From the files of “Oh, my God, Grey is really stupid,” I predicted Shaun Marcum would start this year’s All-Star game. It’s hyperbole, people! No, it’s man love. No, it’s I’ve lost my mind for Shaun Marcum and there’s no one that can stop me. He’s on all of my fantasy teams this year. I gave him the 2011 projections of 15-8/3.35/1.15/185. That’s Cy Young shizz. If I didn’t think I’d get committed by giving him an ERA under 3, I would’ve. I didn’t love him this much when he was on the Blue Jays. I saw a guy who was just returning from surgery, a guy who doesn’t throw very hard and a guy who throws a lot of fly balls. So what changed and why is he now a 2011 fantasy baseball sleeper?

Because of his move to the NL. This isn’t brain surgery. He was a 3.75 ERA pitcher, give or take, in the AL East. He has to shave at least a quarter of a run off his ERA moving to the NL Central. He struck out 7.60 batters per nine last year. In the NL Central that has to go up to around 8. In his first year back from Tommy John surgery, when most pitchers can’t find their control, he had a BB/9 under 2. That’s a beautiful thing. With all the hyperbole aside that I used to try and light a fire under your ass so you would draft Marcum, I’ll be honest. He might just be around a top 20 starter this year since he’s not going to strikeout 250 guys or something. But he’s being drafted around the 33rd SP off the board. He’s currently going right around my fellow heartthrobs, Daniel Hudson and Brandon Morrow. I kinda want to make love to Marcum in the middle of a cotton candy machine while Morrow and Hudson watch. Is that weird? No, of course not! Marcum’s coming at a decent enough bargain to make him a definite sleeper. I love you, Shaun. Now have my sticky babies! And, you, stop looking at me weird!

I was originally thinking my 2nd and 3rd round picks (31 and 34 overall) should be Uggla and Dunn since we have a MI position that needs to be filled as well as SS and 2nd and the league is large (16 team) so I can get solid production from my middle infield….

However if Holliday, Upton, or Heyward are available to do I take them instead of Uggla or Dunn. If yes, should I take Dunn or Uggla with pick 3?

I’m relatively new to the site but I don’t have to look at the glossary to guess what that means. I think the sonovabenched phenomenon isn’t necessarily the best argument against manufacturing your own platoon. There’s a principal studied in psychology and economics that basically says it hurts a lot more to get screwed than it feels good to win. I think the sonovabenched phenomenon is just feeling the days where you miss out more than enjoying the days where you get it right or where it’s basically even. Odds say that if you played the guys roughly half the time each over the course of the season you should be relatively close to getting half each of their numbers. You would think that because you could look at matchups etc. you might do a little better even.

That being said, I never really see anybody using a platoon strategy and with so many people playing fantasy, it’s pretty efficient out there. If it was good strategy, people would be doing it. I just can’t figure out logically why it wouldn’t work accept that the extra roster spot outweighs the potential advantages.

I’ve been seeing the same things in my Yahoo mocks where i can grab Hudson or Gio a few rounds later than Marcum. He seems to be going as a number 2 where as the other guys from his tier are number threes. What do you think Grey?

@OaktownSteve: It might just feel like you play Snyder and he goes 0-for-4 while Rajai gets 4 steals on your bench then you switch them the next day and your Snyder then sonavabenches you, but it still hurts. Also, it’s just a waste of a roster spot in most leagues. You could have a MR playing every day and getting vulture wins and helping your ratios instead of a bench bat. In deeper leagues, I could see it because there’s less waiver wire guys and you need to max hitting stats on days Snyder or Rajai is benched on their team.

At the small expense it takes to get Marcum this year, there’s reason to get sticky.

Grey…..Liriano is getting some bad press lately. Had a shoulder issue already at ST and now there’s an article out on how the Twins aren’t happy with him because he’s been lazy in the offseason and didn’t start throwing until just a few weeks ago. Any reason for concern here?

Hey Grey, how about you shut your mouth. I have been let know that some people in my league read this sight. I managed to target Marcum late last year and draft him in the second to last round. Now because of this I will have to move him up to mid rounder. Why don’t you write an Ian Kennedy, sleeper pick next? Or perhaps a Brandon Webb one? Thanks for nothing Grey. Jerk Face!

