Friday, February 22, 2013

Previewing the NFL Hall of Fame Class of 2014

By Dan Trammel
@HighwaytoHall

I am pleasantly surprised by the announcement of the NFL Hall of Fame Class of 2013. I did not believe the voters would get it right. That is not to say that I do not think the voters do a terrific job, or that their job is an easy one. On the contrary, it is exceptionally difficult and I believe the voters do a terrific job. How do you select 5 Hall of Famers out of a group of 13 or 14 Hall of Famers? Regardless of who you pick, someone will be upset. But they managed to select the 5 best candidates. Fans can nitpick all they want. In the end, at least eight of the people not selected will eventually enter the Hall of Fame. But you’d be hard-pressed to find 5 better people with whom to start a football team.

In evaluating the finalists, I believed past voting trends would continue to hold true. In some cases, I was correct. Some people believed all four first-time eligible players would be inducted. As this had never happened before, there was little reason to believe it would now.On this point I was correct. But I underestimated how highly the voters would view those four men. I thought Warren Sapp’s personality may be held against him, even though the voters are told only to consider a man’s play on the field. I also thought, as only seven linemen had been elected in their first year of eligibility since 1987, it was unlikely for more than one to do so this year. Yet, the voters selected three.

I also correctly noted it was unlikely for two contributors to make it in the same year. But I was surprised when the voters seemed to switch from Andre Reed to Cris Carter.Reed advanced further in the voting than Carter in 2010 and 2011, but it was Carter who gained induction this year. As such, I only picked 2 of the 5 modern-era candidates correctly. Much to my chagrin, my erroneous predictions were picked up by newspapers across the country. See for example the Troy Record, the San Jose Mercury News, and the York Daily Record. As my predictions for the Class of 2013 were incorrect, my preliminary predictions for the Class of 2014 are also wrong. So let’s again attempt to predict the Class of 2014.

2014 will be an excellent opportunity for the voters to remove some of the backlog of Hall of Fame worthy players. In 2013, there were 4 very strong first-time eligible candidates, 3 of whom were inducted, marking the first time since 2006 that 3 first-time eligible candidates were inducted. Next year does not feature as strong of a cast of candidates.

The top candidates joining the ballot next year are as follows:

Tony Dungy

Mike Holmgren

Jon Gruden

Marvin Harrison

Derrick Brooks

Rodney Harrison

Shaun Alexander(Some people place former Seattle Seahawks left tackle Walter Jones in this group, but we believe he is not eligible until 2015, as he spent all of 2009 on injured reserve). [Note: It turns out we were wrong, Jones is eligible. Here is our assessment of his chances.]

As you can see, three of the candidates are coaches. Each coach has a Super Bowl title. Dungy gets bonus points for building the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from a laughingstock into a perennial playoff team. Holmgren gets bonus points for turning the Green Bay Packers around. Gruden may get bonus points for his announcing career. Regardless, none of these coaches are first-ballot Hall of Famers. Here is a list of the coaches elected in their first year of eligibility: Don Shula (1997), Chuck Noll (1993), and Tom Landry (1990). Not only have these three men not been in my kitchen, they also make up the Mount Rushmore of coaches (or at least are in the discussion).

That brings us to the four players. Let’s start with Rodney Harrison.

Safety is one of the least represented positions in the Hall of Fame. As stated in a previous post, “the career of only one Hall of Fame safety began after the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 (Ronnie Lott).” Here are the nine safeties currently enshrined in Canton:

Jack Christiansen

Mel Renfro

Ken Houston

Emlen Tunnell

Paul Krause

Larry Wilson

Yale Lary

Willie Wood

Ronnie Lott

If these are the safeties considered Hall of Famers, let’s take a look at those the voters have not yet deemed worthy:

Name

Pro Bowls

1st Team All-Pro

2nd Team All-Pro

Games/ Starts

INTs

Rings/ SB Apps

All-Decade

Rodney Harrison

2

2

1

186/159

34

2/3

No

John Lynch

9

2

2

224/191

26

1/1

No

Steve Atwater

8

2

1

167/166

24

2/3

Yes

Joey Browner

6

3

1

145/117

37

0/0

Yes

Deron Cherry

6

3

2

148/124

50

0/0

Yes

Tim McDonald

6

0

4

191/187

40

1/1

No

Dennis Smith

6

0

1

184/170

30

0/1

No

Kenny Easley

5

3

0

89/87

32

0/0

Yes

Carnell Lake

5

1

3

185/171

16

0/1

Yes

Darren Woodson

5

3

0

178/162

23

2/2

No

Leroy Butler

4

4

0

181/165

38

1/2

Yes

Nolan Cromwell

4

3

0

115/108

37

0/1

Yes

Mark Carrier

3

0

1

168/164

32

0/0

No

None of these candidates have ever been discussed by the Hall of Fame committee, meaning they have never been among the 15 finalists. Rodney Harrison won’t either. The last safety among the final 15 was Donnie Shell in 2002. Of the players on the above list, Harrison is far from the most deserving candidate.

