Jim Rogers 2012 Outlook: Pessimism With Scattered Crises

Typically limited to 90 second soundbite-gathering exercises on mainstream financial media, Australia's Finance News Network gives Jim Rogers the chance to discuss much more broadly his outlook not just for 2012 but beyond. Surprised by the false optimism he sees globally, he is not concerned that consensus is too bearish, and worries that the political pressure and central banker un-independence will inevitably lead to more and more money printing. We have discussed the kick-the-can thesis extensively but Rogers moves from the desire-to-print to the consequences while covering Ron Paul and the US election, the myth of government job creation, his potentially controversial view of the Euro (and separately the Euro-zone) - all the while reminding us that he expects at least another lost decade for the US and Europe as Japan ebbs ever lower. With a view to both his geographical location and his investments, the global commodity bull remains optimistic that a Chinese slowdown will not be the end of the Asian economy (as we see in Western economies) but is broadly short equities around the world while urging investors to own real assets. Summing up, Rogers notes "...the problems are going to continue to get worse until somebody solves the basic underlying problem of too much spending and too much debt... [governments and central bankers] are not going to do anything until there’s a serious crisis or semi-crisis."

Lelde Smits: OK Jim, so we’ve spoken about US and European debt, and a potential Chinese slowdown. How do you see global markets reacting in 2012?

Jim Rogers: Well I’m not optimistic for the most part about stock markets. I don’t own many stocks anywhere in the world. The only offset of the caveat for me is the fact that there is an election in the US, in Spain – sorry in France, a few other places. So whenever there are elections coming governments spend, spend, spend they throw money out the window to buy votes. So some people are going to be much better off in 2012. Is it enough to offset the world’s problems? I don’t think so, except in some sectors which will benefit.

So for myself, I’m short stocks around the world, I’m short American technology stocks, I’m short emerging market stocks and I’m short European stocks.

Lelde Smits: And what else are you buying Jim and why?

Jim Rogers: Well I own commodities, because if the world economy gets better Lelde, then commodities will do well because of the shortages. The lucky countries will continue to be lucky for a while. I own some currencies, which I mentioned, I’m worried about currency markets. I’m short stocks. I mentioned the things I’m short. So I anticipate problems in stock markets. If the world economy doesn’t get better, you’re not going to make money in stocks. But then central banks will print more money and when they print money Lelde, the thing to do is to own real assets.

I can 't think of two people more qualifited to be experts on "not knowing what the fuck you are talking about". I can't wait for the day that he takes a taxi cab through that gap in his teeth and her lips explode. That will be a great day for humanity.

Jimmy has been saying the same things for 30 years. He just wears this year's Perma-Bear Clothing Line. He looks like he's in a cheap hotel in Saigon. Still Saigon. Must be broke. And notice those wicked Mandarin eyebrows he sports. Wonder if he forces his daughters to sculpt their eyebrows.

I hope Jim is well because the videos lately make him look ill. This is a cheap web camera with no makeup but still. He lived in Mahattan and a lot of the hospitals there are shit but Singapore does not look to good for his health.

Yep. It's not that governments will wait for crises to do something. They will wait for crises and then do all of the worst things. They will raise taxes. They will make people with earned wealth seem like villains. They will preach that more government is the solution to our problems. In short, they will take any fucked up situation and they will fuck it up even worse. Just look at what these demons did in 2008i. They pursued not one long-term idea.

I think 2012 will be more look 2008. It seems that 2011 was a lot like 2007. Who can forget how many things were blowing up in 2007 ("subprime crisis") but didn't turn into full on disasters for more than a year. It seems like we had a lot of precursors to disaster in 2011 just like we did in 2007.

Good luck to all. Merry Christmas and make sure you have a happy new year. I have heard several friends bitch about how bad 2011 was. Of course they are the ones that continue to not plan for anything, not save for anything and blame others for their misfortune. Something tells me they won't like 2012 any better than 2011.

That Lelde Smits would be a good asset to have. Seems on the ball and is smokin' hott. Even if she's not as bright as she seems, you could turn her out and she'd still be a real money-maker. That looks like $10K/night tail.

She hypnotized me; whatever they're paying her, they're getting a bargain. It would be impossible to watch the competing channel. She's welcome to $5,000 if she wants to spend the night at my house and do a little play acting. What a surreal Fox.

Why is about slutty sex? Her interview hit the points with no appreciable BS. The interviewee seemed to be at ease with the manner of the pointed questions and came out with an informative piece within the time allowed.

My guess from her name is that she is a displaced Afrikaans speaking South African, or her family was.

I'll give her a solid plus vote for doing her job very well and being easy on the eyes.

Friends, health, happiness. I also enjoy good liquor, good food and sleep. Everything else is just something to facilitate the acquisition of these things.

I am guessing you are doing alright, Sudden. Some of my happiest moments in life were finding out how much I loved Leffe Blonde while in Paris a few years back. I am sure you can relate. Now go have a good piece of chocolate and be grateful for the ability to wave your arms like a maniac while screaming at the top of your lungs.

It's interesting to think that one day in the not too distant future, a hot shower on a winter day would be regarded as a luxury. Not saying it will turn out that way, but the thought has crossed my mind.

"I've been sitting around in my PJ's drinking cherry flavored diet Dr. Pepper and reading science fiction on my Kinde and I've noticed a lot of the villans are now described as "unelected bureaucrats" who are vile and corrupt. Thank God it is only light fiction and not mirroring the real world.

Here's a crisis nobody is watching and might destroy all that is left...

