Interesting stat on channel 7 news tonight: latest cyclone in the Coral Sea during a cyclone season to form was 7th March. Well looks like a new record will be broken this year, along with some high temperatures too. I haven't heard the temp stats for this summer yet but will be interesting.

That shower yesterday brought a nice 27mm at Prossy mill and only 13mm at Mt Julian. Gee we've gotta get something decent soon showerly! There're talking about another El Niño now and the SOI doesn't look good at all Hope everyone has other hobbys to do...

Doesn't look good Rainrunner, just checked the latest SST's, definitely warm water building up against the south American coast, el nino is on the cards. We have been lucky in Mackay, atleast we have had rain, but since Ive been here since 92 I don't recall going through a wet season without a cyclone developing in the coral sea. This maybe our last season here in Mackay, we are planning to move down south, goin to miss the rain, but ;looking forward to seeing seasonal weather again. 5 to 6 months of tropical heat each year is starting to wear a bit thin.

nothing even remotely decent showing up on any of the models atm,,, live in hope that we get something but as you say r.r not looking good. Heat and humidity in prossy and out at the beach today was oppressive and still is as I type this... That shower on Sat lasted for a bout 2.5 hours and that was it.. Shame because the rain hovered off the coast all day and finally receded to the south east.

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Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It's not.Dr. Seuss

well that was a waste, stinkin hot all day and then 1 min of dribble rain and some faint rumbles and all gone..how long can this go on.last post 10 days ago, slowest ever i've seen on here for a while.

That is quite the jump between March and April, from neutral to being on the El Niño threshold.

The only glimmer of hope is the bolded sentence.

Originally Posted By: BoM

Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA)POAMA, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates a nine-month forecast each fortnight. The most recent model run (generated 12 March) indicates NINO3.4 will warm during the outlook period and shows an increased chance of exceeding El Niño thresholds in late autumn to early winter. However, this forecast straddles the autumn predictability barrier, meaning forecast skill beyond autumn is low.The forecast values, shown below in bold, are for POAMA's ensemble mean.

Sarich's Alert(south of Mirani?) showing 135mm since 9am.I'm currently in Northern Beaches area. Clouds coming in from the coast look like proper wet season stuff. Bummer Mackay's radar is down at the moment🙁

Yeah it is nooty - i'd love to be in Mackay/Sarina atm seeing the radar. Building up very nicely there... Here in the Whitsundays:

Whit a/p 62mmHI a/p 97mmProssy mill 68mmMt Julian 90mm

Wishing I was there too Rainrunner. I'm out in Moranbah (zero action out here) until the weekend and then I'll sneak into town to make sure the old house is okay. Bit excited about this cyclone that's brewing (hopefully) in the Coral Sea. My hope is that it gives Townsville area a good drink without any of the destruction. Asking a lot, I know. I'm just a crazy old weather watcher who hasn't had much to watch of late lol!

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There's no such thing as bad weather, only unsuitable clothing. ~Alfred Wainwright

Initial Flood Watch for coastal catchments between Cooktown to Mackay extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.Issued at 2:35 pm EST on Friday 24 March 2017 Issue Number: 2 Re-issued: CorrectedRiver level rises above the minor flood level are likely across the Flood Watch area from late Sunday. Major flooding is possible. Heavy rainfall with daily totals up to 200 mm with locally heavier falls are expected across the Flood Watch area from late Sunday and into Monday.This rainfall is associated with a tropical low over the Coral Sea which is expected to strengthen into a tropical cyclone and track southwest towards the Queensland North Tropical Coast.Heavy rainfall may also lead to localised flash flooding.Catchments at risk within the Flood Watch area include the Daintree, Mossman, Barron, Russell, Mulgrave, Johnstone, Tully, Murray, Herbert, Ross, Bohle, Black, Haughton, Burdekin, Don, Proserpine, Pioneer, Mitchell, Gilbert, Norman and Upper Flinders Rivers and Bluewater Creek.

looking at a few of the local community pages and finding it sad that a lot of people are bagging out those that are getting prepared and are taking this threat seriously. There are going to be tears for some after this event, no doubt about it and throwing caution to the wind and ignoring experts seems to be a matter of course for a lot of people in this area. Maybe it has to do with the transient nature of the Whitsundays location.

