Today Weather

Mostly sunny. Winds SE 20 to 30 km/h turning E early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching 23 to 32.

Tomorrow

11°

Min

25°

Max

Mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower in the far southwest in the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the far south in the morning. Winds E/NE 15 to 25 km/h tending NW/NE in the middle of the day then tending NW/SW in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching 29 to 35.

7 day forecast

Today:
Mostly sunny. Winds SE 20 to 30 km/h turning E early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching 23 to 32.

Forecast for Trafalgar (30.8067°S, 121.5416°E, 326m AMSL)

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Summary

Minimum

11°

14°

13°

11°

5°

6°

6°

Maximum

25°

33°

27°

18°

18°

19°

21°

Chance of rain

10%

5%

40%

20%

5%

5%

5%

Likely amount

< 1mm

< 1mm

< 1mm

< 1mm

< 1mm

< 1mm

< 1mm

UV index

High

High

High

High

-

-

-

Frost risk

Nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

Slight

Nil

Nil

9am

3pm

9am

3pm

9am

3pm

9am

3pm

9am

3pm

9am

3pm

9am

3pm

Wind speed

27(km/h)

22(km/h)

20(km/h)

15(km/h)

16(km/h)

27(km/h)

32(km/h)

26(km/h)

17(km/h)

13(km/h)

19(km/h)

16(km/h)

20(km/h)

14(km/h)

Wind direction

E

ENE

ENE

NNW

W

WNW

WSW

WSW

SSW

S

SE

SSE

ESE

ESE

Relative humidity

57%

35%

43%

18%

52%

19%

42%

25%

45%

27%

53%

29%

48%

22%

Dew point

8°C

9°C

9°C

6°C

10°C

2°C

1°C

-2°C

1°C

-1°C

4°C

1°C

3°C

-1°C

First light

5:28am

5:27am

5:26am

5:24am

5:23am

5:22am

5:21am

Sunrise

5:52am

5:51am

5:50am

5:49am

5:47am

5:46am

5:45am

Sunset

5:47pm

5:47pm

5:48pm

5:48pm

5:49pm

5:49pm

5:50pm

Last light

6:11pm

6:11pm

6:12pm

6:12pm

6:13pm

6:14pm

6:14pm

28 Day Rainfall forecast

Trafalgar Rain Forecast

Trafalgar 28-day Rainfall Forecast

SUN

MON

TUE

WED

THU

FRI

SAT

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28
LOW

29
LOW

30

Oct 1

2

3
LOW

4
LOW

5
LOW

6
LOW

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT

NIL < 25%

LOW 25% to 50%

MEDIUM 50% to 75%

HIGH ≥ 75%

Issued Sep15

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

Summary:

Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 October to 7 October, 12 October to 16 October, and 18 October to 22 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 October to 12 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 September to 30 September, 10 October to 14 October, and 14 October to 18 October.

12 Month Rainfall Forecast

Trafalgar Rain Forecast

Trafalgar 12-month Rainfall Forecast

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

2019

2020

2

4

4

6

5

6

7

5

5

5

6

7

10

5

0

1

2 - 3

4 - 7

8 - 9

10

Well below normal

Below normal

Near normal

Above normal

Well above normal

Issue Notes - Issued Sep 10

ENSO status: Neutral
IOD status: Positive
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued the cooling trend over the central Pacific during August, with areas in the eastern equatorial Pacific exhibiting below average temperatures for the first time in about two years.
The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.2 and 0.1 through the month of August. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -4.4 during the past month, which remains in neutral territory.
Current consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Although, three out of eight international models maintain a slightly warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019, none of these are likely to reach El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. Moreover, the IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome.
To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until the beginning of the summer.
The climate outlook for spring favours below average rainfall across the southern half, and in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during the end of winter and spring due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest.
On the other hand, far southern Victoria and western Tasmania could see above average rainfall during this period as a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) over Antarctica looks to enhance the negative phase of the southern annular mode (SAM) over the coming months.

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

Summary:

Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 October to 7 October, 12 October to 16 October, and 18 October to 22 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 October to 12 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 September to 30 September, 10 October to 14 October, and 14 October to 18 October.

Trafalgar Rain Forecast

Trafalgar 12-month Rainfall Forecast

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

2019

2020

2

4

4

6

5

6

7

5

5

5

6

7

10

5

0

1

2 - 3

4 - 7

8 - 9

10

Well below normal

Below normal

Near normal

Above normal

Well above normal

Issue Notes - Issued Sep 10

ENSO status: Neutral
IOD status: Positive
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued the cooling trend over the central Pacific during August, with areas in the eastern equatorial Pacific exhibiting below average temperatures for the first time in about two years.
The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.2 and 0.1 through the month of August. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -4.4 during the past month, which remains in neutral territory.
Current consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Although, three out of eight international models maintain a slightly warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019, none of these are likely to reach El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. Moreover, the IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome.
To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until the beginning of the summer.
The climate outlook for spring favours below average rainfall across the southern half, and in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during the end of winter and spring due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest.
On the other hand, far southern Victoria and western Tasmania could see above average rainfall during this period as a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) over Antarctica looks to enhance the negative phase of the southern annular mode (SAM) over the coming months.