The first 4 races of 2013 have been
what we would term 'Flyaways' we use this term as the teams are all
based in Europe but these races are on another continent. When F1
returns in Barcelona it will be off the back of a 3 week break, but
whilst the TV camera's have stopped filming the action, work still
continues in the factories on gaining performance on their rivals.

Barcelona signals a pivotal point in
the season as it allows the factory to provide the race team with a
raft of upgrades that would be a headache in terms of logistics to
send to a 'Flyaway' race. That's not to say that teams don't
concentrate on upgrade packages for these early races but planning
for a larger step in Barcelona is a considered approach. Barcelona
also affords the teams a benchmark to work from, as we know with Pre
Season testing being conducted at the circuit they have plenty of
data to pour through making it the ideal place to understand any big
upgrades.

The over familiarity of the circuit
with both the drivers and teams however makes it a place that really
is driven by the changing of the guard in terms of the upgrades
bought to Barcelona and their success. Some teams will have smaller
packages for Barcelona having already played the 'little but often'
card, systematically upgrading their challenger throughout the start
of the 2013 campaign. Others however will find their practice
programs cramped with both upgrade and setup changes in order to
extrapolate the performance differences between packages. Not all of
these changes will be transparent especially when we consider the
performance that can be gleaned aerodynamically from the exhaust.

Red Bull find themselves in the
position they have for the last 3 seasons, on the top. However the
margin to other teams is much more finite this season with circuit characteristics, setup and of course tyres bringing the
trailing teams ever closer.

Lotus are once again consistent and
whilst converging on the Red Bull exhaust cross-under tunnel
arrangement still have very distinct differences in the way the rest
of the car is designed. Their tyre management is of course where
Lotus is making strides over their counterparts during the race but
this does come at a slight detriment to them in terms of qualifying.
Lotus however find themselves in a position where qualifying will
become more and more crucial over the season as the other teams find
ways in which to balance their degradation issues over a race
distance. Qualifying at the end of the day rewards you only with
track position for the start of the race, if you leverage too much
tyre damage in the quest for a better grid slot you could relinquish
an advantage for the race. This leads to a fine balancing act
between the best time achievable and the optimum time for qualifying
whilst thinking of the damage it may do to the race strategy. I'm
not saying that drivers have to nurse their tyres but more can be
gained through good strategy on a Sunday than show boating on a
Saturday.

Ferrari's problems with the F2012 seem
to be a distant memory and I think it's fortuitous for the other
teams that they have had issues that have led to bad results thus
far. Last season the team struggled desperately to correlate
performance seen in CFD and their Wind Tunnel(s) with their on track
endeavors. This season their efforts have been scuppered by a
catalogue of on track misfortunes yet they still find themselves well
within the hunt.

Mercedes are leveraging some of what
was learnt in 2012 but cast aside to favour future progression, the
W04. Mercedes made a decision early into last season that they must
bite the bullet and switch their Wind Tunnel operations from 50%
scaling to 60%. 10% may not seem a lot but finite margins like those
are what make the tenth of second differences between teams in F1.
It allows Mercedes to test items that simply couldn't be made in 50%
scale and so the end result should be more reliable data and parts
coming from the factory. Many have speculated that the Mercedes FRIC
system is the reason the team have climbed to the fore this season
and although it is undoubtedly a factor it's not the only reason.
The team provided very little in terms of upgrades throughout the
2012 season leading to the team falling away, their implementation of
the 'Coanda' style exhaust was short lived and instead the team
focused their attention of the their 2013 challenger. The
development curve of an F1 car throughout a season should see an
improvement of at least 1 second in lap time and I believe this
wasn't the case for the W03. Some of the improvement that should
have been seen throughout last season instead resides in the W04
giving the team a spring board into 2013.

Force India from the outside appear to
have the same car as last year, however the VJM06 is virtually all
new giving the team much more scope to progress and refine their car.
The VJM05 started the 2012 season without a 'Coanda' exhaust layout
and so by following the trend and installing their own version they
were always compromising the results. With a fresh canvas the VJM06
started it's life with the 'Coanda' layout installed and some of the
inefficiencies ironed out. Having a step nose design in 2012 the
team didn't take the concept to it's full extent as a trade off
occurs at the highest point with the aero gains from the underside of
the higher nose being lost to erratic aero from the step. The Vanity
Panel installed by the team allowed them to continue to maximise the
height of the nose without the disadvantages of the step. The VJM06
is another example of a car being kind on it's tyres and has allowed
the Force India team to make strides towards good points paying
positions. Their points haul should also put them closer to Mercedes
had they not had had the wheel nut issues in Malaysia and/or had
Adrian Sutil had better luck this season.

