>> Friday, June 3, 2016

PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz

A week after
his landslide presidential victory, Rodrigo “Digong” Duterte’s cabinet is
shaping up: a mixture of business leaders, leftists, communists, political
allies, and personal friends. On the surface it looks like a
broad-spectrum government reaching out to all sectors of the country.

That’s good… at least on paper. But at a closer scrutiny, it
reveals a master chess player who is lining up his pieces adroitly to achieve
“tunay na pagbabago” – real change – which he promised during the campaign.

Indeed, Duterte is already raising eyebrows in political circles.
While there are the usual skeptics, the reactions are overwhelmingly positive
with people hoping that he’d deliver on his promises, which detractors say are impossible
to accomplish. But to the common people – the masa – they welcome the
radical changes that he vowed to make, which begs the question: Can he
deliver?

Or are these just promises meant to be broken… just like what
traditional politicians – trapos – do all the time? But the people have
been too forgiving – and forgetful -- and continue to elect trapos year after
year. But this time around, they demonstrated their frustration and anger
at the political establishment by voting for a man who admittedly used
unorthodox methods, to say it mildly, to rid Davao City of criminality during
his term as mayor for two decades.

During a campaign rally, he vowed to kill criminals, saying: “The drug
pushers, kidnappers, robbers, find them all and arrest them. If they resist,
kill them all.” And to emphasize his point, he told the crowd, “Go ahead
and charge me with murder, so I could also kill you.”

At another rally, he promised to “take out” 100,000 criminals and dump
them in the Manila Bay so “fish will grow fat.” Ordinarily, people would
cringe at that kind of vulgarity. But to those who are fed up with the
impunity of criminality and corruption, his blunt warnings give them hope that
finally there is one fearless leader who was determined to do whatever it would
take to protect the people.

Mandate

Indeed, if one has to characterize Duterte’s landslide – nay, tsunami –
victory over his four rivals, it’s a protest vote against the corrupt
government that the people believed had betrayed the sacred covenant of the
EDSA people power revolution 30 years ago. The people see in Duterte
someone who has the balls to do the unconventional way to achieve social
justice.

While Duterte’s overwhelming victory on Election Day may be deemed as a
mandate to pursue the things he promised by whatever means he’d chose, there is
the danger of failure, which could end his reign as dramatic as his rise to
power. He promised early in his campaign that he would eradicate crime
and corruption in three to six months, which the people bought hook, line and
sinker. They pinned their hopes on this singular promise and expected him
to deliver, not a day longer than six months! But what if he
failed?

A failure six months into his presidency could wreck his administration
beyond repair, just like what happened to his three predecessors, one of which
was ousted and another one is currently in detention facing plunder charges,
which makes one wonder: Short of declaring martial law, what’s his game plan?

It’s a good economic plan and it is doable. However, its success
hinges on the elimination of corruption. He promised that his
administration would vigorously prosecute those who engage in corrupt
practices. But isn’t this what all his predecessors promised but failed
to do?

Can he fire and prosecute – no exceptions -- his cabinet members and
their underlings, most of whom are his political allies or personal friends, if
they engage in corruption? Can he stop jueteng, which he promised
to do, and prosecute the jueteng lords who are protected by powerful
politicians?

If he has the political will to punish erring subordinates, then he has
won half the battle. If so, we should see some of his appointees’ heads
rolling within six months, because there will always be those who would be
tempted by the aphrodisiacal smell of dirty money. If not, he can then kiss
his entire promises goodbye and govern the country just like some of his
predecessors… that is, corrupt to the core.

It’s interesting to note that Duterte has made at least 21 political
appointees, most of whom have links to powerful political figures. Ten
were appointees or allies of former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, six are
Duterte’s personal friends or classmates, one is the son of Nacionalista Party
stalwart Manny Villar, and four posts are reserved for members of the Communist
Party of the Philippines (CPP) under Jose Ma. Sison.

Digong’s gambit

And talking of communists, China’s ambassador to the Philippines Zhao
Jianhua paid Duterte a courtesy call in Davao City on May 16, a day after
Duterte said he was open to “bilateral talks” with Beijing over the territorial
disputes in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea).

Zhao congratulated Duterte on his victory and expressed his country’s
expectation of working with Duterte’s administration to “properly deal with the
differences, deepen traditional friendship, and promote mutually beneficial
cooperation, so as to bring the bilateral ties forward.”

Although Duterte was open to negotiating directly with China, he had
made patriotic statements during the campaign about Philippine sovereignty over
the disputed territories. To drive his point, he said he would ride a ski
jet to the Scarborough Shoal and plant a Philippine flag.

The following day after Zhao’s visit, U.S. President Barack Obama called
Duterte personally to congratulate him also. Duterte told Obama that he
is open to having bilateral talks with China on the disputed territories if the
current efforts to resolve the issue failed. However, he assured Obama
that the Philippines will continue her mutual interests and is allied with the Western
World on the West Philippine Sea row.

During an interview with the media, Duterte said he will hold a steady
course on the territorial dispute with China in the West Philippine Sea, and he
is in no hurry to quit the multilateral approach pursued by President Benigno
Aquino’s outgoing administration.

He said that if the multilateral approach stalls after two or three
years, then he would proceed with bilateral talks. Is this a signal to
Obama that if the U.S. cannot stop China in the West Philippine Sea, he’d
unilaterally negotiate a settlement with China?

It’s noteworthy to mention that during the campaign he suggested that he
was willing to set aside the Philippines’ claims if China agreed to build
railways across the Philippines and hold joint exploration for resources in the
disputed waters.

With all these mixed signals, Duterte seems to be playing his cards
close to his chest. We can see his opening gambit but nobody knows how
he’s going to play the end game. And in between his opening gambit and
end game, his brand of politics will manifest itself. (PerryDiaz@gmail.com)