NL Notes: Mets, Cardinals, Braves

The Mets made one of the best under-the-radar improvements this offseason by upgrading their outfield defense, ESPN's Mike Petriello writes (Insider-only). With Juan Lagares starting in center field for the entire season, and Curtis Granderson and Chris Young on either side of him, the Mets should be much better off defensively than they were with Lucas Duda and others last season. Petriello also lists the Cardinals' defense, in both the infield and the outfield, as one that should be dramatically improved as a result of this offseason's moves. The Cardinals acquired Peter Bourjos for David Freese, improving their outfield while allowing Matt Carpenter to shift back to third. Another new addition, Mark Ellis, figures to help at second base. Here are more notes from the National League.

Hard to be annoyed with a player who’s averaged 4.6 wins(despite the time missed) a year from his age 20 through his age 23 season.

As far as his injury history goes, I get why people bring it up so much. But he led the team in PA(623) in his rookie year(2010). He did injure his thumb on a head-first slide that season, but that was it and he hit well after returning to the lineup. Dealt with a shoulder injury for a large chunk of 2011. That was his most damaging injury to date. Despite that, he was still a 2-win player in his 128 games. 2012 was a very strong year(6.4 fWAR, 27 HR in 158 games). Last year he dealt with two fluke injuries that limited him to just 104 games. He got off to an incredibly slow start, but slashed .297, .376, .500 from June 1st through the rest of the year(73 games). Power numbers fell, but posted what was by far the lowest K% of his career(16.6%), got his BB back up(10.9%), and posted his highest line-drive% to date(21.4%).

Rasmus is an inferior defender, walks less, strikes out more, and hits for slightly more power. I’d take Heyward and his “injury risk” status over a healthy Rasmus any day.

Freeman is not better than Heyward. Both are going into their age 24 seasons and here are their top 3 wOBA seasons. Freeman-.342, .348, .387. Heyward-.344, .351, .377. The big difference though comes from the rest of their games. Freeman is an OK defensive 1B and slightly below average baserunner, while Heyward is an elite defensive COF and above average baserunner.

The big knock on Heyward was an injury plagued, relatively down season at age 21 and that year he was still worth 2-2.5 WAR. Last year was the first season that Freeman was worth more than 2.5 WAR. Freeman is a good player, but Heyward is better.

I think the real argument so far is that Heyward has a higher ceiling and Freeman is more consistent. What you overlook in your analysis is games played when looking at their line. JHey has practically a full season on Freeman (2010), yet only has 200 PA on Freeman because has played in 147 games or more 3 straight seasons, while JHey has done that only once in four full seasons played (2011: 158 in ’12; 142 in ’10). In the long run, I wouldn’t doubt JHey being the better overall player, but he won’t be the consistent hitter that Freeman will be. Great thing about JHey is that even when he’s not getting on base as much as he should his def makes up for it.

That’s only a couple of months with him with the presumed recipient not getting a compensatory pick if/when he signs elsewhere. Either way, it’d take quite a bit for the Braves to give him up considering they’d be forfeiting the supplemental pick they’d get if he does bolt.

I’m signing the 24yr old gold glove Heyward over a 1B, but Simmons they should sign as quickly as possible. Is it that hard to imagine Simmons filling out and being Hardy in a couple years, but with HOF type glove?
Love Freeman, but a 1B w/not good feet and 25 HR is not the franchise. Heyward can pass in CF to give Upton a break, LF and RF while still being under 25 w/proven speed/power combo.

Line-up protection is, despite the endless prattling of broadcasters desperate to fill airspace, pretty much a non-factor. Freeman hit well last year because he’s becoming a better hitter, regardless of who is hitting behind him.

Lots of comments to my question, but no answer. I asked if Freeman was pitched to differently and as soon as I go to Brooks baseball I’ll let you know. Until then, Heyward will be more valueable than Freeman over his career and players are pitched to differently in diff lineups, men on-base, etc..it is a sport and the human element is a factor. Most of it can be seen in statistical datA, but some of it is hidden like how Freeman was pitched to with JUp in front of him v not in lineup.

It’s certianly not that but it’s just one thing after another every year, his fault or not it’s not a good thing to miss the amount of time he has. I love J Hey and I would love to see him play 162 next year but if I had to sign one it would be Freeman because he has simply outplayed on both levels. We see what buying in on tools and hype did for us last year with BJ.

Agreed, but you can’t deny JHey has missed a lot of extended periods of time for one reason or another (broken jaw, emergency appendectomy (’13), thumb (’10), shoulder (’11), neck strain). Sort of makes you respect the Iron Horse(s) & their consecutive game streaks.

Freeman makes the entire defense better with the stretches and scoops he makes at 1B. His defense is overlooked and he is the only person on the team capable of hitting .300 with power. Heyward might improve but I think he is what he is. I’d say sign Freeman, Teheran, and Simmons. Trading Heyward, and Kimbrel before the start of the 2015 season.

