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Tuesday, 19 November 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Sebastian Vettel made it eight consecutive victories at the United States Grand Prix, so it's no surprise to see him installed as the odds on favourite for Brazil with the bookies offering prices between 1.25 and 1.37 for Vettel to make it nine in a row.

However, Interlagos does have a tendency to produce unpredictable races with rain and safety car periods featuring more often than at some other circuits on the calendar, so it may be worth proceeding with caution (and maybe waiting for the weather forecast) before backing Vettel for victory number nine.

Here are the statistics for the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the Brazilian Grand Prix ,with the most profitable bets listed first and the safest bets shown below:

Wednesday, 13 November 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

The championship was already wrapped up at India but that made little difference to Sebastian Vettel at Abu Dhabi as he strolled to his seventh straight victory, recording his second most comfortable winning margin of the season (second only to Singapore) in the process.

There's little reason to suggest things will be any different at Austin, and the bookies already have Vettel priced shorter than ever, with 1.33 currently being the best price available for another Vettel victory.

There's no denyng that Vettel is a great driver but his dominance makes for poor entertainment, so the sooner this season is over and we can move onto 2014 the better.

Here's a round-up of the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the United States Grand Prix:

Wednesday, 30 October 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Few people would have been surprised when Sebastian Vettel wrapped up his fourth championship in India and you have to congratulate Vettel, but his dominance in recent races has made for a less than exciting championship battle. I'm sure I'm not alone therefore in hoping that next year's regulation changes produce a much more closely fought driver's championship in 2014.

Despite the championship now being decided, I can't see Vettel being any less hungry for victories and the bookies seemingly agree as his odds are even shorter for Abu Dhabi. As a result of Vettel's short odds, the most profitable bets have not always been the driver that you would expect.

Here's a round-up of the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix:

Tuesday, 22 October 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Blog Update: I love formula 1 and I love formula 1 statistics, so I've totally enjoyed running this blog over the last year or so. However, it does require a regular commitment out of my schedule to
prepare the betting statistics and upload the various betting tables and charts before every Grand Prix.

For the next few months I'll be
away backpacking around the world, and although as a big formula 1 fan I'm trying to fit my travel plans around each Grand Prix wherever possible, the reality is that I won't be
able to dedicate as much time to running this blog.

For the rest of the season it's probable therefore that my updates will be limited to a round-up before each Grand Prix of the most profitable bets*, and also the
safest bets, in various formula 1 betting categories.

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races. Odds are generally taken a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the betting markets open.

Wednesday, 9 October 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Due to the tight timescale between Korea and Suzuka, I haven't had time to go into an in-depth analysis of each formula 1 betting market this week, so instead here's a summary of the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, by the form guide in various formula 1 betting categories...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

N.B.
The profit rating is weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the
fact that recent Grand Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming
results. To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a
standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six
Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then
applied the following multipliers; Germany 16.7%, Hungary 33.3%, Belgium 50%, Italy 66.7%, Singapore 83.3% and Korea 100%.

Sunday, 6 October 2013

"This is super performance and they (Red Bull) deserve it. They are winning everything and we have to do better."
" ...Fernando Alonso

It was another uneventful race at the front and the championship looks to be a mathematical formality now. Further down the field though, there was some exciting racing with Nico Hulkenberg in particular putting in a notable performance.

On the betting front it was an excellent week all round for my tips with all four of my sets of tips making a profit and my 'Longer Priced Bets' in particular producing a pleasing return...

Pre Qualifying Tips:

Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Q3 Time (Pole Position):10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 - LOSS
Sebastian Vettel's domination of qualifying continued with his third consectuive pole position.

“There is always some action in this race." ...Fernando Alonso

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.0 (BetFred)
Ferrari have looked to be a bit off the pace so far this weekend but
interestingly, Alonso and Massa recorded the two fastest speeds in the
speed trap during qualifying, so it looks as if their cars are set up
with overtaking in mind during the race. Alonso
started 9th, 5th and 7th at the three previous Grand Prix this season and on each of those occasions ultimately finished in second place. Fernando has also made up places at each of the three previous Korean Grand Prix, so starting from fifth another podium looks to be within his capabilities.

Lap 1 Retirements:20 points on 'Lap 1 Retirements - None' at 1.5 (SkyBet, Paddy Power)
This bet has paid out at every Grand Prix except Monza so once again I'm going to go for a punt on 'Lap 1 Retirements - None'.

Friday, 4 October 2013

"I definitely feel like I have a better foundation this weekend." ...Lewis Hamilton

In recent weeks we've seen some uneventful races, but the signs so far this weekend are more promising. Less than two tenths of a second separated the fastest four drivers in P2, so hopefully we may be in for a more exciting Korean Grand Prix.

