Roundball Mining Company » Washington Wizardshttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com
We'll move the earth for a title!Tue, 03 Mar 2015 18:18:08 +0000en-UShourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1Rapid Reaction: Denver Nuggets 115 Washington Wizards 117http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2015/01/25/rapid-reaction-denver-nuggets-115-washington-wizards-117/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2015/01/25/rapid-reaction-denver-nuggets-115-washington-wizards-117/#commentsMon, 26 Jan 2015 00:00:00 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=9349The Nuggets played well for most of the game, but as has become such a familiar story, they came up short when it mattered most. It took an overtime period to decide it, and Ty Lawson had a chance to send it into a second overtime, but his 15-footer, off of a stolen inbounds pass, came up just short.

Kenneth Faried, PF39 MIN | 4-10 FG | 1-4 FT | 11 REB | 1 AST | 0 STL | 2 BLK | 0 TO | 9 PTS | -7 +/-Another pretty standard Faried night. He missed two clutch free throws late that could have won the game for the Nuggets in regulation, but also came up with a huge block on the next play to block Pierce’s game-winning shot attempt.

Wilson Chandler, SF38 MIN | 8-19 FG | 0-0 FT | 9 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 1 TO | 20 PTS | +13 +/-Very active defensively and on the boards. Not a great shooting night, but found a way to score as he usually does. I like the fact that he took 19 shots, and he should continue to be aggressive.

Brian Shaw
Short rotation (which is good). Called some smart timeouts, especially one early in the 4th, that helped slow a run by the Wizards. Don’t understand having Darrell Arthur finish at the 5-spot when he wasn’t really contributing in any meaningful way. At some point, he has to start giving Nurkic some minutes in clutch situations.

Three Things We Saw

Good effort given all night. There were no stretches in the game where they appeared lethargic. Seemed like they were all in, and desperately wanted the win.

Still too many defensive lapses, especially late in the game. There’s no way Kris Humphries should be scoring buckets that easily.

Lawson showing no ill-effects from recent adversity. He played lights-out and definitely held his own against John Wall.

There’s no way they shouldn’t have had a rim protector in the game late in the fourth quarter and in overtime. It is definitely time for Nurkic to start seeing some crunch time minutes.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2015/01/25/rapid-reaction-denver-nuggets-115-washington-wizards-117/feed/55Wizards reportedly interested in Andre Millerhttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/02/11/wizards-reportedly-interested-in-andre-miller/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/02/11/wizards-reportedly-interested-in-andre-miller/#commentsTue, 11 Feb 2014 18:23:38 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=8412Zach Lowe of Grantland and ESPN’s Marc Stein are both reporting that the Washington Wizards have taken an interest in trading for the estranged Nuggets point guard Andre Miller.

Whether this interest will bring a trade to fruition or not remains to be seen. Even a cursory glance over the Wizards’ roster makes it seem unlikely that Denver could find a satisfactory deal without the involvement of a third team.

On the bright side, however, at the very least it can now be said that tangible interest in Miller has surfaced, and this could potentially — even if only minimally — help to buoy Andre’s trade value.

It’s been over a month since his dispute with Brian Shaw and the coaching staff rendered him persona non grata in the Nuggets organization. And with Nate Robinson out for the season, and Ty Lawson most likely out for longer than the team is letting on (caveat: that’s speculation on the part of your friendly RMC writer who fractured his rib last year), Denver appears likely to be a team without a point guard for at least a few weeks. Clearing Dre’s roster spot has now been elevated to an even more urgent concern for Tim Connelly and Josh Kroenke.

As always, stay tuned right here to Roundball Mining Company for further developments and analysis.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/02/11/wizards-reportedly-interested-in-andre-miller/feed/26Rapid Reaction: Denver Nuggets 75 Washington Wizards 74http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/12/09/rapid-reaction-denver-nuggets-75-washington-wizards-74/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/12/09/rapid-reaction-denver-nuggets-75-washington-wizards-74/#commentsTue, 10 Dec 2013 02:28:01 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=7990Nate Robinson came up big as the Nuggets clawed their way to victory in DC with three game-saving stops in a row. It was one of the uglier affairs of the season featuring 20 turnovers and a Kenneth Faried benching in the second half, but Denver hung around and did just enough to come away with a win.

Like he has all season, Hickson provided exactly what we expected and nothing more. Although he was at a size disadvantage Hickson was so thoroughly outclassed by Marcin Gortat it was hard to keep him on the floor. His individual numbers were okay but he didn’t get any easy baskets and provided no rim protection whatsoever. Hickson and Faried continue to be a disastrous combo on the defensive end.

The hardest grade of the night by far. On one hand, he returned valiantly from a second-half benching to grab what could have been the game-saving rebound. On the other hand he missed two huge free throws and was an unfocused disaster in the first half. Like Faried’s season it was an up-and-down affair where the hustle and energy was just enough to cover up the glaring weaknesses.

The first half seemed like the beginning of his first A-effort in a long while as Chandler came out blazing, hitting his first five shots from the field. He cooled off and drifted for much of the second half but redeemed himself with a big block and some solid crunch-time defense.

Miller looked out-of-sync from the get-go, fumbling the ball in transition and missing a lot of routine passes he normally converts. Defensively he wandered a bit too much and lost shooters on the perimeter a lot. It was nothing special from Miller on a night where Denver was looking for him to step up and be more assertive.

Foye had a tough assignment being asked to cover the dynamic John Wall most of the night. Given the mismatch he did a pretty admirable job while stepping up in more of a facilitator role with 5 assists. Foye’s offense would have benefited from better team ball movement but he mostly avoided bad shots and made a crucial second half three to get Denver back in it.

Arthur had a tough time getting on the floor as Washington favored smaller lineups with perimeter-oriented forwards off the bench. He looked slow off his feet against guys like Vesely and Chris Singleton and struggled to keep Booker and Gortat off the boards. The matchups weren’t in his favor and DA didn’t look sharp, at one point passing up a shot to try a lob pass which missed badly.

He is getting more settled into a role and it shows through his much improved confidence and better shot selection. He often tries to do too much when he puts the ball on the floor but Hamilton mostly stuck to spot-up threes and rebounding where he is very effective. He could be a little steadier throughout the game but with this kind of production it’s hard to complain.

Just not good. Randolph is capable of putting up stats with his effort but he often gives it all back with poor decision-making a lack of good fundamentals, especially on defense. Unfortunately nothing about his career says he’s ready to provide reliable rotation minutes and Shaw found that out tonight.

He did not go up against Gortat, and even against a severely depleted Washington front court Mozgov couldn’t stay on the floor. His big-rebound games earlier in the trip look like an anomaly as the poor-rebounding, foul-prone big man once again struggled to look respectable in a significant role.

You are going to get a few bad shots with Nate and there’s no way to change that. Nate took his fair share of head-scratchers but was really the only Nugget who had it going and actually wanted the ball. Denver doesn’t turn it around in the third quarter and probably doesn’t even break double-digits without his constant aggressiveness (Denver won the third 18-15).

