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They surprisingly have MLB's best record since May 24....but I wouldn't too much stock in it, they've played some truly wretched teams in that stretch and I think 6 of the 10 losses in that stretch are to 3 of the 4 only decent teams they've played in that stretch (2 each vs. the D'Backs, Padres & Braves). Obviously, they aren't as bad as they played in the first 8 weeks of the season, but likewise aren't nearly as good as they've been playing here, mainly because it's been JV level competition to end the first half of the season. 7 of their first 9 games post all Star Break are at the Phillies & Braves, and than the 10 days leading into July 31 are at home against the Rockies, Dodgers & Braves (with 3 in Arizona following that), so we'll get a better understanding of where the Nats are after play on August 4. Unfortunately, with the new deadline in play this year the team can't wait until August 4 to conclude whether or not they are a playoff team, and unlike last year when they ****ed it up, they can't afford to ****it up again this year. Too me, this still looks like a team in the middle. I still believe the Braves are the class of the division, but they maybe in the wildcard hunt, but really the NL's is the Dodgers to lose this year, so what do you do if you are GM Mike Rizzo?? Easy (at least for me):
1) First and foremost, you set a firm July 28 deadline for Rendon. If he doesn't sign an extension by then, then you take the best possible package you can but in that scenario even if the Nats are somehow in first (they won't be) you have to trade him. That still gives the team, and him enough time to work out a potentially extension, but also gives Rizzo enough time to evaluate potentially returns and try to maximize the return, then it goes 1 of 2 ways:
1) If you are within 3 games of the division, I would go ahead and put my chips on the table and upgrade the bullpen which I believe has dropped a notch from "historically awful" to just "bad" but would still need reinforcements. And I wouldn't go for just 1 centerpiece item (i.e. a Ken Giles, Will Smith), but I would target lesser known relievers and add quantity over quality: Jake Diekman, Alex Colome, Craig Stammen (if the Padres sell) would probably cost just as much, actually probably a little more in this relievers market than adding Giles, Smith, Shane Greene from Detroit, etc, but combined would probably do just as well, plus you have a 1/3 chance of one of those guys turning into a lights out 8th inning stopper. Also, I believe Colome is the only one on that list that is a closer, so you wouldn't be upsetting the apple cart, even though Sean Doolittle has said all the right things.
2) If you are more than 4 games out, anyone that is a FA following the season should be gone for a little more than a bucket of baseballs: Howie Kendrick, Matt Adams, Brian Dozier. None of that trio will return anything, but as I always like to say getting something is infinitely better than getting nothing, and getting something has an infinitely better chance of turning into something than nothing does. Christian Guzman was nothing more than a fun drinking game by the time his career in DC was finished (1 shot of your choice of an adult beverage if he grounded out to the pitcher, middle infielder, or struck out; 2 shots if he grounded out to the corner infielders; 3 shots if he flied out to an OF'r or 4 shots if he reached base), we turned him into what was at that time a no nothing A pitcher for the Rangers that didn't have much of an upside, the quintessential "lottery ticket" player. Well, that no name pitcher was named Tanner Roark, who had a couple of good to very good seasons with the Nats, but because he was behind Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Max Scherzer & Gio Gonzalez in the Nats rotation he never received his due, and just this past off season we turned Roark into another Tanner, Tanner Rainey who's helped stabilize the Nats beleaguered bullpen. They also should listen to offers for Doolittle and Scherzer. Not saying you do trade them, but if Brian Cashman stupidly offered Gleybar Torress as the centerpiece along with Esteban Florial, and Loasiga, the SP for Scherzer you'd be foolish NOT to take that, likewise if the Cubs offered Albert Almora, Ian Happ, or David Bote for Doolittle, or the Rangers offered Patrick Wisdom, or the Cards offered Tyler O'Neil you'd have to think about taking that at least.
3) Something else to keep an eye on: Buying an selling? 3 team trades are tough to pull off, even tougher in season, but Rizzo has been known to be a shrewd operator and pull deals out of nowhere so here's a potential, completely made up trade scenario that involves a 3 team trade, but also buying and selling:
Rays get:
Adam eaton
Royals get:
Prospects (mostly from the Rays)
Nats get:
Whit Merrifield, maybe a few spare parts moving around. Now, why make this deal?? From the Rays perspective, they need some offense, and with their budget they can't spend much. Even though he's been in the league a relatively long time, Eaton is especially cheap, a team friendly contract guy, and that's someone that could not only help them this year but is under contract through next year as well on a very team friendly deal. For the Nats you've upgraded from Eaton to Merrifield, but I think is better upgrade. Merrifield doesn't have the injury history like Eaton does and he has more power, more speed, and is more versitale. Where as Eaton can only play the corner OF spots due to his knee injury, Merrifield can play all 3 OF spots along with the infield. He'd come close to replicating Rendon's offensive numbers. And for the Royals, Merrifield is one of the greatest assets that they have, and like Eaton has an extremely team friendly deal. He's due for arbitration soon, and will probably price his way out of KC by the time they have their next playoff caliber team together, and right now the price will never be higher.

