We believe that Indian equity is a very promising asset class to invest in, over the medium term, despite the recent smart run up in the market01-Aug-2017 (14:52)

Mr. Pradeep Gokhale

In an interview with Anjali Raulgaonkar from Capital Market Publishers, Pradeep Gokhale, Senior Fund Manager, Tata Asset Management said, There is a saying 'Never say never' and this is true in the investment business also where there are examples of companies staging smart turnarounds from the brink of bankruptcy.

Excerpts:

Market is at all-time highs and we have seen domestic liquidity driving this market. How are you approaching market right now?

Markets have had a good run since the beginning of this year and both domestic investors through MFs and FII have been buying equities. Valuations,for both Sensex as also the broader market are higher than long term averages but are by no means excessive.Valuations have gone up factoring in the improvement in India's macro-economic factors such as inflation, fiscal and current account deficit and declining interest rates. Now, earnings need to pick up for the markets to progress from here.

Over the last few years, earnings growth has been weak due to issues such as high NPA levels in the banking sector, weak commodity prices, sector specific issues in IT and Pharma and recently the disruptions caused by demonetisation and introduction of GST. We feel the effect on earnings from many of these factors will start receding in the next six months and with good monsoons earnings growth should start to pick up. In the interim, we may see higher volatility in the markets.

What is your investment space?Any stock specific traits which makes it part of your portfolio? What?

We have an investment universe of about 450 companies. We prefer companies that compound their earnings over a longer time frame and which maintain a decent return on capital employed in the business. Management quality is another important aspect we consider before investing in companies. We believe buying a stock at a reasonable price is critical for longer term investment returns. Hence the valuation at which a stock is trading is a very important consideration. We also look at liquidity of the stocks and portfolio. Thus earning growth potential, return on capital employed, management quality, valuation and liquidity are the key parameters on which we base our investment decisions.

What kind of stocks you avoid, why?

There is a saying 'Never say never' and this is true in the investment business also where there are examples of companies staging smart turnarounds from the brink of bankruptcy. That apart, generally I try to avoid businesses with low entry barriers or where the level of value addition by managements is low, companies with high debt levels and history of capital misallocation.

Is there any pre-emptive miss you regret (for instance, not investing in a stock or not possessing enough of it)?

We did not have enough weight in the metals sector during 2016. We did pick some metal stocks at low valuations during February - March 2016 but booked profits early.

What will be your advice to investors?

We believe that Indian equity is a very promising asset class to invest in, over the medium term, despite the recent smart run up in the market. This is because Indian economy has several structural advantages such as favourable demographics (high share of working age population), low levels of household debt, a large domestic economy with low dependence on exports or global commodities, increasing urbanisation and continued focus on economic reforms. Thus investors should systematically invest in the markets and use market volatilities to their advantage.

One has to be selective in identifying the companies /sectors with high growth potential05-Jul-2017 (18:30)

Mr. RITESH JAIN

In an interview with Anjali Raulgaonkar from Capital Market Publishers, Ritesh Jain, CIO, BNP Paribas Mutual Fundsaid, We have had preference for high growth companies as we believe higher earnings growth reflects in superior price performance eventually.

Excerpts:

Where do you see the Indian stock market heading in near term?

The markets have moved up sharply as Nifty has yielded ~18% returns and midcap index ~26% in CY2017 led by strong domestic macros, improving global outlook, global equities rally, lesser impact of demonetization than expected, strong flows from both Domestic and FII investors and hopes of a second consecutive year of normal monsoons. While corporate earnings growth has been lower in last few years, the stage is set for earnings growth to pick up in the ensuing years. while valuations are higher than Long term average, we believe higher earnings growth in next 2-3 years could provide investment opportunities for long term investors. However, going forward, we believe one has to be selective in identifying the companies /sectors with high growth potential.

We believe the government's long-term vision of game changing reforms supported by a slow but steady improvement in economic growth in this calendar year may help build sustainable growth for investors in Indian equities. While the organised sector has been gaining share from unorganised sector, the pace may accelerate post GST implementation which could be positive for the listed companies which largely operate in the organized sector.

What is your investment space?

We focus on companies across the market cap spectrum. Our investment styleis to buy companies with a long-term investment horizon, which is reflected in our bias towards B2C companies and structural themes like consumption / retail financials in India. we have preference for market leaders or companies gaining market share. If Business fundamentals of any company deteriorates we sell it and invest in other ideas that fit in our philosophy.

Any stock specific traits which makes it part of your portfolio? What?

We have always focused on companies with superior businesses that have higher and sustainable earnings growth. We have had preference for high growth companies as we believe higher earnings growth reflects in superior price performance eventually.

We follow BMV framework of investing. Various investment ideas are filtered through our BMV (Business - Management - Valuations) framework of company selection before adding it to investment universe. The Business fundamentals are analyzed based on different parameters like secular trends, uniqueness of business model, moat of business etc. Management's execution capabilityis key in delivering sustained returns within the realm of industry dynamicsand corporate governance are important parameters. Growth At ReasonablePrice (GARP) is the philosophy that is followed while assessing valuations.

What kind of stocks you avoid, why?

We avoid companies which don't fit in our investment philosophy of BMV framework. We avoid companies which are cheap but don't have strong business or management. Similarly, we give high importance to management track record and corporate governance. We have preference for companies which generate good cashflows from the business on a regular basis, hence we stay away from companies with inferior/negative cashflows.

-Is there any pre-emptive miss you regret (for instance, not investing in a stock or not possessing enough of it)?

We always strive to follow our investment process as highlighted earlier, in its true spirit. Hence, we do not regret not owning stocks which have gone up, which do not fit in our investment philosophy. While in case of any stock which we are holding is not performing, we continuously focus on the continuity of moat and growth of the company and would continue to own as long as it fits in our philosophy.

What will be your advice to investors?

Investors should invest in stocks/funds after assessing their future income and liabilities/cash flow requirements. Investing in equities is akin to participating in a marathon rather than a 100 metre sprint. One has to remain invested keeping the long term in mind as equities tend to be volatile over the short term. We believe India has higher growth opportunities in many bottom up companies/sectors from a longer term perspective as per capita income improves and the favourable demographics plays out . Equities being a long-term asset class with 3-5 years horizon,investors with long term approach could invest in Indian equities.

Match the investment horizon and risk appetite to the scheme selection08-May-2017 (14:53)

Mr. Sachin Relekar

In an interview with Anjali Raulgaonkar from Capital Market Publishers, SachinRelekar, fund manager equity at LIC Mutual Fundsaid, our investment strategy is dynamic to take advantage of the ever-changing contours of equity markets.

How to you choose the stocks in your fund portfolio? Kindly elaborate.

As a fund house, we have equity schemes that are categorized as per market capitalization. This determines the investment universe for the portfolios.

Our investment philosophy is clearly articulated:

We care about the corporate governance, sustainability and capital efficiency of the business

We follow bottoms-up investment approach. We do not to bias ourselves on macro, but rather treat macro exposures as risk factors that need to be hedged.

The Investment process is designed to look through current market perception and focus on the intrinsic value

We follow two investment approaches: growth and value investing. Each of the equity scheme is mapped to either of these two approaches. Important overlap between the two approaches is emphasis on risk management. However, subtle difference in the factors emphasized in stock selection, leads to different portfolios.

What was your investment style and criteria in FY17? And what new strategy you are adopting in FY18?

That said, our investment strategy is dynamic to take advantage of the ever-changing contours of equity markets.

Among mid-caps, large-cap and small-cap which stocks are your favorite and why? Kindly elaborate.

We are positive on businesses oriented towards domestic economy. There can be substantial value (e.g. niche IT) and growth (e.g. auto ancillaries) opportunities in export oriented businesses as well.

Among the large caps, we are positive on corporate focused banks as the asset quality issues are likely to show improvement. Similarly,the investment cycle is showing early signs of improvement, leading to interesting opportunities in this space as well.

Among mid and small caps, we will look for companies having clear niche and scalable opportunities. However, one should be careful about the liquidity and valuation ofthese businesses.

Where should an investor invest-in funds focusing on large-cap stocks or mid-cap or small-cap and why?

There is very wide variance in performance of these categories in last three years. This has also led to trailing earnings multiple to differ substantially. Trailing multiple is more of indication of growth expectations.

Price

Curr. EPS

Est. EPS

Curr. PE

Est. PE

BSE Small-Cap

14434

252

802

57.2

18.0

BSE Mid-Cap

14097

474

766

29.8

18.4

S&P BSE Largecap

3582

151

206

23.7

17.4

BSE Sensex

29621

1348

1710

22.0

17.3

Source: Bloomberg, price as on March 31, 2017

This suggests that earnings growth expectations in small and mid-cap stocks is substantially higher than that of large cap category, making it potentially riskier. However, investment universe is quite large and there could several under researched ideas. We would like to pay more attention to risk parameters, while choosing small cap ideas. Small and mid-cap investments tends to be volatile as well, so investment horizon should be longer.

