Major changes occurring in the world are redefining the metrics of excellence for higher education.

Is online learning ready to become a disruptive technology?

In 2000, I wrote an article in Change discussing major disruptive impacts on higher education that distance learning might produce (see, How about distance learning, March 3, 2006). In it, I brashly postulated that:

The experience will certainly be different from that found in the classroom of a great teacher, but in the end DL may well provide a competitive or even superior way to learn.

A recent analysis by the Department of Education of learning outcomes achieved by various on-line learning courses compared to those of traditional courses finds that my “in the end” may actually be now!

The DoE identified over a thousand empirical studies of online learning between 1996 and 2007. From these studies, they chose a set to subject to meta- analysis with the goal of answering 4 research questions:

1. How does the effectiveness of online learning compare with that of face-to-face instruction? 2. Does supplementing face-to-face instruction with online instruction enhance learning? 3.. What practices are associated with more effective online learning? 4. What conditions influence the effectiveness of online learning?

The analysis selected from all of the empirical studies using three stringent conditions:

Limit the search to studies of Web-based instruction (i.e., eliminating studies of video- and audio-based telecourses or stand-alone, computer-based instruction); Include only studies with random-assignment or controlled quasi-experimental designs; and Examine effects only for objective measures of student learning (e.g., discarding effects for student or teacher perceptions of learning or course quality, student affect, etc.).

The results of the meta analysis are both impressive and thought provoking :

• Students who took all or part of their class online performed better, on average, than those taking the same course through traditional face-to-face instruction.• Instruction combining online and face-to-face elements had a larger advantage relative to purely face-to-face instruction than did purely online instruction. • Studies in which learners in the online condition spent more time on task than students in the face-to-face condition found a greater benefit for online learning• Most of the variations in the way in which different studies implemented online learning did not affect student learning outcomes significantly • The effectiveness of online learning approaches appears quite broad across different content and learner types • Effect sizes were larger for studies in which the online and face-to-face conditions varied in terms of curriculum materials and aspects of instructional approach in addition to the medium of instruction

There are many data, and numerous caveats, behind each of these conclusions. I strongly recommend a reading of the report to better understand what these conclusions mean. However, a couple of these results deserve some comment here. First, the result that online students who spent more time on task than students in face to face conditions learned more is at some level somewhat of an obvious outcome. More time spent, more material learned. However, this response involves an acknowledgment of relatively equal time- learning efficiency coefficients for both approaches, which would be a step forward for some. It also begs the very interesting question of why the online students were motivated to spend more time on task than their classroom peers.

The last of the results above regarding effect size emphasized that online and face to face courses had the more nearly equal learning outcomes when the courses were most similar. Thus, since online courses seem to be more effective in general, most online courses are differentiating themselves from the face to face courses in ways that lead to increased learning outcomes. Unfortunately, the data are not robust enough to produce many clear differentiating factors. There is too much “context”hidden in the data - undefined differences in instructor behavior and content. Time on task does emerge as important, as do methods that encourage student reflection.

All in all, this report provides both a powerful signal (warning?) that online learning is rapidly growing up, and a call for additional well controlled studies that will show how to further increase the effectiveness of the online experience. It also raises some interesting policy questions regarding various regulations that view online courses as necessarily being of lower quality than face to face courses.

Disruptive or not, online learning is going to take over the education industry, especially higher education. However, I do agree that preventive measure need to be taken in order to avoid unnecessary issues.

Lloyd responds: Thanks for your comment. I think there will be areas of education where online learning will be additive and adaptive, and thus sustaining (there will always be a Harvard). Then there will be other areas where, as you say, online learning will simply "take over". The latter probably outnumber the former.

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