April 5, 2012

Thursday Weather Update

With decent moisture and mildly cooler temperatures, low RH isn’t quite the issue it’s been for most of the week. Winds out of the southwest are starting to pick up, but with sustained speeds expected to remain a little below 15 mph. Some gusts into the middle/upper teens could occur, though.

The big story today will be severe weather potential. With daytime heating creating some modest instability, and a better synoptic setup, we’ll see either new storms develop over the Panhandle, and/or the rejuvenation of storms currently to our west.

Things don’t look very good for tornadic development, but an isolated one spun up by localized conditions isn’t impossible – especially later in the Tampa area as storms move onshore. The main threat, though, will be strong, straight-line winds.

I’d be a little more doubtful of a severe hail threat as far south as Florida, though.

The strongest storms could at least include some small hail, though. The current storms moving out over the Gulf to our west should survive as they move to the east.

As we head into tonight, the severe threat will pivot to the peninsula as that batch of storms move onshore, though the threat should be diminishing.

A potential threat could continue tomorrow in South Florida ahead of the cold front, but potential stable air from today’s activity, or if upper support doesn’t materialize, that threat could vanish. With dry air moving in behind the front, low RH looks to return this weekend, and potentially into next week.

A concern could exist if we do see a second front move in early next week, as it would likely be dry, and bring only more dry air and windier conditions.

AG-ER

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