At level 80 Crafting there is roughly a 16-17% chance that the red topaz will be accidentally crushed (in a test of 2000 gems, a total of 335 gems were crushed).

At level 86 Crafting there is roughly a 13.8% chance that the red topaz will be accidentally crushed (in a test with 1.380 out of a sample of 10.000 gems being crushed).

At level 99 Crafting there is roughly a 4.8% chance that the red topaz will be accidentally crushed (in a test with 42 out of a sample of 874 being crushed, would be best to assume 5% on a larger scale).