Contents

Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that the President and Vice President of the United States must be natural-born citizens of the United States, at least 35 years old, and residents of the United States for a period of at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the political parties, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. Traditionally, the primary elections are indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors in turn directly elect the President and Vice President.

With seventeen major candidates entering the race, starting with Ted Cruz on March 23, 2015, this was the largest presidential primary field for any political party in American history.[33]

Prior to the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016, Perry, Walker, Jindal, Graham, and Pataki withdrew due to low polling numbers. Despite leading many polls in Iowa, Trump came in second to Cruz, after which Huckabee, Paul and Santorum withdrew due to poor performances at the ballot box. Following a sizable victory for Trump in the New Hampshire primary, Christie, Fiorina and Gilmore abandoned the race. Bush followed suit after scoring fourth place to Trump, Rubio and Cruz in South Carolina. On March 1, 2016, the first of four "Super Tuesday" primaries, Rubio won his first contest in Minnesota, Cruz won Alaska, Oklahoma and his home of Texas and Trump won the other seven states that voted. Failing to gain traction, Carson suspended his campaign a few days later.[34] On March 15, 2016, the second "Super Tuesday", Kasich won his only contest in his home state of Ohio and Trump won five primaries including Florida. Rubio suspended his campaign after losing his home state.[35]

Between March 16 and May 3, 2016, only three candidates remained in the race: Trump, Cruz and Kasich. Cruz won the most delegates in four Western contests and in Wisconsin, keeping a credible path to denying Trump the nomination on first ballot with 1,237 delegates. Trump then augmented his lead by scoring landslide victories in New York and five Northeastern states in April, followed by a decisive victory in Indiana on May 3, 2016, securing all 57 of the state's delegates. Without any further chances of forcing a contested convention, both Cruz[36] and Kasich[37] suspended their campaigns. Trump remained the only active candidate and was declared the presumptive Republican nominee by Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus on the evening of May 3, 2016.[38]

A 2018 study found that media coverage of Trump led to increased public support for him during the primaries. The study showed Trump received nearly $2 billion in free media, more than double any other candidate. Political scientist John Sides argued that Trump's polling surge was "almost certainly" due to frequent media coverage of his campaign. Sides concluded "Trump is surging in the polls because the news media has consistently focused on him since he announced his candidacy on June 16".[39] Prior to clinching the Republican nomination, Trump received little support from establishment Republicans.[40]

Major candidates were determined by the various media based on common consensus. The following were invited to sanctioned televised debates based on their poll ratings.

Trump received 14,010,177 total votes in the primary. Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Kasich each won at least one primary, with Trump receiving the highest number of votes and Ted Cruz receiving the second highest.

Candidates in this section are sorted by reverse date of withdrawal from the primaries

In July 2016, it was reported that Trump had narrowed his list of possible running mates down to three: Christie, Gingrich, and Pence.[83]

On July 14, 2016, several major media outlets reported that Trump had selected Pence as his running mate. Trump confirmed these reports in a message on Twitter on July 15, 2016, and formally made the announcement the following day in New York.[84][85] On July 19, the second night of the 2016 Republican National Convention, Pence won the Republican vice presidential nomination by acclamation.[86]

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who also served in the U.S. Senate and was the First Lady of the United States, became the first Democrat in the field to formally launch a major candidacy for the presidency with an announcement on April 12, 2015, via a video message.[87] While nationwide opinion polls in 2015 indicated that Clinton was the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, she faced strong challenges from Independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont,[88] who became the second major candidate when he formally announced on April 30, 2015, that he was running for the Democratic nomination.[89] September 2015 polling numbers indicated a narrowing gap between Clinton and Sanders.[88][90][91] On May 30, 2015, former Governor of MarylandMartin O'Malley was the third major candidate to enter the Democratic primary race,[92] followed by former Independent Governor and Republican Senator of Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee on June 3, 2015,[93][94] former Virginia Senator Jim Webb on July 2, 2015,[95] and former Harvard law professor Lawrence Lessig on September 6, 2015.[96]

On October 20, 2015, Webb announced his withdrawal from the Democratic primaries, and explored a potential Independent run.[97] The next day Vice-President Joe Biden decided not to run, ending months of speculation, stating, "While I will not be a candidate, I will not be silent."[98][99] On October 23, Chafee withdrew, stating that he hoped for "an end to the endless wars and the beginning of a new era for the United States and humanity".[100] On November 2, after failing to qualify for the second DNC-sanctioned debate after adoption of a rule change negated polls which before might have necessitated his inclusion in the debate, Lessig withdrew as well, narrowing the field to Clinton, O'Malley, and Sanders.[101]

Although Sanders had not formally dropped out of the race, he announced on June 16, 2016, that his main goal in the coming months would be to work with Clinton to defeat Trump in the general election.[108] On July 8, appointees from the Clinton campaign, the Sanders campaign, and the Democratic National Committee negotiated a draft of the party's platform.[109] On July 12, Sanders formally endorsed Clinton at a rally in New Hampshire in which he appeared with her.[110]

The following candidates were frequently interviewed by major broadcast networks and cable news channels, or were listed in publicly published national polls. Lessig was invited to one forum, but withdrew when rules were changed which prevented him from participating in officially sanctioned debates.

