GameNight: Miami vs Ohio State

-- Evan Dorey's game previews & rankings are based on
Elo Ratings. Elo Ratings are fairly simple, all teams are assigned an
initial number of points, which is the same for all teams, eliminating
preseason bias. Then, as the season progresses, when a team wins it gains
points, and when it loses it drops points. The amount of points that are
gained or lost depend on the level of the opponent (beating a cupcake gets
you little, beating #1 will be a big increase), the scoring margin of the
game (which is capped), and the game’s location. To take a look at Evan's
College Basketball Elo Ratings, visit
his website or
blog where he discusses the
rankings along with other statistical observations about big games and
interesting teams.

With the Big Ten hoping
for a better showing in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge then they’ve had in
previous seasons, an important game to avoid a major blowout would be
getting a win from one of their three undefeated teams, #69 Ohio St.
(3-0), who travel to Florida to face #74 Miami (FL) (4-1).

Ohio State
has still only played three games, making them one of the least active teams
in the country. Also, one of those games was a pathetic offensive showing
from Samford, who shot 19% en route to scoring 22 points. In the entire
game. They also had a close game with a less than impressive Bowling Green
team, so we don’t really have much of a feeling for them yet. Miami
has a much more robust schedule, having lost to Connecticut in the Virgin
Islands, but putting up some good wins over well-regarded non-power
conference teams in Southern Miss and San Diego.

The problem with the
Samford game is that it really colors Ohio St.’s defensive statistics, to
the point where they look like the nation’s preeminent defensive team. I
think they’ll end up being a good defensive team, as they have been each of
the last 4 years, but they’re not a dominant defensive unit either. Still,
we can look at the areas where they have been relatively weaker or stronger.
The Buckeyes have been stronger defending the inside than the outside, but
despite this they have not been spectacular on the defensive glass. They
also don’t force a ton of turnovers, which is not really surprising
considering Thad Matta’s relatively slow-paced approach to the game. One of
the areas where they have been very good in all three games is not
committing fouls, and if they can combine this with continued interior
strength, it would be a good sign for the rest of the season. Countering the
Ohio St. defense, Miami has been a good offensive team, though not through
what you’d consider the main part of offense, shooting. The Hurricanes’
shooting numbers are merely average, but they turn the ball over rarely and
do well on the offensive boards, so their possession advantage tends to
cover for their shooting.

Offensively, Ohio St.
hasn’t been that great considering their level of competition, but one area
where they have been solid is inside scoring. However, the Buckeyes take
most of their shots from behind the arc, where they haven’t been great.
Further compounding this problem is the Hurricane’s defensive play, which
has so far been very successful in stopping threes from being made. Ohio St.
also doesn’t crash the offensive glass much, especially given their size and
athleticism advantage in the first three games. Miami’s defense is mostly a
three-point defense one, but like Ohio St. they also foul quite rarely.

Jack McClinton, the
talented Miami guard, is off to a less than stellar start so far this
season, though he does have plenty of time to pick up his game. His point
average is about the same as previous seasons, but his percentages are
already below last season’s without the effect of ACC play, and he is just
5-15 overall, and 2-11 from three, in his last two games. Still, when his
three ball is going in, McClinton is a very dangerous scorer who can hang a
big number on an opposing team, as he did to UConn with 27 points.
Fortunately, junior forward Dwayne Collins has really picked up his play
from last season, has been strong on the boards, getting 10 per game and
averaging a double-double. Collins has also improved his free throw shooting
from 50% last year to nearly 75% so far this year, and if he can keep that
up, it will be very beneficial, as he gets to the line quite often. Beyond
those two, there are some less statistically distinct parts that could step
up as a solid offensive option beside McClinton, but haven’t shown much
consistency, including the likes of Brian Asbury, Lance Hurdle and Cyrus
McGowan.

B.J. Mullens is winning
the most disappointing freshman of the year
poll in a romp, and it’s not hard to see why, given his disappointing
numbers. Mullens has played only sparingly, so I’m somewhat reluctant to
make any major pronouncements yet, but in 49 minutes of play he has 17
points and 7 boards. Not bad, but spread over three games it’s certainly not
what was expected. And just 10 field goal attempts for him in these three
appearances is also disappointing. Maybe someone who has had a chance to see
him play can let me know below if it’s a matter of him being a raw prospect,
or if it’s more about Thad Matta’s usage of him. It’s very puzzling to me to
see him play so little, especially when I haven’t heard anything about
injury concerns. Two guys who have done the job for the Buckeyes are
sophomores, Evan Turner and Jon Diebler. Both are averaging double-digits in
scoring, and are shooting quite well, with the 6-7 Turner focusing on
getting points inside, while the 6-6 Diebler has shot well from three.
Turner has also been effective rebounding, and has been good at the line,
though in relatively few attempts. Another forward to watch is Dallas
Lauderdale, another sophomore who is an inside focused player. He’s had at
least 3 blocks in each game so far, and looks like he can really cause some
defensive havoc against Miami.

Ohio St.’s Samford game
skews the numbers so far that it’s hard to really get a sense for them.
However, I will say that given Miami’s home court advantage, and the edge in
experience from a senior and junior laden roster, the Hurricanes will take a
high single-digit win. However, B.J. Mullens is a major question mark for
me. If he indeed possesses the ability to take over a game this early in his
career, he could turn the game the Buckeyes’ way in a hurry. Barring that, I
just don’t see a young team playing it’s first road game of the year, having
not looked that great against their one decent opponent, coming in and
beating a solid if not spectacular Miami team.