Moscow defied Theresa May's deadline, so here's what the UK could do now

Moscow defied Theresa May's deadline, so here's what the UK could do now

Updated 14 March 2018, 20:30 AEDT

By Benjamin Sveen

Moscow gave no explanation as to how a rare Russian-made nerve agent came to be used on British soil, so the question turns to what diplomatic weapons the United Kingdom is willing to brandish to make Russia pay.

Theresa May's midnight deadline passed with no explanation from Moscow on how a rare Russian-made nerve agent came to be used on British soil.

A diplomatic showdown between Whitehall and the Kremlin now looms: the British Prime Minister promises to set out "the full range of measures" against Russia, which pledges to respond to any "punitive measures" in kind.

The question now turns to how Britain intends to make Russia pay.

Or more precisely, what diplomatic weapons the United Kingdom is willing to brandish in response to the poisoning of the MI6 informant Sergei Skripal.

Strongest actions need international cooperation

"We now all know that Russia is a problematic member of the international community that needs to be constrained from its more extreme actions," says the former British ambassador to Russia, Tony Brenton.

"We in the UK will do what we can, but it is important that the rest of the West contributes to that effort and that includes Australia."

Mr Brenton, who was ambassador to Russia when the former FSB spy Alexander Litvinenko was assassinated in London, has foreshadowed a possible raft of economic and diplomatic sanctions designed to hurt Russian businessmen with close links to Russian President Vladimir Putin and to target Moscow's intelligence agents abroad.

Britain's trade relationship with Russia is limited, which means it enjoys the freedom to take economic actions against it without simultaneously needing to rely on Russian gas to keep its economy going.

But since British trade with Russia only amounts to 2-2.5 per cent of either countries' export market, it is unlikely that cancelling bilateral business deals will exert much pressure on Moscow's foreign policy.

"You could stop the sale of Bentleys and Rolls Royces, but Russian oligarchs are equally as happy in Mercedes and BMWs," says Dr Matthew Sussex from ANU's National Security College.

So the corollary becomes: how much are Britain's security partners willing to risk to draw a line in the sand?

"I'm not sure what the UK could do that would harness the rest of the EU and NATO's support and bring about a change in the behaviour of either the regime or rogue elements within it," Dr Sussex says.

Target the oligarchs closest to the Kremlin

"The thing that's most likely to be effective is targeted sanctions at people with close connections to the Kremlin, Russian businessmen particularly, whose assets can potentially be seized," Dr Sussex says.

"The UK can stop their income flow and at the same time, it can stop them travelling to the UK, and that would send a pretty strong signal in my view."

Russians have proven themselves to be relatively unresponsive to economic sanctions in the past, as demonstrated when the European Union established sanctions to protest Moscow's involvement in the Ukrainian Civil War.

Mr Brenton has identified two likely courses of action the British Government could take: the expulsion of Russian intelligence officers from the UK, along with tougher visa restrictions for Russian nationals.

"What I'm sure we have in mind are diplomatic sanctions focused essentially on making life very uncomfortable for the Russian intelligence agencies in the West who will have perpetrated the attack in Salisbury," he says.

Western security experts say that over the past decade, the number of Russian intelligence operatives working in the United Kingdom has returned to Cold War levels.

Since Russia had previously jailed Mr Skripal after he allegedly supplied the identities of its secret agents working undercover to MI6, the identification and expulsion of Moscow's agents in Britain could make for an apt act of retaliation.

Such an action presents a risk that Moscow will return the favour by expelling British spies from Russia.

Boycott the World Cup — or Russian broadcasters

A more arbitrary option the UK Government has considered is some form of boycott of the World Cup in Moscow later this year.

Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson told Parliament "it will be very difficult to imagine that UK representation at that event will go ahead in the normal way".

"Not a single British media outlet will work in our country if they shut down Russia Today," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told state media.

Washington: The known unknown

Ultimately, the key to all this will be what the United States does.

In a phone call with Ms May earlier today, Donald Trump agreed that the Russian Government has questions it must answer.

Even so, the US President has declined to publicly attribute responsibility for the attack to Russia so far.

"As soon as we get the facts straight, if we agree with them, we will condemn Russia or whoever it may be," he told reporters outside the White House.

It was far from the categorical assertion by his outgoing Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who had been telling reporters the attack "clearly came from Russia," just hours before he was fired via Twitter.

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