GSSpinning top day (confirmed bearish harami). Still above the SMA(144) for now. Midpoint above the EMA(10). The 38.2% retrace (153.99) was tested and held. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 152.58).

10YR YIELDBearish long day. The 14.6% retrace is relegated to history. The 0.0% retrace at 28.83 has been beaten (new 0.0% coming). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the SMA(21). New low on daily 3LB (reversal still 31.14).

I know, CV is just being moronic this morning (a phenomenon which is often unavoidable)... But, you know, you have to SEIZE THE DAY and there's nothing much to really SEIZE these days (based on my understanding of the word "seize")...

seize [seez]–verb (used with object)
1.
to take hold of suddenly or forcibly; grasp: to seize a weapon.
2.
to grasp mentally; understand clearly and completely: to seize an idea.
3.
to take possession of by force or at will: to seize enemy ships.
4.
to take possession or control of as if by suddenly laying hold: Panic seized the crowd.
5.
to take possession of by legal authority; confiscate: to seize smuggled goods.

Looking at the markets and the economy these days, one ban begin to understand why (although the latter two definitions ought to arrive at out doorstep at some point or another)...

So since there is not much to seize, let's get back to the subject of PORK BELLIES...

So I guess "Chicks Can't Do Math" (Larry Summers) was really the man, behind the woman, behind the man, after all... When interviewed about the truth to such speculation, Summers leaned over and replied...

I fart in opposite your general direction

Why is it that the only two that are smiling in what "looks" to be a police interrogation room, are the first ones who are abandoning spaceship Obama?

Why would anyone one want to leave in the middle of this blistering RECOVERY? I mean, surely accolades & awards for such an enormous feat of accomplishment should be just around the corner... Right? I mean, there are Nobel Prize awards just a few months away... You should be standing in line to receive yours like this guy...

“It’s absolutely clear that you need a second round of stimulus,” Stiglitz said. “It needs to be better designed. It needs to be focused more on returns on investment, education, infrastructure, technology. And if you do those kinds of high- powered investments, the long-term national debt will be actually lower and the growth in the future will be higher.”

“Unfortunately, with savings going up to 5, 6, 7 percent, aggregate demand is going to be weak,” he said. “The only thing to fill it is government.”

Let's see... CV was just commenting yesterday about the ROI (return on investment) on education...

What you pay today, and what one might expect the ROI on eventual wages & salaries, going forward, to be (and the amount they will be TAXED on those wages - the SOCIAL SECURITY deduction & the idea that they will probably never receive the social security payment when all is said & done)...

"Her bachelor’s degree in game art and design cost $70,000 in tuition and fees. After she graduated in December 2007, she found a job that paid $12 an hour recruiting employees for video game companies. She lost that job a year later when her department was shuttered."

"These days, Howard, 26, makes her living in a way that doesn’t require a college diploma: by stripping at the Lido Cabaret, a topless club in Cocoa Beach, Florida. “I didn’t know what else to do,” she says. “I’ve got a worthless degree. It’s like I didn’t attend school at all.”"

Maybe CV should be a guidance counselor?

So whatever... people... I now return you to your CAPITALISTIC endeavors (which include watching the government shred documents announce reports, and all the red and green candles that that produces)...

Meanwhile... Regardless if the NFP report looks bad/good or sugarcoated, you can go into the weekend and sleep soundly knowing that since Romer is returning to Berkeley, that's considered a "new position" in academia is ANOTHER JOB SAVED BY THE STIMULUS...

10YR YIELDBearish short day (did close below midpoint of previous day). The 14.6% retrace is relegated to history. The 0.0% retrace at 28.83 is eagerly waiting. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.14).

DJ TRANS AVGHanging man day (with a long tail). Another refusal to push higher. Still trading above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4369.71).

XHBDoji day (but first day is too small for doji to indicate reversal). Below all SMA's. Still below 38.2% retrace. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.20).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 8.5.10

Today was pretty much a MIRROR IMAGE of yesterday's action in the credit markets. So that means if you stand on your head and read the REPORT from yesterday, you are GOOD TO GO, homies...

We did nothing. We are bearish equities here after a few fails at 1225-1230 area, and we don't buy the quadruple bottom (or is it quintuple) in TNX as a springboard for a massive bond bloodbath as we celebrate the economic recovery....

JNKBearish short day. Tested and failed the 76.4% retrace. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).

GSBullish long day. Closed above the SMA(144). Still above 147.91 (fib .236). Midpoint above the EMA(10). The 38.2% retrace (153.99) was tested and passed. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 152.58).

10YR YIELDBullish long day. Well below the 14.6% retrace. Almost touched the 0.0% retrace at 28.83 but ran away. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.14).

DJ TRANS AVGBullish long day. Destroyed the bearish harami. Still trading above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4369.71).

Not much good to say about fixed income today as investors abandoned bonds in droves, no not really, but there was probably some selling after a strong week or so in the bond market. Auctions ahead next week, so not unexpected. The 5y got whacked, but that was yesterday's big winner.

We did nothing, although we remain alert, ready to buy on any deep selling of Treasuries this month. Basically we are totally convinced that interest rate risks remain low here, it's not like we are going to create a million jobs any time soon, right Mr Obama? Yup. Thought not...

Back near the April 1220 highs in the S&P, I had a post which reflected how the largest "weighted" stocks (DOW weights are ranked by stock price) seemed to have been a large ingredient of the "secret sauce" that seemed to be pulling the overall indices farther than they seemed to need to go based on the overall economic environment...

It seemed STOCK PRICES were on a mission (and both the DOW & S&P were close to 61.8% re-tracement levels of the moves from the October 2007 highs to the March '09 lows)...

What was UNCANNY to me though was the fact that many of the largest components of the DOW seemed to be doing the lions share of the work... Many had fully recovered their 2007 highs, and some were nearing ALL TIME HIGHS...

Here's a quick look at the largest DOW components since the April 2010 highs:

IBM

Nearing FULL RE-TRACE - Nearing ALL TIME HIGH

MMM

Nearing FULL RE-TRACE - Near ALL TIME HIGH

CVX

Well beyond 61.8% re-trace - At July '08 levels (pre-China Olympics)

UTX

Past 61.8% re-trace - At October '07 levels

MCD

HAS FULLY RE-TRACED April - Within a buck of ALL TIME HIGH

CAT

Nearing FULL RE-TRACE - At July '08 levels (pre-China Olympics)

BA

At 61.8% re-trace - Very close to decade long reverse H&S

---WHAT ABOUT SOME TRANSPORTS?---

UPS

Past 61.8% re-trace - Very close to reverse H&S (from '07)

---SMALL CAP INDEX---

$RUT

Small Caps have lagged the July moves in the large DOW components (yet the $RUT was "late to the party" in doing the DEATH CROSS)...

$INDU

DEATH CROSSED earlier on, but now it seems hell bent on erasing that from memory... Note that many of the above listed DOW components haven't DEATH CROSSED at all (McDonald's is hardly even close)...

There is nothing necessarily sinister about this phenomenon... In fact, it may be very close to reflecting either some economic reality and/or technical reality...

What I noted (in looking back further), is that the same type of phenomenon occurred in the period between October 2007 - September 2008... These same stocks performed VERY WELL during that time period (while the rest of the market, namely financials, were "teetering" and/or getting cannibalized)... It's as if money that was in equities for investment tended to stay in these names for no other reason other than that were performing decently on a technical basis (not doing DEATH CROSSES or terrible things like that)... After all, we know most "Brian's" out there probably only look a a chart once every few years or so...

Perhaps, (on a relative basis), they're doing well now on certain fundamental merits such as:

- cost reductions

- halfway decent balance sheets

- decent cash flow

- better credit ratings (or access to credit)

Basically - "at least they don't SUCK"...

Maybe it's a simple matter of yields being so low on Treasuries, some money is being used to RENT OUT dividend yields for a brief period of time... Though it's hard for CV to wrap his head around that "risk-reward" phenomenon and give it green light...

But it would also seem that the comparisons to the Oct 2007 - September 2008 timeframe is undeniable... So it would also seem that sooner or later the stocks themselves will be exposed to any hiccup in the system that forced the type of mass liquidations which were brought about by the Lehman crisis...

When giants fall, the earth shakes... Or in other terms, you don't want to lose your best horses who are pulling the chariot...

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind.The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind.The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed.The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

I guess it comes down to a simple choice. Get busy living or get busy dying.

- Andy Dufresne

"The Shawshank Redemption"

About this Blog

This Blog's primary focus is on trading based upon technical analysis. It is run by "AmenRa" and "AndyT," quasi-anonymous traders who employ technical analysis to assess market conditions and trading opportunities. AmenRa utilizes 3LB techniques, Moving Averages and Fibonacci sequences. AndyT's analysis relies primarily on "Wave Theory" and Fibonacci sequences. The Comments Section is uncensored and open to the public. Please try and adhere to the "Blogger Policy."