The Executive Summary: Labor Day marks unofficial beginning of 2014 election season

This edition of The Executive Summary crosses the invisible post-Labor Day line that unofficially kicks off the 2014 election season and looks at how state executive races are shaping up across the country. Additionally we update the ongoing gifts saga of Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell (R), give you the rundown on the new Iowa Director of Education and why the Pennsylvania Secretary of Education was asked to resign, detail the 2013 races in their final months, and toss a trivia question your way about the Lone Star State.

Chafee won’t seek re-election

Rhode Island GovernorLincoln Chafee (D) announced yesterday afternoon that he would not be running for a second term in order to focus on governing. "I want to devote all my time, all my energy, to the task at hand," he stated.[1] Until officially switching his party affiliation on May 30, 2013, Chafee was the country's only sitting Independent governor. He was expected to run for re-election as a Democrat. Chafee served in the U.S. Senate from 1999-2007 as a Republican.[2]

Joseph Fleming, a veteran Rhode Island pollster, said there was no way Chafee could have won re-election. "All the poll numbers over the last three years showed him with very low job approval ratings. I didn't see any scenario that had him winning as an independent or Democratic candidate. The numbers just weren't there for the governor," he stated.[3] With Chafee out of the picture, the likely Democratic primary will be a two-way battle between current State TreasurerGina Raimondo and Providence Mayor Angel Taveras.

Beginning of unofficial election season

While the long Labor Day weekend is seen as the unofficial end of summer, it is also viewed in many states as the unofficial beginning of election season, with incumbents and challengers jumping into parades to increase their visibility. In Illinois, it marked the last day before candidates could begin gathering signatures to get on the March 18, 2014 primary ballot.[4] Meanwhile, Michigan Democrats, eager in their quest to unseat Republican incumbents, took part in Laborpalooza, advertised as promising to be “the most exciting Democratic Party party of the year.”[5]

With the 2014 general election still over a year away, some races already have a glut of challengers eager for their chance, while others have no declared candidates. Incumbents, likewise, have run the gamut between seeming to run for re-election as soon as they assumed office, to still wavering. Here at Ballotpedia, we are currently tracking 356 potential and declared 2014 state executive candidates. The race with perhaps the most candidates at this point is in Pennsylvania, where no less than 12 candidates are considering hopping into the Democratic primary for governor, six of which have officially declared. Polls have shown incumbent Tom Corbett (R) facing an upward climb to re-election.
Gubernatorial races in New Hampshire and Vermont are very different from the rest of the country and they are the only two states who elect a governor every two years. While neither are bound by term limits, freshman governors in these states have a much shorter time frame to prove to voters what they are capable of and why they should be returned to office. This is the case of New Hampshire’s Maggie Hassan, who was first elected just ten months ago. While Hassan has received generally favorable ratings thus far, two Republican state senators are considering a challenge.[6] Vermont’s Peter Shumlin (D) was first elected in 2010, re-elected in 2012 and is assumed to be running in 2014. He has yet to have any major party challengers.[7] All in all, the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics estimates that a record-breaking 30 governors will seek re-election in 2014. The current record of 26 was set in 1960.[8]

Although gubernatorial races more often grab the headlines, there is a slew of down ballot races that promise to be interesting. One of which is for Barry Smitherman’s (R) seat on the Texas Railroad Commission, the body responsible for regulation of oil, gas and other industries in the state. With Smitherman running for Attorney General the seat will be open. So far five candidates, all Republicans, have declared in the race. Appointed in 2011, Smitherman won the right in 2012 to serve the rest of the term, raising a whopping $4,085,092 in the process. Of the 93 state executive office winners in 2012, only six candidates raised more, including four governors and two attorneys general. As Democrats seek a toehold in the bright red state, many of the offices have the potential to simply be an incumbent shuffle. Alongside Smitherman’s bid for higher office, current Attorney General Greg Abbott is running for governor, while Land CommissionerJerry Patterson and Agriculture CommissionerTodd Staples are seeking the lieutenant governor’s position.

