Where I try to answer the essential questions about Hemsky’s value and suggest what a sane offer to him might look like . . .

Is Ales Hemsky worth trading for?If the asking price is just a low first-round pick and a prospect, definitely, especially if you are a GM whose job is on the line this spring.

Low first-round draft picks more often than not turn into zilch players rather than into good NHL players.

Hemsky has had proven success in the regular season and in the playoffs. He’s also been looking much more like his old and better self in recent weeks.

He’s worth at least that kind of price, especially if you’re thinking you might want to sign this player.

My own take is that unless the Oilers get a solid, real, actual NHL player in return for Hemsky, they should not deal him at the deadline, but should keep evaluating him for the remainder of the season, then make a final decision before the NHL draft.

Come on! Hemsky worth that much? He has just five goals in 46 games, right?His official stats are deceiving.

But insiders are complaining about his lack of work ethic. Many Oilers fans want him gonzo. And you’re just some fanboy who watches the games at home on his couch? Don’t believe me if you don’t want to. You’re entitled to your opinion. But I am about to back up my own opinion in this post.

Should the Oilers make a good offer to -re-sign him, rather than trade him? As more time goes by, and Hemsky at last seems to be regaining his form, I’m increasingly thinking the Oilers should make such a solid offer, and the sooner, the better, before his price goes up.

What numbers have been thrown out there by Oilogosphere bloggers? Many fans, and a few bloggers, would be happy to see the Oilers be rid of Hemsky. Others argue this would be a terrible mistake. They say Hemsky is a proven scorer who can get it done against tough competition and is well on his way to recovery from injury. They claim he has been plagued with bad luck this year as much as anything else.

That’s certainly a positive spin on Hemsky’s poor season and worse run of injuries. Who says that?Tyler Dellow of MC79 has suggested that $5-6 million per year in a four or five year deal is the way to go.The Cult’s Jonathan Willis has offered up Martin Havlat as a comparable. After putting up 77 points in a full season, Havlat earned a long-term, $5 million per year deal in July 2009.

What kind of wingers usually get $5 million-plus per year? Only the elite of the elite. Not just a top-line winger, but the best top-line winger on a team, only the top 25 wingers in the entire league, from Alex Ovechkin and Rick Nash at the top end to Brian Rolston and Brian Gionta at the $5.0 million per year end.

Well, if Hemsky doesn’t perform, and Oilers owner Daryl Katz is willing to bury him in the minors, isn’t it OK to give him this cash?That would help. The cap concerns would be somewhat alleviated.

It’s great if Katz is indeed willing to help the team by paying big money to an under-performing vet in the minors. That way if Hemsky remains a single digit scorer, he can be sent to Oklahoma City and his big ticket won’t count against the Oilers cap. Other teams have done this, such as the New York Rangers with Wade Redden.

But will Hemsky agree to go to Oklahoma City? If Hemsky wants a good contract in Edmonton over the longer term, say four years, the Oilers should insist that there not be a no-movement clause in the deal’s final two years.

But are Katz and Hemsky willing to go this route? Those are key questions for Oilers management. Katz was certainly willing to bury Sheldon Souray and his contract.

For that kind of money, $5-$6 million per year, aren’t their cap concerns to think about with the Oilers?Yes. The Oilers have a number of players who will require much larger pay days in the next few years, including Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Sam Gagner, Ladi Smid, Jeff Petry and possibly Magnus Paajarvi and a few others.

How likely is it that the Oilers can pay Hemsky more than $5 million per year and squeeze all those players under the cap? Seems like a stretch to me.

Is Hemsky going to get much power play time in coming years? Maybe. Hemsky is down about a minute per game in terms of his power play time on ice this year, with six other forwards getting more time per game.

But hasn’t Hemsky always been the Oilers top power play guy? Things change. Hemsky was a good power play specialist until last season,when his scoring fell off dramatically. He’s bounced back this year a bit. But if Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall don’t get hurt, it’s hard to see how Hemsky is ever again on the Oilers’ first unit.

Since the Oilers need a tough guy in front of the net, and that’s not Hemsky, and a blueline power play quarterback, and that’s not Hemsky, he seems destined for second unit action.

But can’t he earn his keep with stellar even strength play? He can be a valuable player, yes, but the biggest bucks usually go to those who put up mega-points on the power play.

Got any proof? Of the players who earn more than $5 million per year, it’s safe to say that all of them were given that money with the expectation they would be top-unit power play scorers. A few of them have fallen off that track, namely Brian Gionta, Brian Rolston and Martin Havlat.

