Intel dismisses ‘x86 tax’, sees no future for ARM or any of its competitors

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Walking cautiously through the automatic revolving door of a swanky, black, shiny, minimalist hotel in London, the first thing I notice about Mike Bell, Intel’s chief of mobile, is that he’s large. Sitting on a chair in the lobby, Bell’s head is framed by his knees. Standing up to shake my hand, he towers over me — and I’m 6’5″.

Mike Bell is in London to support Orange’s release of the Atom-powered (Medfield) San Diego smartphone. As soon as I sit down he thrusts one of the new phones into my hands. It’s a lot lighter and more solid-feeling than I was expecting, with the only problem being that it runs Android 2.3. “Ice Cream Sandwich is coming, though,” Bell says and hands me another San Diego phone, which just so happens to be running ICS.

We immediately start discussing smartphones: Android, iOS, and Windows Phone 8. One of the biggest surprises with x86 Android is the fact that app compatibility seems to be a non-issue. “There are two kinds of Android apps,” Bell says. “Those that use Dalvik, and ones that run natively.” Dalvik is Google’s Java-like virtual machine which many Android apps run inside. Theoretically, as long as Dalvik works on x86, then all of the apps will. “We have a large team working on making sure Dalvik apps work well.” I push the mobile chief on the topic of native apps, and he hums and haws a little. “We have developed some software that translates native apps to x86, and it seems to work well,” he says. Seizing this opening, I ask if it would be possible to build the same kind of translation layer for Windows 8 and Windows RT. In return, I get a shrug, a smile, and a non-answer.

I change tack, mentioning rumors that Windows Phone 8, which will reportedly be refactored from the Windows CE kernel to the Windows 8 kernel, will support x86. “For now, we’re focused on Android. It’s all about producing what our customers want, and right now that’s Android.” What about tablets? “Windows 8 on tablets, Android on smartphones. Right now, I have as many people working on Windows 8 tablets as I have on Android phones. If someone came to us with a compelling business case for x86 Windows Phone 8, we’d go work with Microsoft. But the way for us to succeed is to focus — through close collaboration with Google on Android, and Microsoft on Windows 8.”

“I see no data that supports the claims that ARM is more efficient.”

Sipping my coffee, I think about how to phrase my next question tactfully. Now I’m the one humming and hawing, knowing full well that he’s probably been asked the same question a thousand times by other journalists. I give up and go for the slow ball: “So, the one area that ARM still beats x86 is power consumption.” Thankfully, the Intel bigwig is a friendly giant; he laughs. “For a long time, we were trying to battle hearsay with PowerPoint presentations. The only real way to do it is to build an actual device and say “Look, go measure it yourself.'” The Medfield-powered Xolo X900, which we benchmarked earlier in the year, falls slightly behind in some tests, but pulls ahead in others. Bell continues: “It’s complicated. We’re not the lowest in power consumption, but we’re the lowest in some things. Doing 1080p video we’re a little higher than other phones doing 720p — but those phones can’t do 1080p. Standby time, we’re at the top of the pack. Power-wise, we’re good; performance-wise, we either exceed by a large amount, or we’re roughly the same — and in some of those cases, we consume less power during the benchmarks.”

I mention Qualcomm, and the fact that many of the Medfield benchmarks floating around the internet were measured before the arrival of the Snapdragon S4 (Krait) SoC, which is a newer chip built on a smaller process (28nm) than Medfield. “It does beat Medfield on a few benchmarks — which is ironic… because it’s only a few. I’m very happy about that.” His face breaks into huge, huge grin.

Next I ask him about the concept of an x86 power “tax,” a theory that x86, by virtue of being a CISC design and having to support legacy code, is inherently less efficient than ARM. Basically, everything else being equal, it is theorized that an x86 chip would consume more power than ARM. “There is nothing in the instruction set that is more or less energy efficient than any other instruction set,” Bell says, putting the decades-old theory to rest. “It’s all about the implementation and the process technology; whether you target power, or speed, or both.” Here he’s referring to the fact that semiconductor manufacturers, such as Intel or TSMC, might have multiple processes; one that produces high-speed 28nm transistors, one that produces low-power transistors, and so on. “I see no data that supports the claims that ARM is more efficient.”

“It also important to remember that Intel has the benefit of 30 years of experience. The core we have is simply smarter [than the ARM competition]. We’re taking everything we learnt building desktop and laptop cores over the years, and putting the secret sauce into Saltwell and Silvermont.” Saltwell is the 32nm CPU core in Medfield, and Silvermont is the re-architected 22nm CPU core in Medfield’s 2013 successor, Merrifield. “The nice thing about being a company that does end-to-end — everything from CPU core design to fab — means that we can do a feedback loop. I can make a change to the process technology, and know what happens from a power consumption perspective.”

