Robert Mugabe wins, democracy loses in any Zimbabwe power-sharing deal

Scores of his supporters have been murdered and thousands tortured in the
cause of ridding Zimbabwe of President Robert Mugabe, yet Morgan Tsvangirai,
once the opposition leader, shook the old dictator's hand.

Analysis by David Blair, Diplomatic Editor

8:28PM BST 21 Jul 2008

If a power-sharing deal emerges from the talks that will now open, Mr Tsvangirai will join the president in a “government of national unity”.

Mr Mugabe will ensure, however, that real power rests with him

At a stroke, Mr Mugabe will neutralise his leading opponent, cripple what remains of the opposition, win international recognition - at least in Africa - and break the wall of isolation that presently surrounds him.

This would be no mean achievement. Less than two weeks ago, Mr Mugabe was threatened with a United Nations resolution that would have subjected him to a global travel ban and asset freeze.

If he reaches a deal with his opponents, Mr Mugabe will vault from pariah to elder statesman, certainly among his African neighbours. In short, he will have succeeded in guaranteeing his grip on power until, in his own good time, he chooses dignified retirement.

African autocrats follow one iron rule — either kill your opponents or buy them off. Mr Mugabe’s great innovation was to do both. First he murdered Mr Tsvangirai’s followers, now he will do his utmost to buy off his leading opponent. There is still a chance that Mr Tsvangirai will resist the pressure and refuse to join a coalition government under Mr Mugabe. But the former opposition leader is not very good at resisting pressure.

If so, Mr Tsvangirai and his followers will be compensated with cabinet jobs, official residences and smart cars. Mr Mugabe will ensure, however, that real power rests with him.

President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa will claim vindication for his long years of much derided diplomacy.

The creation of a “government of national unity” will be described as the classic African solution to political impasse.

But the result of the only contested round of Zimbabwe’s presidential election — which Mr Tsvangirai won — will be forgotten. Everyone will be in the government, whether they won or lost the election.

The people’s verdict will be ignored. For as long as that outcome is tolerated, democracy in Africa is lost.