Superstorm Sandy rewrites the book on storm surge

Floridians expect erosion, flooding and wind damage from hurricanes, but the catastrophic effects of storms that cause significant surges are hard to grasp

By KATE SPINNERkate.spinner@heraldtribune.com

Superstorm Sandy and its catastrophic impact on New York and New Jersey may prove to be a game-changer in how Florida girds for hurricanes.

The monster storm could help rewrite the book on what is emerging as perhaps the greatest hurricane threat: storm surge.

Sandy, which started as a relatively weak Category 1 hurricane, became a monster after combining with a winter cold front. Insured losses along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are estimated at $10 billion, with economic damages estimated at as much as 5 times that amount.

Coupled with what emergency planners learned from Tropical Storm Debby and Hurricane Isaac, two systems that brought widespread flooding and severe erosion to coastal Florida, Sandy's aftermath will factor into discussions about Florida's vulnerability to storm surge.

Local leaders and the public need to be aware of the risk, said Bryan Koon, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

"If it can happen in an area that does not get hurricanes that often, it can definitely happen in Florida," Koon said.

Tropical Storm Debby was a lingering drencher that gnawed at west coast beaches and dumped flooding rain across the state's rural north.

Isaac caused the worst damage in Palm Beach County, where rain bands created massive flooding.

Floridians expect coastal erosion, flooding and wind damage from tropical storms and hurricanes, but the catastrophic effects of storms that cause significant surges are much harder to grasp.

People do not want to believe the doomsday sound of the worst-case scenario, but Sandy showed that such predictions have to be taken seriously.

Sandy struck the northern coast of New Jersey on Oct. 29 with tropical storm-force winds that spanned 900 miles from Delaware to Massachusetts.

The disorganized center of the storm, which lost its tropical circulation hours before striking land, brought its most intense winds — up to 90 mph gusts — to Long Island.

But it was not the wind alone that made Sandy such a monstrosity.

It was surge.

The storm's large expanse of wind pushed the roiling Atlantic over barrier islands, up bays and rivers and into streets, homes and eventually subway tunnels.

Although Sandy took some local officials, and many residents, by surprise, scientists had been producing disaster studies warning of the risk for years. Last year's Hurricane Irene, which caused $19 billion in damage, was envisioned as a major threat for New York City, though that never materialized. The city's emergency planners envisioned the damage that a storm like Sandy could bring in hazard plans developed in 2006 and 2009.

"Scientists and emergency managers took it seriously," said Betti Johnson, principal planner for the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council. "It was doubtful that all the local officials recognized that vulnerability."

For Florida, especially the Tampa Bay area, Sandy serves as strong evidence that scientists and emergency managers aren't just trying to frighten people when they say an area is at risk.

Last year, the Tampa Bay and Southwest Florida regional planning councils updated evacuation maps to account for new federal storm surge predictions that included very wide hurricanes for the first time.

It is an understatement to say those new predictions came across as alarming. Two-thirds of Sarasota County, for example, would be under saltwater under the worst-case scenario.

"At first we were somewhat taken aback. It obviously increased the areas that would be vulnerable to storm surge," Johnson said.

The worst case is still not likely, but it is possible.

But storms do not have to be the worst case to cause incredible damage. Sandy was not the worst case for New York and New Jersey. Neither was Hurricane Ike for Galveston, Texas, in 2008 or Katrina for New Orleans in 2005.

"Now we're seeing these are not just flukes, that the size of the storm has significant impacts on our vulnerability and we're not immune to that," Johnson said.

In many ways, if a storm like Sandy had struck Miami or Tampa and caused similar damage, Florida would have been better prepared than the Northeast, where long lines for gas and millions of power outages left people extremely frustrated after the storm.

Florida's utility infrastructure is more resilient in the face of strong winds, and the state has worked with gas stations and grocery stores to make sure they have generator back-ups in case of disaster, said Koon, the Florida Division of Emergency Management director.

"We were fortunate that no hurricane made landfall, but we certainly were active," Koon said, referring to floods in North Florida during Tropical Storm Debby and flooding on the east coast from Hurricane Isaac.

In general, Floridians seemed aware of the storm risks and they listened to emergency officials during those two recent events, Koon said.

"I did not hear the phrase 'just a tropical storm' coming out of people's mouths. People paid attention to those storms and gave those storms the respect they deserved," Koon said.

If Southwest Florida residents did not understand storm surge before this hurricane season, they are more likely to appreciate it now, with Debby as one example and Sandy as a far-away reminder.

Debby lingered more than 100 miles offshore of Southwest Florida for more than two days, never growing stronger than a tropical storm. But it still created a two- to four-foot storm surge that ripped up beaches and sidewalks and sent sailboats crashing ashore.

"For a storm that was so far away it was interesting how much of an effect it had on us," said Ed McCrane, Sarasota County's emergency management director. "People got a taste of what a minimal storm surge can do. Imagine five to 10 feet."

During the next year, planners and emergency managers across the nation will have 2012's storms, particularly Sandy, foremost in their minds.

Koon was recently in New Orleans to help plan the agenda for the National Hurricane Conference in March, and Sandy dominated those discussions.

"The lessons learned will be coming out over the next year," he said. "I'll definitely want to sit down and have conversations with folks and say, 'What do we need to worry about?'"