Nicole’s Direct Hit

Hurricane Nicole passed very close to Bermuda midday on Thursday 13 October as a strong category three hurricane. Preliminary center fixes indicate that Nicole passed about 9 nm (10 mi) east of Bermuda at noon on Thursday with maximum sustained winds near 105 kts (120 mph). At this time, Nicole’s eye was about 30 nm (35 mi) wide, and so Bermuda briefly entered the calm of the eye, but not before enduring hours of violent winds and torrential rain that led to isolated structural damage, significant utilities disruptions, and widespread flooding in coastal areas, low-lying areas, and poor-drainage areas.

Visible satellite image of Nicole near time of closest approach. At this time, the entire island was experiencing the relative calm of the eye. An approximate track of Hurricane Hunter flight through Nicole is overlaid in red, starting at A in the bottom right.

After peaking as an extremely dangerous category four hurricane the night before impacts on Bermuda were felt, Nicole began to weaken on its final approach on the island. Vertical wind shear had markedly increased during this time, disrupting the circulation and degrading the convective organization. The solid ring of deep convection around the eye, aka the eyewall, opened up into a semi-circle that became more poorly defined as the hurricane approached.

Traditional hurricane structure and observations from ongoing Hurricane Hunter missions suggest that the strongest winds of Hurricane Nicole missed Bermuda to the east as the island saw effects from the northern and then western parts of the eyewall, not the eastern eyewall where, in this case, the strongest winds would have been found. However, damaging hurricane force winds were observed for several hours, mainly as the northern eye wall of the hurricane crossed the island.

Peak gusts in this part of the hurricane were measured up to 118 kts (136 mph) at an unofficial station at Commissioner’s Point, while the official peak winds measured at the airport reached gusts of 91 kts (105 mph). The peak official 10-minute sustained winds reached 68 kts (78 mph) at the airport. Areas exposed to easterly winds, particularly near hill tops, likely saw the highest winds in Nicole.

Additionally, the Bermuda Weather Service was able to get an estimate of rainfall total at their office. During the hurricane, 6.77″ of rain was caught. This makes 13 October 2016, the wettest October day on record, beating the previous record of 5.24″ set on 29 October 1967. This rain comes on the heels of a very wet week prior to the hurricane and a record wet September as 11.80″ of rain was observed for the month, beating the previous record of 11.15″ in September 1983.

An official and comprehensive post-storm summary will be released by the National Hurricane Center in the coming months.