Others such as the Basketball Prospectus took the formula and suggested additional calculations based of the system, and Version 4.0 was introduced at the outset of the 2016-17 season to measure the potential value of players based on how valuable they could be if they played 67% of the minutes and had 24% of the possessions during that time on the court.

The system is similar to baseball WAR. However, while WAR measures one "replacement player" taking the place of a start player, in Value Add pin points the number of POINTS each college player is worth due to the "domino effect" of the impact on the entire game rotation when the player is lost.

John is now the Executive Director of Take Back Our Republic, a group working to find conservative solutions to the problem of money in politics. Anyone who wants to join that group simply needs to go to that page and type in their email and zipcode.

From there we have played around with some offshoots, but none of these pretend to pinpoint value like Value Add Basketball does.

1. Baseball - The value of 250+ starting pitchers from 2014 and 2015 with every start detailed, and with an explanation of how the metrix can work when other systems fail.

2. Football - The value of 6000+ returning players - really just for fun as a one year attempt to value everyone from tackles to quarterbacks.

3. State-by-State - The top athletes in each state (track, hockey, etc., cast your vote by sending an email to valueaddsports@gmail.com with up to 10 players listed in your state).

Others such as the Basketball Prospectus took the formula and suggested additional calculations based of the system, and Version 4.0 was introduced at the outset of the 2016-17 season to measure the potential value of players based on how valuable they could be if they played 67% of the minutes and had 24% of the possessions during that time on the court.

The system is similar to baseball WAR. However, while WAR measures one "replacement player" taking the place of a start player, in Value Add pin points the number of POINTS each college player is worth due to the "domino effect" of the impact on the entire game rotation when the player is lost.

John is now the Executive Director of Take Back Our Republic, a group working to find conservative solutions to the problem of money in politics. Anyone who wants to join that group simply needs to go to that page and type in their email and zipcode.

From there we have played around with some offshoots, but none of these pretend to pinpoint value like Value Add Basketball does.

1. Baseball - The value of 250+ starting pitchers from 2014 and 2015 with every start detailed, and with an explanation of how the metrix can work when other systems fail.

2. Football - The value of 6000+ returning players - really just for fun as a one year attempt to value everyone from tackles to quarterbacks.

3. State-by-State - The top athletes in each state (track, hockey, etc., cast your vote by sending an email to valueaddsports@gmail.com with up to 10 players listed in your state).

Saturday, July 9, 2016

After laying out the calculation of additional wins of all NBA Players in the previous post, If we go the next step and rank all NBA players by the same method and then group them by their colleges, we have 27 colleges that could put a starting five on the court. When we add D-League players we get to a perfectly round 36 colleges.

Better yet, these 36 fall pretty nicely into the six current NBA Divisions, going with six colleges each Division. Using ESPN's Extra Wins formula for current NBA players and Value Add Basketball's ranking minus two for each player coming out of college this year, we give each college credit for the number of extra wins each of their top five NBA players delivered in 2016. If they have more than five NBA players we give half credit for the next best five players from the college, but any beyond 10 from one college are not counted.

Here are the final records we would expect from all 36 NBA players teams of current college players, and each players estimated win value in that division. At the bottom of the table the resultant playoff match-ups are listed:

Wednesday, July 6, 2016

The additional wins a team can expect from drafting or trading for an impact player can be measured by referring to this chart. We follow only the 148 players who played at a level worth at least four additional wins to an NBA team over what a replacement player would have done, based on:

Value Added ratings for players in the NBA last year, as listed here on ESPN.

Value Add Basketball ratings minus 2 for players who played college basketball last year. The ratings at www.valueaddbasketball.com actually measure how many points a college player impacts his team's scores each 100 trips down the court, but the projection to their value at the next level is roughly projected in this way.

The assumption that international picks were taken in roughly the correct position in the draft relative to the Value Add ratings of the college players selected near them in the draft.

This table does not rate players who were injured, or adjust for age (a 20 year old will likely improve the next year, while a 30 year old will likely decline).

The Boston Celtics, Golden State Warriors and Chicago Bulls are the three teams who have improved by at least 15 games based on these analytics, but of course the Warriors cannot really improve that much with Kevin Durant since they were already 73-9. Click here for on John Pudner's stories on Breitbart Sports for team breakdowns and other updates.

