The Association of Professional Futurists (APF) is hosting its sixthtwitter chat on Thursday, 24 March, 2011 from 4:00 – 5:00 p.m. EDT. hashtag: #futrchat. You can find information about the first five here(education, money, work, transportation, big questions.)

Note: due to Daylight Savings Time in the US, London is 8:00 pm Thursday and Sydney is 7:00 am Friday.

We are excited to announce a new APF posterous site, Profuturists to explore, document, and engage with each other beyond the monthly twitter chats. Please subscribe, monitor it for conversations, meet other futurists and forward thinkers, and add your thoughts.

March topic: The future of disasters

This month, a cascade of disasters hit Japan. An earthquake begat a tsunami begat a nuclear breakdown. Each seemingly was more devastating that the previous. By some strange twist of fate, every major disaster escalates into a perfect intersection of terrible circumstances. The world watches, horrified and helpless. Australia, Brazil, and New Zealand were already 2011 victims, while Haiti and Indonesia remain in fresh in our memories.

What can we expect of disasters in the future? Can we anticipate disasters with any level of useful accuracy? The biggest question is: how can we be most prepared?

In other words, can disasters be tamed?

Are disasters all about cities?

Writing about the effects on cities, I said that disasters are a way of life in the 21st century. The cost of lives and property increases exponentially in densely packed communities. And still, small town destruction like the tornado that nearly obliterated Greensburg, Kansas can also capture worldwide attention.

Disasters go far beyond our concern with large cities. The mountains of rubble in Port-au-Prince or Christ Church become symbols, as does the baby that is miraculously saved. We open our hearts.

While the loss of ancient Troy or Atlantis wreaked terrible chaos for their people, no one witnessed it 24/7 on global media. Today, a disaster’s magnitude stretches far beyond a personal or regional tragedy. We all watch transfixed and suffer together. The twitter pictures and tweets describing one person’s struggles spread the experience like a drop of iodine in water. To ease their pain, we share it. The tragedy engulfs the world.

The empathic experience

Our attention to disasters springs from our humanity, from who we are. We fear being destroyed and feel great empathy for others’ losses.

While the modern era celebrated rationalism, the 21st century embraces meaning and emotions. We are each a whole self, not separate parts of mind and body. According to Jeremy Rifkin, the embodied experience and our participation with each other “is the key to how human beings engage the world, create individual identity,… and define reality and existence.”

Technologies bring us closer together, we can see and hear the events, and we experience them viscerally. 9/11 might have been the first globally-shared trauma; Japan’s earthquake is the most recent. With increasingly frequent disasters of greater magnitude, more infrastructure and possessions to lose and far more people in harm’s way, we collectively join the tragedy, everywhere, all at once.

The conversation about disasters shapes the way that we prepare. Who influences it- the loudest voices, most credible, most powerful? How are resources allocated? What is excellent preparation and response? Or negligent response? Why do some places recover and others collapse? Guy Yeoman, APF futurist, posted some useful references.

The future of disasters

As we see these disasters and their devastation with increasing force and frequency, will we learn? What will be the larger impact of Japan’s quake/flooding/nuclear trifecta? Or Haiti, New Orleans, or Indonesia’s catastrophes? What about the recent floods in Australia and earthquakes in New Zealand?

Can we reduce the severity of events or losses? Can we afford the protections that mitigate damage? How will we decide who or what gets protection and what does not? Will early warning systems improve? Will we abandon some cities, admitting they are not fit for human settlements, feeding the wave of disaster refugees? Will people learn to be smarter or more fearful? Are disasters a new form of overly consuming fear? Are our empathic actions sustainable or will people choose isolationism?

At a personal level, do you live in harm’s way? How well prepared is your city or your family? Do you consider disaster risk when relocating?

Please Join Us – an open tweet chat

You are welcome to join the APF #futrchat and voice your views about the future of disasters. We’ve hosted chats on the future of education, the future of money, the future of work, the future of transportation, and big questions about the future. These chats are fast and intense.

