Elections in Catalonia: it takes two to tango

On Sunday
November 25, the Catalan elections illustrated the fact that, in politics,
nothing is ever sure. But also, and more importantly, that nothing is ever as
simple as politicians would like it to be.

The right
wing government of Mr Mariano Rajoy has been able to loudly rejoice at the
setback that has been visited upon conservative nationalist leader Artur Mas -
prime minister of this autonomous region's government. His CIU party had been
hoping for an absolute majority in order to implement by referendum the “right
to choose” between the present status quo and a “Proper State” within or
outside of Spain. Nevertheless, the dreaded separatists have, in all, increased
substantially their share of the votes, thus making a political solution
between Madrid and Barcelona look ever more precarious.

Contrary to
what CIU had expected, they lost twelve seats while remaining, by far, the leading
party. But also, in contradiction to the hopes and claims of the Spanish
establishment – Mr Rajoy's Popular Party (PP) and the opposition Socialists of
the PSOE alike – these elections have clearly reinforced the nationalist,
separatist or pro-independence majority. This time, by increasing massively the
score of two leftists parties, the Republican, anti-monarchic, ERC and the
Communist-Green coalition ICV-EUiA. ERC has more than doubled his seats. The
pro-independence MPs are now 87 – five more than in the 2010 elections - out of
135. In terms of votes, while the voting numbers increased by one million to
reach 65.5 percent, the share of the nationalist vote has surged three points to
57.6 percent.

So, in terms
of numbers, Mr Mas's defeat has been more than compensated for by the
spectacular surge of the nationalist left. And this defeat, branded by the
Spanish political establishment and media in Madrid as humiliating for the man
who had dared to challenge the central government might well turn to be a
hollow victory for them, as a weakened Mas might be tempted to outbid the nationalist
left - he now needs to govern by pushing his “right to decide” even further. And
this left might also be a far more difficult negotiating partner than the
bourgeois, moderate, long-used-to-compromise, CIU.

The
nationalist vote is now almost the double of the pro-Spain vote, even if the PP
has gained a seat and the Spanish ultra-nationalist Ciutadans tripled their
score, while the Catalan branch of PSOE (Socialist Party), or PSC, has suffered
its worst defeat ever, slipping to third place. The PSC, which was defeated by
CIU two years ago, has paid the price for having been in power when the
economic crisis started. And – just like the PP and CIU – it is also paying the
price for its bitter divisions and its lack of a clear strategy. They have been
walking a tight rope, wanting at one and the same time to be a Catalan party
while remaining obedient to the centralist PSOE. Divided between the pro and
anti-choice (for, or against a separate state or independence), the PSC
switched lately, in rather vague terms, towards an improved federalism, a
position grudgingly accepted by a PSOE leadership almost as bitterly opposed to
any kind of Catalan self-determination as the PP.

This might all
look rather complicated and outdated as Europe – and especially the eurozone –
is going in for more and more integration. And this has been the main argument
used by Madrid to oppose the separatist majority's ambitions, accompanied by
various threats of retaliation. Yet, Catalans are looking with envy towards Scotland,
which is due to vote on independence in 2014. Its media and politicians refer
to the Scottish example almost on a daily basis, sometimes with a nod as well to
the peaceful split of Czechoslovakia between the Czech and Slovak Republics in
1993 - in order to emphasize the
possibility that they too could go independent within Europe, where they would
sit among the medium countries with a spoken language and an economy of the
size of Denmark.

But, for a
majority of Catalans, things look simple. Recent polls have shown that 52 percent were
in favour of independence, roughly two-thirds of Catalan speakers – the
provincial education is bilingual Catalan-Spanish - and 30 percent of the more recent
immigrants from the rest of Spain and Latin America. By far the largest
regional economy of the peninsula, even if they are also the most indebted,
they resent being, or feeling betrayed, and milked by Madrid, paying more than
their fair share of taxes while receiving less than the other provinces, most
of them now ruled by PP. They had been hoping for an improved status, voting by
referendum in 2006, a decision that had already been ratified by the Spanish
Parliament before being emasculated in 2010 by the Constitutional Court to
which it had been referred by the PP.

