Third-party Madness

Powell Should Stop The Foolish Flirtation, Go With Gop

September 12, 1995|By William Safire, New York Times

WASHINGTON — Forty-three years ago, New York broadcaster John R. ''Tex'' McCrary was certain that Dwight Eisenhower, then commanding Allied forces in Europe, could be prevailed upon to run for president on the Republican ticket.

Tex appointed me to be chief of staff of a Madison Square Garden rally to demonstrate to the skeptical general that a groundswell of enthusiasm awaited his candidacy.

I wasn't a Republican or anything. I was barely old enough to vote. But I wasn't about to tell my boss his whole notion was nutty, and that every pro knew that the nomination belonged to Sen. Robert Taft of Ohio.

So we staged the rally and jammed the joint; Tex had the aviatrix Jackie Cochran fly a kinescope recording of the ''I like Ike'' hoopla over to the general in Paris; Ike then let Tex, Sherman Adams and Henry Cabot Lodge lead the way to Eisenhower's win in New Hampshire.

For the past two years, octogenarian McCrary has been telling me the same scenario would be played out, starring Gen. Colin Powell. He has helped organize a new generation of amateurs, and coolly endured barbs from the likes of his former mentee deriding his ''Time Warner candidate.''

That's not because Powell has been coy (he has a fortune to make first) or mushmouthed on issues (the mark of a pro). The unserious aura around the Powell non-candidacy comes from his foolish flirtation with the idea of a third party.

We heard that same maundering middleism earlier this year from Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey. He announced his retirement from the Senate with a shot at the ''system'' and a hint that he would be available for re-entry to politics as an independent.

All dribble, no shoot: If Bradley really wanted to make a difference, he would take on President Whatsisname in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire. But that takes fire in the belly, which Bill Clinton has and his Democratic detractors do not.

In the same way, Colin Powell's complaint that neither party ''fits me comfortably'' feeds the illusion many voters have that some knight on a white charger will rescue us from ravishment by the two-party system.

Wake up: Ain't gonna be no third party in 1996 with the remotest chance of winning. Ross Perot can finance himself and get federal matching money, but that populist popinjay is stuck with himself as a losing candidate: He cannot lawfully hand over his millions of dollars to back somebody else.

Forget all these book-selling fantasies about independent candidacies; it's hot-stove league talk. If Powell is going to run, he will have to drop the mantle of Great Equivocator and run as a Republican, and proud to be one, in a series of Republican primaries - which calls for a formal announcement (with much pre-leakage) no later than this Thanksgiving.

That's what Tex is convinced will happen. I'm not sure Powell has the stomach for the hard shots coming: from ''the man who covered up the My Lai massacre'' to ''the man who had to be dragged into stopping Saddam Hussein'' to ''the man who let the Republican Guard escape because he didn't want to seem cruel on TV.'' That rough-and-tumble cannot be answered with soldierly calls for civility by Candidate Feelgood.

But let's assume Tex is right and Powell takes the plunge. He would brush off Iowa as establishment-rigged and concentrate on a blitz of New Hampshire, a state whose primary voters often like mavericks. And who is to say - in a field of eight, perhaps Gingrich-enriched - an enigmatic-charismatic general backed by all three newsmagazines and November Democrats cannot get 25 percent? That may be enough to win.

If Powell makes it there - a big if - he could still be beaten by Dole in New York, Gramm in Texas and Wilson in California. But his campaign would surely enliven the party, focusing attention on the GOP and its proposals next spring.

Even if the reluctant warrior falls short, his political blooding on the primary trail would prepare him for selection as a running mate loyal to the top of the ticket.

Contrariwise, if Powell indulges in more irresponsible third-party patter - or if he waits on the Republican sidelines to be anointed by a presidential nominee who may not trust his political judgment - he will miss the tide of fortune, and spend the rest of his life in the shallows and miseries of more appointments by higher-ups.