Durkin’s Week 14 Mountain West bowl picture

Hawaii quarterback Ikaika Woolsey and coach Norm Chow celebrate their wild win over UNLV, which kept them in the running for the Mountain West title game. (AP Photo/Eugene Tanner)

Fresno State’s win over Nevada means that instead of the bowl picture being settled — a loss would’ve given us six eligible teams and six ineligible teams — the West Division is jumbled. So many possibilities exist, including Hawaii reaching the Mountain West title game. Digest that for a minute. The Rainbow Warriors would still be ineligible for a bowl, but they could take a 5-8 record and play in the title game. Imagine them winning a conference title and not getting to go to a bowl?

We’ll examine all of those West Division possibilities below, but first here are the current standings.

West Division

Conference

Overall

Fresno State

4-3

5-6

San Diego State*

4-3

6-5

Nevada*

3-4

6-5

Hawaii

3-4

4-8

San Jose State

2-5

3-8

UNLV

1-6

2-10

Mountain Division

Conference

Overall

Colorado State*

6-1

10-1

Boise State*

6-1

9-2

Utah State*

6-1

9-3

Air Force*

4-3

8-3

Wyoming

2-5

4-7

New Mexico

1-6

3-8

*Bowl-eligible

Eliminated from bowl contention

First a refresher. Teams must win six games to become bowl-eligible or seven if they’ve utilized the Hawaii rule and elected to play a 13th game. Utah State and UNLV did so, and of course Hawaii also plays 13. Teams may count one victory against a Football Championship Subdivision team toward that win total.

The six wins (or seven) also must come in the regular season. So if Fresno State were to reach the MW title game at 5-7 and then win that to become 6-7, it would not be eligible unless some sort of waiver was approved.

There’s also an agreement to fill a spot in the Cactus Bowl if the Big Ten or Pac-12 can’t fill its spot.

On to the teams:

LOCKS (4): Colorado State, Boise State, Utah State, Air Force

PROBABLE: (2): Fresno State, Nevada

QUESTIONABLE (1): San Diego State

DOUBTFUL (0):

OUT (4): Wyoming, New Mexico, Hawaii, San Jose State, UNLV

A closer look at each team:

Colorado State: The Rams have one more shot to see if Boise State can lose and open the door to the MW title game and a possible New Year’s bowl. The Broncos host Utah State this week and the Aggies definitely are capable of winning. CSU would fall in love with Matt Wells, Kent Myers and the Vigil brothers if that happens. Of course, the Rams still need to handle Air Force, a reasonable task but no picnic.

Boise State: The Broncos may have played their best game of the year in destroying Wyoming on the road. One more victory and Boise State will host the MW title game.

Utah State: I continue to be impressed by this team and getting it done with a fourth-string QB is unreal. The Aggies can still make the MW title game with a win over Boise State and a Colorado State loss to Air Force.

Air Force: I suppose there’s no real shame in losing on the road to San Diego State, but it does prove they are a decent cut below the top three teams in the division.

Fresno State: This is a second straight week with a promotion for Fresno State. From doubtful, to questionable and now to probable. That’s because if the Bulldogs beat Hawaii this week, they are guaranteed a bowl. They’d advance to the Mountain West title game and thanks to the new rule the conference ADs approved this week, that would guarantee a bowl game. Now that bowl guarantee is only valid if they are bowl eligible when making the title game, which must be pointed out because Fresno State can make the title game at 5-7 if it lost, San Diego State lost and Nevada won (read that tie-breaker link). Hawaii can also make the title game at 5-8, but not be bowl eligible. But ignoring all that, it’s pretty simple for Fresno State: beat Hawaii and go to the title game and a bowl. Seems easy enough, but this team has lost to UNLV and Wyoming. But the ‘Dogs are also playing their best ball of the year.

Nevada: My first major demotion I’ve had to make, as Nevada has officially been moved from a lock to just probable. If I’m the Wolf Pack, I still like my bowl chances because they should be able to beat UNLV and get to 7-5 and that’s likely enough. But let’s say they lose to UNLV to finish 6-6. If Fresno State beats Hawaii and wins the West, they get a guaranteed bowl spot. The four Mountain Division teams should all gets spots too. So if San Diego State were to win this week against San Jose State and finish 7-5, there’s a good chance the Aztecs would get the bowl spot ahead of the Wolf Pack based on the head-to-head record. We don’t know for sure, because there’s no official process for selecting Mountain West teams. But Nevada will definitely feel uncomfortable if they lose to UNLV. However, beating UNLV should assure them a bowl (and they should beat UNLV). If both Nevada and SDSU are 7-5, one would think the Wolf Pack’s win over the Aztecs would carry some weight.

San Diego State: The Aztecs’ excitement over getting bowl-eligible Friday was dulled a little by Fresno State’s win over Nevada. A Wolf Pack win would’ve guaranteed San Diego State a bowl since no more than six MW teams would’ve been able to get eligible. Now it’s a little trickier. SDSU can still win the division if it beats San Jose State and Fresno State loses to Hawaii. That’s the one situation in which there’s no ties and there would be an outright champion. The Aztecs wouldn’t win any tie-breaker scenarios. But if Fresno State beats Hawaii, SDSU could be in trouble. I have not extensively studied the possibility of there being options with non-conference affiliated bowls (with San Jose State out, there’s not as much reason for me to do so). Obviously if Boise State or CSU got into one of the New Year’s Bowls, that opens a spot. But right now, it still seems like Marshall has the leg up on that spot. If there are seven eligible teams for six spots, the final spot would come down to Nevada and SDSU. Unless the Aztecs are 7-5 and Nevada’s 6-6, it’s hard to see SDSU getting the spot over a Nevada team it lost to.

Hawaii: The Rainbow Warriors, while not being in the bowl picture, get their own write up so I can explain how they can get into the Mountain West title game. To make it clear, Hawaii would still not be bowl eligible even if it won the conference title. You’ve got to get bowl-eligible in the regular season and so Hawaii needed to have seven regular-season wins. But here’s how they could get to the title game. If they beat Fresno State AND San Diego State loses to San Jose State AND Nevada loses to UNLV, that would create a three-way tie between Hawaii, Fresno State and San Diego State. Going down the run of tie-breakers, the teams remain even after step one by being 1-1 against each other. They’d separate after step two because Hawaii and Fresno State would be 3-2 within the division and San Diego State would be 2-3. At that point, we go back to a two-team tie-breaker and Hawaii wins by having beaten Fresno State. If there were to be a four-way tie with Nevada involved, Fresno State wins that one. That would split in step one because Nevada and Fresno State are 2-1 amongst each other and Hawaii and San Diego State are 1-2 and then Fresno has the head-to-head win over Nevada. So it has to be that three-way tie for Hawaii to make the title game. Crazy, ain’t it?