NewEnergyNews

Gleanings from the web and the world, condensed for convenience, illustrated for enlightenment, arranged for impact...

While the OFFICE of President remains in highest regard at NewEnergyNews, this administration's position on the climate crisis makes it impossible to regard THIS president with respect. Below is the NewEnergyNews theme song until 2020.

TODAY’S STUDY: THE JOBS BONANZA IN INDIA SOLAR

Solar energy projects create green jobs and provide a boost to India’s developing economy. In a country where
keeping up with the growing population’s increasing energy demands is daunting, harnessing this clean and
renewable energy source can help meet energy needs in a sustainable way while providing new economic
opportunities.1 Solar photovoltaic (PV) is recognized as creating more jobs per unit of energy produced than any
other energy source; thus it potentially represents a much needed solution to unemployment in the face of India’s
burgeoning population and labor force.

Currently a dearth of data exists on jobs created by
the solar energy market in India. Unlike international
counterparts, Indian solar companies do not report job
creation numbers in press releases. An analysis of solar job
creation thus far shows that this information gap needs to be
addressed to reveal the full range of benefits of a successful
solar PV market in India. Employment generation numbers
can encourage broad political and public support for stronger
solar financing and policies.

India experienced early success with the launch of its
National Solar Mission (NSM or Mission), with solar PV
power’s installed capacity increasing from 17.8 megawatts
(MW) in early 2010 to approximately 2,650 MW in March
2014.3

As India ramps up its solar installations at a rapid rate
during the second phase of its Mission, an opportunity exists
to increase public support for this potentially transformative
energy resource. One easy way to demonstrate the local
benefits of clean energy is to publicize job creation numbers.

This report examines available data about employment
generation in the Indian solar sector and analyzes the results
of an industry employment survey distributed to solar
companies. This report also examines existing solar policies
and draws connections to employment to make specific
recommendations on how best to shape policies to leverage
the employment opportunity presented by the solar PV
market in India.

1. Solar energy creates employment opportunities
in India. Based on our initial primary research, we
estimated that the solar market generated 23,884
cumulative jobs in the solar industry from 2011 to 2014
(solely from commissioned projects currently producing
electricity). The construction and commissioning phase
generates the most employment for a PV project.

3. Companies need to support the solar market by
providing their projects’ job creation numbers. By
tracking and reporting solar energy jobs numbers,
business and policy makers can formulate better policies
and programs and demonstrate the importance of
renewable energy to the local economy.

Our research and analysis confirm that solar energy
projects create many local jobs in India—both one-time
jobs during the pre-commissioning construction phase and
permanent operations and maintenance positions over the
multi-decade life of the solar plant. Supporting the growth of
the solar industry and the reporting of jobs numbers by local
businesses can continue this promising trend. A robust solar
market is instrumental in creating jobs in India’s developing
economy in addition to providing renewable energy and
increasing energy access.

In 2010, the Indian central government launched the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (NSM) to strive to
make India a global leader in the solar energy market. The mission had multiple aims, including addressing India’s
energy security challenges by creating a robust solar power market, and establishing India as a leader in the solar PV
manufacturing industry.

Despite significantly growing installed solar capacity in
2013 to a total of more than 2.6 gigawatts (GW), India’s solar
market is slowing.5

Delays in both NSM’s Phase 2 and state
solar allocations have chilled the market. International trade
disputes and anti-dumping duties on U.S. and Chinese solar
imports are also contributing to the slump.6

Even with the delays, enthusiasm for the solar market
remains high. Prospective project developers submitted
projects worth more than 700 MW for the 250 MW allocation
for the Phase 2, Batch 1 auction in late 2013. In July 2014, the
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) announced
a second Phase II, batch 2 auction for solar PV power.7
Ambitious plans have also been announced for four mega
solar plants totalling 15,000 MW, though state government
concerns may stall these plans.8

The solar ecosystem created
during the NSM’s inaugural phase is continuing to incubate
industry growth. Following the renewed momentum created
by Phase 2’s strong launch, now is the time for strong
leadership to reenergize the domestic solar market and
recognize the spectrum of benefits that could result from
a robust solar market ecosystem—included much needed
employment opportunities in India.

“In the first six months of 2014, 4,350 megawatts (MW) of new utility-scale generating capacity came online, according to preliminary data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration…Natural gas plants, almost all combined-cycle plants, made up more than half of the additions, while solar plants contributed more than a quarter and wind plants around one-sixth…Utility-scale capacity additions in the first half of 2014 were 40% less than…in the same period last year. Natural gas additions were down by about half, while solar additions were up by nearly 70%. Wind additions in the first half of 2014 were more than double the level in the first half of 2013…Florida added the most capacity (1,210 MW), all of it natural gas combined-cycle capacity. California, with the second-largest level of additions, added just under 1,100 MW, of which about 77% was solar and 21% was wind, with the remaining additions from natural gas and other sources. Utah and Texas combined for another 1,000 MW, nearly all of it natural gas combined-cycle capacity with some solar and wind capacity in Texas…”click here for more

“Solar cells can easily reach temperatures as high as 55 degrees Celsius when the sun's rays beat down on them. These racing temperatures not only reduce their efficiency when converting the sun's energy into electricity but also lower their lifespan…Shanhui Fan and his team at Stanford University have developed a layer of silica glass which is specially patterned to deflect unwanted heat radiation when added onto the surface of regular solar cells…Miniscule pyramid and cone-shaped structures are embedded into the glass and redirect any infrared radiation which causes heat, preventing the solar cells from heating up. But visible light rays can still pass through to generate electricity…The team are creating prototypes and experimenting their efficiency with hopes of demonstrating them outdoors soon.”click here for more

“…[In the United States], efforts to tap the power of coastal winds have gone nowhere because of environmental concerns, bureaucratic tangles and political opposition. That may soon change. Ecological studies indicate that carefully planned wind farms should not significantly harm birds or marine mammals. And business and politicians are increasingly interested in exploring and investing in offshore wind power…Including harder-to-reach deep-water sites, the offshore territory of the United States has the capacity to generate an estimated 4,200 gigawatts of electricity, enough to supply four times the nation’s current needs…

“…Cape Wind has already broken new ground by being the first US offshore wind project to complete a major environmental assessment [and is near construction]…For developers, the big question is whether it makes economic sense…[E]xtra effort associated with meeting environmental regulations or preparing for severe storms will increase the cost of construction, at a time when wind farms have to compete with a bounty of cheap natural gas…Experts say that the environmental and technical challenges for offshore wind are surmountable. The biggest barrier at the moment is the tangled fabric of policy rules that slow projects and provide insufficient certainty for developers and investors…”

Monday, September 29, 2014

TODAY’S STUDY: ADDING UP THE CLIMATE CHANGE NUMBERS

The PwC Low Carbon Economy Index (LCEI) calculates the
rate of decarbonisation of the global economy that is
needed to limit warming to 2°C. We base our analysis on
the carbon budget estimated by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for 2°C.

Emissions per unit of GDP fell in 2013 by 1.2%, marginally
better than the average decrease of 0.9% since 2000. But
with such limited progress in decoupling emissions growth
from GDP growth, the gap between what we are doing and
what we need to do has again grown, for the sixth year
running. The average annual rate of decarbonisation
required for the rest of this century for us to stay within the
two degree budget now stands at 6.2%. This is double the
decarbonisation rate achieved in the UK during the rapid
shift to gas-fired electricity generation in the nineties.

While negotiations focus on policies to limit warming to
2°C, based on the decarbonisation rates of the last six years,
we are headed for 4°C of warming in global average
temperature by the end of the century, with severe
consequences identified by the IPCC for ecosystems,
livelihoods and economies.

PwC’s Low Carbon Economy Index (LCEI) has looked at the
progress of the G20 economies against a 2°C global carbon
budget since 2009. Currently, economic growth is closely
coupled with carbon emissions and increased greenhouse gas
(GHG) concentrations. The IPCC’s latest assessment report
(AR5) has reinforced the message that, without the rapid
decoupling of GDP and emissions, climate change will present
widespread threats to business and society.

AR5 sets out four carbon budgets that correspond to different
degrees of warming by the end of the 21st century. The
current consensus target by governments, convened under the
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is
to limit global average temperature increase to 2°C. To meet
this warming scenario (known as RCP2.6 in AR5), cumulative
fossil fuel CO2 emissions between 2010 and 2100 need to be
no more than 270GtC (or around 990GtCO2).

