Chris Wesseling

Post-Season Fantasy Football Guide

Updated Fantasy Playoff Ranks

Once bitten twice shy may have been a truism for the ‘80s hair bandGreat White, but it’s no way to run a fantasy football team. We recommended stocking up on Saints against Seattle’shistorically long 250-1 oddslast January, and we won’t hesitate to roll with New Orleans again this year.

Drew Brees set records for passing yards (5,347), completions (468) and percentage (71.6), and his offense passed the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams’ record for most yards (7,474) and first downs (416). The streaking Saints have reeled off eight consecutive wins, including anaverageof 517.5 yards per over the past six weeks. Their last three opponents have fallen by 22, 29, and 28 points. More dynamic than Brees’ Super Bowl XLIV offense thanks to a diverse three-headed backfield that has cleared 100 yards 12 times, the Who Dats are undefeated in the Superdome while Detroit is 0-5 this season against NFC playoff teams.

If Brees stays this hot, Alex Smith has no chance of outdueling him in San Francisco the following week. Propped up by a soft schedule, the 49ers’ most impressive win was over a gimpy Ben Roethlisberger in the dual power-outage game. While the Niners boast the league’s best defense, turnover ratio, and special teams in addition to an effective ball-control offense, it’s hard to imagine the red zone-challenged Smith successfully trading punches with Brees.

Lost in the MVP debate is the idea thatBrees might actually be the favoritehad Mark Ingram plunged in from a yard out in the last seconds of the NFL opener back in September. Should Brees get an opportunity to avenge that loss in Lambeau, he’s facing an uphill battle against history. The Saints, 5-3 outside of the Big Easy this season, are winless in four road playoff games. Dome teams don’t win outdoor conference championship games, and the Packers haven’t lost in Green Bay since mid-October of 2010.

Elsewhere in the NFC, the schizophrenic Giants followed another inexplicable home loss to a mediocre team (Redskins) with dominant wins over the Jets and Cowboys. The Falcons, winless in the playoffs under Mike Smith and Matt Ryan, were the big winner in Week 17. An outdoor game in New York is certainly preferable to a third blowout loss in New Orleans. Buoyed by explosive rookie Julio Jones as well as Ryan’s mastery of the no-huddle attack, the Falcons are surging on offense heading into the postseason.

PFT’s Mike Florio suggests the Texans-Bengals game could bethe key to the AFC playoffs. The winner will determine whether the Patriots or Ravens will have to take on the Steelers next week. The Bengals backed into the playoffs thanks to one of the easiest non-division schedules in recent history, beating just one team that finished with a winning record (the 9-7 Titans) and finishing in the lower half of Football Outsiders’ team metrics while closing out the second half 3-5. In nine games against non-playoff teams, the Bengals were 9-0. All seven losses came against playoff teams. The Texans, on the other hand, haven't scored more than 22 points in a game since Matt Schaub’s season-ending injury in Week 10.

The only team to win a playoff game in each of the last three postseasons, the Ravens have a good shot at a rematch with a Texans team that fell 29-14 under Schaub in Baltimore back in Week 6. John Harbaugh’s squad has won 18 of their last 19 home games, including all eight this season.

While the Jets, Cowboys, Eagles, Raiders, and Chargers missed the postseason in large part due to losses against New England, it’s a bit of a red flag that the Patriots haven’t beat a team with a winning record all season. Tom Brady has been able to dig out of 17-0 and 21-0 home deficits to Miami and Buffalo the past two weeks, but that won’t work against the Ravens or Steelers. Despite the regular-season dominance at Foxboro, the home fans have watched the Pats’ season end in each of the past two seasons.

The Broncos’ point differential of -81 is thesecond-worst of any playoff teamsince the schedule expanded to 16 games nearly 35 years ago. Just the sixth team since 1990 to make the playoffs after losing four of its first five games, Denver also closed out the season with three straight clunkers. The Steelers once again boast the NFL’s No. 1 statistical defense as well as the AFC’s most well-rounded team when the quarterback is at full health. Dick LeBeau’s defense should make quick work of a struggling Tim Tebow.

On to the rankings. For a quick primer on playoff fantasy football, check out Evan Silva's how-to columnfrom a few years ago. The rules are similar to regular fantasy football, except that total points are the key. Pick a starting team, possibly a bench, and let them go at it. Myfantasyleague.com is hosting free playoff leagues.

Once bitten twice shy may have been a truism for the ‘80s hair bandGreat White, but it’s no way to run a fantasy football team. We recommended stocking up on Saints against Seattle’shistorically long 250-1 oddslast January, and we won’t hesitate to roll with New Orleans again this year.

