They could be a contender ... some of the films set for screenings this autumn

Now that Cannes has rolled up its red carpet for another year, the film festival circuit takes a breather over the summer (the studenty charms of Edinburgh notwithstanding). Kicking off what is now known as the "fall movie season", the next major rush of festival premieres comes as autumn arrives, with the double whammy of the Venice and Toronto film festivals (the former opening on 27 August, and the latter on 4 September).

Each has their own distinctive character – Venice its old-Europe sheen, Toronto its crack-the-US-market buzz – and a number of films play both, though they only give the all-important world premiere to the one they like the best. The picture is also muddied a little by the boutique Telluride film festival in Colorado, which tends to nick one or two high-profile films from Toronto for unofficial world premieres (12 Years a Slave and Labor Day got the sneak preview treatment last year).

SET FOR VENICE …

Inherent Vice

Vice boy ... Joaquin Phoenix. Photograph: Alessandra Tarantino/AP

Paul Thomas Anderson's adaptation of Thomas Pynchon didn't make Cannes, so it's a virtual certainty for the autumn festivals – and since PTA's last film, The Master, premiered at Venice, we're betting on more of the same, with possibly the gala-opening slot for good measure. Inherent Vice sees Anderson reunite with Joaquin Phoenix; the latter plays a PI looking for an old girlfriend and her new lover.

Big Eyes

The eyes have it ... Tim Burton. Photograph: Patrick Rideaux / Rex Features

Since he became such a Hollywood big-shot, Tim Burton doesn't seem to go in for the film festival circuit these days. His last film to get a major-festival premiere was Corpse Bride, which came to Venice in 2005 (and three days later went to Toronto). Big Eyes, his Oscar-tipped biopic of round-eyed-waif painter Margaret Keane and her huckster husband Walter (as played by Amy Adams and Christoph Waltz) has a release date just before Christmas, so it looks set for another European platform preview.

Suite Française

On the run ... Suite Française

Little could be more old-Europe, cinematically speaking, than Saul Dibb's upcoming adaptation of Irène Némirovsky's celebrated novel of the Nazi occupation of France, with Michelle Williams, Matthias Schoenaerts and Kristin Scott Thomas. Written during the war, but not discovered until the late 90s, it looks to be a potent cocktail of despair, displacement and period hats.

Far from the Madding Crowd

Alone at last ... Far From the Madding Crowd. Photograph: Fox Searchlight

We were fairly confident Thomas Vinterberg's version of the Thomas Hardy classic – previously filmed, of course, with Julie Christie and Terence Stamp in the lead roles – would fetch up at Cannes. But it didn't. A Venice slot, giving it a gilding of Euro art film, would appear to be indicated, and with Michelle Williams, Carey Mulligan, Juno Temple and Schoenaerts available for duty, a red-carpet number is a strong possibility.

Magic in the Moonlight

Again, the feeling was that Woody Allen's latest would fetch up in Cannes, especially with its south-of-France setting. But perhaps Allen's backers are playing it a little cleverer, what with his renewed box-office clout. Magic, a Rivera crime romp with Colin Firth and Emma Stone, is set for a mid-September release, so an adjacent film festival premiere looks likely; given Allen's predisposition for Europe, Venice seems probable. Even more so in the wake of the Dylan Farrow controversy, as Allen would no doubt seek some shelter from the US press.• First look: Magic in the Moonlight

A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence

Strictly for the birds ... A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on its Existence

The film with arguably the greatest title ever was another one that looked a decent possibility for Cannes, being the latest from eccentric Swedish auteur Roy Andersson. Apparently the third in a trilogy (formed by his two previous features, 2000's Songs From the Second Floor and 2007's You, the Living), we are primed to expect the unexpected. At Venice, rather than Toronto though.

