KOLKATA: Crisil Ratings stated a slowdown in bank lending may be bottoming out this fiscal, while gross credit off take may rise 8-9% year-on-year in fiscal 2021 backed by retail demand.Bank loan may grow at about 6% this fiscal, the rating firm said.
Its share of total bank credit is expected to rise around 400 bps to 28 per cent between March 2019 and March 2021.The corporate lending (excluding lending to NBFCs) is expected to remain subdued in fiscal 2020 and thereafter, may witness a slight uptick.
Crisil projected a modest 2-3 per cent rise in this segment, leading to a fall in its share in total bank credit to 48 per cent at the end of March 2021 from 51 per cent three summers back.
"Low capacity utilisation in the economy would keep private investments muted in the near to medium term, and the government’s mega-push to infrastructure will translate into credit growth only gradually," Crisil said.As for this fiscal, it is expecting some growth momentum in the fourth quarter, after a subdued first three quarters.
RBI’s move to exempt banks from cash reserve ratio (CRR) requirement for incremental credit to certain sectors for up to five years, may support lending.