The only bad publicity…

RedC out today, and no great movement from the RedC for Paddy Power mid-week (although reportage ignores that poll and gives movement from the last RedC commissioned by SBP), beside an increase in SF at the expense (in net terms, anyway) of FG. It would appear that the publicity SF have attracted in recent days has done them no damage (and may have even helped them) among those considering them for their first preference.

Votes and seat projections as follows;

FG

28%

55

FF

18%

31

SF

20%

30

LB

8%

12

GP

2%

1

AAA/PBP

3%

4

SocDems

4%

5

Renua

1%

0

OTH

16%

20

100%

158

As pointed out yesterday, the chances of significant movement (in net terms) is increasingly unlikely at this stage, and with the outgoing coalition looking at 67 seats (and LP below the ‘magic’ 15), I can’t see it being re-elected. 13 seats would have to come from disparate interests, and while SocDems might be bidable (and they do well in this poll), they would still need another 8 from the 21 in GP/OTH. Given how unstable such a combo would be, I can’t see LP signing up to it, which leaves FG/FF the only option left. Whether they would do this as a formal coalition or with a Tallaght II, I know no more than you do. A ‘temporary arrangement’ for the 1916 centenary year (“in the national interest”) which allowed them co-habit before full marriage might be the outcome.

But we’ll see. Dinner to make and may have wine taken by the time the next polls are out, so may not be back until tomorrow.