Off season moves: This was quite a busy off season for GM Mike Rizzo as over a third of the 25 man roster from last season has turned over. We'll get to the biggest one first, some guy who wore a #34 here signed with the stupid team with the ugly "P" logo up north, but at least that's the one thing all us Nats fans, Braves fans, and Mets fans can agree upon now: These Philly fans are going to be annoying this year Their biggest addition was the addition of D'Backs LH starting pitcher Patrick Corbin. Other minor moves:
After trading Matt Adams to the Cards in August, they resigned him
After trading Gio Gonzalez to the Brewers in August, he signed a minor league deal with the Yankees
After trading Daniel Murphy to the Cubs in August, he signed a 2 year deal with the Rockies
Starting catcher Matt Weiters signed with the Cards as Yadi's back up, and the Nats have 2 new catchers: former Nat Kurt Suzuki resigned in Wash after spending the last few years in Atlanta, while they traded a prospect to the Indians for their starting catcher Yan Gomes who will be the opening day starter in Washington.
Brian Dozier was signed to a 1 year deal to be the new second basemen.
They lost Greg Holland (D'Backs), Kelvim Herrera (White Sox), and Tim Collins (Cubs minor leagues) and replaced them with a trade for Marlins reliever Kyle Barraclough and former Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal who missed all of last year coming off Tommy John surgery, while Mark Reynolds signed on with the Rockies.
They traded Tanner Roark to the Reds (I believe the first Tanner for Tanner trade in MLB history) and replaced him in the rotation with Annibal Sanchez, and they finished off the busy off season with the signing of ex-Astros LHP Tony Sipp.

Best case for the Nats in 2019: I actually like this team better than last year's team which was picked to run away with the division, and without Harper and his sideshow antics, hopefully they can just put their heads down and play baseball. Maybe one of the reasons I like this team is that Strasburg, Juan Soto, Eaton, Turner, Rendon aren't going to speak bulletin board material to the media, so I think they'll be quite boring, no one will want to talk about them, but that will be better because we can sneak up on the Phillies (the off season champion. Talk to the Padres & Blue Jays about how that "championship" feels) and last year's winner the Braves. Ending last season they had 3 major holes on the roster: C, 2b & RP, and they have fixed all 3 areas. The division is tough, but Rizzo overhauled the roster, if Soto can continue to produce from last year, Eaton stays healthy, Rendon can put the contract talks past him, and we get competent outings out of our bullpen arms, and Scherzer's arm stays on, this is a playoff caliber team. Whether or not they get there remains to be seen, but if everything in that prior sentence happens, they should finish in the 85-92 win range which hopefully will be enough for a division and or Wildcard.

Worst case for the Nats in 2019: After bumbling his way through 2018, Martinez bumbles his way through 2019 as well. The bullpen for a second year in a row is a complete disaster. After a whole off season looking at the scouting reports, teams figure out Soto, so instead of the Juanderful one he's just an average player in 2019. Taylor will already start the season on the injured list, and Robles and Eaton soon follow him to the IL, so now a team already short on OF depth as it is, is drowning in it. After being at the top of his game and top of his craft for the last decade, Scherzer finally shows wear and tear on his arm and elbow, and struggles through a .500, 4.75 ERA season. Rendon struggles through this season with the contract talks looming, and after getting nothing for Harper, team brass deals him at the deadline. With the competition in the division, any of the above happening will surely end whatever playoff hopes they may have.

