Chris Lau - Seeking Alpha

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Going Nowhere for 17 Years?

In the July-August edition of the Castlemoore newsletter, Robert “Hap” Sneddon suggested the Dow Jones Industrial Average may currently be in a secular bear market. It began in 2000 and could last 17 years. With the markets failing to recover from extended losses today, the scenario might have be considered. Here is the website if you want to subscribe: www.castlemoore.com

There is growing evidence that the banking malaise is now spreading to the rest of the economy. Previously the problem was contained in housing, automotive, and the financial sector. But since banks are not lending to even healthy small businesses in the U.S., this will clearly impact growth in healthy sectors. In the end, the consumer will also cut back. Take Corning, for example. It warned of weak 3Q earnings, and weak 4Q also. Fewer people will be buying bigger LCD tv's this holiday season.