Back home, the workers are looking to start afresh. Their best bet seems to be rehabilitation packages.

Back home, the workers are looking to start afresh. Their best bet seems to be rehabilitation packages drawn up by their respective state govts.

The Kerala economy, as we are often reminded by economists, runs on “money orders” — a reference to the huge infusions of cash (remittances) its people who work in Gulf countries send back home.

The fortunes of hundreds of families in Kerala have been built on the Gulf Dream; one statistic famously revealed that every household has at least one member working in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain and the like. So it should not surprise that people of the state top the number of Indians in the Gulf: nearly 2 million of the estimated 6 million Indians holding skilled and unskilled jobs in the region are from Kerala.

But cracks have begun to appear in the Gulf story owing to the profound shifts in labour laws taking place in those countries. Rising unemployment among their youth and influx of immigrants are forcing countries to build walls around their job market.

That has led to hundreds of workers who moved to the Gulf years ago returning home — for good. The familiar sight of joyous reunions in airports of Kerala has been replaced by tearful meetings of families clueless about their future. Take for example, Saudi Arabia. Around 6,820 people have returned to Kerala from Saudi Arabia, according to estimates by Non-Resident Keralite Affairs Department (NORKA)-Roots as on May 16.

Long Flight Back Home

More are preparing to join them. Around 75,000 Indians have registered with the Indian embassy in Riyadh and the consulate in Jeddah seeking emergency certificates (ECs) to leave for India as of May 20. Though Malayalis form the majority of nearly 1.78 million Indians working in Saudi Arabia, swathes of people from other states such as Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Punjab have also flocked to that country in recent times. Of the 56,734 processed applications for ECs, 21,331 came from the people of Uttar Pradesh compared with 3,610 from Kerala citizens.

This reversal of fortunes is by no means sudden. Saudi Arabia actually announced its tough labour law, called ‘Nitaqat’, or categories, nearly two years ago. But its enforcement finally means at least a tenth of the workers in private and public companies and businesses will be Saudis.

Simultaneously, the Saudi government has cracked down on illegal workers in the country. In Saudi Arabia, outside workers require a sponsor — it can be a company or an individual — and they must work with no other. The government is said to have found lakhs of workers flouting these rules by bribing sponsors.

That is not to say this practice is rampant among Indians. Actually Indian workers in Saudi are bearing the brunt of the nexus between immigration agents and sponsors. Many Indians have been duped and their passports illegally confiscated. State governments in India have finally taken note. Like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait too is turning unattractive for Indian workers. The government recently announced plans to send back 100,000 illegal workers annually.

Spreading Panic

An external affairs ministry official says the Indian government is engaging with Kuwait in a big way and no timeframe has been announced. But the panic is spreading as more and more people are preparing to pack their bags for home. Hundreds of Indian workers have been put in deportation centres, according to people who caught a flight back home (the Kuwait government is providing tickets to Mumbai while the Indian government is helping workers reach hometowns).

Those who have returned are looking at an uncertain future. Mohammed Kasim of Malappuram, who worked for almost 20 years in Saudi Arabia, says his best hope for now is a government rehabilitation package. Kasim initially worked for a company but later started a small business of his own. He was forced to shut shop and leave because he was asked to change his sponsor. He was offered an alternative: pay a hefty sum but he opted out.

Kasim joins a group of up to 15,000 Indians who were forced to leave Saudi Arabia permanently, according to immigration experts. NORKA officials say almost 70% of the people who have come back spent up to seven years in Saudi Arabia. The big question facing these workers is this: is the Gulf Dream dead? Not quite. It may only need a few adjustments.

Shifting Geographies

A good number of the returning migrants would switch to another Gulf country, according to immigration experts. Dubai is slowly returning to its former glorious growth levels. Qatar, which is hosting the 2022 football World Cup, requires workers to build mammoth infrastructure projects that the tournament demands. Other countries such as Libya, which experienced the Arab Spring revolution, are emerging as big markets for the Indian workforce thanks to the massive reconstruction work under way.

Anil Trigunayat, ambassador of India to Libya, says during the Libyan revolution, the Indian government had evacuated about 17,000 Indians. Only 3,000 Indians stayed put. The situation has improved radically, according to him. The Libyan government has requested for several hundred doctors, nurses and paramedic staff to beef up its health care sector, which is supported by India, he says. “Several Indian companies are looking to restart their stalled construction projects and have begun to mobilise manpower. Several Korean and Libyan companies are also recruiting Indian technical workforce for their construction, cement and power projects,” he says.

Even in the case of Saudi Arabia, the number of workers flocking to that country has been steadily rising. And not all have given up like Kasim. Mohammed Ashraf of Kozikode, who worked in Jeddah, told ET Magazine that he returned only because his visa term had expired. He says he is exploring options to go back. There are also many people who view Nitaqat positively. They believe the law will streamline the employment process and regulate sponsors and recruitment agents.

It could also usher transparency, with recruitment handled directly by employers by weeding out unscrupulous agents. The new laws have set the stage for a new memorandum of understanding on labour issues between India and Saudi Arabia. It is likely to be signed soon, according to a senior official in the Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs. Indian-owned businesses, which are the biggest recruiters of their countrymen, see no reason for panic.

Ravi Pillai, MD of Nasser S Al-Hajri Corporation, which has a workforce of 70,000 Indians, making it one of the largest employers of Indian workers in the Gulf, says the Saudi government was forced to find job opportunities for its youth after numerous reforms in the education and training sectors raised the literacy rates and technical skills of its citizens. Simulatenously, the unemployment levels too grew, he says. The Saudi government has offered expat workers a grace period up to July 3, 2013 to legalise their status. That would help them get their jobs in order and stay back, he says.

A New Life

Pillai says his business has not been affected because of the recent developments. Nasser S Al-Hajri has conducted open houses in Jeddah, Riyadh, Jazan, Jubail and Dammam for recruitment and absorbed around 2,000 people, according to him. Pillai says the massive industrial projects in Saudi Arabia such as the $12-billion Saudi Aramco-Dow joint venture and the $10-billion Ma’aden Aluminium projects would create huge employment opportunities for Indian workers. “Kuwait also plans to invest $25-30 billion to modernise its refineries, for which it requires mass recruitment,” he says.

Back home, the workers are looking to start afresh. Their best bet seems to be the rehabilitation packages drawn up by their respective state governments. Predictably, the Kerala government has taken the lead here. Its package looks to retrain workers in soft skills and teach them math, IT and English. It has twin objectives: develop skills to grab jobs not only in India but also overseas. Incentives for prospective employers are also in the works. The returning workers could also receive incentives to start small businesses. That might serve as a model for others states as well.