Thursday, May 24, 2012

Ah yes folks, my favorite sport is approaching quickly – actually exactly 99 days before the season kicks off – and I absolutely love doing my prep work for college football.I typically start this process in early May, and it lasts till we kick-off in early September – it’s not all I do, I do plenty of work on the NFL, as well as continuing to work hard on the active sports like NBA and NHL – but I spend a ton of time reading team previews from multiple sites, taking notes, visiting team message boards, etc…really using every single avenue of information I can to feel comfortable with all 120+ teams that plays in the FBS.There is a reason that I consistently year after year absolutely hammer college football – and it’s because I put in the time and work before the season starts to be more prepared than our friends in the desert.

This offseason I am going to do something new – I am going to post entries here to the blog summarizing teams following my initial review of their prospects for the upcoming season.I do not know how many teams I will be posting here, or how much time I will have when we really get deeper into the summer and there is more and more work to do combined with less and less time.But for now, since I have some time, I will post about some of the teams I have studied to date – with more to come in the following weeks and months.

The breakdown will be as follows:

·State of the Program (SOP)

·Strongest unit

·Biggest area of concern

·Upside

·Downside

·Bottom Line

Michigan: in the interest of full disclosure, I am a big Michigan fan

SOP: I am not so sure this team last year was as good as their 11-2 record indicated.Denard Robinson is back hoping to finally at least reach the Heisman Trophy ceremony, while the defense returns a lot of pieces especially in the back seven to make a definite push towards a Big Ten title in a down year across the conference.

Strongest unit: backfield, including the aforementioned QB Robinson, starting RB Touissant, and the depth behind both players including QBs Gardner & Bellomy, and RBs Smith, Rawls & Hayes.This group should be near the top of America in rushing, and DR has a chance at winning the Heisman – especially if he can pull off a win over Alabama in the opener.

Biggest area of concern: both lines have holes to plug, but its Michigan and they have the talent and size to fill those needs in short time.I see the WR position, which was a strength last season, as the big question mark this year.

Upside: a Big Ten Title.I think it’s just too much to ask to win the National Title just yet as the schedule features a neutral field game vs. Alabama, and roadies at ND, Nebraska and Ohio State is just a lot to overcome for a team that will not be as balanced offensively as they hope to be one day in the very near future.

Downside: 8-4, missing the Big Ten title game for the second straight year, and losing to Notre Dame, Michigan State & Ohio State – their three chief rivals.

Bottom Line: it’s all there for the taking in 2012 – the Big Ten title that is.Wisconsin isn’t on the schedule, Michigan State is rebuilding after the loss of Cousins, Ohio State will not be eligible for a Big Ten title this season due to NCAA sanctions – so its title or bust for the boys in Ann Arbor.Their opener with Alabama comes at a decent time – if there ever is a decent time to play Alabama – as the Tide will be working a lot of new pieces into their defense, and they will be raw and untested obviously in the opener.If they somehow won that game, a national title special season could be in the cards as they would certainly have more wiggle room – even possibly being able to absorb a loss somewhere along the way and still get into the mix purely based off that big opening win.

LSU

SOP: 2011 was a good year, which had the potential to be one of the best of all time had the Tigers found a way to win the National Title game over Alabama.But alas, that did not happen after a brutal offensive performance, but do not fret too much for LSU – they will be in the mix once again in 2012.

Strongest unit: in the trenches on both sides of the ball.There isn’t a better position on the field to have your strongest area than the offensive and defensive lines, and that is just what LSU has.Their offensive line will probably be the best in the country, while their defensive line will be in the mix as best in the country.

Biggest area of concern: QB.Once again, seemingly the only area holding LSU back from potentially being a dynasty in college football in that position.The OL and RBs are in place to crank out 2k+ yards rushing, but balance will be needed to achieve their lofty goals – as they learned the hard way in the BCS Championship Game last season.This year former Georgia Bulldog and blue chip recruit Zach Mettenberger will be taking over the position – he has much more passing skills than Jordan Jefferson, but he also didn’t exactly light it up earlier in his career at UGA.

Upside: Undefeated season & National Title.With all the talent at LSU, literally having amongst the best units in the country at OL, RB, DL, DB, ST – the only goal is winning it all, and that could be a real possibility with only four road games, of which they likely will be favored in.

Downside: the new QB doesn’t blossom into the passer the Tigers hope, and the overall grind of an SEC schedule wears them down to the neighborhood of 9-3 without an SEC West title.Could happen, after all this is the best division in the best conference in college football – but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Bottom Line: once again LSU enters a season as a national title contender.After falling just short last year, and with little turnover besides the big one at QB, I certainly feel LSU will at worst still be alive for the whole ball of wax come their November 3rd meeting in Death Valley vs. Alabama.

Virginia

SOP: Mike London has certainly done a good job, not great however, at putting Virginia back on the map as far as college football goes.That isn’t an easy accomplishment by itself, clearly playing second fiddle in their own state to big brother Virginia Tech, whom they have lost 8 straight to.However, coming off an 8-5 campaign and with a team facing a lot of turnover in the trenches and the secondary, can he keep the boat afloat this season before possibly challenging for an ACC title in 2013?

Strongest unit: running game.Led by RB Perry Jones and bookend tackles Aboushi & Moses, the rushing attack should be in fine hands.There is also a lot of depth at RB led by Parks, Richardson and Shepherd, and overall the OL should be one of the stronger units in the ACC so long as the two new pieces in the interior do a decent job at replacing the two all-stars that graduated – they certainly have the size across the board.

Biggest area of concern: defense sans the LB position.UVA has to replace 3 DL and 3 DBs this coming season, which clearly will not be an easy task.There are at least some upper classmen that will be in the rotation up front, but the defensive backs are very green with not one Sr. likely to garner playing time.Matter of fact, of the 12 defensive backs on the depth chart, 10 are either freshmen or sophomores.

