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Romney's ceiling actually a floor?

Ben makes a smart catch on the latest Gallup poll, which shows Mitt Romney leading the field in favorability despite his tepid intensity numbers.

There has been a lot of talk about Romney's static poll numbers - generally in the mid-20s nationally and consistently around 20 in Iowa (with a high of about 40 percent In New Hampshire) - being a ceiling for him.

But it's also possible, as Gallup would suggest and as pollsters like the Tarrance Group's Ed Goeas noted to Lawrence O'Donnell yesterday, that the mid-20s number is actually a floor for Romney, who will attract more support when it comes time to vote.

Readers' Comments (10)

In past cycles it's been far more difficult to forecast political poll trends, but over the past few months it's become easier and easier to read the tea leaves.

The facts:

Romney is the only candidate with a solid 25% base of unwavering support GOP electorate (by and large) have one unifying objective: defeat Obama Bachman was 4% when she entered, peaked at 13%, and is back at 4% Santorum peaked at 5% and is back at 2% Perry's numbers have been the most volatile, with about 10% of the electorate who are sticking with him despite his many challenges Cain's supporters crossed over from Perry but are currently transitioning to Gingrich as his past is catching up with him Gingrich is now the repository of the post-Bachman, post-Perry, and post-Cain supporters. They are not committed to Gingrich, and only coming to him now reluctantly

Only Ron Paul has a similarly committed base to that of Romney, but it's only 8%.

The fascinating dynamic here is that because Obama is so vulnerable, all of the weaker GOP candidates can truly fanta about running against Obama and will likely hold on until the very bitter end. This strongly favors the candidate with the largest committed base, who will become an unstoppable force because as candidates drop out they will likely endorse front-runner who will be best positioned to reward them for doing so.

Wrong! Romney's poll numbers are SLIDING! After peaking at nearly 30% a couple of months ago, Romney's numbers fell to 15% in a recent CBS poll and no RECENT poll shows him above 20%.

Romney has a REAL BASE of about 10-15% Country Club, moderate Republicans, and about 5-10% SOFT SUPPORT from conservatives holding their nose and ignoring the lack of core values problem with Romney, with the HOPE that he is the most electable candidate. This "hope" is beginning to thin, as Gingrich is beginning to emerge as someone who can take Obama on in a debate AND has the solid conservative core values that Romney lacks.

Romney is currently dismissing Gingrich because Gingrich doesn't have the organization and funds YET, but we all know how ignoring that at this early stage turned out for Romney in 2008, and how McCain trounced Romney despite having far less money and organizational prowess.

The plain fact is that Romney has been campaigning for president for 6 YEARS, but still can break away from his rivals. This is a HUGE red flag when it comes to endorsements and further fund raising, as the would-be-donor would ask Mitt straight out: Why haven't you been able to move the polls much beyond 25% given all the money you have spent thus far over a SIX YEAR period?

Maybe it's a wall. Could be a door. A window? It's a conundrum. It also could be one of those things you find way in the back of your junk drawer in the kitchen. You don't know what it is, why you have it, or what it may be good for, but you put it back in there again just in case.

Metteyya: "Wrong! Romney's poll numbers are SLIDING!"...........................If all the billions and billions of polls taken recently prove anything, they prove that polls are not reliable indicators of anything except the income of the pollsters.

Okpulot, I'm Team Perry 110%. The underlying premise of this latest polluted political trashcan, is that Romney's stubbornly persistent 25% is going to go upwards, with active voters resigned to two (maybe 3) choices, after the media slams him into the nomination. Yes, I look for Ron Paul to run independent regardless of who gets GOP nomination. Remember, it is the media that determines who wins, not (gasp) the voters themselves. Problem is, if their silly narrative becomes true, grassroots are not going to be excited enough to get out the vote for candidate Romney, Obama-lite, in large enough numbers to offset the Democratic machine. I have heard it said that there will be tremendous efforts to push for Senate and more House seats in the GOP. One thing that is not getting a lot of attention is the very strong anti-Romney campaigns out there. Google anti-Romney, not-Romney, anybody BUT Romney, an infinite number exists in the blogosphere with real campaigns against a GOP nominee Mitt Romney. You don't see much outward resistance, however, to a candidate Perry or a candidate Gingrich, even with their own set of problems respectively, just lower poll numbers. The ABR number is real and it is strong. redstate.com is full of Perry supporters. Another number that is not getting much attention is the undecideds in this race. Bloomberg puts out their trash that it is Romney's to lose in NH when there is a whopping 80% still on the fence. Now, that is telling. Romney is one of their own, owns property, contributes to the tax base and yet they still cannot decide on him? Huh. Huge number of undecideds in Iowa too. Not sure about Florida. Perry stays on message and things will turn around. Historically, he pulls strong in the end of campaigns. That's what Dems and camp Romney fear~

sunshinek67 is observant, "Another number that is not getting much attention is the undecideds in this race"

This is very critical. A significant majority of voters on the conservative side add a footnote, "I might change my mind."

For now, polls only reflect core supporters. Those are people who have favorite candidates long before this election cycle began. More important is what you note, a sizable majority remain undecided although they express a "preference" for certain candidates. This conservative side primary remains wide open, there is no clear winner, but there are some clear losers.

Evidence of this core support is Mitt Romney's consistent poll results, around 25% which is exactly the same core support percentage back in 2008 year. On the average, Romney's poll numbers have not budged an inch, up or down. His poll results are simply his core supporters. However, Romney's supporters add that footnote, "I might change my mind."

Bachmann, Santorum and Huntsman have low core support numbers, those three are certainly out of this race. Herman Cain was a flash in the pan and he is losing support for clear reason. Cain is out of this race. Three remain, Romney, Gingrich and Perry.

Romney is stuck at 25% like 2008 year. This number will not change much. Conservatives will only vote for Romney given no other choice but Obama. Romney is not well liked by conservatives, this is a harsh truth; he is a left liberal RINO.

Gingrich seems to be picking up support from those who have abandoned Cain. Gingrich is less liked than Romney. Conservatives see Gingrich as a Washington insider and Gingrich is dragging along a lot of distasteful baggage.

Rick Perry is squeaky clean. Rick is a true conservative and Rick has no scandal in his background. Conservatives like Rick but there is a lingering legacy of George Bush. I understand this concern. Nonetheless, Rick Perry is nothing like left liberal RINO George Bush, there is no comparison.

With a truthful and objective look at conservative presidential candidates, there is only one who is a true conservative and who is squeaky clean. This is Rick Perry.

Rick will continue to slowly earn support and will win the GOP primary. Like you astutely write, a majority of conservative voters remain undecided. My belief is Rick Perry will be the final pick and this will happen in the next few months. Rick is the most common sense choice for conservatives and common sense will guide those great numbers of undecided conservative voters.

sunshinek67 adds, "Historically, he (Perry) pulls strong in the end of campaigns"

Exactly right. Rick's campaign approach is slow and cautious. Rick does not take risks, he stays on message and delivers his same message, over and over: "I am a true conservative, I am trustworthy and I am a good common sense family values man."

Yours is a very good observation on this "undecided" conservative voters issue.