Regional Employment Patterns in Scotland: Statistics from the Annual Population Survey, 2015

Published:24 May 2016

ISBN:

9781786522887

Summary publication of results from the Annual Population Survey 2015, presenting analysis on the labour market, education and training. Results are provided for Scotland and local authority areas in Scotland.

People in Work

Record high employment level seen in 2015, driven by the
second highest women's employment level since comparable records
began.

Employment levels (16+) in Scotland reached a record high
2,575,500 in 2015, driven by continued increases in the employment
level for women, up 18,200 over the year to 1,255,100- the second
highest level seen since comparable records began. (The highest
occurred in Oct 2014-Sept 2015).

Employment levels for men dropped slightly to 1,320,400, down
1,500 over the year.

However, there are indications that the rapid growth seen
through 2013 and 2014 is starting to level off.

Scotland's employment rate for women highest on record
from APS, but overall employment rate still lags pre-recession
high.

The employment rate for women in Scotland increased over the
year to the highest seen on the APS (up 1.2 percentage points from
68.9% to 70.2%), driving the Scottish employment rate up 0.5
percentage points from 72.6% to 73.1%. The rate for men, however,
was down 0.3 percentage points (from 76.4% to 76.2%).

The employment rate for women is now higher than at the start of
the recession (when it was 68.4%), while the rate for men, by
comparison, is almost 4.0 percentage points lower than its
Oct'07-Sep'08 record high of 79.9%.

Due to population growth and increases in employment for older
workers, the headline employment rate is still lower than it was at
the start of the recession.

Employment rate for men in Scotland not seeing the strong
growth seen for men in UK over the year.

The employment rate in Scotland for men had increased between
2013 and 2014, after being generally flat or decreasing for several
years. However, over the last year it decreased by 0.3 percentage
points to 76.2%, and since the UK rate for males increased by 1.3
percentage points to 78.5% over the year, the gap with the UK has
increased to 2.3 percentage points. The decrease in Scotland was
driven by high reductions in employment levels in City of
Edinburgh, Aberdeen City, West Lothian and North Ayrshire.

Employment rates for men in Scotland have yet to recover to
their pre-recession high of 79.9% in Oct'07-Sep'08.

Employment rates for women increased to 70.2%, the
highest since comparable records began.

The employment rate for women in Scotland has been on a general
upward trajectory since 2011. Over the year their rate increased by
1.2 percentage points to 70.2%, maintaining the gap with the rate
for UK women at 1.6 percentage points as the UK rate increased by
1.1 percentage points to 68.5%. The increase in Scotland was driven
by strong growth in employment levels in South Lanarkshire, Glasgow
City, Highland and Aberdeen City.

The employment rate for women in 2015 was the highest on record
from the APS, exceeding the rates seen at the start and prior to
the 2008 recession.

The gender employment gap in Scotland was 6.0 percentage
points, 4.0 percentage points lower than the UK and the lowest
since comparable records began.

The gender employment gap in Scotland has reduced significantly
from its peak of 11.1 percentage points in Oct'07-Sep'08 to 6.0
percentage points in Jan-Dec 2015.

During the 2008 recession the gap narrowed as the employment
rate for men dropped faster and deeper than those for women and
remained fairly static until 2013, when they started
recovering.

By contrast, employment rates for women started recovering
between 2011 and 2012, and have increased steadily since.

Employment rates increased in 19 local authority areas in
Scotland over the year.

Employment rates vary considerably across local authority areas
in Scotland. The change in employment rate over the year also
varies as illustrated in the map
[1].

Over the year, employment rates increased in 19 local
authorities, decreased in twelve and was unchanged in one,
highlighting that the recovery is not being seen across all areas
of Scotland. Statistically significant changes were seen in
Dumfries & Galloway (up 3.7 percentage points), North Ayrshire
(down 6.4 percentage points), Stirling (down 4.9 percentage points)
and West Lothian (down 4.1 percentage points).

The 2015 APS data shows employment levels for men decreasing in
Aberdeen, although this was offset by an increases in women's
employment levels.

Fourteen local authorities have seen increases in their
employment rate since 2008, but employment rates still remain lower
than in 2008 in the remaining 18 local authorities.

Gap between employment rates of the top and bottom 3
performing local authorities in Scotland reduced by 1.4
percentage points over the year.

Over the year the gap between the employment rates of the the
top and bottom three performing local authorities, as measured by
the Cohesion Purpose Target, reduced from 17.8 to 16.4 percentage
points due to employment rates in the bottom 3 performing regions
increasing faster than the top 3. The gap is still wider than the
14.1 percentage points seen at the start of the recession .

Gap between employment rates of disabled and non-disabled
people was almost 40 percentage points.

Employment rates for those classified as disabled under the
Equality Act 2010
[2] were 38.3 percentage points lower than for those not
classified as disabled.

Young (16-24) disabled people have the lowest employment rate
gap across the age groups (17.7 percentage points), although they
also have the lowest employment rate (40.8%). Older workers (50-64)
have the largest gap (43.5 percentage points) reflecting greater
health issues faced by those in this age group.

