Friday, June 10, 2016

Federal Excise Tax Receipts down. FUTA too.

This is a real time
indicator of economic activity. The top figure reads 33 billion two hundred twenty three thousand dollars. This is a small amount of federal revenue but it may be the best real time indicator of the economy.

Excise Tax

May

Recipts

YTD

2016

33233

2015

34088

2014

32746

2013

31939

2012

34007

2011

28400

2010

27970

2009

25665

2008

26250

2007

27113

2006

29192

2005

28501

Is it a trend? I have no idea.

Federal Unemployment Tax receipts are down also. Also small but indicative of new hiring. FUTA is collected, a very small percent, on the first $6,000 of payroll of each employee each year. Increased collections after the first three months of the year mean new people are being hired. If an employee gets a second job elsewhere the tax is also applied to the first $6,000 of the second job. I think that 2015 was the peak for people getting second jobs. They all have second jobs now and so there is no more labor available for the second jobs.

FUTA Tax

May

Receipts

YTD

2016

6801

2015

7481

2014

7075

2013

6491

2012

5709

2011

5190

2010

4924

2009

5085

2008

5508

2007

5433

2006

5570

2005

5047

I hate to reveal how much
I go out to eat and drink. Since local professional teams have been and are winning it is a lot. I make a point of asking the table servers
and bar tenders if they have another job.
100% say yes. Yes,
Obamacare. But that is not the point I
am making. I am saying part time jobs
may be tapped out.