Prior to the 2010 season, many of us thought that the starting rotation might one of the Kansas City Royals’ strengths. With the reigning Cy Young Award winner heading the staff and a healthy Gil Meche returning, it seemed that the Royals would have a one-two punch on par with anyone in the division.

Behind Greinke and Meche, there was a very reasonable chance that Luke Hochevar would take the next step and become a reliable number three starter while Brian Bannister was likely to remain a serviceable number four starter. Plus, maybe this was the year that it all came together for Kyle Davies. Even if Davies continued as he had been, he was still just the number five starter, anyway.

Well so much for that…

At our annual Royals Authority winter meetings in Bora Bora, we discussed that Zack Greinke’s ERA could go up an entire run and he still could be the best pitcher in the American League. At the same time, we doubted that Zack would regress that much. As it turned out, Zack’s ERA has gone up by just under two runs this year and while he is still a force to be reckoned with, Greinke is not dominating as he did in 2009.

That said, Zack is hardly the major issue with the Royals’ rotation. Gil Meche started all of nine games and now, if he ever pitches again as a Royal, will do so out of the bullpen. Luke Hochevar, who had shown signs of progress, was sat down for ‘a start or two’ on June 12th and has not been seen since. Brian Bannister is currently sporting an ERA of barely under six and Kyle Davies remains Kyle Davies.

How bad has it been for the rotation this year? Well, Bruce Chen, who found no takers for his services over the winter is arguably…not even arguably..IS the team’s number two starter and recently acquired Sean O’Sullivan, who has been tagged for 11 runs in 16 innings of work seems like an improvement over Bannister and Davies.

Of course, as I have often written, the end result of 2010 is not so important as building this team for the future. In that respect, the Royals have plenty to look forward to when it comes to the rotation. The AA level of the system boasts Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Danny Duffy and Chris Dwyer – all potential Top 100 prospects by the time those rankings come out this winter. Behind them is disappointing, but still talented, Aaron Crow, who is joined by another slew of good young arms in Tim Melville, Tyler Sample, Brian Paukovits and Will Smith. The system is positively bubbling with potential major league starters.

Here’s the bad news: if you throw out Crow’s 119 innings of work at Northwest Arkansas and Will Smith’s bizarre trip through three levels of the Angels’ system this season, the rest of the guys we just named COMBINED, have 60 innings of experience above A ball. That’s no one’s fault, just a result of some minor injuries, a two month ‘retirement’ and the simple fact that these pitchers are all very young.

Sixty innings of combined AA experience makes it highly unlikely that we see any of these hurlers in Kansas City before September of 2011. That bodes well for the rotation in 2012 and beyond, but it doesn’t do much for next year’s starting five.

Here is what we know about the 2011 rotation: Zack Greinke will be the number one starter and Gil Meche won’t be in it.

Long pause….

Chances are, and given the Royals’ recent performance/luck at getting major league starting pitchers healthy, it is just a chance, Luke Hochevar will be in the rotation, too. Before he went down in June, Luke had shaved over a run and one-half off his 2009 ERA (and yes, I think ERA is still a decent if somewhat crude measurement of the effectiveness of a starting pitcher) and gone six or more innings in nine of his thirteen starts. Should Hochevar make it back for even just a handful of starts yet this season, we could once more make a reasonable assumption that he might be able to take that ‘next step’ and settle in as a legitimate number three or number four starter.

Chen’s a guy that will be interesting to watch the rest of the year. After moving into the rotation, Bruce allowed 16 earned runs in his first 39 innings, but has been tagged for 20 runs in his last 25 innings. That is a bad trend, which if not reversed means Chen is not a realistic option in 2011.

Bannister’s performance has degraded to the point that the Royals are skipping his next turn in the rotation. Getting skipped in a rotation that includes Chen, O’Sullivan and Davies is not exactly a good trend, either. I don’t know what you do with Bannister, I really don’t. He is pretty much posting the worst numbers of his career across the board and getting worse as the season goes on.

