Rollins Returns to Leadoff Spot

Jimmy Rollins returns to the leadoff spot today for the first time this season. It’s about time, as Todd Zolecki blogged earlier today.

Things needed to be shaken up in the lineup because, while it’s easy to look at this team as one that is simply treading water without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, the truth is, it’s the core of the lineup that’s struggling.

Let’s take a quick look:

Through 20 games, the Phillies are now 9-11, averaging 3.20 runs per game, having scored two runs or fewer in 11 of their 20 contests.

And the overriding explanation, obviously, is that it’s tough to score a lot of runs without Howard or Utley in the lineup.

Hard to argue with that logic, but it got me to thinking about last season, too.

Of course, Utley wasn’t around at the start of 2011 either, but Howard was. And while no one was exactly in love with this offense this time a year ago, I don’t remember this same level of panic.

In fact, through 20 games a year ago, the Phillies sported a far more robust 14-6 record, were averaging 4.6 runs per game and had scored at least three runs in all but three games.

So, was Howard (and Utley’s prior replacements) that much of a difference?

Let’s take a quick look:

Ryan Howard (2011): .273/.330/.494 with three homers and 23 strikeouts.
1B platoon (2012): .315/.375/.507 with three homers and 20 strikeouts.

Hmmm. You could make the argument that this year’s first base production has actually been better than what Howard offered a year ago through 20 games*, so that’s hardly the reason for the huge dip in production.

(*Note: Two important things to consider in those comparisons, however. For one, Howard could reasonably expected to continue those numbers, if not improve upon them. Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix will almost certainly regress during the season. Secondly, part of this improvement might be that the Phillies actually have a player in Wigginton who can hit lefties. Howard was dreadful last year against left-handers. Wigginton has a .444/.524/.611 against lefties.)

So how about second base? Is Freddy Galvis that much worse than Wilson Valdez, Pete Orr and Michael Martinez?

Last year’s numbers were certainly a tad better, though Galvis and Orr have managed a lot more extra-base hits. And if we forget about Galvis’ 0-for-12 start, the batting average for second basemen actually jumps to .283.

So, it’s fair to say the production there hasn’t dropped off dramatically either.

What about in right field, however, where Hunter Pence was supposed to be light years ahead of Ben Francisco a year ago?

Right Field (2011): .234/.302/.402 with 13 strikeouts
Right Field (2012): .266/.310/.418 with 20 strikeouts

Again, the numbers are largely similar — which is, of course, part of the problem.

The Phillies needed a major upgrade in RF, and that hasn’t been the case through the first 20 games of 2012.

In fact, even as Rollins supposedly struggled in the 3 spot last year (he was there for 26 games before Charlie Manuel abandoned that plan), he still managed to post a .253/.337/.304 mark through 20 games. This season: .216/.253/.243.

The good news is, Rollins, Pence, Victorino and Polanco have enough of a track record to suggest that things will get better as the season goes along. Polanco, after all, has already raised his batting average nearly 60 points in two games. Funny how that happens with such a small sample size.

The bad news, of course, is that it’s hard to blame Utley and Howard for what’s happened thus far. The onus for the Phillies slow start rests solely on the guys who were being counted on to produce, not the guys who were filling in for those big bats missing from the lineup. What needs to change isn’t the order of the lineup, but the production from the stalwarts in it.

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