It has been seven weeks since the start of the truce in Syria, and we still cannot talk about any progress in the negotiations between the regime and the rebel opposition leader, Assad Al Zoubi. Such negotiations have been conditioned by the position of strength of the regime, supported by the reality of their military superiority and by the fact that their forces seems to be consolidating their control over the territory in places form where DAESH and Al-Nusra fighters are being expulsed.

In addition, there are a lot of truce breaking accusations between both sides, up to two thousand complaints by the opposition, which do nothing but weakening the already limited opportunities of agreement.

In this context of stalled negotiations, the regime has done a legitimacy movement: The celebration of legislative elections in which, by overwhelming majority, the “National Unity Coalition” have won. These elections haven’t been considered as legitimate by the international community, and the opposition leaders have called it even as a provocation.

In this “blocking” climate, regime’s loyal forces have started an offensive in the North of the country to complete the national fighting strategy against DAESH and other terrorist organizations, a strategy that is already bringing good results in the regions of Homs and Deir Ez Zor. That offensive, which has as objective to regain control over the territory and eliminate as much rebel and DAESH resistance as it’s possible (focusing in Al-Nusra, weakening the rebel cause), is producing an increasing of the violence, and the framework of the “counter-terrorist” ops could be a perfect excuse to destroy rebel crucial objectives without breaking the truce.

The UN purpose of free elections in one year and a half seem impossible now, as there are a lot of destabilizer factors which would prevent an agreement:

EEUU is supporting Kurds in the north, and the Kurds are consolidating their position, facing the chaos of the country. This situation will cause a violence increasing soon or later.

DAESH is putting pressure in the North, as a response to the loss of Tadmur, and as a preventive step to advance their defensive positions in order to protect Raqqa and to avoid or delay the siege of the city. In addition, this movements could end in the truce breaking, and the instability is in the side of DAESH.

Pressure of the regime against every area liable to be regained without a flagrant violation of the agreement. Assad’s actions seems to be focused in take advantage to regain power using the truce, either to avoid the negotiations (reaching the military victory) or to negotiate from a strength position.