Statistical Model for Multiparty Electoral Data (ICPSR 1190)

In this collection, a comprehensive statistical model for
analyzing multiparty, district-level elections is proposed. This
model, which provides a tool for comparative politics research
analogous to what regression provides in the American two-party
context, can be used to explain or predict how geographic
distributions of electoral results depend upon economic conditions,
neighborhood ethnic compositions, campaign spending, and other
features of the election campaign or aggregate areas. Also provided
are new graphical representations for data exploration, model
evaluation, and substantive interpretation. The authors illustrate the
use of this model by attempting to resolve a controversy over the size
of and trend in the electoral advantage of incumbency in
Britain. Contrary to previous analyses, all based on measures now
known to be biased, the research demonstrates that the advantage is
small but meaningful, varies substantially across parties, and is not
growing. Finally, the authors show how to estimate from which party
each other party's advantage is predominantly drawn.

In this collection, a comprehensive statistical model for
analyzing multiparty, district-level elections is proposed. This
model, which provides a tool for comparative politics research
analogous to what regression provides in the American two-party
context, can be used to explain or predict how geographic
distributions of electoral results depend upon economic conditions,
neighborhood ethnic compositions, campaign spending, and other
features of the election campaign or aggregate areas. Also provided
are new graphical representations for data exploration, model
evaluation, and substantive interpretation. The authors illustrate the
use of this model by attempting to resolve a controversy over the size
of and trend in the electoral advantage of incumbency in
Britain. Contrary to previous analyses, all based on measures now
known to be biased, the research demonstrates that the advantage is
small but meaningful, varies substantially across parties, and is not
growing. Finally, the authors show how to estimate from which party
each other party's advantage is predominantly drawn.

Access Notes

These data are flagged as replication datasets
and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material.
Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

The public-use data files in this collection are available for access by the general public.
Access does not require affiliation with an ICPSR member institution.

(1) The file submitted is katzking.zip. The zip file
is binary and contains a README file and program and data files. (2)
These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are
distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has
not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the
investigator(s) if further information is desired.