January 22, 2008

Cronkite-Eight Poll

Arizona's presidential preference election is coming up soon. Who will Arizonans select as their choice for Republican Party and Democratic Party presidential nominees? Find out in the latest Cronkite/Eight Poll with analysis by Poll Director Dr. Bruce Merrill and Associate Director Tara Blanc.
Read the complete Poll results.

>>Ted Simons:
Tonight on "Horizon," we'll talk to a local economist about how bad things are. Senator john mccain does well in his home state, and hillary clinton is most popular among arizona democrats. The results of the latest Cronkite Eight poll. A state lawmaker introduces several bills that could revise the employer sanctions law. We'll talk to him about his bills. And a new bill will soon be introduced to license those who sell mortgages. We'll talk to the sponsor of the bill. That's next on "Horizon." "Horizon" is made possible by contributions of the friends of eight, members of your arizona pbs station. Thank you.

>>Ted Simons:
Hello and welcome to "Horizon." I'm Ted Simons. The Federal Reserve slashes the federal funds rate by three-quarters of a percent. Wall street takes a 465-point plunge minutes into trading, but then recovers most of that loss. Work to pass an economic -- scurry to pass an economic stimulus plan. That's just the economic news from today. Here to talk about it is Arizona State University Economist Tracy Clark.

>>Ted Simons:
Are we headed for a recession, coming out of a recession --

>> Tracy Clark:
I think we're in one. And it is probably a little bit worse here than it is for the nation as a whole, just because we've had more impact from the housing downturn than other parts of the country.

>>Ted Simons:
How long do recessions usually last?

>> Tracy Clark:
Usually maybe two quarters, like six months, or maybe three quarters, nine months. Thankfully mostly upturns last longer than downturns. We're probably going to see weakness in 2008 and then start seeing some signs of improvement as we go into 2009.

>> Ted Simons:
Unemployment rates seem reasonable. The interest rates seem reasonable. People are working. People apparently are borrowing, some of these signs seem like things should be better than they are. What's going on?

>> Tracy Clark:
Well, there is a credit crunch. That's one of the big problems. The other problem, of course, consumers aren't spending as much as they were because they can't refinance their house. They feel uncertain about the economy, and when that spending goes down, the economy goes down.

>> Ted Simons:
Can consumers spend their way -- can we all spend our way out of this situation?

>> Tracy Clark:
I think that probably the answer to that is in the short run no because one of the big problems, of course, is that everyone's racked up quite a bit of debt. Disposable income, almost 14\% -- we used to scream bloody murder when it got to 12. People need to get their balance sheets back in order before the economy can really start moving forward again.

>> Ted Simons:
Does that mean the economic stimulus plan is a nice idea? What kind of stimulus plan would work, do you think?

>>Tracy Clark:
I don't think there is any stimulus plan that would prevent us from having the economic slow down that we have. The economic stimulus plans that they're discussing, as long as they're implemented rapidly could make the downturn shorter. But there is -- there isn't enough money to make the problem go away tomorrow.

>> Ted Simons:
And how long would an economic stimulus plan take before it started affecting things?

>> Tracy Clark:
If they implement it rapidly and they get the money into people's hands, if those people then spend the money, you know, that impact would be pretty much immediate. It's just that the hole is pretty big, and we -- this will just keep us from going deeper and then it will be a little bit easier to climb out of the rest of it.

>> Ted Simons:
The fed action today cutting interest rates, how much does that affect things in general and in particular folks looking at mortgages? Does it make that much of a difference?

>>Tracy Clark:
It doesn't really impact what's going to happen with a lot of people's mortgages. What it does do, and the reason i think they did it was to get everyone's attention. They saw that the international equity markets were going down. They assumed, quite rightly, that national equity markets were probably going to go down. They had to do something dramatic to get people's attention and say, hey, we're on top of this. Don't panic. And that's what they did.

>> Ted Simons:
And that brings me to my next question which is how much of what we're talking about right now underlying everything is psychological?

>> Tracy Clark:
Almost always in economics there is a fairly large component that's psychological. Obviously there are some problems in the economy. Too much debt, overvalued assets in the housing market, but if the psychology was different, if the psychology was the same as it was six or eight months ago, this would only be a blip in the road. As it is, because the psychology is so negative, it's turning into a recession.

>> Ted Simons:
Arizona Senator John McCain leads the pack by quite a bit in Arizona. And Hillary Clinton has a big lead among democrats in our state. Those are the results of the latest cronkite eight poll. The poll was conducted by the Walter Cronkite school of journalism and mass communication at Arizona state university and eight TV. January 17th through the 20th. In two separate polls, we interviewed 375 republicans and 366 democrats who are most likely to vote. The margin of error for republicans is 5\%, 5.1\% for democrats. Here are the results.

>> Mike Sauceda:
We asked those who will vote for a particular candidate why they will vote for that person. 21\% of those who plan to vote for McCain say they like his views, 16\% said he was experienced, qualified, 14 percent cited his military background, with other reasons following into the single digit category. Of those who plan to vote for Romney, 40\% cite conservative credentials, 18\% his business background, 12\% thinks he is the best candidate running. For huckabee, 15\% like his views, 10\% think he is honest. Among democrats who plan to vote for a particular candidate, 38 like clinton because of her experience, 30\% views of issues, think her husband will be a help for her, 9\% said we need a woman president with others getting single digit responses. Those who plan to vote for Obama, 47\% like his vision for change, 10\% believe in him, 10\% think he is a smart person, other reasons registering single digit responses. 40\% of those who plan to vote for John Edwards say he is a right candidate for the times, other reasons receiving smaller responses.

>> Ted Simons:
Here to talk about the results of the latest poll, its Director Dr. Bruce merrill and associate director tara blanc.

>> Bruce Merrill:
John McCain is on a role. A lot of good news out of new hampshire, south carolina, he has solidified his vote here. On the democratic site, consistently Hillary Clinton has had about an 18, 20 percentage point advantage over obama. We found the same thing in this poll. This poll is among those most likely to vote. I think that she does well simply because she is kind of the party person here. She has been in politics a long time. Traditional voter is a party-oriented person. Obama supporters are more likely to be nontraditional than young people. Hillary has the lead clearly with two weeks to go.

>> Ted Simons:
Considering the voters surveyed here, the ones most likely to vote, two weeks before the primary, 20\% still undecided, unusual?

>> Tara Blanc:
Perhaps a little unusual. It could be partly because of the number of candidates that are out there, and also with the ups and downs of the primaries. You know, John mccain went in and started the win -- Obama came in and won off the top, and then Clinton came back and it has been back and forth, back and forth. Some people are watching what's happening around the country and waiting to see how the wind blows to make up their own mind, or to go -- they might like one candidate for one reason, another candidate for another and see how it all shakes out before they make up their mind.

>>Ted Simons:
For those leaning toward one candidate or another, how does that play into the whole dynamic?

>> Tara Blank:
What we found we asked people the question in two parts. First we asked if they were firm on their decision about who they wanted to vote for. Then we asked who that was. If they said they weren't firm, we asked who they were leaning toward. We have two types of responses. And the people that are firm in their decision formed a smaller percentage, and that larger pool of undecided, you have a little less -- leeway there, and so if you really are looking at the people who have decided, I mean, that firm, solid, not going to change their minds. Undecided, there may be play there. Although, if they have named a candidate, even if they are just leaning towards them, usually that means they have made up their mind. It would take a lot to get them to change. They are just waiting to see just to be sure.

>> Ted Simons:
I thought it was interesting, Bruce, to see how many people thought senator Clinton was their firm choice because of president Clinton.

>> Bruce Merrill:
Absolutely. The two things that were interesting that did come out in the poll, 12\% for all of the reasons given for supporting Hillary Clinton was because we like Bill Clinton. It is like a two-for. If you vote for Hillary, you are getting bill. People forget he was a very popular president. With the economy getting bad, I think for some people it is reassuring to know that she can go home and talk to somebody that's been there, and done it, and i think it helps.

>> Ted Simons:
Governor Napolitano comes out endorsing Barack Obama. Any idea how much influence that will be?

>> Bruce Merrill:
Almost none. It takes nothing away from the governor. A great deal of academic research that shows endorsements rarely have any significant impact, and the reason is that governor Napolitano is well liked in Arizona, she is one of the most popular governors we've ever had, but even if she endorsed obama, some people don't like being told how they're going to vote. I don't think it is a factor in the outcome. There are just too many other factors that are bigger factors.

>>Ted Simons:
The economy a big factor honestly in a lot of ways. Governor McCain came out saying I don't know that much about the economy, which is straight talk --

>>Tara Blanc:
When times are tough, we have an economy that looks like it is going south. Problems in Iraq. All of these things that are going on. A lot of times people looking for leadership and people with experience. That is likely going to be Hillary Clinton's edge, because she has been there, she has done that. She not only has the back-up of Bill Clinton, in the senate, politics for a long time, McCain also has that. I suspect that you would see Hillary Clinton would have a different story to tell if asked the same question.

