Now we await the state elections, which will take place on April 26. If the PDP loses a lot of governors’ seats (currently 26 out of 36 states have PDP governors), then we can confidently say that Jonathan will preside over a political scene dramatically changed from the one he inherited from the late President Umaru Yar’Adua in 2010.

In some ways, the political scene is changing even before the elections end. New media, youth activism, popular calls for transparency, and electoral reforms have made this election much different than the vote in 2007. “Politics from below” may prove more important than analysts have thought – though many people, in Nigeria and internationally, remain deeply cynical about Nigerian politics, a cynicism that has only deepened with Jonathan’s likely victory.

In Kano, the largest city in in the north, homes displaying posters of Mr Jonathan were set on fire, and gangs of young men roamed the streets shouting “Only Buhari!”

In Kaduna, where a 24-hour curfew has been declared, youths clashed with the police and military in areas to the north and south of the city, with the security forces firing tear gas and live ammunition.

Local TV stations reported that the Kaduna home of Mr Jonathan’s running mate, Vice-President Namadi Sambo, was set on fire. They said the city’s central prison was attacked and inmates released.

Many Northerners are angry that an informal power-sharing system between the North and the South was disrupted by the death of President Umaru Yar’Adua (a Northerner) and the ascension of Jonathan (a Southerner). Many supporters of General Muhammadu Buhari say that Buhari has been repeatedly cheated of his rightful victories (including against Yar’Adua). Jonathan reached out to the North during the campaign, but that outreach did not heal all of the wounds that remained from flawed elections in the past. Jonathan will clearly face some challenges in building legitimacy in the North. I will update as more news comes in. Let us know your thoughts in the comments.

Nigeria’s 2011 national assembly and presidential elections “represent a step forward from seriously flawed elections of the past,” the National Democratic Institute, or NDI, said Monday.

The NDI, which has a delegation of elections observers in the country, said in a statement that the polls held on April 9 and 16 respectively, also “hold the promise of setting new standard for integrity in Nigeria’s electoral process.”