A taoiseach in trouble

The prime minister’s problems may prove terminal for the Lisbon treaty

BRIAN COWEN, who succeeded Bertie Ahern as Ireland's prime minister (taoiseach) in May, calls it the worst economic crisis in a century. It is certainly the worst of times to be in government. The economy will shrink this year and probably next, for the first time in 25 years. The Celtic Tiger decade of high growth and huge budget surpluses has ended in a spectacular bust. Tax revenues have collapsed: the budget deficit may hit 7% of GDP in 2009.

Such a rapid reversal has taken a toll on the prime minister's reputation, not least because (like Britain's Gordon Brown) he was formerly finance minister. He is struggling with three problems from a politically weak position. First is an economy in free fall, second a dramatic loss of support and third the vexed issue of Ireland's future in the European Union.

In June the Irish rejected the Lisbon treaty in a referendum. Yet 24 of the 27 EU members have ratified the treaty, and the Poles and Czechs (whose constitutional court has just cleared the text) are ready to do so. At next month's EU summit, Mr Cowen will report on his intentions. The French EU presidency wants an agreement that Lisbon should come into force by 2010, meaning that Ireland must hold a second referendum, probably next autumn. The carrots will be special declarations and derogations, plus a promise to keep one EU commissioner per country. To ease voters' fears on defence, the government could quit the European Defence Agency and opt out of a common defence policy.

When the Fianna Fail-led coalition that had been in power since 1997 was elected to a third term last year, its perceived economic competence was decisive. The government has now lost that reputation. Its poll ratings have dropped to the lowest in 25 years: only 18% are satisfied with the government's performance, and just 26% with Mr Cowen's. The decline owes much to a botched 2009 budget. Public anger at many spending cuts forced a reversal of some, at great cost to the government's credibility. The coalition still has a comfortable parliamentary majority, but it lost three supporters over the budget.

Against this background, how can Mr Cowen seriously hope to win a second referendum on Lisbon? A recent poll in the Irish Times offers mild encouragement. If Irish concerns on keeping their own commissioner, neutrality, abortion and tax are dealt with, a majority of 52.5% would vote yes. Yet that is still narrow; and initial leads for the yes camp in previous referendum campaigns on the EU have often vanished.

Mr Cowen may take more comfort from post-vote research pointing to public ignorance about the Lisbon treaty. One-third of voters believed that it included conscription into a European army and an end to Ireland's ban on abortion. Yet even if he dismisses such canards, it is hard to see Mr Cowen, who failed to sell Lisbon to voters when he and his government were popular, succeeding next autumn. He will find it difficult to stop a vote turning into a referendum on his government. Indeed, some argue that the Irish will say yes only if they believe that a second no would lead to their country's ejection from the EU—and that is itself a canard.