>>Ted Simons:
Thank you so much for joining us. Appreciate it.

>> Bruce Merrill:
Glad to be here.

>> Ted Simons:
Seven bills that would make changes to Arizona's employer sanctions law have been introduced at the state legislature. One, a correction to make state law match up with federal law is already making progress. In a moment, i'll talk to the sponsor of the majority of proposed legislation. Here's a quick look at the bills.

>> Mike Sauceda:
Reference to federal law. Bill as passed makes a reference to the wrong federal law. House bill 2342 would make it clear that independent contractors are not subject to the law because they are not employees. House bill 2343 would require that any complaints be made in writing. Contain the full name and address of the person complaining. Right now the law allows anonymous complaints. The bill would ban discrimination as a motive for filing a complaint. House bill 2344 would make it tougher to prosecute an employer by changing the definition of knowingly hiring an illegal worker to the phrase have actual or constructive knowledge that the person is an unauthorized alien. It would raise the level of proof for a conviction to beyond a reasonable doubt. 2345 would take the state attorney general out of the enforcement equation. 2346 would make it clear that the law applies only to new hires. Here to tell us more is Bill Konopnicki.

>> Ted Simons:
Here to tell us more is republican state representative, Bill Konopnicki. Bill, thanks for joining us.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Thanks Ted, thanks for having me on.

>> Ted Simons:
Why did you decide to lead the way on this.

>> Quick history on hospital 2779 it was done the tuesday before we ended the session. The governor when she signed it said there need to be fixes in the bill. What these bills are, are a representation of those things that needed to be fixed.

>>Ted Simons:
you voted for the bill, correct?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
I did.

>> Ted Simons:
Was that a mistake?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Yes, it was. We were told there would be an initiative. Told we would have an opportunity to fix some of the problems of the bill, it would apply from this point moving forward not retroactively backwards.

>> Ted Simons:
You are mentioning, trying to figure out if this deals with new hires only.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Yes, that is the idea. You wouldn't go back retroactively, the employers who employed these people, could not use any other methods to e-verify, it is illegal to do that.

>>Ted Simons:
Was that something to do when the bill was first presented, the word employ is getting a lot of attention right now, is this something that people didn't realize would have this much ambiguity?

>> Bill Konopnicki.:
I think so. People didn't have much of a chance to look at the bill. The definitions of things like employ, we did not have the opportunity to vet those and be able to decide what that meant.

>>Ted Simons:
You own Mcdonald's restaurants.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
I do. Minority owner, my son is the majority owner of those.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Directly, i don't think it will have any direct impact, other than it costs more money to verify all of the employees that we have as we hire them and make sure that we have the regulation in place that we can meet the standards. Most businessmen in the state of Arizona try to comply with the law. They file the i-9's, get the information, try to be compliant with the law. What the intent originally of the bill was to look at those people who have no idea of following the law and are openly and blatantly violating the law.

>>Ted Simons:
Is that another reason why another bill would make e-verify optional instead of required?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
If you have -- you can't choose to -- the idea would hold a carrot out there, if you e-verify, you will have the ability to have a burden of proof against you that you wouldn't have the other way. The way it is now everybody has to do e-verify and a lot of people are choosing not to do that, and it is to change it from a stick to a carrot.

>> Ted Simons:
How much traction is that getting?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
It will have some traction. A lot of response by a lot of people. The thing that happens is that we have people opposed to making these changes dealing on emotion and not dealing with logic and fact. We want people to e-verify. We want them to have a reason to be able to comply with the law and not look for reasons to circumvent the law.

>>Ted Simons:
Another one of your bills, 2342 exempt independent contractors from the law. Why is that necessary?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
So many different businesses around the state hire independent contractors to do their business now. It's one thing to make you verify your own employees, but when you start dipping into independent contractors, you have to reach far to verify those individuals. You have no control over them.

>> Ted Simons:
Another one of your bills would make it tougher in terms of the burden of proof. Verbiage, knowingly hiring to actual or constructive knowledge.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
What happens is the consequences of these bills, somebody losing their income, life savings, if all of their employees have lost their jobs. Bank note, foreclosure on the hands. If you are going to enforce the law, you want to make sure that you absolutely positively have somebody that is violating the law.

>> Ted Simons:
From the critics point of view, it seems that this is just a way to gut the law. How would you respond?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
If the individuals would read the bills, they would see that these are strengthening the law, removing some of the problems. Put teeth in the employer sanction bill so it can be enforced. Emotion piece, oh, he is trying to tear the law down. In fact we're trying to do -- the citizens want something that is enforceable. These bills make that law more enforceable.

>> Ted Simons:
Is there not a threat, public relations is everything, if you think they're trying to gut it, then here comes the initiative process again.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
The initiative process never went away. It's still around. The thing that makes it difficult a lot of these people are dealing with emotion. They don't want to deal with the fact. They want these things struck down.

>> Ted Simons:
Odds that these things are going to get through?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Well, as a package, all of them won't get through. Individual bills have a high probability and some have 50/50 chance.

>>Ted Simons:
Thank you for joining us.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Thanks for having me.

>>Ted Simons:
Those who sell mortgages carry a huge responsibility. They sell you the biggest purchase of your life. Yet in our state, mortgage sellers are not licensed. A state lawmaker will soon introduce a bill to change that. I talked to senator Jay Tibshraeny about his new mortgage seller licensing bill.

>> Ted Simons:
And senator, thank you for joining us.

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
Thanks for having me this evening.

>> Ted Simons:
You will soon introduce a bill that will license mortgage sellers. Why is this important?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
It is important for many reasons. We have had a meltdown in the mortgage industry for many reasons. Last year i ran mortgage fraud legislation, making certain offenses a crime, and a serious crime. There is no licensing of people who sell you your mortgage. If you go buy a house or piece of ground, that real estate agent is licensed, as is his broker, stocks, bonds, that person is licensed but in the mortgage industry, in this case of Arizona, there is no licensing of the person selling you that mortgage which is a major investment that you will undertake in your lifetime.

>>Ted Simons:
You mentioned bankers and brokers are regulated, sellers aren't. How did we get to that decision?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
That's a good question. 28 other states do license the salesmen and the brokers. In Arizona only the bankers and brokers. That is a system whose time needs to come to an end in terms of now we need to take the next logical step and we need to license the people selling that. That's why -- that is the whole impetus behind this idea, license the people selling the mortgages to us.

>> Ted Simons:
What are some of the problems that you have seen that crop up because these folks aren't licensed?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
Some of the problems you are seeing is they're putting people into loans that they're maybe not qualified for. They're putting them into loans where they don't explain to them all of the terms. They're putting them in loans to where they're -- it just may not be suited to that buyer. What we will do by licensing people selling that mortgage, a different level of professionalism. They're going to have to take continuing education once they have their license. Even more importantly, before they get their license, they will be -- there will be education requirements so that they are -- they get that education. They have to pass an exam and they will continue to take ongoing licensing and school credits as they keep that license. So, it's bringing a bit more professionalism to that industry. I don't think we have bad people for the most part in that industry. There is some bad people. We need to raise the level of professionalism and education in that industry. Since it is such a significant investment we will make. I'm hoping this bill will be the next logical step in dealing with that.

>>Ted Simons:
What kind of criminal and or civil penalties are you talking about in your bill?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
A couple of things. A class 6 felony for not adhering to the requirements of the -- once you form -- once you're licensed, just like in real estate, once that commissioner starts saying, hey, i'm having problems with the way you're doing business, i am going to revoke or suspend your license, once you put that in place, it will make people more aware that i do have a responsibility here to the public and i do need to be careful or i could lose my license. That license is how i make a living in that industry. Having that license, people overlooking that industry and how people are conducting themselves will make a major difference in the kind of product and service we're giving our consumers in the state of arizona.

>> Ted Simons:
How much opposition are you hearing so far from this?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
With my colleagues in the republican parties, concern about regulation. Just like in the real estate industry a few decades where the time had come to regulate it and license, the time has come in this industry to regulate and have licensing. We have had a major economic crash in this country due to mortgages and related problems in the mortgage industry. There is a lot -- is it all about the salesman? No, but it is part of puzzle. We will have opposition. 28 other states have said this is the way to go. Arizona shouldn't be the last on board. We will work hard and hopefully get that legislation through this year.

>>Ted Simons:
Thanks for joining us.

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
Thank you.

>>Ted Simons:
Tomorrow governor Janet Napolitano joins horizon for her regular visit to discuss issues such as the state budget, the employer sanctions law, and her endorsement of presidential candidate Barack Obama. That's Wednesday on "horizon." Thursday we talk with several leaders about improving --

>>Ted Simons:
Thursday we talk with several leaders about improving education, and friday another edition of the "journalists' roundtable." that's it for now. I'm Ted Simons. You have a great evening.

