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Sunday, September 14, 2014

The 'swing vote' in WA 42 LD

GIS : City of Bellingham Precincts (2012) and Whatcom County Precincts (2011)

The columns in the long table below the break represent active voters as of 09/10/2014 for the 119 precincts in WA LD 42nd. They represent the queries for (successful) BallotCounted = 1 for the 2014 primary, ge2013, ge2013 and (not successful) BallotCounted = 0 as nprimary, nge2013, nge2012. The last three columns are synthetic:

pdiff (ge2013 - primary) # Voted in GE2013 but not the primary

gediff (ge2013 - ge2012) # Voted in GE2013 but not GE2012

ngediff (nge2013 - nge2012) # Not Voted in GE2013 vs Not Voted GE2012

This data does not include active voters who did not have any ballot status for any of these three elections. (BallotCounted = '' or na). That data is as below, most importantly showing what appears to be 1840 newly active voters since the primary:

The data below the break in the column gediff essentially represents the long term resident swing vote for WA LD 42. In 2012, Cantwell, Obama, and Inslee fared well or won in the 42nd. The turnout was substantially higher for every precinct in the 42 as the negative data (ge2013 - ge2012) indicates. In order for the Democrats to win in WA LD 42nd, they need the swing vote that emerges when OFA and Barack Obama are in town. This data isn't virtual or projected. Each of the 340 active voters in precinct 201 who voted in 2012 but not in 2013 have registration numbers, names and addresses. Sure, some of them might be Republican; but most were not in 2012. If the Democrats want victory in the WA LD 42nd, they are going to have to match their 2012 victory numbers. They are going to have to find a way to get that swing vote to the polls. There are plenty of Democratic votes in the 42nd; they just need reasons to mail in their ballot and a process that makes sure their ballots are counted. Code is here.