Warrington WILL benefit from HS2 - campaigners argue

SUPPORTERS of High Speed Two say Warrington will not miss out on the new service which is being proposed.

Council chief executive Steven Broomhead said there was ‘little to benefit’ Warrington in the current plans while this week Helen Jones MP said the scheme has not been thought through properly.

Residents in Culcheth, Glazebrook and Lymm are all worried about the Manchester extension ripping up their countryside.

But David Thrower, a supporter of HS2, planner and Stockton Heath resident, said Warrington will not miss out.

He added: “Although the new route burrows beneath Crewe station and then, after a junction near the M56, swings north eastwards to Manchester another extension reaches northwards and extends up to near Wigan.

“Connecting lines at Crewe and at Wigan will enable the planned supertrains to leave the new line and join the existing West Coast Main Line.

“And that’s the important bit for many north west residents.

Because these through trains, after coming from the south at 225mph, will then be able to continue at a lower speed on existing tracks, to serve many other key centres.

“For example, Warrington Bank Quay will involve just 15 minutes’ travel over existing lines after leaving the new line south of Crewe, which will mean the town will see journey times from the South cut by half an hour.”

Supporters say the extension, due to happen around 2035, will see 60,000 jobs created and pump £44billion into the economy.

Susan Williams, director of the North West Rail Campaign, said: “This is fantastic news for the north west. Connectivity will be crucial in growing our economy, connecting people with jobs and cities with each other.”

Comments (39)

The problem with the argument is that the business case for HS2 is fundamentally flawed. It will cost the country more than the economic benefits it achieves because it is based on incorrect assumptions, most importantly that nobody works on trains so that time saving are justified. And this is based on current costs, before we even get into the inevitable cost overruns and delays.

It's a political project, not an economic one.

The problem with the argument is that the business case for HS2 is fundamentally flawed. It will cost the country more than the economic benefits it achieves because it is based on incorrect assumptions, most importantly that nobody works on trains so that time saving are justified. And this is based on current costs, before we even get into the inevitable cost overruns and delays.
It's a political project, not an economic one.grey_man

The scheme is not financially viable, less so considering our current parlous financial state. If you disbelieve me examine the impact of HS1 on the boroughs through which it runs in the south of England. Look at the impact on the local railway networks, where costs have risen in order to fund HS1, and which on which passenger capacity is still at third of that forecast.
When virtually every other aspect of our lives has to be subject to severe budgetary controls "to bring us back into some where approaching solvency", why is a mad hair brained scheme estimated at £32 billion, but almost certainly three times that eventually, heralded as the panacea to our national recovery? The payback time will merely prolong the recovery. For a fraction of the officially estimated cost of HS2 cost a very high speed internet system could be installed throughout the country. This would feed direct to the offices and homes of Warrington and actually bring some tangible return almost as soon as it was installed. It would also not be dependent upon the majority of users being in the £81,000pa salary bracket, we would all benefit.

The scheme is not financially viable, less so considering our current parlous financial state. If you disbelieve me examine the impact of HS1 on the boroughs through which it runs in the south of England. Look at the impact on the local railway networks, where costs have risen in order to fund HS1, and which on which passenger capacity is still at third of that forecast.
When virtually every other aspect of our lives has to be subject to severe budgetary controls "to bring us back into some where approaching solvency", why is a mad hair brained scheme estimated at £32 billion, but almost certainly three times that eventually, heralded as the panacea to our national recovery? The payback time will merely prolong the recovery. For a fraction of the officially estimated cost of HS2 cost a very high speed internet system could be installed throughout the country. This would feed direct to the offices and homes of Warrington and actually bring some tangible return almost as soon as it was installed. It would also not be dependent upon the majority of users being in the £81,000pa salary bracket, we would all benefit.Karlar

It would seem that when it comes to High Speed Rail, frightening levels of ignorance are commonplace.

FACT: HS1 cost approx £6bn - it came in on time and more or less on budget against the original contract price (£5.8bn) - to date it has delivered a return of £2.1bn in hard cash (for the sale of a renewable 30 year leasehold) + a bare minimum of £10bn in measureable econcomic benefits - that's a 2:1 ratio payback, so hardly an economic failure
FACT: the WCML is the busiest mixed traffic rail artery in Western Europe - between London and Birmingham it is already fast reaching capacity - by capacity this means available pathways - the rate of passenger demand increase has been relentless for the last ten years at least - the only way to create new pathways for additional capacity is a NEW line so the argument comes down to where you site that NEW line
FACT: the forecast headline budget for HS2 amounts to a per annum spend of under £2bn, for 17 years. Network Rail recently announced a package of much needed upgrades to the existing rail network, amounting to £37bn for the 2014-19 control period - or a spend in excess of £5bn per annum - so we are upgrading the existing network and spending much more pro-rata on it, compared with High Speed Rail
FACT: The UK has had broadband connectivity for the last decade and rail passenger travel has increased concurrently during that period - South Korea boasts the fastest broadband speeds in the world, so why is South Korea also investing heavily in High Speed Rail networks?
FACT: more than 31 million passenger journeys were undertaken on the WCML last year - it is that mature (and increasing year on year) market that HS2 will serve - HS2 will be an economic success story for the UK, delivering untold long term benefits far in excess of its cost, for the next 50 - 100 years.
FACT: only a tiny fraction of HS2's budget is allocated to the present Parliamentary period - if HS2 cannot be afforded, neither can CrossRail, consuming right now (during this period of austerity and public service cutbacks), the very same £2bn per annum spend committed (from 2016 onwards) to HS2
FACT: Basic ecnomics informs us that when you increase the supply side of a basic supply / demand equation, average prices will fall - HS2 will massively increase the supply of available seats, so far from being a rich man's preserve, HS2 is very likely to drive average fares down, distributing the benefits of cheaper rail travel to a much wider section of the UK public

It would seem that when it comes to High Speed Rail, frightening levels of ignorance are commonplace.
FACT: HS1 cost approx £6bn - it came in on time and more or less on budget against the original contract price (£5.8bn) - to date it has delivered a return of £2.1bn in hard cash (for the sale of a renewable 30 year leasehold) + a bare minimum of £10bn in measureable econcomic benefits - that's a 2:1 ratio payback, so hardly an economic failure
FACT: the WCML is the busiest mixed traffic rail artery in Western Europe - between London and Birmingham it is already fast reaching capacity - by capacity this means available pathways - the rate of passenger demand increase has been relentless for the last ten years at least - the only way to create new pathways for additional capacity is a NEW line so the argument comes down to where you site that NEW line
FACT: the forecast headline budget for HS2 amounts to a per annum spend of under £2bn, for 17 years. Network Rail recently announced a package of much needed upgrades to the existing rail network, amounting to £37bn for the 2014-19 control period - or a spend in excess of £5bn per annum - so we are upgrading the existing network and spending much more pro-rata on it, compared with High Speed Rail
FACT: The UK has had broadband connectivity for the last decade and rail passenger travel has increased concurrently during that period - South Korea boasts the fastest broadband speeds in the world, so why is South Korea also investing heavily in High Speed Rail networks?
FACT: more than 31 million passenger journeys were undertaken on the WCML last year - it is that mature (and increasing year on year) market that HS2 will serve - HS2 will be an economic success story for the UK, delivering untold long term benefits far in excess of its cost, for the next 50 - 100 years.
FACT: only a tiny fraction of HS2's budget is allocated to the present Parliamentary period - if HS2 cannot be afforded, neither can CrossRail, consuming right now (during this period of austerity and public service cutbacks), the very same £2bn per annum spend committed (from 2016 onwards) to HS2
FACT: Basic ecnomics informs us that when you increase the supply side of a basic supply / demand equation, average prices will fall - HS2 will massively increase the supply of available seats, so far from being a rich man's preserve, HS2 is very likely to drive average fares down, distributing the benefits of cheaper rail travel to a much wider section of the UK publicpadav

FACT : I've been travelling from Warrington to London weekly for the past 17 years and I see no evidence of increased passenger numbers. There were 4 people in the carriage in which I returned home last Friday evening (not an unusual occurrence).The packed trains are largely the off peak services in whose number HS2 have seemingly little or no interest.

FACT : I've been travelling from Warrington to London weekly for the past 17 years and I see no evidence of increased passenger numbers. There were 4 people in the carriage in which I returned home last Friday evening (not an unusual occurrence).The packed trains are largely the off peak services in whose number HS2 have seemingly little or no interest.Dr Beeching

@Dr Beeching - thanks for your entirely anecdotal piece of evidence. Can I suggest a trip to Euston Station forecourt, sometime around 18:45 - you'll find a mob waiting to board the first post 19:00 northbound trains

@Jagman1 - please look up the keyword phrase "Classic Compatible" on the HS2Ltd website (or others for that matter). These are hybrid trainsets, designed to run on both new European gauge high speed lines and the existing UK gauge rail network (and transfer seamlessly between them).

@Dr Beeching - thanks for your entirely anecdotal piece of evidence. Can I suggest a trip to Euston Station forecourt, sometime around 18:45 - you'll find a mob waiting to board the first post 19:00 northbound trains
@Jagman1 - please look up the keyword phrase "Classic Compatible" on the HS2Ltd website (or others for that matter). These are hybrid trainsets, designed to run on both new European gauge high speed lines and the existing UK gauge rail network (and transfer seamlessly between them).padav

Interesting terminology you use Padav. A "mob" - in other words clientele awaiting the first off peak service. HS2 must already be shelling out a fortune on lobbyists scanning the local websites to input their "made up facts of the day".

Interesting terminology you use Padav. A "mob" - in other words clientele awaiting the first off peak service. HS2 must already be shelling out a fortune on lobbyists scanning the local websites to input their "made up facts of the day".Dr Beeching

@Dr Beeching
Yawn! - please try another strategy - you display the same lazy, but all too predictable response - anybody speaking up on behalf of this long overdue project must be in the pay of some vested interest, they must do surely - NO, actually I'm just an ordinary person who has taken the time to inform themselves about the pros and cons of this project and can readily perceive the massive benefits it will deliver for UK plc and for my Region (NW.England) in particular.

I DON'T work in the rail industry and I have no direct or indirect benefit to gain from HS2, save being an enthusiastic future user of the services it will facilitate.

Now, instead of trying to discredit a messenger bearing inconvenient truths, perhaps it might be more constructive to engage with the substantive issues I have raised?

@Dr Beeching
Yawn! - please try another strategy - you display the same lazy, but all too predictable response - anybody speaking up on behalf of this long overdue project must be in the pay of some vested interest, they must do surely - NO, actually I'm just an ordinary person who has taken the time to inform themselves about the pros and cons of this project and can readily perceive the massive benefits it will deliver for UK plc and for my Region (NW.England) in particular.
I DON'T work in the rail industry and I have no direct or indirect benefit to gain from HS2, save being an enthusiastic future user of the services it will facilitate.
Now, instead of trying to discredit a messenger bearing inconvenient truths, perhaps it might be more constructive to engage with the substantive issues I have raised?padav

Council chief executive Steven Broomhead said there was ‘little to benefit’ Warrington in the current plans while this week Helen Jones MP said the scheme has not been thought through properly. ...

But David Thrower is happy his garden in stockton heath isnt being grabbed by the HS2 development, He said Warrington will not miss out,

But it doesnt gain anything other than half an hour journey time. Its a total waste of money that we havnt got, I do note however that the EU isnt contributing anything to it,
Taxpayers money being spent on this could have been spent on better projects.

Council chief executive Steven Broomhead said there was ‘little to benefit’ Warrington in the current plans while this week Helen Jones MP said the scheme has not been thought through properly. ...
But David Thrower is happy his garden in stockton heath isnt being grabbed by the HS2 development, He said Warrington will not miss out,
But it doesnt gain anything other than half an hour journey time. Its a total waste of money that we havnt got, I do note however that the EU isnt contributing anything to it,
Taxpayers money being spent on this could have been spent on better projects.old-codger

We Need To Stop HS2
No Business Case
No Environmental Case
No Money To Pay For It

Why do we need to destroy the landscape, get into more debt and run over people’s lives just to save 30 minute journey time or even one hour.

We have modern technology for business people to keep their business going while they are travelling by train using laptops, smart phones and ipads.

We need to upgrade current rolling stock and service giving people time to think about the business meeting they are heading for or the city they are visiting. What’s the rush?

STOP THE RUSH
We Need To Stop HS2
No Business Case
No Environmental Case
No Money To Pay For It
Why do we need to destroy the landscape, get into more debt and run over people’s lives just to save 30 minute journey time or even one hour.
We have modern technology for business people to keep their business going while they are travelling by train using laptops, smart phones and ipads.
We need to upgrade current rolling stock and service giving people time to think about the business meeting they are heading for or the city they are visiting. What’s the rush?Geoff Siddall

padav wrote:
It would seem that when it comes to High Speed Rail, frightening levels of ignorance are commonplace.

FACT: HS1 cost approx £6bn - it came in on time and more or less on budget against the original contract price (£5.8bn) - to date it has delivered a return of £2.1bn in hard cash (for the sale of a renewable 30 year leasehold) + a bare minimum of £10bn in measureable econcomic benefits - that's a 2:1 ratio payback, so hardly an economic failure
FACT: the WCML is the busiest mixed traffic rail artery in Western Europe - between London and Birmingham it is already fast reaching capacity - by capacity this means available pathways - the rate of passenger demand increase has been relentless for the last ten years at least - the only way to create new pathways for additional capacity is a NEW line so the argument comes down to where you site that NEW line
FACT: the forecast headline budget for HS2 amounts to a per annum spend of under £2bn, for 17 years. Network Rail recently announced a package of much needed upgrades to the existing rail network, amounting to £37bn for the 2014-19 control period - or a spend in excess of £5bn per annum - so we are upgrading the existing network and spending much more pro-rata on it, compared with High Speed Rail
FACT: The UK has had broadband connectivity for the last decade and rail passenger travel has increased concurrently during that period - South Korea boasts the fastest broadband speeds in the world, so why is South Korea also investing heavily in High Speed Rail networks?
FACT: more than 31 million passenger journeys were undertaken on the WCML last year - it is that mature (and increasing year on year) market that HS2 will serve - HS2 will be an economic success story for the UK, delivering untold long term benefits far in excess of its cost, for the next 50 - 100 years.
FACT: only a tiny fraction of HS2's budget is allocated to the present Parliamentary period - if HS2 cannot be afforded, neither can CrossRail, consuming right now (during this period of austerity and public service cutbacks), the very same £2bn per annum spend committed (from 2016 onwards) to HS2
FACT: Basic ecnomics informs us that when you increase the supply side of a basic supply / demand equation, average prices will fall - HS2 will massively increase the supply of available seats, so far from being a rich man's preserve, HS2 is very likely to drive average fares down, distributing the benefits of cheaper rail travel to a much wider section of the UK public

FACT: Basic ecnomics informs us that when you increase the supply side of a basic supply / demand equation, average prices will fall.

We have not seen this basic supply / demand equation on the current rail system. The demand is there as you see lots of fare paying passengers standing because they cannot find a seat yet train prices are going up and up and up.

