After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »

September

9/25

Real Betis4

55%

26%

Levante0

19%

BET

LEV

Adjusted goals

3.7

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.3

0.4

Non-shot xG

1.0

0.9

9/24

Real Sociedad2

50%

24%

Valencia3

26%

SOC

VAL

Adjusted goals

2.1

3.2

Shot-based xG

1.2

1.7

Non-shot xG

1.4

0.8

9/24

Las Palmas0

44%

28%

Leganés2

28%

PAL

LEG

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.6

Shot-based xG

1.0

1.6

Non-shot xG

1.2

0.9

9/24

Eibar0

52%

26%

Celta Vigo4

22%

EIB

VIG

Adjusted goals

0.0

3.1

Shot-based xG

0.8

1.1

Non-shot xG

1.0

1.0

9/24

Getafe4

36%

29%

Villarreal0

35%

GET

VLR

Adjusted goals

3.7

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.3

1.1

Non-shot xG

1.9

1.3

9/24

Espanyol4

51%

27%

Deportivo1

22%

ESP

DEP

Adjusted goals

3.6

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.8

1.7

Non-shot xG

1.6

1.3

9/23

Girona0

10%

15%

Barcelona3

76%

GIR

BAR

Adjusted goals

0.0

3.2

Shot-based xG

0.8

1.3

Non-shot xG

1.1

1.2

9/23

Málaga3

33%

29%

Athletic Bilbao3

38%

MGA

BIL

Adjusted goals

3.2

2.5

Shot-based xG

2.1

1.8

Non-shot xG

1.5

0.7

9/23

Alavés1

14%

18%

Real Madrid2

68%

ALA

MAD

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

0.7

3.2

Non-shot xG

0.4

2.7

9/23

Atlético Madrid2

57%

25%

Sevilla0

18%

ATL

SEV

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.1

0.4

Non-shot xG

1.4

1.9

9/21

Levante3

29%

26%

Real Sociedad0

45%

LEV

SOC

Adjusted goals

2.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.8

0.8

Non-shot xG

1.2

1.9

9/21

Celta Vigo1

54%

26%

Getafe1

20%

VIG

GET

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.8

0.9

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.8

9/21

Villarreal0

58%

25%

Espanyol0

17%

VLR

ESP

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.7

1.1

Non-shot xG

1.2

1.3

9/20

Sevilla1

64%

21%

Las Palmas0

15%

SEV

PAL

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.6

0.4

Non-shot xG

1.3

1.0

9/20

Real Madrid0

87%

9%

Real Betis1

4%

MAD

BET

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

3.6

1.0

Non-shot xG

4.2

0.4

9/20

Deportivo1

45%

28%

Alavés0

27%

DEP

ALA

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.9

0.3

Non-shot xG

1.5

0.5

9/20

Leganés0

59%

26%

Girona0

15%

LEG

GIR

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.5

1.2

Non-shot xG

1.3

0.9

9/20

Athletic Bilbao1

39%

30%

Atlético Madrid2

31%

BIL

ATL

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.0

Shot-based xG

1.9

2.2

Non-shot xG

1.4

1.5

9/19

Barcelona6

86%

11%

Eibar1

4%

BAR

EIB

Adjusted goals

5.9

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.7

1.4

Non-shot xG

1.7

1.5

9/19

Valencia5

56%

26%

Málaga0

19%

VAL

MGA

Adjusted goals

4.8

0.0

Shot-based xG

3.1

0.8

Non-shot xG

1.7

1.2

9/18

Espanyol2

46%

27%

Celta Vigo1

27%

ESP

VIG

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.8

1.0

Non-shot xG

0.8

1.1

9/17

Real Sociedad1

24%

20%

Real Madrid3

56%

SOC

MAD

Adjusted goals

1.1

3.2

Shot-based xG

0.6

2.5

Non-shot xG

1.1

1.5

9/17

Las Palmas1

34%

27%

Athletic Bilbao0

40%

PAL

BIL

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.9

1.1

Non-shot xG

1.0

1.3

9/17

Girona0

27%

26%

Sevilla1

47%

GIR

SEV

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.0

1.3

Non-shot xG

1.3

0.8

9/17

Alavés0

43%

29%

Villarreal3

28%

ALA

VLR

Adjusted goals

0.0

3.2

Shot-based xG

0.6

1.9

Non-shot xG

1.0

1.9

9/16

Atlético Madrid1

69%

21%

Málaga0

9%

ATL

MGA

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.6

0.3

Non-shot xG

1.5

0.6

9/16

Real Betis2

52%

26%

Deportivo1

23%

BET

DEP

