Never mind that the Dow has gained 107.62 points, or 0.5%, to 24017.46 on Tuesday, putting it up 10.8% since its Dec. 24 low, or that the
S&P 500
has gained 10.2% during that period after rising 0.9% to 2605.03 today.

Ramsey points to the fact that none of the “long-term trend-following disciplines within the Momentum category...has flipped back to bullish status,” as one reason to remain bearish.

He also notes that the rally off the lows looks a lot like other bear-market rallies. Since 1945, a bear-market rally in the S&P 500 has lasted an average of six weeks and lifted the market by 10.8%. the current rally has lasted about three weeks.

How sure is Ramsey of his call? “Our conviction is high enough that we turned down a journalist’s request to comment for a feature story on the bull’s ‘upcoming 10th anniversary,’” he writes. (It wasn’t ours.)

Either way, we won’t know for sure until the Dow and the S&P 500 either close down 20% from their all-time highs, or trade new ones.

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