Save Article

Jerry Brown's Vow

Voters approved California Gov.
Jerry Brown's
millionaire's tax by a comfortable 8-point margin. It may be just a starter course on a long menu of tax hikes that Democrats could seek to impose.

Democrats also captured a supermajority in the legislature, which will allow the party to raise taxes to their heart's content. This outcome caught even Democrats by surprise since they were only hoping to score a two-thirds majority in the state Senate, not the state Assembly.

But several Democratic legislative candidates benefitted from Mr. Brown's tax campaign, which supercharged youth turnout in moderate and right-leaning districts like Fullerton Assemblyman Chris Norby's. For instance, the governor's threat to cut $250 million from the Cal State system and raise tuition by $300 if the initiative failed drove Cal State Fullerton students and faculty to the polls en masse.

This year voters between the ages of 18 and 29 made up 28% of the electorate, compared to 22% in 2008 and about 15% in a typical presidential election. Young people broke for the tax hike, 63-37, while voters older than 45 rejected it, 45-55, and those ages 30 to 44 favored it by just two points, according to exit polls.

Joel Fox, president of the Small Business Action Committee, which led the opposition campaign, credits the governor for his strategy, particularly his final thrust targeting the Los Angeles region. Voters rejected the initiative in nearly every southern and inland county save Los Angeles, and had voters in Los Angeles broke even, the tax would have failed.

In any event, Democrats now have carte blanche to pass any tax increase and could even override the governor's veto, though that's politically risky. State Senate President Darrell Steinberg said yesterday that the legislature would now examine "tax reform" and broadening the base. What does that mean?

John Kabateck
of the National Federation of Independent Business tells me that California Democrats will almost certainly try to pass "split-roll," which would remove the state's property tax cap for businesses. Democrats have also long wanted to impose a sales tax on services. An oil severance tax could also be in the cards, even though oil companies gave heavily to Mr. Brown's tax campaign.

Mr. Brown pledged yesterday to spend taxpayer money prudently. "We've got to make sure over the next few years that we pay our bills, we invest in the right programs, but we don't go on any spending binges like we did in the days when we had the dot-com boom," he said. "Desires are endless," he added. "I vow to cut them down."