Wednesday, 5 June 2013

THE MISSILE THREAT AGAINST ISRAEL AND FUTURE SOLUTIONS by Barry Shaw.

Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, recently said
that Israel is “the most threatened nation on the planet.” He was
referring to the threatening ring of missiles aimed at the Jewish state from
regimes such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran.Hamas actually fired 2300 rockets at Israel
in 2012 alone.

It was fitting that the Institute for National Security
Studies (INSS), headed by top national security adviser, Amos Yadlin, addressed
the issue in their conference on “Aerial Threats in the Modern Era”
which focused on the growing dangers faced by Israel and how it is coping with
the threat.

Israel’s enemies have learned that, to cause Israel
significant damage, it requires longer range rockets with more powerful
warheads.For Israel not to properly
defend itself against this threat means death on a massive scale, and wholesale
destruction.

Two problems that Israel continues to face is an enemy that
fires into civilian areas with impunity and who launches its missiles from
within their own civilian population.Both are war crimes, but the international community has been cynically
negligent in doing nothing against these dual human rights crimes. If they fail
to do anything in Syria why should they be expected to raise their voices and
take responsibility when the target is Israel and the perpetrators are Hamas
and Hezbollah. The European Union fails to listen to America, Canada, and
Israel and declare Hezbollah as a terror organization.

How can Israel thwart the missile threat against it? Should
Israel’s tactics only be defensive? Is it sufficient to build a protective
shield over its civilian centers? Or should Israel take offensive measures to
degrade the enemy of its improved capabilities before they are launched against
it?

The successful interception of rockets has led to the perception
by Israel’s enemies that stronger and longer range missiles are the way of the
future for them.

Further, the old challenge for Israel’s defense industry of developing
an interceptor that would akin to hitting a bullet with a bullet, namely an
accurate intercept that could strike an incoming rocket, is already outdated.
Today’s challenge concerns developing the many-on-many scenario in which Israel
is forced to intercept multiple rockets salvos. There have been successes in real battle
conditions where the Iron Dome system intercepted numerous short-range rockets
fired collectively against Israel from Gaza.

1734 rockets were fired at Israel from Gaza in November
2012, according to the Israel National Security Agency monthly summary.85% of them were intercepted. Rockets
predicted to land outside defended positions were not intercepted and allowed
to fall.

Long range missiles behave differently and an 85% success
rate cannot be taken for granted. With ballistic missiles acting much faster in
the critical interception stage, the higher incoming velocity imposes greater
stress and constraints on the interceptor. On the other hand, the increased
size and weight of the ballistic missile offers a better hit rate. Battle space
is expanded and increases the intercept window. Longer range missiles also
offer a more predictable trajectory forecast that favors the interceptor. The
added time enables the launch of anti-missile salvos in the case of attack by
multiple rockets.

Multi-tier and multi-system-type defensive layers may be
employed against such multiple ballistic missile attacks. Such is the face of
the modern battle field for Israel.

The balance of cost and effect comes in to Israel’s benefit with
ballistic missiles and Israel’s defense as compared to the multiple rocket fire
from Gaza or Lebanon based on simple rockets. Ballistic, longer-range warfare
as against the ‘home grown’ kassams swings the cost and effect balance
in Israel’s favor.

Such cost effectiveness will prove even more beneficial to
Israel with the future introduction of laser defense systems into the IDF. The
debate is over the use of either the solid stage laser or the chemical-based
laser such as the Nautilus. The perfection of laser science and technology may
not see the light of day for more than a decade but the efficiency of the laser
anti-missile both in terms of effectiveness and cost-saving will prove
decisive. It is estimated that the Iron Dome cost Israel $900 million per day
per thousand rockets intercepts. Each launch requires the use, and obvious loss,
of very expensive equipment that comes with the explosive response of the
interceptor. Once it’s gone it’s gone, and along with it a huge amount of
money. The charm of the laser system is
that it can be used again and again without the huge expense of throwing away
sophisticated weaponry with each launch. Missile defense costs can be radically
reduced to a daily cost of two million dollars as against the current nine
hundred million dollars, a huge saving.

Laser system tests boast a one hundred percent success rate.
Missing the target, it seems, does not exist, with lasers.Faced with the balance of costs it will be
cheaper to defend against missiles than to launch costly ballistic missiles.
This will cause our enemy to reconsider the effectiveness of developing and
launching hugely expensive missiles that will not cause us damage but will
leave them with the financial headache of using such ineffective weapons on the
battle field of the future.

Up to now Israel has had to face rockets whose targets are
land-based. The introduction into the arena of the Russian S-300 supplied to
Syria is a significant game-changer. The S-300 targets planes. It can be
launched at any plane taking off, landing, or flying over Israel air space from
a neighboring country. No plane is safe, not military and not commercial.

The variety of missiles aimed at Israel is frightening. Some
of the models include Scud, Grad, SS21, Fajr 3, Fajr 5, SP600,Talul, Shihab 3,
Ashura, to name but a few. Each requires the suitable Israeli response based on
the characteristics of each attack missile. Today, Israel has the Iron Dome,
David’s Sling, Magic Wand, Arrow 2 and 3 as part of its defensive shield. It is
essential, despite the military budget cuts, for Israel to enhance its
multi-tier anti-missile architecture.