Touchdowns are the lifeblood of fantasy football. In most cases,
they are highly volatile despite the fact that most teams endlessly
scheme to make sure 2-3 players are the primary options in the red
zone. There are many reasons for this, but it doesn’t change
the fact that during a given NFL game, the unplanned happens with
regularity. For example, a fullback may vulture the short score
that was originally earmarked for the team’s goal-line specialist
or a team’s fourth receiver gets a bit lucky on a tipped pass
meant for another receiver and comes down with the ball in the end
zone.

For the most part, one of the jobs of a successful fantasy football
owner is to be able to discern what exactly can be considered
lucky and what is repeatable. In other words, it is beneficial
to place your chips on the event that is most likely to happen
while also reducing the number of resources (i.e. players in your
fantasy lineup) that essentially need to count on a breakdown
or mistake from the defense to get their points. So how exactly
do we measure this?

One of the older fantasy football adages is that more opportunities
tend to lead to more success. Over the next two weeks, I will
attempt to arm each of you with this information. This week, my
goal is simply to break down what each of the 32 teams did in
the red zone last season – individually as well as a team
– in an effort to give you some idea as to how that offense
attacked defenses. What players were their team’s “bellcow”
inside the 20? How often did Michael Turner or Arian Foster score
when he was given a red-zone carry? How many times did Larry Fitzgerald
or Marques Colston get targeted in scoring territory? Which teams
were balanced and which ones were unbalanced with their red-zone
play-calling?

Information is typically what you make of it. As I spend the
next month-plus hammering out my game-by-game projections, I will
refer to this kind of information on a regular basis. While I
focus mostly on what players may/should exploit their individual
matchups in my projections, there is also something to be said
about how stubborn a team is about running the ball in the red
zone and fixated on 1-2 primary receivers at the goal line. Sustained
success in fantasy football is all in the details and it has been
my focus for years that no owner will consider more factors in
their analysis that I will.

Obviously, I just touched on a few of the applications for the
data I’m about to present as I attempted to give both player
and team equal time in my analysis. This year, I left the 2011
totals for each team on their chart so as to compare two years’
worth of red-zone data. I believe as the years pass, this information
will be useful for the teams that retain their head coaches and/or
offensive coordinators season after season. While I left some
brief thoughts for each team, don’t hesitate to take a few
minutes to review each category I have provided and try to understand
why that team opted to do what it did and the possible resulting
carryover for 2013.

With that out of the way, allow me to explain what each of the
headers mean before we get started with my overview on each team’s
red-zone attack philosophy last season:

Att – Pass AttemptsCmp – CompletionsPaTD – Pass TDPaTD % - The rate at which a red-zone
pass attempt resulted in a red-zone touchdown passRuAtt – Rush AttemptRuAtt % - The percentage of red-zone
carries a player had for his team (For example, Beanie Wells secured
32 of Arizona’s 52 red-zone carries, meaning he had 61.5%
of his team’s red-zone rushing attempts.)RuTD – Rush TDRuTD % - The rate at which a red-zone
rush attempt resulted in a red-zone touchdown runTar – Red-zone targetsTar % - The percentage of red-zone
targets a player had for his team (For example, Larry Fitzgerald
secured 17 of Arizona’s 51 red-zone passing attempts, meaning
he had 33.3% of his team’s red-zone targets.)Rec – Red-zone receptionsReTD – Receiving TDReTD% - The rate at which a red-zone
reception resulted in a red-zone touchdown receptionRZ Pass % - The percentage that
an offense attempted a pass in the red zonePass % - The percentage that an
offense attempted a pass, regardless of field positionRZ Run % - The percentage that an
offense attempted a run in the red zoneRun % - The percentage that an offense
attempted a run, regardless of field position

Last but not least, thanks to FF Today’s very own Kyle
Smith, whose Offensive
Focus article in early June provided me with the overall pass-run
percentages.

Note: the very detailed-oriented readers will
notice that the targets do not always equal the number of pass
attempts in the “totals” row. This discrepancy comes
as a result of occurrences such as clock-killing “spikes”
in the red zone that do not have an intended receiver.

The sheer number of players listed above should give everyone a
pretty good idea of the chaos in Arizona last season. Once we get
past the fact that no other team had three quarterbacks attempt
double-digit passes inside the 20 or six running backs see some
sort of action in the red zone, the first number that jumps out
is Stephens-Howlings’ 21 red-zone carries – only 11 fewer than Wells
in 2011. What comes as no surprise are Fitzgerald’s 20 red-zone
targets – one fewer than Roberts, Doucet and Floyd combined. In
regards to 2013, it would be a bit shocking if Arizona doesn’t manage
more than 102 plays inside the 20 and see a bit of an improvement
over its 15.69% overall success rate [(RuTD+PaTD)/(RuAtt+PaAtt)]
in that area. HC Bruce Arians’ vertical-based offense will push
the ball up the field and, with the highly athletic trio of Fitzgerald,
Floyd and Housler all capable of using their size and speed advantage,
Carson
Palmer will have more margin for error than he has in recent
years.

Atlanta Falcons

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Matt Ryan

82

54

24

29.3

3

3.8

1

33.3

QB

Luke McCown

2

2.6

0

0

RB

Michael Turner

50

64.1

9

18

2

2.4

2

0

0

RB

Jacquizz Rodgers

17

21.8

1

5.9

6

7.3

6

1

16.7

RB

Lousaka Polite

0

0

0

1

1.2

0

0

0

RB

Jason Snelling

5

6.4

0

0

7

8.5

5

1

20

WR

Julio Jones

20

24.4

11

7

63.6

WR

Roddy White

17

20.7

8

4

50

WR

Drew Davis

1

1.2

1

1

100

WR

Harry Douglas

1

1.3

0

0

6

7.3

5

0

0

WR

Kevin Cone

1

1.2

0

0

0

TE

Tony Gonzalez

16

19.5

12

8

66.7

TE

Michael Palmer

3

3.7

3

1

33.3

2012 Totals

82

54

24

29.27%

78

100

11

14.10%

80

97.4

53

23

54.41%

51.25

61.93

48.75

38.07

2011 Totals

79

38

18

22.78%

83

100

12

14.46%

77

97.6

38

18

47.37%

48.77

57.78

51.23

42.22

OC Dirk Koetter enjoyed great success in his first year with Atlanta
with his pass-heavy attack, but just like they were under former
OC Mike Mularkey, the Falcons remained very balanced in the red
zone. In 2011, the pass-run ratio was 79:83. In 2012, it was 82:78.
Ryan took a big step forward inside the 20 last season, completing
66% of his passes, throwing for six more scores and increasing his
PaTD % from 22.8 to 29.3. Turner saw only a minimal drop in his
red-zone work but was actually a bit more efficient in that area
(18%) than he was in 2011 (15.3%). But the most obvious difference
came in the passing game. Gonzalez saw the same number of red-zone
targets as he did in 2011, but the 12 that White lost all went to
Jones – meaning the duo combined for the exact same number of targets
in 2011 as they did in 2012. HC Mike Smith’s teams are almost always
among the most disciplined and offensively-balanced squads each
season, so the addition of Steven
Jackson only figures to improve the team’s rather pathetic 14.1
RuTD % while also increasing the efficiency of one of the league’s
most efficient red-zone passing games from a season ago.

Baltimore Ravens

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Joe Flacco

50

22

11

22

11

17.7

3

27.3

QB

Tyrod Taylor

2

3.2

1

50

RB

Ray Rice

36

58.1

8

22.2

11

22

4

0

0

RB

Bernard Pierce

9

14.5

1

11.1

RB

Anthony Allen

2

3.2

1

50

RB

Vonta Leach

1

1.6

1

100

3

6

1

0

0

WR

Torrey Smith

10

20

7

5

71.4

WR

Anquan Boldin

8

16

2

1

50

WR

Tandon Doss

2

4

1

1

100

WR

Jacoby Jones

4

8

1

0

0

TE

Dennis Pitta

10

20

6

4

66.7

TE

Ed Dickson

1

2

0

0

0

2012 Totals

50

22

11

22.00%

61

98.3

15

24.59%

49

98

22

11

22.45%

45.05

55.78

54.95

44.22

2011 Totals

55

23

12

21.82%

67

99.9

13

19.40%

54

98.1

23

12

52.17%

45.08

55.69

54.92

44.31

Because OC Jim Caldwell didn’t take over for Cam Cameron until
after the midpoint of the season, there isn’t a pronounced
difference from the red-zone pass-run ratio in 2011 (55:67). That
will almost certainly change in 2013, along with just about everything
else in Baltimore. Flacco’s passing numbers inside the 20
from last year were nearly identical to his 2011 numbers, something
that really can’t be expected to improve now with Boldin in
San Francisco. Rice saw a significant drop (from 47 to 36) in red-zone
carries, but his increase in receptions (from five to 11) helped
keep his red-zone touches at a very respectable number (47). Rice
actually led the team in red-zone targets while Smith and Pitta
shared second place honors, one season after Boldin and Dickson
were Flacco’s top options inside the 20. Next season promises
to be different than the past two seasons, however, with Caldwell
likely running the ball more often regardless of field position.
Rice will almost certainly see his touches drop due to emergence
of Pierce while Pitta could see 15-16 red-zone targets – a
total that would place around the top five at his position in most
years. Dickson, though, is the wild-card. With Boldin no longer
commanding 10-12 red-zone targets, Dickson could make for an inviting
target and snag the leftover passes that don’t go in Pitta’s
direction.