But while all governments at the UNFCCC reiterate the goal of
limiting warming to 2°C, implementation has fallen short of
this goal. Current total annual energy-related emissions are
just over 30 GtCO2 and still rising, a carbon ‘burn rate’ that
would deplete the carbon budget for the entire century within
the next 20 years. The IPCC has warned that our current
trajectory will lead to warming estimated to range from 3.7 -- 4.8°C over the 21st century. It anticipates severe adverse
impacts on people and ecosystems through water stress, food
security threats, coastal inundation, extreme weather events,
ecosystem shifts and species extinction on land and sea. At the
higher levels of warming, the IPCC states that these impacts
are likely to be pervasive, systemic, and irreversible.

Against this backdrop of gloom, the decarbonisation results
reported in this years’s LCEI bring a glimmer of hope, with
growth in absolute emissions of only 1.8%, the slowest rate of
emissions growth since 2008-2009, when carbon emissions
fell as a result of the global recession. The reduction in carbon
intensity is also the highest since 2008, standing at 1.2%,
compared to 0.8% in 2012. Nevertheless it is still only one
fifth of the decarbonisation rate required. Currently, the LCEI
shows the global economy would need to cut its
carbon intensity by 6.2% a year, every year from
now to 2100, more than five times its current rate.

The physical impacts of climate change will vary from country
to country, and some countries may find that the impacts
within its own borders are relatively limited or in some cases
benign. But in a highly globalised economy, no country is
likely to be spared as the impacts of climate change ripple
around the world, affecting interdependent supply chains and
flows of people and investment.

Indirect impacts of climate change

The UK, for example, will face adverse domestic impacts in
the form of extreme weather events such as flooding,
storms and heat waves, as well as some negative impacts on
agricultural production. It is also projected to see some
benefits, through increased agricultural yields for some
produce, and lower winter mortality. But the international
impacts of climate change to the UK could be an order of
magnitude larger than domestic threats and opportunities.
The UK for example, holds around £10 trillion of assets
abroad, with the flow of investment by the UK into other
countries exceeding £1 trillion in 2011 alone. Physical or
economic damages in the countries that the UK has invested
in will therefore flow back to the UK – and some of the
sectors that the UK has invested in have already identified
vulnerability to climate impacts, for example food and
beverages, mining and power generation. Many of the UK’s
largest retailers are now conducting risk assessments of
long-term climate trends and the implications for their
supply chains and business operations. Other sectors, such
as manufacturing and financial services, could be affected
by both the physical impacts of climate change and
regulatory pressures on carbon-intensive assets. Extreme
weather-related events beyond UK borders in the past year
alone have shown that these losses can be significant.

In last year’s LCEI we calculated that the global economy
needed to reduce carbon intensity (the amount of carbon
emissions per unit of GDP) by 6.0% a year to limit warming to
2°C. Overall, we have fallen far short of the global target for
the sixth successive year, achieving only a 1.2% reduction in
2013. Having failed to achieve the global decarbonisation rate
of 6.0%, the global challenge we face going forward is now
tougher still. The path to 2100 requires an annual global
decarbonisation rate averaging 6.2%. But the global result
masks striking variations in performance at the national level.

An unexpected champion surpassed the decarbonisation
target – Australia recorded a decarbonisation rate of 7.2%
over 2013, putting it top of the table for the second year in a
row. Three other countries – the UK, Italy and China
– achieved a decarbonisation rate of between 4% and 5%. Five
countries, however, increased their carbon intensity over
2013: France, the US, India, Germany and Brazil.

One glimmer of hope lies in the performance of emerging
markets, with this year seeing the reversal of an emissions
trend between the G7 and E7 economies. Since LCEI analysis
started, the G7 has consistently outpaced the E7 in reducing
carbon intensity, but in 2013, for the first time, the E7
averaged a 1.7% reduction in carbon intensity, while the G7
managed only 0.2%. This indicates the possibility of the E7
maintaining economic growth while slowing the rate of
growth in their emissions. As the main manufacturing hubs of
the world, the E7 economies currently have total carbon
emissions 1.5 times larger than that of the G7, a figure
expected to grow. This possibility of the E7 decoupling of
growth from carbon is vital for global progress towards
carbon targets.

Ups and downs: Analysing the results…Can renewables compete with coal by the 2020s?..

The international negotiations leading up to Paris 2015 are a
critical chance to ensure collective agreement on targets to
keep temperature increases within 2°C. The foundation of a
successful deal will be a set of emissions pledges that are
adequate to maintain global temperature increases below 2°C.

The IPCC, and others such as UNEP, have estimated the
required carbon emissions levels under the different
concentration pathways. The IPCC’s latest report on
mitigation has also put forward, based on a range of models, a
possible breakdown of the carbon budget by regions14. The UN
initiative referred to as the Deep Decarbonisation Pathways
Project also considered plausible decarbonisation pathways
for 15 countries15.

The LCEI takes these breakdowns as a basis to outline the
potential reductions required by these countries, and their
ongoing decarbonisation rates. The challenge is considerable.

Overall, to stay within the global carbon budget, annual
energy-related emissions by the G20 bloc need to fall by
one-third by 2030 and just over half by 2050. Much of the
debate in climate negotiations has centred on responsibility
and how to share the burden between developed and
developing countries, as defined in 1992 in the UNFCCC.
Regardless of how the carbon budget is split, it is clear that
both developed and emerging economies face the challenge of
growing their economies whilst radically curbing emissions.

The timeline is also unforgiving. The IPCC and others have
estimated that global emissions will need to peak around
2020 to meet a 2°C budget. This means that emissions from
the developed economies need to be consistently falling, and
emissions from major developing countries will also have to
start declining from 2020 onwards.

Specifically, to stay within a 2°C budget, the G7 needs to
further reduce its absolute carbon emissions by 44% by 2030
and 75% by 2050 compared to 2010 levels. Even if the 2020
pledges are met, this means its carbon intensity needs to fall
by 5.9% from 2020 to 2030, and by 6.0% from 2030 to 2050.

For the E7 economies, meeting the 2020 pledges is just the
first step. The required carbon emissions reduction from 2020
to 2030 will have to be sharp and immediate, equivalent to a
carbon intensity reduction of 8.5% per annum. If this is
achieved, then further carbon intensity reductions of about
5.3% a year to 2050 could take the E7 to emission levels
compatible with limiting climate change to a 2°C warming. In
this case, carbon intensity levels will be comparable to those
of the G7 by 2050…

With timing of the essence, there are a number of
developments to watch out for ahead of the climate talks in
Paris 2015 that look to be preconditions of success:

• Big footprint leadership: The outcome of the New
York UN Climate Leaders’ Summit, hosted by Ban Ki-moon
on September 23 2014, will be highly influential. Strong
attendance by heads of state, and strong calls for increased
ambition and action – whether jointly or individually – will
provide legitimacy to the efforts of their negotiating teams
in Lima and beyond, while encouraging governments to
put forward more ambitious targets.

• INDC pledges: The emissions reduction pledges
submitted by countries by March 2015 are the building
blocks of a deal. How the renewed pledges add up will
shape the likely carbon emissions trajectory for the world
for the next decades. These pledges can be increased after
Paris, and a new UN process would likely be introduced to
enable this, but the INDCs will demonstrate the short-to-medium term willingness of governments to decarbonise.

• ‘Draft decisions’ papers: laying down the policy
foundations: Specific policies, what’s in and what’s out,
will be the battleground for negotiators in the next
months. The more that is locked down before Paris, for
example in the 2014 summit in Lima, Peru, the more likely
it is that there could be an international deal. Draft
decision papers that secure at least a high level policy
consensus will therefore be critical. Working groups of the
UNFCCC process are gearing up activities by making
public some possible options for the Paris 2015 deal.

• A change in the carbon rhetoric? Above all, as some
renewables appear to approach cost parity, and as the costs
of climate inaction – from flooding to food insecurity - appear to grow, the strongest determinant of success will
be the broadening of the emerging recognition by both
business and political leaders that taking decisive action to
mitigate climate change is not a cost, it is a pre-condition
for sustained economic growth.

