Consider first that Chapman's two love interests, Vause and Larry, could not possibly be more different, completely apart from the fact that Vause is a woman and Larry is a man. Chapman is clearly passionate about Vause, but about Larry? Hardly. That by itself is only suggestive, but now consider some further facts: in "Bora Bora Bora," when the other inmates try to use Chapman to scare the girls in the scared straight program by claiming that Chapman is a lesbian rapist who will sexually assault them, what part of the accusation does Chapman feel the need to deny? Not the claim that she's a rapist, but that she's a lesbian: "I'm not even all the way like that." Why should it be so important to her not to be thought of as a lesbian, even though the whole prison knows by that point that she's having an affair with Vause? Then consider what she says later in that same scene, after the girl in the wheelchair calls her a "d**e f***t b***h," and she gets angry and decides to scare the girl for real. What does she tell her to really scare her? That in prison, she cannot run away or hide from herself. That here, she has to face who and what she truly is. What could Chapman be talking about? What specific facts about herself has she had to confront in prison? Given the overall context of the scene, doesn't it seem likely that she's talking about her attraction to and feelings for Vause? Doesn't it seem possible that Chapman has spent the eight years since she left Vause telling herself 'Oh, it's just a phase, lots of girls experiment in college, but now I'm settling down with a man. See, I'm engaged to Larry. I'm completely normal.' She wants to tell herself that it was just a phase then, and that, really, it's just a phase now in prison. But maybe she's really just gay and in denial.

She tells her friend she likes attractive people in general. She didn't go straight from Alex to Larry.

We never actually meet him, just get these vague threats about budget cuts and how he'll react. Plus she drives a Mercedes.

Fig's dialog with the other employees clearly refers to the warden as a separate person. If she was referring to herself in the third person all the time her subordinates would think she was insane. And we see her climb into her Mercedes immediately after a reporter calls her to ask why everyone is talking about those budget cuts even though the prison's budget has been increased by $2.5 million over the past few years. Fig's sweet ride (and her generally luxurious wardrobe) strongly suggest that she's using her position to embezzle money from the budget, or at least to wildly inflate her salary.

Jossed. The warden exits off-screen and Caputo takes the job at the end of Season 3.

Larry's Dad threw Piper's case.

It seems flimsy that she is in prison for over a year for carrying money (not even drugs). She was also encouraged not to go to trial and the statute of limitations was almost up? She is clearly living a clean life now. Wouldn't character witnesses exonerate or at least reduce the sentence even more? Larry's parents clearly don't advocate the relationship between Piper and Larry, so putting her in prison for over a year is a great way to get her out of the picture.

Piper Kerman, whose book this series is based on, did indeed serve 13 months in jail for carrying a suitcase full of money ten years before. She made a plea bargain because there was still a possibility, despite her social status and the fact she'd been a law-abiding citizen ever since the commission of the crime, that if she lost at trial she'd get 7 years or more. Mandatory minimums for drug related convictions are insanely high, which is why prisons are so over-crowded these days. The point is that it was ridiculous for her to go to jail for year. Not that Larry's dad threw the case. Which, by the way, is illegal and would lead him to be disbarred and open himself up to a malpractice lawsuit.

That's all well and good but this is a fictionalised account and many other differences between Kerman's actual experience and what Chapman is going through. Creative licence and all.

Alex lied about her mom dying when Piper was breaking up with her.

We've seen that Alex is not completely truthful with Piper, since she lied about snitching on her. And she tried to use her mom's death to manipulate Piper into staying with her. And the timing was awfully convenient. Since there's no proof her mom died other than her own word, I'd say there's a pretty good chance she was just lying. If Piper decided to stay with her because of it, she could have found out that she'd been lied to when there wasn't a funeral or anything, but maybe Alex wasn't thinking that far ahead or else would have just made up a reason why Piper couldn't go to the funeral.

Season 3 shows that she was telling the truth, and that she attended the funeral.

Figueroa will end up in Litchfield.

Eventually her embezzling will come out, and in a twist of irony she will be sentenced to Litchfield.

