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Good Thursday morning.

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THE REALITY -- ‘IT’S ALL UP TO THE WHITE HOUSE NOW’ -- The health-care bill is really down to a coin flip. The mood in the Capitol yesterday was tense -- not because people were worried about failure, but because the situation was so fluid it was difficult to get a real read on what was transpiring. Even the smartest and savviest vote counters had no idea whether they will be able to pass this bill to replace the Affordable Care Act. As of publishing time this morning, House Republicans planned to bring this bill to the floor Thursday no matter what the whip count looked like. We wouldn’t be surprised if the vote came after the market closed. (NOTE: Big thanks to John Bresnahan and the best-in-class POLITICO Hill team for keeping us honest and abreast of all twists and turns.)

HERE’S THE DEAL. The conservative House Freedom Caucus -- which will meet with PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP this morning at 11:30 a.m. -- wants to not only eliminate coverage requirements for health insurers in the Obamacare bill (known as essential health benefits), but they also want to repeal the law’s Title One, which includes rules on coverage for pre-existing conditions and allowing children to remain on their parents’ plan up to age 26. As of early this morning, the leadership and White House were cool to that proposal.

THE NUMBERS. The dramatic changes to this bill throw the whip count in serious flux. House Republican leaders have now lost the support of moderates like Reps. Chris Smith and Frank LoBiando of New Jersey, Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania and David Young of Iowa. Watch for other moderate Republicans who see this as an opportunity to ditch the bill without major political consequence. There are 237 House Republicans and 215 need to vote yes to pass this bill. They can lose 22 lawmakers.

THE HYPOCRISY. Republicans are doing exactly what they accused Democrats of doing in 2010. They are rewriting this bill behind closed doors in the dead of night. They are using the powerful Rules Committee to give themselves remarkable authority to bring up and vote on any bill in the same day -- known, quite ominously, as “martial law.”

THE STAKES ...

-- THE FREEDOM CAUCUS. To call this a critical moment for the House Freedom Caucus -- the clutch of conservative members in the House -- would be like calling Michael Jordan a weekend men’s league warrior. If the Freedom Caucus succeeds in getting the changes it wants and doesn’t put up the votes for the bill, their future negotiating stance will be seriously diminished. Even if they get half of what they want -- just eliminating essential health benefits -- and don’t put up some votes, it will be problematic in Trump’s eyes. But if they succeed here, they have the keys to the castle. If they get the changes they want, and help push this bill across the finish line, their negotiating tactics -- forcing changes at the last minute -- will be completely validated.

-- PAUL RYAN. The House speaker crafted the legislative sequencing of 2017 -- health care repeal first and tax reform second. People close to Ryan know a defeat here will be a critical blow for the Wisconsin Republican, but they say that he cares little about his long-term political standing in the House, so he’s willing to get down and dirty. But there’s no doubt that not passing this bill would sow distrust in the West Wing, and put in doubt the leadership’s ability to shepherd the rest of the GOP’s agenda. A victory here would be big for Ryan -- at least in the short term.

-- DONALD TRUMP. The president ran on being able to handle these situations better than anyone else. He always said that it was him, and him alone, who could close these deals. Remember? ‘We don’t make good deals anymore … Obamacare is a disaster -- I’ll take care of it.’ OK, well we’ll see today whether that’s true. At this point, it’s Trump versus a group of more than two dozen conservative lawmakers who have spent years stifling John Boehner and Paul Ryan. The GOP leadership is calling Trump ‘the closer’ -- a subtle nod to their belief that it’s his job to get this thing through. A loss here would throw that -- and Trump’s entire legislative agenda -- into question.

-- THE AGENDA. Republicans have talked about repealing Obamacare for nearly a decade. If they can’t get it done, how can we expect tax reform to get done? Forget the silly August deadline that the New York wing of Trump’s White House is peddling. If they can’t get health care done in the House, where the GOP enjoys a large majority, how can they rewrite the incredibly complex tax code?

