ANALYSIS-Despite budget win, Obama has weak hand with Congress

October 20, 2013|Reuters

* White House eyeing more executive actions

* Obama seeks to build coalitions

* Republican aide: Immigration reform looks "even tougher"now

By Jeff Mason

WASHINGTON, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Despite his win last week ina debt ceiling standoff with Republicans, President Barack Obamahas limited ability to achieve his policy goals throughlegislation, which could result in increased use of executivepowers, administration officials and Democratic strategistssaid.

The 16-day partial government shutdown highlighted Obama'schallenges in basic governing. Although he refused to concede toRepublicans in exchange for reopening the government and raisingthe U.S. borrowing limit, he could not block the emergence ofwhat he called a "manufactured" crisis.

The president would now like to seize momentum to pushforward three legislative priorities: the farm bill, immigrationreform and a more lasting budget deal.

But his chances of progress on those issues, particularlyimmigration reform, depend on convincing embittered Republicansto work with a White House many of them detest. That leavesObama more or less at the same strategic juncture he encounteredbefore the shutdown began.

"His only play is to just keep being consistent about tryingto find ways for bipartisan cooperation on the things that needcongressional action and then try to continue what he's beendoing for years now ... and that's looking for ways to move theball through executive action," a senior White House officialtold Reuters.

"In that sense, nothing has changed in our approach exceptthat we and the whole town had to burn however many weeks onthis detour - which is a shame."

Already this year, Obama has relied on executive actions toenact climate change and gun control policies that had weakcongressional support. He could use the same authority to bypasslawmakers on other regulatory questions.

But that strategy has limits. Some of the administration'sclimate rules are being challenged at the Supreme Court, andObama still needs Congress to enact the major reforms that hisadvisers hope will define his legacy.

"Obama did himself no favors when it comes to his own policypriorities," said an aide to John Boehner, the Republicanspeaker of the House of Representatives.

"His refusal to negotiate in good faith makes it difficultfor our members to work with him on other big priorities.Immigration reform, already a huge task, looks even tougher."

The error-filled rollout of Obama's signature healthcareprogram hurts his ability to focus on other domestic policygoals as well. Republicans plan to hammer the administration incoming weeks over flaws that have prevented people from signingup for health insurance through new exchanges.

House Republican efforts to delay or defund the healthcarelaw, popularly known as Obamacare, triggered the partialgovernment shutdown.

BUILDING COALITIONS

Lawmakers' votes on Wednesday to prevent the United Statesfrom going into default showed a narrow pathway to findingbipartisan support.

The Democratic-led Senate passed the measure to reopen thegovernment and extend the debt ceiling on an 81-18 vote, whilethe Republican-controlled House passed it 285-144.

That vote tally - 87 House Republicans supported the bill -combined with rock-solid unity among Democratic lawmakers, givesObama's allies hope he can build other coalitions.

"I will look for willing partners wherever I can to getimportant work done," the president said on Thursday. "Andthere's no good reason why we can't govern responsibly, despiteour differences, without lurching from manufactured crisis tomanufactured crisis."

The first test of whether lawmakers can avert another crisiscomes as a bipartisan panel considers a plan, due by Dec. 13, to reduce the deficit. Under the compromise forged last week,the government would be funded through Jan. 15 and the debtceiling lifted through Feb. 7.

That tight time frame does not allow much room for thepresident's other policy priorities to gain traction.

Democrats believe, however, that Obama's bargaining hand maybe strengthened by the thrashing Republicans took in opinionpolls over their handling of the shutdown.

"This shutdown re-emphasized the overwhelming public demandfor compromise and negotiation. And that may open up a window,"said Ben LaBolt, Obama's 2012 campaign spokesman and a formerWhite House aide.

"There's no doubt that some Republican members (of Congress)are going to oppose policies just because the president's forit. But the hand of those members was significantly weakened."

If he does have an upper hand, Obama is likely to apply itto immigration reform. The White House had hoped to have a billconcluded by the end of the summer. A Senate version passed withbipartisan support earlier this year but has languished in theRepublican-controlled House.