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GAINS AND SETBACKS -- In the first of his two highly anticipated Hill hearings this week, the top NATO commander in Afghanistan will tell HASC members this morning that recent gains in Afghanistan are real and sustainable, but that there will continue to be setbacks in the days to come. The AP obtained his prepared remarks. http://bit.ly/GzGtNa

THE REAL ACTION will come during the question-answer session, when both sides of the aisle will push Allen to make statements that advance their political goals. McKeon, for his part, plans to ask the general whether or not he’s been given enough troops, time and weapons to get the job done, a HASC staffer tells Morning Defense.

The staffer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that with rumors swirling about the possibility of an accelerated drawdown, McKeon will also want to know whether or not Obama has made any specific commitments to the general regarding the current exit strategy.

POLITICO OP-ED -- “Afghanistan War’s exit strategy,” by Rep. Buck McKeon: “Whatever soapbox a four-star Marine general can command is nothing compared with that of the presidency. When it comes to Afghanistan, the presidential bully pulpit is vacant; the teleprompter is dark and one of the most rhetorical presidencies in U.S. history is silent as it looks to the exits in Afghanistan.”

“Ninety-one thousand Americans are deployed under President Obama’s orders to surge forces to the region. Despite ample evidence to the contrary, some Americans are convinced that strategy is a failure. Such perceptions undercut our troops, undercut their commanders and embolden the enemies who target them every day.” http://politi.co/GzGT76

ALLEN WEST’S TAKE? The HASC Republican tells us he’s anxious to find out whether Allen’s testimony confirms or denies his “perceived assessments” about the mission in Afghanistan.

“I think there’s [been] a little bit of a loss of a moral high ground” -- because of the Quran burnings and the shooting spree that left 16 Afghan civilians dead -- “and we have to be able to stand strong and resilient and not allow the enemy, the Taliban or whomever, radical Islamists, to use that as a launching pad.”

WELCOME TO MORNING DEFENSE -- Keep the tips, feedback and questions coming toawright@politico.com and follow us on Twitter @morningdefense

TRIVIA TIME -- Today’s question comes to us from Margaret Swink of the Ploughshares Fund: What is the name of the smallest nuclear weapon ever deployed by the U.S. military?

MORNING DEFENSE SCOOP -- Former Obama national security adviser Gen. James Jones is joining the Call of Duty Endowment as co-chair. The endowment, which supports groups that help veterans find jobs, is set to announce the news this morning.

MD SCOOPLET -- Take an exclusive look at an illustration from the upcoming military-themed comic book series “Soldier of Fortune Presents: Stealth.” The series, set to debut in June, will chronicle a covert special ops team that carries out missions too risky for other military units. http://bit.ly/GAhdcJ

THE HILL TODAY --

-- 9:30 a.m.: SASC meets in Dirksen G50 to discuss the Air Force’s budget with Donley and Schwartz.

-- 10 a.m.: HASC meets in Rayburn 2118 to discuss Afghanistan with John Allen and James Miller, acting undersecretary of defense for policy.

-- 2 p.m.: HASC’s Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities meets in Rayburn 2212 to discuss the budget for IT and cyber ops with Teresa Takai, the Pentagon’s chief information officer; Gen. Keith Alexander, head of U.S. Cyber Command; and Madelyn Creedon, assistant secretary of defense for global strategic affairs.

-- 3 p.m.: HASC’s Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces meets in Rayburn 2118 to discuss tactical aviation programs with Frank Kendall, acting undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology and logistics; David Van Buren, acting assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition; and others.

-- 3 p.m.: SASC’s Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities meets in Russell 232A to discuss cybersecurity research with Regina Dugan, director of DARPA; Zachary Lemnios, assistant secretary of defense for research and engineering; and others.

PAUL RYAN IS SET TO UNVEIL HIS BUDGET PLAN THIS MORNING, and POLITICO’s David Rogers brings us the preview: “House Republicans hope to move quickly this spring with a $261 billion deficit-reduction package to forestall automatic spending cuts next January that would fall heavily on defense.”

