NCUA’s Worth Speculates on CUs and Economy in March Video Update

The National Credit Union Administration has posted its latest monthly economic update video on the agency’s YouTube channel.

In the nine-minute March update, Chief Economist John Worth discusses how credit union performance could vary under alternative economic scenarios this year.

The consumer spending outlook for items such as new cars appears to be improving, Worth said, citing new car sales figures. However, few observes call the economy strong, he said.

Worth said the most-likely scenario for credit unions would be moderate growth in deposits, lowered delinquency rates, little change in net interest income, all resulting in moderate improvement in return on average assets and net worth.

But, he added there are risks to that outlook that could hamper economic recovery, such as the federal sequester and spending cuts.

Deep recessions have generally been followed by periods of rapid economic growth. This hasn’t yet occurred, Worth said, but could emerge in 2013.

“It pays to be prepared for a wide variety of possibilities,” the NCUA economist said.

Launched in January 2012, NCUA’s economic update video series is a resource for credit union board members, loan officers and management. The videos are available on the NCUA’s YouTube channel.