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Saturday, November 20, 2010

I pay $59 every single month to get Elliot Wave daily and monthly reports. Is it worth it? I guess from the point of view of protecting a large portfolio-- yes. But as a daily trading mechanism, well......I wouldn't could on their work.

But they do come up with stuff that no one else does. Some real relevant stuff. And although I won't plagarize their work, certainly they have ideas of value that get melded into my own theories and blog posts. So you get the benefit.

If the viewers who come here, 200 to 1000 per day, would all visit just one of our sponsors, that would probably cover the cost of that subscription and others. It's just a click, doesn't cost you anything, and brings the benefit of some fairly expensive pay subscriptions to you, for free. So please patronize our sponsors. MAHALO! That means thanks in Hawaiian.

We also subscribe to Breakpoint Trades, which is more than just a newsletter. The best deal there is 6 months for $240. See links on the left. They have awesome specific trade ideas and mechanical systems. They perform as trading coaches also, which we all need.

Here are some of the current trade ideas from BPT. I show that their winning trades are in the range of 80% to 90%. No JOKE, it is for real.

NOW SPEAKING of EWI.....I really really hate it when I enter the weekend short, and EWI issues a Monthly. Reason is....EWI is so large and it's followers are sometimes so committed, that HBB can ramp against the EWI publication, and thus take money from the bears.

So -- I am short into weekend, and late Friday comes out the EWI!! Balderdash!

Ouch

And the following original photoshop work from Kozak, who often contributes to this blog. Thanks Mr. Kozak.

Folks, we don't intend on making a bunch of money from the limited ads on this site, however, it would be nice to at least pay for the blog traffic monitoring service and contribute towards the cost of some of the pay sites that I subscribe to in order to bring you better ideas FOR FREE.

So please explore the advertisements and sponsors on this site. Every click sends some money my way that can help KEEP THIS SITE FREE, please I want to see 100 clicks today, with 300 or so visitors, that ought to be easy.

Doctor copper did a nice daily backtest of the PRS 100, and then went to break the 133 and 177. Trend change folks.

There is a chance it's is just a head fake, but that is less than 50%, don't know exactly where to place the odds, but I wouldn't cringe at saying 25%.

Market (and by that I mean HBB Humongous Bank and Broker) has been playing a game I call "internal correction" and I think I got that phrase from the blogosphere, maybe from Bluechip Bulldog's Brinkley.

Here is the game: Ramp and dump various individual stocks, hitting stops up and down, and enjoying profits on momentum plays that the big HBB gets other algo's and retail to follow there big moves and then HBB abandons the campaign, and stock corrects/overshoots to the down side. Play this with say 50 or 200 stocks at a time, and do it for months, and wallah....HBB has extracted the maximum capital from the market.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

Obvious gaming and manipulation, but that has always been part of the market. Some of it is legal. Collusion on a grand scale is not legal though, but it is like the old saying that if you make a lie big enough, and keep repeating it, it can become the truth. Now HFT and Algo/Bot's are being used as an excuse for the ramps and tape slams. I think the truth will be a bit more insidious. Say there are 100 major players in the S&P futures market, the most liquid of the markets. Even so, there is obvious collusion in manipulating the tape, most easily done during the "off hours". 2 to 3 years ago, I could play that tape very successfully, now the manipulation has gone beyond blatant. How do you get 100 players to all shift their bid and ask to allow stops to be popped.....hmmm....phone calls, or maybe Skype and Email. It is not simple algo's.

Now look at the other futures, that are all less liquid, i.e. easier to control. I would play copper futures, or silver futures. IF the game was even close to being fair. It is not. They are highly controlled.

There are some leveraged ETF's on silver and probably other base metals now, however, those are "run" by options (or even more obtuse Swaps) and we saw what happened in the flash crash. Massive moves in the ETF's as the HBB played games with the options. I feel like a HAL2000 figuring out that the only way to win is to decide not to play (or join the dark side--good luck with that)

See Europe on the front page of NYT --- Tin Foil Hat says get ready for a throw off ramp to the Euro, and very short term drop in Bucky. Maybe not. Be on guard.

The 2010 YOY comparisons on earning to 2009 was like shooting fish in a barrel. 2009 stunk so bad, it was easy to beat, 2011 will have a much tougher time comparing to 2010.

And finally, on a gripe about Thinkorswim, this is the 4th day in a row that TOS forced an update. What is up with that?

“Gold would probably provide a decent hedge against a declining dollar, but so would foreign stocks, which you can value,” said Scott Kays, an Atlanta-based financial adviser who does not include physical gold in client portfolios. “If gold becomes overvalued, there are places you can cash in on factors that drive up gold, without as much risk,” such as emerging-market bonds.

Uh-Huh---emerging market bonds. Yes I have played those in the past, Brazil Bonds with a yield of 12.5% and no price premium, backed by the European Investment Bank (which 4 years ago had a lot more credibility). Maybe I should call Brazil "emerging", how about Emergent?

TFH'n again....perhaps our financial overlords wish us all to run to bonds even more than has already happened, and scare with a push down on equities, and then blow off peak bonds as yet another way for Joe Average Public to be left holding the bag (of dung with a firecracker in it).

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Not too much musing to do today. I got whipsawed out of a USD long futures trade, knocked out of the long position on a big push down on low volume.....I guess that is "the locals" running stops to make their Sunday BBQ money....

Of course it immediately rocketing up after that. It wasn't lunch money lost, much bigger than that, almost a move of 1% which is huge.......well....lost profits anyway. Annoying that so many retraces now go a full 78% Fibo....unless you entered the trade perfectly, you need to remain at risk, with a stop outside your entry.

In true tin foil hat manner, I do have to say this is the HBB training people to be scared of the market now....before a huge drop, and unexpected moment, so most people miss it on the short side. The increase amount of 78 Fibo is huge.

The US mail indicator is way up....i.e. the amount of mail we receive as a business. Sometimes at the 2007 peak, 30 pieces per day. This last summer it dropped to 3 or 4 on some days.

More marketing calls though....no joke, 20 or more marketing calls per week, marketing...well guess...marketing. This bodes poorly for advertising companies like Google.

Another big work week. Probably no time to day trade....swing trades are treacherous with those 78 Fibos....

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