One reason Texas has seen so much action this early is that their primary, the first of the season, is scheduled for March 4, 2014, just six months away. Illinois follows close behind on March 18. What will happen between now and then is anybody’s guess, but one thing is for sure - there are plenty of reasons to stay tuned.

Gov. McDonnell’s gifts keep on coming

Late last month, more gifts from Star Scientific CEO Jonnie Williams to McDonnell became public, including a fashion tour of New York Williams won for the governor's wife at a charity auction, paying to fly the governor and his wife to Cape Cod over Labor Day weekend in 2012, and allowing McDonnell, his sons and staff to play golf and purchase gear at exclusive Richmond area country clubs. Those close to the investigation said McDonnell was aware of these, even though the governor's lawyers have argued he should not be charged with any crimes partially because he was unaware of these gifts.[9]

Federal prosecutors, who previously met with McDonnell and his wife, are seeking another meeting with their lawyers no later than the week of September 15. At this meeting the U.S. Attorney’s office is expected to lay out key elements of the case. The investigation has hit delays, and prosecutors do not want to give the appearance that their work could influence the results of this year’s gubernatorial contest to replace McDonnell. When charges, if any, will be filed is unclear.[10][11]

Illinois joint ticket election procedure to debut in 2014

The 2014 electoral cycle will mark the first time in Illinois history that candidates for the offices of governor and lieutenant governor will run on a single ticket in the primary election phase. Spurred by the 2010 fiasco where the independently elected Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial nominee Scott Lee Cohen had to drop out of the race after being arrested on charges of steroid use and domestic battery, the law was promptly changed with the notion that the introduction of a dependent selection process will create a stronger perception, right off the bat, of the office's partnership with that of the governor. The gubernatorial candidates began hand picking their running mates starting this week, though a few candidates have stated plans to wait until closer to the December petition filing deadline to make their selection - the hope is that their campaigns will be induced to "better define their priorities for voters and cover more ground as election season gets underway."[12]

On September 3, individuals aiming to qualify for a slot on the March 2014 primary ballot could officially begin gathering signatures.

Of the five candidates who have already declared their intention to oust current embattled incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn next year, most have expressed optimistic views on the new joint ticket process. Republican state Sen. Bill Brady, remarked that, “Two voices are stronger than one.” Illinois TreasurerDan Rutherford, who is leaving his current post as state treasurer behind to seek Illinois' chief executive seat, said he has already decided on a running mate and will go public with the choice in the coming weeks. "My No. 1 priority was would this individual both in reality and perception-wise (among voters) be able to succeed me,” he said.[12]

First term incumbent Lt. Gov Sheila Simon (D) is eligible for re-election, but said earlier this year that she would not run for another term in the office in 2014. Instead, Simon said she would seek a new office that would allow her to have a "greater impact," and is now set to seek the office of state comptroller.[13][14] Subsequent to Simon's thinly veiled swipe at the office's unsatisfactory "impact" potential was the Illinois House of Representatives' approval, in April, of a proposal seeking to eliminate the position of lieutenant governor altogether by constitutional amendment. In order for the measure to be passed, it must win approval of both the State Senate and Illinois voters. If the proposal is approved in a statewide public vote, the office will remain intact for one final term following the 2014 election.[15]

Quinn said he’s looking for “a people person,” to replace Simon, and anticipates holding off on a decision until later in the fall.[12]

Buck began his career in education in 1992 as a middle school science teacher, moving from the classroom to administration five years later. He most recently served as superintendent of the Saydel Community School District in Des Moines. Buck is also a former president of School Administrators of Iowa.[19]

