With just one week left in the college football regular season, the college football rankings should be more precise than ever this week. And, as members of the national media are becoming more apt to notice, it appears we've got a Big 4, not a Big 3. With a blowout victory over rival Utah last night, TCU now is within half a point of Florida and Alabama, while the Horned Frogs' in-state rival now have a field-goal lead over all schools.

A quick review of the SRS system. All games are included, even games against FCS opponents. The SRS is simply the sum of a team's margin of victory and its strength of schedule. Strength of schedule is easily calculated; it's the average SRS rating of all of a team's opponents (iterated hundreds of times to ensure that we get "true" strength of schedule ratings). Margin of victory could be easy to calculate, except I've decided to adjust the typical MOV in order to give us more accurate results. In addition to giving each road team three points, there's a cap and a floor for each game. Wins of fewer than 7 points (after including HFA) are counted 7-point wins; wins of greater than 24 points are counted as the average of 24 points and the actual margin of victory (after including HFA). The only exception is FCS games are uncapped.

rank

team

conf

conf rk

Gms

MOV

SOS

SRS

W

L

1

Texas

B12

1

10

24.7

46.0

70.7

10

0

2

Florida

SEC

1

10

21.3

45.8

67.1

10

0

3

Alabama

SEC

2

10

18.0

49.0

67.0

10

0

4

TCU

MWC

1

10

23.6

43.2

66.7

10

0

5

Oklahoma

B12

2

10

16.8

47.0

63.7

6

4

6

Oregon

P10

1

10

14.2

49.3

63.5

8

2

7

Virginia Tech

ACC

1

10

11.0

51.5

62.5

7

3

8

Cincinnati

BigE

1

10

20.9

41.3

62.2

10

0

9

Georgia Tech

ACC

2

11

12.0

49.9

61.9

10

1

10

Clemson

ACC

3

10

14.2

47.4

61.6

7

3

11

Boise St

WAC

1

10

22.7

38.7

61.3

10

0

12

Ohio State

B10

1

11

15.0

43.9

58.9

9

2

13

Nebraska

B12

3

10

12.1

46.4

58.5

7

3

14

Stanford

P10

2

10

10.5

47.6

58.1

7

3

15

Arkansas

SEC

3

10

10.5

47.6

58.0

6

4

16

Miami FL

ACC

4

10

7.2

50.7

57.9

7

3

17

Pittsburgh

BigE

2

10

15.3

42.2

57.5

9

1

18

Mississippi

SEC

4

10

13.3

43.8

57.1

7

3

19

Penn State

B10

2

11

15.4

41.0

56.4

9

2

20

LSU

SEC

5

10

10.0

46.3

56.3

8

2

21

Oklahoma St

B12

4

10

11.4

44.8

56.2

8

2

22

Southern Cal

P10

3

10

6.0

49.1

55.0

7

3

23

Texas Tech

B12

5

10

11.2

43.7

54.9

6

4

24

Tennessee

SEC

6

10

6.6

48.2

54.8

5

5

25

Oregon St

P10

4

10

7.5

47.2

54.7

7

3

26

California

P10

5

10

8.2

46.4

54.6

7

3

27

Arizona

P10

6

9

7.4

46.8

54.3

6

3

28

Boston College

