Who are the Best (and Worst) Kicks in the Comp?Looking at Goalkicking in 3 Different Ways

For the fourth week in a row, a player has missed a potential match-winning shot with the last kick1 of the game. Isaac Smith relived his Qualifying Final horror last Saturday against the Cats at the MCG, but he has ample company in Todd Goldstein, Tom Hawkins, and Michael Walters who, over the last month, have all failed to give their sides the win with the most important kick of the match.

Goalkicking is without a doubt one of the most important skills in the game. Wins and losses are routinely decided on it. It seems like barely a week goes by without some ex-player coming out and lamenting the quality of "modern day" goalkicking. I disagree with these sort of takes for a number of reasons (increased intensity, improved defence, and selective memory are among the reasons why accuracy appears to have stagnated), but I'll save that for another time.

Today, I wanted to look at the different ways we can measure goalkicking, how useful these are at measuring the "ability" of different types of players, and which players have the best goalkicking records so far this year.

First and foremost the simple goals and behinds tally. You've read it in the papers, you've seen it on Fox, in fact, you probably have a mate who knows how many goals and behinds your key forwards have kicked this year off the top of his head. But just who has kicked the most goals from their shots this year?

Simple Accuracy (Goals / Scoring Shots)

Here are all 231 players to have taken at least 10 scoring shots this year, sorted by simple accuracy. Ben McEvoy leads the way this year with a simple accuracy of 92%, scoring 11.1 from his 12 scoring shots this year.

Player

Club

Goals

Behinds

Simple Accuracy (%)

