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Re: Choo

Kind of on the fence here. I'm inclined to agree with KC regarding Frazier and the NL pitchers catching up to him. I don't see an .800 OPS bat there unless he makes some adjustments. He was quite a pleasant surprise defensively at 3B and he has enough raw power and baseball smarts that he could probably be a passable starter at 3B with his defense and low .700s OPS that he could probably muster with his current ability/approach. I'm still in the camp that thinks he's a good corner OF as well and he can play 1B. I like the idea of reducing his exposure to RHP and making him more of a 400 PA super-sub who plays all the time against LHP and some of the time against RHP that are decent match-ups for him. On a good team, there are valuable players like that who aren't every day starters at a certain position.

Given that, I'm not necessarily in a rush to replace Frazier at 3B. I think the Reds have bigger problems, 3B is fairly weak in the NL right now and I'm not convinced that an upgrade could be easily obtained given the talent and dollars required. I'd say those resources are better spent on bigger problems where the team would probably get more bang for its resources expended. I'm not really into Sandoval unless he could be had for a song or the Giants would take another heavyweight with a bloated contract like Broxton for him. I do think the idea of him in his walk year might get him in better shape and make him a possibility for a big season, but he'd be a rental so I still wouldn't give a bunch for him. I might add a middling prospect/suspect or two with Broxton (say Corcino and Lamarre for example), but that's as much as I'd go.

Last edited by mth123; 10-26-2013 at 06:20 AM.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

Re: Choo

Panda could be interesting in GABP. But, he'll make a LOT more money in 2014 than Frazier, the Reds would likely have to trade someone good for him, and Panda will be a free agent after 2014. Given all that I wouldn't trade for him when he might ONLY be marginally better than Frazier but cost a lot more.

Now, what about that other guy, umm, I think his name is Choo?

"Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

Re: Choo

I like the idea of reducing his exposure to RHP and making him more of a 400 PA super-sub who plays all the time against LHP and some of the time against RHP that are decent match-ups for him.

The only problem with that plan is that Frazier doesn't have the dramatic LHP/RHP splits. I love what Frazier brings with the glove and attitude, so hopefully he can fall somewhere between 2012 and 2013 and we won't have to worry about it!

Re: Choo

Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank

The only problem with that plan is that Frazier doesn't have the dramatic LHP/RHP splits. I love what Frazier brings with the glove and attitude, so hopefully he can fall somewhere between 2012 and 2013 and we won't have to worry about it!

Now that the league has adjusted to him he does. He chases breaking balls from RHP that break out of the zone on the outside. He either misses or tries to pull and makes weak contact off the end of his bat.

2013 OPS vs LHP .782 vs RHP .696
Career OPS vs LHP .829 vs RHP .739

Perfect candidate to sit against RHP with good breaking balls.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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Re: Choo

Originally Posted by mth123

Now that the league has adjusted to him he does. He chases breaking balls from RHP that break out of the zone on the outside. He either misses or tries to pull and makes weak contact off the end of his bat.

2013 OPS vs LHP .782 vs RHP .696
Career OPS vs LHP .829 vs RHP .739

Perfect candidate to sit against RHP with good breaking balls.

That entire difference is from his slugging %. His HR/FB rate was significantly higher against LHP. Luck? Better contact? It's hard to say.

His walk rate in 2013 was even against both, he walked at a higher rate against RHP in 2012. His K% was higher against LHP this season and even in 2012. He does have a higher line drive rate against LHP. Personally, I'm not ready to say he's a liability against RHP vs. LHP, but that's just me.

Re: Choo

Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank

That entire difference is from his slugging %. His HR/FB rate was significantly higher against LHP. Luck? Better contact? It's hard to say.

His walk rate in 2013 was even against both, he walked at a higher rate against RHP in 2012. His K% was higher against LHP this season and even in 2012. He does have a higher line drive rate against LHP. Personally, I'm not ready to say he's a liability against RHP vs. LHP, but that's just me.

All you really need to do is watch and see Frazier repeatedly chasing breaking pitches in the LH Batters box and hitting weak flies into the OF to know why the HR/FB dropped. He'd be a lot better if he didn't have to face RHP with good breaking balls. He'll be 28 in February. I'm not holding my breath for improvement. He is what he is and if it was my team I'd build it on those assumptions. If he improves and ends up manning 3B for 10 years great, I just wouldn't count on it and I'd plan the team as if that isn't happening.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

Re: Choo

Both Frazier and Francisco had big splits throughout their time in farm system, and neither one was a big-time enough prospect to project as a great starter. They were perfect candidates to share a platoon. Never understood why the FO didn't approach it that way. I think Walt has something against platoons, which is a shame, because you can get big production at a small price from a good platoon.

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Re: Choo

Originally Posted by mth123

All you really need to do is watch and see Frazier repeatedly chasing breaking pitches in the LH Batters box and hitting weak flies into the OF to know why the HR/FB dropped. He'd be a lot better if he didn't have to face RHP with good breaking balls. He'll be 28 in February. I'm not holding my breath for improvement. He is what he is and if it was my team I'd build it on those assumptions. If he improves and ends up manning 3B for 10 years great, I just wouldn't count on it and I'd plan the team as if that isn't happening.

