What the hell is happening to the Democratic party? If Democrats do indeed lose the New Jersey Assembly, something is VERY, VERY wrong. I havent seen a party get beat up this badly in an off year election since Watergate.

Eh, I wouldn't read that much into some election for a house seat in the western suburbs of Oklahoma City.

The one in Tennessee is more important because it gives the GOP there a much more secure hold on the State House than before and GOP prospects to win the governorship in 2010 look pretty good right now (which would affect redistricting).

Let's see what happens in NJ and VA next month. I have to say that Moderate's proposition that Jersey voters may CTA voting Republican in Assembly elections if they think Corzine will be re-elected is certainly not an unreasonable one.

Eh, I wouldn't read that much into some election for a house seat in the western suburbs of Oklahoma City.

The one in Tennessee is more important because it gives the GOP there a much more secure hold on the State House than before and GOP prospects to win the governorship in 2010 look pretty good right now (which would affect redistricting).

Let's see what happens in NJ and VA next month. I have to say that Moderate's proposition that Jersey voters may CTA voting Republican in Assembly elections if they think Corzine will be re-elected is certainly not an unreasonable one.

I dont think most voters think that way. Are voters going to vote Democratic in 2010 because they think there will likely be a Republican President in 2012? I guess a more reasonable comparison would be Virginia voters electing a Democratic House of Delegates because they are certain that McDonnell will win.

Eh, I wouldn't read that much into some election for a house seat in the western suburbs of Oklahoma City.

The one in Tennessee is more important because it gives the GOP there a much more secure hold on the State House than before and GOP prospects to win the governorship in 2010 look pretty good right now (which would affect redistricting).

Let's see what happens in NJ and VA next month. I have to say that Moderate's proposition that Jersey voters may CTA voting Republican in Assembly elections if they think Corzine will be re-elected is certainly not an unreasonable one.

I dont think most voters think that way. Are voters going to vote Democratic in 2010 because they think there will likely be a Republican President in 2012? I guess a more reasonable comparison would be Virginia voters electing a Democratic House of Delegates because they are certain that McDonnell will win.

Perhaps it's not the exact way voters are thinking, however, it's important to note that it's not Corzine voters who are going to be hedging. Corzine voters are pulling the Dem lever downballot at the same rate Christie voters are pulling the GOP lever downballot.

The key in these Assembly races are Daggett voters. The PPP poll internals show that they prefer a generic Republican Assembly candidate over a Democrat by a margin of two to one.

What the hell is happening to the Democratic party? If Democrats do indeed lose the New Jersey Assembly, something is VERY, VERY wrong. I havent seen a party get beat up this badly in an off year election since Watergate.

Eh? Republicans held the NJ Assembly during this very decade. And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election. The Republicans could win the PV by as much as 8-10% and still fail to take the Assembly.

What the hell is happening to the Democratic party? If Democrats do indeed lose the New Jersey Assembly, something is VERY, VERY wrong. I havent seen a party get beat up this badly in an off year election since Watergate.

Eh? Republicans held the NJ Assembly during this very decade. And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election. The Republicans could win the PV by as much as 8-10% and still fail to take the Assembly.

Not since redistricting they haven't.

But yeah, the deck is HEAVILY stacked in the Democrats' favor. Republicans winning the Assembly hinges on the GOP taking seats that Obama probably won with about 70% of the vote.

What the hell is happening to the Democratic party? If Democrats do indeed lose the New Jersey Assembly, something is VERY, VERY wrong. I havent seen a party get beat up this badly in an off year election since Watergate.

Eh? Republicans held the NJ Assembly during this very decade. And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election. The Republicans could win the PV by as much as 8-10% and still fail to take the Assembly.

Not since redistricting they haven't.

But yeah, the deck is HEAVILY stacked in the Democrats' favor. Republicans winning the Assembly hinges on the GOP taking seats that Obama probably won with about 70% of the vote.

What kind of seats did Republicans have to hold in the 1990's to keep a majority? Were the district lines just very GOP favorable then?

