Calland says after fights about alleged fraud, as well as procedure and voting cards, the number of voting delegates has dropped.

“And 380 branches had not held branch general meetings as of about a week ago and what seems to have happened is 405 delegates have been in effect excluded from the electoral college because their branches did not have branch general meetings in time.”

He says it does seem that of those excluded from voting are supporters of front-runner Dlamini Zuma.

“So we are talking about 400 voting delegates here, less than we originally expected. So instead of 5,200, it's around 4,700. I think that shift is going to hurt Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma more than Cyril Ramaphosa.”

But Calland adds that Mpumalanga’s hidden unity vote could sway things in favour of Dlamini Zuma.