When analysts look back on a particular NBA draft, they often judge teams based on the players they could have taken. To look at who was still on the board and assess whether a team picked the best possible player is a simple way to judge success or failure. But, like most things in life, it's never that simple.

No franchise has always picked the best possible player available with every pick. That's an impossible task. However, some teams – the Spurs, Celtics, Jazz and Warriors come to mind – seem to be better than others at maximizing the return on their draft picks. But why? Perhaps it's as simple as having a plan, or, too often in the case of the Grizzlies, not having one.

Hasheem Thabeet was bad pick

"We just are not going to get a chance to get a shot blocker, shot alterer, someone who can have the defensive impact like Hasheem Thabeet in every draft. He's the best shot blocker in the history of the franchise," Grizzlies general manager Chris Wallace said after the 2009 NBA draft.

It turns out Thabeet is not the best shot blocker in the history of the Grizzlies. Although he was 7-foot-3, and though he had a great deal of promise as a defensive anchor, Thabeet never really looked like an NBA player on the court. His selection is an example of one repeated Grizzlies draft issue – picking without a long-term plan.

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The Grizzlies' O.J. Mayo and Hasheem Thabeet get a rest against the Rockets in a game in 2010.(Photo: Nikki Boertman, The Commercial Appeal)

Although Thabeet was 22 when he was drafted, he was very much a project, a player who would need nurturing and playing time to reach whatever his potential best could be. Did the Grizzlies intend to give him that time? Given the fact that they had three other 7-footers on the roster, including Marc Gasol, the answer was a resounding no. Gasol started all 69 games in which he appeared; Thabeet started the other 13 games Gasol missed. Thabeet wasn't great, of course, but he also never got much of a chance to take his lumps on the court.

Couple that with Thabeet's notable aversion to practice and you've got a recipe for one of the biggest busts in draft history. Perhaps it could have been avoided, perhaps it could have been mitigated; you'll never know for sure because, in what would become a trend, the Grizzlies gave up on Thabeet just a year and a half into his Memphis career.

Giving up too soon

Although he was the highest-profile miss, Thabeet wasn't the only one. In the same trade that sent Thabeet to Houston, the Rockets also acquired DeMarre Carroll, the player the Grizzlies picked with the 27th pick in that same 2009 draft. Carroll has gone on to be a very productive player over a nine-year career, particularly excelling in Atlanta, but when he was picked by the Grizzlies, they had no idea what to do with him. Carroll played sparingly in Memphis before being moved on.

A year later, picking 12th, the Grizzlies selected Xavier Henry out of Kansas – and, unusually, the Grizzlies moved him directly into the starting lineup as a rookie. He didn't play well. That's not unusual for a rookie. About a month into the season, he suffered a knee injury that ended up being his downfall in Memphis. He was traded early in his second year for power forward Marreese Speights.

Greivis Vasquez was taken 28th by the Grizzlies in that 2010 draft. He showed some promise in his rookie season, and Grizzlies fans will never forget his game-tying 3 in the triple-overtime second-round playoff classic against the Thunder. However, like Henry, he was traded early in his second year for Quincy Pondexter.

Tony Wroten was selected 25th in the 2012 draft. Like Henry, he was quite young, and considered by most to be a very raw, exciting guard in need of a lot of development in order to succeed. The Grizzlies, in the midst of a successful season, could find little playing time for an immature Wroten and ended up trading him after his rookie season. He was traded to the Sixers for a second-round pick that never conveyed; in essence, he was given away.

Two years ago, the Grizzlies selected Wade Baldwin IV with the 17th pick in the draft. Stop me if you've heard this before – he was a raw, exciting guard who was likely to need a lot of development in order to succeed. The Grizzlies, in the midst of a successful season, could find little playing time for an immature Baldwin. Baldwin, though, was not traded; rather, he was waived at the end of last year's preseason, a victim of numbers. The Grizzlies chose to waive him instead of another young point guard, Andrew Harrison.

The list could go on. It's also been tarnished by bad luck with injuries – while he, too, struggled for playing time, 2014 first-round pick Jordan Adams also had his career essentially ended by a freak knee injury. Henry's knee troubles also ended up being career-ending.

But the point remains. How can a team expect to get the most out of its draft picks if it A) won't play them and B) doesn't keep them? The problem isn't merely one of talent identification; more than that, it's about talent development – and patience.

Rookie comparison

Rookie A is Vasquez. Rookie B is Draymond Green. One was traded after his first year; one was eventually nurtured into a system built to maximize him. Not to say Vasquez would have been as successful as Green – that's pretty clearly not the case – but how is anyone to know what Year 3 of Vasquez in Memphis would have looked like? How much better could he, or any of these guys, have been?

Putting it more plainly – if the Grizzlies had taken James Harden instead of Thabeet, would he have turned into this Harden? Had they taken Green rather than Wroten, would he have even lasted into year two, never mind turned into the All-Star he's become? Or would they, like so many other Grizzlies draft picks, have underachieved?

From 2009 through 2015, not a single player who started his career in Memphis lasted more than two seasons. It is an incredible indictment on the team's development philosophy to spend six seasons in such a way. Inoculated by the success of the Core Four, the front office's short-term thinking left the long-term cupboard rather bare.

Poor drafting and a lack of development philosophy have led to this sobering fact – since O.J. Mayo and Gasol in 2008-09, the Grizzlies haven't had a single rookie make either the NBA's All-Rookie first or second teams. They are the only team in the NBA not to – all of the 29 other teams have been represented at least once, most more than once.

Forcier-ed to change

Clearly something needs to change. And perhaps it will. Chad Forcier was added to the Grizzlies coaching staff as J.B. Bickerstaff's lead assistant. Forcier's resume suggests he's going to be able to help the Grizzlies take great strides in improving their poor record of player development.

Forcier began his NBA career working under player development guru Tim Grgurich, then worked under longtime coach Rick Carlisle. But it was his time spent working in San Antonio for Gregg Popovich and the Spurs that should interest Grizzlies fans most of all.

Assistant coach Chad Forcier in 2015 when he was with the San Antonio Spurs.(Photo: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)

Along with shooting coach Chip Engelland, who overhauled his shot, Forcier is credited with helping Kawhi Leonard develop the bevy of moves he's used to become one of the best players in the NBA. Leonard was a 25 percent 3-point shooter in college. He's a 39 percent shooter in the pros. He was selected midway through the 2011 draft. He's now, when healthy, an All-NBA player year in and year out.

Forcier was also instrumental in developing IUPUI point guard George Hill into a solid NBA player. There have been few teams that have had more success in developing their own young players than San Antonio, and Forcier was a big part of that. He's now in Memphis, a place that's in desperate need of his expertise.

No matter whom the Grizzlies select at No. 4, they've got to identify the right player and commit to him – not only now, but also in the seasons to come. History has shown all too well what happens if they don't.