Sondhi Limthongkul is, not for the first time, facing a serious fight to stay out of gaol. Many New Mandala readers will already have noted yesterday’s news that he was convicted of fraud and received a twenty-year prison sentence.

He is now, as usually happens in Thailand under such circumstances, out on bail and we assume that an appeal will follow. If you want to get some more context on the situation then this report from ABC Radio Australia has plenty of details. It also features Giles Ji Ungpakorn and I talking about Sondhi’s role in Thai politics. Giles suggests that Sondhi may be sacrificed in a deal between Yingluck Shinawatra’s Pheua Thai government and the Thai army. That is — not doubt about it — an interesting possibility.

Three years ago, in the aftermath of an episode when Sondhi was more literally in the firing line, Andrew Walker and I wrote:

If diehard Yellow Shirts like Sondhi have found themselves vulnerable, and can no longer rely on their old friends, then the more dangerous plotting has probably only just begun.

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First of all, my opinion may be completely wrong because I have yet to listen to Ajarn Giles and Mr Farrelly’s talks, so I am completely ignorant of their analysis.

However, in my opinion my other friends who view the situation only at the surface, we tend to see this situation as one which the Court ruled in his favour. The evidence is sufficient to jail him; hence, it would be too absurd for the Courts to find him not guilty. Nevertheless, due to the fact that he is one of the ‘Thai elites’ on the yellow side, the Court gave him leniency by allowing him to be on parole instead of being jailed.

But again, I am completely ignorant of the deep analysis. Once I get my hands on the detailed analysis, my opinion may completely change.

sondhi will not be touched. it is nonsense to believe that he will serve one day in prison. There is no “sacrifice”. The prison sentence was purely theatre as the judgement by the amaat regime was made at the same time to keep 71 year old Surachai Sae Dan in prison for 7.5 years denying bail to all anti-112’ers.

I agree with Jim Taylor. At the moment when he was granted the bail (rumored to cost 10m baht?) I knew he would never serve a single day in prison. My personal conspiracy theory goes as far as to regard this sentence nothing but a fake show to urge the red shirts to drop their double standards accusation.

I would not be too sure that Sondhi may still be protected. Over the past year Sondhi has turned himself into a threat to his erstwhile backers most of whom he has alienated during his protests against the Abhisit government. In his vitriolic speeches he called many former Hiso PAD rally attendants as Hiso-PAD and not real PAD, he called Prayudh and the leadership of the military cowards, said Abhisit was worse than Thaksin, and verbally attacked people such as Dr. Chirmsak Pinthong.
As a result you could see that the area behind the stage during the 2011 rallies, previously visited by hordes of influential people and mostly off limits to journalists was now almost empty, and open to us journos (hardly anybody though bothered to report on the rallies).

Many allies and sections of the PAD have left the PAD over the past year, and joined up with Siam Samarki, such as Dr. Tul, Chirmsak Pinthong and other academics, the group of 40 senators, and important retired generals. What is now left in the PAD is now basically the rump “ASTV group”, and the allied Santi Asoke sect, which is still playing all anti Red/anti-Thaksin groups. Also the Democrat Party has withdrawn its support from the PAD, and given the hatred of the speeches in the rallies of the first half of 2011, i have certain doubts that these former allies can make up again. I cannot see military support for the PAD anymore, as was openly visible in 2006 and 2008.

All recent PAD meetings were numerically small, most attendants were elderly. Also Sondhi’s once powerful oratory skills declined. As it stands now – he is a shadow of his former self, and quite isolated. He may of course rise again (as he has shown several times in his speckled career), but presently he is not an actor in the game.

I would love to see one of these conspiracy theories actually proven with hard evidence one day. Seems like only a pattern can be discerned here, that if you have money and power you can get bail and avoid the shackles and ball and chain. His ultimate fate? 1. The appeal could last a long long time. Samak served as Prime Minister and then died before any decision on his appeal was made. 2. Maybe Sondhi will ultimately join Vatana of Klong Dan waste treatment corruption fame and godfather, convicted murderer, father of former tourism minister under Thaksin and father-in-law of current culture minister under Thaksin’s sister, Somchai Khunpluem (aka Kamnan Poh) in Cambodia where he can avoid his fate. The real issue seems to be that the whole justice system is so slow, requires lots of money and requires powerful people to support you sometimes (can cite instances of this), so people without money cannot use it, therefore not really a “justice” system.

Nick, the issue of Sondhi which you mention are over his loony behaviour, of course he will not be touched over references to monarchy for reasons people know about but cannot talk about. He has passed his use-by-date for the amaat/Abhisit. the case against him concerns corruption and massive financial malfeasance and dodgy corporate dealings since after 1997 financial crisis that could have brought elements of the country to its knees (and almost did). the court “had” (emphasis) to charge him for a lengthy jail time of life because the case was cut and dry but reduced to a triffling maximum in accordance to the law…But go to jail? not while the amaat still control nation at least

I only met Sondhi once, and Thaksin once, so can’t give any kind of meaningful impression other than first. However, calling Sondhi one of the elites I tend to feel uncomfortable about. Elites in Thailand to me do not include free-wheeling media barons. Elites, I think, are far more deeply entrenched and stand little chance of being shot at over 100 times in such an open manner.
As to Sondhi’s relationships with the Amart, again it seems to be talked more about than what is likely to be factual. Yes, he has relationships of a sort, but not those that include him in that sacred circle.

Sondhi will never go to prison. Neither did Samak, waiting the appeal of his defamation comnviction.

Perhaps you might like to ask about IEC and the money it borrowed from SK Telecom and strangely how it was re-lent to The M Group against the security of only PNs, and which was not repaid. This would of course be quite irrelevant.

Forget the law- money and power rules in the Land of Smile (sic)and always will!

Could swindlers be pardoned? Sondhi L. had been sentenced for financial fraud. That means game over. Sondhi L. said so publicly that he’s guilty as charged and at the mercy of the Thai courts (at least he chose to stay in Thailand to face the music.)

Good ending to the Sondhi L. saga that hopefully would severely defang PAD.

I agree with the assessment made above. Sondhi used to be the useful idiot, but now that he has outlived his usefulness and even threatens to embarrass some of the puppet players he will be dumped at the scrapyard of history.

Sondhi may not be the best friend of the Democrats or the military but I doubt if they will totally outcast him. After all, Sondhi still has a big potential to command a considerable size of street crowd, which the Democrats and other ammats can make use of from time to time.

We don’t really know what happened behind the scenes, a while ago Sondhi complianed about his ASTV was going to be bankcrupt – he fought for nothing but debt, but ASTV is still going. Who pays for him! I wonder if he uses this trick or blackmail to his backer(s). What secret is he carrying? We will see when the maddog (Sondhi) stays against the wall and bites someone back – if someone breaks the rule!