Hard to make the case that he actually deserves to keep getting minutes. His confidence looks shot and trying to force feed him a bit role seems like an experiment that has long run its course.

Brian Shaw

Down his best player, Shaw might have coached his best game of the season. It was a subpar, sloppy effort from a lethargic group that just couldn’t seem to figure it out. Shaw kept plugging away, benching Faried but still having the wherewithal to switch things up again when that didn’t work. Shaw got the most out of an off-night from his players, pulling the plug on Hickson, Mozgov and Randolph appropriately and making sure he got rebounding into the game when the Nuggets needed it. He set his ego aside and did whatever he could to win.

Two Things We Saw

Denver has to do a better job keeping teams off the offensive glass. Gortat is a handful for anyone but Vesely and Booker also had their way with the much bigger and deeper Nuggets. Washington corralled 30.8% of their misses and it’s becoming pretty routine for teams to have 30+ OREB% against Denver. The Faried-Hickson starting frontcourt gives up too many boards while not really making up for it in any way on defense. This is a season-long trend.

Denver got just 34 points in the paint and had 22 turnovers for 19 Washington points. Brian Shaw has talked about wanting to play hard-nosed basketball in the half-court but it’s become glaringly obvious the Nuggets just aren’t built to play that style. They are reliant on guard penetration for everything with bigs who don’t post up or draw fouls and can’t catch the ball on the move. Shaw often has no choice but to go small in order to get the offense going.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/12/09/rapid-reaction-denver-nuggets-75-washington-wizards-74/feed/45Summer League Recap: Wizards annihilate Nuggetshttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/07/16/summer-league-recap-wizards-annihilate-nuggets/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/07/16/summer-league-recap-wizards-annihilate-nuggets/#commentsWed, 17 Jul 2013 05:48:25 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=6957The preliminary round of summer league concluded on Tuesday night, with the Golden State Warriors clinching a top seed and first-round bye in the upcoming tournament. On the other end of the spectrum were the Denver Nuggets, who went into the evening ranked dead last in the seeding and further cemented themselves there after getting thrashed by the Washington Wizards.

Jan Vesely did most of the damage for the Wizards, scoring 18 points on 11 shots in just 21 minutes. Washington had little trouble establishing a comfortable lead midway through the first quarter and were able to put it on cruise control the rest of the night.

On the Denver side of things, it was a nightmare. There were glimmers of hope throughout the Nuggets’ first two double-digit losses in summer league, but the latest affair only confirmed what the standings already said: the Nuggets can’t get anything going and have been the worst performing club of the preliminary round by far.

With the losses mounting and the offense following the defense into a state of utter disarray, the Nuggets did their best to stay positive and upbeat. Coach Lester Conner delivered a lengthy speech following the game and seemed confident the Nuggets would be able to stick together and shake off the three big losses heading into tournament play.

“We’ve got to show that we can handle pressure” said Conner after another blowout loss. “23 turnovers for 35 points is way too much. We told the guys at the beginning of the game and the end of the game don’t let our offense dictate how our defense plays. And the last few games we’ve been giving teams fifty plus percent [shooting] from the floor.”

Conner spoke in broad terms when asked what was the number one thing Denver needed to work on heading into tournament play. “Execution on both ends of the floor” he said. “We’re not getting any execution on the defensive schemes and we can’t get into any of our offensive sets.”

There are no easy fixes for a team struggling in so many different areas.

Throughout all of the losing, Quincy Miller continues to show glimpses of a promising all-around game and told me he feels confident the team will be able to stick together and play with confidence in the upcoming games. When asked if a lack of experience and the loss of Jordan Hamilton were wearing on the team, Quincy said the Nuggets’ biggest problems were simpler than that.

“We ain’t trying to make no excuses. We should have played better. We gotta play hard, that’s the bottom line. If we play hard it’ll make up for a lot our mistakes.”

Miller and Evan Fournier were the lone Nuggets to score in double figures. Fournier led the team with 12 points on 9 shots and Quincy finished with 11 points and 4 rebounds in 24 minutes.

Tournament Update

The Nuggets are the #22 seed and are schedule to play #11 seeded New Orleans in round one on Wednesday afternoon. The game is scheduled for 3:00pm in the Cox Pavilion.

Quincy enjoys physical battle with Vesely

Coach Lester Conner continued to experiment with playing Quincy Miller at multiple positions. The long and versatile Miller started at the four again but spent more time at the three than he did in the first two contests. Miller was one of the few Nuggets able to get some defensive pressure on Vesely with his length, but Jan had a great game and made some pretty difficult shots.

Quincy displayed some toughness and a mean streak in a physical matchup with Vesely, which he seemed to enjoy. When asked about the chippiness early on, Quincy replied “I think Vesely’s a great player. He’s older than me, but I’m not gonna let you punk me — that’s never gonna happen. We was going at each other and that was pretty fun.”

Due to the fact that he was struggling with an injury through most of this game, it wouldn’t be too fair to be overly critical of Gallo’s performance. If anything, he deserves props for nobly trying to help his team by playing through the pain. All of that said, he really wasn’t able to do a whole lot on either end of the court, though it’s probably more on Karl for sending him out when it may have been better not to.

The entire Nuggets frontcourt was a disappointment tonight, and unfortunately Faried was a big part of the reason for that. He’s usually one of the guys who jump starts his team with infectious energy, but in this game he was more like the invisible man. And nowhere was that more apparent than on defense, where is rebounding was frankly inept (only four for the game), and more often than not he was either slow or confused when rotating after switches. It’s easy to love the Manimal, but perhaps a little too easy, and whether he can find a way to improve defensively will be a huge factor in whether he can get his game to the next level going forward.

Koufos was only slighly less disappointing than Faried. He got off to a shaky start, leading Karl to put in McGee earlier than he usually would. But seemingly frustrated with his own play, he found his spark plug in the second quarter and started playing with more energy and fight. He wasn’t able to sustain that through the second half, however, and Emeka Okafor pretty much abused Kosta and Kenneth all night long.

As he often has been in recent losses, Lawson was one of the brighter silver linings in this game. He tends to start games off slow and find his groove as the game progresses, but that was not the case tonight. He was determined to make plays from the get go, scoring with a combination of drives and mid-range jumpers, and doing a great job of finding his teammates. While Ty can’t completely be exempted from Denver’s bad defensive outing, he did a respectable job of containing John Wall. In the good news/bad news department, he hit 11 of his 12 free throws, but missed all six of his 3-point attempts.

This is a hard game to judge Iguodala on. I actually prefer when he stays with a more restrained offensive role as he did tonight. His eight points were modest but, for him, relatively efficient. And there were times in the game where he was making some good individual defensive plays, on Beal and Wall in particular. But like Lawson, he can’t be excused for his part of the Nuggets terrible perimeter defense. And his propensity for dribbling the ball into the teeth of the defense and turning it over ihas really become frustrating to watch.

