Four Major Problems with the Iran Deal

It is breathtaking in its concessions to a regime that is the foremost sponsor of terror and vows to annihilate the Jewish state.

Israel has long been concerned that the “P5+1” powers would negotiate a bad deal with Iran. But the deal announced in Vienna is breathtaking in its concessions to an Iranian regime that is the foremost sponsor of terror in the world, is on a march of conquest in the Middle East, is responsible for the murder and maiming of thousands of U.S. soldiers, and vows and works to annihilate the one and only Jewish state.

There are four major problems with this deal. First, it leaves Iran with a vast nuclear infrastructure. This is not the hoped for “dismantle for dismantle” deal, in which the sanctions regime would be dismantled in exchange for the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear-weapons making capability. Rather, this deal leaves Iran’s nuclear capabilities essentially intact (the conversion of the Arak heavy-water facility being the notable exception). In fact, this deal allows Iran to improve those capabilities by conducting research and development on advanced centrifuges and building intercontinental ballistic missiles, whose sole purpose is to carry nuclear warheads.

To keep Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions in check over the next decade, the P5+1 countries – the five U.N. Security Council members plus Germany – are relying on intelligence and inspectors. Here, the historical record does not bode well. The United States and Israel have two of the finest intelligence agencies in the world. But it was years before either knew that Iran had secret facilities at Natanz and Fordow .

As for inspections, Iran has been deceiving the International Atomic Energy Agency for years and has consistently refused to come clean about the possible military dimensions of its nuclear program – a commitment that Iran has once again been permitted to dodge before signing this agreement.

Given this history of deception, it is particularly disturbing that the promised “anytime, anywhere” inspections regime has degenerated into what has been aptly described as “sometime, somewhere” inspections.

The second problem with this deal is that the restrictions being placed on Iran’s nuclear program are only temporary, with the most important restrictions expiring in 10 years.

There is no linkage whatsoever between the removal of these restrictions and Iran’s behavior. In 10 years, Iran could be even more aggressive toward its neighbors, sponsor even more terrorism around the globe and work even harder to destroy Israel, and the restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program would still be automatically removed.

A much more dangerous Iran would then legally be allowed to build a massive uranium enrichment program that would place it just weeks away from having the fissile material for an entire nuclear arsenal. As President Obama himself has admitted, the breakout time would then be “almost down to zero.”

That is why this deal does not block Iran’s path to a nuclear bomb. It paves it. By agreeing to temporary restrictions on its nuclear program today, Iran has cleared its path to many nuclear bombs tomorrow. Iran won’t have to sneak into or break into the nuclear club. Under this deal, it could simply decide to walk in.

That leads to the third problem with the deal. Because states throughout our region know that the deal paves Iran’s path to the bomb, a number of them will race to get nuclear weapons of their own. The most dangerous region on earth would get infinitely more dangerous. Nuclear terrorism and nuclear war would become far more likely. In fact, if someone wanted to eviscerate the global nuclear nonproliferation regime, this deal is definitely a great place to start.

Finally, the deal transfers to the Iranian regime’s coffers $150 billion that is now frozen in foreign bank accounts. Iran has a $300 billion to $400 billion economy. A $150 billion cash bonanza for the regime is the equivalent of $8 trillion flowing into the U.S. treasury.

Those funds are unlikely to be spent on new cancer research centers in Tehran or on funding a GI bill for returning members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Instead, tens of billions are likely to flow to the Shiite militias in Iraq, the Assad regime in Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Palestinian terror groups in Gaza and other Iranian terror proxies in the region.

Billions more will go to strengthening Iran’s global terror network, which it has used to perpetrate terror attacks on five continents in more than 30 cities, from Buenos Aires to Burgas, Bulgaria, to Bangkok.

Rather than force Iran to face the hard choice of guns or butter, this deal will enable it to have more dangerous guns, more lethal rockets, more sophisticated drones and more destructive cybercapabilities. Removing the arms embargo on Iran magnifies this problem by orders of magnitude.

Any one of these problems would be sufficient to make this a bad deal. But all four make this deal a disaster of historic proportions.

Israel has the most to gain if the Iranian nuclear issue is peacefully resolved. But this deal does not resolve the issue. It makes things much worse, increasing the chances of conventional war with Iran and its terror proxies today and dramatically increasing the chances of a nuclear-armed Iran and a nuclearized Middle East tomorrow.

As I mentioned before on this same space in Spanish, what's the alternative? To maintain an ambigious situation Iran does not observe anyway? As President Obama said: you don't sign these kind of agreements with friend states, meaning my opinion that if Iran doest not duly observe this new Deal ---most probably--- Iran will become an enemy of the whole worl and not only from Israel.

(13)
Steven,
July 26, 2015 2:42 AM

Their are two scenarios in this debate. 1. Support the deal and get some real restrictions on Iran nuclear program that have international support2. Oppose the deal and open up the U.S to charges that it killed the last chance to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

(12)
Ppanther,
July 21, 2015 4:12 PM

Why would we be sanctioning a madman's deal?`

There is only one reason why America would sanction a deal that put madmen in charge of the world by giving them such a weapon and that is that they have lost their sound minds or they are on the same side as our enemies. Our ship has been hijacked and is headed for disaster not only for us but for the whole world thanks to madmen that are under satanic influence with the intent to destroy all of mankind. It boils down to good vs. evil, period.

(11)
Anonymous,
July 21, 2015 4:04 PM

What is behind the billions of dollars given to this heathen nation?