Buffalo Bills

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Ryan Fitzpatrick

53

30

14

26.4

9

19.6

1

11.1

RB

C.J. Spiller

17

37

4

23.5

1

1.9

1

0

0

RB

Fred Jackson

11

23.9

3

27.3

5

9.4

4

1

25

RB

Tashard Choice

6

13

1

16.7

WR

Donald Jones

11

20.8

7

3

42.9

WR

Steve Johnson

15

28.3

6

2

33.3

WR

Brad Smith

2

4.3

1

50

4

7.5

2

1

50

WR

T.J. Graham

3

5.7

2

1

50

WR

Ruvell Martin

2

3.8

2

0

0

TE

Scott Chandler

8

15.1

4

4

100

TE

Dorin Dickerson

1

2.2

0

0

1

1.9

0

0

0

TE

Lee Smith

2

3.8

2

2

100

2012 Totals

53

30

14

26.42%

46

100

10

21.74%

52

98.2

30

14

30.55%

53.54

53.62

46.46

46.38

2011 Totals

79

42

20

25.32%

57

100

8

14.04%

76

96.3

42

20

47.62%

58.09

60.58

41.91

39.42

Ex-HC Chan Gailey received a lot of criticism – rightfully
so, for the most part – for his unwillingness to turn the
offense over to Spiller when it became apparent he was the team’s
top playmaker. Be that as it may, Gailey was able to coax pretty
solid production from his passing game considering the fact that
Fitzpatrick was his quarterback and Jones was the second-most targeted
option on the team. The team’s red-zone success rate was actually
on par with Denver for one of the best conversion percentages in
the league. Gailey’s problem? The Bills only ran 99 plays
inside the 20 last season – one of the lowest marks in the
NFL. New HC Doug Marrone is promising an up-tempo attack and has
stated that he believes in rolling with his top back. This should
be a fairly run-heavy team that leans even more on the ground game
the closer it gets to scoring territory in 2013, meaning Spiller
has a legit chance to double his 17 red-zone carries while Jackson
could also see a slight increase of his 11 attempts if he can just
last 16 games. It also sounds as if Marrone has big plans for Johnson
in the slot, meaning he should easily match – if not surpass
– his 15 targets inside the 20 in 2013.

Carolina Panthers

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Cam Newton

57

20

8

14

30

40

7

23.3

RB

DeAngelo Williams

22

29.3

3

13.6

1

1.8

1

0

0

RB

Jonathan Stewart

9

12

1

11.1

2

3.5

1

1

100

RB

Mike Tolbert

14

18.7

7

50

2

3.5

0

0

0

WR

Steve Smith

14

24.6

4

2

50

WR

Louis Murphy

13

22.8

4

1

25

WR

Brandon LaFell

9

15.8

3

1

33.3

WR

Kealoha Pilares

2

3.5

1

0

0

TE

Greg Olsen

12

21.1

6

3

50

TE

Ben Hartsock

1

1.8

0

0

0

TE

Richie Brockel

1

1.8

0

0

0

2012 Totals

57

20

8

14.04%

75

100

18

24.00%

57

100.2

20

8

19.96%

43.18

51.47

56.82

48.53

2011 Totals

59

26

13

22.03%

69

99.9

19

27.54%

57

96.6

26

13

50.00%

46.46

57.98

53.54

42.02

Newton took a big step backwards in terms of his red-zone efficiency
in 2012, completing only 35% (20-for-57) of those passes. On the
ground, he had nine fewer rushes and scored six fewer touchdowns.
Much of the blame for that probably falls on former OC Rod Chudzinski,
who went about halfway into the season with a shotgun-heavy, zone
read-based offense before returning to a more traditional offensive
approach late in the season. It is also easy to criticize the deployment
of the running backs since Williams had one less carry inside the
20 than Stewart and Tolbert did combined. Finally, Murphy’s
13 red-zone targets – one more than Olsen and one less than
Smith – was another stunning number since LaFell is the starter
and Murphy is known more as a downfield receiver. Since Carolina
believes it will go up-tempo this season, it is fair to assume Newton’s
pass and rush attempts – red zone or otherwise – will
go up, but his 39.7% completion rate inside the 20 will have to
increase significantly if he is going to fulfill his massive fantasy
potential. The feature-back role is there for the taking for Stewart,
but he’s not even a sure thing for training camp following
offseason surgery on both ankles. Olsen would seem to be a good
candidate to see more red-zone scores, but he hasn’t shown
a great knack for the end zone during his two-year stay with Carolina.
Therefore, look for the Panthers to lean more heavily on the run
this year.

Chicago Bears

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Jay Cutler

47

25

11

23.4

2

3.3

0

0

QB

Jason Campbell

5

2

2

40

RB

Matt Forte

26

43.3

5

19.2

7

13.5

5

1

20

RB

Michael Bush

20

33.3

5

25

2

3.8

1

0

0

RB

Armando Allen

7

11.7

0

0

RB

Evan Rodriguez

1

1.9

0

0

0

RB

Kahlil Bell

4

6.7

0

0

WR

Brandon Marshall

23

44.2

13

8

61.5

WR

Earl Bennett

6

11.5

3

1

33.3

WR

Alshon Jeffery

4

7.7

1

1

100

WR

Eric Weems

1

1.9

0

0

0

WR

Devin Hester

1

1.7

0

0

1

1.9

0

0

0

TE

Kellen Davis

3

5.8

2

1

50

TE

Matt Spaeth

2

3.8

1

1

100

TE

Kyle Adams

1

1.9

0

0

0

2012 Totals

52

27

13

25.00%

60

100

10

16.67%

51

97.9

26

13

26.56%

46.43

50.79

53.57

49.21

2011 Totals

44

21

10

22.73%

52

99.9

9

17.31%

41

93.3

20

10

50.00%

45.83

53.37

54.17

46.63

The numbers that stand out the most are Marshall’s 23 red-zone
targets and his 44.2% target rate inside the 20 – the latter
of which was easily the highest mark in the NFL. (In fact, Marshall
more than tripled Forte, who finished second on the team with seven.)
It’s safe to say that new HC Marc Trestman probably will not
allow that kind of imbalance in one of his offenses. Jeffery will
see more than four red-zone targets while Martellus Bennett could
easily double the six combined targets of the tight end trio (Davis,
Spaeth and Adams). But the biggest change figures to come in Forte’s
role since Trestman sounds as if he wants to use him in a Marshall
Faulk-like manner for as long as possible. Bush will likely remain
a factor and probably continue to vulture some short-yardage touchdowns
from Forte, but expect Forte to get the majority of work out of
the Bears’ backfield until they get inside 5-yard-line. With
two big receivers and Bennett, Cutler’s red-zone production
and efficiency should skyrocket. He could easily enjoy a career
year.

Cincinnati Bengals

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Andy Dalton

70

38

20

28.6

10

14.1

4

40

QB

Bruce Gradkowski

2

0

0

0

RB

B Green-Ellis

43

60.6

6

14

3

4.2

1

0

0

RB

Cedric Peerman

6

8.5

1

16.7

RB

Brian Leonard

4

5.6

0

0

2

2.8

1

0

0

RB

Bernard Scott

3

4.2

0

0

RB

Dan Herron

1

1.4

0

0

1

1.4

0

0

0

RB

Chris Pressley

1

1.4

1

1

100

WR

A.J. Green

1

1.4

0

0

22

30.6

11

8

72.7

WR

Mohamed Sanu

7

9.7

4

4

100

WR

Andrew Hawkins

1

1.4

0

0

12

16.7

8

2

25

WR

Armon Binns

5

10.2

1

0

0

WR

Marvin Jones

4

5.6

2

1

50

WR

Brandon Tate

1

1.4

0

0

TE

Jermaine Gresham

13

18.1

9

4

44.4

2012 Totals

72

38

20

27.78%

70

98.6

11

15.71%

70

100.7

38

20

37.74%

50.7

55.67

49.3

44.33

2011 Totals

65

34

15

23.08%

70

100

8

11.43%

62

95.3

34

15

44.12%

48.15

55.17

51.85

44.83

The Bengals were one of a few teams to run it more often inside
the 20 than they threw it in 2011 and ended up as one of the most-balanced
teams inside the 20 again in 2012. Dalton’s efficiency improved
slightly last year, but almost all the credit goes to Green. The
second-year wideout saw his red-zone TD total go from three as a
rookie to eight in 2012, essentially increasing Dalton’s passing
TDs inside the red zone from 15 to 20 by himself. It was also rather
stunning to see the smallish Hawkins with one less target inside
the 20 than Gresham and Sanu, although Sanu’s red-zone production
in just 116 pass play snaps (per Pro Football Focus) – most of which
came in the only three weeks he played more than half the game –
is particularly impressive. Green-Ellis’ conversion rate (14%) simply
reinforces the fact he isn’t a particularly good back, although
his job as the team’s short-yardage/goal-line back is probably secure
until his contract runs out at the end of the 2014 season. Assuming
Sanu can stay healthy this season, look for him to be the clear
No. 2 option inside the 20 for Dalton as Cincinnati probably won’t
give Hawkins 12 red-zone looks again. Rookie Tyler
Eifert should also put a significant dent into Gresham’s targets
inside the 20.

