The first week of the season is in our rearview mirror, Pearl Jam, and I’m seeing overreactions everywhere I turn around, Bonnie Tyler. Ask yourself this: If a fantasy player has a bad week in an otherwise good year, does it matter? The first week of the season is nearly as meaningless as Spring Training and the only takeaway I’m, um, taking away from it is whether a player is injured and that the Rays are going to win the World Series. Just because a player hit several home runs in the first week doesn’t mean he will keep hitting them. It also doesn’t mean that he won’t keep hitting them. The first week is too small a sample to discern any real meaning because there are too many variables at play, like which pitchers the hitter faced, the ballparks he’s been in, the impact of the wind, whether he’s been sick, and so on. There could even be something crazy that we do know about, like Brandon Moss having a kid (well, his wife anyway), or something we don’t know about. What I’m trying to say is that I won’t change my expectations for a specific player just yet. Although it’s never too early to take advantage of people in your leagues who are overreacting and pull the trigger on a potential buy low or sell high opportunity. Anyway, here are a few players who have had unexpected starts that I’m interested in:

Mike Trout – I somehow haven’t talked about him enough, but that’s partially because I’ve felt bombarded by talk of him by everybody else. His slow start doesn’t have me worried at all and I fully expect him to post similar numbers to last year. I kept hearing the “fact” that he would regress because he was “lucky” to an extent, but I don’t think that’s a given. Regression is never inevitable and any deviation from an expected baseline can’t simply be dismissed as luck. Additionally, most of the arguments I’ve heard about why he will regress could be turned around the other way. For example, if you are worried that pitchers are going to better adjust to him, then you could also be excited because he could better adjust to pitchers. I’ll end this mini-rant by saying that you should give your studs the benefit of the doubt for the first month (or two).

Carlos Quentin – Why is he available in so many leagues? Please pick him up for me. It’s not like he’s injured… yet. The Padres are benching him a little initially, but he appears to be healthy, so his playing time should become more frequent in the near future. In February, I said, “A .250/.350/.490 line should be attainable when healthy.” I still think that’s his baseline, which might represent the best OPS guy you can find on waivers in most leagues.

Shin-Soo Choo – I’ve been high on Choo (which is legal in my state) since his move to the Reds and his hot start is encouraging. Especially because he appears to be taking full advantage of his home ballpark, with an elevated fly ball rate. I expect to see a career high in home runs and runs. He feels like one of the safest players to me, even if Dusty decides to bat him ninth at some point.

Norichika Aoki – He’s a player who I believed would repeat his performance from last season but, the more I think about it, the more I think he’s going to show slight improvement. Maybe the nicest thing so far is his increased walk rate, which could lead to an uptick in steals, if he can sustain a higher OBP.

Brandon Moss – Don’t drop him yet! He may get benched against some tough lefties throughout the season, but that should only help his production. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post a .250/.340/.500 line.

Jed Lowrie – I’ve always thought he had the upside for an .800 OPS, but his current .500/.567/1.000 line is video game worthy. I’m thinking that he could post a higher than expected slugging on the year with some of that magic Billy Beane spread across his team last year. I expect him to continue to contribute when healthy, but sadly don’t expect a full season.

Giancarlo Stanton – Yes, he’s got a bad team around him, but I don’t think they’re causing his power drought unless they regularly heckle him from the dugout. But who would dare do that to him, considering that Ted Lilly isn’t on the Marlins? I really wouldn’t be concerned with him unless he hasn’t hit a handful of home runs by midseason. The power is yours, Giancarlo.

@Ryan: I’m not concerned about Dickey and I would absolutely make that deal. He might be the only elite pitcher who has struggled early that is actually attainable as a buy low opportunity because of the whole knuckleball thing.

Both Mike Minor and Scherzer are on waivers right now. I’m 5th on the waiver order in a 10 team, mixed league, weekly set league. Minor has 2 starts next week ,but Max is the overall better player I think….

@Tom Jacks: 12 team mixed, but with six man benches and 3 DL spots. Parra, Bradley Jr and David Murphy are on the wire for OF, but Mayberry, Helton and the Atlanta platoon are the best corner guys available.

My big issue is that I literally have six closers, and no bench bats. I feel like I just can’t drop the closers, but hardly anybody will trade for them.

@Rags: If you meant in terms of replacing dickey, there are some ok starters on the wire for ratios, but nobody with a half decent k/9. but for my pitching i have samardzija, greinke, niese, miley, hudson and harrison.

I’m a little concernd with Encarnacion’s start. Not sure how sustainable last year was, but I drafted him for30+ hr & about a .270 avg. Power hitters are notriously streaky, and there’s the whole adapting to the DH thing, but is there enough of a track record that this doesn’t scream bust?

@steviek: I wasn’t that high on him this year, but his power won’t disappear – I just wasn’t expecting a repeat of last year. Your expectation of 30+ hr and .270 avg is reasonable. Give him a few more weeks.

