Sunday, January 07, 2007

CD 8 in 08: To Bee or Not to Bee

Tucson, Arizona. Folks reading the Arizona Daily Star this morning will be treated to a full page article featuring Arizona’s new Senate President, Senator Tim Bee. You can read the article yourself. What is not mentioned in today’s paper is a company called iRapture.com, a small, Christian based firm run by Jacob Barr and Jeremy Lefevre. This company provides website design and development services as well as domain name hosting and administration for various groups that serve what could be considered Christian values.

Yep...they will be looking to get this one back and in a hardcore way. I look for Giffords to do a LOT of constituency service and to try to use her new post on Armed Services to work for some base related pork. She will also work with Democrats to pull the rug out from under the Republicans by supporting Bush's Border Plan. She will also do a lot to make bridges with businesses in Tucson (to fractionalize Bee's support with local business types), and to raise a ton of money to scare off the likes of Bee off from running in the first place.

All of that is the triangulating that will make her liberal base not so happy. She will have to do some work also to remind liberal voters why they supported her. Armed Services is a good platform from which to fight of things like troop increases in Iraq and to begin support for a phased withdraw.

The reason I have asked elsewhere about what other committees she is on is because they often set the stage for her priorities and what legislation a person will work on. Environment? Small business? Healthcare? Education?

Kralmajales,It is as though someone out there actually learned something from the Graf/Huffman debacle. I knew that as soon as Tim Bee became the majority leader in the Senate. Tim Bee represents my legislative district and he is well liked by pretty much everyone. He appeals to Democrats and Independents as well as Republicans at least at the legislative district level. If they are looking to bring someone up from the State legislature, he's probably as good as it gets.

However, the power of incumbency is very close impossible to overcome unless the incumbent is a soon to be convicted felon. Even so, what choice do you have if you are the opposition party? You have to at least have a go at it.

If the Republicans are able to get some local media attention for Tim Bee for the next two years, and if he is able to keep his positive image, then he may very well pose a threat to the Democratic incumbent in 2008.

I still think, however, that both Tim Bee and Rep. Giffords will be either burdened or exalted by the public's perception of their respective parties in 2008. Two years is an eternity in managing perceptions, but if I had to guess right now I would say that it's going to very tough for Republican candidates in 2008. Things can only get worse in the Mideast as this Bush presidency plays itself out. The Democrats are much harder to predict. They are obviously trying to hit the ground running with lobbying reforms, raising the minimum wage, etc... and I think that's a good strategy. The problem for them is Iraq.

So, all the Republicans can do about CD8 is promote an appealing "new" candidate, pour millions of dollars into his campaign, and hope that the Republican majority can take back the district.

Well said, Liza and Roger, but I also have to acknowledge Mike's observation. On further analysis, those domains were only registered for a single year, and in fact expire literally this week. It will be interesting to see if they are allowed to expire. If they do, it strongly supports Mike's assertion that they were locked up for the 06 race, although I find it interesting that Graf would consider Bee a possibility in January of 2006.

It begs the question of how many other url's IRapture secured. I don't have the time to go on a "domain hunt." Tim Bee already has www.timbee.com which he can certainly use for his campaign.

ThinkRight posted way back in December about Bee running against Giffords. Not to take away from the hard work of her campaign staff, but Graf in 2006 was hardly a true test of Giffords mettle.

Liza is of course correct about incumbency in general, but I think CD 8 in 08 defies the norm. Gabrielle is vulnerable in 08. If she defeats a strong, centrist Republican next time, then her position is probably locked.

There's no way Giffords' position is "locked". I also agree Bee is the best R candidate I see out there to run against Giffords.

Liza makes a good point about the influence of party perception in 2008, and I am going to take it a step further. If she's right, and the war remains an anchor around the neck of the Republican party, then the R's are faced with a terrible predictiment:

1. Have Bee run against Giffords anyway. The problem here is the possibility of the war effect being impossible to overcome. If Giffords were to defeat a solid candidate like Bee, no matter for what reason, then the power of incumbancy would really kick in for her.

2. If the anchor seems too heavy, then maybe Bee opts NOT to run in 2008, hoping for a better landscape in 2010. I think this scenario would still leave Giffords open to defeat by a good, centrist, well-funded R candidate BUT the extra two years to consolidate her position would just make it all that much harder.

Of course, all this speculation could be made moot if the administration pulls a rabbit from it's hat and miraculously comes up with a successful plan to resolve the Iraq situation. I'm not holding my breath.