Yeah, the SAG Ensemble is the only acting nod I actually thought it had a (small) chance of getting. Individual Academy acting nods are obviously out.

Not true. Numerous critic awards, like the NYFCC, LAFCA and NSFC give awards to actors for a body of work for that year– if Hathaway is getting nominated (and most likely she will) it'll be for both TDKR and Les Miserables.