ROILO GOLEZ, Philippine National Security Adviser (2001-2004). The world and the Philippines as Roilo Golez sees it. With focus on national security, geopolitics, geo-security, economics, science and government.

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Golez: I agree that it is worrisome to see the US appearing to make a deal with China to rein in or discipline North Korea expressed in possible trade concessions in favor of China.

Golez: I agree that it is worrisome to see the US appearing to make a deal with China to rein in or discipline North Korea expressed in possible trade concessions in favor of China. Worrisome because the next question is what other items were on the table in making the deal? Taiwan? Senkakus? South China Sea? It could lead to dangerous speculation by the allies of the US. It could also lead to China's renewed aggressiveness in other fronts, now that they may have a US IOU in their pockets. I note the following valid observations:

"Then again, Trump also tweeted that if China fails to “deal” with the North, “the U.S., with its allies, will.”

"As a result, Beijing is starting to play ball with Trump. China canceled North Korean coal shipments and pointedly declined last week to join Russia in vetoing a US-sponsored resolution on Syria at the United Nations Security Council. That signaled its diplomatic alliance with Moscow against us is no longer automatic.

"Most important, some of Beijing’s tightly controlled state-owned media are now warning Pyongyang that a nuclear test would be a no-no.

"Yes, Beijing is angry with the current Pyongyang top man — the craziest, most unpredictable of the three Kims it has dealt with. But the young Trump presidency can also claim credit for the Chinese finally starting to acknowledge the reality that North Korea endangers everyone.

"But no, we shouldn’t mistake Beijing’s small steps for a major strategic shift.

"Xi is his country’s most ambitious leader since Chairman Mao. He has slowly but surely expanded China’s military powers to match the country’s rising economic clout, and has moved quickly to dominate his neighborhood.

“His goal is to return China to glory as the Middle Kingdom it once was,” Akio Takahara, a Tokyo University China expert, told me during a recent visit to Japan. For officials and scholars there, as well as for diplomats from a host of other American allies in Asia, fears of China’s rise often rival those of North Korea.

"Conversely, China always keeps one eye on its neighbors and fears being surrounded by strong pro-American powers.

"So while Xi is indeed signaling he’s aware that North Korea is dangerous, he’s just as opposed to Trump’s accelerated deployment of a defensive THAAD anti-missile system in South Korea.

"He warns against any departures from Japan’s post-war pacifism. And surely he’s not too happy that the Carl Vinson strike group was sent to prowl the waters around the Korean Peninsula.

"Fear of being surrounded is the best explanation for Beijing’s longtime support for Pyongyang’s failed family rule: Communist North Korea serves as a buffer against South Korea, Japan and the other American allies near China’s borders.

"Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe golfed with Trump at Mar-a-Lago before Xi enjoyed that famous chocolate cake there. The president needs to pay attention to concerns in Tokyo and those of other Asian allies and not act — as some critics say he does — based on what the last person he talked to told him.

"Their concerns are similar to the ones raised by Russia’s neighbors when Trump was seen as trapped in Vladimir Putin’s back pocket. Trump, thankfully, turned his back to the Russian bear, but remember: With all its military might, Russia is a weak economic power that in the long run can hardly compete with us on the world stage.

"China, by contrast, is rising.

"So, yes, warming up to Xi yields some gains. But those of us who warned Trump that Russia will never be a true US ally, must now caution against aligning too closely with China, the power that will compete with us and rival us for decades."

In President Trump’s world, Russia’s out and China’s in. But despite early benefits, he should beware of getting too chummy with his new BFF — Beijing’s Xi Jinping.

Trump’s switcheroo (he’s no longer pro-Russia and anti-China, as he was on the campaign trail) is showing some early signs of success on the Korean Peninsula: Ever so slightly, Beijing’s shifting away from its unconditional defense of the Kim Jong-un regime.

Why? Display of American might in Afghanistan and Syria, the latter while Xi was enjoying dessert at Mar-a-Lago, has reminded Beijing that it should beware of the world’s (still) foremost military power.

Then there are the carrots: President Trump reversed a campaign promise to tag China a currency manipulator. He hinted at conditioning the reversal on added Beijing pressure on Pyongyang, tweeting, “Why would I call China a currency manipulator when they are working with us on the North Korean problem? We will see what happens!”

Then again, Trump also tweeted that if China fails to “deal” with the North, “the U.S., with its allies, will.”

As a result, Beijing is starting to play ball with Trump. China canceled North Korean coal shipments and pointedly declined last week to join Russia in vetoing a US-sponsored resolution on Syria at the United Nations Security Council. That signaled its diplomatic alliance with Moscow against us is no longer automatic.

Most important, some of Beijing’s tightly controlled state-owned media are now warning Pyongyang that a nuclear test would be a no-no.

Yes, Beijing is angry with the current Pyongyang top man — the craziest, most unpredictable of the three Kims it has dealt with. But the young Trump presidency can also claim credit for the Chinese finally starting to acknowledge the reality that North Korea endangers everyone.

So, yes, making nice with Xi is a sensible strategy. But no, we shouldn’t mistake Beijing’s small steps for a major strategic shift.

Xi is his country’s most ambitious leader since Chairman Mao. He has slowly but surely expanded China’s military powers to match the country’s rising economic clout, and has moved quickly to dominate his neighborhood.

“His goal is to return China to glory as the Middle Kingdom it once was,” Akio Takahara, a Tokyo University China expert, told me during a recent visit to Japan. For officials and scholars there, as well as for diplomats from a host of other American allies in Asia, fears of China’s rise often rival those of North Korea.

Conversely, China always keeps one eye on its neighbors and fears being surrounded by strong pro-American powers.

So while Xi is indeed signaling he’s aware that North Korea is dangerous, he’s just as opposed to Trump’s accelerated deployment of a defensive THAAD anti-missile system in South Korea.

He warns against any departures from Japan’s post-war pacifism. And surely he’s not too happy that the Carl Vinson strike group was sent to prowl the waters around the Korean Peninsula.

Fear of being surrounded is the best explanation for Beijing’s longtime support for Pyongyang’s failed family rule: Communist North Korea serves as a buffer against South Korea, Japan and the other American allies near China’s borders.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe golfed with Trump at Mar-a-Lago before Xi enjoyed that famous chocolate cake there. The president needs to pay attention to concerns in Tokyo and those of other Asian allies and not act — as some critics say he does — based on what the last person he talked to told him.

Their concerns are similar to the ones raised by Russia’s neighbors when Trump was seen as trapped in Vladimir Putin’s back pocket. Trump, thankfully, turned his back to the Russian bear, but remember: With all its military might, Russia is a weak economic power that in the long run can hardly compete with us on the world stage.

China, by contrast, is rising.

So, yes, warming up to Xi yields some gains. But those of us who warned Trump that Russia will never be a true US ally, must now caution against aligning too closely with China, the power that will compete with us and rival us for decades.