Brewer quietly had a pretty good game. After the Nuggets flatlined coming out of halftime, going scoreless for over five minutes and allowing the Wizards to go on a 13-0 run, Brewer helped to put the brakes on defensively and get Denver back in the game. Like Lawson, he missed all of the 3-pointers, but he did infuse a sluggish team with energy, and while he didn’t do anything spectacular, he played the role he’s supposed to.

JaVale was the least disappointing of his frontcourt peers, but that’s still not saying too much. His defensive effort and impact was there, and Karl should have played him more, especially considering that not only was he playing better than Faried or Koufos, he was also playing on the home court of his former team. Where he really got outplayed was on the glass. It’s great that he worked with Hakeem on his post moves last summer, but it would be even better this summeer if he could work on boxing out.

If this game had ended at halftime, I may have given Miller an A+. He has taken a lot of heat lately at RMC — most of it well placed, in my opinion — but he sure came out blasting in the second quarter. He shot a perfect 5 of 5 in the first half, including a long 3-pointer, and pretty much single handedly got the Nuggets back into the game when they were slipping. Unfortunately, he also pretty much single handedly took the Nuggets out of the game, too, with yet another late game pretty-selfish-and-not-so-smart-for-a-wily-veteran play when he ran the full court solo on a fast break at attempted to score by running straight into two defenders, resulting in a block, turnover, and three points on the other end to put Denver down six with under two minutes remaining, when they could have been down just one or tied. How many times must this happen for George Karl to learn? Doesn’t matter: Karl doesn’t learn. Downgraded for that one play, and for his part in the porous defense.

Chandler was the Nuggets’ best player tonight. He was the only player who was truly effective on both offense and defense, and he really found a way to step up on a night when Gallo was struggling. 28 minutes is well above his average, but he should have gotten even more, with Danilo sitting the game out with his injury. If he can start to play at this level more consistently, it should give the Nuggets a real boost down the final stretch of the season.

George Karl

Instead of writing a new paragraph in this space every time, perhaps a “George Karl checklist” would simplify our task, as we so often encounter the same phenomena:
-Going into the first game of a road trip completely unprepared?
–Check
–Allowing the opponent to go on huge runs without calling a timeout to stop the bleeding?
–Check.
-Overplaying favorites and underplaying better in-game performers, especially in crucial moments of the game?
–Check.
-Closing out the game with small ball even when they’re getting badly outrebounded?
–Check.

Two Things We Saw

Wait, why did they keep all that depth? Isn’t a game like tonight’s, when the starting frontcourt is getting schooled by the opposing bigs, the reason the Nuggets kept Mozgov? Isn’t a game like tonight, when Gallinari’s injury was obviously preventing him from playing anywhere near his usual level, the reason the Nuggets kept players like Jordan Hamilton, Anthony Randolph and Evan Fournier? If the point of keeping the roster — the ENTIRE roster — intact at the trade deadline was to give the young players a chance to grow and develop together, then when problems arise in which sending in a bench player or two, tapping into the depth the team boasts (but seldom utilizes), would seem lke a no-brainer solution to most rational people, why is Karl so hell bent on sticking to the regular rotation players? And aren’t his coaching decisions in direct contradiction with the approach to team building Masai Ujiri described in his recent interview? If you want to give the young guys a chance, give them a chance. And if not, what’s the point of keeping them around rather than consolidating them into more potent talent considered worthy of cracking the rotation?

Where’s the D? There have been some signs in January and February that the Nuggets defense has been improving. Tonight was either a major setback in that process, or a sign that it was illusory in the first place, perhaps more a product of their recent home-heavy schedule than any substantive improvement. It is no longer too soon to say that adding Andre Iguodala may not have been enough. It clearly wasn’t. And now that the trade deadline has passed and, presumably, the front office will turn their attention to improving the roster this summer, bolstering the defense should be a top priority.That said, a lot of this falls directly on George Karl, too. The problems with the Nuggets perimeter defense now are essentially the same as they were in the heyday of the Melo era: too much switching, poor communication about switching and trapping, failing to fight through screens, rotating too slowly or failing to rotate at all, general confusion about who should be where guarding who. All of these are coachable skills, and the fact that Denver’s chronic defensive illness has essentially remained constant over a near-total turnover in the rostter points directly to a failure on Karl’s part. There’s really no other way around that.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/02/22/rapid-reaction-nuggets-113-wizards-119/feed/104How JaVale McGee’s game changed after the trade, and what that may bode for his futurehttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/08/07/how-javale-mcgees-game-changed-after-the-trade-and-what-that-may-bode-for-his-future/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/08/07/how-javale-mcgees-game-changed-after-the-trade-and-what-that-may-bode-for-his-future/#commentsWed, 08 Aug 2012 04:52:27 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=4278Sometimes, the grass really is greener.

When JaVale McGee was traded to the Denver Nuggets mid-season, the opportunity to escape from the highly dysfunctional atmosphere of the Washington Wizards organization and make a new start must truly have been a breath of fresh air.

One hardly need look further than former Wizards beat writer Jay Glassie’s scathing takedown of Ted Leonsis and Ernie Grunfeld to understand just how toxic the organizational environment was in Washington. Glassie, who actually quit covering the Wizards because he had gotten so fed up, goes into great detail explaining what he call the “incredible losing culture” of that organization. Many NBA fans are familiar with the headline-making incidents from that time period, most infamously when Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton reportedly pulled guns on each other in the locker room in December 2009, but behavioral and PR issues weren’t the only problems going on there. Those seeped deeply into basketball territory as well.

And for a young, raw, immature player in need of structure, discipline and veteran leadership, this clearly was infertile soil to be rooted in. McGee at one point asked Grunfeld “for a big man coach, and Grunfeld said he could have one if he paid for it himself”. It’s stunning that Washington would spurn cultivating one their most prized young assets, turning their backs on the opportunity to develop his game and facilitate his ambition to improve.

In vivid contrast, the Nuggets have sent McGee (who will soon be joined by Kenneth Faried) to join Amare Stoudemire in a personal training session with Hall of Fame center Hakeem Olajuwon. [You can see photos of JaVale and Amare working out with Hakeem on Facebook here]. For McGee, landing in an organization that puts a premium on player development and personalized training is an exciting chance to improve his game and turn around his reputation as the NBA’s main source of comic relief.

But what, in his short time with the Nuggets so far, has he made of this opportunity? Has the change of scenery really paid off in terms of him playing better basketball? And can all of this set him on a better track for a brighter future?

In analyzing the changes in McGee’s post-trade performance, it’s probably important to resist the urge to put too much stock in the statistics. He only played 20 regular season and 7 playoff games with the Nuggets, joining the team amidst the condensed, lockout-shortened season, leaving few opportunities to practice with his new teammates. 20 games is a small sample size, so the numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. But there are some differences between his Wizards and Nuggets stats which seem big enough at least to suggest that they could be meaningful as signs of things to come in McGee’s development.

And before even getting into the numbers, we already have a good deal of anecdotal evidence that JaVale has been improving in Denver. For one thing, he hasn’t really contributed any more eye rolling footage to his lengthy blooper reel collection. Although he still looked rather quirky on the court at times (which may partly just be a function of his lanky appearance), he seems to have settled into a less frenetic mode of play.