Kyle Davies now has 641 innings on his major league resume and they pretty much all look the same. He is not horrible – well, not in comparison to Bannister or that guy who was wearing Gil Meche’s jersey earlier this year – but he is not anywhere near good, either. Frankly, I think you could put Kyle’s game logs for the last couple of seasons next to those of Odalis Perez during his Royals’ career and not be able to tell them apart. I don’t really view that as a ringing endorsement.

That brings us to Sean O’Sullivan, whose best asset at the moment is that he is just 22 years old. What we have seen out of Sean to date is in line with what the scouting reports indicated: a competitor, decent stuff and control, lacks a true out pitch and loses effectiveness the second and third time through a batting order. As many have pointed out, O’Sullivan is not the picture of physical conditioning, so it may be a case of simply maturing and getting in better shape. Frankly, I like O’Sullivan and could see him developing into a real number four starter (i.e. better than Bannister or Davies), but that might just be the ‘we always like the new guy syndrome’ at work there.

The options in AAA right now are pretty much Philip Humber, Gaby Hernandez and Edgar Osuna. Of the three, Osuna is intriguing, having pitched extremely well in AA with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.162 WHIP. He was pounced on pretty good in his first AAA start, but is worth watching in August. If Chen or Bannister continue to crumble or Ned Yost just gets as bored with Kyle Davies as I am, it might be worth three or four starts in September to get a feel for what Osuna has to offer.

So, what do you do in 2011 if you are running the Royals? Do you hold the line, trust the process (no sarcasm intended…for once) and wait for your truly impact arms to reach the bigs in 2012? Probably that is the smart course of action.

If Greinke rebounds from simply good back to dominant, Hochevar comes back healthy and effective (yikes, that probably jinxed him right there!), O’Sullivan matures and improves and you find two guys who are this side of awful out of Osuna, Chen, Bannister and Davies, then you have an ‘okay’ rotation. I don’t think the Royals can contend with that rotation, but those thoughts might not be realistic for next season, anyway.

Now, if you cannot tolerate a season of that rotation or you believe contending is a real possibility in 2011, then one has to look to free agency. The list of free agents this off-season can be found here, and there are a number of interesting names on the list. That said, how many that are upgrades can the Royals reasonably afford?

As you can see, projecting the 2012 starting rotation will be a lot more fun than doing so for 2011. What would you do?

Like this:

Comments

Written by Chaim Mattis Keller about 5 years ago.

I think you’re selling O’Sullivan a bit short. From what I’ve seen, he’s been pretty unlucky on balls in play. And of course, one of his starts (and some of that bad fielding luck) came against the Yankees.

Written by airgoesit about 5 years ago.

You buy $8-12 million/yr guy for 2-3 years through FA, whoever you can attract although I don’t know if that guy is out there this year. And take a flyer on 1-2 $4-6 million/yr guys (Bonderman, Corriea, Bush, Garland) to fill out the back of the rotation with Hoch. Maybe you overpay and take a chance on two of those guys for $8 million each. I don’t see a need to spend a dime in the field. Moose should be up by mid-year and there are servicable guys in Omaha to fill in any gaps. Betemit should be a priority at his cost. DM should have $14 million to work with. What is the downside? You have veteran arms to hold down the fort next year and mentorship for a year or two when the kids make it up to the show. Then as they and the bangers are hitting their prime, contracts expire and we’re a home grown team again.

Written by airgoesit about 5 years ago.

Not to mention Greinke and Soria don’t feel like Harvard PhD’s managing a lemonade stand for the next 2 years. And that assumes, of course, you can get a pitcher(s) without a 5 year deal.

Written by fb0252 about 5 years ago.

i’d say that exactly none of the royals pitchers excepting meche are “pictures of physical conditioning”, and hence the #1 problem on the Royals pitching staff.

