The underside of Thunder economics

Early in Mark Cuban’s appearance on the B.S. Report with Bill Simmons, Cuban briefly makes a point about the lockout talks that I hadn’t heard as pointedly before, or from such an involved and intelligent source. The Mavericks owner said the cost in “hours” outweighed the league’s gains in the f0rm concessions made by the players. But he wasn’t talking in metaphorical terms, hours of the day or hours of fruitless negotiating. Cuban was speaking of billable hours.

Staggering increases in recent decades of billable hours charged by attorneys have changed the face of litigation. In a lawsuit, the charges for discovery (when sides show each other the evidence they have) alone skyrockets. Elite-level litigators make millions each year just on gathering and analyzing information given to them my elite-level litigators representing the opposing party in mega-lawsuits and mega-negotiations like the NBA lockout mess.

Both sides clearly spent millions on attorneys alone, not counting economists and consultants. These are the types of guys who get paid $1,000 an hour to sit in first class or private jet, paid for by the client, on their way to meetings. So the NBA spent $2 to win $1, and the players paid $2 to lose $1, and so on. The swelling of legal bills has finally forced the market to create alternatives in the form of new firms that charge clients a set fee, splitting the difference with the client if they finish early and eating it if they don’t.

The light bulb then went on for me. When it comes to the money, especially big money, there’s always something else at play, lurking, that can be the real deciding factor. And there’s at least a chance there’s something lurking for the Thunder right now.

Rolling Stone’s artillery strike on Chesapeake, quickly rebutted by CHK, along with a (less activist) Forbes story on the Oklahoma energy giant’s short-term debt, have raised the profile of issues that bear watching for Thunder fans. In the world we live in, as depressing as it may seem, fans need to keep an eye on things like the price of natural gas even when they’re sweating out close wins against the Mavericks. (And their jerky fans that somehow always wind up at The Peake — speaking of Chesapeake. Ugh.)

Chesapeake’s Aubrey McClendon is the No. 2 guy in the ownership pyramid under Clay Bennett. Bennett is not an oil and gas guy, but if you’re in that income bracket, and you live in Oklahoma, and you sit next to McClendon on the owners’ row and have three major energy companies as headline sponsors of your Cadillac investment, it’s safe to assume your business and personal portfolio is at least somewhat at the mercy of the energy market.

It’s undeniable that what happens in the energy market could have at least a marginal effect on how far Oklahoma City could one day go into the NBA luxury tax. And, let’s face it, if there were big energy company issues in Oklahoma, there would be worse problems for the people who live here and support the Thunder than whether or not Sam Presti gets approval to pay up for both Serge Ibaka and James Harden. But there’s at least a chance that problems seemingly so far away from an NBA arena could have a direct competitive impact on the Thunder for years to come.

Now, whatever situation the energy market and Chesapeake is going to be in a year from now, it’s not going to be what Rolling Stone says. And it might not be quite as rosy as Chesapeake says it is. It’s probably going to be somewhere in between. It almost always is. That will probably be enough for there not to be much of a link, at least negatively, between the price of natural gas and the Thunder’s winning percentage. One can only hope, to be sure.

It’s another lesson when it comes to the less appetizing parts of doing business. Just because the lockout is over doesn’t mean you don’t have to sharpen your knowledge of certain kinds of legal or business or financial jargon to be able to pay attention to what could soon be important. Like a good point guard, you’ve got to keep your head on a swivel.

"The Power of Belief in Sports' presentation, delivered by Peter Blanch, made a powerful, data-driven argument that belief in a positive outcome affects the likelihood of that outcome occurring. This would seem to emphasize the value of coaching -- but a particular kind of coaching, where decisions on offensive sets, rotations, and the like take a back seat to getting your team to believe in their individual ability to accomplish specific tasks and succeed as a group."

This is why Brooks is effective despite his weaknesses: he gets his players to believe in themselves, work hard, and play together.

"SportVu Technology recently posted a study where they researched the highest field goal percentages by passer. They tracked every pass thrown by every NBA player so far this season.

Paul Pierce leads the league with his teammates shooting .568 percent off his passes. The top combination in the NBA is when Ricky Rubio sets up Nikola Pekovic who shoots .707 percent off Rubio’s passes.

Up there in the top combinations is Westbrook and Ibaka. Ibaka shoots .634 percent on passes from Westbrook. Most of those passes are Westbrook kicking out to Ibaka on pick-and-pops for midrange jumpers or Westbrook finding Ibaka on cuts for dunks and layups."

I don't see any scenario where Nazr returns next year after his contract expires in July, nor do I foresee much of a role for him in the playoffs, as Brooks has chosen to go smallball a lot more lately.

DJ Augustin also expires this summer in Charlotte. DJ was Durant's PG in college, and makes almost the same $ as Nazr. Perhaps Presti should investigate a swap to rent-a-backup PG for the rest of the year?

OKC could give DJ some run in Maynor's spot with the second unit, let Harden do his thing, and not worry about pushing Reggie too far too fast - then let DJ walk in the summer just like they're gonna let Nazr walk anyway.

I didn't watch the Mavs-Knicks game (because the last thing I want to do is deal with TV broadcasters on the subject of Jeremy Lin), but was Carmelo just being horrible or was the defense good? Same question about Lin.

The Rolling Stone article gave time for rebuttal and was fair. There is a lot more than could be said about the financial maneuvers to enrich McClendon at the expense of his shareholders and the leased lnadowners, neighbors and the environment. Nobody else I have read thinks the near term natural gas prices are going to be as rosy as Cheapeake thinks, says, needs.

@Thunder S Curious... this is only passes that end up as a fga for Serge though, right? With the amount of passes between Russ and Ibaka that dont seem to connect (& end up in to's) I'm pretty sure that if you'd combine this stat and turnover rate between passing combinations you'd end up somewhere around neutral or below league average (or at least thats what my eyes tell me when i watch games; Russ to Serge doesn't register to me as one of our more successful one two punches).

Augustin and Maynor have pretty similar assist and turnover #s. Augustin shoots and scores more often, with better competition on the floor and (he starts and plays twice as many minutes), and much worse teammates.

The only clear advantage Maynor has is in 3pt shooting %, which is valuable on the Thunder.

@Crow I haven't seen anywhere that Chesapeake was predicting a much higher natural gas price near-term. Supposedly part of them selling off some of their leased acreage was so that they wouldn't have to drill thousands of wells on it to recoup costs, which is good for the energy industry, not good for Chessy. They are without a doubt at the fore-front of overproduction of nat gas, and they probably won't learn their lesson. To me it seems like their only real hope of higher nat gas prices are multiple new nat gas power plants, vast development in nat gas as vehicle fuel, and exports, all of which are several years off at the earliest. I've never been a fan of the Chessy business model, but it doesn't really help anyone in OKC for them to go bankrupt or get bought out.

@Crow I keep waiting for the bomb to drop. We've been hearing stories like this for a couple years now and yet they keep soldiering on, building other buildings over there off 63rd like nothing's wrong.

@MrRaysian The point is, whether the Bobcats (what a dumb name) keep DJ Augustin or make a trade for Nazr or someone else, that player (and their contract) is leaving at the end of the season anyway. Meanwhile, Charlotte will be lucky to win 10 games all year.

@Old Man Game@courtsense injuries are hurting his trade value. The price the Thunder got him for suggests what most GMs think, i.e. not that interested. There are usually a half dozen of guys like him and about a half dozen teams who want that kind of defensive specialist as a pretty big minute guy. most of the rest want scorers at shooting guard.

@courtsense What's Thabo's trade value do you suppose. He's on a really cheap deal and has a defensive rep. We've sort of already learned to live without him (though we have often complained about his absence).

@jallenmorris@Old Man Game by "the bomb" I just meant natural gas prices. you may mean more. natural gas prices will go up & down. I was just suggesting they might not stay up in the next few years. longer run I am not sure. Overproduction seems like a pretty big problem for the producers right now.

@Crow@Old Man Game It's never a "last time". Our world is so dependent upon crude oil for fuel that it's not likely to change, and if it does it will not be soon and it will take FOREVER to change.

What kind of political unrest would there be if someone discovers cold fusion (see Val Kilmer in The Saint) or whatever it was that Keanu Reeves did in that movie with Morgan Freeman. Point is that if the single most valuable asset the middle east has suddenly becomes worthless, what would keep them in check from becoming violent against us? That's not good for anyone.