[quote][p][bold]padav[/bold] wrote:
It would seem that when it comes to High Speed Rail, frightening levels of ignorance are commonplace.
FACT: HS1 cost approx £6bn - it came in on time and more or less on budget against the original contract price (£5.8bn) - to date it has delivered a return of £2.1bn in hard cash (for the sale of a renewable 30 year leasehold) + a bare minimum of £10bn in measureable econcomic benefits - that's a 2:1 ratio payback, so hardly an economic failure
FACT: the WCML is the busiest mixed traffic rail artery in Western Europe - between London and Birmingham it is already fast reaching capacity - by capacity this means available pathways - the rate of passenger demand increase has been relentless for the last ten years at least - the only way to create new pathways for additional capacity is a NEW line so the argument comes down to where you site that NEW line
FACT: the forecast headline budget for HS2 amounts to a per annum spend of under £2bn, for 17 years. Network Rail recently announced a package of much needed upgrades to the existing rail network, amounting to £37bn for the 2014-19 control period - or a spend in excess of £5bn per annum - so we are upgrading the existing network and spending much more pro-rata on it, compared with High Speed Rail
FACT: The UK has had broadband connectivity for the last decade and rail passenger travel has increased concurrently during that period - South Korea boasts the fastest broadband speeds in the world, so why is South Korea also investing heavily in High Speed Rail networks?
FACT: more than 31 million passenger journeys were undertaken on the WCML last year - it is that mature (and increasing year on year) market that HS2 will serve - HS2 will be an economic success story for the UK, delivering untold long term benefits far in excess of its cost, for the next 50 - 100 years.
FACT: only a tiny fraction of HS2's budget is allocated to the present Parliamentary period - if HS2 cannot be afforded, neither can CrossRail, consuming right now (during this period of austerity and public service cutbacks), the very same £2bn per annum spend committed (from 2016 onwards) to HS2
FACT: Basic ecnomics informs us that when you increase the supply side of a basic supply / demand equation, average prices will fall - HS2 will massively increase the supply of available seats, so far from being a rich man's preserve, HS2 is very likely to drive average fares down, distributing the benefits of cheaper rail travel to a much wider section of the UK public[/p][/quote]FACT: Basic ecnomics informs us that when you increase the supply side of a basic supply / demand equation, average prices will fall.
We have not seen this basic supply / demand equation on the current rail system. The demand is there as you see lots of fare paying passengers standing because they cannot find a seat yet train prices are going up and up and up.Geoff Siddall

Some benefits will be realised sooner than people think. Estate agents in Lymm (****-Chelsea) are already mentioning that due to Lymm's proximity to the proposed airport station this will become a London commuter suburb (look at the SE where people travel similar journey times from places like Canturbury, Folkstone etc to London daily) house prices and rents will go up. So that will bring financial benefit to some - does it cancel out the loss (compensated?) to some in other areas, who can say - at the end of the day a house is worth what the buyer pays, not what the estate agent thinks....

It is a bold vision with a great degree of variability on the parameters involved, only time will tell the truth as to whether the numbers stack up. HS1 is supposed to be bringing in net benefits, Frances TGV is supposedly subsidised, the Americans don't even think about high speed rail despite their NE city belt being ideal (3-4hrs conventional travel Washington - NY), China just gets on with it.

Guess as Warrington will receive both benefits (which individuals may notice or be less tangible) and negative effects (which will be very noticeable to those affected) they'l always be two polarised camps on these issues.

Some benefits will be realised sooner than people think. Estate agents in Lymm (****-Chelsea) are already mentioning that due to Lymm's proximity to the proposed airport station this will become a London commuter suburb (look at the SE where people travel similar journey times from places like Canturbury, Folkstone etc to London daily) house prices and rents will go up. So that will bring financial benefit to some - does it cancel out the loss (compensated?) to some in other areas, who can say - at the end of the day a house is worth what the buyer pays, not what the estate agent thinks....
It is a bold vision with a great degree of variability on the parameters involved, only time will tell the truth as to whether the numbers stack up. HS1 is supposed to be bringing in net benefits, Frances TGV is supposedly subsidised, the Americans don't even think about high speed rail despite their NE city belt being ideal (3-4hrs conventional travel Washington - NY), China just gets on with it.
Guess as Warrington will receive both benefits (which individuals may notice or be less tangible) and negative effects (which will be very noticeable to those affected) they'l always be two polarised camps on these issues.Stan Tonks

Padav, I dont need to read anything to tell me that outlay of £30bn + to get me to work 20 minutes earlier is a total waste of money especially when the infrastructure of our country as a whole is crumbling around us. How much is being spent on road upgrades/repair, sea defences, flood protection etc over the period as that proposed for the completion of HS2 ? You dismiss my anecdotal evidence of weekly observations on the WCML but if the planners had bothered to ask the views of the regular travellers rather than rely on manipulated statistics for their models we would be looking at a totally different proposition for sure.

Padav, I dont need to read anything to tell me that outlay of £30bn + to get me to work 20 minutes earlier is a total waste of money especially when the infrastructure of our country as a whole is crumbling around us. How much is being spent on road upgrades/repair, sea defences, flood protection etc over the period as that proposed for the completion of HS2 ? You dismiss my anecdotal evidence of weekly observations on the WCML but if the planners had bothered to ask the views of the regular travellers rather than rely on manipulated statistics for their models we would be looking at a totally different proposition for sure.Dr Beeching

Apart from anything else I think padav needs a lesson in both economics and recent history of the railroads. There is no pressure to reduce prices in a structurally flawed monopoly. Hence why if I was asked to meet with a potential client in London tomorrow, the standard fare I would pay at peak times to get there and back is £289. If I was to travel with a couple of colleagues, we'd be better off hiring a car and driver to take us there for the day.

HS2 will not reduce these fares. Nor does its business case stack up when you realise that travelling on a train doesn't stop people working. That is the key flaw in the figures the Government cooked up to force this scheme through.

DR Beeching
Apart from anything else I think padav needs a lesson in both economics and recent history of the railroads. There is no pressure to reduce prices in a structurally flawed monopoly. Hence why if I was asked to meet with a potential client in London tomorrow, the standard fare I would pay at peak times to get there and back is £289. If I was to travel with a couple of colleagues, we'd be better off hiring a car and driver to take us there for the day.
HS2 will not reduce these fares. Nor does its business case stack up when you realise that travelling on a train doesn't stop people working. That is the key flaw in the figures the Government cooked up to force this scheme through.grey_man

I think the answer is that it sort of is, probably. The trains will run on the existing track at normal speeds then join the high speed track at Crewe / Wigan depending on if you're going North or South.

[quote][p][bold]LJ[/bold] wrote:
Can I ask, what may be a very immature question?
How will it help Warrington if it isn't going to stop here?[/p][/quote]I think the answer is that it sort of is, probably. The trains will run on the existing track at normal speeds then join the high speed track at Crewe / Wigan depending on if you're going North or South.grey_man

Well said Dr Beeching and others! Padav thinks he has all the FACTs and considers any objector a paid lackey of some underground organisation. Who’s going to pay us, Padav? I think you would find that we are mostly concerned citizens who do not wish to see the best of our countryside and many peoples’ lives ruined because they are in the path of a juggernaut.
Padav, the fact is that DfT/HS2 Ltd so overload the system with “facts” that it is impossible to get at the truth.
If you look at DfT plans for the North West, only Manchester will have a fantastic service. Every town / city to the west or south down to Birmingham will be in a worse position or only slightly better off. That includes Warrington. See for yourself on: https://www.gov.uk/g
overnment/uploads/sy
stem/uploads/attachm
ent_data/file/69743/
updated-economic-cas
e-for-hs2-_august-20
12_-explanation-of-t
he-service-patterns.
pdf
“Updated economic case for HS2 (August 2012): Explanation of the service patterns.
January 2013”
Their original Phase 2 plan did not even include a single HS train call at Warrington!

Well said Dr Beeching and others! Padav thinks he has all the FACTs and considers any objector a paid lackey of some underground organisation. Who’s going to pay us, Padav? I think you would find that we are mostly concerned citizens who do not wish to see the best of our countryside and many peoples’ lives ruined because they are in the path of a juggernaut.
Padav, the fact is that DfT/HS2 Ltd so overload the system with “facts” that it is impossible to get at the truth.
If you look at DfT plans for the North West, only Manchester will have a fantastic service. Every town / city to the west or south down to Birmingham will be in a worse position or only slightly better off. That includes Warrington. See for yourself on: https://www.gov.uk/g
overnment/uploads/sy
stem/uploads/attachm
ent_data/file/69743/
updated-economic-cas
e-for-hs2-_august-20
12_-explanation-of-t
he-service-patterns.
pdf
“Updated economic case for HS2 (August 2012): Explanation of the service patterns.
January 2013”
Their original Phase 2 plan did not even include a single HS train call at Warrington!HighSpeedDrain

@Geoff Siddall: "We have not seen this basic supply / demand equation on the current rail system. The demand is there as you see lots of fare paying passengers standing because they cannot find a seat yet train prices are going up and up and up."

errrrr.......that's the point isn't it - demand on the CURRENT (your description) rail system exceeds supply in certain key areas - that's why operators within the supply side can charge a higher average market rate.

HS2 massively increases the supply of seats - approximately 14trains per hour with up to 1000 seats per train - that's an awful lot more on the supply side - yes, demand is increasing year on year but HS2 is designed to soak up all that extra demand and then some, leading to overall average prices falling - that's the basic rationale underpinning HS2

@Geoff Siddall: "We have not seen this basic supply / demand equation on the current rail system. The demand is there as you see lots of fare paying passengers standing because they cannot find a seat yet train prices are going up and up and up."
errrrr.......that's the point isn't it - demand on the CURRENT (your description) rail system exceeds supply in certain key areas - that's why operators within the supply side can charge a higher average market rate.
HS2 massively increases the supply of seats - approximately 14trains per hour with up to 1000 seats per train - that's an awful lot more on the supply side - yes, demand is increasing year on year but HS2 is designed to soak up all that extra demand and then some, leading to overall average prices falling - that's the basic rationale underpinning HS2padav

One thing you got wrong - TGV services in France are highly profitable - approx €1bn per annum - those profits are used to subsidise loss making services elsewhere on the SNCF classic line network

@Stan Tonks
Many thanks for your considered response.
One thing you got wrong - TGV services in France are highly profitable - approx €1bn per annum - those profits are used to subsidise loss making services elsewhere on the SNCF classic line networkpadav

@Dr Beeching: "I dont need to read anything to tell me that outlay of £30bn + to get me to work 20 minutes earlier is a total waste of money especially when the infrastructure of our country as a whole is crumbling around us."

The fact that you describe the complexity of HS2 and the manner in which it will deliver a myriad of benefits rather gives the game away regarding your pre-conceived, ill-informed and fixed mindset on this topic.

I can tell you that £37bn of capital expenditure has already been committed to a five (2014-19) year programme of works on the existing classic line network - that's a pro-rata per annum rate in excess of £7bn - or more than 3 times the annual rate allocated to HS2 for its 17 year construction period (2016-33)

That's the point you just don't want to see (with your blinkers on?) - long term trends point to relentless increases in demand for railborne travel - which has to be met somehow and when it comes to the ECML and WCML, we already know that upgrading the exisiting line is either impractical or a waste of taxpayer funding so a new line has been determined (after a lot of consideration and planning) as the best long term way forward - that means someone, somewhere is negatively impacted - the disadvantages inflicted upon a very small minority are far outweighed by the benefits flowing to the many.

@Dr Beeching: "I dont need to read anything to tell me that outlay of £30bn + to get me to work 20 minutes earlier is a total waste of money especially when the infrastructure of our country as a whole is crumbling around us."
The fact that you describe the complexity of HS2 and the manner in which it will deliver a myriad of benefits rather gives the game away regarding your pre-conceived, ill-informed and fixed mindset on this topic.
I can tell you that £37bn of capital expenditure has already been committed to a five (2014-19) year programme of works on the existing classic line network - that's a pro-rata per annum rate in excess of £7bn - or more than 3 times the annual rate allocated to HS2 for its 17 year construction period (2016-33)
That's the point you just don't want to see (with your blinkers on?) - long term trends point to relentless increases in demand for railborne travel - which has to be met somehow and when it comes to the ECML and WCML, we already know that upgrading the exisiting line is either impractical or a waste of taxpayer funding so a new line has been determined (after a lot of consideration and planning) as the best long term way forward - that means someone, somewhere is negatively impacted - the disadvantages inflicted upon a very small minority are far outweighed by the benefits flowing to the many.padav

One thing you got wrong - TGV services in France are highly profitable - approx €1bn per annum - those profits are used to subsidise loss making services elsewhere on the SNCF classic line network

It was only after 16 years of loss making operation, TVG only managed to operate profitably by adopting the seat booking arrangements of the budget airlines. Its busness case was not predicated on the majority of users having minimum salary levels of £81,000 pa. Using Ryan Airways low-cost high seat take principles the average cost of a TVG ticket from Paris to Marseille (485 miles?) is £22. No matter how much is ploughed back into network rail by HS2, if it ever is, I don't see tickets for Manchester to London (185 miles?) ever approaching that level do you?

[quote][p][bold]padav[/bold] wrote:
@Stan Tonks
Many thanks for your considered response.
One thing you got wrong - TGV services in France are highly profitable - approx €1bn per annum - those profits are used to subsidise loss making services elsewhere on the SNCF classic line network[/p][/quote]It was only after 16 years of loss making operation, TVG only managed to operate profitably by adopting the seat booking arrangements of the budget airlines. Its busness case was not predicated on the majority of users having minimum salary levels of £81,000 pa. Using Ryan Airways low-cost high seat take principles the average cost of a TVG ticket from Paris to Marseille (485 miles?) is £22. No matter how much is ploughed back into network rail by HS2, if it ever is, I don't see tickets for Manchester to London (185 miles?) ever approaching that level do you?Karlar

It doe,nt help Warrington at all unless you change at crewe and get an early connection in order to save 20 minutes,
The present system works fine with no changes, Takes 20 minutes longer but is a site cheaper than what this HS2 is going to charge.

LJ says...
12:38pm Thu 14 Feb 13
Can I ask, what may be a very immature question?
How will it help Warrington if it isn't going to stop here?”
...................
It doe,nt help Warrington at all unless you change at crewe and get an early connection in order to save 20 minutes,
The present system works fine with no changes, Takes 20 minutes longer but is a site cheaper than what this HS2 is going to charge.old-codger

It doe,nt help Warrington at all unless you change at crewe and get an early connection in order to save 20 minutes,
The present system works fine with no changes, Takes 20 minutes longer but is a site cheaper than what this HS2 is going to charge.

That's what I thought

[quote][p][bold]old-codger[/bold] wrote:
LJ says...
12:38pm Thu 14 Feb 13
Can I ask, what may be a very immature question?
How will it help Warrington if it isn't going to stop here?”
...................
It doe,nt help Warrington at all unless you change at crewe and get an early connection in order to save 20 minutes,
The present system works fine with no changes, Takes 20 minutes longer but is a site cheaper than what this HS2 is going to charge.[/p][/quote]That's what I thoughtLJ

Padav, You seem to exclude the word "affordable" from any of your posts in relation to this fantastic service we have in prospect. The "mob" (as you described them) waiting at Euston for the off peak services are not, with respect, the sort of clientele HS2 are targetting. It will be mugs such as myself who have to travel for work at peak times and who would rather not pay anymore for a service which offers nothing appreciably more than we have at present. It would appear that you are prepared to see the rest of the country fall into a state of delapidation for the sake of this over-hyped White Elephant. If this misguided project goes ahead what are the chances that it will be delivered on time and within budget ? I think we all know the answer to that one. If in any doubt padav it's sponsored by a Government who couldn't handle a straightforward bidding process on the WCML.

Padav, You seem to exclude the word "affordable" from any of your posts in relation to this fantastic service we have in prospect. The "mob" (as you described them) waiting at Euston for the off peak services are not, with respect, the sort of clientele HS2 are targetting. It will be mugs such as myself who have to travel for work at peak times and who would rather not pay anymore for a service which offers nothing appreciably more than we have at present. It would appear that you are prepared to see the rest of the country fall into a state of delapidation for the sake of this over-hyped White Elephant. If this misguided project goes ahead what are the chances that it will be delivered on time and within budget ? I think we all know the answer to that one. If in any doubt padav it's sponsored by a Government who couldn't handle a straightforward bidding process on the WCML.Dr Beeching

padav wrote:
@Geoff Siddall: &quot;We have not seen this basic supply / demand equation on the current rail system. The demand is there as you see lots of fare paying passengers standing because they cannot find a seat yet train prices are going up and up and up."

errrrr.......that's the point isn't it - demand on the CURRENT (your description) rail system exceeds supply in certain key areas - that's why operators within the supply side can charge a higher average market rate.

