Paul Merson's Premier League predictions - Week 30

The main thing for Arsenal this week was not to get beaten by four or five at Bayern Munich - so to come away with a 1-1 draw will only give them confidence. The FA Cup is now theirs to lose and if they can get a top-four finish and a cup then that will be a major success. I don't think they can win the league because they've had too many injuries at the wrong time (Walcott, Ozil, Wilshere and Ramsey) and I think this game is about consolidating a top-four position now. Arsenal need to avoid defeat and not give Spurs a sniff of the top four. A draw keeps them six points clear with a game in hand and they should be able to put it to bed.

Tim Sherwood has been very honest about his players this week and fair play to him. Was that a good idea? I'll let you know at 6pm on Sunday! I think he made his comments about the character of his players, knowing that the games coming up were against Benfica and Arsenal. He might not have said it if they were playing Norwich and Crystal Palace this week! However, this is a derby game and I've played in too many to say a team is a cert to win it, but Tottenham are not playing well. They've fallen over the line a few times and I think Arsenal will have too much for them.

PAUL PREDICTS: 1-3

Man Utd v Liverpool (12.30pm, Sun, Sky Sports 1)

This is the home fans' cup final because if they can stop Liverpool winning the league they'll be more than happy. Manchester United have been put down as favourites for this game, simply because they're Manchester United, but I wouldn't make them favourites. If you go by their home form and everything that's happened this season then I don't see how they are favourites.

They need to change the way they play. Teams like West Brom, Swansea and Everton have given them a game at Old Trafford and it's always been you-have-a-shot-we-have-a-shot and if that happens on Sunday then Liverpool will undoubtedly win. They need to learn to be more patient and the wide players can't bomb forward and expose a back four, which is not the most experienced. If people like Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge get isolated with them and you combine it with Raheem Sterling's pace and Jordan Henderson's legs then I see Liverpool picking them off for fun. United need to be more disciplined than they have been in the last six months because if this game is open then I don't see anything but an away win.

PAUL PREDICTS: 1-3

Aston Villa v Chelsea (5pm, Sat, Sky Sports 1)

Chelsea have a nine-point lead over Man City and I would rather have the points than the games. I see where Jose Mourinho is coming from when he says they're not the favourites, but now City have got to play a lot of games and one slip-up could hand the title to Chelsea. If Man City win earlier in the day (and I think they will) then it will eat into the gap and Chelsea will need to take three points from what is a hard game. Villa won well against Norwich in their last match, taking them away from the relegation scrap a bit, and Christian Benteke got a couple so is back on form. I think Chelsea will have too much, but I think it will be a tight win for them.

PAUL PREDICTS: 1-2

Hull v Man City

This is a 12.45pm kick-off and they won't have got back from Barcelona until early on Thursday morning. Before they know it, the players will be back in a hotel again and it's a lot of travelling. However, I've not been too impressed by Hull lately. Yes, they won in the FA Cup but they got slaughtered by Newcastle the week before and if they play like that again then Manchester City will absolutely maul them. Draws are no good for City, so I expect them to go full monty here. Sergio Aguero's injury will make a difference, but I'll still say they will win.

PAUL PREDICTS: 1-3

Everton v Cardiff

Cardiff had a big win over Fulham last week (although I feared for them when it got to 1-1), but to win away at Everton would be taking it a bit far I think. Everton's season has fizzled out a little bit after they got knocked out of the FA Cup by Arsenal so I think it's important for them to win this game. The manager has been saying they could get into Europe, but the fans will start losing heart. I actually think they'll get a good result.

PAUL PREDICTS: 3-0

Fulham v Newcastle

Newcastle have picked up their form a little bit and had a great result at Hull a couple of weeks ago, despite what has happened with Alan Pardew. I think Fulham are pretty much relegated, but they just have to go out every week now and they simply have to win. They are really struggling, but I have to go for Newcastle. As I said last week, it could be "turn the lights out" for Fulham.

PAUL PREDICTS: 1-2

Southampton v Norwich

Norwich drew 1-1 with Stoke last week after getting battered away at Villa and they need to start winning their home games. Now they go to Southampton looking for points against a team with nothing to play for, except the players who want to get into the World Cup. It's nice to play those teams at home, especially if you go 1-0 up, but when you play teams like that away then it's hard because they play with a free spirit and are a danger. I will go for Southampton though because I think Norwich will be a bit negative.

PAUL PREDICTS: 2-0

Stoke v West Ham

I don't like going against Stoke at home. I went against them when Arsenal went there and I got that wrong, so I have to back them here. I think they will beat a West Ham side that have done well and turned a corner. They kept faith with a manager who has got all the experience in the world and it's worked a treat for them. Fair play to David Gold and David Sullivan for sticking by him when they could have easily gone the other way. I'll go for a narrow Stoke win.

PAUL PREDICTS: 1-0

Sunderland v Crystal Palace

This is a massive game. Crystal Palace need to go there and make sure they don't get beat - because a Sunderland win would see Palace dragged right back into the mire. They have always been in the relegation battle, but they've done really well under Tony Pulis and people have been waxing lyrical about them - but if they lose this game they will be right back in trouble. I actually thought it was a good thing for Sunderland to go out of the FA Cup and not have a backlog of games in the league. I'll just go for Sunderland.

PAUL PREDICTS: 1-0

Swansea v West Brom

As soon as Pepe Mel came in at West Brom I started to worry about them. He has no experience of the Premier League, they've sold one forward (Shane Long) and another is banned (Nicolas Anelka). I don't know who is supposed to be looking after that club, but they are on a slippery slope and I worry for them. Swansea are at home and have got nothing to play for, but I still think they've got too much for West Brom if they play well.