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Thank you for coming. -------------------------------------------------------------------In the Year of our LORD Jesus Christ 2017

--As of January 20, 2017

A Sigh Of Relief With The Inauguration Of Donald John Trump as President of the United States of America, And Hope For A Prosperous Future For All United States Citizens (we who are a nation called "the melting pot of the world"). We shall be great and exceptionally great again.

Editor's Note: This Security Weekly assesses the most significant
cartel-related developments of the first quarter of 2013 and provides updated
profiles of Mexico's powerful criminal cartels, as well as a forecast for the
rest of this year. It's the executive summary of a more detailed report
available to clients of our Mexico Security Monitor service.

By
Tristan ReedTactical Analyst

Balkanization of Cartels

Since
the late 1980s demise of the Guadalajara cartel, which controlled drug trade
routes into the United States through most of Mexico, Mexican cartels have
followed a trend of fracturing into more geographically compact, regional crime
networks. This trend, which we are referring to as "Balkanization,"
has continued for more than two decades and has impacted all of the major
cartel groups in Mexico. Indeed the Sinaloa Federation lost significant assets
when the organizations run by Beltran Leyva and Ignacio Coronel split away from
it. Los Zetas, currently the other most powerful cartel in Mexico, was formed
when it split off from the Gulf cartel in 2010. Still these two organizations
have fought hard to resist the trend of fracturing and have been able to grow
despite being affected by it. This led to the polarized dynamic observed in 2011
when these two dominant Mexican cartels effectively split Mexican organized
crime in two, with one group composed of Los Zetas and its allies and the other
composed of the Sinaloa Federation and its allies.

This
trend toward polarization has since been reversed, however, as Balkanization has led
to rising regional challenges to both organizations since
2012. Most notable among these is the split between the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva
Generacion and the Sinaloa Federation. The Sinaloa Federation continues to
struggle with regional crime groups
for control in western Chihuahua state, northern Sinaloa state, Jalisco state
and northern Sonora state. Similarly, Los Zetas saw several regional
challengers in 2012. Two regional groups saw sharp increases in their
operational capabilities during 2012 and through the first quarter of 2013.
These were the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion and the Knights Templar.

The
Beltran Leyva Organization provides another example of the regionalization of
Mexican organized crime. It has become an umbrella of autonomous, and in some
cases conflicting, groups. Many of the groups that emerged from it control
specific geographic areas and fight among each other largely in isolation from
the conflict between Los Zetas and the Sinaloa Federation. Many of these
successor crime groups, such as the Independent Cartel of Acapulco, Los Rojos
and Guerreros Unidos are currently fighting for their own geographic niches. As
its name implies, the Independent Cartel of Acapulco mostly acts in Acapulco,
while Los Rojos and Guerreros Unidos mostly act in Morelos state.

The
ongoing fragmentation of Mexican cartels is not likely to reverse, at least not
in the next few years. Despite this, while Los Zetas and the Sinaloa
Federation continue to face new rivals and suffer from internal splintering,
their resources are not necessarily declining. Neither criminal
organization faces implosion or a substantial decline as a transnational criminal
organization as a result of rising regional challengers. Both Los Zetas
and the Sinaloa Federation continue to extend their drug trafficking operations
on a transnational level, increasing both their influence and profits. Still,
they will continue to face the new reality, in which
they are forced to work with -- or fight -- regional groups.

In
light of Ivan "El Taliban" Velazquez Caballero's dissent from Los Zetas and
the death of former leader Heriberto "El Lazca" Lazcano Lazcano,
Zetas leader Miguel "Z-40" Trevino Morales could face organizational
integrity issues during 2013. Signs of such issues appeared in Cancun during the
first quarter when some members of Los Zetas reportedly broke from the
group and adopted the Gulf cartel name. Besides possible minor dissent, a seemingly
new rival has emerged in Tabasco
state to counter Los Zetas. A group called Pueblo Unido Contra la
Delincuencia, Spanish for "People United Against Crime," carried out
a series of executions in Tabasco
state throughout the first quarter, but the group's origins and
significance remain unclear. No indicators of substantial splintering among Los
Zetas have emerged since the Velazquez split.

