Wednesday, September 30, 2009

From Gas Princess to Queen of Populism to Dictatress. She's coming home!

At a recent Shuster Live studio poll, 53% of respondents viewed a Tymoshenko presidency as dictatorship and 47% as order (or 64%-to-36% in the 18-25 audience). Instead of drawing the line between order and dictatorship, Tymoshenko blurred the line.

PM Yulia Tymoshenko: Savik, what makes you think that after all the chaos that grips politics, after all this disorder, irresponsibility — this whole, if you’ll excuse my non-parliamentary language, barking — people don’t want dictatorship? I already do want the country to have order, regimentation, and perhaps a sufficiently strong system of government, and not what we have today. [applause]Savik Shuster, host: This…this here…wait, I have a little...I have...I have...I have...I too have...

Tymoshenko: And you absolutely have no idea: whether people want dictatorship or not — because they’re tired of it.MP Iryna Akimova (PRU) [chimes in]: You saw it! Yulia Volodymyrivna wants dictatorship in our mass media!

Shuster: No, people probably…Akimova: And she makes it happen, Savik. Or does she?

Shuster: I can’t hear you, sorry.Akimova: You didn’t hear me? Yulia Volodymyrivna does want dictatorship. She just said it.

Shuster: I...Akimova: And unfortunately, she wants it in the mass media.

Shuster: Excuse me, Iryna, I’m having a strict commercial break here, and after that Mykola Azarov will take the microphone.Akimova [continues]: Because she doesn’t allow commentary to the interesting footage that we’ve seen on the screen. It’s called dictatorship, Savik. [show closes for commercial break]

Literally, стрункість means slimness. In the above context, however, it sounds like a derivative of “Струнко!” (stroon-koh), which roughly equals “Parade rest!” In Russian, they say “Смирно!”(smeer-noh). The Russian expression по стойке смирно refers to regimentation. Tymoshenko’s recent mega-Freudian slip, “I want, on behalf of Russia...sorry, on behalf of Ukraine” carries the point further.

If Tymoshenko wins, will we have “one law for all” or “one lady above all laws?” The same goes for the other lady: Yanukovych.

Monday, September 28, 2009

Serhiy Tihipko. A former banker. One of Ukraine’s richest men. Yanukovych’s 2004 campaign manager, who jumped ship once it became apparent that his boss had crashed and burned in the Orange Revolution.

Serhiy Tihipko: We deserve a life in a rich country. We have fertile farmlands, a robust industry, an educated and hardworking people. What is our problem? Irresponsible government. Lack of professionalism and will. We must leave a rich country to our kids and grandkids. Ukraine needs will and responsibility. Ukraine needs a strong and professional government. Ukraine has to be strong!

A dead ringer for Kevin Spacey, isn’t he? Only a bit more serious. Or less.

Friday, September 25, 2009

All work and no play makes Pinchuk a dull boy. Why not hold a little carnival amid the big crisis?

YES is an international network established to promote the development of a just, free and prosperous Ukraine, to open the country to the rest of the world and to support Ukraine’s membership to the European Union.

Six annual YES meetings. Any results?

Has Ukraine improved its standing on world economic indexes? NO. Has the EU eased its Schengen Curtain? NO. Have the oligarchs invested a lot of money in energy-efficient technology? NO.Have they started paying more and caring more about workplace safety? NO. Have they separated business from government? NO.

Remember: From the Soviet point of view, Finland started the Winter War; from the Nazi point of view, Poland started WW II.

Below are two fact-meets-fantasy scenarios outlined in a Russian television program, in which Ukraine gets repeatedly called “republic”— Soviet-style. (Since independence, Ukraine has no republic in its official name.)

Scenario 1Anti-Russian western Ukrainian troops surge into Crimea like Nazis to terrorize the local Russian population. Kyiv cracks down on the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, cutting off communications. Moscow sends in reinforcements from the neighboring Russian region of Kuban. Kyiv sends in reinforcements from neighboring Ukrainian oblasts.