We more positive on large cap and sizable mid cap stocks for FY 18. Our advice to investors is to match the investment horizon and risk appetite to the scheme selection.

In India ETFs are still at a nascent stage and the retail participation is very low27-Mar-2017 (14:06)

Lakshmi Iyer

In an interview with Anjali Raulgaonkar from Capital Market Publishers, Lakshmi Iyer, CIO (Debt) & Head - Products, Kotak Mutual Fundsaid, With institutions such as Employees' Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) committing huge investments into ETF's, hopes are high that the government may prompt state-run agencies and companies to invest in it.

Excerpts:

Are ETFs staging a comeback or seeing a resurgence?

Certainly. In India, ETF's are becoming more popular and more fund houses are filing new ETF products with SEBI. In last 5 years, the growth in ETF AUM was around 32% annually vis-Ã -vis 25% for MF Industry.

Currently, Indian ETF market is one of the fastest growing market in the world. We believe that it is still at a nascent stage. In terms of AUM in the MF industry, it is less than 3% of the industry as of Feb-17.

With institutions, such as Employees' Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) committing huge investments into ETF's, hopes are high that the government may prompt state-run agencies and companies to invest in it.

Please find below AUM YOY figures:

Month

ETF AUM (cr)

Total MF Industry AUM (cr)

ETF AUM Share (%)

YOY ETF AUM Growth (%)

YOY Total MF Industry AUM Growth (%)

Feb-17

45,913

1,789,047

2.57

204.89

145.12

Mar-16

22,409

1,232,824

1.82

152.29

113.86

Mar-15

14,715

1,082,757

1.36

111.44

131.21

Mar-14

13,204

825,240

1.60

100.61

117.65

Mar-13

13,124

701,443

1.87

114.19

119.45

Mar-12

11,493

587,217

1.96

166.18

99.15

Source: AMFI

How do you see the performance of ETFs vis a vis previous year? How has been the performance of ETFs launched a year ago and beyond period (up to 5 yrs)?

ETF's are passive funds and mirrors the performance of its underlying index. The performance of ETFs in last couple of years are in line with its index.

Although rarely considered by the average investor,?tracking errors?can have an unexpected material effect on an investor's returns. It is important to investigate this aspect of any?ETF?index fund before investing.?

Why are ETFs gaining investor fancy?

Reasons why the growth in ETF has picked up:

Low Cost:

In last couple of years, the expenses charged by ETFs have been declining with rising assets. 3 years ago the average expense ratio of the ETFs was around 40-50 bps and currently it has come down to around 10 bps.

EPFO:

The flows in ETF have been increasing mainly from the EPFO investment. In September last year, the EPFO increased its equity allocation to 10% of incremental flows. As per estimates about Rs 18,000 crore has been invested by the EPFO as of Feb-17. This amount may increase further if there is a decision to increase allocation to 15%.?

Disinvestment by Govt.:

In 2014 Govt. has started disinvestment through ETF route. The first ETF was launched in Sep-14 was CPSE ETF. Till now it has collected Rs 9000 crore in two separate offerings and another offering of Rs 2500 crore currently going on.

Who should invest in ETFs? What are the tax advantages and disadvantages?

ETF works for all types of investors. For a first time retail equity investors to a traders and to institutional investors, ETFs is an ideal investment vehicles. ETFs trades like a stock and works like mutual funds, it gives benefits of both sides. Also for investors who looks for passive investment or exposure to any particular index ETF fulfils the requirement along with low cost and portfolio diversification.

ETFs which have Indian equities as underlying have equities taxation(long term Capital gains after 1year is Nil? For non-Indian equity underlying ETfs like gold ETF etc., the taxation is that of debt (long term CapitL Gains post 3years)?

Investors don't incur STT (Securities Transaction Tax) by buying and selling ETF units on exchange. The STT is nil if ETF units are bought on exchange and on selling the STT is 0.01% in comparison with stocks it is 0.10% on both sides. (Please refer to latest tax laws before investing)?

How does the ETF Market in India compare with that in the US? What are the difference/similarities?

In developed markets like US, the ETF offering is much broader and investors have wide range of choices to invest in. ETF's consists of domestic ETF's, International ETF's, Currency ETF's,Alternative ETF's and in various asset classes ETF's. The appetite for ETF's is more in US by retails as well as by institutionalinvestors. In India ETF's are still at a nascent stage and the retail participation is very low. Also due to higher alpha generation by active funds in India investors are not diversifying in ETF's but the same is not with US markets.

In US the ETF flows are higher from retail segment mainly due to the higher awareness on ETFs but the case is not same for India as the retail penetration on ETF is very low.

Also alpha generation in actively managed US funds continues to be a challenge even now?

India is still an alpha market hence we could see gradual but steady growth in ETFs

Earnings recovery would be important for the markets going ahead02-Mar-2017 (14:47)

Mr. Pradeep Gokhale

In an interview with Anjali Raulgaonkar from Capital Market Publishers, Pradeep Gokhale Senior Fund Manager, Tata Mutual Fund, said, We believe in the next two years three themes are likely to play out: Higher capex by Governments and public sector companies â€“ We are playing this through cement, select industrials and construction companies and select Public sector companies.

Excerpts:

What will the key driving factors for markets going ahead? How are your funds positioned in the current market conditions?

The markets have risen strongly in the first two months of CY17 on the back of resumption of flows to emerging markets and better than expected corporate results, for most companies. Looking forward, I think implementation of GST would be a big structural positive. Also, economic growth is expected to improve, as the effect of demonetisation wears off. However, post the recent rally, markets are fairly valued. Thus, earnings recovery would be important for the markets going ahead. In our funds, we are focussing on stocks with decent earnings growth prospects and reasonable valuations.

2. How will you rate Union Budget 2017-18?

The key feature of the Budget is focus on stability and continuity. From equity market's angle, key positives of the budget were:

Measures to improve transparency in political party funding is a bold reform. Overall, it was a positive budget for economy and markets.

3. How do you perceive the government's demonetization move? What are negative and positive implications?

I think the demonetisation move is a part of the larger agenda of financial inclusion, better tax compliance and digitalisation of economy that the Government is following. The negative impact of demonetisation on economic activity is likely to temporary in nature.

4. What are the essential traits for the stocks to be in your portfolio?

We believe the investible universe can be divided into two broad sets: Higher quality set of businesses â€“ companies that have compounding characteristics, good governance, better management quality, innate strengths in their business areas and superior capital efficiency.

Tactical opportunity set - Businesses having a basic standard of quality, which may make a good purchase at a certain valuation. This is the other set of companies that we track for trading gains.

Within these two sets, our bias is towards companies in the first set. I prefer businesses that are scalable, have secular growth opportunities and have better capital efficiencies.

We do buy stocks from the second set as a tactical play, when we feel valuations are in our favour and there could be some catalysts present which could cause the valuations to be rerated.

5. How are the market positioned to face global clues? Share your views on global economies and their impact on India?

There are many uncertainties on the global front such as the US Fed's interest rate outlook, policies that the Trump administration will follow, political uncertainties in Eurozone, etc., which can impact of market sentiments. However, the heartening feature of global economy is that economic growth seems to be recovering almost across the world. Most global research houses have forecast that global economic growth for 2017 is likely to be the strongest since 2011.

6. Is India still an attractive investment destination?

India remains one of the fast-growing economies among the large economies of the world. Also, Indian economy continues to be attractive from a longer term of structural point of view. Key features of Indian economy such as strong demographics, a balanced economy without significant overdependence on exports/ investments / consumption, high savings rates and low indebtedness of households, low penetration levels in many goods and services, all make Indian economy a very attractive proposition for the long term.

7. Which sectors you are considering attractive from investment point of view and why and which sectors you are avoiding and why? What kind of stocks never enters your portfolio?

We believe in the next two years three themes are likely to play out: Higher capex by Governments and public sector companies â€“ We are playing this through cement, select industrials and construction companies and select Public sector companies.

Impact of GST resulting in market share shift in favour of organised players â€“ We are playing this through select consumer and auto/auto ancillary companies.

Higher share of financial savings as we are playing this through select retail oriented banks.

In addition, we have added to our exposure of corporate banks as we believe even some resolution of corporate stress cases would improve their situation. We are also overweight select pharma companies on a bottom up basis. We are equal weight metals. We remain underweight on IT, NBFCs and telecom.

8. How often do you re-balance your equity allocation?

Typically, we don't take large cash calls in the equity portion of the balanced fund. Our equity investment ranges from 70-75% of the fund. If by capital appreciation, equity portion exceeds 75% of AUM, we tactically book profits. Similarly, in a market correction, if the value of equity portion goes down, we add to our equity weight.

9. What would you like to advice to the investors in the current scenario? What strategy would you suggest the investor to adopt at this point of time in the market?

We are positive on the Indian equities continues over the medium term. The Indian equity story is structurally very attractive due to factors such as its demographic profile, low household debt levels, scope for increasing share of financial savings within the total savings pool, increasing urbanization. The macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong and earnings outlook is improving. At current valuations, investors should adopt the systematic approach and use any volatility in markets to their advantage by making a larger allocation to equities.

Given firm crude prices and rising commodity prices, we expect inflation to go up to 4%-4.50% in H1FY1828-Feb-2017 (12:25)

Mr. Akhil Mittal

In an interview with Anjali Raulgaonkar from Capital Market Publishers, Akhil Mittal, Senior Fund Manager-Tata Mutual Fund, said, RBI's commitment towards bringing headline CPI closer to 4.0% on a durable basis and in a calibrated manner is positive for India bond market on a medium to long term basis.

Excerpts:

1. What are your views on fixed income market? How have the yields moved and which direction you see them moving in near to mid-term and why? What will the key driving factors for yields?

We believe that the sovereign bond yields in India have bottomed out and are going to trade range-bound for a foreseeable future. The first signal of yields bottoming out came from RBI in its December monetary policy, in which it maintained status quo on policy rates (against market expectation of 25bps to 50bps repo rate cut), called the negative impact of demonetization as transient and highlighted upside risks to inflation from firming up of crude prices, dollar strengthening and sticky core inflation. Further by changing stance from accommodative to Neutral in February policy, RBI signaled that the objective of achieving the medium term inflation target of 4% with-in a band of +/- 2% is paramount. RBI's commitment towards bringing headline CPI closer to 4.0% on a durable basis and in a calibrated manner is positive for India bond market on a medium to long term basis.

Bond market yields witnessed sharp volatility post demonetization announcement in November. The yield on 10-year Gsec benchmark fell from 6.70% levels in October end to lows of 6.20% levels and spiked up back to 6.75% levels on the day of February monetary policy after RBI downplayed the growth impact of demonetization, changed stance to Neutral and highlighted the importance of 4% inflation target. As market participants revise their expectations on future interest rates, bond market may witness some more volatility in near term. Our base case scenario is a range bound market for the year FY18. We expect 10-year Benchmark yield to trade between 6.70%-7.30% during the year. The surplus banking system liquidity is going to persist for next 6-8 months and will limit upside in bond yields.

Prudent policies of both Government and RBI reinforces the notion that Indian policymakers will not trade-off macroeconomic stability for growth. This signaling by policymakers will augur well for global funds allocation to Indian fixed income market. A stance change to Neutral doesn't necessarily mean end of easing cycle but it does raises the bar of further easing. Domestic Inflation trajectory will play a key role in determining future direction of bond yields. Indian bond market will also look for cues from movement in global bond yields and commodity prices.

2. How will you rate the Union Budget 2017-18?

Finance minister tried to establish a fine balance between fiscal consolidation and providing support to the economy by relaxing the fiscal deficit target to 3.2% from 3.0% as per the FRBM roadmap earlier. One of the key highlights of this year's budget was massive mobilization under the small savings schemes, which can be attributed to demonetization initiative. Net market borrowing after accounting for redemptions and buy-back stands at INR 3.48 trillion, marginally lower than INR3.65 trillion in FY2017. Budget was overall Neutral for the bond markets but lower net borrowing number and proposed buy-backs will present opportunity in the short-end of the curve.

3. How do you perceive the government's demonetization move? What are negative and positive implications?

Demonetization was a historic move. It was aimed to tackle problems of fake currency, shrink the size of the parallel economy and black money in India and reduce corruption. It had its near term negative effects on the growth of the economy as it impacted the consumer spending. Demand shock due to demonetization also resulted in sharp fall in inflation as it brought discretionary spending to a virtual halt. Sectors like realty, consumer durables and jewellery were most impacted and economy might take 1-2 quarters to come out of the shock.

But we feel that long term positives of demonetization exercise far outweigh the short term pain. Demonetization has succeeded in bringing more and more people in to the formal economy and this will play out well for government's tax collections going forward. The continued push towards digital transactions will increase formalization in the economy, boost transparency and reduce corruption.

4. What is your strategy for short term funds? What is your exposure to long term funds and why?

Tata Short Term bond fund aims to generate regular accruals through investments in high credit quality debt and generate capital gains from fall in interest rates. The average maturity of the fund is close to 2 years currently (has been in range of 2 years to 3 years in past) and given the current position in monetary policy cycle, we are cautious on duration. Especially at shorter end of the curve, we believe the risk adjusted return endeavour is more realisable.

5. Kindly share your views on recent inflation movement? Where will the inflation curve move in near term? Why?

CPI inflation moved down to a new low in Jan 2017 at 3.17% y-o-y vs 3.4% in previous month and lower than market expectation of 3.3% led by lower food and fuel inflation. Exceptional vegetable disinflation continues to suppress headline inflation. CPI ex vegetables is at 4.5% y-o-y. Core inflation increased to 5.08% y-o-y vs 4.91% in previous month, but mostly on account of higher prices of transportation fuels. Core Core inflation (Core inflation - transport fuel inflation) remained flat at 4.7% y-o-y. January inflation print marks a low and subsequent inflation prints are expected to be higher given the waning-off of base effect and bottoming out of exceptionally low vegetable inflation. Given firm crude prices and rising commodity prices, we expect inflation to go up to 4%-4.50% in H1FY18 and further move up towards 5% in H2FY18.

6. What's your investment strategy?

We follow a philosophy of SLR in managing our Fixed Income Portfolio's where S for Safety, L for Liquidity and R for Returns is the guiding principle. We maintain high credit quality in our portfolios and do not go down the credit curve. This ensures safety of capital of investors. While allocating the portfolio, we maintain ample liquidity to ensure swift change is possible in case of change of stance / events. Returns are envisaged to be generated in line with objectives of the scheme and risk is contained in the process

7. How often do you re-balance your debt allocation?

We keep a close watch on markets and our portfolios. In case any event / occurrence in the market requires a change in stance, or any developments wherein our views have changed, we rebalance our debt allocation on real time basis. This is a continuous process and not dependent on period / pre-specified date.

However, we have formal process of discussions / market update and forming a view on markets. We do this through Investments Committee meeting / Debt Investment Committee meeting, which happens periodically

8. If the interest rates fall further what will be your strategy for debt funds?

Given the current position we are in the monetary policy cycle, and the future target of CPI inflation, we believe further easing by RBI would be difficult, and contingent to many variables. As RBI has already changed stance to neutral, the chance of rates coming down in a secular manner looks distant. We expect market to start contemplating for an eventual end to easing cycle. This would mean building in a term premium for longer duration, which will result in further steepening of yield curve. In line with our view on markets, if interest rates fall earlier than expected / or steeper than expected, we would be looking to reduce interest rate risk (after having generated capital gains) by reducing duration.

9. What is your advice to the investors?

We would ask investors to stay invested for a longer time period and choose product category depending upon their risk appetite. If one has greater appetite for risk and longer holding horizon, long duration funds could be considered, whereas for investors with shorter investment horizon and / or lower risk appetite, short duration funds could be considered

Demonitisation has stalled the uptick in consumption cycle31-Jan-2017 (13:21)

Mr. Nilesh Shetty

In an interview with Anjali Raulgaonkar from Capital Market Publishers, Nilesh Shetty, Associate Fund Manager-Equity, Quantum AMC, said, One can expect some announcements to kick start the consumption cycle including possible rejig in tax slabs or increase in deductions to leave more purchasing power with the tax payers.

Excerpts:

1) What will the key driving factors for markets going ahead? How are your funds positioned in the current market conditions?

Demonitisation has stalled the uptick in consumption cycle. Private Capex remains weak. Revival of both will be keen watched. Corporate earnings have remained weak for the last three years we remain slightly cautious of the near-term macro and believe there could be downside risks to GDP estimate. The fund strategy remains stock specific and we continue to focus on the managements building the businesses for the long term.

2) What are your expectations from Union Budget 2017-18?

Consumer discretionary spend had collapsed post Demonitisation and still remains below normal. One can expect some announcements to kick start the consumption cycle including possible rejig in tax slabs or increase in deductions to leave more purchasing power with the tax payers. Rural India was particularly badly hit after Demonitisation and one can expect some measures specifically targeted to address rural discontent. Relaxation of FRBM norms is likely to kick start the consumption cycle.

