18S Top 20 Poll: Revenge Tour Cancelled

Another week of being slaughtered against the spread with my picks. But the faltering of Michigan on Saturday afternoon makes it so worth it. Let me never guess another pick correctly for the rest of eternity if we can witness a Michigan face-planting of epic proportions at least once a year.

Hey, it’s time for conference championship week! Free from Michigan participating, of course.

18 Stripes Top 20 Poll

RANK

TEAM

RECORD

LAST WEEK

1

Alabama

12-0

52-21 W vs. Auburn

2

Clemson

12-0

56-35 W vs. South Carolina

3

Notre Dame

12-0

24-17 W vs. USC

4

Georgia (+1)

11-1

45-21 W vs. Georgia Tech

5

Oklahoma (+1)

11-1

59-56 W vs. West Virginia

6

Ohio State (+3)

11-1

62-39 W vs. Michigan

7

UCF

11-0

38-10 W vs. South Florida

8

Michigan (-4)

10-2

62-39 L vs. Ohio State

9

Washington (+3)

9-3

28-15 W vs. Washington St.

10

Texas (+3)

9-3

24-17 W vs. Kansas

11

Washington St. (-3)

10-2

28-15 L vs. Washington

12

Florida (+4)

9-3

41-14 W vs. FSU

13

LSU (-3)

9-3

74-72 L vs. Texas A&M

14

West Virginia (-3)

9-3

59-56 L vs. Oklahoma

15

Penn State (-1)

9-3

38-3 W vs. Maryland

16

Kentucky (+1)

9-3

56-10 W vs. Louisville

17

Boise State (+1)

10-2

33-24 W vs. Utah State

18

Utah (+1)

9-3

35-27 W vs. BYU

19

Miss State (+1)

8-4

35-3 W vs. Ole Miss

20

Syracuse (NR)

9-3

42-21 W vs. Boston College

Out: Utah State

In: Syracuse

Five teams within our Top 20 from last week lost in this last round. However, only Utah State falls out of the rankings following a loss to Boise State. Each of Michigan, Washington State, LSU, and West Virginia lost in varying degrees of pain but each remain alive for post-season glory in the form of major bowl appearances.

Welcome back to the rankings, Syracuse! They took care of business against Boston College (somehow Eric Dungey played!??) and should line up against a very favorable opponent in a bowl game for the chance at 10 wins. The Dino Babers hype train is back!

The Year of Minimal 2-Loss Power 5 Teams continues to roll forward. Michigan and Washington State both lost to join the club, only to see LSU and West Virginia suffer their defeats to remove themselves from membership. It’s been a weird year.

Here are the bowl projections if all of the favorites win during conference title week:

Bowl Game Projections

It’s my feeling Oklahoma is in the playoff if they win. If the Sooners lose and Ohio State wins, the Buckeyes are in the playoff. If both lose you could be looking at a mess between Georgia or Michigan (neither winning their conference, both coming off losses in their last game) or a Milton-less UCF for the 4th seed.

It’s possible LSU’s epic 7-overtime loss could screw them out of a major bowl. If Oklahoma makes it to the playoff another Big 12 team will be needed for the Sugar Bowl and that could essentially shut LSU out. Although, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the committee drop Washington State a lot further than I have which could open the door for the Bayou Bengals.

The G5 slot looks to be either UCF or Boise State and if both lose it’ll probably still be UCF anyway.

Week 14 Games to Watch

Pac-12 Championship
Santa Clara, CaliforniaWashington (-5) vs. Utah

Damn it, Pac-12 can you not do better than this? Witnessing Washington State win a league title would’ve been fun but of course the Cougars can’t have things quite that nice. This has the look of Washington basically backing into a Pac-12 title in the least inspirational way possible. As the President of the Chris Petersen Fan Club I do have to point out that a second conference title at Washington is a pretty big deal given where that program was before he arrived. Huskies win 22-13.

Big 12 Championship
Arlington, TexasTexas (+7.5) vs. Oklahoma

I feel like this line is a bit too large with Oklahoma’s defensive struggles but the rematch factor is so heavily in favor of the Sooners, especially since Texas really hasn’t been that impressive this season. I’ll take OU in a close win that sees Kyler Murray picking up some Heisman votes along the way. Sooners win 38-34.

AAC Championship
Orlando, FloridaMemphis (+3.5) vs. UCF

I’m not sure what we will see out of UCF after McKenzie Milton got Willis McGahee’d but they did respond pretty well against South Florida. Is it possible they play with a ton of emotion without their leader? Or, will the potent Memphis ground game run away with it? Tigers win 32-30.

SEC Championship
Atlanta, GeorgiaAlabama (-13) vs. Georgia

I mean, if we are going to criticize Alabama for their lack of strength in their schedule we also have to realize they have to beat 3 straight Top 5 teams to win a title. The playoffs are kind of awesome when you look at it that way. This game should be pretty close–Georgia has most definitely been waiting in the weeds as a really good team–it’s just you never know when Tua & Co. are going to drop 3 touchdowns on you within 7 minutes of game time. Crimson Tide win 34-21.

Mountain West Championship
Boise, IdahoFresno State (+2.5) vs. Boise State

This is a huge matchup for Boise State to try and sneak into a major bowl game. It may be unlikely with them sitting ~10 spots behind UCF before this weekend but you never know. We’ve seen Boise win these types of game so many times we’re kind of numb to it all. Broncos win 45-38.

Well, the ACC took a big dump this year. Miami hit the eject button early, Virginia Tech stumbled all over the place and here we are with mediocre Pitt in the league spotlight. I actually think the Panthers will play well and keep it respectable mostly because Clemson knows the margin matters not. Just win. Tigers win 34-17.

Look ahead game for the Buckeyes!?? No, the Ohio State University football team needs to make a huge statement in this game and hope for the best with the playoff committee. I don’t think this means good things for Northwestern. Buckeyes win 37-10.

So in conclusion, the Irish have clearly better wins, clearly stronger SOS and SOR, and currently hold a solid edge against common opponents, although Clemson could tie that up this weekend. This weekend does mean something, it provides a 12th data point for Clemson so that they're comparable to ND, but even a big win this weekend by Clemson and you still have a bit of a sticky argument for them over the Irish when comparing resume wins.

Clemson is scoring 12 more points per game, giving up 3.3 points less per game, doubling up Notre Dame in YPP differential, and 2nd in S&P while ND is 6th. This stuff should matter too.

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5 months ago

juicebox

And this is exactly why conference championship games are a joke as an influencing factor for the playoff. There are 2 games with below a 10 pt spread, and one of those games is Washington vs Utah.

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5 months ago

MikeyB

If Georgia, Oklahoma, and OSU were all to lose, while UCF comes out strong with their backup QB, the committee is going to have a hell of a decision to make. That’s a lot of “ifs” but none of them would be individually shocking. In order, I’d probably rank them:

So basically I’ve got things at a 4% chance of getting really fun! I’d buy the argument that UCF doesn’t even need to dominate, just needs to win, which maybe bumps this up to a 6% chance of happening!

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5 months ago

Clearwall

If OU is the 4 seed, I don’t see how that game is in Dallas. Sure, it’s incrementally closer than Miami, but Dallas is right in the heart of BXII and OU country. I can’t imagine the committee giving the Sooner a HFA in the playoff.