...EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA......DAMAGING WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERNPANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA......STORM FLOODING STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE GULF COAST...

The Hurricane Warning for the Gulf coast of Florida has beendiscontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued westof Panama City and southeast of Keaton Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...* Panama City Florida to Keaton Beach Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threateninginundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. Fora depiction of areas at risk, please see the National WeatherService Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available athurricanes.gov.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from thecoastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States shouldmonitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possibleinland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by yourlocal National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK----------------------At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael waslocated by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 32.1 North,longitude 83.8 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near20 mph (31 km/h) and this general motion should continue tonight. Amotion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected onThursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core ofMichael will move across southwestern and central Georgia overnight,and move through east-central Georgia Thursday morning. Michael willthen move northeastward across the southeastern United Statesthrough late Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast byearly Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)with higher gusts. Michael will steadily weaken as it crosses thesoutheastern United States through Thursday night, becoming atropical storm by Thursday morning. Michael is forecast tore-strengthen some Thursday night and Friday when it moves off theeast coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical cycloneon Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from thecenter and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------STORM SURGE: Water levels are beginning to recede in somelocations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surgeand the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near thecoast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from theshoreline. The water has the potential to reach the followingheights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of hightide...

Panama City FL to Keaton Beach FL...3-5 ftSound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet toDuck...2-4 ft

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward withinthe warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonightthrough Friday.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions ofsoutheastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and theDelmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off theMid-Atlantic coast late Thursday night or Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfallamounts into Friday...

Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to 6 inches, withisolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead tolife-threatening flash floods.

Florida...an additional inch of rain is possible as the hurricanemoves away from the state eastern Mid-Atlantic, southern New Englandcoast...1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes remain possible tonight and Thursdaymorning from Georgia into the Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of theeastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through Thursdaymorning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surfand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your localweather office.

Data from NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radars indicate that Michaelhas been steadily weakening a a typical rate of decay since itmoved inland. However, peak Doppler velocity values are still 80-85kt between 5000-7000 ft above ground level in large areas in theeastern semicircle. With a recent burst of convection near thelow-level center, some of those hurricane-force winds are likelymaking it down to the surface. Additional weakening is expected dueto frictional effects, and the official intensity follows thetrend of the Decay-SHIPS model for the next 24 hours while thecyclone remains over land. Sustained winds have dropped belowtropical-storm-force across the northern Gulf coast, so theHurricane Warning has been discontinued for that area. Michael isforecast to emerge over the western Atlantic Thursday night andFriday, where intensification as a robust extratropical cyclone isexpected. The low is forecast to be absorbed by another lowpressure area over the eastern Atlantic by day 5.

The initial motion is now 045/17 kt. Michael will continue toaccelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded within deepermid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving frontalsystem. By 36 hours, the expected post-tropical cyclone should turneast-northeastward and accelerate further while it moves over thenorth Atlantic. The latest track guidance is tightly clusteredabout the previous forecast track, so no significant changes weremade.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of theMid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomespost-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, andadvisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards inthese areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge continues along portions of theFlorida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend. The worst storm surgeis expected to continue between Panama City and Keaton Beach,where 3 to 5 feet of inundation is still ongoing.

2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flashflooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeasternVirginia.

3. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeastU.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, andtropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.

Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate thatMichael continues to weaken as the center moves through easternGeorgia, and based on these data the initial intensity is decreasedto 45 kt. There is currently a small area of tropical-storm-forcewinds near the center, with a second area over the Atlantic well tothe southeast of the center. Michael should continue to weaken forthe next 12 h or so as the center moves through South Carolinaand into North Carolina. After that time, the cyclone should startto intensify due to baroclinic forcing, and it is expected to becomea gale- or storm-force extratropical low around the 24-h point. Thenew intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, andit leans heavily on global model guidance during the extratropicalphase.

The initial motion is now 045/18. Michael will accelerate towardthe northeast and east-northeast as it becomes further embedded inthe mid-latitude westerlies. The new track forecast track is nearthe various consensus models and has no significant changes from theprevious forecast.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of theMid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomespost-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, andadvisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards inthese areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flashflooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeasternVirginia.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of thesoutheast U.S. coast from Georgia through North Carolina, andtropical storm warnings remain in effect for these areas.

