IHS Examines Global Geared Products Expansion

November 6, 2013

Suppliers of geared products for mobile industrial equipment applications can look forward to a 16 percent increase in total market revenue by 2017, according to a new report from IHS Inc. Revenue for gearboxes, geared motors and planetary axles sold for applications such as cranes, cement mixers and bulldozers is projected to reach $7.8 billion by 2017, up from $6.7 billion in 2012. Total market revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.0 percent.

Planetary axles will lead the way in growth, as shown in the attached figure, with almost half of the additional market revenue from 2012 to 2017 expected to originate from this product category. To be sure, overall market growth in 2013 is projected to be limited to less than 1 percent compared to 2012, due to the continued recession in Europe, economic softness in China and uncertainty in the U.S. economy. Nonetheless, revenue growth is anticipated to quicken in 2014 and 2015, with an estimated 63 percent of the total increase originating from the three sectors of agriculture, marine, and tracked and wheeled construction.

These growth sources are in contrast to the previous several years, when most expansion stemmed from the mining and construction sectors.Published surveys also estimate that more than $16 billion in capital expenditures are planned through 2016 by port authorities alone. These expansions will include geared products for mobile applications, and IHS predicts 57 percent of the projected revenue increase in mobile geared products from 2015 to 2017 will be directed toward construction-related or marine-related projects, equating to almost $370 million in additional revenue.

Marine port developments such as the Panama Canal expansion project, which upon completion in 2015 will double its capacity and allow for much larger container ships, are expected to fuel future market growth.

“As companies realign their supply lines, the expansion of the Panama Canal will affect ports all along the United States seaboard,as well as the area’s rail and commercial trucking infrastructure," observed Paul Sundberg, mechanical power transmission analyst at IHS. "Only two U.S. Atlantic seaboard ports—Baltimore and Norfolk—are currently capable of accepting the larger, ‘post-Panamax’ container ships that could soon travel through."