Tuesday, December 17, 2013

NFL 2013: Week 15 Review

Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80
on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being
the best score = 16x5 = 80).

OFFENSE

DEFENSE

TOTAL
TEAM

Blended

Wins

Rating

Rank

Rating

Rank

Rating

Rank

SOS

TOM

12

SEA

47.5

4

48.9

1

96.4

1

31

16

10

CAR

46.8

7

46.1

3

93.0

2

30

11

11

DEN

54.0

1

38.6

17

92.6

3

25

(3)

10

NO

47.5

4

42.9

8

90.4

4

24

0

9

CIN

42.8

14

46.0

4

88.8

5

20

(1)

7

DET

45.8

9

42.6

11

88.4

6

16

(13)

11

KC

44.6

10

43.0

7

87.7

7

32

21

10

SF

40.9

18

46.3

2

87.2

8

8

8

9

ARI

41.0

17

43.5

6

84.5

9

14

4

8

CHI

51.6

2

32.3

28

83.9

10

26

6

7

SD

51.3

3

32.4

27

83.6

11

18

(2)

8

PHI

47.1

6

34.8

25

81.9

12

29

9

6

PIT

40.2

20

40.7

13

80.9

13

23

(4)

3

WAS

43.7

11

36.9

21

80.6

14

11

(9)

7

GB

46.6

8

33.8

26

80.5

15

28

(3)

10

NE

43.3

12

36.9

20

80.2

16

22

4

2

HOU

37.3

23

42.8

9

80.1

17

18

(15)

5

BUF

36.0

26

42.6

12

78.6

18

27

1

5

TEN

40.2

19

37.6

18

77.8

19

6

(3)

9

IND

41.5

15

35.6

23

77.1

20

10

7

8

BAL

31.8

29

45.2

5

77.0

21

15

(2)

8

MIA

37.1

24

39.7

15

76.8

22

13

2

4

CLE

35.4

27

40.1

14

75.5

23

9

(6)

6

STL

39.3

22

35.4

24

74.7

24

3

9

6

NYJ

30.8

31

42.8

9

73.5

25

19

(19)

4

OAK

36.9

25

36.3

22

73.2

26

21

(8)

7

DAL

42.9

13

29.4

32

72.3

27

12

11

4

MIN

41.5

15

30.1

30

71.5

28

4

(7)

5

NYG

31.6

30

39.4

16

71.1

29

2

(17)

4

TB

33.0

28

37.1

19

70.1

30

1

11

4

ATL

39.5

21

29.8

31

69.3

31

5

(4)

4

JAC

27.9

32

30.7

29

58.6

32

8

(4)

Seattle has maintained the top spot over the last three
weeks despite seeing their rating fall 0.7 points.We have really seen a big drop in ratings
towards the top as there are only 4 teams that have posted an average grade
above 88.8 on the season!This week
let’s examine some interesting stats/metrics about each currently projected AFC
playoff team (next week we will examine the NFC):

#1 Denver:
the Broncos defense has really fallen on hard times posting a mark better than
their opponent’s offense just twice since their Week 9 bye (top defensive grade
is just 43 over their last 6 games), with an average grade of just 33.5 – that
mark would be around 27th in the NFL based on full year grades. Some of that has been driven by injuries (S
Rahim Moore, CB Champ Bailey, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, LB Wesley
Woodyard, DT Derek Wolfe, DT Kevin Vickerson), but a lot of it has been simply
put poor performance against some of the better teams on their schedule.

#2 New England:
the loss of Rob Gronkowski really hurts this team, especially considering all
the additional injuries this team has faced on the outside, and
defensively.New England rates just 16th
in the NFL according to my performance ratings including a defense checking in
at #20.Like the Broncos the Patriots
defense is not playing well, checking in with an average grade of 29.3 over
their last 6 games – that mark would be worst in the NFL (yes, even worse than
Dallas) if based on full year grades!Considering a potential matchup in Denver for the AFC Championship, it
seems New England will really have its hands full to reach Met Life Stadium.

