the race in Sturgeon River Parkland has been a sleeper . the media attempted to smear the new cpc candidate although it seems to have had little effect . trudeau visited the riding for reasons unknown ? it doesn't appear the liberals are actually in contention for a rural alberta riding especially in a by election .

it also be interesting to see how the ndp vote does , they did dismal in the other 3 alberta votes , as provincial ndp unpopular but will the new leader boost there numbers a bit ?

the by election in Lac Saint Jean is a bit harder to get a feel for , all 4 parties are trying to claim they have a chance there and past results in 2015 would allow for such a possibility . the conservatives seem to be downplaying the by elections , there is nothing on the main cpc website about them which seemed odd . although there was a post on twitter and scheer sent out a tweet about them

by elections in quebec are funny sometimes , does this riding want someone in government ? do they want a high profile opposition member ? would they go back to the bloc quebecois ? it might depend on how the ndp does , the possibility of a liberal or bloc victory depends largely on the ndp vote dropping and going to another party

Byelections: Tories take Edmonton but behind in Quebec's Lac-Saint-Jean

The Canadian Press
Published Monday, October 23, 2017 9:46PM EDT
Last Updated Monday, October 23, 2017 10:26PM EDT

OTTAWA -- A 26-year-old with a history of making controversial comments in social media is on his way to becoming a member of Parliament, easily hanging onto the Edmonton riding of Sturgeon River-Parkland for the Conservatives.

With 30 of 251 polls reporting, Dane Lloyd has taken a commanding lead with almost 80 per cent of the vote.

The riding is prime Conservative turf, left vacant after Rona Ambrose, former cabinet minister and interim Conservative leader, quit politics to join a Washington-based think tank.

Richard Hebert
Richard Hebert, Liberal candidate for the byelection in the Lac-Saint-Jean riding, right, cheers with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a Liberal party rally in Dolbeau-Mistassini, Que, on Thursday, October 19, 2017. (Francis Vachon/The Canadian Press)

But it's far from certain the Conservatives can hang on in another federal byelection, where a four-way fight is underway.

Early results in Quebec's Lac-Saint-Jean riding, which opened up after long-time Conservative MP and former cabinet minister Denis Lebel retired from politics, show Bloc Quebecois candidate Marc Maltais leading, less than 100 votes ahead of the second place contender, Liberal Richard Hebert.

The Conservatives' Remy Leclerc is running a distant third and the NDP's Gisele Dallaire, who finished a close second behind Lebel in 2015, is running an even-more-distant fourth.

Richard Hebert, Liberal candidate for the byelection in the Lac-Saint-Jean riding, right, cheers with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a Liberal party rally in Dolbeau-Mistassini, Que, on Thursday, October 19, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Francis Vachon

OTTAWA – Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have pulled off a stunning upset, winning a federal byelection in the heartland of Quebec nationalism.

Liberal Richard Hebert has won the riding of Lac-Saint-Jean, a riding held by the Tories since 2007 and once the home base of sovereigntist champion and one-time premier Lucien Bouchard.

The Liberals last won the riding in 1980.

Even in the 2015 election, when Trudeau’s Liberals took a surprising 40 of Quebec’s 78 seats, they posted their worst result in the province – just 18.4 per cent – in Lac-Saint-Jean.

Joan Bryden, The Canadian Press
Published Tuesday, October 24, 2017 7:21AM EDT
Last Updated Tuesday, October 24, 2017 7:32AM EDT

Justin Trudeau's Liberals have pulled off a stunning byelection upset, snatching the federal riding of Lac-Saint-Jean away from the Conservatives.

A Liberal victory in Quebec's nationalist heartland -- where the party hasn't won since 1980 and where it posted its worst result in the province in 2015 -- would have been remarkable at any time.

But it was particularly sweet for the prime minister on Monday, coming at time when his government has been mired for weeks in controversy over small business tax reform proposals, the personal finances and ethics of his finance minister and a new cultural policy that's been especially panned in Quebec.

