China in South Asia: Influence and Feedback

Presentation made at the British High Commission, New Delhi, 22 August 2013.

Outline

A. Developing countries, Duo

– ideological connect

non-Western

genuine Marxist feeling in the unity of the Third World

minus the Maoist “you’re either with us or against us”

coalition building

– common national interests

anti-Western / non-Western

international organizations

trade

energy security

B. China Solo

economic interests

‘going out’ strategy

South Asia/Africa as a stepping stone to Western markets

Pakistan, Afghanistan, Myanmar

lives expendable

Chinese engineers in Pakistan

buying out insurgents

Taliban, Kachins, Wa

Bangladesh

rising labour costs in China

ready-made garment sector

infrastructure development

overcapacity in China

security implications in India

Western Development Strategy

Tibet, Sichuan, Yunnan

BCIM (Kunming Initiative)

the Northeast focus of India’s Look East Policy is an afterthought, perhaps even inspired by China’s Western Development Strategy

consequences for countries where China is invested

a Chinese approach to environmental issues

a replication of Chinese labour standards

corruption

geostrategic interests

Pakistan

balancing India

Pakistan’s historical role as mediator in Sino-US rapprochement

arms sales

nuclear weapons/technology

terrorism

Karakoram Highway

Myanmar

energy pipelines

UNSC veto

C. China Numero Uno

– ideological

Beijing model – political and economic

not so much anti-Western as just Chinese

support for an alternative Chinese universe?

Chinese exceptionalism

Confucius Institutes

from a Beijing bookstore

– resources

hydrocarbons

competitive bidding

despite CNPC-OVL MoUs

water

reluctance to share information

Brahmaputra, Sutlej

Indian positions can sometimes be hysterical, and needlessly so

– military

modernization is inevitable and so is an equivalent Indian response

assertiveness on the LAC is to be expected – but it is not as if the Indians are sitting back and doing nothing

the ‘string of pearls’ is rubbish

D. Feedback – How does South Asia influence China?

– Indian democracy

chaos?

Indian democracy has often been referred to by Chinese elite as being chaotic but that has not stopped the CPC has relationships with several South Asian political parties, including the Congress (I) and the BJP

ordinary Chinese are learning from Indian experiences

during the height of the Anna Hazare anti-corruption campaign, many Chinese paid close attention

there were Chinese equivalents of the Indian website ipaidabribe.com which were soon taken down by the authorities

constitutionalism?

Chinese delegations have visited India (including, the ICS) to study about electoral systems and other legal affairs

the Chinese are well aware of the regulatory strengths of the Indian economic system

stock exchanges

statistical system (post-1949)

with increasing demands from within Chinese civil society and human rights activists for the state to actually implement the provisions of its own constitution, one can be sure that rule of law and the Indian political system will receive increasing attention in China

– religion

Buddhism

cooperation – Nalanda University however, does not seem to be going anywhere anytime soon, despite several official MoUs

competition – rival Buddhist conferences have been held by both countries

Tibet factor

Dalai Lama’s succession and its consequences are likely to increase tensions between the two sides

Islam

is China the next Islamist terror frontier?

Xinjiang radicalization

Hui Muslims

the relationship of the Chinese state with its religious communities is slowly but surely changing