Russia leads in troops and warships; Ukraine leads in air defense: more than 100 SAM systems + more than 200 interceptor aircraft (“It’s a lot for the not-so-large territory of the republic.”)

Romania, Poland and Hungary step in “to support Yushchenko.” A NATO task force (10 warships) based in Poti and Batumi prepares to engage the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Turkey foments Crimean Tatar irredentism. (Kyiv supports Crimean Tatars in land conflicts and squatting against the Russian population of Crimea.)

Bottom LineIf Russia loses, Crimea will follow in Kosovo's footsteps, with the establishment of a pro-Ukrainian puppet regime supported by U.S. Navy bases. Turkey will like it. Projected war outbreak: Early 2010 (“to retain power, Viktor Yushchenko may opt for such provocations”).

Scenario 2“Another scenario of developments is connected with another former Soviet republic: Georgia. If military conflict flares up on its territory again, it will mark the beginning of a war between Russia and Ukraine.”

Bottom LineIf Ukraine loses, the country will fall apart. Russia will claim Crimea, along with the right to keep its Black Sea Fleet after the rental agreement expires in 2017. (The victory will be offset by international isolation and domestic crisis).

If Russia loses, the Russian Black Sea Fleet will leave Sevastopol and there will be no more Russian influence in Crimea.

The news anchor's caveat: Make no mistake, according to international norms, Crimea is an integral part of Ukraine and I’m convinced that Russia will never fight for this territory. But Ukrainian politics of the last few years suggests that there are still some who are eager to provoke a conflict in the hope of the international community’s intervention, forgetful of the fact that managed conflicts are always fraught with heavy bloodshed. And there are always those willing to do the fighting. In fact, some Ukrainians, for years, have been fighting Russia, literally, and they’re not shy about it.

What about the mustached blessing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact? Of course, Ukraine gained in territory — populated mainly by Ukrainians — and lost 7,000,000 lives. Fair enough by the Kremlin's standards, right?

Now, why in the world would Yushchenko want to start a war with Russia? To give Russia the pretext for partitioning Ukraine?

Would Obama drop the reset button and rush to Ukraine’s defense should Russia start the war — much less should Ukraine start the war?

Sunday, September 20, 2009

In Ukrainian, krytykuvaty means to criticize; kredytuvaty means to lend. In Tymoshenkian, the two words can be hilariously confusing — and food for Freudian slip lovers.

PM Yulia Tymoshenko: No matter how much they criticize my government and me personally — well, maybe they don’t know what to кредитувати...критикувати [quickly corrects herself] me for — so they criticize me for two things (thank God, there's nothing else to criticize me for): for my dresses and for the Ministry of Defense. Two extremes, aren’t they? As for the Ministry of Defense, I would like to make a point of how unfounded this criticism is.

She works hard for the money So hard for it honey She works hard for the money So you better treat her right

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Last Saturday, a bunch of Ukrainian artists sang their hearts out for Yulia Tymoshenko on Maidan Nezalezhnosti, the heart of the Orange Revolution.

The event marked the opening of “З Україн❤Ю в сердці” (“With YU❤raine at Heart,”) a pro-Tymoshenko road show — a charitable one, according to the artists. (What else could we expect from a workaholic candidate who wears her heart on her sleeve and calls her campaign ads social advertising?)

Singer Natalia Mohylevska (a fan of Yanukovych in 2004): Let me repeat it again: I'll stay with my candidate till the very end. I'm not a bitch and I'm not a rat running from one place to another because it's worried and wants the next government to provide some, I don't know, benefits — the ones it can really provide.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

That's what Transatlantic Trends says, a project of the German Marshall Fund of the United States (www.gmfus.org) and the Compagnia di San Paolo (www.compagnia.torino.it) with additional support from Fundação Luso-Americana (www.flad.pt), Fundación BBVA (www.fbbva.es), and the Tipping Point Foundation.

