Opinion Contributor

Bosnia may offer road map for Syria

There is no doubt that the U.S. has critical interests at stake in Syria, the authors write. | AP Photo

By EDWARD P. JOSEPH and MICHAEL O'HANLON | 5/23/13 7:27 AM EDT

The international community needs a better strategy for the intractable war in Syria. Washington and Moscow are jointly pushing for an international conference that would bring representatives of the Assad regime and the opposition to the table. The question is, if the sides show up — which is not clear at the moment — how likely is it that they will agree on a deal? And if they do agree on a deal, who will ensure that it doesn’t dissolve into more bloodletting? We believe that any deal is likely to require, among other things, international peacekeepers and that the world is going to have to start getting used to the idea.

There is no doubt that the U.S. has critical interests at stake in Syria. A key state in the heart of the Middle East is being devastated by a war that will soon have killed 100,000, already has forced more than 1 million into neighboring states, and that increasingly provides opportunities for Al Qaeda-linked groups to establish bases. The involvement of regional actors, the pressure on an already overstressed Iraq and the presence of highly lethal chemical weapons only underscore the risks. President Barack Obama, leading a war-weary nation, has been understandably reluctant to intervene militarily just to satisfy the urge to “do something.” But diplomacy alone may not be enough for a conflict that, increasingly threatens to engulf its neighbors. The Assad regime has been buoyed by recent gains, while the opposition appears more divided and ineffectual, except for radical elements whose prominence feeds the regime’s narrative that is defending Syria against “terrorists.”

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We need an approach that increases military pressure on the brutal Assad regime so that it becomes obvious to all that President Bashar Assad cannot possibly hang on to power. At the same time, we need a concept for an eventual peace settlement that offers some hope to his fellow Alawites — and other allied minorities in Syria — since they will otherwise fear retribution at the hands of the opposition and therefore fight to the death. Assad must go, but the preponderance of Alawites need a vision for a way they can be safe and secure in a future Syria, if we wish to persuade them and their chief foreign supporter Russia to go along with our plan. We need bigger sticks and better carrots — without assuming a major role in the war, given what we have experienced in Iraq as well as Afghanistan.

And we have been here before. The conditions mentioned here are similar to what transpired in Bosnia two decades ago. The Bosnia recipe is, in fact, the best first approximation to what we should be trying to accomplish in Syria. After two years of war and hesitation, the United States, with allies, intensified its engagement, unifying and building up the flagging Bosniak and Croat forces. NATO conducted sustained airstrikes, and then diplomacy produced a peace accord that gave the Serbs territory while introducing outside peacekeepers to provide security. Alas, just as in Syria, roughly 100,000 died and many hundreds of thousands were displaced before this happened, but the Dayton accords ultimately ushered in a peace that has lasted to this day.