Spring forecast: floods in Midwest, very dry in Calif.

Mar. 21, 2014
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A property owner shores up a dike to ensure protection against the rising of Rice Lake on March 19, 2014, in Minot, N.D. Property owners around Rice Lake are once again battling floods. / Jill Schramm, AP

by Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

by Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

Minor to moderate floods are possible this spring, the worst likely in the northern Plains and Great Lakes states, federal forecasters predict.

Rivers in half the continental USA are at some risk of flooding:

"This year's spring flood potential is widespread and includes rivers in highly populated areas, putting millions of Americans at risk," says Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service. "Although widespread major river flooding is not expected, an abrupt warming or heavy rainfall event could lead to isolated major flooding."

Floods kill about 100 Americans each year and are the nation's top cause of weather-related deaths.

In the northern Plains, the Weather Service predicts a risk of "moderate" flooding along the Red River of the North between eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota and along the Souris River south of Minot, N.D. River ice, snowpack and significant frozen ground are contributing factors.

There is also a risk of moderate flooding in western South Dakota.

Around the Great Lakes, moderate flooding is possible in parts of southern Wisconsin, southern Michigan and Illinois, Indiana and Iowa.

Minor floods could threaten parts of the Southeast, New England, the Ohio Valley and the northern Rockies this spring.

On the other end of the scale, drought is forecast to continue and intensify in California, Nevada, most of interior Oregon and Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, southeast Colorado, western Oklahoma, and most of west Texas. This is because of below-average rain or snow this winter and the start of the typical dry season in April.

Drought now encompasses 99.8% of California, according to this week's U.S. Drought Monitor, a federal website that tracks drought. This is the highest percentage since at least 2000, when the monitor launched.

If the drought continues as expected, "it will likely result in an active wildfire season, continued stress on crops and livestock due to low water levels, and an expansion of water conservation measures," the Weather Service predicts.

Below-average rain is forecast throughout the spring along the West Coast. This includes all of California, western Washington and Oregon, along with parts of Arizona and Nevada.

Unusually cold temperatures are likely for winter-weary residents of the northern Plains, upper Midwest and Great Lakes states. Unusual warmth is likely across most of the West and the USA's southern tier.