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Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It's not.Dr. Seuss

I'm sticking to my guns and saying a Whitsundays-Bloomsbury landfall. Even when the ridge grabs the big girl I think she will have enough steam to influence a more poleward movement and ultimately a more southern impact.

I hope not Seaforth! Have a beach house down there....not that I believe it will make too much difference in wind speeds if indeed my Bloomsbury theory comes true? Very short distance across Repulse bay from Seaforth.

How's everyone's preparations going? I'm heading into Mackay tomorrow to do a clean up around the yard and get a few bits and pieces sorted.It's hard to not be excited/anxious about the uncertainty of it all. I guess it's just a matter of that old saying, be prepared.It's certainly going to be an action filled week for QLD with plenty of rain forecast as well.I may have a couple of cold frosty beverages tomorrow night just to knock the edge off. I wish all of you happy weather watching and a safe week!

all organised Hailin, as i am sure many who are taking this system seriously, conversely though i know of many who still believe there is no threat and are running the gauntlet so to speak. Seen many posting on facebook and such that the threat is still Tully area and further nth.

Edited by breezy04 (25/03/201718:41)Edit Reason: spelling

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Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It's not.Dr. Seuss

To be honest, it [censored] me to tears that the complacency of people who I try to get through to just shines through! For years I've been fascinated with these things and understand the mechanisms that affect them and I get looked at like I'm an absolute twit when I try to warn people that this is a real threat to our region. I'm at the point where I say "bugger it, let the process of natural selection take place"......

The 1918 cyclone had a tidal surge which reached a couple of houses away from my grandparents house in George Street, near the Milton Street intersection (that's a few Ks from the coast). There was a line of pumice stone embedded in the ground there.

The 1918 cyclone had a tidal surge which reached a couple of houses away from my grandparents house in George Street, near the Milton Street intersection (that's a few Ks from the coast). There was a line of pumice stone embedded in the ground there.

They wouldn't have had any notice or warning I guess either. Hard to imagine what that would have been like to go through.

The 1918 cyclone had a tidal surge which reached a couple of houses away from my grandparents house in George Street, near the Milton Street intersection (that's a few Ks from the coast). There was a line of pumice stone embedded in the ground there.

P.S. Just for the time line, at the time I was told the storey, it was my grandparents house, but when it actually happened the 5 acre block back then was my great-great-grandparents.

Oh I have no idea.... voted for Townsville in the poll thingy last night, thought it would actually be Cardwell the other day.....now I'm thinking the picture will be a bit clearer tonight....maybe...?

Residents in Whitsunday council region Red and Orange zones to evacuate todayDue to the forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology for Tropical Cyclone Debbie:Red Zone – You are directed to evacuate your propertyOrange Zone – You are directed to evacuate your propertyYellow Zone – voluntary evacuations are recommended today, evacuate if directedTropical Cyclone Debbie is currently a category 2 system and is likely to reach category 4 intensity at the time of crossing the Queensland coast, possibly even category 5.Based on current forecasts as at 8am Sunday 26 March 2017, significant storm tide is expected across the Whitsunday Council Region.Across the Whitsunday Council Region, Storm Tide is expected to effect and inundate the Red and Orange Zones. A Queensland Police directed evacuation has been ordered for the Red and Orange zones.If your property is located in the Red and Orange Zones, you should finalise your cyclone preparations and packing of your evacuation kit and evacuate the Whitsunday Council Region and Cyclone Warning area by Sunday evening.Chair of the Whitsunday Disaster Management Group and Whitsunday Regional Council Mayor Andrew Willcox said you should seek shelter with friends or family in the Blue or White zones to remove yourself from the Storm Tide risk.“If you are unable to evacuate, the Cyclone Shelters in Bowen and Proserpine will be opened on Monday as a last resort,” he said today.“The cyclone shelters have capacity for 800 people each and are only available to those people at highest risk from cyclone effects that have no other option.”Residents in the Yellow storm tide evacuation zone are also encouraged to prepare to leave and finalise all cyclone preparations.Yellow zone residents need to be ready to evacuate if directed, and reminded that leaving evacuation until Monday may mean evacuation routes are flooded and residents may not be able to leave the area.For all the latest up to date information, follow the Whitsunday Disaster & Emergency Facebook page here - https://www.facebook.com/WhitsundayDisasterandEmergencyInf…/Evacuation (Storm Tide) Maps and video can be viewed here - http://www.whitsunday.qld.gov.au/522/Evacuation-Storm-Tide

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Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It's not.Dr. Seuss

I don't normally weigh in on this sort of stuff....but....on any given day we normally have 7000 sparrows here due to my chooks and parrots throwing their food and seed out of the cages. Today they are non existent, there were pee wee's everywhere this morning but all have gone quiet. Just may be an indicator of some heavy weather coming?

Erratic moving or looping TCs are storms that move at speeds less than three knots and have significant changes in direction over short periods of time. These significant changes in storm direction are at times characterized by looping or circular direction changes (Fig. 4.5).

2.5 Equatorward of the Ridge

Edited by breezy04 (26/03/201714:57)

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Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It's not.Dr. Seuss

GFS has been sticking to the Whitsundays crossing for days but because the model was slow in developing the TC, most people have been discounting it to a degree. EC has surprised me with it latest one though.

I've said Bloomsbury from the get go before it even became an invest.... I'm happy enough to take a slight error to the north if it crosses at the Whitsunday Islands. For you guys in the Whitsundays I'm hoping the effects won't smash you around too much, scary enough down here on the southern side let alone at ground zero! Stay safe you lot.....

By the way, I'm still sticking to my just south of Proserpine crossing....

Saw about twenty truck loads of rubbish being taken to the Prossy dump from Cannonvale transfer station so i think people started to finally got the message today that this was getting bloody real. School i work at shut for the next two days at least probably longer with power outages taken into consideration plus damage.

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Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It's not.Dr. Seuss

BOM take an average of ALL the models. Currently the most northern outlier is Townsville and the most southern Mackay from the more reputable models. So, given that, expect a more southern trend on crossing point for their next track map.

-- IMPORTANT NOTES ON COMPUTER MODEL PREDICTIONS -- Computer modelling this evening has been moving the expected crossing of Cyclone Debbie to the Bowen region as a Category 4. At this stage, 5 of the 7 models surveyed (71%) predict a crossing in, or south of, Bowen. Only 1 computer model is still predicting a crossing between Townsville and Ayr, and 1 other is predicting a crossing over Ayr.

This makes the situation complicated now, as the Bureau's official forecast favours a crossing at Ayr, while the prediction from the JTWC (who are typically more accurate than the BOM) are also predicting a crossing in the Home Hill region.

For now, it's worth remembering that models are predicting a crossing in Bowen, and preparing for that possibility, but keeping in mind that all official agencies predict a crossing in Ayr.

If the cyclone does cross the coast at Bowen, all locations in the forecast wind list above from Bowen, south, would have about 50 km/h added to their predicted wind. So, instead of >90 km/h for Mackay, we would be looking more at >140 km/h for Mackay.

-- RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES --

Most Northern Point where Cyclone has potential to cross:• Townsville

Most Southern Point where Cyclone has potential to cross:• Proserpine

-- NEXT TRACK MAP -- The BOM's next track map will be issued around 11pm Sunday

*Just copied and pasted from Mackay and district weather updated facebook page looks like models are indicating a more southern impact*

Those rain bands coming in have got a bit of beef in them now Just heard reports on the radio of power outages in Slade Point, a power pole down in South Mackay and traffic lights out in Paradise Street.

All good at Mt Julian. We have power and the odd very strong gust but haven't heard any tree branches breaking yet. I've got a UPS for my computer and a genny ready to go, so i'll be here until I fall asleep.

Have watched for many years, yet never commented. Its getting a bit hectic in the main debbie thread. In your opinions how many more updates till we can be pretty sure of a crossing closer to Bowen than Mackay.

