The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

These animated nuthatches roam about in small flocks in longleaf pine forests—a habitat at risk even without the threat of climate change. Audubon's climate model for this species highlights one of the biggest challenges for anticipating the effects of climate change, namely, the decoupling of summer and winter ranges. The Brown-headed Nuthatch is non-migratory, adapted for yearlong residence in its favored habitat. But the model shows divergent climate trajectories, with a substantial increase of suitable climate space in winter and a near-collapse of such climate space in summer. Unfortunately, any gains in winter survivorship will be wiped out by sharp summertime losses in productivity.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.