This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what they thought would most influence the direction of stock prices in 2018. Almost one out of three respondents (31%) said taxes and/or corporate earnings. Many of these respondents expect the tax cuts to lead to higher profit growth. Approximately 29% said politics, domestically or internationally. More than 8% of all respondents mentioned President Trump by name, some favorably and some unfavorably. The Federal Reserve, interest rates and monetary policy were named by 16% of respondents. Some respondents listed more than one factor they expect to influence the market.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

“Corporate profits and the new tax law.”

“Tax cuts will help. Only an unexpected geopolitical event will cause a downturn.”

“Fed activity around interest rates.”

“Growth of worldwide economies is important, but politics with Trump could also produce a dramatic change.”