Elie Hobeika's Legacy is his work towards eliminating Sectarianism and Confessionalism from the Lebanese Power Structure, in order to build a Modern Society in Lebanon, keen on Social Justice and Good Governance. He favored de-confessionalizing the Lebanese Government and ALL Political life, provided all participants in the democratic process commit themselves to constitutional separation of church & state...

2/14/2009

Syria, Hizbullah: Deterrence has never ever worked so far..., since Asef SHAWKAT is the Chief Architect of the assassination of Imad F. MOUGHNIEH

Israel, Hezbollah: Has deterrence worked? YES Undoubtedly, a big YES.

Syria, Hizbullah: Deterrence has never ever worked so far..., since Asef SHAWKAT is the Chief Architect of the assassination of Imad F. MOUGHNIEH in Damascus last year, Feb. 12th 2008....

So, despite the gruesome killings of 27 Hizbullah fighters by Syria's killer Ghazi Kanaan in the 80s/90s and his cruel "jogging" through the same neighborhood the very next day, to thumb Hizbullah's nose... Hizbullah never felt the need to retaliate against Ghazi Kanaan then, and it won't feel the need to do so now in this Geoplotilical

context.... "Geoplotilical" mis-spelled on puspose here....so the west and Israel can take a deep breath and go on with their usual and well known Geoplotical games.

Asef Shawkat went as far as to trigger the various fake missiles fired from South Lebanon at Israel during the Gaza war... in order to try to push the Israelis into retaliating against Hizbullah to tame them some more....

We know excatly what the odious criminal Syrian mafiosi regime is capable of.

If Hizbullah wants to create further deterrence... the address is Damascus Syria for the very big operation to come... targeting the criminal organization of the Siamese twins: The white house murder inc, and its CEO in the Levant Asef Shawkat and Maher ASSAD.As anniversary of Hezbollah commander Mughniyah's assassination looms, Israel tightens security....LOL ROTFL....

By HK

Hezbollah's leader, seen by video last month in Beirut, says it is 'necessary' to respond to commander Mughniyah's killing.

BEIRUT, Lebanon - When Imad Mughniyah, Hezbollah's top military commander, was assassinated by a car bomb in Damascus one year ago, the militant Shiite group blamed Israel – which denied involvement – and vowed revenge. But a year on, that vow remains unfulfilled, because Hizbullah know well that Asef Shawkat is the Assassin in Chief and the Architect in chief of Imad Moughniah's assassination...which was "sold" through the White House Murder INC, for plenty of good will at the upcoming tribunal ....

While Israel is taking no chances and has tightened security ahead of the Mughniyah anniversary, Israeli officials repeatedly have claimed that threats of massive retaliation to a Hezbollah revenge attack have deterred the Shiite group.

"On the one hand, Hezbollah is driven by its desire to carry out an attack as revenge for the death of Mughniyah ... but they do not want to start a war," Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, Israel's military intelligence chief, told the Israeli cabinet in a briefing two weeks ago.

Deterrence and counterdeterrence have shaped the Israeli-Arab conflict for decades. Israel relies on the threat of overwhelming military force to cow its Arab enemies. While its military superiority in the past has dealt crushing blows to Arab conventional armies, Israel has struggled to find a means of deterring a new generation of enemies, the smaller sub-state guerrilla movements exemplified by Hezbollah and Hamas.

"These guys are not intimidated by the Israelis," says Timur Goksel, former senior official with the UN peacekeeping force in south Lebanon. "They are ideologically driven and don't have the same responsibilities as a state."

That is why many analysts in Lebanon believe that Hezbollah will respond to Mr. Mughniyah's assassination with a calculated strategic blow to deter further assassinations and restore a balance of deterrence between the two foes.

"The retaliation is a strategic necessity for Hezbollah. In fact, it would be suicidal if Hezbollah did not respond," says Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a Lebanese specialist on the group.

Analysts say Hezbollah's targeting and timing of a retaliation is more dependent on its multiple, sometimes conflicting, obligations toward its Lebanese Shiite constituents, domestic political allies, ideological interests, and backers in Syria and Iran. Few doubt that a reprisal will come.

"It is necessary to respond to the killing of martyr leader ... Mughniyah to punish the killers," said Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader, in a press conference two weeks ago.

Israel's deterrent capability has suffered several blows in recent years. Hezbollah's bombs and bullets drove the Israeli army out of south Lebanon in 2000. Six years later, Israel failed to defeat Hezbollah's battle-hardened guerrillas in a month-long war. The recent three-week onslaught against Hamas in Gaza was, in part, an attempt to show it had learned the lessons of the 2006 war. But with rockets still being fired into Israel nearly a month after the cease-fire, many military analysts question whether the offensive succeeded in restoring Israel's deterrence.

A report released this month by the Center for Strategic and International Studies concluded that while the Israeli army performed more effectively in Gaza than in Lebanon, its tactical gains against Hamas were short-term and no clear strategic benefit was achieved.

"Israel does not seem to have been properly prepared for the political dimensions of the war, or to have had any clear plan and cohesive leadership for achieving conflict termination," wrote military analyst Anthony Cordesman. "Moreover, it seems to have approached the fighting, and the Arab world, from a strategic perspective that will increase instability in the region and ultimately weaken Israel's security."

Hezbollah long ago recognized the value of deterrence. A month after Israel killed Hezbollah leader Sheikh Abbas Mussawi in February 1992, a suicide bomber blew up the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, killing 29 people. While Hezbollah denied responsibility, Israel refrained from assassinating top Hezbollah figures for the next 16 years.

During Israel's occupation of south Lebanon in the 1990s, Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel whenever Israeli forces caused Lebanese civilian casualties. The tit-for-tat tactic helped impose restrictions on the Israeli army's freedom of action in south Lebanon.

After Israel withdrew from Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah staged periodic attacks against an Israeli-occupied sliver of mountainside called the Shebaa Farms. The attacks were calibrated to needle Israel without eliciting heavy reprisals that could backfire on the party's domestic standing. Similarly, Israel for six years adopted a policy of restraint, recognizing that a disproportionate response would draw rocket salvos on northern Israel.

That "balance of terror" was upset in July 2006 when Hezbollah fighters abducted two Israeli soldiers and Israel responded with war.

Since 2006, Hezbollah and Israel have tried to establish new means of deterrence. Israel has warned that it will flatten Hezbollah-supporting areas of Lebanon in the event of another war. And it remains the chief suspect in Mughniyah's killing, suggesting it has abandoned its moratorium on targeting senior Hezbollah officials.

Though Hezbollah has frozen its attacks on the Shebaa Farms, it has mounted a rearmament, recruitment, and training drive and drawn up fresh battle plans. Israeli intelligence says Hezbollah has amassed three times the number of rockets it had at the start of the 2006 war.

"The Zionists will discover that the war they had in July [2006] was a walk in the park if we compare it to what we've prepared for every new aggression," Sheikh Nasrallah warned in January.

http://lebaneseresistance.blogspot.com/

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RTC

MY FRIEND ELIE HOBEIKA, HK

MY FRIEND ELIE HOBEIKA, HK

One can see the wisdom in his very visage. The hazel eyes, glowing from sockets lined with deep suntan emotions, beam with the brilliance of a limelight. His hair, looking like spun silver, sits neatly in place upon his head. Yet, as he nods slightly, it sparkles, each strand in concert, as if to echo the exuberance of his own nature.
His nose, strong and stately, arcs proudly above the overshadowed yet undaunted mouth. The lips, bold as they are, show incredible kindness and generosity, especially when he curls them into one of his particularly boyish grins. His countenance mirrors his being and in that beautiful angel face one can see a child playing in a meadow.
His forty six years do not show themselves in his posture. He stands tall, erect; and moves with unmitigated grace. Always dressed in perfect clothes, his bright colors dazzle and shine in the Lebanon sun. What a sight this man is to behold! The experiences, heartbreaks, loves, joys, and victories of forty six years of living, all combine into one fascinating embodiment within him, a Heroes' Hero and the greatest man ever.

DCC

FREE LEBANON'S FUTURE

Bashir Gemayel and ELIE Hobeika , ARE turning in their Graves, when they see

these pathetic " New Alliances " made in Neoconville USA , Midwifed by amine

Gemayel, between the so-called LF, Joumblatt " The NEW Darling of the

Neocons" Agent in Chief, the Killer Samir Geagea, Moufti JOUZOU, with

PLO/FATH of all people, The New Hariri STOOGES of Saad... and other

unsavory characters not worth mentioning here.

