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Forest Vulnerability Assessment Tool

Vulnerability of trees species to climate change

Not all species will react equally in the face of rapid environmental change. Vulnerability depends on its degree of exposure (i.e., the environmental change an individual will experience), its sensitivity to altered growing conditions, and its adaptive capacity (i.e., its ability to accommodate or cope with those environmental changes). These interactive maps show Canadian forest vulnerability to drought and migration failure by combining spatially explicit exposure to climate change, stand composition data and species sensitivity.

About the map

These interactive maps show Canadian forest vulnerability to drought and migration failure by combining spatially explicit exposure to climate change, stand composition data and species sensitivity.

Data are based on the 22 most abundant tree species in Canada and their exposure to climate change. For drought vulnerability, zones of exposure were defined by cross-referencing tree species’ current distribution (Beaudoin et al., 2014) with the Climate Moisture Index (CMI: Hogg, 1994). For vulnerability to migration failure, zones of exposure were defined by cross-referencing tree species’ current distribution (Beaudoin et al., 2014) with species’ projected climate envelopes (McKenney et al., 2007). CMI and climate envelope projections for the 2011–2040, 2041–2071 and 2071–2100 periods were obtained using the RCP 8.5 scenario (projections from McKenney et al., 2011). A trait-based index was used to characterize stand sensitivity to drought and stand relative migration capacity (Aubin et al., 2018).