When Iran completed a successful test run of its nuclear power station in the city of Bushehr on February 25, it raised the level of concern in some Western countries, particularly in Israel. Outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert even went as far as issuing a threat, which many believe was directed at Iran: “We are a strong country, a very strong country, and we have at our disposal [military] capacities, the intensity of which are difficult to imagine,” Olmert told public radio.

Technically, Bushehr is not a real danger to Israel. In fact, it is no danger at all. Bushehr is a nuclear power plant just like any other. None of the nuclear fuel it will use or low-enriched uranium will come from Iran. It will all be supplied by Russia. Furthermore, all the spent fuel, some of which can be used for weapons purposes, will be taken away by Russia. The Russian government and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will count every drop of nuclear fuel entering and leaving Iran. Therefore Iran cannot use any of the equipment at Bushehr for its military nuclear program.

By raising such a hue and cry over Bushehr, the Israeli government is distracting the world’s attention from the real danger: the Iranian uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. That is where the danger lies and that is where the U.S. and Israel need to focus their attention. By crying “foul” every time Iran embarks on any nuclear activity, no matter how harmless (such as the case in Bushehr), both Israel and the U.S. could damage their credibility. They could also wear out the patience of the international community. After America’s inability to find WMDs in Iraq, Israel will have to be very careful how it portrays the Iranian threat. Overdoing it could damage its legitimate claims, and could turn it in to the boy who cried wolf too many times.

If Israel wants to legitimately direct its anger, it should be towards Moscow. It is the Russian government that has been hampering international efforts to impose tough sanctions against the Iranian government and its illegal enrichment activities in Natanz. For years, Moscow used its contract with the Iranians for Bushehr as leverage, in order to pressure Iran to not antagonize the West. Moscow used every excuse, and in some cases outright lies, to drag its feet over the completion of Bushehr. The Russians even went as far as citing lack of funds from Iran as an excuse. In reality, everyone knows that the Iranians had paid. However, Tehran couldn’t do much. It was dependent on Russia for this power plant, and all it could do was sit and watch the scheduled date for the completion of the plant slip by 10 years.

However, now that Russia has agreed to complete the contract, Moscow and the West have lost an important leveraging mechanism over Tehran. It will now be even more difficult to pressure Iran to halt its enrichment activities at Natanz. The only danger Bushehr poses is a political one. And this will boost Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s position greatly. As presidential elections near, he could say that under his presidency, Natanz expanded and the West could not do much about it. This will come at a great time for the Iranian president. With the economy’s performance worsening every year, advances in the nuclear program will be a useful distraction.

One important question to ask is: why did Russia go ahead and complete Bushehr? Why now? These days, the Russian economy is suffering greatly, due to the falling price of oil. Furthermore, its once powerful weapons industry is facing ruin. According to a recent Reuters report, “One third of Russia’s weapons makers are on the verge of bankruptcy.” Iran is a very important market, and the Russians know that Iran could soon be negotiating with the U.S. Should Iran and the West mend fences and improve their relations, the Iranians could take revenge over Russia’s feet dragging in Bushehr by signing massive economic deals with the West. This could be a major blow to Russia’s economy and is probably why Russia decided to improve its relations with Tehran now rather than after the negotiations between Iran and the U.S., as it could be too late by then.

In the bid to garner international support for dealing with Iran’s nuclear program, the loss of Russian support could have a negative impact. However, this is the new reality that President Obama has to deal with. This is not the first warning shot by Moscow. The recent closure of the U.S. base in Kyrgyzstan was seen as a Moscow-backed effort against Washington which will impact U.S. efforts in Afghanistan. It won’t be the last either. More than ever, the EU and the U.S. will have to apply their credibility and economic power to withstand the competition from Moscow.

