I'm a writer, frequent traveler, and even more frequent kitchen superstar. This blog is an attempt to capitalize on those strengths. I live and work in Astoria, New York, and spend entirely too much money trying to recreate travel experiences through meals at local restaurants and at home.

America's Most Dangerous Cities

Twenty-three-year-old Diana DeMayo was helping her millionaire boyfriend Peter Dabish move into his Detroit apartment last year when she was attacked, sustaining a series of blunt-force traumas to her head. After going on the run for weeks, Dabish eventually turned himself in to police and was charged with the first-degree murder of DeMayo in March.

DeMayo’s killing was one of 345 murders reported in the Detroit metropolitan area (Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn) last year. The high murder rate helped make the Motor City the most violent crime-prone area in the United States in 2010, with 1,111 violent crimes reported per 100,000 residents.

To compile our list of America’s most dangerous cities, we used the FBI’s uniform crime report for 2010, which tallies crime data for each of the country’s metropolitan statistical areas, regions that usually consist of a large city and its suburbs or clusters of closely linked smaller cities, and metropolitan divisions, which are core areas within some of the larger MSAs. Because small fluctuations in crime numbers can produce outsize jumps in rates in smaller metropolitan areas, we looked at MSAs with a population of 200,000 or more. We used the FBI’s numbers for four categories of violent crimes: murder and non-negligent manslaughter; forcible rape; robbery; and aggravated assault.

It’s commonly expected that crime will rise as economic conditions worsen, but that hasn’t been the case in the U.S. – violent crime has fallen for the past four years. In 2010, murder was down 4%, rape fell 5%, robbery dropped 10%, and aggravated assault fell 4%, according to the FBI. “There’s a complex series of forces at work behind these rates,” says Tom Blomberg, dean of the College of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Florida State Univeristy. “The state of the economy, demographics, the number of young males at any given time, the rate of imprisonment and the number of police all factor in.”

In the case of Stockton, Calif., geography plays a large part in explaining the area’s high rate of violence: 805 violent crimes per 100,000 residents, ranking seventh on our list. The city is a way station on a major drug route from Mexico up the West Coast, which leads to gang competition for turf, says Megan Wolfram, an intelligence analyst at the risk assessment firm iJET. “When you have competing gangs, there’s a rise in violence,” says Wolfram.

The nationwide drop in crime extends to several of our most dangerous cities, including the Memphis, Tenn., area, which comes in at No. 2 with 1,006 violent crimes per 100,000 residents, down from 1,146 the year before. “Many of [the bottom-most cities] are actually improving, it’s just that so are other cities at a higher rate,” says Wolfram, an intelligence analyst at iJET.

Chronic poverty likely plays a role in Memphis’ high crime rate – 19.1% of the residents of the MSA were below the poverty line in 2010, making it the most impoverished large metro area in the country, according to Census Bureau data. But detailed record keeping also plays a part in why Memphis ranks so highly on our list: the city’s police department adopted a data-driven approach to policing in 2006 that relies on exhaustive and meticulous incident tracking. As a result, it may be recording crimes that in other cities would go unreported to the FBI.

The Springfield, Ill., metropolitan area ranks third on our list with 855 violent crimes per 100,000 residents in 2010. The Illinois state capital confounds analysts who try to interpret its relatively high crime rate. The unemployment rate was lower than the national average at 7% as of July so the economy wouldn’t seem to play a major role in crime. The area’s relatively young population – 66% of the city is under the age of 44 – may be a factor, as younger areas generally have higher rates of crime.

The FBI warns against simplistic analyses of its local crime data because the factors affecting crime rates are so complex and vary by area. “Valid assessments are possible only with careful study and analysis of the range of unique conditions affecting each local law enforcement jurisdiction,” reads the warning that greets every visitor to the Bureau’s website where the statistics are compiled.

What’s clear, though, is that despite a foundering economy and a stubborn unemployment rate, crime in the United States continues the general downward trend that began in the 1990s. Is it because incarceration rates remain high? Because it takes time for crime trends to change? Or because there are more police on the streets using more sophisticated, data-driven methods? Experts can’t say, but the trend extends even to Detroit, which saw a decrease in murders from 398 in 2009 to 345 in 2010.

