Meteorologists expect a relatively inactive 2015 hurricane season

According to Texas State Climatologist John Nielson-Gammon, current climate conditions point to a decrease in tropical system activity in 2015.

According to Texas State Climatologist John Nielson-Gammon, current climate conditions point to a decrease in tropical system activity in 2015.

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According to Texas State Climatologist John Nielson-Gammon, current climate conditions point to a decrease in tropical system activity in 2015.

According to Texas State Climatologist John Nielson-Gammon, current climate conditions point to a decrease in tropical system activity in 2015.

Meteorologists expect a relatively inactive 2015 hurricane season

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Melanie Feuk

mfeuk@hcnonline.com

With the increase of intense rainfall hitting the Southeast region of the United States, questions may arise concerning the severity of the 2015 hurricane season.

Galveston and the greater Houston area have seen several devastating tropical systems throughout history. Some of the more recent systems, like Alicia, Rita and Ike, may loom in the minds of residents who experienced the effects of hurricanes firsthand.

“Ike was a Category 2 and had dramatic effects, including wind damage and power outages,” Kent Prochazka, meteorologist at the National Weather Service of Houston and Galveston, said. “Category 2 and larger that have reached mainland have had a lot of impact going back to 1850. More than 15 have come through.

“More recently, the ones with the biggest impact go through Galveston County and move northward and to the west; showing more wind threat, rain threat and even tornado threat. Since the 1920s, there have been 12.

“We’ve only had four Category 3-5 hurricanes. The most recent was Alicia.”

According to Prochazka, for areas north of downtown Houston, the worst time for a Houston-bound hurricane to make land fall is during the day.

“If they make landfall during the day, it could be over the Houston area at night,” Prochazka said. “Tropical systems breathe in and out. During the day, heat will force the storm away from the center. At night, it will coalesce over the Houston metro area and move north. Hurricane forces are more extreme at night.”

In regard to both the Galveston and Houston areas, Prochazka states that in the event of a hurricane, the combined areas’ biggest threat is heavy rainfall, as most fatalities inland are from flooding.

Texas State Climatologist John Nielson-Gammon agrees.

“Any place less than 30 feet above sea level is vulnerable to storm surge,” Nielson-Gammon said. “The most dangerous part of a hurricane is flooding.”

He said this is not the case for northeast Harris County and Montgomery County.

“Generally, wind damage is the biggest danger for northeast Harris County,” said Nielson-Gammon. “Not just directly, but the damages from trees blowing over and snapping off, and so forth. They can take out power lines, causing problems with power outages.”

The extent of wind damage varies based on several factors.

“Winds are strongest near the coastline and decrease over land,” Nielson-Gammon said. “The rate at which it weakens depends on how rapidly they’re moving. Hurricane Audrey, which was a Category 4 hurricane, was fast when it hit landfall and so it dissipated rapidly.”

The biggest variable is the hurricane’s path. The nature of weather patterns, so far, eludes modern technology’s capacity for consistently accurate predictions.

“There’s no real track for hurricanes on that scale,” Nielson-Gammon said. “They can hit anywhere along the coast. They can form in the Gulf, come through the Florida Straits and Cuba, or through Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula like Ike did. We just can’t say whether it will hit one area versus another.”

The good news is, according to Nielson-Gammon, despite recent climate changes, the odds favor less tropical activity than normal in 2015.

“With hurricanes, there’s been no increase in frequency,” Nielson-Gammon said. “The strongest factors that affect hurricane frequency are El Niño and ocean temperatures; both of which are actually pointing toward reduced activity this year.

“The main factor we see increasing is the amount of rain that occurs. In this region of the United States, we’re getting more intense rainfall, which is definitely attributable to increased temperatures.”