Our next candidate is former Seattle Seahawks running back Shaun Alexander. Alexander is a candidate that will garner a significant amount of support from the statheads in about 20 years, by a new wave of statisticians who never saw him play. I doubt anyone on the current committee will vote for him. As impressive as his numbers are, he fails the “feel” or “smell” test. He simply doesn’t feel like a Hall of Famer. His advocates say to compare his numbers to Earl Campbell.

Games

Rushes

Yards

TDs

Y/A

Rec

Yards

TDs

Campbell

115

2187

9407

74

4.3

121

806

0

Alexander

123

2187

9453

100

4.3

215

1520

12

Earl Campbell was a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Alexander is not. Campbell dominated games. He ran with a determination that few players ever have. Alexander had the reputation of being soft.

But he certainly has some nice numbers. Here is the list of players with the most career rushing touchdowns:

Name

TDs

Emmitt Smith

164

LaDainian Tomlinson

145

Marcus Allen

123

Walter Payton

110

Jim Brown

106

John Riggins

104

Marshall Faulk

100

Shaun Alexander

100

Barry Sanders

99

Jerome Bettis

91

Franco Harris

91

Eric Dickerson

90

Curtis Martin

90

But now here is the same players placed in order of career rushing yards:

Name

Rushing Yards

Emmitt Smith

18355

Walter Payton

16726

Barry Sanders

15269

Curtis Martin

14101

LaDainian Tomlinson

13684

Jerome Bettis

13662

Eric Dickerson

13259

Jim Brown

12312

Marshall Faulk

12279

Marcus Allen

12243

Franco Harris

12120

John Riggins

11352

Shaun Alexander

9453

Breaking this list down again in order of yards per carry, Alexander is 6th with a very impressive 4.32 yards per carry. But comparing him to some of his contemporaries, he looks less impressive.

Games

Rushes

Yards

TDs

Y/A

Rec

Yards

TDs

Ahman Green

148

2056

9205

60

4.48

378

2883

14

Shaun Alexander

123

2187

9453

100

4.32

215

1520

12

Clinton Portis

113

2230

9923

75

4.45

247

2018

5

Tiki Barber

154

2217

10449

55

4.71

586

5183

12

Corey Dillon

150

2618

11241

82

4.29

244

1913

7

Fred Taylor

153

2534

11695

66

4.62

290

2384

8

Alexander’s accolades include 3 Pro Bowls, one 1st Team All-Pro selection, one 2nd Team All-Pro selection, and the 2005 NFL MVP Award. The MVP Award is nice but the other accolades are rather pedestrian. Although the touchdown total is difficult to ignore, with Alexander there will probably always be sufficient a sufficient “but…” to keep him out. Regardless, he certainly does not go in this year.

Now we turn to this year’s strongest candidates.

After finishing 6-10 in 1994, the Bucs held the 7th pick in the 1995 NFL draft. They traded the 7th pick and a third round pick (#72) to the Philadelphia Eagles for the Eagles 1st round pick (#12) and two 2nd round picks (#43 and #63). The Eagles infamously selected Mike Mamula with the 7th pick (and Greg Jefferson with the 72nd pick) while the Bucs selected first-ballot Hall of Famer Warren Sapp. The Bucs then traded their 2nd round pick (#41) and one of the picks received from the Eagles (#63) to the Dallas Cowboys in order to move back into the first round. The Bucs selected Derrick Brooks with the pick received from the Cowboys while Dallas chose Ronald Davis (#41) and Shane Hannah (#63) with the two 2nd round picks obtained from Tampa.

Sapp and Brooks teamed with John Lynch (3rd round selection in 1993) to form one of the great defenses in NFL history and help Tampa end a streak of 14 consecutive losing seasons with 6-straight seasons with a winning percentage of .500 or better, including 5 playoff appearances.

In a 14-year career, Brooks’ accolades are as follows:

11 Pro Bowls

5-time 1st Team All-Pro

4-time 2nd Team All-Pro

2002 NFL Defensive Player of the Year

Member of the 2000s All-Decade Team

Member of the Super Bowl XXXVII Champions

Here is a list of the defensive players named to 8 or more Pro Bowls while being selected a 1st-Team All-Pro 5 or more times:

Merlin Olsen

Mike Singletary

Bill George

Reggie White

Lawrence Taylor

Jack Ham

Bob Lilly

Bobby Bell

Deacon Jones

Gino Marchetti

Willie Brown

Deion Sanders

Bruce Smith

Jack Lambert

Larry Wilson

Rod Woodson

Alan Page

Willie Wood

Joe Greene

Randy White

Derrick Brooks

Ronnie Lott

Chuck Bednarik

Ray Lewis

Leo Nomellini

Nick Buoniconti

Junior Seau

Joe Schmidt

Dick Butkus

Ed Reed

All 26 players eligible for the Hall of Fame have been inducted, with Brooks, Lewis, Seau, and Reed waiting their turns. Brooks won’t wait long. He walks in on the first ballot.

