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Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Our current iteration of market fundamentals out to 2035 continues to show a global market in surplus out to 2020. However, we now project the surplus to peak at below 1 Mt in 2018, before moving to a neutral to deficit balance out to 2022. Our analysis assumes Chinese production adjustments kick in during 2018 and 2019 to move the market back towards balance. The risk is that these adjustments do not fully take place and that China continues to grow output at a fast pace. Under this scenario we believe that the requirement to adjust output lower would be kicked further down the road.

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