Greenpeace European Energy Scenario

The project aims at developing energy scenarios for the EU-25 as a whole, and for selected individual Member States (France, Poland, Hungary, Germany). The normative scenarios are developed in a back-casting process, driven by ambitious CO2-reduction targets and the phasing-out of nuclear energy throughout Europe. The project develops energy demand projections based on key macroeconomic indicators, and elaborates supply scenarios for the heat and electricity sector. The mobilisation of renewable energy technologies takes into account their respective technical potentials, actual costs, cost reduction potentials, and technology maturity. The time horizon of the scenarios is until the year 2050.

The resulting scenarios are evaluated based on their contribution to the reduction of CO2-emissions, electricity generation costs, and the total costs of electricity supply. Employment effects resulting from the introduction of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy technologies into the supply system are assessed.