In his first game with the Nuggets, played at home against the Detroit Pistons on March 21st, McGee played the hero, putting back a game-winning tip-in off a missed Arron Afflalo free throw with 5 seconds remaining. [You can watch the highlight reel I put together of JaVale’s first Nuggets game here]. This was an exciting introduction, and seemed to be a harbinger that he could indeed benefit from a new start in Denver.

Then there was his playoff debut against the Los Angeles Lakers. While he wasn’t very consistent over the full seven game series, he had two outstanding performances against the formidable Andrew Bynum/Pau Gasol frontcourt in games three (16 points, 15 rebounds, 3 blocks) and five (21 points, 14 rebounds, 2 blocks), which garnered him recognition and praise on the national stage.

So the smell test reveals some indications that JaVale is getting better, but do the statistics back it up? The answer seems to point mostly to yes, but there is a little on the negative side of the equation as well. McGee’s rebounding and shot blocking both declined after being traded. His rebound rates and block rate were slightly down across the board, and he pulled down 1.5 fewer boards and swatted 0.5 fewer blocks per 36 minutes (stats from Basketballl-Reference.com):

There may not be any clear answer for why this part of his game slipped. An easy assumption would be that playing alongside Kenneth Faried might depress his rebounding numbers, but from the 5-man floor units at 82games.com, it appears that he actually spent considerably more time playing alongside Al Harrington than the Manimal, so that wouldn’t make much sense. (Unlike former Nugget Marcus Camby, Al has ever been accused of grabbing rebounds from his own teammates – or pretty much anyone else). Another possibility is that playing in a more controlled manner impacted his aggressiveness.

But overall, the differences are small enough that it’s hard at this point to chalk them up to much more than the kind of deviation we might expect from sampling error. A few other changes in McGee’s game – both good and bad – might also be considered too minimal to read too much into. Both his assist and turnover rates dropped slightly, which is pretty much a wash, and in any event can most likely be attributed to him handling the ball less in general. JaVale’s PER slightly increased, from 19.6 to 20.5, and even though his minutes per game dropped quite a bit, from 27.4 to 20.6, his usage rate stayed nearly the same. All of which pretty much adds up to move along, nothing to see here.

Things get much more interesting, however, when we break down McGee’s shooting. If you zoom in on the difference in McGee’s shot attempts and effective field goal percentage by shot location before and after the trade, it looks on the surface to be a formula for a decrease in his overall shooting efficiency. Jump shots were the only area in which his eFG% increased, but he took less of them. In the other locations (all near the basket), his attempts either increased or held steady, but his eFG% dropped:

Yet despite increasing the percentage on a shot he took less, and decreasing the percentages on the shots he took more, his overall TS% and eFG% actully rose by roughly 5% and 7.8% respectively. Somehow McGee managed to take more shots he got worse at, and fewer shots he got better at – and on top of that, drop his already woeful .500 free throw percentage to a horrific .373 – and still come out of the tunnel shooting more efficiently:

Of course, there’s a catch here, which is that those jump shots were so much less efficient to begin with than his inside shots, that even as his jump shot percentages increased and inside shot percentages decreased, a wide gap remained (stats from MySynergySports.com):

In the shot location numbers we looked at earlier, McGee’s jumpers decreased by 7% and his combined inside shots increased by 7%. The “cut” and “post-up” categories in the chart above seem to roughly correspond to those differences, and from watching JaVale play I think it’s safe to infer that most of his jumpers are taken off post-ups. So the “Differences” columns here confirm a similar picture.

But the red meat is in the points per possession. In Washington, a whopping 32.2% of McGee’s shots were post-ups, and yet he was only making them at a clip of 0.71 PPP. His most efficient shot, at 1.35 PPP, was the cut, but he took it only 18.9% of the time. Obviously, in the ideal situation, a player will increase his share of good shots and decrease the bad, but the opposite of this was happening with the Wizards.

After joining the Nuggets, a much better balance was achieved, as cuts replaced post-ups as the shot JaVale took most often (27.7%) and post-ups were reduced to a 25.8% share. And although points per possession dropped from 1.35 to 1.24 on his cuts, that’s still highly efficient, and the fact that he was utilizing it much more, combined with the improvement in his post-ups from 0.71 to 0.91 PPP, made all the difference.

Everything about this situation screams that a world of credit must be given to the Denver Nuggets scouting and coaching staff. They clearly knew the exact prescription necessary to maximize McGee’s efficiency on the offensive end. They knew if they got him, they could make him better. His transition to Denver was not only a healthy change of environment on the organizational level, it was like a transfer from Greendale Community College to Harvard University in terms of the quality of education and coaching he’s receiving.

Given that Masai Ujiri and the Nuggets raised the bar on what to expect from McGee by signing him to a 4-year, $44 million contract, the fact that they seem to have started him on a much better course moving forward is welcome news.

I expect that as he progresses through his first training camp and preseason with the Nuggets, becoming more familiar with his teammates and the system, that much of the slippage in rebounding, blocks and some of his shooting percentages will return to the trajectory they were on over the course of his first 3 ½ seasons in the NBA. Working with Hakeem this summer, and having Andre Miller back around to throw him more of those easy lobs won’t hurt, either.

If McGee plays about 27-28 minutes per game next season, I’d figure that 14-15 points, with 8-9 rebounds and 2-2.5 blocks per game, at a PER of around 22, is realistically within reach as his game develops, he becomes more fully integrated into the team, and the Nuggets coaching staff continues to maximize his efficiency.

Kosta Koufos, C15 MIN | 1-5 FG | 0-0 FT | 6 REB | 0 AST | 2 PTS | +3Koufos didn’t see much time against the Wizards, but his six rebounds were third most on the team despite playing only 15 minutes. It’s still a mystery as to why he’s not seeing the floor more often, especially given his rebounding prowess which the Nuggets still desperately need at times.

Danilo Gallinari, SF35 MIN | 7-11 FG | 6-6 FT | 4 REB | 5 AST | 21 PTS | +3Gallinari had a strong first half and mellowed out as the game progressed. But going 7-11 from the field while collecting four rebounds, five boards, an assist and a steal is a great all-around stat line for the Rooster.

Timofey Mozgov, C21 MIN | 4-5 FG | 0-0 FT | 5 REB | 0 AST | 8 PTS | +3Mozgov certainly played much better against the Wizards than he has in other games where he’s logged heavy minutes. Though you’d still like to see more rebounds and just a better overall feel for the game and his positioning, it’s obvious that he’s trying to improve which is good to see.

Arron Afflalo, SG34 MIN | 5-11 FG | 2-5 FT | 2 REB | 3 AST | 13 PTS | +11Afflalo didn’t have his best game of the year but he didn’t have his worst game either. His defense against Nick Young was decent, but he wasn’t the “stopper” he can be at times. He had a few nice mid-range jump shots that he knocked down coming off screens and a few good cuts to the basket, but in general Afflalo must do these things more often in order to make the kind of impact we all know he can.

