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“The economists at

USDA have projected it to be the strongest year basically in history for corn and soybeans,” USDA spokesman Matthew Herrick said.

Texas' corn production is a drop in the bucket compared with the Midwest's, but corn still ranks among the state's top five crops.

“We're looking at tight supplies and high prices, and it's not because we're eating corn, but turning it into fuel,” said Mark Welch, an economist at Texas A&M University.

Corn is used to produce ethanol, which can be mixed with gasoline to fuel automobiles and is considered a clean-burning “renewable” fuel.

Still, reports on Friday suggest the price rally may be ending.

The economists predicted that by the 2014 harvest, corn inventories would build to 2.2 billion bushels, an amount not seen since 1988. That could ultimately push prices down from a record $8.49 a bushel in August to about $4.80 a bushel this year.

The break-even price is between $4.50 and $4.80 a bushel, Welch said, but the USDA report was based on record-high yields and doesn't factor in the advantage Central and South Texas farmers have — being able to come to market early.

“If you look at futures prices right now or corn prices right now in the United States, corn is still trading for around $7 a bushel,” Welch said. “We're in a downward trek, but if you can get in on the front end of that, there might be an opportunity to get some $6 corn.”

“You might be seeing in the news that people are saying that anybody who can plant corn is,” Pruitt said. “However, for the state of Texas, when you look at it, our guys are very much dependent on the weather. And they've been hit with the drought two years now.”

Cotton farmers, for example, are eyeing prices set artificially high by stockpiles in China, and they're weighing switches to alternatives such as grain sorghum, which is in high demand in Mexico and other key export markets.

Farmers in South Texas are making planting decisions now.

“How many years of this kind of drought have we had? 2010 was a break, but '08 was dry, '09 was dry, '11 was the dryness from hell,” A&M economist John Robinson said. “Last year wasn't as bad as 2011, but conditions are bad, and it makes it very uncertain for growers.”

Jeff Nunley, executive director of the South Texas Cotton & Grain Association, said growers were in general “short of moisture.”

“They're kind of in a holding pattern,” he said. “Some of them are planting, but some of them are waiting to see if we get more moisture before they start planting,” he said.

The farther north along the Gulf Coast, he said, the better the moisture.

“It's a year of have or have-not,” he said. “What it comes down to is where you are. I feel for the guy down south of Corpus, this is the third year that they're suffering through the drought.”