UFC 216: Ferguson vs Lee DraftKings Fantasy Targets

DraftKings lowered their $8 entry fee UFC contest in half from the $200K guaranteed it was for UFC 215. It’s only $100,000 guaranteed for this event because of the overlay that came with the large prize pool last PPV. That said, I think a big reason for the overlay of UFC 215 was the fact that the DJ and Borg fight was scrapped late and a lot of people who had DJ throughout their lineups limited their entries. I expect this $8 contest to fill and hopefully we can get back to the $200K guarantees moving forward for the big UFC events.

Below I’ve provided my top 4 targets for UFC 216 at DraftKings. I’m heavy on the favourites in the two title fights and I also have a couple low priced plays that I really like which allows me the flexibility to roster a guy like Mighty Mouse. Check out the breakdowns and good luck this week.

Top Targets

Target #1 – Tony Ferguson ($8900)

Ferguson is the perfect DraftKings fighter in a 5 round fight. He pushes the pace and lands a ton of shots while always moving forward and maintaining a very high workrate throughout. Just look at his 5 round fight with Rafael Dos Anjos in his last outing where he landed 199 significant strikes en route to a decision win and 130 DK points.

Some people are considering Kevin Lee a live dog, but I really don’t see many paths to victory for Lee. Ferguson pushes the pace and will be the more active and dangerous fighter on the feet. I also don’t expect him to be taken down by Kevin Lee because he was able to keep the fight standing against RDA who is a better wrestler than Lee. Ferguson is just a massive step up in competition for Kevin Lee and I don’t think he’s ready at all. Lee is very hittable and does have some issues with his chin where he’s been hurt in fights before. I think Ferguson will get a late finish in this one (he has odds of 1.88 to win inside distance), but it might be even better for DK points if he just beats up on Lee en route to a decision.

Either way, Ferguson is a very good play and I expect him to break 100 DK points in a win.

Target #2 – Demetrious Johnson ($9700)

DJ is very expensive at $9700 and without a ton of value on this card it can be hard to include him in lineups. That will hopefully keep his ownership down somewhat because I still think he’s almost a must play in GPP tournaments. Mighty Mouse has scored over 100 points in his last 3 title fights and 5 of his last 6. I fully expect him to win this fight and he should have no trouble scoring over 100 points. There are a few ways DJ doesn’t reach value, such as an early third round finish or a very fast finish in the first round, but his work rate is so high that if he doesn’t get the finish in either of these small pockets where it could be possible for him to not break 100, he should easily break 100 points in a win.

Just because of his price I might not be on DJ 100%, but I will definitely be overweight on DJ compared to the field and I’ll look for some underdog wins elsewhere.

Target #3 – Poliana Botelho ($7800)

DK came out with their fighter pricing before the oddsmakers dropped the betting lines. When this happens there is usually some mispriced fighters that are solid plays. DK’s pricing was actually fairly accurate this time around and comparable to the betting lines, but there is still one favourite who is priced as an underdog at DK. That favourite is Poliana Botelho who is making her UFC debut against Pearl Gonzalez, who was dominated by Cynthia Calvillo before losing via a late decision in her UFC debut.

I was not impressed with Pearl Gonzalez in her UFC debut and looking at her record she beat a lot of fighters with very weak records on her way to the UFC. Botelho has faced and beaten the higher caliber fighters with wins over (5-0), (4-1) and (3-1) fighters in her last three outings, all finishes. Botelho actually has finished all 5 of her wins in her MMA career and I do expect her to be able to get her hands on Gonzalez, so she should be a good play at DK with high upside while being under priced.

Botelho’s lone loss in her career was a decision loss to Vivian Pereira who has already gone 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Letourneau and Moyle.

I expect Botelho to be the superior fighter. She is also under priced at $7800 and you need to find value somewhere in order to roster DJ and Ferguson. She also has finished all five of her MMA wins, so she has upside in terms of finding an early finish.

Target #4 – Cody Stamman ($7100)

The other fighter who I think has great value at a low price is Cody Stamman. He’s fighting Tom Duquesnoy, who has a ton of hype behind him, but Stamman is also a great prospect and comes into the fight with odds of around 2.45 to win. That in itself shows he has great value for his price tag because the guys around him at 7.0 and 7.2k have odds of 3.55 (Godbeer) and 2.95 (Dunham) to win their fights. Then, on top of his price value, I actually favour him to win this fight.

Duquesnoy has a lot of hype because he always moves forwards and looks for knockouts, but his technique really isn’t that great and he gets hit a lot. He was actually being outstruck 37-36 by Patrick Williams in his UFC debut before landing the knockout. Williams even had two takedowns on Duquesnoy in that fight so it was a very competitive match until the knockout and I would consider Williams one of the worst fighters in the entire UFC.

If Duquesnoy continuously moves forward looking for power punches against Stamman, he’s going to end up on his back an awful lot. Stamman had 8 takedowns in his UFC debut against Terrion Ware and I fully expect him to put Duquesnoy on his back when Duquesnoy over commits with strikes looking for a finish. As you guys know, takedowns are worth a ridiculous amount on DK, and Stamman was able to put up 135 points in a decision over Ware.

This will be an action packed fight where the winner should score a lot of points. At $7100 Stamman allows you to do a lot with your lineup, I favour him to win, and he has a very high ceiling. He checks all the boxes of a great DK play.