Week 17 xG Match Up Rankings

With unlimited transfers this season, match ups are more important than ever. The question is how to evaluate match ups, especially if you’re only an aspiring Armchair Analyst and not yet the real thing. The answer? Expected Goals (xG).

What are expected goals (xG)

The idea behind xG is simple. Every shot is awarded a probability of scoring based on the position on the field and the game situation, based on giant databases of shots from years and years of data. Then at the end of the game all the xGs from the individual shots are added up to generate the team’s xG for that game. This metric is a useful measure of the teams overall attacking or defending play, more so than just looking at how many goals a team has scored or allowed. If you’d like to learn more, there’s a nice video by MLS to explain further:

How to use these rankings

The rankings below use the xG metric to rank the match ups each week to help you determine which teams you should try to choose your attackers or defenders from. Each teams score is an average of their xG/g and their opponent’s xG/g separated out into offense/defense and home/away match ups. For example, if Atlanta plays NYCFC at home. Atlanta has an average home xG/g is 1.62 and NYCFC’s has an average away xG/g allowed is 0.96 for an offensive xG score of 1.29 xG. The reverse can be done to calculate their defensive score for this week. The game by game xG numbers are taken from Ben Baer’s weekly xG article.

Week 17 Offense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Offense: Match up calculated using season xG average.

Form Offense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games.

Week 22 Rank

Team

Opponent

H/A

Season OFF

Form OFF

1

Chicago Fire

NER

H

1.55

2.27

2

San Jose Earthquakes

CLB

H

1.48

1.78

3

NY Red Bulls

NYCFC

A

1.17

2

4

NYCFC

NYRB

H

1.56

1.5

5

Colorado Rapids

VAN

H

1.35

1.61

6

Montreal Impact

OCSC

H

1.38

1.57

7

Portland Timbers

LAG

H

1.59

1.32

8

Sporting Kansas City

ATL

H

1.59

1.3

9

Houston Dynamo

RSL

A

1.23

1.54

10

Toronto

DCU

A

1.37

1.39

11

RSL

HOU

H

1.4

1.31

12

Seattle Sounders

MIN

A

1.21

1.36

13

Philadelphia Union

FCD

H

1.31

1.21

14

Minnesota United

SEA

H

1.37

1.06

15

LA Galaxy

POR

A

1.1

1.32

16

FC Dallas

PHI

A

1.26

1.1

17

Vancouver Whitecaps FC

COL

A

1.03

1.23

18

DC United

TOR

H

1.16

1.05

19

Orlando City

MTL

A

1.04

1.09

20

Columbus Crew

SJE

A

1.02

1.04

21

Atlanta United

SKC

A

0.94

1.09

22

NE Revolution

CHI

A

0.89

0.68

Week 17 Defense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Defense: Match up calculated using season xG average.

Form Defense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games.

Week 22 Rank

Team

Opponent

H/A

Season DEF

Form DEF

1

Chicago Fire

NER

H

0.89

0.68

2

Sporting Kansas City

ATL

H

0.94

1.09

3

San Jose Earthquakes

CLB

H

1.02

1.04

4

Montreal Impact

OCSC

H

1.04

1.09

5

Toronto

DCU

A

1.16

1.05

6

Colorado Rapids

VAN

H

1.03

1.23

7

Philadelphia Union

FCD

H

1.26

1.1

8

Portland Timbers

LAG

H

1.1

1.32

9

Seattle Sounders

MIN

A

1.37

1.06

10

FC Dallas

PHI

A

1.31

1.21

11

Minnesota United

SEA

H

1.21

1.36

12

Houston Dynamo

RSL

A

1.4

1.31

13

DC United

TOR

H

1.37

1.39

14

RSL

HOU

H

1.23

1.54

15

Atlanta United

SKC

A

1.59

1.3

16

LA Galaxy

POR

A

1.59

1.32

17

Orlando City

MTL

A

1.38

1.57

18

Vancouver Whitecaps FC

COL

A

1.35

1.61

19

NY Red Bulls

NYCFC

A

1.56

1.5

20

NYCFC

NYRB

H

1.17

2

21

Columbus Crew

SJE

A

1.48

1.78

22

NE Revolution

CHI

A

1.55

2.27

Week 17 DGW Offense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Offense: Match up calculated using season xG average, average of two games this week.

Form Offense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games, average of two games this week.

Week 20 Rank

Team

OFF

1

NYCFC

1.59

2

Portland Timbers

1.5725

3

Seattle Sounders

1.44

4

NY Red Bulls

1.425

5

Minnesota United

1.405

6

LA Galaxy

1.365

7

Houston Dynamo

1.2925

8

Toronto

1.225

9

Montreal Impact

1.21

10

Vancouver Whitecaps FC

1.1825

11

DC United

1.105

12

RSL

1.085

13

Philadelphia Union

0.955

14

San Jose Earthquakes

0.945

Week 17 DGW Defense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Defense: Match up calculated using season xG average, average of two games this week.

Form Defense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games, average of two games this week.

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