SanDisk Leans In Favor Of Shorts Off Earnings-Driven After-Hours Moves

SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) reports its Q3 results in tonight's after-hours session, and shorts get the better look at the stock. Historically, SNDK has seen its earnings-driven after-hours declines move deeper in the red in follow-on regular session trade. Its earnings-driven after-hours gains have seen mixed trade throughout the history we've gathered.

SNDK has seen an after-hours decline in 20 of the 37 quarters we've tracked, and in 13 of those events the stock has seen its decline head deeper south in the following day's regular session (about 65% of the time). On the plus-side, SNDK has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 17 quarters, and followed its gains with reversal moves, or narrower upside trade the next day, in nine of those quarters, or 53% of the time.

SNDK is expected to report a Q3 profit of $0.34 per share on revenue of $1.21 billion, according analysts polled by Capital IQ.

Here's the performance history:

On July 19, 2012, SNDK soared 11.7% in after-hours trade after beating Q2 expectations. The stock cut its upside slightly the next day, ending the July 20 regular session 2ith a 10.3% rise.

On April 19, 2012, SNDK slumped 10.9% in evening trade after missing Q1 expectations. The stock added to its declines the next day, closing the April 20 regular session down 11.2%.

On Jan. 25, 2012, SNDK slumped 8.3% in after-hours trade after topping Q4 expectations but also guiding its revenue below the Street view. The stock cratered lower the following day, ending the Jan. 26 regular session down 11.3%.

On July 21, 2011, SNDK advanced 2.2% in after-hours trade after topping Q2 expectations. The stock surged higher the next day, ending the July 22 regular session up 9.6%.

On April 21, 2011, the stock fell 0.7% after reporting a Q1 beat and guiding in line for Q2. Shares rose 1.6% the next day.

On Jan. 27, 2011, SNDK gained 1% in evening trade after beating Q4 expectations. The stock saw a sharp reversal in sentiment the next day, closing the Jan. 28 regular session down 8.8%.

On Oct. 21, 2010, the stock rose 5.1% after a Q3 beat. Shares fell 0.3% the next day.

On July 22, 2010, SNDK shed 7.8% in evening trade after beating Q2 expectations and announcing its CEO plans to retire. The stock cut its downside the following day, closing the July 23 regular session down 3.8%.

On April 21, 2010, SNDK advanced 7.5% in after-hours trade after beating Q1 estimates. The stock added to its upside the following day, closing the April 22 regular session up 12.3%.

On Jan. 28, 2010, SNDK slumped 4.6% in evening trade despite topping Q4 expectations. Traders continued to sell off the issue the following day, sending it down 11.6% by the close on Jan. 29.

On Oct. 29, 2009, the stock rose 10.5% after swinging to a profit. Shares were up a slightly slimmer 9.5% the next day.

On July 22, 2009, the stock dropped 6.2% in evening trading despite a Q2 beat. The loss widened to 10.9% the next day.

On April 21. 2009, SNDK advanced 9.9% in after-hours trade after beating on Q1 and setting its revenue outlook above the Street for Q2. The stock added to its upside in the April 22 regular session, ending up 13.3%

On Feb. 2, 2009, the stock fell 14.1% in extended-hours trading after a swing to a Q4 loss. Shares plunged 23% the next day.

On Oct. 20, 2008, the stock rose 2.3% despite a swing to a loss and a slide in revenue. The stock also rose 2.3% the next day.

On July 21, 2008, SNDK tumbled 13.5% in after-hours trade after missing Q2 expectations and setting its guidance below the Street view. The stock plummeted deeper in the red the next day, losing 24% by the close on July 22.

On April 17, 2008, SNDK advanced 4.3% in after-hours trade after topping revenue expectations. It fattened that gain in the following regular session, rising 5.8% by the closing bell on April 18.

On July 24, 2006, the stock surged 19.7% in night trading after blowing past Q2 estimates and guiding favorably for Q3. The gain was nearly replicated the next day, although shares were up a slimmer 14.7%.

On April 20, 2006, shares of SNDK fell 3.1% in the post-market hours after the company reported income in line with the Street view but revenue short of expectations. The loss swelled to 8.3% the next day.

On Jan. 26, 2006, SNDK plummeted 12.2% in after-hours trading after the company beat expectations but looking forward also cautioned of a seasonally soft Q1. It stayed pinned in the red the next day but still managed to narrow its downside to a 10.4% decline by the Jan. 27 regular session close.

On Oct. 20, 2005, SNDK blew past Q3 expectations, and the stock jumped 18.3% in after-hours trade. It was spurred higher in the regular session on Oct. 21, rising 21.7% but closing bell.

On July 21, 2005, SNDK gained 3.3% in after-hours trade on better-than-expected Q2 results. Shares widened their gains the next day, ending the regular session up 11.2%.

On April 21, 2005, the stock dropped 5.1% after hours after missing revenue targets. It widened its downside in the April 22 regular session, skidding to a loss of 9.1% at the close.

On Oct. 13, 2004 SNDK tumbled 18.9% in after-hours trade after missing expectations and guiding below estimates. It was thrashed for a more aggressive 27.2% slide in the Oct. 14 regular session.

On July 14, 2004 SNDK roared 20.5% higher in after-hours trade following blow-out results and an in-line to better outlook. The stock crossed a wider move early the next day, but retreated later in the day, ultimately ending the July 15 regular session up 20.5%, matching its night session close.

On April 15, 2004, SNDK tumbled 14% in the after-hours after issuing weak guidance. The stock edged out a 14.1% decline by the next day's close.

On Jan. 21, 2004 SNDK beat expectations and posted in-line guidance. It plummeted 13.3% in the after-hours, only to see further declines on Jan. 22, down 14.1%.

On Oct. 15, 2003 the stock jumped 6.1% in evening trade on better-than-expected results and guidance. It narrowed its gains the next day, closing up a more modest 4.2%.

SNDK pulled through with a big upside move on July 17, 2003, rocketing 11.9% in that day's regular session after advancing 3.6% in the previous night's after-hours on better-than-expected results.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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