Upside: bowl game.There is just too much turnover on defense to expect a challenge by UVA for even the Coastal division of the ACC.And with FBS OOC games hosting Penn State, @ TCU, and hosting LA Tech, along with road conference games at Georgia Tech, NC State and Virginia Tech, reaching 6 wins would be a good season for the Hoos.

Downside: 3-9.It’s a tough slate in 2012, with really no sure fire wins – even Richmond is a strong FCS club that will be an in-state battle.The ACC overall should be up some this year, and UVA could potentially struggle early and often this coming season.

Bottom Line: London is doing a good job down in Charlottesville, but this year may be that old saying of taking a step back for possibly two steps forward in the future.A lot of young guys will get broken in, and Jr. QB Rocco can get even more familiar with the offense during his second season in charge for hopes of potentially making a Coastal or even ACC Title run in 2013 if all goes according to plan.This season is just about keeping the momentum going and not falling completely off the map.

Baylor

SOP: LWORG3.Or, “Life Without Robert Griffin III” begins in 2012 – and how will that life be for a Baylor program that has grown leaps and bounds over the last few season under reigning Heisman Trophy winning QB RG3?There are still a ton of weapons offensively that will put up big numbers and be successful in Art Briles system – as long as the new QB, Nick Florence, can perform and not make too many mistakes.But there are massive question marks on defense – a unit that was not very good last year and will struggle to even be that strong in 2012.

Strongest unit: offensive weapons.To help breaking in the new QB, Briles has a stable of weapons chomping at the bit to get their shot led by WRs Terrence Williams & Tevin Reese, along with RBs Lache Seastrunk & Jarred Salubi.Williams is a first round talent, Reese is a big play waiting to happen, Seastrunk is an Oregon transfer who could turn into the most exciting player in the Big 12, while Salubi is the workhorse back.If Florence can play well, the offense will remain near the top of the conference.

Biggest area of concern: defense.On the flip side of the great offense is a poor defense.There really is no other way to put it – they do not have an anchor at any level, and the front 7 is of particular concern.Good thing for them is they reside in the Big 12 where there are more passing offenses than rushing ones, but expect similar results from last year when the Bears allowed 37+ ppg.

Upside: 8-4.The OOC portion of the schedule is manageable and in most cases they will go 3-1 there.Since this is the “upside” projection there is no reason they couldn’t go 4-0 at home in Big 12 play, and win @ Iowa State for their 8th overall win.

Downside: missing a bowl game invite.Three of their four road games in Big 12 play are tough, while home dates with Kansas State and Oklahoma State will not be easy.If they do not get any breaks a 2-6 Big 12 season could be in the cards with wins over Kansas and Texas Tech at home.

Bottom Line: this is a year of transition for Baylor in some ways, but to be honest I am not sure 2013 looks any better than 2012.Florence is a Sr. and this is his moment to shine, while the offense could certainly lose a few skill position pieces after the ’12 campaign.I feel strongly this is a critical year for Baylor to build off the success of the past few years because if they do not, things could start trending downhill very fast.

California

SOP: the seat is officially hot for Jeff Tedford as a 36-28 record since 2007 in Berkeley including six straight years of a fourth place or worse finish in the Pac 12 is just not gonna cut it anymore – especially with the way rival Stanford has taken off recently.Quite frankly, this may be his last season as the head man in Berkeley as I just do not see many things going well enough for them to challenge in the Pac 12 North – and in reality they probably need to win that this year for him to keep his job, unless rookie QB Zach Kline plays and looks like a franchise QB.

Strongest unit: secondary.All 4 starters are back from a unit that was slightly erratic in 2011, but overall solid ranking 2nd in the Pac 12 in opponents completion %, and third in yards per pass attempt.The Bears play a lot of press man to man coverage, and with the team losing its two best pass rushers, the last line of defense will need to be stout – and should be just that.

Biggest area of concern: QB.Zach Maynard failed to reach the expectations of Jeff Tedford and Company in his first year on the left coast, and will need to significantly improve in 2012 for Cal to accomplish even just receiving a bowl invite.I am not bullish on him succeeding one bit, and would not be surprised if Tedford went to rookie Zach Kline by early in the Pac 12 slate.Kline has a world of potential and was one of the top QB recruits last year.

Upside: bowl game invite.Yeah, that’s it for upside in my opinion.I just do not like Maynard, and even if Cal went to Kline, he is a wet behind the ears rookie who will no question struggle in his first go around.With brutal road trips to Ohio State and USC before September even expires, I see Kline seeing action by early October when the schedule does ease up some.

Downside: 2-10.If this did happen Tedford may not even make it through the season.In a worst case scenario, which this is, I could see Cal only beating Southern Utah and Arizona State.

Bottom Line: Maynard better play well from the get go, even with those road trips vs. top ten type team in September or Kline will get the call.That may not be a bad thing because the Golden Bears aren’t going to accomplish anything of note with ZM under center.Let the kid play early, and reap the benefits later.

Indiana

SOP: year one didn’t go so well for new HC Kevin Wilson – frankly, that didn’t surprise me one bit as I did not understand basically everyone who writes about college football saying how great a hire it was.Then again, when is the last time you read anywhere about a hire being a bad move – not often.But reality hit Mr. Wilson like a ton of bricks to the grill as the Hoosiers weren’t able to muster one win vs. FBS competition – and quite frankly this year doesn’t seem to be a whole lot better, although I do expect at least a couple wins, and think they could be moderately profitable ATS wise.

Strongest unit: PK Mitch Ewald.Sadly, that is true.Ewald is a diamond in the rough at Indiana, connecting on 29 of 35 FG attempts over the last two years.Setting aside special teams, RB has the potential to be a strong suit as the best offensive player on the team is Stephen Houston who managed to rush for over 800 yards on a team that couldn’t block or do much else right on offense.Wasn’t Kevin Wilson suppose to be an offensive guru?

Biggest area of concern: quite frankly there are quite a few options that you could put here and not get an argument, but I will single out both lines – this team year after year is not tough enough up front, especially in the rugged Big Ten to truly put together any sort of challenge.There is plenty of experience returning to both lines, and actually some decent size, but talent continues to be a question mark – and pass blocking and pass rushing remain huge issues that are unlikely to be solved in 2012.

Upside: 4-8.Yeah, that is about the best possible scenario for the Hoosiers this coming season, winning their first three games of the year and pulling off an upset in Big Ten play, or at Navy.

Downside: another 0-fer the FBS.With the easiest games appearing to be home vs. Ball State (whom they lost to last year), and @ Navy – there could seriously be the chance Indiana goes back to back seasons without one win over an FBS opponent – forget about winning a Big Ten game.From a pure odds perspective I doubt that happens again.

Bottom Line: this still has all the look of the worst team in the Big Ten, and possibly by a decent margin – even in a rebuilding Big Ten.

Texas A&M

SOP: Mike Sherman is out, Kevin Sumlin – the offensive guru from Houston – is in; the Big 12 is out, and the SEC is in.Not exactly an offseason of no news for the Aggies who are in major transition mode in basically all facets of the program as we head into the 2012 season.But even with all that, make no mistake about it – this year’s Aggies are legit, if they can find some QB play from one of their talented, but green youngsters.

Strongest unit: offensive line.A&M returns all 5 starters to a line that was great last year finishing 4th in nation in sacks allowed and blocking the Aggie rushing attack to 200+ yards per game, and will without question be one of the best in the country this season.There is a distinct possibility the three best OLs in college football will not only reside in the same conference, but the same division within that conference in A&M, LSU, and Alabama.There are multiple NFL prospects on the line, and even with the adjustment in scheme from a pro-style offense to more of a spread attack, the line should be able to quickly adjust and be just as productive as 2011.

Biggest area of concern: secondary.There are clear questions as far as who will take over at QB, but there is also clear talent and whoever it is, most likely Jameill Showers, will take some lumps especially vs. SEC defenses – but will also make their fair share of plays.The secondary however is a huge issue, but at least this unit will no longer be facing the robust passing offenses of the Big 12.Right now the starting CBs are both sophomores, while the safeties do not have a senior in the mix.I would expect an offset of sorts – last year Texas A&M led the country in sacks, yet the back four still struggled – this year they will not put as much pressure on up front, but also the opposing QB play will not remain at the high level they often faced in the Big 12.

Upside: 9-3.Yeah, that may look like a great record for Texas A&M joining the SEC – and with a pair of road OOC games, unlikely for BCS conference teams – that may be dreaming some.But this roster is loaded with talent, especially in the trenches where it is most valued – so there is no reason they couldn’t win all 4 OOC games, and finish 5-3 in the SEC with losses vs. LSU, @ Auburn and @ Alabama.

Downside: missing a bowl invite.While there is talent, there will no question be a big adjustment to the more physical, defense oriented football that is played in the SEC.They could certainly struggle and lose 3 of 4 road conference games, while being tested by Florida, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri at home.

Bottom Line: this could be a sleeper team of sorts, especially ATS wise.I feel they will match up very well with their new competition – even better than their Big 12 days.Their real weakness last season, when they went 7-6 but 5 of the 6 losses were by a TD or less, was pass defense, most notably weak secondary play.This season that will not be as much of a concern – and their front 7 will be among the best in the SEC, including perhaps the best LBs in the league.How will their offense perform, especially breaking in a new QB, and the unknown status of RBs Michael and Williams will be the key to their season.

Ole Miss

SOP: Houston Nutt is out, and Hugh Freeze, whom was the head man at Arkansas State last year, takes over a program that is really a flat out disaster currently.Nutt was never able to maximize the talent he brought in, and there were even effort questions towards the end of last season.Freeze has an enormous rebuilding task in front of him, not made any easier with the Rebels residing in the SEC West.

Strongest unit: special teams.Ole Miss boasts a P and return man whom will be in the mix for All America status, while their PK is also solid.Outside that unit, the LBs in the 4-2-5 alignment they will run most of the time have the potential to be very solid if DT Shackelford can return from his knee injury to join Jr. Mike Marry.

Biggest area of concern: offensive line.The entire offense for the most part is a big question mark, but their OL is perhaps the biggest issue especially considering it wasn’t very good last year, and it has lost its two best prospects for 2012.There is size with most of the potential starters checking in above 300, but there isn’t a lot of athleticism or experience to rely upon.

Upside: 4-8.With a relatively light OOC schedule featuring Central Arkansas, UTEP, and Tulane they could possibly get off to a 3-1 start – on the upside remember.I wouldn’t say that’s likely however.In conference play they could potentially steal a win at home vs. Vanderbilt or Mississippi State – a win over the Bulldogs in the Egg Bowl would make this year a success in my opinion by itself.

Downside: 0-fer the FBS.It could happen, could being the key word.Their best chances for wins are over UTEP at home in Wk2, and @ Tulane in Wk4 – but I certainly would not say the Rebels are locks to win either.

Bottom Line: there is just too much cleaning up to do by the new coaching staff from the mess inherited to expect any favorable results in 2012.The key is to start getting some of the right players in the right spots, and perhaps pick up some recruiting momentum by beating rival Mississippi State in their last game of the season.

Kansas

SOP: Charlie Weis is back on the scene, this time in Lawrence, Kansas to try and revive a program that hasn’t had any success since firing Mangino a few years ago.At this point, to be fair, one really has to question the coaching acumen of Weis – he failed to turn ND into anything whatsoever after having one strong season with the prior coach’s players; he then went to Florida with a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball, and the Gators promptly turned in their worst offensive production in quite some time.Now he shows up in Kansas where it isn’t easy to win – and considering Bill Snyder is back at Kansas State and that program is on the rise for now, where will Kansas wind up in 2-3 seasons?I frankly am not sure it will be any better than where it stands today.

