NCAA tournament trends: Betting Sweet 16 returnees

With the 2013 NCAA tournament entering the Sweet 16 round, let’s take a different perspective in analyzing the teams that have arrived. This one pertains specifically to teams that are returning to the Sweet 16 for the second straight year. All hand of deck

Taking a look at this year’s list of returnees, we find half of last year’s field returning. They include, Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan State, Ohio State and Syracuse.

According to our database, since 1992, teams making a right-back appearance in the Sweet 16 are 63-43 SU and 48-56-2 ATS in this round of the tourney.

The cutline, however, is often times the pointspread.

That’s confirmed by the fact that favorites of more than six points are 35-3 SU and 23-15 ATS in these games. Priced at anything less (dog or favorite of six or fewer points), they dip drastically to 28-40 SU and 25-41-2 ATS in competitive contests.

This year’s teams making the cut (favored by six or more points) are: Florida and Louisville.

Not quite a 10

Looking at it from a varied perspective, Sweet 16 returnees seem to struggle when arriving off a win of less than 10 points, going just 25-24 SU and 17-30-2 ATS. This year that would include Marquette and Ohio State.

Florida, Kansas, Louisville and Michigan State each appears to be spared by their degree of favoritism.

Note: Indiana and Syracuse face one another.

Seedy development

As expected, the top two seeds fare the best in Sweet 16 games as returnees, going 48-15 SU combined. Against the spread, however, they are a lukewarm 32-31 ATS.

No. 3 seeds have fared the worst, going 5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS as returnees in this round. Not good news for Marquette or Michigan State.

Ironically, the Eagles failed in this same role as small favorites, losing 68-58 as small favorite versus Florida.

Sayanora

When Sweet 16 returnees arrive and are forced to take on top-quality foe with a win percentage of .850 or greater, they spring a major leak, going 7-16 SU and 8-14-1 ATS including 4-14 SU and 4-13-1 ATS in they won fewer than 30 games last season.

If these same guys are facing a foe off a win of 15 or more points they capsize, going 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS.

The life rafts are ready and standing by for Michigan State this Friday.

The bottom line is you can draw your own conclusions, if you like. But make no mistake, when it comes to handicapping teams in the Sweet 16, the winners will likely be the better-qualified teams that have “been there-and-done that”. Or those who know how to keep a ship afloat, if you know what I mean…

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1* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The chances for the Browns to avoid the infamy of 0-16 are rapidly dwindling. They are just four games left, but realistically there's probably only two shots where they have a legit chance to win, Dec 24th vs. San Diego and here. This week they are coming off a bye and hosting Cincinnati. I'll recommend to take the points.

It's not as if the Browns haven't been competitive. In fact, they actually outgained the Giants two weeks ago in a 27-13 loss. That game really swung on a defensive score by the G-Men. Despite what the final scores might indicate, they've been competitive in four of the last five games. That doesn't even include close losses to Baltimore, Miami and Tennessee earlier in the year. Robert Griffin III, out since Week 1, is expected to be back this week as the starting QB. Coming off a bye and still motivated to avoid NFL history ('08 Lions only 0-16 team in history), the Browns are a solid value this week. Consider that the "lookahead" line for this game was only +3.5.

The Bengals turned in one of their best performances of the year last week, routing Philadelphia 32-14. But it's "too little, too late" here as a 4-7-1 SU record is probably too big of a hole to climb out of. Even if they were to win out, I'm not sure the Bengals would get into the playoffs. The offense is without WR AJ Green and unlike LW, this is a road game. So far this year, the Bengals are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS away from home. After being darlings at the betting window LY, Cincy is just 3-8-1 ATS overall in 2016. With Browns HC Hue Jackson being the Bengals former OC, might there be a little sympathy on the sidelines? Not sure, but Cleveland is also due to erase an 0-4 SU/ATS slide in this AFC North rivalry. 1* Cleveland

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