Clinton received 16,849,779 votes in the primary.

Candidates in this section are sorted by date of withdrawal from the primaries

On July 22, Clinton announced that she had chosen Senator Tim Kaine from Virginia as her running mate.[122] The delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention, which took place July 25–28, formally nominated the Democratic ticket.

In some states, Evan McMullin's running mate was listed as Nathan Johnson on the ballot rather than Mindy Finn, although Nathan Johnson was intended to only be a placeholder until an actual running mate was chosen.[139]

A general election ballot, listing the presidential and vice presidential candidates.

Hillary Clinton focused her candidacy on several themes, including raising middle class incomes, expanding women's rights, instituting campaign finance reform, and improving the Affordable Care Act. In March 2016, she laid out a detailed economic plan basing her economic philosophy on inclusive capitalism, which proposed a "clawback" which would rescind tax relief and other benefits for companies that move jobs overseas; with provision of incentives for companies that share profits with employees, communities and the environment, rather than focusing on short-term profits to increase stock value and rewarding shareholders; as well as increasing collective bargaining rights; and placing an "exit tax" on companies that move their headquarters out of America in order to pay a lower tax rate overseas.[199] Clinton promoted equal pay for equal work to address current alleged shortfalls in how much women are paid to do the same jobs men do,[200] promoted explicitly focus on family issues and support of universal preschool,[201] expressed support for the right to same-sex marriage,[201] and proposed allowing undocumented immigrants to have a path to citizenship stating that it "[i]s at its heart a family issue."[202]

Donald Trump's campaign drew heavily on his personal image, enhanced by his previous media exposure.[203] The primary slogan of the Trump campaign, extensively used on campaign merchandise, was Make America Great Again. The red baseball cap with the slogan emblazoned on the front became a symbol of the campaign, and has been frequently donned by Trump and his supporters.[204] Trump's right-wing populist positions—reported by The New Yorker to be nativist, protectionist, and semi-isolationist—differ in many ways from traditional conservatism.[205] He opposed many free trade deals and military interventionist policies that conservatives generally support, and opposed cuts in Medicare and Social Security benefits. Moreover, he has insisted that Washington is "broken" and can only be fixed by an outsider.[206][207][208]
Trump support was high among working and middle-class white male voters with annual incomes of less than $50,000 and no college degree.[209] This group, particularly those with less than a high-school education, suffered a decline in their income in recent years.[210] According to The Washington Post, support for Trump is higher in areas with a higher mortality rate for middle-age white people.[211] A sample of interviews with more than 11,000 Republican-leaning respondents from August to December 2015 found that Trump at that time found his strongest support among Republicans in West Virginia, followed by New York, and then followed by six Southern states.[212]

Clinton had an uneasy, and at times adversarial relationship with the press throughout her life in public service.[213] Weeks before her official entry as a presidential candidate, Clinton attended a political press corps event, pledging to start fresh on what she described as a "complicated" relationship with political reporters.[214] Clinton was initially criticized by the press for avoiding taking their questions,[215][216] after which she provided more interviews.

In contrast, Trump benefited from free media more than any other candidate. From the beginning of his campaign through February 2016, Trump received almost $2 billion in free media attention, twice the amount that Clinton received.[217] According to data from the Tyndall Report, which tracks nightly news content, through February 2016, Trump alone accounted for more than a quarter of all 2016 election coverage on the evening newscasts of NBC, CBS and ABC, more than all the Democratic campaigns combined.[218][219][220] Observers noted Trump's ability to garner constant mainstream media coverage "almost at will".[221] However, Trump frequently criticized the media for writing what he alleged to be false stories about him[222] and he has called upon his supporters to be "the silent majority".[223] Trump also said the media "put false meaning into the words I say", and says he does not mind being criticized by the media as long as they are honest about it.[224][225]

Both Clinton and Trump were seen unfavorably by the general public, and their controversial nature set the tone of the campaign.[226]

Clinton's practice during her time as Secretary of State of using a private email address and server, in lieu of State Department servers, gained widespread public attention back in March 2015.[227] Concerns were raised about security and preservation of emails, and the possibility that laws may have been violated.[228] After allegations were raised that some of the emails in question fell into this so-called "born classified" category, an FBI probe was initiated regarding how classified information was handled on the Clinton server.[229][230][231][232]
The FBI probe was concluded on July 5, 2016, with a recommendation of no charges, a recommendation that was followed by the Justice Department. On October 28, eleven days before the election, FBI DirectorJames Comey informed Congress that the FBI was analyzing additional emails obtained during its investigation of an unrelated case.[233][234] On November 6, he notified Congress that the new emails did not change the FBI's earlier conclusion.[235][236]

