THIS BLOG RATES THE S&P 500 BUY/SELL/OR HOLD EACH DAY WITH 2-GOALS FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENTS: (1) PRESERVE CAPITAL (2) BEAT THE S&P 500.
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Friday, May 9, 2014

Cash is Best Place to be - Faber

CASH IS BEST (CNBC)“The most underappreciated asset is cash. Nobody likes
cash. Cash for the next 10 years you earn precisely zero. [Even so] for the
next six months opportunities will come along for a long time.” – Marc Faber at…http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000273653In my analysis (see NTSM paragraph below) I remain fully invested, but
warily so.THE HEAVY HAND OF THE IRS SEIZES INNOCENT AMERICANS’ ASSETS (Washington
Post Opinions, George Will)“The civil forfeiture law — if something so
devoid of due process can be dignified as law — is an incentive for perverse
behavior: Predatory government agencies get to pocket the proceeds from
property they seize from Americans without even charging them with, let alone
convicting them of, crimes. Criminals are treated better than this because they
lose the fruits of their criminality only after being convicted.” – George Will
at…http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/george-f-will-the-heavy-hand-of-the-irs/2014/04/30/7a56ca9e-cfc5-11e3-a6b1-45c4dffb85a6_story.htmlMARKET REPORTFriday, the S&P 500 was UP about 02. % to 1878 (rounded).
VIX FELL about 4% to 12.92. – Correction? The option boys don't think so. The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note rose slightly to 2.62%
at the close.The Bond Ghouls remain worried about the stock
market.If the smart money is selling
stocks, some are buying bonds, although Art Cashin did suggest that the rally
in bonds is due in part to foreign buying.I’m going to repeat this point until the S&P 500
breaks thru the old highs: The S&P 500 has closed within about 1% of the
all-time high of 1891 24-times since 1 Jan 2014. It needs to punch higher or
the correction will be back.MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing on the NYSE
increased to 53% at the close.(A number
above 50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.) New-highs
outpaced new-lows Friday.The spread
(new-highs minus new-lows) was +10. (It was +103 Thursday.) There were only 63
stocks advancing today. The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was minus-3.
In other words, over the last 10-days,
on average, the spread has DECREASED by 3 each day. The smoothed 10-dMA of
up-volume turned up today.The internals
remained neutral on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late.They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013. NTSMThe NTSM analytical model for LONG-TERM MONEY remained
HOLD Friday.Sentiment dropped slightly to 83%-bulls
(5-dMA of {bulls/(bulls+bears)} for funds invested in selected Rydex/Guggenheim
funds. On a statistical basis, Sentiment is negative.Price, VIX & Volume indicators are neutral, but are quite close to positive values.

MY INVESTED POSITION

I increased my stock allocation to 50% invested in stocks
on 26 March because of the NTSM indicators turned positive 24 Mar at
the close.50% in stocks is fully
invested for me, given my age (semi-retired) and the risk inherent in today’s
stock market. I am watching closely to see if it is time to reduce my long-term
stock holdings.

Followers

About Me

I am an engineer with a lifelong interest in "playing with numbers" so what could be more fun than trying to develop a system that beats the stock market? Well, lots of things, but I decided to do this anyway.
While I am not a finance-professional, or professional investor, I have developed some skills.
I competed in two CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio contests finishing in the top 4% in 2008 (34,320th of 800,000) and the top 0.1% (448th of 500,000) in 2009. More importantly, I managed to sell out of my retirement accounts at or near the top in 2000 and 2007 and bought close enough to the bottom that I didn’t lose too much sleep. (Even Bill Gates lost SOME sleep.)
I hope that my thoughts will help you achieve your investing goals. Please remember that my ideas are free and there may be times when my ideas are worth less than what you paid.