Forums

Next big Tesla announcement is around June 20: Musk

Next big Tesla announcement is around June 20: Musk

Submitted by riceuguy on May 29, 2013

Per Elon at All Things D...after tomorrow's, around June 20 is next (presumably the "fifth" in the trilogy)

justineet |
June 17, 2013

I am gonna spill the Top SECRET guys...your Teslas are already equipped with Supercapacitor Pack!!! However due to current state of suprecapcitor development, the cost of each capacitor extremely expensive. Therefore Tesla has limited the Max charge capacity to 40miles. So as Elon said, the answer to Super-Duper-Charging faster than you could fill a gas tank is really under your nose. All you need to do is to turn on a switch on your 17" screen to operationalize your supercapcitor pack!!! Once you do that, you can charge 40 miles, not in minutes, but in seconds from anywhere...from your own home or any public charging station!!

Bank on it.....this top secret info is sourced from an army of Tesla supercapacitor engineers :))

satyrias |
June 17, 2013

" However due to current state of suprecapcitor development, the cost of each capacitor extremely expensive. Therefore Tesla has limited the Max charge capacity to 40miles"

That is not logical. If there is a Supercapcitor already in the car now, then why do you talk about the cost as a reason for 40 miles limitation?

justineet |
June 17, 2013

@satyrias...the maximum capacity of the installed supercapcitor pack is 40 miles due to cost related to engineering issues.... :))

satyrias |
June 17, 2013

That means, all the Supercapacitor packs have to be replaced in all cars if there is one, if that is the announcement...

hsadler |
June 17, 2013

All right guys. I'm tellin ya....

Buy stock in Keurig!!!

The donut maker will be next year's improvement.

elguapo |
June 17, 2013

I believe the car has been torn apart by several people, so while I think @justineet is kidding anyway, if there was a material pie e of hardware on the car, I think someone would have found it or heard of it by now. I agree with others that an SC announcement seems odd considering that was the last announcement - unless they're tied together and there's an announcement after this. Did Elon say 6/20 was the final one?

Tough here. I think battery swapping is not a good business model but also think a new supercharger technology would be odd too.

I love my car as is, so as long as they aren't announcing they're taking something away, I will be happy.

DouglasR |
June 17, 2013

Are we there yet?

justineet |
June 17, 2013

@satyriasno, no need for any replacement; with current supercapcitor technology a maximum of 40miles per charge is what is feasible for the foreseeable future according to my top secret sources:)) The 40miles Uber-fast-charging Supercapacitor pack works perfectly for your daily city driving as well as for lightening-speed miles extension during long distance travel. All you need to do for your regular city driving is to charge your supercapcitor pack in seconds, hop your little toshie in ur Tesla, and your are on your way!! If you believe you will travel more than 40 miles in a given day, you just need to have a little more juice in your main Lithium Battery pack which will take only minutes to charge even at your home, not hours. For long distance travel if you only need to extend your range by 40miles or less to reach your destination, no need to charge or supercharge your main lithium battery pack even for 20 minutes!! Just charge your supercapcitor pack at warp speed even before you blink your eyes and off you go to your destination......wherever that may be...............gradma's house..............relatives' residents :))

Captain_Zap |
June 17, 2013

I'm hungry!

Where are the doughnuts?

michael1800 |
June 17, 2013

My brian hurts after that.

Brian H |
June 17, 2013

michole;
Yore brain is failing, too.

mdemetri |
June 17, 2013

Does anyone know the energy density of the best currently available supercapicitors? My quick look suggests a maximum of 10wh/kg. As 40 miles of range requires ~12kwh @ 300wh/mile, the 'hidden' supercapicitor (@10wh/kg) would weigh ~1200kg!!! Unless there is at least an order of magnitude improvement in energy density, I cannot see how current Tesla's could have a hidden supercapcitor of 1200kg!!! Can someone confirm or deny my calculations?

