Cruz nomination will test political notions

U.S. Senator candidate Ted Cruz, left, and his general consultant Jason Johnson look at early returns in his war room at the JW Marriott in the Galleria as during his runoff election against rival Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Kay Bailey Hutchison Tuesday, July 31, 2012, in Houston.

Photo By Johnny Hanson/Houston Chronicle

U.S. Senator candidate Ted Cruz, left, and his general consultant Jason Johnson look at early returns in his war room at the JW Marriott in the Galleria during his runoff election against rival Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Kay Bailey Hutchison Tuesday, July 31, 2012, in Houston.

Photo By Johnny Hanson/Houston Chronicle

U.S. Senator candidate Ted Cruz thanks his wife while delivering his winning speech to a cheerful crowd as Ted Cruz defeated Republican rival, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in a runoff election for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Kay Bailey Hutchison Tuesday, July 31, 2012, in Houston.

Photo By Johnny Hanson/Houston Chronicle

Holding his daughter Caroline, U.S. Senator candidate Ted Cruz and and his wife, Heidi, holding their daughter, Catherine, appear before a cheerful crowd as Ted Cruz defeated Republican rival, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in a runoff election for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Kay Bailey Hutchison Tuesday, July 31, 2012, in Houston.

Photo By Johnny Hanson/Houston Chronicle

U.S. Senator candidate Ted Cruz and speaks to a cheerful crowd as Ted Cruz defeated Republican rival, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in a runoff election for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Kay Bailey Hutchison Tuesday, July 31, 2012, in Houston.

Photo By AP

Ted Cruz, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, holds his daughter, Caroline, 4, as his wife, Heidi Cruz holds their daughter, Catherine, 1, while he speaks to the media before voting during the first day of early voting at the Metropolitan Multi-Service Center, in Houston, Monday, July 23, 2012.

Ted Cruz, as the GOP nominee to be Texas' next U.S. senator, will test a couple of notions.

The first is that Latinos will automatically gravitate toward a Latino candidate, even a Republican, though they traditionally vote Democrat. That test will come in November.

The second is whether the GOP “establishment” that backed Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst will rue the day it ever made those welcoming cooing noises at tea partiers.

The first notion first.

Conventional wisdom suggests that whoever won the GOP nomination would, ipso facto, be the next junior senator for Texas. If you've been reading the political coverage, this line has appeared as many times as Cruz supporters have inexplicably called Dewhurst a, gasp, moderate: A Democrat hasn't won a statewide office in Texas since 1994.

Cruz doesn't need Latino votes to win, the argument goes. He will face former Democratic Texas state lawmaker Paul Sadler in the general election.

But here's another conventional wisdom: The Latino vote will grow inexorably — in Texas faster than most states and faster than the national rate. And it will be a consequential number even if Latinos continue to lag others in voter registration.

The party that captures Latino hearts and minds will achieve longevity in office of dynastic proportions. And if conservative Cruz attracts sizable Latino votes in November, this will demonstrate that the GOP is credibly in this hunt.

If Democrats retain the White House this year and Cruz wins in November as expected, he instantly becomes a talked about veep choice in 2016.

Latinos, of course, have befuddled Republicans for a while. Consider the recurring themes about Latinos: strong family values; patriotic, with traditions of military service; highly Catholic, culturally if not always of the Mass-every-Sunday variety; and with growing numbers of evangelical Christians as well.

“Y'all should be with us,” Republicans utter in frustration.

Note to Republicans: Stop being mean and you would be more effective. And, yes, a lot of us view harsh rhetoric about immigrants as mean.

Let's see if Cruz, a Cuban American, grasps that essential truth. The primary has not been encouraging. Cruz apparently feels “amnesty” is something of a dirty word, accusing Dewhurst of embracing it. He has characterized Dewhurst generally as soft on illegal immigration.

And this is what Cruz said about health care: “I don't think it's government's job to find health care for people.”

Will Latinos flock to Cruz?

I have serious doubts that Latinos are the closet conservatives Republicans believe they are.

Now, that second notion.

Name a top statewide elected official in Texas who endorsed and didn't back Dewhurst? Even Gov. Rick Perry did. So, does anyone credibly believe that Mr. States Rights and phooey to Medicaid expansion would back a moderate?

But for the life of me, I discern only shades of difference between Texas' GOP “establishment” and these ultraconservatives.

At least there were differences on abortion in that District 25 state Senate race in which the alleged real conservative, Donna Campbell, bested incumbent Jeff Wentworth on Tuesday evening. But I can't see much policy difference between Cruz and Dewhurst.

The Texas GOP “establishment” will surely adjust. But the truth is that this isn't going to require much adjustment at all.