I agree except I disagree about the weak fly balls. It's all in Frazier's ground ball rate.

My armchair analysis is that he reaches out, as you say, and pulls the ball. Given his swing, this results in a lot of grounders to short and third.

Frazier is a power hitter. In 2012 he had a .74 GB/FB rate and he was successful. This year his ground ball rate spiked and his effectiveness suffered. He needs to elevate the ball to be successful.

This off-season the Reds will try to upgrade their attack at several positions. The positions that change hands will likely be determined by availability. Where upgrades are available, the Reds will try to move; in some positions they will stick because there is no reasonable deal for someone better.

Re: Choo

Originally Posted by mth123

All you really need to do is watch and see Frazier repeatedly chasing breaking pitches in the LH Batters box and hitting weak flies into the OF to know why the HR/FB dropped. He'd be a lot better if he didn't have to face RHP with good breaking balls. He'll be 28 in February. I'm not holding my breath for improvement. He is what he is and if it was my team I'd build it on those assumptions. If he improves and ends up manning 3B for 10 years great, I just wouldn't count on it and I'd plan the team as if that isn't happening.

I could throw more stats at you that contradict your opinion but I'll just get accused of not watching the games, so I'll just end it here.

Re: Choo

Both Frazier and Francisco had big splits throughout their time in farm system, and neither one was a big-time enough prospect to project as a great starter. They were perfect candidates to share a platoon. Never understood why the FO didn't approach it that way. I think Walt has something against platoons, which is a shame, because you can get big production at a small price from a good platoon.

I don't know if Walt does or not, but I do believe that Dusty was against them. The way he was always trying to make Gomes a full time starter.

Also Francisco burned every bridge I think he could. The organization kept him at 3B, playing him there over Frazier in the minors trying to get him as many reps as they could to help him improve. He used up all of his options, ended a season hurt, didn't let it heal/ rehab the right way, and showed up in spring training out of shape, and out of options. Not much more the team could do. Plus as Atlanta found out, the guy is not a 3B. So a LHH 1B, does us no good.

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Re: Choo

Originally Posted by PepperJack

Also Francisco burned every bridge I think he could. The organization kept him at 3B, playing him there over Frazier in the minors trying to get him as many reps as they could to help him improve. He used up all of his options, ended a season hurt, didn't let it heal/ rehab the right way, and showed up in spring training out of shape, and out of options. Not much more the team could do. Plus as Atlanta found out, the guy is not a 3B. So a LHH 1B, does us no good.

His defensive stats say he's a mediocre 3B and an awful 1B. And Miguel Cairo gave us a .492 OPS in a backup role the year we traded Francisco. I don't want to grind it out with anybody over a mediocre player like Francisco, I'm just pointing out a move I didn't like at the time.

Re: Choo

Regarding Frazier - still not sure if needs to be platooned...beyond that...Price mentioned using too many pitchers for a small advantage and i'm hoping he carries less pitchers and more players to be able to platoon. The scales have dipped too far in using a pitcher to face one hitter while not having enough players to platoon. I think there might be an advantage to be had there.

Re: Choo

Frazier is just good enough to give us hope that he can be a solid starter. Given his plate approach and his ability to play multiple positions and the weakness of the reds bench, I think that'd be a smart idea to find an upgrade at third even if it is a more expensive option than Frazier. It'd upgrade 3b and the bench in one move plus it'd give the reds flexibility in LF if ludwick is the starter at the end of the day and still is hampered by the shoulder injury b

Re: Choo

Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank

I could throw more stats at you that contradict your opinion but I'll just get accused of not watching the games, so I'll just end it here.

That's ridiculous. I've seen all the stats, bring 'em on. Nothing you've posted refutes Frazier's splits. The stats back up what my eyes see and that is that his power drops significantly against RHP. Frazier isn't an on base guy, if he's not hitting for power, he's really not helping that much. If his slugging drops off against RHP, that's a big problem for a player with his profile. He needs less exposure to the types of pitchers who give him trouble. It's not the worst thing in the world. He will still be a valuable player. I'd rather have him for 400 PAs at .825 OPS and let a lefty in there against the RHP that give him trouble, than have him for 700 PAs at .725 OPS for the sake of saying he's an every day player.

Good teams have guys like him and good teams that win don't let them flounder unnecessarily. The problem isn't Frazier as much as Hannahan is a poor choice to pair with him. The Reds need a better LH bat to play 3B some of the time. Eric Chavez would be my choice but he probably wouldn't want to stray too far from the west coast. Get some one of that caliber who can play 75 games or so and let Frazier get starts in RF and 1B and some LF as well as 50% to 60% the starts at 3B.

Wish all you want about Frazier, but he's been splitty since he's been in the organization. What we're seeing is no different than what he's always been. Hope he changes at age 28. I'd plan differently.

Last edited by mth123; 10-27-2013 at 05:52 PM.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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