Sunday, January 13, 2008 CE

Monitoring Peak Oil Number 8

World Total Liquids Production -November 2007: 86.55 millions of barrels per day (mbpd).

This is again the largest production recorded. However, the figure is very close to the ones on October 2007 and July 2006 so technically the global production is still at a plateau. The supply/demand relationship is still worrisome for 2008, which leads me to think that the barrel price will be more expensive than the average for 2007. If the world economy goes into a recession in 2008, the demand side of the equation would ease up the tendencies of price-climbing.

Even the DOE estimates that we have nearly four times as much oil in the US (2,594 bbo) as has been produced from the whole world throughout all of time (718 bbo IEA). The problem is that it's all in heavy state, oil sands, oil shales, etc...

It's just a price issue. We're going to find an alternative to oil long before we actually run out of it - maybe because the price becomes prohibitive, but nevertheless...

Thanks for commenting in the blog. I agree with you regarding the fact that we are running out of ceap oil. There will be oil probably for longer than the existence of the human species. I agree also with your statement concerning an alternative form of energy. However, i do not agree with your optimist view. I believe that the adjustment of the qualitative energy usage will be painful.

I agree with both of you. Effay is right that we have plenty of energy - in fact everything is energy. You are right, it will be painful for many people - those that do not adapt. Just like when agriculture and manufacturing declined. It was tough on the buggy whip industry...

I agree also with your statement concerning an alternative form of energy. However, i do not agree with your optimist view. I believe that the adjustment of the qualitative energy usage will be painful.

The best solution to this problem is to allow the prices of oil to rise naturally without hindrance. The more expensive the oil, the greater the investments in alternatives.

KLS,

The CEO of Shell said the easy oil will be gone in 7 years...

Perhaps, assuming current conditions, but that could change. We could have a lot less and we could have a lot more. One of the big supply problems is government control. Petronas, Petrobras, and Aramco aren't ever going to do things like ConocoPhillips, BP, ExxonMobil, Shell, and ChevTex. As a petroleum geologist once told me, "if we drilled the whole world like we've drilled the United States, we'd have more oil than we'd know what to do with."

I kinda know a key strategic planner from Shell (a couple of interactions, a couple of competitive intelligence classes together, lunch). So, I know that the message has several potential purposes: 1. They really believe it and are trying to nudge people toward other of their offerings2. They are trying to confuse competitors3. They are trying to manipulate regulators4. They are trying to manage expectations of consumers and regulators (its gonna get REAALLL expensive)