Paris Atrocities – beginning of the end for the Jihadists?

Posted on Tuesday 1st December 2015

Former war correspondent and author of The Jihadist Threat Paul Moorcraft draws on his experiences to comment on recent tragic events in Paris and the effect they may have on the Islamic State.
The Paris atrocities may herald the final days of the Islamic State.
Until recently the Jihadists’ amazingly rapid success made them
seem invincible. And to many Muslims it did seem that Allah was
backing the return of the caliphate. For a while it looked like the
West would have to do a deal – as it did with the expansionist
Ottoman caliphate that almost seized Vienna – twice. And just as in
the time of the great Arab conquests after the death of Muhammad in
the seventh century, the disunity of the rival powers, especially in
Europe and the Middle East, allowed the Jihadists to conquer.
The tables are turning, however. The recent foreign attacks – Tunisia,
Ankara, the bombing of the Russian plane flying from Sharm, then
Beirut and now Paris – suggest the growing reach of the Islamic
State. In fact it may indicate weakness. The power of the Kurdish
militias inside Syria and Iraq plus Turkey’s tightening of its
southern borders are making it harder for foreign believers to get
into the new caliphate. It is running out of Western cannon fodder –
one reason why it is urging its foreign supporters to take up arms at
home. IS is also losing some of its top leadership to constant drone
and bombing attacks. It is unclear how closely IS Central actually
runs the foreign attacks, which in the case of Paris this month were
well armed and carefully planned.
Paris also grabbed media attention away from a domestic IS crisis. Kurdish
peshmerga special forces plus Yazidi volunteers, backed by US and
British special forces and air power, managed to seize a large part
of Sinjar town from IS control. This cut the supply route between the
caliphate’s two main centres in Iraq and Syria, Mosul and Raqqah.
Other alternative routes are much longer and are open to air
interdiction.
IS meant to deter its enemies with the Paris and the Sharm spectaculars.
Instead it has provoked them and united many enemies against the
caliphate. And not just Russia, Egypt and France. Even the erstwhile
double-dealing Saudis have had enough (though some rich Saudis and
Gulf individuals may still be funding the beheaders in IS).
Nevertheless, the UN Security Council could unite for a rare new
resolution to take on the warrior state. IS has no formal allies
left. It is being beaten on the ground and in the air though not in
cyberspace.
The dream of a Jihadist caliphate will not die, but the collapse of IS
will mean the end of the belief that Allah has backed this caliphate
as He did the ones immediately after Muhammad. The psychopathic virus
of murderous Jihadism will morph into another perhaps more dangerous
manifestation just as parts of al-Qaeda became Islamic State.
There was a case for recognising the Islamic state and dealing with it as
the West did with the aggressive Ottoman caliphate. What the West
considered crazy Islamist nutjobs could be persuaded to emigrate but
not come back. Having your main enemies cooped up in one smallish
place has advantages over worldwide threats. Both together are
intolerable. IS must be destroyed and it is now time for the Royal
Air Force to join the Russian, French and American air forces and
special forces, plus the brave Kurds, and even the revived Syrian
army, in wiping out the religious cancer that is devouring the Middle
East. And better to have Arab Muslim troops involved maybe from
Jordan or even Saudi Arabia. The crisis in the region is mainly about
toxic Islam, not least the chasm between Sunni and Shia. Let Muslims
lead in the reforming solutions to IS both in Syria and Iraq ─ and
in mosques in Britain and France.
It is the beginning of the end for IS, but the endgame is likely to be medieval, shocking and may be prolonged.
Professor
Paul Moorcraft, currently the Director of the Centre for Foreign
Policy Analysis, London, has long worked at the heart of the British
security establishment and has operated as a war correspondent in
over thirty conflict zones since Afghanistan in the 1980s, often
alongside frontline Jihadists. Arguably no-one is better qualified to
write on this subject and his knowledge coupled with forthright views
cannot be ignored.
Moorcraft formerly served in the Rhodesian/Zimbabwean Police and worked
closely with the British armed forces for many years. He has written numerous books based on his experiences including the
recently reissued The Rhodesian War and his newest release, The
Jihadist Threat: The Re-Conquest of the West?.

Further Reading

The Jihadist Threat(Hardback - 174 pages)
ISBN: 9781473856790

by Paul Moorcraft Only £19.99

This timely and controversial book examines the international and domestic threats to the West from Jihadism. It joins the dots in the Middle East, Asia and Africa and explains what it means for the home front, mainly Britain but also continental Europe and the USA. More Brits are trying to join the Islamic State than the reserve forces. Why? It puts the whole complex jigsaw together without pulling any punches.
After briefly tracing the origins of Jihadism from the time of the Prophet, The Jihadist Threat analyses the fall-out…Read more at Pen & Sword Books...

more by this author...
A complete list of titles by Paul Moorcraft for Pen and Sword Books can be found here.