Both can be true. Gingrich's and Romney both lead the polls with "soft support," but most very often majorities say they would refuse to vote for the other candidates.

By contrast Paul's supporters are extremely loyal, and his campaign, which is miles more professional this time, seems capable of turning them out. But a Paul win in Iowa is likely to result in a media stories like "Iowa is irrelevant" and "Will Ron Paul run in a third party?" But the fact is that Ron Paul can win Iowa, fail to win the nomination and still be relevant.

Paul has launched a movement within the Republican party, one that can continue through his close ideological allies: his son, Rand Paul, Senator Mike Lee, and Congressman Justin Amash. It is highly unlikely that he would jeopardize this by running as a spoiler candidate.

As for Gingrich and Romney, it is fully possible that both of them remain extremely weak front-runners who would have difficulty beating Obama. Gingrich may have already peaked in Iowa.

The only questions that matter: Will Gingrich fades as quickly as Herman Cain and Michelle Bachmann before him? Can Perry or Huntsman capitalize on his misfortune before the primary contests?

OBAMA AT FT. BRAGG:

Today Obama took the stage today at Ft. Bragg, North Carolina to welcome troops back from from Iraq, noting "there is something profound about the end of a war that has lasted so long." It was a beautiful frame for the commander in chief. Obama did not overemphasize a declaration of victory but instead focused on honoring the troops and the sacrifices they and their families have made.

The grandeur of the occasion is a sharp contrast to the follies of the GOP primary, and Washington's showdown over the payroll tax-cut extension.