Alex will take the blame for Piper assaulting Pennsatucky.

If the rumors that Laura Prepon is leaving the show are true then after taking the blame for said action, Alex will either be moved to a different prison or moved to maximum security.

Disproved in season 2.

Tricia's death wasn't an accident.

Take a look at her when she's talking to Nicky. She tells her she's going to make everything right with Red and that they would be square. Also, earlier in the episode she mentions that Mercy hasn't been answering her calls and she's had barely any contact with her. Then she is given a bunch of drugs by Mendez to get rid of. She realized her life was hell right now- Red didn't trust her and she wasn't one of her girls anymore, her girlfriend wouldn't talk to her and she still had the looming threat of Mendez around. This led her to kill herself.

Of course it wasn't an accident. She snorted an entire bag of heroin. It's not like she tripped and fell on it. It's made clear from the events leading to her death that Tricia committed suicide..

Healy's first wife left him for another woman.

Just take a look at Healy: a guy in his 50s who's weary and yet has a Russian mail-order bride. He comes across as someone who is desperate to not be lonely. Thus, it's possible that his first wife turned out to be gay, destroying his heart, and that's why he has a weird vendetta against lesbians.

Nope. His dad taught him to hate lesbians.

Vee will attempt an escape.

The supposed "storm" that is coming is Vee trying to escape from the prison. She seems likeable enough, given that she looks to be befriending some inmates from the trailer but there has to be a reason she and Red have tension together. Maybe she's trying to gather some people to make an escape.

Confirmed; Vee attempts to escape in the finale, but she doesn't quite succeed.

Piper will get out of prison at some point in the series, though will stay as a side character.

After getting out of prison, there won't be as much focus on her, but she will work to support prisoner's rights and campaign for better treatment. There will also be some following of her life after prison and attempt to try for a normal life.

She will work for a halfway house of some kind for prisoners just getting on their feet. This would be a way of keeping Piper relevant to the lives of the other inmates, and the prison industry in general, without making viewers bored of her "normal life" - which is a notion she, herself, seems to be abandoning more and more (especially obvious in the furlough episode). Piper's later character development will revolve around being a Warden/Caretaker/Authority figure to the other women, and the conflicts that arise from her position over them as she becomes increasingly hardass and no nonsense. By the series end, Piper will become a respectable team mom to women getting out of prison.

She does get a furlough in Season 2. If the timeline is correct, Piper is set to serve 15 months. So far each season has been about 3 months, which leaves room for about 5 seasons of the show.

Agreeing with the idea of Piper becoming more and more distant from her old self as she spends more time in prison. But, perhaps if the series continues long enough where the timeline would stop making sense (Daya's pregnancy would be a good yardstick) the writers may choose to keep her in prison, by having her get involved with something that ends up lengthening her sentence.

As Daya and Piper arrived at the same time, + about 3 weeks before Daya and Bennet get together + 9 months to the birth of Daya's child at the end of season 3 means approximately 10 months have passed by then. Judging by how long the seasons have been, there is maybe 1 or 2 seasons until Piper's original sentence is finished.

Depends if she was charged with perjury in season 2, but as she would've need to be present, and nothing has been shown...

As of Season 4, it's confirmed that she's had five months added to her sentence. That plus the (sort of) Time Skip in Season 4 makes it likely she may stay in prison for all seven seasons the show's been renewed for. After that, who knows?

Miss Claudette was never convicted of murder.

She's a very clean woman and left the place spotless (save for some blood on the floor) after killing the client. When she's given a chance to appeal for early release, it's stated to be because of immigration reform. Murder wasn't mentioned or implied.

IIRC, she adjusted a towel that was on the counter when she wasn't wearing gloves... Not sure if that would be enough to pin her to the crime, though.

This is pretty much confirmed as true, given the way the other inmates and Healy discuss her reason for being in prison and her case being reopened.

Healy is crazy infatuated with Piper.

Ever since she came to the prison, he always took a special interest in her. He sent her to the SHU for erotic dancing with another woman, but we've never seen any other character get sent there for lesbian activity. He sent Piper to the SHU out of jealousy.

