:With [[Jim Tracy|Tracy]], [[Joe Carr|Carr]] and several other less-well-known Republican challengers running, there is the possibility that the anti-DesJarlais vote could splinter and allow him to skate by with a plurality of the vote.<ref name="five"/>

:With [[Jim Tracy|Tracy]], [[Joe Carr|Carr]] and several other less-well-known Republican challengers running, there is the possibility that the anti-DesJarlais vote could splinter and allow him to skate by with a plurality of the vote.<ref name="five"/>

:Republicans criticized [[John Tierney|Tiernery]] about his wife, alleging that he was fully aware of her conduct.<ref name="five"/> [[John Tierney|He]] ultimately defeated [[Richard Tisei]] (D) by fewer than 4,000 votes -- or 1 percent of the vote -- in the general election.

:Republicans criticized [[John Tierney|Tiernery]] about his wife, alleging that he was fully aware of her conduct.<ref name="five"/> [[John Tierney|He]] ultimately defeated [[Richard Tisei]] (D) by fewer than 4,000 votes -- or 1 percent of the vote -- in the general election.

−

:[[Richard Tisei|Tisei]], a former [[Massachusetts House of Representatives|state house]] minority leader, is likely to run again in [[Massachusetts' 6th congressional district elections, 2014|2014]].<ref name="five"/> This time, [[John Tierney|Tierney]] will have an added obstacle for re-election, a [[Democratic]] primary. [[Seth Moulton]], a Harvard-educated former Marine, has launched a campaign to unseat the [[Congress|congressman]]. He has recruited veteran [[Democratic]] strategist Joe Trippi to help with his campaign.<ref name="five"/> Also running is [[Marisa DeFranco]] (D), an attorney who ran unsuccessfully for [[United States Senate|Senate]] in 2012.<ref name="five"/>

+

:[[Richard Tisei|Tisei]], a former [[Massachusetts House of Representatives|state house]] minority leader, is likely to run again in [[Massachusetts' 6th Congressional District elections, 2014|2014]].<ref name="five"/> This time, [[John Tierney|Tierney]] will have an added obstacle for re-election, a [[Democratic]] primary. [[Seth Moulton]], a Harvard-educated former Marine, has launched a campaign to unseat the [[Congress|congressman]]. He has recruited veteran [[Democratic]] strategist Joe Trippi to help with his campaign.<ref name="five"/> Also running is [[Marisa DeFranco]] (D), an attorney who ran unsuccessfully for [[United States Senate|Senate]] in 2012.<ref name="five"/>

According to a Washington Post article in December 2012, it will be difficult for Democrats to win the majority in 2014, in part because the president's party rarely makes gains during the midterm election. Many pundits thought this historical trend might be bucked in 2014 when a CNN/ORC poll asking respondents to choose a hypothetic Democratic or Republican congressional candidate after the October 2013 government shutdown showed a 50-42% lead for the Democrats. However, by November 2013, Republicans took the lead, 49-47%. This swift reverse came after weeks of headlines on the Healthcare.gov website rollout.[1][2]

Partisan breakdown

In 2012, when Barack Obama won re-election by 126 electoral votes, the Republican party maintained their control of the U.S. House, winning 234 seats. The Democrats did make some gains, winning 201 seats. This is up from the 193 seats they held prior to the election.

Following the 2012 general election, Democratic candidates held on to nine seats that had a political lean favoring Republicans by 54% or more. This is down from prior to 2010 where Democrats held 32 seats in that same environment. With regards to ticket-splitting, there were 24 districts in which one party's nominee carried the presidential vote and the other party's nominee won the congressional race. All but four of these instances were won by an incumbent. Of the 435 districts, 241 had a Republican lean, and this has parity to the partisan distribution in the 1990s when Democratic candidates were winning in many Republican leaning districts. While Democratic candidates won more than a million votes over Republican candidates in the 2012 general election, most of the votes were clustered around urban areas as opposed to being broadly dispersed across the country. There are 47 districts with a partisan divide of 70 percent to 30 percent in favor of Democrats. Only 23 such districts exist on the Republican side. Of the 16 districts where the partisan divide is 80% to 20% or more, Democrats represent 15 of them.[3]

Ballotpedia's battleground districts

The purple districts on the Census district map are those found to be competitive in Ballotpedia's study.