Saturday, April 2, 2016

Prior to the Big East, Villanova needed to upset Kansas and beat an Oklahoma team that destroyed them earlier in the year to let the Big East finish with a better case than the Big 12 as the No 2 conference this year. Well, a record 44-point margin of victory by Nova over Oklahoma settles that case and leaves the final tournament records prior to the National Title game as:

ACC 18-5Big East 8-4Big 12 8-7

All other conferences with at least two teams invited had a losing record or .500 mark, though a shout out to the West Coast conference for not getting a second bid but looking great in the NIT and having Gonzaga go 2-1 and almost beat Syracuse.

Villanova was the only team at Value Add Basketball with four top four players in the top 200 and the ability to spread the court was unstoppable as they shot over 70% Saturday - the only team besides the 1985 Villanova squad to top that mark.

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Here are the options we laid out for brackets - fully admitting that even the best sports analyst at MIT admit at conference the systems really don't work on a single game elimination. You can click on the piece and the options here.

Obviously, Value Add Basketball is an analytical tool to measure past performance and not a predictor of the future, but you can't help filling out brackets to capture the one time people are paying attention!

Sunday, March 13, 2016

If you just want a visual of the filled in Fox Sports bracket scroll to the bottom of the post, or you can go to the table and fill in each team on the number of lines indicated.

In the table, the number of bracket lines (wins) recommended for each team is followed by the overall Bracket Rating, then by their Sagarin Rating, if they are hot or cold (see Breitbart Story), how many points they will lose or gain based on the Value Add of injured or returning players, the number of likely NBA players on their team, how much they rely on experienced point guards and if they have the All-American or at least All-Conference players to take them to a title. Explanations of each follow at the bottom.

You can click on my analysis of the Midwest, East, South and West brackets - which appear in Breitbart Sports.

Seed

South Region

Lines in Bracket

Brac

Sag

Hot

Inj

NBA

PG

All-Americans

1

Kansas

4

101.9

93

2

0.2

3.5

0.4

2.8 5th,5th,B12/2

16

Austin Peay

69.0

67

2

0.1

-0.7

0.6 OVC/1

8

Colorado

83.6

82

1

0.4

-1.0

1.2 4th

9

Connecticut

1

91.9

86

2

1.2

1.4

0.1

1.2 Amer/1,2

5

Maryland

1 (talent for 3)

90.4

87

-2

3.4

-0.1

2.2 5th,B10/2,2

12

South Dakota St.

80.8

78

0

1.8

-0.1

1.2 Sum/1,2

4

California

2

92.1

86

2

0.6

2.4

-0.1

1.2 P12/1,2

13

Hawaii

81.0

80

0

-0.7

0.1

0.1

1.4 BW/1,1

6

Arizona

92.8

89

0

1.6

1.9

-0.1

0.4 p12/2

11

Vanderbilt

92.7

88

1

0.5

2.2

-0.1

1.2 SEC/1,2

11

Wichita St.

2

92.3

87

2

0.6

1.3

1.4 MVC/1,1

3

Miami FL

1 (could be 3)

91.7

89

0

1.1

1.3

0.4 ACC/2

14

Buffalo

75.1

74

1

0.5

-0.4

0.0 No All-MAC

7

Iowa

1

87.5

88

-2

-0.1

0.6

-0.4

1.4 3rd

10

Temple

77.5

78

0

-0.8

-0.1

0.4 Amer/2

2

Villanova

3

94.5

92

-1

0.4

1.4

-0.1

1.8 BE/1,2,2

15

UNC Asheville

74.2

73

1

-1.0

1.2 BSth/1,2

Seed

West Region

Win

Brac

Sag

Hot

Inj

NBA

PG

All-Americans

1

Oregon

1 (could be 3 or 4)

