Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 07, 2015

The euro managed to fill yesterday's gap closing above 100Dsma. The early dip was bought filled 100 pips gap down, but rejected at the higher levels during the US trading session. The negative result in the referendum pushed the Greek debt solution into dark zone.

Technical view: The 20Wsma was found at 1.1020 and 100Dsma was found at 1.1040. The weekly resistance is seen at 1.1121, 1.1150, and 1.1280. Bulls lost all the daily moving averages except for 100Dsma. The 100Dsma at 1.1040 is put to the test today. A daily close below 1.1040 made bulls lose 1.0950 immediately. The real selling emerges below 1.0950 towards fresh lows. The pair has been moving towards lower highs and lower lows in the H1 and H4 charts. All these factors favor bears. Developments in Greece are the only driving factor during this week. The FOMC meeting minutes are due on Thursday. Until the pair closes below 1.1280, gates are open for 1.0800 initially, 1.0600 and 1.0500 later. The long-term picture favours moving to the sub-level of 1.000.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1070, 1.1100, and 1.1120. Traders can buy above 1.1125 with targets at 1.1150 and 1.1170. Strong bears can start selling between 1.1200 and 1.1245 sl 1.1280. Fresh selling is available below 1.1000 towards 1.0960, 1.0930, and 1.0900 during a day. Today's trade is likely to be driven by the euro summit outcome and US trade balance. In the extreme case, the pair is likely to fall to 1.0850. The panic will trigger below 1.0950.