The chain reaction: What BYU’s next move means for the WAC and San Jose State

If you’re a fan of the Western Athletic Conference, or any of its member schools … or if you know anybody who might be … or is considering such an emotional investment in the future … then root for BYU to stick to its plans to become a football independent.

Things don’t look promising for the WAC right now. (How’s that for understatement?) It’s down to six schools. Hawaii’s rumbling about going independent. Utah State’s supposedly trying to get into the MWC. Louisiana Tech’s always a threat to bolt for Conference USA.

But the picture could get a lot dimmer if BYU decides to stay put in the Mountain West.

That would likely set off a chain reaction ending with the WAC losing yet another member. (Even given the massive challenge facing the conference right now, the difference between having six schools and five schools — between needing to add two and add three — feels gigantic.)

Now, I’m no conference commissioner, but work with me here:

If the Cougars stay put, then the Mountain West would have 11 teams and be on the hunt for a 12th, in order to split into two divisions and host a football championship game.

Sure, it could invite Utah State, I suppose, which reportedly turned down an offer to join the MWC earlier this week. That might work well politically within Mormon church and/or Utah state politics.

(The Aggies thought they were doing the right thing by sticking to the binding agreement they made to the WAC, not knowing that Fresno State and Nevada had daggers at the ready … Et tu, Welty?)

But for the MWC, adding Utah State would make far less sense than inviting SMU or, even better, Houston, which only has the 10th biggest TV market in the country.

If Houston leaves the 12-team C-USA, then it starts looking for a replacement. And why wouldn’t it take aim at Louisiana Tech?

Since LaTech has been a geographic misfit in the WAC and has longed to get into C-USA, you’d have to figure the Bulldogs would jump at the chance.

That would leave the WAC with five schools and no eastern anchor to help lure, or justify inviting, an upstart Texas school or two.

Now, it’s entirely possible that the WAC will lose another school even if BYU goes independent. Everything is on such shaky ground and will be for months.

(Because Fresno State and Nevada are legally obligated to stay through the 2011 football season, the league office feels like it has time to remake itself.)

But from this bleacher seat in the expansion world, it sure seems like the league is guaranteed to lose another school if BYU stays in the MWC.

Jon Wilner

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The WAC needs stability. One would hope they are considering aggressive expansion with FCS schools as well as a few Sun Belt schools. Yes, it is a step back but it seems options are few.

SJSU’s lack of commitment to football in the 1990s may be the demise of the program today.

MWC stability is not certain either. TCU can be poached by the Big 12.

rudruff

Big 12 doesn’t need another school in a Texas market.

The WAC does need to find a way to make themselves relevant. Not a lot to hold it together at the moment.

Joker

The WAC just doesn’t have the power to go and grab another FBS team, such as from the Sun Belt. Why would North Texas, for example, leave a 12-team stable conference for a conference with only 6 members? Especially when at least 2 of those schools would jump out if they had a solid landing (Louisiana Tech and Hawaii)?

If anything, the Sun Belt is in a better position to pluck Louisiana Tech (if they lose the ego) and/or New Mexico State (especially if North Texas and Denver stay).

The WAC will have to grab FCS schools, and whether it’s an FCS power like Montana or a bottom feeder like Sacramento State, it’s going to be a long haul for the WAC.

its over for sjsu

Sjsu is done and nobody wants them. Tom bowen did nothing to elevate the program. He needs to be let go…

bassd

TCU will not be invited to the BIG12 simply because they already dominate that market. If TCU were to join any BCS conference, the only ones that make any sense are the SEC and BIG 10, which both have 12 schools, so that’s not likely.

There have been some blog postings and rumors that BYU is trying to court the BIG12, which makes sense for them. Until such time that they are invited, I think the best thing for BYU is to stay in the MWC, the MWC to add Louisiana, and then the WAC to poach the Sun Belt. Perhaps C-USA and MWC could have a bi-conference title game that would be a qualifier for a BCS bowl game?

