Mets season opener 2012: Low expectations and high upside define a new year

Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE Mets manager Terry Collins leads a club with low expectations and high upside.

THE ROSTER

MANAGER: Terry Collins2011 RESULT: 77-85

THE STARTERS

C: Josh Thole

L/R;;.268;;.345;;.344;;3 HR;;40 RBI

He flopped to start 2011, then rebounded well enough to retain his starting job. But he’ll need to improve, on offense and defense, in order to cement himself as the long-term solution.

1B: Ike Davis

L/L;;.302;;.383;;.543;;7 HR;;25 RBI

He returned from ankle woes. He survived Valley Fever. Now the real question: Can he produce like he did last April? It’s difficult to project his performance.

2B: Daniel Murphy

L/R;;.320;;.362;;.448;;6 HR;;49 RBI

This is his third go-round as a middle infielder. Knee injuries felled him the first two tries. If he stays upright, he’s a valuable piece of the lineup.

SS: Ruben Tejada

R/R;;.284;;.360;;.335;;0 HR;;36 RBI

He’s not Jose Reyes. But he can get on base, and his defense may be an upgrade. He
succeeded last season as a 21-year-old, which impressed his bosses.

3B: David Wright

R/R;;.254;;.345;;.427;;14 HR;;61 RBI

A back injury and some poor luck wrecked 2011. He’ll have to deal with trade rumors, even if his immediate future with the team appears secure — for 2011, at least.

LF: Jason Bay

R/R;;.245;;.329;;.374;;12 HR;;57 RBI

Maybe his productive September was a sign of a resurgence. Or maybe it was just a fluke. He has floundered for much of his time here.

CF: Andres Torres

S/R;;.221;;.312;;.330;;4 HR;;19 RBI

He was a star in 2010 with San Francisco, but 2011 was a disappointment. The Mets need him to avoid a strikeout-filled repeat performance.

RF: Lucas Duda

L/R;;.292;;.370;;.482;;10 HR;;50 RBI

He could be the offense’s breakout star, if he can replicate his production during the second half of last season. The defense may be an adventure, though.

THE ROTATION:

Brad Barr-US PRESSWIREJohan Santana came to the Mets as baseball's best pitcher, but his time in Queens has been injury riddled. After missing the entire 2011 season, he'll return to the mound on Opening Day for the first time since Sept. 2010.

1. LHP Johan Santana – (2010 stats)

11-9;;2.98 ERA;;144 K;;55 BB;;1.176 WHIP

He has been so closely observed during spring training, with every start monitored and analyzed. He believes he can still be an excellent pitcher, even after shoulder surgery. The team has 55 million reasons to hope he’s right.

2. RHP R.A. Dickey

8-13;;3.28 ERA;;134 K;;54 BB;;1.227 WHIP

For two years, he has been the team’s most effective pitcher. Opponents haven’t figured out his knuckleball just yet, and Dickey has only grown more comfortable.

3. LHP Jon Niese

11-11;;4.40 ERA;;138 K;;44 BB;;1.411 WHIP

Some members of the organization see him as the key to the season. Advanced metrics say his production should improve in 2012. The team would love to see that.

4. RHP Mike Pelfrey

7-13;;4.74 ERA;;105 K;;65 BB;;1.472 WHIP

His time as staff ace in 2011 was ineffective and his Grapefruit League results were rough. But the team hopes he can provide 200 useful innings.

5. RHP Dillon Gee

13-6;;4.43 ERA;;114 K;;71 BB;;1.376 WHIP

He soared at the start of the last season. He sagged back into mediocrity down the stretch and blamed his fitness. He’ll have a second crack at competence now.

THE BULLPEN

1. RHP Frank Francisco

1-4;;3.55 ERA;;53 K;;18 BB;;1.322 WHIP

He was a $12 million acquisition of the offseason, only the second player Sandy Alderson has given a two-year deal. But his brutal spring – and an apparent difficulty fielding the position – was a tad worrisome.

2. RHP Ramon Ramirez

3-3;;2.62 ERA;;66 K;;26 BB;;1.165 WHIP

Acquired as part of the Angel Pagan trade, Ramirez has nasty stuff. His strikeout totals jumped in 2011, and he’s a ready-made option to close if Francisco falters.

3. RHP Bobby Parnell

4-6;;3.64 ERA;;64 K;;27 BB;;1.466 WHIP

His trial as the club’s closer in 2011 fizzled out, and he appears set for a future in middle relief. Still, his arsenal impresses and he has had success in set-up roles.

4. RHP Jon Rauch

5-4;;4.85 ERA;;36 K;;14 BB;;1.346 WHIP

The 6-10 veteran struggled with the Blue Jays last year due to a propensity for allowing homers. If he can keep the baseball in the ballpark, his numbers should improve.

5. RHP Manny Acosta

4-1;;3.45 ERA;;46 K;;15 BB;;1.383 WHIP

In a quiet fashion, he has been one of the team’s more effective relievers the past two seasons. He’s another hard-throwing option at Collins’ disposal.

6. LHP Tim Byrdak

2-1;;9.82 ERA;;47 K;;19 BB;;1.407 WHIP

Byrdak, 38, recovered quicker than expected from meniscus surgery during the middle of May, and will take his spot in the bullpen as the lefty specialist.

The 41-year-old journeyman will be the team’s long reliever, and the first option if an emergency starter is required. Considering Santana’s health, this role is critical.

THE BENCH

1. OF Scott Hairston

R;;R;;.235;;.303;;.470;;7 HR;;24 RBI

Hairston missed most of the spring with an oblique strain. He’s back for a second season as the team’s primary pinch-hitting option, with occasional duty in center field.

Jim McIsaac/MCTJustin Turner will look to win back a spot in the starting rotation.

2. IF Justin Turner

R;;R;;.260;;.334;;.356;;4 HR;;51 RBI

After losing out in the second-base competition, he proved a valuable utility player in 2011. He’ll see time everywhere in the infield besides shortstop.

3. IF Ronny Cedeno

R;;R;;.249;;.297;;.339;;2 HR;;32 RBI

He was Pittsburgh’s primary shortstop the past two seasons, but settled for a reserve role this offseason. The team hopes he can boost his career .286 on-base percentage.

4. OF Mike Baxter

L;;R;;.235;;.350;;.441;;1 HR;;4 RBI

Due to a torrid spring, he bested Adam Loewen in the competition for the left-handed-hitting bench option. He can also play first base.

5. C Mike Nickeas

R;;R;;.189;;.246;;.264;;1 HR;;6 RBI

Long appreciated by pitchers for his game-calling ability, he needs to display some semblance of offense to last as a major-league backup.

THREE BIGGEST SERIES

1. Versus Miami, April 24-26

Jose Reyes makes his return to Citi Field. He’ll likely be greeted with cheers – and it gives the Mets a chance to look at his free-spending new squad. Miami added closer Heath Bell and starter Mark Buehrle. They already featured a lineup built around 22-year-old phenom Giancarlo Stanton and former MVP candidate Hanley Ramirez. Now Reyes is added to the mix.

2. At Washington, June 5-7

The Nationals have quietly positioned themselves as the team to beat in the division for the next five years. By this point in the season, it’ll be curious to see how the Mets have fared. The team has a serious issue with it’s starting pitching depth, a problem they did not really have to face in 2011. So will Johan Santana still be available to start by June?

3. At Philadelphia, August 28-31

With the trade deadline come and gone, the Mets may headed to Citizens Bank Park without star third baseman David Wright. Philadelphia has owned them in recent years. But the Phillies are in decline. Their two most accomplished hitters, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, are out to begin the season, and timetables on both are murky. Their reliance on their starting pitching will be tested this season.

THEY’LL WIN IT ALL IF . . .

The stars align. There’s no other way to say it: These Mets are still several years away from seriously considering contention. The team has internally positioned this as another bridge season. Their only expectation is competence, a competitive club that brings fans to Citi Field and aids the cash-strapped Wilpons.

THEY’LL COLLAPSE IF . . .

Johan Santana breaks down, David Wright experiences another injury and the young hitters fail to produce. All are possible, as haunting as that may be for Mets fans. The team does not have much depth, and injuries could wreak havoc once more.

KEYS TO THE SEASON

1. Johan Santana

If he’s healthy, they have a fearless, two-time Cy Young winner to head their rotation. If his shoulder can’t hold up, their lack of depth becomes an issue. Santana’s fastball velocity has been impressed this spring, considering how invasive his shoulder operation was. He’s sat around 88 mph, which is close to his 2010 form. His instincts and offspeed pitches allow him to remain valuable. During that 2010 season, pitching with elbow and shoulder problems, Santana posted a 2.98 ERA in 199 innings. He may no longer be an ace, but he’s still a talented pitcher. When healthy.

2. David Wright’s status

It makes little sense for the team to deal Wright this summer. His value has never been lower. They’ll likely recoup more in a deal during the winter – if they decided to trade him at all. But the Mets will be listening for offers. Wright, of course, doesn’t want to hear about it. He’s told reporters he will no longer answer questions about his contract, which could allow him to become a free agent after 2013. Wright would like to remain a Met for the rest of his career. But the Mets are still evaluating his long-term potential.

3. The bullpen

Sandy Alderson targeted this group for an overhaul during the winter. With limited resources available, Alderson threw the bulk of his cash at relievers. Now it’s up to Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch and Ramon Ramirez to show their value. It’s also critical for Manny Acosta (in his first year of arbitration) and Bobby Parnell (arbitration-eligible in 2013), whose price tags are rising. Otherwise, another overhaul could be coming. All three new additions have looked shaky at times in the Grapefruit League. It is silly to make judgments based solely on low-key games in the spring, but it’s something to be mindful of.

STRENGTHS

1. The offense: The middle of the order – Wright, Davis, Bay and Duda – could be formidable, with Duda clobbering the baseball all spring. The new dimensions at Citi Field should only aid them. Plus, Daniel Murphy and Ruben Tejada showed aptitude last season.

2. Youth: One of the reasons behind the team’s consistent injury troubles in recent years is their aging roster. This season, they field a lineup with only two players (Bay and Torres) in their 30s. If they can avoid the freak accidents from 2011, the team will be in good shape.

3. Lowered expectations: No one expects much from this bunch. They are predicted to reach the playoffs, or even really contend. So any improvements on last year’s result will be seen as a positive.

WEAKNESSES

1. Starting pitching depth: If Santana cannot sustain his health during the year – and Mike Pelfrey continues his downward trend – there aren’t many reinforcements immediately ready. Neither Chris Schwinden nor Miguel Batista is a panacea, and their top prospects will not be ready for most the season.

Andrew Savulich/New York Daily NewsMike Pelfrey was once a front-of-the rotation possibility, now relegated to a question mark.

2. Leadoff hitter: Last year, the team had Jose Reyes setting the table again and again, posting the highest OBP of his career. Now Andres Torres fills that role – fresh off a disastrous offensive campaign in 2011. He struck out often, and injuries waylaid him.

3. Defense: They fielded one of the worst fielding clubs in baseball last season. The addition of Torres should help some, but there are still issues at third base, second base and right field. And the team does not possess many strikeout-heavy starters, so defense will be critical.