It's a 4-team race in AFC

After a decisive Week 1 where teams more or less were who we thought they were, this year's AFC looks like a carbon copy of last year's AFC: Houston. Baltimore. New England. Denver.

Jonathan Comey

They say that the surest thing in today's NFL is that the playoff teams will reshuffle from one year to the next, and the facts have backed them up.

In 2010, only two of the NFL's final eight teams returned to that stage a year later (the Jets and Ravens). In 2011, only three carried over (the Ravens, Packers and Patriots).

But after a decisive Week 1 where teams more or less were who we thought they were, this year's AFC looks like a carbon copy of last year's AFC.

Houston. Baltimore. New England. Denver.

The rest of the AFC can fight for wild-card spots, but the four division champions feel like a fait accompli.

Ben Roethlisberger has never looked more like a one-man show in Pittsburgh. Middle-of-the-pack teams like the Bengals, Titans, Chargers and Chiefs looked pretty poor in Week 1, win or lose. The Jets are a bit of an X-factor, but their 48-28 win over Buffalo felt more like a comment on the Bills' problems than New York's strength.

Really, the only difference atop the AFC from a year ago is that all of the final four from 2011 have all come back looking stronger than ever.

The Patriots had a revelatory performance from their defense against Tennessee, raising the bar on expectations. Last year, it wasn't until the middle of December that things started to turn around on that side of the ball for New England, and the momentum seems to have carried. Oh, and the offense is pretty good too.

Denver absolutely looked the part of a Super Bowl team — watching Von Miller and the Denver D swarm poor Roethlisberger for 60 minutes was a reminder that it was John Fox's defense carrying Tim Tebow last year, not vice versa. And Manning, looking like the Greg Maddux of football (no fastball, but the biggest brain in the game) is just a marvel. He won't be quite as great as he has been in the past, but he won't have to be — this team around him rivals any he had in Indianapolis.

The Ravens might have had the most impressive win of the four in Week 1, rolling up 44 points against a good Cincinnati team while looking like the same old Ravens on defense. The question for them, as it has been for the past half-decade, is whether they'll be the same old Ravens in the playoffs — almost good enough to win it all, but not quite.

As for the Texans, they did what the Patriots did — took care of a so-so opponent with efficiency on offense and dominance on defense. With no apprarent challenge in the AFC South, the Texans will only get better on offense and have a rock-solid D — they should breeze to at least 11 wins assuming reasonable health.

Although you'd have to flip a series of coins right now to decide which of the four is the best, the Patriots and Texans do have the inside track on home-field advantage thanks to their schedules.

Sometimes a stat just up and shocks you, and this qualifies: The Arizona Cardinals have won eight of their last 10 dating back to last year.

Because they were 1-7 and more or less left for dead at midseason a year ago, this run went under the radar — but it happened. Maybe some of it was fluky (four OT wins), but if you can win eight of 10 in the NFL you have something to offer.

"This team has a lot of roots in the Pittsburgh system in all three phases of the game: offensively, defensively and special teams," Bill Belichick said in a conference call Tuesday.

He broke the Cardinals down as being strong with front-line players like Larry Fitzgerald and Darnell Dockett and great on special teams, which is true — the Cardinals do have talent. But he pushed the envelope when he mentioned that the Patriots had to prepare for both John Skelton and Kevin Kolb, saying "those guys are different but both very capable."

Different? Sure. Capable? Not really. The Cardinals' offense didn't top 400 yards once last year with Kolb or Skelton (or both), and never scored more than 28 points — two things that you probably need when you want to beat the Patriots in Foxboro.

But the Cardinals will run everything they can at the Patriots, regardless.

"They're a hard team to prepare for scheme-wise, they do a lot of different things," Belichick said. "I don't know if I've seen as many personnel groups and formations from a team as what these guys have shown. They really put every combination together, really that's conceivable. It's going to be a tough week."

A tough week of preparation, perhaps. But on Sunday? Probably not so tough.

If Belichick had any urge to call out NFL draft experts like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay, who (politely) questioned his pick of safety Tavon Wilson in the second round, he kept it to himself. But he was certainly validated by Wilson's play Sunday. The peerless football analysis site Pro Football Focus, which tracks every player on every play, ranked Wilson No. 9 for Week 1 out of 68 safeties that saw regular action — impressive for a rookie in his first game. ...

On a per-game basis, the Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald is one of the best receivers in playoff history. In six postseason games, he's averaged 7 catches, 117 yards and 1.5 TDs a game. ... Arizona's offensive line is a complete mess, with a converted guard at left tackle and a rookie fourth-round pick at right tackle. Pass rusher Chandler Jones could be bidding for a second straight rookie of the week nomination Sunday. ...

It's worth noting that Steven Ridley's 40 snaps were the most for a running back since BenJarvus Green-Ellis' 61 back in Week 5 of 2011. Green-Ellis only had 40+ snaps in a game three times during his two seasons as the Patriots' main running back.

Former Patriot center Dan Koppen signed with Denver on Monday, but don't pencil him in the Broncos' lineup just yet; J.D. Walton has made 33 straight starts at center, and the line looked very strong against Pittsburgh Sunday night.

Jonathan Comey is sports and features editor for The Standard-Times. Email him: jcomey@s-t.com