There's also the weather to consider and although a possible typhoon was predicted earlier in the week, recent forecasts suggest that's now looking unlikely. The latest weather forecast is nevertheless predicting a 60% chance of rain for Sunday's race, so that's another factor which could potentially lead to more excitement.

Here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Q3 Time (Pole Position):10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 (Coral, BetFred)
Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel have had a duopoly on pole position over the last seven Grand Prix and there looks to be a reasonable chance of that trend continuing, with a Hamilton Vettel one two in both practise sessions so far. Of the two, Lewis Hamilton is available at the better odds and Mercedes have a knack for improving between P1 and qualifying, so Lewis is my choice for pole position.

Qualifying Winning Margin:10 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.62 (SkyBet)
All three of the previous three Korean Grand Prix have seen the front two drivers on the grid separated by less than a quarter of a second with the average gap being 0.12 seconds. The pace of the front-runners has once again been close so far this weekend with less than two tenths of a second separating the four fastest drivers in P2.

Thursday, 3 October 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

If
you want to beat the bookies at formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the
statistics, so over the last few days I've analysed the statistics
to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the
safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets. The
form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the
profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone
who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various betting
categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the
safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Wednesday, 2 October 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Today
I'm going to round-off my analysis of the formula 1 form guide by
covering a few miscellaneous betting markets such as fastest
lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts are based on the last six races with the statistics weighted in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for
each Grand Prix: Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest Lap

Profit*

Winning Bet

Sebastian Vettel

1.83

2

Lewis Hamilton

1.50

1

Mark Webber

1.33

2

Fernando Alonso

-0.17

1

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

Monday, 30 September 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

So
far in the run-up to Korea, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in
the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I move on to the Top Six betting market.

As usual I've compiled two form
guide charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the
second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Current Form):

Top 6 Finish

Profit*

Winning Bet

Nico Hulkenberg

14.00

1

Felipe Massa

0.97

3

Fernando Alonso

0.80

6

Sebastian Vettel

0.45

5

Nico Rosberg

0.40

4

Jenson Button

-0.10

2

Lewis Hamilton

-0.15

5

Mark Webber

-0.53

4

Kimi Raikkonen

-0.76

4

Romain Grosjean

-1.63

2

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races. To
be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on
the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied
the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

Sunday, 29 September 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday
I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets of 2013 in the Winning
Driver market and today I move onto the Podium Finish betting
market.

As usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted
in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire 2013
season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium Finish

Profit*

Winning Bet

Sebastian Vettel

1.22

5

Kimi Raikkonen

1.17

3

Fernando Alonso

1.06

4

Romain Grosjean

0.50

1

Mark Webber

-0.68

2

Lewis Hamilton

-1.25

2

Nico Rosberg

-2.92

1

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races. To
be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on
the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied
the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

Saturday, 28 September 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the build-up to the Korean Grand Prix I've analysed the latest formula 1 results to produce various form guide
charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest
bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the
'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be
covering a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten
Finish, etc.

As usual I've
produced two form charts; the first based on the last six races and
weighted in favour of recent results, and the second based on the entire
2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning Driver

Profit*

Winning Bet

Sebastian Vettel

3.97

4

Lewis Hamilton

0.25

1

Nico Rosberg

-1.67

1

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races. To
be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on
the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied
the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

Monday, 23 September 2013

"We want to fight for the championship but we have a 60 point deficit and we need to be very, very lucky." ...Fernando Alonso

With seven laps to go my post qualifying tips were looking at a clean sweep of seven out of seven successful winning bets. However, late troubles in the race for Paul Di Resta and Mark Webber put paid to a perfect set of tips, but overall I was still fairly pleased with five out of seven winning tips.

On the championship front Sebastian Vettel is looking ever more dominant thanks to his fifth victory in seven races, and unless he suffers at least a couple of DNFs in the final 6 Grand Prix of 2013 then the championship battle is pretty much over. The best price you can get now on Vettel to claim his fourth successive title is 1.01 from Ladbrokes and Bwin, and I think that says it all really.

Anyway, here's a round-up of how my tips got on...

Post Qualifying Tips:

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.75 (Paddy Power) - WIN 28 points
Fernando continues to be a strong podium bet, with his third successive second place finish. His three latest podiums have been achieved from 9th, 5th and 7th on the grid, suggesting that after qualifying (when Alonso's podium odds generally drift out slightly) is the best time to back Alonso for a top three finish.

