Estimating the threat of water scarcity in the Breede River Valley : a forecast-based analysis

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Estimating the threat of water scarcity in the Breede River Valley : a forecast-based analysis

Bester, Stephanie Elizabeth

2011-11

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Water is a scarce resource in South Africa and especially in the Western Cape. It is, therefore, vital to manage it properly. There are a number of factors that make the task of managing water difficult. Climate change is one of these factors. It cannot be controlled and holds much uncertainty. In order to provide information for managers to plan water supply and demand in the in the Breede Water Management Area (WMA) effectively, the objective of this study is to forecast possible high, normal and low water demand and supply scenarios (Chapter 4). Furthermore this study will inform managers on the extent of the threat of the expected water scarcity occurring in the Breede River Valley through the scenarios.
It was seen that all scenarios indicate shortfalls within the forecasting period of 20 years. In the best case scenario, which is already severe, water shortages will occur 12 years from now. In the worst case scenario water shortages will occur within 6 years from now. These results show that planners and developers are afforded a lead time of approximately 6 years to affect the required interventions.
One possible solution involves building dams in the mountain ranges to exploit the catchment areas. The idea is that gravity fed water will be supplied to farmers from these dams – nullifying the necessity to draw irrigation water from the Breede River. It is recommended that further studies must be done to determine the feasibility and the environmental impact of interventions to reduce the expected water scarcity in the Breede River Valley.

Description:

In this study factors that influence the supply and demand of water in the Breede River Valley will be identified. In order to provide information for managers to plan water supply and demand in the in the Breede River Valley effectively, the objective of this study is to forecast possible high, normal and low water demand and supply scenarios. Another objective of this study is to identify possible solutions to the potential water scarcity in the Breede River Valley.