Disabled women in Scotland had a lower employment rate gap than
disabled men in 2015 (34.8 and 41.9 percentage points
respectively).

This will, in part be due to non-disabled women having a lower
employment rate than non-disbaled men, but is mainly due to
disabled women having an almost identical employment rate to
disabled men, although it should be noted that employment rates for
different health conditions vary substantially.

Employment rates for ethnic minorities in Scotland are on
average
[3] about 13 percentage points lower than those for the white
population.

The difference is driven mainly by much lower employment rates
for minority ethnic women which are typically below 50% (about 20
percentage points lower than white women). In contrast,the
difference for minority ethnic men on average is around 7
percentage points (in 2015, the gap was slightly under 3 percentage
points, but due to small sample sizes for the minority ethnic group
in Scotland, these estimates are quite volatile).

Youth employment rates in Scotland have decreased by 4.5
percentage points since the recession but increased for those
aged 50-64.

Employment rates for 25-34 and 35-49 year olds generally
remained around 80% even through the recession, indicating a fairly
high resilience to economic change.

Younger workers (16-24) saw the main impact of the recession,
their rates reducing from 60.7% in 2008 to 53.2% in 2014 but
recovering slightly to 56.2% in 2015. In contrast, employment rates
for workers aged 50-64 have increased through the recovery.

Men driving decrease in employment rates for younger
workers since 2008, while women drive increase for those aged
50-64.

Younger men have seen a 8.6 percentage point decrease in their
employment rate since 2008.

Younger workers have generally moved from employment and (to a
lesser extent) unemployment into inactivity (mainly into further or
higher education).

Employed women and (to a lesser extent) men aged 50-64 have seen
an increase in their employment rates since 2008.

This is in part due to changes in the state retirement age for
women, but there may also be other reasons including improved
health of older workers and the need to supplement pension
provisions.

Youth employment rates increased in 21 local authority
areas over the year as overall youth employment rate in Scotland
increased by 3.0 percentage points to 56.2%.

The youth employment rate in Scotland increased by 3.0
percentage points over the year to 56.2% in 2015, and increased by
the same amount to 53.5% in the UK.

However, youth employment rates remain lower than in 2008 in
both Scotland (4.5 percentage points lower) and the UK (2.4
percentage points lower).

Twenty-one local authorities
[4] have seen increases in their youth employment rates over the
year to 2015, while eleven local authorities have seen decreases
over the same period.

Dundee City, North Ayrshire and Stirling, had the lowest youth
employment rates in 2015 (43.0%, 44.2%, 45.7% respectively).
Employment rates in Dundee City and Stirling will be affected by
large student populations in these authority areas.

Number of workers aged 65 and over has almost doubled
since 2004, helping drive higher employment rates for older
workers.

The employment rate for older workers (50+) in Scotland has been
increasing steadily from 35.7% in 2004 to 39.8% in 2015,
driven by:

a 27.3% rise in employment level for 50-64 year olds (from
573,200 to 729,900), with their employment rate increasing from
61.9% to 68.6%.

a 94% rise in employment level for those aged 65 and over
(from 41,200 to 80,000), with their employment rate increasing
from 5.2% to 8.2%.

Women accounted for almost 60% of the increase in those aged
50-64, whilst men accounted for around 60% of the increase in those
aged 65+. The shift in both cases is mainly from inactivity to
employment (delaying retirement or moving back into work from
either retirement or sickness).

Full-time employment levels for women in Scotland rose by over
25,000 over the year to reach its highest levels seen on the APS at
727,500, while full-time employment levels for men reduced by 5,000
over the same period, partially offset by a 4,100 increase in
part-time employment. Overall, full-time employment levels rose by
20,600 over the year while part-time employment levels decreased by
3,500, indicating a small shift into full-time work.

Full-time employment levels in 2015 (1,871,600) were still over
32,000 lower than in 2008 when they were 1,903,800, driven by a
53,100 decrease in full-time employment levels for men.

Both men and women have seen increases of over 30,000 in levels
of part-time employment levels since 2008.

This indicates a shift from full to part-time employment for
men, while the increase for women is mainly due to shifts from
unemployment or inactivity.

Rise in underemployment driven mainly by increase for
workers age 25-34 and men in full-time work.

The underemployment
[6] level in Scotland increased by 16,100 over the year to
232,700, with the rate increasing by 0.6 percentage points from
8.6% to 9.1%.

The increase in underemployment over the year was mainly driven
by increases in levels for men in full-time work (up 8,400)
although smaller increases were also seen for women in full-time
work and both men and women in part-time work.

All age groups except 16-24 year olds saw increases over the
year in underemployment, with 25-34 year olds seeing the largest
increase (up 14,500).

Underemployment is still higher in most local authorities
than it was prior at the start of the 2008 recession.