@Grey: 12 team, 5 x 5 roto draft question. We are allowed two keepers each (mine are Tulo and Cargo). I have the 4th pick in the draft. Longoria is being kept, and due to the way the draft worked out and who teams are keeping, top 3 could possibly go Pujols/Miggy/Votto (in any order). All of that being said, do I:

Marcum went #123 in my recent draft on Yahoo, so it was a little too early for me to bite since I got Scherzer a few picks before he went. He definitely makes a solid #3 though, no question there.

When it comes to H2H I really like to concentrate on offense, and I usually like to run a bunch of RPs out there since there’s no IP cap, this way I can pick up saves, some vulture wins, some k’s and keep the ERA and WHIP reasonable.

So pitching (to me) is much less important in H2H. Actually, ratio’s in general (AVG, ERA, WHIP) are less important since they basically get reset every week unlike roto. And, since Wins are so hard to predict, basically I’m left with trying to get K’s and Saves from my pitchers, anything else is just gravy. Does that sound like a reasonable plan, or is it just me? What do you say Grey, any tips for H2H vs. Roto, or is that a future post?

Anyway, I wanted to see what you guys thought about how this draft turned out for me, so here it is (12 Team H2H, I had the 10th pick):

I’ve had a man-crush on Marcum for years. He did me solid in all three leagues I had him in last year. My only problem with the column is that too many people will know about him coming into this year’s drafts and he won’t be “my” sleeper any more. I expect a great year from him in the NL this year.

I agree: A post that discusses some managing strategies specific to H2H leagues would be very helpful. If it could also include a short list of players who you would tend to avoid in H2H leagues for whatever reason, that would be particular interesting. Thanks!

Sorry, I had posted this question at the bottom of your previous entry. I have the first pick overall and i made a trade for the fifth pick (i gave up my 2nd and 3rd round pick – also got his 8th round) and barring something unforeskin i will draft Pujols at 1 and having spoken to the people drafting 2-4 i anticipate both longoria and tulo to be available at five. which way should i go given that i dont pick again until the end of the fourth round? thanks

I have the 3rd pick and the guy with the 5th picks wants to move up to get Tulo at 3. I want Miggy and I know Miggy will be available at 5. so I don’t mind swapping but the other guy is willing to give me a token pick swap later in the draft. What is reasonable to ask given that it’s only a 2 slot swap in the first round? Perhaps his 18th round pick for my 20th? This is 20 team, 28 rounds.

@Mark: The other reality of the situation is there’s at least 50 players you wouldn’t draft if you follow my rankings. Lincecum is 17th at ESPN, on mine he’s in the 40s. So you remove Lincecum because you would never draft him and Marcum moves up one, do that enough times and he moves far up.

Yeah. Some people take rankings too seriously… I’ll never draft a guy like Mauer or McCann anywhere close to where they go in real drafts (12 teams; 1 catcher league), but if they fell to some moron round way later, then I would consider it. But since nobody else will ever let them fall to a moron round, I’ll never have the opportunity to do it (so I won’t). Kind of like a David Wright. Good player, don’t get me wrong, but I’ll never take him if I’ve got a chance to get a potential 40-bomb guy like Fielder…

Marcum’s xFIP last year was 3.90. Remember that xFIP is normalized for luck, defense and home run rate, so his stats wouldn’t have looked much different pitching for another team. Marcum is a good fantasy starter, but he didn’t become an ace because he’s in the National League now.

I usually spend my 1st 3 picks on a stud 1B, a top 3B, and Kemp/Holliday or whichever is the best OF available. A good example is the last mock I did Longoria/Howard/Kemp. Mind you, these are 10 team mocks.

It always seems to come down to Cruz, Phillips, Heyward or Rollins in round 4 and I turn into a dizzy bitch trying to decide. What do you guys think?

@Bill—V
@12 Monkeys—assuming 5 OF then Heyward—2b doesn’t get thin in a 10 team league

LOVE this post!!!! The day I trade away one of my best 2010 keepers he finally gets his due press. I knew it was coming but a deal had to be done. Dealt said Marcum + stuff ‘that didn’t matter to me’ for player #16 in your rankings minus $19.

Great post! Validated one of my best keepers in years. Keep up the good work.