A stunning tornado outbreak of incredible violence has left at least 202 dead across the Eastern U.S.; injuries probably number over a thousand, with 600 injured in the town of Tuscaloosa alone. The tornadoes carved huge swaths of damage, completely flattening large sections of many towns, and damage from the storms is likely to be the greatest in history for any tornado outbreak. Hardest hit was Alabama, with at least 149 dead; at least 36 were killed in neighboring Mississippi. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 160 preliminary reports of tornadoes between 8am EDT yesterday and 8am EDT today. At least 11 of these tornadoes were killer tornadoes; deaths occurred in six states. Damage from some of these storms appeared to be at least EF-4, and it is likely that there were multiple violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes. The death toll makes the April 27 - 28 outbreak the third deadliest tornado outbreak of the past 50 years, behind the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak (315 killed) and the 1965 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak (256 killed.)

The 3-day total of preliminary tornado reports from this outbreak is 278, close to the 323 preliminary tornado reports logged during the massive April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak. That outbreak has 155 confirmed tornadoes so far, making it the largest April tornado outbreak on record. It is unprecedented to have two such massive tornado outbreaks occur so close together. According to a list of tornado outbreaks maintained by Wikipedia, only two other tornado outbreaks have had as many as 150 twisters--the May 2004 outbreak (385), and the May 2003 outbreak (401).

Tornado outbreak winding down todayTornado warnings continue to be issued this morning along the cold front now pushing towards the Atlantic coast, and a tornado was reported at 7:35am EDT in McBee, South Carolina. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a large swath of the coast, from Florida to Vermont, in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather. The high instability and high wind shear that triggered so many killer tornadoes yesterday is gone, and we should see only a few weak tornadoes today. No severe storms are predicted for Friday. Saturday has a slight risk of severe weather over Oklahoma and Texas.

Figure 6. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama yesterday. Fast forward to minute four to see the worst of the storm.

Figure 8. Tornado near Empire, Alabama, moving rapidly down a hill.

Unprecedented flooding predicted on Ohio and Mississippi RiversThis week's storm system, in combination with heavy rains earlier this month, have pushed the Ohio River and Mississippi River to near-record levels near their confluence. The Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois is expected to crest at 60.5 feet on May 1. This would exceed 100-year flood stage, and be the highest flood in history, besting the 59.5' mark of 1937. Heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches have inundated the region over the past few days, and one levee breach at Black River levee near Poplar Bluff, Missouri, has resulted in the evacuation of over 500 homes. Poplar Bluff has received 15.45" of rain since Friday morning. The greatest rain gauge-measured precipitation from the storm occurred in Springdale, Arkansas, where 19.70" inches has fallen since Friday morning.

Record 100+ year flood expected on Mississippi RiverSnow melt from this winter's record snow pack across the Upper Mississippi River has formed a pulse of flood waters that is moving downstream on the Mississippi, and is currently located in Iowa. When this floodwater pulse moves south of Cairo, Illinois over the next two weeks, it will join with the record water flow coming out of the Ohio River, and create the highest flood heights ever recorded on the Mississippi, according to the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service. Along a 400-mile stretch of the Mississippi, from Cairo to Natchez, Mississippi the Mississippi is expected to experience the highest flood heights since records began 100 or more years ago, at 5 of the 10 gauges on the river along this stretch. The records are predicted to begin to fall on May 3 at New Madrid, and progress downstream to Natchez by May 20. Areas that are not protected by levees can expect extensive damage from the flooding, and it is possible that the Army Corps of Engineers will have to intentionally dynamite a levee at Birds Point and New Madrid, Missouri to protect the town of Cairo from flooding.

The Mississippi River at New Madrid, MO, about 40 miles downstream of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, is currently at 44', the 3rd highest flood in history. The river is predicted to crest on Tuesday very near the all-time record height of 48 feet. The NWS warns that at this height, "Large amounts of property damage can be expected. Evacuation of many homes and businesses becomes necessary." Previous record heights at this location:

The timing of the floods crests will depend upon a complex mix a factors, including how much rain falls over the next month, the possible influence of southerly winds holding up the floodwater pulses, the potential opening of flood control structures and reduction of flows from flood control reservoirs, and potential levee failures (no levee has failed on the Lower Mississippi south of the Ohio River junction since 1950, however.) The Mississippi River is expected to crest at 17 feet at New Orleans on May 22, three feet below the top of the levees. This would likely require opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway 28 miles upstream from New Orleans, to relieve pressure on the city's levees. Opening the spillway drains 250,000 cubic feet per second of flow into Lake Pontchartrain.

Helping out tornado victimsFor those who want to lend a helping hand to those impacted by the widespread destruction this month's severe weather has brought, stop by the portlight.org blog.

After Charley, Frances Jeanne and Ivan I saw isolated areas with damage rivaling that of a tornado swath; roofs and structure damaged, tree fall damage, etc, but you're right: tornados cause damage in tightly restricted areas where the damage from a hurricane while much greater in area is generally lighter overall with pockets of worse damage (aside from hurricane spawned tornados)

Hey Flood..As soon as I learn to post the images I have stored in the computer, I will put up the pictures of our houses after the hurricanes...Where the heck ya been.? :)....This GFS model does not hold good news for those of us with flooding problems...Link

The wind destruction from a hurricane rarely looks like the swath of damage we have seen from this tornado outbreak. Andrew is the only example I have seen. There is scattered wind damage, but not whole neighborhoods and/or towns leveled. The pictures we see from hurricane damage are usually from surge. At least that has been my (unfortunate) hands on experience. I saw first hand what the Red River tornado outbreak of 1979 did. Andrew is the only thing I have seen to best that (wind damage).

Was commenting last night that I find it amazing that a tornado can produce in seconds what hours of relentless sea / storm surge cause. I think Andrew is our best comparison because it is the one cat five landfall we have lots of documentation for but which also doesn't have most of the really bad wind damage "covered over" by the surge damage. I'm thinking about the Keys Hurricane as an alternate; the wind did basically do everything in there, but the storm surge would have overlaid most / all of it.

The wind destruction from a hurricane rarely looks like the swath of damage we have seen from this tornado outbreak. Andrew is the only example I have seen. There is scattered wind damage, but not whole neighborhoods and/or towns leveled. The pictures we see from hurricane damage are usually from surge. At least that has been my (unfortunate) hands on experience. I saw first hand what the Red River tornado outbreak of 1979 did. Andrew is the only thing I have seen to best that (wind damage).

After Charley, Frances Jeanne and Ivan I saw isolated areas with damage rivaling that of a tornado swath; roofs and structure damaged, tree fall damage, etc, but you're right: tornados cause damage in tightly restricted areas where the damage from a hurricane while much greater in area is generally lighter overall with pockets of worse damage (aside from hurricane spawned tornados)

Two totally different weather phenomena that produce similar wind damage... this whole idea of "inland hurricanes" is created and perpetuated by uninformed journalists and laymen who compare the two.

If you look at the water vapor images you will see a storm with no similarity to a hurricane other than a large mass of clouds

The wind destruction from a hurricane rarely looks like the swath of damage we have seen from this tornado outbreak. Andrew is the only example I have seen. There is scattered wind damage, but not whole neighborhoods and/or towns leveled. The pictures we see from hurricane damage are usually from surge. At least that has been my (unfortunate) hands on experience. I saw first hand what the Red River tornado outbreak of 1979 did. Andrew is the only thing I have seen to best that (wind damage).

Quoting Patrap:A tornado Super Outbreak is in no way related to a Hurricane.

Period.

Hurricanes,,at Landfall and well inland can and often do Spawn Tornadoes as did Andrew during its second Landfall in La...she spawned a F-4 that killed 4 in Laplace,La.

Not to diminish in any way the amount of incredible destruction an outbreak of violent long-track tornadoes can cause, but a hurricane can damage a much wider swath. Even the record-setting tornadoes affiliated with the Super Outbreak of 1974 directly affected fewer than 100 square miles combined, whereas hurricanes can create very heavy damage over hundreds or thousands of square miles. Camille pretty much wiped clean 68 square miles of Mississippi's Harrison County alone; Andrew left a severe damage footprint covering 300 square miles in just Dade County; and Katrina ravaged roughly 93,000 square miles in total (though, of course, not all of that was severe).

Having said that: I think I prefer the days of warning I get before hurricanes to the minutes--or seconds--a tornado usually affords. On top of that, a hurricane pulls your home apart shingle by shingle, board by board; on the other hand, a tornado simply smashes it to smithereens all at once. The end result may look similar, but that surely doesn't tell the whole story.

Quoting lentampa:Can anyone help me find a good visible satellite water vapor image of the CONUS during the recent outbreak? I have heard others describe this thing as an inland hurricane. Are there any images that would actually fit this description or is that simply not the right comparison at all. My family went through Andrew in Perrine. The damage I am seeing from pictures pretty much shows the same type of damage, only over a much wider scale.

