Boulton Information

We’re spreading interesting Boulton links across too many threads and need to pull them together in one place. Let’s keep the topical discussions, but please crosspost links to this thread. The person posting the link may have a brief synopsis, but please do not use this for arguing or editorializing.

None have any links to the Climatic Research Unit, or the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). More information about each of the review team members can be found in the Biographies section.

The Muir Russell FAQ states:
Do any of the Review team members have a predetermined view on climate change and climate science?

No. Members of the research team come from a variety of scientific backgrounds. They were selected on the basis they have no prejudicial interest in climate change and climate science and for the contribution they can make to the issues the Review is looking at.

In respect to Team member Geoffrey Boulton, General Secretary of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, they say:

Professor Geoffrey Boulton has expertise in fields related to climate change and is therefore aware of the scientific approach, through not in the climate change field itself.

http://www.cce-review.org/FAQs.php
Professor Geoffrey Boulton has expertise in fields related to climate change and is therefore aware of the scientific approach, through not in the climate change field itself.

I note that Geoffrey Boulton is based at the University of Edinburgh, with an office at the Grant Institute at the King’s Buildings in Edinburgh. Interestingly, Gabi Hegerl, who, I understand, is a member of the ‘Hockey Team’ and features in the CRU emails, and was a key author of AR4, has an office on the same floor in the same building 3 doors along.

“We, members of the UK science community, have the utmost confidence in the observational evidence for global warming and the scientific basis for concluding that it is due primarily to human activities.

“The evidence and the science are deep and extensive. They come from decades of painstaking and meticulous research, by many thousands of scientists across the world who adhere to the highest levels of professional integrity.”

Title: “VISIONS OF SCOTLAND 2050; FLOODING, RATIONING, REFUGEES, POWER FAILURES . . . BUT WE’LL ALL BE HAPPIER. EXPERTS WERE ASKED TO IMAGINE OUR COUNTRY IN 42 YEARS . . . ENVIRONMENT EDITOR ROB EDWARDS LOOKS AT THEIR PREDICTIONS”

BYLINE: ENVIRONMENT EDITOR ROB EDWARDS

Quoting the article: “Geoffrey Boulton, the vice principal of Edinburgh University, painted a similarly bleak picture. In his scenario, polar ice caps melted much fasted than expected, causing “the potential demise of the Netherlands, Bangladesh and Kuwait, flooding of large areas of the US Gulf of Mexico, Florida and east coasts, of Myanmar, Thailand and northeast China”.

“In the UK “large parts of south eastern England and in Scotland, the Forth, Clyde, Moray and Solway lowlands were at risk, with the prospect of major frequent inland flooding along most river valleys, ” he said. There would be a “massive impact on the populations and economies of most states”.

“Boulton predicted that food and water shortages would trigger riots in developing countries and Scotland would have “severe power failures” from 2013 because of “increasingly unreliable nuclear stations”.

“Governments were guilty of “misplaced optimism”, he argued, and for being “too preoccupied by the credit crunch”.”

I posted the actual “2050” Boulton article earlier under
“More Tricks from Boulton and the Hapless Muir Russell”.

Prof. Geoffrey Boulton participated; his short paper was entitled: “A Tale of Misplaced Optimism”
Perhaps reading this gives one some insight into his thought processes. He is on pp. 23-26 of the paper, pp. 32-35 of the pdf below:

Sir Muir Russell, Head of the Independent Review, said: “I agreed very willingly to Professor Acton’s request to undertake this Independent Review. Given the nature of the allegations it is right that someone who has no links to either the University or the Climate Science community looks at the evidence and makes recommendations based on what they find. My first task is to scope the project, gather the information I need and source the additional expertise that will be required in order to investigate fully the allegations that have been made. Once this has happened I will

18 Feb: Scotsman: Suitable choice
With regard to your report and editorial on Professor Geoffrey Boulton’s place on the inquiry into the stolen University of East Anglia e-mails (13 February), you imply that the inquiry is into whether climate change is real or not: this is not at all in dispute, since there is a huge volume of overwhelming evidence from all over the globe.
The inquiry being run by Sir Muir Russell is about whether climate researchers at the University of East Anglia followed the correct scientific protocols in their work. Prof Boulton, therefore, seems an excellent choice to be part of this inquiry, since he knows about both climate science and how university departments run.
Your report originates from calls by a member of the climate-denying Global Warming Policy Foundation for Prof Boulton to step down because he is a climate scientist who is convinced that climate change is very real. Sadly for the deniers, there are no credible climate scientists who do not believe that climate change is real.
(DR) RICHARD DIXON
Director, WWF Scotland
Dunkeld, Perthshirehttp://news.scotsman.com/letters/Suitable-choice.6082518.jp

The Royal Society of Edinburgh
The 2008 Edinburgh Consortium for Rural Research (ECRR)
Peter Wilson Lecture
Science, Innovation, Education: The Challenge to Society
Professor Geoffrey Boulton, OBE FRS FRSE, Vice-Principal and Regius Professor of Geology and Mineralogy, University of Edinburgh
12 February 2008
…
The most profound issue is climate. “I believe that we can currently say that the probability of severe climate change with massive impacts is uncomfortably high,” Professor Boulton said. “And there’s a high probability that these changes are driven by human action, by our emissions of greenhouse gases.” The evidence is compelling and the latest data shows that the increase in emissions is greater than the most pessimistic scenario explored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “The implication of this is clear – although the mitigation of change by pulling back our emissions is crucially important, we must now think seriously about adaptation. In addition, there is also the possibility of a sudden shift in climate”.
“We have to recognise that the more the Earth moves into unknown territory, the less our science will be able to forecast the future,” Professor Boulton said. “It is unwise to poke a potentially dangerous animal with a stick, which is effectively what we are doing.”

“Sir David King, the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, convened a small working group to help him consider the issues around developing a universal ethical code of conduct for scientists. “Rigour, respect and responsibility: a universal ethical code for scientists” was the product of the group’s work. Sir David King asked the Council for Science and Technology (CST), to look at how the code could be disseminated more widely and how, in practice, it could have a useful role.

Prof Geoffrey Boulton was part CST group that drafted “Rigour, respect and responsibility: a universal ethical code for scientists”.

• Act with skill and care in all scientific work. Maintain up to date skills and assist their development in others.

• Take steps to prevent corrupt practices and professional misconduct. Declare conflicts of interest.

• Be alert to the ways in which research derives from and affects the work of other people, and respect the rights and reputations of others.

Respect

Respect for life, the law and the public good

• Ensure that your work is lawful and justified.

• Minimise and justify any adverse effect your work may have on people, animals and the natural environment.

Responsibility

Responsible communication: listening and informing

• Seek to discuss the issues that science raises for society. Listen to the aspirations and concerns of others.

• Do not knowingly mislead, or allow others to be misled, about scientific matters. Present and review scientific evidence, theory or interpretation honestly and accurately.

This is a benchmark for assesing not just how UEA-CRU has behaved in the past but it is also a useful benchmark for how Sir Muir Russell’s review is now being conducted.

It raises the question does Prof Boultion practices what he preaches?

Quote, “Our social licence to operate as scientists needs to be founded on a continually renewed relationship of trust between scientists and society. The code has been developed in my Office to help us meet this challenge.” Sir David King, Government Chief Scientific Adviser and Head of the Government Office for Science Rigour. ”

Intersting that Boultion help draft an ethical code on scientific rigour, honesty and integrity!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

From The Royal Society of Edinburgh/
The 2008 Edinburgh Consortium for Rural Research (ECRR)
Peter Wilson Lecture
Science, Innovation, Education: The Challenge to Society
Professor Geoffrey Boulton, OBE FRS FRSE, Vice-Principal and Regius Professor of
Geology and Mineralogy, University of Edinburgh

The most profound issue is climate. “I believe that we can currently say that the probability of severe
climate change with massive impacts is uncomfortably high,” Professor Boulton said. “And there’s a
high probability that these changes are driven by human action, by our emissions of greenhouse
gases.”