ACC

5

10

8.4

45.7

54.1

7

3

29

Iowa

B10

3

11

6.9

46.7

53.6

9

2

30

Florida St

ACC

6

10

0.9

52.1

53.0

5

5

31

Auburn

SEC

7

11

5.9

46.7

52.6

7

4

32

Missouri

B12

6

10

5.9

46.7

52.6

6

4

33

Brigham Young

MWC

2

10

11.5

41.1

52.6

8

2

34

Notre Dame

INDY

1

10

4.3

47.5

51.8

6

4

35

Georgia

SEC

8

10

2.1

49.7

51.7

6

4

36

Wisconsin

B10

4

10

7.4

44.3

51.7

8

2

37

Air Force

MWC

3

11

14.5

37.1

51.6

7

4

38

North Carolina

ACC

7

10

6.3

45.2

51.5

7

3

39

West Virginia

BigE

3

10

6.6

44.5

51.1

7

3

40

Nevada

WAC

2

10

10.2

40.2

50.3

7

3

41

Connecticut

BigE

4

9

5.4

44.7

50.1

4

5

42

Utah

MWC

4

10

8.5

41.5

50.0

8

2

43

South Carolina

SEC

9

11

0.1

49.7

49.8

6

5

44

UCLA

P10

7

10

0.2

49.4

49.6

5

5

45

Michigan St

B10

5

11

6.5

43.1

49.5

6

5

46

Wake Forest

ACC

8

11

-1.1

50.5

49.4

4

7

47

Houston

CUSA

1

10

10.9

38.3

49.2

8

2

48

Central Michigan

MAC

1

10

14.8

34.2

49.0

8

2

49

Fresno St

WAC

3

10

8.4

40.6

48.9

6

4

50

Navy

INDY

2

11

6.4

42.3

48.7

8

3

51

Kentucky

SEC

10

10

4.5

44.1

48.5

6

4

52

South Florida

BigE

5

9

8.7

39.5

48.2

6

3

53

Arizona St

P10

8

10

2.3

45.3

47.6

4

6

54

Mississippi St

SEC

11

10

-1.0

48.3

47.4

4

6

55

Rutgers

BigE

6

9

13.2

34.2

47.3

7

2

56

Kansas

B12

7

10

3.5

43.8

47.3

5

5

57

Texas A&M

B12

8

10

0.4

45.7

46.1

5

5

58

Washington

P10

9

10

-7.6

52.9

45.3

3

7

59

Kansas St

B12

9

11

2.0

43.0

45.1

6

5

60

East Carolina

CUSA

2

9

2.8

42.0

44.9

5

4

61

Minnesota

B10

6

11

-2.5

47.2

44.8

6

5

62

Baylor

B12

10

10

-3.2

47.6

44.4

4

6

63

Virginia

ACC

9

10

-4.9

49.1

44.2

3

7

64

Southern Miss

CUSA

3

10

8.8

35.0

43.8

6

4

65

Purdue

B10

7

11

-3.1

46.8

43.7

4

7

66

North Carolina St

ACC

10

10

1.0

42.2

43.2

4

6

67

Northern Illinois

MAC

2

10

11.7

31.1

42.8

7

3

68

Temple

MAC

3

10

8.4

34.3

42.7

8

2

69

Michigan

B10

8

11

2.4

40.2

42.7

5

6

70

Central Florida

CUSA

4

10

0.7

41.7

42.4

6

4

71

Tulsa

CUSA

5

9

5.8

36.6

42.4

4

5

72

Duke

ACC

11

10

0.7

41.7

42.4

5

5

73

Iowa St

B12

11

11

-1.1

43.4

42.3

6

5

74

Troy

SunB

1

10

3.4

38.9

42.3

7

3

75

Marshall

CUSA

6

10

-0.1

41.9

41.9

5

5

76

Bowling Green

MAC

4

10

-0.3

40.9

40.6

5

5

77

Middle Tennessee St

SunB

2

10

5.3

35.2

40.5

7

3

78

Louisiana Tech

WAC

4

10

0.4

40.0

40.4

3

7

79

SMU

CUSA

7

10

-0.4

40.5

40.1

6

4

80

Colorado

B12

12

10

-6.3

45.8

39.5

3

7

81

Ohio U.

