Today is a triumph of media management for Miliband. He wanted the headline “Labour favours EU referendum” and managed (mostly) to get the opposite. Even the Daily Mirror (pictured), which presumably had the positive briefing, used a sub-headline that contradicted the main one.

The headline on the front of the Financial Times, which carried Miliband’s article (limited access), was: “Miliband rules out early EU poll”.

Which is what happens when you try to tell a business audience, which doesn’t like uncertainty, that there won’t be a referendum under a Labour government, while trying to tell a mass audience that you are in favour of their having a say (in principle).

Miliband’s people tell us that what is new about his article and speech today is that he has confirmed that the referendum, which Labour wants if there is a further transfer of powers to Brussels, would be an in-out choice rather than simply to approve or reject the transfer. This is a confirmation of what we thought was Miliband’s position anyway.

I thought Miliband would stick to this as long as Labour was ahead in the opinion polls – and today’s ICM poll putting the lead at three points hints, although it’s only a one-point change, that this might not be for much longer.

But I am not so sure now, because something else is happening in the polls, which is that public opinion is moving back in favour of Britain’s EU membership. The YouGov tracker chart shows that this week those who say they would vote to stay in the EU overtook those who say they would vote to leave (41 to 39 per cent). And that is even before people are asked how they would vote after a hypothetical renegotiation after which David Cameron recommended an “in” vote (52 to 27 per cent). This probably reflects the shortage of “eurozone in crisis” headlines more than anything else.

I suspect that Miliband has decided to set his face against a referendum and stick with that come what may, not least because it might help to secure some big business support.

That means that there will be a clear choice at the election: the Conservatives offering to use the leverage of a referendum to renegotiate EU terms; versus Labour’s talking about reform but denying people a say. I suspect (as I said last year) that Miliband wanted the summary of his position to be “in favour of a referendum in principle but at the right time”. But against the promise of a referendum with a date, that was never going to work.

The basic theme of J. R.s June 2 piece was that, now that Cameron had promised a referendum, Ed was bound to do so as well. In other words, Ed would cave in to short-term electoral exigencies. Well, it turns out that was wrong. Not for the first and I suspect not for the last time either, J. R. has underestimated Ed.

greggf

Well that was certainly Nigel Farage’s position newfriend.

As for JR – he says different above.
Ed seems to speak differently out of each corner of his mouth at the same time depending on who he is addressing, so he’s easy to underestimate.

reformist lickspittle

Ed’s position is actually very simple and easy to understand.

It is that there will ONLY be a referendum if there is a good reason to have one. In other words, not an invented and artificial pretext created simply as a short term (and, even then, not terribly successful) exercise in party management.

John seems terribly impressed that Dave has “promised” a referendum. The only problem is – the anti-EU part of the electorate don’t believe him, and the pro-EU/not bothered part have no idea what the referendum will actually be about and thus see no point to it apart from cynical politicking.

Yea verily, another triumph for Cameron. A long list of them now

Ciaran Goggins

Miliband may have lost the election today. I was e-mailed by Cameron’s office today. I support an EU exit referendum but I am pressing for an inquiry into police corruption. That said “the backlash begins”. The sign at my local health centre asking “Do you wish to speak English or Polish?” has been torn down. Getting the message Pan Janosz?

Pacificweather

Is Ed signalling that he is ready for a Labour and LibDem coalition?

reformist lickspittle

Not really.

peter prince

Well he has caved into short term electoral wants on many an issue such as gas prices and a 50p tax rate and I would say to an extent this is just another example of that, as just as the desire to stay in the EU has increased and people are being put off by the uncertainty of a referendum on the subject Ed has bowed yet again to electoral wants its just the fact those wants have changed which has maybe confused you a little. I’m sure in the run up to the election Ed will continue his ‘popular’ politics and look consistently at the short run electoral success and not about what’s good for the UK in the long term.