Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Michigan Concealed Carry

The Detroit Free Press has published a two-part article about how well the Concealed Carry Permit laws are working out for Michigan.

Ten years after Michigan made it much easier for its citizens to get a license to carry a concealed gun, predictions of widespread lawless behavior and bloodshed have failed to materialize.

Today, nearly 276,000 -- or about four out of every 100 eligible adult Michiganders -- are licensed.

But violent crimes have been rare among carrying a concealed weapon license holders. Only 2% of license holders have been sanctioned for any kind of misbehavior, State Police records show.

I have two problems with that.

First, I don't believe the "Police records" that show this statistic are reliable or comprehensive. There are often problems in communicating between cities and counties, people who commit crimes in one district, continue to enjoy gun rights in another. So, the percentage is much higher.

Second, who decided that 2% is low? Even if it were an accurate number, which I've already shown is unlikely, it's HIGH. Did you do the math? 2% of 276,000 is 5,520. To me that's not acceptable.

Consider another thing. The 5,520 are concealed carry permit holders whom we KNOW have committed crimes. Imagine how many have not been caught. It's hard to guess, but what would you think, another 2% only? I'd say the percentage of hidden criminals among the 276,000 CCW guys is much higher than that. Let's use a universally accepted standard, the Famous 10%. That would give us another 27,000 dangerous people with carry permits.

Needless to say, I disagree strongly with the article's attempt to spin the Michigan situation. But, did we really even have to go through all that. Michigan is the proud home of Detroit. 'Nuff said.

69 comments:

Indeed. The author makes one of the elementary statistics mistakes by comparing a self-selected group to the entire population.

Remmember, CCW holders are *supposed* to be model citizens. The fact that any of them are committing crimes is astounding.

Let's take an example not involving guns. Take the child sexual abuse scandal in the Catholic Church. If we compare Catholic priests to the general populace--they don't commit sexual crimes any more--and far less--than the general public. The problem, of course, is that Catholic priests aren't the general public. They are a self-selected group who by virtue of screening, training and oversight are supposed to be virtually immune to committing any crime.

Put another way--this is like comparing heights between men in the general populace and the NBA.

Well, we don't got no ConcealedCarry'Cuz-U-Gotagrievance'gainsttheworld law up here in Newyorkistan but, man, if we did!

I was working all last weekend as a volunteer at a local festival. After I had finished working on friday I stopped by one of the local watering holes for a little conversation and a beer. When I left the building (the lounge is in a hotel) I saw four rather inebriated young people about 100' or so to my left as I turned right and was walking to my car. One of them said, "Hey, mister."' I ignored him. He yelled again, "Hey, yeah, you in the vest, turn around.". I continued walking. Then I heard a slap and a woman's voice saying, "Shut the fuck up, you idiot.". I got in my truck and left.

Geez, if I'da had a gun I coulda just shot all four of them drunkoperps and been a heeeeeeero. I mean I was scared shitless!!!

What a crock of shit. If you had gone to the Michigan State Police website you would have noticed that very few sanctions were for violent crimes, most were for bullshit things like traffic tickets, hell one was because a hunter was not wearing a hunter orange vest. Your entitled to your own opinion not your own bullshit facts. Your little snarky remark about Detriot was definitly uncalled for and you owe the great people of Detroit an apology.People like Jadegold and democommie are nothing more than angry anti 2nd amend extremists who are pissed off because they have lost the gun control battle and have only insults and made up facts left.

sadly, Cowman is reduced to having to mouth old falsehoods and misconceptions.

The MSP sanctions weren't for traffic or parking violations. Instead, they were for crimes spanning the range from murder to shoplifting. The reports are online and show felonies, misdemeanors and carrying under the influence.

Additionally, it's important to note 16% of the counties in MI don't report any data whatsoever. Worse, these conties that don't report comprise about 36% of MI's population.

It's telling that Cowman feels the need to lie after claiming he's won.

Thats a good one coming from someone who claims that they are winning the gun control fight.Did you even go to the Michigan State Police website? I think not because what you just posted is a complete fucking LIE which is par for the course for you.C'mon, admit it, you are just pissed off that your wet dream of a gun ban is never going to happen

Cow: The facts are what they are. If you go to the MSP site they list out all the infractions. Plus they list which counties did not report any data. Of note, Wayne County--MI's largest in terms of population--did not report any data.