>> Anouncer:
"Horizon" is made possible by contributions from the friends of eight, members of your arizona pbs station. Thank you

>>Ted Simons:
Tonight on "Horizon," we'll talk to a local economist about how bad things are. Senator john mccain does well in his home state, and hillary clinton is most popular among arizona democrats. The results of the latest Cronkite Eight poll. A state lawmaker introduces several bills that could revise the employer sanctions law. We'll talk to him about his bills. And a new bill will soon be introduced to license those who sell mortgages. We'll talk to the sponsor of the bill. That's next on "Horizon." "Horizon" is made possible by contributions of the friends of eight, members of your arizona pbs station. Thank you.

>>Ted Simons:
Hello and welcome to "Horizon." I'm Ted Simons. The Federal Reserve slashes the federal funds rate by three-quarters of a percent. Wall street takes a 465-point plunge minutes into trading, but then recovers most of that loss. Work to pass an economic -- scurry to pass an economic stimulus plan. That's just the economic news from today. Here to talk about it is Arizona State University Economist Tracy Clark.

>>Ted Simons:
Are we headed for a recession, coming out of a recession --

>> Tracy Clark:
I think we're in one. And it is probably a little bit worse here than it is for the nation as a whole, just because we've had more impact from the housing downturn than other parts of the country.

>>Ted Simons:
How long do recessions usually last?

>> Tracy Clark:
Usually maybe two quarters, like six months, or maybe three quarters, nine months. Thankfully mostly upturns last longer than downturns. We're probably going to see weakness in 2008 and then start seeing some signs of improvement as we go into 2009.

>> Ted Simons:
Unemployment rates seem reasonable. The interest rates seem reasonable. People are working. People apparently are borrowing, some of these signs seem like things should be better than they are. What's going on?

>> Tracy Clark:
Well, there is a credit crunch. That's one of the big problems. The other problem, of course, consumers aren't spending as much as they were because they can't refinance their house. They feel uncertain about the economy, and when that spending goes down, the economy goes down.

>> Ted Simons:
Can consumers spend their way -- can we all spend our way out of this situation?

>> Tracy Clark:
I think that probably the answer to that is in the short run no because one of the big problems, of course, is that everyone's racked up quite a bit of debt. Disposable income, almost 14\% -- we used to scream bloody murder when it got to 12. People need to get their balance sheets back in order before the economy can really start moving forward again.

>> Ted Simons:
Does that mean the economic stimulus plan is a nice idea? What kind of stimulus plan would work, do you think?

>>Tracy Clark:
I don't think there is any stimulus plan that would prevent us from having the economic slow down that we have. The economic stimulus plans that they're discussing, as long as they're implemented rapidly could make the downturn shorter. But there is -- there isn't enough money to make the problem go away tomorrow.

>> Ted Simons:
And how long would an economic stimulus plan take before it started affecting things?

>> Tracy Clark:
If they implement it rapidly and they get the money into people's hands, if those people then spend the money, you know, that impact would be pretty much immediate. It's just that the hole is pretty big, and we -- this will just keep us from going deeper and then it will be a little bit easier to climb out of the rest of it.

>> Ted Simons:
The fed action today cutting interest rates, how much does that affect things in general and in particular folks looking at mortgages? Does it make that much of a difference?

>>Tracy Clark:
It doesn't really impact what's going to happen with a lot of people's mortgages. What it does do, and the reason i think they did it was to get everyone's attention. They saw that the international equity markets were going down. They assumed, quite rightly, that national equity markets were probably going to go down. They had to do something dramatic to get people's attention and say, hey, we're on top of this. Don't panic. And that's what they did.

>> Ted Simons:
And that brings me to my next question which is how much of what we're talking about right now underlying everything is psychological?

>> Tracy Clark:
Almost always in economics there is a fairly large component that's psychological. Obviously there are some problems in the economy. Too much debt, overvalued assets in the housing market, but if the psychology was different, if the psychology was the same as it was six or eight months ago, this would only be a blip in the road. As it is, because the psychology is so negative, it's turning into a recession.

>> Ted Simons:
Arizona Senator John McCain leads the pack by quite a bit in Arizona. And Hillary Clinton has a big lead among democrats in our state. Those are the results of the latest cronkite eight poll. The poll was conducted by the Walter Cronkite school of journalism and mass communication at Arizona state university and eight TV. January 17th through the 20th. In two separate polls, we interviewed 375 republicans and 366 democrats who are most likely to vote. The margin of error for republicans is 5\%, 5.1\% for democrats. Here are the results.

>> Mike Sauceda:
We asked those who will vote for a particular candidate why they will vote for that person. 21\% of those who plan to vote for McCain say they like his views, 16\% said he was experienced, qualified, 14 percent cited his military background, with other reasons following into the single digit category. Of those who plan to vote for Romney, 40\% cite conservative credentials, 18\% his business background, 12\% thinks he is the best candidate running. For huckabee, 15\% like his views, 10\% think he is honest. Among democrats who plan to vote for a particular candidate, 38 like clinton because of her experience, 30\% views of issues, think her husband will be a help for her, 9\% said we need a woman president with others getting single digit responses. Those who plan to vote for Obama, 47\% like his vision for change, 10\% believe in him, 10\% think he is a smart person, other reasons registering single digit responses. 40\% of those who plan to vote for John Edwards say he is a right candidate for the times, other reasons receiving smaller responses.

>> Ted Simons:
Here to talk about the results of the latest poll, its Director Dr. Bruce merrill and associate director tara blanc.

>> Bruce Merrill:
John McCain is on a role. A lot of good news out of new hampshire, south carolina, he has solidified his vote here. On the democratic site, consistently Hillary Clinton has had about an 18, 20 percentage point advantage over obama. We found the same thing in this poll. This poll is among those most likely to vote. I think that she does well simply because she is kind of the party person here. She has been in politics a long time. Traditional voter is a party-oriented person. Obama supporters are more likely to be nontraditional than young people. Hillary has the lead clearly with two weeks to go.

>> Ted Simons:
Considering the voters surveyed here, the ones most likely to vote, two weeks before the primary, 20\% still undecided, unusual?

>> Tara Blanc:
Perhaps a little unusual. It could be partly because of the number of candidates that are out there, and also with the ups and downs of the primaries. You know, John mccain went in and started the win -- Obama came in and won off the top, and then Clinton came back and it has been back and forth, back and forth. Some people are watching what's happening around the country and waiting to see how the wind blows to make up their own mind, or to go -- they might like one candidate for one reason, another candidate for another and see how it all shakes out before they make up their mind.

>>Ted Simons:
For those leaning toward one candidate or another, how does that play into the whole dynamic?

>> Tara Blank:
What we found we asked people the question in two parts. First we asked if they were firm on their decision about who they wanted to vote for. Then we asked who that was. If they said they weren't firm, we asked who they were leaning toward. We have two types of responses. And the people that are firm in their decision formed a smaller percentage, and that larger pool of undecided, you have a little less -- leeway there, and so if you really are looking at the people who have decided, I mean, that firm, solid, not going to change their minds. Undecided, there may be play there. Although, if they have named a candidate, even if they are just leaning towards them, usually that means they have made up their mind. It would take a lot to get them to change. They are just waiting to see just to be sure.

>> Ted Simons:
I thought it was interesting, Bruce, to see how many people thought senator Clinton was their firm choice because of president Clinton.

>> Bruce Merrill:
Absolutely. The two things that were interesting that did come out in the poll, 12\% for all of the reasons given for supporting Hillary Clinton was because we like Bill Clinton. It is like a two-for. If you vote for Hillary, you are getting bill. People forget he was a very popular president. With the economy getting bad, I think for some people it is reassuring to know that she can go home and talk to somebody that's been there, and done it, and i think it helps.

>> Ted Simons:
Governor Napolitano comes out endorsing Barack Obama. Any idea how much influence that will be?

>> Bruce Merrill:
Almost none. It takes nothing away from the governor. A great deal of academic research that shows endorsements rarely have any significant impact, and the reason is that governor Napolitano is well liked in Arizona, she is one of the most popular governors we've ever had, but even if she endorsed obama, some people don't like being told how they're going to vote. I don't think it is a factor in the outcome. There are just too many other factors that are bigger factors.

>>Ted Simons:
The economy a big factor honestly in a lot of ways. Governor McCain came out saying I don't know that much about the economy, which is straight talk --

>>Tara Blanc:
When times are tough, we have an economy that looks like it is going south. Problems in Iraq. All of these things that are going on. A lot of times people looking for leadership and people with experience. That is likely going to be Hillary Clinton's edge, because she has been there, she has done that. She not only has the back-up of Bill Clinton, in the senate, politics for a long time, McCain also has that. I suspect that you would see Hillary Clinton would have a different story to tell if asked the same question.

