And now for the good news

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Right now, the world seems a terrible place. You wake to the news of
the latest suicide bombing in Iraq or Israel, of genocide in Darfur, of
famine and disease in Africa, of the build-up of nuclear weapons, and,
more recently, of the tragedy of the Indian Ocean tsunami. It is a
bleak picture of wars and terrorism, of devastation wrought by man and
nature, that only seems to be getting worse. You wonder what kind of
legacy this generation is leaving for the next.

It helps to realise that news, by definition, is bad news. There are,
in fact, some grounds for cautious optimism about the state of the
world (for those who want it; some are insulted by the very idea) as
well as reasons to worry.

So, what is going right? In the past few decades, hundreds of millions
of people, mainly in Asia, have been freed from poverty, and continued
economic growth in India and China promises to lift the living standard
of many millions more. The Growing Up Global report notes that
worldwide poverty rates have declined as a percentage of the population
but because of population growth the number of adolescents living in
poverty is the same as it was 10 years ago: 325 million.

But the population explosion is just about over. The global
population will not reach 12 billion, as was thought only a few years
ago. Instead it will climb to about 9 billion by 2050, after which it
is expected to plateau and gradually decline. This still means an extra
3 billion people on the planet. And while the world has the capacity to
feed them - increases in food production in the past 40 or so years
have easily outstripped population growth - our children's generation
will have to cope with the environmental challenges of this much larger
population.

Believe it or not, there are fewer wars. According to a new Human
Security Report published by Oxford University Press, fewer people are
dying as a result of war now than at almost any time since the 1920s.
This century, long-running conflicts in many African countries - in
Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, Angola, Liberia and Burundi - have ended. Most
recently, a peace agreement has been signed to end the war in southern
Sudan that has lasted 21 years and cost about 2 million lives. This
optimistic picture should not hide the fact that in the Darfur region
of Sudan a genocide has been committed and may still be taking place
while the world's attention is concentrated elsewhere.

Democracy is spreading: two-thirds of the world's states are either
democracies or on a path to democracy. Afghanistan is now a democracy,
however frail; democracy has won in Ukraine; the Palestinian elections
have been declared free and fair. The news from Iraq is indeed bad. But
whether the election is postponed - as it should be; it is too
dangerous to hold it this month - an election will be held some time,
and opinion polls show 80 per cent of Iraqis want the democratic
transition to succeed. There is a glimmer of hope in the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with the election of the moderate Mahmoud
Abbas as President of the Palestinian Authority.

It was already intended that 2005 was to be a year for seriously
attacking poverty, with a worldwide campaign to "make poverty history".
Britain, which takes over the presidency of the G8 group of rich
countries this year, will host a summit of G8 leaders in July that will
focus on poverty. Prime Minister Tony Blair has vowed to use the
presidency to focus on Africa and climate change, which are, he says -
along with terrorism and the spread of weapons of mass destruction -
the most serious problems facing the world today.

In September, the UN General Assembly will review progress towards the
Millennium Development Goals. In December, the World Trade Organisation
will meet to discuss ways to liberalise global trade rules to allow
poor countries access to rich country markets - arguably as important
as aid in lifting them out of poverty.

The best reason for optimism might be the extraordinary response to the
tsunami disaster. This has shown there really is such a thing as an
"international community". It has brought a sense that there is one
world that we must all share. If such an international will can be
brought to bear for the victims of the tsunami, it can also be brought
to bear for the victims of poverty and oppression. If that sense of one
humanity can be maintained, there is hope that the world we leave to
the next generation will be based on democracy, freedom and respect for
human rights for all.