Betting the NFL: Plenty of live underdogs in Week 1

Published 7:26 pm, Saturday, September 12, 2015

Quarterback Matt Ryan will look to lead the Falcons to an upset over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday in Atlanta.

Quarterback Matt Ryan will look to lead the Falcons to an upset over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday in Atlanta.

Photo: John Bazemore — The Associated Press

Betting the NFL: Plenty of live underdogs in Week 1

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In the world of sports handicapping, the key phrase is what have you done for me lately.

Last season I closed with a flourish, going 10-1 against the spread and straight up in the NFL playoffs.

On most NFL weekends there are favorites that look like can’t-miss picks to cover against the spread. Despite losing receiver Jordy Nelson for the season, the Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay Packers look like a lock to easily win at Chicago, which has its own health issues including question marks surrounding its receivers.

After being suspended for most of last season, running back Adrian Peterson will come out fired up and lead Minnesota to a cover in San Francisco.

Those favorites look tough, but this early in the season it might be in your best interest to focus on the underdogs.

Last season underdogs went 94-84-4 ATS on the road and 41-37-2 at home. In Week 1 last year, underdogs went 10-6 ATS. The trend looks like it will continue with some live underdogs barkin’.

Some handicappers are saying to stay away from the Philadelphia at Atlanta game. The Falcons are the underdog, but with the 3-point spread the cover appears to be up for grabs.

The Eagles will certainly score points. But being an underdog at home to start the season can’t be sitting well with the Falcons. Here is another item to consider and why I think Atlanta is one of the best picks of the day.

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan made his first regular-season start at home in Week 1 in 2008. On his first pass he set the tone with a 62-yard touchdown pass to Michael Jenkins. Atlanta went on to beat Detroit 34-21. Ryan is unbeaten in home openers ATS and straight up.

Another live underdog is the Giants, a 6-point underdog in Dallas.

This heated rivalry always brings out the best in both teams. The defenses are good but not great and both teams have players with health or suspension issues. Like the Atlanta game, the key for me is a quarterback — Eli Manning. Players from both teams get pumped up for this rivalry and Manning is no exception. He has an impressive 7-3-1 record ATS in his last 11 games in Dallas.

Sunday’s games

Green Bay at Chicago (+7): See above. Nowak’s pick: Packers 27-17.

Kansas City at Houston (-1): Facing a tough Chiefs defense without the injured Arian Foster does not bode well for the Texans. Nowak’s pick: Chiefs 24-10.

Cleveland at Jets (-3): The combination of running back Chris Ivory and a solid defense should give new Jets coach Todd Bowles a 1-0 start. Nowak’s pick: Jets 30-17.

Indianapolis at Buffalo (+2.5): The tough Bills “D” should keep this game close. The question is the Bills offense and how effective it will be. If the injured LeSean McCoy plays, I see new Bills coach Rex Ryan also getting his first win. Nowak’s pick: Bills 27-23.

Miami at Washington (+3.5): Another live underdog. Miami has an improved defense, but QB Ryan Tannehill wasn’t a world-beater in the preseason. I think Washington back Alfred Morris will put on a show with Matt Jones on his heels looking to take some carries away. Nowak’s pick: Washington 24-20.

Carolina at Jacksonville (+3.5): While Panthers coach Ron Rivera wants to eventually go back to a two-back system, for the first time running back Jonathan Stewart is the guy with D’Angelo Williams in Pittsburgh. Stewart finished strong last season and should finish strong in this game. Nowak’s pick: Jaguars 27-20.

Seattle at St. Louis (+4): I believe Seattle has the potential to go unbeaten in the regular season. The addition of Jimmy Graham finally gives the Seahawks an elite receiving threat down the middle of the field. Nowak’s pick: Seahawks 37-17.

New Orleans at Arizona (-2.5): I still can’t believe the Saints let Graham get away. Add the departure of receiver Kenny Stills and a healthy Carson Palmer at QB for Arizona and the Cardinals should get a win. Nowak’s pick: Cardinals 30-24.

Detroit at San Diego (-3): Detroit is 0-4 at San Diego and has lost all four games by an average score of 33-20. But with a healthy Calvin Johnson (if he can stay healthy), I see the potential for Lions QB Matt Stafford having an exceptional season. That success starts here. Nowak’s pick: Lions 33-20.

Tennessee at Tampa Bay (-3): Rookie QBs face off with the Bucs’ Jameis Winston vs. the Titans’ Marcus Mariota. But the difference here will be the resurgence of Bucs back Doug Martin, who was impressive in the preseason. Nowak’s pick: Buccaneers 27-17.

Cincinnati at Oakland (+3): Betting in Las Vegas on this game is about 50-50. I give the edge to the Bengals with a healthy A.J. Green poised to make some big plays. Nowak’s pick: Bengals 33-20.

Baltimore at Denver (-4.5): Another live ’dog. Denver should win this game but there is something about Ravens QB Joe Flacco, who usually comes up big against elite teams. The Broncos are still getting used to new coach Gary Kubiak’s run-first philosophy, and the loss of Julius Thomas to the Jaguars will hurt. Nowak’s pick: Ravens 31-27.