Two totally different weather phenomena that produce similar wind damage... this whole idea of "inland hurricanes" is created and perpetuated by uninformed journalists and laymen who compare the two.

If you look at the water vapor images you will see a storm with no similarity to a hurricane other than a large mass of clouds

Can anyone help me find a good visible satellite water vapor image of the CONUS during the recent outbreak? I have heard others describe this thing as an inland hurricane. Are there any images that would actually fit this description or is that simply not the right comparison at all. My family went through Andrew in Perrine. The damage I am seeing from pictures pretty much shows the same type of damage, only over a much wider scale.

Quoting Neapolitan:Yeah, I do that a lot after disasters; I have to to better help myself understand what's happened. It's easier for me to wrap my mind around it when such a catastrophe is more concrete than just an abstract story in an unknown place on the news. On the same nite: Google Earth--especially where the Street View cameras have been--is amazing.

Quoting emcf30:Nea, sounds like you did what I did, I watched the video on one computer and tracked the movement on google earth on another. You definitely pay a great deal of attention to detail for sure.

Yeah, I do that a lot after disasters; I have to to better help myself understand what's happened. It's easier for me to wrap my mind around it when such a catastrophe is more concrete than just an abstract story in an unknown place on the news. On the same nite: Google Earth--especially where the Street View cameras have been--is amazing.

Quoting emcf30:We were having a conversation on here last night reference the Smithville Tornado. The fire hydrants were sucked out of the ground. Also, there was a subdivision there that had new, well built brick homes that all that is left is the concrete slabs. I along with others were surprised that they rated it yesterday as a EF4. I guess numbers don't mean crap when you lost your family, friends, and every thing else you own.

Bear in mind that "new, well built brick homes" are not masonry structures; they are wood frame with brick facade typically, meaning that they are very susceptible to wind differential and straight line wind. A solid, re-inforced masonry or concrete structure will withstand tremendous pressures that brick veneer on wood framing will not. A decent EF2 will take out a brand new brick-on-wood-frame structure and leave nothing but the slab...

(1)What is the noise in the vehicle that you hear? He cuts it off near the end of the download.

(2)It appears to be 2 separate tornadoes....one passes to his right 3-4 minutes into the download....he then turns his camera back to his left and there is the incredible footage of tornado #2.

The noise I'm not sure of. But as to the rest, it's the same tornado. The video starts with the car in the parking lot on the west side of the University Mall, and with the camera facing west-southwest across McFarland Boulevard (which runs north-south) and the Midtown Village shopping center. The driver at first moves south to a point roughly 1000' feet south of 15th Street (which runs east-west; aka Veterans Memorial Parkway). As the tornado continues moving at about 70 degrees, it passes just to the north of the McFarland/15th Street intersection. The driver shoots video southward for a bit, then turns the car and the camera around and starts heading north through the parking lot. He eventually goes through the drive-thru at the Regions Bank on the southeast corner of the intersection, before heading east for a bit, and is clearly astonished by the destruction on the north side of the street behind the RaceTrac gas station (which awning you see).

Had the storm passed just a hundred yards farther south, both Midtown Village and University Mall would have been destroyed beyond any likely repair.

I think because EF5s are so rare and get hyped so much by the media, it's better to upgrade it after you're 100% sure then to downgrade it. The last thing you want is the media to sensationalize things more than it already has been...

Quoting emcf30:We were having a conversation on here last night reference the Smithville Tornado. The fire hydrants were sucked out of the ground. Also, there was a subdivision there that had new, well built brick homes that all that is left is the concrete slabs. I along with others were surprised that they rated it yesterday as a EF4. I guess numbers don't mean crap when you lost your family, friends, and every thing else you own.

Perhaps by receiving a EF 5 rating people will become more aware of the destruction there, as from what I've heard on the news, it seems to have not as talked about in terms of other damage to other locations. Hopefully they will receive more aid now.

