With less than three weeks remaining before the Oct. 20 release of the season's first BCS standings, the teams in the top five of the polls might be in the best position. But with nearly two-thirds of the season still to come, the ranks of the unbeaten are sure to dwindle. We decided to rank the teams outside the top five of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll based on their likelihood of reaching the BCS National Championship Game on Jan. 6 in Pasadena, Calif.

1. Louisville (No. 7): The Cardinals have the highest floor of any unbeaten outside the top five and of course, by far the easiest schedule, giving them the best chance at finishing undefeated. Already passed in the poll by one-loss Georgia, Louisville could see its schedule be its undoing. The Cardinals could see one-loss Texas A&M pass them as the season goes on, and as we've seen in the last two years, it's plausible for a one-loss SEC team to not play in its conference championship game and still be in waiting for the BCS title game.

2. Oklahoma (No. 10): After last week's win in South Bend, the Sooners look to be very much for real. Although they have a number of tough Big 12 games (at Baylor and at Oklahoma State in particular) to come, finishing undefeated doesn't seem beyond the realm of possibility. But can they do it with an inexperienced quarterback in Blake Bell? With no conference championship game, Oklahoma avoids another potential pitfall.

3. Florida State (No. 8): Despite being ranked higher than Oklahoma right now and probably being a better overall team, the Seminoles have to make the trip to Clemson in two weeks. That game will derail one team's hopes for an undefeated season, but it is early enough that Florida State could conceivably fight its way back up in the polls even if it loses, though that would require plenty of other teams to trip. A win against Clemson could officially get Florida State in the national championship picture. Although games against Miami and Florida could be stumbling blocks, wins would surely move Florida State ahead of Louisville and whoever loses the Nov. 7 game between Oregon and Stanford in Palo Alto. Of course, the Seminoles would also have to win the ACC title game.

4. Baylor (No. 16): Starting the season unranked may be what does in Baylor. The Bears have the same conference schedule as Oklahoma, but being ranked so much lower isn't going to do them any good. Even if they stay unbeaten, they'll probably trail one-loss SEC teams in Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU and South Carolina until they have the chance to beat the Sooners in early November. A win in that game and chaos elsewhere near the top could open the door for the Bears.

5. Miami (No. 15): The Hurricanes don't have to face Clemson in regular-season conference play and already got their non-conference rivalry game with Florida out of the way. Their schedule isn't easy, traveling to Florida State and facing Coastal Division foes Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. If Miami makes it through as division champion, it still would have to play in the ACC title game, likely against Clemson or a rematch with Florida State. Is that too much to ask of the Hurricanes?

6. Fresno State (No. 21): With a win against Boise State, the Bulldogs may already have theire toughest game out of the way and look to have a clear path to an undefeated regular season. Plenty of teams ahead of them in the polls will lose over the course of the next eight weeks, and Fresno will keep moving up if it keeps winning, but a rematch with Boise State in the inaugural Mountain West title game could loom. A big question is how voters will look at Fresno having played just 11 regular-season games due to the flood-forced postponement of its game at Colorado.

7. Michigan (No. 17): The Wolverines have struggled to beat of the worst teams in the country in Akron and UConn their last two times out, very much diminishing their stock. Michigan is fortunate to avoid Wisconsin in conference play, and if it somehow gets through the regular season unbeaten, it would have to win the Big Ten title game, potentially a second meeting with Ohio State in seven days.

- Oregon State's Sean Mannion leads the nation in passing yards and touchdowns, while his top target Brandin Cooks leads the country in receptions, yards and touchdowns. They're the most lethal combo in college football.

- Saturday Down South's Kevin Duffey says the real reason attendance is down is that college football has become more nationally focused, as gap between how much we love our team and how much we love college football in general has narrowed.

Jesse Yomtov, a USA TODAY Sports writer and producer is on Twitter @JesseYomtov

Florida State Seminoles band members watch the cheerleaders perform during the second half against the Florida Gators at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Florida State won 37-7.
Steve Mitchell, USA TODAY Sports

Fresno State Bulldogs cheerleaders celebrate after the Bulldogs defeated the New Mexico Lobos to win the West Division of the Mountain West Conference at Bulldog Stadium.
Cary Edmondson, USA TODAY Sports

Fresno State Bulldogs cheerleader Courtney Bianchi celebrates in confetti after the Bulldogs defeated the New Mexico Lobos to win the West division of the Mountain West Conference at Bulldog Stadium.
Cary Edmondson, USA TODAY Sports

The Massachusetts Minutemen cheerleaders on the sideline during the game against the Northern Illinois Huskies in the second half at Gillette Stadium. Northern Illinois defeated Massachusetts 63-19.
David Butler II, USA TODAY Sports

A Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets cheerleader looks at the scoreboard in the second half against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Bobby Dodd Stadium. Georgia Tech won 28-20.
Daniel Shirey Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

Virginia Tech Hokies cheerleaders cheer on the field between quarters during the game against the Western Carolina Catamounts at Lane Stadium. Virginia Tech defeated Western Carolina 45-3.
Jeremy Brevard, USA TODAY Sports