Referencing how a 1B catches a ball? Bc he does the splits? Simmons makes plays standing up that makes Hardy dive. Freeman has no range. Heyward is easily the supreme talent and by this time next year we will see who’s right, but Freeman’s D is against him, not helping his cause. Look at any defensive metric and Freeman has a negative value. Same thing with Miggy who has zero range but good hands.

I’ve been a Braves fan for most of my life, and I really like Heyward, but I can’t help feel like he’s somewhat overrated as a player. We’re talking about a guy with a career OPS under .800. Will he get better as he moves into his mid-late 20s? Probably. But we’re still talking about a guy who has shown a propensity for injury and who hasn’t figured out how to reach his potential after over 500 games played. I still think he can be great, but I hear warning bells in the distance that he may always be what he is now. Which, I guess, is a player that almost every team would love to plug into RF. I just hoped he’d be more by now.

If I’m picking one as owner to be the face of the franchise I’m taking Freeman. Great team player with good avg and power. Heyward is good but we don’t know when and if he will ever stay on the field an entire year.

I’d take Heyward over Freeman, but I think you’re being a bit down on Freeman here. This is a guy who made his debut at the age of 20 and improved in almost every aspect of the game with each year. He was above-average in his age 21 season and put up an MVP-caliber year as a 23-year-old. There’s not much to suggest that he’s already reached his ceiling….

His BAbip has been all over the place so far, and I doubt he’s going to sustain that .371 mark from last year. However, I’m still confident in his ability to hit for more power. I’d bank on his AVG dipping and his HR numbers spiking as he continues to grow as a hitter. At worst…..he’s Adam LaRoche.

All three need to be resigned. That is a extremely solid and extremely marketable trio. All three are very appealing to the fans….down to earth guys, or at least they seem that way.

I know that this may sound strange but I feel like all three of those guys are very approachable whereas some major leaguers come off cold. It’s easy to sell players as fans when they feel like they connect to them. It may be a stupid to say or think that way, but if I had a voice in liberty mutual I would be doing my best to get the money to do so.

The predicament for re-signing JHey is that he’ll be entering FA at just the right age 26-27 where if he can produce good numbers over the next 2 seasons, there’ll be enough teams hoping he’ll keep growing from his incredible potential and give him a crazy deal, pricing him out of ATL. If ATL only can re-sign so many, Freeman, Simmons (not nec in that order) need to be the tops, while Minor/Medlen thereafter.

Its easy to find passable pitching, finding elite defense/offense is hard to find. I would let Medlen walk if it meant signing Simmons, Freeman and Heyward long term. We have enough pitching in our system that if our arms get too expensive we can go younger. And I believe that our new scouting hires will pay huge dividends in the years to come.

I don’t think that’s the case. Sure, there’s a finite amount of money, but JHey is at FA in 2 years, so it’ll take a significant amount of money to buy his FA years, which I don’t think is going to be the case in ATL. They appear very passive with their approach to re-signing the young talent.

And I don’t think Medlen is worth an extension right now. He’s good, but I wonder about him long-term and being consistent throughout an entire season, not really dominant one-half, though what he’s done has been remarkable at times.

I am just sick and tired that the mindset of the fan base based on the current franchise is that we hope and pray for a “hometown discount”. I love that we have homegrown players – because I’m biased in thinking GA is a hot bed of baseball prowess – but to avoid paying top players far under their going rate because of where they’re from is silly.

That being said, if he does bolt for FA, I wouldn’t hold it against him. Like I said before, he’s in a rare spot of being young and during his prime during his free agency. Theo Epstein just said that he wishes there was a free agent market for young players, implying that FA are typically past their prime. With that being said, JHey needs to look out for himself. Unless ATL starts backloading contracts, which would be risking that they WILL make money from the stadium move in 2017 (a risky proposition), then they probably wouldn’t be able to extend JHey if he reaches FA.

I really like the Braves as a franchise and hold a lot of respect for everything they’ve done the past 25* years. With that said, as a Cardinals fan I’d like to see Simmons, Freeman and Heyward traded to the American League.

The problem with the Mets though is that by adding Granderson, you’ve got a guy who, yeah maybe he’s an above-average defender, but his game is now all power. Good luck with him in Citi Field. Seems like a foolish signing to me…

The citi field argument is a misnomer. Since they moved the fences in the park has played fairly neutral to home runs. The only people who don’t seem able to hit home runs there are the Mets…Granderson seems like a smart enough hitter to tailor his approach to his home ballpark (i.e. Trying to yank the ball down the rightfield line in the Yankee Staduim band box). He’s played in, and been successful in big ballparks before. He should be fine.

So because one guy, who put up fluke numbers in Boston, had a bad year and then slammed his head into a wall, causing concussion symptoms which eventually led to his retirement, is a great comparison for Curtis Granderson? You’re kidding, right?

I feel the most important part of having Granderson is not his bat, but the protection he brings for Ike Davis and David Wright. It’s the first time Wright will having a *known* power threat since Carlos Delgado, and the first time Ike Davis will have another lefty power bat in the order. I feel the best work Granderson will be doing is helping others. Not complaining.

Problem with Grandy is that offensively, he’s evolved into Adam Dunn, with fewer walks. Grandy will also not hit 30 dingers playing regularly in Citi Field. But he’s surely a decent fielder and a good guy, and a winner.

Maybe, but if half his homers from 2012 turn into flyouts, he’ll be a better fielding Jason Bay. Not sure at all why the Mets wanted to pay him this much – in spite of what’s been said, he’s a horrible fit for the Mets.

I think the Cardinals are as good as last year, but not better. Essentially, in the infield, the Cards are surrendering David Freese for Mark Ellis. It’s a defensive upgrade, but a downgrade offensively, because while Freese had a down year, his potential as a 20 homer .280 hitter is well above what Ellis will provide. And in the outfield, Bourjos hasn’t shown any batting ability that places him above Jon Jay, and Oscar Taveras, their top prospect, is being asked to replace Carlos Beltran. Jhonny Peralta’s never played in the NL, so he may have to adjust a little, but he’s still a big upgrade over Pete Kozma. It’s a lot of piece changes; but I’m not sure that the defensive needs were as great as assumed, especially with a starting group that has big arms and lofty K numbers. But no fear – the Cardinals are still the best team in the NL, and are the favorite to return to the Fall Classic.

Maybe Bourjous will be a 4th OF or platoon option with Jay…they might battle it out? I think Tavares will be given every shot at earning a job. I mean Craig is locked down in one spot, but the other two can be up for grabs between Bourjous, Jay, Tavares, even Adams (LF) and anyone else I’m leaving out ;D.

Yea I think them not signing Beltran was a bit of a mishap on their part as they could of used the protection of his bat in the lineup still but they probably felt his defense wouldn’t hold up anymore (which I disagree with honestly).

Congratulations to the Cardinals by getting better through trades. As a Dodger fan, I didn’t think it was possible for them to improve much but they have clearly surpassed expectations. Jettisoning the Freese enigma for speedy Bourjois and thereby eliminating the defensive cement block John Jay, sliding Carpenter over to 3rd and letting a platoon of Mark Ellis and Kolton Wong forge into a strong tandem will only help Wong’s development. The biggest addition may be a healthy Allen Craig in the lineup. Here’s to another showdown for the NL pennant!

Im a Cards fan. And I have to say I like Dodgers approach as well. I feel Josh Beckett could be your dark horse this year. Realistically, hes got good enough stuff to be bad 2 or good no 3. But right now he projects as the no 4 or no 5 starter.

I don’t like the Peralta signing though. Some may see it as a shrewd move but for an organization who is widely known for signing character guys and playing the game “the right way,” I was disappointed with them rewarding a steroid user with a sizable contract. I don’t think getting suspended and then having a multimillion dollar contract as another result really counts as punishment.

Beckett may prove me wrong but I am looking forward to getting Billingsly back after the all-star break. He’ always had a strong body and I hope this surgery fixes a derailed, promising career.

Though it pains me to see him on Stl., I hope Bourjois finds his niche at the top of the order and in the outfield. I f he can just hit/get on base consistently, PB will be one of the more exciting players to watch. Almost like Jose Reyes was for the Mets when he first came up.

Having watched him with the Sox, I personally feel Beckett is done. Totally. He’s lost a good 5 mph off his fastball, and I think he’s lost the will to be a star pitcher. I don’t see him in the starting five for the Dodgers; he might be a sixth starter/long reliever, and when Billingsley gets back, Beckett gets released.

I don’t think there is anyway the Braves will add the necessary payroll to extend all three and still field a competitive team. My preferences would be to sign Simmons first, then try to sign Freeman. Let Heyward play out this season and hopefully put up decent enough numbers so the Braves could move him for some high ceiling prospects.

Then there’s Minor, Medlen, Teheran, and J. Upton. Some would list Kimbrel as well, but he’s more unlikely to sign than Heyward at this point. I’m obviously thrilled that they have so much young talent, but we might be seeing quite a roster turnover in a couple of years….

The Braves will have to do what the Cardinals did, which is let someone walk so they can sign the others long term. The Cards let Pujols go, then used the money to extend Molina, Craig and Wainwright and still had the money to sign Beltran. It’s tough to do, but it all has worked well so far. (knock on wood!)

Knock on Alex Wood lol…nice…it would only be a Minor risk that I wouldn’t beat my head against a drum to decide on. You know keep it simple like Freddi got fingered…I don’t know…maybe I need to go to the medical venters and get this weird head of mine looked at. Who knows? Too much blitzcraig!

I totally agree with you, however when was the last time the Braves actually traded a major league piece for prospects? My best guess is that Heyward is either extended for a lot more money than the Braves are comfortable paying him or he walks in 2 years and the Braves get a compensation pick.
Also keep in mind that both Heyward and J-Up hit free agency in the same year. I have a feeling the Braves cannot afford to lose 2/3 of their outfield in one off-season, especially since by then they will be 1 year removed from moving into a new stadium. So my bet is that Heyward gets his extension.

I have a feeling one big name will be unloaded for a bash of prospects. We will get a Tex haul for someone …. lol..the shoe coming on our foot this time around. I think that this will happen. John Hart will see to that…