>>Ted Simons:
Thank you so much for joining us. Appreciate it.

>> Bruce Merrill:
Glad to be here.

>> Ted Simons:
Seven bills that would make changes to Arizona's employer sanctions law have been introduced at the state legislature. One, a correction to make state law match up with federal law is already making progress. In a moment, i'll talk to the sponsor of the majority of proposed legislation. Here's a quick look at the bills.

>> Mike Sauceda:
Reference to federal law. Bill as passed makes a reference to the wrong federal law. House bill 2342 would make it clear that independent contractors are not subject to the law because they are not employees. House bill 2343 would require that any complaints be made in writing. Contain the full name and address of the person complaining. Right now the law allows anonymous complaints. The bill would ban discrimination as a motive for filing a complaint. House bill 2344 would make it tougher to prosecute an employer by changing the definition of knowingly hiring an illegal worker to the phrase have actual or constructive knowledge that the person is an unauthorized alien. It would raise the level of proof for a conviction to beyond a reasonable doubt. 2345 would take the state attorney general out of the enforcement equation. 2346 would make it clear that the law applies only to new hires. Here to tell us more is Bill Konopnicki.

>> Ted Simons:
Here to tell us more is republican state representative, Bill Konopnicki. Bill, thanks for joining us.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Thanks Ted, thanks for having me on.

>> Ted Simons:
Why did you decide to lead the way on this.

>> Quick history on hospital 2779 it was done the tuesday before we ended the session. The governor when she signed it said there need to be fixes in the bill. What these bills are, are a representation of those things that needed to be fixed.

>>Ted Simons:
you voted for the bill, correct?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
I did.

>> Ted Simons:
Was that a mistake?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Yes, it was. We were told there would be an initiative. Told we would have an opportunity to fix some of the problems of the bill, it would apply from this point moving forward not retroactively backwards.

>> Ted Simons:
You are mentioning, trying to figure out if this deals with new hires only.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Yes, that is the idea. You wouldn't go back retroactively, the employers who employed these people, could not use any other methods to e-verify, it is illegal to do that.

>>Ted Simons:
Was that something to do when the bill was first presented, the word employ is getting a lot of attention right now, is this something that people didn't realize would have this much ambiguity?

>> Bill Konopnicki.:
I think so. People didn't have much of a chance to look at the bill. The definitions of things like employ, we did not have the opportunity to vet those and be able to decide what that meant.

>>Ted Simons:
You own Mcdonald's restaurants.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
I do. Minority owner, my son is the majority owner of those.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Directly, i don't think it will have any direct impact, other than it costs more money to verify all of the employees that we have as we hire them and make sure that we have the regulation in place that we can meet the standards. Most businessmen in the state of Arizona try to comply with the law. They file the i-9's, get the information, try to be compliant with the law. What the intent originally of the bill was to look at those people who have no idea of following the law and are openly and blatantly violating the law.

>>Ted Simons:
Is that another reason why another bill would make e-verify optional instead of required?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
If you have -- you can't choose to -- the idea would hold a carrot out there, if you e-verify, you will have the ability to have a burden of proof against you that you wouldn't have the other way. The way it is now everybody has to do e-verify and a lot of people are choosing not to do that, and it is to change it from a stick to a carrot.

>> Ted Simons:
How much traction is that getting?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
It will have some traction. A lot of response by a lot of people. The thing that happens is that we have people opposed to making these changes dealing on emotion and not dealing with logic and fact. We want people to e-verify. We want them to have a reason to be able to comply with the law and not look for reasons to circumvent the law.

>>Ted Simons:
Another one of your bills, 2342 exempt independent contractors from the law. Why is that necessary?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
So many different businesses around the state hire independent contractors to do their business now. It's one thing to make you verify your own employees, but when you start dipping into independent contractors, you have to reach far to verify those individuals. You have no control over them.

>> Ted Simons:
Another one of your bills would make it tougher in terms of the burden of proof. Verbiage, knowingly hiring to actual or constructive knowledge.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
What happens is the consequences of these bills, somebody losing their income, life savings, if all of their employees have lost their jobs. Bank note, foreclosure on the hands. If you are going to enforce the law, you want to make sure that you absolutely positively have somebody that is violating the law.

>> Ted Simons:
From the critics point of view, it seems that this is just a way to gut the law. How would you respond?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
If the individuals would read the bills, they would see that these are strengthening the law, removing some of the problems. Put teeth in the employer sanction bill so it can be enforced. Emotion piece, oh, he is trying to tear the law down. In fact we're trying to do -- the citizens want something that is enforceable. These bills make that law more enforceable.

>> Ted Simons:
Is there not a threat, public relations is everything, if you think they're trying to gut it, then here comes the initiative process again.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
The initiative process never went away. It's still around. The thing that makes it difficult a lot of these people are dealing with emotion. They don't want to deal with the fact. They want these things struck down.

>> Ted Simons:
Odds that these things are going to get through?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Well, as a package, all of them won't get through. Individual bills have a high probability and some have 50/50 chance.

>>Ted Simons:
Thank you for joining us.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Thanks for having me.

>>Ted Simons:
Those who sell mortgages carry a huge responsibility. They sell you the biggest purchase of your life. Yet in our state, mortgage sellers are not licensed. A state lawmaker will soon introduce a bill to change that. I talked to senator Jay Tibshraeny about his new mortgage seller licensing bill.

>> Ted Simons:
And senator, thank you for joining us.

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
Thanks for having me this evening.

>> Ted Simons:
You will soon introduce a bill that will license mortgage sellers. Why is this important?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
It is important for many reasons. We have had a meltdown in the mortgage industry for many reasons. Last year i ran mortgage fraud legislation, making certain offenses a crime, and a serious crime. There is no licensing of people who sell you your mortgage. If you go buy a house or piece of ground, that real estate agent is licensed, as is his broker, stocks, bonds, that person is licensed but in the mortgage industry, in this case of Arizona, there is no licensing of the person selling you that mortgage which is a major investment that you will undertake in your lifetime.

>>Ted Simons:
You mentioned bankers and brokers are regulated, sellers aren't. How did we get to that decision?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
That's a good question. 28 other states do license the salesmen and the brokers. In Arizona only the bankers and brokers. That is a system whose time needs to come to an end in terms of now we need to take the next logical step and we need to license the people selling that. That's why -- that is the whole impetus behind this idea, license the people selling the mortgages to us.

>> Ted Simons:
What are some of the problems that you have seen that crop up because these folks aren't licensed?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
Some of the problems you are seeing is they're putting people into loans that they're maybe not qualified for. They're putting them into loans where they don't explain to them all of the terms. They're putting them in loans to where they're -- it just may not be suited to that buyer. What we will do by licensing people selling that mortgage, a different level of professionalism. They're going to have to take continuing education once they have their license. Even more importantly, before they get their license, they will be -- there will be education requirements so that they are -- they get that education. They have to pass an exam and they will continue to take ongoing licensing and school credits as they keep that license. So, it's bringing a bit more professionalism to that industry. I don't think we have bad people for the most part in that industry. There is some bad people. We need to raise the level of professionalism and education in that industry. Since it is such a significant investment we will make. I'm hoping this bill will be the next logical step in dealing with that.

>>Ted Simons:
What kind of criminal and or civil penalties are you talking about in your bill?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
A couple of things. A class 6 felony for not adhering to the requirements of the -- once you form -- once you're licensed, just like in real estate, once that commissioner starts saying, hey, i'm having problems with the way you're doing business, i am going to revoke or suspend your license, once you put that in place, it will make people more aware that i do have a responsibility here to the public and i do need to be careful or i could lose my license. That license is how i make a living in that industry. Having that license, people overlooking that industry and how people are conducting themselves will make a major difference in the kind of product and service we're giving our consumers in the state of arizona.

>> Ted Simons:
How much opposition are you hearing so far from this?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
With my colleagues in the republican parties, concern about regulation. Just like in the real estate industry a few decades where the time had come to regulate it and license, the time has come in this industry to regulate and have licensing. We have had a major economic crash in this country due to mortgages and related problems in the mortgage industry. There is a lot -- is it all about the salesman? No, but it is part of puzzle. We will have opposition. 28 other states have said this is the way to go. Arizona shouldn't be the last on board. We will work hard and hopefully get that legislation through this year.

>>Ted Simons:
Thanks for joining us.

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
Thank you.

>>Ted Simons:
Tomorrow governor Janet Napolitano joins horizon for her regular visit to discuss issues such as the state budget, the employer sanctions law, and her endorsement of presidential candidate Barack Obama. That's Wednesday on "horizon." Thursday we talk with several leaders about improving --

>>Ted Simons:
Thursday we talk with several leaders about improving education, and friday another edition of the "journalists' roundtable." that's it for now. I'm Ted Simons. You have a great evening.