Post Your Comment

Post Your Reply

Forbes writers have the ability to call out member comments they find particularly interesting. Called-out comments are highlighted across the Forbes network. You'll be notified if your comment is called out.

Comments

Mr. Giuffo, I understand and appreciate that you used FBI statistics to write this article and make your choice for the most dangerous city; that being said I would like to encourage you to spend time writing about the other side of Detroit, the people who live and work in the city who spend their days and nights to turn it around. My job allows me to go into homes in the most dangerous zip code in Detroit, and never once have I been met with anything but open doors and friendly people. Every city has it’s crime, Detroit is no exception. I do believe that Detroit has more heart than it is given credit for. I also believe that the negative publicity does not help the cause of those working towards Detroit’s promise. We need journalists and bloggers, news reporters and tourists to see the good, which may take extra effort, but it will be beneficial to those who love the city, and open new doors for those with a negative image of Detroit.

You make a very good point about there being another side of Detroit, and I hope to have the opportunity to write such a story one day. Pieces such as this list aren’t meant to define a city as a whole, and I do remember reading stories in other outlets which have praised community rebuilding programs and other aspects of Detroit life that are on the rebound.

I am from Springfield, IL. I would really like to speak with you on where you got this data and why aren’t the larger cities with a million plus people lower than Springfield? I am not complaining, I just want to know what the facts. Yes, Springfield and the surrounding areas do have problems, but I do not think they are this bad to be in the top three. Please reply and send me contact information. Thanks

Once again, the data is determined by the Office of Budget and Management, upon which the FBI relies. If your problem is with how Metropolitan Statistical Areas are arrived at (the best measure available for comparing crime from area to area) then your complaint is not with my piece. I don’t make up the numbers.

Man, you guys sure have a surprising list this year. Tallahassee came in at number 8? Beating citites Miami, Jacksonville, New York, Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Newark? Really? Did you use just the crimes in Tallahassee, it looks like you must’ve used the entire Big Bend area(look it up). I think this list needs to be looked at again. BTW: The Sheriff is pissed.

I can’t speak to why the other cities on that list aren’t higher, but crime as a whole has dropped precipitously in cities across America, for a complex set of reasons including better policing methods. New York’s MSA, which includes the surrounding suburbs and Long Island, has recorded 391 violent crimes per 100,000. As a lifetime New Yorker, I can tell you that its been the case that New York has been one of the safest big cities in America for years, and one reason is the police usage of the CompSTAT program, which zeros in on problem areas by computer and helps commanders allocate resources where they are needed.

Forbes Magazine has woefully misrepresented the UCR data compiled by the FBI. A Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is NOT the same as a city. And yet, Mr. Giuffo and Forbes use the MSA data in an article with a headline of “America’s Most Dangerous CITIES”.

The FBI includes the following note along with its UCR data:

“Each year when Crime in the United States is published, many entities—news media, tourism agencies, and other groups with an interest in crime in our Nation—use reported figures to compile rankings of cities and counties. These rankings, however, are merely a quick choice made by the data user; they provide no insight into the many variables that mold the crime in a particular town, city, county, state, region, or other jurisdiction. Consequently, these rankings lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting cities and counties, along with their residents.”

It’s obvious someone doesn’t know what they are talking about Tallahassee came in at number 8 this year because the stats included counties surrounding us. I dont know why but it has. What makes this list so moronic is that Tallahassee made the list of World’s Most Liveable Cities of 2011 and Top 100 Business Friendly Cities this year. And the fact that the FBI’s website advises against using UCRs to rank cities. According to the FBI, rankings are made by the reporter and “provide no insight into the many variables that mold the crime in a particular town, city, county, state, region or other jurisdiction.” Its clear Forbes and their editors have no clue what they are talking about.

John – Have you actually visited Tallahassee? If you had, you would realize it is far from the crime-ridden community you purport it to be. Your failure to objectively gather the facts necessary to paint and accurate picture of the city does a tremendous disservice to the thousands fortunate enough to call Tallahassee home and those considering it as a home. Tallahassee routinely ranks as having some of the best public (and private) schools in Florida.

It is unfortunate that you chose to mislead your readers by basing an entire feature article on “dangerous” cities when there are cities with far worse crime rates than Tallahassee. Readers often look to Forbes magazine as a reputable source on business. Sadly, ill-informed articles such as these tarnish the proud Forbes brand.