The next two annual UN climate summits in Lima and Paris
will indicate the direction in which the world is headed on
climate change. Where we are now is clear: inadequate
pledges, inadequately implemented. If these four indicators
above of success are met, though, the picture could start to
look different. The stage is then set for one meeting to take us
off the path to 4°C, beyond the present promises of 3°C,
towards a policy framework for a future where warming is
limited to 2°C.

“At the United Nations today, President Obama gave a decent speech about climate change. He hit a number of key points…[saying that climate change is ‘the most important and consequential issue of the 21st Century’ and though the science is undeniable], we are dangerously close to condemning the next generation to a future that is ‘beyond our capacity to repair’ …[and, more importantly, acknowledging that] ‘there will be interests that will be resistant to action’…[and concerns that] ‘if we act and other countries don’t, that we will be at an economic disadvantage’…[the U.S. will act but it] can only succeed in combating climate change ‘if we are joined in this effort by every nation, developed and developing alike. Nobody gets a pass…’

“…And yet, because any international climate treaty requires a two-thirds majority of the Senate, the administration is reduced to exploring ways of pursuing a treaty that isn’t legally binding and wouldn’t require Senate ratification…Environmentalists have worked hard to prove that climate can matter in electoral politics, but…[the Senate] will probably be unstable and closely contested, with very narrow majorities in either direction, for years to come…”

“…[The 8,000 page] long-awaitedDesert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan…could reshape the desert's energy landscape and set aside millions of acres…The plan is likely to transform how solar, wind, geothermal and transmission projects are sited across the desert. It designates zones for renewable energy development and conservation across more than 22.5 million acres of public and private land in the Mojave and Colorado/Sonoran deserts, spanning seven California counties…The plan's ‘preferred alternative’ sets aside more than 2 million acres for renewable energy development in an effort to provide space for up to 20,000 megawatts of new generation by 2040. Solar, wind and geothermal projects would be fast-tracked…[through] streamlined environmental review and permitting processes…

“…[It also] designates more than 6.1 million acres as federal conservation lands, on top of the more than 7.6 million acres of pre-existing conservation lands within the study area. Renewable energy development would be prohibited or extremely limited in these areas…[The plan outlines] six potential roadmaps [including a preferred alternative] for land use in the desert…[Few areas were opened to new wind overall and could end wind development in the state, according to California Wind Energy Association Director Nancy Rader, while environmental groups asked if 20,000 megawatts of new renewable energy development in the desert will be needed]…”

"The high-cost and low efficiency of solar cells could partly be overcome with new designs by Glint Photonics which focus and capture more incoming sunlight to generate electricity…[S]elf-tracking solar concentrators can change their reflectivity depending on the direction of incoming sunlight. As the sun moves and the direction its rays come in from also changes, the concentrators track this…and remove reflectivity in just that region of their surface, enabling the light to…be concentrated and trapped to reach a solar cell…[This is usually done] with specially constructed and placed mirrors and lenses which need to be constantly moved as the sun rises and descends across the sky…Removing their need and increasing the amount of sunlight captured could dramatically reduce the cost of solar power…The design is currently a proof-of-concept and the team are working on improving efficiency…”click here for more

Friday, September 26, 2014

HIGH WATER RISING – EVERYWHERE

“Every global shore touches the same ocean, and the ocean is rising…147 to 216 million people live on land that will be below sea level or regular flood levels by the end of the century, assuming emissions of heat-trapping gases continue on their current trend. By far the largest group — 41 to 63 million — lives in China…But even these figures may be two to three times too low, meaning as many as 650 million people may be threatened…[Using more state-of-the-art methods], we found that global elevation data led to [underestimates by a factor of 3 to 4], whereas global population data led to overestimates by a factor of 1.6 to 1.8. The net effect of global data was underestimation by a factor of 2 to 3…[That could mean] 300 to 650 million people live on land that will be submerged or exposed to chronic flooding, by 2100, under current emission trends.
Higher-quality global data — and in particular, elevation data — is needed to help resolve those figures…”click here for more

MOROCCO WIND BOOM COMING

“General Electric Company will supply wind turbines for a renewable energy project in North Africa. Developed by Energie Eolienne du Maroc (EEM), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Nareva Holding, the 100MW wind farm will be located near Akhfennir, southern Morocco…The 56 wind turbines will help meet the country’s renewable energy goals, while offering EEM economic returns…The contract complements the government of Morocco’s [Renewable Energy Law and] Integrated Wind Energy Project, which aims to generate 2000MW of wind power by 2020…Authorities have earmarked $3bn for the project…The power generated by the plant is intended to support industrial companies under Morocco’s Power Purchase Agreement…Akhfennir is one of the wind farms in the first phase of the Moroccan Integrated Wind Energy project to produce over 720MW…Five new sites are being planned to utilise Morocco’s strong potential in wind power, estimated at 25,000MW…”click here for more

INDIA BOOSTS ITS SOLAR BUILD

“…[India’s] federal administration in New Delhi and five state governments will work to set up 25 solar parks, which could increase the total installed solar capacity by nearly 10 times nationwide to about 20,000 megawatts…At least 10 of the parks are likely to be set up over the next year, along with supporting infrastructure including transmission lines, while the remaining 15 are expected to be completed in the next four or five years…Blessed with an abundance of sunshine, India has accelerated its solar-power plan since the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who oversaw one of the country's most successful solar programs in the western state of Gujarat…Solar power accounts for about 1% of India's energy mix, according to the government, and faces challenges including land acquisition. Power generation costs exceed those of thermal coal, though they have fallen sharply over the past three years. With its plans to develop solar parks, the government is betting that removing some of the pain of buying land will attract investors…”click here for more

ABU DHABI BUYS A PIECE OF NORWAY’S STAKE IN UK OFFSHORE WIND

“Masdar Abu Dhabi Future Energy Co. agreed to buy half of Statoil ASA’s stake in the 402-megawatt Dudgeon wind project off the coast of eastern England as it steps up its investments in wind power…[Masdar will have] a 35 percent stake in the project valued at 525 million pounds ($860 million)…Statoil, which will operate the plant, retains a 35 percent stake, and fellow Norwegian company Statkraft AS owns the remainder…Dudgeon is the second offshore wind investment for Masdar in the U.K., where it also owns a 20 percent stake in the 630-megawatt London Array…

“Statoil and Statkraft said on July 1 they would proceed with the 1.5 billion-pound Dudgeon project after the government awarded it a contract guaranteeing the power price the wind farm will get. Offshore construction is due to begin in 2016, with the project set for commissioning the following year…Britain is the biggest offshore wind market, with more installed turbines at sea than the rest of the world put together. The government says capacity may grow to 10 gigawatts by 2020 from about 3.6 gigawatts now, and it’s relying on the technology to help bring down emissions and meet its European Union target…”

Thursday, September 25, 2014

THE PRIVATE SECTOR FACES CLIMATE CHANGE

"With political efforts to slow global warming moving at a tortuous pace, some of the world’s largest companies are stepping into the void, pledging more support for renewable energy, greener supply chains and fresh efforts to stop the destruction of the world’s tropical forests…Forty companies, among them Kellogg, L’Oréal and Nestlé, [just] signed a declaration…pledging to help cut tropical deforestation in half by 2020 and stop it entirely by 2030. They included several of the largest companies handling palm oil, the production of which has resulted in rampant destruction of old-growth forests, especially in Indonesia…At a United Nations climate summit in New York this week, companies are playing a larger role than at any such gathering in the past — and issuing a blizzard of promises.