And the vast majority of the offenses were non violent misdemeanors and alot of them were dismissed or found not guilty. So are we to believe that the 16 counties that did not report are more violent than those that did?You make winning so easy that it really is pathetic.Once again , your wet dream of a total gun ban is just that, a wet dream that will never become a reality

Jade just where did I say that 2% figure? Putting words in my mouth now eh?Fact is that all the crying and pearl clutching by you antis about conceal carrying, ie, blood will flow in the streets, shootouts over parking spaces, oh and my all time favorite, it will be like the wild, wild west turned out to be bullshit and you are just pissed off about it. I've had a CHL since NV has been a shall issue state and I know without a doubt that the vast majority of CHL holders are very law abiding citizens, not all but the vast majority are.

More crap from your mouth, violent crime is down to lows not seen in 40 years, thats from the FBI stats.The only lies are from the antis who just can't come to grips with their cherished dreams of a total gun ban going down the toilet, oh, wait a minute, whats that flushing sound we hear? Thats your wet dream going to the sewer where it belongs.Winning my ass, the only place your winning is in your warped mind, If your winning so much how come we now have 49 states that have some sort of conceal carry law now and Illinois will soon join the rest of the U.S.You just keep believing that your winning because it really makes your side look like the loons that you are

Once again jade, crimes commited by CRIMINALS, not law abiding citizens. Why do you persist in these inuendos that the crime rate is tied to law abiding citizens who hold CHL's? I know why, because thats all your side has left, it really is sad and pathetic. If conceal carry is so bad, why hasn't one state, repeat, one state revoked it yet?

Well dog, there a lot of what ifs in any situation. What ifs like suppose only the perps had guns and shot everybody including the kids so instead of what if-ing just go with the facts, i.e.,two bad guys walked into a barbershop, pulled a gun, fired it into the floor and response a legally armed citizen took action. Result: one bad guy who won't be threatening law abiding citizens again and perhaps a gang banger who has been scared straight.

I thought the barber shop shooting was a good clean DGU. I said as much on TTAG.

Cowman, JadeGold's first comment was a KO to your argument. "The fact that any of them are committing crimes is astounding." and I would add, unacceptable.

Also mentioned was the fact that the counties in Michigan are not all reporting, which supports my original idea that the 2% figure is too low. I'll grant you that some of those are minor offenses, but not as many as you say, which leaves us with TOO MANY.

There is the other alternative that NO one would be dead, and no one would be at risk of being dead, if the individuals in the barbershop article had given these guys some money. It wouldn't have even had to be all their money.

The criminals would be more likely to leave, and sooner, than this resistance. The amount of money involved in thefts like this is negligable.

Not every situation is a good one or a necessary one for armed resistance. One picks and chooses, based on the situation. My gun training was that this was a BAD situation for this armed resistance, when there was a better, non-violent alternative that had a good chance of success. RESPONSIBLE gun use for defense means you know not only where the bullets are going to go that you intend, in firing, but where those bullets which might miss will go, and the possibility / probability that they could hit an innocent bystander, unless you are a trained sniper doing the kind of shooting specific to what snipers do. This wasn't one of those sniper situations.

The ONLY thing about this shooting with which I agree was that if you decide shooting someone really is absolutely necessary, you do shoot to kill them, but only the amount of shooting necessary to do that.

The exact quote from my combat pistol class required for my permit, a class I took in conjunction with a criminal restraining order against someone who was a threat, was that if you have to fire your entire magazine into someone to accomplish that, or to try to accomplish that, you usually have a bad situation for making the decision to fire your weapon. I found it significant that one of two men in the barbershop who were armed chose NOT to use his weapon; clearly he didn't think this was a good occasion to use his weapon, which indicates this was NOT a situation where use of a gun was necessary or desirable.

Sorry Mike, but this was a questionable use, at best, for gun defense.

I would, respectfully, disgree with Laci's portrayal of Detroit as a ghost town: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfXOVODI6TM, and point out that he probably doesn't remember too much of the city from whe he was 9 months old. But I don't know - maybe he's been there in the interim since then for his comment. I've seen western ghost towns, where no one lives anymore; and that isn't Detroit. http://www.google.com/search?q=images,+ghost+towns&hl=en&biw=1024&bih=543&prmd=ivns&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=Ay05Tq7OAuTlsQKz9uQh&ved=0CCYQsAQ

The fact that there were multiple people in this barbershop argues that this was not a ghost town part of admittedly badly economically affected Detroit.

