Stratfor's 11 Predictions For the Next Ten Years: #1 Russia Will Collapse....

He's gone from serious analyst to...I don't know what. Gold's going
lower and Russia is Russia, where people with an actual understanding of
the place travel in armored Mercedes limos and have a hidey-hole in
London....

There's no reason to buy this but here's the Russia ETF for those who don't have Putin's cell number:

Grant started buying Russia in May 2014 and went for broke in November-December.
I think I'll listen to him on interest rates but maybe not equities.
And for those contemplating Russian sovereign debt, one last self-ref from July 2014's "Betting Big on Russian Bonds":

While international analysts often try their hand at predicting the
major events of the coming year, Stratfor believes that it's identified
the major trends of the next 10.

In many ways, Stratfor thinks the world a decade from now will be
more dangerous place, with US power waning and other prominent countries
experiencing a period of chaos and decline.

Russia will collapse ...

"There will not be an uprising against Moscow, but
Moscow's withering ability to support and control the Russian Federation
will leave a vacuum," Stratfor warns. "What will exist in this vacuum
will be the individual fragments of the Russian Federation."

Sanctions, declining oil prices, a plunging ruble, rising military
expenses, and increasing internal discord will weaken the hold of
Russia's central government over the world's largest country. Russia
will not officially split into multiple countries, but Moscow's power
may loosen to the point that Russia will effectively become a string of
semiautonomous regions that might not even get along with one another.

"We expect Moscow's authority to weaken substantially, leading to the
formal and informal fragmentation of Russia" the report states, adding,
"It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current
form."

... and the US will have to use its military to secure the country's nukes.

Russia's nuclear-weapons infrastructure is spread across a vast
geographic area. If the political disintegration Stratfor predicts ever
happens, it means that weapons, fissile materials, and delivery systems
could end up exposed in what will suddenly become the world's most
dangerous power vacuum.

The breakout of Russia's nuclear-weapons stockpile will be "the greatest crisis of the next decade," according to Stratfor.

And the US will have to figure out what to do about it, even if it
means dispatching ground troops to secure loose weapons, materials, and
missiles.

"Washington is the only power able to address the issue,
but it will not be able to seize control of the vast numbers of sites
militarily and guarantee that no missile is fired in the process," the
Decade Forecast states. "The United States will either have to invent a
military solution that is difficult to conceive of now, accept the
threat of rogue launches, or try to create a stable and economically
viable government in the regions involved to neutralize the missiles
over time."

Germany is going to have problems ...

Germany has an export-dependent economy that has richly benefited
from the continent-wide trade liberalization enabled through the EU and
the euro, but that just means the country has the most to lose from a
worsening euro crisis and a resulting wave of euroscepticism.

The country's domestic consumption can't make up for this dip in
Germany's export economy or for a projected decline in population. The
result is Japan-style stagnation.
"We expect Germany to suffer severe economic reversals in the next decade," the Decade Forecast says.

....Russia
It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its
current form. Russia's failure to transform its energy revenue into a
self-sustaining economy makes it vulnerable to price fluctuations.
It has no defense against these market forces. Given the organization
of the federation, with revenue flowing to Moscow before being
distributed directly or via regional governments, the flow of resources
will also vary dramatically. This will lead to a repeat of the Soviet
Union's experience in the 1980s and Russia's in the 1990s, in which
Moscow's ability to support the national infrastructure declined. In
this case, it will cause regions to fend for themselves by forming
informal and formal autonomous entities. The economic ties binding the
Russian periphery to Moscow will fray.

Historically, the Russians solved such problems via the secret police
— the KGB and its successor, the Federal Security Services (FSB). But
just as in the 1980s, the secret police will not be able to contain the
centrifugal forces pulling regions away from Moscow this decade. In this
case, the FSB's power is weakened by its leadership's involvement in
the national economy. As the economy falters, so does the FSB's
strength. Without the FSB inspiring genuine terror, the fragmentation of
the Russian Federation will not be preventable.

To Russia's west, Poland, Hungary and Romania will seek to recover
regions lost to the Russians at various points. They will work to bring
Belarus and Ukraine into this fold. In the south, the Russians' ability
to continue controlling the North Caucasus will evaporate, and Central
Asia will destabilize. In the northwest, the Karelian region will seek
to rejoin Finland. In the Far East, the maritime regions more closely
linked to China, Japan and the United States than to Moscow will move
independently. Other areas outside of Moscow will not necessarily seek
autonomy but will have it thrust upon them. This is the point: There
will not be an uprising against Moscow, but Moscow's withering ability
to support and control the Russian Federation will leave a vacuum. What
will exist in this vacuum will be the individual fragments of the
Russian Federation.

This will create the greatest crisis of the next decade. Russia is
the site of a massive nuclear strike force distributed throughout the
hinterlands. The decline of Moscow's power will open the question of who
controls those missiles and how their non-use can be guaranteed. This
will be a major test for the United States. Washington is the only power
able to address the issue, but it will not be able to seize control of
the vast numbers of sites militarily and guarantee that no missile is
fired in the process. The United States will either have to invent a
military solution that is difficult to conceive of now, accept the
threat of rogue launches, or try to create a stable and economically
viable government in the regions involved to neutralize the missiles
over time. It is difficult to imagine how this problem will play out.
However, given our forecast on the fragmentation of Russia, it follows
that this issue will have to be addressed, likely in the next decade.