10.
Communal conflict and death in Northern Ireland, 1969-2001

The conflict in Northern Ireland
that has become known as the Troubles started in the late 1960s and
largely ended following the Good Friday or Belfast Agreement of 1998.
The violence led to over 3,500 deaths. These were concentrated in
certain parts of Northern Ireland which meant that the traumatic
impact of the conflict was disproportionately felt by relatively few
communities. Not surprisingly, interpretations of the conflict are
controversial. Understanding the conflict is made more difficult
because it was not a simple two-sided dispute between republicans
(Catholics trying to create a united Ireland independent from Britain)
and loyalists (Protestants in favour of preserving Northern
Ireland as part of the U.K.). The British state was also a participant
and was not always the neutral third party it would have liked to be
seen as. In many respects the Troubles consisted of two major conflicts and a number
of more minor ones. The first was between republicans
and the security forces, the second comprised of loyalists primarily
using violence against Catholic civilians. At the same time,
paramilitaries on both sides used violence to defend their own
comminities from other paramilitaries, and there was a considerable
amount of internal feuding between different paramilitary factions on both sides. Civilians were frequently casualties in all of these conflicts and were also victims of "punishment beatings" and other acts of "internal policing" by
paramilitaries.

The data on which much of this
chapter is based was compiled by Malcolm Sutton for his book Bear in Mind these
Dead: An index of deaths from the conflict in Ireland, 1969-1993.
It is hosted by the Univesity of Ulster's Conflict Archive in the
Internet
(CAIN). The database contains details of 3,524 deaths from the summer
of 1969 until the end of 2001, of which 93% occurred within Northern
Ireland. It provides the victim's name, date of death, age, gender and
information on their background including their religion and whether
they were members of the security forces or a paramilitary group. For
most of this chapter, the broad classes security forces (mainly the British Army, the Ulster Defence
Regiment, and the Royal Ulster Constabulary), republican paramilitary, loyalist paramilitary and civilian are used,
with civilians being further sub-divided into Catholics and Protestants.
Information on the perpetrator was also included as security forces, republican paramilitary,
or loyalist
paramilitary. The
database also consisted of a description of where the incident took
place which was used to allocate a grid reference to each death. The
Norther Ireland Grid Square Product (see chapter 9) provides contextual
information.

An overview
of conflict-related deaths

The basic figures allow
non-geographical analyses to be conducted as described in the book.
These illustrate the multifacted nature of the conflict, the ways in
which the different conflicts led to different numbers of victims and
the extent to which civilians tended to be the major victims in all of
the conflicts. They also allow the patterns of change over time to be
explored.

Legend

Total deaths per 1km grid square

Fig 10.2: Total deaths per 1km grid square.

Of
more interest on this site is the geographies of conflict. Figure 10.2
shows the total number of deaths per 1km grid square during the
conflict. It clearly shows how important Belfast was as an arena for
violence during the Troubles.

Legend

Deaths per head of population

Fig 10.3: Deaths per head of population.
This is calculated as total killings in each 1km square (figure 10.2)
divided by mean population from the censuses of 1971 and 2001. Only
cells containing at least one killing are shown.

Figure 10.3 standardises the data from figure 10.2 using the underlying
population to give deaths per capita and gives a different picture.
Belfast is still important but less so than before. The border
area of south Armagh becomes clearer as a focus for violence, as do
Londonderry/Derry and rural areas such as East Tyrone and north
Armagh.

Complex geographies
of conflict-related deaths

Legend

Killings by republican paramilitaries

Fig 10.4: The distribution of all killings by republican paramilitaries. The pattern has been smoothed using density smoothing; the legend uses a geometric progression.

Figure
10.4 shows the distribution of the 2,056 killings by republican paramilitaries during the
Troubles.The map is based around the
locations from the Sutton database but a technique called density smoothing has been used to simplify the pattern and make it
more understandable cartographically. Density smoothing blurs
the pattern slightly but is useful in identifying clusters where many events
occurred near to each other. The map shows a distinct geography.The largest number of republican killings
took place in Belfast and Londonderry/Derry.A more dispersed but highly significant cluster is found in South Armagh and Newry.Of
the more
localised clusters, some such as Omagh in the west of Tyrone and
Ballykelly northeast of Londonderry/Derry are largely based on a single
incident that led to large numbers of casualties. Others, such as Armagh City, Lurgan and Portadown, are based on larger numbers of incidents each with fewer casualties.

