During more than half a century as the World Cup’s favorite comedy troupe, England’s national soccer team has fearlessly explored every conceivable way there is to shoot itself in the foot.

They have lost when they were favored, they have lost as underdogs, they have lost in normal time, in extra-time, on penalties, and once on a blatant handball. England has goofed up in so many imaginative and implausible ways that it seemed to have exhausted the list of possibilities.

But as it prepares to play Belgium in its final group-stage game here Thursday, England may have discovered a new way to choke at the World Cup: by winning.

England has been one of the surprise stories of this tournament. With two wins from its two games so far, it sits at the top of Group G with a berth in the knockout round already locked up. The same is true of Belgium, which also has a perfect record of two wins from two games, meaning the only thing at stake when the two teams square off Thursday is which of them will earn the right to advance in first place.

Which, it turns out, would be a profoundly unwise thing to do. Because a wild two weeks in Russia has blown up the World Cup bracket, stacking one side with five former champions—a murderer’s row featuring the likes of Brazil, France and Argentina—and filling out the other with a bunch of creampuffs.

While the runner-up in Group G will be placed in the weaker half of the bracket, the team that finishes top will be thrown in with the Goliaths on the other side. Meaning we have reached a point where England’s hopes of finally winning the World Cup may be better served by one of its customary losses.

England fans react as they watch the World Cup match between Tunisia and England on a big screen in Millennium Square, Leeds.
Photo:
Martin Rickett/PA Wire/Zuma Press

If all that sounds rather confusing, the notion that England should intentionally lose a World Cup game after years of struggling so hard to win them has proved equally befuddling for the team’s own manager. “For our country, that would be a very difficult mindset to have,” England manager Gareth Southgate said.

But the numbers tell the story rather starkly. Winning the group would place England into a quadrant with Brazil and Mexico, who square off in Samara on Monday, as well as the runner-up from Group H, which could be Colombia. Its chances of progressing to the semifinal would be just 14% according to FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index, which updates each team’s World Cup chances in real-time.

By contrast, finishing in second place would put England into a quadrant with the likely Group H winner Japan, as well as Switzerland and Sweden, where it would have a roughly 20% chance of making the semifinals.

Ordinarily, these sorts of calculations are too tricky to plot out in advance. The final round of games in each World Cup group are played simultaneously, meaning most teams are still fighting to qualify for the knockout stage rather than fretting over their final position in the group.

But England’s matchup with Belgium is the rare instance where both teams have already advanced, only the second of the tournament after Uruguay faced Russia on Monday. In addition, England and Belgium play on the final day of group play, meaning the rest of the bracket has already been filled out. The two teams will know their pathway to the final.

Making all this even more intriguing is that England wouldn’t necessarily need to lose to Belgium to finish as runner-up and earn a spot in the weaker half of the tournament.

England and Belgium both have identical records of two wins from two, but they also boast identical goal differentials, the first tie-breaker used to separate teams. They have also scored the exact same number of goals, the second tie-breaker.

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The next decider is the “fair play” tiebreaker, which calculates how many yellow and red cards a team has been issued--which means England now sits above Belgium by virtue of its superior disciplinary record. It’s entirely possible that the winner of the group could be decided by which team racks up more yellow cards on Thursday, with the team tallying the most getting an easier draw in the knockout stage.

The dilemma facing Southgate and his opposite number, Belgium coach Roberto Martinez, is how to balance these permutations with the more traditional factors a manager must consider, like building momentum and establishing a winning habit.

Southgate, for one, seems to be struggling with the idea that his team should tank. “We want to win every game we go into,” he said. “I don’t know how we would go into a game not wanting to win and not wanting to play well.”

For his part, Roberto Martinez seems more inclined to at least entertain the alternative approach. Belgium is expected to make as many as 10 changes to its first-choice lineup on Thursday. If that wasn’t enough, Martinez is also set to hand a first start to midfielder Marouane Fellaini—a walking yellow card.

“It’s more important for me to be able to give [the backups] that opportunity and see how they can react on the pitch and how much they can contribute,” Martinez said.

England manager Gareth Southgate says his team will be going out to win the group.
Photo:
David Klein/PA Wire/Zuma Press

Southgate is also likely to rotate his starting lineup but reiterated Thursday that his team will be going out to win the group. In a tournament that has already featured its share of surprises, he added, it makes little sense to look too far down the road.

“We will have strong opponents to face whatever happens,” Southgate said. “We have not won a knock-out game at the World Cup since 2006, so why we would be plotting our path to the semi-final is beyond me.”

Granted, it’s possible such talk is merely a smokescreen and that England would secretly be happy to finish up in second place. But if they do decide to play for the matchups in the knockout round, it sounds like it won’t be tough to identify.

“If I go and headbutt Roberto [Martinez] in the last five minutes, you’ll know we’re taking a different approach,” he said.