Confidence on the Increase for Major Sunday Snowstorm

Virtually all weathercasters predicted at least five inches of snow. Any threat of mixed precipitation now appears relegated to well south of the Twin Cities. On the conservative end, KARE has acknowledged that "a half foot is not looking all that improbable." Others think accumulations will be closer to 10 inches, and in some cases, closer to a foot. Most forecasters anticipated the biggest snow amounts to fall south of the metro, though the Strib's blog suggests the heaviest amounts will be north of the metro.

Here's the latest summary of what the weather outlets were thinking (a complete, historical record of predictions for this storm can be found here).

WCCO: 5-10+KSTP: 6+ inches very likely (and probably conservative) for MSPFox: 6 to 10 inches. Thinks it may be closer to 10.KARE: "A half foot not looking all that improbable."Strib: 7 to 12 inches; highest amounts in north metroNWS: 5 to 10 inchesMPR: 6 to 12 inches

Check back for updates or follow us on Twitter and Facebook to get the latest on how the forecasters see this evolving "snow event."

12 comments:

OK here is what the various models are hinting at:From a program call bufkit the GFS has 17.6 but with compaction 11.3, the name has 15.9 but with compaction 10.8. From the Short Range Ensemble Forecast ( SREF) off of it's plume site 16.7, but no compaction is noted.

The European is a educated guess, that I had to hand calculated based on precipitation and temperature profiles, but it appears to be in 15-17 range.

First Yeah!(winter is making a come back).Second it is hiliarious what Paul Douglas said monday I do 'NOT' think we see a foot of snow just a couple of slushy inches(whos eating crow now)not only does he have a foot on the top end he is mentioning 20" totals as close as St.Cloud,bill for this fact alone he doesnt get a grade higher then a B. Also randyinchamplin you are on to something I believe numbers are climbing as well and you will see that everyone will have 10" as the lowest number and 18" as the highest.Is it me or does Kare11 just pussy-foot around with totals,never a concrete number(that should effect their grade)

Ok Bill game on!!!! I extracted this out of the MWS AFD issued at 4am this morning....THIS LEAVE A LARGEAREA OVER OVER 10 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTCENTRAL WI...WITH 13-15 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVY SNOWBAND. THIS BAND DEVELOPS OVER OVER THE METRO SUNDAY MORNING PERGFS FRONTOGENESIS BAND AND MINUS 15C OMEGA FIELD.

I believe Paul Douglas used the word "fizzile" in describing the weekend storm.

Seems to me the various outlets are just in a bidding war right now to see who can predict the biggest doom. I'll be laughing when we end up with half of what they're predicting. I'm sensing a lot of poor grades this weekend.

Paul Douglas had a headline the other day saying the chances for snow Sunday/Monday for the metro had FIZZLED! I can't seem to find that headline on his blog now. Hmmm, seems to me he conveniently decided to delete it now that a big storm is coming...

Bill you should post or keep a record of the Mets "clown maps" (accumulation estimates). Just watched and then looked at Belinda's. She has 2-4 inch line through Dakota county and west....way way off base.