Tuesday, 11 April 2017

Data Data Data

With much of the country focussed on May’s
elections, this is a good time to examine what we do on the doorsteps, what we
need to achieve and how the data we collect should be used to maximum effect.

One of the challenges we face in West
Kent is to convince our more traditional campaigners that canvassing is no
longer about having a detailed discussion on every doorstep with the aim of
converting the misguided into changing their ways. Similarly, to persuade our
newer helpers that canvassing is a simple data gathering exercise and they do
not need detailed knowledge of every aspect of party policy.

With so many Associations being wholly reliant
on volunteers there is a danger that some may lack people with the training and
knowledge now needed to gather and store data and how it should be used to maximise
our chances. This includes:

·How to choose the
targets and why certain groups are important

·The questions to ask
to maximise accurate and useful responses

·The medium used to
ask those questions (postal survey, doorstep, phone or email)

·How to record and
store that information legally and in an accessible format

·How that data can be
used to build future success

And when I refer to “future success” I don’t
just mean electorally, though that is clearly our primary concern, but also in
terms of recruiting members, donors, activists, postal voters and possible even
future LG candidates.

In a previous era when 90% of people
voted either Conservative or Labour a simple “may we count on your support” was
probably sufficient; you were either with us or against us. That is no longer
an option. Voters, even those who identify a Conservative, happily switch their
votes at local, parliamentary, EU and PCC elections, and even at the same election
as anyone who witnesses the bizarre vote splitting in multi-member wards will
testify.

In this climate, we must be smarter and
more accurate. Understanding a voters’ second preference is probably just as
important as recording their first, and the ability to target nuanced GOTV
messages to different groups is now vital in delivering victory in marginal
council wards.

At West Kent Towers we are now working
on our targeted GOTV material for delivery during polling week. For us, the
days of a simple “Don’t forget to vote on
Thursday” are long gone. In our target wards our teams will be delivering
at least seven versions of GOPTV material

·Strong pledges who
always vote

·Weak pledges who
sometimes vote

·Conservative postal
voters

·UKIP voters who would
prefer a Conservative councillor to Labour or LD (Q voters)

·Labour pledges who
prefer a Conservative to Lib Dem or UKIP (T voters)

·LD pledges who prefer
Conservative to Labour or UKIP (M voters)

·Uncanvassed voters in
target mosaic groups

For this to be effective however we must
have the data in the first place, and this requires our doorstep and telephone
teams to have the training and confidence to ask the right questions and enter
the correct codes on the canvass sheets.

Other initiatives we are (or have been)
working on include:

The
time of day people vote: by time-stamping
tellers sheets and recording this data, we can build up a picture of when
people vote (morning, lunchtime, afternoon evening). This allows our teams to
focus GOTV efforts where needed, for example not calling on evening voters in
the morning releasing time to target those supporters who we need to turn out
before dark.

*Variable
paragraph pledge letters: by ensuring we ask
the same questions by post, email, telephone and doorstep we are able to build
a database of the main issues which concern individual voters. This information
is then recorded and used to produce personalised letters from the candidate
dealing specifically with the issues voters have told us concern them.

*Street-specific
newsletters: again, by recording specific issues
which affect roads or groups of residents, we have been able to produce a generic
newsletter with a tailored “lead story and headline” for each road or target
group of residents.

*So far we have only had the resources
to do this for by-elections, but where we have the impact has been very
considerable.

Data is key to almost everything we do.
Knowing which voters will never consider voting Conservative (or who will vote
for whichever party is best placed to defeat us) is just as important as
knowing who we need to target. I will always remember Britain’s longest serving
Council Leader, the late Mark Worrall OBE, telling me “the first step to winning an election is not to do anything which sufficiently
irritates your opponents to motivate them to go out and vote against you.” And
there is nothing more likely to motivate a laissez
faire Labour voter than having a constant stream of Conservative literature
landing on his or her doormat. It is for this reason I don’t like window
posters, street stalls and loud speaker cars; they are indiscriminate in their
audience and thereby reduce our advantage.

And after the dust has settled, good
quality data is the gift that keeps on giving.

·Overlaying the pledge
base with the marked register, you can identify pledges who did not vote and
use peacetime to sign them up for a postal vote.

·Identifying your
strongest and most consistent pledges you have a pool of support in which you
can fish for helpers, activists, members and even future local government
candidates

·Each year you can
target one or two well canvassed wards and send every pledge a book of
Christmas draw tickets; the response rate may only be 5% but the exercise covers
costs and provides an easy gateway to build your donor base for the future.

All of this however relies of good
quality data and that means we have to spend time and effort explaining to our
volunteers why accurate data really matters and providing them with the skills
and knowledge they need to ask the right questions and in the right way.

2 comments:

I wonder what the impact would be if the party was to employ people like you in the "lost" northern cities. I suspect the impact would be massive (over the medium term) and decimate the Labour Party's base.

I just wish the 'we've always done it this way' brigade would read this but it would need to be published in print media for that. I shall continue to argue for it though and get lambasted for my efforts