LeBron James is a free agent, we know the Warriors will check in, so what really are their chances? (Not much)

All very worthwhile points. This is a new Warriors regime, they have Stephen Curry, and they love to be active in all things.

But… even though we know Joe Lacob & Co. love to swing for the fences, I just don’t see the Fightin’ GSWs as major players in this edition of the quadrennial LBJ Derby.

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The Warriors-LBJ arguments and the angles are all well within NBA norms, but IMO you just have to make too many small-percentage presumptions about LeBron and Miami’s motivations in this to make the Warriors a large possibility.

Or I could be wrong. Let’s talk it out…

* Important starting point: Not many of us thought the Warriors had a serious shot at luring Dwight Howard last summer, and yet they got a meeting and by all reports Howard was intrigued by the GSW pitch, though he ultimately chose Houston.

I never thought the Warriors could maneuver their payroll to make room for Andre Iguodala last summer, and yet–even as they were wooing Howard–they figured out a three-team sign-and-trade that got the deal done in a flash (and ate up a lot of their future maneuverability along the way, however).

So even when the proposals get as (apparently) starry-eyed as the Warriors possibly ending up with LeBron AND Kevin Love to add to Curry and Andrew Bogut… well, reasonable minds can stand back and wait for the chaos to happen.

Hey, why wouldn’t Lacob and Bob Myers at least explore the Double Home Run Scenario? They will, absolutely they will.

But I don’t see the Warriors as prime candidates to land LeBron and I really don’t see LeBron + Love to the Warriors.
For several main factors (for LeBron; the Love situation is separate, if it’s not included in a LeBron + Love dream plan):

* The Warriors aren’t under the cap at the moment and cannot do enough to get $22-24M under it by July, so they are not a threat to sign James outright.

Miami was under the cap when the Heat signed James in 2010, which forced Cleveland to do a small sign-and-trade deal.

* LeBron might be intrigued about playing alongside Stephen Curry, but he probably is even more attracted to the idea of playing with Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan in LA under Doc Rivers or Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose in Chicago under Tom Thibodeau.

Or Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade in Miami, under Erik Spoelstra, a coach he knows and likes.

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* Some of this presumes LeBron might take less than he’s eligible to earn in order to get to the Warriors (or anywhere else).

And I just don’t see that.

He already took a little less four years ago to fit with Wade and Bosh, and now James is in a pure Michael Jordan Situation–he is worth so much more than any team can pay him by NBA rules that it’s ridiculous, so why would he take ever a dollar less than the max he can get?

He’s worth $40M a year or more in a real open market. You’re asking him to be a nice guy and take $10M? That’s bad business and LeBron has gone out of his way to stress that he is a businessman that the league has taken some advantage of.

And he’s right.

* I don’t think this is necessarily a deal-killer, but James went out of his way to show support for Mark Jackson after his controversial firing by the
Warriors, so it’d seem a little odd for James to manipulate the system to go play for Steve Kerr and Joe Lacob.
He knows and has played against Rivers and Thibodeau. He knows and has liked playing under Spoelstra.

Kerr? James probably knows him, but has no idea what Kerr will be like as a coach.

* On the LeBron + Love Scenario: Umm, how are you going balance both those deals financially? By trading David Lee to BOTH Minnesota and Miami?

OK, if either Miami or Minnesota would take Iguodala’s long-term money, that would help things for the Warriors, but I don’t see either team overwhelmed by that prospect.

If Dwyane Wade opts-in with Miami for two more years, I’m not sure Miami would be cheery about adding either Lee (for two more years at about $30M) or Iguodala (for three more years)… on a team that isn’t going to contend for a title without LeBron anyway. (Since it just lost the title WITH him.)

–To try to put all those factors together…

There’s one unfriendly Warriors commonality from the Dwight Chase last year: Even if James is as interested in the Warriors as Howard seemed to be, just same as with Howard, the Warriors cannot sign James outright, which significantly complicates the situation.

From what I heard, all things being equal, Howard liked the Warriors as much as he liked Houston, but he didn’t like that the Warriors would’ve had to give up significant pieces in order to entice the Lakers to do a sign-and-trade.

(Probably Andrew Bogut + Harrison Barnes or Klay Thompson or both.)

Howard wanted to join the Warriors at full strength, not minus several good players. Same thing happened with Kevin Garnett in 2007.

Houston had the cap space to sign him outright and therefore added Howard to their fixed roster–James Harden, Chandler Parsons, Jeremy Lin, etc.–without having to sacrifice any talent.