Drew Brees set records for passing yards (5,347), completions (468) and percentage (71.6), and his offense passed the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams’ record for most yards (7,474) and first downs (416). The streaking Saints have reeled off eight consecutive wins, including anaverageof 517.5 yards per over the past six weeks. Their last three opponents have fallen by 22, 29, and 28 points. More dynamic than Brees’ Super Bowl XLIV offense thanks to a diverse three-headed backfield that has cleared 100 yards 12 times, the Who Dats are undefeated in the Superdome while Detroit is 0-5 this season against NFC playoff teams.

If Brees stays this hot, Alex Smith has no chance of outdueling him in San Francisco the following week. Propped up by a soft schedule, the 49ers’ most impressive win was over a gimpy Ben Roethlisberger in the dual power-outage game. While the Niners boast the league’s best defense, turnover ratio, and special teams in addition to an effective ball-control offense, it’s hard to imagine the red zone-challenged Smith successfully trading punches with Brees.

Lost in the MVP debate is the idea thatBrees might actually be the favoritehad Mark Ingram plunged in from a yard out in the last seconds of the NFL opener back in September. Should Brees get an opportunity to avenge that loss in Lambeau, he’s facing an uphill battle against history. The Saints, 5-3 outside of the Big Easy this season, are winless in four road playoff games. Dome teams don’t win outdoor conference championship games, and the Packers haven’t lost in Green Bay since mid-October of 2010.

Elsewhere in the NFC, the schizophrenic Giants followed another inexplicable home loss to a mediocre team (Redskins) with dominant wins over the Jets and Cowboys. The Falcons, winless in the playoffs under Mike Smith and Matt Ryan, were the big winner in Week 17. An outdoor game in New York is certainly preferable to a third blowout loss in New Orleans. Buoyed by explosive rookie Julio Jones as well as Ryan’s mastery of the no-huddle attack, the Falcons are surging on offense heading into the postseason.

PFT’s Mike Florio suggests the Texans-Bengals game could bethe key to the AFC playoffs. The winner will determine whether the Patriots or Ravens will have to take on the Steelers next week. The Bengals backed into the playoffs thanks to one of the easiest non-division schedules in recent history, beating just one team that finished with a winning record (the 9-7 Titans) and finishing in the lower half of Football Outsiders’ team metrics while closing out the second half 3-5. In nine games against non-playoff teams, the Bengals were 9-0. All seven losses came against playoff teams. The Texans, on the other hand, haven't scored more than 22 points in a game since Matt Schaub’s season-ending injury in Week 10.

The only team to win a playoff game in each of the last three postseasons, the Ravens have a good shot at a rematch with a Texans team that fell 29-14 under Schaub in Baltimore back in Week 6. John Harbaugh’s squad has won 18 of their last 19 home games, including all eight this season.

While the Jets, Cowboys, Eagles, Raiders, and Chargers missed the postseason in large part due to losses against New England, it’s a bit of a red flag that the Patriots haven’t beat a team with a winning record all season. Tom Brady has been able to dig out of 17-0 and 21-0 home deficits to Miami and Buffalo the past two weeks, but that won’t work against the Ravens or Steelers. Despite the regular-season dominance at Foxboro, the home fans have watched the Pats’ season end in each of the past two seasons.

The Broncos’ point differential of -81 is thesecond-worst of any playoff teamsince the schedule expanded to 16 games nearly 35 years ago. Just the sixth team since 1990 to make the playoffs after losing four of its first five games, Denver also closed out the season with three straight clunkers. The Steelers once again boast the NFL’s No. 1 statistical defense as well as the AFC’s most well-rounded team when the quarterback is at full health. Dick LeBeau’s defense should make quick work of a struggling Tim Tebow.

On to the rankings. For a quick primer on playoff fantasy football, check out Evan Silva's how-to columnfrom a few years ago. The rules are similar to regular fantasy football, except that total points are the key. Pick a starting team, possibly a bench, and let them go at it. Myfantasyleague.com is hosting free playoff leagues.

Rodgers became the first quarterback in league history to have two seasons with 500-plus pass attempts and seven or fewer interceptions. “That is beyond super,” says Hall of Famer Steve Young. “As a quarterback, you tip your cap out of pure respect and you shake your head. Because you just can't fathom what Aaron's done this season.” … Brees is 7-0 with a 25:3 TD-to-INT ratio over his past seven games. "Dan Marino and all these great quarterbacks talk about being in the zone,'' saidSIRIUS XM analyst and former Bears QB Jim Miller. "Drew Brees has been in a zone for about three years now.” NFL Network’s Michael Lombardi agrees, suggesting Brees is “in a zone that few players have ever achieved.”