McLaren made a bold move going into
2013 with an all new car and many of their detractors have been
critical of them for this. It was a gamble, one unfortunately at
this stage hasn't paid off and will likely blight their season as a
whole. Having been stead fast in their approach towards a lower nose
over the last few seasons the team made adjustments mid way through
last season in order to make gains. A higher nose however is only
part of the story and for the effects to be carried across downstream
the tub itself must also be raised. The MP4-27's tub was around
550mm high whereas the '28' has been raised much closer if not to the
limit of 625mm (limited to that height by regulation) This change in
tub height impacts EVERYTHING aero wise on the car requiring
adjustments up and down the car to re-balance it. Allied to these
aerodynamic changes is McLaren's switch to pull rod suspension at the
front of the car and although I don't see this as one of the teams
issues it does make life more difficult. Ferrari learnt the same
lesson last season and have now made changes to their suspension in
order to affect changes more quickly. The team started testing the
MP4-28 with more complex Turning Vanes mounted under the bulkhead but
in order to make setup changes more quickly they had to revert to
very simple Vanes under the nose. The movement of these Vanes
further forward with a higher nose/tub will undoubtedly have an
impact on the airflow leading to the Sidepods, especially in Yaw.
Others have been critical of McLaren's Front Wing design and it's
easy to see why, with some of the lead teams now featuring 6 and 7
element Front Wing's the 3 element Wing used by McLaren could be seen
as archaic. I too have pointed to the Front Wing as an area the team
could perhaps find improvement from but it's worth noting that a 3
Element wing can be as efficient as a 6/7 tier counterpart if
designed efficiently. The team have already made alterations to
their 'Coanda' layout in order to rectify some of their downforce
problems, targeting the exhaust plume in a different way to remedy
issues caused when the tyres deform under load. Like some of the
other teams it appears that McLaren have missed the ball in terms of
understanding the aerodynamic effects as the rear tyres deform under
load. The team have been seen getting old skool and cutting sections
of the outer Diffuser footplate away in order to extract performance
from it. In an ideal world the footplate would run as close as
possible to tyre but because of the way the sidewall of the Pirelli's
deform this year this gap has to be altered for a wider operating
window. I've talked about the role tyre squirt plays on the Diffuser
in the past and so managing it's effects on the Diffuser is crucial,
with tyre deformation making this task even more difficult.

Toro Rosso have stolen a march
on Sauber and Williamsthrough virtue of similar
reasons to the struggles we see at McLaren. The STR8 is not a
complex machine and instead builds upon it's predecessor much like we
have seen with Force India whom also didn't originally design their
2012 contender with a 'Coanda' exhaust. Having done away with their
'Double Floor' concept the STR8 is a less complex car but perhaps has
more potential. Meanwhile Sauber and Williams are fighting with the
same demons at the rear of the car have mentioned with McLaren and
chiefly the way their 'Coanda' exhausts, rear floor and Diffuser work
with the tyre dynamics. Sauber's
sidepods caught the attention of everyone when they launched the C32
due to their narrow width, having seen an opportunity to slim the
width of the Sidepods when Perez crashed in Monaco last season. The
narrow width of the Sidepod however means that components have had to
be extended longitudinally, increasing the width of the Coke Bottle
region. This has an impact on the 'Coanda' exhaust trajectory and
the other airflow looking to make it's way to the back of the car.
Also affected by the narrowing of the Sidepods is the internal
airflow which must now make it's way rearwards through a more
constricted pathway. Sauber also made their intentions clear early
on that the car was packaged around the use of DRD, sporting an
engine cover outlet that is designed to contain some of the pipework
whilst also designing their Rear Wing with a bowed central section.
The central section of the Wing was designed this way in order to
leverage both additional downforce and less drag but with the car
lacking overall balance they have been forced to abandon their DRD
attempts in favour of other setup work. (As we know setting up DRD
for each circuit can take a considerable time) Sauber tested a more
conventional rear wing during Free Practice in Bahrain and have
reportedly got another to run in Spain. Williams
pre-season didn't seem to highlight the type of issues the team have
encountered during the first few races. Mike Coughlan has been vocal
throughout this early stage of the season that replicating the
'Coanda' exhaust in their tunnel is quite a difficult task. Having
been on the back foot by only testing the solution during 2012 and
not running it during a race the team are having issues with
extracting consistency and balance. The team also trialled their
version of a Red Bull style Exhaust ramp cross-under tunnel but
abandoned it prior to Melbourne probably due to the very same
reasons. It's clear that neither Sauber or Williams are in a
position they expected to be this season but I expect they will both
make headway from Barcelona onwards.

