PB (4/13): NBA Playoff Openers - The Game Inside The Game

NBA Playoff Openers – The Game Inside The Game…On the Warriors getting their defensive swagger back, the 76ers pace, the confidence of Myles Turner, and Westbrook/Gobert meeting at the rim…

Point Blank – April 13, 2018

The NBA Playoffs are not a continuation of the regular season, but instead a league of their own, not only the better players (and usually coaches as well) having made it to the brighter stage, but also the level of competition picking up. The latter matters, given the lack of integrity many of the regular season games bring.

It also becomes handicapping at one of its purest forms now – every game will be televised, which means a steeplechase through which all involved in the betting markets can compete from the same starting position. Those that interpret the outcomes best in terms of getting on top of the game flows are the ones that will end up with the most money.

A positive anticipation is difficult for some folks to accept because the NBA brings a deserved level of cynicism, so I’ll use that to set up the Friday Jukebox for an appropriate background, Widespread Panic being joined by Chris Robinson and Neal Casal for a terrific cover of Cover of War’s “Slippin’ into Darkness”. Yes, this sport can make it feel that way to some, but there is money to be made. This was live in Memphis in 2014:

I will be using The Game Inside the Game (TGITG) as the format throughout the playoffs, brining one key element from each matchup into focus that will be one of the catalysts in determining the scoreboard outcomes. Now let’s roll up the sleeves and get to work.

SAN ANTONIO/GOLDEN STATE – Are the Spurs just what the Warriors defense needs to regain confidence

In the Thursday edition I took a moment to frame the issues that the Warriors were facing in terms of getting back to their past levels, and it primarily comes down to defense, whether it be effort or something tactical. Might this draw be a blessing in disguise for them, the opportunity to match X’s against some of the easiest O’s to guard among the playoff teams?

Yes, Gregg Popovich has built winning teams out of moving the ball on offense to create favorable shot opportunities. This bunch simply isn’t good at converting them anywhere near the past rates; for as much as the loss of Kawhi Leonard means on defense, the lack of a #2 scorer behind LaMarcus Aldridge has hurt even more when they have the ball.

Let’s look at the decline:

2015

106.2 (7)

2016

108.4 (3)

2017

108.8 (7)

2018

105.5 (17)

And that was despite Aldridge having a terrific season, not only averaging more points-per-minute than any season in his career, but also setting a high of 52.0 in Effective FG%. That was enough to keep the offense afloat when he was on the court, but only afloat; what happened when he sat down?

Min

Off

On

2509

107.8

Off

1437

101.8

What image should 101.8 conjure? The Memphis Grizzlies. That is where they finished for the full season, rating #27 in the NBA (the Bulls were at 101.3, Kings 101.1 and Suns 100.8). This may be a fortuitous draw for the Warriors as they rebuild their defensive foundation.

WASHINGTON/TORONTO – What is the Raptors rotation going to be?

There were a whole lot of good things happening because of the Toronto bench this season. First was the natural production that came from the group, which was allowed to play together much like a first unit, so that chemistry could be developed. Quality production led to more minutes, which led to even better chemistry and better production.

It also meant a reduced workload for both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, who carried a lot on their shoulders over the recent playoff campaigns. Let’s review the past three seasons, tracking the Lowry/DeRozan regular-season minutes:

2016

2017

2018

Lowry

37.0

37.4

32.1

DeRozan

35.9

35.4

33.8

And the playoffs:

2016

2017

2018

Lowry

38.3

37.5

???

DeRozan

37.3

37.3

???

Now the key question – while the mpg ramps up for most starters in the playoffs, will Dwane Casey match that, or will he try to remain closer to what has been working. This is not the obvious “if it isn’t broke don’t fix it”, because keeping the reserves out there for the stints they have grown accustomed to means they will have more time up against the starters for the opposition.

I will be watching this closely because there is a major gap in depth between these teams. Might Casey throw his second unit, and in particular their aggression on defense, out there against the Wizard starters a bit to deal some body punches? Might he be willing to lose a basket in some of those interludes to possibly gain two baskets at crunch time?

MIAMI/PHILADELPHIA – The tale of the Tempo, for the 76ers without Joel Embiid

The 76ers were just stupid good down the stretch without Embiid, especially when you consider: A. Dario Saric missed three games completely and most of a fourth; B. J.J. Redick sat out a game; and C. Ben Simmons only averaged 29.2 minutes

How did their 8-0 surge break out on the PP100 charts:

Off

112.6

Def

97.1

Net

+15.5

They were #2 in the league in offense in that span, #1 in defense, and #1 in rebounding. Hidden inside of that is also how Brett Brown chose to attack without Embiid – Philadelphia was also #1 in the NBA in pace, nearly two full possessions ahead of #2 New Orleans, and four ahead of #3 Atlanta.

But is this going to be the playoff pace? That is where the intrigue begins for this one. The Heat can exploit Embiid’s absence with Hassan Whiteside more than just about anyone the 76ers have faced over this last stretch, but beating Whiteside down the court is also a way to neutralize a big man.

Let’s set the parameters here, the pace with Embiid on the court, and then without, because his return is imminent:

Embiid In

100.4

Last 8

106.1

Simmons L8

107.4

And note that this is not the case of some garbage time settings because Simmons has been on the court less than 30 minutes per game – they have played at a 107.4 clip when he has been out there. It is not uncommon so see teams slowing it down late in the season, but this was a tactical play by Brown. Now I want to see if he keeps it up, not just until Embiid’s return, but perhaps a quicker pace afterwards as well.

