The Problem with Punditry, Common Core, and 2016

A Conversation with Former Alabama Governor Bob Riley and Former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford Jr.

It’s December 2014, and we all know what that means—the news media and politicians are in full 2016 presidential election mode. It’s as if the midterms of only a month ago never happened. The prognosticators have all moved on to prognosticating about something new. It’s important to change the subject quickly—lest you remember their predictions about how close the midterms would be, how Mitch McConnell may lose, that Texas may elect a Democratic governor…the list goes on.

Should we be surprised academic studies show pundits are worse at making predictions than if they were making random guesses?

And so as we move on to 2016, much discussion focuses on Common Core educational standards. While many pundits have tried to claim candidates supporting these minimum standards will struggle in the primaries, the data simply doesn’t show this.

I sat down with two experts on the issue, former Alabama Governor Bob Riley (R) and former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford Jr. (D), who were both confused by all the claims Common Core could be a litmus test in the presidential primaries. “If you’d asked me that six months ago, I would have given you a completely different answer,” said Riley. “But after looking at the election results in Alabama and across the country, I think, if anything, you’re going to see higher standards actually promoted.”

Common Core seems to create the strangest of bedfellows, with the Tea Party and teachers unions showing similar inclinations to halt educational reforms. There were efforts, especially in the GOP, to unseat candidates who supported Common Core. But governors and state superintendents still overwhelmingly support it. Riley pointed to conservative Ohio Governor John Kasich’s continued support for the standards. Kasich cruised to victory, and he even received 26% of the African American vote.

Former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford Jr.

While some activists are itching to halt the presidential aspirations of Common Core supporters, like Kasich and Jeb Bush, they should take heed. There’s a good reason why Common Core supporters fared well in the midterms. A GOP pollster asked conservative Republican primary voters about the issue earlier this year. When voters were presented with arguments for and against the standards, a generic candidate supporting the standards polled significantly higher.

Former Alabama Gov. Bob Riley

In another poll, conducted on Election Day, voters said they approved of the standards by a two-to-one margin. Republicans and independents approved by a 28-point margin. The popularity extended even to many key GOP constituencies, including the “very conservative,” Tea Party supporters, and born-again Christians.

With special interests offering so much vocal opposition, why does Common Core continue to be a strength for candidates? Ford argues it’s because “parents listened and weighed both sides. They came to understand there were biggains being made in classrooms across the country.”

Some conservatives attack Common Core as a program created by the Obama Administration. The truth is that the Common Core was an effort led by the states, including those headed by conservative governors, to set minimum standards so that a student graduating in Alabama would have the same basic levels of knowledge as a student graduating in California. Riley and Ford point out that the amount spent by companies and colleges on remedial education has skyrocketed in recent years because of different standards across states.

“This was designed by governors to make sure there was a firewall between the federal government coming in and dictating policy to each individual state,” says Riley, who is a conservative Republican. He says the policy is all about local control. “This system allows a local superintendent or an elected board in a small community to determine how to get from point A to point B. –Point B being a standard that all governors want to meet. They don’t dictate policy. They don’t dictate textbooks. They don’t dictate how you do it.”

So why the opposition? The federal Department of Education has encouraged states to adopt Common Core through a program called Race to the Top. Riley and Ford both say this current debate never would have happened if the administration hadn’t made that “mistake.” Even though the policy was driven by conservative Republicans and control is entirely local, some activists view anything remotely associated with Obama as toxic.

But the fact of the matter remains that parents want good policies to help their children succeed. In this case, say Riley and Ford, parents are seeing the success firsthand, and that’s more important than any unsubstantiated pundit claims.

About the Author

Shawn is the Publisher of InsideSources. Previously, he served as Iowa Communications Director for the Romney Campaign and has advised other campaigns nationwide. Shawn has an MBA, concentrated in econometrics and statistics, from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and he completed his undergraduate work at the University of Notre Dame. He has a dog named Milton, after his favorite economist.

One response to The Problem with Punditry, Common Core, and 2016

The surveys you refer to are the same two surveys. Collaborative for Student Success’ partner list reads like a who’s who of Gates backed NPOs and Common Core profiteers. Of course people who are uninformed would agree that “a set of standards in Math and English which state what a child should know in both subjects by the end of each grade of school they complete” and get support among voters. The supposedly “rigged” question starts with “75 percent of teachers support common core”. Again, uninformed people will agree with that statement because we implicitly trust teachers. When you start showing people all of the money that’s behind CC, all of the problems with computer based assessment, the convoluted math curriculum a very different picture emerges.

Your site touts that you are for people that are “tired of talking points” yet you trout out the same tired talking points CC peddlers have been pushing since its inception. “The truth is that the Common Core was an effort led by the states, including those headed by conservative governors.” It was led by the National Governor’s Association. The NGA is a private lobbying group made up of *appointed* representatives, not the actual governors of the 50 states. The Council of Chief State School Officers is also an organization of political appointees like Massachusetts’ ed commissioner Mitchell Chester, not teachers, principals or superintendents. The representatives from these organizations were not chosen by the people, nor are they accountable to anyone.

This is another complete BS statement: “‘This was designed by governors to make sure there was a firewall between the federal government coming in and dictating policy to each individual state,’ says Riley, who is a conservative Republican. He says the policy is all about local control.” If it’s about local control why were RttT waivers and grants tied to the acceptance of Common Core–BEFORE THE STANDARDS WERE EVEN COMPLETE!

“They don’t dictate policy. They don’t dictate textbooks. They don’t dictate how you do it” The nature of standards is that they lead to a de facto curricula. The measurements to ensure states are meeting the standards are the PARCC and SBAC tests. If students need to know A,B,C,D and E on your punch list, and teachers and districts are being evaluated on the results of the test, self-preservation will lead to a common curriculum. MA Ed Commish Chester said PARCC is “a test worth teaching to.” CC financier Bill Gates also points this out in a 2009 speech to legislators:

“Fortunately, the state-led Common Core State Standards Initiative is developing clear, rigorous common standards that match the best in the world. Last month, 46 Governors and Chief State School Officers made a public commitment to embrace these common standards.”

“This is encouraging—but identifying common standards is not enough. ####We’ll know we’ve succeeded when the curriculum and the tests are aligned to these standards.####” (emphasis mine).

For an organization that touts itself as bipartisan and above the fray this sure read like a piece of paid propaganda.