91.4

87

3

1.1

-0.7

1.0 P12/2,2

16

Southern

68.2

67

-1

0.4

1.8 SWAC/1,2,2

16

Holy Cross

64.7

64

0

0.1

0.6 Amer/1

8

Saint Joseph's

82.8

82

-1

0.2

0.5

-0.4

1.4 A10/1,1

9

Cincinnati

2

86.2

85

0

0.7

-0.1

0.6 Amer/1

5

Baylor

89.8

86

2

1.5

-0.1

0.4 B10/2

12

Yale

1

83.9

82

3

-1.6

-0.7

1.2 Ivy/1,2

4

Duke

3

90.2

89

-2

-1.5

2.9

-0.7

2.4 2nd,ACC/1

13

UNC Wilmington

77.5

77

0

0.1

0.4 CAA/2

6

Texas

1

90.0

85

-1

3.1

1.5

1.0

0.4 B12/2

13

Northern Iowa

84.7

80

3

0.2

0.1

1.4 MVC/1,1

3

Texas A&M

2

93.0

88

2

1.6

0.4

1.0 Slnd/2,2

14

Green Bay

76.8

74

2

0.4

0.4 Horz/2

7

Oregon St.

79.4

81

0

-4.6

0.8

0.4

1.8 1st

10

VCU

1

86.8

84

2

-0.2

0.2

0.4

0.4 A10/2

2

Oklahoma

5

95.2

90

0

1.0

1.8

2.4 1st,B12/2

15

Cal St. Bakersfield

78.7

75

1

1.3

0.1

1.2 WAC/1,2

Seed

East Region

Win

Brac

Sag

Hot

Inj

NBA

PG

All-Americans

1

North Carolina

4

100.1

92

2

1.4

3.5

-0.4

1.6 2nd

16

Florida Gulf Coast

72.5

70

2

0.2

-1.0

1.2 ASun/1,2

16

Fairleigh Dickinson

64.2

64

0

-0.4

0.6 NEC/1

8

USC

84.0

83

-2

1.1

0.7

1.2 SB/1,2

9

Providence

1

87.0

82

2

1.0

0.1

1.8 5th,BE/1

5

Indiana

1

92.7

89

2

-1.9

2.0

0.4

1.2 4th

13

Chattanooga

77.3

77

0

-0.1

-1.0

1.4 SC/1,1

4

Kentucky

2

100.0

90

2

0.5

4.3

0.1

3.0 2nd,4th

13

Stony Brook

77.8

78

-1

-1.4

0.3

0.4

1.4 3rd

6

Notre Dame

1

87.7

84

1

2.2

0.1

0.4 ACC/2

11

Michigan

80.9

84

0

-3.9

1.8

-1.0

0.0 No All-B10

11

Tulsa

79.6

80

-2

0.2

0.1

1.2 Amer/1,2

3

West Virginia

(could be 4)

94.3

92

2

0.3

-1.0

1.0 B12/2,2

14

Stephen F. Austin

2

87.7

81

4

0.1

2.6 3rd,Slnd/2,2

7

Wisconsin

83.2

84

-2

0.1

0.9

-0.4

0.6 B10/1

10

Pittsburgh

1

85.8

85

0

0.6

0.1

0.0 No All-ACC

2

Xavier

3

89.1

88

0

0.9

-0.4

0.6 BE/1

15

Weber St.

75.3

74

0

0.5

-0.4

1.2 BSky/1,2

Seed

Midwest Region

Win

Brac

Sag

Hot

Inj

NBA

PG

All-Americans

1

Virginia

1 (could be 3)

95.6

92

1

0.8

0.4

1.4 3rd

16

Hampton

66.9

65

0

1.1

0.1

0.6 MEAC/1

8

Texas Tech

81.1

82

-1

0.1

0.0 No All-B12

9

Butler

3

88.8

86

1

0.3

0.4

0.7

0.4 BE/2

5

Purdue

2

93.1

90

2

1.7

-1.0

0.4 B10/2

12

Arkansas Little Rock

79.2

79

0

-0.4

0.6 SB/1

4

Iowa St.

1

92.0

88

0

-0.4

1.5

0.1

2.8 2nd,5th

13

Iona

81.9

77

2

0.8

0.2

0.4

1.4 MAAC/mvp,2

6

Seton Hall

2

88.0

84

3

0.6

-0.1

0.6 BE/1

11

Gonzaga

89.5

87

1

-0.3

1.1

-1.0

1.6 WCC/mvp,1

3

Utah

1

94.0

87

2

2.0

1.4

-0.1

1.8 1st

14

Fresno St.

