Space Report Touts Tech, Tiptoes Around Military Uses

A rocket blasts off from the launch pad at the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in Sichuan province on Dec. 20. Photo by ChinaFotoPress via Getty images.

By Matt Durnin

Since China shocked the world by obliterating one of its aging weather satellites with a missile in 2007, it has struggled to reassure other countries of its peaceful intentions in space.

That’s the background to a State Council white paper, released on Thursday, that reveals ambitious plans for space exploration over the next five years. As a follow-up to the last such report in 2006, it is partly meant to allay foreign concerns that China’s space program is driven by military calculations.

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Among the highlights: an unmanned moon mission that will return lunar soil samples; new space labs; and a home-grown satellite navigation system. These developments will be accompanied by a rapid launch pace with 100 satellites planned for orbit.

Though the tone of the report is celebratory, it’s clear that China realizes that its rapid ascent as a space power requires explanation to outsiders. Military analysts feared that China’s missile strike on its own satellite was the initial shot in a space arms race. Foreign governments fumed over the thousands of pieces of debris created that will threaten spacecraft for generations.

The report falls far short of a mea culpa for the 2007 debacle (the event isn’t mentioned directly), but it seems to attempt some belated damage control. It reaffirms China’s commitment to the peaceful use of space and mentions its plans to help reduce and monitor space debris. Without elaborating, the report states that China will “build a system to protect spacecraft from space debris.”

If China’s space plans come to fruition—and its track record over the last decade puts the odds in its favor—it will possess one of the world’s most robust and diverse space systems, many with military applications. This will be an uncomfortable outcome for those who regard China’s space advances with suspicion.

Yet there is also reason to hope that a spacefaring China will be a stabilizing development. As it becomes more dependent on space, China also has greater incentive to adhere to the rules of the road and to play a positive role in shaping international norms for the final frontier.

The latest white paper tiptoes around the defense applications of China’s space program. The closest it comes to discussing China’s military assets in space is the inclusion of “national security” in the list of purposes for the space program. The technologies mentioned are only discussed in a civilian context, but several of these new capabilities have important consequences on the battlefield as well.

Rockets – To date, the sizes of Chinese satellites have been limited by the relatively weak vehicles that ferry them to space. The Long March-5 rocket, which is slated to enter service in the next five years, will be able to carry a 25-ton payload to lower earth orbit—more than double the capacity of any Chinese rocket currently available. More launch horsepower means that, among other things, China can build larger, higher-resolution reconnaissance satellites.

Also high on the People’s Liberation Army’s wish list are electronic intelligence satellites to monitor and track communication and radar signatures from geosynchronous orbit—a special orbital track 35,000 km from earth that allows persistent coverage of an area on earth. China is currently limited to putting relatively light communication satellites in this orbit.

The report also discusses the Long March-6 rocket, which is designed as a “high-speed response launch vehicle” able to shoot lighter payloads into orbit on short notice. This could allow China to ramp up satellite reconnaissance capabilities following a natural disaster or in the lead up to a potential conflict.

Reconnaissance – The white paper also sheds a flicker of light on a recent uptick in Chinese satellites. The report states that, “In 2010, China formally initiated the development of an important special project – a high-resolution Earth observation system.” Three satellites launched in the last two months are thought to contribute to military reconnaissance and a fourth is expected in January.

Navigation – Following the mantra that real armies don’t stop to ask for directions, China has been developing its own version of the U.S. Global Positioning System. The PLA rightly believes that the United States would degrade or block GPS signals in the event of a conflict. Instead of casting its lot in with the competing systems being built by the EU and Russia, China has struck out on its own. Its Beidou system is scheduled to be functional for the Asia-Pacific region by 2012, and then globally once the last of the 35 satellites are launched in 2020. A satellite positioning system is integral to military operations and particularly important to guidance systems in China’s growing missile force.

Matt Durnin is a Beijing-based researcher at the World Security Institute’s China Program and associate editor of the policy journal China Security. He specializes in China’s defense modernization and space programs.

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