or carbon dioxide-flood project. The field demonstration, monitoring of field performance, and associated validation activities will take place in the Paradox basin within the Navajo Nation. The results of this project will be transferred to industry and other researchers through a petroleum extension service, creation of digital databases for distribution, technical workshops and seminars, field trips, technical presentations at national and regional professional meetings, and publication in newsletters and various technical or trade journals.

The partial monopolization of the world oil market by the OPEC cartel has produced significant economic costs to the economies of the world. This paper reports estimates of the costs of monopolization of oil to the US over the period 1972--1991. Two fundamental assumptions of the analysis are, (1) that OPEC has acted as a monopoly, albeit with limited control, knowledge, and ability to act and, (2) that the US and other consuming nations could, through collective (social) action affect the cartel's ability to act as a monopoly. We measure total costs by comparing actual costs for the 1972--1991 period to a hypothetical more competitive'' world oil market scenario. By measuring past costs we avoid the enormous uncertainties about the future course of the world oil market and leave to the reader's judgment the issue of how much the future will be like the past. We note that total cost numbers cannot be used to determine the value of reducing US oil use by one barrel. They are useful for describing the overall size of the petroleum problem and are one important factor in deciding how much effort should be devoted to solving it. Monopoly pricing of oil transfers wealth from US oil consumers to foreign oil producers and, by increasing theeconomic scarcity of oil, reduces the economy's potential to produce. The actions of the OPEC cartel have also produced oilprice shocks, both upward and downward, that generate additional costs because of the economy's inherent inability to adjust quickly to a large change in energy prices. Estimated total costs to the United States from these three sources for the 1972--1991 period are put at $4.1 trillion in 1990$($1.2 T wealth transfer, $0.8 T macroeconomic adjustment costs, $2.1 T potential GNP losses). The cost of the US's primary oil supply contingency program is small ($10 B) by comparison.

The partial monopolization of the world oil market by the OPEC cartel has produced significant economic costs to the economies of the world. This paper reports estimates of the costs of monopolization of oil to the US over the period 1972--1991. Two fundamental assumptions of the analysis are, (1) that OPEC has acted as a monopoly, albeit with limited control, knowledge, and ability to act and, (2) that the US and other consuming nations could, through collective (social) action affect the cartel`s ability to act as a monopoly. We measure total costs by comparing actual costs for the 1972--1991 period to a hypothetical ``more competitive`` world oil market scenario. By measuring past costs we avoid the enormous uncertainties about the future course of the world oil market and leave to the reader`s judgment the issue of how much the future will be like the past. We note that total cost numbers cannot be used to determine the value of reducing US oil use by one barrel. They are useful for describing the overall size of the petroleum problem and are one important factor in deciding how much effort should be devoted to solving it. Monopoly pricing of oil transfers wealth from US oil consumers to foreign oil producers and, by increasing theeconomic scarcity of oil, reduces the economy`s potential to produce. The actions of the OPEC cartel have also produced oilprice shocks, both upward and downward, that generate additional costs because of the economy`s inherent inability to adjust quickly to a large change in energy prices. Estimated total costs to the United States from these three sources for the 1972--1991 period are put at $4.1 trillion in 1990$($1.2 T wealth transfer, $0.8 T macroeconomic adjustment costs, $2.1 T potential GNP losses). The cost of the US`s primary oil supply contingency program is small ($10 B) by comparison.

A significant increase in the seaborne trade for coal over the past twenty years has unified formerly separate coal markets into a world market in which prices move in tandem. Due to its large domestic market, the United ...

Real prices of major appliances (refrigerators, dishwashers, heating and cooling equipment) have been falling since the late 1970s despite increases in appliance efficiency and other quality variables. This paper demonstrates that historic increases in efficiency over time, including those resulting from minimum efficiency standards, incur smaller priceincreases than were expected by Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts made in conjunction with standards. This effect can be explained by technological innovation, which lowers the cost of efficiency, and by market changes contributing to lower markups and economies of scale in production of higher efficiency units. We reach four principal conclusions about appliance trends and retail price setting: 1. For the past several decades, the retail price of appliances has been steadily falling while efficiency has been increasing. 2. Past retail price predictions made by DOE analyses of efficiency standards, assuming constant prices over time, have tended to overestimate retail prices. 3. The average incremental price to increase appliance efficiency has declined over time. DOE technical support documents have typically overestimated this incremental price and retail prices. 4. Changes in retail markups and economies of scale in production of more efficient appliances may have contributed to declines in prices of efficient appliances.

Vegetable oils have historically been a valued commodity for food use and to a lesser extent for non-edible applications such as detergents and lubricants. The increasing reliance on biodiesel as a transportation fuel has contributed to rising demand and higher prices for vegetable oils. Biotechnology offers a number of solutions to meet the growing need for affordable vegetable oils and vegetable oils with improved fatty acid compositions for food and industrial uses. New insights into oilseed metabolism and its transcriptional control are enabling biotechnological enhancement of oil content and quality. Alternative crop platforms and emerging technologies for metabolic engineering also hold promise for meeting global demand for vegetable oils and for enhancing nutritional, industrial, and biofuel properties of vegetable oils. Here, we highlight recent advances in our understanding of oilseed metabolism and in the development of new oilseed platforms and metabolic engineering technologies.