-- DEMOCRATS are holding strong against the bill. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) can smell blood in the water. Expect to hear more about how Trumpcare will tax older Americans, provide less coverage and cost more. By the way, Pelosi dealt with similar dynamics in 2009 during Obamacare -- her liberals wanted a public health-insurance option. They promised to never vote for any bill without it. Over a few months, they systematically broke down.

-- SOMETHING TO REMEMBER -- The last time Republicans owned something big on health care was in 2003 with President George W. Bush’s Medicare prescription drug bill. GOP leadership had to basically lock the doors and hold open the vote for hours to flip three or four holdouts. The political dynamics were far different back then. The GOP had a strong whip in Tom Delay, and they had goodies to dole out, like earmarks.

-- THE REAL QUESTION. What is the Republican endgame here? They’ve made so many changes to the bill that nearly everyone concedes that, even if House Republicans pass it, it is basically dead on arrival in the Senate. It’s hard to remember a more consequential vote or issue where there wasn’t a long-term political strategy. Even if this somehow becomes law, it will almost certainly face issues in implementation. Republicans are coming up against the hard reality that voters want more health care for less cost, which is virtually impossible to deliver on.

THE LATEST -- “White House shift to right on health care angers moderates,” by Kyle Cheney, Rachael Bade and John Bresnahan. http://politi.co/2nfw99Q … “Inside Trump’s last-ditch bid to avoid a health care disaster,” by Rachael Bade, John Bresnahan and Kyle Cheney http://politi.co/2mTG1mh

--“Is Trumpcare already here?” by Politico Pulse author Dan Diamond: “No matter what happens to the Republicans’ troubled health bill in Congress, Trumpcare is here to stay. The Trump administration has already begun to transform the health insurance market, wielding executive power to rewrite coverage rules, slash Obamacare’s marketing budget and signal an all-out assault on his predecessor’s health care law. And Republicans have high expectations the administration will take additional measures to unwind Obamacare, such as targeting its contraception coverage requirement at the center of two recent religious liberty cases at the Supreme Court.” http://politi.co/2mXhxZR … Subscribe to Pulse http://politi.co/2mVjdWD

-- THE PAUL STREET JOURNAL: “Keeping Our Promise to Repeal ObamaCare: Our bill guts the failing law and enacts conservative reform without pulling the rug out from under anyone,” by Speaker Paul Ryan in the Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/2nMdlQV

WHAT DEMOCRATS ARE DOING -- The Democratic National Committee is launching robocalls to roughly 50 vulnerable Republican House districts this morning. The calls to constituents in those districts feature DNC Chair Tom Perez telling voters about the “disastrous bill and how it would affect people between the age of 50-65, urging them to contact Congress.”

-- AMERICAN BRIDGE -- the outside Democratic group -- is releasing a digital ad targeting disaffected Trump voters (including people who voted for President Barack Obama but also voted for Trump) with an emphasis on congressional districts with vulnerable Republican incumbents. The ad http://bit.ly/2na5nhm

****** A message from PhRMA: New analysis from IHS Markit shows providing access to discounted medicine prices at the pharmacy could save seniors with diabetes more than $350 annually. Sharing negotiated rebates could also save Medicare nearly $1,000 annually for every senior taking diabetes medication, reducing total health care spending by approximately $20B over the next 10 years. https://letstalkaboutmedicare.org/ ******

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE … -- “Koch network pledges to defend Republicans who vote against GOP health bill,” by Kevin Robillard: http://politi.co/2o7xkWq

THE TRUTH BOMB -- RICH LOWRY in Politico, “The Health Care Albatross”: “Republicans should get used to it. Their agony on health care is just beginning. For the past seven years, the party benefited from its powerlessness, which usefully maximized its ability to criticize Obamacare and minimized its responsibility to do anything about it. Now, with unified control of government, the party will pay the piper. Nothing good will come of the Obamacare repeal-and-replace debate. If anything resembling the current bill passes and is signed into law, Republicans will spend years trying to fix it and live it down. If the bill fails, the rest of President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda may sink with it.” http://politi.co/2nFNf1v

TRUMP’S THURSDAY -- In addition to his meeting with the Freedom Caucus, Trump will have lunch with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and billionaire investment manager Nelson Peltz. At 3:25 p.m., he’ll meet with truckers and CEOS.