Then again: he was willing to let Pennsatucky shiv Piper in the first season finale, hasn't paid much attention to her since the second season began, and by season three he is shown to really care about his wife and even developing romantic feelings for Red. This Troper thinks it's just the odd vendetta he has against lesbians.

Cliche as it may be, it'd probably solve that storyline. There'd be less evidence that Daya and Bennett were in a relationship.

Considering how slow the timeline of this series is, with barely three months between seasons (by looking at Thanksgiving and Valentine's Day episodes), her pregnancy could very well just last as long as the show does.

Jossed: has the baby after a difficult childbirth in the penultimate episode of series 3.

Caputo keeps Daya's and Bennett's secret.

And helps them out in the third season.

In the end of the second season, when he agrees to keep their secret, but more to save his own neck than out of the kindness of this heart. He never tried to help them at any point in season three.

Caputo goes to extreme lengths.

Combining the above WM Gs with a darker twist ... Caputo will see to it that Daya miscarries - covertly so he can keep up appearances and his job.

While not impossible, it is implausible. Given the high(ish) profile nature of the case, for the victim's baby to conveniently miscarry, the media would be all over that, making Caputo's life a living hell. He seems to be a pragmatist above all else, and as far as he's concerned, the child's father has been publicly covered, and it got rid of a dangerous employee. I don't see him rocking the boat unless he has to. That being said, those last four words are pretty key here, too.

Jossed. Daya gives birth and Cesar takes care of the child.

Nicky will relapse in Season 3.

The way she was eyeing the bags of stashed heroin in the final episode of Season 2 definitely seems like she is considering using it again.

Possible. While she seemed very tempted to start using again, she did not appear fall off the wagon. But she was sent to maximum security after Luschek ratted her out for drug possession (they had made a deal for him to sell the heroin). At first glance, it seems as if the heroin were Luschek's and he hid it in his desk. In fact, the drugs were Nicky's. Luschek sold everything he had. The heroin was stuck to the desk with the gum Nicky was chewing. Additionally, Nicky is acting strange in this very scene and all the flashbacks focus on how she has always gone back to heroin no matter how many times she's "quit".

Confirmed, sort of, as of Season 4. She manages to stay clean in max and even earns a "three year" AA/NA chip. However, the events that send her back to Litchfield start her on a downward spiral and she starts using again, even going so far as to smoke crack with Alex and Piper in the field.

Maritza is going to get revenge on Coates.

Last time we see him, Maritza is introducing herself as the new driver. Big Boo and Pennsatucky have an Oh, Crap! moment. Maritza has Gloria on her side, and Gloria has lots of people on her side. Getting a good revenge will be easy...

He's not interested in Maritza and doesn't try anything.

Cesar will tell Mendez the truth about Daya and Bennett in men's prison.

Pornstache will get out and want revenge against both. And the baby too for that matter.

Half Jossed, half confirmed. Mendez's mother, not Cesar, tells him about the baby having a different father, but she doesn't give a name. Besides, with how high profile his case was (and because Rape Is a Special Kind of Evil), Pornstache might not be getting out any time soon.

What happens to Alex.

Season 3 ended with a cliffhanger where Alex runs into an old drug partner who took a job as a guard to go after her, leaving the viewer wondering if she's about to be killed. But I don't think they'll do that kind of cliffhanger just to kill her off immediately. My theory? Someone walks in, so the guard doesn't kill her. When he walked in, Alex said "Took you long enough", as if she was expecting someone, so that could be foreshadowing. But now Alex has to live in the prison with the constant threat of his presence. The person who walks in may be Lolly, and Alex has to continue the conspiracy stuff with her.

Lolly, Piper, and Chang are the only inmates who aren't seen at the lake. It's possible that it will be one of them who saves Alex.

Confirmed. It is Lolly who bursts in and kills the guard before he can kill Alex.

Piper will end up in Max

She'll get framed with contraband the same way she framed Stella and get sent down the hill to Max. This would be one way for previous characters sent there like Ms. Claudette, Nicky, and Stella to appear again in Season 4.