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.3

0.4

Non-shot xG

1.4

0.6

9/16

Getafe1

10%

15%

Barcelona2

75%

GET

BAR

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

0.9

0.5

Non-shot xG

1.0

1.6

9/16

Levante1

35%

28%

Valencia1

37%

LEV

VAL

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.9

1.5

Non-shot xG

0.5

1.0

9/15

Eibar1

48%

29%

Leganés0

23%

EIB

LEG

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.4

0.3

Non-shot xG

0.5

0.6

9/11

Málaga1

54%

25%

Las Palmas3

21%

MGA

PAL

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.7

Shot-based xG

0.9

2.1

Non-shot xG

1.5

0.8

9/10

Villarreal3

53%

26%

Real Betis1

21%

VLR

BET

Adjusted goals

3.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.5

1.0

Non-shot xG

1.4

0.6

9/10

Celta Vigo1

45%

28%

Alavés0

28%

VIG

ALA

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.4

0.5

Non-shot xG

2.7

0.6

9/10

Athletic Bilbao2

68%

21%

Girona0

10%

BIL

GIR

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.5

0.3

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.5

9/10

Deportivo2

35%

26%

Real Sociedad4

39%

DEP

SOC

Adjusted goals

2.1

3.8

Shot-based xG

1.4

2.0

Non-shot xG

1.1

1.4

9/9

Barcelona5

86%

10%

Espanyol0

3%

BAR

ESP

Adjusted goals

4.3

0.0

Shot-based xG

6.0

0.9

Non-shot xG

4.1

0.3

9/9

Sevilla3

54%

26%

Eibar0

20%

SEV

EIB

Adjusted goals

2.5

0.0

Shot-based xG

3.1

0.8

Non-shot xG

1.4

0.5

9/9

Valencia0

35%

27%

Atlético Madrid0

38%

VAL

ATL

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.8

0.6

Non-shot xG

0.9

1.7

9/9

Real Madrid1

92%

6%

Levante1

2%

MAD

LEV

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.8

Shot-based xG

3.0

0.7

Non-shot xG

2.9

0.4

9/8

Leganés1

59%

26%

Getafe2

15%

LEG

GET

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.6

0.8

Non-shot xG

1.0

0.8

August

8/27

Real Madrid2

85%

10%

Valencia2

5%

MAD

VAL

Adjusted goals

2.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

3.9

0.8

Non-shot xG

2.7

1.0

8/27

Getafe0

31%

27%

Sevilla1

42%

GET

SEV

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.5

1.2

Non-shot xG

1.2

1.0

8/27

Espanyol0

46%

30%

Leganés1

25%

ESP

LEG

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.5

1.4

Non-shot xG

1.5

0.6

8/27

Eibar0

43%

28%

Athletic Bilbao1

29%

EIB

BIL

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.8

Shot-based xG

1.2

1.1

Non-shot xG

1.5

1.1

8/26

Las Palmas1

27%

26%

Atlético Madrid5

47%

PAL

ATL

Adjusted goals

1.1

4.7

Shot-based xG

1.5

0.4

Non-shot xG

0.8

1.0

8/26

Girona1

36%

29%

Málaga0

35%

GIR

MGA

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.6

0.4

Non-shot xG

1.5

0.5

8/26

Levante2

40%

30%

Deportivo2

31%

LEV

DEP

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.7

Shot-based xG

2.2

0.8

Non-shot xG

2.1

1.1

8/26

Alavés0

19%

21%

Barcelona2

61%

ALA

BAR

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.1

Shot-based xG

0.7

2.6

Non-shot xG

0.5

2.8

8/25

Real Betis2

48%

26%

Celta Vigo1

26%

BET

VIG

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.6

0.3

Non-shot xG

1.2

1.2

8/25

Real Sociedad3

48%

26%

Villarreal0

26%

SOC

VLR

Adjusted goals

3.2

0.0

Shot-based xG

3.2

0.2

Non-shot xG

1.8

0.3

8/21

Málaga0

47%

28%

Eibar1

26%

MGA

EIB

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.0

1.1

Non-shot xG

0.8

1.7

8/21

Levante1

28%

28%

Villarreal0

44%

LEV

VLR

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.4

0.5

Non-shot xG

1.1

0.6

8/20

Deportivo0

14%

17%

Real Madrid3

69%

DEP

MAD

Adjusted goals

0.0

3.2

Shot-based xG

1.5

2.4

Non-shot xG

1.1

2.5

8/20

Barcelona2

86%

10%

Real Betis0

4%

BAR

BET

