An absence of El Nino may mean another low-on-snow winter--possibly cold and dry (except for Great Lakes cutters). Nothing is more frustrating than 10-below zero weather one day and a 35-degree rain the next.

My sixth sense tells me that we may be in for a severe winter--for cold, at least. What usually goes around (unseasonable cold in Europe over the past two winters), plus anomolous cold in the Great Plains/Rockies, lead me to believe that the Northeast may be in line for quite a cold streak.

With the lowest Tornado count on record continuing, one wonders if the trend or implecations of this Spring will have an affect on this coming winter. These troughs keep pushing down the dewpoints and squashing the heat build up.

Not a fan of analogs but does anyone want to throw some years out of how winter was during low tornado count years?

UPPER AIR...CLOSED LOW NORTH OF BETTLES WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THEEAST SIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH COVERING ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA. BYTUE MORNING THE LOW WILL BE NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND. THE LOW WILLCONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH ON TUE. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERNORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH BY FRI IT ISPROGGED TO BE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH AXIS NORTH TO SOUTHOVER THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGHWED THEN THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

NORTH SLOPE...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROMPRUDHOE BAY TO THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE INTERIOR WILL PICK UPSPEED THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO 997 MB NORTHOF BARTER ISLAND. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILLMAKE RAPID PROGRESS EASTWARD TO MCKENZIE BAY. THE LOW WILLGENERATE STRONG WEST WINDS ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST ANDADJOINING MARINE AREAS MON NIGHT AS COLD AIR IS PULLED INTO THEAREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY TUE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PICKS UPSPEED AND MOVES NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. MODELSCURRENTLY FAVOR PUTTING THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OVERTHE WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST...WHILE THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEACOAST MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST WINDS. PRUDHOE BAY AND AREA COULDEASILY ACCUMULATE 10 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE IT DIMINISHES TUEMORNING. THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST WILL LIKELY HAVE LESS THAN3 INCHES. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL GET 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH HEAVIESTAMOUNTS FROM HOWARD PASS EAST AND FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY WEST.ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE RESTOF THE NORTH SLOPE ZONES. ANOTHER LOW WILL INTENSIFY NEAR WRANGELISLAND TUE...THEN TRACK TO NEAR CAPE LISBURNE WED AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SIBERIA WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOBE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT. THE RIDGEWILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH TUE. THIS WILLMEAN DRY WEATHER AND DIMINISHING WINDS FOR THE WEST COAST THROUGHTUE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND ON TUE WILLTRACK SOUTH TO BE OVER THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA WED NIGHT. A COLDFRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL EXTEND FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TONOME AND SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE WED NIGHT.

INTERIOR...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTH OVERFORT YUKON TO DELTA AND TO THE ALASKA RANGE WILL STALL OVER THESOUTHEAST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT. THEAIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A FEWRECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXS MAY BE RECORDED TODAY FOR THECENTRAL TO WEST INTERIOR. BETTLES SET A RECORD LOW FOR THE DATEYESTERDAY SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FAIRBANKS MAY END UP WITH TWORECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY...ONE FOR THE LOW AND ANOTHER FOR THERECORD LOW-MAX TEMPERATURE. FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...UPSLOPING AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY SNOW...INPARTICULAR ABOVE 2000 FEET AND WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF. MODELS AREFORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE YUKONTERRITORY OF CANADA WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN UPSLOPING ALONG THENORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH FAIRBANKS LAST NIGHT AND IS NOWMOVING THROUGH NORTHWAY AND EAGLE. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO40 MPH AND HEAVY SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED THIS MORNING FROM DOTLAKE TO TOK AND SOUTH INTO THE ALASKA RANGE. TEMPERATURES ACROSSTHE INTERIOR HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BEHIND THE COLDFRONT AND WILL SET RECORD COLD READINGS AT MANY LOCATIONS.

I also favour a neutral ENSO year, with colder then normal SST's in the eastern ENSO regions. I have been looking at a few potential analog years although it is early of course. 1958/59 comes up as my top analog at the moment. Take a look at the similarities to the ECMWF SON SST forecast. Notice the +PDO spike and cool water in nino regions 1 and 2.BKaNtFzCAAAOZUH.png ( 133.25K )
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Here is the upper pattern in that year. Notice the two blocks across the globe. One is over greenland with the more dominant feature in the bering sea.99.235.97.37.135.14.27.43.png ( 14.12K )
Number of downloads: 2

Whats funny is we started tracking snow in October 2012 (with Sandy) all the way to May 2013 (historic plains). Thats 8 Months! Hard to think about next winter when there's still winter happening in the Northern Hem. Alaska next with records.

Whats funny is we started tracking snow in October 2012 (with Sandy) all the way to May 2013 (historic plains). Thats 8 Months! Hard to think about next winter when there's still winter happening in the Northern Hem. Alaska next with records.

on one side I think man....if this holds in to next winter....LOOK...OUT.

on the second hand.....by the time we round november-December this pattern will have been around for a solid 10 months and something will be bound to give/break on the torch side.

its definitely going to be interesting to start watching the LR enso models in says august/sept

on one side I think man....if this holds in to next winter....LOOK...OUT.

on the second hand.....by the time we round november-December this pattern will have been around for a solid 10 months and something will be bound to give/break on the torch side.

its definitely going to be interesting to start watching the LR enso models in says august/sept

Im not so sure what will happen but with a relatively weak nino/ nina situation going on and a slightly la nina look in the eastern sections it will be interesting to see the new pattern that sets up in the next month or two.

on one side I think man....if this holds in to next winter....LOOK...OUT.

on the second hand.....by the time we round november-December this pattern will have been around for a solid 10 months and something will be bound to give/break on the torch side.

its definitely going to be interesting to start watching the LR enso models in says august/sept

Fun stuff huh. I was thinking about something yesterday and keep in mind its a thought/theory of mine. If we look at a larger scale pattern aside from the usually "month to month" pattern, all these warm years we've been having eventually will be normal and then below normal. So does it feel like we're shifting to the normal part of a pattern change using a year to year scale?

Fun stuff huh. I was thinking about something yesterday and keep in mind its a thought/theory of mine. If we look at a larger scale pattern aside from the usually "month to month" pattern, all these warm years we've been having eventually will be normal and then below normal. So does it feel like we're shifting to the normal part of a pattern change using a year to year scale?

Anyway - I'm in the mood to create a winter chart now

I kind of feel the same way about the tornado season. the "law of averages" tends to (most of the time) play out except in those most extreme cases. And like you said...this may be the impending "averaging out" of warm side we've been seeing.