Ben McEvoy

Hawthorn

11

1

92

Callum Ah Chee

Gold Coast Suns

12

2

86

Mitch Robinson

Brisbane Lions

9

2

82

Ryan Bastinac

Brisbane Lions

14

3

82

Christian Petracca

Melbourne

21

5

81

Drew Petrie

West Coast Eagles

11

3

79

Tom McDonald

Melbourne

19

5

79

Paul Puopolo

Hawthorn

14

4

78

Daniel Menzel

Geelong Cats

33

10

77

Dan Hannebery

Sydney Swans

10

3

77

Riley Knight

Adelaide Crows

10

3

77

Steven Motlop

Geelong Cats

17

5

77

Jonathon Patton

GWS Giants

33

10

77

Matthew Wright

Carlton

23

7

77

Rory Sloane

Adelaide Crows

13

4

76

Trent Cotchin

Richmond

12

4

75

Tim O'Brien

Hawthorn

16

6

73

Will Hoskin-Elliott

Collingwood

11

4

73

Lewis Jetta

West Coast Eagles

8

3

73

Jack Martin

Gold Coast Suns

16

6

73

Blake Acres

St Kilda

8

3

73

James Parsons

Geelong Cats

11

4

73

Mark Blicavs

Geelong Cats

10

4

71

Jacob Weitering

Carlton

7

3

70

Wayne Milera

Adelaide Crows

7

3

70

Brandon Ellis

Richmond

7

3

70

Ben Cunnington

North Melbourne

7

3

70

Tom Boyd

Western Bulldogs

7

3

70

David Mackay

Adelaide Crows

7

3

70

Rory Lobb

GWS Giants

14

6

70

Dan Butler

Richmond

20

9

69

Marc Murphy

Carlton

9

4

69

Nathan Hrovat

North Melbourne

11

5

69

Jack Watts

Melbourne

20

9

69

Josh P. Kennedy

Sydney Swans

11

5

69

Jordan De Goey

Collingwood

9

4

69

Tom Scully

GWS Giants

11

5

69

Jamie Elliott

Collingwood

25

12

68

Andy Otten

Adelaide Crows

17

8

68

Lachie Neale

Fremantle

13

6

68

Tim Membrey

St Kilda

26

12

68

Rory Atkins

Adelaide Crows

10

5

67

Jake Melksham

Melbourne

8

4

67

Todd Goldstein

North Melbourne

10

5

67

Ben Brown

North Melbourne

41

20

67

Josh Hill

West Coast Eagles

16

8

67

Josh Schache

Brisbane Lions

8

4

67

Shaun Atley

North Melbourne

10

5

67

Alex Sexton

Gold Coast Suns

10

5

67

Eddie Betts

Adelaide Crows

41

20

67

Mitch Hannan

Melbourne

18

9

67

Nick Riewoldt

St Kilda

24

12

67

Jeremy Cameron

GWS Giants

41

21

66

Josh Jenkins

Adelaide Crows

27

14

66

Eric Hipwood

Brisbane Lions

26

14

65

Brandon Matera

Gold Coast Suns

22

12

65

Kayne Turner

North Melbourne

15

8

65

Sam Reid

Sydney Swans

22

12

65

Cameron Pedersen

Melbourne

9

5

64

Sam Petrevski-Seton

Carlton

7

4

64

Cale Hooker

Essendon

27

15

64

Zac Williams

GWS Giants

7

4

64

Ben Ainsworth

Gold Coast Suns

9

5

64

Tom Hawkins

Geelong Cats

36

20

64

Clay Smith

Western Bulldogs

7

4

64

Daniel Wells

Collingwood

7

4

64

Patrick Cripps

Carlton

7

4

64

Ricky Henderson

Hawthorn

9

5

64

Dale Thomas

Carlton

7

4

64

Charlie Dixon

Port Adelaide

33

19

63

Orazio Fantasia

Essendon

32

19

63

Lachie Hunter

Western Bulldogs

12

7

63

Levi Casboult

Carlton

24

14

63

Robbie Gray

Port Adelaide

40

23

63

Luke Breust

Hawthorn

24

14

63

Devon Smith

GWS Giants

12

7

63

Charlie Curnow

Carlton

12

7

63

Jeff Garlett

Melbourne

32

19

63

Jack Gunston

Hawthorn

17

10

63

Joe Daniher

Essendon

45

26

63

Nathan Jones

Melbourne

10

6

62

Taylor Garner

North Melbourne

10

6

62

Jesse Hogan

Melbourne

10

6

62

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti

Essendon

25

15

62

Steele Sidebottom

Collingwood

13

8

62

Tom J. Lynch

Gold Coast Suns

37

23

62

Zak Jones

Sydney Swans

8

5

62

Jarryd Roughead

Hawthorn

23

14

62

Darcy Moore

Collingwood

21

13

62

Josh J. Kennedy

West Coast Eagles

37

24

61

Jack Darling

West Coast Eagles

30

19

61

Michael Walters

Fremantle

22

14

61

Jack Riewoldt

Richmond

40

26

61

Taylor Walker

Adelaide Crows

41

26

61

Elliot Yeo

West Coast Eagles

6

4

60

Jackson Trengove

Port Adelaide

15

10

60

James Stewart

Essendon

12

8

60

Josh Bruce

St Kilda

26

17

60

Robert Murphy

Western Bulldogs

6

4

60

James Sicily

Hawthorn

12

8

60

Sam Jacobs

Adelaide Crows

6

4

60

Callan Ward

GWS Giants

6

4

60

Sam Powell-Pepper

Port Adelaide

15

10

60

Travis Cloke

Western Bulldogs

6

4

60

Tim Taranto

GWS Giants

6

4

60

Toby Greene

GWS Giants

32

22

59

Toby McLean

Western Bulldogs

10

7

59

Jack Redpath

Western Bulldogs

10

7

59

Isaac Heeney

Sydney Swans

10

7

59

David Mundy

Fremantle

10

7

59

Alex Neal-Bullen

Melbourne

10

7

59

Patrick Dangerfield

Geelong Cats

32

22

59

Nathan Vardy

West Coast Eagles

7

5

58

Luke Dahlhaus

Western Bulldogs

7

5

58

Tom Papley

Sydney Swans

19

14

58

Daniel Rioli

Richmond

14

10

58

Adam Treloar

Collingwood

11

8

58

Peter Wright

Gold Coast Suns

22

16

58

Bryce Gibbs

Carlton

14

10

58

Ryan Lester

Brisbane Lions

11

8

58

Richard Douglas

Adelaide Crows

7

5

58

Liam Picken

Western Bulldogs

12

9

57

Tom Cutler

Brisbane Lions

8

6

57

Charlie Cameron

Adelaide Crows

20

15

57

Jarman Impey

Port Adelaide

13

10

57

Patrick Ryder

Port Adelaide

8

6

57

Shane Kersten

Fremantle

17

13

57

Tom Lynch

Adelaide Crows

23

17

57

Mark LeCras

West Coast Eagles

23

17

57

Travis Boak

Port Adelaide

12

9

57

Will Hayward

Sydney Swans

13

10

57

Gary Rohan

Sydney Swans

10

8

56

Jason Castagna

Richmond

19

15

56

Tom Mitchell

Hawthorn

9

7

56

David Zaharakis

Essendon

9

7

56

Mason Wood

North Melbourne

14

11

56

Michael Barlow

Gold Coast Suns

10

8

56

Dayne Beams

Brisbane Lions

9

7

56

Dayne Zorko

Brisbane Lions

25

20

56

Shaun Burgoyne

Hawthorn

10

8

56

Rohan Bewick

Brisbane Lions

6

5

55

Cam McCarthy

Fremantle

17

14

55

Ben Reid

Collingwood

6

5

55

Dustin Martin

Richmond

22

19

54

Dean Kent

Melbourne

7

6

54

Dyson Heppell

Essendon

7

6

54

Jack Ziebell

North Melbourne

7

6

54

Bailey Dale

Western Bulldogs

7

6

54

Jamie Cripps

West Coast Eagles

15

13

54

Travis Colyer

Essendon

10

9

53

David Swallow

Gold Coast Suns

8

7

53

Brady Grey

Fremantle

8

7

53

Aaron Hall

Gold Coast Suns

10

9

53

Mitch Duncan

Geelong Cats

9

8

53

Jarryd Lyons

Gold Coast Suns

9

8

53

Harry Taylor