My predictions for 2019: Well, this will be fun! Any divisional games will be must watch action on MLB TV this year. As I said above I actually like the makeup of this team better than the one that started 2018. Martinez, through trial & error will be much better equipped to make better decisions this year than last year. The bullpen is better. The OF is better. The starting rotation is probably better. The catcher position is infinitely better, while only the bench has probably downgraded from last year. Everything but the bench and possibly the starting rotation is better in 2018 than in 2019. Of course the division is much improved, but I think they get contributions out of everyone, and they sneak by the Mets & Braves for the division title, and as a bonus point, 3 playoff round wins too. This team has no expectations, it's all "gloom and doom because #34 is gone." That's the time to go out and win your first playoff series!

First game of the year on Thursday: Jacob deGrom (10-9, 1.70, 2018 Cy Young winner) takes on Max Scherzer (18-7, 2.53 Cy runner up) in a great pitchers duel! Game time from Nats park at 1:05.

Basically everything I predicted was true for the first half. No bulleten board material for these Nats this year, we let Brodie Van Wagenen & Harper take that this year, yet BOTH of those teams (BVW's Mets and Harper's Phillies) are currently looking up at the Nats in the standings heading into the unofficial start of the second half, despite the fact the Nats had the 2nd worst record in the NL as recently as May 16; on July 12 they hold the NL's 3rd best record. Scherzer, man, words can't explain. He is the pitching equivalent of Mike Trout, watching him was like watching Mariano Rivera come into the game, completely dominant. He's not going to be pitching this well forever, but this is greatness. If you get a chance to see him pitch live, you should definitely do that.
Bullpen as correctly predicted was an unmitigated disaster, but seemed to have turned it around. Dozier, a notoriously slow starter I think will have a big second half, Strasburg is pitching great, Robles is fantastic, Soto's having a good second year (not great like last year though) Eaton's been healthy, Rendon's finally an all star and having an excellent season, Yan Gomes/Kurt Suzuki are a perfectly fine battery. I'm not going to say it's smooth sailing in the second half as I still think the Braves are the class of the division, but I think this is a second place team in the division and should be a wildcard contender.

Scherzer, man, words can't explain. He is the pitching equivalent of Mike Trout, watching him was like watching Mariano Rivera come into the game, completely dominant. .

He is off the charts great this season. He leads the NL in innings pitched, strikeouts, lowest home run rate, strikeouts per nine innings and in Fielding Independent ERA (2.00) which is lower than his regular ERA (2.30). He has been striking out nearly eight hitters for every walk issued.

He is in all probability headed for his 4th Cy Young award, and if Bellinger and Yelich weren't having such good years, he'd probably be the favorite for MVP.

Aside to Justin Verlander.....if the reason you are giving up so many home runs is that the ball is juiced, how come they aren't making Scherzer use the juiced balls? His 0.6 home runs per nine innings is the lowest of his career.

Basically everything I predicted was true for the first half. No bulleten board material for these Nats this year, we let Brodie Van Wagenen & Harper take that this year, yet BOTH of those teams (BVW's Mets and Harper's Phillies) are currently looking up at the Nats in the standings heading into the unofficial start of the second half, despite the fact the Nats had the 2nd worst record in the NL as recently as May 16; on July 12 they hold the NL's 3rd best record. Scherzer, man, words can't explain. He is the pitching equivalent of Mike Trout, watching him was like watching Mariano Rivera come into the game, completely dominant. He's not going to be pitching this well forever, but this is greatness. If you get a chance to see him pitch live, you should definitely do that.
Bullpen as correctly predicted was an unmitigated disaster, but seemed to have turned it around. Dozier, a notoriously slow starter I think will have a big second half, Strasburg is pitching great, Robles is fantastic, Soto's having a good second year (not great like last year though) Eaton's been healthy, Rendon's finally an all star and having an excellent season, Yan Gomes/Kurt Suzuki are a perfectly fine battery. I'm not going to say it's smooth sailing in the second half as I still think the Braves are the class of the division, but I think this is a second place team in the division and should be a wildcard contender.

I agree Braves win division, Nats are a WC team.

