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Licht: No Change In QB Ratings Since February

May 1st, 2014

Jason Licht wasn’t kidding when he said Tuesday that Pro Days are of little value to the Buccaneers.

The Bucs’ general manager said this morning on WDAE-AM 620 that Tampa Bay’s rankings of the 2014 quarterbacks class has been static for more than two months. That means Licht is saying Teddy Bridgewater’s widely panned Pro Day did not impact the Bucs’ brass.

Yes, Joe realizes Licht could be puffing a giant smokescreen, but it sure didn’t sound that way.

“I’ll tell you that our rankings of the quarterbacks and where we have them on the draft board really haven’t changed over last couple of months,” Licht said. “We try not to pay attention to the noise, and we’ve done a great job with that. We still feel the same way about the quarterbacks and where we have them ranked respectively as we did, like I said, back in February.”

Hmm, Joe wonders what to what “noise” Licht is referring? Could it be super NFL Network draft guru Mike Mayock dropping Bridgewater from his No. 1 quarterback ranking in the draft all the way down to tied for fifth overall with Zach Mettenberger, following Bridgewater’s mid-March Pro Day and chatter questioning his size and leadership?

Frankly, Joe was stunned Mayock did such a 180 on Bridgewater, given how phenomenal Bridgewater’s game film is.

If Licht is being forthright, then Joe surely suspects the Bucs have at least two quarterbacks among their top-10 overall players. Now whether the Bucs stick to their board is another matter. Licht did say the perfect pick is one that represents where need meets evaluation.

The noise Licht could be trying to tune out is all the JBF Manziel trumpeting?
They probably already have their guy and he’s already a Buccaneer (McCown or Glennon). This is Lovie ‘Rex is our guy’ Smith, the man who just needs a guy who doesn’t make costly mistakes and a turnover producing defense to win games (according to him)

7 days! I am very curious to see how these draft experts projections match up with reality. Funny how Teddy was #1 a month ago and the only QB in the top 10. Then Manziel joined him, then Bortles. Then Bortles was the best and going #1 and Teddy drops to the 2nd rd. Crazy.

I read an article in PFT that theorizes that all this movement is the “draft experts” catching up with the reality of what NFL types really think. This makes the most sense to me. But Teddy falling so far is a mystery. We will see how it all pans out in 7 more days!

I just don’t know about Bridgewater. I do know that if we draft him with our first pick that I wouldn’t be too happy about it. This guy got blasted in college and seemed to play through any pain. But that was against big east and American conference mostly. If he takes those kind of hits from NFL talent with his slight frame I could see an injury plagued career. Furthermore, if he takes as many hits as he did in college, his small hands would lead to a higher percentage of fumbles. He may be the most nfl-ready QB prospect, but I feel his ceiling is lower and his career will be marred by injuries.

These guys and more are coming out next year. We are not desperate for a QB now and many teams will fill their needs in 14….we will still have McCown & can extend him another year if he performs and Glennon will get some Veteran help with his development.
I am not convinced we will draft a QB….and if we do, it will not be in round 1.

He doesn’t have a great arm, and it was evident when Mayock and others saw him throw live right in front of them. He was accurate in college mostly from 15 yards and closer. So he struggles with the deep stuff and has average arm strength. He might turn out to be a good starter on a team with a good system but he probably will always be fragile and struggle making throws that require a lot of arm strength.

Most of the reported draft board movement is a figment of sports reporters’ imaginations.

Kind of like the political horse races where one candidate is ahead by fifteen points a week before the election — and then the lead “shrinks” to two points over the weekend — nothing changed in the election but the pollsters needed to stop their propaganda and come back nearer reality to save their “credibility.”

Have heard scouts and managers say that they do not have a strong draft board until January or so. And that most draft “movement” has nothing to do with changes in their opinions. Do we really know how the GM’s evaluate Barr vs. Mack? Or Donald vs. Mosley? Or Carr vs. Dix?