A series of important state elections are scheduled after the budget. There is a risk that the Government may resort to populist policies to garner votes. Any significant populist tilt with weak economic basis may not be perceived favorably. In addition, one of the commitments of the BJP government pre-polls has been to simplify the tax structure as well as administration. However very little has been seen so far. One hopes some movement towards simplifying the tax structure is observed. Timelines for Implementation of GST will be keenly watched

3) Has the change in government proved beneficial to economy so far? How?

There is very little evidence of corruption at the top level which is the biggest positive of this government which remains the biggest positive of this government. There has been some evidence of simplification of laws but by and large a lot needs to be done

4) How do you perceive the government's demonetization move? What are negative and positive implications?

Demonitisation has been a very poorly conceived and executed plan. Looking at the economic costs involved with loss of productivity, lower revenues, loss of taxes, and stalling of the consumption cycle, the payoffs could never justify whatever the government was trying to achieve in terms of targeting black money. One may see some reversal of underreporting by the informal sector but by and large the negatives still far outweigh the positives.

5) What are the essential traits for the stocks to be in your portfolio?

We follow a value style of investing. Our strategy remains to buy good stocks at reasonable valuations to generate sustainable long term returns. We are purely bottom up stock pickers and just focus on long term fundamentals while trying to value companies. We have a predetermined Buy and Sell limit for each stock actively covered by our research team. The limits are decided based on sustainable cash flow generating ability of a company and its long term valuation bands. Once a stock hits our buy limit it finds its way into our portfolio and once it hits our sell limit it exits our portfolio.

6) How are the market positioned to face global clues? Share your views on global economies and their impact on India?

Global events like Brexit and Trump Winning the US elections are indicators that we may over the next few years see a world which is a lot more insular and protectionist in policymaking. One may also see economic costs being imposed on businesses which thrive on the free movement of goods and labour. Fortunately for India it still remains a domestic story driven by the Indian consumer. India should be one of the least impacted countries if there are significant barriers imposed on global trade.

7) Is India still an attractive investment destination?

India remains a long term structural story. We have some great companies run by excellent managements who are building businesses for the long term. Near term there might be some issues with weak corporate performance but we believe over the next five years there could be decent upside from current levels. We believe Indian equities as an asset class will continue to draw long term patient capital from abroad.

8) Which sectors you are considering attractive from investment point of view and why and which sectors you are avoiding and why? What kind of stocks never enters your portfolio?

We have a stock specific strategy and are sector agnostic. Currently consumer discretionary led by two wheelers have larger weight in the portfolio followed by power and gas utilities purely due to attractive valuations. We do not have any allocation to consumer staples purely due to expensive valuations. Companies with weak corporate governance and a history of treating minority shareholders poorly do not come into our portfolio.

9) How often do you re-balance your equity allocation?

We are never in a hurry to re-balance or keep changing our portfolio. Our strategy is to buy good companies at comfortable valuations and wait patiently for value to emerge. We sell only when the stock becomes expensive and hits our sell limit. Ignoring market froth has allowed us to generate steady returns over the long term. We don't mind holding on a company for long time. The best investors have held good companies over decades to generate superior returns.

10) Kindly share your investment strategy with us. Are you making any changes to your scheme's portfolio as we witness change in market?

We are a boring long only value fund. We tend to have very low churn. We focus on individual companies and any stock if its hits our Buy limit will be part of the portfolio irrespective of market levels. Similarly, we exit companies if they hit our sell limit irrespective of market levels. We do take any view on markets and avoid making portfolio changes based on the same.

11) What would you like to advice to the investors in the current scenario? What strategy would you suggest the investor to adopt at this point of time in the market?

Near term there could be some turbulence related to rising inflation and weak corporate performance. However, India is a long term structural story, hence any significant correction should be used a great buying opportunity. Timing the market is tough hence a sustained allocation to equities via SIP is best advised.

We expect inflation to undershoot RBI's target of 5% by March 201709-Dec-2016 (17:30)

Mr. Puneet Pal

In an interview with Anjali Raulgaonkar from Capital Market Publishers, Puneet Pal, Head Fixed Income, BNP Paribas Mutual Fundsaid, The key driving factor for yields would be lower Inflation and the favorable demand supply dynamics post demonetization as demand for gilts will increase structurally over the medium term due to increase in Bank deposits.

Excerpts:

1.What are your views on fixed income market? How have the yields moved and which direction you see them moving in near to mid-term and why? What will the key driving factors for yields?

Yields in India have come down by 50-60 basis points across the curve over the last one month. Since the beginning of this year yields have come down by 150 basis points. We expect the 10-year bond yield to come down further to 6.00% by March 2017, the fall in yields is reflecting the fall in Inflation and we expect Inflation to undershoot RBI's March 2017 target of 5.00%.

The demonization of high denomination currency announced by the Government will lead to further fall in Inflation and the recent drop in yields is reflecting those expectations. We expect 50 bps rate cut by March 2017. The key driving factor for yields would be lower Inflation and the favorable demand supply dynamics post demonetization as demand for gilts will increase structurally over the medium term due to increase in Bank deposits. We expect a net addition of INR 2-3 trn in bank deposits over the medium term because of demonetization.

2. How do you perceive the government's demonetization move? What are negative and positive implications?

Demonetization is a bold move by the government. We believe that along with Demonetization other follow through measures will be needed and more administrative steps will be required to reinforce the strong message which demonetization has delivered.

Demonetization, if followed through by other administrative steps, will lead to a wider Tax base in the economy and will structurally improve the Tax / GDP ratio in the economy. Apart from that it will also lead to increase in share of financial savings over a period and will be beneficial for the Financial Services Industry the Asset Management Industry. There will be major positives over the medium term though short term adjustment can be stressful.

3.What is your strategy for short term funds? What is your exposure to long term funds and why?

In our short term, Income Funds, we are keeping the portfolio average maturity close to 3yrs as we believe that from a risk adjusted basis the 3yr point on the curve looks better. Our portfolio has a combination of money market instruments and short term debt instruments and we manage the portfolio in a conservative manner. Our investment philosophy is all about delivering a superior risk adjusted return. We are conservative in taking credits in our portfolio's and only invest in securities whose rating is AA- and above.

4.Kindly share your views on recent inflation movement? Where will the inflation curve move in near term? Why?

The CPI Inflation for October came in at 4.20%, going ahead we expect Inflation to remain low as normal monsoons have lowered food prices and the immediate impact of demonetization will be lower Inflation and growth, which can continue for the next 2-3 quarters. We expect inflation to undershoot RBI's target of 5% by March 2017. Over the next one year we expect Inflation to remain below 5% and average around 4.5% over the course of the next one year, primarily because lower food prices and demonetization.

5.What's your investment strategy?

Our Investment Philosophy is to deliver superior risk adjusted returns to the Investor. This is the guiding principal across our portfolio's. The strategy for individual portfolio's will depend upon the positioning of respective funds. In some of our funds we may take tactical calls and in other funds we may take a more longer term view.

Our Investment strategy for individual funds starts from the asset allocation decision depending upon the product's positioning along with the regulatory requirements concerning the fund. Our outlook on Interest rates will determine the kind of duration that we will run in our portfolio's and the relative valuation of the different maturity buckets will determine the position on the yield curve. Likewise, the outlook on the credit scenario will determine our exposure to various sectors. Our overall credit policy is conservative and we do not take exposure to securities whose rating is below AA-.

6.How often do you re-balance your debt allocation?

In the normal course, we review our portfoliosmonthly though we may or may not rebalance the portfolio at the time of review. The need to rebalance our portfolio's will arise when there is a change in our outlook and that will depend upon the evolving market scenario. We keep a regular tab on both domestic and global macroeconomic variables and how they are likely to impact the markets.

7.If the interest rates fall further what will be your strategy for debt funds?

We do expect policy rate to fall by another 50-bps going factor and as such as per the given positioning of various individual funds, we are maintaining a long duration bias in our funds.

8.What is your advice to the investors?

Currently from a risk reward perspective we would advise Investors to invest in Short term Income Funds considering the fact that Interest rates and yields have fallen by 175 basis points over the last two years and though we expect further reduction in policy rates to the tune of 50-70 bps points , we advise the investors to be overweight on the short term income funds considering that fact that they will be investing for a period of 3yrs. Those investors with a shorter term and tactical view can invest in gilt funds or dynamic bond funds.

9. Has the inflation started to fall again? What will be the RBI's move in coming policy amidst global and domestic events?

Yes, Inflation has fallen on back of lower food prices and we expect Inflation trajectory to be lower at around 4.5% over the next one year. We expect RBI to cut rates by 50 basis points over the next three months.

