Pac-12 football: Will anybody win the South?

Quick thoughts on the division, which was difficult to project back in January and has only become more muddled.

The four teams that figured to challenge for the title all have serious questions, and new issues seem to surface every week:

*** For starters, how do you assess Utah?

The Utes have been very successful in recent years in the Mountain West but will now face tougher competition on a week-in, week-out basis.

They will be doing so with a rebuilt secondary — there are some fairly decent QBs in the conference — no proven tailback and a quarterback (Jordan Wynn) who’s coming off shoulder surgery, didn’t participate in spring practice and has a new coordinator.

And yet … the Utes don’t play either Stanford or Oregon and they get Arizona State at home.

*** Then there are the injuries:

ASU figured to have the best defense in the division, if not the conference, but then cornerback Omar Bolden — one of the two or three best CBs in the league — ripped up his knee, leaving his status for the season highly uncertain.

At the same time, Arizona lost starting safety Adam Hall and starting linebacker Jake Fischer to knee injuries, creating two more holes on a defense that was already in rebuilding mode.

*** Then there are the issues at USC:

The NCAA denied the Trojans’ appeal of scholarship reductions and the second year of the bowl ban, with the latter issue being far more relevant to the 2011 season.

How will the Trojans respond knowing they cannot participate in the postseason or play in the Pac-12 championship game, even if they win the South? How motivated will they be if/when they drop a few games?

And don’t forget that one of the league’s best defensive linemen, Armond Armstead, was admitted to the hospital in March with chest plains. His availability for the fall is uncertain.

*** Then … and here’s the latest major development in the South … Arizona’s best player, receiver Juron Criner, may miss the season.

Criner was scheduled to participate in an ESPN publicity tour but canceled because of what was called a family matter.

But the Arizona Daily Star’s Greg Hansen reported earlier this week that Criner has an undisclosed medical problem and his status for the season “remains uncertain.”

(I heard last night that it’s not an injury, but it’s serious.)

Remember, the Wildcats have already lost No. 2 tailback Greg Nwoko to a knee injury and dismissed WR Bug Wright from the team.

Nick Foles will have to be very, very good for the Cats to challenge for the South title.

*** The end result of all the turmoil?

I’d probably still call USC and Arizona State the frontrunners, although neither possesses much margin for error.

Utah now figures to be a major player in the South from the start — things couldn’t have broken much better for the Utes in terms of circumstances weakening their competition.

Arizona looks like it might finish closer to the bottom of the division than the top, especially if Criner’s unavailable.

Heck, given all the turmoil, all the uncertainty, UCLA and/or Colorado could climb into the mix.

*** Last thought:

Because Pac-12 teams only play three non-conference games, it’s not hard to imagine six teams finishing with winning records in a 12-team league.

What if those six are USC and five teams from the powerful North? …

What if ASU fails to meet expectations (also not hard to imagine, especially given Bolden’s injury) …

And Utah struggles in its new conference …

And Arizona crumbles under the weight of injuries and personnel losses …

And the second-place team in the South is 5-7?

Because USC’s ineligible, a team with a losing record would represent the South in the Pac-12 championship game — it would be an upset away from the Rose Bowl.

Terrible article… I think ASU returns solid experienced corners in Omar Bolden’s absence, thin at the position yes, but I think the overall roster is deeper than the loss of one player. The “mighty north” lol…. I really did laugh about that. don’t mistake Oregon and Stanford’s recent success as anything having to so with a down Oregon State, a rebuilding Washington state, and a questionable Cal and Washington. Also it should be noted Arizona state doesn’t play Stanford this year and are probably favored to beat everyone else from the north minus Oregon. The same can be said for USC and potentially Utah (even though I think the wear of the season will get to them). I think ASU is set for a great season barring anymore major injuries in the secondary. I’m also expecting a heisman caliber season from Andrew Luck I don’t see him wanting to lose to Oregon again, I think Stanford will represent the north

OriginalBCSBuster

Oh Wilner…what are we gonna do with you.

