Share This Story!

NBA A-Z: Predictions for 2013, trades, champions

On each Friday, The NBA A-Z guys Sam Amick and Jeff Zillgitt will take on a topic or topics from around the league to discuss. This week, they talk about the Feb. 21 trade deadline and second-half story lines.

Each Friday, The NBA A-Z guys Sam Amick and Jeff Zillgitt will take on a topic or topics from around the league to discuss. This week, they talk about the Feb. 21 trade deadline, second-half story lines, playoff sleepers and best bet to win the title.

What teams will be most active at the trade deadline?

Sam: Most of this isn't rocket science. Take a peek at the standings, and ask yourself which team's respective records aren't as good as what some of us media pundits had said they would be going into the season.

Those teams, more than likely, will be active. To take it a bit deeper, those odds go up even more if those teams have players on expiring contracts with any discernible trade value. That's partly why so many folks around the league expect Utah to be active. In addition to the fact that the Jazz set the bar high last season (36-30) and want to keep momentum moving forward, they have talented big men in the last year of their contracts (Al Jefferson at $15 million and Paul Millsap at $7.2 million), young bigs who can take their places (Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter) and a glaring need for an upgrade at the point guard spot. Even before Mo Williams hurt his thumb and had to schedule surgery that will keep him out six weeks, that had been deemed a priority.

Otherwise, Toronto, which enjoyed modest improvement last season under new coach Dwane Casey and is on its way to even more after winning eight of its last nine, is widely expected to send center Andrea Bargnani (three years, $33 million remaining) packing.

A few notes from other teams…

While Jeff has made it clear that Cleveland doesn't need to trade big man Anderson Varejao, I have to think some tempting offers will (and probably already have) cross the desk of general manager Chris Grant. And considering the Cavs are a woeful 7-26, the pressure to make a move continues to increase.

Miami wants another big man, which comes as no surprise considering the Heat are 23rd in the league in rebounding percentage (48.7). But the Heat will more than likely be stuck with their deficiency of glass-eaters, as they lack the sort of available assets (player/contract wise) typically needed to get a deal done. Mike Miller, anyone?

The Los Angeles Lakers are 3-2 since having Steve Nash and Pau Gasol back in the fold in this key evaluation period. Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak must decide if this mix is going to work or if Gasol needs to be sent out for a more compatible piece.

Despite the Lakers' reported interest in Atlanta's Josh Smith as that piece, the Hawks don't appear inclined to cooperate. But Gasol's contract (a combined $38.2 million for this season and next) is a killer when it comes to the luxury tax that will kick in next season, so he remains at risk. He has averaged 35 minutes, 13.4 points on 42.8% shooting (24 of 56), 8.4 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.4 blocks in the five games with Nash.

Boston general manager Danny Ainge has always made it clear he won't tolerate the sort of lackluster results that were the norm before he brought the Big Three together, so the fact that his Celtics are an underwhelming 14-17 could certainly lead to moves being made.

The same could be said for Dallas, where owner Mark Cuban has been dedicated to his painful rebuilding plan but may be inclined to shake things up considering the 13-20 Mavs are just 1-5 since Dirk Nowitzki debuted following his right knee surgery.

As Sacramento general manager Geoff Petrie told David Aldridge of NBA.com recently, the Kings have no plans of trading frustrated big man DeMarcus Cousins. That sentiment is now consistent both privately and publicly, and it's a change from the "he's not untouchable" stance taken in the days following his Dec. 23 suspension for yelling at coach Keith Smart at halftime of a Dec. 22 game. As for Tyreke Evans? The Kings will certainly listen to offers for the fourth-year guard and have shown legitimate interest in upgrading their roster either by moving him or anyone else not named Cousins.

As if the 4-26 record wasn't indication enough that Washington needs to improve, the Wizards' interest in Cousins is a clear sign that they're looking to make major upgrade. Again, it's not rocket science here.

It wouldn't exactly send ripples through the league, but I've been told that Portland point guard Nolan Smith (taken 21st overall out of Duke in 2011) may very well be moved before the Feb. 21 trade deadline. That is if he ever plays enough to garner interest.

The Clippers love their roster and with good reason. But they'll get offers on third-year point guard Eric Bledsoe for two obvious reasons: He's a tremendous young player, and their point guard cupboard will be even more full when veteran Chauncey Billups (left foot) returns.

As Golden State owner Joe Lacob told me the other day, the Warriors will be "opportunistic" on the trade front. While there is still no timeline for the return of center Andrew Bogut (left foot), Lacob said he's hopeful Bogut can return with enough time left before the deadline to reassess the group as a whole before considering whatever offers may come their way.

Other teams I'd expect to be active: Charlotte, Milwaukee, Phoenix, New Orleans, Orlando.

Boston Celtics coach Doc Rivers, left, and general manager Danny Ainge could be making moves to improve the team.(Photo: Elise Amendola, AP)

Jeff: Lots of preliminary discussions and feelers right now, but nothing too serious. It's early. But look for these teams, for a variety of reasons (looking for assets, sitting on wanted players, looking to dump expiring contracts, trying to make immediate improvements, hoping to shake a team out of a funk and wheeling and dealing GMs), to be active though that doesn't mean they will deal:

Boston Celtics: Danny Ainge loves to deal, and the roster right now isn't good enough to make any noise in the playoffs — that's if the Celtics reach the playoffs.

Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavaliers have assets (draft picks) and center Anderson Varejao, but general manager Chris Grant holds the cards and won't be forced into a deal.