What the hell is happening to the Democratic party? If Democrats do indeed lose the New Jersey Assembly, something is VERY, VERY wrong. I havent seen a party get beat up this badly in an off year election since Watergate.

Eh? Republicans held the NJ Assembly during this very decade. And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election. The Republicans could win the PV by as much as 8-10% and still fail to take the Assembly.

Not since redistricting they haven't.

But yeah, the deck is HEAVILY stacked in the Democrats' favor. Republicans winning the Assembly hinges on the GOP taking seats that Obama probably won with about 70% of the vote.

What kind of seats did Republicans have to hold in the 1990's to keep a majority? Were the district lines just very GOP favorable then?

District lines were much more favorable to the GOP, yes. The 1990s lines are generally considered a GOP gerrymander; 2000s are a Dem gerrymander. Even though both were technically drawn by independent commission.

Republicans scored 58 seats to Democrats' 22 in the 1991 anti-Florio superlandslide. They slowly hemorrhaged the unholdable, intensely Democratic seats throughout the decade, but always had solid control.

Since redistricting, the main Dem pickups were in District 1 (Heavily GOP, but Republicans essentially handed Democrats these seats via a 2005 ballot-access signature snafu); District 3 (both longtime GOP incumbents retired during a good Dem year); District 4 (top GOP prospect this year, always "lean Dem" but made slightly more Dem through redistricting); District 22 (shifted from lean GOP to strong Dem via redistricting); District 34 (shifted from toss-up to safe Dem via redistricting); District 36 (shifted from toss-up to strong Dem via redistricting); and District 38 (shifted from lean GOP to strong Dem via redistricting).

What the hell is happening to the Democratic party? If Democrats do indeed lose the New Jersey Assembly, something is VERY, VERY wrong. I havent seen a party get beat up this badly in an off year election since Watergate.

Eh? Republicans held the NJ Assembly during this very decade. And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election. The Republicans could win the PV by as much as 8-10% and still fail to take the Assembly.

Not since redistricting they haven't.

But yeah, the deck is HEAVILY stacked in the Democrats' favor. Republicans winning the Assembly hinges on the GOP taking seats that Obama probably won with about 70% of the vote.

What kind of seats did Republicans have to hold in the 1990's to keep a majority? Were the district lines just very GOP favorable then?

District lines were much more favorable to the GOP, yes. The 1990s lines are generally considered a GOP gerrymander; 2000s are a Dem gerrymander. Even though both were technically drawn by independent commission.

Republicans scored 58 seats to Democrats' 22 in the 1991 anti-Florio superlandslide. They slowly hemorrhaged the unholdable, intensely Democratic seats throughout the decade, but always had solid control.

Since redistricting, the main Dem pickups were in District 1 (Heavily GOP, but Republicans essentially handed Democrats these seats via a 2005 ballot-access signature snafu); District 3 (both longtime GOP incumbents retired during a good Dem year); District 4 (top GOP prospect this year, always "lean Dem" but made slightly more Dem through redistricting); District 22 (shifted from lean GOP to strong Dem via redistricting); District 34 (shifted from toss-up to safe Dem via redistricting); District 36 (shifted from toss-up to strong Dem via redistricting); and District 38 (shifted from lean GOP to strong Dem via redistricting).

Was the 1970's map a Dem gerrymander? I know Democrats held a two to one lead after the 1973 election, which slowly shrank until about they finally lost control again in 1985. Democrats must have held seats in places like Hunterdon county to have that many seats.

Legislative elections are held in November of each odd-numbered year. Members of the Assembly serve two-year terms. Senators serve four-year terms, except for the first term of a new decade, which is only two years. This "2-4-4" cycle allows for elections from new districts as soon as possible after each reapportionment.

