The Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) distributed flyers entitled “Robbery Alert” to cars parked in the U Street area Tuesday afternoon, and repeated the distribution to cars and pedestrians passing through the intersection of 12th Street, NW and W Street, NW on Thursday morning. The flyers provide a series of safety tips to help residents and visitors avoid becoming robbery victims.

Robberies in Borderstan were up in January over 2011 numbers (Borderstan Sees Jump in Armed Robberies in January). February robberies, however, are down so far compared to 2011 numbers. There were only seven robberies in Borderstan from February 1 through the afternoon of February 16, compared to 17 in the same time period in 2011. In 2010, just four robberies were reported in the first 16 days of February, a number likely affected by the two major snowstorms that struck D.C. in early February.

Despite the lower numbers compared to 2011 and January 2012, six of the seven robberies occurred just this week.

Two robberies took place the evening of February 12, one in the 1300 block of Corcoran Street, NW and another near Logan Circle in the 1500 block of Kingman Place, NW. On the evening of February 13, a victim was robbed in the 1100 block of R Street, NW. During the early morning hours of Valentine’s Day a gun robbery occurred at a bus stop in the 1900 block of 11th Street, NW.

A victim was robbed at gunpoint on February 15 at 8:30 a.m. on the 2100 block of 12th Place ,NW. Finally, a gun robbery occurred in the early morning of February 16 at the intersection of Connecticut Avenue, NW and Q Street, NW.

Fortunately, two arrests have been made in the 11th Street NW case; the pair are also suspected in two other robberies outside of Borderstan that took place early Tuesday morning (see coverage from The Washington Post).

The text of the MPD flyer is below:

Attacks usually come from behind. Be aware of distances between you and someone who may be coming up behind you.

Try to avoid walking alone, cutting through alley ways or areas that are dark or less traveled.

Watch alleys and dark spaces between buildings. This is where the robber gets the jump on you.

Innocuous questions like “Do you have the time, May I borrow you cell to call someone, Do you have a light?” may be indicators. Follow your instinct. If it doesn’t feel right, step into a store or business. Most of the time this will deter the robbers.

If you need to use your cell phone or text, stop somewhere public. The robber does not want witnesses.

Do not take money out of an ATM late at night. Get your money before you head out for the evening.

We received several emails and tweets from Borderstan readers in the past two weeks, wanting to know if armed robberies were up in the area. The answer is “yes” for both robberies and armed robberies.

Borderstan recorded 21 robberies in the first month of 2012, up from 14 in the same time period in 2011. As The Washington Post reported, robberies were up citywide in January, largely driven by thefts of smartphones and other portable electronic devices.

While the 21 robberies in Borderstan are below the 27 recorded in January 2010, a greater proportion of 2012 robberies involved guns than in either of the two previous years. Offenders used a gun in 11 January robberies (about 52%) compared to six of 27 robberies in 2010 (about 22%) and three of 14 robberies in 2011 (about 21%).

Eight of the January robberies occurred in Police Service Area (PSA) 307, which covers the area around Logan Circle (see Closer Look at PSA 307’s New Boundaries, Personnel). All eight involved a weapon (offenders had a gun in six instances and a knife in two). In January 2011 there were zero robberies in this PSA.

The Metropolitan Police Department has a series of tips for residents to avoid becoming the victim of robbery. As they note, the best recommendation is “to be sensible and to be alert.”

These robbery data are drawn from the D.C. Data Catalog, and like any police data, they are subject to change over time.

Crime was up in Borderstan in 2011, but that increase was driven largely by an almost 50% increase in thefts from cars (2011 Borderstan Crime: More Thefts from Auto Drive Crime Rate Up). A closer look at the theft from auto stats from 2010 and 2011 suggests that this jump in thefts was concentrated in only certain parts of Borderstan.

