THE 2004 CAMPAIGN: THE INDEPENDENT

By DAVID E. ROSENBAUM

Published: February 24, 2004

WASHINGTON, Feb. 23—
In answer to a question on Monday morning after a speech at the National Press Club about his decision to run for president, Ralph Nader said, ''This candidacy is not going to get many Democratic Party votes.''

His support will come largely from ''conservatives and independents who are very upset with Bush administration policies,'' Mr. Nader said, and he urged ''the liberal establishment to relax and rejoice.''

But based on who voted for him four years ago, his analysis looks shaky. Voters leaving polling places in 2000 were asked by Voter News Service, a consortium of television networks and The Associated Press, how they would have voted if George W. Bush and Al Gore had been the only candidates on the ballot.

Among Nader voters, 45 percent said they would have voted for Mr. Gore, 27 percent said they would have voted for Mr. Bush, and the rest said they would not have voted.

In California, where Mr. Nader received 4 percent of the vote, 46 percent said they would have voted for Mr. Gore and only 14 percent said they would have gone for Mr. Bush.

Because there is no reason to believe the breakdown was not similarly lopsided in other states, it is safe to assume that Mr. Nader cost Mr. Gore states that Mr. Bush narrowly won.

In Florida, Mr. Nader received 97,488 votes, 1.6 percent of the total, and Mr. Bush carried the state by 537 votes. In New Hampshire, Mr. Nader won 22,198 votes, 3.9 percent of the total, and Mr. Bush carried the state by 7,211 votes. Had Mr. Gore won in either state, he would have become president.

Mr. Nader said at the Press Club that surveys of voters leaving the polls showed he had received more Republican votes than Democratic votes in New Hampshire in 2000.

That is true. New Hampshire has 30 percent more registered Republicans than registered Democrats.

But people there did not vote a straight party line for president in 2000. On the question of whom they would have voted for with only two candidates on the ballot, 3 percent of those who said they would have voted for Mr. Gore voted for Mr. Nader, and only 2 percent of voters who said they would have voted for Mr. Bush voted for Mr. Nader.

Of the 2.9 million voters who supported Mr. Nader in 2000, 58 percent voted for a Democrat for the House of Representatives, and only 27 percent voted for a Republican.

Before he announced his decision to run, Mr. Nader said he was holding off to see if Howard Dean would become the Democratic nominee. But Dr. Dean's overriding goal now, like that of so many other Democrats, is to defeat President Bush.

On Monday, Dr. Dean, who dropped out of the race last week, issued a statement urging his supporters to stick with the Democratic candidate.

''Ralph Nader has made many great contributions to America over 40 years,'' Dr. Dean said. ''But if George W. Bush is re-elected, the health, safety, consumer, environmental and open-government provisions Ralph Nader has fought for will be undermined. George Bush's right-wing appointees will still be serving as judges 50 years from now, and our Constitution will be shredded. It will be government by, of and for the corporations -- exactly what Ralph Nader has struggled against.''

In 2000, as the Green Party candidate, Mr. Nader was on the ballot in 43 states. Running as an independent this time, he acknowledged Monday that ballot access ''won't be easy,'' requiring his volunteers to gather thousands of signatures on petitions.

But Richard Winger, publisher of a newsletter called Ballot Access News, said he thought that Mr. Nader could succeed in many states without needing the signatures.

The Green Party already has a ballot line in 23 states, Mr. Winger said, and might well give it to Mr. Nader. Other minor parties, like the Natural Law Party, the Reform Party and the Independent Party in New York, might do likewise, he said.

Four years ago, Mr. Nader raised and spent about $8.5 million on his campaign. For this election, he said, he has raised about $175,000.

So far, the campaign is not showing much organization. On Monday afternoon, his press office said Mr. Nader would spend the next three days campaigning in Texas, but a schedule of when he was going to be in which cities was not available.

Many of Mr. Nader's longtime friends and admirers have expressed disappointment at his decision to run.

Steve Cobble, a top adviser to Mr. Nader in the 2000 campaign, signed a letter early this month with others on the left wing of the Democratic Party encouraging Mr. Nader to mobilize progressive elements behind the Democratic nominee rather than make ''a diminished presidential run that allows the media to ignore or ridicule or isolate you.''

Robert S. McIntyre, director of Citizens for Tax Justice, first became interested in tax policy working for Mr. Nader in the early 1970's. Speaking of himself and other onetime acolytes of Mr. Nader, Mr. McIntyre said: ''I don't think anybody's very happy about it. When everything we've worked for all our lives is being destroyed, it's not very appealing.''

Mr. Nader recognizes that many of his old friends are disappointed. ''I think this may be the only candidacy in our memory that is opposed overwhelmingly by people who agree with us on the issues,'' he said.

Chart/Map: ''Ralph Nader in 2000'' Mr. Nader's votes totaled more than George W. Bush's margin of victory in two states. NEW HAMPSHIRE Bush margin: 7,211 Votes for Nader: 22,198 FLORIDA Bush margin: 537 Votes for Nader: 97,488 Map of the United States highlighting New Hampshire and Florida. (Source by Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections)