Tropical Storm DELTA

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TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED... BUT SOME DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING THIS EVENING NOT FAR TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER. DELTA STILL MOSTLY HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED
TROPICAL STORM... ALTHOUGH IT IS STARTING TO TAKE ON SOME
NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION... AND DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO PUNCH IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE-BASED
ESTIMATES AND ON CONTINUITY... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO
55 KT. DELTA WILL BE OVER 22C WATERS TOMORROW AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
HOWEVER... DELTA WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS IN ABOUT
18 HOURS AND TO THE COAST OF MOROCCO IN ABOUT 30 HOURS.
DELTA IS GRADUALLY TURNING MORE EASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 070/23. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY
STRAIGHTFORWARD... AS DELTA IS GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLY
CURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC AND WESTERN EUROPE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PATH OF DELTA... TOWARD MOROCCO...
BUT WITH DISAGREEMENTS ON SPEED WHICH ARE OFTEN THE CASE WITH
RAPIDLY MOVING SYSTEMS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MOST OF THE MODELS HANG ON TO DELTA AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS OVER NORTHWESTERN
AFRICA. THEREAFTER... THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED WITHIN
A FRONTAL ZONE.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0300Z 29.3N 26.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 30.0N 22.3W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 29/0000Z 30.0N 16.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 29/1200Z 29.5N 10.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 30/0000Z 29.0N 5.4W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 01/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE
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