Saturday, April 2, 2016

Week 1 Predictions (and Caleb's favorite betting lines)

NASL week one betting lines are finally being posted by linemakers across the globe, and as promised on the first episode of the Bloody Shambles Preview Show, here are our result predictions, as well my personal favorite betting lines of the week.

Favorite Lines:

Minnesota United - Draw No Bet (-150): There's a lot of hype surrounding United within NASL fan circles this season, but the lines on this game show that the oddsmakers think the Railhawks will give them all they can handle. Consider me having bought the hype. I don't see Minnesota losing the opener, so I like the risk reduction in this spot -- but the Minnesota moneyline at +123 is also tempting. The payout value isn't superb, but I also think Both Teams to Score (-180) would be a fairly safe bet.Tampa Bay Rowdies / Indy Eleven Under 2.5 (-125): Gave my thoughts on this one in the show, and I'll stand by everything I said. Tampa has a tremendous attack and will likely dominate possession, but Indy's defense and goalkeeping will be good enough to keep the Rowdies from finding the net more than once. It won't be pretty, but a pragmatic Indy will keep the game close. There may also be value in the draw here (+247), especially when you consider past results between these two teams (four draws in six matches, Indy has never lost at Al Lang). If you haven't already, be sure to check out James's in-depth look at this matchup.Fort Lauderdale Strikers to win (-110): Also as mentioned in the pod, there are a wide range of opinions on both the Strikers and Miami, but I like the value of a team that has made the playoffs each in the last two seasons starting the season at home against an expansion side. I don't doubt that Miami will be a premier team in this league eventually, but the Strikers have a very talented, very experienced midfield that will run this game. I also like the Under 2.5(-127).Worth a look:FC Edmonton +.5 (-105): For all of the Rayo OKC doubters out there, here's a chance to vote with your wallet. I personally wouldn't touch this, but there's certainly something to say for the value of a line where a draw or Edmonton win (against a team who has never played a competitive game together) would pay out.New York Cosmos to win (-156): Alternatively, take a look at the Asian Handicap line when it gets released. Based on the moneyline, I would expect a -1 handicap line to fall right around -105. AH would be the play for anyone looking to maximize payout.

Predictions:

We will be tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game. Whichever one of us who finishes in last place at the end of the season will be (publicly) hit with a pie (flavor of their choosing).

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview Show. Don't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook. James and Aaron can also be found on Twitter:Aaron GunyonJames Cormack