In the medium to long term, the Indian equity market will be primarily swayed by the trajectory of earnings growth08-Dec-2016 (16:41)

Mr. KarthikrajLakshmanan

In an interview with Anjali Raulgaonkar from Capital Market Publishers, KarthikrajLakshmanan, Co-Fund Manager, BNP Paribas Mutual Fundsaid, Demonetization would pave the way for GST implementation next year and help in financial inclusion. Hence, while the short-term disruption is likely, we believe the long-term potential benefits of the move outweigh.

Excerpts:

1. What will the key driving factors for markets going ahead? How are your funds positioned in the current market conditions?

The key driving factors over the next one year for the domestic economy will include:

We believe this government has a long term approach towards strengthening and resolving domestic variables. Union Budget to be presented in Feb 2017 will be another key milestone to watch. In past Union budgets, government has mentioned about its intent to focus on infrastructure spending lead economic recovery, predictable and low corporate tax regime & balance focus between rural and urban population.

While we all expect interest rates to decline, it will be interesting to see the pace and timing of the same. The likely slowdown of the growth engine in the aftermath of demonization can force RBI's hands and we could see a 50 bps cut sooner rather than later. We expect 50 bps rate cut by March 2017.

We believe, BFSI sector is likely to be one of the biggest beneficiary of economic recovery, lower interest rates & stronger credit growth. We are overweight on private banks, which have shown a good track record for profitably gaining market share, have a good mix of retail and corporate loans, and are well capitalized. We are positive on select PSU banks.

Among retail asset financing NBFCs and Housing Finance companies, the high valuations that prevailed earlier have corrected post demonetization and look more attractive. In the short term, there may be some increase in loan slippages but may not end up in significant higher credit costs. Once the new currency notes circulation becomes adequate in coming months, the collections should normalise for these companies. There may be a few months of lower growth for them. However, the structural story remains intact.

Another sector that we are positive on from a 2-3 year perspective is cement. Here some of the large and efficient players continue to add capacity. Demand is expected to improve over this period, while supply will be more restricted.

We are underweight information technology sector. Besides, we are also underweight on Auto, Oil & gas and Consumer non-durables.

2. Has the change in government proved beneficial to economy so far? How?

The government has taken various reform measures in last couple of years which include Jan Dhan accounts for financial inclusion and facilitation of direct benefits transfer, crop insurance, low-cost housing scheme, improvement in ease of doing business, passage of bankruptcy code, encouraged competitive federalism amongst states, Goods & services tax bill and Demonetization of high value currency recently. Of these, Goods & services tax is one of the most important measures with long term structural positive potential to bring the informal sector into the tax ambit, increase tax buoyancy and eventually reduce tax rates. We believe demonetization would pave the way for implementation of GST as it leads the economy to move towards cashless transactions.

3. How do you perceive the government's demonetization move? What are negative and positive implications?

Government's move to demonetize higher denomination currency and replace with new notes would have a positive impact on Indian economy on a structural basis. While In the short term, the consumption sector might get impacted due to high cash usage, property prices may see correction and overall economy would miss out on some regular business leading to lower GDP and earnings growth for FY17, the longer-term positives will be many, in our view, if the new currency is rolled out to a sufficient level in next month or so to ease the cash crunch being witnessed currently. In the process of demonetization, we believe some portion of the demonetized currencies deposited with banks may stay in the form of CASA (Low cost) deposits which will add to their topline (Net Interest Income). We believe the deposit accretion due to this move could lead to further lower interest rates in coming months. Out of the total high value currency, the amount that does not come back to the banking system will be extinguished and would be a surplus for the government. Besides, some of the unaccounted income might get reported leading to better tax revenues this year. The move to focus on bringing more people under the tax net would lead to better tax buoyancy and provide room to lower tax rates in the medium to Long term. Also, this would help the formal industry as it gains share. Demonetization would pave the way for GST implementation next year and help in financial inclusion. Hence, while the short-term disruption is likely, we believe the long-term potential benefits of the move outweigh.

4. What are the essential traits for the stocks to be in your portfolio?

At BNP, we follow the investment philosophy known as BMV (Business- management- Valuation). As per our philosophy, we analyze the business of the company for secular trends, uniqueness of business model and other advantages like strong brands, low cost production advantage, license in a regulated business, network effect, etc which provide sustainability and higher visibility to the company's earnings. we also evaluate the management's execution capability and corporate governance. Besides, clearly being growth focused, we buy companies with higher earnings growth at reasonable valuations.

5. How are the market positioned to face global clues? Share your views on global economies and their impact on India?

The global equity market are expected to be influenced by certain developments going forward. These would include the performance of the Trump administration, the likely hike in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and the developing political scenario in Europe.

Overall developed market economies i.e. Europe, USA and Japan will continue to exhibit low growth. In the USA, if President Trump follows up on his campaign promises, we could see a fresh round of investment in the country's infrastructure, lower individual and corporate tax rates and increased trade protectionism. This has the potential to lift US economic growth prospects some time down the line. The probability of a Fed rate hike in December has gone up substantially and has led to the US dollar strengthening. As a result, most emerging market currencies are correcting. Another interesting development to watch out for is the developing political climate in the EU.

While global cues are always important to gauge the direction of foreign fund flows, in the medium to long term, the Indian equity market will be primarily swayed by the trajectory of earnings growth.

6. Is India still an attractive investment destination?

Barring the short term impact of demonetization on growth and the emerging market sell-off since US Presidential elections, we believe India offers a good growth opportunity as most of the macro-variables are moving in the positive direction, local currency has been stable in last few years, reform measures are likely to contribute positively and State governments' increasingly focus on development as a way to get re-elected . India continues to be amongst the fastest growing economies globally with favorable demographics in terms of median age & working age population. India is relatively less dependent on external trade compared to other emerging markets.

7.Which sectors you are considering attractive from investment point of view and why and which sectors you are avoiding and why? What kind of stocks never enters your portfolio?

We are overweight on the banking and financial services space. In the case of banks, as their CASA ratio improves, interest rates will go down. People will come into the formal banking system from cash system leading to higher growth. And as some of the cash economy people develop a banking track record, it will be easier for them to get funding from the organised sector. This will give a fillip to retail sector lending.

We are overweight on private banks, which have shown a good track record for profitably gaining market share, have a good mix of retail and corporate loans, and are well capitalised.We are positive on select PSU banks.

Among retail asset financing NBFCs and Housing Finance companies, the high valuations that prevailed earlier have corrected post demonetization and look more attractive. In the short term, there may be some increase in loan slippages but may not end up in significant higher credit costs. Once the new currency notes circulation becomes adequate in coming months, the collections should normalise for these companies. There may be a few months of lower growth for them. However, the structural story remains intact.

Another sector that we are positive on from a 2-3 year perspective is cement. Here some of the large and efficient players continue to add capacity. Demand is expected to improve over this period, while supply will be more restricted.

We are underweight on information technology. These are good companies, with good management and good return ratios. However the growth outlook is muted for the next couple of years. We follow a BMV framework: business, management, and valuations. And in business we look for growth focused businesses. Where growth is lacking, we tend to avoid those sectors. That is why we are underweight on IT at present, where the visibility for growth is limited.

Besides, we are also underweight on Auto, Oil & gas and Consumer non-durables.

8. Donald Trump's victory and impact on India, how you will explain it?

Indian Information technology (IT) sector is significantly dependent on the United States. While US election results add to mid-term uncertainty on IT spending into FY18, FY17 guidance remains unchanged for most Indian IT services companies.

Based on President Donald Trump's views during his campaign, it is believed that his policy will be expansionary, focus on infrastructure spending, lower taxes and He may also go in for a policy of trade protectionism. The probability of a Fed rate hike in December has gone up substantially and has led to the US dollar strengthening. The dollar index is at a multi-year high. Most emerging market currencies are correcting. While the Indian rupee has been steady for the past couple of years, it has participated in the recent correction as there have been FII outflows.

India has also been impacted by the broad emerging market sell-off. Trade protectionism may affect India less on a relative basis to other emerging markets because of lower direct trade exposure to the US and it is also more of a domestic consumption focused economy. Besides, India's macro-economic situation is much better today than it was in 2013.

9. Has the inflation started to fall again? What will be the RBI's move in coming policy amidst global and domestic events?

Headline CPI inflation has been moderating for last few months and the latest reading was lower at 4.2% for October 2016 led by lower food & fuel prices. However core inflation has hovered around 5%. With demonetization impacting demand too, CPI inflation may be lower and may be around 5% levels by the end of the financial year. We believe the RBI may cut interest rates by 50 bps till March 2017 in order to boost growth especially post the short term disruption caused by demonetization.

