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Charts I’m Watching: Oct 9, 2012

I’m still traveling, so today’s post will be brief. Yesterday’s short-term outlook is still intact. We broke the pink channel line, which means our initial target of 1449-1452 is in play (the top of the red channel and the white channel midline.) Look for a back test of the pink channel first.

I’d recommend lowering stops on our short position to around 1458 — depending on how closely you can watch it. The more important issue is whether SPX can remain below the lower bound of the pink channel.

The dollar and the EURUSD are both testing very important levels, so downside risk is very high at the moment. Equity bulls need the red channel top to hold.

Several of you have asked about the new analog. Today is the day, even if I have to deliver it in installments. There’s a good chance I can post it by 10:45 EDT; if not, it’ll be after the close. I’ll put out an email when it’s live.

UPDATE: 10:30 AM

I know some of you are watching AAPL closely. The 621-625 level is critical to AAPL. It should provide a rebound. But, if it fails, the next support is at 600 or 585 — at which point it would have lost a majorchannel.

If the channel holds, especially if AAPL closes above 618, then the Crab Pattern to the 1.618 at 719 is still very much on the table.

UPDATE: EOD

SPX broke both the pink and purple channels today. We’ll see if the yellow channel holds (currently around 1430 at #4.) If so, the decline will also be limited to the red channel midline and SPX’s rally will still be intact. If the yellow channel fails, look for a drop to the white channel bottom (#5) around 1413-1415.

AAPL respected the Fibonacci bounds we placed on it, reaching within 2 pts of the support we mentioned earlier this morning before reversing