“With a January 30 BB10 launch date locked in, along with carrier and developer feedback now more clear, an upgrade of the existing subscriber base will be the most likely outcome,” Coupland wrote in a research note obtained by Forbes. “Even in the face of lower services ARPU, RIM looks materially undervalued.”

Coupland estimates that RIM could ship about 41.4 million devices in the February 2014 fiscal year, an increase from an estimated 30.2 million in fiscal 2013. He predicts the new operating system will help the company see profits of $0.85 per share in its 2014 fiscal year, well ahead of Wall Street’s consensus of $0.59.

“BB10 helping RIM win back material share from Android and iOS remains an open question,” he said. “Regardless of market share upside, it is our view that RIM is now in a good position to successfully stabilize its base, which will help repair its brand reputation and push shipments higher on a year-over-year basis off a low base.”

The analyst’s optimistic views are shared by Peter Misek of Jefferies & Co, who said last week that RIM’s stock could potentially be worth as much as $43 per share within the next 12 months. Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette disagrees, however, and notes that the company’s trajectory will not change regardless of the quality of BlackBerry 10.