Economic index slows for San Diego County, but continued growth foreseen

An index projecting economic growth in San Diego County slowed to a crawl in June. However, the outlook remains positive, said the University of San Diego's
Alan Gin
, who compiles the index.

The
USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators
rose by 0.1 percent in June, compared with gains of 0.6 percent in April and 0.7 percent in May. It was the eight consecutive monthly increase for the index. Gin, a USD associate professor of economics, compiles the index for the USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate.

The index stood at 121.4 in June, its highest level since the pre-recession month of March 2008.

A sharp increase in the number of residential building permits issued in June, along with moderate climbs in consumer confidence and help-wanted advertising, barely offset declines in employment, local stock prices and the outlook for the national economy, Gin wrote in his report.

The best news was in jobs added, he wrote. Over the last year, San Diego County has added 24,000 jobs, the best year-over-year job growth since 2005, he wrote.

"Barring an international event (Europe, China, the Middle East) that tips the national economy into a double dip recession, that job growth is expected to last the rest of the year and into at least the first half of 2013,'' Gin wrote.

There's also growth in home construction. The number of building permits issued in the first half of 2012 was up 4 percent over the first six months of last year, he said.

The aggregate figure obscures a wide variation in permits handed out for single-family homes, compared with apartments and condominiums. The number of permits issued for houses from January to June of this year was 23 percent lower than last year, while the figure for multifamily housing jumped 26 percent, Gin said.

Gin said the amount of help-wanted advertising climbed for the 18th month in a row and is now at its highest level since September 2008.