>> Anouncer:
"Horizon" is made possible by contributions from the friends of eight, members of your arizona pbs station. Thank you

>>Ted Simons:
Tonight on "Horizon," we'll talk to a local economist about how bad things are. Senator john mccain does well in his home state, and hillary clinton is most popular among arizona democrats. The results of the latest Cronkite Eight poll. A state lawmaker introduces several bills that could revise the employer sanctions law. We'll talk to him about his bills. And a new bill will soon be introduced to license those who sell mortgages. We'll talk to the sponsor of the bill. That's next on "Horizon." "Horizon" is made possible by contributions of the friends of eight, members of your arizona pbs station. Thank you.

>>Ted Simons:
Hello and welcome to "Horizon." I'm Ted Simons. The Federal Reserve slashes the federal funds rate by three-quarters of a percent. Wall street takes a 465-point plunge minutes into trading, but then recovers most of that loss. Work to pass an economic -- scurry to pass an economic stimulus plan. That's just the economic news from today. Here to talk about it is Arizona State University Economist Tracy Clark.

>>Ted Simons:
Are we headed for a recession, coming out of a recession --

>> Tracy Clark:
I think we're in one. And it is probably a little bit worse here than it is for the nation as a whole, just because we've had more impact from the housing downturn than other parts of the country.

>>Ted Simons:
How long do recessions usually last?

>> Tracy Clark:
Usually maybe two quarters, like six months, or maybe three quarters, nine months. Thankfully mostly upturns last longer than downturns. We're probably going to see weakness in 2008 and then start seeing some signs of improvement as we go into 2009.

>> Ted Simons:
Unemployment rates seem reasonable. The interest rates seem reasonable. People are working. People apparently are borrowing, some of these signs seem like things should be better than they are. What's going on?

>> Tracy Clark:
Well, there is a credit crunch. That's one of the big problems. The other problem, of course, consumers aren't spending as much as they were because they can't refinance their house. They feel uncertain about the economy, and when that spending goes down, the economy goes down.

>> Ted Simons:
Can consumers spend their way -- can we all spend our way out of this situation?

>> Tracy Clark:
I think that probably the answer to that is in the short run no because one of the big problems, of course, is that everyone's racked up quite a bit of debt. Disposable income, almost 14\% -- we used to scream bloody murder when it got to 12. People need to get their balance sheets back in order before the economy can really start moving forward again.

>> Ted Simons:
Does that mean the economic stimulus plan is a nice idea? What kind of stimulus plan would work, do you think?

>>Tracy Clark:
I don't think there is any stimulus plan that would prevent us from having the economic slow down that we have. The economic stimulus plans that they're discussing, as long as they're implemented rapidly could make the downturn shorter. But there is -- there isn't enough money to make the problem go away tomorrow.

>> Ted Simons:
And how long would an economic stimulus plan take before it started affecting things?

>> Tracy Clark:
If they implement it rapidly and they get the money into people's hands, if those people then spend the money, you know, that impact would be pretty much immediate. It's just that the hole is pretty big, and we -- this will just keep us from going deeper and then it will be a little bit easier to climb out of the rest of it.

>> Ted Simons:
The fed action today cutting interest rates, how much does that affect things in general and in particular folks looking at mortgages? Does it make that much of a difference?

>>Tracy Clark:
It doesn't really impact what's going to happen with a lot of people's mortgages. What it does do, and the reason i think they did it was to get everyone's attention. They saw that the international equity markets were going down. They assumed, quite rightly, that national equity markets were probably going to go down. They had to do something dramatic to get people's attention and say, hey, we're on top of this. Don't panic. And that's what they did.

>> Ted Simons:
And that brings me to my next question which is how much of what we're talking about right now underlying everything is psychological?

>> Tracy Clark:
Almost always in economics there is a fairly large component that's psychological. Obviously there are some problems in the economy. Too much debt, overvalued assets in the housing market, but if the psychology was different, if the psychology was the same as it was six or eight months ago, this would only be a blip in the road. As it is, because the psychology is so negative, it's turning into a recession.

>> Ted Simons:
Arizona Senator John McCain leads the pack by quite a bit in Arizona. And Hillary Clinton has a big lead among democrats in our state. Those are the results of the latest cronkite eight poll. The poll was conducted by the Walter Cronkite school of journalism and mass communication at Arizona state university and eight TV. January 17th through the 20th. In two separate polls, we interviewed 375 republicans and 366 democrats who are most likely to vote. The margin of error for republicans is 5\%, 5.1\% for democrats. Here are the results.

>> Mike Sauceda:
We asked those who will vote for a particular candidate why they will vote for that person. 21\% of those who plan to vote for McCain say they like his views, 16\% said he was experienced, qualified, 14 percent cited his military background, with other reasons following into the single digit category. Of those who plan to vote for Romney, 40\% cite conservative credentials, 18\% his business background, 12\% thinks he is the best candidate running. For huckabee, 15\% like his views, 10\% think he is honest. Among democrats who plan to vote for a particular candidate, 38 like clinton because of her experience, 30\% views of issues, think her husband will be a help for her, 9\% said we need a woman president with others getting single digit responses. Those who plan to vote for Obama, 47\% like his vision for change, 10\% believe in him, 10\% think he is a smart person, other reasons registering single digit responses. 40\% of those who plan to vote for John Edwards say he is a right candidate for the times, other reasons receiving smaller responses.

>> Ted Simons:
Here to talk about the results of the latest poll, its Director Dr. Bruce merrill and associate director tara blanc.

>> Bruce Merrill:
John McCain is on a role. A lot of good news out of new hampshire, south carolina, he has solidified his vote here. On the democratic site, consistently Hillary Clinton has had about an 18, 20 percentage point advantage over obama. We found the same thing in this poll. This poll is among those most likely to vote. I think that she does well simply because she is kind of the party person here. She has been in politics a long time. Traditional voter is a party-oriented person. Obama supporters are more likely to be nontraditional than young people. Hillary has the lead clearly with two weeks to go.

>> Ted Simons:
Considering the voters surveyed here, the ones most likely to vote, two weeks before the primary, 20\% still undecided, unusual?

>> Tara Blanc:
Perhaps a little unusual. It could be partly because of the number of candidates that are out there, and also with the ups and downs of the primaries. You know, John mccain went in and started the win -- Obama came in and won off the top, and then Clinton came back and it has been back and forth, back and forth. Some people are watching what's happening around the country and waiting to see how the wind blows to make up their own mind, or to go -- they might like one candidate for one reason, another candidate for another and see how it all shakes out before they make up their mind.

>>Ted Simons:
For those leaning toward one candidate or another, how does that play into the whole dynamic?

>> Tara Blank:
What we found we asked people the question in two parts. First we asked if they were firm on their decision about who they wanted to vote for. Then we asked who that was. If they said they weren't firm, we asked who they were leaning toward. We have two types of responses. And the people that are firm in their decision formed a smaller percentage, and that larger pool of undecided, you have a little less -- leeway there, and so if you really are looking at the people who have decided, I mean, that firm, solid, not going to change their minds. Undecided, there may be play there. Although, if they have named a candidate, even if they are just leaning towards them, usually that means they have made up their mind. It would take a lot to get them to change. They are just waiting to see just to be sure.

>> Ted Simons:
I thought it was interesting, Bruce, to see how many people thought senator Clinton was their firm choice because of president Clinton.

>> Bruce Merrill:
Absolutely. The two things that were interesting that did come out in the poll, 12\% for all of the reasons given for supporting Hillary Clinton was because we like Bill Clinton. It is like a two-for. If you vote for Hillary, you are getting bill. People forget he was a very popular president. With the economy getting bad, I think for some people it is reassuring to know that she can go home and talk to somebody that's been there, and done it, and i think it helps.

>> Ted Simons:
Governor Napolitano comes out endorsing Barack Obama. Any idea how much influence that will be?

>> Bruce Merrill:
Almost none. It takes nothing away from the governor. A great deal of academic research that shows endorsements rarely have any significant impact, and the reason is that governor Napolitano is well liked in Arizona, she is one of the most popular governors we've ever had, but even if she endorsed obama, some people don't like being told how they're going to vote. I don't think it is a factor in the outcome. There are just too many other factors that are bigger factors.

>>Ted Simons:
The economy a big factor honestly in a lot of ways. Governor McCain came out saying I don't know that much about the economy, which is straight talk --

>>Tara Blanc:
When times are tough, we have an economy that looks like it is going south. Problems in Iraq. All of these things that are going on. A lot of times people looking for leadership and people with experience. That is likely going to be Hillary Clinton's edge, because she has been there, she has done that. She not only has the back-up of Bill Clinton, in the senate, politics for a long time, McCain also has that. I suspect that you would see Hillary Clinton would have a different story to tell if asked the same question.

>>Ted Simons:
Thank you so much for joining us. Appreciate it.

>> Bruce Merrill:
Glad to be here.

>> Ted Simons:
Seven bills that would make changes to Arizona's employer sanctions law have been introduced at the state legislature. One, a correction to make state law match up with federal law is already making progress. In a moment, i'll talk to the sponsor of the majority of proposed legislation. Here's a quick look at the bills.

>> Mike Sauceda:
Reference to federal law. Bill as passed makes a reference to the wrong federal law. House bill 2342 would make it clear that independent contractors are not subject to the law because they are not employees. House bill 2343 would require that any complaints be made in writing. Contain the full name and address of the person complaining. Right now the law allows anonymous complaints. The bill would ban discrimination as a motive for filing a complaint. House bill 2344 would make it tougher to prosecute an employer by changing the definition of knowingly hiring an illegal worker to the phrase have actual or constructive knowledge that the person is an unauthorized alien. It would raise the level of proof for a conviction to beyond a reasonable doubt. 2345 would take the state attorney general out of the enforcement equation. 2346 would make it clear that the law applies only to new hires. Here to tell us more is Bill Konopnicki.

>> Ted Simons:
Here to tell us more is republican state representative, Bill Konopnicki. Bill, thanks for joining us.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Thanks Ted, thanks for having me on.

>> Ted Simons:
Why did you decide to lead the way on this.

>> Quick history on hospital 2779 it was done the tuesday before we ended the session. The governor when she signed it said there need to be fixes in the bill. What these bills are, are a representation of those things that needed to be fixed.

>>Ted Simons:
you voted for the bill, correct?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
I did.

>> Ted Simons:
Was that a mistake?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Yes, it was. We were told there would be an initiative. Told we would have an opportunity to fix some of the problems of the bill, it would apply from this point moving forward not retroactively backwards.

>> Ted Simons:
You are mentioning, trying to figure out if this deals with new hires only.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Yes, that is the idea. You wouldn't go back retroactively, the employers who employed these people, could not use any other methods to e-verify, it is illegal to do that.

>>Ted Simons:
Was that something to do when the bill was first presented, the word employ is getting a lot of attention right now, is this something that people didn't realize would have this much ambiguity?

>> Bill Konopnicki.:
I think so. People didn't have much of a chance to look at the bill. The definitions of things like employ, we did not have the opportunity to vet those and be able to decide what that meant.

>>Ted Simons:
You own Mcdonald's restaurants.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
I do. Minority owner, my son is the majority owner of those.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Directly, i don't think it will have any direct impact, other than it costs more money to verify all of the employees that we have as we hire them and make sure that we have the regulation in place that we can meet the standards. Most businessmen in the state of Arizona try to comply with the law. They file the i-9's, get the information, try to be compliant with the law. What the intent originally of the bill was to look at those people who have no idea of following the law and are openly and blatantly violating the law.

>>Ted Simons:
Is that another reason why another bill would make e-verify optional instead of required?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
If you have -- you can't choose to -- the idea would hold a carrot out there, if you e-verify, you will have the ability to have a burden of proof against you that you wouldn't have the other way. The way it is now everybody has to do e-verify and a lot of people are choosing not to do that, and it is to change it from a stick to a carrot.

>> Ted Simons:
How much traction is that getting?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
It will have some traction. A lot of response by a lot of people. The thing that happens is that we have people opposed to making these changes dealing on emotion and not dealing with logic and fact. We want people to e-verify. We want them to have a reason to be able to comply with the law and not look for reasons to circumvent the law.

>>Ted Simons:
Another one of your bills, 2342 exempt independent contractors from the law. Why is that necessary?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
So many different businesses around the state hire independent contractors to do their business now. It's one thing to make you verify your own employees, but when you start dipping into independent contractors, you have to reach far to verify those individuals. You have no control over them.

>> Ted Simons:
Another one of your bills would make it tougher in terms of the burden of proof. Verbiage, knowingly hiring to actual or constructive knowledge.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
What happens is the consequences of these bills, somebody losing their income, life savings, if all of their employees have lost their jobs. Bank note, foreclosure on the hands. If you are going to enforce the law, you want to make sure that you absolutely positively have somebody that is violating the law.

>> Ted Simons:
From the critics point of view, it seems that this is just a way to gut the law. How would you respond?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
If the individuals would read the bills, they would see that these are strengthening the law, removing some of the problems. Put teeth in the employer sanction bill so it can be enforced. Emotion piece, oh, he is trying to tear the law down. In fact we're trying to do -- the citizens want something that is enforceable. These bills make that law more enforceable.

>> Ted Simons:
Is there not a threat, public relations is everything, if you think they're trying to gut it, then here comes the initiative process again.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
The initiative process never went away. It's still around. The thing that makes it difficult a lot of these people are dealing with emotion. They don't want to deal with the fact. They want these things struck down.

>> Ted Simons:
Odds that these things are going to get through?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Well, as a package, all of them won't get through. Individual bills have a high probability and some have 50/50 chance.

>>Ted Simons:
Thank you for joining us.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Thanks for having me.

>>Ted Simons:
Those who sell mortgages carry a huge responsibility. They sell you the biggest purchase of your life. Yet in our state, mortgage sellers are not licensed. A state lawmaker will soon introduce a bill to change that. I talked to senator Jay Tibshraeny about his new mortgage seller licensing bill.

>> Ted Simons:
And senator, thank you for joining us.

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
Thanks for having me this evening.

>> Ted Simons:
You will soon introduce a bill that will license mortgage sellers. Why is this important?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
It is important for many reasons. We have had a meltdown in the mortgage industry for many reasons. Last year i ran mortgage fraud legislation, making certain offenses a crime, and a serious crime. There is no licensing of people who sell you your mortgage. If you go buy a house or piece of ground, that real estate agent is licensed, as is his broker, stocks, bonds, that person is licensed but in the mortgage industry, in this case of Arizona, there is no licensing of the person selling you that mortgage which is a major investment that you will undertake in your lifetime.

>>Ted Simons:
You mentioned bankers and brokers are regulated, sellers aren't. How did we get to that decision?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
That's a good question. 28 other states do license the salesmen and the brokers. In Arizona only the bankers and brokers. That is a system whose time needs to come to an end in terms of now we need to take the next logical step and we need to license the people selling that. That's why -- that is the whole impetus behind this idea, license the people selling the mortgages to us.

>> Ted Simons:
What are some of the problems that you have seen that crop up because these folks aren't licensed?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
Some of the problems you are seeing is they're putting people into loans that they're maybe not qualified for. They're putting them into loans where they don't explain to them all of the terms. They're putting them in loans to where they're -- it just may not be suited to that buyer. What we will do by licensing people selling that mortgage, a different level of professionalism. They're going to have to take continuing education once they have their license. Even more importantly, before they get their license, they will be -- there will be education requirements so that they are -- they get that education. They have to pass an exam and they will continue to take ongoing licensing and school credits as they keep that license. So, it's bringing a bit more professionalism to that industry. I don't think we have bad people for the most part in that industry. There is some bad people. We need to raise the level of professionalism and education in that industry. Since it is such a significant investment we will make. I'm hoping this bill will be the next logical step in dealing with that.

>>Ted Simons:
What kind of criminal and or civil penalties are you talking about in your bill?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
A couple of things. A class 6 felony for not adhering to the requirements of the -- once you form -- once you're licensed, just like in real estate, once that commissioner starts saying, hey, i'm having problems with the way you're doing business, i am going to revoke or suspend your license, once you put that in place, it will make people more aware that i do have a responsibility here to the public and i do need to be careful or i could lose my license. That license is how i make a living in that industry. Having that license, people overlooking that industry and how people are conducting themselves will make a major difference in the kind of product and service we're giving our consumers in the state of arizona.

>> Ted Simons:
How much opposition are you hearing so far from this?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
With my colleagues in the republican parties, concern about regulation. Just like in the real estate industry a few decades where the time had come to regulate it and license, the time has come in this industry to regulate and have licensing. We have had a major economic crash in this country due to mortgages and related problems in the mortgage industry. There is a lot -- is it all about the salesman? No, but it is part of puzzle. We will have opposition. 28 other states have said this is the way to go. Arizona shouldn't be the last on board. We will work hard and hopefully get that legislation through this year.

>>Ted Simons:
Thanks for joining us.

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
Thank you.

>>Ted Simons:
Tomorrow governor Janet Napolitano joins horizon for her regular visit to discuss issues such as the state budget, the employer sanctions law, and her endorsement of presidential candidate Barack Obama. That's Wednesday on "horizon." Thursday we talk with several leaders about improving --

>>Ted Simons:
Thursday we talk with several leaders about improving education, and friday another edition of the "journalists' roundtable." that's it for now. I'm Ted Simons. You have a great evening.

>> Anouncer:
"Horizon" is made possible by contributions from the friends of eight, members of your arizona pbs station. Thank you

Mortgage Seller Licensing

Did you know that people who sell mortgages in Arizona don't have to be licensed? State Senator Jay Tibshraeny has introduced a bill that would require licensing, education and regulation for those who sell mortgages.

