Four Reasons We Need Less Gas

As the debate unfolds about whether to build a 1,711-mile pipeline to
carry crude oil from the tar sands in Canada to refineries in Texas,
the focus is on the oil spills and carbon emissions that inevitably come
with it. But we need to ask a more fundamental question. Do we really
need that oil?

The United States currently consumes more
gasoline than the next 16 countries combined. Yes, you read that right.
Among them are China, Japan, Russia, Germany, and Brazil. (See data.)

But
now this is changing. Not only is the affluence that sustained this
extravagant gasoline consumption eroding, but the automobile-centered
lifestyle that was considered part of the American birthright is fading
as well. U.S. gasoline use has dropped 5 percent in four years.

Four key developments are set to further reduce U.S. gasoline use: a
shrinking car fleet, a decline in the miles driven per car, dramatic
mandated future gains in new car fuel efficiency, and the shift from
gasoline to electricity to power our cars.

The U.S. fleet appears
to have peaked at 250 million vehicles in 2008. From 1994 through 2007,
new-car sales were in the range of 15–17 million per year. Since then
they have totaled 10–13 million per year, and they are unlikely to top
14 million again. Retirees likely will exceed sales of new cars
throughout this decade.

The contraction that began when the fleet
dropped from 250 million in 2008 to 248 million in 2010 is likely to
continue. Sales of new cars are not matching those of earlier years in
part because the economic prospect has dimmed and in part because we are
still urbanizing. Today 82 percent of us live in urban areas where cars
are becoming less essential.

On top of urbanization, we also
have a change in the manner in which young people socialize. For
teenagers in rural communities a half century ago, getting a driver’s
license and something to drive—a car, a pickup, or even a farm truck—was
a rite of passage. That’s what everyone did.

This too is
changing. Today’s teenagers, most of whom grew up in an urban setting,
socialize through smartphones and the Internet. For many of them, a car
is of little interest. The number of licensed teenage drivers in this
country—the car owners of the future—has dropped from a peak of 12
million in 1978 to 10 million today.

Cities are also being
redesigned for people. Among other things, this means cities are
becoming pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly, with ready access to public
transit.

Many cities are building a cycling infrastructure of
bicycle trails, dedicated bike lanes, and bike racks for parking.
Bike-sharing programs are showing up, too. In Washington, D.C., the
Capital Bikeshare program that began in 2010 has expanded to 116
stations with 1,100 bicycles. Within the first year, some 16,000 riders
signed up for annual membership in the program. Denver and Chicago have
similar bike share programs. And New York City is about to launch a huge
program of its own.

The second reason that gasoline use is
falling is the decline in miles driven per car. This is partly in
response to economic uncertainty and the high price of gasoline. When
gas costs nearly $4 a gallon, people think twice before jumping in a car
and using a gallon of gasoline to pick up a half-gallon of milk.

A
third trend that is reducing gasoline use is the rising fuel efficiency
of the U.S. automobile fleet. New cars sold in 2008 averaged 27 miles
per gallon. But in early 2009, President Obama raised the average fuel
efficiency standard so that those sold in 2016 will get 36 miles per
gallon. Additional standards announced in 2011 mean that new cars sold in 2025 will use less than half as much gasoline as the 2008 models.

The
game changer in reducing gasoline use is going to come as drivers shift
from gasoline to electrically powered vehicles, including plug-in
hybrids and all-electric cars. General Motors recently introduced the
Chevrolet Volt, designed to run largely on electricity, and Nissan
unveiled the Leaf, an all-electric vehicle. Beyond these, Toyota is
accepting orders for the plug-in version of its Prius hybrid, the
pacesetter in fuel efficiency. It will be followed by a steady flow of
new plug-in hybrid and all-electric car models coming to market.

Although
these electrically powered vehicles are typically more costly to buy,
the day-to-day cost of operating them is extraordinarily low. An analysis
by Professor Michael McElroy at Harvard indicates that running a car on
wind-generated electricity could cost less than the equivalent of
80-cent-a-gallon gasoline.