You have a lot riding on this year’s Oscar pool—between $50 and $100 of your co-workers’ money, a year’s reign as your office’s most knowledgeable employee on all things Hollywood, and an hour’s worth of social-media bragging rights. With just 13 days(!) until the winner of these prizes is determined, you owe it to yourself to take Sunday night’s BAFTA Awards as the rainy Oscar indicator that it can be, and trust our last-minute adjustment advice, detailed by major category, below.

Best Actor: Hold Steady with Daniel Day-Lewis (Obviously)

As predicted, the Lincolnstar won the best-actor honor at this year’s BAFTAs—this time surprising the audience by poking fun at his notoriously intense Method preparations. “Just on the chance I might one day have to speak on an evening such as this,” Day-Lewis teased, “I’ve actually stayed in character as myself for the last 55 years and had a various selection of BAFTA sets downscaled, dating from the late fifties, placed in every single room of every house I’ve ever lived in. And every time I rise from a chair, it spontaneously unleashes a soundtrack of thunderous applause, with a few boos and some drunken hecklers.”

In perhaps the biggest upset of the evening, 85-year-old Emmanuelle Riva beat out Jennifer Lawrence based on Riva’s heartbreaking work in Michael Haneke’s French drama Amour. Several outlets noted that there were audible gasps following the announcement and a cutaway to Lawrence revealed that her seatmate, Silver Linings Playbook director, David O. Russell, seemed just as shocked as the rest of the audience. Although Lawrence has swept the best-actress awards until now, Deadline notes, a BAFTA game changer in the category is not unprecedented: in 2008, Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose) surprisingly bested Golden Globe and SAG winner Julie Christie (Away from Her) at the BAFTAs before going on to take the Oscar. In other Academy-precedence notes, voters have famously prized sentimentality in the past. Considering that the Oscars takes place on Emmanuelle Riva’s 86th birthday, and a win would mean she would become the oldest best-actress honoree in history, she fully meets sentimental qualifications. AndAmour has already proven itself popular among Academy voters: the film earned a nearly unprecedented five nominations for a foreign title, including major categories such as best actress and best director.

Best Supporting Actor: Risk-Averse Betters Should Side with Christoph Waltz

Christoph Waltz gained an even greater advantage over his closest competitor, Tommy Lee Jones, with last night’s BAFTA win. The best-supporting-actor category has materialized as the tightest one, with each of the nominees already holding at least one Oscar in his possession. While we previously thought that the Academy might side with Jones, since his last win was in 1994 (as opposed to Waltz’s win three years ago), the only time that Jones has triumphed in the category at a major awards show this season was at the SAG Awards, where Waltz was not nominated. Although Robert De Niro seems to be accelerating his Oscar campaign in pursuit of a third Little Gold Man, our money is on Waltz. Even more incentive to err with the Django Unchained actor: the BAFTAs and the Oscars matched winners in each of the six major categories last year.

As anticipated, the Les Misérablesactress and category favorite won the BAFTA last night and, even better, physical contact with George Clooney. After taking her trophy from Clooney, who presented the award, and walking toward the podium, Hathaway retraced her steps to embrace the actor. “What am I thinking?” she told the audience. “I almost walked past George Clooney without hugging him. That’s just stupid.”

Best Director: Feel Embarrassed for the Academy—Roll Between Ang Lee, David O. Russell, and Steven Spielberg

Ben Affleck’s Oscar-Snub Vindication Tour continued at last night’s BAFTAs, where the director collected another redemptive trophy and managed to summon a genuinely surprised reaction for his latest consecutive win. At this point, it is largely considered an embarrassment to the Directors’ Branch of the Academy, which overlooked the Argofilmmaker (as well as Kathryn Bigelow and Quentin Tarantino). We suggest that ballot voters write in Affleck’s name in an attempt to make history with the second-ever write-in victory. (The first, according toThe Hollywood Reporter, occurred in 1935 with Hal Mohr’s cinematography win for A Midsummer Night’s Dream). We also suggest that the Director’s Branch transfer school districts and wait until the scandal blows over before quietly transferring back. For Oscar-poolers, this wild-card category is your chance to edge out your competitors. The safe bet is on Spielberg, for rallying Daniel Day-Lewis and screenwriter Tony Kushner and commandeering a decades-long production to make Lincoln.

Best Picture: Keep Your Money on Argo

With the Golden Globe, Producers Guild Award, Directors Guild Award, SAG Award, and now the BAFTA under its belt, Argo is the best bet going into February 24’s Academy Awards.

__In Other BAFTA News:__Congratulations to Skyfall for finally winning a major award, Outstanding British Film, at last night’s ceremony! For those who were busy watching the Grammys, Helen Mirren, nominated for her work in Hitchcock, was with you in spirit. The 67-year-old actress had dyed her hair a sassy pink for the BAFTAs. Finally, for anyone who has ever deferred to the British for their highbrow artistic taste, a counterpoint: On Sunday night, during the ceremony’s opening montage of the best films of 2012, BAFTA boldly elected to include Will Ferrell punching a baby, a sequence from last year’s forgettable comedy The Campaign, and a cutaway to a present-day Sylvester Stallone amid shots from Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, and Argo.