Sinaloa Federation

Regional
organizations continued to challenge the Sinaloa Federation on its turf in
western Chihuahua state, northern Sinaloa state and Jalisco state through the
first quarter. Intercartel violence in mountainous western Chihuahua continues
as the Sinaloa Federation fights La Linea for control of the region's smuggling
routes and drug cultivation areas. Los Mazatlecos so far has maintained its
control over northern Sinaloa cities, such as Los Mochis and Guasave. It also
has continued violent incursions into southern areas of Sinaloa state, such as
Mazatlan, Concordia and El Rosario with its ally Los Zetas.

Gulf Cartel

At
the beginning of 2012, Gulf cartel territory appeared likely to be absorbed by
larger cartels -- essentially signaling the end of the Gulf cartel. Support
from the Sinaloa Federation and the Knights Templar combined with fractures
within Los Zetas allowed a Gulf cartel resurgence, leading to a renewed Gulf
assault on Los Zetas in the northeastern states of Mexico. The resurgence ended
with a series of notable arrests during the last quarter of 2012, such as that
of former top leader Jorge Eduardo "El Coss" Costilla Sanchez. The
arrests triggered additional Gulf cartel infighting, which
peaked in March 2013.

The
escalated infighting in the Gulf cartel, particularly in Reynosa, Tamaulipas
state, highlighted the new state of the Gulf cartel: Instead of operating as a
cohesive criminal network, the Gulf cartel now consists of factions linked by
history and the Gulf label. The infighting began in 2010 after the death of
former top Gulf cartel leader Antonio Ezequiel "Tony
Tormenta" Cardenas Guillen. The death of Cardenas Guillen split the
Gulf cartel into two main factions, Los Rojos and Los Metros. By the first
quarter of 2013, infighting had broken out between Los Metros leaders, such as
Mario "Pelon" Ramirez Trevino, David "Metro 4" Salgado and
Miguel "El Gringo" Villarreal. This suggests the Gulf cartel is
further fractured and no longer consists of just two opposing sides. The Gulf
cartel may begin acting as a cohesive network during the second
quarter after the escalated infighting in March, though this cannot
be definitely predicted.

From
March 10 to March 19, Reynosa became the focal point for Gulf cartel infighting
as Ramirez Trevino escalated his conflict against Villarreal. Ramirez
Trevino reportedly expelled Villarreal's faction and its allies from the
Reynosa plaza and killed Salgado. This
could mean Ramirez Trevino has consolidated control over other Gulf cartel factions. If
true, this would represent a substantial shift in organized criminal operations
in northeastern Tamaulipas state, where the Sinaloa Federation and the Knights
Templar smuggle drugs, people and other illicit commodities through the border
towns of Reynosa and Matamoros while Los Zetas maintain a constant interest in
fighting for control of the stated cities.

As
mentioned during the last annual update, Gulf cartel factions are increasingly
reliant on Sinaloa Federation and Knights Templar support to defend the
remaining Gulf cartel territory in Tamaulipas state from Los Zetas. This
certainly remains true after the first quarter, although the recent shift from
Gulf cartel infighting may signal a shift in intercartel dynamics. Since the
Gulf cartel in reality consists of separate factions, there is likely a
separate relationship between each Gulf cartel faction and the larger criminal
organizations reportedly in alignment with them. With Ramirez Trevino now in
charge of Reynosa, a city valued by both the Sinaloa Federation and the Knights
Templar, his existing relationship with the two organizations will likely
influence their strategies for maintaining their interests in Gulf
cartel-controlled areas. Additionally, it is not yet clear whether Ramirez
Trevino suffered any substantial losses during the March fighting in Reynosa.
If he did lose some capabilities fighting Los Zetas in Tamaulipas state, or if
he has challenged a faction loyal to either the Sinaloa Federation or the
Knights Templar, either organization would likely have to use its own gunmen
for defending Gulf cartel-controlled areas or mounting their own incursions
into Zetas territory, particularly Nuevo Laredo.