Geelong Cats

11

10

52

Alex Fasolo

Collingwood

27

25

52

Jarrad Waite

North Melbourne

17

16

52

Bradley Hill

Fremantle

12

11

52

Lance Franklin

Sydney Swans

47

45

51

Chad Wingard

Port Adelaide

18

17

51

Ollie Wines

Port Adelaide

11

11

50

James Harmes

Melbourne

9

9

50

Jake Stringer

Western Bulldogs

24

24

50

Jake Barrett

Brisbane Lions

9

9

50

Rhys Stanley

Geelong Cats

6

6

50

Touk Miller

Gold Coast Suns

5

5

50

Dom Sheed

West Coast Eagles

8

8

50

Jesse White

Collingwood

5

5

50

Nat Fyfe

Fremantle

11

11

50

Zach Merrett

Essendon

5

5

50

Zach Tuohy

Geelong Cats

6

6

50

Jack Viney

Melbourne

5

5

50

Luke Shuey

West Coast Eagles

6

6

50

Darcy Lang

Geelong Cats

5

5

50

Aaron Young

Port Adelaide

10

10

50

Jack Silvagni

Carlton

15

15

50

Sam J. Reid

GWS Giants

10

10

50

Jack Crisp

Collingwood

6

6

50

Sam Lloyd

Richmond

6

6

50

Liam Shiels

Hawthorn

7

7

50

Josh Green

Essendon

15

15

50

Jade Gresham

St Kilda

21

22

49

Justin Westhoff

Port Adelaide

10

11

48

Lewis Taylor

Brisbane Lions

12

13

48

Luke Parker

Sydney Swans

10

11

48

Steve Johnson

GWS Giants

13

14

48

Shaun Grigg

Richmond

9

10

47

Matthew Kreuzer

Carlton

9

10

47

Marcus Bontempelli

Western Bulldogs

16

19

46

Luke McDonald

North Melbourne

6

7

46

Tom Phillips

Collingwood

5

6

45

Nic Newman

Sydney Swans

5

6

45

Josh Caddy

Richmond

10

12

45

Dylan Shiel

GWS Giants

9

11

45

Nakia Cockatoo

Geelong Cats

7

9

44

Brodie Smith

Adelaide Crows

7

9

44

Sam Gray

Port Adelaide

17

22

44

Jason Johannisen

Western Bulldogs

6

8

43

Mitch McGovern

Adelaide Crows

6

8

43

Kieren Jack

Sydney Swans

6

8

43

Gary Ablett

Gold Coast Suns

8

11

42

Cyril Rioli

Hawthorn

5

7

42

Josh Kelly

GWS Giants

10

14

42

Shaun Higgins

North Melbourne

14

19

42

Jack Newnes

St Kilda

5

7

42

Jeremy McGovern

West Coast Eagles

8

11

42

Scott Pendlebury

Collingwood

5

7

42

Hayden Crozier

Fremantle

9

13

41

Jack Billings

St Kilda

16

23

41

Jared Polec

Port Adelaide

7

10

41

Shane Edwards

Richmond

7

10

41

Josh Dunkley

Western Bulldogs

4

6

40

Jordan Murdoch

Geelong Cats

6

9

40

Kane Lambert

Richmond

6

9

40

Isaac Smith

Hawthorn

7

11

39

Sam Menegola

Geelong Cats

7

11

39

Sean Lemmens

Gold Coast Suns

8

13

38

Paddy McCartin

St Kilda

5

8

38

Tomas Bugg

Melbourne

7

12

37

Matthew Suckling

Western Bulldogs

7

12

37

Marcus Adams

Western Bulldogs

4

7

36

Sebastian Ross

St Kilda

4

7

36

Will Langford

Hawthorn

6

11

35

Maverick Weller

St Kilda

9

18

33

Levi Greenwood

Collingwood

6

13

32

Tim Broomhead

Collingwood

5

11

31

Jack Steven

St Kilda

6

14

30

Jack Lonie

St Kilda

5

12

29

Hugh McCluggage

Brisbane Lions

5

12

29

Dion Prestia

Richmond

2

8

20

I stress, "scoring" shots, because unfortunately due to data availability, we don't have much data on how many shots players have taken which have either fallen short or missed the goals entirely. If we did, I suspect a few of these records would look a fair bit worse. When some of this data does drip through to the public, it can throw up a few surprises.

Even though the data are incomplete, we can still get a pretty good idea about goalkicking ability if we look at the right things. However, looking at that table above, the limitations of a straight goals and behinds record is immediately apparent.

Firstly, we have to decide an arbitrary cut off point for when we consider the sample big enough. If instead of looking at players with at least 10 scoring shots, we look at players with at least 5 scoring shots, McEvoy is no longer number 1. Two players this year (Christian Salem and David Cunningham) have kicked 5 goals straight without registering a single behind. Of course, they are not really the best kicks in the comp, we wouldn't expect their accuracy to remain 100% if instead of 5 shots, they had taken 50.

If we make the cutoff 20 or more shots, Christian Petracca becomes the best kick. If we make the cutoff 40 or more, Daniel Menzel becomes the best. 40 might seem like a sensible value, and Menzel really is a good kick, but if we make 40 shots the cutoff we miss a lot of forwards we would otherwise be interested in, such as Sam Reid who has kicked 22.12 or Matthew Wright who has kicked 23.7.

Another obvious shortcoming of the simple accuracy measure is that the difficulty of shots is not accounted for whatsoever. McEvoy has certainly kicked straight this year, but 11 out of his 12 shots were set shots and the majority of them around 30m out, dead in front. This is not a slight at McEvoy at all, in fact this exactly what you would want your resting ruckman to be doing, it's just not necessarily evidence to support the claim he is the best kick in the comp.

What we need instead is a way to judge the difficulty of shots, perhaps based on how well the rest of the competition has kicked similar shots in the past. Luckily I have that exact tool, something regular readers would know as xScore. If you look at McEvoy's shotplot closely you will see that each of those circles is a slightly different size, the bigger the circle, the easier the shot. The shots further out, and at tougher angles are smaller. As is the one right in front, 25m out. Why? Because this was the one non-set shot of his 12 scores, a snap out of the pack. This is a tougher goal to kick than the set shots right next to it.

An AFL average player given those exact shots would kick about 53 points on average (so around 8 goals). McEvoy's 67 points (11 goals) means he's kicked significantly above average.

Using this model, the next obvious leap is to look at which players have kicked the most points above their xScore expectation given the shots they've taken. These are players that have kicked straighter than the AFL average player would've expected to. Good kicks.

Difference Between Actual Score and xScore

Again using the 10 scoring shot cutoff, here's how the competition has kicked.

