Newspoll quarterly aggregates

The Australian has published aggregated breakdowns from the four Newspoll results since the election, suggesting Western Australia to be the outstanding performer in Labor’s recent polling renaissance.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregated federal polling featuring breakdowns by state, gender, age and city/non-city, for which GhostWhoVotes offers full tables. This amounts to a relatively small dataset from four post-election polls, with total samples ranging from a modest 554 in South Australia to 1352 in New South Wales. The first of the four polls was something of an outlier in having the Coalition leading 56-44 – comfortably their best result in any poll since the election – but the next three tracked the broader trend in having the Coalition two-party preferred vote progress from 53% to 52% to 48%. Labor looks to have made the biggest gains among its weakest cohorts, namely male and older voters.

The state numbers have been added to the BludgerTrack model, and the display on the sidebar revised accordingly. This has tended to moderate the distinctions between the state swings, with the exception of Western Australia where Newspoll records a thumping 8% two-party shift to Labor – a result complemented by today’s Newspoll state result, which you can read about in the post directly below. The Newspoll figures for New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia were very close to BludgerTrack’s, but Victoria and Queensland were substantially better for the Coalition. Their addition causes the Coalition’s seat projection to improve by one each in the latter two states, which pans out to a net gain of one after accounting for a Labor gain in New South Wales.

The WA result a shocker for the local Libs but I expect most of it is down to State politics.

The Senate re-vote will amount to a State-wide by-election, something the LNP should approach with trepidation. Voters can give the LNP a total hiding without upsetting the balance of power in the House of Reps and they most likely will.

At a local level, the LNP clearly just lied their way back into office. I think there is widespread shock with the budget cuts, the loss of the credit rating and the postponement of promised infrastructure spending. Voters will want to let Abbott know they won’t tolerate the same kind of games from him.

Like with everybody else, I don’t actually give a shit what Sean does for coin, or how much he earns. Whether he’s on Centrelink, a small business owner or the CEO of a fortune 500, I don’t give a shit. To each, their own.

However, he smugly spends his time here gloating about the big bucks he’s earning and how much he’s working (implying that makes him superior to everyone else.) So, it’s very hard to avoid being sceptical and point out his inconsistencies and bullshit claims.

I do confess, however, I went overboard last night and probably made the board uncomfortable for visitors. For that, I apologise. I will reel it back in.

We are currently in a wage bubble and with increasing unemployment it just proves that it is unsustainable.

There is no basis for this claim. In fact, the data show that as labour demand stagnates, earnings growth has also ticked down is just about matching the (recently below trend) growth in prices.

However, we have experienced a very prolonged real exchange rate appreciation – recently partly reversed – which has pushed incomes well above those of our trading partners. This is a real problem for exporters and import-competing industries. The causes of this lie mostly outside this economy, in the monetary policies of the US, EU and Japan.

The result is very feeble growth in the domestic economy. If Sean is finding his IT service business is not growing fast enough to allow him to compete for talented workers, he should ask how growth rates can be lifted in the economy as a whole and how he can improve his own firm’s productivity. And he should reflect on the decisions and leanings of the LNP, which will only retard growth rates and inhibit investment.

There comes a point where you have too much work to make anymore money… but to hire someone will cost you a significant amount.

I am at that point, hence my complaint about minimum wages.

This would only make sense if your hourly charge-out rate was close to the minimum wage, in which case, it’s hard to see how you can be making much of an income in the first place.

Rather than complaining about the modest wages available to low-skilled workers – who could not possibly work in IT and who you never employ – you should ask what you can do to attract and retain high-value workers who can improve your business.

Convince a bunch of bleeding heart lefties on an internet forum that he lacks imagination and then talk about his business struggles. They all then leap in with helpful suggestions coz they’re such nice people who like to help those in need .

Some people have forgotten the financial advantages that immigrants bring to Australia. Also, how many skilled workers amongst the boat refugees are we ignoring?

The number of young doctors trained in the UK or Ireland but now working in Australian A&E departments has soared by 69% from 285 in 2008 to 481 last year, the study shows.

Dr Cliff Mann, president of the College of Emergency Medicine, which represents A&E doctors, said the growing exodus of registrars represented "a colossal loss of talent by A&E units which cannot afford to lose them" at a time when demand from patients has reached unprecedented levels.

He said the trend was "an unacceptable waste of taxpayers' money, because each of these UK-trained registrars has cost about £610,000 over the five years of their medical degree and subsequent five years as a junior NHS doctor".

There are now so many registrars from the UK and Ireland in Australian emergency departments that they comprise almost one in four (23.1%) of the workforce there, according to the Australian College of Emergency Medicine.

I don’t think Morrison actually knows what he’s doing at the moment, but if he tries to send the Ambassador home he’ll cop everything but the kitchen sink, therefore he’ll break his own “rules” if he thinks it necessary, and that will be UNFAIR.

Increasing prices wont necessary make a business more profitable as higher prices will reduce the quantity demanded from customers and the level between the two will be determined by local market conditions.

Sean, you don’t make sense. Last night you said you were on a high hourly rate and only make $100k because you don’t work many hours (giving you time to reno the bathroom and post here).

Now you are saying you are flat out and have too much work!

Which is it?

If you have too much work, you are ideally place to take on labour. The thing with a successful business is having some one buy what you have to offer. It sounds like you are in that situation (at least what you have said today). You have to negotiate a cost with your client a charge out rate of say 2.5 times the salary you pay your employee. Problem solved and you are well on the way to retirement.

I would say the problem in your field is the low ‘barrier to entry’. Why would an employee work for you when they could go to your client and ask for the 2.5 times what they are getting from you and set up in competition to you.

Your problem has nothing to do with high minimum wage. If you paid what you want to pay an employee, they would walk.

Tisme has built an IT business “over many years”, yet he cannot afford staff on the minimum wage??? Forgive me, but BWAHAHAHAHAHA! Surely this is bullsheet?

I’ve been working in IT for 16 years. The first 3 years were running my own business, then I joined a company as IT Manager for a decade, before returning to running my own IT business due to a turn for the worse in my life partner’s health. I now work from home on a part time basis, in-between caring for my partner.

It’s not difficult for an IT business to make a good profit, assuming the business owner has the relevant expertise, is willing to work hard and has the ability to communicate effectively with customers. The last bit is the most important: if you arent a very good listener, your IT business will struggle to retain customers and your business will eventually fail.

I think it’s hilarious that someone encumbered by the cognitive dissonance displayed by Tisme is even able to use a computer, much less run an IT business and service the demanding customers IT professionals must accommodate. This gives us clues as to some of the sources of Tisme’s many prejudices and his bitter heart – he has to deal with customers who expect an IT service provider to know how to solve complex problems!

It’s no wonder he can’t afford employees, especially given the amount of time he wastes trolling Poll Bludger…

About this blog

William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.