sparky wrote:.I hear you guys , and do feel for it ....but !!- I never argue with facts , it make my head ache too much - If the IEA think it's oil and people keep purchasing it as oil , whom am I to argue ?- Pstarr is not wrong and I agree with him , we possibly , probably have passed the "conventional" crude oil peak unfortunately , we will not be sure until a decade from now

Probably? No . . . really. All the new oil is either super heavy or super light and missing the all-important middle grades where diesel and gasoline come from. We are FUBAR

pstarr wrote:Probably? No . . . really. All the new oil is either super heavy or super light and missing the all-important middle grades where diesel and gasoline come from. We are FUBAR

Given the track record of those proclaiming short term peak oil doom, economic doom, etc. be sure and get back to us when there are ACTUAL global shortages of gasoline and diesel that can credibly be claimed to be caused by a lack of "important middle grades".

Midnight Oil wrote:Dang, Adam, how do you define that there "OIL" you ALL talking bout?

The way most folks in the oil field do...if it can sit there in a tank near the wellhead, IT'S URL!!!!

Otherwise, it something those pipeline fellars have to worry about.

Pstarr just picks subsets of oil until he can get a peak, the gold stuff instead of the green, the one that is 0.1% heavier, whatever it takes not to face the reality that jumps out and grabs him, and his neighbors, and everyone else in the US when they go on down to the gas station (except EV owners anyway) to pay for the products manufactured from oil. They know what is going on, and are busy buying SUVs and whatnot, having the empirical evidence of peak oil showing up in their pocket books every time they do this. Same as pstarr, he can't be bothered to ditch his gas guzzling CO2 emitting transport, that would require..like...effort!

Midnight Oil wrote:Lookee here, Good Old Boy, have YALL been paying attention at all?!Dang, apparently not for one Texas minute!That's OK, I lived in the South and YALL are a little SLOW down yonder.Now, if you want my New York version about the numbers, I can provide that there too.Adumn.

Hey, Pstarr is an expert, and he says peak oil happened. Based on the consequences of that, I only have one opinion nowadays on peak oil consequences, however many more might happen.

Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

- Pstarr is not wrong and I agree with him , we possibly , probably have passed the "conventional" crude oil peak unfortunately , we will not be sure until a decade from now

Pstarr can't even tell you the difference in carbon and hydrogen atom differences between "conventional" oil and that other kind. And no, we don't have to wait another decade, we can look at oil production right now, and decide how significant that peak oil a decade ago was.

Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

"I am in shock Adam posted a chart showing a recent Peak in Oil Production". Not sure why you would be shocked. Adam and many others have posted charts showing such short term peaks in oil production. That one chart alone shows a half dozen peaks. There will be hundreds of such peaks between now and when global oil production reaches that last max peak. But even after we past that all time max rate there will be continued peaks as we go down that slope.

ROCKMAN wrote:"I am in shock Adam posted a chart showing a recent Peak in Oil Production". Not sure why you would be shocked. Adam and many others have posted charts showing such short term peaks in oil production. That one chart alone shows a half dozen peaks. There will be hundreds of such peaks between now and when global oil production reaches that last max peak. But even after we past that all time max rate there will be continued peaks as we go down that slope.

I am like you RM, more concerned with all the little peaks and declines from regional oil fields. Such events may cause significant shortages and temporary price spikes. By themselves not so important (with the exception of the super-giants fields like the terminal North Slope), especially to the wealthy countries of the world with military power.

The shortages do however reallocate oil away from fragile economies and weak nations. Especially hurt are those places without any oil reserves of their own, like Spain, Italy and Greece . . . all near basket cases on the world stage now.

Cog wrote:If you have the cash you can buy all the oil you want for around $50-54/bbl. I fail to see the problem. Hell I might buy some crude myself.

I have thought for some time now that if I were a big Diesel fuel consumer with a fixed location it would be worthwhile to buy actual crude oil and adjust the motors to burn it in the diesel cycle. There are several big diesel manufacturers that offer this as an option. It is especially beneficial for say an oil tanker traveling from the Persian Gulf to for example Japan. They can fill every tank onboard with crude oil including the bunker fuel tanks, then when they get to Japan they can pump out anything left in the fuel tanks as well as the cargo before buying back just enough heavy bunker fuel to make the trip back to the Persian Gulf.

Now if you were say, a local trucking delivery company, or a short line railroad, why not do the same thing? You always fill your equipment up from your own tank system, and compared to regular road diesel crude oil is about half the price. For the short haul trucking you might need extra modifications to meet emission standards, but in general if you are outside the city limits the rules are pretty lax and poorly enforced.

I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.

ROCKMAN wrote: There will be hundreds of such peaks between now and when global oil production reaches that last max peak.

There we go! I been telling people this for MONTHS now, the sine wave form of oil rate prediction. And yes, hundreds! Of even more importance, perhaps we should talk about the frequency of the cycles now? From 1979 to the next peak was more than a decade, the ones on the graph I used are sometimes month to month. So maybe we have multiple sine wave functions going on at the same time, sort of like atmospheric CO2 on Mauna Loa, the seasonal cycle, and the overall trend.

Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

pstarr wrote:The shortages do however reallocate oil away from fragile economies and weak nations. Especially hurt are those places without any oil reserves of their own, like Spain, Italy and Greece . . . all near basket cases on the world stage now.

Not a shortage in sight, in any country. May I recommend this reality?

And Japan makes your list as having no oil reserves, and keeps cranking out those Toyota's anyway!

And the place with the most oil reserves in the world, Venezuela, is also a basket case.

Not only doesn't your "don't have reserves" angle hold water, it might be as invisible as that 2005 peak oil I posted a chart on previously that can't be found in this reality either.

Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0