Five criteria for “most competitive”

A district must have met one or more of the following criteria:

1. If a district had all six quantifiable predictions/results highlighted (Cook, Fairvote, MOV, 2012 presidential, 2008 presidential and incumbent years in office) and four were of the most competitive nature, purple, they automatically made the cut.

19 districts fit in this category.

2. If a district had all six quantifiable predictions/results highlighted (Cook, Fairvote, MOV, 2012 presidential, 2008 presidential and incumbent years in office) and three were of the most competitive nature, purple, at least two were of the intermediate competitiveness (orange) and they had a “special factor” to the competition (outside spending, redistricting) they were added to the list.

Two districts fit into this category.

3.Anomalies: This includes Republicans or Democrats in a district that otherwise trends heavily toward the other party. The district must also have some other qualifying factor, such as a MOV of ten percent or less, an incumbent who has served less than ten years or a competitive 2014 candidate.

Two districts fit into this category.

4.Presidential differences: A district that may not have all the categories highlighted, but has voted for the other party in the most recent presidential election and the numbers are tight for the incumbent (redistricting was also factored in here).

Two districts were considered “Most Competitive” based only on this factor.

5.Recent effects of redistricting: This is relevant to three districts (IL-12, IL-13 and MN-08). Redistricting in the past three years has caused these districts to be extremely tight and have the opportunity for a very close midterm election (the first midterm cycle these new districts will be going through).

Three districts were pushed into the most competitive list because of this, just missing meeting the other criteria listed above.

The 28 "Most Competitive Districts in 2014"

Color Key

Color

Cook Partisan Voting Index

Fairvote (Projected D%)

Margin of Victory (MOV)

2012 Presidential MOV % %

2008 Presidential MOV %

Incumbent years in office

Purple- most competitive

Even; R or D 0-4

45.1% - 54.9%

0-4.9

0-4.9

0-4.9

0 - 4

Orange- very competitive

R or D 5-7

42.1% - 45.0%; 55% - 57.9%

5.0-7.9

5.0-7.9

5.0-7.9

5 - 7

Green- competitive

R or D 8-10

40.0% - 42.0%; 58% - 60%

8.0-10.00

8.0-10.00

8.0-10.00

8 - 10

House winners labeled this color indicate the party of the House winner being different from the party of the presidential winner of the district in 2012

Districts labeled this color indicate the districts that were pushed into most competitive based on heavily redrawn congressional districts

Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the district went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the district favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.

Outside race ratings

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for U.S. Senate and U.S. House (competitive only) elections. The races detailed below are only those considered competitive. There are six possible designations.

Simpson, however, is taking the race seriously, raking in an impressive $306,000 during the second quarter. Smith, meanwhile, suffered an early setback when The Associated Press published a report last week that he had been using a donor’s private airplane to fly to campaign events.

Since 1918, just one Idaho representative has failed to win his party’s nomination before managing to win in the general election.[27]

Shuster’s (R) primary will pit an incumbent against the anti-establishment wing of the party.[27] It’s not the first time Shuster has faced a serious primary. In 2004, he held off Republican challenger Michael DelGrosso, 51 percent to 49 percent.[27]

He must beat challenger Art Halvorson, who has won early endorsements from RedState founder Erick Erickson and the Madison Project, a conservative group that recently ran a 60-second radio ad hammering Shuster for his votes to raise the debt ceiling.[27]

Halvorson, a wealthy commercial real estate developer who has already put $100,000 towards his campaign, has hammered Shuster for his record on spending issues. Travis Schooley, an Army veteran, is also running.[27]

Honda is regarded on Capitol Hill as a well-liked and congenial figure who coasts to victory every other year.[27]

