Charles - averaged 6.4 yards per carry in 2010, not gonna happen again. He's too small to take on a bigger load and the offense overachieved last year. Do yourself a favor and don't take him this high.

Lesean McCoy - Unlike Charles, McCoy doesn't even have the stats to back up his overratedness. Like Charles he's not a workhorse back so don't expect his touches to increase. My early vote for most overrated player by the "experts" in 2011

Jason Witten - You can't draft him over Gates...you just can't.

Mendenhall- not sure why this guy is going so high. His stats were underwhelming last year and for my money he reached his potential last year. You can get this kind of production at least one round later.

Frank Gore - this kids is a beast. Do yourself a favor and look at his game log. Gore produced those stats on an awful offense. Easily the most underrated back in the league and for whatever reason that is translating to his fantasy value. Get this guy in the late first and don't be surprised if he's the best pick in that round. And spare me the injury risk argument. He's 100 percent and ready to go. Harbaugh is already calling him his workhorse. You do the math...it's pretty straightforward.

Greg Jennings - why is everybody so in love with this marginal talent? If he wasn't catching balls from the best QB in the game, would we still be overrating him? He had 6 games less than 55 yards last year...SIX. Further, check out his average when Finley was playing. Finley is a superior talent and Jennings will once again be overrated. Jennings owners got lucky last year when Finley went down...don't bank on it again. Jennings is a marginal talent on a good passing offense.

Michael Turner - RB#14...I'll take ridiculous for 1000 Alex. This guy is money in the bank, don't let him slide like this in your draft...PPR or not.

Other notes on the first two rounds:

* Nicks is a beast, it's nice to see him recognized as such, don't be surprised if he slides too far in your draft

* No way do I take Peterson over Foster at this point in time...who is playing QB for the Vikings offense anyhow?

* No way do I take Vick over Rodgers as the QB#1, Rodgers is my stone cold QB#1...less risk IMHO. That being said an argument can be made for Vick so I didn't flag that pick

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I don't disagree on Jennings and said so in the last draft I was in when he went in PDSL at 2.01 / WR4..... What I said then was that he was in My next tier of WR's, not necessarily better than any of em thru mid to late round 3.

Where I drafted my wish was for a top 6 QB to fall in round 2. Once that didn't happen my choice was WR/WR or WR/TE since my plan was to take advantage of having a top RB and wait on building my RB2BC.... I took the TE in my last draft and felt TE value lasted way late so, rolled another way.

I actually took Jennings over my next 2 Wayne or Wallace not because I love him or Value him more but because:

1) He was going earlier in other drafts and probably wouldn't make it back....

2) I wanted to stay away from the BYE week 11 where i thought I might want to be picking WR's much later from these Week 11 Teams - (4 teams) - HOU, IND, NO, PIT

It was just a thought at the time, maybe week 11 players don't come into play as much later on in the draft but, I drafted in my same tier and still left Week 11 open.

But, yeah, overall, I agree and probably won't be going out of my way to own Jennings that much in 2011 in my more conventional drafts.

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And about Gore, sure he is solid and every year I seem to have him on a team or two, and Im dominating with him in the lineup, then early November comes and he gets hurt, book it, he will miss time at the stretch run, Im avoiding him and he is 28 now and coming off a busted hip?

I like McCoy in the ppr format and a J.Charles Weiss-less Offense I have less confidence in.

Forte to Twiglight in round 2 looks early

Underrated:

Aaron Rodgers - to me he should be the #1 qb off the board. who in their right mind takes steve Jackson over him?

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Underated - Steven Jackson His situation has gotten better over the years. He churns out touches and now has a better offense to give space and closer to the goal line ops.Overated - QBs in the first roundThe first round QB has to be able to separate himself from his peers enough to compensate for losing out at other positions. This rarely happens with a first round QB investment.

Disagree here. With QBs flying off the board early this year, the separation is very minimal.Vick/Rodgers + Bradshaw/Williams > Sjax/McFadden + Schuab/Flacco

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Lesean McCoy - Unlike Charles, McCoy doesn't even have the stats to back up his overratedness. Like Charles he's not a workhorse back so don't expect his touches to increase. My early vote for most overrated player by the "experts" in 2011

Every year you do this and every year you are wrong.

