“Trump can’t afford to lose.” He has the “biggest incentive” to dig into his position with “more to lose than the Democrats do. This shutdown was neither necessary nor inevitable…. It was the president who delivered the ultimatum: Fund the wall, he demanded, or he’d be “’proud to shut down the government for border security.’” Without an “outright victory,” Trump will lose “a fight that he picked. He’d end the shutdown weaker than he started. And some of his most ardent supporters could well turn on him for selling them out on his signature issue, affecting his re-election in 2020.” Still, “none of this guarantees a Trump victory.”

“The Trump administration is on the verge of launching a global trade war, the magnitude of which the world hasn’t seen in a century….If all the threatened Trump tariffs take effect, and the targeted countries respond with the expected retaliatory tariffs on American exports, everyone will lose.”

“While Trump and some in the White House argue that China has much more to lose in a trade war than does the United States, they may be underestimating Xi’s resolve to appear unwavering in the face of attacks from China’s main economic rival, the United States.”