When the market speaks it makes sense to listen. Our chart this week looks at the changes in the Eurodollar yield curve over the past year. Eurodollar futures are the backbone of the global banking system. They reflect the expectations for (LIBOR) funding rates for

I’m in Ottawa this week for some meetings with a few MPs. I’m working for sensible policy to help Canadians and to avoid a bleak fiscal future if hard decisions are not made soon. By way of disclosure so, I don’t get accused to being

Global bond yields are moving higher and in some cases breaking to levels not seen in several years. The moves on a multi-decade scale are hardly noticeable. Japanese yields are still extraordinarily low, but are probably most important from a psychological perspective. As central banks

It’s not a secret that gold equities have been a relative disappointment for the past several decades. The peak in relative value (the ratio of gold equities to the value of gold bullion: lower chart) peaked in the mid 1990s. The reason is relatively straight

There was a high degree of fanfare this past week on the 10-year anniversary of the Lehman moment. For me, this was the defining moment when Congress and the world realized that the financial system was at risk. It stirs up some wild emotions for

I last looked at this topic back on April 30th and I thought with all the talk about the strong US$ and some misinformation (opinion) I have heard in recent weeks, I thought I should update you with my thoughts (facts) on the subject. Recall

Last week a very influential US Bank CEO (Jamie Dimon) warned that longer-term US interest rates would be rising significantly. I think he’s out to lunch. He does see the equity bull market extending 2 to 3 more years and thinks the economy is strong

In the past few weeks Canada has taken a back seat on trade related foreign policy. Incoming Mexico president Lopez Obrador is very interested in doing a trade deal sooner than later even though he officially takes the reigns after the US November elections. The

Trump’s troops were out in full force on the Sunday talk show circuit pumping the 4% GDP number that was reported for Q2 on Friday. First, the one-time items not to be repeated like the surge in soybean purchases and the tax cut induced jump

Market breadth analysis is a key factor in determining the probability of a trend continuing. Much of what I try to do when evaluating market risk is to assess a probability of the market going up versus going down over my time horizon, which tends