After Vote, Debate Shifts to New European Leader

LONDON  Ireland’s vote to ratify the European Union’s Lisbon Treaty has finally cleared the way for the creation of a powerful new president, intended to elevate the 27-nation bloc’s standing on the global stage.

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Ahead lies a difficult discussion about how much power and influence a new European Union president should have and whether the post should fall to a political star  like former Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain  or one of his grayer, more technocratic rivals.

The leaders of member countries will decide, probably this month, and their decision could determine whether the union really seeks the bigger role it says it needs to try to match the influence of the United States and that of rising powers like China, Russia, India and Brazil.

The Lisbon Treaty, which aims to streamline decision-making and reform the bloc’s ramshackle structures, lays down a two-and-a-half-year term for a full-time president of the European Council, the body that represents member nations. The treaty, if finally ratified by the Poles and Czechs, also mandates a single new foreign affairs chief, in charge of both policy and aid money, and a new European diplomatic corps.

Both new jobs would be subordinate to the leaders of member countries, and the position of commission president, held by José Manuel Barroso of Portugal, continues. But those who fill the two new posts will have a considerable chance to carve out significant roles for themselves, since they will be the most prominent faces of a collective Europe.

There would also be greater powers for the European Parliament  the only popularly elected European Union institution  an effort to improve democratic accountability.

The treaty, assuming it passes, is “a splendid virtual success,” said Justin Vaïsse, a French scholar at the Brookings Institution. “It is virtual not only because much will depend on the men and women who occupy the main functions, and how they choose to define them and assert their authority, but also because there will be no real improvement without greater convergence and cooperation between the big three European countries,” he said, referring to France, Germany and Britain.

So when they gather at a summit meeting this month, the 27 European leaders face a clear choice between appointing a prominent president to represent them, or someone who will be more submissive.

The identity of the new president will determine the type of job that is created, said Katinka Barysch, deputy director of the Center for European Reform, a research institute in London. “If you have someone like Tony Blair, he will not want to be talking about the minutiae of service-market liberalization,” she said. “He would want to be talking about Iran to Barack Obama.”

While the European Union says it desires a bigger international role, national politicians know that a charismatic figure would overshadow many of them and could shift the bloc’s center of gravity.

There are no declared candidates. But the politician thought to have the best prospect is also the most controversial: Mr. Blair. Other contenders include: Jan Peter Balkenende, François Fillon, Herman Van Rompuy, and Jean-Claude Juncker, respectively the Dutch, French, Belgian and Luxembourgian prime ministers; Paavo Lipponen and Felipe González, the former Finnish and Spanish prime ministers; and former President Martti Ahtisaari of Finland.

Though Mr. Blair led the British Labour Party to three victories, he does not have the support of most European center-left parties, which have not forgiven him for his role in the Iraq war. Britain remains outside several important union initiatives, like its single currency, the euro, and Mr. Blair’s successor, Gordon Brown, is thought very likely to lose the next election to David Cameron of the Conservatives, who is sharply critical of further European integration.

But with the possible exception of Mr. Fillon, Mr. Blair’s is the only credible big name to emerge so far from informal discussions. Supporters say that Mr. Blair thinks he could play a useful role because of his good relations with Mr. Barroso and several other European leaders. Smaller countries suspect that Mr. Blair would be too susceptible to favoring the big nations, reducing the influence of the bloc’s minnows.

Mr. Fillon, who is reaching the end of a successful premiership, has already proven his ability to work with and around an imperious and sometimes petulant leader, President Nicolas Sarkozy of France.

Mr. Sarkozy has spoken positively of Mr. Blair for the post, but his current thinking is unclear. Mrs. Merkel was never enthusiastic about Mr. Blair, but she was more open to the idea during recent talks with Mr. Sarkozy, a European diplomat said.

Olivier Ferrand, the president of Terra-Nova, a research institute in Paris, said Mr. Sarkozy backed Mr. Blair because the British leader would strengthen the leadership of big member states like France in an enlarged Europe.

But there will be other political considerations, too, like balancing politicians from the left and the right and from large and small nations.

If the president comes from the center-right, for example, the foreign policy chief is likely to come from the left.

Mrs. Merkel is pressing for a woman to be appointed to one of the two big jobs, with the Greek foreign minister, Dora Bakoyannis, and Austria’s former foreign minister, Ursula Plassnik, possible contenders.

“We don’t want to have a big-personality president, like Tony Blair, and then a big-personality foreign high representative, because then they will compete with each other,” said Ms. Barysch, of the Center for European Reform. “We already look ludicrous on the international stage having so many different voices.”