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Friday, April 6, 2012

What's Next For Indie Authors… After KDP Select?

Okay, I'll say it… it's the big elephant in the room, anyway. Authors everywhere are wondering what's coming after KDP Select. Word is there are over 100,000 authors enrolled in Amazon's hottest marketing platform, and more are coming everyday. So what happens when the program is saturated beyond it's current level?

I know you're worried. I hear authors every day talking about the delays in their "free day" and less than stellar sales compared to one or two months ago. The Amazon brainchild is a great idea and can work wonders for indie and newly published authors with little to no platform, but what happens when it is no longer effective? What happens when there are 150,000 or 200,000 or 300,000 authors fighting for a successful free promotion?

To answer that question I've come up with a few predictions.

Prediction #1:
Obviously Amazon has plans to expand on their promotions because when you schedule your "Free Book" promotion they ask you want kind of promotion. Well, there is only one at the present time. This tells me they've planned for additional promotions in the future. As a book promoter I know there are hundreds of ways to spin a new promotion. And with Amazon's resources, the sky is the limit. I believe they can offer a wide assortment of "promotions" like a free public announcement in their daily news letter, or a feature in a "HOT Prime reads" email blast. Basically Amazon has the power to promote anyone they want and if they want to promote you, if you have good reviews and a nice cover, you can become a bestseller, on the house.

Here's what I mean. Amazon's algorithms include lots of great stuff that everyone wishes they understood. Mathematically, it probably looks something like this only far more complicated:

a123*n^2 +200*n+a5 is in O(n^2) where n = your book(s) and a = Amazon's promo of choice.

Now just add water and you can either come out smelling like a dew dampened rose or a pair of sweaty socks. It all depends on what Amazon plugs into the formula. So I think Amazon will add promotions that continue the carrot-dangling effect we are all feeling now.

Prediction #2:
I think Amazon can create multiple levels of promotions. For example, if you're enrolled now, as I am, we could all be in "Phase One". When they reach a calculated saturation point, say 150,000 lab rats, they can move us into "Phase Two" and hold any new comers in phase one for a select amount of time. Phase two could very well be an entirely different set of promotions, or free days with additional options to choose from. I do not think more free days would be advantageous as I am less excited to use my free days compared to how I felt two months ago.

Amazon could effectively create "Genre Promotions" or "Rating Promotions" or reward authors with "Loyalty Promotions". Anything is possible with these turkeys; they're brilliant. They are way ahead of the curve. They are water, wind, fire, and ground breakers.

Prediction #3:
Enough authors will leave the program when it becomes saturated, leaving a more vibrant and robust community of authors who will once again thrive in the Select program. If this happens, you better believe Amazon will reward those peeps.

So if you're concerned with how you're going to market your books when KDP Select is no longer "da chit", fear not. In my opinion, Amazon is NOT going to tuck their tale and limp home to their dog house. They're here for the long haul, and they intend to be profitable, and yes, on the willing backs of authors like you and me.

I'm good with that. Amazon's quadroupled my royalties in the last three months, so they're my new best friend.

Unlike Barnes & Noble, Amazon is made up of forward thinkers and Ace MBA's. I've put my faith in a few significant things like God, the food I put in my body, and the people I love. But I would almost, at the risk of sounding sacrilegious, put my faith in Amazon's shrewdness.

The question is not what or how they're going to adapt, but when the new program will take place. Scott Nicholson and I both predicted that the Select program could have a six-month life span. But I think this program is pulling a Benjamin Button on us because it's growing weaker by the day. Therefore, I'm guessing that Amazon will roll out another program of some kind by mid to late summer. I also think there's a chance that Amazon is just waiting to release the next monster as soon as Smashwords or B&N attempt a counter attack. The result, in my opinion, will continue to benefit indie authors and readers everywhere.

If all of this confuses you, I'd invite you read The Indie Author's Guide to the Universe. This book is the 101, 201, and 301 of indie authorship courses. I filled it with stuff like this and more from cover to cover. Don't believe me, just read the reviews.