10.How often do you re-balance your equity allocation?

We do not actively take cash calls. If Business fundamentals of any company deteriorates we sell it and invest in other ideas that fit in our philosophy.

11. Kindly share your investment strategy with us. Are you making any changes to your scheme's portfolio as we witness change in market?

Our investment style is to buy companies with a long term investment horizon, which is reflected in our bias towards B2C companies and structural themes like consumption / retail financials in India.

As highlighted above, we are overweight Financials and Cement while we are underweight Information Technology, Oil & Gas, Auto and Consumer non-durables.

12. What would you like to advice to the investors in the current scenario? What strategy would you suggest the investor to adopt at this point of time in the market?

Given the lower interest rate scenario, likely movement of some savings from physical to financial assets due to demonetization and higher earnings growth visibility in the medium term, prospects for equities as an asset class looks positive from a 3 year perspective and hence we believe long term investors have good opportunity to make healthy returns by staying invested in the same.

In an interview with Anjali Raulgaonkar from Capital Market Publishers, Akhil Mittal, Senior Fund Manager, Tata Mutual Fundsaid, With FY17 CPI inflation target of 5% having even probability of getting achieved, we believe that there is some space for easing with RBI and expect a 25 bps cut. However, any action beyond that will be purely data dependent.

Excerpts:

1.What are your views on fixed income market? How have the yields moved and which direction you see them moving in near to mid-term and why? What will the key driving factors for yields?

Since beginning of 2015, RBI continued its accommodative stance, with cumulative rate cuts totalling 150bps. This was made possible by the CPI Inflation coming off despite a second successive year of deficient monsoon, largely aided by plunging crude prices and high base effect. The macroeconomic scenario was a mixed bag with inflation, CAD and reserves doing well but still reasonable slack in the economic activity although the GDP still ticked the world's highest at 7.6%.

The sovereign bond yields remained volatile during the last 6 months. The 10-year benchmark yield which had touched a low of 7.5% in October 2015, when the RBI cut its policy rates by 50 bps from 7.25% to 6.75% taking comfort from the falling inflation, moved up during the subsequent months, mainly due to global factors. The US Dollar rally induced by the divergent monetary policy and the concerns of Chinese slow down led to Rupee coming under pressure, as the FIIs turned net sellers. Added to this, the concerns on the Government's intent to stick to the fiscal consolidation path resulted in 10-year benchmark yield touching a high of 7.88% during the month of Feb-16. However, since the month of March, the sentiments improved as both the domestic and external factors turned favorable. The big positive for the bond yields came from the budget, when the Government decided to opt for macro stability and stuck to the earlier agreed deficit reduction plan (3.5% for FY17 vs 3.9% for FY16). Another key positive for the fixed income market was moderating inflation situation. Added to all these macro factors, RBI changed the liquidity stance from deficit mode to neutral mode. All these factors resulted in massive rally in fixed income market and sharp fall in yields across the yield curve. 10 yr G-sec yield fell to 6.95% as on 27th Sept and we also witnessed similar fall in corporate bond yields.

Going ahead, we believe that monetary policy continues to look at easing space from fall in retail inflation, while keeping other factors at back of mind. With FY17 CPI inflation target of 5% having even probability of getting achieved, we believe that there is some space for easing with RBI and expect a 25 bps cut. However, any action beyond that will be purely data dependent. We expect 10 yr G-sec to trade in range of 6.75% - 7% in near term and settling around 6.65% - 6.90% by end of financial year.

2. What is your strategy for short term funds? What is your exposure to long term funds and why?

Tata Short Term bond fund aims to generate regular accruals through investments in high credit quality debt and generate capital gains from fall in interest rates. The average maturity of the fund has been in range of 2 years to 3 years in recent past and given the easing monetary policy cycle and current position therein, we are currently cautiously bullish on duration. Especially at shorter end of the curve, we believe the risk adjusted return endeavour is more realisable.

3.Kindly share your views on recent inflation movement? Where will the inflation curve move in near term? Why?

India headline inflation surprised on the downside in August 2016 at 5.05% vs 6.1% in July. The decline was driven by a combination of lower food prices and favorable base effects. Food price inflation fell sharply to 5.9% y-o-y from a 23-month high of 8.4% in July, led by a sharp fall in prices of vegetables (-3.7%), pulses (-1.0%) and meat & fish (-1.3%). Meanwhile, core CPI moved up marginally to 4.7%, from 4.6% in July. We expect the headline CPI inflation to moderate to below 5% in coming months owing to base effects, but we expect it to revert back towards the RBI's target of 5% by March 2017.

However, potential increase in house rent allowances and GST implementation could push headline inflation above the RBI's 4%+/-2% target in 2017.

4.What's your investment strategy?

We follow a philosophy of SLR in managing our Fixed Income Portfolio's where S for Safety, L for Liquidity and R for Returns is the guiding principle. We maintain high credit quality in our portfolios and do not go down the credit curve. This ensures safety of capital of investors. While allocating the portfolio, we maintain ample liquidity to ensure swift change is possible in case of change of stance / events. Returns are envisaged to be generated in line with objectives of the scheme and risk is contained in the process

5.How often do you re-balance your debt allocation?

We keep a close watch on markets and our portfolios. In case any event / occurrence in the market requires a change in stance, or any developments wherein our views have changed, we rebalance our debt allocation on real time basis. This is a continuous process and not dependent on period / pre-specified date.

However, we have formal process of discussions / market update and forming a view on markets. We do this through Investments Committee meeting / Debt Investment Committee meeting, which happens periodically

6.If the interest rates fall further what will be your strategy for debt funds?

Given the current position we are in the monetary policy easing cycle, and the future target of CPI inflation, we believe RBI has some space for easing but contingent to many variables. As we go accomplishing the CPI targets and hence easing, we will reach a point where further fall in inflation will be difficult. There, we expect RBI to change stance to neutral and we expect market to start contemplating for an eventual end to easing cycle. This would mean building in a term premium for longer duration, which will result in furthersteepening of yield curve.

In line with our view on markets, if interest rates fall earlier than expected / or steeper than expected, we would be looking to reduce interest rate risk (after having generated capital gains) by reducing duration

7.What is your advice to the investors?

We would ask investors to stay invested for a longer time period and choose product category depending upon their risk appetite. If one has greater appetite for risk and longer holding horizon, long duration funds could be considered, whereas for investors with shorter investment horizon and / or lower risk appetite, short duration funds could be considered

8. Has the inflation started to rise again? What will be the RBI's move in coming policy amidst rising CPI?

The recent headline inflation reading has surprised a bit on the downside. Large part of this fall can be attributed to food price decrease. Food prices especially the perishables, are highly volatile and persistence still needs to be ascertained. Meanwhile, core CPI moved up marginally to 4.7%, from 4.6% in July. Going ahead, movement in pulses prices and any increase in crude prices are likely to impinge on inflation in the economy. Stickiness in the underlying gauge of inflation limits the scope of any sharp downside movement in inflation.

On the policy front, RBI has indicated that it would look through the purely statistical element of movement in inflation, we still believe that benign core inflation provides some space for easing. Hence, given the recent readings, and evolving price dynamics, we do not rule out a rate cut in October policy meet. However, any policy move beyond 25 bps will be purely data dependent.

9. Foreign investors are shying from Indian markets. How do you explain it even after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 29 February budget sparked a rally in bonds and the rupee?

Foreign investors generally follow the broader capital flow in risk-on / risk-off moves. India's macro situation has been stabilizing and standing out within other EM peers over last 2 years. Thus, India has attracted lots of capital flows in last year or so. In recent times, the global volatility has increased and factors affecting capital flows have become more volatile.But even in this current scenario, India still continues to remain attractive, albeit temporary pause in inflows.

We would therefore advise investors to continue to invest systematically in Indian equities and use any volatility caused by global factors to their a28-Sep-2016 (18:36)

Mr. Pradeep Gokhale

In an interview with Anjali Raulgaonkar from Capital Market Publishers, Pradeep Gokhale, Senior Fund Manager, Tata Mutual Fund said, We feel the earnings growth in India will come primarily from improving private consumption (helped in part by monsoons and the 7th pay commission award), rising public sector capex and the impact of lower interest rates on corporate profits.

Excerpts:

1. What will the key driving factors for markets going ahead? How are your funds positioned in the current market conditions?

The equity markets have rerated substantially from February lows and valuations are slightly higher than long term averages. The progress from hereon would be dependent on the earnings recovery. While EPS growth estimated for FY17 is not very high, estimates for FY18 factor in growth in the region of 18-20%. The other factor, obviously is the global risk on risk off sentiments which determine the global fund flows into or out of equity as an asset class.

