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2014 Predictions Thread Topic

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/18/2014 9:43:00 AM (view original):I suppose a .280 hitter with 30 homers who never walks and strikes out a lot could be a MVP. I can't imagine how bad everyone else would have to be offensively for that to happen but I guess it could. Otherwise, there's no reason to believe he's figured something out. He hasn't had a spike in walks or drastic decrease in whiffs. And that's what has to happen for him to be something else.

Devil's advocate:

other than his MVP season, Josh Hamilton has only hit .300 once
Juan-Gone fits that description and did it twice

I was the first one to jump on jtp for saying Jones was an MVP. And part of it is because modern Sabermetrics mean a season like Pendleton had in 1991 probably isn't an MVP season. But let's not act like it's that absurd.

Pendleton is the only one I'd consider valid. And he was right in the middle of the steroid era too.

Hamilton was a drunken druggie who couldn't stay healthy when he was sober. One great year from a guy who puts it all together isn't that far-fetched. AJ has played several full seasons without injury or trips to rehab.
Juan-Gone, well, I think we know what powered him.

So, yeah, I don't see any indication that Jones will become a different player this year. Still swings at everything and misses a lot of them. If he suddenly had a 60/80 BB/K season, his numbers would look a lot different. But I don't know why anyone would think he's not following the Alfonso Soriano path.

Still not sure why it's that far fetched. Jones has improved his numbers in HRs, RBI and hits every year of his career to date. He's also scored 100 runs each of the last two years. The guy is still a 5 tool player capable of a .300, 40 HR, 120 RBI, 20 steal season, and that could be good enough for MVP, especially if the O's make the playoffs.

Huh? Dude hit .290ish with 40 homers half a dozen times. Do you think he was the only juicer having a good year?

Seriously, WTF are you arguing?
AJ is a .280 hitter capable of 30 homers with 30 walks and a 130 strikeouts. He's been doing the same thing pretty consistently, while adding some power, and this is his 7th full season. Gonzalez came up hitting. .289 in limited duty. .264 with 27 homers, .260 with 43 homers and then he went off. In what way are they similar?

Posted by Jtpsops on 3/18/2014 10:45:00 PM (view original):Still not sure why it's that far fetched. Jones has improved his numbers in HRs, RBI and hits every year of his career to date. He's also scored 100 runs each of the last two years. The guy is still a 5 tool player capable of a .300, 40 HR, 120 RBI, 20 steal season, and that could be good enough for MVP, especially if the O's make the playoffs.

His career best OBP was something like .330 a couple years ago. It's likely his OBP stays in the .315 range this year. Someone who makes an out over 68% of the time is almost never the best player in the league.

Adam Jones' last two seasons were almost identical, with low 30s HR, around 100 RBI and low teens SB. Jumping up to 40 HR, 120 RBI and 20 SB seems unlikely. And even if he does, he still won't be close to Mike Trout's production.

I don't know, but I want some of it!!! Orioles winning the al East? Indians winning the AL Central? Dodgers finishing 3rd in the NL West?? None of those three things will happen...at least not this season.