Ok, for the last time, on a scale of 0 to 10, where is everyone now?

How bad does everyone expect y2k to be? I have not changed my oppinion from the 7 to 10 that I started with. This is the reason that I bought my shotgun... Where is everyone else, on this scale? This is the last time I will ask. Everyone, please respond... Oh, and a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you all~!
-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), December 24, 1999

Answers

I'm going for a 5-10, based on the amount of time and effort being spent on "just in case" preparations by State, Local and Federal agencies. They know more than we do. This terrorist business is a ploy. If someone comes down with dandruff in Alaska, it's a terrorist plot. Whatever can and will happen with the rollover, it won't be the rollover, it's a terrorist plot. 5 - 10 for me.

I've gone from a 10+ to hovering around a 6-7. I know a wide range of
people in diverse tech fields, and most of them (from a major alarm
company, FDIC, telco switches, oil, etc)do not anticipate a problem.
Still, as someone posted, Y2K is a microcosm of many other things
that can go wrong, worldwide, so my idea of preparation is to use
what I store. THAT WAY, the actual cost of preparation is greatly
reduced, and so is the lost sleep.

One minor prediction: Geography has been destiny in the past, &
probably will continue to be. To quote Infomagic: "Get out of the
cities. Get out of the cities. Get out of the cities. Get out of the
cities." (He really said that. Still gives me shivers.)

After carefull review and research i remain a 2-3.... Their are
still the unknown areas of terror and global interference that play a
roll in our lives . With no major systems down for more then ten days
we will make it>>> Or at least my family will... See you on the other
side of 1/1/2000.....PEACE

No, I am not a terrorist Polly. Just think that one excuse is as good as another. By no means do I discount terrorism. Seems like every government across the globe is getting ready for some really big problems. I feel our government is using one problem to cover another.

As the days march determinedly toward 01/01/00, I find myself
becoming less and less certain that I know what's coming.

Slowly the magnitude of what I've been preparing me for is coming into
focus in my mind, and I find myself recoiling in horror and fear.
Denial is flashing his seductive smile at me.....I try to ignore it by
reviewing my preps and different scenarios in my mind and pondering
the difficult questions that arise. Will all my loved ones survive?
What have I forgotten? Do I *want* to survive to face whatever life
has in store?

Can this *REALLY* happen? Nothing bad has ever happened to me
before....how will I react? Will I have the strength of character I
hope I pocess?

I find myself hungrily puruseing every *good news* article I
encounter, wanting desperately to believe it. Then experiencing
almost unreasonable anger when I *can't* believe it.....

I'm soooooo tired of every conversation Hubby & I have starting with
"IF Y2k is bad.." or "IF Y2k isn't bad.."

I JUST WANT THE @#%! WAITING TO BE OVER!!!!!

Ok, sorry....rant over.....

My *short* answer is, unfortunately, I think it will be an 8-10 by
June.

I wish you all a PEACE-full, JOY-full Christmas. May God abundantly
bless our magnificent planet.

Hey man, since the gov says to take this in a layed back position,
and to not worry. I have read them for what they are, I am preparing
for 10 or higher. I trust our gov as much as I feel I could win the
lottery jackpot, biggame.

A 10 was never possible, (barring nuclear war which is not y2k
related) anyone who says a 1 or 2 doesn't work in IT, (we're already
at a 2 and have been for some time, where have you been?) so I say a
3 to 6. A handful of terrorist type attacks, one or two major, more
power outages than most think, 5 or 6 areas is my guess, JIT problems
which in fact I think just boost the American economy. Look around
you, every other thing you own made in China, Korea, etc. Those who
can help fix problems relatively quickly, those who can't sit on
sidelines, those who think they know it all continue to criticize, I
can not fathom anyone so arrogant as not to prep at all unless you
simply can't afford it. To many terribly intelligent and experienced
poeple still say at best it's an unkown. I was really surprised
yesterday at a party how many absolute pollies had started some
preps, mostly water and 2 weeks worth of food.

IMHO, at CDC probably a 2-4, then by 2/1, probably a 5-7 due to petro
problems, then as small companies billing and scheduling impacts
large manufacturers by 3/1, JIT system fails and the trucks stop
rolling, an . . . 8 . . .9 . . . 10 . . .

It's human nature to be in denial of disaster as it approaches, but
it's not realistic.

Those of us working in IT/IS already are pretty confident of mulitple
disruptions.
The wildcards are still the embedded isues, JIT, WATER/SEWER and oil.
If we survive that all we have to worry about is the financial sector.
Now everything should be clear. 6-7 in the US 8-9 most other places.
The house of cards comes down over the next 1.5 years.