According to the standard analysis of commodity prices, stockpiling is a necessary signature of speculation. This paper develops an approach suggesting that speculation may temporarily push crude oilprices above the level ...

This thesis compares the simple Autoregressive (AR) model against the k- Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) model to make a point forecast of five energy commodity prices. Those commodities are natural gas, heating oil, gasoline, ethanol, and crude oil...

This thesis compares the simple Autoregressive (AR) model against the k- Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) model to make a point forecast of five energy commodity prices. Those commodities are natural gas, heating oil, gasoline, ethanol, and crude oil...

This publication contains the 1994 survey results of the ``Annual Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales Report`` (Form EIA-821). This is the sixth year that the survey data have appeared in a separate publication. Prior to the 1989 report, the statistics appeared in the Petroleum Marketing Annual (PMA)for reference year 1988 and the Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM) for reference years 1984 through 1987. The 1994 edition marks the 11th annual presentation of the results of the ongoing ``Annual Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales Report`` survey. Distillate and residual fuel oil sales continued to move in opposite directions during 1994. Distillate sales rose for the third year in a row, due to a growing economy. Residual fuel oil sales, on the other hand, declined for the sixth year in a row, due to competitive natural gas prices, and a warmer heating season than in 1993. Distillate fuel oil sales increased 4.4 percent while residual fuel oil sales declined 1.6 percent. Kerosene sales decreased 1.4 percent in 1994.

It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy-related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the marketclearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate "price bands" around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities.

The effects of Federal refined-product price controls upon the price of motor gasoline in the United States through 1977 are examined. A comparison of domestic and foreign gasoline prices is made, based on the prices of products actually moving in international trade. There is also an effort to ascribe US/foreign market price differentials to identifiable cost factors. Primary emphasis is on price comparisons at the wholesale level, although some retail comparisons are presented. The study also examines the extent to which product price controls are binding, and attempts to estimate what the price of motor gasoline would have been in the absence of controls. The time period under consideration is from 1969 through 1977, with primary focus on price relationships in 1970-1971 (just before US controls) and 1976-1977. The foreign-domestic comparisons are made with respect to four major US cities, namely, Boston, New York, New Orleans, and Los Angeles. 20 figures, 14 tables.

A process and economic model for aqueous pyrolysis in-field upgrading of heavy oil has been developed. The model has been constructed using the ASPEN PLUS chemical process simulator. The process features cracking of heavy oil at moderate temperatures in the presence of water to increaseoil quality and thus the value of the oil. Calculations with the model indicate that for a 464 Mg/day (3,000 bbl/day) process, which increases the oil API gravity of the processed oil from 13.5{degree} to 22.4{degree}, the required value increase of the oil would need to be at least $2.80/Mg{center_dot}{degree}API($0.40/bbl{center_dot}{degree}API) to make the process economically attractive. This level of upgrading has been demonstrated in preliminary experiments with candidate catalysts. For improved catalysts capable of having the coke make and increasing the pyrolysis rate, a required priceincrease for the oil as low as $1.34/Mg{center_dot}{degree}API ($0.21/bbl{center_dot}{degree}API)has been calculated.

economy. Commodity prices are key economical20 drivers in the market. Raw products such as oil, gold 15 1 Introduction16 17 1.1 Forecasting the commodities market18 The commodities market focuses of prices in both the short and long-term view25 point to help market participants gage a greater

I examine the long-run behavior of oil, coal, and natural gas prices, using up to 127 years of data, and address the following questions: What does over a century of data tell us about the stochastic dynamics of price ...

Petroleum and plant-derived spray oils show increasing potential for use as part of Integrated Pest Management systems for control of soft-bodied pests on fruit trees, shade trees, woody ornamentals and household plants. Sources of oils, preparing...

This project is a field demonstration of the ability of insitu indigenous microorganisms in the North Blowhorn Creek Oil Field to reduce the flow of injection water in the more permeable zones thereby diverting flow to other areas of the reservoir and thus increase the efficiency of the waterflooding operation. This effect is to be accomplished by adding inorganic nutrients in the form of Potassium nitrate and orthophosphate, to the injection water. In Phase I, which has been completed, the following results were obtained. Two new wells were drilled in the field and live cores were recovered. Analyses of the cores proved that viable microorganisms were present and since no sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) were found, the area in which the wells were drilled, probably had not been impacted by injection water, since SRB were prevalent in fluids from most wells in the field. Laboratory waterflooding tests using live cores demonstrated that the rate of flow Of simulated production water through the core increased with time when used alone while the rate of flow decreased when nitrate and phosphate salts were added to the simulated production water. Since there is only a small amount of pressure on the influent, the simulated production water was not forced to sweep other areas of the core. The field demonstration (Phase II) involves adding nutrients to four injector wells and monitoring the surrounding producers. The exact kind and amounts of nutrients to be employed and the schedule for their injection were formulated on the basis of information obtained in the laboratory waterflooding tests conducted using the live cores from the field. Results obtained in these tests will not only be compared to historical data for the wells but also to four injectors and their corresponding producers (control) which were chosen for their similarity to the four test patterns.

of livers with respect to oil content and vitamin A potency · · Relationship of oil content and vitamin A by molecular dietillation · Concentration of vitamin A by saponification · Vitamin-oil specifications, pricesQY THE FISH LIVER OIL INDUSTRY FISH ERY LEAFLET 233 FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE United States