Now that the withdrawal has been talked to death, anyone care to speculate on who will take SAS's Q400 fleet? I'll guess AC Jazz as a possibility. They're looking to replace their Dash-8 fleet, and AC always looks for a bargain. Since they're in BBD's backyard, they might feel they can get better support and/or a rebuilding for the early examples.

Porter Airlines in Canada seemed to be very interested in them. They have airplanes of this type ordered and plan on ordering adittional. From what I understood from a Canadian TV interview with the CEO a few days ago, Porter hoped it would be possible to get them faster now....

SAS have stated that, already the day after the announcement, several airlines contacted them in order to take over the aircraft on the existing lease. Hans Ollongren of SAS says that the contacts are very serious and is happy that SAS can possibly get out of the contracts which expires between 2010-2012.

"These aircraft is a resource which SAS of commercial reasons will not fly, others have a different opinion. It is positive that will use these resources as there is a lack of capacity."

"SAS stresses that the decision to withdraw the Q400 from SK service was based on commercial reasons and had nothing to do with safety concerns. SAS decided that it was a necessary step to take in order to maintain the trust of it's customers and to avoid further damaging the SAS brand. When the cause of the third incident is determined, possible repairs and modifications made and all authority approvals are received the aircraft can safely be operated by other airlines"

Quoting ETStar (Reply 1):I wonder what the utilization of the aircraft at SAS was like, versus say those of Horizon Air. I don't recall hearing of similar events at Horizon...

We use the s**t out of our -400's, and are damn proud of it! I believe that QX has the highest dispatch reliability of the type, but I could be wrong (I would like to think so, at least, as I work my butt off keeping them flying).

Sure, I might talk smack about the plane from time to time, but I do love them. We have not had any of the same types of problems SAS had, but we have problems with the type. Only one aircraft in the fleet has had recurring landing gear issues on a regular basis, but they have normally been the exact opposite of the SK issues. It is a love-hate relationship with the plane: We love them when they are working, but hate them because we know they will break in a bizzare way, and then when broke, we love them because of the job security, but hate them because of the crappy support (the NONEXISTANT support) from Bombardier.

I would have thought either flybe or bmi regional might have been interested in them. flybe have had to incorporate the ERJ-145 into their fleet since taking over BA Connect, and with current delivery rates from Bombardier, are unable to move down to a dual-type fleet until 2009. Taking on SAS's fleet would allow them to get rid of the ERJ, which isn't the right type for low-cost operation. bmi regional had a Q400 demonstrator from Luxair over the summer, and is rumoured to be the un-named airline which has ordered 10 examples of the type. SAS own 20% of the airline, which is constantly looking to expand into high yielding regional routes.

My postings on this site are my own and don’t necessarily represent British Airways’ positions, strategies or opinions

Quoting Kearney (Reply 3):I doubt it. The Q400 wont replace the smaller dash 8's they already have. I think that the Q400 is a bit to large, and AC's Embraer's cover that market.

Jazz has already been looking at the Q400. I believe I read somewhere that its pretty much as effcient as the Dash 300, so it could easily take on their routes. Since Jazz flight crew are paid the same hourly rate regardless of a/c type this should make the Q400 as profitable as a DH3. In addition, it might give AC the chance to fly some YYZ-NY flights with turboprops as Porter will be using the same equipment. It has long been rumoured that many of the DH1 routes will be devolved to Tier 3 carriers anyway.

Most of these ex-SAS plane will also require some updates and rebuilding (I'm not talking about those 3 that actually crashed) which SAS had intended to do. Well it was actually Widerøe that was about to begin doing it for SAS. The reason for this is that most of the SAS planes are so-called "A" types, while most other Q400 are "B" types, and it is the "A" types that causes most of the trouble.

Btw, I know that there are officially no such thing as "A" and "B" Q400, but Bombardier did some upgrades with the Q400 at some time and the "B" types are supposedly having less reliability issues than the "A" types

Quoting Multimark (Reply 8):Quoting Kearney (Reply 3):
I doubt it. The Q400 wont replace the smaller dash 8's they already have. I think that the Q400 is a bit to large, and AC's Embraer's cover that market.

Jazz has already been looking at the Q400. I believe I read somewhere that its pretty much as effcient as the Dash 300, so it could easily take on their routes. Since Jazz flight crew are paid the same hourly rate regardless of a/c type this should make the Q400 as profitable as a DH3. In addition, it might give AC the chance to fly some YYZ-NY flights with turboprops as Porter will be using the same equipment. It has long been rumoured that many of the DH1 routes will be devolved to Tier 3 carriers anyway.

I think Jazz will end up with Q400's eventually, and although they could certainly replace some DH3's (particularly on routes in competition with QX & Porter), I see them more as a CRJ replacement rather than a Dash replacement - certainly the older CRJ100's anyway and if (big if IMO) they get the SK birds this is what they will replace, not Dash's (which will no doubt overlap some DH3 routes too such as YVR - YLW). As no part of their fleet renewal is desperate, I cant see Jazz making any fleet decisions just yet, so until these devolving rumours are put to bed or otherwise and they figure out what aircraft they will need long term, IMO they wont enter a new type to the fleet just yet - and runts of the litter at that!! If they do keep their DH1 routes - and I believe it would be in their best interests to do so - then these are the birds that (arguably) 'need' replacing first of the Dash's and a Q400 simply doesnt do that - the only new alternative is the Q200 - or ATR42 (which then also means ATR72's so they wouldnt want a handful of two legged Q400's even short term in that case).

Flybe would definatly be my #1 guess. Bmi regional is an interesting one - its possible with the SK tie up, but if they are also the UFO for the new builds, then it becomes doubtful IMO as that will be a serious increase in capacity, unless they are going to take over some WW routes too or share with them. Of course, there could be more than one carrier and the likes of LH, VO, QF & LG could be in the mix too for the odd frame. VG could be another option who we know are looking for fresh metal.