McCoy finished as the #3 RB last year in PPR Leagues. He had 78 receptions. How is that not having the stats to back it up.? Of which "stats" do you speak? If you hate getting consistent points and not relying on inconsistent TD production, then McCoy is not for you.

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Lesean McCoy - Unlike Charles, McCoy doesn't even have the stats to back up his overratedness. Like Charles he's not a workhorse back so don't expect his touches to increase. My early vote for most overrated player by the "experts" in 2011

Every year you do this and every year you are wrong.

McCoy finished as the #3 RB last year in PPR Leagues. He had 78 receptions. How is that not having the stats to back it up.? Of which "stats" do you speak? If you hate getting consistent points and not relying on inconsistent TD production, then McCoy is not for you.

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Greg Jennings - why is everybody so in love with this marginal talent? If he wasn't catching balls from the best QB in the game, would we still be overrating him? He had 6 games less than 55 yards last year...SIX. Further, check out his average when Finley was playing. Finley is a superior talent and Jennings will once again be overrated. Jennings owners got lucky last year when Finley went down...don't bank on it again. Jennings is a marginal talent on a good passing offense.

So a Top 12 WR in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including 2010, isn't worthy of a second round pick. Okay....

I will play along. He's still the #1 target for one of the best - if not the best - passing offense in the NFL. He was the top target the past three seasons for the Packers - all seasons with J. Finley. As Finley matured in 2009, Finley passed Lee for the top TE status and he was slated for the #1 TE by a wide margin last year, but expecting his targets to come at the expense of Jennings doesn't sound right at all.

You say to check out his numbers when Finley was playing. Fine.

Finley played the first 4 games. Targets were:

Jennings - 26

Finley - 26

Driver - 26

Jones - 16

Nelson - 9

After that point, the next 12 games:

Jennings - 97

Finley - 0 (Quarless 32, Lee 10)

Driver - 60

Jones - 71

Nelson - 55

So Jennings averaged 6.5 targets and right at 25% of the targets for the Top 5 targets over the first four weeks. For the next 12, Jennings had 8 targets and 30% of the targets for the top four WRs and the TE position. Hardly a huge difference. If anything, Finley's targets went mostly to the other 3 WRs, especially Jones and Nelson, who had been representing about 25% of the action before Finley got hurt and then had 39% of the targets combined after he went down.

I'm just fine with selecting the top target and a consistent Top 12 WR at the back end of Round 2. I would have been fine selecting Finley there as well.

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So a Top 12 WR in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including 2010, isn't worthy of a second round pick.

I don't think you understand.The concern is Jermichael Finley's impacts on Jennings numbers. You can cling to (3 of the last 4) or the part of 2010 when Finley was out, but that's just going to get you an overrated WR in the second round or wherever you reached on him.As for his targets, Jennings wasn't getting open...which is why I asserted he's a marginal talent. We're not talking about Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald here...so why's he getting drafted right after them. It's a guppy mistake to overvalue target data.Ridiculous.

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I get it, but my draft plan was always TE at the 4/5 turn and at the 6/7 turn, hoping to snag two of the top 17. For the first TE I was thinking pure upside, and Graham offers that in spades. His second half projects out to about 50/600/10, and that's with Shockey in the mix (not to mention Moore and Bush, who could both be gone this year. The intersection of talent, situation, and opportunity is very potent and could yield a top 5 TE. His real value is probably closer to the 5/6 turn, but I was looking at that pick strictly through the lens of ceiling because I planned on mitigating the downside with another good TE at the next turn.

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I get it, but my draft plan was always TE at the 4/5 turn and at the 6/7 turn, hoping to snag two of the top 17. For the first TE I was thinking pure upside, and Graham offers that in spades. His second half projects out to about 50/600/10, and that's with Shockey in the mix (not to mention Moore and Bush, who could both be gone this year. The intersection of talent, situation, and opportunity is very potent and could yield a top 5 TE. His real value is probably closer to the 5/6 turn, but I was looking at that pick strictly through the lens of ceiling because I planned on mitigating the downside with another good TE at the next turn.

