Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Made In Jersey (F)*

canceled

0.36

Blue Bloods (F)

0.51

CSI:NY (F)

0.52

Vegas

0.57

The Good Wife

0.60

The Mentalist

0.70

Partners*

canceled

0.79

Elementary

0.81

CSI

0.84

Hawaii Five-0

0.90

Criminal Minds

1.01

NCIS: Los Angeles

1.03

Rules of Engagement

1.07

Person Of Interest

1.12

Mike & Molly

1.15

NCIS

renewed

1.28

2 Broke Girls

1.32

How I Met Your Mother

renewed

1.33

Two And A Half Men**

1.44

The Big Bang Theory

renewed

2.08

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The return of Rules Of Engagement last week has it starting out as a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation. There's no space for the show on next Fall's schedule unless CBS either (a) expands their comedy time (possible), or (b) premieres no new sitcoms (not realistically possible). Of course, it could be renewed for another short schedule filling season like it was this year. That's possible, but I don't think it's likely.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old" Fall predictions in the table.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

TVDude,
M&M at 8:30 makes sense to me, too, it will be a good lead-in for 2BG for sure, and the latter will be probably stronger than HIMYM, so premiering a new show at 9:30 seems like a better option. however, it would have to go against the strongest hour of The Voice.

omabin

@TVDude,

That sounds possible, I agree.

Don

Let me look this over

Monday: HIMYM, new, 2BG, new, H50

HIMYM will still anchor, 2BG will still be at 8/9, and H50 will end at 9/10. Agree with the New Sitcom at 7:30/8:30 but Mike & Molly still does with with the 18-49 demos so its not going to Fridays

Tuesday: NCIS, NCIS on the road, CSI

Both NCIS’s remain in place. Unless this Third NCIS I have been hearing about does get a green light. I think Criminal Minds might to moved to Tuesday but CSI is not out of the question either.

Wednesday: Survivor, Criminal Minds, Elementary

I think Minds will be moved and Elementary will take its place

Thursday: TBBT, 2.5 Men, Person of Interest, New Drama

If they move Elementary this would be correct. The first two hours are safe and BBT is doing much better.

Fridays: M&M, new comedy, New drama, Blue Bloods

If they do a sitcom hour on Friday…Don’t expect M&M, maybe Rules will go their if they do renew the show. CBS has been so desperate to dump Rules.

Sunday: Amazing Race, Los Angeles, The Mentalist

I think the Mentalist will go and Good Wife stays. If NCIS III goes off then NCIS: LA goes to Sundays.

Ram510

Now that Rules of Engagement is in syndication on a few networks would it be worth it to renew RoE to pile on episodes and (I’m guessing) earn more money. It’s not like its a ratings suck and it shouldn’t end just yet

robby

the new ncis will be called ncis:red

Craig

Jesus. Rules of Engagement? End it already…

Tommy M.

@ Ram510

CBS doesn’t get anything out of it’s syndication. The only way CBS stands to gain anything from RoE syndication is if Sony gives it to them extremely cheap so that they (Sony) can pile up more episodes for syndication. That’s not nearly as big of a deal for CBS as it would be if they (CBS) produced it.

Mike and Molly has Melissa MCcarthy who had the #1 movie last weekend and this is from Chuck Lorre’s team so it won’t likely get “Rules” role next season as schedule spackle. I could see it moving to 8:30 though but I think CBS will play it safe and keep 2BG-M&M combo intact and will once again try launch a new sitcom at 8:30.

Tuesday
NCIS
NCIS: Red (New Drama)
NCIS: LA
-3 nights seems a little too much, but for now it will do for now

Wednesday
Survivor
Criminal Minds
CSI

Thursday
The Big Bang Theory
Two and a Half Men
Person of Interest
New Drama

Friday
The Good Wife
Elementary
Blue Bloods
-Either TGW or E can start or follow, but E is a cop show and would follow good w/BB

Sunday
60 Minutes
The Amazing Race
New Drama
The Mentalist
-It might be hard launching a new show here and with TM not high in the ratings, but it’s worth a shot

scarps

M&M should move since HIMYM will be ending next season and should not launch a new comedy after it. CBS should let TBG take the reins launching a new comedy.

Lukes

A question absolutely without polemics: if Partners was canceled with a value of 0.79, how can Elementary be considered as certain renewal if it has .81? social media buzz?

The End

@Dave

I like your Sunday picks. Out of all the current CBS shows on the air, Elementary would be best to place with The Amazing Race.

@Nick

That’s actually a pretty solid schedule there, though as said to Dave keeping with your current ideas for Sunday, I can’t see Amazing Race being moved off the 8pm slot, but flipping the shows so it stays at 8pm and Survivor on 9, with your suggestion for 10, would actually be pretty decent.

Michael

Whichever show airs at 8:30 pm on Monday Nights will get hit twice by Monday Night Football games, which begin at 8:30 pm Eastern, and end at 9:00 pm Pacific. They need some sort of counter-programming, unless they go with a 1-hour drama from 8:00 to 9:00. “Two Broke Girls,” with 2 female leads, and no regular non-immigrant white male characters was able to overcome this, although it is unclear what other factors were in play. “Partners”, a show on which 2 of the 4 main characters were gay, but all characters were white, was not able to make the cut. CBS should either move 2BG back to 8:30, or try another show on which none of the main characters are non-immigrant white males in that time slot.

TVDude

The problem for CBS is that they cannot successfully launch a new show at 8:30pm on Mondays. If you take a look back at previous seasons, aside from Two Broke Girls and Rules of Engagement, nothing’s really worked there. With HIMYM ending next season, they need to launch a new hit and unless they expand Thursday’s, Monday at 9:30pm will be the best shot at doing that.

Thursdays could expand, but they seem resistant in moving POI. If it does expand, they will probably move one of the Monday shows over and have one new show on Monday and one on Thursday. M&M would work well after 2.5 Men, while a new show would be trapped between TBBT and 2.5 Men. They could renew Rules and keep it at 8:30pm Mondays and that would open up two great time-slots for new shows. The only problem with this is can Rules and 2.5 get renewed? Both shows are capable of it (especially in terms or ratings), but there are a lot of factors to be considered too.

AJ

I think Rules of Engagement will get renewed just in case a new comedy bombs next year.