Agreed IS, what will TEOTWA(T)KI look like to a person in a $300,000
home and a salary to afford it, if a soup line is in their future?
Not the same, I'm sure, as to the people who've already been there.

O.K. So lets say it's a 3 in the U.S. but say in Japan it's a 5. And say the Japanese panic which causes a HUGE hit on their stock market. Considering that NBC will be having 24 hour coverage of global stock markets that day, how do you think Wall St. will take that, especially knowing that an economic tsunami is headed their way in just a few hours. This could easily cause what would normally be a 3 in the U.S. to a 6-8! I think one has to look beyond the actual glitches themselves and realize that the stock market is driven by 2 things, facts and/or emotions. I'll bet the emotions win out on this one!

In 8 days of normal activity without eating, you will be unable to
move without extreme effort. Even after 3 days without meals (normal
activity) you will still be in a desperate state. We need food to stay
warm, to act (move) and think clearly.

As a scientist, I have had to look at a huge amount of data. I have
also had to reject spurious or ridiculous stuff. I also have to make a
judgement call on the reliability of the source of the data. If the
source has been reliable in the past, I tend to weigh the source's
input more highly than a less reliable source's input.

Reliability seems to drop in direct proportion to the amount of "face
saving" the source of information needs to have to remain in a position
of social strength. Examples would be elected government officials,
fortune 500 companies, and social services. If someone has "nothing to
lose" in speaking the truth--and would lose little if any social
strength, then I weigh the data more heavily.

After reading about hundreds (if not thousands) of y2k related glitches
and outright failures that have already taken place, I've come up with
an analogy. Think of the current world economy as a person going
through a mosquito-infested swamp. Each bite corresponds to a
computer-related failure. When the person stops to scratch the itch or
swat at the mosquito, a hesitation of the person's move through the
swamp takes place. To a microscopic scale, the economy has slowed just
a hair, for each y2k-related problem so far encountered--but not enough
to stop it.

Now imagine about a million mosquitos landing on this person all at
once, with a few hornets and wasps thrown in. The effect on such a
person would be he would be blinded and in shock from all of the pain.
Whether the person survives depends on whether he is allergic to
mosquito bites or hornet stings. The world economy on 01/01/00 (or
2000) will take millions if not billions of such y2k computer-related
'bites.' What isn't known is if the economy is "allergic" to these
bites or not.

Based on that analogy, I say we're in for an initial 5 which probably
will ramp up to somewhere between 8 and 9 by March or April.

I think we'll start at a 4.5 (above scale, but end up at 10) You see
suppose we're lucky and we end up with "just" a level 4.5 event
(which to me means, no power for 5 days, no water and sewer for say
5-10 days, extensive problems with oil, and therefore transportation
of food, etc. for 14 days due to industrial problems as well, a
normal winter (i.e. its cold), and schools closed.

My guess is most people are going to stay at home to look after their
own (as to me any situation where there is no power, heat, water,
sewer for 5-10 days is serious to most people to make them adjust
their priorities) and there will be less people actually doing any
fixing. In this event I think the situation would escalate to a level
6-7 event (what ever that means). I think once we reach that
threshold the event will take a life of its own as cascade effects of
lack of people, failing systems cause a feed back loop to continue an
escalation upto some stead state level at 8-9.

You see most people do not realize that any dynamic system does one
of two things - self-destructs or reaches steady state. While the
system is not at either one of these situations, it will move
there. The point is will y2k give a starting point that is "over the
edge" so steady state will come with catastropic consequences as we
topple over, or will y2k give a starting point from which we can
right ourselves?

I believe that a starting point of 4 to 4.5 on the above scale is
over the edge and steady may mean we in the developed world have to
dissappear for all practical purposes. TEOTWAWKI (i.e as WE know it)
but it will go on just fine for those on farms in the third world.

Also any speculation on how much the non-mission critical systems
that have not been remediated are going to corrupt the "compliant"
ones?

I've preached a 10 to family and close friends all this time. Lost half of them.

My desperate search for anything to prove me foolish - oh, how I want to be foolish! - has turned up one tiny ray of hope for my own city's electric power, delivery of a 3 month supply of coal, in all this time. I was so excited about the coal I cried for days. But it's a small thing.

Someone on this thread said "It's human nature to be in denial of disaster as it approaches." Nope, I said, not for a minute. Nope, not me. I'm too busy keeping my wits about me. Until right now.

Today, with a week to go, I broke down. I can't face it for one more minute. It can't happen. Does saying it can't happen put me at a 1 or 2? I must look at the chart again.

Please God, let all of us be humiliated. Let all of us be wrong. I like the words "it can't happen."

Psychologically it starts next Friday. On the East Coast with gas
stations running out of gas and the Stores running out of some food.
Masses will get a little spooked and will begin to focus in on "what
if". Then once the masses are at that state we will roll into the New
Year where all of the cyber bugs will be loosed along with some
horrific show stoppers from terrorists.

And this is before there are any noticable problems. So now
everyone is jittery and a little more than nervous. On monday Stock
markets falls and people line up at banks etc. Some imbeds pop which
compounds the fear.

Then everything rolls down the hill gaining momemtum..
fear,glitches,more fear,more glithches,... who knows where the bottom
will be????

To me this means that regardless of how we get there (i.e. we start
at 10 or reach 10 within say 6-9 months) then within 3 months after
that:

a) most people in the cities will be dead (citizens, armed goons,
etc. due to lack of water, food etc.

b) the military may be around for 3 months longer assuming discipline
has not already broken down.

c) those outside the cities that did 1st world preps (i.e.
stock-piling) are dead.

So if you planned for a 10, the only way you could continue to
survive is that you have prepped to continue life without anything of
the modern world (i.e. back to living off the land). Is this what you
have done? How do you plan to protect yourselves for that long - if
you're found then your ammo will not last too long? Second have
you considered that you'll probably end up as "slaves" (since you
know how to live off the land and they don't) for the armed goons
that took over graineries, bakeries, and other large stashes of food
at the main food manufacturer's and are therefore still alive causing
havoc?

If you haven't planned for this, then am I correct that you have
really just delayed your own demise?

Geez, There's so many Newbies I've never seen,that I was wondering
where the forum regulars are. But anyway, I still think it's a 6-8 on
anyone's scale.Could be a little worse here in Bermuda, but maybe
we're the "8" and you lot are the "6". I haven't changed -really- in
the last 12-18 months.On another note,MERRY CHRISTMAS you lot,I'm
putting Y2K on the back burner for tonight at least. Have a blessed
Christmas, If His birth was what started the day we are celebrating,
then how much more I anticipate His return! All the Best!

According to the chart bw provided, we aren't as high as a 2 in any
of the 5 categories. So where does your 2 come from? I suspect this
is preparation for a strategic rearward advance. Enough such "grade
inflation" and people can claim as much as a 6 or 7 without 90% of
the population even noticing it!

Incidentally, according to that chart, I don't see anything worse
than a 3 at the most, and a 2 looks most likely.

BTW, I meant for the last time THIS year, I feel that some of the net
might be up next year, at least part of the time, so I'll ask where
everyone thinks it is at that point. We are in a 2 now, So, we can't
go any lower.

Snort! The chart has five categories, and we have not reached as high
as a 2 in any one of those categories, even momentarily. So both
GoldReal and Crono have us at an overall 2 already. And last week,
someone had us already up to FOUR!

When they have to choose between reality and their fantasies, some
people here choose to deny reality. Sometimes this is more subtle,
but even when faced with the chart itself, they STILL do it. Hey,
dodos, commitment is great, but try tempering it with, like,
kindergarten-level thought, OK? You can do it!

Put me down for a 10, although it may take until the middle of the
year to get that bad. Of course, I could be wrong. If
nothing extraordinary happens by the middle of February, I'll revise
my estimate significantly and will post it here.

* Some market adjustments (stock index down 10%) but recovered within
6 months.

Within the last 4 months, the stock market indeed had a 10%+
correction. However, it has since bounced back nicely, due to
manipulation by the Fed.

* Businesses are jolted a bit and scramble to recover; a few supply
chain issues.

Hershey's comes to mind here. There are numerous other examples.

* A few short-lived (1-3 days) problems in certain areas; air traffic
slowdown due to consumer caution.

Again, numerous examples. Just check the archives. As for air
traffic, most airlines have already announced they will not fly due
to "lack of public interest" in flying between December 31 and
January 1.

* Y2K jokes in late night talk shows trigger an inadvertent panic or
shortage. Okay, this one hasn't happened and wasn't ever going to
happen, in my opinion. J.L. and D.L. are no Johnny Carson.

At least one state government runs into serious Y2K problems. What
was the number of States that Congress recently said wouldn't be able
to provide essential services to the needy, after the rollover? Was
it 9 ?? or 17 ?? Sure, they are currently holding up. If not, we
would have heard about it. Just read about a Driver's License
problem. Isn't that State Government? Sure it is. I'd consider that a
"serious" problem.