Nearly as hot as Brees with eight straight wins of his own, Brady also surpassed Marino's 1984 single-season record with 5,235 yards and 39 touchdowns. The three-time Super Bowl winner carries a 14-5 postseason record into 2012. … With an inviting matchup at Denver, Big Ben should be a lock for two games. … Ryan has posted a passer rating over 110 in five of the past seven games, and this offense is playing significant better than last year’s 13-3 squad heading into the postseason. … Eli authored an NFL-record 15 fourth-quarter touchdown passes and six fourth-quarter or overtime comeback victories. He’ll need to channel that magic against a better team.

Smith enjoyed a career-year under Jim Harbaugh’s tutelage, vying with Stafford and Steve Smith for comeback player of the year honors. While coaching staff publicly bristles at the notion of Smith as a game manager, their schemes and play-calling tell us that’s exactly what they believe he is. … Rookie QBs are6-9 in playoff games since the merger, and no first-year passer has ever led his team to a Super Bowl. The only rookie QB to start 16 games, Dalton “hit a bit of a rookie wall” down the stretch, failing to top 200 yards in four of the final five games. … Yates expects to start Saturday after “dinging” his shoulder in the regular-season finale. Though Yates out-dueled Dalton a month ago and welcomes Andre Johnson back for the playoffs, he’s averaged just 158 yards per game while losing three straight.

Tebow magic has worn offafter the Patriots provided the blueprint for taking away scrambles and forcing him to win from the pocket. The Broncos have totaled just 40 yards in the past three games while Tebow has managed just a 43.1 passer rating and 41.1 completion rate.

Friday Update: The more I study the Texans-Bengals game, the stronger I feel about Houston emerging victorious. I've flip-flopped Yates and Dalton to reflect that analysis.

Of the top six teams, Rice is the top back in the playoffs after finishing as fantasy’s No. 1 back in total points. … The Saints exploded for 40 or more points in five of eight games at the Superdome -- outscoring their last four by a margin of 170—74. Easily the NFL’s top pass-catching back, Sproles is going to go wild on the Lions Saturday night.

The Texans will have to win with a 49ers-style attack, riding Foster, Andre Johnson, a strong defense and special teams to victory. … Thomas is not only the Saints’ designated screen-play back, but also the primary goal-line option since Mark Ingram went down with a season-ending injury. … Redman takes over as the feature back with Rashard Mendenhall out for the playoffs.

Gore is in danger of lasting just one round, but the matchup is right against a defense giving up 5.0 yards per rush. … Ridley has taken over as the Patriots top back the past two weeks, though Green-Ellis remains the goal-line horse. … While Grant saved his most effective play for December, Starks is fully expected to be ready in two weeks. The two figure to cancel each other out in a pass-oriented offense.

Turner and Bradshaw are 50-50 options to advance. Pay no attention to Turner’s eye-popping numbers against the Bucs’ dead-men-walking defense. He’s running on fumes. … The Saints haven’t lost much if anything with Ivory as Ingram’s replacement, but the goal-line work has gone primarily to Thomas. … I’d rather bank on Smith than Benson for a big game this weekend. … Jacobs is 1B to Bradshaw’s 1A.

Friday Update: James Starks' status remains in question after sitting out the entire bye week. Ryan Grant gets a bump as more of a sure thing. After going back and watching late-season Saints games, the hard-charging Chris Ivory is also getting a small bump. For the Patriots, Stevan Ridley continues to gain separation from BenJarvus Green-Ellis in my eyes.

McGahee has a brutal matchup. … Tate finished with 161 more yards than Bucs starter LeGarrette Blount despite nine fewer attempts, though consistency has been elusive. … Williams, Hunter, and Scott are change-of-pace options. … The Packers don’t run much near the goal-line; Kuhn has been the option of choice more often than not when they do pound it in. … Woodhead, Ware, Moore, and Ball are purely passing-down backs. … Clay could be the No. 2 in Pittsburgh with Moore’s knee in question.

Expected to be back to 100 percent in two weeks, Jennings will return to his perch as Aaron Rodgers’ go-to receiver. … Per @fboutsiders, Nelson’s 2011 season marks the highest DVOA score by a wide receiver in the last 20 years. … In a virtual tie with Jennings, Colston finished seventh in fantasy points per game. … The Patriots racked up a franchise-record 6,848 yards this season while tying an NFL record by posting 30 points in 12 games this season. Welker has big-game potential whenever he takes the field.