Have watched for many years, yet never commented. Its getting a bit hectic in the main debbie thread. In your opinions how many more updates till we can be pretty sure of a crossing closer to Bowen than Mackay.

My opinion - probably by around the 2am update they should be pretty confident - 6hrs out from current predicted time of landfall (just after 8am). She's still dipping, dodging and winding all over the place.

Man it sure is ramping up here at Walkerston. Keep an eye on the rainfall totals Clarke Range etc. This will show you what heavy rain is like. Going to be good run in the Pioneer River for a couple of days.

The observations in Mackay and Hay point are not showing anything too strong. But I swear the wind is gusting over 100k here now the whole house is shuddering. But we are on the upslope of a hill. Still have power.... unbelievable. At least we will be able to see soon. Its going to be a long day.

Man it sure is ramping up here at Walkerston. Keep an eye on the rainfall totals Clarke Range etc. This will show you what heavy rain is like. Going to be good run in the Pioneer River for a couple of days.

Just thought I'd post some 100mm+ rainfall totals from 9am for the area so far:

Man it sure is ramping up here at Walkerston. Keep an eye on the rainfall totals Clarke Range etc. This will show you what heavy rain is like. Going to be good run in the Pioneer River for a couple of days.

Just thought I'd post some 100mm+ rainfall totals from 9am for the area so far:

Man it sure is ramping up here at Walkerston. Keep an eye on the rainfall totals Clarke Range etc. This will show you what heavy rain is like. Going to be good run in the Pioneer River for a couple of days.

Just thought I'd post some 100mm+ rainfall totals from 9am for the area so far:

Man it sure is ramping up here at Walkerston. Keep an eye on the rainfall totals Clarke Range etc. This will show you what heavy rain is like. Going to be good run in the Pioneer River for a couple of days.

Just thought I'd post some 100mm+ rainfall totals from 9am for the area so far:

Yeah, it's been a while since I've been on here. It's not too bad around my place at the moment. Only getting gusts below 30kmh. My weather station gave up the ghost last year & I haven't been able to replace it, so have to use the hand-held to get wind readings. I don't mind going outside at the moment, it's quite invigorating & I have to keep checking on my damn cat Elly, who refuses to come inside. She's sitting in my carport, just watching the wind & rain. I'm going to have to give her a new nickname, I think Stormcat might be the go, LOL! She seems to be enjoying it. Hope you're staying safe, Hailin.

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It is best to read the weather forecast before praying for rain. --- Mark Twain

Man it sure is ramping up here at Walkerston. Keep an eye on the rainfall totals Clarke Range etc. This will show you what heavy rain is like. Going to be good run in the Pioneer River for a couple of days.

Just thought I'd post some 100mm+ rainfall totals from 9am for the area so far:

Yes starting to see real impressive totals. Just wait until the eye infills and she starts to really rain. Anyone in Rocky keep your eyes on the Upper Bee and Funnel Creek alerts. This is where the big floods come from.

Yeah, it's been a while since I've been on here. It's not too bad around my place at the moment. Only getting gusts below 30kmh. My weather station gave up the ghost last year & I haven't been able to replace it, so have to use the hand-held to get wind readings. I don't mind going outside at the moment, it's quite invigorating & I have to keep checking on my damn cat Elly, who refuses to come inside. She's sitting in my carport, just watching the wind & rain. I'm going to have to give her a new nickname, I think Stormcat might be the go, LOL! She seems to be enjoying it. Hope you're staying safe, Hailin.

Seems to have settled down here too in the last hour or so. Bit hairy earlier but no dramas really. 122.5mm overnight.

bloody devastating to see whats happening to this town, house has seemed to hold up pretty well except for some minor water leaking in the roof and walls. Bloody ground is sopping and just about slop from the top down to about 500mm. Not far off seeing the eye now and then we have the return journey to contend with.

_________________________
Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It's not.Dr. Seuss

Weather stations in Mackay seem to be underreporting compared to other areas.

Marian recorded 139 km/h prior to the power going out not too long ago.