Our final first year eligible player is Marvin Harrison. Let’s begin by looking at Harrison’s numbers, and where they rank on the career lists.

Receptions

Receiving Yards

Receiving TDs

Receiving Yds/G

TDs

1102

14580

128

76.7

128

3rd

6th

5th

4th

9th

Additionally, Harrison was named to 8 straight Pro Bowls, was named a 1st-Team All-Pro 3 times, was named a 2nd Team All-Pro 5 times, and was selected to the 2000s All-Decade Team. He also caught a pass in all 190 games in which he played.

Receiving numbers have become increasingly inflated in recent years. As a result, it is more difficult to evaluate receivers. For example, let’s look at the following list of receivers with the most career 1000 yard receiving seasons:

Wide Receiver

Number of 1000 yard seasons

Jerry Rice

14

Randy Moss

10

Tim Brown

9

Terrell Owens

9

Jimmy Smith

9

Isaac Bruce

8

Cris Carter

8

Marvin Harrison

8

Torry Holt

8

Steve Largent

8

Derrick Mason

8

Rod Smith

8

Reggie Wayne

8

Only Steve Largent retired before the 2000s started. Most of these receivers are contemporaries and will compete with each other for the few Hall of Fame spots each year. I have stated before, “As time goes on, and more receivers appear on the ballot, they will continue to cancel each other out. I believe [Tim] Brown is viewed the least favorably of the three, so the voters must decide between [Andre] Reed and [Cris] Carter to help clear the upcoming logjam. Each has his supporters among the voters. Due to his postseason success compared to the others, Reed seemingly is the most likely of the three to gain entry. With that obstacle removed, Carter would be inducted the following year, as his acrobatic sideline catches are too great to ignore. But can they do so before Moss and Owens appear on the ballot? If not, these three receivers may have a very long wait.” Well, obviously I was wrong yet again. Carter made it in first. But will Reed now get in? Harrison is a formidable obstacle to Reed. Although receiving numbers are inflated in this generation, Harrison’s numbers are overwhelming.

What hurts Marvin Harrison, oddly enough, is that he made the game of football look too easy. He and Peyton Manning were virtually unstoppable, though they only won 1 Super Bowl. Some have criticized Harrison’s credentials by saying he played with Manning. Of the 22 modern era Hall of Fame wide receivers, 14 caught most of their touchdown passes by Hall of Fame quarterbacks. In fact, let’s look at the table.

Receiver

Quarterback

TDs

Lance Alworth

John Hadl

56

Raymond Berry

Johnny Unitas*

63

Fred Biletnikoff

Daryle Lamonica

41

Cris Carter

Randall Cunningham

31

Tom Fears

Norm van Brocklin*

20

Bob Hayes

Don Meredith

36

Elroy Hirsch

Norm van Brocklin*

32

Michael Irvin

Troy Aikman*

49

Charlie Joiner

Dan Fouts*

34

Steve Largent

Dave Krieg

46

Dante Lavelli

Otto Graham*

57

James Lofton

Lynn Dickey

32

Don Maynard

Joe Namath*

42

Tommy McDonald

Sonny Jurgensen*

30

Bobby Mitchell

Sonny Jurgensen*

29

Art Monk

Mark Rypien

26

Pete Pihos

Tommy Thompson

26

Jerry Rice

Steve Young*

85

John Stallworth

Terry Bradshaw*

44

Lynn Swann

Terry Bradshaw*

49

Charley Taylor

Sonny Jurgensen*

53

Paul Warfield

Bob Griese*

29

* denotes Hall of Fame quarterback

Kudos to Sonny Jurgensen for appearing on this list 3 times.

As the above table demonstrates, punishing Harrison for playing with Manning is ridiculous. In a previous post, we looked at Pro Bowl appearances and All-Pro teams among receivers, so we are not going to repeat that here. But not only was Harrison a 3-time 1st Team All-Pro, 5 times he was a 2nd Team All-Pro. That should be enough to get the nod over Andre Reed. Reed performed better in the postseason. Reed also had the misfortune of playing in Buffalo in the winter. But Harrison’s numbers are historically great. Part of the reason a receiver (Cris Carter) was selected this year, was the voters’ awareness of the growing backlog of receivers. Adding Harrison to the trio of Brown, Carter, and Reed would have been a nightmare for the voters.

So where do we stand?

The Class of 2014 will feature Derrick Brooks, Michael Strahan, Charles Haley, and then 2 of the 3 from Aeneas Williams, Marvin Harrison, or Jerome Bettis. We don’t like to hedge our bets at the Highway to Hall so we will say Williams and Harrison are the final 2 selections.

A look at our list again:

Derrick Brooks

Michael Strahan

Charles Haley

Aeneas Williams

Marvin Harrison

As always, we reserve the right to evaluate this class over the next 11 months (particularly if Walter Jones is eligible). [Note: He is eligible and our predictions have changed]. Feel free to leave any comments. But remember, these are our predictions on what will happen, not what should happen.