MLB Computer Power Rankings 9/4: We use average sim win %s for each team vs every other team (healthy on a neutral field) to determine power ranking

Even with the juice, the Astros are a good betting value. Their 28.3% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #2 in the league. Current Odds are 11/4, 26.7%. They are projected to win 105 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 96.5. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 88-52. At 90-50 they are in line with these expectations.

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Dodgers would be a good betting value. Their 28.9% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #1 in the league. Current Odds are 9/4, 30.8%. They are projected to win 105 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 92.5. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the NL. After 141 games, their expected win percentage is 61% based on the money line odds. At 91-50 they are in line with these expectations.

Their 9.6% chance is #3 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 7/2, 22.2%. They are projected to win 104 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 97. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 81.2-58.8. At 91-49 they are in line with these expectations.

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 6.5% chance is #5 in the league. Current Odds are 10/1, 9.1%. Their pre-season futures line was 84 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 76.7-61.3. At 86-52 they are in line with these expectations.

They are a good bet to win the championship (2.9 percent chance). Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to win 94 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 91. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 79.5-59.5. At 80-59 they are in line with these expectations.

They win the championship in 6.3% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 18/1, 5.3%. They are projected to win 92 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 89. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the NL. After 137 games, their expected win percentage is 55% based on the money line odds. At 78-59 they are in line with these expectations.

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 6.9% chance is #4 in the league. Current Odds are 10/1, 9.1%. Their pre-season futures line was 86 wins so they have a push with 22 games remaining. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the NL. After 140 games, their expected win percentage is 54% based on the money line odds. At 86-54 they ahead of expectations.

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 0.1% chance is #14 in the league. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. They are projected to win 88 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 93.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AL. After 138 games, their expected win percentage is 59% based on the money line odds. At 74-64 they short of expectations.

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 1.5% chance is #11 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to win 95 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 81.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 71.4-66.6. They are ahead of expectations with their 80-58 record.

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.7% chance is #10 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to win 92 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 84.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the AL. After 141 games, their expected win percentage is 58% based on the money line odds. At 82-59 they are in line with these expectations.

Their simulation based win percentage (3.6%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. They are projected to win 88 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 87.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the NL. After 138 games, their expected win percentage is 54% based on the money line odds. At 75-63 they are in line with these expectations.

Their 3.2% chance is #8 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. They are projected to win 91 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 88.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the NL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 72.2-65.8. At 78-60 they ahead of expectations.

Their 0.1% chance is #15 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. They are projected to win 85 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 75.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the NL. After 139 games, their expected win percentage is 49% based on the money line odds. At 72-67 they are in line with these expectations.

14

NEW YORK METS (70-68, 50.7%): Winning 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

Projected Record: 84-78

They do not have any real chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. They are projected to win 84 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 85.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the NL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 72.8-65.2. At 70-68 they are in line with these expectations.

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 0.3% chance is #12 in the league. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. They are projected to win 84 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 89. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 71.5-65.5. At 72-65 they are in line with these expectations.

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.3% chance is #13 in the league. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. They are projected to win 84 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 86.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the NL. After 138 games, their expected win percentage is 52% based on the money line odds. At 71-67 they are in line with these expectations.

They are projected to win 78 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 71. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +2000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 63.4-76.6. At 68-72 they are in line with these expectations.

They are projected to win 77 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 73.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the NL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +900 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 61.6-76.4. At 66-72 they ahead of expectations.

They are projected to win 74 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 79. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the NL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +425 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 139 games, their expected win percentage is 49% based on the money line odds. At 64-75 they are in line with these expectations.

They are projected to win 75 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 78.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +500 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 68-70. At 64-74 they are in line with these expectations.

They are projected to win 71 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 78.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the NL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +500 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 61.5-76.5. At 60-78 they are in line with these expectations.

They are projected to win 73 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 82. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +300 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 69.7-69.3. At 65-74 they are in line with these expectations.

They are projected to win 66 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 74. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +1000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 60.8-79.2. At 55-85 they are in line with these expectations.

They are projected to win 72 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 73.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +800 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 57.4-80.6. At 61-77 they are in line with these expectations.

They are projected to win 67 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 85.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the NL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +190 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 140 games, their expected win percentage is 47% based on the money line odds. They are coming up short of expectations at 59-81.

They are projected to win 68 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 73.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +2000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 61.9-78.1. At 58-82 they are in line with these expectations.

They are projected to win 59 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 69. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +2000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 58.3-80.7. At 50-89 they are in line with these expectations.

They are projected to win 58 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 63.5. In simulations they finish last in the NL based on projected wins. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +4000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 52-85. At 49-88 they are in line with these expectations.

They are projected to win 55 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 59. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +4000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 139 games, their expected win percentage is 36% based on the money line odds. They are coming up short of expectations at 46-93.

They are projected to win 48 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 68. In simulations they finish last in the AL based on projected wins. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +2000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 54.2-82.8. At 40-97 they short of expectations.