Last year's first-round busts look to rebound in 2014

One of the primary reasons for the rise in popularity of the Zero-RB strategy in fantasy drafts this year is the high bust rate for first-round running backs in 2013.

In the first round of last year’s drafts, 11 of the top 12 picks were running backs (with Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson the only exception). But fantasy owners who drafted five of those 11 running backs with their top pick were severely disappointed.

— Just two seasons ago, Foster was one of the top players in fantasy football — rushing for 1,424 yards and 15 touchdowns (giving him a total of 41 rushing TDs in a three-year span). But he missed almost 10 full games in 2013 due to a ruptured disc in his back.

Foster, 28, is still at an age where he can be a productive lead back — and with Ben Tate no longer around, he shouldn’t have to worry much about Ronnie Brown, Jonathan Grimes or Alfred Blue stealing touches. As long as quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick can give the Texans a credible passing attack, Foster (current ADP: 20) has a chance to produce first-round numbers.

— Martin, 25, suffered a shoulder injury midway through last season and finished with only 456 yards and one touchdown — far below the 1,454 yards and 11 TDs he had as a rookie. He’s looked fully recovered this preseason, and although Bobby Rainey and Mike James looked good at times last year, Martin (current ADP: 22) is entrenched as the Buccaneers’ starter.

This week’s acquisition of All-Pro offensive guard Logan Mankins from the New England Patriots should only help Martin’s numbers. The Bucs passing game should be much better than it was in 2013 with Josh McCown taking over at quarterback and first-round draft pick Mike Evans joining veteran Vincent Jackson as the starting wideouts.

— Spiller, 27, did rush for 933 yards a year ago, but he was in and out of the lineup frequently because of a nagging ankle injury. His big-play ability was severely curtailed by the injury and he only scored two touchdowns. Backfield mate Fred Jackson, meanwhile, scored nine times.

The Bills added Bryce Brown in the offseason, but Spiller (current ADP: 36) is still their most explosive back — and is six years younger than Jackson.

— Rice, 27, is coming off the worst season of his career and will be suspended for the first two games of the regular season. He rushed for just 660 yards and four touchdowns in 2013, averaging a paltry 3.1 yards per carry. Be careful drafting him at his current ADP of 52.

— Richardson, 23, struggled after being traded from Cleveland to Indianapolis. He’ll split time with Ahmad Bradshaw this season, but he’s never averaged better than 3.6 yards per carry in his three-year career. His ADP is currently 64.

Fantasy football takeaway

Foster, Martin and Spiller look to be the best bets to rebound in 2014. All three could produce stats comparable to running backs drafted in the late first round, but they figure to be available several picks — maybe even an entire round — later.

Rice and Richardson profile more as RB2 material at best. If you can get either as your No. 3, consider it a decent investment.

What this means in daily fantasy

For Week 1, Foster is the most expensive of the group in FantasyScore, with a salary of $7,800 at home against the Washington Redskins.

Spiller ($7,100) is next at Chicago, while Martin ($6,600) is at home against a tough Carolina defense.

Richardson ($6,100) looks like a poor value on the road against an improved Denver squad.