Jennifer Jarratt and I will co-host, asking the formal questions and follow ups. Please ask questions that come to you, add links (if they pertain and are not promotional ads), and teach, inform, persuade, enlighten, or provoke us.

What do you think about the future of disasters?

Join us on Twitter by searching for #futrchat. Please use #futrchat in your tweets, and the Question #, as Q1, Q2, Q3 etc.

As alternative to twitter.com, you can use tweetdeck and search for futrchat (may work faster without the hashtag symbol). Or here are two sites where you join the chat.

Comments

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None of those perspectives are the lesser evil in my opinion. What I can’t believe is that Twilight, which is significantly less creepy in presentation even though the idea behind it is still wrong, got attacked by twelve different fronts and this (hastily deletes word) passes without a sweat. I don’t know what people are thinking. It’s stuff like this that makes me fear for the human race -_-;

I think many people think hypnosis is a sort of parlor game in which the subject is “put under” and can than be commanded to do all sorts of outrageous things.I have been therapeutically hypnotized and my experience was like yours, deep relaxation at an almost serene level, and focus that is intense. At the same time, life was continuing to unfold around me, and I was aware of that, but not jarred by it. Interesting blog, dear Dr. Deb.

Only qustions, no comments.Who is in charge of this pop-up safety group, exactly?What is the role of HIMSS and other HIT industry pop-ups in the spawning of this group? Why has there not been a request for comments?

It’s so funny because my dad did a big majority of the cooking in my house growing up and having had a southern mom he made all kinds of stuff, but I know our favorite had to be biscuits and chocolate gravy.

That stretch of Spider-Man 2, from the point where Peter is sitting with MJ when Doc Oc attacks, to the scene you mention is by far my favorite superhero sequence from any movie. But then, The Incredibles is one of my favorite superhero movies, so obviously my opinion is suspect. Oh, and you should totally see The Iron Giant, if for no other reason than that I had to suffer through it as my kids watched it on countless car trips. Fair is fair.Watching any episode of BTVS makes me a bit emotional just because it’s over.

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Too bad the Phoenix Coyotes declared bankruptcy this year otherwise the NHL All Star game would have also been held in Arizona in 2011. It would make so much more sense to boycott a bunch of white guys slapping around a black thing with sticks.I would think that a bunch of Latinos and Blacks beating the snot out of a white baseball would be right up the libs alley.

The Tory are in a definitely winning scenario. If the referendum is defeated, they’ll be credited for keeping the United Kingdom united. If the referendum is carried, they’ll be a lot closer to an outright majority since many of Labour’s and Libdems’ safe seats are in Scotland. What I found difficult to understand is the position of the LibDems (their Michael Moore is the Secretary of State for Scotland). They got nothing to win in this deal, although it’s in line with their core value to maximise civil rights and liberties.

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Wow, Scott, thanks for participating! I never knew this was your first. I feel as though I should make a virginity joke to mark the moment.By the way, I stole the “monthly recurring charge” line for a post on my local newspaper forums.

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What a lovely post, and thank you for the salute. I also appreciate the comment you left on my blog, it’s been a difficult week for us so I really appreciate the support. Thank you, and enjoy your lovely family x

Ha-ha, yes, on the other side of the road. I agree with your blog that more should be done for all the people coming all the way to Chinatown to enjoy. It is a tough challenge, but it would be great if the performers could perform, and then, parade down the road, ala Disneyland style. It would certainly heighten the atmosphere.Yup, too many distractions lately. (^^)

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In Surowiecki’s post, in point one, the pivotal comment appears to be the longevity of the Continental Illinois takeover. There is no mention as to the success of the C.I. actions or the relative costs and/or benefits to the C.I. takeover. My research into the C.I. episode indicates a positive outcome. Remember, this was the Reagan, Bush era. These pro-business and pro-market administrations would not have “allowed” this longevity unless there was evidence that it was functioning.A timeline argument for accepting or rejecting “nationalization” is no more valid than a patient rejecting chemotherapy for cancer treatment because the course lasts for many months. It is the outcome which is important, not the timeline.

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The suspenders look cute on you. of course if you have doubts, you can always try the jumper dress. It’s sorta similar to suspenders and is in a dress form, something that’s more up your angle. Just a suggestion and something to think about. xD

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Isn't it crazy that our economic model requires the physical impossibility of continual growth. I think the future response will be a growth of new peer-to-peer currencies (I'm building one at ) which rely more on relationships & trust than centrally administered economics…

Thanks for another great review… BTW I love your site, I’m sure we’ve probably bumped elbows at a few Boston-area shows over the years.Jethro Tull was my first-ever concert – in 1980 at the old Boston Garden. They were a “mature” act back even then and it was 30-years ago!I share your pain with all of these great upcoming shows… which ones to go to and which ones to skip. I will also be at the BOA Pavillion on Aug 6th for Gov’t Mule – that one is for certain!Keep up the good work! –

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- I’ve been away and just got back to you Claire. I’m delighted to read that you’ll donate to Aware. It’s not my job to say thanks for that but, since Aware helps me, I think it is right that I thank you for choosing that charity to support.

I agree everyone needs a variety of choice in what they read and I do hope you are right about the next thing being realsim – my new YA novel Don't Judge Me is just out this week and it is another gritty crime novel, so fingers crossed!

Hi Holly,I was in Barrie was very hot! had a great time at a Surprise Bday Party bar-b-Q was great the food was awesome!! Even got a huge Tan not burnt, I go away every Long Weekend ! Came back to Toronto were it was even hotter but I do like the hot weather.

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I’m a journalist, Blair, so I’m always out for the facts. Do you have any documentation for that statement that you can lead me to? My husband was concerned about leaching from steam, so he would want to know for sure.

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, when the touch screen is really utilized and integrated into gameplay in a dynamic way the genre can really take off. Or maybe it’s more mental…my ipad gaming experience is a few minutes here or there to kill time, I’m not going into it thinking this is going to be lengthy gaming session.

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I think this is a great idea for group block projects, but does it matter so much to have that scant 1/4 inch for your own project if all the seams are consistent. You might not end up with the exact measurements the pattern lists but your blocks would all fit together.

I’ve always had a fondness for Queen Rania. But I have to say that I don’t understand how you could have missed Crownprincess Mary of Denmark. She’s been on the cover of Vogue and was named one of the best dressed people in 2010 by Vanity Fair. Definitely worth googling her!

March 13th 2012 – 11:30pmMy favorite piece of jewelry is ever changing. I design a necklace that I really love and wear it for awhile. Then I will create something else I really like and it becomes my new favorite piece.

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trust,I would observe that almost universally when women complain that “my man won’t talk about his feelings” they are really saying “my man doesn’t tell me what I want to hear.”My wife has long learned to not ask if she’s not prepared to hear what I’m really thinking. (Though she also often asks, “What are thinking besides that.” meaning, besides sex. Of course, that doesn’t stop me from saying something like, “My boss is pissing me off and I’m horny.”

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Thanks for your comment, Mike. I do agree that presuppositions are part and parcel of scholarship. And I think we would agree: To whatever extent we might be swimming in ideology, I don’t think our heads are under the water.

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When I first heard about this book I was excited. I fluctuate between a size 12 and 14 myself and I’m curious to see what patterns are in this book. Then I started seeing comments on blogs that people were offended by the title’s implication that real women are fat. Or that maybe skinny women aren’t real. I guess I just like the idea of patterns being written for “average” sized woman since supposedly the average US woman wears a size 14 and I’m not going to worry about the title.This is my first comment so I want to also say I enjoy your blog and HI!

Man, that sounds like it could be VERY interesting news. I await it with baited breath…! (i don’t even know what that really means, but, you know, it’s like, a saying, right? So I’ll use it, what the hell….)

I love the touch screen. I've been eyeballing e-readers for a while now, and the Kobo is definitely the one for me. I love the touch-screen, I think the color options are fab, and I think the access to the childrens books will come in super handy down the light. Backlight feature? Totally would be awesome for a late night reading fix if I just can't seem to put that book down!

