American politics

THE POLITICO engages in a bit of what the Maoists used to call "self-criticism" over journalists' haste to declare Hillary Clinton dead in New Hampshire, and offers up this auto-zinger:

If journalists were candidates, there would be insurmountable pressure for us to leave the race. If the court of public opinion were a real court, the best a defense lawyer could do is plea bargain out of a charge that reporters are frauds in exchange for a signed confession that reporters are fools.

Bill Richardson arguably had the most impressive résumé of any of the Democratic candidates for the presidency, but lacking either Hillary Clinton's campaign machine or the mesmeric powers Barack Obama gained after bathing in the light of a mysterious meteoroid, Mr Richardson will announce he is hanging up his hat Thursday, according to sources close to the campaign.

AS predicted, some are blaming the failure of pollsters to call New Hampshire's Democratic primary correctly on the "Bradley Effect": the tendency of white voters to claim they'll vote for a minority when pollster's ask, but then flip the switch for the white candidate in the privacy of the voting booth. Matthew Yglesias has a fairly decisive response to such speculation, which is that the polls were actually quite accurate when it came to judging how many people would vote for Barack Obama.

AT first I thought Hillary Clinton had made a small mistake when she mentioned hillaryclinton.com in her speech Tuesday night. Whenever a candidate mentions his or her website, it cheapens the oratory a bit. And the last thing Mrs Clinton should have done after her surprise victory—at least partially the result of her expressions of seemingly genuine emotion, the polls be damned—was adopt the tone of an over-disciplined saleswoman. As it was, her speech was less engaging than Barack Obama’s performance.

But Terry McAuliffe, the campaign’s chairman, couldn’t be happier about Hillary’s plug. In a conference call that ended a few minutes ago, an audibly exuberant Mr McAuliffe announced that the website has taken in a tad over $1m since midnight last night—about the time of Mrs Clinton’s acceptance speech. Apparently the site has been getting as many as 500 hits a minute since her victory. Mr McAuliffe also advertised the campaign’s fundraising success in the last quarter, when it took in $24m for the primary race.

Among the very biggest dangers of Mrs Clinton losing New Hampshire after her drubbing in Iowa was that her donors would desert her. Ever since her last Senate campaign, her organisation has pioneered ways of creatively throwing its money around, from ordering catered sandwiches for Iowa caucus-goers (which the campaign wasn’t allowed to bring in, anyway), to flying her around the state in a helicopter as she visited all 99 of its counties. (She also might need a little cash for lots of commercials in the expensive media markets to vote on Feb. 5th, so-called Tsunami Tuesday.) It would have been a shame to miss out on more such antics. At least for now, it appears we won’t have to.

JAMIE KIRCHICK of the New Republic has made anti-war Republican Ron Paul his own personal white whale for much of the past year. And while the quixotic congressman's many unorthodox views might seem to leave an antagonist with an almost paralyzing surfeit of fronts on which to attack, Mr Kirchick has been determined to land his harpoon in the blubber of bigotry.

In July, Mr Kirchick argued that Mr Paul's tepid endorsement of the military's "Don't Ask Don't Tell" policy and his reluctance to support gay marriage were a "cop-out", and perhaps even "cynically homophobic".

IT IS interesting to note how many people (well, at least journalists) in Mitt Romney's home state of Massachusetts are gloating over his second-place finish here in neighbouring New Hampshire yesterday. Wasn't being a former governor from right next door supposed to work to his advantage? Just a couple of weeks ago many pundits thought New Hampshire was firmly in his hip pocket.

Pushing past their disappointment over last night's result, Mr Romney's campaign says he is looking ahead to Michigan, which votes on January 15th. But it is hard to miss the slightly bad taste lingering here in New England this morning.

"HE shook my hand, and I'm pretty excited about that." A young supporter of Barack Obama, leaving a post-election party tonight, is holding up a close-up photo she took of him on her mobile phone. Has she noticed that her man lost to Hillary Clinton? "I'll deal with it," she says. "He's allowed to lose once as long as he wins all the others." OK. But then come the words that will send chills through the Obama campaign team: "He's so inspirational, it almost doesn't matter." Ouch. Perhaps someone should explain the rules of politics to this young lady.

POLLS in New Hampshire close in mere minutes. We'll watch the bobbleheads watch the numbers roll in. Talk amongst yourselves in the comments should our eagle eyes miss a trick. By the way, you have three correspondents in this post—The Economist in DC in red, Economist.com in DC in black and The Economist in Austin in green.