BGBG

WAC could go after FCS teams in the Big Sky or Great West but only Montana seems to have consistent attendance at FBS levels. They are also one of the best teams in FCS. Probably not much of a TV market…
Are they ready to move up?
Maybe remining WAC teams will all have to go independent

Joker

Montana’s TV market (Missoula) is #166 or so. So yeah, virtually no incentive as far as that goes. It doesn’t do anything to increase the ESPN TV contract. Another problem with the University of Montana is it only sponsors 14 sports, not the required 16 for FBS programs. It can add them, but does it want that added expense? Does it want the added expense of traveling its non-revenue sports to Hawaii? One of the reasons some schools give for moving up to the FBS level is to increase attendance — Montana already sells out, for the most part. They might be able to increase ticket costs to increase revenue, but I just don’t see the WAC helping their program any more than it already is.

Sacramento State and UC Davis, on the other hand, are schools which could see a bump in attendance because of a move up. Fans in the Sacramento area are probably more apt to associate with schools such as San Jose State and Fresno State than schools like Southern Utah or Northern Colorado.

I think FCS schools are the WAC’s only option. I just don’t see them having any clout to attract an FBS school at this point.

OS_Beaver

I think BYU has good leverage in this situation since if the MWC has any chance to get to AQ status in the next few years it will depend on their inclusion..unless they grabbed some Big 12 North schools. Since BYU is friends with USU and they like playing eachother and want to be in the same conference, BYU should have USU inclusion as the top factor for their return. USU has a nice campus, is pretty good in football and since the MWC already offered them, it would show some class to just tidy things up and have USU join BYU as long as BYU returns. They will have a respectable MWC that won’t likely get their AQ yet but maybe can try the C-USA title game trick in hopes that helps..although I think C-USA is too weak to help. I think they should just take their 12 and with Boise St, BYU, and TCU..as long as they have a strong next couple years..they should earn the AQ. Otherwise, look to a few Big 12 North teams along with maybe Houston or Utep and get to 16 teams as a strong enough superconference that deserves an AQ. A title game with C-USA doesn’t impress me much.

J.T.

The WAC is about finished and I can almost guarantee you it won’t be around by 2012 or 2013. Once Hawaii bolts (and they will almost certainly go independent in football and to the Big West in all other sports from what I am hearing), Louisiana Tech will be gone.

I’m not sure what San Jose State’s options really are. Dropping football all together seems like a very real possibility at this time. The saddest part is that not many people would miss it.

No one wants New Mexico State or Idaho. Have you ever been to Las Cruces or Moscow? Idaho plays football in a 16,000 seat indoor barn. Neither team draws well. Without Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada in the WAC, there is no WAC. Hawaii is the only decent one left and you know they can’t wait to leave now. They are a good program that draws well and is competitive but the remote location hurts them tremendously.

RIP WAC.

K. G.

I think, in the end, B.Y.U. was made to look like the fool here. They deceitfully tried to leave the MWC and used the W.A.C. to help cushion that only to find that the MWC commissioner out thought and out moved them.

As I saw someone else put it – it’s like B.Y.U., and or Karl Benson (W.A.C. commissioner) brought checkers to a chess match. Both B.Y.U. and Benson ended up looking like fools in all this.

Frankly, as a Boise State fan, I sincerely hope B.Y.U. does NOT leave the Mtn. West now. Sure, they CAN do that, but IMO that is going to backfire on them as well. Now, with Fresno State and Nevada headed to the MWC (and Utah State WILL move there also now – guaranteed) the WAC is finished after the 2011-2012 school year. So BYU’s plan to have their non-football sports participate in the WAC is D.O.A. after just one year. They could take their non-football sports to the WWC but those schools have facilities that are high school level (at most).

