"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Saturday, 15 October 2016

Sydney property investors come storming back

In fact the ABS Lending Finance figures showed total commercial finance declining moderately once again in August.

In trend terms commercial finance has now been on the slide since May 2015. Yuck!

As a result total lending finance is also about 9 per cent lower than it was in Q3 2015, even after accounting for a rebound in property investor loans over the past seven months.

Sydney investors return with a vengeance

I've been noting for a little while that property investor loans have been quietly creeping back in Australian month-on-month - and in New South Wales in particular - and now the cat is really getting out of the bag again.

Here are the raw original figures for NSW investor loans in calendar year 2016, not seasonally adjusted:

January $3.1 billion

February $3.9 billion

March $4.5 billion

April $4.5 billion

May $5.3 billion

June $5.8 billion

July $5.2 billion

August $5.5 billion

Remember these figures aren't seasonally adjusted, so the original or 'like-for-like' figures over the past few years look like this:

August 2012 $2.7 billion

August 2013 $3.5 billion

August 2014 $4.6 billion

August 2015 $5.0 billion

August 2016 $5.5 billion

The equivalent figure during the financial crisis nadir in August 2008 was just $1.7 billion.

Ex-refinancing, investors in NSW are now accounting for nearly 50 per cent of loans again.

No other state comes remotely close to that, even Victoria.

Following last year's macroprudential intervention, the value of property investor loans is now higher than a year ago in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, and activity looks to be rising again.

This means that as weaker results start to drop off, when plotted in rolling annual terms, the investor loans chart should be starting to turn up again.

And, so it is...

Even Darwin investor loans now seem to have found a base (as do those in Western Australia) - something I didn't think I'd find myself saying in 2016 - with vacancy rates in the Northern Territory capital apparently now declining again.

The wrap

The increases may look to be moderate to date in rolling annual terms,.

But overall stock levels are well down on last year, hence the pressure on auction clearance rates in inner-suburban areas.

Sydney recorded a preliminary auction clearance rate of 80 per cent today, with the median auction price running as high as $1,222,500.