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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 9, 2017

*** Epidemic Update -9 August: First report from IN. CDM has been confirmed in Starke County, IN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update -7 August: New reports from VA, NC, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Chowan County, NC; Montgomery County, VA; and Anderson County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled South; transitional weather North. The weather map shows a stationary front in the South, high pressure over the North, and an east-west (mostly) stationary front in the far northern U.S. / southern Canada. Scattered showers are expected across the South; largely dry weather in the North will give way to showers in some areas on Thursday. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview:Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and southern Appalachians. Transport events tend to move near the known sources (both days) and to the north to northeast (mainly Thursday). The more favorable conditions through midweek lie in the southern half of the U.S., edging to the north with time.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 9

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the FL panhandle, MS, AL, central and southern GA, southern and eastern SC, and coastal NC. Moderate Risk in central and northern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in deep south and southeast TX, northern SC, interior southeast NC, and western and central NY.Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TKat NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 7, 2017

*** Epidemic Update -7 August: New reports from VA, NC, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Chowan County, NC; Montgomery County, VA; and Anderson County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update -4 August: New reports from MI, NY, and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Saginaw and Ingham Counties, MI; Ontario and Onandaga Counties, NY; and Haywood, Ashe, and Caldwell Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Active weather this week. Expect clouds, rain, and showers along and ahead of a front that stretches from the mid-Atlantic through central TX. High pressure pushing the front into the southern states brings drier weather to the northern areas Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs in the 70s and 80s with some 90s South, lows in the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview:Epidemic spread likely many areas. We have a typical summertime forecast scenario, where conditions are quite favorable along and ahead of a front, are mixed farther to the south and east, and unfavorable to perhaps slightly favorable behind the front or on the back side of a low pressure system. Risks depend on the timing of the fronts and events, the degree of washout expected early in the events, and the antecedent conditions. The most favorable conditions early this week will be in the northern and southern areas, with generally lesser risks in between.

Forecaster: TKat NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 4, 2017

*** Epidemic Update -4 August: New reports from MI, NY, and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Saginaw and Ingham Counties, MI; Ontario and Onandaga Counties, NY; and Haywood, Ashe, and Caldwell Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update -2 August: New reports from MD, OH, and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Prince George's, St. Mary's, and Anne Arundel Counties, MD; Franklin County, OH; Chatauqua County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled summertime weather. A long frontal system moves into the eastern and southern states with its western end extending into the Plains. The front will pass through the Northeast / mid-Atlantic, stall over the South, and get re-energized in the central U.S. Saturday into Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers are possible most areas on one or more days. The wetter weather will occur in the far South, in the North on Friday, and in the central U.S. Saturday and Sunday. Highs in the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview:Epidemic spread likely in the North and the South; possible Central. Conditions for epidemic spread vary quite a bit, day-to-day and region by region. Transport events move near-source and/or north to east.

Forecaster: TKat NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 2, 2017

*** Epidemic Update -2 August: New reports from MD, OH, and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Prince George's, St. Mary's, and Anne Arundel Counties, MD; Franklin County, OH; Chatauqua County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update -31 July: First report from MA; new reports from NY, PA, and AL. CDM has been confirmed in Franklin County, MA; Suffolk, Seneca, and Cattaraugus Counties, NY; Bucks County, PA; and Chilton County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled far South and North; mostly dry elsewhere. Moisture is on the increase in the eastern U.S. / southern Canada during midweek. Scattered to numerous showers will fire in the far South and near a meandering frontal boundary in the North. Drier weather persists in between. Post - Tropical Cyclone Emily, who brough rain to FL earlier this week, moves northeast off the Southeast coast and should have little to no impact. Highs mostly in the 80s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview:Epidemic spread likely in the northern areas and the Southeast. Transport events tend to track near the sources and to the northeast. The more favorable conditions for epidemic spread are heavily weighted across the North and toward the Southeast.

Forecaster: TKat NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 31, 2017

*** Epidemic Update -31 July: First report from MA; new reports from NY, PA, and AL. CDM has been confirmed in Franklin County, MA; Suffolk, Seneca, and Cattaraugus Counties, NY; Bucks County, PA; and Chilton County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update -28 July: New reports from AL, PA, and OH. CDM has been confirmed in Elmore County, AL; Union, Lawrence, and Huntingon Counties, PA; Holmes and Delaware Counties, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Mostly dry. A broad area of high pressure over eastern North America yields drier and less humid weather for nearly all regions early this week. A few showers are possible in the far South and far North (near some fronts) and in the Plains. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows mostly in the 60s..

OUTLOOK:

Overview:Epidemic spread likely in FL; unlikely most areas. Unfavorable conditions are dominant during nearly all the transport events on Monday and Tuesday. The lone exceptions are in FL. Transport events tend to move slowly near the sources.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 31

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in east-central MI, western NY, southeast NY, and western MA.Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 1

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Low Risk for cucurbits in western NY, and a large section of central PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.