Finally, if you're looking for a new promotional opportunity, I highly recommend that you register for THE BEST INDIE BOOKS of 2012 at The Kindle Book Review, my sister site. This contest is designed to help promote quality indie authors. Even if you don't win, you will walk away with a nice title that'll look nice on any book page. Click here to learn more info.

I couldn't agree with your more! Amazon is the most forward thinking company out there right now. I love being in KDP Select! If anyone can or will come up with anything fresh, its going to be Amazon. ;o)

With 860 million Facebook users and 165 million Amazon customers, I can see the future of e-commerce, particularly books, will transfer to a platform where the customer base is so much larger. My prediction, in 10 years, Kindle will be history.

Hmmmm! Interesting comment from Robin; but I doubt seriously that kindle will go away. If that is the case, the ipad will go away and like that will happen. I myself have 3 kindles and an IPad. I still prefer a hard copy book in my hand; but I will not give up my toys. I will say I refuse to pay some the prices they want for some of the ebooks.

Unless they invent a way to zap stories into my brain where I can still experience them to their fullest (the movie Total Recall comes to mind!)...I can't imagine the Kindle going away. They'll have a BETTER product if anything. We do love our gadgets. I do anticipate Amazon coming up with yet ANOTHER brilliant idea and I stand ready to take advantage of their brilliance!! Great post, Jeff, thanks!

Bezos just read Deborah's comment and is taking notes, "Hmm ... Memo to my tech team: Please conceive and design 'Brainzapping' technology and have it ready to launch by the summer (per: Jeff B's prediction).

Will beta test on former Borders employees - will zap their brains with EVERY free novel released between now and then. May turn their brains to marmalade but - 'survival of the fittest,' is what we believe here at Amazon!

10 years from now is a long time in the world of gadgets. Maybe we will all be wearing the new Google Glasses with heads up display. Just read a book on your glasses as you are waiting. Blink your eye to turn the page. Maybe audio from the glasses. Blink both eyes to take a snapshot of the world and autoload it into "SpaceBook".

Jeff, I have no doubt Amazon will have a version 2 of KDP select. Maybe they will only offer Version #2 to the top tier sellers making it more exclusive.

As you know I come from a different part of the book industry (not an author) and spent 7+ years in district management for a national book chain. I followed book sales daily for 365 days out of the year.

Going to your comment on KDP slowing down. Just maybe KDP is following the traditional cycle of book sales for the past 30 years. 46 weeks worth of relatively flat sales with a few minor sales blips and then 6 weeks of increasing sales leading up to Christmas and the week after.

The sales you have been experiencing in Jan/Feb might just be the "holiday season of digital sales" since people received their Kindles and tablets the last week of December. If that is truely the case, then the rest of the year will not mirror your end of Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar? sales but will be relatively flat.

M-Day, F-Day, Graduation, Back to School,Easter, Summer Reads, and more are all promotions you see in a bookstore. The actual sales have very little impact on a week to week basis. A person walking into a store may buy one of those highlighted books but does not really increase sales overall. The customer was coming in to buy a book anyway. Retail means you have to have a promo going every week.

Fact of the day: "Normal retail stores" will do about 2-4x the sales during the Christmas season. Obviously stores that sell products that are more gift worthy see more of an increase (think Home Depot vs a Jewelery store).

In the book business and especially the last 10 days before Christmas, a book store will do the same sales volume in a day that they would normally do in a week during the non-holiday season. In other words, the last 10 days before Christmas might be the same as 10 WEEKS of sales during the year.

Could the KDP select period of Jan/Feb/maybe March be the holiday season? If so, then a lot of indie authors who did not sign up missed out on Christmas and will have to wait 9 months until the next Christmas season.