“Several environmental groups said they were optimistic that at least some of these would be kept, but they warned that corporate action was not enough, and that climate change could not be solved without stronger steps by governments…The corporate promises are the culmination of a trend that has been building for years, with virtually every major company now feeling obliged to make commitments about environmental sustainability…[Companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, Cargill, and Unilever] have found that pursuing such goals can often help them cut costs, particularly for energy…”

SOLAR WILL POWER SCHOOLS, EARN MONEY FOR TEACHERS

The 3,752 solar-equipped K-12 U.S. schools’ 490 megawatts of installed capacity is the result of (1) a 53% average system price drop between 2010 and Q2 2014, (2) schools’ high daytime load and plentiful rooftop and grounds space, and (3) champions like the Illinois Clean Energy Community Foundation and the National Solar Schools Consortium, according to a new report from The Solar Foundation and the Solar Energy Industries Association. Between 40% and 60% of the 125,000 U.S. schools could profit from installing solar, the report found, and 450 U.S. school districts could each save more than $1 million over 30 years with solar, including some that could save tens of millions of dollars to invest in new teacher hires and educational materials. The National Solar Schools Consortium’s goal is to have 20,000 solar installations producing at U.S. K-12 and post-secondary schools by 2020. click here for more

“…The Stella [is a tadpole-shaped electric sedan covered in and powered solely by solar modules and] can go nearly 500 miles on a single charge. That’s almost double the range of the [Tesla] Model S…[Y]ou rarely would even need to plug the car into an electrical outlet given that its 1.5 kilowatt solar array continuously charges the lithium-ion battery pack—as long as the sun is shining…A [suburban rooftop] solar panel system typically generates three to five kilowatts…

“…[The Stella] is billed as the world’s first solar-powered family car, carrying four people in a low-slung cabin. Lift up the solar panels on the car’s fishtail trunk, and there’s room for groceries. The Stella, which has a top speed of about 75 miles per hour, is packed with high-tech novelties such as a steering wheel that expands in your hands to signal that you’re exceeding the speed limit or contracts when you’re driving too slow. To activate the turn signals, you just squeeze the appropriate side of the steering wheel…[Built by a group of students at Eindhoven University of Technology in the Netherlands, the Stella] meets Dutch safety standards…[T]he team drove the car from Los Angeles to San Francisco…powered almost entirely on sunshine…”

A LOOK AT SEE-THROUGH SOLAR

“A new solar concentrator has been developed which can be placed over windows to create solar energy -- without obstructing your view. The most efficient solar cells to date are often colored to absorb the sun's rays more efficiently, but if made transparent they could become a lot more versatile…[B]eing developed by Richard Lunt's team at Michigan State University…[t]he solar harvesting system uses small organic molecules which absorb specific non-visible wavelengths of sunlight such as ultraviolet and near infrared. These in turn are made to 'glow' at another wavelength in the non-visible infrared which is guided to photovoltaics on the edges for conversion into electricity, whilst maintaining transparency…The technology is at an early stage and very little energy is currently converted into electricity, but it has the potential to be scaled…”click here for more

TODAY’S STUDY: FREEING THE NATIONAL TREASURE IN U.S. NATIONAL LABS

Since their inception in the 1940s, the Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories have
been in the vanguard of America’s global research and development leadership. However, the
national innovation system has changed in the past 70 years. Today, much technology development and application occurs in the context of synergistic regional clusters of firms, trade associations, educational institutions, private labs, and regional economic development organizations.
Unfortunately, legacy operating procedures limit the DOE labs’ ability to engage fully with the
regional economies in which they are located. This lack of consistent engagement with regional
technology clusters has likely limited the labs’ overall contributions to U.S. economic growth.

This brief argues that, in order to improve the impact of the national labs, DOE, states, and Congress should:

U.S. economic prosperity revolves around the competitiveness of the nation’s advanced
industry sector: innovation- and science-technology-engineering-mathematics (STEM)
worker-intensive industries focused on advanced production and services.1
Central to the
competitiveness of these critical industries is the U.S. innovation ecosystem, which functions most dynamically in U.S. metropolitan regions. Cities and their surrounding metro areas support
innovation through concentrated knowledge flows, specialized workers, and dense supply chains that
improve firm productivity through highly adaptive and specialized technology clusters.2
As such, the
nation’s regional clusters are important sources of national problem-solving, innovation, and prosperity.

Located throughout the country, the Department of Energy’s (DOE) 17 national labs (labs) stand as
potentially pivotal institutions in many metropolitan economies and for overall national innovation,
growth, and competitiveness. As centers of basic and applied technology research and development
(R&D), the labs are well-positioned to serve as unique focal points for technology exchange among
regional firms, universities, and economic development intermediaries. However, to date, the labs
have made neither technology commercialization nor regional cluster participation a top priority.3
As
a result, they have been unable to optimally connect to the broader U.S. innovation ecosystem and
deliver on their responsibility to contribute to national economic growth.

Recently, though, a number of lab system leaders—as well as policymakers—have become increasingly interested in optimizing the role of the labs as engines of national and regional growth. Congress
has taken up bipartisan legislation to enhance lab flexibility when engaging with the private sector.4
Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz has made lab reform a priority.5 And a congressionally-mandated
commission is assessing potential areas of reform, including technology transfer, lab management,
private sector engagement, and budget consolidation.6 What these developments have in common is a
new recognition that regional economic development can (and ought to) be an important adjunct to- and expression of—the lab system’s larger national mission.

In keeping with these discussions, this report describes several barriers to—and opportunities for – DOE lab engagement within regions and suggests a number of possible policy responses to improve
the labs’ connections to metropolitan economies. To be sure, the current level of regional engagement
varies from one lab to the next, particularly given their diverse research missions; as such, not all
critiques outlined here apply universally. Nevertheless, it would be generally beneficial overall for DOE,
Congress, and state governments to take steps to ensure that the entire system becomes more attentive to those economic regions where the labs are located. As they did in the years following World
War II, the labs must pivot once more to embrace a new mission that includes more active engagement
with regional innovation systems within which they are located. Such engagement will not substitute
for the labs’ critical national mission, but will instead complement and advance it…

Making progress on this agenda will not be easy, but it should be possible if all relevant
actors are enlisted. To that end, DOE leadership, lab managers, Congress, and state and
regional governments should all rethink their approach to the lab system in order to
facilitate better engagement with the nation’s regional clusters.

Many of this paper’s administrative recommendations can be addressed by DOE. In particular, DOE
should clearly prioritize the economic development mission of the labs and consider system-wide
incentive structures for regional engagement. DOE management is also well positioned to scale
technology transfer best practices amongst labs and streamline contracting procedures to better align
with the economics of small firms.

At the same time, Congress is ultimately responsible for the funding silos that remain a binding constraint on the lab system, and will need to address them accordingly. Without better funding mechanisms that free lab managers to coordinate research efforts with regional technology clusters and
work with SMEs and regional firms, the labs will likely remain inflexible and largely disconnected from
their regional economies.

For their own part, lab managers do retain significant discretion in the overall direction of lab
research. Some lab operators have prioritized regional engagements and actively worked with state
and regional governments to create opportunities for researchers to support local businesses. Others,
by contrast, have tended to discount calls for regional collaboration, claiming each lab is too distinct to
learn from system-wide best practices. Given that, progressive managers should continue to develop
new ways to situate lab research within a regional economic context (and seek greater discretion to do
so), while other operators should take a new look at some of the emerging best practices.

Finally, state and local governments can do a lot to “pull” technologies out of the labs. By
working
with their labs to establish microlabs near local universities or business incubators, or by developing
their own voucher programs, states can proactively partner with labs in their regions to amplify the
exposure of lab research to the private sector.

DOE and the national labs have a history of excellence in meeting national missions, making
revolutionary scientific discoveries, and developing breakthrough technologies. However,
the structures, incentives, and cultural norms that define the nation’s lab system must be
updated to meet the new realities of the 21st-century innovation economy. In the years
following World War II, the national labs were considered to have met their objective by producing
technologically superior weapons for the United States and its allies. Yet, instead of closing their doors
as war-time relics, the United States doubled down on the labs as national assets of innovation and
economic advantage. Today, the labs must pivot once more to embrace the new economics of geography and engage more in the innovation systems within their home regions.

“…[In 2010, the Rockefeller Brothers Fund (RBF)] board of trustees approved a commitment of up to 10 percent of the endowment to investments…[in] clean energy technologies and other business strategies that advance energy efficiency, decrease dependence on fossil fuels, and mitigate the effects of climate change…Given the RBF’s deep commitment to combating climate change, the Fund is now committing to a two-step process to address its desire to divest from investments in fossil fuels. Our immediate focus will be on coal and tar sands, two of the most intensive sources of carbon emissions…[W]e are committed to reducing our exposure to coal and tar sands to less than one percent of the total portfolio by the end of 2014…[We] will work with the RBF Investment Committee and board of trustees to determine an appropriate strategy for further divestment over the next few years…[O]ur divestment from fossil fuels, which is now underway, will be accomplished through a careful process of evaluating our exposure and a phased approach that proceeds as quickly as is prudent…”click here for more

Duke Energy’s Duke-American Transmission will join with Pathfinder Renewable Wind Energy, Magnum Energy, and Dresser-Rand to propose a ground-breaking $8 billion wind energy and wind storage system for the Southern California Public Power Authority. The plan calls for Duke to ante up $1.3 billion and build a 525 mile, $2.6 billion, high voltage transmission line to Utah for Wyoming wind energy-generated electricity, where an existing line can deliver the power to Los Angeles and, through California’s transmission system, across the state. Pathfinder Renewable Wind Energy will build a $4 billion, 2,100-megawatt Wyoming wind farm and Pathfinder, Magnum Energy, and Dresser-Rand will build a $1.5 billion, 1,200 megawatt, 41 million cubic foot compressed air energy storage (CAES) facility in four salt formations in Utah. CAES has been used for wind energy storage in Germany since 1978 and in Alabama since 1991 and projects are planned or under construction in Texas, the UK, and Iowa but it has yet to be proven economically practical. click here for more

California Governor Jerry Brown signed 11 new bills into law and announced a new goal to get 1.5 million zero-emission cars on California’s roads in the next ten years. California had 709,766 hybrids in 2013, up from 337,881 in 2009, and, thanks to a $5,000 state tax rebate for electric and zero-emission cars, now has 60,988 electric vehicles, 40% of the U.S. plug-in fleet, and has spent $158 on rebates since 2010. Polls show Brown in a very strong position for re-election and an unprecedented second two-term governorship. California’s 2002 law requiring a cut in vehicle carbon dioxide after 2009 set a standard subsequently enacted by the federal government in 2012. Zero-emission vehicles are: battery-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel-cell-electric vehicles. click here for more

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

TODAY’S STUDY: WHERE OFFSHORE WIND IS IN THE WORLD

Michael Hahn, Patrick Gilman, August 27, 2014 (Navigant Research for the U.S. Department of Energy)

Executive Summary

The U.S. offshore wind industry is transitioning from early development to demonstration of
commercial viability. While there are no commercial-scale projects in operation, there are 14 U.S. projects
in advanced development, defined as having either been awarded a lease, conducted baseline or
geophysical studies, or obtained a power purchase agreement (PPA). There are panels or task forces in
place in at least 14 states to engage stakeholders to identify constraints and sites for offshore wind. U.S.
policymakers are beginning to follow the examples in Europe that have proven successful in stimulating
offshore wind technological advancement, project deployment, and job creation.

There are approximately 7 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind installed worldwide. The majority of this
activity continues to center on northwestern Europe, but development in China is progressing as well. In
2013, more than 1,700 megawatts (MW) of wind power capacity was added globally, with the United
Kingdom alone accounting for 812 MW (47%) of new capacity. In total, capacity additions in 2013
showed a roughly 50 percent increase over 2012, finally surpassing the pace of installations achieved in
2010. It appears that near-term growth will continue, with more than 6,600 MW of offshore wind under
construction in 29 projects globally, including 1,000 MW in China. While this upward trend is
encouraging, uncertain political support for offshore wind in European nations and the challenges of
bringing down costs means that the pace of capacity growth may level off in the next two years.

Since the last edition of this report, the U.S. offshore wind market has made incremental but notable
progress toward the completion of its first commercial-scale projects. Two of the United States’ most
advanced projects – Cape Wind and Deepwater’s Block Island project – have moved into their initial
stages of construction. In addition, continued progress with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management
(BOEM) commercial lease auctions for federal Wind Energy Areas (WEAs) has contributed to more
projects moving into advanced stages of development. In total, 14 U.S. projects, representing
approximately 4.9 GW of potential capacity, can now be considered in advanced stages.
1 A map showing
the announced locations and capacities of these advanced-stage projects appears in Figure ES-1.

On the demonstration project front, the DOE announced continued funding for Offshore Wind
Advanced Technology Demonstration (ATD) to three projects in May 2014. Fishermen’s Energy,
Dominion, and Principle Power were each selected for up to $46.7 million in federal funds for final
design and construction of pilot projects off New Jersey, Virginia and Oregon, respectively, from an
original group of seven projects that were selected in 2012. Two of the other original seven, the
University of Maine and the Lake Erie Economic Development Company of Ohio, will receive a few
million each, under separate awards, to continue the engineering designs of their proposed pilot
projects.

Overall, offshore wind power project costs may be stabilizing somewhat compared to their recent
upward trend. Notably, for those projects installed in 2013 for which data were available, the average
reported capital cost was $5,187/kW, compared to $5,385/kW for projects completed in 2012. While it
appears that the stabilizing trend may continue for projects completed in 2014, a lack of data for projects
anticipated to reach completion in 2015 and 2016 makes it difficult to assess whether the trend will
continue. Note that all such capital cost data are self-reported by project developers and are not available
for all projects globally; therefore, it may not be fully representative of market trends.

Globally, offshore wind projects continue to trend farther from shore into increasingly deeper waters;
parallel increases in turbine sizes and hub heights are contributing to higher reported capacity
factors. While the trend toward greater distances helps reduce visual impacts and public opposition to
offshore wind, it also requires advancements in foundation technologies and affects the logistics and
costs of installation and maintenance. On the positive side, the trend toward higher-capacity machines
combines with increasing hub heights and rotor diameters to allow projects to improve energy capture
by taking better advantage of higher wind speeds.

The average nameplate capacity of offshore wind turbines jumped substantially from 2010 to 2011 as
projects increasingly deployed 3.6 MW and 5 MW turbines. Since then, however, average turbine size
has plateaued around 4 MW. This leveling off of average turbine size will likely continue over the next
two years as previously ordered 3.6 MW machines are deployed and Asian manufacturers work to catch
up with their European counterparts. The upward trend in average turbine sizes will likely resume
toward 2018 as developers begin deploying more 5.0 MW and larger turbines. The average turbine size
for advanced-stage projects in the United States is expected to range between 5.0 and 5.3 MW, indicating
that U.S. projects will likely utilize larger offshore turbines rather than smaller turbines that have
previously been installed in European waters.

The shift to more distant locations and larger capacity turbines, along with a desire to minimize tower
top mass, has driven continued innovation in drivetrain configurations; however, the majority of
installed turbines continue to use conventional drivetrain designs. Other configurations, such as
direct-drive and medium-speed drivetrains, have been limited to a combined 3 percent market share of
cumulative installed capacity. Deployment of turbines with alternative drivetrain configurations will
likely increase significantly over the next several years, as the new 5 to 8 MW class turbine models from
Siemens, Vestas, Areva, Alstom, and Mitsubishi are installed at commercial projects.

The past year has seen a continued trend for substructure design innovations, as the challenges of
installing larger turbines, siting projects in deeper waters, and the need to reduce installed costs
persist. While much of the focus in recent years has been on alternatives to the conventional monopile
approach (due to various limitations), the advent of the extra-large (XL) monopile (suitable to a 45 m
water depth) may have somewhat lessened the impetus for significant change.
Regardless, the optimal
type of substructure (and the potential for innovation) is largely driven by site-specific factors, and
plenty of opportunity remains for new designs that can address developers’ unique combinations of
needs. In the near-term, monopiles will continue to comprise the majority of new installations, with
multi-pile (jacket and tripod) designs showing notable increases. In addition, the industry continues to
explore the potential for floating foundations, with several demonstration-scale projects currently
operating and additional installations planned.

U.S. offshore wind development faces significant challenges: (1) the cost competitiveness of offshore
wind energy;2
(2) a lack of infrastructure such as offshore transmission and purpose-built ports and
vessels; and (3) uncertain and lengthy regulatory processes. Various U.S. states, the U.S. federal
government, and European countries have used a variety of policies to address each of these barriers
with varying success.

For the U.S. to maximize offshore wind development, the most critical need continues to be
stimulation of demand through addressing cost competitiveness and providing policy certainty. Key
federal policies expired for projects that did not start construction by year-end 2013: the Renewable
Electricity Production Tax Credit (PTC), the Business Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC), and the 50
percent first-year bonus depreciation allowance. However, the Senate Finance Committee recently
passed an extension of both of the PTC and ITC through 2015, maintaining the same new definition of
commencing construction, as part of a comprehensive tax extenders bill covering 51 other industries and
there is some chance that the full Senate and House will adopt this before the end of 2014.

