Two scenarios for Nor'easter next week

By Eric Berger |
November 3, 2012

The overnight forecast models have come into somewhat better agreement in regard to the possibility of a Nor'easter striking areas already hard hit by Hurricane Sandy.

Looking at the range of global forecast models, including those produced by the United States, Canada, Europe and the United Kingdom, there emerge two possible scenarios. First of all, it's worth stating this clearly: This storm will not be nearly as powerful or destructive as Sandy, and it very likely won't be close. However, it may affect already vulnerable areas, so it's worth discussing.

Here's a map (please excuse my inelegant MS Paint skills) showing the range of forecast possibilities for the Nor'easter, which begins as a low-pressure system off the Carolinas on Tuesday evening:

The good news with the models is that the European forecast system, which is the left-most of the models, no longer shows the Nor'easter's core moving inland into the mid-Atlantic states, but rather keeps it offshore for the most part. Other models keep the storm further out to sea, with diminished effects.

Right now the most likely scenario for the New York City metro area is a heightened chance of rain on Wednesday, Wednesday night and Thursday, with winds gusting to about 30 mph. If the storm moves closer to the city those wind values will rise, especially for Long Island and eastern Connecticut.

Fortunately for areas hardest hit by Sandy's surge, at this time the storm's movement will coincide with relatively low astronomical tides. It's possible tides could be 2 to 3 feet higher than normal on Wednesday and Thursday. Inland areas could see a considerable snowstorm from this event.

I will update tomorrow when hopefully there is further clarity in the forecast models.