Romney catches Obama in Quinnipiac swing-state polls

posted at 10:01 am on May 3, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Ah, it’s good to be in full general-campaign mode, isn’t it? Instead of having to play three-dimensional chess with polling numbers, with the head-to-head figures having to be calculated through the prism of a contested primary on one side, we’re now entering into the clarity phase of polling. Mitt Romney has just begun to unite Republicans behind him, while Barack Obama has had an uncontested primary season, so the advantage still goes to Obama in polling — and that’s what has to be worrying Team Obama with the Quinnipiac polls from three swing states:

Riding the voter perception that he is as good as or better than President Barack Obama at fixing the economy, Republican challenger Mitt Romney catches up with the president in Florida and Ohio, two critical swing states, while the president opens an 8-point lead in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

This compares to the results of a March 28 Swing State Poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing President Obama ahead of Gov. Romney 49 – 42 percent in Florida, 47 – 41 percent in Ohio and 45 – 42 percent in Pennsylvania. …

Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states – no one has won the White House since 1960 without carrying at least two of them – shows:

Florida: Romney with 44 percent to Obama’s 43 percent, too close to call;

Ohio: Obama with 44 percent to Romney’s 42 percent, too close to call;

Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 47 – 39 percent.

What is the one constant in each of these polls? Obama the incumbent can’t get to 50% in any of these states. In Florida and Ohio, Obama can’t even get to 45%. Pennsylvania has a double-digit Democratic advantage in party registration and Obama can’t get to a majority. Those are not re-elect numbers in any of these three states.

Losing Florida and Ohio would be a big problem for Obama. Losing Pennsylvania would be a disaster. Obama is still a long way from losing the state, but it’s exactly the kind of blue-collar, Rust Belt, working-class Catholic state that he will have problems holding. Democrats who lose Pennsylvania in presidential elections are called authors by January, and the Democrats know this well. They will have to shift considerable amounts of time and money to protect Obama in the Keystone State that could have gone elsewhere … like, say, Florida and Ohio, which are critical states for Republicans. And if Obama is having these kinds of problems in Pennsylvania, he’ll lose Indiana and could possibly lose Wisconsin and Virginia as well.

National Journal notes that the rise in Romney’s strength comes from a perception of economic stagnation that’s not likely to change in the next few months:

Romney’s rise in two of the three critical states is fueled by voters’ perceptions of the economy. Voters in Florida and Ohio think the former Massachusetts governor would do a better job with the economy, while Pennsylvania voters are split evenly on the question. And only a slight majority of voters in each state thinks the economy is beginning to recover.

The demographic composition is another problem. The D/R/I in Florida is 31/28/37, in Ohio 34/26/34, and in Pennsylvania 36/29/30. Only Pennsylvania’s looks remotely predictive. The CNN exit polls in 2008 — a banner year for Obama — put Florida at 37/34/29, Ohio at 39/31/30, and Pennsylvania at 44/37/18. In 2010, Florida was even-up at 36/36/28, while Ohio was 36/37/28 and Pennsylvania at 40/37/23. Republicans are consistently underweighted in these Q-polls. Obama is probably in even more trouble than the numbers above indicate.

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> Mitt Romney has just begun to unite Republicans behind him,
> while Barack Obama has had an uncontested primary season,
> so the advantage still goes to Obama in polling

If Morrissey’s theory were true, we should expect to see the incumbent (nearly-) always faring better in the horserace polls six months out than in the actual elections. This does not seem to have been the case in 2004 or 1996, however.

Should the market decide Romney will win, all the pent-up money will start coming out of hiding. The markets will boom. Gold will fall fast. Lame-duck 0bama will insist that his policies were working, when, in actuality, it will be the prospect of his leaving that gooses the markets.

Conversely, should Romney flounder, I think the market will begin to crater at the pre-election moment of realization. Gold will soar. 0bama will blame it on Bush.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Well . . . what specific policy is Obama going to brag about if the market booms? I don’t see him passing anything between now and the election. I guess he could say the stimulus is finally kicking in after 3 1/2 years.

I really think most Americans vote on issues like jobs, gas prices, and declining wages rather than the market.

I am from PA and the once proud working state is not that anymore. Calling PA a blue collar rustbelt work-state is about as far from the truth as you can get.

PA is now a total dependency state, everyone I know from my hometown is all about voting for the guy who will give them the most government aid/money. There is no work ethic and no pride left in PA, the whole state lives for handouts.