Furthermore, the DOE announced three projects that will each receive up to $47 million to complete
engineering and construction as the second phase of the Offshore Wind Advanced Technology
Demonstration Program. On the state level, Maryland began promulgating rules for Offshore Renewable
Energy Credits (ORECs) for up to 200 MW, and the Maine Public Utility Commission approved a term
sheet with a team led by the University of Maine for a pilot floating wind turbine project.
Increased infrastructure is necessary to allow demand to be filled. Examples of transmission policies
that can be implemented in the short term with relatively little effort are to designate offshore wind
energy resources zones for targeted offshore grid investments, establish cost allocation and recovery
mechanisms for transmission interconnections, and promote utilization of existing transmission capacity
reservations to integrate offshore wind. In 2014, there were few tangible milestones in this area, although long-term plans for offshore transmission projects such as the Atlantic Wind Connection and
the New Jersey Energy Link progressed steadily in their development efforts.
Regulatory policies cover three general categories: (a) policies that define the process of obtaining site
leases; (b) policies that define the environmental, permitting processes; and (c) policies that regulate
environmental and safety compliance of plants in operation. In 2014, the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy
Management (BOEM) announced additional competitive lease sales for renewable energy off
Massachusetts, Maryland and New Jersey.

Our estimated installed costs have dropped 6% since our 2011 work. This is driven by: new data from
European projects, revised design assumptions and more refined estimates from U.S. projects in
planning stages. Expected installed costs for a 500 MW farm are $2.86 Billion or $5,700/kW.

Current U.S. employment levels could be between 550 and 4,600 full-time equivalents (FTEs), and
current investment could be between $146 million and $1.1 billion. The ranges are driven by
Navigant’s uncertainty about from where advanced-stage projects are sourcing components. As the
advanced-stage projects start construction, employment levels will likely double or triple to support
equipment transport and installation.

The development of an offshore wind industry in the U.S. will depend on the evolution of other
sectors in the economy. Factors within the power sector, such as the capacity or price of competing
power generation technologies, will affect the demand for offshore wind. Factors within industries that
compete with offshore wind for resources (e.g., oil and gas, construction, and manufacturing) will affect
the price of offshore wind power.

Factors in the power sector that will have the largest impact include natural gas prices and the change
in coal-based generation capacity. As electricity prices have historically been linked to natural gas
prices, a decrease in prices of the latter can lead to a decrease in the price of the former.
Natural gas
prices declined from above $4 per million British thermal units (MMbtu) in August 2011 to below
$2/MMbtu in April 2012, largely due to the supply of low-cost gas from the Marcellus Shale. Lower
resulting electricity prices can make investment in other power generation sources such as offshore wind
less economically attractive. However, natural gas prices have been rising steadily since then and have
remained above $4/MMbtu since late 2013 with periods exceeding $6/MMbtu3 and may continue to rise
with three new liquefied natural gas export terminals recently approved.

In terms of coal, Navigant analysis reveals executed and planned coal plant retirements through 2020 of
nearly 40 GW. As this capacity is removed from the U.S. electric generation base, it will need to be
replaced by other power generation resources, including but not limited to natural gas and offshore wind. As such, continued coal plant retirements could increase the demand for offshore wind plants in
the United States.

QUICK NEWS, Sept. 23: THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION; THE MATTER OF WIND IN KANSAS; MICROGRID TECHNOLOGY MARKET TO QUADRUPLE

“In the 1980s, leading consultants were skeptical about cellular phones…[but] there are billions now…Costs have fallen so far that even the poor — all over world — can afford [one]…The experts [skeptical] about solar energy now…They say that solar is inefficient, too expensive to install, and unreliable, and will fail without government subsidies. They too are wrong. Solar will be as ubiquitous as cellular phones are…[S]olar power has been doubling every two years for the past 30 years — as costs have been dropping…[and] is only six doublings — or less than 14 years — away from meeting 100 percent of today’s energy needs…[I]nexpensive renewable sources will provide more energy than the world needs in less than 20 years…In places such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, Australia, and the Southwest United States…it costs no more in the long term to install solar panels than to buy electricity from utility companies…By 2020, solar energy will be price-competitive with energy generated from fossil fuels on an unsubsidized basis in most parts of the world. Within the next decade, it will cost a fraction of what fossil fuel-based alternatives do…[T]here will be disruption of the entire fossil-fuel industry…The challenge for mankind will be to share this abundance, ensuring that these technologies make the world a better place.”click here for more

“…At full capacity [Kansas] would generate more wind energy than any other state except Texas…[and about] three-quarters of the total electricity generated by all energy sources in the United States last year. Despite growing investment that has nearly tripled Kansas wind-energy production since 2010, the state’s producers generated only 9,430 gigawatt hours last year — 0.3 percent of the potential…[in part because the] Koch-funded advocacy group Americans for Prosperity (AFP) is leading the fight to repeal a federal tax credit for wind energy producers…In Kansas such arguments are having little effect. Americans for Prosperity and the Kansas Chamber of Commerce (another major recipient of Koch money) spent months trying to get the Republican-controlled state legislature to repeal a state renewable-energy standard…But the legislature refused…Caught in the middle is the state’s Republican governor, Sam Brownback, who is locked in a tough re-election fight against state House Minority Leader Paul Davis. Brownback has close ties to the anti-wind forces…Koch Industries was the top donor throughout the governor's 16-year career in the U.S. Congress…But Brownback also recognizes the economics that make wind energy appealing…[H]e has found himself in the uncomfortable position of boasting about wind energy’s growth in the state — a source of several thousand much-needed jobs during his term — while trying to oppose the regulatory environment that has fostered that growth…”click here for more

“…[A] much greater emphasis is now being placed on the economic value microgrids bring to [advanced energy storage and to] the entire utility-led macrogrid…[N]ew business models designed to support full commercial implementation of microgrid systems [are being investigated]…[M]icrogrid enabling technology (MET) options…[include] technologies and services related to smart buildings, demand response, distribution and substation automation, and smart meters. The leading market opportunity within the realm of microgrids is with different forms of distributed generation (DG), including diesel generators, natural gas generators, and other forms of renewable DG…[But] advanced energy storage will represent the single largest investment category among MET options by 2023, though DG investments as a whole will still be larger. According to Navigant Research, global annual DG vendor revenue is expected to grow from $1.8 billion in 2014 to $9.6 billion in 2023…”click here for more

Monday, September 22, 2014

TODAY’S STUDY: NEW ENERGY TO BE THE WORLD’S BIGGEST AND BEST ENERGY BY 2030

An alignment of economics, demographics, climate change and technology has set in
motion an ongoing transformation of the global energy system.

Growing populations, with improved living standards and increasingly concentrated in
urban centres, have dramatically raised the demand for energy services. At the same
time, a growing consensus over the dangers posed by climate change has prompted
people and governments worldwide to seek ways to generate that energy while
minimising greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts.

Rapid technological progress, combined with falling costs, a better understanding
of financial risk and a growing appreciation of wider benefits, means that renewable
energy is increasingly seen as the answer. REmap 2030, a global roadmap developed
by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), shows that not only can
renewable energy meet the world’s rising demand, but it can do so more cheaply, while
contributing to limiting global warming to under 2 degrees Celsius – the widely cited
tipping point for climate change.

A technology once considered as niche is becoming mainstream. What remains unclear
is how long this transition will take, and how well policy makers will handle the change.

REthinking
Energy, a new series by IRENA, will explore how renewable energy is financed, produced,
distributed and consumed, and will chart the changing relationships it is bringing about
between states, corporations and individuals.

This first volume focuses upon the power sector. It tells a story – about the trends
driving this change, how the technology is evolving, who is financing it, and the wider
benefits it will bring. Finally, it examines what an energy system powered by renewables
might look like and how policy makers can further support the transformation.

At the heart of the energy transformation lies demand, the aim to strengthen energy
security and the imperative of a sustainable future.

Over the past 40 years the world’s population grew from 4 billion to 7 billion people.
An increasing proportion is middle class and living in cities. During the same period,
electricity generation grew by more than 250%.

This growth will continue. In 2030 there will be more than 8 billion people, with 5 billion in
urban conglomerations. Global spending by the middle classes is expected to more than
double, from USD 21 trillion in 2010 to USD 56 trillion in 2030. World electricity generation
is forecast to grow by 70% from 22,126 terawatt-hour (TWh) in 2011 to 37,000 in 2030.