bb0tin |
June 17, 2013

I've done a google search and looked at the events links on the Tesla website, but cannot find a link to a webcast of the event on the 20th. Does anyone have a link, if it even exists? I will be getting up at 3am to watch it if I can.

justineet |
June 17, 2013

@mdemetri.....this is not your standard supercapcitor according to my top secret informant:)) It's a brand new propriety micro-supercapacitor breakthrough developed by Tesla with a very well known micro-chip company my top secret source has declined to reveal the name. But I have a very good guess which chip company it is. This new development which will be revealed soon is a highly guarded technological breakthrough in the field of supercapacitor batteries! According to my Top secret source within Tesla's Army of supercapcitor engineers, the issue of energy density and high rate of self-discharge has been resolved for the most part. Though not 100% up to par with lithium batteries, the energy density and self-discharge rate of this breakthtough are very close to Lithum battery's! The biggest issue remaining is cost.......due to the extremely pricy materials used, one can compare the Lithuim batteries with copper electrical wiring, and the supercapacitor breakthrough to electric wiring with Gold! It's therefore financially feasable to use this breakthrough only in a limited capacity -- for limited range -- until the day comes for full adoption with the discovery of affordable substitute materials :))

mdemetri |
June 17, 2013

@justineet

That sounds wonderful; my original thought for a secondary battery in the frunk was a supercapicitor; but energy density was the problem; therefore I evolved to a metal-air secondary battery given its much higher energy density. But if Tesla has had a major breakthrough in supercapicitor energy density and self discharge, then this makes a huge amount of sense. If you are right, then this is an incredible improvement in Model S and both car sales and the stock are going to take off like a space X rocket.

I bet they will not start building a battery swap network soon, too costly (on top of other challenges). It will probably be for reassuring Model S buyers for the future of their purchase and some free advertising as the press may go nuts about this.

bp |
June 18, 2013

While a quick battery swap opens up interesting possibilities, depending upon what Tesla decides to do with this capability, a larger issue is battery life - minimum range for the battery pack.

The battery warranty covers defects, but doesn't provide specific protection from loss of range as the battery pack ages.

Exchanging for another battery pack could increase the risk owners would get a pack that might have less range due to harder use (frequent max charges) by other owners.

Tesla should address battery life anxiety by amending the battery warranty to provide a minimum range for the battery pack. This would not only provide protection for the car's original battery pack, but also for any battery packs that were swapped (if that service is ever provided).

Tesla had earlier mentioned a battery replacement plan - would it make more sense to have battery a swap plan with a minimum range guarantee, rather than a one-time replacement for the battery pack?

Related to this topic is the new variable charge feature in the 4.5 software update. Does charging below 90% provide better protection of battery life? Or is the variable charging being provided for another reason, such as allowing users to cut off charging from public (more expensive) chargers early when less than a full charge is needed? Tesla should amend the recommended charging practice in the owners manual to explain when the new variable charging feature should be used.

Hopefully this week's announcement will be more than just demonstrating a battery pack swap - and will address at least some of the battery-related concerns.

gibbs |
June 18, 2013

If they're doing battery pack swaps, I wonder what the price point's going to be. Elon's already said that he would like to bake the price in the car.

I really would be sad if the announcement included a price increase. Especially, since I'm less than a month away from a down payment.

Amped |
June 18, 2013

Will be interesting to hear about all of the purposes for swapping.
Hope they have born on dates!

@bp, battery is happiest between 20-80%

rtb |
June 18, 2013

Just a thought--I am not sure if the normal car buyer will be Tesla's intended market for battery swaps. Think about taxis, private cars, and car sharing services where the car is almost in continual use around a central hub/dispatch office. The taxi company can build and support the infrastructure for battery swap. Plus, fuel costs are largest (guessing here) variable cost for these operations. A supercharger doesn't make sense for taxi company given that every minute the car is off the road, it isn't making money. On the flip side, Tesla will have opened a huge new segment for car sales and free advertising.

uselesslogin |
June 18, 2013

Guys,

If I am going to buy a Tesla Gen III with only a 200-mile range the battery swap will be important to me. 200 miles is really 170 miles EPA range probably and while that is more than enough for daily driving when I go on a longer trip knowing I can make a pit stop after 2 hours and then maybe supercharge for free after another 2 hours sounds just fine. Having to stop every 2 hours for 15 minutes just sounds annoying. So, for me this is awesome. And for me it means I will keep my ICE until I can buy a Gen III. My guess is this will be rolled out at a somewhat slower pace to satisfy current shareholders. I'm a little sad the stock is not down more today. I was hoping the battery swap had so much negativity around it that it would present a good buying opportunity.

