Joe Maddon’s logic inviting

Sean McAdamThursday, October 16, 2008

Credit: John Wilcox

CHANGEUP: Rays skipper Joe Maddon has juggled his pitching rotation.

If Joe Maddon doesn’t win the American League Manager of the Year award in balloting conducted by the Baseball Writers Association of America, and win it unanimously, there should be a complete and thorough investigation.

Maddon is the reason the Tampa Bay Rays improved by 31 games from last season. He’s the reason the Rays went from laughingstock to the best story in baseball. His patience, leadership and foresight have brought the Rays to the brink of the American League pennant and for that, he should be heartily congratulated.

He should also be thanked by the Red Sox, because Maddon has now offered them a path to victory, or at the very least, a chance to climb back into the American League Championship Series with his decision to pitch Scott Kazmir instead of James Shields in Game 5 tonight.

“We’re not looking to give them any kind of crack,” Maddon said yesterday.

But he’s done more than offer them a crack. In rearranging his rotation with an apparent eye toward a worst-case scenario, Maddon is holding the door wide open for the Red Sox, taking their coats and directing them to make themselves comfortable.

The Rays lead the Sox, you may have heard, 3-1 and are a win away from reaching the World Series. Even better for the Rays, they had their best and toughest starter lined up to start the potential pennant clincher tonight.

But then Maddon got to thinking: What if, he apparently wondered, the Red Sox managed to beat Shields in Game 5? Then what? Then the Rays would return home with Kazmir for Game 6. And what if the Sox won that one, too? They’d have Jon Lester lined up for a winter-take-all Game 7.

Then what?

The manager also noted that Kazmir has had difficulty with efficiency and was likely to need relief help. With an off day yesterday and another tomorrow, the Rays could feel free to empty their bullpen, knowing there would be time to recover for Game 6.

This is backward thinking. Somewhere along the way, Maddon forgot the most salient point: His Rays, not the Red Sox, control the series. His team has outscored the Sox, 22-5, in the past two games. His club, not the Red Sox, can wrap up the series tonight.

But for some reason, Maddon is exuding a whiff of panic. Why worry about the weekend when you can put the Sox away now? The Red Sox haven’t won a game since last Friday and the momentum is all on the side of Tampa Bay.

Imagine an NBA coach taking a timeout with his team in the middle of a 17-2 run. That’s what Maddon has done here.

Shields was brilliant in Game 1, allowing one run through seven innings before a misplay by Carl Crawford in left led to a run in the eighth. If he were to duplicate that outing tonight, the Rays would likely celebrate winning the pennant on the Fenway lawn, fly home and Maddon would have plenty of time to arrange his rotation any way he chooses for next week’s World Series.

The Rays need only one more win and Shields offers the Rays the best chance to get it tonight. If you start worrying about Games 6 and 7, pretty soon you might be forced into playing them.