Why El Nino is not going to form this year

NOAA says they have never seen a season were an El nino did not form and stayed form. There yet be one this year, NOAA is confused.

Duhhh

When Icebergs the size of the state of Rhode Island break off Anarctica and the Bearing Sea does NOT ice up to the point that even ships go now where they have never gone before because the Ice is either NOT there or is thiner than ever before.

What does NOAA not get that the water is COLDER and LESS salty due to the amount of cold fresh water moisture being place in it?? An El Nino needs warm water no?

No NOAA has their head where sun don't shine or they KNOW the change is Permanent or getting that way fast and do NOT want to alarm the gen public, the weather is changing Permanently and sea water levels are rising Permanently at least for your and my life span. Here in NC NCSU water scientists think the entire Eastern Shore Nags head for example will be under water in 15-20 years.

Weather/climate has never been "permanent". Ever hear about the "Little Ice Age"? "Maunder Minimum"? "Roman warm period", and many, many other changes over the last 4.5 billion years? Visit: http://wattsupwiththat.com/ .

Weather/climate has never been "permanent". Ever hear about the "Little Ice Age"? "Maunder Minimum"? "Roman warm period", and many, many other changes over the last 4.5 billion years? Visit: http://wattsupwiththat.com/ .

Click to expand...

Ja Gunny but "permanent" say over the next 60 years or more. Yup heard about "little Ice age" the others no. Guess I am wondering what is causing our current "long term" changes and how long is it going to reduce food production via heat and lack of rain and snow in traditional grain growing areas. I am not saying the "green" folk are right. But "something" is making major changes that will effect our and world economies IMO,

And the UK Meteorlogical service posted a report and graphs with ACTUAL number, not the tweaked NOAA numbers showing global warming ended 16 years ago. There were the normal range of yearly fluxuations, but no upwards trend.

Then I don't "get it" Why are the ice caps and Ice sheet near BOTH poles shrinking and NOT replacing the ice that melted?? The 16 yr calc might be related to the earth's orbit being nearer to the sun at that time then receeding- it of course is elliptical not circular.

Ja Gunny but "permanent" say over the next 60 years or more. Yup heard about "little Ice age" the others no. Guess I am wondering what is causing our current "long term" changes and how long is it going to reduce food production via heat and lack of rain and snow in traditional grain growing areas. I am not saying the "green" folk are right. But "something" is making major changes that will effect our and world economies IMO,

Click to expand...

The "something" you refer to is called a Non-linear Dynamic System. In common parlance; chaotic behavior, aka Chaos theory. Not the one played with in the Jurassic Park movie, but the real high level mathematical kind.

The planet/solar system is simply far too complex and the weather/climate computer models far too simplistic for anyone to predict what things might look like dozens or hundreds of years in future. It's stupendous arrogance on the part of those who think they can.

The "something" you refer to is called a Non-linear Dynamic System. In common parlance; chaotic behavior, aka Chaos theory. Not the one played with in the Jurassic Park movie, but the real high level mathematical kind.

The planet/solar system is simply far too complex and the weather/climate computer models far too simplistic for anyone to predict what things might look like dozens or hundreds of years in future. It's stupendous arrogance on the part of those who think they can.

Click to expand...

Now THAT makes sense. We are developing computers that have the computing power but not the software algorithims to accurately project. Yeah makes sense.

Then I don't "get it" Why are the ice caps and Ice sheet near BOTH poles shrinking and NOT replacing the ice that melted?? The 16 yr calc might be related to the earth's orbit being nearer to the sun at that time then receeding- it of course is elliptical not circular.

Thanks Gunny interesting data- I add it to my favorites list. I know the farmers here in NE NC are happy campers this fall peanuts and corn are the highest price per unit in awhile. Probably due to the "drought" in the west and central US.

I just wonder how much grain speculators use weather projection to minpulate grain prices

The last time we witnessed temperatures anything like that was in the decade 1690 – 1700. Crop failures caused by cold killed off 10% of the populations of France, Norway and Sweden, 20% of the population of Estonia and one third of the population of Finland.

Blame it on General Motors or Peabody Coal Company if you want to but the sun has been waxing and waning for 5 billion years give or take a few weeks and will continue to do so making us hot and cold in turn. Nothing we can do about that. I'm more worried about clean air and water and that we can do something about.

I remember when I was a kid they told us we were headed for a new ice age. It was getting colder every year. Now its getting hotter every year. This is all bull. They don't have a clue. It's all to make money. More ways to waste our tax dollars.