Anonymous makes a snark that 'urban' is code for black, with his usual intellectual and personal dishonesty. 'Urban' is code for black when it is used as 'poor urban thugs' to describe a specific geographic area that is statistically >98% black, not all urban areas. What is not identified in this shooting cited was the races of the individuals involved, or the racial demographic of the area where it occurred; that would shed a far more useful insight into the role of race in the shooting in the article.

So doggie you think that it's ok to let gang bangers rule the streets? Well I suppose you mean some other peoples streets and not your own. Once the BGs pulled and fired a gun peoples lives were in danger. The next shot could have been a lethal one at one of the kids. It was righteous shoot and if more people took this kind of action Detroit might still be a living city instead of ghost town.

My wife and I both have been involved in anti-Piracy activities. We see the same domestic logic that you employ at work on the high seas. Nobody wants an armed merchantman in their ports because don't you know a Maesrk merchant armed with 76 oto Molera and an adequate supply small arms could possible go rogue and use them to loot the Port of Naples. They say that if crews resist that it will only anger the pirates but then the angry pirates become dead pirates

They say that if merchants arm the pirates will just get bigger guns except today's average merchant displaces more tonnage than an Iowa class battleship and the pirates attack with zodiacs towed to sea by 1000 ton fishing boats. The pirates aren't even in the race. At the last conference the recommendation was that the crew should have a citadel where they can "hold out" for up to 72 hours until some Naval vessel (the cops) arrive to save the day. You know when seconds count the Navy is days away. Just hope the Russian or RoK navy shows up instead of us.

The international community has chosen your way -- pay them off and look what happened. Anarchy and lawlessness on the high seas just as your approach to crime leads to the kind of urban anarchy that lays wastes to our urban core.

I know your type. Had you been in the barbershop you would have wet your pants. You are willing to let others protect you so you can maintain your self-righteous persona.

"There is the other alternative that NO one would be dead, and no one would be at risk of being dead, if the individuals in the barbershop article had given these guys some money. It wouldn't have even had to be all their money."

Well if this is your attitude, then I request that you send me $100 a month and in return I promise not to shoot you. As you can see, this avoids all violence and it is most likely not all of your money.

Actually, JVA, I fully agree with arming those who sail the seas, if they wish to be armed, and if that is the case with crew members, then more power to them, and I hope their employer pays for them to be trained and armed.

Beyond that, I think this country should do much more than we currently do to address piracy. I'd love to see us reinstate letters of marque and reprisal in fact, with a multinational bounty on anyone who privately wants to hunt down pirates, as a deterrent, or alternatively offering them a percentage, say 5%, of the value of recovered vessels in pirate hands.

I'll even make you an offer here, which I trust my 'boss', the blog owner Mike B will back up. If you'd like to write a post here on weapons on the high seas, and piracy, I'll post it here, giving you credits as a contributing author.

As to my coolness or courage in crises, you couldn't be more wrong. In fact, I'm quite well aware how fear can interfere with objectivity, and be as likely to cause an over reaction as an under reaction to a situation.

"I'll even make you an offer here, which I trust my 'boss', the blog owner Mike B will back up. If you'd like to write a post here on weapons on the high seas, and piracy, I'll post it here, giving you credits as a contributing author."

Why would anyone want to do that? The TTAG offers the same thing but with much more readership, commenting sans moderation, and in my opinion more constructive discussion.

MikeB you have yet to show stats that Michigan CHL holders are less law abiding than the Michigan State Police have shown. Fact is your wet dream of total gun control is going down the toilet and you just have a hard time coming to grips with that fact. Who gives a rats ass about what an ex-pat living in Italy thinks about American gun laws. I know from 35 years of being in the First Responder line of work that the vast majority of CHL holders her in Las Vegas are level headed law abiding citizens and I seriously doubt that Michigan CHL holders are any different, The vast majority of gun crimes, hell, all crime, is committed by, wait for it, CRIMINALS, who are 99.9% of the time barred from owning or being in possession of firearms, so far all I've ever seen from you and your ilk is prue speculation and bullshit

Care to back up that 99.9% of gun crimes statistic with something factual?

I consider most accidental shootings for example to be criminally negligent, like the recent post about the 101 year old grandma who was shot while her two grandsons staged the shootout at the OK corral over a money disgareement. Show me that one or both of those grandsons illegally owned the firearms involved.

May I point out to you that the shooting of Gabby Giffords was with a legally purchased and owned gun, although clearly schizophrenic Jared Loughner SHOULD have been barred from it.