While Brown proved to be a better bet for targets and yards in the second half of the season, Wallace remains the primary touchdown threat for the Steelers. … Per @fboutsiders, Calvin Johnson finished with the second-best DYAR among wide receivers from 1992-2011. … White bounced back with a dominant final seven games, but it was playmaker Jones who finished as fantasy’s No. 1 receiver for the final four weeks. … Cruz’s five touchdowns of 65+ yards were the most in a single season since Crazy Legs Hirsch's six for the L.A. Rams in 1951. … Nicks is a more dominant talent facing tougher coverage.

Andre Johnson carries plenty of value if you believe the Texans will squeak past the Bengals. … Crabtree is playing the best ball of his career. … Boldin (knee) is expected to be healthy in two weeks, though he’s far from a sure bet to outproduce rookie deep threat Smith. … Green was held to a relatively quiet five catches and 59 yards in his first matchup with Texans shutdown corner Johnathan Joseph.

Meachem gets a healthy bump if Moore misses practice time this week. … Moore may disappear at times, but he has eight or more touchdowns in three of the past four seasons. The big game can come at any time -- just be sure to check practice reports on his hamstring. … Jones, Branch, Driver, Burleson, Manningham, and Young are hit-or-miss options. … The talent of Thomas and Decker figures to go to waste against the Steelers’ shut-down defense. … Cotchery, Sanders, and Ward may cancel each other out while vying for snaps as the third receiver. … Ochocinco has been an afterthought on offense. … Ginn and Williams are expected to be healthy for next week’s game.

Friday Update: Lance Moore (hamstring) is unlikely to play against the Lions after missing mid-week practices. I've dropped Moore from 13th to 21st and given healthy bumps to Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson. Also moved Kevin Walter up a few spots.

Although Gronk turned in the best tight-end season in history, Graham wasn’t far behind. I like the latter’s chances of playing more games. … His season may have frustrated fantasy owners, but Finley still finished as a top-five tight end. … Despite missing 2 games, Aaron Hernandez was only outscored by Gronk and Jimmy Graham among fantasy TEs. Still one of the youngest players in the league, Hernandez’s 79/910/7 line was overshadowed by Gronkowski’s historic run.

Davis closed out the season with a flourish, averaging 81 yards over the final three games. … Miller may be asked to concentrate on blocking against Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. … Gonzalez’s 1,149 catches are second in NFL history, but he’s winless in four playoff games. … Pettigrew tied with Jared Cook for the most tight-end receptions over the final three games. … Daniels has been losing red-zone looks to backup Dreessen.

Pitta and Dickson have canceled each other out, though the former has more catches and yards over the past three weeks. … Gresham has a tough matchup in a possible one-and-out scenario. … Ballard’s knee is question mark for the playoff opener. … Dreessen and Scheffler are worth a look in touchdown-heavy leagues. … Fells and Pascoe are purely desperation plays.

The 49ers’ special teams dominance cannot be overstated. Akers set an NFL record for points (166), field goals (44), and attempts (52) while Andy Lee led the league in punting average (50.9 yards) and net yards (44.0). Not to be overlooked in the field-position battle, burner Ted Ginn is fourth in kickoff returns (27.6) and punt returns (12.3). … Bryant and Tynes are a toss-up. … Hanson could end up outscoring Rackers and/or Nugent in just one game.

Friday Update: Bumped Rackers.

Defense/Special Teams

1.Packers2.Saints

See above. Green Bay and New Orleans have the best shot at playing three games.

3.Steelers4.Ravens5.Patriots6.49ers

The Steelers have the benefit of playing a slumping one-dimensional offense in the opener. … The Ravens could answer with a big game should T.J. Yates prevail over Cincinnati. … Although the Niners fielded one of the NFL’s elite defenses over the Patriots’ generous secondary, the two were dead even in fantasy points in many formats.

7. Texans8.Giants9.Falcons10.Bengals11.Broncos12.Lions

The Giants get the edge over the Falcons due to Jason Pierre-Paul’s emergence as perhaps the most lethal pass rusher in the game. … Houston will get Wade Phillips back for the Bulls on Parade defense. … The Lions can’t be trusted against the league’s most high-powered offense.

Chris Wesseling is a senior football editor and Dynasty league analyst for Rotoworld.com. The 2011 NFL season marks his fifth year with Rotoworld and his third year contributing to NBCSports.com. He can be found on Twitter @ChrisWesseling.Email :Chris Wesseling