1* Suppose the Republican Primary for the 2010 Governor’s race were held today. Would you vote for Rick Perry, Kay Bailey Hutchison or Debra Medina?

43% Perry

33% Hutchison

12% Medina

11% Not sure

This is to be expected. Just that Medina went from an entry position of 3% in November to 12% this week is a 400% increase; that she’s in double-digits at all shows the strength of her followers. This 12% has been done with no major media commercials in either TV or Radio; no major endorsements, and only yard signs, personal appearances, and word-of-mouth to propel her campaign.

For such a limited amount of exposure, 12% is damn near phenomenal.

But also consider that 11% of the electorate is still undecided. That’s 12% who still will not commit to either of the incumbents, perry or Hutchison. These 11% are Medina’s for the taking.

2* I’m going to read you a short list of people in the News. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Candidate

Very favorable

Somewhat favorable

Somewhat unfavorable

Very unfavorable

Not sure

Rick Perry

26%

46%

17%

9%

1%

Kay Bailey Hutchison

23%

50%

21%

4%

2%

Debra Medina

12%

31%

20%

9%

28%

Or, to rephrase the results by combining . . .

Candidate

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

Rick Perry

72%

26%

1%

Kay Bailey Hutchison

73%

25%

2%

Debra Medina

33%

29%

28%

Medina is an unknown quantity, so she pretty much splits the field within the margin of error. Perry and Hutchinson have almost identical Favorable and unfavorable ratings, although Perry has a iny bit more unfavorables than Perry. While this is very likely a trick of the statistics, it may also be betraying some simmering resentments against Perry.

Or not. Be interesting to see what the next poll shows after the second debate.

3* Should Kay Bailey Hutchison remain in her position as senator while she is running for Governor?

65% Yes

22% No

13% Not sure

I was somewhat surprised by this. While Hutchison originally was to resign her position to run for governor, it appears the electorate doesn’t trust Harry Reid as far as we could throw him (and ten million Texans could throw his skinny butt pretty damned far, I’d reckon.)

So it would appear Texas would rather have Kay Bailey break a promise than Harry Reid.

4* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

8% Strongly approve

8% Somewhat approve

10% Somewhat disapprove

73% Strongly disapprove

1% Not sure

Ithink this pretty much speaks for itself, as well as backs up the Kay Bailey question. Texans overwhelmingly disapprove of what’s going on in Washington; specifically when the President’s got his name all over it. And Texans seem to be leading the pack of disapproval, too.

5* How would you rate the job Rick Perry has been doing as Governor… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

22% Strongly approve

46% Somewhat approve

20% Somewhat disapprove

11% Strongly disapprove

1% Not sure

This is a bit more surprising . For all the grumbling I’ve heard about Governor Perry around San Antonio, it doesn’t seem to show in this poll, and makes me wonder if I’m listening to disaffected Perry supporters, or if the survey sample isn’t being truthful with Rasmussen. A 68% approval rating for the Governor is a death knell to the Medina and Hutchison campaigns; yet Kay Bailey had almost identical numbers on an earlier question?

I have a feeling this number will shift more the closer we get to the primary; although I could be wrong.

But Medina, the owner of a medical consulting firm, is the only candidate who is gaining ground, up from four percent (4%) of the GOP vote in November and three percent (3%) in September. Some political analysts have said Medina was the strongest performer in last Thursday night’s GOP gubernatorial debate, although most of the focus was on Perry, who is seeking an unprecedented third term as governor, and Hutchison, a member of the U.S. Senate for the past 16 years.

Count on these numbers changing. I’m informed that BELO corporation, the sponsor of the second debate, has decided to invite Medina to the second debate, so it will still be a horse race for the forseeable future.