Legend

Killings of the security forces by republican paramilitaries

Legend

Killings of loyalist paramilitaries by republican paramilitaries

Fig 10.5: The distribution of the killings of (a) the security forces and (b) loyalist paramilitaries by republican paramilitaries.

Figure 10.5 subdivides deaths at the hands of republicans into the security forces and loyalists. Figure 10.5a shows the deaths of the security forces. Perhaps not surprisingly, as these accounted for around half of the republican's victims, these follow a broadly similar pattern to figure 10.4. It is noticeable however that border areas generally seem to have been particularly dangerous. Rural parts of east Tyrone, Fermanagh and even eastern County Londonderry also appear relatively dangerous, caused in part by the use of remote areas to conduct ambushes. Antrim and North Down were probably the safest places for the security forces and it is no coincidence that these areas have small Catholic populations. Figure 10.5b shows the highly contrasting pattern of republican killings of loyalist paramilitaries. There were only 45 of these, compared to over 1,000 killings of the security forces and they show a very different geography being focused in three clusters: the Belfast area stretching south-west to Lurgan and the Maze Prison, Londonderry/Derry, and Strabane. In some ways this is misleading as the Strabane 'cluster' consists of only one death and the Londonderry/Derry cluster of two.

Legend

Killings of Protestant civilians by republican paramilitaries

Legend

Killings of Catholic civilians by republican paramilitaries

Fig 10.6: The distribution of killings of civilians by republican paramilitaries: (a) Protestants and (b) Catholics.

Figure 10.6 shows the distribution of civilians killed by the republicans, subdividing them between Protestants (figure 10.6a) and Catholics (figure 10.6b). The Catholic pattern is concentrated in areas that had the highest Catholic populations and the highest levels of violence by republican paramilitaries including Belfast, South Armagh, east Tyrone and Londonderry/Derry. The Protestant pattern is more dispersed and, as previously identified, has some major local clusters caused by single events, usually bombings in which large numbers of civilians were killed.

Legend

Killings by loyalist paramilitaries

Fig 10.7: The distribution of all killings by loyalist paramilitaries.

Figure 10.7 shows the locations of the 1,020 killings attributed to loyalist paramilitaries. The similarities and differences between it and the killings by republicans shown in figure 10.4 are interesting. As with republicans, many loyalist killings took place in and around Belfast and Londonderry/Derry is also a cluster but perhaps not as pronounced as for republicans. Northern Armagh and east Tyrone again come across as places with many killings showing that these areas were contested by both sets of paramilitary groups. By contrast, many of the other places with clusters of killings by republicans have very few killings by loyalists. These include south Armagh and Newry, Fermanagh, and much of Tyrone. Large areas of County Londonderry, north Antrim and south Down had few loyalist killings which largely corresponds to the pattern for republicans. Another similarity with republicans is the presence of isolated clusters that represent multiple killings in single events. These include: Greysteel north-east of Londonderry/Derry; Loughinisland in south Down; and Cappagh in east Tyrone. The major difference between these attacks and similar mass killings by republicans is that loyalist attacks tended to be shootings rather than bombings. A similarity is that again mainly civilians were usually killed.

Legend

Killings of republicans by loyalist paramilitaries

Fig 10.8: The distribution of killings of republican paramilitaries by loyalist paramilitaries.

Figure 10.8 shows the distribution of loyalist killings of republicans. Of the 42 of these, 25 occurred in and around Belfast but none occurred in Londonderry/Derry. It is important to note that many of the remaining 'clusters' are again only single deaths and these are concentrated in north Armagh and east Tyrone. Most of the remainder occurred on or near the border between County Londonderry and Antrim. No map of loyalist killings of the security forces has been included as there were 14 of these of which ten occurred in Belfast.

