Oh, you crazy, crazy Pro Bowl betting odds. First you made me think the
AFC was favored by 1.5 points in Sunday’s exhibition game (7:00 p.m. ET, NBC).
Then you told me the NFC was favored by 1.5 points. Now it’s Wednesday evening,
and the AFC is back to –1.5 at some books. Reminds me of this woman I met once.

Three Magic Beans

No need to call the lawyer and sue for whiplash. The NFL betting lines
may have moved three points, but this is about as insignificant as three points
can get. There are almost no ties in football, which leaves us with a fair
price of just 19 cents if you wanted to buy your way from NFC –1.5 to NFC +1.5.
That’s cheaper than the 20.9 cents it should cost you to move from NFC +3 to
NFC +3.5.

This relatively small burst of market volatility is easily explained by
the low bettor turnout. As I write this, our expanded consensus reports haven’t
collected enough data to produce anything. Light betting action leads to soft
markets, where each bet has a much larger effect on the NFL lines than during a
typically busy football game. And conventional wisdom suggests people will be
more interested in betting on the Pro Bowl total than on the pointspread. I
don’t have the numbers to back that up, mind you. It’s just something I read on
the Internet.

Flip-Flops

So, should I stick with my original pick of AFC –1.5? Hold the phone for
just a moment. I made that pick just after the Patriots finished losing the AFC
title game to the Baltimore Ravens, which meant that Pro Bowl nominee Tom Brady
was suddenly not going to the Super Bowl anymore. We’ve since learned that he’s
not going to Honolulu, either. Brady has been replaced by Colts QB Andrew Luck.
Small world.

We’ve also learned that the NFC has replaced Atlanta Falcons QB Matt
Ryan with Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. Excuse me while I whip this out…

No. 1: Tom Brady

No. 2: Peyton Manning

No. 5: Drew Brees

No. 6: Russell Wilson

No. 7: Matt Ryan

No. 13: Eli Manning

No. 14: Matt Schaub

No. 19: Andrew Luck

[gameodds]16/121721/43/us[/gameodds]

You might recognize these rankings from my recent analysis of the Pro
Bowl total. These are based on the DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average)
stats at Football Outsiders – full regular season, in passing situations. I’d
take Wilson over Ryan in a heartbeat. Wilson’s performance has escalated
sharply since the first half of the season, and he also adds plenty of value
with his feet – only Luck and Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton had higher
rushing DVOA stats than Wilson this year. Again, that’s based on the full
regular season.

It’s still a bunch of All-Stars versus a bunch of All-Stars, so I
wouldn’t expect either side to have much of a betting advantage. In which case,
I’ll take Wilson and the NFC (and the points) over the Brady-less AFC.