Britain's public services can expect to suffer unprecedented cuts over the next five years despite the improving economy as the next government is forced to find further savings, a leading thinktank has warned,

A resurgence in growth during 2013 and predictions that the recovery will accelerate this year will not spare the post-2015 administration from having to make the deepest cuts since 1948 across Whitehall, local government and the welfare budget, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

But the IFS said the housing market has not entered bubble territory, even in London, and expects the economy to rebalance towards business investment and exports next year, supporting the government view that the consumer-driven recovery will fade, to be replaced by stronger support from business spending.

Evidence that a 10.4% rise in house prices last year – three times the rate of inflation – had sparked feverish demand for homes, especially in London and the south-east, was dismissed by the IFS in its annual "green budget", which analyses the state of the economy and public finances.

It said prices remained below the long-term trend and were likely to remain subdued while transactions steadily recover.

The analysis is likely to stir up controversy after George Osborne told a parliamentary committee that a shortfall in housing would continue for at least 10 years, adding to fears that prices will soon get out of control. In a period of austerity, sharply rising house prices and rents will add to household costs and prevent living standards from recovering.

The chancellor extended austerity to 2018-19 in his autumn statement after lower-than-expected growth reduced tax receipts and swelled the welfare budget. The IFS said the extension means that by the end of this financial year, 60% of planned spending cuts will be yet to come. The ambitious scale of cuts would put the UK on course to have a budget surplus by 2018-19, its first since 2000-01, but national debt would still be 76% of gross domestic product (GDP).

The IFS said that even with the scale of cuts planned, national debt would only return to pre-crisis levels in the mid-2030s.

Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, said it would be possible to achieve a budget surplus in the annual accounts in 2018, but only by imposing an extra 30% of cuts on "unprotected" areas of spending, excluding schools and health.

"Returning growth, and forecasts suggesting we should be running a budget surplus by 2018-19, should not lull us into a false sense that all is now well with the public finances," he said.

"The outstanding debt will still be very large and the scale of additional spending cuts required to hit that budget surplus remains hugely challenging, especially on top of cuts already delivered. A combination of significant additional spending pledges already made and a growing and ageing population will only add to the challenge."

The IFS said that as a result of population growth, public service spending per head would fall by 2.4% a year between 2010 and 2018.

It added that even if the overall NHS budget continues to be frozen in real terms, real age-adjusted health spending per person would be 9% lower in 2018–19 than in 2010–11 because of the rising number of over-65s.

More than two million extra 65-year-olds will qualify for the state pension in 2018 compared with 2010. A dramatic rise in the number of pensioners is due to place a greater strain on public services alongside a broader jump in the population, which is expected to rise by 3.5 million over the same period.

Osborne has given himself additional problems, following his commitment to spend more than £6bn a year after 2015–16 – implying additional cuts elsewhere.

Even with £12bn a year of additional spending cuts to social security spending, Osborne's plans would imply cuts in "unprotected" public service budgets of more than 30% since 2010, the independent thinktank said. The chancellor has ringfenced health, education and international aid spending from cuts.

Carl Emmerson, deputy director of the IFS, criticised some of the policy moves being considered by the main political parties ahead of the general election next year, including additional spending on childcare and income tax cuts.

"Despite the state of the public finances, tax cuts and spending increases are being considered by government and opposition. They seem agreed in promising additional spending on childcare despite a remarkable lack of evidence as to its effectiveness.

"They seem equally set on further cuts in income tax either through more increases in the personal allowance or the introduction of a 10p starting rate. Either could be expensive and would be poorly targeted on the low paid."

The IFS report outlined the scale of the challenge still ahead for the UK economy, despite a return to growth. GDP increased by 1.9% in 2013, and Oxford Economics, which collaborated with the IFS on the report, is forecasting growth of 2.6% in 2014.

Andrew Goodwin, senior economist at Oxford Economics, said: "The unbalanced nature of the recovery to date emphasises the need to avoid complacency.

"Nevertheless, we believe that an improving global outlook will provide the basis for the recovery to broaden out this year, by supporting export growth and giving firms the confidence to invest their large cash piles."

He said low inflation and rising wages in the second half of 2014 would improve living standards, while homeowners would continue to enjoy low interest rates until 2015.