Player

Club

Goals

Behinds

Score

xScore

Difference

Jeremy Cameron

GWS Giants

41

21

267

233

34

Matthew Wright

Carlton

23

7

145

114

31

Jonathon Patton

GWS Giants

33

10

208

177

31

Daniel Menzel

Geelong Cats

33

10

208

177

31

Eddie Betts

Adelaide Crows

41

20

266

237

29

Orazio Fantasia

Essendon

32

19

211

183

28

Steven Motlop

Geelong Cats

17

5

107

79

28

Ryan Bastinac

Brisbane Lions

14

3

87

59

28

Taylor Walker

Adelaide Crows

41

26

272

246

26

Eric Hipwood

Brisbane Lions

26

14

170

144

26

Christian Petracca

Melbourne

21

5

131

105

26

Jack Martin

Gold Coast Suns

16

6

102

80

22

Ben Brown

North Melbourne

41

20

266

245

21

Tom McDonald

Melbourne

19

5

119

100

19

Tom Hawkins

Geelong Cats

36

20

236

217

19

Trent Cotchin

Richmond

12

4

76

57

19

Lance Franklin

Sydney Swans

47

45

327

309

18

Joe Daniher

Essendon

45

26

296

278

18

Jack Gunston

Hawthorn

17

10

112

95

17

Paul Puopolo

Hawthorn

14

4

88

71

17

Rory Lobb

GWS Giants

14

6

90

73

17

Mitch Robinson

Brisbane Lions

9

2

56

39

17

Charlie Dixon

Port Adelaide

33

19

217

202

15

Tom J. Lynch

Gold Coast Suns

37

23

245

230

15

Jake Melksham

Melbourne

8

4

52

38

14

Josh Jenkins

Adelaide Crows

27

14

176

162

14

Tom Scully

GWS Giants

11

5

71

57

14

Lachie Neale

Fremantle

13

6

84

70

14

Steele Sidebottom

Collingwood

13

8

86

72

14

Rory Sloane

Adelaide Crows

13

4

82

68

14

Callum Ah Chee

Gold Coast Suns

12

2

74

60

14

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti

Essendon

25

15

165

151

14

Ben McEvoy

Hawthorn

11

1

67

53

14

Dan Hannebery

Sydney Swans

10

3

63

50

13

Dayne Zorko

Brisbane Lions

25

20

170

157

13

Josh P. Kennedy

Sydney Swans

11

5

71

58

13

Sam Reid

Sydney Swans

22

12

144

131

13

Andy Otten

Adelaide Crows

17

8

110

98

12

Jack Watts

Melbourne

20

9

129

117

12

Toby Greene

GWS Giants

32

22

214

202

12

Jack Riewoldt

Richmond

40

26

266

254

12

Devon Smith

GWS Giants

12

7

79

68

11

Marc Murphy

Carlton

9

4

58

47

11

Michael Walters

Fremantle

22

14

146

135

11

Ben Cunnington

North Melbourne

7

3

45

34

11

Adam Treloar

Collingwood

11

8

74

63

11

Drew Petrie

West Coast Eagles

11

3

69

58

11

Tim O'Brien

Hawthorn

16

6

102

91

11

Sam Powell-Pepper

Port Adelaide

15

10

100

90

10

Nathan Hrovat

North Melbourne

11

5

71

61

10

Dayne Beams

Brisbane Lions

9

7

61

51

10

Rory Atkins

Adelaide Crows

10

5

65

55

10

Wayne Milera

Adelaide Crows

7

3

45

35

10

Jamie Elliott

Collingwood

25

12

162

152

10

Riley Knight

Adelaide Crows

10

3

63

54

9

Brandon Matera

Gold Coast Suns

22

12

144

135

9

Peter Wright

Gold Coast Suns

22

16

148

139

9

Luke Breust

Hawthorn

24

14

158

149

9

Alex Sexton

Gold Coast Suns

10

5

65

56

9

James Parsons

Geelong Cats

11

4

70

61

9

Brandon Ellis

Richmond

7

3

45

36

9

Jordan De Goey

Collingwood

9

4

58

49

9

Mark LeCras

West Coast Eagles

23

17

155

147

8

David Mackay

Adelaide Crows

7

3

45

37

8

Travis Boak

Port Adelaide

12

9

81

73

8

Blake Acres

St Kilda

8

3

51

43

8

Mitch Hannan

Melbourne

18

9

117

109

8

Lachie Hunter

Western Bulldogs

12

7

79

71

8

Josh J. Kennedy

West Coast Eagles

37

24

246

239

7

Tom Boyd

Western Bulldogs

7

3

45

38

7

Shaun Atley

North Melbourne

10

5

65

58

7

Zac Williams

GWS Giants

7

4

46

39

7

Callan Ward

GWS Giants

6

4

40

33

7

Nathan Jones

Melbourne

10

6

66

59

7

Robbie Gray

Port Adelaide

40

23

263

257

6

Tim Membrey

St Kilda

26

12

168

162

6

Will Hoskin-Elliott

Collingwood

11

4

70

64

6

Cam McCarthy

Fremantle

17

14

116

110

6

Shaun Burgoyne

Hawthorn

10

8

68

62

6

Elliot Yeo

West Coast Eagles

6

4

40

35

5

Richard Douglas

Adelaide Crows

7

5

47

42

5

Sam Petrevski-Seton

Carlton

7

4

46

41

5

David Zaharakis

Essendon

9

7

61

56

5

Aaron Hall

Gold Coast Suns

10

9

69

64

5

Mark Blicavs

Geelong Cats

10

4

64

59

5

Robert Murphy

Western Bulldogs

6

4

40

36

4

Zach Tuohy

Geelong Cats

6

6

42

38

4

David Mundy

Fremantle

10

7

67

63

4

Tom Papley

Sydney Swans

19

14

128

124

4

Mason Wood

North Melbourne

14

11

95

91

4

Bryce Gibbs

Carlton

14

10

94

90

4

Lewis Jetta

West Coast Eagles

8

3

51

48

3

Jack Ziebell

North Melbourne

7

6

48

45

3

Tom Cutler

Brisbane Lions

8

6

54

51

3

Ricky Henderson

Hawthorn

9

5

59

56

3

Ben Ainsworth

Gold Coast Suns

9

5

59

56

3

David Swallow

Gold Coast Suns

8

7

55

53

2

Patrick Dangerfield

Geelong Cats

32

22

214

212

2

Zach Merrett

Essendon

5

5

35

33

2

Clay Smith

Western Bulldogs

7

4

46

44

2

Josh Hill

West Coast Eagles

16

8

104

102

2

Patrick Cripps

Carlton

7

4

46

44

2

Josh Schache

Brisbane Lions

8

4

52

50

2

Charlie Cameron

Adelaide Crows

20

15

135

133

2

Tom Mitchell

Hawthorn

9

7

61

59

2

Tim Taranto

GWS Giants

6

4

40

38

2

Jeff Garlett

Melbourne

32

19

211

209

2

Cameron Pedersen

Melbourne

9

5

59

57

2

Daniel Wells

Collingwood

7

4

46

44

2

Toby McLean

Western Bulldogs

10

7

67

65

2

Jacob Weitering

Carlton

7

3

45

43

2

Shane Kersten

Fremantle

17

13

115

113

2

Will Hayward

Sydney Swans

13

10

88

87

1

Bailey Dale

Western Bulldogs

7

6

48

47

1

Zak Jones

Sydney Swans

8

5

53

52

1

Dyson Heppell

Essendon

7

6

48

47

1

Mitch Duncan

Geelong Cats

9

8

62

61

1

Isaac Heeney

Sydney Swans

10

7

67

66

1

Daniel Rioli