The Cut

Word free zone ... Fatih Akin. Photograph: Graeme Robertson

Turkish-German auteur Fatih Akin has been a little quiet of late, with only the ramshackle restaurant comedy Soul Kitchen appearing since his last major film, 2007's Edge of Heaven. But he looks to be back in his ambitious mode with The Cut, with A Prophet's Tahar Rahim in the lead. However, Akin has let little slip since he pulled the film out of contention for a Cannes slot, other than that Rahim's character remains silent throughout the film. Akin will be looking at the chin-stroking admiration of Venice attendees, no doubt, rather than the hucksterish efficiency of Toronto.

TELLURIDE, WE TELL YA, TELLURIDE …

Unbroken

It's bit of a crap-shoot attempting to second-guess Telluride, as a) they've tended to keep their big reveals under wraps until the very last minute and b) Toronto's broadside could make a big difference. But we think Angelina Jolie's second directorial effort fits the bill. Jolie doesn't exactly find it difficult to drum up publicity, and her studious personality would appear to prefer a less hysterical, more contemplative environment. Then again, the Italian background of Unbroken's protagonist, prisoner of war Louis Zamperini, might mean Venice go after it; but the rousing Americana of the subject matter would likely play best on the other side of the Atlantic.• Jack O'Connell on starring in Unbroken

While We're Young

Brooklyn bound ... Noah Baumbach. Photograph: Graeme Robertson

Twenty-four carat indie Noah Baumbach is a favoured son of Telluride – Frances Ha and Margot at the Wedding both premiered there – so his new one, While We're Young, is a good call for this year's edition. Apparently following "a Brooklynite twentysomething couple who cross paths with an older, fortysomething couple", it stars indie royalty Ben Stiller and Adam Driver, alongside slightly tarnished ex-indie royalty Naomi Watts.

Carol

Perfect for Christmas … Cate Blanchett in Carol. Photograph: ian

Todd Haynes directs this adaptation of the Patricia Highsmith novel The Price of Salt, spotlighting the romance between two women in 1950s New York. Rooney Mara stars as a lonesome department store clerk, ushered under the wing of Cate Blanchett's moneyed, middle-aged customer. Haynes' last project - the HBO mini-series Mildred Pierce - screened at Venice, which suggests that it remains a toss-up where this one will go.

The End of the Tour

Given Telluride's history as a welcoming shelter for hard-to-sell indie products, space might be found for this study of Infinite Jest author David Foster Wallace, who killed himself in 2008. Taken from a series of on-the-road articles by Rolling Stone reporter David Lipsky, it stars Jason Segel as Wallace and Jesse Eisenberg as Lipsky – cult status beckons, if nothing else. Telluride will be interested, if it cuts the mustard.

TO TORONTO …

Gone Girl

Looking for trouble ... Ben Affleck in Gone Girl

Fresh from his adventures on The Social Network, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and House of Cards, director David Fincher looks the ideal choice to tackle Gillian Flynn's bestselling novel of American unease; just as Toronto appears the perfect launchpad for the film itself. Ben Affleck headlines as the downsized husband, becalmed back in his Missouri hometown and suspected of murdering his missing wife (Rosamund Pike).• First look: Gone Girl • Ending rewritten for the movie

Birdman

Strictly for the bird 2 ... Michael Keaton. Photograph: Sarah Lee

Alejandro González Iñarritu helped kickstart the "buena onda" of Latin-American cinema with his electrifying Amores Perros back in 2001. Birdman, however, swoops in as as an English-language satire on fame and its consequences, starring Michael Keaton as a middle-aged actor, struggling to shake off his old superhero role and mount a Broadway adaptation of a Raymond Carver short story. We thought we'd spot it Cannes. We've now brought out the binoculars to look further afield.

Men Women & Children

Manchild ... Ansel Elgort

His most successful films – Juno, Up in the Air - benefited from the Telluride boost, but Jason Reitman is perhaps under more pressure than any other film-maker to stay loyal to Toronto. Apart from anything else, Tiff has been the recipient of much backing from the Reitman clan (the square containing the fest's main venue is named after them), so it would be a shock if Reitman's new one, a study of teenagers' (and their parents') sexual kinks, adapted from Chad Kulgren's novel and starring hot young thing Ansel Elgort, were to premiere anywhere else.

