103 ballots: Gerhart leads, Ingram & Suh battle for #2

Well, we've crossed the threshold of 100 ballots - and things are beginning to take shape. As close as this is, I won't be comfortable with a projection until we're past 200 ballots.

It looks like Toby Gerhart is starting to put some distance between himself and the field. He's now at 41% of the vote. Mark Ingram and Ndamukong Suh are in a virtual tie at 37%. Colt McCoy is in fourth at 30%.

Gerhart continues to show strongly across four regions - picking up roughly a fifth of his overall total in the Far West, Southwest, Midwest, and South.

Comments

It is always interesting to look at the votes. There are so many hmer votes out there, it is a joke.

That said, in looking at how accurate you are, you need to analyze the absolute value of how much you are off over the last 7 years and not let the negatives offset the positives. In other words, you are off 2.7% and not 1.8%. Still not bad, though.

okay seriously...i dont know how Suh is not the most outstanding player....he has done way more than Toby or ingram...he is a DT with 82 tackles, while Alambamas DT has 29...and yet he still has the most first place votes and he's still in 2nd basically with ingram...just because he is a DT doesnt mean he shouldnt win the heisman...its not like Suh hasnt been doing it all year long either. he completly owned Texas OL and threw McCoy around like a ragdoll and out of the Hiesman race, and has put up so many insane numbers and has disrupted tons of plays even if he didnt make a tackle he still made a difference; troughout all these times he was being double and tripled teamed, but he just doesnt make tackles he also drops back into coverage with 10 breakups and an interception. Someone tell me of what he done how he isnt the most outstanding player of the 2009 season

okay seriously...i dont know how Suh is not the most outstanding player....he has done way more than Toby or ingram...he is a DT with 82 tackles, while Alambamas DT has 29...and yet he still has the most first place votes and he's still in 2nd basically with ingram...just because he is a DT doesnt mean he shouldnt win the heisman...its not like Suh hasnt been doing it all year long either. he completly owned Texas OL and threw McCoy around like a ragdoll and out of the Hiesman race, and has put up so many insane numbers and has disrupted tons of plays even if he didnt make a tackle he still made a difference; troughout all these times he was being double and tripled teamed, but he just doesnt make tackles he also drops back into coverage with 10 breakups and an interception. Someone tell me of what he done how he isnt the most outstanding player of the 2009 season

It looks like it's becoming an offensive (pun intended) beauty contest. Suh is the most dominating football player in many, many years. If this award is for the best college football player he should win hands down. If not, change the description of the award.

Suh is the best defensive player to strap on a helmet at the collegiate level ever. If he doesn't win this trophy it has lost all credibility. Alabama would probably still be in the title game without Ingram, and Toby plays in the PAC-10 with weak run defenses. If we had a competent QB we are 12-1 and this race isn't even close.

Anyone who doesn't believe this has either just landed on this planet or have never seen Suh play. Let me help you out. www.suh93.com

Suh is an excellent player, but I think you are getting a little carried away here. I can make similar arguments that Toby Gerhart is the best player. He leads the entire nation in rushing years AND TD's (by a fairly sizable margin over the next highest RB, I might add). He has done this in a tough Pac-10 this year (check the ranking, and more importantly the run defense rankings) and has done it on a team that is far from a traditional powerhouse, meaning he doesn't have the talent around him that many of these teams have. He has been at his best against the best opponents, and has been very consistent.

So while I am not taking anything away from Suh, you are displaying some serious tunnel vision here.

Both Toby and Suh have been doing their thing (affecting games for four quarters) throughout the entire season.

If Toby had a conference championship game against a marquee opponent in a lightly-contested time spot with national exposure, you bet there'd be a lot of Toby love going around. Suh has been artificially boosted above Toby by virtue of a) his opponent being Texas's anemic OL (how many fans love Mac McWhorter and Greg Davis?) and b) a conference championship game that the Pac-10 does not have.