Richmond

14

10

94

93

1

Charlie Curnow

Carlton

12

7

79

78

1

Alex Neal-Bullen

Melbourne

10

7

67

66

1

Luke Dahlhaus

Western Bulldogs

7

5

47

46

1

Dan Butler

Richmond

20

9

129

129

0

Jarryd Lyons

Gold Coast Suns

9

8

62

62

0

Darcy Moore

Collingwood

21

13

139

139

0

Dom Sheed

West Coast Eagles

8

8

56

56

0

Sam J. Reid

GWS Giants

10

10

70

70

0

Jared Polec

Port Adelaide

7

10

52

52

0

Chad Wingard

Port Adelaide

18

17

125

125

0

Jarryd Roughead

Hawthorn

23

14

152

152

0

Sam Lloyd

Richmond

6

6

42

42

0

Taylor Garner

North Melbourne

10

6

66

66

0

Luke Parker

Sydney Swans

10

11

71

72

-1

Nat Fyfe

Fremantle

11

11

77

78

-1

Justin Westhoff

Port Adelaide

10

11

71

72

-1

Jack Crisp

Collingwood

6

6

42

43

-1

Jason Johannisen

Western Bulldogs

6

8

44

45

-1

James Stewart

Essendon

12

8

80

81

-1

Jesse White

Collingwood

5

5

35

36

-1

Tom Lynch

Adelaide Crows

23

17

155

156

-1

Travis Colyer

Essendon

10

9

69

70

-1

Patrick Ryder

Port Adelaide

8

6

54

55

-1

Todd Goldstein

North Melbourne

10

5

65

67

-2

Luke Shuey

West Coast Eagles

6

6

42

44

-2

Nick Riewoldt

St Kilda

24

12

156

158

-2

Jamie Cripps

West Coast Eagles

15

13

103

105

-2

Luke McDonald

North Melbourne

6

7

43

45

-2

Nathan Vardy

West Coast Eagles

7

5

47

49

-2

Kayne Turner

North Melbourne

15

8

98

100

-2

Dylan Shiel

GWS Giants

9

11

65

67

-2

Levi Casboult

Carlton

24

14

158

160

-2

Dustin Martin

Richmond

22

19

151

153

-2

Cale Hooker

Essendon

27

15

177

180

-3

Liam Shiels

Hawthorn

7

7

49

52

-3

Ben Reid

Collingwood

6

5

41

44

-3

Jack Redpath

Western Bulldogs

10

7

67

70

-3

Jackson Trengove

Port Adelaide

15

10

100

103

-3

Tom Phillips

Collingwood

5

6

36

39

-3

Aaron Young

Port Adelaide

10

10

70

73

-3

Jarrad Waite

North Melbourne

17

16

118

121

-3

Nic Newman

Sydney Swans

5

6

36

39

-3

Michael Barlow

Gold Coast Suns

10

8

68

72

-4

Sam Jacobs

Adelaide Crows

6

4

40

44

-4

Bradley Hill

Fremantle

12

11

83

87

-4

Dale Thomas

Carlton

7

4

46

50

-4

Brodie Smith

Adelaide Crows

7

9

51

56

-5

James Sicily

Hawthorn

12

8

80

85

-5

Jarman Impey

Port Adelaide

13

10

88

93

-5

Travis Cloke

Western Bulldogs

6

4

40

45

-5

Ollie Wines

Port Adelaide

11

11

77

82

-5

Touk Miller

Gold Coast Suns

5

5

35

40

-5

Jack Darling

West Coast Eagles

30

19

199

204

-5

Lewis Taylor

Brisbane Lions

12

13

85

90

-5

Liam Picken

Western Bulldogs

12

9

81

86

-5

Dean Kent

Melbourne

7

6

48

54

-6

Rohan Bewick

Brisbane Lions

6

5

41

47

-6

Jordan Murdoch

Geelong Cats

6

9

45

51

-6

Shaun Grigg

Richmond

9

10

64

70

-6

Paddy McCartin

St Kilda

5

8

38

44

-6

Darcy Lang

Geelong Cats

5

5

35

41

-6

Jake Stringer

Western Bulldogs

24

24

168

174

-6

Jack Silvagni

Carlton

15

15

105

111

-6

Brady Grey

Fremantle

8

7

55

61

-6

Jack Viney

Melbourne

5

5

35

41

-6

Jake Barrett

Brisbane Lions

9

9

63

70

-7

Josh Kelly

GWS Giants

10

14

74

81

-7

Scott Pendlebury

Collingwood

5

7

37

44

-7

Gary Rohan

Sydney Swans

10

8

68

75

-7

Josh Caddy

Richmond

10

12

72

79

-7

Marcus Adams

Western Bulldogs

4

7

31

38

-7

Steve Johnson

GWS Giants

13

14

92

99

-7

Sebastian Ross

St Kilda

4

7

31

38

-7

Josh Green

Essendon

15

15

105

113

-8

James Harmes

Melbourne

9

9

63

71

-8

Jack Newnes

St Kilda

5

7

37

45

-8

Josh Bruce

St Kilda

26

17

173

181

-8

Gary Ablett

Gold Coast Suns

8

11

59

67

-8

Josh Dunkley

Western Bulldogs

4

6

30

38

-8

Matthew Suckling

Western Bulldogs

7

12

54

62

-8

Harry Taylor

Geelong Cats

11

10

76

85

-9

Jesse Hogan

Melbourne

10

6

66

75

-9

Ryan Lester

Brisbane Lions

11

8

74

83

-9

Kane Lambert

Richmond

6

9

45

54

-9

Cyril Rioli

Hawthorn

5

7

37

46

-9

Hayden Crozier

Fremantle

9

13

67

77

-10

Kieren Jack

Sydney Swans

6

8

44

54

-10

Nakia Cockatoo

Geelong Cats

7

9

51

61

-10

Shane Edwards

Richmond

7

10

52

63

-11

Jeremy McGovern

West Coast Eagles

8

11

59

70

-11

Isaac Smith

Hawthorn

7

11

53

64

-11

Alex Fasolo

Collingwood

27

25

187

199

-12

Jason Castagna

Richmond

19

15

129

141

-12

Sam Menegola

Geelong Cats

7

11

53

65

-12

Rhys Stanley

Geelong Cats

6

6

42

54

-12

Tim Broomhead

Collingwood

5

11

41

54

-13

Mitch McGovern

Adelaide Crows

6

8

44

57

-13

Matthew Kreuzer

Carlton

9

10

64

78

-14

Hugh McCluggage

Brisbane Lions

5

12

42

57

-15

Shaun Higgins

North Melbourne

14

19

103

118

-15

Levi Greenwood

Collingwood

6

13

49

66

-17

Will Langford

Hawthorn

6

11

47

64

-17

Jack Steven

St Kilda

6

14

50

69

-19

Jack Lonie

St Kilda

5

12

42

61

-19

Sam Gray

Port Adelaide

17

22

124

144

-20

Dion Prestia

Richmond

2

8

20

40

-20

Marcus Bontempelli

Western Bulldogs

16

19

115

136

-21

Jack Billings

St Kilda

16

23

119

141

-22

Jade Gresham

St Kilda

21

22

148

172

-24

Sean Lemmens

Gold Coast Suns

8

13

61

85

-24

Tomas Bugg

Melbourne

7

12

54

80

-26

Maverick Weller

St Kilda

9

18

72

101

-29

Using this metric Jeremy Cameron becomes top of the class. 34 points above xScore means he has kicked about 7 goals more than the AFL average player would with his shots.2 This is no doubt very impressive, but it's important to realise that the difference between score and xScore, does not solely measure accuracy, but rather naturally favours those players who take lots of shots.

