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Thursday, June 8, 2017

Crisis in the Gulf: Escalation or negotiation?

Turkey’s parliament is this week fast tracking the dispatch
of up to 3,000 troops to Qatar, home to the country’s military base in the Middle
East. Certain to stiffen Qatar’s resolve to resist Saudi and UAE-led pressure
to force it to change policies, the Turkish move comes amid hints that the
kingdom and its allies may seek to undermine the rule of Qatari emir Sheikh
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.

The stakes for both sides of the Gulf divide could not be
higher. Saudi Arabia and the UAE cannot afford to fail in their effort to force
Qatar’s hand after leading several Arab and non-Arab states in a rupture of
diplomatic relations and declaring an economic boycott that also targets Qatar’s
food supplies. By the same token, Qatar cannot afford a cave-in to Saudi and
UAE demands that would humiliate the country and effectively turn it in to a
Saudi vassal.

The dispatch of Turkish troops as well as Turkish
and Iranian offers to help Qatar offset the impact of the boycott by ensuring
that its food and water needs are met positions the Gulf crisis and Saudi
Arabia’s proxy war with the Islamic republic as a political rather than a sectarian
battle. Sunni Turkey and Shiite Iran countering of the Saudi-UAE campaign undermines
the kingdom’s effort to project its rivalry with Iran as both a sectarian
conflict and a power struggle.

The dispatch of troops and the emergence of a pro-Qatari
alliance opposed to that of Saudi Arabia also eases pressure on non-Arab Muslim
states to take sides. By raising the stakes, Turkey and Iran could potentially contribute
to efforts to find a political solution to the crisis.

The move to quickly dispatch troops to Qatar came a day
after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned the Saudi-UAE effort to
isolate sanctions and cripple it with sanctions. Mr. Erdogan warned that the
moves would fail to solve problems and said he would do what he could to end
the crisis.

Kuwait is already attempting to bridge the gap between the
Gulf states and Qatar while the United States and Germany have called for a
political solution. Iranian
Foreign Minister Javad Zarif was scheduled to visit Ankara to discuss ways
of resolving the Gulf crisis.

That may prove to be easier said than done. Saudi Arabia and
the UAE are bent on avoiding a repeat of 2014 when Qatar failed to respond to
the withdrawal of the Saudi, Emirati and Bahraini ambassadors from Doha by caving
in to their demands that it halts its support for Islamists and militants. The
three countries were forced to return their ambassadors after an absence of
nine months with little to show for their action.

Leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE have moreover put their
credibility on the line by not only breaking off diplomatic relations but also
imposing a harsh boycott. The UAE, apparently concerned that the boycott, and
particularly the targeting of food supplies, could spark domestic criticism,
made expressions of sympathy with Qatar a criminal
offense punishable with up to 15 years in prison and/or a fine of at least
US$ 136,000. Up to 40 percent of Qatar’s approximately $1 billion in food exports
a year were trucked to Qatar from Saudi Arabia until this week’s eruption of
the crisis.

Also raising the stakes is the fact that a Qatar capable of
resisting Saudi and UAE pressure would effectively contribute to a Muslim bloc
in the Middle East that stands for everything Saudi Arabia and the UAE are
seeking to defeat.

Inevitably, closer Qatari ties with Turkey as well as Iran,
with which the Gulf state shares the world’s largest gas field, would become a
fixture of Middle Eastern geopolitics. Iran is already helping Qatar not only
with food but also by allowing Qatar Airways flights to Asia to cross Iranian
airspace in their bid to circumvent Saudi, UAE and Bahrain airspace that has
been closed to them.

Beyond demonstrating that Qatar is not alone in its fight, the
dispatch of Turkish troops would also seek to dissuade Saudi Arabia and the UAE
from intervening directly in the Gulf state.

Turkey and Qatar have long pursued similar policies. Both countries
supported the 2011 popular Arab revolts.

By contrast, Saudi Arabia and the UAE went to great length
to thwart their success., including helping engineer the military coup that in
2013 toppled Mohammed Morsi, a Muslim brother and Egypt’s first and only
democratically elected president. Saudi and UAE troops also helped Bahrain
brutally squash its 2011 popular uprising.

