In 2008, 54% of likely voters identified as Democrat or lean Democrat. 42% of likely voters identified as GOP or lean GOP. In other words, the electorate, including independents who lean towards a particular party, was D+12. This year, however, the Democrat advantage has disappeared. 49% of likely voters today identify as GOP or lean GOP. Just 46% of likely voters are or lean towards the Democrats. This is a 15-point swing towards the GOP from 2008 to an outright +3 advantage for the GOP. By comparison, in 2004, when Bush won reelection, the electorate was evenly split, with each party getting support from 48% of likely voters.

If these numbers are within even a few points of what this survey suggests, then Romney will win decisively and the GOP will pick up the Senate. We are likely standing on the edge of another GOP wave election.

There is no ‘Democrat’ party. 0bama, Pelosi and Reid have transformed the party into the Socialist party. This irks me no end; That they STILL call themselves Democrats! THEY AREN’T. I wish they’d STOP HIDING BEHIND THAT BOGUS LABEL.

The one thing that I think will make this thing tighter than everyone is hoping is the “entitlement” crowd thinking they will lose their welfare checks, food stamps, Obama phones, etc. under a Romney administration. Add that to historic fraud, and I am afraid this thing is going to be a nail biter.

17
posted on 10/27/2012 10:34:38 AM PDT
by catfish1957
(My dream for hope and change is to see the punk POTUS in prison for treason)

My swag at the overall vote has been 55% Romney and 40% O with 5% going to 3rd parties. No meat behind the swag but gut feelings and wishful thinking maybe because I do not want a close race, it needs to be define so that there are no mixed messages or open doors to angst. We will know for sure in about 10 days and a few hours...

18
posted on 10/27/2012 10:37:30 AM PDT
by jafojeffsurf
(Return to the Constitution)

Just MHO, but I also believe there will be a fair number of people who still self-identify as a Democrat, but will either pull the lever for Romney or vote "present" on the Presidential race.

Indeed, looking at the internals of the most recent poll done here in Oregon, of the republican undecideds 40% said they would ultimately vote for Romney if they had to choose someone right now, while 60% remained uncommitted or would pick someone other than Romney or Obama. ZERO % said they would vote for Obama. When they asked the undecided democrats the same question, Romney and Obama BOTH got 21% of that vote, while the other 58% remained uncommitted or would pick someone else.

This would seem to indicate that, yes, many democrats will ultimately decide to vote for Romney, and that the undecideds will break heavily for Romney.

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