In an article in Arabianbusiness.com Februrary 2008 – Boulton is quoted as saying – “Human impact on the planet has accelerated over the last hundred years, with the composition of the Earth’s atmosphere being radically altered by burning fossil fuels. Understanding that impact and agreeing steps forward is a critical imperative for the future,” said Professor Geoffrey Boulton of the University of Edinburgh, responsible for the research.

This article talks about different organizations collaborating with IPCC –

The League of European Research Universities (LERU) is already responding to the global research challenges and calls for educating and inspiring the next generation of researchers as well as the rising generation of citizens. LERU is in the process of collaborating with other groups worldwide. “We want to create a clear and succinct university voice on global futures that would have an impact in the international political and scientific arena” said Geoffrey Boulton, chair of LERU’s Research Policy Committee and Vice Principal of the University of Edinburgh.

Jenny Fyall, MORE than 1,700 UK scientists have signed a petition to fight back against global warming sceptics, who claim climate data has been manipulated. [….] The Scotsman, 11 December 2009 9:36 AM […] The petition, organised by the Met Office’s chief executive and chief scientist, comes after the row over e-mails leaked from the University of East Anglia (UEA).
[…]
The petition was e-mailed to scientists who work in climate- related fields at more than 100 universities and institutes across the UK. Within four days, more than 1,700 had signed – with about 300 from Scotland. They include Professor Geoffrey Boulton, general-secretary of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, and Professor Jan Bebbington, director of the St Andrews Sustainability Institute.
[…]
Prof Boulton said he was worried the scandal might have damaged progress on thrashing out a deal to tackle global warming at the summit in Copenhagen.

He reiterated that the science shows a very strong likelihood greenhouse gas emissions are causing climate change. “Of course we are not certain; one can be certain about nothing. However, if there was even a 50 per cent chance of a man-eating lion being outside the door, you wouldn’t go out.”
[…]
Professor Stuart Haszeldine, an expert in carbon capture and storage at the University of Edinburgh, also signed. He said:

Global challenges and global collaborations – lessons learnt from global change
2nd ESF Science Policy Conference held in Stockholm, Sweden
Global challenges need global solutions. The 2nd ESF Science Policy conference held in Stockholm, Sweden on 26 and 27 November 2008, brought together heads and senior representatives of ESF’s 80 Member Organisations in 30 countries, representatives of ESF’s international partner organisations and others for a discussion on the big global scientific challenges and how to best collaborate in addressing them.
[….]
The topic of global change was used throughout the conference as an example to illustrate the need for cooperation across a wide range of topics and showcase some successful collaborations in the field. Global change can no longer be ignored and denied, at the same time, it cannot be reversed anymore on a short-term basis. It is, however, possible, to reduce its impacts by future-oriented political, institutional and personal actions. “We are in a no-analogue state and far outside of a 700,000 year range of natural variability” said Jill Jäger from the Sustainable Europe Research Institute in Vienna, Austria, and former Executive Director of the International Human Dimension Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP). “It’s important to find the common questions and a conceptual framework for interdisciplinary research” continued Jaeger.
[….]
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), recipient of last year’s Nobel Peace Prize, was also on the agenda of the conference in order to illustrate the relation between science and society.[…]
[….]
The League of European Research Universities (LERU) is already responding to the global research challenges and calls for educating and inspiring the next generation of researchers as well as the rising generation of citizens. LERU is in the process of collaborating with other groups worldwide. “We want to create a clear and succinct university voice on global futures that would have an impact in the international political and scientific arena” said Geoffrey Boulton, chair of LERU’s Research Policy Committee and Vice Principal of the University of Edinburgh.
[….]http://www.esf.org/ext-ceo-news-singleview/article/global-challenges-and-global-collaborations-lessons-learnt-from-global-change-553.html

I made a few comments along the way. Here an email ref the Boulton Mencken quote “For every complex problem there is always a simple solution that is neat, plausible- and wrong H.L. Mencken” (page 5, boulton pdf)

IES News
New studies stress urgency of environmental security danger from Glacial Melt at the Third Pole
Three new studies have confirmed both the reality and the potential for disaster of Glacial Melt in the Himalayas, Hindu Kush and Tibetan Plateau
16 December 2009

Professor Geoffrey Boulton of the School of Geosciences at the University of Edinburgh made a joint presentation with Tom Spencer of the IES on 10th November at a seminar organised by the Royal Society and Chatham House. Professor Boulton demonstrated the relationship between the Indian Monsoon and the snow field. He presented new data showing that 80-85% of the Ganges dry season flow is the result of ice and snow melt. His figures showed that there had been an 11% reduction in dry season flow in the last thirty years. He further presented data showing how the ice fields were retreating to ever higher levels in Nepal.
[….]
Two reports issued this week in Copenhagen further stressed the urgency of the situation.

