Even if he is not a clear-cut No. 2, Henderson is undeniably still
one of the best lightweights in the world. If Thomson can defeat
the toothpick-wielding former champ in the
UFC on Fox 10 headliner on Saturday at the United Center in
Chicago, his spot as the division’s No. 1 contender figures to be
further legitimized.

Here is a closer look at the UFC on Fox 10 card, with analysis and
picks:

Lightweights

The Matchup: By becoming the first man to finish
the ultra-durable Nate Diaz at
UFC on Fox 7, Thomson thought he had earned himself a shot at newly
minted lightweight champion Pettis in December. Unfortunately,
lingering knee issues will keep Pettis on the shelf for at least
the first half of 2014, so instead Thomson gets Henderson, who
relinquished the 155-pound strap to “Showtime” at UFC 164.

It was jarring to see Henderson -- who is known for his flexibility
and once survived nine submission attempts against Donald
Cerrone in their WEC 43 classic -- tap to an armbar, but it is
also important to remember that Pettis has a very crafty guard and
had softened Henderson with a series of brutal body kicks before
the submission.

Pettis was by far the most kick-centric opponent Henderson had
faced in the Octagon, but now he meets another foe who is reliant
on a number of kicking techniques. Thomson eschewed the use of his
hands almost entirely in the early going against Diaz, instead
electing to attack the Stockton, Calif., native with kicks to the
legs while constantly moving and switching stances.

Eventually, Thomson was able to find a home for a head kick in the
first round and repeated the feat more emphatically in the second
frame, where his shin connected with Diaz’s head to end the
bout.

Thomson’s blend of footwork, movement and various kicks provides an
interesting challenge for Henderson, a fighter whose standup is
also primarily kick-based. Thomson clearly adopted a smart game
plan based on movement to avoid prolonged exchanges with Diaz.
Henderson, a southpaw, is different because his brand of pressure
includes imposing his will in the clinch and on the mat. At his
best, few foes can match the relentless pace of the MMA Lab
product, and his ability to scramble out of danger and into
dominant positions should prove useful against Thomson’s underrated
wrestling.

Expect Thomson to rely on his jab more than he did against Diaz, in
part because Henderson is vulnerable to counters when throwing his
preferred kicks to the legs and body. Additionally, “Smooth” tends
to get a little wild with his hands during exchanges, which could
prove dangerous against Thomson’s precise kickboxing.

Henderson’s upper-body strength and athleticism will make it
difficult for Thomson to mount much offense in tie-ups against the
fence. Any significant amount of time spent in the clinch and
defending takedowns is going to be draining for Thomson. He would
be better served to keep Henderson at a distance using his arsenal
of kicks -- his teep could prove particularly useful at range. As
solid as Thomson is on the ground, it is difficult to imagine him
getting the nod from the judges if the majority of the fight takes
place there. However, his ability to set up multiple kicks will
make things interesting, particularly given Pettis’ success landing
to the body against Henderson at UFC 164.

The Pick: This has the look of another Henderson
nail-biter. Thomson has the tools to test the former champion, but
in the end, Henderson’s relentless pace will make the difference.
“Smooth” wins by decision.