Global macro investing provides unique uncorrelated return opportunities within a diversified portfolio. This blog focuses on current economic and finance issues, changes in the market structure and the hedge fund industry as well as how to be a better disciplined decision-maker in the global macro / managed futures space.

Monday, October 10, 2011

Can the euro make a comeback?

ECB is less hawkish and the finance minsters are starting to develop better policies for the sovereign debt crisis. France and Germany are starting develop plans for shoring up banks hit with bad sovereign debt. There could be the potential for a gain in the euro. This could be a comeback, but it really was not the case that the euro fell that much. In the decade of its existence we have seen a significant increase in value of over fifty percent from lows and about 35 percent since the inception. With all of the EU problems, it hard to argue that we should see a 10-15 gain. A trading range is more likely.

The negatives for the euro are still strong. A recession in the EU is most likely of any major economic regions. The lack of clear fiscal and monetary policy is still present. An improvement in the sovereign debt problem is not same as a solution. There is no euro comeback just a lower chance of a major fall.

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About Me

Mark has over 25 years of market experience on both the buy and sell side of the markets. He was formerly a professor of finance with a focus on futures, options, and speculative markets. He is looking to engage in a dialogue on global economic and finance issues to enhance our understanding of markets.