Keith's Macro Notebook 9/10: Vix | Volume | UST 10YR

Down Day, Up Volume

Client Talking Points

VIX

Immediate-term TRADE oversold signals happen, a lot, and they usually happen in the SPX and RUT when we get an immediate-term TRADE overbought signal in the VIX (check, check). Support for the SPX is 1982 and resistance for the VIX is 13.83.

VOLUME

Consistent within the pattern of behavior we’ve seen since July 7th, U.S. stock market DOWN days have more volume than the UP days. Yesterday’s Total U.S. Equity Market Volume (including dark pool) was +9% and +3% vs its 1 and 3 month averages #asymmetry.

UST 10YR

The UST 10YR at 2.51% frustrated some yesterday, but understand the new narrative that the Fed is going to “change its forward guidance” – some read that as hawkish, while we read that as dovish, moving to “data dependent” vs “calendar expectations” means the Fed can and will get more dovish as the U.S. economic data slows. We see no support for the UST 10YR to 2.31.

Asset Allocation

CASH

43%

US EQUITIES

3%

INTL EQUITIES

18%

COMMODITIES

2%

FIXED INCOME

30%

INTL CURRENCIES

4%

Top Long Ideas

Company

Ticker

Sector

Duration

EDV

The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) is an extended duration ETF (20-30yr). Now that we have our first set of late-cycle economic indicators slowing in rate of change terms (ADP numbers and the NFP number), it's time to really think through the upcoming moves of this bond market. We are doubling down on our biggest macro call of 2014 - that U.S. growth would slow and bond yields fall in kind.

TLT

Fixed income continues to be our favorite asset class, so it should come as no surprise to see us rotate into the Shares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) on the long side. In conjunction with our #Q3Slowing macro theme, we think the slope of domestic economic growth is poised to roll over here in the third quarter. In the context of what may be flat-to-decelerating reported inflation, we think the performance divergence between Treasuries, stocks and commodities may actually be set to widen over the next two to three months. This view remains counter to consensus expectations, which is additive to our already-high conviction level in this position. Fade consensus on bonds – especially as growth slows. As it’s done for multiple generations, the 10Y Treasury Yield continues to track the slope of domestic economic growth like a glove.

RH

Restoration Hardware remains our Retail Team’s highest-conviction long idea. We think that most parts of the thesis are at least acknowledged by the market (category growth, real estate expansion), but people are absolutely missing how all the pieces are coming together to drive such outsized earnings growth over an extremely long duration. The punchline of our real estate analysis is that a) RH stores could get far bigger than even the RH bulls seem to think, b) Aside from reconfiguring 66 existing markets, there’s another 19 markets we identified where the spending rate on home furnishings by people making over $100k in income suggests that RH should expand to these markets with Design Galleries, and c) the availability and economics on large properties for all these markets are far better than people think. The consensus is looking for long-term earnings growth of 28% -- we’re looking for 45%.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

QUOTE OF THE DAY

If you are not willing to risk the usual you will have to settle for the ordinary.

-Jim Rohn

STAT OF THE DAY

6.9 millimeters, the width of the iPhone 6 that Apple unveiled yesterday.

09/10/14 08:33 AM EDT

CHART OF THE DAY: Scottish Independence Polls and Effect on British Pound $FXB

In the Chart of the Day, we show the impact that the series of YouGov.com polls have had on the British Pound. While certainly there are other factors at play, the increasingly pro-Independence polls have been a defined catalyst for aggressive selling of British Pounds.

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Hell on Wheels

“Mr. Bohannon, Do you want to build this railroad?”

-Senator Grant in the AMC T.V. show, “Hell on Wheels”

Similar to our office, I’m sure most of you don’t have much time to watch T.V., but every once in a while a great show comes around that is really hard to turn off. A popular one at Hedgeye as of late is AMC’s, “Hell on Wheels.”

The show is about the epic struggle to build a trans-continental railroad. Setting aside the obvious struggles of weather, dealing with Native tribes (who felt their treaties were being violated), and limited technology, the building of the transcontinental railroad also occurred at a time when the nation was healing itself from the Civil War. As a result many former Union and Confederate soldiers worked side-by-side on the railroad.

As Wikipedia describes it:

“The First Transcontinental Railroad (known originally as the "Pacific Railroad" and later as the "Overland Route") was a 1,907-mile (3,069 km) contiguous railroad line constructed between 1863 and 1869 across the western United States to connect the Pacific coast at San Francisco Bay with the existing Eastern U.S. rail network at Council Bluffs, Iowa, on the Missouri River.”

The epic struggle to connect the two sides of the continent took more than six years, but once it was completed dramatically changed the face of commerce in the United States.

Who knows, perhaps the iWatch will do the same?

Back to the Global Macro Grind...

In the global macro world, the epic struggle du jour seems to be related to Scottish independence. Simply, will the Scots decide to leave the United Kingdom, or not?

