Looks like the protesters won't back down as they would have already so that seems to leave a simple choice of extreme brutality to crush it from the Govt or else Mubarak steps down.

Which one I don't think is possible to say.

Anyone else see any other possibilities? What do you reckon yourself Hands?

I don't know either, but my money would be on extreme brutality but in a limited enough way that they don't have to kill thousands. Rounding people up over an extended period, particularily the next few months whilst promising a more progressive regime with a few brought in to "talks", that will go nowhere, from the demonstrators ranks.

"Islam is as dangerous in a man as rabies in a dog"~ Sir Winston Churchill. We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.

The word Egypt suddenly became a sensitive word on the Internet in China Friday. The word was blocked on all the main search engines in China, including the popular micro-blogging site, Sina.

Some reports say the ban was lifted sometime Saturday. But an AP report said searchers on Sina typing in Egypt on Friday were greeted with a message saying, According to relevant laws, regulations and policies, the search results are not shown.

無心The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey

Seg, or anybody else, what's your sense of what's going to happen in the coming days?

Quote:

Originally Posted by segovius

Personally I don't know....is very difficult to see.
Looks like the protesters won't back down as they would have already so that seems to leave a simple choice of extreme brutality to crush it from the Govt or else Mubarak steps down.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hands Sandon

I don't know either, but my money would be on extreme brutality but in a limited enough way that they don't have to kill thousands. Rounding people up over an extended period, particularily the next few months whilst promising a more progressive regime with a few brought in to "talks", that will go nowhere, from the demonstrators ranks.

(Reuters) - President Hosni Mubarak, clinging on despite unprecedented demands for an end to his 30-year rule, met on Sunday with the military which is seen as holding the key to Egypt's future while in Cairo, protesters defied a curfew.

無心The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey

I don't know either, but my money would be on extreme brutality but in a limited enough way that they don't have to kill thousands. Rounding people up over an extended period for the next few months whilst promising a more progressive regime with a few brought in to "talks", that will go nowhere, from the demonstrators ranks.

Yes, that could happen too. I think the joker though is the situation in other Arab States.

Seems there is some unrest occurring now in Jordan - which is a pretty mild regime compared to Egypt but is another US ally....

Significantly this involves the Muslim Brotherhood who seem most likely to take power in Egypt in any free election.

If other nearby countries get in on the act then a whole reform movement could happen across the region.

I don't think that's the problem...the time is right for that and probably it will happen - the problem is the nature of the new regimes: I can't see any that would be that acceptable:

1) US puppet driven (ugh)

2) Hardline Sunni Islamist (not so good)

3) Shi'i (not at all likely)

4) Saudi backed (possible and horrendous)

5) ?

This is the problem....the people are driving this rather than any one group so there's really nothing to replace the existing rulers. In some ways it might be a case of 'better the devil you know' but it's too late now...

What is Faith? When your good deed pleases you and your evil deed grieves you, you are a believer. What is Sin? When a thing disturbs the peace of your heart, give it up - Prophet Muhammad

Just been listening to a commentator on the crisis and he brought up a point that has not been mentioned yet and which I think will have an impact: more than one third of the world's oil is transported through the Suez canal and in his opinion, if the Egyptian protests were to continue for another week this would possibly be affected and would lead to higher petrol prices worldwide which in turn - given other factors - may well lead to more dissent in other regions.

What is Faith? When your good deed pleases you and your evil deed grieves you, you are a believer. What is Sin? When a thing disturbs the peace of your heart, give it up - Prophet Muhammad

Just been listening to a commentator on the crisis and he brought up a point that has not been mentioned yet and which I think will have an impact: more than one third of the world's oil is transported through the Suez canal and in his opinion, if the Egyptian protests were to continue for another week this would possibly be affected and would lead to higher petrol prices worldwide which in turn - given other factors - may well lead to more dissent in other regions.

