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There was some good news at the Kremlin today, with economy minister Alexei Ulyukayev reporting that Russia’s GDP grew by 1.2% in the second quarter, up from 0.9% in the previous quarter. As a result, the ministry might upgrade its growth forecast for the year, he said, according to the transcript of a meeting with president Vladimir Putin.

Outside the country, however, others aren’t so upbeat. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said last week that the Russian economy will grow by only 0.2% this year, with weakness stemming from soft oil prices and the squeeze of Western sanctions. On a recent call between US president Barack Obama and German chancellor Angela Merkel, the leaders hinted that sanctions could get tougher amid a spike in violence in eastern Ukraine.

The other specter haunting the Russian economy is stagflation, which we have covered before. Russia recently recorded its highest inflation rate in three years—7.8% in June—despite its stalled-out economy. The IMF expects average inflation this year to fall a bit, to 6.6%, but this won’t do much to help the situation:

If things continue like this—the IMF warns of “considerable downside risks” to its already grim forecast—Ulyukayev’s next meeting with Putin could be a lot more uncomfortable. Not that Russia’s faltering economy has done much to dent Putin’s popularity. At least, not yet.