Florida's close elections set stage for 2016

Florida's suspenseful election results this week set the stage for the state's pivotal role in the 2016 presidential campaign, when Republicans Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush could be contenders.

Close contests this year reaffirmed Florida's significance as the nation's largest swing state, sharply divided and capable of shifting between political parties.

"I like the way things are going," said Michael Meehan, 53, of Lantana, an independent voter and small business owner. "Things are turning around in the state."

But Democrats won two of three close congressional races, providing a rare bright spot for the beleaguered party of President Barack Obama.

"Given its swing-state status, people are going to have to take Florida seriously," said Richard Conley, associate professor of political science at the University of Florida. "As we know from 2000, it can make or break an election, not to be ignored."

Voters can expect to see some early maneuvering, fundraising and visits to the state by potential presidential candidates preparing for the next campaign. That likely will include Hillary Clinton, the presumed Democratic frontrunner. Bush and Rubio, still deciding whether to run, can do their politicking from home.

"If you see Hillary and others who have aspirations coming down to Palm Beach and talking to older voters, it could be a sign that something's going on," Conley said.

While campaigning outside her polling place in Weston, Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, acknowledged on Tuesday that the governor's race was especially important "because we are the biggest swing state. The next election cycle is the presidential, so whoever is running the government, whoever is in charge here, it gives an advantage to the party that is campaigning for president."

The presidential election is expected to draw a much larger number of voters, especially Hispanics, which could help Democratic candidates on the ballot.

Frank Torres, a political analyst in Orlando, predicts record spending to reach Hispanic voters with Spanish-language ads and mailings. "Candidates will attempt to speak the language on TV and radio," he said. "Voters appreciate that."

Florida was once part of the Democratic "Solid South" but became a reliably Republican bastion in presidential politics before turning into a swing state in the 1990s.

In 2000, George W. Bush won Florida — and, as a result, the presidential election — by 537 votes out of nearly 6 million cast. Obama just barely won Florida in 2008 and 2012.

Tuesday's elections featured several close contests that carried forward the recent trend.