Encircled for almost ten days, thousands of Ukraine government soldiers, I read from the best sources, as I write are in the process of either surrendering tothe pro-Russian rebels at Debaltseve, East Ukraineor attemptinga breakout.

This closes up the "Debaltseve Pocket" which I wrote about inPost-#283 last week. The total loss was predicted as early as January 27th by a German military intelligence analyst writing under the alias Conflict Reporter, one of the best sources on the war. The end of the fighting at Debaltseve will free up many thousands of pro-Russian rebels for action elsewhere in the present Ukraine war.

(German Field Marshal von Paulus was commander of 250,000 Germans and allies at Stalingrad when the the Soviets sealed the encirclement of that place on November 23, 1942. Exhaustion, cold, sickness, constant fighting, and a frightening lack of food and all other supplies caused a nightmare in the "Stalingrad Pocket" in December and January, and air resupply couldn't handle the burden. The pocket began to collapse in late January 1943, with 110,000 Germans and 20,000 allies surrendering (the rest of the original 250,000 had since perished). These 130,000 or so, now POWs, were sent to the Soviet gulags on a thousand-mile Bataan-Death-March-style ordeal in which tens of thousand died; most of the rest died while in the gulags. It was only twelve years later, in 1955, that the 5,000 or so of these men who were still living were finally repatriated to Germany.)

Rebel leaders in East Ukraine in 2014-15 have said that Ukraine Army prisoners taken in this war will be tasked with "rebuilding the ruined cities" in the warzone after independence, i.e. forced labor.

Stalin must've refused to release the Stalingrad prisoners all those years because they were symbolic of the greatest single Soviet victory in the war (Khruschev finally released them two years into his term as Soviet leader). Debaltseve is likewise a symbol of Russian superiority of arms, as they may see it, and perhaps of Ukraine's inability to win the present war.

One group of Ukraine Government Army POWs is marched out of the Debaltseve Pocket, Feb. 17 2015

Ukraine Government Army soldiers inspected by rebel captors after Debaltseve surrender (from a Rebel Youtube video)

Another easy comment to make is: The Ukrainians here made the same mistake the Germans did at Stalingrad. Both refused to admit, early enough, that the situation was desperate. Surrender came after weeks of the generals whistling past the graveyard (German intelligence analyst Conflict Reporter and others often criticize them for aloofness).

Conspiracy Theoriesabout the Ukraine Army Command The most obvious explanation for the fall of Debaltseve is a combination of (a) the Ukrainian Army's incompetence, (b) heavy Russian intervention plus (c) Russian determination to have their Stalingrad 2015. Depending on your point of view, which side you favor and/or oppose, it seems to me that one will emphasize one or the other of these. All may be valid and explain things well enough. There are also two "conspiracy theories" circulating among serious people.

(1) Mixed Loyalties, or, as some might call it, "treason". The Kiev military hierarchy is full of old hands from the Soviet era with deep ties to Russian state security (the successor to the KGB), and perhaps vague personal loyalties to "Soviet identity" (an identity that persists strongly in places into the 2010s, as I learned from my time in Kazakhstan). Hundreds in the Ukraine Army have been arrested for spying in the past year. One high-placed officer was arrested two weeks ago for passing secret information on Ukrainian positions to the rebels, which was used to coordinate attacks. (If true, this seems to be blatant treason, no two ways about it, and in any nation at war would call for the firing squad, wouldn't it?). In other words, this conspiracy theory has it that the Ukraine Army's own general staff has elements in it that want Ukraine to not win the war as it exists at present -- i.e. a war pitting Ukraine as a supposed NATO proxy against the Rebels as a supposed (definite) Russian proxy. These elements in the Ukraine Army, the conspiracy theory holds, subtly sabotage the war effort. This seems a wild theory but has believers in Ukraine itself.

Here is the story of a Ukraine Army Lieutenant Colonel arrested for spying on Feb. 4th, 2015:

[Recently-arrested Ukraine Army] Lt. Col. Mykhailo Chornobai had been at the center of an espionage ring in the capital and had passed military secrets directly to an agent of the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic, including the locations of volunteer regiments that were then used to pinpoint artillery attacks. [...] Colonel Chornobai was among about 300 people working in the military sphere who had been arrested since the start of the conflict.The arrest further deepened mistrust of the leadership in Kiev that is already pervasive among the poorly equipped rank-and-file soldiers and midlevel commanders fighting on the front line. And it reinforced a view prevalent on the battlefield that the military leadership cannot be trusted to manage any weapons delivered by Western allies because of their ties to the Russian military and security service, the F.S.B. [...]

“Very often one cannot tell where the F.S.B. stops and one of our military units begins,” said Semyon Semenchenko, a pro-government paramilitary leader [of the Volunteer Donbas Battalion] and member of the Ukrainian Parliament, referring to the Russian successor to the K.G.B. [...] [NYTimes]

(Conspiracy Theory #2) Debaltseve was "deliberately sacrificed to get Western support" by the Kiev generals. A one-time loss of thousands of soldiers days after a so-called ceasefire agreement might shock other European states into increasing support for Ukraine.This is too cynical to be true, one hopes.

Ukraine government tank near the Debaltseve Pocket, mid-February 2015

Emperor's New Clothes It seems everyone knows that Russia is a defacto belligerent in this war, with constant flows of men and material to the rebels to include lots of shiny new equipment and alleged active-duty Russian soldiers. The big players (NATO, Western governments) and Putin himself don't want to quite admit this, in a mutual Emperor's New Clothes situation. Definitely a large majority of rebel fighters are actually from Russia, of course. Some are Middle Eastern (Caucauses) by appearance and others even East Asiatic, which is a dead giveaway that they are from Russia's Far East.

Then again, the rebels' entire point is that East Ukraine is majority-Russian, and the border is artificial, which is true.

Ukraine's Volunteers Meanwhile, the Ukraine's volunteer units in this war (which were raised outside the purview of the Army during the crisis last year) it seems continue to have high morale relative to the hapless government soldiers.

I recently learned that an American citizen, age 55, a former U.S. Army Ranger, of Ukrainian heritage, and an early member of the pro-Ukraine Donbas Volunteer Battalion, was killed last August, just weeks after giving an interview with Canadian journalists (here it is on Youtube). His name wasMark Paslawsky, born in New Jersey but moved to Ukraine in the 1990s. He was one the 1,000 or so on the Ukrainian side killed in the disaster at Ilovaisk.

The best of the volunteer units is the Azov Volunteer Battalion, which continues to fight in the south.

A platoon from the Azov Vol,unteer Regiment poses for a picture before deployment at the frontline town of Shyrokyne, due to east of Mariupol, East Ukraine, Feb. 2015 The sign reads: "Shyrokyne, 1 [km to the right]"

A map of last week's Azov offensive (blue: Ukraine-held; brown: Rebel-held; orange is the offensive's gains).

Ahuge inflow of resources and firepower from Russia followed the successful offensive, which had moved the front eastward 10 km. Azov reported that the town of Shyrokyne (Широкине) was subsequently subject to such an intense artillery bombardment from this new equipment that 70% of the buildings in that town of 1,400 people were destroyed. Azov has since lost control of the town and fighting continues.