That sounds very promising indeed. Let's hope Mubarack's plans get turned upside down and that gateway gets shutdown for a while. It would be great to see $200 plus a barrel or even more. If this can spread to interupt the flow of oil in other countries too the push for green tech, even in the US will get a nice boost. Fingers crossed!

"Islam is as dangerous in a man as rabies in a dog"~ Sir Winston Churchill. We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.

That sounds very promising indeed. Let's hope Mubarack's plans get turned upside down and that gateway gets shutdown for a while. It would be great to see $200 plus a barrel or even more. If this can spread to interupt the flow of oil in other countries too the push for green tech, even in the US will get a nice boost. Fingers crossed!

Oh my God. I can't believe you're wishing for this. Only someone who is evil would wish for such a thing. Do you have any idea whatsoever what this would do to the economy and, especially to the poor of the world if this happens?

Significantly this involves the Muslim Brotherhood who seem most likely to take power in Egypt in any free election.

If other nearby countries get in on the act then a whole reform movement could happen across the region.

I don't think that's the problem...the time is right for that and probably it will happen - the problem is the nature of the new regimes: I can't see any that would be that acceptable:

1) US puppet driven (ugh)

2) Hardline Sunni Islamist (not so good)

3) Shi'i (not at all likely)

4) Saudi backed (possible and horrendous)

5) ?

This is the problem....the people are driving this rather than any one group so there's really nothing to replace the existing rulers. In some ways it might be a case of 'better the devil you know' but it's too late now...

5? How about a parliamentary style government? (....with real elections, verifiable paper ballots and no voting machines of course). Could the people of Egypt deal with this? Why not? Such has existed in the past in a number of mid east nations, for example in Iran under Dr. Mossadegh in the 1950s. Unfortunately for Iran and the entire middle east, the US was unable to deal with *that* in a civilized fashion, so it was overthrown and a puppet thug was installed. Could the US deal with true Egyptian (or other Middle Eastern) democracy, on the terms of the PEOPLE of those nations, rather than merely a phony version (such as Iraq and Afghanistan), which only serves to further any US empire-building/foreign policy aims, and corporate/vested interests of course?

How about South American and nations (Argentina, Chile etc etc etc), which had a ghastly time in the 1970s? Under US supported fascist dictators and juntas, which embraced the neoliberal Milton Friedman "Chicago School" model (in return for favors of course)... economic disaster and misery resulted for 95% of the people there. Dissidents were jailed by the hundreds of thousands, many more were "disappeared", executed, tortured, and their land and property ... gone. After so much punishment, South America finally woke up and said ENOUGH! The autocrats, juntas, thugs and brutes fell like so many dominoes. Now, most of South America (barring the notorious Colombia) is under real democracy, with elected leaders. Self determination overcame violent oppression.

Is there hope for the Middle East? Can democracy and Islam co-exist? Why ever not? If the mid east people were allowed self determination without being under external heavy manners (read "carpet of bombs"), the Mid East might (might) manage a parallel of what has happened recently in many South American nations. (Obviously the two sets of cultures and prevailing faiths have many differences, but we're dealing with human beings here... and true proportional representative democracy can work anywhere, given a chance). But, yet again, could the US handle it, properly, knowing that a large chunk of the material whiuch runs the US infrastructure lies underneath *their* sand? Islam is a faith, whereas democracy is a method allowing the people to be represented in the way the nation is run, in practical, rather than spiritual terms. I am sure the Middle Eastern people. in general, can see the difference., and are quite capable of embracing it.

There is the $multi TRILLION issue.

"We've never made the case, or argued the case that somehow Osama bin Laden was directly involved in 9/11. That evidence has never been forthcoming". VP Cheney, 3/29/2006. Interview by Tony Snow

Oh my God. I can't believe you're wishing for this. Only someone who is evil would wish for such a thing. Do you have any idea whatsoever what this would do to the economy and, especially to the poor of the world if this happens?

Yes I'm very aware how this would help them and how very important it is to the billions of peoples lives who live in and / or are supplied with food from low ground that will be ruined by salty sea water as the oceans rise and the billions who rely on the glaciers for fresh water.

"Islam is as dangerous in a man as rabies in a dog"~ Sir Winston Churchill. We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.

5? How about a parliamentary style government? (....with real elections, verifiable paper ballots and no voting machines of course). Could the people of Egypt deal with this? Why not?

Yes...sorry...I should have been more clear. A parliamentary democracy is the ONLY possible outcome of this situation I was taking that for granted.

What I was meaning was the result of those elections.

The people of Egypt aren;t stupid - they know that the US and Israel would never recognize any democratically elected government that they chose if it DID NOT kow-tow to the US and Israel.

That is why Mubarak has held on to power for decades.

Look what happened when people fairly and democratically elected Hamas.

Quote:

Such has existed in the past in a number of mid east nations, for example in Iran under Dr. Mossadegh in the 1950s. Unfortunately for Iran and the entire middle east, the US was unable to deal with *that* in a civilized fashion, so it was overthrown and a puppet thug was installed.

Exactly my point above.... but now people are wiser. So they may not even go the democratic route. They may just install the people they think can walk a tightrope between freedom for the people and freedom FROM the US.

Quote:

Could the US deal with true Egyptian (or other Middle Eastern) democracy

No.

Quote:

....on the terms of the PEOPLE of those nations, rather than merely a phony version (such as Iraq and Afghanistan), which only serves to further any US empire-building/foreign policy aims, and corporate/vested interests of course?

No.

Quote:

Is there hope for the Middle East? Can democracy and Islam co-exist? Why ever not?

Of course.

Actually it always has - the Islamists are in many ways actually on the payroll of the West. Sometimes literally.

Hamas was created by the Israelis for example for exactly the purpose of fomenting dissent but it went rogue. Same with bin Laden and the US. And Saddam. And on and on and on.....

So if you take the Islamists out of the picture then you have just the people - and they are the same as people anywhere.

In short: the reason democracy has not yet worked in the Middle East (and it does not have to be democracy in the full sense: Morocco and Jordan do ok as monarchies) and the reason that Islam has not accepted it is because Israel and the US have not allowed this to happen.

It is the last thing they want. Or else they would have done it.....they have no problem with on-side Salafis and Wahabs like Dubai and Saudi becoming multi-billionaires playgrounds.

Because there is no threat there: all sides are worshipping the same God: money.

Other places in the Middle East they have a different God.

Quote:

If the mid east people were allowed self determination without being under external heavy manners (read "carpet of bombs"), the Mid East might (might) manage a parallel of what has happened recently in many South American nations. (Obviously the two sets of cultures and prevailing faiths have many differences, but we're dealing with human beings here... and true proportional representative democracy can work anywhere, given a chance). But, yet again, could the US handle it, properly, knowing that a large chunk of the material whiuch runs the US infrastructure lies underneath *their* sand? Islam is a faith, whereas democracy is a method allowing the people to be represented in the way the nation is run, in practical, rather than spiritual terms. I am sure the Middle Eastern people. in general, can see the difference., and are quite capable of embracing it.

I don't think the US could handle it.

The only way it's going to work is an inner Islamic revolution (and I believe this is in the post) where youth take power of the inner workings of Islam from reactionary clerics. Kind of like the Jesus Freaks in the 60s....ex-hippies that got into Jesus.

It's happening but not in the Middle East - this is one area where America (I mean American Muslims - and Canadian) hace to lead and show the ME the way. And it is happening.

So I think a dual-revolution is the only thing that can work:

1) Muslims in the ME ousting the corrupt govt and changing the political landscape

2) Muslims in the US and Canada transforming and updating Islam for the 21st century

3) Resulting in a synthesis that will change the whole game and render the WOT, Islamists, Winger-hawks and Islamophobes ll null and void.

It's happening but might take up to 10 years imo but it's started on all levels.

There are some seriously cool things happening in US Islamic society but they will NEVER let you hear of it till it goes mainstream.

Quote:

There is the $multi TRILLION issue.

At least!

What is Faith? When your good deed pleases you and your evil deed grieves you, you are a believer. What is Sin? When a thing disturbs the peace of your heart, give it up - Prophet Muhammad

Yes I'm very aware how this would help them and how very important it is to the billions of peoples lives who live in and / or are supplied with food from low ground that will be ruined by salty sea water as the oceans rise and the billions who rely on the glaciers for fresh water.

You taking the omelet approach to this? Gotta break a few eggs to get there? \

Think of what it is that you are saying. We must do what we can to drive up the cost of petroleum which has many uses far beyond simple fuel for automobiles and other engines and will seriously impact the bottom line of every person in the US. In that it will drive up the cost of everything, including solar panels, wind turbines, computer tech, public transportation, electricity, water, food and anything else that can be purchased at the store. So in effect, those who cannot afford the necessities will be totally unable to in your "wonderful" scenario. Those costs need to be kept down as much as possible to ensure that people do not starve, or go without electricity because the costs were driven beyond their ability to pay. Think it through, your 2 dimensional scenario is not seeing the complete interconnectedness of those circumstances. You sound cruel and conniving without even realizing it.

NoahJ"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi

You taking the omelet approach to this? Gotta break a few eggs to get there? \

Think of what it is that you are saying. We must do what we can to drive up the cost of petroleum which has many uses far beyond simple fuel for automobiles and other engines and will seriously impact the bottom line of every person in the US.

Not just the US...everyone.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoahJ

So in effect, those who cannot afford the necessities will be totally unable to in your "wonderful" scenario. Those costs need to be kept down as much as possible to ensure that people do not starve, or go without electricity because the costs were driven beyond their ability to pay.

Oh my God. I can't believe you're wishing for this. Only someone who is evil would wish for such a thing. Do you have any idea whatsoever what this would do to the economy and, especially to the poor of the world if this happens?

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoahJ

You taking the omelet approach to this? Gotta break a few eggs to get there? \

Think of what it is that you are saying. We must do what we can to drive up the cost of petroleum which has many uses far beyond simple fuel for automobiles and other engines and will seriously impact the bottom line of every person in the US. In that it will drive up the cost of everything, including solar panels, wind turbines, computer tech, public transportation, electricity, water, food and anything else that can be purchased at the store. So in effect, those who cannot afford the necessities will be totally unable to in your "wonderful" scenario. Those costs need to be kept down as much as possible to ensure that people do not starve, or go without electricity because the costs were driven beyond their ability to pay. Think it through, your 2 dimensional scenario is not seeing the complete interconnectedness of those circumstances. You sound cruel and conniving without even realizing it.

There's no doubt that high fuel prices cause misery for some. Most of that hurt is felt by the poor as the price of fuel greatly influences the price of food. I guess in an ideal world those people would get more assistance, especially as the fuel price goes up.

"Islam is as dangerous in a man as rabies in a dog"~ Sir Winston Churchill. We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.

There's no doubt that high fuel prices cause misery for some. Most of that hurt is felt by the poor as the price of fuel greatly influences the price of food. I guess in an ideal world those people would get more assistance, especially as the fuel price goes up.

In an ideal world the price of resources would not go up because the actions of dictators and governments cause them to.

There's no doubt that high fuel prices cause misery for some. Most of that hurt is felt by the poor as the price of fuel greatly influences the price of food. I guess in an ideal world those people would get more assistance, especially as the fuel price goes up.

Misery for those you claim to care more for. Those who have the least amount of power or ability to influence their circumstances... The rich will not feel it except as an annoyance and here you are salivating at the prospect. As the cost of materials rise, as the cost of manufacturing rises, more and more will be sent to China and other nations for building products. Also less will be put into innovations as more people increasingly struggle to simply get by and are unable to buy these new green products you hope this will force to come about...