What about the next rung, the $4 million to $5 million per year guys? More players in this group aren’t on the top power play unit, guys like Brooks Laich, Milan Lucic, Scott Hartnell, Brandon Dubinsky, David Booth, Dustin Penner, Ville Leino, Jason Blake.

At his peak, what kind of scorer was he?If Hemsky were putting up close to a point a game against tough competition — and that’s what he did until this season — he would be a $5 million-plus per year winger. He used to be in that Havlat class.

What’s all this about ‘tough competition’?The mark of a good NHLer is to succeed against tough competition and Hemsky did that for years. He’s again playing the toughest competition of any Oilers winger this year, though Hall and Eberle aren’t far behind.

Is he better than his official stats? Yes, and this is where the debate gets interesting. Until recently, Hemsky has had terrible luck around the net this year. He’s a career 11.4 per cent shooter. This year’s he shooting 6.3 per cent. Double that percentage to his normal standard and he’s at 10 goals this year.

MC79’s Dellow argues the whole team has had bad luck when Hemsky’s been on the ice at even strength, right?And on this point Dellow is perfectly correct. As a team the Oilers have shot an unusually low 6.5 per cent when Hemsky’s been on the ice at even strength.

Last year the team shot 12 per cent when he was out there, the year before 11.8 per cent, and 8.5 per cent the year before that. Maybe Hemsky got some good luck for two years running, but it looks like bad luck this year.

But he’s also stunk, right? “Stunk ” is way too strong. But he hasn’t been as strong a player this year, yes. He’s also been coming back from major injury.

What do his scoring chance numbers tell us?Same story, some good luck last year, bad luck this year.

Last year, Hemsky contributed to 170 scoring chances at even strength, with 36 ending up as goals, for a 21.2 per cent conversion rate.

This year, he’s contributed to 153 scoring chances, with just 19 ending up as goals, a 12.4 per cent conversion rate. If Hemsky had the same conversion rate as last year, he’d have about 10 more even strength points right now.

But he says he’s feeling good now? He’s certainly demonstrated more jump on the attack in recent games, and he’s had more success, too. He’s got nine points in his last 11 games, plus his underlying scoring chance numbers are at long last also picking up. His luck is improving at the same time as he’s playing better.

Does he compete hard? He’s looked lazy in his checking now and then, but that’s also a team-wide issue, likely one that comes with losing so much and, with Hemsky, maybe being injured so much. Why kill yourself in the useless seconds of a game where you’re already getting thumped? That said, great hockey players and teams do kill themselves, so to speak, to win.

Are his injury problems behind him? I don’t know. No one can. But if you look at the history of NHL players who have suffered both major injuries and major drops in performance, a handful of them have returned to their old, brilliant selves.

And the other guys who get majorly banged up? A bigger handful of players have suffered big injuries and never really bounced back, either coming back as lesser players or having their careers cut short.

Is he a good character player?Lots of grumbling about him being the first player off the ice after practice. But this is the same guy who went into the corners with Robyn Regehr fearlessly for years and years and years. That reveals character as well.

Don’t the biggest bucks also go to those with the most bargaining power? You see, Tomas Fleischmann was an Unrestricted Free Agent last summer. He never scored more than 51 points in an entire season. He was coming off a season where he had just 12 goals and 31 points in 45 games. If he can get $4.5 million a year, Hemsky certainly can?Fleischmann’s contract? I don’t like it one bit. But, yes, it’s true that on the open market a team in need of a first-line, power play-leading winger might have more need for Hemsky than the Oilers do, and might offer him the sun, the moon and all the stars. But is it wise for Steve Tambellini to be that GM? Not with Eberle and Hall on the team, not with Magnus Paajarvi, Linus Omark and Teemu Hartikainen in the wings.

So what should the Oilers do?Given the information to date, I’d suggest in the range of $5.2 million for a one-year deal, $4.8 million for a two-year deal, $4.5 million for a three-year deal, $4.1 million for a four-year deal, $3.6 million for a five-year deal, with both parties moving forward without a no-movement clause.

Haven’t you changed your mind on this a few times?Yes, I have to some extent. It’s a complex issue. As new issues have been brought to my attention, and as Hemsky has played more games, I’ve changed my take somewhat, though my essential opinion has always been the same, that if Hemsky is healthy, he’s worth the risk, so long as he’s not asking too much given his changing role on the team.

Aren’t you a bit obsessed with this whole thing? If you’ve read this far in the ost, so are you.

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