Strongest unit: QB.Dayne Crist comes over from ND to team up with Weis for one more season, but how healthy will he be and remain during the season – especially considering Kansas has one of the worst offensive lines in the conference?Jake Heaps, the stud recruit who was a complete flop at BYU also joined the Jayhawks, but he will not be eligible to play until 2013.Then there is Turner Baty, a JUCO transfer who led his team to an undefeated season last year and has both the arm, and the legs to make plays.Crist clearly has the inside step on the starting gig, for now…but I highly doubt he holds up for an entire season.

Biggest area of concern: defense overall, but in particular the secondary. Outside FS Bradley McDougal, there aren’t any solid players in the entire secondary for first year DC Dave Campo to rely on.And that is a big issue in the pass happy Big 12, and a big reason Kansas has struggled mightily over the last few seasons.There isn’t much size, as no player that figures to get time outside JUCO transfer CB Nasir Moore is taller than 5’10.There isn’t any speed whatsoever.And although there is some experience, this same group allowed nearly 70% completion rate last year, with 28 TD passes.

Upside: 5-7.I just cannot see Kansas reaching bowl invite status even on an upside evaluation.I could see 3-0 in OOC play, but have a hard time seeing better than 2-7 in Big 12 play with wins over Iowa State at home and possibly one of @ Baylor / @ Texas Tech.

Downside: let’s be honest here, even with Crist and some of the other talent that has transferred in, this will be a tough season.And on their worst day they could go 1-11 because even games hosting South Dakota State who is the defending FCS champs won’t be a cake walk, Rice at home will not be a snoozer as the Owls have some talent on offense, and @ Northern Illinois will not be easy as they lost to them last year!In a worst case scenario they win one of those games and go 0-9 in Big 12 play.

Bottom Line: although Weis is now in charge, and a lot of “big name talent” has transferred into Lawrence, there is a reason all those options were available this past offseason.Weis hasn’t got the job done at any of his stops in college football, and the same can be said for every guy that transferred into this program.They are all likely to be upgrades over what was there prior, but how much remains to be seen.Even if Weis does a fine job I do not see him doing a good enough job in his tenure to overtake Bill Snyder and make the Jayhawks the best program in Kansas once again.

Pittsburgh

SOP: another coaching change for the Panthers, this time the short lived tenure of Todd Graham ends – thankfully to most Panther fans – and in steps Paul Chryst, former OC for the Wisconsin Badgers.This move seems like a much better fit, especially football style wise, as Chryst will bring in more of a blue collar, rushing oriented pro style offense back to the Steel City.There is a decent amount of returning talent to work around, especially on offense as the skill positions, but how long will the transition take?

Strongest unit: RBs – if all everything RB Ray Graham can return 100% in time for the opener, this unit will be all set to shine – and it’s a key unit for the ’12 Panthers.Backup Isaac Bennett impressed this spring in place of Graham, and 5 star rookie Rushel Shell is also pressing for playing time.If Graham doesn’t come back fully healthy it will still be a talented group, albeit greener & less experienced.The secondary is also extremely solid returning 3 starters and welcoming a pair of former Michigan Wolverines in S Ray Vinopal and CB Cullen Christian.

Biggest area of concern: LBs.On a positive note, with the defense shifting back to a 4-3, only 3 LBs will be needed – however, they head into this season losing 4 seniors from last year including all-star and leading tackler Max Gruder.There is also a serious lack of size in the unit, with nobody in the rotation checking in north of 220lbs.That could be a huge issue, especially with a DL that isn’t known for being stout vs. the rush, and in a conference like the Big East.

Upside: I do feel there is serious upside for this year’s Panthers, as the new coaching staff by itself will add value and strengthen some of the team’s weaker areas, such as the OL.In a season where this team got the breaks and played consistent, I could see them winning the Big East.But keep in mind during OOC play they face Virginia Tech at home, and travel to Notre Dame so a dream season where they win double digit games is not going to happen – not yet.

Downside: the team takes a little longer than hoped adjusting to the massive scheme changes and they miss out on a bowl invite.There is too much experience, especially at key positions such as QB, to have this occur in a likely scenario, but this is the “downside” projection so it is possible, but I wouldn’t say probable.

Bottom Line: Pitt is finally on the right track after a series of errors hiring head coaches.Chryst will bring the team back to the city, and the city will resume backing them.This year we should see a competitive Panther team that will be in the mix for a Big East title when November rolls around – so long as they can get solid production from Graham, and they buy into the new system.

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Baltimore Ravens: get their bye week towards middle of season, Wk8, yielding a favorable split to their season vs. an SOS I have rated #6 based on 2012 current power ratings, and #8 based on a blend of last year’s ratings.The Ravens play no back to back divisional games, but bookend their season with matchups vs. CIN, the opener at home.BAL also has four instances of back to back road or home games, one of which is sandwiched around their bye.Travel wise, they do not play a game past the Central time zone, a definite advantage.BAL has one MNF, two SNF and one TNF contest on the slate currently – all four take place prior to Wk12.As mentioned, their opener with CIN is on MNF, travel to PHI in Wk2, host NE on SNF in Wk3, then have a real short week turning around hosting another divisional rival CLE in Wk4.Talk about a tough start to the season, a pair of divisional contests sandwiched around a trips to NFC & AFC contenders….and the last game, probably the easiest of the bunch, comes off very short rest and a game vs. NE.In Wk11 they travel to PIT for their final night game of the season, and follow that up with back to back late kicks on Sunday @ SD then the return visit from hated rival PIT.Facing PIT twice in three weeks isn’t good for anyone involved, and I strongly feel the schedule maker should be chastised for making such a terrible display of judgment.Just for fun, and something to keep an eye on as we approach Wk12, targeting a play on SD when they host the Ravens may not be a bad idea as that game will be a massive look-ahead spot for the Ravens with the Steelers coming up next, along with BAL having to travel across the country following what is likely to be a physical SNF game the week before vs. those same Steelers.Overall there are a few key spots where the schedule didn’t work out well for BAL, and savvy handicappers can and will take advantage of such instances.

