No easy answers to NY Mets' problems as troubling season nears its end

John Munson/The Star-LedgerThis was a rare sight at Citi Field this season -- Carlos Beltran gets a high five from hitting coach Howard Johnson after hitting a home run in his home ballpark.ANALYSIS

This is not the way Omar Minaya drew things up.

Almost six months ago, the Mets left spring training with a $140 million roster and high expectations, the chic pick by some to win the World Series. Now, they’re in the midst of a meaningless series against the Nationals, one lowly team against another, with what is largely a minor-league roster.

“It’s hard to watch sometimes,” Minaya said. “You think about what could have been with this team.”

And, more importantly, what will be.

In two weeks, the Mets’ train wreck of a season will mercifully come to an end, and the task of remaking the team for 2010 will begin. With ownership having assured Minaya that he will be back next year, the question isn’t so much who will make the Mets a contender again as it is how to make that happen.

There is no easy answer. The Mets lack a legitimate No. 2 starting pitcher, they are in desperate need of a power hitter and they have holes to fill at first base, left field, catcher and in the bullpen.

They are unlikely to get much, if any, help from their farm system. And it’s unclear how much money they’ll be able to spend in the wake of last year’s Bernie Madoff scandal and the economic downturn.

“It’s going to be challenging,” Minaya said. “The past couple years we’ve been coming off teams that won a lot of games, that went to the last game of the season. This year is coming off a year that, because of the injuries, we don’t know what a lot of these guys are going to be next year. So I think it’s a little bit more complex than it has been in past years.”

POWER OUTAGE

The Mets didn’t build this year’s team to hit for power. They were never going to be a prolific home run hitting team, not in the cavernous new Citi Field. But no one could have imagined what a rare event a Mets home run would be in 2009.

Entering the weekend, the Mets had hit 87 home runs, by far the lowest total in the majors. They are on pace to finish with less than 100 home runs for the first time since 1992, and would become only the second major-league team since 1994 to do so, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

As with everything else, injuries have played a significant role, particularly the extended absences of Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran. The ballpark has also hurt, and not just because would-be home run balls die at the warning track.

Hitting coach Howard Johnson said the Mets had to emphasize hitting to the opposite field, putting the ball in play and scoring with speed while sacrificing some power. That partly explains why David Wright has just 10 home runs, down from 33 last year.

“It really made sense for guys to hit the ball the other way,” Johnson said. “In that respect, we did what we wanted to do this year. But I think going forward next year, we’re going to adjust our approach somewhat. That’s something we have to discuss.”

The Mets have said they have no plans to change the dimensions of Citi Field next season, so they’ll just have to hit the ball farther. Or, rather, bring in someone who can.

Minaya said the Mets’ top offseason priority will be to add more power to the lineup.

“Right now it’s got to be the offense,” he said. “I always say pitching, but I like some of our young pitchers. ... I just think we have to make sure that we get the offensive production. I don’t like to be the last in home runs.”

Outfielders Matt Holliday of the Cardinals and Jason Bay of the Red Sox will be the best options on the free-agent market, and both would fit easily into the Mets’ left field vacancy.

But it is questionable whether the Mets could afford either — and even if they could, whether they’d then have enough money left to address their other needs.

The lack of power may be a pressing issue, but it is hardly the only one.

THE ROTATION

The biggest question in an otherwise uneventful spring training was who would be the No. 5 starter. But it wasn’t the back of the rotation that has most disappointed the Mets. It’s the middle.

They wanted to sign an established front-line starter to follow Johan Santana, but the Braves outbid them for Derek Lowe last winter, and what the Mets ended up with instead wasn’t pretty.

Oliver Perez looks like a $36 million bust after an injury-shortened season in which he went 3-4 with a 6.82 ERA. And Mike Pelfrey, with a 10-10 record and a 5.10 ERA, has taken a step backward in his second full major-league season.

With John Maine and Santana also hit by injuries, it’s been an awful year for Mets starting pitchers.

The Mets are on pace to finish with their highest starting pitching ERA (4.91) since 1962, the franchise’s inaugural season, according to Elias.

Even if the Mets had remained healthy, manager Jerry Manuel said the lack of a dependable starter behind Santana would have been hard to overcome.

“A lot of things would have had to go right offensively and defensively in order for us to be able to buy time to get back to Santana in the rotation,” Manuel said. “We would have had to hit timely and the bullpen would have had to have been as strong as it was coming out of spring training.”

Given Pelfrey’s struggles, it would seem unrealistic to expect him to be a No. 2-caliber starter in 2010. But Minaya left open the possibility that Pelfrey could be back in the same role next year.

“I’m comfortable with Mike Pelfrey,” the GM said.

As a No. 2 starter?

“Yeah,” Minaya said. “When I say yeah, I mean, what is a No. 2? I think Mike Pelfrey is still developing and he’s going to get better. What does that mean? I don’t know. I know one thing: I know a No. 1, and we have a No. 1. Now, where (No.) 2, 3 and 4 go, they’re very close in baseball right now.”

Still, Minaya said he would like to acquire a “proven, established guy” this winter. Angels right-hander John Lackey will be the top available free-agent pitcher, but again, the question is how much money the Mets will be willing and able to spend.

MONEY

The Mets went into the last two offseasons coming off September collapses. And each time, Minaya was able to reinvigorate a frustrated fan base with a splashy acquisition.

The Mets needed an ace after 2007. They traded for the best pitcher on the market, Santana, and signed him to a six-year, $137.5 million extension. They needed a closer after 2008. They got the best one on the free-agent market, signing Francisco Rodriguez to a three-year, $37 million deal.

This winter figures to be different. That is partly because of a weak free-agent class, but also because the Mets have more needs to address and there is a considerable question about how much additional salary they’ll be able to take on.

With money coming off the books, minus raises the Mets owe players under contract beyond this season, they will have roughly $30 million to spend — if the payroll remains at the same level.

“I don’t know what it’s going to be, but payroll has never been an issue with us,” Minaya said. “I don’t expect it to go down. But I don’t know that yet. I don’t know where it’s going to be.”

The uncertainty stems from the money owner Fred Wilpon lost in the Madoff scheme. Wilpon disputed the $700 million figure cited in GQ magazine earlier this year, without specifying what the actual amount was, and the Mets have said the team will not be affected.

But this will be the Mets’ first full post-Madoff offseason and — fairly or not — every decision involving money will be interpreted as a sign of the club’s financial wherewithal.

“I expect that we’re still going to be in on the big guys,” Minaya said. “The question is, are the big guys that are out there a fit to what we want to do?”

THE CORE

Given the disappointments of the last three seasons, some fans have called for the Mets to blow up the roster and start over. Or, more specifically, blow up The Core.

They have been the four constants in the Mets’ Opening Day lineup from 2006 to 2009:

Wright, Beltran, Delgado and Jose Reyes.

As the face of the organization, Wright isn’t going anywhere. And Delgado is a free agent, so letting him go won’t solve any of the team’s problems. The Mets might even be interested in re-signing Delgado if they can do it cheaply.

Beltran has a full no-trade clause and $37 million left on his contract, which runs through 2011, not to mention the fact that he is coming off a knee injury.

And while Reyes would be easier to trade, the Mets are not eager to unload him. Team officials still believe that if Reyes is healthy, his speed would make him perfectly suited for Citi Field.

Minaya said he doesn’t think the Mets need a major overhaul. But he wouldn’t rule out trading one of their core players.

“I think you have to consider everything,” Minaya said. “When you have a year like we’re having now, I don’t think you can be conservative and say, ‘We’re going to go with the same guys.’ I think you have to open your mind up and put everything on the table.”