Quote:It may be too late. In Nevada this weekend — the first state with a sizable Latino vote — Democratic activists were still murmuring about the inability of Klobuchar and Tom Steyer to name Mexico’s president during interviews with Telemundo late last week. Polling suggests Buttigieg and Klobuchar are not exciting broad swaths of voters in Nevada and South Carolina. Elizabeth Warren finished a distant fourth in New Hampshire. Hoarse when she addressed a Clark County Democratic Party gala at the Tropicana on Saturday night, she said she’d caught a cold.

“He’s going to win with 28 percent of the vote. We’re not talking about him getting 50 percent of the vote,” said Andres Ramirez, a Nevada-based Democratic strategist and former vice chairman of the Democratic National Committee’s Hispanic Caucus. “But the rest of the field is so fragmented, and he has his base locked, that he can continue winning just by holding onto his base.”

Advisers to three rival campaigns privately conceded over the weekend that the best anyone else could hope for [in Nevada] is second or third.

That doesn't appear to be true... Warren's number dipped in NH... and the votes went to Buttigeig and Klobaucher.

Warren has consistently been the 2nd choice of most voters, not Sanders. Sanders didn't pick up Biden or Warren voters when they lagged in Iowa/NH.

Sanders is in a weird spot where he needs a wide field to win primaries, but needs a narrowed field to get to 51% and avoid a contested convention, where his not being a Democrat could really hurt him.

If Warren does fade, Sanders has no one to ally with at a contested convention to get to 51%. For all the glee that Bernie Bros seem to be taking in the prospect of getting Warren out of the race, that could end up being the thing that sinks his chances.

There's an interesting parallel on how the corporate media is dismissing Sanders' chances and picking other candidates as more viable choices, with how they dismissed Trump and assumed Rubio, Cruz, Jeb Bush were more serious contenders.

The point was that Warren weakening has not been a good thing for Sanders. Her votes have not gone to Sanders, they've gone to decidedly less progressive candidates. This means that the overall % of voters voting towards the left end of the spectrum has gone down.

Bernie needs them to go UP to 51%. Warren's delegates are the only ones at all likely to shift to Sanders if no one gets to 51%. If that still doesn't get him to 51%... he's probably not going to be the nominee.

But hey, keep doing a victory dance. In February. With 1.6% of delegates counted. In 2nd place.

But a candidates' supporters do affect my opinion of the candidate. Shouldn't they? I mean, even if Pumpkins were a well-spoken, charismatic figure whose policies better masked their true nature, wouldn't the people at his rallies still give you the creeps?

I remind myself that the Sanders supporters who behave grotesquely are a relatively small number of people. Many fanbases have a toxic bottom. But only one Democratic candidate has a following that reminds me of MAGAs. It just makes me wonder: what is it about Sanders that draws the type of people whose behavior I do my best to avoid in my daily life?

I don’t think anyone legitimate said Bernie would be “cooked” once non-white voters weighed in. Just that he’d have a more difficult time. Especially once you get to the older minority voters in the South.

I expect Bernie to win in NV because it’s a caucus. And Bernie has historically done better in those than in primaries (although he did lose the Iowa caucus this year).

"Every romantic comedy should just be called "Tryin' to Fuck" - Patton Oswalt

(02-17-2020, 09:19 PM)Amos Wrote: Who here was saying Bernie will be cooked by the time non-white voters start weighing in?

I was talking about the South, where Bernie lost pretty much every state, most by huge margins.

He lost Nevada by... (checking)... 5%, which isn't much. He lost SC by 47% (!!!).

And it's not "cooked" so much as it is "not a clear front runner" if he doesn't improve in the South. One advantage he has going for him is that only Biden seems to have strong support in the South. Bernie could underperform in SC and still improve his chances, if Buttigeig faceplants.

(02-17-2020, 10:08 PM)Paul755 Wrote: when it’s clear they won’t get the nomination. So probably on Super Tuesday or the day after. Basically delegate math.

I would expect by 3/4 we’ll be down to 2 or 4 candidates. All depends on Bloomberg.

3/3 is insanely important. It's nuts that the DNC allows 1/3rd of the delegates to vote on one day. But it'll definitely clear up the picture.

Note: Sanders lost most of the 3/3 states to Clinton in 2016. So if he's the clear leader on 3/4, he'll be in great shape. But it's definitely not a given.