Which also explains recent statements by Bp Fellay, May 11; ” Some things that we taught were errors of the Council were not in fact errors of the Council but misinterpretations of the Council..” That’s what the liberal and “conservative” critics of Traditionalists have always said-and they’ve always been wrong…Fr. Hewko called Bp Fellay June 19th to ask him to clarify ( Bp Fellay had just said that the Archbp talk something wrong ) and was told the statement was ” taken out of context..” 14 hours later Fr. Hewko rcvd his first expulsion notice…

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Did Wednesday’s workout. 3 rds + 30 DUs. Happy that I’m finally getting some consistency with my DUs but unhappy with the extremely light weight I had to use! Gotta get my butt back in there on a regular basis.

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Just a little rant on television watching: Since I moved up to AK 5 years ago I haven't had a TV. Well, let me clarify – I have a TV, but only to watch movies. Every now and then I'll watch something while I'm at the gym and more often than not I'm baffled by what's on. Do people really want to watch Skating with the Stars?? Really?!?! I could feel my brain cells dying during that show!

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You know, I’m sure I’ve heard of a connection between fishermen and knitting before, too.I also love Scandinavian knits – trouble is, it rarely gets cold enough in southern Britain to wear them! We saw some lovely sweaters in Iceland and I was sooo tempted!

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Maybe if bloggers printed some positive things about all this it might make things smoother all the way around.Every cloud has a silver lining.All the doom and gloom is overwhelming at times. We need to start seeing the bright side of events.

Hi,I have a bucket out in the garden and am waiting for it fill with rain so I can start making your soap.I have 2 questions for you if that is ok.Firstly, as I live in the UK and olive oil is imported, can I use this recipe with sunflower or rape seed oil?Finally, if I boil mint leaves or other fragrant plants and flowers in the water before starting the process will it affect the end product?Many thanks for your content,Suzana

I’m thinking early July … perhaps mid-July, though I’m working hard on the revisions. You have time to re-read the others!! I’m glad you enjoyed the excerpt. ‘Intense’ is a great word to describe their relationship; I love how it’s turned out. They’re a perfect match for one another, that’s for sure!

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The main reason the birth stuff is in high gear is once thenew congress is sworn in. and they read the constitution out loud on the floor. Obama will have no defense for the well known honor to be president is a natural born ciitzen only. He will be done

sit in the park and put nuts in your mouth, be very very quiet…………………and very very still—when the squirrel creeps into your mouth to eat the nuts, either snap your mouth shut quickly (which might be difficult if the squirrel is very fat) or else grab him–while he is still on your face eating the nuts………….good luck—-there is squirrel chow in any of the larger pet shops

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Dear Joan,I loved meeting you last summer at ISTE and hopefully we will have a repeat in San Antonio! I loved your last post about adding vivid words to images! I had my students do something similar last year using powerpoint. It’s a fun way to make writing creative and thought provoking.Keep doing all that you do!Your friend,Julie

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I was wondering if you ever considered changing the page layout of your website? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or 2 images. Maybe you could space it out better?

Place something like this in your templatemust I have to put it there ( I m using kubrick theme) if I want to see the slider only on my home page ?:and if I want into a post ?Sorry I dont know !(1 month on wordpress)All the best,Alex

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Doesn’t it seem that every Western state is actively pursuing policies of elect-a-new-people, all under the pretext on non-discrimination? England and Sweden, both in their own ways, are leading the way. That, anyway, seems to be the most important development of Western history since WW2. It’s as though a demonic force had taken over our civilization.- SJ

Aaron, I tend to agree with Lakers8884 about Carmelo. Yes LeBron scores more and shoots a higher percentage, but a lot of that is on fast break dunks and the like, he was so bad from longer range he stopped taking those shots this year. Carmelo’s offensive game is more refined. So to say we should just disregard Lakers8884 is nonsense. Half of what you say is opinion and you present it as matter of fact.