Emerging technologies and global catastrophic risks

In the 1950s, large scale production of nuclear weapons meant that a few world leaders gained, for the first time, the ability to kill hundreds of millions of people. This was a striking milestone in a robust trend: as technology improves and the world economy grows, the price of destructive capabilities falls. In the 21st century, we expect this trend to continue. New transformative technologies hold the promise of a radically better future, but also pose catastrophic risks. Mitigating these risks, while increasing the chance these technologies enable a positive long-term future, seems likely to be the crucial challenge of this century.

There is a growing movement working to address these issues, including new research institutes at Cambridge, MIT, and Women's Alibi Alibi Women's Dress afBUcqw. Nonetheless, many of these issues remain remarkably neglected – in some cases receiving attention from only a handful of researchers. If you can find an effective way to work on these issues, we think it’s probably the most valuable thing you can do.

Problems faced by socially motivated actors

There are many problems which reduce the effectiveness of individual and collective attempts to build a better world. We think that mitigating some of these problems could be relatively cheap and would have a big multiplier effect.

Below are some more global problems we’ve reviewed. We think these problems are very pressing, but expect additional work on these areas to yield somewhat less impact than additional work on the areas listed above.

If you’re an unusually good fit for one of these areas (e.g. you already have expertise in these areas or your skills are a very good match) then working on one of them may be your best opportunity to have a big impact.

Problem areas we’ve not yet investigated

There are many global problems we have not yet investigated at length. Below we list some areas we’ve at least briefly considered. The linked articles are just interesting sources that make an argument for the area – we don’t necessarily agree with the conclusions.

Comparing global problems involves lots of uncertainty and difficult judgement calls, so people come to different conclusions about which problems are most pressing. There have been surprisingly few serious attempts to make such big picture comparisons, and there are many issues we’ve not yet investigated. So we wouldn’t be surprised if our list looks different a few years from now.

Different problems need different skills and expertise, so your ability to contribute to solving them will vary. To learn more about what’s most needed in each problem, click through to read the profiles above.

If you’re early in your career, don’t feel too constrained by the skills you already have – you can develop skills and expertise where they are most needed.

Holding all else equal, your expected impact is much higher if you work on one of the world’s most pressing problems. We think that working on one of the most pressing problems can be 100-1000x more valuable in expectation than working on many familiar social causes, where your impact is typically limited by the lack of scale, crowdedness, or the difficulty of making progress. For this reason, “focus on a top problem” is our #1 advice for people who want to make a difference with their careers.

That said, you need to weigh how pressing the issue is in general against your degree of personal fit with jobs in the area. It is sometimes higher-impact to work in a less pressing area but in a role where you will really excel. This is partly due to the direct impact you’ll have when you excel in the role, and also because excelling in any role can help you build valuable career capital. It is also important to avoid working in roles that are likely to make you unhappy or demotivated. In sum, we’d encourage you to seriously consider whether you can switch focus to one of the most pressing problems, while also flagging that there are many circumstances where it does not make sense to do so.

What next?

Read some of the profiles listed above to learn more about the problems and the career paths you can take to help address them.

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We're affiliated with the University of Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute and the Oxford Uehiro Centre for Practical Ethics.

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80,000 Hours is part of the Centre for Effective Altruism, a registered charity in England and Wales (Charity Number 1149828) and a registered 501(c)(3) Exempt Organization in the USA (EIN 47-1988398).

80,000 Hours is part of the Centre for Effective Altruism, a registered charity in England and Wales (Charity Number 1149828) and a registered 501(c)(3) Exempt Organization in the USA (EIN 47-1988398).