Sunday, August 28, 2011

August 29th Simulations

Pitchers Duel At The OK Ravine ...

Dodgers Game Notes: Today's Dodgers game will likely be a very low scoring affair (Latos vs Kershaw). The Vegas Run Total line is 5-1/2 runs with -125 juice on the Over portion, which amounts to a non-juice over/under of right around 5.9 runs. The simulator has the over/under at 6.10 runs. When simulated 100K times 49.78% of the time the game went Over, which is basically a 50/50 split. Historically, by Vegas standards today's game is the 12th lowest Over/Under of the season. Amazingly this ranks tied for 4th, for the lowest Over/Under in a Kershaw pitched game (Weaver, Cain, Luebke, Chacin). The top three most likely scores have the Dodgers winning 3-2, 2-1, 1-0, with the fourth most likely score a Padres 2-1 victory.