Victory for Akin Seen as Difficult, but Still Possible

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — In the end, Representative Todd Akin’s fate will depend not on what happens in Washington or Tampa, Fla., or on a talk radio show, but on the voters of Missouri.

A number of voters and strategists here believe it is not a foregone conclusion that Mr. Akin faces the certain defeat predicted by establishment Republican leaders calling on him to abandon his Senate bid after he made controversial comments about rape and abortion.

A pile of factors, they say, could make the situation survivable: local backlash against all the national party meddling, an intensely grass-roots fund-raising effort (Mr. Akin, a six-term congressman, has sent e-mails seeking $3 contributions from supporters in recent days), an influx of aid from some Christian groups, and a state that has in recent years grown more conservative than the national bellwether it was once seen as.

Still, Mr. Akin, a conservative who had already shocked many establishment Republicans in Missouri this month by winning a primary against two other well-known candidates for a Senate seat that Republicans have seen as a prime pickup from the Democrats, faces far stiffer odds than he did even a few days ago.

His campaign, which had raised $2.2 million as of late July, faces a serious financial crisis as promises from large donors of millions of dollars for a general election fight against Claire McCaskill, the Democratic incumbent, have been withdrawn. His status has grown ever more precarious with moderate and independent voters who may be the keys to November. And some voters and political experts, as well as longtime Republican leaders like former Senator John C. Danforth, say Mr. Akin’s political chances are fast vanishing, whether he grasps it yet or not.

Photo

Alaina Carnan worked on Tuesday in Representative Todd Akin’s campaign office in Chesterfield, Mo., which remains open amid calls for Mr. Akin to quit the race for the Senate.Credit
Bill Boyce/Associated Press

“The damage is irreparable,” said Dwight Vermette, a member of the Republican State Committee. Already Mr. Akin’s campaign apparatus is something of a homemade operation compared with Senator McCaskill’s: Republicans said he had worked largely with a campaign team made up of his wife and a son, in addition to an outside consultant from Ohio who has put together his advertising. (Mr. Akin’s campaign aides declined to respond to repeated requests for comment.)

Leaders of several conservative Christian and social-issues groups said they would step in with organizational, financial and news media help. The Family Research Council said it now hoped to sponsor independent advertising and phone banks and solicit donations for Mr. Akin. And by Wednesday evening, those tiny donations requested by Mr. Akin’s campaign several times this week were starting to add up. Mr. Akin’s Twitter account reported that he had set a goal to raise $100,000 by midnight and had raised $88,000.

Carol Wessel Boyer, a member of the Republican State Committee, said that she was among those who had sent a contribution — and that she intended to send more before the day was out.

“I’m very disappointed in the rest of the country,” she said. “They don’t live here, and they don’t really know the politics of the state of Missouri.”

For Democrats, Mr. Akin’s troubles have come as a remarkable gift. On Wednesday afternoon, Ms. McCaskill, whose campaign has reported an influx of donations in the past few days (though it would not give numbers), carried on campaign events before audiences of veterans in the St. Louis area but largely steered clear of the controversy. The situation seemed certain to draw more financial help to Ms. McCaskill’s cause, and some Democrats said they could only hope that Mr. Akin continued to ignore calls for him to quit the race.

That Mr. Akin even became the Republican nominee for one of the most coveted seats in the Senate, which could decide the balance of power, is surprising to some. Yet his ascent — and his prospects for survival — is a reflection of the state’s political shift to the right in recent years. Missouri, with its mix of rural and urban, Southern and Northern flavor, had for over more than a century picked all but two of the nation’s presidential winners.

Photo

An image from an online video of Representative Todd Akin apologizing for his remarks on rape and abortion.Credit
akin.house.gov, via Reuters

In recent years, however, the state has had population growth in some of its more rural pockets in the southwest and in St. Charles County to the east, which Mr. Akin represents — areas made up of people who tend to be more conservative and Christian. Most recently, the sluggish economy, slow job growth and teetering home values have led to the current climate, in which Mr. Romney holds deep advantages. Missouri is a state that President Obama lost by fewer than 4,000 votes in the last election but that has slipped away from the campaign’s top targets.

Missourians still view Ms. McCaskill as closely aligned with President Obama, who has lost popularity in the state. She was one of Mr. Obama’s early supporters in the last election, and she has supported some of his signature policies, including the national health care law and the economic stimulus package.

Still, political strategists say the state is far from becoming a right-wing bastion like some of its neighbors, in part because it has two industrialized, urban centers that tend to be liberal. The state, which naturally sits to the right of center politically, maintains strong Democratic influence — the governor, for one, and Ms. McCaskill.

This, some analysts see, is at the heart of Mr. Akin’s challenge.

“He is very, very right wing on everything from fiscal policy to social policy,” said Kenneth F. Warren, a political science professor at St. Louis University, “and I don’t think Missourians are that conservative.”

Much of Mr. Akin’s political strength throughout his career was drawn from his ability to connect with the rural, Christian voters who make up much of his district and who share his values. Missouri Republicans have long raised concern that he would have a more difficult time speaking to a broader audience across the state, especially the independent voters who could decide the election.

“It does hurt him with key voting blocs like single women, young people and suburban moderates,” said Dave Robertson, a political science professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. “To get to 50 percent he’s going to need not only his base, but a good percentage of those people. He has made it much more difficult to put that coalition together on Election Day.”

Photo

Senator Claire McCaskill, who campaigned on Wednesday at a V.F.W. post in St. Louis, has seen an increase in donations in recent days, her aides say.Credit
Dan Gill for The New York Times

Around the state by Wednesday, Mr. Akin’s circumstances seemed to be generating dueling sentiments — those who thought it was time to forgive and those who wished Mr. Akin would go away already.

Donna Oakley, the Republican chairwoman for Putnam County and president of a local chapter of the National Republican Women’s Group, said she would go right on supporting Mr. Akin, as would many others. Ms. McCaskill, she said, had irked many more people than Mr. Akin had. “The media is going to run us into the ground about this,” she said of Mr. Akin’s situation.

In Butler County, though, Republicans were asking Mr. Akin not to appear at a Reagan Days event set for Sept. 8 in Poplar Bluff.

“He should step aside,” Eddy Justice, the chairman of the Republican County Committee, said, “because the cause that we are championing is bigger than one person.”

Whatever happens, “his presence on the ballot assures this major diversion for the next two and a half months,” said former Senator Danforth, who said the entire conversation had been turned away from what Missouri residents are most worried about, the debt and the economy.

“This is very toxic,” he said.

Steven Yaccino contributed reporting from Chicago, Erik Eckholm from New York, and Rebecca Berg from Washington.

A version of this article appears in print on August 23, 2012, on page A12 of the New York edition with the headline: Victory for Akin Seen as Difficult, But Still Possible. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe