Since 2008, an independent look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. Nothing is for sale, and this not a Profit and Loss report either. They're boring.

Sunday, 24 February 2013

The Sultan's last couple of blog posts look like a sales pitch to try and get someone to invest in him,and I cant see anybody foolish enough as he has never even proved he is a long time winner.

The simple fact is if he was a winner he had all last season to compound some of his tennis winnings ready for this etc. etc.The guy needs a reality check and he's already on the downward spiral by blaming the Odwyer syndrome.

A little harsh to compare the Sultan with Odwyer perhaps, and I'm sure the Sultan is smart enough to understand that outside funding is not the answer.

He is well aware of the additional stress that trading for others brings, writing:

I had been trading relatively stress-free for 9 months, yet that was changed instantly as soon as the pressure was turned up a notch. It wasn't that I was worried about losing the money because the deal was that I was not liable for any losses. In theory, that should've made trading easier and more relaxed (and that was indeed the case once I'd got a few wins on the board) but it was the strain of knowing that if I failed to make enough profit to impress the syndicate, I would be dropped and lose out on a fantastic opportunity, that was the real pressure.

This 'performance anxiety' reached a peak at the time, exacerbated by the fact that I 'needed' the money but my bank size was tiny and money management poor. Today, I enjoy trading much more because I have a style of trading that suits me better and this twinned with much better bank management, no complete reliance on the income source and a risk-averse strategy, mean that I am able to trade without anxiety.

I guess somewhere between then and now came the 'complete reliance' on the income and thus the withdrawing of all the profits. To me, it seems that it is at that point that the problems began. Either expenses increased or wins decreased. As several, including myself, have said, the answer is simple - stop withdrawing all the profits, and let the bank build.

Harry Haller wrote:

As other guy said, I really think you should try to leave a small amount of your earnings in the bank each week/month. Even a seemingly small amount like 100 will do I think, as compounding really is a powerful beast!

As someone who has made just the one deposit of £100 and didn't make his first withdrawal until over two years later when the bank was larger than would ever be needed in five figures, I can attest to the merits of leaving your bank alone.

No one in their right mind would hand over money to an unknown third-party to trade with. As others have said, the sports trading markets are not scalable for a start, and even if that extra capital could be used, some real evidence of likely profitability would be required. The plaintiff Odwyer cry of "I know I can do it" doesn't cut it when it comes to seeking investment, and while the Sultan doesn't do the P&L thing, one reason why his blog stands out, he did reveal that January's profit was "approximately £500". Honesty, but hardly a sales pitch.

You don't have the "devil" inside like Cassini and Mark Iverson have. You cannot make money by been honest and trying to find something logic in the market, every day you think you know what you have to do next time, but that day will never come. The only way to make money is to feed yourself with hate and attack, you have to be a snake in this, you have to wait for hours and do nothing, every day. It's a dark world, I admit it. There is no place for correct fair pattern here. Don't listen to anyone but yourself. Forget this world, forget all the ''friends'' you have here, forgot all the interviews you have made. They are humans. Did you get any real help from them but advices to keep trying ? What to try ? Your soul is pure, all those thoughts that keep coming over and over again are the ones you should follow. That day is close. May not be today but it's coming, the day when you shut down this blog and live a happy normal life you deserve it.

I'm not sure what most of that is about, to be honest, but apparently myself and Mark are possessed, filled with hate and poised to attack like snakes, while the Sultan's soul is pure. The end of the world is nigh. All very strange.He's true that patience is key though, and if part of this refers to the unlikelihood that you can find an edge in such a well traded sport as tennis, well I tend to agree. But I'm not sure he actually said that.

9 comments:

Not much I'm gonna add to the debate as I'm not keen on getting into one but there are a couple of things I wanted to set straight. Firstly, although I trade long hours some days, which could be described as 'full time' it's not my only income source (I'm a freelance writer). The money I make from trading doesn't really go towards normal living expenses, but towards something else which I'm not going to divulge. It's not a black and white situation.

Secondly, in response to one of your quoted posters, I HAVE traded with someone else's money (a trial, as I blogged about already) and as far as they were concerned, I traded beyond their expectations, even if it was just for one month. They got in touch with me because I HAVE proved that I can make money consistently - I showed my monthly P&L every month of the tennis season in 2012, so it's all there clear for anyone to see. If that was enough for them (an established syndicate of betting pros) then it should be enough for many other potential investors. I don't think they will consider themselves 'fools' with the several hundred pounds I made for them in October for doing nothing other than trust me with a couple of grand. As for the other traders involved, well, that is a different matter!

If people view my posts as 'a sales pitch' I don't really care. I try to be honest, I didn't have to write about my trial betting with other's money but I thought people would find it interesting. If I was still working for them I would never have even mentioned it.

Finally, I made a little over 50% of my bank on average per month in 2012. It's all there on the blog. If that's not considered successful, then I really may as well give up!

As for Speedwave, he means well but he's wrong. He is trying to say I don't have the ruthlessness in me to take other's money and succeed as a trader. I don't think you need to be ruthless but you need to have conviction and determination and fighting spirit all of which I have in abundance. We all have down times and question ourselves, especially in this game. It's just that most don't blog about it! It's the last time I will.

And as I've already commented before on my blog, Odwyer believed that he NEEDED a bigger bank in order to make his strategy work. I don't NEED a bigger bank, I WANT a bigger bank - don't we all? (OK, not you Cassini!) My strategy will not change with a bigger bank, I will just make more money. That's all I want to do essentially. I'm not even looking for vast investment (certainly not enough that will disrupt a market), just a little to allow me to make enough so I CAN start to compound.

I never really respond to this kind of thing, although I've seen it written about me before. :-) Not that I mind tbh! Cassini, you'll sit there and write about people all day. At the end of the day, we'll never see any screen-shots from you will we?! Nothing really to back up what you say. And even if you did, it would probably be a one-off to suit you. It's just all talk on your part.

For a 10% edge, needing 1.61 on a 1.46 shot is the same as seeking 2.2 on a 2.0 shot, although 10% is an arbitrary number that works for me. The calculations above don't include commission, but of course in the real world you need to account for this. Backing true evens shots at evens isn't enough unfortunately!

Anon - put words into my mouth all you like, whatever makes you happy. You have no idea of my situation.

Curious - it's not pennies, my Betfair P&L is there for everyone to see that if you bother to check. Again, you don't know my situation but I don't have to justify myself, you will either believe me or not, either way is of no consequence to me.

About Me

I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.