I actually disagree with the massive selloffs all teams do, and yes BVW will sell off. I would have disagreed with your sell off Nats list a few months back. The days of getting decent or more value in a sell off have ended. Its ok to sell a chip you never want back, but any team expecting to regain a rental that off season is luny. The Mets will NOT have any shot at Wheeler as a FA. The Nats no shot at Rendon that way. Any agent who fails to steer his client away from such a 2nd round with old team should have no clients. Agents must push teams to sign guys longer-term earlier - advising them that doing a Round 2 for any reason undermines all future free agents.

BTW, I will not hazard a guess at your WC foe this early. So much NL parity, to be frank, I anticipate an embarrassing NL 2nd wc w-l at year end, not much above .500.

I don't understand. This is a team that has yet to win a playoff series, they have a golden opportunity with everyone in the lineup healthy and hitting well, a great starting rotation, even with Scherzer having yet to throw a pitch since the beginning of the month and a big glaring weakness: the middle of the bullpen. Now I know on here earlier this year I said it would probably be better to add depth than quality, quantity over quality, all fine and good if that quantity is decent. Fernando Rodney is NOT good. Javy Guerra is NOT good. Drew Pomeranz (who they were enquiring about last night) outside of his last 5 innings (a very small sample size at that) NOT good. Yet 2 of those 3 pitchers are currently with the major league club, albeit for peanuts. Jake Diekman, a quality reliever putting up good strikeout numbers for KC was to be had and to be had cheaply. He's a good reliever. Mark Melancon, a former Nat, quality arm was to be had and cheaply if you were to take on some money (but lord knows the Lerner's NEVER do that). He would've been a quality reliever. Joe Biagini ok numbers for the Blue Jays but could be had cheaply and comes with control to be had as well. And I could go on and on....so let's see what Rizzo does to improve this area of the team, pretty much the only dead weight on the squad.
Trade number 1: Daniel Hudson from the Blue Jays. Now to be fair this is not a bad trade. If he made this trade, he fell asleep and his phone died and this was the only deal he made today we wouldn't be having this post. 6-3 with a bad Blue Jays team 3 era 48 strikeouts in 48 innings, 1.27 WHIP, not great, but pretty good, probably better than all but Doolittle we have down there. Granted he's having a career year (career 3.92 ERA, 593 strikeouts in 667.2 innings but the same 1.27 WHIP), but he has postseason experience pitched with the D'Backs in the playoffs, pitched with the Dodgers in the playoffs. If Rizzo ended the day here it might not be so bad, but unfortunately he didn't so let's move onto
Trade number 2: Roenis Elias from the Seattle Mariners. Now he is a lefty, so I could see why this would make some sense (matchup for Rizzo, Bellinger/Pederson, Harper, Freeman, Markaikis in the playoffs) so on the surface it doesn't seem so bad. I'm not going to say he sucks, but he's certainly not good either: 4.40 ERA, granted on a bad team like Hudson but very different and that's because unlike Hudson who's Jays play in a very extreme hitter friendly ballpark (Rogers Centre) and who's divisional road stadiums are probably top 5 in the AL in terms of offense: (Fenway Park, Yankee Stadium, and Camden Yards in Baltimore). Elias meanwhile has his home at pitcher friendly Safeco (now known as T-Mobile Park) and outside of Texas and maybe Houston, the other 2 divisional road ballparks, the Big A in Anaheim (God only knows what it's called now, it seems to go through a name change a year) and the O.Co Coliseum in Oakland are more pitcher friendly then hitter friendly. So the fact Elias is pitching almost a run and a half worse than Hudson despite pitching predominantly in pitcher friendly surroundings is very concerning and number 2) as a lefty specialist he probably only faces 1 or 2 batters a game. Now I don't know how many of his inherited runners have scored but he's pitched 1 fewer inning than Hudson has yet has allowed 10 more runs (and 7 more earned runs) than Hudson has, so he's gotta be putting quite a few more runners on base anyways. So yah I would've passed on him he wasn't needed. And now bring up the weird trade.
Trade number 3: Hunter Strickland also from the Mariners. Even though they came from the same team I believe these were 2 separate deals. Not that it matters because it should've been 0 deals from this team, but whatever. And yes, in case you are wondering this is the same Hunter Strickland that held a grudge for 2.5 years because of some postseason home runs Bryce Harper hit in a postseason series that Strickland's team WON, and who started a brawl because of it that one of the Nats MASN announcers had to retire from baseball because of it. So yah I don't see why he would fit at all, but this is the same GM that traded for Papelbon, so obviously what do I know . Anyways to get back to Strickland.....yah he sucks, but has great "upside" so I guess that's why he was acquired. If he had so much upside why did the Giants non tender him then?? Oh yah that's right, because he's a lunatic, a hot head, has a great 100 MPH but has no idea where he is throwing it, and was injury prone. Anyways enough about that, of course he got injured about 2 weeks into the season and just threw in his 4th game the other day. Let's just say even in the 4 games he was pitching, the Mariners probably would've been better off if he wasn't pitching as he has an unsightly 8.10 ERA in 3 1/3 innings of work, though to be fair and it really pains me to say this because I think Papelbon is the one person I like less than this guy all of his runs allowed did come in 1 game, and than he went on the IL the very next day, so take out that game and he has a 0.00 ERA in 3 innings. Still with his attitude he's not a guy I'm touching with a 1,000 foot pole. So yah, 3 "additions" to the gold awful bullpen, and honestly I think they are marginally better now than they were at this time yesterday. If you've won a World Series hell I'd take any playoff series win I could definitely see "alright we'll hold onto our prospects, maybe some will pan out, maybe some won't, but we won, so let's try to build from within. Championships should give you a 5 year grace window. That's why I don't care that the Royals suck right now, the only thing I'd made that the Royals have done is that started the rebuild a year too late so if you want to build a new core around Jorge Soler, Bubba Starling, Aldaberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier and then fill in the pieces to complement those cornerstones that's fine. If you want to take the next 5 years off to go search for life on Mars fine, I don't care! They won a World Series and probably would have 2 World Series in 5 years if not for Bumgarner, so whatever GM Dayton Moore wants to do I won't have a problem. Now on the flip side I also don't mind trading prospects if you have a chance to win assuming it's for the right piece. Now THAT'S the part that gets me with the Nats, and let me explain, going back to 2012, the first year they were really an NL contender:
2012: By the trade deadline it was pretty obvious that: 1) they were going to be in the playoffs because IIRC the NL that year was bad and 2) Stephen Strasburg was coming up on the innings limit and the shutdown, so priority should've been a starting pitcher, preferably a veteran one that can slot in at game 2 or 3 and be a clubhouse presence. Ryan Demspter that year was the PERFECT fit as he was available, fit both criteria, and as a righty but behind Gio Gonzalez for a great lhp-rhp mix. To this day I STILL don't know how or why Rizzo didn't get him. I don't care who's in AA or AAA or A, you make that trade, whatever Texas wants (assuming it's not a key piece of the major league roster that you can't easily replace) you give them. They got fooled into thinking this winning stuff is easy, we'll be here every year, we'll stay with what we have, and learn from our mistakes going forward for future seasons. Bad idea. I don't think that team is beating the Giants, but they easily beat the Cards if they have Dempster starting that series instead of Edwin Jackson.
2013: Were injured, didn't really come together as a full unit until mid to end of August. I don't even remember what, if anything they did in 2013.
2014: Were the best team in the NL by a mile that year but lose to the Giants mainly because of Matt Williams. Not much of anything they could've done differently here except not hiring Williams. Could've maybe gotten a reliever as that was about the time the Rafael Soriano ship left the port and would've been nice to have another arm down there, but the team was ready to go back to Storen and put their trust back in him, so that was a fine no move. They had the talent and the roster to not only advance past the NLDS but to win the World Series (Cardinals, Royals, Orioles, no one in baseball was beating that 2014 team if they got by the Giants) unfortunately they were managed by a baffoon!
2015: What ownership is thinking "we are on course for our 3rd postseason appearance in 4 years and we have no proven closer." So they go out and trade for Papelbon which is STILL effecting the Nats 4 years later, as you'll see later. As correctly predicted the second this became official this was an awful trade and the stench still lingers. The only reason this isn't a full out Chernobyl is because Pivetta has done $#!t with the Phillies and the other guy they gave up hasn't done anything either. Not only do they not win a first round series with this "proven, championship caliber closer" they don't even make the playoffs as the team self destructs in August and September, culminating with the incumbent (who was actually having a better year at the time) breaking his hand at a locker after a loss in September and has never been the same sense.
2016: Hey what do you know, that Papelbon trade really wasn't good, now we need to go out and get another closer. We'll go after rentals because Chapman and Jansen are gonna be available in the offseason so we'll spend money in December for them, so hopefully we don't have to give up much. Unfortunately, closing pitchers were in short supply that year, and teams knew we needed one, so they uppded the price and the Pirates took on a promising LHP at the time named Felipe Rivero who had A, A+ strikeout stuff in return for a rental. That's one I could live with. They knew what the needed, they gave up a stud to get it, and unfortunately it didn't work out. Maybe in an alternate universe Bob Sendley…..ooops Henley (he did it again today too ) holds Werth at 3rd so they have 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs and they get a hit, so even if Pederson hits the home run it doesn't matter because instead of 1-1 it's 3-1 and maybe he can go another batter. or maybe Pederson doesn't hit the home run. They went for it, they tried, didn't work out, can't blame them.
2017: Um yah, so that offseason "sign a Chapman or Jansen plan" didn't really work out and he planned for no plan B in case it didn't work out, so we're going midseason closer/reliever shopping again! Hey, instead of just trading for Rentals, maybe we'll give up another prospect, 2 more lottery ticket type players and get controllable arms, so we don't have to do this again next year. Madson and Doolittle are both pretty good, both controllable beyond this year, Billy what do you want? Jesus Luzardo and others?? Deal. At least we have a closer in 2018.
2018: This was the weird one where Rizzo had potential Harper offers on the table that ownership wouldn't let him take. Even though they weren't bad they weren't good either so they should've sold a couple of those impending FA's/year away from FA guys and try to recoup something on the farm, or either make another bullpen trade because Doolittle at the time was injured and try to turn it around. Instead he didn't make 1 addition, traded Brandon Kintzler who had control for virtually nothing, DFA'd Shawn Kelley, traded Matt Adams, Gio Gonzalez, and Daniel Murphy in August for virtually nothing. So they pretty much stayed in neutral, tossed a couple good relief pitchers in the garbage bin for Rizzo only knows what reasons, didn't add anyone, and yes they did make a run in September when Doo came back it was too little too late, they were way to flawed to go on a deep October run.
2019: Everyone knows the underbelly of the Nats bullpen needed improvement and yes I agree that depth should've been addressed over quality but they needed better depth. I honestly believe they could have 3 relievers, and be in a much better spot than they are now if they threw in some prospects. The White Sox can say all they want "oh Alex Colome is unavailable." Well, guess what?? Nobody except maybe Mike Trout and a few others are unavailable mainly because almost anyone aside from a select few can be had for a price. The White Sox made Colome unavailable because nobody was going was going to pay that price. I believe the Nats could paid that price if they wanted. They could've had Diekman for about the price they paid for Elias & Strickland. They could've had Greene for Carter Kieboom and a few others. The Braves were bold and went for it because even as division champs in '18 & '13 they haven't made it out of the NLDS since 2001 so they took a chance. The Nats Kieboom had a cup of coffee in the majors this year stunk for his cameo appearance, put his tearing up AAA pitching. Maybe he got better and will be a star, maybe he's a glorified AAAA player. Greene is a proven closer that can get guys out and whatever team he ended up on was going to be a huge boost to whatever team acquired him because it could drop everyone else down a rung. The Braves were the bold, much like the Nats were in 2016, and went for something that could possible get them to the NLCS, or World Series. Greene would've no doubt made the Nats one of the Dodgers top threats when you look at the rotation and than innings 8 to 9 in the bullpen but decided to throw 3 pieces of $#!t at the wall and hope they stick. Maybe the Braves lose in the NLDS anyways, but this clearly makes the Braves the favorites in the division (not only do they now have a better bullpen, they've won 6 of the last 10 games played with each other with 6 of the 10 being played in Washington).

If I had to guess right now I'd say 2nd place East vs. 2nd place Central in the NL Wildcard game. I think we can eliminate the West from the Wildcard, too mediocre and too many games left against each other and the Dodgers. At least the Nats, Mets, Phillies have the Marlins to beat up, and the Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs get to beat up on the Pirates (who have been atrocious since the All Star game) to get some wins.

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