Pittsburgh Steelers: an early bye week is the first concern regarding a slate that appears to be pretty tough not so much opponents wise (middle of pack in all analysis), but layout wise for certain.PIT plays 5 of their last 7 games within the division, including a pair to close their season at home vs. CIN & CLE.Sandwiched in between those five divisional contests is a pair of tough games, hosting SD and travelling to DAL in Wk15.The Steelers play 4 of their first 6 on the road, including games vs. potential playoff teams @ DEN in Wk1, hosting NYJ in Wk2, and hosting PHI off their bye in Wk5.Look for those divisional contests late in the season to determine their fate as far as the playoffs go.Analyzing kickoff times for PIT, we have a ton of variation which without question impacts a team as their normal game day routine is impacted.This year PIT plays games at the following times:six 1pm, five 4pm, three SNF, one MNF, and one TNF for good measure.Talk about variation!With a schedule as such there are clearly games to target early on – remember, these are only games to keep an eye on when the time comes – by no means at all can you make wagers on any of these games based solely on this information, and by no means do I ever recommend playing any game right now vs. the spread – way to many things can still happen which makes placing bets now more of a crapshoot than a true skill set.The only truly tough turnaround with all that variation comes in Wks 4-5, where the Steelers host PHI then travel to TEN 4 days later.Overall this certainly has the makings of a tough schedule this season for the Steelers.

Cleveland Browns: my ratings have the Browns with the #1 toughest schedule using a blend of last year’s final power ratings & last year’s statistical performance of their opponents.When using my power ratings where things currently stand (which will move obviously as we get closer to the season and get a better feel for team’s strength) they check in at 4th toughest, including 3rd toughest home slate.On a favorable note, CLE has a 9/7 split to their schedule around their bye week.Before their bye week they will play 4 of their 6 divisional contests, and also face a pair of teams coming off their bye weeks when they take on SD in Wk8, and BAL in Wk9 – both at home.The easiest portion of their schedule is the last 5, although a pair of road games to close the season vs. DEN & PIT will not be easy whatsoever.CLE only has a pair of 4pm kicks, along with their one TNF game – the rest of their games, as of now, will start at 1pm.Their short week could be worse, as they host BUF the week before going to BAL for a Thursday night showdown in the Big B.It will clearly be an uphill battle for the Browns to improve on last year’s 4 wins with this schedule, even with a fair breakout of kickoff times.

Cincinnati Bengals: bye week comes Wk8, which is the same as BAL & CLE – overall favorable spot, only Wk9 can be better as that splits the season in two eight game slates.What is interesting about the Bengals schedule is they play their six divisional contests in three back to back sets, starting with the opening two weeks @ BAL then hosting CIN; right before their bye week they play @ CLE then hosting PIT; and last two weeks @ PIT then hosting BAL.Playing divisional contests in back to back weeks is not favorable as those are always the biggest and most important games in a season.CIN does have a three game home stand sandwiched around the bye week – Wk7 PIT, Wk8 bye, Wk9 DEN, Wk10 NYG – talk about a tough trio, all those teams have designs on winning a Super Bowl in 2012.After enjoying some success last season, the NFL has decided to showcase the up and coming Bengals in three primetime games, along with a pair of 4pm starts (one of which is @ SD, the other in JAC Wk4 so no real options there for early starts as early season games in Florida for most part will start at 4pm due to the heat factor).None of those five instances come back to back, and their short week at least involves games vs. the NFC where they host DAL before travelling to PHI for their TNF matchup.Look for a strong start from the Bengals as outside the opener and game before their bye week they face a very manageable schedule, with no teams in the top 18 of statistical performance from 2011 (highest is #18 MIA whom they host in Wk5).

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

NY Jets: this year any way you break it down the Jets have one of the easier slates in the NFL as far as their opponents go.They also get their bye week right in the middle of the season, week 9, which gives them 8 games before and 8 games after.Four of their first six are at home, along with five of their first eight before the bye week.What is a little troubling for the NYJ however is they will play 4 of their 6 divisional games before their bye week, split evenly between home and road.Outside those 4 divisional matchups they play @ PIT in Week 2, then face a three week home stand Weeks 4-6 vs. SF, HOU and IND.Things ease up somewhat after the bye week as they face the three weaker NFC West teams – and get a break having a west coast trip to SEA following the bye week – travelling to the West Coast is a spot they have traditionally struggled in.They finish with 3 of 4 on the road, none vs. likely playoff teams, with a visit from SD squeezed between in Week 16.As far as game time’s go, they will play three 4pm games, a pair of MNF contests, one SNF and one TNF.They are not overly impacted by short weeks or their road games as far as travelling goes – regular rest till Sunday for games following both MNF contests (one of those is a SNF game in Wk16 hosting SD following their last MNF @ TEN), and their short week for their one TNF game comes after a trip to STL.Overall, this appears to be one of the better schedules in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins: the Dolphins have not only the easiest schedule according to my metrics this coming season as far as opponents go, the layout of their games is extremely manageable for the most part.Their bye week also comes towards the middle of the season in Week 7, while they have two instances a piece of playing back to back home or road games during the season.They play only one set of back to back division games, the final two weeks of the season where they host BUF then travel to NE to close the season out.They also play four of their last six games at home, meaning their only likely cold weather game will be the aforementioned Patriots game – they do have road games with TEN & BUF back to back in Weeks 10 & 11 which could potentially be chilly, but frigid temps and/or nasty weather for those games are unlikely.One interesting point is the pure mileage MIA will have to travel this year for road games – their closest road game is likely HOU, with every other trip either to the Pacific Time zone, or north of the Mason Dixon line.They will only have 3 games as of now that will not start at 1pm: Wk4 @ ARI, Wk14 @ SF will both be 4pm kickoffs, while Wk11 they travel to BUF to face the Bills on TNF.Their lone non-Sunday game follows a home date vs. TEN, which seems to be somewhat favorable.

