Pro-Lisbon campaign still to get off ground

ANALYSIS:An absence of Ministers supporting Dick
Roche's 'Vote Yes' plea on Lisbon has left the running to a
diverse, at times conflicting, No campaign

SPANISH PHILOSOPHER George Santayana, a man never faced with a
European Union referendum, once said that those who cannot remember
the past are condemned to repeat it.

During the first Nice Treaty campaign, the government was
lackadaisical in its preparations, and unsuccessful when it tried
to motivate supporters to come out. Today, Fianna Fáil insists
that Ireland is not looking at a repeat of that campaign: that
there is a plan, and that it is being followed.

If so, it is hard to discern, since few senior figures in
Government seem to be making it "their life's work to get it
passed", to quote one Minister.

Up to recently, politicians and officials were reasonably
sanguine, believing that Lisbon would be ratified relatively
easily; with no outrageous display of Europhilia, but by a
comfortable margin nevertheless.

However, last weekend's Sunday Business Post poll has sent sharp
ripples of concern within Fine Gael and Labour; but most in Fianna
Fáil profess to be remaining calm, even though, privately,
some acknowledge that problems exist. The party's campaign - which
is said to be better organised than anything previously done for an
EU campaign - will not get going until May 12th. The belief is that
the public can only be interested in matters European for a brief
period, and that there was little point wasting their sweetness
upon the desert air before now. Perhaps they are right, perhaps
not.

The FF campaign will push a positive message about Ireland's
membership of the European Union over the last 35 years, and how
membership will be positive in the future.

However, No campaigners have been quick to try to narrow the
Government's ground, with Libertas proclaiming in its slogan:
"Europe's been great for Ireland. Let's keep it that way."

Up to now, Minister of State Dick Roche has fought a lonely but
determined campaign to get out the message on the airwaves about
the referendum on behalf of the Government. Indeed, he has been out
far too often for his own good, and for the campaign's, since many
find Roche too wordy and argumentative for their tastes.

However, Roche has been doing what others are not. When they do
talk about Lisbon, most other Ministers do so in a way that is
perfunctory and that does little to persuade the undecided.

The strategy has left a lot of room for the diverse, disunited
but active No campaign to send out their - sometimes conflicting -
messages for months. In fact, the No campaign was given even more
time than it otherwise might have had because of Taoiseach Bertie
Ahern's dithering over the date.

Undoubtedly, it had originally been intended to hold the
referendum from the middle of May onwards, well before the Leaving
Certificate examinations and early summer breaks.

The difficulties surrounding Ahern over his financial affairs,
however, hindered efforts to create a tight focus on getting Lisbon
passed, numerous quarters have privately admitted.

And Ahern's decision wrongly to lay the blame for school water
charges at the door of the European Commission was manna from
heaven for those calling for a No vote.

Some of the timing problems facing Ahern were created by his
desire to meet his past promise to put a children's referendum to
the people.

However, the wording of such a referendum could not be agreed.
Indeed, the task is still proving to be difficult to surmount for
the Oireachtas Committee on Children.

The Referendum Commission was set up on March 6th, and work had
already been done beforehand to lay the groundwork for its public
information campaign. Instead, the referendum is taking place
anything from a fortnight to a month later than planned, and some
groups usually supportive of EU polls have become more jaundiced,
particularly the elderly, say some TDs. Leading voters with
opinions unformed is one thing, changing

opinions that have been formed is quite another.

In addition, there is evidence that officials were already
thinking about the aftermath of Lisbon's ratification even before
they began planning for the referendum itself.

A clear, consolidated treaty text was slow in coming; partly
because officials rightly believed that no one would read it, but
it did allow the No campaign to lay charges of concealment.

Meanwhile, the private acknowledgment by the Department of
Foreign Affairs to the British that the referendum needed to be
held before the French EU presidency - a statement of the
politically obvious given Nicolas Sarkozy's tendency to opine -
also created suspicions.

So far, TDs have found that most of the public is simply not
interested in hearing about Lisbon; yet ever so quick to complain
that they are not being told anything about it. In addition,
significant elements of the media have been prepared to follow the
same line, consuming time and space that could actually have been
used to inform.

And there is the confusion caused by a host of issues that have
nothing to do with Lisbon, or that are simply untrue: with
everything from abortion, euthanasia, and an alleged dastardly plan
to limit family sizes thrown in.

For the No campaign, the current campaign is also breaking new
ground. It has never been so strong before a campaign kicked into
top gear. Libertas, though it is only one part of the No campaign
and not one whose views are shared by others calling for the same
result, is the best-funded No lobby to date.

Privately, senior Government figures are keen to target its
founder, Declan Ganley, particularly over his business ties with US
defence companies.

Playing the man, and not the ball, is sometimes a risky business
in politics, and Ganley, perhaps in preparation, has moved somewhat
into the Libertas background in recent weeks.

Though the influence and reach of Libertas can be overstated,
its presence is significant in that it is the first time a
pro-business lobby has called for a No vote.

And others who would have been strong campaigners for a Yes vote
- the trade unions and the farmers - are playing hard-ball in
search of concessions on issues unrelated to Lisbon.

Both were uninvolved in the first Nice campaign, too; and their
recruitment, along with wider elements of civil society, was key to
getting it passed the second time around.

The question now is whether there will be time, if they are
willing, for the unions and the Irish Farmers' Association to
change their tune close to polling day, and to be heard and heeded
by their supporters.

This week, Fianna Fáil TDs remain relatively blase about
Lisbon: the issue does not interest them very much and it is not
coming up on the doorsteps.

Indeed, some of them are being guided by the IFA, which argues
that EU commissioner Peter Mandelson's World Trade talks
negotiating stance threatens Irish agriculture. However, it should
matter a great deal to FF TDs, if only for the most narrow and
political of reasons, since it will take place little over a month
after Brian Cowen becomes taoiseach.

A defeat on an issue so fundamental would threaten Cowen's
position and his ability to create a new relationship with the
Irish people after 11 years of Ahern.

During a passionate display in the Dáil on Tuesday, Cowen
argued forcefully for a Yes vote, and he has done so already at
some of the party's 25 public meetings held so far.

No doubt Cowen will do so repeatedly once FF's campaign gets
under way.

And he will have to do so, and not just because he thinks a Yes
vote is in Ireland's interests.