Pete Hines has done a massive audio interview over at grooving hipsters' site Gaming Steve.
The part of interest to us is near the end of the interview, at 71:30,
where Pete says they won't be showcasing Fallout 3 at E3 this year.

He
also mentions that they plan to make another Elder Scrolls game within
this current console cycle. So that means... well, within 2 or 3 years.
And one can assume they'll have Fallout 3 done before they start
working on the next Elder Scrolls games seriously, just as they're
doing with Fallout 3 waiting for Oblivion to finish development. This
implies to me that Fallout 3 will be out in 2007.