Ty Lawson, PG38 MIN | 7-17 FG | 4-4 FT | 9 REB | 6 AST | 21 PTS | +14Lawson had one of the his better games this year against the Wizards, putting up All-Star numbers across the board. His nine rebounds and six assists were both team highs and his 3-for-6 shooting from downtown helped the Nuggets out tremendously in such a tight game. Though Lawson is shooting a pretty low percentage from the field over the last week, his aggressiveness is still appreciated and largely the reason why.

Al Harrington, PF30 MIN | 10-16 FG | 4-6 FT | 7 REB | 2 AST | 29 PTS | +4Seriously, what more can you say about this guy? His 29 points were a season high and his seven boards, the second most on the team. His .362 3-point shooting percentage is above his career average and his 2-point field goal percentage is supposedly the highest in he league according to Chris Marlowe. Additionally according to 82games.com, Harrington leads the team in cumulative plus-minus at plus-109 and Nuggets’ points per possession when he’s on the floor at 1.13. Al is also second in the team in PER behind only Corey Brewer who hasn’t really played all that much this season. Currently Al is either sitting atop or near the top of the Sixth Man of the Year award race.

Andre Miller, PG27 MIN | 0-4 FG | 0-0 FT | 4 REB | 5 AST | 0 PTS | -7Miller was frustrated all evening with the lack of calls he and the Nuggets were receiving from the refs. He spent more time complaining than he did playing — although, after the incredible performance he had against the Sixers, this can be excused for one night. Still, Miller needs to find some sort of consistency in his game moving forward. He’s just too talented to be struggling this much.

Chris Andersen, C23 MIN | 2-5 FG | 3-7 FT | 8 REB | 0 AST | 7 PTS | -6Though numerically speaking, Andersen had a pretty good game, I still didn’t see how he was contributing to helping the Nuggets win. His negative-six on the plus-minus scale was second worst on the team — probably due to the fact that he was constantly fumbling the ball (like always) and letting McGee run wild, which led to numerous easy buckets. At this point, it’s really hard to believe that Faried would be anywhere near as bad as Birdman is.

Corey Brewer, SF6 MIN | 0-0 FG | 1-2 FT | 0 REB | 1 AST | 1 PTS | -3Hard to give a grade to Brewer when he was only in for such a short amount of time, although his defense and energy were there yet again. It’s anyone’s guess as to why he didn’t play much in a tight game where defense was nowhere to be found. After the way he’s played lately, you would think he would have earned himself a spot in the rotation, but apparently not.

Five Things We Saw

The Worst First: The Nuggets allowed the Wizards to score a season-high tying (for opponents) 37 points in the first quarter on Friday. To put things into perspective, the Wizards are 27th in the league in points per game at roughly 88 and have scored 30 in the first quarter only once all season — and that was against the Knicks. In the last nine games, the Nuggets have held its opponent to under 25 points in the first quarter only twice. This frightful trend does nothing but compound the Nuggets defensive woes even more and is solid proof that the Nuggets are coming into games mentally unprepared. While the Nuggets need to address its defensive shortcomings immediately, fixing the opening-game defensive strategy should be paramount.

“Arc” Nemesis: Right after the Nuggets work on their defense to open up the game they should then concentrate on their perimeter defense as it’s some of the worst in the league and will end up costing them one of these days if not repaired. Right now Denver ranks 16th in opponent’s 3-point field goal percentage, 27th in opponent’s 3-pointers made and 29th in opponent’s 3-pointers attempted. It’s no secret that the Nuggets have had all kinds of problems this year with switching screens and closing out on defenders, what needs to be avoided at all costs however is letting this become a staple of the team rather than just an early season struggle.

Fundamentally Flawed: Sticking with the theme of defense (since that is in fact the primary “thing I saw” on Friday), it’s also important to note just how terrible the Nuggets are when it comes to executing the most basic elements of basketball. Everything from boxing out, to running precise plays, to crashing the boards — it’s all rusty at best. But this is perhaps most evident on the defensive side of the ball. Honestly, watching the Nuggets play defense is painful these days. Other than Afflalo, nobody seems to take pride in their one-on-one defense which leads to penetration, which leads to abuse of help-defense, which leads to kick-outs, which leads to open 3-pointers, which leads to the Nuggets getting in holes they shouldn’t be in. I know Denver is currently sitting at 11-5 but that doesn’t change the fact that it also ranks 26th in opponents points per game, 29th in opponent’s field goals per game, 26th in opponent’s field goal percentage, 24th in opponent’s adjusted field goal percentage, 23rd in rebounds per game, dead last in offensive rebounds per game and 23rd in opponent’s assists per game. So sure, winning in the regular season by outscoring the opponent is fun and all, but this type of basketball simply won’t cut it come playoff time. At some point the Nuggets are going to have to clamp down on defense and start playing fundamentally sounds basketball if they want to continue their success in the postseason.

The Four Amigos: Al Harrington, Nene, Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari are becoming quite the force. Not only are these the top four leaders in points per game on the roster, but according to 82games.com when they’re on the floor together along with Andre Miller they’re also Denver’s best defensive squad, allowing only .63 points per possession to the opponent. This specific five-man squad leads any other combination of Nuggets players in plus-minus and has outscored it’s opponent 5-to-1 every time it steps on to the floor. Between Al’s Sixth Man of the Year push, Lawson’s fringe All-Star status, Gallinari’s “do it all” type of game and Nene’s improving aggressiveness, the Nuggets have what it takes to succeed in the playoffs, but again, defense must become a top priority in order for post-season success to come to fruition.

Road Warriors: After going 3-0 so far on the current road trip, the Nuggets now are tied for the seventh best record in the NBA and sit in second place in the Western Conference behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder. The road has always given the Nuggets trouble, but perhaps this year will be different given the shortened schedule and roster depth. Denver will always take care of its business at home, but if the Nuggets can manage to finish the year above .500 away from the Pepsi Center, they will almost certainly put themselves in position to finish as a top four seed in the West, securing a much-needed home court advantage in the process.

Pace Factor: 100.8 – A fast game against a struggling defensive teamOffensive Efficiency: 107.1 – A fine performance on the roadDefensive Efficiency: 103.1 – Not good at all. This could become a big problem if not addressed

I’ve been waiting for Ty Lawson to start looking for his jump shot more. Teams are clamping down hard on him in the paint and Lawson’s efforts to draw contact on drives have not been rewarded all season. Lawson can hit pull up jumpers with or without a screen, he can create space and step back with his range or simply spot up and take set shots from three. Ty is unstoppable when he gets more aggressive and more confident with his shot. Right now he’s taking a few too many floaters and off balance jumpers at the end of the shot clock and his efficiency is taking a serious hit. Tonight was a step in the right direction. Ty, for whatever reason, continues to get little respect from officials compared to other small point guards in the league.