I’m suddenly getting nervous for the article you are going to write on Utah and Colorado joining the conference. Don’t mess that up that you did on this one.

D$

Wilner. C’mon. Have you seen ASU play in the last year or two?

The loss of Omar Bolden hurts ASU’s defense. But they are returning so many key players on both sides of the ball that it will not crush the team. The D-Line has some big time players, namely Will Sutton and Junior Onyeali, that should help the secondary as they get pressure on the QB.

Oh yeah. And then there’s that Vontaze Burfict guy. You heard of him right?

Even if we lost to USC (DQ’d for cheating, again) we still look good to win the South. Gotta beat Utah on the road. That’s the South title game right there.

Magna Ute Fan

Interesting doomsday scenario. Hopefully, it’s just that. I can’t wait to see my Utes line up to face their new conference foes.

Go Utes!

AJ

I don’t get it, what’s wrong with anything that Wilner wrote here? Every team in the south has questions and I think he covered most of them. Arizona has been completely snake bitten this off season and are going to be very lucky to be competitive this season.

USC’s first team is a talented one but their depth after that is tenuous at best, especially along the OL.

Same thing applies to Arizona State. IF they get good QB play, they still are going to have protection issues. Or at least that’s going to be the concern until proven otherwise. Bolden was a key on the defense but I don’t think his loss will hurt too badly.

Utah. Who knows? Utnil Jordan Wynn is firing off passes in Norm Chow’s offense, who can say what they’ll do. Plus, I’d be very surprised if their defense is ready for the week to week pounding they are going to get. OL’s and RB’s in this league are bigger, faster, and stronger than they’ve seen on a regular basis.

CU was rebuilding to begin with, but the new staff has done some further house cleaning. And while it didn’t affect the starting rotation, it may have an effect on depth. But the new coaches are young and enthusiastic and talented, so they could surprise some folks.

UCLA has so many questions all over the field. They have recruited well in recent years but have not been able to make that talent work on the field. Still, if the new coaches can make these guys play, UCLA could surprise but they are the furthest bet from a sure thing in the entire conference.

rotfogel

Jon,
How you got a job writing about college football is beyond me. BUT, this might be the first time you’ve ever made a bit of sense. The south won’t be very good. ASU, USC and maybe Utah and that’s it. Colorado, UCLA and Arizona really shouldn’t be very good. That said it’s really not that awful.

If you compare the pac 12 to the SEC, it’s really similar: The SEC east is a lot like the Pac 12 south and the SEC west is a lot like the Pac 12 north. I think though the SEC east is a bit better than the Pac 12 south (not much) and the Pac 12 north is a bit better than the SEC west (not much either).

J

Great point about the South being represented in the title game with a losing record…maybe this whole playoff thing should be re-evaluated.

Mal

Yes….and USC sanctions will be reduced….that was your prediction.

PS Criner. Was seen at U of Washington two weeks ago…home of the Fred Hutchinson cancer clinic. My sister in law from Benica CA was saved by a bone marrow transplant at Huchinson. I did say he was at Fred Hutchinson, but there’s a reasonable chance…..which is much better than your observations about PAC12 sports. You’re way too lazy, apparently, to do much research.

Calfan

So bottom line is, who knows? UCLA will shock everybody and win the South. Go Bruins!

Os Beaver

Check out the new Beaver Byte website! Vote on many topics like possible Oregon football sanctions!http://beaverbyte.com

Rich Ressel

I HOPE SO! Maybe then there would be outrage over the NCAA’s indefensibly unjust intervention in college sports!

USC – 12 and 0
Utah 5-7

UTAH BEATS OREGON AND IS INELIGIBLE TO PLAY IN THE BCS BECAUSE IT DOES NOT HAVE A WINNING RECORD. YEAH, BABY!

PRAY FOR IT!

Rich Ressel

AND USC WINS THE AP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP! OH YEAH, HEAVEN ON EARTH!