The Conservatives held onto another long-time Tory riding, however. Dane Lloyd, a 26-year-old with a history of posting controversial views in social media, easily retained the Edmonton riding of Sturgeon River-Parkland with 77 per cent of the vote.

Among other things, Lloyd has referred to women's advocates as "Feminazis" and started a Facebook campaign to create a Canadian chapter of the National Rifle Association. He succeeds Rona Ambrose, the respected former cabinet minister and interim Conservative leader, who quit as the riding's MP last spring to join a Washington-based think-tank.

Lac-Saint-Jean had been held since 2007 by former Conservative minister Denis Lebel until his retirement last spring. Prior to that, it was a Bloc Quebecois stronghold, the home base of sovereigntist champion and Bloc founder Lucien Bouchard who went on to become premier of Quebec.

Richard Hebert, former mayor of Dolbeau-Mistassini, won the riding Monday for the Liberals, taking 38 per cent of the vote -- more than double the party's vote share in 2015. He was some 14 percentage points ahead of the Conservative candidate, who was just slightly ahead of the Bloc contender.

The NDP's Gisele Dallaire, who was a close second behind Lebel in 2015, finished a distant fourth Monday with just 12 per cent of the vote.

Voter turnout in the riding was 41 per cent -- surprisingly high for a byelection and a sign of just how vigorously it was contested. The four main party leaders all campaigned in the riding.

By contrast, turnout in Sturgeon River-Parkland was just 23.7 per cent, more typical for a byelection.

The Quebec win bodes well for the Liberals, who won a surprising 40 of the province's 78 seats in 2015. They are hoping to do even better in the province in the 2019 election to make up for potential losses in suburban Toronto and Vancouver ridings, where they fear newly minted NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh could make gains among new Canadian voters.

As much as Hebert's upset was a coup for Trudeau, it was a blow to Singh and new Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, both of whom were facing their first electoral test.

Scheer lost a crucial seat in a province that is likely to determine the outcome of the next election. He can take some small consolation in hanging onto the Edmonton seat, where his party's share of the vote actually increased by seven points over 2015.

The results arguably bode even worse for Singh. He watched the NDP -- which swept Quebec in 2011 and has been struggling to regain that momentum since Jack Layton's untimely death a few months later -- sink into the role of bystander in Lac-Saint-Jean.

His party's share of the vote in Sturgeon River-Parkland, meanwhile, dropped about three points, as did the Liberals' share.

The fact that Singh is a practising Sikh has also been something of an issue in Quebec, with one poll suggesting one in two Quebecers wouldn't vote for a leader who wears a turban.

Dallaire said she doesn't know how much that factored into Monday's result. She suggested the Liberal victory had more to do with voters' choosing to side with the party in government.

"The belief is you get more when you're on the good side," she told The Canadian Press.

Dallaire conceded that Singh, who was elected leader just a month ago, isn't well known in Quebec.

"There's still a lot of work to do to make sure that people know him more than just for his physical aspect," she said.

For his part, Hebert said the result proves voters believe the government is going in the right direction, regardless of what all the critics may say.

Not entirely sure how this is an upset when this was largely the expected result for weeks.

The CPC held this riding because of the candidate and not because the electorate was overly Conservative. The timing of the by-election also resulted in the Tories not being able to secure their likely preferred candidate, not that I am convinced that would have made a huge difference.

The takeaways from the by-elections are pretty straightforward.

TrudeauMania II in Western Canada appears to be waning as a much less popular CPC candidate secured a level of support in Edmonton that was more in line with 2011 than 2015.

In Quebec;
The NDP is done.

Gisèle Dallaire finished about 5% (with around 28% of the vote)behind Denis Lebel in 2011; This time around Gisèle Dallaire finished 4th with around half the votes the third place BQ secure and only 11.7% of the popular vote.

I would imagine the plan shortly for the NDP will be to pivot hard to Ontario and British Columbia;
Which is about as ideal of a situation as we could have hoped for.

