President Obama and his re-election team have prided themselves on their well-oiled get-out-the-vote effort. But a new study from the centrist think tank Third Way suggests Democrats are losing ground organizationally in nearly all of the key battleground states in the general election.

The group's analysis found that, in the eight politically-pivotal states that register voters by party, a significant number have left the Democratic party since 2008, with many choosing to register as independents. Over 825,000 registered Democrats in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania have departed the party rolls since President Obama's election in 2008, a much more significant share than the number of Republicans (378,000) who have done the same. Meanwhile, the number of registered independents has ticked upwards by 254,000.

"In 2012, Independents are likely to turn out in their largest numbers in 35 years, and President Obama will need those Independent votes even more than he did in 2008, if he hopes to be re-elected," Third Way analysts Lanae Erickson and Michelle Diggles write in the report.

The Democratic decline is especially stark in Iowa and Florida, two early Republican primary states where Democrats have lost significant ground. In Iowa, the number of registered Democrats has declined 7.9 percent since 2008, while the number of registered Republicans has increased by two percent. In the Sunshine State, Democratic registration decreased by five percent, while Republican registration dipped 2.2 percent.

In every one of the eight battleground states, Democrats lost ground to Republicans. (In Colorado, Republicans saw a larger rate of growth in voter registration than Democrats, 1.8 to 0.9 percent.)

The report underscores how much different 2012 will be for Obama than 2008. Back then, it was commonplace to hear how many new voters the Obama campaign was registering. Now, it looks like some of those voters, newly disenchanted, are leaving the party rolls.

The group's analysis found that, in the eight politically-pivotal states that register voters by party, a significant number have left the Democratic party since 2008, with many choosing to register as independents.

That doesn't guarantee they will vote for the GOP though. "Independendents" need to be convinced.

"In 2012, Independents are likely to turn out in their largest numbers in 35 years, and President Obama will need those Independent votes even more than he did in 2008, if he hopes to be re-elected,"

Highly unlikely that they'll vote Dem - why leave the party? They may simply not vote, or a certain number of them might be trying to cause problems in the GOP primaries. But this isn't good news for the 'Rats.

7
posted on 12/08/2011 10:44:36 PM PST
by Major Matt Mason
(The Chicago Way isn't the American Way.)

I think it’s an opportunity for conservatives, but they have to explain, for example, why Obama does not represent the interests of the middle class. If they don’t make their case effectively to independendents, we are in trouble.

Conventional wisdom is that the Republican presidential field is set, and that it is much too late for a new candidate to enter the race.

In years past, that would be absolutely correct. Over the last few decades, dozens of primaries and caucuses have been shoe-horned into the opening weeks of the election year, with the tendency on the Republican side for the front-running candidate to score a quick knockout.

But next year, the arrangement of the primary calendar is much different. It is less condensed at the front, much more loaded with events at the back, with the prospect of a viable, late-starting candidate quite real.

depends on the state. in many states you can’t be independent and vote in any other parties’ primary other than independent. I know I used to be one and always missed out in voting in the Republican primary. This is one reason I switched over. I am a conservative and wanted to insure my vote in the Republican arena.

11
posted on 12/08/2011 11:48:57 PM PST
by GOP Poet
(Time for Bambi and his commie crew to go.)

Ross Perot didn’t run to win; he ran to give a voice to many people not represented by the 2 segments of the one party we have (Republicrats). He won 19% of the vote - that is significant, and in my eyes justifies what he did (even though BJ Clinton was horrible). Clinton also learned from it, and was a better “Republican” than the one he followed.

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