Climate change: 2015 will be the hottest year on record 'by a mile', experts say

Exclusive: Findings make a nonsense of claims of a 'pause' in global warming

Climate scientists are predicting that 2015 will be the hottest year on record “by a mile”, with the increase in worldwide average temperatures dramatically undermining the idea that global warming has stopped – as some climate-change sceptics claim.

Even though there are still several months left in the year to gather temperature readings from around the world, climate researchers believe nothing short of a Krakatoa-sized volcanic eruption that cuts out sunlight for months on end can now stop last year’s record being beaten.

It is rare for climate experts to make such a bold prediction so soon in the year, but they believe that a surge in ocean temperatures in particular now makes it almost inevitable that 2015 will turn out to be the hottest year globally since instruments were first used to gather readings more than 130 years ago.

The average temperature increase will be so much higher than the previous record, set in 2014, that it should melt away any remaining arguments about the so-called “pause” in global warming, which many climate sceptics have promoted as an argument against action on climate change.

Green Park, London

It will mean that the three warmest years since records began in 1880 – 2015, 2014 and 2010 – happened in the past five years, and nine out of the 10 warmest years have all occurred in the 21st century. It demonstrates that global warming is getting worse and underlines the importance of the international meeting in Paris in December to discuss a new legally binding agreement on climate change.

Temperature data on land and sea gathered around the world by US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Nasa), the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) and the UK Met Office all points to a significant increase in global average temperatures this year, both on land and sea.

Egyptian boys in Marsa Matruh (EPA)

“It’s a sure thing. If you want a number, I would say about 99 per cent [certain],” said Professor James Hansen, a veteran climate researcher at Columbia University in New York and former director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “A huge volcano could have an effect, but it had better be Krakatoa-size or bigger and occur within the next month or so if it is to have much effect on 2015’s global temperature,” Professor Hansen told The Independent.

Other scientists agree that the scene is now set for another record hot year that breaks last year’s high by a significant amount – as much as 0.1C higher than the 2014 annual average temperature record of 14.57C. 2015 is currently on track to hit 14.68C.

Visitors crowd at Chinese Sea of Death tourist resort in Daying County to escape high temperatures

“It’s going to be so far ahead of the other record year that it’s going to be beyond the error range,” said Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in Norwich.

“What’s important is not so much the land but the ocean data. The oceans have really picked up in the last 12 months or so,” Professor Jones said. In addition to the temperature increase attributed to the burning of fossil fuels, scientists are also recording a strengthening of El Niño, the current in the Pacific Ocean that causes sea-surface temperatures to rise.

A giant panda puts itself on a huge ice cube to cool off during the heat wave in Wuhan, China (AFP)

Normally when global average temperature records are broken, it is by a tiny fraction of a degree – about 0.01C or 0.02C. However, this year the record is likely to be broken by 10 times this margin, said Jessica Blunden, a climate scientist at Noaa.

“I would expect that we could break the record by close to 0.1C. That’s the range we’re in now. It’s higher than we typically see when we break a record, where we see a hundredth or two-hundredths of a degree. So this is quite a large margin,” Dr Blunden said.

Professor Jones said that the 1998 temperature record, which occurred during an exceptionally strong El Niño, was about 0.1C higher than the then previous record year.

“When we looked back over previous records, if something was 0.1C above the previous record it was the warmest year by a mile,” Professor Jones said.

Children cool off as they play under a fountain next to the Manzanares river on July 21, 2015 in Madrid, Spain (Getty)

“If this was to carry on for the rest of the year there is no way that this would not be the warmest year, and the reason it’s going to continue is because there is an El Niño event going on and it’s getting stronger all the time,” he said.

“It also means that next year will have a head start as well, if the El Niño event goes on to the start of the new year, because of temperatures lagging the El-Niño effect by about six months. “So you can’t really have a pause [in global warming] with the three warmest years at the end of the record,” he added.