Published 4:00 am, Thursday, September 13, 2001

The word for West Coast waterfowlers is that their coming season offers a chance to rise to a few challenges that go past muddy boots and cold hands.

Bag limits and season dates mostly will stay the same as last year -- with slight variations. Yet, numbers for many bird species using the Pacific Flyway are down from the high counts of the recent past. Drought conditions in northern nesting areas are blamed.

In addition, water shortages in the northeast part of California mean the early season here will open on sites where conditions are far from ideal.

However, as hunters found last season, weather is always a huge variable affecting field success, regardless of bird numbers. An ideal duck day is gray,

cool and stormy. Last season, a plague of mild, "bluebird" days reduced bags by a fifth from the 1999-2000 season, despite the fact that birds were plentiful then. If weather cooperates this season, hunters still might do well at selected sites, especially in the Central Valley.

"Since the Klamath region will be marginal, we speculate that a larger number of waterfowl than normal will stage briefly up there, then enter the Central Valley early in the season," said Ron Stromstad, western regional director for the conservation group, Ducks Unlimited. "A duck-club manager in the Butte Sink told me they've got more ducks than ever before for this time of year."

Oddly, the Sacramento Complex of federal refuges reports the opposite. An early count there recorded 125,000 ducks, half the area's typical count. However, this count was undertaken a week early, and one week at the start of migration might make a huge difference.

Stromstad said limited water in the Central Valley could mean fewer flooded rice fields. Should that occur, hunters would be well advised to regularly check the California Department of Fish and Game's (CDFG) Web site (www.dfg.ca. gov/shoot/shoot.html) in order to find areas with high hunter success. A useful strategy might be to track several target sites, keep an eye on the weather, and remain flexible about when and where to go.

Another tactic waterfowlers can use to fill their game straps is to plan an out-of-state hunt along the Central and Mississippi flyways. The drought conditions, resembling those in the early 1980s, primarily have hit the pothole region of Alberta and western Saskatchewan -- areas that feed migratory birds onto the Pacific Flyway. However, the migratory corridors mid- continent are fed by eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. These areas escaped the drought, and so enjoyed prolific nesting. East Coast refuges likely also will see heavy avian traffic.

The most care should be used to plan hunts in the northeast portion of California. Paul Wertz, information officer for CDFG in Redding, says north state hunting areas that will have trouble "watering up" to attract birds include Butte Valley Wildlife Area (north of Mount Shasta), Shasta Valley Wildlife Area and Honey Lake Wildlife Area (near the Nevada border). Ash Creek and Willow Creek wildlife areas are expected to be in relatively good shape. Stromsted said a deal has been reached to provide some minimal emergency water from private sources to the federal Klamath refuge.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service annual survey of breeding ducks reported a 14 percent decline among all species this summer in the nesting areas studied. The count, of 36.1 million birds, is still 9 percent more than the 1955-2000 average. Mid-continent mallards, used as the primary indicator species, reached 7.9 million birds, close to their long-term average. Canvasbacks dipped from 520,000 breeders to 395,000, which accounts for the reduced number of days when "cannies" can be taken under this season's rules. Scaup, green-winged teal and gadwall were all down in the counts.

An astonishing ray of hope is that Northern pintail were up 13 percent, though they still have not risen all the way back to that species' long-term average. Also, there's no particular guarantee that the surge in sprig will show up on the Pacific Flyway.

"Pintail pairing occurs on the wintering grounds," said Bob Trost, flyway coordinator for USFWS in Portland. "Then, they go north and look for suitable nesting habitat. This year, that was in Manitoba and the Dakotas. Which flyway they choose to take in fall as they leave is anyone's guess. They mix up pretty well, as far as we can tell."

The bottom line, according to Stromstad: "Find a watered-up refuge or club, and you should do pretty well. Of course, there's the usual caveat: The weather gods have to cooperate."

Waterfowl regulations

DUCK RULES

-- BAG LIMITS: Seven ducks per day, including a maximum of: two mallard hens (or two Mexican ducks in Colorado River Zone); one pintail (either sex); two redheads (either sex); four scaup; one canvasback (either sex, during 38- day season).

GOOSE RULES

-- -- BAG LIMITS: Northeast Zone, Southern San Joaquin and balance of the state: three geese per day, which may include three white geese, two dark geese, with no more than one small Canada goose (or one Aleutian Canada goose).

Southern California and Colorado River zones, five geese per day, with a maximum of either three white or three dark.