Poll: McGinn, Mallahan tied (UPDATE)

A day before the election, Mike McGinn has closed Joe Mallahan’s lead in the Seattle mayor’s race and the two men are now in a statistical dead heat, a new poll shows.

The results were:

Mallahan – 45 percent.

McGinn – 43 percent.

Undecided – 12 percent.

The results of the survey of 568 likely voters are within the polls margin of error – 4.1 percent.

Just last week the UW Poll showed Mallahan leading 44 percent to 36 percent with 19 percent unsure. And the same SurveyUSA sampling two weeks ago showed Mallahan up 43-36, with 21 percent undecided.

The latest poll suggests that some undecideds are swinging toward McGinn.

UPDATE
The poll’s crosstabs have been released. They show McGinn favored by the young, the liberal and those who don’t make much money. Mallahan gets the nod from moderates, Republicans, older folks and wealthier people.

Independents were split, with each candidate taking 44 percent of their vote.

SurveyUSA says compared to their last poll, Mallahan is up two, McGinn seven. “The candidates are even among voters who have already returned a ballot. Mallahan may have a slight edge among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so before tomorrow’s deadline,” Survey USA says.

Perhaps the most notable thing from the guts of the poll is the revelation that McGinn’s backing away from his staunch viaduct tunnel opposition appears to have had no real effect. Fifty-four percent of those asked said his switch makes no differences to them, while 22 percent said they were more likely to vote for him and 22 percent said they were less likely.

McGinn underperformed in this survey before the primary. And keep in mind if the race is truly this close we may not have a winner tomorrow night, having to wait until more ballots are counted later in the week.