Part of CSNPhilly.com

Terms of Service

Friday, March 20, 2009

Friday: Spring roster battles still too close to call

Today is Clout
Day on Beerleaguer, marking the official date it's acceptable to assess
spring training performance and draw responsible conclusions. The
Phillies will need an extension.

Once again, the calendar flips
to March 20 for our annual celebration of Clout Day, a day that might
cause many of you to throw up in your mouth a little. It all came about
- I don't know - two years ago when Clout (artist rendering right) tried to curb reader enthusiasm over scrubs who performed well in spring training. For the most part, the tactic
worked. We see far fewer springtime fantasies peppering the comments
thread, although one reader seems unusually high on 31-year-old career
minor leaguer Jason Ellison, who's in camp as a non-roster invitee. But that's okay; I've been in that boat before. When Beerleaguer was in its infancy, I predicted that outfielder Shawn Garrett would make the team as the
last man on the bench. Remember him? Neither does anyone else.

A year ago today, I posted a couple spring progress reports in an effort to draw
Clout Day conclusions. I'm not doing that again. Not one amounted to a
hill of beans. Based on nothing in particular, Carlos Ruiz was ready for a breakout season both
offensively and defensively, while Jayson Werth and his .176 Grapefruit
League slugging percentage were doomed for regression. On the mound,
Chad Durbin would flop, while Brett Myers would start hot.

After
all these years, Beerleaguer finally understands the point Clout was
trying to make. For 85 percent of the roster, spring training is a lot
of nonsense. For the other 15 percent, their fates have yet to be
decided and every moment counts. Charlie Manuel and Rich Dubee have each indicated that their
final selections won't be made until the very end of spring training,
meaning guys like Carlos Carrasco, who starts today in Jupiter, are
technically still alive.

Notes: Colleague and Facebook friend
Brian Startare will be signing his book, "Flyer'd Up," tomorrow from 5
to 8 p.m. at the Barnes & Noble in Deptford. While there, be sure
to pick up a copy of the Phillies 2009 Annual. ... Carson hosted a
blogger roundtable on WSBGMs today. Check it out here. ... Don't forget
to tune in to Howard Eskin's show this afternoon at 3:40 when we will
discuss the Phillies Annual. Listen to the live stream here. ... The Clout Day meet-up scheduled for
tonight at McFadden's generated so much buzz that the only definites
appear to be me and one other guy. So it's been postponed for a
later date during the season.

Game chat: Let's keep it here when the Phils take on the Cards. First pitch is 1:05 p.m.

BP did a study that only tentatively showed what can be projected based on spring training no. I think, with a guy like McClouth as prime example, if you out-SLG or out-OPS you career numbers by 200 (can't remember which) you might be due for a career year.

If I had my laptop handy I'd run through the roster and recheck that study. But I don't.

For some perspective about the significance of ST performance . . . last year's unheralded spring stud was one Casey Smith, a then 29-year old minor league utility infielder, who suddenly hit over .300 with a couple of homeruns and several huge games. If Doc had been at those games, he undoubtedly would have been on Beerleaguer proclaiming, "You can cite stats all you want, but I actually saw him play and this kid is the real deal."

Casey Smith, incidentally, went on to post a .436 in 300 AAA ABs last year. .436 sounds awfully impressive until you realize that it wasn't his batting average, but his OPS. His batting average was .170.

Not sure why this even matters or why am am even chiming in on this, but...

Mickey Morandini was called up Sept. 1, 1990. The Phillies incumbent 2B was an aging Tommy Herr who was hitting .264 on a bad team. Morandini at the time was viewed as one the the Phils better prospects and potentially the 2B of the future.

The fact that he was a Sept. call up that year was neither an emergency call up or a surprise to anyone (well anyone except for Doc I guess).

That is a pretty crummy bench. Besides the glaring issue of a right-handed bat off the bench, it really is limited in several other ways too. No one capable of playing CF, no real speed off the bench, and 1 decent PH option.

Frankly the one thing I don't understand is why the Phils would insist keeping a player like Cairo on the roster when they already have a guy like Bruntlett who can play 2B/SS.

I guess "versatility" is one of the buzzwords for the Phils even if they will take a player (Cairo) who hasn't been a useful MLB player in at least 2-3 years and another one (Bruntlett) is looks like he might be done being able to contribute at the MLB level last year offensively.

If this is the bench on Opening Day, then Amaro did a pretty crummy job of assembling it.

