Obama Bounce Larger Than It Seems

So how much better off politically is Barack Obama after Osama bin Laden was finally found and killed? Our IBOPE Zogby interactive poll shows a modest bounce in both his job approval and the number saying he deserves re-election.

While the impact of taking out bin Laden may not be definitive in deciding Obama’s re-election, it may mark a pivot point in the perceptions of independent voters and the ability of Republicans to deflate voter confidence in the President on national security, and by extension most issues.

Our May 5 poll taken in the days after the successful Navy Seal attack on bin Laden’s hideaway showed Obama’s job approval at 46%. Ten days earlier, a similar poll recorded a low point for the year of 41%. That same April 25 poll showed 37% saying Obama deserved re-election. Now, that number is 42%.

Both results fall short of the majority a candidate might like, but any positive movement within an electorate so sour on all politicians and discouraged about the future is notable, and may be lasting.

It is very important to understand that we are a polarized nation. Under Obama, the U.S. accomplishment of killing the leader of Al Qaeda should be of great importance to Republicans. But our poll found only one-half of Republican voters giving Obama any credit for the action (8% gave him a great deal and 42% gave him some credit.) This inability to acknowledge anything positive about Obama is similar to the attitudes Democratic voters had for George W. Bush and what they feel now toward Congressional Republicans.

The ideology of partisan Republicans and Democrats is so strong it impacts perceptions of reality. Our polling routinely finds Republicans more pessimistic about their personal finances than are Democrats. There doesn’t seem to be any empirical reason for this. The most likely conclusion is that the question about personal finances is asked along with political questions, and both Republican and Democratic partisans answer in a political context.

Any movement among swing voters that could have permanence is very important. So we really need to look at how independent voters are reacting to Obama and the death of bin Laden. Here is some of what independents said in our poll:

· 69% gave Obama either a great deal (38%) or some (31%) credit for the action.

· 46% said killing bin Laden made the U.S. safer in the long term (47% said it made no difference and 6% said we would be less safe.)

· 40% are more confident in the ability of the Obama Administration to deal with national security issues (53% said their confidence level had not changed.)

· 42% believe bin Laden’s death gives the U.S. more reason to begin withdrawal from Afghanistan (50% said it either made no difference or was not a reason to begin withdrawal.) Should Obama actually begin withdrawal over the summer, this result should give him political comfort with the decision.

These results have more significance when you consider that not all independents are true swing voters. Our surveys find that 25% of independents identify as conservatives, and therefore usually vote for Republicans; and 13% are liberals and usual Democratic voters. The opinions of both conservative and liberal independents about Obama are less likely to be influenced by events, even something as big as the death of bin Laden. So when more than 40% of all independents feel safer and more confident, you know that the impact on swing voters is large.

These swing voters are less engaged than partisans, and more likely to be influenced by questions about a President’s character. If Obama has helped define himself as someone who can be trusted with national security and willing to take bold actions in the nation’s defense, it becomes much more difficult to portray him as weak and “not like the rest of us.”

I don’t expect the partisan media or propagandists of either party to declare a truce just because Osama bin Laden is dead. But I do believe you will see both the Republican Congressional leadership and actual Presidential candidates become more cautious in their characterizations of Obama.

That may be the best measure of Obama’s political gain from ending the life of Osama bin Laden.