I know that's a projection, but the "10" in the TDs really jumped out at me.Do TEs typically get double-digit TDs? In New Orleans?This is a 2-part question I guess. The first part I've likely already answered on my own:1. How often do TEs score at that level, or even close?Here's my answer, using the Historical Data Dominator for TEs with 8+ TDs in a season since 1996:http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/histdatadom.php?groupyears=0&minyr=1995&maxyr=2010&tm=all&pos=te&minage=19&maxage=46&minexp=1&maxexp=25&stat1=rectd&stat1min=8&stat1max=99&stat2=none&stat2min=&stat2max=&stat3=none&stat3min=&stat3max=&stat4=none&stat4min=&stat4max=&sortby1=yr&ad1=desc&sortby2=alph&ad2=asc&display=cBottom line is 8+ TDs is pretty darn rare. Only 33 in that timeframe and 23 in the last 10 seasons (dominated by Gates with 7 of the 23).2. How much does New Orleans use the TE?That's a much better question. 89 catches with 6 TDs for all TEs in 2009. A whopping 103 and 10 in 2010. So is it possible? Yes. Likely? No.Just wondering what the projection would / should be for Graham. He's going to get a ton of hype this year - just wondering what the numbers should be. It's quite possible 70-75% of the TE numbers for 2010 could be headed his way, and that'd be 70-77 catches and 7-8 TDs. That's quite a haul.

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I get it, but my draft plan was always TE at the 4/5 turn and at the 6/7 turn, hoping to snag two of the top 17. For the first TE I was thinking pure upside, and Graham offers that in spades. His second half projects out to about 50/600/10, and that's with Shockey in the mix (not to mention Moore and Bush, who could both be gone this year. The intersection of talent, situation, and opportunity is very potent and could yield a top 5 TE. His real value is probably closer to the 5/6 turn, but I was looking at that pick strictly through the lens of ceiling because I planned on mitigating the downside with another good TE at the next turn.

I know that's a projection, but the "10" in the TDs really jumped out at me.Do TEs typically get double-digit TDs? In New Orleans?This is a 2-part question I guess. The first part I've likely already answered on my own:1. How often do TEs score at that level, or even close?Here's my answer, using the Historical Data Dominator for TEs with 8+ TDs in a season since 1996:http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/histdatadom.php?groupyears=0&minyr=1995&maxyr=2010&tm=all&pos=te&minage=19&maxage=46&minexp=1&maxexp=25&stat1=rectd&stat1min=8&stat1max=99&stat2=none&stat2min=&stat2max=&stat3=none&stat3min=&stat3max=&stat4=none&stat4min=&stat4max=&sortby1=yr&ad1=desc&sortby2=alph&ad2=asc&display=cBottom line is 8+ TDs is pretty darn rare. Only 33 in that timeframe and 23 in the last 10 seasons (dominated by Gates with 7 of the 23).2. How much does New Orleans use the TE?That's a much better question. 89 catches with 6 TDs for all TEs in 2009. A whopping 103 and 10 in 2010. So is it possible? Yes. Likely? No.Just wondering what the projection would / should be for Graham. He's going to get a ton of hype this year - just wondering what the numbers should be. It's quite possible 70-75% of the TE numbers for 2010 could be headed his way, and that'd be 70-77 catches and 7-8 TDs. That's quite a haul.

He had four in the last three games last year. Brees obviously loves him in the red zone. I don't think historical TE numbers for New Orleans are going to show you that. New Orleans hasn't had a TE who can get superior position and outleap defenders instinctively like Graham before. What did SD's TE numbers look like before Gates - I'm not saying Graham is the next Gates, just that history isn't going forecast a team leaning on a gamechanger at a position.