Also, on September 9, 2016, Clinton stated: "You know, just to be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. They're racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic—you name it."[237]
Donald Trump criticized Clinton's remark as insulting his supporters.[238][239] The following day Clinton expressed regret for saying "half", while insisting that Trump had deplorably amplified "hateful views and voices".[240] Previously on August 25, 2016, Clinton gave a speech criticizing Trump's campaign for using "racist lies" and allowing the alt-right to gain prominence.[241]

The ongoing controversy of the election made third parties attract voters' attention. On March 3, 2016, Libertarian Gary Johnson addressed the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington DC, touting himself as the third-party option for anti-Trump Republicans.[250][251] In early May, some commentators opined that Johnson was moderate enough to pull votes away from both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump who were very disliked and polarizing.[252] Both conservative and liberal media noted that Johnson could get votes from "Never Trump" Republicans and disaffected Bernie Sanders supporters.[253] Johnson also began to get time on national television, being invited on ABC News, NBC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Bloomberg, and many other networks.[254] In September and October 2016, Johnson suffered a "string of damaging stumbles when he has fielded questions about foreign affairs."[255][256] On September 8, Johnson, when he appeared on MSNBC's Morning Joe, was asked by panelist Mike Barnicle, "What would you do, if you were elected, about Aleppo?" (referring to a war-torn city in Syria). Johnson responded, "And what is Aleppo?"[257] Johnson's "what is Aleppo?" question prompted widespread attention, much of it negative.[257][258] Later that day, Johnson said that he had "blanked" and that he did "understand the dynamics of the Syrian conflict – I talk about them every day."[258]

On the other hand, Green Party candidate Jill Stein stated that the Democratic and Republican parties are "two corporate parties" that have converged into one.[259] Concerned by the rise of the far right internationally and the tendency towards neoliberalism within the Democratic Party, she has said, "The answer to neofascism is stopping neoliberalism. Putting another Clinton in the White House will fan the flames of this right-wing extremism."[260][261]

In response to Johnson's growing poll numbers, the Hillary Clinton campaign and Democratic allies increased their criticism of Johnson in September 2016, warning that "a vote for a third party is a vote for Donald Trump" and deploying Senator Bernie Sanders (Clinton's former primary rival, who supported her in the general election) to win over voters who might be considering voting for Johnson or for Stein.[262]

On December 9, 2016, the Central Intelligence Agency issued an assessment to lawmakers in the US Senate, stating that a Russian entity hacked the DNC and John Podesta's emails to assist Donald Trump. The Federal Bureau of Investigation agreed.[309] President Barack Obama ordered a "full enquiry" into such possible intervention.[310] Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper in early January 2017 testified before a Senate committee that Russia's meddling in the 2016 presidential campaign went beyond hacking, and included disinformation and the dissemination of fake news, often promoted on social media.[311]

President-elect Trump originally called the report fabricated,[312] and Wikileaks denied any involvement by Russian authorities.[313] Days later, Trump said he could be convinced of the Russian hacking "if there is a unified presentation of evidence from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies".[314]

Basket of deplorables – a controversial phrase coined by Hillary Clinton to describe half of those who support Trump.

Birdie Sanders – during a campaign stop in Portland, Oregon, a house finch[322] landed on Sanders's lectern while he was addressing a large crowd of supporters.[323] The event became popular with the Sanders community and Sanders even began to publicize the bird as "Birdie Sanders".[323]

Drain the swamp – a phrase Donald Trump invoked late in the campaign to describe what needs to be done to fix problems in the federal government. Trump acknowledged that the phrase was suggested to him, and he was initially skeptical about using it.[326]

Grab 'em by the pussy – a remark made by Trump during a 2005 behind-the-scenes conversation with Billy Bush which was released during the campaign. The remark was part of a conversation in which Trump boasted that as a celebrity he can get away with things (such as grabbing women by their genitalia) that non-celebrities cannot.

I'm with her – Clinton's unofficial campaign slogan ("Stronger Together" was the official slogan).[328]

Lock her up – a chant first used at the Republican convention to claim that Hillary Clinton is guilty of a crime. The chant was later used at many Trump campaign rallies.[329]

Small hands – Marco Rubio asserting that Trump has small hands, and implying that the size of his hands is proportional to the size of his genitals.[330]

Such a Nasty Woman – Donald Trump's response to Hillary Clinton after her saying that her proposed rise in Social Security Contributions would also include Trump's Social Security Contributions, "assuming he can't figure out how to get out of it".

The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), a non-profit organization, hosted debates between qualifying presidential and vice-presidential candidates. According to the commission's website, to be eligible to opt to participate in the anticipated debates, "in addition to being Constitutionally eligible, candidates must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to have a mathematical chance of winning a majority vote in the Electoral College, and have a level of support of at least 15 percent of the national electorate as determined by five selected national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations' most recently publicly-reported results at the time of the determination."[334]

The three locations chosen to host the presidential debates, and the one location selected to host the vice presidential debate, were announced on September 23, 2015. The site of the first debate was originally designated as Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio; however, due to rising costs and security concerns, the debate was moved to Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York.[335]

The election was held on November 8, 2016. Clinton cast her vote in Chappaqua, New York, while Trump voted at a Manhattan public school.[345] Throughout the day, the election process went more smoothly than many had expected, with only a few reports of long lines and equipment problems.

