In its worst-case scenario, Gartner expects the industry to fall 33 percent from 2008’s sales of $256.4 billion. That would shave $85 billion from the industry — or more than twice Intel’s sales last year. Given the difficulty Gartner is having predicting such an uncertain market — something echoed by industry executives — the worst case seems plausible.

”We believe that the financial crisis has reset the semiconductor market,” said Bryan Lewis, research vice president at Gartner, in a statement. ”After the 2001 recession, in which semiconductor sales plummeted by a record 32.5 percent, semiconductor sales took about four years to get back to 2000 levels.