GUINEA-BISSAU: IRIN Focus on Elections [19991124]

GUINEA-BISSAU: IRIN Focus on Elections

[The opinions expressed in this report do not necessarily
reflect those of the United Nations]

BISSAU, 24 November (IRIN) - Few dispute the fact that
the main issues now in Guinea-Bissau include lasting
peace and stability, observers say, but there is less
consensus on the identity of the person the 500,000
voters will choose on Sunday to steer their nation
on a peaceful, stable course.

Representatives of political parties said they had registered
no significant incidents of violence during the election
campaign and that they hoped things would remain that
way after the polls. "Whichever party wins,"
the leader of the Frente da Liberacao da Guine (FLING),
Catengul Mendy, told IRIN, "stability is a point
on which there should be a consensus."

Guinea-Bissau and its 1.2 million people have had to
live with instability for much of its recent past.
A liberation war started in 1963 ended in independence
in 1974. Six years later, in 1980, President Luis Cabral
was overthrown by Joao Bernardo Vieira, who survived
two alleged coup attempts before the bulk of the armed
forces, grouped under the self-styled Military Junta,
rose up against him on 7 June 1998.

The uprising was sparked when Vieira dismissed Brigadier
General Ansumane Mane on 6 June 1998, allegedly for
not preventing the smuggling of weapons to separatist
guerrillas in Casamance, southern Senegal. It caused
the displacement of some 350,000 people, some of whom
returned to the capital in September and October, only
to be displaced by fresh clashes between the Military
Junta and Vieira loyalists supported by troops sent
in by Senegal and Guinea at the then president's request.

A third outbreak of fighting occurred for four days
in January 1999, around two months after Vieira's government
and the Military Junta signed an agreement in Abuja.
The November 1998 Abuja Agreement provided for a co-government
between Vieira and his foes, but a dispute over the
disarming of the presidential guard led to his overthrow
on 6-7 May by the Military Junta.

Sunday's elections were also among the provisions of
the Abuja Agreement, which stated that the Junta should
cease to exist after the polls. However, there has
been some uncertainty in recent days over its future
role in state affairs.

The uncertainty was fuelled by the appearance last week
of the Magna Carta, an unsigned document purportedly
issued by the Military Junta, which later disassociated
itself from it.

The Magna Carta, which was published by the local media,
was reportedly meant to be signed by the country's
political parties. It stated that the Junta was to
remain in existence for two five-year presidential
terms and it included provisions requiring the president
to consult the Junta on key issues such as the appointment
of senior state officials.

Members of civil society saw the document, which was
rejected by the country's political parties, as anything
but reassuring.

"At first the Military Junta had a very correct
position: 'We don't want power, we are doing what needs
to be done and once the elections are finished we are
going back to barracks'," an NGO source told IRIN.
"But now some elements of the Junta seem to want
power."

While the Magna Carta has reportedly been withdrawn,
negotiations on the future of the Junta continued this
week. Sources told IRIN political party leaders are
scheduled to meet with the Junta on Saturday, the eve
of the election, which will see 12 candidates vying
for the post of president.

Humanitarian officials and members of civil society
told IRIN they did not expect any of the candidates
would win an absolute majority in Guinea-Bissau's second
multiparty elections since independence from Portugal
in 1974/5.

The frontrunners, they say, include Kumba Yala of the
Partido da Renovacao Social (PRS) who lost the first
multiparty elections in 1994 to Vieira, who was president
at the time. The results of that vote were disputed
by Yala's supporters. Another main contender is Interim
President Malam Bacai Sanha, head of the transitional
government that has ruled the country since Vieira
was ousted on 7 May by the Military Junta. Sanha comes
from the Partido Africano da Independencia da Guine
e Cabo Verde (PAIGC) which ruled the country since
independence.

Others are independents Faustino Imbali and Fernando
Gomes, head of the Liga de Direitos Humanos da Guine-Bissau
until he joined the political fray, and - according
to 'O Diario de Guine-Bissau' - Salvador Tchongo, a
dissident from one of the main parties, Resistencia
da Guine-Bissau (RGB).

Should there be no clear winner, the two best placed
candidates will go on to a second round, which should
be held in January.

The legislatives, observers say, are likely to be dominated
by RGB and Uniao para a Mudanca (UM), which have not
fielded presidential candidates, and the PAIGC.

Eleven other parties are vying for the 102 seats in
parliament - 100 to be elected in Guinea-Bissau and
two by overseas voters

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