Analysis: Gatland is taking World Cup gamble by moving James Hook to full-back

WARREN GATLAND has stuck with the conservatism that has characterised most of his post-Grand Slam Wales tenure by moving James Hook away from fly-half for what is the biggest game of the Kiwi’s coaching career.

WARREN GATLAND has stuck with the conservatism that has characterised most of his post-Grand Slam Wales tenure by moving James Hook away from fly-half for what is the biggest game of the Kiwi’s coaching career.

Putting Hook at full-back means the Welsh coach is moving his best player as far away from the action as possible ... and with the stakes as high as they are on Sunday, our World Cup hopes could stand or fall by the decision.

The New Zealander is nothing if not experienced and proven at the highest level and his selection, hopefully, may yet prove a master move.

Gatland will defend his choice by arguing Hook might see more of the ball at 15 in the Pool D opener in Wellington against the world champions.

The coach maintains South Africa kick more than any of the world’s other leading nations and consequently I guess the theory goes that the running ability of Hook could reap rich rewards as he gathers any loose Springbok punts and takes them on from deep.

Fair enough, and as I say Gatland is no mug. He knows the strengths, and weaknesses, of his team more than anyone.

But Hook at 15 is not an argument I’m entirely comfortable with for three reasons.

Firstly, Hook has proved to be our best playmaker down the years and deserves to be right in the thick of the action in his favoured position of fly-half for the World Cup.

Secondly, I believe the Springboks possess a highly accurate kicking game, followed up by an effective chase led by speedster Bryan Habana.

Thirdly, and most worryingly, it means that if the Welsh forwards win an adequate share of possession, Hook could find himself a spectator watching most of the action from afar, rather than orchestrating it.

Rhys Priestland, picked at 10 instead of Hook, will be seen by the Welsh management as a more secure option.

He is someone who they anticipate doing the basics well and who won’t be unruffled by the magnitude of the occasion and the reputation of the opposition.

The Scarlets up-and-comer made his first start at No.10 against England at Twickenham and impressed.

But how he reacts to the pressure the Springboks will apply to him will be crucial to Welsh hopes, not just of beating them for only the second time in history but also of progressing to the knockout stage.

There’s a nagging concern too that with Priestland at 10 and Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies outside him, Wales may have little to offer in midfield other than the direct, bish-bash approach which is unlikely to worry a rigid Bok defence.

Again, I hope these fears don’t materialise because offensive staleness isn’t really an option if Gatland’s men want to get off to a winning start.

Backs coach Rob Howley has said himself that Wales are likely to need three tries to win against the world champions.

By anyone’s standards that’s a tall order against a team like South Africa, and yet lose this game and Wales really will be in the middle of a win-or-bust scenario in their next match.

Perhaps the selection shows that Gatland may be worried about the ability of his pack to win ball against the intense and physical South Africans and that he fears Wales could be feeding off scraps of possession with their lineout sure to come under pressure.

However, I just sense opting to send Hook back to No.15 in place of the out-of-form but specialist full-back Lee Byrne sends out a signal that we are reacting to the threat of the Springboks rather than focusing on dictating the pattern ourselves.

Wales should be going for broke in Wellington with Hook leading the charge.

But how effectively can he do that when he’s employed as the last line of defence?

Sure, Hook is likely to perform his duties on Sunday with aplomb, as he has done in the past wherever he has been picked.

Everything considered, he is probably a better option at present than Byrne or the undercooked Leigh Halfpenny.

But Wales also have a startling success record when hook is picked in his preferred position as a No. 10, something which appears to have been a secondary consideration in the selection shake-up for Sunday’s game.

Statistics can be misleading, but for me they tell an accurate story in the case of Hook about influencing matches and winning games for Wales.

And World Cup matches are about one thing... winning, and winning alone.

My maxim is play your best players in your best positions and you’ve got a chance.

Don’t, and you’re playing with fire.

Hook was excellent in orchestrating the second-half revival that saw Wales overhaul England at the Millennium Stadium last month and produced one of his most mature and composed displays a week after as he guided them to victory over Argentina.

The 26-year-old will run out at the Wellington Stadium wondering at what stage another rugby rescue act will come his way if Wales are struggling.

It will not be a case of if, but when he is moved to outside-half if Wales are chasing the game.

Elsewhere in the side, there is an air of predictably about Ryan Jones being out, having failed to recover from a calf problem, which means youngsters Warburton, Dan Lydiate and Toby Faletau are tasked with dealing with the fearsome Springboks back row.

The three Welsh young guns have massive potential and have done well, but this will be the litmus test for them.

Luke Charteris’ selection at lock forward in place of Bradley Davies is perhaps a sign of worry in the Welsh camp at the prospect of their regular lineout being dismantled by the great Victor Matfield.

Receiver Charteris is one of the tallest players in world rugby, is lighter and thus easier to be lifted high into the air.

It will give Wales another option, but they could miss the bulk and physicality of Davies against South Africa’s strong men in the loose.

Adam Jones was a certainty to start at tighthead prop after anchoring the Welsh scrum against Argentina and he is tasked with doing likewise on Sunday.

But Welsh fans won’t be talking about him today ... they will be discussing Hook being pulled from positional pillar to post yet again.

I just hope the Welsh management have got this particular decision right.

You somehow couldn’t see New Zealand or Australia moving Dan Carter or Quade Cooper away from the action to 15, could you?