Professional Site of Patrick English - Elections, Forecasting, Research

Friday, 5 May 2017

Thoughts from #LE2017 Part 2 - Uniform Swing

Another interesting thing to note is that we seem to be seeing much the same pattern from the South West of England right up through to the North East.

What was true of Somerset and Gloucestershire at the beginning of the counts - Conservatives taking seats from the Liberal Democrats despite both largely increasing their vote share, Labour support decreasing slightly, UKIP tanking - is currently holding as we move into the far North Eastern Council of Northumberland.

In short, there doesn't seem to be much regional variation in the patterns observed up until now. Across the country so far, there has been a swing to the Conservatives and Lib Dems from Labour and UKIP, with the main result being Conservatives taking control of seats (and councils).

Patterns in Wales have been slightly different in magnitude but directionally also quite similar (but with Plaid profiting from modest swings rather than the Lib Dems).

Something of a 'uniform swing' across the country - everywhere you look, it's broadly the same story.

As we move through the day, it will be interesting to see if any regions buck the trends. Scotland obviously will provide the most interest in this regard. What will happen with the SNP vote? Is their support also fading? If so, will it be the Conservatives that once again profit from those drifting voters?