Flint, since you pulled my string, I'm going to take this opportunity
to wish you Happy Holidays. And in that frame of mind, let me also
say, I admire you for your courage. It takes a strong constitution to
brashly stand in the path of what appears to be imminent physical
harm.

However, you have miscalculated and your position of reasoning away
the problem will soon be cut asunder, leaving you hanging in the wind
without a base to stand on. You see, you have mistakenly identified
the culprit as having human morals, when in fact, the culprit has no
morals. It won't care how many people it causes to suffer. It won't
even care if it self-destructs.

Your courage is admirable. Your belief that the tank will stop, then
turn aside and not run you over is flawed reasoning. You see, this
time, the tank is on autopilot with no human controlling it.

The term "supply chain" seems a misnomer. "Supply ring" would be more
accurate. Moreover, our society consists of not one, but a multitude
of intersecting supply rings. One break in one ring can compromise
not only that particular ring, but cascade to others, with the total
effect not necessarily bounded. Therefore, 10.

b) Flint: I respect your committed Polly status. You know what??? I
want to be WRONG about Y2K...so utterly and completely WRONG! Contrary
to what some might think, I have no interest in seeing innocent folks
freeze to death, starve to death, get shot by gangs or any of the
countless horrors anticipated in this forum. The serious difficulty
facing me presently is that I have yet to see any evidence that I
actually will be proven wrong. All we have been getting is spin and
news releases written or at least monitored by corporate lawyers.

Preped for 7+, expecting 5 - 6. Expecting a lot of resiliant, non-
quiters with backbone to step up to the plate and solve some harry
problems. USA is STILL the best place in the world! It got that way
by a lot of good people working their butts off. Things have gotten
raggity and a bit rotten the last few years, but I'm betting there
are enough heros of the old breed left in this country that we will
pull through. I'm counting on some of you here to fill these shoes!
We MUST NOT ALLOW civilization to end here and now!

I appreciate your addressing my point. I think I should reply as well
as I can, and maybe we can understand one another a little better.

[* Some market adjustments (stock index down 10%) but recovered
within 6 months.

Within the last 4 months, the stock market indeed had a 10%+
correction. However, it has since bounced back nicely, due to
manipulation by the Fed.]

Well, permit me to consider this special pleading. The market is
exactly where it was 6 months ago. It is WELL above where it was a
year ago. Yes, it has fluctuated, as always. But I don't think
fluctuations ending up above where we started is a "correction" by
any stretch of the imagination. Even if you're right and the
government has somehow "manipulated" the market, that still doesn't
constitute a correction.

[* Businesses are jolted a bit and scramble to recover; a few supply
chain issues.

Hershey's comes to mind here. There are numerous other examples.]

Yes, and there always have been. Is it unreasonable to look for an
*abnormal* rate of jolting and scrambling? Because we haven't seen
anything abnormal. I think this category refers to businesses
generally, rather than a few carefully selected businesses. You can
*always* carefully pick a few jolted and scrambling businesses. There
have been NO supply chain issues. My interpretation of the
description here is a fairly widespread pattern of scrambling, rather
than a small number of isolated cases well within normal, everyday
ranges.

[* A few short-lived (1-3 days) problems in certain areas; air
traffic slowdown due to consumer caution.

Again, numerous examples. Just check the archives. As for air
traffic, most airlines have already announced they will not fly due
to "lack of public interest" in flying between December 31 and
January 1.]

And again, aren't we looking for something *unusual* here? You could
pick any time at random over the last 50 years and find "a few short-
lived problems". You could find numerous examples. But we're talking
about problems outside the range of the ordinary. I concede airlines
have been declaring an 8-12 hour hiatus in flights, but I don't think
this really constitutes an "air traffic slowdown due to consumer
caution" so much as a prudent why-risk-it policy due to airline
caution.

[At least one state government runs into serious Y2K problems. What
was the number of States that Congress recently said wouldn't be able
to provide essential services to the needy, after the rollover? Was
it 9 ?? or 17 ?? Sure, they are currently holding up. If not, we
would have heard about it. Just read about a Driver's License
problem. Isn't that State Government? Sure it is. I'd consider that a
"serious" problem.]

Your definition of "serious" is seriously stretching things. Not one
single person has been denied driving privileges or unemployment
insurance. As for problems with essential services *after* the
rollover, I agree. Your claim was that we are at a level 2 *now*, not
after the rollover. Predicted problems with services are not a
current problem.

