U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Recent Economic Indicators.

EIA used the August 2019 version of the IHS Markit macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic forecasts in STEO. Using the IHS Markit model, EIA forecasts real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 2.3% in 2019 and by 2.3% in 2020, compared with 2.9% growth in 2018.

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions.

EIA forecasts that, after rising by 2.7% in 2018, U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decline by 2.5% in 2019 and by 1.0% in 2020. In 2019, EIA forecasts that space cooling demand (as measured in cooling degree days) will be lower than in 2018, when it was 13% higher than the previous 10-year (2008–17) average. In addition, EIA expects U.S. CO2 emissions in 2019 to decline because the forecast share of electricity generated from natural gas and renewables is increasing while the forecast share generated from coal, which is a more carbon-intensive energy source, is decreasing.

Macroeconomics & CO2 Emissions Summary

2017

2018

2019projected

2020projected

aIncludes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste