With the midterm elections less than four weeks away, it is clear that what is needed is not one “wave”, but four “waves”.

A “Blue Wave” is needed, the gaining of, hopefully, control of both houses of Congress, and the majority of state governorships and state legislative majorities.

But a “Pink Wave’ is needed by a mass uprising by women of all backgrounds, races, sections of the nation, to make clear that misogyny and abuse of women by conservatives and Republicans will no longer be tolerated.

There is also a need for an “Orange Wave”, promoted by Fred Guttenberg, the father of Parkland victim Jaime Guttenberg, on the need for a serious movement toward gun control and regulation, as we are losing tens of thousands of victims, many of them in schools and universities, and also many through suicide. This must include serious promotion of mental health initiatives, so that we do not have the constant massacres of innocent human beings, because of the lack of concern by the gun industry, which is only interested in profits.

And finally, a “Green Wave” is needed by those who care about climate change and the environment, determined to fight to prevent the destruction of the environment by coal companies, oil companies, natural gas companies, and corporations in general, who all think only of the profit motive now, and not the long range effect of what their companies are doing. And the struggle against the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of the Interior leadership must be fought with vehemence, as the future of America and the entire globe are at stake.

Friday, October 12, 2018 — We are now 25 days from Election Day, which is Tuesday, November 6, 2018. So, how is it looking?

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U.S. House will become a new majority Democratic pickup.

I was looking at “Real Clear Politics’s” average of polls, which covers the period of September 27–October 9, 2018.

Nine pollsters. Average from them is: Democratic +6.9. Given the 2018 margin for the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, was Republican +1.08, that means the historical average of 3.59 (historically each nationally shifted percentage point) x 7.98 (the 2016-to-2018 national shift) = a net gain of +28 seats for the Democrats.

From these nine pollsters, the range of polling leads runs as high as Democratic +13, from CNN, to as low as—get this!—a tie, from Rasmussen Reports. Okay, so, that is a 13-point spread from the highest to the lowest margins. That means, a range of +3 or +4 seats gained by the Democrats, if Rasmussen turns out to be correct, to +50 seats gained, if CNN turns out to be correct.

One other cited pollster, figured into the average, is IBD/TIPP. It reports: Democratic +2. That would be a net gain of +11 seats for the Democrats.

The 2018 Democrats need to win the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, by a margin of +6 percentage points. That is the whole-number estimate. It used to be +7. But, this was when the Democrats had 193 seats and needed a net gain of +25 to win over a new majority. Now that the 2018 Democrats head in with 195 seats, with needing a net gain of +23 to win over a new majority, it turns their whole-number, target margin is +6. So, 3.59 x 7.08 = a net gain of +25 seats for the Democrats.

If Rasmussen Reports and IBD/TIPP turn out to be correct, or closer to correct, bravo to them both while nearly all others were incorrect. But, I think they know the Democrats’ target margin. Their reports suggest Republicans hold the U.S. House. But, there is so much indication that 2018 is a shift in the direction of the Democrats—and not only strongly but sufficiently so—and I don’t buy their poll reports. That means I will be dismissing them.

From the seven other pollsters, as averaged by “Real Clear Politics,” it goes from the Democrats at +6.88 (rounded to +6.9) to an average of +8.57 from the following: CNN +13; Reuters/Ipsos +12; Harvard–Harris +8; Emerson +8; Quinnipiac +7; NPR/PBS/Marist +6; Economist/YouGov +6. With this new average, the math is as follows: 3.59 x 9.65 = a net gain of +34 seats for the Democrats.

My guess is this: the 2018 Democrats will win the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, by a margin between, on the low side, +7.50 to, on the high side, +9.50. This would be a net gain of +30 to +37 seats for the Democrats. But, for those wanting the 2018 Democrats to win by even more, that would encourage how the numbers can affect the following two levels.

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Regarding the U.S. Senate (with several notes): It is looking like an absolute tossup with a slight advantage to the Republicans for a hold. North Dakota Democratic incumbent Heidi Heitkamp is trailing her Republican challenger Kevin Cramer—suggesting her +0.90 margin from 2012 could turn out to be a 2018 loss by about –5. Also a problem, as with the latest from “Five Thirty Eight,” is in Nevada. Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen has been favored to unseat Republican incumbent Dean Heller. He won in 2012 by a margin of only +1.16. “Five Thirty Eight” has it a tossup in which Heller could squeak by with a margin that is narrow like one as +0.5. (I have to wonder about Rosen as a candidate. I would have guessed her to win by +5 to +9. But, she should be able to win especially if the governorship flips Democratic, which is what I think will happen.) The races in Tennessee and Texas are lately favored to be Republican holds by, say, +6 or under. I figure, at this point, the numbers need to move more for the Democrats if they can win over the U.S. Senate. If not, the same numbers going in (51 Republicans vs. 49 Democrats) can be the result going out; or, it could end up a 50/50 tie. The 2018 Democrats need to cushion a possible loss of North Dakota and Heidi Heitkamp with flipping both Arizona and Nevada—and, if winning largely enough nationally, also flipping at least one of Tennessee or Texas.

The races for U.S. Governors receive little attention. But, they are important. The Democrats will need to win the U.S. Popular Vote by possibly +3 or, to be more assured, +4. They lost in 2014 by –4.09. And the average, with each nationally shifted percentage point, is usually past +1 but closer to +1.5 gains. So, a national shift of +7 to +8, in order to win by +3 or +4, should be enough to flip the +10 governorships Democrats need to win a new majority of 26. (Once again—since 1995, the party which had majority in the U.S. House also had the majority of governorships.)

I don’t come across any reports referring the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. Governors, and pollsters make it out to sound like—despite an approximate 10-point shift nationally for U.S. House—it is a mystery as to how many governorships will be gained by the 2018 Democrats. My estimation is this: 36 are on the schedule. I think about 30 gubernatorial races are shifting in the direction of the Democrats. The states in position to receive additional Republican shifts: Alaska (if independent Bill Walker gets unseated); Arkansas; Maryland; Massachusetts; New Hampshire; and Vermont. I leave some room for states like Idaho and Nebraska. But, from this, there are 14 of the nation’s Top 20 populous states on the schedule. And from that, as many as 12 of them are shifting in the direction of the Democrats. (If I am off by one, then Greg Abbott improves on his 2014-to-2018 Republican margin in Texas. He does not have a particularly strong Democratic challenger. But the U.S. Senate race should get Abbott to underperform.)

From the pollsters I have looked at recently, it appears the Democrats’ chances of winning over a new majority of governorships does not look that favorably. But, I think pollsters are underestimating. That is, if I go by those which still list Maine as a tossup. I don’t think Maine is a tossup. I have come across several listing Maine, which I rank below as the Democrats’s No. 20 likely, to those going on down to No. 26, as tossups. Admittedly, it will be tough for the Democrats to reach. It almost feels like asking the stars to align. But, it is possible.

My revised order for likelihood of gubernatorial gains for the 2018 Democrats, who head into the midterm elections with 16, and should they reach the new majority of 26, are as follows: