NAACP HORSE RACE RESULTS: African American Influence in 2012

November 06, 2012

(WASHINGTON)— The NAACP conducted an election eve state poll on African American voters to gauge influence and key issues ahead of election results and in anticipation of 2016. The following are horse race results for Election 2012.

Due to the growing number of African American voters in many key battleground states, high Black turnout rates coupled with near universal support for Obama will be the decisive factor if President Obama wins the states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia by a small margin.

In each of these key battleground states Blacks have increased their share of all voters since the 2004 election by around two points. In Georgia, a state poised to become a competitive battleground in future years, the Black vote now stands at over 30% of all voters. If the margin for Obama is 2 points or less in any of these key states, his victory will be a direct result of the increase in Black voter registration and turnout over the past eight years.

Today the NAACP released key data from the election eve battleground poll.

The NAACP battleground poll interviewed 1,600 African American voters who have already voted, or were certain to vote in the November 6, 2012 presidential election. Interviews were conducted via telephone with live callers from November 1-5, 2012. For the 4 individual states (Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Georgia), a minimum of 400 interviews were completed to provide state-specific reliable estimates, and each state is weighted to reflect the known Census demographics for African American voters. The combined four state sample carries an overall margin of error of 2.5%, while each individual state carries a margin of error of 4.9%. Interviewing was administered and overseen by Pacific Market Research.