To many countries, ties with Moscow are just a way to leverage stronger U.S. backing

“Nobody is pushing America out of the Middle East, it’s just pulling out by itself and leaving a vacuum behind,” said Alexey Khlebnikov, a fellow at the Russian International Affairs Council, a state-run think tank. “Russia has no real allies in the region, just partners with which it can do business despite political disagreements on many issues. Russia is not an alternative to them, it’s just a way to diversify their portfolio of relations.”

That diversification is made easier by the fact that President Donald Trump’s administration doesn’t seem to mind Russia’s new prominence in the Middle East.

.. Russia, despite its military abilities and its sophisticated diplomatic and intelligence networks, doesn’t really have the means to project power across the region: its midsize economy is roughly the size of Australia’s or Spain’s.

.. unlike the Soviet Union, which inserted itself in Middle Eastern conflicts as a way to promote the Communist ideology during the Cold War confrontation, modern Russia has no alternative social and economic model to spread.

.. Russia—unlike the U.S.—has proved that it backs its allies, no matter how unsavory they may be. By contrast, the U.S. under President Barack Obama embraced the 2011 protests that ousted such longstanding American allies (and autocrats) as President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia.

.. Even many of those Arabs who hold little love for Syria’s Mr. Assad confess admiration for how Mr. Putin didn’t hesitate to use military force to prevent a similar downfall of the Syrian regime.“Egyptians see Putin as someone who’s a statesman that stands by his friends, someone who doesn’t let them down the way the Americans did with Mubarak,

.. “Russia has nothing to deliver,” he said. “The Russians know that our strategic relationship with America is vital and will always be there. I don’t think there is a big future to Egyptian-Russian relations.”

.. countries such as Egypt and Turkey are using Russia—and actual or threatened purchases of Russian weapons—as leverage to improve their negotiating position where it still really matters: in Washington.

.. “But Russia is an imaginary alternative. The optical effect here is much larger than the substance. All these countries understand perfectly well how limited Russia’s influence really is.”