I think Tedford came into the process with strong opinions. I imagine that Carr has an inside edge but that Manziel is intriguing. Quick release and some escapability/rollout ability is a big consideration. But I don’t know anything. Others who claim to be on the inside really know nothing either. And we may never know — if a D-lineman is picked, we just will never find out what the Bucs’ quarterback ratings were.

In most cases, the tape tells the big story on a player. However, if the league’s view, not the media’s view on a player changes and the player is expected to slide down the board, why use an early pick on him? Take a highly rated player with the top pick and then trade back into the first round and take Bridgewater if he slides. I’m not convinced Bridgewater is head and shoulders better than the rest of this years QB class, but Lovie, Licht and Tedford might think so

I think the real people doing the evaluating to pay attention to would be the former successful GM’s and player personnel people that are employed at some of the networks (not Dominik) but like bill polian, who was very successful and maybe Brian Billick I am pretty sure they do not have mock drafts but their insight is probably closer to what will happen than to what mc shay, mayock, and kiper have

ToesOnTheLine Says
“The noise Licht could be trying to tune out is all the JBF Manziel trumpeting?
They probably already have their guy and he’s already a Buccaneer (McCown or Glennon). This is Lovie ‘Rex is our guy’ Smith…”

You do realize he only said that because he had no one better to turn to, right? Had he another option he probably would have started someone else. He just got lucky with Rex. One good season and that was the year.

True, but my guess is Lovie is hoping for one good year out of one of his QB’s and then evaluate what he currently has on the roster and address QB next year if need be. I know everyone wants to think a year off changes people, but his core beliefs will most likely still be stifling defense and an offense that doesn’t turn the ball over (which he probably has two maybe all three smart QB’s capable of executing)

Defense is all about making the other team,s quarterback sweat. It all starts with the front 7. After getting whacked a few times, the passer starts thinking about his own survival instead of delivering the pill. You have to have him running for his life !

@bird what if other teams are hoping everyone buys into the non sense and selects him before you. If you like a player and have them rated highly screw what ever else thinks and pick him. A good example of this is Trent Williams a few seasons ago. The redskins pick him up in the first round when before the draft they had him rated late 2nd early 3 round. The dude is a pro bowler now and no one questions if getting him at that spot was worth it

imo , I interpret that as none of the qb’s have significanty wowed them and already determined this draft class is mediocre. my guess is that IF they draft a qb at all it will be in the later rounds and definitely not rounds 1 thru 3. my spin sounds just as logical as yours joe.

There is no doubt in my mind L&L are drafting a QB next week. Lets read the obvious:

1) Lovie brought in McCown bc he did not have faith in MG8 (sorry MGMers, but ur crazy if you argue this point),

2) McCown is Rex – its the best he can do for now, there were no other alternatives;

3) That does not mean Lovie thinks McCown is going to be a franchise QB after 11 years in the league and being 34 yo;

4) As Eric pointed out, Lovie understands the importance of the QB position after giving up a lot for Cutler

Lovie will draft a QB this year bc he is just hoping to squeeze enough out of McCown until our new rookie franchise QB is ready, be that this year or next. But Lovie likely knows he can’t wait an entire year to start grooming a new QB – that could put him 2 years out and it is ridiculous to think he is ok with waiting that long.

Given that the scouting staff is the same as the one that fed Dominik the information leading him to say Bridgewater is not a first round pick, I think it’s likely that Licht has him rated lower as well.

Licht said “our ranking of the QBs….really haven’t changed” with the operative word being OUR. Noise is noise, which is what everything else is.

Buccaneer Bonzai thankfully recalls Licht saying in February that their best ranked QB is not necessarily whom everyone else thinks is best, which at that time was Bridgewater. That statement from Licht is as close to an inside peak to the Bucs draft board may look like at the QB position as we’ve had to date. The only question is, was that statement a smoke screen too?

Noise, smoke screens, sunshine, mocks, yada yada, they all come from the same direction, everywhere! 7 more days and all the speculation’s over. Hallelujah!.

“1) Lovie brought in McCown bc he did not have faith in MG8 (sorry MGMers, but ur crazy if you argue this point),”

Really?!?! Re-read this one, Harry. Your statement makes no football sense?
How many teams do NOT have a ‘veteran’ and a ‘student’. Glennon has 13 games under his belt. That’s not even a full season, so technically, he is still a rookie. He had NO mentor (or worse, he had Freeman to learn from). He had an OC that EVERYONE was predictable and/or crazy (so far two strikes against Glennon learning anything). He had an O-line that was so ‘good’ that they were all dumped, and without compensation. I could go on, but bringing in a ‘decent’ veteran was a move that would have been made by ANY competent HC, regardless of who the ‘youngster’ was. McCown was an excellent choice for a temporary starter( 0-3 yrs).
Of course, we could turn your statement the other way and say that by bringing in McCown, Lovie has no confidence in any of the QBs in this draft. If a third round pick (Glennon) doesn’t need/ won’t get better with tutoring, then surely a first round ‘franchise’ QB is good to start from the first preseason game.
BTW, Licht said today, that he’d be perfectly comfortable with going into this year with the QBs currently on the roster. Smoke? Maybe. Maybe not.
I hope you get the gist of my position. Remember, I only have an eighth grade education. :^)

It will be interesting to see how things go and how these players turn out. Pro days and combine shouldn’t affect scouting decisions significantly, and game film is how most evaluators will set up their draft boards. None of us have a crystal ball, so none of us know who will be a bust and who will be a HOF guy.

I still like Bridgewater as the best QB in the draft. Personally, I think anyone that is talking about his size is the same type of person that would have missed out on a Russell Wilson or passed on Drew B-rees in the 1st round, or even though B-rady was undraftable. Good numbers, good film, good intelligence, but too small for the NFL. Yes, Bridgewater may need to wear gloves to better grip the ball due to his hand size, and that same hand size may be part of the reason why he has more difficulty throwing the ball 50 yards down field. But to think that he will fumble more, when he’s never had a fumbling problem in the past with the same size hands is kind of off the wall, in my opinion. Bridgewater hasn’t suffered a “lot” of injuries due to his size, and has played through injuries he has had. He may get beat up more in the NFL, or he may just play smarter. Hard to say, but again, no one has a crystal ball.

And as for competition level, he may not have had the toughest opponents, but he played well against the best opponents he went up against, including bowl games and in the same respect, didn’t exactly have the talent on HIS team either. Which Louisville WR is set to go top 10 or 15 in the draft this year? And who was Manziel throwing to? Which Louisville OT is set to go top 10 to 15 this year? And who was protecting Johnny Boy? Yes, Manziel had tougher competition, but he also had better talent around him. Bridgewater, with what he had, did pretty darned good. I’d be proud to call him a Buc, even drafted at #7 overall.

Oh, and for the record, Bridgewater’s comp % on passes over 15 yards was 51.14%. That’s better than Carr, McCarron, and Murray… and not too far from Bortles comp % (56.45). He was one of the best in splits for against the blitz, under pressure, rollout, and 3rd down comp %. The best by FAR in passes completed under 15 yards, rarely threw “into coverage”. And those are just split statistics. Before the Pro day, everyone was talking about how intelligent this kid is, how he makes pre-snap reads and reads and understands the blitz (which shows in the splits). He didn’t lose intelligence, or ability, he had a bad Pro day and he’s small-ish in frame and hand size. Thing is, he’s always been small-ish in frame and hands and still had those results.

Perhaps there’s a secret scandal out there and some team contacted Teddy’s agent and told him to tank the pro day so they could take him. Some team in the top 10 though so atleast he knows he’s going to get paid decent.

lol Just sayin’ I too can come up with wild conspiracy theories now and then.