Impact of a reduced red and processed meat dietary pattern on disease risks and greenhouse gas emissions in the UK: a modelling
study

Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Cambridge, Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

Correspondence to
Dr Louise M Aston; louise.aston{at}cantab.net

Received 29 March 2012

Accepted 2 July 2012

Published 10 September 2012

Abstract

Objectives Consumption of red and processed meat (RPM) is a leading contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and high intakes
of these foods increase the risks of several leading chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to use newly derived estimates
of habitual meat intakes in UK adults to assess potential co-benefits to health and the environment from reduced RPM consumption.

Design Modelling study using dietary intake data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey of British Adults.

Setting British general population.

Methods Respondents were divided into fifths by energy-adjusted RPM intakes, with vegetarians constituting a sixth stratum. GHG emitted
in supplying the diets of each stratum was estimated using data from life-cycle analyses. A feasible counterfactual UK population
was specified, in which the proportion of vegetarians measured in the survey population doubled, and the remainder adopted
the dietary pattern of the lowest fifth of RPM consumers.

Outcome measures Reductions in risks of coronary heart disease, diabetes and colorectal cancer, and GHG emissions, under the counterfactual.

Results Habitual RPM intakes were 2.5 times higher in the top compared with the bottom fifth of consumers. Under the counterfactual,
statistically significant reductions in population aggregate risks ranged from 3.2% (95% CI 1.9 to 4.7) for diabetes in women
to 12.2% (6.4 to 18.0) for colorectal cancer in men, with those moving from the highest to lowest consumption levels gaining
about twice these averages. The expected reduction in GHG emissions was 0.45 tonnes CO2 equivalent/person/year, about 3% of the current total, giving a reduction across the UK population of 27.8 million tonnes/year.

Conclusions Reduced consumption of RPM would bring multiple benefits to health and environment.

Contributors All authors contributed to conception and design of the study. Data analysis and interpretation were performed by LMA and
JP. All authors contributed to manuscript preparation and have approved the submitted manuscript.

Funding Work contributing to this manuscript was carried out as part of the University of Cambridge MPhil in Public Health degree
(LMA and JNS, supervised by JWP); degrees were funded by the NHS East of England Multi-Professional Deanery.