Los Angeles Clippers: See Sam's answer.

Los Angeles Lakers: GM Mitch Kupchak loves to deal and has been savvy when it comes to major acquisitions.

Memphis Grizzlies: New ownership, new upper management and new front-office personnel could mean new faces on the roster.

Milwaukee Bucks: Mild-mannered GM John Hammond isn't afraid to pull the trigger on trades (Monta Ellis for Andrew Bogut) and will be on the lookout for a deal. Where the Bucks are in the standings at the trade deadline will impact their decision.

Orlando Magic: Like the Cavaliers, Orlando has assets, in draft picks and players, and GM Rob Hennigan already has proven to be shrewd and patient.

Toronto Raptors: GM Bryan Colangelo rode out early season controversy and now he can continue the effort to rebuild Toronto and turn it into a team that competes for a playoff spot.

Who's the biggest name player to be traded?

Sam: At this rate, I'd have to go with Raptors big man Andrea Bargnani. The 2006 No. 1 pick has underperformed with the Raptors and is seen as their best chance of making a significant upgrade of some sort. He may miss another month with an elbow injury, but it's not expected to be a serious setback. The more damaging revelation is that the Raptors are 8-2 since Bargnani has been out.

Jeff: If Toronto can find a taker for the $22.25 million left on Bargnani's deal for 2013-14 and 2014-15 and the Raptors can receive something serviceable in return, he's gone. Pau Gasol's name will pop up in trade talks too, and it will have to be a perfect deal – but remember Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak has found them before. Don't rule out Milwaukee Bucks guard Monta Ellis either.

What's the biggest story line of the second half?

Sam: Big shocker here: the Lakers.

It goes well beyond the question of whether they'll trade Gasol or anyone else. Even if they stand pat, it will be fascinating to see if they can turn things around and becoming formidable by the time the playoffs arrive. As for Dwight Howard's part in all this, I'll admit my surprise that he's not showing more signs of discontent.

Howard, who will be a free agent this summer, continues to make it sound like a foregone conclusion that he'll re-sign with the Lakers no matter how this turns out. The 15-16 Lakers are currently one game out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the West.

Jeff: Team-wise, it's the Brooklyn Nets. Owner Mikhail Prokhorov has put significant pressure on the Nets not only to win, but win big. His goal coming into the season was the conference semifinals, which is unlikely now. The pressure hasn't subsided with the firing of coach Avery Johnson, and the speculation about Brooklyn's next coach — if interim coach P.J. Carlesimo doesn't get the job — will remain a regular topic.

Player-wise, it's who wins the MVP award: The Heat's LeBron James or Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant?

Who will be the top seeds in each conference?What potential longshot can make a run in the playoffs?

The Miami Heat's LeBron James guards the Oklahoma City Thunder's Kevin Durant (35). The two teams could very well meet again in this year's finals.(Photo: J. Pat Carter, AP)

Sam: In the West, I'm going with Oklahoma City (24-7). The Thunder have been the most consistent, having lost two consecutive games just once this year and boasting a formula that's tough to beat every time out. In the East, I'll still assume Miami can only get better from here. The Heat's defensive decline is puzzling, but the combination of veteran minds, a quality coach and the urgency that comes with February, March and April should lead to them rectifying that situation. Right?

As for a longshot, the Warriors are my wild card. The All-Star caliber consistency of Stephen Curry and David Lee combined with the depth and leadership of players like Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry makes this group extremely dangerous going forward, and even more so when Bogut gets back.

Jeff: Going on out a limb here. OK, maybe not a limb, but a sturdy branch. OK, maybe not a study branch but the trunk of a redwood: Miami and Oklahoma City.

Longshots who can make a run? If the Lakers can get into the playoffs, they can be dangerous. But they have a long way to go to get there. In 11th place in the West, the Lakers need a strong run just to reach the playoffs. It's not uncommon for the eighth seed in the West to win 50 games. Even in last season's 66-game season, the eighth seed in the West had a winning percentage of .545. For the Lakers to be in the .545 area, they would have to finish the season 30-21. Don't sleep on the Denver Nuggets or Minnesota Timberwolves, as long as they are healthy, in the playoffs. Depending on how Derrick Rose is when he gets back, the Chicago Bulls have the ability to make a run. Despite their troubles so far, every playoff coach in the East will not be thrilled about playing the Boston Celtics, if the Celtics make it to the playoffs.

Who wins the title?

Sam: Good gracious, these waters are muddied. Impressive though the San Antonio Spurs have been, recent history tells us that something will lead to their ultimate demise. The Clippers are for real, but scouts I've talked to agree with Sir Charles Barkley's recent assessment on TNT that their offensive deficiencies in the halfcourt offense will hurt them when the game slows down in the playoffs.

So the not-so-confident prediction is this: While the transcendent play of LeBron James may ultimately prove me wrong, the Thunder look more formidable than all the rest and will win it all.

Durant has evolved into that next-level type of superstar and may wind up taking James' MVP honor trophy off his mantle, and the ability of him and his teammates to transition after the late-October James Harden trade with Houston that put Kevin Martin in his place has been remarkable.

Jeff: Miami, but LeBron James needs more help from the point guard position and on defense, which did improve in December but still can be much better. James has been on one impressive run, and as Doc Rivers noted at the beginning of the season, once James got one title, it's going to be very difficult to prevent him from getting his second.

What are your thoughts on trades, story lines and who will win? Tell us in the comments.