Moving in for the kill, I finally ask the question I’ve been gagging to ask: Where does this leave ARM, ARM’s licensees (Qualcomm, Samsung, Texas Instruments, Nvidia), and the foundries? If Medfield is already competitive on power consumption and processing power, and Intel has such a dominating technological lead, where does ARM go from here? “I think,” Bell begins slowly, picking his words carefully, “Moving forward, it will be difficult for anyone who doesn’t have an end-to-end capability to keep up with us. I took it for granted before I joined Intel, but this really is rocket science. When you see people working on 9nm — I see the guys in their bunny suits, doing the mask generation for the chips — you realize this is probably one of the most difficult industries I’ve ever seen. There are very few companies on Earth who have the capabilities we’ve talked about, and going forward I don’t think anyone will be able to match us.”

“There are few things in life that you can’t buy into — and I honestly believe this is one of them.”

“We will not lose a design win on price.”

With power and performance finally behind us, and my cappuccino drained, we move onto another sensitive topic: price. Historically, Chipzilla has enjoyed massive profit margins (in the 30% range), while ARM chip makers have slugged it out in the 5-10% profit commodity market. For years, pundits have said that Intel can’t possibly compete in the smartphone market because ARM chips are too cheap and margins too small. “As my boss Paul [Otellini] says, we will not lose a design win on price. We’re not telling people what our pricing is, but it’s not a consideration that we think people will worry about,” Bell begins.

“When you think about it, the price of the SoC is such a small part of total price of these phones. People ask us ‘Can you be price competitive?’ and, well, it depends on what you wrap around it.” Here, Bell is talking about the fact that the Xolo X900 and Orange San Diego (which is virtually the same phone), both powered by Intel’s Medfield SoC, can be bought SIM-free for around $400 — while ARM-powered phones like the iPhone 4S, Galaxy Nexus, or Galaxy S3 usually drop into the market at the $600+ price point. In this case, even if there’s a few-dollar difference between the x86 and ARM SoC, it’s the huge touchscreen (or Apple premium) that actually defines the market price.

Bell never actually says that Intel will match ARM on price, though. Instead, he deflects my question and launches into a monologue that sounds fairly well rehearsed. “What we’re trying to do is produce something that has more value than just a large screen. By building in 1080p and HDMI [into Medfield], by building in a camera that can take five full-resolution photos in a second — we’re building in features that are going to set our chips apart, that no one else can touch. “We’re trying to make the most compelling products on the market — we think we’re going to build the most compelling products on Earth.”

I begin to wonder what this means for Apple, who has historically prided itself on having premium feature sets. Apple famously switched from the Power CPU architecture to Intel x86 when Power simply couldn’t offer the performance or features that Cupertino required. Will there come a time when Intel makes mobile chips for Apple, much like Samsung makes the ARM chips in the iPhone and iPad? Will iOS go x86? “I don’t talk about specific customers — but, as we’ve already discussed, I think our roadmap and products are compelling enough that everyone is going to have to take a look [at working with us],” Bell says. But you wouldn’t be against designing or helping Apple create an x86 SoC? “For a big enough customer, we would work together with them to make specific changes to our products — we would be crazy not to.”

“You see examples of companies recently that haven’t kept innovating, and they’ve got into trouble.”

There’s a lull in the conversation and I look down at the Orange San Diego. I realize I’ve been toying with it, without realizing, for the last 30 minutes. The phone feels good; surprisingly solid, with a lot less flex than the plastic Android phones I’m used to handling. It feels lighter than the Xolo X900, too. “We used aluminum for the frame. Orange wanted some changes made — so we went back to the drawing board to make the phone a little lighter, more balanced.” So Intel designs devices now? “Well, we’ve had a white box PC business for years, so it’s kind of along the lines of that — but frankly, these devices are more integrated, more specialized, so I’ve put together a really skilled device engineering team. We’re somewhat new, then, but the people who designed [the San Diego] have definitely done it before.” Perhaps it isn’t a coincidence that prior to joining Intel, Mike Bell worked on the iPhone at Apple — and that the San Diego, with its aluminium band and rounded corners, looks mighty familiar.

Is there a plan to continue building these reference devices? “For every chipset, we’re going to do what we call an ‘iconic’ design, to really showcase what [the new SoC] can do. These designs will be available to anyone who wants to build a device based on our chipsets — it gets them 90% of the way there. Showing them best practices has to help them get to market faster.” This is starting to sound like a very well-thought-out plan for thrusting x86 into the mobile market with as little resistance from carriers as possible. What about Clover Trail, the dual-core version of Medfield that will debut in Windows 8 tablets? “Yes. There is a reference design for a Windows 8-based Clover Trail tablet; it’s pretty nice. We’ve actually brought in some in-house ID [industrial design] talent to make our references designs look even better in the future.” And a 22nm Silvermont smartphone? “Yes.”

By this point my coffee cup has been empty for 15 minutes, and despite my repeated eyeballing of the waitress it seems I’m not going to get a refill. On cue, an Intel PR manager checks her watch, leans in, and whispers something in Bell’s ear. I take the hint and start packing away my stuff; I try to sneak the Medfield-powered Ice Cream Sandwich phone in my pocket, but the PR manager stops me. I shake the Santa Clara giant’s hand and thank him for the interview. “Just one last question,” I begin. “The last few years have been incredibly strong for Intel.” — “Yes, yes, it’s almost as if we planned it that way,” Bell interjects with a smile. “Do you ever worry that you might pull so far ahead that you’ll grow complacent and fail to capitalize on the advantage?”

“We need to keep moving — that’s what I keep telling people. What we’re showing is really, really good — in general, across the board, phones, tablets, ultrabooks — but we’re not resting on our laurels. We’re worrying about what’s next, what’s after that, and what’s after that. You see examples of companies recently that haven’t kept innovating, and they’ve got into trouble.” Bell is almost certainly talking about AMD, though he refuses to name names.

“You don’t think that will happen to Intel?” I ask.

“No, because we’re smart enough to not just sit there. We have these people that just really like what they do, and they’re really very good at it. Being able to accelerate, so we’re doing new stuff every year instead of two, is huge. The investment is really big, but the payoff will be larger.”

I nod and thank him again before turning on my heel and heading out into the London rain in search of a cup of coffee.

Sebastian, how about Android on x86 Tablets…anything at all from Mike Bell?

http://www.mrseb.co.uk/ Sebastian Anthony

He was pretty vehement about Android on smartphones, and building what its customers (i.e. OEMs/carriers) want. I didn’t specifically ask about x86 Android tablets, but I think he would’ve mentioned it if that was the case.

ssimo

Thanks!

some_guy_said

That’s an interesting idea. There’s definitely a bigger range of processors available, with a smaller need for emphasis on power efficiency.

I like how Sebastian admits that he thought about bogarting the phone like gizmodo did with the iphone 4.

http://www.mrseb.co.uk/ Sebastian Anthony

The original draft of the story actually included a reference to Gizmodo at that point… but I deleted it :P

symbolset

Sigh. Still all about the gadget, not a word about how it impacts the people who use it. They still don’t get it.

Glad to see them with Android on phones. I, too would like to see an x86 Android tablet. Have no interest whatever in a Windows tablet.

Mike F

Free refills are not an expected thing in England.

http://www.mrseb.co.uk/ Sebastian Anthony

Ha, I can see how that would be misconstrued. Wasn’t what I meant. I’m English, btw!

Marc Guillot

Better for them not being true. If not, it’s time to antitrust authorities create sever Baby Intels.

David_de_Jong

It’s interesting that he worked on the iPhone with Intels phone resembling Apples design and Intel is now getting into the design business. They already seem to have used the AirBook as the inspiration for their UltraBook concept and specifications.
Intel looks like it’s becoming the hardware equivalent of Googles Android, by providing a complete hardware fabrication for the vendors to OEM and rebadge.

There is little different between CISC and RISC nowaday. Any x86 cpu now has a RISC core. So a x86 cpu is just a RISC with a decoder infront.
@Jong Intel is in hardware and software business(and so does Apple). in the 80s,90s: Gates (MS) convinced Intel to leave the software business entirely to MS. They have to get back in. JVM takes toll on programs. Compiled codes (native codes) have the speed advantage (user responsiveness). Intel has to port Android to x86 and make sure it works flawlessly.

el duderino

The dynamic compilation by a very ugly, multistate instruction decoder of a register-poor architecture like x86 into RISC is not free; you aren’t getting that heat back. ultimately, a transistor switch=power=heat; x86 has to burn more heat to move the same payload. pretty much the definition of less efficiency.

S4E

Win8 tablets but no single person working on matching Win8 phone? That’s one is the example of being dumb.

http://twitter.com/SoftwareWorlds SoftwareWorld

If ARM has no future then why has Microsoft come out with a Windows 8 RT ?