Cleveland Browns

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Brandon Weeden

46

19

5

10.9

1

2

0

0

QB

Colt McCoy

1

1

1

100

QB

Thad Lewis

1

1

1

100

RB

Trent Richardson

38

76

9

23.7

6

12.5

0

0

0

RB

M Hardesty

8

16

1

12.5

RB

Chris Ogbonnaya

1

2

0

0

WR

Greg Little

1

2

0

0

7

14.6

3

3

100

WR

Travis Benjamin

2

4.2

2

0

0

WR

Josh Gordon

8

16.7

2

0

0

WR

Josh Cribbs

1

2

0

0

2

4.2

1

0

0

WR

Josh Cooper

2

4.2

0

0

0

WR

M Massaquoi

2

4.2

1

0

0

TE

Benjamin Watson

9

18.8

6

3

50

TE

Jordan Cameron

6

12.5

2

1

50

TE

Alex Smith

3

6.3

3

0

0

TE

Brad Smelley

1

2.1

1

0

0

2012 Totals

48

21

7

14.58%

50

100

10

20.00%

48

100.3

21

7

20.94%

48.98

58.84

51.02

41.16

2011 Totals

47

25

10

21.28%

52

99.9

3

5.77%

45

95.8

24

10

41.67%

47.47

59.47

52.53

40.53

The Browns had 99 red-zone plays in 2011 and 98 in 2012, but the
case could be made that were much more successful. The biggest difference
was the success of the running game and Richardson in particular,
who tripled Cleveland’s touchdowns in that area from the previous
year (three) by himself. Weeden was half as effective (10.9%) as
McCoy was in 2011 (22.5), but that is hardly surprising since the
rookie quarterback has a big arm and was confined by the inflexibility
of ex-HC Pat Shurmur’s West Coast offense. For the second
straight year, no receiver in Cleveland managed to attract double-digit
targets or scored more than three red-zone touchdowns. The good
news is that players like Weeden, Gordon and Cameron will all be
in a position to succeed for the first time in their careers under
new OC Norv Turner, who will put Weeden’s arm strength as
well as Gordon and Cameron’s deep speed to good use. While
it is notable that Cleveland has actually paid a lot of attention
to the tight end (relatively speaking) inside the 20 the past two
years (19 combined targets in both seasons), Cameron figures to
see the majority of those this time around. It was not be shocking
at all to see Cameron receive roughly 15-16 targets and 6-7 scores.

Dallas Cowboys

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD %

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD
%

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Tony Romo

73

34

14

19.2

4

10

1

25

1

1.3

1

0

0

QB

Kyle Orton

2

2

1

50

RB

Felix Jones

9

22.5

2

22.2

3

4

2

2

100

RB

DeMarco Murray

17

42.5

4

23.5

3

4

3

0

0

RB

Lance Dunbar

2

5

0

0

3

4

1

0

0

RB

Phillip Tanner

8

20

0

0

RB

Lawrence Vickers

1

1.3

0

0

0

WR

Dez Bryant

14

18.7

9

4

44.4

WR

Miles Austin

13

17.3

5

2

40

WR

Kevin Ogletree

7

9.3

3

2

66.7

WR

Dwayne Harris

5

6.7

2

1

50

WR

Cole Beasley

5

6.7

1

0

0

WR

Andre Holmes

1

1.3

1

0

0

TE

Jason Witten

14

18.7

7

3

42.9

TE

John Phillips

1

1.3

1

1

100

TE

James Hanna

2

2.7

0

0

0

2012 Totals

75

36

15

20.00%

40

100

7

17.50%

73

97.3

36

15

37.00%

65.22

64.96

34.78

35.04

2011 Totals

74

43

20

27.03%

60

99.9

4

6.67%

70

94.8

40

20

50.00%

55.22

59.88

44.78

40.12

While Jerry Jones’ move to assign Bill Callahan the play-calling
duties for the 2013 season can and will be questioned for some time,
one justification is the team’s incredible 75:40 pass-run ratio
inside the 20. The resulting average of 1.88 passes for every run
was the third-highest mark in the league behind New Orleans and
(you guessed it) Jacksonville. Although Murray’s six missed games
had something to do with that total as did the emergence of Bryant,
it speaks to the number of times Dallas was in comeback mode and
how bad its offensive line was. The lopsided ratio also helped drive
Romo’s efficiency down eight percent. Witten’s second straight poor
conversion rate (he was 3-for-15 in 2011 and 3-for-14 in 2012) still
boggles the mind for a player with such great hands that specializes
in the short passing game. In 2013, look for many of the targets
that went to Olgetree, Harris and Beasley to become rushes for Murray
and rookie Joseph
Randle (assuming he wins the backup job). Bryant could easily
lead the league in targets with 20-25.

Denver Broncos

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Peyton Manning

82

47

27

32.9

5

6.6

0

0

QB

Brock Osweiler

1

1.3

0

0

RB

Willis McGahee

26

34.2

4

15.4

4

4.9

3

0

0

RB

Knowshon Moreno

21

27.6

4

19

4

4.9

3

0

0

RB

Lance Ball

9

11.8

1

11.1

2

2.4

2

1

50

RB

Jacob Hester

4

5.3

2

50

1

1.2

1

0

0

RB

Ronnie Hillman

10

13.2

1

10

1

1.2

1

0

0

WR

Eric Decker

24

29.3

16

11

68.8

WR

Demaryius Thomas

21

25.6

9

6

66.7

WR

Brandon Stokley

5

6.1

3

2

66.7

WR

Matt Willis

1

1.2

0

0

0

TE

Joel Dreessen

11

13.4

6

4

66.7

TE

Jacob Tamme

5

6.1

2

2

100

TE

Virgil Green

1

1.2

0

0

0

2012 Totals

82

47

27

32.93%

76

100

12

15.79%

80

97.5

46

26

47.18%

51.9

55.01

48.1

44.99

2011 Totals

45

23

11

24.44%

40

100

6

15.00%

45

100

23

11

47.83%

52.94

53.69

47.06

46.31

As expected, Manning’s arrival had a dramatic effect on this offense.
After running only 85 total red-zone plays in 2011, Manning nearly
matched that total in the passing game by himself in his first year
as a Bronco. The running game obviously benefited as well with 36
more opportunities inside the 20, although their level of success
in the red zone over the Tim
Tebow-led offense was marginal (0.79 increase) – this is one
area in which rookie Montee
Ball should help as an accomplished inside runner with a nose
for the end zone. An interesting comparison to make is between Decker
and Thomas. For all of Thomas’ physical gifts, he only caught 9
of the 21 red-zone passes thrown his way (42.9%) while Decker was
16-of-24 (66.7). Decker may have struggled a bit more with drops
over the course of the season than Thomas did, but Decker will probably
enjoy the path of least resistance in the red zone (read: avoid
the defensive attention paid to Thomas) for as long as he is playing
alongside the Georgia Tech product. Look for Decker to continue
being a red-zone hog while Wes
Welker enjoys about 15 opportunities inside the 20 – stealing
most of the 10 combined targets that Stokley and Tamme had last
season.