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I get it, but my draft plan was always TE at the 4/5 turn and at the 6/7 turn, hoping to snag two of the top 17. For the first TE I was thinking pure upside, and Graham offers that in spades. His second half projects out to about 50/600/10, and that's with Shockey in the mix (not to mention Moore and Bush, who could both be gone this year. The intersection of talent, situation, and opportunity is very potent and could yield a top 5 TE. His real value is probably closer to the 5/6 turn, but I was looking at that pick strictly through the lens of ceiling because I planned on mitigating the downside with another good TE at the next turn.

I know that's a projection, but the "10" in the TDs really jumped out at me.Do TEs typically get double-digit TDs? In New Orleans?This is a 2-part question I guess. The first part I've likely already answered on my own:1. How often do TEs score at that level, or even close?Here's my answer, using the Historical Data Dominator for TEs with 8+ TDs in a season since 1996:http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/histdatadom.php?groupyears=0&minyr=1995&maxyr=2010&tm=all&pos=te&minage=19&maxage=46&minexp=1&maxexp=25&stat1=rectd&stat1min=8&stat1max=99&stat2=none&stat2min=&stat2max=&stat3=none&stat3min=&stat3max=&stat4=none&stat4min=&stat4max=&sortby1=yr&ad1=desc&sortby2=alph&ad2=asc&display=cBottom line is 8+ TDs is pretty darn rare. Only 33 in that timeframe and 23 in the last 10 seasons (dominated by Gates with 7 of the 23).2. How much does New Orleans use the TE?That's a much better question. 89 catches with 6 TDs for all TEs in 2009. A whopping 103 and 10 in 2010. So is it possible? Yes. Likely? No.Just wondering what the projection would / should be for Graham. He's going to get a ton of hype this year - just wondering what the numbers should be. It's quite possible 70-75% of the TE numbers for 2010 could be headed his way, and that'd be 70-77 catches and 7-8 TDs. That's quite a haul.

He had four in the last three games last year. Brees obviously loves him in the red zone. I don't think historical TE numbers for New Orleans are going to show you that. New Orleans hasn't had a TE who can get superior position and outleap defenders instinctively like Graham before. What did SD's TE numbers look like before Gates - I'm not saying Graham is the next Gates, just that history isn't going forecast a team leaning on a gamechanger at a position.

Fair enough - I was just trying to find context for double_Digit TDs for a TE. All too often we throw out those kinds of numbers for TEs and WRs and we forget how rare those kinds of seasons can be.

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I get it, but my draft plan was always TE at the 4/5 turn and at the 6/7 turn, hoping to snag two of the top 17. For the first TE I was thinking pure upside, and Graham offers that in spades. His second half projects out to about 50/600/10, and that's with Shockey in the mix (not to mention Moore and Bush, who could both be gone this year. The intersection of talent, situation, and opportunity is very potent and could yield a top 5 TE. His real value is probably closer to the 5/6 turn, but I was looking at that pick strictly through the lens of ceiling because I planned on mitigating the downside with another good TE at the next turn.

I know that's a projection, but the "10" in the TDs really jumped out at me.Do TEs typically get double-digit TDs? In New Orleans?This is a 2-part question I guess. The first part I've likely already answered on my own:1. How often do TEs score at that level, or even close?Here's my answer, using the Historical Data Dominator for TEs with 8+ TDs in a season since 1996:http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/histdatadom.php?groupyears=0&minyr=1995&maxyr=2010&tm=all&pos=te&minage=19&maxage=46&minexp=1&maxexp=25&stat1=rectd&stat1min=8&stat1max=99&stat2=none&stat2min=&stat2max=&stat3=none&stat3min=&stat3max=&stat4=none&stat4min=&stat4max=&sortby1=yr&ad1=desc&sortby2=alph&ad2=asc&display=cBottom line is 8+ TDs is pretty darn rare. Only 33 in that timeframe and 23 in the last 10 seasons (dominated by Gates with 7 of the 23).2. How much does New Orleans use the TE?That's a much better question. 89 catches with 6 TDs for all TEs in 2009. A whopping 103 and 10 in 2010. So is it possible? Yes. Likely? No.Just wondering what the projection would / should be for Graham. He's going to get a ton of hype this year - just wondering what the numbers should be. It's quite possible 70-75% of the TE numbers for 2010 could be headed his way, and that'd be 70-77 catches and 7-8 TDs. That's quite a haul.