WALEED JOUMBLATT, Amine Gemayel, The Batrak , Geagea the monster,

and ALL the March 14th jerks, have permanently DERAILED, AND

ELIMINATED FOR GOOD, the heavenly gatherings of good will and

NONSECTARIAN MANIFESTATIONS of a NON-SECTARIAN NATIONAL

IDENTITY, FREE FROM THE SHACKLES OF FEODAL POLITICS...

The March 14th group decapitated the NATION with their petty sectarian
formulas.
Assef Shawkat is back with a vengeance, ASSEF SHAWKAT IS A MONSTROUS
SERIAL KILLER,NOW SUPPORTED BY THE WEST AGAIN.....
HE IS TRYING TO COME BACK WITH A VENGEANCE, PRECISELY BECAUSE OF
THE FAILURES OF THE MARCH 14TH PETTY SECTARIAN POLITICS, AND NOT
AT ALL BECAUSE OF THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DIVIDE, WHO ARE NATURALLY
EXERCISING THEIR RIGHT IN A PARTICIPATORY DEMOCRACY. MARCH 14TH
GROUP HAVE FAILED MISERABLY THE TEST OF HISTORY, AND THEIR
LEGACY WILL BE IN THE GUTTER OF LEBANON'S HISTORY, FOR THEY HIJACKED
THE DREAMS AND ASPIRATIONS OF SEVERAL GENERATIONS OF VERY TALENTED
YOUNG PEOPLE, FOR THEIR PETTY SECTARIAN AND BIGOTED POLICIES.

LET'S WORK TOWARDS ELIMINATING SECTARIAN POLITICS

FREE LEBANON IS : "MESSAGE" TO THE WORLD .

WE MUST FREE LEBANON'S YOUNG GENERATIONS FROM THE FEUDAL POLITICS OF A BLIND RULING "ELITE".

Bashir Gemayel and ELIE Hobeika , ARE turning in their Graves, when they see these pathetic " New Alliances " made in Neoconville USA , Midwifed by amine Gemayel, between the so-called LF, Joumblatt " The NEW Darling of the Neocons" Agent in Chief, the criminal Killer Samir Geagea, Moufti JOUZOU, with PLO/FATH of all people, The New Hariri STOOGES of Saad Hariri and other unsavory characters not worth mentioning here.

WALEED JOUMBLATT, Amine Gemayel, The Batrak SFEIR , the criminal Geagea, hungry for more Christian blood , because he has always been a serial killer and a murderer all his adult life, including 11 years in solitary confinement for murders committed in the 80s, and many other murders still to be judged, and ALL the March 14th whacko's, have permanently DERAILED, AND ELIMINATED FOR GOOD, the amazing gatherings of good will and NONSECTARIAN MANIFESTATIONS of a NON-SECTARIAN NATIONAL IDENTITY. The March 14th group decapitated the NATION with their petty sectarian and weak formulas, built around self aggrandizement of miserable individuals, who don't have enough legs to stand on... Assef Shawkat is back with a vengeance, ASSEF SHAWKAT IS A MONSTROUS SERIAL KILLER, NOW SUPPORTED BY THE WEST AGAIN.....HE IS TRYING TO COME BACK WITH A VENGEANCE, PRECISELY BECAUSE OF THE FAILURES OF THE MARCH 14TH PETTY SECTARIAN POLITICS, AND NOT AT ALL BECAUSE OF THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DIVIDE, WHO ARE NATURALLY EXERCISING THEIR RIGHT IN A PARTICIPATORY DEMOCRACY. MARCH 14TH GROUP HAVE FAILED MISERABLY THE TEST OF HISTORY, AND THEIR LEGACY WILL BE IN THE GUTTER OF LEBANON'S HISTORY, FOR THEY HIJACKED THE DREAMS AND ASPIRATIONS OF SEVERAL GENERATIONS OF VERY TALENTED YOUNG LEBANESE PEOPLE, FOR THEIR PETTY SECTARIAN AND BIGOTED POLICIES.