Total Classified Finishers:10 points on Over 17.5 at 2.1 (William Hill) - WIN 18 points
This was a winning bet but also a missed opportunity as if I'd gone for 'Total Classified Finishers - Over 18.5' which was available from SkyBet, I could have increased my winning odds to 2.75. For the record, that's now seven consecutive Grand Prix where SkyBet's 'Total Classified Finishers - Over/Under' market has produce a winning 'Over' result.

“It was a strange feeling when you see the others making their final attempt and
there’s nothing you can do. " ...Sebastian Vettel

There weren't a lot of bets which stood out as instantly appealing, but I've picked out a few, so here are my post-qualifying predictions for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.75 (Paddy Power)
Alonso
has a decent record here, winning in 2008* and 2010 and finishing on
the podium at all but one of the five previous Singapore Grand Prix. He
also came from 9th and 5th on the grid to finish 2nd at each of the
previous two Grand Prix of 2013, so starting from 7th doesn't
necessarily rule him out of another podium. It's trickier to overtake
at Singapore than at Spa and Monza obviously, but strategy can come into play, and
the safety car has been deployed at least once at every Singapore Grand
Prix, so pitstop timing could be key.

Friday, 20 September 2013

"You want to qualify as high up as possible and, of course, aim for the front row, but that will be tough." ...Lewis Hamilton

As I mentioned after Monza, some bookies now have Sebastian Vettel priced as low as 1.02 to take his fourth consecutive driver's championship, and judging by his dominant form in P2 it would be a brave man to bet against him.

The bookies have Lewis Hamilton priced as the driver with the biggest chance of denying Vettel pole position this weekend. However, Lewis is predicting that even the front row will be tough, so it doesn't look good for Vettel's championship rivals.

Here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Double Points Finish:10 points on Red Bull at 1.44 (Paddy Power)
From twelve Grand Prix in 2013, Red Bull have only failed to record a double points scoring finish on two occasions.

Qualifying Winning Margin:10 points on Over 0.25 Seconds at 1.91 (SkyBet)
The
average qualifying margin separating the front row of the grid at
Singapore has been 0.367 seconds, and given that Red Bull and Sebastian
Vettel in particular looked in ominous form in P2, we may be in for a
similarly comfortable margin in Saturday's qualifying session.

Thursday, 19 September 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

If you like to bet on formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the statistics, and so over
the last few days I've analysed the form guide to see which drivers
have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of
the most popular formula 1 betting markets. The form guide
charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss
for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the
best bets in various betting categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

N.B. The profit rating is
weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the fact that recent Grand
Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming results. To be
specific, I've calculated the returns based on a
standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six
Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then
applied the following
multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%,
Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

Wednesday, 18 September 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Today I'm going to round-off my analysis of the formula 1 form guide by
covering a selection of miscellaneous betting markets such as
fastest
lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts charts are based on the last six races
and as usual I've weighted things in favour of recent results by applying the
following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%,
Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest Lap

Profit*

Winning Bet

Mark Webber

5.83

3

Lewis Hamilton

2.50

1

Fernando Alonso

1.50

1

Sebastian Vettel

-0.58

1

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

Monday, 16 September 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

So far in the run-up to Singapore, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the
Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I look at the
Top Six betting market.

Once again I've compiled two form guide charts; the first weighted in
favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Current Form):

Top 6
Finish

Profit*

Winning Bet

Nico Hulkenberg

17.50

1

Jenson Button

1.17

2

Fernando Alonso

0.83

6

Mark Webber

0.65

5

Sebastian Vettel

0.25

5

Nico Rosberg

-0.02

4

Felipe Massa

-0.30

2

Lewis Hamilton

-0.32

5

Jean-Eric Vergne

-0.67

1

Romain Grosjean

-0.85

2

Kimi Raikkonen

-1.34

3

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races. To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a
standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following
multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%,
Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

Sunday, 15 September 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday
I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets of 2013 in the
Winning Driver market and today it's the turn of the Podium Finish
betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire
2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium Finish

Profit*

Winning Bet

Romain Grosjean

2.50

1

Sebastian Vettel

1.01

5

Fernando Alonso

0.49

4

Mark Webber

0.21

2

Lewis Hamilton

-0.23

3

Kimi Raikkonen

-0.42

2

Nico Rosberg

-2.33

1

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races. To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a
standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following
multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%,
Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

Saturday, 14 September 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As usual I've analysed the recent results to
produce the latest form guide charts showing the most profitable
formula 1 bets,
and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market
and over the next few days I'll also be covering a few other
betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten
Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the last six races
and weighted in favour of recent results, and the second based on the entire
2013 season.
Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning Driver

Profit*

Winning Bet

Sebastian Vettel

3.61

4

Lewis Hamilton

1.50

1

Nico Rosberg

0.17

1

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races. To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a
standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following
multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%,
Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

Monday, 9 September 2013

"I had a big flat spot and I wasn't sure if the tyre would survive." ...Sebastian Vettel

I have to admit that although I have had my favourite drivers over the years, in general I'm a fan of exciting championship battles more than I'm a fan of any specific driver. However, after Sebastian Vettel claimed his 6th victory of the season, the chances of a dramatic finish to the season are looking extremely slim.

There are still seven races to go, but Sebastian Vettel now has a 53
point lead over nearest rival Fernando Alonso, and the bookies have
Vettel priced at between 1.02 to 1.04 to retain the formula 1 driver's
championship.

Here's a quick round-up of how my Monza bets got on...

Post Qualifying Tips:

Shorter Priced Bets:

Double Points Finish:20 points on Red Bull at 1.4 (Paddy Power) - WIN 28 points
Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel were both on the podium, ensuring Red Bull's 10th double points scoring finish of the season.Top Six Finish:10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.7 (William Hill) - LOSS
Lewis
had a slow puncture early in the race, as well as radio problems, and eventually came home in 9th position.

"They didn't put out the last radio message, when I said thank you to Felipe and thank you to the team." ...Fernando Alonso

The latest weather forecast is predicting, "An increasing chance of heavy showers this weekend in Monza for the Formula 1 racing." However, I got caught out at Spa by a forecast of showers which never came, so once again the wisest strategy is probably to wait until closer to the start of the Grand Prix before finalising your bets.

Shorter Priced Bets:

Double Points Finish:20 points on Red Bull at 1.4 (Paddy Power)
This
is a fairly short priced bet to be tipping, but given that Red Bull
have recorded a double points finish at nine out of eleven Grand Prix so
far in 2013, the odds of 1.4 on offer from Paddy power just seem rather
generous.

Friday, 6 September 2013

"The car feels really good so his [Vettel's] car must feel incredible! " ...Lewis Hamilton

Last time out at Spa I correctly predicted Lewis Hamilton for pole position, but other than that my pre-qualifying tips had a disappointing weekend. It may therefore be wiser to pay closer attention to the form guide when deciding on your formula 1 bets this weekend.

It's a crucial weekend for the championship, and the likes of Lewis, Fernando and Kimi really have to start beating Sebastion sooner rather than later if we're going to have a close championship battle, but so far this weekend Red Bull are looking very strong as usual.

It's worth mentioning that the weather forecast is predicting 'scattered
thunderstorms over the weekend', so it may be wiser to wait until
Sunday morning (when a more accurate idea of the possibility of a wet race should be available) before
placing your formula 1 bets this weekend.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 2.0 (Boylesports)
Lewis has had a mixed weekend so far, with the fastest time in P1 and a less
impressive P2, but he arrives at Monza on the back of two podium finishes
and he won here last year. Monza is generally also kinder to tyres than
some tracks, which should suit Mercedes, so the odds of 2.0 offered by
Boylesports for a Lewis Hamilton podium seem reasonable.

Thursday, 5 September 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

If you like to bet on formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the statistics, and so over
the last few days I've analysed the form guide to see which drivers
have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of
the most popular formula 1 betting markets. The form guide
charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss
for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the
best bets in various betting categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Wednesday, 4 September 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Today I'm going to round-off my analysis of the formula 1 form guide by covering a selection of miscellaneous betting markets such as
fastest
lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts charts are based on the last six races
and as usual I've weighted things in favour of recent results by applying the
following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%,
Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest Lap

Profit*

Winning Bet

Mark Webber

10.33

3

Fernando Alonso

3.17

1

Sebastian Vettel

0.67

2

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

Sunday, 1 September 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday
I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets so far this season in the
Winning Driver market and today I move onto the Podium Finish
betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire
2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium Finish

Profit*

Winning Bet

Romain Grosjean

4.50

1

Lewis Hamilton

0.80

3

Sebastian Vettel

0.78

5

Kimi Raikkonen

0.50

2

Fernando Alonso

-0.24

3

Nico Rosberg

-1.38

2

Mark Webber

-1.71

2

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races. To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a
standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following
multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%,
Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

Saturday, 31 August 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the run-up to Monza, I've analysed the recent results to
produce the latest form guide charts showing the most profitable
formula 1 bets,
and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market
and over the next few days I'll also be covering a few other
betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten
Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the last six races
and weighted in favour of recent results, and the second based on the entire
2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning Driver

Profit*

Winning Bet

Nico Rosberg

3.17

2

Lewis Hamilton

2.75

1

Sebastian Vettel

2.42

3

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races. To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a
standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following
multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%,
Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

Thursday, 29 August 2013

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during qualifying at Spa.

The Belgian Grand Prix was far from beng a classic, but qualifying provided dramatic entertainment right up to the final seconds.

So to tell the story of qualifying from a betting point of view, I've recorded the 'bet in play'
odds for the shortest priced drivers and then used
the figures to produce the chart below. Just to clarify, the graph is
based on the odds for each driver to get pole position, not to win the
actual Grand Prix.

Monday, 26 August 2013

"It is still open. We
just need to keep trying to improve our performance and try to turn it
around." ...Fernando Alonso

Unfortunately, this year's Belgian Grand Prix was far from being a classic and couldn't come anywhere near to reproducing the excitement of qualifying. Sebastian Vettel quickly strolled into a comfortable lead and then controlled the race from there on in, so hopefuly Monza in a couple of weeks' time will produce better racing.

Overall, it was also a disappointing weekend for my tips as several of my bets were undone by the weather. A few still came up though, so this is the round-up of how I got on...

Post-Qualifying Tips

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.0 (Ladbrokes, Coral, BetFred) - WIN 30 points
Alonso was up to 5th place by the end of the first lap and then made his way up through the field very quickly, so by a very early stage in the race he was already looking good for the podium.

Saturday, 24 August 2013

"In these conditions, it's more of a lottery and the driver can make more of a difference. " ...Lewis Hamilton

Yesterday
I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Belgian Grand Prix and now that
the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with
another set of predictions.

I've pretty much banked on a wet race with several of these tips, but I reckon the wisest strategy is probably to check the weather predictions closer to the start of the race before placing your formula 1 bets.

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.0 (Ladbrokes, Coral, BetFred)
Alonso was unlucky with the timing of the rain in Q3 and as a result ended up 9th on the grid, but he had the pace in Q1 and Q2, and he seems confident for his chances in the race. Track position isn't as vital at Spa as at certain other tracks, especially if we get a wet race, so although Fernando's podium consistency hasn't been quite as strong this year as it was in 2012, odds of 3.0 are enough to tempt me into a small bet on Alonso to make up places during the race and finish on the podium.

Friday, 23 August 2013

"We have got closer to the favourites, but I'm not sure which weather forecast I would prefer!" ...Fernando Alonso

Last time out at Hungary my pre-qualifying tips managed to sneak a narrow profit which means my current points totals stand at 106 points for my Shorter Priced Bets and 103 points for my riskier Longer Priced Bets.

Anyone betting on the Belgian Grand Prix should bear in mind that the weather forecast is predicting the probability of a wet race, which inevitably brings with it an element of unpredictability. It may therefore be wise to stay away from short favourites, or at least wait until closer to the start of the Grand Prix before analysing the odds and placing your bets.

As usual though, I'll make my predictions and see how I go...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium:10 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 2.15 (Sporting Bet)
Kimi was on the podium at Germany and Hungary, so
he seems to be in solid form at the moment (which should help his agent
with his contract negotiations for next season!). Kimi was also on the podium at Spa last year and won on his previous visit here before that (in 2009), so Spa seems to be a track which suits him.

Thursday, 22 August 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over
the last week or so I've analysed recent results to see which drivers
have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of
the most popular formula 1 betting markets. The form guide
charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss
for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the
best bets in various categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, below...

Wednesday, 21 August 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Today I'm going to round-off my review of the form guide by taking a
look at a selection of miscellaneous formula 1 betting markets such as
fastest
lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts charts are based on the last six races
and as usual I've weighted things in favour of recent results by applying the
following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%,
Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest Lap

Profit*

Winning Bet

Mark Webber

14.83

3

Esteban Gutierrez

13.33

1

Fernando Alonso

4.83

1

Sebastian Vettel

-2.17

1

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

Monday, 19 August 2013

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the run-up to Spa, I've so far analysed the top formula 1 bets in the
Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today it's the turn of the
Top Six betting market.

Once again I've compiled two 'Betting
Profit' charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Current Form):

Top 6
Finish

Profit*

Winning Bet

Jean-Eric Vergne

5.00

1

Jenson Button

1.46

2

Lewis Hamilton

0.91

5

Romain Grosjean

0.70

2

Fernando Alonso

0.39

5

Mark Webber

0.37

5

Kimi Raikkonen

0.31

4

Sebastian Vettel

-0.04

5

Nico Rosberg

-0.94

4

Felipe Massa

-2.09

2

Adrian Sutil

-2.58

1

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races. To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a
standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following
multipliers; Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%,
Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.