Written by Greg about 5 years ago.

Greinke, ?, ?, Hoch, O’Sullivan is what we’re looking at it appears. If you want to be kind then slide Hoch to 3 spot I guess. I have faith he can become a #3, but I’d like to see him back on the mound soon. I don’t think it’s realistic to expect Moore to sign 2 ‘quality’ starters for big money, but I do think we should make a real run at a #2 type starter with what is hopefully a bit less than what Meche received. Any ideas on who could be had for 8-10 mil per? This assumes we don’t do much else and are wiling to increase payroll.

Then you have Greinke, mystery FA, Hoch, O’Sullivan, ?

There don’t appear to be any good solutions to fix this mess of a starting staff. When throwing big money at question marks is your best course, you are certainly walking on dangerous ground.

Written by Mr. Dave about 5 years ago.

I agree with airgoesit that they should sign a free agent pitcher to put between Greinke and Hochevar, but it should be someone that would be a probable low risk – high reward type. Looking at the list of free agent pitchers tentatively available this offseason, I would think Noah Lowry would be a good fit. If they are able to, obviously sign a pitcher like Cain or Webb, but Lowry seems to fit in their budget better. Based on the information available, it appears that he would be able to pitch next season, and with his injury history, would not command a large contract.

If they can get him, a rotation of Greinke, Hochevar, Lowry, O’Sullivan, and Chen isn’t that bad. It isn’t great, but it could, and has been, much worse. I actually think that the Royals may just let Davies go at the end of the year. He’s on a one year deal, so they wouldn’t really lose anything and they don’t have any further financial obligation to him.

Written by Greg about 5 years ago.

I think Davies should move to the bullpen if Hoch returns and see what happens there. Thoughts?

Written by Abh about 5 years ago.

I was hoping some NL teams would allow us to trade both Davies and Bannister last month… alas, no one seemed to be interested. I think if either has a future, it would be in the NL.

I never thought I’d say this, but I’d take Davies over Bannister at this point, and under no circumstances do I think I could stomach both returning next year. Greinke, Hochevar, Davies, O’Sullivan, plus one of the young LHPs or a FA.

Also, I hope to see a VERY young bullpen next year. Soria, Meche, Wood, and 3 rookies, with an insurance policy like Chen would be just fine. No more Cruz, Farnsworth, etc.

Written by Clark Fosler about 5 years ago.

Greg – I worry about Davies’ control problems coming out of the pen. I’m not against trying it, but I’m skeptical.

I wouldn’t count out Osuna next year. Also keep an eye on Blaine Hardy. He’s started his last 3 games, with increased innings each outing. He’s posting pretty good numbers too. We could see a rotation of something like Greinke, Hochevar, Hardy, O’Sullivan and Osuna. Or throw in a FA in the two spot and push that all back. Hardy and Osuna may be interchangeable depending on how Osuna does in AAA. I’m not going to read too much into his one bad outing so far. Granted he doesn’t strike many out, but he does have good control.

Abh – You’re heading in the right direction on the bullpen. To throw millions at FA relievers is akin to front office malpractice for this team.

Here’s the list of FA starters from Cot’s. I don’t think it’s entirely up to date, (Beckett was extended and more than a couple of those guys are already on the market – because they’re bad at pitching) but it’s a starting point. The * means there’s an option for 2011.

Blake – I’ve noted Hardy starting for Omaha as well, but I’m thinking it was just to get him more innings faster. Everything I’ve heard has him profiled as a reliever. They did this last year (or the year before – can’t remember) with Greg Holland – had him start for part of the year just to pile up experience in a hurry.

I expect Hardy to open 2011 in the Royals’ pen, but it will be interesting to see if they try him as a starter.

Written by Bobster about 5 years ago.

I for one would like to see us make a run at Livan Hernandez. Yes, you read that right. I thought he was washed up…his performance with the Nats this year has proven otherwise.

Written by airgoesit about 5 years ago.

Wow. I’ve seen that list before, but this time the actual level of talent vs. what it would cost (time and money) to sign most of those guys made me throw up in my mouth a little bit.
Not to mention it’s never a good sign when the high majority of players on a professional sport league free agent list would have been in high school at the same time I was.

Written by Eric P about 5 years ago.

A couple of guys from that list that intrigue me are Vicente Padilla, who at least stays healthy for the most part, and Javier Vazquez. I think if we just need a 1 or 2 year bridge to our crop of young starters, Padilla is a known entity. He’ll have some bad starts, some great starts, but for the most part will be consistent and hopefully keep an ERA a tad under 4.

Vazquez could be interesting because he might be looking for a one year showcase opportunity after being trashed and swept under the rug to begin the year in New York. If we could sign him to a one-year, $10 million deal, or something of the sort, there would be a good possibility that he could have a dominant season for us. He’s 34 right now, which means he probably has one more chance to get an expensive multi-year contract. Assuming that after this season he wont be able to get 3-4 years for $10 million from any clubs, he may jump at the opportunity to prove he has dominant stuff for a lesser team in hopes that in 2011 a larger club will give him that last big contract.

Written by Kyle about 5 years ago.

What is up with everyone’s hatred for Kyle Davies? I know he is still really inconsistent, but over his last 7 or 8 starts he has been better. He still walks WAY too many. He has dropped almost a full point off his ERA over that span. I know that’s not a full season, but it is a start. I would take Davies over Bannister right now.

Padilla does sound interesting. What happened to Jeremy Bonderman, wasn’t he an up and coming Tigers pitcher a couple of years ago? Anyone want to take a flyer on Dontrelle Willis?

A rotation of Greinke, FA, Hochevar, O’Sullivan, Davies sounds alright to me for 2011. I would much rather see Monty, Duffy, Dwyer, Lamb, or Crow, but that might be 2012 and beyond.

Guillen is gone at last. Why does GMDM feel the need to string out the obvious for so long??

The rotation in 2011 is simply a matter of hoping something good happens. Kyle Davies won’t through a strike on a bet, O’Sullivan is a younger, fatter version of Davies, Bannister has lost what little he had, Hochevar is Aaron Crow’s patron saint, Bruce Chen is a replacement level pitcher at best, and Greinke is Greinke. None of our minor league starters will arrive before 2012. But for 2011 is comes down to we need Greinke to become dominant again, for Hochevar to become a reasonable #3, for Davies to pound the strike zone, for O’Sullivan to get in shape and be a decent #4, and someone else to at least be serviceable.

When you need that any “if’s” to come true you know you are in trouble.

Written by Lucas about 5 years ago.

I’d love to see the Royals take a shot at Garland. He was a great signing for SD. I’m sure The K’s cavernous outfield would make him very happy.

De La Rosa would be a great signing too, but I doubt we can afford him.

Written by Eric about 5 years ago.

Don’t know if anyone has read the article from Dutton on the KCStar with an interview of Zack Greinke…. it’s obviously been a long year and long string of losing.

Written by Evan H. about 5 years ago.

What about moving Robinson Tejeda back to the rotation?

Written by TobyV about 5 years ago.

So, we have recently been told that 2012 is the year that we are looking to be a playoff team. But, none of these young pitcher are projected to play in the majors next year 2011 (maybe sept call up). Are we then saying that we are counting on 3 first year starter to complete our rotation on 2012, and that hoping that they are good enough their rookie years to cary this team to he playoff in 2012?
Or am I wrong about the 2012 being a playoff hopefull year and that is just the projected year that we hope to reach .500?
I would much rather go out next year and throw some money at a number 2 starter and maybe another lower tier starter. That way in 2012 we are not resting on having all of these young pitchers be great their rookie years.
I’m done with Bannister and Davies as starters. I would rather see anyone else for better or worse.