Tuesday, January 31, 2012

This Outlook sheds light on some important longer-term dynamics that are, unfortunately, more or less pre-determined and will shape the global investment landscape as a background factor for years to come.

It also contains a review and grading of our Outlook 2011.

Just to give some additional perspective:

Here is what what we had told our clients and friends in our Outlook 2011 (published on January 24th, 2011) regarding global equity markets:

2011: „Buy the next 7-10% correction, but be prepared

for a larger decline into summer or late autumn.“

And here is what the Market Strategists of the established Wall Street Banks forecasted for their clients for 2011 (taken from the Barron's Strategists survey 2011:

Average year-end target for the S&P500 by the 10 strategists surveyed by Barron's: 1373.

Actual close:1244 (9% lower), AND the S&P500 experienced a 20% drawdown in between. That is relevant because that is a correction where most investors start to sell.

The same thing goes for the „exclusive“ CNN MONEY SURVEY for 2011.Those surveyed Investment strategists and money managers expected the S&P 500 to rise 11%, on average.

Not one of the 32 experts surveyed by CNNMoney forecasted that the S&P 500 would close flat or that equity markets would decline in 2011, as most markets in Europe and Asia did.

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Who is...

I'm a former Family Office Investment Manager with a strong focus on risk management. My investment approach is based on a combination of Global Macro and proprietary Behavioral Finance techniques.
Asset Allocation is not about twisting 5% between 40% stocks and 60% bonds, but about having a view and identifying future tail risks.