Uncertainty surrounds Bay Area teams' closers

The Closer Identifier Algorithm (CIA) ran its record to 18-4 this week, chalking up "hits" with Francisco Rodriguez, Francisco Cordero (again) and Jonathon Broxton on an arguable technicality. But it also added a technicality "miss" with Bobby Parnell.

San Francisco Giants: A dearth of opportunities left CIA in the dark. Manager Bruce Bochy said that Santiago Casilla's status was under review, and since then neither he nor Sergio Romo has gotten a save. But Jeremy Affeldt has one.

While Bochy said Affeldt and Romo will share save opportunities, Casilla is still listed as a closer on the official depth chart, and might have gotten a save yesterday were it not for an inconvenient blister. We do not trust what managers say, only what they do, so we won't declare Casilla officially out yet. And, as promised, we will add a change to CIA's criteria to account for blown saves.

For his part, Casilla was a victim of bad luck at an inopportune time; July brought him a 25% home run-to-fly ball rate and a batting average on balls in play over .520. His skills are still as good as Affeldt's though, if not a tad better with a 114 BPV.

Affeldt clearly has a share of the job and CIA predicts he will hold is. His 40/13 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) is plenty strong, and his 107 BPV is good enough, but not spectacular. All three pitchers are in the mix until further notice.

Oakland A's: Regression to the mean is a far stronger force in a player's performance than his actual skills over a short sample. Ryan Cook is a case in point.

In the last month, Cook's skill set has done a U-turn; his strikeout rate over this period is a solid 8.7 K/9 and his walk rate plummeted to 1.7 BB/9, for an excellent 5.0 K/BB ratio and a 136 BPV. This is still not enough to make him a "hold" since the starting point was so low. His overall numbers are still weak, with a 2.1 K/BB and a 64 BPV, well below CIA minimums.

For his trouble, Cook's improvement has been met with a string of blown saves that resulted in Bob Melvin openly discussing a role change. CIA has been steadfast on Cook's chances, giving him a "lose" status from the day he got the job.

Since CIA already added a hit at Grant Balfour's expense, it is unsurprisingly less than sanguine about his chances should he ascend once more to the plum job in the pen. But, like Carlos Marmol's perfection since getting the job back, anything can happen.

Baltimore Orioles: After a rough month, CIA now predicts that Jim Johnson will lose the job. This is what happens when a marginally-skilled reliever has a string of success that gets swallowed up by regression to the mean. His strikeout rate (K/9) is weak, and his "hold" status was surprising enough that it engendered a change to CIA's criteria.

In the last month Johnson has a 4.96 ERA a 4.4 K/9 and a 2.6 BB/9. The first half of the season is a distant memory, and though this prediction may be surprising, this is a test case for an experiment like CIA. Very few analysts think he is vulnerable. And he may not be, but the cracks are showing.

Milwaukee Brewers: Just like that, it now appears that the closer role is John Axford's to lose yet again. And despite his struggles, he is now very close to meeting with CIA's approval. His 11.4 K/9 and 99 BPV augur well, and only his 2.4 K/BB keeps him from "hold" status. This result surprises me as well, which is the point of using CIA.

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The current version of CIA:

1. Does the pitcher have a share of the closer's job? In the cases we are writing about this will usually be yes, but it should apply to all relievers if it is valid.

If so, is his save percentage greater than 93% with 10 or more opportunities. If "yes" then "hold." If "no" proceed to step 2.

2. Is his strikeout rate (K/9) above 7.0?

3. Is his strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate above 2.5?

4. Is his BaseballHQ BPV above 80?

If the answer to conditions 2-4 is yes, then CIA predicts he'll keep the job. If the answer is no to any one of the conditions, it predicts he'll lose the job.

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About Steve Gardner

Steve's been with USA TODAY in one form or another since 1993. He started
at USATODAY.com in 1996, becoming the website's baseball editor in 1999, and
has written the fantasy baseball column for Sports Weekly since 2006. Follow
him on Twitter: @sgardnerUSAT.