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At some point in the next year, the stalemate between Tom Mulcair and Justin Trudeau will likely be broken.

One of these two men will emerge as the real alternative to the Conservatives in 2015.

Each would argue the contrary, but right now neither has established himself as that alternative.

Right now, Mulcair and his New Democrats have the caucus numbers and the trappings and levers of power available to the official Opposition.

Trudeau, on the other hand, if non-election year polls are to be believed, stands ahead of Mulcair in support and public profile. The polling is significant in that Trudeau has shown consistent strength.

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It will be tempting to look at the results of next Monday’s byelection in Trinity-Spadina as the next step in unravelling this puzzle of the progressive vote in this country.

The riding is no doubt a fascination for political watchers in this country, given its iconic status, its history and its demographics. It gets national attention not only because it sits in the middle of the country’s media capital.

It is iconic because it is the former riding of NDP royalty, Olivia Chow, it is historic because of past bitter Liberal-NDP battles that once made it a classic swing riding and demographically key because of its urban diversity, a target constituency of both Liberals and New Democrats.

Its importance is underlined by the number of visits here made by Trudeau, on behalf of his candidate, Adam Vaughan, and Mulcair, on behalf of his candidate, Joe Cressy.

But before the analysis hits full stride next week, this race must carry some asterisks.

This is a riding in which the former MP is in the middle of a mayoralty race, the former councillor is running to be a federal MP, and a provincial campaign has been in the rear view mirror for a mere two weeks.

Voters are being asked to cast a ballot on what is essentially a long weekend.

There is no message to be delivered to a government in Trinity-Spadina, something that can sometimes drive turnout, because this riding has long been a no-go zone for federal Conservatives, as evidenced by their near-invisible candidate Benjamin Sharma.

Green party candidate Camille Labchuk is likely to poll more than the 4.4 per cent the party won in 2011 (when Chow grabbed more than half the vote) and it isn’t clear whether she would siphon more votes from Cressy or Vaughan.

Cressy can campaign to the left of where New Democrats will be campaigning next year and Vaughan can focus on affordable housing in a byelection, but would have to juggle much more if this was a federal campaign.

The biggest difference though is that no voter in Trinity-Spadina is looking at either Cressy or Vaughan as a member of a government, and Cressy is in fact campaigning to be part of a team to keep Harper accountable.

Next year, Mulcair will not be campaigning to keep his job as Opposition leader and Trudeau will be facing much more critical scrutiny as a potential prime minister. And he will have to carry some policy with him.

There is no question that the 29-year-old Cressy faces pressure to keep this riding for Chow and he regularly drops her name into debates to remind voters he is trying to build on the legacy of the highly popular former MP.

But Trudeau has likely already won something of a victory in Trinity-Spadina simply by luring Vaughan, and his name recognition, into the race.

It is testament to leadership if so-called “star” candidates are eager to join the team and Vaughan fits that bill. The Liberals are also faster off the mark nominating candidates for next year’s election than are the New Democrats.

So far, the urban battle between the two progressive parties has not led to a clear winner.

In the Montreal riding, the NDP held its support and in the downtown Toronto race, it won more votes than ever before.

Monday could be the first riding to actually change hands, and if Trudeau pulls that off, he will have bragging rights, no asterisks included.

But the victor will barely have time to find his seat in the Commons before campaigning begins for the 2015 vote. The focus will then turn to suburbia, where the election will be won and lost, not the inner city.

And the most interesting number in Trinity-Spadina Monday might very well be the voter turnout.

Tim Harper is a national affairs writer. His column appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday. tharper@thestar.ca Twitter:@nutgraf1

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