Republicans can't help it but Americans reaching consensus on abortion

American Way: As strident activists carry the day at state level,
America is reaching a quiet consensus on abortion, writes John Avlon

Sen. Wendy Davis spoke for 11 hours in an effort to kill an abortion bill that would have shut most clinics in Austin, TexasPhoto: AP

By John Avlon

5:00PM BST 06 Jul 2013

In America, all politics is local. And the fault lines for future elections are emerging in culture wars waged at state level.

Throughout the 2012 election, Republicans tried to win over swing voters with the same message: it's not about the social issues; it's about the economy.

This agitated chorus only grew louder as evangelical Republicans such as Todd Aiken and Richard Mourdock imploded over tortured explanations of their opposition to abortion, even in cases of rape or incest. In the end, they lost in states where they should have won. This is the measurable cost of alienating centrist voters with social issue extremism.

But in recent weeks, just below the national radar, Republicans keep returning to social issues from gay marriage to abortion: like a moth to a flame, they just can't help themselves.

A single mother at age 18 who grew up in a trailer park, Davis graduated from Harvard Law School and now represents Fort Worth in the state legislature. She was all but unknown until her filibuster, which went viral on social media: at daybreak unknown; by midnight a star.

It would be dishonest to say that her good looks did not help – even her pink sneakers became the subject of internet fascination – but the substance of her stand drove the interest, as the capital dome brimmed with cheering supporters.

But while national cameras were trained on Davis in Austin, conservatives in Ohio successfully added their own "end run" around federal abortion laws in an otherwise unrelated budget bill, adding restrictions including removing funding from rape crisis centres that discuss the option of abortion.

In North Carolina, a similar measure passed the state legislature after it was tacked on to a bill designed to block Islamic law from being implemented in the southern state (an unlikely scenario). The provisions, added without public comment or debate, would require clinics to meet certain surgical standards, ensuring that the state's Planned Parenthood clinics would be closed.

Reality check: since the allegedly libertarian Tea Party revolution of 2010, almost every Republican-controlled state legislature has enacted some kind of anti-abortion legislation, including swing states such as Pennsylvania Virginia, Wisconsin, and Arizona.

On the federal level, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed its 20-week abortion ban in June. Now Republicans in the Senate are eyeing their own version. This is a priority, pure and simple.

But while the activists are fighting a vicious culture war of attrition, the rest of America is coming to an organic consensus. Yes, as conservatives are fond of pointing out, a narrow majority describe themselves as "pro-life". But in the same Gallup poll, 52 per cent of Americans say they believe abortion should be legal in some circumstances. Only 20 per cent say it should be illegal in all circumstances – the position codified in the Republican Party platform.

At the other extreme, 25 per cent say it should be legal in all circumstances. Moreover, 90 per cent of all abortions occur in the first trimester, and fewer than 1 per cent after 20 weeks. The old Clintonian formula of "safe, legal, and rare" seems to have quietly carried the day while the activists scream.