Legend

Killings of Catholic civilians by loyalist paramilitaries

Legend

Killings of Protestant civilians by loyalist paramilitaries

Fig 10.9: The distribution of killings of civilians by loyalist paramilitaries: (a) Catholics and (b) Protestants.

Figures 10.9a and 10.9b show the killings of civilians by loyalists. Catholic civilians represent 67 percent of loyalist victims so figure 10.9a is very similar to the overall pattern of loyalist killings shown in figure 10.7. The distribution of the 132 Protestant civilian deaths perpetrated by loyalists is interestingly different from the other patterns. Almost three-quarters of these deaths occurred in and around Belfast and some of the remainder took place in the parts of north Armagh and east Tyrone in which many other deaths occurred. However, there are other clusters in parts of south Antrim and east Down where there were few other deaths. This suggests that these killings were occurring in areas with large Protestant majorities and lower levels of violence rather than contested areas. They may have been the consequence of feuding or punishment killings.

Legend

Killings of republicans by the security forces

Fig 10.10: The distribution of killings of republican paramilitaries by the security forces.

Legend

Killings of Catholic civilians by the security forces

Fig 10.11: The distribution of killings of Catholic civilians by the security forces.

Figures 10.10 and 10.11 respectively show the deaths of republican paramilitaries and Catholic civilians killed by the security forces who, between them, represent 85 percent of their victims. Apart from the clusters in Belfast, Londonderry/Derry and Strabane, the pattern of killings is quite dispersed although County Londonderry and Antrim, away from the two urban centres, had very low levels of these deaths. Killings of republicans were more concentrated in Armagh, both north and south, and east Tyrone, as well as the three urban areas described above. Security force killings of Protestant civilians and loyalist paramilitaries have not been mapped because of their low numbers.

All killings by religious background

Killings by republican paramilitaries by religious background

Killings by loyalist paramilitaries by religious background

Killings by the security forces by religious background

Fig 10.12: The distribution of killings by the religious background of the 1km grid square in which the killing took place. (a) All killings, (b) killings by republican paramilitaries, (c) killings by loyalist paramilitaries, and (d) killings by the security forces. The legend refers to the victim of the killing. Percent Catholic calculated as the average over 1971, 1991 and 2001. 'Rural' refers to places which have a total population over the three decades of less than 50.

The importance of Northern Ireland's religious demography in shaping these patterns has already been hinted at. Figure 10.12a makes this explicit by summarising the religious demography of the grid squares in which killings took place. These are subdivided by the organisation responsible for the killings in figures 10.12b, c and d. The background religious demography is calculated using the total number of Catholics recorded in the censuses of 1971, 1991 and 2001 divided by the total population in these years. Three clear peaks are discernable from the graphs: The largest is in what will be termed 'Catholic areas' - those where Catholics made up 80 to 90 percent of the population, where 20 percent of all of the killings that took place in the Troubles took place. The second peak is in 'Protestant areas' where Catholics made up less than 10 percent of the population. These areas saw 12.7 percent of the total killings, however the characteristics of the conflict in terms of perpetrators and victims was very different. The third peak of violence is in 'mixed areas,' grid squares that were 50 to 60 percent Catholic which again show different characteristics.

Conclusions

The maps show that conflict-related deaths during the Troubles were highly geographically concentrated. Most of Northern Ireland did not directly experience fatal violence although the indirect effects in terms of political tension, fear, and knowledge of victims were more widely spread. The spatial concentration of violence, however, meant that some neighborhoods suffered the direct impacts of the conflict disproportionately both at the time and after it was over. This legacy of violence, evidenced by high rates of anti-depressant use, social deprivation, out migration and communal malaise, has blighted parts of central Belfast and parts of the city of Londonderry/Derry. The maps also show the multifaceted nature of the conflict with differing geographies of death for killings committed by republicans, loyalists and the security forces. Territoriality is clearly important as both something to control externally at the expense of the 'other group.' Overall, the maps indicate that the Troubles were not a two-sided conflict but had three parties with very different agendas.