Wes: Exactly right. I mentioned this at the tail end of the previous thread:

Doc: "Mickey Morandini hit over .300 the first year he came up with the Phils. He was brought up as an emergency short-term fill-in from Scranton/Wilkes-Barre where he had been hitting in the low .200s and thought to be on his way out."

Doc, you need to check this chit out before you post.

MM hit .241 the first year he played, not .300, and at the time he was recalled he was hitting .260, not the low .200s. He was also considered one of their top prospects.

The Phils started him off in the Sally League, he hit .338, so they bumped him to Clearwater, he hit .302, so they jumped him to Reading and he hit .351.

The next year (1990) they put him at Scranton and he hit .260 with 16 SB and a league-leading 10 triples when he was recalled and spent the last 6 weeks of the season with the Phillies.

He hit .268/.338/.359 in an 11 year career with 6 seasons of double digit SBs and one of the better gloves in the NL.

And of course, one of Harry Kalas's most famous calls when he'd get a big hit or make a slick play: MICK-EEEEE MORANNN-DEEEENNEEEEE!!!

Tommy Herr . . . that isn't a name I have mentioned in a while. The Thon-Herr double play combo was pretty emblematic of those uber bad late 80s/early 90s Phils team. Washed up veterans galore and prospects (Jordan, Combs, etc) who largely turned almost never panned out.

MG: Agree totally on Cairo. Guy used to be a good fielder, isn't anymore, and despite what his ST stats say, he's a terrible bat as well. He can play 6 positions, but none well. I cannot believe that a better utility guy won't be available when cuts are made.

AWH: Excellent suggestion. I would further propose that Clout Day be renamed Tuffy Goosewich Day as it would signal the time to begin drawing conclusions about players who, except for spring training, would otherwise never be mentioned.

Any "roster battle" requires that someone get hurt and stay hurt. Otherwise, we're basically looking to fill the So Taguchi Missing Man Seat, and to keep Romero's seat warm. Given the lack of new talent in camp, that's a good thing.

Well I never thought of that angle. I guess I don't leap to the juiced theory so much anymore because testing has been beefed up. Of course we know that even the beefed up testing isn't so tough to get around. So I will agree that if that is the case, Ankiel is a douche.

The only things that I hope that substantially happens between Clout Day and Opening Day is that Hamels doesn't have to go on the DL to start the season and that Park struggles in his last start or two so that Happ gets the 5th starter spot/Parks heads to the pen.

15+ innings of solid control still hasn't sold me that Park is suddenly going to become an effective starter for the first time in several years.

Perhaps the Phils (just to be cautious) should put Hamels on the DL until April 15th or so and just use the other 4 starters until then. They aren't playing their top competion (aside from the Braves perhaps) so why not?

Howard "can't lefty pitching" does hold some weight and matters. Even in the data presented, Howard is at best mediocre.

More important point about Howard is that teams almost exclusively use a lefty against him now late in games even if the lefty is of marginal quality. Since most teams have at least 1 lefty in their pen, this does matter.

Just look at Howard's splits last year (don't have the time to break out his numbers against lefty relievers but likely they are terrible):

Taguchi was the 5th OF last year and had 88 ABs. Bourn was the 5th OF in '07 and had 119 ABs. So basically the 5th OF isn't all that important offensively given that they likely would only get a max of 125 ABs or so.

Nunez was the main backup INF in '07 (along with a part-time starter at 3B) and ended up with 252 ABs. Bruntlett was the main backup INF in '08 and ended up with 212 ABs.
Given that Utley has been injured the past 2 years and Feliz is a question mark, it is likely that the main backup INF on this team will end up with 225-250 ABs this year too.

I know I harp about Bruntlett's offensive limitations but it does matter given that he is likely to get his share of playing time again this year and be used as a PH-option quite frequently again. Maybe he rebounds slightly (.620-.630 OPS) but that is giving away a bunch of outs to 225+ ABs.

Interesting note in Scott Lauber's blog: "4. Cool story from yesterday's game: After pitching 4-2/3 innings, Carlos Carrasco was running behind the outfield fence when he came face-to-face with Albert Pujols. The Cardinals slugger complimented Carrasco on a decent outing, then told him he had been tipping his pitches ever so slightly. Apparently, Pujols noticed a hitch in Carrasco's delivery that gave away whether he was about to throw a fastball or changeup."

I appreciate that Pujols did that but isn't it bad form to help out the competition? Both are NL teams afterall.

Which I deeply appreciate as a Phillies fan. In related news, Carrasco has apparently switched his curveball grip from that of a 2-seam grip to a 4-seam grip (brett myers type curve) on the advice of Dubee and Myers.