NEW ORLEANS/PORTLAND – Can the Pelicans stay in rhythm if it becomes a grind

Tempo also comes front and center in this one, and a bit of it was counter-intuitive. Despite not being deep to begin with, and then becoming paper-thin after DeMarcus Cousins went down, New Orleans made a strong run down the stretch by playing fast, Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday getting out into the open court where they can be so dangerous.

The Pelicans were 21-13 after losing Cousins, playing at a 104.5 pace across those games, the league’s swiftest across that stretch. Prior to that it had been a 101.5. But now the challenge – underdogs can struggle to get a fast pace against a favorite that prefers to play it slow.

Since the All-Star break Portland has been #5 in the NBA in Net PP100, keyed by a defense that was #4 across that span, and #3 in Reb%. The Trail Blazers were also #20 in pace, and it makes sense. They took a step up the NBA food chain this season by finally getting the steady big many they needed in Jusuf Nurkic, but also in developing chemistry, a cast of role players in Aminu/Davis/Harkless/Turner in the front-court that were more than willing to let Lillard/McCollumn be an offensive monopoly, while they turned their focus to defense, rebounding and setting screens.

A strong second-half of the season did get derailed for a bit when both Davis & Harkless were sidelined, but the former has returned, and Harkless is now day-to-day; he will play in the series, though perhaps not in the opener. That means the depth and focus are again there to grind.

The Trail Blazers are effective at making the opposition work to find good looks through their athleticism and tenacity, in particular doing a good job of getting back against the break, and don’t mind working deep into the clock themselves because they can rely on Lillard/McCollum being able to create late in the clock. Can New Orleans be effective if the Pelicans are forced to play a series this way?

This is going to be among the most fun to watch because of the contrast. The Bucks come in with the superior talent, especially with Marcus Smart unlikely to appear at all, but it may be a tactical mismatch between Brad Stevens and Joe Prunty in the opposite direction.

One of the more interesting games to track on the NBA’s final night was the seemingly meaningless Boston win over Brooklyn, when Aron Baynes was the only Celtic starter to take the floor, and he was only out there for 20:28. Yet Boston played with discipline, focus and purpose, Stevens not wasting a teaching moment. The options may be limited at PG, which is a hardship in the latter stages of a close game, but the coach has calmly accepted the situation:

“A lot of these guys have played major roles for us all year, and the guys that haven’t can fit into what we’re doing. So we’ll make tweaks that accentuate Jaylen (Brown) and Jayson (Tatum) and Al (Horford) and Marcus Morris and Terry (Rozier) and some of the guys that are playing a ton of minutes for us to do what they do best. But we’ve started the year with stuff for those guys, so ultimately maybe it’s doing it a little bit more, maybe it’s game-to-game adding one or two things that fit what they do best depending on how they’re being guarded, etc. But I think the one thing you can’t do is you can’t overhaul it at this time of the year. You’ve spent too much time building habits.”

Stevens also has the plus of a viable option against Giannis Antetokoumnpo – don’t be surprised if Baynes is kept in the starting #5 spot so that Al Horford can use his wiles against the Milwaukee catalyst, Horford comfortable guarding away from the basket.

What to expect from Prunty in his first playoff go-round? The Bucks got a little better after he took over, playing a little quicker:

Off

Def

Net

Pace

Kidd

107.1

107.5

-.4

97.8

Prunty

108.3

106.8

+1.5

99.4

But there wasn’t anything dynamic in their 12-13 showing since he All Star break.

INDIANA/CLEVELAND – Is Myles Turner ready to be a factor

One of the key to remember in the one-and-done era is how fragile the psyche of a young player can be, even those that are immensely talented, and that brings a focus to Turner as this one begins. He fell off in scoring (14.5 to 12.7) and rebounding (7.3 to 6.4) this season, and went from 51.1 percent shooting to 47.9. It was unexpected, because there was a career arc that seemed to be building.

It matters so much in this series because he goes directly into a Cleveland defense that is under-manned at the #5 spot. The best offensive lineup for Tyronn Lue is to have Kevin Love at the position, but that is also when the Cavs are at their weakest defensively. Can Turner be enough of a factor to alter the Cleveland rotation? This may be as much mental as physical as the series begins.

Some of the Turner struggles were injury-related, missing seven games early with a concussion, and then nine more before the All Star break with a hyper-extended right elbow. But instead of getting healthier and into a better rhythm down the stretch, things came apart. Let’s look at the last 11 games:

PPG

7.8

FG/FGA

30-94

3-Pt

4-22

RPG

4.3

Playoff pressure is not the easiest of times for a young player to regain confidence. His own take: “I can’t make any excuses for myself. Things happen. You just got to move past it.”The question is whether he can, and it is a major question in this series.

UTAH/OKLAHOMA CITY – It’s Westbrook vs. Gobert at the rim

In sorting through the various one-on-one matchups that are a big part of the processes at playoff time, there tends to not be a lot of thought about a point guard going up against a center. Yet that may be the key story here.

Russell Westbrook put up big numbers again this season, but remains a scorer and not a shooter, knocking down just 29.8 percent from 3-point range. It is his ability to get to the rim that has made his overall game so special, in an era in which the league does not have a lot of prime defenders at the #5 spot. Utah has one in Rudy Gobert, and that creates the early flow points to watch in this series. For me it won’t be so much about what happens when Westbrook challenges Gobert, but how often he does so. Will there be any hesitation at all?