The news media and election experts were surprised twice: at Trump's winning the GOP nomination; and, in his winning the electoral college. English political scientist Lloyd Gruber said, "One of the major casualties of the 2016 election season has been the reputation of political science, a discipline whose practitioners had largely dismissed Donald Trump's chances of gaining the Republican nomination."[346] The final polls showed a lead by Clinton—and in the end she did receive more votes.[347] Trump himself expected, based on polling, to lose the election, and rented a small hotel ballroom to make a brief concession speech; "I said if we're going to lose I don't want a big ballroom", he said.[348] The Republican candidate performed surprisingly well in all battleground states, especially Florida, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina. Even Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, states that had been predicted to vote Democratic, were won by Trump.[349]Cindy Adams, present at Trump Tower, reported that "Trumptown knew they'd won by 5:30. Math, calculations, candidate dislike causing voter abstention begat the numbers."[350] Trump said that he was surprised by how "that map was getting red as hell. That map was bleeding red ... I always used to believe in [polls]. I don't believe them anymore."[348]

According to the authors of Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton's Doomed Campaign, by late Tuesday night the White House had concluded that Trump would win the election. Obama aide David Simas called Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook to persuade Clinton to concede the election, with no success. Obama then called Clinton directly, citing the importance of continuity of government, to ask her to publicly acknowledge that Trump had won. Believing that Clinton was still unwilling to concede, the president then called her campaign chair John Podesta, but the call to Clinton had likely already persuaded her.[351]

Clinton called Trump early that morning to concede defeat,[353] and at 2:50 AM ET, Trump gave his victory speech.[352] Later that day, Clinton asked her supporters to accept the result and hoped that Trump would be "a successful president for all Americans."[354] In his speech, Trump appealed for unity, saying "it is time for us to come together as one united people", and praised Clinton as someone who was owed "a major debt of gratitude for her service to our country."[355]

Six states plus a portion of Maine that Obama won in 2012 switched to Trump (Electoral College votes in parentheses): Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), and Maine's second congressional district (1). Initially, Trump won exactly 100 more Electoral College votes than Mitt Romney had in 2012, with two lost to faithless electors in the final tally. Thirty-nine states swung more Republican compared to the previous presidential election, while eleven states and the District of Columbia swung more Democratic.[264]

Based on United States Census Bureau estimates of the voting age population (VAP), turnout of voters casting a vote for President was nearly 1% higher than 2012.[1] Examining overall turnout in the 2016 election, University of Florida Prof. Michael McDonald estimated that 138.8 million Americans cast a ballot in 2016.[356] 65.9 million of those ballots were counted for Clinton and just under 63 million for Trump, representing 20.3% (Clinton) and 19.4% (Trump) of a census estimate of U.S. population that day of 324 million.[264][357] Considering a VAP of 250.6 million people and voting eligible population (VEP) of 230.6 million people, this is a turnout rate of 55.4% VAP and 60.2% VEP.[1][356] Based on this estimate, voter turnout was up compared to 2012 (54.1% VAP) but down compared to 2008 (57.4% VAP). A FEC report of the election recorded an official total of 136.7 million votes cast for President — more than any prior election.[1]

Data scientist Azhar Hamdan noted the paradoxes of the 2016 outcome, saying that "chief among them [was] the discrepancy between the popular vote, which Hillary Clinton won by 2.8 million votes, and the electoral college, where Trump won 304-227".[358] He said Trump outperformed Mitt Romney's 2012 results, while Clinton only just matched Barack Obama's 2012 totals.[358] Hamdan also said Trump was "the highest vote earner of any Republican candidate ever," exceeding George W. Bush's 62.04 million votes in 2004, though neither reached Clinton's 65.9 million, nor Obama's 69.5 million votes in 2008, the overall record.[358] He concluded, with help from The Cook Political Report, that the election hinged not on Clinton's large 2.8 million overall vote margin over Trump, but rather on about 78,000 votes from only three counties in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.[358][359]

^ abIn state-by-state tallies, Trump earned 306 pledged electors, Clinton 232. They lost respectively two and five votes to faithless electors. Pence and Kaine lost one and five votes, respectively.

^In early elections, beginning with the election of George Washington, many electors were chosen by state legislatures instead of public balloting and, in those states which practiced public balloting, votes were cast for undifferentiated lists of candidates, leaving no or only partial vote totals. Some states continued to allocate electors by legislative vote as late as 1876.[17]

^ abcdefghiCandidate received votes as a write-in. The exact numbers of write-in votes for Sanders have been published for three states. In California, his official running mate was Tulsi Gabbard and in New Hampshire and Vermont there was not a running mate attached to Sanders.[360] It was possible to vote Sanders as a write-in candidate in 14 states.[361]

^ abcTwo faithless electors from Texas cast their presidential votes for Ron Paul and John Kasich, respectively. Chris Suprun stated that he cast his presidential vote for John Kasich and his vice presidential vote for Carly Fiorina. The other faithless elector in Texas, Bill Greene, cast his presidential vote for Ron Paul but cast his vice presidential vote for Mike Pence, as pledged. John Kasich received recorded write-in votes in Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Vermont.