We feel the earnings growth in India will come primarily from improving private consumption (helped in part by monsoons and the 7th pay commission award), rising public sector capex and the impact of lower interest rates on corporate profits. Our portfolios are positioned to benefit from these trends and hence are overweight domestic cyclical such as consumer discretionary, cement and select construction and industrial companies and retail lending oriented banks and NBFCs.

We are underweight sectors with strong global linkages such as commodities and IT and also on corporate banks due to the impact on asset quality due to slower global growth.

2. Has the change in government proved beneficial to economy so far? How?

We, for the first time in last 30 years, have a Government that has full majority in Lok Sabha. Thus, we see pace of decision making and execution improving. Government measures in general are oriented towards improving productivity levels in the economy. There is clear focus on improving infrastructure while at the same time keeping fiscal deficit and inflation under control. Reduction in subsidies, focus on implementation of Aadhar, steps to improve financial inclusions, UDAY scheme, progress on GST, strong increase in public sector capex, are some of the examples of Government initiatives. Also, the Government seems to be taking decisions with a longer term view and not trying to do aim for short term results.

3. What are the essential traits for the stocks to be in your portfolio?

We primarily follow Growth at Reasonable Price (GARP) style of investing. We believe in buying businesses with good earnings growth prospects over the medium term, which are run by quality managements with a track record of good capital allocation, with reasonable levels of debt. We focus on company's return of capital employed (ROCE) and cash generation, earnings growth prospects, management quality, valuations and liquidity. Our experience has been that even if one buys good businesses at fair prices, the compounding of earnings gives you good return over a two- three year period. The core of our portfolio is built using this approach. We also sometimes use the value strategy, where reasonable quality businesses are available at attractive valuation. However, such strategy is used more tactically.

4.How are the market positioned to face global clues? Share your views on global economies and their impact on India?

In recent times, global markets have been dealing with the prospect of 'normalisation' of interest rates by US Fed. At the same time, we have negative interest rates in many developed markets. A rise in interest rates can impact equity markets in the short term. However, we feel markets are in a sense prepared for it and it would not impact the longer term trend of the markets. However,many large economies of the world such as Japan, European Union, China are going through a phase of low growth. In recent times, we have seen some stabilization and improvement in these economies, which has been positive for equity markets across the globe. Any further slowdown in growth, particularly in China would have an adverse impact on the markets.

5. How is India Inc's earnings picture getting affected by the collapse in commodities? Is it possible to scale it?

The collapse in commodities has helped the commodity consuming sectors such as consumer staples, consumer durables, autos etc. These sectors have seen EBITDA margins improve to historically high levels. It has also helped moderate inflation and thus given a boost to consumer demand. However, it has badly impacted the profitability of commodity producers. This also has had an adverse impact on the asset quality of corporate lenders. Recently, we have seen a stabilization of commodity prices at lower levels. If these prices remain stable at current levels, next year we would not have the negative earnings impact as it is already in the base.

6.Which sectors you are considering attractive from investment point of view and why and which sectors you are avoiding and why? What kind of stocks never enters your portfolio?

As stated above, we are overweight on domestic cyclical such as consumer discretionary, cement and select construction and industrial companies and retail lending oriented banks and NBFCs. We are also overweight on pharma and agrochemicals, more on a bottom up stock basis. We are underweight IT and commodity sectors due to weak global growth. We are also underweight corporate banks due to high NPA provisioning and resultant weak profitability.

As regards what kind of stocks that never enter my portfolio, I would say that the saying 'Never say never' is true in the investment business also where there are examples of companies staging smart turnarounds from the brink of bankruptcy. Having said that, generally I try to avoid businesses with low entry barriers or where the level of value addition by managements is low, companies with high debt levels and history of capital misallocation.

7.How your equity schemes differ from your competitors'?

Growth at reasonable price (GARP) is my preferred investment style. Thus typically my portfolios have companies with secular growth potential and higher return on equity (ROE) which is normally associated with higher P/E and P/B ratios. Generally, we have a lower share of the typical value stocks. Also, our portfolio turnover is also on the lower side.

8. Has the inflation started to rise again? What will be the RBI's move in coming policy amidst rising CPI?

We have seen some increase in inflation readings, partly due to lower base as the previous year we had record low inflation due to sharp fall in commodity prices. However, the increase in inflation has been moderate and within the limits stated by RBI in its monetary policy. Thus we don't expect a structural rise in inflation unless global commodity prices improve substantially. Our debt team expects RBI may do a rate cut of 25 bps by March 2017.

9.How often do you re-balance your equity allocation?

Typically, we don't take large cash calls in the equity portion of the balanced fund. Our equity investment ranges from 70-75% of the fund. If by capital appreciation, equity portion exceeds 75% of AUM, we tactically book profits. Similarly, in a market correction, if the value of equity portion goes down, we add to our equity weight.

10. Kindly share your investment strategy with us. Are you making any changes to your scheme's portfolio as we witness change in market?

Our strategy is more focused on companies with earnings growth. In the equity market rally from February lows, value stocks have outperformed growth stocks. Thus the valuation differentials between value and growth stocks are not very high. Hence, we feel returns going forward will be more determined by earnings growth prospects. Hence, at this juncture we are not materially changing our strategy.

11. What would you like to advice to the investors in the current scenario? What strategy would you suggest the investor to adopt at this point of time in the market?

We are positive on the Indian equities continues over the medium term. The Indian equity story is structurally very attractive due to factors such as its demographic profile, low household debt levels, scope for increasing share of financial savings within the total savings pool, increasing urbanization. The macro-economic fundamentals remain strong and earnings outlook is improving. We would therefore advise investors to continue to invest systematically in Indian equities and use any volatility caused by global factors to their advantage.

We expect the bond yields to come down by further 15-20 bps over the next 6 months17-Aug-2016 (14:33)

Mr. Puneet Pal

In an interview with Anjali Raulgaonkar from Capital Market Publishers, Puneet Pal, Debt Fund Manager, BNP Paribas Mutual Fundsaid, We expect rates to fall further and as such our various portfolio's are positioned to take advantage of such a scenario within the respective market positioning of the funds.

Excerpts:

1. What are your views on fixed income market? How have the yields moved and which direction you see them moving in near to mid-term and why?

Over the last couple of months' yields have been coming down. The benchmark 10 yr bond yield has softened by 35bps. This rally in domestic bond yields is in sync with bond yields coming down world-wide. Domestic money market liquidity has also improved which has supported the rally. Going forward we expect the bond yields to come down by further 15-20 bps over the next 6 months.

2. What will the key driving factors for yields?

The key driving factor for yields will be improved liquidity conditions due to further open market operations by RBI, Normal monsoons leading to lower food prices and lower bond yields world wide.

3. What is your strategy for short term funds? What is your exposure to long term funds and why?

In our short term funds we are running a duration of 2.5 yrs and intend to keep the average duration in a range of 2-3 yrs. Our view is that the short end of the curve will continue to be supported by easy liquidity conditions and expectations of some more monetary easing by RBI. In long term funds we are currently running duration of 7 years as we still expect long bond yields to come down by 15-20 bps.

4. Kindly share your views on recent inflation movement? Where will the inflation curve move in near term? Why?

Inflation numbers over the last couple of months have surprised to the upside due to higher food Prices but we expect inflation to moderate going forward as food prices will likely ease on normal monsoons and commodity prices have also moderated with Oil coming down by 15% in the last 2 months.

5. What's your investment strategy?

Our Investment strategy revolves around generating superior risk adjusted returns over the long term. We endeavour to achieve this by superior asset allocation and dynamic duration management which is backed by strong macro research.

6. How often do you re-balance your debt allocation?

We review our asset allocation on a monthly basis though it can be more frequent depending upon evolving market conditions.

7. If the interest rates fall further what will be your strategy for debt funds?

We expect rates to fall further and as such our various portfolio's are positioned to take advantage of such a scenario within the respective market positioning of the funds.

8. What is your advice to the investors?

From a Fixed Income perspective , our advice to the investors is to have a 60:40 allocation to short term and dynamic bond funds respectively. We will also advice investors to invest in debt funds from an asset allocation perspective and not from a short term tactical perspective.

9. Has the inflation started to rise again? What will be the RBI's move in coming policy amidst rising CPI?

As stated earlier , we expect inflation to moderate and the recent rise in Inflation is due to seasonal factors which are likely to reverse with normal monsoons and also the fact the oil has come down by 15%. We expect status quo on rates in the upcoming credit policy.

10. When and how do you see rural consumption recovering?

About 45% of monsoon season is over and it has been normal so far. With good monsoon we expect rural economy to do well, coming off the base of two consecutive poor monsoon. The rural economy is likely to perform well in near future . The impact on volume growth may be visible 3QFY17 onwards, when the cash flow improves.

