Putin's being logical as far as his (and Russian) interests are concerned. Ensuring access to the Crimean is profitable and militarily critical. He also wants to protect those interests from being used by the NATO countries at Russia's expense. The fundamental question (for me) is whether this is self-defense or expansionism. It would make sense for Putin to want the Russian empire (sphere of direct influence) to be as wide as the former USSR. However, will it happen through military, political or economic means? What will be the response of those within the sphere to these actions? That's when the issue becomes intervention or non-intervention.

Assad supports Russian interests, and they in turn naturally want him to stay in power. His enemies are Putin's enemies. If they happen to be IS, so be it. If they're Turkmen, Kurds or anti-Assad rebels, tough luck. Putin doesn't have to be the devil. But, that doesn't mean he's a nice guy with a peaceful agenda. The same is true for the NATO alliance, too.

"A man is rich when he has time and freewill. How he chooses to invest both will determine the return on his investment."

I saw that vid where Putin receives Erdogan in St. Petersburg and I am encouraged about a seeing a reconciliation between Turkey and Russia because the Syrian situation was very tense with the red line and then the schism (my interpretation) between US and Turkey over the Kurds last summer. NATO did not do much for Erdogan during the coup attempt, so perhaps there are no longer multiple agendas or factions in the US policy on Syria, and I think that means it will be more likely for an actual end to the war to be negotiated.

Maybe something like Russia moderates Syria and Turkey, US moderates Saudi Arabia and Gulf States, then Lavrov and Kerry bring it together. I wonder if Hillary's elected will Kerry stay on? Or will she replace him with some massive war hawk?

grzegorz wrote:Thanks, I've been looking for that channel. It's been awhile and when I was looking for them I kept typing in the Black Sea Report.

They did make some interesting points, among them one does have to wonder what would happen to Russia at this point without Putin.

His description of greater centralization of power by the Kremlin and further weakening of state institutions is a grim outlook in the face of the economic decline. We getting more and more Russians in Guangzhou, that's for sure.

I would like to see the sanctions against Russia lifted. I don't see how it's helping and the recent use of extended sanctions against Iraq that resulted in such widespread suffering* makes me extremely suspicious of their use in general.

I believe Putin believed that by fighting ISIS and for Assad that the West would forget about Crimea and have an alliance with him.

I also think they saw a serious threat from ISIS in what Assad described as a jihadist incubator.

*Madeline Albricht acknowledged 500,000+ Iraqi children died from the first Iraq war and the sanctions over a period of years. Then there's Cuba.

Last edited by Michael on Thu Aug 18, 2016 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Steve James wrote:Assad supports Russian interests, and they in turn naturally want him to stay in power. His enemies are Putin's enemies. If they happen to be IS, so be it. If they're Turkmen, Kurds or anti-Assad rebels, tough luck.

The Kurds are the big X-factor for everyone in Syria, because they are the best at fighting ISIS and no one can control them.

The US has a hard time getting the Kurds to do what they want. They kicked ISIS out of Manbij (with help from US air support) but the US then wanted them to head south and attack Raqqa, and instead the Kurds headed west to hook up with more Kurds.

Turkey considers the Syrian Kurds to be part of the Kurdistan Worker's Party which Turkey outlawed as a terrorist group.

Asad's government doesn't like the Kurds because they want to establish their own autonomous region in Northern Syria, and have done a good job fighting so far.

What's really interesting is that the Russians now have an air arrangement with Iran and Iraq: just this week Russia started flying TU-22 bombers straight out of Hamadan air base in Iran, and are crossing through Iraq's air space with their permission to get to Syria.

chud wrote:The Kurds are the big X-factor for everyone in Syria, because they are the best at fighting ISIS and no one can control them.

The US has a hard time getting the Kurds to do what they want. They kicked ISIS out of Manbij (with help from US air support) but the US then wanted them to head south and attack Raqqa, and instead the Kurds headed west to hook up with more Kurds.

It sounds like they know what they're doing. As I recall Westerners have been joining the Kurds although we don't hear much about these days.

I believe it's becoming more and more obvious that ultimately Iraq should become three states with the Kurds having their own country. I have no idea how the other two states would be successfully divided among the Sunni and Shia but obviously what they have now isn't working. Unfortunately Turkey is opposed to the Kurds having their own state and being that they're a NATO country and now seem to be uniting with Putin it would be hard to this to happen right now. Ultimately I think we're going to see an endless war.

"Fascists rejected reason in the name of will, denying objective truth in favor of a glorious myth articulated by leaders who claimed to give voice to the people."