NoahJ"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi

It's not really about whether people in the West start to suffer some high prices - they get screwed by their Governments to the max that they will tolerate anyway: no more no less.

If they would tolerate $200 at the pump you bet your ass they would be charged it. Western rulers never let it go 'over the line'.

Meanwhile people in Egypt are dying.

Forget your own comforts and support them because you are in the same boat. It's just they know it and the West is so drugged with consumerism there's no chance of going Cold Turkey and sure as hell no-one's going to help anyone kick the habit.

What is Faith? When your good deed pleases you and your evil deed grieves you, you are a believer. What is Sin? When a thing disturbs the peace of your heart, give it up - Prophet Muhammad

Misery for those you claim to care more for. Those who have the least amount of power or ability to influence their circumstances... The rich will not feel it except as an annoyance and here you are salivating at the prospect. As the cost of materials rise, as the cost of manufacturing rises, more and more will be sent to China and other nations for building products. Also less will be put into innovations as more people increasingly struggle to simply get by and are unable to buy these new green products you hope this will force to come about...

Buy a smaller more efficient car like I did, thereby spending less on gas in the UK than I was spending in the US and don't drive when you don't have to. It's amazing how one can cut down on miles driven with a little thought.

The fact is high oil prices will spur people on to save energy that's a no brainer.

This discussion would be better continued in another thread so as not to take too much focus away from the ongoing events in Egypt, so I won't respond further on this here and I hope you'll do the same.

"Islam is as dangerous in a man as rabies in a dog"~ Sir Winston Churchill. We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.

It's not really about whether people in the West start to suffer some high prices - they get screwed by their Governments to the max that they will tolerate anyway: no more no less.

If they would tolerate $200 at the pump you bet your ass they would be charged it. Western rulers never let it go 'over the line'.

Meanwhile people in Egypt are dying.

Forget your own comforts and support them because you are in the same boat. It's just they know it and the West is so drugged with consumerism there's no chance of going Cold Turkey and sure as hell no-one's going to help anyone kick the habit.

I want to be clear about something. The concerned I raised was not merely about my own comforts or even the comforts of those simply in the US. Raising this concern should also not be taken to mean any lack of concern about the terrible events happening in Egypt right now. While I don't condone violence (certainly not initiation of violence...defensive acts of violence are understandable), I am sympathetic to the people of Egypt wanting to kick their "leader" out.

It's not really about whether people in the West start to suffer some high prices - they get screwed by their Governments to the max that they will tolerate anyway: no more no less.

If they would tolerate $200 at the pump you bet your ass they would be charged it. Western rulers never let it go 'over the line'.

Meanwhile people in Egypt are dying.

Forget your own comforts and support them because you are in the same boat. It's just they know it and the West is so drugged with consumerism there's no chance of going Cold Turkey and sure as hell no-one's going to help anyone kick the habit.

You are right, this has gone off topic for this thread. Just could not believe the thoughtlessness I was reading.

NoahJ"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi

The fact is high oil prices will spur people on to save energy that's a no brainer.

Thanks Einstein. Demand curves slope downward. When did you figure that one out?! No one has disputed that this is true. The issue raised was the devastating effect a 120% increase in oil prices (which you seem be not only ok with, but are openly cheering for) would have on a lot of people and their lives and even their ability to stay alive.

From what I've been hearing it's starting to look like two things are happening:

1) Mubarak has adopted a policy of playing for time - essentially 'playing nice' with the protesters who will be left to do their thing (within reason) for days/weeks whatever while behind the scenes discussions are going on between Mubarak and US

2) Clinton's statement of calling for the 'transition to democracy' is being seen as perhaps actually encompassing Mubarak - ie a last chance offer: we'll continue to support you - bring the protesters onside with democratic concessions and transit (over time obviously - perhaps a long period of time) the country to democracy.

Don't think the people will go for it if that's what's going down.