My Old Lady

Flat sitter ... Maggie Smith

We've a hunch about a Toronto slot for My Old Lady, which lights out for Paris in the company of Kevin Kline's impoverished American, who discovers a mysterious mother and daughter (Maggie Smith, Kristin Scott Thomas) supposedly squatting in his late father's apartment. Our hero wants to sell the place and pocket the profits, but the guests will not be moved. The film marks the directing debut of the veteran US playwright Israel Horowitz, who turned 75 in March. "Of all my stage-plays, My Old Lady is my very favourite," he explained to the Hollywood Reporter.

Rosewater

Maziar Bahari is an Iranian-Canadian journalist who was arrested and imprisoned in Iran by the Ahmadinejad regime following comments he made on Jon Stewart's Daily Show back in 2009. Now his experiences have been spun into a feature-length drama by Stewart himself, who makes his directing debut and casts Mexican actor Gael García Bernal in the lead. Rosewater (the title named for the stench of the hero's shadowy interrogator) was adapted by Stewart (with reported assistance from JJ Abrams) from Bahari's book, Then They Came For Me.

Suffragette

It will be a tough call to get this ready for the autumn festivals, considering they were still filming in April. But if they do, expect a prominent berth at Toronto for a sure-to-be-rousing study of women's-vote campaigners; commercially minded British films have flourished at the festival in recent years. Sarah "Brick Lane" Gavron directs a script by Abi "The Iron Lady" Morgan, with Meryl Streep, Carey Mulligan and Helena Bonham Carter rounding out the cast.

The Imitation Game

Breaking the code ... The Imitation Game

One of the most anticipated British (at least in name) films of recent years, this has Benedict Cumberbatch as tortured cryptography genius Alan Turing, who cracked the Germans' code at Bletchley Park but who found only disgrace and ruin after being prosecuted for homosexuality in 1952. A blue-chip cast supports Cumberbatch; with Harvey Weinstein behind it, this is sure to use Toronto as a springboard for an Oscar bid. Cumberbatch had no fewer than four films playing at Tiff last year.

Wild

Reese's pieces … Witherspoon in Wild

There's a lot of excitement surrounding this adaptation of Cheryl Strayed's self-empowerment memoir of her thousand mile trek up the west coast of the US. Reese Witherspoon plays Strayed (as well as producing the film), and Nick Hornby wrote the script – but the killer connection, as far as Toronto is concerned, is Canadian director Jean-Marc Vallée (of Dallas Buyers Club). They'll be straining every sinew to get this.

Theory of Everything

Happy together ... Theory of Everything

Another British-scientist biopic, but this time we're in the company of the young physicist Stephen Hawking, as played by Eddie Redmayne, and his wife Jane (Felicity Jones). Unlike Imitation, this has some British beef behind the camera: Man on Wire's James Marsh is directing, and UK powerhouse Working Title are the producers.

A Most Violent Year

Margin Call director JC Chandor stepped up into the big league with his follow-up All is Lost, containing a remarkable solo turn from Robert Redford. Now Chandor looks to go gritty and epic, a la James Gray, with an immigrant saga set in 1980s New York. Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis) is a successful Latino incomer, whose life and business is threatened by the welter of killing that beset NYC at the time. Any festival would be glad to get their hands on it.

Into the Woods

Bad hair day ... Into the Woods. Photograph: CAP/NFS/Image supplied by Capital Pictur

Stephen Sondheim's po-mo fairy tale reboot is aimed at a Christmas release in the US – which, in truth, would militate against a festival run in autumn. But like Gone Girl, there's a lot of cred here: cast includes Emily Blunt, Johnny Depp and Meryl Streep, and Rob "Chicago" Marshall directs. It remains an outside bet for Toronto, but not impossible.• First look at Into the Woods