Dan likes Melky and the Big Unit in 2007. Personally, I think Darrell Rasner will have a much better year than his projections through ZiPS. Josh Phelps with just 5 less homers than A-Rod? Won’t that be some story – for both those players involved.

Update:Whooops! Ignore the last comment on the homers. I was looking at the doubles column by mistake. I guess that I should not read stat projections so late at night!

Comments on 2007 ZiPS Projections

Dan projects A-Rod to hit 32 homers, while Phelps will only hit 21 homers, a difference of 11 homers.
But surprising since I expect A-Rod to be around 40 homers (assuming his head is semi-right), and Phelps in the 15-18 range.
Wow, it sure would be great if Melky puts up those optimistic numbers – say, hit .314 with 12 homers in 300 at-bats.

I disagree with the lowball on homers for A-Rod, Giambi, and Matsui as a matter of fact. I also believe A-Rod will hit around 40 homers. Giambi hit 37 home runs last season, and 32 the year before. In fact, every season that he’s been even half-healthy he’s put up 32 or more. Matsui hit 31 two years ago, and 23 the following year. His pace last season was about 25 home runs for a full 162. If he’s healthy this season, I find it virtually impossible that he’d top out at 18. That’s silly. 18 homers for Matsui and 21 for Phelps is just dumb.

I looked at it one more time. It seems the Matsui homers came from a projection of 133 games. That’s the problem. The guy didn’t miss a game for 10 years and broke his wrist last season. The data is skewed to figure 110 missed games last season due to a fluke injury. I expect he’ll play 150+ this year and hit 25-30 homers.

The best is Sal Fasano. We’d be lucky if we got more than 1 home run, nevermind 11. And Sal Fasano shouldnt be in the major leagues, nevermind playing 75 games. Though, the only one stupid enough to play a Sal Fasano in that many games is Joe.

~~~Does anyone know if Aaron Small is a free agent. It says on Wikipedia that the Smallini is a minor league free agent. I remember he cleared waivers and was sent down to AAA.

Over at Replacement Level Yankees SG posted his 2007 projections using CHONE.
What got my attention was that it also projected the Big Unit doing really well next year and Philip Hughes projected as our 2nd best starter.

He has Pettitte, Wang and Cox getting murdered.
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Acutally, I think the projection for Pettitte is pretty accurate, and really, I expected his ERA to be worse than that–the other numbers (IP, HR, etc) seem to be on par with his career and making a jump from the NL to the AL East.

Only once in Andy’s career has he ever made 30 starts and not thrown 200 innings. He’s gone over 200 innings eight times in his career.

Why does a guy as economical as Wang suddenly not throw 200 innings again?

Why does J.B. Cox’s brilliant AA, A and college numbers translate into a hideous 4.71 ERA, more hits than innings pitched, and a 26/34 BB/K? This year in AA Cox had a 1.75 ERA, gave up only 54 hits in 77 innings, and had a 24/60 BB/K. They only hit .196 off of him, and lefties hit .110.

So how does consistently dominating numbers translate into getting whacked in the majors? If this is simply based on data, and not opinion, it doesn’t make any sense.

Offense was way down in the minors this year – the Eastern League’s ERA was safely below 4 this year. Translations from AA for relievers are very harsh and there’s no way Cox can keep a .239 BABIP as he goes up the ladder. Honestly, the Yankees kept him in AA too long.

What about comparing projections for 2006 with actual results? Is that data available?

Chone Smith evaluated 2006 projections in his blog at http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/. To sum up, the correlations he got among players with 500 at-bats or 100 innings pitched are: