Econometer: Will robots take SD jobs?

New recruit "Pepper" the robot, a humanoid robot designed to welcome and take care of visitors and patients, holds the hand of a new born baby at AZ Damiaan hospital in Ostend, Belgium.

New recruit "Pepper" the robot, a humanoid robot designed to welcome and take care of visitors and patients, holds the hand of a new born baby at AZ Damiaan hospital in Ostend, Belgium. (FRANCOIS LENOIR / Reuters Photo)

Q: Given the trend toward more automated technologies, like self-driving Uber cars, do you think unskilled San Diegans will struggle to find work in the future?

Phil Blair, Manpower

Phil Blair

Phil Blair

Answer: Yes

The lower your skill levels, the more prone you are to be laid off from your jobs due to automation/technology, outsourcing and irrelevant work. We all have a career manager, and it is us. We need to be alert for changes in the economy, our industry and/or our employer. If your company is hiring in more qualified employees than you or much less qualified, then you are either stale or over compensated. Do something about it, whatever the reason, and retool yourself so you leave the job, the job does not leave you.

Gina Champion-Cain, American Investments

Gina Champion-Cain

Gina Champion-Cain

Answer: Yes

Nascent automation technologies will be the next source of major, low-skill labor displacement. Technology that would allow driverless truck freeway transit is coming. Eliminating drivers handling freight from the Mexican port of entry alone would rival the volume of all coal mining jobs lost. Add short-haul drone deliveries and we'll have massive labor loss that can't be blamed on trade or regulation but solely on technology.

Kelly Cunningham, National University System

Kelly Cunningham

Kelly Cunningham

Answer: Yes

Technology and automation are taking over routine, repetitive tasks. But the exponential rise in processing power and ubiquity of digitized information means computers are increasingly able to perform complicated tasks more cheaply and effectively than people as well. A recent study by Oxford University suggests 47 percent of today’s jobs could be automated in the next two decades. Employment growth will occur for highly skilled workers, while unskilled and middle-skill craft work will be increasingly supplanted.

David Ely, San Diego State University

/ San Diego State University

David Ely, San Diego State University, associate dean and professor of finance (EconoMeter panelist from 11/22/2015)

David Ely, San Diego State University, associate dean and professor of finance (EconoMeter panelist from 11/22/2015) (/ San Diego State University)

Answer: Yes

Advances in robotics and artificial intelligence will cause major shifts in how goods and services are produced across a range of sectors. Consequently, a significant number of workers are at risk of being displaced as new technologies are adopted. But whether this development creates large labor market imbalances depends on how quickly the technologies are adopted and how much adjustment time workers have to acquire new skills and move into other fields.

Alan Gin, University of San Diego

Alan Gin

Alan Gin

Answer: Yes

This is a trend that is affecting all Americans, not just San Diegans. It has been estimated that self-driving vehicles will affect as many as 4 million workers, including truck drivers. As much as trade has affected manufacturing employment, automation has also had a big impact since output has actually increased. Restaurants and retail are also sectors that may be affected. A big question is how to deal with a future where there are few jobs for those with lower education and skill levels.

James Hamilton, UC San Diego (at Harvard this quarter)

James Hamilton

James Hamilton

Answer: Yes

Technology has been changing for centuries, and it produces higher overall living standards. But the pace of change today is so fast that it is getting very hard for people to develop new skills and find work. Those who keep their jobs often see their purchasing power shrinking, particularly in the face of complementary pressures from globalization. Less-skilled workers have been the big losers in this process for the last 30 years, and unfortunately that trend is going to continue.

Jamie Moraga, intelliSolutions

Jamie Moraga

Jamie Moraga

Answer: No

It’s evolution. Jobs, industries and markets evolve over time. Look at jobs of years past; ice delivery, milkman, gas station attendants, automotive assembly workers, parking attendants - the list goes on. Technology and automation is nothing new; it just continues to evolve and it forces us to do so as well. This includes our educational system, which should focus even more on STEM and vocational skills for all students to prepare them for future jobs.

Austin Neudecker

Austin Neudecker

Austin Neudecker

Answer: Yes

Artificial intelligence, robotics and other forms of automation will far surpass human ability in the next 15 to 45 years. This gradual shift will happen first in manual labor, but also replace various strategic roles. The overall need for labor will be diminished, thereby creating more leisure time. A new economic system will be required. If interested, I suggest reading about concepts like guaranteed minimum income. Until then, everyone should level-up their skills to avoid being replaced.

Gary London, London Group of Realty Advisors

Gary London

Gary London

Answer: No

I think there are many opportunities for unskilled workers in San Diego, particularly in the tourism sector, where more hotel rooms require human labor, even if more restaurants may not. The problem remains cost of living (e.g. housing), although our region has benefited significantly by its proximity to Tijuana: Mexican workers commute daily and fill these jobs. So I actually see transportation alternatives as being a net positive for this region.

Norm Miller, University of San Diego

Norm Miller

Norm Miller

Answer: Yes

This is true throughout the U.S. but more significant in San Diego. Unskilled workers might get by where small cheap no-frill housing is available in Texas, Kentucky or Ohio. But unless we suddenly make it easier to add small homes and apartments, we are ill advised to promote any unskilled jobs. Biotech, drones and robotic industry work should be encouraged, not conventions, tourism or low wage service jobs. Unskilled, high-wage manufacturing jobs are extinct.

Bob Rauch, R.A. Rauch & Associates (hotelier)

Robert Rauch

Robert Rauch

Answer: Yes

Technology is a pillar of San Diego's economy, and automation across all industries is becoming essential for successful businesses. The service industry is increasingly relying on automation for car sharing, servers or other functions at the expense of unskilled labor for numerous reasons. These include optimizing productivity and combating increasing labor costs. While a good idea in theory, San Diego's approach to minimum wage increases will hurt those it was designed to help.

Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene University

Lynn Reaser

Lynn Reaser

Answer: Yes

The gap, already wide, will increase. Today, individuals lacking a high school diploma face a jobless rate of 7 percent versus the 2.5 percent rate among those with at a least a four-year college degree. In the future, even low-skilled workers will need to be technologically proficient. Communications, collaborative and innovative skills will be vital in all industries. Minimum wage increases and other labor cost drivers will mean more automation and less demand for unskilled workers.

John Sarkisian, Pro Performance Sports

John Sarkisian, Pro Performance Sports

John Sarkisian, Pro Performance Sports

Answer: Yes

Unskilled workers always struggle to find work. However, in today's world learning a skill or obtaining knowledge is now available to anyone who has the desire and the access to the Internet. There is no reason for anyone to not learn a skill that will lead to employment in an area they may have an interest. New technologies lead to new employment opportunities that require new skills for those who are prepared to take advantage and prosper.

Chris Van Gorder, Scripps Health

Chris Van Gorder

Chris Van Gorder

Answer: Yes

I do think it is going to be challenging in the future for those without advanced education or technical skills to find jobs that pay well enough to have a middle-class or better living in this region due to high costs of housing and living. Therefore, it has become even more important for society to invest in education and keeping students in school so they gain the knowledge and skills necessary for a successful life in a changing economy.