Richard Whittall:

The Globalist's Top Ten Books in 2016: The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer

Middle East Eye: "

The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer is one of the weightiest, most revelatory, original and important books written about sport"

“The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer has helped me immensely with great information and perspective.”

Bob Bradley, former US and Egyptian national coach: "James Dorsey’s The Turbulent World of Middle Eastern Soccer (has) become a reference point for those seeking the latest information as well as looking at the broader picture."

Alon Raab in The International Journal of the History of Sport: “Dorsey’s blog is a goldmine of information.”

Play the Game: "Your expertise is clearly superior when it comes to Middle Eastern soccer."

Andrew Das, The New York Times soccer blog Goal: "No one is better at this kind of work than James Dorsey"

David Zirin, Sports Illustrated: "Essential Reading"

Change FIFA: "A fantastic new blog'

Richard Whitall of A More Splendid Life:

"James combines his intimate knowledge of the region with a great passion for soccer"

Christopher Ahl, Play the Game: "An excellent Middle East Football blog"

James Corbett, Inside World Football

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Gaza War: New Palestinian Resolve Changes Paradigm

RSIS
Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate,
policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical issues and contemporary
developments. The views of the authors are their own and do not represent the
official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU.
These commentaries may be reproduced electronically or in print with prior
permission from RSIS and due recognition to the author(s) and RSIS. Please
email: RSISPublications@ntu.edu.sgfor feedback to the Editor RSIS Commentaries, Mr Yang Razali
Kassim.

No. 156/2014 dated 5 August 2014

Gaza War:New Palestinian Resolve
Changes Paradigm

By James M. Dorsey

Synopsis

The latest Israeli-Palestinian conflagration in Gaza constitutes a watershed
with Israel struggling to counter mounting international criticism of its
disproportionate use of force and Palestinians’ increasingly united refusal of
agreements that do not take into account their interests. A new
paradigm could emerge involving Palestinian civil disobedience to force Israel
to seriously negotiate an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Commentary

EXTOLLING THE virtues of a ceasefire in the Gaza war that
collapsed barely two hours after it took effect, US Secretary of State John
Kerry inadvertently highlighted the root cause of the failure of international
efforts to silence the guns in the Palestinian territory and resolve the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Under the ceasefire Israel would have been allowed to continue destroying
tunnels built by Hamas, the Islamist militia that controls Gaza, while
Palestinians “will be able to receive food, medicine … tend to their wounded,
bury their dead … travel to their homes … [and] take advantage of the absence —
hopefully, hopefully — of violence,” Kerry said.

Palestinian
fighters perform

While the ceasefire was likely doomed because it did not enforce a complete
halt to hostilities, its speedy collapse reflected a new-found Palestinian
resolve to ensure that its interests are accorded an equal weighting in any
arrangement with Israel. That resolve is rooted in a measure of reconciliation
between Hamas and the Palestine Authority headed by President Mahmoud Abbas,
Hamas’ transition from an embattled group, unable to pay public sector salaries
prior to the Israeli assault, into a resistance movement with street
credibility, and in the absence of Arab support in the Gaza war, a realisation
that Palestinians will have to rely on their own resources.

Palestinian resolve is further strengthened by the performance of Palestinian
fighters on the ground. Palestinian rockets have been able to target urban centres
deep inside Israel even if they have been unable to defeat the Jewish state’s
Iron Shield anti-missile system. Moreover, Palestinian fighters have on several
occasions reached Israel through their tunnels killing a significant number of
Israeli soldiers - on Israeli soil.

In addition, international public opinion is turning against Israel as
casualties in Gaza mount and the recognition seeps in that Hamas will have to
be a party to any lasting ceasefire or credible effort to resolve the
Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Similarly, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are seeing reduced whatever street
credibility they had because of their silent endorsement of the Israeli assault
on Hamas which they view as an extension of their effort to destroy the Muslim
Brotherhood; at the same time Qatar is gaining popularity with its support of
Hamas, an offshoot of the Brotherhood.

A
third Intifada?

The newly-found resolve has translated into Palestinians across the board
demanding that any lasting ceasefire be linked to their political demands,
first and foremost among which a lifting of the seven-year old Egyptian-Israeli
blockade of Gaza. The demands are endorsed not only by Hamas but also the
Palestine Authority, which, incapable of coming to the aid of the embattled population
in Gaza, has been weakened and appears helpless as Hamas fighters take on the
Israelis.