Gobert only played in one of the four regular-season meetings between the teams, a 96-87 Utah win back on October 21. Take that not just with a grain of salt, but with a handful, because the Thunder were just beginning to get their new rotation in order. But you can see the impact – Westbrook was 2-11 from the field, scoring only six points, and had nearly as many turnovers (7) as assists (9). It does alert us to the prospects; when OKC becomes a stationery jump-shooting team the offense bogs down.

The flow in this one may become fascinating. Will Westbrook attack with abandon, helping the Thunder to maintain their usual flow, or will there be more pull-up jumpers for him? I am going to be involved from the start, with#514 Oklahoma City/Utah Under (Sunday, 6:35 Eastern) at 205 or better (no rush, this price is likely to improve), not just the ability of the Jazz to slow the Thunder down, but I also expect Billy Donovan to put Paul George on Donovan Mitchell at times, and when Mitchell is harnessed the Utah offense lacks options.

MINNESOTA/HOUSTON – Do the Timberwolves have a prayer of making stops

This one begins right where you think it would – what happens when one of the league’s most explosive offenses, which also brings unique tactics, takes on one of the worst defenses. In the regular season what happened was a 4-0 SU and ATS sweep by the Rockets, games in which they beat the closing spread by 39.5 points.

Naturally it was the offense that led the way, Houston generating a sizzling 129.8 PP100. To put that into perspective, the best offense this season was Golden State at 112.3, and the worst defense Phoenix at 110.6.

If you want true domination of offense over defense, consider those 4th quarters. The Timberwolves were the worst 4thquarter defense in the NBA, allowing nearly one full basket P100 than any other team at 112.6 (Brooklyn was 110.7). Against the Rockets? You almost need to wear shades to even look at this:

Hou "O"

4th Q

vs. MIN

139.3

How does it get any better? Despite two seasons of Tom Thibodeau’s tutelage the young mainstays in the Minnesota rotation haven’t individually gotten much better, and while having Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson around helped a little, it was only a little. The T’Wolves elevated from being the #26 defense in 2017 to #23 this time around, but given the tanking that was going on across the bottom of the league, the truth may be no real improvement at all.

In the Sights, Friday MLB

Over the early days of the MLB season I have focused on studying patterns for starting pitchers in order to get ahead of the curve on changes in performance level, and the reason for the sharp focus is that it doesn’t take the markets long to catch up, starters being under such a microscope. There are two that I want to be in play against tonight, Chris Tillman and Cole Hamels, and while neither is being priced at a bargain rate, there is enough of an edge for an attachment – I’ll make it #970 Boston (7:10 Eastern) attached to #974 Houston (8:10 Eastern) in a Parlay, which will bring the neighborhood of a +110 return.

Tillman was focused on here last weekend as well, and what could be seen in his struggles against the Yankees was that he was throwing about as well as he could, nibbling the edges of the strike zone because there just isn’t anything with pop that he can throw by hitters. He has more than twice as many walks (8) as strikeouts (3) through two starts, and over the past two seasons has accumulated the following dismal resume:

W/L

ERA

FIP

2017-18

1-9

7.92

6.88

Of pitchers that have worked at least 100 innings in that span, no one is within a full run in ERA, or a half-run in FIP. All he can do is pitch to contact and hope for the best.

Hamels has not fallen off as badly as Tillman, but the career arc shows a definitive trend as his velocity declines. There is a natural aging process in play, but also a workload factor, after he dealt nine straight seasons of 180+ innings:

Fastball

ERA

FIP

2016

93.7

3.32

3.98

2017

92.3

4.20

4.62

2018

90.4

5.06

5.90

It isn’t just bucking those two starters that opens the door – the Red Sox are playing far better than the Orioles across the board, while Gerrit Cole has had an eye-popping transition to becoming an Astro, using his slider more than in the past and sporting some ridiculous counts:

K%

43.1

BB%

5.9

SWS%

19.6

That is impossible to maintain, of course, but it shows the stuff he has, and it wouldn't be any surprise at all if he was in Cy Young contention throughout this season.

The Archer story was laid out as the lead here on Monday, so you can refer there for more details, but the bottom line is one of a guy that impresses the Fantasy markets because of his electric strikeout rates, but is sitting on a 20-31/4.12 over the past three seasons, the problem remaining the lack of a third pitch to go with his fast-ball slider combination. And it is a negative sign through the early part of 2018 that his usage of a changeup sits at 5.7 percent. Without confidence and command in that pitch, Archer’s ceiling is far lower than the way he gets priced.

Meanwhile Arrieta’s career arc is past-peak and declining, velocity having been lost from a fast-ball that was once 95.1, but was down to 92.6 in 2017, and just 91.4 in his 2018 debut. Without that setting up other pitches swings and misses have become less frequent, and let’s use FIP and SWS% as indicators of decline:

FIP

SWS%

2015

2.35

11.1

2016

3.52

10.5

2017

4.16

8.7

2018

5.30

6.8

Yes, there is the caution of it being early-days in his new Philadelphia uniform, but sensing a logic that can get one ahead of the markets is a big part of what this endeavor is about. And part of that logic is why I use FIP above, because the bottom line run-prevention of Arrieta has been attached to defense in the past, and will become more attached as the strikeouts decline. What must be appreciated about his recent run is what it meant to have the Cubs behind him, and let’s use team defense BABIP as something that may be the preface to why his 2018 ERA may not match the past:

ARRIETA

CHIC

PHI

2015

.246

.287

.316

2016

.241

.255

.304

2017

.279

.285

.304

If we use FIP as the guide, Arrieta benefitted by more than a half run of ERA per nine innings across those last three seasons because of the Cubs defense. Had he thrown the same pitches with the Phillies, who were below league average in each of those campaigns, it would have been a far different story. That is not showing up in the price points, which is something that leaves market opportunity.

There will be propsects for runs in the latter innings as well, both bullpens having hiccups so far that may be who they are for the long-term, and not just the short early returns – the Phillies are #23 in K/BB ratio and the Rays #24. The only way to lose this ticket is for one of the teams to be held to two runs or less, which could be salvaged by a breakout from the other offense anyway, which makes this value point a fair target for aim.

If you want to know when PB is ready to go each day, as well as following along for some of the most important Sports Betting news as it unfolds, make @Vegaspointblank a part of your routine.

Ok guys here we go, the NBA's real season, and the chance to sink our teeth into each matchup, instead of the rubbish the regular season often leaves scattered about.

This will be the full weekend thread, covering everything up through T'Wolves/Rockets on Sunday night, so let's get the discussions flowing. There are a lot of opportunities out there, including player props, to put edges into play, but the one caveat remains - "Who do you like in XXX vs. YYYY?" is not a discussion, and it a long-shot to get a response.

Note that as was the case in past summers I have a non-sports project that will have me far off of the communications grid on Saturdays, until football comes around again. Because of that any talking points you wish to explore on the Saturday games hold be brought in today. In the past many of you have done an excellent job of keeping the game-day discussion flows going while I am not at the desk, and hopefully this summer they can be taken to an even higher level.

Also note that on occasion there will be something from the Saturday/Sunday MLB boards added, both in the opening take and the running threads, so you can be on the lookout for them. Now let's all go out and find some edges.

And I'll bring one in from late in the Thursday thread that may matter to some Friday shoppers:

Originally Posted by rickste

Good morning Dave. Interested in your thoughts re Oak-Sea.
Sea at home current line +1.03.
This game is about as even across the board as I analyze it giving no value to Sea home field.
Leake in his 1st 2 starts has had some control issue but that is not his M.O.
SP a wash offenses a wash bullpen I give a small adv to Sea.
I have Sea being favored at around 1.12.
???
Thanks

Originally Posted by Point Blank

I think Leake is going to be fine, and #978 Seattle fits for me at even money or better. But no rush, because the markets seemingly don't like what they see from his early control problems, and in general don't like him because he is not a high strikeout guy. Pinny is up to -115, and I see as high as -117 in a couple of spots, so the value is there - it is just a question of when to pull the trigger.

Of the 8 first round series - I believe not all 8 favorites will win. I wonder which underdogs you give the best chance of pulling an upset. Indiana seemed to create issues for the Cavs during the regular season and the Cavs inability to get defensive stops makes this year the most challenging for LeBron to return to the NBA Finals for the 9th (!) straight year.

I thought maybe some Pelicans, but not sure how they have been doing it - except for having one of the 5 best players on the planet. Is there an underdog we can really watch with a chance - throwing it out to the group as well as the Prof as to which of the 8 series will the favorite not win?

This afternoon, something you taught me is compelling me to wager a small ticket on the Atlanta Braves. Baseball being baseball and the Braves are actually playing pretty well - a good lineup and although Anibel Sanchez can be batting practice - he is currently in ok form and should not be a -200 underdog to a Cubs teams that took it's licks vs Pittsburgh and is missing it's big stick in the middle Anthony Rizzo.

2-1 odds, I may just play the first five or split my ticket, but Sanchez hasn't fallen down the rabbit hole yet (he will later) and the Braves are currently bashing the ball during the day. Check the splits.

Also Zack Grienke should not be an underdog tonight at Dodger Stadium. He loves pitching off that mound - check career at Dodger Stadium and the Diamondbacks are in better form as well as I'm not a Maeda fan and Roberts isn't doing him any favors yo-yo-ing him from starter to reliever to starter in first 10 days of season.

I don't think Zack felt the Dodgers tried hard enough to keep him after his amazing season for LA and I think he pitches with a chip on his shoulder when he returns and you are getting the better pitcher and team in better form for plus money.

Of the 8 first round series - I believe not all 8 favorites will win. I wonder which underdogs you give the best chance of pulling an upset. Indiana seemed to create issues for the Cavs during the regular season and the Cavs inability to get defensive stops makes this year the most challenging for LeBron to return to the NBA Finals for the 9th (!) straight year.

I thought maybe some Pelicans, but not sure how they have been doing it - except for having one of the 5 best players on the planet. Is there an underdog we can really watch with a chance - throwing it out to the group as well as the Prof as to which of the 8 series will the favorite not win?

This afternoon, something you taught me is compelling me to wager a small ticket on the Atlanta Braves. Baseball being baseball and the Braves are actually playing pretty well - a good lineup and although Anibel Sanchez can be batting practice - he is currently in ok form and should not be a -200 underdog to a Cubs teams that took it's licks vs Pittsburgh and is missing it's big stick in the middle Anthony Rizzo.

2-1 odds, I may just play the first five or split my ticket, but Sanchez hasn't fallen down the rabbit hole yet (he will later) and the Braves are currently bashing the ball during the day. Check the splits.

Also Zack Grienke should not be an underdog tonight at Dodger Stadium. He loves pitching off that mound - check career at Dodger Stadium and the Diamondbacks are in better form as well as I'm not a Maeda fan and Roberts isn't doing him any favors yo-yo-ing him from starter to reliever to starter in first 10 days of season.

I don't think Zack felt the Dodgers tried hard enough to keep him after his amazing season for LA and I think he pitches with a chip on his shoulder when he returns and you are getting the better pitcher and team in better form for plus money.

I can't find an underdog in the first round that is coming close to ringing the chimes, and part of the issue is the nature of the markets. At playoff time there are folks that will take a stab with some of the big underdogs for a long-shot payout, but the general marketplace finds bankroll difficulties in backing the favorites. Hence a lot of these prices get shortened a bit from what the true realities are. I believe there will be opportunities in the game-by-game flow, but I don't hear a "bark" yet.

There will be a small piece of Atlanta in pocket, because the Cubs are simply being over-priced - this is not an imposing lineup. But only small because of the number of sliders Yu Darvish has been throwing, going from 16.8% in 2016 to 24.6% in 2017, and now 36.7 through his first two starts. I put this from Wilson Contreras into the files, which lets me know to watch more closely:

“He had three types of sliders. One to get ahead, the other was to get a second strike and then one to punch out."

Arizona will go into pocket at +120 or better, another case of the outcomes for a pitcher not reflecting his pitches - Greinke is carrying an 0-1/5.06 through 2 starts despite commanding his various pitches as well as he ever has, with the current rates in K%, BB% and SWS% all career-bests. Perhaps some folks are alarmed by some pop missing from his fastball, but the changing of speeds and location of his other offerings has been impeccable.

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The Cardinals face the Reds in Cincinnati this evening. Luke Weaver takes the mound for the Cardinals. I am very curious what your thoughts on him are thus far? He is quickly becoming one of my favorite young pitchers. He was great towards the end of last year and has picked up where he left off to start 2018. He has been stellar in his first 2 starts of the season. With the Reds off to a horrrible 2-10 start, the current price is around the -140 price point on the Cardinals, do you see any value on the Cards this evening? The Reds were crushed last night so might the bullpen be a little worn out? Mahle is a good young talent but I don't see him going the distance tonight. The Reds bullpen has the 2nd highest ERA in the league and they are giving up the 3rd most walks in the league as well. Seems like a fair price even though the Cards are on the road. Would appreciate your thoughts. Have a great weekend. Thank you for your time.

The Cardinals face the Reds in Cincinnati this evening. Luke Weaver takes the mound for the Cardinals. I am very curious what your thoughts on him are thus far? He is quickly becoming one of my favorite young pitchers. He was great towards the end of last year and has picked up where he left off to start 2018. He has been stellar in his first 2 starts of the season. With the Reds off to a horrrible 2-10 start, the current price is around the -140 price point on the Cardinals, do you see any value on the Cards this evening? The Reds were crushed last night so might the bullpen be a little worn out? Mahle is a good young talent but I don't see him going the distance tonight. The Reds bullpen has the 2nd highest ERA in the league and they are giving up the 3rd most walks in the league as well. Seems like a fair price even though the Cards are on the road. Would appreciate your thoughts. Have a great weekend. Thank you for your time.

Weaver is already showing that he can be a 3-pitch guy, his change-up at 25.4% and curveball at 20.1% so far this season, and the gap in speeds brings a dynamic tool, that change-up spaced in between the fast-ball and the curve. Let's put the two seasons together to show the consistency, and add weight to the 2018 sample:

Fastball

Changeup

Curve

2017

93.4

84.6

79.7

2018

93.8

85.5

81.6

If he commands the strike zone with all 3 pitches that is going to force hitters to have to guess at times, especially when behind in the count. Unfortunately his success is being absorbed by the markets, as is the ineptitude of the Reds, so value may not last long (Pinny is up to -151 already for this evening), but I believe your processes are in the right direction. It is going to be another difficult season for Bryan Price to have to handle this pitching staff - the Reds were one of only two teams that had their bullpen work over 600 innings LY (the Marlins being the other), and they may be forcing guys like Mahle into The Show a bit early (only 59.1 innings at AAA).

Always a stop you in your tracks humbling kinda tune when sometimes the lights all shining on me when other times I can barely see and what a long strange trip it was, my first time seeing “Slippin” live as older spreadheads call it, was my first trip away from home my senior year in high school on a New Years Run in the Phillips Arena where the Hawks nest up in downtown Atlanta, Georgia ( side note: just recently visited the college football hall of fame down the road from there in December seeing Dead and Co and what a truly fulfilled day it was leading up to the show as I was literally in there for a few hours roaming around stone cold busted by the heat for smiling on a cloudy day as I was a kid in the candyshop surrounded by the offerings of the holy grail in the South, Saturday’s in the fall, if any readers have a special passion for college football as a southern boy like me and especially the history it contains, It is very very highly recommended ) but if you are getting older like me don’t try and kick that 20 yard field goal as I pulled a hami and couldn’t quite dance as much as I would have liked when it was showtime that night).. on to the cynicism of the Nba mention in the opening paragraph, thought I would share this as people ask me today what is some things you learned while you spent some years living in Las Vegas. My absolute favorite sport moving across the country was the NBA. After a year of getting my thumbprint wet on the betting boards ( shoutout Owsley Bear kids) my least favorite sport was the NBA. The cliche saying is the NBA stands for No Betting Allowed but I like to say it means No Betting Advantages. Now I know this is not true but for a rookie like me just trying to catch lightning in a bottle there is some truth to that in the regular season grind. So Slippin in the Darkness is a perfect match tune for the game when it contains some of the most wicked meltdown beats and complete total randomness of teams taking nights off . But even for amateur sports bettors like me there is light that slips into the darkness of the NBA game, and that my friends is the PLAYOFFS, being patient and pouncing on that opportunity of that MoneyWithTheCash spot in a series which most on this forum are already conscious of these days, because trusting a 13 point lightning bolt as it also Zig-Zags always has stayed true to me. Go Knights Go and good luck to all this weekend As the gears really transition into higher definitions on the ice, on the hardwoods, and of course the short grasses. Let’s also all hope Embid returns to play with that mask on because what a movie it could potentially be for the greater illy Willy Philly area wrapping up two ships already and the final battle with a Greek figure from the west who contains a euro step and a beard and a true believer hero for trusting the process with a mask on with the entire city on his back and his rookie of the year.

