China told to abandon one child policy or face ruin

Peter Cai

A GROWING chorus of leading Chinese scholars and government officials is warning Beijing to take immediate action to change its controversial one-child policy, or face the consequences of economic and social catastrophes in the near future.

Researchers from the Development Research Centre of the State Council - the Chinese Cabinet - have argued in an article in China Economic Times that the government needs to reconsider its 30-year-old one-child policy and allow Chinese parents to have a second child.

Children galore, but not enough in the long run … China's fertility rate has been below replacement rate for 15 years. Photo: Reuters

The recent forced abortion of a seven-month-old foetus by family planning officials has reignited debate on the policy.

This call from the government research body is the latest sign of growing agitation for reform.

''Easing birth control is no longer a moot point and it is a matter of utmost urgency,'' Zhang Erli, a former senior official from the Family Planning Commission, told a conference in Beijing this April. ''If the current policy is not changed immediately, China will face an extremely serious labour shortage and ageing problems in 20 years' time. The pressure on society will be unbearable.''

Mr Zhang said China's fertility rate for the past 15 years was about 1.5, well below the replacement level of 2.1. The average annual population increase of six million during the same period was also significantly lower than the officially planned target of eight to 10 million, according to the website Caixin Media.

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There is a growing consensus among population experts, economists and business people in China that the one-child policy is no longer suited to changing socio-economic conditions.

One of China's foremost experts on population and a key government adviser, Cai Fang, says the country has already reached the Lewis turning point in 2010 - meaning China has exhausted its surplus rural labour and that the period of cheap industrial wages has ended.

China's working-age population has fallen for the first time since 2002, from 74.5 per cent to 74.4 per cent, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics early this year.

A joint research report by Boston Consulting Group and big reinsurer Swiss Re says China's working-age population will begin to fall by as early as 2015. They estimate the silver segment of the Chinese population, those aged 60 or over, will account for more than a third of the population by 2050.

Swiss Re warns of the significant risk of such a rapidly ageing society and says that in a worst-case scenario there ''would be a full-scale rupture of the country's social security net''. However, there is no sign yet that Beijing plans to ease its one-child policy.

The head of the Family Planning Commission, Li Bin, said in an interview in November that China might not be able to relax its family planning policy in the foreseeable future due to country's limited natural resources.

During the 12th five-year plan (2011-15), it would continue to implement its one-child policy, she said.