Intercartel
violence in the Gulf cartel-controlled city of Reynosa will likely diminish
compared to the first quarter of 2013 if Ramirez Trevino has indeed
won. This reduction in violence will continue only as long as Ramirez
Trevino is able to hold his control over Reynosa. Influence from external
organizations, such as Los Zetas, the Sinaloa Federation and the Knights
Templar, could once again spark violence if Ramirez Trevino's efforts have
harmed their trafficking operations through Reynosa or presented a new
opportunity to seize control. What, if any, Gulf cartel infighting is ongoing
is difficult to gauge.

Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion

The
severing of the relationship between the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion and
the Sinaloa Federation came to the forefront of conflicts in the Pacific states
of Michoacan and Jalisco during the
first quarter of 2013. The Sinaloa Federation relied on its
alliance with the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion in defending
the critical location of Guadalajara
from Los Zetas and used the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion as an
assault force into Los Zetas strongholds, such as Veracruz state.

Although
evidence of the rift between the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion and the
Sinaloa Federation began to appear in open-source reporting during the last
half of 2012, the conflict between the two organizations only became clear when
the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion went on the offensive in Jalisco state
by attacking Sinaloa Federation allies Los Coroneles, the Knights Templar and
the Gulf cartel.

With
a now-fully independent Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion, the polarization of
warring cartels in Mexico has effectively ended. In addition to the existing
conflicts between the Sinaloa Federation and Los Zetas, the Sinaloa Federation
must now focus on reclaiming an operational hold over Jalisco state from the
now-rival Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion. The second quarter will continue
to see a conflict between the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion and Sinaloa
Federation-aligned groups in Jalisco state as well as neighboring states like
Michoacan.

Knights Templar

The
Knights Templar experienced intensified conflict during the first quarter
from their principal rival, Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion. In an effort to
combat the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion, the Knights Templar have allied
with other Sinaloa Federation-aligned groups, the Gulf cartel and Los
Coroneles, referring to themselves as "Los Aliados" to fight the
Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion within Jalisco. Violence as a result of this
alliance against the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion has been most notable
in the Guadalajara metropolitan area as well as towns lying on highways 15 and
90, which connect to Guadalajara.

In
addition to the Knights Templar offensive into Jalisco state, the group is
currently defending its stronghold of Michoacan state. The Cartel de
Jalisco Nueva Generacion also has conducted violent assaults against the
Knights Templar in Michoacan, particularly on routes leading from Jalisco state
toward Apatzingan, Michoacan state. This assault has increased intercartel
violence along the border of the two states as part of a tit-for-tat
dynamic.

Citizens
of Buenavista Tomatlan, Michoacan state, a municipality lying amid territory
contested by the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion and the Knights Templar,
have recently set up a community police force to counter Knights Templar
operations in the municipality. As in some other areas of Mexico, this
community police force is a volunteer force that assumed law enforcement
responsibilities independent of the Mexican government. The community police,
while established to thwart the Knights Templar, have created tension between
the communities of Buenavista Tomatlan and the government. On March 8, the
Mexican military detained approximately 34 members of the community police
force that had been created in February in Buenavista Tomatlan.

The
Buenavista Tomatlan arrests occurred after the community police took over the
municipal police station March 4 and detained the municipal police chief, who
the Mexican military later freed. Notably, the Mexican government claimed at
least 30 of the detained community police belonged to the Cartel de Jalisco
Nueva Generacion. If true, this suggests it has made territorial gains to the
point of infiltrating the community police. However, there has been no
confirmation on whether the accusations are true. Regardless, the community
police force of Buenavista Tomatlan has placed its focus on stopping Knights Templar
operations in the area, a focus that could only benefit the Cartel de Jalisco
Nueva Generacion's war with its rivals.

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A Born-Again Christian Conservative and Fundamentalist. A Republican with a very pro-defense, pro-US Cold War view of politics and the world. I also have, as a non-Jew, a Pro-Israel political and religious position as a born-again Christian Conservative.