Correlation or Correction?

Bloomberg turns Le-Min Lim’s Asia Week preview into a gloomy take on the correlation of the art and financial markets. The big news in the article is Artprice.com’s Pierre Capelle’s claim that the art market correlates to the financial markets but lags “by three to four days.” A misquote? It’s hard to see how such a periodic market as the art market could be in such close correlation to a constant market like the financials. Even a Three-to-four month lag would seem tightly linked and closer than any previous claims.

Art prices won’t escape the effects of the drop in financial markets, said Pierre Capelle, manager of econometrics department at Artprice.com. “The art-market movement is completely co-related to the stock and currency markets,” said Capelle, lagging behind by “three to four days.” The Artprice Global Index, which tracks sales of fine-art works, fell in the January to July period, the first decline in six years, said Capelle. Based on Artprice.com’s online survey of its members, about 49 percent polled say sentiment on the economic climate is “unfavorable.”

How does this impact the Asian art market? Dealers there are mixed in their opinions:

Still, buyers may be surprised by the resilience of the Asian art market, said Shirley Ben Bashat, who runs Opera Gallery in Hong Kong. She said traffic at her gallery unexpectedly increased after Lehman’s bankruptcy as people moved money from the stock market to art. [ . . . ]

“I wouldn’t rule out a surprise,” said art-dealer Tian, 34. “Asia’s art market might be more resilient than thought.”