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Sunday, February 24, 2008

Cleveland Rolls the Dice

Generally, teams that make it to the NBA Finals do not make wholesale changes in the middle of the following season. Cleveland General Manager Danny Ferry is certainly taking a risk by trading two starters and six players overall from a roster that came within four wins of capturing an NBA title last June.

Before this season started, some so-called experts predicted that the Cavaliers might not even make the playoffs and said that Cleveland's run to the 2007 NBA Finals was a fluke. I maintained that the formula of good defense and rebounding combined with the brilliance of LeBron James would once again put the Cavaliers in contention for the Eastern Conference crown. Of course, I had no way of knowing that Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic would both miss the start of the season due to contract holdouts or that James, Varejao, Pavlovic and other key rotation players would miss many games due to injuries. Still, despite those challenges the Cavs remain squarely in the hunt for home court advantage in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Will Ferry's bold move prove to be the final step in the process of building a championship team or will the Cavaliers actually be a worse team once the dust settles? I discuss that question in my newest article for CavsNews.com (6/17/15 edit: the link to CavsNews.com no longer works, so I have posted the original article below):

At literally
the last minute before the trade deadline, Cleveland General Manager Danny
Ferry decided to get rid of half of his active roster, shipping out Larry Hughes,
Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Ira Newble, Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons in
a three way trade with Chicago and Seattle that brought Ben Wallace, Joe Smith,
Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West to Cleveland. Normally, a team that wins a
conference championship does not make such a huge trade midway through the next
season; teams need a certain amount of time to develop enough continuity to
perform well in the playoffs. However, the majority of the contending teams
have made significant offseason and/or in season moves, so most of them will be
developing their team chemistry and continuity on the fly.

The Cavaliers
are coming off of the best postseason performance in franchise history and are
right in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race this season despite
battling injuries and having to overcome lengthy holdouts by Anderson Varejao
and Sasha Pavlovic. One might think that there would be a positive vibe around
the Cavaliers but that has not been the case for most of the season. LeBron
James openly lobbied for the team to acquire Jason Kidd, vowing that this move
would be all it would take to bring a championship to Cleveland. Cavalier fans roundly booed Larry
Hughes every time he shot the ball and urged the team to trade him,
disregarding the fact that the team’s record has consistently been much better
with him in the lineup than it is when he is sidelined.

Ferry offered
a very simple and direct explanation for his actions: “I didn't think we were
good enough to win the championship. I thought we had a very good team. But I
do believe if we have a chance to make ourselves better we should try. Was it a
risk in doing so? Yes, it was a risk. But we're going to have to make some
decisions that have some risk in them if we want to continue to build and
grow."

There is an
old saying to the effect that if a coach listens to what the fans in the stands
are shouting he will soon be sitting next to them. The same reasoning can be
applied to general managers. Another saying is "Be careful what you wish
for--you might get it." Fans have been pleading with Ferry to get rid of
Hughes and now they have gotten their wish. What puzzles me most about this
trade is that, in the best case scenario, I think that it only makes Cleveland
a little better—and it is certainly possible that it will make Cleveland worse.

Let’s look at
the best case scenario first: Wallace rebounds and defends like he did two
years ago (or even during last year’s playoffs), Smith reliably drains midrange
jumpers, Szczerbiak spreads the floor on offense by consistently making three
pointers and West solidifies the point guard position. If all of those things
happen then the Cavs will be a little better than they were previously—but not
much better. Don’t forget that Gooden and Hughes started for a team that won 50
games last year, defeated the vaunted Detroit Pistons four straight times in
the Eastern Conference Finals and, when at full strength, was on pace to win at
least 50 games this year. The newly minted Cavs are certainly a 50 win caliber
team but are they a 60 win caliber team? If not, then at best they are only
marginally better than they were before Ferry pulled the trigger on this deal.

The worst
case scenario mainly involves questions about team chemistry, effort and
perimeter defense. Regardless of what one may think of each of the individual
players who the Cavs dealt away, collectively they played well enough to help
the team make it all the way to the NBA Finals. There are serious questions
about how much effort Wallace has put forth since he received his big contract
and there are also some concerns about his impact on team chemistry. While the
Pistons have clearly missed Wallace’s shotblocking and intensity since letting
him go to Chicago,
Wallace was not willing or able to bring a high level of energy to the Bulls on
a nightly basis. Hughes was able to defend three positions, while Szczerbiak
will be a defensive liability regardless of whether he matches up with small
forwards or shooting guards (there is of course no way that he can defend any
point guards). The Zydrunas Ilgauskas-Drew Gooden-Anderson Varejao frontcourt
rotation—with cameo appearances by Donyell Marshall—had a nice blend of size,
shooting skills, rebounding and the ability to play screen/roll with James.
Wallace and Smith are talented individuals but it is not clear that their skill
sets will blend smoothly with how the Cavaliers play. For instance, Wallace and
Varejao probably cannot play together because then the frontcourt will not have
enough scoring punch.

Cleveland’s recipe for success under Coach Mike
Brown is defense, rebounding and the brilliance of LeBron James. The numbers
show that Cleveland’s
defense has slipped a bit this year, particularly in field goal percentage
allowed and point differential, but one could argue that the absence of Varejao
for a major portion of the season had a lot to do with that. If Wallace does
not give a good effort on a nightly basis then the Cavs could very well be
worse defensively now than they were before the trade; with the previous group,
there was at least the hope—based on last year’s performance—that once the team
got healthy they would again play good defense.

James tried his best to sound
enthusiastic about Ferry’s bold move and even actually said, “I’m excited,” but
when he elaborated he hardly sounded excited: “This isn't the type of deal I
expected. You guys heard what I wanted but I am grateful for the situation. We
got some good caliber guys that are coming in. It was very surprising, you come
into the locker room today and it is very different. We've added some depth to
our front line, which we needed, and we added some more shooting, which we
needed. We don't have much time, but what is good about the guys that came in
is that they have playoff experience."

Contrast that with what James
said in the wake of his All-Star MVP performance on Sunday: “We (the Cavaliers)
know we're still not going to get the respect we should get. That's never been
a problem for us. We don't care. We just go out and play. We're always going to
be (perceived as) the third or fourth or fifth best team in the Eastern
Conference. You know, we still go out there and win ballgames and we know when
the postseason happens, you know, you've got to come get it from us, because
we're very good.” As much as James hoped to be able to play alongside Kidd, he
also knew that he could at least get to the Finals with the previous group.

The bottom line is that if this Cleveland
Cavaliers team stays healthy there is no reason that they cannot return to the
NBA Finals. It would not be wise to tinker with the roster unless it is clear
that the move markedly improves the team’s chances to make it to the Finals
and/or beat the Western Conference representative. Adding players for the sake
of having name brand talent does not automatically produce success—just ask the
New York Knicks or the turn of the century Portland Trailblazers.

Cleveland
has acquired "name brand talent"--two former All-Stars (Wallace and
Szczerbiak) and a former number one overall draft pick (Smith)--but only in the
playoffs will we find out if the roster has truly been upgraded.

1 Comments:

I've agreed with you all year about the Cavs. As a Cavs fan it is hard to believe the lack of respect this team gets in the national media. Its like they missed games 3-6 of the Eastern Conference finals last year.

That said, I hope this trade gives the Cavs a little more consistency. It will definitely be interesting to see how Mike Brown adjusts his lineup to deal with the influx of new players with a variety of skill sets. I look forward to your continued analysis.

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