Reading the title of this post the way Ron Burgundy reads a teleprompter should give a better idea of the starting point of this article,
because in all honesty, I’m not sure if the Orioles should attempt to make
Young their starting left fielder in the 2014 season.After accumulating more than 10 Wins Above
Replacement (according to Fangraphs) from 2010 to 2012, Young easily had the
worst season of his career in 2013 playing mostly as a 4th
outfielder in Oakland, collecting only 375 plate appearances.

Despite the terrible 2013 season, Young will be playing the
2014 season at 30 years old.So while he
may be past his peak, his 2013 numbers aren’t necessarily indicative of his
performance going forward.That’s the
good news.The bad news is that knowing
this, Young will want to re-establish his value in the upcoming season,
preferring to play for a team that will give him playing time as a starter
(such as the Mets, Astros, etc.).With
that in mind, let’s see if the Orioles should pursue Young to fill their starting
left field vacancy for the 2014 season.

Let’s start with the tools.Out of the 5 tools available to a baseball player, Young possesses about
3.5 of them.He has plus speed, defense,
and power.On the other hand, his arm is
ok, and (as you can see by his batting averages above), he can have trouble making
good contact.Young’s inability to hit
enough for him to get to his power is really the main hole in his game.

My initial assumption prior to looking at any data was that
the main reason Young hits so poorly is due to his high strikeout rate.However, after looking closer at the numbers,
Young’s career strikeout rate, while higher than the league average, is only at
22.9%.Since 2007 (when Young became a
major league regular), the league average strikeout rate has been 18.5%.So while it’s higher than average, it’s not
so astronomical that it should be viewed as an issue.Additionally, the Orioles had the 8th
lowest strikeout rate as a team in 2013, so strikeouts were not generally an
overall problem for Baltimore’s offense in 2013.

While his strikeout rate doesn’t help, it seems that the
main reason Young perennially hits for low averages deals with his extremely
high fly ball rate.A high fly ball rate
isn’t necessarily a bad thing for a hitter with Young’s power, especially if he’s
playing most of his games in a ballpark like Camden Yards.But the issue isn’t just his fly balls.The issue is the number of infield fly balls
he hits, which (obviously) have zero chance of ever being home runs.While this is not ideal, Young has succeeded
with a high IFFB% in previous years (over 20% in 2011), but that’s not a
characteristic you generally want in a player.

The fact that Young hits far more fly balls than the average
major leaguer means that his batting average is less dependent on BABIP, and as
one would expect his career BABIP sits at .274 (league average BABIP in 2013
was .297).And although his offensive
production in 2013 was especially bad, some of it may have been driven by a
career low BABIP of .237, despite a line drive rate that was 3% higher than his
career average (his FB% and IFFB% in 2013 was only slightly higher than career levels).

On the plus side, Chris Young provides a good approach at
the plate with plus power.He boasts a
career walk rate of 10%, which is better than every Orioles hitter in 2013
(minimum 300 PA’s), except for Chris Davis.His career ISO of .196 would have been 3rd on the 2013
Orioles, (way) behind Davis and just behind Adam Jones.Young produces a lot of value on the bases
and on defense as well.While he doesn’t
steal a ton of bases (career SB% of 76%), he’s graded out as an above average
baserunner every year of his career (according to Fangraphs).On defense, he has a career UZR/150 of 3.0
(mostly in CF) along with 32 Defensive Runs Saved above average.Ignoring the fact that Young should probably
play centerfield instead of Jones based on his defense, he’ll be a more than
adequate fill-in should Adam Jones get hurt.

But that’s all in the past, and we’re interested in what
Young will produce in 2014.He should be
a relatively cheap signing this offseason.Jim Bowden of ESPN expects Young to receive a 1 year, $5 million
contract, while the Fangraphs audience expects Young to get 2 years and $13.6
million total.I agree more with Bowden
in this case, as I expect Young to prefer a one year contract, so he can
re-establish his value and cash in next offseason.

An easy way to get an idea of what Young may contribute in
2014 season is to take a look at his Steamer projections located at
Fangraphs.

As you can see in the table, I’ve included the 2014 Steamer
projections for Nate McLouth as well, since it has been rumored that the
Orioles would like to re-sign McLouth to play left-field for them again next
season.From an offense and baserunning perspective,
Steamer projects Young and McLouth to be equally productive.However, Young gains extra value from his
superior defensive skills (both UZR/150 and DRS have McLouth as a below average
fielder over his career, and he projects more of the same in 2014).What is interesting is that Young projects to
produce 0.5 wins more than McLouth in 66 fewer plate appearances.Just for fun, I’ve included the average
league production from left field in the 2013 season, and both candidates
basically project to be that “average” player.

So what are we left with?Despite the similarities, we’re left with a few differences that could
sway our decision.The first is Young’s
superior defense, which we’ve already touched on.Next would be each player’s contract expectations.It’s been reported that McLouth is seeking a 2 year agreement (it’s also been reported that this isn't what the Orioles want to give him), while it’s viewed that Young will be likely looking for a one year
contract.Finally, there is each
player’s age, as Young will play the 2014 season at age 30, while McLouth will
do so at 32.

In my mind, all of the differences outlined above show Young
as the better option in left field for the 2014 season.Additionally, with a little positive
regression (i.e., good luck), it’s not improbable that Young could provide an
offensively similar season to the one he produced in 2010.On the other hand, the best-case scenario for
McLouth may very well be a repeat of his production in 2013.

In a perfect world, the Orioles would sign both players,
which would give them a very productive LF platoon (Young has a career wOBA of
.364 against LHP, while McLouth has a career .342 wOBA against RHP).Unfortunately, this is not a perfect world,
as playing time expectations of the players and payroll limitations of the team
make that idea virtually impossible.

Ultimately, the Orioles should roll the dice with Chris Young,
assuming he is willing to play left field.The team will also have to provide Young with the assurance that he’ll
be a starter.And if the Orioles do in
fact attempt to sign him, that may be the real challenge.In a year where he will be looking to
re-establish his market value, playing time, specifically in center field, may
be the most important factor in Chris Young’s decision.

6 comments:

Liam
said...

I'd be reluctant to take on Young for a couple reasons. First, his defense, like his offense, has declined for three years in a row. When we're talking about a 30 year old player who's value is heavily reliant on fielding that's an issue. And with Jones firmly entrenched in center field (like it or not, he's not moving any time soon), Young's defense wouldn't be as valuable.

Second, his offense is mainly fueled by power, not OBP. Considering most of the Orioles' lineup also fits this profile, whoever they sign for left field would ideally be stronger in the OBP department. Young certainly suffered from a low BABIP last year, but his bb% and k% have also been trending the wrong way over the past 3 years.

i agree that Jones is not moving off CF. though i disagree with you on Young's defense. his defensive numbers were down this year (possibly a result from a thigh strain that put him on the DL early in the year), however, a 14.6 and 18.7 UZR/150 in 2011 and 2012 resepctively is pretty good. I don't see why a plus defender in CF would be an even better defender in left.

as for the offense, his BB% has been down, but still just under 10% and would still be among the best on the current O's team, and his K% was very stable from 2010-2012.

his low average CAN make that BB% meaningless in terms of OBP, and admittedly he isn't the perfect solution for the outfield vacancy. however, based on the teams (assumed self-imposed) financial limitations, i think he's a good buy low candidate who could potentially provide a lot of production. he does carry risk though, and i understand why some may want to avoid him.

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