If the House comes down to California, get ready to wait

SACRAMENTO — An election night blue wave Tuesday could slow down considerably by the time it reaches the California coast, making the rest of America wait to see who will control the House in 2019.

Forget staying up all night to find out who won congressional seats here: Strategists and campaign experts say it could take days — if not weeks — to determine victors in a series of tight and closely watched midterm races in Southern California.

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The potential long wait is the product of generous provisions for California voters backed by the state's governing Democratic majority, and the continued abandonment of polling places in favor of mail-in ballots, which require more time to count and verify.

The California slow-vote-count scenario means that if the balance in the House is close, the entire country may have to wait to know whether Democrats take back the chamber.

Democratic strategist Katie Merrill fears the worst. In a tight battle for House control, she envisions President Donald Trump tweeting allegations of voter fraud, followed by a flood of election lawyers rushing into the Orange County Registrar's Office.

“I think we’re looking at Palm Beach 2.0, and this is a nightmare scenario everyone needs to be prepared for,” Merrill said, referring to the contested 2000 presidential race in Florida. “Trump will not let it stand if it comes down to California.”

Our must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State.

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While California may not ultimately be pivotal in the midterms, Merrill called Orange County "ground zero" in the national battle for the House. The once conservative bastion of Southern California has turned purple, and Democrats are fighting to take four seats there alone.

A smaller part of the county is in CA-49, long represented by Republican Darrell Issa, which serves as a perfect reminder for how long it can take to get results.

Two years ago, Issa's narrow win wasn't declared until the Monday after Thanksgiving, nearly three weeks after Election Day. That same seat — now an open race between Republican Diane Harkey and Democrat Mike Levin — is among the districts considered essential for Democrats to take over the House.

“I’ve been telling reporters for months, get your reservations for hotel rooms in Orange County,” said Rob Stutzman, a GOP strategist who believes House control could come down to a handful of California seats in those Southern California suburbs.

In a state leading the digital revolution, California voters love voting by mail, and the state has encouraged it. For seven consecutive statewide elections, a majority have submitted ballots by mail.

And they love to procrastinate, said Orange County Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley. He's expecting 60 percent of his county's 1.6 million voters to use mail ballots. Of those, 35 percent or more will turn them in at polling places or mailboxes on Election Day.

"Right there, you have another 10 days on top of the process," Kelley said.

But where Merrill predicted chaos, Kelley expressed confidence after 12 years at the helm. "We're prepared for it; this is what we do," he said. "This is not Palm Beach. I wouldn't equate it to that."

"I'm ready for the lawyers and ready for the observers," he added. "Let's go. It's part of the process."

California election data guru Paul Mitchell says the state is “working harder than just about anyone else in the country to make sure that every ballot is counted,” and that has led to a protracted process that may be less than satisfying in an era of immediacy.

Among the reasons: California allows ballots that arrive three days late to count, as long as they are postmarked by Election Day. If a ballot lands in the wrong county, state law allows four more days for it to get to the right office, Mitchell said.

“That means you literally have seven days after an election where a county could still be receiving legitimate ballots,” he said.

Even voting in person can lead to delays in California. The state allows registered voters to cast provisional ballots if they arrive at a polling place that doesn't have them on the rolls. For the first time, in 2018, residents can cast a conditional ballot on Election Day without registering in advance. Such ballots require additional checks to make sure that voters haven’t participated in other counties and meet eligibility criteria.

"There are a few things that may add a little bit of time to ballot counting, but they are all intended to protect the voting rights of eligible California voters," California Secretary of State Alex Padilla, California's top elections official, told POLITICO.

Signatures — mismatched or missing altogether — are one of the biggest challenges in counting mail ballots, according to Kim Alexander, president of the California Voter Foundation, a nonpartisan group that has advocated many of the recent changes. It’s the main way counties verify that a vote is legitimate.

In the past, a bad signature might have meant a vote was tossed out. But a September state law requires counties to give at least eight days’ notice to voters whose ballot is jeopardized by a questionable signature.

Alexander said she'd rather have registrars take their time than succumb to pressures to accelerate results.

“The media has framed elections as a one-day sale, and it’s not the case anymore,” Alexander said. “Elections are a one-month-long activity now in our state, and certifying the elections are a one-month activity.”

Mitchell, the elections expert, estimates county registrars will have 2 million to 3 million ballots left to count after Election Day out of about 12 million he believes will be cast statewide.

In the most competitive districts, he said, registrars may have to count as many as 30 percent of total ballots after the election. "That means you're going to have to have some huge point spreads to call those races on election night," he said.

Merrill and Stutzman believe Democrats stand to gain anywhere from two to six congressional seats this year in California. If that margin makes a difference nationally, watch out, Merrill said.

She has tried to “sound the alarm” to make sure that state and local elected officials are prepared for the potential onslaught of attorneys, activists and party officials on their doorstep.

“Our hope is there are Democratic lawyers with go-bags in their front closet ready to go Wednesday morning,” she said. “Some of them are definitely thinking about this.”