All those who want work left like I did, is saddens me but we just need to write PA off, those left have no pride and live for the next piece of government cheese.

Skwor on May 3, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Wow :( That is depressing. Obama was very weak here in 2008. Remember – he referred to the white working class voters in PA as “bitter, clinging to their guns, religion” etc. In the general, he needed Hillary to campaign all over the state for him.

I don’t know. I just have a gut feeling that Romney can be stronger here than any recent Republican candidate. Team Bambi has pretty much written off the white working class vote, and the Reagan Democrats, so if Romney can do well in the suburbs he’s really got a chance.

Ed, assuming that Quinnipiac is unbiased or is trying to remain objective, why do the polls appear to skew the demographic numbers? Is there any basis to do this?

RedSoxNation on May 3, 2012 at 12:26 PM

.
Expected turnout.
But using 2008 general numbers- NOT the anti-Maobama numbers of the 2010 midterms.

Angryed probably didn’t read the very end of the post- but any Polling results that disregard the 2010 midterm mojo is going to be a worse case scenario for Super Mitt. The numbers will get better from there.

Anyone else hear about that poll? If Romney is losing there, he’s going to get slaughtered overall.

gumbyandpokey on May 3, 2012 at 10:18 AM

That was a poll from yesterday, and the sample was D+13, which is way above what the Dems turned out in 2008. My prediction: the turnout in November is D+2 and Romney cruises to a 7-pt win here. Anybody want to wager? Angryed?

That’s what we heard consistently about Harry Reid, too, in 2010 — and he won reelection by a comfortable margin (I think it was something like 52-47). The gov and senate victories in PA in 2010 were by very narrow margins in a great GOP year, so I am very skeptical about any prospects to take PA this time.

Don’t forget that unseating an incumbent is incredibly difficult, and that Obama’s personality favorability numbers are still very high. That likability had a large part to play in the re-election of Bush 43, and can have the same effect here.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 10:57 AM

This Obambi likability issue is really a mystery. Something about those numbers just isn’t right. I suppose someone who watches American Idol and the Kardashians and doesn’t follow politics at all might see Obama as someone with a big smile and a nice family. Plus, he does “cool” things, like slow-jamming the news.

But I think there might be something more going on with those numbers. Perhaps voters are willing to say they don’t like his policies, but are hesitant to give him thumbs down on personal favorability – for fear of being thought of as racist. Who knows. Obama is going to be increasingly negative in this campaign as time goes on, and as more start paying attention, I think those favorability numbers will come down.

Romney will take two of the three. That’s my prediction, based on nothing but gut.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:04 AM

..cane, were you old enough to vote for Reagan? If so, do you remember that “disconnected feeling”? You know, thinking Carter was going to win but bound and determined to get to the polls and vote for RR to throw that silly-asssed drooling peanut farmer out on his butt.

I got this guy feeling as well: the popularity polls notwithstanding, Obama’s going down big time. Bradley effect? (I can hear the ctrl-c/ctrl-v keystrokes all over HA-land as I post this.)

..and the money question would be, “why would these — smacking of even more desperation — gain any more traction than the pet-atop-the-car, war on women, Ann Romney eating bon bons while having her nails done, and would Romney have pulled the plug on the towel-head?”

The War Planner on May 3, 2012 at 12:10 PM

Laurence “Hello Larry” O’Donnell has his Pampers in a bunch over Ann Romney’s $990 shirt!

..cane, were you old enough to vote for Reagan? If so, do you remember that “disconnected feeling”? You know, thinking Carter was going to win but bound and determined to get to the polls and vote for RR to throw that silly-asssed drooling peanut farmer out on his butt.

The War Planner on May 3, 2012 at 1:13 PM

I was in the Navy when Reagan was first elected. I voted absentee, and I recall we were at sea when it was announced that Reagan had won. Everybody on the ship cheered. :)

..cane, were you old enough to vote for Reagan? If so, do you remember that “disconnected feeling”? You know, thinking Carter was going to win but bound and determined to get to the polls and vote for RR to throw that silly-asssed drooling peanut farmer out on his butt.

I got this guy feeling as well: the popularity polls notwithstanding, Obama’s going down big time. Bradley effect? (I can hear the ctrl-c/ctrl-v keystrokes all over HA-land as I post this.)

