Archives for July 2017

The markets are still in a mixed mode, the Dow trading positive and the NASDAQ trading negative. The T-line continues to act as a relevant factor. Numerous stocks and indexes that moved back up from lower opens on Friday to the T-line area are not getting confirmation Today. The trading environment remains the same, each individual stock chart needs to be analyzed on its own. Specific stocks and sectors continue to show strength or weakness in this market. There is no overall consensus of the market direction.

CRA International Inc. (CRAI)

Over the next 13 weeks, CRA International Inc. has on average historically fallen by 4.7% based on the past 19 years of stock performance.

CRA International Inc. has fallen lower by an average 4.7% in 10 of those 19 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 52%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for CRA International Inc., based on historical prices, is 2 weeks. Should CRA International Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 20% could result.

Netgear Inc. (NTGR)

Chart for NTGR

Over the next 13 weeks, Netgear Inc. has on average historically risen by 4.3% based on the past 14 years of stock performance.

Netgear Inc. has risen higher by an average 4.3% in 7 of those 14 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 50%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Netgear Inc., based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Netgear Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 151% could result.

Tree.Com, Inc. (TREE)

Chart for TREE

Over the next 13 weeks, Tree.Com, Inc. has on average historically risen by 8.9% based on the past 8 years of stock performance.

Tree.Com, Inc. has risen higher by an average 8.9% in 4 of those 8 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 50%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Tree.Com, Inc., based on historical prices, is 5 weeks. Should Tree.Com, Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 130% could result.

The T-line has illustrated that it is a very effective trend indicator. Any stock positions that traded below the T-line when the market started selling off clearly indicated the buyers had disappeared and probably would not come back into the trades until prices came back up above the T-line. The combination of a candlestick sell signal and a close/trading below the T-line gets you out of trades without the emotional questioning. Although the Dow is maintaining its trend, not selling off Today with any great strength, the other indexes are below the T-line. Expect a sideways motion in this market until Washington has better results coming from our illustrious representatives.

Altra Holdings, Inc. (AIMC)

Over the next 13 weeks, Altra Holdings, Inc. has on average historically fallen by 6.6% based on the past 10 years of stock performance.

Altra Holdings, Inc. has fallen lower by an average 6.6% in 6 of those 10 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 60%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Altra Holdings, Inc., based on historical prices, is 1 week. Should Altra Holdings, Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 77% could result.

Newmont (NEM)

Chart for NEM

Over the next 13 weeks, Newmont has on average historically risen by 4.1% based on the past 33 years of stock performance.

Newmont has risen higher by an average 4.1% in 18 of those 33 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 54%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Newmont, based on historical prices, is 10 weeks. Should Newmont stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 31% could result.

The markets are starting to show some warning flags. The transportation index is selling off excessively strong. The NASDAQ has Gapped Up in the overbought condition. AMZN has Gapped Up, FB has Gapped Up. Exuberance is starting to creep into the markets. Be careful, these are signs of potential reversals. Be ready to take profits on trades that might start showing sell signals in the overbought condition.

Today’s Gap Up positive trading in the Dow is forming a Bullish Flutter Kicker Signal. Although the markets are at all-time highs, if the Bullish Flutter Kicker Signal persists going into the end of the day, this will be a strong indication there is still more upside. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 continue to move in their slow steady uptrend, currently not showing any major change of investor sentiment.

Yesterday the Dow is down and the NASDAQ was up. Today the Dow is up and the NASDAQ is down. Clearly indicating there is no definite bullish consensus in the overall market, merely funds shifting from sector to sector. When the market remains indecisive/choppy, the combination of candlestick signals being confirmed by the T-line becomes a good probability trend indicator.

ESPERION THERAPEUTICS (ESPR)

Over the next 13 weeks, ESPERION THERAPEUTICS has on average historically risen by 4.1% based on the past 4 years of stock performance.

ESPERION THERAPEUTICS has risen higher by an average 4.1% in 2 of those 4 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 50%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for ESPERION THERAPEUTICS, based on historical prices, is 37 weeks. Should ESPERION THERAPEUTICS stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 276% could result.

Galapagos (GLPG)

Chart for GLPG

Over the next 13 weeks, Galapagos has on average historically fallen by 4.7% based on the past 6 years of stock performance.

Galapagos has fallen lower by an average 4.7% in 4 of those 6 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 66%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Galapagos, based on historical prices, is 46 weeks. Should Galapagos stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 58% could result.

Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT)

Chart for SRPT

Over the next 13 weeks, Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. has on average historically risen by 39.3% based on the past 20 years of stock performance.

Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. has risen higher by an average 39.3% in 12 of those 20 years over the subsequent 13 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 60%

The holding period that leads to the greatest annualized return for Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc., based on historical prices, is 12 weeks. Should Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. stock move in the future similarly to its average historical movement over this duration, an annualized return of 226% could result.

Summer doldrums or consolidation? It doesn’t matter, currently the markets are not showing any great strength one way or the other. This is probably a function of it be in the middle of the summer and there is nothing currently that is stimulating Bullish or Bearish sentiment. In these market conditions, holding existing positions require the simple trend analysis, our long positions remaining above the T-line and are short positions remaining below the T-line. Adding any new positions requires very compelling buy or sell signals. Anticipate some boredom.

The hanging man signal that formed in the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 Yesterday provided a little bit of a warning of potential profit-taking if the markets opened lower Today. There are no significant signals in. Those indexes that would indicate a major change of investor sentiment, the NASDAQ is still trading above the 3T-line. The Dow is currently trading below the T-line. If it closes at the lower end of today’s trading range, that would show a breach of the Frypan Bottom trajectory that had been remaining above the T-line. That pattern requires the Dow to close above the T-line Today to maintain the Frypan Bottom Analysis. A close below the T-line would imply more sideways movement on a short-term time frame.