Friday, 20 February 2015

Conservatives / Labour will they gain more than they lose?

So far this week I have done a series of simple calculations from one yougov poll to see in a very loose theoretical way how many voters could go from one party to another? I am fully aware that regional issues, incumbency and a myriad of other things can effect the results. But I love stats so doing it just for the craic.

Now so far we have had just how many voters are going to leave the Conservatives for UKIP and Labour for SNP & The Greens but how may will they gain from for instance each other and the LibDems and could this outweigh the loss of voters they are expected to have?

Labour gained 8,609,527 votes 11% of those are now don't knows
or won't votes but the ones that will vote 6% say they will now vote
Green. This figure is 459,750

10% say they will now vote UKIP. This figure is 766,248

45% of Scottish voters say they will now vote SNP. This figure is 424,048

Also a 3% to LibDems & Others that is 229,874 votersNow that is a total loss of 1,879,920But they are said to gain4% of Conservative voters = 373,286&30% of LibDem voters = 1,640,837Totals 2,014,123 a net gain of 134,203 votersCAVEATS

This is just an exercise of using polling numbers to see any potential figures. Still to put Wales into the dynamics and these are sweeping statements across the board. But all the same thought they would show an indication of the complexity of with such a multi party system these days. How it may shake down.

UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 SEATS WON

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