We were having a conversation on here last night reference the Smithville Tornado. The fire hydrants were sucked out of the ground. Also, there was a subdivision there that had new, well built brick homes that all that is left is the concrete slabs. I along with others were surprised that they rated it yesterday as a EF4. I guess numbers don't mean crap when you lost your family, friends, and every thing else you own.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WILL CONTINUE THE ASSESSMENTOF STORM DAMAGE FROM A TRAGICALLY HISTORIC DAY OF TORNADIC ACTIVITYAND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. A NATIONALLYRECOGNIZED STORM DAMAGE EXPERT WILL ASSIST US IN EXAMINING THELOCATIONS OF THE MOST EXTREME DAMAGE TO ENSURE WE PROVIDE THE MOSTACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF THIS EVENT AS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...WEWILL CONTINUE TO REVIEW THE RESULTS OF YESTERDAYS SURVEYS AND WILLPUBLISH INFORMATION AS SOON AS POSSIBLE REGARDING THE SUMTER TOSHELBY COUNTY SUPERCELL TRACKS.

AT THIS TIME...STORM SURVEYS ARE BEING PLANNED FOR THE FOLLOWINGCOUNTIES:

TEAM ONE: JEFFERSON COUNTY EAST OF I-65 TO ST. CLAIR...CALHOUN AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES SUPERCELL TRACK OUTBOUND. REVERSE ORDER PLUS TUSCALOOSA COUNTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT FROM THE MORNING STORMS ON THE RETURN TRACK.

AFTER A REVIEW OF THE DAMAGE PHOTOS TAKEN DURING THURSDAY/S GROUNDSURVEY AND CONSULTATION WITH NATIONAL EXPERTS...THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS UPGRADED THE SMITHVILLE TORNADORATING TO EF-5 DAMAGE. THIS IS THE HIGHEST RATING FOR TORNADODAMAGE AND THE FIRST EF-5 OR F-5 IN MISSISSIPPI SINCE THECANDLESTICK PARK TORNADO NEAR JACKSON ON MARCH 3RD 1966.

In the 7:45 min video posted above what is really creepy is that around the 4:30- 4:45 point it looks like there is a "face" (two eyes and a mouth) in the tornado cloud. Kind of reminds me of 911 and the "face" that people though they saw in the smoke cloud when the towers fell. I guess you can see anything if you *want* to see it, I probably shouldn't give any of the crazies any more ammo. This is tragic enough without me adding a conspiracy slant to it.

AFTER A REVIEW OF THE DAMAGE PHOTOS TAKEN DURING THURSDAY/S GROUNDSURVEY AND CONSULTATION WITH NATIONAL EXPERTS...THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS UPGRADED THE SMITHVILLE TORNADORATING TO EF-5 DAMAGE. THIS IS THE HIGHEST RATING FOR TORNADODAMAGE AND THE FIRST EF-5 OR F-5 IN MISSISSIPPI SINCE THECANDLESTICK PARK TORNADO NEAR JACKSON ON MARCH 3RD 1966.

* COUNTY/COUNTIES: MONROE

* LOCATION/TIME OF EVENT: SMITHVILLE AT 344 PM EDT

* BEGINNING POINT: 34.0517, -88.4236

* ENDING POINT: 34.0731, -88.3814

* RATING: EF-5

* ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 205 MPH

* PATH LENGTH: 2.82 MILES

* MAXIMUM WIDTH: 1/2 MILE

* FATALITIES: 14

* INJURIES: 40

* SUMMARY OF DAMAGES: 18 HOMES DESTROYED...2 BUSINESSES /POST OFFICE AND POLICE STATION/ DESTROYED...8 HOMES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE...7 BUSINESSES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE...44 HOMES WITH MINOR DAMAGE...AND WATER SYSTEM DESTROYED. MOST TREES EITHER SNAPPED OR TWISTED AND DEBARKED. MOST THE HOMES DESTROYED WERE WELL BUILT...TWO STORIES...LESS THAN TEN YEARS OLD AND BOLTED DOWN TO THEIR FOUNDATIONS. AN 1965 CHEVY PICKUP TRUCK PARKED IN FRONT ONE OF THE DESTROYED HOMES HAS NOT BEEN FOUND. ALL APPLIANCES AND PLUMBING FIXTURES IN THE MOST EXTREME DAMAGE PATH SHREDDED OR MISSING.

May need to click through "previous version" of this Link to see this specific one.

AFTER A REVIEW OF THE DAMAGE PHOTOS TAKEN DURING THURSDAY/S GROUNDSURVEY AND CONSULTATION WITH NATIONAL EXPERTS...THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS UPGRADED THE SMITHVILLE TORNADORATING TO EF-5 DAMAGE. THIS IS THE HIGHEST RATING FOR TORNADODAMAGE AND THE FIRST EF-5 OR F-5 IN MISSISSIPPI SINCE THECANDLESTICK PARK TORNADO NEAR JACKSON ON MARCH 3RD 1966.