Detroit Lions

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Matthew Stafford

83

39

15

18.1

9

15.8

4

44.4

QB

Shaun Hill

5

3

1

20

1

1.8

0

0

RB

Mikel Leshoure

28

49.1

9

32.1

4

4.5

3

0

0

RB

Joique Bell

13

22.8

2

15.4

9

10.2

5

0

0

RB

Kevin Smith

4

7

1

25

2

2.3

1

1

100

RB

Stefan Logan

3

3.4

3

0

0

WR

Calvin Johnson

17

19.3

6

2

33.3

WR

Nate Burleson

1

1.8

0

0

7

8

5

2

40

WR

Ryan Broyles

5

5.7

3

2

66.7

WR

Titus Young

7

8

3

2

66.7

WR

Mike Thomas

4

4.5

1

1

100

WR

Brian Robiskie

1

1.1

1

1

100

WR

Kris Durham

2

2.3

0

0

0

TE

Brandon Pettigrew

11

12.5

5

3

60

TE

Will Heller

3

3.4

2

1

50

TE

Tony Scheffler

11

12.5

4

1

25

2012 Totals

88

42

16

18.18%

56

98.3

16

28.57%

86

97.7

42

16

42.99%

61.11

65.43

38.89

34.57

2011 Totals

100

50

29

29.00%

50

100

8

16.00%

98

98

50

29

58.00%

66.67

66.35

33.33

33.65

Detroit had eight more plays in the red zone and has enjoyed eerily
similar success rates inside the 20 over the past two seasons (24.68%
in 2012; 24.66 in 2011). The biggest change was that nine of Johnson’s
24 red-zone targets resulted in touchdowns in 2011 while only two
of his 17 targets ended the same way in 2012. With Reggie
Bush around to fill the Jahvid
Best role in this offense and (hopefully) better luck in the
injury department at receiver, it would be surprising if Stafford’s
success rate didn’t move more towards to the 29% it was in 2011
as opposed to the 18.1% he finished at in 2012. For what it is worth,
Leshoure was easily the most successful red-zone rusher of all backs
who had at least 20 such carries, but he made up for it by averaging
3.7 YPC overall despite facing a stacked box less than any other
running back in the league (6.05%, per Pro Football Focus), verifying
that his best role is likely in short-yardage. Given all the injuries
at receiver, it is difficult to draw any concrete conclusions. One
notable stat: Burleson averaged more than one red-zone target per
game in 2012, slightly ahead of the pace Johnson set in 2012 and
ahead of his own pace in 2011. Despite the turnover at receiver,
the tight end group saw 12 fewer targets in 2012 than in 2011. This
year, fantasy owners should expect Detroit to operate closer to
the 2:1 pass-run ratio it was at in 2011, with Bush seeing a fair
amount of passes on swing and arrow routes and Johnson experiencing
success at a rate closer to the level he experienced two years ago.

Green Bay Packers

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ
Pass %

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Aaron Rodgers

66

41

24

36.4

9

22.5

1

11.1

QB

Graham Harrell

1

2.5

0

0

RB

Ryan Grant

5

12.5

2

40

RB

DuJuan Harris

7

17.5

2

28.6

RB

Cedric Benson

3

7.5

1

33.3

1

1.5

1

0

0

RB

Alex Green

12

30

0

0

6

9.1

4

0

0

RB

John Kuhn

2

5

1

50

1

1.5

1

0

0

RB

James Starks

2

5

0

0

WR

James Jones

19

28.8

14

11

78.6

WR

Jordy Nelson

11

16.7

6

4

66.7

WR

Greg Jennings

9

13.6

6

4

66.7

WR

Randall Cobb

7

10.6

6

3

50

WR

Donald Driver

3

4.5

1

1

100

TE

Jermichael Finley

8

12.1

2

1

50

2012 Totals

66

41

24

36.36%

41

102.5

7

17.07%

65

98.4

41

24

41.67%

61.68

56.31

38.32

43.69

2011 Totals

90

57

31

34.44%

59

98.4

10

16.95%

87

96.5

57

31

54.39%

60.4

60.02

39.6

39.98

Green Bay was slightly more efficient in the red zone than it was
in 2011, but scored 10 fewer times when it was there. Perhaps the
most stunning statistic was the Packers scored 49 offensive touchdowns
in 2012, but only ran 107 red-zone plays – three more than Jacksonville
and seven more than St. Louis. Obviously, that speaks to Green Bay’s
big-play ability, but it is still an impressive efficiency rate
outside the 20 nonetheless. Green Bay used a 90:59 pass-run ratio
in the red zone in 2011, which should be roughly the same kind of
ratio fantasy owners should expect in 2013 following the additions
of Eddie
Lacy and Johnathan
Franklin. In 2011, four players – including Rodgers – had more
than 10 red-zone carries, but only Lacy and Kuhn should expect to
hit that mark this season if the Packers’ running backs can stay
healthy. Given the trust Rodgers has in them and loss of Jennings,
Jones should be able to maintain his high-target tally while Nelson
revisits his 2012 totals (15 red-zone targets, seven red-zone scores).
A possible wild-card for more red-zone production is the fourth
receiver spot since Cobb will see most of his work in between the
20s. Rodgers has stated publicly he believes Jarrett
Boykin is ready for that role, but he’ll need to hold off a
challenge from talented rookie Charles
Johnson – and that is assuming that a refocused Finley doesn’t
become the red-zone beast he was only a few years ago.

Houston Texans

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Matt Schaub

49

28

14

28.6

2

2.2

0

0

QB

T.J. Yates

1

0

0

0

1

1.1

1

100

RB

Arian Foster

74

80.4

15

20.3

9

18

6

2

33.3

RB

Ben Tate

10

10.9

2

20

RB

Justin Forsett

5

5.4

0

0

1

2

1

0

0

WR

Andre Johnson

8

16

4

2

50

WR

Keshawn Martin

5

10

3

1

33.3

WR

Kevin Walter

3

6

2

0

0

WR

DeVier Posey

1

2

0

0

TE

Owen Daniels

12

24

3

3

100

TE

Garrett Graham

5

10

5

3

60

TE

James Casey

5

10

4

3

75

2012 Totals

50

28

14

28.00%

92

100

18

19.57%

49

98

28

14

28.57%

35.21

52.17

64.79

47.83

2011 Totals

69

31

11

15.94%

101

97

16

15.84%

61

88.2

31

11

35.48%

40.59

47.8

59.41

52.2

If Houston reminded fans of their fathers’ Texans (and I don’t mean
the 2002 expansion team), it might be because their pass-run ratio
was nearly 1:2, which is almost unheard of nowadays (remarkably,
two teams were more run-heavy inside the 20 – the Jets and the Redskins).
Foster’s 74 red-zone rush attempts were more than 21 teams and equal
to another one. (It may also help explain Foster’s career-low 4.1
YPC since he had 20 more rushes attempts inside the 20 than he did
in 2011 and eight more than his breakout 2010 campaign.) Furthermore,
his 80 red-zone touches is another absurd number and one that probably
needs to come down – and hopefully will assuming Tate stays healthy
this season. The run-heavy approach helped Schaub’s red-zone efficiency
rate nearly double from 15.6% in 2011 to 28.6 last season. The Texans’
run-oriented approach in the red zone did not fascinate Johnson’s
owners, however, as his eight targets matched his total from his
injury-plagued 2011 season. Coincidentally, Daniels’ 12 red-zone
targets matched his 2011 output and led the team in both seasons.
The arrival of DeAndre
Hopkins probably means Houston will allow Schaub to throw 50+
passes inside the 20 for the first time since 2010, but the Texans
will likely remain one of the most run-heavy teams – regardless
of field position – this fall.

Indianapolis
Colts

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Andrew Luck

69

35

15

21.7

14

23

5

35.7

RB

Vick Ballard

25

41

2

8

7

10

5

1

20

RB

Delone Carter

5

8.2

3

60

RB

Donald Brown

9

14.8

1

11.1

2

2.9

1

0

0

RB

Mewelde Moore

5

8.2

0

0

1

1.4

1

1

100

RB

Robert Hughes

1

1.4

1

0

0

WR

Reggie Wayne

17

24.3

7

4

57.1

WR

Donnie Avery

14

20

5

3

60

WR

T.Y. Hilton

1

0

0

0

2

3.3

0

0

8

11.4

5

2

40

WR

Nathan Palmer

1

1.4

0

0

WR

LaVon Brazill

1

1.4

1

0

0

TE

Dwayne Allen

1

1.6

0

0

8

11.4

6

3

50

TE

Coby Fleener

8

11.4

3

1

33.3

2012 Totals

70

35

15

21.43%

61

100.1

11

18.03%

68

97

35

15

36.08%

53.44

58.8

46.56

41.2

2011 Totals

61

25

9

14.75%

47

100

7

14.89%

59

96.8

25

9

36.00%

56.48

59.83

43.52

40.17

Former OC Bruce Arians’ pass-oriented approach got much more balanced
inside the 20, although Luck’s 14 red-zone runs certainly helped
balance out the percentages. While new OC Pep Hamilton plans on
keeping some of the same vertical-passing principles in his offense,
his background at Stanford suggests he will attempt to hammer away
at the defense with the running game much more than Arians did.
Although it doesn’t appear to make a lot of sense to take the ball
out of the hands of their best player (Luck) in scoring territory,
there will be a heavy emphasis on keeping Luck’s jersey clean in
the coming years. Ballard’s RuTD % is absolutely dreadful, but much
of that can be explained from the lack of power in his offensive
line and Luck’s tendency to steal his short scores. Ahmad
Bradshaw’s arrival could mean that Ballard puts up similar red-zone
numbers in 2013, or it could simply mean the Colts wanted a back
who could do Brown’s job better than he could. Either way, the Luck-Bradshaw-Ballard
trio should easily combine for more than 61 red-zone rush attempts
in 2012. As for the receivers, expect Wayne’s targets to dip a bit
while Allen and Fleener each absorb most of Avery’s outgoing targets.
Owners would also be wise not to sleep on Darrius
Heyward-Bey, who is a good bet to enjoy a career year – red
zone and in general – if he can land a starting job. He’s a better
player than Avery and a much bigger target than Hilton.