WHAT a comeback. John McCain, the old man written off for dead a few months ago, grabbed victory in New Hampshire tonight. Mitt Romney, a rich Republican who far outspent Mr McCain, placed second and Mike Huckabee, the victor in Iowa grabbed third. That despite the significantly smaller number of conservative Christians (the core of his Iowa support) in New Hampshire.

As of this posting (9pm local time), the Democratic race is too close to call. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are running neck and neck. The scuttlebutt among journalists is that Mr Obama is having dinner with his family at the moment.

HOW do voters actually decide which lever to pull in the primaries. We travelled to New Hampshire this week to find out.

We spoke with Jon Greenberg, a political reporter for New Hampshire Public Radio and the force behind primaryplace.org. We also talked with two undecided independent voters: John Atsalis, a college student, and Linda Allen, a freelance writer.

We learned that New Hampshire voters pick their candidates based on a sometimes nebulous set of criteria—a firm handshake is often as important as first-rate policies. But even with their extraordinary access to the candidates, some New Hampshire voters still have trouble making up their minds.

THE Common Man restaurant in Concord, New Hampshire's capital city, oozes Yankee character. There is an open fireplace with copper pots on the mantle, high ceilings, wooden beams, quilts and knick-knacks on the walls. In truly democratic spirit, nothing on the menu costs more than $10 (a hearty New England pot roast dinner sells for $9.99).

In this presidential primary season, though, The Common Man is best known as a political mecca for candidates seeking support from the good people of New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton held a breakfast gathering here on Monday.

"IF I have to follow him to the gates of hell, I will get Osama bin Laden and bring him to justice—and I want to assure you, justice will be swift." John McCain, the craggy old man of this presidential campaign, sounds more believable than most of his rivals when he dishes out the sort of tough lines he was serving to supporters at a campaign stop in Portsmouth.

The Frank Jones Centre, a convention hall a few miles down the road from a naval station in this city on the New Hampshire coast, was decked out with red, white and blue balloons and a giant American flag.

THE polls are open in New Hampshire. Anyone wondering if Hillary Clinton has gone soft—the media jumped all over her for getting a bit misty-eyed on the trail yesterday—should note that her campaign sent out an email at 10:16pm last night notifying the traveling press corps that they should rendezvous at 4:45am for a full day of events. As of this posting (about 9am local time) she has already hit polling stations in Manchester and Nashua, and is due shortly in Derry. So there.

1: something that stands first in rank, importance, or value : fundamental —usually used in plural

5: a: caucus; b: an election in which qualified voters nominate or express a preference for a particular candidate or group of candidates for political office, choose party officials, or select delegates for a party convention

Recent usage:

"Candidates Campaign Nonstop Before Primary"—Headline on NPR.org, January 7th.

"A FOX News Poll asked New Hampshire Democratic primary voters for their opinions on the most important candidate qualities. The ability to bring about "change" was No. 1 — at 39 percent. That far outpaced "the right experience."—FOXNews.com, January 7th

"Is this New Hampshire's last hurrah as first primary?"—Headline on MarketWatch.com, December 7th

Background:

If the political futures markets know anything, Barack Obama is highly likely to become the Democratic nominee in the 2008 presidential election. Options that pay off at $1 each if Mr Obama wins the nomination are trading at 70 cents on Intrade. Hillary Clinton's options are around 25 cents, and they've been falling for days. In November, those prices were essentially reversed. You can bet that if Mr Obama wins Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, Ms Clinton's shares will fall even further. And that seems very to likely happen, according to recent polls that show Mr Obama with huge leads.

What happened to Ms Clinton's once-"inevitable" march to the Presidency? Mr Obama's victory in the Iowa caucus was unquestionably a huge boost for his campaign. By proving he could not just win, but win big, Mr Obama did severe damage to Ms Clinton's argument that she was the most "electable" Democrat. But Mr Obama didn't just destroy Ms Clinton's argument of "electability and experience". He also presented an alternative narrative that seems to be propelling him towards the nomination: He presented himself as the candidate of change. And in an election where voters overwhelmingly cite "the ability to bring about change" as the most important characteristic of a presidential candidate, Ms Clinton, who voters remember from the 1990s, has been hard-pressed to prove she represents a departure from politics as usual.