FILE - In this May 13, 2016 file photo, California Gov. Jerry Brown gestures to a chart showing the unpredictable capital gains revenues as he discusses his revised 2016-17 state budget plan in Sacramento, Calif. Brown will release his proposed state budget on Jan. 10, 2017, outlining his spending priorities during a period of deep uncertainty about California's finances as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)

If Donald Trump were elected, Jerry Brown quipped before it actually happened, we’d have to build a wall around California to defend ourselves from the rest of the country.

That was a joke, the governor quickly added. Such a wall would be 1,000 miles long, cost billions, and be showy even by Golden State standards.

But the sentiment behind it was no joke at all.

With Trump set to take office, California is hastily constructing a legal, philosophical and cultural rampart to protect its progressive agenda from expected attacks by a newly conservative federal government – the bureaucratic equivalent of Sacramento flipping the bird to Washington, D.C.

It might be an expensive gesture. While California pays more in federal taxes than any state, and gets less back from D.C. than it puts in, Trump has threatened to withhold federal dollars from communities that defy him on issues like immigration.

It’s unclear how the conflict will play out – for one thing, no president can direct every dollar spent by the federal government – but the stakes are high.

California relies on tens of billions of federal dollars to pay for health care, education, social services, law enforcement, infrastructure and other programs. Less money in any of those areas could leave some of the state’s most vulnerable residents reeling.

“They’re attempting to implement an ideology that would have devastating effects on white working-class voters, seniors and lower-income children in all 50 states. It’s an effort to unravel the social safety net that has been constructed over the past 50 years.”

Change No. 1: Obamacare

In 2015, nearly one-third of California’s $275.3 billion budget – $86.2 billion – came from the federal government, according to the state’s most recent audited financial statements. This fiscal year, federal dollars play an even greater role, fueling 36 percent of state spending.

And that’s just a fraction of the federal dollars pouring into California.

Defunding Obamacare – something federal legislators started to do last week – would blow a $16 billion hole in California’s budget. Brown, who unveiled a new state budget earlier last week, said it’s a hole the state can’t easily backfill.

Folks are waiting, wondering and worrying.

“There’s a part of me that can’t believe, in my heart of hearts, that the people in power who actually understand how things work are going to totally destabilize our health care system in this way,” said Kim Rueben, an expert on state and local public finance at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute.

“There’s always some uncertainty when you switch administrations, but it’s amplified because it’s not clear what Trump’s views will translate to,” she added. Trump “has said contradictory things.”

Whatever the next move, California is ready to rumble. As Texas was to Barack Obama – Texas sued the federal government over overtime pay rules, immigration policy and transgender bathroom directives – California may be to Trump.

A strong defense …

The California Legislature has hired former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder and his firm for $25,000 a month.

Holder “will be an important resource as we work with the Governor and the Attorney General to protect California from the reckless overreach we expect from Donald Trump and the Republican members of Congress who have so cravenly enabled him,” Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, D-Paramount, said in a statement.

The Assembly voted to confirm Rep. Xavier Becerra, a congressman since 1992, to replace Kamala Harris as California’s top lawyer on Friday. Becerra says he’ll mount Texas-style opposition to Trump policies, from stop-and-frisk policing to crackdowns on undocumented immigrants to any potential creation of a “Muslim registry.”

“Any such policies would be antithetical to the deepest constitutional values and traditions of this nation – a nation founded in part by men and women fleeing religious persecution.”

Immigration, abortion, climate change, gun control, voting rights – Becerra stands ready to defend the state’s stance on them all, he said. He will use the weight of the office “to protect California’s most vulnerable people.”

The general wisdom is not to pick on someone bigger than you, and it has some Republican lawmakers worried.

“If the majority party continues to poke President-elect Trump with a short stick, then they better be prepared with a Plan B,” said state Sen. John Moorlach, R-Costa Mesa, in a statement.

“And, as far as I can tell, there is no alternative plan should these combative moves not be received well by the incoming Trump Administration.

If this is a David vs. Goliath battle, California may be particularly well-placed to torment the giant, if not quite slay him.

