The NSW Nationals are confident of winning in Dubbo, Tamworth and Port Macquarie.

Peter Draper in Tamworth and
Peter Besseling
in Port Macquarie look likely to be hit by a public backlash against their federal counterparts
Tony Windsor
and
Rob Oakeshott
, who backed a minority Labor government into power federally.

Fellow state independent and Sydney mayor
Clover Moore
will probably hold on to her seat but with a much slimmer margin against moderate Liberal candidate Adrian Bartels.
Richard Torbay
in the Northern Tablelands and
Greg Piper
in Lake Macquarie should win their seats easily as independents.

While the ranks of independents may be depleted, there are a few prospective newcomers. Local mayor
John Tate
will give Tourism Minister
Jodi McKay
a run for her money in Newcastle. And in recent polls, Gordon Bradbery is neck and neck with colourful Labor MP
Noreen Hay
in Wollongong.

Independent
Joe McGirr
is an outside chance to upset sitting MP Daryl McGuire in the safe Liberal seat of Wagga Wagga. McGirr, a doctor, has led a very focused campaign of getting the state’s largest inland city a new hospital. He has already had an impact with both major parties committing significant funding for hospital upgrades.

Meanwhile, former mayor of Leichhardt Maire Sheehan has muddied the waters in the inner west seat of Balmain. The current Leichhardt mayor and Greens candidate Jamie Parker is widely tipped to unseat Education Minister
Verity Firth
. Sheehan’s late decision to contest the seat could split the vote and put Firth back in the race.

In the upper house, high-profile independent
John Hatton
, a lower house MP for 22 years, has a chance of returning to politics.