Mike Fine: Can the Red Sox go back-to-back?

Monday

Oct 29, 2007 at 12:01 AM

For the Red Sox, the hard work has just begun.

Mike Fine

For the Red Sox, the hard work has just begun.

Winning two titles in four years -- after a drought of 86 years -- says that they've arrived, but we all know it's not that simple. Free agents, youngsters, aging veterans, disgruntled players, newly acquired talent and the simple will to pay the price all over again tend to work against the theory that the team is all set for the near future.

On the other hand, you've got to hand it to the Sox. They've got a great manager who keeps them in the moment, they've got an ownership group that's committed to providing resources, they've got a general manager who has a good eye for talent and they've got a tremendous fan base that helps keep them honest.

Will the Red Sox go back-to-back? Good question. Here's are some of the issues that will dog them over the winter:

Q: Well, WILL the Red Sox go back-to-back?

A: We can't fully assess their chances until February, perhaps, after all player personnel issues have been addressed. Vegas outlets have them listed as a 5-1 favorite, the Yankees coming in second at 6-1. They do have key elements in place, though: ace pitcher, set-up man, closer, power hitters, speed, defense, leadership, etc.

Q: How far should the Sox go to re-sign Mike Lowell?

A: The free agent wasn't just the MVP of the World Series. He was the quiet leader with his professionalism and steady excellence, picking up 120 RBI and playing terrific third base. Let Lowell go, and you've got a big hole. Lowell wants to return. The 33-year-old will likely want a three- or four-year deal worth $36 million to 48 million. The Red Sox will likely want to go for two years at no more than $20 million.

Q: Should the Sox make a run at Alex Rodriguez?

A: Absolutely not. TOO EXPENSIVE! A-Rod opted out of his remaining three years at $27 million a year, so what does that tell you about his requirements? It tells you that the Red Sox would be better off signing Lowell. Plus, the baggage that A-Rod brings, from his PR gaffes to the general circus that surrounds him, probably works in stark contrast to the nature of this team.

Q: What becomes of Coco Crisp if Jacoby Ellsbury is the heir apparent at center field?

A: Crisp is under contract for another two years and $10.5 million. He's a goner. His weak bat (.182) in the playoffs doomed him. He was a spectacular Gold Glove center fielder, for sure, and he saved numerous games with his glove, but Ellsbury's speed and his bat (.360 regular season, .438 in the World Series) make him the hands-down future center fielder of the Sox.

Crisp will have good trade value. He batted .297 and .300 for Cleveland in two seasons before coming to Boston.

Q: What of Curt Schilling?

A: The ball is in Schilling's court. The Sox have no problem re-signing the big lug to a one-year contract at reasonable money (perhaps $8 million), but if he's looking for a multi-year deal at $12 million per, he'll be moving on. Schilling is now no better than a No. 4 pitcher.

Q: What of Tim Wakefield?

A: The Sox hold an annual $4 million option on the veteran knuckleballer, but there's a sense that because of continuing shoulder problems he might have reached the end of the line. What'll probably happen is that he'll rehab the shoulder through the end of the year before making a decision.

Q: And one other veteran pitcher, Mike Timlin?

A: Timlin was effective once he overcame his early oblique problems, and still holds value to the team. He played for "only" $2.8 million this season, a reasonable expense.

Q: Will we have Eric Gagne to kick around any longer?

A: No.

Q: If Wakefield is gone, does that spell the end of Doug Mirabelli's days in Boston?

A: Yes. Mirabelli is a great guy to have around, and a valuable behind-the-scenes resource for the pitching staff and starter Jason Varitek, but his weak hitting makes him expendable. Even if Wakefield stays, Kevin Cash, while not a power hitter himself, has more upside and proved he could handle the knuckleball. There's always a chance of going outside the organization for a backup, too.

Q: What will the 2008 outfield look like?

A: Manny Ramirez, Ellsbury and J.D. Drew, who, presumably, will begin to play as he did late in the season, finishing with a .270 batting average while hitting safely in nine straight playoff games before the World Series clincher (he went 11-for-40 n the ALCS and World Series). Backups could include Bobby Kielty and Brandon Moss.

Q: What's the real challenge in getting back to the World Series?

A: The American League. For the past four years the Sox have been in a tooth-and-nail fight with the rest of the A.L. In '04 they couldn't beat out the Yankees for the A.L. East title, but overcame them in an ALCS death struggle. They were outclassed by the rest of the A.L. in the next two seasons and in '07 had to again come through in the ALCS over an outstanding Cleveland team.

The real World Series for the Sox has been the ALCS. The actual Fall Classic has been little more than a scrimmage against inferior ball clubs.