#3 Cincinnati:
like the Broncos & Patriots above them the Bengals lost on Sunday, and have
holes themselves especially if they earned the #3 seed instead of the #2.The Bengals are outscoring their opponents by
16.0ppg at home, but are being outscored by 2.0ppg in road contests.If they were to stick in the 3 spot they
would likely host Baltimore, Miami or San Diego in their opening Wild Card
contest, but would then go to New England with a win – and face a Patriots team
who would be seeking revenge from a beat down in Cincy earlier this
season.It really seems like the Bengals
will once again struggle to get past the Divisional Round unless they can
secure the #2 seed as this is the rare AFC team that has graded well
defensively most of the season.

#4 Indianapolis:
like themselves last year and New England this year, the Colts are not grading
out well in the performance ratings as they check in at just #20.Before last week’s win over Houston they were
outplayed in my performance ratings in 6 straight games following their bye
week, and like some of the squads above them defense has been the major issue
as they scored just a 25.6 average defensive grade over those 6 contests!Wow.Considering the Colts will be without WR Reggie Wayne, it’s hard to see
how the Colts would be able to string together multiple wins in the playoffs.

#5 Kansas City:
outside a pair of losses to Denver the Chiefs have arguably been the best team
in the AFC this season – but how much of their success is supported by a +21
TOM?It’s hard to assume a TOM would
remain that robust in the playoffs versus the best teams in the conference,
while also facing those teams in their stadiums.That being said, the Chiefs are the 2nd
best road team in the NFL this season both on a standalone rating and SOS
adjusted basis, outscoring their opponents by an NFL best 15.0ppg.Kansas City could be the most dangerous team
in the AFC, especially when it comes to the chances any of these teams has at
beating Denver in the Mile High City.

#6
Baltimore/Miami/San Diego: we will touch on these squads as this
process plays out, but we can see from above SD is rated highest according to
my performance ratings, even when adjusting for SOS.With Baltimore hosting New England, and Miami
travelling to Buffalo coming off their huge win over New England last week, SD
may get revenge on Oakland and be in the driver’s seat come Week 17.

Next let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to
see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape:

Rating

NFL

NW

42

1

AW

47

2

NN

59

3

AN

62

4

NS

67

5

AE

81

6

NE

82

7

AS

88

8

Not much of a change over the last two weeks; only the AFC
East and NFC East have flip-flopped spots.

Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk15.As a reminder, this process involves playing
out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team.For more information on this topic and
process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read
this blog entry from July 31, 2012.

AFC East

Wins

Loss

NFC East

Wins

Loss

NE

11.17

4.83

PHI

9.02

6.98

MIA

9.13

6.87

DAL

7.78

8.22

NYJ

6.85

9.16

NYG

5.75

10.26

BUF

5.86

10.14

WAS

4.20

11.80

AFC North

NFC North

CIN

10.52

5.48

CHI

9.16

6.84

BAL

8.74

7.26

DET

8.38

7.62

PIT

7.12

8.88

GB

8.34

7.66

CLE

4.87

11.13

MIN

5.12

10.88

AFC South

NFC South

IND

10.18

5.82

NO

11.29

4.71

TEN

6.26

9.74

CAR

11.29

4.71

JAC

4.42

11.58

TB

4.67

11.33

HOU

2.79

13.21

ATL

4.43

11.57

AFC West

NFC West

DEN

12.45

3.55

SEA

13.56

2.44

KC

12.16

3.84

SF

11.31

4.69

SD

8.21

7.79

ARI

9.75

6.25

OAK

4.53

11.47

STL

6.71

9.29

Playoffs

Playoffs

#6 MIA @ #3 CIN

#6 NO @ #3 PHI

#5 KC @ #4 IND

#5 SF @ #4 CHI

#1 DEN

#1 SEA

#2 NE

#2 CAR

In this week’s projected playoff field I have given the #2
seed in the NFC to Carolina over New Orleans considering those two teams play
this week in Carolina.The only real
open spots are the #6 seed in the AFC & the NFC East divisional
winner.We may see Wk17 decide both of
those playoff spots with Baltimore @ Cincinnati, Kansas City @ San Diego, NY
Jets @ Miami deciding the AFC spot and Philadelphia @ Dallas deciding the NFC
East winner.More to come on these spots
in the next 2 weeks.

Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like
the standings above) is my power rankings.My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team
performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry);
two measures team performance vs. the spread.These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power
rankings.For my blog I will only
provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my
eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential
model plays:

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The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.