The tougher the better

As the heat in the AFL kitchen has risen, so too have the performances of grand-finalists Collingwood and Brisbane, observes Richard Hinds.

While the Sydney Swans fell a game short of the grand final, they now know better than anyone what it takes to make one. In the first quarter of their round-21 defeat by Collingwood and in the final quarter of last week's preliminary final against Brisbane, the Swans were victims of the irresistible mixture of desperation and class that sets the grand finalists apart.

With their manic attack on the ball, the Magpies kicked the first four goals of the match and stole what was to prove a vital break in a highly pressurised game. Last Saturday, the seemingly tired Lions dominated the midfield after three-quarter time, kicking six goals to nil to crush their less experienced opponents.

Neither the Magpies nor the Lions were dominant forces this year. Yet the more the stakes have been raised - as they were against the Swans - the better both have looked. Not necessarily because of the flair of their many outstanding players. But because, in the image of their hard-headed coaches, there is a sense of menace and destiny about these teams.

Given the brutal football Collingwood and Brisbane play, the grand final should again be tense and low-scoring. As they did in the qualifying final, the Magpies will try to stay close in the early stages, hoping their fresh legs prevail.

Yet, while several key Lions, including captain Michael Voss, are carrying injuries, they have finished their past two matches, against Adelaide and Sydney, strongly. Perhaps the biggest question for the Lions is how much the extra final they have played has taken out of them.

For Collingwood, history and expectation weigh heavily. While they performed brilliantly to get within nine points of the Lions last year, that result only added to the long tradition of heartbreak. Lose again and the infamous Colliwobbles will be exhumed from their resting place at Victoria Park.

Here is how the grand final breaks down . . .

Head to head

Collingwood 15, Brisbane 11. Until the qualifying final the Lions had won their past three against the Magpies, including last year's grand final. However, the Pies' 15-point win seemed to signal a change in the balance of power between them. With Voss struggling, the Lions kicked just one goal in the second half as two late Alan Didak goals got Collingwood over the line. The game was played at an incredible pitch with only 16 goals scored.

Coaches

Leigh Matthews (Brisbane): Considered by some the greatest player of all time, Matthews will nudge his way up the list of most successful coaches with a fourth flag. Detached and cold-blooded when game time comes, Matthews has little respect for sentiment. Nor is he noted for match-day tricks, preferring to drill the basics into his talented and tough playing group - the type of basics that often win finals.

Michael Malthouse (Collingwood): By renovating what was a lamentable Collingwood playing list, Malthouse has enhanced his reputation as one of the game's finest judges of talent. He puts great faith in his players and tends to draw wholehearted performances from them. Like Matthews, prefers a no-nonsense, collision style of football well suited to September.

Match-winners

Brisbane: Jonathan Brown

The rampaging Lions centre half-forward had been a big factor in the Brisbane's back-to-back premierships and has again hit form at the right time. His combination of size, strength and mobility makes him easily the most difficult match-up for the Magpies defence. Simon Prestigiacomo got the job last time, with Jason Cloke coming back to block his path. Brown was still effective.

Collingwood: Nathan Buckley

Winning the Brownlow Medal on Monday night is unlikely to distract Buckley, probably the most focused and best-prepared player in the AFL. While the Magpies midfield is now deep and strong, Buckley remains its dominant force because of his outstanding disposal. With Michael Voss not fit enough to run with him, the Lions will struggle to find a suitable opponent. Shaun Hart, though, is one possibility.

Key match-ups

Alastair Lynch (Brisb) v Shane Wakelin (Coll): Lynch has tended to start games strongly in recent weeks but looks to be carrying a groin injury. He threatened to tear the Magpies apart in the qualifying final with three first-quarter goals before Wakelin got on top. It is crucial for the Pies that Wakelin does not let him off the leash this time.

Clark Keating/Jamie Charman (Brisb) v Josh Fraser/Tristen Walker (Coll). Keating was probably the most important player in last year's grand final. He not only carried the ruck after Beau McDonald was hurt early - he dominated it. Fraser has come of age this season as a genuine ruckman. But, without the relief of Anthony Rocca, this will be a major challenge. The young Walker will have to do some hard work on the ball.

Daniel Bradshaw (Brisb) v Chris Tarrant (Coll): Fast, strong in the air and seemingly inexhaustible, Tarrant is a difficult match-up for any defence. Mal Michael and Justin Leppitsch lack the pace to go with him, which means Bradshaw may get the job again. Rocca's absence may make it easier for the Lions to double team Tarrant. Otherwise, Bradshaw will have his work cut out.

Jason Akermanis (Brisb) v Ben Johnson (Coll): A classic contrast in styles - the flashy, egocentric game of the brilliant Akermanis against the tough, no-frills approach of the under-rated Johnson. Akermanis has been below his best lately but, as he proved in the closing minutes of last year's grand final, can do maximum damage with minimum chances. Johnson has the pace to go with him and will make him earn every touch.

Casualties

Brisbane: While he has been named as an emergency, tough-nut Chris Scott seems to have failed in his attempt to get back from injury, meaning he will join twin brother Brad on the sidelines. Both are major losses.

Collingwood: Just as "Fabulous" Phil Carman's suspension might have cost the Magpies the 1977 premiership, Anthony Rocca's two-week ban for striking may be their undoing this time. Rocca kicked four goals in last year's grand final and provides valuable relief for Fraser. Without him, the Pies will have to make major changes.

Motivation

Brisbane: History beckons. Not since Melbourne in 1957 has an AFL team won three consecutive premierships. While Matthews dismisses this as a factor, the proud Lions will be eager to extract another flag from a team that is starting to show signs of wear and tear.

Collingwood: The tears of midfielder Paul Licura and the consoling arm of coach Malthouse was one of the defining images of last year's grand final. Having worked incredibly hard to get another chance, the Magpies will be desperate to ensure they do not suffer the same fate.

Prediction

Rocca's loss is crucial but the extra week's rest during the finals will be vital. Collingwood by nine points.