BTW, where was Suh when Nebraska gave up 31 pts to Texas Tech? Toby did not touch the ball as often during the Stanford losses against Wake Forest and Cal, but looks like Tech's OL must have handled that Nebraska DL...

dont understand why a guy who has lead his team to 4 losses in a crappy conference is leading for the heisman. to me stats shouldn't override the importance of winning. should be a combo of both. that would be like giving Kobe the MVP award for averaging 30 pts a game in a year that his team doesn't even make the playoffs. makes no sense to me.

Suh was right there against Texas Tech, he was chasing Sheffield around the field so much he broke his foot after 5 sacks. The offense was the problem against Tech, check out your stats first considering the 259 total yards that Tech had was the lowest output ever for a Leach offense. You don't think that is playing defense?

I am huge Nebraska fan, and for people to say Suh should win hands down are not giving the respect Gerhart, Ingram, and Spiller deserve. The Heisman could really go to Suh, Ingram, or Gerhart and I would be happy with their decision. If the trophy went to McCoy or Tebow, then obviously thats total BS. Anyway, i hope Suh wins the Heisman, but if not, at least they are recognizing one of the best defensive players to play college football in a long time.

Does Gerhart have 2.8x the number of rushing yards as the second best RB in college? That's what we should expect this year if he wants to compete with Suh. Nebraska has no offense. None. And they are a bad kickoff away from beating McCoy and Texas because Texas couldn't handle Suh. Are you kidding me? Too bad Stanford couln't get the Holiday bowl. He could come experience a bit of what CJ Spiller experienced last year in the Gator Bowl. Suh makes they trophey boys look like they need to apply for a 6th year of eligibility.

What makes you think that Suh won't win, he has 20 more points at this moment than any of the other candidates and he is being highly touted by virtually everyone at ESPN and S.I. to be #1 on their Heisman ballots. Just because there is a discrepency in the vote regions right now doesn't mean that it will remain throughout. Come on!

Probably because the projections take regional biases into account. Suh might be ahead right now, but there might be more Far West and South votes to be counted than Midwest and Southwest.

I really think Suh should win this. Credit to both Ingram and Gerhart, but I've not seen a player as dominant as Suh for a long time. He's been doing it since the middle of last season, but he just started to get recognition as he continued disrupt offenses while going up against double and triple teams, against all-American linemen and big-time QBs/RBs.

It's really shameful that he's being left off certain ballots. If he wins the most first place votes and doesn't win overall, it would really be a travesty.

If it takes 3 or more offensive players to slow Suh down and he still sacks outstanding QBs, blocks their passes, intercepts their passes and runs them in for touchdowns?? Good god almighty, think a little out of the box.

Vic, you're a moron. Have you watched any football this year? The Suh love has been there all year if you pick up a newspaper or flip on a TV from time to time. Heck, College Gameday did a whole segment on him. Compare these stats and tell me who is the best defensive tackle in the country. Not even a contest.

One poster asked where Suh was all year - as if this late surge isn't enough for him to win. No offense, but the question is, where have YOU been all year? Suh has been absolutely man-handling teams and OL all season long. He absolutely changes the outcome of games like no other DT this decade and beyond (probably back to Selmon).

That said, I think Gerhart is a quality choice and won't complain if he wins. If McCoy or Tebow are the winner, the award becomes an even bigger joke. I will say, this is fun - and it took all the media darlings to screw up before the race truly became "open."

How is it Suh has 20 more TOTAL points than Gerhart, but this site has him in 3rd? He's on as many ballots and is running away with the first place votes. Is this an error or mistake? Or is this really what this site is projecting even though Suh currently has 15% more TOTAL points than anyone else? Can you please explain? Thank You!

As a NU fan I obviously want Suh to win the award. No one dominated their position on the field like he did. If he does not win it, my second choice would be Gerhart. That kid is a stud that I would love to have on my team.

