Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 12

Welcome to another week of our staff picks, where we're out to prove you really can screw up your picks when you use shot glasses.

This week, the numbers say the Broncos have roughly a 33% chance of winning.

The numbers are wrong; the Chargers are in meltdown.

The Results

As a reminder, the IAOFM staff are the incomparable Ted Bartlett, the idiotic TJ Johnson, the impertinent Doug Lee, and the ingenious David Singer. Of the four, TJ uses his own mathematical formula he developed while watching Lee Van Cleef shoot a man in cold blood. Lee, Bartlett and Singer use the minds of mortals.

The so-called experts are Peter King, Mike Silver, Jason Cole and Merril Hoge--all of them noted critics of Tim Tebow.

Finally, there's the Monte Carlo simulator from Accuscore, the crowd-based Pick 'Em (users' picks at ESPN), and Baxter McLove, our resident sportscaster with a penchant for the ladies and liquor. He'd be the most interesting man in the world, if he wasn't drunk.

Ted

TJ

Doug

David

Baxter

King

Silver

Cole

Hoge

Accuscore

Pick 'Em

Week 11

11

9

10

10

9

11

11

10

10

11

10

Games

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

Success %

78.57

64.29

71.43

71.43

64.29

78.57

78.57

71.43

71.43

78.57

71.43

Overall

99

101

111

102

98

106

113

99

102

112

109

Games

159

159

159

159

159

159

159

159

159

159

159

Success %

62.26

63.52

69.81

64.15

61.64

66.67

71.07

62.26

64.15

70.44

68.55

Doug Lee continues his quest to force Mike Silver into submission as Accuscore continues to show how strong with the force it really is.

The Picks

AWAY

HOME

Ted

TJ

Doug

David

Baxter

King

Silver

Cole

Hoge

Accuscore

Pick 'Em

GB

DET

GB

GB

GB

GB

DET

GB

GB

GB

GB

GB

GB

MIA

DAL

DAL

DAL

DAL

DAL

MIA

DAL

DAL

DAL

DAL

DAL

DAL

SF

BAL

SF

BAL

BAL

BAL

BAL

BAL

BAL

BAL

SF

BAL

BAL

MIN

ATL

ATL

ATL

ATL

ATL

ATL

ATL

ATL

ATL

ATL

ATL

ATL

CLE

CIN

CIN

CIN

CIN

CIN

CLE

CIN

CIN

CIN

CIN

CIN

CIN

TB

TEN

TB

TEN

TEN

TB

TEN

TB

TEN

TB

TEN

TB

TEN

ARI

STL

STL

STL

STL

STL

ARI

ARI

ARI

STL

ARI

STL

STL

HOU

JAX

HOU

HOU

HOU

HOU

HOU

HOU

HOU

HOU

HOU

HOU

HOU

BUF

NYJ

BUF

BUF

BUF

BUF

BUF

BUF

BUF

BUF

BUF

BUF

BUF

CAR

IND

IND

CAR

CAR

CAR

CAR

CAR

CAR

CAR

CAR

CAR

CAR

WAS

SEA

SEA

SEA

SEA

SEA

SEA

SEA

SEA

SEA

SEA

SEA

SEA

CHI

OAK

CHI

OAK

OAK

CHI

CHI

OAK

OAK

OAK

OAK

OAK

OAK

NE

PHI

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

PHI

NE

PHI

NE

NE

DEN

SD

DEN

SD

SD

SD

DEN

SD

SD

SD

SD

SD

SD

PIT

KC

PIT

PIT

PIT

PIT

KC

PIT

PIT

PIT

PIT

PIT

PIT

NYG

NO

NO

NO

NO

NO

NO

NO

NO

NO

NO

NO

NO

This week only Ted and Baxter could again muster the decency to take the Broncos.

The Probability

If you want to wager some money straight up with your buddies (or you're just a degenerate), here's what you're looking at with respect to probabilities this week, using Sagarin's Rating System and my own Excel spreadsheets:

AWAY

HOME

Points - Away Team

Points - Home Team

Favorite

Spread

Probability

GB

DET

28.62

27.17

GB

1.45

0.5273

MIA

DAL

16.54

25.99

DAL

9.45

0.7407

SF

BAL

24.57

32.82

BAL

8.25

0.7119

MIN

ATL

18.3

19.85

ATL

1.55

0.5301

CLE

CIN

12.98

23.63

CIN

10.65

0.7680

TB

TEN

14.31

24.86

TEN

10.55

0.7658

ARI

STL

13.92

11.88

ARI

2.04

0.5442

HOU

JAX

24.34

16.05

HOU

8.29

0.7129

BUF

NYJ

24.58

28.23

NYJ

3.65

0.5898

CAR

IND

16.73

15.9

CAR

0.83

0.5094

WAS

SEA

19.52

17

WAS

2.52

0.5579

CHI

OAK

19.91

25.68

OAK

5.77

0.6481

NE

PHI

30.27

23.08

NE

7.19

0.6853

DEN

SD

16.83

23.67

SD

6.84

0.6763

PIT

KC

25.38

13.79

PIT

11.59

0.7881

NYG

NO

18.75

29.17

NO

10.42

0.7629

Baxter McLove's Stone-Cold-Drunk Locks

McLove continues to only pick games in which a team is favored by three points or less. This week he utilizes the X > meme.

1. Atlanta over Cincinnati - " What's more goth, a Falcon or a Bengal?"

2. Arizona over Saint Louis - "Just go with the cooler color scheme."

3. Carolina over Indianapolis - "I don't need to explain myself."

4. Seattle over Washington - "Just because I want to see Shanny turn as red as his team's uniforms."

haha I love it, Baxter is picking a game that isn&#8217t even being played. He&#8217s too cool to have to know that Atlanta plays Minnesota and Cinci plays Cleveland. Baxter is so badass that McLove doesn&#8217t just pick winners, that would be too easy, he goes all in and is betting against the schedule. That takes balls. He is predicting that Atlanta get lost on their flight to Minnesota, accidentally land in Cinci, decide to stay and play the Begnals AND covers the spread. What are the odds on that? Only Baxter knows.

Posted by Eddie T on 2011-11-27 14:30:49

Im with you, Boydy. This team is about as much of a craps shoot as&#8230. well, a craps shoot, I guess. However, I like it when NO ONE believes we can win. That&#8217s been the case for the past 5 weeks. Can&#8217t wait to see the NFLN guys pick. Deion and Irvin were goin on and on about Tebow having &#8220it&#8221 so I&#8217m curious to see if they&#8217ll put their money where their mouth is.

Posted by HarvJNep2n on 2011-11-27 14:27:18

Thanks man. have a great one. I wont NO ONE picking the Broncos&#8230it would upset the karmic balance!