HMM -- “U.S. officials: Info suggests Trump associates may have coordinated with Russians,” by CNN’s Pamela Brown, Evan Perez and Shimon Prokupecz: “The FBI has information that indicates associates of President Donald Trump communicated with suspected Russian operatives to possibly coordinate the release of information damaging to Hillary Clinton’s campaign, U.S. officials told CNN. This is partly what FBI Director James Comey was referring to when he made a bombshell announcement Monday before Congress that the FBI is investigating the Trump campaign's ties to Russia, according to one source. The FBI is now reviewing that information, which includes human intelligence, travel, business and phone records and accounts of in-person meetings, according to those U.S. officials. The information is raising the suspicions of FBI counterintelligence investigators that the coordination may have taken place, though officials cautioned that the information was not conclusive and that the investigation is ongoing.” http://cnn.it/2ng62PZ

-- “[Adam] Schiff: There is now ‘more than circumstantial evidence’ of Trump-Russia collusion,” by Madeline Conway: “‘I can tell you that the case is more than that,’ Schiff told Chuck Todd on MSNBC. ‘And I can’t go into the particulars, but there is more than circumstantial evidence now.’ When Todd followed up, asking if he had ‘seen direct evidence of collusion,’ Schiff would not say so directly, but insisted that he has seen some ‘evidence that is not circumstantial’ and is worth investigating.” http://politi.co/2mXmCl2

--SPEAKING OF WHICH -- PLAYBOOK INBOX -- “A personal note from Roger Stone”: “I am anxious to rebut allegations that I had any improper or nefarious contact with any agent of the Russia State based on facts, not misleading and salacious headlines. Claims of Russian influence or collusion in the Trump Campaign by the Intelligence Community are backed up by ZERO evidence. But now Rep. Adam Schiff, having slimed me in public session seems to be backing away from a confrontation. I demand the right to face my accusers. I will deconstruct their lies and spank them like children. Swallwell [sic], Speier all must be confronted with their lies and smear tactics. ... I’m ready to testify.” See Roger’s full email http://politi.co/2mXvBTn

WORTH A READ -- TRUMP INTERVIEW WITH TIME’s MICHAEL SCHERER -- On accusing President Obama of wire tapping, Trump said: “I’m a very instinctual person, but my instinct turns out to be right. I have articles saying that it happened.”

--On his unsubstantiated claim that 3 million undocumented immigrants voted illegally, Trump said he would be proved right eventually, though he hinted that he no longer stood by all parts of that claim, saying, “When I say that, mostly they register wrong. In other words, for the votes, they register incorrectly, and/ or illegally. I’m forming a committee on it.”

-- On the risk to his reputation caused by saying false things, Trump said: “Hey, look, I can’t be doing so badly, because I’m President and you’re not. You know. Say hello to everybody, OK?” http://ti.me/2mXHt7Z … Time’s cover, “Is Truth Dead?” http://ti.me/2mTvpUe

GORSUCH WATCH -- “Democrats weigh deal to let Gorsuch through,” by Burgess Everett: “A group of Senate Democrats is beginning to explore trying to extract concessions from Republicans in return for allowing Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch to be confirmed, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. The lawmakers worry that Gorsuch could be confirmed whether Democrats try to block him or not -- and Democrats will be left with nothing to show for it. That would be a bitter pill after the GOP blocked Merrick Garland for nearly a year.