77.7

76

2

-1.5

0.2

0.4

0.6 MWC/1

7

Dayton

83.7

83

-2

2.2

0.1

-0.1

0.6 A10/1

10

Syracuse

1

81.7

83

-2

1.3

-1.0

0.4 ACC/2

2

Michigan St.

6

102.6

93

3

2.0

1.8

1.0

1.8 1st

15

Middle Tennessee

77.2

75

2

0.8

-1.0

0.4 CUSA/2

The "Bracket" Rating after each team is the total rating for the team based on the sum of the other columns. The teams with the best chance to win the tournament based on the other factors are Michigan State (102.6), Kansas (101.9), North Carolina (101.1), Kentucky (100.0) and Virginia (95.6).

The Sagarin Rating is how many points the team is better or worse than an opponent (if a team with an 86 plays a team with a 76, they should win by 10 points). The top teams based purely on how well the teams have played this season are Michigan State and Kansas at 93, and UNC, Virginia, Villanova and West Virginia all one point behind at 92.

The "Hot" rating indicates how much a team has been improving or fading over the past few weeks, primary at www.kenpom.com. The hottest team going into the tournament is Stephen F. Austin (+4) followed by Michigan State, Oregon, Seton Hall, Yale and Northern Iowa all at +3.

The "Healthy" rating is a negative if a team is missing players (Oregon State and Michigan are missing key players), but it also indicates the teams that have key players back who missed parts of the season - thus making the team better now than their overall rating (Texas +3.1, Dayton +2.2, Michigan State +2.0 due to missing Valentine for several games, Utah +2.0 and South Dakota State +2.0. The list of players impact this rating were covered in a Breitbart Sports story.

The "NBA" rating is the estimation of how many players on the team will end up playing in the NBA based on Value Add basketball. If a team has two players with a 50% chance of making the NBA, we add the two .5 chances to estimate one NBA player emerges. As usual, Kentucky is first with an estimated four future NBA players on their team (4.33), followed by Kansas (3.54), UNC (3.46), Maryland (3.36), Duke (2.94), California (2.42), Notre Dame (2.19) and Vanderbilt (2.17).

The "Experienced Point Guard" indicates whether or not the team's top players are experienced guards particularly point guards, who can handle the pressure when things are not going well in the tournament. Oklahoma is the best in this regard with senior and Breitbart Sports National Player of the Year Buddy Hield and their second and third best players both being experienced point guards. They have a +1.8, while four teams have a 1.3 (Miami of Florida, Wichita State, UC Irvine and BYU). A team whose top players are all experienced front line players would have a 0.0.

The All-American rating is based on having the go-to players from the Breitbart Sports All-American team or at least an All-Conference posted here. A first team All-American like Denzil Valentine of Michigan State is worth 1.8 points, while Kentucky (3.0) has a second and fourth team All-American for the top spot. All-Conference players are worth much less, but Al McGuire's old saying that a team needs three and a half stars to win a title points to schools like Kansas (two All-Americans and one more All-Big 12 selection) as a contender.

Monday, March 7, 2016

Following the 4th Breitbart Sports All-American Basketball Team, we added the 32 All-Conference teams below. The first player in each conference is in bold as the Breitbart Sports Conference Player of the Year. The first five players are the 1st Team All-Conference Players, followed by the 2nd Team All-Conference Players. We also tracked the teams eliminated from March Madness every day.

About Me

I am the oldest of nine children with nine children of my own. As much as I love sports (Marquette, Auburn, NY Jets and Islanders and Houston Astros) and politics, my family and my faith (Catholic) are the most important things to me. For most of my life, I really enjoyed running and winning political campaigns. Until I turned 50 I would still pull some all nighters as election day approached, but decided when Dave Brat defeated Eric Cantor that would be my last Election Day All-Nighter. Marquette taught me to work hard - I had 18 credits and three jobs totally 60 hours a week my last 3 semesters (intern with US Senator, sports desk of Milwaukee Journal and news editor at Marquette Tribune) and I've never slowed down. I love living in Auburn (top place to live in US by some accounts) and family in Virginia, but also love to get to upstate New York with my Dad's side of the family, and truly love to get back to Milwaukee, and have adopted Cleveland as another city I love.
Approaching 50 I decided to give up campaigns and serve as ED of www.takeback.org, which has given me the wonderful chance to built State Chapters throughout the US.