The local authority areas with the highest underemployment
rartes in 2015 were North Ayrshire (13.6%), Scottish Borders
(13.1%), Fife (12.6%), while the lowest rates were seen in West
Lothian (5.0%), Aberdeen City (5.5%) and North Lanarkshire
(5.9%).

Underemployment rates reduced in 15 local authority areas over
the year, while 17 saw increases. Statistically significant
increases were seen over the year in City of Edinburgh (up 4.0
percentage points from 6.0% to 10.0%) and South Lanarkshire (up 3.3
percentage points from 5.6% to 8.9%).

Underemployment remains higher in most local authority areas
than in 2008, with 27 local authorities having a higher rate, 4
having a lower rate and 1 remaining unchanged. The highest
statistically significant increases were seen in Scottish Borders
and City of Edinburgh (up 5.8 and 5.4 percentage points
respectively) while the largest statisitcally significant decreases
were seen in North Lanarkshire and West Lothian (both down 1.2
percentage points).

Gender segregation remains a persistent issue across
several industry sectors and occupational groups in
Scotland.

Although equality legislation has been in place for many years
[7] gender segregation is still apparent in many industry sectors
in Scotland.

Almost half of women in Scotland (45.7%) work in the Public
admin education and health sector. (Note this is not the same as
the Public Sector).

Over two-fifths (43.2%) of men work in sectors that exhibit high
levels of gender segregation: Manufacturing (12.5%), Construction
(11.4%), Transport and communication (11.1%), Energy and water
(5.8%) and Agriculture and fishing (2.4%).

The general level of gender segregation within the most highly
segregated industry sectors has not changed substantially since the
APS started in 2004.

Gender segregation across the various occupational groups shows
a similar picture to that seen across industry sectors. Specific
occupational groups show high levels of segregation and these show
little change over time.

Almost half of all women (45.7%) in Scotland were employed in
occupations that are gender segregated towards women:
Administrative and secretarial (18.2%), Personal service (16.6%)
and Sales and customer service occupations (10.9%).

Almost a third (29.4%) of men in Scotland were employed in
occupations that exhibit high levels of gender segregation: Skilled
trades (19.3%) and Process, plant and machine operatives
(10.1%).

Gains in employment levels seen over the year in Banking,
finance and insurance and Public admin, education and health
sectors.

Over the year to 2015, the largest increases in employment
levels were seen in the Banking, finance and insurance and the
Public admin, education and health sectors (up 24,000 and 16,500
respectively).

The largest decrease in employment level was seen in the
Distribution, hotels and restaurants sector (down 24,200).

The decrease seen in the Energy and water sector (down 5,600)
may reflect lower oil prices. Over half the decrease in this sector
was seen in Aberdeen City (down 3,300).

Private sector employment in 2015 was 1,876,500 - amongst
the highest on record since the series began.

Since the series began in 2004, there have been increases in the
number of those aged 25-34, 50-64 and 65+ employed in the private
sector (up 75,100, 93,200 and 30,300 respectively) while the number
of those aged 16-24 and 35-39 employed in the private sector has
decreased (down 16,100 and 25,600 respectively).

Since 2008, the increases seen in private sector employment have
been driven by increases in part-time employment (up 71,400), while
full-time employment decreased by 10,500, although it has been
recovering since 2013.

In contrast the decreases seen in the public sector
[8] since 2008 were driven by decreases in full-time employment
levels (down 23,000).

Impact of Education on employment prospects.

Skills are a key factor considered by employers. Having the
right skills generally improves employment prospects for
individuals although it is not the only consideration.

People with Further and Higher education qualifications
have employment rates almost double that of those with
qualifications Credit Standard grade and below.

There is a strong link between educational attainment and
employability.

The employment rate for those with SVQ level 4+ qualifications
(83.5%) is almost double that for those with below SVQ level 2
qualifications (47.4%).

The difference between employment rates of those with SVQ level
4+ and SVQ level 2-3 qualifications is 13.7 percentage points.

A record high 48.4% of working people (aged 16-64) have
Further or Higher education qualifications (or equivalent) in
Scotland.

The increase in the proportion with SVQ level 4 or higher
qualifications is being driven by the highest level of workers with
Degree or Professional qualifications (792,000), up 33,300 since
2014 and the highest level of workers with HNC/HND level
qualifications (414,700), up 5,700 over the year.

Those with SVQ level 4 or higher qualifications are the largest
group in Scotland. In the UK, those with SVQ level 2 or 3 make up
the largest group at 42.7%. The general trend towards higher level
qualifications is however similar to that seen in Scotland.

Over a third (34.6%) of workers aged 25-64 in Scotland
were graduates in 2015 - the highest on record from the
APS.

The proportion of 25-64 in Scotland who were graduates in 2015
was the highest seen since records began in 2004. This was driven
by increases in 24 local authority areas over the year.

The largest increases were seen in South Ayrshire, Aberdeenshire
and Argyll and Bute (all up 4.6 percentage points to 31.3%, 33.6%
and 30.1%, respectively).