oh god… who has given you the AUTHORITY to be the Iran expert on PJM? The nuclear power plant in Bushehr is part of the bigger picture i.e the entire nuclear project of the Iranian theocracy. I notice that most of your posts are absolutely bogus here on PJM and distracting. There’s nothing the west can do about the Russia’s relation vis a vis Iran. But the Americans or Israelis can destroy the Iranian regime’s nuclear program once and for all. (Or at least delay it considerably). The fact that you spout such nonsense here is amazing. I thought PJM provided a platform for real people with real issues. Again, I believe PJM is naive to give people like you a paltform to spread misinformation around. Look at this statement:
“Technically, Bushehr is not a real danger to Israel. In fact, it is no danger at all. Bushehr is a nuclear power plant just like any other. None of the nuclear fuel it will use or low-enriched uranium will come from Iran. It will all be supplied by Russia. Furthermore, all the spent fuel, some of which can be used for weapons purposes, will be taken away by Russia. The Russian government and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will count every drop of nuclear fuel entering and leaving Iran. Therefore Iran cannot use any of the equipment at Bushehr for its military nuclear program.”
Are you inside Mullahs’ brains? You contradict your own statement right there. Yes the fuel spent there can be transfered to Natanz and be used in weapons. Why would I trust you or the Iranian regime about the transfer of spent fuel to Russia? No one believes Russians either. The sad issue is that people like you who claim to be Iran expert know basically nothing about Iran. Too sad that PJM has trusted with your bogus claims.
What a watse!

Technically, Bushehr is not a real danger to Israel. — Meir Javedanfar

‘Technically’, Meir is right. I doubt if the plant is going to be dropped in the middle of Tel Aviv. However, I have to wonder if some of the by-products of the plant might be dropped in the middle of Tel Aviv.

Don’t you love these obfuscating, half-truth liars?

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. I’m reminded of my sister, who is married to an Iranian expat. Talking to her about Iran is like talking to a stone wall that throws rocks at you for doing so…..

I simply do not believe you. Iran is a threat, not only to Israel, but to everyone around it. With the development of long range rockets, Europe is also in danger. When an insane theocratic “government” openly declares its desire to destroy another nation, what do you expect us to think?

Iran wants nothing less than a revived Persian empire from the Med to India.

I’m not going to rip into Meir here, but this is the kind of belief that scares the crud out of me. While it’s obvious Iran has or will have nuclear capability in the future, who will control it? Will it be the President; who obviously hates everything about the western world and is at the head of a regime that see’s the Holocaust as a big lie, or will the Supreme Leader be in charge…heaven knows who that could be in the near future. Let’s be honest here, with such an anti-western foundation to Iran’s government, are you seriously with the belief that Iran isn’t a threat? With the Durban II anti-racism conference and Obama allowing everyone to toss Israel under the bus by their silent treatment, turning the conference into a anti-Semitism love fest, who does Israel have on their side?

Make no mistake, regardless of wherever weapons grade material is stored and refined, Israel is all by its lonesome now. The “Dear One” and his “Band of Merry Misfits” have signaled quite clearly the US administrations stance on Israel.

Obama’s administration will allow Israel to do their dirty work. Iran is and always has been a threat to the region and when the time is right, will prove that. Israel as history proves, will not lay down and play dead.

It’s frightening and I have to be honest, it backs me up like a bad burrito.

This article is sort of like “negative hyperbole.” While I’m sure a document exists that declares “every drop” of produced nuclear fuel will be supplied by the Iranians, counted by the IAEA, and carted off by Putin et al., it’s not the type of confidence-inducing agreement that prompts one to exhale with relief. Each member in that troika are demonstrated liars and more politely: no friends of Israel.

No, things *are* in fact getting quite hot this year — although who knows, the author may be “justified” in the end when Israel, in a desire to prioritize the use of her precious bunker-busters may in fact bypass Bushehr and concentrate on Natanz. That type of war gaming I’ll leave to Jane’s Defence Weekly. It was either them or a pair of similarly credentialed colleagues that recently ran just such a detailed analysis — it was mathematically impressive, void of politics, and concluded that a fair degree of damage could in fact be inflicted.