The War Planner on May 3, 2012 at 1:13 PM

I wasn’t old enough to vote, but was very politically aware for my age. I took abuse at a summer camp in Canada.. other kids and counselors wanted my opinion… when I said Reagan, they expressed shock and disbelief, saying “how could America elect an actor?”

We have one now, it seems ;-)

Yes, I remember the feeling well – the polls showed Carter, but the mood in the country said that he was going down.

He went down hard, and I remember how happy my dad was on election night (he had campaigned for Goldwater in ’64)

He said “now this country can get back on the right track, now that it came to its senses.”

Obama also wins if he loses FL and OH and wins PA, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire.

libfreeordie on May 3, 2012 at 12:03 PM

He won’t win NH. The state flipped red in the last election. So much so that Lynch decided not to go for another term. Any poll showing Obama doing well in NH is horse manure. He’s the principal reason the state flipped.

Since we’re in full campaign mode, I’d like to see the Obama “smart” myth fully destroyed. If Romney releases his college, law school and business school transcripts whenever he releases his tax returns that’ll both dilute the coverage his returns get and also refocus public attention on Obama’s carefully hidden transcripts. Believe it or not, some people (particularly lefties) really care about that sort of crap and revealing Obama for the lazy sod he so obviously was will help underline the already strong narrative that he still is lazy as hell.

MTF on May 3, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Excellent idea. Personally, I think Bambi is hiding more on those transcripts than just lousy grades.

Personally, I think Bambi is hiding more on those transcripts than just lousy grades.

TarheelBen on May 3, 2012 at 1:26 PM

I don’t think it’s the grades. He probably got an affirmative-action “A” for showing up and smiling and using that deep voice in class (remember how some classmates said how they’d roll their eyes when 0bama started preaching in class). I think that:

1. His course selection will prove to be shockingly anti-American and anti-capitalist.

2. They will show that he received course credit for rabble-rousing acitivities.

3. His attendance dates and locations won’t match up to his printed claims in “his” books.

These numbers don’t really mean anything to anybody. It’s like watching a game and enjoying the half time if one’s team is ahead. It isn’t over until the fat lady sings and in this case most middle class Americans are still talking to neighbors and new friends and changing or making up their minds and those thoughts are secret. Ron Paul and his electorate caper is still mostly unknown and not understood- also still in a media blackout but not dark to a lot of the voters who are also still working hard. Yes there are a lot of those on the dole, but a lot of them are on it for the first time and they are holding the Preezie accountable. We are also finding that most of the college crowd are not members of the dumb OWS and busy thinking about what was promised and what was delivered. There is an overwhelming fear that our America has changed for the worse quickly that also may play a BIG factor when one is all alone in the voting booth. Too many factors for me to do much half time cheering. The fat lady who sings may sing country,

When polls show Romney losing, it’s too early for polls, polls are biased, polls are run by Democrats.

When polls show Romney winning, polls are a beautiful thing.

You dudes crack me up.

angryed on May 3, 2012 at 10:13 AM

You miss the point. Head-to-head poll spreads actually don’t mean much at this point, but job approval numbers do–and they’re indicated by Obama’s share of the vote. In none of these three essential states do his numbers approach anywhere near 50%. These polls are terrible news for Obama since the undecideds will break for the challenger as they always do. What can he do to pull up his numbers? –Nothing. The public is on to him at this point. It knows he’s making a mess, that things are not going well. Young people are pulling away. Jews are disenchanted. Hispanics are resentful. Catholics are offended. There’s no way his demographic turnout will be a repeat of 2008.

Yes, we have to take heart. For all his flaws, Romney is an immensely more articulate, attractive and competent candidate than McCain. Given that, and the economy, even with the ACORN effect, I think the election’s his to lose.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 11:08 AM

I agree.

One thing I’ve noticed – Romney is really good at appearing positive and above the fray in his own speeches – while his surrogates are busy smearing and attacking the hell out of you. On the other hand, Obambi seems to be coming across as more and more negative, and desperate. This will eventually drive his personal favorability numbers down.

When I was supporting another candidate during the primary, I remember thinking that Romney is a “snake.” But perhaps that’s what we’re going to need to out-slither Obama.