My weather station at Eton lost power at the same time having only recorded 91 km/h. I'm not there currently but am receiving frequent reports. Apparently the wind have significantly increased at my station there in the last 30 minutes but the wind sensor on my Vue has failed and is reporting 0 km/h

Yep I would have to say that current conditions are the worst we've had so far from this system in Mackay in terms of wind and rain. Lost power around 1:20pm, just cranked the genny up. Lucky to have lasted that long IMO. No complaints here, this is nothing compared to further north.

Major Flood Warning for the Pioneer RiverIssued at 1:38 pm EST on Tuesday 28 March 2017Flood Warning Number: 5Major flood levels are possible on the Pioneer River at Mirani late Tuesday evening.Widespread rainfall totals of 100-200 mm were recorded over the Pioneer River catchment in the 24 hours to 9:00 am Tuesday, with local falls of approximately 330-460 mm over the ranges in the upper catchment. In the 4 hours to 1:00 pm Tuesday, widespread falls up to approximately 50 mm have been recorded, with local falls of approximately 100-170 mm over the ranges.Heavy rainfall will continue during Tuesday, but is expected to begin easing during Wednesday.Pioneer River:Minor to moderate flood levels are occurring in the Pioneer River, Cattle Creek and Blacks Creek.

Rapid river and creek level rises are likely in the upper catchment where the rainfall is heaviest.There are currently no observations at Mirani. The river level is expected to be around the minor flood level (6.00 m) early Tuesday afternoon. Based on the forecast rainfall, the river level is likely to exceed the moderate flood level (8.00 m) Tuesday evening. The river level may exceed the major flood level (9.00 m) late Tuesday evening. Predictions will be updated as required.The Pioneer River at Mackay is currently at 5.70 metres and falling. The Pioneer River at Mackay is likely to reach the minor flood level (7.00 m) overnight Tuesday into Wednesday on the high tide. Similar levels are again likely on the high tide early Wednesday afternoon. Higher levels are possible but dependent on rainfall. Predictions will be updated as required.

Major Flood Warning for the Pioneer RiverIssued at 5:20 pm EST on Tuesday 28 March 2017Flood Warning Number: 6Major flood levels are possible on the Pioneer River at Mirani by late Tuesday evening.Widespread rainfall totals of 100-200 mm were recorded over the Pioneer River catchment in the 24 hours to 9:00 am Tuesday, with local falls of approximately 330-460 mm over the ranges in the upper catchment. In the 8 hours to 5:00 pm Tuesday, widespread falls of 40-100 mm have been recorded, with local falls of approximately 200-430 mm over the ranges.Heavy rainfall will continue during Tuesday evening, but is expected to begin easing during Wednesday.Pioneer River:Minor to moderate flood levels are occurring in the Pioneer River, Cattle Creek and Blacks Creek, with rises above the major flood level possible in the upper reaches.

Rapid river and creek level rises are likely in the upper catchment where the rainfall is heaviest.There are currently no observations at Mirani. Based on the forecast rainfall, the river level is likely to exceed the moderate flood level (8.00 m) early Tuesday evening. The river level is likely to exceed the major flood level (9.00 m) by late Tuesday evening. Predictions will be updated as required.The Pioneer River at Mackay is currently at 5.05 metres and rising. The river level is likely to reach around 7.50 metres overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Similar levels are again likely on the high tide early Wednesday afternoon. Higher levels are possible but dependent on heavy rainfall continuing. Predictions will be updated as required.Flood Safety Advice:Remember: If it's flooded, forget it. For flood emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500. For life threatening emergencies, call Triple Zero (000) immediately.Current emergency information is available at www.qld.gov.au/alertsNext Issue:The next warning will be issued by 09:00 pm EST on Tuesday 28 March 2017.Latest River Heights:LocationHeight of River (m) TendencyDate/Time of ObservationTeemburra Ck at Teemburra Dam HW Alert0.80Rising04:40 PM TUE 28/03/17Blacks Ck at Whitefords Alert5.64Rising04:38 PM TUE 28/03/17Pioneer R at Sarichs Alert9.31Rising05:01 PM TUE 28/03/17Finch Hatton Ck at Dam Site TM2.727Rising12:20 AM TUE 28/03/17Cattle Ck at Finch Hatton Alert4.91Rising05:03 PM TUE 28/03/17Cattle Ck at Frank Neilsen Br TM6.56Rising04:10 PM TUE 28/03/17Pioneer R at Mirani Weir HW TM49.76Rising04:45 PM TUE 28/03/17Pioneer R at Mirani Weir TW Alert9.24Rising05:01 PM TUE 28/03/17Pioneer R at Marian Weir Alert3.51Steady05:00 PM TUE 28/03/17Pioneer R at Dumbleton Rocks Alert18.15Rising05:02 PM TUE 28/03/17Pioneer R at Hospital Br Alert7.10Rising05:03 PM TUE 28/03/17Pioneer R at Mackay Alert5.05Rising04:59 PM TUE 28/03/17Outer Harbour Tide TM1.78Steady04:18 PM TUE 28/03/17

