Last week, The Athletic writers Seth Keysor (Chiefs) and Deuce Windham (Saints) examined what the tape had to say about the Drew Brees/Patrick Mahomes MVP race. In this piece, I’ll take a numbers-based approach as a complement, examining the broader field of MVP candidates before casting my Top 5 ballot. This isn’t to say that numbers are the only thing that matter (they aren’t!), but understanding which players have been most efficient on a per-play basis provides a useful way to frame the MVP conversation.

The ground rules

Right off the bat, let’s eliminate anyone who doesn’t play quarterback. It’s 2018, the NFL is a passing league, and the word “valuable” is clearly stated in the name of the award. Don’t even think about it.

“But what about Todd Gurley or Aaron Donald?”

On run plays involving Todd Gurley, the Rams added 32 Expected Points through Week 15. On plays that Aaron...