Friday, February 27, 2009

One more nice day tomorrow as the two storms will merge with each other off the Pac NW coast & form one big storm and big trough of cold air. Main change tonight is the initial storm has slowed even more.

Subtropical moisture being pulled up ahead of the storm now looks to arrive sometime Sunday Afternoon. At first snow levels will be around 7000 ft., but as the colder trough moves closer on Sunday night the snow levels should begin to drop reaching lake level by Monday morning. Heavy snow will fall into Monday night. 2 feet possible on the mtn. with up to 3 ft. on the crest.

Snow showers should continue into Tuesday before another storm wrapping around the main low off the Pac NW coast taps some subtropical moisture and slams the Sierra with more snow Tuesday night into Wed. This storm will lower snow levels to around 5000 ft., which will up the snow ratios over Tahoe. This storm could dump an additional 1-2+ feet.

Snow should lighten up Wed. night before yet another storm arrives for Thursday/Friday as a final piece of energy comes down the coast. Models this morning were trending this storm more over water which would give the storm lots of moisture to work with. Tonights models are a little more over land with good snow but not as much as there would be with the over water path. Snow levels with this storm should be down near 3000 ft., so snow ratios will be very high. Snow totals from this storm could be significant.

Total liquid over the Sierra over the next week is quite impressive. Snow ratios, snow levels, & exact storm tracks will need to be fine tuned on a daily basis, but either way we are in for a long week of snow. This has the potential to be the snowiest week so far this winter if the storms live up to what the models are showing. They fell a little short of what was shown last storm cycle. It will be interesting to see how close the resorts are to their seasonal snowfall averages by next weekend, and how close we are to having the snowpack be at average.

A much needed break may be in store for a few days starting next weekend, before more storms take aim. BA

6 comments:

BA,I've been reading your posts for a few months and I've enjoyed how you put in laymens terms what is happening around Northstar. We are flying into Sacramento this Sunday around noon. My question is are there any concerns we should be aware of regarding travel, road closures in getting to Northstar?? Can you recommend any websites or local radio stations that will keep us abreast of road conditions and such?Thanks again!

If you're lucky you will be getting to Donner Summit while the snow level is still high. The summit is up near 7300 ft. If you did hit snow it would be short lived as you go over the crest. Roads should be pretty good at noon then get worse going towards the night. They will put up chain controls if the snow starts to accumulate on the roads, which can make for lots of traffic. If you're smart you rented a 4wd car so you don't have to buy chains & install them.

A great website with cameras and that tells you if there is chain controls is magnifeye.com, there are signs with A.M. stations that tell you too, I think 1690.

BA, thanks man for the weather updates, its hard to find someone who knows what their talking about in the way of weather. I am looking at going to alpine on the 7th do you know if there will be freshies or not?

weekend of the 7th models are back & forth on a weak storm. Looks like a little quiet period around then into early in the week before the jet reloads & storms start again. in the trees i'm sure there will still be fresh from the week, & the back country should be open by then.