Science

Government using flawed optimism theory to plan major infrastructure projects

The Government is failing to learn from major infrastructure delays because it relies too heavily on a now doubtful theory that officials are naturally over-optimistic instead of seeking out evidence of poor management and bad investment, it is claimed.

Whitehall officials working on infrastructure projects are trained to factor into their calculations the well-established theory of “irrational optimism bias”, which suggests that decision-makers have an ingrained and irrational tendency to under-estimated the cost and timescale of major projects.

This assumption that people are optimistically biased is being used to guide large infrastructure projects, with the aim of managing expectations around how much projects will cost and how long they will take to complete. Our research supports a re-examination of optimism bias before allowing it to guide policy.

Dr Adam Harris

But scientist from King’s College London, UCL and Birkbeck, University of London, have now cast doubt over that theory in a major new study which reassesses claims that people are inherently over-optimistic or “optimistically biased” about the future.

They say the use of “optimism bias” in the development of Government policy now needs to be paused and they have called for urgent talks between officials and scientists to re-examine its use in policy throughout Government.

Punit Shah, a psychologist from the MRC Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre at King’s College London, said: “There is ample evidence for optimism bias in various real-world situations – England football fans for example – but these instances simply show that certain people might be optimistic in certain situations, not that they are generally optimistic.

”The strength of the evidence of ‘optimism bias’ is now so weak that there should now be a pause on the use of the old research in the development of policy.“

The theory, which was developed several decades ago, applies to major projects such as the HS2 rail network and is even mentioned in the Treasury’s Green Book, which sets out guidance for public sector bodies on how they should make decisions about whether to commit taxpayers’ money to any policy, programme or project.

It is even thought to have contributed to the 2008 financial crash and the failure of people to look after the environment or protect their health by eating healthily to avoid obesity.

It is also widely used in the NHS including in the treatment of mental health patients, who according to the theory have a tendency to under-estimate the chances of negative experiences while over-estimating the likelihood of positive events.

The new study, published in the journal Cognitive Psychology, used computer simulations and analysis people’s behaviour to find no evidence to support the existence of optimism bias. The study demonstrated major flaws in previous research supporting the theory.

Flawed

Mr Shah said: ”The critical point is that the Government are using a science that is no longer robust when making policy decisions and they should instead seek to find alternative and robust reasons why government policy can be off kilter, for example why planned projects don’t run on time. This could help them to find more appropriate and effective ways to deal with these issues.“

Dr Adam Harris, a lecturer in experimental psychology at UCL, said: ”Previous studies, which have used flawed methodologies to claim that people are optimistic across all situations and that this bias is ‘normal’, are now in serious doubt.

“This assumption that people are optimistically biased is being used to guide large infrastructure projects, with the aim of managing expectations around how much projects will cost and how long they will take to complete. Our research supports a re-examination of optimism bias before allowing it to guide policy.”

iNews

https://inews.co.uk

Sign up to The Essential Newsletter

Email address:

Get daily news updates

The i's Essential Daily Briefing

We know that sometimes it’s easier for us to come to you with the news. That's why our new email newsletter will deliver a mobile-friendly snapshot of inews.co.uk to your inbox every morning, from Monday to Saturday.

This will feature the stories you need to know, as well as a curated selection of the best reads from across the site. Of course, you can easily opt out at any time, but we're confident that you won't.