11. Foreign investors are shying from Indian markets. How do you explain it even after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 29 February budget sparked a rally in bonds and the rupee?

FII Inflows into debt have been quite robust over the last couple of years. FII flows into debt have been USD 34 bn (approx) since the beginning of the calendar year 2014 much more than the Equity Flows of USD 21 bn (approx). Thus the FII flows have been quite robust for the last 2-3 yrs and it is important to see the overall trend , which is quite good.

We are running a maturity of 13 to 14 years in our Quantum Dynamic Bond Fund as we expect easy liquidity and cut in repo rates in the coming months26-Jul-2016 (14:42)

Mr. Murthy Nagarajan

In an interview with Anjali Raulgaonkar from Capital Market Publishers, Murthy Nagarajan, Head-Fixed Income, Quantum AMC said, It is a global phenomenon and domestic investors are buying into the growth story of India. We are seeing buying from FII again in the debt market due to attractive spread and stable currency.

Excerpts:

What are your views on fixed income market? How have the yields moved and which direction you see them moving in near to mid-term and why? What will the key driving factors for yields?

Government bond yields have moved down after the British Exit from the European Union. Global bond yields have fallen by 30 to 40 basis points after the Brexit event. US ten year yields is now trading at 1.38% levels compared with 1.70% levels, the 30 year is trading at 2.09% vs 2.45% levels before the Brexit event. Globally, 12 trillion of developed market bonds are trading at negative yields, signifying deflationary conditions in the developed markets. Countries like Japan, Germany, Switzerland has 10 year yields trading in negative territory.

Indian bonds yield has also fallen by 10 basis points as the rate hike expectation by the Federal Reserve has been postponed to next year. The Indian rupee which has touched a low of Rs 68.20 against the dollar is now trading at Rs 67.10. The ten-year bond yields are expected to go down to 7% levels from the 7.25% prevailing as of today. The Indian monsoon is expected to be 106 % of the 10-year average which should dose food inflation. Pulses which has displayed 40 to 50% increase in prices on a year on year basis is expected to moderate in the coming months. The total production of pulses is expected to be around 20 million tons against 17 million tons of last year. The government has already initiated imports of pulses from Myanmar and Mozambique to increase supply of pulses in the domestic markets. With monsoon being normal, food inflation is expected to moderate in the coming months, which should allow RBI to achieve its CPI inflation target of 5 % in the current financial year.

With Raghuram Rajan resigning from 04 September 2016, the new RBI governor contenders are expected to be less hawkish. Real interest rates which are the difference between one-year T- bills expected CPI inflation in one year which was to be around 150 to 200 basis should move towards 100 basis points with the appointment of the new governor. This should create room for RBI to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. RBI has also re-iterated its commitment to keep liquidity in neutral zone which will induce RBI to do Open Market Purchase of Government Securities to increase liquidity in the system. RBI has to provide more liquidity due to redemption of 20 billion of FCNR B deposits and 6 billion of oil payment to IRAN. All these should bring the ten year closer to 7% levels, 100 basis points over the expected Repo rates of 6% levels.

2.What is your strategy for short term funds? What is your exposure to long term funds and why?

We are running a maturity of 13 to 14 years in our Quantum Dynamic Bond Fund as we expect easy liquidity and cut in repo rates in the coming months.

3.Kindly share your views on recent inflation movement? Where will the inflation curve move in near term? Why?

Inflation will move towards 5 % levels as food inflation will come down due to good monsoon.

4. What's your investment strategy?

Invest only in G sec and AAA PSU bonds as the corporate bonds spread are not favorable.

5.How often do you re-balance your debt allocation?

Depends on the spread between corporate bonds and G sec and the shape of the yield curve.

6.If the interest rates fall further what will be your strategy for debt funds?

We may reduce our maturity by taking profits.

7.What is your advice to the investors?

Invest in Dynamic or short term bond funds as interest rates are expect to be stable in the medium term

8.Has the inflation started to rise again? What will be the RBI's move in coming policy amidst rising CPI?

We expect CPI inflation to come down due to good monsoon, we expect RBI to sit pat on rates in the August policy.

9. When and How do you see rural consumption recovering?

With good monsoon and implementation of 7th pay commission rural consumption is expect to pick up from next calendar year onwards.

10.Foreign investors are shying from Indian markets. How do you explain it even after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 29 February budget sparked a rally in bonds and the rupee?

It is a global phenomenon and domestic investors are buying into the growth story of India. We are seeing buying from FII again in the debt market due to attractive spread and stable currency. FII have purchased around 1 billion USD of Indian debt in the last 10 days.

Currently, we are in an environment where global outlook is marred with uncertainty but there is a clear pick up in the domestic economy07-Jul-2016 (10:33)

Mr. Shiv Chanani

In an interview with Anjali Raulgaonkar from Capital Market Publishers, Shiv Chanani, Equity Fund Manager, Sundaram Mutual Fund said, Though inflation has picked up from the low, we expect it to remain range-bound on account of structural measures taken by both RBI as well as the government. Furthermore, a good monsoon should also help in keeping food inflation under check.

Excerpts:

1. The equity markets are turning volatile? What will the key driving factors for markets going ahead?

From a domestic point of view, key factors to watch out would be a) progress of monsoons; b) addressing bank NPL issue and c) continued public investment. From global perspective, one would need to monitor the progress of Brexit - its impact on global trade, global growth and eventual response of monetary authorities across the world.

2. Has the change in government proved beneficial to economy so far? How?

The new government has chosen to invest substantial time and resources in getting the systems and process right rather than embarking on massive fiscal expansion. We believe this has been a prudent move keeping in mind the fiscal constraints as also laying the foundation for a strong steady growth for the future.

3. What are the essential traits for the stocks to be in your portfolio?

Stocks are selected from a medium term horizon based on our 5S methodology. The 5S pertains to (i) Simple Business (ii) Scalable Opportunities (iii) Sound Management (iv) Sustainable competitive advantages and (v) Steady cash flows. The portfolio largely deploys buy and hold strategy allowing the investee companies to realize their full potential over the horizon.

4. How are the market positioned to face global clues? Share your views on global economies and their impact on India?

Markets have clearly overcome the initial shock of Brexit event. However, these are still early days since everyone is trying to figure out how the event will eventually play out. This adds uncertainty to the environment. However, as we look at the global scenario, clearly India is easily one of the best placed economies with GDP growth in excess of 7%, stable currency and inflation under control. Having said that, Indian economy will certainly be impacted in case there is a significant slowdown in the global growth both in terms of trade as well as investment flows.

5. How is India Inc's earnings picture getting affected by the collapse in commodities? Is it possible to scale it?

India is a net consumer of commodities. Hence, a decline in commodity prices have helped most of the companies which have been reflected in higher margins of the manufacturing sector in FY16. However, the collapse in commodities did had a collateral damage on the metals company, which is one of the largest component of bank NPLs currently.

6. Which sectors you are considering attractive from investment point of view and why and which sectors you are avoiding and why? What kind of stocks never enters your portfolio?

Currently, we are in an environment where global outlook is marred with uncertainty but there is a clear pick up in the domestic economy. Hence, at this point of time, we prefer themes which will benefit on account of domestic growth such rural, consumption, and capital investment. Themes we would like to avoid are the ones where export component would be higher as well as commodities. Stocks, which do not fit our 5S investment philosophy, will not form part of the portfolio.

7. Has the inflation started to rise again? What will be the RBI's move in coming policy amidst rising CPI?

Though inflation has picked up from the low, we expect it to remain range-bound on account of structural measures taken by both RBI as well as the government. Furthermore, a good monsoon should also help in keeping food inflation under check.

8. How often do you re-balance your equity allocation?

Portfolio allocation is a dynamic process dependent on number of variables such as market movements, company specific development, fund flows, etc.

9. Kindly share your investment strategy with us. Are you making any changes to your scheme's portfolio as we witness change in market?

As stated above, our portfolios are now more aligned with domestic plays and we are preferring to go underweight on sectors with global linkages.

10. What would you like to advice to the investors in the current scenario?

Investors should not get un-nerved by volatility in the markets as this is going to be the new norm. It is necessary to keep a medium to long term horizon while investing in equities. Given the strong outlook for Indian economy, equities, as an asset class is highly likely to fulfill its promise of wealth creation.

11. When and How do you see rural consumption recovering?

Given the prognosis of a good monsoon, we expect this to translate into money in the hands of the consumers in the second half of current fiscal year. Consequently, festive season of Dussehra and Diwali may truly reflect the upswing in rural consumption.

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