The table below displays the official vote tallies by each state's Electoral College voting method. The source for the results of all states is the official Federal Election Commission report. The column labeled "Margin" shows Trump's margin of victory over Clinton (the margin is negative for every state that Clinton won).

Independent candidate Evan McMullin, who appeared on the ballot in 11 states, received over 732,000 votes (0.53%). He won 21.4% of the vote in his home state of Utah, the highest share of the vote for a third-party candidate in any state since 1992.[371] Despite dropping out of the election following his defeat in the Democratic primary, Senator Bernie Sanders received 5.7% of the vote in his home state of Vermont, the highest write-indraft campaign percentage for a presidential candidate in American history.[372] (Because of this, some of his supporters have suggested that Bernie would have won, meaning that Sanders could have beaten Trump even though Clinton was unable to.) Johnson and McMullin were the first third party candidates since Nader to receive at least 5% of the vote in one or more states, with Johnson crossing the mark in 11 states and McMullin crossing it in two.

★Two states (Maine and Nebraska) allow for their electoral votes to be split between candidates.[a] The winner within each congressional district gets one electoral vote for the district. The winner of the statewide vote gets two additional electoral votes.[436][437]
Results are from The New York Times.[438]

Vote margin swing by state 2012 to 2016. Only eleven states (as well as the District of Columbia) trended more Democratic: Arizona, California, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Texas, Washington, Virginia and Utah. The large swing in Utah is mostly, but not completely, due to the votes for third candidate Evan McMullin and the 2012 candidacy of Mitt Romney.

Most media outlets announced the beginning of the presidential race about twenty months prior to Election Day. Soon after the first contestants declared their candidacy, Larry Sabato listed Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, and Ohio as the seven states most likely to be contested in the general election. After Donald Trump clinched the Republican presidential nomination, many pundits felt that the major campaign locations might be different from what had originally been expected.[452]

Rust Belt states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and even Michigan were thought to be in play with Trump as the nominee, while states with large minority populations, such as Colorado and Virginia, were expected to shift towards Clinton.[453] By the conventions period and the debates, however, it did not seem as though the Rust Belt states could deliver a victory to Trump, as many of them were considered to be part of the "blue wall" of Democratic-leaning states. Trump's courting of the Polish-American vote, a sizable number of whom were Reagan Democrats, has been cited as the cause for the loss of the Rust Belt by the Democratic nominee[454]. According to Politico[455] and the 538 online blog, his path to victory went through states such as Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, and possibly Colorado.[456][457][458][459]

A consensus among political pundits developed throughout the primary election season regarding swing states.[464] From the results of presidential elections from 2004 through to 2012, the Democratic and Republican parties would generally start with a safe electoral vote count of about 150 to 200.[465][466] However, the margins required to constitute a swing state are vague, and can vary between groups of analysts.[467][468] It was thought that left-leaning states in the Rust Belt could become more conservative, as Trump had strong appeal among many blue-collar workers.[469] They represent a large portion of the American populace and were a major factor in Trump's eventual nomination. Trump's primary campaign was propelled by victories in Democratic states, and his supporters often did not identify as Republican.[470] In addition, local factors may come into play. For example, Utah was the reddest state in 2012, although the Republican share was boosted significantly by the candidacy of Mormon candidate Mitt Romney.[467] Despite its partisan orientation, some reports suggested a victory there by independent candidate Evan McMullin, particularly if there was a nationwide blowout.[468]

Media reports indicated that both candidates planned to concentrate on Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina.[471][472] Among the Republican-leaning states, potential Democratic targets included Nebraska's second congressional district, Georgia, and Arizona.[473] Trump's relatively poor polling in some traditionally Republican states, such as Utah, raised the possibility that they could vote for Clinton, despite easy wins there by recent Republican nominees.[474] However, many analysts asserted that these states were not yet viable Democratic destinations.[475][476] Several sites and individuals publish electoral predictions. These generally rate the race by the likelihood for each party to win a state.[477] The "tossup" label is usually used to indicate that neither party has an advantage, "lean" to indicate a party has a slight edge, "likely" to indicate a party has a clear but not overwhelming advantage, and "safe" to indicate a party has an advantage that cannot be overcome.[478]

Clinton won states like New Mexico by less than 10 percentage points.[486] Among the states where the candidates finished at a margin of within 7 percent, Clinton won Virginia (13 electoral votes), Colorado (9), Maine (2), Minnesota (10), and New Hampshire (4). On the other hand, Trump won Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Nebraska's second district (1), and Georgia (16). States won by Obama in the 2012 contest, such as Ohio (18), Iowa (6), and Maine's second district (1), were also won by Trump. The close result in Maine was not expected by most commentators, nor were Trump's victory of over 10 points in the second district and their disparities.[487][488][489] The dramatic shift of Midwestern states towards Trump were contrasted in the media against the relative movement of Southern states towards the Democrats.[490] For example, former Democratic strongholds such as Minnesota and Maine leaned towards the GOP. Meanwhile, Iowa voted more Republican than Texas did, Georgia was more Democratic than Ohio, and the margin of victory for Trump was greater in North Carolina than Arizona.[491][492] Trump's smaller victories in Alaska and Utah also took some experts by surprise.[493]

