Articles, videos and conference keynote presentations on future of geopolitics, government, democracy, local and regional governance, public sector workers, inward investment, single issue activism, conflicts, hybrid wars and related issues. Patrick Dixon is one of the world's best-known Futurist keynote speakers, has worked with hundreds of the world's largest companies, many governments and non-profits, and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today. Clients include hundreds of the world's largest multinationals, as well as World Bank, UNIDO, UNAIDS, European Commission, US Federal Government (Pentagon), Abu Dhabi Police Authority, UK Department of Trade and Industry, Irish government, South Korea Ministry of Knowledge and Economy, Jebel Ali Free Zone (UAE), Kazakhstan government, Lithuanian government, Portuguese government, State of Connecticut, Welsh Assembly, UK Parliament, London Connect. Patrick Dixon has given Futurist keynotes on issues related to public policy, to audiences in North America, Central America, Latin America, Western Europe, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Baltic States, Scandinavia, Africa, Central Asia, South East Asia and Asia Pacific.

President Trump is very typical of a new generation of "single-issues politicians", rising up around the world as I predicted years ago

He thrives on the elusive powers of 24 hours a day media-streaming of his thoughts and feelings, taps into populist emotions, connects with the passions of ordinary people, expresses very well their fears for their own future, as well as their dreams for their own children.

A part of this has been the powerful slogan: "Make America Great Again", which feeds into deep unease about the declining role, influence and economic powers of America as a proportion of the whole world. This in turn is being driven by the very long term, irresistible and relentless rise in emerging nations, where 85% of humanity already live.

Leaving aside whatever you may feel about President Trump's official, longer term policies, the truth is that his day to day communications and actions are massively different from what is normally expected in developed nations of their own Presidents or Prime Ministers, and are much more typical in some ways of patterns that we tend to see amongst semi-dictators in emerging markets....

A few years ago, I gave a lecture to the Pentagon (USPACOM), on how to reduce risks of future wars and reduce international tensions. It was one of the toughest assignments I can remember.

Our world spends over $1.8 trillion every year on weapons and other defence costs, or 2.5% of global GDP, down from 4% in the last days of the Cold War, equivalent to $250 per person on earth. Combined sales of the largest 100 arms companies is around $320 billion a year - yet most of it is completely irrelevant to the conflicts of the future.

40% of all global military spending is by one nation alone: America, which burns up more in this way than the next 15 highest-spending nations combined. This is a truly spectacular imbalance of military fire-power, and will be unsustainable in the longer term as we will see. America only needs to spend 3% of GDP on arms to achieve such dominance – compared to Russia which today spends 4% of a much smaller economy, China 2%, India 2%, UK 2%, France 2%, Israel 6%, Saudi Arabia 9% and Oman 12%.... But how do we ensure world peace?....

Reasons for the US election victory of Donald Trump will be debated for decades. Here are major long-term factors at work across America and in every other democratic nation, which I described in The Future of Almost Everything - my latest book, see below, (with additions in italics today). These set the backdrop for dramatic events over the last few hours (9 November 2016), and also influenced the Brexit vote. Read on for" What happens when faith in ideologies and parties dies; why tribalism is the most powerful force in the world today; why President Trump will struggle to deliver.

democracy and democratic pressures from social networks. Cover ups and government deceptions, impact of wikileaks on government internal communications and policies. Freedom of information and corruption. Politics and political change. Impact of SMS, twitter, Linkedin, Facebook, Youtube and other social networks on dictatorships v democracy. How dictators fear loss of political power from freedom of information. Use of mobile technology, smart phones and other communication devices to drive protests and public disorder. How governments and dictatorships have switched off mobile telephones and SMS, web ...

What next after Tunisia, Libya, Egypt? Impact of SMS, twitter, Linkedin, Facebook, Youtube and other social networks on dictatorships v democracy in Middle East and across the world. How Africa, Arab and Asia dictators fear loss of political power from freedom of information.

Use of mobile technology, smart phones and other communication devices to drive protests and public disorder. How governments and dictatorships have switched off mobile telephones and SMS, web access etc to maintain political control. How power is shifting from government leaders, ...

Democratic models of government may not always be best. Risks from trying to impose a Western developed nation model on rest of world. Need to respect different political traditions, forms of government and cultural differences. Seeking to impose democratic system can be seen as form of cultural imperialism.

Where the majority of the country favour a particular radical direction, democratic elections may result in governments and policies that are more extreme than the dictators that were replaced.

Future of Government and Politics - articles / videos and keynote conference presentations on regional and national government, resolving conflicts between and inside nations, future democracy, activist movements and terrorism. - For more see links on this page

We can debate the morality and chaotic aftermath of the 2003 Iraq War, and miss the bigger picture, which is far wider than the post 9/11 war against terror, or the current crisis among Palestinians and Israelis, or the situation in Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, North Korea, or the convulsions in the UN and the EU, or US global dominance and accusations of aggressive imperialism.

Greatest weapon of terrorists is fear playing on irrational emotions of public. Need to understand power of asymmetric threats using easily available bomb-making products. Military strikes less helpful than understanding underlying issues, perceived injustice etc and working to reduce numbers of disaffected activists that later become violent, intelligence, vigilance etc. Overstated risks of terror attacks, failure to understand risks. Why terrorism rules by fear and how to defeat it.