"Trading is statistics and time series analysis." This blog details my progress in developing a systematic trading system for use on the futures and forex markets, with discussion of the various indicators and other inputs used in the creation of the system. Also discussed are some of the issues/problems encountered during this development process. Within the blog posts there are links to other web pages that are/have been useful to me.

Whilst I don't claim to understand all the mathematics behind this, the use of the output of this code is conceptually not that much more difficult than a FIR filter, i.e. multiply each value in a look back window by some coefficient, except that a polynomial of a given order is being least squares fit to all points in the window rather than, for example, an average of all the points being calculated. The code gives the user the ability to calculate the value of the polynomial at each point in the window, or its derivative(s) at that point.

I would particularly draw readers' attention to the derivative(s) link above. On this page there is an animation of the slope (1st derivative) of a waveform. If this were to be applied to a price time series the possible applications become apparent: a slope of zero will pick out local highs and lows to identify local support and resistance levels; an oscillator zero crossing will give signals to go long or short; oscillator peaks will give signals to tighten stops or place profit taking orders. And why stop there? Why not use the second derivative as a measure of the acceleration of a price move? And how about the jerk and the jounce of a price series? I don't know about readers, but I have never seen a trading article, forum post or blog talk about the jerk and jounce of price series. Of course, if one were to plot all these as indicators I'm sure it would just be confusing and nigh impossible to come up with a cogent rule set to trade with. However, one doesn't have to do this oneself, and this is what I was alluding to in my earlier post when I said that the Savitzky-Golay framework might provide unique and informative inputs to my neural net trading system. Providing enough informative data is available for training, the rule set will be encapsulated within the weights of any trained neural net.