Wheat’s Weather Market Wildcard

Dry weather in the Plains will cause some wheat producers to make some tough decisions in the weeks ahead.

In the March 5 Crop Progress and Condition Report from the USDA, 50 percent of the Kansas winter wheat crop is in poor to very poor condition. Only one percent of the crop in the Sunflower State is rated excellent.

Oklahoma is facing the same situation with 71 percent of the crop is rated poor to very poor.

“If it’s still dry and the forecast is dry, some of the abandonments [are] going to start showing up,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for INTL FCStone on AgDay. “There’s obviously some wheat that’s more marginal and maybe has more hope that maybe lasts a little bit longer.”

With a nine-month soft red winter wheat surplus and a six-month hard red winter wheat surplus, Suderman says this is a weather market.

“They go up fast, and they can break fast, too,” he said.

Hear Suderman’s thoughts on where wheat will move and how far it will move on AgDay above.