MAC

5

10

4.8

34.7

39.5

7

3

82

Northwestern

B10

9

11

1.7

37.6

39.3

7

4

83

Illinois

B10

10

10

-5.7

44.9

39.3

3

7

84

Vanderbilt

SEC

12

11

-6.8

45.4

38.7

2

9

85

Indiana

B10

11

11

-3.5

42.1

38.6

4

7

86

Idaho

WAC

5

11

-2.6

40.3

37.7

7

4

87

Louisiana-Monroe

SunB

3

10

1.7

35.5

37.2

6

4

88

Alabama-Birmingham

CUSA

8

10

-1.9

38.9

37.0

5

5

89

Louisville

BigE

7

10

-6.5

43.2

36.7

4

6

90

Utah St

WAC

6

10

-3.3

39.8

36.5

3

7

91

Colorado St

MWC

5

10

-8.9

45.2

36.3

3

7

92

Wyoming

MWC

6

10

-6.5

42.5

36.0

5

5

93

Syracuse

BigE

8

10

-8.9

44.9

36.0

3

7

94

UNLV

MWC

7

11

-7.1

42.8

35.7

4

7

95

San Diego St

MWC

8

10

-4.6

40.3

35.7

4

6

96

Maryland

ACC

12

10

-12.3

47.8

35.5

2

8

97

Buffalo

MAC

6

10

-2.8

38.0

35.2

3

7

98

Arkansas St

SunB

4

9

0.6

33.5

34.0

2

7

99

Hawai`i

WAC

7

10

-4.6

38.3

33.7

4

6

100

UTEP

CUSA

9

10

-6.2

39.6

33.4

3

7

101

Kent St

MAC

7

10

-0.7

34.0

33.3

5

5

102

Western Michigan

MAC

8

11

-2.1

35.3

33.2

5

6

103

Florida Atlantic

SunB

5

9

-6.1

38.8

32.7

3

6

104

Toledo

MAC

9

10

-9.3

39.3

30.0

4

6

105

Louisiana-Lafayette

SunB

6

10

-5.6

35.3

29.7

5

5

106

Florida Int'l

SunB

7

10

-7.6

37.2

29.6

3

7

107

Memphis

CUSA

10

10

-11.3

40.6

29.3

2

8

108

Washington St

P10

10

10

-22.6

50.8

28.2

1

9

109

San José St

WAC

8

9

-19.1

46.9

27.9

1

8

110

Miami OH

MAC

10

11

-15.4

43.0

27.7

1

10

111

Akron

MAC

11

10

-10.0

37.7

27.7

2

8

112

Army

INDY

3

10

-7.0

34.2

27.3

4

6

113

North Texas

SunB

8

10

-10.0

36.3

26.3

2

8

114

Ball St

MAC

12

10

-9.2

35.4

26.2

1

9

115

New Mexico

MWC

9

10

-18.3

42.6

24.3

0

10

116

Tulane

CUSA

11

10

-16.3

39.6

23.4

3

7

117

Rice

CUSA

12

10

-20.0

42.9

22.9

1

9

118

New Mexico St

WAC

9

10

-15.8

36.7

20.9

3

7

119

Eastern Michigan

MAC

13

10

-20.7

39.4

18.8

0

10

120

Western Kentucky

SunB

9

10

-20.0

38.0

18.1

0

10

Conference ratings:

conf

rat

SEC

54.1

B12

51.8

ACC

51.4

P10

51.1

BigE

48.6

B10

47.1

MWC

43.2

WAC

39.7

CUSA

37.5

MAC

34.4

SunB

32.3

With six teams still undefeated, let's take a closer look at how the SRS came to grade each of those 6 teams. The tables below list each team's performance (according to the SRS) from best to worst.

Month

Day

Tm1

PF

Tm2

PF

home?

fcs gm?

MOV

SOS

SRS

10

31

Texas

41

Oklahoma St

14

no

no

27

56.2

83.2

10

24

Texas

41

Missouri

7

no

no

30.5

52.6

83.1

11

14

Texas

47

Baylor

14

no

no

30

44.4

74.4

9

26

Texas

64

UTEP

7

yes

no

39

33.4

72.4

10

17

Texas

16

Oklahoma

13

neu

no

7

63.7

70.7

11

7

Texas

35

Central Florida

3

yes

no

26.5

42.4

68.9

9

5

Texas

59

Louisiana-Monroe

20

yes

no

30

37.2

67.2

9

12

Texas

41

Wyoming

10

no

no

29

36.0

65.0

9

19

Texas

34

Texas Tech

24

yes

no

7

54.9

61.9

10

10

Texas

38

Colorado

14

yes

no

21

39.5

60.5

Month

Day

Tm1

PF

Tm2

PF

home?

fcs gm?

MOV

SOS

SRS

9

26

Florida

41

Kentucky

7

no

no

30.5

48.5

79.0

9

12

Florida

56

Troy

6

yes

no

35.5

42.3

77.8

10

31

Florida

41

Georgia

17

neu

no

24

51.7

75.7

10

10

Florida

13

LSU

3

no

no

13

56.3

69.3

9

5

Florida

62

Charleston Southern

3

yes

yes

56

11.1

67.1

11

14

Florida

24

South Carolina

14

no

no

13

49.8

62.8

9

19

Florida

23

Tennessee

13

yes

no

7

54.8

61.8

10

24

Florida

29

Mississippi St

19

no

no

13

47.4

60.4

11

7

Florida

27

Vanderbilt

3

yes

no

21

38.7

59.7

10

17

Florida

23

Arkansas

20

yes

no

0

58.0

58.0

Month

Day

Tm1

PF

Tm2

PF

home?

fcs gm?

MOV

SOS

SRS

9

26

Alabama

35

Arkansas

7

yes

no

24.5

58.0

82.5

10

10

Alabama

22

Mississippi

3

no

no

22

57.1

79.1

11

14

Alabama

31

Mississippi St

3

no

no

27.5

47.4

74.9

9

5

Alabama

34

Virginia Tech

24

neu

no

10

62.5

72.5

10

3

Alabama

38

Kentucky

20

no

no

21

48.5

69.5

11

7

Alabama

24

LSU

15

yes

no

7

56.3

63.3

10

17

Alabama

20

South Carolina

6

yes

no

11

49.8

60.8

9

19

Alabama

53

North Texas

7

yes

no

33.5

26.3

59.8

10

24

Alabama

12

Tennessee

10

yes

no

0

54.8

54.8

9

12

Alabama

40

Florida Int'l

14

yes

no

23

29.6

52.6

Month

Day

Tm1

PF

Tm2

PF

home?

fcs gm?