Turkey and Qatar moreover both support the Muslim
Brotherhood, rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Islamist
groups in divided Libya. The UAE and Saudi Arabia alongside Egypt back the
internationally recognized Tobruk-based Libyan government that joined them in
breaking off relations with Qatar.

Turkey set up a military base in Qatar with some 150 troops,
its first in the Middle East, as part of an agreement signed in 2014. Turkish
officials have since said Turkey’s presence would be increased to some 3,000
troops.

Turkey’s move to expedite the dispatch of additional troops
to Qatar came as UAE state
minister for foreign affairs Anwar Gargash said that one “cannot rule out
further measures. We hope that cooler heads will prevail, that wiser heads will
prevail and we will not get to that."

Accusing Qatar of being "the main champion of extremism
and terrorism in the region," Mr. Gargash insisted that "this is not
about regime change -- this is about change of policy, change of approach."

Egyptian, Emirati and Saudi newspapers, none of which are
known to be truly independent, reported in recent days that domestic opposition
to Qatari emir sheikh Tamim was mounting.

“We have long been silent about the irrational practices of
the regime in Qatar,” Sheikh Saud bin Nasser Al-Thani, a little known member of
the ruling family which is believed to account for up to 20 percent of Qatar’s
citizens, told Egypt’s
Youm7 newspaper.

Abu Dhabi’s The
National newspaper reported that the party would advocate a Qatari policy
in line with Saudi and UAE demands, including curbing the activities of Sheikh
Hamad’s wife, Sheikha Mozah Al-Misnad, who heads Qatar Foundation; freezing Qatar’s
relations with Iran, ending Qatari support for Islamists in Libya and Egypt,
and expelling Islamist leaders from the Gulf state.

“On behalf of the Qatari people, we offer the highest
apology to the people of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Egypt, Yemen
and other countries that have been abused and harmed by the Qatari regime. We
inform you that the Qatari people do not approve of the national policies that
seek to shatter the Arab unity,” Sheikh Saud said in a statement
carried by Egypt Today.

“Qataris are questioning whether this is going to end up in
seeing a change in leadership itself in Qatar,” added Sultan Sooud Al Qassemi,
a prominent liberal intellectual, art collector and businessman who is a member
of the ruling family of the UAE emirate of Sharjah.

Earlier, Salman al-Ansari, the head of the Saudi American
Public Relation Affairs Committee (SAPRAC), a Washington-based lobby, warned
Sheikh Tamim that he could meet the same fate as Mr. Morsi, the toppled
Egyptian president.

The Arab press reports notwithstanding, there is little by
which to gauge possible support for opposition to Sheikh Tamim among the
military or the public in Qatar, which like others in the region controls its
media but has not imposed the kind of draconic penalties on freedom of
expression introduced this week in the UAE.

Whatever the case, Qatar and Turkey hope that a substantial
presence of Turkish troops rather than the fact that Qatar also hosts 10,000 US
troops on the largest US military facility in the Middle East, would complicate,
if not dampen, any plans to force Sheikh Tamim’s exit.

Said Mr. Al Qassemi: “The Qataris should not count on that
base as being a guarantee or sort of American protection when it comes to
conflict with Saudi Arabia. I think the Americans would choose to side with
Saudi Arabia over any other country in the region.”

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About Me

James M DorseyWelcome to The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer by James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Soccer in the Middle East and North Africa is played as much on as off the pitch. Stadiums are a symbol of the battle for political freedom; economic opportunity; ethnic, religious and national identity; and gender rights. Alongside the mosque, the stadium was until the Arab revolt erupted in late 2010 the only alternative public space for venting pent-up anger and frustration. It was the training ground in countries like Egypt and Tunisia where militant fans prepared for a day in which their organization and street battle experience would serve them in the showdown with autocratic rulers. Soccer has its own unique thrill – a high-stakes game of cat and mouse between militants and security forces and a struggle for a trophy grander than the FIFA World Cup: the future of a region. This blog explores the role of soccer at a time of transition from autocratic rule to a more open society. It also features James’s daily political comment on the region’s developments. Contact: incoherentblog@gmail.comView my complete profile