This is a keeper league where you get to keep two and lose the corresponding draft pick but my team is pretty loaded. Rosario (13), Goldschmidt (5), Zobrist (4), Asdrubal (7), Wright (2), Trout (1), JUp (3), Choo (8), Hosmer (11), Alex Gordon (9), Taveras (21), Simmons (23). I can’t see myself keeping Teheran (19) over any of the above even though you lose the round associated with the pick. So with all that said, would you feel comfortable about doing the deal? I’m just worried Teheran is going to turn into a mini Pedro.

@Charles: Yeah, Teheran is easily behind many of those guys in my mind, even considering the round picked. I think Teheran could be a solid mid-rotation pitcher down the road, but don’t see him as an ace. I’d feel comfortable with doing the deal.

Ok, thanks. Interesting choice of words. Do you see Dickey as an ace? I don’t think he comes close to replicating last year. However, I don’t see him as being this bad. So, I guess I see him as 2 at best and maybe a 3. So, since that’s essentially a mid rotation starter, would I be gaining much by getting Dickey? Or do you view Teheran as a mid rotation guy eventually and just a back end now?

Nice article Tom. I have Aoki this year and am excited to have his consistency in my lineup every day. With the likes of Giancarlo and Kinsler, Aoki will be a nice BA neutralizer. The dude never strikes out!

So I’m trying to capitalize on Trout’s slow start in my keeper league, but I’m also thinking I can compete this year for the top spot. Who do you like rest of season: Andrew McCutchen or Mike Trout. What about for the next 3-4 years (for keeper league purposes)?

So say you had McCutchen and were trying to get Trout. How much above and beyond McCutchen would you trade to get Trout in a keeper league? McCutchen and a closer? McCutchen and a young stud pitcher (Jose Fernandez or Matt Harvey)?

Just trying to get idea of how much is too much. Like I said, I like my team, but would be willing to give up a little extra for someone like Trout, especially in a keeper league. But obviously, I can live with McCutchen.

@Tom Jacks: 12-team league. SP is deep and streaming is definitely doable, so SP’s are a little less desirable unless you throw someone like Kershaw out there. Closers are difficult to come by in the league. People hoard them and their backups and the backup’s backup. Deep benches allow this. I will see what I can do. Thanks for your thoughts.

Heya.. Nice list, this is helpful. I was surprised to see Quentin is indeed available in my league.. Grey has him pretty low and ESPN only projects 379 ab.. Expecting injury? He’s only 30 and seems a reasonable bounceback candidate.

Do you like him more than marte? He’s certainly more proven. I realize they bring different things but my team is fairly balanced (not fair and balanced) so, in PvP which would you take, all other things equal. Talking 12 team head to head with tb and obp counted

@Tom Jacks: thanks for the reply.. Another thought I’m considering is dropping Neil walker who has been hideous and I literally drafted on accident while looking at his stats. I’ve got gyorko who’s been serviceable and rutledge who is rapidly gaining 2b eligibility.. So I’m thinking keep maarte, drop walker, and grab Quentin. Thoughts?

One more.. I know the mantra is give your studs time, but how about borderline, relatively unproven studs like cespedes? I’m gonna let him go against Wilson tonight hoping a few days off will get him going, but if he 0fers again id consider benching him tomorrow. Thanks!

@c0wfunk: I wouldn’t consider benching him unless it was against somebody like Felix. I still think he should be great. Yes, he’s more of a question mark, but I believe in him based upon what he’s done so far.

I have a lot of flexibility with Zobrist and Craig both qualifying in the OF, and once Gyoko qualifies at 3B he’ll be more valuable also, so I can cover almost anything with those three, but they are all so taltented it’s hard to leave anyone out. Left out rutledge today for Gyorko and it’s already paying off.

@gbaked: I would rather have Joyce than Cowgill. I don’t know how often people claim players off waivers in your league and I don’t know if O. Taveras is already on a team. Therefore, I cannot truly advise you as to whether or not it is a good idea to use the top waiver spot to get Joyce.

If Taveras is already stashed and there is a ton of movement in your league, then make the claim.

Are prospects for Ike Davis dwindling ? he just hit the waiver wire in my 10-team, H2H league. I am not really lacking in power and do not really love the high-K-no-BB exposure, but could definitely spare some batting avg risk and have high waiver priority…i am skeptical of low avg guys with high K rates that only hit right handed pitching (some times)….

After I read your article, I thought I would throw out a relatively crazy trade offer to see if I could get a Trout owner thinking, MadBum for Trout.

He came back with Trout/Pineda/Volquez for Bumgarner/Heyward,
I’m thinking I should at least try to get an upgrade somewhere else, maybe come back with
Trout/Rollins/Volquez for Bumgarner/Heyward/Segura…but am I crazy if I think the deal he offered me isn’t bad?

@ADK: I agree that the deal he countered with isn’t bad, but I’d try for the Rollins deal you’re thinking first. I think any time you can land a healthy first round player without giving up your first rounder is a solid move.

I was offered Goldschmidt, Ethier and Gattis for Stanton and Belt. I almost pulled the trigger but let the fine readers and the Great Grey convince me not to. Thanks for nothing.

Just kidding I still love you all.

Speaking of Stanton just remember this…he hit 37 bombs last year. He also missed about 120 at bats aaaaaaaand *drum roll* he did not hit his first homer until April 29th. So technically he’s still on pace for about 40 homers!