Final: A statistical preview

It is an IPL final made in a brand manager's heaven - pitting the presiding deity Sachin Tendulkar against the golden boy Mahendra Singh Dhoni. If it follows the pattern of the finals of the previous two editions, it will be a humdinger of an affair, and both captains will have to be on their toes to eke out the maximum possible from every situation.

Mumbai and Chennai have taken contrasting routes to the final - with Mumbai winning nearly everything in sight, and Chennai becoming adept at the art of digging themselves out of holes that they had themselves made in the first place.

Both teams have strong batting line-ups, and the runs scored by their top run-getters are a testament to that.

Top run getters for Mumbai:

Matches

Innings

Not Outs

Runs

Average

Balls Faced

Strike Rate

Run Rate

Sachin Tendulkar

14

14

2

570

47.50

421

135.39

8.12

Saurabh Tiwary

15

14

1

419

32.23

307

136.48

8.19

Ambati Rayudu

13

13

1

335

27.92

232

144.40

8.66

Kieron Pollard

13

13

2

246

22.36

137

179.56

10.77

Shikhar Dhawan

9

9

0

191

21.22

162

117.90

7.07

Total

64

63

6

1761

30.89

1259

139.87

8.39

Top run getters for Chennai:

Matches

Innings

Not Outs

Runs

Average

Balls Faced

Strike Rate

Run Rate

Suresh Raina

15

15

4

463

42.09

329

140.73

8.44

Murali Vijay

14

14

2

432

36.00

273

158.24

9.49

S Badrinath

15

14

4

342

34.20

292

117.12

7.03

Matthew Hayden

15

15

0

329

21.93

248

132.66

7.96

MS Dhoni

12

10

2

265

33.13

195

135.90

8.15

Total

71

68

12

1831

32.70

1337

136.95

8.22

As can be seen, the stats for both sets of batsmen are neck and neck. While Mumbai's main men are scoring at a marginally faster strike-rate, Chennai's are scoring at a marginally higher average. In a Twenty20 contest, the strike-rate will count for more than the average though, so Mumbai might hold a slender advantage in the batting stakes.

However, there is not much to separate the sides' top batsmen against each other. How about the bowlers? These are the stats for the top-most bowlers from both sides:

Mumbai's best bowlers:

Matches

Overs

Runs

Wickets

Average

Economy Rate

Strike Rate

Harbhajan Singh

14

49.3

347

17

20.41

7.01

17.47

Lasith Malinga

12

45

311

15

20.73

6.91

18.00

Kieron Pollard

13

33

229

14

16.36

6.94

14.14

Zaheer Khan

13

44.2

342

14

24.43

7.71

19.00

Total

52

171.5

1229

60

20.48

7.15

17.18

Chennai's best bowlers:

Matches

Overs

Runs

Wickets

Average

Economy Rate

Strike Rate

Muralitharan

11

44

312

14

22.29

7.09

18.86

R Ashwin

11

44

269

13

20.69

6.11

20.31

Doug Bollinger

7

27

176

11

16.00

6.52

14.73

Shadab Jakati

10

35

265

11

24.09

7.57

19.09

Total

39

150

1022

49

20.86

6.81

18.37

As can be seen, there is very little to choose between the teams in the bowling department too. Mumbai's best bowlers have a slightly higher economy rate, but they've made up for that by having a marginally lower average and strike rate. Again, staying true to the axiom that strike-rates and economy rates are of slightly higher weightage than economy rates, Chennai might hold a slender advantage in the bowling stakes.

The one thing that is different is that while three of Mumbai's top-4 bowlers are pacers, three of Chennai's top-4 men are spinners. The trend of the tournament has been that spinners have dominated over the pacers, but quality pacers have done well too. Thus if the DY Patil Stadium offers a pitch that assists spin more, Chennai's bowling edge will grow, while if it's more a seamer-friendly wicket, Mumbai's attack is likely to edge ahead.

However, on the whole there is very little to separate the team's top performers when bunched together. Thus even though Mumbai have won more matches than Chennai, Chennai have performed outstandingly in the matches they have won, and statistically the two teams are evenly matched.

Of course, if Sachin Tendulkar is ruled unfit to play in the match, it could alter equations dramatically, but assuming he does play and is at or near full fitness, the teams would go into the finals evenly matched, and the tradition of cliffhanger IPL finals looks likely to be maintained.