October 2014 EHS Data Vs. The Ten-Year October Average

Every month NAR produces existing home sales, median sales prices, and inventory figures. The reporting of this data is based on homes sold the previous month and the data is explained in comparison to the same month one year ago. We also provide a perspective of the market relative to last month, adjusting for seasonal factors, with additional commentary on the potential direction of the housing market.

The data below shows what our current month data looks like in comparison to the last ten October months, and how that might compare to the “ten-year October average”, which is an average of the data from the past ten Octobers.

The total number of homes sold in the United States for October 2014 is higher than the ten-year October average. Regionally, a similar trend is seen in the Midwest and the South, while the Northeast and the West are the only regions to show current sales below the ten-year October average.

Because sales were buoyed by the first-time home buyer tax credit in late 2009, the October low point of sales was in 2010. Since the low point of home sales in 2010 there have been four consecutive year-over-year gains for all regions except the West region, which had a slight decline this October.

The median home price this October is higher than the ten-year October average median price for the U.S. and all regions except the Northeast, which was modestly close.

The median price year-over-year percentage change shows home prices struggling from 2006 to 2011. Since then home prices began to improve, however, price growth has been decelerating over the last year. For the U.S. and the four regions the best price percentage increase took place in 2005, except for in the West, which had its best gains in 2012. This October the Midwest has the highest year-over-year price percentage change over the U.S. and the other three regions.

Inventory of homes for sale for the U.S. is currently lower than the ten-year October average. In 2004 the U.S. had the fastest pace of homes sold relative to inventory, while in 2007 the U.S. had the slowest pace with the months’ supply at 10.6. The ten-year October average months’ supply is 7.2 and this October we are at 5.1 months’ supply.