IF the Cougs of BYU do, in fact, go independent in football…..good luck. They will need LOTS of it. LOL

bdp

Big time college football will shake down to only schools with huge TV followings. Would not blame the sjsu AD for the inevitable dropping of football, sjsu just not the right fit, culturally or financially, for expensive football programs of the modern era. No shame to SJSU, they do many, many other things well–such as educating lots of students who want to learn but can’t afford to live away from home, or older students who have a family.

RIP WAC and numerous football programs. It’s been fun, but reality bites.

mT

The WAC will survive because they have BOWL GAME contracts, TV contracts and a COOL $10 Million Bucks owed ASAP!
They need to collect the TRIO of FCS teams that are better than you think to join. Sacramento State, Davis, and Cal Poly have all had relationships for 40+ years of sports. They are all committed to football. The travel costs and rivalries are all there now with a national stage.
The WAC could offer payment plans to the Fresno St and Nevada teams in return for them playing each of those mentioned new WAC members for 5 years. The home ticket revenue etc will elevate those games and make some great TV numbers as they are local teams now.
The mtn West new members would gripe initially but realize it would be a great non conference relationship because of the low cost travel (bus ride) to each of those schools.
After Year 5 they could alternate locations like everybody else would!

All would be back to normal, because the new programs would be strong at this point!

The WAC Survives again just like a scary movie freddie kruger!

mT

Forgot to add this sorry…also BYU is the ONLY team that can pull off the independent football program.

Hawaii is crazy to try independent. Only early season games would be scheduled with them. Late in the season nobody wants to be distracted with hula dancers, expensive travle tickets / hotels etc along with several days of pure travel to that 1000 mile journey?

BYU should go independent, TRIO should join WAC and WAC should look at Houston etc as a texas team as well!

Manny SJSU 75

Sadly the Spartans haven’t been competitive in the WAC or Div. 1 football for years. SJSU v Fresno State used to be a real rivalry. But the Bulldogs went on to become a mid major powerhouse program and left the Spartans behind a long time ago. I don’t blame Fresno State for jumping to a better conference for some more attention. It says a lot that the MWC didn’t consider asking San Jose State to leave the WAC. It hurts to say it but maybe SJS needs to go down a level and play with smaller college programs. I don’t want to see my alma mater give up football but once again I see the Spartans slated to end up last in it’s own conference, according to pre season polls. It has been reduced to making money by being a punching bag for major programs like Alabama. Hey I’m to blame as much as anyone. I keep talking about taking a drive down to San Jose and watch the Spartans. Instead like a lot of other alumni, I stay home and watch the team play in front of a half empty stadium.

Joker

The bowl game contracts are iffy. If Hawaii should choose to go independent, the bowl game there would stay with it (or become an at large bowl). ESPN owns that bowl, I believe. The Humanitarian Bowl in Boise will follow BSU to the MWC when that contract is up for renewal (if they even decide to keep it around — remember, it was formed so that the Big West football champion would have a bowl game, because there were no bowl options for that conference at the time).

Karl Benson has already said that the ESPN TV contract was going to take a big hit after BSU left (it was paying a few hundred thousand per member per year). Now that the 3 marquee schools have left, ESPN is going to butcher it even more than expected.

Rather than a huge initial outlay of money to jump now, it would be nice to see that trio of schools get in the same conference and make a goal of jumpting to FBS (if that’s what they want) down the road. That gives them time to sort finances and build the necessary infrastructure.

Kerr

Hawaii is crazy to try independent. Only early season games would be scheduled with them. Late in the season nobody wants to be distracted with hula dancers, expensive travle tickets / hotels etc along with several days of pure travel to that 1000 mile journey?

Actually, several Big 10 and Big East teams have played at Hawaii in late Nov./early Dec. For those teams and their fans, a trip to Hawaii is a nice reward and great change from the weather back home. When the game is played Thanksgiving weekend, it is an even bigger draw.

rudruff

Hawaii goes independent because it has to, not because it wants to. It is too hard to sell a new conference on all the travel costs associated with inviting them.