The table below shows thefts from auto divided by Police Service Area (PSA). Using the old PSA boundaries that were in effect until the end of 2011, Borderstan covers parts of PSA 305 (U Street), 307 (Logan), 208 (Dupont) and a small part of 308 (Convention Center). While thefts from auto increased across all of the PSAs, the magnitude of the increases varied a good deal. The number of thefts from auto was similar from 2010 to 2011 in PSA 305, but showed major increases in PSAs 208 (up 91.3%) and 307 (up 54.5%). (PSA 308 also shows a large percentage change, but this is based on small numbers). These data only reflect the portions of each PSA that fall in the Borderstan coverage area.

Thefts from Auto by PSA

PSA

2010

2011

% Change

208

230

440

+91.3%

305

280

297

+6.1%

307

220

340

+54.5%

308

18

38

+111.1%

Total

748

1,115

+49.1%

We can see these changes reflected when we examine the “hottest” street blocks for thefts from auto. In 2010, these blocks were concentrated in PSA 305 in the U Street corridor. For example, the 1300 block of T Street NW had 12 thefts from auto, while the 1400 block of U Street NW and the 1400 block of V Street NW each had nine.

In 2011, we see some changes in the blocks with the highest number of thefts, reflecting the change in the distribution of thefts from auto across Borderstan. The 1600 block of O Street NW led the way with 15 thefts from auto, followed by the 1700 block of P Street NW and the 900 block of L Street NW with 14 each, and the 1500 block of Church Street NW with 13.

On a brighter note, while thefts from auto were up across Borderstan, the number of stolen cars dropped across all the PSAs in Borderstan from 2010 to 2011. The biggest drop came in PSA 305, which had 28 fewer stolen autos in 2011 than 2010.

Stolen Autos by PSA

PSA

2010

2011

% Change

208

63

51

-19.0%

305

68

40

-41.2%

307

49

45

-8.2%

308

12

10

-16.7%

Total

192

146

-24.0%

What can help explain these changes? Whatever the reason, these changes seem to be following recent citywide trends in stolen vehicles and thefts from auto. Analyses by the D.C. Crime Policy Institute (DCPI) showed declines in auto theft between 2005 and 2009 and increases in thefts from auto in the same time period (see the DCPI briefs on motor vehicle theft and theft from auto).

The Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) points out that thefts from motor vehicles are a crime of opportunity (see Thefts from Auto), and so it could be the case that the rise is a result of car owners providing more opportunities for potential offenders by leaving small electronics (e.g. GPS devices) and other valuables in plain sight in their vehicles. DC police offer a number of tips to avoid having your car targeted, including keeping valuables out of sight and placing all items in the trunk or a locked glove compartment.

The most likely explanation for the decline in stolen vehicles is that new cars are increasingly difficult to steal because of alarms and engine immobilizers. For example, analyses by the National Insurance Crime Bureau show that all of the 10 most frequently stolen cars nationwide in 2010 were models from 2004 or earlier.

The drop in stolen cars might also help explain the increase in thefts. Potential car thieves may be able to get into the car, but unable to start it, so they may turn to stealing the car’s contents. As MPD recommends, the best advice is to not leave anything valuable in your car in plain sight.

Also, in October Borderstan welcomed Cody Telep to the team of contributors. A resident of the U Street area, Telep writes about crime and the police, and is finishing a PhD in criminology at George Mason University.

Someone got a new suit for Christmas. It just wasn’t me. (Luis Gomez Photos)

From Matty Rhoades

It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas, which can only mean… stolen packages. Take notice, Borderstanis, especially you new arrivals from the suburbs and rural America. Here is an ugly little fact about the holiday season when you live downtown: Packages get stolen a lot this time of year.

Thieves literally make the rounds — watching for delivery trucks — and looking for untended boxes on front steps, underneath stairs and inside unlocked doors to building entrances.

A Logan Circle neighbor emailed me yesterday that she saw a van driving slowly down a residential street — and thought nothing of it until what happened next. One of the passengers jumped out, ran up to a box sitting on a front step, grabbed it and got back in the van. Yes, she did call 911.

Always require someone to sign and take possession of your deliveries. A box sitting on a front step or inside an unlocked entryway is a tempting thing for thieves — especially in December. No doorman? No one will be home? Ship it to your office or pick it up.

Here’s my personal tale of woe.

A few weeks ago I bought a suit. I like it so much that I wanted the same suit in a different color. “No problem,” said the (wonderful, BTW) saleswoman. “We will ship it to you.” Never in a million years did it occur to me that it would be shipped without requiring a signature by the recipient. So, I did not ask about it.

I learned the hard way last week that no signature was required for the delivery of my suit. I came home and saw the top of a large box (see photos above) sticking above the window line in the front door of our building. It’s the location of our mailboxes and it is unlocked; the security door is inside the entryway. The culprits had opened the boxes — taking both the coat and pants — but were kind enough to leave the boxes and packing slip.

Who was responsible? I contacted the shipper who told me the clothing manufacturer had not required a signature. “Not us,” in other words. I contacted the clothing manufacturer that shipped my suit and was told that their contract with the retail store did not require signatures on deliveries. So, “not them,” either.

Last stop was the retailer. After explaining the situation, I was given two options: They would reship a suit to me or I could get my money back. By this point, I just wanted my money back. BTW, I explained (rather pointedly) that you cannot ship an item, especially a large one, to a downtown location without requiring a signer — especially at Christmastime!

Urban residents are often quite concerned about becoming the victim of a robbery, and understandably so. Robberies can be traumatic and dangerous experiences, not to mention the loss of personal property that can occur. What can DC crime data tell us about robberies in Borderstan so far this year – which streets and blocks had the most robberies? How many involved a gun? And what method was used?

Dupont-Logan-U Street area: 36% of all robberies involve a snatch, e.g., a robber grabs a purse or cell phone… 14% involve a gun, and 3% involve a knife… 29% involve force and violence, but not a weapon.

In total, 196 street blocks or intersections have had at least one robbery in 2011, but just 67 of these 196 blocks/intersections had more than one robbery. From January 1 to November 15, 2011, there were 308 robberies in Borderstan. Almost one-half of these (146) occurred in Police Service Area (PSA) 305, which includes the U Street area. The rest were about evenly split between PSA 307 (88), which covers the Logan Circle area; and PSA 208 (74), which covers Dupont-Kalorama. (It’s important to remember that PSAs are not equal in population or geographic area.)

U Street Corridor Cluster

Many of the streets with the highest number of robberies are clustered in the U Street corridor:

The 1300 block of U Street NW had nine robberies to lead all streets. The 1300 block of U Street NW is also the “hottest” block in Borderstan in 2011 and has the highest proportion of violent crime among the highest crime streets; see Violent vs. Property Crime on Borderstan’s “Hot” Blocks.

The 1000 and 1200 blocks of U Street both had five robberies apiece.

The 900 block of U Street and the intersection of 14th and U Streets NW each had four robberies.

The table below examines the method used in these 308 robberies. About 14% of robberies involved a gun — about 16% when including carjacking incidents, 6 of which involved a gun. While any gun robbery is a harrowing experience for the victim, gun robbery is not the most common type in Borderstan.

Robberies using some type of force or violence (but not a weapon) made up about 29% of all robberies and snatch cases involving a purse or other items (e.g., cell phones) being taken made up close to 36% of robbery cases.

Robberies in Dupont-Logan-U Street

Method

Frequency

Percent

Force and violence

88

28.6

Pocketbook snatch

59

19.2

Snatch

51

16.6

Gun

42

13.6

Assault with intent

17

5.5

Attempt

14

4.5

Fear

14

4.5

Knife

9

2.9

Carjacking

7

2.2

Pickpocket

4

1.3

Other Armed

3

1.0

TOTAL

308

100.0

When are these robberies occurring? The DC police data do not include the time of day for incidents (although a cursory review of DC Police Alerts suggests that robbery is a nighttime phenomenon), but the month and day are available.

The table below presents the number of robberies in Borderstan by month. The results partially confirm conventional knowledge about crime and the weather. When it is warmer outside, there are more people out on the street and that typically means higher rates of crime, particularly predatory crimes like robbery.

As might be expected, January has the lowest number of robberies (11) and June (41) and August (39) are among the highest months in total robberies. The lower number of robberies in July (26) and the higher number in October (44) are more surprising. October had the most robberies of any month so far this year. This cannot be explained just by the weather; October was actually slightly cooler than average (Capital Weather Gang’s October recap: Cooler, wetter, snowier than normal).

Month

Frequency

January

11

February

26

March

27

April

21

May

30

June

41

July

26

August

39

September

29

October

44

November (first 15 days)

14

TOTAL

308

Robbery a Rare Event

Overall, robbery in Borderstan is not a rare event, but fortunately, it is also not particularly common (especially gun robbery). As with prior analyses of crime in Borderstan, it is important to keep in mind that these data are all drawn from police incidents, which are always subject to later changes and reclassification.

The 1400 block of P Street NW is a busy commercial corridor. What do the crime numbers look like? (Luis Gomez Photos)

Last week Borderstan welcomed a new contributor, Cody Telep. A resident of the U Street area, he is writing about crime and the police. Telep is finishing a PhD in criminology at George Mason University.

Not all high crime locations are created equal. Last week, I examined the highest crime street blocks in Borderstan: Crime in Borderstan: Do You Live on a “Hot” Street Block? However, total crime counts don’t necessarily tell the whole story. Most people fear violent crime far more than property crime (with good reason). So, I went back and looked at the 12 blocks in terms of violent and property crimes.

In the table below, I revisit the 12 highest crime street blocks, this time dividing the total number of incidents between violent crime and property crime.

Overall, the table shows a good deal of variation from block to block in the percentage of crime that is violent versus property. For violent crime, the percentage ranges from 4 percent for the 1700 block of P Street NW (just 1 robbery out of 24 total incidents) to the 40.5 percent on the 1300 block of U Street mentioned above. Despite the wide range, on all of these blocks, property crime is more common than violent crime.

Rank

Street Block (B/O = block of)

Violent Incidents

Percentage of Total

Property Incidents

Percentage of Total

1.

1300 B/O U Street NW

17

40.5%

25

59.5%

2.

1400 B/O P Street NW

3

7.9%

35

92.1%

3.

1600 B/O Connecticut Avenue NW

3

9.7%

28

90.3%

T4.

1500 B/O Connecticut Avenue NW

2

8.0%

23

92.0%

T4.

1700 B/O P Street NW

1

4.0%

24

96.0%

6.

1200 B/O U Street NW

7

29.2%

17

70.8%

7.

1700 B/O T Street NW

2

8.7%

21

91.3%

T8.

1300 B/O 14th Street NW

6

28.6%

15

71.4%

T8.

1900 B/O 14th Street NW

5

23.8%

16

76.2%

T10.

1000 B/O U Street NW

4

20.0%

16

80.0%

T10.

1800 B/O 14th Street NW

4

20.0%

16

80.0%

T10.

1900 B/O 9th Street NW

7

35.0%

13

65.0%

TOTAL

61

19.7%

249

80.3%

Violent crime here refers to robberies, assaults with a deadly weapon, and sexual abuse cases (there was just 1 sexual abuse incident on these 12 blocks). Property crime is a combination of stolen automobiles, thefts, and thefts from automobiles. There were no arsons or homicides on these 12 street blocks in the first 10 months of 2011.

Some interesting findings emerge from the table. The highest crime street segment, the 1300 block of U Street NW, also had the highest proportion of violent crime incidents. Just over 40 percent of the incidents on this block can be classified as violent crimes, with eight assaults with a deadly weapon and nine robberies.

This stands in contrast to the block with the second highest number of total incidents, the 1400 block of P Street NW, which had just three violent incidents. Thefts were driving crime incidents on this block; 31 of the 38 total incidents were classified as thefts.

Overall, the table shows a good deal of variation from block to block in the percentage of crime that is violent versus property. For violent crime, the percentage ranges from 4 percent for the 1700 block of P Street NW (just 1 robbery out of 24 total incidents) to the 40.5 percent on the 1300 block of U Street mentioned above. Despite the wide range, on all of these blocks, property crime is more common than violent crime.

As noted last week, these blocks overall produced about 14 percent of crime incidents in Borderstan. For certain crime categories, however, these blocks are responsible for a greater proportion of incidents. For example, 26 percent of all assaults with a deadly weapon and 25 percent of all thefts in Borderstan occurred on these blocks. Interestingly, auto-related crimes were less common. In total these 12 blocks had just six stolen cars (about five percent of the Borderstan total) and 44 thefts from automobiles (again, about five percent of the Borderstan total).

Just as with last week’s results, it is important to not overstate these findings. While the 1300 block of U Street has had the highest number of violent crime incidents, there were still only 17 such incidents in the first 10 months of 2011. Additionally, these results come from police incident data, which are always subject to later changes and reclassifications.

A quick look at the October crime stats for the Logan Circle area shows an increase from September to October. There were 92 crimes reported in October – with an increase in both property crimes and violent crimes. In October, the crime mix consisted of 18 violent crimes and 74 property crimes; in September, the mix looked like 13 violent crimes and 63 property crimes.

Pay extra attention when you are out-and-about on the weekends. (Luis Gomez Photos)

Pay attention to your surroundings and your behavior when you are out and about on the streets — especially on weekends.

The weekends are prime time for criminals. Lots of visitors from the suburbs and other neighborhoods visit the Borderstan area. This means extra people on the street with credit cards and cash (with “beverages” thrown into the mix), which equals opportunity for robbers.

Pay attention to your surroundings and your behavior when you are out and about on the streets — especially on weekends. The weekends are prime time for criminals. Lots of visitors from the suburbs and other neighborhoods visit the Borderstan area. This means extra people on the street with credit cards and cash (with “beverages” thrown into the mix), which equals opportunity for robbers.

Yes, this is a “safe neighborhood.” It’s also the downtown area of a big city. Pay attention.

Following are major crimes from the past weekend in the Dupont-Logan-U Street area as reported by the DC Police.

Sunday evening around 7 pm a robbery was reported on the 1400 block of U Street NW: “Police Alert-Robbery, Robbery in the 1400blk of U St. NW LOF ..B/M..18-25YOA..160-180LBS..GREY DO NOT TAKE ACTION CALL 911 W/EVENT #i20110539688”

Morning morning another robbery occurred on the 1400 block of P Street NW around 6:30 am: “Robbery Force Violence, 3D is on the scene of a Robbery Force Violence in the 1400 block of P Street NW. LOF/ 2 subjects wearing all black clothing. Sent on: 10/17 06:36”

Felony Threat

Monday, September 19, 6:23 pm, 1400 block of U Street NW: “A Felony Threats offense occurred in the 1400 block of U St., N.W. (PSA 208) and was subsequently reported to the MPD. The witness reported that a subject became belligerent after being asked to leave the establishment. He threatened to return and kill two of the employees. The MPD was summoned and responded to the scene. The suspect was detained, subsequently arrested and charged accordingly. This is a closed case.”

Threat To Do Bodily Harm

Thursday, September 15, 11 pm, 1800 block of 18th Street NW (food establishment): “The reporting person stated that after serving two customers food, she was presented a menial tip and asked by the customers if the amount was enough. She replied yes, only if her service was bad and if not, then it was not enough of a tip. In response, the two customers became indignant and threatened to do bodily harm to the victim. When a manager was summoned the two suspects fled from the establishment. The suspects are described as: #1-Hispanic/Female, 21-22 YOA, 5’3″-5’5″, 115-120 lbs. with brown eyes, long black hair, a medium complexion and a medium build. She was last seen wearing blue pants, a gray shirt and a black jacket. #2-Black/Female, 18-21 YOA, 5’9″, 150-160 lbs. with brown eyes, short black hair, a dark complexion and a medium build. She was last seen wearing blue pants and a red shirt.”