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Economic forecasters and astrologers share not just a common high season (December) and a yearning for respect, but also a common trick: splitting a coming year into halves, one bad, one good.

The emerging Wall Street consensus for a tough first half to 2013, followed by a better second half, appeals to our fondness for symmetry, deferred gratification, and happy endings. The case for a weak first half even sounds persuasive: Higher taxes and spending cuts will vex our economy as 2013 begins. Beijing's new leaders are anxious to rev up Asia's biggest growth engine, but their economic reforms won't be unveiled until March. Synchronized money printing by global central banks will have more time to work its magic, and stock buyers' resistance could thaw by summer.

Yet given the market's nose for masochism, should we be surprised if things don't go as planned? Stocks have been known to climb in the face of discouraging cues if they smell better days ahead, just as easily as they can stall when economic evidence and public opinion finally catch up.

It helps that CEOs and investors alike are guarded as 2012 draws to a close. An index measuring economic-policy uncertainty jumped in November toward its highest level in 27 years. Tracked by professors at Stanford and the University of Chicago, it measures, among other things, media anguish over uncertain policies and dissension among forecasters, and has been shriller only during 2011's debt-ceiling debate. Meanwhile, companies have put off hiring and spending, and a barometer of CEOs' economic outlook plunged from 89.1 in the second quarter to 65.6 recently, the worst reading since 2009.

Be greedy when others are fearful; isn't that what Warren Buffett says? Even Wall Street's reflexively bullish seers are crouching, rather than pouncing. BofA Merrill Lynch's equity strategists track the suggested allocation to stocks at other sell-side firms, and it shrank in late November to 46.5%, well below the 15-year average near 61% or levels even during the financial crisis. Meanwhile, leading indicators of earnings revisions are holding up, with highly cyclical components like scrap-metal prices, trucking, and box production ticking higher. Spending on big-ticket items has been muted in recent years. At some point, that could pick up.

A lot will depend, of course, on what Washington does next. Over the past five years, we've agonized so much over the correct policy for our debt-addled economy that a merely clearer policy would come as a relief. If our politicians can avert a fiscal disaster and articulate a coherent vision, the stock market's valuation multiple just might expand enough to offset downward revisions to short-term profit forecasts.

U.S. businesses also should find increasing support from our nascent energy boom, argues ISI Group. Thanks to a big head start in shale exploration, we now enjoy some of the world's cheapest energy, with U.S. natural-gas prices at about $3.31 per million British thermal units, versus nearly $13 in Japan. Over the past six years, America's energy production has quietly climbed to the equivalent of 20 million barrels of oil a day from roughly 15 million, while imports have shrunk to eight million from 14 million. In the long run, lower energy costs will help make our manufacturers more competitive, cut trade deficits, and ease inflation pressures.

But being the biggest name in its niche also means its bullish thesis is long familiar. ACC's shares, now trading near 45, have tripled during the bull market, thanks to our hunger for yield. They fetch 59 times 2012 profits, or 25 times funds from operations. In line with this, the dividend yield has shrunk from more than 7% in 2009 to about 3% -- below the REIT average, adding pressure to acquire more properties and grow earnings.

Meanwhile, surging tuition and years of subpar economic growth have spawned a generation of realists. Young Americans still want degrees, but more now regard college as a losing short-term investment and are keen to minimize costs -- by enrolling closer to home or taking in roommates. Increased construction could pressure rents and occupancy. And while ACC was able to scoop up choice real estate closer to our temples of higher education during the housing bust, this can only get tougher as housing mends.