Buffalo Bills: like their AFC East brethren, the Bills are a little light on opponents this season as the AFC East matches up with the AFC South and the NFC West – which are likely the worst divisions in each conference.BUF also gets their bye week in a nice spot, Week 8, which means a manageable 7/9 games split before and after.The other piece of good news for the Bills is they get a nice 3 game home stand Weeks 13-15 in likely chilly conditions at Ralph Wilson – and they are three games they will be favored to win vs. JAC, STL, SEA.Also, they close the year with 4 of 5 at home, the last two of which are back to back divisional games @ MIA and hosting NYJ – whom they also open with.In between BUF does play divisional matchups back to back in two instances, but none are a pair of road games.One negative for the Bills is the fact they twice play a team that is coming off their bye week, which is a pretty significant disadvantage.Only PHI and ATL face more team’s off their bye week than BUF (CLE, DAL, DET, OAK & GB are all tied with BUF with two instances).The Bills only have 25% of their games currently scheduled to kickoff at a time other than 1pm: three 4pm contests Wks 5-6 @ SF & ARI respectively, and Wk15 hosting SEA.Their lone TNF matchup is vs. MIA, in Ralph Wilson Stadium Wk11.That lone TNF game isn’t situated in the best of spots as it immediately follows a pair of tough road games vs. AFC favorites HOU & NE.On a good note, that game really starts a run to close the season that will be very favorable for BUF to potentially make a late season push towards a Wild Card berth.If BUF can perform well from Weeks 1-10, their last 7 games are extremely manageable – five are at home, and none are vs. playoff teams from a year ago.Look out for the Bills if they can start the 2012 campaign like they did last season.

New England Patriots: like the Jets, NE’s bye comes in Week 9, perfecting slicing their season in two nice and even pieces.Although they project to face the toughest schedule of AFC East teams, it is far from a juggernaut as DEN, HOU and SF all travel to NE – the only tough non-divisional road game is @ BAL in Wk3, and possibly a trip to the Pacific Northwest to face the Seahawks in Wk6.Sans the closing game vs. MIA in Foxboro (each game in Week 17 is between division rivals), their other five divisional games come in a 9 game stretch midseason which will not be easy.They also “luck out” in that they only play one game in the Mountain or Pacific Time zones – even though they are facing the NFC West!In somewhat of a surprise, the Patriots only play one MNF game all year, hosting HOU in Wk14 in what could potentially be an AFC Championship Game preview late in the season.They do have a pair of SNF matchups, both coming against potential SB teams @ BAL Wk3 & hosting SF Wk15.NE has their TNF game in Wk12 @ NYJ, which is Thanksgiving night.Lastly, they currently are slated to kickoff three games @ 4pm – and they all come in a row Wks 5-7 vs. DEN, @ SEA, vs. NYJ.Time wise there doesn’t seem to be much measurable impact of being at a disadvantage this season.Overall it seems another nice slate for the Patriots to perform well, and secure a playoff spot.

I will be back later in the week with the next installment, the AFC North. And will be posting 2 entries per week, on Tuesday's and Thursday's till the entire NFL is posted.

Friday, May 11, 2012

Each offseason leading up to a new season I complete an analysis of 4 key statistics – called my “Leading Indicators” – I feel are critical to team success.Those four stats are point differential (which is simply points scored minus points allowed), yards per play, first downs per game, and turnover margin – those four by themselves are very highly correlated with win/loss performance year after year.Besides setting up this analysis for the upcoming season, I also go back and check how these stats and the story they told for the prior season wound up working out – remember, there is only so much time in a day, only so much time anyone can spend on breaking down games, so you must continually verify the work you are doing, and that the stats you are analyzing are in fact adding value to your handicapping style.If they are not, you need to find better information to spend your limited quality time on.This “looking back analysis” will allow you to focus in on what stats are critical, and better utilize those figures for the upcoming season.

Here is a look at last year’s leading indicators analysis – I will break down 3 of the 4 stats I mentioned above leaving out turnovers for now – they are perhaps the most critical, but I will be performing a more detailed analysis on that stat down the line – which will be featured in its own blog entry – so today I will not spend any time on it.Not only will I look back in this article, but will also use these statistics to look ahead at what we can expect to happen in the upcoming 2012 season.

Points Differential: simple calculation by taking the average points scored per game minus the average points allowed per game which yields a points differential per game.There is a pretty standard matrix across the industry that has been put together studying just this figure over the last 30 or so years, which allows you to slot teams into a specific projected record based on this number.Once you do that the value analysis is then added by comparing the actual record of a team vs. the record their points differential suggest it should have led to – and based on that you can green or red flag specific teams for the upcoming season.

·Studying the 2010 season before the 2011 season, 7 teams actual records were off by 2+ games either way based on their points differential:

oDET, GB, OAK, TEN all had actual records in 2010 that were worse than their points differential suggested, meaning a wins increase in 2011 was likely. What happened?Three of the four did in fact increase their wins: DET 6 to 10, GB 10 to 15, TEN 6 to 9.The only team that did not increase was OAK, who stayed flat at 8-8.

oJAC, SEA, TB all had actual records in 2010 that were better than their points differential suggested, meaning a decrease in wins was likely in 2011.What happened? Two of the three did see their win mark drop: JAC 8 to 5 & TB 10 to 4.The one remaining team SEA stayed flat at 7-9.

KEY TAKEAWAY: Not one team that was expected to go one way went the other. Five of the seven teams that were expected to move did move where we projected, with the remaining two staying flat.No team moved against their projection.

·Based on 2011 figures, for the 2012 season we expect to see:

oMIA & PHI to increase their wins this year.I think nearly everyone around the NFL expects PHI to make a push towards the playoffs this season, while MIA could be a sleeper of sorts under new leadership.

oDEN, KC, OAK, PIT, TB to decrease this year. DEN is probably an outlier of sorts as the signing of one of the best QBs of all time will essentially eliminate this projection I would say. KC & OAK both seem like great candidates to see their record drop as their schedule is killer this year playing the NFC South and AFC North, probably the two best divisions in each conference from top to bottom.PIT lost a lot of personnel on the defensive side of the football and with increasing competition in the AFC North they could drop some, while TB would seem hard pressed to drop from last year’s 4-12 record, although with a very tough schedule I blogged about earlier this week it is definitely possible – or at the very least they could remain at 4-12.