A few weeks ago, no one was even considering this as a potential global macro issue, but after a recent YouGov.Com poll that showed a slight majority of Scots voting Yes (51%) to independence versus No (49%), the British pound was sold dramatically and Scottish independence became a hot topic with the manic media.

So, will the Scots vote for independence on September 18th? If we rely strictly on the YouGov.com poll, it would seem there is a real chance of this occurring. Practically speaking, though, as we have written often in the past it is very unwise to rely strictly on one poll. In fact, there are a couple of key quantitative points that speak in contrast to the YouGov.com poll:

First, the YouGov poll that showed a 2% edge for the Yes side was literally the second poll ever (of those polls approved by the British Polling Council) to show the Yes side ahead. The other Yes poll was taken by the Scottish National Party back in mid-2013;

Second, the most recent poll aggregates (though some admittedly occurred before the most recent debate in which pro-independence leader Alex Salmond was widely judged to have won) still show a lead for the No vote outside the margin of error. Specifically, a poll aggregate issued by Strathclyde University on September 1st showed the No side ahead by 10 points and a poll aggregate from The Guardian on September 3rd showed a similar 10 point lead.

Finally, the online betting website, Bet Fair, shows the market for Scottish Independence at more than 2:1 for No independence. (Incidentally, there have been almost $5 million pounds wagered on Bet Fair for this topic.)

In the Chart of the Day below, we show the impact that the series of YouGov.com polls have had on the British Pound. While certainly there are other factors at play, the increasingly pro-Independence polls have been a defined catalyst for aggressive selling of British Pounds.

Setting aside the polls and betting markets, the most notable reasons for Scotland to stay a part of Great Britain are related to the Scottish economy itself. Hedgeye’s European Analyst Matt Hedrick highlighted a number of major risks to the Scottish economy should the Scots pursue independence, including:

Currency – UK politicians have stated that Scotland could not use Sterling. The country would have to issue its own currency

Central Bank – until the formation of a central bank there is no backstop for sovereign debt

Massive Capital Flight –investors could pull money out of Scottish banks en masse that would destabilize the financial system

EU Membership – it’s unclear if an independent Scotland would be granted EU membership, which could have huge trade implications

Regulation – uncertainty if banks would remain regulated under the UK regulatory authority? Tax and trade regulations also uncertain

Economic Drag – prominent financial firms likely to move to London

Budget – the Institute for Fiscal Studies pointsout that Scotland's Deficit could be 4.6% if independent. Low credit quality could negatively impact debt raises, and push the country's debt and deficit levels higher, a vicious cycle.

It is certainly possible, even if unlikely, that the most recent YouGov.com poll is the harbinger of Scottish Independence. But for this to be accurate it would fly in the face of all other polls, the betting markets, and really any semblance of rational analysis by the Scots related to their own economy. So our view continues to be that the No vote will prevail and the British Pound will rally accordingly.

That said, given the weak nature of the Scottish economy and the fact that 2 out of every 3 Scots are on some form of social welfare, over the long run a Great Britain without Scotland might actually be a stronger economy and certainly more healthy from a fiscal perspective. So on some level, perhaps the British Pound is in a win-win situation given its recent sell off. A No vote leads to a relief rally and a Yes votes leads currency traders to asses s United Kingdom’s much improved fiscal health without Scotland, which leads to a long term tail wind for the Pound.

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

UST 10yr Yield 2.31-2.52%

SPX 1

RUT 1151-1171

Shanghai Comp 2

VIX 11.34-13.83

Brent 98.74-102.99

Keep your head up and stick on the ice,

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

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09/10/14 08:19 AM EDT

Mortgage Apps - From August Anemia to September Slowdown

Takeaway:Plumbing new lows in purchase demand, at least according to the Mortgage Bankers Association Survey.

Our Hedgeye Housing Compendium table (below) aspires to present the state of the housing market in a visually-friendly format that takes about 30 seconds to consume

*Note - to maintain cross-metric comparability, the purchase applications index shown in the table below represents the monthly average as opposed to the most recent weekly data point

Today's Focus: MBA Mortgage Applications

The Mortgage Bankers Association today released its weekly mortgage applications survey data for the week ended September 5th.

The Composite Index hit a new 10Y low in the holiday week, declining -7.2% sequentially with Refinance and Purchase demand sliding -10.6% and -2.6% WoW, respectively. As this morning's data is reflecting a holiday week, we'll hold our breath for next week's print for confirmation, but, regardless, the intermediate-term trend remains down.

From August Anemia to September Slowdown: The purchase Index fell for the 5th time in 6 weeks, declining -2.6% WoW to 161.5 on the Index. This marks the 9th consecutive week at the 160-level and the softest demand streak since April of 1995 – note that outside of 1 week during the peak weather distortion in February (155 on 2/21/14), the Purchase index hasn’t fallen below the 160-level since 3Q11. Purchase demand remains down -12% YoY and is currently tracking -6.4% QoQ.