“At this stage, the goal is not to tackle the entire $1.2 trillion in automatic cuts ordered by the Budget Control Act last summer. Instead the focus is on the first round of almost $110 billion in 2013, half of which -- about $54.7 billion -- would come from national defense spending.”

“Food stamps, farm subsidies, federal workers, and health-care programs are all likely targets.” Rogers has the full breakdown here. http://politi.co/GzFWZi

NIGHT RAIDS -- The Wall Street Journal last night reported that the Obama administration “is offering to cede some control over nighttime missions into Afghan village homes” and might agree to a requirement that coalition forces get warrants before carrying out the raids. The issue has been a key sticking point in negotiations for a long-term security pact between the United States and Afghanistan, with Karzai demanding an end to the practice. Here’s the story, for WSJ subscribers. http://on.wsj.com/GA83cL

A senior defense official confirmed the development for Morning Defense and argued that it should be viewed as a mark of progress. “If you think about it, this is a sign that the Afghans will continue to take on more and more responsibility,” said the official, who requested anonymity. “No one should think that this potential agreement is in response to recent events in Afghanistan. Night operations have been of concern to certain Afghan officials, notably President Karzai, for some time.”

SPEED READ --

-- The Washington Post, “Staff Sgt. Robert Bales was found liable in financial fraud,” by Mary Pat Flaherty, Krissah Thompson and Julie Tate: “Bales’s decision to join the Army also came at a pivotal point in his pre-military career -- a career as a stock trader that appears to have ended months after he was accused of engaging in financial fraud while handling the retirement account of an elderly client in Ohio, according to financial records. An arbitrator later ordered Bales and the owner of the firm that employed him to pay $1.4 million -- about half for compensation and half in punitive damages -- for taking part in “fraud” and “unauthorized trading.”http://wapo.st/GADbHJ

The New York Times, “U.S. war game sees perils of Israeli strike against Iran,” by Mark Mazzetti and Thom Shanker: “A classified war simulation held this month to assess the repercussions of an Israeli attack on Iran forecasts that the strike would lead to a wider regional war, which could draw in the United States and leave hundreds of Americans dead, according to American officials.” http://nyti.ms/FQoguB

-- DEFCON Hill, “Senators to Pentagon: No troop cuts until Congress gets a say in budget,” by Jeremy Herb: “Senate Armed Services Chairman Carl Levin (D-Mich.) and ranking member John McCain (R-Ariz.) wrote a letter to Defense Secretary Leon Panetta Monday urging the Pentagon not to reduce forces until the congressional committees have authorized the 2013 Defense budget.” http://bit.ly/FPUxkc

-- McClatchy Newspapers, “Army threatens to fire whistleblower for talking to McClatchy,” by Marisa Taylor: “Earlier this month, the U.S. Army Criminal Investigation Laboratory warned its firearms branch chief, Donald Mikko, in a memo of its plans to fire him, in part for talking to a McClatchy reporter. … McClatchy has written more than a dozen stories about the lab since last March, which included details of the misconduct of two former analysts who made serious errors during DNA and firearms testing.” http://bit.ly/GztTve

-- Air Force Times, “Air Force confirms Metzger kidnapped in 2006,” by Jeff Schogol: “The Air Force has confirmed that a major who went missing in Kyrgyzstan six years ago was kidnapped, debunking an online smear campaign that claimed she went AWOL. … Metzger was able to escape by stabbing one of her captors with a stick she had sharpened into a shank and then locking him in the room where she was held.”http://bit.ly/zPzE5o

FROM THE INBOX -- Reader Greg Caires comments on yesterday’s top tweet:

“I don't know what’s worse -- that people don't know the Iraq war is over, or that they don’t know that the Afghan war is still going on...”

TRIVIA ANSWER -- The Davy Crockett. Its warhead “weighed just 51 pounds and was the smallest and lightest fission bomb (implosion type) ever deployed by the United States,” according to a Brookings report. More than 2,000 were produced between 1956 and 1963. See a photo here. http://bit.ly/13H0Mi