Good Monday evening to one and all. I continue to track the big change toward a wintry pattern over the next few weeks. Old Man Winter fires a warning shot at us this weekend as a strong cold front moves in by Black Friday.

This front will produce some showers ahead of it as temps crash into the upper 30s by Friday evening. Snow flurries will be possible into Saturday with highs only in the 30s a good bet.

The fun begins next week as the major blocking we’ve been talking about starts to really show up. The European Ensembles show a similar insane block to some recent runs of the GFS…

That’s a crazy look for the middle and end of next week. The latest run of the GFS matches up with the extreme blocking next week and goes crazy with the cold…

That’s your rain to snow setup with a blast of super cold air behind it. If you take that model run verbatim… it shows highs in the upper teens and lows in the single digits for some. That may be extreme… but gives you an idea of what this late November pattern is capable of.