Not entirely sure how this is an upset when this was largely the expected result for weeks.

The CPC held this riding because of the candidate and not because the electorate was overly Conservative. The timing of the by-election also resulted in the Tories not being able to secure their likely preferred candidate, not that I am convinced that would have made a huge difference.

The takeaways from the by-elections are pretty straightforward.

TrudeauMania II in Western Canada appears to be waning as a much less popular CPC candidate secured a level of support in Edmonton that was more in line with 2011 than 2015.

In Quebec;
The NDP is done.

Gisèle Dallaire finished about 5% (with around 28% of the vote)behind Denis Lebel in 2011; This time around Gisèle Dallaire finished 4th with around half the votes the third place BQ secure and only 11.7% of the popular vote.

I would imagine the plan shortly for the NDP will be to pivot hard to Ontario and British Columbia;
Which is about as ideal of a situation as we could have hoped for.

I don't see how the cpc losing the Lac Saint Jean riding was a surprise ? as it was clearly always a Denis Lebel riding and not a tory riding . without him on the ballot it was clearly a challenge to hold onto .

also never really liked the new cpc candidate Remy Leclerc for some reason , the issues he talked about in any of the articles I saw seemed like a waste of time . one tried to claim if he won he'd somehow stop the legalisation of marijuana ? which seems extremely unlikely . they might of done better with someone younger and seen as more appealing but either way it was a tough race .

I don't know where the ndp goes from here ? they have 40 or so seats but even trying to hold half of them with there current level of support is going to be a challenge if things don't improve . they haven't done well in any of the by elections since 2015 election , I think there has been 8 , and best they did was second in Ottawa Vanier .

A triumphant Justin Trudeau contends the Liberals’ stunning byelection victory in Quebec’s nationalist heartland is a vote of confidence in his government’s economic agenda.

Implicit in the prime minister’s assertion is that it’s also a vote of confidence in the man who’s presided over that economic agenda, embattled Finance Minister Bill Morneau.

Opposition parties counter that Monday’s upset Liberal win in Lac-Saint-Jean was more the product of a well-known local candidate — Richard Hebert, the outgoing mayor of Dolbeau-Mistassini — and voters’ belief that their region stands to benefit by siding with the party in power.

But they’re also conceding the result shows their newly minted leaders — Conservative Andrew Scheer, New Democrat Jagmeet Singh and Bloquiste Martine Ouellet — have a lot of work to do to become competitive in the province most likely to determine the outcome of the next federal election in 2019.

The Liberal win in Lac-Saint-Jean couldn’t have come at a better time for the government, on the eve of a crowd-pleasing economic update which it hopes will turn the page on weeks of controversy over Morneau’s proposed small business tax reforms and his own personal finances and ethics.

Speaking shortly before Morneau tabled the update Tuesday, Trudeau argued the victory demonstrates that voters are happy with the Liberal government’s efforts to boost economic growth.

“It’s a real pleasure to be able to see that in rural Quebec, but across the country, Canadians are responding extremely positively to the economic message we’ve put forward and the hard work we’ve done, as we’ll see this afternoon with the fiscal statement,” he said.

“The promise we made to Canadians to put money in the pockets of the middle class, to grow the economy through investing in our communities is actually delivering.”

He boasted that Canada has the fastest growing economy among G7 countries and that his government has created 400,000 new jobs.

In the House of Commons, Trudeau repeatedly referenced the Lac-Saint-Jean result to deflect continued opposition charges that Morneau put himself in a conflict of interest by failing to put his shares in his family’s pension management and human resources company into a blind trust.

“Last night we got an opportunity to hear from Quebecers and people across the country about how we were doing as a country and how we are doing in terms of growing the economy,” he said.

“The priorities that Canadians showed actually demonstrated that we are on the right track.”