MOV

SOS

SRS

10

24

TCU

38

Brigham Young

7

no

no

29

52.6

81.6

11

14

TCU

55

Utah

28

yes

no

24

50.0

74.0

11

7

TCU

55

San Diego St

12

no

no

35

35.7

70.7

9

26

TCU

14

Clemson

10

no

no

7

61.6

68.6

10

31

TCU

41

UNLV

0

yes

no

31

35.7

66.7

10

17

TCU

44

Colorado St

6

yes

no

29.5

36.3

65.8

9

12

TCU

30

Virginia

14

no

no

19

44.2

63.2

10

3

TCU

39

SMU

14

yes

no

22

40.1

62.1

10

10

TCU

20

Air Force

17

no

no

7

51.6

58.6

9

19

TCU

56

Texas St-San Marcos

21

yes

yes

32

23.9

55.9

Month

Day

Tm1

PF

Tm2

PF

home?

fcs gm?

MOV

SOS

SRS

9

7

Cincinnati

47

Rutgers

15

no

no

29.5

47.3

76.8

9

12

Cincinnati

70

SE Missouri St

3

yes

yes

64

11.9

75.9

10

15

Cincinnati

34

South Florida

17

no

no

20

48.2

68.2

9

19

Cincinnati

28

Oregon St

18

no

no

13

54.7

67.7

10

24

Cincinnati

41

Louisville

10

yes

no

26

36.7

62.7

10

31

Cincinnati

28

Syracuse

7

no

no

24

36.0

60.0

9

26

Cincinnati

28

Fresno St

20

yes

no

7

48.9

55.9

10

3

Cincinnati

37

Miami OH

13

no

no

25.5

27.7

53.2

11

13

Cincinnati

24

West Virginia

21

yes

no

0

51.1

51.1

11

7

Cincinnati

47

Connecticut

45

yes

no

0

50.1

50.1

Month

Day

Tm1

PF

Tm2

PF

home?

fcs gm?

MOV

SOS

SRS

9

26

Boise St

49

Bowling Green

14

no

no

31

40.6

71.6

9

3

Boise St

19

Oregon

8

yes

no

8

63.5

71.5

10

24

Boise St

54

Hawai`i

9

no

no

36

33.7

69.7

9

18

Boise St

51

Fresno St

34

no

no

20

48.9

68.9

11

14

Boise St

63

Idaho

25

yes

no

29.5

37.7

67.2

9

12

Boise St

48

Miami OH

0

yes

no

34.5

27.7

62.2

10

31

Boise St

45

San José St

7

yes

no

29.5

27.9

57.4

11

6

Boise St

45

Louisiana Tech

35

no

no

13

40.4

53.4

10

14

Boise St

28

Tulsa

21

no

no

10

42.4

52.4

10

3

Boise St

34

UC-Davis

16

yes

yes

15

23.8

38.8

Final note: the biggest SRS win of the season occurred yesterday, with the Stanford pounding USC in the Coliseum. Not only were the 55 points the Cardinal scored the most by any Trojan opponent, but Stanford's adjusted margin of victory of 30.5 points combined with USC's rating of 55.0 gives Stanford an 85.5 point game, the most in college football this season. The previous best game was Oregon's 42-3 victory over Cal (84.6), which was also threatened this weekend by Oklahoma's 65-10 drubbing of Texas A&M (registering an 84.1 on the SRS Richter scale).

This entry was posted on Sunday, November 15th, 2009 at 10:44 am and is filed under College.
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FCS games are uncapped because otherwise just playing an FCS team would lower your score. So if Florida plays a team they're 60 points better than, and they win by 70, that would lower their rating (because of the cap) instead of improve their rating. Remember, a lot of these things are arbitrary -- picking 24 as a cut-off, splitting the actual margin and 24 when you have blowouts. I'm just trying to accomplish what feels "about right" to me.

As for the SRS, it used to sum to zero; that was when we aggregated all FCS schools. By no longer doing that, Florida is compared to the average college football team (all levels); so they're a lot better than 28 points better than "average". The important thing, however, isn't their score; it's their score relative to other teams. This says Florida is about even with TCU and Alabama and a little bit below Texas.