“The deal Democrats would be most likely to pursue, the sources said, would be to allow confirmation of Gorsuch in exchange for a commitment from Republicans not to kill the filibuster for a subsequent vacancy during President Donald Trump’s term. The next high court opening could alter the balance of the court, and some Democrats privately argue that fight will be far more consequential than the current one.” http://politi.co/2mT7RPs

BUT, BUT, BUT -- “Democrats Seize on Disability Ruling to Bolster Their Case Against Gorsuch,” by WSJ’s Jess Bravin: http://on.wsj.com/2mTFosC

THE JUICE …

-- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: LIZ ALLEN, former White House deputy communications director and deputy assistant to President Obama, is joining Glover Park Group as a senior vice president in the firm’s strategic communications practice. Allen served in senior communications and leadership roles through all eight years of the Obama administration, including in the Office of the Vice President and the U.S. Department of State.

PHOTO DU JOUR: Former Vice President Joe Biden gets licked by a dog as he greets the crowd on Capitol Hill in Washington on March 22 following an event marking seven years since former President Barack Obama signed the Affordable Care Act into law. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo

THE ADMINISTRATION -- “Search for Secret Service Leader Intensifies as White House Security Is Tested,” by NYT’s Nick Fandos: “Aides to President Trump are narrowing a list of candidates to lead the Secret Service ... [T]op aides have been looking at candidates inside and outside the agency who can improve its morale and regain the credibility lost after a string of embarrassing lapses. They hope to name a new director in the coming weeks. ... Critics of the agency have seized on the most recent cases to amplify calls for the White House to recruit a leader from outside the Secret Service, which would be unprecedented in the famously hidebound agency’s modern history. They insisted that only someone untethered from the agency’s ways of thinking could institute the kind of reforms necessary to guide the organization.” http://nyti.ms/2o7UID3

TRUMP INC. -- “Trump’s early policy moves benefit the industries he knows best - his own,” by Darren Samuelsohn: “Donald Trump’s presidency has been good for business, with a soaring stock market, a freeze on new regulations and an Oval Office that appears to have an open door for CEOs. But Trump has been especially good news for the industries in which he has a personal interest: real estate, construction, entertainment, hospitality, gambling and, of course, golf. Since taking office in January, Trump has made moves -- from rolling back water quality permits to signaling big changes on overtime pay and internet betting -- that benefit the fields he knows best. And his former peers -- partners and competitors alike -- are finding familiar faces in Trump’s White House and Cabinet agencies, who have the power to make even more of their wish lists come true.” http://politi.co/2nFFicD

LONDON ATTACK LATEST -- “Major raids conducted after London attack; 7 arrested,” by AP’s Frank Griffiths and Gregory Katz in London: “British police conducted major raids and arrested seven people in connection with the attack outside Parliament that left four dead, including the man who mowed down pedestrians on a bridge and fatally stabbed an officer, a senior police official said Thursday. Metropolitan Police counterterrorism chief Mark Rowley said that he believed the attacker acted alone and was ‘inspired by international terrorism.’” http://apne.ws/2mTzubb

-- “Donald Trump Jr. Criticizes London Mayor After Deadly Attack,” by NYT’s Liam Stack: “It has become something of an online custom in the social media age to react to tragic news stories -- like Wednesday’s attack in London -- with well-meaning if sometimes rote messages like ‘thoughts and prayers.’ But that does not appear to be Donald Trump Jr.’s style. ‘You have to be kidding me?!’ Mr. Trump said Wednesday afternoon on Twitter ... Mr. Trump, the oldest son of President Trump, was calling attention to an article from September in The Independent, a British newspaper, that described Mr. Khan’s reaction to a bombing then in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York City. Mr. Trump mischaracterized the London mayor’s remarks. Mr. Khan did not describe terrorism as ‘part of living in a big city,’ as if bombings and shootings were an inescapable fact of life. He said that terrorism preparedness, including providing sufficient support to the police, was ‘part and parcel of living in a great global city.’” http://nyti.ms/2nqrSk3