Suh is hands down the best player in the country, and the difference between him and the next candidate is a mile long. He will absolute make NFL linemen look stupid next year and could be the best defensive player of all time at the collegiate level. I wouldn't go as far as to say the same thing in the NFL, but i wouldn't be surprised if he ended his NFL career being the best ever. I'm not a husker fan, but HE IS A MONSTER

I'm not going to argue that "Suh is the best defensive player to strap on a helmet at the collegiate level ever" is a bit of an exaggeration. However, it is not that far-fetched. If you watch him, he is simply amazing. Mark May was quoted today as saying that Suh is the best college player he has seen in 25 years... since a man named Reggie White donned a Tennessee uniform. That's pretty high praise from a football journalist who probably knows a lot more about the sport than any of us.

I have been watching college football for a long time. I am a Sooner..and have seen some greats...Tommie Harris, Gerald McCoy...but Suh is at another level. I have only seen one other at that level and that was LeRoy Selmon. Suh absolutely should win the Heisman. Gerhart is great....but Suh is a once in a lifetime type of talent.

Unfortunately SUH will not win this award and it just goes to show how much of a joke this award is becoming. There is not a better football player in the country. I like the post earlier about there being lots of good DT's around. There might be but they are playing in the NFL!! I don't know how we got to this point of only giving this award to QB's, RB's or WR's but it is disgraceful. I will say that since the voters will not allow the BEST to be rewarded, I'll pull for Ingram since he showed up in the BIG game, unlike Tebow and McCoy. I like Toby and would be OK with him winning. It doesn't really matter, I guess, since the guy that should win it won't win it!!! Great year Suh and you should have a great collection of awards by the end of the year, to bad it won't be the one that gets all the publicity.

For all the Nebraska fans out there. No matter what anyone else says on this blog just remember that we were the ones watching every single game....watching Suh fight through double teams and triple teams and still getting to the RBs and QBs. We know how good he is and for him even to be considered for the Heisman is an honor. No defensive tackle can do what Suh does game in game out. Anyone else on here that cant give credit to Suh has no idea what they are talking about. Mayb they should find a way to watch all the games that we did. His stats were amazing for a DT and the stats dont even say it all. Just remember that for any Suh haters out there.

I see your point about the team's won/loss record, but I have never agreed with that line of reasoning. Why does it matter if the other 23 starters on your team are all terrible? In this case, he has elevated the play of his defense to amazing heights. What is he supposed to do about an offense that can only put up 106 total yards. He gave them great field position all game on Saturday giving them the ball in field goal range multiple times. He even lined up at fullback a couple of times to try and help. Maybe Pelini should have let Suh take a couple of snaps and run the option.

From Heisman.com, "The Heisman Memorial Trophy annually recognizes the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity."

It says nothing about how good your team is. I think if you can accomplish what he has this year with an offense as pathetic as the Huskers', he should be given even more consideration for the Heisman.

82 tackles, 19.5 tackles for loss, 12 sacks, 10 passes broken up, 19 QB hurries, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble, 3 blocked kicks, all while being double and triple teamed all season long. Unbelievable! The most dominant player in college football and most deserving even if he plays in the trenches and on the wrong side of the ball. And he is very fun to watch. DID YOU SEE THE BIG XII CHAMPIONSHIP GAME? Clearly the best player on the field including Heisman hyped Colt McCoy who he made look bad!

As of now, with 103 votes in, I think they have the top three correct. But in the wrong order! I don't know how anyone, in a true objective ballot, can keep Suh from being their first place vote. It makes no sense. Yes Gerhart is awesome! I love him. But there is NO WAY he's has done more than Suh. Frankly, Ingram is a great player but he is a third place guy at best. And for some people to say they are only talking about Suh because of Saturday night and simply idiots. They obviously do not watch much college football. My vote would be: 1) Suh, 2) Gerhart, 3) Ingram

if you look at the stats, suh literally has terrence cody's stats more than doubled. terrence cody will prob be the other dt on the AA team.

