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Analyst: GTAIV Success Defined By Console Attach Rate

Everyone is always talking about Grand Theft Auto IV and how many copies it could potentially sell, but according to UBS analyst Ben Schachter, it's more about the number of sales vs. the attach rate for each console. (source- GameDaily)

After saying he expects GTAIV to sell about 6 million copies this year in the US, which will represent approximately 60% of the worldwide total, he said that ultimately, the game's success will be dictated by its attach rate.

"Investors cannot define success of the game in terms of units of GTA IV sold compared with prior GTA titles," said Schachter. "This is because the game can only be sold to consumers who own a console capable of playing the game. To that end, the success of the game is defined by the attach rate (or tie ratio) which equals the number of units sold / the installed base of applicable consoles (in this case Xbox 360 and PS3)."

In total, he thinks GTAIV could sell 10.5 million units worldwide, which would generate around $360 million in total retail sales. Of course, you can't let an analyst off the hook these days without asking about EA's quest to obtain Take-Two Interactive, and Schachter believes it will definitely happen. He said that, "at the end of the day, we continue to believe that ERTS will be able to buy TTWO in the $26-$28 range." However, it should be noted that the latest offer from EA ($26/share) expires very soon: as of Friday, midnight. As far as Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter's prediction that an EA takeover could delay GTAIV, Schachter said that is "extremely unlikely." He added- "GTA IV will almost certainly launch on time (Apr. 29) and meet/possibly exceed expectations."

Comments (6 posts)

"meet/possibly exceed expectations" awesome :Dbtw i thnk i found a typo in your article Mr Dutka (lol i guess i don't like saying Ben because its a tad informal :P) "the game's success will be dictated 'bit' its attach rate" im sorry i just noticed it, i wasn't going through it with a fine toothed comb or anything...

On the subject of the possible EA take over of T2, my opinion is that analysts put too much emphasis on people's greed for money. T2 may well have more of a love for the games industry than for money. And if that is the case i think we should all support them rather than assuming they are money hungry.Yeah know a lot of people's money is tied up in this, but has money really taken the place of right and wrong?

I Think its fun having all the freedom to do as you wish whether it be killing innocent avatars lol or pickin up a ho watchin my money deplete then beating her senseless to get it back lol.The point is this game will Rock like all the others GTA Games.