NUCLEAR EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS&SOCIAL MEDIA STORMS

​TECHNOLOGY FOR GLOBAL SECURITY SPECIAL REPORTS

In October 2018, former state actors and current global industry leaders discussed the risks of social media interacting with the early warning systems of nuclear armed states and how the potential changes in the propensity of leaders could potentially lead to war.

The discussion included officials who have experienced "false positives" in multiple continents. The discussion addressed cases where social media information cascades led to potential or actual catastrophic outcomes (infectious diseases, terrorist recruitment, mass killings).

Officials from the U.S. situation rooms at the state and federal level, as well as top leadership at private entities globally identified the scope and impact that social media has on international strategic stability. Inspired by these conversations, Technology for Global Security is releasing a four part special report series that will focus on the underlying themes that were discussed. The series aims to be instructive to decision-makers who aim to stem the tide of real-world violence, showing us what we can learn from the systematic manipulation of digital communities. ​This discussion was hosted by Technology for Global Security in a Social Media Storms and Nuclear Early Warning Systems Workshop held at the Hewlett Foundation campus. The workshop was co-sponsored by the Nautilus Institute, the Preventive Defense Project - Stanford University, and was funded by the MacArthur Foundation.

Brittan Heller ​The Online Targeting of Journalists with Anti-Semitic Intimidation, October 25th, 2018Renée DirestaOf Virality and Viruses: The Anti-Vaccine Movement and Social Media, November 7th, 2018Sunil DubeyCities, Social Media, and Preparedness for Major Threats, November 15th, 2018Peter HayesA Deep Dive and Speed Scenarios Workshop, January 8th, 2019

Summary​

This workshop was convened because social media burst onto the stage of nuclear warfare in 2018. In the Asia-Pacific region alone, six instances of social media playing a role in nuclear-prone conflicts occurred between August 2017 and January 2018. For decades, strategists have worried about the possibility that states armed with nuclear weapons might mistakenly launch a nuclear strike due to a false alarm originating in its early warning system or due to degraded decision-making. READ MORE

To investigate how social media might play out in the world of nuclear early warning the workshop considered the use of social media to promote extremist views and behavior in promoting anti-vaccination, anti-Semitism, gang, ethnic, and terrorist violence in cities. From this evidence, two sets of lessons were drawn. The first focused on the issue of false data and false alarms leading to conflict as well as conflict escalation. The second lesson primarily focused on what antidotes exist for false alarms on social media or via other ways of creating an authoritative and credible reference knowledge.

OF VIRALITY & VIRUSES: THE ANTI-VACCINE MOVEMENT AND SOCIAL MEDIA​

Renée DiRestaThe Director of Research at New Knowledge; Head of Policy at Data for Democracy​

Summary​

In this essay, Renée DiResta argues that a confluence of three factors - mass consolidation of audiences onto a handful of social networks; the adoption of curatorial algorithms as a primary means of disseminating and engaging with content; and the ease of precision targeting of users via the leveraging of proprietary profiles built from their own media consumption signals - has resulted in an information ecosystem that can be manipulated by a variety of actors with relative ease. This paper looks at the social media presence of one specific group of actors, American anti-vaccine activists, as a case study to better understand strategies, tactics, and impact, as well as counter-messaging and interventions. READ MORE

Renée DiResta is the Director of Research at New Knowledge, and the Head of Policy at the nonprofit Data for Democracy. Renée investigates the spread of disinformation and malign narratives across social networks, and assists policymakers in understanding and responding to the issue. She co-founded Vaccinate California. ​

​Photo Courtesy of Guest of a Guest

CITIES, SOCIAL MEDIA, AND PREPAREDNESS FOR MAJOR THREATS

Sunil Dubey​Professor at University of Sydney and at ICS Western Sydney University; Former Metropolis Ambassador and Advisor to Metropolis Association

Summary​

In this essay, Sunil Dubey notes that by 2030, over 65% of the total world population will live in cities. Cities confront the rising influence and penetration of social media platforms on all aspects of urban life. Although this virtual urban life makes cities smarter, more efficient, and more sustainable in many respects, it also subverts the safety, security and resilience of our cities. In light of recent incidents where social media played a vital role, he lays out six principles for safer cities to become better prepared for threats propagated by social media. READ MORE

Sunil is an urban thought leader in connecting global cities on local leadership and capacity building. His practice and academic specialization is in governance of public assets, urban diplomacy and innovation including smart cities and sustainability.

THE ONLINE TARGETING OF JOURNALISTS WITH ANTI-SEMITIC INTIMIDATION​

Brittan HellerThe Director for Technology and Society at the Anti-Defamation League​

Summary​

Brittan Heller argues that an examination of online anti-Semitic attacks of journalists on Twitter, leading up to the 2016 U.S. presidential election, was one of the first indicators of the deliberate targeting of minority groups on social media. Examining this incident, with the benefit of hindsight, provides insights into the nature, purpose, and intended impact of online troll storms, including: professionalized trolling, enmity toward the professional press, “useful idiot”-based virality, and bridging online conduct and offline harms. Heller asserts that the incident should be instructive to decision-makers who aim to stem the tide of real-world violence, showing us what we can learn from the systematic online targeting of minority populations. READ MORE