Bryan M. |
June 18, 2013

Remember the story of some transportation project in Vegas where the company placed an order for 100 Teslas. Don't know all the details but it sounds like a good place to start testing out how practical the swap would be. Swap makes sense for a transportation company(taxi/ car service) i guess, would make more sense for individual owner use if they introduced a 400-500 mile pack as well that you could rent because its to expensive to buy at this time. When you return from your trip you'd get your original battery back. Also you would have to reserve to rent in advance as these 400-500 mile packs would be in limited supply.

jk2014 |
June 18, 2013

Not sure about battery swap economics for private owner, but does make sense to bring down battery price a lot faster since they will have to double, triple, quadruple battery production. Big orders out of Panasonic will help negotiating power when contract comes up probably as genIII prototypes start coming out. Also good for solarcity because of need for batteries in pv energy storage.

martijn |
June 18, 2013

Does someone have a link to see the demonstration thursday?

martijn |
June 18, 2013

For the live demo of course

mrspaghetti |
June 18, 2013

My understanding is that they are not streaming it live, just posting it online after the fact.

kback |
June 18, 2013

Elon's tweet said the demo would occur live at the Tesla design studio in Hawthorne at 8PM, and then video would be posted to Tesla website around 9:30 PM.

Bryan M. |
June 18, 2013

looking at the tweets again it doesn't say they will live stream the swap demo. It says live for those attending. Post of video after the fact. Makes me wonder if they dont want to stream it live maybe its still a work in progress. They have time botch it a few times for those attending then post the editted version of it working lol

DouglasR |
June 18, 2013

So the real question is not whether they can swap a battery in a couple of minutes, but what they intend to do with that technology. Setting up swap stations around the country -- competing with the superchargers for long distance travel -- doesn't seem like an efficient strategy, particularly given the cost of swapping equipment and batteries. Swapping for fleets of cars (taxis, etc.) might make more sense, but it is not something that existing owners will benefit from.

I am thinking that battery swapping will have something to do with the battery replacement option. Imagine that $12,000 will get you a new battery whenever your battery range drops below a certain level. That might spur people to purchase the option. If every service center had swapping capability, the program could be expanded to cover swaps while traveling or swaps for apartment dwellers who cannot charge at home, but that would have to be another expensive option.

Do people think Elon will do more than demonstrate the swap? Will he announce some sort of program to go with it?

hillcountryfun |
June 18, 2013

DouglasR - I agree. It will be interesting to see the tech behind the swap but the real question is what problem is he trying to solve and how will it be packaged going forward.

mdemetri |
June 18, 2013

If Tesla does not announce some sort of program to go with main pack swapping, it will be a big disappointment. No way am I swapping my main pack unless I can get more range (ie 120kwh) or longevity (swap after range degraded over time). It just makes no sense otherwise. Elon said the annoucement would make current owners happy, which IMO requires some sort of program.

However, as I posted on another thread, I am still hanging on to the idea of a secondary range pack swap demonstration. Call me crazy but Elon tweeted this in response to a comment about the founder of Better Place: "Shai actually got the idea from a visit to Tesla. The idea is obvious (many things allow battery swap), but the technology is not." What technology is Elon referring to? The robot that does the swap or (my hope) the technology for a secondary range pack. Also, main pack swapping does not jive well with the "right under your nose" tweet, which implies it is something already in current cars.

vouteb |
June 18, 2013

my vote:
additional extended range battery in frunk 'swappable'.