Kalen mentioned it, and the Nuggets’ perimeter defense was indeed atrocious in this game. Rotations were slow and anytime the Wizards swung the ball from one side of the floor to the other someone was guaranteed to be open for three. Part of the problem is the fact Andre Miller sags way off his man, allows him to see the entire floor and doesn’t close out on anyone. Chris Andersen is indifferent in terms of hustling out to disrupt a shooter. Shelvin Mack and Chris Singleton were on their way to career nights and the Nuggets were lucky Washington was fairly passing-averse and took enough bad shots to bring their field goal percentage down considerably.

I was very surprised Rudy played. He wore a thick sleeve over his achilles and didn’t last long before having to leave. He has a nagging injury that needs rest; the Nuggets play tomorrow, Corey Brewer is playing great so there wasn’t exactly a pressing need to get him in. Let’s hope Rudy’s setback was not serious.

Al Harrington won the game. He not only hit threes but without Nene, him and Afflalo were asked to post up more. Harrington was the only one having any sort of success. Al Buckets showed leadership and poise at the end of the game and he continues to be one of the most consistent and important pieces on the team.

Koufos isn’t giving the Nuggets much. It’s not a coincidence he’s only produced at the Center spot and I believe he should only be getting Center minutes. The guy deserves court time, but it seems Karl is rewarding him charity minutes and starts without any intention of giving him an actual role. Birdman did have one of his better games of the season production-wise, but Washington had absolutely no threatening post presence and it really pained me not to see the Manimal get a shot. There was never any reason to start two slow, offensively challenged seven footers when the plan all along was to go small. Denver fell behind 37-27 in the first quarter.

That being said, I credit Karl and the team in this one. It’s clear they were a little flat with Nene out and this was not a win to like, but one to accept. The Nuggets did claw back and fend off the Wizards nicely despite their offense struggling bad in the second half. Andre Miller wasn’t useless, but he went scoreless while playing 20-plus minutes for the second time this season. For a guy as immensely talented as Andre, I don’t understand how that happens and it’s incredibly disappointing. Nevertheless, what a great road win as long as the Nuggets learn from it.

The only thing I will say about the coaching is that the Nuggets should take a strong look at getting Al some help at the Power Forward spot, especially against more physical teams. And I don’t mean Koufos.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/01/20/rapid-reaction-denver-nuggets-108-washington-wizards-104/feed/24Nuggets without Nene against Wizardshttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/01/20/nuggets-without-nene-against-wizards/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/01/20/nuggets-without-nene-against-wizards/#commentsFri, 20 Jan 2012 20:47:15 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=3127The Denver Post is reporting the Nuggets will be without Nene tonight against the Wizards. After coming off an injury of his own, Timofey Mozgov will likely start alongside Kosta Koufos in the front court. Additionally, Rudy Fernandez will attempt to play after missing the last several games due to an achilles problem. It should be noted that over the last four games Nene is averaging 17.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game while playing some of the most aggressive basketball of his career with the Denver Nuggets. Nene will no doubt be sorely missed against one of the taller front lines in the NBA. Let’s just hope this is a legitimate injury and not simply a “rest day,” as even though the Wizards don’t have greatest of records, they’re still an NBA team that has a lot of talent, and one that just beat the team most consider to be the best in the league: the Oklahoma City Thunder.
]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/01/20/nuggets-without-nene-against-wizards/feed/15Nuggets News: The Association and Stiffs Night Outhttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/01/19/nuggets-news-the-association/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/01/19/nuggets-news-the-association/#commentsThu, 19 Jan 2012 23:16:58 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=3117Courtesy of Benjamin Hochman, details are emerging on the latest season of NBATV’s “The Association” which will follow the Denver Nuggets through the 2011-2012 season. The first episode airs next Wednesday on NBATV and you can find the full schedule in Hochman’s Nuggets Ink post. For those not familiar with the show it is a fascinating look into the grind of an NBA season from the perspective of the players, coaches, front office executives and trainers. The Nuggets were last featured on NBATV’s “Real Training Camp” two seasons ago and that was a must-watch for Nuggets fans as I’m sure “The Association” will be as well.

We’d also like to post a friendly reminder to attend Stiffs Night Out for the upcoming New York Knicks game. It will no doubt be a fun time and a great opportunity to hang out with fellow Nuggets fans. Our friends at Denver Stiffs are also giving away prime seats to an upcoming home game and if you’re in the Denver area, I strongly suggest you go! Follow the link on Denver Stiffs for all the details.

On to the latest news and links.

China Update: The CBA season is about to go on break with the Chinese New Year holiday fast approaching (January 23). NiuBBall has posted their latest CBA Water Cooler discussing all of the most recent happenings in the CBA. The interesting tidbit is that Wilson Chandler’s club Guangsha is mired in a slump and Chandler’s begun to draw heavy criticism with his inevitable departure from China drawing near. My assumption is that both Wilson Chandler and JR Smith will return to the United States next week during Chinese New Year and we will hear more news regarding their NBA futures. It’s important to keep one crucial fact in mind though – even if Wilson and JR are released they WILL NOT sign and play in the NBA until the conclusion of the CBA season in March or April (ditto with Kenyon Martin).

Here’s a funny item from last night’s overtime win in Philly: Sixers reporter Tom Moore revealed on twitter that Andre Miller iced Andre Iguodala at the line, whispering “66 percent” in his ear as Iguodala attempted the would-be game winning free throws. Iguodala is normally a reliable foul shooter but is struggling this season and only converting the aforementioned 66%.

Al Buckets was interviewed on NBATV Arena Link following last night’s game in Philadelphia. Harrington gives a great interview covering Andre Miller, George Karl and how he approaches his role coming off the bench.

In preparation for the upcoming Knicks game, take a moment to scout the New York defense with John Bennett at NBAPlaybook. Denver’s defense suffers very similar problems and it isn’t surprising both teams rank near the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency (New York 11th and Denver 13th). The difference is Denver’s offense has been much more potent while the Knicks face perhaps the worst point guard woes in the entire league. I believe Denver matches up very well with the Knickerbockers and I suggest everyone check out John’s video on the Knicks defense to study up on what Denver needs to do to disrupt the Knicks.

Take note on Hoopdata of how many shots Denver takes at the rim. Equally impressive is the fact Denver is comfortably averaging double digits assists purely on shots taken right under the basket. John Schuhmann of NBA.com points out that 44.6% of Denver’s total shots are taken inside the restricted area, miles ahead of any other team.

Injury report for tomorrow’s game against the Wizards in DC: Mozgov is a game time decision per Aaron Lopez. No word on Rudy Fernandez, but he did indicate he could play against Washington. My uninformed guess is he’s less likely than Mozgov to play tomorrow but could suit up against New York or Sacramento. On the Washington Wizards front, Rony Turiaf is out indefinitely with a broken hand. Rashard Lewis has a sore back and is day-to-day, but he played 25 minutes off the bench against OKC yesterday.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/01/19/nuggets-news-the-association/feed/15Prospecting: Digging for gold in the 2011 NBA Drafthttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/05/14/prospecting-digging-for-gold-in-the-2011-nba-draft/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/05/14/prospecting-digging-for-gold-in-the-2011-nba-draft/#commentsSun, 15 May 2011 02:48:42 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=2396With the Denver Nuggets already out of the playoffs and the NBA Draft a little over a month away, speculation on how the Nuggets will approach the draft and who it will take with the 22nd pick is firmly underway. Equipped with an enticing asset in Raymond Felton as well as the less attractive Al Harrington — both of whom are overshadowed at their respective positions by other teammates, thus making them somewhat trade-able — the Nuggets have the option to make a variety of moves if prompted.

As some of you might know by now, the Nuggets only possess one pick in this year’s draft (No. 22 in the first round) due the Arron Afflalo trade in which we surrendered our second-round pick. Though it is near the back of the pack, it’s extremely important to keep in mind how unpredictable things can get on draft day and how hard it truly is to evaluate potential prospects. Just going back to last year, Landry Fields of the New York Knicks, who was one of the best rookies in all of basketball and finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting, fell all the way to the second round at pick No. 39. Ten picks before that, at No. 27, was the Washington Wizards’ Jordan Crawford (you might know him better as “The Guy Who Dunked on Lebron”), who after being traded from the Hawks mid-season went on to have a stellar rookie campaign in which he finished off the season averaging roughly 20 points, five rebounds and five assists per game. Other notable accomplishments in Crawford’s first year as a pro was a career high 39-point game against Dwyane Wade and the Heat, as well as a 21-point, 11-assist, 10-rebound triple-double against the Cavaliers. The point is: Every year there are a few players that drop way further than they should in the draft, and some that simply get overlooked or undervalued. Where the Nuggets are selecting this year, at the 22 spot, is a position that’s primed to have a few sleepers available come draft day, so without further ado lets take a look at some of these potential candidates…

Unlike when you’re drafting near the top of the lottery, the later picks in the first round often times will be made to address team needs more than anything. As far as I can tell, the most glaring team need for the Nuggets is at the center or power forward position; basically, we need big men. With Nene still contemplating opting out of his current contract — which by the way, would land him $12 million next season — and Kenyon Martin set to become an unrestricted free agent, the only sure-fire bigs the Nuggets have locked down through 2012 are Koufos, Andersen and Mozgov. As lovable as these three eccentric, pale hustle players are, it would irresponsible for the Nuggets to bank on them alone doing all the front-court work through next season, so drafting a big with the No. 22 pick solves two problems: first, it will insure that in the event Nene and K-Mart don’t return we’ll have an extra body to put on the floor; and second, it addresses a need we’ve had for quite some time. So, here are the big men the Nuggets have a REALISTICshot at obtaining with its first, and only selection in the 2011 NBA Draft:

Kenneth Faried // PF// Morehead State University

If there is one player in this year’s draft that Nuggets fans should be praying to get, it’s this guy. Since the 6-foot-8 power forward began his collegiate career, Faried has dominated the glass like no other player in modern era history. Of the top ten rebounding seasons in NCAA history, Faried owns four of them. Yes, even when Faried was a freshman he was putting up one of the ten-best rebounding performances of all time, and he continued this amazing trend throughout his career. No other player has even landed twice on that list, and it’s no surprise that this dominance has resulted in Faried owning the record for most rebounds ever hauled down in an NCAA career. But although rebounding is certainly Faried’s clear-cut strength, it’s not the only thing that makes up his basketball DNA.

Faried is the epitome of a hustle player, who takes pride in doing the dirty work. His motor is unlike anything I’ve seen coming out of college. He virtually never stops working; whether it’s getting position down low, setting precise picks, diving on the floor for 50-50 balls, following up missed shots or making a stealth-like steal, Faried is guaranteed to be doing it harder and faster than anybody else on the court. It’s like he’s always in overdrive or playing in the midst of the NCAA Tournament; he just doesn’t stop working.

Athletically Faried is above the cut. He’s long, skinny and can jump out of the building when prompted, which often times leads to monster dunks, blocks or well-timed put-backs. Though his offensive game is not nearly where it needs to be entering the draft, it’s almost irrelevant because no team is going to draft Faried to put points on the board. That said, Faried excels around the rim and because of his ability to snatch virtually any rebound within his vicinity, he’s able to get his fair share of points. He’s very similar to Kenyon Martin in this aspect, where his offense is largely generated off other teammates misses.

Faried certainly has areas of his game where he needs to improve, but the overall package and value is just too tantalizing to pass up if he were still available at No. 22. Faried is exactly what this Nuggets team needs and I will be overjoyed if we are able to draft him. The only problem: This is an extremely weak draft by most accounts, so good players like Faried aren’t gonna last long. Most mock drafts have him right around the 20-25 spot, but there’s a good chance he could go somewhere in the lottery if the right team falls in love with him. Let’s just pray high-energy rebounders are not a huge need for the 21 other teams before us on draft night.

Davis Bertans // SF // Union Olimpija Ljubljana

This is a guy who I have personally anointed one of the most intriguing prospects in this year’s draft from both the Nuggets standpoint, and in general. Everything I’ve read and seen on Bertans has been impressive. He’s a 6-foot-10 small forward from Latvia who has a great feel for the game, as well as a lights-out shot from beyond the arc. Though he is what NBA draft analysts like to refer to as a “tweener,” that doesn’t defer me one bit from drooling over his potential (and yes, I know how dangerous that sounds when you’re talking about foreign prospects). A big part of the intrigue surrounding Bertans is the fact that he’s only 18 and still growing at a rapid speed (eight inches in the last two years). He’s also extremely versatile (there’s really nothing Bertans can’t do on the court) and can run the length of the floor like a gazelle. But to me, the most impressive thing about Bertans is the simple fact that he appears to be a basketball player at heart. Often times, guys with his attributes are forced to play basketball, but Bertans really plays like he loves what he does.

This is the exact type of guy teams across the league have been searching for ever since Dirk Nowitzki shattered the notion that Europeans couldn’t be franchise players in the NBA. He’s tall, lanky, able to create his own shot and most of all very smooth in the way that he operates. Bertans, though primarily a spot-up shooter on his European team, has somewhat of a veteran feel with the ball in his hands. He’s a very good passer for his size and seems to make good decisions with great frequency. That said, Bertans does shoot way too often and can get sloppy, but I see this more as a result of playing in Europe than anything. Also, because he is so young and his body is still developing, Bertans might be a bit of a project, which is not necessarily what the Nuggets need at this point.

In general though, I really like Bertans for a few simple reasons: (A) He’s got a great combination of size and a versatility that’s rare to see in the NBA (think along the lines of Kevin Durant), (B) He’s still growing at an astounding rate, and (C) He can flat out shoot from NBA range with no problems whatsoever. These types of strengths combined into one package are hard to find. I know we see this exact type of scouting report all the time in the draft, and way more often than not they just turn out to be mediocre role players or busts — and to be quite honest, there is a great chance Bertans could be in that same boat — but just going off the eye test, I liked what I saw from Bertans and I don’t think he’d be a bad pick if we were to take him at No.22.

