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10 Sep 2014

Armstrong decides the election

The mainstream medias propaganda about the election being a foregone conclusion couldn't have been more apparent than in today's NZ Herald.

Not only do some journalists in that rag delude themselves about what the polls are really saying, they're even claiming that the election has already happened and National has won, which I'm sure is news to the rest of us.

One such article by the irrepressible John Armstrong appeared in today's print edition:

Greens need to compromise to get ahead

In the aftermath of this election - and regardless of the outcome - one political party is going to have to do some very hard thinking about where it goes from here.

This election was supposed to be the one which saw the Greens finally shed the mantle of Opposition and become the minor partner in a coalition Government with Labour.

The Greens have instead found themselves unwilling hostages to Labour's misfortune. They are now staring at another three years in Opposition.

There's nothing new about right wing propagandists trying to convince people that the election is a foregone conclusion. It's one of the oldest tricks in the book and a reason we have such a low turnout.

What they're of course ignoring is the latest Roy Morgan poll that clearly shows Winston Peters as kingmaker. With a predicted eight MPs, Winston can press hard for NZ First policy no matter whom he's negotiating with.

Here's the MMP seat calculator results based on the last Roy Morgan polling (with electoral seats adjusted slightly for the Party percentage shift):

I've been very generous and theoretically given the Maori party, United Future and Act a seat each. However on the current shift of Party percentages it's unlikely they will all make it in.

Even with the support of Peter Dunne, Te Ururoa Flavell and David Seymour, National cannot retain power. They must have Winston Peters' support, and I'm predicting the wily old fox is going to say no!

That means on current polling Labour could form a minority Government with NZ First and the Green party of Aotearoa. They could form a majority government if they included the support of the Internet Mana party MPs as well.