STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. -- If the city imposes a 47 percent funding cut on the borough's five largest cultural organizations, personnel in the already understaffed facilities will lose their jobs and operating hours will be reduced.

The unprecedented reduction is higher even than the cuts that loomed over the cultural sector in the late 1970s when the city nearly declared bankruptcy.

But how likely is it? Traditionally, when fiscal restraint is in order, City Hall cries "Wolf!" early on, predicting deeper cuts than it knows it will impose. It's a psychological ploy. When the somewhat lighter, genuine blow finally falls, it comes as a relief.

This year, no one in the cultural community thinks the final figures will be a relief. Ordinarily, an insider like City Councilman James Oddo (R-Mid-Island) would have a some sense of the bottom line. Not this year.

"It's an ugly year, with ugly cuts," he said, "and there are just too many moving parts, including the state budget. You just can't say what's going to happen this year."

There is some hope, the councilman said. "The Mayor sees the city's cultural community as an economic engine for the city. That may help."

The dire 47 percent threat is new. Late last winter, five local facilities -- Staten Island Zoo, Historic Richmond Town, Staten Island Museum. Staten Island Children's Museum and Snug Harbor Cultural Center and Botanical Garden -- that are part of the top-tier, citywide Cultural Institutions Group were forewarned: Expect 12 percent cuts in the new fiscal year.

But last month, driven by deepening demands on shrinking tax revenues, the city raised the alarm, to nearly 47 percent.

AT RICHMOND TOWN

Well into the second year of a recession, cultural organizations have already trimmed their staff and payroll. But further losses in funding will lead "reluctantly" to layoffs, said Ed Wiseman, executive director of Historic Richmond Town.

With 100 acres and 35 buildings, Richmond Town has more property to manage than any other local not-for-profit cultural facility.

Last year, the city contributed $780,075 towards day-to-day operations, much of it going right into payroll. For the moment, Wiseman is working with figures that project a 35 percent reduction for the new year.

"It's going to be very hard, extremely difficult even then," he said. The city's "share" of Richmond Town's budget represents 29 percent of the total figure.

The rest comes from fund-raising efforts, grants and donations. "We expect to reduce hours, but we're trying to avoid layoffs," Wiseman said. "We knew this was coming, but we're down to bone now. Our facilities department is four people ... to care for 35 buildings!"

AT THE ZOO

The Staten Island Zoo also looks after a large and labor-intensive collection -- its birds, mammals, fish and reptiles -- that require care, no matter the bottom line.

Interim director Ken Mitchell said that "voluntary separations and retirements" were already being encouraged at the West Brighton facility. "Other cost cutting options include the possibility of closing the Zoo one day per week" could follow, if necessary, he said.

For years now, the city has encouraged top-tier organizations, all members of its Cultural Institutions Group to reduce their reliance on municipal funding, to an ideal proportion of 30 percent or less.

The goal has prompted new fund-raising strategies. One of the most successful was a concert performed this past winter by singer/songwriter Ingrid Michaelson daughter of Elizabeth Egbert, executive director of the Staten Island Museum. Proceeds from the sold-out Music Hall show went to the museum.

"It's almost as if you get penalized for doing a better job, expanding your facility, your audience, and your programs," Egbert said.

AT THE MUSEUMS

The 129-year-old museum received $754,000 -- about a third of its operating budget from the city this year. A 47 % subtraction would leave the place, one of the oldest cultural institutions in the city, with about $494,000.

In the event of such a cut, "you have to be extremely creative," Ms. Egbert said. "In our case, there are things we just can't do. Plus, we're expanding. The museum has to be able to market itself to potential funders, but how can we do that if we're cutting programs."

The Museum is asking its membership and visitors to contact the City Council and encourage representatives to fight the cuts.

"We're looking at different options for closing the gap," she said, declining to specify them.

AT THE HARBOR

Like Historic Richmond Town, the Snug Harbor Cultural Center and Botanical Garden has a lot of real estate to look after -- 83 acres and 31 buildings. Previous prunings have reduced the payroll, including maintenance people, gardeners and security personnel. by two-thirds.

The 47 percent cut would turn the city's $897,395 share of the operating budget into $472, 201, a "dreadful" formula, in the words of Jerry Kelly, chief financial officer.

Five years ago, 120 people were on the payroll in various capacities, he said. Today there are 40.

Saving money by restricting access to the site won't be considered. "How can we do that," said Joanne Mardikos, chief operating officer. "That's our mission."