Jacksonville
Jaguars

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD %

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD
%

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Chad Henne

38

18

7

18.4

3

8.6

1

33.3

QB

Blaine Gabbert

31

16

6

19.4

2

5.7

0

0

RB

Rashad Jennings

9

25.7

2

22.2

2

2.9

1

0

0

RB

M Jones-Drew

7

20

0

0

3

4.3

2

1

50

RB

Greg B. Jones

2

5.7

0

0

2

2.9

2

0

0

RB

Keith Toston

1

2.9

0

0

RB

Montell Owens

4

11.4

0

0

1

1.4

1

0

0

RB

Richard Murphy

3

8.6

0

0

RB

Jalen Parmele

4

11.4

0

0

1

1.4

0

0

0

WR

Justin Blackmon

12

17.4

6

3

50

WR

Cecil Shorts

12

17.4

4

2

50

WR

Micheal Spurlock

6

9.8

4

1

25

WR

Jordan Shipley

1

1.4

1

1

100

WR

Laurent Robinson

5

7.2

2

0

0

WR

Toney Clemons

1

1.4

0

0

0

WR

Kevin Elliott

2

3.8

1

0

0

WR

Mike Thomas

2

6.8

2

0

0

TE

Marcedes Lewis

15

21.7

7

4

57.1

2012 Totals

69

34

13

18.84%

35

100

3

8.57%

65

99.8

33

12

33.07%

66.35

62.08

33.65

37.92

2011 Totals

50

22

9

18.00%

55

99.9

8

14.55%

50

100

22

9

40.91%

47.62

51.2

52.38

48.8

Jacksonville was truly putrid last season, with three pass catchers
recording more red-zone targets than any rusher had red-zone rushing
attempts. Needless to say when Gabbert and Henne are the quarterbacks,
that “feat” should never happen at the pro level barring an incredible
string of injuries at the running back position. On their third
different coach and play-caller in as many years, the Jaguars have
tried the balanced approach (50 runs and 55 passes in the red zone
in 2011) before going completely pass-happy in 2012 (69 passes,
35 runs in 2012), although Jones-Drew holdout- and injury-shortened
season played a big role in that. Expect 2013 to be more like 2011,
with a possibility they could run more than they pass - assuming
MJD can make it all the way through his contract year. Rookie Denard
Robinson has a chance to spice up this offense, but he will
almost certainly be a weapon outside the 20s. Any improvement in
red-zone efficiency (which was 16.2 % in 2011 and 15.4% in 2012)
will depend on how big of a step Shorts can take as well as Lewis
recapturing the red-zone form that made him a fantasy delight in
2010.

Kansas City Chiefs

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Matt Cassel

17

9

3

17.6

4

8

1

25

QB

Brady Quinn

15

4

2

13.3

1

2

0

0

1

3

0

0

0

RB

Jamaal Charles

23

46

1

4.3

4

12.1

3

1

33.3

RB

Shaun Draughn

9

18

2

22.2

1

3

1

0

0

RB

Peyton Hillis

1

0

0

0

11

22

1

9.1

1

3

0

0

0

RB

Cyrus Gray

1

2

0

0

WR

Dexter McCluster

1

2

0

0

5

15.2

3

1

33.3

WR

Dwayne Bowe

3

9.1

1

1

100

WR

Jon Baldwin

4

12.1

1

1

100

WR

Terrance Copper

1

3

1

0

0

WR

Jamar Newsome

2

6.1

0

0

0

TE

Tony Moeaki

7

21.2

3

1

33.3

TE

Steve Maneri

3

9.1

0

0

0

2012 Totals

33

13

5

15.15%

50

100

5

10.00%

32

96.9

13

5

13.42%

39.76

48.72

60.24

51.28

2011 Totals

46

21

8

17.39%

50

98.2

3

6.00%

45

97.9

20

8

40.00%

47.92

52.3

52.08

47.7

The stats and standings say Jacksonville was actually a bit better
than Kansas City in 2012, but it would be a stunner if the same
can be said at the end of this season. The quarterback play will
be better because the talent and coaching will be better, while
the running game will improve because Charles will be utilized in
the way he should have been all along. Although rookie Knile
Davis is a bigger back with good speed, Charles will almost
certainly have his shot to improve on his 26 red-zone touches. Bowe’s
three red-zone targets is remarkably low considering he has easily
been the best red-zone weapon the team has employed since the Chiefs
traded Tony
Gonzalez following the 2008 season, so the idea that McCluster
and Baldwin would see more balls thrown their way is insane. Under
new HC Andy Reid, it would actually come as a surprise if Kansas
City didn’t reverse its 40:60 pass-run ratio inside the 20 in 2013,
with Bowe pushing 20 targets while Anthony
Fasano and Travis
Kelce push Charles for second place.

Miami Dolphins

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD %

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD
%

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Ryan Tannehill

44

21

8

18.2

7

13

2

28.6

QB

Matt Moore

4

3

1

25

RB

Reggie Bush

20

37

3

15

6

12.2

5

2

40

RB

Daniel Thomas

21

38.9

4

19

4

8.2

2

0

0

RB

Lamar Miller

2

3.7

1

50

1

2

1

0

0

RB

Jorvorskie Lane

3

5.6

2

66.7

3

6.1

2

1

50

WR

Davone Bess

4

8.2

1

1

100

WR

Brian Hartline

11

22.4

1

0

0

WR

Anthony Armstrong

1

1.3

1

0

0

WR

Jabar Gaffney

2

4.1

0

0

WR

Marlon Moore

1

1.9

0

0

TE

Anthony Fasano

14

28.6

9

5

55.6

TE

Charles Clay

2

4.1

2

0

0

2012 Totals

48

24

9

18.75%

54

100.1

12

22.22%

48

97.2

24

9

24.69%

47.06

53.39

52.94

46.61

2011 Totals

66

31

16

24.24%

65

99.8

9

13.85%

66

99.9

31

16

51.61%

50.38

52.63

49.62

47.37

Coincidence of the year? Tannehill had as many red-zone pass attempts
in 2012 (44) as Matt
Moore did for Miami in 2011. For the second straight season,
the Dolphins were one of the more balanced offenses inside the 20
despite a coaching and philosophical change. The biggest difference
was the team didn’t have Brandon
Marshall as its default option in the red zone (21 targets in
2011) and saw its pass attempts inside the 20 drop from 66 to 48,
with Hartline only getting a slight bump (from eight to 11) despite
his breakout season. While Mike
Wallace isn’t strictly a downfield receiver, he also isn’t going
to step into Marshall’s red-zone role either, meaning Miami will
likely lean heavily on the running game inside the 20. As a result,
Dustin
Keller has a very good chance at collecting all of Fasano’s
red-zone work and then some. Miller has an outside shot at becoming
Miami’s feature back – which would mean stealing the goal-line work
from Thomas as well – but his audition for that role would be significantly
helped by the presence of free-agent FB Vonta
Leach, who is reportedly leaning towards signing with the team.
Miller should be the clear between-the-20s back at the very least
and is probably a solid bet to see more red-zone work than Bush
did over the last two years (29 touches in 2011, 25 in 2012).

Minnesota Vikings

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Christian Ponder

69

41

17

24.6

6

8.1

1

16.7

RB

Adrian Peterson

59

79.7

8

13.6

7

10.1

5

1

20

RB

Toby Gerhart

4

5.4

1

25

5

7.2

4

0

0

RB

Matt Asiata

1

1.4

1

0

0

WR

Percy Harvin

5

6.8

1

20

13

18.8

8

3

37.5

WR

Michael Jenkins

10

14.5

4

2

50

WR

Jarius Wright

5

7.2

3

2

66.7

WR

Stephen Burton

4

5.8

2

1

50

WR

Devin Aromashodu

3

4.3

0

0

TE

Kyle Rudolph

15

21.7

12

8

66.7

TE

Rhett Ellison

2

2.9

0

0

TE

John Carlson

2

2.9

1

0

0

TE

Allen Reisner

1

1.4

1

0

0

2012 Totals

69

41

17

24.64%

74

100

11

14.86%

68

98.2

41

17

41.75%

48.25

49.85

51.75

50.15

2011 Totals

59

38

14

23.73%

68

100

16

23.53%

58

98.5

38

14

36.84%

46.46

55.51

53.54

44.49

Ponder may not be the second coming of Fran Tarkenton, but he should
get a ton of credit for the ability he has shown as a red-zone passer
so far. After leading the league as a rookie in red-zone completion
percentage (77.8% in 2011), Ponder was more than solid (59.4) in
his second season. He improved despite the fact most of his supporting
cast – the receivers and tight ends behind Harvin and Rudolph –
did not carry their weight. Harvin was lost for the final seven
games, which made it virtually pointless for Minnesota to pass the
ball when teams could cover Rudolph. One might ask how Peterson
could score fewer red-zone touchdowns on more carries (8-for-59)
in 2012 after scoring 11 times on 34 red-zone carries in 2011, but
understand Peterson had an unreal year when it came to breaking
big plays (27 rushes for over 20 yards; Chris
Johnson is the only other player – with 22 in 2009 – besides
Peterson to break more than 20 such runs over the last 10 seasons).
History is unlikely to repeat itself in that regard again for Peterson,
if only because the Vikings should have more receiving talent available
to them this season. Rudolph will most likely lead the pack with
nearly 20 red-zone targets in 2013, with Jennings probably absorbing
most of Harvin’s passing-game workload. Rookie Cordarrelle
Patterson, who the Vikings should spoon-feed this season, would
make sense as a red-zone option to replace Jenkins’ 2012 numbers
inside the 20.

