Did eBay sales predict the Superbowl winner?

No, they didn't - although gamblers and bookies did predict the victor of Superbowl XL between the Seattle Seahawks and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The "eBay sales" idea was simple, playing on the "wisdom of crowds" idea which suggests that large bodies of people acting independently will make better predictions than a few acting together. (It's why asking the audience in Who Wants To Be A Millionaire? is the most reliable lifeline.) On that basis, the better team might have more fan support, and so merchandise for that team will sell for a higher price on eBay than the soon-to-be losers. A tool on mpire.com, a site set up for those who sell goods on eBay, kept track of the average price of comparable merchandise for the two teams, and put the two side by side (http://tinyurl.com/bfshw). By the end, Seattle's price was well ahead, at roughly $144 v $99 for Pittsburgh.

Part of the uncertainty about the Superbowl result is that the two teams do not play each other in the regular season, unlike British football where Premiership teams play each other twice. In theory, that makes the result harder to forecast - and eBay at least had some data.

However, something happened on the way to the meme museum: the Superbowl itself, in which - as the bookies had expected, based on their own experience of making money from American football - the Steelers, who started as favourites, finished as winners by 21-10.

So why were the eBay numbers wrong? Lots of reasons are possible, but the simplest may be the best: Seattle is a comparatively wealthy city, with about 60% more people than Pittsburgh, which saw declines in population and jobs during the 90s. That would imply that people most likely to buy Seahawks gear would have more disposable income, and be more plentiful, than those backing the Steelers. But that didn't have any effect on the performance of the teams on the pitch - which, of course, is where it matters.

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