Trey Thompkins // PF // Georgia

Coming out of high school, and for his first few season in college, Thompkins was one of the more interesting prospects on the NBA radar. Unfortunately, his game has since taken a major hit in production and because of this Thompkins finds himself likely to be taken somewhere near the latter part of the first round. At 6-feet-9-inches and almost 250 pounds, Thompkins is a prototypical power forward. Though he can stretch the floor and convert a descent percent of his shots from downtown, Thompkins’ specialty is operating within the confines of the low post. He has a silky-soft touch, excellent footwork and an array of different post moves he utilizes to expose his opponents with. Scoring is certainly Thompkins greatest strength, and because he’s somewhat limited in terms of athleticism, he’s developed an extremely crafty post game similar to the likes of Zach Randolph. Thompkins is also viewed as having a fairly high basketball IQ which contributes to his firm understanding of the role he plays and where he needs to be on the court in order to maximize his team’s chances of winning. But although he resides most often times in the post, Thompkins does possess a strong ability to run the floor or find the open man when in a precarious double-team.

As previously mentioned, though Thompkins does appear to be enticing in terms of skill level, there are some big question marks when it comes to his progression as a player. After an impressive sophomore campaign, Thompkins has seen his production dip across the board in many major statistical categories. Scouts were thrilled with Thompkins before the 2011 season began, projecting him as one of the best big men in the country, but he never really fulfilled these lofty expectations as a junior. On top of this, Thompkins has had issues with conditioning which have led to inconsistent play and energy, mostly on the defensive side of the ball. He is not a jaw-dropping talent in terms of athleticism and because of this, many question just how far he can go in the NBA. Nevertheless, Thompkins is reportedly a hard worker, and if he can continue to improve his physique there’s no doubt he can become an established player in the NBA.

Lucas Nogueira // C // MMT Estudiantes

Of all the big man prospects the Nuggets will be taking a look at in this year’s draft, Nogueira is bar-none the most fascinating in terms of potential. Standing 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan and only 18 years of age, Nogueira is an athletic specimen to behold. Though he is still extremely underdeveloped (roughly 210 pounds) and has tons of work to do in nearly all areas of his game, there’s no question Nogueira has as much potential as any big man in this year’s draft outside of Derrick Williams. He’s an athletic freak of nature who jumps as if he has mini packages of dynamite taped to the bottom of his shoes that explode every time he leaves the ground, and more often than not this is used to block someone’s shot — his specialty — or slam home an emphatic dunk. His wing span and overall length are making scouts salivate, but teams in the NBA can only wait so long before they need that full meal, and with Nogueira this might be a problem.

As noted, 18 years of age, 200 pounds and a raw skill set is the definition of a “project” in NBA terms. There’s just no telling how long it’s going to be before Nogueira would suit up for whatever NBA team selects him. Maybe it will be a year, maybe two, but either way you’re going to have a wait before you’re blessed with his services, and even then it’s going to take some time adjusting to the NBA game. Furthermore, Nogueira has some question marks in terms of personality; often times he’s found hanging on the rim when his teammates are back in transition, and other times he’s getting in trivial scuffles with opponents. Then there are those who question his motivation(he can be lazy at times, especially on defense), drive as well as his overconfident bravado (he already believes he’s a star). But the underlying question scouts are asking is: How can you really pass up on such a promising prospect? If Nogueira fills out, keeps his head on straight and continues to refine his skill set, we could be looking at a game-changing center in the NBA.

In my eyes, I’d have to think that Nogueira is pretty high on Masai’s draft board. We still desperately need that defensive-minded center, and this is as good as it gets for where we are selecting. In addition to being from Brazil, Nogueira also goes by a shorter alias very similar to Nene — “Bebe” — and this naturally makes you wonder how cool it would be to have two solid big men from Brazil next to each other in the front court name “Nene” and “Bebe.” It almost seems destined to be, but Nogueira has been rising fast on draft boards so he might not be around by the time we pick. However, if he is still there at No. 22, don’t be surprised if you hear his name as it makes the most sense in a variety of different ways.

Tobias Harris // SF // Tennessee

The best way I can describe Harris is Josh Smith minus the athleticism. He’s a solid all around player, capable of doing almost everything on the basketball court, but doesn’t excel in any one aspect in particular. He has a very high basketball IQ and is known for his versatility. Standing at 6-foot-8 and weighing roughly 210 pounds, Harris resides on a solid foundation with very broad shoulders and an overall thick structure. He won’t blow you away with his quickness and athleticism, but he makes up for it by playing smart, fundamental basketball. He can run the floor, has good ball-handling abilities and can finish pretty well around the rim. His shot is decent, but he’s certainly not known for being a knock-down shooter. Harris is basically a utility man, doing anything you ask of him pretty good, but not overwhelmingly great.

Because he’s only 18, many see Harris as somewhat of a sleeper in this year’s draft. The problem scouts are having is analyzing where he fits in the NBA. Many believe he’s not quite quick enough to hang around with some of more athletic wings, and conversely not tall enough to defend power forwards either. There’s no question from what I can see, that Harris is currently a small forward in the NBA, as his skill set most represents this position; but if he can continue to grow, which seems likely considering he’s only 18, then there’s a good chance Harris could eventually mold himself into a highly skilled power forward. I don’t see Harris as a player that would address any needs the Nuggets possess, but I really like what I’ve seen and read about him, so I wouldn’t necessarily be disappointed if we were to take him.

Chris Singleton // SF // Florida State

Singleton is a 6-foot-8, athletic wing who specializes in defense. Though he is a small forward and will likely continue to play that same position at the NBA level, Singleton has the ability to guard nearly every position on the floor. He possess a long frame and because he’s so athletic, is able to move at an astounding pace in nearly all directions. His numbers in both the steals and blocks categories have always been impressive, but his offensive game is what most scouts have been concerned with. Yet, in 2011 (his junior season) at Florida State, Singleton showed vast improvements in many offensive aspects of his game — most notably his jump shot — much to the delight of NBA general managers and talent evaluators alike. Though he still needs to refine his offensive game, especially in terms of creating his own shot, it’s really Singleton’s defense and intensity that NBA teams are going to be drafting him for. He flat out appears to be one of the best, most dedicated defenders coming out of college, and when consider the fact that he’s known as having a good personality and attitude, Singleton appears to be a lock to at least make an impact in the NBA. Much like Harris, Singleton doesn’t necessarily fill a void for the Nuggets — especially if Wilson Chandler is here — but I don’t think you could be upset if we were to take him, as his future in the NBA looks bright.

Conclusion: Again, the players listed here are simply the big men the Nuggets have a realistic shotof obtaining with the No. 22 pick in the draft. In the upcoming weeks we’ll look at some potential trade possibilities in both the first and second rounds, as well as those players the Nuggets should consider moving up for in the draft. Although big men are an important target, there are still some very talented guards that will likely be hanging around come the Nuggets’ pick, which we will evaluate as well. Stay tuned, enjoy the playoffs and remember to follow me on Twitter @24kGoldenChild if you aren’t already!