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Fiscal consolidation and recovery in Armenia : impact of the global crisis on a small open economy (Английский)

Аннотация

Armenia had a strong record of sustained economic growth before the global economic and financial crisis. However, Armenia remains a low-spending country compared to income-level peers. From 2001 to 2008, Armenia's total expenditure to Gross Domestic ... Подробнее +Armenia had a strong record of sustained economic growth before the global economic and financial crisis. However, Armenia remains a low-spending country compared to income-level peers. From 2001 to 2008, Armenia's total expenditure to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fluctuated between 19 and 23 percent, compared to a Europe and Central Asia average above 30 percent of GDP. The recent global crisis put a brake on Armenia's decade-long economic expansion, exacerbating fiscal and debt pressures. The August 2008 conflict between Russia and Georgia was the first event to affect the Armenian economy, given its dependence on transit through Georgia. A few months later, the effects of the global economic crisis reached the country by means of reduced exports (-32.8 percent by the end of 2009 from the previous year), imports (-25 percent) and remittances (-35 percent). This had a direct impact on the domestic economy, particularly on the construction sector (-54 percent by the end of 2009). The economy contracted by 14.1 percent in 2009. As a result, non-grant revenues declined by 13 percent and tax revenues declined by 14 percent, while public expenditures increased by more than 14 percent to shore up the domestic economy and protect the poor and vulnerable. As a result, the debt-to-GDP ratio increased to 40 percent by the end of 2009 and is projected to reach 42 percent by the end of 2011. Although these levels of public debt are not unprecedented for Armenia, the current situation is very different from earlier debt accumulation.
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