Btw, on another tack, do the American posters here have the sense that Obama is coming out of this looking like a dead duck? Or a lame one at least?

In Europe the perception is he is missing opportunity after opportunity to be a Statesman. People are actually surprised (not me) and the sense is that he is being unmasked and failed utterly to step up to the plate with any from of authority during this crisis.

I think whatever the outcome here for Egypt he is going to suffer some damage on the world stage...just wondered how the feeling was in the US.

What is Faith? When your good deed pleases you and your evil deed grieves you, you are a believer. What is Sin? When a thing disturbs the peace of your heart, give it up - Prophet Muhammad

From what I've been hearing it's starting to look like two things are happening:

1) Mubarak has adopted a policy of playing for time - essentially 'playing nice' with the protesters who will be left to do their thing (within reason) for days/weeks whatever while behind the scenes discussions are going on between Mubarak and US

2) Clinton's statement of calling for the 'transition to democracy' is being seen as perhaps actually encompassing Mubarak - ie a last chance offer: we'll continue to support you - bring the protesters onside with democratic concessions and transit (over time obviously - perhaps a long period of time) the country to democracy.

Don't think the people will go for it if that's what's going down.

Btw, on another tack, do the American posters here have the sense that Obama is coming out of this looking like a dead duck? Or a lame one at least?

In Europe the perception is he is missing opportunity after opportunity to be a Statesman. People are actually surprised (not me) and the sense is that he is being unmasked and failed utterly to step up to the plate with any from of authority during this crisis.

I think whatever the outcome here for Egypt he is going to suffer some damage on the world stage...just wondered how the feeling was in the US.

If your not in the US try listening to c-span, especialy The Washington Journal which is aired daily on c-span (can stream radio or video live) at 1pm in Spain. It has American's from every corner of the US expressing their views on topics of the day. Sometimes it's enlightening and you can probably guess the rest. Link here- http://www.c-span.org/

If Biden's NPR interview a few days ago is anything to go by many Dems will be very disappointed. I personally think Obama should have said "Enough is enough, we will no longer support that torturing bunch of creeps despite the loud voices of our corporations that benefit from it".

"Islam is as dangerous in a man as rabies in a dog"~ Sir Winston Churchill. We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.

You're just trolling. Go troll some other members you don't like then go for some coffee and a smoke. You'll feel better about yourself.

I've got a better idea: I'll answer your question (it is entirely predictable so that won't be hard) for you on the off chance that some other posters than yourself will be able to engage in reasoned debate.

Right. A poster contributed the following:

Quote:

Bashar says it's time for reform.

I guess those open elections and political process in Iraq has wet the beak of the arab street. They need to slake their thirst now.

From the laughing smiley after Bashar we can deduce that they think the fact the Syrian President calling for reform is somehow ironic or laughable.

They then in a further attempt at irony contrast this with the failure of elections in Iraq and mockingly suggest that these are somehow what the'Arab Street' aspires to and as such can be derided.

This is interesting...not as a statement of actuality as it bears no relation to actual facts on the ground nor is it a rational or considered analysis - no, it is more a perfect illustration of what the end-product of assimilating American mass-media reports will inevitably be when the victim is forced to consider areas foreign to the US.

The simple fact is that the people of Egypt are turning against Mubarak largely BECAUSE he follows the US!!!

Just as the elections in Iraq failed BECAUSE they were the end result of US involvement!

And whatever else Bashar al-Asad may be he is reviled by the poster (or more properly those who provide the poster with his opinions) BECAUSE HE IS ANTI US!

So all in all, not really worth the bother was it.

Note to self: next time you meet someone claiming to be Napoleon Bonaparte just say "yes, yes, so honoured to meet you excellency" and bow more intensely than anyone else.

What is Faith? When your good deed pleases you and your evil deed grieves you, you are a believer. What is Sin? When a thing disturbs the peace of your heart, give it up - Prophet Muhammad