NFL Betting Systems

NFL Betting Systems

A betting system is just another word for betting strategy. It is a tool, a comprehensive and most of the time, mathematical. The reason it is a tool is because betting systems use numbers and statistics to make it that much more effective. These systems are used by sports bettors to try and predict the outcome of a match or championship. Do not be fooled, there are many different NFL betting systems out there, and some work and other don’t. Look for the systems that have a proven record, and before actually using the system, test it out before actually placing a bet to see how well it performs. There are various different systems, but I will only talk about two; the point differential system and the comprehensive NFL system.

These systems can get complicated, so I will be simplifying them for the bettors convenience.

Point Differential System

This system is based on the team’s performance, usually over the span of 5 to 6 games. This system has various steps that a bettor needs to follow in order to effectively use it.

First Step: Past Game Schedule

This is where the bettor needs to get the information regarding the two teams, which are in the upcoming match, and list their past matches. The match will be between the Packers vs. the Jets, where the Packers are the Home team.

Green Bay Packers

VS.

San Diego Chargers

Green Bay Packers

VS.

Cleveland Browns

Green Bay Packers

VS.

Cincinnati Bengals

Green Bay Packers

VS.

Kansas City Chiefs

New York Jets

VS.

Minnesota Vikings

New York Jets

VS.

Houston Texans

New York Jets

VS.

Denver Broncos

New York Jets

VS.

San Diego Chargers

Second Step: Home and Away Stats

This step requires the bettors to determine each team overall stats, points scored and points scored against.

Team

Points Scored

Points Scored Against

Green Bay Packers

84

94

New York Jets

89

92

Third Step: Calculate the Averages

Here, the bettor will calculate the averages of the teams. They played four games, so simply divide the total by the amount of games played to get the average.

Team

Average Points Scored

Average Points Allowed

Green Bay Packers

21

23.5

New York Jets

22.25

23

Fourth Step: Calculate the Opponents Averages

The bettor has to do the same process, but for the opposing teams during that four-game streak. Find each team average and then find the average of those averages. It sounds complicated but really isn’t.

Packers Opponents Averages

Team

Points Scored

Points Allowed

Chargers

21.3

18.4

Browns

19.5

22.7

Bengals

20.8

21.9

Chiefs

22.6

19.7

Average Points

21.05

20.68

Jets Opponents Averages

Team

Points Scored

Points Allowed

Vikings

23.2

21.4

Texans

20.3

20.7

Broncos

18.3

19.6

Chargers

22.1

18.8

Average Points

20.975

20.125

Fifth Step: Calculating Team Performance

During this step, the bettor will be calculating the performance of the Packers and the Jets. They will calculate it by dividing their Average Points Scored and Average Points Allowed by the total Averages of their opponents.

Team

Offensive Performance

Defensive Performance

Green Bay Packers (Home)

0.9976 or 99.76%

1.13 or -13%

New York Jets (Away)

1.06 or +6%

1.14 or -14%

For offensive performance: the value of 1.00 is the average performance, thus if the value is below 1.00 then they are only performing at that percent of the average. If the value is above, it means they are playing above average by that value.

For defensive performance: the value of 1.00 is the average performance. If the value is higher than 1.00, it means that the team is performing below average by a certain percent. If the value is lower than 1.00, it means the team is performing better than the average by that value.

This means that the Packers are performing at 99.76% of the average offensive performance, and is below average by 13% in defensive performance. The Jets performed 6% better than the average in offensive performance and performed 14% below the average defensive performance.

Sixth Step: Adding the Percentages

This step is to figure out the Away and Home team’s performance figures, which will be used to compare and figure out which team has better performance.

To calculate the Home team’s performance figure: Add the Home team’s offensive performance with the Away team’s defensive performance then divide by two.
To calculate the Away team’s performance figure: Add the Away team’s offensive performance with the Home team’s defensive performance then divide by two.

Team

Calculation

Performance Figure

Green Bay Packers (Home)

(0.9976 + 1.14) / 2

1.07

New York Jets (Away)

(1.06 + 1.13) / 2

1.1

Seventh Step: Average Points

This step requires the bettor to calculate the team’s offensive number.

To calculate the Home team’s offensive number: Add the Home team’s points scored with the Away team’s points allowed then divide by two.
To calculate the Away team’s offensive number: Add the Away team’s points scored with the Home team’s points allowed then divide by two.

Team

Calculation

Offensive Number

Green Bay Packers (Home)

(21 + 23) / 2

22

New York Jets (Away)

(22.25 + 23.5) / 2

22.875

Eighth Step: Predicting Points Scored

Here the bettor will be able to calculate the predicted points scored for each of the team’s.

To calculate the Home team’s predicted points scored: Multiply the Home team’s offensive number by its performance figure then add 1.5. Home teams get a +1.5 as they have home team advantage.
To calculate the Away team’s predicted points scored: Multiply the Away team’s offensive number by its performance figure then subtract 1.5. Away teams get a -1.5 as they are playing on the road.

Team

Calculation

Predicted Points Scored

Green Bay Packers (Home)

22 x 1.07

23.54

New York Jets (Away)

22.875 x 1.1

25.17

Final Step: Predicted Outcome

The predicted final score of the match between the Green Bay Packers and the New York Jets is: 23.54 – 25.17; in favor of the New York Jets.

That is how a bettor can use the Point Differential system to predict the outcome of a match.

Comprehensive NFL System

This system was created by a NFL coach, and it has been proven to work in most cases, but primarily during the playoffs and the Super Bowl. It can be adapted and used for regular season game play as well. The system is as follows:

Points Given

If a Team

10

Has won a Super Bowl in last three years

8

Whose opponent is playing in first Super Bowl of franchise history

8

Has won a conference title in the past three years

8

Allowed the fewer defensive rushes

7

Has three-year playoff experience

7

Best straight up win/loss record

7

Most offensive rushes

5

Lower defensive rush average per carry

4

Best net kick/punt touchdown returns

4

Better record against the point spread

4

Superior net penalty yards

3.5

Best yards per pass attempt

3.5

Given up the fewest points

3.5

Allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns

3

Has most sacks

2.5

Fewest offensive pass attempts

Points are given to the team that meets the criteria, and at the end, the points are added. These points are then compared to see which team has better chances at winning a playoff game or the Super Bowl. Very simple system and can be edited, changed, and adapted to particular situations on the NFL.

Final Thoughts

These systems should be used as guides and not as 100% effective methods. There are many other systems that can be found online, be sure to check them out and use the information that works. Bettors are always improving ways of betting on the NFL, so try and create your own betting system that works for you.