>>Ted Simons:
Tonight on "Horizon," we'll talk to a local economist about how bad things are. Senator john mccain does well in his home state, and hillary clinton is most popular among arizona democrats. The results of the latest Cronkite Eight poll. A state lawmaker introduces several bills that could revise the employer sanctions law. We'll talk to him about his bills. And a new bill will soon be introduced to license those who sell mortgages. We'll talk to the sponsor of the bill. That's next on "Horizon." "Horizon" is made possible by contributions of the friends of eight, members of your arizona pbs station. Thank you.

>>Ted Simons:
Hello and welcome to "Horizon." I'm Ted Simons. The Federal Reserve slashes the federal funds rate by three-quarters of a percent. Wall street takes a 465-point plunge minutes into trading, but then recovers most of that loss. Work to pass an economic -- scurry to pass an economic stimulus plan. That's just the economic news from today. Here to talk about it is Arizona State University Economist Tracy Clark.

>>Ted Simons:
Are we headed for a recession, coming out of a recession --

>> Tracy Clark:
I think we're in one. And it is probably a little bit worse here than it is for the nation as a whole, just because we've had more impact from the housing downturn than other parts of the country.

>>Ted Simons:
How long do recessions usually last?

>> Tracy Clark:
Usually maybe two quarters, like six months, or maybe three quarters, nine months. Thankfully mostly upturns last longer than downturns. We're probably going to see weakness in 2008 and then start seeing some signs of improvement as we go into 2009.

>> Ted Simons:
Unemployment rates seem reasonable. The interest rates seem reasonable. People are working. People apparently are borrowing, some of these signs seem like things should be better than they are. What's going on?

>> Tracy Clark:
Well, there is a credit crunch. That's one of the big problems. The other problem, of course, consumers aren't spending as much as they were because they can't refinance their house. They feel uncertain about the economy, and when that spending goes down, the economy goes down.

>> Ted Simons:
Can consumers spend their way -- can we all spend our way out of this situation?

>> Tracy Clark:
I think that probably the answer to that is in the short run no because one of the big problems, of course, is that everyone's racked up quite a bit of debt. Disposable income, almost 14\% -- we used to scream bloody murder when it got to 12. People need to get their balance sheets back in order before the economy can really start moving forward again.

>> Ted Simons:
Does that mean the economic stimulus plan is a nice idea? What kind of stimulus plan would work, do you think?

>>Tracy Clark:
I don't think there is any stimulus plan that would prevent us from having the economic slow down that we have. The economic stimulus plans that they're discussing, as long as they're implemented rapidly could make the downturn shorter. But there is -- there isn't enough money to make the problem go away tomorrow.

>> Ted Simons:
And how long would an economic stimulus plan take before it started affecting things?

>> Tracy Clark:
If they implement it rapidly and they get the money into people's hands, if those people then spend the money, you know, that impact would be pretty much immediate. It's just that the hole is pretty big, and we -- this will just keep us from going deeper and then it will be a little bit easier to climb out of the rest of it.

>> Ted Simons:
The fed action today cutting interest rates, how much does that affect things in general and in particular folks looking at mortgages? Does it make that much of a difference?

>>Tracy Clark:
It doesn't really impact what's going to happen with a lot of people's mortgages. What it does do, and the reason i think they did it was to get everyone's attention. They saw that the international equity markets were going down. They assumed, quite rightly, that national equity markets were probably going to go down. They had to do something dramatic to get people's attention and say, hey, we're on top of this. Don't panic. And that's what they did.

>> Ted Simons:
And that brings me to my next question which is how much of what we're talking about right now underlying everything is psychological?

>> Tracy Clark:
Almost always in economics there is a fairly large component that's psychological. Obviously there are some problems in the economy. Too much debt, overvalued assets in the housing market, but if the psychology was different, if the psychology was the same as it was six or eight months ago, this would only be a blip in the road. As it is, because the psychology is so negative, it's turning into a recession.

>> Ted Simons:
Arizona Senator John McCain leads the pack by quite a bit in Arizona. And Hillary Clinton has a big lead among democrats in our state. Those are the results of the latest cronkite eight poll. The poll was conducted by the Walter Cronkite school of journalism and mass communication at Arizona state university and eight TV. January 17th through the 20th. In two separate polls, we interviewed 375 republicans and 366 democrats who are most likely to vote. The margin of error for republicans is 5\%, 5.1\% for democrats. Here are the results.

>> Mike Sauceda:
We asked those who will vote for a particular candidate why they will vote for that person. 21\% of those who plan to vote for McCain say they like his views, 16\% said he was experienced, qualified, 14 percent cited his military background, with other reasons following into the single digit category. Of those who plan to vote for Romney, 40\% cite conservative credentials, 18\% his business background, 12\% thinks he is the best candidate running. For huckabee, 15\% like his views, 10\% think he is honest. Among democrats who plan to vote for a particular candidate, 38 like clinton because of her experience, 30\% views of issues, think her husband will be a help for her, 9\% said we need a woman president with others getting single digit responses. Those who plan to vote for Obama, 47\% like his vision for change, 10\% believe in him, 10\% think he is a smart person, other reasons registering single digit responses. 40\% of those who plan to vote for John Edwards say he is a right candidate for the times, other reasons receiving smaller responses.

>> Ted Simons:
Here to talk about the results of the latest poll, its Director Dr. Bruce merrill and associate director tara blanc.

>> Bruce Merrill:
John McCain is on a role. A lot of good news out of new hampshire, south carolina, he has solidified his vote here. On the democratic site, consistently Hillary Clinton has had about an 18, 20 percentage point advantage over obama. We found the same thing in this poll. This poll is among those most likely to vote. I think that she does well simply because she is kind of the party person here. She has been in politics a long time. Traditional voter is a party-oriented person. Obama supporters are more likely to be nontraditional than young people. Hillary has the lead clearly with two weeks to go.

>> Ted Simons:
Considering the voters surveyed here, the ones most likely to vote, two weeks before the primary, 20\% still undecided, unusual?

>> Tara Blanc:
Perhaps a little unusual. It could be partly because of the number of candidates that are out there, and also with the ups and downs of the primaries. You know, John mccain went in and started the win -- Obama came in and won off the top, and then Clinton came back and it has been back and forth, back and forth. Some people are watching what's happening around the country and waiting to see how the wind blows to make up their own mind, or to go -- they might like one candidate for one reason, another candidate for another and see how it all shakes out before they make up their mind.

>>Ted Simons:
For those leaning toward one candidate or another, how does that play into the whole dynamic?

>> Tara Blank:
What we found we asked people the question in two parts. First we asked if they were firm on their decision about who they wanted to vote for. Then we asked who that was. If they said they weren't firm, we asked who they were leaning toward. We have two types of responses. And the people that are firm in their decision formed a smaller percentage, and that larger pool of undecided, you have a little less -- leeway there, and so if you really are looking at the people who have decided, I mean, that firm, solid, not going to change their minds. Undecided, there may be play there. Although, if they have named a candidate, even if they are just leaning towards them, usually that means they have made up their mind. It would take a lot to get them to change. They are just waiting to see just to be sure.

>> Ted Simons:
I thought it was interesting, Bruce, to see how many people thought senator Clinton was their firm choice because of president Clinton.

>> Bruce Merrill:
Absolutely. The two things that were interesting that did come out in the poll, 12\% for all of the reasons given for supporting Hillary Clinton was because we like Bill Clinton. It is like a two-for. If you vote for Hillary, you are getting bill. People forget he was a very popular president. With the economy getting bad, I think for some people it is reassuring to know that she can go home and talk to somebody that's been there, and done it, and i think it helps.

>> Ted Simons:
Governor Napolitano comes out endorsing Barack Obama. Any idea how much influence that will be?

>> Bruce Merrill:
Almost none. It takes nothing away from the governor. A great deal of academic research that shows endorsements rarely have any significant impact, and the reason is that governor Napolitano is well liked in Arizona, she is one of the most popular governors we've ever had, but even if she endorsed obama, some people don't like being told how they're going to vote. I don't think it is a factor in the outcome. There are just too many other factors that are bigger factors.

>>Ted Simons:
The economy a big factor honestly in a lot of ways. Governor McCain came out saying I don't know that much about the economy, which is straight talk --

>>Tara Blanc:
When times are tough, we have an economy that looks like it is going south. Problems in Iraq. All of these things that are going on. A lot of times people looking for leadership and people with experience. That is likely going to be Hillary Clinton's edge, because she has been there, she has done that. She not only has the back-up of Bill Clinton, in the senate, politics for a long time, McCain also has that. I suspect that you would see Hillary Clinton would have a different story to tell if asked the same question.

>>Ted Simons:
Thank you so much for joining us. Appreciate it.

>> Bruce Merrill:
Glad to be here.

>> Ted Simons:
Seven bills that would make changes to Arizona's employer sanctions law have been introduced at the state legislature. One, a correction to make state law match up with federal law is already making progress. In a moment, i'll talk to the sponsor of the majority of proposed legislation. Here's a quick look at the bills.

>> Mike Sauceda:
Reference to federal law. Bill as passed makes a reference to the wrong federal law. House bill 2342 would make it clear that independent contractors are not subject to the law because they are not employees. House bill 2343 would require that any complaints be made in writing. Contain the full name and address of the person complaining. Right now the law allows anonymous complaints. The bill would ban discrimination as a motive for filing a complaint. House bill 2344 would make it tougher to prosecute an employer by changing the definition of knowingly hiring an illegal worker to the phrase have actual or constructive knowledge that the person is an unauthorized alien. It would raise the level of proof for a conviction to beyond a reasonable doubt. 2345 would take the state attorney general out of the enforcement equation. 2346 would make it clear that the law applies only to new hires. Here to tell us more is Bill Konopnicki.

>> Ted Simons:
Here to tell us more is republican state representative, Bill Konopnicki. Bill, thanks for joining us.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Thanks Ted, thanks for having me on.

>> Ted Simons:
Why did you decide to lead the way on this.

>> Quick history on hospital 2779 it was done the tuesday before we ended the session. The governor when she signed it said there need to be fixes in the bill. What these bills are, are a representation of those things that needed to be fixed.

>>Ted Simons:
you voted for the bill, correct?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
I did.

>> Ted Simons:
Was that a mistake?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Yes, it was. We were told there would be an initiative. Told we would have an opportunity to fix some of the problems of the bill, it would apply from this point moving forward not retroactively backwards.

>> Ted Simons:
You are mentioning, trying to figure out if this deals with new hires only.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Yes, that is the idea. You wouldn't go back retroactively, the employers who employed these people, could not use any other methods to e-verify, it is illegal to do that.

>>Ted Simons:
Was that something to do when the bill was first presented, the word employ is getting a lot of attention right now, is this something that people didn't realize would have this much ambiguity?

>> Bill Konopnicki.:
I think so. People didn't have much of a chance to look at the bill. The definitions of things like employ, we did not have the opportunity to vet those and be able to decide what that meant.

>>Ted Simons:
You own Mcdonald's restaurants.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
I do. Minority owner, my son is the majority owner of those.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Directly, i don't think it will have any direct impact, other than it costs more money to verify all of the employees that we have as we hire them and make sure that we have the regulation in place that we can meet the standards. Most businessmen in the state of Arizona try to comply with the law. They file the i-9's, get the information, try to be compliant with the law. What the intent originally of the bill was to look at those people who have no idea of following the law and are openly and blatantly violating the law.

>>Ted Simons:
Is that another reason why another bill would make e-verify optional instead of required?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
If you have -- you can't choose to -- the idea would hold a carrot out there, if you e-verify, you will have the ability to have a burden of proof against you that you wouldn't have the other way. The way it is now everybody has to do e-verify and a lot of people are choosing not to do that, and it is to change it from a stick to a carrot.

>> Ted Simons:
How much traction is that getting?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
It will have some traction. A lot of response by a lot of people. The thing that happens is that we have people opposed to making these changes dealing on emotion and not dealing with logic and fact. We want people to e-verify. We want them to have a reason to be able to comply with the law and not look for reasons to circumvent the law.

>>Ted Simons:
Another one of your bills, 2342 exempt independent contractors from the law. Why is that necessary?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
So many different businesses around the state hire independent contractors to do their business now. It's one thing to make you verify your own employees, but when you start dipping into independent contractors, you have to reach far to verify those individuals. You have no control over them.

>> Ted Simons:
Another one of your bills would make it tougher in terms of the burden of proof. Verbiage, knowingly hiring to actual or constructive knowledge.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
What happens is the consequences of these bills, somebody losing their income, life savings, if all of their employees have lost their jobs. Bank note, foreclosure on the hands. If you are going to enforce the law, you want to make sure that you absolutely positively have somebody that is violating the law.

>> Ted Simons:
From the critics point of view, it seems that this is just a way to gut the law. How would you respond?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
If the individuals would read the bills, they would see that these are strengthening the law, removing some of the problems. Put teeth in the employer sanction bill so it can be enforced. Emotion piece, oh, he is trying to tear the law down. In fact we're trying to do -- the citizens want something that is enforceable. These bills make that law more enforceable.

>> Ted Simons:
Is there not a threat, public relations is everything, if you think they're trying to gut it, then here comes the initiative process again.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
The initiative process never went away. It's still around. The thing that makes it difficult a lot of these people are dealing with emotion. They don't want to deal with the fact. They want these things struck down.

>> Ted Simons:
Odds that these things are going to get through?

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Well, as a package, all of them won't get through. Individual bills have a high probability and some have 50/50 chance.

>>Ted Simons:
Thank you for joining us.

>> Bill Konopnicki:
Thanks for having me.

>>Ted Simons:
Those who sell mortgages carry a huge responsibility. They sell you the biggest purchase of your life. Yet in our state, mortgage sellers are not licensed. A state lawmaker will soon introduce a bill to change that. I talked to senator Jay Tibshraeny about his new mortgage seller licensing bill.

>> Ted Simons:
And senator, thank you for joining us.

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
Thanks for having me this evening.

>> Ted Simons:
You will soon introduce a bill that will license mortgage sellers. Why is this important?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
It is important for many reasons. We have had a meltdown in the mortgage industry for many reasons. Last year i ran mortgage fraud legislation, making certain offenses a crime, and a serious crime. There is no licensing of people who sell you your mortgage. If you go buy a house or piece of ground, that real estate agent is licensed, as is his broker, stocks, bonds, that person is licensed but in the mortgage industry, in this case of Arizona, there is no licensing of the person selling you that mortgage which is a major investment that you will undertake in your lifetime.

>>Ted Simons:
You mentioned bankers and brokers are regulated, sellers aren't. How did we get to that decision?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
That's a good question. 28 other states do license the salesmen and the brokers. In Arizona only the bankers and brokers. That is a system whose time needs to come to an end in terms of now we need to take the next logical step and we need to license the people selling that. That's why -- that is the whole impetus behind this idea, license the people selling the mortgages to us.

>> Ted Simons:
What are some of the problems that you have seen that crop up because these folks aren't licensed?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
Some of the problems you are seeing is they're putting people into loans that they're maybe not qualified for. They're putting them into loans where they don't explain to them all of the terms. They're putting them in loans to where they're -- it just may not be suited to that buyer. What we will do by licensing people selling that mortgage, a different level of professionalism. They're going to have to take continuing education once they have their license. Even more importantly, before they get their license, they will be -- there will be education requirements so that they are -- they get that education. They have to pass an exam and they will continue to take ongoing licensing and school credits as they keep that license. So, it's bringing a bit more professionalism to that industry. I don't think we have bad people for the most part in that industry. There is some bad people. We need to raise the level of professionalism and education in that industry. Since it is such a significant investment we will make. I'm hoping this bill will be the next logical step in dealing with that.

>>Ted Simons:
What kind of criminal and or civil penalties are you talking about in your bill?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
A couple of things. A class 6 felony for not adhering to the requirements of the -- once you form -- once you're licensed, just like in real estate, once that commissioner starts saying, hey, i'm having problems with the way you're doing business, i am going to revoke or suspend your license, once you put that in place, it will make people more aware that i do have a responsibility here to the public and i do need to be careful or i could lose my license. That license is how i make a living in that industry. Having that license, people overlooking that industry and how people are conducting themselves will make a major difference in the kind of product and service we're giving our consumers in the state of arizona.

>> Ted Simons:
How much opposition are you hearing so far from this?

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
With my colleagues in the republican parties, concern about regulation. Just like in the real estate industry a few decades where the time had come to regulate it and license, the time has come in this industry to regulate and have licensing. We have had a major economic crash in this country due to mortgages and related problems in the mortgage industry. There is a lot -- is it all about the salesman? No, but it is part of puzzle. We will have opposition. 28 other states have said this is the way to go. Arizona shouldn't be the last on board. We will work hard and hopefully get that legislation through this year.

>>Ted Simons:
Thanks for joining us.

>> Jay Tibshraeny:
Thank you.

>>Ted Simons:
Tomorrow governor Janet Napolitano joins horizon for her regular visit to discuss issues such as the state budget, the employer sanctions law, and her endorsement of presidential candidate Barack Obama. That's Wednesday on "horizon." Thursday we talk with several leaders about improving --

>>Ted Simons:
Thursday we talk with several leaders about improving education, and friday another edition of the "journalists' roundtable." that's it for now. I'm Ted Simons. You have a great evening.

>> Anouncer:
"Horizon" is made possible by contributions from the friends of eight, members of your arizona pbs station. Thank you