While it quite certain will not sell nearly as much as the Wii, I think Nintendo is making SOME of the right choices necessary to insure that the console will sell quite a bit more than your prediction.

I couldn't disagree more. I'm personally expecting it to shift 10-15m units before the PS4 and 720 are released, and due to Nintendo's (surprising!) forward thinking regarding the console's architecture combined with the U having a standard rendering pipeline this time around it won't have any problems getting multiplatform titles after the PS4 and 720 are released.

It's launching (whether launch or launch window titles) with several system sellers aimed at a variety of different demographics - NSMB U, Pikmin 3, Lego City Undercover, ZombiU, Rayman Legends, Aliens Colonial Marines, Dragon Quest X and Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate. We may have to wait a little longer for Dragon Quest X, I haven't kept up with the details of that one but the others are either launch or launch window titles.

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I agree, no way can Wii U sell 40 mil in Japan. Not even Monster Hunter can do that. 30 mil in Japan at most. Definitely not more than 35 mil. Maybe, absolutely not more than 37 mil in Japan alone, no ifs ands or buts.