82 tackles and 12 sacks probably doesn't seem remarkable on its own and there might be an olb with those stats somewhere. but that is insane for a dt. dorsey was in the top 10 for heisman with 65 and 6.

also, texas' ol has two all americans on it, including the center who suh was lined up against.

finally, ttu's win over nu has everything to do with sheffield turning into jesus for a game. they have an offense predicated on getting rid of the ball early, which plays well against nu. but sheffield repeatedly threaded the needle between double teams, etc. in that game. it was one of the best qb performances of the year.

the way i see it, suh has had three "non-AA" type games this year. to me, this is consistency similar to gerhart's, who has only two sub-100 games.

You guys don't understand what this site does. It's an educated guess. They find out from Heisman voters what their votes were. They then take regional bias into account. Most of the time voters will vote in their region because they see that player most of the time. They than figure out who is PROJECTED to have the most votes.

For example, many of the early votes are from writers in Big XII country who see Suh play week in and week out.

The Great State of Idaho casts it's Heisman ballot for the greatest Defensive Tackle in the College game in the past 20 years, incredibly leading his team in tackles and sacks from the Tackle position over the past two years, Ndamukong "House of Spears" Suh, your 2009 Heisman Winner.

The Big XII Championship game was great but people truly watching know this has been going on for two solid two years.

Toby! The vote is for most outstanding college football player. He is certainly the one. He carried the team most of the season. PAC 10 is not a weak conference. The 5th team in Pac10, USC, beated Buckeyes. Oregon only lost to Boise State.

Having seen the Nebraska-Texas game this past Saturday....OMG....Suh was dominating. Being from Virginia, I saw him play against Virginia Tech and thought he was good, but what he did to Texas was unbelievable. I do not see how he could not be the BEST football player this year. Nebraska's offense was terrible (or the would have beaten Va Tech). Suh was BEAST. If the Heisman symbolizes the best college player....I have to say, I've never seen anyone as good as Suh.

Apparently, you haven't been paying attention. Suh has been getting plenty of love all season. The Heisman talk started in earnest after the Missouri game some eight weeks ago.

And no, there aren't a lot of D tackles like Suh. Look at the Texas film - show me film of another D tackle playing like Suh. He tackled Colt McCoy with one arm while being held by a blocker! He throws 300+ lb. O-lineman around like rag dolls. He is freakishly strong, even for a 300 pounder. He has a motor to match Grant Wistrom's, but more talent and power. He runs backs down from side-line to side-line. He tackles RBs 20 yards down field. He blocks passes, block field goals, intercepts passes, has caught a touchdown pass (last year). And he does all these things as an interior lineman, most of whom my 7 year old granddaughter could outrun. Find me another one.

He also has a nasty streak - given a choice between tackling you and throwing you down, he'll pick the throw down. Talk to Colt McCoy.

Mel Kiper doesn't have him at the top of his draft list for his good looks. Bo Pelini coached Glenn Dorsey at LSU. I'll bet my house that if pressed, he'd say there is no comparison - Suh can do things Dorsey never dreamed of doing...

One writer on the national scene, said he can only think of two other D tackles in history who could dominate a game from the defensive side like Suh - Reggie White and Howie Long - and he was referring to Reggie and Howie as PROs, therefore he is including both college and PRO players. Can't remember the writers name but he writes for either Sport Illustrated or ESPN.

I remember one broadcaster - a former NFL QB - who said while talking about Suh, that in his NFL career he never knew the name of an opposing DT, let along game planned around him. But that he'd have to if Suh was facing him.

I watched the BIG XII Championship game and thought a Nebraska defensive guy had a good night. I noticed Colt McCoy looked like he was about to become the victim in a horror film because of that Suh. I then did some more searching on his website and WWWOOOOOWWWWWWW. For those that have apparently been living under a rock like me.....suh93.com

I truly believe that Suh gave McCoy a reality check in the Big 12 Championship. I think the football world found out that McCoy is certainly not as good as Suh. The announcers of the game were even saying that it was "Unfair" that anyone had to try and block Suh. Suh owned McCoy and the Texas offensive line. I think if Suh was on a 12-0 team...he would win hands down. I just checked Nebraska's schedule and results....if they had an offense, they would have ended up with only one loss (Texas Tech), but in that game the Nebraska defense held the Red Raiders to their lowest offensive output in Coach Mike Leach's career at Texas Tech.
Every should give credit where credit is due and get off your "home team" bandwagons. Suh is a BEAST.