New England Patriots

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Tom Brady

81

49

24

29.6

7

6.1

4

57.1

RB

Stevan Ridley

58

50.4

12

20.7

1

1.2

0

0

RB

Danny Woodhead

19

16.5

4

21.1

8

9.9

5

3

60

RB

Shane Vereen

13

11.3

3

23.1

3

3.7

1

0

0

RB

Brandon Bolden

18

15.7

2

11.1

WR

Wes Welker

16

19.8

12

5

41.7

WR

Brandon Lloyd

13

16

9

2

22.2

WR

Julian Edelman

6

7.4

3

2

66.7

WR

Deion Branch

2

2.5

1

0

0

TE

Rob Gronkowski

17

21

10

8

80

TE

Aaron Hernandez

12

14.8

7

4

57.1

TE

Daniel Fells

1

1.2

0

0

TE

M Hoomanawanui

1

1.2

1

0

0

2012 Totals

81

49

24

29.63%

115

100

25

21.74%

80

98.7

49

24

49.65%

41.33

55.07

58.67

44.93

2011 Totals

99

57

29

29.29%

94

99

16

17.02%

98

99

57

29

50.88%

51.3

59.52

48.7

40.48

As impressive as the Patriots’ 193 red-zone plays in 2011 was, they
improved to 196 snaps in 2012. To put that number into some kind
of perspective, only the Giants (178) were relatively close to their
league-leading total. For further perspective, only a handful of
teams managed more than 140 snaps inside the 20. Thanks to an offseason
of change that no one could have imagined, fantasy owners cannot
expect 29.6% of Brady’s red-zone passes to end up in scores nor
can they anticipate New England running enough plays in scoring
territory to give four running backs at least 16 touches. The Patriots’
staggering 115 red-zone rushing attempts dwarfed the second-place
Giants (95), another number New England should not approach in 2013.
Vereen will probably be asked to assume Woodhead’s touches from
last year plus his own and then add some of Hernandez’s targets
as well, making it possible that he could be a top-end fantasy RB3
in PPR leagues. Danny
Amendola’s injury history suggests he won’t be able to pick
up all of Welker’s slack, meaning the Patriots are either going
to give a (hopefully) healthy Gronkowski 30 red-zone targets or
they just won’t be scoring nearly as much.

New Orleans Saints

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ
Pass %

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Drew Brees

96

60

31

32.3

1

2.3

1

100

QB

Chase Daniel

2

4.5

0

0

RB

Darren Sproles

5

11.4

1

20

19

19.8

14

5

35.7

RB

Mark Ingram

19

43.2

4

21.1

2

2.1

2

0

0

RB

Pierre Thomas

15

34.1

1

6.7

8

8.3

5

1

20

RB

Jed Collins

3

3.1

3

2

66.7

RB

Travaris Cadet

2

2.1

1

0

0

RB

Chris Ivory

2

4.5

0

0

WR

Marques Colston

22

22.9

16

9

56.3

WR

Lance Moore

14

14.6

7

4

57.1

WR

Joe Morgan

1

1

0

0

WR

Devery Henderson

1

1

0

0

TE

Jimmy Graham

16

16.7

8

7

87.5

TE

David Thomas

6

6.3

4

3

75

2012 Totals

96

60

31

32.29%

44

100

7

15.91%

94

97.9

60

31

61.29%

68.57

64.46

31.43

35.54

2011 Totals

96

62

30

31.25%

70

100

13

18.57%

94

97.9

62

30

48.39%

57.83

61.41

42.17

38.59

It shouldn’t take too long to identify the main difference between
the 2011 and 2012 Saints – red-zone rushing attempts. Brees threw
one more pass inside the 20, completed one fewer pass but threw
for one more touchdown than he did in 2011, but New Orleans’ 70
red-zone rushing attempts last season were substantially more than
the 44 it posted in 2012. Pierre
Thomas’ workload inside the 20 (20 touches) was a surprising
number, especially considering that he was nearly unusable in fantasy
for most of the season. Sproles missed three games due to injury,
but his 19 red-zone touches aren’t enough for a matchup-nightmare
player like him (he had 29 in 2011). Ingram hasn’t been particularly
productive in either of his first two seasons (a combined 8-for-42
at scoring touchdowns inside the 20), but he also hasn’t been healthy
for most of that time either. Along with Sproles’ drop-off, the
biggest surprise was the 10-target decline for Graham, who appeared
to lose most of his opportunities to Colston (nine more targets
than 2011). With Graham and Sproles healthy again, expect order
to be restored and both players to top 20 red-zone targets again
in 2013. One thing is clear in the second year of this study: if
Brees hits someone other than Sproles, Colston, Moore or Graham
inside the 20, it should come as a shock. The quartet has combined
for 144 of the 192 red-zone targets (75%) the Saints have managed
over the last two seasons.

New York Giants

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ
Pass %

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Eli Manning

82

37

18

22

5

5.3

0

0

QB

David Carr

1

0

0

0

RB

Ahmad Bradshaw

50

52.6

6

12

2

2.4

1

0

0

RB

Andre Brown

19

20

8

42.1

2

2.4

1

0

0

RB

David Wilson

15

15.8

2

13.3

3

3.6

1

1

100

RB

Da’Rel Scott

5

5.3

0

0

RB

Henry Hynoski

3

3.6

2

1

50

RB

Kregg Lumpkin

1

1.1

0

0

WR

Victor Cruz

18

21.7

10

6

60

WR

Rueben Randle

7

8.4

3

2

66.7

WR

Hakeem Nicks

17

20.5

6

1

16.7

WR

Ramses Barden

1

1.2

0

0

WR

Domenik Hixon

11

13.3

5

2

40

TE

Martellus Bennett

16

19.3

7

4

57.1

TE

Bear Pascoe

2

2.4

1

1

100

2012 Totals

83

37

18

21.69%

95

100.1

16

16.84%

82

98.8

37

18

37.45%

46.63

56.86

53.37

43.14

2011 Totals

71

36

15

21.13%

61

99.9

17

27.87%

71

100

36

15

41.67%

53.79

60.02

46.21

39.98

Likely in part because the Giants’ receivers and tight ends (namely
Nicks and Bennett) could not stay healthy last season, New York
ran the ball a lot in the red zone in 2012. Bradshaw’s 50 attempts
inside the 20 were tied with Michael
Turner for the seventh-most in the league and more than double
the total he had in 2011. In fact, the Giants ran the ball in the
red zone 34 more times last season. Surprisingly, even Wilson –
who was benched for much of the season due to fumbling concerns
– still managed 15 red-zone attempts, although most of them likely
came as a result of Brown’s season-ending leg injury. Assuming New
York can maintain the same kind of pace it has set over the past
two seasons (132 red-zone plays in 2011, 178 in 2012), the odds
are very good that Brown will be among the league leaders in attempts
and touchdowns inside the 20 while Wilson should probably anticipate
something nearing Bradshaw’s 2011 workload (24 carries, four receptions).
The Giants have maintained great red-zone balance in each of the
past two seasons, placing four receivers/tight ends in double figures
despite swapping out Mario
Manningham and Jake
Ballard for Domenik
Hixon and Martellus
Bennett. This year, the new WR3 and TE1 figure to be Randle
and Brandon
Myers, both of which should see about 10-12 red-zone targets
if recent history holds to form.

New York Jets

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD %

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Mark Sanchez

46

19

10

21.7

3

3.4

0

0

QB

Greg McElroy

2

1

1

50

3

3.4

0

0

QB

Tim Tebow

9

10.1

0

0

RB

Shonn Greene

47

52.8

8

17

RB

Bilal Powell

19

21.3

4

21.1

3

6.3

0

0

RB

Lex Hilliard

1

1.1

0

0

1

2.1

0

0

RB

Joe McKnight

6

6.7

0

0

WR

Stephen Hill

6

12.5

2

2

100

WR

Jeremy Kerley

1

1.1

0

0

10

20.8

6

2

33.3

WR

Santonio Holmes

2

4.2

2

1

50

WR

Braylon Edwards

5

10.4

1

1

50

WR

Chaz Schilens

6

12.5

2

1

50

WR

Jason Hill

1

2.1

1

1

100

WR

Clyde Gates

1

2.1

0

0

TE

Jeff Cumberland

6

12.5

3

2

66.7

TE

Dustin Keller

7

14.6

3

2

66.7

TE

Konrad Reuland

1

2.1

0

0

2012 Totals

48

20

11

22.92%

89

99.9

12

13.48%

49

102.2

20

12

19.57%

35.04

49.95

64.96

50.05

2011 Totals

79

42

21

26.58%

67

100

13

19.40%

79

101

42

21

50.00%

54.11

56.99

45.89

43.01

The Jets wanted to get back to the running game in 2012, but they
almost set football back about 50 years instead. The Jets somehow
managed 137 red-zone snaps, 89 of which were running plays. The
resulting 35:65 pass-run ratio was the second-most lopsided mark
in the league last season, even more so than the Texans. Greene
did little to justify his feature-back role or enhance his questionable
reputation as a short-yardage/goal-line back; an aging LaDainian
Tomlinson was slightly more successful than he was in 2011 and
Powell trumped him in 2012. Chris
Ivory should have little trouble improving on Greene’s 17% red-zone
scoring rate, assuming he can stay healthy all season. The passing
game was a joke for most of the season and little information can
actually be gathered from last year’s stats since the Jets moved
on from run-oriented OC Tony Sparano to West Coast offense aficionado
Marty Mornhinweg. Sanchez or rookie Geno
Smith will start – neither of which may end up being a good
fit for the new offense – and the receivers are either injured or
figure to be poor fits in the offense. While New York will almost
certainly be more balanced in 2013, it is hard to say it will be
any more effective.

