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National polls while important don't matter nearly as much as state polling and its effect on the Electoral College. NPR has a map I check on a regular basis. For the past month or so it has been Obama - 210, McCain 200 with 270 needed to win. Today I checked much to my horror this is what I found:

As each day passes I am becoming more and more concerned that our future Vice-president's foreign policy will be based upon a trip to visit Alaska National Guard troops stationed in Kuwait and she can see Russia from her state.

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"Let us give pubicity to HV/AIDS and not hide it..." "One of the things destroying people with AIDS is the stigma we attach to it." Nelson Mandela

That makes me worry less. People need to calm down about this post-GOP convention bounce. It's only due to Palin, not McCain -- and it's feasibly reversible in that sense. Palin's unfavorability ratings have begun to rise as voters begin to slowly digest the facts. There aren't many people (outside of "the base") who will be willing to support someone who is into banning library books, charges per diems for working at home, repeatedly lies about things that have been repeatedly debunked in the media, and once charged women for rape kits because she believed the abortifacient drugs conflicted with her religious beliefs.

National polls while important don't matter nearly as much as state polling and its effect on the Electoral College. NPR has a map I check on a regular basis. For the past month or so it has been Obama - 210, McCain 200 with 270 needed to win. Today I checked much to my horror this is what I found:

As each day passes I am becoming more and more concerned that our future Vice-president's foreign policy will be based upon a trip to visit Alaska National Guard troops stationed in Kuwait and she can see Russia from her state.

Don't worry puddin' we're going to win. PA ain't no tossup. I could link you to several polling sites showing Obama with a slight lead in the electoral college.

Actually recent polling has had PA getting tighter, and I do think there is a potential here for things being horribly more tight than imagined, though I still think it will be pulled off. PA is a strange state. Looks on a map like it would be really liberal, but that's actually on the case in the area where I live -- the rest of the state we call Pennsyltucky.

But you know that things can quickly change in the political landscape and we'll have to see how this economic crisis plays out -- Phil Gramm's hand are all over it, and he was McCain's chief advisor in this area.

Actually recent polling has had PA getting tighter, and I do think there is a potential here for things being horribly more tight than imagined, though I still think it will be pulled off. PA is a strange state. Looks on a map like it would be really liberal, but that's actually on the case in the area where I live -- the rest of the state we call Pennsyltucky.

Hush, you'll give the Woods the vapors. He's from Kentucky you know. Never fear Woods, PA will stay blue, just like my balls.

A lot of TV's tallking heads used to say while Georgia (my state) would normally be solidly McCain's, the Libertarian (yeah, right) Bob Barr could pull away enough Repubgnants away so Obama might have a chance. I haven't heard them mention this as much since Plain appeared on the ticket, but they never talk about our state as much. Trust me, there are whole sections of this state who genuflect at the altar of Barr, and unlike other third parties, he will be on the actual ballot. (Nader, for example, won't be.)

One of the truest adages in politics is "If you're explaining, you're losing". Since July the McCain campaign has been shrewdly setting the debate frame (Drill Now, Pay Less!, The Surge is Working!, Republicans Love Women! Obama wants to have National Sex Ed claasses for your kindegartners....)

Meanwhiile the Obama camps been running ads saying "not true" or "how sleazy" instead of ads that would put the McCain camp on its heels, forcing it to do some explaining (ads with themes such as "McCain is technologically illiterate in an era when the US is fighting to maintain its shrinking edge in IT emoployment, John McCain and his econ advisors feel that Americans are just being whiners and should suck it up as they lose their jobs and homes, while the McCAin/Palin ticket argues for a continuation of the same diastorous lassez- faire policies that have lead us to the point, Sarah Palin is a shill for the oil industry...)

I feel that the zeigeist will still be too much for the Repubs to overcome this time but the Obama folks are doing "too much explaining, and not enough blaming"....

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“Keep up the good work.... And God bless you.” -- Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

Spending money in Georgia is a waste and mistake. I'd spend MUCH more money in Virginia and NC before going down there.

It's like a Republican spending money in New York... silly.

Nope....down 7 in the polls with a viable Senate candidate in Jim Martin (versus the horrid Saxby Chambliss), a few bucks in Georgia makes sense,as explaining the field that the Repubs have too defend. We were told the the Obama campaign would change the electoral map...this is one a handful of places to do that...

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“Keep up the good work.... And God bless you.” -- Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

(CNN) – The bounce John McCain received in national opinion polls following his party's convention and the selection of Sarah Palin to the GOP presidential ticket appears to have evaporated, a new CNN poll of polls suggests.

In the latest CNN survey of several recent national polls, Obama and McCain are locked in a dead heat at 45 percent each with 10 percent who remain undecided with 50 days remaining until Election Day.

“When we average the latest national polls, it is increasingly clear that neither candidate has any serious momentum at the moment,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “The convention bounces have faded and left us with a dead heat. Even though we are now in the final stretch of this historic marathon campaign for the presidency, the White House is still genuinely up for grabs.”

CNN's latest poll of polls consists of three recent surveys: Newsweek (September 10-11), Gallup (September 12-14), and Diageo/Hotline (September 12-14). It does not have a sampling error.

This is off topic but talking about polls here is an interesting article by Scott Adams, creator of the cartoon Dilbert, on which candidate would be better for the economy in the long term. I was impressed that Adams took it upon himself to fund such a survey.

National polls while important don't matter nearly as much as state polling and its effect on the Electoral College. NPR has a map I check on a regular basis. For the past month or so it has been Obama - 210, McCain 200 with 270 needed to win. Today I checked much to my horror this is what I found:

As each day passes I am becoming more and more concerned that our future Vice-president's foreign policy will be based upon a trip to visit Alaska National Guard troops stationed in Kuwait and she can see Russia from her state.

Still don't see JAW-juh as a great way for him spend time. But hey -- don't look now, but West Virginia (you know, the state where Obama was told he'd never come close) has been placed in the toss-up column on pollster.com

And they now have Pennsylvania as not just "lean" but "strong" Dem. We were originally a battleground, and in fact Obama is doing four events here on Saturday.

I don't want to jinx anything, but at this point it's getting to not "if" but "by how much" he wins, and what that does down ticket. Ed Rollins, the eternal Republican party strategist, actually conceded tonight on CNN that Obama would win, and that Republicans could potentially lose TEN Senate races.

I don't want to jinx anything, but at this point it's getting to not "if" but "by how much" he wins, and what that does down ticket. Ed Rollins, the eternal Republican party strategist, actually conceded tonight on CNN that Obama would win, and that Republicans could potentially lose TEN Senate races.

That's my point. We've got a Senate candidate here, Jim Martin; pro labor, pro ENDA, pro-choice who is now running 2 frickking points behind Saxby Chambliss, one of the most odious characters in the Senate. The voter registrations we having been running for Obama are having a huge effect. African American turnout as a percentage of total turnout in early voting is running at 40 (!) percent. This is the Senate seat that could make the difference between a pickup of 9 (beholding to Lieberman) or 10 (not beholding).....

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“Keep up the good work.... And God bless you.” -- Sarah Palin, to members of the Alaskan Independence Party, 2008

Actually, in historical terms, it's only occurred once -- meaning turning around an 11 pt. lead 3 weeks out from the election (or so it was just noted on Meet the Press). And that was Reagan, and clearly considering the comparisons Obama = Reagan, not McCain, in terms of dynamics.

The only way I see McCain gaining ANY leverage, is if an al Qaeda suitcase bomb goes off in Times Square. Go read the internals of the latest Newsweek poll. It's not just that Obama is 11 pts. ahead, but on the separate questions on issues he leads McCain by healthy double digits on every single issue save one (terrorism). He even leads McCain on the Iraq war.