Asia

Cries of "stolen election", 337,000 spoiled ballots, a double
assassination attempt and riots in the streets... Taiwan’s presidential
election had it all!

The tense atmosphere after Saturday’s poll (20 March) reflects a vicious
power struggle between the "pan-greens" of President Chen Shui-bien’s
independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and the
"pan-blues", the former ruling Koumintang (KMT) and its smaller ally the
People First Party (PFP).

Taiwan’s 23 million inhabitants can now expect a prolonged legal wrangle
following Chen’s victory by the wafer thin margin of 50.1%. KMT
supporters, mostly older people, gathered in angry demonstrations across
the country to demand a recount or even new elections.

Military rule

Today’s KMT are the heirs of General Chiang Kai Shek’s nationalist army
which lost power in China to Mao Zedong in 1949. KMT troops fled to
Taiwan to establish a "government in exile" imposing a military
dictatorship on the island. During the 1980s the KMT regime was forced
to implement democratic reforms, but to this day retains control over
the state apparatus, in other words, the police, army and law courts. In
the run up to the last presidential election in 2000 the KMT split when
James Soong, now leader of the PFP, stood as a third "anti-corruption"
candidate against the "official" KMT candidate Lien Chan.

The opposition DPP, with Chen as its candidate, was able to "steal"
victory with 39% of the popular vote in 2000. This time around, Lien and
Soong patched up their differences standing on the same ticket as
presidential and vice presidential candidates respectively, making the
KMT fairly confident of regaining power.

But the situation changed dramatically when, the day before polling,
Chen and his vice president Anette Lu were shot at during an election
tour of the southern town of Tainan. Neither Chen nor Lu was seriously
injured, which in turn led to conspiracy theories that the shooting was
staged by the DPP itself. A DPP official admitted that the party gained
"a half million votes" as a result of the shooting. When Chen’s narrow
victory was announced the KMT immediately cried "fraud", demanding a
recount and an international investigation into the Tainan shooting.

Referendum boycott

A key question in the post-election dispute is the high number of
invalid ballots – 337,000 – 11 times greater than Chen’s margin of
victory. With the election being between two capitalist candidates, some
younger voters may have responded to an appeal from a coalition of
radical groups to register a spoilt ballot in protest at the lack of
action by either against poverty.

But a more important reason was probably the KMT’s call for a boycott of
the referendum which took place on the same day. This referendum, on the
issue of talks with China, was the first ever in Taiwan. Chen
undoubtedly sought to use it for electoral purposes: to ensure China
featured in the campaign.

The KMT waged a determined campaign for a boycott and forced the central
election commission (CEC) to retreat on several important aspects of
election procedure. Under KMT pressure the CEC decided among other
things that voters would have to join a separate queue to vote in the
referendum; that voting papers ending up in the "wrong" ballot box (i.e.
referendum papers in an election ballot box) would be "invalid"; and
that local election officials could wear "boycott" stickers or badges(!)
despite a ban on political propaganda inside these stations. Most of
these local officials are KMT sympathisers and Taiwanese politics has a
tradition of patronage whereby, for example, employers tell their
employees how to vote. In this way, KMT pressure succeeded in
emasculating the "secret" ballot. By standing in the queue for
referendum ballot papers a voter was declaring support for the DPP and
against the KMT. This explains why less than 50% took part in the
referendum, which thereby became void, despite a total turnout of 80%.
Those who took part were predominantly DPP supporters and voted for
Chen’s position.

Ethnic divisions

The struggle between "pan-greens" and "pan-blues" centres partly on
attitudes to China. The DPP put great emphasis on the issue of
independence in the campaign with the slogan "Yes to Taiwan". It’s
unclear, however, how much this benefited the party especially when, for
once, China’s government kept a low profile throughout the election
campaign.

Most Taiwanese are opposed to incorporation into China but don’t see the
advantages of a formal declaration of independence which would, to put
it mildly, anger Beijing which regards Taiwan as a renegade province.
The KMT’s more conciliatory line reflects the fear within the capitalist
class of missing out on China’s huge market. Taiwanese capitalists have
invested $100 billion in the Chinese economy. The island’s
tech-dominated economy – it produces 60% of the world’s portable
computers and LCD screens – experienced a severe downturn in 2001-02 and
is today increasingly dependent on its giant neighbour. This explains
why the Taipei stock market plummeted by 7% on the news of Chen’s
re-election.

But the two rival blocks also reflect growing animosity between
"mainlanders" who arrived with the KMT in the 1950s and the "native"
Taiwanese, descendents of Chinese immigrants who moved to the island
some centuries ago. Under the KMT dictatorship, "native" Taiwanese – who
form the electoral base of the DPP – faced severe discrimination in
respect of language, education and culture. A protracted political
crisis in the aftermath of Saturday’s election therefore runs the
multiple risks of inflaming ethnic tensions, panicking already nervous
capitalists and, eventually, possibly even drawing in China.