Always a stop you in your tracks humbling kinda tune when sometimes the lights all shining on me when other times I can barely see and what a long strange trip it was, my first time seeing “Slippin” live as older spreadheads call it, was my first trip away from home my senior year in high school on a New Years Run in the Phillips Arena where the Hawks nest up in downtown Atlanta, Georgia ( side note: just recently visited the college football hall of fame down the road from there in December seeing Dead and Co and what a truly fulfilled day it was leading up to the show as I was literally in there for a few hours roaming around stone cold busted by the heat for smiling on a cloudy day as I was a kid in the candyshop surrounded by the offerings of the holy grail in the South, Saturday’s in the fall, if any readers have a special passion for college football as a southern boy like me and especially the history it contains, It is very very highly recommended ) but if you are getting older like me don’t try and kick that 20 yard field goal as I pulled a hami and couldn’t quite dance as much as I would have liked when it was showtime that night).. on to the cynicism of the Nba mention in the opening paragraph, thought I would share this as people ask me today what is some things you learned while you spent some years living in Las Vegas. My absolute favorite sport moving across the country was the NBA. After a year of getting my thumbprint wet on the betting boards ( shoutout Owsley Bear kids) my least favorite sport was the NBA. The cliche saying is the NBA stands for No Betting Allowed but I like to say it means No Betting Advantages. Now I know this is not true but for a rookie like me just trying to catch lightning in a bottle there is some truth to that in the regular season grind. So Slippin in the Darkness is a perfect match tune for the game when it contains some of the most wicked meltdown beats and complete total randomness of teams taking nights off . But even for amateur sports bettors like me there is light that slips into the darkness of the NBA game, and that my friends is the PLAYOFFS, being patient and pouncing on that opportunity of that MoneyWithTheCash spot in a series which most on this forum are already conscious of these days, because trusting a 13 point lightning bolt as it also Zig-Zags always has stayed true to me. Go Knights Go and good luck to all this weekend As the gears really transition into higher definitions on the ice, on the hardwoods, and of course the short grasses. Let’s also all hope Embid returns to play with that mask on because what a movie it could potentially be for the greater illy Willy Philly area wrapping up two ships already and the final battle with a Greek figure from the west who contains a euro step and a beard and a true believer hero for trusting the process with a mask on with the entire city on his back and his rookie of the year.

A terrific read, except for one missing detail - did you make the kick?

Hey Dave great posts every day, I’m in Philly and I’ve been inspired to join the discussion based on you Trusting the Process. 52 wins was a lot but a wise man did tell us this could happen: "What we look at is, how do we add to what we're doing in a way that gets us closer to our goal? We don't think that it will necessarily be linear — that every year you will add five wins and after 10 years you will get to 50. That's not the way we think about the world. We think that it comes at fits and starts, and you have to be prepared to put yourself in a position that you might be able to make big leaps." -Sam Hinkie

What people may not see if they aren’t here is just how great this team’s chemistry is. These guys are best friends and that’s what makes this team so much fun, and so dangerous even to a team that has Lebron James, but none of that chemistry. With regards to the pace with Embiid out, I don’t think a slower game will hurt the 6ers offensive pace. The way Embiid runs the floor especially getting back/chasing down on defense (he wants DPOY award), it seems like the opposition slowing down, reluctant to attack the basket with him patrolling the paint or coming from behind and the 6ers still able to run off of misses. One thing I wonder about when talking about pace, is Simmons’ FT shooting. Brett Brown is NOT going to take him out of games, he’s almost always the inbounds man in fouling situations, but I feel like Miami has to win ugly and a Simmons parade to the FT line might be one of the Heat’s paths to victory. I wonder if’s this isn’t the kind of coach matchup that will lead to less scoring as the series wears on, unless the 6ers hot shooting continues, in which case it will be over fast. Any thoughts?

Looks like some movement pushing the utah/okc game total up to 206. Hold tight and wait for more or grab under 206 now?

Looking at Portland/norl makes me question the leadership. While the talent levels are fairly similar on both sides, Portland in my view has a far superior wining mentality from the coach to the players

I think it's safe to say that Terry stotts is far superior to that of Alvin gentry. Not to say that gentry is incompetent just inferior in comparison

Both teams have been cohesive as a unit this season but where the pelicans are just starting to find familiarity on their roles, Portland has been practicing team chemistry with the same group for over 2 seasons now

As good as guys like davis, McCollum and Lillard are from a talent perspective I believe Lillard's leadership will be on full display along with everything he has been working so hard towards up to this point in his career. Everyone has bought in on Portland starting with Lillard, I just can't see the pelicans winning this series short of a major injury

A terrific read, except for one missing detail - did you make the kick?

The first one I hooked left like a Jim Furyk teeshot on the back nine of contention , the second was a screaming Kyle Schwarber line drive missile homer that snuck in over the right corner of crossbar by inches, I was so pumped up and turned around and asked the employee “ a lot of people make this man?!?” He replied like clockwork, “ yeah dude, all the time”.. spirits still filled , regardless , it was back into the streets of Atlanta as walking around exploring wasn’t as mobile but still got the opportunity to dance at the show so the game was the game, same as it ever was.

