How is the Sox' chances so much lower than the Twins in the division when we're only half a game out and 20 runs better in RD?

Vienna

08-12-2008, 06:25 PM

How is the Sox' chances so much lower than the Twins in the division when we're only half a game out and 20 runs better in RD?

It's based on computer projections...similar to the Accuscore element on ESPN's preview for each ballgame. The articles have more on the weighting and the numbers -- past performance is another factor. For most of July, Boston had a higher percent chance of making the playoffs than Tampa, yet the Carmines were a few games back.

So, I'm guessing the question marks in the Sox rotation, the bullpen performance, both teams' remaining schedules, and the number of times the Twins have won the division in the past factors in to it. Also, a month ago the Sox run differential was about +80 and the Twinks were about +15. So that trend can't help the computer projections.

Again, this is to make the playoffs. We know what happens to the Twins once they're there.