Tony Abbott has acknowledged for the first time that his $3.2 billion ''direct action'' carbon abatement policy may not reach its promised 5 per cent cut in emissions by 2020 but will not be strengthened with extra money.

His comments came as he declared Saturday's election would be a referendum on Labor's carbon tax - a move designed to pressure the ALP to respect the mandate of a Coalition government and allow the repeal bills through the Senate.

"It's unimaginable that a defeated Labor Party would persist with a carbon tax," Mr Abbott said. "Having lost one election through support for a carbon tax, why on God's earth would you lose a second supporting the same failed policy?''

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Asked about his own policy, the Opposition Leader was less definitive: ''We've told you the money we'd spend and we won't spend any more.''

The frank admission came as he was asked at the National Press Club if his recycled 2010 election policy would be fully tested against new economic data, given the doubts about its capacity to deliver serious emissions reductions.

In response, Mr Abbott said the Coalition stood by the scheme.

''We are very confident that we can achieve the domestic emissions reductions within the funding envelope that we've provided,'' he said.

He effectively asked voters to trust so-called ''letters of comfort'' from industry sectors to support its claim of achieving abatement by massive tree plantings, soil carbon programs and other methods.

Mr Abbott said behavioural changes by industry would also help because it was ''in the economic interests of business to try to reduce its costly inputs''.

''Often the most costly inputs, apart from labour, are fuel and power, and a sensible business wants to cut its costs as far as it reasonably can and normally that means using as little fuel and power as possible,'' he said.

''So there is enormous potential there, but the bottom line is we will spend as much as we have budgeted, no more and no less. We will get as much environmental improvement, as much emissions reduction, as we can for the spending that we've budgeted. We are very confident that we will achieve the 5 per cent target that we've set ourselves.''

Under his plan, farmers and industry will be paid to take action to reduce their emissions. The Coalition has budgeted $3.2 billion over the next four years to do this, plant trees, install more rooftop solar systems and take other measures.

The Coalition has not made a definitive statement about what it plans to spend beyond the forward estimates under its direct-action policy.

Several attempts to model the outcome of direct action has found it will not deliver the promised 5 per cent cut with the money budgeted.

Mr Butler said on Tuesday that the Labor Party would not be supporting a move to direct action on climate change.

Mr Butler told ABC radio that Mr Abbott's argument that a losing party should junk all its policies to respect the winning side’s mandate, is a fallacy.

''We are simply not going to junk our longstanding policy position on the most effective way to deal with climate change no matter what happens on Saturday, whether we win, lose or draw,'' he said.

Asked if that would mean using numbers in the Senate to force a Coalition government to go to a double dissolution to repeal the ETS, he replied: ''We'll see what happens.''

Mr Butler said Australia was in good company and almost every nation that had acted on climate change was doing it through a market-based mechanism.

He said experts had been saying for months that Mr Abbott's direct action plan won't achieve its 5 per cent reduction target, or if it does, it will cost billions.

''We have a way that's going to work and he has finally come clean yesterday that his way simply won't work,'' Mr Butler said.

49 comments

Gee, what a huge slap in the face for Gaia and the resulting acceleration of impending doom we all face from 100 metre sea rises, dams not filling with rain, the "Snowy Mountains becoming the Sandy Mountains" (to quote Labor's Mike Kelly), and so on if Australia doesn't cut 5% of 1.4% of global CO2 emissions.

Which of course to most rational, intelligent people (which clearly excludes the Greens and their fellow travellers), is the equivalent of two fifths of stuff-all.

We'll all be 'rooned"!!!!!!!!!

Commenter

Cam

Location

Sydney

Date and time

September 03, 2013, 6:53AM

It really is amusing, in a sad, macabre type of way, when climate sceptics attempt to impugn the intelligence of those of us who place stock in the worldwide consensus of some 95% of climate scientists.

Some of the details in relation to localised effects remain uncertain yet the overall outcome of unabated carbon emissions are clear - the worlds climate will continue to change for the worse. Oceans are warning and consequently expanding in volume, as does any heated water, which contributes to sea level rises, as it becomes more acidic as dissolved Co2 saturates its breadth and depths, inhibiting the growth and survival of a large proportion of the zooplankton from which the food chain is based. This is not to mention the myriad rainfall and temperature changes already causing effecting human agriculture amongst numerous other effects.

The ignorance, or at best, 'quarter truth' based assertions and of climate change deniers would be laughable were the consequences of their smug foolery not so real and consequential for us all. Cam, read the science mate, not the Murdoch. Whilst work is still being done on some of the details of climate change, specifically localised effects and similar, the conclusions and overall consequences of unabated greenhouse gas emissions are 'known knowns' and only challenged by crackpots.

Commenter

Warwick

Date and time

September 03, 2013, 8:19AM

I'm sorry to have to point this out, but Australia was the slowest to act on thalidomide, and was also the slowest to act on asbestos.

Australia has a bad habbit of protecting business interests first.

We're still the only ones selling that pesticide that's wiping out the world's honey bees.

Commenter

sarajane

Location

melbourne

Date and time

September 03, 2013, 8:29AM

Give Abbott points for this :

"I don't believe the polls. I want to make it absolutely crystal clear - I do not believe these polls," Mr Abbott said on Monday."

And still the Abbott cheer squad go along ...... with Murdoch ..... climate change is crap.

Or is it now climate change is daunting.

Climate Change is daunting.

Gay people are daunting.

Australia's economy is daunting.

The NBN is daunting.

All Abbott.

Commenter

J. Fraser

Location

Queensland

Date and time

September 03, 2013, 9:20AM

The Libs are in denialist mode again. I do love how the denialists never argue about the billions that Abbott put up to combat something they disagree even exists.

Commenter

meatatarian

Date and time

September 03, 2013, 9:31AM

Is anyone really surprised?

I think this admission is just another one of the staged managed distractions designed to keep the fact that Tony has not released the costings for his pie in the sky policies, hidden.

Abbott is an utter coward. He doesn't believe in Global Warming, he doesn't believe in paid parental leave, and he doesn't believe in leaving industrial relations as it is. His fiscal responsibility is laughable too. It's plain to see that rather than win people over on these policies, he's trying more so not to lose them because of it. Hardly the standing of a conviction politician?People question what Labor stand for, yet if the LNP let these policies slip through to the keeper, then you'd have to question what they stand for as well.

Commenter

meatatarian

Date and time

September 03, 2013, 9:50AM

@Cam, Cam why bother commenting on this blog, if you need your daily dose of B/S turn your radio on and listen to Alan Jones by the end of his show you'll be full of it.

Commenter

Bushy of Cressy

Location

Bushy

Date and time

September 03, 2013, 10:04AM

I believe Mr Abbott said it is unlikely that we won't meet our target. We are not track and I believe we were on track even when Mr. Howard was Prime Minister. I watched Mr Abbott on 7.30 last night and he most definitely did not say we wouldn't or that it was unlikely that we will meet our target.

Commenter

Roz

Location

Blue Mountains

Date and time

September 03, 2013, 7:03AM

Another head in the sand Liberal voter.The Direct Action Plan has been dismissed in every country except the US. The republicans love the plan because it puts huge dollars into corporate coffers with no guarantee of success.Why not use market forces? Because the Liberals (and the Republicans) have always been in favour of corporate welfare. In a free market, they might have to work for a living.