Obama also wins if he loses FL and OH and wins PA, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire.

libfreeordie on May 3, 2012 at 12:03 PM

The Purple poll of swing states, a bipartisan poll, has Obama’s job approval in CO at a mere 43%. No way he’ll take CO. Forget about the PPP polls that show him way up–they’re bogus. It’s a Democratic poll outfit that admits it doesn’t weight for party ID so of course it gets the results it wants. CO will go for Romney.

There is no way that PBHO will carry our state this time around. Bev Perdue is so gawdawful she isn’t even running for reelection. The Dem party is in complete shambles here and are likely to have a pathetic turnout. Our employment is among the nation’s worst. The Donkeys could not have chosen a worse place to hold their convention.

I don’t think it’s the grades. He probably got an affirmative-action “A” for showing up and smiling and using that deep voice in class (remember how some classmates said how they’d roll their eyes when 0bama started preaching in class).

Romney should release his transcripts and make a big deal out of it. He could challenge Obama to release his. If Obama keeps his stuff sealed, people are going to wonder why.

When I was supporting another candidate during the primary, I remember thinking that Romney is a “snake.” But perhaps that’s what we’re going to need to out-slither Obama.

TarheelBen on May 3, 2012 at 1:49 PM

I’ve always taken this approach. We need somebody who knows how to play rough. Actually Romney is not that bad a guy–but his team is ruthless. In any case, he’s got the fire in the belly nobody else had–not Rudy, not McCain, not Perry, not Barbour, not Pawlenty, not Daniels, not Sarah. None of the top tier candidates wanted it enough. Santorum and Gingrich had the fire–but not the organization skills and the money necessary. Romney is formidable–and Obama knows it. Hence the flop-sweating presidential panic, the careening from dog wars to the war on women to Afghanistan. He’s flailing and unfocused and his numbers aren’t moving.

There is no way that PBHO will carry our state this time around. Bev Perdue is so gawdawful she isn’t even running for reelection. The Dem party is in complete shambles here and are likely to have a pathetic turnout. Our employment is among the nation’s worst. The Donkeys could not have chosen a worse place to hold their convention.

MJBrutus on May 3, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Yep, I agree. And also consider that, in a huge Democrat year, Zero only won NC by like 14K votes.

But I think there might be something more going on with those numbers. Perhaps voters are willing to say they don’t like his policies, but are hesitant to give him thumbs down on personal favorability – for fear of being thought of as racist.

I am from PA and the once proud working state is not that anymore. Calling PA a blue collar rustbelt work-state is about as far from the truth as you can get.

PA is now a total dependency state, everyone I know from my hometown is all about voting for the guy who will give them the most government aid/money. There is no work ethic and no pride left in PA, the whole state lives for handouts.

All those who want work left like I did, is saddens me but we just need to write PA off, those left have no pride and live for the next piece of government cheese.

Skwor on May 3, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Disagree. I’m from PA and I’m convinced this time around the state will go for the GOP candidate. Lots of white Catholic Democrats who resent him. Lots of upscale voters in the swing districts of the Philadelphia suburbs who like Romney. Lots of resentment towards Obama’s EPA coal industry put-down. Lots of fear over federal regulatory take over of natural gas fracking. Plenty of disenchantment with Obama.

The criticism here that the weighted groups do not reflect previous party demographic breakdown, is the problem for all the polls.

But in addition, having looked at the survey, it is registered voters, not Likely Voters.

Why won’t they do likely voters?

These groups say in one of the surveys 22% would like to hear more about Romney. That is not an Obama sure vote then, is it??? That only explains 13% of the undecided. I could conclude then that 13% would like to hear more about Romney, maybe, and if they voted for him the spread would be 57-43.

My prediction is that previous Obama voters, will avert their eyes and stay away from the polls on election day, head in the sand, whatever cliche you want, avert their eyes, a lot of people feel bad about how Obama is not interested in the economy, and didn’t save it in time for people to keep their homes.

Hence the flop-sweating presidential panic, the careening from dog wars to the war on women to Afghanistan. He’s flailing and unfocused and his numbers aren’t moving.

writeblock on May 3, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Obama is a terrible leader, and I think people are starting to notice it. I’m a career Navy man and I’ve attended several leadership schools. I’ve known Third Class Petty Officers who had more leadership ability than Obama.

I think Obama’s running around, beating his chest, and taking all the credit for killing bin Laden turned a lot of people off. An effective leader would have never used “I” or “me” when talking about that mission. But would always praise the men who planned it, carried it out, and took the risk.

