Two weeks till midterms, the NEWSWEEK poll shows Republicans in danger of losing a big chunk of their base. And a growing consensus for a bread-and-butter Democratic agenda.

By Marcus Mabry
Newsweek
Updated: 9:52 a.m. CT Oct 21, 2006
Oct. 21, 2006 - If the elections for Congress were held today, according to the new NEWSWEEK poll, 60 percent of white Evangelicals would support the Republican candidate in their district, compared to just 31 percent who would back the Democrat. To the uninitiated, that may sound like heartening news for Republicans in the autumn of their discontent. But if youre a pundit, a pol, or a preacher, you know better. White Evangelicals are a cornerstone of the GOPs base; in 2004, exit polls found Republicans carried white Evangelicals 3 to 1 over Democrats, winning 74 percent of their votes. In turn, Evangelicals carried the GOP to victory. But with a little more than two weeks before the crucial midterms, the Republican base may be cracking.

If something doesnt giveand quickRepublicans will view 2004 as the good ol days. Fifty-five percent of likely voters in the new NEWSWEEK poll say they would vote for the Democrat in their district if the election were held today, versus 37 percent who say they would vote for the Republican. Thats not surprising; the Democrats have been leading in the opinion polls for months. But the new poll suggestsfrom the leanings of bellwether voting blocs to voters prioritiesthat a possible Republican loss could turn into a rout.

Take white Catholics, swing voters who went for President George W. Bush in the 2004 election. This time 44 percent of them plan to vote Democrat versus 42 percent who plan to vote Republican. :alco: Among independents, 44 percent support the Democrat in their district, while 34 percent support the Republican. And voters have more faith in the Democrats to handle almost every major issue presented in the poll, which was conducted on Thursday and Friday nights through phone interviews with 1,000 adults: from Iraq (46 to 34), to the economy (50 to 35), to federal spending (52 to 29), to health care (57 to 24).

But Democrats shouldnt start measuring for the drapes in the Speakers Office just yet. Compared to the NEWSWEEK poll two weeks ago, taken in the aftermath of the Mark Foley Congressional page scandal, the Republicans seem to be closing the issues gapat least on the issues where they have traditionally enjoyed greater voter trust than the Democrats. The Oct. 5 and 6 poll gave Democrats a lead on moral values (42 to 36), a stunning reversal of every previous poll. While Republicans have not retaken their lead on the issue, they have stopped their slide. In the new poll, 41 percent of Americans say they trust the Democrats more on values and 37 percent said they trusted the GOP more.

Evangelical Christians are not going to blame the entire Republican Party for the individual sins of former Rep. Mark Foley.

According to a series of 15 statewide surveys by Rasmussen Reports taken since the Foley resignation, evangelical support for the GOP has actually increased in eight states and dropped in seven.

The New York Post reports that Democrats, who have hoped that the Foley scandal would discourage more conservative voters from voting on Election Day, may be disappointed with regard to turnout among evangelicals.

Rasmussen Reports found that only 15 percent of nearly 15,000 Americans surveyed care about the Foley scandal as a voting issue. Nearly 25percent of Democrats surveyed say the Foley affair will motivate them to vote  presumably for Democrats  but only 9 percent of Republicans consider the issue a motivator.

While 39 percent of those polled believe the GOP mishandled the Foley news, 22 percent believe the Democrats would have done even worse.

Largely conservative evangelical Christian voters  a key constituent base among Republicans  are counted on to vote for the GOP in several battleground states and contests during the midterm elections. The Post writes that "their role could prove crucial in the hotly contested House and Senate showdowns in the red states of Tennessee, Missouri, Virginia, Indiana, and Ohio."

Interestingly, Republican Joe Negron, who has been tapped to replace Foley in the election  but not on the ballot  in Florida, has also gained momentum with less than two weeks to go before the vote.

That's the crux of the DNC campaign strategy. Just stay at home and read your Bible.

A Newsweek/MSNBC push poll, Durbin, Obama, Pelosi, and Reid, now THAT's a reassuring picture. I've got to re-read (slowly, of course) the opening paragraph of this story again:

If the elections for Congress were held today, according to the new NEWSWEEK poll, 60 percent of white Evangelicals would support the Republican candidate in their district, compared to just 31 percent who would back the Democrat. To the uninitiated, that may sound like heartening news for Republicans in the autumn of their discontent. But if youre a pundit, a pol, or a preacher, you know better.

Click to expand...

Hope you're a pundit, a pol, or a preacher, so you can tell good news from bad news just like them!

Smacks of elitism, the MSM's getting jittery, those uninitated individuals can do that sometimes. Last thing, this:

"How do you get 7 of these"...insert picture of an elephant...to move to the left?

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