If same-sex marriage proponents return to the ballot in 2010
to try to repeal Proposition 8 and lose again, the damage done to the larger
LGBT community would be "devastating," a key No on Prop 8 member told
the Bay Area Reporter this week.

In a wide-ranging interview Monday, March 30, Kate Kendell,
a member of the No on Prop 8 executive committee, reiterated what she said at
February's San Francisco town hall meeting: she will not take on a leadership
role in any future ballot fight. But Kendell, who is executive director of the
National Center for Lesbian Rights, was clear that the community must step up
on a number of fronts if a second ballot fight is to be waged.

And she suggested, based on what happened during the Prop 8
fight, that 2010 is too early to launch a repeal effort.

Any ballot fight would come only if the California Supreme
Court upholds Prop 8. Kendell bluntly said last week in Dallas at a meeting of
an LGBT chamber of commerce that, "We're going to lose," according to
a front page story in the Dallas Voice.

While noting that Dallas Voice news editor John Wright "caught me in a more pessimistic
moment," she acknowledged what virtually every other legal analyst has
said since the justices heard oral arguments last month: the court likely will
uphold Prop 8.

"Given that I hoped and believed we could defeat Prop 8
at the ballot, I'm playing this very close to my chest and not getting my hopes
up," she said, adding that for the court to uphold Prop 8 would
"require a torturous ruling" on the part of the justices, who last
year issued a landmark decision legalizing same-sex marriage in California.

Prop 8 eliminated that right.

Little change in public opinion

In terms of work that needs to be done, areas Kendell
identified are: public education, rural outreach, faith outreach, and outreach
to communities of color by LGBTs of color. All of those cost money and require
an infrastructure to be in place, she noted.

"We don't have the depth of resources to execute all of
those need areas. To do that, to run a grassroots, viral [campaign] in 18
months is a multimillion-dollar proposition," Kendell said, referring to a
timeline for a possible 2010 ballot measure.

While many new activists have become engaged since the
passage of Prop 8, and many new groups have formed, two recent statewide polls
show voters are almost exactly where they were on same-sex marriage as during
last year's campaign: about 48 percent support same-sex marriage and 47 percent
oppose it. Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, said those numbers
haven't changed much since last November.

Kendell said she would subtract 5 percentage points from
supporters of same-sex marriage in the recent surveys.

"People lie," she said. "We're at 42 percent
or 43 percent. We could claw our way to 48 percent but we never get past 48
percent."

The question, she said, is "How to get to 50 percent
plus one."

Already, two ballot measures have been cleared by the
secretary of state's office for signature gathering. One would take the state
out of the marriage business entirely, replacing the word "marriage"
with the term "domestic partner." The two young straight men behind
that effort have said that they are aiming for the June 2010 ballot.

The second measure would repeal Prop 8. Its backers, a new
group called Yes on Equality, are not yet gathering signatures and are unsure
whether to aim for 2010 or 2012.

Both initiatives need nearly 700,000 valid signatures by
August 17.

Kendell was unsure about those efforts.

"The 64 million dollar question is when do we go back.
No doubt if we lose in court, the only relief is to repeal Prop 8 at the
ballot," Kendell said. "Few people are more anxious that happen than
me, but having gone through the draining, rigorous Prop 8 campaign I have a
better inkling of what it is going to take and in this economy, I worry that we
still do not see enough of actual public education conversations that have to
happen. We just haven't had enough time."

"That's not going to happen in the hurricane of a
campaign," Kendell added.

Kendell said that about 350,000 voters need to change sides
in the same-sex marriage fight. But those people "are everywhere" in
the state, she said.

"They could be your neighbors or live 300 miles
away," Kendell said. "We need an almost precinct by precinct
pre-campaign campaign that puts same-sex couples and families on their
doorstep, in their papers, and in their church bulletins dozens of times."

There's also the matter of the cost of another statewide
campaign.

"And, the sheer amount of money the community would
need to invest, yet again, is staggering," she added.

The No on 8 campaign raised about $43.3 million last year.
The Yes on 8 side raised slightly less, $39.9 million.

"If [repeal] is on the ballot in 2010 and we lose
again, my sense is, as a non-expert, it would be devastating," Kendell
said.

What to do?

Kendell said that she has had many people say to her,
"What's the plan?" She said there are no easy answers.

"The reason a blueprint is not easily emerging is
because the community is so disparate and does not coalesce around any key
leader – and I love that," she said. "It's not an easy question
to answer. Almost anything you come up with: public education, rural outreach,
faith outreach, communities of color outreach cost money, need infrastructure,
and require a plan."

LGBT organizations are woefully underfunded compared to
anti-gay groups like Focus on the Family, which has an annual budget of $141
million. By contrast, the country's largest LGBT organization, the Human Rights
Campaign, has an annual budget of $41.4 million, according to a recent Washington
Blade survey of the top gay groups.
Kendell's NCLR has a budget of $4.8 million. The Blade
survey also listed salaries for the executives of
those organizations.

"I make a great salary," Kendell said of her
$175,000 base pay, "but we as a movement have a very pale
infrastructure."

LGBT organizations have never had as much money, and only
about 10 percent – or more like 7 percent – of LGBT people support
any LGBT organization, she said.

"That disparity has to be alleviated, but not from the
folks barely making ends meet, but by well-off LGBT folks," Kendell said.

"Our ability to pass creates complacency," Kendell
added, referring to how some LGBT people are not out and go about their lives
without contributing to gay organizations or being active in the community.

Some bright signs Kendell sees are grassroots activists such
as Robin McGehee in Fresno. She is organizing "Meet in the Middle," a
rally for national LGBT equality that is scheduled for the Saturday after the
court's ruling in downtown Fresno, the midpoint of the state. Another new
activist is Kip Williams of One Struggle, One Fight, which just wrapped up its
march for equality from Berkeley to Sacramento. Those are "terrific
efforts," Kendell said.

"That is exactly the leadership and energy we
need," she noted. "We need a deep bench of that and we need it in
every community."

Kendell also pointed to Equality California's recent
decision to hire former Mass Equality executive director Marc Solomon to be its
marriage director. Solomon, who is based in Los Angeles, started work this
week.

"That's the kind of step that is right, but Marc's not
enough. We need Marc plus 50 organizers and they need 20 local folks to
deploy," she said.