KK Members Blog

note: bringing this to the top of KK so all can see. original post was on 1/23/17 at 4:39pm.

Hey folks, I've been having a ton of scenarios on trades race through my head lately. One of those involves a hypothetical from our own chief(IwoCPO). He mentioned a possible Mrazek($4 mil/yr through 2018) trade bait scenario. So for the hell of it I explored that a bit reading some things here and there. Lets see who needs a goaltender. I keep being led back to 2 teams which are Buffalo and Winnipeg. Usually teams hate trading inside their own division because it can sometimes over inflate prices.

Lets start with Buffalo. Mrazek to Buffalo you say? Why? Well, their goaltending is not exactly stellar and they would like to climb out of the basement. They also have to room for the expense Mrazek would carry. Would we want anything back in return? Picks? D man(men)? Food for thought. Robin Lehner is 11-12-0-5 and has a decent SV% .921 and GAA% at 2.52. Anders Nilsson is comparable to Lehner. So what would we take back if we even want anyone? How about a D man, lets see what we have. Ristolainen is their top D man. So i guess the answer is no hehe. We cant afford him and they wont get rid of him. Signed for the long haul.

Ok, next up is Winnipeg. The goalies are Hellebuyck and Pavelec. Pavelec returning to the NHL ranks going 2-0 so far. Hellebuyck has been playing ok I guess with a 16-13-0-1 record. Not awesome, not god awful. Mrazek's record doesnt really reflect in a good light either at 10-11-0-5. But who do you want going into a playoff run? Pavelec good enough to make a run for the playoffs? If not we have your goalie.

Who do we take back? How about Trouba and Hellebuyck? Now before you go asking why do we want Hellebuyck, the answer is this: hes just a part of the package. Do with him what you will. Jimmy goes to Vegas at the entry draft anyways right? lol RIGHT? Hellebuyck costs $667,500 and is a RFA anyways. So potential parlay right there.

Just some things ive been pondering. And again this is all speculation based on my own thoughts. This would only work if you agreed to the notion we were keeping Coreau as our #1 going forward, Jimmy Tiberius going to Vegas and Mrazek traded(in a package, remember Winnipeggi has $12million to play). Hellebuyck could be kept as a backup or dealt away in some manner. Either way we got our D man we sought after earlier on.

So do you have any ideas on what teams may need a goaltender who is on the bubble? Looking to get into the dance? Share up your scenarios, lets have a friendly chat and go with it. Thanks for reading! Game On!

Comments

Posted by
NIVO
from underpants gnome village on 01/23/17 at 04:52 PM ET

Good post! More of these please.

For me trading Mrazek is risky because of his potential. Coreau is ok but isn’t he kind of a one shot not too bad and not too good goalie? I’d say we’re in full on rebuild mode if he’s our starter. ( maybe we should be?)

But if we had to trade Mrazek for a top D I’d go Trouba all the way at any cost. Heck give them Nyquist too while he has a little value. Throw in a 1st rounder too because we’ve wasted picks on worse players.

Posted by
bigdee89
from The Great White North Eh? on 01/23/17 at 05:43 PM ET

we’d be selling low on mrazek. these scenarios are for too optimistic.

Posted by
bigdee89
from The Great White North Eh? on 01/23/17 at 06:33 PM ET

true on low balling Mrazek. But as it is, shouldnt we be dumping all the salary we can in rebuild mode? Should it go that way anyways. I was looking at it from this point of view: Howard we get back $5mil+, Mrazek $4 mil. Coreau being a rookie/RFA keeps cost down for pennies for a few years. Even if you kept Hellebuyck(hes under $700k now and a RFA after this year) goaltending costs are minimal. Rebuild that D!

Posted by
NIVO
from underpants gnome village on 01/23/17 at 06:36 PM ET

if we’re moving mrazek we do want to ID landing spots. WIN and DAL make the most sense to me. i’d be asking for young D or C, and offering to retain say $1-$1.5M of his $4m deal for the next two years.

that salary situation is fine, because the wings are probably not going to need to worry about being competitive (to me this is a low bar—win ONE playoff round—let’s start small) for this and next season, minimum.

so, green and vanek also have to be in play, and since smith will be UFA, we can talk about him, too. maybe this isn’t just one deal, obviously.

so i said it, and it’s obvious: winners in this league have competent goaltending, a strong wing or three, 2 near elite C, 1 high end D, and if we’re dreaming, one elite D. doesn’t that sound a lot like our 2008 team? of course it does.

...so, nuts and bolts. this isn’t about any one trade, i guess, but philosophy. we saw EDM stockpile good-ok young talent for 5-plus years and still suck until they got basically a modern gretz. we’ve seen DAL amass a deadly forward corps, ignore goaltending, and let a serviceable D like goligoski go to ARI of all places (were the wings in on goligosky last summer, nobody’s ever said his name in MSM that i’ve seen).

we failed to offer sheet trouba. we failed to offer sheet lindholm. it’s an old boys’ network where i think GMs know if they do offer sheets they’re driving up player prices, and they think half the league won’t deal with them. that’s stupid when your job is to ice the most competitive team possible, and a deal can always be made.

the priority is to with be a top 8 team or a bottom 3 team. max out your cap while you’re going for it or in the mix, don’t be afraid to hoard space and futures when you know you won’t be competitive. that’s what’s so maddening about our management—they spend on dumb deals where it’s not so much the player as the circumstances. it does no good to finish 18th and pick 12th…

ott, miller, helm, LGD, abby…howard, now mrazek. ericsson and Z. all signed to deals that for whatever reason hurt the team. most are even useful players, just not this year with this team as made up. even though 14-21-15 are having bad years and maybe aren’t as great as we all thought, they’re in the mid-career deal and are still cheap (tats is UFA).

so, we have a logjam of shit deals that will make a retool or rebuild very tough. it’s hard to think any one transaction will help, and you have to think about vegas and expansion.

easy target in DAL is this kid lindell. young, has size, seems mobile. dallas is in a dubious playoff position and probably won’t make it, or i’d say mrazek and smith straight up so they can try for the Cup this year. since that won’t work, and they don’t need forwards, it’s mrazek and a guy like marchenko. i’d throw in our 2018 3rd for their 2018 4th or something, whatever. i still think that might not get it done, but we need to unload multiple fringe assets for one or two winners. that’s so tough these days

shat is good but too old for my plans or what we’d have to give. we need to plan for the 2019 to 2022 cup, not before. shat therefore makes no sense given his likely salary and what it’d take if we (god forbid) traded for him.

agreed, thats why i listed D men back that are almost ALL under 26 if im not mistaken. Now, if the other team is willing to move them…......

Posted by
NIVO
from underpants gnome village on 01/23/17 at 07:16 PM ET

on to WIN. i think players not so secretly don’t want to be there. it’s podunk. we should’ve been more aggressive trying to get trouba, but i suspect management and scouting weren’t really even that high on him, and maybe even rightly so. so, i’d still have interest but be less inclined to give away the farm. that they just locked him up suggests they’re not looking to move him unless the offer is massive, so while they need mrazek i’m not sure what they can offer.

i do think you could sell WIN on the concept that they’re a piece or two away from having an open window for a deep run, and i think a deal could be made.

last point is we’re all fans. we speculate and come up with wild scenarios without the benefit of being behind the scenes. i’ll bet at least 50 guys have been traded by drunk GMs in a hotel bar since 1975, for example, which is why you need nerves of steel AND tolerance (jk). i know the data i’d want at my fingertips about every team, player and prospect around the league, and it’s not rocket science. it’s an exploitable market you just have to figure out how to beat.

The Red Wings desperately need a top tier defense man if for the only reason to slot the other defense men like DDK into their proper slot(s). Not sure if a trade can obtain that defense man without giving up way too much. Unless Ken Holland can pull off a steal, the draft may be the only answer. It would be long and painful process but it seems that’s the only answer currently.

He mentioned a possible Mrazek($4 mil/yr through 2018) trade bait scenario. So for the hell of it I explored that a bit reading some things here and there. Lets see who needs a goaltender.

HE?? is an Fing idiot. Coreau has 11 or so games in the NHL, wow! His stats mean squat over such a such a small sample period. Don’t get me wrong Coreau might be the Goalie afyer 6/80 Game with playoffs (which might not happen for awhile. His save % was around ..900 , GAA near 3. The point is Mrazek’s career stats are pretty good/better and he is still young for an NHL goalie.

Essentially Mrazek is replaced by Hellebuyck, but with Trouba in, who goes out from the numerous d-men or forwards that we have. I don’t see Howard being taken by Vegas as there will probably be other options for them in net. Consider which teams or GMs have a trading history with Ken Holland plus which have a need in goal and go from there. I can see Trouba coming to Detroit but not in the scenario above.

Tatar/Nyquist, Mrazek and 2nd round pick for Shattenkirk - I’m not worried about him being 27. Contigent upon negotiating terms for contract extension. Blues are having some goaltending issues and would probably like a bit of insurance heading into playoffs.

There are other players who could be sent out if the Blues or another team prefers them. The goal has to be to upgrade the NHL level defense, stockpile draft picks, or high level defensive prospects.

Unless you are proposing to keep Howard…. why in the world are we trading for shattenkirk when we have no goaltender! That is also a lot for Shattenkirk.

I don’t get the trade Mrazek idea…. I am not one of the “he’s got elite potential” guys, but he could be above average, so why are we trading him?

There is two directions we could go here…. one, we continue to push for the playoffs every year while so called retooling/rebuilding on the fly. Obviously debatable if it’s ever going to pan out, but in that case, MAYBE you trade Mrazek, keep Howard and hope Coreau is the next guy….but that is hope. So unless you are getting a young asset…. like if you want to trade Mrazek for Lindholm or Trouba or whatever, then sure….. we can talk…but not for Shattenkirk.

Other direction is we finally start to rebuild with more intent, in which case you need a goalie to stabalize for the young players or you end up like Edmonton and Buffalo who have great young pieces but no goalie. (though Edmonton finally has a decent one).