I have had a grand total of about 90 seconds under fire and it was indirect fire at that. That gives me 90 seconds more combat experience than you.

There were many chances to deal with Lochner before he purchased his gun but the Community College took no action and the Sheriff Dupnik covered up for him. (It helps when the Sheriff is a family friend) But even that wouldn't have stopped him from acquiring a handgun. If he couldn't do it legally, the stoner would have gotten one from his dealer.

If you accept that armed civilians on the high seas stops criminals why do wish to restrict citizens from defending themselves in their homes and streets?

Like Jerryofva I have been under hostile fire, In 1969 I did a combat tour in the Central Highlands of Vietnam, how much hostile fire have you been under although this has nothing to do with the topic. Just curious

"MikeB you have yet to show stats that Michigan CHL holders are less law abiding than the Michigan State Police have shown. "

Actually the MSP have done the heavy lifting. Their own reports note that about 35% of MI's population was unaccounted for.

"My wife and I both have been involved in anti-Piracy activities. We see the same domestic logic that you employ at work on the high seas. Nobody wants an armed merchantman in their ports because don't you know a Maesrk merchant armed with 76 oto Molera and an adequate supply small arms could possible go rogue and use them to loot the Port of Naples. They say that if crews resist that it will only anger the pirates but then the angry pirates become dead pirates "

Actually, that's not the argument at all. Having quite a bit more experience than you--or your wife--in this area, the reason is two-fold. First, most marine underwriters wouldn't insure a shipping company arming its ships. Or they would at exorbitant rates.

Second, most piracy issues are the result of a shipping company cutting corners and could be avoided altogether.

There are other minor factors as well but those are the biggies. It isn't because of the reason you made up.

I stand by my statements and the MSP shows that only appox 2% of CHL holders have negative contact with law enforcement. Are we to believe that the 16 counties that didn't report are more lawless that the others? If you believe that than I truly believe your delusional

I have a daughter who is a police officer in LV and she says that CHL holders are some of the most law abiding, polite people she has ever met. What is your experience with CHL holders except what you have read from the idiots at the VPC and the Brady Bunch?

And oh BTW, you will find that most street cops support CCW laws, the ones that most oppose it are the cop-o-crats, you know, the political cops. Street cops know that 99.9% of the problems come from CRIMINALS, not law abiding citizens holding CHL's

Really more experience Jade? Have you ridden the "Big Grey Boat" or have you got experience with Maritime Patrol Community? Do you know what the Maritime Patrol Community is? Get a clue the conference we attend aren’t held in the public library and there is a heavy presence of attendees wearing blue, khaki or white. The insurance crowd are the ones who cite reasons 2 and 3 for not arming vessels. They are captive of the same anti-self defense attitudes express by the anti-Second Amendment zealots

I call bullshit, the only ones complaining so far are the cop-o-cratsl. And so far I've only heard one or 2 complaining. Most street cops know that law abiding CHL holders aren't the problem, it's the CRIMINALS. How do I know this? My daughter is a LVMPD officer.I suspect that after awhile it will become a non-issue just like every other state that has CCW law.Who can forget the dire perdictions of "blood will flow in the streets" "shootouts over parking spaces" when FL. enacted their CCW law which turned out to be pure bullshit.

jerryofva: Yes, a whole lot more experience. And I mean a whole lot more.

Accusing marine underwriters of being "antis" is really a silly argument. They're "pro" one thing: money. And anti-losing money. So, they could care less what positions you hold so long as they don't wind up losing money.

You really haven't clue one as to what you're talking about. The merchant fleet is all about making--not losing--money. Anything that drives their costs up is going to be nixed.

Insurance aside, piracy is really a localized issue that can largely be avoided. Had you any background on this issue, you'd know there exist a number of localized areas around the world. And you'd also realize this isn't an issue that just popped up in the last couple years--it's been around for the last 4-5 decades.

and re our 2003 MN Concealed Carry?http://www.thehighroad.org/archive/index.php/t-14329.html"But with at least one Republican member -- Sen. Mike McGinn of Eagan, a former St. Paul police commander -- voicing opposition to the Pariseau bill, it appeared unlikely to pass the panel."

and

"More than two hours of testimony Monday was dominated by criticism from school, police, business, medical, church and local government groups."

So you can call bullshit all you like, but the only BS artist here Cow man is YOU. Time to decide which end you want to talk out of; right now, it seems to be the one with the tail swishing away the flies.

