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PHOENIX -- Tropical Storm Paul is skirting the west coast of the Baja Peninsula in Mexico. Winds are estimated around 80 miles an hour. The storm has the potential to produce a lot of rain but is showing signs of weakening. Storm warnings are up for the coastal areas of Baja.

As the storm breaks up, some of the moisture may head toward Arizona. However, the upper level steering currents are still telling us that an abundance of the moisture will stay in Mexico or be shunted to the east of us in New Mexico and Texas. Some of the moisture from the weakening storm system will make it all the way to the Great Lakes states producing showers and thunderstorms there.

We will see some high clouds from time to time, bubbling up from the south. Other than that, it looks like the Valley weather picture isn’t going to change much this week. We’re expecting highs in the mid-90s and lows in the 60s.

A bit of a change for the end of the weekend should drop highs into the 80s, but no significant chance for rain is expected as a storm system passes well to the north of Arizona.

Note: On Thursday, NOAA is expected to put out its latest winter forecast for the United States.