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In 2017 global emerging markets stocks and currencies posted their best return since 2009. And even after this robust performance emerging markets continue to offer attractive investment opportunities as economic growth outpaces the developed world in 2018 (4.9% vs 3.3% forecast growth this year (Shroders)), current account deficits improve, political volatility moderates and structural reforms…

Until last weekend I summarised to myself that Barnier and Juncker’s line was that since we declined to be governed by them we’d have to pay them some money. But at the weekend Theresa May mentioned that it would be important for British expertise in resisting Islamist terrorism to be recognised (i.e. easing back on…

20 February 2018

Evil Diaries

Until last weekend I summarised to myself that Barnier and Juncker’s line was that since we declined to be governed by them we’d have to pay them some money. But at the weekend Theresa May mentioned that it would be important for British expertise in resisting Islamist terrorism to be recognised (i.e. easing back on…

A day in the life of a fund manager: the chairman emailed early yesterday with the pithy advice that something had gone on at Aberdeen. Since he is a card-carrying, kilt-swirling Scot, I presumed that in that northern city they had run out of IrnBru. I let the matter slip. But when the butler…

16 February 2018

Equities

In 2017 global emerging markets stocks and currencies posted their best return since 2009. And even after this robust performance emerging markets continue to offer attractive investment opportunities as economic growth outpaces the developed world in 2018 (4.9% vs 3.3% forecast growth this year (Shroders)), current account deficits improve, political volatility moderates and structural reforms…

It may sound strange to talk about housebuilders such as Barratt (LON:BDEV) and Bellway (LON:BWY) as turnaround opportunities. After all, the two stocks are up 136% and 163% respectively in the last five years. However, in the last month their shares are 11%+ lower after the government announced potential plans to crack down on land…

19 February 2018

Trading

The novice investor or trader often obsesses about where to get into a trade or investment and may spend much time trying to refine this process. Indeed there is a whole industry around the perfect entry signal; buy now or miss out on massive gains, XYZ share cannot go any lower… Of course, we all…

Last month saw some interesting statistics concerning the US stock market. Unless you have been living in a cave in recent years, you will be aware that the major US indices have continually pushed to fresh all-time highs. The latest leg higher within that multiyear trend started after the US election last year – markets…

16 November 2017

Economics & Markets

The British political class is riven with dissent over what type of Brexit is most desirable. This is because, after two years of Brexit argy bargy, few Brits really understand the issues – and least of all in the Labour Party. A discourteous proposition Last week Monsieur Barnier, the EU Chief Negotiator, threw a document…

Imagine a continent which leads the world in mobile telephony banking and in fourth generation (satellite) internet access. This is a continent which has achieved remarkable advances in health outcomes as evidenced by levels of infant mortality and life expectancy, and in education over the last two decades. And which is now enjoying supercharged growth.…

13 February 2018

Commodities

This week has been dominated by falls in share prices across the globe caused by raised inflation expectations. It would be unsurprising for there to be more volatility as investors continue to adjust their forecasts for inflation. With Donald Trump’s tax and spending policies yet to have their full impact, coming to terms with higher…

The rise of bitcoin this year has taken all but its most ardent supporters by surprise. The virtual currency has risen by as much as 17x since the start of the year, with it passing $17,000 for the first time this week. While it could move higher in the short term, ultimately it appears to…

11 December 2017

Funds & Investment Trusts

One of the attractions of investment trusts is that in many cases the fund manager stays in place for years and this continuity increases the likelihood of consistent performance. Recently however, there have been a number of high profile departures that have forced investors to decide whether to stay put or move their money elsewhere.…

At times of extreme market stress, investment trusts tend to behave more like equities than funds, with the prevailing sense of nervousness driving their prices well beyond their underlying net asset values. This discount volatility creates both an extra source of risk as well as a potential opportunity. Whenever the market experiences a sharp sell-off…

06 February 2018

Brexit

The British political class is riven with dissent over what type of Brexit is most desirable. This is because, after two years of Brexit argy bargy, few Brits really understand the issues – and least of all in the Labour Party. A discourteous proposition Last week Monsieur Barnier, the EU Chief Negotiator, threw a document…

As a hard or crash Brexit edges closer, it now seems there is no binary option between the EU Customs Union and WTO rules. The Americans are not making things any easier for the UK. Why would they? The truth behind the Bombardier dispute revealed In 2007 the Canadian aerospace company Bombardier (TSE:BBD.A) announced plans…

13 October 2017

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