But this energy is coming at a cost. There is growing consensus on the threat of climate
change brought on by increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases,
prompting worldwide efforts to reduce emissions.

If business continues as usual, these efforts will not succeed. The average emissions
intensity of electricity production has barely changed over the past 20 years. Gains from the
increasing deployment of renewables, and less intensive fossil fuels such as natural gas, have
been offset by less efficient power plants and the rising use of coal. Without a substantial
increase in the share of renewables in the mix, climate change mitigation will remain elusive.

REmap 2030 shows that under current policies and national plans (business as usual
case), average carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will only fall to 498 g/kWh by 2030.
That is insufficient to keep atmospheric CO2
levels below 450 parts per million (ppm),
beyond which severe climate change is expected to occur. A doubling in the share
of renewables could help mitigate climate change by reducing the global average
emissions of CO2
to 349 g/kWh – equivalent to a 40% intensity reduction compared to
1990 levels, as seen in the figure below.

There is also increasing concern about the direct health impact of burning fossil fuels
as fast-growing economies confront rapidly declining air quality and a sharp rise in
respiratory disease. The United States Environmental Protection Agency recently found that ill health caused by fossil fuels nationally costs between USD 362 billion
and USD 887 billion annually. The European Union’s Health and Environment
Alliance found that emissions from coal-fired power plants cost its citizens up to
EUR 42.8 billion in yearly health costs. Localised catastrophes, such as the Deepwater
Horizon oil spill in the United States, or the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, are
becoming global news with profound implications. Governments have taken note.

There is growing pressure, meanwhile, to bring electricity to the 1.3 billion people
currently without electricity access, many in remote areas, for whom traditional
large-scale power plants and transmission systems have not yet provided an answer.
Also, 2.6 billion people rely on traditional biomass and cook using traditional stoves that
cause severe health impacts.

These trends have prompted a widespread conviction that something has to change.
Fossil fuels powered the first industrial revolution, but even in the new era of shale
oil and gas, questions remain about their compatibility with sustainable human well-being. The stage is set for the era of modern renewable energy that is cost competitive,
mainstream and sustainable.

Large-scale hydro, geothermal and biomass power have been competitive for some
time, but for many years wind and solar power struggled to compete with coal, oil and
natural gas. Over the past decade, however, and in particular over the last five years,
that picture has changed dramatically.

Renewable energy technologies have grown more robust and more efficient and are
increasingly able to generate power even in suboptimal conditions such as low wind
speeds and low solar irradiation. Energy storage technologies are improving fast.
Buoyed by state support in Europe and the United States, and boosted by the rise of
new manufacturing powerhouses such as China, costs have plummeted. These trends
are illustrated in the graphic below which charts the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)
for different forms of utility and off-grid power.

Solar photovoltaic (PV) prices have fallen by 80% since 2008 and are expected to keep
dropping. In 2013, commercial solar power reached grid parity in Italy, Germany and
Spain and will do so soon in Mexico and France. Increasingly, solar PV can compete without subsidies: power from a new 70 megawatt (MW) solar farm under construction
in Chile, for example, is anticipated to sell on the national spot market, competing
directly with fossil fuel-based electricity. The cost of onshore wind electricity has
fallen 18% since 2009, with turbine costs falling nearly 30% since 2008, making it the
cheapest source of new electricity in a wide and growing range of markets. More than
100 countries now use wind power. Offshore wind is also expected to grow rapidly
as costs fall, with the United Kingdom leading the market with 4.2 gigawatts (GW) of
installed capacity as of mid 2014.

These and other developments have made renewables increasingly attractive in many
more markets. In 2013, for the first time, new renewable capacity installations were
higher in countries not members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD). China’s deployment of solar PV and wind in 2013 was estimated
at 27.4 GW: nearly four times more than the next largest, Japan.

Worldwide, renewable power capacity has grown 85% over the past 10 years, reaching
1,700 GW in 2013, and renewables today constitute 30% of all installed power capacity.
The challenge has moved on from whether renewable energy can power modern
lifestyles at a reasonable cost – which we now know it can – to how best to finance
and accelerate its deployment.

Renewable energy is competitive on a cost per kilowatt-hour basis. As most renewable
technologies have a relatively high ratio of upfront to operating costs, their viability is
particularly sensitive to the cost of capital. That is why government financial support
has traditionally been critical for promoting renewables. However, as the technology
has grown more competitive and pressure on budgets has increased, governments
have been reducing their support.

The good news is that private finance is increasingly ready to step in. Due to growing
experience, developers are getting better at forecasting cash flow and financiers are
more able to accurately assess risk. The cost of capital is falling and products are
being tailored for a wider range of investors, from small-scale communities to large
institutions. Crowdfunding initiatives can also be used to attract capital, especially
in developing countries where cost of capital is traditionally high. The figure below
shows how sources of renewable energy investments evolve with increasing maturity
of technologies and markets.

At the other end of the scale, institutional investors are also starting to get interested.
They are increasingly taking into account the risk attached to fossil fuels and new
long-term, low-risk instruments are being created to encourage them to invest in
renewables. Early-mover private developers in this space attracted USD 11 billion in
2013, up 200% in 12 months.

Large non-energy corporates are also becoming involved. For example, IKEA’s
turbines and solar panels now produce 37% of its energy consumption, and Google has
invested over USD 1.4 billion in wind and solar – in most cases because of attractive
financial returns.

But these positive trends are not yet enough. Total investment in renewable energy rose
from USD 55 billion in 2004 to USD 214 billion in 2013 (excluding large hydropower).
This falls short of the USD 550 billion needed annually until 2030 to double the global
share of renewable energy and avert catastrophic climate change.

Policy makers have an important role to play. If they make it clear that renewable
energy will be a larger part of their national energy mix, and commit to long-term,
non-financial support mechanisms, they could reduce uncertainty and attract more
investors. In emerging markets, public financing will remain important as domestic
structures to support the deployment of renewables are developed. In this context,
international cooperation and financial flows play an increasingly prominent role. With
increasing competitiveness, financial support can gradually and predictably be scaled
back, focusing instead on grid improvements, education and industry standards,
which strengthen the market as a whole.

There is also an opportunity for traditional power utilities to do more. Joint projects
between large utilities, small developers and clients could be a way forward, as
business models adapt to the changing market conditions.

There is growing evidence that renewable energy has a positive ripple effect
throughout society, simultaneously advancing economic, social and environmental
goals. Its costs and benefits are best understood not within traditional policy silos,
but as part of a holistic strategy to promote economic prosperity, well-being and a
healthy environment.

Renewables are good for a country’s economy. A recent Japanese study, looking
at a 2030 target of 14%-16% renewables, found the benefits were 2-3 times
higher than the costs – including savings in fossil fuel imports, CO2
emissions
reductions and economic ripple effects. Spain’s use of renewables avoided
USD 2.8 billion of fossil fuel imports in 2010, while Germany saved USD 13.5 billion in
2012. For fossil fuel-exporting countries, deploying renewables at home makes more
resources available for sale overseas.

The benefits are felt through the value chain as renewable energy stimulates
domestic economic activities and creates employment. In 2013, it supported
6.5 million direct and indirect jobs – including 2.6 million in China, as illustrated in the
figure below.

Renewables can also bring electric power to people currently left off the grid, promoting
productive uses, spurring education, allowing access to modern communications and
offering a host of new opportunities.

The environmental benefits are just as compelling, on both local and global levels. Most
renewables do not deplete finite resources (although water may be needed for cleaning
and cooling, which can be a challenge in arid countries). Renewables also reduce the
risk of ecological disasters.

Crucially, they offer a route to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, a major cause of global
warming. Electricity alone accounts for more than 40% of man-made CO2 emissions
today. Solar, wind, nuclear, hydroelectric, geothermal and bioenergy are, across their
lifetime, 10-120 times less carbon intensive than the cleanest fossil fuel (natural gas) and up to 250 times lower in carbon than coal. REmap 2030 estimates that doubling
the share of renewables in the energy mix, coupled with greater energy efficiency, can
keep atmospheric CO2
below 450 ppm – the level beyond which catastrophic climate
change would occur.