He had four in the last three games last year. Brees obviously loves him in the red zone. I don't think historical TE numbers for New Orleans are going to show you that. New Orleans hasn't had a TE who can get superior position and outleap defenders instinctively like Graham before. What did SD's TE numbers look like before Gates - I'm not saying Graham is the next Gates, just that history isn't going forecast a team leaning on a gamechanger at a position.

Fair enough - I was just trying to find context for double_Digit TDs for a TE. All too often we throw out those kinds of numbers for TEs and WRs and we forget how rare those kinds of seasons can be.

Colston was pretty much the TEM, pre-shockey even on Yahoo, and Brees-Gates was deadly. I just think he's overvalued.

Charles - averaged 6.4 yards per carry in 2010, not gonna happen again. He's too small to take on a bigger load and the offense overachieved last year. Do yourself a favor and don't take him this high.

Lesean McCoy - Unlike Charles, McCoy doesn't even have the stats to back up his overratedness. Like Charles he's not a workhorse back so don't expect his touches to increase. My early vote for most overrated player by the "experts" in 2011

Jason Witten - You can't draft him over Gates...you just can't.

Mendenhall- not sure why this guy is going so high. His stats were underwhelming last year and for my money he reached his potential last year. You can get this kind of production at least one round later.

Frank Gore - this kids is a beast. Do yourself a favor and look at his game log. Gore produced those stats on an awful offense. Easily the most underrated back in the league and for whatever reason that is translating to his fantasy value. Get this guy in the late first and don't be surprised if he's the best pick in that round. And spare me the injury risk argument. He's 100 percent and ready to go. Harbaugh is already calling him his workhorse. You do the math...it's pretty straightforward.

Greg Jennings - why is everybody so in love with this marginal talent? If he wasn't catching balls from the best QB in the game, would we still be overrating him? He had 6 games less than 55 yards last year...SIX. Further, check out his average when Finley was playing. Finley is a superior talent and Jennings will once again be overrated. Jennings owners got lucky last year when Finley went down...don't bank on it again. Jennings is a marginal talent on a good passing offense.

Michael Turner - RB#14...I'll take ridiculous for 1000 Alex. This guy is money in the bank, don't let him slide like this in your draft...PPR or not.

Other notes on the first two rounds:

* Nicks is a beast, it's nice to see him recognized as such, don't be surprised if he slides too far in your draft

* No way do I take Peterson over Foster at this point in time...who is playing QB for the Vikings offense anyhow?

* No way do I take Vick over Rodgers as the QB#1, Rodgers is my stone cold QB#1...less risk IMHO. That being said an argument can be made for Vick so I didn't flag that pick

You cant take Witten over Gates?

Umm what if you are wanting a player who has a better chance of staying healthy, and produces non stop in a 2 ppr for TE?

Wittens value is just about right, as he almost catches 100 passes a year. I actually think the top teir of TEs are a little undervalued.

As far as McCoy, its a ppr league dude, check the stats again.

Charles is a fast back, who has the vision for the open hole, he also will catch some passes, and TJones aint gonna be a factor. Your crazy point of view is a little comical.

Mendy is a td guy, who is a play maker. you wonder why he is going so high, he is on a team that runs the ball and is always ahead to run it, do yourself a favor, to quote you, and look up his attempts. He gets the rock, and does stuff with it with plenty of upside.

Gore? Underrated? Dude has 2 bum knees, and a broken hip...AND HES A RUNNING BACK? Man guy, I wish this wasnt so easy, a guy who gets hurt every year and especially when you need him, that has to be taken into account.

As for Turner, do you even know why he slides in all these drafts... Brcause he does not catch passes and its a PPR. Man LHucks, do you understand this scoring concept? lmao, dude I wouldnt take your advice over a my womans, she even knows Gore is busted up and Turner dont catch passes, for a PPR.

Its simple, you cant win without opportunity and upside, to call guys like McCoy, a guy who catches a ton in a ppr, and Charles, and Mendy...even Witten overrated is funny to me, that is all.