I do not pretend to understand why we would be giving huge amounts of money to this nation that has been under sanctions for their threat to the world, who holds foreign national prisoners without any concessions for their release. No wonder they are rejoicing at the seeming stupidity of the West, when we have a rogue leader giving away the 'farm.' Who in their right mind would make such a deal? Those involved have to be demented or demonically controlled.

(10)
Anny Matar,
July 21, 2015 9:34 AM

THIS DEAL DOES NOT PUT ISRAEL ONLY IN DANGER BUT THE WORLD

This PROPAGANDA that the deal endangers Israel only is just another old tick used by Nazi Germany pre WWII Goebbels and Hitler used it to convince the world of the Jewish threat to the world. It cost 6million lives. This deal DOES NOT endanger Israel only, it endangers the whole world because, it indirectly gives carte blanche (full support, green light) to all the terror groups worldwide that all nations are too afraid to stand up to them. It's now "free for all" including China/ North Korea/ Iran. The West, America have shown their fear for battle, are putting the lives of their people in danger and Israel, that little country, that Jewish disliked country BECAUSE IT IS JEWISH!!, stands up against those paper tigers, and says loud and clear "IT'S A BAD DEAL!!!

(9)
fred,
July 18, 2015 5:26 AM

Former Munich now Vienna

Obama was generous so was Chamberlain. Iran jumped for joy for the unexpected largesse received from Obama & the EU. How they fooled openly a world ,worthy of an Oscar. US never got its hostages back, the celebrations in Iran were "Death to US " , "Death to Israel " as for the European they got the Muslim "Colonist " to influence their thinking.

(8)
Anonymous,
July 17, 2015 6:21 PM

This article presents reality

Anyone who does not understand the truth of this article and how TOTALLY wrong and dangerous it will be if this deal is accepted has their head stuck in the sand.Bibi is heroic in taking on Obama and should be praised.

(7)
Bert K aye,
July 16, 2015 7:24 PM

This Deal Should not go thru

Can not trust them

(6)
ARTH,
July 16, 2015 7:13 PM

What are the consequences of no agreement?

No one would like to discuss that... Even if Iran is acting in bad faith, it would be far harder for Iran to develop an operational nuclear device in this accord than it would be without it...

(5)
larry babitts,
July 16, 2015 4:52 PM

He's Not President of Israel

Barack Obama is President of the USA, he is NOT the President of Israel and one has to realize that governments always act in their own interest first. This deal may be another Munich, but then again it may very well prevent a large war in the Middle East. Now, for the significant question how many American-Jews are willing to send their sons or grandsons to fight - and die - defending Israel? If not us, then who should send their young men and women? Keeping this in mind, I say let's try the deal and see what Hashem plans for the future holds

David,
July 19, 2015 2:26 AM

The US is what we're concerned about

Israel can protect itself. If the US doesn't support Israel, then the US risks being punished by Hashem.

Another thing, Obama and Kerry were NOT acting in the interests of the US, but in the interests of their meshugana leftist ideology.

(4)
Harry E Heller,
July 16, 2015 4:34 PM

Do you really think that your one sided arguments and phoney survey can convince an American Zionist?

Michael:Step out of your Fox, Krauthammer, Cheney neo-con bubble, who were wrong on Iraq. I am an American Zionist with many friends and family in Israel who I visit regularly. I am insulted about how Bibi talks about the U.S. efforts virtually insulting Kerry and our Atomic scientific community. Golda Meir said "you have to negotiate with your enemy." Egypt and Jordon (and now the Saudis) were our enemies and it took a courageous Menachem Begin to negotiate with them. Bibi has no spine. Why didn't you have a choice in the questionnaire -- "attack Iran"

Martialman7,
July 16, 2015 6:30 PM

How about an alternative?

All this vitriol and not one word about an alternative? Makes no sense. We all know what the problems are--how about a solution.

Anonymous,
July 20, 2015 3:48 PM

Proud ignorance of the left

Chamberlain had such dreams in 1938 of making peace with Hitler. Everyone despised the "warmonger" Churchill for simply telling us Hitler's own words.

"You had a choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war."

(3)
Anonymous,
July 16, 2015 4:08 PM

Helpless

Thank you for this summary of a danger for Israel and the world in general. What a shame that there is nothing any of us can do about it.

(2)
LIZ,
July 16, 2015 3:28 PM

ISRAEL throws out bogus responses to this historic deal. Two nuclear scientists last night destroyed everyone of Bibis lies...there is not only satellite's that watch the skies...but the IAEA will be there every day to check anywhere in that country..the only bunch against this deal is Israel a non declared nuclear country and Saudia Arabia (sunni) who despise the Shia. We applaud the President and all the other nations who got this historic deal and stopped a war which would have led to WW3 or nuclear planet disaster.

Alan S.,
July 17, 2015 11:33 PM

Not so fast...

Perhaps the deal will be good for Israel, perhaps it is very good for the USA -- of this I will be happy. No one can know at this stage. But of one thing I am certain: no country that is in a perpetual state of war, and is routinely threatened with nuclear annihilation, can be reasonably thought to 'throw out bogus responses". Finally, I heard two American scientists support what Israel has said. This response is simply not justified based on current facts.

(1)
Gordon Ross,
July 16, 2015 2:58 PM

Abject appeasement

What a bunch of losers, including enemies of Israel who do not care if their own countries go down so long as the one-and-only Jewish State goes down with them!