In original terms, the February balance on goods and services was a deficit of $118m, a decrease of $1,665m on the deficit in January. Goods and services credits rose $803m (7%), and goods and services debits fell $862m (7%).

In the eight months to February, exports of non-rural and other goods were down $6.3b (10%) and rural goods were down $3.0b (17%) on the corresponding period in 2002-03.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Revisions to Historical Data

In original terms, revisions since the previous issue have decreased the deficit on goods and services for the seven months to January 2004 by $409m. The revision to the January 2004 estimate was a decrease on the deficit of $104m.

The revisions are the result of incorporating the latest available data relating to merchandise trade and the quarterly Survey of International Trade in Services.

CAUTIONARY NOTE

The tables in this publication are presented on two bases. Tables 1-6 contain estimates of Australia's international trade in goods and services which have been adjusted for coverage, valuation and timing to a balance of payments basis. Tables 7-10 contain estimates of merchandise exports and imports based on Australian Customs Service records. Paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes provides an explanation of the difference between these bases.

Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Artur Andrysiak on Canberra 02 6252 6792.

Analysis and comments

BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in February 2004 was a deficit of $1,891m, a decrease of $9m on the deficit in January.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in February 2004 was a deficit of $1,716m, a decrease of $154m on the deficit in January.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $14m in February to $11,775m.

In original terms, non-rural and other goods rose $161m (3%) to $6,263m.

<> Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

adjustments made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account the length of the month and different trading day patterns in January and February, which contributed about 4 percentage points to the fall

other goods, down $227m (27%), compared with an average January to February fall of 3% over the previous three years

machinery, up $114m (28%), compared with an average January to February rise of 50% over the previous three years

other mineral fuels, down $108m (15%), compared with an average January to February fall of 9% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:

metals (excluding gold), up $69m (13%), in contrast to an average January to February fall of 8% over the previous three years

other manufactures, up $243m (29%), compared with an average January to February rise of 22% over the previous three years.

Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS

In trend terms, services credits rose $11m to $2,940m.

Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $35m (1%) to $2,936m.

Contributing to this rise were travel services, up $80m (5%) seasonally adjusted.

Partly offsetting this effect were:

other services, down $23m (3%)

passenger and other transportation services, down $22m (4%).

IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $5m in February to $13,666m.

Imports of intermediate and other goods, in original terms, fell $23m (1%) to $4,460m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

fuels and lubricants, up $127m (17%), in contrast to an average decrease between January and February of 17% over the previous three years

other merchandise goods, up $150m (231%), in contrast to an average decrease between January and February of 3% over the previous three years

iron and steel, down $15m (9%), compared with an average January to February fall of 21% over the previous three years.

Offsetting these effects were:

other goods, down $112m (24%), in contrast to an average January to February rise of 3% over the previous three years

organic and inorganic chemicals, down $47m (18%), compared with an average January to February fall of 11% over the previous three years

food and beverages mainly for industry, down $18m (30%), compared with an average January to February fall of 2% over the last three years.

Imports of Services

SERVICES DEBITS

In trend terms, services debits fell $4m to $2,851m.

Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $7m to $2,826m mainly due to increased passenger and other transportation services, up $31m (8%). This was partly offset by reduced travel services, down $24m (2%).

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