Obama, by constantly taking all the credit, comes across as insecure and immature.

A good example of effective leadership can be seen by watching film of Dwight Eisenhower before and after the D-Day invasion. Prior to launching it, he wrote a letter taking full responsibility in the event the mission failed. And after it was a success, you never heard him say “I” or “me” in speaking about it. It was all about those men who hit the beaches that eventful day.

There will be more than 1000 poll results announced between now and the election (Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls account for over 360 by themselves). It makes no sense to let our hopes rise and crash with each one.

And it’s a lazy way to blog. It’s a ready-made post every day: this or that poll, throw in a little half-baked analysis and a link or two to other idiots’ half-baked analysis, and there is one less creative piece of writing and research to be done.

I understand that AP was doing one on every single poll to give the illusion he was working while he was in fact haunting the bathhouses looking for love, but what’s your excuse?

Then again you have so many seniors down there so worried about their Medicare. John Stossel wrote in his new book (No They Can’t: Why Gov’t Fails and Individuals Succeed)about his discussions with many seniors in Fla. They were angry and said they deserved what they had put it. He then pointed out to them that most seniors get three times as many benefits as to what they paid in. Only then did they realize that yes, we do need some serious reform.

Obama also wins if he loses FL and OH and wins PA, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire.

libfreeordie on May 3, 2012 at 12:03 PM

When we start having all the polls poll likely voters, I think Iowa polling will swing to Romney. I agree that NH and CO as well as PA probably go to Obama; but if Romney can carry FL and OH, he think he will also get VA and win the election.

Take away the Bradley effect and media sycophants and it is a Romney landslide…midterm redux coming up folks in 6 mos…

hillsoftx on May 3, 2012 at 10:17 AM

And the PUMAs will be riding to the resecue too!!!!! I mean, if we’re going to go 2008, let’s go ALL out, folks!
<When polls show Romney losing, it’s too early for polls, polls are biased, polls are run by Democrats.

When polls show Romney winning, polls are a beautiful thing.

You dudes crack me up.

angryed on May 3, 2012 at 10:13 AMMe too. Allahpundit will probably highlight some poll tonight that says the opposite, and then the Romney squad here will go into their “Why is that eeyore still working here???? Nothing NOTHING but anti-Romney crap here 24/7!!!!! This place suuuuuure has gone downhill since Michelle left blahblahblah”

When polls show Romney losing, it’s too early for polls, polls are biased, polls are run by Democrats.

When polls show Romney winning, polls are a beautiful thing.

You dudes crack me up.

angryed on May 3, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Me too. Allahpundit will probably highlight some poll tonight that says the opposite, and then the Romney squad here will go into their “Why is that eeyore still working here???? Nothing NOTHING but anti-Romney crap here 24/7!!!!! This place suuuuuure has gone downhill since Michelle left blahblahblah”

Obama can lose OH and FL and still win if he takes NV, NM, CO, IA, VA which it very much looks like he will.

libfreeordie on May 3, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Well, if Bambi takes VA, that makes it hard for Romney. You’ve already given him OH and FL. He would also need IN, NC, NH and then PA. With all that, Romney still wins. But I really don’t think Bambi will win VA, when all is said and done – and Romney might surprise you in NV as well.

Your point is well made. I tend to look at trends more than single data points. I also try to relate those trends to their underlying causes. I fully expected Mitt’s numbers to improve once his GOP competition were dispensed with. They were whack jobs and he suffered just by being grouped in with them, let alone by their ugly, rhetorical extremes.

I said it, back when he was trailing in most polls, with the occasional data point from Rassmussen (who typically used larger samples and LVs rather than RVs) that he was in great shape. That his numbers were competitive despite his being at his low point and the sitting CinC at his tallest stature. The data so far looks to confirm that indeed, with Santo, Newt and the other radioactive clowns little more than a bad memory, he is catching PBHO already!

But if Palin was the candidate and was the person who would dominate the website stories (which would happen as it is now with Romney), you would be a happy camper. Get over it.

Voter from WA State on May 4, 2012 at 1:36 AM

Are you kidding? We had 3 years’ worth of nothing but relentlessly bad news for Sarah Palin, followed by the usual ‘bot peanut gallery in thew comments. The ‘bots can’t handle a month’s worth of same about their idol. And you’d be doing pretty much the same now if Palin had been the nominee. Get over it.