Once again, Political cops not street cops.Before I retired, I interacted with Police regularly, ie, street cops and the vast majority of them supported the right of the citizens to CCW. Why is MN any different?So yes I call bullshit and stand by my statement

It exists now, not because of popularity, but because of a conservative agenda that forced it through.

You still can only offer your own unsubstantiated anecdotes.

The sources I cited did not only involve upper level law enforcement - ALL of whom came up through the ranks from street cops, and therefore have street cop cred. The testimony included plenty of street level cops as well, and expressed the viwes of rank and file police organizations. Also various levels, state and local/municipal prosecuting attorneys.

Would you like a towel, cowman, to wipe off your own manure? You appear to be covered in it.

Put up something better than your own limited, unverifiable, biased conversations, or back down.

The same thing goes with the upper mgnt at LVMPD, at one time they were street cops but now their mgmt and most now do not support CCW laws but the street cops do and I suspect that the same is true in MN. And the law would not have been enacted if the citizens didn't want it so your bullshit of conservatives agenda is just that, bullshit. Once again, I stand by my statement, why haven't you answered my ? about repeal yet. Or is this another conservative conspiracy?

You were in the military, not the police. What do you know about patrolling in a large East Coast city? Or for that matter pretty much anywhere in the USA where an armed confrontation is highly likely due to the amount of firearms in circulation?

Are you going to tell me that you think everyone carrying is a "good guy"? You for real?

With all the legal concealed carry folk out there, doesn't make it easier for the illegal carriers to carry?

I can't believe that someone who claims combat experience would condone making a situation worse for someone to have to judge who is safe and who is unsafe.

The proper designation is AN-BQQ5 which was found on the 637 and 688 classes. I assume you mean the AN-BQQ6 found on Trident boats. You are assuming that i served on an SSN. By the way you could have found this on google as did I but I was just refreshing my memory because i haven't done undersea warfare since 1996

I don't much give a shit if you think I misrepresented my military creds. I was there, I know what I endured during my tour and you can go fuck yourself.Laci, We called it DongHa but I spent most of my tour detached to the Marines at Con Thien and I really don't give a flying fuck if you believe me or not, I spent 35 years as a Firefighter/Paramedic so I know a little bit about what street cops think and my daughter is a cop, I never said all carriers are good people. Reading is fundemental

BTW Laci, it is Dong Ha, were you there? I think not.Hell, were you even in Vietnam? How much combat time do you have?Dog, were you there? How much combat tours do you have? To practically accuse someone of lying about theier military service is vile and you fucking owe me an apology which I suspect I will never see.

I will give you this and this onlyWe deployed to Chu Lai in 1969 but myself and 5 others were TDY to MCB-5 at Dong Ha and then detached to Con Thien to fortify the Marine base. You can believe me or not, don't really fucking care.

I'm not accusing anyone of anything; I'm just asking a straight up question, reasonable for the information you've offered.

I would expect you to appreciate it when someone makes an effort to fact check, pointing out the poseurs from those who really have served and deserve the respect for it - doubly so for those who have seen combat.

Laci is a Brit, so therefore has not served in the U.S. military; but he is a UK combat vet, if you happen to care.

Btw, cowpie, I am still waiting for an answer to my question. I thought it was a very good question to ask.

I notice that you still can't produce anything other than anecdotal support for your contentions about law enforcement and concealed carry, while I produced documentation of entire police organizations, including rank and file beat / street cops, coming out against it.

Cowabunga, I alluded to, as you put it, something that occurred recently on another blog entirely, where both Laci and I comment.

Someone using the blognomen Sepp misrepresented himself as a combat vet, was busted for it - in part by Laci, btw - and he admitted after being put on the spot that he lied. My contribution was to research legislative efforts to make doing so a crime.

I don't find it insulting to anyone to ask an honest question about their service. I accuse you of nothing; exposing people like Sepp for trying to claim respect for service that they didn't deserve benefits everyone.

Like I said, I'm going by what my experience is with the street cops I interacted with during my 35 yrs in the fire service and my daughters experience.I do owe you an apology, I thought we were talking about WI. My bad.As far as MN. I would expect the same to be true as Las Vegas PD.

Cowman said, "I stand by my statements and the MSP shows that only appox 2% of CHL holders have negative contact with law enforcement. Are we to believe that the 16 counties that didn't report are more lawless that the others?"

I think you've got something wrong there. Your 2% was derived by the reported incidents divided by the total. If more counties reported their problems that wouldn't change the total number but it sure would change the 2% result.