Arborists disagree over effect climate change will have on Christmas tree sales

10 January 2008,

Some arborists have played down fears that climate change might bring an end to the UK Christmas tree industry.

However, experts are predicting a move from the most popular Nordmann
tree to the US favourite - and more needle-fast - Pinus contorta
(lodgepole pine) in coming years.

Managing director Sadie Lynes of Berkshire-based Christmas tree
wholesaler Jadecliff, which sells 120,000 trees a year, said: "Christmas
trees will become a thing of the past if we always have a warm autumn.
You can't sell trees that can't hold their needles."

Myerscough College arboriculture lecturer Duncan Slater said the weather
would remain cold enough for Christmas trees to be felled, when they
have stopped growing in most of the country. "This is a problem for
people growing trees in the South, if the climate gets three or four
degrees warmer. The end growth could be soft (if autumn is warm). But
the American lodgepole pine could be the answer."

Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew arboretum head Tony Kirkham said day-length,
rather than warmth, was the most important factor that determines when
Christmas trees stop growing.

"There has been a problem this year with needle drop from Nordmann trees
sold as needle-fast and, I assume, that is because they are being cut
earlier. Even needle-fast trees drop their needles eventually. Ten years
ago everyone bought a Picea abies, which became a skeleton before New
Year and now most growers are growing Nordmanns. Demand has grown and
they are having to cut earlier to keep up. But most trees become dormant
on day-length, rather than temperature.

"Quality has improved dramatically in the past 10 years, with more
effort going into growing Christmas trees as a crop, rather than the
sparse things we used to get.

"Years ago, if you had a Nordmann you were considered well-off - now
most people say it's the only Christmas tree available. It's a fantastic
tree for £25. But there could be a trend to change again. It could
be the Wollemi pine in 25 years' time. Pines are more needle-fast."

Meanwhile, UK-grown tree sales may have reached record levels, according
to early indications, and realised higher prices after imports fell.
Despite this, DIY chain B&Q started a price war, cutting 180-210cm trees
to £24.98, with Wyevale selling them at £34.99 and Homebase
at £39.99.