UNEP, ICIMOD (The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development) and CICERO (the Center for International Climate & Environmental Research) presented recent research based on five field teams working in China, India, Pakistan and Nepal.[…]
[….]
Perhaps most worryingly of all, a new modelling study from NASA confirms the contribution of Black Carbon and dust to the warming of the Third Pole. William Law, Head of Atmospheric Sciences at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center[….]
[….]
Selection from Geoffrey Boulton\’s presentation

[Note: the UNEP (United Nations Environmental Programme) is a parent UN organization for the IPCC (Intergovernmental Climate Change Panel), and the Institute for Environmental Security (IES) in which Geoffrey Boulton has participated has had significant relationships with UNEP.]

I saw the excerpts from the presentation. Has anyone found the rest of the presentation? I tried looking at the co-authors but (a) I could find no reference to the presentation and (b) none seemed particularly involved in Himalayan glacier research – which makes the whole thing a bit puzzling.

Same here. Tom Spencer’s presentation appears to use some of the same slide/s regarding the military implications to foreign policy. The Chatam House Website does not seem to have anything about Boulton’s presentation, but Spencer’s IES seems to be consistent with the Chatam House interests regarding international political and economic affairs. The same is true of the Royal Society Website with the emphasis on the science. Perhaps the IES Website offers only a selection because some of the Chatam House presentation remains confidential?

Learning to Live with an Angry Planet: human relations with the earth in the past and in the future. Professor Geoffrey Boulton’s Lecture: Tuesday 29 January 2008.
gcph.co.uk/component/option,com_docman/…/gid,385

Good find. The paragraph reads as follows:
“The impacts are there already. These are representative images from Central Ladakh from ‘69, ‘79, ’89; they show the cover of snow and, in fact, glacier ice. The reason why that’s important is that during the dry season something like 80% of the flow of the rivers of the great north Indian plain, the Indus, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, about eighty per cent of that dry season flow comes from snow and melting glaciers. Already in the last fifteen years we’ve seen dramatic reductions in dry season flow. Calculations by glaciologists now suggest that by 2050 most of the Himalayan glaciers will have gone and the impact on dry season flow of those great rivers will be dramatic in the extreme. They could be reduced between twenty and thirty per cent of their current dry season flow with devastating impacts on agriculture in both India and Pakistan and indeed, in Western China.” Page 9
This refers to some of the slides in the Institute for Environmental Security/RS/Chatham House Presentation.
Interesting that Boulton seems to have shot from the hip – suggesting far greater certainty than he possibly could have had. I have not found a list of his publications and his center does not appear to focus on the Himalayan glaciers per se. Pretty strange, given the Indian Givernment’s report and the original assessment suggesting that the glaciers will be there for a couple of hundred years.