Oakland Raiders

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Carson Palmer

63

33

13

20.6

6

13

1

16.7

QB

Terrelle Pryor

4

4

2

50

4

8.7

1

25

QB

Matt Leinart

5

1

0

0

RB

Darren McFadden

29

63

1

3.4

4

5.6

3

1

33.3

RB

Mike Goodson

3

6.5

0

0

1

1.4

1

0

0

RB

Marcel Reece

3

6.5

0

0

7

9.7

5

1

20

RB

Jeremy Stewart

1

2.2

0

0

WR

Denarius Moore

12

16.7

8

4

50

WR

D Heyward-Bey

10

13.9

6

2

33.3

WR

Rod Streater

11

15.3

3

1

33.3

WR

Juron Criner

6

8.3

2

1

50

WR

Derek Hagan

2

2.8

0

0

TE

Brandon Myers

13

18.1

8

4

50

TE

Richard Gordon

3

4.2

1

1

100

TE

David Ausberry

2

2.8

1

0

0

2012 Totals

72

38

15

20.83%

46

99.9

3

6.52%

71

98.8

38

15

38.46%

61.02

62.59

38.98

37.41

2011 Totals

44

23

10

22.73%

69

99.9

14

20.29%

43

97.8

23

10

43.48%

38.94

54.09

61.06

45.91

Similar to a team like the Saints, the Raiders can thank their defense
for their lopsided 72:46 pass-run ratio. Oakland was behind so often
on the scoreboard last year that Palmer nearly built his entire
stat line when his team was trailing (2,972 yards, 20 TDs and 11
interceptions), which probably made the Raiders long for the days
when Hue Jackson was calling the shots. Regardless, the team scrapped
the one-year zone-blocking scheme experiment and will return to
the man-blocking approach that McFadden thrived in under Jackson.
It’s doubtful Oakland will be good enough on offense this season
to match the 69 red-zone runs it had in 2011 (or get the 40 such
carries from McFadden that Michael
Bush had that season), but expect Oakland to be extremely run-heavy
when it does make it inside the 20. Matt
Flynn and Tyler
Wilson are each capable of being efficient in the red zone,
but new OC Greg Olson wasn’t hired to watch his unproven quarterbacks
take the ball out of McFadden’s hands. With Marcel
Reece likely to steal significant third-down snaps, the Raiders
will have no excuse not to ride McFadden as hard as they can in
the red zone.

Philadelphia
Eagles

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Michael Vick

44

20

9

20.5

8

14.8

1

12.5

QB

Nick Foles

27

11

4

14.8

3

5.6

1

33.3

RB

LeSean McCoy

23

42.6

2

8.7

9

12.7

6

3

50

RB

Bryce Brown

15

27.8

3

20

2

2.8

0

0

RB

Dion Lewis

2

3.7

1

50

RB

Stanley Havili

2

3.7

1

50

WR

Jeremy Maclin

16

22.5

8

3

37.5

WR

Riley Cooper

4

5.6

4

3

75

WR

DeSean Jackson

6

8.5

2

1

50

WR

Jason Avant

5

7

1

0

0

WR

Damaris Johnson

1

1.9

0

0

1

1.4

0

0

TE

Clay Harbor

9

12.7

5

2

40

TE

Brent Celek

10

14.1

5

1

20

TE

Evan Moore

2

2.8

0

0

2012 Totals

71

31

13

18.31%

54

100.1

9

16.67%

64

90.1

31

13

34.41%

56.8

59.9

43.2

40.1

2011 Totals

72

37

17

23.61%

85

100

17

20.00%

68

94.6

37

17

45.95%

45.86

56.56

54.14

43.44

McCoy is one example of how much red-zone production (and efficiency)
can change in one season. In 2011, 28% of his carries and 25% of
his targets inside the 20 ended up as touchdowns. One year later,
8.7% of his carries and 33.3% of his targets ended the same way.
However, the biggest difference was the lack of opportunities –
the lack of opportunities the Eagles’ battered offensive line gave
him as well as the 32 chances had in the red zone last year versus
the 62 he had in 2011. It is unlikely that any of the last two seasons’
worth of red-zone information will have much bearing on 2013, which
might be a good thing for Philadelphia fans that got tired of seeing
Andy Reid’s teams stall inside the 20 year after year. Even though
West Coast devotee Pat Shurmur is on staff as the offensive coordinator,
this should be HC Chip Kelly’s show in terms of how the offense
is operated. Based on his college days, that means the Eagles should
lead the league in snaps and supply fantasy owners with two running
backs worthy of starting status. Maclin should remain the top target
in the red zone regardless of whom Kelly decides on at quarterback,
but Celek’s days as a starting-caliber tight end in fantasy are
probably over – at least in Philly. Two wild-cards for sneaky red-zone
production are James
Casey and ex-Buc Arrelious
Benn, although McCoy and Brown should benefit the most from
the arrival of Kelly, assuming he doesn’t deviate much from his
days at Oregon.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Ben Roethlisberger

67

37

19

28.4

1

1.9

0

0

QB

Charlie Batch

2

2

1

50

QB

Byron Leftwich

4

1

0

0

RB

Jonathan Dwyer

24

44.4

2

8.3

1

1.4

0

0

RB

Isaac Redman

17

31.5

2

11.8

2

2.7

2

0

0

RB

Chris Rainey

2

3.7

2

100

2

2.7

0

0

RB

R Mendenhall

4

7.4

0

0

1

1.4

1

1

100

RB

Baron Batch

3

5.6

1

33.3

RB

Will Johnson

4

5.5

1

1

100

WR

Antonio Brown

1

1.9

0

0

9

12.3

6

4

66.7

WR

Mike Wallace

1

1.9

0

0

17

23.3

10

3

30

WR

Plaxico Burress

2

2.7

1

1

100

WR

Emmanuel Sanders

5

6.8

3

1

33.3

WR

Jerricho Cotchery

4

5.5

2

0

0

TE

Heath Miller

19

26

12

7

58.3

TE

Leonard Pope

2

2.7

2

2

100

TE

David Paulson

1

1.4

0

0

2012 Totals

73

40

20

27.40%

53

98.3

7

13.21%

69

94.4

40

20

42.37%

57.94

58.22

42.06

41.78

2011 Totals

58

28

15

25.86%

67

100.1

12

17.91%

58

99.9

28

15

53.57%

46.4

57.24

53.6

42.76

Shockingly, Wallace tied the likes of Calvin
Johnson, Hakeem
Nicks, Reggie
Wayne and Roddy
White with 17 targets inside the 20. Wallace also scored more
red-zone touchdowns (three) than Johnson (two) and Nicks (one),
which was another stunner. But with the speedster off to Miami and
Miller’s status uncertain coming off an ACL injury, the Steelers
need Brown and second-round selection Le’Veon Bell to pick up the
slack in a big way. Brown is a good bet to assume Wallace’s 17 targets,
but don’t be surprised if Bell commands turns a sizable chunk of
Miller’s targets in the passing game into rushing attempts – assuming
Miller isn’t ready to start the season – while also taking on most
of Dwyer and Redman’s red-zone workload from a season ago. Pittsburgh’s
willingness to incorporate outside zone runs behind what should
be a very capable and athletic offensive line should result in more
scoring opportunities for Bell than the Steelers had last season,
but it should be a different story in the passing game. Expect a
fairly equal distribution for red-zone chances behind Miller, with
no player except him managing more than 12 targets.