COMING ATTRACTIONS -- “Trump meets Black Caucus and vows action on drug prices,” by Elana Schor and Matt Nussbaum: “President Donald Trump had a ‘candid’ discussion with members of the Congressional Black Caucus Wednesday, lawmakers said, while also repeating his politically-challenging campaign promise to tackle high prescription drug prices. … ‘I think we’re going to do it in health care, or we’re going to do it separately, but we’re going to bid down drug prices, and we’re going to try to have the lowest prices anywhere in the world from really the highest,’ Trump told the lawmakers, according to a pool report.” http://politi.co/2nUyMMv

HOT TAKE -- DANA MILBANK in WaPo, “Lincoln was a Republican, slavery is bad — and more discoveries by President Obvious”: “Seeking and winning the presidency has been a magical voyage of discovery for Donald Trump. Tuesday night, he divulged a most remarkable finding: Abraham Lincoln was -- are you sitting down for this? -- a Republican. ‘Most people don’t even know he was a Republican,’ Trump told a group of Republicans. ... He has repeatedly tried to educate the populace on this little-known fact. August 2016: ‘Most people don’t know this. The Republican Party is ... the party of Abraham Lincoln.’ September 2016: ‘A lot of people don’t realize that Abraham Lincoln, the great Abraham Lincoln, was a Republican.’ October 2016: ‘A lot of people don’t know that it’s the party of Abraham Lincoln.’” http://wapo.st/2naeZJ7

****** A message from PhRMA: For more than 10 years, Medicare has provided prescription drug coverage for seniors. Competition continues to keep premiums low, but seniors are facing higher out-of-pocket spending. Insurers negotiate significant discounts for medicines in Part D. Giving seniors 80% of those discounts at the pharmacy counter could save a senior with diabetes more than $350 per year on their health care costs. The change could also save Medicare nearly $1,000 per year for every senior taking diabetes medication. How? By helping patients afford the drugs they need to stay healthy and stay out of the hospital. Seniors share the cost. They should share the savings. https://letstalkaboutmedicare.org/ ******

WEST COAST WATCH -- “Many Californians unsure of Kamala Harris, poll says,” by California Playbook co-author David Siders in Sacramento: “California Sen. Kamala Harris remains unknown to many residents of her own state despite maintaining a high profile in Washington, while California’s senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, has seen her job approval rating tick down, according to a new poll. Forty-six percent of Californians approve of the job Harris is doing, while 23 percent disapprove, according to a poll released late Wednesday by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. But 30 percent of Californians – including 20 percent of Democrats – say they don’t know how to rate Harris’ performance, according to the poll, which is the PPIC’s first post-election measure of Harris’ job approval.” http://politi.co/2nfHxT5

BUSINESS BURST -- “U.S. Preparing Cases Linking North Korea to Theft at N.Y. Fed,” by WSJ’s Aruna Viswanatha and Nicole Hong: “Federal prosecutors are building cases that would accuse North Korea of directing one of the biggest bank robberies of modern times, the theft of $81 million from Bangladesh’s account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York last year ... The charges, if filed, would target alleged Chinese middlemen who prosecutors believe helped North Korea orchestrate the theft ... In the heist, cyberthieves used the SWIFT access codes of Bangladesh’s central bank in one February 2016 weekend to transfer $81 million from the bank’s account at the New York Fed to four bank accounts in the Philippines.” http://on.wsj.com/2mXgk50