EVEN BETTER: USC BEATS NOTRE DAME BUT IS OTHERWISE UNDEFEATED AND GOES TO THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME AND WINS.

SO MUCH TO PRAY FOR!

UCLA-Utah alum

What?! no James Madison?

Carter Uggicione

I am new to following reporters in the conference, but the few times I’ve read this guy, he seems to usually be negative; rags constantly on Colorado and Utah joining; and most of the reader comments imply that this is not a well-respected writer. Can anyone shed some light (seriously) on this guy? Being in San Jose, he probably has Pac-10 officials in his backpocket and they won’t call him out.

Calfan

Carter: JW is good at reporting the facts but very bad at speculating, like he does in this article, and terrible at ranking, which he unfortunately does for the AP. Plus, he is from the East Coast and is very East Coast biased. If he sees your team play, he will only dwell on the negative, and rank your team lower than teams he doesn’t cover, like those in the SEC or Big East. Now that he will be seeing CU, he will rank them lower than when CU was in the B12. Just watch.

bullship

Bad news about criner…hope he is ok

The south will be fine. USC is going to be much better than most think- once the game starts, players play/ compete and USC still has very good talent- especially at skill positions – and they have the 2nd best QB in the conference. I also think CO will better than people think- they have underperformed their talent for years now. Their coaching the past several years hurt them so the coaching change could be really significant for them.

Wilner is a strange sports reporter. He has been really on top of the business side and conference organizational issues like new commissioners and officials etc. Which have been big stories. He is also solid on infractions/ investigations – although his anti- athlete bias shows though. He also seems to get good info on coaches- at least the facts on contracts, hires and movements-especially basketball.

BUT…big but ….he really doesn’t understand the actual game- especially football- all that well. He can’t seem to watch a team practice or play and ‘see’ if they are any good – this is for individual players as well as teams as a whole. So when he is polling or making W- L predictions he really has no idea and ends up using crazy comparisons of strength of schedule or prior games ( that may or may not be relevant). He also doesn’t understand coaching personalities and how to see past the coach ( look past whether he likes the guy or not) and judge the coach by his results. As an example, he was very negative towards harbaugh, questioned his hiring, questioned his integrity( toilet gate) , criticized his closing practice etc. Is all Harbaugh was at Stanford was the best football coach they have had since Bill Walsh and he got Stanford to a higher ranking and better bowel than any coach in the modern era other than Ralston. Harbaughs teams always played hard, played smart , executed well on both sides of the ball- even early, before he had recruited any better talent- any experienced football person could see Stanford was well coached and was going to get better- but Wilner would take shots at Harbaugh whenever he could. Same way he is missing on Washington right now. Washington is clearly on the right path and Coach Sark completely outcoached Nebraska in that bowl game yet Wilner writes about Nebraska not showing up. He also loves guys like Riley at OSU, mostly because Riley is a teacher type, nice guy and nice to reporters. The fact that Rileys teams are very inconsistent, play a bad brand of defense for the Pac, and have underperformed when expectations are high- well Wilner turns a blind eye.

Last point is Wilner is very snarky and condescending towards players as a general rule. He hammered Masoli for 3 years but never bothered to talk with the kid or his familiy even though Masoli was a SF guy. It took SI, a national pub, to actually do some leg work and point out there was more to the athlete than him being a bad guy or a spoiled- arrogant guy. Wilner can’t be bothered to actually get to know the players.

Well I could go on….

ericksee

easy answer: Colorado well probably not this year but soon
GO BUFFS

nedbear

Bullship, I sure hope Stanfurd gets to another bowel this year.

Go Bears!

Pixel Poggel

@ D$ “Oh yeah. And then there’s that Vontaze Burfict guy.”

Oh, yes. Him. Dirtiest player in college football. I wouldn’t count on his being allowed to play the whole season–his head could easily get him thrown out/suspended. Meanwhile, I hope he doesn’t hurt anyone–which is exactly what he tries to do.