Taiwan election on January 14. Between the nationalists and the pro-China party. Right now they are tied. If the nationalists win, China might go for it and invade Taiwan (which they would have done last election according to Taiwanese-US intelligence but the pro-China party won)...

No way this starts WW3. Obama will let China take Taiwan, bet on it. Of course this will give the MSM and the sheeple a reason to cry for more military spending to ``protect our allies in Asia``... and that will mean Ron Paul will lose because he's ``soft on China``...

The National Debt has been increasing since we went off the Gold Standard. The only reason the National Debt went down at one point in History was because the Government took all of the Social Security Reserves and used them to pay down the Debt. Leaving Social Security with IOU's.

I think they will continue to print like Jim Rogers says. What else can they do?

If the Printing of Money raises inflation then wages usually rise and that increases Tax Revenues for the Federal Government and State Revenues thru Property Taxes.

The only thing that has been fouling up their plan is that Companies have been sending Jobs overseas. The Jobs overseas do not pay Income Tax in the United States to support OUR Government. At some point they have to find a way to bring those jobs back home so they can be taxed to create Tax income for the Government. The Corporations have been double dipping in that they operate in the US but have most of their workforce outside the US. This gives them ability to have lower wages for their workforce and increase profits for their shareholders and themselves. Plus, they do not pay any taxes on the profits from overseas operations overseas. This is robbing our Economy and the People of enormous tax revenue needed to operate the Government.

I used to worry about the Debt but I do not anymore. I stopped stockpiling food and am eating my reserves. I will not be afraid and will survive. If God forbid we have to go back to living like they did in the old days. So be it.

All of our Ancestors lived without Money, electricity, cars and all of our current conveniences. They lived and survived. None of us wants to go back to those times but many of our Ancestors before us lived very good and productive lives without the printing of money and inflation.

The only people that should be afraid are the people that live in large Citys as they will not be able to raise their own food, cut wood from their land for heat, raise chickens, etc. and live off the grid. They are the ones that will have a problem.

So, unless you can teach me how to make insulin in a tin can over a wood fire, my future is pretty much tied up with a functioning civilization.

As for our "ancestors" - yes, if you didn't die in childbirth, or by age 5 due to measles, mumps, chicken pox, TB, smallpox, cholera, flu, food poisoning, malaria, yellow fever, tetanus, or scurvy, and you were able to survive through floods, famines, and other natural disasters, yes, you had a chance to live until 65. But, since over 95% of the population of EVERYWHERE worked in agriculture until 1800, the chances were you were malnourished, that you could barely read or write, that you didn't own a thing except the clothes on your back and maybe a cow, and that you spent your whole life within 20 miles of where you were born.

That may be your idea of a "very good and productive" life; it sure isn't mine.

I'm sorry to hear about your diabetes. But in fact, most of the population for most of the span of humankind worked very little (the equivalent of 2 or 3 days a week), being foragers. See the book "Sex at Dawn" for a lot of information on this and even more interesting topics.

and what Jim failed to say was you figure out the last time for US prosperity: a la the Eisenhower years. You reinstate ALL policy line-by-line for the Eisenhower prosperity and if Jim gets kicked in the butt, too damn bad.

When you're in the econmic woods and lost, as the US is, you do a 180 and re-trace your steps to the location where you knew where you were going. Simple as that.

Where did he get that crumbly shirt ? Didn't his mom tell him not to wash his white shirts with his underwear ? While he gets a clean shirt....I wish he would get some fresh material....he's starting to repeat himself ! Maybe his little Singapore house maid is poisoning him ?

dont vote down Robot's comment, the guy looks like shit, but also maybe it is because he is usually wearing about $7,000 in threads...saw him on cnbc two weeks ago and was polished as always. BTW why is everyone giving RoboTrader shit lately. Robot trader is busy trading the vol, when the market was moving up in a straight fuckin line,,,robot trader had the best posts...lets just say his avatar was an appetizer

Jim is onto the right path, but he doesn't understand the elite and their plan. As the 100 year plan comes to an end, 2012 will be the year they crash the economy and 2013 will be when the massacres begin. They don't just want control of the financial world, they want control of the whole world.

a book on building wealth?, funny that was my FIN 203 book and then Bear failed a day after i bought it...if you want to build wealth, go read seekingalpha.com once you can afford an ipad. everyone there is a hedge fund manager, they must be brilliant. blah blah blah go have 'trader's block' somewhere else. BTW if "they" have that much power they wouldve done it in less than 99 years dipshit. eat+ipad.

The last couple of Rogers' interviews have been via Skype and a $29 webcam under a 60 watt bulb. Sophia Loren in her prime would have looked butt ugly behind that technology. The "talent", on the other hand, probably spent a half hour in make-up before taking her seat in front of a pair of $100K studio cameras under 10,000 watts of softened lighting.

LOL! Someone said she looks good because of makeup. You would be amazed at how good makeup can make many women look. Giselle Budchen was walking around with Tom Brady and their kids. She had no make up on. The women posters on The Daily Mail said he was prettier than she is. She is not pretty w/o make up.

Nobody moves to Singapore so their kids can learn Mandarin. There mut be more to the story than that. Jim is not looking too good, either.; like a hostage in a Talaban video. The thing is, his advice has been sound for over 30 years and still the engine keeps chugging along. Diversification is the key.

I don`t think that jim will go the way of vic niederhoffer- but I do think he took a bath on his Chinese stock holdings.
hummm but then again, unstoppable (at the time) vic got wiped out in 97 w the Asian crisis...

I do think asia is a really long term growth story, but there are going to be a lot of corpses along the way.