Analysis of the most recent Super Tuesday polls

The GOP primary race will go into high gear in the coming week when 12 states vote on what has become known as Super Tuesday. Next Tuesday could be momentous in many ways. The results could effectively assure Donald Trump of the Republican Party nomination, or alternatively give Marco Rubio and/or Ted Cruz new life if they can steal many states. Here is the current state of the race and most recent polls released in the last 48 hours from WBUR/MASSINC, Monmouth, and TEGNA/Survey USA.

In future state the Republican Party allows delegates to be split up in one of three ways. There is a winner take all method, in which the first place finisher takes all the delegates for a given state no matter how small the margin of victory. There is a proportional method in which delegates are awarded proportionally based on what percentage of the vote each candidate received. However, a candidate in a proportional state may earn no delegates if they do not meet a certain threshold percent (10 percent for example) of the overall vote in the state. Proportional states also often allow a candidate to win all the state’s delegates if they exceed 50 percent of the vote. Finally, some states have a “hybrid” system where a candidate can win some delegates according to how they perform in congressional districts.

Trump obviously has a great deal of momentum heading into the future states after his three consecutive wins in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. In addition, the most recent national poll from IBD/TIPP has Donald Trump leading all other candidates by double digits nationally. A Real Clear Politics average of the six most recent polls has Trmp at 33.2 percent nationally, compared 20.3 percent for Cruz, 16.7 percent for Rubio, and 9.3 percent for John Kasich.

Analysis: The biggest prize of Super Tuesday will be Texas with its 172 delegates. Texas awards delegates on a proportional basis, and I believe Rubio will miss that cutoff as Cruz and Trump make a big push in Texas. Trump could effectively eliminate Cruz with a win in Texas, so expect Cruz to put as many resources as possible into defending his home turf. Meanwhile, Trump can afford to lose Texas and still make up for it with victories in other states as seen below. The newest poll from Monmouth is a good news for Cruz, but consideration of it must be balanced with other polls that show Trump tied or even leading in the state.

Analysis: The second biggest prize on Super Tuesday is Georgia. The most recent polls and RCP average have Trump winning there, and he will likely get a bump from his victories in South Carolina and Nevada. The new TEGNA/SurveyUSA poll here shows Trump surging and Cruz falling off badly. Trump is projected to win most of the delegates as a result.

Analysis: Tennessee is harder to predict since the most recent poll from the state was released last November. Cruz will likely benefit from the large evangelical population in the state, but as shown in South Carolina and Nevada Trump is also able to attract a large percentage of the evangelical vote. Based on national polling and the momentum factor Trump is given most of the state’s delegates. There has been no new polling in Tennessee since late November of 2015.

Analysis: Perhaps the most aggressive projection here is Alabama. There is also a strong evangelical base in Alabama, but it really fits Trump’s voter profile of working class voters with strong anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant beliefs.

Analysis: Virginia has the lowest threshold to obtain delegates which will benefit candidates like Kasich and Carson who are getting low percentages in most states now. Using the most recent poll just released yesterday from Monmouth, Trump is given the most delegates. Rubio will likely make a strong push in Virginia since it contains more moderate Republicans than other states.

Analysis: Once again Trump is given this state based on the latest polling and likely bump he will get from his wins in South Carolina and Nevada. Cruz will likely devote many resources here since Oklahoma is a neighboring state to his home state of Texas, and since Oklahoma contains many evangelical voters. Rubio will have a really hard time competing in Oklahoma.

Analysis: The electorate Massachusetts really fits Trump well which shows in the most recent poll from Emerson College. Trump will likely win the state in the same way he won New Hampshire, but maybe by an even larger margin. The most recent poll from WBUR/MassINC shows Trump with a large lead in the state, though not quite as large of a lead as a recent Emerson College poll which showed Trump at 50 percent in Massachusetts.

Analysis: Arkansas probably represents the best hope for Ted Cruz outside of Texas. The state has a large evangelical base and neighbors Texas. The most recent polling has Cruz ahead of Trump, but that poll was taken before Trump won South Carolina and Nevada. In this projection Cruz and Trump essentially tie in Arkansas and Rubio places third.

Analysis: Minnesota represents Rubio best chance to win a state on Super Tuesday given its relatively small evangelical population and larger proportion of moderate voters. The most recent poll has Rubio leading, but it is an older poll that fails to take into account any momentum Trump gained from wins in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. trump is given the state based on his national poll standing, but the projection is less reliable given the lack of recent state polling.

Analysis: There is a lack of recent polling from Alaska but the polling that does exist shows Trump leading in January. Since then Trump has probably only increased his lead, and is given a majority of the state’s delegates in this projection.

Analysis: Trump is winning this state big in the most recent poll and will probably win the state by a large margin like he did in New Hampshire. In fact, given Trump’s recent victories, he is projected to exceed 50 percent in Vermont and win all the state delegates.

Conclusion and Totals

The recent polls show Trump gaining momentum if anything. It will be interesting to see how the debate last night affects these numbers, or if it does at all. At the end of Super Tuesday this projection has Cruz winning one state (Texas) and possibly one more (Arkansas). Trump will undoubtedly win six states (Georgia, Massachusetts, Alabama, Tennessee, Alaska, and Vermont) and likely win three more (Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Arkansas). Rubio has an outside shot at winning two states (Minnesota and Virginia), but is probably an underdog even in those states. The delegate totals after Super Tuesday will put Trump well ahead of the other candidates, and well positioned to take the Republican Party nomination.