Friday, February 3, 2012

TORNADO WARNING
TXC041-051-040100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0022.120204T0036Z-120204T0100Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 700 PM CST
* AT 633 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR SNOOK... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WELLBORN AND COLLEGE STATION.
PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3068 9631 3050 9623 3045 9649 3052 9655
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 241DEG 12KT 3050 9648

Latest Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecast is unusually specific today, with the NCEP GFS Ensembles (GEFS) having a very tight forecast with all the members. That said, I took it upon myself to bring up the forecast.

We are currently in a moderate Phase 6 MJO. Phase 6 is typically associated with above normal precipitation in the South Plains into the Midwest and parts of the Ohio Valley. Temperature effects include much above normal temperatures in the East US, which we have been seeing with record highs even today.
The Forecast calls for the MJO to transition into a strong Phase 7 and sliding into a still strong Phase 8. With the GFS Ensembles, I feel pretty confident that this Phase 7 transition will occur. I am even optimistic that we will see a Phase 8 transition. Phase 8 involves a cool East US and a dry country overall.

The models are trending towards a Phase 7 transition but are not as strong with the Phase 7 nor as eager to go into a Phase 8 transition. That said, I think that the effects of Phase 7 MJO will become less dominant going into the Feb. 9-12 period.

Side note: For those who saw that I would not be posting, I decided against that decision as I was not thinking in the right mindset.

Discussion...
The storm system is not changed from what was shown last night. It remains tilted at around a neutral angle, not showing any defined positive or negative tilt at the time.
Water vapor imagery suggests a dry slot is attempting to fill in and cut off some precipitation in West Kansas and west Nebraska. Main bulk of moisture in the air is now moving along a trough extending from the system itself, which is now in Oklahoma, into Kansas, far north Missouri and Central Illinois.
I think the dry slot will be enhanced soon enough as additional air is drawn north from the Gulf of Mexico. The dry slot will definitely hamper precipitation amounts that may have fallen otherwise.
Surface temperatures indicate that West Nebraska and Colorado are set to begin receiving snow. Radar imagery shows that snow is indeed falling in western Nebraska. Radar also detects that some thundersnow may be possible near North Platte, NE.

Totals...
Up to 18 inches of snow still looks possible per the latest RUC model run on the NE/CO border, particularly in the region of Nebraska that eventually becomes the Panhandle of NE.

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