Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates
against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy
infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take
time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take
effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to
renewable energies will require additional investment and higher
supply costs over about twenty years

5.5 heating supply

Today, renewables meet 2.4% of Netherlands’s primary heat demand, the main contribution coming from the use of biomass. The expansion and extended use of district heating networks are important for the large scale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy. Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic development. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 24% of Netherlands’s total heat demand in 2030 and 65% in 2050.

• Energy efficiency measures help to reduce the currently growing energy demand for heating by 29% in 2050 (relative to the Reference scenario), in spite of improving living standards.

• A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications leads to a further reduction of CO2 emissions.

Table 5.2 shows the development of the different renewable technologies for heating in Netherlands over time. Biomass will remain the main contributor of the growing renewable market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share of geothermal heat pumps will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels.