Modi looks to revive Quadrilateral alliance in talks with US

NEW DELHI â€” When President Obama landed here for a three-day visit, he brought a long list of issues to discuss, like energy and trade. But when he and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India sat down to talk, the first 45 minutes were dominated by just one: China.

Mr. Obama and his aides discovered to their surprise that Mr. Modiâ€™s assessment of Chinaâ€™s rise and its impact on the greater strategic situation in East Asia was closely aligned with their own. Just as they did, Mr. Modi seemed increasingly uneasy about Chinaâ€™s efforts to extend its influence around the region and interested in a united approach to counter them.

He agreed to sign a joint statement with Mr. Obama chiding Beijing for provoking conflict with neighbors over control of the South China Sea. He suggested reviving a loose security network involving the United States, India, Japan and Australia. And he expressed interest in playing a greater role in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, where India could help balance Chinaâ€™s influence.

For years, American presidents have tried to enlist India, the worldâ€™s largest democracy, in a more robust partnership, partly to offset Chinaâ€™s rising power. India has had a long history of suspicion and rivalry with China, which allied with New Delhiâ€™s archenemy Pakistan during the Cold War. But it has long insisted on being an independent actor in world affairs and resisted aligning itself with the United States against its giant neighbor.

Mr. Modi, by contrast, seems not only willing but eager to redefine Indiaâ€™s relationship with the United States at a time China is on the rise economically, militarily and politically.

â€œThere has been a lot of ambivalence in India about China, just as there has been in the United States,â€ said K. Shankar Bajpai, a former Indian ambassador to the United States and China. â€œNow, both sides are clearer about their own interests and better understand that those interests are similar.â€

If that proves enduring, it could signal a shift more consequential than any specific deals or statements signed during Mr. Obamaâ€™s stay here. In effect, American officials hope the two powers can do much more together than the United States could do alone to restrain Chinaâ€™s ambitions and preserve the postwar order in the region.

The possibility of an Indo-American partnership tilted against it clearly aggravated China this week as it lashed out against Mr. Obamaâ€™s visit to New Delhi. A commentary in Xinhua, the official Chinese state news agency, dismissed what it called a â€œsuperficial rapprochement.â€ It recalled that the United States once barred Mr. Modi from traveling there and that the two were fighting just a year ago over the arrest of an Indian diplomat accused of exploiting a housekeeper in New York.

The Republic Day parade in New Delhi. Patrols by Chinese nuclear submarines in the Bay of Bengal last year shook Indiaâ€™s defense establishment.
STEPHEN CROWLEY / THE NEW YORK TIMES
The Xinhua report went on to say that the visit â€œis more symbolic than pragmatic, given the longstanding division between the two giants, which may be as huge as the distance between them.â€ It added: â€œThree days are surely not enough for Obama and Modi to become true friends, given their hard differences on issues like climate change, agricultural disputes and nuclear energy cooperation.â€

Global Times, a state-run Chinese newspaper, warned that the United States was setting a trap for India. â€œThis fixed pattern of thinking was created and hyped up by the West, which, with ulterior motives, regards the â€˜Chinese dragonâ€™ and the â€˜Indian elephantâ€™ as natural rivals,â€ it said.

American officials said China would have nothing to worry about if it did not bully its neighbors, and noted efforts to cooperate with Beijing, most notably the climate agreement Mr. Obama struck in November, a far more significant deal than he struck on the same subject here.

â€œThe way in which the United States and India approach the issue in the Asia Pacific is very similar in the sense that nobody is aiming for confrontation with China or even to contain China,â€ said Benjamin J. Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser to Mr. Obama. â€œAt the same time, I think what you see is that the United States and India are committed to a rules-based order in this part of the world.â€

Video | Scenes From Indiaâ€™s Republic Day Parade President Obama and the first lady attended Indiaâ€™s Republic Day Parade on Monday and watched a grand display of military hardware, marching bands, helicopters and elaborately dressed camels.
The discussions on China came amid a broader effort to strengthen ties between the United States and India. On his second day here, Mr. Obama sat for two hours as the chief guest at Indiaâ€™s Republic Day parade showcasing the countryâ€™s mainly Russian-made military hardware.

He also hosted a meeting of American and Indian executives to talk about expanding trade. The United States does about $100 billion in trade with India a year, a fraction of the $560 billion it does with China. Mr. Obamaâ€™s administration has set a goal of increasing trade with India to $500 billion a year.

Mr. Obamaâ€™s conversation with Mr. Modi on China was â€œreally qualitatively differentâ€ than past discussions with Indian leaders, according to a senior administration official, who like several others asked not to be identified describing the private talks. â€œI really was struck that he took a similar view to us,â€ the official said.

For a joint statement, Mr. Modi agreed to American language on Chinaâ€™s regional disputes. The leaders reaffirmed â€œthe importance of safeguarding maritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation and over flight throughout the region, especially in the South China Sea.â€ They also called â€œon all parties to avoid the threat or use of forceâ€ in maritime disputes.

Mr. Modiâ€™s suggestion of fresh security cooperation linking the two with Japan and Australia would bring back a short-lived effort involving the four democracies that began in 2007. Known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, it drew protests from China and was abandoned a year later with a change of government in Australia.

Mr. Modiâ€™s determination to play a greater role in Asian affairs, a policy known as â€œAct East,â€ coincides with Mr. Obamaâ€™s own so-called pivot to Asia. The two countries had been moving toward consensus on China for years, but that was particularly solidified by events of the last year, analysts said.

Among the most important were patrols by Chinese nuclear submarines in the Bay of Bengal, which India considers its strategic backyard. The patrols sent a shudder through Indiaâ€™s defense establishment, as building delays and accidents have left its submarine fleet severely depleted. The possible presence of Chinese nuclear missiles so close to Indiaâ€™s coastline undercut its nuclear deterrence.

The second event was a three-day visit in September by President Xi Jinping of China during which Chinese troops confronted Indian troops in the disputed Ladakh region of Kashmir, infuriating Mr. Modi, who had planned to make considerable efforts to get relations with China off to a good start.

â€œMr. Modi discovered that the more charming and hospitable you are to the Chinese, the tougher they decide to be with you,â€ said Lalit Mansingh, a former Indian foreign secretary and ambassador to the United States.

The two essentially squared off in a proxy fight earlier this month in Sri Lanka, which had hosted one of the Chinese submarines last fall. Although India denied directly intervening, it was happy when elections this month turned out a government friendly to China. The election was seen as a setback for Beijing.

Indian leaders had long feared that being too cozy with the United States would poison relations with China, Mr. Mansingh said. But if being nice to China led only to further confrontation, then one of the last obstacles to closer cooperation with the United States dropped away, he said.

â€œObamaâ€™s visit shows that Mr. Modi has concluded that the U.S. is not just a strategic partner but is Indiaâ€™s principal strategic partner in the world,â€ Mr. Mansingh said. â€œItâ€™s a clear upgradation in the relationship, and it signals a new direction of Indian foreign policy.â€

It seems that a deeply entrenched section of politicians and bureaucrats are deeply afraid of China. UPA II was definitely wary and at times outrightly cowed by our northern neighbour. Communists and their supporters in the so called intelligentsia are going to suck up to the PRC anyway, so we have to disregard them.

But then as they say there is a new sherif in town and things are looking up. It was time we steered a new course.

It seems that a deeply entrenched section of politicians and bureaucrats are deeply afraid of China. UPA II was definitely wary and at times outrightly cowed by our northern neighbour. Communists and their supporters in the so called intelligentsia are going to suck up to the PRC anyway, so we have to disregard them.

But then as they say there is a new sherif in town and things are looking up. It was time we steered a new course.

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Fear primarily stems from China's Zero Sum Game. Not the correct analogy to bring in here, but everybody fears a "mad dog".

It recalled that the United States once barred Mr. Modi from traveling there and that the two were fighting just a year ago over the arrest of an Indian diplomat accused of exploiting a housekeeper in New York.

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A fine example of Chinese (im)maturity in political Propaganda.

The CCP mouth piece should understand that, India has grown past such messups and with its posturing in such events has shown US its place. Now the relationship is more on par with each other.

The mouth piece conviniently forgot the Chinese excursion into Indian territory while their CCP leader was on 'diplomatic peace visit' to India.

â€œMr. Modi discovered that the more charming and hospitable you are to the Chinese, the tougher they decide to be with you,â€ said Lalit Mansingh, a former Indian foreign secretary and ambassador to the United States.

Why isn't Russia included in the alliance? Aren't they a VERY important role player in the region? Is it just because of its rivalry with USA?

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Because:
1. China is the only power that Russian can rely upon when facing USA;
2. No one would join an alliance that won't work. Why? Both sides want a free ride since neither of them can make a good offer.

Russians are insignificant. They have been neutralized and their economy destroyed.

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It looks Staged that Oil Price Dropped and the biggest looser in the world seems to be russians .. their Currency has had a free fall so bad it was reduced to Junk.. Its possible it was Calculated reduction in Oil Pricing.. Im not sure if anyone would support this possibility

Modi is a making a lot of sense, very unlike Indian leadership in general, and at a rather quick pace, take this other move of inviting Japanese for the submarine contest. This is bound to be unsettling and unnerving for a lot within India and overseas, Modi needs to keep a watch on his back, just as he is doing this and more, he is buying a lot of enemies who have till now benefited from the previous set ups and would be hating all that is happening.

I don't think that China is showing the real example of Pragmatism. China is acting more like a bully. Even the US doesn't pester it's neighbours so much.

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USA-Canada with the exception of Mexico have one of the most peaceful borders in the world. We have no disputes and USA being the super power does not bully her neighbours. It is good to know that India has come abroad to hold the talks with three nations named and hope something concrete comes out to make CCP/PLA thugs piss in their pants.

Russians are insignificant. They have been neutralized and their economy destroyed.

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Sir, their economy is falling. But I do not think they are neutralized. They are still going strong in Ukraine via supporting the pro-russian rebels. When the time comes, I think they are very much capable of using their massive force against any enemy.

Among the most important were patrols by Chinese nuclear submarines in the Bay of Bengal, which India considers its strategic backyard. The patrols sent a shudder through Indiaâ€™s defense establishment, as building delays and accidents have left its submarine fleet severely depleted. The possible presence of Chinese nuclear missiles so close to Indiaâ€™s coastline undercut its nuclear deterrence.

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This is key. Unless India feels they have a navy that's enough to take on Chinese and even beyond that, deterring and restricting the Chinese via an alliance with US, Japan and Australia makes perfect sense.

â€œMr. Modi discovered that the more charming and hospitable you are to the Chinese, the tougher they decide to be with you,â€ said Lalit Mansingh, a former Indian foreign secretary and ambassador to the United States.

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Not sure why he'd ever consider otherwise or is he unaware of Nehru and his mistakes?

Indian leaders had long feared that being too cozy with the United States would poison relations with China, Mr. Mansingh said. But if being nice to China led only to further confrontation, then one of the last obstacles to closer cooperation with the United States dropped away, he said.

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Relations with China were already poisoned but the nuke sub incident might have broken the camel's back. Anyway, glad they realized.

If the Chinese can pretend to want to want good relations with us while helping Pakis all they can, it would be stupid of us not to reciprocate us by not only arming the small countries around China but also building pacts to contain China.

At the same time, we must increase economic ties with China and it seems GoI is right on this with FM visiting there and the PM to follow by May or so.

â€œObamaâ€™s visit shows that Mr. Modi has concluded that the U.S. is not just a strategic partner but is Indiaâ€™s principal strategic partner in the world,â€ Mr. Mansingh said. â€œItâ€™s a clear upgradation in the relationship, and it signals a new direction of Indian foreign policy.â€

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Sure but hopefully they are being careful while dealing with US, thought not sure if there is much other choice in the matter.

Sir, their economy is falling. But I do not think they are neutralized. They are still going strong in Ukraine via supporting the pro-russian rebels. When the time comes, I think they are very much capable of using their massive force against any enemy.

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They are surrounded by NATO . Their strong military is their only savior.
Their economy is finished and sanctions have an iron grip around them.
Putin has to even find new sources of food.