Cameron has taken 62 scoring shots this season, the 6th most in the league. Kicking 34 points above xScore is not quite the same level of sharpshooting as Matthew Wright who has kicked 31 points above xScore from only 30 shots, the 53rd most shots in the league. Again, looking at their shotplots gives us a better idea of what is going on. The dark grey areas make up a bigger proportion of Cameron's shots than Wright's

Looking purely at score added above expectation certainly gives us an idea of the value of a player, but it's not the best way to judge the accuracy of a player's goalkicking. Instead we turn to the world of statistical hypothesis testing3 to help us pick out the best kicks.

Probability of Kicking As Many Goals by Luck

To explain how this works I'm going to use a simple example. Imagine a player takes 3 shots at goal, each with individual probabilities of goal4 of 0.5, 0.6, and 0.3. For those who have forgotten high school maths, probabilities are represented between 0 and 1. A probability of 0.5 is the same as a 50% chance, 0.6 is 60% etc.

The probability of a player kicking all 3 goals, assuming they are in fact AFL average, no better or worse, is 0.5 * 0.6 * 0.3 = 0.09. You could say this is the probability of an average player getting "lucky" and kicking three, as opposed actually being higher skilled then the rest of the competition. For those players with very few shots (like Salem and Cunningham) this is most likely what is going on.

The probability of the same AFL average player kicking 2 out of the 3 shots is calculated so: (0.5 * 0.6 * 0.3) + (0.5 * 0.4 * 0.3) + (0.5 * 0.6 * 0.7) = 0.36. So the probability of an AFL average player kicking 2 or more goals given these three shots is 0.36 + 0.9 = 0.45. There's a 45% chance that a player with complete average skill would kick at least 2 goals given these three shots.

Now we expand this a bit further and look at a real example, the AFL clairvoyant, Mitch Robinson. Here are his shots this year:

Outside of those two shots right near goal, Robinson has taken some very difficult shots this year. No other shot has had more than a 50% chance of goal if kicked at the AFL average.

Using the same method as above, we can calculate the probability of kicking 9 goals or more if Mitch was in fact an AFL average kick. This comes out at 0.0074, or a 0.74% chance. There's less than a 1% chance that we would see this record from an AFL average goalkicker. It's far more likely that Mitch Robinson is actually better than average.

Here's the rest of the competition ranked by this metric:

Player

Club

Goals

Behinds

Score

xScore

Prob Avg. Player Equal or Better

M.Wright

Carlton

23

7

145

114

0.0041

R.Bastinac

Brisbane Lions

14

3

87

59

0.0049

M.Robinson

Brisbane Lions

9

2

56

39

0.0074

J.Patton

GWS Giants

33

10

208

177

0.0074

S.Motlop

Geelong Cats

17

5

107

79

0.0122

C.Petracca

Melbourne

21

5

131

105

0.0189

B.McEvoy

Hawthorn

11

1

67

53

0.0244

D.Menzel

Geelong Cats

33

10

208

177

0.0255

J.Martin

Gold Coast Suns

16

6

102

80

0.0342

T.Cotchin

Richmond

12

4

76

57

0.0373

J.Cameron

GWS Giants

41

21

267

233

0.0387

C.Ah Chee

Gold Coast Suns

12

2

74

60

0.0486

E.Hipwood

Brisbane Lions

26

14

170

144

0.0527

O.Fantasia

Essendon

32

19

211

183

0.0571

E.Betts

Adelaide Crows

41

20

266

237

0.0616

P.Puopolo

Hawthorn

14

4

88

71

0.0663

D.Hannebery

Sydney Swans

10

3

63

50

0.0689

T.Walker

Adelaide Crows

41

26

272

246

0.0725

T.McDonald

Melbourne

19

5

119

100

0.0766

T.O'Brien

Hawthorn

16

6

102

91

0.0822

T.Scully

GWS Giants

11

5

71

57

0.0823

L.Neale

Fremantle

13

6

84

70

0.0949

J.Melksham

Melbourne

8

4

52

38

0.11

R.Sloane

Adelaide Crows

13

4

82

68

0.123

R.Lobb

GWS Giants

14

6

90

73

0.1236

A.Sexton

Gold Coast Suns

10

5

65

56

0.1294

J.Gunston

Hawthorn

17

10

112

95

0.1363

B.Cunnington

North Melbourne

7

3

45

34

0.1409

B.Brown

North Melbourne

41

20

266

245

0.144

J.Watts

Melbourne

20

9

129

117

0.1468

J.Parsons

Geelong Cats

11

4

70

61

0.148

S.Reid

Sydney Swans

22

12

144

131

0.1486

M.Murphy

Carlton

9

4

58

47

0.1571

J.Kennedy

Sydney Swans

11

5

71

58

0.1589

S.Sidebottom

Collingwood

13

8

86

72

0.1667

B.Acres

St Kilda

8

3

51

43

0.1681

A.Otten

Adelaide Crows

17

8

110

98

0.1766

D.Petrie

West Coast Eagles

11

3

69

58

0.1784

D.Mackay

Adelaide Crows

7

3

45

37

0.1824

T.Hawkins

Geelong Cats

36

20

236

217

0.1835

L.Jetta

West Coast Eagles

8

3

51

48

0.1845

D.Smith

GWS Giants

12

7

79

68

0.2046

J.Jenkins

Adelaide Crows

27

14

176

162

0.2051

J.De Goey

Collingwood

9

4

58

49

0.2075

N.Hrovat

North Melbourne

11

5

71

61

0.21

T.Boyd

Western Bulldogs

7

3

45

38

0.2155

L.Hunter

Western Bulldogs

12

7

79

71

0.2155

R.Atkins

Adelaide Crows

10

5

65

55

0.2171

M.Blicavs

Geelong Cats

10

4

64

59

0.2227

J.Daniher

Essendon

45

26

296

278

0.223

T.Boak

Port Adelaide

12

9

81

73

0.2276

A.Treloar

Collingwood

11

8

74

63

0.2285

W.Milera

Adelaide Crows

7

3

45

35

0.2332

W.Hoskin-Elliott

Collingwood

11

4

70

64

0.2355

A.McDonald-Tipungwuti

Essendon

25

15

165

151

0.2471

C.Dixon

Port Adelaide

33

19

217

202

0.2499

D.Beams

Brisbane Lions

9

7

61

51

0.2505

R.Knight

Adelaide Crows

10

3

63

54

0.2515

T.Lynch

Gold Coast Suns

37

23

245

230

0.2543

M.Walters

Fremantle

22

14

146

135

0.2577

B.Matera

Gold Coast Suns

22

12

144

135

0.2608

B.Ellis

Richmond

7

3

45

36

0.2608

L.Franklin

Sydney Swans

47

45

327

309

0.2633

S.Atley

North Melbourne

10

5

65

58

0.2645

J.Elliott

Collingwood

25

12

162

152

0.2705

T.Greene

GWS Giants

32

22

214

202

0.2781

D.Zorko

Brisbane Lions

25

20

170

157

0.2844

M.Hannan

Melbourne

18

9

117

109

0.2846

L.Breust

Hawthorn

24

14

158

149

0.294

Z.Williams

GWS Giants

7

4

46

39

0.3012

S.Powell-Pepper

Port Adelaide

15

10

100

90

0.3029

C.Ward

GWS Giants

6

4

40

33

0.3093

J.Riewoldt

Richmond

40

26

266

254

0.3114

J.Weitering

Carlton

7

3

45

43

0.3154

J.Kennedy

West Coast Eagles

37

24

246

239

0.3212

N.Jones

Melbourne

10

6

66

59

0.322

D.Zaharakis

Essendon

9

7

61

56

0.3231

T.Membrey

St Kilda

26

12

168

162

0.3292

T.McLean

Western Bulldogs

10

7

67

65

0.345

S.Petrevski-Seton

Carlton

7

4

46

41

0.3577

P.Wright

Gold Coast Suns

22

16

148

139

0.3595

D.Heppell

Essendon

7

6

48

47

0.3598

M.LeCras

West Coast Eagles

23

17

155

147

0.3605

B.Gibbs

Carlton

14

10

94

90

0.3642

A.Hall

Gold Coast Suns

10

9

69

64

0.3716

J.Garlett

Melbourne

32

19

211

209

0.3849

S.Burgoyne

Hawthorn

10

8

68

62

0.3951

B.Ainsworth

Gold Coast Suns

9

5

59

56

0.405

C.McCarthy

Fremantle

17

14

116

110

0.4078

Z.Tuohy

Geelong Cats

6

6

42

38

0.4093

R.Gray

Port Adelaide

40

23

263

257

0.4203

M.Wood

North Melbourne

14

11

95

91

0.4219

D.Butler

Richmond

20

9

129

129

0.4234

R.Douglas

Adelaide Crows

7

5

47

42

0.4311

D.Mundy

Fremantle

10

7

67

63

0.4338

P.Dangerfield

Geelong Cats

32

22

214

212

0.439

C.Cameron

Adelaide Crows

20

15

135

133

0.442

D.Rioli

Richmond

14

10

94

93

0.4503

E.Yeo

West Coast Eagles

6

4

40

35

0.453

I.Heeney

Sydney Swans

10

7

67

66

0.4741

J.Ziebell

North Melbourne

7

6

48

45

0.4743

R.Murphy

Western Bulldogs

6

4

40

36

0.4864

J.Schache

Brisbane Lions

8

4

52

50

0.487

T.Cutler

Brisbane Lions

8

6

54

51

0.4978

T.Papley

Sydney Swans

19

14

128

124

0.4997

C.Curnow

Carlton

12

7

79

78

0.5003

R.Henderson

Hawthorn

9

5

59

56

0.5054

D.Swallow

Gold Coast Suns

8

7

55

53

0.5058

S.Lloyd

Richmond

6

6

42

42

0.5105

J.Hill

West Coast Eagles

16

8

104

102

0.5131

T.Taranto

GWS Giants

6

4

40

38

0.5163

J.Lyons

Gold Coast Suns

9

8

62

62

0.5199

P.Ryder

Port Adelaide

8

6

54

55

0.5244

D.Wells

Collingwood

7

4

46

44

0.5245

S.Kersten

Fremantle

17

13

115

113

0.5253

T.Goldstein

North Melbourne

10

5

65

67

0.5277

C.Pedersen

Melbourne

9

5

59

57

0.5323

L.Dahlhaus

Western Bulldogs

7

5

47

46

0.5336

J.Roughead

Hawthorn

23

14

152

152

0.5337

T.Lynch

Adelaide Crows

23

17

155

156

0.5353

D.Martin

Richmond

22

19

151

153

0.5375

T.Mitchell

Hawthorn

9

7

61

59

0.5387

C.Smith

Western Bulldogs

7

4

46

44

0.5404

N.Fyfe

Fremantle

11

11

77

78

0.5467

Z.Merrett

Essendon

5

5

35

33

0.5565

C.Wingard

Port Adelaide

18

17

125

125

0.5637

N.Riewoldt

St Kilda

24

12

156

158

0.5644

W.Hayward

Sydney Swans

13

10

88

87

0.5648

B.Dale

Western Bulldogs

7

6

48

47

0.5734

S.Reid

GWS Giants

10

10

70

70

0.5746

D.Shiel

GWS Giants

9

11

65

67

