Analysis and comment from Memphis, Tennessee, on media, politics, culture, science, my life and anything else that catches my eye.

Thursday, September 29, 2005

Early Adopter

Polar Donkey speculates on the 2007 Memphis mayoral race. He seems to think Harold Ford, Jr will run and that Shelby County Demcratic Party infighting will open up a power vacuum for someone to exploit.

Ummm... yeah. Young Master Harold simply does not have what it takes to be a mayor. Nor does it seem to me that his ego will accept what is most certainly a "demotion" and the loss of the national media stage he currently enjoys. Yes, he would be appropriately "corporate" in the Herenton mold; he would be less secretive; he's widely viewed as pro-business. But he's also an openly partisan Democrat where Herenton affects a much less politicised image. Many business leaders won't like that at all.

My best guess is Harold stays in the Senate race and loses. Then he goes back to the House, but finds himself, in trying to take the seat back, in a real electoral contest for the first time. He might win, though that will depend on where the family's media circus is by then. Will Unka John be on trial? How badly will Aunty Ophy implode during her brief tenure in the State Senate? Will the mysterious Memphis-Miami connection in the Tennessee Waltz investigation ever show a link between the Fords and the Shelby County Democrats being indicted right now?

What little I know says that Herenton is indeed serious about running for yet another term. He really should've stopped before this one. He would have gone out a hero and all the mess he's been responsible for would have come out on someone else's watch. As it is, he's got all kinds of problems to deal with: record unemployment; loss of NW Airlines; serious budget problems and problems with the office responsible; lots of potential challengers chafing at his hogging. If he overstretches yet again, he's going to destroy what little respect and legacy he has remaining.

Besides, I want Carol Chumney to run. I could have a ton of fun razzing her.