Balancing act in a region of chaos

The need to survive in a volatile neighbourhood has meant that India's diplomacy has to be dynamic, but given the surrounding chaos, the key would be to develop levers in countries where its reflexes are strong.

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In the next six months, Indian diplomacy will have to fine-tune a new policy for the neighbourhood; it will have to gear up for conducting diplomacy amid growing chaos in the region.

In Pakistan, even though the indications are that Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League has an upper hand, analysts are still not writing off Asif Ali Zardari's Pakistan People's Party. Many feel that in case Sharif misses the numbers, Zardari, who is trying hard for his party to return, may be able to put his wellknown political bargaining skills to effective use. This is significant as Imran Khan has managed to draw the crowds, but with little political organisation, it is unlikely that he will be close to the winning post.

General Musharraf too, now faces a legal battle; he knows full well that he has no chance to win the hustings, but his only hope is that with no party getting a clear majority, he could convince the Army generals that he is their man. But all this will only bring even more chaos to a country that is already in shambles on the economic front and is also facing a terrible security situation. In fact, analysts believe that in the run up to the elections, there may be political violence and whatever party forms the government, chaos will be a common theme.

On the eastern flank too, in Bangladesh, the Shahbag protesters symbolised a cry for change, ism and radical Islam and calling for recreating a new Bangladesh. However, the bitter divide between the ruling Awami League and the Opposition Bangladesh National Party and its affiliate Jamaat-EIslami has come to the fore. And with the Sheikh Hasina government pushing for death sentence to the Razakars, and the 1971 liberation war criminals and the youth calling for a change, the chaos will only deepen. The country has already witnessed a cycle of violence and the forthcoming period will also see turbulence given the upcoming elections, despite the ruling government's hopes to stabilise the country.

While in Nepal, the last Parliament's term expired almost a year ago, but elections set for November 2012 were cancelled because of political infighting. Finally, the current Chief Justice Khil Raj Regmi has been sworn in as Nepal's new prime minister to head an interim government, which will hold elections by June 21. Nepal had plunged into a serious political and constitutional crisis after the political parties failed to deliver a constitution before the dissolution of the Constituent Assembly in May last year.

Here too, Indian interests have suffered due to the lack of a clear direction and the inability to take major decisions. And, the political turmoil means that India's security interests are also hit, as China and Pakistan continue to use Nepal as a fertile ground for anti-India vendetta.

Nawaz Sharif.

Chaos will also continue to reign in Afghanistan, where the Taliban is already making its violent resurgence each passing day, as the deadline of 2014, when most foreign troops will exit the country is fast approaching. Afghan President Hamid Karzai's grip is only shrinking, giving groups like the Haqqani faction of the Pakistan Taliban more leeway to strike at India's security interests.

The need to survive in a volatile neighbourhood has meant that India's diplomacy has to be dynamic, but given the surrounding chaos, the key would be to develop levers in countries where its reflexes are strong, so early tip-offs can be received and actions can be taken to deal with the situation. South Block will also have to ensure that it doesn't send out mixed signals; it should watch out for countries undercutting its strategic interests and ensure that the various organs of the national security apparatus, the Prime Minister's Office, the MEA and agencies like the R&AW and IB are at sync with each other.

While many countries across the globe would be easily frightened of safeguarding their national interest amid chaos, considering the inherent chaos of the Indian democracy, this should be a no-brainer for South Block. The bottom-line should be that we remain prepared on the ground with effective options to deal with the situation.

In love with Tokyo

It will be the season of love with Tokyo for Indian diplomacy, as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is all set to undertake a long delayed bilateral trip to Japan on May 28 to hold a summit meeting with the Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe.

Japanese Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko.

And, in a first ever visit by a Japanese emperor, Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko will visit India this year to expand the relationship between the two countries.

Tokyo is keen to expand strategic ties with India, and Abe is a huge supporter for a new paradigm of an Indo-Japanese relationship. The bilateral visits are also important because they would cement the relationship between the two key Asian countries beyond economic and political association.

Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe.

India and Japan can work on maritime security ensuring the sea lanes are secure; they also have a shared interest in ensuring that their energy security needs are met and in cooperating closely on defence and trade ties. Tokyo may also find a willing ally in India to counter China's aggressive activities in South China Sea and in the Indian Ocean.

Although both have been cautious about speaking out on this issue so far, given the repeated provocations that both face from Beijing, it may be a good idea to embark on a redefined strategic partnership that blends in the new geo-political realities.

The Patna old boys connection

Arun Singh, the new Indian Envoy to France, and India's Permanent Envoy to the UN in Geneva, Dilip Sinha.

India's diplomatic hotspots will soon be manned by out-of-the-box thinkers, who all share the Patna connection. They are all also part of the old boys network of St. Xaviers and St. Michael in Patna. Dilip Sinha is already in Geneva as India's Permanent Envoy to the UN in Geneva.

Fellow Patna boy Jayant Das Gupta, India's Ambassador to the WTO in Geneva and Arun Singh, the new Indian Envoy to France are also from the same school. Singh was earlier India's Deputy Ambassador in the US.

Also part of the same club is India's new envoy to Sri Lanka Yash Sinha, and Amar Sinha, the new Indian Ambassador to Afghanistan. With Indian diplomacy poised to see fresh challenges in the months ahead, hopefully this old boys net can provide some good ideas to promote India's diplomatic outreach.

India gets a security lesson on Israel Day

In the capital's list of diplomatic dos, the recent event by the Israelis to celebrate their national day stood out in a five star hotel in New Delhi. With an attack on an Israeli diplomat in New Delhi, the Israelis and their Indian hosts didn't want to take any chances.

The venue having had a good number of top diplomats and dignitaries, there were security agents, armed to the teeth, milling around in the crowd along with the Delhi police, which provided the additional security cover. What the Indians can learn from the Israelis is that while they secured the venue, the security was not at all intrusive.