NFL Massey-Peabody Playoff Predictions

Wharton professor Cade Massey and Las Vegas sports analyst Rufus Peabody run 20,000 playoff simulations each week. The winner of each game is determined by the season-to-date statistics that best predict future performance, home-field advantage and chance (see Massey-Peabody.com for details). Bye weeks are also factored as an additional advantage for the four home teams: Carolina, Seattle, Denver and New England. Here are the average scores for this week’s NFL Divisional Playoffs based on these simulations.

Saturday’s games:

SEATTLE: 26.7
NEW ORLEANS: 19.9

NEW ENGLAND: 29.0
INDIANAPOLIS: 22.9

CAROLINA: 23.2
SAN FRANCISCO: 18.7

DENVER: 33.9
SAN DIEGO: 23.7

The only Divisional playoff game where Massey-Peabody has a significant disagreement with the oddsmakers is Sunday’s showdown between the visiting San Francisco 49ers and Carolina Panthers (1 p.m., Fox).

According to their 2013 regular-season rankings, the Panthers are about five points better than a league average team on a neutral field (fourth-best) compared to plus-four points for the 49ers (fifth best). Not only does Massey-Peabody award the typical home-field advantage to Carolina (about 2.5 points), but also about another point for being off last week while the 49ers were battling the Packers in frozen Green Bay. Add it all up and Massey-Peabody lists the Panthers as a 4.5-point favorite while Vegas has the 49ers favored by a point.

“The public seems to have, once again, overreacted to a small sample, and forgotten that previous, more distant weeks do in fact still matter predictively,” Peabody says. “Teams don’t magically morph into superteams when the playoffs begin. And the fact that San Francisco made the Super Bowl last year is irrelevant — just ask the Ravens.”

Like Vegas, Massey-Peabody’s model predicts relatively easy victories for the other home teams: the Seahawks, Patriots and Broncos. Denver and Seattle are neck and neck for the top spot at about nine points better than a league-average team on a neutral field, nearly three times stronger than the eighth-ranked Patriots.

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