There are only two items holding up the strike. The first is the formation of the new government in Israel. The second is a type of “temporal deference” to the new Obama administration.

But even if the latter goes sour, there are still ways for Israel to get the job done by taking the seemingly “impossible” route over international waters the entire way. Granted it would require a huge number of mid-air refuelings and a sort of “Doolittle’s Raid” ditching of their planes into the sea afterwards (where hopefully their Dolphin class Subs would pick them up). But it would be one hell of a surprise.

Lastly, in support of my contention that it’s really heating up: there are now all kinds of reports of increased ground activity in Iran of sniper kills, blackmail, the introduction of defective parts and more going on. This can be unfortunately seen by their “reflection” upon failure. That is the increasing pace of arrests being announced by Iran of late. The frequency would indicate that these brave men are being pushed to take more chances — and that is an indication that Israel truly feels her time is running out. It’s also an indication that Israel is loosing resources on the ground as the torture of these men is working and their groups are getting “rolled up.”

Israel was prepared to bomb Iran and wipe out their nuclear abilities. Pres. Bush would not allow Israel to fly over Iraq or refuel over Iraq. That ended that. The likelihood of an Israeli strike is waning quickly. BHO is more inclined to talk Iran to death than have to act. This is Jimmy Carter all over again.

Every drop of uranium at Natanz is also accounted for by the IAEA which monitors the place via cameras so Natanz is also not a threat to anyone except war mongering Zionists who are simply jealous that Iran is advancing its technological base and not kowtowing to Israeli ambitions for regional domination . Long live Iran!

The reactor, like the one the Israli’s destroyed at Osirak (also IAEA monitored), is capable of transmuting uranium to plutonium using its neutron flux. Iraq had a hidden neutron path to an area for that purpose.

Furthermore, Iran could stage a plutonium breakout the way the North Koreans did: simply throw out the inspectors and reprocess the fuel.

Israel should have no trouble destroying this reactor. The question is whether they are going to wait for it to be fueled, at which point radioactive contamination would be both a (political)problem and a (military)benefit for Israel after a strike.

However, the uranium enrichment program is the bigger near-term danger. It is much easier to use highly enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon than it is plutonium. It has been shown that a college student in the right fields possesses the knowledge and ability to do so. Simply put, gun-assembly HEU nukes are well understood and very easy to build. Getting the HEU is the hard part, and Iran is working hard on that – having now produced significant quantities of LEU.

The Iranian obfuscator strikes again — Mr. Javendafar’s blather amounts to a carefully constructed misdirection of naive Westerners. He deftly runs interference for the Mullahs — but supplies just enough criticism of them to lead uninformed readers to believe that he’s actually against the Iranian Islamic Regime — but he never mentions the Islamic underpinnings of the Nazi mentality of his countrymen, he never mentions how Islam has destroyed that once fine nation, or how Islam, after looting trillions in recent decades from the West, increasingly poses a direct existential threat to our continued freedom, prosperity, and survival.

I believe he, along with tens of thousands of his fellow Iranian expats, expends all his waking energy devising ways to misdirect our righteous fury against his hideous homeland. Further, the infiltration of academia, government, and intelligence by similar double agents has allowed the nuclear threat to become a reality in a mere three short decades. We once called this kind of treachery treason.

Here’s what I think will end up happening: Israel will fire an atomic bomb using a missile in the atmosphere above Natanz creating an Electromagnetic Pulse which would destroy all electronics within the immediate vicinity. Problem not solved, but at least delayed.

Bibi just isn’t going to wait until critical mass is reached to do something about it…

I am here to rip Meir. Winston hits it on the head. Pulling this quote.

“Technically, Bushehr is not a real danger to Israel. In fact, it is no danger at all. Bushehr is a nuclear power plant just like any other. None of the nuclear fuel it will use or low-enriched uranium will come from Iran. It will all be supplied by Russia. Furthermore, all the spent fuel, some of which can be used for weapons purposes, will be taken away by Russia. The Russian government and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will count every drop of nuclear fuel entering and leaving Iran. Therefore Iran cannot use any of the equipment at Bushehr for its military nuclear program.”

