Don’t look now, but the Cardinals are reeling. They’ve dropped four straight, losing Sunday against Milwaukee, then were swept right out of Chavez Ravine 3-0 by the Dodgers. The skid puts St. Louis 1.5 games back of Cincinnati, who’s also come back to earth in the last week.

Meanwhile, our Cubs, 7.5 games out, have lost 7 of 10 as part of its 3-6 road trip through the division’s cellar, which, was a measuring-stick trip for Chicago. Beat the bottom feeders and you’re back in the hunt. Lose, as they did, and well, just be thankful the Reds and Cards haven’t shut the door completely.

Despite the recent setbacks, however, Cincinnati and St. Louis are roughly on pace to win 90 games….the Cubs just 75. This means Chicago must conquer the unlikely task of going 63-39 in the season’s final 102 games to compete. That’s a .617 winning percentage for a club currently playing below .500, and mighty rough water to navigate through the final 3 1/2 months.

The Cardinals…keepers of the best record in the NL…and on pace to win more than 100 games…will win the NL Central crown.

At least, that’s according to AccuScore, which calculates the precise probability teams have of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series.

St. Louis grades out at a 97.7% chance of winning the division, which indeed appears accurate given the Cards avoid major injuries to Pujols, Holliday or Carpenter.