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Hey Dave great posts every day, I’m in Philly and I’ve been inspired to join the discussion based on you Trusting the Process. 52 wins was a lot but a wise man did tell us this could happen: "What we look at is, how do we add to what we're doing in a way that gets us closer to our goal? We don't think that it will necessarily be linear — that every year you will add five wins and after 10 years you will get to 50. That's not the way we think about the world. We think that it comes at fits and starts, and you have to be prepared to put yourself in a position that you might be able to make big leaps." -Sam Hinkie

What people may not see if they aren’t here is just how great this team’s chemistry is. These guys are best friends and that’s what makes this team so much fun, and so dangerous even to a team that has Lebron James, but none of that chemistry. With regards to the pace with Embiid out, I don’t think a slower game will hurt the 6ers offensive pace. The way Embiid runs the floor especially getting back/chasing down on defense (he wants DPOY award), it seems like the opposition slowing down, reluctant to attack the basket with him patrolling the paint or coming from behind and the 6ers still able to run off of misses. One thing I wonder about when talking about pace, is Simmons’ FT shooting. Brett Brown is NOT going to take him out of games, he’s almost always the inbounds man in fouling situations, but I feel like Miami has to win ugly and a Simmons parade to the FT line might be one of the Heat’s paths to victory. I wonder if’s this isn’t the kind of coach matchup that will lead to less scoring as the series wears on, unless the 6ers hot shooting continues, in which case it will be over fast. Any thoughts?

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Erik Spoelstra went to "Hack-a-Ben" at some point - he uses most of the available tricks, and what he has done in these last two back-to-back seasons with the Heat is a tribute to that, cobbling winning records out of an assortment of oddball pieces. But that does take us to the usual conundrum when it comes to that strategy - while it is an attempt to lessen he prospects of an opponent scoring by getting a weak shooter to the line, it also adds possessions (folks might remember a Lakers/Pistons Under ticket that lost for those very reasons not too long ago), because those fouls tend to come early in the shot clock.

Looks like some movement pushing the utah/okc game total up to 206. Hold tight and wait for more or grab under 206 now?

Looking at Portland/norl makes me question the leadership. While the talent levels are fairly similar on both sides, Portland in my view has a far superior wining mentality from the coach to the players

I think it's safe to say that Terry stotts is far superior to that of Alvin gentry. Not to say that gentry is incompetent just inferior in comparison

Both teams have been cohesive as a unit this season but where the pelicans are just starting to find familiarity on their roles, Portland has been practicing team chemistry with the same group for over 2 seasons now

As good as guys like davis, McCollum and Lillard are from a talent perspective I believe Lillard's leadership will be on full display along with everything he has been working so hard towards up to this point in his career. Everyone has bought in on Portland starting with Lillard, I just can't see the pelicans winning this series short of a major injury

I have started to play at 206.5, not believing that it can get to 207, and folks in Nevada can still find of those available for decent limits at the Westgate now.

I concur in Pelicans/Blazers. While no one is going to stop Anthony Davis, Terry Stotts can throw a lot of different bodies at him to create a little wear and tear, and from a strategy standpoint not only is New Orleans limited by the number of available bodies, but also Alvin Gentry's game-day acumen. I was hoping to be able to lay -200 as a series price but have not seen one; perhaps a little market push might take place to open that up.

Poor chris Tillman. One inning 28 pitches, 3 hits and a walk all four guys score. what is he doing in a MLB rotation. More importantly what is Baltimore thinking? Surely they are somewhat aware of what Dave has written about

Poor chris Tillman. One inning 28 pitches, 3 hits and a walk all four guys score. what is he doing in a MLB rotation. More importantly what is Baltimore thinking? Surely they are somewhat aware of what Dave has written about

If Mike Wright had thrown better against the Yankees on Sunday, Tillman might not have received another opportunity. But Alex Cobb is ready to go now, which eliminates one of them (they chose to skip Wright on this pass); now let's see what they do the next time through. But at this stage all Tillman can really do is nibble corners and hope that contact finds gloves - he is now up to 10 walks vs. only 3 strikeouts, without any real ability to zip something through the strike zone that a better will miss.

Looks to be a nice scheduling spot for game one from the GS perspective...Dubs last played Tuesday while the Spurs played in NO late Wednesday, flew back to SA then out to Oak/SF today (based on report from Dubs radio network) and have an early Noon local time start tomorrow.

Of the 8 first round series - I believe not all 8 favorites will win. I wonder which underdogs you give the best chance of pulling an upset. Indiana seemed to create issues for the Cavs during the regular season and the Cavs inability to get defensive stops makes this year the most challenging for LeBron to return to the NBA Finals for the 9th (!) straight year.

I thought maybe some Pelicans, but not sure how they have been doing it - except for having one of the 5 best players on the planet. Is there an underdog we can really watch with a chance - throwing it out to the group as well as the Prof as to which of the 8 series will the favorite not win?

This afternoon, something you taught me is compelling me to wager a small ticket on the Atlanta Braves. Baseball being baseball and the Braves are actually playing pretty well - a good lineup and although Anibel Sanchez can be batting practice - he is currently in ok form and should not be a -200 underdog to a Cubs teams that took it's licks vs Pittsburgh and is missing it's big stick in the middle Anthony Rizzo.

2-1 odds, I may just play the first five or split my ticket, but Sanchez hasn't fallen down the rabbit hole yet (he will later) and the Braves are currently bashing the ball during the day. Check the splits.

