Solution for Identifying and Preventing Future Security Threats

The last decade has clearly demonstrated that the nature of threats to international security has changed significantly. Structural challenges, such as terrorism, cyber-attacks and nuclear prolifera ...

The last decade has clearly demonstrated that the nature of threats to international security has changed significantly. Structural challenges, such as terrorism, cyber-attacks and nuclear proliferation, have created an entirely new security environment. National states’ monopoly on using force is eroding, state boundaries have lost much of their importance and private actors have become increasingly powerful in international security.

Support fragile states by putting a premium on legitimacy and work through international and regional organizations. Include perpetrators and their supporters as a part of the solution.

One important characteristic of the revolts across the Middle East and North Africa is the rejection of the Al Qaeda brand of intolerant medievalism. But dealing with nonstate aggressors early in the conflict cycle remains both vital and complex.

Lessons from the troubled occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq and the earlier experience in the Balkans make clear the central importance of promoting political reconciliation as early as possible. Reconciliation may not be possible at the extremes, but the many who occupy the no-man’s land between the state and the antistate must be accommodated.

This is particularly important in weak states, such as the new Libya, and can only be achieved via legitimate regional and international institutions. Mediation is critical but so is rapid humanitarian assistance, the early delivery of improved stability and the preservation of the rule of law, administered in a nondiscriminatory manner.

This must be civilian-led by people who are seen to be legitimate across communities. That is difficult for outsiders. While early concepts of stabilization, reconstruction and development rather complacently suggested a sequential process, lessons from weak and failed states indicate the need to pursue them in parallel. Only this will remove the sense of grievance that terrorists exploit.

Political legitimacy at the local, national and international levels is vital in dealing with transnational terrorism. Experience in the Balkans, Afghanistan and Iraq makes clear that this can only come from coordinated action through international and regional institutions under a UN mandate. But as international institutions have lacked both the structure and resources to address the challenge, transnational coalitions have been employed, and operated at an appreciable disadvantage.

Overcome the segmentation of threat response capabilities in favor of a systemic approach that appreciates the full spectrum of threats and improves system resilience. In addition, recognize the ecosy ...

Overcome the segmentation of threat response capabilities in favor of a systemic approach that appreciates the full spectrum of threats and improves system resilience. In addition, recognize the ecosystemic dimensions of threats to human security.