HS2 massively increases the supply of seats - approximately 14trains per hour with up to 1000 seats per train - that's an awful lot more on the supply side - yes, demand is increasing year on year but HS2 is designed to soak up all that extra demand and then some, leading to overall average prices falling - that's the basic rationale underpinning HS2

Thats the point they should not over charge, they should provide more seats.ie put on more or longer trains. or at least stop letting passengers get on when the train is full.

[quote][p][bold]padav[/bold] wrote:
@Geoff Siddall: "We have not seen this basic supply / demand equation on the current rail system. The demand is there as you see lots of fare paying passengers standing because they cannot find a seat yet train prices are going up and up and up."
errrrr.......that's the point isn't it - demand on the CURRENT (your description) rail system exceeds supply in certain key areas - that's why operators within the supply side can charge a higher average market rate.
HS2 massively increases the supply of seats - approximately 14trains per hour with up to 1000 seats per train - that's an awful lot more on the supply side - yes, demand is increasing year on year but HS2 is designed to soak up all that extra demand and then some, leading to overall average prices falling - that's the basic rationale underpinning HS2[/p][/quote]Thats the point they should not over charge, they should provide more seats.ie put on more or longer trains. or at least stop letting passengers get on when the train is full.Geoff Siddall

One thing you got wrong - TGV services in France are highly profitable - approx €1bn per annum - those profits are used to subsidise loss making services elsewhere on the SNCF classic line network

But SNCF is still owned by the government. The privatisation of UK rail services means that none of the overage will be refunded in any way to the tax payer through partial funding, but would go some way to fund the private companies that now operate the rail services. Good to see that HS2 will help the fat cats get more money despite substandard services which have created the need for HS2 in the first place.

[quote][p][bold]padav[/bold] wrote:
@Stan Tonks
Many thanks for your considered response.
One thing you got wrong - TGV services in France are highly profitable - approx €1bn per annum - those profits are used to subsidise loss making services elsewhere on the SNCF classic line network[/p][/quote]But SNCF is still owned by the government. The privatisation of UK rail services means that none of the overage will be refunded in any way to the tax payer through partial funding, but would go some way to fund the private companies that now operate the rail services. Good to see that HS2 will help the fat cats get more money despite substandard services which have created the need for HS2 in the first place.HappyMisery

@Karlar: "I don't see tickets for Manchester to London (185 miles?) ever approaching that level do you?"

I'm not going to predict actual ticket prices, twenty years out because I'm not in the fortune telling business - what I will confidently predict is that overall average ticket prices on the West Coast rail corridor will fall, relative to inflation, in a post-HS2 environment.

Price is a function of supply and demand - massively increase supply and average prices fall - that's a ineluctable reality, no matter how hard you try to use present day circumstances to distort matters and avoid this economic maxim.

@Karlar: "I don't see tickets for Manchester to London (185 miles?) ever approaching that level do you?"
I'm not going to predict actual ticket prices, twenty years out because I'm not in the fortune telling business - what I will confidently predict is that overall average ticket prices on the West Coast rail corridor will fall, relative to inflation, in a post-HS2 environment.
Price is a function of supply and demand - massively increase supply and average prices fall - that's a ineluctable reality, no matter how hard you try to use present day circumstances to distort matters and avoid this economic maxim.padav

@Geoff Siddall: "Thats the point they should not over charge, they should provide more seats.ie put on more or longer trains. or at least stop letting passengers get on when the train is full"

OK - I'll try once again to explain

Your solution to higher average prices is; "put on more or longer trains" presumably to provide more seats, ie. more supply

There is nothing wrong with your logic but think about your solution for a moment

a) Trains HAVE BEEN lengthened already - 11 carriage Pendolino trainsets (they were 9 carriages) have been brought into service at peak times - ironically this short term strategy resulted in a slight year on year reduction in seat usage (extra carriages created more seats) at peak times - a statistical anomaly immediately siezed upon by anti HS2 campaingers as evidence of falling demand when in fact it was no such thing - but remember you can only lengthen trains so much, due to the fact that train servicing facilities are only so big and platforms so long

b) Where are you going to put your EXTRA trains on the WCML because the track is effectively full (between Birmingham and London), in terms of train pathways - the logical answer of course is that you have to provide a NEW traintrack for your EXTRA services to run on!

Now, @Geoff Siddall, here comes the punchline

Please explain where precisely you plan to put that NEW train track?

@Geoff Siddall: "Thats the point they should not over charge, they should provide more seats.ie put on more or longer trains. or at least stop letting passengers get on when the train is full"
OK - I'll try once again to explain
Your solution to higher average prices is; "put on more or longer trains" presumably to provide more seats, ie. more supply
There is nothing wrong with your logic but think about your solution for a moment
a) Trains HAVE BEEN lengthened already - 11 carriage Pendolino trainsets (they were 9 carriages) have been brought into service at peak times - ironically this short term strategy resulted in a slight year on year reduction in seat usage (extra carriages created more seats) at peak times - a statistical anomaly immediately siezed upon by anti HS2 campaingers as evidence of falling demand when in fact it was no such thing - but remember you can only lengthen trains so much, due to the fact that train servicing facilities are only so big and platforms so long
b) Where are you going to put your EXTRA trains on the WCML because the track is effectively full (between Birmingham and London), in terms of train pathways - the logical answer of course is that you have to provide a NEW traintrack for your EXTRA services to run on!
Now, @Geoff Siddall, here comes the punchline
Please explain where precisely you plan to put that NEW train track?padav

Padev, Unless I travel off peak, I cant recall the last time I saw a train from Warrington to London even remotely full. In fact, last Friday evening there were 10 people in two of the carriages I went through on the 17.57hrs service out of Euston.