That was huge for Dwight. It’d be huge for any star free agent.

–This time around, with an even more spectacular free agent prize, the Warriors find themselves without the cap space to sign James outright.

So, even if the Warriors could convince Miami to get involved in sign-and-trade discussions, would LeBron be pleased with what it’d take to get the Heat to accept the deal?

(Remember, the last time he moved he went to a team that didn’t have to give up anything to add him.)

Any LeBron deal would have to start with either David Lee or Iguodala going to Miami for salary balance, and if Miami is keeping Chris Bosh (opt-out decision TBA), there would be zero reason for them to want Lee or probably even Iguodala.

It would also have to include many other valuable players to entice Miami, and that would presumably have to start with Thompson and you can keep on naming all good GSW players except Curry, because Miami would want more than just Lee/Iguodala + Thompson…
Why could Miami theoretically demand all that? Because the Warriors almost certainly wouldn’t be James’ top option. (Important separation point: It sounds like the Warriors are either Love’s first or second option. That’s what gives them more traction in a possible Love deal.)

So yes, James could threaten to sign with another team outright (say, Cleveland or the Lakers) unless Miami signs-and-trades him to a team that is not under the cap…

But if that happens, it probably wouldn’t be with the intent to get him to the Warriors.

It would be the Clippers, most likely. And the Clippers have Blake Griffin to use in such a proposal–a young star forward Miami can theoretically build around.
The Warriors have Thompson, who has a lot of appeal, but he’s not Griffin. And they’re not the Clippers.

So on a lot of different levels, the Warriors trail many different teams at the starting line.

* Again, this doesn’t mean the Warriors can’t get an audience.

They have Curry. That’s a good start.

They have Joe Lacob, Peter Guber, the draw of the Bay Area/Silicon Valley/the new San Francisco arena.

And they have Jerry West. Which is an interesting one, because James admires old-school NBA legends… hey, he signed with one in Miami last time, that’d be Pat Riley, who coached under West in LA, remains a good friend–and also is a true rival.

What you fail to address is that if Lebron chooses to go to the Warriors, Miami will settle for something rather than nothing. Even Dan Gilbert, accepted to a sign and trade when Lebron left. Why wouldn’t the Heat want Iggy? They would have a huge hole in the small forward position, and I bet if Lebron left, and Iggy also happened to be a free agent this summer, the Heat would try to sign him. In a sign and trade scenario, the Heat have no leverage. They would just take what they can get at that point.

Klay and Lee for Love and
Iggy and Barnes for Lebron work via ESPN trade machine.

You’re right in saying that the chances all of this happening is very small and probably won’t happen, but a fan can dream.

blahblahblacksheep

iggy and barnes is a laughable offer for james. maybe iggy and barnes and 3 first round draft picks we don’t have.

Jo Rames

almost anything is laughable for james. But like I said, the Heat have no leverage. If the Heat do a sign and trade, they are going to get the worse end of the trade no matter what. Look up what the Cavs got in return for the James trade. Mainly picks. Look at where the Cavs are in the standings after James left. Picks don’t equal success.

Tony

Exactly what I was thinking.

Twinkie defense

Heat will probably reload with LeBron. But if he went I imagine Miami would use their cap room, no state sales tax, beaches to lure in the next FA superstar.

leftcoast

All this Lebron talk when Tebow’s out there. Astonishing.

Tim84687

There is no reason they would have to do a sign and trade for Lebron. They just showed that last year with Igoudala. I know officially Igoudala was a sign and trade, but the purpose of that was just so they could keep the midlevel exception, for all intents and purposes, it was a straight up signing. This year it would be even easier to clear the space than it was last year. Biedrins and Jefferson were completely washed up dead money and they had to give great incentive to get rid of them.
To free up enough money for Lebron to sign they would just need to trade Lee and Igoudala to teams with cap space and take no money back. The destination I see for Lee would be Orlando. They have pretty much all rookies and are way under the salary floor and have no intention of chasing anybody in this year’s free agency class. They want a leader type of veteran to help the young players along for a couple years. Warriors could easily trade Lee for some future protected Draft pick(s).
Igoudala didn’t have a great year, but he was all defense first team and is an all around very good player. Plus his contract is structured pretty well, set to decline each season. Plenty of teams would be interested. The best candidate I see would be Charlotte. They want to compete now and have plenty of money under the cap.
The Warriors would probably also want/need to unload Speights as well, he only has one year on his deal then a team option, I don’t see any issue with throwing him in with Lee or Igoudala as a package to either of the above mentioned teams. Overall, this would give the Warriors about $22 million to offer Lebron if he wanted to come to Oakland.
PS. I don’t think this will happen, but I just wanted to put it out there, because I think TK gets a little tunnel vision sometimes and can’t see outside the box

Dirk Suave

If the dubs can coax the 13th pick out of the love deal? Then Iggy and Barnes plus the 13th might be better than nothing for Miami.