California has one of the largest economies on planet Earth, state Sen. Kevin de León has boasted. It’s one of 50 states, but it provides the federal government with an oversized 12 percent of its tax revenue, according to IRS statistics.

And while there are many ways to slice the numbers, California sends more treasure to Washington than it gets in return, according to our analysis and the analyses of many others.

Here’s a breakdown of the fiscal flow:

Money in: The federal government pours more than a quarter-trillion dollars into California’s governments, residents and businesses each year. The total was $283.6 billion in fiscal 2016 – not counting the salaries of federal employees who work here.

• About half of that – $143 billion – went to residents as direct payments (such as Medicare and food stamps), insurance payments (unemployment, flood insurance) and other types of assistance (such as reimbursements for prescriptions for veterans), according to the U.S. Treasury Department.

• About one-third of it – $93.3 billion – came as grants, mostly to state and local governments, “to carry out a public project or service.” This pot is considered most at-risk in the current showdown. The biggest chunk of money – $60 billion – went to the state Department of Health Care Services, with transportation, education and social services getting most of the rest.

• Most of the remainder – $47.2 billion – is awarded to California businesses that contract with the federal government. Lockheed Martin and Health Net had the biggest contracts, at $3 billion each.

All told, Los Angeles County residents, governments and businesses got $22.6 billion from the federal government last year. Orange County got $7.7 billion; Riverside, $6.1 billion; and San Bernardino, $4.9 billion.

The city of Los Angeles stands to lose a half-billion dollars in direct grants from the federal government over its vow to protect undocumented immigrants. Santa Ana, another self-declared “sanctuary city,” has $123 million on the line.

Money out: Californians paid $362 billion to the federal government in fiscal year 2015 – about $100 billion more than they got back, according to the most recent IRS statistics.

That $362 billion includes income taxes paid by individuals and businesses, as well as payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare), federal gas taxes and estate taxes on very large inheritances. It captures nearly all federal revenue – about 90 percent – and is a solid measure to use, according to researchers at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

A 20-year snapshot by The Economist found the same to be true over the long haul as well. Between 1990 and 2009 California sent $4.25 trillion to Washington and got $3.91 trillion back.

More than taxes

Still, for all the fear and loathing, Trump’s federal government may turn out to be good for many people in California, if not for their governments, said Rueben, the public finance expert at the Urban Institute.

If Trump follows through on tax reforms that lower the rates on capital gains, dividends and corporate taxes, it would be a big win for California’s tech economy, she said. Promises of big infrastructure spending could create jobs and stimulate the economy as well.

“Individuals might be better off under a new administration,” Rueben said. “It’s just not knowing what it means for everything else.”

In the meantime, California should quit the posturing in what’s essentially a dangerous game of chicken, Moorlach said, and focus instead on reaching across the aisle.

“I can just imagine Trump calling up Jerry Brown: ‘Hey, you know that $3.3 billion you wanted for high speed rail? Never mind,’” Moorlach said.

Teri Sforza is one of the lead reporters on the OCR/SCNG probe of fraud, abuse and death in the Southern California addiction treatment industry. Our "Rehab Riviera" coverage won first place for investigative reporting from the California Newspaper Publishers Association, first place for projects reporting from Best of the West and is a finalist for the National Institute for Health Care Management Foundation's print award, competing with the New York Times, the Washington Post and ProPublica. Sforza birthed the Watchdog column for The Orange County Register in 2008, aiming to keep a critical (but good-humored) eye on governments and nonprofits, large and small. It won first place for public service reporting from the California Newspaper Publishers Association in 2010. She also contributed to the OCR's Pulitzer Prize-winning investigation of fertility fraud at UC Irvine, covered what was then the largest municipal bankruptcy in America‘s history, and is the author of "The Strangest Song," the first book to tell the story of a genetic condition called Williams syndrome and the extraordinary musicality of many of the people who have it. She earned her M.F.A. from UCLA's School of Theater, Film and Television, and enjoys making documentaries, including the OCR's first: "The Boy Monk," a story that was also told as a series in print. Watchdogs need help: Point us to documents that can help tell stories that need to be told, and we'll do the rest. Send tips to watchdog@ocregister.com.

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