And we are to trust Russia why? And how better to change the balance of power in the mid-east than to provide Iran with the capabilities to build, arm and launch a Nuke? This is the second piece I have read of yours which reeks of capitulation. Submission. You sound like the fool El Baredi. Iran is a grave threat to world peace and stability. Your near defense of the Mullah’s is embarrassing and shameful. I often read how the Iranian counter revolution is around the corner, but I know this is not true. For the Basiji and the other Shia fanatics of Iran are happy to kill, maim and torture and are equally happy to die doing so. The “so called young revolutionary brights are nothing more than cowards. You have allowed your great nation and Persian culture to become a rats nest of hate and fanaticism.

You don’t even have the courage to take on the Mullah’s in writing. You should be embarrassed by this piece, and PJM needs to find a new spokesperson for the Iranian problem. For you are just another piece of it.

So enlighten us Rotwang. Mr. Nuclear scientist. With the help of Russia, and North Korea and other nations, in your expert opinion, Iran will never be able to create, arm and deliver a nuke? There is no threat now. In 2 years? 5 years? They openly call for the destruction of Israel, clearly have a nuclear program of which they boast about in the face of UN sanctions and you spend”NO time fretting over Iran’s nuclear program. Perhaps you are old, and without family and thus you feel no threat. Do a tad bit of research on the Mullah’s and the Basiji. Read Mattias Kuentzel and perhaps you’ll gain a better understanding of the serious threat Iran would become as a nuclear power.

And perhaps you have a few scientist buddies who can enlighten PJM readers about the dangers of global warming while you’re at it.

The problem is the fuel for the reactor. INstead of using uranium which is highly toxic and can be converted to weapon grade materials, why isnt Thorium used as the fuel for nuclear reactors?

Thorium is a proven fuel, burns at higher temperature than either uranium or plutonium so both could be incernerated in a Thorium fueld reactor. Thorium is plentifull and exists worldwide, and is far safer to store and decays faster than uranium or plutonium.

The only drawback is Thorium cannot be converted to weapons grade. But thats probably why it isnt used.

rotass: Perhaps the loss of my best friend at the hand of Islamic Terrorists on 9/11 and the loss of my beautiful 19 year old cousin (she was a wonderful young woman) fuel what you claim is “paranoia”. Your arrogance is astounding. Your reasoning non existent. May the unclenched fist of the Iranian regime come slap you or your loved ones someday. Wherever you live, you will be touched, someday. Someway. And then perhaps your arrogant ass will know what much of the world already knows. You deny the Basiji. The Children used as mineclearers. The stonings, the beheadings. Of course, a Moonbat ignores all of this as well as the regimes stated goals. Talk about comic books. You’re a joke. Go back to Koz land or Huff Po with your appeasement you giant skid mark!

No response from Rottass. To busy getting the new cleanser and broom out of the broom closet at that Nuclear power plant you mop the floors of everyday. A janitor at Indian point is not a nuclear scientist.

P.S. I have an original Trudeau Doonesbury cell on my wall. Although I might not always agree with his social commentary, his strip was based on the truths of human nature and often a fine satirical view of the real world around us and within us.

Mattias Kuentzel whom I am sure you have never read speaks the truth bravely.

Well, no, not every drop of uranium at Natanz is accounted for by the IAEA. Every drop of uraniom of which IAEA could get info about is accounted for by IAEA. The cameras at Natanz monitor only part of the complex.
CTG, you also forgot that your Khomeini had a fatwa against Iran having nuclear weapons, your khamenei changed it later.
Iran can be a power without nuclear bomb, but it seems to me that IRI is following an example of USSR – a lot of munitions, weak economy and a lot of propaganda. And we all know what happened to USSR.