The best and most profitable way to expand the World Cup is a 48-team tournament of 16 three-team groups, according to FIFA's in-house research which accepts the current 32-nation format produces the highest quality soccer.

The preferred format announced by FIFA President Gianni Infantino this month rates highest in a 64-page analysis of five options for the 2026 World Cup, the first when change can be made.

FIFA concludes "the 48-team (16x3) format would appear to offer the most tangible and intangible value," in the document seen by The Associated Press.

With extra knockout games in a new Round of 32, the format of 80 matches — each in an exclusive time slot over 32 days — appeals to broadcasters and sponsors and would raise income, FIFA suggested.

Kickoffs in prime time
FIFA also wants to please fans and broadcasters in "major markets" by creative scheduling of kickoffs in their prime time back home rather than in the host nation.

Revenue could rise almost 20 per cent to $6.5 billion, using the projected $5.5 billion income from the 2018 World Cup in Russia as a base comparison. Though organizing costs would also project to rise, from around $2 billion to $2.3 billion, the potential profit would increase by $640 million, the research said.

Still, FIFA cautions ahead of its ruling Council's planned Jan. 10 vote in Zurich that "it should not be a financial decision"

"Instead, the goal of expanding the FIFA World Cup is to further advance the vision to promote the game of football, protect its integrity and bring the game to all," the document noted.

However, it does not specify a detail that UEFA President Aleksander Ceferin asked for — how the 16 extra places would be shared among six continental confederations. UEFA now has 13 qualifying slots and could be in line for 15 in a political process set to best reward Africa and Asia.

FIFA acknowledges that quality of play could drop by adding 16 more of its 211 member federations.

The "absolute quality" of soccer — with high-ranked teams playing each other most often — is achieved by the 32-team format being used in Russia and at the 2022 event in Qatar. FIFA said it made 10,000 tournament simulations to reach that conclusion.

Keeping the 32-team format is one option but FIFA's research shows clear intent to change that was promised during Infantino's election. He campaigned for a 40-team tournament that would give Europe a new quota of 14.

'16x3' most popular option
Infantino now points to "16x3" being the most popular option.

"The big, big, big majority is in favour of the 48 teams with the 16 groups of three," the FIFA leader said after a Dec. 7 meeting of some members in Singapore.

Infantino previously promoted 48 teams with an opening playoff round involving 32. That idea failed to persuade FIFA members and commercial partners who want more certainty, less short-notice travel for fans, and a minimum of two matches per team.

Expansion for the first time since 1998 is "viable without major concessions on the sporting aspects of the tournament," FIFA insisted.

The biggest change a 16x3 format could force is penalty shootouts after drawn group games to ensure there is a 'winner.' That radical change to soccer rules, first reported by the AP, would help stop teams conspiring to arrange a favourable result in the final group game.

FIFA has sent the research document to Council members and member federations, who want more World Cup slots to help encourage young players and sponsors at home.

Donor

Torn. It's a damn dumb move in order to compete with the Champions League and I guarantee their will be collusion during games. But the Euros expanded this year and outside of maybe Ukraine, noone looked out of place.

StaffDonor

StaffDonorTMB OG

Details on a mini tourney for the last two spots:

Here’s what they are proposing, with the CONCACAF region potentially having its number of direct slots increased from to six, while Europe will be increased from 13 to 16. Plus, the Bureau of the FIFA Council has also suggested a six-team tournament in 2025 to decide the final two spots in the World Cup.

AFC (Asia): 8 direct slots

CAF (Africa): 9 direct slots

CONCACAF (North & Central America): 6 direct slots

CONMEBOL (South America): 6 direct slots

OFC (Oceanic): 1 direct slot

UEFA (Europe): 16 direct slots

There is also more information below from FIFA on how that mini-tournament would work in 2025 as a test event ahead of the World Cup.

The above allocation accounts for 46 of the 48 participating teams. The proposal reviewed by the Bureau of the Council includes a play-off tournament involving six teams to decide the last two FIFA World Cup berths:

One team per confederation with the exception of UEFA + one additional team from the confederation of the host country;

Two teams to be seeded based on the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking. The seeded teams will play for a FIFA World Cup berth against the winners of the first two knockout games involving the four unseeded teams;

Tournament to be played in the host country(ies) and to be used as a test event for the FIFA World Cup;

Existing play-off window of November 2025 suggested as tentative date for the 2026 edition.

StaffDonorTMB OG

I have to think that a majority of the tournament would take place in the US. Is there any sort of idea on the full list of cities? I'd imagine Toronto and Montreal are locks for Canada, and obviously Mexico City and Tijuana(? - I don't know much on the infrastructure in Mexico)

Donor

Mexico would probably be Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey, and maybe another in Mexico City or some place like Torreon, Tijuana, or Puebla.

I could see Tijuana because it also throws a bone to San Diego residents.

Screw Mexico on this joint bid though. They'd basically be co-hosts anyways if it was just the U.S. hosting and they've already hosted in '70 and '86. But, I understand the politics behind this due to FIFA's greed.

If this is the only way the US gets a WC in the next 20 years I'm fine with it. Better than nothing....

That said the US needs to host at least 50% of the group games and more than 30% of the knock out round. I get the feeling, however, the US will probably give up the two semifinals to Mexico and Canada to host the final.