Not the main battery swap, owned as new by owners.

Kal-el |
June 18, 2013

vouteb +1

hillcountryfun |
June 18, 2013

Alright, here's another crazy idea:

A portable pack swap delivery vehicle. Dispatched from a service center and providing a service across the country, this large truck like vehicle allows the Model S to drive into the back of the truck where a robot exchanges the main pack for a freshly charged one. There will be a fee for use but is available to all Model S/X/Gen3 owners.

Available in 2014...this is too much fun.

martijn |
June 18, 2013

+ the swappable frunk battery can also be supercharged; so you can charge both at the same time.
10 minut charge & go

Bryan M. |
June 18, 2013

people have said there is nothing in the frunk to support a battery being added.

maxr |
June 18, 2013

For me the ideal swap solution would be:

First, a swappable frunk battery as vouteb suggested.

but in fact it is not really "swappable" but "extra" as by default you don't have a battery in the frunk.

You go to a service center to get this extra battery when planning a road trip. This is "right under your nose".

What could be possible is that this battery works together with the fixed littium battery as an hybrid. The first world e-e hybrid (electric - electric). What would be fantastic is if this extra battery is not standard but a metal-air battery (which can last very long and need very long time to recharge, hence need to be swapped not supercharged).
Metal-air combined with litium could be the winning combination to drive your car 500 miles.

Plus don't forget that TESLA could get additional ZEV credits (maybe extra 10k per car?) for every car equiped with swappable technology. That would make the company more financially viable which is good for its customers.

This is just a wild guess.

max

AtlantaCourier |
June 18, 2013

This mornings tweet did not say Thursday's battery swap is the tech that will allow you to recharge in less time than it takes to fill a tank of gas - just that a battery swap would be demonstrated at some point during the night, probably around 8:00, right after the REAL demonstration is finished.

The invite said the thing starts at 7:30, giving him time to demonstrate the new 500 mile battery being supercharged to range of 200+ miles in 10 minutes.

He'll probably go ahead and charge it for a while longer and then around 8:00, he'll tell everyone to calm down, so he can start whatever swap demonstration he's talking about.

jandkw |
June 18, 2013

Ever heard of Silex's Hypercharging Station? I wonder if Tesla endorses this technology, do we still need the battery swap?

I think they're just going to do the demonstration with no real concrete plans. It's just meant to get people off the fence. Elon's point will be "hey, we can do it if we want to, so you should buy now and you can always get a different/more efficient/new pack in the future, we may have a swapping program in the future for long range travel, etc.". I would be shocked if they announce any real plans.

martijn |
June 18, 2013

@elonmusk: Battery pack swap works with all Tesla Model S cars, past and present. It was always there.

Brian H |
June 18, 2013

A Fatal Flaw in the frunk battery concept has been pointed out: would require complete new safety qualification/testing. Bummer.

rtb |
June 18, 2013

I could be wrong, but I just don't see an extended battery travel pack as likely. A stock Tesla battery (even the 40kwh) covers 90-95% of daily privately owned car driving. Swapping the main battery for a 500 mile travel pack is a huge expense for a 1% problem. I do not think it is a "Tesla" answer.

up north |
June 18, 2013

new battery pack being installed in all new cars after sept. all currant owners up to oct. 1st can swap for new battery pack or keep the old one and have free supergarging for the life of the car?

EcLectric |
June 18, 2013

I'm not saying this is it, but a metal-air battery hybrid makes sense. Metal-air batteries have high energy density, but low power density: they can store lots of energy in a given volume/weight, but they accept (charge) and release (discharge) that energy slowly. There is no electric car with a metal-air battery because the car wouldn't have any power (it would be very slow) and swapping would be the only reasonably fast way to 'charge'.

If you had a swappable metal-air battery in a Model S, you could obtain lots of energy quickly by swapping, and this energy would then be released slowly to the lithium-ion battery while driving. The lithium-ion battery provides the power while the metal-air battery provides extra energy for increased range.