Also Zack Grienke should not be an underdog tonight at Dodger Stadium. He loves pitching off that mound - check career at Dodger Stadium and the Diamondbacks are in better form as well as I'm not a Maeda fan and Roberts isn't doing him any favors yo-yo-ing him from starter to reliever to starter in first 10 days of season.

I don't think Zack felt the Dodgers tried hard enough to keep him after his amazing season for LA and I think he pitches with a chip on his shoulder when he returns and you are getting the better pitcher and team in better form for plus money.

MLB's tv channel just showed that Grienke has an ERA of 7.56 in his three starts at L.A. since joining Arizona.

MLB's tv channel just showed that Grienke has an ERA of 7.56 in his three starts at L.A. since joining Arizona.

FWIW, Greinke is a career 29-7/2.27 in 50 starts from this mound, with one more strikeout (321) than hits + walks combined (320). That includes all games with whatever teams he happened to be playing on at the time.

FWIW, Greinke is a career 29-7/2.27 in 50 starts from this mound, with one more strikeout (321) than hits + walks combined (320). That includes all games with whatever teams he happened to be playing on at the time.

Solid counterpoint - plus I like that Greinke suffered from a sociative disorder that made it difficult to pitch in front of large crowds for a portion of his career. I will take Greinke as my ace anywhere.

Solid counterpoint - plus I like that Greinke suffered from a sociative disorder that made it difficult to pitch in front of large crowds for a portion of his career. I will take Greinke as my ace anywhere.

I have some great friends in Milwaukee. The Greinke disorder somehow became less of a factor when he was with the Brewers, including going 25-9 in personal decisions. We have long wondered what that means about the city, or perhaps even the state...

I have some great friends in Milwaukee. The Greinke disorder somehow became less of a factor when he was with the Brewers, including going 25-9 in personal decisions. We have long wondered what that means about the city, or perhaps even the state...

You did not, could not, put on trial the memory of al, hank, and the entire 82 Brewer squad.

I have some great friends in Milwaukee. The Greinke disorder somehow became less of a factor when he was with the Brewers, including going 25-9 in personal decisions. We have long wondered what that means about the city, or perhaps even the state...

Grabbed Celtics -155 to win the series.
Still lots of talent, albeit up-and-coming players in Boston, and the Bucks have not impressed me at all. Add in home court and the much better coach and I feel good about my investment.

Would have much preferred Utah if they got home court. Will look to find opportunities with the Jazz during the series.

You know how much torture it is trying to sit still, and type when a groove like this is rocking!!!!!!

When musicians stroll through Memphis golfnuttwizers, they like to slap on that extra bar-ba-on-cue sauceee for the ones that rolled out the blue carpet before them summoning the Holy Ghost from the battlefield , they feel all the good flow from the mighty Mississippi and want to get down & funky and slang a little extra mud for our gritty grinding folks down in the Bluff city . Now let’s get up and groove this Dechambeau future home this weekend Unc!

The Archer story was laid out as the lead here on Monday, so you can refer there for more details, but the bottom line is one of a guy that impresses the Fantasy markets because of his electric strikeout rates, but is sitting on a 20-31/4.12 over the past three seasons, the problem remaining the lack of a third pitch to go with his fast-ball slider combination. And it is a negative sign through the early part of 2018 that his usage of a changeup sits at 5.7 percent. Without confidence and command in that pitch, Archer’s ceiling is far lower than the way he gets priced.

Meanwhile Arrieta’s career arc is past-peak and declining, velocity having been lost from a fast-ball that was once 95.1, but was down to 92.6 in 2017, and just 91.4 in his 2018 debut. Without that setting up other pitches swings and misses have become less frequent, and let’s use FIP and SWS% as indicators of decline:

FIP

SWS%

2015

2.35

11.1

2016

3.52

10.5

2017

4.16

8.7

2018

5.30

6.8

Yes, there is the caution of it being early-days in his new Philadelphia uniform, but sensing a logic that can get one ahead of the markets is a big part of what this endeavor is about. And part of that logic is why I use FIP above, because the bottom line run-prevention of Arrieta has been attached to defense in the past, and will become more attached as the strikeouts decline. What must be appreciated about his recent run is what it meant to have the Cubs behind him, and let’s use team defense BABIP as something that may be the preface to why his 2018 ERA may not match the past:

ARRIETA

CHIC

PHI

2015

.246

.287

.316

2016

.241

.255

.304

2017

.279

.285

.304

If we use FIP as the guide, Arrieta benefitted by more than a half run of ERA per nine innings across those last three seasons because of the Cubs defense. Had he thrown the same pitches with the Phillies, who were below league average in each of those campaigns, it would have been a far different story. That is not showing up in the price points, which is something that leaves market opportunity.

There will be propsects for runs in the latter innings as well, both bullpens having hiccups so far that may be who they are for the long-term, and not just the short early returns – the Phillies are #23 in K/BB ratio and the Rays #24. The only way to lose this ticket is for one of the teams to be held to two runs or less, which could be salvaged by a breakout from the other offense anyway, which makes this value point a fair target for aim.

Hey Professor Dave,
I believe the New Orleans/ Portland series is more even than what people may think...I have Game One power rated Portland -4... what are your thoughts on that series and on the game 1 matchup...?
I remember something you posted and said last year when Boston played the Chicago Bulls you talked about the Rajon Rondo effect and how Dwyane Wade even said he almost despises playing against him because he was so good at studying film and knew what you were going to do on offense and defense and the Bulls won the first two games in Boston last year then he got injured and they lost four straight... What are your thoughts on the Rondo effect that may not be calculated into the point spread?