Australia vs England: Second ODI preview and prediction

England picked up their first win of the summer against Australia in Melbourne and will now look to take that form and make it two on what is expected to be a quicker, bouncier wicket at the Gabba in Brisbane.

If the wicket for the Test is anything to go by, it won’t be, but weather has been much kinder to the groundstaff in the lead up to the ODI and in any event, there should be more in it for the bowlers than there was in Melbourne.

No matter the condition of the pitch though, Australia were thoroughly beaten in Melbourne with the Ashes disappearing quickly in the rear-view mirror.

The side who were so dominant in whites looked anything but in the coloured clothes, and the main issue seemed to be their bowling attack.

While they made a poor start with the bat and lost both captain Steve Smith and vice-captain David Warner early on, they still managed to score 300, which should have been quite easily defendable.

Instead, their bowlers came out and served up a well below standard performance as England pulled off a record run chase for the Melbourne Cricket Ground and Jason Roy (180 off 151) made the highest score by an Englishman in the history of one day international cricket.

Australia won’t blame their loss on the post-Ashes celebrations, but it’s something to take into account. While they leave Melbourne with their tail firmly between their legs, there is plenty to suggest they will turn it around in Brisbane.

The biggest problem confronting England is keeping Smith and Warner quiet. They did it in Melbourne, but stopping both of them from making a score two matches in a row seems unlikely.

(AAP Image/David Mariuz)

While the batting duo hold the keys to the match for Australia, illness and resting mean Australia may well need a huge score to defend – that or they could be chasing one if they bowl first.

Josh Hazlewood has returned to Sydney to recover from illnes, while Pat Cummins is out after a gruelling summer schedule with a tour of South Africa to come. Andrew Tye who was underwhelming in Game 1, but still the most economical of the bowlers will get a second chance while Jhye Richardson is also likely to play, forming the attack alongside Mitchell Starc and Adam Zampa.

No changes are expected in the top six with Marcus Stoinis, Mitchell Marsh and Travis Head (the former two looking in good form) all to keep their spot, while question marks have been thrown up around Tim Paine, who is also suffering with illness. If he is rubbed out, in-form Adelaide Strikers keeper Alex Carey will take his place.

No matter how much we talk about Australia being able to turn this around though, it’s down to stopping the barrage of England, led by Jason Roy.

While Chris Woakes and Mark Wood bowled well with the new ball and most of their attack did its job in Melbourne, it was Roy who guided them to the win. Joe Root also looked in good touch with 91 not out, but Roy had the required run rate back to five and a half by the end of the first ten overs and it made life easy for the duo.

Power hitting like that isn’t going to come off every time and his innings wasn’t without chance, but if it comes off again, Australia are going to need something special to match it.

The tourists also had Jonny Bairstow at the top of the order who looked good for his 14 before getting out and he will be expected to hang around for longer this time.

England’s order has so much potential in it though. Apart from the players already mentioned, Eoin Morgan didn’t get a chance to get going with the game already over by the time he got to the crease. Nor did Jos Buttler or Moeen Ali, both of whom can be damaging with the bat.

Ali is coming off the worst Ashes tour in recent memory by an individual player, but he bowled with great control in the first match and is something of an X-Factor for England in the same way both Marsh and Stoinis have the potential to be for Australia as middle order pinch hitters and solid bowling options.

The English spinner has alot more pressure on him though. With only five bowlers in the squad, he is going to have to bowl ten overs each match, but he handled the pressure admirably in the first match and could be the key to England walking away with a series win.

(AFP PHOTO / IAN KINGTON)

The biggest difference between the first ODI and the recently completed Ashes series for the tourists was the mental attitude. The Tests saw them defensive-minded in field settings, bowling plans and batting mindset. The first ODI saw everything reversed as they went on the attack and that was nowhere better shown than in that opening wicket stand between Roy and Bairstow.

If they can keep that type of mentality and bring it to Australia who are already on the back foot, then anything could be possible for the tourists who are undoubtedly one of, if not the best ODI team in the world.

They must play with that aggression though. Whether it’s Moeen Ali with the ball, their opening bowlers up front or the batting, any step back will invite Australia to run over the top of them, with a few batsmen now due for a score after failures in Melbourne.

This has all the makings of an intriguing clash and one which could set the momentum for the rest of the series.

Remaining series fixtures

Prediction

Australia have never been behind for long this summer, but the one day setup seems to suit the English side with plenty of big hitting better. Their bowlers performed above expectation in the first game though and whether they can match that again on a likely bouncier track at the Gabba is anyone’s guess.

The other thing that should be noted is Smith and Warner were stopped early on in their tracks.

Australia should win this in a close one.

The hosts to level the series.

Don’t forget, The Roar will be providing coverage of each ODI in the series with a live blog and highlights.

Scott Pryde

One of the mainstays of The Roar, Scott Pryde has written over 1,800 articles covering everything from rugby league to basketball, from tennis to cricket. You can follow him on Twitter @sk_pryde.

The England batting approach is the key. If they get off to another flyer,they will fancy their chances of winning comfortably. It will be interesting to see what plans Australia has to combat this approach.

Australia also needs to put a lot of pressure on the English bowling because, as Scott pointed out, they only have 5 real bowling options in their team. It’s fine to believe a side can run down 350 but confidence starts to drop and pressure builds if a few guys go for 70 or more runs.

England are taking this more seriously as they trying to regain any possible shred of credibility (if that is possible) after another Ashes humiliation.
A couple of ODI wins won’t cover up the fact they haven’t won a test match in Oz for 8 years or so. Will be over a decade without a test win in Oz when they tour next time.
Actually, the way the poms carry on, if they win the ODI’s, they’ll be claiming the Ashes would’ve been won had they selected the ODI players. The pom supporters and press have already anointed themselves ODI world champions in waiting, just as the rugby side did in 15 and are also doing now . Nothing more predictable than a pom getting ahead of themselves and talking themselves up, only to fail when the heat is on.

Scott I’ll be shocked if Stoinis is dropped today, he’s been arguably Australia’s second-best ODI player the past year after Warner. His versatility with the bat is invaluable – he’s shown he can either rebuild Australia’s innings when they’re in trouble or come to the crease and explode like he did the other day, with 60 from 40 balls.