Refi & Rates: Refinance activity fell -10.6% WoW with the holiday and the sequential rise in rates both playing negatively. Rates on the 30Y FRM contract increased for the 1st time in a month, rising +2bps sequentially to 4.27%. Refi activity remains down -17.2% YoY but the rate of change continues to improve as we move through the easiest 2013 comps.

As we’ve been apt to highlight of late, while the MBA survey states that it covers 75% of all US retail residential mortgage applications, it does not count applications submitted through the broker/correspondent/wholesale channels. Given the regulation catalyzed share-shift in the mortgage origination channel, it’s likely the MBA survey is modestly understating current demand.

About MBA Mortgage Applications:

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association’s mortgage applications index covers more than 75% of mortgage applications originated through retail and consumer direct channels. It does not include loans delivered through wholesale broker and correspondent channels. The MBA mortgage purchase applications index is considered a leading indicator of single-family home sales and construction. Moreover, it is the only housing index that is released on a weekly basis.

Frequency:

The MBA Purchase Apps index is released every Wednesday morning at 7 am EST.

Joshua Steiner, CFA

Christian B. Drake

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09/10/14 08:01 AM EDT

Bloody Highs

This note was originally published
at 8am on August 27, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“The perpetuation of debt has drenched the earth with blood.”

-Thomas Jefferson

No volume, no worries. We’re at the all-time bloody SPY highs, baby. Didn’t you hear? This time is different. Ask the guys who said bond yields would rise as US growth accelerated (our call in 2013) throughout 2014, who are now saying that US growth will rip, as bond yields fall?

Since I started playing this game in the late 1990s, most of the time was supposed to be “different” (newsflash: it wasn’t). While the stock, bond, and commodity market bubbles have all had different narratives, one thing is not different – prices go up, then down, a lot.

Another thing that has not changed, for literally 200 years, is the bull/bear debate on US government debt, central planning, and easy money. It’s ole school Jefferson vs. Hamilton. And, until the next stock market bubble pops, to some Hamilton will appear to be right.

Back to the Global Macro Grind …

The stock market is not the economy. Drawing down US National Savings in order to A) keep up with the Policy To Inflate USA’s cost of living to all-time highs and B) perpetuate a levered slow-to-no-growth real economy is not the path towards long-term prosperity.

But, Keith, the stock market is up. Indeed. So is Argentina’s.

Argentina is basically in default, but its stock market was up another +1.5% yesterday to +78.4% YTD. If only CNBC could do an inversion from New Jersey to Buenos Aires, they could bounce their ratings off all-time lows trumpeting Argentina’s big government success.

Alexander Hamilton would have been the darling of big debtor, money printing, and taxing TV too. He did, after all, promote a US National Debt as a “public blessing.” Whereas the more libertarian minded Thomas Jefferson said:

“I consider the fortunes of our republic as depending on the extinguishment of the public debt.”

-Hamilton’s Curse (pg 38)

So which one is it that drives your family or country’s fortunes – debt or savings?

As you can see in the Chart of The Day (pg 30 in our current Macro Themes slide deck – if you’d like a copy, ping sales@Hedgeye.com), the US Personal Savings Rate (% of Disposable Income) has been falling for the past 3 years (as the stock market makes new highs).

How do you solve for sustainable Investment Growth in America if you can’t solve for S (Savings) = I (Investment)?

I’m pretty sure that the answer to that is you get everyone to borrow (lever up) to either buy growth or, in Kinder Morgan’s (KMI) case, to pay the dividend. Oh, those juicy dividends. Gotta have them - especially if the risk free rate of return on American Savings is centrally planned at 0%.

Who is dumb enough to put money into a savings account that earns 0%? Throughout this summer I have taken my Cash position in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model from 10% to 56%. “So”, evidently me. Why?

Raising cash in both 2000 and 2007 worked for me (they were cycle calls)

I’m not a big fan of drawing down my net worth 30-60% every 7 years and telling my family everyone else missed it too

After an economic cycle plays out (we’re going on 63 months into a US economic expansion), if I’ve raised cash at a measured pace, I’ll have it to re-invest it in my business when the proverbial poop hits the fan (see 2008-2009 Hedgeye Risk Management ROIC for details).

But that’s just me. I like to save (raise cash) so that I can invest counter-cyclically.

What does being counter-cyclical mean? It means the opposite of what the Old Wall pressures companies and investors to do, which is chase returns and invest in inventories, capex, etc. at the end (instead of the beginning) of a cycle. In public co. CYA speak, most CFO’s are pro-cyclical.

Which brings up the most important part of my decision making process – the bloody cycle!

You either agree with me or not here, but at SPX 2,000, you do have to make a decision. You either invest up here, or you book gains and raise cash for a rainy day. Which means you have to have a view on where we are in the economic cycle:

If you think it’s different this time, you buy early cycle stocks (Russell 2000 is only +0.8% YTD, gotta be “cheap”)

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