http://zhuhai.expat9.com/article/ties-fostered-edinburgh-u
Ties fostered with Edinburgh U
Submitted by ZD News on Mon, 2007-11-05 16:42.
Tags:
• Culture News
• Zhuhai Daily
By Betty Lin
UNIVERSITY of Edinburgh Vice Principal Geoffrey S Boulton and International Liaison Office (China) Director Nini Yang met Zhuhai government officials at the Press Building on Thursday to discuss cooperation and cultural exchange.
Huang Xiaodong, a member of the Standing Committee of the municipal CPC Party Committee, director of the Publicity Department and president of the Zhuhai International Culture Association; Vice Mayor Deng Qunfang; Cai Xinhua, vice director of the Publicity Department; Zhong Guosheng, director of the Zhuhai University Park Administration; Wu Chaoping, vice director of the Education Department; Deng Zhuoxian, president of the Zhuhai Daily Group; and other officials participated.
Boulton said he came to show appreciation to Zhuhai Municipal People’s Government for donating a bronze statue of Huang Kuan and to seek further cooperation in education and cultural exchange.
A delegation headed by Huang Xiaodong had presented the Huang Kuan statue to the Confucius Institute for Scotland at the University of Edinburgh on September 26. It was donated by the city government to honour the 150th anniversary of Huang’s graduation from the Scottish institution.
“Huang Kuan graduated from the University of Edinburgh 150 years ago and initiated the link between the university and Zhuhai. I think we should develop the relationship with new ways,” said Boulton.
A preliminary agreement about establishing a Huang Kuan Scholarship for undergraduates at Edinburgh was reached in September. There is no limitation on subjects, science, arts, management, medical … any subject is OK. “What we prefer are the cleverest students,” Boulton stressed.
In collaboration with the China Scholarship Council (CSC), the university provides full scholarships for 25 doctoral candidates from Peking, Xiamen, Nankai and China Agricultural universities each year, he explained. He also suggested that Zhuhai provide full scholarship to two or three homegrown undergraduates screened annually while the University of Edinburgh provides full scholarships for the same number of post-graduates from Zhuhai. The university would send staff to Zhuhai to interview the candidates, he added.
Vice Mayor Deng extended a warm welcome to Boulton and Yang on behalf of the city. She also expressed her wholehearted wish for tangible cooperation between Edinburgh and Zhuhai.
Eight domestically prestigious universities have established campuses in Zhuhai, creating a solid foundation for the development of higher learning in the city. Furthermore, United International College, a partnership between Beijing Normal University Zhuhai Campus and Hong Kong Baptist University, has proved to be a great success for enrolment of the most competitive students from across the country despite its much higher tuition, said Huang Xiaodong. Most teachers are renowned professors from overseas and classes are taught in English, which has contributed enormously to its popularity, he added.
Boulton said he admitted the young, dynamic universities and the great efforts made by the government. He said it is very difficult to create an overseas college or campus without the support of local government. He showed interest in Vice Mayor Deng’s suggestion of establishing an Edinburgh University college in Zhuhai.
A yearlong “China Now” series of song-and-dance performances and exhibitions of Chinese art, music, film, traditional medicine and etcetera will take place in Scotland in 2008. The purpose is to increase Scottish people’s understanding of Chinese culture. Meanwhile, the Chinese news media are welcome to cover how Scots live so that mutual understanding can be cultivated, he said.
Accompanied by Yang Yi, historian in charge of the Yung Wing and CEM Students Research Academy, and two villagers, Boulton and Yang visited the alleged Huang Kuan former residence in Dong’an Village, Tangjiawan Town. Judging from the courteous doorway of two tall, magnificent buildings in the neighbourhood built by a Chinese overseas millionaire from Australia in the early Republic of China period and a portrait of a medical scholar surnamed Huang and stories told by elderly villagers, the house is where Huang Kuan lived, Yang said.
One of the villagers told Boulton stories about Huang Kuan in English and the latter listened with immense interest. He took pictures of the plaque — Former Residence of Huang Kuan — hung on the wall and examined the house carefully. Boulton also showed curiosity about the yellow granite slabs used to pave the streets, below which are drains.
Boulton and Yang also visited the Meixi Royal Stone Archways, the former residence of Chun Afong, which was designated as a State-Level Cultural Relic in June 2006. Chun Afong was the first overseas Chinese millionaire and a merchant prince in Hawaii. His residence was built over ten years more than a century ago. “I like the atmosphere of the residence, as it suggests history,” said Boulton.
Boulton and Yang also visited Beijing Normal University Zhuhai Campus and the Zhuhai No. 1 High School.

Through these links and public awareness of our reputation, we have developed a good relationship with various fellow prestigious universities and academic institutions, such as Peking University, Tsinghua University, Fudan University, Beihang University, Beijing Film Academy, Xiamen University, Nankai University, China Agriculture University, in fields as diverse as e-science, engineering, life and medical sciences, arts and culture.

