Environment shock

MUCH of Australia will lose its ability to farm successfully, and there will be a large loss of species from the Great Barrier Reef and the tropics if the growth of polluting energy from coal, oil and gas is not halted within seven years, a dire report from the United Nations peak scientific body warns.

The final report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change makes action from governments more urgent, but neither the Coalition nor Labor has policies for such drastic cuts to emissions.

The report warns that up to 30 per cent of the world's plants and animals risk extinction from climate change while some African countries could see their farm yields halved in the next 12 years. Written with the help of 2500 scientific experts, the disturbing report raises red flags about the threat of "abrupt and irreversible" climate change, the melting of the polar ice caps and sea level rise unless world leaders take

urgent action. "These scenes are as frightening as a science fiction movie, but they are more terrifying because they are real," said the UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, after the panel delivered its final report before UN climate negotiations begin in Bali next month.

In a major challenge to the world economies, the report finds that the world will essentially have to slash its use of polluting energy sources by up to 85 per cent in the next four decades.

Eleven of the last 12 years rank among the warmest years on record, the report finds, and concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are the highest for 650,000 years.

"Today, the time for doubt has passed," said Dr Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the panel of scientists, which recently won the Nobel Prize for its work.

"Slowing or even reversing the existing trends of global warming is the defining challenge of our ages. If there is no action before 2012, that's too late".

An Australian scientist, Dr David Karoly, who worked on the report, told the Herald: "We have already overshot the target for avoiding serious impacts from climate change. We need to peak our carbon dioxide emissions by 2015 and reduce our emissions globally by up to 85 per cent by 2050."

Critically, the report also finds the technology is available to achieve those cuts, and the cost to the world economy could be as little as 0.12 per cent of gross domestic product.

But an 85 per cent cut in emissions is far higher than any figure suggested by Australia's two major parties in the election. The Prime Minister, John Howard, has refused to set a 2050 target for Australia before the election, and Kevin Rudd has put his target at a 60 per cent reduction by 2050. Yesterday Mr Rudd said climate change would be one of his top priorities for his first 100 days in office if he is elected, saying he would go to Bali for UN negotiations and set a 2020 target within six months.

Mr Howard said while he recognised climate change was a serious challenge, "the world is not coming to an end tomorrow and like all of these things, you've got to have a common sense balanced approach". He said the most important thing was to get a new international agreement that embraced the big emitters including China, the US and India. "But you've got to have a plan that won't damage our economy".

The report suggests developed countries such as Australia will have to cut their emissions at a higher level than either leader has examined and become essentially carbon neutral by 2050.

Mr Ban called on all countries to unite at the Bali climate talks in a single effort to achieve a new global agreement to cut emissions. "I can tell you with assurance that global, sweeping, concerted action is needed now. There is no time to waste."

Mr Rudd said the report was a "call to arms" for the international community: "The panel is sending a very clear warning to the leaders of this country and of the world to act now on climate change," he said. "It's economically irresponsible for Mr Howard to go to this election with no plan for climate change."