When the PP
was returned to power last year, its relations with the CIU were good, as
between two conservative parties looking to solve the crisis by slashing the
welfare state. Barcelona was the first in Spain to introduce a much criticised
1€ tax on each medical treatment. Both parties cooperated on the regional level
until Madrid started to use the belt-tightening they claimed necessary to fight
the crisis, which involved them in recentralising some powers and rights
devolved to the regions after the dictator Franco’s death in 1975. Last
summer's meeting between Rajoy and Mas was a disaster, the national prime
minister refusing to even discuss his Catalan counterpart's plan to regionalise
tax collection. After the ‘Status fiasco’ of 2010, it was too much for many
Catalans, bringing to the streets of Barcelona over one million angry
demonstrators on 11 September.

One example
among many of this disillusionment from people who had long wanted to be at the
same time Catalans and Spaniards has been well conveyed in the November issue
of Barcelona's monthly L'Avenç by
Arnau González Vilalta, modern history professor at Barcelona Autonomous
University, who has also taught in the USA and China: “If someone bothered
publicising the anger felt by these immigrants who now are Catalans (like
himself) when they visit their original lands where they are insulted as
'Catalans', or when people pretend that they are 'returnable' to Extremadura,
he could explain to the Spanish public opinion what the Catalan reality is”. González also expressed his rejection of being “forced to be Spanish, and not
being persuaded to love Spain”. Surely the wrong strategy when the future of
Spain is hanging in the balance.

He was
answering, after a fashion, Madrid's Education minister who had urged the
“hispanicisation” of Catalan pupils; but perhaps also those “Castilian”
politicians – right or left – who have compared, not always in veiled terms,
Catalan nationalism and Mas himself to the national socialism of the 30's - the
very Nazi regime that had helped Franco to overthrow the Republic and smash
Catalan autonomy. Some PP members have gone further by asking for the Guardia
Civil (national armed police force) to intervene militarily in the event that
Catalans organised an – illegal according to the Spanish Constitution -
referendum on self determination.

In Spain, as
elsewhere, it takes two to tango and Spanish as well as Catalan leaders have
until now seemed more interested in playing on nationalist feelings than in
trying to find a middle ground. Polls have shown, for instance, than the number
of pro-independence Catalans would shrink to 40 percent if Barcelona were to get
fiscal autonomy. Compromise is always a two-way street and the idea that
Barcelona might be persuaded to kowtow all the way without getting anything in
return, all the while fanning the flames with fiery words, seems at best
unrealistic. By pushing too hard a peaceful people – Catalans are not Basques,
CIU is not ETA, and there has never been Catalan terrorism – these patriots might
very well have exacerbated a national feeling long suppressed by centuries of centralisation,
making of an uncharismatic quinquagenarian father of four who once worked in
investment and trade promotion, the unwilling leader of a crusade for
independence, a word he has always been reluctant to use.

The problem
is that both governments – Madrid's perhaps even more so as Mr Rajoy is now the
most unpopular politician in Spain – have used nationalism to reroute and distract
voters' anger away from the brutal impact of the massive social cuts designed to
fight the present crisis, which
have massively hit the lower and middle classes all over a country with a rate
of unemployment exceeding 25 percent. And this is certainly one of the main reasons for Mr Mas's setback, even before his nationalist tactics bedded in, tactics much more prudent than those of many Catalans, as he has admitted on Sunday night.

Finally, this
strong urge of many Catalans for independence, if it were to materialise, could
give a fatal blow to the Spain gradually built by the monarchy since the
Reconquista victory against the last Arab kingdom in 1492. Its economic, but
even more political impact could be devastating for the national establishment.
Spain could lose about a fourth of its economy, its second city with its major
harbour and its principal gateway to the rest of Europe and its markets, the
rail and motorway Mediterranean axis going through Catalonia and France. A
great asset for a new Catalonia but also an asset Madrid cannot afford to do
without.

About the author

Patrice de Beer is former London and Washington correspondent for Le Monde

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