Yards per Play: the calculation is straight forward, and the idea here is to take this number for each team, sort from best to worst, and identify outliers – where teams that are near the top of this metric had a poor record, or vice versa.

·When examining the 2010 season prior to the 2011 season, here were some of the outliers that could be isolated as teams that had either a green or red flag heading into the season:

oHOU was #2 in yards per play, but was the only team in the top 8 of this stat that did not post a record at .500 or better.Seven of the top eight in this stat posted double digit wins in 2010. HOU however only reached 6 wins, suggesting in 2011 they would be a targeted team to increase their wins.What happened?They did just that, improving four games all the way to double digit wins, 10. What’s more, DAL was the only other team besides HOU in the top 11 that wasn’t at least .500 – what did the Cowboys do in 2011?They went from 6 to 8 wins, in fact reaching that .500 mark.

oCHI & ATL were on the other end of the spectrum, both among the bottom 7 in the NFL as far as the yards per play stat goes, posting a mark below 5.00.Based on the idea they were near the bottom of the league in this important stat, yet somehow managed to post a strong record in 2010, you would expect them to worsen in 2011. What happened?Both teams dropped 3 games off their 2010 win totals.

KEY TAKEAWAY: There is a clear correlation between a team’s win/loss record and their success or failure in the yards per play metric.Heading into 2011 there were only two teams that were within the top 11 of this stat, yet failed to post a .500 or better record in 2010 – they reversed that in 2011 with both reaching at least 8 wins.In addition, it works on the flip side as of the bottom 7 teams in the NFL, only two posted a .500 or better mark in 2010 – and both those teams reverted downwards in 2011.

· Based upon 2011 figures, for the 2012 season we expect to see:

oSF & BAL to have a worse record compared to 2011.I think most experts agree SF will take a step back from the 13-3 mark they posted last season, while BAL, similar to PIT, is competing in an improved AFC North but could wind up, at worst, sticking to their 12-4 mark from 2011.

oCAR will have a better record, while BUF is on the fringe.I think you would be hard pressed to find any NFL analyst that does not think CAR will rise above last season’s 6 win total, creeping towards .500 at the least.

First Downs per Game: another straight forward calculation or stat you can pull from just about any website, this gives a good idea of the consistency and success teams have a moving the ball, and hence scoring points.While the big play isn’t captured in this metric, they are few and far between – and a much more favorable way to measure success of an offense is by their success picking up first downs.

·When examining the 2010 season prior to the 2011 season, here were some of the outliers that could be isolated as teams that had either a green or red flag heading into the season:

oCHI & TB were the only two teams of the bottom 12 in this stat that won double digit games in 2010.What happened in 2011?You guessed it, both teams records worsened considerably with CHI going from 11-5 to 8-8, and TB going from 10-6 to 4-12.

oHOU, DAL, CIN, DEN were the only teams from the top 15 of this stat that were below .500 record wise in 2010.When 2011 was over and in the books all 4 saw their wins improve: HOU 6 to 10, DAL 6 to 8, CIN 4 to 9, DEN 4 to 8.

KEY TAKEAWAY: Just like Points Differential & Yards per Play, the First Downs per Game metric is another sure fire sign of impending doom or celebration for teams the following year.What makes this stat, along with the prior two amazing is there are no outliers whatsoever amongst them – every time the statistics point to an increase or a decrease in a team’s record, it happens.

· Based upon 2011 figures, for the 2012 season we expect to see:

oSF to have a worse record

oCAR to have a better record, while BUF again is on the fringe

As mentioned in the beginning of this post, Turnover Margin is the other leading indicator I use, but it will not be discussed here today.I will feature an entire blog entry on this topic in the coming weeks, and trust me when I tell you that is a must read for any football handicapper.

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

We have known the opponents for quite some time, but recently, NFL schedule maker Howard Katz put the finishing touches on the 2012 season by setting up each matchup across the 17 weeks of the regular season.Talk about a tough job!Obviously he cannot make every team happy, as he does have a tough gig – but let’s take a closer look first at SOS measured by my final power ratings for the 2011 regular season; then taking a look at SOS using initial 2012 figures including both my current power rankings for each team which is based on statistical performance, along with the second piece of my ratings that plays out the entire season based on the aforementioned power ratings which gives me another rating – blended those two make up each team’s power rating.

We all have read, or can easily read, SOS #’s for next year’s schedule based on opponent winning % last year – that is all the media discusses.I myself do not find a ton of value in that exercise, and frankly that is very straightforward and too heavy on last year’s record – not even true performance statistically which is a better true feel for how a team will play.The main reason using last year’s records for current season SOS is not a good exercise is each season we can expect at least 8 & usually no more than 12 teams will shift their win total by four or more – hence, not a lot of promise in doing any SOS analysis based on last year’s records.

