Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday Live Blog: Early Thoughts (5:45pm-7:00pm)

5:45pm:

There will be no entrance polls in caucus states tonight (NYT). That means it will be awfully late when we find out what happens in states like North Dakota and Idaho. We've had essentially no polling in those states, so we really don't what will happen there.

CNN has started telling us a bit about the exit polls. Evidently only 49% of those voting for McCain labeled themselves conservative (the numbers were much higher for Huckabee and Romney).

Questions I'm wondering about:

What does "victory" look like tonight? Given how close this seems to be on the Democratic side, can Obama or Clinton claim that they won if they come out with more than a 100 delegate lead (not including pledged delegates)?

Related to the above, if we don't know who won or lost, when do the candidates come out to address supporters? Do they come out after they win their home states? Wait for someone to call Calilfornia?

How much time will the networks spend obsessing over who wins and loses states like Missouri when the margin of victory in IL and NY is at least as important? (See the earlier post on this point).

Would McCain be more worried if only Huckabee leaves the race or if only Romney leaves the race?

This is the closest thing we've ever had to a national primary...what will we think of it when it is over? Big success? Big failure?

6:00pm:My home state of Georgia is the first to close its polls one hour from now. Here is the site where you'll be able to track those returns as they come in.

6:20pm:Is this a hint that things will go well for Obama? MSNBC releases more from the exit polls. Here is a potentially crucial nugget: 53% chose change at the most imporant candidate quality, 22% selected experience, 14% selected cares about people like me, and 9% selected electability. The high numbers for change seem good for Obama, which MSNBC confirms as they indicate that three-fourths of those selecting the change quality voted for Obama.

But the exit polls can't get to the earlier voters...how much will those help Clinton?

6:30pm:This is the first election for which Georgia has had its controversial photo identification requirement for voting. This may be causing long lines at the polls (story here).

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