While still awaiting Senate confirmation, Harner abruptly resigned on August 26, 2013 at the request of Gov. Corbett. A spokeswoman for the governor would not comment, saying only "it is entirely a personnel matter." Details soon emerged indicating it had to do with a complaint lodged against Harner when he was head of the Cumberland Valley School District. Sources speaking on condition of anonymity said the matter involved an email Harner sent to a male administrator earlier in 2013, asking how he looked in a Speedo bathing suit. The employee then filed a complaint.[20]

In a statement, Harner said he was disappointed he would be unable to continue in the role, saying of the complaint, "It remains my understanding and belief that any complaints made during my tenure as superintendent were fully investigated and no matter was ever determined to be of merit or legal consequence." He went on to accuse those who disagreed with his methods of being responsible for his removal, stating, "detractors to my approach have succeeded in undermining my confirmation with a campaign of distortions. I regret that they have put their interests ahead of their children’s education."[21]

Carolyn Dumaresq, who was serving as the department's executive deputy secretary, was named as the new acting officeholder.[22] Harner’s resignation makes him the fifth statewide education administrator to resign this year.

The race attracted considerable buzz in the lead-up to the election, owing in large part to the controversial education proposals put forth by Gov. Scott Walker (R) in his 2013-2015 budget plan, as well as Pridemore's penchant for provoking the media - with dramatic pronouncements about his campaign agenda or else by creating a blacklist of a number of "liberal"[24] political reporters.[25][26]

Evers received over 61% of the vote, equalling 487,030 votes. This figure points to Evers' growth in popularity since his initial election to the post back in 2009, when he won 439,248 votes and a roughly 15 percentage point victory over a different single challenger, Rose Fernandez.

Virginia

Governor

Current Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell (R) is ineligible to run for re-election in 2013 because of term limits. The term limits Virginia imposes on its governors are more strict than any other state in the country: under the commonwealth's constitution, no governor may serve back-to-back terms. This means that McDonnell, unlike other governors in their first term, is ineligible to run for re-election until a full term has passed.

There are no such term limits on the attorney general, and many were surprised at current AG Ken Cuccinelli's (R) decision to run for governor rather than seek another term. If not for Cuccinelli, Lieutenant GovernorBill Bolling would have been the frontrunner for the Republican nomination to succeed current GovernorBob McDonnell. Bolling expressed more disappointment than surprise that Cuccinelli had chose to challenge him in the gubernatorial primary rather than be his lieutenant gubernatorial running-mate, noting "nothing he does surprises me."[28]

Bolling suspended his campaign on November 28, 2012, citing his slim chances beating tea party favorite and attorney general Ken Cuccinelli for the party's nomination. Bolling's withdrawal stems from a decision by Virginia Republicans to change their method for selecting gubernatorial nominees from open primary election to closed nominating convention.[29] Although Bolling was explicit about ending his pursuit of a place on the Republican ticket, he waited until March 12 before ruling out the possibility of running as an independent candidate instead.[30] About the alternative of seeking re-election to his current post, Bolling stated that, “Under normal circumstances, I would be open to the possibility of running for another term as lieutenant governor, but I would not be interested in running on a statewide ticket with Mr. Cuccinelli.”[31] He later said he regretted dropping out of the race as early as he did.[32]

McDonnell had previously pledged his support for Bolling's candidacy- in part because Bolling refrained from challenging McDonnell for governor in 2009. After Bolling bowed out, McDonnell chose to endorse fellow Republican Cuccinelli for his successor, despite Cuccinelli's outspoken opposition to McDonnell's Transportation Initiative, which is considered to be the centerpiece of his gubernatorial legacy. Ironically, Cuccinelli's future general election opponent, former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe, has been equally outspoken on the issue, but as an advocate and defender of the outgoing governor's approach to amending the state's transportation funding policy.[33][34][35]

In response to the major party nominees, the Libertarian Party held a special convention and nominated Robert Sarvis as the party's official gubernatorial candidate.[36]

Like Cuccinelli and Sarvis, McAuliffe faced no primary contest. The three contenders will square off in the general election on November 5, 2013.[37]