2012 Schedule Rank

2012 Schedule Rank

Based on 2011

Based on End of Season

2012 Schedule Rank

Statistical Performance (a)

RANKING

2011 Power Ratings (b)

RANKING

Blended 50/50

RANKING

NY GIANTS

191

1

355

1

2

1

DENVER

225

4

348

2

6

2

WASHINGTON

220

2

344

4

6

2

TAMPA BAY

228

5

346

3

8

4

CLEVELAND

224

3

341

9

12

5

BALTIMORE

231

6

343

7

13

6

PHILADELPHIA

234

7

341

9

16

7

CAROLINA

243

11

343

6

17

8

CINCINNATI

238

8

339

11

19

9

TENNESSEE

256

14

343

5

19

9

ARIZONA

254

13

342

8

21

11

DALLAS

240

9

337

13

22

12

ATLANTA

254

13

334

16

29

13

NEW ORLEANS

243

11

333

18

29

13

OAKLAND

266

18

339

12

30

15

NY JETS

283

21

334

15

36

16

KANSAS CITY

260

16

329

22

38

17

SAN DIEGO

265

17

330

21

38

17

INDIANAPOLIS

286

23

334

16

39

19

SEATTLE

276

19

332

20

39

19

ST LOUIS

288

25

335

14

39

19

PITTSBURGH

259

15

328

25

40

22

CHICAGO

284

22

328

24

46

23

JACKSONVILLE

278

20

325

28

48

24

DETROIT

292

26

329

23

49

25

SAN FRANCISCO

300

31

332

19

50

26

MIAMI

288

25

326

26

51

27

GREEN BAY

300

31

326

26

57

28

MINNESOTA

298

28

321

30

58

29

NEW ENGLAND

295

27

321

31

58

29

BUFFALO

300

31

324

29

60

31

HOUSTON

319

32

317

32

64

32

(a) Represents an aggregate of full season rankings based on statistical performance rank.The lower a number is the tougher the schedule played.

(b) Represents an aggregate of full season rankings based on 2011 final power ratings.The higher a number is the tougher the schedule played.

Above I outline SOS based on two factors – first column is based on where opponents slotted in my “statistical performance ratings” – as support for footnote (a), a lower raw figure represents a stronger schedule because the best statistical performing team from last year obviously gets a #1 rank; the second column is based on my 2011 end of season power ratings – as support for footnote (b), a higher raw figure represents a stronger schedule because the team with the best power rating would have the highest number.The third column is an aggregation of the “rank” columns from the first two “rank” columns, and those are then ranked in the far right green column to give an overall blended SOS based on those two measurements.

Based on this type of analysis, using a pair of 2011 systems to project 2012 SOS, NYG have the strongest schedule – which many would argue makes sense because after all, they are the defending Super Bowl Champions – but we all know it doesn’t work that way, it just so happens with the rotation of inter-conference play the Giants come in at the top.DEN & WAS are tied for second, while TB & CLE round out the top 5.

While there is some value at using 2011 figures in an SOS analysis, let’s move forward some and focus on using my initial 2012 ratings for SOS.Keep in mind however tweaks will still be needed before the season starts, but as of now I have made adjustments to include injuries, FA moves, key draft picks, coaching changes, etc.

SOS Rank based on Initial

SOS Rank based on 2011

2012 Power Ratings

50/50 blend (from above)

Raw Score

RANK

RANK

Variance (a)

NY GIANTS

349

1

1

0

TAMPA BAY

348

2

4

(2)

CLEVELAND

344

3

5

(2)

ARIZONA

344

4

11

(7)

NEW ORLEANS

343

5

13

(8)

BALTIMORE

342

6

6

0

DALLAS

341

7

12

(5)

DENVER

341

8

2

6

PHILADELPHIA

340

9

7

2

WASHINGTON

340

9

2

7

SEATTLE

339

11

19

(8)

CAROLINA

339

12

8

4

ATLANTA

339

12

13

(1)

TENNESSEE

337

14

9

5

ST LOUIS

336

15

19

(4)

CHICAGO

335

16

23

(7)

CINCINNATI

334

17

9

8

SAN FRANCISCO

334

18

26

(8)

DETROIT

333

19

25

(6)

KANSAS CITY

333

20

17

3

MIAMI

332

21

27

(6)

JACKSONVILLE

332

22

24

(2)

PITTSBURGH

332

23

22

1

MINNESOTA

332

24

29

(5)

SAN DIEGO

331

25

17

8

NY JETS

331

26

16

10

OAKLAND

330

27

15

12

GREEN BAY

330

28

28

0

INDIANAPOLIS

328

29

19

10

NEW ENGLAND

328

29

29

0

BUFFALO

325

31

31

0

HOUSTON

318

32

32

0

(a) Represents the difference between SOS using 2012 Initial Power Ratings vs. using blended 2011 Ratings from above (far right column)

What does this all mean?A LOT!The numbers in this matrix are sorted based on 2012 rating projected strength.We can see there was limited movement at the top of the ratings as the NYG remain as the #1 toughest schedule, while TB & CLE stay amongst the top 5.ARI & NO did take pretty significant jumps, sliding up into the top 5, while DEN & WAS dropped some but remained in the top ten.One key item that really stands out is towards the bottom where we see HOU as having the easiest schedule, with NE, GB, NYJ, SD & PIT amongst the bottom ten.All those teams have designs on at least reaching the playoffs, with quite a few having Super Bowl dreams – and it appears at this stage their schedule will assist them in reaching some of those goals.

There is my initial SOS analysis for the 2012 season – I did not want to spend a ton of time discussing the #s at this point as they will still move a bunch before the season starts – so we can come back to this exercise in late August and measure the impact of changes to power ratings before the season starts.

There is so much more to come!Here is a brief look at some of the entries I am already working on – the plan is to post at least one, and possibly two per week in the near future, at least through May.

Key Trends over last four seasons breakdown by team

Updated Turnover Analysis

Detailed team by team schedule capsules examining actual layout of games, the impact divisional games have, the start times, etc….I will likely break this down into 8 entries to the blog, one division per entry, two entries per week

Updated Leading Indicators Analysis

Statistical Influence on games – which have the greatest, and show examples from last year

Projected Standings using my initial power ratings to play the entire season out

The +/- 4 games analysis – each season we see approximately 25% of teams increase of decrease their win total from the prior year by 4+.We will examine who has done this over the last few years, and try to identify prime candidates to pull it off in 2012

That only mentions a few of the great NFL things I am working on for the coming season.Be sure to continue checking back here for more information, and as always, if you have any questions or comments do not hesitate to email me directly at boss@thesportsboss.com, or leave comment here on the blog for everyone to use as a discussion.

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.