Quote:
IMHO, the anticyclone is now building right on top of Ernesto, while deep convection recenters the LLC below - he is undergoing somewhat rapid intensification at this time - and may easily become a hurricane very soon -

I posted that before 3 pm yesterday afternoon. An anticyclonic ridge has been forming above it for at least 14 hours. It will be a hurricane before dawn most likely.

I saw that pressure once or twice on the dropsonde reports. Since they were extrapolating the pressure I discounted the dropsonde pressure.
Now it would appear that the Flight MET and NHC have gone over the data and are using the 990mb reading.

I also saw a strange jump in aircraft altitude. Unless they are heading back to their base, they climbed over 3500 ft in 3 minutes. I hope that was't an updraft!

.UPDATE...BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FROM NHC...WILL BE MAKING MAJOR REVISIONS TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.
HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FOLLOW THE NEW FORECAST TRACK.
USED THE 26/18Z GFS AS A BACKGROUND INITIALIZATION FIELD FOR THE WINDS.
WILL BE SETTING UP THE GRIDS ON DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE MEXMOS OF 27/00Z.

I'm know a lot of people will be waking up thinking Ernesto is going to the upper gulf coast.
Not so!!
Ernesto will be affecting the entire florida Penninsula from the Keys Northward and cutting
across the state. The track will of course change but I think we know the general
areas that will be affected.

Just my observations, it almost looks as though something is pulling the storm more nortward than predicted; I know these storms don't follow straight lines, and jog around,but we should look for trends correct? The storm position, thus far, has always been to the right most model predicted location. The NHC has been shifting the CONE slightly right since yesturday, at what point do we say, wait a second, we did not forsee this influence, and pull the entire cone to the right by maybe 100 or so miles if itappears justified. Of course this puts the Florida keys, central Cuba and possibly mainland Florida Pennisula more at risk, but that is beyond our control. It just looks that eastern Jamaica,and the heart of Cuba will be much more likely to be under the gun, along with Florida. The other BIG problem there would be with this possibility, is that bigger chunks of land would be affected much sooner, and we would not have the 5 0r 6 days to prepare that the media keeps reporting. Of course, the storm would not be a Category 4 or more if this played out. Does anyon, that knows more about storms know if the above is appearing to play out, or do I have the right idea with a substantial shift of the track to the right, feel free to explain, if possible???

Quote:
Looks like I might of by accident got this thing correct before the hurricane center?

I noticed the trend also especially all day yesterday when the storm moved more to the North.
I think the NHC saw the same thing but they have to be cautious which of course
makes you realize what the influences are that made them change this track so
dramaticly from the 11pm to the 5am update.

This is going to be the major news today in Florida as word spreads and
the reality sinks in that the storm may very well be on top of West and Central
Florida by Mid Week.

As discussed by NHC, the southwesterly shear has been inducing the LLC to reform time and time again under the deepest convection, so by default, the LLC keeps ending up north/north and east of the prior location. In fact, until we get a definitive eye popping out, the LLC may recenter some more. In a nutshell, this more northeastward track that we have seen *so far* has been the result of recentering, but in the future, the sharp turn to the right now being forecast has very little to do with the previous. A digging trof is being counted on to sweep Ernesto northeast by Wed/Th.

Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is disabled

Rating:
Topic views: 70010

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center