Two State Assemblymen/women (in each odd year) and one State Senator (in years ending in "1", "3" or "7") are elected from each Legislative district. Comparing both the 2007 primary and general election results for State Senate and General Assembly, normal "block voting" or "plurality at large" seems to be used for elections to the New Jersey General Assembly. Interestingly though, two Assembly candidates can bracket themselves with each other. Slogans are used in the primary to indicate ideology or who are the "regular" party candidates (presumably those endorsed by the local county committee). I'm not sure if voters can vote for both candidates by checking one box of not, but they clearly don't have to as I see candidates bracketed with each other with different vote totals. Perhaps a New Jersey forumite can explain how that works, and whether or not New Jersey has a "big box" or "one lever" voting option in the general election (Maine got rid of its big box in 1972).

There are a bunch of special elections occurring on November 3. So far I've found:

Alabama HD65 - D Mark Keahey was elected to the State Senate, candidates are D Elaine Beech and R Jerry Reed.

Georgia SD1 - Open R seat, two Rs running: Buddy Carter and Billy Hair.Georgia SD35 - Open D seat, there are nine (!) Democrats running and no Republicans. The Georgia races will require a runoff if nobody gets 50%+1.Georgia HD58 - Open D seat, four Ds and an I running.Georgia HD75 - Open D seat; candidates are D Ron Dodson and R Shawn James.Georgia HD129 - Open R seat, 4 Rs running.Georgia HD141 - Open D seat; candidates are D Darrell Black, Rs Angela Gheesling-McCommon and Casey Tucker, and I "Rusty" Kidd. This is probably the only one that will be interesting.Georgia HD159 - Open R seat, two Rs running: Ann Purcell and Jesse Tyler.

Michigan SD19 - Mark Schauer's Senate seat, don't know why it took them a year to fill it, but the candidates are D State Rep. Martin Griffin and R ex-State Rep. Mike Nofs.

Missouri SD4 - D Jeff Smith can't get to Washington, but he is going to jail. D Joe Keaveney is unopposed.Missouri HD73 - Same as above but without a clever joke; D Steve Brown is out. Candidates are D Stacey Newman and R Daniel O'Sullivan.

New Hampshire HD Merrimack-11 - Open D seat. Candidates are D Jim MacKay and R Lynne Blankenbeker. Funnily enough, both unsuccessfully ran as Republicans in 2008 (it's normally a 5-member district). MacKay used to be in the legislature, in fact.

South Carolina HD48 - Open R seat; candidates are D Kathy Cantrell and R Ralph Norman (who used to represent this district; you may remember from his 2006 run for John Spratt's seat).

Washington HD9 - R seat, race between two Rs, Susan Fagan and Pat Hailey. Yawn.Washington HD15 - Appointed R David Taylor is running for the rest of his term; candidates are he and Dem John Gotts.Washington HD16 - Same with appointed D Laura Grant; her opponent is R Terry Nealey.

Legislative elections are held in November of each odd-numbered year. Members of the Assembly serve two-year terms. Senators serve four-year terms, except for the first term of a new decade, which is only two years. This "2-4-4" cycle allows for elections from new districts as soon as possible after each reapportionment.

Two State Assemblymen/women (in each odd year) and one State Senator (in years ending in "1", "3" or "7") are elected from each Legislative district. Comparing both the 2007 primary and general election results for State Senate and General Assembly, normal "block voting" or "plurality at large" seems to be used for elections to the New Jersey General Assembly. Interestingly though, two Assembly candidates can bracket themselves with each other. Slogans are used in the primary to indicate ideology or who are the "regular" party candidates (presumably those endorsed by the local county committee). I'm not sure if voters can vote for both candidates by checking one box of not, but they clearly don't have to as I see candidates bracketed with each other with different vote totals. Perhaps a New Jersey forumite can explain how that works, and whether or not New Jersey has a "big box" or "one lever" voting option in the general election (Maine got rid of its big box in 1972).

Nope, you need to vote for each candidate separately. There's no party-line lever.

And there are two Special Elections in New Jersey for the State Senate, though neither is competitive.

Legislative elections are held in November of each odd-numbered year. Members of the Assembly serve two-year terms. Senators serve four-year terms, except for the first term of a new decade, which is only two years. This "2-4-4" cycle allows for elections from new districts as soon as possible after each reapportionment.

