As the new Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, prepares for the latest overhaul of the armed forces, there is much speculation about his plans.

When Sergei Shoigu took over at the Defence Ministry in November, he inherited a military at a crossroads, torn between tradition and the half-completed reforms of his predecessor, Anatoly Serdyukov. Mr Shoigu will have to decide between maintaining a large, conventional force or pursuing Mr Serdyukov’s goal of creating leaner, more modern armed forces.

While servicemen rejoiced at the ousting of Russia’s least popular minister, ostensibly over corruption allegations, analysts said it was still too early to say which path Mr Shoigu would follow. There has been much speculation about his plans, but the news that Mr Shoigu has appointed long-time aide Yury Sadovenko to head the ministry’s administration suggests that a transition is already under way behind the scenes.

Analysts told The Moscow Times that Mr Shoigu faces many challenges, as years of underinvestment and corruption has eaten away at the forces’ battle-worthiness. In its current state, the army is capable of fighting only short, relatively small-scale skirmishes, like the brief August 2008 conflict with Georgia, but not a prolonged war, says Alexander Khramchikhin, deputy director of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis.

Mr Serdyukov’s modernising reforms have stalled, leaving the military in limbo between its past as a large conscription force and its future, most likely as a professional one.

Mr Serdyukov, who became defence minister in 2007, was responsible for carrying out major reforms that were to transform the Soviet-era military into a more modern fighting force.

Russia is one of the few G20 countries with a conscription army, though reforms under Mr Serdyukov reduced obligatory service from two years to one. He also reduced the size of the army considerably, making painful cuts to ranks of middle officers and generals, and simplified a tangled bureaucracy.

Dramatic increases to the military’s budget in recent years have helped provide troops with new weapons, raise salaries and improve housing. “In many ways the reforms Serdyukov launched, particularly the massive recapitalisation of Russia’s military equipment, are still in their infancy,” says Nicholas de Larrinaga, Europe editor at Jane’s Defence Weekly.

Mr Shoigu is the first defence minister in more than a decade to hold the rank of general. Widely respected and popular, he served as emergency situations minister from 1994 until earlier this year, when he was appointed governor of the Moscow region. “Shoigu comes with a reputation as a strong administrator, but his position on reform is less clear,” says De Larrinaga.

Mr Khramchikhin predicts Mr Shoigu will adopt a policy of “trial and error” because he has no military philosophy to guide him.

James Nixey, an analyst at Chatham House, believes Mr Shoigu might look to build a large, Soviet-style military, given his fierce loyalty to President Vladimir Putin – who has often bemoaned the loss of the Soviet Union’s “great power” status. “Clearly, there is a sort of tension between the need to be a great, large force versus a modern, technologically equipped force that is capable of dealing with current security issues,” he says.

But De Larrinaga thinks that Mr Shoigu will press ahead with reforms initiated under Mr Serdyukov, also a Putin appointee: “It is likely that Shoigu will continue where Serdyukov left off on reform, as Putin has considerable political capital invested in improving the military,” he says.

However, Mr Shoigu fired General Staff chief Nikolai Makarov, a Serdyukov ally, and replaced him with Valery Gerasimov, an opponent of the Serdyukov reforms. This may indicate that Mr Shoigu will try to undo at least part of his predecessor’s legacy.

Whatever Mr Shoigu does, he will have to face the reality of dealing with a defence industry that has failed to keep up with the West. “Much [of the military’s] equipment stocks remain aged and out of date, while the country’s defence industry is inefficient and has suffered from a lack of investment,” says De Larrinaga. “It is incapable of matching the technologies produced in the West.”

Mr Serdyukov was heavily criticised by Russia’s powerful defence industry for proposing that the military buy more foreign-made weapons, including French-built Mistral amphibious assault ships and German tanks.

“Like Serdyukov, Shoigu is not going to buy old equipment,” says Igor Korotchenko, head of the Defence Ministry’s public advisory council, adding that Mr Shoigu would continue to buy limited amounts of foreign equipment for experimentation and to spur domestic manufacturers.

During his presidential campaign in February, Mr Putin announced that Russia’s armed forces would receive more than 400 ballistic missiles, eight submarines and more than 2,300 tanks over the next decade.

Serdyukov scandal

Anatoly Serdyukov was widely loathed among active servicemen, who regarded him as a hostile outsider hellbent on outsourcing and gutting the system. Soldiers and officers mocked his background in the furniture business and as a tax official.

Mr Serdyukov failed to end the vicious, institutionalised practice of “hazing” new conscripts, and the military has also been embarrassed by a string of deadly fires at weapons depots. However, it was a corruption scandal that eventually brought about Mr Serdyukov’s political demise after six years in the post.

Last month, investigators opened five criminal cases in connection with allegedly illegal sales of military property, including sanatoriums, guesthouses and land worth $95.5m (£60m), by Oboronservis, a firm chaired by Mr Serdyukov until last year. This month, police detained a businessman on suspicion of soliciting a three-million rouble bribe to “speed up” a deal for the sale of Oboronservis property in the Moscow region.

Mr Putin indicated that the embezzlement scandal around Oboronservis was the main reason for Mr Serdyukov’s dismissal from his post, although pundits say that conflicts with Putin allies and other law enforcement officials played a role as well.

“Nobody I asked doubted for a second that removing Serdyukov was the correct and sound decision – 100pc of respondents [agreed with the decision],” Grigory Prutyan, an active-duty military doctor, wrote on his blog on Ekho Moskvy’s website.

However, according to Mr Nixey, Mr Serdyukov was not known to be any more corrupt than other ministers.

Timeline

1991 Mr Shoigu becomes head of the Rescue Corps, which was then given more responsibilities and later renamed the Ministry of Emergency Situations.

1999 Working as minister of emergency situations, he is presented with Russia’s most prestigious state award: Hero of the Russian Federation.

2000 Becomes co-chairman of the United Russia party. He also leads the evacuation and subsequent reconstruction of the flooded city of Lensk.

2003 Awarded the military rank of army general, and collects many other honorary titles including the Order of St Andrew the Apostle.

2012 Appointed Moscow Region governor by Mr Putin in May after his candidacy was unanimously approved by the Moscow Region Duma.

2012 After four months as governor, appointed defence minister, replacing Anatoly Serdyukov, a former furniture store executive.

The Quote

Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation:

“The post of defence minister must be filled by a person who will be able to augment the positive results achieved in the armed forces’ dynamic development, and to guarantee the fulfilment of the state defence order and of the grandiose plans to modernise the armed forces.”

Curriculum Vitae

Birthplace: Tuva (South Siberia)

Age: 57

Rank: Army General

Career: Mr Shoigu became poular when, as minister for emergency situations, he attended every fire or flood over an eight-year period to meet the people affected. Six months ago he became the Moscow Region governor.