I think it’s more of quadratic curve. It’d be linear if there were no password aging, no reuse restrictions, and if there weren’t so many different complexity requirements out there, everything from “exactly four digits” to “must sufficiently resemble 30 seconds of transmission line noise”.

When all else fails just type in all of your passwords in one at a time until you manage to get the right one.
Also clever me always does the stupid clever hints that normal me never understands when the time of need comes along.

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This site is a little project that lets me make fun of some things and sense of others. I use it to think a little more relationally without resorting to doing actual math.