Two State Assemblymen/women (in each odd year) and one State Senator (in years ending in "1", "3" or "7") are elected from each Legislative district. Comparing both the 2007 primary and general election results for State Senate and General Assembly, normal "block voting" or "plurality at large" seems to be used for elections to the New Jersey General Assembly. Interestingly though, two Assembly candidates can bracket themselves with each other. Slogans are used in the primary to indicate ideology or who are the "regular" party candidates (presumably those endorsed by the local county committee). I'm not sure if voters can vote for both candidates by checking one box of not, but they clearly don't have to as I see candidates bracketed with each other with different vote totals. Perhaps a New Jersey forumite can explain how that works, and whether or not New Jersey has a "big box" or "one lever" voting option in the general election (Maine got rid of its big box in 1972).

Nope, you need to vote for each candidate separately. There's no party-line lever.

And there are two Special Elections in New Jersey for the State Senate, though neither is competitive.

Legislative elections are held in November of each odd-numbered year. Members of the Assembly serve two-year terms. Senators serve four-year terms, except for the first term of a new decade, which is only two years. This "2-4-4" cycle allows for elections from new districts as soon as possible after each reapportionment.

Two State Assemblymen/women (in each odd year) and one State Senator (in years ending in "1", "3" or "7") are elected from each Legislative district. Comparing both the 2007 primary and general election results for State Senate and General Assembly, normal "block voting" or "plurality at large" seems to be used for elections to the New Jersey General Assembly. Interestingly though, two Assembly candidates can bracket themselves with each other. Slogans are used in the primary to indicate ideology or who are the "regular" party candidates (presumably those endorsed by the local county committee). I'm not sure if voters can vote for both candidates by checking one box of not, but they clearly don't have to as I see candidates bracketed with each other with different vote totals. Perhaps a New Jersey forumite can explain how that works, and whether or not New Jersey has a "big box" or "one lever" voting option in the general election (Maine got rid of its big box in 1972).

Nope, you need to vote for each candidate separately. There's no party-line lever.

And there are two Special Elections in New Jersey for the State Senate, though neither is competitive.

This district is the white part of Chatham County (so minus most of Savannah) along with adjacent Bryan and Liberty Counties. Carter's the former mayor of Pooler (in Chatham), and represents an Assembly District that overlaps with this Senate district basically just in the immediate vicinity of Pooler (which is a sizeable chunk of the district, but still). He seems to be pretty popular. Billy Hair was the two-term Chatham County Commission Chairman for, I believe, 1998-2006.

My guess is that west Chatham goes strongly for Carter and rest of the county for Hair. I have no idea how things are on the ground but my best guess says that Carter carries the other two counties and keeps the margin in Chatham close enough for a victory. This is just a guess though, I'm assuming Carter's more involved here since he's actually giving up an elected position while Hair is in election semi-retirement. Consider this race to lean Carter.

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Georgia SD35 - Open D seat, there are nine (!) Democrats running and no Republicans. The Georgia races will require a runoff if nobody gets 50%+1.

Kasim Reed's seat; he's resigning to run for mayor of Atlanta. The district is south Fulton plus part of Douglas County/Douglasville. About two thirds black.

With so many candidates it's of course going to a run-off. Nobody's probably getting more than 30%. Donzella James was this district's Senator for eight years in the 90's so the voters might remember her. Her, Torrey Johnson, Kemiziche Atterbury, and Benny Crane are the likely names for a run-off, though with this many candidates anything can really happen.

I'll talk about the house races tomorrow.

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Georgia HD58 - Open D seat, four Ds and an I running.Georgia HD75 - Open D seat; candidates are D Ron Dodson and R Shawn James.Georgia HD129 - Open R seat, 4 Rs running.Georgia HD141 - Open D seat; candidates are D Darrell Black, Rs Angela Gheesling-McCommon and Casey Tucker, and I "Rusty" Kidd. This is probably the only one that will be interesting.Georgia HD159 - Open R seat, two Rs running: Ann Purcell and Jesse Tyler.

far east Atlanta, including (I think) all of the Dekalb part of the city. About two-thirds black but with some white voters in some of those newly gentrified neighborhoods like Cabbagetown, parts of Reynoldstown, etc.

