000
FXUS63 KDLH 151717
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1217 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018
Updated for the latest 18Z Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018
A ridge of high pressure will extend through the Northland today
with the high moving south tonight into Friday. This high will
provide the region with mostly clear skies through Friday. The
exception will be along a portion of the South Shore, mainly
portions of Ashland and Iron Counties, this morning where lake
induced clouds and perhaps some light snow showers will be
possible. Forecast soundings show plenty of dry air and a low
inversion height which will limit any snow showers. By late
morning, even drier air will be in place which will cause the
clouds to diminish. Today will be cooler than Wednesday with highs
ranging from 25 to 30 in the Arrowhead, to the middle thirties
from Siren to the Brainerd Lakes and Walker areas.
Tonight will be colder with lows from zero to 10 above. Friday
will continue to be mostly clear and it will be a bit warmer with
highs from the mid thirties to lower forties.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018
The Northland can expect a relatively warm weekend. Saturday will
be particularly sunny and warm. Friday night may be cold with
clear skies under high pressure, but relative light westerly flow
and full sun Saturday should cause rapid temperature recovery.
Increased Saturday`s high temperature towards bias-corrected
consensus model guidance to lean on the warmest guidance. Highs
should at least be in the middle to upper 40s, but would not be
surprised by 50s. Seasonal and sunny weather through this weekend.
Sunday looks a little cooler. High pressure will begin building
into the region from the north, and colder air will filter into
the Northland. Plus, there will likely be onshore flow near Lake
Superior, bringing colder air from the Lake. Highs should be in
the low to middle 40s.
The models continue to indicate a Colorado Low will develop early
next week and eject east towards the eastern US. The latest GFS,
European, and Canadian keep this low well to our south, so there is
increasing confidence the Northland will avoid any significant
impacts from this potential winter storm system. However, its
inverted trough may bring light snow and rain Monday into Tuesday,
primarily over central and north-central Minnesota. Expect seasonal
temperatures in the low to middle 30s for Monday through
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018
High pressure continues to build out of Canada and into the Lake
Superior region later tonight. Expect clear skies through
tonight. Light north winds today will become very light and
easterly tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 10 38 18 / 0 0 0 0
INL 31 2 41 11 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 37 11 41 15 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 34 3 42 12 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 31 8 38 15 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WM
SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...WM