However, "more convincing data"[498] from the polling firm Latino Decisions indicates that Clinton received a higher share of the Hispanic vote, and Trump a lower share, than the Edison exit polls showed. Using wider, more geographically and linguistically representative sampling, Latino Decisions concluded that Clinton won 79% of Hispanic voters (also an improvement over Obama's share in 2008 and 2012), while Trump won only 18% (lower than previous Republicans such as Romney and McCain).[499] Additionally, the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study found that Clinton's share of the Hispanic vote was 1 percentage point higher than Obama's in 2012, while Trump's was 7 percentage points lower than Romney's.[500]

Similarly, a large, multi-lingual study by the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund found that Clinton won 79% of Asian-American voters, higher than the Edison exit poll showed, while Trump only won 18%, a decrease from McCain's and Romney's numbers.[501] Furthermore, according to the AALDEF's report, Trump received merely 2% of the Muslim-American vote, whereas Clinton received 97%.[502]

Various methods were used to forecast the outcome of the 2016 election.[503] For the 2016 election, there were many competing election forecast approaches including Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, The Upshot at The New York Times, Daily Kos, Princeton Election Consortium, Cook Political Report, Rothenberg and Gonzales, PollyVote, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Electoral-Vote. These models mostly showed a Democratic advantage since the nominees were confirmed, and were supported by pundits and statisticians, including Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, Nate Cohn at The New York Times, and Larry Sabato from the Crystal Ball newsletter, who predicted a Democratic victory in competitive presidential races and projected consistent leads in several battleground states around the country.[504] The near-unanimity of forecasters in predicting a Clinton victory may have been the result of groupthink. However, FiveThirtyEight's model pointed to the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split widening in the final weeks based on Trump's improvement in swing states like Florida or Pennsylvania. This was due to the demographics targeted by Trump's campaign which lived in big numbers there, in addition to Clinton's poor performance in several of those swing states in comparison with Obama's performance in 2012, as well as having a big number of her potential voters in very populated traditionally 'blue' states, but also in some very populated states traditionally 'red', like Texas, which were projected safe for Trump.[505]

Early exit polls generally favored Clinton.[506] After the polls closed and some of the results came in, the forecasts were found to be inaccurate, as Trump performed better in the competitive Midwestern states, such as Iowa, Ohio, and Minnesota, than expected. Three states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan) which were considered to be part of Clinton's firewall, were won by Trump.[506] Of the states in the Great Lakes region, Clinton won the swing state of Minnesota by 1 point, as well as traditional Democratic strongholds such as New York and Illinois with populous urban centers. This result stands in contrast to the 2012 results, when President Obama won all but Indiana, which he carried in 2008. This table displays the final polling average published by Real Clear Politics on November 7, the actual electoral margin, and the over-performance by either candidate relative to the polls.

Many pollsters were puzzled by the failure of mainstream forecasting models to predict the outcome of the 2016 election.[523][524] Some journalists compared the 2016 election to the failure of prognosticator Arthur Henning in the "Dewey Defeats Truman" incident from the 1948 presidential election.[525][526]Sean Trende, writing for RealClearPolitics, wrote that many of the polls were accurate, but that the pundits' interpretation of these polls neglected polling error.[527]Nate Silver found that the high number of undecided and third-party voters in the election was neglected in many of these models, and that many of these voters decided to vote for Trump.[528] According to a February 2018 study by Public Opinion Quarterly, the main sources of polling error were "a late swing in vote preference toward Trump and a pervasive failure to adjust for over-representation of college graduates (who favored Clinton)," whereas the share of "shy" Trump voters (who declined to admit their support for Trump to the pollsters) proved to be negligible.[529]

Following the announcement of Trump's election, large protests broke out across the United States with some continuing for several days.[545][546][547][548]

Protesters have held up a number of different signs and chanted various shouts including "Not my president" and "We don't accept the president-elect".[443][545] The movement organized on Twitter under the hashtags #Antitrump and #NotMyPresident.[549][550]

High school and college students walked out of classes to protest.[551] The protests were peaceful for the most part. At some protests fires were lit, flags and other items were burned and people yelled derogatory remarks about Trump. Rioters also broke glass at certain locations.[552][553][554]
Celebrities such as Madonna, Cher, and Lady Gaga took part in New York.[555][556][557] Some protesters took to blocking freeways in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Portland, Oregon, and were dispersed by police in the early hours of the morning.[558][559] In a number of cities, protesters were dispersed with rubber bullets, pepper spray and bean-bags fired by police.[560][561][562]
In New York City, calls were made to continue the protests over the coming days after the election.[563] Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani called protesters "a bunch of spoiled cry-babies."[564] Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti expressed understanding of the protests and praised those who peacefully wanted to make their voices heard.[565]

'How Hard Is It to Hack the US Election' video report from Voice of America published on November 5, 2016, three days before the election.

After the election, computer scientists, including J. Alex Halderman, the director of the University of Michigan Center for Computer Security and Society, urged the Clinton campaign to request an election recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (three swing states where Trump had won narrowly) for the purpose of excluding the possibility that the hacking of electronic voting machines had influenced the recorded outcome.[566][567][568] However, statistician Nate Silver performed a regression analysis which demonstrated that the alleged discrepancy between paper ballots and electronic voting machines "completely disappears once you control for race and education level".[569] On November 25, 2016, the Obama administration said the results from November 8 "accurately reflect the will of the American people."[570] The following day, the White House released another statement, saying: "the federal government did not observe any increased level of malicious cyberactivity aimed at disrupting our electoral process on Election Day."[571]

Donald Trump and New Hampshire governor Chris Sununu both complained that liberal voters from Massachusetts were illegally bused into New Hampshire for the 2016 election, and Scott Brown blamed the same phenomenon for losing his senate race in 2014.[572] The New Hampshire Secretary of State and New Hampshire Department of Justice issued a report in 2018 regarding complaints of voters being bused in from Vermont, Maine, and Massachusetts for the 2016 election. They found that in every case, field inspectors were able to determine that the voters were from New Hampshire, though they were riding a bus operated by an out-of-state company (which has its name and address written on the outside of the bus, presumably the source of the confusion).[572] Out of 743,000 votes cast, four were determined to be cast illegally, either because the voters were told to go to the wrong location, or because the voter believed they were able to vote in each town in which they owned property.[572] Out of about 6,000 same-day voter registrations in the state, the report says only 66 voters could not have their residency confirmed (though fraud is not the only explanation for such a failure).[572]

On November 23, Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein launched a public fundraiser to pay for recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, asserting that the election's outcome had been affected by hacking in those states; Stein did not provide evidence for her claims.[573][574] Changing the outcome of these three states would make Clinton the winner, and this would require showing that fewer than 60 000 votes had been counted for Trump which should have been counted for Clinton. Stein filed for a recount in Wisconsin on November 25,[575] after which Clinton campaign general counsel Marc Elias stated that their campaign would join Stein's recount efforts in that state and possibly others "in order to ensure the process proceeds in a manner that is fair to all sides."[377][576] Stein subsequently filed for a recount in Pennsylvania on November 28,[577] and in Michigan on November 30.[578] Concurrently, American Delta Party/Reform Party presidential candidate Rocky De La Fuente sought and was granted a partial recount in Nevada that was unrelated to Stein's efforts.[379]

President-elect Donald Trump issued a statement denouncing Stein's Wisconsin recount request saying, "The people have spoken and the election is over." Trump further commented that the recount "is a scam by the Green Party for an election that has already been conceded."[579] The Trump campaign and Republican Party officials moved to block Stein's three recount efforts through state and federal courts.[580][581]

U.S. District Judge Mark Goldsmith ordered a halt to the recount in Michigan on December 7, dissolving a previous temporary restraining order against the Michigan Board of Elections that allowed the recount to continue, stating in his order: "Plaintiffs have not presented evidence of tampering or mistake. Instead, they present speculative claims going to the vulnerability of the voting machinery – but not actual injury."[582] On December 12, U.S. District Judge Paul Diamond rejected an appeal by the Green Party and Jill Stein to force a recount in Pennsylvania, stating that suspicion of a hacked Pennsylvania election "borders on the irrational" and that granting the Green Party's recount bid could "ensure that no Pennsylvania vote counts" given the December 13, 2016, federal deadline to certify the vote for the Electoral College.[583] Meanwhile, the Wisconsin recount was allowed to continue as it was nearing completion and had uncovered no significant irregularities.[584]

The recounts in Wisconsin and Nevada were completed on schedule, resulting in only minor changes to vote tallies.[585][586] A partial recount of Michigan ballot found some precinct imbalances in Detroit, which were corrected. A subsequent state audit found no evidence of voter fraud and concluded that the mistakes, which were "almost entirely" caused by poll-worker mistakes attributed to poor training, did not impair "the ability of Detroit residents to cast a ballot and have their vote counted."[587] The overall outcome of the election remained unchanged by the recount efforts.[585][586][588]

On December 5, former candidate Lawrence Lessig and attorney Laurence Tribe established The Electors Trust under the aegis of EqualCitizens.US to provide pro bono legal counsel as well as a secure communications platform for members of the Electoral College who are regarding a vote of conscience against Trump.[596]

On December 6, Colorado Secretary of State Wayne W. Williams castigated Democratic electors who had filed a lawsuit in Federal court to have the state law binding them to the popular vote (in their case for Hillary Clinton) overturned.[597]

On December 19, several electors voted against their pledged candidates: two against Trump and five against Clinton. A further three electors attempted to vote against Clinton but were replaced or forced to vote again.

In the Electoral College vote on December 19, for the first time since 1808, multiple faithless electors voted against their pledged qualified presidential candidate.[b] Five Democrats rebelled in Washington and Hawaii, while two Republicans rebelled in Texas.[605] Two Democratic electors, one in Minnesota and one in Colorado, were replaced after voting for Bernie Sanders and John Kasich, respectively.[606][607] Electors in Maine conducted a second vote after one of its members voted for Sanders; the elector then voted for Clinton.[608]

Likewise, for the first time since 1896,[c] multiple faithless electors voted against the pledged qualified vice presidential candidate.

One Clinton elector in Colorado attempted to vote for John Kasich.[609] The single vote was ruled invalid by Colorado state law, the elector was dismissed, and an alternative elector was sworn in who voted for Clinton.[610][607]

One Clinton elector in Minnesota voted for Bernie Sanders as President and Tulsi Gabbard as vice president; his votes were discarded and he was replaced by an alternate who voted for Clinton.[610]

One Clinton elector in Maine voted for Bernie Sanders; this vote was invalidated as "improper" and the elector subsequently voted for Clinton.[610]

One Trump elector in Georgia resigned before the vote rather than vote for Trump and was replaced by an alternate.[612]

Two Trump electors in Texas did not vote for Trump (one vote went to John Kasich, one to Ron Paul); one elector did not vote for Pence and instead voted for Carly Fiorina for Vice-President; a third resigned before the vote rather than vote for Trump and was replaced by an alternate.[611]

Of the faithless votes, Colin Powell and Elizabeth Warren were the only two to receive more than one; Powell received three electoral votes for President and Warren received two for Vice President. Receiving one valid electoral vote each were Sanders, John Kasich, Ron Paul and Faith Spotted Eagle for President, and Carly Fiorina, Susan Collins, Winona LaDuke and Maria Cantwell for Vice President. Sanders is the first Jewish American to receive an electoral vote for President. LaDuke is the first Green Party member to receive an electoral vote, and Paul is the third member of the Libertarian Party to do so, following the party's presidential and vice-presidential nominees each getting one vote in 1972. It is the first election with faithless electors from more than one political party. The seven people to receive electoral votes for president were the most in a single election since 1796, and more than any other election since the enactment of the Twelfth Amendment in 1804.

^ abcdMaine split its electoral votes for the first time since 1828.[435]

^The 1872 presidential election also saw multiple electors vote for a different candidate than that pledged, due to the death of Liberal Republican candidate Horace Greeley, after the popular vote, yet before the meeting of the Electoral College. Greeley still garnered three posthumous electoral votes which were subsequently dismissed by Congress.

^ abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyWinger, Richard (July 1, 2016). "Ballot Access News". ballot-access.org. p. 4. Retrieved September 10, 2016. States that allow write-ins in the general election, and don't have write-in filing laws, are legally obliged to count all write-ins: Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont.... Only one state, South Carolina, has a law that says that although write-ins in general elections are permitted, they are not permitted for president.

^"How Trump Exposed the Tea Party". Politico Magazine. For years the Republican elite has gotten away with promoting policies about trade and entitlements that are the exact opposites of the policies favored by much of their electoral base. Populist conservatives who want to end illegal immigration, tax the rich, protect Social Security and Medicare, and fight fewer foreign wars have been there all along. It's just that mainstream pundits and journalists, searching for a libertarian right more to their liking (and comprehension), refused to see them before the Summer of Trump.

^Nicholas Confessore (March 28, 2016). "How the G.O.P. Elite Lost Its Voters to Donald Trump". The New York Times. Retrieved March 28, 2016. While wages declined and workers grew anxious about retirement, Republicans offered an economic program still centered on tax cuts for the affluent and the curtailing of popular entitlements like Medicare and Social Security.

^Jeff Guo (March 4, 2016). "Death predicts whether people vote for Donald Trump". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 18, 2016. Even after controlling for these other factors, the middle-aged white death rate in a county was still a significant predictor of the share of votes that went to Trump

^Montanaro, Domenico (September 10, 2016). "Hillary Clinton's 'Basket Of Deplorables,' In Full Context Of This Ugly Campaign". NPR. The remarks also remind of inflammatory remarks in recent presidential elections on both sides — from Barack Obama's assertion in 2008 that people in small towns are "bitter" and "cling to guns or religion," to Mitt Romney's 2012 statement that 47 percent of Americans vote for Democrats because they are "dependent upon government" and believe they are "victims," to his vice presidential pick Paul Ryan's comment that the country is divided between "makers and takers."

^Chozick, Amy (September 10, 2016). "Hillary Clinton Calls Many Trump Backers 'Deplorables,' and GOP Pounces". New York Times. Prof. Jennifer Mercieca, an expert in American political discourse at Texas A&M University, said in an email that the "deplorable" comment "sounds bad on the face of it" and compared it to Mr. Romney's 47 percent gaffe. "The comment demonstrates that she (like Romney) lacks empathy for that group," Professor Mercieca said.