Looks like Debbie has a bit more rain in store for us before she heads off, some really good feeder bands becoming visible on the Mackay radar and some with areas of heavy rain. Carmilla has been copping a flogging from a feeder band for the past several hours.

Major Flood Warning for the Pioneer RiverIssued at 5:08 am EST on Wednesday 29 March 2017Flood Warning Number: 8Moderate flood levels are possible at Mackay late Wednesday morning, and major flood levels are expected to be continuing at Mirani. Widespread rainfall totals of 200-500 mm have been recorded over the Pioneer River catchment in the past 48 hours, with locally heavier falls of 800-1000 mm recorded over the ranges.Heavy rainfall will continue during Wednesday morning, but is expected to begin easing during Wednesday afternoon.Pioneer River:Major flood levels are continuing in the Pioneer River at Sarich's and Mirani Weir, and moderate flood levels are continuing in Blacks Creek at Whitefords and Cattle Creek at Finch Hatton.

The catchment is currently saturated and rivers and creeks will respond quickly to any further rainfall.There are currently no observations at Mirani. It is expected that the river level at Mirani is above the major flood level (9.0 metres) and near a peak of 11.0 metres. Major flooding is expected to continue during Wednesday morning.The Pioneer River at Mackay is currently at 6.50 metres and rising. The flood peak may coincide with the high tide in the Pioneer River at Mackay, and if this happens, the river level may reach around the moderate flood level (8.00 metres) late on Wednesday morning. The river level may reach the minor flood level (7.00 m) again on the high tide overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

Balnagowan (between The Leap n Pleystowe) 463mmyesterday recorded but think a bit might have blown over the top of gauge. Today not sure how much but it has been torrential for a few hours with small breaks in between. Big flooding comparable to 2008 for this area.

Pretty ordinary in Debbie thread people complaining about missing out and looking forward to next cyclone when so many were touched by the destruction of Debbie still are and it's going to take years to recover! Thinking of everyone in the Whitsundays who felt her full wrath! Heading up this weekend to help mates who have lost too much! Very sad time!

Hope everyone is ok after that, [censored] that took its time! No idea how much rain we got, davis vantage vue could not keep up then broke at 312mm. All the gauges were full of course. Honestly amazing rain 600mm at Clark range is not suprising.

Finally turned the laptop on and connected to the iphone wifi. No power here and there's power lines down everywhere so most likely a week without at least. Had a drive to Canonvale yesterday arvo as the road was reopened. The cane look devistrating.

Yeah Rainrunner, I noticed that this arvo that it was not working. I was going to message you, but had a couple of meetings happening.Hope you and the family stay safe

I did slip into the mill and had a quick look at the station before conditioned deteriorated too badly and saw the anemometer spinning around so looked ok mechanically. At 1am the next morning i saw it was working again with a gust of 63k/h before the power went out. Hopefully we get power back on to the mill soon otherwise the data will be overwritten and lost. Anyway see what happens.

Phone reception is knocked out currently, but last time I was in contact with my family who live at the property where I've got the station set up, it had recorded 790mm of rain in the 30 hours to 8pm last night.