Just a view from a different side of the fence. Have a great day. Anthony

Hey, Anthony. Thanks for the great information. Should've told you I wanted to write a post about those dates and sales cycles per our last phone conversation. I agree with you that these cycles are part of regular sales trends. No doubt about that. But the thing to remember is, as more authors come in, and we go from 5,000 to 10,000 to 15,000 to 30,000 free books offered in a day, the KDP free days will become a useless curency.

Love you post. Going to try to take the other side for discussion purposes. Maybe KDP select is NOT meeting the expectations of Amazon management. There are not enough authors/free books participating to make the promotion effective. They need to have 15,000 books free in a given day. When they reach this number the KDP free days will become a more valuable currency. OK - just reversing your statements, but here are a couple of bones to chew on.

1) Almost every Kindle book owner early on looks at the Amazon free bestsellers list (I did). The problem is that either it has the same "classics" on the list or some book that has average reviews but has been free forever. Readers read one or two of these "free" books and are not thrilled and think they suck. (This is a twitter quote I had sent to me last night). Amazon's Bestseller list for free books is a weak link. OK, I am bragging about our handpicked Top 100 list. However, we get compliments everyday on our list.

2) By having 15,000 free books on any day would improve the KDP select free program for authors "with quality" books. Amazon can't promote the number of free titles as a lure because they don't have enough participation. Amazon might have to raise the payout amount to attract more authors to enroll in the KDP program.

3) Jeff, you know me. The Stat of the Day. Saturday 4/7/2012Total Free books on Amazon: 4,132New free books added on 4/7: 663# of books (663) that have 10+ reviews: 45# of books (663) that have 10+ reviews AND 4.0+ stars: 29Imagine if there were 41,320 (10x) free books on Amazon and your book was in the list of the 290 (10x) books with 10+reviews and 4.0+ stars.

People would be knocking down the doors daily looking to see that list of the "Best Free Kindle Books". As of right now I don't think there is even a crowd at the door.

Scott, sent you an email covering some other topics. Simple answer to your above question.

Without a doubt I cannot say they 100% accurate! What is accurate is that I collect the data daily, from the same source, and within an hour of the same time each day. While the data may be incomplete the trend analysis can be very helpful in looking at the bigger picture. We collect daily data for our 4 largest sites (not all book sites).

A big problem that anybody has in collecting (book) data is that Amazon does not provide any info covering everything. You can see your own info, but we can't see the big picture. We can't even get this from cached Amazon web pages because their data is dynamic and not static when it is presented on a page. The numbers are always moving.

For example: this morning when I did my usual search for free books around 7:00AM CST there were 3305 free books on Amazon. Now at 9:11CST there are 3307 free books on Amazon. Here is an example of why statistical trends need to be done covering a specifc and consistent time period.

Trends are extremely helpful when accurate daily is not available.

Hope this helps. Would love to hear what other sources are at our disposal to unweave this web of data. Maybe this would help solve the question "What is the best day to do a KDP select free day?". Authors are always asking this question.

I have a hypothesis for the lack of a boost on sales following a free promotion.

In February, I know for a fact that free books were factored into a book's "popularity" rating. So, AFTER my two free days, when random book buyers looked for mystery and thrillers in the Kindle store, particularly suspense books, they saw my book (the cover was even prominently highlighted by Amazon) near the top of the list. As a result, I saw big sales (for me, anyway).

In March, I do not think the free books were included in the popularity ranking anymore. My book was still downloaded by 8,000 some people in a two-day period, and the sales afterward were higher than normal but not exceptional. I looked at other free books during the same period (including everything Scott wrote, from what I can tell) and none of these got included in the "popularity" ranking either. This makes me think Amazon changed the rules of the game. Maybe they saw too many formerly free books on the bestseller lists and decided to remove those downloads from their popularity calculations. Not saying this is unfair, by the way, just giving a theory. I could be wrong.

Overall, I agree with Anthony that Amazon needs a better way to present free books.

And I just read my kids Duncan the Punkin, Scott, on Easter (I know, a Halloween book on Easter) and they loved it.

