Comment - Tuesday View

Latest Tuesday Views

Greece may be off most market participants’ radars for the moment. But with another election in the country looking increasingly likely, an already busy period for political risk could be about to grow worse.

Regulators, politicians and investors are right to be sceptical about synthetic securitizations as a tool for transferring risk. Pre-crisis deals were rife with confusing, and at times dishonest, documentation. But with the right approach, these deals can help banks reduce their risk and give qualified investors access to much needed yield.

China is expected to introduce incentives for green bond issuance as part of its efforts to push forward its developing green bond market. Singapore should do the same, if it wants to bring its sluggish bond market back to life.

The supply-demand dynamic for overseas syndicated loans from India so far this year is firmly in favour of demand. This has resulted in price compression that is a headache for banks but makes it a great time for Indian corporates to refinance. Borrowers should act now.

Those watching Zambia bonds might think that the $1.25bn deal this week yielding 9.375% demonstrates a borrower on the ropes considering in 2012 it paid a coupon of 5.375% for its debut bond. In fact, this is a borrower showing smarts when the rest of the CEEMEA gang appear to have bottled it.

The adding of FC Barcelona legend Pep Guardiola’s name to a list of pro-independence candidates for the Catalonia regional parliament elections in September is the latest in a long line of football/capital markets crossovers. Rarely do they end well.

The unusual execution of some recent Chinese euro deals might not be everyone’s cup of tea, especially those participants who like to preach best market practices. But the doomsayers should not be so quick to condemn. What the Chinese have shown is the type of flexibility that is needed to get deals done.

When a market doubles in size in a year, only to collapse by a quarter in a few weeks, a dose of panic is all but guaranteed. That’s exactly what has been happening with Chinese stocks, which went from boom to bust in the blink of an eye. But more surprising than the panicked reactions of Chinese regulators have been the many voices among international observers that the crisis spells doom for the RMB internationalisation process. That seems unlikely.

CEEMEA borrowers pounced on a clear window this week and paid for it with premiums as high as 50bp. But while everyone talks about the size of the concessions, it's worth noting that issuers showed the maturity to accept them.

What the Greece agreement means for its future and European democracy is open to debate. But the Greek crisis’s can kicking of the last few years will certainly increase in volume and frequency — meaning SSAs should get used to a window driven market.

China’s domestic stock market has been gripped by chaos in recent weeks, and as investors duck for cover, it would be easy for bankers to fall back on cornerstone support to get deals done. But they would be missing a crucial opportunity for Asia ECM to grow up.

Investors have been complaining about a lack of harmonisation across bank capital products for years. But with new loss-absorbency rules putting it more at risk than ever, they appear to have fallen silent.