Kevin Johnson has apparently been working hard as all hell to win this race, apparently personally canvassing every single home in the district. Expect him to win outright, though Michael McPherson could pull him into a runoff if his Cabbagetown base holds for him. McPherson also has good connections with the State Senators in the area (previously working for two of them) though I don't know if that will do much in terms of voter support. If black turnout is incredibly low McPherson could win, but I doubt it.

This one is actually really interesting. Black majority district in central Clayton County (city of Forest Park) and there's practically nothing to be found about it in the print media or on the internet. Ron Dodson is a white guy that held the district from 1998 to 2006, and won legislator of the year once apparently. Shawn James is a black guy whose campaign is making no reference to his party affiliation. I'm assuming that Ron Dodson will cruise back into his old seat but depending on what's happening on the ground, anything could happen.

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Georgia HD129 - Open R seat, 4 Rs running.

Rural/suburbanish area just north of Colombus. Vance Smith resigned to take a seat on the state Transportation Commission. The biggest candidate looks to be his son, Kip Smith. The other candidates are two businessmen (Steve Earles and Jerry Luquire) and Former Representative Earl Davis, who held this seat from 1969-1974 (lol). This is a part of the state that's a bit behind the times- none of the candidates have anything on the internet, and most of the newspapers don't really have much in the way of a website either.

Because of that handicap I'm guessing this half-blind, but unless Kip's campaign has been blunderingly incompetent I assume he'll win convincingly.

Purcell is from Pooler and held this seat until Carter kicked her out of it in 2004. Tyler is 25, the Vice Chairman of Georgia College Republicans, and has a lot of big campaign work experience. I assume Tyler will win but that depends on how much of Purcell's old base has stayed with her.

Georgia HD141 - Open D seat; candidates are D Darrell Black, Rs Angela Gheesling-McCommon and Casey Tucker, and I "Rusty" Kidd. This is probably the only one that will be interesting.

This district is Baldwin County; Millidgeville. About 40% black. It's a college town so white voters are a bit less Republican than normal. I agree with you that this is the most interesting race.

Darrell Black is a white Democrat and a businessman. He's running TV ads, and I think is the only candidate doing so.

Angela Gheesling-McCommon is the director of the County Development Authority and the candidate the county Republican Party seems to be lining behind.

Casey Tucker is a 22 year old that just graduated and is running for office. Non-factor; at best he'll drain some of the conservative student vote away from Gheesling-McCommon.

But now, for Rusty Kidd. This guy's just awesome. For all four years of high school he was the starting quarterback at Baldwin High School, and a basketball player too. His father held this seat for a decade, served on the Baldwin County Commission, and then held the area's State Senate seat for thirty years (1962-1992). He's definitely got huge recognition in the district. Also, his sister was a Congresswoman known for being a feminist Republican.

He's been a state lobbyist since 1972, with a list on his website of all the different groups he's represented. Jimmy Carter called him "the most influential lobbyist in the state" once. He's also built an insurance agency in the Baldwin area from the ground up, which now has seventeen offices throughout Middle Georgia.

He has huge civic connections in the county as well, being on the board of the local Habitat for Humanity, Chairman of the state Special Olympics, and donates money to dozens of local causes. He even gave his own stand-up wheelchair to a Milledgeville barber that recently became paralyzed.

Oh yeah, wheelchair. About that: Kidd is paraplegic.

His policies are very well thought out, seems to have a strong following, and argues that because of his extensive personal connections from lobbying he will be effective and bipartisan without needing to tie himself to the less reputable elements of either party.

Honestly, though, I'm assuming this will be going to a runoff between two of the three "real" candidates, and it will be close. No idea about anything else but I'm definitely crossing my fingers for some awesome independent win here.