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The McGuinty government says it will create 50,000 jobs over three years if its proposed Green Energy Act is passed – even calling it a conservative estimate – but industry observers aren't so sure the numbers add up.

During a media briefing Monday, officials from the energy ministry said two of every five new jobs would come directly or indirectly from upgrades to transmission and distribution systems, spurred initially by a $5 billion investment.

It amounts to roughly 20,000 jobs. "Most direct jobs will be in construction with remaining jobs in equipment supply," including manufacturing, engineering design and transportation, according to a ministry document that broadly breaks down the job numbers.

Achieving those numbers by 2012 won't be easy, said Don MacKinnon, president of the Power Workers' Union. He said some of the jobs are highly technical in nature and would require up to six years of training for individuals entering the field. "It's an extremely aggressive number," he said.

Frank Macedo, an electrical engineering consultant who used to oversee transmission planning at the former Ontario Hydro, said creating that many jobs in three years is "a tall order." As it is, utilities such as Hydro One and Ontario Power Generation are already struggling to replace thousands of boomer-age employees who will be retiring over the next few years.

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Macedo said the bulk of the jobs would likely relate to the manufacturing and supply of project equipment and materials, including transformers, breakers, switches, cables and tower structures. The demand for transmission cables and towers could be a major boost for Ontario steel producers and manufacturers, but most electrical gear for transmission projects is made outside of Canada.

Before a shovel could even break ground, added Macedo, the transmission and distribution projects being considered would have to be properly planned and designed – itself a time-consuming process. "I think five to 10 years is more realistic," he said.

On the distribution side, the bottleneck is less severe. The proposed legislation gives local distribution companies such as Toronto Hydro the ability to recover funds through ratepayers to accelerate hiring.

Hundreds of new journeyman and apprentice jobs could be created to support upgrades to distribution networks, but that's assuming the workers are out there. It takes about three to four years to train somebody to work on a distribution system, Toronto Hydro chief executive Dave O'Brien said.

It's unclear whether colleges and universities are currently equipped to accommodate such training.

Jobs related to transmission and distribution upgrades are only part of the government "green-collar" work strategy. The proposed legislation is also expected to create 13,500 jobs related to smart-grid development, 8,500 jobs for installers and manufacturers of renewable-energy systems, and 7,500 jobs for energy auditors, engineers and contractors that help home owners and businesses owners use energy more efficiently.

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