April 20, 2007

Is Argentina turning the corner?

Not at all clear, according to Guillermo Calvo. I am sitting at a colloqium on Argentina organized by my colleague Federico Sturzenegger. Argentina has recovered nicely from its crash and has been growing at Asian rates since. Calvo thinks this is just a process of recovery: the country is only making up for lost time. But could this time be different? What is encouraging is that this recovery is export and investment- led, and investment focuses on tradables instead of nontradables. The government has had an active policy of keeping the currency undervalued. So an alternative, more optimistic view would be that Argentina is turning itself into an Asian country. But there is a long way to go...

Comments

1) If you look at the level of GDP growth, Argentina was playing catch up until Q4 05. After that it continued to grow, but at the cost of higher inflation

2) The governments response to the inflation problem has been to employ strict price controls and export constraints. The latter is being done in conjunction with keeping the currency undervalued to stimulate exports (yes, I know).

3) When inflation started showing signs of rising despite the price controls, the government resorted to outright data manipulation. This charge caused protests by workers at INDEC (the countries statistics agency).

4) So the key question is what will happen to growth in the future when the fiscal stimulus wears off. My bet is that they grow, but they won't be growing at Asian level rates.

I agree with the last post. Here from Chile, we can see and feel the efects of the price control and the export constraint. Chile import from Argentina two important products, meat and Natural gas, and in both, we have seen how the goverment has cut the export of those products to our country.

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