They can get a little out of ESPN because their home games are on so late there is no other College Football on. This may allow them to be independent. Unfortunately, and excess revenues will get used up in subsidizing travel costs for opponents.

bigtuna

How about some perspective? Besides BYU, who really cares about most of the rest of either conference?? They are a bunch of mid majors, who earnestly play sports. Big deal. Some realignments might occur; maybe a few schools will wake up and figure that its time to thow in the towel, and spend the money on things like, oh, I don;t know – educating people?

Tom

Something is utterly wrong when a freeloading leech like San Diego State, which has not done jack in football in over a decade, is on the verge of gaining BCS status just for living off the MWC name. While SJSU is relegated to obscurity. What makes them any more deserving than SJSU? Similar attendance, similar resumes, just different conference affiliations.

I guess Hawaii, San Jose State and New Mexico State can join the Big West for non-football sports. Hawaii will probably go indy for football, while SJSU and NMSU will go to the Great West.

D W

Geographic misfit? Sounds like TCU in the MWC. Need the Frogs to return to more Texas competition, where they can raise their game even more than they already have.

All the buzz this week in college football has been about whether BYU will leave the Mountain West conference and choose to play football as a major independent like Notre Dame. Like many difficult decisions, there are both pros and cons to such a bold move.

Manny 75 – SJSU did blow it in the 1990s. In 1990 SJSU was on-par if not slightly ahead of Fresno….it’s been a disaster since with only infrequent success (usually in the form of 1-2 nice wins, not winning seasons). SJSU also used to man-handle Nevada less than a decade ago (esp. with Deonce Whitaker)…last year the Pack was so far above SJSU the game was unwatchable.

One benefit of SJSU stinking it up is the games are easy to see live. Easy parking and a short walk.

Frank

At this point, SJSU should look at going independent for the next few years (at least in fottball).
Schedule games that are winnable to bolster fan interest and recruiting interest and then wait to be wooed by a conference on SJSU terms.
Start in 2013.
GO SPARTANS

jack

J.T. says:
August 21st, 2010 at 12:31 pm

The WAC is about finished and I can almost guarantee you it won’t be around by 2012 or 2013. Once Hawaii bolts (and they will almost certainly go independent in football and to the Big West in all other sports from what I am hearing), Louisiana Tech will be gone.

I’m not sure what San Jose State’s options really are. Dropping football all together seems like a very real possibility at this time. The saddest part is that not many people would miss it.

No one wants New Mexico State or Idaho. Have you ever been to Las Cruces or Moscow? Idaho plays football in a 16,000 seat indoor barn. Neither team draws well. Without Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada in the WAC, there is no WAC. Hawaii is the only decent one left and you know they can’t wait to leave now. They are a good program that draws well and is competitive but the remote location hurts them tremendously.

RIP WAC.

Las Cruces is a great place. Are current coach is really trying to turn around football. He is one year away from that

John

The WAC will not be “poaching” Sun Belt Schools. With the loss of Fresno and Nevada and the WAC looking to the FCS, it is now the worst football conference in America. The Sun Belt schools want no part of that, or the late kickoff times, or the travel expenses.

The Sun Belt has become a stable league with (soon to be) 10 football playing schools (South Alabama is moving up) and 12 schools overall.

Much more stable than anything the WAC can offer.

And, regardless of what you might hear from bloggers, La. Tech would NOT be CUSA’s first choice.

Matt

Utah State will join the MWC if BYU stays. The MWC has to throw BYU a bone if BYU stays, and letting BYU show a game or two on BYU-TV is not a big enough bone. USU going to the MWC lets BYU save a little face and pretend they stayed to help their in-state little buddy.

In fact, I’d bet the MWC is using USU as a hostage right now. I bet they’re telling BYU that USU is in if BYU stays but only if BYU stays, meaning that if BYU leaves, USU’s football program will sink to the bottom of the ocean along with every other WAC program that can’t find a new conference or go independent.