Byron Tsigaras

Because it has a present……

m0r1arty

I like your style of personal interviewing – very reminiscent of Deckard from Blade Runner ;)

Let’s hope you keep that up!

Joel Hruska

I’m pretty sure Seb is not a replicant. His beard, however…

http://www.mrseb.co.uk/ Sebastian Anthony

Previous girlfriends have actually commented on my lack of empathy… so who knows…!

http://profile.yahoo.com/YHWSULSVIEW7HZ6IAB6DJCPZFU Hung

Did you see his eyes dilated when he said: “We think we’re going to build the most compelling products on Earth.” He thinks he is of Rachel’s generation but unfortunately he belongs to a previous generation which time is running out for them. They will not feel any pain as they die in the London downpour. But then again who dies?

Keep indulging us!

http://www.mrseb.co.uk/ Sebastian Anthony

I think I miss the relevant knowledge of popular culture to understand your comment… darn :P

el duderino

Not knowing ‘Blade Runner’ is what we Germans call a Bildungsluecke. Your life would be enriched by fixing it. :->

NightAngel79

Really great article! Looking forward to see what Intel can do to make my smartphone even better.

FantoRand

Now why didnt i ever think of that? lol.
Anon-Browser.tk

Fritzdadolt

In my experiences on the Continent free refills of latte or coffee are not expected in any country. . My thoughts on the use of the ARM processors are that they are the wave of the future.. Intelzilla will never admit that and this article proves this. Power consumption is what makes the ARM platform a winner as longer battery life is what sells a product

Anonymous Person

You didn’t really read the article did you as it discusses power consumption and how there are trade offs and at least so far in their testing(I read this as PR) it has performed on par with many of the comparable ARM chips although as with any systems it does better in some areas worse in others. Overall you can’t really comment on power consumption until devices actually hit the market and can be rigorously put through the wringer. Historically yes ARM has done better in the mobile market due to power consumption, however Intel has never and I repeat never seriously tried before now to enter the mobile market. So to say ARM will remain on top is foolhardy at best.

actionjksn

I want an X86 Windows phone and tablet. But I’m not an early adopter in fact I’m pretty much a late adopter. I will probably wait for second or third gen from the one their coming out with. I just like to watch my money to much to join the bleeding edge crowd. But Intel is really on it and they have so many really really smart scientists and engineers, and manufacturing and development equipment. I think they really can make these low power devices work. I think the biggest problem is not really the X86 instruction set. The big hurdle that they need to overcome is creating some graphics that are on par with their CPU technology. They are going to have to either make big enough gains with the technology that they’re working with or buy a company that has some patents that they can work with to make an outstanding GPU. For both the bigger devices and the the small mobile stuff.
But like another poster said they are just now making their first really serious attempt at a low power processor technology. The Atom chips that they first came out with for the netbooks I think was just something they just threw together just to get out a somewhat power efficient processor to put in a cheap little netbook. Now they’re throwing some serious resources at it. I admit I’m an Intel fan boy but not because I think they are nice people. In fact I think they’re a pretty cutthroat company. I only like them because they put an obscene amount of R&D into their products to make the best and most powerful stuff. And the only reason AMD comes off as a bunch of nicer guys is because they are just not in a position to be as ruthless as Intel. The struggling company always seems like they are a nicer bunch of people. Look at Apple after they got big and successful.

efex 172

Hmm… A chip company that does everything for you plus customisation and delivered hardware and future proof on the talk of 9nm or buy a design, ask someone else to modify it for your device then go to someone else again to make it…with hopefully right lead times…

If you were a company which would you think was the least hassle

BrianFruman

Great interview. I guess I have always been an Intel person. I have as a developer hated ARM. It required building a lot of client side software with native entension. In short we need the same browsers features that run in desktops to run on mobile. Then we can focus on just layout issues.

Cool head

Amd has gotten itself into trouble, but i would not say from lack of innovation. AMD’s troubles have come from poor management and marketing which has shot them multiple times, in the foot. The APU infact, has huge potential. Considering it can take advantage of both CPU and GPU advantages on the same die. even if it doesn’t provide a performance boost in numerous functions, it certainly will save power

i just like the writer deliver this article with a style. The article itself is vibrant. thanks for this.

rodrigopiovezan

Iconic interview, very well conducted. Though I’m really late for reading it just now (got interested due to the recently released Asus ZenFones), I can’t help but look for what the ARM folks think of all that.

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