I am a MA/MBA candidate at the Lauder Institute and the Wharton School of Business. I focus on Russian politics, economics, and demography but also write more generally about Eastern Europe. Please note that all opinions expressed here are mine and mine alone and that I do not speak in an official capacity for Lauder, Wharton, Forbes, or any other organization.
I do my best to inject hard numbers (and flashy Excel charts) into conversations and debates that are too frequently driven by anecdotes. In addition to Forbes I've written for True/Slant, INOSMI, Salon, the National Interest, The Moscow Times, Russia Magazine, the Washington Post, and Quartz.
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Vladimir Putin's Approval Rating Just Hit An All-Time Low

During the height of Russia‘s energy boom, Vladimir Putin‘s poll numbers routinely hovered in the stratosphere. In the fall of 2008, with Putin basking in the glow of victory in a short, easy war with Georgia, with oil at $140 a barrel, and with Russia’s economy chugging along at 5% growth, roughly9 in 10 Russians approved of his performance. 9 in 10! Putin was arguably the single most popular politician in the world, and his position appeared completely unassailable.

The sharp recession of 2009, when Russia’s economy was clobbered by a sudden credit freeze and GDP fell by 7.5%, chopped about 5 points off of Putin’s approval rating, ending a streak of year-over-year increases that had started in 2005. However, it’s not as if Putin suddenly became persona non-grata: even the post-recession reduction in his popularity left it at a still eye-watering 79%, a level that would be the envy of virtually any other politician in the world.

Now it’s not exactly shocking that a recession of the magnitude of Russia’s in 2009 put a dent in Putin’s poll numbers. But what is noteworthy is that when Russia’s economy began growing again in 2010, Putin’s poll numbers began to sink and have continued to do so ever since. While there have been substantial month to month variations, and even periods when the numbers were holding steady, when you look at the data on an annual basis the overall trend is a pretty clear one.

Putin’s approval rating at the moment is still north of 60%, which doesn’t seem (to me at least) to augur well for any sort of imminent revolution. A majority of Russians still support Putin, albeit with noticeably muted enthusiasm, and none of the opposition figures are able to consistently get approval ratings in double digits.

But looking at the data you’re forced to recognize that Putin is in a substantially weaker political position than he was during the height of the boom years, when his excesses seemed to have genuine popular support among Russians. Despite all of the bluster that’s been coming from the Kremlin recently, its domestic position is weaker than at any time since Putin first came to office in 2000. Support from the masses has always been an important component of Putinism, and a great deal of the regime’s ability to “get things done” rested on Putin’s genuinely robust personal approval ratings.

The steady and sustained decrease in Putin’s poll numbers is one reason why I find many of the assaults on “the reset” to be so bemusing. Putin hasn’t been “bolstered” by Obama’s craven appeasement, his popularity has slowly withered and is now lower than it has ever been! Being marginally more cooperative with the Kremlin didn’t do anything to improve its credibility among Russian citizens, they’re more opposition-minded than ever. Please note that I am not suggesting that the reset has caused Putin’s popularity to decrease, domestic Russian political developments explain all of the change, merely noting that they’ve occurred in the same time-frame.

What should America do? Well, many people think that now is the time to strike: attack the beast while it’s wounded! Go after the Kremlin now, because another opportunity like this might not present itself! Personally, I think that such efforts almost always end up backfiring and that an increase in tensions is exactly what the Kremlin would most like to achieve. Without being naive about the immediate prospects for change, which I still think is at least 4-5 years away, I think that we should basically let internal Russian politics play out precisely because those politics seem to be heading in a direction that is ever-more unfavorable for the authorities.

However, regardless of your opinions on what should or shouldn’t happen next, or what America should or shoulnd’t do, the simple fact of the matter is that Putin’s poll numbers are now lower than they have ever been before. 2013 should prove to be a very interesting year

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“What should America do? Well, many people think that now is the time to strike: attack the beast while it’s wounded! Go after the Kremlin now, because another opportunity like this might not present itself! ”

Putin’s approval percentage numbers hit mid sixties and he is a “ wounded beast”? And many people think that?!

You did not mention it was a Levada poll (possibly omitted by design, Levada is seen as a Western tool). The posters here had objection not to your reporting that Putin’s numbers in a dubious and a very questionable poll went down, but to your “logic”, your innuendos and ridiculous hostility to Russia and disrespect for the Russian electorate. Stop insulting everybody’s intelligence.

Mark, to be fair, the implicit assumption that the US has consigned itself to meddling in Russian affairs and that this is the most prudent policy are what seem to be your readers’ main gripes in this case.

The thing we can all take away from this is that even a “skewed” poll puts Putin in a politically enviable position. Lavda polling, even with its US funding, still puts Putin north of 60%. This is something a US president would kill for. Excuse the predictability of my next statement but Barry O does in fact kill for it.

Adomanis, you are not intelligent enough to graduate from a Russian High School and you write about Russian politics? Why? What people like you have to say, other than “Derp”? Does it mean “burp”? Anyway, “burp” is more appropriate description of the kind of low level garbage you put out. At least get off the toilet when you write, the stench is unbearable.

I have some questions about your methodology. Levada is funded by US, you never mentioned that the poll was taken by them in the article itself, which would allow you to gloss over the obvious conflict of interest. You incorrectly stated that it is Putin’s lowest approval rating ever: his rating was lower before his election last year.

You overdramatized a trivial event and you trivialized and dismissed the reasonable questions about objectivity and thoroughness of your article and its statistical data, calling posters names and claiming it amounted to just “killing the messenger” carping.

Levada Center which conducted the poll, the fact Adomanis “conveniently” forgot to mention, has received funding from National Endowment for Democracy, an American organization heavily funded by both major political parties in US, Republicans and Democrats.

It has supported a number of Levada Center projects. Could it be, that Adomanis has not mentioned that it was Levada Center which conducted the poll in order to conceal the fact that the poll is tainted by the conflict of interest? I agree with the post above, that he deliberately overdramatized a very good data for Putin and lied that it was the lowest ever.

As far as I see it, Putin has been in power for very long, and it is natural to see some people wanting change. There might be another component of the people who expect Putin to deliver, and he does not. I personally am very aware of the latter sentiment, because I hear it frequently at home.

That said however, his approval ratings are still above 60%, those are very good ratings. There is nothing to suggest that the disapproval translates into coherent opposition.