Just For Fun

President Obama is on track to end his second term in office with higher job approval than he began it, back in January of 2013. Call it the third (or lame-duck) honeymoon, if you will. Obama saw record job approval in November, measured both monthly and daily, and tied his daily low for job disapproval (previously set February 24, 2013). After a very strong October, Obama charted an even stronger November in public opinion polls. Let's take a look at the new chart for this month to see all of this.

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

November, 2016

After gaining 1.2 points in October, Obama's average monthly job approval rose at exactly the same rate in November, which put him at 52.9 percent approval for the month -- beating the 52.7 percent record high he set at the very beginning of his second term. Obama's disapproval rating improved even more -- after falling a single point in October, Obama's job disapproval monthly average fell 1.4 points in November, putting him at 44.0 percent disapproval. The trend was clear all month long, with no reversal in his daily average's improvement.

As this column series winds down (only two more to go after this one!), monthly analysis becomes rather pointless. All presidents usually get a bounce upwards during the lame-duck period at the end of their term, and Obama is no exception. Partly this is due to people exhausted over the years-long presidential contest, partly it is due to people looking forward not backward, and partly it is due to people giving Obama the benefit of the doubt on his way out the door. Even George W. Bush got a tiny bump upwards in the polls in his final months in office (although that's relative to his record-low ratings for almost his entire second term -- Bush rose from a dismal 25.3 percent approval before the 2008 election to reach only 29.3 percent approval in his final month in office).

So, really, the only political analysis necessary for Obama's final months is "people are already missing him, before he's even gone." That's all that really needs to be said, at this point.

Overall Trends

The overall trend, obviously, is up. Barack Obama is going to have his most-improved year ever, at this point that much is just about guaranteed. At the end of last December, Obama was at only 43.7 percent average monthly job approval, and 51.6 percent disapproval -- a total of 7.9 percent "underwater." In the past eleven months, his job approval has improved a whopping 9.2 points, while his disapproval fell 7.6 points. He's now 8.9 percent above water and setting second-term records. Almost every one of the months in 2016 were positive for Obama, with only two real setbacks -- both of which he easily overcame the following month.

Obama not only charted his best second-term monthly average job approval in November, he also had the best daily average of his second term as well. For three days at the end of the month, Obama was at 54.0 percent approval -- noticeably up from the 52.7 percent high-water mark he set the previous month. Before that, Obama's best showing was right after his inauguration, when he was at 52.5 percent in January of 2013. Obama also tied his lowest second-term job disapproval daily average last month, matching the 42.3 percent mark he charted in February, 2013.

Below is an expanded chart of Obama's entire second term. He's visibly doing better than he even did during his second honeymoon, right after being sworn in for the second time.

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

As you can clearly see, Obama has been having a fantastic 2016. With only two months left of data to chart, Obama is almost certain to end up in a very positive place with the public at the end. His job approval may not continue to rise quite as steeply in the final two months, but then again it might even accelerate.

Of the four previous presidents who served two full terms since modern polling became available, Obama seems likely to join the three who ended their terms in positive territory (Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, and Dwight D. Eisenhower), and thus avoiding being lumped in with the only two-term president to end up deep in negative numbers (George W. Bush).

The other presidents from the polling era have a more mixed record, but none of them served a full two terms. Jimmy Carter served a single term, but ended up with negative numbers. George H. W. Bush also served only four years, but got such a big post-election bounce (after Clinton won) that he wound up in positive territory.

The rest of the presidents served fractional terms. Richard Nixon served about a term and a half, but then resigned in disgrace with job approval ratings slightly worse than George W. Bush's, at the end. Gerald Ford served a half a term, and Lyndon Johnson served about a term and a quarter, but both men ended up in an unusual place (there were a lot more "undecided" responses, back then) -- below a majority of 50 percent, but with job approval still above water compared to job disapproval. And finally, John F. Kennedy was struck down three-quarters of the way through his first term, and ended with positive ratings.

Viewed historically, Barack Obama's job approval with the public is nowhere near the best ever (Clinton holds this record, followed by Reagan and Eisenhower), but a lot better than many previous presidents can claim. As we approach the end, more and more people are feeling a lot better about the past eight years, when put in historical context.

[Obama Poll Watch Data:]

Sources And Methodology

ObamaPollWatch.comis an admittedly amateur effort, but we do try to stay professional when it comes to revealing our sources and methodology. All our source data comes from RealClearPolitics.com; specifically from their daily presidential approval ratings "poll of polls" graphic page. We take their daily numbers, log them, and then average each month's data into a single number -- which is then shown on our monthly charts here (a "poll of polls of polls," if you will...). You can read a much-more detailed explanation of our source data and methodology on our"About Obama Poll Watch"page, if you're interested.

Questions or comments? Use theEmail Chrispage to drop me a private note.

To save space, the only data and statistics listed above are from Obama's second term. If you'd like to see the data and stats from Obama's first term, including a list of links to the full archives of the Obama Poll Watch column for the first term, we've set up an Obama Poll Watch First Term Data page, for those still interested.

This is a piece of legislation that has been in the works for quite some time now and, passed the House with a big majority and the Senate on Monday in an overwhelmingly bipartisan 94-5 vote.

The opposition to the bill included the usual suspects, Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, demonstrating how they despise the art of compromise. Oh, I'm sorry, it wasn't compromise, said Senator Warren. It was extortion. What a joker!

Not a good idea. We are currently going thru a post-factual, child-like behavior political era. We can afford to because we haven't faced any real threats for over 15 years so we can tolerate un-American activities, such as refusing to do anything to help the current president for political gain (e.g. ignoring the Supreme Court nominee, announcing on day one to make him a one term president, etc.).

But the world is an unpredictable place, and we might find that we need to have qualified people with adult capabilities and realize how short Trump and his feel good cronies are.

At that point, when the populace is looking for adults, they will remember Obama and Kerry, Hillary and Biden, and the power will swing back.

To try to out-childish the Republicans may feel good in the short term, but is counter productive in the long term. And beneath us.

That doesn't mean that we shouldn't point out the childishness of tweeting about SNL, the venality and hypocrisy concerning infrastructure spending, the fiscal irresponsibility of more tax cuts for the wealthy, the 0.1% pandering of repealing inheritance taxes, etc. - it may seem that pointing out the pathetic carries no weight at the moment with Trump supporters, but the chance of over reach is very high (e.g. Ohio's latest foray into restricting women's rights, the odious voter suppression laws, etc.) and the potential for incompetence (Trump, Carson, Flynn, Priebus) would be funny if it weren't so serious (at least to the people who take America seriously).

Re: Obama's polling - I think I can confidently predict that Obama's numbers will continue to rise for at least the next year, as the immensity of the awful mistake of the Trump presidency sinks in.

After all, here's a man who promises jobs, then picks a Burger CEO as labor secretary. A man who promises justice, then picks a racist as Attorney General (at this rate, I expect his pick for Surgeon General to be Michele Bachmann).

In sum, looking at Trump's picks so far (and he's just getting started), I think I can confidently dub the next administration The "Deconstruction Presidency". We'll see how that plays out in the whiny hinterland.

Okay - just because A and B agree on C, doesn't mean that A and B are thinking about C in the same way. Therefore, the fact that A and B happen to agree is a coincidence, but is not logical evidence that the two share a common point of view.

For instance: Trump has said that he wants to rebuild the infrastructure that's crumbling around us. Eight years ago, Obama presented a bill that would have started that effort. Does that mean that Trump supports Obama? No. They just happen to have reached the same conclusion about infrastructure development for very different reasons.

Okay, I admit that I lost my ability to explain things to children years ago.

China have a lot of dodgy investments, particularly in commercial property (e.g. the empty cities) and propping up the SOEs. They also have a bubble in their residential property market, and their people treat the stock market like a casino.

Their problem is that there is an unstated deal between the people and the party - the people will get richer every year and the party keep hold of power.

The speculation is that Xi will use Trump to create a financial crisis that the whole world blames on Trump, allowing deflation of the Chinese economy without Beijing being seen as responsible.

My buddy thinks this is unlikely, Beijing is really scared of a downturn and the public reaction, but says to watch for any attempt by Beijing to prod Trump into more 'unfortunate' tweets and actions.

Okay - just because A and B agree on C, doesn't mean that A and B are thinking about C in the same way. Therefore, the fact that A and B happen to agree is a coincidence, but is not logical evidence that the two share a common point of view.

And yet, you accused Trump of being in bed with Putin just because they think about C the same way..

You see your problem??

You want to apply my logic when it can slam the Right, but you want to deny that exact same logic when it goes against the Left..

You can deny the FACTs all you want.

But the FACT is that Democrats and Al Qaeda were on the same page when it came to Bush's domestic surveillance programs.. This is fact...

And Democrats did it *SOLELY* and COMPLETELY for partisan gains...

This is fact..

@Nick..

Yeah man, international diplomacy is weird. You should read up on it before you get us all killed with your fucking twitter account.

What kind of fucking moron believes that a twitter account can get people killed?? :D

I mean, honestly. This nick guy must be a total douche to believe that any world leader could be provoked to war by a tweet... :D