SPOILER ALERT: Do not read if you haven’t already watched “I’ll Fly Away, the Homeland episode that aired Nov. 18.

All through this second season of Homeland, Nancy Churnin and I have been carrying on spirited Monday-morning discussions about the fates of various characters, especially Marine Sgt./U.S. Congressman Nicholas Brody (the amazing Damian Lewis) the Iraq-captive-turned-returning-hero-but-was-really-a-terrorist-now-turned-double-agent. Got all that? If not, go watch Season One and the first eight episodes of Season Two, and get back to us.

Over the last few episodes, Brody’s terrorist activities have been exposed and he’s been helping the CIA in its efforts to stop a planned terrorist attack on the U.S., led by Brody’s former captor-mentor-surrogate dad Abu Nazir (Navid Negahban). Sidebar: Anyone thinking about how much this show is about parents and children, surrogate or otherwise? Brody and Nazir, Carrie (Claire Danes) and Saul (Mandy Patinkin), Brody and Dana (Morgan Saylor)? Hmmm.

Anyway, in the Nov. 11 and 18 episodes, the stress seemed to be getting to Brody big time; he’s having nasty outbursts with Carrie, Jessica (Morena Baccarin) and everyone else in his path (except Dana, tellingly). On Nov. 18, he was kidnapped by Nazir’s people and whisked away by helicopter for a meeting with … da-da-da-DUM … Nazir. Who’s apparently in the U.S., having shaved his wild beard and shed his Abu Nazir-y clothing.This can only be bad news.

So, here we go: Joy and Nancy give their thoughts on what’ll happen next. We’re both pretty smart, and we TOTALLY disagree here, which is an indication of what a great show Homeland is. Join in the discussion with your comments below!

Joy: It seems like Brody’s being set up for a total breakdown, so he may end up in a mental institution for a couple of episodes, which would give him and Carrie even more of a bond. She understands mental breakdowns. But I still think that Brody, and Damian Lewis, will be around till the end. I suspect Brody’s about to go all double-double-agent on us, wooed by Nazir to the dark side again with whispers about that poor little boy, Issa, and how the Evil Americans killed him. That sets us up at least till the end of this season. Also, Danes and Lewis are probably going to win another set of Emmys for their performances in the “Q&A” episode, which could serve as a master class in TV acting, and we want (and the producers know we want) to keep seeing the irresistible dynamic they’ve established.

Morgan Saylor as Dana Brody and Diego Klattenhoff as Mike Faber in Homeland.

As for the future, I think the writers have invested too much in the Brody-Carrie relationship to let it go (they are now officially the most messed-up, and most fascinating, couple on TV) — and there are only four episodes left this season — without some more whiz-bang interplay, like maybe he really does leave Jessica and start living with Carrie. Which would leave Mike (Diego Klattenhoff) available to swoop in to comfort Jess and the kids, and really, why is Mike still around otherwise? Oh, he’ll probably be involved in leaking the news about Dana’s joyride that ended in an innocent bystander’s death, since Dana had him take her to the victim’s daughter’s house. You can bet Mike made a note of that address, and he’ll get nosy. But I think Mike’s main purpose is going to be comforting Jess when Brody leaves.

Despite Brody’s increasingly erratic behavior over the last couple of episodes, I think he’ll calm down and soldier on, so to speak — whether on Nazir’s side or ours, or maybe a little of both — right into the upcoming presidential election as Walden’s (Jamey Sheridan) running mate. That’ll take us through next season. And then … Brody for president. I’ll say it now: I think he’ll end up in the Oval Office before the series is finished. Homeland is that daring, and the writers will show us horrifically plausible ways that a former (hopefully!) terrorist can end up in the most powerful chair in the world. What could be more terrifying, and more riveting? 24 who?

Nancy: There is only one key prediction I share with Joy and that’s that I will disagree completely with her predictions. Brody for president? No, no, no. Brody is falling apart episode by episode. All those elements that give us a sense of identity, that give us something to hold on to as the world buffets and besieges us — they’ve been stripped from him scene by painful scene.

His identity as a hero? That was always a fraud, because he came back as a terrorist on a mission masquerading as a hero. But now he’s lost grip of his identity as a terrorist, too. In the “Q&A” episode, Carrie turned him into a double agent, but not a trusted one. As he tried (and failed) to drop out of the game in this last episode, he said the one upside to spending the rest of his life in prison (shades of Aileen, who dies in prison, with Saul deluding himself — as Carrie deludes herself about Brody? — that he was helping her) is that he won’t have to keep his lies straight anymore.

Brody’s identity as a husband? Increasingly, it’s clear that Jessica has been sticking by him not because she loves him but because it’s the right thing to do. Ditto for his best friend, Mike, who truly loves and is loved by Jessica. He stepped back from her and the kids when Brody came home because it was the right thing to do.

Brody’s identity as a father? That’s shaky, too. Dana, who was the one who called Brody back from his intended suicide, felt let down when Carrie talked Brody out of taking Dana to the police station to report her hit and run. So who did she turn to? Surrogate father-figure Mike. And where was Brody when she asked her mother about him? AWOL from dad and husband duties. Dana doesn’t know, but maybe she suspects, that her dad was with Carrie. Showing that she is not protecting him anymore, she tells her mom that she saw him with Carrie, and Carrie was the reason he didn’t take her to the police as he promised.

Brody’s identity as the man Carrie loves? He tells her he doesn’t know if she loves him or she’s handling him, which is why he seemed so desperate in their love scene — like a man drowning in madness, grasping her as his last hold on reality. And let’s face it, when Carrie is your last hold on reality, you are really hanging over the abyss.

So my prediction is that when Brody, whose sense of himself is increasingly held together by spit and glue, comes up against the powerful Abu Nazir, he will be almost as vulnerable to mind-shaping as he was when he was captured in Iraq. Almost, because I think there’s something that’s awakened in him through his love for Carrie and his interaction with the big political donor who had gone through hell in Vietnam but had not lost himself. (“That’s the man I could have been,” Brody tells Carrie, wistfully.)

I think he will be tortured and tormented about which way to go, what to be, while he is with Nazir. I believe that Nazir will be so confident, so hubristic about his own persuasive powers, he will trust Brody to carry out his plan of destruction. I believe that while the CIA contingent will be certain he has gone to the terrorist side and will want to intercept him, but Carrie will hold them off — unsure. Ultimately, Carrie, whose greatest talent seems to lie in her uncanny way of reading people’s minds, will be convinced against the odds that he is going to do the right thing. I think it will go down to the wire, with tremendous suspense, but he will choose to do the right thing and die in the process — as the hero he has always wanted to be (and failed to be until now).

There is foreshadowing of this in the scene in the motel where Carrie tells him if he does right in the end, nothing earlier will matter — even the way he hurt her before. I think he will cling to this last thought and that will get him through to the right path. I also think the only reason Damian Lewis’ character, which was meant to be a one-season arc, lasted into the second season was that the actor’s performance and his chemistry with Claire Danes was so powerful.

But I think we will lose him in the second season’s grand finale. Mike is positioned to take his place in his home with Jessica and the kids. And Quinn, played by Rupert Friend, is positioned to step in as Carrie’s love interest (everything in his face and body language screams love for her even if she is utterly unaware; her insightfulness goes only so far.) As for Abu Nazir, I believe he will survive this thwarted terrorist attack to continue as a target for Carrie, Quinn, Saul and the CIA for next season.