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Jim VandeHei analysis

In interviews and private conversations with more than half of the 45-member Senate Republican Conference, there is a split over a potential McConnell successor. His top deputy, John Cornyn of Texas, is favored to succeed him, several GOP senators said. But others ranging from John Thune of South Dakota to Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander — or a dark horse — are among those who could get serious consideration in the event of a leadership vacancy.

Cornyn’s ascension to the top spot is hardly a lock. A McConnell loss would mean Republicans would most likely still be in the Senate minority, and some GOP senators would be looking for a fresh face to pull the party out of the political wilderness, set policy priorities and drive the national message.

There also appears to be concern among a handful in the Republican Conference that a Minority Leader Cornyn would be hamstrung by the whims of his fellow Texan and conservative firebrand Ted Cruz, pulling the party further to the right.

Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), like most senators interviewed for this article, insisted that McConnell would win his race. But when asked if Cornyn would ascend to the leader spot if McConnell lost, Burr said: “The institution always has a way of attracting fresh candidates, and I’m sure it would do the same in that particular case.”

“There’s a lot of respect for John Cornyn, and I think he would certainly be heavily considered,” added Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). “But these things never go uncontested.”

With the Senate being the Senate, there is a laundry list of ambitious senators looking to climb the political ladder, meaning if McConnell lost, Cornyn could very well be challenged in an unpredictable, secret leadership election with huge consequences for the future of the GOP.

The parlor game is playing out while McConnell is in a fight for his political life with polls indicating a dead-heat race threatening his nearly three decades in the Senate. While McConnell is widely viewed as the favorite in his race against Grimes, his defeat would mark the second time in less than a year that a GOP leader in Congress lost his seat, following House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s primary stunner this summer. Cantor’s defeat triggered a weeks-long leadership fight in the House, and a McConnell loss — or a Republican failure to take back the Senate — would throw the GOP into further turmoil.

Representatives for McConnell declined to comment for this story.

One top Senate Republican, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Cornyn is not the clear heir apparent to McConnell.

“It would be wide open,” said the senator. “Everything would be up for grabs.”

Cornyn, though, has strong backing from a number of his colleagues in the event he has to run for the job.

“I don’t expect McConnell to lose, but if that were to happen, [Cornyn] would rise very solidly,” said Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah). “But I don’t think it’s gonna happen.”

“It would be Cornyn’s — no doubt,” said a GOP rank-and-file senator who asked not to be named talking about a McConnell defeat.

By all accounts, there is little private jockeying at the moment to succeed McConnell, given that no Republican wants to appear as if he were preparing for his leader to lose in the fall and that virtually every GOP senator thinks the Kentuckian will emerge victorious.

Still, if he were to fall, the next GOP leader would need to quickly consolidate his support, as Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) did in June when he rapidly locked up the votes to succeed Cantor as House majority leader. In 2004, when then-Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) lost his reelection bid, Nevada Sen. Harry Reid spent the night frantically lining up backers for the top Democratic spot, circumventing any possible challenge to his rise to the top.

Aside from Cornyn, GOP senators are privately floating a number of other senators to succeed McConnell, including Thune, the Senate Republican Conference chairman, GOP Policy Chairman John Barrasso of Wyoming and Missouri’s Roy Blunt, the No. 5 in Senate GOP leadership.

Moreover, other rank-and-file Republicans have been suggested as potential McConnell successors, including Alexander and Burr himself.

In interviews, all those potential candidates — including Cornyn — dismiss talk that they would try to move up the food chain in the event of a McConnell loss.