Challenger Ro Khanna, who has taught at Stanford University and works at a Silicon Valley law firm, is tapping a vast network of tech donors to give Honda a surprisingly tough fight in 2014.[27] During the second quarter of 2013, the challenger raised over $1 million and reported having $1.7 million cash on hand — more than four times the amount Honda had.[27]Khanna has built a formidable operation filled with veterans of Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, including Jeremy Bird, Obama’s national field director in 2012, and David Binder, one of the president’s pollsters.[27]

Honda has the president’s endorsement — and the backing of Democratic power brokers such as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel.[27] While Khanna is likely to draw support from Silicon Valley’s large Indian-American population, Honda enjoys long-standing ties to the Asian-American community, which makes up nearly half the district.[27]

The race is almost certain to extend beyond the June 3 primary.[27] Under California’s newly implemented “Top-Two” system, the top two finishers advance to the November general election, regardless of their party affiliation.[27]

According to Politico there is no incumbent more likely to lose a primary than DesJarlais, the scandal-plagued sophomore Republicancongressman.[27] During the final weeks before the 2012 general election, sworn testimony from his 2001 divorce trial was uncovered in which DesJarlais, a former physician and hospital chief of staff, acknowledged having sexual relationships with patients and even prescribing drugs to one of them.[27] DesJarlais still managed to win re-election in the conservative district.[27]

With Tracy, Carr and several other less-well-known Republican challengers running, there is the possibility that the anti-DesJarlais vote could splinter and allow him to skate by with a plurality of the vote.[27]

Vulnerable after the scandal surrounding his wife, Tierney barely managed to win re-election in 2012.[27] In 2010, Patrice Tierney pleaded guilty to helping her brother file false tax returns in connection with his operation of an illegal offshore casino.[27]

Republicans criticized Tiernery about his wife, alleging that he was fully aware of her conduct.[27]He ultimately defeated Richard Tisei (D) by fewer than 4,000 votes -- or 1 percent of the vote -- in the general election.

NRCC Patriot Program

The NRCC's Patriot Program is the counterpart of the DCCC's Frontline Program and is designed to assist vulnerable incumbents in their re-election bids. The following table lists the current members of the Patriot Program.

Nick Rahall

In September 2013, the NRCC issued a press release in response to Rahall, one of the organization's main targets in 2014, mistaking an umbrella for a lump of coal during a press conference. The press release stated:

"But Barack Obama, the EPA, and Nick Rahall aren’t waging a war on umbrellas – they are waging a war on coal. And yesterday, Bloomberg reported a new front opening in that war – the EPA is set to issue a rule that will completely halt the development of new coal-fueled plants by requiring they meet unachievable carbon standards."[29]

Media mentions

Across the country, media and experts publish stories that chronicle the incumbents that are in danger of losing their bid for re-election. Some of those incumbents mentioned include:

WaPo's "The Monkey Cage" predictions

In December 2013, John Sides' column, "The Monkey Cage," a blog published by The Washington Post, released his first predictions for the 2014 elections. Sides and Eric McGhee, a political scientist, developed a forecasting model that uses numerous factors, including: presidential popularity, economic growth and whether or not it is a presidential or midterm election cycle. "The Monkey Cage" will publish any changes in the forecast.[30]

December 2013:

Democrats will win approximately 48 percent of the popular vote for the House.

Democrats will win 196 seats, for a loss of five seats.

Issues

Government shutdown

Beginning in August 2013, House and Senate members began discussing the possibility of a government shutdown over the funding of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). On September 20, Republicans passed a spending bill in the House that funds the government until December, but strips funding from Obamacare. When Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) announced that the Senate would hold a procedural vote on Wednesday, September 24, many senators began to announce their positions on voting against a cloture, the motion to end debate on a bill. After Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) gave a marathon speech, the motion for cloture was accepted and Reid was able to strip the Obamacare defunding language contained in the Republican House members' continuing resolution (CR).

Following the successful cloture vote and the Senate subsequently sending a clean continuing resolution back to the House, the two chambers began a high-stakes game of hot potato. By September 30, the House had voted and sent three resolutions to the Senate that all were struck down. The Senate then sent back a clean resolution stripped of any healthcare defunding language. With Obamacare being the issue-at-hand, Congress was unable to agree on whether a resolution would fund the landmark healthcare law.[31]

In the midst of the government shutdown in October 2013, talks began regarding the impending debt ceiling.

Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Approval of own congressmen

During the shutdown, American's disapproval rating of their own congressmen reached new a new high, with almost as many people stating disapproval of their member (43%) to approval (44%).
The Gallup poll concluded:

"While members of Congress may continue to argue that problems with the image of the body as a whole is not their fault, and that they are doing nothing more than faithfully representing their particular constituents, it is clear that even their own constituents are less positive about the job they are doing than they were in the past."

Farm Bill

The farm bill is an expansive piece of legislation that provides funding for commodity programs, conservation, trade, nutrition, credit, rural development, research, forestry, energy, horticulture, organic agriculture, livestock, crop insurance, disaster assistance programs and tax provisions.[32] The farm bill is typically passed every five years. The 2008 Farm bill expired September 30, 2012. Congress extended the 2008 bill for one more year, bringing us to the current controversy over the 2013 Farm Bill.[33]

The vast majority of the farm bill is nutrition--roughly 75% of the total farm bill. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) makes up about 72% of the nutrition budget. Crop insurance is expected to be the next largest budgetary expense.[32]

Nutrition and federal spending are in the cross hairs of the current farm bill debate. Republicans want to see cuts to the food assistance programs and Democrats are concerned with crop insurance fraud.[34] In an effort to push through some type of farm bill, the House has attempted to split food stamps from farm policy and create two separate bills. This is the first time since 1973 that food stamps have been split from farm policy.[35]

If the bill expires on September 30, 2013, effects of not having a new bill would not be seen until December 31, 2013, when the dairy price support program would end. If a new bill is not passed before the current one ends, the program would revert back to 1940's era agriculture laws. Crops would likely not be effected until summer of 2014, when the 2013 crop cycle ends.[36]

Syria

In August 2012, President Obama said the "red line" for U.S. involvement in Syria was the use of chemical or biological weapons.[37] In April 2013, reports surfaced that Syria had used chemical weapons twice in their civil war, but it was not enough for the U.S. to intervene. In June 2013, President Obama authorized sending weapons to Syrian rebels following more reports of small scale chemical weapon attacks.[37]

2012 Election summary

In a February 2013 article in the Washington Post, political scientists John Sides and Eric McGhee argued that redistricting was not solely responsible for Republicans maintaining control of the U.S. House in 2012. By comparing the 2012 election to prior elections, the authors maintanied that additional factors like incumbency and the increasingly concentrated nature of Democratic votes in urban areas contributed to the outcome.[40]

Margin of victory analysis

There were a total of 435 seats up for election in 2012. The following table shows the margin of victory for each race winner, which is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the top-two vote getters. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100%. Some general facts:

30 races (6.9 percent) had a margin of victory of less than 5 percent. Of those 30 races, 18 were Democratic winners while 12 were Republican.

33 races (7.6 percent) had a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent. Of those 33 races, 15 were Democratic winners while 18 were Republican.

87 races (20 percent) had a margin of victory between 10 and 20 percent. Of those 87 races, 23 were Democratic winners while 64 were Republican.

285 races (65.5 percent) had a margin of victory of greater than 20 percent. Of those 285 races, 145 were Democratic winners while 140 were Republican.

The fewest votes were in Texas' 29th District, with only 95,611 total votes. Incumbent Gene Green (D) faced two third-party candidates in the general election.

The most votes were in Montana, with 479,740 votes cast. Montana has a total population of 998,199 -- which is roughly 250,000 above the average district size in states without single districts. Because Montana has only one district for the whole state, its voters per district is higher than the rest of the country. The average size of each district is 709,000. The second-most votes cast came in Colorado's 2nd District, with 421,580 total votes.

The average margin of victory of all congressional districts was 31.85%, meaning that on average the winner of each race received nearly twice as many votes as the top opponent. Average MOV for Democratic winners was 35.7%, while the average for Republicans was 28.6%.

The average number of votes cast per district was 281,917, yielding an average voter turnout of 39.76%.

Margin of Victory in 2012 United States House of Representatives Elections