In regard to Tech, they only gave up 24 points- the offense made a horrendous fumble for a t.d. in the first quarter. Not only that, Tech- one of the top offenses in the country (if Sheffield doesn't get hurt and Potts get back in they win more games, Sheffield is lights out; can't believe he started the season as the back-up)- consistently had great field position that first half. The secondary gave up a few huge plays.

Second half? They gave up one score and like 40 or 50 yards. That's extremely impressive, and Suh was a huge part of the turnaround.

FWIW, I think Gebhardt will win and he is great. However, I think the best two players are actually Suh and Spiller.

My biggest problem with the Heisman is coming true right now. Apples to Oranges. Suh vs Gerhart. There's no common denominator, here. You can't ocmpare a RB to a DT. QB to RB or WR is easier, but when you try to gauge offensive players against defensive players, there's not a lot you can say. It's so much easier for everyone to SEE the contributions of offensive players, so that guys like Suh get lost in the mix, because you don't hear the announcer screaming about him every time.
In all honesty, Ingram should win. His team's going to the Championship, and McCoy just doesn't have the stability. Gerhart is good, but it's not the Cardinal vs the Longhorns or Tide.

suh and gerhart are both deserving of this award. They have both been somewhat compromised my their teams record, but that is not what this award is about. They have both been completely dominant against very tough opponents this year. And anyone who says the pac-10 is a weak conference doesn't know what their talking about. The SEC and Big 12 stack their schedules with 2 or 3 tough in conference teams and then add in extra games against teams like Elam. The pac-10 runs on a round robin shift, so every pac-10 team plays 9 in-conference games, and 6 or 7 of the teams have been ranked at some point this season. Their are just too many good teams in the conference, so it is near impossible for a pac-10 team to go undefeated like a Florida team which plays the like of Charleston Southern, Troy and Florida Intl.

I can't argue with Suh or Gerhart winning - they are the top 2 by far in my opinion. Suh is very dominating and can take over a game and from his position - that is a very rare trait. If Gerhart wore any number of jerseys besides a Stanford jersey we wouldn't even be having a discussion - the trophy would be his.

One observation from posts regarding the great Pac 10 run defense - if most of the teams in the conference throw the ball all the time it is pretty obvious that defenses won't give up many rushing yards since no one ever runs the ball - except Gerhart of course.

I think the biggest issue here has already been explained but the offensive-minded horde have yet to acknowledge it: the fact that while Ingram and Gerhart are amazing at their positions, how many other like them have passed through the years? How many other great, I mean great!!! RBs can you name without even thinking about it?

Now, think about how many DTs you can think of that are even remotely talked about the way Suh is. Think about how many other DTs completely dominate a game defensively - by himself no less!

Someone said it before, but I'll repeat it here:

RBs come and go, great ones and mediocre alike. But this man, Ndamukong Suh is Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretsky, Tiger Woods, Roger Federer, you name the sport and it's unmatched parallel. Ndamukong is a once-in-a-lifetime force of nature and I hope you all are watching his first season in the NFL because it's going to be something special.

For anybody that hasen't had the chance like I have to watch this Big guy play every week just go see http://www.suh93.com/ I haven't seen Toby like alot of you people have and I trust that he is very worthy. I just know that this SUH is one of the best players that I have seen. Being a Nebraska fan I have seen some great defensive players and he is one of the best. Go SUH!!

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So far, so good. In 2002, we projected Carson Palmer as the winner, and Brad Banks as the runner-up based on 127 actual ballots declared. We had the top five correct (though we had Larry Johnson at #5, not #3.) 2002 details.

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In 2006, we found 136 actual declared ballots that included 353 votes and we projected correctly the top three finalists in order - Troy Smith, Darren McFadden, Brady Quinn. 2006 details.

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