DEEP DIVE -- “The New Detroit: The South’s manufacturing renaissance comes with a heavy price,” by Peter Waldman in Bloomberg Businessweek: “Alabama has been trying on the nickname ‘New Detroit.’ Its burgeoning auto parts industry employs 26,000 workers, who last year earned $1.3 billion in wages. ... Parts suppliers in the American South compete for low-margin orders against suppliers in Mexico and Asia. They promise delivery schedules they can’t possibly meet and face ruinous penalties if they fall short. Employees work ungodly hours, six or seven days a week, for months on end. Pay is low, turnover is high, training is scant, and safety is an afterthought, usually after someone is badly hurt. Many of the same woes that typify work conditions at contract manufacturers across Asia now bedevil parts plants in the South. ... The files read like Upton Sinclair, or even Dickens.” http://buswk.co/SouthernAutoJobs ... The cover http://politi.co/2nqv53s

MEDIAWATCH -- “Federal staffers panicked by conservative media attacks: A spate of stories in Breitbart and other outlets have singled out individual career employees, questioning their loyalty to Trump,” by Nahal Toosi and Andrew Restuccia: “The articles -- which have appeared in Breitbart News, the Conservative Review and other outlets -- have alarmed veteran officials in both parties as well as current executive branch staffers. They say the stories are adding to tensions between career staffers and political appointees as they begin to implement Trump’s agenda, and they worry that the stories could inspire Trump to try purging federal agencies of perceived enemies. The claims posted on the conservative sites include allegations of anti-Israel and pro-Iran bias against staffers at institutions such as the State Department and the National Security Council. Breitbart ... has even published lists of workers that the president should fire. Washington veterans say they can’t recall similar targeting of government employees, who are required to stay apolitical and generally shun the spotlight.” http://politi.co/2mvgwMy

-- ANNIE KARNI will moderate a talk Sunday with former top Obama aide Alyssa Mastromonaco at Politics & Prose about life in the White House and her new book, “Who Thought This Was a Good Idea?: And Other Questions You Should Have Answers to When You Work in the White House”. Audrey Gelman, co-founder of The Wing and a Clinton campaign alum, also is joining the conversation. http://bit.ly/2mvjSPN

-- The Washington Legal Clinic held its 30th annual home court basketball game fundraiser. Organized by students at Georgetown Law School, the event which typically pits lawmakers against a team of Georgetown Law faculty and staff had to rejigger its roster after all 10 members of Congress backed out with the health care debate going on. While Dean Treanor lead the Hoya’s Lawya’s to victory over the remains of the Hill’s Angels, the Washington Legal Clinic for the Homeless was the big winner as they announced a Home Court fundraising record of over $1,036,000 raised for the night’s event.

TRANSITIONS -- After three years and two tours with EMILY’s List, executive director JESSICA O’CONNELL is leaving the organization after its We Are EMILY National Conference and Gala in May. During her time at the group, EMILY’s List has grown from a community of 3 million to 5 million people. The group helped to quadruple the number of women of color in the U.S. Senate, elected 269 women at the state and local level and raised $90 million for pro-choice Democratic women during the 2016 cycle.

– Mercury has announced six new partners to the PR firm’s leadership: Tracy Arnold, Paul Bauer, John Gallagher, Glenn Gritzner, John Lonergan and Duncan McFetridge. http://politi.co/2mX92OM

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: HuffPost DC bureau chief Ryan Grim, the pride of Still Pond, Md., is 39 – how he’s celebrating: “I’ll be flying to Boston to moderate a panel at Harvard the next day on marijuana legalization, which is several outlandish dreams come true all at once” – read his Playbook Plus Q&A: http://politi.co/2o7EHwM

****** A message from PhRMA: For more than 10 years, Medicare has provided prescription drug coverage for seniors. Competition continues to keep premiums low, but seniors are facing higher out-of-pocket spending. Insurers negotiate significant discounts for medicines in Part D. Giving seniors 80% of those discounts at the pharmacy counter could save a senior with diabetes more than $350 per year on their health care costs. The change could also save Medicare nearly $1,000 per year for every senior taking diabetes medication. How? By helping patients afford the drugs they need to stay healthy and stay out of the hospital. Seniors share the cost. They should share the savings. https://letstalkaboutmedicare.org/ ******