San Diego Chargers

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD %

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD
%

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Philip Rivers

61

40

18

29.5

6

11.1

0

0

RB

Jackie Battle

16

29.6

3

18.8

3

4.9

3

1

33.3

RB

Ryan Mathews

15

27.8

1

6.7

3

4.9

3

0

0

RB

Ronnie Brown

4

7.4

0

0

12

19.7

10

0

0

RB

Curtis Brinkley

10

18.5

0

0

2

3.3

1

0

0

RB

Le’Ron McClain

2

3.7

0

0

1

1.6

1

0

0

WR

Malcom Floyd

10

16.4

5

4

80

WR

Danario Alexander

3

4.9

2

2

100

WR

Robert Meachem

1

1.9

0

0

2

3.3

1

1

100

WR

Eddie Royal

3

4.9

1

1

100

TE

Antonio Gates

10

16.4

7

6

85.7

TE

Dante Rosario

7

11.5

4

3

75

TE

Randy McMichael

1

1.6

1

0

0

2012 Totals

61

40

18

29.51%

54

100

4

7.41%

57

93.4

39

18

41.76%

53.04

56.23

46.96

43.77

2011 Totals

64

30

14

21.88%

68

99.9

15

22.06%

60

93.8

30

14

46.67%

48.48

58.4

51.52

41.6

Norv Turner’s final season in charge turned out to be a disastrous
one, if only because “bellcow” Mathews couldn’t stay healthy and
the offensive line couldn’t block. Rivers was actually considerably
more efficient in the red zone than he was the previous year (40-of-61
with 18 touchdowns in 2012; 30-of-64 with 14 scores in 2011). But
the biggest losses were those of Vincent
Jackson to Tampa Bay, Vincent
Brown to injury and the continued decline from Gates. It wasn’t
until Alexander arrived near midseason that San Diego had someone
that could seriously threaten a defense in the red zone – and even
he was underutilized. New HC Mike McCoy and OC Ken Whisenhunt’s
offense promises to be built around the short passing game, something
that should benefit the Chargers’ stable of big receivers while
also helping the team’s below-average offensive line. The most interesting
dynamic to watch may be how Danny
Woodhead is used inside the 20. Mathews may get his shot to
secure the goal-line role, but McCoy may have no other choice but
to lean on Woodhead when he wants to pass and McClain when he wants
to run in the red zone if Mathews cannot stay healthy yet again.
As a result of the questionable running back situation, the Chargers
may wind up being one of the most pass-heavy offenses inside the
20 – partly because they have the big receivers needed to pull it
off and partly out of necessity.

Seattle Seahawks

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD %

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD
%

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Russell Wilson

59

34

18

30.5

12

16.7

3

25

QB

Matt Flynn

3

1

0

0

RB

Marshawn Lynch

51

70.8

7

13.7

2

3.2

2

1

50

RB

Leon Washington

2

2.8

1

50

0

0

0

0

RB

Robert Turbin

7

9.7

0

0

2

3.2

2

0

0

RB

Michael Robinson

5

8.1

3

2

66.7

WR

Sidney Rice

13

21

7

4

57.1

WR

Golden Tate

12

19.4

9

4

44.4

WR

Doug Baldwin

7

11.3

4

2

50

WR

Braylon Edwards

4

6.5

1

0

0

WR

Charly Martin

1

1.6

0

0

TE

Zach Miller

6

9.7

5

2

40

TE

Anthony McCoy

4

6.5

2

2

100

2012 Totals

62

35

18

29.03%

72

100

11

15.28%

56

90.5

35

17

38.67%

46.27

43.04

53.73

56.96

2011 Totals

50

25

9

18.00%

57

100.1

12

21.05%

50

100

25

9

36.00%

46.73

49.85

53.27

50.15

To almost no one’s surprise, a rookie quarterback was able to top
a Tarvaris
Jackson-led offense. To almost everyone’s surprise, Wilson was
one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the league in his first
season. Seattle’s running game was actually more efficient in the
red zone two years ago than last year (21.05% RuTD percentage in
2011, 15.28 in 2012), but Wilson’s 30.5% PaTD rate made him only
one of four quarterbacks to top 30% last season (Rodgers, Brees
and Peyton
Manning were the others). With his athleticism and upgraded
supporting cast (buoyed by the trade for Percy
Harvin), don’t look for that number to decline much in 2013,
if only because the Seahawks don’t have any plans to change their
smashmouth ways. Seattle doesn’t seem likely to be one of the teams
that will attempt to go up-tempo since it has such a rugged defense,
so don’t look for significantly more red-zone plays than the 134
the team had last year. Instead, Harvin will probably steal most
of the targets that went to Baldwin, Edwards and McCoy last year.
Tate has managed 12 red-zone targets in each of the last two years
and HC Pete Carroll wants him more involved in the offense, so it
is possible that Rice takes a back seat to his smaller counterparts.

San Francisco
49ers

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ Pass
%

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Colin Kaepernick

29

14

5

17.2

15

18.1

4

26.7

QB

Alex Smith

17

12

8

47.1

2

2.4

0

0

RB

Frank Gore

35

42.2

6

17.1

3

6.5

3

1

33.3

RB

Kendall Hunter

12

14.5

2

16.7

RB

Anthony Dixon

9

10.8

2

22.2

RB

Brandon Jacobs

1

1.2

0

0

RB

LaMichael James

6

7.2

0

0

1

2.2

1

0

0

RB

Bruce Miller

2

2.4

0

0

2

4.3

2

0

0

WR

Michael Crabtree

10

21.7

5

5

100

WR

M Manningham

5

10.9

5

1

20

WR

Randy Moss

9

19.6

2

1

50

WR

Kyle Williams

1

1.2

0

0

4

8.7

2

0

0

TE

Vernon Davis

5

10.9

3

3

100

TE

Delanie Walker

6

13

3

2

66.7

TE

Garrett Celek

1

2.2

0

0

2012 Totals

46

26

13

28.26%

83

100

14

16.87%

46

100

26

13

26.00%

35.66

46.98

64.34

53.02

2011 Totals

61

25

9

14.75%

82

99.9

13

15.85%

61

99.9

25

9

36.00%

42.96

55.73

57.04

44.27

Kaepernick didn’t take over until Week 11, which obviously led to
a huge spike in Crabtree’s usage inside the 20…right? On one hand,
he saw at least one red-zone target in each game over the final
four contests of the season. But contrary to popular belief, Crabtree
was targeted only once in the red zone in the first three weeks
following Kaepernick’s rise to the top of the depth chart and finished
2012 with five fewer targets. The upside? Every catch Crabtree made
in the red zone was a touchdown. Like Houston, San Francisco sported
an extremely lopsided pass-run ratio (46:83) but was successful
in doing so because each team had top-flight defenses that allowed
them to run the ball throughout the game in just about every contest.
The Niners will be hard-pressed to match last season’s success in
the red zone – a relatively ho-hum 20.9 % of their red-zone snaps
resulted in touchdowns – but Kaepernick averaged exactly five red-zone
plays per game in his seven starts, which works out to 80 over a
full season. (That’s a total only nine other quarterbacks reached
in 2012.) As for what it all means in 2013, San Francisco should
remain a run-heavy team inside the 20, with Anquan
Boldin and Davis the only two players within an earshot of double-digit
red-zone targets.

St. Louis Rams

Pos

Player

Att

Comp

PaTD

PaTD %

RuAtt

RuAtt %

RuTD

RuTD
%

Tar

Tar %

Rec

ReTD

ReTD %

RZ
Pass %

Pass %

RZ Run
%

Run %

QB

Sam Bradford

60

33

13

21.7

4

10.3

1

25

QB

Kellen Clemens

1

0

0

0

RB

Steven Jackson

27

69.2

4

14.8

7

11.3

3

0

0

RB

Daryl Richardson

7

17.9

0

0

4

6.5

3

0

0

RB

Isaiah Pead

1

2.6

0

0

WR

Austin Pettis

9

14.5

5

4

80

WR

Danny Amendola

12

19.4

8

3

37.5

WR

Brandon Gibson

8

12.9

4

3

75

WR

Brian Quick

7

11.3

2

1

50

WR

Chris Givens

3

4.8

2

0

0

WR

Steve Smith

4

6.5

2

0

0

TE

Lance Kendricks

6

9.7

4

2

50

TE

Matthew Mulligan

1

1.6

1

1

100

2012 Totals

61

33

13

21.31%

39

100

5

12.82%

61

98.5

34

14

34.52%

61

57.6

39

42.4

2011 Totals

43

13

5

11.63%

29

99.8

6

20.69%

42

97.8

13

5

38.46%

59.72

59.62

40.28

40.38

Knowing what we know now about the 2013 Rams, one can’t help but
wonder if HC Jeff Fisher and OC Brian Schottenheimer weren’t preparing
for a pass-happy attack a year early. Bradford nearly doubled his
red-zone attempts (from 32 to 60) despite the fact that higher-quality
receivers should have opened the door for Jackson to see significantly
more opportunities at the goal line. Amendola and Pettis essentially
assumed the lead roles inside the 20 from Brandon
Lloyd and Danario
Alexander while three other players saw as many as six red-zone
targets. With first-round selection Tavon
Austin and Jared
Cook joining the party, St. Louis will probably be getting more
than 100 snaps in the red zone, but it would be a shocker if the
Rams decided to deviate from their 61:39 pass-run ratio in that
area. In fact, it could get as high as 65:35 considering the team
is unlikely to give rookie Zac
Stacy more touches – on a percentage basis – than it did Jackson.
Austin and Cook should get the most work and see between 12-15 targets,
while players like Pettis, Quick and Givens may all reach double
digits as well.