Me

Mark my words, BYU will NOT stay in the MWC unless they get major concessions regarding the broadcast rights to their football games, or the MWC let’s BYU football go independent, while letting their other sports stay in the MWC. BYU is tired of the lousy tv contract with Comcast, and wants to leverage their new broadcasting center and BYU-TV. BYU can make 4 or 5 times more money from a contract with ESPN as a football independent, and also have the right to show all their games on BYU-TV. If BYU leaves the MWC, Comcast can nullify the tv contract.

@KG – “in the end BYU was made to look like a fool” Really? This is not the end buddy. The MWC and Thompson have played all their cards. Now BYU has until Sept 1 to make their move. One way or another, BYU is going to get what it wants, which is more exposure, and more money.

Iconoclast

Where do all of the “experts” on this board get their opinions? Obviously from peering up inside their rectums. Re: some of the claims that have been made about WAC/MWC team on this thread. In no particular order:

1. – One poster says “…Utah State has been pretty good in football..” Uh, the last time USU was pretty good in football was between 1957 – 1962 when John Ralston was their head coach and a guy named Merlin Olson played football there. USU’s W-L record over the past 30 years has been miserable. They make SJS look good.

2. – Another poster talks about Hawaii having no problem drawing football games as an independent. Really? If UH could make it as independent they would’ve stayed that course and never joined the WAC in the late 1970’s. Reality bites. Here’s the reality: UH can get September games as an independent and they can get late November – early December games as an indy. But, when it’s conference time, very few coaches want their team distracted by either a long road trip to the islands or bringing in an independent mid-major team during the middle of conference play. As a mid-major indy, it will be very difficult for UH to fill out their dance card in October and November.

3. – One SJS fan tries to claim that “..SJS was ‘even’ with Fresno St. in 1990..” Uh, NO!!! The last time SJS was ‘even’ with FSU on the field, fan support-wise and facilities was in the late 1970’s before Bulldog Stadium was built. Once FSU built Bulldog Stadium in 1980, they lapped SJS numerous times. The Spartans had some great on-field success vs. Fresno from 1980 – 1990, but where it really counts – in building the infrastructure that gives you a first-division conference program (in all sports) SJS fell far behind FSU. Even realistic SJS fans and administrators will admit as much.

4. – Some posters think BYU will be fine coming back to the MWC. IMHO, not really. Up until Utah left for the Pac-10, BYU was always seen as the 800-pound MWC “gorilla”. This whole episiode as exposed them as a strong mid-major but not the “dominator” that they have viewed themselves as for decades. And now the rest of the MWC knows this too. If BYU stays in the MWC, they will no longer sit at the head of the table, with their boots up on the table, telling Colorado St., Wyoming, New Mexico and the rest of the MWC – “…BYU has thought long and hard about this issue and BYU has decided what we’re all going to do…” That dog don’t hunt no more. BYU stays in the MWC and loses face. That’s not a good outcome in their world (which they are the center of). I think the Cougs go indy in football and will work out something with another conference for minor sports.

5. – Conference moves still are not done. TCU is making noise like they may be going somewhere else. USU in the MWC. They had their chance, but I don’t know that the MWC would take them if both BYU and TCU leave. MWC commissioner Craig Thompson said the expansion adds of Fresno and Nevada were designed to improve the MWC. How does Utah State improve the MWC? Besides basketball, they bring nothing to the table.

jj

SJSU has cool uniforms. They will be fine.

SeattleSpartan

For all of you already throwing in the towel for San Jose State, you guys are pathetic. SJS football isn’t predicated on playing Fresno or Nevada. Neither one of those schools have done much of anything. They’ve just been a little better than SJS during our poor coaching stretch.

I personally wouldn’t mind seeing SJS go independent. There’s a lot of options for scheduling games both at the BCS conference and FCS levels. I think it would actually raise the interest in SJS football.

MostWantedSpartan

I wonder what the remaining Presidents are thinking now?

Did anybody care about seeing Nevada, Boise or Fresno come to town?