You really must be a gullible sort if you swallow these Govt-sponsored reports. Remember the new Scottish Parliament building ? Intial estimate £10m - £40m versus actual cost of £414m. Furthermore, Crossrail costs are now starting to spiral with work stopped in places. Now, what do you think the real cost of HS2 will be ?

Padev, Unless I travel off peak, I cant recall the last time I saw a train from Warrington to London even remotely full. In fact, last Friday evening there were 10 people in two of the carriages I went through on the 17.57hrs service out of Euston.
You really must be a gullible sort if you swallow these Govt-sponsored reports. Remember the new Scottish Parliament building ? Intial estimate £10m - £40m versus actual cost of £414m. Furthermore, Crossrail costs are now starting to spiral with work stopped in places. Now, what do you think the real cost of HS2 will be ?Dr Beeching

In order to consider what the future will hold you have to consider the past. In the context of countless other government cost predictions. The example of the Scottish parliament, already cited, is one among many. Remember how North Sea Oil and the Gas were going to lower our fuel bills across the country? Rail privatization was also going to result in lower fares!! They forgot to tell us rail companies would be bailed out and we would have to pay. Remember how nuclear energy was going to reduce our fuel bills at a stroke? We are now paying France for nuclear generated electricity at prices which have a coal dispensation surcharge. There are too many other examples of suck and see economics that give a lie to your fare falling prediction. A casual thumb through MoD files and those of most Ministries show our national bean counters - on whose ability you base your predictions - ineluctably shows they are several beans short of a complete abacus. The business case for HS2 is inherently flawed and can only be supported if you use the questionable logic of politicians, who change the rules and move the goal posts to suit the answer they want and ignore the facts.

In order to consider what the future will hold you have to consider the past. In the context of countless other government cost predictions. The example of the Scottish parliament, already cited, is one among many. Remember how North Sea Oil and the Gas were going to lower our fuel bills across the country? Rail privatization was also going to result in lower fares!! They forgot to tell us rail companies would be bailed out and we would have to pay. Remember how nuclear energy was going to reduce our fuel bills at a stroke? We are now paying France for nuclear generated electricity at prices which have a coal dispensation surcharge. There are too many other examples of suck and see economics that give a lie to your fare falling prediction. A casual thumb through MoD files and those of most Ministries show our national bean counters - on whose ability you base your predictions - ineluctably shows they are several beans short of a complete abacus. The business case for HS2 is inherently flawed and can only be supported if you use the questionable logic of politicians, who change the rules and move the goal posts to suit the answer they want and ignore the facts.Karlar

padav wrote:
@Karlar: &quot;I don't see tickets for Manchester to London (185 miles?) ever approaching that level do you?"

I'm not going to predict actual ticket prices, twenty years out because I'm not in the fortune telling business - what I will confidently predict is that overall average ticket prices on the West Coast rail corridor will fall, relative to inflation, in a post-HS2 environment.

Price is a function of supply and demand - massively increase supply and average prices fall - that's a ineluctable reality, no matter how hard you try to use present day circumstances to distort matters and avoid this economic maxim.

In order to consider what the future will hold you have to consider the past. In the context of countless other government cost predictions. The example of the Scottish parliament, already cited, is one among many. Remember how North Sea Oil and the Gas were going to lower our fuel bills across the country? Rail privatization was also going to result in lower fares!! They forgot to tell us rail companies would be bailed out and we would have to pay. Remember how nuclear energy was going to reduce our fuel bills at a stroke? We are now paying France for nuclear generated electricity at prices which have a coal dispensation surcharge. There are too many other examples of suck and see economics that give a lie to your fare falling prediction. A casual thumb through MoD files and those of most Ministries show our national bean counters - on whose ability you base your predictions - ineluctably shows they are several beans short of a complete abacus. The business case for HS2 is inherently flawed and can only be supported if you use the questionable logic of politicians, who change the rules and move the goal posts to suit the answer they want and ignore the facts.

[quote][p][bold]padav[/bold] wrote:
@Karlar: "I don't see tickets for Manchester to London (185 miles?) ever approaching that level do you?"
I'm not going to predict actual ticket prices, twenty years out because I'm not in the fortune telling business - what I will confidently predict is that overall average ticket prices on the West Coast rail corridor will fall, relative to inflation, in a post-HS2 environment.
Price is a function of supply and demand - massively increase supply and average prices fall - that's a ineluctable reality, no matter how hard you try to use present day circumstances to distort matters and avoid this economic maxim.[/p][/quote]In order to consider what the future will hold you have to consider the past. In the context of countless other government cost predictions. The example of the Scottish parliament, already cited, is one among many. Remember how North Sea Oil and the Gas were going to lower our fuel bills across the country? Rail privatization was also going to result in lower fares!! They forgot to tell us rail companies would be bailed out and we would have to pay. Remember how nuclear energy was going to reduce our fuel bills at a stroke? We are now paying France for nuclear generated electricity at prices which have a coal dispensation surcharge. There are too many other examples of suck and see economics that give a lie to your fare falling prediction. A casual thumb through MoD files and those of most Ministries show our national bean counters - on whose ability you base your predictions - ineluctably shows they are several beans short of a complete abacus. The business case for HS2 is inherently flawed and can only be supported if you use the questionable logic of politicians, who change the rules and move the goal posts to suit the answer they want and ignore the facts.Karlar