With mass protests in support of Gaza across the West Bank, both Hamas and the
Authority need to be watchful that the demonstrations do not turn against them given
that their seven-year old feud has rendered Palestinians ineffective in peace
efforts and effectively played into Israel’s divide-and-rule strategy.

While some analysts believe that economic progress on the West Bank makes it
unlikely that its residents will want to risk their well-being with a third
Intifada or popular revolt, both Hamas and the Authority may see a civil
disobedience campaign as a way to keep Palestinian anger focussed on Israel.

Gaza may have aligned the interests of Hamas and the Authority and this
was reflected in the little-noticed Palestinian demand that Israel recognise
the reconciliation between the two groups as part of any lasting ceasefire.
Israel had denounced a reconciliation agreement that earlier this year created
the basis for the formation of a national unity government backed by both Hamas
and Al Fatah, the backbone of Mr. Abbas’ Palestine Authority. The primary
motive of Israeli assault on Gaza is widely believed to have been the
undermining of the reconciliation.

That effort has clearly backfired and, if anything, strengthened the basis for
a greater degree of Palestinian unity. “Hamas is no longer a terror group
carrying out attacks, it’s a mini-army in a mini-state,” said Amir Oren, a
columnist for Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz.

Paradigm
shift
The turning of international public opinion against Israel; the private,
if not public, dismay in Western capitals at the heavy handedness of the
Israelis in Gaza; Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu’s potentially
politically damaging post mortem of the war; as well as the strengthened
Palestinian resolve; all have the makings of a paradigm shift in the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

How the shift plays out will depend on whether the war in Gaza sparks a third
Intifada as well as on developments in Israel, including the fallout of the
post-mortem and the impact in Israel of the loss of significant empathy in
international public opinion as well as among its most important allies, the
United States and Europe.

In a bid to manage a unilateral Israeli end to the fighting in Gaza, Netanyahu
and other Israeli officials have already embarked on their ‘victory campaign’
claiming significant damage to thousands of alleged terror targets; the
destruction of dozens of tunnels; a strengthening of ties with Arab states such
as Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia; and a warning that if Hamas continues to
attack Israel Palestinians will pay an intolerable price.

That narrative could be easily punctured by a Palestinian attack once the guns
have fallen silent. As another Ha’aretz columnist Yossi Verter warned: “The
dangers facing (Netanyahu) are immeasurable: if the rocket fire on the south
continues even after IDF (Israel Defence Forces) forces withdraw from the
(Gaza) Strip, he is likely to be held responsible for national humiliation,
which would cause him to lose support from within his coalition, his party, and
ultimately, the Prime Minister’s Office as well.”

The question is whether this would lead to the formation of an Israeli government
more inclined to make the painful concessions necessary for an
Israeli-Palestinian peace - or one that is even more intransigent and hard line
than the one Netanyahu heads. Whichever way, it would together with the
newly-found Palestinian resolve, constitute a paradigm shift.James M.
Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
as Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, co-director of the Institute
of Fan Culture of the University of Würzburg and the author of the blog, The
Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer, and a forthcoming book with the same
title.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Sporticos

Ads

Soccer Results

The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer does not promote, link to or provide videos from any online sources who distribute illegal streaming content over the Internet with domains registered in the United States of America

Top 100 Soccer Sites

Subscribe To

Subscribe by Email

About Me

James M DorseyWelcome to The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer by James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Soccer in the Middle East and North Africa is played as much on as off the pitch. Stadiums are a symbol of the battle for political freedom; economic opportunity; ethnic, religious and national identity; and gender rights. Alongside the mosque, the stadium was until the Arab revolt erupted in late 2010 the only alternative public space for venting pent-up anger and frustration. It was the training ground in countries like Egypt and Tunisia where militant fans prepared for a day in which their organization and street battle experience would serve them in the showdown with autocratic rulers. Soccer has its own unique thrill – a high-stakes game of cat and mouse between militants and security forces and a struggle for a trophy grander than the FIFA World Cup: the future of a region. This blog explores the role of soccer at a time of transition from autocratic rule to a more open society. It also features James’s daily political comment on the region’s developments. Contact: incoherentblog@gmail.comView my complete profile