Sunday, May 15, 2011

As a system moves off east, 50's and 60's will wrap into the Ohio Valley and East Coast in areas. Some portions of the East Coast will actually stay within the 70's and possibly flirt with 80's.
The Plains will have a nice warm-up compared to the Midwest, with temperatures reaching a comfortable 70.
The Far South will bask in 80's and 90's.
The Northwest will reach 60 at the most.

The East Coast will be covered with showers and periods of rain. Florida will also be affected.
The Midwest and Plains will get a sunny day, with some clouds likely in the Midwest.
Isolated showers are possible in New Mexico and into Colorado.
The Northwest will be plagued with another storm, while the South gets a sunny day.

Upper Level Low pressure system will stay over Ohio while several shortwave troughs rotating around the low affect the Eastern States. One is over WV/VA and progressing north. Broken cloudiness is expected across VA/MD by mid morning. On current satellite imagery, it does appear that there is some opening in the cloud cover. This will slowly destabilize the atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorm development will take place in that area. However, vertical shearing and mid level lapse rates have been falling for the last several days. Sufficient CAPE values should support the storms. The main threat is locally damaging winds.

In the Northwest, cloud cover and limited low level moisture are the wild cards regarding the potential for instability and severe storms. However, on current visible satellite imagery, there is already broken cloud cover. Should there be enough low level moisture, I do expect a slight risk to be issued.
Stronger storms that develop could have hail and damaging wind potential.

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