000
FXUS63 KMKX 080920
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
320 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence High.
The upper trough axis and PVA is currently exiting se WI. There were
heavier snow showers earlier this morning but mostly just flurries
remain. Weak AVA and gradual height rises for today into tonight
although a weakening surface trough from the north will pass this
afternoon. This will help maintain the flurries or light snow
showers. Highs in the 20s today and teens tonight.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...Forecast confidence is high.
High pressure drops down into the Northern Plains and moves across
SW WI Friday night. Skies will remain cloudy but it will be the
coldest night of the week.
Models continue to show some snow Saturday afternoon and night.
There continues to be a lot of variability with the surface
pressure pattern and precip. It looks to be a couple inches minimum
with model consensus giving around 5 inches. Cyclogenesis occurs
east of the Rockies on Saturday with divergence from an upper jet
over S WI. The NAM and GFS have weak low pressure moving through the
region with stronger warm air advection resulting in higher precip
amounts. These models show additional forcing aided by a shortwave.
The ECMWF and Canadian models are slower with the movement of the low
and have lower precip.
There will be a temporary increase in temperatures during this time.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Forecast confidence is low.
A shortwave is forecast to move through Sunday night as the
main area of surface low pressure finally moves southeast of the
state. Depending on how close this low gets to WI there may be around
round of snow. The past few runs of the ECMWF have been showing this
scenario, but the GFS is dry. So, there is a chance of more snow
Sunday afternoon thorough Monday morning.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is high.
There is a chance for snow on Tuesday. Northwest flow at the mid
levels dominates and arctic high pressure moves into the region. It
will be cold with highs in the single digits and wind chill values
below zero. Below normal temperatures will likely extend beyond this
period.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR cigs and flurries will continue today
along with gusty wly winds. The winds will gradually weaken tonight.
The stratocumulus clouds will remain tonight but the flurries
will eventually dissipate.
&&
.MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM
Friday. A large low pressure area will move across southern Canada
but still bring brisk westerly winds to Lake MI into early Friday
AM. High waves will occur toward the open waters.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday for LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...Marquardt