As the share of renewable energy grows, the structure of the industry and the nature
and role of power producers are undergoing change. A sector once dominated by large
utilities is becoming more decentralised, diverse and distributed. In Germany, almost
half of all renewable energy is now in the hands of households and farmers, and only
12% of renewable assets are owned directly by utilities.

New storage technologies, and smart technologies to support better demand-side
management, will grow in importance – creating a whole new ancillary industry of smart
appliances. In many emerging markets, renewables are already the most economic
power source for off-grid and mini-grid systems. As with the shift from fixed telephony
to mobile phones, many countries have an opportunity to leapfrog the development of
a fixed network by moving to a flexible system of multiple, interconnected mini-grids.

These and other trends require a different way of thinking about energy, shifting from a
system dominated by a few centralised utilities, to a diverse, distributed system, where
consumers are also producers, with far more control over how and when they use
energy.

Policy makers can do much to either promote or hinder this vision. Renewable energy
investors need stable and predictable policy frameworks, which recognise the system-level benefits renewable energy can bring. They need a level playing field, including
cutting back on the substantial subsidies currently enjoyed by fossil fuels worldwide. And
they need a supportive grid infrastructure, including more regional interconnections to
take advantage of synergies between different forms of renewable power.

Rethinking energy means policy makers need to consider the benefits of renewable
energy as a whole, linking areas previously considered unrelated – such as healthcare,
rural development and governance. Herein lies the biggest change: adopting a truly
holistic approach, which not only takes into account the interests of short-term growth,
but provides the opportunity of sustainable prosperity for all.

The changes at hand offer the potential for a new industrial revolution – creating a
renewables-based system, which enhances access, health and security, creates jobs
and safeguards the environment. The technology is ready to deploy. People, businesses
and governments must now embrace its potential.

Plug-in Hybrids: The Cars that will ReCharge America by Sherry Boschert: "Smart companies plan ahead and try to be the first to adopt new technology that will give them a competitive advantage. That’s what Toyota and Honda did with hybrids, and now they’re sitting pretty. Whichever company is first to bring a good plug-in hybrid to market will not only change their fortune but change the world."

Oil On The Brain; Adventures from the Pump to the Pipeline by Lisa Margonelli: "Spills are one of the costs of oil consumption that don’t appear at the pump. [Oil consultant Dagmar Schmidt Erkin]’s data shows that 120 million gallons of oil were spilled in inland waters between 1985 and 2003. From that she calculates that between 1980 and 2003, pipelines spilled 27 gallons of oil for every billion “ton miles” of oil they transported, while barges and tankers spilled around 15 gallons and trucks spilled 37 gallons. (A ton of oil is 294 gallons. If you ship a ton of oil for one mile you have one ton mile.) Right now the United States ships about 900 billion ton miles of oil and oil products per year."

NOTEWORTHY IN THE MEDIA:
NewEnergyNews would welcome any media-saavy volunteer who would like to re-develop this section of the page. Announcements and reviews of film, television, radio and music related to energy and environmental issues are welcome.

Review of OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, The American Decades by Mark S. Friedman

OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, The American Decades, the second volume of Herman K. Trabish’s retelling of oil’s history in fiction, picks up where the first book in the series, OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, The Story of Our Addiction, left off. The new book is an engrossing, informative and entertaining tale of the Roaring 20s, World War II and the Cold War. You don’t have to know anything about the first historical fiction’s adventures set between the Civil War, when oil became a major commodity, and World War I, when it became a vital commodity, to enjoy this new chronicle of the U.S. emergence as a world superpower and a world oil power.

As the new book opens, Lefash, a minor character in the first book, witnesses the role Big Oil played in designing the post-Great War world at the Paris Peace Conference of 1919. Unjustly implicated in a murder perpetrated by Big Oil agents, LeFash takes the name Livingstone and flees to the U.S. to clear himself. Livingstone’s quest leads him through Babe Ruth’s New York City and Al Capone’s Chicago into oil boom Oklahoma. Stymied by oil and circumstance, Livingstone marries, has a son and eventually, surprisingly, resolves his grievances with the murderer and with oil.

In the new novel’s second episode the oil-and-auto-industry dynasty from the first book re-emerges in the charismatic person of Victoria Wade Bridger, “the woman everybody loved.” Victoria meets Saudi dynasty founder Ibn Saud, spies for the State Department in the Vichy embassy in Washington, D.C., and – for profound and moving personal reasons – accepts a mission into the heart of Nazi-occupied Eastern Europe. Underlying all Victoria’s travels is the struggle between the allies and axis for control of the crucial oil resources that drove World War II.

As the Cold War begins, the novel’s third episode recounts the historic 1951 moment when Britain’s MI-6 handed off its operations in Iran to the CIA, marking the end to Britain’s dark manipulations and the beginning of the same work by the CIA. But in Trabish’s telling, the covert overthrow of Mossadeq in favor of the ill-fated Shah becomes a compelling romance and a melodramatic homage to the iconic “Casablanca” of Bogart and Bergman.

Monty Livingstone, veteran of an oil field youth, European WWII combat and a star-crossed post-war Berlin affair with a Russian female soldier, comes to 1951 Iran working for a U.S. oil company. He re-encounters his lost Russian love, now a Soviet agent helping prop up Mossadeq and extend Mother Russia’s Iranian oil ambitions. The reunited lovers are caught in a web of political, religious and Cold War forces until oil and power merge to restore the Shah to his future fate. The romance ends satisfyingly, America and the Soviet Union are the only forces left on the world stage and ambiguity is resolved with the answer so many of Trabish’s characters ultimately turn to: Oil.

Commenting on a recent National Petroleum Council report calling for government subsidies of the fossil fuels industries, a distinguished scholar said, “It appears that the whole report buys these dubious arguments that the consumer of energy is somehow stupid about energy…” Trabish’s great and important accomplishment is that you cannot read his emotionally engaging and informative tall tales and remain that stupid energy consumer. With our world rushing headlong toward Peak Oil and epic climate change, the OIL IN THEIR BLOOD series is a timely service as well as a consummate literary performance.

Review of OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, The Story of Our Addiction by Mark S. Friedman

"...ours is a culture of energy illiterates." (Paul Roberts, THE END OF OIL)

OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, a superb new historical fiction by Herman K. Trabish, addresses our energy illiteracy by putting the development of our addiction into a story about real people, giving readers a chance to think about how our addiction happened. Trabish's style is fine, straightforward storytelling and he tells his stories through his characters.

The book is the answer an oil family's matriarch gives to an interviewer who asks her to pass judgment on the industry. Like history itself, it is easier to tell stories about the oil industry than to judge it. She and Trabish let readers come to their own conclusions.

She begins by telling the story of her parents in post-Civil War western Pennsylvania, when oil became big business. This part of the story is like a John Ford western and its characters are classic American melodramatic heroes, heroines and villains.

In Part II, the matriarch tells the tragic story of the second generation and reveals how she came to be part of the tales. We see oil become an international commodity, traded on Wall Street and sought from London to Baku to Mesopotamia to Borneo. A baseball subplot compares the growth of the oil business to the growth of baseball, a fascinating reflection of our current president's personal career.

There is an unforgettable image near the center of the story: International oil entrepreneurs talk on a Baku street. This is Trabish at his best, portraying good men doing bad and bad men doing good, all laying plans for wealth and power in the muddy, oily alley of a tiny ancient town in the middle of everywhere. Because Part I was about triumphant American heroes, the tragedy here is entirely unexpected, despite Trabish's repeated allusions to other stories (Casey At The Bat, Hamlet) that do not end well.

In the final section, World War I looms. Baseball takes a back seat to early auto racing and oil-fueled modernity explodes. Love struggles with lust. A cavalry troop collides with an army truck. Here, Trabish has more than tragedy in mind. His lonely, confused young protagonist moves through the horrible destruction of the Romanian oilfields only to suffer worse and worse horrors, until--unexpectedly--he finds something, something a reviewer cannot reveal. Finally, the question of oil must be settled, so the oil industry comes back into the story in a way that is beyond good and bad, beyond melodrama and tragedy.

Along the way, Trabish gives readers a greater awareness of oil and how we became addicted to it. Awareness, Paul Roberts said in THE END OF OIL, "...may be the first tentative step toward building a more sustainable energy economy. Or it may simply mean that when our energy system does begin to fail, and we begin to lose everything that energy once supplied, we won't be so surprised."

FAIR USE NOTICE: This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.