Hebert snatched Lac-Saint-Jean away from the Conservatives, winning 38.6 per cent of the vote — the first Liberal victory in the riding in 37 years. His win in the midst of unrelenting mid-mandate controversy for the government bodes well for the Liberals, who snagged 40 of Quebec’s 78 seats in 2015 but need to do even better in 2019 to compensate for expected losses elsewhere.

The Tory candidate came second, 14 points behind Hebert, followed closely by the Bloc Quebecois contender. The NDP candidate, who’d come close to defeating Tory veteran Denis Lebel in 2015, finished a distant fourth Monday with less than 12 per cent.

In a second byelection Monday in traditional Tory turf in Edmonton, the Conservatives scored a predictably massive win in Sturgeon River-Parkland, where Dane Lloyd, a 26-year-old with a history of controversial social media posts, took 77.4 per cent of the vote.

The two byelections were the first electoral tests of leadership for Scheer, Singh and Ouellet.

Ouellet, at least, could take solace in the fact that her party increased its vote share by five percentage points in Lac-Saint-Jean, even if it could not win back a riding that encompasses the home bases of two previous Bloc leaders: Lucien Bouchard and Michel Gauthier.

The same could not be said for Scheer and Singh.

Scheer, a Saskatchewan MP who eked out a win over Quebecer Maxime Bernier in the Conservative leadership race last spring, left it to analysts to determine why his party lost the seat Lebel had held since 2007. He issued a statement Tuesday congratulating Lloyd on his Edmonton victory, without even mentioning the Quebec byelection.

However, one of his Quebec MPs, Alupa Clarke, acknowledged that Scheer is not well known in the province.

“It would be difficult to argue that he’s more known than Trudeau,” Clarke conceded.

“But Mr. Scheer is an excellent leader … and for the next months and the next two years, we’ll do everything we can to make sure Quebecers meet him.”

He attributed the Liberal victory to people voting “for the person they know most” and their tendency to support the party in power.

For his part, Singh issued a statement saying he’s “excited” about the opportunity to build NDP support, despite the byelection results that “were not in our favour.”

The NDP has been struggling to regain the momentum it experienced under the late Jack Layton in 2011, when a so-called orange wave in Quebec vaulted the party into official Opposition status for the first time. The party lost most of those historic gains to the Liberals in the 2015 election.

One of the NDP’s Quebec MPs, Pierre Nantel, made waves during the leadership race with the suggestion he and other Quebec New Democrats might prefer to sit as independents if any of the non-Quebec candidates were to take the helm of the party. He also suggested that Singh, a practicing Sikh who wears a turban, was not in line with Quebecers’ views about secularism.

But Alexandre Boulerice, another Quebec NDP MP, said Tuesday that Singh can’t be blamed for Monday’s outcome, which he called “really disappointing.” He noted that Singh only took the helm a month ago, in the midst of the byelection campaign.

“For us, it means that we have to work harder in the next 24 months to regain the confidence of citizens,” Boulerice said, conceding that Singh is “not well known” and the party “will have to work on that.”

He said Singh’s turban will be an issue for “a minority” of people in Quebec and elsewhere across the country but he expressed confidence that will become less relevant as Singh begins staking out his election platform.

While most attention focused on the Quebec upset, the Liberals also needled the Tories over their new Edmonton MP’s controversial social media postings, in which he once referred to women’s rights advocates as “feminazis” and tried to create a Canadian chapter of the National Rifle Association, among other things.

In response to a planted Liberal question, Status of Women Minister Maryam Monsef told the Commons that “when members across the aisle label our daughters as feminazis, as Barbies, it sets us all back.”

Calgary Conservative MP Michelle Rempel challenged the government to tackle real issues facing women — “like correcting the sham of the missing and murdered indigenous women (inquiry)” — rather than arguing about which party is “more sexist.”

Outside the Commons, Rempel said she’s “looking forward to seeing what (Lloyd) does when he comes to Ottawa,” noting that he’ll find he’s joining a caucus with plenty of strong women and a track record of defending women’s rights.

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