0.5857

J.Stewart

Essendon

12

8

80

81

0.5862

T.Garner

North Melbourne

10

6

66

66

0.5974

D.Thomas

Carlton

7

4

46

50

0.5979

A.Neal-Bullen

Melbourne

10

7

67

66

0.5987

J.Polec

Port Adelaide

7

10

52

52

0.606

D.Sheed

West Coast Eagles

8

8

56

56

0.613

J.Cripps

West Coast Eagles

15

13

103

105

0.6145

M.Duncan

Geelong Cats

9

8

62

61

0.6149

P.Cripps

Carlton

7

4

46

44

0.6215

D.Moore

Collingwood

21

13

139

139

0.6279

T.Colyer

Essendon

10

9

69

70

0.6292

B.Reid

Collingwood

6

5

41

44

0.6303

K.Turner

North Melbourne

15

8

98

100

0.6308

L.Parker

Sydney Swans

10

11

71

72

0.6373

A.Young

Port Adelaide

10

10

70

73

0.6422

J.Johannisen

Western Bulldogs

6

8

44

45

0.6437

Z.Jones

Sydney Swans

8

5

53

52

0.6479

J.White

Collingwood

5

5

35

36

0.6489

L.Casboult

Carlton

24

14

158

160

0.6528

J.Darling

West Coast Eagles

30

19

199

204

0.6552

S.Grigg

Richmond

9

10

64

70

0.6607

N.Vardy

West Coast Eagles

7

5

47

49

0.6688

J.Waite

North Melbourne

17

16

118

121

0.6751

J.Westhoff

Port Adelaide

10

11

71

72

0.6751

C.Hooker

Essendon

27

15

177

180

0.6801

J.Stringer

Western Bulldogs

24

24

168

174

0.7003

B.Hill

Fremantle

12

11

83

87

0.7155

J.Crisp

Collingwood

6

6

42

43

0.7233

J.Trengove

Port Adelaide

15

10

100

103

0.7286

J.Impey

Port Adelaide

13

10

88

93

0.731

S.Jacobs

Adelaide Crows

6

4

40

44

0.7348

L.McDonald

North Melbourne

6

7

43

45

0.7419

N.Newman

Sydney Swans

5

6

36

39

0.7422

L.Shuey

West Coast Eagles

6

6

42

44

0.7428

J.Redpath

Western Bulldogs

10

7

67

70

0.7467

B.Smith

Adelaide Crows

7

9

51

56

0.7513

L.Picken

Western Bulldogs

12

9

81

86

0.7523

J.Silvagni

Carlton

15

15

105

111

0.7543

L.Taylor

Brisbane Lions

12

13

85

90

0.7579

J.Bruce

St Kilda

26

17

173

181

0.7584

M.Barlow

Gold Coast Suns

10

8

68

72

0.763

L.Shiels

Hawthorn

7

7

49

52

0.7652

O.Wines

Port Adelaide

11

11

77

82

0.7734

J.Sicily

Hawthorn

12

8

80

85

0.7737

G.Rohan

Sydney Swans

10

8

68

75

0.7765

J.Castagna

Richmond

19

15

129

141

0.7904

C.Rioli

Hawthorn

5

7

37

46

0.7923

J.Green

Essendon

15

15

105

113

0.7944

J.Caddy

Richmond

10

12

72

79

0.8052

A.Fasolo

Collingwood

27

25

187

199

0.8109

J.Kelly

GWS Giants

10

14

74

81

0.8121

J.Murdoch

Geelong Cats

6

9

45

51

0.8131

T.Miller

Gold Coast Suns

5

5

35

40

0.8167

S.Johnson

GWS Giants

13

14

92

99

0.8228

I.Smith

Hawthorn

7

11

53

64

0.8241

M.Adams

Western Bulldogs

4

7

31

38

0.8244

B.Grey

Fremantle

8

7

55

61

0.8367

D.Kent

Melbourne

7

6

48

54

0.8396

J.Harmes

Melbourne

9

9

63

71

0.841

J.Viney

Melbourne

5

5

35

41

0.854

J.Barrett

Brisbane Lions

9

9

63

70

0.856

T.Phillips

Collingwood

5

6

36

39

0.8594

K.Jack

Sydney Swans

6

8

44

54

0.8655

P.McCartin

St Kilda

5

8

38

44

0.8711

T.Cloke

Western Bulldogs

6

4

40

45

0.8715

H.Taylor

Geelong Cats

11

10

76

85

0.872

M.Suckling

Western Bulldogs

7

12

54

62

0.8766

S.Edwards

Richmond

7

10

52

63

0.8779

G.Ablett

Gold Coast Suns

8

11

59

67

0.8812

S.Pendlebury

Collingwood

5

7

37

44

0.8846

R.Bewick

Brisbane Lions

6

5

41

47

0.8869

H.Crozier

Fremantle

9

13

67

77

0.8882

S.Higgins

North Melbourne

14

19

103

118

0.8903

S.Ross

St Kilda

4

7

31

38

0.8908

N.Cockatoo

Geelong Cats

7

9

51

61

0.8959

R.Lester

Brisbane Lions

11

8

74

83

0.8972

D.Lang

Geelong Cats

5

5

35

41

0.8987

S.Menegola

Geelong Cats

7

11

53

65

0.9161

J.Hogan

Melbourne

10

6

66

75

0.9174

J.Dunkley

Western Bulldogs

4

6

30

38

0.9182

K.Lambert

Richmond

6

9

45

54

0.9197

S.Gray

Port Adelaide

17

22

124

144

0.9312

M.Kreuzer

Carlton

9

10

64

78

0.9368

T.Broomhead

Collingwood

5

11

41

54

0.9436

J.Newnes

St Kilda

5

7

37

45

0.945

J.McGovern

West Coast Eagles

8

11

59

70

0.9465

M.Bontempelli

Western Bulldogs

16

19

115

136

0.9531

J.Gresham

St Kilda

21

22

148

172

0.9535

J.Billings

St Kilda

16

23

119

141

0.9648

M.McGovern

Adelaide Crows

6

8

44

57

0.9672

H.McCluggage

Brisbane Lions

5

12

42

57

0.969

R.Stanley

Geelong Cats

6

6

42

54

0.971

L.Greenwood

Collingwood

6

13

49

66

0.9714

J.Lonie

St Kilda

5

12

42

61

0.9758

W.Langford

Hawthorn

6

11

47

64

0.9796

J.Steven

St Kilda

6

14

50

69

0.9882

S.Lemmens

Gold Coast Suns

8

13

61

85

0.9935

M.Weller

St Kilda

9

18

72

101

0.995

D.Prestia

Richmond

2

8

20

40

0.9955

T.Bugg

Melbourne

7

12

54

80

0.9994

So there's only a 0.41% chance (or alternatively about a 1 in 250 chance) that Matthew Wright is actually average and his record is that of an average player who got "lucky". This may seem like a tiny chance at face value, but it's important to remember that we are looking at 231 players here, it would certainly not be uncommon to see a few players luck out. A way to be more sure of Wright's skill would be to look at his past season's, but I'll save that for another post.

At the other end of the spectrum we have the "statistically significant" worst kicks in the comp. Given the 19 shots he has taken this year, there's a 99.94% chance that an AFL average player would kick as straight or straighter then Tom Bugg has. Maybe his suspension was a bit of a blessing for the Dees.

You can see clearly from his shotplot that other than 4-5 sitters, he's missed virtually everything else he has attempted.

Mav Weller from St Kilda is a similar story. 99.5% of kickers would do as well or better with his chances this year.

Have a click around and find the best and worst from your club.

Looking solely at set shot kicking could also be enlightening. xScore can sometimes misrate the difficulty of shots from open play, as pressure on the kicker is not known exactly, but rather inferred from other data. If we looked only at set shots we could remove some of this noise and get a better idea of who is actually the sweetest kick in the comp. The problem with this is the sample sizes become a lot smaller. I may have a look at this later on in the year, but as it stands now, Jonathon Patton is by far and away the best set shot.5