We also work closely with the Chinese Government and as a result have been granted more than 20 scholarships annually by the Chinese Scholarship Council, as well as various designated scholarships to Chinese students studying in the University of Edinburgh.

The China Office is managed by Dr Nini Yang, who is also the International Office’s representative for our activities in China.

February 2008:http://www.ameinfo.com/148007.html
The map of the Middle East could be reshaped by rising seas and populations displaced by global warming, according to major new research exploring the ongoing consequences of climate change. Developed by Professor Geoffrey Boulton of the University of Edinburgh, the new body of data will be discussed this week at The British University in Dubai (BUiD), the region’s leading research-based educational institution.

Prof Gabi Hegerl, IPCC & University of Edinburgh, School of Geosciences (The Role and Methods of the IPCC in the Negotiating Process)
Lynn Sheppard, European Commission, DG Environment (EU cooperation with China and India: creating the conditions for greater engagement)

“But I was most struck by the points made by Professor Geoffrey Boulton in his summing up of the ‘Copyright Owners’ panel in which he voiced strong support for moves to open up information — as an anecdote he narrated how his own research group (which works on Climate Change) had ended up mainly collaborating with academics from the US in large part because it was so easy to get access to US geodata.”

“The argument regarding climate change is over. Politicians are seeking the best advice possible and it is the scientific community they look to. To what extent can we predict its impact? And to what extent should governments prepare? These are the big questions we are now facing” he says.

“One of the controversial areas we need to make progress on is inter-governmental relationships in the field of disaster preparation. A lot of governments are cautious about what can be seen as imposed solutions. Our challenge is to use science to generate the political will for governments to work together.

“The World Health Organisation (WHO) is probably the best example of international co-operation. We need something like this to co-ordinate all the relevant agencies.

“Scientists’ allegiance to their science and to their scientific colleagues can be greater than to their governments. As here in Edinburgh, scientists are willing to do their part. It’s at the political level the problem lies. We must all press ahead together.”

“Works: on the processes that condition the stability of large ice sheets, particularly the hydrculic [sic] and deformational processes at the ice sheet bed; modelling the dynamic behaviour of former ice sheets and their geological products; and the future evolution of glacier cover in the Himalayas.”

“Human impact on the planet has accelerated over the last hundred years, with the composition of the Earth’s atmosphere being radically altered by burning fossil fuels.
“Understanding that impact and agreeing on steps forward is a critical imperative for the future,” said Professor Boulton, a Regius Professor with responsibility for Edinburgh’s international initiatives, who also leads the Global Change Group, one of the largest major research groups in the field of Geosciences.

Boulton sits on the UK Government’s Select Committee on Science and Technology. The following link is to the Minutes of the Meeting on 9th December 2009 where the discussion covers financing research. Inevitably Boulton brings up Climate Change but most of the document is as interesting as watching paint dry. What it does show is that he is actively involved in encouraging finance for research on climate change. That, of itself, is not bad but I have become very cynical about “all things Boulton”.

‘2.33 A change in the average surface temperature in northern high latitudes which would be of the order of 9 degrees C by 2100 at the upper end of the range is more dramatic than it may look at first sight. It is comparable with the temperature difference on the northern continents between the coldest part of the last glacial period, 18,000 years ago, and the beginning of the interglacial period, 10,000 years ago.’

Prof Palutikof was a Professor in the School of Environmental Sciences, and Director of the Climatic Research Unit, at the University of East Anglia, UK, where she worked from 1979 to 2004. —- Her proudest moment to date was attending the ceremony in 2007 at which the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
She overlapped with Prof Boulton by 7 yrs and is mentioned in 11 ClimateGate emails. She was an innocent bystander.

His paper , no 68, may relate to:
Goodess, C.M. and Palutikof, J.P. (Editors)., 1991
“Proceedings of the International Workshop on Future Climate Change and Radioactive Waste Disposal, Norwich, November, 1989.”
This may indicate that he attended a workshop in Norwich – at CRU?? – in November 1989.

Prof Boulton said he had been open about having worked at the School of Environmental Sciences at UEA between 1968 and 1986. “Since then, I have had no professional contact with the University of East Anglia or the Climatic Research Unit,” he said.