What would be the difference if it was say Portland State, Sacramento State, Montana etc? As a fan I would prefer the “WAC” change it’s brand to the North Pacific Conference and add teams only along the Pacific. No far reaching schools and no mountain schools but Hawaii keep because of the concessions for playing at Hawaii such as a 13th game, Bowl etc. etc.

SPARTAN FAN

SJSU is on it’s way back. A couple of tough years ahead but the future looks bright. Everybody made their dire predictions when the Big West jumble occurred and we made it out alive. The WAC is melting down but there are plenty of options for the remaining teams. Last time I checked Fresno and Nevada were no national football powerhouses and they found a place to play. So will the remainder of the WAC.

MostWantedSpartan

I take that part of no mountain schools back. The only mountain school the WAC or North Pacific Conference should have is BYU. I think BYU would enjoy playing on ESPN and getting more National Exposure.

MostWantedSpartan

Actually I take pretty much that whole post back. Here’s the comment I made in the BYU War Room article:

Karl Benson and the WAC presidents should stop sitting idle and offer BYU FOOTBALL more $$ than the MWC. The MWC might be tapped out by now and are facing the $10 million owed to the WAC for Fresno and Nevada. I think the WAC could survive if that happens. Doing nothing hasn’t worked so far. Take a shot, you never know.

BYU
Hawaii
San Jose State
Utah State
La Tech
Idaho
New Mexico State
UC Davis
Cal Poly
Portland State
Sacramento State
Maybe Texas State for a travel partner for La Tech NMSU?

That’s 12 and available for a Championship game. Looks good.

Big Planner

The WAC needs to grab 6 FCS schools, including the California trio, and build itself up to 12 members to guard against future defections as well as keep Hawaii around.

Put BYU in the East if they still want to join the WAC for everything except football (or move Idaho to the West). Conferences have operated with 13 members before.

MostWantedSpartan

I like my post with BYU FOOTBALL joining the WAC. The WAC should collaborate their own t.v. deal. ESPN should be fine for now but creating a new t.v. deal that can reach into homes nationally like ESPN should be the goal. If the conference splits into East and West divisions that’s fine BUT I really like the way the conference looks with BYU included. Of course BYU wants to go indy but they could always do that. Let’s give it a shot and see what happens first. With BYU included the WAC could still compete with the MWC and the Pac 10 as far as competition except maybe for the FCS schools for at least 5 or 10 years anyways..

MostWantedSpartan

I like my post with BYU FOOTBALL joining the WAC. The WAC should collaborate their own t.v. deal. ESPN should be fine for now but creating a new t.v. deal that can reach into homes nationally like ESPN should be the goal. If the conference splits into East and West divisions that’s fine BUT I really like the way the conference looks with BYU included. Of course BYU wants to go indy but they could always do that. Let’s give it a shot and see what happens first. With BYU included the WAC could still compete with the MWC and the Pac 10 as far as competition.

Obviously no one here knows what they are talking about. The NCAA has put a moratorium on FCS schools making a jump to the FBS. It expires August 9, 2011. At that point teams are able to being the exploratory process again. And does anyone here have a clue what that process is?

You have to participate in 16 varsity sports, 8 of which must be all female. Some of these schools may fit there. They must provide at least 90 percent of the maximum allowed scholarships in football, and 200 overall in all sports or four million dollars. They must average 15,000 people in home attendance for two consecutive years. None of those teams have. And you must schedule 60% of your games against FBS teams, with 5 home contests against FBS teams each year.

Not on of these trio teams comes close. Sorry folks. The WAC cannot simply grab FCS teams and make them FBS. There is a lot more to it than that. The WAC is completely dead. BYU will go independent and play in the WCC. LA Tech will go to the Sun Belt or CUSA. Hawaii will go independent. And no one will still care about SJSU, Idaho, New Mexico State or Utah State.

Interesting article The chain reaction: What BYU’s next move means for the WAC and San Jose State | College Hotline. I’ve not considered this before. It is often a wonder what you might discover on the web.