College football preview: Alabama building dynasty

Updated 11:46 pm, Saturday, August 24, 2013

College football discussions this year begin with one simple question: Can anyone knock off Alabama?

The Crimson Tide have quashed two basic assumptions - that college football dynasties are no longer possible and that offenses rule the sport.

Despite having 29 players taken in the NFL draft the past four years, including 13 in the first round, Alabama is favored to become the first team since Minnesota in 1934-1936 to win three straight national championships and could become the first team to win four consensus national titles in a five-year span.

The Tide did not rank among the nation's top 30 teams in total offense in any of those three recent national championship seasons, but was first or second in total defense each time. With eight returning starters from a defense that led the nation in 2012, Alabama may be even better on that side of the ball.

It seems the only way to beat Alabama's mistake-free defense is to have a quarterback who can make plays no team can prepare for.

Of Alabama's five losses the past four seasons, four came against teams that had a quarterback who could create game-breaking plays by running, throwing or ad-libbing (LSU's Jordan Jefferson twice, Auburn's Cam Newton and Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel).

Coach Nick Saban celebrates Alabama's shutout of LSU for the BCS title, repeated last season with a victory over Notre Dame.

Coach Nick Saban celebrates Alabama's shutout of LSU for the BCS title, repeated last season with a victory over Notre Dame.

Photo: Gerald Herbert, Associated Press

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Quarterback Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M gave 'Bama its only loss last season.

Quarterback Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M gave 'Bama its only loss last season.

Photo: Patric Schneider, Associated Press

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Ohio State's Braxton Miller is the type of dual-threat QB who could beat SEC defenses.

Ohio State's Braxton Miller is the type of dual-threat QB who could beat SEC defenses.

Photo: Jay LaPrete, Associated Press

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College football preview: Alabama building dynasty

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For that reason, Alabama's game against Texas A&M and Manziel in College Station on Sept. 14 is the pivotal game of the season.

If Manziel plays.

Las Vegas bookmakers have taken games involving No. 7 Texas A&M off the board because of uncertainty whether Manziel's alleged paid autograph sessions will lead the NCAA to declare him ineligible.

Manziel, who won the Heisman Trophy as a redshirt freshman largely because of his showing against Alabama, has become the prototype for success.

Six of the top eight teams in the preseason Associated Press poll rely on dual-threat quarterbacks who can make plays when things break down.

The three teams with the best chance of ending the SEC's seven-year run of national championships have quarterbacks who can defeat the SEC defenses with versatility and improvisation: Ohio State (Braxton Miller), Oregon (Marcus Mariota) and Stanford (Kevin Hogan).

The Pac-12 is the best example of the trend. Once a conference of drop-back quarterbacks, the Pac-12's four best teams this year are led by dual-threat QBs - Mariota, Hogan, UCLA's Brett Hundley and Arizona State's Taylor Kelly.

If you're looking for a national surprise team, look no further than Arizona State, which is unranked but has a lot of ingredients to like.

The questions at Oregon surround new coach Mark Helfrich. He has never been a head coach at any level but is being asked to oversee and enhance the distinctive style put in place by up-tempo maven Chip Kelly that made the Ducks a national power.

Similar uncertainty surrounded Stanford's David Shaw two years ago when he became a head coach for the first time and needed to perpetuate the physical, run-first identity installed by Jim Harbaugh.

Now, after Stanford finished ranked No. 7 in each of Shaw's first two seasons, the question is whether the Cardinal can navigate a back-loaded schedule that includes five contests against preseason top-25 teams in their final six games. And that does not include a Pac-12 title game or the contest against underrated Arizona State.

The only Pac-12 team with a tougher schedule is Cal, which faces seven ranked teams, including the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 teams in the preseason polls.

Compare that with No. 9 Louisville, which has the best chance to go undefeated because it does not face any teams ranked in the preseason. The toughest game for the Cardinals, who play in the meek American Athletic Conference (formerly the Big East), may be their opener against Ohio, a Mid-American Conference squad.

Would the pollsters and computers lift an unbeaten Louisville squad over a once-beaten Alabama team for a spot in the BCS national championship game?

They might if Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater becomes the Heisman front-runner. Bridgewater and South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney figure to be the top two picks in next spring's NFL draft, but Bridgewater does not fit the recent Heisman profile.

Though mobile, Bridgewater is primarily a pocket passer. Three of the past four Heisman winners have been dual-threat quarterbacks who stick in Heisman voters' minds because they look good in the SportsCenter clips.

Plus, none of the past four Heisman winners was a preseason candidate for the award. In fact, three of the four were not even starters the previous season. These days it's better to burst onto the scene in a flurry of highlights than to win the preseason public relations battle.

We're betting that some quarterback who beats a high-ranked team with spectacular broken plays will grab the award. We just don't know which player that will be.

AP Top 25

The Top 25 teams in the Associated Press preseason poll, with first-place votes in parentheses, 2012 records, total points based on 25 points for a first-place vote through one point for a 25th-place vote, and final ranking: