Collection Ratio = Total reported collections of estimated movie (A) / Total reported collections of comparative movie on like for like reported centres (B)

Screen Ratio = Total Screens (Film A) / Total Screens (Film B)

I estimate Dabangg 3’s week 1 collections to be around 113-115 CR. This is the lowest number considering BOI usually excludes non hindi collections. Hence I would draw the conclusion that Dabangg 3 has been over reported.

Opening week for Dabangg 3 is best described as very sluggish and a disappointing opening, even taking into account protests. It’s the weakest opening for the franchise despite a big gap of 7 years since Dabangg 2. Protests can account for a loss of business but the trend in daily numbers suggests even without protests the total lifetime was destined for a weak total.

Week 2

Dabangg 3 fell by 85% to record collections of 16-17 CR in week 2 for a running total of 129-132 Cr. The movie has flopped. Lifetime collections will struggle to hit 140 Cr. My number is closest to BOI’s total of 132 Cr. No week 2 estimates for Sumit and Rohit.

Share this:

Related

This entry was posted on January 9, 2020 at 4:00 PM and is filed under the good. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

This is the first time I’ve seen Komal use the “Blockbuster” verdict in his annual ratings. Seems a better choice than “Movie Marvel of the Year” or “Box Office Wonder” verdicts that he came up for Ghajini/3I and Bahubali 2 ;).

H4 being Commission Earner is no surprise given that he claimed it needed 180-200Cr just for break even. Kesari being only a Overflow is unexpected though. As is the verdict for Total Dhamaal.

Gully Boy is pretty much the first ever clean Hit for Excel. Ayushmaan just about misses out on 3 clean Hits in a year with Article 15 being a Semi Hit. Is Badla AB’s first solo FI Hit since Aaj Ka Arjun?

Absolutely a flop. Basically 9 years on from Dabangg, screens and price inflation plus at least 20% boost from GST/entertainment tax, Dabangg 3 = Dabangg lifetime. Nothing but a flop. Actually a disaster story if just talking vs expectations.

For Good Newzz I will use it as a base model for multiplex centric movies. It’s not sensible to compare it to HF4 or Dabangg 3. First week is similar across most sources so nothing looks odd except my model’s estimate – not going to do a CDI slice off on Good Newzz.

Dabangg 3 box office proves that Salman over-reports his underperformers by a margin of 15-20 cr. Producer number for Dabangg 3 is around 150 cr. In real terms, it probably has done around 135 cr as Jay’s analysis shows. Similarly, Bharat is unlikely to have done much beyond 190-195 cr, Race 3 was in 145-150 cr range and Tubelight may not even have done 100 cr.

We have seen SRK resorting to such over-reporting PR during his downward curve. Now Salman is doing the same.