Comments

MLB Picks

Gimme 5: Players to Back (Gonzalez) or Fade (Davis) for Prop Bets Monday

MLB prop betting takes mounds of research and combing through hours of stats to find the perfect odds. Luckily, here at Sportsbook Review we have complied a daily report of the best prop betting matchups that the Monday, May 7 slate has to offer.

Homer Bailey is on the wrong end of this article a lot, and once again on Monday his scheduled start has one guy who could blow it all up. Adrian Gonzalez is far from the hitter he once was in Los Angeles, but now in New York his bat still works pretty well.

Hopefully for prop bettors it turns into profit for a short Monday slate of MLB. Gonzalez has a very nice history against Bailey at 11-for-25 (.440) with 6 home runs, 10 RBI and 2 doubles. That’s an OPS of 1.702, and while Gonzalez is on the downside of his career compared to when most of these numbers were accumulated, he might still have some magic off Bailey on Monday.

Stephen Strasburg had a somewhat rough month of April, but he opened up his first May start with a solid performance, going 7 innings and allowing only 2 earned runs on 7 hits in a win. If he can shake off a couple of rusty early-season starts, his matchup against the Padres is very good.

The Padres are only 13-for-63 (.206) against Strasburg over their careers with no home runs, 4 RBI, and a strikeout rate of 26.8%. The game being in Petco Park will only help Strasburg limit his run production, and hopefully for prop bettors, rack up strikeouts too.

Kyle Hendricks took a loss to the Rockies in his last start after giving up three home runs. However, if Kendricks can keep his fly-ball rate down against the Marlins, he has some nice upside for strikeout and innings pitched props.

Khris Davis is usually an appealing home run bet on most nights. His big bat and free-swinging mentality usually adds up to plenty of home runs. The guy has nearly 100 home runs since 2016. However, even though he does own one career home run off Keuchel, the rest of his plate appearances against the Astros’ lefty have been outs.

Davis is just 1-for-18 (0.56) in his career off Keuchel, and while he does have a homer as his lone hit, he also has 4 strikeouts. Davis is an appealing play most nights, but he’s usually worse against lefties, and Keuchel is the epitome of those struggles.

Howie Kendrick is getting some more playing time early in the season with all of the Nationals’ injuries, but in the past Tyson Ross has given him some problems. Kendrick is only 2-for-13 (.154) in his career against the Padres’ starter, so while there may not be many options for bettors or the Nats right now, it’s better to not risk it in a tough historical matchup.