DJ Noha

If the Heat’s only option is a sign & trade, they are going to strongly favor a trade to the West. That’s a good outcome for them, compared to him landing elsewhere in the East.

I feel like this whole scenario hinges on a single phone call, when LeBron can talk to Jerry West…

flaninerfan

Minus LBJ Miami could still contend in the pathetic East. Add Lee and Iggy or Barnes and they still may be the front runners. Who do they have to beat? IND is a mess, BKN is old and CHI has a superstar who cannot stay healthy.

flaninerfan

If LBJ’s motivation is to cement himself as one of the greats, if not the greatest, GSW makes a lot of sense. A franchise that has not won it all in 39 years. The MUCH tougher conference versus a virtual bye into the playoffs. A rabid fan base versus the beach crowd. Plus a young core that has not reached its prime.

Tito Puente

dear tim,

your entire article is predicated on the notion that LeBron won’t take less money — of course he will, he already has, he’s making $70 million a year off the court and he just got embarassed in the Finals — LeBron is absolutely not going to look for a max deal…

LeBron is notoriously frugal (aka cheap), and a shrewd investor — he took pct points from Beats by Dre instead of cash, and just a couple weeks ago he recouped $34 million just on that one small deal that should’ve been less than a mill for being smart — look it up..

he’s not stupid like Kobe, he is going to be worth over $500 million even if he never earns another cent of salary… he knows the only thing his career will be judged on is rings, and any team needs cap space to get great role players…

people have already said the Melo is not taking a discount but LeBron is interested in winning, period… you mentioned all those things but you failed to mention how much LeBron has professed his admiration for the Spurs, where Kerr has deep ties, and where all their major stars take major pay cuts..

LeBron is a team player, period.. but one thing people tend to overlook is he’s not a small forward, that’s just a title… LeBron is a point guard, and he’s so unselfish you want the ball in his hands you don’t want him playing with ball dominating points who can’t shoot 3′s…

(he now understands how bad that is for his game after playing with a ball dominating 2 guard who can’t shoot in Wade)

and let’s look at the other “more desirable” options you mentioned… Derrick Rose is a ball dominating explosive point guard coming off two major injuries who can’t shoot, Noah can shoot out to 15 ft — LeBron needs shooters to space the floor…

(can Wade shoot, no, can Chris Paul shoot 3′s, no, can Noah shoot, no, can Deandre Jordan shoot, no, CAN mr injury Derrick Rose shoot 3′s, no…. not a single player you named can shoot — LEBRON NEEDS TO BE SURROUNDED BY SHOOTERS)

Dwyane Wade is dead, he’s already said he’s not taking a pay cut, he can’t shoot and he dribbles too much — LeBron has seen how far the Heat have fallen, people don’t even guard Wade’s jumper when he has the ball..

the Clippers seem like an ideal spot with so many athletes, shooters and defenders, but i think you’ll find Chris Paul dominates the basketball more than any other point guard in the league, and despite last year’s playoffs he’s a terrible 3pt shooter – so he can’t space the floor for Bron… a team with LeBron and Chris Paul would waste both of their abilities to pass the ball…

the thing with Steph Curry is that he’s equally lethal with or without the ball in his hands… simply by being on the floor with LeBron he would give him so much more space than he’s had ever in the NBA — it’s true..

and Kevin Love would only mean that you’d have to single cover LeBron or leave Steph Curry or Kevin Love wide open…

so let’s see this from LeBron’s perspective… the Warrios are a team with no real legacy, none of these players have won before, and their talents all compliment his talents — LeBron coming to the Warriors is almost like going back to Cleveland, a little engine that could… LeBron going to LA is just vulgar in most fan’s eyes…

besides, if your LeBron, signing with the Warriors (and K Love) would be the only team in the NBA that could guarantee LeBron single coverage with the ball in his hands..

single coverage on LeBron, $500 million in the bank — no, i’m sure he thinks that’s a terrible idea..