Beau Dodson's weather analysis for the southern Illinois and western Kentucky area.

February 7, 2013: Rain chances Thursday night

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By Beau Dodson

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Feb. 6, 2013
12:01 a.m.

February 7, 2013This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer

Good Thursday morning everyone! I have made a few changes to the blog. I am going to try place the weather tracking tools at the bottom three quarters of the page. The top quarter of the page will be my current thoughts and comments concerning what I am seeing on the models and the latest data.Rain chances will be on the increase later tonight and tonight as a weather maker moves in from the west/southwest. Rainfall between today and Friday morning will be in the 0.25"-0.50" range.

The next significant weather event will be on Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms should move into the area from west to east.It appears that most of the precipitation should end by Sunday night and Monday morning. It will turn colder behind the cold front - once the precipitation has moved east.Right now it appears that dew points may not recover enough for a significant severe weather risk. With that said - there may be a couple of severe thunderstorms in or near the region. I believe the bigger risk would be further south of our local counties.Here is the forecast dew point map from the GFS - you can see the higher dew points to our south. This iimage is from www.wright-weather.comTypically in the winter I like to see dew points in the 55-60 degree range. They can be lower if instability is present. Instability may not be present on Sunday. Click image for full size view

I will continue to monitor and update as we move forward. Rainfall with the Sunday/Monday system should be in the 0.40"-0.80" range.

I am tracking a possible snow event for next week. This is the latest GFS model showing snow in our region next Tuesday night and Wednesday. LONG way off - don't get your snow-hopes up just yet. Stay tuned and we will track it together.It isn't too soon to do a snow dance. If you are a snow fan - then dance away.This is the GFS model from www.wright-weather.com The pink and purple over our region - that would likely be snow. Storm track and intensity would be key to this event. Many days to watch it - confidence is low.Click image for full size view

The longer range is starting to show some colder shots of air after this week. A couple of storm systems may track south of our region. This might mean snow for some areas of the south-lands and southeast United States. A bit early to make a call on storm tracks. Stay tuned!

We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !--- We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS------ We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? Here is a video with more information

The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States..To view the interactive warning map - click here..

.You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here. .Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here.

If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!