The
battle of the two newer teams as I still like to call them is even
hotter this year with Marussia coming out of the blocks like a
scolded cat. Both teams deserve the right to compete on the Formula
One stage in my opinion and are making extreme efforts to bring
themselves closer to the fight, not only through their efforts at the
circuit but through personnel, associations, technical tie ins and
infrastructure. Marussia
have excelled this season considering they are using KERS for the
first year still utilising the Cosworth engine and purchasing their
KERS unit from Williams. The MR-02 proved to be a solid base having
built on the MR-01 and have continued to provide upgrades to the car
throughout the start of the 2013 campaign. Caterham
on the other hand chose a very different route to start 2013 with the
CT03 essentially a slightly revised version of the CT01. The team
have been pinning their hopes on a resurgence at Barcelona with a
large upgrade package that would see them not only vieing for
position with Marussia but drag them ever closer to the midfield
pack. The team decided to speed up the process however and take a
multitude of parts to the Bahrain GP with Heikki returning to the
fold to test them. The results were so impressive that the team
installed what they had on Charles Pic's car for Bahrain, resulting
in around a 0.5 sec per lap gain. With more to come in Barcelona
(The team were seen testing a Vanity Panel on the CT03 at a filming
day last week) the battle for the last prize winning position (tenth)
is going to be an exciting prospect. (My Bahrain Technical Roundup features the Caterham upgrades)

In Summary

As I have already
alluded to I believe Red Bull still have the quickest point to point
car on the grid but what they won't like is the gap has narrowed.
Ferrari have the best all round machine in my opinion with the
ability to extract both 1 lap performance and stave off degradation
moreso than Red Bull. The fast grid starts their 2 drivers are able
to perform make them even more dangerous as they don't need to
qualify on the front row to be in lead by the first corner. Lotus
have the best race package as they able to extract better strategy
through virtue of their ability to look after their tyres. Their
achilles heel however (much like 2012) is qualifying but in order to
qualify better will they leverage too much of their race strategy
advantage? Mercedes are the reverse of Lotus, able to extract
performance during qualifying they leverage to much from the tyres to
the detriment of the race. These top four teams are probably only
separated by the matter of 2-3 tenths per lap in terms of raw
performance but with qualifying and the race causing a critical
difference in the strategy they use I think we will continue to see a
yo-yo of results for some races to come.

Force India and
McLaren seem to be sitting in their own little group at the moment
with the former achieving both good qualifying and race positions
through a good understanding of their entire package. McLaren
meanwhile as we know are struggling but their problems are
quantifiable and so it is just a matter of time and perseverance
before they rejoin the lead 4 in the battle for race wins. Track and
conditions dependent these two seem to be around 4-6 tenths off the
pace and through virtue of strategy and others misfortunes they are
able to mix it with those ahead.

Toro Rosso, Sauber
and Williams are all around 7-8 tenths away from where they would like (From the lead times),
the latter 2 have a chance of significantly reducing that gap should
they be able to rectify some of their aerodynamic issues but for the
time being I can't see Toro Rosso making massive strides towards the
front.

Marussia and
Caterham will continue to battle it out for tenth place throughout
the season but with the least resources of all the teams you have to
wonder who will shift focus first. As we know 2014 is a monumental
task for all the teams but as you move down the grid it becomes even
more difficult in terms of both financial power and infrastructure. Had the 2014 rules not made it so the engine suppliers are required to use the same mounting points, Marussia may be a little disadvantaged not having a supplier with Cosworth going by the wayside. What will also be interesting is Caterham's technology share with Red Bull whom they purchase their Gearbox and rear suspension. With 2014 seeing teams use 8 Speed gearboxes in favour of 7 it could be the first time we see Red Bull supply the same Technology they use to their customers. (Caterham currently use an older derivative Red Bull gearbox and suspension layout)

The shift we see
between the teams from race to race is not only one of the human
endeavor of race driver vs race driver or one born from a driver
being better at one circuit than another but the harmony of driver,
team personnel, the race car and conditions (amongst a plethora of
other factors). But something that perhaps goes unnoticed is the
dicing of positions that are made by the installation of new parts,
half a tenth here or a tenth there can really make a dramatic
difference to the outcome of any race. So I look forward to
Barcelona and Monaco as the teams present what could be some of the
biggest changes we have seen so far this season and we perhaps start
to see a changing of the guard. Lest we forget the challenge is a moving target and for arguments sake McLaren who I've earmarked as being 4-6 tenths off the lead pack need to not only make up that deficient but any additional time the lead teams find.

2 comments:

I thought I'd just add a little comment I meant to talk about and got sidetracked:

The likes of McLaren went into the 2013 season with a plan of perceived upgrades with the largest of the season scheduled for Barcelona. When the proverbial hit the fan in Melbourne the team had to hit the reset button and the advanced program put on hold whilst modified parts/components are processed for testing.

Very good as always Matt. As I said on twitter, it is really a shame Williams couldn't keep the form they had last year. Not bringing the new car to the test in Xerez was already a bad signal for me. Now we head to Barcelona and I don't see them fighting for victory as they did last year with Maldonado.

Red Bull is likely to emerge at the top very soon. They have a very good package and will find the way to deal with the Pirellis. In Barcelona we will have the hardest compounds so I expect them to be in front. It is very weird this. The last couple of season we've seen the supersofts in Montmelò. This season we won't. Let's hope this thing don't get boring very soon.