Tuesday, May 21, 2013

The Badgers have put a quite a few players in the NFL over
the last number of years, and out of all of them, J.J. Watt is the one that
stands out. Watt has quickly become possibly the league's best defensive player
in short order topped off by winning the 2012 NFL defensive player of the year
award. Watt is a monster of a football player, standing 6'5”, and 295 pounds,
so it easy to see how he could become what he has become. However, before you
expect even bigger things from Watt in 2013, I may some bad news for you. History does not favor Watt at the moment.

If you look throughout recent NFL history, plenty of players
have had a big breakout season, 2-4 seasons or so into their NFL careers. This
gets everyone all excited about their limitless potential, possibly even
expecting bigger things from that player the following season, which even
places somewhat of unrealistic expectations on that player. History shows us
that very few players ever replicate success the following season after their
big “breakout” year, especially defensive players. In fact, we need to look no
further than our own Green Bay Packers as an example of this.

Injuries Slow Down The Pass Rusher Every Time

In 2010 Clay Matthews, Tramon Williams, and B.J. Raji all
had huge breakout seasons. Matthews was a force off the edge all season that
year, recording 13.5 sacks and being named to his second Pro Bowl. Tramon
Williams had raised the depth chart to become the Packers cover corner opposite
the now departed Charles Woodson. Williams started all 16 games, recorded six
interceptions, and was named to his first Pro Bowl. Raji had a breakout year,
not in terms of numbers, but in terms of performance, and was named to the Pro
Bowl as well. Oh yeah, these three, along with Woodson, anchored the Packers defense
on their way to their Super Bowl victory that season. As a result of these
performances, all three had very high expectations placed on them for the
following season, and none of them replicated their 2010 performances. Matthews
recorded just six sacks in 2011, Raji played too many snaps, and Williams began
to deal with injury problems.

What does this tell us about J.J. Watt? Well, it's very simple;
before you expect even bigger things, remember that history does not favor J.J.
Watt in terms of duplicating his 2012 success next season.