Surface, radar, and satellite data indicate that the center ofMichael has moved over central South Carolina this morning, and willbe moving into central North Carolina shortly. Sustained winds nearthe center have decreased, but there have been a couple of reportsof sustained 37 to 40 kt winds along and just off the coast of SouthCarolina within the outer circulation of the storm. It is assumedthat these coastal observing sites have not sampled the strongestwinds, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory.Wind gusts of 40 to 50 kt have been common over central and easternportions of South Carolina this morning. As Michael's circulationemerges over the western Atlantic, little change in strength isexpected today, with the highest sustained winds spreading northwardalong the coasts of South and North Carolina. Late tonight, Michaelwill quickly transform into an extratropical cyclone, and the globalmodels indicate that the post-tropical low will quickly strengthenafter moving offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. The post-tropicalportion of Michael's intensity forecast is based on guidance fromthe NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

The storm is moving quickly northeastward or 050 degrees at 20 kt.Michael will continue to accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward as it moves over the western and north Atlanticduring the next couple of days. There has been little change tothe guidance envelope, and the new NHC track is an update of theprevious advisory.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of theMid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomespost-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, andadvisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards inthese areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flashflooding today over portions of the Carolinas and southeasternVirginia.

2. Tropical storm force wind gusts will continue across much ofSouth Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina, withsustained tropical storm force winds expected along the coast of theCarolinas.

Satellite and radar data show that Michael's rain shield isbeginning to expand northward and northwestward, and that cooler anddrier air is starting to wrap around the western portion of thecirculation. These trends indicate that Michael's transition to anextratropical low has started. There have been recent observationsof 40 to nearly 45 kt sustained winds along the southeastern coastof North Carolina, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. Littlechange in strength is expected through this evening, but Michael isforecast to quickly intensify after it completes extratropicaltransition and exits the east coast of the United States tonight.The official intensity forecast is based on guidance from the NOAAOcean Prediction Center.

It should also be noted that an area of damaging wind gusts of up to50 kt has developed around the northwest side of the circulationover central North Carolina and Virginia this afternoon. As aresult, the gust factor has been increased in this advisory, as thisarea of strong winds will spread northward and eastward acrossportions of eastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina thisevening and tonight.

Michael is moving northeastward or 050/21 kt. The storm willcontinue to accelerate as it become further embedded within themid-latitude westerlies. The post-tropical cyclone will raceacross the north Atlantic during the next few days, before slowingdown late in the period before it weakens and dissipates. Thetrack guidance continues to be in good agreement and little changewas required from the previous NHC track forecast.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of theMid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomespost-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, andadvisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards inthese areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding is occurring over portions ofNorth Carolina and southern Virginia and will continue through theevening.

2. Damaging winds are spreading eastward across portions of centraland eastern North Carolina, and will continue through this evening.These winds have the potential to cause tree and structural damage.Strong winds are also expected over portions of southeasternVirginia and the Virginia Eastern Shore tonight as Michael becomespost-tropical.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible tonight along the sound side ofthe North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, where aStorm Surge Watch is in effect.

Michael has just about lost its tropical characteristics. Thelow-level circulation is becoming increasingly elongated as itbecomes embedded within a frontal zone, and the center is becomingill defined. The center we have been tracking across NorthCarolina appears to have moved into extreme southeastern Virginia,although it should be noted that a second low center, one with evenlower pressure, has formed farther north along the western shore ofChesapeake Bay, closer to the deepest convection. Needless to say,Michael has just about become post-tropical, and thattransformation should be complete overnight. The estimated maximumwinds remain 45 kt based on recent observations from coastal NorthCarolina. Due to baroclinic forcing, some re-intensification ofthe post-tropical low is expected during the next 24-36 hours,following guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. Thepost-tropical low should then begin to weaken again in 2-3 days andwill likely be absorbed by another weather system to the west ofEurope by day 4.

The initial motion based on the continuity-following low center isnortheastward, or 055/22 kt. Michael is embedded within themid-latitude flow and is therefore expected to accelerate towardthe east-northeast over the western and northern Atlantic during thenext couple of days, even approaching speeds of about 50 kt in 48hours. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and nosignificant changes to the official track forecast were required.Michael's center is expected to move off the coast of Virginiawithin the next couple of hours, with tropical-storm- andgale-force winds moving away from the coast during the day onFriday.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of theMid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomespost-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, andadvisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards inthese areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding is occurring over portions ofthe southern Mid-Atlantic states and will continue overnight.

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Michael hasbecome a storm-force extratropical low as it moves off of the coastof the United States. The initial intensity has been increased to55 kt based on the surface observations, and some additionalincrease in strength is expected during the next 12-24 h. Afterthat time, the cyclone should gradually weaken, and it is forecastto dissipate over the eastern Atlantic by 96 h. The revisedintensity and size forecast are based mainly on the guidance fromthe Ocean Prediction Center.

The initial motion is 065/25. The cyclone should move very rapidlytoward the east-northeast, followed by a more eastward motion nearthe end of the cyclone's life.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National HurricaneCenter on this system. Additional information on this system can befound in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and availableon the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.Additional information on the remaining impacts over the UnitedStates can be found in products issued by local National WeatherService forecast offices.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding this morning fromeastern New Jersey to southern New England. Elsewhere high water,flooding, and flash flooding may persist today where heavy rain fellvery recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.

2. Gale-force winds will continue for a few more hours overportions of southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, andthe Delmarva Peninsula.