The Mississippi senator’s supporters are enthused by higher turnout than was seen in the primary three weeks ago and think he might have some late momentum. But given the trajectory of the race and the heavy outside spending, a Cochran win at this point would be the bigger surprise of the night.

If challenger Chris McDaniel does win, Republicans could have quite the conundrum on their hands. On Tuesday many state politicians said the wounds would heal — on “The Daily Rundown” GOP Chairman Joe Nosef promised the party would come together and former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.) also said “of course” he would support McDaniel if he is the nominee.

But Democrats were gleeful already about the prospect of a McDaniel win, sending around a memo reminding reporters that fellow Republicans called McDaniel “ 'Dangerous,' 'Extreme,' Someone Who Associates With “White Nationalists & Segregationists' ” and even NRSC leadership had called his campaign “ 'Despicable,' 'Extreme' and 'Revolting.' ”

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National Republicans took a real risk in the fervor with which they railed against McDaniel, and whether they admit it or not, they’re praying their words don’t come back to bite them.

Even in other races where incumbents or front-runners were upset and Democrats subsequently won in November — like the Indiana contest in 2012 or Nevada, Delaware and Colorado in 2010 — the vitriol between the two candidates was nothing like this race. And that’s exactly why Senate Democrats are feeling optimistic about former Rep. Travis Childers (D). A win in the Deep South is still a long haul, but after tonight Democrats could finally have the “Todd Akin” of the cycle they’ve been looking for to drag down other candidates.

MT-SEN (WALSH): Sen. John Walsh’s (D-Mont.) campaign is out with an ad firing back at Rep. Steve Daines’s (R-Mont.) latest spot, which said Walsh “looked the other way” on female guardsmen who were mistreated under his watch. In Walsh’s ad, a woman who served with Walsh calls the spot “nothing more than a lie.” Walsh also wrote a letter to Daines accusing him of “swiftboat attacks” and asking him to meet face-to-face to discuss the ads — and included a letter from the Montana delegation signed by Daines praising Walsh’s work.

Shaheen’s likely Republican opponent, Scott Brown, will pick up the endorsement of former GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney next week, according to a campaign email sent out to supporters Tuesday morning. Romney will join Brown at a campaign event next Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the pro-Clinton super-PAC Priorities USA is making new contributions to outside groups for the midterms, Politico reports. President Obama’s 2012 chairman, Jim Mesina, the group’s co-chairman, is giving $250,000 to both the Senate Majority PAC and the House Majority PAC.

IA-3 (OPEN): A third-party “liberty” candidate is running in retiring Rep. Tom Latham’s (R-Iowa) competitive open seat and could potentially siphon off votes from the Republican.

MI-4 (OPEN): Retiring Rep. Dave Camp (R-Mich.) endorsed state Sen. John Moolenaar (R) to succeed him. Camp called Moolenaar an “honest hard-working, proven conservative” who “really has a great track record of really solid decision making.”

CHRISTIE: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s (R-N.J.) administration appears to be at the center of an investigation into securities law violations relating to a road repair project in New Jersey, The New York Times reported Tuesday. The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Manhattan district attorney are looking into whether Christie administration’s pressured the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey to subsidize repairs to the Pulaski Skyway even though it wasn’t in the agency’s authority, the report said.