You are as thoughtful and forwardthinking as Amazon, Jeff! I too am a convert, and anticipate they are planning for the saturation of the program. We are happy lab rats, giggling all the way to the bank!Toby NealAuthor of Blood Orchids

I have one recommendation. I say send these ideas to somebody high up on the Amazon chain because they're good ones. Maybe with a little nudge from the Indie author field they'll take what you say to heart. I'd be happy with any one of these ideas coming to fruition.

Good post and interesting thoughts, but I think your authorial focus might be skewing the possibilities. Amazon isn't really interested in independent authors so much as in how relationships with independent authors can affect the services they offer their customers--readers. Amazon is more interested, right now, in book readers, music listeners, and movie watchers, and it's set up its overall platform to deliver better reading experiences to each. Amazon is probably less interested in KDP Select than in what KDP Select enables them to do--which is drive up the number of titles in its library that B&N and Apple don't have (because KDP Select books are exclusive to Amazon), and drive up membership in Amazon Prime--members of which can borrow one book in the Kindle Lending Library Free.

If that's what Amazon wants, its next step could be to increase their pool of money dedicated to titles in the Kindle Lending Library, which would bring more authors to it, or it might lift the limit on the number of books Prime customers could "borrow". 10, as opposed to one? 25? One title per day? That'd be interesting, if Amazon let Prime customers download one free Kindle enrolled in the Lending Library every day. Or maybe just one per week.

I don't know, but what Amazon offers to independent authors in KDP Select is going to come from wanting to drive more readers into Prime memberships. To be honest, I don't think Amazon needs to do anything, really, because while you're correct that the KDP Select thing and promotional giveaways are reaching a point of saturation with so many independent authors doing it, I'm not sure that really affects Amazon's business or its relationship with its customers. Saturation might make it more difficult to stand out, but that may be our challenge to figure out, not Amazon's.

I agree, this is all about the library and Prime subscriptions--but this is good news/bad news for Amazon. The library has 100,000 books, but most of them are NOT the authors most readers have made favorites. Of course, it is great if you are an indie and have a chance to get some of those readers. But if you are a reader who likes established authors, Prime is not such a great attraction for books only--although it could seem attractive as a bonus to all the free shipping and movies. Select is more than just making your book free, it is a fleeting chance to steal some shelf space before the big kids get there.

I'm interested in what will come next, but I'm very afraid of what all these free books is doing to ebook sales. Maybe readers are getting so spoiled, they'll be hard-pressed to ever pay for them again.

I'm a little skeptical about your sister site. If you can sign up your book to have a 'best book' title, that title will have nothing to do with the quality. Fine for promoting, but you're doing the reading public no favors.

I live in Utah. They give out an award to businesses called "best in state," but business owners, in the beginning, were able to nominate themselves by dropping 50 bucks. Needless to say, the title does nothing for businesses now. No one believes it.

Hi L.L ~ Eh, don't worry about being a downer. Not hurt feelings here. The thing you need to understand is, one of our top reviewers is prescreening all of our submissions. She is tossing anything that is poorly edited, etc. So our reviewers/judges are only receiving books that have passed the screening process. They are already telling me how hard the judging is going to be because our screener is doing such a good job. We have a team of avid readers/reviewers, one of whom is also a judge in a Sacremento Book fair/contest.

So if you think the contest is useless, you'll just have to ask our reviewers. They are a pretty good judge of books. We are not simply giving away the title of "best book". Author's who pass initial screening are entered into the semifinals, a far cry from "Best Book". That title will only go to one author per genre. As an amazon top 1000 reviewer (624 currently) we are gaining credibility to parallel the results of the contest. To clarity further, I can point out atleast 5 books that we have featured that have made it into Amazon's Top 100, and some the Top 5 after we featured their book.

Not trying to pull a fast one, but providing readers with book choices that are exceeding the average indie/small press ratings.

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