[Flint, since you pulled my string, I'm going to take this
opportunity to wish you Happy Holidays. And in that frame of mind,
let me also say, I admire you for your courage. It takes a strong
constitution to brashly stand in the path of what appears to be
imminent physical harm.]

I wish you happy holidays as well. However, to praise a man for what
he does not possess is to make him appear foolish. It takes no
courage to stand in the path of what I consider a figment of your
imagination.

[However, you have miscalculated and your position of reasoning away
the problem will soon be cut asunder, leaving you hanging in the wind
without a base to stand on. You see, you have mistakenly identified
the culprit as having human morals, when in fact, the culprit has no
morals. It won't care how many people it causes to suffer. It won't
even care if it self-destructs.]

No, I'm not basing my arguments on human morals (just ask Big Dog
[grin]). I'm basing them on as careful an assessment I can make of
*likely* impacts of date mishandling by computer software. And of
course, I'm well prepared to be wrong.

[Your courage is admirable. Your belief that the tank will stop, then
turn aside and not run you over is flawed reasoning. You see, this
time, the tank is on autopilot with no human controlling it.]

You are looking at a toy tank through a telescope. Y2k problems are
genuine, and will cause plenty of grief. I don't doubt that at all.
But there's no need to exaggerate the problems either. If you believe
we're at a 2 now, then you must believe we have *always* been at
least at that level. To me, this is highly misleading at best. Yes,
the world wobbles along, filled daily with whole newspapers full of
misfortune. My take is that *normal* conditions must be considered
our baseline -- a 0 on the scale.

What you're doing with your special pleading is the same thing you've
been doing to blow y2k all out of proportion -- carefully selecting
your evidence, carefully ignoring the rest, carefully assigning self-
serving interpretations to what you have selected, confusing
predictions with current realities, on and on.

I predict harder times to come for many, as a direct result of date
mishandling errors. But those times haven't started yet whatsoever,
no matter how hard you try to pretend they have. And why rush it,
it's coming soon enough.

I'm hoping for a 7 (best case) though am on record for saying 10+ if
we go into a "poisonfire" situation i.e. nuclear skirmishes, possible
nuke meltdowns, chemical and bio leakages etc.

Yes it takes a big leap of the imagination to envisage a 9 or 10, but
tell me what those folks in Hiroshima were thinking back in '45 as
they went about their business? Those folks in Pompeii? Who would
have predicted the end of the cold war (ha!) and the dismantling of
the Berlin Wall?

No - a 7 to 10+ are all TOO possible.

Fingers crossed.

"As a net is made up of a series of ties, so everything in this world
is connected by a series of ties. If anyone thinks that the mesh of a
net is an independent, isolated thing, he is mistaken..."

Buddha

"The conveniences and comforts of humanity in general will be linked
up by one mechanism, which will produce comforts and conveniences
beyond human imagination. But the smallest mistake will bring the
whole mechanism to a certain collapse. In this way the end of the
world will be brought about."

I would say 5 to 7, with possibly some elements of 8. This is pretty
much where I've been all along, except for some occasional dips to 3
or 4 along the way (when I was overwhelmed by happy face news) and
spikes up to 8 or 9 (when I happened across a run of especially
alarming news).

But I still don't have any really good sense of what's going to
happen. And still, when looking in my pantry or eyeing my stored
kerosene, I don't know whether I've over prepared or under prepared.

A year and a half ago I would have laughed if someone would have told
me that I wouldn't know any more now than I did then....but they would
have been right.

All very humbling and I'll be glad when the situation is finally
clear.

Though a newbie here, I've been a opinionated Y2K-prep presence in
several other forums - most notably
http://www.kitcomm.com/cgi-bin/comments/gold/display_short.cgi#start
and http://webm926e.ntx.net/protection/
and, again, the Y2K prep e-mail forum.

THAT SAID

I VOTE FOR 6 over the New Year's weekend,
rising to a 7 by mid-January and 8 by Jan 31st,
with 9 by Feb 29th and 10 by April-May.

Personally I'm prepared for 10+ or several years. I won't need much to
survive that long IF the bandit gangs don't come out in force.
(which may be unlikely here due to climate & topography)

Compared to our resident "homeless" person {living in an old mine shack
outside of town} I figure that shelter, food, water and warm clothing
are all that are truly necessary. But, for those now living the
comfortable life of microwaves, videogames and shopping malls, such a
come-down would be the end of civilization as they know it.