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.4

0.2

Non-shot xG

2.6

0.3

8/20

Athletic Bilbao0

67%

21%

Getafe0

12%

BIL

GET

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.9

0.4

Non-shot xG

1.2

0.7

8/19

Sevilla1

58%

25%

Espanyol1

17%

SEV

ESP

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.8

Shot-based xG

2.2

1.3

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.6

8/19

Girona2

20%

25%

Atlético Madrid2

55%

GIR

ATL

Adjusted goals

1.7

2.1

Shot-based xG

2.1

0.8

Non-shot xG

1.2

0.9

8/19

Celta Vigo2

41%

26%

Real Sociedad3

33%

VIG

SOC

Adjusted goals

2.1

3.2

Shot-based xG

1.8

2.0

Non-shot xG

1.2

1.0

8/18

Valencia1

57%

23%

Las Palmas0

20%

VAL

PAL

Adjusted goals

0.8

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.5

0.2

Non-shot xG

1.5

0.7

8/18

Leganés1

46%

29%

Alavés0

25%

LEG

ALA

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.2

1.1

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.5

See all&blacktriangledown;

Team rating

avg. simulated season

avg. simulated season

end-of-season probabilities

team

spi

off.

def.

W

D

L

goal diff.

proj. pts.pts.

relegatedrel.

qualify for UCLqualify for UCL

win La Ligawin league

Barcelona18 pts

93.8

3.5

0.4

29.5

4.6

3.8

+76

93

<1%

>99%

69%

Real Madrid11 pts

93.3

3.5

0.5

26.3

6.7

5.0

+62

86

<1%

97%

26%

Atlético Madrid14 pts

84.2

2.2

0.4

20.8

9.6

7.6

+29

72

<1%

70%

4%

Sevilla13 pts

78.1

2.1

0.6

17.8

8.8

11.4

+11

62

<1%

33%

<1%

Valencia12 pts

75.5

2.1

0.7

16.4

10.8

10.8

+12

60

1%

27%

<1%

Real Sociedad9 pts

74.5

2.2

0.8

16.3

7.4

14.3

+3

56

2%

17%

<1%

Real Betis12 pts

70.0

1.9

0.8

15.3

8.3

14.4

+0

54

4%

13%

<1%

Athletic Bilbao8 pts

75.2

2.0

0.7

14.6

10.0

13.3

+3

54

4%

12%

<1%

Leganés10 pts

70.2

1.7

0.6

13.3

9.6

15.1

-6

49

7%

6%

<1%

Villarreal7 pts

71.1

1.9

0.8

13.5

8.8

15.7

-8

49

8%

6%

<1%

Celta Vigo7 pts

69.6

1.9

0.9

12.9

8.7

16.3

-5

48

11%

5%

<1%

Espanyol8 pts

68.1

1.7

0.8

12.3

10.4

15.3

-10

47

12%

5%

<1%

Getafe8 pts

66.2

1.7

0.8

12.1

10.2

15.7

-7

46

13%

3%

<1%

Eibar6 pts

67.6

1.8

0.8

12.3

8.2

17.4

-19

45

16%

3%

<1%

Las Palmas6 pts

62.8

1.8

1.0

11.0

7.6

19.4

-22

41

28%

<1%

<1%

Levante9 pts

59.5

1.6

1.0

9.7

11.0

17.3

-21

40

29%

<1%

<1%

Deportivo4 pts

62.2

1.8

1.0

9.9

8.6

19.6

-26

38

37%

<1%

<1%

Alavés0 pts

64.5

1.6

0.8

9.4

8.6

20.0

-21

37

41%

<1%

<1%

Girona5 pts

59.4

1.5

0.9

8.8

10.1

19.0

-25

37

42%

<1%

<1%

Málaga1 pt

63.9

1.7

0.9

9.1

8.8

20.1

-26

36

44%

<1%

<1%

Forecast from

season

The top two teams from each group qualify for the knockout phase.The third-place team from each group qualifies for the Europa League knockout phase.The third-place finisher from each group in the Champions League — eight teams total — will join the Europa League in the round of 32.The top six teams from each conference — 12 teams total — make the MLS playoffs. The top two teams from each conference receive a first-round bye.The top eight teams at the end of the regular season make the Liga MX playoffs.The top four teams at the end of the regular season make the NWSL playoffs.Three teams are promoted, and four teams are relegated. Depending on the league standings, playoffs for the final promotion and relegation spots may be necessary.Four teams — based on overall performance during the last four seasons — are relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the second-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom two teams are automatically relegated, and the third-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the next two bottom teams will enter a playoff against teams from the lower division to determine if they are relegated.