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Ohio's unemployment rate down to 6.9%; state gained more jobs in recent years than initially reported

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Ohio's unemployment rate was down to 6.9 percent in January from 7.1 percent in December. Revision released Friday show that the state gained more jobs than initially reported.
(Damian Dovarganes, Associated Press)

The ODJFS also released other good news: Ohio gained many more jobs in recent years than initially reported. For example, Ohio actually gained 51,000 jobs instead of the 25,600 originally reported. The revisions are based on the tax records of businesses versus the statistical sampling used in the original projections.

The state gained 16,700 jobs between December 2013 and January 2014. The number of unemployed workers in January was 395,000, down by 16,000 from December.

"The number of unemployed in Ohio fell below 400,000 for the first time in years," Ugur Aker, an economics professor at Hiram College, said in an email.

However, he added a dose of caution.

"In spite of the improvements in the job situation in Ohio, the unemployment rate is still above the national rate of 6.6 percent, and still trying to reach the lower unemployment rate of 6.7 percent experienced 13 months ago when Ohio fared better than the national economy," he wrote.

The U.S. unemployment figure for February, also released Friday, showed the national jobless rate had ticked up to 6.7 percent. Ohio's February figures won't be released until March 21.

Good-producing industries, where employment increased by 10,900, accounted for much of Ohio's job growth in January. Other gainers included: professional and business services, where employment jumped by 5,900; leisure and hospitality, which increased by 3,400 and financial activities, which say a 1,100 increase.

George Zeller of Cleveland, an economic research analyst, said Ohio's January job numbers were good, however, they were still below the national average. The Ohio job growth rate for January was 1.16 percent and that for the U.S. was 1.77 percent," he said.

"So, while our growth was fairly good in January, it was still too slow and was below the national average once again, for the 15th month in a row," he said in an email.

"The revised numbers are welcome news to a state still struggling to recover from the recession," she said in a news release. "But job growth is still too weak. Ohio added about 67,100 jobs over the past 12 months, and while 2013 was better than previously reported, this is still far less than historic standards."

The revised job gain figures all showed annual increases in employment since 2010. In addition to 2013, here are the other numbers:

2008 - Original and revised figures showed that Ohio actually lost 165,400 jobs

2009 - Instead of losing 250,800 jobs, Ohio actually lost 249,100.

2010 - Instead of 55,100 jobs, Ohio gained 57,300.

2011 - Instead of 77,600, Ohio actually gained 81,100 jobs.

2012 - Instead of 40,300, Ohio gained 75,800 jobs.

The original figures are based on a statistical model developed by the U.S. Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"You attempt to develop a stratified sample that best predicts the behavior of the economy," said Bruce Madson, assistant director for Employment Services at ODJFS. "That includes picking a mix of industry that is reflective of the state as a whole."

Since the model is revised every couple of years, it may not capture the most recent developments in Ohio's economy, perhaps even the shale industry, he said.

So once a year, ODJFS revises the numbers based on tax data. Business tax records will reveal clues to job growth and loss. For example, they will reflect unemployment taxes paid resulting from layoffs. Since it is a "rolling five-year revision," most of the numbers will be revised yet again.

"It is important to keep in mind that while the change in non-farm unemployment is significant, the size of the revision is well within any historical variances," Madson said.

"We saw the largest job growth in 2011, then slightly smaller in 2012, but what the revision shows is that in total, the state was adding jobs more rapidly and more consistently than previously reported," he said.

"It is not as if the trend line reported in the monthly numbers was completely wrong, it was understating what was actually happening," Johnson said.

Gov. John Kasich issued a statement saying he was pleased with the revised numbers.

"My hat is off to the hardworking men and women of our state and to the small businesses and entrepreneurs who are the engines of job creation," he wrote. "There's certainly more work to do, but by tearing down barriers to job growth, our jobs-friendly policies are helping Ohioans unleash their natural energy, creativity and work ethic and they're lifting up our state."

"The new numbers show that the economy was much harder on working and middle class Ohioans over the past two years than what Gov. Kasich was saying at the time," Maxwell Heard said. "The fact remains, if you're wealthy and well-connected, Gov. Kasich's top-down economy is working you. But, if you're working and middle class it's harder to get ahead under economic policies targeted at the wealthiest Ohioans."

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