Friday, June 20, 2008

Cowen is out with a very positive call on Energy Conversion Devices (NASDAQ:ENER) saying they see 50%+ upside potential in the ENER share price vs. the market in 12 months and reiterate their Outperform rating.

Raising F09/10E EPS To $1.95/$3.70, Vs. Prior $1.85/$3.50. Given the apparent strong demand for the offering and recent stock performance, firm's model assumes the shoe. As it will likely take some time to deploy proceeds for the next expansion, interest on higher cash balances looks accretive in F09.

Next Expansion Could Boost Projected Revenue. Cowen has modeled $500MM in additional capex for F09/10, assuming a further 300MW facility is added in F10, with revenue beginning in Q1:11. However, there may be sufficient lead time to drive incremental revenue in H2:10. The additional capital should strengthen ENER's hand in negotiations for government investment incentives. As they expect NOLs to be extinguished by F11, a tax-advantaged location in Asia may be most attractive.

Plenty Of Triggers To Lift The Shares. Sales agreements are in place for 94% of expected 2009production and 48% of 2010, with contracts totaling 600MW through 2013, an increase of about 200MW since the Q3 call. Firm expects more new contracts, including deals signed at Intersolar, to add to backlog and visibility on forward ASPs. This, along with details of the next factory, margin expansion, and likely EPS upside, should support 50% upside vs. the market in the next 12 months.

Notablecalls: This should propel the shares towards the $80 level today.