We have been forecasting a Modoki Enso event since last spring using our research on SOI drops in the previous winter, Combined with a cool eastern Indian Ocean and a very warm NE Pacific, our long standing ideas, first issued in August call for a cold stormy winter.JAMSTEC below pic.twitter.com/ikAJaeas49

when one looks at Global temps since super nino of 97-98, obvious reactions back and forth but level is higher than before that super nino over a 2 decade period, Higher pause starting now, but the big but is with flip of AMO and solar, going OPPOSITE of what went on before pic.twitter.com/DTExiqb6R3

Some hint of a potential storm near the E. Coast next weekend or early the following week in ensembles. They've teased us by pushing this off farther in the future with each model run this week, so we'll see. Potentially more blocking (NAO shift) would support it. pic.twitter.com/eU8XRR1DBc

With the latest NOAA Winter Outlook just released, here's how their previous 3 winter precipitation outlooks have "verified". At least here on the West Coast they have pretty much missed the mark. pic.twitter.com/qKqdB53YGc

Need to watch the period from next weekend through 11/3 or so for potentially multiple storms systems to affect the SE/Eastern US. Possible a tropical wave in the Gulf gets entrained too. Way too complicated to pin down details, but 1 or more noreasters/coastal lows possible.

Hey #NYC, Sunday's forecast high of 47F is more like what you would see in early December. Where is that air coming from? Here's the GFS 5-day back-trajectory for 100m/1500m/3000m for Sunday morning. pic.twitter.com/XSQZvxiD2h

Today, the view at approximately 6,000 feet above sea level shows some early color change. Fall colors have arrived somewhat later than average this year, likely related to the recent warm temperatures and large amounts of rainfall we have received. pic.twitter.com/NKSDT5DeoJ