In 2009, seven-in-ten Europeans (70%) favor the European Union providing security assistance for emerging democracies such as Ukraine and Georgia. And a majority of Americans (68%) back Washington taking similar action. Strong majorities of NATO members (62%) and Americans (66%) favor NATO providing such assistance.

As a Ukrainian, I'm flattered but not at all placated.

Whatever the accuracy of the poll data, I consider such assistance unrealistic and unreliable. I take my cues from Moscow-first policies pursued in Washington and Berlin.

In the real world, Ukraine has only itself to rely on. And there's only one way Ukraine can deter aggression: renuclearize.

Faced with superior conventional forces on its northeastern border, Ukraine should build survivable nuclear forces capable of inflicting unacceptable damage in retaliation. If Pakistan can do it, so can Ukraine.

This would cost a lot of money but would save a lot of lives, on both sides.

State Russian Duma Vice Speaker Vladimir Zhirinovsky: Any armed forces, but used to protect. It doesn’t have to be a war, it doesn’t have to be bombing, but let them [Ukraine] know that at any moment Russian paratroopers will appear in the air...will make a landing and will force [Ukraine] into peace...and will protect the lives of our citizens.

Mr. Zhirinovsky, without the bombing, most of your paratroopers will be dead on arrival. Our air defense system will take its toll on your bombers as well.

So you’ll need a full-scale war to talk “peace” to us, and you’ll need a pretext for that. Which means that protecting “Russian-speaking people” has nothing to do with peace and everything to do with irredentism and aggression.

Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych: You're seniors and worried about your pension. You’re young and concerned about unemployment. You’re a farmer and don’t know how to harvest your crops. You’re concerned about whether there’ll be heating in your home in the winter. You believe that the government only cares about how to stay in power. You feel betrayed and humiliated. I hear everyone. And I’m ready to help everyone.

Reporter: Hi! Can I ask you about your idea, the one you suggested yesterday, about keeping journalists out of the cafeteria? I mean, please tell us, what did you mean by that?MP Oleksandr Tkachenko (CPU): First of all, I didn’t say it... And who told you this?STB Reporter: We heard it on the Rada floor...Tkachenko: I said that we need coverage — from our press, Rada [channel], radio, television, newspapers — uh...not just on parliament’s activities and those of MPs and the Verkhovna Rada cafeteria, but coverage on how the coal miners are working, how the folks in the countryside are working, how the teachers, the doctors, and so on are working. And rather than hang around here within the confines of the Verkhovna Rada, you should go out into the field.

Reporter: Ahem, ahem...so you’re also saying that we should go?Tkachenko: And the Verkhovna Rada, the Verkhovna Rada...I want you to go talk to the people — that’s all I want — you don’t have to go anywhere else. And once you go talk to the people, you’ll have things to talk about.

Reporter: And what does the cafeteria have to do with this?Tkachenko: It just can’t...the Verkhovna Rada is not the whole life yet. Reporter:And what does the cafeteria have to do with this?Tkachenko: The cafeteria is because...you’re...you have this route: from the Verkhovna Rada hallway into the cafeteria, from the cafeteria into the Verkhovna Rada hallway. It’s not the whole life yet.

Reporter: So what? So what? What does the...Tkachenko: [slams microphone, walks away]

In 2007, Yushchenko's NUNS, according to some sources, drew expertise from the Democratic talent pool, headed by James Carville, Bill Clinton's chief strategist.

In 2008, Tymoshenko became involved with Kenneth Murphy, an American lobbyist who reportedly followed her to high-level bilateral talks — without having a security clearance.

She now has expanded her horizons. Please welcome her new would-be partner, AKPD Message and Media, the company whose A stands for Axelrod, that is, David Axelrod, Obama's right-hand man!

So alleges King Makers for Tymoshenko, an Ukrayinska Pravda article by Mustafa Nayem. The author claims having obtained a PowerPoint presentation from a source whose identity he does not want to compromise.