Short hop?

Poll-induced panic is always a threat to a campaign. So before all the Democrats stick their heads in the oven over the Time and Newsweek polls, take a look at what Rasmussen’s robots are doing. Bush jumped to a four-point lead during the convention, but that’s down to 1.2% today, which if my arithmetic is right means that the latest day of polling (Rasmussen reports a three-day moving average) must have had Kerry back in the lead. Now that Rasmussen’s daily sample size is up to 1000, those one-day figures can be taken a little bit seriously.

No doubt the picture is grimmer now than it was a month ago: the Republicans did will at counterpunching during the Democratic convention, and we didn’t return the favor. But now is not the time to get discouraged or to start recriminating.