Inside the Star

How Conservatives are setting stage for 2015 election: Analysis

Canada’s governing party is grabbing all the legislative tools, parliamentary resources, fiscal levers and campaign tactics it can to land a victory in 2015 — a victory that polls now hint may be elusive.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper 's Conservatives are already utilizing all the legislative tools, parliamentary resources, fiscal levers and campaign tactics they can to land a victory in the 2015 election.

OTTAWA—The permanent political campaign, version 2014, has hit a new level of sophistication. Some might call it cynicism, but let’s call it what it also is: impressive.

Think of it as a three-act play. A power play.

First, there are the Conservative government’s proposed electoral law changes. Then there is Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s campaign strategy, revealed this week in documents obtained exclusively by the Toronto Star. Finally, there is Harper’s budget target for a fat 2015 surplus and big tax cuts that his political rivals would be hard-pressed to repeal.

Put it all together and you see a governing party that is grabbing all the legislative tools, parliamentary resources, fiscal levers and campaign tactics it can to land a victory in 2015 — a victory that polls now hint may be elusive.

The strengths of the play are structural. The Conservatives are setting up a framework that they, more than any other party, are in the best position to take advantage of.

But this plot has underlying weaknesses of the character/human nature kind. Hubris, ambition and frustration can undo the best-laid plans. For all his reputed tactical genius, Harper’s people skills are weak and fail him repeatedly. His caucus contains backbenchers itching for more freedom. His cabinet has cracks with ministers publicly disagreeing among themselves. And his own instinct under fire has been to retrench, not reach out — a reflex he may come to regret.

Let’s start with the strengths.

There is the government’s whopping big move to introduce a bill to overhaul many of the rules regarding how votes are cast, how elections offences are investigated and prosecuted, how much money parties can raise, and how much they can spend.

The new rules would apply to all, but in the case of fundraising and spending, they stand to benefit the Conservatives most. The government wants to raise the limit on individual annual donations to political parties to $1,500 (from $1,200) and the overall spending limit for national and local campaigns by 5 per cent each. A 5-per-cent increase could allow parties to spend about $1 million more.

The law would allow more mid-campaign fundraising outreach to donors (those calls cost money) and not have that count against its spending tab.

“They’re changing the rules so they can spend more money,” says Tom Flanagan, a former Conservative senior aide to Harper and the author of a new book about “permanent campaign” strategies.

Flanagan points to the party’s deep database of past donors upon which to draw. Once the calls are made, he says, “you’ll do a lot more than ask for money … there’s all kinds of things you can do.”

“It’s clearly restructuring of the rules in a way that’s neutral on its face because the rules are the same for all parties, but the Conservatives are far and away in better position to take advantage of it.”

Flanagan suspects that over time the Liberals will catch up, but he says they likely don’t have as large a backlist of donors as the Conservatives.

Then there are the Conservatives’ well-advanced internal campaign plans.

The Star reported last week on the Conservatives’ election readiness strategy and how the party is overhauling its campaign machinery: everything from political operations and information technology, to fundraising and communications. It is building a state-of-the-art data-scraping and data-mining machine to create a “Conservative Digital Nation” (as it is called in the party documents obtained by the Star).

The goal is to identify and recruit more party members, donors and voters. The party has money in the bank but the number of members and donors is slipping. The party must reverse that trend.

With a newly redrawn electoral map, all parties will be fighting the next election on new territory. Documents show the Conservative Party is moving to speed up its nominations, to aid incumbents facing challengers and to tap into parliamentary resources where possible.

It is in the process of cataloguing “incumbency tactics” to help sitting MPs keep their seats. It plans to use the visibility of cabinet ministers on tour across the country to mobilize regional organizers to arrange photo opportunities for local Conservatives. It has set a goal to “connect” the prime minister more “with people.”

Party officials were to discuss with the prime minister’s office the creation of two “categories” of events on Harper’s schedule: “open to members or closed to members.” Part of the “tactical plans and strategies” included “leveraging” the popularity of his wife Laureen. She is to become more visible through a series of videos that will be pushed online to more Canadians.

The party is realigning its computer databases to map the redistributed ridings, hoping to have address data applied to the new boundaries by next week. It will draw on Elections Canada’s poll-by-poll “geospatial” data in May to flesh out detailed profiles of the Canadian electorate. By November, it will have more data from Elections Canada, “which through processing is akin to an electors list,” one Conservative document says.

“Everything we do is part of the strategy to ensure we win in 2015 with another majority government,” another document quotes executive director Dimitri Soudas saying.

Then there is the federal budget. If all goes to plan — a Conservative source tells the Star — the government would deliver tax cuts in a first budget implementation bill next year. It would pass the legislature by June and be in effect by a September election call for the Oct. 19 election mandated by law.

Last week a whole new debate opened up over whether those tax cuts would include income-splitting, with sources saying Prime Minister Stephen Harper agrees with Finance Minister Jim Flaherty that there are better ways to deliver tax cuts to benefit more people. Whatever form they take, the Conservatives believe they will be able to jam their political rivals, forcing the Liberals and the NDP to campaign on repealing tax cuts.

All this is well and good as a plan. The levers of power are being pulled, just as previous Liberal governments have done in the past in bids to win re-election.

But let’s take a look at the weaknesses. This is where Harper perhaps should have also studied William Shakespeare, not just Friedrich Hayek.

And he once again faces MPs angling to reopen the issue of abortion — dear to many hearts in the social conservative wing — over his express disapproval.

One of the documents obtained by the Star indicates fences need mending. “We need to rebuild confidence with caucus from the PMO and HQ,” said the party’s executive director to a private gathering of party organizers.

Then there are signs of cracks in cabinet. Harper’s ministers have publicly disagreed over whether to back Toronto Mayor Rob Ford, whether to have a referendum on the Senate, and now whether to proceed with an election promise to offer a tax cut to families with children where there is a stay-at-home parent and a high-wage earner, allowing them to split their income for tax purposes.

In the Senate, the Conservative members have displayed streaks of independence when it came to a government-supported bill on union salary disclosures. Some bucked the move to suspend colleagues Pamela Wallin, Mike Duffy and Patrick Brazeau, pending the outcome of an RCMP investigation.

And what was Harper’s instinctive move through the worst of last year’s Senate spending scandal and the loss of his respected chief of staff, Nigel Wright? It was to retrench and surround himself with longtime, loyal though very young political staff.

Flanagan says these staffers have experience in “political combat” but not “broader life experience and working in the world somewhere in business, or academia or labour unions or whatever … It’s a bad sign when that’s primarily what you’ve got.”

Harper has few allies among provincial premiers. Quebec and Ontario are sniping at him in the open.

Finally there is a big unknown: what will be the end result of those RCMP investigations? And will the people Harper once trusted as political allies be part of a political downfall or a backdrop to an incredible comeback story?

It all makes this political theatre fascinating to watch. You might as well grab some popcorn. It will be a long-running play.

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