Workers are not switching jobs more often

Published: 02 Nov 2017

EVERYBODY knows—or at least thinks he knows—that a millennial with one job must be after a new one. Today’s youngsters are thought to have little loyalty towards their employers and to be prone to “job-hop”. Millennials (ie, those born after about 1982) are indeed more likely to switch jobs than their older colleagues. But that is more a result of how old they are than of the era they were born in. In America at least, average job tenures have barely changed in recent decades.

Data from America’s Bureau of Labour Statistics show workers aged 25 and over now spend a median of 5.1 years with their employers, slightly more than in 1983 (see chart). Job tenure has declined for the lower end of that age group, but only slightly. Men between the ages of 25 and 34 now spend a median of 2.9 years with each employer, down from 3.2 years in 1983.

It is middle-aged men whose relationship with their employers has changed most dramatically. Partly because of a collapse in the number of semi-skilled jobs and the decline of labour unions, the median job tenure for men aged 45-54 in America has fallen from 12.8 years in 1983 to 8.4. That decline has been offset by women staying longer in their jobs and higher retirement ages, which is why the overall numbers have barely changed.

American workers are also now less likely to move home to find new work (see article). Fewer than 12% moved home last year, down from 20% in the 1950s. This pattern is true of younger workers, too: only a fifth of Americans between the ages of 25 and 35 moved last year; for past generations the fraction was closer to a quarter.

One place where millennials probably are switching jobs more often is western Europe. Data from the OECD, a think-tank, show that since 1992 in each of France, Germany, Italy and Spain, the average job tenure for workers has increased overall. But it has shortened for younger workers. However, it is far from clear that this is by the young workers’ choice. Labour-market restrictions in Europe have forced a growing share of workers into temporary “gigs”. Over half of workers aged 15 to 24 in those four countries are on fixed-term contracts.

Data on Britain, which has looser labour-market regulations than continental Europe, tell a more complicated tale. OECD statistics show that average job tenures have fallen for young Brits. But research from the Resolution Foundation, another think-tank, finds that millennials are actually less likely to leave jobs voluntarily than the previous generation. Britons are also moving home less often. Between 2001 and 2016, the share of workers moving home to change jobs fell from around 0.7% to 0.5%. The number of workers doing so for work in Britain has risen again in recent years, but is still below its 2001 peak.

Some workers are indeed hopping from startup to startup every six months, or working as quasi-freelancers for Uber. But they are the exceptions. A drastic increase in job-switching rates would probably require a correspondingly drastic increase in labour demand. Those who fret that millennials are fickle may have too rosy a view of the labour market.

This article appeared in the Finance and economics section of the print edition under the headline "Staying put"