I remember that when it became clear that he wasn't going to get enough regular delegates he suddenly pivoted from 'super-delegates are a symptom of a corrupt system trying to silence the voice of The Revolution and we shouldn't have them' to 'we're going to try to get the super delegates on side because if we get the super delegates we can still clinch the nomination.'

So, Sanders won a majority in states representing 248 delegates, and lost a majority in states representing 1186 delegates, including getting stomped in states representing 534.

And that's why I keep harping on SC. It gives us a hint of what to expect in 584 delegates worth of southern states on 3/3. Between that and CA, you're talking about 999 delegates. CA's probably going to be split among multiple candidates, but the south is a mystery...

(02-18-2020, 08:47 AM)Richard Dickson Wrote: Yeah, I remember people touting Bernie victories in 2016 and me pointing out "In a primary that got him 16 delegates while he's hundreds of delegates behind Hillary. Who keeps winning the big states."

Wasn't part of the thing there that he was winning in more places that Hillary also lost in the general and ended up costing her the election?
Not that primary votes are going to map beautifully to the general election, but that seemed like one of the main (possibly only) arguments.

(I'm just trying to navigate Bernie world. Most of my US political media is all Bernie all the time and they all seem lovely. I don't know where you have to go to hate Bernie fans but I've basically managed to miss that completly for the second time.)

Lord if Bloomberg actually manages to buy the nomination, it's time to pack it in and just let the rich enslave us fully. It might depress me more thinking about the mental capabilities of my fellow Americans than Trump winning again or the first time did.

"You want a vision of the future?Imagine a boot stomping on a human face.....forever."

As a former Chewer and current friend on FB put it: Bloomberg buying the nomination doesn't break the system. It's how the system is designed to work.

"Nooj's true feelings on any given subject are unknown and unknowable. He is the butterfly flapping its wings in Peking. He is chaos and destruction and you shall never see his true form." - Merriweather

The first political essay I ever wrote was in junior high, on voter apathy. That's the issue we still have to deal with if the system is ever going to improve.

Bloomberg's on the rise mainly because for a big chunk of the voting public, he's the only person they're hearing and seeing. We can have as many debates as we want, but if 40% of voters don't watch any of em, they're still only going to see the ads.

(02-18-2020, 10:15 PM)farsight Wrote: The first political essay I ever wrote was in junior high, on voter apathy. That's the issue we still have to deal with if the system is ever going to improve.

Bloomberg's on the rise mainly because for a big chunk of the voting public, he's the only person they're hearing and seeing. We can have as many debates as we want, but if 40% of voters don't watch any of em, they're still only going to see the ads.

The solution? Turn it into a reality show.

The debates are basically worthless and I don't blame voters for not watching them. However voters should be informed and it looks like 40% of them are completely ignorant. There are so many excellent sources to find out what the candidates stand for and none of them can be found in a 15 second ad.

I think these screen captures and giant (Dildi? Is there a plural?) are just the next step in the JJ Abrams online adventure series. Very slyly played, Bitches Leave.-Tom Fuchs

Quote:Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), one of Bernie Sanders’s most vocal and visible allies in his presidential campaign, said last week that Democrats may have to “compromise deeply” on the Vermont senator’s signature “Medicare for All” plan to get the legislation passed. Sanders, however, pushed back Tuesday, insisting his policy proposal is “already a compromise.”

“A president can’t wave a magic wand and pass any legislation they want,” she said, adding that “the worst-case scenario” if Sanders is elected president is that Democrats “compromise deeply and we end up getting a public option.”

I am dumbfounded that AOC is now a voice of reason on the left. And annoyed that she has a better grasp on how politics works than the lifetime Congressman who's currently considered the favorite to be the Presidential nominee...

Quote:Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), one of Bernie Sanders’s most vocal and visible allies in his presidential campaign, said last week that Democrats may have to “compromise deeply” on the Vermont senator’s signature “Medicare for All” plan to get the legislation passed. Sanders, however, pushed back Tuesday, insisting his policy proposal is “already a compromise.”

“A president can’t wave a magic wand and pass any legislation they want,” she said, adding that “the worst-case scenario” if Sanders is elected president is that Democrats “compromise deeply and we end up getting a public option.”

I am dumbfounded that AOC is now a voice of reason on the left. And annoyed that she has a better grasp on how politics works than the lifetime Congressman who's currently considered the favorite to be the Presidential nominee...

Wait, Bernie thinks his proposal is already a compromise? What happened to not opening with your compromise position?! Amos please help me understand how many dimensions of chess Bernie is playing here!