On August 2, 2013, Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA) revealed government documents implicating McAuliffe in a possible investment fraud being investigated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (S.E.C.). Grassley's findings that McAuliffe received special treatment from a high-ranking immigration official further entrenched the candidate in the controversy surrounding Greentech Automotive, a failed electric car company which he founded. Due to its poor performance and its employment of Hillary Rodham Clinton's brother, who handled the company's capital and is thus the target of the investigation, the now well-publicized environmental venture marks a blemish on the McAuliffe-campaign platform: to reinvigorate the state's economy using his business knowledge and experience as a successful job creator. Developments linking McAuliffe to the suspected fraud has made that blemish more pronounced, though polls continue to disprove initial theories that it would severely threaten his chances of overtaking Cuccinelli in the November general election. Cuccinelli had been the beleaguered candidate of the pair up until the Greentech S.E.C. investigation scandal broke and opened McAuliffe up for criticism regarding his history of "mingling politics and business."[38] Still, the latest polls indicate the Democrat has not lost his edge.

Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Lieutenant Governor

Incumbent Lieutenant GovernorBill Bolling (R) is not seeking re-election this year. Nine candidates filed to fill the imminently-open executive seat, including two Democrats and seven Republicans. State Sen. Ralph Northam defeated Aneesh Chopra for the Democratic Party's nomination for lieutenant governor in the June 11 primary election.[39] Northam's general election opponent is Republican E.W. Jackson. Jackson was nominated by delegates of the Virginia Republican Party at the party-funded statewide primary convention on May 17-18.[40]

Jackson, a preacher in Chesapeake, was an unwelcome choice for the state's Republican establishment from the start thanks to his refusal to divert from, or water down the rhetoric of, his "liberty agenda." The agenda contains no earth-shattering stances for a conservative; Jackson is anti-Obamacare, pro-Second Amendment and anti-federal overreach. His approach to delivering these messages, however, has raised more concerns - as well as eyebrows - from the party than was originally anticipated. In August, Jackson referred to the Democratic Party as the "anti-God party" because of its supportive position on same-sex marriage and abortion, cementing his reputation for being impermeable to warnings about how his often inflammatory rhetoric might alienate swing voters or more moderate Republican voters heading into the general election. On Sept. 4, The Washington Post reported that his independent streak has extended to his behind the scenes campaign strategy by declining offers to take advantage of party's voter data tools and field office spaces- a "virtually unheard-of forfeiture of resources for a statewide candidate."[41]

Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Attorney General

In March 2013, Governing magazine rated Virginia's open attorney general seat as "vulnerable" heading into the 2013-2014 elections because incumbent Republican Ken Cuccinelli is not running for re-election.[42]

The race to replace Cuccinelli began at the primary nomination stage; both Republican convention and Democratic election candidates drew primary contests. On May 18, two "strong fiscal and social conservatives"[42] -- state Sen. Mark Obenshain and state Rep. Rob Bell -- competed for delegate votes at the Republican Party of Virginia's closed nominating convention, which Obenshain won.[43] The nominee's late father, GOP politician Richard Obenshain, died in a plane crash during his 1978 campaign for U.S. Senate. Obenshain will square off against state Sen. Mark Herring in the general election. Herring defeated former assistant U.S. Attorney for Virginia Justin Fairfax in the Democratic primary election, which took place on June 11, 2013.[44][42]

Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

New Jersey

Incumbent Republican Gov. Chris Christie and Democratic state Sen. Barbara Buono faced one challenger each in the primary election on June 4, though ultimately neither presented much of a challenge. Both won their respective party nominations with roughly 90% of the vote.[45][46]

Former Atlantic City Councilman Seth Grossman was the sole Republican to brave a run against the popular first term governor, whose star has long been on the rise but turned meteoric in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Grossman's campaign criticized Christie for being overly moderate, while Buono's opponent Troy Webster, adviser to the mayor of East Orange, believed he was uniquely suited to making New Jersey friendlier to "the working poor and middle class families who have been literally 'thrown under the bus.'"[47] Grossman and Webster were endorsed by the weekly publication NJ Today.[48]

In New Jersey, gubernatorial candidates have 30 days to select a lieutenant gubernatorial running mate to share the ticket with in the general election. Immediately after launching his re-election campaign, Christie secured his current Lt. Gov.Kim Guadagno as his running mate, while Buono waited until July 29 to formally announce her choice of union leader Milly Silva as her running mate. Silva is the executive vice president of 1199 SEIU United Healthcare Workers East.[49][50] The two-woman ticket will be up against incumbent Republican governor/lt. governor pair Chris Christie and Kim Guadagno in addition to a number of third party opponents in the general election contest taking place November 5, 2013.

Christie is heavily favored to win re-election, with his campaign raising nearly double that of Buono's in the primary and maintaining a decisive lead in the polls up to the present.[51][52] He also has bipartisan support, which is crucial in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 700,000, according to party registration statistics provided by the New Jersey Department of State.[53]

Since 1977, New Jersey gubernatorial primary and general election candidates can qualify for a public funding program whereby candidates who raise a minimum amount of money are dispensed tax-generated funds, controlled by the state election law enforcement commission, in direct proportion to campaign donations given from the public. In 2013, the qualifying sum for primary gubernatorial candidates is $380,000.[54] The purpose of the program is to lessen the influence of corporate contributions in elections. On February 2, 2013, then-presumptive Democratic nominee Barbara Buono's campaign reported that it had surpassed the $380,000 mark.[55] By that time, Christie's campaign had already raised $2 million. Unlike in 2009, Christie declined to use matching funds in the 2013 primary, but he decided in August to opt into the program for the general election phase. Under the program, Christie is eligible for an additional $8 million, approximately. The terms also state that he must participate in two debates with Buono before Nov. 5.[55][56]

The New Jersey gubernatorial election was rated by the Washington Post as one of the top five races to watch in 2013.[57]

Democratic candidates

Republican candidates

Former potential candidates

Cory Booker - Mayor of Newark Cory Booker declined to seek the Democratic nomination for governor in 2013, opting instead to finish his mayoral term and lay the groundwork for a U.S. Senate bid in 2014.[63][64]

Richard Codey - State Sen. Richard Cody announced on Jan. 25 that a gubernatorial campaign would not serve the best interests of his family; he plans to run for re-election to the State Senate in 2013.[65][59]

Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Ballotpedia has counted and is currently tracking a total of 217 state executive positions in 42 states that will be on the ballot next year. That is more than double the number of positions that were elected in 2012, when 94 positions were elected. The eight states that are not holding executive official elections in 2014 are Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey, North Carolina, Utah, Virginia, Washington and West Virginia.

Notable candidates

South Carolina GovernorNikki Haley (R) officially launched her bid for a second term on August 26. It was unclear if she was going to run or not - in late June she had said, "If we look and it’s too much on the family, I could absolutely see not running again.”[72] State Senator Vincent Sheheen (D), whom Haley defeated in 2010, has already announced that he will seek a rematch in 2014.

Q. When was the last time a Democrat won election to a statewide position in Texas?

Answer: In 1994, three Democrats were elected to statewide office - Bob Bullock (Lieutenant Governor), Dan Morales (Attorney General) and John Sharp (Comptroller). Since then, Texas has not elected a Democrat to a statewide office, giving it the distinction of having gone longer than any other state.[76]

Democratic operatives are seeking to have a genuine shot in 2014, but before that can happen they’ll have to find candidates willing to run. So far, no Democratic candidates have declared for any of the seven statewide positions up for election next year. The party has rallied behind state Sen. Wendy Davis for governor, but she has yet to decided whether or not to run. State Sen. Leticia Van de Putte said she has been approached to run for lieutenant governor, but would not decide until Davis does.[77]