Jossed. Piper does not go to max in Season 4. Nicky, however, does return from max. We also see Stella and one of the "Golden Girls" from Season Two during the max scenes.

Piper will become a Sith Lord at the end

She seems to be getting worse with each season so who knows.

Potential Flashback episodes for Season 4

One of them would involve Frieda, the redhead golden girl and what led to her slicing off her husband's penis. It could also show that Jimmy was a lot smarter and perhaps much worse than Vee before Alzheimer's kicked in, as well as how she got that name.

Jossed, she doesn't get backstory.

If Figueroa has a bigger role in the next season, perhaps it would show that she's Formerly Fat and had to work her way up to get where she is.

Jossed. Fig only has a brief appearance and no flashbacks.

More of Healy's past is revealed showing how he had to deal with his mentally ill mother.

Confirmed.

If Lolly's past is shown, it'll show that her paranoia about the NSA was all a cruel form of gaslighting.

Given Taystee's Incompatible Orientation, it seems as thought Poussey is going to have to move on at some point. She and Soso seemed to share a moment at the lake in the season three finale, so this could be the way they're heading.

Confirmed, they're a couple in season 4.

Maritza has/develops feelings for Flaca

The kiss in season 2, and one scene in season 3 has Flaca say goodbye to Maritza and Maritza stares, looking upset, as she walks away. And now the season 4 trailer shows them embracing. Who knows what will happen.

Jossed. They have a strong friendship, but nothing more than that.

What Daya will do at the start of season 5.

She decides not to shoot the CO, but he will get trampled to death or something by the rest of the inmates.

Gloria talks her out of shooting him.

Poussey Washington's flashback of a surreal night in New York in the last episode of season 4 was actually not a flashback but her afterlife.

It is after all the first post-mortem flashback the show has had. This theory has been suggested in a few articles, supported by the fact that while in New York the World Trade Center tower is lit up, and would not have been lit up yet before Washington was in prison.

Note: this is a crack theory about the fictionalized prison from the Netflix show. The presents of rich, white girls like Piper and Alex in prison is because, despite all contrary evidence - the people who really operate Litchfield are smart enough to realize that they wouldn't look good to the outside world if they didn't have a couple of pretty white girls in with the mix. Could explain why the guys from max seem so lax with using deadly force on inmates and react to the actual death of an inmate with despicable indifference - it's pretty much the bulk of their job to arbitrarily off inmates anyway.

Kubra will find out Alex is alive

She'll be caught on film during the riot and he'll send another undercover hitman to kill her.

Lolly will get out of Psych

By then she'll be heavily medicated to keep her a functioning person. She'll run out of her meds and slowly end up right back to hearing voices in her head.

Aleida will end up back in Litchfield

Whether Daya kills Humphrey or not, she'll end up committing crime to get herself thrown back into Litchfield to protect her daughter.

Jossed. The closest Aleida gets to Litchfield is being outside the prison so she can see Daya.

Caputo will be fired and most likely arrested from Litchfield

Which would leave Piscatella to take over and be more in line with MCC's standards.

While Caputo being fired was discussed in-universe, Piscatella taking the helm has been Jossed. a headshot will do that to you.

Now that Piper and Alex are engaged, Kubra would pose a greater threat to Alex, assuming he finds out she is still alive. He will hunt her down himself, even if it means trying to take her out from inside the prison.

One or more of the SWAT team in the finale will be a guard

Since Piscatella was killed in the season 5 finale, there'll have to be a new monster for the show. Especially the SWAT leader.

Season 6 will begin like Season 2 did.

In Season 2, it was left hanging whether or not Piper killed Tucky until halfway through the first episode of the Season. Something similar will happen in Season 6. It'll start off following an inmate who we know the status of like Lorna or Big Boo, or maybe Sophia. Then the episode will proceed to show us bits and pieces about each of the different buses that reoccurring characters got onto. It's only halfway through the episode when we learn what happened in the Pool.

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